CLIMATE READY ESTUARIES
2010 PROGRESS REPORT
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CLIMATE READY ESTUARIES PARTNERS, 2009-2010
Puget
Sound
Partnership
Columbia
River Estuary
P«rlner»hlp *
SAN FRANCISCO
ESTUARY
PARTNERSHIP
bay restoration commission
CLIMATE READY
ESTUARI ES
v>EPA
EOJ/ l
IHKATAOUA tiCION
Partnership
LuTO
Albermarle-Pamlico National Estuary Program (APNEP)
''LT Barnegat Bay Partnership (BBP)
J^r Casco Bay Estuary Partnership (CBEP)
Charlotte Harbor National Estuary Program (CHNEP)
Indian River Lagoon National Estuary Program (IRLNEP)
Long Island Sound Study (LISS)
RiverEsiuiiry Lower Columbia River Estuary Partnership (LCREP)
Partnership for the Delaware Estuary (PDE)
diip Piscataqua Region Estuaries Partnership (PREP)
Puget Sound Partnership (PSP)
San Francisco Estuary Partnership (SEEP)
Santa Monica Bay Restoration Commission (SMBRC)
Sarasota Bay Estuary Program (SBEP)
Tampa Bay Estuary Program (TBEP)
Massachusetts Bays Program (MBP)
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION.... .. 1
PARTNER ACCOMPLISHMENTS.
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTS.
STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT.
CLIMATE CHANGE INDICATORS AND MONITORING 13
ADAPTATION PLANNING.... .. 16
PLANNED PARTNER ACTIVITIES... ...20
CRE PARTNER WEBSITES 22
PROGRAM CONTACTS 23
w w w. e p a. g ov/c re
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This document may be downloaded from the Climate Ready Estuaries website at:
www.epa.gov/cre/downloads/2010-CRE-Progress-Report.pdf
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INTRODUCTION
Estuaries and other coastal systems are particularly
vulnerable to many projected effects of climate change,
including erosion and land loss from rising seas, altered
frequencies and volume of precipitation, and more-intense
storm events. These effects will change our coastlines,
affecting the people and species that inhabit them. The
likelihood of these risks necessitates that actions be taken
now to help coastal communities adapt.
Climate Ready Estuaries (CRE) is a partnership between
the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the
National Estuary Programs (NEPs) to build capacity among
coastal managers to improve the resilience of coastal
areas to the impacts of climate change. CRE provides tools
and assistance to help NEPs and coastal communities in
their efforts to:
Accomplishments at a Glance
Partnered with four new NEPs in 2010
Distributed more than $450,000 to the
Partners through start-up grants, which
have been matched 1:1
Provided more than $850,000 in direct
technical assistance to Partners
Conducted expert elicitation workshops
in support of vulnerability assessment
efforts for two NEPs
Developed climate change indicators
for two NEPs
CRE projects continue to be highlighted
in domestic and international circles
Held Partners' workshop in July 2010
Assess climate change vulnerabilities
Engage and educate stakeholders
Develop and implement adaptation strategies
Share lessons learned with other coastal managers
This document focuses on the accomplishments of the existing CRE Partners. This report complements the 2009
CRE Progress Report (http://www.epa.gov/cre/downloads/2009-CRE-Progress-Report.pdf); together they
provide a summary on the design and accomplishments of CRE to date.
Over the past year, CRE and its NEP Partners have become increasingly involved in climate change
adaptation efforts across the country and are at the cutting edge of this field. EPA has continued to provide
targeted support to NEPs through grants and technical assistance, access to key resources, and tools through
the CRE Web site and Coastal Toolkit. EPA has also facilitated collaboration and communication among NEP
Partners and other federal, state, regional, and local organizations.
The following "Partner Accomplishments" section presents activities of the 11 NEPs that received start-up
grants and/or direct technical assistance in 2008 and 2009. Details on the four new 2010 Partners are
provided in the "Planned Partner Activities" section.
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I
CRE Recognition
The White House Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) recognized CRE for its work in helping
resource managers to reduce their vulnerability to climate change effects.
The CEQ Climate Change Adaptation Task Force released a Progress Report outlining progress
to date and recommendations of key components to include in a national strategy on climate change
adaptation. The purpose of the Task Force is to develop federal recommendations for adapting to
climate change impacts both domestically and internationally. CRE was cited as a good example of a
federal program helping to facilitate adaptation at the local level.
More information on the Climate Change Adaptation Task Force is available at:
http://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/eop/ceq/initiatives/adaptation
The Task Force Progress Report is available at:
http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ceq/lnteragency-Climate-Change-
Adaptation- Progress- Report.pdf
PARTNER ACCOMPLISHMENTS
CRE Partners were involved in a variety of climate change adaptation efforts over the past year. Partner
projects involved activities related to assessing vulnerability to climate change, engaging key stakeholders,
development of climate change indicators and monitoring plans, and adaptation planning. The following
section provides detailed descriptions of selected accomplishments for different Partners, organized
according to the type of activities.
Vulnerability Assessments
Assessing the vulnerability of an estuary to climate change is an important step in the adaptation planning
process. Many CRE Partners have undertaken this step in order to identify habitats and resources of
concern.
Piscataqua Region Estuaries Partnership
Ongoing development in New England
watersheds has increased the area of impervious
surfaces such as roads, roofs, and parking lots, exacerbating run-off. Existing
stormwater drainage systems, including under-road culverts, were designed
according to old standards that do not account for increasing storm intensity
and population growth. In March 2010, the Piscataqua Region Estuaries
Partnership (PREP) completed a study (The Oyster River Culvert Analysis
Project) assessing the capacity of existing road culverts in the Oyster River
watershed to convey expected peak flows resulting from several climate
change and population growth scenarios. PREP hired a technical team to
identify specific road/stream-crossing culverts that might be particularly
PISCATAQUA REGION
Estuaries
Partnership
CLIMATE READY ESTUARIES 2010 PROGRESS REPORT
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vulnerable to failure under the scenarios. The purpose of the analysis was to provide decision makers with
information on how to prioritize culvert replacements and how to update design standards to account for
climate change. The project raised awareness among local policy makers about the need to integrate
climate change impacts into infrastructure planning, and demonstrated the adaptive potential of low-impact
development.
