Heavy-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas
(HDGHG) Emissions Inventory for Air
Quality Modeling Technical Support
Document
&EPA
United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
-------
Heavy-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas
(HDGHG) Emissions Inventory for Air
Quality Modeling Technical Support
Document
Air Quality Assessment Division
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
Office of Air and Radiation
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
EPA-420-R-11-008
August 2011
-------
TABLE OF CONTENTS
ACRONYMS ii
LIST OF TABLES iii
LIST OF APPENDICES iii
1 Introduction 1
2 2005 Emission inventories and their preparation 2
2.1 Custom configuration for emissions modeling for HDGHG 4
2.2 Point, Nonpoint, Nonroad, and non-U.S. sources 6
2.3 2005 Onroad Mobile sources 6
3 VOC speciation changes that represent fuel changes 7
4 2030 Reference Case 10
4.1 Stationary source projections: EGU sector (ptipm) 17
4.2 Stationary source projections: non-EGU sectors (ptnonipm, nonpt, ag, afdust) 17
4.2.1 Livestock emissions growth (ag, afdust) 18
4.2.2 Residential wood combustion growth (nonpt) 19
4.2.3 Gasoline Stage II growth and control (nonpt, ptnonipm) 19
4.2.4 Portable fuel container growth and control (nonpt) 20
4.2.5 Aircraft growth (ptnonipm) 21
4.2.6 Stationary source control programs, consent decrees & settlements, and plant closures
(ptnonipm, nonpt) 22
4.2.7 Oil and gas projections in TX, OK, and non-California WRAP states (nonpt) 26
4.3 Mobile source projections 27
4.3.1 Onroad mobile (on_noadj, on_moves_runpm, on_moves_startpm) 27
4.3.2 Locomotives and Class 1 & 2 commercial marine vessels (alm_no_c3) 30
4.3.3 Class 3 commercial marine vessels (seca_c3) 32
4.4 Canada, Mexico, and Offshore sources (othar, othon, and othpt) 33
5 2030 Control Case 33
5.1 2030 Control Case Point and Nonpoint sources 33
5.2 2030 Control Case Mobile sources 34
6 References 35
-------
ACRONYMS
AEO Annual Energy Outlook
BEIS Biogenic Emission Inventory System
btp Bulk plant terminal-to-pump
C3 Category 3 (commercial marine vessels)
CAP Criteria Air Pollutant
CARB California Air Resources Board
CMAQ Community Multiscale Air Quality
CSAPR Cross-State Air Pollution (formerly Transport) Rule
EO 0% Ethanol gasoline
E10 10% Ethanol gasoline
EISA Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007
ECU Electric Generating Utility
FAA Federal Aviation Administration
FIPS Federal Information Processing Standard
HAP Hazardous Air Pollutant
HDGHG Heavy Duty Greenhouse Gas
HONO HNO2, nitrous acid
IPM Integrated Planning Model
LDGHG Light Duty Greenhouse Gas
MOBILES Mobile Source Emission Factor Model, version 6
MOVES Motor Vehicle Emissions Simulator
MY Model Year
NEEDS National Electric Energy Database System
NEI National Emission Inventory
NMIM National Mobile Inventory Model
OAQPS EPA's Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
ORL One Record per Line (a SMOKE input format)
MP Multipollutant
NO Nitric oxide
NO2 Nitrogen dioxide
NOX Nitrogen oxides
PFC Portable Fuel Container
PEC Elemental carbon component of PM2.5
PMFINE Leftover "Other", or "crustal" component of PM2.5
PNO3 Particulate nitrate component of PM2.5
PSO4 Particulate sulfate component of PM2.5
POC Organic carbon component of PM2.5
rbt Refinery-to-bulk terminal
RFS2 Revised annual renewable fuel standard
SMOKE Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions
SCC Source Category Code
TAP Terminal Area Forecast
TSD Technical Support Document
VOC Volatile Organic Compound
WRAP Western Regional Air Partnership
11
-------
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1-1. List of cases run in support of the HDGHG air quality modeling 1
Table 2-1. Sectors Used in Emissions Modeling for the HDGHG Platform 2
Table 2-2. Model species produced by SMOKE for CB05 with SOA for HDGHG platform 5
Table 2-3. Description of differences in ancillary data between the HDGHG 2005 case and the 2005 v4.2
platform 6
Table 2-4. HONO, NO, and NO2 computations in HDGHG versus 2005v4.2 platform 7
Table 3-1. Summary of VOC speciation profile approaches by sector across cases 9
Table 4-1. Control strategies and growth assumptions for creating the 2030 Reference case emissions
inventories from the 2005 base case 14
Table 4-2. Growth factors from year 2005 to 2030 for Animal Operations 18
Table 4-3. Projection Factors for growing year 2005 Residential Wood Combustion Sources 19
Table 4-4. Factors used to project 2005 base-case aircraft emissions to year 2030 21
Table 4-5. Summary of Non-EGU Emission Reductions Applied to the 2005 Inventory due to Unit and Plant
Closures 23
Table 4-6. Future-year ISIS-based cement industry annual reductions (tons/yr) for the non-EGU (ptnonipm)
sector 24
Table 4-7. State-level non-MACT Boiler Reductions from ICR Data Gathering 25
Table 4-8. National Impact of RICE Controls on 2030 Non-EGU Projections 25
Table 4-9. Impact of Fuel Sulfur Controls on 2014 Non-EGU Projections 26
Table 4-10. Oil and Gas NOx and SO2 Emissions for 2005 and 2030 including additional reductions due to
the RICE NESHAP 26
Table 4-11. Components of 2030 HDGHG Nonroad Sector 30
Table 4-12. Factors applied to year 2005 emissions to project locomotives and Class 1 and Class 2
Commercial Marine Vessel Emissions to 2030 31
Table 4-13. NOx, SO2, and PM2.5 Factors to Project Class 3 Commercial Marine Vessel emissions to 2030
33
Table 5-1. Upstream HDGHG Control Case adjustments 34
Table 5-2. Onroad mobile reductions from HDGHG controls 34
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 4-1. MOVES exhaust temperature adjustment functions for 2005 and 2030 29
LIST OF APPENDICES
APPENDIX A: Modified HDGHG Equations to adapt pre-speciated diesel emissions from MOVES to air
quality modeling species needed for CMAQ.
APPENDIX B: Inventory Data Files Used for Each HDGHG Modeling Case - SMOKE Input Inventory
Datasets
APPENDIX C: Ancillary Data Files Used for HDGHG 2005 Case Compared to 2005 v4.2 Platform Data
Files
APPENDIX D: Summary of HDGHG Rule 2030 Reference Case Non-EGU Control Programs, Closures
and Projections
in
-------
1 Introduction
This document provides the details of emissions data processing done in support of the Environmental
Protection Agency (EPA) and National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) joint rulemaking
effort under the Clean Air Act (CAA) and the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA) to
establish fuel efficiency and greenhouse gas emissions standards for commercial medium-and heavy-duty
on-highway vehicles and work trucks beginning with the 2014 model year (MY). This rulemaking effort is
hereafter referred to in this technical support document (TSD) as the Heavy Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas
(HDGHG) rule and consists of three emissions cases. Table 1-1 provides of list of the emissions cases
created for this modeling effort.
Table 1-1. List of cases run in support of the HDGHG air quality modeling
Case Name
2005 Base case
2030 Reference case
2030 Control case
Internal EPA
Abbreviation
2005cs_hdghg
2030cs_hdghg_ref
2030cs_hdghg_ctl
Description
2005 case created using average year fires data and an
average year temporal allocation approach for Electrical
Generating Units (EGUs), used to compute relative
response factors with 2030 scenarios.
2030 "reference" (baseline) scenario representing the
best estimate for the future year without implementation
of national heavy duty vehicle emissions standards.
2030 "control" case scenario representing
implementation of national emissions standards, phased
in between 2014 and 2018, for (commercial medium and)
heavy-duty vehicles.
The data used in the 2005 emissions cases are often the same as those described in the Transport Rule Final
CAP-BAFM 2005-based, Version 4.2 Platform TSD (http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/emch/index.htmltf2005).
but some different emissions data are used for this rulemaking. Specifically, the HDGHG modeling used
data intended only for the rule development and not for general use. All of the documentation provided here
describes what was done differently and specifically for the HDGHG effort in contrast to what is used in the
v4.2 platform.
In HDGHG, we used a 2005 base case approach for the year 2005 emissions scenario. This approach is very
similar to that in the recently promulgated Cross State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR) Final Rule (formerly
known as the "Transport Rule"). A base case approach uses average year fires and EGU temporal profiles
from three years of EGU data. We use a base case approach because we want to reduce year-specific
variability in some components of the inventory. For example, large fires vary in location and day of the
year each year, and EGU shutdowns and high use on high energy demand days also vary by year. By using a
base case approach, these two aspects of the inventory are maintained in future year modeling and therefore
do not introduce potentially spurious year-specific artifacts in air quality modeling estimates. For HDGHG,
the same biogenic emissions data as the v4.2 platform was used for the 2005 case, and also for both future-
year cases. The only significant data changes between the 2005 and the 2030 future-year HDGHG cases are
the emission inventories and speciation approaches.
For this effort, we have created and provided county-level emission summaries for criteria pollutants and
select hazardous air pollutants (e.g. benzene, acetaldehyde, formaldehyde, acrolein, 1,3-butadiene, ethanol,
naphthalene) by emissions modeling sector for the cases listed above. Summaries are included by month
using average day emissions and separately with annual totals. These data have been provided to the EPA
1
-------
docket for this rule. In addition, the data will be posted on the Clearinghouse for Inventories and Emissions
Factors (CHIEF) website in early August 2011 under the "HDGHG 2005 and 2030 emissions data" link at:
http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/emch/index.htmltf2005.
In the remainder of this document, we provide a description of the approaches taken for the emissions in
support of air quality modeling for HDGHG. In Section 2, we describe the ancillary data and 2005 inventory
differences from the v4.2 platform. In Section 3, we describe the speciation differences among each of the
cases run for HDGHG. In Section 4, we describe the 2030 Reference case as compared to the 2005 base
case, and in Section 5, we describe the 2030 Control Case in comparison to the 2030 Reference case.
2 2005 Emission inventories and their preparation
As mentioned previously, the 2005 emissions modeling approach for HDGHG used much of the same data
and approaches as the 2005 v4.2 platform. In this section, we identify the differences between the data used
for HDGHG and that used for the 2005 v4.2 platform. Section 2.1 provides ancillary data differences that
impact multiple sectors and Sections 2.2 through 2.3 provides differences for the point, area, and mobile
sectors.
Table 2-1 below lists the platform sectors used for the HDGHG modeling platform. It also indicates which
platform sectors include HAP emissions and the associated sectors from the National Emission Inventory
(NEI). Subsequent sections refer to these platform sectors for identifying the emissions differences between
the v4.2 platform and the HDGHG platform.
Table 2-1. Sectors Used in Emissions Modeling for the HDGHG Platform
Platform Sector
IPM sector: ptipm
Non-IPM sector:
ptnonipm
Average-fire sector:
avefire
Agricultural sector:
ag
Area fugitive dust
sector: afdust
Remaining nonpoint
sector: nonpt
Nonroad sector:
nonroad
Aircraft,
locomotive, marine:
alm_no_c3
2005 NEI
Sector
Point
Point+
N/A
Nonpoint
Nonpoint
Nonpoint+
Mobile:
Nonroad
Mobile:
Nonroad
Description
NEI EGU units at facilities mapped to the IPM model using the
National Electric Energy Database System (NEEDS) database.
All NEI point source units not matched to the ptipm sector,
including aircraft.
Average-year wildfire and prescribed fire emissions, county and
annual resolution.
NH3 emissions from NEI nonpoint livestock and fertilizer
application.
PM10 and PM2 5 emissions from fugitive dust sources in the NEI
nonpoint inventory.
All nonpoint sources not otherwise included in other emissions
modeling sectors.
Monthly nonroad emissions from the National Mobile Inventory
Model (NMIM) using NONROAD2005 version nr05c-BondBase,
which is equivalent to NONROAD2008a, since it incorporated
Bond rule revisions to some of the base-case inputs and the Bond
rule controls did not take effect until later. NMIM was used for all
states except California. Monthly emissions for California created
from annual emissions submitted by the California Air Resources
Board (CARB) for the 2005v2 NEI.
Primarily 2002 NEI non-rail maintenance locomotives, and
category 1 and category 2 commercial marine vessel (CMV)
emissions sources, county and annual resolution. Aircraft
emissions are no longer in this sector and are now included in the
Non-EGU sector (as point sources); also, category 3 CMV
emissions are no longer in this sector and are now contained in the
seca c3 sector.
Contains HAP
emissions?
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
-------
Platform Sector
2005 NEI
Sector
Description
Contains HAP
emissions?
C3 commercial
marine: seca c3
Mobile:
nonroad
Annual point source-formatted, year 2005 category 3 (C3) CMV
emissions, developed for the rule called "Control of Emissions
from New Marine Compression-Ignition Engines at or Above 30
Liters per Cylinder", usually described as the Emissions Control
Area (EGA) study (http://www.epa.gov/otaq/oceanvessels.htm).
Utilized final projections from 2002, developed for the C3 EGA
Proposal to the International Maritime Organization (EPA-420-F-
10-041, August 2010).
Yes
Onroad, except
gasoline PM:
on_noadj
Mobile:
onroad+
Three, monthly, county-level components:
1) California onroad, created using annual emissions for all
pollutants, submitted by GARB for the 2005v2 NEI. NH3 (not
submitted by CARB) from MOVES2010a.
2) Onroad gasoline and diesel vehicle emissions from
MOVES2010a not subject to temperature adjustments: exhaust
CO, NOX, VOC, NH3, benzene, formaldehyde, acetaldehyde,
1,3-butadiene, acrolein, naphthalene, brake and tire wearPM, and
evaporative VOC, benzene, and naphthalene.
3) Onroad emissions for Hg from NMIM using MOBILE6.2,
other than for California.
Yes
Onroad starting
exhaust PM:
on_moves_startpm
Mobile:
onroad+
Monthly, county-level MOVES2010a-based onroad gasoline
emissions subject to temperature adjustments. Limited to exhaust
mode only for PM species and naphthalene. California emissions
not included. This sector is limited to cold start mode emissions
that contain different temperature adjustment curves from running
exhaust (see on_moves_runpm sector).
No
Onroad running
exhaust PM
on_moves_mnpm
Mobile:
onroad+
Monthly, county-level draft MOVES2010a-based onroad gasoline
emissions subject to temperature adjustments. Limited to exhaust
mode only for PM species and naphthalene. California emissions
not included. This sector is limited to running mode emissions
that contain different temperature adjustment curves from cold
start exhaust (see on_moves_startpm sector).
No
Biogenic: biog
N/A
Hour-specific, grid cell-specific emissions generated from
the BEIS3.14 model, including emissions in Canada and
Mexico. Unchanged from the 2005v4 platform.
No
Other point sources
not from the NEI:
othpt
N/A
Point sources from Canada's 2006 inventory and Mexico's
Phase III 1999 inventory, annual resolution. Also includes
annual U.S. offshore oil 2005v2 NEI point source
emissions. Unchanged from the 2005v4 platform.
No
Other nonpoint and
nonroad not from
the NEI: othar
N/A
Annual year 2006 Canada (province resolution) and year
1999 Mexico Phase III (municipio resolution) nonpoint and
nonroad mobile inventories. Unchanged from the 2005v4
platform.
No
Other onroad
sources not from the
NEI: othon
N/A
Year 2006 Canada (province resolution) and year 1999
Mexico Phase III (municipio resolution) onroad mobile
inventories, annual resolution. Unchanged from the 2005v4
platform.
No
Some data included in modeling sector has been revised beyond what is included in the 2005 NEI vl or v2.
As with the 2005 v4.2 platform, the primary emissions modeling tool used to create the air quality model-
ready emissions was the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) modeling system
(http://www.smoke-model.org/index.cfm). We used SMOKE version 2.6 to create emissions files for a 36-
km national grid, and 12-km Eastern and 12-km Western grids for the 2005 base case (also known as the
"2005cs_hdghg_05b" case).
-------
2.1 Custom configuration for emissions modeling for HDGHG
Unlike the 2005 v4.2 platform, the configuration for HDGHG modeling included additional hazardous air
pollutants (HAPs) and used slightly revised ancillary speciation data. Both of these differences are described
in this section.
