EPA NONROAD Model
Updates of 2008
NONROAD2008
April 2009 International Emission Inventory
Conference
United States Office of Transportation and Air Quality
Environmental Protection EPA-420-F-09-020
Agency April 2009
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EPA NONROAD Model Updates of 2008
NONROAD2008 is an update of the NONROAD model and it supersedes all previous
versions of this model. There is a corresponding update to the NMIM model.
The main change for NONROAD2008 is the inclusion of emission reductions associated
with two rules finalized in 2008:
Diesel (Cl) recreational marine standards in the Locomotive/Marine final rule
(Federal Register Vol 73, No. 88, page 25098, May 6, 2008).
* Small Spark Ignition (SI) and SI Recreational Marine final rule
(Federal Register Vol 73, No. 196, page 59034, Octobers, 2008),
Since the main difference between NONROAD2008 and NONROAD2005 is the accounting
for new exhaust and evaporative emission controls, the newer version predicts
substantially less HC and CO, and somewhat less NOx and PM emissions than
NONROAD2005 with use of comparable scenario inputs.
Any comparison depends greatly on pollutant, equipment type, year evaluated, and fuel
choice -- especially how much ethanol is in the gasoline.
NR08-EI-ConfE.xls: 1_lntro April 2009 International Emission Inventory Conference
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EPA NONROAD Model Updates of 2008
Besides addition of controls associated with these new rules, there are some
other model changes
* Added ability to model effects of ethanol blends on fuel tank and hose permeation, two new inputs:
ethanol blend market share
volume percent ethanol (average) in the blend
5- Revised fuel tank and hose permeation emission factors for small SI (less permeation)
* Updated some inputs for Phase 2 engines (especially decreased CO deterioration)
* Added hot soak and running loss inputs for handheld equipment and SI recreational marine
* Revised fuel consumption and 2-stroke PM emission factors for SI recreational marine engines
* Updated diesel recreational marine Tier 2 emission factors per certification data as of mid-2006
The charts compare model outputs by year for one basic scenario
* Nationwide 50 states + DC (Calif is treated like any other state)
* Default equipment populations, activity, and growth
* Use of the "Daily" Temperature and RVP option
* Ethanol blend (E10) market shares increasing from 13% in 2000 to 79% in 2012
* Diesel sulfur content decreasing over time to meet 15 ppm standard
NR08-EI-ConfE.xls: 2_lntro April 2009 International Emission Inventory Conference
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NONROAD Model Nationwide Average Fuel Properties
Used for Model Version Comparisons
Year
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020+
Diesel
Land
2284
2284
2284
2284
2284
2284
2242
1139
351
351
165
32
32
32
20
11
11
11
11
11
11
Sulfur ppm
Marine
2640
2635
2637
2637
2637
2637
2588
1332
435
435
319
236
124
44
52
56
56
56
55
55
55
Ethanol Blends
Market Share %
13.5
14.5
17.0
22.2
27.3
31.0
41.5
46.3
57.5
75.1
78.8
78.8
78.8
78.8
78.8
78.8
78.8
78.8
78.8
78.8
78.8
Vol %
8.2
8.2
8.2
8.2
8.2
9.3
9.3
9.3
9.3
9.3
9.5
9.5
9.5
9.5
9.5
9.5
9.5
9.5
9.5
9.5
9.5
NR08-EI-ConfE.xls: Fuels
April 2009 International Emission Inventory Conference
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EPA NONROAD Model Updates of 2008
Can Option (OPT) files from NONROAD2005 be used in NONROAD2008?
If you wish to properly model the effects of ethanol gasoline blends on permeation
emissions, you must create new Option files that include the two new lines that specify
ethanol blend market share and volume percent ethanol in the blend.
If you open an older option file in the Graphic User Interface (GUI), you will get a warning
that there is a problem with the ethanol blend inputs; you can take care of this by entering
appropriate values in the Scenario: Options form.
If you are only modeling exhaust emissions, or just diesel fueled equipment, or there is no
ethanol in your gasoline, then Option files created with NONROAD2005 can be used with
NONROAD2008.
Option files from model versions earlier than NONROAD2005 are not compatible with
NONROAD2005 or NONROAD2008.
NR08-EI-ConfE.xls: 3_lntro April 2009 International Emission Inventory Conference
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EPA NONROAD Model Updates of 2008
Have the technical reports and User's Guide been updated for
NONROAD2008?
For this limited release of NONROAD2008 the Users Guide and technical reports have not
yet been updated.