The PREP study used a Geographic Information System (GIS) watershed model to analyze how specific
culverts responded to several climate change and land use scenarios. The first step in the methodology
was collecting data on culvert capacity, vegetation cover, slope, soils, permeability, roads, and land use.
Next, the PREP technical team estimated run-off and peak flow rates under both current and projected
precipitation and development patterns. PREP developed several scenarios with different projected
development and climate change futures for use in the model. The PREP technical team then reverse-
engineered culverts to determine their present capacity and the required capacity for accommodating peak
flow in each scenario. Using these data, the team ranked individual culverts according to vulnerability and
safety issues in order to provide decision makers with a prioritized schedule for planning culvert upgrades.
The team has been communicating these results to transportation officials at state and local levels to inform
future planning.
PREP's Oyster River project provides a reliable methodology for coastal communities to identify vulnerable
drainage system components. In addition, the analysis demonstrated that implementing low-impact
development techniques in the watershed significantly reduces the number of culverts projected to be
undersized for future extreme precipitation events.
The PREP vulnerability assessment can be found at:
http://www.prep.unh.edu/resources/pdf/oyster_river_culvert-prep-10.pdf
PREP Oyster River Culvert Mapping Analysis
FALL A1 Fi Comparison of the Buildout Scenarios, 25yr Return Period
Climate
MAP KEY
^^Oyster River Watershed Boundary (HUC12 Def) 1st Order Streams
NH DOT Roads 2nd Order Streams
NH Town Boundaries 3rd Order Streams
4th Order Streams
Result Position
BUILDOUT -LID
w
Replace Culvert?
3 NO
3 YES
Spatial display of undersized culverts for all land-use scenarios, for the SRES
Alfi climate-changed 25-year precipitation.
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Climate Change and the
Delaware Estuary
Three Case Studies in
Vulnerability Assessment and Adeptaton Planning
A Publication or ih*
Part rim hip tor the Qeijworc E
A Nation*! Estuary Program
Partnership for the Delaware Estuary
A complex balance of habitats and living resources characterizes the Delaware Estuary
watershed. Tidal marsh habitats line much of the estuary and play a pivotal role in preserving
water quality, preventing flooding, and supporting fish and wildlife species. However, the
health of these tidal marshes appears to be compromised over much of the region, and
climate change may worsen existing stressors on the estuary.
In May 2010, the Partnership for the Delaware Estuary (PDE) released
"Climate Change and the Delaware Estuary: Three Case Studies
in Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning," a report
assessing the vulnerabilities and adaptation options for three key resources
in the Delaware Estuary: tidal wetlands, drinking water, and bivalve
shellfish. PDE chose to assess the vulnerabilities of these key resources
as examples of habitat resources, water resources, and living resources,
respectively.
PDE's vulnerability assessment involved three main steps: (1) projecting the
Delaware Estuary's future climate (2) assessing how these climate changes
will affect natural resources in the estuary and (3) proposing adaptation
options to minimize the damages resulting from these impacts. In each
of the three case studies, PDE asked experts to identify and prioritize their concerns related to expected
changes in climate and to similarly identify and
rate adaptation options.
PDE obtained up-to-date and locally relevant
projections for expected changes in physical and
chemical conditions between the present and
2100. Scientists and managers with expertise
in each of the three case study resources next
identified and ranked their concerns related to
these expected changes, and were asked to
suggest potential adaptation options. Information
for this assessment was gathered in a workshop
in September 2008, a climate session at the
Delaware Estuary Science Conference in January
2009, in workgroup meetings, and through
surveys. PDE conducted a literature review to
augment the information contributed by the experts
and compiled this information into a concise
inventory of potential vulnerabilities and adaptation
measures.
The geographical coverage of 1 3 habitat types (see legend)
in an area of southwestern New Jersey at present (1 980s NWI
data) and as predicted by SLAMM in 2050 and 2100.
PDE SLAMM Modeling Analysis
Legend
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p~1 irregufcily Fkw-SM U
Sea Lew* Affected MwtNM Mritl U
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4 CLIMATE READY ESTUARIES 2010 PROGRESS REPORT
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Survey methods and a risk assessment
approach were then used to gauge relative
levels of concern (for vulnerabilities) and
effectiveness (for adaptation tactics) by
additional resource-specific experts in the
broader science and management community.
Potential vulnerabilities and adaptation
options were then considered in the context of
ecosystem goods and services (natural capital).
Tidal wetlands are a unique feature of the
Photo credit: Katy Maher, ICF International
Delaware Estuary, which contains the largest
freshwater tidal prism in the world. With technical assistance from contracted experts, the Sea Level Affecting
Marshes Model (SLAMM) was applied to project how the spatial extent of different coastal habitats will
change as sea levels rise (see figure on page 4). In addition to significant acreage losses, PDE expects to see
shifts in community species composition, desiccation of marsh sediments, and change in habitat support.
To address these vulnerabilities, the case study identified six management tactics as potential adaptation
strategies in tidal wetlands: watershed flow management, strategic retreat, structure setbacks, creation of
buffer lands, living shorelines, and building dikes, bulkheads, and tide gates.
Water consumption by municipalities, industry, and electric utilities places multiple demands on drinking
water supplies in the Delaware River, Bay, and tributaries. Key vulnerabilities for drinking water include
saltwater intrusion into aquifers and freshwater habitats, inundation and damage to water infrastructure, and
decreased availability in the watershed. The case study found that forest protection in the upper Delaware
Basin is the single most important action needed to minimize degradation of drinking water quantity and
quality. Building more water storage capacity, such as reservoirs, represents one potential adaptation priority
for drinking water. The report also recommended enhanced monitoring and modeling of water resources.
