vvEPA
EPA454/R-07-002
United States February 2007
Environmental Protection
Agency
National Scale Modeling of
Air Toxics for the Final Mobile
Source Air Toxics Rule
Technical Support Document
-------
EPA454/R-07-002
February 2007
National Scale Modeling of Air Toxics for the Final
Mobile Source Air Toxics Rule
Technical Support Document
Emissions, Monitoring and Analysis Division
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina
-------
Disclaimer
The information in this document has been reviewed in accordance with the U.S. EPA
administrative review policies and approved for publication. Mention of trade names or
commercial products does not constitute endorsement or recommendation for their use.
The following trademarks appear in this document:
UNIX is a registered trademark of AT&T Bell Laboratories.
Linux is a registered trademark of Red Hat
SAS® is a registered trademark of SAS Institute
SUN is a registered trademark of Sun Microsystems, Inc.
-------
Table of Contents
1. Purpose of Work 1
2. 1999 base inventories 5
2.1 1999 HAP inventories 5
2.2 1999 Precursor inventories 8
3. Development of Future Year Mobile and Mobile-Related Emissions 11
3.1 Locomotive and commercial marine vessels 11
3.2 Aircraft and Aviation gasoline 19
3.3 Projection of onroad and nonroad categories using NMIM 24
3.3.1 Description of NMIM 24
3.3.2 Onroad projections using NMIM 25
3.3.2.1 Calculation of refueling emissions for light-duty gasoline vehicles 26
3.3.3 Nonroad projections using NMEVI (excluding aircraft, locomotives, and commercial
marine vessels) 36
3.3.4 Portable Fuel Containers (PFC) emission inventories 48
3.3.4.1 VOC allocation 48
3.3.4.2 Creation ofHAPPFC inventories 52
4. Creation of stationary inventories 57
4.1 Growth factors 57
4.1.1 MACT based growth factors 58
4.1.2 SIC based growth factors 61
4.1.3 SCC based growth factors 62
4.2 Reduction factors 62
4.3 Other inventory adjustments 65
4.3.1 Calculation of gasoline distribution adjustment factors 65
4.3.2 Calculation of benzene controls 72
4.3.3 Removal of vehicle refueling emissions 75
4.4 Application of growth and reductions to project stationary source emissions 76
4.4.1 Point and airport nonpoint sources 76
4.4.2 Nonpoint sources 78
5. EMS-HAP Processing for HAPs 85
5.1 Spatial surrogates and temporal factors for PFC SCC codes 85
5.2 Inventory scenarios 87
5.3 Point sources 87
5.4 Nonpoint sources 88
5.5 Onroad sources 89
5.6 Nonroad sources 89
5.6.1 Aircraft sources 89
5.6.2 Airport Support Equipment 89
5.6.3 Remaining nonroad sources 89
6. ASPEN Processing 91
6.1 ASPEN modeling 91
6.2 Post-processing of ASPEN concentrations 96
6.2.1 Secondary contributions 97
7. HAPEM6 Model and Post-Processing 119
7.1HAPEM6Model 119
-------
Table of Contents
7.2 Air quality input files 120
7.3 HAPEM6 output 120
8. Cancer and non-cancer risk calculations 147
8.1 Cancer risk calculations 148
8.2 Non-cancer calculations 168
8.3 Cancer and non-cancer population bin calculations 182
8.3.1 Using 30 replicates per tract 182
8.3.2 Comparison of risk methods 190
9. References 193
11
-------
List of Tables
Table 1. Pollutants of interest in MSAT study. CAS numbers in italics are in the stationary
inventories only; otherwise they are in mobile and stationary inventories 3
Table 2. Changes made to the 1999 NEI HAP inventories prior to processing for 1999 NATA or
projections for MSAT 6
Table 3. Emissions (tons) for MSAT HAPs in the 1999 inventories. Totals are for the 50 states
and District of Columbia 7
Table 4. Non-HAP precursors for the MSAT secondary HAPs with source sector emissions for
1999. Totals are for the 50 states and District of Columbia 9
Table 5. Locomotive SCC codes in the 1999 NEI nonroad inventory 11
Table 6. Locomotive 50-State annual emissions trends (tons per year) and future year ratios... 12
Table?. Locomotive MSAT HAPs 13
Table 8. Commercial marine vessel 50-State annual emissions trends (tons per year) and future
year ratios used as project!on factors 14
Table 9. Commercial marine vessel SCC codes, HAPs, and basis of projection factors 15
Table 10. National locomotive emissions by SCC for selected HAPs and across all HAPs 17
Table 11. National commercial marine vessel emissions by SCC for selected HAPs and across all
HAPs 18
Table 12. TAP landing and take-off data for 1999, 2010, 2015, and 2020 19
Table 13. Airport related SCC codes, assigned growth factor basis, and growth factors for
MSAT study years 20
Table 14. Aircraft and aviation gasoline distribution emissions for selected HAPs and all HAPs
by SCC. Aviation gasoline distribution emissions for 2030 are set equal to 2020 23
Table 15. Calculated refueling emissions by HAP for base and controlled strategies 30
Table 16. Base inventory emissions by vehicle type and total onroad for selected HAPs and all
HAPs 31
Table 17. Fuels control inventory emissions by vehicle type and total onroad for selected HAPs
and all HAPs. Total onroad includes diesel emissions 33
Table 18. Vehicle control inventory emissions by vehicle type and total onroad for selected
HAPs and all HAPs. Total onroad includes diesel 34
Table 19. Cumulative fuels and vehicle control inventory emissions by vehicle type and total
onroad for selected HAPs and all HAPs. Total onroad includes diesel 35
Table 20. Nonroad gasoline equipment SCC codes refueled by portable fuel containers (PFC)
and percentage of refueling from PFCs 38
Table 21. Factors used to allocate Adams County emissions to surrounding counties 38
Table 22. Nonroad refueling emissions before and after subtracting the refueling emissions due
to portable fuel containers (PFC) 41
Table 23. Base nonroad emissions by engine type 42
Table 24. Base nonroad emissions by equipment type 43
Table 25. Controlled gasoline engine emissions for 2015, 2020, and 2030 45
Table 26. Controlled gasoline engine equipment emissions for 2015, 2020, and 2030 46
Table 27. Base engine and equipment for all HAPs 47
Table 28. Controlled gasoline engine emissions by engine and equipment type for all HAPs... 48
Table 29. PFC categories with national level residential and commercial emissions 51
Table 30. SCC codes of PFC categories 51
Table 31. PFC and benzene fuel control inventory scenarios 52
iii
-------
List of Tables
Table 32. PFC emissions with and without controls for no benzene fuel controls 55
Table 33. PFC emissions with and without controls for benzene fuel controls 56
Table 34. National level MACT growth factors for 2015 and 2020 59
Table 35. Utility Boilers: Coal (MACT= 1808-1) state level growth factors for 2015 and 2020.60
Table 36. SIC codes changed due to unrealistic growth factors 61
Table 37. Summary of Categories for which reductions were applied in EMS-HAP 64
Table 38. Gasoline distribution SCC codes used in calculation of adjustment factors 67
Table 39. National gasoline distribution adjustment factors for each HAP 72
Table 40. Change in Average Fuel Benzene Level (Volume Percent) by PADD with
Implementation of Proposed Fuel Benzene Standard (CG - Conventional Gasoline; RFG -
Reformulated Gasoline) 74
Table 41. Vehicle refueling SCC codes 75
Table 42. 1999, 2015, and 2020, pre-adjusted, adjusted, and controlled adjusted gasoline
distribution emissions 82
Table 43. Vehicle refueling emissions removed from stationary inventories 82
Table 44. PFC SCC codes and assigned surrogates 86
Table 45. Emission scenarios to be processed in EMS-HAP and ASPEN. Base inventory
applies to all years and control inventory applies to 2015, 2020, and 2030 87
Table 46. ASPEN emission groups 90
Table 47. Reactivity classes for MSAT HAPs and precursors 92
Table 48. Base background and ASPEN stationary and mobile concentrations (ng m"3) for 1999,
2015, 2020, and 2030 103
Table 49. Controlled ASPEN stationary and mobile concentrations (ng m"3) for 2015, 2020, and
2030 104
Table 50. Concentration replacement strategy for controlled HAPEM concentrations 127
Table 51. HAPEM national average concentrations (based on median tract concentrations) for
1999,2015, 2020, and 2030 128
Table 52. HAPEM national average concentrations (based on 90th percentile tract concentrations)
for 1999,2015, 2020, and 2030 129
Table 53. HAPEM national average controlled concentrations (based on median tract
concentrations) for 2015, 2020, and 2030 130
Table 54. HAPEM national average controlled concentrations (based on 90th percentile tract
concentrations) for 2015, 2020, and 2030 130
Table 55. MSAT HAPs carcinogenic class, URE, non-cancer target organ systems, and RfC.
N/A denotes HAP is not a cancer or non-cancer HAP 147
Table 56. Base national average risks for 1999, 2015, 2020, and 2030 by HAP, carcinogen class
and across all HAPs. HAPs are grouped by carcinogen class. Total includes background
risks 153
Table 57. Control national average risks for 2015, 2020, and 2030 by HAP, carcinogen class and
across all HAPs. HAPs are grouped by carcinogen class. Total includes background. ... 154
Table 58. National total risk incidences (all sources) by HAP, carcinogen class, and across all
HAPs 167
Table 59. Base national average hazard quotients (HAPs) and hazard indices (organ systems) for
1999, 2015, 2020, and 2030. Total includes background 170
IV
-------
List of Tables
Table 60. Control national average hazard quotients (HAPs) and hazard indices (organ systems)
for 2015, 2020, and 2030. Total includes background 171
Table 61. Populations by source category, year, and inventory scenario for total risk (all HAPs).
184
Table 62. Populations by source category, year, and inventory scenario for the respiratory
system 185
Table 63. Populations and percent differences (MS AT-NAT A) of risk bins using the MSAT
method and NATA method for 1999, 2015, 2020, and 2030 191
Table 64. Populations and percent differences (MSAT-NATA) of respiratory HI bins using the
MSAT method and NATA method for 1999, 2015, 2020, and 2030 192
-------
This page intentionally blank
-------
List of Figures
Figure 1. General steps in flow of emissions to cancer risk and non-cancer hazard quotient
estimates 2
Figure 2. Steps in projecting 1999 locomotive and commercial marine vessel emissions to future
years 16
Figure 3. Format of the aircraft growth factor file. 2010 growth factors shown as example 21
Figure 4. Flowchart of a) aircraft and b) aviation gasoline distribution emissions projections... 22
Figure 5. General steps in processing of onroad NMEVI emissions for EMS-HAP input 26
Figure 6. Refueling calculations for a) benzene 1999 and 2010, and b) other HAPs 29
Figure 7. 1999 and 2010 nonroad processing steps 39
Figure 8. 2015, 2020, and 2030 nonroad processing steps 40
Figure 9. Steps in allocation of state VOC PFC emissions to counties 50
Figure 10. Steps in creating HAP PFC emissions 54
Figure 11. PADD regions for the U.S 73
Figure 12. RFG counties (dark gray) for the U.S 74
Figure 13. Steps in adjustment of 1999 and 2015 and 2020 projected point and airport nonpoint
inventories 77
Figure 14. Steps in used in developing controlled 2015 and 2020 point and airport nonpoint
inventories 78
Figure 15. Adjustment of: a) 1999 nonpoint inventory with MWI emissions included and b)
1999 nonpoint inventory without MWI emissions for projection to 2015, 2020, and 2030. 80
Figure 16. Development of nonpoint base and controlled inventories for projection for 2015,
2020, and 2030 81
Figure 17. Major, area & other, nonroad and onroad emissions for 1999, 2015, 2020, and 2030
for base and controlled inventories for a) sum of all HAPs, and b) benzene only 83
Figure 18. Temporal profile assigned to PFC SCC codes 85
Figure 19. Reactivity class 1 ASPEN inputs and outputs. Output is the final output from
ASPENA and ASPENB 93
Figure 20. Reactivity class 2 ASPEN inputs and outputs. Output is the final output from
ASPENA and ASPENB 94
Figure 21. Reactivity classes 3 and 4 ASPEN inputs and outputs. Output is the final output from
ASPENA and ASPENB 95
Figure 22. Reactivity classes 5 and 7 ASPEN inputs and outputs. Output is the final output from
ASPENA and ASPENB 95
Figure 23. Reactivity class 9 ASPEN inputs and outputs. Output is the final output from
ASPENA and ASPENB 96
Figure 24. Box and whisker plots of ratios of stationary secondary contributions to total
concentrations (white boxes) and ratios of mobile secondary contributions to total
concentrations (gray boxes) for 1999 acetaldehyde and formaldehyde concentrations. Dots
represent the national mean ratios 98
Figure 25. Secondary onroad concentrations calculated from modeled precursors (white boxes)
and calculated from 1999 ratios of secondary to primary modeled concentrations (gray
boxes) for 2015, 2020, and 2030 for a) acetaldehyde, b) formaldehyde, and c)
propionaldehyde 100
Figure 26. Secondary nonroad concentrations calculated from modeled precursors (white boxes)
and calculated from 1999 ratios of secondary to primary modeled concentrations (gray
vii
-------
List of Figures
boxes) for 2015, 2020, and 2030 for a) acetaldehyde, b) formaldehyde, and c)
propionaldehyde 101
Figure 27. 1999 base ASPEN concentration distributions 105
Figure 28. 2015 base and controlled ASPEN concentration distributions 106
Figure 29. 2020 base and controlled ASPEN concentration distributions 107
Figure 30. 2030 base and controlled ASPEN concentration distributions 108
Figure 31. Distributions of the ratio of 2015 controlled annual average total concentrations to
2015 base annual average total concentrations by HAP. Totals include background
concentration 109
Figure 32. Distributions of the ratio of 2020 controlled annual average total concentrations to
2020 base annual average total concentrations by HAP. Totals include background
concentration 110
Figure 33. Distributions of the ratio of 2030 controlled annual average total concentrations to
2030 base annual average total concentrations by HAP. Totals include background
concentration Ill
Figure 34. 1999 county level median total (all sources and background) concentrations (ng m"3)
for benzene 112
Figure 35. 2015 base county level median total (all sources and background) concentrations
(|j,g m"3) for benzene 113
Figure 36. 2015 control county level median total (all sources and background) concentrations
(|j,g m"3) for benzene 114
Figure 37. 2020 base county level median total (all sources and background) concentrations
(|j,g m"3) for benzene 115
Figure 38. 2020 control county level median total (all sources and background) concentrations
(|j,g m"3) for benzene 116
Figure 39. 2030 base county level median total (all sources and background) concentrations
(|j,g m"3) for benzene 117
Figure 40. 2030 control county level median total (all sources and background) concentrations
(|j,g m"3) for benzene 118
Figure 41. Modification of 2015 and 2020 HAPEM6 controlled concentrations for a) all HAPs
excluding benzene, metals, naphthalene, POM, propionaldehyde, and styrene and b)
propionaldehyde and styrene 122
Figure 42. Modification of 2015 and 2020 HAPEM6 controlled concentrations for a) metals,
naphthalene, and POM and b) benzene 123
Figure 43. Modification of 2030 base HAPEM6 concentrations for all HAPs 124
Figure 44. Modification of 2030 HAPEM6 controlled concentrations for a) all HAPs excluding
benzene, metals, naphthalene, POM, propionaldehyde, and styrene and b) propionaldehyde
and styrene 125
Figure 45. Modification of 2030 HAPEM6 controlled concentrations for a) metals, naphthalene,
and POM and b) benzene 126
Figure 46. 1999 base HAPEM6 tract concentration distributions for a) tract median exposure
concentration and b) tract 90th percentile exposure concentration 132
Figure 47. 2015 base and controlled HAPEM6 tract concentration distributions for a) tract
median exposure concentration and b) tract 90th percentile exposure concentration 133
Vlll
-------
List of Figures
Figure 48. 2020 base and controlled HAPEM6 tract concentration distributions for a) tract
median exposure concentration and b) tract 90th percentile exposure concentration 134
Figure 49. 2030 base and controlled HAPEM6 tract concentration distributions for a) tract
median exposure concentration and b) tract 90th percentile exposure concentration 135
Figure 50. Distributions of the ratio of 2015 HAPEM6 controlled annual average total
concentrations to 2015 HAPEM6 base annual average total concentrations by HAP for a)
tract median exposure concentration and b) tract 90th percentile exposure concentration.
Totals include background concentration 136
Figure 51. Distributions of the ratio of 2020 HAPEM6 controlled annual average total
concentrations to 2020 HAPEM6 base annual average total concentrations by HAP for a)
tract median exposure concentration and b) tract 90th percentile exposure concentration.
Totals include background concentration 137
Figure 52. Distributions of the ratio of 2030 HAPEM6 controlled annual average total
concentrations to 2030 HAPEM6 base annual average total concentrations by HAP for a)
tract median exposure concentration and b) tract 90th percentile exposure concentration.
Totals include background concentration 138
Figure 53. 1999 HAPEM6 county level median total (all sources and background)
concentrations (|j,g m"3) for benzene. Median concentration based on tract median exposure
concentrations 139
Figure 54. 2015 base HAPEM6 county level median total (all sources and background)
concentrations (ng m"3) for benzene. Median concentration based on tract median exposure
concentrations 140
Figure 55. 2015 controlled HAPEM6 county level median total (all sources and background)
concentrations (ng m"3) for benzene. Median concentration based on tract median exposure
concentrations 141
Figure 56. 2020 base HAPEM6 county level median total (all sources and background)
concentrations (ng m"3) for benzene. Median concentration based on tract median exposure
concentrations 142
Figure 57. 2020 controlled HAPEM6 county level median total (all sources and background)
concentrations (ng m"3) for benzene. Median concentration based on tract median exposure
concentrations 143
Figure 58. 2030 base HAPEM6 county level median total (all sources and background)
concentrations (|j,g m"3) for benzene. Median concentration based on tract median exposure
concentrations 144
Figure 59. 2030 controlled HAPEM6 county level median total (all sources and background)
concentrations (|j,g m"3) for benzene. Median concentration based on tract median exposure
concentrations 145
Figure 60. Example output of HAPEM6 calculated risks for one tract for 1999 benzene 149
Figure 61. 1999 base national HAPEM6 risk distributions 155
Figure 62. 2015 base (white) and control (gray) national HAPEM6 risk distributions 156
Figure 63. 2020 base (white) and control (gray) national HAPEM6 risk distributions 157
Figure 64. 2030 base (white) and control (gray) national HAPEM6 risk distributions 158
Figure 65. 1999 base county level median total (all sources and background) risk for benzene.
159
IX
-------
List of Figures
Figure 66. 2015 base county level median total (all sources and background) risk for benzene.
160
Figure 67. 2015 control county level median total (all sources and background) risk for benzene.
161
Figure 68. 2020 base county level median total (all sources and background) risk for benzene.
162
Figure 69. 2020 control county level median total (all sources and background) risk for benzene.
163
Figure 70. 2030 base county level median total (all sources and background) risk for benzene.
164
Figure 71. 2030 control county level median total (all sources and background) risk for benzene.
165
Figure 72. Total risk for each year and control strategy with HAP contributions 166
Figure 73. Contribution of individual HAP incidences (70 year lifetime) to total risk (all HAPs
and all sources) 168
Figure 74. 1999 base national HAPEM6 hazard quotient (HAPs) and hazard index (respiratory
system) distributions 172
Figure 75. 2015 base (white) and control (gray) national HAPEM6 hazard quotient (HAPs) and
hazard index (respiratory system) distributions 173
Figure 76. 2020 base (white) and control (gray) national HAPEM6 hazard quotient (HAPs) and
hazard index (respiratory system) distributions 174
Figure 77. 2030 base (white) and control (gray) national HAPEM6 hazard quotient (HAPs) and
hazard index (respiratory system) distributions 175
Figure 78. 1999 base county level median total (all sources and background) hazard quotient for
benzene 176
Figure 79. 2015 base county level median total (all sources and background) hazard quotient for
benzene 177
Figure 80. 2015 control county level median total (all sources and background) hazard quotient
for benzene 178
Figure 81. 2020 base county level median total (all sources and background) hazard quotient for
benzene 179
Figure 82. 2020 control county level median total (all sources and background) hazard quotient
for benzene 180
Figure 83. 2030 base county level median total (all sources and background) hazard quotient for
benzene 181
Figure 84. 2030 control county level median total (all sources and background) hazard quotient
for benzene 182
Figure 85. Populations of risk bins for total risk (all HAPs) by year and scenario for a) major
sources, b) area & other sources, c) onroad sources and d) nonroad sources 186
Figure 86. Populations of risk bins for total risk (all HAPs) by year and scenario for a)
background sources and b) all sources 187
Figure 87. Populations of non-cancer HI bins for the respiratory system by year and scenario for
a) major sources, b) area & other sources, c) onroad sources and d) nonroad sources 188
Figure 88. Populations of non-cancer HI bins for the respiratory system by year and scenario for
a) background sources andb) all sources 189
-------
Acronyms
AEO Annual Energy Outlook
ASPEN Assessment System for Population Exposure Nationwide
BE A Bureau of Economic Analysis
BenMAP Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program
CAS Chemical Abstract Service
EGAS Economic Growth Analysis System
EMS-HAP The Emissions Modeling System for Hazardous Air Pollutants
EPA United States Environmental Protection Agency
HAP Hazardous Air Pollutant
HAPEM5 Hazardous Air Pollutant Exposure Model, Version 5
HAPEM6 Hazardous Air Pollutant Exposure Model, Version 6
HI non-cancer Hazard Index for a target organ system
HQ non-cancer Hazard Quotient for an individual HAP
MACT Maximum Available Control Technology standards for HAP, established
under Section 112 of the Clean Air Act
MSAT Mobile Source Air Toxics
NATA National Air Toxics Assessment
NEI EPA's National Emission Inventory
NMIM National Mobile Inventory Model
OAQPS EPA's Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
OTAQ EPA's Office of Transportation and Air Quality
PFC Portable Fuel Containers
REMI Regional Economic Model, Inc.
SAROAD Air pollution chemical species classification system used in EPA's initial
data base for "Storage and Retrieval of Aerometric Data"
SCC Source Classification Code
SIC Standard Industrial Classification code used for Federal economic
statistics
TAP Terminal Area Forecast
URE Unit risk estimate for cancer risk
XI
-------
List of files referenced in document
File
onroad 0906.xls
onroad_pivot_0905.xls
nonroad_1009.xls
nonroad_pivot_1009.xls
pfc summaries.xls
mwi.sas
aspen_concentrations.xls
acetaldehyde_aspen.ppt
acrolein_aspen.ppt
benzene_aspen.ppt
butadiene_aspen.ppt
formaldehyde_aspen.ppt
naphthalene_aspen.ppt
hapem_concentrations_50 . xls
hapem_concentrations_90 . xls
acetaldehyde_hapem.ppt
acrolein_hapem.ppt
benzene_hapem.ppt
butadiene_hapem.ppt
formaldehyde_hapem.ppt
naphthalene_hapem.ppt
risks.xls
acetaldehyde_risk.ppt
benzene_risk.ppt
Description
Excel workbook of onroad emissions by vehicle type for state and
national level
Excel workbook containing pivot table of onroad emissions by
vehicle type for state and national
Excel workbook of nonroad emissions by engine, equipment, and
engine/equipment type for state and national level
Excel workbook containing pivot table of nonroad emissions by
engine, equipment, and engine/equipment type for state and
national level
National and state PFC emission summaries
SAS® program to substitute 2002 MWI point emissions in the
1999 point inventory
Excel workbook of national and state mean concentrations and
concentration distribution for ASPEN results
PowerPoint file containing national maps of county median total
ASPEN concentrations for acetaldehyde
PowerPoint file containing national maps of county median total
ASPEN concentrations for acrolein
PowerPoint file containing national maps of county median total
ASPEN concentrations for benzene
PowerPoint file containing national maps of county median total
ASPEN concentrations for 1,3-butadiene
PowerPoint file containing national maps of county median total
ASPEN concentrations for formaldehyde
PowerPoint file containing national maps of county median total
ASPEN concentrations for naphthalene
Excel workbook of national and state mean concentrations and
concentration distribution for HAPEM tract median
concentrations
Excel workbook of national and state mean concentrations and
concentration distribution for HAPEM tract 90th percentile
concentrations
PowerPoint file containing national maps of acetaldehyde county
median total HAPEM concentrations
PowerPoint file containing national maps of acrolein county
median total HAPEM concentrations
PowerPoint file containing national maps of benzene county
median total HAPEM concentrations
PowerPoint file containing national maps of 1,3-bbutadiene
county median total HAPEM concentrations
PowerPoint file containing national maps of formaldehyde county
median total HAPEM concentrations
PowerPoint file containing national maps of naphthalene county
median total HAPEM concentrations
Excel workbook of national and state mean risks and risk
distribution for HAPEM based results
PowerPoint file containing national maps of acetaldehyde county
median total HAPEM based risks
PowerPoint file containing national maps of benzene county
median total HAPEM based risks
Section
o o ^>
3.3.2
3.3.2
3.3.3
3.3.3
3.3.4
4.3
6.2
6.2
6.2
6.2
6.2
6.2
6.2
7.3
7.3
7.3
7.3
7.3
7.3
7.3
7.3
8.1
8.1
8.1
Xll
-------
List of files referenced in document
File
butadiene_risk.ppt
total_risk.ppt
risk incidences.xls
noncancer.xls
acetaldehyde_hq.ppt
acrolein_hq.ppt
benzene_hq.ppt
butadiene_hq.ppt
formaldehyde_hq.ppt
naphthalene_hq.ppt
risk_bins_benzene.xls
risk_bins_total.xls
hq_bins_benzene.xls
hi_bins_respiratory.xls
risk bins comp 1999 base.xls
risk bins comp 2015 base.xls
risk bins comp 2015 con.xls
risk bins comp 2020 base.xls
risk bins comp 2020 con.xls
risk bins comp 2030 base.xls
risk bins comp 2030 con.xls
hi bins comp 1999 base.xls
hi bins comp 2015 base.xls
hi bins comp 2015 con.xls
hi bins comp 2020 base.xls
hi bins comp 2020 con.xls
hi bins comp 2030 base.xls
hi bins comp 2030 con.xls
Description
PowerPoint file containing national maps of 1,3 -butadiene county
median total HAPEM based risks
PowerPoint file containing national maps of county median total
(all HAPs and sources) HAPEM based risks
Excel workbook of national and state cancer total risk incidences
Excel workbook of national and state mean HQ and HI
distribution for HAPEM based results
PowerPoint file containing national maps of acetaldehyde county
median total HAPEM based risks
PowerPoint file containing national maps of acrolein county
median total HAPEM based risks
PowerPoint file containing national maps of benzene county
median total HAPEM based risks
PowerPoint file containing national maps of 1,3 -butadiene county
median total HAPEM based risks
PowerPoint file containing national maps of formaldehyde county
median total HAPEM based risks
PowerPoint file containing national maps of naphthalene county
median total HAPEM based risks
Excel workbook of population of risk categories by source
category for benzene
Excel workbook of population of risk categories by source
category for total risk
Excel workbook of population of non-cancer HQ categories by
source category for benzene
Excel workbook of population of non-cancer HI categories by
source category for the respiratory system
Excel workbook of risk bin comparisons for 1999.
Excel workbook of risk bin comparisons for 2015 base
Excel workbook of risk bin comparisons for 2015 control
Excel workbook of risk bin comparisons for 2020 base
Excel workbook of risk bin comparisons for 2020 control
Excel workbook of risk bin comparisons for 2030 base
Excel workbook of risk bin comparisons for 2030 control
Excel workbook of respiratory HI bin comparisons for 1999.
Excel workbook of respiratory HI bin comparisons for 2015 base
Excel workbook of respiratory HI bin comparisons for 2015
control
Excel workbook of respiratory HI bin comparisons for 2020 base
Excel workbook of respiratory HI bin comparisons for 2020
control
Excel workbook of respiratory HI bin comparisons for 2030 base
Excel workbook of respiratory HI bin comparisons for 2030
control
Section
8.1
8.1
8.1
8.2
8.2
8.2
8.2
8.2
8.2
8.2
8.3
8.3.1
8.3.1
8.3.1
8.3.2
8O ^
.3.2
8-2 0
. J .2
81 i
.3.2
8-2 0
. J.Z
80 ^
.3.2
8-2 0
. J.Z
8.3.2
8.3.2
8.3.2
8.3.2
8.3.2
8.3.2
8.3.2
Xlll
-------
This page intentionally blank
-------
1. Purpose of Work
The purpose of the work described in this technical document was to project emissions for
mobile source hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) to 2010, 2015, 2020, and 2030 from the 1999
National Emissions Inventory Version 3 (NEI) (U. S. EPA, 2004a), conduct air quality and
exposure modeling, and estimate cancer and non-cancer risk for select future years. Air quality
modeling utilized the Assessment System for Population Exposure Nationwide (ASPEN) model
(U. S. EPA, 2000). Exposure modeling utilized the Hazardous Air Pollutant Exposure Model,
Version 6 (HAPEM6) (U.S. EPA, 2007). Cancer risk and non-cancer risk were estimated for
1999, 2015, 2020, and 2030. Modeling was done for reference cases, which included programs
currently planned and in place, as well as control scenarios that evaluated impacts of additional
control programs being finalized in this rule. This work was done to support regulatory needs
related to the 2007 final mobile source air toxics rule.
The pollutants modeled in this study, in support of the mobile source air toxics rule, are shown in
Table 1. They are referenced in the document as MS AT HAPs. These pollutants are all included
in the NEI and are on EPA's list of hazardous pollutants in Section 112 of the Clean Air Act.
They are also emitted by mobile sources. In this assessment, projected inventories were
developed for both the mobile and stationary emission sources in the 1999 NEI. There are
additional hazardous air pollutants in the 1999 NEI with a mobile source emissions estimate that
are not included in Table 1. Some of these were pollutants found only in data submitted by
individual States. EPA generated others through the use of speciation factors obtained from a
non-mobile source process (e.g., commercial marine vessels, residual oil). More information on
the 1999 NEI development can be found at www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/.
After inventory development, these pollutants were modeled in ASPEN and HAPEM6,
following the same general methods used in the 1999 National Air Toxics Assessment (U.S.
EPA, 2006a) (www. epa. gov/ttn/nata99).
The remainder of this document describes the methodology used for the inventory projections
and subsequent air quality modeling. Section 2 describes the 1999 base HAP and precursor
inventories, Section 3 describes the development of the projected mobile inventories including
portable fuel containers. Section 4 describes the development of the projected stationary
inventories. Sections 5, 6, and 7 describe the emissions processing, air quality modeling and
exposure modeling. Section 8 describes the calculation of cancer risk and non-cancer risk
(hazard quotients and hazard indices). A flowchart of the general steps is shown in Figure 1.
-------
Point emissions Nonpoint emissions PFC emissions NMIM onroad emissions NMIM nonroad emissions
.1 ...... r^i*-ii
: EMS-HAP |
! EMS-HAP |
ASPEN ready files
I
! ASPEN i
' T
Air quality concentrations
HAPEM AQ files
! HAPEM6 i
r—
! EMS-HAP |
'
Exposure concentrations Cancer Risk Non-cancer hazard quotient
Figure 1. General steps in flow of emissions to cancer risk and non-cancer hazard quotient
estimates.
-------
Table 1. Pollutants of interest in MS AT study. CAS numbers in italics are in the stationary
inventories only; otherwise they are in mobile and stationary inventories.
HAP
CAS or pollutant code in 1999 NEI
SAROAD(s)
Organic gaseous HAPs (excluding those assessed as POM group)
1,3 -Butadiene
2,2,4-Trimethylpentane
Acetaldehyde
Acrolein
Benzene
Ethyl Benzene
Formaldehyde
Hexane
Methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE)
Naphthalene
Propionaldehyde
Styrene
Toluene
Xylenes
106990
540841
75070
107028
71432
100414
50000
110543
1634044
91203
123386
100425
108883
106423, 108383, 1330207, 95476
43218
43250
43503
43505
45201
45203
43502
43231
43376
46701, 46702
43504
45220
45202
45102
Metal HAPs
Chromium III
Chromium VI
Manganese
Nickel
10060125, 12018018, 1308389, 136, 16065831, 21679312,
7440473
10294403, 10588019, 11103869, 11115745, 1308130,
1333820, 13530659, 136, 13765190, 14307358, 18454121,
18540299, 7440473, 7738945, 7758976, 7775113,
7778509, 7789006, 7789062
10101505, 1313139, 1317346, 1317357, 198,7439965,
7722647, 7783166, 7785877
10101970, 12054487, 13138459, 1313991, 1314063,
13462889, 13463393, 13770893, 226, 373024, 7440020,
7718549, 7786814, NY059280
59992, 59993
69992, 69993
80196, 80396
80216,80316
HAPs grouped as POM
Acenaphthene
Acenaphthylene
Anthracene
Benzo(g,h,i)perylene
Fluoranthene
Fluorene
Phenanthrene
Pyrene
Benzo(a)pyrene
Dibenzo(a,h)anthracene
Benz(a)anthracene
Benzo(b)fluoranthene
Benzo(k)fluoranthene
Indeno(l,2,3,c,d)-pyrene
Chrysene
83329
208968
120127
191242
206440
86737
85018
129000
50328
53703
56553
205992
207089
193395
218019
72002
72002
72002
72002
72002
72002
72002
72002
75002
75002
76002
76002
76002
76002
77002
Description of POM groups by SAROAD
72002: POM, Group 2: no URE data
75002: POM, Group 5: 5.0E-4 < URE < 5.0E-3
76002: POM, Group 6: 5.0E-5 < URE < 5.0E-4
77002: POM, Group 7: 5.0E-6 < URE < 5.0E-5
-------
The following notes apply to Table 1:
• Although designated as SAROAD code in the EMS-HAP User's Guide (U.S. EPA,
2004b) and ASPEN User's Guide (U.S. EPA, 2000), the SAROAD code value in Table 1
is not the actual SAROAD code for the HAP. Rather, it is a 5-digit code used by ASPEN
and EMS-HAP to represent the specific pollutant or pollutant group that is modeled in
ASPEN.
• For HAPs with two SAROAD codes, the lower numbered code represents the fine
particle mode and the higher number represents the coarse particle mode. For
naphthalene, the lower numbered code represents the gas mode while the higher number
represents the fine particle mode. For chromium III and chromium VI, CAS numbers
136 and 7440473 are used for both HAPs. These two CAS numbers represent non-
speciated chromium. During emissions processing, the non-speciated chromium is
speciated to chromium III and chromium VI. For mobile sources not modeled in NMIM
(aircraft, locomotives, and commercial marine vessels), eighteen percent of the chromium
was assumed to be hexavalent, based on combustion data from stationary combustion
turbines that burn diesel fuel (Taylor, 2003).
• The 1999 stationary NEI contains additional POM pollutants including unspeciated POM
groups such as 7-PAH or other specific POM that are not on the MSAT list but are
emitted from stationary sources and were thus modeled as a POM group. These other
POM pollutants, with CAS in parentheses, are listed below along with the POM group
that they fall in.
• POM group 71002: total PAH (234), POM (246), 16-PAH - 7-PAH (75040)1,
16-PAH (40), Benz(a)Anthracene/Chrysene (103)
• POM group 72002: Benzo(e)pyrene (192972), Perylene (198550), 2-
Methylnaphthalene (91576), Benzofluoranthenes (56832736), 2-
Chloronaphthalene (91587), Methyl anthracene (26914181), Methylchrysene
(248), 12-Methylbenz(a)Anthracene (2422799), 1-Methylpyrene (2381217), 1-
Methylphenanthrene (832699), Methylbenzopyrenes (247), 9-
Methylbenz(a)Anthracene (779022), Benzo(a)fluoranthene (203338),
Benzo(g,h,i)Fluoranthene (203123), Benzo(c)phenanthrene (195197)
• POM group 73002: 7,12-Dimethylbenz(a)anthracene (57976)
• POM group 74002: Dibenzo(a,i)pyrene (189559), D(a,h)pyrene (189640), 3-
Methylcholanthrene (56495)
• POM group 75002: D(a,e)pyrene (192654), 5-Methylchrysene (3697243)
• POM group 76002: B(j)fluoranthene (205823), D(a,j)acridine (224420),
Benzo(b+k)fluoranthene (102)
• POM group 78002: 7-PAH (75)
1 See Table 2 for explanation of CAS 75040.
-------
2. 1999 base inventories
2.1 1999 HAP inventories
The inventories used in development of the future locomotive, commercial marine vessel,
aircraft, and stationary inventories were from the 1999 National Emissions Inventory (NEI)
Version 3 (http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/net/1999inventory.html). This was the inventory used
for the 1999 NAT A. The HAP emissions were provided for the following four inventory sectors:
point, non-point, onroad mobile, and nonroad mobile. Point and non-point inventories contained
the stationary source emissions, and onroad and nonroad contained the mobile emissions. For
details about each inventory see
http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/net/1999inventory.html. However for this study, onroad and
nonroad (excluding aircraft, locomotives, and commercial marine vessels) were provided via the
NMEVI2005 model, rather than taken from the 1999 NEI.
For the 1999 NAT A, emissions, concentrations and risks were also summarized by emission
source sector: major, area & other, onroad and nonroad. The inventory sectors onroad and
nonroad mapped directly to the corresponding NATA source sectors. The stationary sources
(point and non-point) map was as follows: point sources contained both major and area sources;
non-point sources contained area & other sources.
Some changes (or fixes) were made to the inventories before processing in EMS-HAP. Table 2
lists these changes. Onroad is not listed since onroad emissions for the rule will come from
NMIM.
-------
Table 2. Changes made to the 1999 NEI HAP inventories prior to processing for 1999 NATA or projections for MS AT.
Inventory
Point
Non-point
Nonroad
Change
Changed stack diameter for siteid 4200300899 to 0.67 ft
Corrected emissions from pounds to tons for siteid 3 1 109-02 17 for methylene chloride
Converted stack parameters from English units to metric units
Removed dashes from SCC code and convert all lowercase characters in SCC code to uppercase. Also if SCC was 0, 00000000,
"NONE", or "N/A" make SCC blank
If SIC code was "NONE" or "XXXX" make SIC blank
If Maximum Achievable Control Technology (MACT) code was "NONE" made MACT blank
For sources defaulted to county centroids (DEFAULT_LOC_FLAG='CNTYCENT) made the location coordinates equal to
missing so that EMS-HAP would default location to tracts.
If MACT code = 723 then MACT = 0723
If MACT code = 724 then MACT = 0724
Removed all emissions for Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands since we conducted the MSAT analysis for the 50 states
Replaced 1999 MACT 1801 emissions with 2002 draft 1801 emissions
Removed all emissions for Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands since we conducted the MSAT analysis for the 50 states.
Changed MACT 1801 emissions to 0 for projections.
For FIPS/SCC/ combinations where there were both 16-PAH emissions (CAS=40) and 7-PAH emissions (CAS=75) and the 16-
PAH emissions were larger than the 7-PAH emissions, subtracted the 7-PAH emissions from the 16-PAH emissions and assigned
the CAS 75040 to the emissions. For the FIPS/SCC combinations being changed deleted the 16-PAH emissions but retained the
7-PAH emissions. For FIPS/SCC combinations that had both 16-PAH and 7-PAH, but 7-PAH emissions were larger than 16-
PAH emissions, made no changes. Also made no changes where there were 7-PAH emissions but no 16-PAH and vice versa.
Remove all emissions for Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands since we conducted the MSAT analysis for the 50 states
For FIPS/SCC/ combinations where there were both 16-PAH emissions (CAS=40) and 7-PAH emissions (CAS=75) and the 16-
PAH emissions are larger than the 7-PAH emissions, subtract the 7-PAH emissions from the 16-PAH emissions and assign the
CAS 75040 to the emissions. For the FIPS/SCC combinations being changed delete the 16-PAH emissions but retain the 7-PAH
emissions. For FIPS/SCC combinations that have both 16-PAH and 7-PAH, but 7-PAH emissions are larger than 16-PAH
emissions, make no changes. Also make no changes where there are 7-PAH emissions but no 16-PAH and vice versa.
Change Chromium III and Chromium VI CAS numbers to the unspeciated Chromium CAS (7440473). Once making the change,
sum up the chromium emissions by FIPS/SCC. The chromium was summed so that EMS-HAP would use an 82/18 chromium
Ill/chromium VI split. Before the summation, the chromium Ill/chromium VI split was not 82/18% as desired.
Corrected FIPS for aircraft emissions in a few counties in which we found the underlying NEI geographic data to be erroneous.
Section C.2.1 of the EMS-HAP V3 User's Guide provides details, in particular, see Table C-4.
Reason
(NATA or
projections)
Both
Both
Both
Both
Both
Both
Both
Projections
Projections
Projections
Projections
Projections
Projections
Both
Projections
Both
Both
Both
-------
Table 3 lists the inventory emissions for each of the MS AT HAPs prior to EMS-HAP processing.
Table 3. Emissions (tons) for MSAT HAPs in the 1999 inventories2. Totals are for the 50 states
and District of Columbia.
HAP
1,3 -Butadiene
2,2,4-Trimethylpentane
Acetaldehyde
Acrolein
Benzene
Ethyl Benzene
Formaldehyde
Hexane
MTBE
Naphthalene
Propionaldehyde
Styrene
Toluene
Xylenes
Chromium (total)
Manganese
Nickel
Acenaphthene
Acenaphthylene
Anthracene
Benzo(g,h,i)perylene
Fluoranthene
Fluorene
Phenanthrene
Pyrene
Benzo(a)pyrene
Dibenzo(a,h)anthracene
Benz(a)anthracene
Benzo(b)fluoranthene
B enzo (k)fluoranthene
Indeno(l,2,3,c,d)-pyrene
Chrysene
7-PAH*
16-PAH*
16-PAH - 7-PAH*
Total PAH*
Total POM*
Non-MSAT POM#
Inventory
Point
2.06xl03
7.02xl03
1.21xl04
9.59xl02
1.24xl04
1.20xl04
3.55xl04
4.62xl04
4.31xl03
2.64xl03
1.96xl03
4.07xl04
9.31xl04
6.23xl04
8.45xl02
2.84xl03
1.24xl03
3.98X101
1.41x10°
S.SlxlO1
2.04x10°
2.32xl02
5.97X101
1.75xl02
3.99xl02
1.57X101
8.73X10"1
1.09xl02
4.95x10°
2.07x10°
4.34X10"1
3.02X101
6.63X101
1.25X101
0.00x10°
5.48X101
3.31xl03
1.29X101
Non-point
2.21xl04
7.02xl03
2.64xl04
2.10xl04
9.88xl04
2.76xl04
1.21xl05
9.37xl04
1.38xl04
1.14xl04
3.48xl03
9.67xl03
2.29xl05
l.SOxlO5
4.58X101
3.56xl02
1.75xl02
S.lOxlO2
1.74xl03
3.33xl02
2.84xl02
5.24xl02
2.54xl02
1.09xl03
6.17xl02
1.07xl03
7.12x10°
4.34xl02
8.59X101
1.44xl02
1.78xl02
3.88xl02
3.82X101
2.23xl02
1.29xl02
9.77xl02
6.40xl02
1.82xl03
Onroad
2.22xl04
1.77xl05
2.26xl04
2.94xl03
1.78xl05
7.07xl04
6.08xl04
5.86xl04
5.43xl04
3.75xl03
2.57xl03
1.38xl04
4.78xl05
2.70xl05
1.34X101
4.49x10°
9.75x10°
2.50X101
1.41xl02
2.90X101
8.79x10°
3.12X101
5.19X101
8.70X101
4.26X101
3.51x10°
0.00x10°
3.51x10°
4.17x10°
4.17x10°
2.64x10°
3.51x10°
0.00x10°
0.00x10°
0.00x10°
0.00x10°
0.00x10°
0.00x10°
Nonroad
1.03xl04
l.llxlO5
2.20xl04
2.75xl03
7.59xl04
4.64xl04
5.21xl04
3.78xl04
8.14xl04
1.21xl03
4.97xl03
3.06xl03
2.36xl05
2.10xl05
l.SlxlO1
1.76x10°
S.llxlO1
2.68X101
6.89X101
l.SOxlO1
8.50x10°
2.76X101
4.97X101
l.OlxlO2
S.lSxlO1
2.87x10°
5.16xlO"2
4.45x10°
2.45x10°
2.28x10°
2.58x10°
2.87x10°
4.77xlO"4
0.00x10°
4.78xlO"2
0.00x10°
0.00x10°
0.00x10°
Total
5.67xl04
3.02xl05
8.31xl04
2.77xl04
3.66xl05
1.57xl05
2.70xl05
2.36xl05
1.54xl05
1.90xl04
l.SOxlO4
6.71xl04
1.04xl06
7.22xl05
9.22xl02
3.20xl03
1.45xl03
4.01xl02
1.96xl03
4.15xl02
3.03xl02
8.14xl02
4.15xl02
1.45xl03
1.09xl03
LlOxlO3
8.05x10°
5.51xl02
9.75X101
1.52xl02
1.84xl02
4.25xl02
1.04xl02
2.35xl02
1.29xl02
1.03xl03
3.95xl03
1.83xl03
*Some portion of these could be MSAT HAPs but are not sufficiently speciated in the inventory to determine what
portion is MSAT POM HAP.