Table 2-2 lists the additional HAP pollutants processed for the HDGHG platform, which were not included
in the 2005 v4.2 platform. However, since using the full multipollutant HAP version of the Community
Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model would have taken longer than the time available for our project, we
used a "lite" version of the multipollutant CMAQ (Version 4.7) that required emissions only for the species
listed in the footnote of Table 2-2.
-------
Table 2-2. Model species produced by SMOKE for CB05 with SOA for HDGHG platform
Inventory Pollutant
CL2
HC1
CO
NOX
SO2
NH3
VOC
Various additional
VOC species from the
biogenics model which
do not map to the
above model species
PM10
PM2.5
Sea-salt species (non -
anthropogenic
emissions)
Model Species
CL2
HCL
CO
NO
NO2
HONO
SO2
SULF
NH3
ACROLEIN*
ALD2
ALD PRIMARY*
ALDX
BENZENE
BUTADIENE13*
ETH
ETHA
ETOH
FORM
FORM PRIMARY*
IOLE
ISOP
MEOH
OLE
PAR
TOL
XYL
SESQ
TERP
PMC
PEC
PNO3
POC
PSO4
PMFINE
PCL
PNA
Model species description
Atomic gas-phase chlorine
Hydrogen Chloride (hydrochloric acid) gas
Carbon monoxide
Nitrogen oxide
Nitrogen dioxide
Nitrous acid
Sulfur dioxide
Sulfuric acid vapor
Ammonia
Acrolein from the HAP inventory
Acetaldehyde from VOC speciation
Acetaldehyde from the HAP inventory
Propionaldehyde and higher aldehydes
Benzene (not part of CB05)
1,3 -butadiene from the HAP inventory
Ethene
Ethane
Ethanol
Formaldehyde
Formaldehyde from the HAP inventory
Internal olefin carbon bond (R-C=C-R)
Isoprene
Methanol
Terminal olefin carbon bond (R-C=C)
Paraffin carbon bond
Toluene and other monoalkyl aromatics
Xylene and other polyalkyl aromatics
Sesquiterpenes
Terpenes
Coarse PM > 2.5 microns and < 10 microns
Particulate elemental carbon < 2.5 microns
Particulate nitrate < 2.5 microns
Particulate organic carbon (carbon only) < 2.5 microns
Particulate Sulfate < 2.5 microns
Other particulate matter < 2.5 microns
Particulate chloride
Particulate sodium
- ACROLEIN, ALD2_PRIMARY, BUTADIENE13, and FORM_PRIMARY are the extra "CMAQ-lite"
HAPs that are not in the v4.2 platform.
In addition to the model species differences, the HDGHG platform had a few additional custom aspects in
the 2005 cases. Table 2-3 lists the datasets used by the HDGHG platform that are different from the v4.2
platform. In addition, Appendix C provides a more detailed comparison of the ancillary datasets for the 2005
v4.2 platform versus the HDGHG platform.
-------
Another consideration is the speciation across the HDGHG future-year cases as compared to 2005. Section 3
provides a detailed account of these differences. Otherwise, the future-year ancillary data were largely the
same as those in 2005, with no substantial differences. All ancillary data files can be found at the 2005-
based platform website (http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/emch/index.htmltf2005).
Table 2-3. Description of differences in ancillary data between the HDGHG 2005 case and the 2005 v4.2
platform
Ancillary Data Type
Speciation cross-
references and
Speciation profiles
Inventory tables
Difference between 2005 v4.2 platform and HDGHG platform
The HDGHG data files are configured to support the multi-pollutant (MP)
version of CMAQ, whereas the 2005 v4.2 platform data file is configured to
support only the non-MP version. Therefore, the HDGHG data files include
profiles for additional VOC HAP species.
The HDGHG data file is configured to support the MP "lite" version of CMAQ,
whereas the 2005 v4.2 platform data file is configured to support only the non-
MP version.
2.2 Point, Nonpoint, Nonroad, and non-U.S. sources
With the exception of the extra VOC HAPs retained in HDGHG processing, the 2005 HDGHG emissions for
all sectors except for U.S. onroad mobile sectors (on_noadj, on_moves_runpm, and on_moves_startpm) are
identical to those provided in the 2005 Version 4.2-based Transport Rule Final TSD. All point source
sectors (ptnonipm, point), nonpoint source sectors (nonpt, afdust, ag, avefire), nonroad sectors (alm_no_c3,
nonroad, seca_c3) and Canada and Mexico sector (othar, othon, othpt) inventories are the same in the 2005
HDGHG platform as the 2005v4.2 emissions modeling platform. The 2005v4.2 TSD can be found at:
ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/2005v4_2/transportrulefinal_eitsd_28jun2011 .pdf.
2.3 2005 Onroad Mobile sources
Onroad mobile sources include three sectors for US onroad emissions (on_noadj, on_moves_startpm,
on_moves_runpm). As discussed in the previous section, the three US nonroad sectors (nonroad,
alm_no_c3, and seca_c3) and the Canada/Mexico onroad emissions (othon) are unchanged from the
2005v4.2 platform.
For onroad mobile, the MOVES-based emissions in the on_noadj sector and the on_moves_startpm and
on_moves_runpm sectors (completely MOVES-based) emissions inventory data are from the Motor Vehicle
Emission Simulator (MOVES2010, specifically, version MOVES2010a) model. The NH3 onroad emissions
in California (on_noadj sector) use MOVES2010(a)-based emissions in HDGHG compared to the NMTM
(MOBILE6)-based emissions in the 2005v4.2 platform.
The HDGHG onroad emissions keep additional HAPs as described in Section 2.1. In addition for these
MOVES sectors, the temperature adjustment calculations applied to PM2.5 species were the same as in the
v4.2 platform.
For HDGHG, MOVES2010a was used in conjunction with an internal default database
MOVESDB20100913, which contained performance updates from the MOVESDB20100826, the database
originally released with MOVES2010a and used in the 2005v4.2 platform. Specifically, the MOVES2010a
emissions updates for HDGHG include improved PM exhaust estimates (particularly for future year
estimates). In addition, we used NO and NO2 directly from MOVES2010a for HDGHG, rather than the
default NO/NO2 speciation from NOx used in 2005v4.2 processing. Table 2-4 shows the default NO, NO2,
and HONO fractions used in 2005v4.2 versus the equations for HDGHG, where NO_MOVES and
NO2_MOVES are the MOVES2010-provided NO and NO2 emissions. The HONO, computed from total
-------
MOVES NOX (sum of NO and NO2 from MOVES) is subtracted out of MOVES NO2 to conserve mass.
The speciation of MOVES HONO, NO and NO2 is based on the molecular weight of NO2 (46); that is, these
NOx components were speciated assuming they were inventoried as NO2-equivalent; all prior speciation of
MOVES NOx was also based on NO2 molecular weight equivalency.
Table 2-4. HONO, NO, and NO2 computations in HDGHG versus 2005v4.2 platform
CMAQ Specie
NO
NO2
HONO
HDGHG
NO MOVES
0.992 * NO2 MOVES -
0.008 * (NO2 MOVES H
0.008 * NO MOVES
h NO_MOVES)
2005v4.2
NOX * 0.9
NOX * 0.092
NOX * 0.008
With one notable exception discussed here, for onroad gasoline exhaust PM emissions, the allocation of
MOVES PM2.5 emissions to SMOKE-ready format PM species is the same as the 2005v4.2 platform and is
documented in Appendix D of the 2005v4.1 TSD:
http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/emch/toxics/2005v4. l_appendices.pdf. The exception to these equations is that
for HDGHG processing, NELi (ammonium) is removed from the computation of POC (PM2.s-based organic
carbon) in equation 9, which in turn, affects the PMFINE ("other", or "crustal" PM2.s) computation in
equation 10. In short, MOVES2010a for HDGHG included improved PM exhaust estimates, and for diesel
exhaust, the larger sulfate (PSO4) component was creating more MLj in equation 7 than available
"PM25OM" from MOVES2010a, where MOVES-provided species are related as follows:
PM25_TOTAL = PM25EC + PM25OM + PSO4
CMAQ requires the five CMAQ species to also sum to total PM2.5:
PM2.5 = POC+PEC+PNO3+PSO4+PMFINE
Appendix A in this document contains the revised text and equations, specifically, equation 7b for diesel
exhaust. A recent study (SRI, 2009) also showed that, despite being sampled for NH4 and other ionic species
in the particle phase, no particle phase NH4 was found in downstream filter tests. OTAQ experts agreed that
NH4 for diesel exhaust must therefore removed, but we did not have time to reprocess gasoline exhaust PM
(on_moves_runpm and on_moves_startpm sector) emissions with NH4 removed so the gasoline exhaust PM
emissions do include some ammonium. However, PSO4 for gasoline exhaust is considerably smaller than
diesel exhaust so the impact is likely negligible for air quality modeling. It is important to note that total
PM2.5 was conserved for both gasoline and diesel exhaust (e.g., PM2_5_TOTAL from MOVES and PM2.5
for CMAQ are identical). Note that PM emissions from these diesel sources are not subject to temperature
adjustments like the on_moves_startpm and on_moves_runpm sectors.
3 VOC speciation changes that represent fuel changes
A significant detail that is different in each of the HDGHG modeling cases than in the 2005v4.2 emissions
modeling is the VOC speciation profiles used to split total VOC emissions into the VOC model species
needed for CMAQ. In this section, we summarize the various speciation profile information used in
configuring the various cases.
The VOC speciation approach used for the base-year case HD GHG 2005 has some notable differences from
the 2005 v4.2 platform for many emissions modes (e.g., evaporative, exhaust) and processes (e.g., diesel,
gasoline, refueling). Two significant updates in the 2005 HDGHG are: 1) headspace vapor speciation
utilizes a combination of the E10 headspace vapor profile (8763) and EO headspace vapor profile (8762) as
7
-------
opposed to using solely EO for 2005 *, and 2) a new Heavy Duty Diesel vehicle exhaust mode profile (8774)
for pre-2007 model year (MY) vehicles that replaces an older 2004-vintage medium-duty diesel profile
(4674). See for Table 3-1 more details.
The VOC speciation approach used for each of the future-year cases is customized to account for the impact
of fuel changes. These changes affect the on_noadj sector, the nonroad sector, and parts of the nonpt and
ptnonipm sectors. The speciation changes from fuels in the nonpt sector are for portable fuel containers
(PFCs) and fuel distribution operations associated with the bulk-plant-to-pump (btp) distribution. The
speciation changes from fuels in the ptnonipm sector include btp distribution operations inventoried as point
sources. Refinery to bulk terminal (rbt) fuel distribution speciation does not change across the modeling
cases because this is considered upstream from the introduction of ethanol into the fuel. Mapping of fuel
distribution SCCs to btp and rbt emissions categories can be found in Appendix A of the revised annual
Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2) Emissions Inventory for Air Quality Modeling Technical Support
Document (EPA Report No. 420-R-10-005, January 2010,
http://www.epa.gov/otaq/renewablefuels/420rl0005.pdf).
Table 3-1 summarizes the different profiles utilized for the fuel-related sources in each of the sectors for
2005 and the future year cases. A comparison of the 2005v4.2 platform with the FIDGHG 2005 case is also
included.
1 This was an oversight in the 2005v4.2 platform corrected for this modeling effort.
-------
Table 3-1. Summary of VOC speciation profile approaches by sector across cases
Inventory
Type and
Mode
Mobile
Exhaust
Diesel
Mobile
Exhaust
Gasoline
Mobile
Evaporative
Diesel
Mobile
Evaporative
Gasoline
Mobile
Refueling,
PFCs, gas
distribution
VOC speciation approach by fuels
medium-duty diesel exhaust, 2004-
vintage
pre-2007 Heavy Duty profile
pre-2007 Medium Duty
weighted year 2030 heavy-duty start
(parking area) emissions without
HD controls
weighted year 2030 heavy-duty start
(parking area) emissions with HD
controls
weighted year 2030 medium-duty
start (parking area) emissions
without HD controls
weighted year 2030 medium-duty
start (parking area) emissions with
HD controls
Tier 1 EO and E10 combinations
Tier 1 EO or E10 by county
diesel evap headspace profile,
Circle K Diesel single-sample
EO and E10 combinations
EO or E10 by county
EO and E10 combinations
EO or E10 by county
EO headspace
EO headspace and E10 headspace
combinations
EO headspace or E10 by county
VOC
Profile
Codes
4674
8774
8775
877RH
877CH
877RM
877CM
8750
8751
8750
8751
4547
8753
8754
8753
8754
8753
8754
8753
8754
8762
8762
8763
8762
8763
2005
V4.2
onroad
nonroad
onroad
nonroad
onroad
nonroad
onroad
nonroad
All
listed
2005
HDGH
G
onroad
nonroad
onroad
nonroad
onroad
nonroad
onroad
nonroad
All
listed
2030
Reference
onroad
except
Class 6,7
& 8 start
onroad
class 8
start only
onroad
class 6 &
7 start
only
onroad
nonroad
onroad
nonroad
onroad
nonroad
All listed
2030
Control
onroad
except
Class 6,7
& 8 start
onroad
class 8
start only
onroad
class 6 &
7 start
only
onroad
nonroad
onroad
nonroad
onroad
nonroad
All listed
Appendix C lists ancillary input data file names used for HDGHG emissions modeling that are updated from
the v4.2 platform. All ancillary data files not unique to HDGHG emissions modeling are available on the
2005v4.2-based platform website previously referenced.
-------
4 2030 Reference Case
The 2030 Reference case is intended to represent the emissions associated with use of the most likely volume
of ethanol in the absence of the greenhouse gas emissions standards for commercial medium-and heavy-duty
on-highway vehicles and work trucks beginning with the 2014 model year (MY). The reference case
assumes no improvements in fuel consumption or greenhouse gas emissions in MY 2014 through 2018. The
reference and control cases do not include fuel and emissions changes from the Energy Independence and
Security Act of 2007 (EISA), or revised annual Renewable Fuel Standards (RFS2); however the Light Duty
Greenhouse Gas (LDGHG) impacts are included in both cases.
The 2030 Reference case uses many of the same growth and control assumptions as those for the Final
Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR), because other than onroad mobile sources, both HDGHG and
CSAPR use the same 2005v4.2-based emissions inventories. There are some differences between the 2012
and 2014 base case projections in CSAPR and the 2030 reference case for HDGHG:
1) The year 2030 includes some additional controls that were promulgated after 2014 (e.g., fuel sulfur
rules in a couple of states).
2) Growth factors for several sources are year-specific; so while the methodology is the same as
CSAPR, the future year emissions estimates differ (e.g., oil and gas in a couple states, onroad
refueling, residential wood combustion).
3) Minor errors identified after CSAPR modeling was complete were fixed (e.g, we include agricultural
dust projections for the couple of states that provided point source farms).
The remainder of Section 4 is very similar to Section 4 in the CSAPR emissions modeling TSD, available
from ftp://ftp.epa.gov/Emisrnventoiy/2005v4_2/transportrulefinal_eitsd_28jun2011.pdf, but with the updates
described above.
The future base-case projection methodologies vary by sector. The 2030 reference case represents predicted
emissions in the absence of any further controls beyond those Federal and State measures already
promulgated before emissions processing on the Transport Rule began in December, 2010. For EGU
emissions (ptipm sector), the emissions reflect state rules and federal consent decrees through December 1,
2010. For mobile sources (on_noadj, on_moves_runpm, and on_moves_startpm sectors), all national
measures for which data were available at the time of modeling have been included. The future base-case
scenarios do reflect projected economic changes and fuel usage for EGU and mobile sectors. For nonEGU
point (ptnonipm sector) and nonpoint stationary sources (nonpt, ag, and afdust sectors), local control
programs that might have been necessary for areas to attain the 1997 PM2.5 NAAQS annual standard, 2006
PM NAAQS (24-hour) standard, and the 1997 ozone NAAQS are generally not included in the future base-
case projections for most states. One exception are some NOx and VOC reductions associated with the New
York, Virginia, and Connecticut State Implementation Plans (SIP), which were added as part of the
comments received from the CSAPR and a larger effort to start including more local control information on
stationary non-EGU sources; this is described further in Section 4.2. The following bullets summarize the
projection methods used for sources in the various sectors, while additional details and data sources are given
in Table 4-1.
10
-------
IPM sector (ptipm): Unit-specific estimates from IPM, version 4.10.
Non-IPM sector (ptnonipm): Projection factors and percent reductions reflect CSAPR (Transport
Rule) comments and emission reductions due to control programs, plant closures, consent decrees
and settlements, and 1997 and 2001 ozone State Implementation Plans in NY, CT, and VA. We also
used projection approaches for point-source livestock, and aircraft and gasoline stage II emissions
that are consistent with projections used for the sectors that contain the bulk of these emissions.