Bivalve shellfish are ecologically important in the Delaware Estuary, and species such as oysters contribute
significantly to the local economy. Bivalve populations have been in widespread decline in both the
watershed and tidal estuary due to disease, overharvesting, habitat loss, and water quality degradation.
Six aspects of bivalve health were examined for vulnerability to climate change: physiological health,
reproductive success, change in habitat support, interactions with invasive species, population productivity,
and shift in species composition or ranges. The assessment found that while some species may experience
longer growing seasons, climate impacts such as changes in salinity, precipitation, and sea level rise are
likely to contribute to the decline in many bivalve populations in the region (especially freshwater species).
PDE identified several priority adaptation options for shellfish: shell planting for oysters, propagating all
bivalves and seeding new reefs/beds, restoring riparian buffers for freshwater mussels, managing water flow
to minimize effects offloading on freshwater mussels and salinity on oysters and freshwater tidal bivalves,
and maintaining water quality for all bivalves.
A common thread across the three case studies is the need for increased research and monitoring in
order to better understand climate change impacts and their effects on the natural resources and systems
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in the Delaware Estuary. Improving data will continue to be a key priority in helping to further adaptation
planning. Education was also identified as a key priority through this assessment: education of resource
managers and decision makers in particular, but for all stakeholders in the region as well. PDE is currently
working on implementing the recommendations in this report.
The PDE vulnerability assessment report can be found at:
http://delawareestuary.org/pdf/Climate/Climate%20Change%20and%20the%20Delaware%20
Estuary_PDE-10-01.pdf
Massachusetts Bays Program
The Massachusetts Bays Program (MBP) has been working with EPA's Office of Research
and Development (ORD) to conduct an ecological vulnerability assessment with the goal of
providing place-based information on the potential implications of climate change for estuarine ecosystems
in a form that will enable managers to undertake adaptation planning. An expert elicitation workshop
was held in April 2010 to assess the relative effects of climate-stressor interactions on two key salt marsh
ecosystem processes using the Jeffrey's Neck Salt
Marsh in Ipswich, Massachusetts, as an example
location. The processes examined were sediment
retention in salt marshes (as it relates to the ability
of salt marshes to accrete and migrate inland as sea
levels rise) and salt marsh community interactions (with1
a focus on plant community structure and the nesting
habitat of the saltmarsh sharp-tailed sparrow). Experts
were divided into two breakout groups to consider
each ecosystem process separately.
This assessment used a highly structured workshop to
improve the understanding of the sensitivity of salt marsh systems across a range of plausible scenarios of
climate change in a single, focused setting. The expert elicitation workshop also identified management
adaptation strategies that support resilience to the potential impacts of climate change in salt marsh
systems, within the context of the uncertainties of timing and intensity. The specific goals were to gather
qualitative judgments of the assembled experts regarding (1) the relative influences of physical and
ecological variables that regulate each process and are sensitive to climate and human stressors, (2) the
relative sensitivities of each process to key stressors under baseline conditions and two future climate
change scenarios, and (3) the degree of confidence in judgments about these relationships. Using this
information, this project will produce a series of reports that seek to improve the understanding of the
sensitivity of particular habitats and ecosystem processes to the projected impacts of climate change,
improve the ability to identify adaptation management strategies that mitigate these impacts, and test the
applicability of an expert elicitation approach to this type of analysis.
Photo credit: Jeremy Martinich, U.S. EPA
CLIMATE READY ESTUARIES 2010 PROGRESS REPORT
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ESTUARY
PARTNERSHIP
SAN FRANCISCO San Francisco Estuary Partnership
The San Francisco Estuary Partnership (SFEP) also collaborated with EPA ORD to conduct
an ecological vulnerability assessment, using a process similar to that employed in MBP's
assessment. SFEP held an expert elicitation style workshop in March 2010 to assess the
vulnerability of ecosystem processes in two estuarine habitats. SFEP decided to focus on
sediment retention in salt marshes and community interactions in mudflats. Sediment
supply is a key issue in the San Francisco Estuary, as the supply is declining due to changes in land use
and water management. Supply of sediment to salt marshes will be an increasingly important priority for
the region, especially when considering potential climate change impacts. Similarly, the trophic dynamics
of mudflats in the region will be a priority management area, as changing inundation and sediment
conditions could affect availability of habitat for key species, such as shorebirds. The results from the MBP
and SFEP workshops will inform adaptation planning for both NEPs, and will likely serve as examples for
other communities.
INDIAN
RIVER
LAQOOn
PROGRAM
Satellite Beach Topography (Draft)
Indian River Lagoon NEP
The City of Satellite Beach, Florida, is a prime example of a coastal community at risk from
sea level rise. The densely populated City is on a barrier island, and is 98% developed.
In order to understand the
vulnerabilities the City would face as
sea levels rise, Indian River Lagoon
NEP (IRLNEP) assisted the City on a project designed
to assess municipal vulnerability to rising sea level and
initiate the planning process to properly prepare for
impacts. The results of this vulnerability assessment
are summarized in the report "Municipal adaptation
to sea-level rise: City of Satellite Beach,
Florida." Using a CIS platform, IRLNEP and the City
constructed a three-dimensional model of Satellite
Beach. To emulate three dimensions, landscape
elevation was added to the base map using Light
Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) and associated aerial
photographs. The assessment also used the LiDAR
data to illustrate the cumulative percent of land
area as a function of elevation, and to estimate the
extent of municipal submergence associated with a
particular rise in sea level. The assessment identified
critical assets in the City in order to determine which
sea level rise scenarios would affect key buildings,
City of Satellite Beach topography based upon LiDAR data
facilities, and Services. acquired by Florida Division of Emergency Management.
