En^nm'enta! Protection EPA-600/R-06/057
. Agency February 2006
EPA U.S. National
MARKAL Database:
Database Documentation
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EPA-600/R-06/057
February 2006
EPA U.S. National MARKAL Database
Database Documentation
by
Carol Shay, Joseph DeCarolis, Dan Loughlin, and Cynthia Gage
U.S. EPA Air Pollution Prevention and Control Division
Sonia Yeh and Samudra Vijay
ORISE Post-Doctoral Fellows
Evelyn L. Wright
Formerly with the EPA
EPA Project Officer: Carol L. Shay
Office of Research and Development (ORD)
National Risk Management Research Laboratory (NRMRL)
Air Pollution Prevention and Control Division (APPCD)
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Research and Development
Washingtion, DC 20460
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Abstract
This document describes the database used in EPA's National Model, which is a MARKAL model developed to
aid in technology assessment as part of a larger Air Quality Assessment being performed by EPA's Office of
Research and Development. The MARKAL (MARket ALlocation) model was developed in the late 1970s at
Brookhaven National Laboratory. In 1978, the International Energy Agency adopted MARKAL and created the
Energy Technology and Systems Analysis Program (ETSAP), which is a group of modelers and developers that
meet every six months to discuss model developments, extensions, and applications. MARKAL is a dynamic,
data-driven energy/economic model of a region over atime span of several decades. The economy is modeled as
a system of processes that have material, energy, and monetary flows between them and that represent all activi-
ties necessary to provide products and services for that region. Each process can choose from among a set of
alternate technologies to complete the process, and each technology is characterized quantitatively by energy,
emission, and monetary characteristics. Both the supply and demand sides are integrated, so that one side re-
sponds automatically to changes in the other. The model selects that combination of technologies that minimizes
total energy system cost.
The characteristics and constraints associated with the alternate technologies for each process are put into the
model as a database, which is defined by the user. This document describes that database for the U.S. EPA
MARKAL model. Constraints are determined by the demand for products and services, the maximum introduc-
tion rate of new technologies, the availability of resources, environmental policy goals for energy use and emis-
sions, and so forth. Processes are characterized by their physical inputs and outputs of energy and material, by
their costs, and by their environmental impacts such as emissions of carbon dioxide and oxides of nitrogen and
sulfur.
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Foreword
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is charged by Congress with protecting the Nation's
land, air, and water resources. Under a mandate of national environmental laws, the Agency strives to
formulate and implement actions leading to a compatible balance between human activities and the
ability of natural systems to support and nurture life. To meet this mandate, EPA's research program is
providing data and technical support for solving environmental problems today and building a science
knowledge base necessary to manage our ecological resources wisely, understand how pollutants
affect our health, and prevent or reduce environmental risks in the future.
The National Risk Management Research Laboratory (NRMRL) is the Agency's center for
investigation of technological and management approaches for preventing and reducing risks from
pollution that threaten human health and the environment. The focus of the Laboratory's research
program is on methods and their cost-effectiveness for prevention and control of pollution to air, land,
water, and subsurface resources; protection of water quality in public water systems; remediation of
contaminated sites, sediments and ground water; prevention and control of indoor air pollution; and
restoration of ecosystems. NRMRL collaborates with both public and private sector partners to foster
technologies that reduce the cost of compliance and to anticipate emerging problems. NRMRLs research
provides solutions to environmental problems by: developing and promoting technologies that protect
and improve the environment; advancing scientific and engineering information to support regulatory
and policy decisions; and providing the technical support and information transfer to ensure
implementation of environmental regulations and strategies at the national, state, and community levels.
This publication has been produced as part of the Laboratory's strategic long-term research plan.
It is published and made available by EPA's Office of Research and Development to assist the user
community and to link researchers with their clients.
Sally Gutierrez, Director
National Risk Management Research Laboratory
in
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EPA Review Notice
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency through its Office of Research and Development funded and man-
aged the research described here as an in-house project. It has been subjected to Agency review and has been
approved for publication as an EPA document. Mention of trade names or commercial products does not consti-
tute endorsement or recommendation for use.
This document is available to the public through the National Technical Information Service, Springfield, Vir-
ginia 22161.
IV
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Table of Contents
Section Page
Abstract ii
Foreword iii
EPA Review Notice iv
List of Figures vii
List of Tables viii
Acronyms and Abbreviations xi
1 Introduction 1
2 MARKAL 1
2.1 Description of MARKAL 1
2.2DataNeeds 2
3 The MARKAL EPANMD 4
3.1 The ANSWER Framework and Corresponding Excel Spreadsheets 4
3.2 Software 4
3.3 Developing the EPA's National MARKAL Database 4
3.4 Future Technologies for Scenario Analysis 5
3.5 Detailed Model Descriptions 5
4 MARKAL Naming Conventions 5
4.1 Introduction 5
4.2 Naming Convention Guidelines 5
5 System-Wide Variables 9
5.1 System-Wide Variable Data Sources 9
5.2 System-Wide Parameters 9
6 Energy Carriers 9
6.1 Energy Carrier Data Sources 9
6.2 Energy Carrier Parameters 9
7 Resource Supply 10
7.1 Parameter Definitions 10
7.2 Crude Oil 11
7.3 Imported Refined Products 13
7.4 Natural Gas 14
7.5 Coal 17
7.6 Renewables 19
7.7 Export Technologies 20
8 Process Technologies 20
8.1 Process Technology Parameters 20
8.2 Refineries 21
8.3 Coal Gasification 22
8.4 Other Natural Gas Process Technologies 23
8.5 Coke 24
9 Conversion Technologies 25
9.1 Electricity Generation 25
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Table of Contents (concluded)
Section Page
9.2 Conventional LWR Nuclear Technology 31
10 Demand Technologies and End-Use Demands 34
10.1 Demand Sector Parameters 34
10.2 Residential Sector 35
10.3 Commercial Sector 40
10.4 Transportation Sector 45
10.5 Industrial Sector 52
11 Emissions Data 58
11.1 Emissions from Electricity Generation 58
11.2 Biomass Emissions 62
11.3 Commercial and Residential Emissions 63
11.4 Industrial Emissions 63
11.5 Transportation Emissions 63
12 Hydrogen Use in the Transportation Sector 67
12.1 Hydrogen RES 67
12.2 Hydrogen Production Technologies 67
12.3 Additional Model Configuration 69
13 Model Quality Control Processes 70
13.1 Data Quality 70
13.2 Data Documentation 71
13.3 Peer Review 71
14 Calibration 72
15 References 75
Appendix A: Data Source Characterization 79
Appendix B: Detailed Sector Data 81
Appendix C: Peer Review Comments and Responses 127
VI
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List of Figures
Figure Page
1 Example of a Simple Reference Energy System 2
2 Crude Oil RES in the EPANMD 12
3 Imported GSL, NGL, and LPG RES in the EPANMD 13
4 Imported Fuel Oil (DSH) RES in the EPANMD 13
5 Imported Jet Fuel RES in the EPANMD 14
6 Imported Kerosene RES in the EPANMD 14
7 Imported Petroleum Feedstocks RES in the EPANMD 14
8 Imported Methanol RES in the EPANMD 14
9 Imported Diesel RES in the EPANMD 14
10 Price/Supply Curves for Years 2007, 2010, 2015, 2020, and 2026 from the NANGAS Model 15
11 Cost/Supply Curves Used in the EPANMD 16
12 Natural Gas RES in the EPANMD 16
13 High Sulfur Bituminous Coal RES in the EPANMD 18
14 Biomass Resource RES 19
15 Wind, Solar, Hydro, and Geothermal Resource RES 20
16 Oil and NGA Exports in the RES 20
17 Coal Export RES Example 20
18 Refinery RES 21
19 Coal Gasification RES 23
20 Pipeline Quality NGA RES 24
21 CNGRES 24
22 Methanol from NGA RES 24
23 Coke RES 24
24 Electrical Generation Sector RES 25
25 Imported Electricity Resource Technologies 25
26 Diesel (DSL) to Electric Sector Emissions Accounting RES 29
27 Natural gas (NGA) to Electric Sector Emissions Accounting RES 29
28 Fuel Oil (DSH) to Electric Sector Emissions Accounting RES 30
29 Methanol (MTH) to Electric Sector Emissions Accounting RES 30
30 New Steam Electric Emissions Accounting RES 30
31 Nuclear RES 31
32 Residential Sector RES 36
33 Commercial Sector RES 41
34 Transportation Sector RES 46
35 Transportation "Dummy" Collector Process Technologies 48
36 Industrial Sector RES 53
37 RES for Coal Retrofits 60
38 Hydrogen RES 68
39 Comparison of EPANMD to AEO2002: Sector Specific Energy Use in PJ 73
40 Comparison of EPANMD to AEO2002: System-Wide Coal, Natural Gas, Gasoline,
and Diesel Use in PJ 74
41 Comparison of EPANMD to AEO2002: System-Wide Fuel Oil, Renewables, Liquid
Petroleum Gas, and Nuclear Use inPJ 75
Vll
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List of Tables
Table Page
1 Energy Carriers in the EPANMD 5
2 Resource Technologies in the EPANMD - Examples 8
3 Example Naming Convention for Process, Conversion, and Demand Technologies 8
4 Emissions Commodities in the EPANMD 9
5 Naming Convention for User-Defined Constraints 9
6 QHR(Z)(Y) Values in the EPANMD 9
7 Electricity Specific Energy Carrier Parameters Values in the EPANMD 10
8 Low-Temperature Heat Specific Energy Carrier Parameters Values in the EPANMD 10
9 Data Sources for Domestic Oil in the EPANMD 11
10 Naming Convention for Crude Oil Resource Technologies 11
11 Naming Convention for Crude Oil Energy Carriers 11
12 Naming Convention for Crude Oil "Dummy" Collector Process Technologies 11
13 Petroleum Products in the EPANMD 13
14 Naming Convention for Imported Refined Products Resource Technologies 13
15 Naming Convention for Imported Refined Products Energy Carriers 13
16 Naming Convention for Imported Refined Products "Dummy" Collector Process Technologies 13
17 Natural Gas Supply Domestic Production/Imports Ratios Used in the EPANMD 15
18 Naming Convention for Natural Gas Resource Technologies 15
19 Naming Convention for Natural Gas Energy Carriers 16
20 Naming Convention for Natural Gas "Dummy" Collector Process Technologies 16
21 BOUND(BD)Or for Domestic and Import NGA Supply Curves 17
22 Domestic and Import NGA Supply Costs 17
23 Domestic and Import NGA Supply Constraints 17
24 MARKAL Coal Regions 18
25 Examples of Coal Resource Technologies 18
26 Naming Convention for Coal Resource Technologies 18
27 Naming Convention for Coal Energy Carriers 18
28 Examples of Coal Energy Carriers 18
29 Naming Convention for Coal "Dummy" Collector Process Technologies 18
30 BOUND(BD)Or on Gasoline and NGA Exports 20
31 Coal Export BOUND(BD)Or 20
32 Cost and Availability Parameters for Refinery Types 21
33 Input Energy Carrier INP(ENC)p Values 22
34 Output Energy Carrier OUT(ENC)p Values 22
35 Existing Refinery Residual Capacity and Bound on Capacity, High Conversion Bound on Capacity ... 23
36 Emission factors of Existing Refinery (S28) and High Conversion Refinery (S27) 23
37 Cost and Availability Parameters for Gasification 23
38 Bounds on Gasification Capacity in PJ per Year 24
39 Data Sources for Electric Sector Technologies 25
40 Electricity Conversion Technologies 26
41 Availability Values for Electric Sector Technologies 27
42 Electric Sector Energy Carriers 29
Vlll
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List of Tables (continued)
Table Page
43 Naming Convention for Electric Sector Emissions Tracking 30
44 Residential Sector End-Use Demands 36
45 Residential Sector Demand Values in the EPANMD 36
46 Residential Demand Calculations 36
47 Residential End-Use Technology Naming Convention 37
48 Residential Sector Cost and Efficiency Units 37
49 Residential Sector IBOND Example 38
50 Residential Sector LIFE Values 38
51 Residential Sector Energy Carriers 39
52 Residential Emissions "Dummy" Process Technologies 40
53 Residential Space and Water Heating Fuel Splits 40
54 Residential Space and Water Heating Constraints 40
55 Commercial Sector End-Use Demands 41
56 Commercial Sector Demand Values 41
57 Sample portion of KSDOUT 42
58 Commercial Sector Conversion Factors 42
59 Commercial Sector End-Use Technology Naming Convention 42
60 Commercial Sector IBOND example 43
61 Commercial Sector Energy Carriers 44
62 Commercial Sector Emission "Dummy" Process Technologies 45
63 Commercial Space and Water Heating Fuel Splits 45
64 Commercial Space and Water Heating Constraints 45
65 Transportation Sector End-Use Demands 46
66 Transportation Sector Demands 46
67 Naming Convention for Light Duty Vehicle Demand Technologies 47
68 Naming Convention for Heavy Duty Vehicle Demand Technologies 47
69 Naming Convention for Bus Demand Technologies 47
70 Naming Convention for Air Transport Demand Technologies 48
71 Naming Convention for Shipping Demand Technologies 48
72 Naming Convention for Public Transportation Demand Technologies 48
73 Naming Convention for Rail Demand Technologies 48
74 Transportation Sector Process Technologies 48
75 Transportation IBOND Example 49
76 Transportation Sector Energy Carriers 52
77 Transportation Car Class Percentages 52
78 Industrial Sector End-Use Demands 53
79 Industrial Sector Demand Values in the EPANMD 53
80 Industrial Sector Demand Technologies 54
81 Industrial Sector Demand Tech Energy Needs 54
82 Industrial Sector Naming Convention 54
83 Industrial Sector "Dummy" Process Technologies 55
84 Autoproduction Technologies in the Industrial Sector 55
85 CHP Technologies in Industrial Sector 56
86 Industrial Sector Energy Carriers 58
87 Industrial Emissions "Dummy" Process Technologies 58
88 CO2, PM10, VOC, and NOX Emission Factors from Generating Electricity as Used in the EPANMD ... 59
89 SO2 Emission Factors from Generating Electricity as Used in the EPANMD 59
90 Emission Factors from Coke as Used in the EPANMD 59
91 Emission Factors from Coal Gasification as Used in the EPANMD 59
92 SOX Control Data Summary 62
93 Biomass CO2 Emission Factors in the EPANMD 62
94 Residential Emission Factors in (Ib/MMBtu) used in the EPANMD 63
ix
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List of Tables (concluded)
Table Page
95 Commercial Emission Factors (in Ib/MMBtu) used in the EPANMD 63
96 Industrial CO2 Emission Factors in the EPANMD 63
97 Additional Industrial EPANMD Emission Factors (in Ib/MMBtu) 63
98 Airplane Emission Factors 64
99 Bus Emission Factors 64
100 Passenger Rail Emission Factors 64
101 Shipping Emission Factors 64
102 Heavy Truck Emission Factors 64
103 Light Duty Vehicle Emission Factors 64
104 Hydrogen Production Pathways 68
105 Energy Inputs and Investment Costs for Hydrogen Production Technologies 68
106 Emissions Associated with Hydrogen Production Technologies 69
107 ETL Parameters 69
108 Primary Data Sources Used in Developing the Database 70
109 Sector Peer Reviewers 72
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Acronyms and Abbreviations
Acronym Definition
AEO U.S. Department of Energy's Annual Energy Outlook report
APB Atmospheric Protection Branch
APPCD Air Pollution Prevention and Control Division
Btu British thermal unit
CAIR Clean Air Interstate Rule
CCAR Climate Change Action Report
CCS carbon capture and sequestration
CNG compressed natural gas
DOE U.S. Department of Energy
EE/RE DOE's Energy Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy programs
EIA Energy Information Administration
EPA U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
EPANMD EPA National MARKAL database
EPRI Electric Power Research Institute
ETSAP Energy Technology and Systems Analysis Program
FGD flue gas desulfurization
GHG green house gas
GW gigawatts
IEA International Energy Agency
ICE internal combustion engine
IGCC integrated gasification combined cycle
IHM initial heavy metal (enriched uranium)
IPM EPA's Integrated Planning Model
ISA-W Integrated Strategic Assessment Workgroup
LBL Lawrence Berkley Laboratories
LDC local distribution center
LDV light duty vehicles
LEV low emissions vehicles
LNB low-NOx burners
LPG liquid propane gas
LWR light water reactor
MARKAL MARKet ALlocation model
mpg miles per gallon
NANGAS North American Natural Gas Analysis System
NEI Nuclear Energy Institute
NEMS U.S. EIA's National Energy Modeling System
NESCAUM Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management
NMOCs non-methane organic compounds
NOX oxides of nitrogen
NREL National Renewable Energy Laboratory
NRMRL ORD's National Risk Management Research Laboratory
OECD Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development
XI
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Acronyms and Abbreviations (concluded)
Acronym Definition
ORD U.S. EPA's Office of Research and Development
ORNL Oak Ridge National Laboratories
OTT DOE's Office of Transportation Technologies
PJ petajoules
PJ/a petajoules per annum
PM10 fine particulate matter
QM quality metrics
RES reference energy system
SAGE System for Analysis of Global Energy
SAIC Science Applications International Corporation
SCR selective catalytic reduction
SMR steam methane reforming
SOX oxides of sulfur
SULEV super ultra low emissions vehicles
SUV sports utility vehicle
TAG EPRI's Technological Assessment Guide
ULEV ultra low emissions vehicles
USGCRP U.S. Global Change Research Act
VMT vehicle miles traveled
VOC volatile organic compounds
xn
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EPA U.S. National MARKAL Database
1. Introduction
The purpose of this document is to describe in detail the
U.S. Energy System database developed by the EPA's In-
tegrated Strategic Assessment Workgroup (ISA-W) for use
with the MARKAL model. The ISA-W is part of the Of-
fice of Research and Development (ORD), located in the
National Risk Management Research Laboratory
(NRMRL), Air Pollution Prevention and Control Division's
(APPCD) Atmospheric Protection Branch (APB). The
documentation is designed to help users of the database,
hereafter referred to as the EPA National MARKAL Data-
base (EPANMD). The EPANMD was developed to aid in
technology assessment as part of a larger Air Quality As-
sessment being performed by EPA ORD. For a complete
understanding of the Air Quality Assessment approach see,
"Demonstration of a Scenario Approach for Technology
Assessment: Transportation Sector" (EPA-600/R-04/135,
January 2004).
2. MARKAL
2.1 Description of MARKAL
The MARKAL (MARket ALlocation) model was devel-
oped in the late 1970s at Brookhaven National Laboratory.
In 1978, the International Energy Agency adopted
MARKAL and created the Energy Technology and Sys-
tems Analysis Program (ETSAP), which is a group of
modelers and developers that meet every 6 months to dis-
cuss model developments, extensions, and applications.
MARKAL therefore benefits from an unusually active and
interactive group of users and developers. MARKAL is
currently in use by more than 40 countries for research
and energy planning. For a detailed description of
MARKAL, see the ETSAP MARKAL users manual at
http://www.etsap.org/documentation.asp.
MARKAL is a data-driven, energy systems economic-op-
timization model. The user inputs the structure of the en-
ergy system to be modeled, including resource supplies,
energy conversion technologies, end use demands, and the
technologies used to satisfy these demands. The user must
also provide data to characterize each of the technologies
and resources used, including fixed and variable costs, tech-
nology availability and performance, and pollutant emis-
sions. MARKAL then calculates, using straightforward lin-
ear programming techniques, the least cost way to satisfy
the specified demands, subject to any constraints the user
wishes to impose. Outputs of the model include a determi-
nation of the technological mix at intervals into the future,
estimates of total system cost, energy services (by type
and quantity), estimates of criteria and greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions, and estimates of energy commodity
prices.
The basis of the MARKAL model framework is a network
diagram called a Reference Energy System (RES), which
depicts an energy system from resource to end-use demand
(Figure 1). The RES divides an energy system up into
stages. The four technology stages represented are resource,
process, conversion, and demand technologies. These tech-
nologies feed into a final stage consisting of end-use de-
mands for useful energy services. End-use demands in-
clude items such as residential lighting, commercial space
conditioning, and automobile passenger miles traveled.
Energy carriers interconnect the stages.
The first technology stage, resource technologies, repre-
sents all flows of energy carriers into and out of the energy
system. These include imports and exports, mining and
extraction, and renewable energy resources. The second
technology stage, transformation technologies, is subdi-
vided into two classes: conversion technologies, which
model electricity generation, and process technologies,
which change the form, characteristics, or location of en-
ergy carriers. Process technologies include oil refineries,
hydrogen production technologies, and pipelines. Process
technologies are also used in the model as "dummy" tech-
nologies, where emissions are tracked or resources of vary-
ing qualities are collected. They are referred to as "dummy"
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Resource
Technologies
Process
Technologies
Conversion
Technologies
Demand
Technologies
End-use
Demand
Oil!
Oil2
Oil3
Gas
Gas
Collector
Gas1
Gas2
Emissions
Tracking
Power Plant
Figure 1. Example of a Simple Reference Energy System.
technologies because they are not an actual process with
costs associated with them. The final technology stage,
demand technologies, are those devices that are used to
directly satisfy the final RES stage, end-use service de-
mands. Demand technologies include vehicles, furnaces,
and electrical devices.
Energy carriers are the various forms of energy consumed
and produced in the RES. These can include coal variants
(e.g., with different sulfur contents), crude oil, refined pe-
troleum products, electricity to different grids, and renew-
able energy (e.g., biomass, solar, geothermal, hydro). The
model requires that the total amount of energy produced
be at least as much as that consumed. The inter-connec-
tions between the various technologies in a MARKAL
model are accomplished by energy carriers flowing out of
one or more technologies and into others.
The MARKAL RES concept offers a significant enhance-
ment over single sector energy technology models because
it allows technologies and sectors to interact through the
interconnections in the RES. For example, the residential
air conditioner in the RES above can use either oil or gas.
If it were to switch its fuel usage from heavily oil to heavily
gas, it may shift the relative prices of gas to the industrial,
and transportation sectors, potentially leading to a shift
away from gas for some end uses.
2.2 Data Needs
A MARKAL database uses a variety of data parameters to
describe each element of the Reference Energy System.
The general categories of data required for a MARKAL
model are:
• System-wide global parameters,
• Energy service demands,
• Energy carriers,
• Resource technologies,
• Process and demand technology profiles, and
• Environmental emission factors.
2.2.1 System-Wide Parameters
System-wide, otherwise known as global, parameters are
assumptions that apply to the entire model. Two important
system-wide aspects of the model are:
• Cost discounting - All costs must be entered in the same
monetary unit and discounted to a common year; U.S.
$1995 for the EPANMD, and
• Subdivision of the year into load fractions - MARKAL
subdivides the year into three seasons Z (Z = Summer,
Winter, Intermediate) and two times of day Y (Y =
Day, Night).
2.2.2 Energy Service Demands
Energy service demands describe the requirement for spe-
cific end-use energy services to be delivered to individuals
and the economy. Examples of energy services include resi-
dential lighting, personal automotive transport, and indus-
trial process heat. The demand for an energy service does
not refer to the consumption of a particular energy com-
modity, but rather to the provision of services such as manu-
facturing steel, transportation, lighting offices, and heat-
ing homes. These energy services are measured in units of
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useful energy, which may vary with sector. For example,
in the U.S. model, demand for the majority of transport
services is specified in miles traveled, while the demand
for industrial process energy is specified in petajoules (PJ).
Key demand related data include:
• Projections for useful energy demand services by sec-
tor, and
• The load shape of the demand pattern by season/day-
night (for end use demands that use electricity or low-
temperature heat).
2.2.3 Energy Carriers
Energy carriers are the various forms of energy produced
and consumed in the Reference Energy System depicted
in a MARKAL model. Energy carriers can include fossil
fuels, such as coal with different sulfur content, crude oil
and oil products, electricity to different grids, synthetic fuels
produced by model processes, and renewable energy (e.g.,
biomass, solar, geothermal, hydro). Energy carriers pro-
vide the interconnections between the various technolo-
gies in a MARKAL model by flowing out of one or more
technologies and into others. The model requires that the
total amount of each energy carrier produced is greater than
or equal to the total amount consumed.
Key energy carrier related data include:
• Overall transmission efficiency for all energy carriers,
• For electricity and low-temperature heat -
o Investment and operation and maintenance cost for
transmission and distribution systems, and
o Reserve margin, or amount of installed capacity
above the highest average annual demand.
2.2.4 Resource Technologies
Resource technologies are the entry points for raw fuels
into and out of the energy system and include imports and
exports, mining and extraction, and renewable energy.
These technologies are generally characterized using
stepwise supply curves that indicate how much of a re-
source can be obtained at a given price during each model
period. In the EPANMD, imported electricity is modeled
using a three-step curve, while the mining of various grades
of coal is represented using eight-step curves.
Key resource technology data include:
• Bounds indicating the size of each step on each re-
source supply curve. (These bounds might arise for
technical reasons, such as a limitation on the amount
of oil that can be produced from a particular reservoir
in a given year, or for economic reasons),
• A corresponding resource supply cost for each supply
step, and
• Cumulative resources limits indicating the total amount
of a resource at a particular supply step that can be
delivered over the entire modeling horizon (e.g., total
proven size of a petroleum reservoir).
2.2.5 Process and Demand Technologies
Process technologies are those that change the form, char-
acteristics, or location of energy carriers. Examples of pro-
cess technologies in the U.S. model include oil refineries and
hydrogen production technologies. A sub-category of the
process technologies is the conversion technologies, which
model electricity and low-temperature heat production.
Demand technologies are those devices that are used to
directly satisfy end-use service demands, including vehicles,
furnaces, and electrical devices. These technologies are
characterized using parameters that describe technology
costs, fuel consumption and efficiency, and availability.
Key process and demand technology data include:
• Technology costs-
O The cost of investing in new capacity,
o Fixed operating and maintenance (O&M) costs for
installed capacity,
o Variable O&M costs according to the operation of
installed capacity, and
O Fuel delivery costs corresponding to any sectoral
difference in the price of an energy carrier;
• Energy carriers into and out of each technology;
• The technical efficiency (usually defined as the ratio
between the sum of energy carrier or useful energy
service outputs to the sum of energy carrier inputs);
• The model year in which the technology first becomes
available for investment;
• Availability factors (for process technologies) and ca-
pacity utilization factors (for demand technologies) that
describe the maximum percent annual (or season/day-
night) availability for operation or a fixed percent an-
nual (or season/day-night) capacity utilization per unit
of installed capacity;
• The current existing installed capacity;
• Limits on capacity in the form of incremental new in-
vestment (absolute or growth rate) or total installed
capacity. Such bounds may be set for economic, tech-
nical, behavioral, or other reasons; and
• "Hurdle" rates, or technology specific discount rates,
that can be used to represent non-economic, behav-
ioral aspects of investment choices (e.g., consumer
preferences, expectation of very rapid rates of return,
or information gaps). Often the "real world" does not
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make decisions based strictly upon the least-cost per-
spective that MARKAL uses. These impediments to
the market can be represented to MARKAL as tech-
nology-specific discount rates, higher than the
systemwide discount rate, for such technologies.
2.2.6 Environmental Emissions
MARKAL has the capacity to track the production of emis-
sions according to the activity, installed capacity, or new
investment in capacity of a resource or technology. In the
EPANMD this capacity is used to track emissions such as
carbon, NOX, sulfur, VOCs, and particulates. The EPANMD
tracks these emissions by sector.
Key environmental variable related data (expressed in terms
of pollutant emissions) include:
• Emissions per unit of technology activity, installed ca-
pacity, or new investment.
• Emission constraints, which can take the form of a cap
on total emissions in a year, or a cumulative cap on
emissions over the entire modeling horizon.
3. The MARKAL EPANMD
3.1 The ANSWER Framework and Corre-
sponding Excel Spreadsheets
The EPANMD was developed using the ANSWER frame-
work. ANSWER is a Windows interface to MARKAL de-
veloped using MS Visual Basic, MS Access, MS Excel,
and requiring the GAMS mathematical modeling language
software. For a complete description of ANSWER see,
"ANSWER MARKAL, An Energy Optimization Tool ver-
sion 5" (available from Ken Noble of Nobel-Soft
noblesoft@netspeed.com.au). All data for the EPANMD
was organized and transformed from raw data to
MARKAL-ready data in Excel spreadsheets that are avail-
able along with the database.
3.2 Software
All results referenced in this document were based on:
• ANSWER version 5.5.3
• GAMS version 21.3, and
• EPANMD version 1.0
3.3 Developing the EPA's National MARKAL
Database
The goal for the development of the national model was to
focus on five key sectors: transportation, commercial, resi-
dential, industrial, and electricity generation.
The database was initially based on a MARKAL database
produced in 1997 by Brookhaven National Laboratory for
the U.S. Department of Energy (hereafter referred to as the
"1997 DOE MARKAL database"). Overtime, all sectors
have been thoroughly revised and updated, although the
original values were maintained for several technologies
that were outside this study's focus areas. Wherever pos-
sible, the data for updating the database was drawn from
DOE's Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) and the input data
to the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), which
is used to produce the AEO.
AEO data were selected for the RES because it is a nation-
ally recognized source of technology data and widely used
where reference or default data are required. It presents
mid-term forecasts of energy prices, supply, and demand.
The projections are based on results from NEMS and take
into account federal, state, and local laws and regulations
in effect at the time of the model run.
Where AEO data were not available in a form appropriate
to the MARKAL needs, data were derived from other
widely recognized authoritative sources:
• In the transportation sector, personal vehicle technol-
ogy data were drawn from the U.S. Department of
Energy (DOE) Office of Transportation Technologies
(OTT) Quality Metrics assessment. Quality Metrics
(QM) describes the analytical process used in estimat-
ing future energy, environmental, and economic ben-
efits of U.S. DOE Energy Efficiency and Renewable
Energy (EE/RE) programs. Two additional vehicle
technology characterizations were derived from the
report by DeCicco et al., 2001;
• Data for the electricity sector were drawn from NEMS
with supplemental data pulled from the Electric Power
Research Institute (EPRI) Technical Assessment Guide
(TAG). The TAG is a standard reference work for the
energy industry that characterizes key electric genera-
tion technologies and their operation, costs, environ-
mental impacts, and so forth.
The database is divided into five year time periods. The
current database runs from 1995 to 2035. Subsequent up-
dates will drop historical time periods such as 1995 and
2000, and extend the time horizon out to 2055.
As each sector of the model was completed, data charac-
terizing the associated technologies was peer-reviewed by
sector experts for appropriateness of the data source, com-
pleteness of the technology options, and correctness of the
methodology in converting the data from the original source
to MARKAL inputs.
-------
After assembling a complete representation of the energy
system, the model was calibrated against the AEO 2002
report and peer reviewed by US Energy System experts
with MARKAL experience. The goals of the calibration
and peer review were to: (i) ensure that the model was
producing reasonable results, given its input assumptions,
(ii) determine whether the model was providing a plau-
sible, consistent representation of the key features of the
U.S. energy system, (iii) be able to identify why differ-
ences exist in cases where our results differ from AEO re-
sults, and (iv) identify any significant errors in the con-
struction or characterization of the RES. It should be noted
that an exact calibration of MARKAL to the AEO is not
practical or desirable since the models are very different in
structure and purpose.
3.4 Future Technologies for Scenario Analy-
sis
In order to evaluate various technological pathways to 2050,
future technologies for the transportation and energy pro-
duction sectors will be added to the EPANMD database
overtime. Specific technologies in the transportation sec-
tor include biofuels and hydrogen fuel. Specific technolo-
gies in the electricity production sector are still being de-
veloped. Technology characterizations will be added or
updated as deemed necessary.
3.5 Detailed Model Descriptions
The remaining pages of this document give a detailed de-
scription of the data in the EPANMD and the calibration
steps the model went through to verify its accuracy. It is
divided into twelve sections: naming conventions (section
4), system-wide parameters (section 5), energy carriers (sec-
tion 6), resource supply technologies (section 7), process
technologies (section 8), conversion technologies (section
9), demand technologies and end-use demands (section 10),
emissions accounting (section 11), the hydrogen sector (sec-
tion 12), model quality control processes (section 13),
model calibration (section 14), and preliminary model re-
sults (section 15).
Appendix B at the end of the report is detailed data for
each sector.
4. MARKAL Naming Conventions
4.1 Introduction
Naming conventions help the user to organize the infor-
mation and to have some idea where in the RES a particu-
lar component belongs.
4.2 Naming Convention Guidelines
The naming convention guidelines are laid out below by
sector.
4.2.1 Energy Carrier and Material Commodity
Names
Energy carriers are named with up to 10 characters such
that:
• The first one to five characters signifying the energy
type,
• The remaining characters added on to specify the pro-
cess it is coming from or going to,
• Energy carriers used in the Industrial Sector are an ex-
ception to these guidelines, starting with T for Indus-
trial and followed by letters that specify the process
type and the industrial sub-sector.
The list of energy carriers in the EPANMD is provided in
Table 1.
Table 1. Energy Carriers in the EPANMD.
Item
Description
BIOHC-0 Herbaceous crops from all sources to all end uses
BIOWD-0 Wood to all purposes
BMSWX-0 Municipal solid waste (X added for MTHa)
CABHS High sulfur bituminous coal from App.b, surface
CABHU High sulfur bituminous coal from App., undergrd.
CABLS Low sulfur bituminous coal from App.,, surface
CABLU Low sulfur bituminous coal from App., undergrd.
CABMS Med. sulfur bituminous coal from App., surface
CABMU Med. sulfur bituminous coal from App., undergrd.
CAGHS High sulfur gob pile coal from App.
CALMS Med. sulfur, lignite coal from App., surface
CAMLU Low sulfur, metallurgical coal from App., underrd.
CAMMU Med.sulfur, metallurgical coal from App., underrd.
CCFP All coal to coal-fired power
CDLMS Med.sulfur, lignite coal, from Dakota surface
CGLHS High sulfur, lignite coal from Gulf Coast, surface
CGLMS Med. sulfur, lignite coal from Gulf Coast, surface
CIBHS High sulfur, bit. coal from Interior, surface
CIBHU High sulfur, bit. coal from Interior, undergrd.
CIBMS Med. sulfur, bit. coal from Interior, surface
CIBMU Med. sulfur, bit. coal from Interior, undergrd.
CMET Metallurgical coal to coking
CMETIMP-0 Imported Metallurgical coal to coking
CNG Compressed natural gas
CNGTH CNG to trucks
CNGTL CNG to light duty vehicles
CNGX Fuel for CNG-gasoline bifuel vehicles
CNSMS Med. sulfur, sub-bit, coal from NW, surface
COACFP Coal to coal-fired power
COACFPR Coal to coal-fired power - repowered
COAEAFB Coal to atmospheric fluidized bed
COAEIGC Coal directly to IGCCC
COAEMCFC Coal to molten carbide fuel cells
COAEPFB Coal to pressurized fluidized bed
continued
-------
Table 1 (continued). Energy Carriers in the EPANMD.
Table 1 (continued). Energy Carriers in the EPANMD.
Item
Description
Item
Description
COAGASH
COAGASIS
COAGASM
COAI
COAIEA
COALBH-0
COALBL-0
COALBM-0
COALEX
COALLH-0
COALLL-0
COALLM-0
COALML-0
COALMM-0
COALS L-0
COALSM-0
COKE
COKEIMP-0
CPBLU
CPSLS
CPSMS
CRBLU
CRSLS
CSBLS
CSSMS
CSTMBHE1
CSTMBITE
CSTMBITE2
CSTMBITE3
CSTMBLE1
CSTMBME1
CSTMLHE1
CSTMLIGE
CSTMLIGE2
CSTMLIGE3
CSTMLLE1
CSTMLME1
CSTMSLE1
CSTMSME1
CSTMSUBE
CSTMSUBE2
CSTMSUBE3
DHO-0
DIG
DSH
DSHCEA
DSHEEA
DSHEEAN
DSHEEAS
DSHH-0
DSHIEA
DSHL-0
DSHT
DSL
DSLCEA
DSLEEA
Coal to high Btu gasification
Coal to in-stu coal gasification
Coal (med Btu) to coal gasification
Coal to industry prior to emissions accounting
Coal to entire industrial sector after emis. acctng.
Coal: bit. high sulfur (>1.67 Ib mrnBtu")
Coal: bit. low sulfur (0.4 - 0.8 Ib mmBtu)
Coal: bit. medium sulfur (0.8 -1.67 Ib mmBtu)
All types of coal to export
Coal: lignite high sulfur (>1.67 Ib mmBtu)
Coal: lignite low sulfur (0.6 - 0.8 Ib mmBtu)
Coal: lignite medium sulfur (0.8 -1.67 Ib mmBtu)
Coal: metallurgical low sulfur (<0.6 Ib mmBtu)
Coal: metallurgical med sulfur (>0.6 Ibs mmBtu)
Coal: sub bit. low sulfur (<0.4 Ibs mmBtu)
Coal: sub bit. med sulfur (>0.4 Ibs mmBtu)
Coke input into industrial applications
Coke input into industrial applications
Low sulfur, bit. coal from PRBe, undergrd.
Low sulfur, sub-bit, coal from PRB, surface
Med. sulfur, sub-bit, coal from PRB, surface
Low sulfur, bit. coal, Rocky Mtns., undergrd.
Low sulfur, sub-bit, coal, Rocky Mtns., surface
Low sulfur, bit. coal from Southwest, surface
Med. sulfur, sub-bit, coal from Southwest, surface
HSf bit. coal to stm. elec. prior to SOx9 controls
Bit coal to existing steam electric
Bit. coal to stm elec. prior to NOxh control options
Bit. coal between LNB1 and SCR/SNCRi retrofits for
NOx control
LSk bit coal to stm. elec. prior to SOx controls
MS1 bit coal to stm. elec. prior to SOx controls
HS lignite to stm. elec. prior to SOx controls
Lignite to existing steam electric
Lignite to stm. elec prior to NOx control options
Lignite to stm. elec. between LNB and SCR/SCNR for
NOx control
LS lignite to stm. elec. prior to SOx controls
MS lignite to stm. elec prior to SOx controls
LS sub-bit, to stm. elec. prior to SOx controls
MS sub-bit, to stm. elec. prior to SOx controls
Sub-bit, coal to existing steam electric
Sub-bit, to stm. elec. prior to NOx control options
Sub-bit, to stm. elec. between LNB and SCR/SNCR for
NOx control
Diesel, heating oil
DUMMY LIQUID FUEL-HIGH
All sources of heavy distillate
Fuel oil to commercial sector after emis. acctg.
Emissions: fuel oil to electricity generation
Fuel oil to steam electric after NOx emissions
Fuel oil to steam electric after SOx emissions
Imported high sulfur fuel oil
Emissions: fuel oil to the industrial sector
Imported low sulfur fuel oil
Fuel oil (bunker fuel) for shipping
All sources of diesel fuel and heating oil
Diesel after emissions acctg. for commercial uses
Diesel to the electricity generation
continued
DSLEPN
DSLIEA
DSLL-0
DSLREA
DSLT
DSLTH2
DSLU-0
E85
ELC
ELCPVH2
ELCWTH2
ETH
ETHTL
ETHX
FEQ
GEOTHM-0
GSL
GSLIEA
GSLIMP-0
GSLRNGL
GSLT
HYDRO-0
HYDROGEN
IECH
IEIS
IELP
IENF
IENM
IEOI
IFCH
IFIS
IMCH
IMIS
IMLP
IMNF
IMNM
IMOI
INDBFG
INDBIO
INDCOA
INDCOK
INDELC
INDETH
INDHET
INDHFO
INDHYD
INDLPG
INDNAP
INDNGA
INDNUC
INDOIL
INDPTC
INDSOL
INDWIN
IOCH
IOIS
IOLP
IONF
Diesel to the electricity generation before EAm
Diesel after NOx emis. contrls. for industrial use
Imported low sulfur highway diesel
Diesel to residential after emissions
Transportation diesel
Transportation diesel for H2 transport
Imported ultralow sulfur highway diesel
E85 fuel
Electricity to all purposes
Electricity from PVn to H2 production
Electricity from wind to H2 production
Ethanol for all purposes
Ethanol to transport
Fuel for E85-gasoline flex vehicles
Fossil equivalent
Geothermal energy to all end uses
Gasoline to all end uses
Gasoline to industrial sector
Imported gasoline
Gasoline from refineries and NG° liquids
Gasoline to all transport
Hydroelectric for electricity generation
Hydrogen to the transportation sector
Industrial electro-chemical process chemicals
Industrial electro-chemical process iron and steel
Industrial electro-chemical process pulp and paper
Industrial electro-chemical process non-ferrous metal
Industrial electro-chemical process non-metals
Industrial electro-chemical process other industry
Industrial iron and steel feedstock
Industrial machine drive chemicals
Industrial machine drive iron and steel
Industrial machine drive pulp and paper
Industrial machine drive non-ferrous metals
Industrial machine drive non-metals
Industrial machine drive other industry
Blast Furnace Gas (IN D")
Biofuels (IND)
Coal (IND)
Ovencoke (IND)
Electricity (IND)
Ethane (IND)
Heat (IND)
Heavy fuel oil (IND)
Hydro (IND)
Liquified petroleum gases (IND)
Naphtha (IND)
Natural gas mix (IND)
Nuclear (IND)
Refined petroleum products (IND)
Petroleum coke (IND)
Solar (IND)
Wind (IND)
Industrial other chemicals
Industrial Other Iron and Steel
Industrial other pulp and paper
Industrial other non-ferrous metals
continued
-------
Table 1 (continued). Energy Carriers in the EPANMD.
Table 1 (concluded). Energy Carriers in the EPANMD.
Item
Description
Item
IONM Industrial other non-metals
IOOI Industrial other all other industry
IPCH Industrial process heat chemicals
IPIS Industrial process heat iron and steel
IPLP Industrial process heat pulp and paper
IPNF Industrial process heat non-ferrous metals
IPNM Industrial process heat non-metals
IPOI Industrial process heat other industry
ISCH Industrial steam chemicals
ISIS Industrial steam iron and steel
ISLP Industrial steam pulp and paper
ISNF Industrial steam non-ferrous metals
ISNM Industrial steam non-metals
ISOI Industrial steam other industry
JTF Jet fuel from all sources to all end uses
JTFIMP-0 Imported jet fuel
KER Kerosene from all sources to all end uses
KERIMP-0 Imported kerosene
KERREA Kerosene to residential after emissions
LPG Liquid petroleum gas from all sources
LPGCEA LPG' to commercial sector after emissions acctng.