Terminal area forecast (TAP) data aggregated to the national level were used for aircraft to account
for projected changes in landing/takeoff activity. Year-specific speciation was applied to some
portions of this sector and was discussed in Section 3.
Average fires sector (avefire): No growth or control.
Agricultural sector (ag): Projection factors for livestock estimates based on expected changes in
animal population from 2005 Department of Agriculture data; no growth or control for NHs
emissions from fertilizer application.
Area fugitive dust sector (afdust): Projection factors for dust categories related to livestock estimates
based on expected changes in animal population; no growth or control for other categories in this
sector.
Remaining Nonpoint sector (nonpt): Projection factors that implement Transport Rule Proposal
comments and reflect emission reductions due to control programs. Residential wood combustion
projections based on growth in lower-emitting stoves and a reduction in higher emitting stoves. PFC
projection factors reflecting impact of the final Mobile Source Air Toxics (MSAT2) rule. Gasoline
stage II projection factors based on National Mobile Inventory Model (NMEVI)-estimated VOC
refueling estimates for future years. Oil and gas projection estimates are provided for the non-
California Western Regional Air Partnership (WRAP) states as well as Oklahoma and Texas. Year-
specific speciation was applied to some portions of this sector and was discussed in Section 3.
Nonroad mobile sector (nonroad): Other than for California, this sector uses data from a run of
NMEVI that utilized the NR05d-Bond-final version of NONROAD (which is equivalent to
NONROAD2008a), using future-year equipment population estimates and control programs to the
year 2030 and using national level inputs. Final controls from the final locomotive-marine and small
spark ignition OTAQ rules are included. California-specific data provided by the state of California,
except NHs used 2030 NMEVI. Year-specific speciation was applied to some portions of this sector
and is discussed in Section 4.3.5.
Locomotive, and non-Class 3 commercial marine sector (alm_no_c3): Projection factors for Class 1
and Class 2 commercial marine and locomotives which reflect Transport Rule comments and activity
growth and final locomotive-marine controls.
Class 3 commercial marine vessel sector (seca_c3): Base-year 2005 emissions grown and controlled
to 2030, incorporating Transport Rule comments and controls based on Emissions Control Area
(EGA) and International Marine Organization (EVIO) global NOx and SO2 controls.
Onroad mobile sector with no adjustment for daily temperature (on_noadj): MOVES2010a run
(state-month) for 2030 with results disaggregated to the county level in proportion to NMIM 2030
emissions estimates. The reference case does not include HDGHG or RFS2 impacts, but does
include LDGHG impacts. Temperature impacts at the monthly average resolution. California-
specific data provided by the state of California, except NHa which was obtained from
MOVES2010a. VOC speciation uses different future-year values to take into account both the
increase in ethanol use, and the existence of Tier 2 vehicles that use a different speciation profile.
Other than California, this sector includes all non-refueling onroad mobile emissions (exhaust,
evaporative, brake wear and tire wear modes) except exhaust mode gasoline PM and naphthalene
emissions that are provided in the on_moves_startpm and on_moves_runpm sectors.
11
-------
Onroad PM gasoline running mode sector (on_moves_startpm): Running mode MOVES2010a year
2030 future-year state-month estimates for PM and naphthalene, apportioned to the county level
using NMIM 2030 state-county ratios matched to vehicle and road types. The reference case does
not include HDGHG or RFS2 impacts, but does include LDGHG impacts. Use future-year
temperature adjustment file for adjusting the 72ฐF emissions to ambient temperatures (for elemental
and organic carbon) based on grid cell hourly temperature (note that lower temperatures result in
increased emissions).
Onroad PM gasoline start mode sector (on_moves_startpm): Cold start MOVES2010a future-year
2012 and 2014 state-month estimates for PM and naphthalene, apportioned to the county level using
NMEVI2030 state-county ratios of local urban and rural roads by vehicle type. The reference case
does not include HDGHG or RFS2 impacts, but does include LDGHG impacts. Use future-year
temperature adjustment file for adjusting the 72ฐF emissions (for elemental and organic carbon) to
ambient temperatures based on grid cell hourly temperatures (lower temperatures result in increased
emissions).
Other nonroad/nonpoint (othar): No growth or control.
Other onroad sector (othon): No growth or control.
Other nonroad/nonpoint (othar): No growth or control.
Other point (othpt): No growth or control.
Biogenic: 2005 emissions used for all future-year scenarios.
12
-------
Table 4-1 summarizes the control strategies and growth assumptions by source type that were used to create
the 2030 base-case emissions from the 2005v4.2 base-case inventories. All Mexico, Canada, and offshore
oil emissions are unchanged in all future cases from those in the 2005 base case. Note that mercury (Hg) is
listed in the pollutants column; however, we did not include Hg in our v4.2-based HDGHG modeling.
Lists of the control, closures, projection packets (datasets) used to create the HDGHG 2030 future reference
case scenario inventories from the 2005 HDGHG base case are provided in Appendix D.
The remainder of this section is organized either by source sector or by specific emissions category within a
source sector for which a distinct set of data were used or developed for the purpose of projections for the
HDGHG Rule. This organization allows consolidation of the discussion of the emissions categories that are
contained in multiple sectors, because the data and approaches used across the sectors are consistent and do
not need to be repeated. Sector names associated with the emissions categories are provided in parentheses.
13
-------
Table 4-1. Control strategies and growth assumptions for creating the 2030 Reference case emissions
inventories from the 2005 base case
Control Strategies and/or growth assumptions
(grouped by affected pollutants or standard and approach used to
apply to the inventory)
Pollutants
affected
Approach/
Reference
Non-EGU Point (ptnonipm sector) projection approaches
MACT rules, national, VOC: national applied bv SCC, MACT
Boat Manufacturing
Wood Building Products Surface Coating
Generic MACT II: Spandex Production, Ethylene manufacture
Large Appliances
Miscellaneous Organic NESHAP (MON): Alkyd Resins, Chelating Agents, Explosives,
Phthalate Plasticizers, Polyester Resins, Polymerized Vinylidene Chloride
Reinforced Plastics
Asphalt Processing & Roofing
Iron & Steel Foundries
Metal: Can, Coil
Metal Furniture
Miscellaneous Metal Parts & Products
Municipal Solid Waste Landfills
Paper and Other Web
Plastic Parts
Plywood and Composite Wood Products
Carbon Black Production
Cyanide Chemical Manufacturing
Friction Products Manufacturing
Leather Finishing Operations
Miscellaneous Coating Manufacturing
Organic Liquids Distribution (Non-Gasoline)
Refractory Products Manufacturing
Sites Remediation
Consent decrees on companies (based on information from the Office of Enforcement
and Compliance Assurance - OECA) apportioned to plants owned/operated by the
companies
DOJ Settlements: plant SCC controls for:
Alcoa, TX
Premcor (formerly Motiva), DE
Refinery Consent Decrees: plant/SCC controls
Hazardous Waste Combustion
Municipal Waste Combustor Reductions -plant level
Hospital/Medical/Infectious Waste Incinerator Regulations
Large Municipal Waste Combustors - growth applied to specific plants
MACT rules, plant-level, VOC: Auto Plants
MACT rules, plant-level, PM & SO2: Lime Manufacturing
MACT rules, plant-level, PM: Taconite Ore
NESHAP: Portland Cement (09/09/10) - plant level based on Industrial Sector
Integrated Solutions (ISIS) policy emissions in 2013. The ISIS results are from the
ISIS-Cement model runs for the NESHAP and NSPS analysis of July 28, 2010 and
include closures.
Livestock Emissions Growth from year 2002 to year 2030 (some farms in the point
inventory)
Gasoline Stage II growth and control from year 2005 to year 2030 based on MOVES
2030 reference and 2005 state-level ratios
New York ozone SIP controls
Additional plant and unit closures provided by state, regional, and the EPA agencies and
additional consent decrees. Includes updates from CSAPR comments.
VOC
VOC, CO, NOx,
PM, SO2
All
NOx, PM, SO2
PM
PM
NOX, PM, SO2
All (including Hg)
VOC
PM, SO2
PM
Hg, NOX, SO2,
PM, HC1
NH3,PM
VOC
VOC, NOX,
HAP VOC
All
EPA, 2007a
1
2
3
4
5
EPA, 2005
5
6
7
8
13; EPA,
2010
9
11
14
19
14
-------
Emission reductions resulting from controls put on specific boiler units (not due to
MACT) after 2005, identified through analysis of the control data gathered from the
Information Collection Request (ICR) from the Industrial/Commercial/Institutional
Boiler NESHAP.
Reciprocating Internal Combustion Engines (RICE) NESHAP
Replaced 2005 with 2008 emissions for Corn Products International, Cook County,
Illinois, due to the shutdown of 3 boilers and addition of a new boiler (subject to
Prevention of Significant Deterioration and Requirements). Agency Identifier:
031012ABI(ILEPA)
State fuel sulfur content rules for fuel oil -effective only in Maine, New Jersey, and New
York
NOX, SO2, HC1
NOX, CO, PM,
S02
All
S02
Section 4.2.6
15
16
17
Nonpoint (nonpt sector) projection approaches
Municipal Waste Landfills: projection factor of 0.25 applied
Livestock Emissions Growth from year 2002 to year 2030
Residential Wood Combustion Growth and Change-outs from year 2005 to year 2030
Gasoline Stage II growth and control from year 2005 to year 2030 based on MOVES
2030 reference and 2005 state-level ratios
Portable Fuel Container Mobile Source Air Toxics Rule 2 (MSAT2) inventory growth
and control from year 2005 to year 2030
RICE NESHAP
Use Phase II WRAP 2018 Oil and Gas
Use 2008 Oklahoma and Texas Oil and Gas, and apply year 2021 projections for TX
(last year available), and RICE NESHAP controls to Oklahoma emissions.
New York, Connecticut, and Virginia ozone SIP controls
State fuel sulfur content rules for fuel oil -effective only in Maine, New Jersey, and New
York
All
NH3,PM
All
voc
voc
NOX, CO, VOC,
PM, SO2
VOC, S02, NOX,
CO
VOC, S02, NOX,
CO,PM
VOC
S02
EPA, 2007a
9
10
11
12
15
Section 4.2.7
Section 4.2.7
14, 18
17
APPROACHES/REFERENCES- Stationary Sources:
1. Appendix B in the Proposed Toxics Rule TSD:
http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/emch/toxics/proposed toxics rule appendices.pdf
2. For Alcoa consent decree, used http:// cfpub.epa.gov/compliance/cases/index.cfm; for Motiva: used information sent by
State of Delaware
3. Used data provided by the EPA, OAQPS, Sector Policies and Programs Division (SPPD).
4. Obtained from Anne Pope, the US EPA - Hazardous Waste Incinerators criteria and hazardous air pollutant controls
carried over from 2002 Platform, v3.1.
5. Used data provided by the EPA, OAQPS SPPD expert.
6. Percent reductions and plants to receive reductions based on recommendations by rule lead engineer, and are consistent
with the reference: EPA, 2007a
7. Percent reductions recommended are determined from the existing plant estimated baselines and estimated reductions as
shown in the Federal Register Notice for the rule. SO2 percent reduction are computed by 6,147/30,783 = 20% and
PM10 and PM2 5 reductions are computed by 3,786/13,588 = 28%
8. Same approach as used in the 2006 Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR), which estimated reductions of "PM emissions by
10,538 tpy, a reduction of about 62%." Used same list of plants as were identified based on tonnage and SCCfrom
CAIR: http://www.envinfo.com/caain/June04updates/tiop fr2.pdf
9. Except for dairy cows and turkeys (no growth), based on animal population growth estimates from the US Department
of Agriculture (USDA) and the Food and Agriculture Policy and Research Institute. See Section 3.2.1.
10. Growth and Decline in woodstove types based on industry trade group data, See Section.
11. VOC emission ratios of year 2016 (linear interpolation between 2015 and 2020) -specific from year 2005 from the
National Mobile Inventory Model (NMIM) results for onroad refueling including activity growth from VMT, Stage II
control programs at gasoline stations, and phase in of newer vehicles with onboard Stage II vehicle controls.
12. VOC and benzene emissions for year 2016 (linear interpolation between 2015 and 2020) from year 2002 fromMSAT2
15
-------
rule (EPA, 2007b)
13. Data files for the cement sector provided by Elineth Torres, the EPA-SPPD, from the analysis done for the Cement
NESHAP: The ISIS documentation and analysis for the cement NESHAP/NSPS is in the docket of that rulemaking-
docket # EPA-HQ-OAR-2002-005. The Cement NESHAP is in the Federal Register: September 9, 2010 (Volume 75,
Number 174, Page 54969-55066
14. New York NOX and VOC reductions obtained from Appendix J in NY Department of Environmental Conservation
Implementation Plan for Ozone (February 2008): http://www.dec.nv.gov/docs/airjdf/NYMASIP7final.pdf See
Section 3.2.6.
15. Appendix F in the Proposed Toxics Rule TSD:
http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/emch/toxics/proposed toxics rule appendices.pdf
16. The 2008 data used came from Illinois' submittal of 2008 emissions to the NEI.
17. Based on available, enforceable state sulfur rules as of November, 2010:
http://www.ilta.org/LegislativeandRegulatoryMVNRLM/NEUSASulfur%20Rules 09.2010.pdf.
rmp://www.mainelegislature.org/legis/bmsybms_124th/bmpdfs/SP062701 .pdf.
http://switchboard.nrdc.org/blogs/rkassel/govemorjaterson signs new la.html.
http://green.blogs.nvtimes.com/2010/07/20/new-vork-mandates-cleaner-heating-oil/
18. VOC reductions in Connecticut and Virginia obtained from CSAPR comments.
19. Appendix D of Cross-State Air Pollution Rule:
ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/2005v4 2/transportrulefmal eitsd appendices 28jun2011.pdf
Onroad mobile and nonroad mobile controls
(list includes all key mobile control strategies but is not exhaustive)
National Onroad Rules:
Tier 2 Rule: Signature date February, 2000
2007 Onroad Heavy-Duty Rule: February, 2009
Final Mobile Source Air Toxics Rule (MSAT2): February, 2007
Renewable Fuel Standard: March, 2010
Local Onroad Programs:
National Low Emission Vehicle Program (NLEV): March, 1998
Ozone Transport Commission (OTC) LEV Program: January, 1995
National Nonroad Controls:
Clean Air Nonroad Diesel Final Rule - Tier 4 : June, 2004
Control of Emissions from Nonroad Large-Spark Ignition Engines and Recreational
Engines (Marine and Land Based): "Pentathalon Rule": November, 2002
Clean Bus USA Program: October, 2007
Control of Emissions of Air Pollution from Locomotives and Marine Compression-Ignition
Engines Less than 30 Liters per Cylinder: October, 2008
Aircraft:
Itinerant (ITN) operations at airports to year 2030
Locomotives:
Energy Information Administration (EIA) fuel consumption projections for freight rail
Clean Air Nonroad Diesel Final Rule - Tier 4 : June 2004
Locomotive Emissions Final Rulemaking, December 17, 1997
Control of Emissions of Air Pollution from Locomotives and Marine: May 2008
Commercial Marine:
Category 3 marine diesel engines Clean Air Act and International Maritime Organization
standards (April, 30, 2010) -also includes CSAPR comments.
EIA fuel consumption projections for diesel-fueled vessels
OTAQ ECA C3 Base 2030 inventory for residual-fueled vessels
Clean Air Nonroad Diesel Final Rule - Tier 4
Emissions Standards for Commercial Marine Diesel Engines, December 29, 1999
Tier 1 Marine Diesel Engines, February 28, 2003
APPROACHES/REFERENCES - Mobile Sources
1. http ://epa. go v/otaq/hwv . htm
2. Onlv for states submitting these inputs: http://www.epa.sov/otaq/lev-nlev.htm
3 . http ://www. epa. sov/nonroad-diesel/2004fr. htm
4. http://www.epa.gov/cleanschoolbus/
all
VOC
all
all
all
all
1
2
3,4,5
6
EPA, 2009;
3; 4; 5
7, 3; EPA,
2009
16
-------
5. http://www.epa.gov/otaq/marinesi.htm
6. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Terminal Area Forecast (TAP) System, January 2010:
http ://www. apo. data.faa. gov/main/taf.asp
7. http://www.epa.gov/otaq/oceanvessels.htm
4.1 Stationary source projections: EGU sector (ptipm)
The future-year data for the ptipm sector used in the air quality modeling were created using version 4.10
(v4.10) of the Integrated Planning Model (IPM) (http://www.epa.gov/airmarkt/progsregs/epa-
ipm/index.html). The IPM is a multiregional, dynamic, deterministic linear programming model of the U.S.
electric power sector. Version 4.10 reflects state rules and consent decrees through December 1, 2010 and
incorporates information on existing controls collected through the Information Collection Request (ICR),
and information from comments received on the IPM-related Notice of Data Availability (NOD A) published
on September 1, 2010. IPM v4.10 Final included the addition of over 20 GW of existing Activated Carbon
Injection (ACI) reported to the EPA via the ICR. Units with 862 or NOx advanced controls (e.g., scrubber,
SCR) that were not required to run for compliance with Title IV, New Source Review (NSR), state
settlements, or state-specific rules were modeled by IPM to either operate those controls or not based on
economic efficiency parameters.