Onroad emissions are from NMIM. Nonroad aircraft, locomotive, and commercial marine vessel emissions are
from the 1999 NEI and all other other nonroad emissions are from NMIM. Onroad and nonroad emissions shown
are before any processing to create EMS-HAP ready inventories. Point and nonpoint emissions are from the 1999
NEI.
7
-------
Note that HAPs in the non-MSAT POM were included in the same groups as MSAT POM and
were included in emissions input into ASPEN as part of those groups.
One change made to modeled concentrations for NATA (and this effort) after EMS-HAP and
ASPEN was to the POM group 75002 concentrations for Oregon for area & other sources. The
area & other emissions for benzo(a)pyrene were incorrect in the 1999 NEI for Oregon. In order
to alleviate the problem, the national median area & other concentration (excluding Oregon) was
substituted for Oregon's area & other tract level concentrations.
2.2 1999 Precursor inventories
In order to calculate secondary concentrations for acetaldehyde, acrolein, formaldehyde, and
propionaldehyde after ASPEN simulations for the primary concentrations, the emissions for the
precursors also had to be processed through EMS-HAP and subsequently ASPEN for later
secondary contribution calculations. For those precursors that were not HAPs themselves (non-
HAP precursors) a separate precursor inventory was used. The precursor inventory used was the
same as that used for the 1999 NATA and was Version 2 of the NEI for VOC. Precursor
emissions were obtained by speciating VOC emissions from Version 2 of the NEI. The
speciation profiles are the same as those used for the 1996 NATA (see Section D. 1.2 in EMS-
HAP Version 2 User's Guide, [U.S. EPA, 2002a]). Table 4 lists the non-HAP precursors for
acetaldehyde, formaldehyde, and propionaldehyde. Precursors for acrolein are not listed because
the precursors for acrolein were inert and reactive 1,3-butadiene, an MSAT HAP already being
modeled.
-------
Table 4. Non-HAP precursors for the MS AT
1999. Totals are for the 50 states and District
secondary HAPs with source sector emissions for
of Columbia.
Precursor
1-Butene
1-2,3-Dimethyl butene
1-2-Ethylbutene
1-2-Methyl butene
1-3-Methyl butene
2-Butene
2-2-Methyl butene
1-Decene
Ethanol
Ethene
1-Heptene
2-Heptene
1-Hexene
2-Hexene
3-Hexene
Isoprene
1-Nonene
2-Nonene
1-Octene
2-Octene
1-Pentene
1-2,4,4-Trimethyl Pentene
1-2-Methylpentene
1-3-Methyl pentene
1-4-Methylpentene
2-Pentene
2-3-Methyl pentene
2-4-Methyl pentene
Propene
2-Methyl propene
Precursor for
Formaldehyde,
Propionaldehyde
Formaldehyde
Formaldehyde
Formaldehyde
Formaldehyde
Acetaldehyde
Acetaldehyde
Formaldehyde
Acetaldehyde
Formaldehyde
Formaldehyde
Acetaldehyde
Formaldehyde
Acetaldehvde
Propionaldehyde
Formaldehyde
Formaldehyde
Acetaldehyde
Formaldehyde
Acetaldehyde
Formaldehyde
Formaldehyde
Formaldehyde
Formaldehyde
Formaldehyde
Acetaldehyde,
Propionaldehyde
Acetaldehyde
Acetaldehyde
Acetaldehyde,
Formaldehyde
Formaldehyde
Inventory
Point
5.34xl03
LlOxlO2
5.40xl(r4
1.04xl02
S.lSxlO1
2.17xl03
V.SlxlO1
7.62xl02
4.39xl04
2.45xl04
6.02xl02
5.79xl02
1.25xl03
9.38X101
5.16xl02
3.16xl02
5.59X101
2.32x10°
3.72X101
1.76X101
2.69xl03
2.72X101
1.24xl02
8.65X101
9.63X101
2.70xl03
6.56X101
1.32xl02
1.57xl04
6.02xl02
Non-point
2.42xl04
S.OOxlO3
0.00x10°
4.75xl03
7.53xl03
7.50xl03
4.75xl03
0.00x10°
2.02xl05
3.50xl05
1.77xl02
1.77xl02
1.33xl03
1.33xl03
1.33xl03
4.01xl02
S.OlxlO2
0.00x10°
3.29X10'1
3.29X10'1
1.82xl04
0.00x10°
1.78xl03
1.78xl03
1.78xl03
4.55xl03
1.78xl03
1.78xl03
6.49xl04
8.90xl03
Onroad
4.15xl04
1.90xl03
0.00x10°
3.06xl04
4.63xl03
4.23xl04
8.97xl04
0.00x10°
2.28xl04
4.11xl05
1.52xl03
2.82xl03
1.55xl04
1.34xl04
5.37xl03
6.28xl03
3.58xl04
0.00x10°
1.96xl03
1.96xl03
3.23xl04
2.11xl04
3.79xl04
5.52xl04
6.07xl03
7.08xl04
1.43xl04
3.79xl04
1.71xl05
9.39xl04
Nonroad
1.25xl04
0.00x10°
2.55xl02
1.19xl04
2.95xl03
7.52xl03
1.97xl04
1.65xl02
3.30xl02
1.65xl05
l.SOxlO3
2.19xl03
6.50xl03
l.OlxlO4
4.37xl03
5.29xl03
7.08xl03
8.25X101
1.83xl03
8.36xl02
8.95xl03
0.00x10°
4.78xl03
4.13xl03
2.27xl03
2.22xl04
1.09xl04
8.95xl03
6.60xl04
1.92xl04
Total
8.36xl04
5.02xl03
2.55xl02
4.74xl04
1.52xl04
5.95xl04
1.14xl05
9.27xl02
2.69xl05
9.50xl05
4.11xl03
5.77xl03
2.46xl04
2.49xl04
1.16xl04
1.23xl04
4.32xl04
8.48X101
3.83xl03
2.82xl03
6.22xl04
2.11xl04
4.46xl04
6.12xl04
1.02xl04
l.OOxlO5
2.71xl04
4.88xl04
3.18xl05
1.23xl05
-------
This page intentionally blank
10
-------
3. Development of Future Year Mobile and Mobile-Related Emissions
3.1 Locomotive and commercial marine vessels
Emissions from locomotive and commercial marine vessels were projected similarly using ratios
computed from previously projected, multi-year, national-level, criteria pollutant emission data.
Because these previously projected emissions account for both activity growth and reductions
due to control programs, the term "projection factor" is used rather than "growth factor" to
describe the factor used to multiply base year emissions to obtain future year emissions. Table 5
shows the eight locomotive SCC codes in the 1999 NEI.
Table 5. Locomotive SCC codes in the 1999 NEI nonroad inventory.
SCC
2285000000
2285002000
2285002005
2285002006
2285002007
2285002008
2285002009
2285002010
Description
Mobile
Mobile
Mobile
Mobile
Mobile
Sources,
Sources,
Sources,
Sources,
Sources,
Mobile Sources,
(Amtrak)
Mobile
Mobile
Sources,
Sources,
Railroad Equipment,
Railroad Equipment,
Railroad Equipment,
Railroad Equipment,
Railroad Equipment,
Railroad Equipment,
Railroad Equipment,
Railroad Equipment,
All Fuels, Total
Diesel,
Diesel,
Diesel,
Diesel,
Diesel,
Diesel,
Diesel,
Total
Line
Line
Line
Line
Line
Yard
Haul
Haul
Haul
Haul
Haul
Locomotives
Locomotives:
Locomotives:
Locomotives:
Locomotives:
Class I operations
Class II/III operations
Passenger Trains
Commuter lines
Locomotives
Projection factors for the locomotive emissions, which account for both growth and reductions
due to control programs, were developed from the VOC and PM10 projected emissions shown in
Table 6. These were derived as part of the EPA's 2004 Clean Air Nonroad Diesel Rule (U.S.
EPA, 2004d).
11
-------
Table 6. Locomotive 50-State annual emissions trends (tons per year) and future year ratios.
Year
1999
2010
2015
2020
2030
voc
emissions
3.46xl04
3.16xl04
S.llxlO4
3.02xl04
2.86xl04
VOC ratio
(future year/1999)
1.0000
0.9127
0.8986
0.8725
0.8277
PM10
emissions
2.09xl04
1.51xl04
1.45xl04
1.37xl04
1.21xl04
PM10 ratio
(future year/1999)
1.0000
0.7240
0.6929
0.6542
0.5779
The projection factors were national level, in that they were computed using 50-state total
emission sums. In addition, they were applied to each pollutant across all SCC codes. That is,
all locomotive SCC codes with pollutants deemed VOC received the same projection factor. The
pollutants associated with locomotive emissions are shown in Table 7 with their assigned
projection factor for locomotives.
12
-------
Table 7. Locomotive MSAT HAPs.
HAP
1,3 -Butadiene
2,2,4-Trimethylpentane
Acetaldehyde
Acrolein
Benzene
Chromium
Ethyl benzene
Formaldehyde
Hexane
Manganese
Naphthalene
Nickel
POM (excluding Naphthalene)
Propionaldehyde
Styrene
Toluene
Xylene
Growth factor basis
VOC ratios
VOC ratios
VOC ratios
VOC ratios
VOC ratios
Metals (projection factors = 1.0)
VOC ratios
VOC ratios
VOC ratios
Metals (growth factors = 1.0)
PM ratios
Metals (projection factors = 1.0)
PM ratios
VOC ratios
VOC ratios
VOC ratios
VOC ratios
Metals were set to no growth (projection factor = 1.0, metals remain at 1999 levels) because little
activity change was expected in locomotives in the future. This is because metal emissions were
most likely the result of impurities in fuel and engine oil, and from engine wear, and it is not
known how these emissions would be impacted by controls, if it all. Several of the metals were
estimated using emission factor (EF) x Activity, and several were estimated as fractions of PM
emissions.
Projection factors for commercial marine vessels (CMV) were computed similarly to locomotive
projection factors, using 50-state emission summaries for various future years that were
developed as part of the EPA's 2004 Clean Air Nonroad Diesel Rule (U.S. EPA, 2004d). These
emissions summaries are shown in Table 8.
One difference, however, is that the projection factors for CMV were specific to both SCC
(diesel, residual, or no fuel information) and pollutant specific (VOC or PM). The SCC
13
-------
dependence on the projection factor was based on whether the SCC was related to diesel
emissions or residual emissions. There were three SCC codes used to assign the basis of the
projection factor for the SCC. Within the SCC, the projection factor used was dependent on
whether the HAP was VOC or PM. Table 8 lists the projection factors computed from the 50-
state total emission summaries commercial marine vessels.
Projection factors computed for the SCC codes in Table 8 were assigned to the five SCC codes
corresponding to the commercial marine vessels in the 1999 NEI. Each HAP within the SCC
category was then assigned the projection factor for VOC or PM. Table 9 lists the SCC codes
and HAPs associated with the commercial marine vessel emissions in the 1999 NEI.
Table 8. Commercial marine vessel 50-State annual emissions trends (tons per year) and future
year ratios used as projection factors.
SCC
2280000000
2280002000
228003000
Description
Mobile Sources,
Marine Vessels,
Commercial, All
Fuels, Total, All
Vessel Types
Mobile Sources,
Marine Vessels,
Commercial, Diesel,
Total, All Vessel
Types
Mobile Sources,
Marine Vessels,
Commercial,
Residual, Total, All
Vessel Types
Year
1999
2010
2015
2020
2030
1999
2010
2015
2020
2030
1999
2010
2015
2020
2030
VOC
emissions
3.21xl04
3.70xl04
3.95xl04
4.34xl04
5.51xl04
2.34xl04
2.46xl04
2.47xl04
2.53xl04
2.75xl04
8.73xl03
1.24xl04
1.48xl04
l.SlxlO4
2.75xl04
VOC ratio
(year/ 1999)
.0000
.1511
.2306
.3505
.7142
.0000
.0498
.0552
.0797
.7700
.0000
.4229
.7009
2.0765
3.1544
PM10
emissions
3.90xl04
4.37xl04
4.75xl04
5.35xl04
7.25xl04
1.99xl04
1.77xl04
1.69xl04
1.68xl04
1.83xl04
1.91xl04
2.60xl04
3.06xl04
3.67xl04
5.42xl04
PM10 ratio
(year/ 1999)
1.0000
1.1206
1.2165
1.3713
1.8581
1.0000
0.8893
0.8481
0.8428
1.9162
1.0000
1.3621
1.6011
1.9230
2.8416
14
-------
Table 9. Commercial marine vessel SCC codes, HAPs, and basis of projection factors.
SCC
2280000000
2280002100
2280002200
2280003100
2280003200
Description
Mobile Sources,
Marine Vessels,
Commercial, All
Fuels, Total, All
Vessel Types
Mobile Sources,
Marine Vessels,
Commercial, Diesel,
Diesel- port
emissions
Mobile Sources,
Marine Vessels,
Commercial, Diesel,
Diesel- underway
emissions
Mobile Sources,
Marine Vessels,
Commercial,
Residual, Residual -
port emissions
Mobile Sources,
Marine Vessels,
Commercial,
Residual, Residual -
underway emissions
HAPs
1,3-Butadiene, 2,2,4-Trimethylpentane,
Acetaldehyde, Benzene, Ethyl Benzene,
Formaldehyde, Hexane, Propionaldehyde,
Styrene, Toluene, Xylenes
Chromium, Manganese, Naphthalene,
Nickel
1,3-Butadiene, 2,2,4-Trimethylpentane,
Acetaldehyde, Acrolein, Benzene, Ethyl
Benzene, Formaldehyde, Hexane,
Propionaldehyde, Styrene, Toluene, Xylenes
Chromium, Manganese, Naphthalene,
Nickel, POM
2,2,4-Trimethylpentane, Acetaldehyde,
Acrolein, Benzene, Ethyl Benzene,
Formaldehyde, Hexane, Propionaldehyde,
Styrene, Toluene, Xylenes
Chromium, Manganese, Naphthalene,
Nickel, POM
2,2,4-Trimethylpentane, Acetaldehyde,
Acrolein, Benzene, Ethyl Benzene,
Formaldehyde, Hexane, Propionaldehyde,
Styrene, Toluene, Xylenes
Chromium, Manganese, Naphthalene,
Nickel, POM
2,2,4-Trimethylpentane, Acetaldehyde,
Acrolein, Benzene, Ethyl Benzene,
Formaldehyde, Hexane, Propionaldehyde,
Styrene, Toluene, Xylenes
Chromium, Manganese, Naphthalene,
Nickel, POM
Projection factor basis
VOC ratios for
2280000000 (all fuels)
PM ratios for 2280000000
(all fuels)
VOC ratios for
2280002000 (diesel)
PM ratios for 2280002000
(diesel)
VOC ratios for
2280002000 (diesel)
PM ratios for 2280002000
(diesel)
VOC ratios for
2280003000 (residual)
PM ratios for 2280003000
(residual)
VOC ratios for
2280003000 (residual)
PM ratios for 2280003000
(residual)
The general methodology used in applying the projection factors for locomotives and
commercial marine vessels are shown in Figure 2. Tables 10 and 11 present the nationwide 1999
and projected emissions for locomotives and commercial marine vessels, respectively. "All
HAPs" refers to all MSAT HAPs3.
Throughout this document, "All HAPs" refers to MSAT HAPs in all summary tables.
15
-------
.
Table of CAS to
SARD AD cross
reference for HAPs
1
Cross reference SARQAD L
and CAS numbers !
I
CMV and locomotive
projection factors
by CAS and SCC
I
Merge by SCC and CAS and multiply 199
emissions by projection factors for each to
calculate future year emissions
19
(e>
|
99 NEI nonroad inventory
Deluding aircraft)
Commercial marine locomotive projection factors
vessel projection factors by SAROAD and SCC
uy oAKUAJJ alia oCC
i
(T>
\j_j
CMV and locomotive ' '
; t- f + „ ^ ^ i i ^
by SAROAD and
SCC
©
Projected CMV and
locomotive emissions
Figure 2. Steps in projecting 1999 locomotive and commercial marine vessel emissions to
future years.
16
-------
Table 10. National locomotive emissions by SCC for selected HAPs and across all HAPs.
sec
2285000000
2285002000
2285002005
2285002006
2285002007
2285002008
2285002009
2285002010
Total
Locomotive
HAP
Acrolein
All HAPs
Acetaldehyde
Acrolein
Formaldehyde
All HAPs
1,3-Butadiene
Acetaldehyde
Benzene
Formaldehyde
Naphthalene
All HAPs
1,3-Butadiene
Acetaldehyde
Acrolein
Benzene
Formaldehyde
Naphthalene
All HAPs
1,3-Butadiene
Acetaldehyde
Acrolein
Benzene
Formaldehyde
Naphthalene
All HAPs
1,3-Butadiene
Acetaldehyde
Acrolein
Benzene
Formaldehyde
Naphthalene
All HAPs
1,3-Butadiene
Acetaldehyde
Acrolein
Benzene
Formaldehyde
Naphthalene
All HAPs
1,3-Butadiene
Acetaldehyde
Acrolein
Benzene
Formaldehyde
Naphthalene
All HAPs
1,3-Butadiene
Acetaldehyde
Acrolein
Benzene
Formaldehyde
Naphthalene
All HAPs
Emissions (tons/yr)
1999
2.44x10'
l.SlxlO2
6.05x10-'
3.13x10-'
1.79x10°
5.20x10°
4.51x10°
1.74xl02
4.75x10'
3.49xl02
2.14x10°
6. 80x1 02
8.97x10'
5.19xl02
8.74x10'
7.15x10'
1.20xl03
4.77x10'
2.71xl03
6.00x10°
3.47x10'
6.19x10°
4.78x10°
8.00x10'
3.19x10°
1.84xl02
1.94x10°
1.12x10'
1.91x10°
1.55x10°
2.59x10'
1.03x10°
5.88x10'
1.68x10°
9.73x10°
1.46x10°
1.34x10°
2.24x10'
8.94x10-'
4.92x10'
7.55x10°
6.55x10'
6.57x10°
1.25x10'
1.43xl02
5.33x10°
3.66xl02
l.llxlO2
8.15xl02
1.28xl02
1.39xl02
1.82xl03
6.03x10'
4.20xl03
2010
2.23x10'
1.38xl02
5.52x10-'
2.86x10"'
1.63x10°
4.75x10°
4.12x10°
1.59xl02
4.33x10'
3.19xl02
1.55x10°
6.21xl02
8.19x10'
4.74xl02
7.98x10'
6.52x10'
1.09xl03
3.45x10'
2.45xl03
5.47x10°
3.17x10'
5.65x10°
4.36x10°
7.30x10'
2.31x10°
1.67xl02
1.77x10°
1.03x10'
1.75x10°
1.41x10°
2.36x10'
7.47x10-'
5.33x10'
1.53x10°
8.88x10°
1.33x10°
1.22x10°
2.05x10'
6.47x10-'
4.46x10'
6.89x10°
5.98x10'
6.00x10°
1.14x10'
l.SlxlO2
3.86x10°
3.32xl02
1.02xl02
7.44x1 02
1.17xl02
1.27xl02
1.66xlOJ
4.37x10'
3.82xl03
2015
2.19x10'
1.36xl02
5.44x10-'
2.82x10"'
1.61x10°
4.67x10°
4.05x10°
1.57xl02
4.27x10'
3.14xl02
1.48x10°
6.11xl02
8.06x10'
4.66xl02
7.85x10'
6.42x10'
1.07xl03
3.31x10'
2.42x1 03
5.39x10°
3.12x10'
5.56x10°
4.29x10°
7.18x10'
2.21x10°
1.64xl02
1.74x10°
1.01x10'
1.72x10°
1.39x10°
2.33x10'
7.15x10-'
5.25x10'
1.51x10°
8.75x10°
1.31x10°
1.20x10°
2.02x10'
6.20x10-'
4.39x10'
6.79x10°
5.89x10'
5.91x10°
1.12x10'
1.29xl02
3.69x10°
3.27xl02
l.OOxlO2
7. 32x1 02
l.lSxlO2
1.25xl02
1.63xl03
4.18x10'
3.75xl03
2020
2.13x10'
1.32xl02
5.28x10-'
2.73x10"'
1.56x10°
4.54x10°
3.94x10°
1.52xl02
4.14x10'
3.05xl02
1.40x10°
5.93xl02
7.83x10'
4.53xl02
7.62x10'
6.24x10'
1.04xl03
3.12x10'
2. 34x1 03
5.23x10°
3.03x10'
5.40x10°
4.17x10°
6.98x10'
2.09x10°
1.59xl02
1.69x10°
9.80x10°
1.67x10°
1.35x10°
2.26x10'
6.75x10"'
5.09x10'
1.47x10°
8.49x10°
1.27x10°
1.17x10°
1.96x10'
5.85x10"'
4.26x10'
6.59x10°
5.72x10'
5.74x10°
1.09x10'
1.25xl02
3.49x10°
3.17xl02
9.72x10'
7.11xl02
1.12xl02
1.21xl02
1.59xl03
3.94x10'
3.64xl03
2030
2.02x10'
1.25xl02
5.01x10"'
2.59x10"'
1.48x10°
4.30x10°
3.73x10°
1.44xl02
3.93x10'
2.89xl02
1.23x10°
5.63xl02
7.43x10'
4.29xl02
7.23x10'
5.92x10'
9. 90x1 02
2.76x10'
2.22x1 03
4.96x10°
2.87x10'
5.12x10°
3.95x10°
6.62x10'
1.84x10°
l.SlxlO2
1.61x10°
9.30x10°
1.58x10°
1.28x10°
2.14x10'
5.96x10"'
4.82x10'
1.39x10°
8.06x10°
1.21x10°
1.11x10°
1.86x10'
5.17x10"'
4.04x10'
6.25x10°
5.43x10'
5.44x10°
1.03x10'
l.lSxlO2
3.08x10°
S.OOxlO2
9.22x10'
6.75xl02
1.06xl02
l.lSxlO2
l.SOxlO3
3.48x10'
3.45xl03
17
-------
Table 11. National commercial marine vessel emissions by SCC for selected HAPs and across
all HAPs.
SCC
2280000000
2280002100
2280002200
2280003100
2280003200
Total CMV
HAP
1,3 -Butadiene
Acetaldehyde
Benzene
Formaldehyde
Naphthalene
All HAPs
1,3 -Butadiene
Acetaldehyde
Acrolein
Benzene
Formaldehyde
Naphthalene
All HAPs
Acetaldehyde
Acrolein
Benzene
Formaldehyde
Naphthalene
All HAPs
Acetaldehyde
Acrolein
Benzene
Formaldehyde
Naphthalene
All HAPs
Acetaldehyde
Acrolein
Benzene
Formaldehyde
Naphthalene
All HAPs
1,3 -Butadiene
Acetaldehyde
Acrolein
Benzene
Formaldehyde
Naphthalene
All HAPs
Emissions (tons/yr)
1999
1.35x10-'
5.21x10°
1.42x10°
1.04x10'
6.38xlQ-2
2.03x10'
5.56x10°
1.48xl03
5.37x10'
4.04xl02
2. 97x1 03
3.26x10'
5.43xl03
4.59xl02
2.16x10'
1.26xl02
9.25xl02
1.07x10'
1.69xl03
S.OOxlO2
1.71x10'
7.95x10'
5.61xl02
1.61x10'
1.13xl03
1.22xl02
5.75x10°
3.34x10'
2.47x1 02
5.72x10°
4.66xl02
5.69x10°
2.36xl03
9.82x10'
6.44x1 02
4.72xl03
6.52x10'
8.74xl03
2010
1.55x10-'
6.00x10°
1.63x10°
1.20x10'
6.70xlQ-2
2.34x10'
5.83x10°
1.55xl03
5.64x10'
4.24x1 02
3. 12x1 03
2.90x10'
5.69x1 03
4. 82x1 02
2.27x10'
1.32xl02
9.71x1 02
9.53x10°
1.78xl03
4.26xl02
2.43x10'
1.13xl02
7.98xl02
2.20x10'
1.59xl03
1.74xl02
8.18x10°
4.76x10'
3. 51x1 02
7.79x10°
6. 59x1 02
5.99x10°
2.64xl03
1.12xl02
7.19xl02
5.25xl03
6.83x10'
9.74xl03
2015
1.66x10-'
6.41x10°
1.75x10°
1.28x10'
6.74xlQ-2
2.50x10'
5.86x10°
1.56xl03
5.66x10'
4.27x1 02
3.14xl03
2.76x10'
5.72xl03
4.85xl02
2.28x10'
1.33xl02
9.76xl02
9.09x10°
1.78xl03
S.lOxlO2
2.91x10'
1.35xl02
9. 54x1 02
2.58x10'
1.90xl03
2.08xl02
9.78x10°
5.69x10'
4.20xl02
9.16x10°
7. 87x1 02
6.03x10°
2.77xl03
l.lSxlO2
7.53xl02
S.SOxlO3
7.18x10'
1.02xl04
2020
1.82x10-'
7.04x10°
1.92x10°
1.41x10'
6. 89x1 Q-2
2.74x10'
6.00x10°
1.60xl03
5.80x10'
4.36xl02
3.21xl03
2.75x10'
5.85xl03
4.96xl02
2.34x10'
1.36xl02
9.98xl02
9.03x10°
1.83xl03
6.22xl02
3.55x10'
1.65xl02
1.16xl03
3.10x10'
2.32xl03
2.54xl02
1.19x10'
6.94x10'
5.13xl02
1. 10x10'
9.58xl02
6.18x10°
2.97xl03
1.29xl02
8.09xl02
5.90xl03
7.86x10'
l.lOxlO4
2030
2.31x10-'
8.94x10°
2.43x10°
1.79x10'
7.51xlQ-2
3.48x10'
6.54x10°
1.74xl03
6.32x10'
4.76xl02
3.50xl03
2.99x10'
6.37xl03
5. 40x1 02
2.55x10'
1.48xl02
1.09xl03
9.82x10°
1.99xl03
9.45xl02
5.40x10'
2.51xl02
1.77xl03
4.58x10'
3.50xl03
3.86xl02
1.81x10'
l.OSxlO2
7.79xl02
1.63x10'
1.45xl03
6.77x10°
3. 62x1 03
1.61xl02
9.82xl02
7.15xl03
1.02xl02
1.34xl04
18
-------
3.2 Aircraft and Aviation gasoline
Aircraft emissions were projected by using growth factors based on activity growth. These
growth factors were also used to project aviation gasoline source categories that were inventoried
in the NEI as stationary sources. Note that the projection of airport support equipment source
categories did not use this approach; they were projected using the National Mobile Inventory
Model (NMIM) as described in Section 3.3.3.
Aircraft growth factors were developed using data on itinerant (landing and take-off) operations
from the Terminal Area Forecast System (TAP) (FAA, 2004), http://www.apo.data.faa.gov/.
These data were accessed from the website in February 2004.
The TAP model provides itinerant activity for commercial aircraft, general aviation, air taxis,
and military aircraft. The four categories map directly to inventory categories for aircraft
emissions. We used the growth factors for general aviation for aviation gasoline emissions since
most aircraft gasoline is used with general aviation aircraft. Although the TAP model provides
activity at individual airports, the TAP data were summed to create growth factors at the national
level. This was done to smooth out the large-scale year-to-year changes in individual airport
itinerant data that were questionable. The same approach was used in the modeling for the Clean
Air Interstate (CAIR) rule (EPA, 2005a). Table 12 provides the nationally aggregated TAP
itinerant data for 1999, 2010, 2015 and 2020. Note that the "all operations" data is simply the
sum of commercial aircraft, air taxi, general aviation, and military operations.
Table 12. TAP landing and take-off data for 1999, 2010, 2015, and 2020.
Year
1999
2010
2015
2020
Commercial
14,769,055
15,199,253
16,844,216
18,584,876
Air Taxi
14,177,496
17,566,653
18,943,304
20,347,985
General
Aviation
44,413,777
45,516,733
47,366,817
49,223,017
Military
3,977,646
4,157,730
4,159,893
4,162,058
All
Operations
77,337,974
82,440,369
87,314,230
92,317,936
Growth factors were computed for 2010, 2015 and 2020 by dividing each year's TAP data by the
TAP data for 1999. The TAP data did not cover 2030; growth factor for 2030 was calculated by
using the same rate of growth between 2015 and 2020 and extrapolating to 2030 using Equation
1:
GF2030 = GF2020 + ((2030- 2020) x (GF2020 - GF2015) + (2020- 2015))
where GF is the growth factor for the respective years.
(1)
The growth factor assignments and growth factors for each of the airport related SCC codes are
shown in Table 13.
19
-------
Table 13. Airport related SCC codes, assigned growth factor basis, and growth factors for MSAT study years.
SCC
2265008000
2265008005
2267008000
2267008005
2268008000
2270008000
2270008005
2275000000
2275060000
2275020000
2275070000
2275050000
2275900000
2501080000*
2501080050*
2501080100*
2275001000
Description
Airport Support Equipment, Total, Off-highway 4-
stroke
Airport Support Equipment, Off-highway 4-stroke
Airport Ground Support Equipment, All, LPG
Airport Ground Support Equipment, LPG
Airport Ground Support Equipment, CNG, All
Airport Service Equipment, Total, Off-highway
Diesel
Airport Service Equipment, Airport Support
Equipment, Off-highway Diesel
All Aircraft Types and Operations
Air Taxi, Total
Commercial Aircraft, Total
Aircraft Auxiliary Power Units, Total
General Aircraft, Total
Aircraft Refueling: All Fuels, All Processes
Aviation Gasoline Distribution: Stage 1 & II
Aviation Gasoline Storage -Stage I
Aviation Gasoline Storage -Stage II
Military Aircraft, Total
Aviation type (Growth factor basis)
No factor. Projected emissions in NMTM
(see 3.3.3)
No factor. Projected emissions in NMTM
(see 3.3.3)
No factor. Projected emissions in NMIM
(see 3.3.3)
No factor. Projected emissions in NMIM
(see 3.3.3)
No factor. Projected emissions in NMIM
(see 3.3.3)
No factor. Projected emissions in NMIM
(see 3.3.3)
No factor. Projected emissions in NMIM
(see 3.3.3)
All operations
Air Taxi
Commercial Aviation
Commercial Aviation
General Aviation
General Aviation
General Aviation
General Aviation
General Aviation
Military Aviation
2010
No
factor
No
factor
No
factor
No
factor
No
factor
No
factor
No
factor
1.0660
1.2391
1.0291
1.0291
1.0248
1.0248
1.0248
1.0248
1.0248
1.0453
Growth
2015
No
factor
No
factor
No
factor
No
factor
No
factor
No
factor
No
factor
.1290
.3362
.1405
.1405
.0665
.0665
.0665
.0665
.0665
.0458
Factor
2020
No
factor
No
factor
No
factor
No
factor
No
factor
No
factor
No
factor
1.1937
1.4352
1.2584
1.2584
1.1083
1.1083
1.1083
1.1083
1.1083
1.0464
2030
No
factor
No
factor
No
factor
No
factor
No
factor
No
factor
No
factor
1.3231
1.6334
1.4941
1.4941
1.1919
1.1919
1.1919
1.1919
1.1919
1.0475
Stationary sources in the non-point inventory. All others are nonroad sources.
20
-------
Growth factor files were created for each year, 2010, 2015, 2020, and 2030, using the SCC
growth factor file format for EMS-HAP Version 3.0 described in Appendix B of the EMS-HAP
Version 3.0 User's Guide (U.S. EPA, 2004b). For this format, each SCC was assigned a code
describing its growth method, basically the "growth factor basis" column in Table 14. The
format of the file is shown in Figure 3. The naming convention of the aircraft and aviation
gasoline growth factor files is gf99scca_XX.txt where XX is the two-digit year for 2010, 2015,
2020, and 2030.
1999 Base Year EGAS SCC Growth Factors for 2010, Created 12APRIL04 BEGIN SCC-REMIXREF on line 3.
GROWTH FACTORS BEGIN ON LINE 18.
2265008000 N/A projected emissions will be supplied with NMIM
2265008005 N/A projected emissions will be supplied with NMIM
2267008000 N/A projected emissions will be supplied with NMIM
2267008005 N/A projected emissions will be supplied with NMIM
2268008000 N/A projected emissions will be supplied with NMIM
2270008000 N/A projected emissions will be supplied with NMIM
2270008005 N/A projected emissions will be supplied with NMIM
2275000000 TAP for ALL OPERATIONS (p_tot)
2275060000 TAP for Air Taxi
2275020000 TAP for Commercial Aviation
2275070000 TAP for Commercial Aviation
2275050000 TAP for General Aviation
2275900000 TAP for General Aviation
2501080000 TAP for General Aviation
2501080050 TAP for General Aviation
2501080100 TAP for General Aviation
2275001000 TAP for Military Aviation
00 000 1.0000 N/A projected emissions will be supplied with NMIM
00 000 1.0660 TAP for ALL OPERATIONS (p_tot)
00 000 1.2391 TAP for Air Taxi
00 000 1.0291 TAP for Commercial Aviation
00 000 1.0248 TAP for General Aviation
00 OOP 1.0453 TAP for Military Aviation
Figure 3. Format of the aircraft growth factor file. 2010 growth factors shown as example.
EMS-HAP V3 was used to apply the growth factors to the aircraft and aviation gasoline sources.
Aircraft emissions were projected by first reducing the nonroad airport-related emissions to
exclude the airport support equipment emissions, which were projected using NMIM future
emissions data as described in Section 3.3.3. The reduction of the data was done on the
temporally allocated 1999 NEI emissions for NATA (National Air Toxics Assessment). These
emissions had previously been processed through the appropriate EMS-HAP programs, COP AX,
PtDataProc, PtModelProc, and PtTemporal for the 1999 NATA [see EMS-HAP User's Guide for
details, (U.S. EPA, 2004b)]. After reduction was completed, the emissions were processed
through the EMS-HAP program PtGrowCntl for 2010, 2015, 2020, and 2030, using the TAF-
derived growth factors described above.
Aviation gasoline emissions (SCCs shown in Table 13 with # footnotes) that had been processed
through the appropriate EMS-HAP programs for the 1999 NATA, were projected using the
21
-------
EMS-HAP program PtGrowCntl for 2010, 2015 and 2020, using the TAF-derived growth factors
described above. Aviation gasoline emissions were not projected to 2030 but it was decided to
use 2020 projected emissions for 2030 for all stationary sources because of uncertainty in the
2030 projection and growth factors. Aviation gasoline emissions were also adjusted after
projection for 2015 and 2020, as well as for 1999 as part of an adjustment of gasoline
distribution emissions. This adjustment process is discussed in Section 4.3.
A flowchart of the projection processing is shown in Figure 4.
(J, Airports (nonroad)
PtTemporal output
(temporal)
i
r
Subset inventory to not
include airport support
equipment
[
I PtGrowCntl I
1 j
1
4444
2010 2015 1
inventory inventory 1
2020 2030
inventory inventory
Airports (nonpoint)
PtTemporal output
(temporal)
i
r i
I PtGrowCntl
~|
444
2010 1 2015 2020 1
inventory 1 inventory inventory 1
Figure 4. Flowchart of a) aircraft and b) aviation gasoline distribution emissions projections.
Projected aircraft and aviation gasoline distribution emissions by SCC are shown in Table 14.
22
-------
Table 14. Aircraft and aviation gasoline distribution emissions for selected HAPs and all HAPs
by SCC. Aviation gasoline distribution emissions for 2030 are set equal to 2020.
sec
2275000000
2275001000
2275020000
2275050000
2275060000
2501080000*
2501080050*
2501080100*
Total
HAP
1,3-Butadiene
Acetaldehyde
Acrolein
Benzene
Formaldehyde
Naphthalene
All HAPs
1,3-Butadiene
Acetaldehyde
Acrolein
Benzene
Formaldehyde
Naphthalene
All HAPs
1,3-Butadiene
Acetaldehyde
Acrolein
Benzene
Formaldehyde
Naphthalene
All HAPs
1,3-Butadiene
Acetaldehyde
Acrolein
Benzene
Formaldehyde
Naphthalene
All HAPs
1,3-Butadiene
Acetaldehyde
Acrolein
Benzene
Formaldehyde
Benzene
All HAPs
Benzene
Naphthalene
All HAPs
Benzene
Naphthalene
All HAPs
Benzene
Naphthalene
All HAPs
1,3-Butadiene
Acetaldehyde
Acrolein
Benzene
Formaldehyde
Naphthalene
All HAPs
Emissions (tons/yr)
1999
5.59x10°
1.21x10'
5.53x10°
9.76x10°
3.99x10'
1.32x10°
1.04xl02
1.93xl02
5. 06x1 02
2.47xl02
2.13xl02
1.63xl03
6.15x10'
3.13xl03
5.25xl02
1.36xl03
6.62xl02
5. 74x1 02
4.38xl03
1.64xl02
8.44xl03
5.98x10'
8.53x10'
3.29x10'
1.86xl02
2.85xl02
1.09xl02
1.53xl03
3.99x10'
5.79x10'
2.17x10'
1.19xl02
2.06xl02
1.21xl02
l.OSxlO3
4.15xlO'2
7.98xlO'3
1.13x10°
2.87xl02
1.59x10'
1.67xl03
1.99x10'
1.10x10°
1.16xl02
8.24xl02
2.02xl03
9.68xl02
1.41xl03
6.55xl03
4.73xl02
1.61xl04
2010
5.96x10°
1.29x10'
5.90x10°
1.04x10'
4.25x10'
1.41x10°
l.llxlO2
2.02x1 02
5. 29x1 02
2. 58x1 02
2.23xl02
1.71xl03
6.43x10'
3. 27x1 03
5. 40x1 02
1.40xl03
6.81xl02
5. 91x1 02
4.51xl03
1.69xl02
8.68x1 03
6.12x10'
8.74x10'
3.37x10'
1.91xl02
2. 93x1 02
l.llxlO2
1.57xl03
4.95x10'
7.17x10'
2.69x10'
1.47xl02
2. 55x1 02
l.SOxlO2
1.33xl03
4.25xlO'2
S.lSxlO'3
1.15x10°
2. 94x1 02
1.63x10'
1.71x1 03
2.04x10'
1.13x10°
1.19xl02
8. 59x1 02
2.10xl03
l.Olxl O3
1.48xl03
6. 81x1 03
5. 13x1 02
1.68xl04
2015
6.31x10°
1.37x10'
6.24x10°
1.10x10'
4.51x10'
1.49x10°
1.17xl02
2.02xl02
5. 29x1 02
2.58xl02
2.23xl02
1.71xl03
6.43x10'
3. 27x1 03
5.99xl02
1.55xl03
7.54xl02
6.55xl02
5. OOxl O3
1.87xl02
9.62xl03
6.37x10'
9.10x10'
3.51x10'
1.99xl02
3. 04x1 02
1.16xl02
1.63xl03
5.34x10'
7.73x10'
2.90x10'
1.59xl02
2.75xl02
1.62xl02
1.44xl03
4.43xlO'2
S.SlxlO'3
1.20x10°
3. 06x1 02
1.70x10'
1.78xl03
2.12x10'
1.18x10°
1.24xl02
9.24xl02
2.26xl03
l.OSxlO3
1.57xl03
7.33xl03
5. 48x1 02
l.SOxlO4
2020
6.68x10°
1.45x10'
6.60x10°
1.16x10'
4.76x10'
1.58x10°
1.24xl02
2.02xl02
5.30xl02
2.58xl02
2.23xl02
1.71xl03
6.44x10'
3. 27x1 03
6.61xl02
1.71xl03
8.32xl02
7.22x1 02
5.52xl03
2.06xl02
1.06xl04
6.62x10'
9.46x10'
3.64x10'
2.06xl02
3.16xl02
1.20xl02
1.70xl03
5.73x10'
8.30x10'
3.11x10'
1.71xl02
2.96xl02
1.74xl02
1.55xl03
4.60xlO'2
8. 84x1 0'3
1.25x10°
3.18xl02
1.77x10'
1.85xl03
2.20x10'
1.22x10°
1.29xl02
9.93xl02
2.43xl03
1.16xl03
1.67xl03
7.89xl03
5.85xl02
1.92xl04
2030
7.40x10°
1.60x10'
7.32x10°
1.29x10'
5.28x10'
1.75x10°
1.37xl02
2.02xl02
5.30xl02
2.58xl02
2.23xl02
1.71xl03
6.44x10'
3.27xl03
7. 84x1 02
2.03xl03
9.88xl02
8.58xl02
6.55xl03
2.45xl02
1.26xl04
7.12x10'
1.02xl02
3.92x10'
2.22x1 02
3.40xl02
1.29xl02
1.83xl03
6.52x10'
9.45x10'
3.54x10'
1.94xl02
3.36xl02
1.98xl02
1.76xl03
4.60xlO'2
8.84X10'3
1.25x10°
3.18xl02
1.77x10'
1.85xl03
2.20x10'
1.22x10°
1.29xl02
1.13xl03
2.77xl03
1.33xl03
1.85xl03
8.99xl03
6. 57x1 02
2.16xl04
emissions reflect pre-adjustment levels
23
-------
3.3 Projection of onroad and nonroad categories using NMIM
3.3.1 Description of NMIM
For all mobile source categories except commercial marine vessels, locomotives, and
aircraft (Sections 3.1 and 3.2), EPA's Office of Transportation and Air Quality's (OTAQ) new
emissions inventory modeling system for highway and nonroad sources, the National Mobile
Inventory Model (NMIM2005) (U. S. EPA, 2005b; Cook et al. 2004) was used to generate
emission data for projections. NMIM2005 develops county level inventories using
MOBILE6.2, NONROAD2005, and model inputs stored in data files. NONROAD2005 includes
a number of improvements over NONROAD 2004, which was used in the proposed rule. These
improvements include new evaporative categories for tank permeation, hose permeation, hot
soak, and running loss emissions, a revised methodology for calculating diurnal emissions, and
improvements to allocation of emissions from recreational marine and construction equipment.
NMIM2005 was also modified to include the hydrocarbon start emission adjustment factors
discussed in Section 2.1.1.1 of the Regulatory Impact Analysis for the final Mobile Source Air
Toxics Rule. Since the algorithms used to calculate toxic to hydrocarbon emission ratios in
MOBILE6.2 do not vary with temperature, reductions in hydrocarbon emissions result in
proportional reductions in air toxic emissions. In addition to criteria pollutants, NMIM can
currently produce 13 gaseous hydrocarbons, 16 poly cyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, 4 metal
compounds and 17 dioxin and furan congeners, for any calendar year 1999 through 2050.
Future year MOBILE6.2 and NONROAD inputs include future year vehicle miles traveled
(VMT) and fuel parameters, and future year equipment populations. Future year VMT for years
2010, 2020 and 2030 were developed at the county-level using data from the Energy Information
Administration's National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Transportation Model and
Regional Economic Models Inc. population growth (Mullen and Neumann, 2004). VMT for
intermediate years were interpolated, using 1999 as the base year. This same approach and
projected VMT were used for the CAIR rule. Projection year fuel parameters were developed
using results of several refinery modeling analyses conducted to assess impacts of fuel control
programs on fuel properties (MathPro, 1998; 1999a, 1999b). The projection year fuel parameters
were calculated by applying adjustment factors to the base year parameters (Eastern Research
Group, 2003). In addition, NMEVI uses monthly rather than seasonal fuel parameters, and
parameters for spring and fall months were estimated by interpolating from summer and winter
data. Documentation of the fuel parameters used in NMIM was compiled in 2003 (Eastern
Research Group, 2003) and then subsequently, a number of changes were made, based on
comments from States. These changes are documented in the change log for NMIM, dated May
14, 2004. This change log is included in the docket for this rule (EPA-HQ-OAR-2005-0036),
along with the original documentation. In general, multiplicative adjustment factors were used
to calculate future year gasoline parameters (i.e., future year parameter = base year parameter x
adjustment factor). However, additive adjustment factors were used to calculate future year
parameters for E200, E300, and oxygenate market shares (i.e., future year parameter = base year
parameter + adjustment factor). The database used for this assessment assumes no Federal ban
on MTBE, but does include State bans. Also, it did not include the renewable fuels mandate in
the recent Energy Policy Act.
24
-------
3.3.2 Onroadprojections using NMIM
Before the creation of ASPEN ready emissions files, the NMIM emissions had to be formatted
for input into EMS-HAP. The NMIM emissions were initially in SQL databases. SQL was used
to create tab delimited ASCII text files that could be easily read into SAS®. The creation of
SAS® datasets were created for each year: 1999, 2010, 2015, 2020, and 2030. These datasets
were also ready for input into EMS-HAP. However, 2010 would not be processed through
EMS-HAP since it was not an air quality modeling year.
For 1999 and 2010, there was only one inventory to process, the base year emissions. For the
other years, 2015, 2020, and 2030, there were four inventories to process: 1) base case, 2) fuels
control case, 3) vehicle controls, and 4) cumulative controls from fuels and vehicle controls. For
the purposes of air quality and exposure modeling, only the base and cumulative controls
emissions would be processed through EMS-HAP to create ASPEN ready emissions. Emissions
processing comprised of the following steps.