LPGIEA LPG to industrial sector after emissions acctng.
LPGIMP-0 Imported LPG
LPGREA LPG to residential after emissions
LPGT LPG to transportation
LPGX Fuel for LPG-gasoline bifuel vehicles
LTH Low-temperature heat
M95 M95 fuel
MTH Methanol for all purposes
MTHE Methanol to electricity generation
MTHIMP-0 Imported methanol
MTHT Methanol to transportation
MTHX Fuel for M95-gasoline flex vehicles
NEMISC Miscellaneous petroleum products
NGA Natural gas from all sources
NGACEA Pipeline gas to commercial sec. after acctng. for emis.
NGACLDC Pipeline gas to commercial sector through LDCS
NGAEEA Nat. gas to electricity generation after emis. actng.
NGAENSTM Nat gas to non-steam electricity generation
NGAESTM Nat gas to electricity sector
NGAIEA Nat. gas to industrial sector after emissions actg.
NGAIEA_N Nat. gas to industrial sector no emissions actg.
NGAIEAZ NGA to industrial after emissions actg. - surrogate
NGAILDC Natural gas to industry sector through LDCs
NGAIMP-0 Imported NGA
NGAMIN-0 Mined NGA
NGAREA NGA to residential after emissions
NGARLDC NGA to residential through LDC
NGL Natural Gas Liquids from all sources
NGLIMP-0 Imported NGL
NGLMIN-0 Mined NGL
NGPQ Pipeline quality gas
NUCFUEL Dummy nuclear fuel technology
OIL Crude oil from all sources
OILHH Imported crude oil high sulfur, heavy gravity
OILHL Imported crude oil, high sulfur, low gravity
OILHV Imp. crude oil, high sulfur, very high gravity
OILIMP-0 Imported crude oil
OILLL Imported crude oil, low sulfur, low gravity
continued
Description
Imported crude oil, medium sulfur, heavy gravity
Crude oil from domestic sources
Hydrocarbon petrochemical feedstocks
OILMH
OILMIN-0
PFDST
PFDSTIMP-0 Imported PFDST
RCC Residential conservation, cooling
RCH Residential conservation, heating
SOLAR-0 Solar energy to all sources
WIN-0 Wind to all end uses
a MTH = methanol
b App. = Appalachia
c IGCC = integrated gasification combined cycle
b mmBtu = M Btu
o PRB = Powder River Basin
f HS = high sulfur
9 SOx = oxides of sulfur
h NOx = oxides of nitrogen
' LNB = low NOx burners
' SCR/SNCR = selective catalytic reduction/selective noncatalytic
reduction
k LS = low sulfur
' MS = medium sulfur
m EA = emissions accounting
n PV = photovoltaic
0 NG = natural gas
p IFCH = industrial chemical feedstock
q IND = industrial
' LPG = liquid petroleum gas
s LDC = local distribution center
4.2.2 Resource Technologies
Resource technologies are given an up to 10 character name
such that:
• The 1st three characters of the name should use the
pre-defined prefixes of—
O MIN - domestic extraction of conventional re-
sources (e.g., coal mining, oil/gas wells),
O IMP-imports of energy and materials,
O EXP-exports of energy and materials,
O RNW - renewable energy carriers with physical lim-
its (e.g., municipal solid waste, biomass), and
O STK - stockpiling of energy and materials between
periods (e.g., nuclear fuel);
• The next up to six (6) characters should specify the
name of the commodity produced and correspond to
the name of the energy carrier output by the resource;
• The final character should correspond to a price step.
Examples of Resource Technologies are in Table 2.
Table 2. Resource Technologies in the EPANMD -
Examples.
Item
Description
MINCABHS1 Coal-App.a, bit., high sulfur, surface, Stp 1
MINCABLS8 Coal-App., bitum., low sulfur, surface, Stp 8
MINCABMU5 Coal—App., bit., med. sulfur, undergrnd, Stp 5
MINCIBHU1 Coal-Interior, bit., high sul., undergrd, Stp 1
continued
-------
Table 2 (concluded). Resource Technologies in the
EPANMD - Examples.
Item Description
MINNGA1 Domestic dry natural gas- Step 1
MINNGA2 Domestic dry natural gas- Step 2
MINNGA3 Domestic dry natural gas- Step 3
MINOIL1 Domestic crude oil -Lower 48-Step1
MINOIL2 Domestic crude oil -Lower 48-Step2
MINOIL3 Domestic crude oil -Lower 48-Step3
IMPCOKE1 IMPORT COKE
IMPDSHH1 Imported high sulfurfuel oil-Step 1
IMPDSHL3 Imported low sulfur fuel oil—Step 3
IMPDSLL1 Imported low sulfur diesel—Step 1
IMPDSLU3 Imported ultra-low sulfur diesel—Step 3
IMPELC1 IMPORT ELECTRICITY 1
IMPGSL2 Imported reform, and conventional gasoline—Step 2
IMPKER1 Imported kerosene and other refined prod.—Step 1
IMPNGA1 Imported natural gas- Stepl
IMPOILHH2 Imported oil—high sulfur, heavy gravity—Step 2
IMPOILHH3 Imported oil—high sulfur, heavy gravity—Step 3
IMPOILHL3 Imported oil—high sulfur, low gravity—Step 3
IMPOILHV1 Imported oil—high sulfur, very high grav—Step 1
IMPPFDST1 Imported petroleum feedstocks—Step 1
RNWBIOHC1 HERBACEOUS ENERGY CROPS
RNWBIOWDA AEO95 BIOMASS SUPPLY CURVE 1
RNWBIOWDF AEO95 BIOMASS SUPPLY CURVE 6
RNWGEOTHM Geothermal renewable resources
RNWHYDRO Hydro renewable resources
RNWSOLAR SOLAR renewable resources
RNWWIN WIND renewable resources
a App. = Appalachia
4.2.3 Process, Conversion, and Demand Technol-
ogy Names
The following naming conventions are defined to help fur-
ther organize the RES and to allow the user to quickly
determine the general function of a process from the tech-
nology name:
• P (transformation) = Processes that transform an en-
ergy or material through a physical, chemical or other
type operation,
• SC (collector) = Processes that collect energy carriers
or materials from multiple sources to provide a single
supply to downstream technologies. Such processes
are called "dummy" processes, and their main pur-
pose is to change the names of like commodities.
Therefore, they usually have no associated price or
technical implications,
• SE (emission accounting) = Processes that are used to
characterize the emissions from a particular energy
carrier stream,
• E (electricity and coupled production) = Conversion
plants that produce electricity, and possibly heat, and
• H (heat production) = Conversion plants that produce
only heat.
The naming convention for process, conversion, and de-
mand technologies is summarized in Table 3.
Table 3. Example Naming Convention for Process, Conversion, and Demand Technologies.
Technologies
Designators for Character Sectors
1st Character
2nd to 4th
Characters
Next 2-4 Characters
Last 2-4 Characters
Process Transformation P for processes that
Technologies transform energy or
material
Collection S for other supply step
processes
Emissions S for other supply step
Accounting processes
3 character 2 or 3 character abbreviation for output
name for input energy carrier or next process
energy carrier
C for collector 3 character name for input energy carrier
E for emission 3 character name for energy carrier
accounting
Conversion
Technologies
E for electric power plants
(including CHP) and
1 to 3 character
designator taken
from the primary
H for district heating plants energy carrier
(no electric output) name
Demand
Technologies
C, I, R, T 1 character sub-
(The 1st character of the 3 sector descriptor
character designator for the(e.g., space
MARKAL demand sector) cooling, C; or
water heating,
W)
1 to 4 character user-chosen descriptor
(e.g., IGC for Integrated Gasification
Combined cycle power plants, AFB for
Atmospheric Fluidized Bed power plants)
or
2 character designator used to order the
list of conversion technologies that use
the particular commodity
2 or 3 character descriptor for the
demand technology
or
2 character designator used to order the
list of demand technologies that service
the particular demand
2 character vintage
corresponds to the year in
which the technology is
first available (e.g., 00 for
2000)
2 or 3 character descriptor
for the output energy type
2 or 3 character descriptor
for the output energy
use/sector
2 character vintage
corresponding to the year
in which the technology is
first available (e.g., 00 for
2000, 05 for 2005, etc.)
2 character vintage
corresponding to the year
in which the technology is
first available (00 for
2000, 05 for 2005, etc.)
-------
4.2.4 Emission Names
The names for emission commodities in a MARKAL model
generally consist of one to three characters describing the
emissions type, with additional characters added for sectoral
breakdowns, as listed in Table 4.
Table 4. Emissions Commodities in the EPANMD.
Item
Description
CARBON System-wide carbon emissions
C_RES Carbon emissions : Resource Technologies
COC Carbon emissions : Commercial Sector
COE Carbon emissions : Electric Sector
COO Carbon emissions : Other
COR Carbon emissions : Residential Sector
COT Carbon emissions : Transportation Sector
INDCH4N Industrial methane emissions
INDCO2N Industrial CO2 emissions
INDN2ON Industrial N2O emissions
NOE NOx emissions: Electric Sector
NOI NOx emissions: Industrial Sector
NOR NOx emissions: Residential Sector
NOT NOx emissions: Transportation Sector
SULFUR System-wide sulfur emissions
SOE Sulfur emissions: Electric Sector
SOI Sulfur emissions: Industrial Sector
SOR Sulfur emissions: Residential Sector
SOT Sulfur emissions: Transportation Sector
P10 System-wide PM10 emissions
VOC System-wide VOC emissions
4.2.5 User-Defined Constraints
User-defined constraints are usually introduced to reflect
considerations beyond the scope of the model and to avoid
abrupt, unrealistic changes overtime. Such constraints may
be defined to control the investment, capacity or operation
of a set of processes in absolute (noted A_*) terms (e.g.,
capacity of all nuclear plants) or as a share (noted S_*) of
a larger set (e.g., percent of total electricity that must come
from renewable sources). Table 5 describes the naming
convention typically used in the EPANMD for user de-
fined constraints.
5. System-Wide Variables
As previously stated, system-wide parameters are assump-
tions that apply to the entire model.
Table 5. Naming Convention for User-Defined Constraints.
5.1 System-Wide Variable Data Sources
Data were taken from the 1997 DOE MARKAL database.
5.2 System-Wide Parameters
DISCOUNT: Specifies the long-term annual discount rate
for the economy as a whole. For the EPANMD the dis-
count rate is 5%.
QHR(Z)(Y): Specifies the fraction of the year by season
(Z) and time-of-day (Y) that best describes the electrical
load through the typical year.
Table 6. QHR(Z)(Y) Values in the EPANMD.
Item Description Value
ID
IN
SD
SN-
WD
WN
Intermediated day
Intermediate night
Summer day
Summer night
Winter day
Winter night
0.25
0.25
0.125
0.125
0.125
0.125
6. Energy Carriers
As previously stated, energy carriers provide the intercon-
nections between the various technologies in a MARKAL
model by flowing out of one or more technologies and into
others. For a complete list of energy carriers in the
EPANMD, see Table 1.
6.1 Energy Carrier Data Sources
Data were taken from the 1997 DOE MARKAL database.
6.2 Energy Carrier Parameters
TE(ENT): Specifies the average transmission and distri-
bution efficiency of each energy carrier in each specified
period. With the exception of electricity, the transmission
efficiencies of all energy carriers in the model is 100%.
Due to losses during transmission, the transmission effi-
ciency of electricity in the model is 93.5%.
6.2.1 Electricity Only Parameters
There are a series of parameters that apply only to electric-
ity, covering the cost of distribution and transmission of
User-Defined
Constraint
Designators for Character Sectors
1st and 2nd
Character
3rd to 5th Characters
6th up to 8th Characters
Last 2 Characters
Absolute
Share
1 to 3 character descriptor
corresponding to the energy
carrier involved, or the demand
sub-sector(s)
2 to 5 character descriptor for the
constraint or commodityAechnology
involved
2 character vintage corresponding to
the year in which the constraint is
applied (if applicable) (e.g., 00 for
2000, 05 for 2005, etc.)
-------
electricity as well as the base load and reserve capacity.
The parameters and their values in the EPANMD are listed
in Table 7.
Table 7. Electricity Specific Energy Carrier Parameters
Values in the EPANMD.
Item
(E)DISTINV
(E)DISTOM
(E)LCFEQ
(E)RESERVE
(E)TRANINV
(E)TRANOM
BAS(E)LOAD
$
$
3
0,
0,
Value
496 million per GW
0.736 per PJ
.125
.2
228.75 million per GW
0.1 million per PJ
.95
(E)DISTINV: Specifies the investment cost for the distri-
bution systems constructed for all electricity conversion
technologies, including labor costs, material costs, and
equipment costs. It is measured as the average annual in-
vestment cost per unit of additional conversion capacity.
(E)DISTOM: Specifies the distribution system operating
and maintenance costs for all electricity conversion tech-
nologies. It is measured as the average annual O&M cost
per unit of conversion production.
(E)LCFEQ: Specifies the fossil fuel equivalent of any im-
ported or exported electricity and is measured from the
conversion efficiency of a standard fossil fueled power
plant.
(E)RESERVE: Specifies the Reserve Capacity Fraction,
which is equal to the reserve capacity (the amount by which
the installed electricity generation capacity exceeds the
average load of the season and time-of-day division of peak
demand) divided by the capacity required to meet the av-
erage load of the season/time-of-day of peak load.
(E)TRANINV: Specifies the investment cost for the trans-
mission systems for centralized electricity conversion tech-
nologies, including labor costs, material costs, and equip-
ment costs. It is measured as the average annual invest-
ment cost per unit of additional conversion capacity.
(E)TRANOM: Specifies the transmission system operat-
ing and maintenance costs for centralized electricity con-
version technologies. It is measured as the average annual
O&M cost per unit of conversion production.
BAS(E)LOAD: Specifies the baseload capacity of the elec-
tricity generation system as a fraction of the total night
production of electricity.
6.2.2 Low-Temperature Heat Only Parameters
There are a series of parameters that cover the cost of dis-
tribution and the distribution efficiency that apply only to
the low-temperature heat produced by electricity co-gen-
eration technologies. The parameters and their values in
the EPANMD are listed in Table 8.
Table 8. Low-Temperature Heat Specific Energy Carrier
Parameters Values in the EPANMD.
Item
HRESERVE
DTRANINV
DTRANOM
DHDE(Z)
Value
0.5
$228.75 million per GW
$0.736 million per PJ
92% for each of the seasons
HRESERVE: Specifies the reserve capacity fraction,
which is equal to the reserve capacity (the amount by which
the installed low-temperature heat production capacity ex-
ceeds the average load of the season and time-of-day divi-
sion of peak demand) divided by the capacity required to
meet the average load of the season/time-of-day of peak
load.
DTRANINV: Specifies the investment cost for the trans-
mission systems for centralized low-temperature heat con-
version technologies, including labor costs, material costs,
and equipment costs. It is measured as the average annual
investment cost per unit of additional conversion capacity.
DTRANOM: Specifies the transmission system operat-
ing and maintenance costs for centralized low-temperature
heat conversion technologies. It is measured as the aver-
age annual O&M cost per unit of conversion production.
DHDE(Z): Specifies the distribution efficiency for low-
temperature heat in each season: intermediate, summer, and
winter.
7. Resource Supply
There are six major energy resource categories represented
in the model: Crude Oil, Imported Refined Products, Natu-
ral Gas, Coal, Nuclear Power, and Renewables. MARKAL
characterizes the resource supplies for each of these using
a series of stepped supply curves.
7.1 Parameters Definitions
BOUND(BD)Or: Specifies the maximum additional an-
nual production or availability of a resource at each step
cost and is expressed in units of the energy carrier.
COST: Specifies the cost at which each step's quantity is
available to the model.
10
-------
CUM: Specifies a limit on the total availability of a re-
source from its source to the energy system over the entire
model time horizon.
START: Specifies the first time period of availability.
7.2 Crude Oil
Both imported and domestic crude oil are represented in
the model. For imported oil, there are five crude grades,
each of which have three steps characterized in each model
year by a cost and the amount that is available to the model
at that cost. The domestic oil is characterized by two do-
mestic oil supply curves: one for the lower 48 states and
one for Alaska. Again, each have three steps characterized
in each model year by a cost and the additional amount
that is available to the model at that cost. All oil feeds di-
rectly into the three refineries characterized in MARKAL.
A detailed description of refineries is given in Section 8.2.
7.2.1 Crude Oil Data Sources
Original data for imported crude oil was taken from the
AEO2002 Reference Supply Curves for Imported Crude
Oil provided by Han-Lin Lee of EIA. These curves supply
data for MARKAL years 1995 through 2020. For the years
after 2020, the values were linearly extrapolated.
Original data for domestic oil were obtained from the 1996,
1999, and 2002 Annual Energy Outlooks. The specific
AEO tables from which the data was gathered is outlined
in Table 9.
Table 9. Data Sources for Domestic Oil in the EPANMD.
Table 10. Naming Convention for Crude Oil Resource
Technologies.
Character number
Technology type) Resource type step Description
M P 0
1 1 1
M
N
L 1 Imported, step 1 (S1)
2 Imported, step 2 (S2)
3 Imported, step 3 (S3)
1 mined, lower 48, S1
2 mined, lower 48, S2
3 mined, lower 48, S3
A mined, Alaska, S1
B mined, Alaska, S2
C mined, Alaska, S3
Table 11. Naming Convention for Crude Oil Energy
Carriers.
Character number
Resource type) Crude grade
Description
o
\
\
L H
i \
H
L
M
H
H
L
L
H
V
HSa, heavy gravity
HS, low gravity
LSb, low gravity
MSC, heavy gravity
HS, very heavy gravity
Technology type
M
I
I N
M P
mined domestically
imported
1995
AEO1996and
AEO1999 Ref-
erence Case
Forecast Table
A1 1: Petroleum
Supply and
Disposition
Balance
2000, 2005
AEO2002 Ref-
erence Case
Forecast Table
A11: Petroleum
Supply and
Disposition
Balance
2010,2015,
2020
AEO2002 Oil
Price Compar-
ison Cases
Table C11: Pet-
roleum Supply
and Disposition
Balance
2025, 2030,
2035
Incresae incre-
mentally by per-
centage based
on the growth
change from
20 15 to 2020.
Collector
1 2
Collector
c
5 C
Process Technologies.
Character number
3 4
Resource
0
5 6
7
8
type) Crude grade
L
H
H
L
H
L
L
' HS = high sulfur
b LS = low sulfur
c MS = medium sulfur
Note: Some resource energy carriers have a '-0' at the end of the
name. This is done for fuel accounting purposes in the model.
Table 12. Naming Convention for Crude Oil "Dummy"
Description
7.2.2 Crude Oil RES
The naming conventions used for crude oil are described
in Tables 10 - 13. The RES diagram is shown in Figure 2.
It starts with imported and domestic oil resource technolo-
gies, which output oil energy carriers into collectors, which
then deliver oil to the refineries. (For a specific description
of the refinery types, see Section 8.2.)
7.2.3 Crude Oil Parameters
All costs are expressed in millions of 1995 dollars (95m$).
All energy quantities are expressed in petajoules (PJ).
a HS = high sulfur
b LS = low sulfur
c MS = medium sulfur
BOUND(BD)Or:
For Imported crude oil - The upper bound on available
imported crude oil has been calculated from the AEO 2002
Supply Curves for Imported Crude Oil by summing the
quantities by step in each of five regions: East Coast, Mid-
-------
| IMPOILHH1 | 1
I IMPOILHH2 |
| IMPOILHH3 | 1
I IMPOILHL1 | 1
| IMPOILHL2 |
I IMPOILHL3 | 1
| IMPOILLL1 | 1
I IMPOILLL2 |
| IMPOILLL3 | 1
I IMPOILMH1 | 1
I IMPOILMH3 | 1
| IMPOILHV1 | 1
I IMPOILHV2 |
| IMPOILHV3 | 1
OILHH
H SCOILHH | 1
OILHL
» SCOILHL |
OILLL
» SCOILLL |
OILMH
OILHV
H SCOILHV | 1
OILIMP-0
H SCOILIMP
S27: HIGH CONVERSION REFINERY
S28: EXISTING CONVERSION REFINERY |
S29: HIGH LIMIT REFINERY |
Figure 2. Crude Oil RES in the EPANMD.
west, Gulf Coast, Rocky Mountains, and West Coast; tak-
ing a 5-year average centered on the MARKAL model year
and converting to petajoules. BOUND(BD)Or for 2020 uses
the 2020 source data only and is not a five-year average.
For the years after 2020, it has been extrapolated using the
percentage change from 2015 to 2020.
For domestic crude oil - The year 1995 was calculated by
averaging the quantities for the years 1993 through 1997.
The values for 1993, 1994, and 1995 came from the 1996
AEO Reference Case Forecast Table Al 1: Petroleum Sup-
ply and Disposition Balance. The values for 1996 and 1997
came from the 1999 AEO version of the same table. For
the years 2000 through 2020 the quantity came directly
from the 2002 AEO, Tables All and Cll (see table 9). For
the years 2025 through 2035 the quantity and price were
obtained by using the percent change from 2015 through
2020 on the 2002 AEO.
COST:
For imported crude oil - Calculated by taking a quantity-
weighted average of AEO step prices across the five AEO
regions, then taking a quantity weighted five-year average
centered on the MARKAL model year, and converting to
millions of 1995 dollars per petajoule. (COST for 2020
uses the 2020 source data only and is not a five-year aver-
age.) For the years after 2020, it was extrapolated using
the percentage change from 2015 to 2020.
For domestic crude oil - The year 1995 was calculated by
averaging the costs for the years 1993 through 1997. The
values for 1993, 1994, and 1995 came from the 1996 AEO
Reference Case Forecast Table All: Petroleum Supply and
Disposition Balance. The values for 1996 and 1997 came
from the 1999 AEO version of the same table. For the years
2000 through 2020 the costs came directly from the 2002
AEO, tables All and Cll (see Table 9). For the years 2025
through 2035 the costs were obtained by applying the per-
cent change from 2015 through 2020 to each subsequent
time period.
START:
The start year specifies the first time period of availability.
All crude oil grades, both imported and domestic, are as-
12
-------
sumed to be available at the beginning of the model time
horizon, 1995.
7.3 Imported Refined Products
There are 10 imported refined products represented in the
EPANMD. These are imports of the same products pro-
duced by the oil refineries. For each product, three steps
are characterized in each model year by a cost and the ad-
ditional amount that is available to the model at that cost.
Table 13 lists the sub-categories of petroleum and how they
are represented in the model.
Table 13. Petroleum Products in the EPANMD.
Product Condition
Diesel
Fuel oil
Gasoline
Natural gas liquids (NGL)
Jet fuel
Kerosene
Liquid petroleum gas
Petroleum feedstocks
Methanol
Miscellaneous petroleum
Imported and refined
Imported and refined
Imported and refined
Imported and refined
Imported and refined
Imported and refined
Imported and refined
Imported
Imported and refined
Refined
Table 15. Naming Convention for Imported Refined
Products Energy Carriers.
7.3.1 Imported Refined Products Data Sources
Original data for imported refined products were taken from
the AEO2002 Supply Curves for Imported Refined Prod-
ucts provided by Han-Lin Lee of El A.
7.3.2 Imported Refined Products RES
The naming conventions used for imported refined prod-
ucts are described in Tables 14 - 16. The RES diagrams
are shown in Figures 3-9.
Table 14. Naming Convention for Imported Refined
Products Resource Technologies.
Character number
Final
Description Step
1
8
Technology type
Oil type
1
M P D
i i
1
D
D
D
D
G
N
L
J
K
P
1 M
S
S
S
S
H
S
G
P
T
E
F
E
H
H
L
L
0
L
L
G
F
R
D
T
H
L
L
U
S T
H
high sulfur fuel oil
low sulfur fuel oil
low sulfur diesel
ultra low sulfur diesel
diesel heating oil
gasoline
natural gas liquids
liquid petroleum gas
jet fuel
kerosene
petroleum feedstocks
methanol
1
2
3
Character number
5 4/5/6 5/6/7 6/7/8
Oil type
[Technology type Description
(see Table 14)
M
P imported
Note: Some resource energy carriers have a '-0' at the end of the
name. This is done for fuel accounting purposes in the model.
Table 16. Naming Convention for Imported Refined
Products "Dummy" Collector Process Technologies.
Character number
1234567
Collector Oil type
S C (see Table 1 4)
| IMPGSL1 | 1
| IMPGSL2 |
| IMPGSL3 | 1
GSLIMP-0
8 Final 3
Technology type
IMP
I REFINERIES!
H SCGSLIMP I
NGLIMP-0
| IMPNGLZ H H SCNGLIMP | ,
| MINNGL1 | 1
| MINNGL2 |
| MINNGL3 | 1
| IMPLGP1 | 1
| IMPLPG3 | 1
NGLMIN-0
H SCNGLMIN |
LPGIMP-0
NGL
1\ SCNGL |
I REFINERIES!
GSL
LPG
Figure 3. Imported GSL, NGL, and LPG RES in the
EPANMD.
IMPDSHH1 | 1
IMPDSHH2 |
IMPDSHH3 | 1
DSHH-0
H SCDSHH
IMPDSHL1 | 1
IMPDSHL2 |
IMPDSHL3 | 1
DSHL-0
H SCDSHL
DSH
| REFINERIES |
Figure 4. Imported Fuel Oil (DSH) RES in the EPANMD.
13
-------
IMPJTF1
IMPJTF2
IMPJTF3
-H SCJTFIMP
JTF
| REFINERIES
Figure 5. Imported Jet Fuel RES in the EPANMD.
IMPKER1
IMPKER2
IMPKER3
-H SCKERIMP
| REFINERIES>
KER
Figure 6. Imported Kerosene RES in the EPANMD.
7.3.3 Imported Refined Products Parameters.
All costs are expressed in millions of 1995 dollars. All en-
ergy quantities are expressed in petajoules.
BOUND(BD)Or: For all imported refined products, the
upper quantity bound has been calculated from the
AEO2002 Supply Curves for Imported Refined Products
by summing the imported quantities by step across the five
AEO regions: East Coast, Midwest, Gulf Coast, Rocky
Mountains, and West Coast; taking a five-year average
centered on the MARKAL model year, and converting to
petajoules. For the years 2021-2035, yearly bounds were
generated by extrapolation using the average percentage
change from 2016-2020, and then five-year averages were
calculated.
IMPPFDST1
IMPPFDST2
IMPPFDST3
PFDSTIMP-0
-H SCPFDSTIMP
| REFINERIES
] 1 PFDST
Figure 7. Imported Petroleum Feedstocks RES in the
EPANMD.
COST: For all imported refined products, the cost has been
calculated from the AEO2002 Supply Curves for Imported
Refined Products by taking a quantity-weighted average
of AEO step prices across the five AEO regions, taking a
quantity weighted five-year average centered on the
MARKAL model year, and converting to millions of 1995
dollars per petajoule. For years 2021-2035, yearly COSTs
were generated by extrapolation using the average percent-
age change from 2016-2020, and then five-year averages
were calculated.
IMPMETH1 | 1
IMPMETH2 |
IMPMETH3 | 1
MTHIMP-0
H SCMETH
| PNGAMTH
MTH
Figure 8. Imported Methanol RES in the EPANMD.
| IMPDSLL1 | 1
I IMPDSLL2 |
I IMPDSLL3 | 1
I IMPDSLU1 | 1
| IMPDSLU2 |
I IMPDSLU3 | 1
| IMPDHO1 | 1
I IMPDHO2 |
| IMPDHO3 | 1
DSLL-0
H SCDSLL
DSLU-0
H SCDSLU
DHO-0
H SCDHO
| REFINERIES
DSL
Figure 9. Imported Diesel RES in the EPANMD.
START: For imported refined products and natural gas,
all resources are assumed to be available at the beginning
of the model time horizon, 1995.
7.4 Natural Gas
The natural gas supply curves were developed to estimate
the future prices of natural gas corresponding to the pro-
jected future supply and demand levels. The natural gas
resource supplies are characterized using a series of five
stepped curves representing the incremental cost increases
associated with increased demands in different time peri-
ods.
7.4.1 Natural Gas Data Sources
Data for the natural gas price/supply curves primarily comes
from the North American Natural Gas Analysis System
(NANGAS) Model used by the EPA's Integrated Planning
Model (IPM). The resources in NANGAS model include
over 20,000 individual reservoirs and undiscovered accu-
mulations, frontier resources (which include Alaska North
Slope, Mackenzie Delta, Sable Island, and LNG), and oil
sands recovery in Western Canada. The resulting price/sup-
ply curves from the NANGAS model are plotted in Figure
10.
14
-------
—. 6.0-1
+j
S 5.5-
O>
0)
5.0-
4.5 H
a)
•g 4.0H
a.
tfi
(0
3.5-
O
]5 3.0-1
Ł
(0 Q c
z 2-5
22,
2007
000
24,000
26,000
28,000
30,000
32,000
34,000
Total Natural Gas Supply (TBtu)
Figure 10. Price/Supply Curves for Years 2007, 2010, 2015, 2020, and 2026 from the NANGAS Model.
Note that the supply curves in NANGAS for the early years
are steeper compared to later year supply curves. This is
due to the fact that a substantial increase in gas demand
and gas price for early modeling years will not easily re-
sult in any substantial increase in production and imports,
etc, as substantial supply increases need lead times (U.S.
EPA 2005). For example, according to EPA (2005), a new
LNG terminal takes over 4 years to get certificated and
built.
The price/supply curves from the NANGAS model are
translated to a series of time dependent five step cost/sup-
ply curves and extrapolated to 2035. This cost/supply curve
is different from the price/supply curve in that other fac-
tors, such as transportation, distribution, and sector-spe-
cific mark-ups will be added later to the system on top of
the cost/supply curves. The final "price" will be the total
cost that consumers paid at the system equilibrium.
The cost/supply curves for 2030 and 2035 are extrapolated
based on the 2025 curve, assuming the same cost/supply
curve will be applied for 2025, 2030, and 2035 except the
curves for 2030 and 2035 reach much farther out to have
more resources available at higher prices. The 2000 and
2005 points were based on the reported natural gas total
consumption and well-head price from the Annual Energy
Outlook 2006 (Energy Information Administration 2006).
The same cost/supply curves are applied for both domes-
tic natural gas production and imports based on the ratio-
nale that, at market equilibrium, natural gas should have
the same unit price regardless of its origin. Therefore, an
ADRATIO is added to the database to constrain the ratio
of domestic production and imports of natural gas based
on EIA's AEO projections. The ratios used are listed in
Table 17.
Table 17. Natural Gas Supply Domestic Production/Imports
Ratios Used in the EPANMD.
ADRATIO in %
2005
Domestic
Imports
prod.
81
18
.1
.9
2010
79.3
20.7
2015
78
21
.3
.7
2020
79.1
20.9
2025
77.4
22.6
2030
76
23
.1
,9
2035
76.1
23.9
7.4.2 Natural Gas RES
The naming conventions used for natural gas are described
in Tables 18 - 20. The RES diagram is shown in Figure 12.
Table 18. Naming Convention for Natural Gas Resource
Technologies.
Character number
1234567
Technology type) Resource type step Description
i
M P h
l
M
i
* i
l
\
N
1 \
i i
1 G f
\
\
v 1 Imported, step 1
2 Imported, step 2
3 Imported, step 3
4 Imported, step 4
5 Imported, step 5
1 mined, step 1
2 mined, step 2
3 mined, step 3
4 mined, step 4
5 mined, step 5
15
-------
2035
U)
O>
O>
tfi
O
O
tfi
(0
O
"5
3
+j
(0
22,000 26,000 30,000 34,000 38,000 42,000
Total Natural Gas Supply (PJ)
Figure 11. Cost/Supply Curves Used in the EPANMD.
46,000
Table 19. Naming Convention for Natural Gas Energy NGA
Carriers.
Character number
6
Resource type [Technology type|
Description
0
M
I
I
M
N
P
mined NGA
imported NGA
Note: Some resource energy carriers have a '-0' at the end of the
name. This is done for fuel accounting purposes in the model.
Table 20. Naming Convention for Natural Gas "Dummy"
Collector Process Technologies.
Character number
1 2
Collector
S C
345
Resource type
NGA
678
Technology
M I N
I M P
Description
mined NGA
impoerted NGA
7.4.3 Natural Gas Parameters
All costs are expressed in millions of 1995 dollars. All en-
ergy quantities are expressed in petajoules.
BOUND(BD)Or: The bounds for natural gas supply are
derived from the five step cost/supply curves illustrated
above. The 2000 and 2005 data are one-step upper bounds
based on the reported natural gas supply from the AEO
2003 and 2006 (EIA 2003, EIA 2006). The cost/supply
curves are further broken down to domestic production/
| IMPNGA1 | 1
| IMPNGA2 |
| IMPNGA4 |
| IMPNGA5 |
I MINNGA1 | 1
I MINNGA2 |
I MINNGA3 |
I MINNGA4 |
| MINNGA5 |
>\ SCNGAIMP |
K SCNGAMIN | '
NGA
Figure 12. Natural Gas RES in the EPANMD.
imports based on the domestic production/import ratio pro-
jected by the AEO 2006. The resulting bounds for the do-
mestic and import supply curves are listed in Table 21.
COST: Similar to BOUND(BD)Or, the costs for natural
gas supply are derived from the five step cost/supply curves.
The 2000 and 2005 data are based on the reported natural
gas well-head price from the reference case Table 1 (Total
Energy Supply and Disposition Summary) of AEO 2003
and 2006. The resulting costs for the domestic and import
supply curves are listed in Table 22.
16
-------
Table 21. BOUND(BD)Or for Domestic and Import NGA Supply Curves.
Value of BOUND(BD)Or Parameter for Years
i cuiinuiuijy
MINNGA1
MINNGA2
MINNGA3
MINNGA4
MINNGA5
IMPNGA1
IMPNGA2
IMPNGA3
IMPNGA4
IMPNGA5
DUUIIU
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
2000
20,427
0
0
0
0
4,043
0
0
0
0
2005
19,568
0
0
0
0
4,546
0
0
0
0
2010
20,190
988
988
988
988
4,705
230
230
230
230
2015
22,123
1,370
1,370
1,370
1,370
5,523
342
342
342
342
2020
23,293
1,467
1,467
1,467
1,467
5,435
342
342
342
342
2025
22,989
1,512
1,512
1,512
1,512
5,810
382
382
382
382
2030
22,627
2,599
2,599
2,599
2,599
6,035
693
693
693
693
2035
22,411
3,778
3,778
3,778
3,778
6,321
1,066
1,066
1,066
1,066
Table 22. Domestic and Import NGA Supply Costs.
Value of COST Parameter for Years
i euimuiuyy
MINNGA1
MINNGA2
MINNGA3
MINNGA4
MINNGA5
IMPNGA1
IMPNGA2
IMPNGA3
IMPNGA4
IMPNGA5
2000
3.19
0
0
0
0
3.19
0
0
0
0
2005
6.05
0
0
0
0
6.05
0
0
0
0
2010
4.35
4.59
5.13
5.75
6.45
4.35
4.59
5.13
5.75
6.45
2015
4.75
4.97
5.44
5.95
6.51
4.75
4.97
5.44
5.95
6.51
2020
4.34
4.59
5.13
5.74
6.43
4.34
4.59
5.13
5.74
6.43
2025
4.30
4.54
5.09
5.71
6.40
4.30
4.54
5.09
5.71
6.40
2030
4.26
4.70
5.73
7.00
8.53
4.26
4.70
5.73
7.00
8.53
2035
4.28
4.94
6.63
8.87
11.77
4.28
4.94
6.63
8.87
11.77
Table 23. Domestic and Import NGA Supply Constraints.
Value of BOUND(BD)Or Parameter for Years
RAT
RAT
RAT
__RHS
_ACT
_ACT
...
SCNGAIMP
SCNGAMIN
A
A
A
2000
_NGAIMP FX
_NGAIMP
_NGAIMP
2005 2010
0
-0.811
0.189
2015
0
-0.8002
0.1998
2020
0
-0.8108
0.1892
2025
0
-0.7983
0.2017
2030
0
-0.7894
0.2106
2035
0
-0.78
0.22
START: For natural gas, all resources are assumed to be
available at the beginning of the model time horizon, 1995.
ADRATIO: As shown in Table 16, constraints are added
to constrain the ratio of domestic production and imports
of natural gas. The constraint values listed in Table 23 are
in line with EIA's AEO projections.
7.5 Coal
There are 25 coal types represented in the EPANMD. For
each of the 25 types, eight steps are characterized in each
model year by a cost and the amount that can be produced
at that cost. A cumulative amount that can be extracted
from each type over the entire model horizon has also been
assigned.
7.5.1 Coal Data Sources
Data for supply curves was taken from the coal supply
curves underlying the AEO 2002 reference case, supplied
by Mike Mellish of EIA. The reserves data were taken from
EIA, 1999.
7.5.2 Coal Assumptions
Some AEO regions have been added together to produce
MARKAL regions as illustrated in Table 24.
7.5.3 Coal RES
There are 25 supply curves for coal and, therefore, 25 en-
ergy carriers that the supply curve steps feed into. There
are 10 coal collector process technologies and, therefore,
10 energy carriers that come from them. The naming con-
17
-------
Table 24. MARKAL Coal Regions.
MARKAL Region
AEO Region
Appalachia
Interior
Northern Appalachia
Central Appalachia
Southern Appalachia
Eastern Interior
Western Interior
ventions used for coal are described in Tables 25-29. Fig-
ure 13 shows an example RES flow chart for one of the
coal resources: high sulfur surface bituminous coal from
the Appalachian region.
7.5.4 Coal Parameters
All costs are expressed in millions of 1995 dollars. All en-
ergy quantities are expressed in petajoules.
BOUND(BD)Or: Bounds are calculated by multiplying
the period averaged quantity by step from the AEO 2002
Coal Supply Curves by the average BTU content and con-
verting to petajoules. This procedure produces the bounds
for the years covered by the AEO source data, 2000-2020.
The value for 1995 has been set equal to that for 2000, and
the values for 2025-2035 have been set equal to that for
2020.
Table 27. Naming Convention for Coal Energy Carriers.
Energy Carriers before Collector Technologies
Character Number
1 2 3 4 5
coal
region coal type S content mine type
Energy Carriers after Collector Technologies
1 2 3 4
O
coal type S content
Table 28. Examples of Coal Energy Carriers.
Name Description
CABMU Appalachian bituminous medium sulfur underground coal
CGLMS Gulf lignite medium sulfur surface coal
CIBHS interior bituminous high sulfur surface coal
CNSMS Northwest subbituminous medium surfur surface coal
CPSLS Powder River subbituminous low sulfur surface coal
Table 29. Naming Convention for Coal "Dummy" Collector
Process Technologies.
Character Number
1234 5 6 7
SCC region coal type S content mine type
COST: Costs are calculated by dividing the period aver-
aged AEO Step Price by the average BTU content. This
procedure produces the costs for the years covered by the
Table 25. Examples of Coal Resource Technologies.
Name Description
COAL
MINCABHS1
MINCALMS3
MINCIBHS5
MINCPSMS8
MINCSSMS5
MINCSSMS6
MINCSSMS7
MINCSSMS8
coal
coal
coal
coal
coal
coal
coal
coal
-Appalachia
-Appalachia
- interior, bit.,
- Powder R.,
- Southwest,
- Southwest,
- Southwest,
- Southwest,
, bit., high sulfur, surface, stepl
, lignite, med. sulfur, surface, step 3
high sulfur, surface, step 5
subbit., med. sulfur, surface, step 8
subbit, med. sulfur, surface, step 5
subbit., med. sulfur, surface, step 6
subbit., med. sulfur, surface, step 7
subbit., med. sulfur, surface, step 8
MINCABHS1
MINCABHS2
MINCABHS3
MINCABHS4
MINCABHS5
MINCABHS6
MINCABHS7
MINCABHS8
SCCABHS
Figure 13. High Sulfur Bituminous Coal RES in the
EPANMD.
Table 26. Naming Convention for Coal Resource Technologies.
Character Number
1234 5
6
7
Technology Type Coal Region Description Coal Type Description S Content Description
M I N C A
D
G
I
N
P
R
S
Appalachia
Dakota
Gulf
interior
Northwest
Powder River
Rocky Mountain
Southwest
B
G
L
M
S
bituminous H high
GOB M medium
lignite L low
metallurgical
subbituminous
8
Mine Type Description
S surface
U underground
18
-------
AEO source data, 2000-2020. The value for 1995 has been
set equal to that for 2000, and the values for 2025-2035
have been set equal to that for 2020.
CUM: Total recoverable reserves by state, by grade and
source, from the EIA report on the update of U.S. Coal
Reserves for 1997 (EIA, 1999) are summed into MARKAL
regions and converted into petajoules. Reserve percentages
by sulfur content derived from the EIA report are used to
apportion reserves by sulfur content and by step. For each
step in each resource curve, the fraction of the total re-
source belonging to that step is calculated by dividing the
sum of its 2000-2020 quantity bounds by the sum of the
bounds for all eight steps. This fraction is then multiplied
by the total reserves for the appropriate coal type to get to
the CUM for that step.
START: For coal, all resources are assumed to become
available in the first model year, 1995.
7.6 Renewables
7.6.1 Biomass
Biomass resources are utilized in MARKAL for fuel and
heat production as well as electricity generation. Biomass
resources are organized in three separate categories: woody,
herbaceous, and landfill gas from municipal solid waste.
Data Sources
Data on biomass resources were taken from the 1997 DOE
MARKAL database.
RES
With respect to biomass, MARKAL includes renewable
resources, energy carriers, processes, and conversion tech-
nologies. The sector uses the following naming conven-
tions: RNW denotes renewable, BIOHC denotes herba-
ceous crop biomass, BMSWX denotes municipal solid
waste, and BIOWD denotes woody biomass. Processes that
convert biomass resources to other fuels are named start-
ing with a P, followed by the type of biomass resource, and
ending with the three letter description of the energy car-
rier the biomass is converted into. Figure 14 is the RES
flowchart.
Parameters
Costs for biomass resources are expressed in millions of
1995 dollars per petajoule. Investment costs for biomass-
related process technologies are expressed in million dol-
lars per petajoule per year, the exception being biomass
combined cycle electricity generation technologies, which
IRNWBMSWXI]
RNWBIOWDAt
RNWBIOWDBt
RNWBIOWDCt
RNWBIOWDDh
RNWBIOWDE
RNWBIOWDF
|RNWBIOWDG|
Figure 14. Biomass Resource RES.
are expressed in million dollars per gigawatt. Resource
supply is defined in units of petajoule.