Souiw FDEMUOAR
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Results indicate submergence of about 5% of the landscape under a 2 ft (0.6 m) rise, 25% under a 4 ft (1.2
m) rise, and 52% under a 6 ft (1.8 m) rise in sea level. The City will work to address these projected impacts
through adaptation planning and management. As an initial step, the Comprehensive Planning Advisory
Board, a volunteer citizen committee serving as the City's local planning authority, has approved a series of
updates and revisions to the City's Comprehensive Plan. If approved by the City Council, the amendments
will provide a legal basis for implementing an adaptive management plan and specific actions designed to
mitigate the City's vulnerability to sea level rise.
The IRLNEP/City of Satellite Beach vulnerability assessment report is available at:
http://spacecoastclimatechange.eom/documents/l 00730_CSB_CRE_Final_Report.pdf
Lessons Learned From Vulnerability Assessment Efforts
Vulnerability assessments can help to identify key concerns for an estuary and may also assist in identifying
information needs. General lessons learned for these efforts include:
Recognize that non-climate drivers, such as development, pollution, and population growth, often
exacerbate climate change vulnerabilities.
When working with limited data, use readily available scientific best professional judgment to help
support decision making. Surveying both local and regional experts and stakeholders can assist in
building knowledge, as they have access to some of the most up-to-date information and research.
Focus on emergency and disaster management, which is one area where NEPs can work with local
and state governments to incorporate climate change issues. Vulnerability and risk assessment can help
identify areas that need targeted adaptation that also supports and uses emergency planning experts
and resources.
Collaborate with and use local partners, such as universities, non-profits, Sea Grants, and National
Estuarine Research Reserves to fill information gaps.
Determine scope - vulnerability assessments do not necessarily have to be broad in scope. Focusing on
the vulnerability of a specific resource, such as horseshoe crabs in the Delaware Estuary or culverts in
the Oyster River Watershed, may generate momentum for adaptation.
Stakeholder Engagement
All CRE Partners are involved in some type of stakeholder engagement effort, working to increase
communication, outreach, and education on climate change impacts and adaptation. NEPs often focus
these efforts on a variety of key audiences, depending on regionally specific needs. In particular, several
Partners have been involved with activities targeted toward the general public. These efforts often work to
distill and communicate technical information to coastal communities, including information on local climate
impacts, risks, and potential adaptation solutions. Stakeholder engagement projects may also be directed
toward policy makers or other key decision makers in the community. Some of the activities undertaken by
CRE Partners relating to communication, outreach, and education on climate change are described in more
detail below.
CLIMATE READY ESTUARIES 2010 PROGRESS REPORT
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Barnegat Bay Partnership
The Barnegat Bay Partnership (BBP) has sought a multi-faceted approach to
JjARNEGAT DAY develop a climate adaptation strategy for its estuary. BBP's core CRE goal is
13 .* i-» m 'fc, T T*
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Information on the BBP/JC NERR climate change conference is available at:
http://www.jcnerr.org/education/coastaltraining/climatechange_conference.html
Information on the JC NERR Coastal Training Program is available at:
http://www.jcnerr.org/education/coastaltraining/index.html
Albemarle-Pamlico NEP
The diverse populations of inland, coastal, and barrier island residents within the
Albemarle-Pamlico Watershed share different perceptions of the effects of sea level
rise and population growth in their communities, ranging from limited understanding
or knowledge to highly informed of potential impacts on the environment, economy,
and culture. The Albemarle-Pamlico NEP (APNEP) set out to understand the range
of perceptions about how climate change and sea level rise will affect the estuary,
and test ideas for effective outreach to different communities. The Albemarle-Pamlico Conservation and
Communities Collaborative (AP3C), in partnership with APNEP, hosted seven public listening sessions to
hear residents' concerns about sea level rise and population growth, elicit their ideas about solutions, and
provide recommendations to improve future public outreach and education projects.
More than 100 residents attended the sessions, representing a broad array of backgrounds and knowledge
about the issues. AP3C and APNEP produced a report, "Public Listening Sessions: Sea Level Rise and
Population Growth in North Carolina," describing the design, findings, and recommendations from the
sessions. Their principal recommendations address three issues: (1) outreach, (2) working with local officials,
and (3) addressing sea level rise impacts in the watershed. The report recommends training outreach
volunteers how to communicate the issues' importance to coastal plain residents, providing additional
volunteers to allow for more direct access (especially to community and elected officials), and selecting
outreach volunteers with more capacity and resources (including stipends) to do the outreach. Very few local
officials attended the sessions, and participants highlighted the need to provide education to local officials
on the impacts of sea level rise and engage local officials in discourse with the public on these issues.
Developing informal and effective mechanisms to present sea level rise and coastal flooding maps to local
officials would be an important step in engaging that audience. Addressing sea level rise impacts will require
action in a number of areas, though APNEP can provide particular assistance in education and outreach to
various audiences. Key audiences that will be important to address include underprivileged communities,
local officials, schools, and coastal communities. AP3C and APNEP concluded that future outreach efforts
should include a more detailed presentation and discussion of the sea level rise issue.
The listening sessions report also suggested several next steps: (1) provide job training to residents of the
coastal plain, in particular targeting lower income residents, to provide skills to build green infrastructure
and provide other sea level rise adaptation services; (2) provide contracting and certification assistance to
coastal plain residents, so that they can access state and federal funds for sea level rise adaptation and
mitigation projects; and (3) promote incentive programs to pay coastal residents, in particular farmers, for
managing their land in a way that allows for wetlands to migrate inland.
