vvEPA
United Mates
Environmental Protection
Meteorological Model Performance for Annual
2007 Simulations
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EPA-454/R-11-007
October 2011
Meteorological Model Performance for Annual
2007 Simulations
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
Air Quality Assessment Division
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
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1. INTRODUCTION
The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) has been applied for the entire year of
2007 to support future emissions and photochemical modeling applications. It is expected that
these meteorological fields will be converted and used to support assessments of ozone, PM2.5,
visibility, and a variety of toxics. Charts showing monthly precipitation relative to an area's
climatic norm are shown in Appendix A for additional information about regional differences in
meteorology in 2007 compared to the weather an area might typically experience.
The WRF model was applied to a 36 km continental United States scale domain (36US1) and a
12 km continental United States scale domain (12US1) for the entire year of 2007. Both model
simulations were initialized directly from meteorological analysis data. The model
parameterizations and options outlined in this document were chosen based on a series of
sensitivity runs performed by U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Research and
Development that provided an optimal configuration based on temperature, mixing ratio, and
wind field. All WRF simulations were done by Computer Sciences Corporation (CSC) under
contract from the United States Environmental Protection Agency.
2 MODEL CONFIGURATION
2.1 Configuration of the 12US domain
Meteorological inputs are generated with version 3.1 of the Weather Research and Forecasting
model (WRF), Advanced Research WRF (ARW) core (Skamarock, 2008). Important selected
physics options include Pleim-Xiu land surface model, Asymmetric Convective Model version 2
planetary boundary layer scheme, Kain-Fritsh cumulus parameterization, Morrison double
moment microphysics, RRTMG longwave, and RRTMG shortwave radiation scheme (Gilliam
and Pleim, 2010).
The WRF model was initialized using the 12NAM analysis product provided by NCDC
(http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/data.php?name=access#hires weather datasets) and backfilled
with 36 km AWIP/EDAS analysis (ds609.2) from NCAR
(http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/mm5/mm5v3/data/free data.html) where 12NAM is not available.
Three dimensional analyses nudging for temperature and moisture is applied above the boundary
layer only. Analysis nudging for the wind is applied above and below the boundary layer. The
model is applied in blocks of 5 and a half days. Soil moisture and soil temperature are carried
over from one 5.5 day block to the next using the ipxwrf program (Gilliam and Pleim, 2010).
Landuse and land cover data are based on 2001 National Land Cover Data
(http://www.mrlc.gov/nlcd2001.php) that is translated for use in WRF.
The 12US domain is shown in Figure 2.1. The domain is a lambert conformal projection
centered at (-97, 40) with true latitudes at 33 and 45 degrees north. The domain contains 459
cells in the X direction and 299 cells in the Y direction. All cells are 12 km square. There are 34
layers resolving the vertical atmosphere up to 50 mb, the thinnest layers being nearest the surface
to better resolve the variations in the planetary boundary layer.
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286 -
267 •
243 •
229 •
210 •
191 -
172 -
153 •
134 •
115 •
96 •
77 •
53 '
39 '
20
1
1
58
172
229
286
343
400
457
Figure 2.1 Map of WRF model domain: 12US
2.2 Configuration of the 3 6US domain
Meteorological inputs are generated with version 3.3 of the Weather Research and Forecasting
model (WRF), Advanced Research WRF (ARW) core (Skamarock, 2008). Important selected
physics options include Pleim-Xiu land surface model, Asymmetric Convective Model version 2
planetary boundary layer scheme, Kain-Fritsh cumulus parameterization, Morrison double
moment microphysics, RRTMG longwave, and RRTMG shortwave radiation scheme (Gilliam
and Pleim, 2010).
The WRF model was initialized using the 12NAM analysis product provided by NCDC
(http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/data.php?name=access#hires_weather_datasets) and backfilled
with 36 km AWIP/EDAS analysis (ds609.2) from NCAR
(http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/mm5/mm5v3/data/free_data.html) where 12NAM is not available.
Three dimensional analyses nudging for temperature, wind field, and moisture is applied above
the boundary layer only. The model is applied in blocks of 5 and a half days. Soil moisture and
soil temperature are carried over from one 5.5 day block to the next using the ipxwrf program
(Gilliam and Pleim, 2010). Landuse and land cover data are based on U.S. Geological Survey
(USGS) data that is distributed with the WRF model.