BOUND(BD)Or: With respect to woody biomass, this pa-
rameter specifies the maximum annual production avail-
able at each step cost. Annual limits were derived from the
1997 DOE MARKAL database.
COST: For woody biomass, costs were defined at each
step according to data drawn from the 1997 DOE
MARKAL database.
7.6.2 Wind, Solar, Hydro, and Geothermal
Wind, hydro, and geothermal resources are utilized in
MARKAL for electricity production. Solar resources are
utilized in MARKAL for both residential water heating
and electricity production.
Data Sources
There are no costs associated with these resources. Geo-
thermal has an upper bound in activity of 2500 PJ, which
is based on the AEO2002 projection of geothermal use.
RES
Figure 15 shows the reference energy system for wind,
hydro, and geothermal resources.
19
-------
RNWWIN
RNWSOLAR
RNWGEOTHM
RNWHYDRO
WIN-0
SOLAR-0
GEOTHM-0
HYDRO-0
COALBH-0
COALEX
SCCEXBHS
EXPCOALEXX
Figure 17. Coal Export RES Example.
Table 31. Coal Export BOUND(BD)Or.
Technology 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
EXPCOALEXX 1612 1612 1492 1436 1414 1456 1498 1540 1582
Figure 15. Wind, Solar, Hydro, and Geothermal Resource
RES.
7.7 Export Technologies
7.7.1 Oil and Natural Gas Exports
MARKAL uses resource technologies to allow the export
of some of the resource supplies. In the EPANMD, there
are export technologies for coal, diesel, gasoline, and natu-
ral gas. Each technology has an input energy carrier, a cost
equal to zero, and a fixed bound, listed in Table 30. These
values are fixed to the export values found in the AEO2002.
There is no fixed bound for diesel because there are no
diesel exports in the AEO2002. The RES for oil and natu-
ral gas exports is shown in Figure 16.
Table 30. BOUND(BD)Or on Gasoline and NGA Exports.
Technology 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
EXPGSL1 2268 2268 1797 2012 2129 2223 2223 2223 2223
EXPNGA 261 261 428 666 693 595 595 595 595
DSL
EXPDSL1
GSL
EXPGSL1
NGA
EXPNGA
Figure 16. Oil and NGA Exports in the RES.
7.7.2 Coal Exports
There are 10 "dummy" collector process technologies used
to collect coal for exporting. The collectors are used to
collect export coal based on the distinctions by coal type
(bituminous, sub-bituminous, metallurgical, and lignite)
and sulfur content (low, medium, and high). Figure 17
shows one example of how the RES represents coal being
collected and transported for export. The bounds for coal
export, listed in Table 31, are set to the values in the
AEO2002.
8 Process Technologies
General process technologies are discussed below. Sector
specific process technologies are discussed in the demand
sector sections.
8.1 Process Technology Parameters
AF: Specifies the total annual availability of a technology.
It is equal to the annual hours of actual availability divided
by the total hours in a year.
INVCOST: Specifies the cost of investment in one incre-
mental unit of new capacity.
INP(ENT)p: Specifies the amount of an energy carrier that
is input to a process technology.
OUT(ENC)p: Specifies the amount of an energy carrier
that is output from a process technology.
VAROM: Specifies the annual variable operating and
maintenance costs associated with the installed capacity
of a technology expressed as base year monetary units per
unit of activity.
FIXOM: Specifies the annual fixed operating and mainte-
nance costs associated with the installed capacity of atech-
nology expressed as base year monetary units per unit of
capacity.
LIFE: Specifies the lifetime of a technology in years.
START: Specifies the first time period of availability.
RESID: Specifies the residual capacity in each model year
for technology stock already existing at the beginning of
the modeling horizon (1995). Since the technology stock
20
-------
has been installed before the model start year, the invest-
ment cost is assumed to have already been expended and
is therefore not included in the model.
BOUND(BD): Specifies a lower, upper, or fixed limit on a
process technology's installed capacity in a specified pe-
riod.
8.2 Refineries
The EPANMD representation of the refinery sector has
three refinery types. S28 represents existing refinery con-
version practices. S27 represents a high conversion refin-
ery that can produce up to 50% of a dummy liquid inter-
mediate that feeds S29, the high limit refinery, which can
produce very high proportions of diesel and gasoline. This
cascaded implementation of the refinery processes permits
more flexibility within the sector.
8.2.1 Refinery RES
The reference energy system for refineries is illustrated in
Figure 18.
8.2.2 Refinery Parameters
All costs are expressed in millions of 1995 dollars. Energy
quantities are expressed in petajoules.
Cost and availability parameters
Table 32 lists the availability and cost parameters for the
three refinery types. Data come from the 97 DOE
MARKAL database.
Input and output parameters
INP(ENC)p: Refinery Energy consumption factors are cal-
culated based on output of the reference case from EIA's
AEO2002 by dividing the total refinery energy consump-
tion (NEMS Table 35, Refining Industry Energy Consump-
tion) by the sum of the total refinery production (Table 69,
Table 32. Cost and Availability Parameters for Refinery
Types.
Parameter
AF
INVCOST
VAROM
FIXOM
LIFE
START
S27
High
Conversion
Refinery
1.00
5.334
0.239
0
25
1995
S28
Existing
Conversion
Refinery
1.00
3.035
0.216
0.071
25
1995
S29
High Limit
Refinery
1.00
1.00
0.1
0
25
1995
Domestic Refinery Production). The unit is in petajoules
input per petajoules output. This simple approach assumes
the same mix of energy input for all types of final product
mix. Table 33 lists the energy demand for each of the re-
fineries. The energy demands of the refineries increase
slightly over time. This is due to the fact that more energy
will be needed at the refinery in order to fuel emissions
reduction retrofits to comply with more stringent environ-
mental regulations.
OUT(ENC)p: The energy output (production per unit crude
oil) is also modified from the AEO 2002. NEMS Table 31.
Refinery Production, MBCD, PADD6 is divided by the
total annual crude oil production of the AEO 2002 Table 1.
Total Energy Supply and Disposition Summary.
The sum of energy carrier output, OUT(ENC)p, for each
refinery is greater than one, and therefore, LIMIT=1 is
imposed as the maximum sum of all output carrier units
per unit of activity. When LIMIT is used, OUT(ENC)p
then represents the maximum production of each carrier
instead of the fixed proportional production of each car-
rier. This allows MARKAL (and thus, the refineries) to
vary that output of the facility to meet demands. In this
way, the blend and output of the refinery can be chosen by
the MARKAL optimization procedure. Table 34 lists the
Oil
I NGA 1
| Electricity!
| S29: High Limit Refinery |
^ \
\ S27: High Conversion Refinery f 1
* >
1 — H DSH: Heavy Distillate |
— ^| DSL: Diesel |
— »| GSLRNGL: Gasoline |
— H JTF: Jet Fuel |
— *| KER: Kerosene |
— *\ PFDST: Petrochem Feedstocks |
— H NEMISC: Misc Petroleum |
— *| LPG: Liquid Petroleum Gas |
Figure 18. Refinery RES.
21
-------
Table 33.
Refinery
S27
S27
S27
S28
S28
S28
S29
Input Energy Carrier INP(ENC)p Values (units are in PJ/PJ).
Parameter
OIL
INDELC
NGAIEA
OIL
INDELC
NGAIEA
DLG
1995
1
0.0034
0.0254
1
0.0034
0.0254
1
2000
1
0.0034
0.0254
1
0.0034
0.0254
1
2005
1
0.0038
0.0271
1
0.0038
0.0271
1
2010
1
0.0048
0.0272
1
0.0048
0.0272
1
2015
1
0.0051
0.0247
1
0.0051
0.0247
1
2020
1
0.0051
0.0238
1
0.0051
0.0238
1
2025
1
0.0051
0.0256
1
0.0051
0.0256
1
2030
1
0.0051
0.0257
1
0.0051
0.0257
1
2035
1
0.0051
0.0257
1
0.0051
0.0257
1
product mixes and maximum production for each of the
refineries.
Table 34. Output Energy Carrier OUT(ENC)p Values (units
are in PJ/PJ).
Parameter
DLG
DSH
DSL
GSLRNGL
JTF
KER
LPG
NEMISC
PFDST
S27
High
Conversion
Refinery
0.5
0.0552
0.312
0.864
0.216
0.0072
0.0552
0.24
0.048
S28
Existing
Conversion
Refinery
—
0.06
0.23
0.51
0.1
0.01
0.05
0.12
0.03
S29
High Limit
Refinery
—
0.6
0.3
0.3
1
0.04
0.05
0.2
0.1
Other parameters
RESID: The Existing Conversion refinery has residual ca-
pacity starting in 1995 that is set equal to its bound on
capacity. In other words, the stated RESID, is the only ca-
pacity that will be available for Existing Conversion refin-
eries. No new capacity will be installed. The RESID data
for the Existing Conversion refinery, S28, comes from two
sources: EIAAEO (2004) Figure 100 (Domestic refining
capacity in three cases) and Table 68 (Domestic Refinery
Distillation Base Capacity, Expansion, and Utilization). The
RESID equals the existing capacity minus the expected
retirement by year.
BOUND(BD): The High Conversion refinery has a capac-
ity bound starting in the year 2010. Therefore, there will
always be a limit to the amount of refinery capacity avail-
able to the model.
According to the EIA, new refinery construction is three
to four times more expensive than capacity expansion at
an existing site. However, there is no easy way in MARKAL
to allow capacity expansion at the same facility. There-
fore, the only expansion allowed in MARKAL is new ca-
pacity at an existing refinery plant (i.e., S27 and its exten-
sion S29). Bound on domestic capacity of S27 is calcu-
lated based on the extrapolation of the Figure 100 high
growth scenario. The relevant capacity upper bound and
residual capacity for existing and high conversion refiner-
ies are listed in Table 35. All values are expressed in
petajoules per year.
8.2.3 Refinery Emissions
The refinery process emission factor calculations are based
on a model for refinery emissions developed by Delucchi
(2003). The emission factor change over time is based on
assumptions about the fraction of equipment that includes
emission controls. The assumptions used for this analysis
are defaults from Delucchi 2003, reflecting his judgement
on best values for reproducing EPA estimates. These emis-
sions are all process emissions (i.e., emissions NOT due to
combustion of fuels). However, they do include combus-
tion of some by-products—e.g., CO and non-methane or-
ganic compounds (NMOCs). Process emissions tend to
decrease over time due to increased use of control tech-
nologies. CO and NMOCs emissions are controlled by
burning the CO or NMOC, which produces CO2. There-
fore, increased controls of CO and NMOC will lead to in-
creased CO2 emissions. The unit of emission factors listed
in Table 36 is thousand tones per petajoule, excepting CO2
emission factors, which is in million tones per petajoule.
8.3 Coal Gasification
The EPANMD has three process technologies for coal gas-
ification: high BTU coal gasification, medium BTU coal
gasification, and in-situ gasification.
8.3.1 Gasification RES
Each coal type passes through a "dummy" process tech-
nology which tracks the emissions and then through the
gasification process. Each process produces pipeline qual-
ity natural gas (NGPQ). The reference energy system for
coal gasification is shown in Figure 19.
22
-------
Table 35. Existing Refinery Residual Capacity and Bound on Capacity, High Conversion Bound on Capacity.
Refinery Parameter 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
S27
S28
S28
BOUND(BD)
BOUND(BD)
RESID
UP
UP
Table 36. Emission factors of
Refinery Parameter 1995
S27
S27
S27
S27
S27
S27
S27
S28
S28
S28
S28
S28
S28
S28
CO2a
-------
Table 38. Bounds on Gasification Capacity in PJ per Year.
Technology 1995 2000 2005 2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
High Btu Gasification —
Medium Btu Gasification —
In-situ Gasification —
128
505
—
128
1000
62.5
253
1800
100
378
2600
325
563
3400
550
565
4200
775
565
4600
887.5
565
5000
1000
The cost values all come from the 1997 DOE MARKAL
database. All costs are expressed in millions of 1995 dol-
lars, and energy quantities are expressed in petajoules.
8.4.1 Pipeline Quality NGA
Before going to the demand sectors, NGA passes through
a process, shown in Figure 20, to transform it into pipeline
quality Natural Gas (NGPQ), and there are some costs as-
sociated with this. The parameters associated with pipe-
line quality natural gas are
• INVCOST: 14.369
• RESID: 21000
• LIFE: 45
• INP(ENT)p: 1.0417 (it is assumed that there is some
gas loss in the pipeline)
NGA
NGPQ
PNGANGAP
Figure 20. Pipeline Quality NGA RES.
8.4.2 Natural Gas Compression
Pipeline quality natural gas is compressed (CNG), Figure
21, for use in CNG fueled vehicles. The parameters asso-
ciated with compressing natural gas are
• INP(ENT)p: 1.0753
• AF: 0.75
NGPQ
CNG
PNAGCNG
Figure 21. CNG RES.
8.4.3 Methanolfrom Natural Gas
Pipeline quality natural gas is processed into methanol,
Figure 22, for the transportation and electric generation
sectors. The parameters associated with processing metha-
nol from natural gas are
• INVCOST: 36.681
• VAROM: 4.713
• BOUND(BD): 325
• AF: 0.9
• LIFE: 30
• INP(ENT)p: 1.0
NGPQ
MTH
PNGAMTH
Figure 22. Methanol from NGA RES.
8.5 Coke
Coke is fuel produced by partially burning coal in a re-
duced oxygen atmosphere. This removes most of the gas-
ses, leaving a solid that burns at a higher temperature than
coal. There are two grades of coke in the EPANMD. Chemi-
cal grade coke is a lower grade and is used for reducing
phosphate rock in electric furnaces and in the production
of calcium carbide. In the EPANMD this is referred to as
COKE. Metallurgical grade coke produces a much higher
temperature and is used as the heat source in blast furnaces
primarily for making iron and steel. In the EPANMD this
is referred to as COMET.
8. 5.1 Coke RES
Imported COMET is put into a "dummy" collector pro-
cess, SCCMETIMP. Metallurgical low- and medium- sul-
fur coal pass through a "dummy" emissions accounting
process. All three resources are then fed into a coking fur-
nace process, PCOKE, which produces the energy carrier
COKE. Imported coke is put into a "dummy" collector
process, SCCOKEIMP, which can then become the emis-
sions carrier COKE. The reference energy system for coke
is shown in Figure 23 .
CMETIMP-O
IMPCOMETZ
COALML-0
COALMM-0
SCCMETIMP
SECOKML
CMET
SECOKMM
PCOKE
COKEIMP-0
IMPCOKE1
SCCOKEIMP
COKE
Figure 23. Coke RES.
8.5.2 Coke Parameters
The emissions and collector "dummy" process technolo-
gies have no costs associated with them. The only process
parameters are for the coking process, PCOKE. The cost
values all come from the 1997 DOE MARKAL database
24
-------
and are expressed in millions of 1995 dollars. Energy quan-
tities are expressed in petajoules.
• INP(ENT)p: 1.4286
• INVCOST: 16.208
• FIXOM: 2.586
• LIFE: 30
• RESID: The RESID is 2200 in 1995 and is linearly
decreased by 367 each time period until all the RESID
is gone.
9 Conversion Technologies
9.1 Electricity Generation
This section describes the parameters and sources of data
used to characterize electricity generation technologies in
the EPANMD. Cogeneration, a specific type of electric
generation process, is discussed in the Industrial Sector
description.
9.1.1 Electricity Data Sources
Original data for this sector was taken from the six sources
that are listed below in order of the priority they were used:
• EIA Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2002 Tables 38,
45, and 69;
• EIAAnnual Energy Outlook 2002 Reference Case Per-
formance Characteristics;
• National Energy Technology Laboratory;
• "Supporting Analysis for the Comprehensive Electric-
ity Competition Act", DOE/PO-0059;
• 1993 EPRI TAG guide; and
• 1997 DOE MARKAL database.
These data sources are applied in MARKAL as listed in
Table 39.
9.1.2 Electricity RES
The Electric Generation RES, shown in Figure 24, con-
sists of conversion technologies and import electricity re-
source technologies that all output electricity to the sys-
tem. At the front end ofthe conversion technologies, emis-
sions are tracked through "dummy" emissions tracking
process technoloaies.
constraints
earners
Process Technologies
energy
carriers
Conversion Technologies
emissions
Resource Technologies
ELC
Figure 24. Electrical Generation Sector RES.
9.1.3 Electricity Resource Technologies
The EPANMD has three resource steps for import elec-
tricity as shown in Figure 25. Each step has an upper bound
and a cost for each unit of available electricity (similar to
the step curves for other resource technologies). The val-
ues for cost and upper bound were taken from the 1997
DOE MARKAL database.
IMPELC1
IMPELC2
IMPELC3
-ELC
Figure 25. Imported Electricity Resource Technologies.
9.1.4 Electricity Conversion Technologies
The first letter in the name reflects the technology sector.
In this case 'E' is used for 'Electricity'. The next three or
four characters represent the fuel type and the remaining
Table 39. Data Sources for Electric Sector Technologies.
MARKAL Technology Name Cap. Cost Source
EWINLWT
ECOAMCFC
EMTHFC
EDSLICE
ENGAGCE
ENGASTM
ENGACTE
ENUCCONV
EDSHSTM
EDSLCT
EHYDROPS
EHYDRO
ESOLPVR
ENGADGB05
ENGADGB10
Local wind turbine
Coal gasification molten carb. fuel cell
Methanol fuel cell
Diesel internal combustion engine
Existing natural gas combined cycle
Natural gas steam
Existing natural gas combustion turbine
Conventional nuclear
Residual fuel oil steam
Distillate oil combustion turbine
Hydroelectric pumped storage
Hydroelectric
Photovolataic — residential
Distributed generation — base — 2005
Distributed generation — base — 2010
1997 MARKAL
1997 MARKAL
1997 MARKAL
1997 MARKAL
AEO 2002
AEO 2002
AEO 2002
AEO 2002
AEO 2002
AEO 2002
AEO 2002
AEO 2002
AEO 2002, Table 12
AEO 2002, Table 38
AEO 2002, Table 38
O&M Source
1997 MARKAL
1997 MARKAL
1997 MARKAL
1997 MARKAL
AEO 2002
AEO 2002
AEO 2002
AEO 2002
AEO 2002
AEO 2002
AEO 2002
AEO 2002
1997 MARKAL
AEO 2002, Table 38
AEO 2002, Table 38
Heat Rate Source
1997 MARKAL
1997 MARKAL
1997 MARKAL
1997 MARKAL
AEO 2002
AEO 2002
AEO 2002
AEO 2002
AEO 2002
AEO 2002
AEO 2002
AEO 2002
AEO 2002, Table 38
AEO 2002, Table 38
AEO 2002, Table 38
continued
25
-------
Table 39 (concluded). Data Sources for Electric Sector Technologies.
MARKAL Technology Name Cap. Cost Source
O&M Source
Heat Rate Source
ENGADGP
ENGAFC
ENUCADV
ECOAIGCOO
ECOAIGC05
ECOAIGC10
ECOANSEOO
ECOANSE05
ECOANSE10
ENGAGCOO
ENGAGC05
ENGAGC10
ENGAAGC05
ENGAAGC10
ENGACTOO
ENGACT05
ENGACT10
ENGAACT05
ENGAACT10
EBIOCC
EGEOBCFS
EBMSWLG
ESOLCT
ESOLCPV
EWINCELC
ECOAPFB
ECOASTMB
ECOASTMS
ECOASTML
ECOANSER
Distributed generation — peak
Gas fuel cell
Advanced nuclear
Integrated coal gasif. combined cycle — 2000
Integrated coal gasif. combined cycle — 2005
Integrated coal gasif. combined cycle — 2010
Pulverized coal — 2000
Pulverized coal — 2005
Pulverized coal — 2010
Natural gas combined cycle — 2000
Natural gas combined cycle — 2005
Natural gas combined cycle — 2010
Natural gas advanced combined cycle — 2005
Natural gas advanced combined cycle — 2010
Natural gas combustion turbine — 2000
Natural gas combustion turbine — 2005
Natural gas combustion turbine — 2010
Natural gas advanced combustion turbine — 2005
Natural gas advanced combustion turbine — 2010
Biomass gasification combined cycle
Geothermal binary cycle and flashed steam
Municipal solid waste-landfill gas
Solar central thermal
Central photovoltaic
Wind central electric
Pressurized fluidized bed
Existing bituminous coal steam
Existing sub-bituminous coal steam
Existing lignite steam
Repowered existing coal powered facilities
AEO 2002, Table 38
AEO 2002, Table 38
AEO 2002, Table 38
AEO 2002, Table 45
AEO 2002, Table 45
AEO 2002, Table 45
AEO 2002, Table 45
AEO 2002, Table 45
AEO 2002, Table 45
AEO 2002, Table 45
AEO 2002, Table 45
AEO 2002, Table 45
AEO 2002, Table 45
AEO 2002, Table 45
AEO 2002, Table 45
AEO 2002, Table 45
AEO 2002, Table 45
AEO 2002, Table 45
AEO 2002, Table 45
AEO 2002, Table 69
AEO 2002, Table 69
AEO 2002, Table 69
AEO 2002, Table 69
AEO 2002, Table 69
AEO 2002, Table 69
NETL
TAG
TAG
TAG
TAG
AEO 2002, Table 38
AEO 2002, Table 38
AEO 2002, Table 38
AEO 2002, Table 38
AEO 2002, Table 38
AEO 2002, Table 38
AEO 2002, Table 38
AEO 2002, Table 38
AEO 2002, Table 38
AEO 2002, Table 38
AEO 2002, Table 38
AEO 2002, Table 38
AEO 2002, Table 38
AEO 2002, Table 38
AEO 2002, Table 38
AEO 2002, Table 38
AEO 2002, Table 38
AEO 2002, Table 38
AEO 2002, Table 38
AEO 2002, Table 38
AEO 2002, Table 38
AEO 2002, Table 38
AEO 2002, Table 38
AEO 2002, Table 38
AEO 2002, Table 38
NETL
AEO 2002
AEO 2002
AEO 2002
AEO 2002
AEO 2002, Table 38
AEO 2002, Table 38
AEO 2002, Table 38
AEO 2002, Table 45
AEO 2002, Table 45
AEO 2002, Table 45
AEO 2002, Table 45
AEO 2002, Table 45
AEO 2002, Table 45
AEO 2002, Table 45
AEO 2002, Table 45
AEO 2002, Table 45
AEO 2002, Table 45
AEO 2002, Table 45
AEO 2002, Table 45
AEO 2002, Table 45
AEO 2002, Table 45
AEO 2002, Table 45
AEO 2002, Table 45
AEO 2002, Table 38
AEO 2002, Table 38
AEO 2002, Table 38
AEO 2002, Table 38
AEO 2002, Table 38
AEO 2002, Table 38
NETL
AEO 2002
AEO 2002
AEO 2002
AEO 2002
characters are used to represent the technology type. Num-
bers are then used to refer to the vintage, the first year of
availability. Table 40 lists the electricity conversion tech-
nologies.
Table 40. Electricity Conversion Technologies.
Name Electricity Conversion Technology
ECOAIGCOO integrated coal gasif. combined cycle—2000
ECOAIGC05 integrated coal gasif. combined cycle—2005
ECOAIGC10 integrated coal gasif. combined cycle—2010
ECOAPFB pressurized fluidized bed
ECOASTMB existing bituminous coal steam
ECOASTMS existing sub-bituminous coal steam
ECOASTML existing lignite steam
ECOACFPOO pulverized coal—2000
ECOACFP05 pulverized coal—2005
ECOACFP10 pulverized coal—2010
ECOACFPR repowered existing coal powered facilities
ENGADGB05 distributed generation—base—2005
ENGADGB10 distributed generation—base—2010
ENGADGP distributed generation—peak
ESOLPVR photovolataic—residential
EWINLWT local wind turbine
ECOAMCFC coal gasification molten carb fuel cell
ENGAFC gasoline fuel cell
EMTHFC methanol fuel cell
ENGAGCE existing natural gas combined cycle
continued
Table 40 (concluded). Electricity Conversion Technologies.
Name
Electricity Conversion Technology
ENGAGCE existing natural gas combined cycle
ENGAGCOO natural gas combined cycle—2000
ENGAGC05 natural gas combined cycle—2005
ENGAGC10 natural gas combined cycle—2010
ENGAAGC05 natural gas advanced combined cycle—2005
ENGAAGC10 natural gas advanced combined cycle—2010
ENGASTM natural gas steam
ENGACTE existing natural gas combustion turbine
ENGACTOO natural gas combustion turbine—2000
ENGACT05 natural gas combustion turbine—2005
ENGACT10 natural gas combustion turbine—2010
ENGAACT05 natural gas advanced combustion turbine—2005
ENGAACT10 natural gas advanced combustion turbine—2010
ENUCCONV conventional nuclear
ENUCADV advanced nuclear
EDSLICE diesel internal combustion engine
EDSHSTM residual fuel oil steam
EDSLCT distillate oil combustion turbine
EHYDROPS hydroelectric pumped storage
EBIOCC biomass gasification combined cycle
EGEOBCFS geothermal binary cycle and flashed steam
EHYDRO hydroelectric
EBMSWLG municipal solid waste-landfill gas
ESOLCT solar central thermal
ESOLCPV central photovoltaic
EWINCELC wind central electric
26
-------
9.1.5 Electricity Process Technologies
The only process technologies used in the electricity gen-
eration sector are "dummy" technologies for tracking emis-
sions. Those processes are described in Section 9.1.8, Elec-
tricity Emissions Accounting.
9.1.6 Electricity Parameters
All costs are expressed in millions of 1995 dollars. All en-
ergy quantities are expressed in petajoules. Capacities are
expressed in gigawatts, while activities (production of elec-
tricity) are expressed in petajoules.
Availability parameters
START: The start year specifies the first time period of
availability of a technology within the model time hori-
zon.
LIFE: Specifies the number of years for which a
technology's capacity may be utilized. The data for this
parameter comes from the 1997 DOE MARKAL database,
and its value is listed in Table 41.
AF: Specifies the total annual availability of a technology
in each period. The data for this parameter comes from
"Supporting Analysis for the Comprehensive Electricity
Competition Act", Table C4 and the 1997 DOE MARKAL
database, and its value is listed in Table 41.
AF_TID: Specifies the fraction of the total unavailability
of a technology that is forced outage. The remaining un-
availability is assumed to be scheduled outage. The data
for this parameter comes from "Supporting Analysis for
the Comprehensive Electricity Competition Act", Table C4
and the 1997 DOE MARKAL database, and its value is
listed in Table 41.
AF(Z)(Y): Specifies the availability for technologies whose
availabilities vary by season (Z) and time-of-day (Y). The
availability accounts for both forced and scheduled out-
ages in each time division. In MARKAL, Z refers to sea-
son, S = summer, I = intermediate (spring and autumn),
and W = winter. Y refers to time-of-day, D = day, and N =
night. AF(Z)(Y) is a fraction calculated as the hours of
availability in the specified season and time-of-day divided
by the total hours in the specified season and time-of-day.
The data for this parameter comes from the 1997 DOE
MARKAL database.
CF(Z)(Y): Specifies the capacity utilization rate of a fixed
capacity utilization technology in each season (Z) and time-
of-day (Y). The utilization rate applies to fixed capacity
utilization technologies that can have seasonal or diurnal
variations in capacity utilization. It is generally measured
as the average of the utilization for each season and time-
of-day division in each year over the period. The data for
this parameter comes from the 1997 DOE MARKAL data-
base.
PEAK(CON): Specifies the fraction of a generation
technology's capacity that can be counted on to be avail-
able to meet peak demand and reserve margin requirements
based on its availability, reliability, and other consider-
ations. The data for this parameter come from the 1997
DOE MARKAL database, and its value is listed in Table
41.
IBOND(BD): This parameter can be used to place an up-
per (UP), lower (LO), or fixed (FX) bound on investment
in new capacity. In this sector, it has primarily been used
to prevent investment in an older vintage technology once
a newer vintage has become available (upper bound of
zero).
Table 41. Availability Values for Electric Sector Technologies.
MARKAL
ECOAIGCOO
ECOAIGC05
ECOAIGC10
ECOAPFB
ECOASTMB
ECOASTMS
ECOASTML
ECOACFPOO
ECOACFP05
ECOACFP10
ECOACFPR
Technology
Integrated coal gasif. combined cycle — 2000
Integrated coal gasif. combined cycle — 2005
Integrated coal gasif. combined cycle — 2010
Pressurized fluidized bed
Existing bituminous coal steam
Existing sub-bituminous coal steam
Existing lignite steam
Pulverized coal — 2000
Pulverized coal — 2005
Pulverized coal — 2010
Repowered existing coal powered facilities
LIFE
Technical
Lifetime
30
30
30
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
30
AF
Availability
Fraction
0.846
0.846
0.846
0.85
0.846
0.846
0.846
0.85
0.85
0.85
0.846
AF_TID
Fraction of
Unavailability that
is Forced
0.3727
0.3727
0.3727
0.5
0.3727
0.3727
0.3727
0.3727
0.3727
0.3727
0.3727
PEAK(CON)
Fraction of
Capacity for Peak
and Reserve
0.899
0.899
0.899
0.8
0.96
0.96
0.96
0.96
0.96
0.96
0.865
continued
27
-------
Table 41 (concluded). Availability Values for Electric Sector Technologies.
LIFE
AF
AF TID
PEAK(CON)
MARKAL
ENGADGB05
ENGADGB10
ENGADGP
ESOLPVR
EWINLWT
ECOAMCFC
ENGAFC
EMTHFC
ENGAGCE
ENGAGCOO
ENGAGC05
ENGAGC10
ENGAAGC05
ENGAAGC10
ENGASTM
ENGACTE
ENGACTOO
ENGACT05
ENGACT10
ENGAACT05
ENGAACT10
ENUCCONV
ENUCADV
EDSLICE
EDSHSTM
EDSLCT
EHYDROPS
EBIOCC
EGEOBCFS
EHYDRO
EBMSWLG
ESOLCT
ESOLCPV
EWINCELC
Technology
Distributed generation — base — 2005
Distributed generation — base — 2010
Distributed generation — peak
Photovolataic — residential
Local wind turbine
Coal gasification molten carb. fuel cell
Gasoline fuel cell
Methanol fuel cell
Existing natural gas combined cycle
Natural gas combined cycle — 2000
Natural gas combined cycle — 2005
Natural gas combined cycle — 2010
Natural gas advanced combined cycle — 2005
Natural gas advanced combined cycle — 2010
Natural gas steam
Existing natural gas combustion turbine
Natural gas combustion turbine — 2000
Natural gas combustion turbine — 2005
Natural gas combustion turbine — 2010
Natural gas advanced combustion turbine — 2005
Natural gas advanced combustion turbine — 2010
Conventional nuclear
Advanced nuclear
Diesel internal combustion engine
Residual fuel oil steam
Distillate oil combustion turbine
Hydroelectric pumped storage
Biomass gasification combined cycle
Geothermal binary cycle and flashed steam
Hydroelectric
Municipal solid waste-landfill gas
Solar central thermal
Central photovoltaic
Wind central electric
Technical
Lifetime
30
30
30
20
20
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
40
30
30
30
30
30
30
40
40
20
40
30
50
30
30
60
30
30
30
30
"sss <
0.835
0.835
0.835
— a
—
0.87
0.87
0.87
0.906
0.906
0.906
0.906
0.906
0.906
0.846
0.924
0.924
0.924
0.924
0.924
0.924
0.8
0.85
0.835
0.846
0.924
—
0.8
0.635
0.44
—
—
—
—
JnalTilabilitythat
0.63
0.63
0.63
—
—
0.7957
0.7957
0.7957
0.5729
0.5729
0.5729
0.5729
0.5729
0.5729
0.3727
0.4675
0.4675
0.4675
0.4675
0.4675
0.4675
0.4162
0.3838
0.63
0.3727
0.4675
1
0.8
1
0.1
—
—
—
—
Capacity for Peak
and Reserve
0.96
0.96
0.96
0.3
0.3
0.6
0.6
0.6
1
0.94
0.94
0.94
0.862
0.862
0.96
0.96
0.96
0.96
0.96
0.944
0.944
0.85
0.85
0.96
0.9825
0.96
0.95
0.84
0.63
0.944
0.9
0.3
0.5
0.3
1 Dashed entries represent technologies whose output varies by time of day and/or season and is specified by the parameter
AF(Z)(Y) instead.
Cost parameters
AEO2002: Cost and performance characteristics from EIA's
AEO2002 Reference Case. These inputs represent EIA's
assumptions about costs and heat rates.
Assumptions to the AEO 2002 Table 38: AEO 2002 Cost
and Performance Characteristics of New Electricity Gen-
erating Technologies
Assumptions to the AEO 2002 Table 45: Cost and Perfor-
mance Characteristics for Fossil-Fueled Generating Tech-
nologies: Three Cases
Assumptions to the AEO 2002 Table 69: Cost and Perfor-
mance Characteristics for Renewable Energy Generating
Technologies: Two Cases
INVCOST: Specifies the cost of investment in one incre-
mental unit of new capacity. Values were taken directly
from these sources and converted from their original units
to the MARKAL units of millions of 1995 dollars per gi-
gawatt.
VAROM: Specifies the annual variable operating and main-
tenance coasts. Values were taken directly from these
sources and converted from their original units to the
MARKAL units of millions of 1995 dollars per petajoule.
FIXOM: Specifies the fixed operating and maintenance
costs for a technology. Values were taken directly from
these sources and converted from their original units to the
MARKAL units of millions of 1995 dollars per gigawatt.
Input and output parameters
INP(ENT)c: The Heat rate. Specifies the amount of en-
ergy input needed to produce one unit of electricity out-
put. Values were taken directly from these sources and con-
28
-------
verted from their original units of British thermal units per
kilowatt and converted to the MARKAL units of petajoules
perpetajoule.
OUT(ELC)_TID: Specifies that electricity is produced by
the technology. The value of 1 indicates that each technol-
ogy only produces electricity.
Other MARKAL parameters
CAPUNIT: This parameter is used to provide MARKAL
with the conversion factor for converting from a
technology's capacity unit (gigawatts) to its activity unit
(petajoules). The value is 31.536 PJ/GW for all technolo-
gies in this sector.
RESID: Specifies the residual installed technology stock
in place at the beginning of the model horizon and its pro-
jection overtime. 1995 data for this parameter comes from
1995 EIA Form 860 utility data (net summer capability)
and the 1995 Electric Power Annual Volume II, Table 52,
Summary Statistics for U.S. Nonutility Power Producers.
Residual stocks are then assumed to depreciate according
to their technical lifetimes (LIFE parameter).
9.1.7 Electricity Energy Carriers
Twenty energy carriers go to the electricity conversion tech-
nologies. Two of them are universal and go to all sectors:
woody biomass (BIOWD-0) and municipal solid waste
(BSMWX-0). Table 42. lists the other energy carriers.
Table 42. Electric Sector Energy Carriers.
MARKAL
Electricity Generation Energy Carriers
COAEAFB Coal to atmospheric fluidized bed
COAEIGC Coal to integrated gasification combined cycle
COAEMCFC Coal to molten carbide fuel cells
COAECFG Coal to new and repowered coal-fired generation
COAEPFB Coal to pressurized fluidized bed
CSTMBITE Bituminous coal to existing steam electric
CSTMLIGE Lignite to existing steam electric
CSTMSUBE Subbituminous coal to existing steam electric
DSHSTMN Fuel oil to steam electric
DSLEEA Diesel to electricity generation
GEOTHM-0 Geothermal
HYDRO-0 Hydroelectric
METHE Methanol to electricity generation
NGAENSTM NGAa to non-steam electricity generation
NGACLDC Pipeline gas to commercial through LDCs"
NGAEEA NGA to electricity generation after emissions acctng.
NGAESTM NGA to electricity generation
a NGA = natural gas
b LDC = local distribution center
9.1.8 Electricity Emission Accounting
There are 90 "dummy" process technologies used to track
emissions in the electric generation sector. All emissions
tracking process technology names begin with the letters
'SE' followed by a three letter description of the energy
carrier and a several character description of the process
step.
DSL
Diesel going to the electricity generation sector passes
through an initial process technology that tracks CO2, SOX,
PM10, and VOCs. After that it passes through one of two
options for NOX, either an existing NOX emissions or im-
proved NOX control. There is an investment cost associ-
ated with the improved NOX process.
For the diesel naming convention, the 'SE' is followed by
DSL and then 'ELC' for diesel going to the electrical sec-
tor. As shown in Figure 26, there are an additional two
letters for the second pass: 'EN' for existing NOX controls
and 'IN' for improved NOX controls.
DSL
•| SEDSLELCl
DSLEPN
SEDSLELCEN
>| SEDSLELCIN
Figure 26. Diesel (DSL) to Electric Sector Emissions
Accounting RES.
NGA
Similar to diesel, natural gas goes through two processes
to track emissions. The first dummy process tracks CO2,
SOX, PM10, and VOCs. The second dummy process tracks
NOX.
In the naming convention for NGA, the 'SE' is followed
by NGA and then three letters representing the type of tech-
nology: NST for non steam electric and STM for steam
electric. For the second pass there are an additional two
letters: 'EN' for existing NOX controls and 'IN' for im-
proved NOX controls. The RES representations for each of
these fuels are given in Figure 27.
NGA
SENGAELCH-
NGAEEA
SENGANSTIN |-|MP,AFMSTM
SENGANSTEN
SENGASTMIN
SENGASTMEN
NGAESTM
Figure 27. Natural gas (NGA) to Electric Sector Emissions
Accounting RES.
29
-------
DSH
SEDSHELC
iDSHEEA
SEDSHELCES
SEDSHEICIS
DSHEEAS
SEDSHELCEN
SEDSHELCIN
DSHEEAN
Figure 28. Fuel Oil (DSH) to Electric Sector Emissions Accounting RES.
DSH
Fuel oil goes through three dummy processes to track emis-
sions. The first pass tracks CO2, PM10, and VOCs. The sec-
ond process tracks SOX and the third process tracks NOX.
In the naming convention for fuel oil, the 'SE' is followed
by DSH and then ELC representing fuel oil going to elec-
tric. For the second pass, there are two letters: 'ES' for
existing SOX controls and 'IS' for improved SOX controls.
For the third pass, there are an additional two letters: 'EN'
for existing NOX controls and 'IN' for improved NOX con-
trols. The RES representations for each of these fuels are
given in Figure 28.
MTH
As illustrated in Figure 29, methanol passes through one
process technology that tracks all emissions.
MTH
SEMTHE
MTHE
Figure 29. Methanol (MTH) to Electric Sector Emissions
Accounting RES.
NOX, and PM10. The second stage tracks VOCs. All new
plants are assumed to be built with the best emissions re-
ductions processes available.
The first seven characters of the new steam electric tech-
nologies follow the naming convention in Table 43. The
second stage tracks the VOCs by sulfur type, dropping the
sulfur content. Figure 30 represents the RES diagram.
Coal BH,
H SECCFPBH
Coal BL.
SECCFPBL
Coal LH
H SECCFPLHl
Coal LL .
SECCFPLL
Coal LM
HSECCFPUVM
r-l SCCCFP I COACFP,
CCFP.
SCCCFPR
HSCCCFPRN
COACFPR
CoalSL^i
CoalSM»rSECCFPSMl
Figure 30. New Steam Electric Emissions Accounting RES.
Coal
The naming convention for electrical generation from coal
combustion is outlined in Table 43. For example,
SECIGCBL identifies emissions from low sulfur bitumi-
nous coal going through IGCC, and SECPFBLM identi-
fies emissions from medium sulfur lignite coal going
through a pressurized fluid bed.
New Steam Electric Technologies
New steam electric technologies pass through two stages
for emissions tracking. The first stage tracks CO2, SOX,
9.1.9 Constraints
1 Hydro and pumped hydro capacity constrained to ap-
proximate AEO2002 values.
2 Constrained investment in distributed wind, central so-
lar thermal, and photovoltaic to low levels, based on
analysis by in-house researchers and AEO 2002 esti-
mates.
3 Set RESID for existing NUC to AEO 2002 capacity .
4 Growth constraints placed on landfill gas based on AEO
growth rate.
Table 43. Naming Convention for Electric Sector Emissions Tracking.
Name Character Number and Description
1 2 3
Emissions
SEC
4
5 6
Process Type
A
I
M
P
S
C
F B
G C
C F
F B
T M
F P
7
Description
atmospheric fluidized bed
integrated gasification combined cycle
C molten carbon fuel cell
pressurized fluidized bed
existing steam electric
coal-fired power
7/8
Coal
Type
B
L
S
Description
bituminous
lignite
subbituminous
8/9
Sulfur
Content
H
M
L
Description
high
medium
low
30
-------
5 No investment in EDSLCT (DSL combustion turbine)
in 1995.
6 Limited investment in IGCC to AEO2002 levels.
9.2 Conventional LWR Nuclear Technology
9.2.1 Nuclear Data Sources
• OECD,2002.
• Ansolabehere, S. etal., 2003.
• Nuclear Energy Institute: http://www.nei.org/docu-
ments/OM_Costs_l 981_2003 .pdf
• EIA, 1998, Table 10.
• DOE, 2001.
9.2.2 Nuclear RES
The nuclear conversion technology RES, shown in Figure
31, consists of mined uranium, stockpiled spent and de-
pleted uranium, and stockpiled plutonium resource tech-
nologies which feed materials (instead of energy carriers)
into two process technologies—one that enriches the ura-
nium and one for plutonium uranium recovery extraction.
These processes create the materials needed for the reac-
tors. The reactors then output either electricity or spent
materials to be stockpiled.
9.2.3 Nuclear Materials
Mined raw uranium does not have an implicit energy con-
tent (like coal) because it depends on the ultimate level of
enrichment. Different nuclear technologies required ura-
nium enriched to different levels but draw on the same
supply of global raw uranium. As a result, mined uranium,
and the other nuclear resources, must be defined as a mate-
rial with a cost per unit mass rather than per unit energy.
The materials used are:
• MOX - Mixed (Uranium and Plutonium) oxide fuel,
• MOXSPT - Spent MOX fuel,
• MOXWST - Waste from MOX fabrication,
• NURN - mined natural uranium,
• PU - Plutonium,
• U45 - Uranium enriched to 4.5% U-235 for light wa-
ter reactors (LWR),
• URD - Depleted uranium generated during enrichment,
• USPT - Spent fuel from LWRs, and
• UWST - Waste from PUREX process.
