&EPA United SUos Envirwinmlfll Protection Air Quality Modeling Technical Support Document: Source Sector Assessments ------- EPA-454/R-11-006 August 2011 Air Quality Modeling Technical Support Document: Source Sector Assessments U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards Air Quality Assessment Division Research Triangle Park, NC 27711 ------- I Introduction This document describes the air quality modeling performed by EPA in support or air quality and deposition assessments related source sector groups. A national scale air quality modeling analysis was performed to estimate the impact of current and future year sector emissions on annual and 24-hour PM2.5 concentrations, 8-hr maximum ozone, as well as visibility impairment. Air quality benefits are estimated with the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx) model. CAMx simulates the numerous physical and chemical processes involved in the formation, transport, and destruction of ozone, particulate matter and air toxics. In addition to the CAMx model, the modeling platform includes the emissions, meteorology, and initial and boundary condition data which are inputs to this model. It is important to note that the inventories used in the air quality modeling may be different than a final sector inventory presented in a Regulatory Impact Analyses. II. Photochemical Model Version, Inputs and Configuration Photochemical grid models use state of the science numerical algorithms to estimate pollutant formation, transport, and deposition over a variety of spatial scales that range from urban to continental. Emissions of precursor species are injected into the model where they react to form secondary species such as ozone and then transport around the modeling domain before ultimately being removed by deposition or chemical reaction. The 2005-based CAMx modeling platform was used as the basis for the air quality modeling. This platform represents a structured system of connected modeling-related tools and data that provide a consistent and transparent basis for assessing the air quality response to projected changes in emissions. The base year of data used to construct this platform includes emissions and meteorology for 2005. The modeling system treats the emissions, transport, and fate of criteria pollutants. The modeling system was used to calculate daily and annual PM2.5 concentrations, 8-hr maximum ozone, and visibility impairment. Model predictions are used to estimate future-year design values of PM2.5 and ozone using a 2016 reference scenario compared to a 2005 baseline. This is done by calculating the simulated air quality ratios between any particular future year simulation and the 2005 base. These predicted ratios are then applied to ambient base year design values. The design value projection methodology used here followed EPA guidance for such analyses (USEPA, 2007). A. Model version CAMx version 5.30 is a freely available computer model that simulates the formation and fate of photochemical oxidants, ozone, primary and secondary PM concentrations, and air toxics, over regional and urban spatial scales for given input sets of meteorological conditions and emissions. CAMx includes numerous science modules that simulate the emission, production, decay, deposition and transport of organic and inorganic gas-phase and particle-phase pollutants in the atmosphere (Baker and Scheff, 2007; Nobel et al., 2001; Russell, 2008). CAMx is applied with ISORROPIA inorganic chemistry (Nenes et al., 1999), a semi-volatile equilibrium scheme to 1 ------- partition condensable organic gases between gas and particle phase (Strader et al., 1999), Regional Acid Deposition Model (RADM) aqueous phase chemistry (Chang et al., 1987), and Carbon Bond 05 (CB05) gas-phase chemistry module (ENVIRON, 2008; Gery et al., 1989). CAMx contains a variety of ozone source apportionment tools, including the original ozone source apportionment tool (OSAT) and the anthropogenic pre-cursor culpability assessment (APCA) tool (ENVIRON, 2008). Ozone source apportionment tracers are treated using the standard model algorithms for vertical advection, vertical diffusion, and horizontal diffusion. Horizontal advective fluxes for each of the regular model species that make up nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOC) are combined and normalized by a concentration based weighted mean. Separate ozone tracers are used in CAMx to track ozone formation that happens under NOX and VOC limited conditions. Particulate matter source apportionment technology (PSAT) implemented in CAMx estimates the contribution from specific emissions source groups to PM2.5 and all forms of mercury using reactive tracers (ENVIRON, 2008; Wagstrom et al., 2008). The tracer species are estimated with source apportionment algorithms rather than by the host model routines. PSAT tracks contribution to PM2.5 sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, secondary organic aerosol, and inert primarily emitted species. Non-linear processes like gas and aqueous phase chemistry are solved for bulk species and then apportioned to the tagged species. Emissions of nitrogen oxides are tracked through all intermediate nitrogen species to particulate nitrate ion. Ammonia emissions are tracked to particulate ammonium ion. This modeling assessment used the PSAT approach to estimate source contribution to PM2.5 species and the APCA method to estimate source contribution to modeled ozone. B. Model domain and grid resolution The modeling analyses were performed for a domain covering the continental United States as shown in Figure II-l. This domain has a parent horizontal grid of 36 km with two finer-scale 12 km grids over portions of the eastern and western U.S. The model extends vertically from the surface to 100 millibars (approximately 15 km) using a sigma-pressure coordinate system. Air quality conditions at the outer boundary of the 36 km domain were taken from a global model and vary in time and space. The 36 km grid was only used to establish the incoming air quality concentrations along the boundaries of the 12 km grids. Only the finer grid data were used in determining the impacts of the emissions changes. Table II-l provides geographic information about the photochemical model domains. ------- Table II-l. Geograj Map Projection Grid Resolution Coordinate Center True Latitudes Dimensions Vertical extent }hic elements of domains used in photochemical modeling. Photochemical Modeling Configuration National Grid Western U.S. Fine Grid Eastern U.S. Fine Grid Lambert Conformal Projection 36km 12km 12km 97 deg W, 40 deg N 33 deg N and 45 deg N 148 x 112x 14 213 x 192 x 14 279 x 240 x 14 14 Layers: Surface to 100 millibar level (see Table II-3) Figure II-l. Map of the photochemical modeling domains. The black outer box denotes the 36 km national modeling domain; the red inner box is the 12 km western U.S. grid; and the blue inner box is the 12 km eastern U.S. grid. C. Modeling Time-period The 36 km and both 12 km modeling domains were modeled for the entire year of 2005. Data from the entire year were utilized when looking at the estimation of PM2.5 and visibility impacts. Data from April through October is used to estimate ozone impacts. D. Model Inputs: Emissions, Meteorology and Boundary Conditions The 2005-based modeling platform was used for the air quality modeling of future emissions scenarios. In addition to the photochemical model, the modeling platform also consists of the ------- base- and future-year emissions estimates, meteorological fields, as well as initial and boundary condition data which are all inputs to the air quality model. 1. Emissions Input Data The emissions data used in the base year and future reference and future emissions adjustment case are based on the 2005 v4.3 platform. Emissions are processed to photochemical model inputs with the SMOKE emissions modeling system (Houyoux et al., 2000). The 2016 reference case is intended to represent the emissions associated with growth and controls in that year projected from the 2005 simulation year. The United States EGU point source emissions estimates for the future year reference and control case are based on an Integrated Planning Model (IPM) run for criteria pollutants. Both control and growth factors were applied to a subset of the 2005 non-EGU point and non-point emissions to create the 2016 reference case. The 2005 v4 platform projection factors were the starting point for most of the 2016 SMOKE-based projections. Table II.2 