The 36US domain is shown in Figure 2.2. The domain is a lambert conformal projection
centered at (-97, 40) with true latitudes at 33 and 45 degrees north. The domain contains 148
cells in the X direction and 112 cells in the Y direction. All cells are 36 km square. There are 34
layers resolving the vertical atmosphere up to 50 mb, the thinnest layers being nearest the surface
to better resolve the variations in the planetary boundary layer.
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106 -
99 -
92 -
85 -
78 -
71 -
64 -
57 -
50 •
43 -
36 -
29 -
22 -
15 -
1 19 37 55
Figure 2.2 Map of WRF model domain: 36US
73
91 109 127 145
2.3 WRF Conversion to Photochemical Model Inputs
CMAQ-ready meteorological input files were prepared using the Meteorology-Chemistry
Interface Processor (MCIP) package (Otte and Pleim, 2010). The code is available at
www.cmascenter.org. MCIP v4.0 was used for the 36US1 domain and version 3.6 of the MCIP
processor was used to generate CMAQ ready meteorological files for the 12US1 domain. CAMx
meteorological input files for both 36US1 and 12US1 were prepared using WRFCAMx version
3.1 (ENVIRON, 2008). The WRFCAMx processor is available at www.camx.com.
Table 2.3 shows the vertical layer structure used in WRF and the layer collapsing approach to
generated photochemical model (PCM) meteorological inputs. The photochemical models
resolve the vertical atmosphere with 24 layers, preserving greater resolution in the planetary
boundary layer to better resolve the diurnal changes in PEL heights.
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Table 2.3. Vertical layer structure of WRF simulations.
Height (m) Pressure (mb) WRF Depth (m) PCM Depth (m)
17,145
14,490
12,593
11,094
9,844
8,766
7,815
6,962
6,188
5,477
4,820
4,208
3,635
3,095
2,586
2,198
1,917
1,644
1,466
1,292
1,121
952
787
705
624
544
465
386
307
230
153
114
76
38
50
95
140
185
230
275
320
365
410
455
500
545
590
635
680
716
743
770
788
806
824
842
860
869
878
887
896
905
914
923
932
937
941
946
34
33
32
31
30
29
28
27
26
25
24
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
2,655
1,896
1,499
1,250
1,078
951
853
775
711
657
612
573
539
509
388
281
273
178
174
171
168
165
82
81
80
80
79
78
78
77
38
38
38
38
24
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
4,552
2,749
2,029
1,627
1,368
1,185
539
509
388
281
273
178
174
171
168
165
163
160
157
78
77
76
38
38
3 MODEL PERFORMANCE DESCRIPTION
One of the objectives of this evaluation is to determine if the meteorological model output fields
represent a reasonable approximation of the actual meteorology that occurred during the
modeling period. A second objective is to identify and quantify the existing biases and errors of
the meteorological predictions in order to allow for a downstream assessment of how the air
quality modeling results are affected by issues associated with the meteorological data.
Performance results are presented to allow those using this data to determine the adequacy of the
model simulation for their particular needs.
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The observation database for temperature, wind speed, wind direction, and mixing ratio is based
on measurements made at United States and Canada airports. The observation data (ds472) is
available from NCAR (http://dss.ucar.edU/datasets/ds472.0 ). Monitors used for evaluation as
part of the NCAR observation package are shown in Figure 3.1.
Figure 3.1 Stations used for model performance: ds472 network.
Rainfall analysis estimated by the PRISM model is approximately 2 to 4 km resolution and is
compared to model estimates. The rainfall analysis data does not include any portion of Canada,
Mexico, or anywhere off-shore of the United States (http://www.prism.oregonstate.edu ). The
rainfall analysis is reprojected to the modeling domain for direct qualitative comparison to model
estimates.
Shortwave downward radiation measurements are taken at SURFRAD
(http://www.srrb.noaa.gov/surfrad ) and ISIS (http://www. srrb.noaa.gov/isis/index.html) monitor
locations. The SURFRAD network consists of 7 sites and the ISIS network consists of 8 sites
across the United States.