Updates to IPM 4.10 (with respect to the version released in the IPM NODA version) include adjustments to
assumptions regarding the performance of acid gas control technologies, new costs imposed on fuel-
switching (e.g., bituminous to sub-bituminous), correction of lignite availability to some plants,
incorporation of additional planned retirements, a more inclusive implementation of the scrubber upgrade
option, and the availability of a scrubber retrofit to waste-coal fired fluidized bed combustion units without
an existing scrubber. Further details on the future-year EGU emissions inventory used for this rule can be
found in the incremental documentation of the IPM v.4.10 platform, available at
http://www.epa.gov/airmarkets/progsregs/epa-ipm/BaseCasev410.html. Note that this year 2030 IPM run
includes the version 4.10 NODA CSAPR Proposal (not Final) emissions and does not include the Mercury
and Air Toxics (MATS) Rule impacts (proposal or final), which was proposed on March 16, 2011. In
addition, the Boiler MACT was not represented because the rule was not final at the time the HDGHG
modeling was performed.
Directly emitted PM emissions (i.e., PM2.5 and PMio) from the EGU sector are computed via a post
processing routine which applies emission factors to the IPM-estimated fuel throughput based on fuel,
configuration and controls to compute the filterable and condensable components of PM. This methodology
is documented in the IPM CSAPR TSD.
4.2 Stationary source projections: non-EGU sectors (ptnonipm, nonpt, ag,
afdust)
To project U.S. stationary sources other than the ptipm sector, we applied growth factors and/or controls to
certain categories within the ptnonipm, nonpt, ag and afdust platform sectors. This subsection provides
details on the data and projection methods used for these sectors. In estimating future-year emissions, we
assumed that emissions growth does not track with economic growth for many stationary non-IPM sources.
This "no-growth" assumption is based on an examination of historical emissions and economic data. More
details on the rationale for this approach can be found in Appendix D of the Regulatory Impact Assessment
for the PM NAAQS rule (EPA, 2006).
The starting point was the emission projections done for the 2005v4.2 platform for the CSAPR, which
incorporated responses to public comments on the modeling inventories. The 2012 and 2014 projection
17
-------
factors developed for the CSAPR (see http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/emch/index.htmltffinal) were updated to
reflect year 2030 projections.
Year-specific projection factors for year 2030 were used for creating the 2030 reference case unless noted
otherwise. Growth factors (and control factors) are provided in the following sections where feasible.
However, some sectors used growth or control factors that varied geographically and their contents could not
be provided in the following sections (e.g., gasoline distribution varies by state and pollutant and has
hundreds of records).
4.2.1 Livestock emissions growth (ag, afdust)
Growth in ammonia (NHa) and dust (PMio and PM^.s) emissions from livestock in the ag and afdust and
ptnonipm sectors was based on projections of growth in animal population. Table 4-2 provides the growth
factors from the 2005 base-case emissions to 2030 for animal categories applied to the ag, afdust, and
ptnonipm sectors for livestock-related SCCs. For example, year 2030 beef emissions are 3.85% larger than
the 2005 base-case emissions. Except for dairy cows and turkey production, the animal projection factors
are derived from national-level animal population projections from the U.S. Department of Agriculture
(USDA) and the Food and Agriculture Policy and Research Institute (FAPRI). For dairy cows and turkeys,
we assumed that there would be no growth in emissions. This assumption was based on an analysis of
historical trends in the number of such animals compared to production rates. Although productions rates
have increased, the number of animals has declined. Thus, we do not believe that production forecasts
provide representative estimates of the future number of cows and turkeys; therefore, we did not use these
forecasts for estimating future-year emissions from these animals. In particular, the dairy cow population is
projected to decrease in the future as it has for the past few decades; however, milk production will be
increasing over the same period. Note that the ammonia emissions from dairies are not directly related to
animal population but also nitrogen excretion. With the cow numbers going down and the production going
up we suspect the excretion value will be changing, but we assumed no change because we did not have a
quantitative estimate.
The inventory for livestock emissions used 2002 emissions values therefore, our projection method projected
from 2002 rather than from 2005.
Appendix E in the 2002v3 platform documentation provides the animal population data and regression
curves used to derive the growth factors:
http://www.epa.gov/scram001/reports/Emissions%20TSD%20Vol2_Appendices_01-l5-08.pdf Appendix F
in the same document provides the cross references of livestock sources in the ag, afdust and ptnonipm
sectors to the animal categories in Table 4-2.
Table 4-2. Growth factors from year 2005 to 2030 for Animal Operations
Animal Category
Dairy Cow
Beef
Pork
Broilers
Turkeys
Layers
Poultry Average
Overall Average
Projection
Factor
1.0000
1.0385
1.1666
1.6426
1.0000
1.4491
1.4991
1.1745
18
-------
4.2.2 Residential wood combustion growth (nonpt)
We projected residential wood combustion emissions based on the expected increase in the number of low-
emitting wood stoves and the corresponding decrease in other types of wood stoves. As newer, cleaner
woodstoves replace older, higher-polluting wood stoves, there will be an overall reduction of the emissions
from these sources. The approach cited here was developed as part of a modeling exercise to estimate the
expected benefits of the woodstoves change-out program (http://www.epa.gov/burnwise). Details of this
approach can be found in Section 2.3.3 of the PM NAAQS Regulatory Impact Analysis (EPA, 2006).
The specific assumptions we made were:
Fireplaces, source category code (SCC)=2104008001: increase 1%/year
Old woodstoves, SCC=2104008002, 2104008010, or 2104008051: decrease 2%/year
New woodstoves, SCC=2104008003, 2104008004, 2104008030, 2104008050, 2104008052 or
2104008053: increase 2%/year
For the general woodstoves and fireplaces category (SCC 2104008000) we computed a weighted average
distribution based on 19.4% fireplaces, 71.6% old woodstoves, 9.1% new woodstoves using 2002v3
Platform missions for PM2.5. These fractions are based on the fraction of emissions from these processes in
the states that did not have the "general woodstoves and fireplaces" SCC in the 2002v3 NEI. This approach
results in an overall decrease of 1.056% per year for this source category. Table 4-3 presents the projection
factors used to project the 2005 base case (2002 emissions) for residential wood combustion.
Table 4-3. Projection Factors for growing year 2005 Residential Wood Combustion Sources
SCC
2104008000
2104008001
2104008070
2104008002
2104008010
2104008051
2104008003
2104008004
2104008030
2104008050
2104008052
2104008053
SCC Description
Total: Woodstoves and Fireplaces
Fireplaces: General
Outdoor Wood Burning Equipment
Fireplaces: Insert; non-EPA certified
Woodstoves: General
Non-catalytic Woodstoves: Non-EPA certified
Fireplaces: Insert; EPA certified; non-catalytic
Fireplaces: Insert; EPA certified; catalytic
Catalytic Woodstoves: General
Non-catalytic Woodstoves: EPA certified
Non-catalytic Woodstoves: Low Emitting
Non-catalytic Woodstoves: Pellet Fired
Projection
Factor
0.7043
1.28
0.44
1.56
4.2.3 Gasoline Stage II growth and control (nonpt, ptnonipm)
Emissions from Stage II gasoline operations in the 2005 base case are contained in both nonpt and ptnonipm
sectors. The only SCC in the nonpt inventory used for gasoline Stage II emissions is 2501060100 (Storage
and Transport; Petroleum and Petroleum Product Storage; Gasoline Service Stations; Stage II: Total). The
following SIC and SCC codes are associated with gasoline Stage II emissions in the ptnonipm sector:
SIC 5541 (Automotive Dealers & Service Stations, Gasoline Service Stations, Gasoline service
stations)
SCC 40600401 (Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation;Transportation and Marketing of Petroleum
Products;Filling Vehicle Gas Tanks - Stage II; Vapor Loss w/o Controls)
19
-------
SCC 40600402 (Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation;Transportation and Marketing of Petroleum
Products;Filling Vehicle Gas Tanks - Stage II;Liquid Spill Loss w/o Controls)
SCC 40600403 (Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation;Transportation and Marketing of Petroleum
Products;Filling Vehicle Gas Tanks - Stage II; Vapor Loss w/o Controls)
SCC 40600499 (Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation;Transportation and Marketing of Petroleum
Products;Filling Vehicle Gas Tanks - Stage II;Not Classified
We used a consistent approach across nonpt and ptnonipm to project these gasoline stage II emissions. The
approach involved computing state-level VOC-specific projection factors from the state-level
MOVES2010a-based results for onroad refueling, using ratios of future-year 2030 refueling emissions to
2005 base-case emissions. The approach accounts for three elements of refueling growth and control: (1)
activity growth (due to VMT growth as input into MOVES2010a), (2) emissions reductions from Stage II
control programs at gasoline stations, and (3) emissions reductions resulting from the phase-in over time of
newer vehicles with onboard Stage II vehicle controls. We assumed that all areas with Stage II controls in
2005 continue to have Stage II controls in 2030.
We computed VOC, benzene and naphthalene projection factors at a county-specific, annual resolution as
shown below; note that naphthalene, while provided by MOVES2010a, is not used in the HDGHG Rule:
PF_VOC[state, future year] = VOC_RFL[state, future year]/VOC_RFL[state, 2005],
PF_BENZENE[state, future year] = BENZENE_RFL[state, future year]/ BENZENE _RFL[state, 2005], and
PF_NAPHTHALENE[state, future year] = PF_VOC [state, future year]
where VOC_RFL is the VOC refueling emissions for onroad sources from MOVES2010a, and
BENZENE_RFL is the BENZENE refueling emissions for onroad sources from MOVES2010a
We applied these projection factors to both nonpt and ptnonipm sector gasoline stage II sources.
Chemical speciation uses certain VOC HAPs for some sources, specifically, benzene, acetaldehyde,
formaldehyde, and methanol (BAFM). The VOC HAPs are used for sources that have consistent VOC and
VOC HAPs using various criteria as described in the SectionError! Reference source not found, in the
CSAPR TSD (ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/2005v4 2/transportrulefinal eitsd 28iun2011.pdf). and these
sources are called "integrated" sources. The nonpoint gasoline stage II emissions are an integrated source,
and so the VOC HAPs are also projected based on ratios of future-year and base-year VOC. The only two
VOC HAPs emitted from refueling are benzene and naphthalene, and both of these were projected
consistently with VOC. However, naphthalene was not used in the chemical speciation (it is not B,A,F or M
pollutant) and was therefore not used for this effort. Therefore, only benzene was used as part of the
speciation for the nonpt sector gasoline stage II sources. The entire ptnonipm inventory is considered "no-
integrate" because VOC and VOC HAP emission estimates were not found to be of the same (consistent)
data source. Therefore ptnonipm gasoline stage II sources did not use the projected benzene as part of the
speciation, but rather used VOC speciation to estimate benzene.
4.2.4 Portable fuel container growth and control (nonpt)
We obtained future-year VOC emissions from Portable Fuel Containers (PFCs) from inventories developed
and modeled for the EPA's MSAT2 rule (EPA, 2007b). The 10 PFC SCCs are summarized below (note that
the full SCC descriptions for these SCCs include "Storage and Transport; Petroleum and Petroleum Product
Storage" as the beginning of the description).
2501011011 Residential Portable Fuel Containers: Permeation
20
-------
2501011012 Residential Portable Fuel Containers:
2501011013 Residential Portable Fuel Containers:
2501011014 Residential Portable Fuel Containers:
2501011015 Residential Portable Fuel Containers:
2501012011 Commercial Portable Fuel Containers
2501012012 Commercial Portable Fuel Containers
2501012013 Commercial Portable Fuel Containers
2501012014 Commercial Portable Fuel Containers
2501012015 Commercial Portable Fuel Containers
Evaporation
Spillage During Transport
Refilling at the Pump: Vapor Displacement
Refilling at the Pump: Spillage
: Permeation
: Evaporation
: Spillage During Transport
: Refilling at the Pump: Vapor Displacement
: Refilling at the Pump: Spillage
Additional information on the PFC inventories is available in Section 2.2.3 of the documentation for the
2002 Platform (http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/emch/index.htmltf2002).
The future-year emissions reflect projected increases in fuel consumption, state programs to reduce PFC
emissions, standards promulgated in the MSAT2 rule, and impacts of the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) on
gasoline volatility. Future-year emissions for PFCs were available for 2010, 2015, 2020, and 2030. Benzene
was used in VOC speciation for the air quality model through the modification of VOC speciation profiles
calculations (no other BAFM HAPs are emitted from PFCs).
4.2.5 Aircraft growth (ptnonipm)
These 2005 point-source emissions are projected to future years by applying activity growth using data on
itinerant (ITN) operations at airports. The ITN operations are defined as aircraft take-offs whereby the
aircraft leaves the airport vicinity and lands at another airport, or aircraft landings whereby the aircraft has
arrived from outside the airport vicinity. We used projected ITN information available from the Federal
Aviation Administration's (FAA) Terminal Area Forecast (TAP) System:
http://www.apo.data.faa.gov/main/taf.asp (publication date January 2010). This information is available for
approximately 3,300 individual airports, for all years up to 2030. We aggregated and applied this
information at the national level by summing the airport-specific (U.S. airports only) ITN operations to
national totals by year and by aircraft operation, for each of the four available operation types: commercial,
general, air taxi and military. We computed growth factors for each operation type by dividing future-year
ITN by 2005-year ITN. We assigned factors to inventory SCCs based on the operation type.
The methods that the FAA used for developing the ITN data in the TAP are documented in:
http://www.faa.gov/data research/aviation/aerospace forecasts/2009-
2025/media/2009%20Forecast%20Doc.pdf
Table 4-4 provides the national growth factors for aircraft; all factors are applied to year 2005 emissions.
For example, year 2030 commercial aircraft emissions are 50.59% higher than year 2005 emissions.
Table 4-4. Factors used to project 2005 base-case aircraft emissions to year 2030
sec
2275001000
2275020000
2275050000
2275060000
27501015
27502001
27502011
SCC Description
Military aircraft
Commercial aircraft
General aviation
Air taxi
Internal Combustion Engines;Fixed Wing Aircraft L & TO
Exhaust;Military; Jet Engine: JP-5
Internal Combustion Engines;Fixed Wing Aircraft L & TO
Exhaust;Commercial;Piston Engine: Aviation Gas
Internal Combustion Engines;Fixed Wing Aircraft L & TO
Projection Factor
1.0275
1.5059
0.9916
1.0259
1.0275
1.5059
1.5059
21
-------
sec
27505001
27505011
27601014
27601015
SCC Description
Exhaust;Commercial;Jet Engine: Jet A
Internal Combustion Engines;Fixed Wing Aircraft L & TO
Exhaust;Civil;Piston Engine: Aviation Gas
Internal Combustion Engines;Fixed Wing Aircraft L & TO
Exhaust; Civil; Jet Engine: Jet A
Internal Combustion Engines;Rotary Wing Aircraft L & TO
Exhaust;Military; Jet Engine: JP-4
Internal Combustion Engines;Rotary Wing Aircraft L & TO
Exhaust;Military; Jet Engine: JP-5
Projection Factor
0.9916
0.9916
1.0275
1.0275
We did not apply growth factors to any point sources with SCC 27602011 (Internal Combustion Engines;
Rotary Wing Aircraft L & TO Exhaust; Commercial; Jet Engine: Jet A) because the facility names
associated with these point sources appeared to represent industrial facilities rather than airports. This SCC
is only in one county, Santa Barbara, California (State/County FIPS 06083).