Domain total estimated sector emissions Sector Year VOC Biogenics Cement Kilns Pulp& Paper Refineries Coke Ovens Iron/Steel Foundries Integrated Iron/Steel Electric Arc Furnaces Taconite Mining Ferroalloy Production Residential Wood Non-point Other Non-EGU point Other Average Fires Air/Locomotives/Marine Nonroad mobile Onroad mobile Canada + Mexico Point EGU Commercial Marine (SECA-C3) Area Fugutive Primary PM2.5 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 59,388,365 3,059 121,597 111,391 7,821 14,384 9,620 3,560 606 150 538,466 9,380,925 1,259,745 1,874,035 43,547 1,953,067 2,357,108 5,615,200 63,198 66,093 0 (TPY) for 2016 modeling scenario. NOX Primary PM2.5 SO2 2,218,207 130,536 240,139 118,206 16,110 5,867 31,925 15,707 41,350 3,412 33,786 1,633,261 1,263,276 189,428 1,342,849 1,259,578 4,239,971 2,841,702 1,826,582 1,534,234 0 0 1,106 10,067 7,379 368 1,366 2,856 622 884 201 192,492 325,820 67,614 459,641 35,604 106,975 118,986 242,412 30,078 7,407 47,438 0 48,737 170,393 132,337 27,952 3,590 29,045 6,088 8,823 4,580 4,720 1,243,154 877,620 49,094 9,087 2,879 26,786 2,855,974 3,793,362 439,987 0 NH3 0 679 10,859 3,556 1,084 166 167 119 4 510 6,586 126,802 140,948 36,777 940 2,345 82,094 1,077,333 36,706 0 0 The future year projection includes emissions reductions related to the NOx SIP Call, Boiler MACT, RICE, and the proposed Transport Rule (TR1). The residential wood combustion category is defined based on SCC codes 2104008 and 2104009. Certain sectors are based on a list of facilities that would likely be subject to a NESHAP related to that sector: cement kilns, pulp & paper, refineries, coke ovens, iron/steel foundries, integrated ion/steel, electric arc ------- furnaces, taconite mining, and ferroalloy production. The model domain total estimated emissions by source sector used in this modeling assessment are shown in Table II.2 for 2016 and Table II.3 for 2005. Table II.3 Domain total estimated sector emissions Sector Year VOC Biogenics Cement Kilns Pulp& Paper Refineries Coke Ovens Iron/Steel Foundries Integrated Iron/Steel Electric Arc Furnaces Taconite Mining Ferroalloy Production Residential Wood Non-point Other Non-EGU point Other Average Fires Air/Locomotives/Marine Nonroad mobile Onroad mobile Canada + Mexico Point ECU Commercial Marine (SECA-C3) Area Fugutive Primary PM2.5 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 59,388,365 9,044 128,390 112,622 7,914 15,522 9,687 3,630 607 150 647,141 12,453,787 1,747,491 1,874,035 58,890 3,353,497 4,734,097 5,615,200 63,404 42,438 0 (TPY) for 2005 modeling scenario NOX Primary PM2.5 SO2 2,218,207 217,948 246,714 150,924 16,145 5,985 31,961 15,707 41,350 3,412 38,190 1,659,651 1,297,668 189,428 1,909,526 2,083,093 9,006,389 2,841,702 3,726,455 1,169,907 0 0 2,342 11,979 7,750 416 1,435 2,862 622 1,035 201 222,081 326,140 71,899 459,641 53,671 181,038 258,251 242,412 39,544 10,501 47,315 0 157,163 345,917 246,351 29,239 3,611 32,646 6,088 11,285 4,580 5,280 1,251,930 1,215,203 49,094 154,016 195,597 176,525 2,855,974 10,380,773 740,998 0 NH3 0 861 10,990 3,556 1,089 166 167 119 4 510 7,238 126,802 141,230 36,777 773 1,969 156,276 1,077,333 21,684 0 0 Other North American emissions of criteria and toxic pollutants (including mercury) are based on a 2006 Canadian inventory and 1999 Mexican inventory. Both inventories are not grown or controlled when used as part of future year baseline inventories. Global emissions of criteria are included in the modeling system through boundary condition inflow. 2. Meteorological Input Data The gridded meteorological input data for the entire year of 2005 were derived from simulations of the Pennsylvania State University / National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model. This model, commonly referred to as MM5, is a limited-area, nonhydrostatic, terrain- following system that solves for the full set of physical and thermodynamic equations which govern atmospheric motions. Meteorological model input fields were prepared separately for each of the three domains shown in Figure II-l using MM5 version 3.7.4. The MM5 simulations were run on the same map projection as shown in Figure II-l. All three meteorological model runs were configured similarly. The selections for key MM5 physics options