9.2.4 Nuclear Parameters
Resource technologies
• MINNURN1 - Extraction of uranium, Step 1.
• MINNURN2 - Extraction of uranium, Step 2.
• MINNURN3 - Extraction of uranium, Step 3.
COST and CUM data taken from OECD, 2002, Page 21,
Table 1.
Stockpiles
Stockpiles are treated like mining processes in that they
have no apparent input when looking at the RES diagram.
The name of the input and output energy or material carri-
ers must be the same. The naming convention for stock-
piles (this must\)Q followed) is:
• First three placeholders: STK,
• Fourth through nineth placeholders: name of outgoing
energy/material carrier, and
• Last placeholder must be a number.
If this naming convention is followed, then the energy/
material carrier with the same name as that outputted by
the stockpile will find its way to the stockpile. Only the
parameter OUT(MAT)r = 1 for URD (Tonne/tonne) is then
UWST
| STKUSPT1 h USPT
Łl PUREX p=.
| MINNURN1 | 1
| MINNURN3| 1
'
| STKPU1 | '
| STKURD1 | 1
NURN
h
H PWST |
MOXSPT
PU MOX r
E| PPUMOX | H ENUCMOXpzi
URD
| EU45LWR95|
| EU45LWR05|
|EU45LWR10| 1
H PMOXSPT |
ELC
USPT
Figure 31. Nuclear RES.
31
-------
defined, otherwise material balance equations will be
wrong.
• STKURD1: Depleted uranium from the enrichment
processes.
• STKPU1: Plutonium recovered from spent uranium.
• STKUSPT1: Spent uranium fuel from LWRs.
Spent uranium can be drawn from the stockpile for Single-
Pass Plutonium Recycling. USPT from EU45LWR95,
EU45LWR05, EU45LWR10 all end up in this stockpile.
Process technologies
PNURNU45: Process technology for uranium enrichment
to 4.5% U235 for LWRs. (Data taken from page 146 of
Ansolabehere, S. et al., 2003.) The parameters for
PNURNU45 are
• INP(MAT)p: This refers to the natural uranium input,
which is the only material put into this process. In the
EPANMD it is equal to 1 tonne/tonne.
• VAROM: Equal to $0.158 million/tonne natural U. All
costs associated with enrichment are included, except
the cost of natural uranium.
The overall cost for conversion, enrichment, and fab-
rication given as
$2.038 x 106/tonneIHMor($2.038 x 106/10.2) = 1.998
x 105$/tonne natural U.
To avoid double counting, the cost of natural (raw)
uranium must be factored out. The cost of raw ura-
nium is given as:
($30/kg U) x (103 kg/1 tonne) = $3.0 x 104 $/tonne
natural U.
So the cost for fabrication minus the cost of electricity
and raw uranium, is:
$1.998 x 105-$3.0x 104 = 0.170 M$/tonne natural U.
In $1995: 0.158 M$/tonne natural U.
• OUT(MAT)p of enriched uranium: 0.098 (tonne/tonne)
• OUT(MAT)p of depleted uranium: 0.902 (tonne/tonne)
Since it takes 10.2 tonnes of natural uranium to make
1 tonne of enriched uranium (4.5% U-235 suitable for
light water reactors —LWRs),
1 tonne IHM /10.2 tonne U = 0.098 = 9.8%
Therefore, the amount of depleted uranium is 90.2%.
PUREX: Plutonium uranium recovery by extraction. This
process recovers 99.9% of the plutonium content from spent
uranium, which is 1.33% by weight. (Data taken from
Ansolabehere, S. et al., 2003, pages 121-122, Figure A-
4.4, and text on bottom of page 122). The parameters for
PUREX are
• INP(MAT)p: 1, refers to USPT (tonne/tonne).
• OUT(MAT)p: 0.0133, refers to PU (tonne/tonne). (See
Deutsch et al., 2003, MOX (mixed oxide) cycle dia-
gram, page 147.) 5.26 kg of spent OX fuel produces
0.07 kg Pu. So, normalized by input, output is 0.07/
5.26 = 0.0133. (This is highly enriched weapons grade
plutonium and, therefore, is regarded unfavorably,
given potential security concerns.)
• OUT(MAT)p: 0.9867, refers to waste from MOX pro-
cessing.
PPUMOX: Fabrication of MOX fuel for LWRs. MOX fab-
rication requires 0.07 kg of plutonium and 5.26 kg of de-
pleted uranium. (Data taken from Ansolabehere, S. et al.,
2003, MOX cycle diagram, page 121 and 147). The pa-
rameters for PPUMOX are
• INP(MAT)p: 0.0131 forPU [calculation: 0.077(0.07 +
5.26) = 0.0131]
• INP(MAT)p: 0.987 for URD [calculation: 5.267(0.07
+ 5.26) = 0.987]. Depleted uranium is required to blend
down the highly enriched plutonium.
• OUT(MAT)p: 1 of fresh MOX (IHM).
• VAROM: 1.266 M$/tonne. According to Ansolabehere,
S. et al., 2003, cost of MOX reprocessing is $8,886/kg
of fresh MOX fuel. In the MIT (Ansolabehere, S. et
al., 2003) report, no distinction in costs made between
PUREX and MOX fabrication, so all costs for MOX
production included here. In MARKAL units,
($8886/kg)x(l tonne/103 kg)x(l m$/$106) = 8.886 M$/
tonne.
The credit for the storage and disposal fee associated
with once-through spent uranium is (-0.310 M$/tonne).
The storage and disposal fee for once-through spent
uranium was already assessed at PNURNU45, and so
it must be subtracted here to avoid double counting.)
The net cost is:
8.886 - 0.310 = 8.576 M$/tonne.
In$1995:7.975M$/tonne.
PWST: Dummy process for disposal of waste from PUREX
process. The parameter for PWST is
• INP(MAT)p: 1 for UWST (tonne/tonne)
32
-------
PMOXSPT: Dummy process for disposal of waste from
ENUCMOX. The parameter for PMOXSPT is
• INP(MAT)p: 1 for MOXSPT (tonne/tonne)
Nuclear reactors
EU45LWR95: Pre-Existing Conventional Nuclear (LWR).
This technology only exists as residual capacity. Data taken
from
• Nuclear Energy Institute: http://www.nei.org/docu-
ments/OM_Costs_198 l_2003.pdfAverage O&M from
1999-2003 is 0.0135 $/kWh,
• Ansolabehere, S. et al, 2003, Table A-5.C.2, page 44,
and
• EIA (1998), Table 10, page 30.
The parameters for EU45LWR95 are
• VAROM: 3.48 M$/PJ: O&M costs are not broken
down into fixed and variable and are given in cents /
kWh (MIT, NEI, and EIA). Since NEI data were ex-
pressed as an annual average instead of by quartiles,
annual averages were averaged to obtain a rough aver-
age composite over last 5 years:
5 year average O&M for existing nuclear = ($0.0135/
kWh) x (277.78 kWh/GJ) x (106GJ/1 PJ) =3.75 M$/
PJ.
In$1995:3.48M$/PJ.
• IBOND(BD): 0: This insures no new capacity will be
built.
• RESID: It is assumed that existing nuclear capacity
remains constant at -100 GW (99 GW in 2003) over
the model horizon. This is a reasonable assumption
because retirements (3% by 2025) will be roughly com-
pensated by uprating of other existing plants. See EIA,
2004, page 70, Figure 69.
• AF: 85%. In recent years, capacity factor at existing
nuclear plants has been roughly 85-90%, and this per-
formance is expected to continue over the next 20 years.
See EIA, 2004, page 70 and EIA Annual Energy Re-
view 2004, page 270, Figure 9.2 (bottom right).
• INP(MAT)c: 0.701 for U45. Tonnes of enriched ura-
nium (MTIHM) required to produce 1 PJ of electric-
ity. According to Ansolabehere, S. et al., 2003, page
117, the average burnup of U.S. LWRs is currently 50
GWd/MTIHM (metric tonne initial heavy metal).
(50 GWd/1 MTIHM) x (1 x 10s kW/1 GW) x (24 hours/
1 day) x (1 GJ/277.78 kWh) x (1 PJ/1Q6 GJ) = 4.32
PJ/MTIHM = 0.231 MTIHM/PJ.
But this is thermal energy, so electrical output, assum-
ing a thermal efficiency of 33%, 0.231/0.33 = 0.7
MTIHM/PJ.
• AF_TID: 0.4162
• OUT(ELC)_TID: 1. Simply specifies that this con-
version technology produces electricity.
• OUT(MAT)c: 0.701. Material output per unit of elec-
tricity produced (tonnes/petajoule). The fissioning of
uranium produces spent uranium (URNSPT), which
consists of several material byproducts. The conver-
sion of mass into energy through fission is neglected,
since the mass of the spent fuel is only 0.0047% less
than the initial heavy metal.
To determine the composition of spent fuel from LWRs,
use Ansolabehere, S. et al., 2003, page 120, Table A-
4.1. Spent Fuel Composition:
U (all isotopes) 93.4%
Fissionable products (FP)=5.15%
Pu=1.33%
Minor Actinides (MA) = 0.12%
Since 0.7 MTIHM are required to produce 1
PJ of electricity:
U = 0.934x0.7 = 0.6538 tonnes/PJ
FP = 0.0515x0.7 = 0.03605 tonnes/PJ
Pu = 0.0133x0.7 = 0.00931 tonnes/PJ
MA = 0.0012x0.7 = 0.00084 tonnes/PJ
LIFE = 40 years.
Start =1995.
EU45LWR05: New conventional nuclear (LWR) technol-
ogy available in 2005. Parameters are the same as
EU45LWR95, except
• FIXOM: 58.6 M$/GW
• VAROM:0.13M$/PJ
($0.00047/kWh) x (277.78 kWh/GJ) x (106 GJ/PJ) x
(1M$/$106) = 0.13M$/PJ
• INVCOST: 1860 m$/GW; START = 2005
• INVBLOCK: 0.8 GW (lower bound on capacity).
Costs were taken from Ansolabehere, S. et al., 2003,
page 135, Table A-5.A.4. All costs discounted to 1995$.
EU45LWR10: Advanced nuclear (LWR) technology avail-
able in 2010. Costs were taken from DOE (2001), pages
71-75. Parameters are the same as EU45LWR95, except
• AF: 90%
• VAROM: 1.29MS/PJ (includes all O&M)
($0.005/kWh) x (277.78 kWh/GJ) x (106 GJ/PJ) x (1
m$/$106)=1.39M$/PJ
In $1995: 1.29M$/PJ
33
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• INVCOST: 1340MS/GW
According to DOE (2001), 1440 M$/GW.
In $1995: 1340 M$/GW.
• INVBLOCK: 0.8 GW (lower bound on capacity)
• START: 2005
• INP(MAT)c: 0.651. Tons of enriched uranium
(MTIHM) required to produce 1 PJ of electricity. Ac-
cording to Ansolabehere, S. et al., 2003, page 117, the
average burnup of U.S. LWRs is currently 50 GWd/
MTIHM (metric tonne initial heavy metal).
(50 GWd/1 MTIHM) x (1 x 106kW/l GW) x (24 hours/
1 day) x (1 GJ/277.78 kWh) x (1 PJ/1Q6 GJ) = 4.32
PJ/MTIHM = 0.231 MTIHM/PJ.
But this is thermal energy, so electrical output, assum-
ing athermal efficiency of 35%, 0.231 / 0.355 = 0.651
MTIHM/PJ.
• OUT(MAT)c:0.651tonne/PJ.
ENUCMOX: New MOX nuclear technology. Identical to
EU45LWR05, but accepts MOX as input fuel and output
is MOXSPT rather than USPT There appears to be no ap-
preciable difference in cost or performance between LWRs
operating on UOX or MOX.
Note that the separated uranium could theoretically be re-
processed for plutonium extraction also. As of 2002, no-
where in the world is MOX fuel reprocessed, in part due to
the isotopic composition of plutonium in spent MOX. It is
possible that MOX recycling could take place in the fu-
ture, but very little cost data exist with any operational
experience. See Ansolabehere, S. et al., 2003, page 129.
10 Demand Technologies and End-
Use Demands
There are four major demand sectors represented in the
model: Residential, Commercial, Transportation, and In-
dustrial. The end-use demands along with the technolo-
gies to meet these demands are described in each sector.
10.1 Demand Sector Parameters
10.1.1 Availability and Utilization Parameters
• CF: Specifies the maximum capacity utilization of a
technology (i.e., the maximum fraction of the year in
which the technology may operate).
• IBOND(BD): Specifies a user imposed bound on in-
vestment in new capacity.
• LIFE: Specifies the lifetime of a technology in years.
• START: The start year specifies the first time period
of availability of a technology within the model time
horizon.
10.1.2 Efficiency and Cost Parameters
• EFF: Specifies the efficiency of a technology where
efficiency is measured as units of end-use demand sat-
isfied per unit of input energy carrier consumed.
• INVCOST: Specifies the cost of investment in one
incremental unit of new capacity.
• FIXOM: Specifies the fixed operating and mainte-
nance (O&M) costs for a technology.
• VAROM: Specifies the annual variable (or running)
operating and maintenance costs such as technology
repairs.
10.1.3 Input and Output Parameters
• MA(ENT): Specifies the amount of each energy car-
rier that is input to a demand technology.
• OUT(DM): Specifies the end-use demand (DM) ser-
viced by the technology and is expressed as units of
end-use demand satisfied per unit of demand technol-
ogy activity.
10.1.4 Other MARKAL Parameters
• CAPUNIT: Specifies the conversion factor between
units of activity and units of capacity. The value for all
Demand technologies is 1.0.
• RESID: Specifies the residual capacity in each model
year for technology stock already existing at the be-
ginning of the modeling horizon (1995). Having been
installed before the model start year, the investment
cost is assumed to have already been expended on this
pre-existing capacity.
• DISCRATE: Specifies user defined technology-spe-
cific discount rates (hurdle rates) to represent a reluc-
tance to invest.
10.1.5 Constraints
• RAT_RHS: Specifies the right hand side (RHS) co-
efficient of a constraint equation and the relationship
type (i.e., >, =, or <).
• RAT_ACT: Specifies the left hand side coefficient
forthe specified process technology's activity variable.
• RAT_CAP: Specifies the left hand side coefficient for
the specified conversion, process, or demand
technology's capacity variable.
34
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10.1.6 Electricity Generation "Only" Technology
Parameters
• AF: Specifies the total annual availability of a tech-
nology in each period.
• AF_TID: Specifies the fraction of the total unavail-
ability of a technology that is forced outage.
• AF(Z)(Y): Specifies the availability for technologies
whose availabilities vary by season (Z) and time-of-
day (Y). The availability accounts for both forced and
scheduled outages in each time division. In MARKAL,
Z refers to season, S = summer, I = intermediate (spring
and autumn), and W = winter, and Y refers to time-of-
day, D = day, and N = night. AF(Z)(Y) is a fraction
calculated as the hours of availability in the specified
season and time-of-day divided by the total hours in
the specified season and time-of-day.
• CF(Z)(Y): Specifies the capacity utilization rate of a
fixed capacity utilization technology in each season
(Z) and time-of-day (Y). The utilization rate applies to
fixed capacity utilization technologies that can have
seasonal or diurnal variations in capacity utilization
such as cogeneration plants. It is generally measured
as the average of the utilization for each season and
time-of-day division in each year over the period.
• PEAK(CON): Specifies the fraction of a generation
technology's capacity that can be counted on to be
available to meet peak demand and reserve margin re-
quirements, based on its availability, reliability, and
other considerations.
• INP(ENT)c: The heat rate. Specifies the amount of
energy input needed to produce one unit of electricity
output.
• INP(ENC)_TID: Specifies the initial fuel core require-
ments for nuclear power plants expressed as units of
the energy carrier per unit of the technology capacity.
• OUT(ELC)_TID: Specifies that electricity is produced
by the technology. The value of 1 indicates that each
technology only produces electricity.
10.2 Residential Sector
The residential sector consists of demands technologies
needed to meet residential demands for space heating and
cooling, cooking, refrigeration, water heating, lighting, and
various other energy use technologies.
10.2.1 Residential Data Sources
Data for most residential sector technologies was taken
from EIA, 2002e. Data for existing capital stocks of these
technologies was taken from NEMS Vintage Program data
for the AEO 2002 Reference Case Tables and Technology
Files for the Building Sector, also provided by John
Cymbalsky. Data for lighting technologies was retained
from the 1997 DOE MARKAL database.
Additional data sources include:
• EIA 2002e Table 4: Residential Sector Key Indicators
and Consumption,
• EIA 2002e Table 21: Residential Sector Equipment
Stock and Efficiency, and
• EIA 2002c: Residential Sector Key Indicators and As-
sumptions.
10.2.2 Residential Assumptions
1. Technology specific hurdle rates (DISCRATE param-
eter) have been applied differentially to base and ad-
vanced technologies to simulate the consumer's reluc-
tance to purchase newer technology.
2.Heating technologies (space heating and water heat-
ing) fuel use splits have been implemented to be equiva-
lent in 2000 to the AEO 2002, with a 3% relaxation
rate each subsequent time period.
3. A growth rate constraint (GROWTH parameter) of 10%
has been applied to gas heat pumps to limit the rate of
penetration (based on AEO 2000 Table 4 2000-2020
growth rate).
4. The capacity of various heating and cooling technolo-
gies is assumed to be the following (based on input
from Jim Cymbalsky of EIA):
• Radiators and furnaces 50000 btu/hr
• Heat pumps 36000 btu/hr
• Room air conditioners 10000 btu/hr
• Central air 36000 btu/hr
5.The model assumes that for solar water heaters solar
energy provides 55% of the energy needed to satisfy
hot water demand, and the remaining 45% is satisfied
by an electric back-up unit.
10.2.3 Residential RES
The Residential Sector RES, Figure 32, consists of demand
technologies that are capable of meeting end-use demands.
All energy carriers going to the Residential Sector pass
through an emissions tracking "dummy" process technol-
ogy on the front end of the demand technology.
10.2.4 Residential End- Use Demands
The residential sector's eight end-use demands, listed in
Table 44, are derived from Table A4 of EIA, 2002d, and
Table 21 of EIA, 2002e. Demand values are listed in Table
45. Overall, residential heating (RH) constitutes the larg-
est demand, followed by residential cooling (RC), miscel-
35
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constraints
v
| Process Technologies) J^ffi^ [Demand Technologies] ^[f^l End-Use Demands |
carriers
emissions
Figure 32. Residential Sector RES.
laneous electric (RME), and residential water heating (RW).
RC and RME have the largest growth rates (177% and
194%, respectively) within the modeling period, while RF
has the smallest increase (15%) among all residential de-
mands.
Table 44. Residential Sector End-Use Demands.
Name Definition
RC Residential cooling
RF Residential freezers
RH Residential heating
RL Residential lighting
RME Residential miscellaneous electric
RMG Residential miscellaneous gas
RR Residential refrigeration
RW Residential water heating
Table 46. shows the calculation of residential demands ac-
cording to various AEO tables. These calculations yield
(except for lighting) service demands matching the AEO
2002 time horizon: every year from 2000-2020. Values
for 2000 and 2020 were each used for the corresponding
MARKAL model years. Values for MARKAL model years
2005, 2010, and 2015 are five-year averages of the AEO
calculated demands, centered on the corresponding model
years. For example, for the year 2005, the average of 2003
through 2007 was taken. Values for 1995 and years be-
yond 2020 were extrapolated. For 1995, the percent change
for years 2000 through 2005 was calculated and used to
adjust 1995 down from 2000. For 2025-2035, the percent
change was calculated for 2015-2020 and adjusted by time
Table 45. Residential Sector Demand Values in the EPANMD.
Demand Units 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
RC
RF
RH
RL
RME
RMG
RR
RW
PJ
million units/yr
PJ
PJ
PJ
PJ
million units/yr
PJ
1586
34
4325
473
1498
375
114
1182
1792
34
4699
503
1879
404
119
1242
2024
34
5106
602
2358
435
124
1305
2285
34
5314
638
2656
449
130
1371
2604
34
5536
672
2969
467
136
1436
2969
35
5823
694
3275
486
142
1504
3384
37
6126
716
3613
505
148
1574
3858
38
6443
740
3985
524
155
1648
4398
39
6778
764
4396
545
162
1725
Table 46. Residential Demand Calculations.
Demand Source Units
Comments
RC
RF
RH
RL
RME
RMG
RR
RW
EIA, 2002d, Table A4
EIA, 2002e, Table 21
EIA, 2002e, Table 21:
Total Technology
Stock
EIA, 2002d, Table A4
EIA, 2002e, Table 21
1998 DOE MARKAL
EIA, 1998, Table A4
EIA, 2002d, Table A4
EIA, 2002d, Table A4
Delivered Energy
Consumption
EIA, 2002d, Table A4
Delivered Energy
Consumption
EIA, 2002e, Table 21:
Total Technology
Stock
EIA, 2002d, Table A4
EIA, 2002e, Table 21
PJ
million
units/yr
PJ
PJ
PJ
PJ
million
units/yr
PJ
Ł (delivered energy consumption for fuel / and technology ij •/. stock average equipment efficiency /
j)x PJ/1015Btu
Ł (delivered energy consumption for fuel / and technology i j x stock average equipment efficiency /
j)x PJ/1015Btu
This demand has been updated from the 1998 DOE MARKAL database by applying the ratio of
electricity consumption for lighting from EIA, 2002d, Table 4 to that from EIA, 1998, Table 4 as a
multiplier.
Includes cooking, clothes washing and drying, dishwashing, television, computers, fans, and other
Includes cooking, clothes drying, and other
Water heater stock (million units) x average end-use energy service provision per water heater
(11.87PJ)
36
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period. The 1995 value for lighting was taken directly from
the 1997 DOE MARKAL database.
10.2.5 Residential Demand Technologies
Demand technologies consume fuels (energy carriers) to
meet the end-use demands. Examples of end-use technolo-
gies in the residential sector include air conditioners, freez-
ers, clothes washers, and water heaters.
There are 155 demand technologies in the residential sec-
tor, broken down into 8 sub-categories. Within each sub-
category are different technologies powered by a variety
of energy carriers with different efficiency levels. The sub-
categories are:
Space Heating 63
Space Cooling 35
Water Heating 35
Refrigeration 10
Freezers 7
Lighting 3
Miscellaneous - Gas 1
Miscellaneous - Electric 1
Table 47. Residential End-Use Technology Naming
Convention.
Category
1 2/28.3
Sector Category
R H
C
W
L
R
F
ME
MG
3&4/4&S
Numbered
listing
01
Description
heating
cooling
water heating
lighting
refrigeration
freezing
miscellaneous - electric
miscellaneous - gas
The naming convention for residential end-use technolo-
gies is outlined in Table 47, and examples are:
RH01 space heating, electric furnace, existing
RH27 space heating, gas radiator #2-2010
RC05 space cooling, room a/c #2 - 2020
RW23 water heating, distillate #2-1995
RR03 refrigeration # 1 - 2005
RF01 freezing, existing
RLO1 Incandescent lighting
RMEO1 Miscellaneous electric
Heat pumps service two kinds of demands—heating and
cooling—and have different efficiencies and capacity fac-
tors for each of those demands. Therefore, two technolo-
gies were created to model each heat pump. For example,
RH04 is the 1995 typical electric heat pump for heating,
and RC19 is the 1995 typical electric heat pump for cool-
ing. The technologies are linked by constraints that force
the model to invest in the appropriate amount of one when
it buys the other. Capital costs for all heat pumps for cool-
ing have been set to zero to avoid double counting.
10.2.6 Residential Process Technologies
There are five process technologies in the residential sec-
tor. Four of them are used for emissions accounting and
will be explained later. The other one is used to represent
the distribution of natural gas through a local distribution
company.
PNGALDCR = NGA to residential through LDCs
A natural gas local distribution company does not earn a
profit on the buying and reselling of the natural gas itself.
An LDC is allowed to earn a fair return on the money that
the LDC has invested in the system that delivers the gas to
customers. Therefore, PNGALDCRhas an investment cost
(INVCOST) associated with it as well as variable operat-
ing and maintenance costs (VAROM).
10.2.7 Residential Parameters
This section describes the parameters used to characterize
residential demand and process technologies in MARKAL
and the calculations required to transform source data into
MARKAL form. This is a summary of all parameters used
and not meant to indicate that all technologies have each
of these parameters in their description.
Units
As detailed in Table 48, all costs are expressed in millions
of 1995 dollars. Energy quantities are expressed in
petajoules, with the exception of refrigerators and freez-
ers, which are expressed in terms of million units.
AEO 2002 Residential Technology Equipment Type
Description file (Res Tech File)
Table 48. Residential Sector Cost and Efficiency Units.
MARKAL Category Technology Units
INVCOST
EFF
Refrigerators
Freezers
All others
Refrigerators
Freezers
All others
95million$/million units
95million$/million units
95million$/PJ/annum
million units x yr/PJ
million units x yr/PJ
PJ/PJ
37
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This AEO Residential Demand Module file (EIA, 2002e)
represents a "menu" of efficiency levels and installed cost
combinations by technology type projected by year avail-
able. Installed costs given represent the capital cost of the
equipment plus the cost to install it, excluding any finance
costs. The efficiency measurements vary by equipment
type. Electric heat pumps and central air conditioners are
rated for cooling performance using the Seasonal Energy
Efficiency Ratio (SEER); natural gas furnaces are based
on Annual Fuel Utilization Efficiency; room air condition-
ers are based on Energy Efficiency Ratio (EER); refrigera-
tors are based on kilowatt-hours per year; and water heat-
ers are based on energy factor (delivered Btu divided by
input Btu).
Availability and utilization parameters
CF: These values were retained from the 1997 DOE
MARKAL database. The values are as follows:
Heating
Cooling
Water Heating
Refrigeration
Freezing
Lighting
= 0.16
= 0.15
= 0.10
= 1.00
= 1.00
= 1.00
Most lights are not used 100% of the time, but the costs for
lighting in MARKAL are based on the life of a light bulb
which is directly related to when the light bulb is on.
IBOND(BD): Specifies a user imposed bound on invest-
ment in new capacity. This parameter has been used to place
an upper bound of zero, preventing investment in new ca-
pacity, for all technologies past the "Last year" value speci-
fied in the Res Tech File. This "Last year" is the year be-
yond which the technology in question becomes obsolete.
For example, when the efficiency of a particular heat pump
is improved and introduced to the market, the less efficient
version is no longer available. It has also been used to pre-
vent investment in new capacity for all "existing" tech-
nologies which represent residual installed capacity at the
beginning of the model horizon. An example of how this
parameter is used is given in Table 49.
LIFE: Specifies the lifetime of a technology in years. The
values for this parameter, listed in Table 50. were retained
from the 1997 DOE MARKAL database.
Table 50. Residential Sector LIFE Values.
MARKAL Demand
RC
RF
RH
RH
RL
RR
RW
Technology
all
all
heat pumps
all others
all
all
all
Life
(yr)
15
15
15
30
15
15
10
START: For all technologies except lighting technologies,
data for this parameter came from the Res. Tech. File (EIA,
2002e). Lighting data was taken directly from the 1997
DOE MARKAL database.
Efficiency and cost parameters
EFF: For all technologies except lighting, data for this pa-
rameter came from the Res. Tech. File (EIA, 2002e).
For RC, RH, and RW: The AEO efficiency data are pro-
vided in units of British thermal units output per British
thermal units input. These values are converted MARKAL
units of petajoules out per petajoules in.
For RR and RF: The efficiency is given in units of kilo-
watt-hour per year per unit, which are converted to million
units per year per petajoule.
For RL: Data were taken directly from the 1997 DOE
MARKAL database.
INVCOST: For all technologies except lighting, data for
this parameter came directly from the Res. Tech. File (EIA,
2002e).
Table 49. Residential Sector IBOND Example.
MARKAL MARKAL Description Last Year 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
RH03
RH04
RH06
RH07
space heating, electric
heat pump, existing
space heating, electric
heat pump #1, 1995
space heating, electric
heat pump #2, 1995
space heating, electric
heat pump #2, 2010
1995 000000
2005
2005
2019
000
000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
38
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For RC and RH: The Res. Tech. File lists capital costs in
2001 dollars per unit and capacity per unit in British ther-
mal units per hour. The capital costs were divided by the
capacities and the results converted to millions of 1995
dollars per petajoule.
INVCOST = Capital Cost/Capacity
For RW: For each of the water heater fuel types (electric,
NGA, diesel, and LPG), the energy output (in petajoules)
per million units was calculated using the fuel specific en-
ergy consumption found in EIA, 2002d, Table A-4, Resi-
dential Sector Key Indicators and Consumption, and the
fuel specific stock average efficiency and total stock units
found in EIA, 2002e, Table 21. Those values were used to
calculate a stock-weighted average annual useful energy
service output in petajoules. The investment cost was then
calculated by dividing the capital costs in 2001 dollars per
unit found in the Res. Tech. File (EIA, 2002e) by the
weighted average annual useful energy service and then
multiplying by a water heater Capacity Factor of 0.1.
INVCOST = Capital Cost + Average Annual Useful
Energy Service x Capacity Factor
For RR and RF: The Res. Tech. File (EIA, 2002e) lists
capital costs in 2001 dollars per unit, which were converted
to millions of 1995 dollars per unit.
For RL: Lighting data were taken directly from the 1997
DOE MARKAL database.
VAROM: In the residential sector, VAROM is only speci-
fied for lighting technologies, and the values used were
taken directly from the 1997 DOE MARKAL database.
Input and output parameters
MA(ENT): In the residential sector, most technologies only
use one energy carrier, and therefore MA(ENT) is equal to
1.0. Solar water heaters, the exception, have a solar energy
input and an electricity backup. For those technologies,
MA(ENT) for solar energy is 0.55 (55% of total energy
input) and MA(ENT) for electricity is 0.45 (45% of total
energy input).
OUT(DM): For the residential sector, these units are
petajoules per petajoule. For all residential demand tech-
nologies, all of the energy activity of the technology con-
tributes to a single end-use demand, and therefore
OUT(DM) equals 1.0.
Other MARKAL parameters
CAPUNIT: The value for all residential technologies is
1.0.
RESID: Specifies the residual capacity in each model year
for technology stock already existing at the beginning of
the modeling horizon (1995). Having been installed be-
fore the model start year, the investment cost is assumed to
have already been expended and is therefore not included
in the model.
For RC, RH, RR, RF, and RW: Data for residual capacity
and average efficiency of residual capacity were taken from
the Vintage Program data for the AEO 2002 Reference Case
Tables and Technology Files for Building Sector. These
give surviving capacities from historical model years and
the average efficiency of shipments in each model year.
Five-year averages were taken around each MARKAL
model year for years 1995 through 2025. (For distillate
heaters, the Vintage Program data are inconsistent with EIA
2002e, Table 21 data. Vintage Program data show 4.4 mil-
lion distillate furnaces and 21 million distillate radiators in
1995, while Table 21 shows 9.04 million combined distil-
late units in 2000. The Vintage Program stocks for distil-
late radiators have been reduced by 75 percent to account
for this discrepancy.)
ForRL: RESID values were retained from the 1997 DOE
MARKAL database.
10.2.8 Residential Energy Carriers
Eight fuels go directly to the residential sector end-use tech-
nologies as indicated in Table 51. Three of the fuels—elec-
tricity (ELC), solar (SOLAR), and biomass (BIOWD-0)—
are universal and go to all sectors. For the other five, the
first three letters of the name refer to the fuel type, the
fourth letter is an 'R' for Residential, and the final letters
indicate the path: EA is after Emissions Accounting and
LDC is after passing through LDC (NGA only).
Table 51. Residential Sector Energy Carriers.
Name
Definition
ELC Electricity
BIOWD-0 Biomass
SOLAR-0 Solar
DSLREA Diesel to residential after emissions accounting
KERREA Kerosene to residential after emissions accountin
LPGREA LPG to residential after emissions accountin
NGAREA NGA to residential after emissions accountin
NGARLDC NGA to residential through LDCs
39
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10.2.9 Residential Emissions Accounting
All fuels with residential-specific emission factors pass
through a "dummy" process technology which tracks emis-
sions from a particular fuel type going to residential de-
mand technologies. There are no costs associated with these
"technologies". They simply have an incoming energy car-
rier and an outgoing energy carrier. There are four of these
for the residential sector. As delineated in Table 52, the
first two letters in the names of these process technologies
are 'SE' for Emissions. The last three letters are 'RES' for
residential. The letters in-between represent the fuel type.
The emissions data assumptions and calculations are ex-
plained in Section 11.
Table 52. Residential Emissions "Dummy" Process
Technologies.
Name Definition
SEDSLRES Emissions: Diesel to residential
SEKERRES Emissions: kerosene to residential
SELPGRES Emissions: LPG to residential
SENGARES Emissions: NGAto residential
10.2.3 Residential Constraints
There are twenty-one constraints in the residential sector
that are used to tie together the two separate technologies
that were created to describe each heat pump, one technol-
ogy for space heating and one technology for space cool-
ing. The cooling capacity of specific heat pump technol-
ogy is subtracted from the heating capacity of the same
heat pump with the fixed result of zero. This ensures that
if a technology is invested in for cooling, it will also be
used for heating. These constraints are absolute constraints
and are named A_RHP 1 through A_RHP21.
Table 53. Residential Space and Water Heating Fuel Splits.
AEO 2002 Table A4 Residential Sector Key
Indicators and Consumption
Delivered Energy Consumption by Fuel
2000 2000
Space Heating
Electricity
Natural Gas
Distillate
Liquid Petroleum Gas
Biomass
Other
Total
Water Heating
Electricity 0.41 0.2103
Natural Gas 1.32 0.6769
Distillate 0.12 0.0615
Liquid Petroleum Gas 0.1 0.0513
Total 1.95
(Quads)
0.42
3.44
0.7
0.33
0.43
0.13
5.45
(%)
0.0771
0.6312
0.1284
0.0606
0.0789
0.0239
There are twelve constraints in the residential sector used
to apply specific fuel use splits to heating and water heat-
ing technologies. The initial fuel use splits were taken from
the EIA, 2002d, Table A4: Delivered Energy Consump-
tion by Fuel and are listed in Table 53. Splits are relaxed
over time to allow the model more variation in technolo-
gies to choose from.
These constraints are share splits so the name begins with
S_. The second letter in the constraint name reflects the
technology sector, which in this case is 'R' for 'Residen-
tial'. The third letter represents the technology type, and
the 4th—7th letters represent the energy carrier. The fuel
split constraints are listed in Table 54.
Table 54. Residential Space and Water Heating
Constraints.
Name Definition
S_RHBIT Biomass fuel split - heating
S_RHELC Electricity fuel split - heating
S_RHGAS Gas fuel split - heating
S_RHLPG LPG fuel split-heating
S_RHOIL Oil fuel split - heating
S_RHOTH Other fuel split - heating
S_RWBIT Biomass fuel split - water heating
S_RWELC Electricity fuel split - water heating
S_RWGAS Gas fuel split - water heating
S_RWLPG LPG fuel split - water heating
S_RWOIL Oil fuel split - water heating
S_RHOTH Other fuel split - water heating
10.3 Commercial Sector
The commercial sector includes businesses not engaged in
manufacturing, transportation, agriculture, mining, con-
struction, or other industrial activity.
10.3.1 Commercial Data Sources
Data for commercial sector technologies was taken from
the AEO 2002 Commercial Technology Cost and Perfor-
mance File (EIA, 2002f) for the Commercial Model, pro-
vided by Erin Boedecker of the Energy Information Ad-
ministration. AEO 2002 commercial sector service demand
reports were also used to characterize 1995 residual tech-
nology stocks.
10.3.2 Commercial Assumptions
1.Technology-specific discount rates, or hurdle rates,
(DISCRATE parameter) have been applied differen-
tially to base and advanced technologies.
2. All installed technologies are BOUND to force RESID
to be used.
3.Heating technologies (space heating and water heat-
ing) fuel splits have been implemented to be equiva-
40
-------
constraints
Energy ^| Process Technologies] ^^^l Demand Technologies] ^1^ »| End-Use Demands |
Demissions
Figure 33. Commercial Sector RES.
lent in 2000 to the AEO 2002, with a 3% relaxation
rate each subsequent time period.
10.3.3 Commercial RES
The Commercial Sector RES, illustrated in Figure 33, con-
sists of demand technologies that are capable of meeting
end-use demands. All energy carriers going to the Com-
mercial Sector pass through an emissions tracking
"dummy" process technology on the front end of the de-
mand technology.
10.3.4 Commercial End- Use Demands
The commercial sector is characterized by thirteen end-
use demand technologies. Table 55 lists the end-use de-
mands in the EPANMD.
Table 55. Commercial Sector End-Use Demands.
The commercial demands are derived from the AEO 2002
NEMS Commercial Sector Demand module output file
'KSDOUT. Demand values are listed in Table 56. Over-
all, commercial lighting (CL) constitutes the largest de-
mand, followed by miscellaneous electric (CME) and com-
mercial cooling (CC).
Demand calculations
Each row of the KSDOUT file contains the forecast of ser-
vice demand for each year of the NEMS forecast period
(1996-2020) that is satisfied by a particular type of equip-
ment, for a particular service, in a particular area. The area
data covers the 9 census divisions and data for national
totals (Area 11). For our demands, we used the national
data. Table 57 shows a small portion of the output file.
To calculate the demand, service demand data by service
Name
Definition
CC Commercial space cooling
CE Commercial computer and office equipment
CH Commercial space heating
CK Commercial cooking
CL Commercial lighting
CMD Commercial miscellaneous - Diesel
SME Commercial miscellaneous - electric
CMG Commercial miscellaneous - gas
CML Commercial miscellaneous - LPG
CMR Commercial miscellaneous - residual fuel
CR Commercial refrigeration
CV Commercial ventilation
CW Commercial water heating
iype anu
energy c
arner wa
is summe
u up oy year, ine ue-
mands for each year (2005-2020) were then converted to
MARKAL units using the conversion factors listed in Table
58.
Demands by MARKAL model time horizon
The above calculations yield service demands matching
the AEO 2002 time horizon for every year from 2000-
2020. Values for 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020 were
each used for the corresponding MARKAL model years.
For 1995, the percent change for years 2000 through 2005
was calculated and used to adjust 1995 down from 2000.
Table 56. Commercial Sector Demand Values.
Demands Units
CC
CE
CH
CK
CL
CMD
CME
CMG
CML
CMR
CR
CV
CW
PJ
PJ
PJ
PJ
PJ
PJ
PJ
PJ
PJ
PJ
PJ
PJ
PJ
1995
1246
358
1189
125
1799
57
938
896
89
172
235
63
544
2000
1383
499
1248
138
1977
73
1105
1049
88
145
258
70
602
2005
1535
702
1329
151
2187
93
1302
1228
87
122
282
77
667
2010
1665
885
1390
162
2362
95
1572
1324
93
129
301
84
724
2015
1799
1056
1450
174
2546
96
1885
1450
99
137
319
91
783
2020
1927
1196
1506
185
2719
98
2215
1625
105
141
335
98
840
2025
2065
1363
1564
197
2905
100
2603
1821
111
145
352
106
901
2030
2213
1561
1624
210
3103
102
3058
2041
118
149
370
114
967
2035
2371
1799
1686
224
3314
104
3594
2287
125
154
389
123
1037
41
-------
Table 57. Sample portion of KSDOUT.
Area Service Energy
Type
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
11a Heating Electric New Heat Pump Current
11 Heating Electric Replacement Heat Pump Current
11 Heating Electric Retrofit Heat Pump Current
1 1 Heating Electric New Heat Pump Typical
1 1 Heating Electric Replacement Heat Pump Typical
1 1 Heating Electric Retrofit Heat Pump Typical
11 Heating Electric New Heat Pump High Eff.
11 Heating Electric Replacement Heat Pump High Eff.
11 Heating Electric Retrofit Heat Pump High Eff.
a Area 1 1 is the National totals in KSDOUT.
Table 58. Commercial Sector Conversion Factors.
Conversion Multiply Demand by
PJperQBTU 1055.056
Normalization of Btu per ftVmin 1 .87530075
Normalization of watts perlumin 0.01726873
PJ per billion watt hours 31.536
For 2025-2035, the percent change was calculated for 2015-
2020 and adjusted by time period.
10.3.5 Commercial Demand Technologies
There are 328 end-use technologies in the commercial sec-
tor, broken down into 12 sub-categories. Within each sub-
category are different technologies powered by a variety
of energy carriers at different efficiency levels. The sub-
categories are:
Space Heating 50
Space Cooling 80
Cooking 4
Water Heating 22
Refrigeration 79
Ventilation 53
Lighting 35
Office and Computer Equip.
Miscellaneous - Diesel
Miscellaneous - Electric
Miscellaneous - LPG
Miscellaneous - Residual Fuel
The naming convention for the commercial sector end-use
technologies is outlined in Table 59. The following are
examples of commercial end-use technology names:
CC01 Air Source heat pump for cooling - Installed
base
CC08 Air Source heat pump for cooling - 20 1 0 high
CK02 Range, Electric-induction, 4 burner, oven
CH 1 0 Air source heat pump for heating - 2020 high
CW2 1 Oil water heater - Installed base
CL01 Incandescent 1150 lumens, 75 watts
CR04 Central Rfg. Sys. w/ Ambient Subcooling
CV25 VAV 30,000 fWmin Systme - 1995 High
0.586 0.616 0.605 0.634 0.632
1.8 1.831 1.654 1.731 1.751
0.83 3.707 6.077 8.094 9.977
00000
00000
00000
0 0 0.032 0.034 0.033
0 0 0.221 0.147 0.176
0 0 0.291 0.683 0.985
Table 59. Commercial Sector End-Use Technology Naming
Convention.
•
unaraciers
2/3 Remaining npsrrintinn
Sector Category "»™*™«
I_I9UIIIJ
C C 01 cooling
1
K cooking
H heating
W water heating
L lighting
R refrigeration
V ventilation
MD misc. - Diesel
ME misc. - electric
MG misc. - gas
ML misc. -LPG
I
MR misc. ~ r@sidudl tU6l
Heat pumps service two kinds of demands — heating and
cooling — and have different efficiencies and capacity fac-
tors for each of those demands. Therefore, two technolo-
gies were created to model each heat pump. For example,
CC03
is the 2000 typical air source heat pump for cooling,
and CH03 is the 2000 typical air source heat pump for
heating. The technologies are linked by constraints that
force the model to invest in the appropriate amount of one
when it buys the other. Capital costs and fixed operating
and maintenance costs for all heat pumps for cooling have
been set to zero to avoid double counting.