10 CLIMATE READY ESTUARIES 2010 PROGRESS REPORT
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The report on the APNEP listening sessions is available at:
http://www.apnep.org/pages/PublicListeningSessionsReport.pdf
& fitsi/" AfiA
'
PARTNERSHIP
CLIMATE CHANGE
Casco Bay Estuary Partnership
The Casco Bay Estuary Partnership (CBEP) identified a critical unmet
need in the Casco Bay watershed to deliver reliable and useful
information about climate change and its effects on natural resources
to key local decision makers. Informal discussions with CBEP partners, especially those involved with local
government and community planning, suggested that key decisions are often made without any awareness
of long-term implications with respect to climate change.
CBEP has produced a report, "Climate Change in the Casco Bay
Watershed: Past, Present, and Future," that describes climate change
projections for the Casco Bay region. As a scientific resource for local
citizens and officials, this report describes how the climate of Casco Bay's
watershed has changed over the past century and is likely to change in the
future. CBEP has also worked to identify related adaptation efforts underway
in the region and the state.
To build local support for adaptation, CBEP set out to develop a climate
change stakeholder outreach plan targeting local decision makers and
integrating consideration of ecosystem resilience into broader messages
about climate change. These outreach and stakeholder engagement efforts
will help inform the development of a climate change adaptation plan for
the estuary. Many Maine organizations and agencies are already engaged in efforts to spur local decision
makers to take climate change into consideration in their day-to-day and long-term planning. CBEP thus
sought to identify the estuary's unique
"niche" in adaptation outreach. CBEP
met with stakeholders and spoke with
members of potential target audiences to
define information needs and evaluate best
pathways for communication on climate
change adaptation.
CBEP identified two key audiences for
targeted outreach efforts: the land
conservation community and the water
resources and water infrastructure
communities. Both audiences have been
introduced to climate issues via professional
Photo credit: Katy Maher, ICF International orga nizationS Ond Other SOUrCCS, but CBEP
realized that practical efforts to incorporate
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climate change into their operations had hardly begun. Many land trusts are small, largely volunteer-led
organizations with limited planning capacity. Similar constraints exist within the water resources and water
infrastructure communities, where key decisions about water resources are often made with little time by
municipal staff to think about the long term.
Subsequent efforts will focus on working with these communities to integrate awareness of projected
changes in climate into their activities. This process entails: (1) creating networks within the two main target
audiences, (2) creating communication mechanisms to sustain those networks into the future, and (3)
developing and communicating approaches to climate planning that are feasible for small organizations.
CBEP plans to host a facilitated meeting for each target audience. The goal of the meetings will be to begin
building, for each target audience, a community that will work together to address vulnerabilities to climate
change and to allow that community to identify its own needs and strategies. The meetings will provide an
opportunity for CBEP to begin delivering some of its key messages to each audience, while at the same time
providing an opportunity for the members of the land conservation and water resources communities to
communicate to CBEP what information or resources they need in order to adapt to climate change.
The CBEP climate change report can be found at:
http://www.cascobay.usm.maine.edu/pdfs/climate_change_in_casco_bay.pdf
Other Stakeholder Engagement Efforts
Charlotte Harbor NEP (CHNEP) conducted several
public workshops using interactive exercises to
engage the public in helping to consider and prioritize
vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies. The outcomes
of these workshops informed the development of the
Punta Gorda Adaptation Plan. The Long Island Sound
Study (LISS) similarly supported a series of workshops to
discuss local climate change vulnerability and options photo credit: Ka(yMaher
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Lessons Learned From Stakeholder Engagement Efforts
Each CRE Partner that has undertaken stakeholder engagement activities has developed its own lessons
learned on locally specific issues and key audiences. General lessons learned for these efforts include:
Leverage existing efforts. Some regions have many different organizations already working on climate
change and adaptation, including work on acquiring data/information, stakeholder engagement, and
education/outreach. Several NEPs have learned the value in leveraging these existing activities and
organizations through partnerships and division of labor on different efforts.
Focus on local issues. It can be more effective to communicate about local impacts to communities
(e.g., flooding, drought) rather than tackling the broader issue of climate change. Presenting local
evidence of climate change (e.g., changes in seasonal events or animal behavior, local projections of
wetland loss) to local officials and the general public is often a useful approach to build support for
adaptation.
Link climate change adaptation messages to clean water supply and stormwater drainage. This can be
an effective way to engage local decision makers, as constituents are increasingly concerned about
these issues.
Target entities most responsible for construction and maintenance of public infrastructure (e.g.,
municipalities, counties or regional authorities) first to encourage greater willingness to engage on the
impacts of sea level rise due to the significant fiscal implication of infrastructure loss or damage.
Conduct meetings or phone calls with key stakeholders to help identify what stakeholders are already
working on and their key needs for undertaking climate change adaptation. For some NEPs, these
meetings revealed that stakeholders need specific targeted technical assistance on adaptation
techniques rather than data or information on impacts.
Climate Change Indicators and Monitoring
Several NEPs focused their efforts on the development of climate change indicators and monitoring
strategies. The purpose of climate change indicators is to measure the effects of natural and manmade
stressors on a system and to convey scientific information on the current status of conditions and on changes
and trends in these conditions overtime.
Long Island Sound Study
'n order to better understand current and future changes in the region, LISS
determined that a key first step was to develop a set of climate change indicators
and a plan for monitoring those changes. The NEP recognized early on that developing the capacity to track
these changes would be critical for the success of future adaptation strategies.
LISS worked to develop a systematic process for identifying and evaluating candidate indicators, in which
it considered the lessons learned from other programs and consulted a number of documents that provide
recommendations for developing environmental indicators. Most of these documents present some form of
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the pressure-state-response framework for selecting indicators, which LISS adapted for use in developing a
list of climate change indicators. The five-step process that LISS undertook for indicator identification and
evaluation is illustrated in the flow chart below.
Identify existing LISS Review published &
environmental indicators unpublished studies
L i J L i
Step 4. Identify Candidate
Climate Change Indicators
Step 5. Evaluate Indicators
Relevant to estuary management goals?
Sensitive to climate change driver(s)?
Distinguish climate change effects?