None of our aircraft emission projections account for any control programs. We considered the NOx
standard adopted by the International Civil Aviation Organization's (ICAO) Committee on Aviation
Environmental Protection (CAEP) in February 2004, which is expected to reduce NOx by approximately 2%
in 2015 and 3% in 2020. However, this rule, signed July 2011 (see http://www.epa.gov/otaq/aviation.htm),
was not adopted as an EPA (or U.S.) rule prior to JHDGHG modeling; therefore, the effects of this rule were
not included in the future-year emissions projections.
4.2.6 Stationary source control programs, consent decrees & settlements, and plant
closures (ptnonipm, nonpt)
We applied emissions reduction factors to the 2005 emissions for particular sources in the ptnonipm and
nonpt sectors to reflect the impact of stationary-source control programs including consent decrees,
settlements, and plant closures. Some of the controls described in this section were obtained from comments
on the CSAPR proposal. Here we describe the contents of the controls and closures for the 2030 reference
case. Detailed summaries of the impacts of the control programs are provided in Appendix D of the CSAPR
TSD: ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/2005v4 2/transportrulefmal eitsd appendices 28jun2011.pdf
Controls from the NOx SIP call were assumed to have been implemented by 2005 and captured in the 2005
base case (2005v2 point inventory). This assumption was confirmed by review of the 2005 NEI that showed
reductions from Large Boiler/Turbines and Large Internal Combustion Engines in the Northeast states
covered by the NOx SIP call. The future-year base controls consist of the following:
We did not include MACT rules where compliance dates were prior to 2005, because we assumed
these were already reflected in the 2005 inventory. The EPA OAQPS Sector Policies and Programs
Division (SPPD) provided all controls information related to the MACT rules, and this information is
as consistent as possible with the preamble emissions reduction percentages for these rules.
Various emissions reductions from the CSAPR comments, including but not limited to: fuel
switching at units, shutdowns, future-year emission limits, ozone SIP VOC controls for some sources
in Virginia and Connecticut, and state and local control programs.
Evolutionary information gathering of plant closures (i.e., emissions were zeroed out for future years)
were also included where information indicated that the plant was actually closed after the 2005 base
year and prior to CSAPR and HDGHG modeling that began in the fall of 2010. We also applied unit
and plant closures received from the CSAPR comments. However, plants projected to close in the
future (post-2010) were not removed in the future years because these projections can be inaccurate
22
-------
due to economic improvements. We also applied cement kiln (unit) and cement plant closures
discussed later in Section 4.2.6.1. More detailed information on the overall state-level impacts of all
control programs and projection datasets, including units and plants closed in the 2012 and 2014
base-case ptnonipm inventories are provided in Appendix D of the CSAPR TSD:
ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/2005v4_2/transportrulefmal_eitsd_appendices_28jun2011.pdf The
magnitude of all unit and plant closures on the non-EGU point (ptnonipm) sector 2005 base-case
emissions is shown in Table 4-5 below.
Table 4-5. Summary of Non-EGU Emission Reductions Applied to the 2005 Inventory due to Unit and
Plant Closures
Reductions
CO
125,162
NH3
636
NOX
109,237
PM10
21,143
PM2.5
12,600
S02
190,734
voc
26,750
In addition to plant closures, we included the effects of the Department of Justice Settlements and
Consent Decrees on the non-EGU (ptnonipm) sector emissions. We also included estimated impacts
of HAP standards per Section 112, 129 of the Clean Air Act on the non-EGU (ptnonipm) and
nonpoint (nonpt) sector emissions, based on expected CAP co-benefits to sources in these sectors.
Numerous controls have compliance dates beyond 2008; these include refinery and the Office of
Compliance and Enforcement (OECA) consent decrees, Department of Justice (DOJ) settlements, as
well as most national VOC MACT controls. Additional OECA consent decree information is
provided in Appendix B of the Proposed Toxics Rule TSD:
http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/emch/toxics/proposed_toxics_rule_appendices.pdf The detailed data
used are available at the website listed in Section 1.
Refinery consent decrees controls at the facility and SCC level (collected through internal
coordination on refineries by the EPA).
Fuel sulfur fuel limits were enforceable for Maine, New Jersey and New York. These fuel limits
were incremental and not applicable until after 2012.
Criteria air pollutant (cap) reductions a cobenefit to RICE NESHAP controls, including SO2 RICE
cobenefit controls.
We applied New York State Implementation Plan available controls for the 1997 8-hour Ozone
standard for non-EGU point and nonpoint NOx and VOC sources based on NY State Department of
Environmental Conservation February 2008 guidance. These reductions are found in Appendix J in:
http://www.dec.ny.gov/docs/air pdf7NYMASIP7final.pdf See Section 3.2.6 in the CSAPR TSD:
ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/2005v4_2/transportrulefmal_eitsd_28jun2011 .pdf.
Most of the control programs were applied as replacement controls, which means that any existing percent
reductions ("baseline control efficiency") reported in the NEI were removed prior to the addition of the
percent reductions due to these control programs. Exceptions to replacement controls are "additional"
controls, which ensure that the controlled emissions match desired reductions regardless of the baseline
control efficiencies in the NEI. We used the "additional controls" approach for many permit limits,
settlements and consent decrees where specific plant and multiple-plant-level reductions/targets were desired
and at municipal waste landfills where VOC was reduced 75% via a MACT control using projection factors
ofO.25.
23
-------
4.2.6.1 Reductions from the Portland Cement NESHAP
As indicated in Table 4-1, the Industrial Sectors Integrated Solutions (ISIS) model (EPA, 2010) was used to
project the cement industry component of the ptnonipm emissions modeling sector to 2013. There were no
future year estimates for year 2030, so 2013 estimates were used for the 2030 Reference case. This approach
provided reductions of criteria and hazardous air pollutants, including mercury. The ISIS cement emissions
were developed in support for the Portland Cement NESHAPs and the NSPS for the Portland cement
manufacturing industry.
The ISIS model produced a Portland Cement NESHAP policy case of multi-pollutant emissions for
individual cement kilns (emission inventory units) that were relevant for years 2013 through 2017. These
ISIS-based emissions included information on new cement kilns, facility and unit-level closures, and updated
policy case emissions at existing cement kilns. The units that opened or closed before 2010 were included in
the projections as were the ISIS-based policy case predictions of emissions reductions and activity growth.
The ISIS model results for the future show a continuation of the recent trend in the cement sector of the
replacement of lower capacity, inefficient wet and long dry kilns with bigger and more efficient preheater
and precalciner kilns. Multiple regulatory requirements such as the NESHAP and NSPS currently apply to
the cement industry to reduce CAP and HAP emissions. Additionally, state and local regulatory
requirements might apply to individual cement facilities depending on their locations relative to ozone and
PM2.5 nonattainment areas. The ISIS model provides the emission reduction strategy that balances: 1)
optimal (least cost) industry operation, 2) cost-effective controls to meet the demand for cement, and 3)
emission reduction requirements over the time period of interest. Table 4-6 shows the magnitude of the
ISIS-based cement industry reductions in the future-year emissions that represent 2013 (and 2030 for
HDGHG), and the impact that these reductions have on total stationary non-EGU point source (ptnonipm)
emissions.
Table 4-6. Future-year ISIS-based cement industry annual reductions (tons/yr)
for the non-EGU (ptnonipm) sector
Pollutant
NOX
PM2.5
S02
VOC
HC1
Cement Industry
emissions in 2005
193,000
14,400
128,400
6,900
2,900
Decrease in cement
industry emissions
in 2030 vs 2005
56,740
7,840
106,000
5,570
2,220
% decrease in
ptnonipm from
cement reduction
2.4%
1.8%
5.0%
0.4%
4.5%
4.2.6.2 Boiler reductions not associated with the MACT rule
The Boiler MACT ICR collected data on existing controls. We used an early version of a data base
developed for that rulemaking entitled "survey_database_2008_results2.mdb" (EPA-HQ-OAR-2002-0058-
0788) which is posted under the Technical Information for the Boiler MACT major source rule
(http://www.epa.gov/ttn/atw/boiler/boilerpg.html). We extracted all controls that were installed after 2005,
determined a percent reduction, and verified with source owners that these controls were actively in use. In
many situations we learned that the controls were on site but were not in use. A summary of the plant-unit
specific reductions that were verified to be actively in use are summarized in Table 4-7.
24
-------
Table 4-7. State-level non-MACT Boiler Reductions from ICR Data Gathering
State
Michigan
North Carolina
Virginia
Washington
North Carolina
Pollutant
NOX
S02
S02
SO2
HC1
Pre- controlled
Emissions
(tons)
907
652
3379
639
31
Controlled
Emissions
(tons)
544
65
338
383
3
Reductions
(tons)
363
587
3041
256
28
Percent
Reduction
%
40
90
90
40
90
4.2.6.3 RICE NESHAP
There are three rulemakings for National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAP) for
Reciprocating Internal Combustion Engines (RICE). These rules reduce HAPs from existing and new RICE
sources. In order to meet the standards, existing sources with certain types of engines will need to install
controls. In addition to reducing HAPs, these controls also reduce CAPs, specifically, CO, NOx, VOC, PM,
and SO2. In 2014 and beyond, compliance dates have passed for all three rules; thus all three rules are
included in the 2030 HDGHG emissions projection.
The rules can be found at http://www.epa.gov/ttn/atw/rice/ricepg.html and are listed below:
National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants for Reciprocating Internal Combustion
Engines; Final Rule (69 FR 33473) published 06/15/04
National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants for Reciprocating Internal Combustion
Engines; Final Rule (FR 9648 ) published 03/03/10
National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants for Reciprocating Internal Combustion
Engines; Final Rule (75 FR 51570) published 08/20/2010
The difference among these three rules is that they focus on different types of engines, different facility types
(major for HAPs, versus area for HAPs) and different engine sizes based on horsepower (HP). In addition,
they have different compliance dates. We project CAPs from the 2005 NEI RICE sources, based on the
requirements of the rule for existing sources only because the inventory includes only existing sources and
the current projection approach does not estimate emissions from new sources.
A complete discussion on the methodology to estimate RICE controls is provided in Appendix F in the
Proposed MATS Rule TSD:
http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/emch/toxics/proposed_toxics_rule_appendices.pdf Impacts of the RICE
controls on stationary non-EGU emissions (nonpt and ptnonipm sectors), excluding WRAP, Texas, and
Oklahoma oil and gas emissions (see Section 4.2.7) are provided in Table 4-8.
Table 4-8. National Impact of RICE Controls on 2030 Non-EGU Projections
Reductions
CO
116,434
NOX
111,749
PMio
1,595
PM2.5
1,368
S02
21,957
VOC
14,669
4.2.6.4 Fuel sulfur rules
Fuel sulfur rules that were signed (enforceable) at the time of the HDGHG emissions processing are limited
to Maine, New Jersey and New York. Several other states have fuel sulfur rules that were in development
25
-------
but not finalized prior to CSAPR and HDGHG Rule emissions processing:
http://www.ilta.or^LedslativeandReeMlatorvMVNRLM/NEUSASulfur%20Rules 09.2010.pdf.
The fuel sulfur content for all home heating oil SCCs in 2005 is assumed to by 3000 part per million (ppm).
Effective July 1, 2012, New York requires all heating oil sold in New York to contain no more than 15ppm
of sulfur, thus reducing SC>2 emissions by 99.5% for post-2012 (2030) projections. These New York sulfur
content reductions are further discussed here:
http://switchboard.nrdc.org/blogs/rkassel/governorjaterson signs new la.html.
The New Jersey year 2017 standard of 15ppm (assuming SOOppm baseline for Kersone) sulfur content yields
a 96.25% 862 emissions reduction for kersone (fuel #1). The New Jersey sulfur content reductions are
discussed here: http://njtodav.net/2010/09/01/nj-adopts-rule-limiting-sulfur-content-in-fuel-oil/.
The Maine fuel sulfur rule effective January 1, 2014 reduces sulfur to 15ppm, resulting in a 99.5% reduction
from 3000 ppm. These Maine sulfur content reductions are discussed here:
http://www.mainelegislature.org/legis/bills/bills 124th/billpdfs/SP062701 .pdf.
The impact of these fuel sulfur content reductions on SO2 is shown in Table 4-9.
Table 4-9. Impact of Fuel Sulfur Controls on 2014 Non-EGU Projections
State
Maine
New Jersey
New York
Total
SOz Reductions
18,470
998
54,431
73,898
4.2.7 Oil and gas projections in TX, OK, and non-California WRAP states (nonpt)
For the 2005v4.2 platform, we incorporated updated 2005 oil and gas emissions from Texas and Oklahoma.
For Texas oil and gas production, we used the last available future year, year 2021, estimates from the Texas
Commission of Environmental Quality (TCEQ) and used them as described in:
http://www.tceq.state.tx.us/assets/public/implementation/air/am/contracts/reports/ei/5820783985FY0901-
20090715-ergi-Drilling Rig El.pdf
We also received 2008 data for Oklahoma that we used as the best available data to represent 2030. We
utilized the latest available future year, year 2018, Phase II WRAP oil and gas emissions data for the non-
California Western Regional Air Partnership (WRAP) states to represent year 2030. RICE NESHAP
reductions, which are effective by year 2014, were applied to the year 2008 Oklahoma oil and gas inventory
but not applied to the 2021 TCEQ oil and gas estimates or 2018 WRAP Phase II oil and gas inventory.
For Oklahoma, we applied CO, NOx, SO2 and VOC emissions reductions from the RICE NESHAP, which
we assumed has some applicability to this industry (see Appendix F in the Proposed Toxics Rule TSD:
http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/emch/toxics/proposed_toxics_rule_appendices.pdf).
Table 4-10 shows the 2005 and 2030 NOX and SO2 emissions including RICE reductions for Oklahoma.
Table 4-10. Oil and Gas NOx and SO2 Emissions for 2005 and 2030 including additional reductions due to
the RICE NESHAP
NOX
2005
2030
PM2.5
2005
2030
SO2
2005
2030
VOC
2005
2030
26
-------
Alaska
Arizona
Colorado
Montana
Nevada
New Mexico
North Dakota
Oklahoma
Oregon
South Dakota
Texas
Utah
Wyoming
Total
836
13
32,188
10,617
71
61,674
6,040
39,668
61
566
42,854
6,896
36,172
237,656
453
15
33,517
13,880
63
74,648
20,869
42,402
44
557
26,061
6,297
34,142
252,948
1,918
2,945
4,862
2,231
435
2,666
62
350
640
1
369
688
1,014
43
5,977
149
541
9,834
1
11
6
0
12
4
2
0
33
1
3
73
68
37
35,500
9,187
105
215,636
8,988
155,908
19
370
4,337
43,403
166,939
640,498
12
49
43,639
14,110
163
267,846
17,968
163,598
14
562
1,504
81,890
304,748
896,104
4.3 Mobile source projections
The 2030 HDGHG Reference case inventories are identical to 2030 HDGHG Control case inventories except
for the MOVES2010a-based (onroad) emissions (and some gasoline distribution emissions in the ptnonipm
and nonpt sectors). The 2030 Control case inventories are discussed in Section 5.
Mobile source monthly inventories of onroad and nonroad mobile emissions were created for 2030 using a
combination of the NMIM and MOVES2010a models. Future-year emissions reflect onroad mobile control
programs including the Light-Duty Vehicle Tier 2 Rule, the Onroad Heavy-Duty Rule, and the Mobile
Source Air Toxics (MSAT2) final rule. Nonroad mobile emissions reductions for these years include
regulations affecting locomotives, various nonroad engines including diesel engines and various marine
engine types, fuel sulfur content, and evaporative emissions.
Onroad mobile sources are comprised of several components and are discussed in the next subsection (4.3.1).
Nonroad mobile emission projections are discussed in subsection 4.3.1.1. Locomotives and Class 1 and
Class 2 commercial marine vessel (C1/C2 CMV) projections are discussed in subsection 4.3.2, and Class 3
(C3) CMV projected emissions are discussed in subsection 4.3.3.
4.3.1 Onroad mobile (on_noadj, on_moves_runpm, on_moves_startpm)
The onroad emissions were primarily based on the 2010 version of the Motor Vehicle Emissions Simulator
(MOVES2010a) - the same version that was used for 2005 HDGHG. The same MOVES-based PM2.5
temperature adjustment factors were applied as were used in 2005 for running mode emissions; however,
cold start emissions used year-specific temperature adjustment factors. The use of the same temperature
adjustments nationwide for gasoline PM is not a limitation, since the temperature adjustments in MOVES for
gasoline PM do not depend on county-specific inputs.