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Figure 3.2 Stations used for model performance: SURFRAD and ISIS networks.
Model performance is described using quantitative metrics: mean bias, mean (gross) error,
fractional bias, and fractional error (Boylan and Russell, 2006). These metrics are useful because
they describe model performance in the measured units of the meteorological variable and as a
normalized percentage. Since wind direction is reported in compass degrees estimating
performance metrics is problematic since modeled and observed northerly winds may be similar
but the difference would result in a very large "bias". Wind field displacement, or the difference
in the U and V vectors between modeled (M) and observed (O) values, is used to assess wind
vector performance (Equation 1). Performance is best when these metrics approach 0.
(1) Wind displacement (km) = (UM - U0 + VM - V0)*(l km/1000 m)*(3600 s/hr)*(l hr)
Rainfall performance is examined qualitatively with side-by-side monthly total rainfall plots. The
WRF model outputs predictions approximately 15 meters above the surface while observations
are at 10 meters. WRF outputs near instantaneous values (90 second time step) as opposed to the
values with longer averaging times taken at monitor stations. This should be considered when
interpreting model performance metrics.
3.1 Wind Field
Wind speed estimates are compared to surface based measurements made atNCAR's ds472
network monitors for the 12US (Figure 3.1.1) and 36US (Figure 3.1.2) domains. Outliers are not
plotted on these box plots to emphasize predominant features in model performance. The outer
edges of the box represent the 25th and 75th percentiles and the edges of the whiskers represent
the 10th and 90th percentiles of the distributions. These plots show the entire distribution of
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hourly bias (model-observation) by month and by hour of the day. In addition, these Figures
show other metrics including mean error, fractional bias, and fractional error.
Wind Speed Bias
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ti n
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— . ' ' ' ' ' ' r
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= s=i H H
D 1
£ 7 E 9 1C 11 12 13 14 IE 1E 17 1B 19 20 21 22 23
KiLraTday(GMT:
Wind Speed Bias
Wind Speed Error
Wind Speed Fractional Bias
O -
8 "
T T T T T
_L _L _L _L _L
1 1
T T
-L -
T
-
8 H
Wind Speed Fractional Error
-
Figure 3.1.1. Distribution of hourly bias by hour and hourly bias, error, fractional bias, and fractional
error by month. Metrics shown for 12US domain.
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Wind Speed Bias
f -
1D 11 12 13 14 1E 1E 17 19 19 SO
KiL-oTdayfGMT;
21 22 23
Wind Speed Bias
Wind Speed Error
B B
Wind Speed Fractional Bias
B S
8 .
7
Wind Speed Fractional Error
8 H
-
Figure 3.1.2. Distribution of hourly bias by hour and hourly bias, error, fractional bias, and fractional
error by month. Metrics shown for 36US domain.
Wind vector displacement (km) is estimated at NCAR's ds472 network monitors for the 12US
(Figure 3.1.3) and 36US (Figure 3.1.4) domains. Outliers are not plotted on these box plots to
emphasize predominant features in model performance. The outer edges of the box represent the
25l and 75th percentiles and the edges of the whiskers represent the 10th and 90th percentiles of
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the distributions. These plots show the entire distribution of hourly wind displacement by month
and by hour of the day.
Wind Displacement
o
CM
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Hour of day (GMT)
Wind Displacement
H
~i
A
I
H
I
A
I
R
i
N
I
D
Figure 3.1.3. Distribution of hourly wind displacement by hour and month. Metrics shown for 12US
domain.
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Wind Displacement
o _
IN
I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I
0123456789 11 13
Hour of day (GMT)
i i i i i i i i i
15 17 19 21 23
Wind Displacement
Ki
o .
CNJ
E " ~
O _
0 -
T - ^^ " ^ T ^ _ T
— — — — —
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Figure 3.1.4. Distribution of hourly wind displacement by hour and month. Metrics shown for 36US
domain.