• Imported the NMEVI emissions into SAS®. The NMIM emissions were for gasoline
vehicles and were broken out by exhaust and evaporative type for each FIPS, SCC, and
pollutant
• Added refueling emissions for light duty gasoline vehicles (LDGV). This step is
described in detail below
• Appended diesel vehicle emissions from the NMIM emissions from the proposed MSAT
rule
• Summed across the emissions types, exhaust, evaporative, and refueling, to get emissions
for each FIPS, SCC, and CAS combination
A general flow of the processing is shown in Figure 5.
25
-------
J"
PM 10 I
PM2.5
4
Exhaust anc
non-LDGV
evaporative
NMIM onroad emissions
o i
xjx
Split into 3
datasets
"""1 "
4 4
k HAPs VOC — *j Subset 1 » LDGV Evaporativ
1
! Split ;
'-}-' (?)
X X
Benzene Other HAPs ^ Calculate r
LDGV LDGV 1 FIPS/SCC/
evaporative evaporative
HAP evaporative and refue
© 1
^"^ fcj ,-, . . • . 1 ,
{
onroad emissions - Sort and sum by - ,
^ ' ^ onroaa
read)7 for EMS H4P FIPS'SCCTAS
©
Refueling emissions
4 1
VOC benzene
efueling emissions by
HAP
T
1
ling emissions ^— '
aset ^ NMIM onroad diesel emissions
Figure 5. General steps in processing of onroad NMIM emissions for EMS-HAP input
3.3.2.1 Calculation of refueling emissions for light-duty gasoline vehicles
Refueling emissions were calculated for each of the inventories, 1999 base, future year reference,
future year fuels controls, future year vehicle controls, and future year cumulative controls. For
each of the vehicle control inventories, the refueling emissions were the same as the reference
case since they were affected by only fuel controls. For 1999 base and the future year reference
inventories, reference (no controls) refueling emissions were used. For the fuel and cumulative
control inventories, controlled refueling emissions were used. For benzene, county specific
benzene refueling emissions were used for 2015, 2020, and 2030. For 1999 and 2010, benzene
refueling emissions were not available. Therefore, 2015 benzene refueling emissions were
backcast to 1999 and 2010 by multiplying the county specific 2015 benzene refueling emissions
by the ratio of the 1999 or 2010 county specific VOC refueling emissions to the county specific
2015 VOC refueling emissions. This calculation is shown in Equation 2.
„
nenzene
I VDC*
V Ly>-
xxxx !
XXXXX ,FIPSYYYYY
(2)
26
-------
where XXXX is 1999 or 2010, and YYYY represents the FIPS code of a county. Equation 2
represents reference refueling emissions. Benzene processing steps for 1999 and 2010 are shown
in Figure 6a.
For each year and control scenario, the county level reference or control benzene refueling
emissions were merged with the LDGV non-refueling emissions. To add the appropriate
tonnage of the county level benzene refueling emissions, a ratio of each LDGV SCC code's
evaporative emissions to the county total LDGV evaporative emissions was calculated and then
multiplied with the benzene refueling emissions,
, , ,
refuel, XXXX, YYYYY, 220WmZZZ ~ refuel,XXXX , YYYYY X r> \?)
evap, XXXX , YYYYY ,220WmZZZ
r>
\ ^enZeevap, XXXX, YYYYY, LDGV
where XXXX is the year, YYYYY is the FIPS code, 2201001ZZZ is an LDGV SCC, and LDGV
represents total LDGV emissions for the county for benzene.
For all other HAPs, VOC refueling emissions were scaled using the ratio of the HAP specific
LDGV evaporative emissions to the VOC LDGV evaporative emissions for each SCC. The
following steps were employed to calculate the HAP specific refueling emissions for LDGV
SCC emissions:
1 . Calculated the ratio of VOC evaporative emissions for a particular LDGV SCC code
to the total county VOC LDGV evaporative emissions.
I voc*
V ^^evap, XXXX, YYYYY, 220WmZZZ
refuel, XXXX, YYYYY, 22WM\ZZZ
, XXXX, YYYYY, LDGV
2. Multiplied the ratio calculated in step 1 by the county VOC refueling emissions to
yield SCC specific VOC refueling emissions.
refuel, XXXX, YYYYY, 220W01ZZZ ~ refuel, XXXX , YYYYY X refuel , XXXX , YYYYY ,SCC220\(X>\ZZZ
3. Multiplied the SCC specific VOC refueling emissions by the ratio of HAP
evaporative emissions to VOC evaporative emissions for the SCC code.
( NAP \
_ rl^irevap, XXXX, YYYYY, 2201001ZZZ
^"•"refuel, XXXX, YYYYY, 220\
-------
HAP
±±-ri± ,YYYYY,2201001ZZZ
_ T7-.Q.^t eruF,^^ ,11 m ,^vivviz.z.z.
rl^ir refuel,XXXX,YYYYY,220\(X>\ZZZ ~ V ^^ refuel,XXXX,YYYYY A I T^>^ I VV
Other HAP refueling calculations are shown in Figure 6b.
Once refueling emissions were calculated for all HAPs with LDGV evaporative emissions, the
refueling emissions were added to the exhaust and evaporative emissions by FIPS, SCC and
CAS. This resulted in a total emissions for each FIPS, SCC, and CAS combination. The
emissions were then ready for EMS-HAP processing. Summaries of the refueling emissions are
shown in Table 15 and summaries of onroad emissions are shown in Tables 16 through 19.
Diesel emissions are shown only in the base inventories as they do not change with controls but
they are included in the total onroad emissions for the control emissions. In the tables, LDGV
emissions include the refueling emissions. Full emission summaries can be found in
onroad_0906.xls and onroad_pivot_0905.xls in the MS AT rule docket, EPA-HQ-OAR-2005-
0036.
28
-------
NMIMHAPs
Subset to
benzene LDGV
evaporative
emissions
Benzene and VOC
refueling emissions
Merge by FIPS and
emissions
Merged evaporative
and refueling
emissions
add refueling and
evaporative emissions by
FIPS/SCC/CAS
Calculate ratio of SCC
level to county total
evaporative LDGV
emissions and multiply
by county level refueling
emissions to yield SCC
level refueling emissions
a
Subset to LDGV
evaporative
emissions
Merge by FIPS and
retain VOC refueling
emissions
Calculate ratio of HAP
SCC level to VOC
county total evaporative
LDGV emissions and
multiply by county leve
VOC refueling emissions
to yield HAP SCC level
refueling emissions
Benzene and VOC
refueling emissions
add refueling and
evaporative emissions by
FIPS/SCC/CAS
0
Figure 6. Refueling calculations for a) benzene 1999 and 2010, and b) other HAPs.
29
-------
Table 15. Calculated refueling emissions by HAP for base and controlled strategies.
HAP
2,2,4-Trimethylpentane
Benzene
Ethyl Benzene
Hexane
MTBE
Naphthalene
Toluene
Xylenes
Year
1999
Base
4.88xl03
2.32xl03
2.21xl03
6.30xl03
3.53xl03
1.24xl02
1.15xl04
6.36xl03
2010
Base
2.18xl03
1.02xl03
9.60xl02
2.71xl03
2.16xl03
5.52X101
4.97xl03
2.75xl03
Control
2.18xl03
6.05xl02
9.60xl02
2.71xl03
2.16xl03
5.52X101
4.97xl03
2.75xl03
2015
Base
1.53xl03
7.01xl02
6.67xl02
1.86xl03
1.55xl03
3.89X101
3.43xl03
1.91xl03
Control
1.53xl03
4.22xl02
6.67xl02
1.86xl03
1.55xl03
3.89X101
3.43xl03
1.91xl03
2020
Base
1.38xl03
6.22xl02
5.94xl02
1.64xl03
1.34xl03
3.49X101
3.04xl03
1.70xl03
Control
1.38xl03
3.76xl02
5.94xl02
1.64xl03
1.34xl03
3.49X101
3.04xl03
1.70xl03
2030
Base
1.39xl03
6.18xl02
5.93xl02
1.62xl03
1.34xl03
3.52X101
3.02xl03
1.70xl03
Control
1.39xl03
3.77xl02
5.93xl02
1.62xl03
1.34xl03
3.52X101
3.02xl03
1.70xl03
30
-------
Table 16. Base inventory emissions by vehicle type and total onroad for selected HAPs and all HAPs.
Year
1999
2010
2015
2020
HAP
1,3 -Butadiene
Acetaldehyde
Acrolein
Benzene
Formaldehyde
Naphthalene
All HAPs
1,3 -Butadiene
Acetaldehyde
Acrolein
Benzene
Formaldehyde
Naphthalene
All HAPs
1,3 -Butadiene
Acetaldehyde
Acrolein
Benzene
Formaldehyde
Naphthalene
All HAPs
1,3 -Butadiene
Acetaldehyde
Acrolein
Benzene
Formaldehyde
Naphthalene
All HAPs
Vehicle Type
HDDV
1.49xl03
7.03xl03
8.55xl02
2.56xl03
1.91xl04
1.67xl02
3.70xl04
9.15xl02
4.32xl03
5.25xl02
1.57xl03
1.17xl04
6.46X101
2.26xl04
7.94xl02
3.75xl03
4.55xl02
1.37xl03
1.02xl04
S.lSxlO1
1.96xl04
7.89xl02
3.72xl03
4.53xl02
1.36xl03
l.OlxlO4
1.92X101
1.95xl04
HDGV
LlSxlO3
1.41xl03
6.89xl02
6.67xl03
6.14xl03
7.73xl02
6.67xl04
1.97xl02
3.90xl02
7.59X101
2.38xl03
1.21xl03
4.00xl02
2.13xl04
9.90X101
2.48xl02
2.41X101
1.72xl03
6.88xl02
2.48xl02
1.48xl04
7.84X101
2.04xl02
1.71X101
1.40xl03
5.56xl02
1.95xl02
1.16xl04
LDDT
8.99X101
1.23xl02
S.SOxlO1
2.00xl02
3.86xl02
7.00x10°
1.21xl03
4.37X101
5.98X101
1.70X101
9.72X101
1.88xl02
2.17x10°
5.89xl02
3.93X101
5.37X101
1.53X101
8.73X101
1.68xl02
1.40x10°
5.28xl02
S.SOxlO1
4.79X101
1.36X101
7.79X101
1.50xl02
8.86X10'1
4.70xl02
LDDV
S.OSxlO1
6.90X101
1.96X101
1.12xl02
2.17xl02
6.92x10°
6.88xl02
3.03x10°
4.15x10°
1.18x10°
6.74x10°
l.SOxlO1
3.47X10'1
4.13X101
1.72x10°
2.36x10°
6.70X10'1
3.83x10°
7.39x10°
1.57X10'1
2.34X101
1.20x10°
1.63x10°
4.65X10'1
2.66x10°
5.13x10°
8.47xlO'2
1.62X101
LDGT1
5.31xl03
6.05xl03
6.23xl02
4.64xl04
1.57xl04
7.60xl02
3.54xl05
3.82xl03
4.81xl03
4.57xl02
3.95xl04
9.70xl03
6.40xl02
2.80xl05
3.93xl03
5.07xl03
4.72xl02
4.18xl04
l.OOxlO4
6.97xl02
2.88xl05
4.52xl03
5.84xl03
5.38xl02
4.74xl04
1.15xl04
7.69xl02
3.20xl05
LDGT2
3.53xl03
3.43xl03
3.26xl02
2.14xl04
9.92xl03
4.89xl02
1.88xl05
1.99xl03
2.37xl03
2.31xl02
1.97xl04
4.85xl03
2.67xl02
1.44xl05
1.91xl03
2.33xl03
2.26xl02
2.01xl04
4.66xl03
2.73xl02
1.41xl05
2.06xl03
2.50xl03
2.40xl02
2.11xl04
4.96xl03
2.81xl02
1.44xl05
LDGV
1.20xl04
1.16xl04
1.29xl03
1.06xl05
2.85xl04
1.83xl03
8.37xl05
4.28xl03
5.04xl03
5.03xl02
4.66xl04
1.06xl04
8.61xl02
3.49xl05
3.74xl03
4.50xl03
4.42xl02
4.02xl04
9.52xl03
7.43xl02
2.91xl05
3.60xl03
4.36xl03
4.25xl02
3.83xl04
9.21xl03
6.93xl02
2.71xl05
MC
2.02xl02
1.52xl02
1.26X101
6.46xl02
5.16xl02
2.34X101
7.27xl03
2.24xl02
l.SOxlO2
l.SSxlO1
6.69xl02
5.67xl02
2.46X101
7.90xl03
2.43xl02
1.96xl02
l.SlxlO1
7.28xl02
6.17xl02
2.67X101
8.59xl03
2.63xl02
2.13xl02
1.63X101
7.87xl02
6.67xl02
2.89X101
9.29xl03
Total
onroad
2.39xl04
2.98xl04
3.84xl03
1.84xl05
8.05xl04
4.06xl03
1.49xl06
1.15xl04
1.72xl04
1.82xl03
l.llxlO5
3.89xl04
2.26xl03
8.26xl05
l.OSxlO4
1.61xl04
1.65xl03
1.06xl05
3.59xl04
2.02xl03
7.63xl05
1.14xl04
1.69xl04
1.70xl03
LlOxlO5
3.72xl04
1.99xl03
7.76xl05
31
-------
Table 16. Continued
Year
2030
HAP
1,3 -Butadiene
Acetaldehyde
Acrolein
Benzene
Formaldehyde
Naphthalene
All HAPs
Vehicle Type
HDDV
8.99xl02
4.24xl03
5.16xl02
1.55xl03
1.15xl04
1.57X101
2.22xl04
HDGV
6.34X101
1.73xl02
1.19X101
1.21xl03
4.60xl02
1.76xl02
1.02xl04
LDDT
2.90X101
3.96X101
LlSxlO1
6.44X101
1.24xl02
5.96X10"1
3.89xl02
LDDV
1.17x10°
1.60x10°
4.54X10"1
2.60x10°
5.01x10°
7.46xlO"2
l.SSxlO1
LDGT1
5.41xl03
7.04xl03
6.44xl02
5.63xl04
1.38xl04
9.00xl02
3.76xl05
LDGT2
2.34xl03
2.88xl03
2.71xl02
2.37xl04
5.65xl03
3.15xl02
1.60xl05
LDGV
4.31xl03
5.25xl03
5.08xl02
4.55xl04
LlOxlO4
8.17xl02
3.19xl05
MC
3.18xl02
2.58xl02
1.97X101
9.47xl02
8.06xl02
3.49X101
1.12xl04
Total
onroad
1.34xl04
1.99xl04
1.98xl03
1.29xl05
4.34xl04
2.26xl03
8.99xl05
HDDV: Heavy Duty Diesel Vehicles
HDGV: Heavy Duty Gasoline Vehicles
LDDT: Light Duty Diesel Tracks
LDDV: Light Duty Diesel Vehicles
LDGT1: Light Duty Gasoline Tracks 1
LDGT2: Light Duty Gasoline Tracks 2
LDGV: Light Duty Gasoline Vehicles
MC: Motorcycles
32
-------
Table 17. Fuels control inventory emissions by vehicle type and total onroad for selected HAPs
and all HAPs. Total onroad includes diesel emissions.
Year
2015
2020
2030
HAP
1,3 -Butadiene
Acetaldehyde
Acrolein
Benzene
Formaldehyde
Naphthalene
All HAPs
1,3 -Butadiene
Acetaldehyde
Acrolein
Benzene
Formaldehyde
Naphthalene
All HAPs
1,3 -Butadiene
Acetaldehyde
Acrolein
Benzene
Formaldehyde
Naphthalene
All HAPs
Vehicle Type
HDGV
9.90X101
2.48xl02
2.41X101
l.SOxlO3
6.88xl02
2.48xl02
1.46xl04
7.84X101
2.04xl02
l.VlxlO1
1.23xl03
5.56xl02
1.95xl02
1.15xl04
6.34X101
1.73xl02
1.19X101
1.07xl03
4.60xl02
1.76xl02
l.OOxlO4
LDGT1
3.94xl03
5.08xl03
4.72xl02
3.73xl04
l.OlxlO4
6.97xl02
2.83xl05
4.53xl03
5.85xl03
5.38xl02
4.24xl04
1.15xl04
7.69xl02
3.15xl05
5.42xl03
7.06xl03
6.44xl02
5.05xl04
1.38xl04
9.00xl02
3.70xl05
LDGT2
1.92xl03
2.34xl03
2.26xl02
1.78xl04
4.67xl03
2.73xl02
1.39xl05
2.07xl03
2.51xl03
2.40xl02
1.88xl04
4.98xl03
2.81xl02
1.42xl05
2.35xl03
2.89xl03
2.71xl02
2.12xl04
5.67xl03
3.15xl02
1.57xl05
LDGV
3.75xl03
4.52xl03
4.42xl02
3.57xl04
9.55xl03
7.43xl02
2.86xl05
3.61xl03
4.38xl03
4.25xl02
3.41xl04
9.24xl03
6.93xl02
2.67xl05
4.32xl03
5.26xl03
5.08xl02
4.06xl04
l.llxlO4
8.17xl02
3.15xl05
MC
2.43xl02
1.96xl02
l.SlxlO1
6.26xl02
6.17xl02
2.67X101
8.49xl03
2.63xl02
2.13xl02
1.63X101
6.77xl02
6.67xl02
2.89X101
9.18xl03
3.18xl02
2.58xl02
1.97X101
8.16xl02
8.06xl02
3.49X101
l.llxlO4
Total
onroad
l.OSxlO4
1.62xl04
1.65xl03
9.44xl04
3.59xl04
2.02xl03
7.52xl05
1.14xl04
1.69xl04
1.70xl03
9.87xl04
3.72xl04
1.99xl03
7.65xl05
1.34xl04
1.99xl04
1.98xl03
1.16xl05
4.35xl04
2.26xl03
8.85xl05
33
-------
Table 18. Vehicle control inventory emissions by vehicle type and total onroad for selected
HAPs and all HAPs. Total onroad includes diesel.
Year
2010
2015
2020
2030
HAP
1,3 -Butadiene
Acetaldehyde
Acrolein
Benzene
Formaldehyde
Naphthalene
All HAPs
1,3 -Butadiene
Acetaldehyde
Acrolein
Benzene
Formaldehyde
Naphthalene
All HAPs
1,3 -Butadiene
Acetaldehyde
Acrolein
Benzene
Formaldehyde
Naphthalene
All HAPs
1,3 -Butadiene
Acetaldehyde
Acrolein
Benzene
Formaldehyde
Naphthalene
All HAPs
Vehicle Type
HDGV
1.97xl02
3.90xl02
7.59X101
2.38xl03
1.21xl03
4.00xl02
2.13xl04
9.90X101
2.48xl02
2.41X101
1.72xl03
6.88xl02
2.48xl02
1.48xl04
7.84X101
2.04xl02
1.71X101
1.40xl03
5.56xl02
1.95xl02
1.16xl04
6.34X101
1.73xl02
1.19X101
1.21xl03
4.60xl02
1.76xl02
1.02xl04
LDGT1
3.53xl03
4.41xl03
4.23xl02
3.64xl04
8.90xl03
6.40xl02
2.61xl05
3.25xl03
4.09xl03
3.90xl02
3.46xl04
8.14xl03
6.97xl02
2.42xl05
3.28xl03
4.07xl03
3.90xl02
3.44xl04
S.llxlO3
7.69xl02
2.37xl05
3.32xl03
4.13xl03
3.97xl02
3.48xl04
8.27xl03
9.00xl02
2.38xl05
LDGT2
1.98xl03
2.34xl03
2.30xl02
1.95xl04
4.81xl03
2.67xl02
1.43xl05
1.75xl03
2.10xl03
2.07xl02
1.84xl04
4.21xl03
2.73xl02
l.SOxlO5
1.76xl03
2.09xl03
2.05xl02
l.SOxlO4
4.15xl03
2.81xl02
1.24xl05
1.72xl03
2.06xl03
2.00xl02
1.75xl04
4.08xl03
3.15xl02
1.20xl05
LDGV
3.89xl03
4.54xl03
4.58xl02
4.21xl04
9.55xl03
8.60xl02
3.23xl05
2.97xl03
3.50xl03
3.51xl02
3.19xl04
7.40xl03
7.43xl02
2.39xl05
2.43xl03
2.85xl03
2.87xl02
2.60xl04
6.06xl03
6.93xl02
1.92xl05
2.34xl03
2.75xl03
2.77xl02
2.53xl04
5.87xl03
8.17xl02
1.88xl05
MC
2.24xl02
l.SOxlO2
l.SSxlO1
6.69xl02
5.67xl02
2.46X101
7.90xl03
2.43xl02
1.96xl02
l.SlxlO1
7.28xl02
6.17xl02
2.67X101
8.59xl03
2.63xl02
2.13xl02
1.63X101
7.87xl02
6.67xl02
2.89X101
9.29xl03
3.18xl02
2.58xl02
1.97X101
9.47xl02
8.06xl02
3.49X101
1.12xl04
Total
onroad
l.OSxlO4
1.62xl04
1.74xl03
l.OSxlO5
3.70xl04
2.26xl03
7.79xl05
9.14xl03
1.39xl04
1.46xl03
8.88xl04
3.14xl04
2.02xl03
6.54xl05
8.64xl03
1.32xl04
1.38xl03
8.20xl04
2.98xl04
1.99xl03
5.94xl05
8.69xl03
1.37xl04
1.43xl03
8.14xl04
S.llxlO4
2.26xl03
5.90xl05
34
-------
Table 19. Cumulative fuels and vehicle control inventory emissions by vehicle type and total
onroad for selected HAPs and all HAPs. Total onroad includes diesel.
Year
2015
2020
2030
HAP
1,3 -Butadiene
Acetaldehyde
Acrolein
Benzene
Formaldehyde
Naphthalene
All HAPs
1,3 -Butadiene
Acetaldehyde
Acrolein
Benzene
Formaldehyde
Naphthalene
All HAPs
1,3 -Butadiene
Acetaldehyde
Acrolein
Benzene
Formaldehyde
Naphthalene
All HAPs
Vehicle Type
HDGV
9.90X101
2.48xl02
2.41X101
1.50xl03
6.88xl02
2.48xl02
1.46xl04
7.84X101
2.04xl02
l.VlxlO1
1.23xl03
5.56xl02
1.95xl02
1.15xl04
6.34X101
1.73xl02
1.19X101
1.07xl03
4.60xl02
1.76xl02
l.OOxlO4
LDGT1
3.25xl03
4.10xl03
3.90xl02
3.08xl04
8.16xl03
6.97xl02
2.38xl05
3.29xl03
4.08xl03
3.90xl02
3.06xl04
8.14xl03
7.69xl02
2.33xl05
3.32xl03
4.14xl03
3.97xl02
S.llxlO4
8.30xl03
9.00xl02
2.34xl05
LDGT2
1.75xl03
2.11xl03
2.07xl02
1.63xl04
4.23xl03
2.73xl02
1.28xl05
1.77xl03
2.09xl03
2.05xl02
1.60xl04
4.17xl03
2.81xl02
1.23xl05
1.73xl03
2.06xl03
2.00xl02
1.56xl04
4.09xl03
3.15xl02
LlSxlO5
LDGV
2.97xl03
3.51xl03
3.51xl02
2.84xl04
7.43xl03
7.43xl02
2.35xl05
2.44xl03
2.86xl03
2.87xl02
2.32xl04
6.08xl03
6.93xl02
1.89xl05
2.34xl03
2.76xl03
2.77xl02
2.25xl04
5.89xl03
8.17xl02
1.85xl05
MC
2.43xl02
1.96xl02
l.SlxlO1
6.26xl02
6.17xl02
2.67X101
8.49xl03
2.63xl02
2.13xl02
1.63X101
6.77xl02
6.67xl02
2.89X101
9.18xl03
3.18xl02
2.58xl02
1.97X101
8.16xl02
8.06xl02
3.49X101
l.llxlO4
Total
onroad
9.16xl03
1.40xl04
1.46xl03
7.90xl04
3.15xl04
2.02xl03
6.45xl05
8.66xl03
1.32xl04
1.38xl03
7.31xl04
2.99xl04
1.99xl03
5.86xl05
8.71xl03
1.37xl04
1.43xl03
7.27xl04
3.12xl04
2.26xl03
5.81xl05
35
-------
3.3.3 Nonroad projections using NMIM (excluding aircraft, locomotives, and commercial
marine vessels)
EMS-HAP inventories were created from the NMIM output for nonroad sources, excluding
aircraft, locomotives and commercial marine vessels. In addition to reading the NMIM output
and converting to an EMS-HAP ready inventory in similar fashion as done for the onroad
inventories, refueling emissions were adjusted to account for portable fuel container (PFC)
emissions and to create controlled inventories for 2015, 2020, and 2030. The general
methodology was:
• A file containing nonroad gasoline fueled equipment SCC codes and the fraction of
refueling emissions by PFCs was read into SAS®. The SCC codes and fractions are
shown in Table 20.
• For each year, 1999, 2010, 2015, 2020, or 2030, the NMIM output was read into SAS®,
separating the HAP emissions from VOC, PM, and other non-HAP pollutants.
• For 2010, 2015, 2020, and 2030, reallocated the emissions of Broomfield County CO
(FIPS = 08014) to surrounding counties and recalculated the county emissions by FIPS,
SCC, and CAS. This step is done because Broomfield County was created after the 2000
census and therefore is not in any of the EMS-HAP ancillary files, such as spatial
allocation factor files. The allocation factors used to reallocate the emissions are shown
in Table 21. Broomfield County emissions were multiplied by the factors in Table 21 to
allocate to the other counties.
• Merged the PFC fractions with the nonroad emissions and recalculated the refueling
emissions of the SCC codes in Table 20 to subtract out the PFC equipment refueling
emissions by using the equation:
E refuel = E refuel X I1 ~ Fraction) (8)
where Fraction is the fractional form of the PFC refueling percentage in Table 20. Table
22 shows the refueling emissions before and after the calculations. This step was done
because refueling PFC emissions were processed separately from other nonroad
emissions and were subtracted from the nonroad inventory to avoid double counting.
• After recalculating the refueling emissions, the inventory was considered the base or
reference inventory.
• For 2015, 2020, or 2030, the base onroad NMIM emissions and fuel control onroad
NMIM emissions were read into SAS®, retaining emissions for 1,3 -butadiene,
acetaldehyde, benzene, and formaldehyde for light duty gasoline vehicles.
36
-------
• Merged the base and fuel control LDGV emissions by FIPS, SCC, emissions type
(evaporative or exhaust) and pollutant. Summed the emissions by FIPS, pollutant, and
emissions type across the LDGV SCC codes.
• Calculated a ratio of fuel control to base emissions for each FIPS, CAS, and emissions
type.
• Merged with the reference nonroad inventory and if a gasoline engine (2-stroke or 4-
stroke) SCC code and the pollutant was 1,3-butadiene, acetaldehyde, benzene, or
formaldehyde and the emissions type was exhaust or evaporative, multiplied the nonroad
emissions by the appropriate ratio (exhaust or evaporative). There was exhaust for all
HAPs and evaporative for benzene only. Thus, the change in exhaust and evaporative
emissions for nonroad equipment due to fuel benzene control was assumed to be
proportional to the change for LDGV. This was the controlled inventory.
• Appended MS AT HAP emissions from the projected locomotive and commercial marine
vessel inventory to the reference and controlled inventories for the appropriate year.
• Summed up emissions by FIPS/SCC/CAS for the reference and control inventories. The
inventory was ready for input into EMS-HAP.
Note that aircraft emissions were not appended to the inventories. They were processed
separately in EMS-HAP and had their own set of ASPEN emissions files. The methodology for
nonroad emissions for 1999 and 2010 processing is shown in Figure 7 and for the other years,
including control calculations are shown in Figure 8.
37
-------
Table 20. Nonroad gasoline equipment SCC codes refueled by portable fuel containers (PFC)
and percentage of refueling from PFCs.
SCC
2260003030
2260003040
2260004016
2260004021
2260004026
2260004031
2260004071
2260006005
2260006010
2260006015
2260007005
2265001060
2265003010
2265003030
2265003040
2265003050
2265004011
2265004016
2265004026
2265004031
2265004036
2265004041
2265004046
2265004051
2265004056
2265004066
2265004071
2265004076
2265006005
2265006010
2265006015
2265006025
2265006030
Description
2-Stroke, Industrial Equipment, Sweepers/Scrubbers
2-Stroke, Industrial Equipment, Other General Industrial Equipment
2-Stroke, Lawn and Garden Equipment, Rotary Tillers < 6 HP (Commercial)
2-Stroke, Lawn and Garden Equipment, Chain Saws < 6 HP (Commercial)
2-Stroke, Lawn and Garden Equipment, Trimmers/Edgers/Brush Cutters
(Commercial)
2-Stroke, Lawn and Garden Equipment, Leafblowers/Vacuums (Commercial)
2-Stroke, Lawn and Garden Equipment, Turf Equipment (Commercial)
2-Stroke, Commercial Equipment, Generator Sets
2-Stroke, Commercial Equipment, Pumps
2-Stroke, Commercial Equipment, Air Compressors
2-Stroke, Logging Equipment, Chain Saws > 6 HP
4-Stroke, Recreational Equipment, Specialty Vehicles/Carts
4-Stroke,Industrial Equipment,Aerial Lifts
4-Stroke,IndustrialEquipment,Sweepers/Scrubbers
4-Stroke,Industrial Equipment,Other General Industrial Equipment
4-Stroke,Industrial Equipment,Other Material Handling Equipment
4-Stroke,Lawn and Garden Equipment,Lawn Mowers (Commercial)
4-Stroke,Lawn and Garden Equipment,Rotary Tillers < 6 HP (Commercial)
4-Stroke,Lawn and Garden Equipment, Trimmers/Edgers/Brush Cutters
(Commercial)
4-Stroke,Lawn and Garden Equipment,Leafblowers/Vacuums (Commercial)
4-Stroke, Lawn and Garden Equipment, Snowblowers (Commercial)
4-Stroke,Lawn and Garden Equipment,Rear Engine Riding Mowers (Commercial)
4-Stroke,Lawn and Garden Equipment,Front Mowers (Commercial)
4-Stroke,Lawn and Garden Equipment, Shredders < 6 HP (Commercial)
4-Stroke,Lawn and Garden Equipment,Lawn and Garden Tractors (Commercial)
4-Stroke,Lawn and Garden Equipment, Chippers/Stump Grinders (Commercial)
4-Stroke,Lawn and Garden Equipment,Turf Equipment (Commercial)
4-Stroke,Lawn and Garden Equipment,Other Lawn and Garden Equipment
(Commercial)
4-Stroke,Commercial Equipment, Generator Sets
4-Stroke,CommercialEquipment,Pumps
4-Stroke,Commercial Equipment,Air Compressors
4-Stroke,Commercial Equipment, Welders
4-Stroke,Commercial Equipment,Pressure Washers
PFC
refueling
percentage
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
98.459
100
100
0.021
1.587
18.803
63.058
0.156
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
52.297
76.737
57.208
10.29
77.253
Table 21. Factors used to allocate Adams County emissions to surrounding counties.
County
Adams County
Boulder County
Jefferson County
Weld County
FIPS code
08001
08013
08059
08123
Factor
0.352807188
0.62193445
0.024794365
0.000463998
38
-------
NMIM base nonroad emissions ^j Split j—^ HAPs
Locomotive and
commercial marine vessels
Subset to
MSAT HAPs
I
MSAT locomotive and
commercial marine vessels
Merge by SCC
and recalculate
refueling
emissions,
creating new
base emissions
1
Concatenate, sort,
and sum by
FIPS/SCC/CAS
Fraction of refueling by PFC by SCC
nonroad base emissions
Figure 7. 1999 and 2010 nonroad processing steps.
39
-------
NMIM base nonroad emissions
Reallocate emissions
ofFIPS08014to
surrounding counties
Fraction of refueling by PFC by SCC
PM
VOC
NMIM base onroad
emissions
NMIM fuel control onroad
emissions
Subset to 1,3-butadiene, benzene,
formaldehyde, and acetaldehyde
LDGV evaporative emissions and
sort by FIPS/SCC/CAS
| Subset to 1,3-butadiene, benzene,
! formaldehyde, and acetaldehyde
! LDGV evaporative emissions and
i sort by FIPS/SCC/CAS
Merge by FIPS/SCC/CAS
and calculate ratio of
control to base emissions
Merge by SCC and
recalculate
refueling emissions,
creating new base
emissions
•" r
Locomotive and
commercial marine vessels
I
sett
ATI
Subset to
MSAT HAPs
MSAT locomotive and
commercial marine vessels
LDGV ratios
Merge by FIPS/SCC/CAS and for
evaporative emissions and calculate
controlled emissions for 1,3-butadiene,
acetaldehyde, benzene, and
formaldehyde
Concatenate, sort, and
sum by
FIPS/SCC/CAS
nonroad base emissions
tie, and
1
control emissions
i
L
I Concatenate, sort, and
•I sum by
i FIPS/SCC/CAS
nonroad control emissions
Figure 8. 2015, 2020, and 2030 nonroad processing steps.
Emissions summaries are shown in Tables 23 through 28. Table 23 lists the base emissions by
engine type, Table 24 lists base emissions by equipment type, Table 25 lists the controlled
emissions by gasoline engine type, Table 26 lists controlled emissions by equipment type (only
those with gasoline engine emissions), Table 27 lists the base emissions by engine and
equipment type combinations, and Table 28 lists the controlled gasoline engine and equipment
combination emissions. Tables 25, 26, and 28 are for 2015, 2020, and 2030 only. Full
summaries can be found in nonroad_1009.xls and nonroad_pivot_1009.xls in the MSAT rule
docket EPA-HQ-OAR-2005-0036.
40
-------
Table 22. Nonroad refueling emissions before and after subtracting the refueling emissions due to portable fuel containers (PFC).
Year
1999
2010
2015
2020
2030
Emissions
NMIM refueling
PFC refueling
New refueling
NMIM refueling
PFC refueling
New refueling
NMIM refueling
PFC refueling
New refueling
NMIM refueling
PFC refueling
New refueling
NMIM refueling
PFC refueling
New refueling
Pollutant
2,2,4-Trimethylpentane
1.57xl03
8.46xl02
7.26xl02
1.59xl03
8.31xl02
7.58xl02
1.70xl03
9.01xl02
S.OlxlO2
1.83xl03
9.77xl02
8.52xl02
2.09xl03
1.13xl03
9.56xl02
Benzene
1.88xl03
l.OOxlO3
S.SOxlO2
1.83xl03
9.31xl02
8.95xl02
1.95xl03
l.OlxlO3
9.45xl02
2.10xl03
1.09xl03
l.OOxlO3
2.39xl03
1.27xl03
1.13xl03
Ethyl
Benzene
6.83xl02
3.66xl02
3.18xl02
6.54xl02
3.35xl02
3.19xl02
7.00xl02
3.63xl02
3.37xl02
7.52xl02
3.94xl02
3.58xl02
8.58xl02
4.56xl02
4.02xl02
Hexane
1.70xl03
8.85xl02
8.15xl02
1.70xl03
8.48xl02
8.53xl02
1.82xl03
9.18xl02
9.01xl02
1.95xl03
9.97xl02
9.56xl02
2.23xl03
1.15xl03
1.07xl03
MTBE
4.58xl03
2.81xl03
1.77xl03
2.24xl03
1.36xl03
8.84xl02
2.41xl03
1.47xl03
9.36xl02
2.60xl03
1.60xl03
l.OOxlO3
S.OOxlO3
1.85xl03
1.14xl03
Toluene
3.41xl03
l.SlxlO3
1.60xl03
3.27xl03
1.66xl03
1.61xl03
3.50xl03
1.79xl03
1.70xl03
3.76xl03
1.95xl03
l.SlxlO3
4.28xl03
2.25xl03
2.03xl03
Xylenes
1.98xl03
1.06xl03
9.19xl02
1.87xl03
9.54xl02
9.12xl02
2.00xl03
1.03xl03
9.64xl02
2.15xl03
1.12xl03
1.02xl03
2.45xl03
l.SOxlO3
1.15xl03
AllHAPs
1.58xl04
8.78xl03
7.03xl03
l.SlxlO4
6.91xl03
6.23xl03
1.41xl04
7.49xl03
6.59xl03
l.SlxlO4
8.13xl03
7.01xl03
1.73xl04
9.42xl03
7.87xl03
41
-------
Table 23. Base nonroad emissions by engine type.
Year
1999
2010
2015
2020
2030
Engine
2-Stroke
4-Stroke
Aircraft
Diesel
Miscellaneous
Residual
2-Stroke
4-Stroke
Aircraft
Diesel
Miscellaneous
Residual
2-Stroke
4-Stroke
Aircraft
Diesel
Miscellaneous
Residual
2-Stroke
4-Stroke
Aircraft
Diesel
Miscellaneous
Residual
2-Stroke
4-Stroke
Aircraft
Diesel
Miscellaneous
Residual
Pollutant
1,3-Butadiene
3.25xl03
5.73xl03
8.24xl02
5.22xl02
1.35X10'1
0.00x10°
2.30xl03
3.62xl03
8.59xl02
3.52xl02
l.SSxlO'1
0.00x10°
1.94xl03
3.43xl03
9.24xl02
2.91xl02
1.66X10'1
0.00x10°
1.69xl03
3.58xl03
9.93xl02
2.50xl02
1.82X10'1
O.OOxlO1
1.61xl03
4.04xl03
1.13xl03
2.22xl02
2.31X10'1
0.00x10°
Acetaldehyde
2.21xl03
S.OOxlO3
2.02xl03
1.43xl04
5.21x10°
4.22xl02
1.53xl03
2.23xl03
2.10xl03
9.74xl03
6.00x10°
6.00xl02
1.31xl03
2.11xl03
2.26xl03
8.06xl03
6.41x10°
7.17xl02
1.16xl03
2.19xl03
2.43xl03
7.00xl03
7.04x10°
8.76xl02
1.12xl03
2.45xl03
2.77xl03
6.47xl03
8.94x10°
1.33xl03
Acrolein
4.80xl02
4.19xl02
9.68xl02
8.39xl02
2.44X101
2.29X101
3.71xl02
2.62xl02
l.OlxlO3
5.71xl02
2.23X101
3.25X101
3.13xl02
2.48xl02
l.OSxlO3
4.74xl02
2.19X101
3.89X101
2.63xl02
2.60xl02
1.16xl03
4.12xl02
2.13X101
4.75X101
2.51xl02
2.93xl02
1.33xl03
3.76xl02
2.02X101
7.21X101
Benzene
3.41xl04
3.45xl04
LlOxlO3
S.lOxlO3
1.42x10°
1.13xl02
2.50xl04
2.51xl04
1.16xl03
3.35xl03
1.63x10°
1.61xl02
2.13xl04
2.45xl04
1.25xl03
2.71xl03
1.75x10°
1.92xl02
1.89xl04
2.57xl04
1.33xl03
2.30xl03
1.92x10°
2.35xl02
1.88xl04
2.89xl04
1.51xl03
2.09xl03
2.43x10°
3.56xl02
Formaldehyde
5.30xl03
7.99xl03
6.55xl03
3.14xl04
1.04X101
8.07xl02
3.94xl03
5.06xl03
6.81xl03
2.12xl04
1.20X101
1.15xl03
3.40xl03
4.79xl03
7.33xl03
1.75xl04
1.28X101
1.37xl03
2.94xl03
5.02xl03
7.89xl03
1.51xl04
1.41X101
1.68xl03
2.84xl03
5.68xl03
8.99xl03
1.39xl04
1.79X101
2.55xl03
Naphthalene
2.04X10'1
5.43xl02
4.56xl02
1.90xl02
6.38xlO'2
2.18X101
2.18X10'1
5.21xl02
4.96xl02
1.35xl02
6.70xlO'2
2.97X101
2.03X10'1
5.48xl02
5.30xl02
1.15xl02
6.74xlO'2
S.SOxlO1
1.90X10'1
5.85xl02
5.66xl02
9.80X101
6.89xlO'2
4.20X101
1.99X10'1
6.56xl02
6.38xl02
8.33X101
7.51xlO'2
6.20X101
AllHAPs
5.85xl05
2.22xl05
1.43xl04
6.36xl04
1.72xl02
1.59xl03
4.27xl05
l.SlxlO5
1.50xl04
4.27xl04
1.62xl02
2.25xl03
3.59xl05
1.49xl05
1.61xl04
3.51xl04
1.61xl02
2.69xl03
3.06xl05
1.56xl05
1.73xl04
3.02xl04
1.60xl02
3.27xl03
2.97xl05
1.76xl05
1.96xl04
2.76xl04
1.60xl02
4.96xl03
42
-------
Table 24. Base nonroad emissions by equipment type.