27
-------
California onroad (on_noadj)
California onroad inventory: California year 2030 complete CAP/HAP onroad inventories are monthly
onroad emissions and are based on March 2007 California Air Resources Board (CARB) data (Martin
Johnson: mjohnson@arb.ca.gov). Like year 2005 emissions, future-year California NHa emissions are from
MOVES runs for California, disaggregated to the county level using NMIM. We estimated HAP emissions
by applying HAP-to-CAP ratios computed from California 2005 NEI submittal provided by EPA in 12/2007.
This was done because the CARB submittal from March 2007 did not include estimates for HAPs. We
retained only those HAPs that were also estimated by NMTM for nonroad mobile sources; all other HAPs
were dropped.
Onroad mobile sector with no adjustment for daily temperature (on_noadj)
As discussed in Section 2, the MOVES2010a model was used for all vehicles, road types, and pollutants.
Vehicle Miles Travelled (VMT) was projected using growth rates from the Department of Energy's
AEO2011. We used MOVES2010a to create emissions by state, SCC, pollutant, emissions mode and month.
We then allocated these emissions to counties using ratios based on 2030 NMIM county-level data by state,
SCC, pollutant, and emissions mode. While the EPA intends to replace this approach with a county-specific
implementation of MOVES for use in future regulatory actions, this approach was the best approach
available at the time of this modeling.
Onroad PM gasoline running and cold start mode sectors (on_moves_startpm and on_moves_runpm)
MOVES-based cold start and running mode emissions consist of gasoline exhaust speciated PM and
naphthalene. These pre-temperature-adjusted emissions at 72ฐF are projected to year 2030 from year 2005
inventories using the 2030-specific runs of MOVES2010a. VMT were projected using growth rates from the
AEO2009. As with the on_noadj sector, the 2030 MOVES2010a data were created at the state-month level,
and the 2030 NMIM results were used to disaggregate the state level results to the county level.
MOVES-based temperature adjustment factors were applied to gridded, hourly emissions using gridded,
hourly meteorology. As seen in Figure 4-1, for year 2030, we used the same temperature adjustment factors
as the 2005 base case for both start and running modes. However, cold start temperature adjustment factors
decrease in future years, and for year 2030 processing, we updated the temperature adjustment curves for
these cold start emissions. Note that running exhaust temperature adjustment factors are the same for all
years. Also, it is worth noting that the running mode gasoline exhaust emissions are considerably larger than
cold start mode gasoline exhaust emissions before application of the temperature adjustments.
28
-------
Figure 4-1. MOVES exhaust temperature adjustment functions for 2005 and 2030
80
^^^ Run Exhaust Both Years
--- Start Exhaust 2005
Start Exhaust 2030
-20-15-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70
Temperature (F)
4.3.1.1 Nonroad mobile (nonroad)
This sector includes monthly exhaust, evaporative and refueling emissions from nonroad engines (not
including commercial marine, aircraft, and locomotives) derived from NMEVI for all states except California.
Like the onroad emissions, NMEVI provides nonroad emissions for VOC by three emission modes: exhaust,
evaporative and refueling. Unlike the onroad sector, nonroad refueling emissions for nonroad sources are
not included in the nonpoint (nonpt) sector and so are retained in this sector.
With the exception of California, U.S. emissions for the nonroad sector (defined as the equipment types
covered by NMEVI) were created using a consistent NMEVI-based approach as was used for 2005, but
projected for 2030. The 2030 NMEVI runs utilized the NR05d-Bond-fmal version of NONROAD (which is
equivalent to NONROAD2008a). The future-year emissions account for increases in activity (based on
NONROAD model default growth estimates of future-year equipment population) and changes in fuels and
engines that reflect implementation of national regulations and local control programs that impact each year
differently due to engine turnover. We have not included voluntary programs such as programs encouraging
either no refueling or evening refueling on Ozone Action Days and diesel retrofit programs.
The national regulations incorporated in the modeling are those promulgated prior to December 2009, and
beginning about 1990. Recent rules include:
"Clean Air Nonroad Diesel Final Rule - Tier 4": (http://www.epa.gov/nonroaddiesel/2004fr.htm ),
published June 29, 2004, and,
Control of Emissions from Nonroad Large Spark-Ignition Engines, and Recreational Engines (Marine
and Land-Based), November 8, 2002 ("Pentathalon Rule").
OTAQ's Locomotive Marine Rule, March 2008:
(http://www.epa.gov/otaq/regs/nonroad/420f08004.htm)
OTAQ's Small Engine Spark Ignition ("Bond") Rule, November 2008:
(http://www.epa.gov/otaq/equip-ld.htm)
29
-------
All states except California:
OTAQ provided several runs of NMEVI emissions for the LDGHG (control case) Rule that were blended
together to create the 2030 HDGHG nonroad sector emissions. We used these same nonroad emissions for
both the reference and control cases in HDGHG. Table 4-11 shows how the various NMEVI runs were
combined to create the non-California nonroad mobile inventories. The first component "2002v3-based
2030 Base Case" is from the 2030 Base case in our 2002v3 platform for the SCCs listed in Table 4-11.
OTAQ also provided diesel recreational marine (pleasure craft) emissions in November 2009.
Table 4-11. Components of 2030 HDGHG Nonroad Sector
NMIM file
2002v3 -based 2030 Base Case
LdGhgN2030eO_nponzsegl ldies.txt
LdGhgN2030el0.txt
SCCs
2267x
2268x
2270x
2285002015,
2285006015
22820200x
2260x
2265x
228200x,
228201x
Description of Nonroad
SCCs
LPG equipment
CNG equipment
Diesel engines
Railway maintenance
Diesel recreational-
marine
2-stroke gasoline engines
4-stroke gasoline engines
Gasoline recreational
marine
All NMEVI data are based on AEO2007 fuels and NMEVI county database NCD20080727. We converted
emissions from monthly totals to monthly average-day values based the on number of days in each month.
CC>2 and all of California emissions were removed prior to creating SMOKE one record per line (ORL) files.
California nonroad:
California monthly nonroad emissions are year 2030 and are based on March 2007 California Air Resources
Board (CARB) data (Martin Johnson: mjohnson@arb.ca.gov). NH3 emissions are from NMEVI runs for
California (same data as were used in 2030 from the 2002 v3 platform). We allocated refueling emissions to
the gasoline equipment types based on evaporative mode VOC emissions from the 2002 v3 platform 2030
NMEVI data, and the refueling emissions were computed by multiplying SCC 2505000120 emissions by
0.61, to adjust to remove double counting with Portable Fuel Container inventory for California. We
estimated HAP emissions by applying HAP-to-CAP ratios computed from the California data provided for
the 2005 NEI v2, collected by EPA on 12/2007. This was done because the CARB submittal from March
2007 did not include estimates for HAPs. We retained only those HAPs that are also estimated by NMEVI
for nonroad mobile sources; all other HAPs were dropped.
4.3.2 Locomotives and Class 1 & 2 commercial marine vessels (alm_no_c3)
Future year locomotive and Class 1 and Class 2 commercial marine vessel (CMV) emissions were calculated
using projection factors that were computed based on national, annual summaries of locomotive emissions in
2002 and year 2030. These national summaries were used to create national by-pollutant, by-SCC projection
factors; these factors include final locomotive-marine controls and are provided in Table 4-12.
30
-------
Table 4-12. Factors applied to year 2005 emissions to project locomotives and Class 1 and Class 2
Commercial Marine Vessel Emissions to 2030
sec
2280002X00
2280002X00
2280002X00
2280002X00
2280002X00
2280002X00
2280002X00
2285002006
2285002006
2285002006
2285002006
2285002006
2285002006
2285002006
2285002007
2285002007
2285002007
2285002007
2285002007
2285002007
2285002007
2285002008
2285002008
2285002008
2285002008
2285002008
2285002008
2285002008
2285002009
2285002009
2285002009
2285002009
2285002009
2285002009
2285002009
2285002010
2285002010
2285002010
2285002010
2285002010
2285002010
2285002010
SCC Description
Marine Vessels, Commercial;Diesel;Underway & port emissions
Marine Vessels, Commercial;Diesel;Underway & port emissions
Marine Vessels, Commercial;Diesel;Underway & port emissions
Marine Vessels, Commercial;Diesel;Underway & port emissions
Marine Vessels, Commercial;Diesel;Underway & port emissions
Marine Vessels, Commercial;Diesel;Underway & port emissions
Marine Vessels, Commercial;Diesel;Underway & port emissions
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class I Operations
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class I Operations
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class I Operations
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class I Operations
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class I Operations
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class I Operations
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class I Operations
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class II / III Operations
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class II / III Operations
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class II / III Operations
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class II / III Operations
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class II / III Operations
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class II / III Operations
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class II / III Operations
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Passenger Trains (Amtrak)
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Passenger Trains (Amtrak)
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Passenger Trains (Amtrak)
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Passenger Trains (Amtrak)
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Passenger Trains (Amtrak)
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Passenger Trains (Amtrak)
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Passenger Trains (Amtrak)
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Commuter Lines
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Commuter Lines
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Commuter Lines
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Commuter Lines
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Commuter Lines
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Commuter Lines
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Commuter Lines
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Yard Locomotives
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Yard Locomotives
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Yard Locomotives
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Yard Locomotives
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Yard Locomotives
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Yard Locomotives
Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Yard Locomotives
Pollutant
CO
NH3
NOX
PM10
PM25
SO2
voc
CO
NH3
NOX
PM10
PM25
SO2
VOC
CO
NH3
NOX
PM10
PM25
SO2
VOC
CO
NH3
NOX
PM10
PM25
SO2
VOC
CO
NH3
NOX
PM10
PM25
SO2
VOC
CO
NH3
NOX
PM10
PM25
SO2
VOC
Projection
Factor
0.956
1.285
0.372
0.350
0.356
0.045
0.402
1.640
1.627
0.357
0.260
0.263
0.006
0.293
0.403
1.627
0.350
0.272
0.275
0.001
0.387
1.188
1.627
0.241
0.148
0.149
0.005
0.136
1.172
1.627
0.237
0.146
0.146
0.005
0.134
1.649
1.627
0.851
0.690
0.704
0.007
1.074
The future-year locomotive emissions account for increased fuel consumption based on Energy Information
Administration (EIA) fuel consumption projections for freight rail, and emissions reductions resulting from
emissions standards from the Final Locomotive-Marine rule (EPA, 2009). This rule lowered diesel sulfur
content and tightened emission standards for existing and new locomotives and marine diesel emissions to
lower future-year PM, 862, and NOx, and is documented at:
http://www.epa.gov/otaq/regs/nonroad/420f08004.htm. Voluntary retrofits under the National Clean Diesel
Campaign (http://www.epa.gov/otaq/diesel/index.htm) are not included in our projections.
11
-------
We applied HAP factors for VOC HAPs by using the VOC projection factors to obtain 1,3-butadiene,
acetaldehyde, acrolein, benzene, and formaldehyde.
Class 1 and 2 CMV gasoline emissions (SCC = 2280004000) were not changed for future-year processing.
C1/C2 diesel emissions (SCC = 2280002100 and 2280002200) were projected based on the Final
Locomotive Marine rule national-level factors provided in Table 4-12. Similar to locomotives, VOC HAPs
were projected based on the VOC factor.
Delaware provided updated future-year NOx, SO2, and PM emission estimates for C1/C2 CMV as part of the
Transport Rule comments. These updated emissions were applied to the 2030 inventory and override the
C1/C2 projection factors in Table 4-12.
4.3.3 Class 3 commercial marine vessels (seca_c3)
The seca_c3 sector emissions data were provided by OTAQ in an ASCII raster format used since the SO2
Emissions Control Area-International Marine Organization (ECA-EVIO) project began in 2005. The (S)ECA
Category 3 (C3) commercial marine vessel 2002 base-case emissions were projected to year 2005 for the
2005 base case and to year 2030 for the HDGHG future reference case, which includes ECA-EVIO controls.
An overview of the ECA-EVIO project and future-year goals for reduction of NOx, SO2, and PM C3
emissions can be found at: http://www.epa.gov/oms/regs/nonroad/marine/ci/420f09015.htm
The resulting coordinated strategy, including emission standards under the Clean Air Act for new marine
diesel engines with per-cylinder displacement at or above 30 liters, and the establishment of Emission
Control Areas is at: http://www.epa.gov/oms/oceanvessels.htm
These projection factors vary depending on geographic region and pollutant; where VOC HAPs are assigned
the same growth rates as VOC. The projection factors used to create the 2030 seca_c3 sector emissions are
provided in Table 4-13. Note that these factors are relative to 2002. Factors relative to 2005 can be
computed from the 2002-2005 factors.
The geographic regions are described in the EGA Proposal technical support document:
http://www.epa.gov/oms/regs/nonroad/marine/ci/420r09007-chap2.pdf. These regions extend up to 200
nautical miles offshore, though less at international boundaries. North and South Pacific regions are divided
by the Oregon-Washington border, and East Coast and Gulf Coast regions are divided east-west by roughly
the upper Florida Keys just southwest of Miami.
The factors to compute HAP emission are based on emissions ratios discussed in the 2005v4 documentation
(ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/2005v4/2005_emissions_tsd_07jul2010.pdf). As with the 2005 base case,
this sector uses CAP-HAP VOC integration.
32
-------
Table 4-13. NOx, SO2, and PM2.5 Factors to Project Class 3 Commercial Marine Vessel emissions to 2030
Region
Alaska East
Alaska West
East Coast
Gulf Coast
Hawaii East
Hawaii West
North Pacific
South Pacific
Great Lakes
Outside ECA
NOX
1.702
2.052
1.072
0.688
1.416
2.783
0.874
1.232
1.090
2.427
SO2
0.095
0.456
0.123
0.079
0.147
0.733
0.098
0.166
0.057
0.623
PM2.5
0.312
0.571
0.470
0.303
0.506
0.871
0.348
0.589
0.214
0.745
voc
2.487
2.396
3.464
2.217
3.839
3.842
2.528
4.225
1.621
3.417
4.4 Canada, Mexico, and Offshore sources (othar, othon, and othpt)
Emissions for Canada, Mexico, and offshore sources were not projected to future years, and are therefore the
same as those used in the 2005 base case. Therefore, the Mexico emissions are based on year 1999, offshore
oil is based on year 2005, and Canada is based on year 2006. For both Mexico and Canada, their responsible
agencies did not provide future-year emissions that were consistent with the base year emissions.
5 2030 Control Case
The 2030 HDGHG Control case is intended to represent the emissions associated with use of the most likely
volume of ethanol after application of the greenhouse gas emissions standards for commercial medium-and
heavy-duty on-highway vehicles and work trucks beginning with the 2014 model year (MY). The control
case assumes improvements in fuel consumption or greenhouse gas emissions in MY 2014 through 2018.
Similar to the reference case, the control case does not include fuel and emissions changes from the Energy
Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA), or the revised annual Renewable Fuel Standards (RFS2);
however the Light Duty Greenhouse Gas (LDGHG) impacts are included in both this control case and the
reference case discussed in section 4.
The 2030 Control case inventories differ from the reference case in only two components:
1) Gasoline distribution impacts in the non-EGU point (ptnonipm) and nonpoint sectors, and
2) MOVES2010a-based onroad mobile impacts to medium and heavy duty vehicles.
5.1 2030 Control Case Point and Nonpoint sources
The point sources for the 2030 HDGHG Control Case include the same emissions as the 2030 Reference
Case for the following point source emissions modeling sectors: US EGU point source (ptipm), sources from
Mexico, Canada, and the Gulf of Mexico (othpt). The nonpoint sources for the 2030 HDGHG Control Case
include the same emissions as the 2030 Reference Case for the following nonpoint source emissions
modeling sectors: area fugitive dust (afdust), agricultural ammonia (ag), average-year fires (avefire) and
sources from Mexico and Canada (othar).
The HDGHG year 2030 control case changes to the point and nonpoint emissions are limited to Annual
Energy Outlook (AEO) year2010-based upstream adjustments: refinery supply estimates and estimated
reductions in consumption that impact crude production and transport/distribution emissions from the
HDGHG control strategy for medium and heavy duty vehicles. The only sectors impacted by these control
case adjustments are the ptnonipm (point) and nonpt (nonpoint) sectors. VOC speciation changes from the
reference to the control case are discussed in Section 3.
33
-------
Upstream adjustments to oil refining, crude production, and transport were supplied by OTAQ on
12/16/2010 in the Excelฎ workbook "HDGHG_AQADJ_121610.xlsx". These adjustments reduce all
pollutant emissions from the 2030 reference case and are summarized below in Table 5-1.