are shown below: ------- • Pleim-Xiu PEL and land surface schemes • Kain-Fritsh 2 cumulus parameterization • Reisner 2 mixed phase moisture scheme • RRTM longwave radiation scheme • Dudhia shortwave radiation scheme Three dimensional analysis nudging for temperature and moisture was applied above the boundary layer only. Analysis nudging for the wind field was applied above and below the boundary layer. The 36 km domain nudging weighting factors were 3.0 x 104 for wind fields and temperatures and 1.0 x 105 for moisture fields. The 12 km domain nudging weighting factors were 1.0 x 104 for wind fields and temperatures and 1.0 x 105 for moisture fields. Table II-4. Vertical layer structure (heights are layer top). CAMX Layers 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 MM5 Layers 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 Sigma P 1.000 0.995 0.990 0.985 0.980 0.970 0.960 0.950 0.940 0.930 0.920 0.910 0.900 0.880 0.860 0.840 0.820 0.800 0.770 0.740 0.700 0.650 0.600 0.550 0.500 0.450 0.400 0.350 0.300 0.250 0.200 0.150 0.100 0.050 0.000 Approximate Height (m) 0 38 77 115 154 232 310 389 469 550 631 712 794 961 1,130 1,303 1,478 1,657 1,930 2,212 2,600 3,108 3,644 4,212 4,816 5,461 6,153 6,903 7,720 8,621 9,625 10,764 12,085 13,670 15,674 Approximate Pressure (mb) 1000 995 991 987 982 973 964 955 946 937 928 919 910 892 874 856 838 820 793 766 730 685 640 595 550 505 460 415 370 325 280 235 190 145 100 All three sets of model runs were conducted in 5.5 day segments with 12 hours of overlap for spin-up purposes. All three domains contained 34 vertical layers with an approximately 38m deep surface layer and a 100 millibar top. The MM5 and CAMx vertical structures are shown in Table II-4 and do not vary by horizontal grid resolution. The meteorological outputs from all ------- three MM5 sets were processed to create model-ready inputs for CAMx using the MCIP processor. Before initiating the air quality simulations, it is important to identify the biases and errors associated with the meteorological modeling inputs. The 2005 MM5 model performance evaluations used an approach which included a combination of qualitative and quantitative analyses to assess the adequacy of the MM5 simulated fields. The qualitative aspects involved comparisons of the model-estimated synoptic patterns against observed patterns from historical weather chart archives. Additionally, the evaluations compared spatial patterns of estimated to observed monthly average rainfall and checked maximum planetary boundary layer (PEL) heights for reasonableness. Qualitatively, the model fields closely matched the observed synoptic patterns, which is not unexpected given the use of nudging. The operational evaluation included statistical comparisons of model/observed pairs (e.g., mean normalized bias, mean normalized error, index of agreement, root mean square errors, etc.) for multiple meteorological parameters. For this portion of the evaluation, five meteorological parameters were investigated: temperature, humidity, shortwave downward radiation, wind speed, and wind direction. The three individual MM5 evaluations are described elsewhere (Baker, 2009a, b, c). It was ultimately determined that the bias and error values associated with all three sets of 2005 meteorological data were generally within the range of past meteorological modeling results that have been used for air quality applications. 3. Initial and Boundary Conditions The lateral boundary and initial species concentrations are provided by a three-dimensional global atmospheric chemistry model, the GEOS-CHEM model (standard version 7-04-11). The global GEOS-CHEM model simulates atmospheric chemical and physical processes driven by assimilated meteorological observations from the NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS). This model was run for 2005 with a grid resolution of 2.0 degree x 2.5 degree (latitude-longitude) and 30 vertical layers up to 100 mb. The predictions were used to provide one-way dynamic boundary conditions at three-hour intervals and an initial concentration field for the 36 km CAMx simulations. The 36 km photochemical model simulation is used to supply initial and hourly boundary concentrations to the 12 km domains. The 36 km domain