3.2 Temperature
Temperature estimates are compared to surface based measurements made atNCAR's ds472
network monitors for the 12US (Figure 3.2.1) and 36US (Figure 3.2.2) domains. Outliers are not
10
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plotted on these box plots to emphasize predominant features in model performance. The outer
edges of the box represent the 25th and 75th percentiles and the edges of the whiskers represent
the 10th and 90th percentiles of the distributions. These plots show the entire distribution of
hourly bias (model-observation) by month and by hour of the day. In addition, these Figures
show other metrics including mean error, fractional bias, and fractional error.
Temperature Bias
O o
V -
I I I I I I I I I I I I I I
1D 11 12 15 14 15 16 17 1fl 19 2D 21 22 23
Temperature Bias
Temperature Error
Temperature Fractional Bias
Temperature Fractional Error
Figure 3.2.1. Distribution of hourly bias by hour and hourly bias, error, fractional bias, and fractional
11
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error by month. Metrics shown for 12US domain.
V -
Temperature Bias
I I I
"=p ^
I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I
D 1 2 5 4 5 f. 7 e 5 1C 11 12 13 14 IS IE 17 19 19 £0 SI £2 S3
Temperature Bias
Temperature Error
u
a a
Temperature Fractional Bias
to -
# O
Temperature Fractional Error
Figure 3.2.2. Distribution of hourly bias by hour and hourly bias, error, fractional bias, and fractional
error by month. Metrics shown for 36US domain.
3.3 Mixing Ratio
12
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Water mixing ratio estimates are compared to surface based measurements made at NCAR's
ds472 network monitors for the 12US (Figure 3.3.1) and 36US (Figure 3.3.2) domains. Outliers
are not plotted on these box plots to emphasize predominant features in model performance. The
outer edges of the box represent the 25l and 75l percentiles and the edges of the whiskers
->th
represent the 10th and 90m percentiles of the distributions. These plots show the entire
distribution of hourly bias (model-observation) by month and by hour of the day. In addition,
these Figures show other metrics including mean error, fractional bias, and fractional error.
Mixing Ratio Bias
B B B B B B B
1 1 1
| 1 1
-&-&-
T -
I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I
B 1 Z 3 4 5 6 7 B 9 1D 11 12 13 14 1E 1E 17 13 19 20 21 22
l-au-oTdayfGMT;
Mixing Ratio Bias
T -
^^
^^ * ^
1
1
1
l
Mixing Ratio Error
Mixing Ratio Fractional Bias
Mixing Ratio Fractional Error
13
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Figure 3.3.1. Distribution of hourly bias by hour and hourly bias, error, fractional bias, and fractional
error by month. Metrics shown for 12US domain.
Mixing Ratio Bias
i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i
D 1 2 i 4 5 e 7 e 5 10 11 12 13 14 IE 1E 17 18 19 HI 21 £2 23
Mixing Ratio Bias
I I
F
Mixing Ratio Error
I I
I I
Mixing Ratio Fractional Bias
# D
"i i
Mixing Ratio Fractional Error
8 -
Figure 3.3.2. Distribution of hourly bias by hour and hourly bias, error, fractional bias, and fractional
error by month. Metrics shown for 36US domain.
14
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3.4 Solar Radiation
Photosynthetically activated radiation (PAR) is a fraction of shortwave downward radiation and
is an important input for the biogenic emissions model for estimating isoprene (Carlton and
Baker, 2011). Isoprene emissions are important for regional ozone chemistry and play a role in
secondary organic aerosol formation. Radiation performance evaluation also gives an indirect
assessment of how well the model captures cloud formation during daylight hours.
Shortwave downward radiation estimates are compared to surface based measurements made at
SURFRAD and ISIS network monitors for the 12US domain (Figure 3.4.1) and 36US domain
(Figure 3.4.2). Outliers are not plotted on these box plots to emphasize predominant features in
model performance. The outer edges of the box represent the 25th and 75th percentiles and the
edges of the whiskers represent the 10th and 90th percentiles of the distributions. These plots
show the entire distribution of hourly bias (model-observation) by month and by hour of the day.
Shortwave Radiation Bias: 12US1 2007
$ -
O
in
s _
Ill
1
M
M
A
i
O
i
N
i
D
Shortwave Radiation Bias: 12US1 2007
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S -
0"
]
\ i i i i i i i i r
\ i r
t
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Hour of day (GMT)
Table 3.4.1. Distribution of hourly bias by month (top) and hour of the day (bottom). Metrics shown for
12US domain.