Details of the changes and the basis of those changes from NONROAD2005 can be found
in the technical documentation for (a) the 2008 Small SI and SI Recreational Marine FRM
(RIA and docket memos) and (b) the 2008 Loco/Marine FRM.
The User's Guide and technical reports were updated for NONROAD2005. Those
documents can be downloaded from the NONROAD model web site at:
www.epa.gov/otaq/nonrdmdl.htm
NR08-EI-ConfE.xls: 4_lntro April 2009 International Emission Inventory Conference
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EPA NONROAD Model Updates of 2008
Should I use NONROAD2008 or NMIM2008?
NMIM2008 (the National Mobile Inventory Model) is a consolidated emissions modeling
system using EPA's MOBILE6.2 and NONROAD2008 models.
www.epa.gov/otaq/nmim.htm
NMIM generates county inventories using MOBILE6.2 and NONROAD2008 at scales ranging
from individual counties to the nation. Its primary improvement over NONROAD2008 is the
inclusion of all the required county temperature and fuel property data for the nation in a
single database. In addition to the pollutants produced by NONROAD2008, NMIM2008
produces inventories for gaseous hazardous air pollutants (HAPs), polyaromatic
Since NMIM2008 incorporates NONROAD2008, the common pollutant inventories produced
by each (i.e., HC, CO, CO2, NOx, PM, and SO2) will be the same, provided the same inputs
are used.
NMIM2008 will need to be used if toxic inventories are required.
NONROAD2008 must be used if equipment populations or fuel consumption estimates are
required, or if output by model year is required.
NR08-EI-ConfE.xls: 5_lntro April 2009 International Emission Inventory Conference
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EPA NONROAD Model Updates of 2008
What is EPA's policy guidance on the use of NONROAD2008 versus
NONROAD2005 for SIP and conformity purposes?
NONROAD2008 is a significant update of the NONROAD model and
should be used in analyses to meet any regulatory requirements that
call for the development of new nonroad inventories.
NR08-EI-ConfE.xls: 6_lntro April 2009 International Emission Inventory Conference
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EPA NONROAD Model Updates of 2008
What additional changes are currently underway or being considered
for the next version of the NONROAD model?
Work is underway to transform NONROAD into a database driven Java application for
incorporation into the MOVES model, so that modeling of nonroad equipment and onroad
vehicles can be accomplished using the same comprehensive model.
The current plan is to include a draft version of the nonroad modeling capability in the
release of Final MOVES2009 (for onroad vehicles) near the end of 2009. That version
would not be expected to yield substantially different results compared to
NONROAD2008.
For more information on MOVES, see http://www.epa.gov/otaq/models.htm
NR08-EI-ConfE.xls: 7_lntro April 2009 International Emission Inventory Conference
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EPA NONROAD Model Contact Information
Web: www.epa.gov/otaq/nonrdmdl.htm
Email: nonroad@epa.gov
Mail:
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Assessment and Standards Division
Air Quality and Modeling Center
2000 Traverwood Drive
Ann Arbor, Ml 48105
NR08-EI-ConfE.xls: 8_lntro April 2009 International Emission Inventory Conference
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1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000 -
« 600,000
400,000
200,000 -
2000
2005
Small SI THC exhaust Changes
NONROAD2005 vs NONROAD2008
2010
2015
Year
2020
2025
2030
NR08-EI-ConfE.xls: SmSlctl-THCexh
April 2009 International Emission Inventory Conference
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1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000 -
« 600,000
400,000
200,000 -
2000
SI Recreational Marine THC exhaust Changes
NONROAD2005 vs NONROAD2008
2005
2010
2015
Year
2020
2025
2030
NR08-EI-ConfE.xls: SlrecmarCtl-THCexh
April 2009 International Emission Inventory Conference
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400,000
350,000 -
300,000 -
250,000
« 200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
2000
Small SI THC evap Changes
NONROAD2005 vs NONROAD2008
NR08 with less base case
permeation plus 2008 controls
2005
2010
2015
Year
2020
2025
2030
NR08-EI-ConfE.xls: SmSlctl-THCevp
April 2009 International Emission Inventory Conference
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400,000
350,000
300,000 -
250,000
« 200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
2000