Measurable?
Measurable at multiple sites?
Data availability?
Representative of regional ecosystems,
biological communities, and/or processes?
Feasibility?
LISS is now working with technical committees in Connecticut and New York to prioritize the list of indicators
identified through this process/ test pilot indicators/ and/ in the longer term/ establish a Long-lsland-Sound-
wide monitoring network.
o\.QTTE HAD
Charlotte Harbor NEP
To build upon climate change and disaster preparedness work already underway
by the Southwest Florida Regional Planning Council (SWFRPC), CHNEP worked to
develop information to better enable federal, state, regional, and local agencies to
plan for future climate change impacts to coastal resources and communities.
CHNEP set out to develop a list of three to five climate change indicators for its estuary and a monitoring
plan to measure changes in those indicators. CHNEP sought to build on its previous work to address
climate change (including a vulnerability assessment) and incorporate climate indicators into its ongoing
monitoring efforts. The climate change indicator selection process began with the development of a large
list of potential indicators, many of which were conceived as part of ongoing environmental indicator
development efforts in Charlotte Harbor.
CHNEP then created a survey to facilitate stakeholder evaluation of this broad list of 172 indicators. The
survey asked stakeholders to rank individual indicators on a scale of relevance to climate change (highly
relevant, relevant, of interest, not relevant, or not enough information to know). The survey results and
a CHNEP sub-committee helped to narrow the list of candidate indicators down to 18. CHNEP Policy
Committee and Management Committee members were asked to complete a second survey to further
narrow the list to five climate change indicators, which resulted in the following proposed indicators:
changes in precipitation patterns, sea level rise, water temperature, phenology, and coastal erosion rates.
The NEP then developed short summaries describing the indicator, the available data products, data gaps,
and targets for each of these five indicators.
14 CLIMATE READY ESTUARIES 2010 PROGRESS REPORT
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In fall 2010, the CHNEP Management Committee approved five climate change indicators: changes to
precipitation trend/patterns, including extreme precipitation; sea level rise; water temperature; phenology;
and habitat migration.
The CHNEP environmental indicators report is available at:
http://www.chnep.org/projects/climate/ClimateChangelndicatorclimateaddendum_l 0-25-10.pdf
The CHNEP vulnerability assessment reports are available at:
http://www.chnep.org/projects/climate/VulnerabilityAssessment2-19-10.pdf
http://www.chnep.org/projects/climate/ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment.pdf
Lessons Learned From Climate Change
Indicators and Monitoring Efforts
The development of climate change indicators for estuaries
is still an evolving field, but there have already been a
number of lessons learned from the CRE Partners:
Identify desired climate change information outputs
prior to the beginning of the indicator selection
process. For example, determine whether any outreach
materials will be needed to communicate information photocredit: Jeremy Martinich< u-s-EPA
on indicators, or how indicators will need to be incorporated into different types of management
documents.
Consider conducting a climate change vulnerability assessment prior to developing climate change
indicators. A vulnerability assessment may be useful in order to ensure that the candidate list of
indicators is comprehensive and to identify variables that are indicative of consequences rather
than drivers.
Explore the development of conceptual ecological models (CEMs) of climate change prior to developing
indicators. CEMs are an excellent way to organize thought and visually portray complex relationships.
CEMs are organized in a hierarchical way among drivers, stressors, ecological effects, key attributes,
and measures. The measures point the way to key indicators of climate change.
Draw up a universe of candidate indicators from which to consider. Identify any factors that are
uncertain (such as the direct tie to climate change or available monitoring), as these factors will be
important to consider later. Additional candidates can be added to the list as the process evolves.
Obtain as much public and scientific input as possible on selecting a subset of indicators for more
intense review. Citizens will help to keep the list relevant to public interests.
Recognize that regional efforts that cross state lines often require additional involvement from
government agencies and other key stakeholders. The involvement of key local, state, and regional
organizations is important during the initial stages of any indicator development process.
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Adaptation Planning
Coastal resource managers can reduce climate change risks and improve resilience by developing and
implementing adaptation plans. Adaptation plans are linked to management goals detailed in each NEP's
Comprehensive Conservation and Management Plan (CCMP), such as maintaining water quality of marshes
and wetlands, protecting coastal development, preserving habitat, or controlling invasive species
: . I O 1
Sound
Mudy
\ IM I. ..... h |l I. . r.
Long Island Sound Study
LISS was interested in promoting local efforts to prepare and implement coastal
adaptation plans in communities along Long Island Sound. In particular, the NEP
wanted to better understand the division of responsibilities between federal, state,
local, and private sector groups to more effectively involve and respond to the needs of different parts of
the community.
LISS, ICLEI-Local Governments for
Sustainability, the Town of Groton,
Connecticut, and the Connecticut
Department of Environmental Protection
(DEP) supported three workshops to train
and educate government officials at all levels
for climate change adaptation in a small city.
LISS, ICLEI, and Connecticut DEP formed a
partnership with the Town of Groton to develop
a Climate adaptation plan. The effort WaS Photo credit: Mark Parker, Connecticut DEP
designed to complement the Town's ongoing
sustainability and development planning and to engage representatives from federal, state, and municipal
governments in adaptation planning. The workshops were intended to identify and gain local support for the
specific steps that Groton (or a similar city) would need to take to adapt to climate change and clarify roles
of citizens as well as local, state, and federal levels of government to implement the plan. The workshops
were also designed to test how stakeholders would respond to various presentations from local and national
technical experts and planners, as a potential model for other local governments and adaptation initiatives.
The first workshop was held in January 2010 and included eight presentations on projected climate change
impacts to the Connecticut coast, coastal hazards, and adaptation responses at local and state levels. The
second workshop in March included four presentations on vulnerabilities and the potential costs of taking
"no action" versus adaptation actions. It concluded with a guided discussion on selecting adaptation actions
for Groton. The final workshop in June featured presentations on the comparative costs of adaptation based
on ideas generated at the earlier workshop, and a summary of next steps for developing the plan. The
workshops generated several overall conclusions including:
16 CLIMATE READY ESTUARIES 2010 PROGRESS REPORT
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Local acceptance of climate change science and general comfort with the existing model projections
was sufficient for planning actions.