15
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Shortwave Radiation Bias: 36US1 2007
E
I
M
M
A
0
N
D
Shortwave Radiation Bias: 3GUS1 2007
E
I
1
01
34
8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Hour of day (GMT)
Table 3.4.2. Distribution of hourly bias by month (top) and hour of the day (bottom). Metrics shown for
36US domain.
3.5 Precipitation
Monthly total rainfall is plotted for each grid cell to assess how well the model captures the
spatial variability and magnitude of convective and non-convective rainfall events. Rainfall is
only estimated by the PRISM analysis inside the continental United States. This means
comparisons of monthly total rainfall offshore and in Canada and Mexico are not possible with
this product. WRF rainfall estimates by month are shown for all grid cells in the domain.
Monthly total estimates are shown for the 12US domain from Figure 3.5.1 to Figure 3.5.4 and for
the 36US domain from Figure 3.5.5 to Figure 3.5.8.
16
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PRISM Analysis
JAN - Total Monthly Rainfall - 1ZUS1
WRF Estimate
JAN - Total Monthly Rainfall - 12US1
20 ;
IB
16
14
12
10
8
e
A
2
0
INCHES
INCHES
January 30,2007 0:00:00
Min= Oat(1,1),Max- 33at(49,23B)
January 1,2007 0:00:00
Min- 0 at (71,118), Max= 37 at (46,284)
PRISM Analysis
FEE - Total Monthly Rainfall - 12US1
WRF Estimate
FEB - Total Monthly Rainfall - 1ZUS1
20 ;
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
INCHES
20 299
18
16
14
12
10
459 INCHES
March 1,2007 0:00:00
Min= Oat(1,1),Max= 28at(49,238)
February 1,2007 0:00:00
Min= Oat(l19,3), Max= 24 at(459,188)
20 299
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
INCHES
PRISM Analysis
MAR -Total Monthly Rainfall - 12US1
459
Min=
March 31,2007 0:00:00
Oat(1.1),Max= 39at(49,238)
20 299
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
INCHES
WRF Estimate
MAR - Total Monthly Rainfall - 12US1
459
Min-
March 1,2007 0:00:00
0 at (98,1), Max= 43 at (50,275)
Figure 3.5.1 PRISM analysis (left) and WRF (right) estimated monthly total rainfall for January,
February, and March.
17
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PRISM Analysis
APR - Total Monthly Rainfall - 1ZUS1
WRF Estimate
APR -Total Monthly Rainfall - 12US1
20 ;
IB
16
14
12
10
8
e
A
2
0
INCHES
20 299
18
16
14
12
10
459 INCHES ,
April 30,2007 0:00:00
Min= Oat(1,1),Max- 15at(49,23B)
April 1,2007 0:00:00
Min- 0 at (115,26), Max- 22 at (41,292)
PRISM Analysis
MAV -Total Monthly Rainfall - 12US1
WRF Estimate
MAY - Total Monthly Rainfall - 12US1
20 ;
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
INCHES
459 INCHES
May 30,2007 0:00:00
Min= Oat(1,liMax= 14at(215,SS)
May 1,2007 0:00:00
Min= Oat (100,1 XMax= 31 at (423,8)
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
INCHES
299
PRISM Analysis
JUN - Total Monthly Rainfall - 12US1
1 459
June 29,2007 0:00:00
Min= Oat(1,1),Max= 21 at (219,120)
INCHES
WRF Estimate
JUN -Total Monthly Rainfall - 12US1
459
June 1,2007 0:00:00
Min= 0 at (79,48), Max= 33 at (348,27)
Figure 3.5.2 PRISM analysis (left) and WRF (right) estimated monthly total rainfall for April, May, and
June.