10.3.6 Commercial Process Technologies
Process technologies convert one energy carrier into an-
other. There are five process technologies in the commer-
cial sector. Four of them are used for emissions accounting
and will be explained in section 11.3, but the other one is
PNGALDCC = NGA to commercial through LDCs
A natural gas local distribution company does not earn a
profit on the buying and reselling of the natural gas itself.
An LDC is allowed to earn a fair return on the money that
42
-------
the LDC has invested in the system that delivers the gas to
customers. Therefore, PNGALDCRhas an investment cost
(INVCOST) associated with it as well as variable operat-
ing and maintenance costs (VAROM). These costs came
from the 1997 DOE MARKAL database.
10.3.7 Commercial Parameters
This section describes the parameters used to characterize
commercial demand and process technologies in MARKAL
and the calculations required to transform source data into
MARKAL form. This is a summary of all parameters used
and is not meant to indicate that all technologies have each
of these parameters in their description.
Units
All costs are expressed in millions of 1995 dollars. All en-
ergy quantities are expressed in petajoules. End-use de-
mands for cooling, cooking, heating, water heating, and
refrigeration technologies are expressed in petajoules.
Lighting services are measured in billion lumen years, and
ventilation services are measured in trillion cubic foot per
minute (cfm)-hours.
EIA(2002f)—Technology Cost and Performance file for
the AEO2002 commercial model (KTECH File)
Each record of the KTECH file provides specifications for
a specific model of a specific technology in a specific Cen-
sus Division. For the EPANMD, the technology data for
Region 4, West North Central, was chosen as representa-
tive of national data. Data in the file that was used for
MARKAL data includes First Calendar Year of Availabil-
ity, Life, Capital Costs, Efficiencies, Operating and Main-
tenance Costs, and Initial Market Shares.
use demand type. The capacity factor is the ratio of actual
annual equipment output to output if equipment were run
100% of the time at full capacity.
Availability and utilization parameters
CF: The Capacity Factor value for each Census Division
by building type and end use demand was taken from the
KCAPFAC file. Energy consumption data for each Cen-
sus Division by building type and end use demand was
taken from the 1999 Commercial Buildings Energy Con-
sumption Survey (CBECS). A national weighted average
CF for each end use demand was determined from these
values.
The calculated national average CF numbers by end use
are:
Heating = 0.28
Cooling =0.17
Water Heating =0.44
Ventilation = 0.85
Cooking = 0.35
Lighting = 0.42
Refrigeration = 1.00
IBOND(BD): Specifies a user imposed bound on invest-
ment in new capacity. As detailed in Table 60, this param-
eter has been used to place an upper bound of zero, pre-
venting investment in new capacity, for any technologies
once they have been replaced by a new vintage on the
market. It has also been used to prevent investment in new
capacity for all "existing" technologies, which represent
residual installed capacity at the beginning of the model
horizon.
Capacity Factor file (KCAPFAC)
This AEO file is used by the Technology Choice subrou-
tine of the National Energy Modeling System Commercial
Sector Demand Module. The file lists equipment capacity
factor values for each Census Division by building end
LIFE: The data for this parameter came directly from the
KTECH file.
START: The data for this parameter came directly from
the KTECH file.
Table 60. Commercial Sector IBOND example.
MARKAL MARKAL Description Last Year 1995 2000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
43
2035
CC12
CC13
CC14
CC15
CC16
CC17
Ground source heat pump
for cooling - 2000 typical
Ground source heat pump
for cooling -2000 high
Ground source heat pump
for cooling - 2005 typical
Ground source heat pump
for cooling -2005 high
Ground source heat pump
for cooling - 2010 typical
Ground source heat pump
for cooling -2010 high
2000
2000
2005
2005
2015
2015
0000
0000
000
000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-------
Efficiency and cost parameters
EFF: The data for this parameter came directly from the
KTECHfile.
For CC, CH, CK, CW, and CR: The AEO efficiency data
are provided in units of British thermal units of output per
British thermal units of input, and these values are con-
verted to MARKAL units of petajoules output per
petajoules input.
For CL: Lighting efficiency data are provided in units of
lumens per watt. These values were converted to billion
lumen years per petajoule
For CV: Ventilation efficiency data are provided in units
of 1000 cfrn-hours per 1000 Btu. These values were con-
verted to 1072 cfm-hours per petajoule.
For CMD, CME, CMG, CML, CMR: Efficiencies are as-
sumed to be 1.
INVCOST: The data for this parameter came directly from
the KTECHfile.
For CC, CH, CK, CW, and CR: The AEO capital cost data
are provided in units of 2001 dollars per 1000 Btu/hr. These
values were converted to units of millions of 1995 dollars
per petajoule per year.
For CL: Lighting capital cost data are provided in units of
2001 dollars per 1000 lumens. These values were converted
to millions of 1995 dollars per billion lumens.
For CV: Ventilation capital cost data are provided in units
of 2001 dollars per 1000 CFM. These values were con-
verted to millions of 1995 dollars per trillion CFM per yr.
FIXOM: The data for this parameter came directly from
the KTECH file. Operation and & maintenance cost data
are provided in the same units as the capital costs and re-
quires the same conversions as the INVCOST.
Input and output parameters
MA(ENT): In the Commercial sector, each technologies
use one energy carrier, and therefore MA(ENT) is equal to
1.0.
OUT(DM): For the Commerical sector, these units are
petajoules perpetajoules. For all Commercial demand tech-
nologies, all of the energy activity of the technology con-
tributes to a single end-use demand, and therefore
OUT(DM) equals 1.0.
Other MARKAL parameters
CAPUNIT: The value is 1 for all commercial technolo-
gies.
RESID: AEO 2002 market shares by technology type were
taken directly from the KTECH file. These market shares
were then applied to the 1995 service demands and divided
by the CF to calculate the total residual technology stock
for each technology in 1995. For all technology catego-
ries, RESID values for subsequent years were calculated
using straight line projections.
DISCRATE: Specifies user defined technology-specific
discount rates (hurdle rates) to represent a perceived hesi-
tation on investment. All currently available commercial
technology has a discount rate of 0.18. All new commer-
cial technology that departs from conventional technology,
for example a higher efficient heat pump that would re-
quire a greater up-front capital cost investment over tradi-
tionally used technology, carries a discount rate of 0.44.
10.3.8 Commercial Energy Carriers
Six energy carriers are used by the commercial sector end-
use technologies. Electricity (ELC) is universal and goes
to all sectors. For the five Commercial-specific carriers (see
Table 61), the first three letters of the name refer to the fuel
type, the fourth letter is a 'C' for Commercial, and the final
letters indicate the path: EA = after emissions accounting
and LDC = after passing through LDC (NGA only).
Table 61. Commercial Sector Energy Carriers.
Name Definition
DSHCEA Fuel oil to commercial after emissions
DSLCEA Diesel to commercial after emissions
LPGCEA LPG to commercial after emissions
NGACEA NGA to commercial after emissions
NGACLDC NGA to commercial through LDC
10.3.9 Commercial Emissions Accounting
All fuels with commercial specific emissions factors pass
through a "dummy" process technology which tracks emis-
sions from a particular fuel type going to commercial tech-
nologies. There are no costs associated with these "tech-
nologies". They simply have an incoming energy carrier
and an outgoing energy carrier. As illustrated in Table 62,
the first two letters of the names of these process technolo-
gies are 'SE' for Emissions. The last three letters are 'COM'
for Commercial. The letters in-between represent the fuel
44
-------
type. The emissions data assumptions and calculations are
explained in Section 11.
Table 62. Commercial Sector Emission "Dummy" Process
Technologies.
Name Definition
SEDSHCOM Emissions: Diesel to commercial
SEDSLCOM Emissions: Diesel to commercial
SELPGCOM Emissions: LPG to commercial
SENGACOM Emissions: NGA to commercial
10.3.10 Commercial Constraints
There are 21 constraints in the commercial sector that are
used to tie together the two technologies that were created
to describe each heat pump, one for space heating and one
for space cooling. The cooling capacity of a specific heat
pump technology is subtracted from the heating capacity
of the same heat pump with the fixed result of zero. This
ensures that if a technology is invested in for cooling, it
will also be used for heating. These constraints are abso-
lute constraints and are named A_CHP1 through A_CHP21.
There are eight constraints in the commercial sector used
to apply specific fuel use splits to heating and water heat-
ing technologies. The initial fuel use splits were taken from
the AEO 2002 Table A5: Commercial Sector Key Indica-
tors and Consumption, which is included here as Table 63.
Splits are relaxed overtime to allow the model more varia-
tion in technologies to choose from.
Table 63. Commercial Space and Water Heating Fuel
Splits.
AEO Table AS Commercial Sector Key Indicators and
Consumption
(QBtu per Year)
Delivered Energy Consumption by Fuel
Year 2000
Space Heating
Electricity 0.15
Natural Gas 1.5
Distillate 0.23
Total 1.88
Water Heating
Total
Electricity
Natural Gas
Distillate
0.15
0.65
0.08
0.88
2000
%
0.0798
0.7979
0.1223
0.1705
0.7386
0.0909
These eight constraints are percentage splits, so the name
begins with S_. The second letter in the constraint name
reflects the technology sector, which in this case is 'C' for
'Commercial'. The third letter represents the technology
type and the fourth through seventh letters represent the
energy carrier. The fuel split constraints are listed in Table
Table 64. Commercial Space and Water Heating
Constraints.
Name
Definition
S_CHDSH Fuel oil fuel split-heating
S_CHELC Electricity fuel split - heating
S_CHNGA Natural gas fuel split - heating
S_CLINC Incandescent lighting fuel split
S_CLMAG Magnetic lighting fuel split
S_CWDSH Fuel oil fuel split - water heating
S_CWELC Electricity fuel split - water heating
S_CWNGA Natural gas fuel split - water heating
64.
10.4 Transportation Sector
The transportation sector has eight sub-sectors: Light Duty
Vehicles (LDV), Heavy trucks, Buses, Non-Highway, Air,
Passenger rail, Freight rail, and Waterborne transport.
10.4.1 Transportation Data Sources
Data for the set of light duty vehicles were extracted from
the 2003 Quality Metrics Report (DOE, 2003). The Qual-
ity Metrics Report is published annually by DOE under a
Congressional mandate. These data were supplemented by
data from Transportation Energy Data Book: Edition 21
(Davis, 2001), prepared on an annual basis by Oak Ridge
National Laboratory, and from the Annual Energy Outlook
2002 (EIA, 2002d). Data for heavy trucks and buses was
derived from draft Climate Change Action Report (CCAR)
data (2001). Data for other forms of transport, including
air, ship, and rail, was retained from the 1997 DOE
MARKAL database.
10.4.2 Transportation Assumptions
l.Five classes of personal vehicles (LDVs) are repre-
sented: compacts, full-size, minivans, pick-up trucks,
and sports utility vehicles (SUV). Market shares for
these classes are exogenously determined based on the
projections by AEO 2002 (EIA, 2002d) and cannot be
changed from scenario to scenario. They are fixed at
25%, 27%, 7%, 20%, and 21%, respectively.
2. Average vehicle miles traveled (VMT) per year per
vehicle are fixed at their 1995 values of 11,203 for
cars and 12,018 for trucks and SUVs. All data are from
Davis (2001), Tables 7.1 and 7.2.
3.Heavy trucks are those greater than 26,000 pounds
(Classes 7 and 8). Medium trucks (10,000-26,000
pounds), which consume less than five percent of total
highway energy use, are omitted from this study.
45
-------
constraints
carriers
process Technologies! Energy»I Demand Technologies! Energyj End-Use Demands
I — 1 carriers I . 1 carriers I
Figure 34. Transportation Sector RES.
emissions
10.4.3 Transportation RES
The Transportation Sector RES, illustrated in Figure 34,
consists of demand technologies that are capable of meet-
ing end-use demands. Prior to the demand technologies
are a number of process technologies that make transpor-
tation ready fuel (i.e., the mixing of ethanol and gasoline
to make E85 fuel). Emissions for transportation are tracked
at the demand technology.
10.4.4 Transportation End-Use Demands
The transportation sector is characterized by seven end-
use demand technologies, listed in Table 65. Demands are
derived from the 1997 DOE MARKAL database with a
ratio adjustment based on the changes in transportation use
from 1998 to 2002 predicted by the AEO.
Table 65. Transportation Sector End-Use Demands.
Name Definition
TA Airtransport
TB Bus transport
TH Heavy trucks (greater than 10,000 Ib)
TL Personal automotive - LDVs
TR1 Freight services by rail
TR2 Passenger services by rail
TS Marine energy services
TO Transportation other
Demand calculations
A ratio of use by transportation demand type was calcu-
lated using EIA (1998) Table 32 (Assumptions to the AEO
1998) and EIA (2002c) Table 33, Transportation Energy
Use by Mode and Type. For example, Table 32 of EIA
(1998) lists the use of water transport for year 2000 at 1501
trillion Btu. Table 33 of EIA (2002c) lists the year 2000
use of water transport at 1713 trillion Btu, creating a ratio
of 1.14. This ratio was then applied to the 1997 DOE
MARKAL database demand for water transport of 176 bil-
lion ton miles to calculate the revised demand of 200 bil-
lion ton miles shown in Table 66.
Off-highway transportation
Off-highway transportation covers a wide range of sec-
tors, including agriculture, industrial & commercial, con-
struction, personal & recreational, and other. According to
Davis and Diegel (2004) (Table 2.8), off-highway gaso-
line consumption increased from 5797 million gallons in
1997 to 5870 million gallons in 2001 at a rate of 0.31% per
year. On the other hand, diesel consumption increased from
9424 million gallons in 1997 to 10596 million gallons in
2001 at a rate of 2.97% per year. The projected off-high-
way gasoline and off-highway diesel consumption is pro-
jected to grow at 0.18% and 4.08% per year, respectively
between 2000 and 2005. At these rates, off-highway gaso-
line and diesel consumption is projected to increase by 1.08
and 6.0 times, respectively, between 2005 and 2050. It was
decided for EPANMD use that the projection for diesel
consumption to 2050 should be adjusted downward. There-
fore, off-highway diesel consumption was correlated with
GDP projections, and the resulting diesel consumption is
projected to growth by 2.5 times between 2005 and 2050.
10.4.5 Demand Technologies
There are 349 end-use technologies in the transportation
sector. They are broken down into subcategories as fol-
lows:
Table 66. Transportation Sector Demands.
Demand
Units
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
46
2030
2035
TA
TB
TH
TL
TR1
TR2
TS
TO
billion passenger miles
billion vehicle miles traveled
billion vehicle miles traveled
billion vehicle miles traveled
billion ton miles
billion vehicle miles traveled
billion ton miles
PJ
348
10
220
2227
125
25
163
2057
473
9
272
2340
141
25
200
2275
539
9
317
2659
157
28
183
2525
660
10
370
2981
167
31
177
2849
793
11
421
3318
179
34
175
3145
853
11
469
3631
195
38
173
3395
985
11
521
3970
211
41
173
3609
1139
11
580
4340
230
45
173
3847
1306
12
644
4745
248
50
173
4102
-------
Light duty vehicles
Heavy trucks
Buses
Air
Public transport
Rail
Ship
Off-highway
312
15
10
2
O
3
2
2
Table 68. Naming Convention for Heavy Duty Vehicle
Demand Technologies.
Name Definition
The first character in the names of transportation demand
technologies is a "T." The second character identifies the
subcategory, which is "L" for light duty vehicles (LDVs)
as shown in Table 67. The following are examples of LDV
end-use technologies.
TLECGSL — Car, gasoline, existing fleet of compacts
TLCCONV15 — Car, gasoline, conventional, compacts
(2015 technology)
TLCADSL25 — Car, advanced diesel, compact (2025
technology)
TLFMMPG15 — Car, gasoline, moderate miles per gal-
lon for full size (2015 technology)
TLS2HYB30 — SUV, hybrid, twice the gas mileage of
conventional SUV (2X) (2030 technology)
TLMMTHXOO — Minivan, flex methanol (2000 tech-
nology)
TLPADSL05 — Pickups and large vans, advanced die-
sel (2005 technology)
For heavy duty vehicles, the second letter is "H." The next
three to four letters represent the fuel type and the final
two letters represent the model year as illustrated in Table
68. Diesel trucks are also divided up into efficiency im-
provements represented as follows:
10P = 10% efficiency improvement,
THDSLOO
THDSL20POO
THDSL40POO
THEDSL
THGSL
THEGSL
THCNG
THALC
THLPG
THDSL10
THDSL10P10
THDSL20P10
THDSL20
THDSL10P20
THDSL20P20
Truck,
Truck,
Truck,
Truck,
Truck,
Truck,
Truck,
Truck,
Truck,
Truck,
Truck,
Truck,
Truck,
Truck,
Truck,
heavy, Diesel - 2000
heavy, Diesel + 20% mpg -
heavy, Diesel + 40% mpg -
heavy, existing Diesel fleet
heavy, gasoline
2000
2000
heavy, existing gasoline fleet
heavy, compressed natural
heavy, alcohol fuel
heavy, LPG
heavy, Diesel - 2010
heavy, Diesel + 10% mpg -
heavy, Diesel + 20% mpg -
heavy, Diesel - 2020
heavy, Diesel + 10% mpg -
heavy, Diesel + 20% mpg -
gas
2010
2010
2020
2020
20P = 20% efficiency improvement, and
40P = 40% efficiency improvement.
The second letter in the demand technology name for buses
is "B." The remaining letters and numbers follow the same
convention as the heavy trucks, as illustrated in Table 69.
Table 69. Naming Convention for Bus Demand
Technologies.
Name Definition
TBGSL Bus, gasoline
TBGSL10P Bus, gasoline + 10% mpg
TBGSL20P Bus, gasoline + 20% mpg
TBEGSL Bus, existing gasoline fleet
TBDSL Bus, Diesel
TBDSL10P Bus, Diesel + 10% mpg
TBDSL20P Bus, Diesel + 20% mpg
TBEDSL Bus, existing Diesel fleet
TBCNG Bus, compressed natural gas
TBALC Bus, alcohol fuel
Table 67. Naming Convention for Light Duty Vehicle Demand Technologies.
Name Character Number and Description
6
Sector
Light Car
Duty Class
Description
Technology Type
Description
Final
Model Yr
TIE
1
i \
C
F
S
M
P
existing
LDV
compact LDV
full-size
LDV
SUV LDV
minivan
pick-up
LDV
LDV
C
M
A
A
2
3
E
M
C
C
E
F
F
F
L
O
M
M
D
H
H
T
T
N
N
L
C
C
C
P
N
P
P
S
Y
Y
H
H
G
G
C
H
G
M
G
V
G
G
L
X
X
X
X
conventional
moderate mpg
advanced mpg
advanced diesel
2X hybrid
3X hybrid
ethanol flex fuel
methanol flex fuel
CNG dedicated
CNG bifuel
electric
fuel cell - hydrogen
fuel cell - gasoline
fuel cell - methanol
LPG bifuel
00
05
10
15
20
25
30
35
47
-------
Table 70 illustrates the naming convention for air trans-
port, Table 71 for shipping, Table 72 for public transporta-
tion, and Table 73 for Rail.
Table 70. Naming Convention for Air Transport Demand
Technologies.
Name Definition
TA01 Airplane, jet passenger
TA02 Airplane, general aviation
Table 71. Naming Convention for Shipping Demand
Technologies.
Name Definition
TSDSL Water transport, Diesel
TSDSH Water transport, residual oil
Table 72. Naming Convention for Public Transportation
Demand Technologies.
Name
Definition
TPELCPT Public transit powered by electricity
TPELCCR Commuter rail, electricity
TPDSLCR Commuter rail, Diesel
10.4.6 Transportation Process Technologies
There are 19 process technologies in the transportation
sector. Six of these are simply "dummy" collector process
technologies used to collect fuels going to the transporta-
tion sector as illustrated in Figure 35. The other 13 pro-
cess technologies are used to transform certain fuels
for use in bi-fuel and flex-fuel vehicles AND are
mapped out in Table 74.
DSH
DSL
GSL
MTH
LPG
ETH
\ SCDSLT | —
\ SCGSLT | —
\ SCLPGT | —
DSHT
DSLT
GSLT
MTHT
LPGT
ETHT
™
Figure 35. Transportation "Dummy" Collector Process
Technologies.
Table 73. Naming Convention for Rail Demand
Technologies.
Name Definition
TPELCPT Public transit powered by electricity
TPELCCR Commuter rail, electricity
TPDSLCR Commuter rail, Diesel
10.4.7 Transportation Parameters
This section describes the parameters used to characterize
transportation demand and process technologies in
MARKAL and the calculations required to transform the
source data into MARKAL form. This is a summary of all
parameters used and is not meant to indicate that all tech-
Table 74. Transportation Sector Process Technologies.
Name
CNG
PNGACNG
SCCNGTH
SCCNGTL
SCCNGCNGX
SCGSLCNGX
Flex Ethanol
PETHE85
SCE85ETHX
SCGSLETHX
LPG
SCGSLLPGX
SCLPGLPGX
Flex Methanol
PMTHM85
SCGSLMTHX
SCM95MTHX
Description
Natural gas compression
CNG to heavy truck fuel
CNG to automobile fuel
CNG to CNG-gasoline bifuel
Ethanol and gasoline to E85
Ł85 to E85-gasoline flex fuel
Gasoline to E85-gasoline flex fue!
Gasoline to LPG-gasoline bifuel
LPG to light duty vehicle fuel
Methanol and gasoline to M95
Gasoline to M95-gasoline flex fuel
Methanol to M95-gasoline flex fuel
RES
HNfi
i— H SCCNGTH
NGA-H PNGACNG | —
"— H SCCNGTL
PTHT FT"
_^ PETHE85 |— — H SCE85ETHX
GSLT
GSLT— H SCGSLETHX
Diagram
_ CNGTH
] — — — »• TH and TB CNG fueled technologies
GNQTL
1 H SCCNGCNGX 1— i HNRY
•• TL CNG technologies
GSLT H SCGSLCNSX H
3~~]ETHX
— — *• TL flex ethanol technologies
3-1
GSLT— H SCGSLLPGX
LPGT— H SCLPGLPGX
J— iLPGX
*• TL LPG technologies
IH
MTHT MOC
_^ PMTHM8S I -I SCM96MTHX
GSLT
GSLT— H SCGSLMTHX
r:
TL flex methanol technologies
48
-------
nologies have each of these parameters in their descrip-
tion.
Units
Demand for light duty transport, heavy trucks, and buses
is expressed in billions of vehicle miles traveled (bvmt).
Capacity is expressed in billions of vehicle miles traveled
per annum (bvmt/a). Activities for air passenger services,
commuter rail, and intercity passenger rail are expressed
in billions of passenger miles traveled (bpmt), and capaci-
ties are expressed in billions of passenger miles traveled
per annum. Activities for freight services by intercity rail
and water borne modes are measured in billions of ton
miles, and capacities in billions of ton miles per annum.
Light duty vehicle capital cost and efficiency data were
taken from the following sources.
Quality Metrics Report 2003 (QM2003—Patterson et al.,
2002):
• Conventional
• Advanced diesel
• Hybrid with twice the miles per gallon fuel consump-
tion of the conventional vehicle of the same type (2X)
• Hybrid (3X)
• Flexethanol
• CNG dedicated
• Electric
• Fuel cell, hydrogen
• Fuel cell, gasoline
Annual Energy Outlook 2002 (EIA, 2002d):
• Flexmethanol
• CNGBi-fuel
• LPGBi-fuel
DeCiccoetal. (2001):
• Gasoline, moderate miles per gallon improvements
• Gasoline, advanced miles per gallon improvements
Availability and utilization parameters
CF: All vehicles are assumed to be used at a fixed average
annual capacity, so CF values are simply set to 1.
IBOND: This parameter has been used to place an invest-
ment upper bound of zero, preventing investment in new
capacity, on all technologies once a new vintage year for
that technology becomes available. It has also been used
to prevent investment in new capacity for all "existing"
technologies, which represent residual installed capacity
at the beginning of the model time horizon. An example of
how this parameter is used is shown in Table 75.
LIFE: Values for light duty vehicles were taken from Table
6.10 of AEO2002 (Davis, 2001). All LDVs are assumed to
have a lifetime of 15 years. Values for heavy trucks were
taken from Table 6.11 of Davis, 2001. Values for buses
were taken from the draft Climate Change Action Report
(CCAR) data (draft of U.S. GCRIO, 2002).
START: For transport technologies, the start year repre-
sents the assumed first year of commercial availability (not
technical viability) of a technology. For this initial effort
on transport, the start date was taken from each of the pri-
mary sources for a given technology characterization. Start
year data for heavy trucks and buses was taken from draft
CCAR data.
Efficiency and cost parameters
EFF: Light duty vehicle efficiencies are expressed in bil-
lions of vehicle miles traveled per petajoule of energy in-
put. As with INVCOST, new vehicle efficiency data from
sources other than QM2003 was taken in the form of ratios
of alternative technology efficiencies to conventional ve-
hicle efficiencies which were then applied to the QM2003-
derived conventional vehicles. The conversion from effi-
ciencies in source units of miles per gallon gasoline equiva-
lent to MARKAL units is
Table 75. Transportation IBOND Example.
MARKAL MARKAL Description 1995
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
TLCMMPG10
TLCMMPG15
TLCMMPG20
TLCMMPG25
TLCMMPG30
Car, gasoline, moderate mpg,
compact- 2010
Car, gasoline, moderate mpg,
compact - 2015
Car, gasoline,2moderate mpg,
com pact -20 10
Car, gasoline, moderate mpg,
compact - 2025
Car, gasoline, moderate mpg,
compact - 2030
000
0 0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
49
-------
EFF =
mpgt
MMBTU PJ
x 10"9 = bvmt/PJ
•x
gal MMBTU
where
mpgt = miles per gallon, from source data,
MMBTU
gal
PJ
= million Btu per gallon of fuel, and
= petajoules per million Btu.
Because efficiencies for gasoline vehicles have been
broadly constant within size classes since 1990, EFF for
existing gasoline vehicles was set equal to the value for
the "Conventional" vehicle in each size class. Efficiencies
for existing diesel cars and light trucks were taken from
AEO 1997 Supplemental Table 46, Summary of New Light-
Duty Vehicle Size Class Attributes (EIA, 1997b). Efficien-
cies for methanol fuel cell vehicles were set equal to that
for gasoline fuel cell vehicles in the same size class.
All values given by the data sources are EPA rated effi-
ciencies. Efficiencies were adjusted to on road efficiencies
using the AEO 2002 fuel efficiency degradation factors
from Assumptions to AEO 2002, Table 29, Car and Light
Truck Degradation Factors, (EIA, 2002c). Degradation
factors are used by the AEO to convert EPA-rated fuel
economy to actual "on the road" fuel economy. It takes
into account three factors: increases in city/highway driv-
ing, increasing congestion levels, and rising highway
speeds. The average degradation factors for cars are 0.74
in 2000 and 0.81 in 2025. For light trucks the value is 0.8.
Efficiency data for heavy trucks and buses were derived
from draft CCAR data, expressed in miles per gallon gaso-
line equivalent. These values were transformed to
MARKAL units of billion vehicle miles traveled per
petajoule as described above for light-duty vehicles.
INVCOST: For light duty vehicles, investment costs refer
to the average price that a consumer would pay for a ve-
hicle.
Investment cost data from the QM2003 (Patterson, et al.,
2002) were taken as given in Table A-30 and transformed
as described below. To eliminate differences that could be
introduced from different sources using different charac-
terizations of conventional vehicles, values from other
sources were converted into ratios of purchase price for
alternative technologies to purchase price for the conven-
tional vehicle in that size class. These ratios were then ap-
plied as multipliers to the conventional vehicle data de-
rived from QM2003.
These sources provide investment costs in thousands of
dollars per vehicle. These values are translated to the aver-
age cost in millions of 1995 dollars per billion vehicle miles
traveled per annum capacity as described above using
measures of average vehicle miles traveled by vehicle type
extracted from Davis, 2001 Tables 7.1 and 7.2. These av-
erage vehicle miles traveled values are for 1995, and in the
base EPANMD are assumed to be constant over the fore-
cast horizon. (The user may choose to assume different
average vmt measures by vehicle type overtime and exog-
enously recalculate these measures based on those assump-
tions.)
The following relationship illustrates the calculation of
INVCOST.
cos? 1Q9
INVCOST = deflator x -^ x ~r = mil.l995$/bvmt/a
vmt/av 10 ' '
where
deflator = appropriate GDP implicit deflator,
costv = purchase price of a given vehicle type, v,
from source data in thousands od dollars, and
vmt/av = average measure of vehicle miles trav-
eled per year for a given vehicle type, v.
INVCOSTs for "existing" vehicles are set identical to those
for "conventional" vehicles in each size class in the year
2000. INVCOST for existing diesel cars and light trucks is
set to 1.07 times that for existing compact and pickup, re-
spectively. This value is the 1996 average ratio of diesel to
gasoline new vehicle purchase price in AEO 1998 Table
50 (the first year this table was published). Because these
are RESID vehicles and new investment is prohibited, this
parameter does not affect model results and indeed is not
used by the model for standard MARKAL runs.
Investment cost data for heavy trucks and buses were de-
rived from draft CCAR data, expressed in 1999 dollars per
vehicle. These values were converted to MARKAL units
of millions of 1995 dollars per bvmt per annum using a
fixed average yearly VMT as described above for light-
duty vehicles.
FIXOM: Fixed operating and maintenance (O&M) costs
ordinarily refer to those expenses which do not vary with
levels of activity or use. However, because all light duty
vehicles are assumed to be used at a fixed yearly activity
50
-------
level, FIXOM costs may also include those which may be
thought of as varying with activity levels. For example,
fixed O&M for personal transport would include routine
maintenance such as oil changes, tune-ups, licensing fees
and emissions tests, and routine insurance.
Data for most vehicle types were taken from the Quality
Metrics reports as described above for INVCOST. To main-
tain compatibility of costs across vehicle types, FIXOM
values for other vehicle types were set equal to those of
Quality Metrics-derived vehicles:
• Flex methanol = Flex ethanol,
• CNG Bi-fuel = CNG dedicated,
• LPG Bi-fuel = CNG dedicated,
• Fuel Cell - methanol = Fuel cell - gasoline,
• Gasoline, moderate MPG improvements = Conven-
tional,
• Gasoline, advanced MPG improvements = Conven-
tional.
Fixed O&M values are converted to millions of 1995 dol-
lars per billion vehicle miles traveled per annum as de-
scribed above for INVCOST and illustrated in the rela-
tionship
O&M 109
FIXOM = deflator x x — = mill995$/bvmt/a
where
vmt/av 106
O&MV = fixed O&M costs for a given vehicle type,
v, from source data.
Fixed O&M cost data for heavy trucks and buses were
derived from draft CCAR data, expressed in 1999 dollars
per vehicle. These values were transformed to MARKAL
units of millions of 1995 dollars per vehicle miles traveled
per annum using a fixed average yearly VMT as described
above for light-duty vehicles.
Input and output parameters
MA(ENT): These types include (1) conventional gasoline,
with existing and improved emissions controls; (2) diesel;
(3) methanol, E85, and M95; (4) CNG and LPG; (5) elec-
tric; and (6) hydrogen. For dedicated, single-fuel vehicles,
the value of this parameter is set to 1, and the energy car-
rier used is specified. For flexible and bi-fiiel vehicles, an
extra layer of process technologies is set up before the ve-
hicles to allow the vehicle stock to use varying fractions of
the permissible fuels:
• Flex ethanol - E85 and gasoline,
• Flex methanol - M95 and gasoline,
• CNG bi-fuel - CNG and gasoline, and
• LPG bi-fuel - LPG and gasoline.
OUT(DM): All light-duty vehicles service the demand TL,
light duty vehicle transport.
Other MARKAL parameters
CAPUNIT: Activities for all light duty vehicles are mea-
sured in billions of vehicle miles traveled and capacities
are measured in billions of vehicle miles traveled per an-
num, so CAPUNIT is set to 1.
RESID: RESID values are specified for the following light-
duty vehicles:
• Car, gasoline, existing fleet of compacts,
• Car, diesel, existing fleet of full size,
• Car, gasoline, existing fleet of full size,
• SUV, gasoline, existing fleet,
• Minivan, gasoline, existing fleet,
• Pickup trucks and large vans, gasoline, existing fleet,
and
• Light truck, Diesel, existing fleet.
RESID values for 1995 are based on billion vehicle miles
traveled in 1995, taken from Edition 21 of the Transporta-
tion Energy Data Book (Davis, 2001), Tables 7.1 and 7.2.
Total miles traveled were apportioned by fuel type using
shares of total vehicle miles traveled derived from
AEO1997 (EIA, 1997b) Supplemental Table 47. Because
the fleet was assumed to be at the midpoint of its lifespan
on average, sales shares from 1990 were used to apportion
miles traveled among size classes (Edition 21 of the Trans-
portation Energy Data Book Tables 7.5 and 7.6). Straight
line projection was used to determine RESIDs for later
model years.
RESID values are specified for the following heavy trucks
and buses:
• Truck, heavy, existing diesel fleet,
• Truck, heavy, existing gasoline fleet,
• Truck, heavy, LPG,
• Bus, existing gasoline fleet,
• Bus, existing Diesel fleet,
• Bus, compressed natural gas, and
• Bus, alcohol fuel.
RESID values for 1995 are based on billions of vehicle
miles traveled in 1995 or the nearest available year. For
heavy trucks, this value (1997) is taken directly from Edi-
51
-------
tion 21 of the Transportation Energy Data Book Table 8.6.
Total miles traveled were apportioned by fuel type using
shares of energy consumption by fuel taken from Edition
21 of the Transportation Energy Data Book Table 2.4.
For buses, billions of vehicle miles traveled was available
only for transit buses, taken from Edition 21 of the Trans-
portation Energy Data Book Table 8.12. Miles traveled for
school and intercity buses were imputed from transit bus
billions of vehicle miles traveled using ratios of energy
consumption for transit, school, and intercity buses taken
from Edition 21 of the Transportation Energy Data Book
Tables 8.12 and 8.13. Values for all three bus types were
then summed to get total bus billions of vehicle miles trav-
eled. As with heavy trucks, total miles traveled were then
apportioned by fuel type using shares of energy consump-
tion by fuel taken from Edition 21 of the Transportation
Energy Data Book Table 2.4.
Straight line projection was used to determine RESIDs for
later model years.
10.4.8 Transportation Energy Carriers
Table 76. Transportation Sector Energy Carriers.
Name Definition
ELC Electricity
JTF Fet fuel
M95 M95 fuel
MTHX Fuel for M95/gasoline flex vehicles
E85 E85fuel
ETHTL Ethanol to transportation
ETHX Fuel for E85/gasoline flex vehicles
LPGX Fuel for LPG/gasoline flex vehicles
CNGTL CNG to transportation
CNGX Fuel for CNG/gasoline bi-fuel vehicles
Ten energy carriers go to the transportation sector end-use
technologies. One of them, electricity (ELC), is universal
and goes to all sectors.
10.4.9 Transportation Emissions Accounting
The emissions are tracked a little differently in the trans-
portation sector than in the residential and commercial sec-
tor. Whereas in those sectors the emissions were tracked
through a "dummy" process technology for each fuel type
going to those sectors, in the transportation sector the emis-
sions are tracked individually for each of the technologies.
10.4.10 Transportation Constraints
There are five constraints in the transportation sector that
are used to apply specific car class splits to light duty ve-
hicle demands. The splits were taken from Transportation
Energy Data Book, Edition 21 (Davis, 2001) Table 7.5,
Period Sales, Market Shares, and Sales Weighted Fuel
Economies of New Domestic and Import Automobiles,
Selected Sales Periods, 1976-2000. The percentage of to-
tal sales in units was calculated for compact cars, full size
cars, SUVs, minivans, and pickups.
These constraints are percentage splits so their names be-
gin with S_. The second and third letters in the constraint
name are 'TL' for light duty transportation. The fourth let-
Table 77. Transportation Car Class Percentages.
Name Definition Percentage
S_TLC Compact car split
S_TLF Full-size car split
S_TLM Minivan split
S_TLP Pickup split
S_TLS SUV split
25
27
20
7
21
ter represents the car class. The fuel split constraints with
their values are listed in Table 77.
10.5 Industrial Sector
The industrial sector was developed based on the United
States region of the U.S. EIA's System for Analysis of Glo-
bal Energy Markets (SAGE) model (EIA, 2003a), used by
EIA to produce their International Energy Outlook 2002.
SAGE model data were recalibrated to the EPA MARKAL
model base year of 1995. The reader is referred to the EIA-
DOE documentation of the SAGE model for a complete
description of the industrial module. See the Section 2 for
a general description of the model and Section 5 for details
on the industrial sector in EIA, 2003a.
10.5.1 Industrial Data Sources
Original data for industrial sector technologies were taken
from the EIA SAGE database; from Energy Statistics:
OECD and Non-OECD Countries, and Energy Balances:
OECD and Non-OECD Countries (IEA, 2003); from the
EIA's 1998 Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey
(MECS) (EIA, 1998c); from the EIA's International En-
ergy Outlook 2002 (EIA, 2002g); from EIA's National En-
ergy Modeling System (NEMS) input data; from United
Nations, "Statistical Yearbook (45th edition)" (UN, 1999);
and from technical judgment by EIA modelers and Sci-
ence Applications International Corporation (SAIC), con-
sultants to EIA.
IEA Data contains data for the different industries, the other
non-specified energy uses and the non-energy uses:
• IRONSTL: Iron and steel
• NONFERR: Non ferrous metals
52
-------
constraints
carriers
emissions
Figure 36. Industrial Sector RES.
Technologies! Ener9y »I Demand Technologies! Energy J End-Use Demands
* C9rn GTS ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^-^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ C9rn srs ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^~
N*f
• CHEMICAL: Chemicals
• PAPERPRO: Paper products
• NONMET: Non metal materials
• OTHER: Others industries (not from IEA but calcu-
lated)
• TOTIND: Total industry sector
• NECHEM: Feedstocks in petrochemicals
• ONONSPEC: Other non-specified
• NEINTREN: Non energy uses in industries
• NEOTHER: Non energy uses in other sectors
10.5.2 Industrial RES
Unlike most of the end-use sectors in the EPA MARKAL
model, which consist of an end-use service demand layer
and a layer of technologies that compete to service those
demands, the industrial sector has a three layer structure
consisting of one end-use demand layer and two technol-
ogy layers. The RES for the industrial Sector is shown in
Figure 36.
10.5.3 Industrial End- Use Demands
There are seven industrial end-use demands, listed in Table
78.
Table 78. Industrial Sector End-Use Demands.
Name Definition
IIS Iron and steel
INF Nonferrous metals
ICH Chemicals
IIP Pulp and paper
INM Nonmetal minerals
IOI Other industries
NEO Industrial and other nonenergy uses
• Chemicals,
• Iron and steel,
• Non-ferrous metals,
• Non-metal minerals,
• Pulp and paper, and
• Other industries (including transport equipment, ma-
chinery, mining, food and tobacco, construction, and
textiles).
• Non-energy
The end-use demands are denoted in units of millions of
tons, representing the physical output of the subsector, or
petajoules, representing the total energy requirements.
Demand data, detailed in Table 79, are derived from the
IEA database (IEA, 2003) and from UN, 1999, and values
are projected using the EIA's International Energy Out-
look 2002 (EIA, 2002g).
10.5.4 Industrial Demand Technologies.
The end-use demands are directly serviced by the first tech-
nology layer, which is a layer of dummy demand tech-
nologies representing the relative contributions of various
energy services—including process heat, steam, machine
drive, electrochemical, feedstock, and other—to the out-
put (tons) or total energy requirements (petajoules) of the
industry. Each end-use demand is serviced by only one
dummy technology at any one time. However, this tech-
nology may change over time, representing structural
change in the industry. In the current database, these tech-
nologies do not change over time.
Table 79. Industrial Sector Demand Values in the EPANMD.
Demand
Units
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
53
2035
IOO
IIS
INF
ICH
IIP
INM
IOI
NEO
PJ
million
million
PJ
million
PJ
PJ
PJ
tonnes
tonnes
tonnes
0
90
7
8357
80
1569
6728
3605
1
96
7
9689
85
1662
7393
3736
1
102
8
11233
89
1761
8124
3872
1
110
8
12797
96
1867
9068
4001
1
119
9
14085
103
1967
9980
4109
1
127
10
15361
109
2064
10928
4213
1
136
11
16653
116
2158
11938
4316
1
144
12
17789
122
2239
12875
4405
1
152
13
18772
127
2308
13734
4481
-------
There are six "dummy" demand technologies, listed in
Table 80.
Table 80. Industrial Sector Demand Technologies.
Name Definition
IIS095 Iron and steel
INF095 Nonferrous materials
ICH095 Industrial chemicals
ILP095 Pulp and paper
INM095 Nonmetals
IOI095 Other industrial
Table 81 lists the relative contributions of various energy
services.
10.5.5 Industrial Process Technologies
The second technology layer consists of the actual process
technologies that provide these energy services. Many tech-
nologies, fueled by many different fuels, compete to pro-
vide the inputs to the first technology layer. For example,
machine drive to the pulp and paper industry is supplied
by the following set of technologies:
• Coal existing
• Distillate oil new
• Distillate oil existing
• Electric new
• Electric existing
• Electric high efficiency
• Electric improved efficiency
• Heavy oil new
• Heavy oil existing
• LPG existing
• Natural gas new
• Natural gas existing
Currently these technologies are very abstract, linking fu-
els to services. Only a few improved and high efficiency
technologies are available. However, this structure is very
flexible and could allow a user with sufficient data to char-
acterize physical technologies of interest to include such
technologies at this level of the structure. There are 289 of
these process technologies in the industrial sector.
The naming convention for the industrial sector is illus-
trated in Table 82.
Table 81. Industrial Sector Demand Tech Energy Needs.
Industry
Chemicals
Iron and steel
Pulp and paper
Nonferrous
Nonmetals
Industrial other
Electro-
chemical
0.01
0.08
43.89
0.01
Industrial
feedstocks
0.42
1.26
Machine
Drives
0.08
1.24
5.63
1.27
0.07
0.19
Industrial
Other
0.21
3.06
23.92
11.44
0.16
0.62
Process
Heat
0.14
7.08
1.93
48.13
0.75
0.13
Industrial
Steam
0.14
0.91
1.57
7.35
0.02
0.04
Table 82. Industrial Sector Naming Convention.