Table 5-1. Upstream HDGHG Control Case adjustments
Category
Production
Refinery
Transport
Sectors Impacted
nonpt and ptnonipm
nonpt and ptnonipm
nonpt and ptnonipm
%
Reduction
0.13%
1.27%
0.13%
Cumulative Emissions Reductions
NOX
1,667
PM25
308
SO2
1,821
voc
1,794
5.2 2030 Control Case Mobile sources
The onroad mobile and nonroad mobile sources for the 2030 HDGHG Control Case include the same
emissions as the 2030 Reference Case for the following emissions modeling sectors: US nonroad mobile
(nonroad), US locomotives and non-C3 commercial marine (alm_no_c3), C3 commercial marine (seca_c3),
Canada and Mexico onroad mobile emissions (othon) and Canada and Mexico nonroad emissions (also in the
othar sector with Canada and Mexico stationary sources). California onroad mobile emissions were also not
changed in the control case except for NHs, where MOVES control case emissions replaced MOVES
reference case NHs estimates.
The HDGHG year 2030 control case changes to the mobile sectors are limited to the MOVES2010a-based
onroad non-California (except NET?) inventories and impact the following onroad mobile emissions modeling
sectors: on_moves_runpm, on_moves_startpm and on_noadj.
Similar to the 2005 HDGHG and 2030 HDGHG reference cases, we allocated the state-SCC MOVES data to
county-SCC using ratios developed from the same 2030 NMEVI county-SCC data as used in the 2030
HDGHG reference case. Other than the different MOVES2010a emissions data, we used the same
processing steps as described for the 2005 base and 2030 reference cases. VOC speciation changes from the
reference to the control case are discussed in Section 3.
Control case onroad mobile reductions are provided in Table 5-2. Small increases in PM2.5 are the result of
slight increases in auxiliary power unit emissions.
Table 5-2. Onroad mobile reductions from HDGHG controls
Reductions
% Reduction from Reference case
NOX
215,639
11.9%
PM25
-237
-0.2%
SO2
304
1.3%
VOC
22,953
2.4%
34
-------
6 References
EPA, 2005. Clean Air Interstate Rule Emissions Inventory Technical Support Document, U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, March 005.
Available at http://www.epa.gov/cair/pdfs/fmaltechO 1 .pdf.
EPA, 2006. Regulatory Impact Analyses, 2006 National Ambient Air Quality Standards for Particle
Pollution. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards,
October, 2006. Docket # EPA-HQ-OAR-2001-0017, # EPAHQ-OAR-2006-0834. Available at
http://www.epa.gov/ttn/ecas/ria.html.
EPA, 2007a. Guidance for Estimating VOC and NOx Emission Changes from MACT Rules, U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Air Quality Policy
Division, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, EPA-457/B-07-001, May 2007. Available at
http://www.epa.gov/ttn/naaqs/ozone/o3imp8hr/documents/guidance/200705 epa457 b-07-
001_emission_changes_mact__rules.pdf
EPA. 2007b. National Scale Modeling for the Final Mobile Source Air Toxics Rule, Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards, Emissions Analysis and Monitoring Division, Research Triangle Park, NC
27711, EPA 454/R-07-002, February 2007. Available at
http://www.epa.gov/otaq/regs/toxics/454r07002.pdf
EPA, 2009. Regulatory Impact Analysis: Control of Emissions of Air Pollution from Locomotive Engines
and Marine Compression Ignition Engines Less than 30 Liters Per Cylinder. U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency Office of Transportation and Air Quality, Assessment and Standards Division,
Ann Arbor, MI 48105, EPA420-R-08-001a, May 2009. Available at:
http://www.epa.gov/otaq/regs/nonroad/420r08001a.pdf
EPA, 2010. Technical Support Document: The Industrial Sectors Integrated Solutions (ISIS) Model and the
Analysis for the National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants and New Source
Performance Standards for the Portland Cement Manufacturing Industry, U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency, Sectors Policies and Program Division and Air Pollution Prevention and Control
Division, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, August 2010.
SRI, 2009. Southwest Research Insititute, Final Report prepared for Coordinating Research Council, Inc.:
ACES Phase I: Phase 1 of the Advanced Collaborative Emissions Study, June 2009. Available at:
http ://www. crcao.org/reports/recentstudies2009/ACES%20Phase%201/ACES%20Phase 1 %20Final%
20Report%2015 JUN2009.pdf
35
-------
APPENDIX A
Modified HDGHG Equations to adapt pre-speciated diesel emissions from MOVES to air quality
modeling species needed for CMAQ
As shown in equation (1) below, MOVES provides total PM2 5, PEC and PSO4. A remainder term, R, makes
up the difference between the two species and the total PM2 5.
MOVES total PM2.5 = PEC + PSO4 + R (1)
The R term includes POM, which consists of POC and the hydrogen and oxygen atoms attached to the
carbon as part of the organic matter, PNO3, soil oxides and metals (also known as "crustal" and called
METAL here), ammonium, and water, and thus can be also written as:
R = POM + PNO3 + METAL + NH4 + H20 (2)
To correctly calculate the five PM2 5 species needed for CMAQ, we first needed to break out the POC,
PNO3, and PMFINE from R. Different calculations are used for light-duty diesel vehicles and heavy-duty
diesel vehicles, since the speciation profiles for these are different. The speciation profiles used for these
calculations are:
For both light duty diesel vehicles and heavy duty diesel vehicles, the SPECIATE 4.0 PM2.5 speciation
profiles "3914" (HHDV) and "92042" (LDDV) will be used to help calculate the other species. At the time,
OTAQ did not provide a justification for choosing this profile, but the fractions of metals and PNO3 are
small and so presumably the choice does not matter too much as long as the smallest of those fractions is
representative.
We computed the primary nitrate based on speciation profile 92011 from the SPECIATE4.1 database (Hsu et
al., 2006) using equation (3) shown below.
PN03 = PEC x FN03 /FEC (3)
where,
FEC = Fraction of elemental carbon in speciation profile:
- LDDV: 57.4805% (based on profile 92042)2
- HDDV: 77.1241% (based on profile 3914)
FNOS = Fraction of nitrate in speciation profile
LDDV: 0.1141% (based on profile 3914, intentionally inconsistent)
- HDDV: 0.1141% (based on profile 3914)
To identify which sources should get the LDDV and which should get the HDDV approach, see Table 1,
below.
Since CMAQ's PMFINE species is the sum of soil oxides, metals, ammonium, and water, we needed to
calculate all of its components. First, the metals and ammonium are computed using equations (4) and (5).
Equation (5) is based on stoichiometric calculations.
All profile fractions provided in email from Catherine Yanca on 11/6/2009, 1:49pm in attachment "Equations for diesel MOVES
speciation use in CMAQ 110609.doc"
36
-------
METAL = PEC x Fmetd /FEC (4)
NH4 = (PNOS/Mffe +2 x PSO4/A4WSO4) x MWNH4 (5)
where,
F metal = Fraction of metals in speciation profile (0. 002663 3)
MWS04 = Molecular weight of sulfate (96.0576)
MWN03 = Molecular weight of nitrate (62.0049)
= Molecular weight of ammonium (18.0383)
The final component of PMFINE is the non-carbon mass of organic carbon. To calculate the non-carbon
mass, we first needed to compute organic carbon from the remainder term, R.
A key assumption is that POM is a factor of 1.2 greater than the mass of primary organic carbon, which is
also used in the CMAQ postprocessing software at EPA.
POM = 1.2 x POC (6)
Using this assumption and assuming that the H^O is negligible, the equation needed for the calculation of
POC is shown in equations 7a and 7b for gasoline exhaust and diesel exhaust, respectively. As discussed in
Section 2.3, for HDGHG, the NH4 component was removed for diesel exhaust only.
Gasoline Exhaust: POC = 5/6 x (R - METAL - NH4 - PNO3) (7a)
Diesel Exhaust: POC = 5/6 x (R - METAL - PNO3) (7b)
See Appendix B of the 2005v4 TSD for more complete discussion on PM speciation for gasoline exhaust
processes: ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventorv/2005v4/2005 emissions tsd appendices Ilmav2010.pdf
From equation (6), the non-carbon portion of the organic carbon matter is 20%, of the POC. By definition,
PMFINE is the sum of the non-carbon portion of the mass, METAL and NH4. Thus, we computed
PMFINE_72 using equations (8a and 8b) shown below for gasoline and diesel exhaust.
Gasoline Exhaust: PMFINE_72 = METAL + NH4 + 0.2 x POC_72 (8a)
Diesel Exhaust: PMFINE_72 = METAL + 0.2 x POC_72 (8b)
Equations 7a and 8a (with NH4) will be obsolete in all subsequent MOVES post-processing; we did not have
time to reprocess the gasoline exhaust emissions for HDGHG; however, the computed NH4 component in
gasoline exhaust was much smaller than for diesel exhaust so this impact should be negligible.
For mobile sources, we assumed that PMC is 8.6% of the PM2.5 mass. Equation (9) shows how we
calculated it.
PMC = 0.086 x (PMFINE + PEC + POC + PSO4 + PNO3) (9)
Table A-l. List of SCC groups for application of LDDV or HDDV approach
Approach
LDDV
HDDV
SCC list
2230001000 through 2230060334
2230071 1 10 through 2230075330
3 Value provided by Catherine Yanca and Joe Somers to OAQPS in email provided 11/5/2009
37
-------
APPENDIX B
Inventory Data Files Used for Each HDGHG Modeling Case - SMOKE Input Inventory Datasets
In any of the following dataset names where the placeholder has been provided, this is intended to
mean 12 separate files with the placeholder replaced with either jan, feb, mar, apr, may, jun, jul, aug,
sep, oct, nov, or dec, each associated with a particular month of the year.
38
-------
Table B-l. List of inventory data associated with HDGHG modeling cases.
OJ
VO
Case
2005 Base
(2005cs_hdghg_05b)
All Cases
Sector
ptipm
ptnonipm
afdust
ag
aim no c3
nonpt
nonroad
on noadj
on moves runpm
on moves startpm
seca c3
avefire
othar
SMOKE Input Files
Annual: ptinv ptipm 2005cs cap 27dec2010 txt 29dec2010 vl orl.txt
Annual: ptinv ptipm 2005cs hap 27dec2010 txt 27dec2010 vO orl.txt
Daily: ptday_ptipm caphap noncem 2005cs 05b ida.txt
Daily: ptday_ptipm caphap cem 2005cs 05b ida.txt
ptinv ptnonipm xportfrac cap2005v2 2005cs orl 06jan2011 v4 orl.txt
ptinv ptnonipm hap2005v2 2005cs orl 04jan2011 v2 orl.txt
ptinv ptnonipm caphap ethanol plant additions 2005 30jun2010 v3 orl.txt
ptinv ptnonipm xportfrac 2005cap vl from 2005ai ND ADM plant 30jun2010 vO orl.txt
ptinv_ptnonipm_2005hap_vl_from_2005ai_ND_ADM_plant_30jun2010_vO_orl.txt
arinv afdust 2002ad xportfrac 26sep2007 vO orl.txt
arinv ag cap2002nei 06nov2006 vO orl.txt
arinv 1m no c3 hap2002v4 20feb2009 vO orl.txt
arinv 1m no c3 cap2002v3 22dec2010 vl orl.txt
arinv nonpt pf4 cap nopfc 04jan2011 v5 orl.txt
arinv nonpt pf4 hap nopfc nobafmpesticidesplus 04jan2011 v3 orl.txt
arinv pfc 2002 caphap 27dec2007 vO orl.txt
arinv nonpt cap 2005 WRAP OilGas 04feb2009 vO orl.txt
arinv nonpt cap 2005 TCEQ_Oklahoma OilGas 28may2010 vO orl.txt
arinv nonroad caps 2005v2 revised 08sep2008 vO orl.txt
arinv nonroad calif caphap 2005v2 revised 23jun2010 vO orl.txt
arinv nonroad haps 2005v2 revised 05sep2008 vO orl.txt
mbinv on noadj MOVES with NO NO2 HONO 2005cs hdghg 24FEB2011 24feb2011 vO orl.txt
mbinv onroad calif caphap 2005v2 revised 16feb2011 vl orl.txt
mbinv_on_moves_runpm_2005cs_hdghg__03FEB20 1 1_03feb20 1 l_vO_orl.txt
mbinv_on_moves_startpm_2005cs_hdghg__03FEB201 1_03feb2011_v0_orl.txt
ptinv eca imo CANADA SCC fix vochaps 2005 09DEC2010 09dec2010 vO orl.txt
ptinv eca imo CANADA SCC fix caps 2005 09DEC2010 09dec2010 vO orl.txt
ptinv eca imo fixFIPS US wDE andSCC fix caps 2005 09DEC2010 09dec2010 vO orl.txt
ptinv eca imo fixFIPS US andSCC fix vochaps 2005 09DEC2010 09dec2010 vO orl.txt
arinv_avefire_2002ce_21dec2007_vO_ida.txt
arinv_avefire_2002_hap_18nov2008_vO_orl.txt
arinv nonroad mexico interior!999 21dec2006 vO ida.txt
arinv nonroad mexico border!999 21dec2006 vO ida.txt
arinv nonpt mexico interior!999 21dec2006 vO ida.txt
arinv nonpt mexico border!999 21dec2006 vO ida.txt
arinv Canada offroad cap 2006 04feb2009 vO orl.txt
arinv Canada marine cap 2006 03feb2009 vO orl.txt
arinv Canada oarea cap 2006 02mar2009 v3 orl.txt
-------
Case
2030 Reference
and Control
2030 Reference Only
(2030cs_hdghg_ref_05b)
Sector
othon
othpt
Ptipm
afdust
ag
aim no c3
Nonroad
seca c3
ptnonipm
nonpt
on noadj
on moves runpm
SMOKE Input Files
arinv Canada aircraft cap 2006 04feb2009 vO orl.txt
arinv Canada rail cap 2006 03feb2009 vO orl.txt
arinv Canada ag cap 2006 03feb2009 vO orl.txt
arinv Canada afdust xportfrac cap 2006 03feb2009 vO orl.txt
mbinv Canada onroad cap 2006 04feb2009 vO orl.txt
mbinv onroad mexico border!999 21dec2006 vO ida.txt
mbinv onroad mexico interior!999 21dec2006 vO ida.txt
ptinv Canada point 2006 orl 09mar2009 v2 orl.txt
ptinv Canada point cb5 2006 orl 10mar2009 vO orl.txt
ptinv Canada point uog 2006 orl 02mar2009 vO orl.txt
ptinv mexico border99 03mar2008 vl ida.txt
ptinv mexico interior99 05feb2007 vO ida.txt
ptinv ptnonipm offshore oil cap2005v2 20nov2008 20nov2008 vO orl.txt
Annual: ptinv_PTINV_EPA410_BC_15b_summer_2030_02FEB2011_ORL_04feb2011_vO_orl.txt
Daily: ptday ptipm caphap noncem 2030cs hdghg ref 05b ida.txt
Daily: ptday ptipm caphap cem 2030cs hdghg ref 05b ida.txt
arinv_afdust_2030cs_10feb20 1 l_vO_orl.txt
arinv_ag_cap2030cs_10feb2011_vO_orl.txt
arinv 1m no c3 hap2030cs 10feb2011 vO orl.txt
arinv 1m no c3 cap2030cs 10feb2011 vO orl.txt
arinv nonroad capshaps LDGHG 2030 CONTROL 15DEC09 15dec2009 vO orl.txt
arinv nonroad calif caphap 2030v31 17apr2008 vO orl.txt
ptinv eca imo CANADA SCC fix vochaps 2030 08FEB2011 08feb2011 vO orl.txt
ptinv eca imo CANADA SCC fix caps 2030 08FEB2011 08feb2011 vO orl.txt
ptinv eca imo fixFIPS US wDE andSCC fix caps 2030 08FEB2011 08feb2011 vO orl.txt
ptinv eca imo fixFIPS US andSCC fix vochaps 2030 08FEB2011 08feb2011 vO orl.txt
ptinv ptnonipm xportfrac cap2030cs 10feb2011 vO orl.txt
ptinv ptnonipm hap2030cs 10feb2011 vO orl.txt
ptinv ptnonipm caphap ethanol plant additions 2005 30jun2010 v3 orl.txt
ptinv ptnonipm xportfrac 2005cap vl from 2005ai ND ADM plant 30jun2010 vO orl.txt
ptinv ptnonipm 2005hap vl from 2005ai ND ADM plant 30jun2010 vO orl.txt
ptinv ptnonipm cornproducts 17031 hap cap 2008t 27aug2010 vO orl.txt
ptinv ptnonipm capHG cementlSIS 2016cr 16AUG2010 16aug2010 vO orl.txt
arinv nonpt 2030cs_pf4 cap nopfc Ilfeb2011 vO orl.txt
arinv nonpt 2030cs_pf4 hap nopfc nobafmpesticidesplus Ilfeb2011 vO orl.txt
arinv pfc caphap2030 02apr2008 vO orl.txt
arinv nonpt cap 2018PhaseII WRAP OilGas 24aug2009 vO orl.txt
arinv nonpt 2030cs from cap 2008 TCEQJDklahoma OilGas Ilfeb2011 vO orl.txt
mbinv on noadj MOVES with NO NO2 HONO 2030cs hdghg ref 23FEB2011 23feb2011 vO orl.txt
mbinv onroad calif caphap 2030v31 14feb2011 vl orl.txt
mbinv_on_moves_runpm_2030cs_hdghg_ref__04FEB20 1 1_04feb20 1 l_vO_orl.txt
-------
Case
2030 Control Only
(2030cs_hdghg_ctl_05b)
Sector
on moves startpm
Ptnonipm
Nonpt
on noadj
on moves runpm
on moves startpm
SMOKE Input Files
mbinv_on_moves_startpm_2030cs_hdghg_ref__04FEB20 1 1_04feb20 1 l_vO_orl.txt
ptinv ptnonipm xportfrac cap2030cs hdghg ctl 25feb2011 vO orl.txt
ptinv ptnonipm hap2030cs hdghg ctl 25feb2011 vO orl.txt
ptinv ptnonipm caphap ethanol plant additions 2005 30jun2010 v3 orl.txt
ptinv ptnonipm xportfrac 2005cap vl from 2005ai ND ADM plant 30jun2010 vO orl.txt
ptinv ptnonipm 2005hap vl from 2005ai ND ADM plant 30jun2010 vO orl.txt
ptinv ptnonipm cornproducts 17031 hap cap 2008t 27aug2010 vO orl.txt
ptinv ptnonipm capHG cementlSIS 2016cr 16AUG2010 16aug2010 vO orl.txt
arinv nonpt 2030cs hdghg ctl_pf4 cap nopfc 25feb2011 vO orl.txt
arinv nonpt 2030cs hdghg ctl pf4 hap nopfc nobafmpesticidesplus 25feb2011 vO orl.txt
arinv pfc caphap2030 02apr2008 vO orl.txt
arinv nonpt cap 2030cs hdghg ctl from 2018PhaseII WRAP OilGas 25feb2011 vO orl.txt
arinv nonpt 2030cs hdghg from 2030cs TCEQ Oklahoma OilGas 25feb2011 vO orl.txt
mbinv on noadj MOVES with NO NO2 HONO 2030cs hdghg ctl 25FEB2011 25feb2011 vO orl.txt
mbinv onroad calif caphap 2030v31 14feb2011 vl orl.txt
mbinv on moves runpm 2030cs hdghg ctl 25FEB2011 25feb2011 vO orl.txt
mbinv_on_moves_startpm_2030cs_hdghg_ctl__25FEB201 1_25feb2011_v0_orl.txt
-------
APPENDIX C
Ancillary Data Files Used for HDGHG 2005 Case Compared to 2005 v4.2 Platform Data Files
To match the Datasets and Versions listed in this table to actual data files, combine the Dataset name and the
version number in the following pattern: __.txt, where is
the last date of change for that version and will have a unique value for the combination of Dataset Name
and Version number.