simulation includes 10 days of spin-up before the start of each calendar quarter that are not used in the analysis. The 12 km domain simulations include 3 days of spin-up before each calendar quarter. The future base conditions from the 36 km coarse grid modeling were used as the initial/boundary state for all subsequent future year 12 km finer grid modeling scenarios. ------- III. Base Case Model Performance Evaluation A. PM2.5 An operational model performance evaluation for the speciated components of PM2.5 (e.g., sulfate, nitrate, elemental carbon, organic carbon, etc.) was conducted using 2005 monitoring data in order to estimate the ability of the modeling system to replicate base year concentrations. The evaluation of PM2.5 component species includes comparisons of predicted and observed concentrations of sulfate (SO4), nitrate (NO3), ammonium (NH4), elemental carbon (EC), and organic carbon (OC). PM2.5 ambient measurements for 2005 were obtained from the Chemical Speciation Network (CSN) and the Interagency Monitoring of PROtected Visual Environments (IMPROVE). The CSN sites are generally located within urban areas and the IMPROVE sites are typically in rural/remote areas. The measurements at CSN and IMPROVE sites represent 24- hour average concentrations. In calculating the model performance metrics, the modeled hourly species predictions were aggregated to the averaging times of the measurements. Model performance statistics were calculated for observed/predicted pairs of daily concentrations (Boylan and Russell, 2006). The aggregated metrics and number (N) of prediction-observation pairs are shown by chemical specie and quarter in Table III-l. Model performance was compared to the performance found in recent regional PM2.5 model applications for other, non- EPA studies. Overall, the mean bias (bias) and mean error (error) statistics are within the range or close to that found by other groups in recent applications (Doraiswamy, 2010; Tesche et al., 2006). The model performance results give us confidence that our application of CAMx using this modeling platform provides a scientifically credible approach for estimating PM2.5 concentrations for the purposes of this assessment. ------- TABLE III-l. Model performance metrics for speciated PM2.5 averaged by quarter. Specie Quarter N Observed Predicted Bias Error PM2.5Sulfatelon PM2.5 Nitrate Ion PM2.5 Ammonium Ion PM2.5 Organic Carbon PM2.5 Elemental Carbon 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 6,218 6,537 6,108 5,894 5,870 6,146 5,828 5,757 4,045 4,075 3,869 3,763 5,882 6,180 5,836 5,600 6,368 6,552 6,061 5,937 2.7 3.8 5.4 2.5 2.4 0.8 0.5 1.3 1.7 1.5 1.8 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.4 2.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 4.2 4.4 5.2 3.7 1.9 0.6 0.2 1.1 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.4 2.2 1.7 2.3 2.0 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.6 0.7 0.0 1.3 -0.4 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.4 0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 2.0 1.6 1.9 1.5 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 B. Ozone An operational model performance evaluation for hourly and eight-hour daily maximum ozone was conducted in order to estimate the ability of the modeling system to replicate the base year concentrations. Ozone measurements were taken from the 2005 State/local monitoring site data in the Air Quality System (AQS) Aerometric Information Retrieval System (AIRS). The ozone metrics covered in this evaluation include one-hour and eight-hour average daily maximum ozone bias and error. The evaluation principally consists of statistical assessments of model versus observed pairs that are paired in time and space. This ozone model performance was limited to the prediction-observation pairs where observed ozone exceeded or equaled 60 ppb. This cutoff was applied to evaluate the model on days of elevated ozone which are more policy relevant. Aggregated performance metrics by quarter are shown in Table III-2 for daily maximum 1-hr average ozone and Table III-3 for daily maximum 8-hr average ozone. ------- TABLE III-2. Model performance metrics for daily maximum 1-hr avg ozone by quarter. Fractional Fractional Quarter N Observed Predicted