Name Character Number and Description
Technology Type Industrial Sector
1 2 Description 3 4
E electrochemical c H chemical
\
F feedstock | s iron and steel
M machine drives |_ P pulp and paper
O other N F nonferrous
p process heat N M nonmetal
S steam o I other
I
Energy Carrier
5
B
B
C
C
D
E
E
E
E
H
H
L
N
N
P
6
I
F
0
O
S
L
L
L
T
E
F
P
A
G
T
7
O
G
A
K
T
C
H
I
H
T
0
G
P
A
C
biomass
blast furnace gas
coal
coke
distillate
electric
high eff. electric
improved eff. electric
ethane
heat
fuel oil
LPG
naphtha
NGA
petroleum coke
Year
8,9,10
095
000
54
-------
Examples of industrial process technologies are
IELPELC095 Electrochemical process pulp and paper
electric, existing
IFCHETH095 Technology to convert ethane to non-
energy petrochemical
IFCHNGA095 Technology to convert natural gas to
non-energy, existing
IMCHELHOOO Machine drive chemicals electric, high
efficiency
IMISCOA095 Machine drive iron and steel coal,
existing
IMLPLPG095 Machine drive pulp and paper LPG,
existing
IONFCOAOOO Other nonferrous metals coal, new
IONMDST095 Other nonmetals distillate oil, existing
IPLPBIO095 Process heat pulp and paper biomass,
existing
IPNFCOK095 Process heat nonferrous metals coke,
existing
ISCFiHET095 Steam chemicals heat, existing
ISISNGAOOO Steam iron and steel natural gas, new
ISNFDSTOOO Steam non-ferrous metals distillate oil,
new
In addition, there are process technologies, listed in Table
83, that represent "dummy" processes that simply "con-
vert" (or rename) energy carriers into industrial energy
carriers. The remaining are process technologies that sat-
isfy demand technology needs.
Table 83. Industrial Sector "Dummy" Process Technologies.
Process
INDBFG095
INDBIO095
INDCOA095
INDCOK095
INDELC095
INDETH095
INDHET095
INDHFO095
INDHYD095
INDLPG095
INDNAP095
INDNGA095
INDNUC095
INDOIL095
INDPTC095
INDSOL095
INDWIN095
Description
Blastfurnace gas
Biofuels
Coal
Coke
Electricity
Ethane
Heat
Heavy fuel oil
Hydro
LPG
Naphtha
NGA
Nuclear
Refined Petroleum
Petroleum coke
Aolar
Wind
Incoming
Energy
Carrier
CMET
COAIEA
BIOWD-0
COAIEA
COKE
PFDST
DSHIEA
HYDRO-0
LPGIEA
PFDST
NGAIEA
NUCLWR-0
DSLIEA
GSLI
NEMISC
SOLAR-0
WIN-0
fraction
0.8
0.2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0.85
0.15
1
1
1
Outgoing
Energy
Carrier
INDBFG
INDBIO
INDCOA
INDCOK
INDELC
INDETH
INDHET
INDHFO
INDHYD
INDLPG
INDNAP
INDNGA
INDNUC
INDOIL
INDPTC
INDSOL
INDWIN
10.5.6 Conversion Technologies
Auto-production of ELC has been allocated to the indus-
trial sector. These technologies, listed in Table 84, produce
electricity for use in the industrial sector.
Table 84. Autoproduction Technologies in the Industrial
Sector.
Name Definition
EAELCBFGOO Autoproduction of ELC with BFG
EAELCBIOOO Autoproduction of ELC with BIO
EAELCCOAOO Autoproduction of ELC with COA
EAELCCOKOO Autoproduction of ELC with COK
EAELCETHOO Autoproduction of ELC with ETH
EAELCHFOOO Autoproduction of ELC with HFO
EAELCLPGOO Autoproduction of ELC with LPG
EAELCNAPOO Autoproduction of ELC with NAP
EAELCNGAOO Autoproduction of ELC with NGA
EAELCOILOO Autoproduction of ELC with OIL
EAELCPTCOO Autoproduction of ELC with PTC
EAUTELCOO Autoproduction of ELC with other than cogeneration
The CHP processes refer to all electricity production and
to heat production only if the heat is sold to third parties.
In case of a CHP plant that is owned by a refinery or a
petrochemical industry, the CHP line does not cover the
heat production or the fuel use for this heat production.
Consequently, auto-production of electricity and heat has
been directly allocated to industry and refinery, based on
some exogenous assumptions needed to recalculate the fuel
use and heat production from CHP. It is not easy to recon-
struct the fuel use and heat production by CHP from these
data because there is no fixed power to heat ratio. Conse-
quently, only heat sold to third parties can be calibrated to
the IEA database. In order to model the fuel use and heat
production by industrial CHP from these data, the follow-
ing assumptions have been made:
• Inputs and outputs of auto-CHP, as provided by IEA,
were shared between sectors (exogenous ratios), in-
cluding refineries.
• Heat production associated with electricity production,
as provided by IEA, has been calculated based on the
electricity/heat ratio (REH). These are exogenous val-
ues from IEA (Table 223).
• Energy inputs associated with heat production have
been calculated based on the efficiency of CHP (exog-
enous 0.8 for all sectors, all regions).
• Energy inputs to auto-CHP related to electricity pro-
duction have been added to the industrial energy in-
puts (energy inputs related to heat auto-production do
not need to be added as they are already included within
the appropriate consuming sector).
Industrial sector CHP technologies are listed in Table 85.
55
-------
Table 85. CHP Technologies in Industrial Sector.
Name Definition
ESTMBFGOOO
ESTMBIOOOO
ESTMCOAOOO
ESTMCOKOOO
ESTMETHOOO
ESTMHFOOOO
ESTMLPGOOO
ESTMNAPOOO
ESTMNGAOOO
ESTMOILOOO
ESTMPTCOOO
Auto
Auto
Auto
Auto
Auto
Auto
Auto
Auto
Auto
Auto
Auto
CHP
CHP
CHP
CHP
CHP
CHP
CHP
CHP
CHP
CHP
CHP
with
with
with
with
with
with
with
with
with
with
with
BFG existing
BIO existing
COA existing
COK existing
ETH existing
HFO existing
LPG existing
NAP existing
NGA existing
OIL existing
PTC existing
10.5.7 Industrial Parameters
This section describes the parameters used to characterize
industrial demand and process technologies in MARKAL
and the calculations required to transform source data into
MARKAL form. This is a summary of all parameters used
and is not meant to indicate that all technologies have each
of these parameters in their description.
All costs are expressed in millions of 1995 dollars. All en-
ergy quantities are expressed in petajoules. Capacities for
CHP technologies are in gigawatts. Capacities for all other
technologies are in petajoules per annum (PJ/a).
For demands denoted in million tons (IIS, ILP, and INF),
the values for each input service are the number of
petajoules needed to contribute to one million tons of out-
put for the subsector. Data characterizing new technolo-
gies were developed for EIA by Science Applications In-
ternational Corporation (SAIC).
Availability and utilization parameters
AF: Specifies the maximum annual availability fraction
of a technology.
Auto Production
CHP
Electrochemical
Feedstocks
Motor Drives
Other
Process Heat
Steam
0.7
0.7
0.8
1
0.25
0.8
0.8
0.8
CF: All technologies are assumed to be used at a fixed
average annual capacity, so CF values are simply set to 1.
IBOND: This parameter has been used to prevent invest-
ment in new capacity for all "existing" technologies, which
represent residual installed capacity at the beginning of
the model time horizon.
LIFE: Existing technologies are retired after a lifetime of
30 years. Existing CHP technologies are retired after a life-
time of 25 years, and existing electricity auto-production
technologies after a lifetime of 50 years.
START: All new technologies become available in model
year 2000.
Efficiency and cost parameters
EFF: Data characterizing technology efficiency was de-
veloped for EIA by SAIC.
INVCOST: Data characterizing technology investment
cost were developed for EIA by SAIC. Units are millions
of dollars per gigawatt for CHP technologies and millions
of dollars per petajoule per annum for other technologies.
FIXOM: Data characterizing technology fixed operating
and maintenance costs were developed for EIA by SAIC.
Units are millions of dollars per gigawatt for CHP tech-
nologies and millions of dollars per petajoule per annum
for other technologies.
Input and output parameters
MA(ENT): This parameter specifies the input energy car-
rier (ENT).
OUT(DM): This parameter specifies the end-use demand
(DM) serviced by the technology.
INP(ENT)p: Efficiencies for most existing technologies
are set to 1, so that these technologies are essentially sim-
ply accounting for the corresponding energy consumption
for each service. Efficiencies for existing steam technolo-
gies are set to 0.81 (corresponding to INP values of 1.235.)
Other MARKAL parameters
CAPUNIT: Activities for all technologies are measured
in petajoules and capacities are measured in petajoules per
annum, so CAPUNIT is set to 1.
RESID: Calculated by multiplying the 1995 final energy
by the efficiency and dividing by the availability.
REH: Specifies the ratio of electricity to heat output for
CHP technologies. For new technologies, this value is set
to 0.5.
10.5.8 Industrial Energy Carriers
There are 56 industrial-specific fuel carriers, which are
listed in Table 86.
56
-------
Table 86. Industrial Sector Energy Carriers.
Name
Definition
COAI Coal to industry prior to emissions accounting
COAIEA Coal to entire industrial sector after emis. accounting
DSHIEA Emissions: fuel oil to industrial sector
DSLIEA Diesel after NOX emis. controls for industrial use
GSLIEA Gasoline to industrial sector
LPGIEA LPG to industrial sector after emissions accounting
NGAIEA Nat. gas to industrial sector after emis. accounting
IECH Industrial electrochemical process chemicals
IEIS Industrial electrochemical process iron and steel
IELP Industrial electrochemical process pulp and paper
IENF Industrial electrochemical process nonferrous metals
IENM Industrial electrochemical process nonmetals
IEOI Industrial electrochemical process other industry
IFCH Industrial chemical feedstock
IFIS Industrial iron and steel feedstock
IMCH Industrial machine drive chemicals
IMIS Industrial machine drive iron and steel
IMLP Industrial machine drive pulp and paper
IMNF Industrial machine drive nonferrous metals
IMNM Industrial machine drive nonmetals
IMOI Industrial machine drive other industry
IOCH Industrial other chemicals
IOIS Industrial other iron and steel
IOLP Industrial other pulp and paper
IONF Industrial other nonferrous metals
IONM Industrial other nonmetals
IOOI Industrial other all other industry
IPCH Industrial process heat chemicals
IPIS Industrial process heat iron and steel
IPLP Industrial process heat pulp and paper
IPNF Industrial process heat nonferrous metals
IPNM Industrial process heat nonmetals
IPOI Industrial process heat other industry
ISCH Industrial steam chemicals
ISIS Industrial steam iron and steel
ISLP Industrial steam pulp and paper
ISNF Industrial steam nonferrous metals
ISNM Industrial steam nonmetals
ISOI Industrial steam other industry
INDBFG Blast furnace gas (industrial)
INDBIO Biofuels (industrial)
INDCOA Coal (industrial)
INDCOK Oven coke (industrial)
INDELC Electricity (industrial)
INDETH Ethane (industrial)
INDHET Heat (industrial)
INDHFO Heavy fuel oil (industrial)
INDHYD Hydro (industrial)
INDLPG Liquified petroleum gas (industrial)
INDNAP Naphtha (industrial)
INDNGA Natural gas mix (industrial)
INDNUC Nuclear (industrial)
INDOIL Refined petroleum products (industrial)
INDPTC Petroleum coke (industrial)
INDSOL Solar (industrial)
INDWIN Wind (industrial)
10.5.9 Industrial Emissions Accounting
Industrial emissions are tracked in two different ways: CO2,
CH4, and NOX emissions are tracked at the technology level.
SOX, PM10, and VOC emissions are tracked by fuel going
into the industrial sector. All fuels with industrial-specific
emission factors pass through a "dummy" process tech-
nology that tracks emissions. There are no costs associ-
ated with these "technologies;" they simply have an in-
coming energy carrier and an outgoing energy carrier. There
are six of these for the industrial sector, as listed in Table
87. The first two letters in the names of these process tech-
nologies are 'SE' for Emissions. The last three letters are
'IND for industrial. The letters in between represent the
fuel type.
Table 87. Industrial Emissions "Dummy" Process
Technologies.
Name
Definition
SECOAIND Emissions: coal to industrial
SEDSHIND Emissions: fuel oil to industrial
SEDSLIND Emissions: Diesel to industrial
SEGSLIND Emissions: gasoline to industrial
SELPGIND Emissions: LPG to industrial
SENGAIND Emissions: NGA to industrial
The emissions data assumptions and calculations are ex-
plained in Section 11.
Data were taken from Jaques (1992) and Jaques et al.
(1997).
10.5.10 Industrial Constraints
A set of fuel switching constraints is used to force fuel
switching to take place gradually over time. These con-
straints force a minimum share of each fuel for each en-
ergy service. 1995 minimum shares are set at 1995 actual
values derived from the IEA database. The minimum shares
then relax over time so that the 2000 values are 99.5% of
the 1995 values; 2020 values are 80% of 1995 values; and
2045 values are 60% of 1995 values. Values for intermedi-
ate years are interpolated.
11 Emissions Data
An important capability of MARKAL is the ability to esti-
mate the emissions that result from the various activities
represented in the RES. MARKAL has the capability to
estimate both the emissions of criteria pollutants as well as
greenhouse gas emissions.
11.1 Emissions from Electricity Generation
Emission factors associated with generating electricity are
listed in Tables 88-91. The CO2 emission factors used in
the model were taken from Table A-15 ofEPA(2003). SO2,
NOX, PM10, and VOC values were taken from the 1997
57
-------
Table 88. CO PM VOC, and NO Emission Factors from Generating Electricity as Used in the EPANMD.
Technology
CO,
PM10
VOC
NOX
NOX to Electric
LNBa retrofit SCRb retrofit
Existing Steam Electric
New Steam Electric
IGCC
Atmospheric Fluidized Bed
Pressurized Fluidized Bed
Molten Carbonate Fuel Cell
25.2
25.2
25.2
25.2
25.2
25.2
7.02
7.02
7.02
7.02
7.02
7.02
1.1744
1.1744
0.0292
0.0292
0.0292
0.0292
0.1935 0.1355
0.0215 —
0.0430 —
0.0215 —
0.0215 —
0.0000 —
0.0193
—
—
—
—
—
a LNB = low NOX burners.
b SCR = selective catalytic reduction.
Table 89. SO2 Emission Factors from Generating Electricity
as Used in the EPANMD.
Coal Sulfur Content
Technology Coal Type High Medium Low
New Steam Electric
New Steam Electric
New Steam Electric
Atmospheric
Fluidized Bed
Atmospheric
Fluidized Bed
Atmospheric
Fluidized Bed
IGCC
GCC
GCC
Molten Carbonate
Fuel Cell
Pressurized
Fluidized Bed
Pressurized
Fluidized Bed
Pressurized
Fluidized Bed
Bituminous
Lignite
Subbituminous
Bituminous
Lignite
Subbituminous
Bituminous
Lignite
Subbituminous
All
Bituminous
Lignite
Subbituminous
0.12
0.09
2.31
1.79
2.31
1.79
2.31
1.79
0.05
0.05
0.04
0.90
0.98
0.71
0.90
0.98
0.71
0.90
0.98
0.71
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.46
0.40
0.33
0.46
0.40
0.33
0.46
0.40
0.33
Table 90. Emission Factors from Coke as Used in the
EPANMD.
Technology Coal Type Sulfur content CO2
SO,
Coke Met. Low
Coke Met Medium
Imported Coke
25.0
25.0
24.7
0.420
0.530
Table 91. Emission Factors from Coal Gasification as Used
in the EPANMD.
Technology
CO,
High Btu Gasification
Medium Btu Gasification
In-Situ Gasification
25.2
25.2
25.2
DOE MARKAL database with updates by the EPA's Tim
Johnson, Joseph DeCarolis, and Samudra Vijay.
Both the Clean Air Act and more recent CAIR (Clean Air
Interstate Rule) impose emissions constraints on SOX and
NOX emissions from the electric power sector. Because coal
plants accounted for roughly 41% of total installed elec-
tric generation capacity in 1995 and account for the bulk
of electric sector SOX/NOX emissions, characterizing the
amount of coal capacity with pre-existing controls as well
as the cost and removal efficiency of new retrofits is ex-
tremely important to the overall performance of U.S. EPA's
MARKAL model.
11.1.1 Data Sources
• Energy Information Administration (EIA) Form 767.
See http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/page/
eia767.html
• EPA Clean Air Markets—Data and Maps.
See http://cfpub.epa.gov/gdm/
• For estimating abatement cost of the residual coal-
based power generation capacity, Coal Utility Envi-
ronmental Cost, Version 3.0 (CUECost, Ver 3.0), an
engineering-economic modeling tool developed by
National Risk Management Laboratory of EPA, was
used. CUECost can be used to estimate cost of retro-
fitting existing plants with NOX and SOX controls. The
CUECost estimates are claimed to be within rough-
order-of-magnitude (ROM) ±30% (accepted range for
budgetary estimates). More details of CueCost can be
found at
http: //www. epa.gov/ttn/catc/products .html#cccinfo
11.1.2 Modeling Structure
In U.S. EPA MARKAL, there are three coal types (bitumi-
nous, sub-bituminous, and lignite) as well as three sulfur
levels (high, medium, and low). Because the cost and per-
formance of SOX control technologies varies by both coal
type and sulfur levels, nine flue gas desulfurization (FGD)
processes are provided in the model. Because NOX emis-
sions are insensitive to sulfur level, each NOX control pro-
cess was specified separately for each of the three coal
types as illustrated in Figure 37.
58
-------
SECSTMBHPT
CSTMBLE1
SECSTMBMPT
SECSTMBLPT
CSTMBITE2
SECSTMBLNB
CSTMBITE3
SECSTMBSCR
SECSTMBSNC
SECSTMBPT
•SECSTMBSC2
•SECSTMBSN2
•SECSTMBPT2
-SECSTMBLS2
•SECSTMBLN2
CSTMBITE
ECOASTMB
a. Bituminous Coal Retrofits
CSTMSME1
CSTMSLE1
SECSTMSMFG
SECSTMSMPT
SECSTMSLPT
cSTMSUBE2
SECSTMSLNB
CSTMSUBE3
SECSTMSSCR
SECSTMSSNC
SECSTMSPT
-SECSTMSSC2
•SECSTMSSN2
•SECSTMSPT2
•SECSTMSLS2
-SECSTMSLN2
CSTMSUBE
ECOASTMS
b. Subbituminous Coal Retrofits
CSTMLHE1
SECSTMLHPT
SECSTMLMPT
CSTMLIGE2
SECSTMLLNB
CSTMLIGE3
c. Lignite Retrofits
Figure 37. RES for Coal Retrofits
SECSTMLSCR
SECSTMLSNC
SECSTMLPT
-SECSTMLSC2
•SECSTMLSN2
•SECSTMLPT2
-SECSTMLLS2
•SECSTMLLN2
59
CSTMLIGE
ECOASTML
-------
Note that no high-sulfur subbituminous coal exists and no
low sulfur lignite coal exists.
The set of processes on the left hand side of Figure 37
represent sulfur control. For each level of sulfur content
(high, medium, low), there are two options: FGD or a pass
through (no control). The process naming convention is
• First 3 letters: SEC, emissions accounting for coal-re-
lated processes.
• Letters 4-6: STM, because the retrofits are part of a
steam-based generation technology.
• Letter 7: Coal type, B=bituminous, S=subbituminous,
L=lignite.
• Letter 8: Sulfur level, H=high, M=medium, L=low.
• Letters 9-10: control technology, FG=FGD, PT=pass
through (no control).
After passing through the SOX control processes, the coal
energy carriers (CSTMBITE2, CSTMSUBE2,
CSTMLIGE2) enter the NOX control processes. There are
three NOX retrofit technologies explicitly captured in the
model: Low NOX burners (LNB), Selective Catalytic Re-
duction (SCR), and Selective Non-Catalytic Reduction
(SNCR). LNB is a boiler retrofit, while SCR and SNCR
operate on the flue gas. As a result, LNB can be used in
conjunction with SCR or SNCR.
As of 2000, significant LNB retrofits to coal steam plants
existed, but negligible amounts of SCR/SNCR were in-
stalled. As a result, residual LNB is characterized in the
model while residual SCR/SNCR is not. In a given time
period, if LNB is already installed, then SCR or SNCR can
also be installed. See the upper right of the MARKAL dia-
grams above. The naming convention for these NOX retro-
fits is
• First 3 letters: SEC, emissions accounting for coal-re-
lated processes.
• Letters 4-6: STM, because the retrofits are part of a
steam-based generation technology.
• Letter 7: Coal type, B=bituminous, S=subbituminous,
L=lignite.
• Letters 8-10: control technology, LNB=LNB,
SCR=SCR to supplement LNB, SNC=SNCR to
supplement LNB, PT=pass through (LNB only).
For the coal steam capacity that does not have LNB in-
stalled, there are several possible new retrofits: SCR only,
SNCR only, pass through, an LNB-SCR combination, and
an LNB-SNCR combination. The naming convention for
these NOX retrofits is
• First 3 letters: SEC, emissions accounting for coal-re-
lated processes.
• Letters 4-6: STM, because the retrofits are part of a
steam-based generation technology.
• Letter 7: Coal type, B=bituminous, S=subbituminous,
L=lignite.
• Letters 8-10: control technology, SC2=new SCR,
SN2=new SNCR, PT2=pass through (no control),
LS2=new LNB-SCR combination, and LN2=new
LNB-SNCR combination.
It is important to note that there are two possible pathways
to achieve combinations of LNB and SCR/SNCR. If LNB
is already installed, SCR and SNCR can be retrofitted later.
For example, in the case of bituminous coal, this possibil-
ity is represented by a combination of SECSTMBLNB and
SECSTMBSCR or SECSTMBSNC. Or LNB and SCR/
SNCR can be installed at the same time, which reduces the
cost through integrated planning.
After the NOX retrofits, the coal energy carrier
(bituminous=CSTMBITE, sub-bituminous=CSTMSUBE,
lignite=CSTMLIGE) proceeds to the coal steam plants,
ECOASTMB=bituminous,ECOASTMS=subbituminous,
and ECOASTML=lignite.
11.1.3 Methodology
Cost (capital and O&M) and emissions reductions for SOX
andNOx retrofit technologies were estimated and included
in the MARKAL representation shown above. Because the
data had to be sorted by coal type and sulfur level, several
data sources were required. The EPA Clean Air Markets
data included boiler-level emissions data, capacity, and a
description of installed control technology (if any) but did
not include coal type or sulfur content. EIA-Form 860 con-
tained the generator-level coal type and sulfur level, but
not the emissions data. Because EIA Form 860 contains
data on the generator level and EPA contains data on the
boiler level, it is not possible to make a one-to-one map-
ping between EIA and EPA data. Instead, the coal type and
coal sulfur content were drawn from the first generator
listed under each unique plant ID in the EIA data, then
associated with each of the boilers with the same plant ID
in the EPA data: a Java script was implemented to do the
matching, and the combined data set was saved as a comma-
delimited file.
SOX Control
Residual FGD/non-FGD capacity and emissions were es-
timated according to coal type, sulfur content, and pres-
ence of FGD using the autofilter feature in Excel. Sulfur
60
-------
content was divided into three categories: high (1.68 Ibs
SOx/MBtu), medium (between 0.6 and 1.68 Ibs SOX /
MBtu), and low ( 0.6 Ibs SOx/MBtu). Average SOX rates
were found by dividing the sum of the SOX emissions (tons)
from all boilers by the total heat generated by all boilers.
FGD/non-FGD capacity was determined by summing the
corresponding boiler capacities in millions of Btu per hour
and converting to petajoules per year.
NOX control
Residual LNB/non-LNB capacity and emissions were es-
timated according to coal type and the presence of LNB
using the autofilter feature in Excel. Negligible amounts
of SCR and SNCR existed prior to 2000, so their residual
capacity was not included. Any boiler capacity with retro-
fits not explicitly captured as a separate NOX control pro-
cesses in MARKAL—such as over-fire air and water in-
jection —were included under the "pass through" charac-
terization. Average NOX rates and NOX control capacity
were determined using the methodology described in the
preceding paragraph.
11.1.4 Estimating the Cost and Removal Efficiency
of New SOx/NOx Retrofits
To estimate both the capital and operating costs for new
retrofit capacity, the CueCost model was used. A script was
Table 92. SOX Control Data Summary.
written to estimate the retrofit costs for various SOX and
NOX control technologies for every boiler listed in the EPA
Clean Air Markets data. The script took the data for each
boiler listed in the EIA-EPA dataset and returned the retro-
fit cost and emissions rate for each of the SOX/NOX retro-
fits according to coal type and sulfur level (for SOX retro-
fits). Emissions rates and variable O&M costs were
weighted by the heat produced by each of the boilers, and
the capital costs were weighted by boiler capacities to cal-
culate representative values.
11.1.5 SOX Retrofit Data Summary
A summary of all the data associated with SOX retrofit is
shown in Table 89.
11.2 Biomass Emissions
The biomass emission factors used in the EPANMD and
listed in Table 93 were taken from the 1997 MARKAL
database.
Table 93. Biomass CO2 Emission Factors in the EPANMD..
Technology
CO2 Emission Factor
Biomass into NGA
Biomass into Methanol
NGA into Methanol
NGA to the Pipeline
-15.2
-19.1
8.536
0.634
Parameter
1995 Residual Capacity (PJ/yr)
2000 Residual Capacity (PJ/yr)
Equilibrium Emissions Rate (kT/PJ)
Capital Cost (M$/PJ/yr)
Variable O&M (M$/PJ)
Parameter
1995 Residual Capacity (PJ/yr)
2000 Residual Capacity (PJ/yr)
Equilibrium Emissions Rate (kT/PJ)
Capital Cost (M$/PJ/yr)
Variable O&M (M$/PJ)
Parameter
1995 Residual Capacity (PJ/yr)
2000 Residual Capacity (PJ/yr)
Equilibrium Emissions Rate (kT/PJ)
Capital Cost (M$/PJ/yr)
Variable O&M (M$/PJ)
High Sulfur
FGD Pass
(SECSTMBHFG) (SECSTMBHPT)
2611
3160
0.034 0.67
2.55
0.327
High Sulfur
FGD Pass
N/A
N/A
N/A N/A
N/A
N/A
High Sulfur
FGD Pass
(SECSTMLHFG) (SECSTMLHPT)
63
149
0.023 0.71
1.85
0.237
Bituminous Coal
Medium Sulfur
FGD Pass
(SECSTMBMFG) (SECSTMBMPT)
1226
1313
0.02 0.39
2.11
0.264
Subbituminous Coal
Medium Sulfur
FGD Pass
(SECSTMSMFG) (SECSTMSMPT)
461
1684
0.012 0.23
1.83
0.192
Lignite
Medium Sulfur
FGD Pass
(SECSTMLMFG) (SECSTMLMPT)
306
1047
0.016 0.36
1.69
0.237
Low Sulfur
FGD Pass
(SECSTMBLFG) (SECSTMBLPT)
1123
1093
0.0095 0.19
2.29
0.316
Low Sulfur
FGD Pass
(SECSTMSLFG) (SECSTMSLPT)
1350
1718
0.0075 0.13
1.97
0.245
Low Sulfur
FGD Pass
N/A
N/A
N/A N/A
N/A
N/A
61
-------
11.3 Commercial and Residential Emissions
For SO2, NOX, PM10, and VOCs, the actual pollutant emis-
sions in 1999 were taken from the EPA national inventory
along with the actual energy consumption from EIA in
1999. Emission factors were obtained by dividing actual
emissions by actual energy consumption. Where no pol-
lutant information was provided, default IPCC emission
factors were used. For LPG, AP-42 emission factors were
used. For CO2, IPCC emissions factors were used. The resi-
dential emission factors are listed in Table 94 and the com-
mercial in Table 95 .
T«^l^l^ O/l D^<-ii/"I^M"^+io 1 d*\t i <-i <-i i /-\ r\ Cor^+rtKo /ii-^ II^/IV /IIV /IC2+I i\ i i<-i^/"l
Table 97. Additional Industrial EPANMD Emission
(in Ib/MMBtu).
1999 Fuel
Coal
Met. Coal to Coking
Residual Fuel Oil
Diesel (distillate)
Gasoline
LPG
Misc. Petroleum
Natural Gas
Hydrocarb. Petrochem.
Feedstock
Biomass
S02
1 .5072
N/A
4.3227
0.3213
0.3213
0.0000
0.3213
0.1409
N/A
0.0000
NOX
0.6225
N/A
0.9106
0.1484
0.1484
0.2077
0.1484
0.2940
N/A
0.2326
PM10
0.0849
N/A
0.2607
0.0113
0.0113
0.0066
0.0113
0.0104
N/A
0.0708
Factors
VOCs
0.0079
N/A
0.0770
0.1051
0.1051
0.0033
0.1051
0.0147
N/A
0.1163
in the EPANMD.
Fuel
SO2
NOX
PM10
VOCs
CO2
Natural Gas
Coal
Distillate Fuel Oil
LPG
Kerosene
Wood
0.0067
5.9358
0.1474
0.0011
0.1474
0.0279
0.1756
1.1088
0.2643
0.01421
0.2643
0.1991
0.0051
0.5200
0.0315
0.0019
0.0315
2.1207
Table 95. Commercial Emission Factors (in
in the EPANMD.
Fuel S02 NOX PM10
Natural Gas
Coal
Distillate Fuel Oil
LPG
Residual Fuel Oil
Biomass
0.0067
5.9358
0.8262
0.0000
4.3227
0.0279
0.1680
1.1088
0.2652
0.2077
0.9106
0.1991
0.0051
0.5200
0.0315
0.0044
0.2607
2.1207
0.0093
0.0278
0.0090
0.0055
0.0090
2.9964
129.7490
215.4939
168.7544
136.6120
168.7544
0.0000
Ib/MMBtu) used
VOCs C02
0.0093
0.0278
0.0090
0.0033
0.0770
2.9964
129.7490
215.4939
168.7544
136.6120
168.7544
0.0000
11.4 Industrial Emissions
For CO2 emission factors, listed in Table 96, data were
taken from Jaques,A.P, 1992, and Jaques,A., etal., 1997.
Emission factors for SO2, NOX, PM10, and VOCs, listed in
Table 97, the actual pollutant emissions in 1999 were taken
from the EPA national inventory along with the actual en-
ergy consumption from EIA in 1999. Emission factors were
obtained by dividing actual emission by actual energy con-
sumption. Where no pollutant information was provided,
default IPCC emission factors were used. For LPG, AP-42
emission factors were used.
11.5 Transportation Emissions
Vehicle emissions depend on fuel, propulsion technology
(e.g., internal combustion engine or fuel cell), emissions
control devices, and vehicle age (cumulative miles trav-
eled) through degradation of control equipment. Because
the existing vehicles represented the fleet as of the model
start year, emissions from these vehicles will also change
over time due to the earlier retirement of older, more pol-
luting vehicles.
Emissions factors for existing vehicles were calculated from
actual 1995 light-duty vehicle fleet emissions based on the
EPA, 2000b. Vehicle stock turnover and annual VMT by
vintage were calculated based on information from the
Energy Information Administration (EIA, 1998,2003a) and
the Transportation Energy Data Book, Edition 21 (Davis,
2001). Degradation estimates were based on a variety of
sources, depending on the pollutant, including the EPA
Federal Test Procedure, EPA's Mobile 6 model (EPA, 1999,
200 la), and the American Council for an Energy Efficient
Economy (ACEEE) Green Book methodology (DeCicco,
J. and Kliesch,J., 2001).
For new internal combustion engine and hybrid vehicles,
emissions factors were based on standards specifications
for Tier 1, Low Emissions Vehicles (LEV), Ultra Low
Emissions Vehicles (ULEV), Super Ultra Low Emissions
Vehicles (SULEV), and Tier 2 compliant vehicles (EPA,
2000a). For Tier 2 compliant vehicles, emissions factors
were derived from the Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emis-
sions, and Energy Use in Transportation (GREET) model,
developed by the Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne
National Labs, 2001). All hybrid vehicles were assumed
to be SULEV compliant. For all other internal combustion
Table 96. Industrial CO2 Emission Factors in the EPANMD.
Commodity Description Units INDNGA INDLPG INDCOA INDCOK INDBFG INDHFO INDOIL INDETH INDNAP INDPTC INDBIO
INDC02N
INDCH4N
INDN20N
CO2
industrial CO2 ktonne 15.200
Industrial CH4 tonne 0.130
Industrial N2O tonne 0.620
ICO2 MtonneC 0.015
16.364
1.180
9.000
0.016
25.200
0.542
1.805
0.025
25.200
0.542
1.805
0.025
25.200
0.542
1.805
0.025
20.182
0.720
3.110
0.020
19.170
2.143
3.836
0.019
15.200
0.127
0.620
0.015
19.279
1.320
3.360
0.019
27.300
0.542
1.805
0.027
0.584
0.020
8.647
0.001
62
-------
engine (ICE) vehicles, a mix of compliance levels was as-
sumed based on national and state regulations. Degrada-
tion estimates were based on the Jvlobile 6 model EPA s
Tier 2/Sulfur analysis (EPA 200 Ib), and the ACEEE Green
Book methodology. The various transportation emission
factors are listed in Tables 98 through 103.
Table 98. Airplane Emission Factors.
C02 NOX SOX VOC
ruel Mt/bpma kt/bpm kt/bpm kt/bpm
Jet Fuel 0.119 0.64 0.0044 0.04
Gasoline 0.192 0.18 0.0044 1.19
a bpm = billion passenger miles
Table 99. Bus Emission Factors.
C02 NOX SOX VOC
Mt/bvmta kt/bvmt kt/bvmt kt/bvmt
Methanol 0.019 0.009
CNG 0.002 15.715 0.064 3.069
DSL 0.020 0.012 62.559
GSL 0.019 0.009
a bvmt = billion vehicle miles traveled
Table 100. Passenger Rail Emission Factors.
DSL Fuel C°2 N0x S0x VOC
uoi. ruei Mt/bvmta kt/bvmt kt/bvmt kt/bvmt
Commuter Rail 0.128 0.145 0.003 3.723
Inter-city Rail 0.094 0.145 0.003 3.723
a bvmt = billion vehicle miles traveled
Table 101. Shipping Emission Factors.
C02 NOX SOX VOC
Mt/bvmta kt/bvmt kt/bvmt kt/bvmt
Rail Freight, DSL 0.086 0.145 0.003 3.723
Shipping, Fuel Oil 0.169 0.168 0.575 5.136
Shipping, DSL 0.162 0.250 0.017 9.846
a bvmt = billion vehicle miles traveled
Table 102. Heavy Truck Emission Factors.
Fll-l C02 NOX PM10
Mt/bvmta kt/bvmt kt/bvmt
GSL, existing 0.445 11.483 0.257
GSL, new 0.415 10.865
DSL, existing 0.476 16.097 0.521
DSL, 2000 0.444 14.101
DSL, 2000, imp mpg (20%) 0.370 14.101
DSL, 2000, imp mpg (40%) 0.317 14.101
DSL, 2010 0.416 0.429
DSL, 2010, imp mpg (10%) 0.380 0.429
DSL, 2010, imp mpg (20%) 0.346 0.429
DSL, 2020 0.386 0.429
DSL, 2020, imp mpg (10%) 0.350 0.429
DSL, 2020, imp mpg (20%) 0.321 0.429
LPG 0.383 15.715
Methanol 0.000 15.715
CNG 0.321 15.715
Table 103. Light Duty Vehicle Emission
Fuel
TLC2HYB05
TLC2HYB10
TLC2HYB15
TLC2HYB20
TLC2HYB25
TLC2HYB30
TLC2HYB35
TLC3HYB15
TLC3HYB20
TLC3HYB25
TLC3HYB30
TLC3HYB35
TLCADSL05
TLCADSL10
TLCADSL15
TI c1 A nci on
1 LUAUoL^U
TLCADSL25
TLCADSL30
TLCADSL35
TI C1 AMDOI n
1 LUAIVI r Ij 1 U
TLCAMPG15
TLCAMPG20
TLCAMPG25
TLCAMPG30
TLCAMPG35
TLCCNG05
TLCCNG10
TLCCNXOO
TLCCNX10
TLCCNX20
TLCCONVOO
TLCCONV05
TLCCONV10
TLCCONV15
TLCCONV20
TLCCONV25
TLCCONV30
TLCCONV35
TLCELC05
TLCELC10
a bvmt = billion
SOX
kt/bvmt
0.174
0.030
0.140
0.206
0.206
0.206
0.009
0.009
0.009
0.009
0.009
0.009
0.048
0.064
0.032
C02
Mt/bvmta
0.071
0.057
0.052
0.048
0.044
0.044
0.043
0.039
0.033
0.030
0.029
0.029
0.076
0.072
0.071
n n"7 1
U.U/ 1
0.070
0.069
0.069
n ncQ
U.Uoo
0.057
0.057
0.056
0.056
0.055
0.078
0.074
0.089
0.079
0.078
0.103
0.096
0.091
0.090
0.089
0.089
0.088
0.087
0.000
0.000
NOX
kt/bvmt
0.056
0.056
0.056
0.056
0.056
0.056
0.056
0.056
0.056
0.056
0.056
0.056
0.265
0.265
0.265
Oooc
.^;bo
0.265
0.265
0.265
n OQ"7
U.^io /
0.287
0.287
0.288
0.288
0.288
0.248
0.248
0.365
0.257
0.099
0.717
0.287
0.287
0.287
0.287
0.288
0.288
0.288
0.000
0.000
PM10
kt/bvmt
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.020
0.020
0.020
n non
U.U^U
0.020
0.020
0.020
n n i o
u.uiy
0.019
0.019
0.018
0.018
0.018
0.001
0.001
0.005
0.005
0.006
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.018
0.018
0.018
0.000
0.000
Factors
sox
kt/bvmt
0.015
0.015
0.015
0.015
0.015
0.015
0.015
0.015
0.015
0.015
0.015
0.015
0.059
0.059
0.059
n nco
u.uoy
0.059
0.059
0.059
n ni c
U.U1 o
0.015
0.015
0.015
0.015
0.015
0.001
0.001
0.004
0.004
0.004
0.015
0.015
0.015
0.015
0.015
0.015
0.015
0.015
0.000
0.000
VOC
kt/bvmt
0.033
0.033
0.033
0.033
0.033
0.033
0.033
0.033
0.033
0.033
0.033
0.033
0.560
0.560
0.560
n cftn
U.obU
0.560
0.560
0.560
01 OQ
.1 Ł6
0.123
0.123
0.122
0.122
0.122
0.045
0.045
0.120
0.064
0.075
0.345
0.123
0.123
0.123
0.123
0.122
0.122
0.122
0.000
0.000
vehicle miles traveled
VOC
kt/bvmt
6.034
1.726
1.497
0.852
0.852
0.852
0.258
0.258
0.258
0.258
0.258
0.258
4.158
4.853
3.069
continued
1 bvmt = billion vehicle miles traveled
63
-------
Table 103
Factors.
Ciirtl
ruci
TLCETHX05
TLCETHX10
TLCETHX15
TLCETHX20
TLCETHX25
TLCETHX30
TLCETHX35
TLCFCH20
TLCFCH25
TLCFCM10
TLCFCM20
TLCLPGXOO
TLCLPGX10
TLCLPGX20
TLCMMPG10
TLCMMPG15
TLCMMPG20
TLCMMPG25
TLCMMPG30
TLCMMPG35
TLCMTHXOO
TLCMTHX10
TLCMTHX20
TLECGSL
TLEFDSL
TLEFGSL
TLEMGSL
TLEPDSL
TLEPGSL
TLESGSL
TLF2HYB05
TLF2HYB10
TLF2HYB15
TLF2HYB20
TLF2HYB25
TLF2HYB30
TLF2HYB35
TLF3HYB10
TLF3HYB15
TLF3HYB20
TLF3HYB35
TLF3HYB30
TLF3HYB35
TLFADSL05
TLFADSL10
TLFADSL15
TLFADSL20
TLFADSL25
TLFADSL30
TLFADSL35
TLFAMMP10
TLFAMMP15
TLFAMMP20
TLFAMMP25
TLFAMMP30
TLFAMMP35
(continued). Light Duty Vehicle Emission
C02
Mt/bvmta
0.099
0.094
0.094
0.094
0.094
0.094
0.094
0.000
0.000
0.045
0.040
0.101
0.090
0.087
0.064
0.064
0.063
0.062
0.062
0.061
0.101
0.089
0.085
0.104
0.115
0.119
0.120
0.148
0.145
0.152
0.074
0.065
0.059
0.054
0.050
0.050
0.050
0.052
0.045
0.038
0.034
0.033
0.033
0.084
0.080
0.079
0.078
0.077
0.076
0.076
0.060
0.059
0.058
0.058
0.057
0.057
NOX
kt/bvmt
0.248
0.248
0.248
0.248
0.248
0.248
0.248
0.000
0.000
0.007
0.007
0.365
0.257
0.099
0.287
0.287
0.287
0.288
0.288
0.288
0.248
0.248
0.036
1.752
3.531
1.752
1.314
3.531
1.857
1.340
0.056
0.056
0.056
0.056
0.056
0.056
0.056
0.056
0.056
0.056
0.056
0.056
0.056
0.265
0.265
0.265
0.265
0.265
0.265
0.265
0.287
0.287
0.287
0.287
0.287
0.287
PM10
kt/bvmt
0.005
0.005
0.005
0.005
0.005
0.005
0.005
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.006
0.006
0.006
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.018
0.018
0.018
0.005
0.005
0.006
0.030
0.673
0.030
0.031
0.757
0.039
0.018
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.020
0.020
0.020
0.020
0.020
0.020
0.020
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
sox
kt/bvmt
0.005
0.005
0.005
0.005
0.005
0.005
0.005
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.004
0.004
0.004
0.015
0.015
0.015
0.015
0.015
0.015
0.005
0.005
0.003
0.032
0.225
0.032
0.038
0.253
0.040
0.036
0.015
0.015
0.015
0.015
0.015
0.015
0.015
0.015
0.015
0.015
0.015
0.015
0.015
0.059
0.059
0.059
0.059
0.059
0.059
0.059
0.015
0.015
0.015
0.015
0.015
0.015
voc
kt/bvmt
0.176
0.176
0.176
0.176
0.176
0.176
0.176
0.000
0.000
0.038
0.038
0.144
0.088
0.080
0.123
0.123
0.123
0.122
0.122
0.122
0.176
0.176
0.125
2.949
0.912
2.949
2.953
2.279
3.412
2.912
0.033
0.033
0.033
0.033
0.033
0.033
0.033
0.033
0.033
0.033
0.033
0.033
0.033
0.560
0.560
0.560
0.560
0.560
0.560
0.560
0.123
0.123
0.123
0.123
0.123
0.123
Table 103
Factors.