Year
1 QQQ
onin
Equipment
Agriculture
Aircraft
Airport Support
Commercial
Commercial Marine
Vessel
Construction
Industrial
Lawn/Garden
Logging
Pleasure Craft
Railroad
Recreational
Underground Mining
Agriculture
Aircraft
Airport Support
Commercial
Commercial Marine
Vessel
Construction
Industrial
Lawn/Garden
Logging
Pleasure Craft
Railroad
Recreational
Underground Mining
1,3-Butadiene
2.36xl02
8.24xl02
4.27x10°
1.32xl03
5.69x10°
4.55xl02
2.42xl02
4.03xl03
3.48X101
2.07xl03
1.14xl02
9.90xl02
1.37x10°
1.45xl02
8.59xl02
2.24x10°
7.74xl02
5.99x10°
2.31xl02
7.61X101
2.24xl03
2.11X101
1.29xl03
1.04xl02
1.39xl03
1.07x10°
Acetaldehyde
3.99xl03
2.02xl03
5.49X101
1.39xl03
2.36xl03
5.43xl03
1.09xl03
2.38xl03
1.33xl02
1.62xl03
8.50xl02
5.99xl02
3.90X101
2.26xl03
2.10xl03
3.70X101
9.99xl02
2.64xl03
3.31xl03
5.39xl02
1.52xl03
5.89X101
LlOxlO3
7.72xl02
8.43xl02
3.04X101
Acrolein
2.32xl02
9.68xl02
3.25x10°
1.43xl02
9.82X101
3.26xl02
7.18X101
3.98xl02
LlOxlO1
2.18xl02
1.30xl02
1.51xl02
2.23x10°
1.32xl02
l.OlxlO3
2.15x10°
8.85X101
1.12xl02
1.95xl02
3.33X101
2.06xl02
5.40x10°
1.34xl02
1.19xl02
2.31xl02
1.74x10°
Pollutant
Benzene
2.10xl03
LlOxlO3
3.32X101
7.93xl03
6.44xl02
3.95xl03
1.50xl03
2.58xl04
2.02xl02
2.50xl04
1.62xl02
6.55xl03
1.49X101
1.28xl03
1.16xl03
1.93X101
5.14xl03
7.19xl02
2.11xl03
5.24xl02
.60xl04
.31xl02
.67xl04
.43xl02
.OSxlO4
.17x10'
Formaldehyde
8.89xl03
6.55xl03
1.23xl02
3.52xl03
4.72xl03
1.21xl04
2.49xl03
7.05xl03
3.34xl02
2.34xl03
1.89xl03
1.99xl03
8.68X101
5.05xl03
6.81xl03
8.25X101
2.33xl03
5.25xl03
7.35xl03
1.21xl03
3.90xl03
1.53xl02
1.55xl03
1.72xl03
2.73xl03
6.77X101
Naphthalene
4.17X101
4.56xl02
6.56X10'1
1.04xl02
6.52X101
5.58X101
2.63X101
3.05xl02
1.95x10°
3.40X101
6.07X101
5.93X101
2.36X10'1
2.60X101
4.96xl02
5.03X10'1
1.03xl02
6.83X101
3.68X101
1.33X101
2.45xl02
1.64x10°
3.61X101
4.39X101
1.12xl02
1.59X10'1
AllHAPs
2.14xl04
1.43xl04
3.25xl02
5.93xl04
8.74xl03
4.25xl04
1.14xl04
2.62xl05
3.58xl03
3.33xl05
4.41xl03
1.26xl05
1.77xl02
1.25xl04
1.50xl04
1.98xl02
3.40xl04
9.74xl03
2.23xl04
4.25xl03
1.30xl05
2.09xl03
2.03xl05
3.97xl03
2.01xl05
1.38xl02
43
-------
Table 24. Continued
Year
2015
2020
Equipment
Agriculture
Aircraft
Airport Support
Commercial
Commercial Marine
Vessel
Construction
Industrial
Lawn/Garden
Logging
Pleasure Craft
Railroad
Recreational
Underground Mining
Agriculture
Aircraft
Airport Support
Commercial
Commercial Marine
Vessel
Construction
Industrial
Lawn/Garden
Logging
Pleasure Craft
Railroad
Recreational
Underground Mining
Pollutant
1,3-Butadiene
1.16xl02
9.24xl02
1.71x10°
8.20xl02
6.03x10°
1.98xl02
4.73X101
2.08xl03
2.15X101
l.OSxlO3
1.02xl02
1.23xl03
8.85X1Q-1
9.83X101
9.93xl02
1.58x10°
9.01xl02
6.18x10°
l.SOxlO2
3.67X101
2.23xl03
2.34X101
9.28xl02
9.88X101
1.03xl03
7.81X10'1
Acetaldehyde
1.68xl03
2.26xl03
2.95X101
9.02xl02
2.77xl03
2.55xl03
3.72xl02
1.41xl03
4.13X101
9.20xl02
7.55xl02
7.43xl02
2.52X101
1.31xl03
2.43xl03
2.61X101
8.50xl02
2.97xl03
2.05xl03
3.10xl02
1.48xl03
3.66X101
8.44xl02
7.28xl02
6.13xl02
2.23X101
Acrolein
9.87X101
l.OSxlO3
1.71x10°
S.SlxlO1
LlSxlO2
1.51xl02
2.28X101
1.95xl02
4.61x10°
1.06xl02
1.17xl02
1.94xl02
1.44x10°
7.69X101
1.16xl03
1.52x10°
8.57X101
1.29xl02
1.23xl02
1.89X101
2.07xl02
4.60x10°
9.45X101
1.13xl02
1.48xl02
1.27x10°
Benzene
1.02xl03
1.25xl03
l.SlxlO1
5.48xl03
7.53xl02
1.79xl03
3.35xl02
1.55xl04
l.SOxlO2
1.41xl04
1.39xl02
9.43xl03
9.68x10°
8.55xl02
1.33xl03
1.37X101
6.01xl03
8.09xl02
1.59xl03
2.63xl02
1.66xl04
1.40xl02
1.31xl04
1.34xl02
7.50xl03
8.54x10°
Formaldehyde
3.76xl03
7.33xl03
6.59X101
2.12xl03
5.50xl03
5.66xl03
8.37xl02
3.63xl03
1.17xl02
1.27xl03
1.68xl03
2.36xl03
5.62X101
2.92xl03
7.89xl03
5.82X101
2.02xl03
5.90xl03
4.54xl03
6.97xl02
3.82xl03
1.09xl02
1.16xl03
1.62xl03
1.90xl03
4.96X101
Naphthalene
2.07X101
5.30xl02
4.28X10"1
1.13xl02
7.18X101
2.95X101
8.80x10°
2.46xl02
1.51x10°
3.73X101
4.20X101
1.27xl02
l.SOxlO-1
1.69X101
5.66xl02
3.46X10'1
1.25xl02
7.86X101
2.24X101
5.63x10°
2.64xl02
1.49x10°
3.88X101
3.97X101
1.32xl02
l.lSxlO'1
AllHAPs
9.69xl03
1.61xl04
1.57xl02
3.60xl04
1.02xl04
1.87xl04
2.79xl03
l.SOxlO5
2.23xl03
1.64xl05
3.89xl03
1.67xl05
1.14xl02
7.88xl03
1.73xl04
1.41xl02
3.92xl04
LlOxlO4
1.64xl04
2.24xl03
1.40xl05
2.45xl03
1.49xl05
3.75xl03
1.25xl05
l.OlxlO2
44
-------
Table 24. Continued
Year
2030
Equipment
Agriculture
Aircraft
Airport Support
Commercial
Commercial Marine
Vessel
Construction
Industrial
Lawn/Garden
Logging
Pleasure Craft
Railroad
Recreational
Underground Mining
Pollutant
1,3-Butadiene
S.SOxlO1
1.13xl03
1.72x10°
l.OSxlO3
6.77x10°
1.71xl02
S.lSxlO1
2.56xl03
2.83X101
9.09xl02
9.36X101
9.07xl02
7.91X10'1
Acetaldehyde
l.OSxlO3
2.77xl03
2.81X101
8.66xl02
3.62xl03
1.74xl03
3.20xl02
1.67xl03
3.66X101
8.34xl02
6.85xl02
5.33xl02
2.25X101
Acrolein
6.09X101
1.33xl03
1.64x10°
9.42X101
1.61xl02
l.OSxlO2
1.92X101
2.36xl02
5.16x10°
9.27X101
1.07xl02
1.28xl02
1.29x10°
Benzene
7.36xl02
1.51xl03
1.49X101
7.18xl03
9.82xl02
1.49xl03
2.33xl02
1.91xl04
1.68xl02
1.33xl04
1.26xl02
6.80xl03
8.64x10°
Formaldehyde
2.30xl03
8.99xl03
6.28X101
2.08xl03
7.15xl03
3.86xl03
7.18xl02
4.33xl03
1.16xl02
1.15xl03
1.53xl03
1.67xl03
5.02X101
Naphthalene
1.25X101
6.38xl02
2.72X10"1
1.49xl02
1.02xl02
1.68X101
3.58x10°
3.03xl02
1.80x10°
4.18X101
S.SOxlO1
1.36xl02
1.16X1Q-1
AllHAPs
6.57xl03
1.96xl04
1.52xl02
4.65xl04
1.34xl04
1.52xl04
2.09xl03
1.61xl05
2.96xl03
1.48xl05
3.53xl03
1.07xl05
1.02xl02
Table 25. Controlled gasoline engine emissions for 2015, 2020, and 2030.
Year
2015
2020
2030
Engine
2-Stroke
4-Stroke
2-Stroke
4-Stroke
2-Stroke
4-Stroke
Pollutant
1,3-Butadiene
1.95xl03
3.44xl03
1.69xl03
3.59xl03
1.62xl03
4.05xl03
Acetaldehyde
1.32xl03
2.12xl03
1.16xl03
2.20xl03
1.13xl03
2.45xl03
Benzene
1.83xl04
2.08xl04
1.60xl04
2.18xl04
1.59xl04
2.46xl04
Formaldehyde
3.41xl03
4.81xl03
2.95xl03
5.04xl03
2.85xl03
5.70xl03
Naphthalene
2.03X10"1
5.48xl02
1.90X10"1
5.85xl02
1.99X10"1
6.56xl02
AllHAPs
3.56xl05
1.45xl05
3.03xl05
1.53xl05
2.94xl05
1.72xl05
45
-------
Table 26. Controlled gasoline engine equipment emissions for 2015, 2020, and 2030.
Year
2015
2020
2030
Equipment
Agriculture
Airport Support
Commercial
Construction
Industrial
Lawn/Garden
Logging
Pleasure Craft
Railroad
Recreational
Agriculture
Airport Support
Commercial
Construction
Industrial
Lawn/Garden
Logging
Pleasure Craft
Railroad
Recreational
Agriculture
Airport Support
Commercial
Construction
Industrial
Lawn/Garden
Logging
Pleasure Craft
Railroad
Recreational
Pollutant
1,3-Butadiene
1.16xl02
1.72x10°
8.21xl02
1.98xl02
4.74X101
2.09xl03
2.15X101
1.04xl03
1.02xl02
1.23xl03
9.85X101
1.58x10°
9.03xl02
l.SOxlO2
3.67X101
2.23xl03
2.35X101
9.30xl02
9.88X101
1.03xl03
S.SlxlO1
1.72x10°
l.OSxlO3
1.71xl02
S.lSxlO1
2.56xl03
2.84X101
9.12xl02
9.36X101
9.10xl02
Acetaldehyde
1.69xl03
2.95X101
9.03xl02
2.55xl03
3.72xl02
1.41xl03
4.14X101
9.23xl02
7.55xl02
7.45xl02
1.31xl03
2.61X101
8.52xl02
2.05xl03
S.lOxlO2
1.48xl03
3.66X101
8.46xl02
7.28xl02
6.15xl02
l.OSxlO3
2.81X101
8.67xl02
1.74xl03
3.20xl02
1.67xl03
3.67X101
8.37xl02
6.85xl02
5.35xl02
Benzene
9.58xl02
1.48X101
4.82xl03
1.70xl03
3.14xl02
1.35xl04
1.14xl02
1.16xl04
1.38xl02
8.06xl03
7.95xl02
1.34X101
5.28xl03
l.SlxlO3
2.47xl02
1.44xl04
1.22xl02
1.07xl04
1.33xl02
6.36xl03
6.77xl02
1.45X101
6.30xl03
1.41xl03
2.21xl02
1.66xl04
1.46xl02
1.07xl04
1.25xl02
5.74xl03
Formaldehyde
3.76xl03
6.59X101
2.12xl03
5.66xl03
8.37xl02
3.64xl03
1.17xl02
1.28xl03
1.68xl03
2.38xl03
2.92xl03
5.82X101
2.02xl03
4.54xl03
6.97xl02
3.83xl03
LlOxlO2
1.16xl03
1.62xl03
1.91xl03
2.30xl03
6.28X101
2.08xl03
3.86xl03
7.19xl02
4.34xl03
1.16xl02
1.15xl03
1.53xl03
1.68xl03
Naphthalene
2.07X101
4.28X10'1
1.13xl02
2.95X101
8.80x10°
2.46xl02
1.51x10°
3.73X101
4.20X101
1.27xl02
1.69X101
3.46X10'1
1.25xl02
2.24X101
5.63x10°
2.64xl02
1.49x10°
3.88X101
3.97X101
1.32xl02
1.25X101
2.72X10'1
1.49xl02
1.68X101
3.58x10°
3.03xl02
1.80x10°
4.18X101
3.50X101
1.36xl02
AllHAPs
9.62xl03
1.56xl02
3.53xl04
1.86xl04
2.77xl03
1.28xl05
2.21xl03
1.61xl05
3.89xl03
1.66xl05
7.82xl03
1.40xl02
3.85xl04
1.64xl04
2.22xl03
1.38xl05
2.43xl03
1.46xl05
3.75xl03
1.24xl05
6.51xl03
1.52xl02
4.56xl04
1.51xl04
2.08xl03
1.58xl05
2.94xl03
1.45xl05
3.53xl03
1.06xl05
46
-------
Table 27. Base engine and equipment for all HAPs.
Engine
2-Stroke
4-Stroke
Aircraft
Diesel
Miscellaneous
Residual
Equipment
Agriculture
Commercial
Construction
Industrial
Lawn/Garden
Logging
Pleasure Craft
Recreational
Agriculture
Airport Support
Commercial
Construction
Industrial
Lawn/Garden
Logging
Pleasure Craft
Railroad
Recreational
Aircraft
Agriculture
Airport Support
Commercial
Commercial Marine
Vessel
Construction
Industrial
Lawn/Garden
Logging
Pleasure Craft
Railroad
Recreational
Underground Mining
Commercial Marine
Vessel
Railroad
Commercial Marine
Vessel
Total nonroad
Year
1999
3.86xl02
l.OOxlO4
1.20xl04
1.39xl02
1.33xl05
2.55xl03
3.16xl05
l.llxlO5
3.16xl03
8.14X101
4.59xl04
6.64xl03
6.81xl03
1.27xl05
5.05xl02
1.66xl04
5.94X101
1.50xl04
1.43xl04
1.79xl04
2.44xl02
3.37xl03
7.12xl03
2.39xl04
4.48xl03
1.21xl03
5.26xl02
3.59xl02
4.20xl03
1.29xl02
1.77xl02
2.03X101
l.SlxlO2
1.59xl03
8.86xl05
2010
9.18X101
2.72xl03
4.47xl03
1.46X101
4.87xl04
1.47xl03
1.88xl05
1.82xl05
2.31xl03
S.SOxlO1
2.87xl04
3.17xl03
1.93xl03
8.04xl04
4.03xl02
1.48xl04
3.26X101
1.95xl04
1.50xl04
l.OlxlO4
1.65xl02
2.52xl03
7.47xl03
1.46xl04
2.30xl03
8.55xl02
2.17xl02
4.04xl02
3.80xl03
9.94X101
1.38xl02
2.34X101
1.38xl02
2.25xl03
6.38xl05
2015
9.93X101
3.02xl03
4.53xl03
8.04x10°
5.22xl04
1.69xl03
1.49xl05
1.48xl05
2.09xl03
2.46X101
S.lOxlO4
2.95xl03
LlSxlO3
7.72xl04
4.08xl02
1.45xl04
3.35X101
1.94xl04
1.61xl04
7.50xl03
1.32xl02
1.95xl03
7.50xl03
1.12xl04
1.61xl03
7.11xl02
1.34xl02
4.00xl02
3.72xl03
7.90X101
1.14xl02
2.50X101
1.36xl02
2.69xl03
5.61xl05
2020
1.07xl02
3.35xl03
4.59xl03
4.02x10°
5.65xl04
1.90xl03
1.34xl05
1.06xl05
1.98xl03
2.42X101
3.44xl04
2.93xl03
8.91xl02
8.27xl04
4.48xl02
1.45xl04
3.49X101
1.85xl04
1.73xl04
5.79xl03
1.16xl02
1.49xl03
7.67xl03
8.92xl03
1.34xl03
6.20xl02
1.07xl02
3.96xl02
3.59xl03
5.90X101
l.OlxlO2
2.74X101
1.32xl02
3.27xl03
5.14xl05
2030
1.22xl02
4.03xl03
4.71xl03
0.00x10°
6.50xl04
2.32xl03
1.32xl05
8.84xl04
1.92xl03
2.67X101
4.14xl04
2.98xl03
6.90xl02
9.51xl04
5.45xl02
1.50xl04
S.SlxlO1
1.84xl04
1.96xl04
4.53xl03
1.25xl02
l.OSxlO3
8.36xl03
7.51xl03
1.40xl03
5.88xl02
9.40X101
4.10xl02
3.37xl03
3.24X101
1.02xl02
3.48X101
1.25xl02
4.96xl03
5.25xl05
47
-------
Table 28. Controlled gasoline engine emissions by engine and equipment type for all HAPs.
Engine
2-Stroke
4-Stroke
Equipment
Agriculture
Commercial
Construction
Industrial
Lawn/Garden
Logging
Pleasure Craft
Recreational
Agriculture
Airport Support
Commercial
Construction
Industrial
Lawn/Garden
Logging
Pleasure Craft
Railroad
Recreational
Year
2015
9.80X101
S.OOxlO3
4.50xl03
7.98x10°
5.19xl04
1.68xl03
1.47xl05
1.47xl05
2.03xl03
2.42X101
3.04xl04
2.89xl03
1.16xl03
7.55xl04
3.97xl02
1.40xl04
3.27X101
1.89xl04
2020
1.06xl02
3.33xl03
4.56xl03
3.99x10°
5.61xl04
1.89xl03
1.32xl05
l.OSxlO5
1.92xl03
2.39X101
3.37xl04
2.87xl03
8.76xl02
S.OSxlO4
4.35xl02
1.39xl04
3.40X101
l.SOxlO4
2030
1.20xl02
4.00xl03
4.68xl03
0.00x10°
6.46xl04
2.32xl03
l.SOxlO5
8.79xl04
1.86xl03
2.63X101
4.06xl04
2.93xl03
6.78xl02
9.29xl04
5.30xl02
1.44xl04
3.71X101
1.78xl04
3.3.4 Portable Fuel Containers (PFC) emission inventories
As part of the MS AT rule, emissions for portable fuel containers (PFC) would be processed in
EMS-HAP, ASPEN, and subsequent HAPEM exposure modeling. In order to create the
emissions inventories for the MSAT HAPs, two main steps were taken. First, state level VOC
PFC emissions were allocated to counties and to several SCC codes. Secondly, after allocation
of the VOC emissions, HAP specific emissions were developed. This section describes the
processes in both steps.
3.3.4.1 VOC allocation
VOC total PFC reference (uncontrolled) emissions were available for 1990, 2005, 2010, 2015,
2020, and 2030 by state. In addition to the reference inventories, there were control inventories
for 2010, 2015, 2020, and 2030. In addition to the years listed, a 1999 reference inventory was
needed. The 1999 inventory would be created based on linear interpolation between the 1990
and 2005 inventories.
For both the reference and control inventories, the state VOC emissions needed to be allocated to
counties and to SCC codes related to PFC emissions. The following steps were used to allocate
the VOC emissions:
®
For each year, the reference inventories were read into SAS. For 2010, 2015, 2020, and
®
2030, the control inventories were read into SAS.
48
-------
• The state level VOC emissions for each year and emissions scenario, reference or control,
were allocated to residential and commercial components for six categories: 1) vapor
displacement while refilling containers at the pump, 2) spillage while refilling at the
pump, 3) spillage during transport, 4) vapor displacement while refueling equipment, 5)
spillage while refueling equipment, and 6) permeation and evaporation. Total state level
PFC emissions were allocated to the categories by using national level residential and
commercial emissions (Table 29) for each of the categories using the following
equations:
F - F
^residential, XXXX, YY ~
^commercial, XXXX ,YY ~ ^ X
where E was the emissions of the category being split, XXXX was year, YY was state,
and Res and Com were the emissions shown in Table 29.
• After allocating the VOC emissions to the six categories, the commercial and residential
permeation and evaporation categories were split into commercial permeation,
commercial evaporation, residential permeation, and residential evaporation by
-^ AAA,XXXX ,YY ,perm ~ ^ AAA,XXXX ,YY ,perm&evap X U.JJ O /
^ AAA,XXXX ,YY ,evap ~ ^ AAA,XXXX ,YY ,perm&evap X \\ ~ ^'~> ^ ° ' )
The fraction 0.3387 represents the fraction of combined permeation and evaporative
emissions attributable to permeation, based on data from the California Air Resources
Board.
• Once the state VOC emissions were allocated to the residential and commercial
components of the categories, they were assigned SCC codes for later processing in
EMS-HAP. These codes are shown in Table 30.
• After creating the SCC level state emissions for the years and emission scenarios, a 1999
reference inventory was created by interpolating from the 1990 to 2005 emissions. The
interpolation was done for each state and SCC combination and the equation was:
( ( F - F \\
r, _ p Q 2005,77, SCC ^ 1990 ,YY , SCC
£- '1999, 77 , SCC ~ -^
where Ei999;YY,scc, Ei990,YYY,scc, and E20o5,YY,scc were the 1999, 1990, and 2005
emissions for state YY and SCC shown in Table 30.
49
-------
After creating the 1999 state VOC inventory, the state emissions were allocated to the
counties by using the ratio of county to state fuel consumption. State emissions were
multiplied by the county specific ratio to yield a county specific VOC emissions number
for each SCC. This equation is shown as Equation 14.
F - F
I-1 XXXX,YYYYY,AAA.SCC ~ ^' XXXX,YY'AAA.SCC
Consumption YYYYY
Consumption^
(14)
where EXXXX,YYYYY,AAA,SCC were the emissions for year XXXX, county with FIPS code
YYYYY, emission scenario AAA (reference or control) and SCC shown in Table 30,
EXXXX,YY,AAA,SCC were the state level emissions for year XXXX, state YY, emission
scenario AAA, and SCC in Table 30, ConsumptionYYYY was the county fuel consumption
and ConsumptionYY was the state fuel consumption.
As for the nonroad emissions, Broomfield County emissions were allocated to
surrounding counties.
Figure 9 shows the flow of steps for allocation of VOC emissions.
(7) SP
State VOC PFC emissions ^ em
it into commercial and residential
issions and split permeation+evaporation
issions into permeation emissions and
evaporation emissions and assign SCC
codes to emissions
©
^
Allocated county VOC PFC •*—
emissions
1
Create 1999 VOC emissions from
1990 and 2005.
I
r
i '
. State VOC PFC residentia
commercial emissions
;
and
Allocate PFC emissions to county by ^_
~ using the ratio of county to state fuel \^}
consumption
1
County and state fuel con
Allocated 1999 county VOC PFC Allocated county VOC PFC
emissions by SCC emissions for other years
sumption
Figure 9. Steps in allocation of state VOC PFC emissions to counties.
50
-------
Table 29. PFC categories with national level residential and commercial emissions.
Category
Vapor displacement while refilling at the pump
Spillage displacement while refilling at the pump
Spillage during transport
Vapor displacement while refueling equipment
Spillage while refueling equipment
Permeation and evaporation
Residential
Emissions
4,328
382
13,519
4,328
21,340
187,757
Commercial
Emissions
8,341
735
18,442
8,341
41,747
5,997
Table 30. SCC codes of PFC categories.
SCC code
2501011011
2501011012
2501011013
2501011014
2501011015
2501011016
2501011017
2501012011
2501012012
2501012013
2501012014
2501012015
2501012016
2501012017
Description
Storage and Transport;
Permeation
Storage and Transport;
Evaporation
Petroleum and Petroleum Product
Petroleum and Petroleum Product
Storage and Transport; Petroleum and Petroleum Product
Spillage During Transport
Storage and Transport;
Refilling at the Pump -
Storage and Transport;
Refilling at the Pump -
Storage and Transport;
Refueling Equipment -
Storage and Transport;
Refueling Equipment -
Storage and Transport;
Permeation
Storage and Transport;
Evaporation
Petroleum and Petroleum Product
Vapor Displacement
Petroleum and Petroleum Product
Spillage
Petroleum and Petroleum Product
Vapor Displacement
Petroleum and Petroleum Product
Spillage
Petroleum and Petroleum Product
Petroleum and Petroleum Product
Storage and Transport; Petroleum and Petroleum Product
Spillage During Transport
Storage and Transport;
Refilling at the Pump -
Storage and Transport;
Refilling at the Pump -
Storage and Transport;
Refueling Equipment -
Storage and Transport;
Refueling Equipment -
Petroleum and Petroleum Product
Vapor Displacement
Petroleum and Petroleum Product
Spillage
Petroleum and Petroleum Product
Vapor Displacement
Petroleum and Petroleum Product
Spillage
Storage;
Storage;
Storage;
Storage;
Storage;
Storage;
Storage;
Storage;
Storage;
Storage;
Storage;
Storage;
Storage;
Storage;
Residential Portable Gas Cans;
Residential Portable Gas Cans;
Residential Portable Gas Cans;
Residential Portable Gas Cans;
Residential Portable Gas Cans;
Residential Portable Gas Cans;
Residential Portable Gas Cans;
Commercial Portable Gas Cans;
Commercial Portable Gas Cans;
Commercial Portable Gas Cans;
Commercial Portable Gas Cans;
Commercial Portable Gas Cans;
Commercial Portable Gas Cans;
Commercial Portable Gas Cans;
51
-------
3.3.4.2 Creation of HAP PFC inventories
Once the state VOC PFC emissions were allocated to counties and SCC codes, PFC emissions
for MSAT HAPs could be developed. Two methods were used to create the emissions, one for
benzene, and the second for other HAPs. For benzene, the county level light duty gasoline
vehicle (LDGV) refueling emissions for benzene and VOC were used to create the PFC
emissions. At the county level, the benzene refueling emissions were divided by the VOC
refueling emissions, to yield a ratio that would be multiplied with the PFC VOC emissions.
Benzene fuel control refueling emissions would be used for refueling control emissions while no
fuel controls would be used for 1999 and all the future year reference inventories. Several
combinations of PFC and benzene fuel control refueling ratios would be used. These
combinations were composed of the PFC emissions with no controls, with controls, and with
benzene refueling emissions with and without controls. Table 31 lists the combinations and
years for which they were used.
Table 31. PFC and benzene fuel control inventory scenarios.
PFC emissions
No controls
Controls
No controls
Controls
Benzene refueling emissions
No controls
Controls
Controls
No controls
Years
1999, 2010, 2015, 2020, 2030
2015, 2020, 2030
2015,2020,2030
2010,2015,2020,2030
To calculate the benzene emissions for each PFC SCC in each county the following equations
were used. For all SCC emissions except for permeation (residential and commercial) the
benzene emissions were calculated as:
Benzene
refuel,XXXXJYYYY,I
W^ refuel,XXXX,YYYYY,L
xO.36
(15)
For permeation emissions, the equation was
Benzene
fuel.XXXXJYYYY,
vocrefuel
:0.36xl.77 (16)
2fuel,XXXX,YYYYY,E
where XXXX was the year, YYYYY was the FIPS code of the county, and SCC was an SCC
code shown in Table 30. AAA represents no controls or controls for PFC emissions, and BBB
represents whether refueling emissions are control or uncontrolled as in Table 31. Note that
1999 and 2010 uncontrolled benzene refueling emissions were calculated from 2015, as done in
the onroad emissions processing.
52
-------
In the equations the factor 0.36 represents an adjustment based on the nationwide percentage of
benzene in gasoline vapor from gasoline distribution with an RVP of 10 psi at 60°F (Hester,
2006). The percentage is 0.27%, in contrast to 0.74% benzene in vehicle refueling emissions
from highway vehicles. The ratio or factor of 0.36 was applied to the refueling emissions. A
second ratio was used for permeation emissions since recent research suggests that the ratio of
benzene from permeation is higher than for evaporation, vapor displacement or spillage. A
recent study (Haskew et al., 2004) suggests that the ratio of benzene from permeation to total
VOC from permeation is about 1.7727 times higher than the ratio associated with evaporation.
For all other HAPs, the PFC emissions were created by multiplying the PFC VOC emissions by
the county level ratio of HAP LDGV evaporative emissions by the VOC LDGV evaporative
emissions for the county or:
HAP
TTAn -im/~< I LDOV,XXXXJYYYY
HA r^ — I/I it V
•LJ-fl-L AAA.XXXXJYYYY,SCC ' ^^ AAA.XXXX JYYYY,SCC A '
' LDGV ,XXXX JYYYY
where the subscripts are as denoted previously. Using the LDGV evaporative emissions means
only HAPs in the onroad inventory with LDGV evaporative emissions would have PFC
emissions. For all other HAPs, the same equation was used for all SCC codes. An adjustment of
0.0054 was also applied to naphthalene emissions with and without fuel benzene control, based
on a recent analysis of average nationwide percentage of naphthalene in gasoline vapor from
gasoline distribution with an RVP of 10 psi at 60 degrees Fahrenheit (Hester, 2006; U. S. EPA,
2006b). Table 32 lists the emissions summaries for the no controls inventories and Table 33 lists
the emissions summaries for the controlled inventories. Steps used in creating the HAP
inventories are shown in Figure 10. Full emission summaries can be found in pfc_summaries.xls
in the MSAT rule docket, EPA-HQ-OAR-2005-0036.
53
-------
NMIM base onroad emissions
I Subset to VOC and non-benzene
^1 HAP LDGV evaporative emissions
HAP PFC emssions
, r>rv
. . evapora lve
Qj andsumbyFIPS/CAS emlSS1°"S _ I (2
r
Split LDGV emissions into VOC and
non-benzene HAP evaporative
emissions
1
_E~ ~i_
HAPs | VOC
~l l~
3) Merge by FIPS and
calculate ratio of HAP
emissions to VOC
emissions
r
4) Merge by FIPS and _ +
multiply VOC PFC
non-benzene HAP PFC emisssions -^ — , emissions by ratio and
0.0054 if HAP is
naphthalene
Concatenate and sort by I - 1 Mocated ™"^ VOC PFC
FIPS/SCC/CAS I emissions
i ..... - ...... -,
5 ) Merge by FIPS and
multiply VOC PFC „ 4 w_^ . ..
. ....... . Benzene to VOC refueling
Benzene PFC emisssions •< - emissions by refuehgn ^ -
... . ratios by FIPS
ratio and other appropriate
factors
Figure 10. Steps in creating HAP PFC emissions.
54
-------
Table 32. PFC emissions with and without controls for no benzene fuel controls.
PFC type
Commercial PFC: Evaporation
Commercial PFC: Permeation
Commercial PFC: Refilling at the
Pump: Spillage
Commercial PFC: Refilling at the
Pump: Vapor Displacement
Commercial PFC: Refueling
Equipment: Spillage
Commercial PFC: Refueling
Equipment: Vapor Displacement
Commercial PFC: Spillage
During Transport
Residential PFC: Evaporation
Residential PFC: Permeation
Residential PFC: Refilling at the
Pump: Spillage
Residential PFC: Refilling at the
Pump: Vapor Displacement
Residential PFC: Refueling
Equipment: Spillage
Residential PFC: Refueling
Equipment: Vapor Displacement
Residential PFC: Spillage During
Transport
HAP
Benzene
All HAPs
Benzene
All HAPs
Benzene
All HAPs
Benzene
All HAPs
Benzene
All HAPs
Benzene
All HAPs
Benzene
All HAPs
Benzene
All HAPs
Benzene
All HAPs
Benzene
All HAPs
Benzene
All HAPs
Benzene
All HAPs
Benzene
All HAPs
Benzene
All HAPs
Year
1999
PFC: no
controls
9.30x10°
4.61xl02
8.43x10°
2.40xl02
1.61x10°
8.42X101
l.SSxlO1
9.57xl02
l.OOxlO2
5.17xl03
l.SSxlO1
9.57xl02
4.10X101
2.12xl03
2.91xl02
1.44xl04
2.64xl02
7.50xl03
8.37X10'1
4.38X101
9.51x10°
4.97xl02
S.llxlO1
2.64xl03
9.51x10°
4.97xl02
S.OOxlO1
1.56xl03
2010
PFC: no
controls
9.03x10°
3.92xl02
8.18x10°
2.04xl02
1.80x10°
8.73X101
2.05X101
9.90xl02
8.95X101
4.09xl03
2.05X101
9.90xl02
4.44X101
2.11xl03
2.83xl02
1.23xl04
2.56xl02
6.39xl03
9.37X10'1
4.54X101
1.07X101
5.14xl02
4.57X101
2.09xl03
1.07X101
5.14xl02
3.26X101
1.55xl03
PFC:
with
controls
8.62x10°
3.71xl02
7.82x10°
1.94xl02
1.80x10°
8.73X101
2.05X101
9.90xl02
5.30X101
2.58xl03
2.05X101
9.90xl02
4.35X101
2.07xl03
2.70xl02
1.16xl04
2.45xl02
6.06xl03
9.37X10'1
4.54X101
1.07X101
5.14xl02
2.71X101
1.32xl03
1.07X101
5.14xl02
3.19X101
1.52xl03
2015
PFC:
no
controls
9.55x10°
4.13xl02
8.66x10°
2.15xl02
1.96x10°
9.44X101
2.23X101
1.07xl03
9.66X101
4.40xl03
2.23X101
1.07xl03
4.81X101
2.28xl03
2.99xl02
1.29xl04
2.71xl02
6.75xl03
1.02x10°
4.91X101
1.16X101
5.55xl02
4.94X101
2.25xl03
1.16X101
5.55xl02
3.53X101
1.67xl03
PFC:
with
controls
7.72X10'1
3.93X101
7.00X10'1
2.04X101
1.96x10°
9.44X101
2.23X101
1.07xl03
5.72X101
2.78xl03
2.23X101
1.07xl03
4.29X101
2.06xl03
2.42X101
1.23xl03
2.19X101
6.40xl02
1.02x10°
4.91X101
1.16X101
5.55xl02
2.93X101
1.42xl03
1.16X101
5.55xl02
3.15X101
1.51xl03
2020
PFC:
no
controls
1.02X101
4.37xl02
9.25x10°
2.28xl02
2.12x10°
l.OlxlO2
2.41X101
1.14xl03
1.05xl02
4.72xl03
2.41X101
1.14xl03
5.20X101
2.43xl03
3.19xl02
1.37xl04
2.90xl02
7.14xl03
1.10x10°
5.25X101
1.25X101
5.94xl02
5.35X101
2.41xl03
1.25X101
5.94xl02
S.SlxlO1
1.78xl03
PFC:
with
controls
8.24X10'1
4.14X101
7.47X10'1
2.15X101
2.12x10°
l.OlxlO2
2.41X101
1.14xl03
6.20X101
2.97xl03
2.41X101
1.14xl03
4.64X101
2.20xl03
2.58X101
1.30xl03
2.34X101
6.75xl02
1.10x10°
5.25X101
1.25X101
5.94xl02
3.17X101
1.52xl03
1.25X101
5.94xl02
3.40X101
1.62xl03
2030
PFC:
no
controls
LlSxlO1
4.92xl02
l.OSxlO1
2.57xl02
2.45x10°
1.16xl02
2.79X101
1.31xl03
1.21xl02
5.41xl03
2.79X101
l.SlxlO3
5.99X101
2.78xl03
3.62xl02
1.54xl04
3.28xl02
8.04xl03
1.27x10°
6.02X101
1.45X101
6.82xl02
6.18X101
2.77xl03
1.45X101
6.82xl02
4.39X101
2.04xl03
PFC:
with
controls
9.33X10'1
4.65X101
8.46X10'1
2.42X101
2.45x10°
1.16xl02
2.79X101
1.31xl03
7.16X101
3.41xl03
2.79X101
1.31xl03
5.34X101
2.52xl03
2.92X101
1.46xl03
2.65X101
7.58xl02
1.27x10°
6.02X101
1.45X101
6.82xl02
3.66X101
1.74xl03
1.45X101
6.82xl02
3.92X101
1.85xl03
55
-------
Table 33. PFC emissions with and without controls for benzene fuel controls.
PFC type
Commercial PFC: Evaporation
Commercial PFC: Permeation
Commercial PFC: Refilling at the Pump: Spillage
Commercial PFC: Refilling at the Pump: Vapor
Displacement
Commercial PFC: Refueling Equipment: Spillage
Commercial PFC: Refueling Equipment: Vapor
Displacement
Commercial PFC: Spillage During Transport
Residential PFC: Evaporation
Residential PFC: Permeation
Residential PFC: Refilling at the Pump: Spillage
Residential PFC: Refilling at the Pump: Vapor
Displacement
Residential PFC: Refueling Equipment: Spillage
Residential PFC: Refueling Equipment: Vapor
Displacement
Residential PFC: Spillage During Transport
HAP
Benzene
All HAPs
Benzene
All HAPs
Benzene
All HAPs
Benzene
All HAPs
Benzene
All HAPs
Benzene
All HAPs
Benzene
All HAPs
Benzene
All HAPs
Benzene
All HAPs
Benzene
All HAPs
Benzene
All HAPs
Benzene
All HAPs
Benzene
All HAPs
Benzene
All HAPs
Year
2015
PFC: no
controls
5.79x10°
4.10xl02
5.25x10°
2.12xl02
1.25x10°
9.37X101
1.42X101
1.06xl03
6.02X101
4.36xl03
1.42X101
1.06xl03
S.OSxlO1
2.26xl03
l.SlxlO2
1.28xl04
1.64xl02
6.64xl03
6.50X10'1
4.87X101
7.36x10°
5.51xl02
S.OSxlO1
2.23xl03
7.36x10°
5.51xl02
2.24X101
1.66xl03
PFC:
with
controls
S.OSxlO'1
3.91X101
4.58X10'1
2.02X101
1.25x10°
9.37X101
1.42X101
1.06xl03
3.66X101
2.76xl03
1.42X101
1.06xl03
2.74X101
2.05xl03
l.SSxlO1
1.22xl03
1.43X101
6.33xl02
6.50X10'1
4.87X101
7.36x10°
5.51xl02
1.87X101
1.41xl03
7.36x10°
5.51xl02
2.01X101
1.50xl03
2020
PFC: no
controls
6.19x10°
4.33xl02
5.61x10°
2.24xl02
1.35x10°
l.OOxlO2
1.54X101
1.14xl03
6.52X101
4.68xl03
1.54X101
1.14xl03
S.SOxlO1
2.41xl03
1.94xl02
1.36xl04
1.76xl02
7.02xl03
7.03X10'1
5.21X101
7.97x10°
5.90xl02
3.33X101
2.39xl03
7.97x10°
5.90xl02
2.42X101
1.77xl03
PFC:
with
controls
5.39X10'1
4.12X101
4.89X10'1
2.13X101
1.35x10°
l.OOxlO2
1.54X101
1.14xl03
3.97X101
2.95xl03
1.54X101
1.14xl03
2.96X101
2.19xl03
1.69X101
1.29xl03
1.53X101
6.67xl02
7.03X10'1
5.21X101
7.97x10°
5.90xl02
2.03X101
l.SlxlO3
7.97x10°
5.90xl02
2.17X101
1.60xl03
2030
PFC: no
controls
7.00x10°
4.88xl02
6.35x10°
2.53xl02
1.56x10°
1.15xl02
1.77X101
1.30xl03
7.53X101
5.37xl03
1.77X101
1.30xl03
S.SOxlO1
2.76xl03
2.19xl02
1.53xl04
1.99xl02
7.91xl03
S.lSxlO'1
5.97X101
9.20x10°
6.76xl02
3.85X101
2.74xl03
9.20x10°
6.76xl02
2.78X101
2.02xl03
PFC:
with
controls
6.10X10'1
4.62X101
5.53X10'1
2.39X101
1.56x10°
1.15xl02
1.77X101
1.30xl03
4.58X101
3.38xl03
1.77X101
1.30xl03
3.41X101
2.50xl03
1.91X101
1.45xl03
1.73X101
7.49xl02
S.lSxlO'1
5.97X101
9.20x10°
6.76xl02
2.34X101
1.73xl03
9.20x10°
6.76xl02
2.50X101
1.83xl03
56
-------
4. Creation of stationary inventories
This section describes the methodology used to develop growth factors, reduction factors, and
other inventory changes used to project the stationary (point and non-point inventories) to
various future years, including 2015 and 2020, which are the MS AT years of interest by Strum et
al. (2006). As previously noted, 1999 stationary source emissions were not projected to 2030
because of uncertainty in 2030 projection information; 2020 stationary emissions were used for
both 2020 and 2030 with the exception of PFC emissions.
The general approach was to develop growth and reduction factors, and apply them using EMS-
HAP Version 3.0. For one category (medical waste incineration), however, a draft 2002
emission inventory was used to represent emissions for all future years (Section 4.3).
4.1 Growth factors
Three sets of growth factors (GFs) were developed for input into EMS-HAP for use in growing
stationary source emissions: Maximum Achievable Control Technology (MACT)-based GFs,
Standard Industrial Classification (SlC)-based GFs and SCC-based GFs. Depending upon the
particular code (i.e., MACT, SCC, SIC), the GFs were national, state-level or county level.
EMS-HAP uses the most specific level of data (county) available within a particular GF file.
Thus, if a SIC-based GF file contained state and county GFs for the same SIC, and if the county
in the GF file matched the county in the inventory, EMS-HAP would apply the county SIC-based
GF. Also, in EMS-HAP, if an inventory record matches to GFs in multiple files, the MACT-
based GF overrides the SIC-based GF, which overrides the SCC-based one.
For stationary sources, growth factors were developed using three sources of information:
• Regional Economic Model, Inc. (REMI) Policy Insight® model, version 5.5 (REMI,
2004; Fan et al., 2000),
• Regional and National fuel-use forecast data from the U.S. Department of Energy,
Annual Energy Outlook for the years 2004, 2001 and 2002 (Energy Information
Administration, 2005), and
• Rule development leads or economists who had obtained economic information in the
process of rule development.
The first two sources of information were also used in projecting criteria pollutant emissions for
the Clean Air Interstate Rule (U.S. EPA, 2005a). Earlier versions of REMI and AEO were used
to develop the EGAS 4.0, which provides growth factors from 1996 up to 2020 (E.H. Pechan and
Associates, 2001).
57
-------
4.1.1 MACT based growth factors
The MACT-based growth factors used in the projections are shown in Table 34 (national level
growth factors) and Table 35 (state level growth factors for utility boilers, coal, which is
MACT=1808-1). Most growth factors were based on data from rule development project leads.
Some leads estimated that particular categories were not expected to experience any growth, and
were assigned growth factors of 1.0. Some leads provided a per year rate, which resulted in a
formula of raising a percent growth to a power, where the power was the number of years
between the future year and 1999. In one case, for primary aluminum production
(MACT=0201), year-specific growth factors based on a 1996 base year were provided; we
determined the 1999 base year growth factors as the ratio of the future year's growth factor and
1999 growth factor from the 1996 base year information (Table 34). All MACT-based growth
factors in the files were national level growth factors with the exception of 1808-1 (coal burning
utility boilers). These growth factors were developed at the state level, using Integrated Planning
Model (IPM) run results from the IAQR proposal (http://www.epa.gov/airmarkets/epa-
ipm/iaqr.htmn (U. S. EPA, 2004c). The IPM data were available for 2010 and 2015; thus
growth factors for 1808-1 for other years were computed using interpolation, with 2020 being set
equal to 2015. For years prior to 2010 the interpolation equation was:
GFX = 1+ ((X- 1999) x (GF2010 - I)/(2010- 1999)) (18)
where X is 2015 or 2020.
58
-------
Table 34. National level MACT growth factors for 2015 and 2020.
MACT
0101-2
0105
0108
0201
0302
0303
0409
0412
0415
0705
0707
0802
1001
1101
1609
1614
1621
1631
1643
1801
1802
1808-2
1808-3
Description
Rocket Engine Test
Firing
Stationary RICE
Stationary
Combustion Turbines
Primary Aluminum
Production
Coke Ovens:
Charging, Top Side,
and Door Leaks
Coke Ovens:
Pushing, Quenching,
& Battery Stacks
Mineral Wool
Production
Wool Fiberglass
Manufacturing
Clay Ceramics
Manufacturing
Magnetic Tapes
(Surface Coating)
Metal Can (Surface
Coating)
Municipal Landfills
Acrylic/Modacrylic
Fibers Production
Manufacture of
Nutritional Yeast
Commercial
Sterilization Facilities
Halogenated Solvent
Cleaners
Paint Stripping
Operations
Rubber Tire
Production
Dry Cleaning:
Perchloroethylene
Medical Waste
Incinerators
Municipal Waste
Combustors
Utility Boilers:
Natural Gas
Utility Boilers: Oil
Methodology*
no growth
5% growth per year
0.8% growth per year
Future year's 1996 based
growth factor divided by 1999
growth factor based on 1996
4% decline per year
4% decline per year
no growth
no growth
no growth
no growth
no growth
no growth
no growth before 2007, 1%
growth after 2007
growth factors based on 2020
GF=1.14
0.5% growth per year
no growth
decline by 40% from 1999 to
2010 Keep same growth factor
as 2010 for all future years
thereafter.
increase by 2% per year from
1999 to 2020.
no growth
no growth; future set to 2002
emissions. See Section 4.3
no growth
no growth
no growth
Equation
GF=1
GF=1.05(year-1999)
GF=1.008(year-1999)
GF=GF1996/(1999 GF1996)
1999 GF1996 = 0.832
2015GF1996= 1.025
2020 GF1996= 1.11
GF=0.96(year-1999)
GF=0.96(year-1999)
GF=1
GF=1
GF=1
GF=1
GF=1
GF=1
GF=1 before 2007
QF=1 oi(year~2007)
1.006258947(year-1999)
L005(year-1999,
GF=1
GF=0.954623 (year-1999)
GF=0.6 for 2010 and
beyond
I Q2(year-1999)
GF=1
GF=1
GF=1
GF=1
GF= 1
Growth Factors
2015
1.0000
2.1829
1.1360
1.2320
0.5204
0.5204
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0829
1.1045
1.0831
1.0000
0.6
1.3728
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
2020
1.0000
2.7860
1.1821
1.3341
0.4243
0.4243
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.1381
1.1400
1.1104
1.0000
0.6
1.5157
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
* growth factor methodologies provided by project leads
59
-------
Table 35. Utility Boilers: Coal (MACT= 1808-1) state level growth factors for 2015 and 2020.
State
FIPS
01
02
04
05
06
08
09
10
11
12
13
15
16
17
18
19
20
State
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
District of
Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Growth
Factor
1.0124
1.0291
0.8722
1.0505
1.1607
0.9969
2.9294
1.1898
1.0000
0.9407
1.1779
1.0291
1.0000
1.1783
1.0211
0.9547
1.1285
State
FIPS
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
State
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New
Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
Growth
Factor
1.0061
0.7512
0.8222
0.8925
0.6548
1.0635
1.0894
1.1299
1.1095
0.9568
1.1353
1.1310
0.9262
1.3554
0.9538
1.1976
1.1753
State
FIPS
38
39
40
41
42
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
53
54
55
56
State
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
Growth
Factor
0.8446
1.1332
0.9677
0.9657
1.1294
1.0000
1.1315
0.9049
1.0324
0.8056
0.8566
1.0000
0.9378
1.0034
1.0764
1.2966
0.8366
In Table 35, Alaska and Hawaii were set equal to the average 48 state growth factor.
Note, MACT codes in the NEI that are not listed in Tables 34 and 35 were not assigned a
MACT-based growth factor. Instead growth for sources with those MACT codes were grown
using the SIC or SCC based growth factors, described in the next sections.
The actual MACT-based growth factors files containing the data described above are provided
with the EMS-HAP version 3.0 projection-related ancillary files, at
http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/emch/proiection/emshap30.html and also in the MSAT rule docket
(EPA-HQ-OAR-2005-0036).