Horizontal communication within agencies at various levelsfor example, between EPA
headquarters and regional officeswas even more of a need than vertical communication
between government levels.
State agencies can provide support to adaptation efforts in addition to helping obtain federal and local
support. For example, Connecticut completed a state park vulnerability assessment, formed an Office
of Long Island Sound Programs Climate Change Group, and succeeded in involving the Department of
Transportation in ongoing efforts at the state level.
Additional broad-application tools are needed and will be developed, including an Adaptation
Resource Toolkit.
Local officials in Groton have agreed to continue the work, and have initiated several actions recommended
from the workshops:
Develop zoning to incentivize development away from coastal hazards.
Use preliminary risk assessment to identify impacts to specific asset sectors.
Pursue additional resources and relationships to support future planning from non-governmental
organizations (e.g., ICLEI) and state (e.g., Connecticut Department of Transportation) and federal
agencies (e.g., Department of Energy).
Use the Plan of Conservation and Development (Connecticut's 10-year comprehensive plan update) to
incorporate "Themes for Resilience" that address climate adaptation.
Raise public awareness of flood-prone areas as part of the FEMA digital mapping update and complete
an outreach strategy for notifications to affected properties.
Pursue inclusion of adaptation curriculum in schools and review school sites in light of adaptation issues.
Engage scientific and conservation organizations, such as The Nature Conservancy, that are working on
similar efforts.
Information on the three Groton workshops is available at:
http://www.icleiusa.org/action-center/planning/climate-adaptation-planning-resources/groton-
connecticut-coastal-climate-adaptation-workshop-presentations
Charlotte Harbor NEP
CHNEP worked in cooperation with SWFRPC to develop an adaptation plan for
the City of Punta Gorda, Florida. The City of Punta Gorda was heavily affected
by Hurricane Charley in 2004, which highlighted the importance of examining
key vulnerabilities and priorities for future planning. The City of Punta Gorda adopted language in its
Comprehensive Plan to address these issues in the Conservation and Coastal Management
Element. Specifically:
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Objective 2.4.2: Address the impact of sea level rise, and seek strategies to combat its effects on the
shoreline of the City.
Policy 2.4.2.1: The City will work with SWFRPC to determine the potential sea level rise impacts on the
Coastal Planning Area.
Measurement: Completion and implementation of developed coastal studies or development of
model scenarios.
The City of Punta Gorda Adaptation Plan was subsequently developed to meet the objectives laid out
in the Comprehensive Plan. CHNEP invited residents and others concerned with issues faced by the City
to help prepare recommendations to respond to changes in the climate using innovative and creative
workshops and online surveys. The City approved the adaptation plan in November 2009; however,
additional steps were needed to implement that plan. The City wanted to ensure continued implementation
of the plan and engage other southwest Florida communities in adaptation planning. This involved
linking CHNEP into other state, regional, and local planning efforts on climate change. As a result of the
Adaptation Plan, the City committed to incorporating the adaptation strategies into the Florida state process
known as the Evaluation and Appraisal Report, which it will complete in 2011.
CHNEP and the City of Punta Gorda worked with the University of Florida (UF) Levin College of Law to
develop specific comprehensive plan language to address climate change adaptation. UF students and
their professors drafted the language, CHNEP ensured that the language incorporated findings from their
previous adaptation work, and the City ensured that the language was practical from its perspective.
CHNEP followed up by hosting a workshop to educate urban planners about the comprehensive plan
language on climate change, strategies such as rolling easements, and new Florida legislation regarding
energy efficiency. Planners received an incentive to attend, in the form of certification maintenance credits
offered by the American Institute of Certified Planners.
Neighboring Lee County has expressed interest in building on the Punta Gorda Adaptation Plan example,
and in January 2010 contracted the SWFRPC to develop the "Lee County Climate Change Resiliency
Strategy," which will identify potential climate change resilience strategies through coordination and
consultation with local government leadership in 39 Lee County departments and divisions. Finally, CHNEP
continues to partner with its host agency, the SWFRPC, to seek funds to develop a Resiliency Strategy
template for the region.
The CHNEP vulnerability assessment reports are available at:
http://www.chnep.org/projects/climate/VulnerabilityAssessment2-19-10.pdf
http://www.chnep.org/projects/climate/ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment.pdf
The City of Punta Gorda Adaptation Plan is available at:
http://www.chnep.org/projects/climate/PuntaGordaAdaptationPlan.pdf
The workshop agenda with the presentations, including the model language, is available at:
http://www.chnep.org/proiects/climate/CRE%20Comp%20Plan-Ordinance%20Workshop.htm
18 CLIMATE READY ESTUARIES 2010 PROGRESS REPORT
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Lessons Learned From Adaptation Planning Efforts
Adaptation plans may contain a wide range of adaptation actions that are designed to reduce adverse
impacts or exploit beneficial opportunities resulting from climate change. Adaptation planning efforts
require coordination and collaboration at many levels. Lessons learned from the CRE Partners include:
Start small. Demonstrating assessment and planning in one innovative community can generate interest
to replicate and build on the effort for a much larger region.
Build adaptation planning into other local, state, and/or federal planning efforts, in order to:
- Ensure that climate change planning becomes a part of routine activities that public officials and
citizens already support, and
- Bring more resources to the effort and more easily achieve consensus.
Incorporate adaptation into restoration efforts already underway. This may be a key management option
for reducing vulnerability to future climate change impacts.
Recognize that small steps do lead to future progress. Initiation of a climate adaptation process in one
place will tend to generate interest and other financial and technical support, often from
unlikely sources.