42
-------
Table C-l. Detailed list of ancillary data differences between the HDGHG 2005 and the 2005 v4.2 platform
Description
Inventory table
Inventory table
Combination
Profiles
VOC to TOG
pollutant
conversions
VOC to TOG
pollutant
conversions
VOC to TOG
pollutant
conversions
Speciation
profiles -static
Speciation
profiles for TOG
Speciation
profiles Other
VOC HAP
Speciation
profiles for non-
Environme
nt Variable
INVTABLE
INVTABLE
GSPRO C
OMBO
GSCNV
GSCNV
GSCNV
GSPRO
GSPRO
GSPRO
GSPRO
Sectors
All
sectors
avefire,
ptnonipm,
ptipm
onroad,
nonroad,
ptnonipm,
nonpt
All
sectors
All
sectors
All
sectors
All
sectors
All
sectors
All
sectors
All
sectors
2005 v4.2 platform
Dataset
invtable_hapcapintegate_cbO
5soa_nomp_nohg
invtable_hapcapnohapuse_c
b05soa_nomp_nohg
gspro_combo_2005
gscnv_cmaq_cb05_tx_pf4
gscnv_cmaq_cb05_hspace_t
oxic
gspro cmaq_cb05 hspace B
AF
gspro_static_cmaq
gspro_tog_cb05_soa_pf4_pr
etier2
n/a
gspro_nonhaptog_cb05_tx_p
f4_pretier2
Vs
n
o
J
1
2
3
0
1
9
1
1
2005 HDGHG platform
Dataset
invtable_hapcap_cb05soa
invtable_hapcap_cb05_no_b
afm
gspro_combo_2005
gscnv_cb05_soa
n/a
n/a
gspro_static_cmaq
gspro_tog_cb05_soa
gspro_other_hapvoc_no_ben
z-benz
gspro_nonhaptog_cb05
Vs
n
10
o
6
6
1
12
1
0
1
Comment and Impact
HDGHG used a toxics "lite" approach for
processing the emissions and 2005 v4.2 platform
used an approach without most toxics. Impacts
only the species included in the air quality
modeling. HDGHG also includes speciated NO,
NO2 and HONO from MOVES2010a onroad
mobile sources.
Approach for implementing "no HAP use"
approach for these sectors was different in
HDGHG, but the result was the same.
Different fuel mixes for refueling, PFCs, and
gasoline distribution in ptnoipm and nonpt in
HDGHG -see Section 3 in HDGHG TSD.
Contains all 3 2005v4.2 GSCNV datasets
appended into a single dataset. Updated for
HDGHG profiles.
Headspace profiles for NONHAP TOG
Headspace profiles for benzene
Added NO, NO2, and HONO for MOVES2010a
species.
Excluded ald2_primary and form_primary from
v4 platform since not needed
For HDGHG, this dataset has the HAP VOC
species that get passed through from inventory to
the multipollutant inputs created for HDGHG.
Updated HDGHG profiles and also appends the
next three listed GSPRO datasets from v4.2 in this
Impact
?
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
No
No
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
-------
Description
HAP TOG
Speciation profile
8762/8763 for
toxics
Speciation profile
8762/8763 for
nontoxics
Speciation profile
8762/8763 for
TOG to BAF
Speciation xref
for
NONHAPVOC,
not year-specific
Speciation xref
for
NONHAPVOC,
year-specific
Speciation xref
forVOC, not
year-specific
Speciation xref
for VOC, year-
specific
Speciation xref -
static
SCC Descriptions
Environme
nt Variable
GSPRO
GSPRO
GSPRO
GSREF
GSREF
GSREF
GSREF
GSREF
SCCDESC
Sectors
All
sectors
All
sectors
All
sectors
All
sectors
All
sectors
All
sectors
All
sectors
All
sectors
All
sectors
2005 v4.2 platform
Dataset
gspro_cmaq_cb05_hspace_t
oxic
gspro_cmaq_cb05_hspace_n
ontoxic
gspro cmaq_cb05 hspace B
AF
gsref_nonhapvoc_general_ld
ghg_cr_update
gsref_nonhapvoc_2005_ldgh
g_cr_update
gsref_voc_general_ldghg
gsref_voc_2005_ldghg
gsref_static_cap_pf4
sccdesc_pf3 1
Vs
n
0
0
1
6
6
6
5
0
10
2005 HDGHG platform
Dataset
n/a
n/a
n/a
gsref_nonhapvoc_general_h
dghg
gsref nonhapvoc 2005 hdg
hg
gsref_voc_general_hdghg
gsref_voc_2005_hdghg
gsref_static_cap_pf4
sccdesc_pf3 1
Vs
n
1
1
2
o
6
i
n
Comment and Impact
table
toxics from NONHAPTOG for headspace profiles
8762 and 8763
toxics from TOG for headspace profiles 8762 and
8763
benzene from TOG for headspace profiles 8762
and 8763
Reassigned nonroad diesel exhaust and pleasure
craft from code 4674 to 8774.
Replaced 8762 (EO) headspace
refueling/distribution with COMBO EO/E10
profile, add pre-2007 HD trucks profile (8774)
Reassigned nonroad diesel exhaust and pleasure
craft from code 4674 to 8774.
Replaced 8762 (EO) headspace
refueling/distribution with COMBO EO/E10
profile, add pre-2007 HD trucks profile (8774)
Allows MOVES2010a NO, NO2, and HONO to
pass through as-is.
New SCC found for Hg processing ptnonipm
Impact
?
No
No
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
-------
Appendix D
Summary of HDGHG Rule 2030 Reference Case Non-EGU Control Programs, Closures and Projections
Lists of control, closure, projection packet datasets used to create HDGHG year 2030 Reference case inventories from the 2005 HDGHG base
case are provided in Tables D-l and D-2.
Table D-l. Datasets used to Create HDGHG 2030 Inventories for Non-EGU Point Sources
Name
CLOSURES LotusNotes, ABCG, plus Timin
2016cr
CLOSURES TR1 comments and consent decrees
2014cs
CLOSURES cement ISIS 2013 policy
closures: 2005 to 20 12ck
CONTROL ADDITIONAL OECA 2005cr to
2016cr
CONTROL REPLACE DOJ 2005cr to 2016cr
CONTROL REPLACE HWI 2005cr to 2016cr
CONTROL REPLACE IndustrialBoiler
nonMACT 2005crto 2016cr
CONTROL REPLACE LMWC 2005cr to 2016cr
CONTROL REPLACE MACT 2005cr to 2016cr
CONTROL REPLACE NY SIP 2005cr to 2016cr
CONTROL REPLACE Refineries 2005cr to
2016cr
CONTROL RICE 20 16cr 05b
CONTROL RICE SO2 2014cs 05b
CONTROL SULF rules: ME, NY, NJ 2018 and
beyond
Type
Plant
Closure
Plant
Closure
Plant
Closure
Plant
Closure
Control
Control
Control
Control
Control
Control
Control
Control
Control
Control
Control
Dataset
CLOSURES LotusNotes Linda Timin 2016
cr 23AUG2010
CLOSURES TR1 2014cs 01FEB2011
CLOSURES cementlSIS 2016cr 17AUG201
0
CLOSURES_2005ck_to_2012ck_CoST_form
at
CONTROLS additional NEIpf4 OECA 200
5cr 2016cr 29JUL2010
CONTROLS replacement NEIpf4 DOJ 200
5cr 2016cr 02AUG2010.txt
CONTROLS replacement NEIpf4 HWI 200
5cr 2016cr 02AUG2010.txt
CONTROLS replacement IndBoilers nonM
ACT by2008 20AUG2010
CONTROLS replacement NEIpf4 LMWC
2005cr 2016cr 02AUG2010.txt
CONTROLS replacement NEIpf4 MACT 2
005cr 2016cr 02AUG2010.txt
CONTROLS replacement NYSIP O3 SCC
2016cr 26AUG2010
CONTROLS replacement NEIpf4 refineries
2005cr 2016cr 02AUG2010.txt
CONTROLS replacement RICE 2016cr 21
SEP2010
CONTROLS replacement RICE SO2 2014c
s 05JAN2011
CONTROLS SULF rules 2018 and beyond
03FEB2011
Version
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
Description
Plant and unit closures identified through EPA
review.
Plant and unit closures through 2014 identified as
a result of Transport Rule comments.
Cement plant and unit closures identified via the
ISIS 2013 policy case.
Plant and unit closures identified 2008 or before.
Controls that implement OECA consent decrees.
Controls resulting from the 2002v3 DOJ Texas
settlement.
Hazardous Waste Incinerator controls for CAPs
and Haps carried over from 2002v3 1.
Industrial boiler controls not related to application
of the MACT but derived from the Boiler MACT
ICR database dated 4/30/10.
Controls for large municipal combustors carried
over from 2002v31.
MACT controls carried over from 2002v3 and
updated as appropriate.
Controls that reflect enforceable controls for NOx
and VOC from the New York ozone SIP.
Controls for refineries specified by EPA expert
refinery staff.
Controls for 2014 and 2016 that represent three
separate RICE NESHAPs
SO2 reductions from the Ultra-low Sulfur Diesel
requirement for CI engines
SO2 reductions due to state sulfur content rules for
fuel oil.
45
-------
CONTROL St Gobain and LaFarge 2017
CONTROL TR1 Final CONTROL packet: 2021
CONTROL TR1 Final consent decrees 2019
CONTROL cement ISIS 2013 policy
PROJECTION 2005 to 2030 ag emissions
PROJECTION LMWC 2005cr to 2016cr
PROJECTION TR1 comments 2005cs to 20XXcs
-ptnonipm
PROJECTION aircraft 2005cs to 2030 JAN2010
FAATAF
PROJECTION cement ISIS 2013 policy
PROJECTION refueling 2005cs to
2030cs_hdghg_ref
Control
Control
Control
Control
Projecti
on
Projecti
on
Projecti
on
Projecti
on
Projecti
on
Projecti
on
CONTROLS rep Lafarge StGobain 2017cs
25JAN2011.txt
CONTROLS TR1 2021 09FEB2011
CONTROLS_additional_TRlfmal_consent_d
ecrees 2005cs to 2019cs
CONTROLS replacement cementlSIS 2016
cr 17AUG2010
PROJECTION 2005cs 2030 ag 09FEB2011
PROJECTION 2005cr 2016cr LMWC 29J
UL2010
PROJECTION 2005cs 20XX TRl_ptnonip
m 01FEB2011
PROJECTION 2005cs 2030 aircraft JAN20
10 based FAATAF 10FEB2011
PROJECTION cementlSIS 2016cr 17AUG2
010
PROJECTION_2005cs_2030cs_hdghg_ref_o
nroad_reftieling_04FEB20 1 1
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Controls for NOx, SO2, PM, and HC1 resulting
from Saint Gobain and Lafarge consent decrees
Controls for TCEQ oil and gas and non-ISIS
related cement controls.
Controls related to consent decrees identified
during the Transport Rule comment period.
Controls for cement plants based on 2013 ISIS
policy case
Projection factors for agriculture based on animal
population stats.
Projection factors for Solid and Liquid Municipal
Waste Combustors.
Projection factors derived from Transport Rule
comments.
Projection factors for aircraft derived from the
FAA Terminal Area Forecast System.
Projection factors that implement the 2013 ISIS
policy case for cement.
Projection factors for gasoline stage 2 refueling.
Table D-2. Datasets used to Create HDGHG 2030 Inventories for Nonpoint Sources
Control Program Name
CONTROL REPLACE NY
SIP2005crto2016cr
CONTROL RICE
2016cr 05b
CONTROL RICE SO2
2014cs 05b
CONTROL SULF rules:
ME, NY, NJ 2018 and
beyond
CONTROL TR1 Final
CONTROL packet: 2021
PROJECTION 2005 to 2030
ag sector
PROJECTION RWC and
landfills 2005 to 2030
PROJECTION refueling
2005cs to 2030cs hdghg ref
Type
Control
Control
Control
Control
Control
Projection
Projection
Projection
Dataset
CONTROLS replacement NYSIP O3 SC
C 2016cr 26AUG2010
CONTROLS replacement RICE 2016cr
21SEP2010
CONTROLS replacement RICE SO2 20
14cs 05JAN2011
CONTROLS SULF rules 2018 and beyo
nd 03FEB2011
CONTROLS TR1 2021 09FEB2011
PROJECTION 2005cs 2030 ag 09FEB20
11
PROJECTION 2005cs 2030cs RWC land
fills 08FEB2011
PROJECTION 2005cs 2030cs hdghg ref
onroad refueling 04FEB2011
Version
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
Description
Controls that reflect enforceable controls for NOx and VOC from the
New York ozone SIP.
Controls for 2014 and 2016 that represent three separate RICE
NESHAPs
SO2 reductions from the Ultra-low Sulfur Diesel requirement for CI
engines
SO2 reductions due to state sulfur content rules for fuel oil.
Controls for TCEQ oil and gas and non-ISIS related cement controls.
Projection factors for agriculture based on animal population stats.
Projection factors for residential wood combustion and landfills.
Projection factors for gasoline stage 2 refueling.
46
------- |