60
-------
4.1.2 SIC based growth factors
State-specific SIC-based growth factors, for specific standard industrial codes (SIC) were
developed using the Regional Economic Model, Inc. (REMI) Policy Insight® model, version 5.5
(being used in the development of the Economic Growth Analysis System (EGAS), version 5.0,
(U.S. EPA, 2005c)). The REMI model forecasts economic activity by region and for individual
sectors of the economy. By making assumptions about which economic indicators can represent
emissions growth, growth factors can be developed for projecting emission inventories. A
review of these growth factors for the development of the Clean Air Interstate Rule (U.S. EPA,
2005a) projected inventories, led to changes to about thirty SIC-based growth factors where they
were unrealistic or highly uncertain (U.S. EPA 2005a). They were replaced with data (national-
level) from industry forecasts, bureau of labor statistics (BLS) projections and Bureau of
Economic Analysis (BEA) historical growth from 1986 - 2002 (U. S. EPA, 2005a). These SIC
codes are shown in Table 36. Also SIC 1041 (Mining of gold ores) was set to no growth
(GF=1.0). Growth factors for 3322 (Malleable iron foundries) and 3324 (Steel investment
foundries) were set equal to the growth factors for SIC 3321.
Table 36. SIC codes changed due to unrealistic growth factors.
SIC
Description
1311
Oil And Gas Extraction, Crude Petroleum And Natural Gas, Crude petroleum and natural gas
1321
Oil And Gas Extraction, Natural Gas Liquids, Natural gas liquids
2821
Chemicals And Allied Products, Plastics Materials and Synthetics, Plastics materials and resins
2822
Chemicals And Allied Products, Plastics Materials and Synthetics, Synthetic rubber
2823
Chemicals And Allied Products, Plastics Materials and Synthetics, Cellulosic manmade fibers
2851
Chemicals And Allied Products, Paints and Allied Products, Paints and allied products
2873
Chemicals And Allied Products, Agricultural Chemicals, Nitrogenous fertilizers
2874
Chemicals And Allied Products, Agricultural Chemicals, Phosphatic fertilizers
2895
Chemicals And Allied Products, Miscellaneous Chemical Products, Carbon black
3011
Rubber And Misc. Plastics Products, Tires and Inner Tubes, Tires and inner tubes
3211
Stone, Clay, And Glass Products, Flat Glass, Flat glass
3221
Stone, Clay, And Glass Products, Glass and Glassware, Pressed Or Blown, Glass containers
3229
Stone, Clay, And Glass Products, Glass and Glassware, Pressed Or Blown, Pressed and blown glass, nee
Stone, Clay, And Glass Products, Cement, Hydraulic, Cement, hydraulic
3241
3321
Primary Metal Industries, Iron and Steel Foundries, Gray and ductile iron foundries
3325
Primary Metal Industries, Iron and Steel Foundries, Steel foundries, nee
3331
Primary Metal Industries, Primary Nonferrous Metals, Primary copper
3334
Primary Metal Industries, Primary Nonferrous Metals, Primary aluminum
3339
Primary Metal Industries, Primary Nonferrous Metals, Primary nonferrous metals, nee
3411
Fabricated Metal Products, Metal Cans and Shipping Containers, Metal cans
3441
Fabricated Metal Products, Fabricated Structural Metal Products, Fabricated structural metal
3471
Fabricated Metal Products, Metal Services, Nee, Plating and polishing
3479
Fabricated Metal Products, Metal Services, Nee, Metal coating and allied services
3497
Fabricated Metal Products, Misc. Fabricated Metal Products, Metal foil & leaf
3499
Fabricated Metal Products, Misc. Fabricated Metal Products, Fabricated metal products, nee
3711
Transportation Equipment, Motor Vehicles and Equipment, Motor vehicles and car bodies
3713
Transportation Equipment, Motor Vehicles and Equipment, Truck and bus bodies
3714
Transportation Equipment, Motor Vehicles and Equipment, Motor vehicle parts and accessories
3715
Transportation Equipment, Motor Vehicles and Equipment, Truck trailers
61
-------
The actual SIC-based growth factors files containing the data described above are provided with
the EMS-HAP version 3.0 projection-related ancillary files, at
http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/emch/proiection/emshap30.html and in the MSAT rule docket
(EPA-HQ-OAR-2005-0036).
4.1.3 SCC based growth factors
SCC based growth factors for stationary sources were derived from four sources: 1) REMI
model (discussed in Section 4.1.2), 2) Energy Information Administration's National Energy
Modeling System (Energy Information Administration, 2005), and 3) aviation gasoline emissions
(discussed in Section 3.2). The National Energy Modeling system was used to calculate growth
factors for emission sources related to energy use such as residential heating. The data are
provided at a division level, with the country divided into nine divisions, for some sectors (e.g.,
residential fuel use), and at the national level for more detailed industrial sectors (e.g., paper).
Growth factors were developed at the most detailed geographic scale (e.g., developed State-level
growth factors from the division information) and sectors available. The AEO data were then
mapped to SCC codes (Bollman, 2004). In addition to the three sources of data above, emissions
for fires (wild and prescribed) were assumed to remain flat, i.e. no growth. For all SCC codes,
growth factors were at national or state level.
In the growth factor files that are input into EMS-HAP, instead of listing growth factors by SCC,
each SCC is assigned a growth indicator group. These groups consist of related SCC codes that
shared common growth factors. For example, for the aviation gasoline distribution SCC codes,
instead of listing the growth factor for each of the individual SCC codes, the aviation gasoline
distribution SCC codes are assigned the growth indicator group "TAP for General Aviation" and
the growth factors cross-referenced by growth indicator group instead of SCC. This cuts down
on the number of records in the SCC-based growth factor files. Example records showing the
SCC based growth factor file format are shown in Figure 3 in Section 3.2.
The actual SCC-based growth factors files containing the data described above are provided with
the EMS-HAP version 3.0 projection-related ancillary files, at
http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/emch/projection/emshap30.html and in the MSAT rule docket
(EPA-HQ-OAR-2005-0036).
4.2 Reduction factors
Not only does EMS-HAP allow the user to specify the growth factors for emissions sources,
EMS-HAP also allows for reduction of emissions. Reduction factors were applied to the grown
stationary source emissions to account for regulatory impacts and plant closures.
The percent reductions were primarily based on estimates of national average reductions for
specific HAPs or for groups of HAPs from a source category or subcategory as a result of
regulatory efforts. These efforts are primarily the MACT and Section 129 standards, mandated
in Title III of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments. Percent reductions were determined by, as
well as information on applicability and compliance dates, whether they apply to "major" only or
62
-------
both "major" and "area" sources. With regards to applicability it was necessary to gather
information for the various rules from rule preambles, fact sheets and through the project leads
(questionnaire and phone calls). A major source is defined as any stationary source or group of
stationary sources located within a contiguous area and under common control that has the
potential to emit, considering controls, in the aggregate, 10 tons per year or more of any
hazardous air pollutant or 25 tons per year or more of any combination of hazardous air
pollutants; the status of a point source as "major" is indicated in the NEI by the field called
"FACILITY CATEGORY". For some rules, percent reductions were provided for specific
HAPs or groups of HAPs (e.g., all metals, or all volatiles) rather than a single number for all
HAPs in the categories. Information was also received on plant closures for several categories
such as coke ovens and municipal waste combustors. For the "utility boilers coal" category, it
was assumed that the acid gases (hydrochloric acid, hydrogen fluoride and chlorine) would be
reduced by the same amount as SO2 due to co-benefits of potential controls. State-level SO2
reductions were calculated using 862 projected emissions from the Integrated Planning Model
(IPM) runs done for proposed CAIR (U. S. EPA, 2004c) and applied these reductions to the acid
gas emissions. At the time of the projections, the IPM runs for the final CAIR rule were not
available.
Emission reductions were applied in EMS-HAP by MACT code; some were HAP and MACT
specific, some were SCC and MACT specific. Site specific reductions such as plant closures or
estimations of reductions expected from particular facilities in the source category, were applied
by the EMS-HAP site id; process specific, site specific reductions used the SCC as well.
A list of the source categories to which reductions were applied in EMS-HAP, either to facilities
in the category or the entire category, is presented in Table 37. Note that this does not include
the impacts of all of the rules, only those for which HAP emission reductions could be estimated
and for which the compliance date was later than 1999, or for which information on closures was
obtained. In addition, if the inventory did not have emissions for which the rule was expected to
impact, then that was also left out of the table. It also does not include reductions from MWI, as
discussed in the next section.
The actual reduction information for these source categories is provided with the EMS-HAP
version 3.0 projection-related ancillary files, at
http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/emch/projection/emshap30.html along with more detailed
descriptions and summaries of the data. The reduction information and detailed summaries and
descriptions can also be found in the MSAT rule docket (EPA-HQ-OAR-2005-0036).
63
-------
Table 37. Summary of Categories for which reductions were applied in EMS-HAP.
Category
Category
Amino/Phenolic Resins Production: POLYMERS &
RESINS III
Ammonium Sulfate - Caprolactam By-Product Plants:
THE MON
Asphalt roofing and Processing
Boat Manufacturing
Brick and Structural Clay Products Manufacturing
Carbon Black Production
Carbonyl Sulfide (COS) Production
Cellulose products manufacturing
Commercial/Industrial Solid Waste Incineration
(ClSWI)Coke Ovens: Charging, Topside and Door
Leaks Coke Ovens: Pushing, Quenching, & Battery
Stacks Cyanide Chemicals Manufacturing Ethylene
Processes Flexible Polyurethane Foam Production
Friction Products Manufacturing
Hazardous Waste Incineration and its subcategories:
Commercial Haz. Waste Incinerators, On-Site Haz.
Waste Incinerators, Cement Kilns, Lightweight
Aggregate Kilns
Industrial/Commercial/ Institutional Boilers & Process
Heaters
Industrial/Commercial/ Institutional Boilers & Process
Heaters (Coal)
Integrated Iron & Steel Manufacturing
Iron Foundries
Leather Tanning & Finishing Operations
Lime Manufacturing
Manufacturing of Nutritional Yeast
Mineral Wool Production
Municipal Solid Waste Landfills
Miscellaneous Organic Chemical Products & Processes
Miscellaneous Coatings Manufacturing
Municipal Waste Combustors
Primary Aluminum Production
Primary Copper Smelting
Primary Magnesium Refining
Secondary Aluminum Production
Stationary Reciprocating Internal Combustion Engines
Natural Gas Transmission & Storage
Off-Site Waste and Recovery Operations
Oil & Natural Gas Production
Organic Liquids Distribution (Non-Gasoline)
Pesticide Active Ingredient Production
Petroleum Refineries - Catalytic Cracking, Catalytic
Reforming, & Sulfur Plant Units (10 yr)
Petroleum Refineries - Other Sources Not Distinctly
Listed (4yr)
Pharmaceuticals Production
Reinforced Plastic Composites Production
Phosphate Fertilizers Production& Phosphoric Acid
Manufacturing
Plywood and Composite Wood Products
Polyether Polyols Production
Portland Cement Manufacturing
Pulp & Paper Production - Combustion &
Noncombustion.
Refractories Products Manufacturing
Rubber Tire Production
Secondary Aluminum Production
Secondary Lead Smelting
Site Remediation
Solvent Extraction for Vegetable Oil Production
Stationary Reciprocating Internal Combustion Engines
Surface coating related categories:
• Auto & Light Duty Truck
• Wood Building Products
• Large Appliances
• Metal Can
• Metal Coil
• Metal Furniture
• Miscellaneous Metal Parts
• Paper & Other Webs
• Plastic Parts & Products
• Fabric Coating Dying and Printing
• Printing/Publishing
Steel Pickling - HCL Process
Taconite Iron Ore Processing
Viscose Process Manufacturing
Wet-Formed Fiberglass Mat Production
Wool Fiberglass Manufacturing
Utility Boilers: Coal
64
-------
4.3 Other inventory adjustments
In addition to the growth and reduction factors, several other adjustments were made to the
stationary inventories. This included:
• the adjustment of gasoline distribution emissions
• control of adjusted benzene gasoline distribution emissions
• the removal of vehicle refueling emissions
• inclusion of PFC emissions (reference and controlled) to the inventories for EMS-HAP
processing
The vehicle refueling emissions, which were part of the stationary inventories for the 1999 NEI
were included in the onroad inventories described in Section 3.2, so they were removed from the
stationary inventories to avoid double counting. For 2015, 2020 and 2030, two stationary
inventories were developed:
1. a reference inventory of:
a. adjusted gasoline distribution emissions without benzene controls
b. uncontrolled PFC emissions (no PFC controls or benzene fuel controls)
c. other stationary sources, excluding vehicle refueling
2. a controlled inventory of:
a. the adjusted gasoline distribution emissions with benzene controls
b. controlled PFC emissions (PFC controls and benzene fuel controls applied)
c. other stationary sources, excluding vehicle refueling.
It should be noted that for 2030, with the exception of the PFC emissions, the remaining
stationary emissions, including gasoline distribution emissions were the 2020 stationary
emissions. This is due to 2030 not being initially projected for stationary sources.
4.3.1 Calculation of gasoline distribution adjustment factors
The current gasoline marketing projections for 2015 and 2020 developed by Strum et al. (2006)
were based on projection information (growth factors, closures, reductions, etc.) from the 1999
NEI. With the recent availability of the 2002 NEI, the current projected emissions for gasoline
distribution were to be adjusted using adjustment factors based on the 2002 NEI and the
projected 2002 emissions for benzene, toluene, xylenes, naphthalene, ethyl benzene, n-hexane,
MTBE, 2,2,4-trimethylpentane.
65
-------
For calculation of the adjustment factors, emissions of the SCC codes in Table 38 were included
in the calculations. There was one additional gasoline distribution SCC code, 2501995120
(Storage and Transport; Petroleum and Petroleum Product Storage; All Storage Types: Working
Loss; Gasoline) that was not included in the adjustments. This SCC code was not included in the
draft 2002 NEI so it was not included in the adjustments.
66
-------
Table 38. Gasoline distribution SCC codes used in calculation of adjustment factors.
SCC
2501000000
2501060050
2501060052
2501060200
2501080000
2501080100
2505000120
2505020000
2505020121
40400101
40400103
40400105
40400107
40400109
Description
Storage and Transport; Petroleum and Petroleum Product
Storage; All Storage Types: Breathing Loss; Total: All
Products
Storage and Transport; Petroleum and Petroleum Product
Storage; Gasoline Service Stations; Stage 1 : Total
Storage and Transport; Petroleum and Petroleum Product
Storage; Gasoline Service Stations; Stage 1: Splash Filling
Storage and Transport; Petroleum and Petroleum Product
Storage; Gasoline Service Stations; Underground Tank: Total
Aviation Gasoline Distribution: Stage 1 & II
Aviation Gasoline Storage -Stage II
Storage and Transport; Petroleum and Petroleum Product
Transport; All Transport Types; Gasoline
Storage and Transport; Petroleum and Petroleum Product
Transport; Marine Vessel; Total: All Products
Marine Vessel Operations - Barge Handling of Gasoline
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids
Storage (non-Refinery); Bulk Terminals; Gasoline RVP 13:
Breathing Loss (67000 Bbl Capacity) - Fixed Roof Tank
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids
Storage (non-Refinery); Bulk Terminals; Gasoline RVP 7:
Breathing Loss (67000 Bbl. Capacity) - Fixed Roof Tank
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids
Storage (non-Refinery); Bulk Terminals; Gasoline RVP 10:
Breathing Loss (250000 Bbl Capacity)-Fixed Roof Tank
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids
Storage (non-Refinery); Bulk Terminals; Gasoline RVP 13:
Working Loss (Diam. Independent) - Fixed Roof Tank
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids
Storage (non-Refinery); Bulk Terminals; Gasoline RVP 7:
Working Loss (Diameter Independent) - Fixed Roof Tank
SCC
2501050120
2501060051
2501060053
2501060201
2501080050
2505000000
2505010000
2505020120
2505030120
40400102
40400104
40400106
40400108
40400110
Description
Storage and Transport; Petroleum and Petroleum Product
Storage; Bulk Stations/Terminals: Breathing Loss; Gasoline
Storage and Transport; Petroleum and Petroleum Product
Storage; Gasoline Service Stations; Stage 1: Submerged
Filling
Storage and Transport; Petroleum and Petroleum Product
Storage; Gasoline Service Stations; Stage 1 : Balanced
Submerged Filling
Storage and Transport; Petroleum and Petroleum Product
Storage; Gasoline Service Stations; Underground Tank:
Breathing and Emptying
Aviation Gasoline Storage -Stage I
Storage and Transport; Petroleum and Petroleum Product
Transport; All Transport Types; Total: All Products
Storage and Transport; Petroleum and Petroleum Product
Transport; Rail Tank Car; Total: All Products
Storage and Transport; Petroleum and Petroleum Product
Transport; Marine Vessel; Gasoline
Storage and Transport; Petroleum and Petroleum Product
Transport; Truck; Gasoline
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids
Storage (non-Refinery); Bulk Terminals; Gasoline RVP 10:
Breathing Loss (67000 Bbl Capacity) - Fixed Roof Tank
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids
Storage (non-Refinery); Bulk Terminals; Gasoline RVP 13:
Breathing Loss (250000 Bbl Capacity)-Fixed Roof Tank
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids
Storage (non-Refinery); Bulk Terminals; Gasoline RVP 7:
Breathing Loss (250000 Bbl Capacity) - Fixed Roof Tank
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids
Storage (non-Refinery); Bulk Terminals; Gasoline RVP 10:
Working Loss (Diameter Independent) - Fixed Roof Tank
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids
Storage (non-Refinery); Bulk Terminals; Gasoline RVP 13:
Standing Loss (67000 Bbl Capacity)-Floating Roof Tank
67
-------
Table 38. o
sec
40400111
40400113
40400115
40400117
40400119
40400131
40400141
40400143
40400150
40400152
40400154
40400162
ntinued
Description
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids
Storage (non-Refinery); Bulk Terminals; Gasoline RVP 10:
Standing Loss (67000 Bbl Capacity-Floating Roof Tank
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids
Storage (non-Refinery); Bulk Terminals; Gasoline RVP 13:
Standing Loss (250000 Bbl Cap.) - Floating Roof Tank
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids
Storage (non-Refinery); Bulk Terminals; Gasoline RVP 7:
Standing Loss (250000 Bbl Cap.) - Floating Roof Tank
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids
Storage (non-Refinery); Bulk Terminals; Gasoline RVP
13/10/7: Withdrawal Loss (250000 Bbl Cap.) - Float Rf Tnk
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids
Storage (non-Refinery); Bulk Terminals; Gasoline RVP 10:
Filling Loss (10500 Bbl Cap.) - Variable Vapor Space
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids
Storage (non-Refinery); Bulk Terminals; Gasoline RVP 13:
Standing Loss - Ext. Floating Roof w/ Primary Seal
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids
Storage (non-Refinery); Bulk Terminals; Gasoline RVP 13:
Standing Loss - Ext. Floating Roof w/ Secondary Seal
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids
Storage (non-Refinery); Bulk Terminals; Gasoline RVP 7:
Standing Loss - Ext. Floating Roof w/ Secondary Seal
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids
Storage (non-Refinery); Bulk Terminals; Miscellaneous
Losses/Leaks: Loading Racks
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids
Storage (non-Refinery); Bulk Terminals; Vapor Collection
Losses
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids
Storage (non-Refinery); Bulk Terminals; Tank Truck Vapor
Leaks
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids
Storage (non-Refinery); Bulk Terminals; Gasoline RVP 10:
Standing Loss - Int. Floating Roof w/ Primary Seal
sec
40400112
40400114
40400116
40400118
40400120
40400132
40400142
40400148
40400151
40400153
40400161
40400163
Description
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids
Storage (non-Refinery); Bulk Terminals; Gasoline RVP 7:
Standing Loss (67000 Bbl Capacity)- Floating Roof Tank
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids
Storage (non-Refinery); Bulk Terminals; Gasoline RVP 10:
Standing Loss (250000 Bbl Cap.) - Floating Roof Tank
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids
Storage (non-Refinery); Bulk Terminals; Gasoline RVP
13/10/7: Withdrawal Loss (67000 Bbl Cap.) - Float Rf Tnk
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids
Storage (non-Refinery); Bulk Terminals; Gasoline RVP 13:
Filling Loss (10500 Bbl Cap.) - Variable Vapor Space
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids
Storage (non-Refinery); Bulk Terminals; Gasoline RVP 7:
Filling Loss (10500 Bbl Cap.) - Variable Vapor Space
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids
Storage (non-Refinery); Bulk Terminals; Gasoline RVP 10:
Standing Loss - Ext. Floating Roof w/ Primary Seal
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids
Storage (non-Refinery); Bulk Terminals; Gasoline RVP 10:
Standing Loss - Ext. Floating Roof w/ Secondary Seal
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids
Storage (non-Refinery); Bulk Terminals; Gasoline RVP
13/10/7: Withdrawal Loss - Ext. Float Roof (Pri/Sec Seal)
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids
Storage (non-Refinery); Bulk Terminals; Valves, Flanges, and
Pumps
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids
Storage (non-Refinery); Bulk Terminals; Vapor Control Unit
Losses
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids
Storage (non-Refinery); Bulk Terminals; Gasoline RVP 13:
Standing Loss - Int. Floating Roof w/ Primary Seal
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids
Storage (non-Refinery); Bulk Terminals; Gasoline RVP 7:
Standing Loss - Internal Floating Roof w/ Primary Seal
68
-------
Table 38. Continued
sec
40400171
40400173
40400201
40400203
40400205
40400207
40400209
40400212
40400231
40400242
40400251
40400253
Description
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids Storage
(non-Refinery); Bulk Terminals; Gasoline RVP 13: Standing
Loss - Int. Floating Roof w/ Secondary Seal
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids Storage
(non-Refinery); Bulk Terminals; Gasoline RVP 7: Standing
Loss - Int. Floating Roof w/ Secondary Seal
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids Storage
(non-Refinery); Bulk Plants; Gasoline RVP 13: Breathing Loss
(67000 Bbl Capacity) - Fixed Roof Tank
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids Storage
(non-Refinery); Bulk Plants; Gasoline RVP 7: Breathing Loss
(67000 Bbl. Capacity) - Fixed Roof Tank
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids Storage
(non-Refinery); Bulk Plants; Gasoline RVP 10: Working Loss
(67000 Bbl. Capacity) - Fixed Roof Tank
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids Storage
(non-Refinery); Bulk Plants; Gasoline RVP 13: Standing Loss
(67000 Bbl Cap.) - Floating Roof Tank
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids Storage
(non-Refinery); Bulk Plants; Gasoline RVP 7: Standing Loss
(67000 Bbl Cap.) - Floating Roof Tank
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids Storage
(non-Refinery); Bulk Plants; Gasoline RVP 10: Filling Loss
(10500 Bbl Cap.) - Variable Vapor Space
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids Storage
(non-Refinery); Bulk Plants; Gasoline RVP 13: Standing Loss -
Ext. Floating Roof w/ Primary Seal
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids Storage
(non-Refinery); Bulk Plants; Gasoline RVP 10: Standing Loss -
Ext. Floating Roof w/ Secondary Seal
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids Storage
(non-Refinery); Bulk Plants; Valves, Flanges, and Pumps
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids Storage
(non-Refinery); Bulk Plants; Miscellaneous Losses/Leaks:
Vapor Control Unit Losses
sec
40400172
40400178
40400202
40400204
40400206
40400208
40400210
40400213
40400241
40400250
40400252
40400254
Description
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids
Storage (non-Refinery); Bulk Terminals; Gasoline RVP 10:
Standing Loss - Int. Floating Roof w/ Secondary Seal
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids
Storage (non-Refinery); Bulk Terminals; Gasoline RVP
13/10/7: Withdrawal Loss - Int. Float Roof (Pri/Sec Seal)
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids
Storage (non-Refinery); Bulk Plants; Gasoline RVP 10:
Breathing Loss (67000 Bbl Capacity) - Fixed Roof Tank
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids
Storage (non-Refinery); Bulk Plants; Gasoline RVP 13:
Working Loss (67000 Bbl. Capacity) - Fixed Roof Tank
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids
Storage (non-Refinery); Bulk Plants; Gasoline RVP 7:
Working Loss (67000 Bbl. Capacity) - Fixed Roof Tank
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids
Storage (non-Refinery); Bulk Plants; Gasoline RVP 10:
Standing Loss (67000 Bbl Cap.) - Floating Roof Tank
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids
Storage (non-Refinery); Bulk Plants; Gasoline RVP 13/10/7:
Withdrawal Loss (67000 Bbl Cap.) - Float Rf Tnk
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids
Storage (non-Refinery); Bulk Plants; Gasoline RVP 7: Filling
Loss (10500 Bbl Cap.) - Variable Vapor Space
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids
Storage (non-Refinery); Bulk Plants; Gasoline RVP 13:
Standing Loss - Ext. Floating Roof w/ Secondary Seal
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids
Storage (non-Refinery); Bulk Plants; Loading Racks
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids
Storage (non-Refinery); Bulk Plants; Miscellaneous
Losses/Leaks: Vapor Collection Losses
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids
Storage (non-Refinery); Bulk Plants; Tank Truck Vapor
Losses
69
-------
Table 38. Continued
sec
40400261
40400263
40400401
40400403
40400405
40400497
406001
40600126
40600136
40600144
40600162
406002
Description
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids Storage
(non-Refinery); Bulk Plants; Gasoline RVP 13: Standing Loss -
Int. Floating Roof w/ Primary Seal
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids Storage
(non-Refinery); Bulk Plants; Gasoline RVP 7: Standing Loss -
Internal Floating Roof w/ Primary Seal
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids Storage
(non-Refinery); Petroleum Products - Underground Tanks;
Gasoline RVP 13: Breathing Loss
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids Storage
(non-Refinery); Petroleum Products - Underground Tanks;
Gasoline RVP 10: Breathing Loss
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids Storage
(non-Refinery); Petroleum Products - Underground Tanks;
Gasoline RVP 7: Breathing Loss
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids Storage
(non-Refinery); Petroleum Products - Underground Tanks;
Specify Liquid: Breathing Loss
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Transportation and
Marketing of Petroleum Products; Tank Cars and Trucks
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Transportation and
Marketing of Petroleum Products; Tank Cars and Trucks;
Gasoline: Submerged Loading **
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Transportation and
Marketing of Petroleum Products; Tank Cars and Trucks;
Gasoline: Splash Loading (Normal Service)
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Transportation and
Marketing of Petroleum Products; Tank Cars and Trucks;
Gasoline: Splash Loading (Balanced Service)
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Transportation and
Marketing of Petroleum Products; Tank Cars and Trucks;
Gasoline: Loaded with Fuel (Transit Losses)
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Transportation and
Marketing of Petroleum Products; Marine Vessels
sec
40400262
40400278
40400402
40400404
40400406
40400498
40600101
40600131
40600141
40600147
40600163
40600231
Description
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids
Storage (non-Refinery); Bulk Plants; Gasoline RVP 10:
Standing Loss - Int. Floating Roof w/ Primary Seal
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids
Storage (non-Refinery); Bulk Plants; Gasoline RVP 10/13/7:
Withdrawal Loss - Int. Float Roof (Pri/Sec Seal)
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids
Storage (non-Refinery); Petroleum Products - Underground
Tanks; Gasoline RVP 13: Working Loss
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids
Storage (non-Refinery); Petroleum Products - Underground
Tanks; Gasoline RVP 10: Working Loss
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids
Storage (non-Refinery); Petroleum Products - Underground
Tanks; Gasoline RVP 7: Working Loss
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Petroleum Liquids
Storage (non-Refinery); Petroleum Products - Underground
Tanks; Specify Liquid: Working Loss
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Transportation and
Marketing of Petroleum Products; Tank Cars and Trucks;
Gasoline: Splash Loading **
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Transportation and
Marketing of Petroleum Products; Tank Cars and Trucks;
Gasoline: Submerged Loading (Normal Service)
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Transportation and
Marketing of Petroleum Products; Tank Cars and Trucks;
Gasoline: Submerged Loading (Balanced Service)
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Transportation and
Marketing of Petroleum Products; Tank Cars and Trucks;
Gasoline: Submerged Loading (Clean Tanks)
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Transportation and
Marketing of Petroleum Products; Tank Cars and Trucks;
Gasoline: Return with Vapor (Transit Losses)
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Transportation and
Marketing of Petroleum Products; Marine Vessels; Gasoline:
Ship Loading - Cleaned and Vapor Free Tanks
70
-------
Table 38. Continued
sec
40600232
40600234
40600237
40600239
40600241
40600301
40600305
40600307
40600706
40688801
Description
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Transportation and
Marketing of Petroleum Products; Marine Vessels; Gasoline:
Ocean Barges Loading
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Transportation and
Marketing of Petroleum Products; Marine Vessels; Gasoline:
Ship Loading - Ballasted Tank
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Transportation and
Marketing of Petroleum Products; Marine Vessels; Gasoline:
Ocean Barges Loading - Uncleaned Tanks
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Transportation and
Marketing of Petroleum Products; Marine Vessels; Gasoline:
Tanker Ship - Ballasted Tank Condition
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Transportation and
Marketing of Petroleum Products; Marine Vessels; Gasoline:
Tanker Ship - Ballasting
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Transportation and
Marketing of Petroleum Products; Gasoline Retail Operations -
Stage I; Splash Filling
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Transportation and
Marketing of Petroleum Products; Gasoline Retail Operations -
Stage I; Unloading **
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Transportation and
Marketing of Petroleum Products; Gasoline Retail Operations -
Stage I; Underground Tank Breathing and Emptying
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Transportation and
Marketing of Petroleum Products; Consumer (Corporate) Fleet
Refueling - Stage I; Balanced Submerged Filling
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Transportation and
Marketing of Petroleum Products; Fugitive Emissions; Specify
in Comments Field
sec
40600233
40600236
40600238
40600240
40600242
40600302
40600306
40600399
40600707
40688802
Description
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Transportation and
Marketing of Petroleum Products; Marine Vessels; Gasoline:
Barge Loading - Cleaned and Vapor Free Tanks
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Transportation and
Marketing of Petroleum Products; Marine Vessels; Gasoline:
Ship Loading - Uncleaned Tanks
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Transportation and
Marketing of Petroleum Products; Marine Vessels; Gasoline:
Barges Loading - Uncleaned Tanks
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Transportation and
Marketing of Petroleum Products; Marine Vessels; Gasoline:
Barge Loading - Average Tank Condition
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Transportation and
Marketing of Petroleum Products; Marine Vessels; Gasoline:
Transit Loss
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Transportation and
Marketing of Petroleum Products; Gasoline Retail Operations
- Stage I; Submerged Filling w/o Controls
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Transportation and
Marketing of Petroleum Products; Gasoline Retail Operations
- Stage I; Balanced Submerged Filling
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Transportation and
Marketing of Petroleum Products; Gasoline Retail Operations
- Stage I; Not Classified **
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Transportation and
Marketing of Petroleum Products; Consumer (Corporate)
Fleet Refueling - Stage I; Underground Tank Breathing and
Emptying
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation; Transportation and
Marketing of Petroleum Products; Fugitive Emissions;
Specify in Comments Field
71
-------
To calculate the adjustment factors, the emissions of the SCC codes from Table 38 were summed
across the country for each HAP for the projected 2002 inventory and the 2002 draft NEI. The
HAP specific adjustment factor was then calculated as the ratio of the 2002 NEI emissions to the
2002 projected emissions.
The 2002 draft NEI emissions, 2002 projected emissions, and adjustment factors are shown in
Table 39.
Table 39. National gasoline distribution adjustment factors for each HAP.
HAP
2,2,4-trimethylpentane
Benzene
Ethyl benzene
Hexane
MTBE
Naphthalene
Toluene
Xylenes
2002 NEI
emissions
5,466.99
5,530.95
1,471.76
10,674.11
16,847.54
432.47
10,778.90
6,570.87
2002
projected
emissions
4,877.25
4,993.05
1,093.31
11,929.36
9,318.57
526.33
9,372.60
7,034.62
National
adjustment
factor
1.12092
1.10773
1.34615
0.89478
1.80795
0.82167
1.15004
0.93408
In addition to the factors in Table 39, additional nationwide adjustments of 0.36 and 0.0054,
respectively, were applied to emissions of benzene and naphthalene. The basis for these
adjustments is discussed in the Section 3.3.4.
4.3.2 Calculation of benzene controls
After adjusting the gasoline marketing and distribution emissions, controls were applied to
benzene gasoline distribution emissions. In the application of the benzene controls, SCC code
2501995120 was included in the list of SCC codes to be controlled.
Gasoline marketing and distribution emissions were estimated for the control scenario by
applying a county specific control ratio based on the change in average fuel benzene level for the
control and reference case. Average fuel benzene level for the control case was determined from
refinery modeling done for the proposed rule. As part of the refinery modeling, average fuel
properties for each Petroleum Administration for Defense District (PADD) under the new
standards were estimated. Average fuel benzene levels for conventional gasoline (CG) and
reformulated gasoline (RFG) in each PADD before and after implementation of the proposed
standards were used to develop multiplicative factors. These multiplicative factors were used as
control ratios for estimating the controlled gasoline marketing and distribution emissions.
The multiplicative factors (control ratios for gasoline marketing and distribution emissions) are
shown in Table 40. Although California is part of PADD5, it was treated separately since
California has its own reformulated gasoline program. PADD regions are shown in Figure 11.
72
-------
To apply the control ratios to the gasoline marketing and distribution SCCs, it was necessary to
distinguish between the counties in each PADD using RFG versus CG. Figure 12 shows which
counties are RFG counties.
PADD5
Figure 11. PADD regions for the U.S.
73
-------
Figure 12. RFG counties (dark gray) for the U.S.
Table 40. Change in Average Fuel Benzene Level (Volume Percent) by PADD with
Implementation of Proposed Fuel Benzene Standard (CG - Conventional Gasoline; RFG -
Reformulated Gasoline).
Reference Case
Control Case
Multiplicative
Factor
Gasoline
Type
CG
RFG
CG
RFG
CG
RFG
Region
PADD1
0.91 %
0.59%
0.55%
0.54%
0.60
0.92
PADD 2
1.26%
0.80%
0.68%
0.71%
0.54
0.89
PADD 3
0.95%
0.57%
0.54%
0.55%
0.57
0.96
PADD 4
1.47%
1.05%
0.93%
0.62%
0.63
0.59
PADD 5
1.42%
0.65%
0.85%
0.60%
0.60
0.92
Calif.
0.62%
0.62%
0.61%
0.61%
0.98
0.98
74
-------
4.3.3 Removal of vehicle refueling emissions
In addition to adjusting the gasoline marketing and distribution emissions and controlling the
benzene gasoline marketing and distribution emissions, emissions associated with vehicle
refueling were removed from the stationary inventories since they were now part of the onroad
inventories. Table 41 lists the SCC codes associated with vehicle refueling that were removed.
Table 41. Vehicle refueling SCC codes.
SCC
2501060000
2501060100
2501060101
2501060102
2501060103
40600401
40600402
40600403
40600499
40600601
40600602
40600603
Description
Storage and Transport, Petroleum and Petroleum Product Storage, Gasoline Service Stations,
Total: All Gasoline/ All Processes
Storage and Transport, Petroleum and Petroleum Product Storage, Gasoline Service Stations,
Stage 2: Total
Storage and Transport, Petroleum and Petroleum Product Storage, Gasoline Service Stations,
Stage 2: Displacement Loss/Uncontrolled
Storage and Transport, Petroleum and Petroleum Product Storage, Gasoline Service Stations,
Stage 2: Displacement Loss/Controlled
Storage and Transport, Petroleum and Petroleum Product Storage, Gasoline Service Stations,
Stage 2: Spillage
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation, Transportation and Marketing of Petroleum Products, Filling
Vehicle Gas Tanks - Stage II, Vapor Loss w/o Controls
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation, Transportation and Marketing of Petroleum Products, Filling
Vehicle Gas Tanks - Stage II, Liquid Spill Loss w/o Controls
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation, Transportation and Marketing of Petroleum Products, Filling
Vehicle Gas Tanks - Stage II, Vapor Loss w/o Controls
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation, Transportation and Marketing of Petroleum Products, Filling
Vehicle Gas Tanks - Stage II, Not Classified
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation, Transportation and Marketing of Petroleum Products,
Consumer (Corporate) Fleet Refueling - Stage II, Vapor Loss w/o Controls
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation, Transportation and Marketing of Petroleum Products,
Consumer (Corporate) Fleet Refueling - Stage II, Liquid Spill Loss w/o Controls
Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation, Transportation and Marketing of Petroleum Products,
Consumer (Corporate) Fleet Refueling - Stage II, Vapor Loss w/controls
75
-------
4.4 Application of growth and reductions to project stationary source emissions
For stationary sources, EMS-HAP was used to project the emissions with the lone exception of
Medical Waste Incinerator (MWI, MACT=1801) emissions which utilized draft 2002 MWI
emissions as advised by the MWI project lead. For this category, it was expected that emissions
would remain at 2002 levels into the future.
4.4.1 Point and airport nonpoint sources
For point sources, the PtTemporal output from the 1999 NATA EMS-HAP run was adjusted (via
a program called mwi.sas, which is available in the docket for this rule [EPA-HQ-OAR-2005-
0036] to change the 1999 medical waste incineration (MWI) emissions to 2002 emissions (U.S.
EPA, 2005d). The new emissions were then processed through PtGrowCntl, using the growth
and reduction factors described in Sections 3.3.5, 4.1 and 4.2, to project the inventory to 2015
and 2020
The substitution of the 2002 MWI emissions for the 1999 emissions resulted in a change from
727 tons to 31.5 tons.
Note that the aviation gasoline point sources were run separately through EMS-HAP, using the
aircraft growth factors as described in Section 3.2.
After projecting the emissions to 2015 and 2020, the gasoline distribution emissions were
adjusted and controlled for benzene and removal of any vehicle refueling emissions. Note that
gasoline distribution emissions were only adjusted for those HAPs listed in Table 39. The
general methodology in modifying the projected emissions was:
• For each of the years, the emissions were split into three subsets: gasoline distribution,
vehicle refueling, and other point sources, i.e. those that are not gasoline distribution or
vehicle refueling. The gasoline distribution emissions included the emissions of SCC
codes from Table 38. Vehicle refueling emissions were those of SCC codes from Table
41.
• For each of the HAPs shown in Table 39, applied the national adjustment factor to each
gasoline distribution emission source. For HAPs not listed in Table 39, the emissions
were not adjusted, i.e. an adjustment factor of 1.0 was applied to the emissions.
• After adjusting the gasoline distribution emissions, the adjusted emissions were
concatenated with the other point source emissions. Vehicle refueling emissions were
not appended to the new inventory.
Figure 13 shows the steps in adjusting the 1999 and projected inventories and Figure 14 shows
the development of the controlled adjusted inventories for 2015 and 2020.
76
-------
The inventories were then ready for input into EMS-HAP module PtFinal_ASPEN to create
ASPEN ready emissions files.
Airport nonpoint emissions consisted entirely of aviation gasoline distribution and were adjusted
in the same manner as the point sources and Figures 13 and 14 are valid for airport nonpoint
emissions. As with the point sources, the output of PtTemporal was used for 1999 and the output
of PtGrowCntl was used for 2015 and 2020. After adjustment of emissions, the inventories were
ready for input into PtFinal_ASPEN in order to create ASPEN ready emission files.
Point inventory
0
Split into gasoline
distribution, vehicle
refueling, other sources.
Vehicle refueling will
not be included in
stationary inventory for
final rule.
vehicle refueling
gas distribution
other sources
I
Adjust distribution
emissions using
adjustment factors based
on 2002 draft NEI and
2002 projected
inventories
Adjusted point inventory
Concatenate and sort by
PIPS/SITE ID/EMRELPID/SCC/CAS
adjusted gas distribution
Figure 13. Steps in adjustment of 1999 and 2015 and 2020 projected point and airport nonpoint
inventories.
77
-------
List of counties and
whether RFG county
©[
: Assign an RFG status. RFG if
^ RFG county, Non-RFG is non-
! RFG county
„ , , ,,, " I ^1 Sort by FIPS, eliminating
Dataset of tracts ~
1 !
duplicates, with one entry per
county. Retain FIPS, and state
Apply ratios to
benzene gasoline
distribution
emissions
Adjusted point inventory
with factors
counties with
PADD region and
RFG status
Controlled point inventory
Figure 14. Steps in used in developing controlled 2015 and 2020 point and airport nonpoint
inventories.
4.4.2 Nonpoint sources
The adjustments of the nonpoint sources were more complex than the point sources. This is
because the nonpoint sources would include the PFC emissions as well. For the nonpoint
inventories the approach was to modify the gasoline distribution emissions and vehicle refueling
emissions before projection, i.e. the 1999 emissions, because the EMS-HAP module CountyProc,
which projects the emissions, also creates the ASPEN ready files. There was no intermediate
step as in the point processing to allow for modification of emissions. Emissions had to be
modified before input into EMS-HAP. Since the PFC emissions were already projected to 2015,
2020, and 2030, the pre-CountyProc inventories for 2015, 2020, and 2030 would consist of 1999
emissions for all sources except the PFC, which would already be the year specific emissions.
Additionally, there were no growth factors in the growth factor files for the PFC emissions, so
they would remain unchanged. Following is the methodology in creating the pre-EMS-HAP
inventories for 2015, 2020, and 2030:
78
-------
• From the 1999 NEI nonpoint inventory, reduced the emissions to MS AT HAPs, and
adjusted the gasoline distribution emissions as done for the point sources. Also, benzene
controls were applied to the gasoline distribution emissions.
• Removed vehicle refueling emissions
• As with point sources, the MWI emissions were modified. There were no non-point
MWI emissions in 2002, so the 1999 MWI emissions were set to zero.
• For the reference case inventories for 2015, 2020, or 2030, appended the county level
base PFC emissions (no PFC or benzene fuel controls) to the 1999 modified emissions.
• For the control case inventories, appended the county level controlled PFC emissions
(PFC controls and benzene fuel controls) to the 1999 modified inventories
For 1999 processing for 1999 ASPEN modeling, the following steps were taken:
• From the 1999 NEI nonpoint inventory, reduced the emissions to MS AT HAPs, and
adjusted the gasoline distribution emissions as done for the point sources.
• Removed vehicle refueling emissions
• MWI emissions were not changed to zero. They were left unchanged.
• Appended the county level base 1999 PFC emissions (no PFC or benzene fuel controls)
to the 1999 modified emissions.
Figure 15 shows the adjustment of the 1999 inventories with and without MWI emissions and
Figure 16 shows the development of the controlled inventories for projection for 2015, 2020, and
2030.
79
-------
Subset to MSATHAPs
and split into gasoline
distribution, vehicle
refueling, other sources.
Vehicle refueling will
not be included in
stationary inventory for
final rule.
Adjust distribution
emissions using
adjustment factors based
on 2002 draft NEI and
2002 projected
inventories
Adjusted 1999 nonpoint inventory
Concatenate and sort by
FIPS/SCC/CAS
Concatenate and sort by
FIPS/SCC/CAS
a
Adjusted 1999 nonpoint inventory
with 1999 PFC emissions
Subset to MSATHAPs
and split into gasoline
distribution, vehicle
refueling, other sources.
Vehicle refueling will
not be included in
stationary inventory for
final rule.
Adjust distribution
emissions using
adjustment factors based
on 2002 draft NEI and
2002 projected
inventories
Adjusted 1999 nonpoint inventory for
future years
Concatenate and sort by
FIPS//SCC/CAS
Figure 15. Adjustment of: a) 1999 nonpoint inventory with MWI emissions included and b)
1999 nonpoint inventory without MWI emissions for projection to 2015, 2020, and 2030.
80
-------
',
; Assign an RFG statins RFG if
List ol counties ana ! G
1 1 i RF G county
(2)
i Sort bv FTPS, eliminating Assisn a ^
Dataset of tracts | — ^i duplicates, with one entry per ' > counties — ^ PADD region
! county. Retain F IPS, ana state based on state
1
counties ^! Meige 1
inventory for future years
i
1 T 1-1 • •
Future year PFC f — •; Adjusted 1999 nonpoint inventory counties \
emissions * Concatenate ;— * with future year pFC emissions PADD re
jyFIPS i
r
vith
gion and
©| RF'G status
W 1
^-^ ' — "I
Merge b
County ratios * ' PADD r
, , and RFG
r
y
3gion
r status
^ Apply ratios to benzene Adjusted inventory with © f
i ' gasoline distribution f* fnrtnrr-
with rai
regions
ios by
_^ Controlled 1999 nonpoint RFG status
inventory ready for projection
Figure 16. Development of nonpoint base and controlled inventories for projection for 2015,
2020, and 2030.
Once the inventories were created, they were ready for input into CountyProc, which would
project the emissions using the growth and reduction factors described in Sections 3.3.4, 4.1 and
4.2, to project the inventory to 2015, and 2020, and 2030. The PFC SCC codes were not in any
growth or reduction factor files, so they would remain unchanged and at their already projected
levels. CountyProc would also speciate, temporally allocate, and spatially allocate the county-
level emissions and create ASPEN ready files.
A summary of the gasoline distribution and vehicle refueling adjustments can be found in Tables
42 and 43 respectively.
81
-------
Table 42. 1999, 2015, and 2020, pre-adjusted, adjusted, and controlled adjusted gasoline distribution emissions.