Fuel
TLFCNG05
TLFCNG10
TLFCNGXOO
TLFCNGX10
TLFCNGX20
TLFCONVOO
TLFCONV05
TLFCONV10
TLFCONV15
TLFCONV20
TLFCONV25
TLFCONV30
TLFCONV35
TLFCELC10
TLFETHXOO
TLFETHX10
TLFFCG10
TLFFCG20
TLFFCG25
TLFFCH20
TLFFCH25
TLFFCM10
TLFFCM20
TLFLPGXOO
TLFLPGX10
TLFLPGX20
TLFMMPG10
TLFMMPG15
TLFMMPG20
TLFMMPG25
TLFMMPG30
TLFMMPG35
TLFMTHXOO
TLFMTHX10
TLFMTHX20
TLM2HYB10
TLM2HYB15
TLM2HYB20
TLM2HYB25
TLM2HYB30
TLM2HYB35
TLM3HYB15
TLM3HYB20
TLM3HYB25
TLM3HYB30
TLM3HYB35
TLMADSL10
TLMADSL15
TLMADSL20
TLMADSL25
TLMADSL30
TLMADSL35
TLMAMPG10
TLMAMPG15
TLMAMPG20
TLMAMPG25
(continued). Light Duty Vehicle Emission
C02
Mt/bvmta
0.090
0.085
0.098
0.090
0.090
0.118
0.110
0.105
0.103
0.102
0.101
0.100
0.099
0.000
0.122
0.108
0.051
0.045
038
0.000
0.000
0.052
0.046
0.108
0.103
0.100
0.067
0.066
0.065
0.065
0.064
0.063
0.116
0.102
0.098
0.072
0.064
0.058
0.054
0.055
0.055
0.054
0.047
0.036
0.036
0.036
0.087
0.085
0.083
0.083
0.083
0.084
0.062
0.060
0.058
0.059
NOX
kt/bvmt
0.248
0.248
0.365
0.365
0.206
0.717
0.287
0.287
0.287
0.287
0.288
0.288
0.288
0.000
0.248
0.248
0.007
0.007
0.007
0.000
0.000
0.007
0.007
0.248
0.248
0.036
0.287
0.287
0.287
0.288
0.288
0.288
0.248
0.248
0.036
0.057
0.057
0.057
0.057
0.057
0.057
0.057
0.057
0.057
0.057
0.057
0.493
0.493
0.493
0.493
0.493
0.493
0.196
0.196
0.196
0.194
PM10
kt/bvmt
0.001
0.001
0.005
0.005
0.006
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.018
0.018
0.018
0.000
0.005
0.005
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.018
0.018
0.018
0.005
0.005
0.006
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.044
0.044
0.044
0.044
0.044
0.044
0.028
0.028
0.028
0.027
sox
kt/bvmt
0.001
0.001
0.004
0.004
0.004
0.015
0.015
0.015
0.015
0.015
0.015
0.015
0.015
0.000
0.005
0.005
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.015
0.015
0.015
0.015
0.015
0.015
0.005
0.005
0.003
0.021
0.021
0.021
0.021
0.021
0.021
0.021
0.021
0.021
0.021
0.021
0.080
0.080
0.080
0.080
0.080
0.080
0.021
0.021
0.021
0.021
VOC
kt/bvmt
0.045
0.045
0.120
0.120
0.130
0.345
0.123
0.123
0.123
0.123
0.122
0.122
0.122
0.000
0.176
0.176
0.057
0.057
0.057
0.000
0.000
0.038
0.038
0.077
0.077
0.065
0.123
0.123
0.123
0.122
0.122
0.122
0.176
0.176
0.125
0.169
0.169
0.169
0.169
0.169
0.169
0.169
0.169
0.169
0.169
0.169
0.872
0.872
0.872
0.872
0.872
0.872
0.545
0.545
0.545
0.545
' bvmt = billion vehicle miles traveled
1 bvmt = billion vehicle miles traveled
continued
continued
64
-------
Table 103 (continued). Light Duty Vehicle Emission
Factors.
Table 103 (continued). Light Duty Vehicle Emission
Factors.
Ciidl
huei
TLMAMPG30
TLMAMPG35
TLMCNG05
TLMCNG15
TLMCNGXOO
TLMCNGX10
TLMCNGX20
TLMCONVOO
TLMCONV05
TLMCONV10
TLMCONV15
TLMCONV20
TLMCONV25
TLMCONV30
TLMCONV35
TLMELC10
TLMELC20
TLMETHXOO
TLMETHX10
TLMETHX20
TLMFCG10
TLMFCG15
TLMFCG20
TLMFCH15
TLMFCH20
TLMFCH25
TLMFCM10
TLMFCM20
TLMLPGXOO
TLMLPGX10
TLMLPGX20
TLMMMPG10
TLMMMPG15
TLMMMPG20
TLMMMPG25
TLMMMPG30
TLMMMPG35
TLMMTHXOO
TLMMTHX10
TLMMTHX20
TLP2HYB10
TLP2HYB15
TLP2HYB20
TLP2HYB25
TLP2HYB30
TLP2HYB35
TLP3HYB20
TLP3HYB25
TLP3HYB30
TLP3HYB35
TLPADSL05
TLPADSL10
TLPADSL15
TLPADSL20
TLPADSL25
TLPADSL30
CO2
Mt/bvmta
0.059
0.059
0.096
0.090
0.104
0.103
0.098
0.120
0.118
0.115
0.111
0.108
0.109
0.109
0.109
0.000
0.000
0.125
0.119
0.112
0.060
0.054
0.048
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.061
0.049
0.118
0.115
0.106
0.074
0.074
0.070
0.070
0.070
0.071
0.118
0.112
0.103
0.081
0.076
0.069
0.065
0.065
0.065
0.053
0.043
0.043
0.043
0.108
0.104
0.101
0.098
0.099
0.099
NOX
kt/bvmt
0.194
0.194
0.541
0.060
0.524
0.454
0.163
0.472
0.196
0.196
0.196
0.196
0.194
0.194
0.194
0.000
0.000
0.499
0.499
0.499
0.012
0.012
0.012
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.012
0.012
0.499
0.499
0.060
0.196
0.196
0.196
0.194
0.194
0.194
0.499
0.499
0.060
0.103
0.103
0.103
0.103
0.103
0.103
0.103
0.103
0.103
0.103
0.493
0.493
0.493
0.493
0.493
0.493
PM10
kt/bvmt
0.027
0.027
0.001
0.002
0.008
0.008
0.009
0.028
0.028
0.028
0.028
0.028
0.027
0.027
0.027
0.000
0.000
0.006
0.006
0.006
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.028
0.028
0.028
0.027
0.027
0.027
0.006
0.006
0.007
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.044
0.044
0.044
0.044
0.044
0.044
sox
kt/bvmt
0.021
0.021
0.001
0.001
0.006
0.006
0.006
0.021
0.021
0.021
0.021
0.021
0.021
0.021
0.021
0.000
0.000
0.007
0.007
0.007
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.021
0.021
0.021
0.021
0.021
0.021
0.007
0.007
0.004
0.021
0.021
0.021
0.021
0.021
0.021
0.021
0.021
0.021
0.021
0.080
0.080
0.080
0.080
0.080
0.080
voc
kt/bvmt
0.545
0.545
0.085
0.062
0.376
0.200
0.359
1.249
0.545
0.545
0.545
0.545
0.545
0.545
0.545
0.000
0.000
0.268
0.268
0.268
0.060
0.060
0.060
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.040
0.040
0.172
0.172
0.071
0.545
0.545
0.545
0.545
0.545
0.545
0.268
0.268
0.133
0.328
0.328
0.328
0.328
0.328
0.328
0.328
0.328
0.328
0.328
0.872
0.872
0.872
0.872
0.872
0.872
Fuel
TLPADSL35
TLPAMPG10
TLPAMPG15
TLPAMPG20
TLPAMPG25
TLPAMPG30
TLPAMPG35
TLPCNG05
TLPCNG15
TLPCNGXOO
TLPCNGX10
TLPCNGX20
TLPCONVOO
TLPCONV05
TLPCONV10
TLPCONV15
TLPCONV20
TLPCONV25
TLPCONV30
TLPCONV35
TLPELC05
TLPELC15
TLPELC25
TLPETHX05
TLPETHX10
TLPETHX20
TLPFCH15
TLPFCH20
TLPFCH25
TLPFCM10
TLPFCM20
TLPLPGXOO
TLPLPGX10
TLPLPGX20
TLPMMPG10
TLPMMPG15
TLPMMPG20
TLPMMPG25
TLPMMPG30
TLPMMPG35
TLPMTHXOO
TLPMTHX10
TLPMTHX20
TLS2HYB05
TLS2HYB10
TLS2HYB15
TLS2HYB20
TLS2HYB25
TLS2HYB30
TLS2HYB35
TLS3HYB15
TLS3HYB20
TLS3HYB25
TLS3HYB30
TLS3HYB35
TLSADSL05
C02
Mt/bvmta
0.100
0.085
0.082
0.080
0.080
0.081
0.081
0.116
0.107
0.127
0.120
0.115
0.146
0.141
0.136
0.132
0.129
0.129
0.130
0.130
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.146
0.141
0.134
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.073
0.062
0.144
0.135
0.126
0.100
0.097
0.094
0.094
0.095
0.095
0.144
0.134
0.123
0.108
0.088
0.078
0.071
0.067
0.067
0.068
0.068
0.058
0.045
0.045
0.045
0.112
NOX
kt/bvmt
0.493
0.209
0.209
0.209
0.208
0.208
0.208
0.932
0.106
0.812
0.812
0.193
0.454
0.209
0.209
0.209
0.209
0.208
0.208
0.208
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.807
0.807
0.807
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.021
0.021
0.807
0.807
0.106
0.209
0.209
0.209
0.208
0.208
0.208
0.807
0.807
0.106
0.156
0.156
0.156
0.156
0.156
0.156
0.156
0.156
0.156
0.156
0.156
0.156
0.493
PM10
kt/bvmt
0.044
0.028
0.028
0.028
0.027
0.027
0.027
0.001
0.003
0.008
0.008
0.010
0.028
0.028
0.028
0.028
0.028
0.027
0.027
0.027
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.006
0.006
0.006
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.028
0.028
0.028
0.027
0.027
0.027
0.006
0.006
0.010
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.044
sox
kt/bvmt
0.080
0.021
0.021
0.021
0.021
0.021
0.021
0.001
0.001
0.006
0.006
0.006
0.021
0.021
0.021
0.021
0.021
0.021
0.021
0.021
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.007
0.007
0.007
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.021
0.021
0.021
0.021
0.021
0.021
0.007
0.007
0.004
0.020
0.020
0.020
0.020
0.020
0.020
0.020
0.020
0.020
0.020
0.020
0.020
0.080
VOC
kt/bvmt
0.872
0.511
0.511
0.511
0.513
0.513
0.513
0.159
0.068
0.387
0.387
0.320
1.074
0.511
0.511
0.511
0.511
0.513
0.513
0.513
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.467
0.467
0.467
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.044
0.044
0.348
0.348
0.081
0.511
0.511
0.511
0.513
0.513
0.513
0.467
0.467
0.148
0.054
0.054
0.054
0.054
0.054
0.054
0.054
0.054
0.054
0.054
0.054
0.054
0.872
1 bvmt = billion vehicle miles traveled
' bvmt = billion vehicle miles traveled
continued
continued
65
-------
Table 103
Factors.
Fuel
TLSADSL10
TLSADSL15
TLSADSL20
TLSADSL25
TLSADSL30
TLSADSL35
TLSAMPG10
TLSAMPG15
TLSAMPG20
TLSAMPG25
TLSAMPG30
TLSAMPG35
TLSCNG05
TLSCNG15
TLSCNGXOO
TLSCNGX10
TLSCNGX20
TLSCONVOO
TLSCONV05
TLSCONV10
TLSCONV15
TLSCONV20
TLSCONV25
TLSCONV30
TLSCONV35
TLSELC10
TLSELC20
TLSETHX05
TLSETHX15
TLSFCG10
TLSFCG20
TLSFCH15
TLSFCH20
TLSFCH25
TLSFCM10
TLSFCM20
TLSLPGXOO
TLSLPGX10
TLSLPGX20
TLSMMPG10
TLSMMPG15
TLSMMPG20
TLSMMPG25
TLSMMPG30
TLSMMPG35
TLSMTHXOO
TLSMTHX10
TLSMTHX20
(concluded). Light Duty
CO2
Mt/bvmta
0.107
0.104
0.102
0.102
0.103
0.103
0.071
0.069
0.067
0.068
0.068
0.068
0.120
0.110
0.132
0.124
0.119
0.153
0.146
0.141
0.137
0.134
0.134
0.135
0.135
0.000
0.000
0.152
0.138
0.075
0.0064
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.076
0.064
0.150
0.140
0.130
0.083
0.080
0.079
0.079
0.079
0.079
0.156
0.142
0.132
NOX
kt/bvmt
0.493
0.493
0.493
0.493
0.493
0.493
0.508
0.508
0.508
0.508
0.508
0.508
0.512
0.056
0.564
0.456
0.114
1.151
0.508
0.508
0.508
0.508
0.508
0.508
0.508
0.000
0.000
0.477
0.056
0.011
0.011
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.011
0.011
0.477
0.477
0.056
0.508
0.508
0.508
0.508
0.508
0.508
0.477
0.477
0.056
PM10
kt/bvmt
0.044
0.044
0.044
0.044
0.044
0.044
0.028
0.028
0.028
0.027
0.027
0.027
0.001
0.002
0.005
0.005
0.006
0.028
0.028
0.028
0.028
0.028
0.027
0.027
0.027
0.000
0.000
0.006
0.007
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.028
0.028
0.028
0.027
0.027
0.027
0.006
0.006
0.007
Vehicle Emission
sox
kt/bvmt
0.080
0.080
0.080
0.080
0.080
0.080
0.020
0.020
0.020
0.020
0.020
0.020
0.001
0.001
0.005
0.005
0.004
0.020
0.020
0.020
0.020
0.020
0.020
0.020
0.020
0.000
0.000
0.006
0.004
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.020
0.020
0.020
0.020
0.020
0.020
0.007
0.007
0.004
voc
kt/bvmt
0.872
0.872
0.872
0.872
0.872
0.872
0.186
0.186
0.186
0.185
0.185
0.185
0.079
0.062
0.146
0.090
0.077
0.449
0.186
0.186
0.186
0.186
0.185
0.185
0.185
0.000
0.000
0.254
0.132
0.059
0.059
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.040
0.040
0.160
0.160
0.070
0.186
0.186
0.186
0.185
0.185
0.185
0.254
0.254
0.132
National Resources Council (NRC) report entitled The H2
Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs.
Note: Users are required to select MARKAL + ETL +
Lumpy Investment model variants when running the H2
i i i
submodule.
12.1 Hydrogen RES
Potential H2 pathways, from feedstock to end-use by H2-
FCVs, are shown in Figure 38. Note: CCS stands for car-
bon capture and sequestration technologies.
12.2 Hydrogen Production Technologies
12.2.1 Energy Consumption and Investment Costs
The NRC report (National Research Council, 2004) as-
sumes three scales of H2 production: central plant, midsize
plant, and onsite generation at the refueling station. For
each pathway, the capital cost of H2 production technolo-
gies is calculated as the sum of the production (including
compression), distribution (e.g., liquefaction, storage, pipe-
line cost, and liquid H2 tanker cost), and dispensing costs
(e.g., compression, storage, and dispensing). The produc-
tion pathways are summarized in Table 1 04. Other detailed
assumptions on the plant size, configuration, fuel trans-
portation and storage, cost, and emissions can be found in
Appendix E of NRC, 2004.
The H2 production technologies are integrated into the in-
dustrial sector of the model. Thus, feedstock usage and
emissions are attributed to that sector. Electricity required
in H2 production, in contrast, is produced by the electricity
generation sector of the model. Thus, fuel usage and emis-
sions associated with grid electricity are captured in that
sector. The lifetime of the hydrogen production technolo-
gies are 40, 30, and 20 years for central, midsize, and onsite
generation plant, respectively. Energy inputs and invest-
ment costs for hydrogen production technologies are listed
in Table 105.
12.2.2 Emissions
The values of emissions associated with hvdrosen nroduc-
a bvmt = billion vehicle miles traveled
12 Hydrogen Use in the Transporta-
tion Sector
The enhancement of the EPANMD with the hydrogen in-
frastructure represents the addition of a set of new tech-
nologies to the database. The H2 production module incor-
porates H2 pathway and cost data provided in the 2004
tion technologies and listed in Table 106 are taken from
Contadini, et al., 2000; S&T Consultants Inc., 2003; and
Mann, M., and P. L. Spath, 1997. The unit of emissions is
kilotonnes per petajoule except CO2 emission which are in
million tonnes per petajoule. There is no information avail-
able on the emissions of hydrogen technologies with car-
bon capture and sequestration (CCS). These technologies
include steam methane reforming (SMR), coal gasifica-
tion, and biomass for hydrogen production. Thus, the emis-
66
-------
1 ELC [«_
Natural Gas
Coal
Biomass
Solar
Wind
Nuclear
Diesel
Oil
"
f
L
•>
ELC
r
ELC
ELC
r
-\ r
ELC
r
ELC;
ELC
. Steam
— 1 Reforming
-vT Coal
— [Gasification
1
T
1 C.
T
1 — e.
* Steam "" ^
-^1 Reforming |
V Bio
-vi Gasification
^1 Electrolysis/
* Steam
ELC^LLtIllD"LlL
t
1 C
t
T
t
lydrogen to
^rans. Sector
~\
^
•>
-\
i
-41 H'FCV I
11 - Compact ||
_J H2FCV L.._
~1 -Full ||
^H2FCV 1 j
- Mimvan ||
HH2FCV |
-Pickup |
HH2 FCV |
-SUV |
1 CCS |
1 (optional) 1 | | Energy ]
+
Personal Automotive
End Use Demand
"jj Centr
1 !" "i Process ! "i Mids
1 L 1 L 1
| | Demand [1 | Ons te
Figure 38. Hydrogen RES.
Table 104. Hydrogen Production Pathways.
Scale
Primary Energy Source Production Method
1 Source: modified from National Research Council, 2004.
' GH2 = gaseous H2.
: CCS = carbon capture and sequestration.
1 LH2 = liquid H2.
Options for Carbon
Capture
Abbreviation
Centrtal Station (GH2b)
Midsize (LH26)
Distributed (GH2)
Natural gas
Coal
Natural gas
Biomass
Electricity (grid)
Natural gas
Electricity (grid)
Wind
Wind and grid hybrid
Solar
Solar and grid hybrid
Steam reforming
Gasification
Steam reforming
Gasification
Electrolysis
Steam reforming
Electrolysis
Electrolysis
Electrolysis
Electrolysis
Electrolysis
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
CSMR, CSMRCCSC
CCG, CCGCCS
MSMR, MSMRCCS
MBIO, MBIOCCS
MELE
DMSR
DELE
DWT
DWTELE
DPV
DPVELE
Table 105. Energy Inputs and Investment Costs for Hydrogen Production Technologies.
Technology
H2CSMR
H2CSMRCCS
H2CCG
H2CCGCCS
H2MSMR
H2MSMRCCS
H2MBIO
H2MBIOCCS
H2MELE
H2DSMR
H2DELE
H2DWT
H2DPV
H2DWTELE
H2DPVELE
INVCOST FIXOM
AF (Million 1995$/(PJ/yr (Million
capacity)) 1995$/(PJ/yr))
0.98
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.98
0.98
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.27
0.18
0.9
0.9
34.08
36.37
44.77
46.13
67.33
74.15
155.03
157.56
123.07
82.63
112.00
89.61
86.33
120.24
120.55
2.50
3.22
3.26
4.61
5.48
6.43
11.43
13.59
9.29
2.75
3.73
9.96
14.39
4.01
4.02
NGAIEA_N
NGAIEA_N
COAI
COAI
NGAIEA_N
NGAIEA_N
BIOWD-0
BIOWD-0
NGAIEA_N
ELCWTH2
ELCPVH2
ELCWTH2
ELCPVH2
1.04
1.10
1.39
1.39
1.10
1.15
2.69
2.69
1.32
1.65
1.65
0.50
0.33
INP(ENT)p
(PJ/PJ)
ELEC
ELEC
ELEC
ELEC
ELEC
ELEC
ELEC
ELEC
ELEC
ELEC
ELEC
ELEC
ELEC
0.42
0.45
0.47
0.51
0.39 DSLTH2
0.42 DSLTH2
0.55 DSLTH2
0.63 DSLTH2
1.99 DSLTH2
0.07
1.65
1.16
1.34
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
67
-------
Table 106. Emissions Associated with Hydrogen Production Technologies.
Emissions (kt/PJ)
i cuiinuiuu y
C0la C02b N0la
H2CSMR 15.79 0.0158 0.0056
H2CSMRCCS 1.67 0.0017 0.0056
H2CCG 34.95 0.0350 0.1329
H2CCGCCS 3.50 0.0035 0.1329
H2MSMR 16.71 0.0167 0.0056
H2MSMRCCS 1.74 0.0017 0.0056
H2MBIO 0.1329
H2MBIOCCS -58.64 -0.0586 0.1329
H2DSMR 20.04 0.0200 0.0056
a From the industrial sector.
b Mt/PJ as carbon rather than CO2.
c As sulfur rather that SO2.
sions of these technologies with CCS are assumed to be
the same as the corresponding technologies without CCS,
except sulfur emissions are 50% lower in those technolo-
gies with CCS.
12.3 Additional Model Configuration
Additional modeling techniques and constraints are applied
within the H2 module of the EPANMD MARKAL tech-
nology database.
12.3.1 Endogenous Technological Learning (ETL)
Technological learning refers to the phenomenon by which
the performance, productivity, and cost of a technology
improves as the technology is applied and knowledge and
experience accumulate. In energy system models with ETL,
learning is generally represented by a "learning curve" or
"experience curve", where the unit cost of production de-
clines at a constant rate as experience with the technology
grows. A common form for a learning curve is
Tr I,
PM10 VOC
S0la S02C
0.0002 0.0001
0.0002 0.0001
0.0010 0.1424 0.0351 0.0351
0.0010 0.1424 0.0070 0.0070
0.0002 0.0001
0.0002 0.0001
0.0010 0.1424 0.0351 0.0351
0.0010 0.1424 0.0070 0.0070
0.0002 0.0001
Table 107. ETL Parameters.
X
0 ^
0- CL
Technology
H2CSMR
H2CSMRCCS
H2CCG
H2CCGCCS
H2MSMR
H2MSMRCCS
H2MBIO
H2MBIOCCS
H2MELE
H2DSMR
H2DELE
H2DWT
H2DPV
H2DWTELC
H2DPVELC
o
o
_J
LJJ
9.5
9.5
0.4
0.4
0.05
0.05
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.05
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
O
O
LJJ
10,000.00
10,000.00
10,000.00
10,000.00
10,000.00
10,000.00
10,000.00
10,000.00
10,000.00
10,000.00
10,000.00
10,000.00
10,000.00
10,000.00
10,000.00
ri O
5 g
"Z. ~Z.
_J _J
1- 1-
LU LJJ
1 34.0807
1 36.3731
1 45.8629
1 46.1309
1 67.3284
1 74.1488
1 155.0333
1 157.575
1 123.0731
1 82.6329
1 111 .9987
1 89.6067
1 86.3251
1 120.2375
1 120.5506
O
LU
i
_j
LJJ
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
O
CC
O
O
CC
Q_
_J
111
0.9
0.92
0.9
0.92
0.9
0.92
0.9
0.92
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
Where Y is the estimated average direct unit cost for the
first x units; a is the direct unit cost needed to make the
first unit; and b (b>Q) is a parametric constant.
An 80 percent "progress ratio", corresponding to a value
of 0.32 for b, is a typical value that has been used in many
applications. This implies that the cost of technology will
be reduced to 80 percent of its original value for each cu-
mulative capacity doubling. We use a relatively conserva-
tive progress ratio of 90 percent for all H2 production tech-
nologies, and 92 percent for H2 technologies with CCS.
The maturity of each type of H2 production technology is
characterized by its current cumulative capacity, which is
obtained from Suresh, et al., 2001. ETL parameters are
listed in Table 107.
12.3.2 Lumpy Investment
H2 production technologies, especially SMR, exhibit sub-
stantial economies-of-scale. For example, the unit cost of
H2 production at a central plant is much less than that of
distributed production. On the other hand, a large capital
investment is required to build the central plant and the
supporting infrastructure to deliver fuel to refueling sta-
tions. MARKAL, in its standard configuration, is a linear
programming (LP) model, and thus represents the capaci-
ties of various technologies as continuous values. Conse-
quently, the model may produce a result in which only a
68
-------
fraction of a central plant and the supporting infrastructure
are built, producing an unrealistic solution. To provide more
realistic investments, a mixed-integer programming-based
"lumpy investment" option is used. Each time a new lump
of investment is made for a central plant or a midsize plant,
the cost would include the necessary infrastructure (e.g.,
pipeline, tanker, trucks, driver hours, cryo-liquefaction,
storage, and refueling stations), as described by the NRC
report (2004). The sizes of investments in new capacity
are assumed to be 394* 106 kg of H2 per year (52.6 PJ/yr)
for a central plant and 7.9* 106 kg per year (1.05 PJ/yr) for
a midsize plant.
12.3.3 Constraints Added to Address H2 Transition
Issues
Due to the substantial transportation and distribution in-
frastructure barriers faced by central and midsize plants,
some experts predict that distributed generation at refuel-
ing stations will likely be used to meet initial demands
before a full-scale H2 infrastructure is established. These
stations could serve remote, less populated areas where
weak economies-of-scale are justified by high H2 delivery
costs and low demand. Thus, constraints are added to the
model to require that for the first year at least 20% and 5%
of yearly H2 demand must be provided by distributed and
midsize plants, respectively. The minimum share con-
straints are relaxed gradually and approach zero by 2030.
13 Model Quality Control Processes
To ensure an accurate representation the EPANMD, the
database has been constructed and evaluated in the fol-
lowing ways:
1 Data were chosen using the established quality guide-
lines outlined in the Quality Assurance Project Plan
developed for this project. See Appendix A: Data
Source Characterizations.
2 Data are fully documented and have been run through
quality control checks to ensure accurate transmission
of raw data into the MARKAL database.
3 Database was subject to a sector-by-sector peer review
and a full model peer review.
4 Abase EPANMD MARKAL run was assessed against
the results of the AEO 2002. The run was set up using
the same assumptions as those used in the AEO.
13.1 Data Quality
Wherever possible, data were taken from NEMS input data
underlying the AEO 2002 (EIA, 2002d). AEO data were
selected for the Reference Energy System because it is a
nationally recognized source of technology data, widely
used where reference or default data are required. In some
cases, AEO data were not available in a form that could be
utilized for the EPANMD. Table 108, below, lists the data
sources used for each sector, as well as the number of tech-
nologies/resources in each sector.
For cases where metadata exist that describe precision,
accuracy, completeness, or other uncertainty measures with
respect to the data, the data collector can use this informa-
tion to assess data quality. In cases where no QA descrip-
tions are available, the data collector must accept the data
on an as-is basis. The primary sources of the information
are ultimately responsible for the quality of their data.
However, it is recognized that each source organization
may have different levels of resources available to accom-
plish their mission or may have differing commitments to
quality assurance within their organization, and conse-
quently data quality may vary from place to place in ways
that we cannot quantify.
As the majority of the EPANMD Base Case data come
from EIA, the quality level of the data drawn from them is
of particular interest. EIA has performance standards to
ensure the quality (i.e., objectivity, utility, and integrity)
of information it disseminates to the public. Quality is en-
sured and maximized at levels appropriate to the nature
and timeliness of the disseminated information. EIA also
strives for transparency about information and methods in
Table 108. Primary Data Sources Used in Developing the Database.
Sector Data Source Data Quality3 Number of Technologies/Resources
Transportation
Commercial
Residential
Industrial
Electricity
Resource Supply
OTT Quality Metrics
DeCicco etal., 2001
NEMS
NEMS
SAGE
NEMS
EPRI TAG
NEMS
A
B
A
A
A
A
C
A
15 personal vehicles in 5 size classes; 40 other passenger and freight
technologies
300
135
-100
45
25 coal types, 10 imported
oil and natural gas
petroleum products, domestic and imported
a Data quality definitions can be found in Appendix A.
69
-------
order to improve understanding and to facilitate reproduc-
ibility of the information. For a complete description of
EIA's Quality Guidelines see EIA, 2002h.
For the transportation base case sector the data are drawn
from the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Transpor-
tation Technologies Quality Metrics assessment. QM de-
scribes the analytical process used in estimating future
energy, environmental, and economic benefits of U.S. DOE
Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy programs. QM
seeks to monitor and measure the impacts of all DOE EE/
RE programs and to summarize their overall national ef-
fects. QM has been an active annual DOE EE/RE-wide
analysis and review procedure since 1995 (DOE, 2003).
Data for the electricity sector were drawn from NEMS with
supplemental data pulled from the Electric Power Research
Institute Technical Assessment Guide (EPRI, 1993). EPRI
is a non-profit energy research consortium providing sci-
entific research, technology development, and product
implementation for the energy industry. The TAG is a stan-
dard reference work for the energy industry that character-
izes key electric generation technologies and their opera-
tion, costs, environmental impacts, etc.
The industrial sector representation was adapted from the
characterization used in EIA's SAGE model (EIA, 2003b).
13.2 Data Documentation
A primary concern of ISA-W is that the data are fully docu-
mented, are translated properly into the database with re-
quired units properly calculated, and are an accurate rep-
resentation of the information provided in the reference
source. ISA-W is committed to using conversion method-
ologies that are consistent with generally accepted profes-
sional standards. In all work to transform original data into
the units and form needed for the MARKAL model, the
conversion factors used are available in the supporting
documentation.
The database manager followed a standard procedure to
validate the data in each workbook. The procedure is:
1 Build MARKAL bulk upload sheets. Bulk upload is a
feature of the MARKAL that enables data to be di-
rectly taken from Excel spreadsheets into the model
database.
2 Put workbook spreadsheets in standardized format with
the raw data spreadsheet at the end and the bulk up-
load sheets at the front. In between, the spreadsheets
are ordered so that the flow from raw data form to the
MARKAL form can be easily followed.
3 Clean up individual spreadsheets to make them easy
to understand, including naming cells used in calcula-
tions and re-ordering the placement of cells.
4 Check all links used in the spreadsheets.
5 Check all calculations.
Completed workbooks were given to an ISA-W team mem-
ber for review before distribution. During that review, ran-
dom checks of 5% of the data were done to check for er-
rors. Additionally, during the peer review process, review-
ers were asked to confirm that the original data were accu-
rately carried through the conversions to the final
MARKAL format.
Upon completion the bulk upload of each workbook into
the database, a random check of 10% of the data param-
eters, comparing the EPANMD with the Excel documents
was done by an ISA-W team member to ensure that the
bulk upload was performed correctly.
13.3 Peer Review
Each sector's data and documentation were then sent to
several experts in that sector for review. Peer review ques-
tions included:
• Has an appropriate data source for the sector been used?
• Has that data been used appropriately?
• Do the relative costs and performance of the technolo-
gies/resources look reasonable?
• Are there technologies that should be included that
have not, or that have been included that should not?
Table 109 lists the peer reviewers by sector.
In general, peer review responses indicated that the data
sources and ISA-W use of the data were appropriate. Sev-
eral minor errors and omissions were identified and cor-
rected. The reviewers also made several suggestions for
future technologies that could be examined through sce-
nario analysis in sectors beyond transportation.
Additionally, a full-model peer review was performed by
two seasoned MARKAL users:
• Paul Friley of the Energy, Environmental, and Eco-
nomic Analysis Group of Brookhaven National Labo-
ratory
• Lessly Goudarzi, President, OnLocation/Energy Sys-
tems Consulting
Peer review comments and responses are summarized in
Appendix C.
70
-------
Table 109. Sector Peer Reviewers.
Sector
Invited
Accepted Responded
Individuals
Residential
11
John Cymbalsky (EIA/DOE)
Jonathon Koomey (LBNL)
Jim Sullivan/Glenn Chinery (EPA/CPPD)
Transportation
Roger Gorham (EPA/OTAQ)
Therese Langer (ACEEE)
Steve Plotkin (ANL)
John DiCicco (EOF)
Don Hanson (ANL)/Marc Melaina (U. Mich)
Resource Supply
13
Floyd Boilanger(DOE/NETL)
Casey Delhotal (EPA/CPPD)
Russell Jones (API)
John Conti/Kaydes (EIA/DOE)
Electricity
16
Floyd Boilanger(DOE/NETL)
Dallas Burtraw (RFF)
Russell Noble (Southern Companies)
Commercial
11
Jim Sullivan (EPA/CPPD)
Harvey Sachs (ACEEE)
Erin Boedecker (EIA/DOE)
Jonathon Koomey (LBNL)
14 Calibration
Following the incorporation of peer review comments and
any necessary changes into the Reference Energy System
database, the model was run for comparison and calibra-
tion to AEO 2002 results. AEO 2002 was selected as a
calibration benchmark for two reasons. First, the Annual
Energy Outlook is a nationally recognized short- to mid-
term energy technology and consumption forecast which
is widely used where a reference forecast is required. Sec-
ond, much of our Reference Energy System data were de-
rived from AEO 2002 input data.
The goals of the calibration were
• to ensure that the model was producing reasonable re-
sults, given its input assumptions,
• to determine whether the model was providing a plau-
sible, consistent representation of the key features of
the U.S. energy system,
• in cases where our results differed from AEO results,
to be able to identify why the differences exist, and
• to identify any significant errors in the construction or
characterization of the Reference Energy System.
The results from the EPANMD for total energy consump-
tion, consumption by sector, and within sector by use were
compared to the AEO 2002, Table A1, Table A2, and Tables
A4-A9, respectively. Broad trends (upward, downward,
or changing over the time horizon) were also compared to
see if the EPANMD results tracked with the AEO trends.
Finally, the degree of quantitative match between the
EPANMD results and AEO 2002 were compared.
The model used to produce AEO 2002, the National En-
ergy Modeling System (NEMS), differs in many respects
from MARKAL. In general, sectors are modeled in more
detail, more aspects of consumer and producer behavior
are simulated, and NEMS is generally more conservative
about switching fuels and technology types than is
MARKAL. Therefore, unconstrained MARKAL results are
not expected to match AEO results exactly.
In some cases, constraints were added to force MARKAL
to track AEO more closely. The decision to use constraints
to force MARKAL to track AEO involves trade-offs be-
tween desired model characteristics. On the one hand, it is
desirable that the EPANMD's behavior is realistic in that it
represents real constraints and inflexibilities in the energy
system. On the other hand, AEO results are a simulation of
NEMS modelers' judgment about the most likely direc-
tion of the energy system, whereas the EPANMD is being
used to explore a variety of scenarios for the system's fu-
ture evolution. Therefore the EPANMD should not be
forced to track AEO so closely that it lacks the flexibility
to respond with different outcomes to differing input as-
sumptions.
Constraints have been added where there is an underlying
feature of the energy system that an unconstrained
MARKAL run does not represent. These constraints are
highlighted within the model to make them easily adjust-
able by the user.
Examples of these constraints include
• Commercial and residential heating technology fuel
splits were implemented equivalent to AEO 2002 shares
with a 3% relaxation rate,
• Growth constraint placed on wind electricity genera-
tion based on AEO 2002 growth rate, and
71
-------
• Added Transportation LDV class splits.
The next step in the calibration process was to compare
fuel prices in each sector and add price mark-ups where
needed. Fuel markups reflect any additional taxes or costs
associated with fuels that are not captured by the MARKAL
model.
The markups are currently in the EPANMD are
Markup
DSH to Commercial, Electric, Industrial, and
Transportation Sectors
DSL to Commercial, Industrial, and Residential Sectors
DSL to Electric Sector
DSL to Transportation Sector
GSL to Transportation Sector
LPG to Industrial, Residential, and Transportation
Sectors
Amount
M 1995$/PJ
Total Energy Use
1 30000
125000
120000
1 1 0000 -
105000
1 00000
^*
f^ -
j/\S^
S's'
y^f
^*r^
w^
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
—•—AEO
—•—EPANMD
Electric Sector Total Energy Use
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Commercial Sector Total Energy Use
12000
11000 -
8000
7000
6000
->»
J*^ "
^*^^J*^^
^*^_«^_
^ jm^
w^^
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
—•—AEO
—•—EPANMD
Industrial Sector Total Energy Use
35000 -
33000
31000 -
29000 -
27000
25000
^^"
j*^\^*
s/*Ls^*^
^^*_/^
^
IT
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
—•—AEO
—•—EPANMD
Residential Sector Total Energy Use
14000 -
13500
12500
12000 -
11500 -
11000 -
10500 -
10000
^»
j^^~
^"
,Ł•
_^^
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
—•—AEO
—•—EPANMD
Figure 39. Comparison of EPANMD to AEO2002: Sector Specific Energy Use in PJ.
72
-------
As illustrated in Figure 39, total energy consumption in
the EPANMD is within 20% of AEO2002 values. The larg-
est deviation from the AEO occurs with gasoline (GSL)
consumption. Looking at sector specific use, the differ-
ence occurs in the transportation sector.
Figures 40 and 41 show the comparison between the
AEO2002 and the EPANMD in system-wide consumption
of fuels.
The 2002 AEO transportation results are very pessimistic
and only allow a small penetration of non-conventional
technologies. As the transportation sector is one of the sec-
tors that is the focus of this research, it is desirable to not
restrict the EPANMD model to the level that the AEO is
restricted, which caused the deviation of EPANMD from
the AEO 2002 in the transportation sector. So as one last
calibration step, the EPANMD was run with a new sce-
nario in which the constraints on the transportation vehicles
were limited to the technology penetration levels in the
AEO 2002. This brought the EPANMD gasoline consump-
tion numbers to within 10% of the AEO numbers. With
this result, the EPA MARKALmodel is deemed to be "cali-
brated".
Total Coal Use - System Wide
32000 -
28000 -
y*^^_ ^-^"
/ .
+^"^
~^*
^
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
• AEO
—•—EPANMD
Total NGA Use: System Wide
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Total GSL Use System Wide
23000 -
19000 -
15000 -
^»
^^
.s*
r^Ł- — "^
~"\
^B
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
• AEO
—•—EPANMD
Total DSL Use System Wide
15000 -
11000
9000 -
X
7
S
^^^ ^_ »
""*" \+^*^
+^~
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
— *— AEO
-•—EPANMD
Figure 40. Comparison of EPANMD to AEO2002: System-Wide Coal, Natural Gas, Gasoline, and Diesel Use in PJ.
73
-------
Total DSH Use System Wide
2500
2000 -
1500
500
0
•=____ *
V /
«, X---''
V r
^ — • — -» — •
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
—•—AEO
—•—EPANMD
Total Renewables Use System Wide
9000
8500
7500 -
7000 -
6500 -
6000
5500 -
5000
^^^*
^^**^
^^*' F — •
>*^ /
/ /
*" /
^d
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
—•—AEO
— •— EPANMD
Total LPG Use System Wide
3800 -
3400 -
3000 -
2800 -
2600 -
2400 -
2200 -
T-
mf^^^
^
^to^*^**^
*~~ ^^
S'
^^
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
—•—AEO
—•—EPANMD
Total Nuclear Use System Wide
8500
8300 -
7900
7700 -
_^
: x
. . ;N . .
NV-—-*
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
—•—AEO
—•—EPANMD
Figure 41. Comparison of EPANMD to AEO2002: System-Wide Fuel Oil, Renewables, Liquid Petroleum Gas, and
Nuclear Use in PJ.
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EIA, 2002g. International Energy Outlook 2002, DOE/EIA-
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77
-------
78
-------
Appendix A
Data Source Characterization
79
-------
Sources that may be used when gathering secondary data
fall under seven general classifications.
a) Federal Organizations and Labora-
tories
A variety of Federal organizations collect data that may be
applicable to the assessments that will be performed under
this project. The two primary organizations are the Energy
Information Administration (EIA) for energy and technol-
ogy data to be used in MARKAL and the Environmental
Protection Agency for emissions data. EIA was established
in 1977 as an independent authority from DOE for data
collection and from the rest of the Federal government with
respect to the context of the EIA reports. EIA is mandated
to collect, assemble, evaluate, and analyze energy infor-
mation and to provide energy information and projections
to the Federal and state governments and the public. EIA
authority was expanded in the Energy Policy Act of 1992
to data collection and analysis of several additional areas
including energy consumption, alternative fuels and alter-
natively fueled vehicles, and electricity production from
renewable energy sources.
Federal labs that have data appropriate to the transporta-
tion and energy sectors include National Renewable En-
ergy Laboratory (NREL), Lawrence Berkley Laboratories
(LBL), Oak Ridge National Laboratories (ORNL), the
Transportation Research Board (National Academy of Sci-
ences), and others.
b) State Agencies
State agencies collect data that may be applicable to the
assessments like Federal organizations do. Examples in-
clude Southern California Air Quality Management Dis-
trict, various energy and state transportation departments,
and NESCAUM (Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use
Management).
c) Academic Studies
Academic institutions collect data that may be applicable
to the assessments. An example is the University of Cali-
fornia -Davis, Transportation Studies Department.
d) Research Studies from Non-Gov-
ernmental Organizations
Example organizations include The Pew Center, Tyndall
Center, Cato Institute, and the Stockholm Environmental
Institute.
e) Journal Articles and Conference
Proceedings
Journal articles that are peer-reviewed are more desirable
than non-peer-reviewed articles. Journals may be published
independently or in association with an industry or trade
organization. Independently published journals such as
Energy Policy and Nature are considered more desirable
than peer-reviewed journals of trade associations. Confer-
ence proceedings, such as the Annual Conference of the
Transportation Research Board and the Annual U.S. Hy-
drogen Meeting and Exposition, may be of a lower quality
since many have not been peer-reviewed.
f) Manufacturer or Trade Literature
In some cases manufacturer product literature may be the
primary source for technology performance and cost in-
formation. Other trade literature may provide statistical
information on new products. Literature from trade societ-
ies or industry associations provides another format for
gathering technology information. Examples of such groups
include the Society of Automotive Engineers and the Elec-
tric Vehicle Association of America.
g) Individual Estimates
There may be some instances where there are insufficient
data from the above sources to fully specify a future tech-
nology as required in MARKAL. Thus a value must be
estimated. When this occurs, documentation of the ap-
proach that clearly shows the derivation of the value will
be required.