18
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PRISM Analysis
JUL-Total Monthly Rainfall - 1ZUS1
WRF Estimate
JUL-Total Monthly Rainfall-1ZUS1
20 ;
IB
16
14
12
10
8
e
A
2
0
INCHES
459 INCHES
July 29,2007 0:00:00
Min= Oat(1,1).Max- 22at(210,3S)
July 1,2007 0:00:00
Min- 0 at("18,111), Max- 38at(201,1)
PRISM Analysis
AUG - Total Monthly Rainfall - 1ZUS1
WRF Estimate
AUG -Total Monthly Rainfall - 12US1
20 ;
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
INCHES
August 28,2007 0:00:00
Min= Oat(1,l),Max= 19 at(251,!80)
August 1,2007 0:00:00
Min= Oat(67,100),Max= 32at(134,3)
20 299
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
INCHES
PRISM Analysis
SEP - Total Monthly Rainfall - 12US1
459
September 27,2007 0:00:00
Min= Oat(1.1),Max= 14at(33S,11)
WRF Estimate
SEP -Total Monthly Rainfall - 12US1
459
September 1,2007 0:00:00
Min= 0 at(69,99), Max= 41 at(100,1)
Figure 3.5.3 PRISM analysis (left) and WRF (right) estimated monthly total rainfall for July, August, and
September.
19
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PRISM Analysis
OCT - Total Monthly Rainfall - 1ZUS1
WRF Estimate
OCT-Total Monthly Rainfall - 12US1
20 ;
IB
16
14
12
10
8
e
A
2
0
INCHES
20 299
18
16
14
12
10
INCHES
Min=
October 27,2007 0:00:00
Oat(1,1),Max- 29at(49,23B)
Min-
October 1,2007 0:00:00
0 at (68,87), Max- 52 at (403,2)
PRISM Analysis
NOV -Total Monthly Rainfall - 12US1
WRF Estimate
NOV - Total Monthly Rainfall - 12US1
20 ;
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
INCHES
20 299
18
16
14
12
10
INCHES
Mill-
November 26,2007 0:00:00
Oat(1,1).Max= 23at(49,238)
Min-
November 1,2007 0:00:00
Oat(105,ll2XMax= 32at(SO,27S)
20 299
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
INCHES
PRISM Analysis
DEC - Total Monthly Rainfall - 12US1
459
Min-
December 26,2007 0:00:00
Oat(1.1),Max= 45at(48,238)
WRF Estimate
DEC -Total Monthly Rainfall - 12US1
Min=
December 1,2007 0:00:00
0 at (142,13), Max= 30 at (58,229)
459
Figure 3.5.4 PRISM analysis (left) and WRF (right) estimated monthly total rainfall for October,
November, and December.
20
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PRISM Analysis
JAN - Total Monthly Rainfall - 36US1
WRF Estimate
JAN - Total Monthly Rainfall - 3SUS1
20 112
IB
16
14
12
10
8
e
A
INCHES
]48 INCHES ,
January 30,2007 0:00:00
Min- Oat(1,1),Max- 20at(21,91)
January 1,2007 0:00:00
Min- 0 at (29,52), Max- 32 at (20,103)
20 112
18
16
14
12
10
8
e
4
2
0
INCHES
PRISM Analysis
FEE - Total Monthly Rainfall - 3SUS1
March 1,2007 0:00:00
Min= Oat(1,1),Max= 2Sat(16,72)
WRF Estimate
FEB - Total Monthly Rainfall - 36US1
Min=
February 1,2007 0:00:00
Oat(61,16). Max= 21 at(148,61)
20 112
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
INCHES
PRISM Analysis
MAR -Total Monthly Rainfall - 36US1
Min-
March 31,2007 0:00:00
Oat(1.1),Max= 23at(21,91)
WRF Estimate
MAR - Total Monthly Rainfall - 3SUS1
Min-
March 1,2007 0:00:00
0 at (53,4), Max- 34 at (20,103)
Figure 3.5.5 PRISM analysis (left) and WRF (right) estimated monthly total rainfall for January,
February, and March.