HAP
2,2,4-Trimethylpentane
Benzene
Ethyl Benzene
Hexane
MTBE
Naphthalene
Toluene
Xylenes
Year
1999
Pre-adjusted
4.88xl03
4.97xl03
1.07xl03
1.20xl04
9.37xl03
2.81x10°
9.30xl03
6.91xl03
Adjusted
5.47xl03
1.98xl03
1.44xl03
1.07xl04
1.69xl04
2.31x10°
1.07xl04
6.45xl03
2015
Pre-adjusted
5.34xl03
5.42xl03
1.27xl03
1.26xl04
l.OOxlO4
3.10x10°
1.02xl04
7.97xl03
Adjusted
5.98xl03
2.16xl03
1.71xl03
1.13xl04
l.SlxlO4
2.55x10°
LlSxlO4
7.45xl03
Controlled
5.98xl03
1.46xl03
1.71xl03
1.13xl04
l.SlxlO4
2.55x10°
LlSxlO4
7.45xl03
2020
Pre-adjusted
5.51xl03
5.60xl03
1.36xl03
1.30xl04
l.OSxlO4
3.21x10°
1.06xl04
8.43xl03
Adjusted
6.17xl03
2.23xl03
1.82xl03
1.16xl04
1.85xl04
2.64x10°
1.22xl04
7.87xl03
Controlled
6.17xl03
1.52xl03
1.82xl03
1.16xl04
1.85xl04
2.64x10°
1.22xl04
7.87xl03
Table 43. Vehicle refueling emissions removed from stationary inventories.
HAP
1,3 -Butadiene
2,2,4-Trimethylpentane
Benzene
Ethyl Benzene
Hexane
MTBE
Naphthalene
POM
Styrene
Year
1999
Major
0.00x10°
2.00X10'1
4.51X10'1
9.37xlO'2
5.02X10'1
3.31x10°
2.00xlO'3
0.00x10°
0.00x10°
Area&
Other
3.05x10°
1.97xl03
1.57xl03
4.69xl02
3.52xl03
5.38xl03
1.86xl02
4.71X101
3.46X101
Total
3.05x10°
1.97xl03
1.57xl03
4.69xl02
3.52xl03
5.38xl03
1.86xl02
4.71X101
3.46X101
2015
Major
0.00x10°
S.OSxlO'1
6.73X10'1
1.42X10'1
7.53X10'1
5.02x10°
2.18xlO'3
0.00x10°
0.00x10°
Area&
Other
1.18x10°
l.OOxlO3
7.24xl02
2.89xl02
1.35xl03
3.22xl03
7.88X101
2.58X101
1.32X101
Total
1.18x10°
l.OOxlO3
7.24xl02
2.89xl02
1.36xl03
3.22xl03
7.88X101
2.58X101
1.32X101
2020
Major
0.00x10°
3.33X10'1
7.53X10'1
1.56X10'1
8.27X10'1
5.48x10°
2.28xlO'3
0.00x10°
0.00x10°
Area&
Other
1.12x10°
l.OlxlO3
7.19xl02
S.OlxlO2
1.29xl03
3.34xl03
7.70X101
2.63X101
1.26X101
Total
1.12x10°
l.OlxlO3
7.20xl02
S.OlxlO2
1.29xl03
3.34xl03
7.70X101
2.63X101
1.26X101
82
-------
Figure 17 shows the base and controlled stationary and mobile emissions after all emissions
processing, prior to EMS-HAP. The nonroad emissions include the PFC emissions.
a
1999 2015 2015 2020
Base Base Control Base
2020 2030 2030
Control Base Control
400
D Major
DArea& other
D Nonroad
• Onroad
1999 2015 2015 2020 2020 2030 2030
Base Base Control Base Control Base Control
Figure 17. Major, area & other, nonroad and onroad emissions for 1999, 2015, 2020, and 2030
for base and controlled inventories for a) sum of all HAPs, and b) benzene only.
83
-------
This page intentionally blank
84
-------
5. EMS-HAP Processing for HAPs
Prior to conducting air quality modeling using the ASPEN model, the emissions were processed
in the Emissions Modeling System for Hazardous Air Pollutants (EMS-HAP) Version 3 (U.S.
EPA, 2004b). EMS-HAP creates the emissions input files that are used by ASPEN to calculate
the air quality concentrations. Following are brief descriptions of the EMS-HAP processing.
The reader is referred to the EMS-HAP User's Guide (U.S. EPA, 2004b) for more details.
5.1 Spatial surrogates and temporal factors for PFC SCC codes
As a new addition to the inventories, the PFC SCC codes needed temporal profiles and spatial
surrogate assignments in order to allocate the county-level annual emissions to eight 3-hour time
blocks and census tracts. For the temporal profiles, temporal profiles of nonroad gasoline
equipment were used, as the fuel containers would be used to fuel the equipment and refueling
would take place at the same times as when the equipment was being used. Also, equipment
refueling accounted for over 60% of MS AT emissions from PFCs. The nonroad SCC codes all
had the same profile, so the same profile was assigned to each of the PFC SCC codes.
The temporal profile for the PFC SCC codes is shown in Figure 18.
0.1
0.09
0.08
0.07
0.06
0.05
cs
0>
H
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Hour
Figure 18. Temporal profile assigned to PFC SCC codes.
85
-------
Table 44 lists the PFC SCC codes with the spatial surrogate assignments. Residential SCC codes
for permeation, evaporation, and refueling were assigned the single family dwelling surrogate.
The spillage during transport SCC codes (residential and commercial) were assigned total road
miles as the surrogate since the spillage would occur while the containers were transported on
the roads. Refilling at the pump SCC codes (residential and commercial) were assigned the
gasoline station surrogates. Other commercial SCC codes were assigned the golf courses plus
commercial, industrial, and institutional area surrogate.
Table 44. PFC SCC codes and assigned surrogates.
SCC
2501011011
2501011012
2501011013
2501011014
2501011015
2501011016
2501011017
2501012011
2501012012
2501012013
2501012014
2501012015
2501012016
2501012017
Description
Residential Portable Fuel Containers:
Permeation
Residential Portable Fuel Containers:
Evaporation
Residential Portable Fuel Containers:
Spillage During Transport
Residential Portable Fuel Containers:
Refilling at the Pump: Vapor
Displacement
Residential Portable Fuel Containers:
Refilling at the Pump: Spillage
Residential Portable Fuel Containers:
Refueling Equipment: Vapor
Displacement
Residential Portable Fuel Containers:
Refueling Equipment: Spillage
Commercial Portable Fuel
Containers: Permeation
Commercial Portable Fuel
Containers: Evaporation
Commercial Portable Fuel
Containers: Spillage During
Transport
Commercial Portable Fuel
Containers: Refilling at the Pump:
Vapor Displacement
Commercial Portable Fuel
Containers: Refilling at the Pump:
Spillage
Commercial Portable Fuel
Containers: Refueling Equipment:
Vapor Displacement
Commercial Portable Fuel
Containers: Refueling Equipment:
Spillage
Surrogate
Single family dwelling
Single family dwelling
Total road miles
Gasoline stations
Gasoline stations
Single family dwelling
Single family dwelling
golf courses + commercial + industrial + institutional area
golf courses + commercial + industrial + institutional area
Total road miles
Gasoline stations
Gasoline stations
golf courses + commercial + industrial + institutional area
golf courses + commercial + industrial + institutional area
86
-------
5.2 Inventory scenarios
For the years 2015, 2020 and 2030, there were two basic scenarios for each inventory to model,
the base inventory and the control inventory, which included cumulative impacts of all controls
being finalized in this rule. The exception to this is 1999, which is base case only. Table 45
summarizes the base and control inventories to model for point, nonpoint, onroad, and the
nonroad inventories.
Table 45. Emission scenarios to be processed in EMS-HAP and ASPEN. Base inventory
applies to all years and control inventory applies to 2015, 2020, and 2030.
Inventory
Point
Nonpoint
Onroad
Nonroad
Base inventory
Adjusted gasoline distribution; no vehicle refueling; other
sources unchanged.
Adjusted gasoline distribution, including aviation
gasoline; no vehicle refueling; PFC emissions with no
PFC controls or benzene fuel controls; other sources
unchanged
Base NMIM emissions for onroad gasoline and onroad
diesel with vehicle refueling added to light duty gasoline
vehicles
Projected diesel locomotive, commercial marine vessel,
and aircraft emissions1 ; NMIM emissions with subtracted
PFC refueling emissions for nonroad gasoline; diesel
emissions
Control inventory
Base inventory with benzene controls
applied to gasoline distribution
emissions
Base inventory with benzene controls
applied to gasoline distribution
emissions and PFC and benzene fuel
controls applied to PFC emissions
Fuel and vehicle controls applied to
gasoline engine emissions, diesel
emissions same as base inventory
Controls applied to nonroad gasoline
emissions, all other emissions
unchanged.
1 For 1999, diesel locomotive, commercial marine vessel, and aircraft emissions are the same as those used in
NATA.
5.3 Point sources
Point sources (including major and area sources) are processed through four EMS-HAP
programs to create ASPEN ready files: PtDataProc, PtModelProc, PtTemporal, and
PtFinal_ASPEN. A fifth point source program, PtGrowCntl is used to apply growth factors and
reduction information to a base year inventory to develop future year emissions inventories.
This program is run between PtTemporal and PtFinal_ASPEN.
For the MSAT study, the point inventory had already been processed through PtDataProc,
PtModelProc and PtTemporal for the 1999 National Air Toxics Assessment (NATA).
Geographic locations and stack parameters' quality assurance was done in PtDataProc. See Ch.
3, EMS-HAP User's Guide for details.
In PtModelProc, the individual POM HAPs were grouped into eight POM groups, based on
cancer risk (See Section C.4.2 in Appendix C of the EMS-HAP User's Guide for POM
groupings). Also in PtModelProc, the metals (chromium, nickel, and manganese) were split into
fine and coarse particle emissions. Also, unspeciated chromium was speciated into chromium III
and chromium VI based on MACT codes. For naphthalene, emissions were split into gaseous
and particle mode. For descriptions of these two processes see Ch. 4, EMS-HAP User's Guide.
87
-------
Urban/rural dispersion parameters, vent type, and building parameters were also assigned in
PtModelProc.
PtTemporal allocated the annual emissions to eight 3-hour time blocks based on the category of
the emissions. PtTemporal output was adjusted to change the 1999 medical waste incineration
(MWI) emissions to 2002 emissions (see Section 4.3) which were used as the projected MWI
emissions for all future years.
As discussed in Section 4.4.1, PtGrowCntl was run to project the inventory to 2015 and 2020.
For 2015 and 2020, the PtGrowCntl output was subset to MS AT HAPs, the output adjusted for
gasoline distribution and vehicle refueling, and then processed through PtFinal_ASPEN to create
ASPEN ready emissions files (including reactivity/particle size information) for the base and
controlled point inventories. EMS-HAP also allows for grouping of the emissions so that the
contribution of different source groups can be quantified when calculating concentrations in
ASPEN. As for the 1999 NAT A, the point sources were binned into two groups, major
(group=0) and area & other sources (group=l). Source groupings for stationary and mobile
sources can be seen in Table 46.
5.4 Nonpoint sources
For the 1999 NAT A, the non-point emissions inventory was first processed through the EMS-
HAP COP AX program to separate the airport related emissions from other non-point emissions
(see Table 14 for airport related SCC codes). COP AX allocated the airport related emissions to
point source locations at the airports (See Ch. 2 in the EMS-HAP User's Guide). The airport
related emissions were then processed through the same programs as the point source inventory.
The growth factors used for PtGrowCntl are documented in Section 3.2.
For the remaining non-point inventory for 1999, the gasoline distribution emissions were
adjusted and vehicle refueling emissions were removed. The 1999 inventory was then processed
through CountyProc to create the ASPEN ready files. CountyProc spatially allocated county
level emissions to census tracts, temporally allocated emissions to 3-hour time blocks, assigned
urban/rural dispersion parameters, assigned reactivity classes/particle size information for
ASPEN, and grouped certain pollutants together such as the POM groups, and metals (See Ch. 9
of EMS-HAP User's Guide).
For the remaining non-point inventory, after removing the MWI (MACT=1801) emissions and
performing the other adjustments discussed in Section 4.4.2, the emissions were projected to
2015, 2020, and 2030 using the EMS-HAP program CountyProc. This program also spatially
allocated county level emissions to census tracts, temporally allocated emissions to 3-hour time
blocks, assigned urban/rural dispersion parameters, assigned reactivity classes/particle size
information for ASPEN, and grouped certain pollutants together such as the POM groups, and
metals as done for 1999.
For the non-point airport related emissions, the emissions were grouped into area & other
sources (group=l). For the remaining nonpoint sources, the PFC emissions were grouped into
88
-------
the non-gasoline nonroad emissions (group=3). The remaining nonpoint emissions were
grouped into the area & other sources (group=l).
5.5 Onroad sources
The emission inventories for 2015, 2020, and 2030 were projected outside of EMS-HAP using
the methodology in Section 3.3.3. Therefore, EMS-HAP was only used to create the ASPEN
ready files. For the onroad inventory, the CountyProc program was used to create the ASPEN
ready files. As with the non-point inventory, CountyProc spatially allocated county level
emissions to census tracts, temporally allocated emissions to 3-hour time blocks, assigned
urban/rural dispersion parameters, assigned reactivity classes/particle size information for
ASPEN, and grouped certain pollutants together such as the POM groups, and metals (See Ch. 9
of EMS-HAP User's Guide for details). Onroad emissions were grouped into two onroad
groups: onroad gasoline emissions (group=2) and onroad diesel emissions (group=4). SCC
codes beginning with 2201 were assigned to group 2 and SCC codes beginning with 2230 were
assigned to group 4.
5.6 Nonroad sources
5.6.1 Aircraft sources
Aircraft emissions had been previously extracted from the 1999 inventory for NATA using
COP AX in order to be modeled in ASPEN as point sources and processed as discussed in
Section 3.2. The projected aircraft emissions were processed in PtFinal_ASPEN to create
ASPEN ready files. Aircraft emissions, SCC codes beginning with 2275, were grouped into
non-gasoline nonroad emissions (group=3).
5.6.2 Airport Support Equipment
The projected nonroad inventories discussed in Section 3.3.3 contained emissions related to
airport support equipment. Therefore, the projected nonroad inventories were processed through
COP AX to separate the airport related emissions from the remaining nonroad emissions. See
Table 14 for airport support equipment SCC codes (those denoted as being projected in NMEVI).
After the COP AX program, the airport support equipment emissions were processed through the
point source programs PtDataProc, PtModelProc, PtTemporal, and PtFinal_ASPEN. Note that
unlike the non-point airport emissions and aircraft emissions, the airport support equipment
emissions were not processed through the PtGrowCntl program since emissions had already been
projected outside of EMS-HAP.
5.6.3 Remaining nonroad sources
The remaining nonroad emissions were processed through CountyProc in a similar fashion to the
onroad emissions. Both airport support equipment emissions and remaining nonroad emissions
were binned into two groups, non-gasoline nonroad emissions (group=3) and nonroad gasoline
(group=5) (Table 30).
89
-------
Table 46. ASPEN emission groups4
Group
0
1
2
3
4
5
Source Sector
Major sources
Area & other sources
Onroad gasoline sources
Non-gasoline nonroad
sources
Onroad diesel sources
Nonroad gasoline
sources
Description
Any stationary source or group of stationary
sources located within a contiguous area and
under common control that emits or has the
potential to emit considering controls, in the
aggregate, 10 tons per year or more of any
hazardous air pollutant or 25 tons per year or
more of any combination of hazardous air
pollutants
Any stationary source of hazardous air
pollutants that is not a major source. Does not
include motor vehicles or nonroad vehicles.
Onroad vehicles burning gasoline
Nonroad vehicles burning fuels other than
gasoline such as diesel, natural gas, aviation
fuel, LP gas, residual oils, and miscellaneous
fuel sources; PFC emissions
Onroad vehicles burning diesel
Nonroad vehicles burning gasoline
Inventories*
Point
Point, and
non-point
Onroad
Nonroad,
non-point
Onroad
Nonroad
Non-point and nonroad include airport related emissions.
During ASPEN post-processing and subsequent exposure modeling and risk assessments, onroad diesel and onroad
gasoline were summed into total onroad and nonroad gasoline and other nonroad were grouped into total nonroad.
The groupings shown in the table are carried over from the modeling for the proposed rule.
90
-------
6. ASPEN Processing
6.1 ASPEN modeling
Once the emissions were processed, they were input into ASPEN (U.S. EPA, 2000) to calculate
ambient air quality concentrations. In addition to the emissions, ASPEN needs meteorological
parameters, and census tract centroid locations for concentration calculations. For the MSAT
years, 2015, 2020, and 2030, the 1999 meteorology and year 2000 census tract locations were
used as for the 1999 NATA.
In EMS-HAP, emissions are divided into nine files, one for each HAP reactivity class, 1-9, as
defined for ASPEN (Reactivity classes 6 and 8 are not used for HAPs) based on decay rates or
particulate sizes (See ASPEN User's Guide [U.S. EPA, 2000] for details). For example, the
emissions file for reactivity class 1 would contain the emissions information (location, emissions,
stack parameters, etc.) for all of the HAPs processed through EMS-HAP with reactivity class 1.
The reactivity classes for each MSAT HAP are listed in Table 47.
91
-------
Table 47. Reactivity classes for MSAT HAPs and precursors.
Pollutant
SAROAD Reactivity
Pollutant
SAROAD
Reactivity
1,3-Butadiene
43218
Naphthalene, fine PM
46702
2,2,4-Trimethylpentane
43250
Nickel, fine
80216
Acetaldehyde, primary
43503
Nickel, coarse
80316
Acrolein, primary
43505
Propionaldehyde, primary
43505
Benzene
45201
Styrene
45220
Chromium III, fine
59992
Toluene
45202
Chromium III, coarse
59993
Xylenes
45102
Chromium VI, fine
69992
POM1
71002
Chromium VI, coarse
69993
POM 2
72002
Ethyl Benzene
45203
POM 3
73002
Formaldehyde, primary
43502
POM 4
74002
Hexane
43231
POMS
75002
Manganese, fine
80196
POM 6
76002
Manganese, coarse
80396
POM 7
77002
MTBE
43376
1
POMS
78002
Naphthalene, gas
46701
Acrolein precursor, inert
80302
POM1:
POM 2:
POMS:
POM 4:
POM 5:
POM 6:
POM 7:
POMS:
POM, Group 1:
POM, Group 2:
POM, GroupS:
POM, Group 4:
POM, Group 5:
POM, Group 6:
POM, Group 7:
POM, Group 8:
Unspeciated
no URE data
5.0E-2
-------
Onroad reactivity 1
input file
Remaining nonroad
reactivity 1
input file
Point reactivity 1
input file
Non-point
i
r
Aircraft reactivity 1
input file
Airport support
reactivity 1
input file
Non-point reactivity
1 input file
airport
reactivity 1
input file
ASPEN
Figure 19. Reactivity class 1 ASPEN inputs and outputs. Output is the final output from
ASPENA and ASPENB.
93
-------
Onroad reactivity 2
input file
Remaining nonroad reactivity 2
input file
Point reactivity 2 input file
Non-point airport
reactivity 2
input file
l ASPEN !
Aircraft reactivity 2
input file
Airport support reactivity 2
input file
Non-point reactivity 2 input file
/i^7no ^»vi-*
ito/uz.exp
^QQQO aw\
jyyyz.exp
£QQQO ^»vr^
oyyyz.exp
71 MMO ^»vi-»
/ luuz.exp
70 nm ovi-.
/zuuz.exp
77MMO ^»vi-»
/juuz.exp
^
^
^
^
^
^
^
^
^
^
^
p
^
^
p
^
^
p
^
7/1 nno ^»vi-*
/'tuuz.exp
-7cnnT „„„
/juuz.exp
7^nno ^»vi-*
/ouuz.exp
77nm a^»^
/ /uuz.exp
7cnno ^»vi-*
/ouuz.exp
oni n/r a^,-.
ouiyo.exp
ono 1 ^r ^»v«
ouzio.exp
Figure 20. Reactivity class 2 ASPEN inputs and outputs. Output is the final output from
ASPENA and ASPENB.
94
-------
Onroad reactivity 3
input file
Aircraft reactivity 3
input file
Remaining nonroad
reactivity 3
input file
Airport support
reactivity 3
input file
Point reactivity 3 input
file
Non-point airport
reactivity 3
input file
Non-point reactivity 3
input file
59993.exp
69993.exp
ASPEN I
80316.exp
45 202. exp
A
1
L
r
— i /
i
r
45 203 .exp
ASPEN rt
80396.exp
Onroad reactivity 4
input file
Aircraft reactivity 4
input file
Remaining nonroad
reactivity 4
input file
Airport support
reactivity 4
input file
Point reactivity 4 input
file
Non-point airport
reactivity 4
input file
Non-point reactivity 4
input file
Figure 21. Reactivity classes 3 and 4 ASPEN inputs and outputs. Output is the final output
from ASPENA and ASPENB.
Onroad reactivity 5
input file
Aircraft reactivity 5
input file
Remaining nonroad
reactivity 5
input file
Airport support
reactivity 5
input file
Point reactivity 5 input
file
Non-point airport
reactivity 5
input file
Non-point reactivity 5
input file
43218.exp
j
i
L
r
— i j-
\
r
45220.exp
ASPEN H
Onroad reactivity 7
input file
Aircraft reactivity 7
input file
Remaining nonroad
reactivity 7
input file
Airport support
reactivity 7
input file
Point reactivity 7 input
file
Non-point airport
reactivity 7
input file
Non-point reactivity 7
input file
Figure 22. Reactivity classes 5 and 7 ASPEN inputs and outputs. Output is the final output
from ASPENA and ASPENB.
95
-------
Onroad reactivity 9
input file
Remaining nonroad
reactivity 9
input file
Point reactivity 9
input file
Non-point
i
Aircraft reactivity 9
input file
Airport support
reactivity 9
input file
r
Non-point reactivity
9 input file
airport
reactivity 9
input file
! ASPEN
Figure 23. Reactivity class 9 ASPEN inputs and outputs. Output is the final output from
ASPENA and ASPENB.
6.2 Post-processing of ASPEN concentrations
ASPEN output concentrations were calculated for each SAROAD associated with the MSAT
HAPs (see Table 1 for SAROADs). Post-processing of the ASPEN concentrations for each year
included the following:
• Adjusted the SAROAD 75002 (POM Group 5) area & other concentrations in Oregon as
described in Section 2.1.
• Summed the fine and coarse metal concentrations (i.e., fine and coarse nickel) at census
tract level for each source sector.
96
-------
• Summed the particle and gas modes of naphthalene at census tract level for each source
category.
• Summed onroad gasoline and onroad diesel to total onroad and summed the nonroad
gasoline and other nonroad concentrations to total nonroad.
• Added county level background concentrations to total concentrations (all sources) for
HAP s with background. The MSAT HAPs with nonzero background were: 1,3-
butadiene, acetaldehyde, benzene, formaldehyde, and xylenes. Each of the three model
years used 1999 background. For details about the 1999 background see
http://www.epa.gov/ttn/atw/natal999/background.html or Battelle (2003).
• Calculated secondary contributions for acetaldehyde, acrolein, formaldehyde, and
propionaldehyde. The methodology is detailed in Section 6.2.1.
6.2.1 Secondary contributions
Four HAPs, acetaldehyde, acrolein, formaldehyde, and propionaldehyde needed secondary
concentrations added to the modeled concentrations. Two different strategies were used. For
acrolein, the precursor pollutants were inert and reactive 1,3 -butadiene, an MSAT HAP.
Therefore, acrolein's precursors were already projected to the future years. The secondary
contribution for acrolein for each source category was calculated as the difference between the
inert and reactive components added to the primary modeled concentration at each. Before the
difference could be calculated, the inert and react components were multiplied by 1.04 which
was a correction factor as used for the 1996 NAT A (U.S. EPA, 2002b) and 1999 NATA (U.S.
EPA, 2006a). The equation to calculate the secondary contributions was:
Xflcrofe!n = X43505 +1.04(X80302 -X43218) (19)
where X43sos was the primary modeled acrolein concentration, X80302 was the modeled inert 1,3-
butadiene concentration, X43218 was the modeled reactive 1,3-butadiene concentration, and
ein was the secondarily formed acrolein concentration.
For the other secondary pollutants, acetaldehyde, formaldehyde, and propionaldehyde, the 1999
secondary concentrations for the 1999 NATA were used for the major and area & other source
sectors. Stationary precursors were not projected due to the small contribution of stationary
secondary contributions to the total concentrations for acetaldehyde and formaldehyde. An
analysis of the secondary contributions of the 1999 NATA precursor concentrations for
acetaldehyde and formaldehyde revealed that stationary secondary contributions were small
when compared to the total concentrations (secondary and background included). Figure 24
shows box and whisker plots for acetaldehyde and formaldehyde for ratios of tract level
stationary secondary concentrations to total concentrations (white boxes) and ratios of tract level
mobile secondary concentrations to total concentrations (gray boxes) for 1999. The ratios for
the stationary secondary contributions are much less than the mobile ratios, since acetaldehyde
and formaldehyde are mobile dominant. Note that even though propionaldehyde is an MSAT
97
-------
HAP, it has no cancer or non-cancer risks associated with it and was not included in the analysis
of the secondary concentrations.
10
Ratios of stationary and mobile secondary contributions to total concentration
10
o
••5
tr
10
-3
10
95th percentile
75th percentile
Median
25th percentile
5th percentile
Acetaldehyde
Formaldehyde
Figure 24. Box and whisker plots of ratios of stationary secondary contributions to total
concentrations (white boxes) and ratios of mobile secondary contributions to total concentrations
(gray boxes) for 1999 acetaldehyde and formaldehyde concentrations. Dots represent the
national mean ratios.
For the mobile sources, which have a larger contribution to overall concentration for the
secondary HAPs, the ratio of the 1999 secondary to primary concentrations were used to
calculate secondary contributions for the projected concentrations. The calculation is:
X
HAP,SRC
Y y
yv HAP,SRC .PRIMARY A
- SRC .SECONDARY ,1999
V
HAP , SRC .PRIMARY ,1999 >
HAP, SRC .PRIMARY
(20)
where XHAP,SRC was the secondarily formed concentration for SRC (major, area & other, onroad,
or nonroad), for HAP (formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, or propionaldehyde) for one of the modeling
years (1999, 2015, 2020, or 2030), XHAP,SRC,PRIMARY was the primary or directly emitted and
modeled concentration for the HAP, XHAP,SRC,SECONDARY,1999 was the secondary contribution for
98
-------
the HAP and SRC for 1999, and XHAp,sRc,pRiMARY,i999 was the directly emitted and modeled
concentration for the HAP,SRC for 1999.
In the proposed MSAT rule, the secondarily formed concentrations for acetaldehyde,
formaldehyde, and propionaldehyde were calculated using the following equations:
-^ acetaldehyde ~ ^ 43503 + ^ 80301 ~ ^ 80100
-^ formaldehyde ~ ^ 43502 ~*~ ^ 80303 ~ ^ 80180
^ propionaldehyde ~ ^ 43504 + ^ 80305 ~ ^ 80234 \^)
Where:
Xacetaidehyde = Acetaldehyde concentrations with secondary contributions included.
X43503 = Primary acetaldehyde concentrations due to directly emitted acetaldehyde.
X80301 = Inert precursor concentrations for acetaldehyde (reactivity class 1).
Xgoioo = Reactive precursor concentrations for acetaldehyde (reactivity class 7).
Xformaidehyde = Formaldehyde concentrations with secondary contributions included.
X43502 = Primary formaldehyde concentrations due to directly emitted formaldehyde.
X80303 = Inert precursor concentrations for formaldehyde (reactivity class 1).
= Reactive precursor concentrations for formaldehyde (reactivity class 6).
naidehyde = Propionaldehyde concentrations with secondary contributions included.
= Primary propionaldehyde concentrations due to directly emitted
propi onal dehy de.
X80305 = Inert precursor concentrations for propionaldehyde (reactivity class 1).
X80234 = Reactive precursor concentrations for propionaldehyde (reactivity class 6).
To ensure the ratio method shown in Equation 20 would be acceptable, the secondary
concentrations for the proposed MSAT rule concentrations were calculated using Equation 20
and Equations 24 through 26 for 2015, 2020, and 2030 for onroad and nonroad sources. Figures
25 and 26 show the results of the comparisons. From the results, it appeared that the ratio
approach would be adequate for the secondary concentrations since the differences were not
large between the two methods.
99
-------
10°
95th Percentile i
a 7"
25th Percentile U
5th Percentile '
"1
f»-
U
i
-------
Nonroad Mobile Source Concentrations for Acetaldehyde
a
95th Percentile
75th Percentlte
Medianj
25th Percentil
5th Percentile
b
95th Percentile
75th Percentil
Medianj
25th PercentlJ
5th Percentile
Nonroad Mobile Source Concentrations for Formaldehyde
Nonroad Mobile Source Concentrations for Propionaldehyde
Figure 26. Secondary nonroad concentrations calculated from modeled precursors (white boxes)
and calculated from 1999 ratios of secondary to primary modeled concentrations (gray boxes) for
2015, 2020, and 2030 for a) acetaldehyde, b) formaldehyde, and c) propionaldehyde.
101
-------
After post-processing of the concentrations, summary statistics for the concentrations for each
year, including 1999 were calculated for base and controlled concentrations. They included:
• Average concentrations for major, area & other, total onroad, total nonroad background,
and total at the county, state, state urban/rural, state RFG/non-RFG, national, national
urban/rural, and national RFG/non-RFG levels.
• Distributions (5th, 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 90th, and 95th percentiles) for total concentrations
at the county, state, state urban/rural, state RFG/non-RFG levels.
• Maps of county median concentrations for 1,3-butadiene, acetaldehyde, acrolein,
benzene, formaldehyde, and naphthalene were generated for 1999, 2015, 2020, and 2030.
Tables 48 and 49 list the national average concentrations for selected HAPs for base and control
strategies
102
-------
-3\
Table 48. Base background and ASPEN stationary and mobile concentrations (ng m ) for 1999, 2015, 2020, and 2030.
HAP
1,3 -Butadiene
2,2,4-Trimethylpentane
Acetaldehyde
Acrolein
Benzene
Chromium III
Chromium VI
Ethyl Benzene
Formaldehyde
Hexane
MTBE
Manganese
Naphthalene
Nickel
POM
Propionaldehyde
Styrene
Toluene
Xylenes
Background
S.lOxlO-2
0.00x10°
5.17X10'1
0.00x10°
3.94X10'1
0.00x10°
0.00x10°
0.00x10°
7.62X10'1
0.00x10°
0.00x10°
0.00x10°
0.00x10°
0.00x10°
0.00x10°
0.00x10°
0.00x10°
0.00x10°
LVOxlQ-1
19<
Stationary
2.24xlQ-2
4.49xlQ-2
8.43xlQ-2
3.25xlQ-2
1.62X10'1
1.28xlO-3
3.06xlQ-4
l.OSxlQ-1
1.28X10'1
4.97X10'1
7.35xlQ-2
4.92xlQ-3
4.57xlQ-2
2.19xlQ-3
2.11xlO-2
3.34xlQ-2
3.92xlQ-2
1.01x10°
6.59X10'1
)9
Mobile
7.01xlO-2
9.25X10'1
8.25X10'1
7.90xlQ-2
8.66X10'1
8.75xlQ-5
3.39xlQ-5
3.70X10'1
6.86X10'1
3.20X10'1
8.04X10'1
2.27xlQ-5
1.89xlO-2
1.39xlO-4
2.59xlQ-3
2.11X10'1
3.35xlQ-2
2.23x10°
1.40x10°
20
Stationary
2.27xlQ-2
3.78xlQ-2
8.67xlQ-2
2.97xlQ-2
1.79X10'1
1.66xlO-3
4.08xlO-4
1.32X10'1
1.48X10'1
S.SOxlQ-1
7.90xlQ-2
6.14xlQ-3
5.41xlQ-2
2.50xlQ-3
2.23xlQ-2
3.32xlQ-2
4.89xlQ-2
1.20x10°
8.42X10'1
Ye
15
Mobile
3.36xlQ-2
4.81X10'1
4.96X10'1
4.23xlQ-2
4.93X10'1
1.03xlO-4
4.26xlQ-5
1.92X10'1
3.55X10'1
1.76X10'1
2.14X10'1
S.OlxlO'5
.24xlQ-2
.69xlQ-4
.68xlQ-3
.llxlO'1
.72xlQ-2
1.15x10°
7.16X10'1
:ar
20:
Stationary
2.28xlQ-2
4.01xlO-2
8.93xlQ-2
2.93xlQ-2
1.86X10'1
1.86xlO-3
4.61xlQ-4
1.45X10'1
1.60X10'1
6.27X10'1
8.22xlQ-2
6.80xlQ-3
5.77xlQ-2
2.74xlQ-3
2.32xlQ-2
3.39xlQ-2
5.53xlQ-2
1.32x10°
9.30X10'1
10
Mobile
3.50xlQ-2
4.80X10'1
5.07X10'1
4.41xlQ-2
S.OSxlQ-1
1.07xlO-4
4.56xlQ-5
1.93X10'1
3.61X10'1
.68X10'1
.96X10'1
3.28xlQ-5
.27xlQ-2
.SOxlO'4
.72xlQ-3
.12X10'1
.79xlQ-2
1.16x10°
7.22X10'1
20:
Stationary
2.28xlQ-2
4.01xlO-2
8.93xlQ-2
2.93xlQ-2
1.86X10'1
1.86xlO-3
4.61xlQ-4
1.45X10'1
1.60X10'1
6.27X10'1
8.22xlQ-2
6.80xlQ-3
5.77xlQ-2
2.74xlQ-3
2.32xlQ-2
3.39xlQ-2
5.53xlQ-2
1.32x10°
9.30X10'1
30
Mobile
4.08xlQ-2
5.48X10'1
5.88X10'1
5.12xlQ-2
5.86X10'1
1.20xlO-4
5.33xlQ-5
2.21X10'1
4.11X10'1
1.86X10'1
2.09X10'1
3.95xlQ-5
1.46xlO-2
2.04xlQ-4
1.98xlO-3
1.28X10'1
2.10xlO-2
1.34x10°
8.27X10'1
103
-------
-3\
Table 49. Controlled ASPEN stationary and mobile concentrations (|j,g m" ) for 2015, 2020, and
2030.
HAP
1,3 -Butadiene
2,2,4-Trimethylpentane
Acetaldehyde
Acrolein
Benzene
Chromium III
Chromium VI
Ethyl Benzene
Formaldehyde
Hexane
MTBE
Manganese
Naphthalene
Nickel
POM
Propionaldehyde
Styrene
Toluene
Xylenes
Year
2015
Stationary
2.27xlO'2
3.78xlO'2
8.67xlO'2
2.97xlO'2
1.76X10'1
1.66X10'3
4.08X10'4
1.32X10'1
1.48X10'1
S.SOxlO'1
7.90xlO'2
6.14xlO'3
5.41xlO'2
2.50xlO'3
2.23xlO'2
3.32xlO'2
4.89xlO'2
1.20x10°
8.42X10'1
Mobile
2.97xlO'2
4.15X10'1
4.32X10'1
3.82xlO'2
3.85X10'1
l.OSxlO'4
4.26xlO'5
1.68X10'1
3.26X10'1
1.57X10'1
2.03X10'1
S.OlxlO'5
1.24X10'2
1.69X10'4
1.68X10'3
9.95xlO'2
1.44X10'2
9.83X10'1
6.25X10'1
2020
Stationary
2.28xlO'2
4.01xlO'2
8.93xlO'2
2.93xlO'2
1.84X10'1
1.86X10'3
4.61xlO'4
1.45X10'1
1.60X10'1
6.27X10'1
8.22xlO'2
6.80xlO'3
5.77xlO'2
2.74xlO'3
2.32xlO'2
3.39xlO'2
5.53xlO'2
1.32x10°
9.30X10'1
Mobile
2.88xlO'2
3.78X10'1
4.06X10'1
3.76xlO'2
3.60X10'1
1.07X10'4
4.56xlO'5
1.56X10'1
3.15X10'1
1.42X10'1
1.84X10'1
3.28xlO'5
1.27X10'2
l.SOxlO'4
1.72X10'3
9.44xlO'2
1.34X10'2
9.03X10'1
S.SOxlO'1
2030
Stationary
2.28xlO'2
4.01X10'2
8.93xlO'2
2.93xlO'2
1.84X10'1
1.86X10'3
4.61X10'4
1.45X10'1
1.60X10'1
6.27X10'1
8.22xlO'2
6.80X10'3
5.77xlO'2
2.74xlO'3
2.32xlO'2
3.39xlO'2
5.53xlO'2
1.32x10°
9.30X10'1
Mobile
3.05xlO'2
3.86X10'1
4.24X10'1
4.04xlO'2
3.72X10'1
1.20X10'4
5.33xlO'5
1.61X10'1
3.37X10'1
1.48X10'1
1.92X10'1
3.95xlO'5
1.46X10'2
2.04X10'4
1.98X10'3
9.91xlO'2
1.36X10'2
9.20X10'1
5.98X10'1
Figures 27 through 30 show the distributions of the base and controlled average concentrations
for total concentrations (all sources and background) by HAP. For each HAP, the concentration
distributions for base and controlled cases are very similar. Figures 31 through 33 show the
distributions (dots represent mean ratios) of the ratio of controlled to base concentrations for total
concentrations for each HAP. Metals and total POM have ratios of 1.0 as the inventories did not
change between base and control for those HAPs. The spatial distribution of county median total
concentrations for benzene for the base and control cases are shown in Figures 34 through 40 .
Full concentration summaries can be found in aspen_concentrations.xls. Maps for acetaldehyde,
acrolein, benzene, 1,3-butadiene, formaldehyde, and naphthalene can be found in
acetaldehyde_aspen.ppt, acrolein_aspen.ppt, benzene_aspen.ppt, butadiene_aspen.ppt,
formaldehyde_aspen.ppt, and naphthalene_aspen.ppt. All summaries and maps can be found in
the MSAT rule docket, EPA-HQ-OAR-2005-0036.
104
-------
10
1999 Concentration Distributions for base (white)
95th Percentile |
75th Percentile
Median
25th Percentile y
5th Percentile '
10
10
10
-3
10
10
10
10
Figure 27. 1999 base ASPEN concentration distributions.
105
-------
95th Percentile |
75th Percentile
Median
25th Percentile
5th Percentile
10
10
10
2015 Concentration Distributions for base (white) and controls (gray)
-3
10
10
10
10
Figure 28. 2015 base and controlled ASPEN concentration distributions.
106
-------
95th Percentile |
75th Percentile
Median
25th Percentile
5th Percentile
10
10
10
2020 Concentration Distributions for base (white) and controls (gray)
-3
10
10
10
10
Figure 29. 2020 base and controlled ASPEN concentration distributions.
107
-------
95th Percentile |
75th Percentile
Median
25th Percentile
5th Percentile
10
10
10
2030 Concentration Distributions for base (white) and controls (gray)
-3
10
10
10
10
I
Figure 30. 2030 base and controlled ASPEN concentration distributions.
108
-------
Ratios of controlled to base ASPEN concentrations for 2015
95th Percentile
75th Percentile
Median
25th Percentile
5th Percentile '
1.1
1.05
0.95
0.9
'•£ 0.85
CL
0.8
0.75
0.7
0.65
0.6
T
«t*ff (^
sss
1
T
I
•F*
Figure 31. Distributions of the ratio of 2015 controlled annual average total concentrations to
2015 base annual average total concentrations by HAP. Totals include background
concentration.
109
-------
Ratios of controlled to base ASPEN concentrations for 2020
95th Percentile
75th Percentile
Median
25th Percentile
5th Percentile '
1.1
1.05
0.95
0.9
'•£ 0.85
CL
0.8
0.75
0.7
0.65
0.6
1
T
«t*ff Or
SSs
1
T
Figure 32. Distributions of the ratio of 2020 controlled annual average total concentrations to
2020 base annual average total concentrations by HAP. Totals include background
concentration.
110
-------
Ratios of controlled to base ASPEN concentrations for 2030
95th Percentile
75th Percentile
Median
25th Percentile
5th Percentile '
1.1
1.05
0.95
0.9
'•£ 0.85
cc
0.8
0.75
0.7
0.65
0.6
1
Figure 33. Distributions of the ratio of 2030 controlled annual average total concentrations to
2030 base annual average total concentrations by HAP. Totals include background
concentration.
Ill
-------
-3\
Figure 34. 1999 county level median total (all sources and background) concentrations (|j,g m" )
for benzene.
112
-------
Figure 35. 2015 base county level median total (all sources and background) concentrations
(|j,g m"3) for benzene.
113
-------
Figure 36. 2015 control county level median total (all sources and background) concentrations
(|j,g m"3) for benzene.
114
-------
Figure 37. 2020 base county level median total (all sources and background) concentrations
(|j,g m"3) for benzene.
115
-------
Figure 38. 2020 control county level median total (all sources and background) concentrations
(|j,g m"3) for benzene.
116
-------
Figure 39. 2030 base county level median total (all sources and background) concentrations
(|j,g m"3) for benzene.
117
-------
Figure 40. 2030 control county level median total (all sources and background) concentrations
(|j,g m"3) for benzene.
118
-------
7. HAPEM6 Model and Post-Processing
7.1 HAPEM6 Model
Exposure modeling was done using the HAPEM6 model, which is based on the HAPEM5 model
(U.S. EPA, 2007). One of the main differences between HAPEM6 and HAPEM5 is that
HAPEM6 accounts for near roadway concentrations.
The HAPEM6 exposure model used in this assessment is the most recent version in a series of
models that the EPA has used to model population exposures and risks at the urban and national
scale in a number of assessments (U.S. EPA, 1993; U.S EPA, 1999; U.S. EPA, 2002b).
HAPEM6 is designed to assess average long-term inhalation exposures of the general
population, or a specific sub-population, over spatial scales ranging from urban to national.
HAPEM6 uses the general approach of tracking representatives of specified demographic groups
as they move among indoor and outdoor microenvironments and among geographic locations.
The estimated pollutant concentrations in each microenvironment visited are combined into a
time-weighted average concentration, which is assigned to members of the demographic group.
HAPEM6 calculates 30 replicates with different exposures for each demographic group. These
data can be used to develop a distribution of exposures for the entire U. S. population.
HAPEM6 uses five primary sources of information: population data from the U.S. Census,
population activity data, air quality data, roadway locations, and microenvironmental data. The
population data used is obtained from the U.S. Census. Two kinds of activity data are used:
activity pattern data and commuting pattern data. The activity pattern data quantify the amount
of time individuals spend in a variety of microenvironments and come from EPA's Consolidated
Human Activity Database (CHAD) (Glen et al., 1997). The commuting data contained in the
HAPEM6 default file were derived from the year 2000 U.S. Census, and includes the number of
residents of each tract that work in that tract and every other U.S. Census tract, as well as data on
commuting times and distances. The air quality data come from ASPEN (after background has
been added). The road locations are determined from geographic information system files from
the U.S. Census. The microenvironmental data consist of factors that estimate air toxic
concentrations in specific microenvironments, based on penetration of outdoor air into the
microenvironment, proximity of the microenvironment to the emission source, and emission
sources within the microenvironment. These factors vary among pollutants (Long et al., 2004).
New to HAPEM6 are algorithms, which account for the gradient in concentrations of primary
(directly emitted) mobile source air toxics within 200 meters of major roadways (U.S. EPA,
2007). HAPEM6 adjusts ambient concentrations generated by ASPEN for each census tract
using concentration gradients developed using the CALPUFF dispersion model (Cohen et al.,
2005). For locations within 75 meters and from 75 to 200 meters from major roads, ambient
concentrations are adjusted upward, while locations further from major roadways are adjusted
downward. These adjustments are consistent with results from prior modeling studies that
explicitly accounted for concentration gradients around major roads within census tracts (Pratt et
al, 2004). These adjusted concentrations are then employed in microenvironmental concentration
calculations.
119
-------
HAPEM6 has a number of other technical improvements over the previous version of HAPEM5.
These improvements, along with other details of the model, are described in the HAPEM6 User's
Guide (U.S. EPA 2007). The HAPEM6 runs used year 2000 census data. Average lifetime
exposure for an individual in a census tract was calculated from data for individual demographic
groups using a post-processing routine. We estimated the contributions to ambient
concentrations for the following source sectors: major, area and other, onroad, nonroad, and
background.
7.2 Air quality input files
ASPEN results were also processed for input to HAPEM6. ASPEN outputs annual average
tract-level concentrations for eight 3-hour time blocks. The concentrations were extracted from
the binary ASPEN output, .exp files, using the AVGDAT program and written to an ASCII text
file. The concentrations were then processed in a similar fashion as for the annual average
concentrations: fine and coarse components of the metals added together, gas and paniculate
phases of naphthalene added together and secondary concentrations added to the secondary
HAPs using the approach described in Section 6.3.1. Once these steps were done there were
eight 3-hour concentrations for major, area & other, total onroad, total nonroad. Background
was also added for each tract.