Practice adaptive management. As new partners join and support fledgling adaptation efforts, process
managers may have to adapt the initial scope and content of their work; often expanding and refocusing
the overall effort to incorporate the interests of these new partners and to ensure their support
for adaptation.
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PLANNED PARTNER ACTIVITIES
In 2010, EPA provided technical assistance and funding for adaptation planning via grant amendments to
seven NEPs, including CHNEP, IRLNEP, LISS, SBEP, Santa Monica Bay Restoration Commission (SMBRC),
Lower Columbia River Estuary Partnership (LCREP), and Puget Sound Partnership (PSP). Four of these seven
NEPs are new to CRE, and are undertaking the following activities:
p ]L i - LCREP is incorporating climate change into the estuary program's CCMP to
River EstuaiT guide climate change adaptation efforts and identify strategies to facilitate
implementation.
I'a r I ii r rsh i \i
PugetSoundPartnership
oirsojnd, our community, our chance
PSP is incorporating climate change adaptation needs into the Puget Sound
2020 Action Agenda strategies and near-term actions that guide regional
recovery activities. PSP is also planning to develop adaptation guidance for
habitat restoration projects and identify climate change indicators for its regional
monitoring program.
SMBRC is investigating the vulnerability of local wetlands to sea level rise, as well
as impacts of precipitation change on the hydrological regime of the wetland and
the watershed. The results of this investigation will inform wetland and watershed
managers' decision making and will be incorporated into the Los Angeles
Regional Collaborative for Climate Action and Sustainability climate action plan.
Timeline of CRE and Partner
Milestones, 2009-2010
LISS
Groton Adaptation
Workshop#2
CHNEP finalized
Punta Gorda
Adaptation Plan
CBEP released
Climate Change in the
Casco Bay Watershed
IRLNEP public
meetings on sea
level rise vulnerability
MBP Expert
Elicitation Workshop
CRE published
2009 CRE Progress
Report
LISS
Groton Adaptation
Workshop #1
PREP released
Oyster River
Culvert Analysis
BBP/JC NERRS
Climate Change
Conference
SFEP Expert
Elicitation
Workshop
APNEP sponsored
North Carolina
Adaptation
Conference
20 CLIMATE READY ESTUARIES 2010 PROGRESS REPORT
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1
SARASOTA BAY
ESTUARY PROGRAM
Restoring Our Rays
SBEP is developing a sea level rise and storm surge visualization tool forSarasota and
Manatee counties to enhance public and stakeholder outreach and education efforts.
Working with Mote Marine Laboratory, SBEP will also develop an adaptation plan that
supports updates to local comprehensive plans for integrating adaptation strategies.
The existing CRE partners receiving funding for 2010 are undertaking projects that aim to implement
adaptation based on previously conducted vulnerability assessments and other work. For example,
CHNEP will work to develop conceptual ecological models to help bridge the gap between vulnerability
assessments and adaptation plans, moving toward the goal of implementing adaptation strategies on the
ground. IRLNEP is applying SLAMM to project losses and gains in coastal habitat types in comparison
with baseline conditions. This information will inform future land-use and conservation plans. LISS will
create an adaptation toolkit for municipal governments to inform adaptation efforts and to follow up on
recommendations from work performed in 2009.
Timeline of CRE
and Partner
Milestones,
2009-2010
2010 Grants and Technical
Assistance Awardees announced:
Charlotte Harbor National
Estuary Program
Indian River Lagoon National
Estuary Program
Long Island Sound Study
Lower Columbia River Estuary
Partnership
TBEP draft handbook
outline developed for
incorporating climate
change into habitat
restoration and protection
| MAY ^^
LISS climate change
indicators and monitoring
plan recommendations
developed
Puget Sound Partnership
Santa Monica Bay Restoration
Commission
Sarasota Bay Estuary Program
JUNE JUL
LISS Groton
PDE released
Adaptation
... . . _ Climate Change
Workshop #3
ana the Delaware
Estuary
CHNEP draft
climate change
indicators
developed
AUG
2010 CRE Partner
Workshop held in
Washington, DC
IRLNEP released
Municipal
Adaptation to Sea-
Level Rise: City of
Satellite Beach,
Florida
TBEP completed
a coastal habitat
vulnerability
assessment
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CRE PARTNER WEBSITES
Albemarle-Pamlico National Estuary Program http://www.apnep.org/
Barnegat Bay Partnership
http://bbp.ocean.edu/
Casco Bay Estuary Partnership
http://www.cascobay.usm.maine.edu/
Charlotte Harbor National Estuary Program http://www.chnep.org/
Indian River Lagoon National Estuary Program http://www.sjrwmd.com/itsyourlagoon/index.html
Long Island Sound Study
http://www.longislandsoundstudy.net/
Lower Columbia River Estuary Partnership
http://www.lcrep.org
Massachusetts Bays Program
http://www.mass.gov/envir/massbays/
Partnership for the Delaware Estuary
http://www.delawareestuary.org/
Piscataqua Region Estuaries Partnership
http://www.prep.unh.edu/
Puget Sound Partnership
http://www.psp.wa.gov/
San Francisco Estuary Partnership
http://www.sfestuary.org/
Santa Monica Bay Restoration Commission http://www.santamonicabay.org/smbay/
Sarasota Bay Estuary Program
http://www.sarasotabay.org/
Tampa Bay Estuary Program
http://www.tbep.org/
For more information on CRE, please visit our website: www.epa.gov/cre
22 CLIMATE READY ESTUARIES 2010 PROGRESS REPORT
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PROGRAM CONTACTS
Michael Craghan
craghan.michael@epa.gov
Oceans and Coastal Protection Division
EPA Office of Water
(202)566-1946
Jeremy Martinich
martinich.ieremy@epa.gov
Climate Change Division
EPA Office of Air and Radiation
(202) 343-9871
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