21
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PRISM Analysis
APR - Total Monthly Rainfall -36US1
WRF Estimate
APR - Total Monthly Rainfall - 36US1
20 112
IB
16
14
12
10
8
e
A
INCHES
]48 INCHES ,
April 30,2007 0:00:00
Min= Oat(1,1),Max- 11at(12S,67)
April 1,2007 0:00:00
Min- 0 at(34,24), Max- 16at(1B,109)
20 112
18
16
14
12
10
8
e
4
2
0
INCHES
PRISM Analysis
MAV - Total Monthly Rainfall - 36US1
May 30,2007 0:00:00
Min= Oat(1,1),Max= 14at(77,3Z)
148 INCHES
WRF Estimate
MAY - Total Monthly Rainfall - 3SUS1
Min=
May 1,2007 0:00:00
0 at(31,32), Max= 25 at(148,16)
20 112
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
INCHES
PRISM Analysis
JUN - Total Monthly Rainfall - 3SUS1
Min=
June 29,2007 0:00:00
Oat(1.1),Max= 19at(78,SO)
WRF Estimate
JUN - Total Monthly Rainfall - 3SUS1
June 1,2007 0:00:00
Min= 0 at(34,36), Max= 20at(118,7)
Figure 3.5.6 PRISM analysis (left) and WRF (right) estimated monthly total rainfall for April, May, and
June.
22
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PRISM Analysis
JUL - Total Monthly Rainfall - 36US1
20 112
IB
16
14
12
10
8
e
A
2
0
INCHES
Min-
July 29,2007 0:00:00
Oat(1,1),Max- 1Sat(76,22)
WRF Estimate
JUL - Total Monthly Rainfall - 36US1
Min-
July 1,2007 0:00:00
0 at (18,49), Max- 39 at (52,9)
20 112
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
INCHES
PRISM Analysis
AUG - Total Monthly Rainfall - 36US1
August 28,2007 0:00:00
Min= Oat(1,1),Max= 18at(89,70)
WRF Estimate
AUG - Total Monthly Rainfall - 3SUS1
Min=
August 1,2007 0:00:00
0 at (19,56), Max= 32 at (54,1 )
20 112
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
INCHES
PRISM Analysis
SEP - Total Monthly Rainfall - 36US1
Min=
September 27,2007 0:00:00
Oat(1.1),Max= 14at(117,14)
WRF Estimate
SEP - Total Monthly Rainfall - 36US1
Min-
September 1,2007 0:00:00
0 at (28,54), yax- 27 at (39,10)
Figure 3.5.7 PRISM analysis (left) and WRF (right) estimated monthly total rainfall for July, August, and
September.
23
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PRISM Analysis
OCT - Total Monthly Rainfall - 36US1
20 112
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
INCHES
October 27,2007 0:00:00
Min- Oat(1,1),Max- 21at(16,72)
WRF Estimate
OCT - Total Monthly Rainfall - 36US1
Min-
October 1,2007 0:00:00
0 at (29,45), Max- 44at(146,18)
20 112
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
INCHES
PRISM Analysis
NOV - Total Monthly Rainfall - 36US1
November 26,2007 0:00:00
Min= Oat(1,1),Max= 18at(23,83)
WRF Estimate
NOV - Total Monthly Rainfall - 36US1
20 112
INCHES
November 1,2007 0:00:00
Min= 0 at(55,16), Max= 26at(21,103)
20 112
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
INCHES
PRISM Analysis
DEC - Total Monthly Rainfall - 36US1
Min-
December 26,2007 0:00:00
Oat(1.1),Max= 33at(22,90)
WRF Estimate
DEC - Total Monthly Rainfall - 36US1
Min=
December 1,2007 0:00:00
Oat (65,15), Max- 26at(20,103)
Figure 3.5.8 PRISM analysis (left) and WRF (right) estimated monthly total rainfall for October,
November, and December.
24
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3.6 Maximum Predicted PEL
Maximum planetary boundary layer heights are plotted for each grid cell by month for the 12US
domain (Figure 3.6.1) and 36US domain (Figure 3.6.2). These plots are generated to help assess
whether unrealistic stratospheric intrusion may occur in any of the simulated months.
Table 3.6.1. Monthly maximum estimated planetary boundary layer heights estimated by WRF. Plots
show 12US domain.
25
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Maximum Monthly Nil lleiqlil
nMoiillily nil III!