7.3 HAPEM6 output
For each HAP, the HAPEM6 output file consisted of a series of concentrations for each tract.
For each tract, the 1st, 5th, 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 90th, 95th, and 99th percentile concentrations for the
total concentrations were listed along with the individual source category concentrations for each
total concentration. For summary purposes, the 50th, or median, and 90th percentiles were
summarized.
For all pollutants, with the exception of benzene, the base and control stationary ASPEN
concentrations were identical for a given year, such as 2015. Additionally, for the metals
(chromium III, chromium VI, manganese, and nickel), POM and naphthalene, the base and
control mobile ASPEN concentrations were identical. For all years and cases, the background
concentrations added to the ASPEN results were the same. Finally, for 2030, for all HAPs, the
stationary concentrations were equal to the 2020 ASPEN concentrations for either base or
control cases. However, in the HAPEM output, the base and stationary concentrations, mobile
concentrations, and background were not equal as they were in ASPEN. This is due to the post-
processing of the raw HAPEM output. The tract-level source category concentrations associated
with each of the percentiles above are adjusted by multiplying by the tract-level median total
concentration by the ratio of the average source category concentration (major, area & other,
etc.) by the tract average total concentration. For a given year, while the stationary
concentrations and background may remain the same for base and control cases for ASPEN, the
total concentration changes due to changes in mobile concentrations between base and control.
Therefore, the total concentrations change, which will affect the stationary and background
120
-------
concentrations in the final HAPEM6 output. To alleviate this the following steps were taken in
creating the concentration summaries of HAPEM6 output:
• For 2015, 2020, and 2030 for base and control concentrations, the background
concentrations were set equal to the 1999 background concentrations at the census tract
level.
• For a given year, for each HAP, except benzene, the control case stationary
concentrations were set equal to the corresponding year and HAP's base stationary
concentrations at the census tract level.
• For a given year, for propionaldehyde and styrene, the control case nonroad
concentrations were set equal to the base nonroad concentrations.
• For all HAPs for 2030, the stationary concentrations for the base case were set equal to
the 2020 stationary base concentrations. For all HAPs except benzene, the 2030
stationary control concentrations were set equal to the 2020 base stationary
concentrations. For benzene for 2030, the stationary control concentrations were set
equal to the 2020 stationary control concentrations. All substitutions were at the census
tract level.
• For a given year, for the metals, POM, and naphthalene, the control case onroad and
nonroad concentrations were set equal to the corresponding year and HAP's base onroad
and nonroad concentrations at the census tract level.
Figures 41 through 45 show the above steps in diagram form and a summarization of the steps is
listed in Table 50.
121
-------
1999 base
concentration
4
20 15 or 2020 base
s concentrations
1
Retain only median and 90th Retain only median and 90th
percentile background percentile major and area &
concentrations by tract other concentrations by tract
1
backgrou
HAPs:
1,3-Butadiene; 2,2,4
Acetaldehyde; Acrol
Formaldehyde; Hexa
Xylenes
1
nd stationary
.4.
Merge by FIPS and tract and
recalculate total concentrations
for each tract for median and
90th percentiles.
Trimethylpentane; i
ein; Ethyl Benzene; I
ne; MTBE; Toluene;
updated
concentrations
2015 or 2020 controlled
concentrations
,
1
Retain only median and 90th
percentile onroad and nonroad
concentrations by tract
,
1
mobile
a
1999 base
concentration
4
20 15 or 2020 base
s concentrations
4
2015 or 2020 controlled
concentrations
4
Retain only median and 90th Retain median and 90th percentile Retain only median and 90th
percentile background major, area & other, and nonroad percentile onroad
concentrations by tract concentrations by tract concentrations by tract
1
backgrou
HAPs:
Propionaldehyde; St1
|
nd stationary & nonroad
.4.
Merge by FIPS and tract and
recalculate total concentrations
for each tract for median and
90th percentiles.
/rene i
updated
concentrations
,
1
mobile
b
Figure 41. Modification of 2015 and 2020 HAPEM6 controlled concentrations for a) all HAPs
excluding benzene, metals, naphthalene, POM, propionaldehyde, and styrene and b)
propionaldehyde and styrene.
122
-------
1999 base
concentrations
I
2015 or 2020 base
concentrations
! Keep only median and 90th
! percentile background
! concentrations by tract
I
I
Retain major, area & other,
onroad, and nonroad median
and 90th percentile
concentrations by tract
background
HAPs:
Chromium III; Chromium VI;
Manganese; Naphthalene; Nickel; POM
Merge by FIPS and tract and
recalculate total concentrations
for each tract for median and
90th percentiles.
1
a
updated
concentrations
1999 base
concentrations
2015 or 2020 controlled
concentrations
Keep only median and 90th
percentile background
concentrations by tract
Retain major, area & other,
onroad, and nonroad median
and 90th percentile
concentrations by tract
HAP:
Benzene
Merge by FIPS and tract and
recalculate total concentrations
for each tract for median and
90th percentile;.
updated
concentrations
Figure 42. Modification of 2015 and 2020 HAPEM6 controlled concentrations for a) metals,
naphthalene, and POM and b) benzene.
123
-------
1999 base concentrations
i
Retain only median and 90th ]
percentile background ]
concentrations by tract c
I
background
I
^ i
' 1
HAPs: c
Acetaldehyde; Acrolein; Benzene;
Chromium III; Chromium VI; Ethyl
Benzene; Formaldehyde; Hexane;
POM; Propionaldehyde; Styrene; Toluene;
Xylenes;
2020 base concentrations
i
letain only median and 90th
)ercentile major and area &
)ther concentrations by tract
I
stationary
1
vferge by FIPS and tract and
ecalculate total concentrations
or each tract for median and
)0th percentiles.
I
updated
concentrations
2030 base concentrations
i
Retain only median and 90th
percentile onroad and nonroad
concentrations by tract
I
mobile
Figure 43. Modification of 2030 base HAPEM6 concentrations for all HAPs.
124
-------
1999 base concentrations
1
Retain only median and 90th
percentile background
concentrations by tract
I
background
HAPs:
1 ,3-Butadiene; 2,2,4-Trimethylpent<
Acetaldehyde; Acrolein; Ethyl Benz
Formaldehyde; Hexane; MTBE; To
Xylenes
2020 base concentrations 2030
i
controlled concentrations
...... 1
Retain only median and 90th Retain only median and 90th
percentile major and area & percentile onroad and nonroad
other concentrations by tract concentrations by tract
1
stationary
1
Merge by FIPS and tract and
recalculate total concentrations
for each tract for median and
90th percentiles.
ene; ^
uenei updated
concentrations
1
mobile
a
1999 base concentrations
1
Retain only median and 90th
percentile background
concentrations by tract
|
background
HAPs:
Propionaldehyde; Styrene
2020 base concentrations 2030
1
controlled concentrations
I
Retain only median and 90th Retain only median and 90th
percentile major, area & other, and percentile onroad
nonroad concentrations by tract concentrations by tract
1
stationary & nonroad
1
Merge by FIPS and tract and
recalculate total concentrations
for each tract for median and
90th percentiles.
I
updated
concentrations
I
mobile
b
Figure 44. Modification of 2030 HAPEM6 controlled concentrations for a) all HAPs excluding
benzene, metals, naphthalene, POM, propionaldehyde, and styrene and b) propionaldehyde and
styrene.
125
-------
1999 base concentrations
i
Retain only median and 90th
percentile background
concentrations by tract
I
background
HAPs:
Chromium III; Chromium VI;
Manganese; Naphthalene; Nick
a
2020 base concentrations
1
Retain only median and 90th
percentile major and area &
other concentrations by tract
1
stationary
1
Merge by FIPS and tract and
recalculate total concentrations
2030 base concentrations
i
Retain only median and 90th
percentile onroad and nonroad
concentrations by tract
I
mobile
for each tract for median and
90th percentiles.
si; POM
I
updated
concentrations
1999 base concentrations
i
Retain only median and 90th
percentile background
concentrations by tract
I
background
HAP:
Benzene
b
2020 controlled concentrations
i
Retain only median and 90th
percentile major and area &
other concentrations by tract
1
stationary
1
Merge by FIPS and tract and
recalculate total concentrations
2030 controlled concentrations
i
Retain only median and 90th
percentile onroad and nonroad
concentrations by tract
I
mobile
for each tract for median and
90th percentiles.
1
updated
concentrations
Figure 45. Modification of 2030 HAPEM6 controlled concentrations for a) metals, naphthalene,
and POM and b) benzene.
126
-------
Table 50. Concentration replacement strategy for controlled HAPEM concentrations.
Source category
Background
Major source base
Area & other
source base
Major source
controlled
Area & other
source controlled
Onroad controlled
Nonroad
controlled
Strategy
Replace all future years (base and
control) with 1999 background.
For 2030 base, replace all
concentrations with 2020 base.
For 2030 base, replace all
concentrations with 2020 base.
For 2015 and 2020 replace controlled
concentrations with base concentrations
For 2015 and 2020 leave controlled
concentrations unchanged.
For 2030 controlled, replace the
concentrations with 2020 base
concentrations.
For 2030 controlled, replace with 2020
controlled concentrations.
For 2015 and 2020 replace controlled
concentrations with base concentrations
For 2015 and 2020 leave controlled
concentrations unchanged.
For 2030 controlled, replace the
concentrations with 2020 base
concentrations.
For 2030 controlled, replace with 2020
controlled concentrations.
For a given year, replace the controlled
concentrations with base concentrations
for the same year.
For a given year, replace the controlled
concentrations with base concentrations
for the same year.
HAP(s)
All
All
All
1,3 -Butadiene; 2,2,4-Trimethylpentane;
Acetaldehyde; Acrolein; Chromium III; Chromium
VI; Ethyl Benzene; Formaldehyde; Hexane;
Manganese; MTBE; Naphthalene; Nickel; POM;
Propionaldehyde; Styrene; Toluene; Xylenes;
Benzene
1,3 -Butadiene; 2,2,4-Trimethylpentane;
Acetaldehyde; Acrolein; Chromium III; Chromium
VI; Ethyl Benzene; Formaldehyde; Hexane;
Manganese; MTBE; Naphthalene; Nickel; POM;
Propionaldehyde; Styrene; Toluene; Xylenes;
Benzene
1,3 -Butadiene; 2,2,4-Trimethylpentane;
Acetaldehyde; Acrolein; Chromium III; Chromium
VI; Ethyl Benzene; Formaldehyde; Hexane;
Manganese; MTBE; Naphthalene; Nickel; POM;
Propionaldehyde; Styrene; Toluene; Xylenes;
Benzene
1,3 -Butadiene; 2,2,4-Trimethylpentane;
Acetaldehyde; Acrolein; Chromium III; Chromium
VI; Ethyl Benzene; Formaldehyde; Hexane;
Manganese; MTBE; Naphthalene; Nickel; POM;
Propionaldehyde; Styrene; Toluene; Xylenes;
Benzene
Chromium III; Chromium VI; Manganese;
Naphthalene; Nickel; POM;
Chromium III; Chromium VI; Manganese;
Naphthalene; Nickel; POM; Propionaldehyde;
Styrene
National summaries by year for base HAPEM6 concentrations are shown in Table 51 and Table
52 with controlled concentrations shown in Table 53 and Table 54.
127
-------
Table 51. HAPEM national average concentrations (based on median tract concentrations) for 1999,2015, 2020, and 2030.
HAP
1,3 -Butadiene
2,2,4-Trimethylpentane
Acetaldehyde
Acrolein
Benzene
Chromium III
Chromium VI
Ethyl Benzene
Formaldehyde
Hexane
MTBE
Manganese
Naphthalene
Nickel
POM
Propionaldehyde
Styrene
Toluene
Xylenes
Background
3.96xlO"2
0.00x10°
4.00X10"1
0.00x10°
S.OSxlO"1
0.00x10°
0.00x10°
0.00x10°
6.12X10"1
0.00x10°
0.00x10°
0.00x10°
0.00x10°
0.00x10°
0.00x10°
0.00x10°
0.00x10°
0.00x10°
1.28X10"1
19<
Stationary
1.82xlO"2
3.56xlO"2
6.67xlO"2
2.60xlO"2
1.33X10"1
5.02xlO"4
1.22xlO"4
8.94xlO"2
l.OSxlO"1
4.15X10"1
5.89xlO"2
1.95xlO"3
3.75xlO"2
8.81xlO"4
1.29xlO"2
2.57xlO"2
3.18xlO"2
S.lSxlO"1
5.47X10"1
)9
Mobile
8.03xlO"2
9.81X10"1
9.26X10"1
8.44xlO"2
9.59X10"1
4.15xlO"5
l.SOxlO"5
4.02X10"1
7.66X10"1
3.56X10"1
S.OOxlO"1
1.32xlO"5
2.17xlO"2
6.55xlO"5
2.11xlO"3
2.26X10"1
3.70xlO"2
2.49x10°
1.54x10°
20
Stationary
1.86xlO"2
3.05xlO"2
7.02xlO"2
2.43xlO"2
l.SOxlO"1
6.53xlO"4
1.63xlO"4
LlOxlO"1
1.24X10"1
4.91X10"1
6.48xlO"2
2.43xlO"3
4.52xlO"2
9.97xlO"4
1.38xlO"2
2.61xlO"2
3.95xlO"2
9.96X10"1
7.11X10"1
Ye
15
Mobile
3.89xlO"2
S.OSxlO"1
5.61X10"1
4.40xlO"2
5.52X10"1
4.99xlO"5
2.32xlO"5
2.09X10"1
3.84X10"1
1.94X10"1
2.13X10"1
.76xlO"5
.39xlO"2
8.09xlO"5
.33xlO"3
.ISxlO"1
.91xlO"2
1.29x10°
7.96X10"1
:ar
20:
Stationary
1.87xlO"2
3.24xlO"2
7.22xlO"2
2.40xlO"2
1.56X10"1
7.34xlO"4
1.84xlO"4
1.21X10"1
1.34X10"1
5.32X10"1
6.75xlO"2
2.69xlO"3
4.82xlO"2
1.09xlO"3
1.43xlO"2
2.66xlO"2
4.46xlO"2
1.10x10°
7.87X10"1
10
Mobile
4.05xlO"2
S.OSxlO"1
5.75X10"1
4.57xlO"2
5.66X10"1
5.27xlO"5
2.50xlO"5
2.10X10"1
3.90X10"1
.SSxlO"1
.93X10"1
.92xlO"5
.41xlO"2
8.64xlO"5
.36xlO"3
.21X10"1
.99xlO"2
1.31x10°
S.OSxlO"1
20:
Stationary
1.87xlO"2
3.24xlO"2
7.22xlO"2
2.40xlO"2
1.56X10"1
7.34xlO"4
1.84xlO"4
1.21X10"1
1.34X10"1
5.32X10"1
6.75xlO"2
2.69xlO"3
4.82xlO"2
1.09xlO"3
1.43xlO"2
2.66xlO"2
4.46xlO"2
1.10x10°
7.87X10"1
30
Mobile
4.71xlO"2
5.82X10"1
6.66X10"1
5.30xlO"2
6.55X10"1
5.99xlO"5
2.96xlO"5
2.41X10"1
4.45X10"1
2.05X10"1
2.04X10"1
2.33xlO"5
1.63xlO"2
9.92xlO"5
1.58xlO"3
l.SSxlO"1
2.34xlO"2
1.51x10°
9.23X10"1
128
-------
,th .
Table 52. HAPEM national average concentrations (based on 90 percentile tract concentrations) for 1999,2015, 2020, and 2030
HAP
1,3 -Butadiene
2,2,4-Trimethylpentane
Acetaldehyde
Acrolein
Benzene
Chromium III
Chromium VI
Ethyl Benzene
Formaldehyde
Hexane
MTBE
Manganese
Naphthalene
Nickel
POM
Propionaldehyde
Styrene
Toluene
Xylenes
Background
5.88xlO'2
0.00x10°
5. 82x10''
0.00x10°
4.50X10'1
0.00x10°
0.00x10°
0.00x10°
S.OSxlO'1
0.00x10°
0.00x10°
0.00x10°
0.00x10°
0.00x10°
0.00x10°
0.00x10°
0.00x10°
0.00x10°
2.04X10'1
Year
1999
Stationary
2.43xlO'2
5.77xlO'2
9.82xlO'2
3.73xlO'2
1.97X10'1
7.14xlO'4
1.77X10'4
1.42X10'1
1.34X10'1
5.86X10'1
8.59xlO'2
2.62xlO'3
4.87xlO'2
1.25X10'3
l.SSxlO'2
4.09xlO'2
4.65xlO'2
1.30x10°
8.28X10'1
Mobile
1.25X10'1
1.69x10°
1.45x10°
1.35X10'1
1.47x10°
6.03xlO'5
2.64X10'5
6.84X10'1
1.04x10°
5.39X10'1
1.24x10°
1.79X10'5
2.95xlO'2
9.56xlO'5
2.74xlO'3
3.92X10'1
6.42xlO'2
4.18x10°
2.47x10°
2015
Stationary
2.37xlO'2
4.86xlO'2
9.59xlO'2
3.16xlO'2
2.08X10'1
9.32xlO'4
2.36xlO'4
1.66X10'1
1.47X10'1
6.60X10'1
8.69xlO'2
3.27xlO'3
5.54xlO'2
1.40X10'3
1.67X10'2
3.87xlO'2
5.62xlO'2
1.48x10°
1.01x10°
Mobile
5.50xlO'2
8.62X10'1
8.17X10'1
6.48xlO'2
7.91X10'1
7.32X10'5
3.40X10'5
3.38X10'1
4.70X10'1
2.75X10'1
3.26X10'1
2.39X10'5
1.75X10'2
1.17X10'4
1.65X10'3
1.95X10'1
S.lSxlO'2
2.04x10°
1.19x10°
2020
Stationary
2.39xlO'2
5.14X10'2
9.89xlO'2
3.12xlO'2
2.18X10'1
l.OSxlO'3
2.67xlO'4
1.82X10'1
l.SSxlO'1
7.10X10'1
8.95xlO'2
3.63xlO'3
5.89xlO'2
1.54X10'3
1.74X10'2
3.94xlO'2
6.33xlO'2
1.63x10°
1.12x10°
Mobile
5.76xlO'2
8.63X10'1
8.42X10'1
6.76xlO'2
8.12X10'1
7.76xlO'5
3.67X10'5
3.39X10'1
4.79X10'1
2.59X10'1
2.89X10'1
2.62xlO'5
1.77X10'2
1.24X10'4
1.70X10'3
2.00X10'1
3.30xlO'2
2.05x10°
1.20x10°
2030
Stationary
2.39xlO'2
5.14xlO'2
9.89xlO'2
3.12xlO'2
2.18X10'1
l.OSxlO'3
2.67xlO'4
1.82X10'1
l.SSxlO'1
7.10X10'1
8.95xlO'2
3.63xlO'3
5.89xlO'2
1.54X10'3
1.74X10'2
3.94xlO'2
6.33xlO'2
1.63x10°
1.12x10°
Mobile
6.82xlO'2
9.94X10'1
9.96X10'1
7.93xlO'2
9.58X10'1
S.SSxlO'5
4.38xlO'5
3.93X10'1
5.55X10'1
2.88X10'1
3.04X10'1
3.17X10'5
2.06xlO'2
1.43X10'4
1.99X10'3
2.32X10'1
3.92xlO'2
2.40x10°
1.39x10°
129
-------
Table 53. HAPEM national average controlled concentrations (based on median tract
concentrations) for 2015, 2020, and 2030.
HAP
1,3 -Butadiene
2,2,4-Trimethylpentane
Acetaldehyde
Acrolein
Benzene
Chromium III
Chromium VI
Ethyl Benzene
Formaldehyde
Hexane
MTBE
Manganese
Naphthalene
Nickel
POM
Propionaldehyde
Styrene
Toluene
Xylenes
Year
2015
Stationary
1.86xl(r2
S.OSxlO'2
7.02X10'2
2.43xlO'2
1.49X10'1
6.53xlO'4
1.63xl(r4
LlOxlO'1
1.24X10'1
4.91X10'1
6.48xlO'2
2.43xlO'3
4.52xlO'2
9.97xlO'4
l.SSxlO'2
2.61xlO'2
3.95xlO'2
9.96X10'1
V.llxlO'1
Mobile
3.42xlO'2
4.37X10'1
4.84X10'1
3.93xlO'2
4.31X10'1
4.99xlO'5
2.32xlO'5
l.SlxlO'1
3.49X10'1
1.75X10'1
2.03X10'1
1.76X10'5
1.39X10'2
8.09xlO'5
1.33X10'3
l.OSxlO'1
1.59X10'2
1.10x10°
6.90X10'1
2020
Stationary
1.87X10'2
3.24xlO'2
7.22xlO'2
2.40xlO'2
l.SSxlO'1
7.34xlO'4
1.84X10'4
1.21X10'1
1.34X10'1
5.32X10'1
6.75xlO'2
2.69xlO'3
4.82xlO'2
1.09X10'3
1.43X10'2
2.66xlO'2
4.46xlO'2
1.10x10°
7.87X10'1
Mobile
3.29xlO'2
3.97X10'1
4.54X10'1
3.82xlO'2
4.02X10'1
5.27xlO'5
2.50xlO'5
1.68X10'1
3.35X10'1
1.57X10'1
l.SOxlO'1
1.92X10'5
1.41X10'2
8.64xlO'5
1.36X10'3
9.91xlO'2
1.48X10'2
1.01x10°
6.39X10'1
2030
Stationary
1.87X10'2
3.24xlO'2
7.22xlO'2
2.40xlO'2
1.55X10'1
7.34xlO'4
1.84X10'4
1.21X10'1
1.34X10'1
5.32X10'1
6.75xlO'2
2.69xlO'3
4.82xlO'2
1.09X10'3
1.43X10'2
2.66xlO'2
4.46xlO'2
1.10x10°
7.87X10'1
Mobile
3.46xlO'2
4.04X10'1
4.71X10'1
4.07xlO'2
4.13X10'1
5.99xlO'5
2.96xlO'5
1.73X10'1
3.56X10'1
1.62X10'1
1.86X10'1
2.33xlO'5
1.63X10'2
9.92xlO'5
l.SSxlO'3
l.OSxlO'1
l.SOxlO'2
1.03x10°
6.54X10'1
-,th
Table 54. HAPEM national average controlled concentrations (based on 90 percentile tract
concentrations) for 2015, 2020, and 2030.
HAP
1,3 -Butadiene
2,2,4-Trimethylpentane
Acetaldehyde
Acrolein
Benzene
Chromium III
Chromium VI
Ethyl Benzene
Formaldehyde
Hexane
MTBE
Manganese
Naphthalene
Nickel
POM
Propionaldehyde
Styrene
Toluene
Xylenes
Year
2015
Stationary
2.37xlO'2
4.86xlO'2
9.59xlO'2
3.16xlO'2
2.01X10'1
9.32xlO'4
2.36xlO'4
1.66X10'1
1.47X10'1
6.60X10'1
8.69xlO'2
3.27xlO'3
5.54xlO'2
1.40X10'3
1.67X10'2
3.87xlO'2
5.62xlO'2
1.48x10°
1.01x10°
Mobile
4.73xlO'2
7.34X10'1
6.84X10'1
5.64xlO'2
5.95X10'1
7.32xlO'5
3.40xlO'5
2.90X10'1
4.20X10'1
2.46X10'1
S.llxlO'1
2.39xlO'5
1.75X10'2
1.17X10'4
1.65X10'3
1.70X10'1
2.61xlO'2
1.71x10°
1.01x10°
2020
Stationary
2.39xlO'2
5.14xlO'2
9.89xlO'2
3.12xlO'2
2.08X10'1
l.OSxlO'3
2.67xlO'4
1.82X10'1
l.SSxlO'1
7.10X10'1
8.95xlO'2
3.63xlO'3
5.89xlO'2
1.54X10'3
1.74X10'2
3.94xlO'2
6.33xlO'2
1.63x10°
1.12x10°
Mobile
4.52xlO'2
6.62X10'1
6.32X10'1
5.43xlO'2
5.47X10'1
7.76xlO'5
3.67xlO'5
2.64X10'1
4.00X10'1
2.17X10'1
2.69X10'1
2.62xlO'5
1.77X10'2
1.24X10'4
1.70X10'3
1.60X10'1
2.40xlO'2
1.54x10°
9.20X10'1
2030
Stationary
2.39xlO'2
5.14X10'2
9.89xlO'2
3.12xlO'2
2.08X10'1
l.OSxlO'3
2.67xlO'4
1.82X10'1
l.SSxlO'1
7.10X10'1
8.95xlO'2
3.63xlO'3
5.89xlO'2
1.54X10'3
1.74X10'2
3.94xlO'2
6.33xlO'2
1.63x10°
1.12x10°
Mobile
4.76xlO'2
6.69X10'1
6.56X10'1
5.73xlO'2
5.62X10'1
S.SSxlO'5
4.38xlO'5
2.71X10'1
4.27X10'1
2.24X10'1
2.75X10'1
3.17X10'5
2.06xlO'2
1.43X10'4
1.99X10'3
1.66X10'1
2.43xlO'2
1.56x10°
9.42X10'1
130
-------
Figures 46 through 49 show the concentration distributions for 1999 base, 2015, 2020, and 2030
HAPEM concentrations. Figures 50-52 show the ratio of controlled to base HAPEM6
concentrations for 2015, 2020, and 2030. In those figures, the dots represent the mean ratio.
Figures 53-59 show the spatial distribution of county median HAPEM6 concentrations (based on
median tract exposure) for 1999, 2015, 2020, and 2030. Full concentration summaries can be
found in hapem_concentrations_50.xls and hapem_concentrations_90.xls for median and 90th
percentile tract concentrations. Maps for acetaldehyde, acrolein, benzene, 1,3-butadiene,
formaldehyde, and naphthalene can be found in acetaldehyde_hapem.ppt, acrolein_hapem.ppt,
benzene_hapem.ppt, butadiene_hapem.ppt, formaldehyde_hapem.ppt, and
naphthalene_hapem.ppt. All summaries and maps can be found in the MSAT rule docket, EPA-
HQ-OAR-2005-0036.
131
-------
1939 HAPEM Concentration Distributions for base
25th PercentiieU''0
5th Pereentile '
^^^7-^7^7^
a
1999 HAPEM Concentration Distributions for base
95th Percentile •
75th Percentile r
Median
o
i
b
Figure 46. 1999 base HAPEM6 tract concentration distributions for a) tract median exposure
concentration and b) tract 90th percentile exposure concentration.
132
-------
25th Percentile y10
5th Percentile '
io~
75th Percentile r
Median
2015 Concentration Distributions for base (white) and controls (gray)
a
2015 Concentration Distributions for base (white) and controls (gray)
b
Figure 47. 2015 base and controlled HAPEM6 tract concentration distributions for a) tract
median exposure concentration and b) tract 90th percentile exposure concentration.
133
-------
25th Percentile y10
5th Percentile '
io"
75th Percentile r
Median
m
2020 Concentration Distributions for base (white) and controls (gray)
a
2020 Concentration Distributions for base (white) and controls (gray)
b
Figure 48. 2020 base and controlled HAPEM6 tract concentration distributions for a) tract
median exposure concentration and b) tract 90th percentile exposure concentration.
134
-------
25th Percentile y10
5th Percentile '
io"
75th Percentile r
Median
2030 Concentration Distributions for base (white) and controls (gray)
a
2030 Concentration Distributions for base (white) and controls (gray)
b
Figure 49. 2030 base and controlled HAPEM6 tract concentration distributions for a) tract
median exposure concentration and b) tract 90th percentile exposure concentration.
135
-------
Ratios of controlled to base HAPEM concentrations for 2015
1.1
95th Percentile j
75th Percentile rh
Median N 1.05
25th Percentile U
5th Percentile '
a
Ratios of controlled to base HAPEM concentrations for 2015
T
b
Figure 50. Distributions of the ratio of 2015 HAPEM6 controlled annual average total
concentrations to 2015 HAPEM6 base annual average total concentrations by HAP for a) tract
median exposure concentration and b) tract 90th percentile exposure concentration. Totals
include background concentration.
136
-------
Ratios of controlled to base HAPEM concentrations for 2020
1.1
95th Percentile ,
75th Percentile rh
Median N 1.05
25th Percentile U
5th Percentile '
a
*
w
Ratios of controlled to base HAPEM concentrations for 2020
b
Figure 51. Distributions of the ratio of 2020 HAPEM6 controlled annual average total
concentrations to 2020 HAPEM6 base annual average total concentrations by HAP for a) tract
median exposure concentration and b) tract 90th percentile exposure concentration. Totals
include background concentration.
137
-------
Ratios of controlled to base HAPEM concentrations for 2030
1.1
95th Percentile ,
75th Percentile rh
Median N 1.05
25th Percentile U
5th Percentile '
a
*
w
Ratios of controlled to base HAPEM concentrations for 2030
b
Figure 52. Distributions of the ratio of 2030 HAPEM6 controlled annual average total
concentrations to 2030 HAPEM6 base annual average total concentrations by HAP for a) tract
median exposure concentration and b) tract 90th percentile exposure concentration. Totals
include background concentration.
138
-------
Figure 53. 1999 HAPEM6 county level median total (all sources and background)
concentrations (ng m"3) for benzene. Median concentration based on tract median exposure
concentrations.
139
-------
Figure 54. 2015 base HAPEM6 county level median total (all sources and background)
concentrations (ng m"3) for benzene. Median concentration based on tract median exposure
concentrations.
140
-------
Figure 55. 2015 controlled HAPEM6 county level median total (all sources and background)
concentrations (ng m"3) for benzene. Median concentration based on tract median exposure
concentrations.
141
-------
Figure 56. 2020 base HAPEM6 county level median total (all sources and background)
concentrations (ng m"3) for benzene. Median concentration based on tract median exposure
concentrations.
142
-------
Figure 57. 2020 controlled HAPEM6 county level median total (all sources and background)
concentrations (ng m"3) for benzene. Median concentration based on tract median exposure
concentrations.
143
-------
Figure 58. 2030 base HAPEM6 county level median total (all sources and background)
concentrations (ng m"3) for benzene. Median concentration based on tract median exposure
concentrations.
144
-------
Figure 59. 2030 controlled HAPEM6 county level median total (all sources and background)
concentrations (ng m"3) for benzene. Median concentration based on tract median exposure
concentrations.
145
-------
This page intentionally blank
146
-------
8. Cancer and non-cancer risk calculations
Cancer risk and non-cancer hazard quotients (HQ) were calculated in HAPEM6 post-processing
for each tract. Table 55 lists the MSAT HAPS with their respective unit risk estimates (URE) for
cancer calculations and non-cancer reference concentrations (RfC) for non-cancer calculations,
resulting from long term (chronic) inhalation exposure to these HAPS. Also listed are the HAPs
appropriate carcinogenic class and target organ system(s) for non-cancer effects.
Table 55. MSAT HAPs carcinogenic class, URE, non-cancer target organ systems, and RfC.
N/A denotes HAP is not a cancer or non-cancer HAP.
HAP
1,3 -Butadiene
2,2,4-Trimethylpentane
Acetaldehyde
Acrolein
Benzene
Chromium III
Chromium VI
Ethyl Benzene
Formaldehyde
Hexane
Manganese
MTBE
Naphthalene
Nickel
Propionaldehyde
POM1
POM2
POMS
POM4
POMS
POM6
POM7
POMS
Styrene
Toluene
Xylenes
Carcinogen
Class
A
N/A
B2
A
N/A
A
Bl
C
A
N/A
B2
B2
B2
B2
B2
B2
B2
B2
URE
S.OxlO'5
N/A
2.2xl(r6
N/A
7.8xl(r6
N/A
1.2xl(r2
N/A
5.5xlO'9
N/A
N/A
N/A
3.4xlO'5
1.6xl(r4
N/A
5.5xlO'5
5.5xlO'5
.OxlO'1
.OxlO'2
.OxlO'3
.OxlO'4
.OxlO'5
2.0xl(T4
N/A
N/A
N/A
Organ systems
Reproductive
N/A
Respiratory
Respiratory
Immune
N/A
Respiratory
Developmental
Respiratory
Respiratory, Neurological
Neurological
Liver, Kidney, Ocular
Respiratory
Respiratory, Immune
N/A
Neurological
Respiratory, Neurological
Neurological
RfC
2.0xlO'3
N/A
9.0xlO'3
2.0xlO'5
S.OxlO'2
N/A
l.OxlO'4
1.0
9.8xlO'3
2.0X10'1
S.OxlO'5
3.0
S.OxlO'3
6.5xlO'5
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1.0
4.0X10'1
l.OxlO'1
Carcinogen classes:
A: Known carcinogens
B 1 : Probable carcinogens, based on incomplete human data
B2: Probable carcinogens, based on adequate animal data
C: Possible carcinogens
URE and RfC estimates were obtained from hazard and dose-response information that EPA's
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards posts on the internet ("OAQPS Toxicity Values")
at the following link: www.epa.gov/ttn/fera. This information is updated as new data become
available; the version of the table used for this paper is the same as used for the 1999 NATA (U.
S. EPA, 2005e).
147
-------
8.1 Cancer risk calculations
In the HAPEM6 output, for each source group, there are 30 replicate exposure concentrations for
each of the six demographic groups (180 concentrations per tract for each source group). For
each source category and each of the 30 replicates, a lifetime exposure concentration was
calculated as shown in brackets in Equation 24 below. The lifetime exposure concentration was
then multiplied by the HAP's URE to yield a lifetime risk for each of the 30 replicates as shown
below:
Risk. =
((X u x 2) + (X ia x 3) + (X ,_3 x 11) + (X iA x 2) + (X 15 x 4?) + (X /,6 x 5))
70
x URE (24)
where X;;i is the concentration for demographic group 1 (ages 0-1) for replicate i (i = 1 to 30),
X;;2 is the concentration for demographic group 2 (ages 2-4) for replicate i, Xp is the
concentration for demographic group 3 (ages 5-15) for replicate i, Xi;4 is the concentration for
demographic group 4 (ages 16-17) for replicate i, X;,5 is the concentration for demographic group
5 (ages 18-64) for replicate i, and X;;6 is the concentration for demographic group 6 (ages 65-70)
for replicate i. For each demographic group, the replicate i concentrations are multiplied by the
number of years for each demographic group. For example for replicate 1 for major sources,
each of the demographic groups' replicate 1 major source exposure concentrations would be
inserted into Equation 24 to yield a lifetime risk for major sources for replicate 1. Similar steps
would be used for other source categories and replicates.
The result was 30 lifetime exposure replicate risks for each tract and source category. An
example output file for benzene is shown in Figure 60. In Figure 60, the first tract for the
country is shown. There are 30 replicates among the demographic groups, each with a
population, variable POP and six source category risks (SCI = major, SC2 = area & other, SC3 =
onroad, SC4 = nonroad, SC5 = background, and SC6 = total).
148
-------
SAROD: 45201
URE: 7.8000E-06
ST CTY TRACT POP SCI SC2
01001
01001
01001
01001
01001
01001
01001
01001
01001
01001
01001
01001
01001
01001
01001
01001
01001
01001
01001
01001
01001
01001
01001
01001
01001
01001
01001
01001
01001
01001
020100
020100
020100
020100
020100
020100
020100
020100
020100
020100
020100
020100
020100
020100
020100
020100
020100
020100
020100
020100
020100
020100
020100
020100
020100
020100
020100
020100
020100
020100
64.
64.
64.
64.
64.
64.
64.
64.
64.
64.
64.
64.
64.
64.
64.
64.
64.
64.
64.
64.
64.
64.
64.
64.
64.
64.
64.
64.
64.
64.
4
4
4
5
4
4
4
3
4
4
4
4
4
5
4
4
3
3
4
5
4
4
1
3
8
4
4
5
4
4
138E-08
555E-08
046E-08
048E-08
475E-08
562E-08
667E-08
947E-08
443E-08
523E-08
074E-08
471E-08
780E-08
378E-08
444E-08
585E-08
965E-08
658E-08
369E-08
469E-08
060E-08
108E-08
229E-07
945E-08
885E-08
507E-08
452E-08
223E-08
960E-08
687E-08
5.250E-07
6.957E-07
5.612E-07
7.003E-07
6.665E-07
6.827E-07
7.022E-07
5.435E-07
6.723E-07
5.613E-07
5.780E-07
6.714E-07
7.123E-07
8.249E-07
6.792E-07
6.816E-07
5.646E-07
5.838E-07
5.232E-07
7.289E-07
5.755E-07
5.834E-07
6.785E-07
5.227E-07
6.372E-07
6.892E-07
6.700E-07
1.059E-06
7.572E-07
7.045E-07
SC3
2.101E-06
2.590E-06
2.937E-06
2.951E-06
3.174E-06
3.321E-06
3.431E-06
3.763E-06
3.680E-06
3.553E-06
3.717E-06
4.429E-06
4.327E-06
4.333E-06
4.738E-06
4.718E-06
4.944E-06
5.156E-06
5.496E-06
5.792E-06
5.550E-06
5.656E-06
6.440E-06
6.572E-06
6.835E-06
6.891E-06
7.401E-06
7.195E-06
8.390E-06
9.575E-06
SC4 SC5 SC6
3
5
4
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
1
5
5
6
5
5
7
5
4
5
1
1
5
6
5
5
5
8
6
5
951E-07
227E-07
697E-07
363E-07
116E-07
161E-07
411E-07
542E-07
076E-07
966E-07
168E-06
179E-07
488E-07
338E-07
349E-07
714E-07
081E-07
129E-07
528E-07
587E-07
146E-06
217E-06
382E-07
752E-07
040E-07
365E-07
111E-07
441E-07
169E-07
377E-07
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
990E-06
157E-06
182E-06
161E-06
103E-06
132E-06
213E-06
069E-06
096E-06
311E-06
212E-06
128E-06
253E-06
169E-06
109E-06
162E-06
096E-06
137E-06
206E-06
179E-06
127E-06
156E-06
179E-06
271E-06
104E-06
162E-06
092E-06
101E-06
273E-06
177E-06
5.053E-06
6.011E-06
6.191E-06
6.399E-06
6.499E-06
6.697E-06
6.934E-06
6.968E-06
7.000E-06
7.067E-06
7.718E-06
7.790E-06
7.888E-06
8.013E-06
8.105E-06
8.176E-06
8.350E-06
8.426E-06
8.725E-06
9.314E-06
9.438E-06
9.656E-06
9.959E-06
1.008E-05
1.017E-05
1.033E-05
1.072E-05
1.125E-05
1.209E-05
1.304E-05
Figure 60. Example output of HAPEM6 calculated risks for one tract for 1999 benzene.
After calculating the risks, the tract level risks for each HAP, risk for each carcinogen class, and
risk across all HAPs were summarized at the same levels as done for the ASPEN and HAPEM5
outputs. To calculate the average risks at a particular summary level (national, state, or county),
the following steps were done:
• Substitute risk estimates in a similar manner as done for HAPEM concentrations (see
Table 50):
o For 2015, 2020, and 2030 for base and control risks, the background risks were
set equal to the 1999 background risks at the census tract level.
149
-------
o For a given year, for each HAP, except benzene, the control case stationary risks
were set equal to the corresponding year and HAP's base stationary risks at the
census tract level.
o For all HAPs for 2030, the stationary risks for the base case were set equal to the
2020 stationary base risks. For all HAPs except benzene, the 2030 stationary
control concentrations were set equal to the 2020 base stationary risks. For
benzene for 2030, the stationary control risks were set equal to the 2020
stationary control risks. All substitutions were at the census tract level.
o For a given year, for the metals, POM, and naphthalene, the control case onroad
and nonroad risks were set equal to the corresponding year and HAP's base
onroad and nonroad risks at the census tract level.
• Merged the tract populations for HAPEM6 with the original risk data (as shown in
Figure 60) and recalculate the 30 replicate populations for each tract. This was done
because of formatting or rounding in HAPEM6 that resulted in replicates with a
population less than one being shown as zero population. Only tracts with nonzero
populations were merged. All tracts with total population of zero were dropped since
they would not impact the average risk calculations.
• After merging in the unrounded tract populations and recalculating the replicate
populations, each source category risk (SCI, SC2, etc.) was multiplied by the replicate
population for each tract.
• After multiplying risks by populations, the products were summed together for each
source category for the appropriate summary level (national, state, county, etc.) and
divided by the total population for the summary level:
« 30
y y
L-i L-i
i=\i=\
Population ]YEAR]
Z Z Population , Y
i = \j=\ 1,J,I
where Avg.Risksc#,YEAR,LEVEL,coNis the average risk for source category # (1 through 6), year
(1999, 2015, 2020, or 2030), LEVEL (national, national urban/rural, national RFG/non-RFG,
state, state urban/rural, state RFG/non-RFG, or county), n=number of tracts for the average level,
j represents the number of replicates (30), and CON is base or controlled risk.
Risky;sc#,YEAR,LEVEL,coN is the jth replicate risk for tract i and Population;^ YEAR is the jth replicate
population for tract i for year YEAR.
150
-------
Note that the populations were year specific. HAPEM6 used a year 2000 population in
processing and post-processing. Projected populations for 2015, 2020, and 2030 were available
at the county level from Woods and Poole (www.woodsandpoole.com) for the contiguous 48
states for BenMAP (Abt, 2005). National populations were:
1) 1999: 281,371,447
2) 2015: 318,742,833
3) 2020: 331,530,902
4) 2030: 357,733,724
The population for 1999 was calculated from the HAPEM6 population file while the other years'
populations were from the Woods and Poole data. For Alaska and Hawaii, where no projected
populations were available, the future year populations were set equal to the HAPEM6
populations.
To allocate the projected county emissions to tract level for use in calculations, the ratio of the
tract to county population for the original 2000 populations was calculated and multiplied by the
projected county level population to give a projected tract population. This method assumes
growth of population but that the proportion of county population contained by a tract remained
unchanged.
Populations were also used in calculating the distribution of risks for each summary level. In
theory, the distributions could be calculated on assigning a risk for each individual in a summary
level (all people for national summaries for example). However, this was not practical within
SAS® as this resulted in large datasets and long computing times. A methodology to
approximate the "brute force" approach was developed:
• For a summary level, i.e. national level, the percentile levels for the population were
calculated as:
Population5th = PopulationJEAR LEVEL * 0.05 (26)
Populationwth = PopulationYEARLEVEL *0.10 (27)
Population25th = PopulationYEAR LEVEL * 0.25 (28)
Population5mh = PopulationJEARLEVEL * 0.50 (29)
Population^ = PopulationYEARLEVEL *0.75 (30)
Population^ = PopulationYEARLEVEL *0.90 (31)
Population95th = PopulationYEAR LEVEL * 0.95 (32)
151
-------
where YEAR and LEVEL are as defined above. Note that each population was rounded to the
nearest whole number for counting purposes.
• After calculating the percentile populations, the replicate tract populations were rounded
up to the next whole number. This was done for counting purposes.
• If the replicate population was less than one, i.e. tracts with less than 30 people, the
replicate population was reset to one person. This is because the distributions are
assumed to be based on individuals, not portions of an individual.
• Next for each replicate, a loop was executed within SAS®, starting at one and ending at
the rounded replicate population. Within the loop, a running total of population was
calculated. As the loop executed, the running population was incremented by one person.
• If the running total equaled any of the percentile population, the risk associated with the
tract replicate being processed was output to a dataset. The distributions were then
merged with the average risks for the appropriate summary level.
All calculations above, average and distributions, were done for each HAP, each carcinogen
class, and total risk (all HAPs). Once statistics were calculated for each year and level (county,
state, etc.) they were merged together. Maps of county median risk were generated for several
HAPs and total risk. National average risks by HAP, carcinogen class, and across all HAPs are
shown in Table 56 for base risks and Table 57 for control risks. Box and whisker plots for 1999,
2015, 2020, and 2030 are shown in Figures 61, 62, 63, and 64 respectively. Maps of county
median benzene risk are shown in Figures 65 through 71. Figure 72 shows the trend of total risk
(all HAPs and sources, including background) with the relative contributions of each cancer
HAP.
Full risk summaries can be found in risks.xls. Maps for acetaldehyde, benzene, 1,3-butadiene,
and total risk can be found in acetaldehyde_risk.ppt, benzene_risk.ppt, butadiene_risk.ppt, and
total_risk.ppt. All summaries and maps can be found in the MSAT rule docket, EPA-HQ-OAR-
2005-0036.
152
-------
Table 56. Base national average risks for 1999, 2015, 2020, and 2030 by HAP, carcinogen class and across all HAPs. HAPs are
grouped by carcinogen class. Total includes background risks.