Bias Error Bias Error 2 3 19,821 22,699 76 80 65 71 -11 -9 12 13 -16 -13 18 17 TABLE III-3. Model performance metrics for daily maximum 8-hr avg ozone by quarter. Fractional Fractional Quarter N Observed Predicted Bias Error Bias Error 2 19,833 69 60 -9 11 -15 17 3 22,714 70 64 -6 10 -10 16 This model performance is consistent with photochemical modeling used to support other national regulations (USEPA, 2010). IV. References Baker, K., Dolwick, P., 2009a. Meteorological Modeling Performance Evaluation for the Annual 2005 Continental U.S. 36-km Domain Simulation. US Environmental Protection Agency OAQPS. Baker, K., Dolwick, P., 2009b. Meteorological Modeling Performance Evaluation for the Annual 2005 Eastern U.S. 12-km Domain Simulation. US Environmental Protection Agency OAQPS, RTF. Baker, K., Dolwick, P., 2009c. Meteorological Modeling Performance Evaluation for the Annual 2005 Western U.S. 12-km Domain Simulation, in: EPA, U. (Ed.). US Environmental Protection Agency OAQPS. Baker, K., Scheff, P., 2007. Photochemical model performance for PM2.5 sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, and precursor species SO2, HNO3, and NH3 at background monitor locations in the central and eastern United States. Atmospheric Environment 41, 6185-6195. Boylan, J.W., Russell, A.G., 2006. PM and light extinction model performance metrics, goals, and criteria for three- dimensional air quality models. Atmospheric Environment 40, 4946-4959. Chang, J.S., Brost, R.A., Isaksen, I.S.A., Madronich, S., Middleton, P., Stockwell, W.R., Walcek, C.J., 1987. A 3- Dimensional Eulerian Acid Deposition Model - Physical Concepts and Formulation. J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos. 92, 14681-14700. Doraiswamy, P., Hogrefe, C., Hao, W., Civerolo, K., Ku, J., Sistla, G., 2010. A Retrospective Comparison of Model-Based Forecasted PM2.5 Concentrations with Measurements. Journal of Air & Waste Management Association 60, 1293-1308. ENVIRON, 2008. User's Guide Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions. ENVIRON International Corporation, Novato. Gery, M.W., Whitten, G.Z., Killus, J.P., Dodge, M.C., 1989. A Photochemical Kinetics Mechanism for Urban and Regional Scale Computer Modeling. J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos. 94, 12925-12956. Houyoux, M.R., Vukovich, J.M., Coats, C.J., Wheeler, N.J.M., Kasibhatla, P.S., 2000. Emission inventory development and processing for the Seasonal Model for Regional Air Quality (SMRAQ) project. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres 105, 9079-9090. 10 ------- Nenes, A., Pandis, S.N., Pilinis, C., 1999. Continued development and testing of a new thermodynamic aerosol module for urban and regional air quality models. Atmospheric Environment 33, 1553-1560. Nobel, C.E., McDonald-Buller, E.G., Kimura, Y., Allen, D.T., 2001. Accounting for spatial variation of ozone productivity inNOx emission trading. Environmental Science & Technology 35, 4397-4407. Russell, A.G., 2008. EPA Supersites Program-related emissions-based paniculate matter modeling: Initial applications and advances. J. Air Waste Manage. Assoc. 58, 289-302. Strader, R., Lurmann, F., Pandis, S.N., 1999. Evaluation of secondary organic aerosol formation in winter. Atmospheric Environment 33, 4849-4863. Tesche, T.W., Morris, R., Tonnesen, G., McNally, D., Boylan, J., Brewer, P., 2006. CMAQ/CAMx annual 2002 performance evaluation over the eastern US. Atmospheric Environment 40, 4906-4919. USEPA, 2007. Guidance on the Use of Models and Other Analyses for Demonstrating Attainment of Air Quality Goals for Ozone, PM2.5, and Regional Haze, RTF. USEPA, 2010. Air Quality Modeling Technical Support Document: Boiler Source Sector Rules (EPA-454/R-10- 006), Research Triangle Park, North Carolina. Wagstrom, K.M., Pandis, S.N., Yarwood, G., Wilson, G.M., Morris, R.E., 2008. Development and application of a computationally efficient paniculate matter apportionment algorithm in a three-dimensional chemical transport model. Atmospheric Environment 42, 5650-5659. 11 ------- United States Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards Publication No. EP A-454/R-11 -006 Environmental Protection Air Quality Assessment Division August 2011 Agency Research Triangle Park, NC ------- |