AJ'M -netisi
April 1.200/0:00:00
Mid- 6/i ol (10&.1 D/). MEW- 8230 at
July 1.Z0070t>0:00
Mln 139 at (70,981 Max- « 191 at (33.51)
September 1.2007*100:00
Mm 177 -I |--i .'iV H,« «78 at(S1,77)
inn MontlilyPBL Height
OCr-38LlSl
Hovtmbtr 1JM7 OAflaM
Min- .-.,,..,!,: H,»J, I ',.-. :;.'..••; 4! i-v •. i i
Figure 3.6.2. Monthly maximum estimated planetary boundary layer heights estimated by WRF. Plots
show 36US domain.
26
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4 REFERENCES
Boylan, J.W., Russell, A.G., 2006. PM and light extinction model performance metrics, goals,
and criteria for three-dimensional air quality models. Atmospheric Environment 40, 4946-4959.
Carlton, A.G., Baker, K.R., 2011. Photochemical Modeling of the Ozark Isoprene Volcano:
MEGAN, BEIS, and Their Impacts on Air Quality Predictions. Environmental Science &
Technology 45, 4438-4445.
ENVIRON, 2008. User's Guide Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions. ENVIRON
International Corporation, Novato.
Gilliam, R.C., Pleim, I.E., 2010. Performance Assessment of New Land Surface and Planetary
Boundary Layer Physics in the WRF-ARW. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
49, 760-774.
Otte, T.L., Pleim, I.E., 2010. The Meteorology-Chemistry Interface Processor (MCIP) for the
CMAQ modeling system: updates through MCIPv3.4.1. Geoscientific Model Development 3,
243-256.
Skamarock, W.C., Klemp, J.B., Dudhia, J., Gill, D.O., Barker, D.M., Duda, M.G, Huang, X.,
Wang, W., Powers, J.G., 2008. A Description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 3.
27
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APPPENDIX A
Climatic Charts for 2007
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Jan 2007 Divisional Ranks
National Climatic Data Center/NESDIS/NOAA
Temperature
Coldest Below Normal Normal
Above Much Recced
Normal Above Warmest
Feb 2007 Divisional Ranks
National Climatic Data Center/NESDIS/NOAA
Temperature
Record Much Below Near Above Much Recor
Coldest Below Normal Normal Normal Above Warme
Normal Normal
Mar 2007 Divisional Ranks
National Climatic Data Center/NESDIS/NOAA
Temperature
Apr 2007 Divisional Ranks
National Climatic Data Center/NESDIS/NOAA
Temperature
Near Above Much Record
Normal Normal Above Warmesi
Normsl
Record Much Below Near Above Much Record
CoWMI Below normal Normal Normal Above warmest
May 2007 Divisional Ranks
National Climatic Data Center/NESDIS/NOAA
Temperature
Much Below
Below Normal
Normal
Much
Above
Normal
Jun 2007 Divisional Ranks
National Climatic Data Center/NESDIS/NOAA
Temperature
Figure A.I Climatic rainfall rankings by climate division: January to June 2007.
-------
Jul 2007 Divisional Ranks
National Climatic Data Center/NESDIS/NOAA
Temperature
Near Above Much Record
Normal Normal Above Warmest
Aug 2007 Divisional Ranks
National Climatic Data Center/NESDIS/NOAA
Temperature
Record Much Below Near Above Much Reco
Coldesl Below Normal Normal Normal Above Warm
Sep 2007 Divisional Ranks
National Climatic Data Center/NESDIS/NOAA
Temperature
Oct 2007 Divisional Ranks
National Climatic Data Center/NESDIS/NOAA
Temperature
tux,
Near Above Much Record
Normal Normal Above Warmest
Normal
Nov 2007 Divisional Ranks
National Climatic Data Center/NESDIS/NOAA
Temperature
Dec 2007 Divisional Ranks
National Climatic Data Center/NESDIS/NOAA
Temperature
Much
Below
Mo-ma!
Near Above Much Fir-cord
Normal Normal Above Warmest
Much Below Near Above Much
Below Normal Normal Normal Above
Figure A.2 Climatic rainfall rankings by climate division: July to December 2007.
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United States Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards Publication No. EP A-454/R-11 -007
Environmental Protection Air Quality Assessment Division October 2011
Agency Research Triangle Park, NC
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