HAP
1,3-Butadiene
Benzene
Chromium VI
Nickel
A Class
Formaldehyde
Bl Class
Acetaldehyde
POM
B2 Class
Naphthalene
C Class
Total Risk: All
HAPs
Year
1999
Stationary
5. 29x1 (T7
1.13x10""
1.48x10""
1.46x10''
3.28x10""
6.32xlO"10
6.32xlO"10
1.66xlO"7
1.24x10-"
1.41x10-"
1.34x10""
1.34x10-"
6.03x10'"
Mobile
2.59x10-"
8.09x10'"
2.41xlO"7
1.04xlO"s
1.09xlQ-5
4.46xlO"9
4.46xlQ-9
2.25x10""
1.41x10-'
2.39x10-"
7.75xlO"7
7.75xlQ-7
1.41xlQ-5
Total
4.43x10'"
l.lSxlO'5
1.72x10""
1.56x10-'
1.82xlQ-5
8.69xlO"9
8.69xlQ-9
3.39x10""
1.38x10""
4.77x10""
2.11x10""
2.11x10""
2.50xlO"5
2015
Stationary
4. 96x1 0"7
1.23x10""
1.92x10""
1.62x10"'
3.80x10""
7.29xlO"10
7.29xlO"10
1.71xlO"7
1.40x10""
1.57x10""
1.56x10""
1.56x10""
6.93x10""
Mobile
1.19x10""
4.48x10""
S.lOxlO"7
1.25xlO"s
5.99x10""
2.12xlO"9
2.12xlO"9
1.29x10""
8.63xlO"s
1.38x10""
4. 82x1 0"7
4.82xlO"7
7.86x10""
Total
2.97x10""
8.33x10""
2.23x10""
1.75x10"'
1.37xlO"5
6.43xlO"9
6.43xlO"9
2.43x10""
1.48x10""
3.91x10""
2.04x10""
2.04x10""
1.97xlO"5
2020
Stationary
4. 88x1 0"7
1.28x10""
2.15x10""
1.77x10"'
4.09x10""
7.82xlO"10
7.82xlO"10
1.77xlO"7
1.46x10""
1.63x10""
1.65x10""
1.65x10""
7.38x10""
Mobile
1.23x10""
4.56x10""
3.34xlO"7
1.33xlO"8
6.14x10""
2.14xlO"9
2.14xlO"9
1.31x10""
8.81xlO"s
1.40x10""
4.88xlO"7
4.88xlO"7
8.03x10""
Total
3.00x10""
8.45x10""
2.49x10""
1.90x10"'
1.41xlO"5
6.49xlO"9
6.49xlO"9
2.46x10""
1.55x10""
4.00x10""
2.14x10""
2.14x10""
2.03xlO"5
2030
Stationary
4.67xlO"7
1.27x10""
2.13x10""
1.75x10"'
4.04x10""
7.82xlO"10
7.82xlO"10
1.77xlO"7
1.47x10""
1.65x10""
1.63x10""
1.63x10""
7.32x10""
Mobile
1.42x10""
5.24x10""
3.93xlO"7
1.51xlO"s
7.07x10""
2.41xlO"9
2.41xlO"9
1.50x10""
1.01x10"'
1.60x10""
5.59xlO"7
5.59xlO"7
9.24x10""
Total
3.16x10""
9.13x10""
2.52x10""
1.90x10"'
l.SOxlO"5
6.76xlO"9
6.76xlO"9
2.65x10""
1.57x10""
4.22x10""
2.19x10""
2.19x10""
2.14xlO"5
153
-------
Table 57. Control national average risks for 2015, 2020, and 2030 by HAP, carcinogen class and across all HAPs. HAPs are grouped
by carcinogen class. Total includes background.
HAP
1,3 -Butadiene
Benzene
Chromium VI
Nickel
A Class
Formaldehyde
Bl Class
Acetaldehyde
POM
B2 Class
Naphthalene
C Class
Total Risk:
All HAPs
Stationary
4.96xlO"7
1.22xlO"6
1.92xlO"6
1.62xlO"7
3.79xlO"6
7.29xlO"10
7.29xlO"10
1.71xlO"7
1.40xlO"6
1.57xlO"6
1.56xlO"6
1.56xlO"6
6.92xlO"6
2015
Mobile
1.04xlO"6
3.47xlO"6
3.10xlO"7
1.25xlO"8
4.83xlO"6
1.93xlO"9
1.93xlO"9
l.llxlO"6
8.63xlO"8
1.20xlO"6
4.82xlO"7
4.82xlO"7
6.51xlO"6
Total
2.83xlO"6
7.30xlO"6
2.23xlO"6
1.75xlO"7
1.25xlO"5
6.23xlO"9
6.23xlO"9
2.25xlO"6
1.48xlO"6
3.73xlO"6
2.04xlO"6
2.04xlO"6
1.83xlO"5
Stationary
4.88xlO"7
1.26xlO"6
2.15xlO"6
1.77xlO"7
4.08xlO"6
7.82xlO"10
7.82xlO"10
1.77xlO"7
1.46xlO"6
1.63xlO"6
1.65xlO"6
1.65xlO"6
7.36xlO"6
Year
2020
Mobile
l.OOxlO"6
3.21xlO"6
3.34xlO"7
1.33xlO"8
4.56xlO"6
1.83xlO"9
1.83xlO"9
1.03xlO"6
8.81xlO"8
1.12xlO"6
4.88xlO"7
4.88xlO"7
6.16xlO"6
Total
2.77xlO"6
7.09xlO"6
2.49xlO"6
1.90xlO"7
1.25xlO"5
6.19xlO"9
6.19xlO"9
2.17xlO"6
1.55xlO"6
3.72xlO"6
2.14xlO"6
2.14xlO"6
1.84xlO"5
Stationary
4.67xlO"7
1.25xlO"6
2.13xlO"6
1.75xlO"7
4.02xlO"6
7.82xlO"10
7.82xlO"10
.77xlO"7
.47xlO"6
.65xlO"6
.63xlO"6
.63xlO"6
7.30xlO"6
2030
Mobile
1.05xlO"6
3.28xlO"6
3.93xlO"7
l.SlxlO"8
4.74xlO"6
.93xlO"9
.93xlO"9
.06xlO"6
.OlxlO"7
.16xlO"6
5.59xlO"7
5.59xlO"7
6.45xlO"6
Total
2.78xlO"6
7.15xlO"6
2.52xlO"6
1.90xlO"7
1.26xlO"5
6.28xlO"9
6.28xlO"9
2.20xlO"6
1.57xlO"6
3.77xlO"6
2.19xlO"6
2.19xlO"6
1.86xlO"5
154
-------
10
95th Percentile i
75th Percentile
Median
25th Percentile
5th Percentile ' -5
10
10
1999 HAPEM Risk Distributions for base strategy
10
•
,/ / ' S x
Figure 61. 1999 base national HAPEM6 risk distributions.
155
-------
10
2015 Risk Distributions for base (white) and controls (gray)
95th Percentile |
75th Percentile
Median
25th Percentile y
5th Percentile '
10
10
10
10
Figure 62. 2015 base (white) and control (gray) national HAPEM6 risk distributions.
156
-------
10
2020 Risk Distributions for base (white) and controls (gray)
95th Percentile |
75th Percentile
Median
25th Percentile y
5th Percentile '
10
10
10
10
Figure 63. 2020 base (white) and control (gray) national HAPEM6 risk distributions.
157
-------
10
95th Percentile |
75th Percentile
Median
25th Percentile y
5th Percentile '
10
10
10
10
2030 Risk Distributions for base (white) and controls (gray)
Figure 64. 2030 base (white) and control (gray) national HAPEM6 risk distributions.
158
-------
Figure 65. 1999 base county level median total (all sources and background) risk for benzene.
159
-------
Figure 66. 2015 base county level median total (all sources and background) risk for benzene.
160
-------
Figure 67. 2015 control county level median total (all sources and background) risk for benzene.
161
-------
Figure 68. 2020 base county level median total (all sources and background) risk for benzene.
162
-------
Figure 69. 2020 control county level median total (all sources and background) risk for benzene.
163
-------
Figure 70. 2030 base county level median total (all sources and background) risk for benzene.
164
-------
Figure 71. 2030 control county level median total (all sources and background) risk for benzene.
165
-------
3.00E-05
2.50E-05
2.00E-05
.2 1.50E-05
2
l.OOE-05
5.00E-06
O.OOE+00
DPOM
• Nickel
• Naphthalene
D Chromium VI
• Benzene
D Acetaldehyde
• 1,3-Butadiene
1999 2015 2015 2020 2020 2030 2030
Base Base Control Base Control Base Control
Figure 72. Total risk for each year and control strategy with HAP contributions.
166
-------
In addition to calculating averages and distributions, the national and state risk incidences were
calculated for each HAP, carcinogen class, and total risk. Incidences were the sum of all
individual risks across the country or state. The incidences were calculated by multiplying the
tract populations by the risks calculated in HAPEM6 post-processing. Basically, the incidences
were the sums calculated in the numerator of Equation 25. Table 58 shows the national
incidences for each HAP, carcinogen class, and across all HAPs for total risk (all sources) for
1999, 2015, 2020, and 2030 for base and controlled results. Figure 73 shows the contribution of
each HAP to the total (all HAPs) risk for all source categories. Full incidence summaries can be
found in risk_incidences.xls in the MSAT rule docket, EPA-HQ-OAR-2005-0036.
Table 58. National total risk incidences (all sources) by HAP, carcinogen class, and across all
HAPs.
Pollutant
1,3 -Butadiene
Benzene
Chromium VI
Nickel
A Class
Formaldehyde
B Class
Acetaldehyde
POM
B2 Class
Naphthalene
C Class
Total Risk: All HAPs
Year
1999
Base
1.25xl03
3.33xl03
4.83xl02
4.40X101
S.llxlO3
2.44x10°
2.44x10°
9.53xl02
3.88xl02
1.34xl03
5.95xl02
5.95xl02
7.05xl03
2015
Base
9.48xl02
2.65xl03
7.10xl02
5.56X101
4.37xl03
2.05x10°
2.05x10°
7.75xl02
4.73xl02
1.25xl03
6.50xl02
6.50xl02
6.27xl03
Control
9.01xl02
2.33xl03
7.10xl02
5.56X101
3.99xl03
1.99x10°
1.99x10°
7.17xl02
4.73xl02
1.19xl03
6.50xl02
6.50xl02
5.84xl03
2020
Base
9.95xl02
2.80xl03
8.24xl02
6.29X101
4.68xl03
2.15x10°
2.15x10°
8.14xl02
5.13xl02
1.33xl03
7.09xl02
7.09xl02
6.72xl03
Control
9.19xl02
2.35xl03
8.24xl02
6.29X101
4.16xl03
2.05x10°
2.05x10°
7.20xl02
5.13xl02
1.23xl03
7.09xl02
7.09xl02
6.10xl03
2030
Base
1.13xl03
3.27xl03
9.02xl02
6.80X101
5.36xl03
2.42x10°
2.42x10°
9.47xl02
5.62xl02
1.51xl03
7.82xl02
7.82xl02
7.66xl03
Control
9.96xl02
2.56xl03
9.02xl02
6.80X101
4.52xl03
2.25x10°
2.25x10°
7.87xl02
5.62xl02
1.35xl03
7.82xl02
7.82xl02
6.66xl03
167
-------
DPOM
• Nickel
• Naphthalene
D Chromium VI
• Benzene
D Acetaldehyde
• 1,3-Butadiene
1999 2015 Base 2015 2020 Base 2020 2030 Base 2030
Control Control Control
Figure 73. Contribution of individual HAP incidences (70 year lifetime) to total risk (all HAPs
and all sources).
8.2 Non-cancer calculations
Tract level non-cancer hazard quotients (HQ) for each HAP were calculated by dividing, for
each HAP and each source sector, the exposure concentration by the RfC. The output was
similar in format to the risk as shown in Figure 60, except for hazard quotients instead of risk.
The methodology in calculating distributions and averages was exactly the same as for cancer
risks with substitutions as done for exposure concentrations and risks. Statistics for individual
HAPs were calculated, as well as for hazard indices (HI, sum of individual HAP HQ) for organ
systems shown in Table 55.
National average hazard quotients for HAPs and hazard indices for organ systems for the base
scenarios are shown in Table 59. Controlled hazard quotients and hazard indices are shown in
Table 60. Box and whisker plots of the distributions for HAPs and the respiratory system are
shown in Figures 74 through 77 for 1999, 2015, 2020, and 2030 respectively. Figures 78-84
show the county median hazard quotients for benzene for 1999, 2015, 2020, and 2030. Finally,
in Figure 84, the HAP contributions to the respiratory hazard indices for each year are shown.
Full non-cancer summaries can be found in noncancer.xls. Maps for acetaldehyde, acrolein,
benzene, 1,3-butadiene, formaldehyde, and respiratory HI can be found in acetaldehyde_hq.ppt,
168
-------
acrolein_hq.ppt, benzene_hq.ppt, butadiene_hq.ppt, formaldehyde_hq.ppt, and resp_hq.ppt. All
summaries and maps can be found in the MSAT rule docket, EPA-HQ-OAR-2005-0036.
169
-------
Table 59. Base national average hazard quotients (HAPs) and hazard indices (organ systems) for 1999, 2015, 2020, and 2030. Total
includes background.
HAP
1,3-Butadiene
Acetaldehyde
Acrolein
Benzene
Chromium VI
Ethyl Benzene
Formaldehyde
Hexane
MTBE
Manganese
Naphthalene
Nickel
Styrene
Toluene
Xylenes
Year
1999
Stationary
s.sixicr3
8.40xlO'3
1.43x10°
4.83xlO'3
1.23X10'3
9.69xl(r5
LlVxlCT2
2.17X10'3
2.14x10°
3. 96x1 0'2
l.SlxlO'2
1.40xlO'2
3.66x10°
2.27xlO'3
5. 85x1 0'3
Mobile
4. 32x1 0'2
l.MxlO'1
4.73x10°
3. 46x1 0'2
2.01X10'4
4.51xlO'4
8.28xlO'2
1.94xlO'3
3. OOxl O'4
2.73X10'4
7.60x1 0'3
9. 97x1 0'4
4.12x10°
6.93xlO'3
1.70X10'2
Total
7.39x1 0'2
1.71x10-'
6.16x10°
5. 06x1 O'2
1.43X10'3
5. 48x1 0'4
l.eixlO'1
4.1 1x1 0'3
3.21xlO'4
3.99xlO'2
2.07xlO'2
l.SOxlO'2
7.78x1 0'5
9.20xlO'3
2.43xlO'2
2015
Stationary
8.26x1 0'3
8.66xlO'3
1.28x10°
5.26xlO'3
1.60xlQ-3
1.15xlO'4
1.35xlO'2
2.45xlO'3
2.27x1 0°
5.20X10'2
1.53xlO'2
1.56xlO'2
4.62xlO'5
2.71xlO'3
7. 37x1 0'3
Mobile
1.98xlO'2
6.53xlO'2
2.35x10°
1.91xlO'2
2.58X10'4
2.27xlO'4
3. 94x1 0'2
l.OSxlO'3
7.63x10°
3.61X10'4
4.73xlO'3
1.20xlO'3
2.05xlO'5
3. 45x1 0'3
8.41X10'3
Total
4.96xlO'2
1.23X10'1
3.63x10°
3.56xlO'2
1.86X10'3
3. 42x1 0'4
1.19X10'1
3. 48x1 0'3
9.90x10°
5. 24x1 0'2
2.00xlO'2
1.68xlO'2
6.66x10°
6.16xlO'3
1.72X10'2
2020
Stationary
8.13xlO'3
8.91xlO'3
1.27x10°
5.46xlO'3
1.79X10'3
1.26X10'4
1.45xlO'2
2.63xlO'3
2.35x10°
5.79xlO'2
1.62X10'2
1.70xlO'2
5.25x10°
2. 98x1 0'3
S.llxlO'3
Mobile
2.05x1 0'2
6.63xlO'2
2.43x10°
1.95xlO'2
2.78X10'4
2.26xlO'4
3. 97x1 0'2
9.73xlO'4
6.81x10°
3.93xlO'4
4.78xlO'3
1.28xlO'3
2.11x10°
3. 47x1 0'3
8.43X10'3
Total
S.OOxlO'2
1.24X10'1
3.69x10°
3.61xlO'2
2.07xlO'3
3.52xlO'4
1.20X10'1
3.61xlO'3
9.16x10°
5.83X10'2
2.10xlO'2
1.83xlO'2
7.36x10°
6.45xlO'3
l.SOxlO'2
2030
Stationary
7.78xlO'3
8.93xlO'3
1.26x10°
5.43xlO'3
1.77X10'3
1.24xlO'4
1.45xlO'2
2.59xlO'3
2.32x10°
5.89X10'2
1.60X10'2
1.68xlO'2
5.30x10°
2.97xlO'3
8.02X10'3
Mobile
2. 36x1 0'2
7. 59x1 0'2
2.78x10°
2.24x1 0'2
3.27xlO'4
2. 57x1 0'4
4.48xlO'2
1.07X10'3
7.06x10°
4.72xlO'4
5.48xlO'3
1.46xlO'3
2.45x10°
3.95xlO'3
9.58xlO'3
Total
5.26xlO'2
1.34X10'1
4.04x10°
3.90xlO'2
2.10X10'3
S.SlxlO'4
1.25X10'1
3.66xlO'3
9.38x10°
5.94X10'2
2.14xlO'2
1.83xlO'2
7.74x10°
6.93xlO'3
1.90X10'2
Organ Systems
Developmental
Immune
Kidney
Liver System
Neurological
Ocular
Reproductive
Respiratory
9.69x10°
1.89xlO'2
2.14x10°
2.14x10°
4. 99x1 0'2
2.14x10°
S.SlxlO'3
1.48x10°
4.51xlO'4
3.56xlO'2
3. OOxl O'4
3. OOxl O'4
2.62xlO'2
3. OOxl O'4
4.32xlO'2
4.94x10°
5. 48x1 0'4
6.57xlO'2
3.21xlO'4
3.21xlO'4
7.75xlO'2
3.21xlO'4
7.39xlO'2
6.54x10°
l.lSxlO'4
2.08xlO'2
2.27x1 0'5
2.27x1 0'5
6.46x1 0'2
2.27x1 0'5
8.26x1 0'3
1.34x10°
2. 27x1 0'4
2.03xlO'2
7.63xlO'5
7.63xlO'5
1.33xlO'2
7.63xlO'5
1.98xlO'2
2.46x10°
3. 42x1 0'4
5. 24x1 0'2
9.90x10°
9.90x10°
7.93xlO'2
9.90x10°
4.96xlO'2
3.92x10°
1.26xlO'4
2.24x1 0'2
2.35x10°
2.35x10°
7.17xlO'2
2.35x10°
8.13xlO'3
1.33x10°
2.26xlO'4
2.08xlO'2
6.81x10°
6.81x10°
1.33xlO'2
6.81x10°
2.05xlO'2
2.54x10°
3.52xlO'4
5.44xlO'2
9.16x10°
9.16x10°
8.64xlO'2
9.16x10°
S.OOxlO'2
3.99x10°
1.24xlO'4
2.22xlO'2
2.32x10°
2.32x10°
7.26xlO'2
2.32x10°
7.78xlO'3
1.32x10°
2. 57x1 0'4
2.39xlO'2
7.06x10°
7.06x10°
l.SlxlO'2
7.06x10°
2. 36x1 0'2
2.92x10°
3.81xlO'4
5.73xlO'2
9.38x10°
9.38x10°
8.91xlO'2
9.38x10°
5.26xlO'2
4.35x10°
170
-------
Table 60. Control national average hazard quotients (HAPs) and hazard indices (organ systems) for 2015, 2020, and 2030. Total
includes background.
HAP
1,3 -Butadiene
Acetaldehyde
Acrolein
Benzene
Chromium VI
Ethyl Benzene
Formaldehyde
Hexane
MTBE
Manganese
Naphthalene
Nickel
Styrene
Toluene
Xylenes
Year
2015
Stationary
8.26xlO"3
8.66xlO"3
1.28x10°
5.19xlO"3
1.60xlO"3
1.15xlO"4
1.35xlO"2
2.45xlO"3
2.27xlO"5
5.20xlO"2
1.53xlO"2
1.56xlO"2
4.62xlO"5
2.71xlO"3
7.37xlO"3
Mobile
1.74xlO"2
5.60xlO"2
2.09x10°
1.48xlO"2
2.58xlO"4
1.97xlO"4
3.57xlO"2
9.26xlO"4
7.28xlO"5
3.61xlO"4
4.73xlO"3
1.20xlO"3
1.70xlO"5
2.94xlO"3
7.27xlO"3
Total
4.71xlO"2
1.14X10"1
3.38x10°
3.12xlO"2
1.86xlO"3
3.12xlO"4
1.16X10"1
3.38xlO"3
9.55xlO"5
5.24xlO"2
2.00xlO"2
1.68xlO"2
6.32xlO"5
5.65xlO"3
1.61xlO"2
2020
Stationary
8.13xlO"3
8.91xlO"3
1.27x10°
5.39xlO"3
1.79xlO"3
1.26xlO"4
1.45xlO"2
2.63xlO"3
2.35xlO"5
5.79xlO"2
1.62xlO"2
1.70xlO"2
5.25xlO"5
2.98xlO"3
S.llxlO"3
Mobile
1.67xlO"2
5.19xlO"2
2.02x10°
1.37xlO"2
2.78xlO"4
l.SlxlO"4
3.40xlO"2
8.27xlO"4
6.36xlO"5
3.93xlO"4
4.78xlO"3
1.28xlO"3
1.57xlO"5
2.67xlO"3
6.68xlO"3
Total
4.62xlO"2
LlOxlO"1
3.29x10°
3.03xlO"2
2.07xlO"3
3.07xlO"4
LlSxlO"1
3.46xlO"3
8.71xlO"5
5.83xlO"2
2.10xlO"2
1.83xlO"2
6.82xlO"5
5.65xlO"3
1.62xlO"2
2030
Stationary
7.78xlO"3
8.93xlO"3
1.26x10°
5.36xlO"3
1.77xlO"3
1.24xlO"4
1.45xlO"2
2.59xlO"3
2.32xlO"5
5.89xlO"2
1.60xlO"2
1.68xlO"2
5.30xlO"5
2.97xlO"3
8.02xlO"3
Mobile
1.74xlO"2
5.34xlO"2
2.13x10°
1.40xlO"2
3.27xlO"4
1.86xlO"4
3.58xlO"2
8.52xlO"4
6.45xlO"5
4.72xlO"4
5.48xlO"3
1.46xlO"3
1.58xlO"5
2.70xlO"3
6.83xlO"3
Total
4.64xlO"2
l.llxlO"1
3.39x10°
3.05xlO"2
2.10xlO"3
3.09xlO"4
1.17X10"1
3.44xlO"3
8.77xlO"5
5.94xlO"2
2.14xlO"2
1.83xlO"2
6.88xlO"5
5.67xlO"3
1.63xlO"2
Organ Systems
Developmental
Immune
Kidney
Liver System
Neurological
Ocular System
Reproductive
Respiratory
1.15xlO"4
2.08xlO"2
2.27xlO"5
2.27xlO"5
6.46xlO"2
2.27xlO"5
8.26xlO"3
1.34x10°
1.97xlO"4
1.60xlO"2
7.28xlO"5
7.28xlO"5
1.15xlO"2
7.28xlO"5
1.74xlO"2
2.19x10°
3.12xlO"4
4.80xlO"2
9.55xlO"5
9.55xlO"5
7.76xlO"2
9.55xlO"5
4.71xlO"2
3.65x10°
1.26xlO"4
2.24xlO"2
2.35xlO"5
2.35xlO"5
7.17xlO"2
2.35xlO"5
8.13xlO"3
1.33x10°
l.SlxlO"4
1.50xlO"2
6.36xlO"5
6.36xlO"5
1.06xlO"2
6.36xlO"5
1.67xlO"2
2.12x10°
3.07xlO"4
4.85xlO"2
8.71xlO"5
8.71xlO"5
8.37xlO"2
8.71xlO"5
4.62xlO"2
3.56x10°
1.24xlO"4
2.22xlO"2
2.32xlO"5
2.32xlO"5
7.26xlO"2
2.32xlO"5
7.78xlO"3
1.32x10°
1.86xlO"4
1.55xlO"2
6.45xlO"5
6.45xlO"5
1.09xlO"2
6.45xlO"5
1.74xlO"2
2.23x10°
3.09xlO"4
4.88xlO"2
8.77xlO"5
8.77xlO"5
8.49xlO"2
8.77xlO"5
4.64xlO"2
3.67x10°
171
-------
10
95th Percentile
75th Percentile
Median
25th Percentile v
5th Percentile '
10
10
10
10
10
-5
10
-6
10
1999 HAPEM HQ and HI Distributions for base strategy
-------
10
95th Percentile
75th Percentile
Median
25th Percentile v
5th Percentile '
10
10
10
10
10
-5
10
-6
10
2015 HQ and HI Distributions for base (white) and controls (gray)
Figure 75. 2015 base (white) and control (gray) national HAPEM6 hazard quotient (HAPs) and
hazard index (respiratory system) distributions.
173
-------
10
95th Percentile
75th Percentile
Median
25th Percentile v
5th Percentile '
10
10
10
10
10
-5
10
-6
10
2020 HQ and HI Distributions for base (white) and controls (gray)
Figure 76. 2020 base (white) and control (gray) national HAPEM6 hazard quotient (HAPs) and
hazard index (respiratory system) distributions.
174
-------
10
95th Percentile
75th Percentile
Median
25th Percentile v
5th Percentile '
10
10
10
10
10
-5
10
-6
10
2030 HQ and HI Distributions for base (white) and controls (gray)
<
Figure 77. 2030 base (white) and control (gray) national HAPEM6 hazard quotient (HAPs) and
hazard index (respiratory system) distributions.
175
-------
Figure 78. 1999 base county level median total (all sources and background) hazard quotient for
benzene.
176
-------
Figure 79. 2015 base county level median total (all sources and background) hazard quotient for
benzene.
177
-------
Figure 80. 2015 control county level median total (all sources and background) hazard quotient
for benzene.
178
-------
Figure 81. 2020 base county level median total (all sources and background) hazard quotient for
benzene.
179
-------
Figure 82. 2020 control county level median total (all sources and background) hazard quotient
for benzene.
180
-------
Figure 83. 2030 base county level median total (all sources and background) hazard quotient for
benzene.
181
-------
Figure 84. 2030 control county level median total (all sources and background) hazard quotient
for benzene.
8.3 Cancer and non-cancer population bin calculations
8.3.1 Using 30 replicates per tract
In addition to calculating cancer risk and hazard quotients and indices, population totals for
several cancer risk bins for total risk and benzene were calculated as were hazard quotient bins
for benzene and hazard index bins for the respiratory system. Populations were calculated for
each source category and year. For 1999, the population file used for HAPEM6 was used. For
2015, 2020, and 2030, projected populations as described in Section 8.1 were used, using the
same methodology as for risk and non-cancer calculations. Each tract population was divided by
30 and assigned to each of the 30 replicates per tract. Next each risk or hazard quotient or index
was assigned a bin as listed below. For risk, four bins were used:
• Risk>lxlO"4
• lx!0'5
-------
For hazard quotients or hazard index, four bins were used as well:
• HQorHI>10
• l
-------
Table 61. Populations by source category, year, and inventory scenario for total risk (all HAPs).
Source
Category
Major
Area&
Other
Onroad
Nonroad
Background
Total
Risk Bin
Risk > IxlO"4
lx!0"5< Risk < IxlO"4
lx!0"6< Risk < IxlO"5
Risk < IxlO"6
Total Population
Risk > IxlO"4
lxlO"5< Risk < IxlO"4
lxlO"6< Risk < IxlO"5
Risk < IxlO"6
Total Population
Risk > IxlO"4
lxlO"5< Risk < IxlO"4
lxlO"6< Risk < IxlO"5
Risk < IxlO"6
Total Population
Risk > IxlO"4
lxlO"5< Risk < IxlO"4
lxlO"6< Risk < IxlO"5
Risk < IxlO"6
Total Population
Risk > IxlO"4
lxlO"5< Risk < IxlO"4
lxlO"6< Risk < IxlO"5
Risk < IxlO"6
Total Population
Risk > IxlO"4
lxlO"5< Risk < IxlO"4
lxlO"6
-------
Table 62. Populations by source category, year, and inventory scenario for the respiratory system.
Source
Major
Area &
OtTi^r
Onroad
Nonroad
Background
Total
HI Bin
HI>10
110
110
110
KHK10
O.KHK1
HKO.l
Total Population
HI>10
110
1
-------
3, Major Sources
1
o 20° '
£ 150 •
3
O.
0 100 •
50 •
:
'-
'-
—
--
—
=
—
=
1 — 1
—
—
I — 1
-
-
1999 2015 2015 2020 2020 2030 2030
base control base control base control
C Onroad Sources
-?
O
a 250 •
3
50 -
• - «
~
—
—
—
—
•
—
'
-n-
—
-
1999 2015 2015 2020 2020 2030 2030
base control base control base control
ERisk < 1E.06
DlE.06<=Risk< 1E.05
DlE.05<=Risk< 1E.04
• Risk >= 1E.04
MRisk < 1E.06
DlE.06<=Risk< 1E.05
DlE.05<=Risk< 1E.04
• Risk >= 1E.04
b
a
a 200 •
JS 150 •
3
£ 100 •
50 •
Area & Other Sources
•
:
-
'-
~\
-
•
-
--
•
:
ERisk < 1E.06
DlE.06<=Risk< 1E.05
DlE.05<=Risk< 1E.04
• Risk >= 1E.04
1999 2015 2015 2020 2020 2030 2030
base control base control base control
d
-?
o
•a 250 •
3
50 -
Nonroad Sources
•
P
•
•
•
—
•
•
•
—
—
•
«
•
—
—
-
BRisk < 1E.06
DlE.06<=Risk< 1E.05
DlE.05<=Risk< 1E.04
• Risk >= 1E.04
1999 2015 2015 2020 2020 2030 2030
base control base control base control
Figure 85. Populations of risk bins for total risk (all HAPs) by year and scenario for a) major
sources, b) area & other sources, c) onroad sources and d) nonroad sources.
186
-------
a
Background
400
350
V2
a 300
a 250 - -
a 200
_o
J5 150 -f-
3
p 100 -H
PH
50
• Risk=l&04
1999 2015 2015 2020 2020 2030 2030
base control base control base control
Total (All Sources)
400
350
a 300
_o
a 250 -I—
a 200
o
•-S
£ 150
3
o" 100
PH
50
0
• Risk=l&04
1999
2015
base
2015
control
2020
base
2020 2030
control base
2030
control
Figure 86. Populations of risk bins for total risk (all HAPs) by year and scenario for a)
background sources and b) all sources.
187
-------
a
Major Sources
Area & Other Sources
Onroad Sources
Nonroad Sources
400
350
300
250
200
150
1999 2015 base 2015 2020 base 2020 2030 base 2030
Figure 87. Populations of non-cancer HI bins for the respiratory system by year and scenario for
a) major sources, b) area & other sources, c) onroad sources and d) nonroad sources.
188
-------
a
Background
1999 2015 base 2015 2020 base 2020 2030 base 2030
control control control
Total (All Sources)
400
350
B 300
I 250
a 200
.2
2 150
s
p 100
PH
1999 2015 base 2015 2020 base 2020 2030 base 2030
control control control
Figure 88. Populations of non-cancer HI bins for the respiratory system by year and scenario for
a) background sources and b) all sources.
189
-------
8.3.2 Comparison of risk methods
The current method to calculate risk and hazard quotients, is to use the 30 replicate risks and HQ
and associated populations to calculate statistics and population bins. Using this method allows
for intra-tract variations. That is, not all people in the tract are exposed to the same risk. In the
past, the method of calculating risk was to use the tract median HAPEM concentration and
calculate risk or HQ by applying the URE or RfC for each HAP. In this method, all the people in
the tract are assumed to be exposed to the same risk. That is, there is no intra-tract variability.
This method was the method used for the 1996 NATA (U.S. EPA, 2002b) and 1999 NAT A (U.S.
EPA, 2006a).
Comparisons were made between the two methods, using 30 replicates and using the tract
median concentration for toxic calculations. Table 63 shows the populations for each year and
inventory scenario for total risk (all HAPs and sources) using the current method (denoted as
MSAT approach) and the past method (NATA approach) along with percent differences. Table
64 shows the same for respiratory hazard indices. Full summaries with charts can be found for
each year in risk_bins_comp_1999_base.xls, risk_bins_comp_2015_base.xls,
risk_bins_comp_2015_con.xls, risk_bins_comp_2020_base.xls, risk_bins_comp_2020_con.xls,
risk_bins_comp_2030_base.xls, risk_bins_comp_2030_con.xls, hi_bins_comp_1999_base.xls,
hi_bins_comp_2015_base.xls, hi_bins_comp_2015_con.xls, hi_bins_comp_2020_base.xls,
hi_bins_comp_2020_con.xls, hi_bins_comp_2030_base.xls, and hi_bins_comp_2030_con.xls in
the MSAT docket, EPA-HQ-OAR-2005-0036.
190
-------
Table 63. Populations and percent differences (MSAT-NATA) of risk bins using the MS AT
method and NATA method for 1999, 2015, 2020, and 2030.
Year
1999
2015
2020
2030
Scenario
Base
Base
Control
Base
Control
Base
Control
Bin
Risk > IxlO"4
lx!0"5< Risk < IxlO"4
lx!0"6< Risk < IxlO"5
Risk < IxlO"6
Total Population
Risk > IxlO"4
lx!0"5< Risk < IxlO"4
lxlO"6< Risk < IxlO"5
Risk < IxlO"6
Total Population
Risk > IxlO"4
lxlO"5< Risk < IxlO"4
lxlO"6< Risk < IxlO"5
Risk < IxlO"6
Total Population
Risk > IxlO"4
lx!0"5< Risk < IxlO"4
lx!0"6< Risk < IxlO"5
Risk < IxlO"6
Total Population
Risk > IxlO"4
lx!0"5< Risk < IxlO"4
lx!0"6< Risk < IxlO"5
Risk < IxlO"6
Total Population
Risk>lxlO"4
lx!0"5< Risk < IxlO"4
lx!0"6< Risk < IxlO"5
Risk < IxlO"6
Total Population
Risk > IxlO"4
lx!0"5< Risk < IxlO"4
lx!0"6< Risk < IxlO"5
Risk < IxlO"6
Total Population
MSAT
3,345,787.83
220,583,325.53
57,442,328.63
5.00
281,371,447.00
235,654.93
4,580,462.61
52,956,519.03
260,970,189.88
318,742,826.45
1,542,694.34
223,791,213.09
93,408,911.32
7.69
318,742,826.45
294,703.33
5,602,974.97
58,287,729.68
267,345,488.04
331,530,896.01
1,772,847.03
232,960,339.33
96,797,701.33
8.31
331,530,896.01
2,955,505.68
268,745,424.90
86,032,777.07
9.40
357,733,717.05
1,960,342.84
253,003,856.51
102,769,508.12
9.57
357,733,717.05
NATA
1,667,155.00
218,961,073.00
60,743,214.00
5.00
281,371,447.00
189,821.11
4,043,640.10
50,776,300.04
263,733,065.20
318,742,826.45
1,127,608.72
218,520,091.57
99,095,118.28
7.88
318,742,826.45
235,864.00
5,026,985.60
55,295,768.82
270,972,277.60
331,530,896.01
1,329,433.25
227,323,672.28
102,877,781.97
8.51
331,530,896.01
1,940,474.63
264,520,973.18
91,272,259.46
9.78
357,733,717.05
1,434,886.23
246,926,052.64
109,372,768.40
9.78
357,733,717.05
Percent
Difference
100.69%
0.74%
-5.43%
0.00%
0.00%
24.15%
13.28%
4.29%
-1.05%
0.00%
36.81%
2.41%
-5.74%
-2.36%
0.00%
24.95%
11.46%
5.41%
-1.34%
0.00%
33.35%
2.48%
-5.91%
-2.26%
0.00%
52.31%
1.60%
-5.74%
-3.80%
0.00%
36.62%
2.46%
-6.04%
-2.11%
0.00%
191
-------
Table 64. Populations and percent differences (MSAT-NATA) of respiratory HI bins using the
MSAT method and NATA method for 1999, 2015, 2020, and 2030.
Year
1999
2015
2020
2030
Scenario
Base
Base
Control
Base
Control
Base
Control
Bin
HI>10
110
110
110
110
110
110
1
-------
9. References
Abt Associates, Inc., 2005: BenMAP (Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program)
User's Manual, June 2005. Bethesda, MD.
http://www.epa.gov/ttn/ecas/models/BenMAPUserManualTextJune2005.pdf
Battelle, 2003: Estimate background concentrations for the National-Scale Air Toxics
Assessment. Technical Report. Contract No. 68-D-02-061. Work Assignment 1-03.
Bollman A. Technical Memorandum: Development of Growth Factors for Future Year
Modeling Inventories, Prepared by E. H. Pechan and Associates for Marc Houyoux, U.S.
EPA, Contract Number 68-D-00-265, Work Assignment 3-31, April 30, 2004.
http ://www. epa. gov/air/interstateairquality/pdfs/Non-
EGU_nonpoint_Growth_Development.pdf
Cohen, J., R. Cook, C.R. Bailey, E. Carr, 2005. Relationship between motor vehicle emissions
of hazardous pollutants, roadway proximity, and ambient concentrations in Portland,
Oregon. Environ Modeling & Software 20: 7-12.
Cook, R.; Glover, E.; Michaels, H.; Brzezinski, D. "Modeling of Mobile Source Air Toxics
Using EPA's National Mobile Inventory Model. Proceedings, 2004 Emission Inventory
Conference, Clearwater Beach, Fl.
http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/conference/eil3/poster/cook.pdf
Eastern Research Group. National Mobile Inventory Model (NMIM) Base and Future Year
County Database Documentation and Quality Assurance Procedures. Prepared by Eastern
Research Group, Inc., for U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Transportation
and Air Quality, Ann Arbor, MI, 2003.
E.H. Pechan and Associates. Economic Growth and Analysis System Reference Manual, EGAS
4.0. Prepared for U. S. EPA, Emission Factor and Inventory Group, Emissions Monitoring
and Analysis Division, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, EPA, January 6,
2001. http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/emch/projection/egas40/ref_man_4.pdf
Energy Information Administration. Annual Energy Outlook 2005 with Projections to 2025.
2005, Report No. DOE/EIA-0383. http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/index.html.
Fan W, Treyz F, Treyz G. An evolutionary new economic geography model. J Regional Sci
200040:671-696.
Federal Aviation Administration, 2004. Terminal Area Forecast System.
193
-------
Glen, G., Y. Lakkadi, J. A. Tippett, M. del Valle-Torres. 1997. Development of
NERL/CHAD: The National Exposure Research Laboratory Consolidated Human Activity
Database. Prepared by ManTech Environmental Technology, Inc. EPA Contract No. 68-
D5-0049.
Haskew, H. M.; Liberty, T. F.; McClement, D. 2004. Fuel Permeation from Automotive
Systems. Prepared for the Coordinating Research Council by Harold Haskew and
Associates and Automotive Testing Laboratories, Inc. September 2004. CRC Project No.
E-65. http://www.crcao.com.
Hester, Charles. 2006. Review of Data on HAP Content in Gasoline. Memorandum from
MACTEC to Steve Shedd, U. S. EPA, March 23, 2006.
Long, T, T. Johnson, J. Laurensen, A. Rosenbaum 2004. Development of Penetration and
Proximity Microenvironment Factor Distributions for the HAPEM5 in Support of the 1999
National-Scale Air Toxics Assessment (NAT A). Memorandum from TRJ Consulting and
ICF Consulting, Inc. to Ted Palma, U. S. EPA, Office of Air Quality Planning and
Standards, RTF, NC, April 5, 2004. http://www.epa.gov/ttn/fera/human_hapem.html
MathPro, 1998. Costs of Alternative Sulfur Content Standards for Gasoline in PADD IV. Final
Report. Prepared for the National Petrochemical and Refiners Association. December 30
1998.
Mathpro, 1999a. Costs of meeting 40 ppm Sulfur Content Standard for Gasoline in PADDs 1-3,
Via MOBIL and CD Tech Desulfurization Processes. Final Report. Prepared for the
American Petroleum Institute. February 26 1999.
MathPro, 1999b. Analysis of California Phase 3 RFG Standards. Prepared for the California
Energy Commission. December 7 1999.
Mullen M, Neumann J. Technical Memorandum: Documentation of 2003 VMT Projection
Methodology, Prepared by E. H. Pechan and Associates and Industrial Economics, Inc. for
James DeMocker, Office of Air and Radiation, Office of Policy Analysis and Review, U. S.
EPA, Contract No. 68-W-02-048, WA B-41, March 2004.
Pratt, G. C., C. Y. Wu, D. Bock, et al., 2004. Comparing air dispersion model predictions with
measured concentrations of VOCs in urban communities. Environ. Sci. Technol. 38: 1949-
1959.
Regional Economic Models, Inc. REMI Policy Insight, 2004. http://www.remi.com
Strum M. R. Cook, J. Thurman, D. Ensley, A. Pope, T. Palma, R. Mason, H. Michaels, and S.
Shedd, 2006. Projection of hazardous air pollutant emissions to future years. Science of the
Total Environment, 590-601.
194
-------
Taylor, M. Memorandum: Revised HAP Emission Factors for Stationary Combustion Turbines,
Prepared by Alpha-Gamma Technologies, Inc for Sims Roy, EPA OAQPS ESD
Combustion Group. August, 2003.Docket ID: OAR-2002-0060-0649.
Access via http://www.regulations.gov
U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1993. Motor Vehicle-Related Air Toxics Study. Office
of Mobile Sources, Ann Arbor, MI. Report No. EPA 420-R-93-005.
http://www.epa.gov/otaq/regs/toxics/tox archive.htm
U.S Environmental Protection Agency, 1999. Analysis of the Impacts of Control Programs on
Motor Vehicle Toxics Emissions and Exposure in Urban Areas and Nationwide.
Prepared for U. S. EPA, Office of Transportation and Air Quality, by Sierra Research,
Inc., and Radian International Corporation/Eastern Research Group. Report No. EPA
420 -R-99-029/030. http://www.epa.gov/otaq/regs/toxics/tox archive.htm
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2000. User's Guide for the Assessment System for
Population Exposure Nationwide (ASPEN, Version 1.1) Model. Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC, Report No. EPA-454/R-00-017.
http://www.epa.gov/scramOO l/dispersion_alt.htm#aspen
U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2002a. User's Guide for the Emissions Modeling
System for Hazardous Air Pollutants (EMS-HAP, Version 2.0), Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC, Report No. EPA-454/B-02-001.
http://www.epa.gov/scram001/userg/other/emshapv2ug.pdf
U. S. EPA. 2002b. 1996 National-Scale Air Toxics Assessment.
http ://www. epa. gov/ttn/atw/nata/
U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2004a. 1999 Final National Emissions Inventory Data
and Documentation, http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/net/1999inventory.html
U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2004b. User's Guide for the Emissions Modeling
System for Hazardous Air Pollutants (EMS-HAP, Version 3.0), Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC, Report No. EPA-454/B-03-006.
http://www.epa.gov/scramOO l/dispersion_related.htm#ems-hap
U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2004c. IPM Analysis for the Clean Air Interstate Rule
(CAIR) - Formerly known as the Interstate Air Quality Rule (IAQR).
http ://www. epa. gov/airmarkets/epa-ipm/iaqr.html
U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2004d. Regulatory Impact Analysis: Clean Air
Nonroad Diesel Rule. Office of Transportation and Air Quality, Ann Arbor, MI, Report
No. EPA420-R-04-007. http://www.epa.gov/nonroad-diesel/2004fr.htmfeia
195
-------
U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2005a. Clean Air Interstate Rule Emissions Inventory
Technical Support Document, March 4 2005. http://www.epa.gov/cair/pdfs/fmaltechO 1.pdf
U. S. EPA, 2005b. EPA's National Mobile Inventory Model (NMEVI), A Consolidated
Emissions Modeling System for MOBILE6 and NONROAD. U. S. Environmental
Protection Agency, Office of Transportation and Air Quality, Assessment and Standards
Division, Ann Arbor, MI, December 2005; Report No. EPA-R-05-024.
U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2005c. EGAS Version 5.0 Beta, 2005.
http://www.epa.gov/ttn/ecas/egas5.htm.
U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2005d. 2002 National Emissions Inventory Data and
Documentation, http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/net/2002inventory.html
U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2005e. Risk - Air Toxics Risk Assessment. 2005.
http://www.epa.gov/ttn/fera/risk atoxic.html.
U. S. EPA. 2006a. 1999 National-Scale Air Toxics Assessment.
http ://www. epa. gov/ttn/atw/nata 1999/
U. S. EPA. 2006b. Determination that Gasoline Distribution Stage 1 Area Source (GD AS)
Category Does Not Need to Be Regulated Under Section 112(c) 6. Memorandum from
Stephen Shedd to Kent Hustvedt, May 9, 2006. This document is available in Docket
EPA-HQ-OAR-2005-0036.
U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2007: The HAPEM6 User's Guide - Hazardous Air
Pollutant Exposure Model, Version 6; January 2007, Available at:
http://www.epa.gov/ttn/fera/hapem6/hapem6_guide.pdf; RTF, NC
196
-------
-------
United States Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards Publication No. EPA 454/R-07-002
Environmental Protection Air Quality Strategies and Standards Division Month Year
Agency Research Triangle Park, NC
------- |