SI Recreational Marine THC evap Changes
NONROAD2005 vs NONROAD2008
NR05
NR08 with |ess base case
permeation plus 2008
2005
2010
2015
Year
2020
2025
2030
NR08-EI-ConfE.xls: SlrecmarCtl-THCevp
April 2009 International Emission Inventory Conference
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200,000
175,000
150,000
125,000 -
« 100,000
75,000
50,000
25,000
2000
2005
Small SI NOx Changes
NONROAD2005 vs NONROAD2008
2010
2015
Year
2020
2025
2030
NR08-EI-ConfE.xls: SmSlctl-NOx
April 2009 International Emission Inventory Conference
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200,000
175,000 -
150,000 -
125,000 -
« 100,000
75,000
50,000
25,000
2000
SI Recreational Marine NOx Changes
NONROAD2005 vs NONROAD2008
2005
2010
2015
Year
2020
2025
2030
NR08-EI-ConfE.xls: SlrecmarCtl-NOx
April 2009 International Emission Inventory Conference
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30,000,000
25,000,000
20,000,000 -
« 15,000,000
o
10,000,000
5,000,000
Spark Ignition CO Changes
NONROAD2005 vs NONROAD2008
NR08 with corrected Phase 2
engine CO deterioration
2025
2030
NR08-EI-ConfE.xls: NRSIctl-CO
April 2009 International Emission Inventory Conference
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50,000
45,000
40,000 -
« 25,000
20,000
2000
2005
Spark Ignition PM2.5 Changes
NONROAD2005 vs NONROAD2008
2010
2015
Year
2020
2025
2030
NR08-EI-ConfE.xls: NRSIctl-PM25
April 2009 International Emission Inventory Conference
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4,000
Diesel Recreational Marine THC Changes
NONROAD2005 vs NONROAD2008
3,500
3,000
1,500 -
1,000
500
» NR05
NR05 plus updated Tier 2 EFs
A NR08
Reduction due to
new standards
NR08 includes updated Diesel Tier 2 emission
factors, which substantially increased the Cl
RecMarine HC inventory estimates.
2000
2005
2010
2015
Year
2020
2025
2030
NR08-EI-ConfE.xls: CIRecMarTHC
April 2009 International Emission Inventory Conference
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(A
C
o
70,000
60,000
50,000 -
40,000
30,000
20,000 -
10,000
2000
Diesel Recreational Marine NOx Changes
NONROAD2005 vs NONROAD2008
NR08 includes updated Diesel Tier 2
emission factors, which decreased the Cl
RecMarine NOx inventory estimates.
NR05
•NR05
NR05 plus updated Tier 2 EFs
•NR08
Reduction due to
new standards
2005
2010
2015
Year
2020
2025
2030
NR08-EI-ConfE.xls: CIRecMarNOx
April 2009 International Emission Inventory Conference
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1,400
Diesel Recreational Marine PM2.5 Changes
NONROAD2005 vs NONROAD2008
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NONROAD CI+SI Total VOC (exh+evap)
3,500,000
3,000,000 -'
2,500,000
2,000,000
-------
NONROAD CI+SI Total NOx
2,500,000
2,000,000 -
1,500,000 -
-------
NONROAD CI+SI Total PM2.5
250,000
200,000 -
150,000 -
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NONROAD CI+SI Total CO
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NONROAD2008 VOC (exh+evap)
(A
C
o
3,500,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000 -
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
D Diesel Rec Marine
• Diesel Land
• Small SI
DSI Rec Marine
D Large SI
D Recreational Vehicles
Diesel Rec Marine
(too small to see)
SI Rec Marine
Recreational Vehicles
N
Year
NR08-EI-ConfE.xls: AreaCht-VOC
April 2009 International Emission Inventory Conference
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NONROAD2008 NOx
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000 -
(A
C
o
1,000,000
500,000 -
D Diesel Rec Marine
• Diesel Land
• Small SI
DSI Rec Marine
D Large SI
D Recreational Vehicles
Diesel Rec Marine
Diesel Land
SI Rec Marine
Recreational Vehicles
N
Q>
Year
NR08-EI-ConfE.xls: AreaCht-NOx
April 2009 International Emission Inventory Conference
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NONROAD2008 PM2.5
250,000
200,000
Diesel Rec Marine
(too small to see)
150,000
D Diesel Rec Marine
D Diesel Land
• Small SI
DSI Rec Marine
D Large SI
D Recreational Vehicles
(A
C
o
100,000
50,000
Recreational Vehicles
Year
NR08-EI-ConfE.xls: AreaCht-PM25
April 2009 International Emission Inventory Conference
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NONROAD2008 Carbon Monoxide
30,000,000
25,000,000
20,000,000
« 15,000,000
o
10,000,000
5,000,000
0
Recreational Vehicles
Diesel Rec Marine
(too small to see)
D Diesel Rec Marine
• Diesel Land
• Small SI
DSI Rec Marine
D Large SI
D Recreational Vehicles
N
Year
NR08-EI-ConfE.xls: AreaCht-CO
April 2009 International Emission Inventory Conference
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