All data sources are reviewed for any known bias towards
any technology or any obvious corporate influence in the
research. Documentation of data source will include the
study objective and the researchers involved. For the pur-
poses of this project, data quality of the sources listed in
Section 3.1 are ranked as follows:
Rank Quality
Source
A Highest Federal and state agencies and laboratories
DO j Independent journal articles, academic studies, and
manufacturer product literature
NOn-governmental organizations , trade journal
articles, and conference proceedings: peer reviewed
Conference proceedings and other trade literature:
not peer reviewed
E Lowest Individual estimates
C Third
D Fourth
80
-------
Appendix B
Detailed Sector Data
81
-------
COAL RESOURCE SUPPLY
MARKAL
MINCABHS1
MINCABHS2
MINCABHS3
MINCABHS4
MINCABHS5
MINCABHS6
MINCABHS7
MINCABHS8
MINCABHU1
MINCABHU2
MINCABHU3
MINCABHU4
MINCABHU5
MINCABHU6
oo
to MINCABHU7
MINCABHU8
MINCABLS1
MINCABLS2
MINCABLS3
MINCABLS4
MINCABLS5
MINCABLS6
MINCABLS7
MINCABLS8
MINCABLU1
MINCABLU2
MINCABLU3
MINCABLU4
MINCABLU5
MINCABLU6
MINCABLU7
MINCABLU8
MINCABMS1
MINCABMS2
MINCABMS3
Technology
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Name
Bit., High Sulfur, Surface, Stp 1
Bit., High Sulfur, Surface, Stp 2
Bit., High Sulfur, Surface, Stp 3
Bit., High Sulfur, Surface, Stp 4
Bit., High Sulfur, Surface, Stp 5
Bit., High Sulfur, Surface, Stp 6
Bit., High Sulfur, Surface, Stp 7
Bit., High Sulfur, Surface, Stp 8
Bit., High Sulfur, Undergrd, Stp 1
Bit., High Sulfur, Undergrd, Stp 2
Bit., High Sulfur, Undergrd, Stp 3
Bit., High Sulfur, Undergrd, Stp 4
Bit., High Sulfur, Undergrd, Stp 5
Bit., High Sulfur, Undergrd, Stp 6
Bit., High Sulfur, Undergrd, Stp 7
Bit., High Sulfur, Undergrd, Stp 8
Bitum., Low Sulfur, Surface, Stp 1
Bitum., Low Sulfur, Surface, Stp 2
Bitum., Low Sulfur, Surface, Stp 3
Bitum., Low Sulfur, Surface, Stp 4
Bitum., Low Sulfur, Surface, Stp 5
Bitum., Low Sulfur, Surface, Stp 6
Bitum., Low Sulfur, Surface, Stp 7
Bitum., Low Sulfur, Surface, Stp 8
Bitum., Low Sulfur, Undergrd, Stp 1
Bitum., Low Sulfur, Undergrd, Stp 2
Bitum., Low Sulfur, Undergrd, Stp 3
Bitum., Low Sulfur, Undergrd, Stp 4
Bitum., Low Sulfur, Undergrd, Stp 5
Bitum., Low Sulfur, Undergrd, Stp 6
Bitum., Low Sulfur, Undergrd, Stp 7
Bitum., Low Sulfur, Undergrd, Stp 8
Bitum., Med Sulfur, Surface, Stp 1
Bitum., Med Sulfur, Surface, Stp 2
Bitum., Med Sulfur, Surface, Stp 3
START
year
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
CUM
PJ
53774
4388
4586
3825
1957
4035
5222
5450
279273
28070
29956
25383
13152
27337
36065
38237
64693
5491
5759
19974
2462
5082
6605
6891
111482
14246
15479
13316
6966
14623
19569
21049
97229
6951
7241
1995
0.806
0.827
0.849
0.867
0.875
0.893
0.915
0.936
0.801
0.823
0.844
0.862
0.870
0.888
0.909
0.931
0.909
0.936
0.960
0.980
0.991
1.010
1.035
1.060
0.872
0.894
0.918
0.936
0.946
0.965
0.989
1.012
0.807
0.828
0.850
2000
0.806
0.827
0.849
0.867
0.875
0.893
0.915
0.936
0.801
0.823
0.844
0.862
0.870
0.888
0.909
0.931
0.909
0.936
0.960
0.980
0.991
1.010
1.035
1.060
0.872
0.894
0.918
0.936
0.946
0.965
0.989
1.012
0.807
0.828
0.850
2005
0.749
0.769
0.790
0.806
0.814
0.830
0.850
0.871
0.747
0.767
0.787
0.803
0.811
0.827
0.847
0.867
0.845
0.869
0.892
0.847
0.920
0.939
0.961
0.984
0.841
0.873
0.898
0.917
0.927
0.946
0.970
0.994
0.774
0.795
0.816
COST
95USmillion$/PJ
2010 2015 2020
0.743
0.763
0.783
0.799
0.807
0.823
0.843
0.863
0.742
0.763
0.783
0.799
0.807
0.823
0.843
0.863
0.811
0.833
0.855
0.873
0.882
0.899
0.922
0.943
0.845
0.881
0.906
0.926
0.936
0.955
0.980
1.005
0.768
0.789
0.810
0.736
0.756
0.776
0.792
0.800
0.816
0.835
0.855
0.736
0.756
0.776
0.792
0.800
0.816
0.835
0.855
0.802
0.824
0.846
0.864
0.872
0.890
0.911
0.933
0.831
0.867
0.891
0.911
0.921
0.940
0.964
0.988
0.758
0.779
0.800
0.728
0.748
0.768
0.783
0.791
0.807
0.827
0.846
0.728
0.748
0.768
0.783
0.791
0.807
0.827
0.846
0.783
0.806
0.827
0.844
0.851
0.870
0.890
0.912
0.806
0.839
0.862
0.881
0.891
0.909
0.933
0.956
0.747
0.768
0.788
2025
0.728
0.748
0.768
0.783
0.791
0.807
0.827
0.846
0.728
0.748
0.768
0.783
0.791
0.807
0.827
0.846
0.783
0.806
0.827
0.844
0.851
0.870
0.890
0.912
0.806
0.839
0.862
0.881
0.891
0.909
0.933
0.956
0.747
0.768
0.788
2030
0.728
0.748
0.768
0.783
0.791
0.807
0.827
0.846
0.728
0.748
0.768
0.783
0.791
0.807
0.827
0.846
0.783
0.806
0.827
0.844
0.851
0.870
0.890
0.912
0.806
0.839
0.862
0.881
0.891
0.909
0.933
0.956
0.747
0.768
0.788
2035
0.728
0.748
0.768
0.783
0.791
0.807
0.827
0.846
0.728
0.748
0.768
0.783
0.791
0.807
0.827
0.846
0.783
0.806
0.827
0.844
0.851
0.870
0.890
0.912
0.806
0.839
0.862
0.881
0.891
0.909
0.933
0.956
0.747
0.768
0.788
continued
-------
MARKAL
MINCABMS4
MINCABMS5
MINCABMS6
MINCABMS7
MINCABMS8
MINCABMU1
MINCABMU2
MINCABMU3
MINCABMU4
MINCABMU5
MINCABMU6
MINCABMU7
MINCABMU8
MINCAGHS1
MINCAGHS2
MINCAGHS3
MINCAGHS4
MINCAGHS5
oo MINCAGHS6
oo
MINCAGHS7
MINCAGHS8
MINCALMS1
MINCALMS2
MINCALMS3
MINCALMS4
MINCALMS5
MINCALMS6
MINCALMS7
MINCALMS8
MINCAMLU1
MINCAMLU2
MINCAMLU3
MINCAMLU4
MINCAMLU5
MINCAMLU6
MINCAMLU7
MINCAMLU8
MINCAMMU1
MINCAMMU2
Technology Name
Coal -App., Bitum., Med Sulfur, Surface, Stp 4
Coal -App., Bitum., Med Sulfur, Surface, Stp 5
Coal -App., Bitum., Med Sulfur, Surface, Stp 6
Coal -App., Bitum., Med Sulfur, Surface, Stp 7
Coal -App., Bitum., Med Sulfur, Surface, Stp 8
Coal -App., Bitum., Med Sulfur, Undergrd, Stp 1
Coal -App., Bitum., Med Sulfur, Undergrd, Stp 2
Coal -App., Bitum., Med Sulfur, Undergrd, Stp 3
Coal -App., Bitum., Med Sulfur, Undergrd, Stp 4
Coal -App., Bitum., Med Sulfur, Undergrd, Stp 5
Coal -App., Bitum., Med Sulfur, Undergrd, Stp 6
Coal -App., Bitum., Med Sulfur, Undergrd, Stp 7
Coal -App., Bitum., Med Sulfur, Undergrd, Stp 8
Coal -App., Gob, High Sulfur, Stp 1
Coal -App., Gob, High Sulfur, Stp 2
Coal -App., Gob, High Sulfur, Stp 3
Coal -App., Gob, High Sulfur, Stp 4
Coal -App., Gob, High Sulfur, Stp 5
Coal -App., Gob, High Sulfur, Stp 6
Coal -App., Gob, High Sulfur, Stp 7
Coal -App., Gob, High Sulfur, Stp 8
Coal -App., Lignite, Med. Sulfur, Surface, Stp 1
Coal -App., Lignite, Med. Sulfur, Surface, Stp 2
Coal -App., Lignite, Med. Sulfur, Surface, Stp 3
Coal -App., Lignite, Med. Sulfur, Surface, Stp 4
Coal -App., Lignite, Med. Sulfur, Surface, Stp 5
Coal -App., Lignite, Med. Sulfur, Surface, Stp 6
Coal -App., Lignite, Med. Sulfur, Surface, Stp 7
Coal -App., Lignite, Med. Sulfur, Surface, Stp 8
Coal -App., Met., Low Sul., Undergrd, Stp 1
Coal -App., Met., Low Sul., Undergrd, Stp 2
Coal -App., Met., Low Sul., Undergrd, Stp 3
Coal -App., Met., Low Sul., Undergrd, Stp 4
Coal -App., Met., Low Sul., Undergrd, Stp 5
Coal -App., Met., Low Sul., Undergrd, Stp 6
Coal -App., Met., Low Sul., Undergrd, Stp 7
Coal -App., Met., Low Sul., Undergrd, Stp 8
Coal -App., Met., Med Sul., Undergrd, Stp 1
Coal -App., Met., Med Sul., Undergrd, Stp 2
START
year
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
CUM
PJ
6007
3069
6292
8136
8440
199260
19904
21249
18002
9321
19382
25570
27117
14545
952
988
817
419
852
1100
1137
2622
116
118
98
49
98
128
128
1372
153
165
140
73
152
201
215
1978
256
1995
0.868
0.876
0.894
0.915
0.937
0.782
0.804
0.825
0.842
0.851
0.868
0.889
0.868
0.841
0.864
0.887
0.905
0.914
0.932
0.955
0.978
0.677
0.706
0.725
0.739
0.747
0.762
0.780
0.799
1.299
1.334
1.369
1.397
1.411
1.439
1.474
1.509
0.881
0.916
2000
0.868
0.876
0.894
0.915
0.937
0.782
0.804
0.825
0.842
0.851
0.868
0.889
0.868
0.841
0.864
0.887
0.905
0.914
0.932
0.955
0.978
0.677
0.706
0.725
0.739
0.747
0.762
0.780
0.799
1.299
1.334
1.369
1.397
1.411
1.439
1.474
1.509
0.881
0.916
2005
0.833
0.841
0.858
0.879
0.900
0.755
0.776
0.797
0.813
0.821
0.838
0.858
0.878
0.895
0.919
0.943
0.962
0.972
0.991
1.016
1.040
0.716
0.736
0.755
0.771
0.778
0.794
0.813
0.832
1.253
1.287
1.321
1.348
1.361
1.388
1.422
1.456
0.839
0.874
COST
95USmillion$/PJ
2010 2015 2020
0.827
0.835
0.851
0.872
0.893
0.737
0.758
0.778
0.474
0.802
0.818
0.838
0.857
0.890
0.914
0.938
0.958
0.967
0.987
1.011
1.035
0.740
0.760
0.780
0.796
0.804
0.820
0.840
0.860
1.243
1.277
1.310
1.337
1.350
1.377
1.411
1.445
0.825
0.859
0.816
0.824
0.841
0.861
0.882
0.723
0.743
0.763
0.779
0.787
0.802
0.822
0.841
0.904
0.928
0.953
0.972
0.982
1.002
1.026
1.051
0.760
0.781
0.801
0.818
0.826
0.842
0.863
0.883
1.187
1.219
1.251
1.277
1.290
1.315
1.347
1.379
0.816
0.849
0.804
0.813
0.829
0.849
0.869
0.705
0.724
0.743
0.758
0.765
0.781
0.800
0.819
0.914
0.939
0.964
0.984
0.993
1.013
1.038
1.063
0.774
0.795
0.816
0.832
0.841
0.858
0.878
0.899
1.160
1.192
1.223
1.248
1.260
1.286
1.317
1.348
0.809
0.840
2025
0.804
0.813
0.829
0.849
0.869
0.705
0.724
0.743
0.758
0.765
0.781
0.800
0.819
0.914
0.939
0.964
0.984
0.993
1.013
1.038
1.063
0.774
0.795
0.816
0.832
0.841
0.858
0.878
0.899
1.160
1.192
1.223
1.248
1.260
1.286
1.317
1.348
0.809
0.840
2030
0.804
0.813
0.829
0.849
0.869
0.705
0.724
0.743
0.758
0.765
0.781
0.800
0.819
0.914
0.939
0.964
0.984
0.993
1.013
1.038
1.063
0.774
0.795
0.816
0.832
0.841
0.858
0.878
0.899
1.160
1.192
1.223
1.248
1.260
1.286
1.317
1.348
0.809
0.840
2035
0.804
0.813
0.829
0.849
0.869
0.705
0.724
0.743
0.758
0.765
0.781
0.800
0.819
0.914
0.939
0.964
0.984
0.993
1.013
1.038
1.063
0.774
0.795
0.816
0.832
0.841
0.858
0.878
0.899
1.160
1.192
1.223
1.248
1.260
1.286
1.317
1.348
0.809
0.840
continued
-------
MARKAL
MINCAMMU3
MINCAMMU4
MINCAMMU5
MINCAMMU6
MINCAMMU7
MINCAMMU8
MINCDLMS1
MINCDLMS2
MINCDLMS3
MINCDLMS4
MINCDLMS5
MINCDLMS6
MINCDLMS7
MINCDLMS8
MINCGLHS1
MINCGLHS2
MINCGLHS3
MINCGLHS4
MINCGLHS5
MINCGLHS6
MINCGLHS7
MINCGLHS8
MINCGLMS1
MINCGLMS2
MINCGLMS3
MINCGLMS4
MINCGLMS5
MINCGLMS6
MINCGLMS7
MINCGLMS8
MINCIBHS1
MINCIBHS2
MINCIBHS3
MINCIBHS4
MINCIBHS5
MINCIBHS6
MINCIBHS7
MINCIBHS8
MINCIBHU1
Technology Name
Coal -App., Met., Med Sul., Undergrd, Stp 3
Coal -App., Met., Med Sul., Undergrd, Stp 4
Coal -App., Met., Med Sul., Undergrd, Stp 5
Coal -App., Met., Med Sul., Undergrd, Stp 6
Coal -App., Met., Med Sul., Undergrd, Stp 7
Coal -App., Met., Med Sul., Undergrd, Stp 8
Coal -Dakota, Lignite, Med. Sulf., Surface, Stp 1
Coal -Dakota, Lignite, Med. Sulf., Surface, Stp 2
Coal -Dakota, Lignite, Med. Sulf., Surface, Stp 3
Coal -Dakota, Lignite, Med. Sulf., Surface, Stp 4
Coal -Dakota, Lignite, Med. Sulf., Surface, Stp 5
Coal -Dakota, Lignite, Med. Sulf., Surface, Stp 6
Coal -Dakota, Lignite, Med. Sulf., Surface, Stp 7
Coal -Dakota, Lignite, Med. Sulf., Surface, Stp 8
Coal -Gulf, Lignite, High Sulfur, Surface, Stp 1
Coal -Gulf, Lignite, High Sulfur, Surface, Stp 2
Coal -Gulf, Lignite, High Sulfur, Surface, Stp 3
Coal -Gulf, Lignite, High Sulfur, Surface, Stp 4
Coal -Gulf, Lignite, High Sulfur, Surface, Stp 5
Coal -Gulf, Lignite, High Sulfur, Surface, Stp 6
Coal -Gulf, Lignite, High Sulfur, Surface, Stp 7
Coal -Gulf, Lignite, High Sulfur, Surface, Stp 8
Coal -Gulf, Lignite, Med. Sulfur, Surface, Stp 1
Coal -Gulf, Lignite, Med. Sulfur, Surface, Stp 2
Coal -Gulf, Lignite, Med. Sulfur, Surface, Stp 3
Coal -Gulf, Lignite, Med. Sulfur, Surface, Stp 4
Coal -Gulf, Lignite, Med. Sulfur, Surface, Stp 5
Coal -Gulf, Lignite, Med. Sulfur, Surface, Stp 6
Coal -Gulf, Lignite, Med. Sulfur, Surface, Stp 7
Coal -Gulf, Lignite, Med. Sulfur, Surface, Stp 8
Coal -Interior, Bit., High Sulfur, Surface, Stp 1
Coal -Interior, Bit., High Sulfur, Surface, Stp 2
Coal -Interior, Bit., High Sulfur, Surface, Stp 3
Coal -Interior, Bit., High Sulfur, Surface, Stp 4
Coal -Interior, Bit., High Sulfur, Surface, Stp 5
Coal -Interior, Bit., High Sulfur, Surface, Stp 6
Coal -Interior, Bit., High Sulfur, Surface, Stp 7
Coal -Interior, Bit., High Sulfur, Surface, Stp 8
Coal -Interior, Bit., High Sul., Undergrd, Stp 1
START
year
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
CUM
PJ
278
240
125
263
352
378
76571
5185
5390
4461
2265
4665
6016
6234
8104
635
663
552
282
581
754
784
36365
2921
3059
2546
1301
2680
3478
3622
218250
16508
17215
14313
7312
15011
19452
20249
545253
1995
0.941
0.961
0.971
0.991
1.016
1.041
0.497
0.511
0.524
0.535
0.540
0.551
0.565
0.578
0.740
0.760
0.780
0.796
0.804
0.819
0.839
0.859
0.859
0.883
0.906
0.925
0.934
0.952
0.976
0.999
0.799
0.820
0.841
0.859
0.868
0.885
0.906
0.928
0.725
2000
0.941
0.961
0.971
0.991
1.016
1.041
0.497
0.511
0.524
0.535
0.540
0.551
0.565
0.578
0.740
0.760
0.780
0.796
0.804
0.819
0.839
0.859
0.859
0.883
0.906
0.925
0.934
0.952
0.976
0.999
0.799
0.820
0.841
0.859
0.868
0.885
0.906
0.928
0.725
2005
0.898
0.917
0.927
0.946
0.970
0.994
0.469
0.481
0.494
0.504
0.509
0.519
0.532
0.545
0.709
0.729
0.748
0.763
0.771
0.786
0.805
0.824
0.836
0.859
0.881
0.900
0.909
0.927
0.949
0.972
0.787
0.808
0.829
0.846
0.854
0.871
0.893
0.914
0.712
COST
95USmillion$/PJ
2010 2015 2020
0.882
0.901
0.911
0.930
0.953
0.977
0.457
0.469
0.481
0.491
0.496
0.506
0.518
0.531
0.700
0.718
0.737
0.752
0.760
0.775
0.794
0.813
0.779
0.800
0.821
0.838
0.846
0.863
0.884
0.905
0.793
0.814
0.836
0.853
0.861
0.878
0.900
0.921
0.710
0.872
0.891
0.900
0.919
0.942
0.965
0.451
0.463
0.475
0.485
0.489
0.499
0.511
0.524
0.681
0.699
0.717
0.732
0.739
0.754
0.773
0.791
0.740
0.760
0.780
0.796
0.804
0.820
0.840
0.860
0.777
0.797
0.818
0.835
0.843
0.860
0.881
0.902
0.697
0.863
0.881
0.891
0.909
0.932
0.955
0.448
0.461
0.473
0.482
0.487
0.497
0.509
0.521
0.673
0.691
0.709
0.724
0.731
0.745
0.764
0.782
0.726
0.746
0.765
0.781
0.789
0.805
0.824
0.844
0.768
0.788
0.809
0.826
0.834
0.850
0.871
0.892
0.692
2025
0.863
0.881
0.891
0.909
0.932
0.955
0.448
0.461
0.473
0.482
0.487
0.497
0.509
0.521
0.673
0.691
0.709
0.724
0.731
0.745
0.764
0.782
0.726
0.746
0.765
0.781
0.789
0.805
0.824
0.844
0.768
0.788
0.809
0.826
0.834
0.850
0.871
0.892
0.692
2030
0.863
0.881
0.891
0.909
0.932
0.955
0.448
0.461
0.473
0.482
0.487
0.497
0.509
0.521
0.673
0.691
0.709
0.724
0.731
0.745
0.764
0.782
0.726
0.746
0.765
0.781
0.789
0.805
0.824
0.844
0.768
0.788
0.809
0.826
0.834
0.850
0.871
0.892
0.692
2035
0.863
0.881
0.891
0.909
0.932
0.955
0.448
0.461
0.473
0.482
0.487
0.497
0.509
0.521
0.673
0.691
0.709
0.724
0.731
0.745
0.764
0.782
0.726
0.746
0.765
0.781
0.789
0.805
0.824
0.844
0.768
0.788
0.809
0.826
0.834
0.850
0.871
0.892
0.692
continued
-------
oo
MARKAL
MINCIBHU2
MINCIBHU3
MINCIBHU4
MINCIBHU5
MINCIBHU6
MINCIBHU7
MINCIBHU8
MINCIBMS1
MINCIBMS2
MINCIBMS3
MINCIBMS4
MINCIBMS5
MINCIBMS6
MINCIBMS7
MINCIBMS8
MINCIBMU1
MINCIBMU2
MINCIBMU3
MINCIBMU4
MINCIBMU5
MINCIBMU6
MINCIBMU7
MINCIBMU8
MINCNSMS1
MINCNSMS2
MINCNSMS3
MINCNSMS4
MINCNSMS5
MINCNSMS6
MINCNSMS7
MINCNSMS8
MINCPBLU1
MINCPBLU2
MINCPBLU3
MINCPBLU4
MINCPBLU5
MINCPBLU6
MINCPBLU7
MINCPBLU8
Technology Name
Coal -Interior, Bit., High Sul., Undergrd, Stp 2
Coal -Interior, Bit., High Sul., Undergrd, Stp 3
Coal -Interior, Bit., High Sul., Undergrd, Stp 4
Coal -Interior, Bit., High Sul., Undergrd, Stp 5
Coal -Interior, Bit., High Sul., Undergrd, Stp 6
Coal -Interior, Bit., High Sul., Undergrd, Stp 7
Coal -Interior, Bit., High Sul., Undergrd, Stp 8
Coal -Interior, Bit., Med Sulfur, Surface, Stp 1
Coal -Interior, Bit., Med Sulfur, Surface, Stp 2
Coal -Interior, Bit., Med Sulfur, Surface, Stp 3
Coal -Interior, Bit., Med Sulfur, Surface, Stp 4
Coal -Interior, Bit., Med Sulfur, Surface, Stp 5
Coal -Interior, Bit., Med Sulfur, Surface, Stp 6
Coal -Interior, Bit., Med Sulfur, Surface, Stp 7
Coal -Interior, Bit., Med Sulfur, Surface, Stp 8
Coal -Interior, Bit., Med. Sulfur, Undergrd Stp 1
Coal -Interior, Bit., Med. Sulfur, Undergrd Stp 2
Coal -Interior, Bit., Med. Sulfur, Undergrd Stp 3
Coal -Interior, Bit., Med. Sulfur, Undergrd Stp 4
Coal -Interior, Bit., Med. Sulfur, Undergrd Stp 5
Coal -Interior, Bit., Med. Sulfur, Undergrd Stp 6
Coal -Interior, Bit., Med. Sulfur, Undergrd Stp 7
Coal -Interior, Bit., Med. Sulfur, Undergrd Stp 8
Coal -Northwest: Sub-bit, Med Sul., Surface. Stp 1
Coal -Northwest: Sub-bit, Med Sul., Surface. Stp 2
Coal -Northwest: Sub-bit, Med Sul., Surface. Stp 3
Coal -Northwest: Sub-bit, Med Sul., Surface. Stp 4
Coal -Northwest: Sub-bit, Med Sul., Surface. Stp 5
Coal -Northwest: Sub-bit, Med Sul., Surface. Stp 6
Coal -Northwest: Sub-bit, Med Sul., Surface. Stp 7
Coal -Northwest: Sub-bit, Med Sul., Surface. Stp 8
Coal -Power River, Bit., Low Sul, Undergrd, Stp 1
Coal -Power River, Bit., Low Sul, Undergrd, Stp 2
Coal -Power River, Bit., Low Sul, Undergrd, Stp 3
Coal -Power River, Bit., Low Sul, Undergrd, Stp 4
Coal -Power River, Bit., Low Sul, Undergrd, Stp 5
Coal -Power River, Bit., Low Sul, Undergrd, Stp 6
Coal -Power River, Bit., Low Sul, Undergrd, Stp 7
Coal -Power River, Bit., Low Sul, Undergrd, Stp 8
START
year
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
CUM
PJ
50352
53464
45116
23285
48319
63514
67069
57046
6068
6432
5431
2803
5794
7621
8010
39197
4201
4506
3828
1985
4140
5478
5827
56020
6191
6586
5563
2862
5938
7822
8223
23225
2649
2949
2749
1150
2299
3099
2333
1995
0.745
0.764
0.780
0.788
0.804
0.823
0.843
0.801
0.822
0.844
0.861
0.870
0.887
0.909
0.930
0.808
0.829
0.851
0.869
0.877
0.895
0.917
0.938
1.377
1.413
1.450
1.480
1.495
1.525
1.562
1.599
6.314
0.725
0.743
0.759
0.754
0.752
0.771
0.789
2000
0.745
0.764
0.780
0.788
0.804
0.823
0.843
0.801
0.822
0.844
0.861
0.870
0.887
0.909
0.930
0.808
0.829
0.851
0.869
0.877
0.895
0.917
0.938
1.377
1.413
1.450
1.480
1.495
1.525
1.562
1.599
6.314
0.725
0.743
0.759
0.754
0.752
0.771
0.789
2005
0.731
0.750
0.765
0.773
0.788
0.808
0.827
0.776
0.797
0.818
0.835
0.843
0.860
0.881
0.902
0.773
0.794
0.815
0.832
0.840
0.857
0.878
0.899
1.380
1.417
1.455
1.484
1.499
1.529
1.567
1.604
0.795
0.795
0.816
0.833
0.842
0.857
0.879
0.899
COST
95USmillion$/PJ
2010 2015 2020
0.730
0.749
0.764
0.772
0.787
0.806
0.825
0.758
0.778
0.799
0.815
0.823
0.840
0.860
0.881
0.743
0.763
0.783
0.800
0.808
0.824
0.844
0.864
1.387
1.424
1.462
1.492
1.507
1.537
1.574
1.612
0.748
0.767
0.789
0.804
0.812
0.829
0.849
0.870
0.716
0.734
0.749
0.757
0.772
0.791
0.810
0.742
0.762
0.782
0.798
0.806
0.822
0.842
0.862
0.729
0.749
0.768
0.784
0.792
0.808
0.827
0.847
1.394
1.431
1.469
1.499
1.514
1.544
1.582
1.620
0.729
0.748
0.770
0.785
0.791
0.809
0.827
0.847
0.711
0.729
0.744
0.752
0.767
0.786
0.804
0.737
0.757
0.777
0.793
0.801
0.817
0.837
0.857
0.720
0.739
0.759
0.774
0.782
0.798
0.817
0.837
1.396
1.434
1.472
1.502
1.517
1.547
1.585
1.623
0.705
0.724
0.743
0.758
0.766
0.781
0.800
0.820
2025
0.711
0.729
0.744
0.752
0.767
0.786
0.804
0.737
0.757
0.777
0.793
0.801
0.817
0.837
0.857
0.720
0.739
0.759
0.774
0.782
0.798
0.817
0.837
1.396
1.434
1.472
1.502
1.517
1.547
1.585
1.623
0.705
0.724
0.743
0.758
0.766
0.781
0.800
0.820
2030
0.711
0.729
0.744
0.752
0.767
0.786
0.804
0.737
0.757
0.777
0.793
0.801
0.817
0.837
0.857
0.720
0.739
0.759
0.774
0.782
0.798
0.817
0.837
1.396
1.434
1.472
1.502
1.517
1.547
1.585
1.623
0.705
0.724
0.743
0.758
0.766
0.781
0.800
0.820
2035
0.711
0.729
0.744
0.752
0.767
0.786
0.804
0.737
0.757
0.777
0.793
0.801
0.817
0.837
0.857
0.720
0.739
0.759
0.774
0.782
0.798
0.817
0.837
1.396
1.434
1.472
1.502
1.517
1.547
1.585
1.623
0.705
0.724
0.743
0.758
0.766
0.781
0.800
0.820
continued
-------
MARKAL
MINCPSLS1
MINCPSLS2
MINCPSLS3
MINCPSLS4
MINCPSLS5
MINCPSLS6
MINCPSLS7
MINCPSLS8
MINCPSMS1
MINCPSMS2
MINCPSMS3
MINCPSMS4
MINCPSMS5
MINCPSMS6
MINCPSMS7
MINCPSMS8
MINCRBLU1
MINCRBLU2
MINCRBLU3
MINCRBLU4
MINCRBLU5
MINCRBLU6
MINCRBLU7
MINCRBLU8
MINCRSLS1
MINCRSLS2
MINCRSLS3
MINCRSLS4
MINCRSLS5
MINCRSLS6
MINCRSLS7
MINCRSLS8
MINCSBLS1
MINCSBLS2
MINCSBLS3
MINCSBLS4
MINCSBLS5
MINCSBLS6
MINCSBLS7
Technology Name
Coal -Power R, Sub-Bit, Low Sul, Surface, Stp 1
Coal -Power R, Sub-Bit, Low Sul, Surface, Stp 2
Coal -Power R, Sub-Bit, Low Sul, Surface, Stp 3
Coal -Power R, Sub-Bit, Low Sul, Surface, Stp 4
Coal -Power R, Sub-Bit, Low Sul, Surface, Stp 5
Coal -Power R, Sub-Bit, Low Sul, Surface, Stp 6
Coal -Power R, Sub-Bit, Low Sul, Surface, Stp 7
Coal -Power R, Sub-Bit, Low Sul, Surface, Stp 8
Coal -Power R, Sub-Bit, Med Sul, Surface, Stp 1
Coal -Power R, Sub-Bit, Med Sul, Surface, Stp 2
Coal -Power R, Sub-Bit, Med Sul, Surface, Stp 3
Coal -Power R, Sub-Bit, Med Sul, Surface, Stp 4
Coal -Power R, Sub-Bit, Med Sul, Surface, Stp 5
Coal -Power R, Sub-Bit, Med Sul, Surface, Stp 6
Coal -Power R, Sub-Bit, Med Sul, Surface, Stp 7
Coal -Power R, Sub-Bit, Med Sul, Surface, Stp 8
Coal -Rocky Mtns, Bit., Low Sul., Undergrd, Stp 1
Coal -Rocky Mtns, Bit., Low Sul., Undergrd, Stp 2
Coal -Rocky Mtns, Bit., Low Sul., Undergrd, Stp 3
Coal -Rocky Mtns, Bit., Low Sul., Undergrd, Stp 4
Coal -Rocky Mtns, Bit., Low Sul., Undergrd, Stp 5
Coal -Rocky Mtns, Bit., Low Sul., Undergrd, Stp 6
Coal -Rocky Mtns, Bit., Low Sul., Undergrd, Stp 7
Coal -Rocky Mtns, Bit., Low Sul., Undergrd, Stp 8
Coal -Rocky Mtn, Sub-Bit, Low Sul., Surface. Stp 1
Coal -Rocky Mtn, Sub-Bit, Low Sul., Surface. Stp 2
Coal -Rocky Mtn, Sub-Bit, Low Sul., Surface. Stp 3
Coal -Rocky Mtn, Sub-Bit, Low Sul., Surface. Stp 4
Coal -Rocky Mtn, Sub-Bit, Low Sul., Surface. Stp 5
Coal -Rocky Mtn, Sub-Bit, Low Sul., Surface. Stp 6
Coal -Rocky Mtn, Sub-Bit, Low Sul., Surface. Stp 7
Coal -Rocky Mtn, Sub-Bit, Low Sul., Surface. Stp 8
Coal -Southwest, Bit, Low Sul., Surface. Stp 1
Coal -Southwest, Bit, Low Sul., Surface. Stp 2
Coal -Southwest, Bit, Low Sul., Surface. Stp 3
Coal -Southwest, Bit, Low Sul., Surface. Stp 4
Coal -Southwest, Bit, Low Sul., Surface. Stp 5
Coal -Southwest, Bit, Low Sul., Surface. Stp 6
Coal -Southwest, Bit, Low Sul., Surface. Stp 7
START
year
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
CUM
PJ
325906
21541
22374
18509
9357
19303
24904
25776
1 73838
24880
26931
23044
11943
25085
33332
35560
69411
5828
6160
5173
2662
5507
7211
7585
101
7
7
6
3
6
8
8
6959
471
488
404
206
423
545
1995
0.254
0.261
0.267
0.273
0.276
0.281
0.288
0.295
0.372
0.379
0.388
0.396
0.400
0.408
0.418
0.427
0.604
0.620
0.637
0.650
0.656
0.669
0.686
0.702
0.817
0.839
0.861
0.879
0.887
0.905
0.927
0.949
0.792
0.813
0.834
0.852
0.860
0.877
0.899
2000
0.254
0.261
0.267
0.273
0.276
0.281
0.288
0.295
0.372
0.379
0.388
0.396
0.400
0.408
0.418
0.427
0.604
0.620
0.637
0.650
0.656
0.669
0.686
0.702
0.817
0.839
0.861
0.879
0.887
0.905
0.927
0.949
0.792
0.813
0.834
0.852
0.860
0.877
0.899
2005
0.224
0.230
0.236
0.241
0.243
0.248
0.254
0.260
0.315
0.323
0.332
0.338
0.342
0.349
0.357
0.366
0.607
0.623
0.640
0.653
0.659
0.672
0.689
0.705
0.702
0.721
0.740
0.755
0.762
0.778
0.797
0.816
0.748
0.768
0.788
0.804
0.812
0.828
0.849
COST
95USmillion$/PJ
2010 2015 2020
0.211
0.216
0.222
0.227
0.229
0.233
0.239
0.245
0.305
0.313
0.321
0.328
0.331
0.337
0.346
0.354
0.583
0.598
0.614
0.627
0.633
0.645
0.661
0.677
0.606
0.622
0.639
0.652
0.659
0.671
0.688
0.704
0.742
0.762
0.783
0.799
0.807
0.823
0.843
0.220
0.226
0.232
0.237
0.239
0.244
0.250
0.256
0.300
0.308
0.316
0.323
0.326
0.332
0.340
0.349
0.574
0.589
0.605
0.617
0.624
0.636
0.651
0.667
0.547
0.562
0.576
0.588
0.594
0.606
0.621
0.635
0.746
0.766
0.786
0.803
0.811
0.827
0.847
0.230
0.236
0.243
0.248
0.250
0.255
0.261
0.267
0.310
0.319
0.327
0.334
0.337
0.344
0.352
0.361
0.564
0.579
0.594
0.607
0.613
0.625
0.640
0.655
0.537
0.552
0.566
0.578
0.584
0.595
0.610
0.624
0.746
0.766
0.786
0.802
0.811
0.827
0.847
2025
0.230
0.236
0.243
0.248
0.250
0.255
0.261
0.267
0.310
0.319
0.327
0.334
0.337
0.344
0.352
0.361
0.564
0.579
0.594
0.607
0.613
0.625
0.640
0.655
0.537
0.552
0.566
0.578
0.584
0.595
0.610
0.624
0.746
0.766
0.786
0.802
0.811
0.827
0.847
2030
0.230
0.236
0.243
0.248
0.250
0.255
0.261
0.267
0.310
0.319
0.327
0.334
0.337
0.344
0.352
0.361
0.564
0.579
0.594
0.607
0.613
0.625
0.640
0.655
0.537
0.552
0.566
0.578
0.584
0.595
0.610
0.624
0.746
0.766
0.786
0.802
0.811
0.827
0.847
2035
0.230
0.236
0.243
0.248
0.250
0.255
0.261
0.267
0.310
0.319
0.327
0.334
0.337
0.344
0.352
0.361
0.564
0.579
0.594
0.607
0.613
0.625
0.640
0.655
0.537
0.552
0.566
0.578
0.584
0.595
0.610
0.624
0.746
0.766
0.786
0.802
0.811
0.827
0.847
continued
-------
oo
START CUM COST
year PJ 95USmillion$/PJ
MARKAL Technology Name 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
MINCSBLS8 Coal -Southwest, Bit, Low Sul., Surface. Stp 8
MINCSSMS1 Coal -Southwest, Sub-bit, Med Sul., Surface. Stp 1
MINCSSMS2 Coal -Southwest, Sub-bit, Med Sul., Surface. Stp 2
MINCSSMS3 Coal -Southwest, Sub-bit, Med Sul., Surface. Stp 3
MINCSSMS4 Coal -Southwest, Sub-bit, Med Sul., Surface. Stp 4
MINCSSMS5 Coal -Southwest, Sub-bit, Med Sul., Surface. Stp 5
MINCSSMS6 Coal -Southwest, Sub-bit, Med Sul., Surface. Stp 6
MINCSSMS7 Coal -Southwest, Sub-bit, Med Sul., Surface. Stp 7
MINCSSMS8 Coal -Southwest, Sub-bit, Med Sul., Surface. Stp 8
1995 565 0.920 0.920 0.869 0.863 0.867
1995 22215 0.927 0.927 0.916 0.923 0.905
1995 1493 0.952 0.952 0.941 0.948 0.930
1995 1552 0.978 0.978 0.966 0.973 0.954
1995 1284 0.998 0.998 0.986 0.993 0.974
1995 655 1.008 1.008 0.996 1.003 0.984
1995 1341 1.028 1.028 1.015 1.023 1.003
1995 1732 1.053 1.053 1.040 1.048 1.028
1995 1794 1.078 1.078 1.065 1.072 1.052
0.867
0.898
0.922
0.947
0.966
0.976
0.995
1.020
1.044
2025
0.867
0.898
0.922
0.947
0.966
0.976
0.995
1.020
1.044
2030 2035
0.867 0.867
0.898 0.898
0.922 0.922
0.947 0.947
0.966 0.966
0.976 0.976
0.995 0.995
1 .020 1 .020
1 .044 1 .044
BOUND(BD)Or
PJ
MARKAL
MINCABHS1
MINCABHS2
MINCABHS3
MINCABHS4
MINCABHS5
MINCABHS6
MINCABHS7
MINCABHS8
MINCABHU1
MINCABHU2
MINCABHU3
MINCABHU4
MINCABHU5
MINCABHU6
MINCABHU7
MINCABHU8
MINCABLS1
MINCABLS2
MINCABLS3
MINCABLS4
MINCABLS5
MINCABLS6
MINCABLS7
MINCABLS8
MINCABLU1
Technology Name
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Bit., High Sulfur, Surface, Stp 1
Bit., High Sulfur, Surface, Stp 2
Bit., High Sulfur, Surface, Stp 3
Bit., High Sulfur, Surface, Stp 4
Bit., High Sulfur, Surface, Stp 5
Bit., High Sulfur, Surface, Stp 6
Bit., High Sulfur, Surface, Stp 7
Bit., High Sulfur, Surface, Stp 8
Bit., High Sulfur, Undergrd, Stp 1
Bit., High Sulfur, Undergrd, Stp 2
Bit., High Sulfur, Undergrd, Stp 3
Bit., High Sulfur, Undergrd, Stp 4
Bit., High Sulfur, Undergrd, Stp 5
Bit., High Sulfur, Undergrd, Stp 6
Bit., High Sulfur, Undergrd, Stp 7
Bit., High Sulfur, Undergrd, Stp 8
Bitum., Low Sulfur, Surface, Stp 1
Bitum., Low Sulfur, Surface, Stp 2
Bitum., Low Sulfur, Surface, Stp 3
Bitum., Low Sulfur, Surface, Stp 4
Bitum., Low Sulfur, Surface, Stp 5
Bitum., Low Sulfur, Surface, Stp 6
Bitum., Low Sulfur, Surface, Stp 7
Bitum., Low Sulfur, Surface, Stp 8
Bitum., Low Sulfur, Undergrd, Stp 1
1995
327.23
26.39
27.56
23.00
11.78
24.18
31.35
32.69
826.91
82.59
88.07
74.60
38.63
80.28
105.90
112.25
829.22
69.45
72.90
60.84
31.37
64.24
83.67
87.22
744.32
2000
327.23
26.39
27.56
23.00
11.78
24.18
31.35
32.69
826.91
82.59
88.07
74.60
38.63
80.28
105.90
112.25
829.22
69.45
72.90
60.84
31.37
64.24
83.67
87.22
744.32
2005
269.85
22.03
23.06
19.21
9.84
20.29
26.28
27.46
741 .96
74.65
79.67
67.47
34.99
72.70
95.91
101.65
736.29
62.39
65.42
860.06
27.88
57.72
74.92
78.27
749.76
2010
267.70
21.93
22.95
19.16
9.84
20.13
26.08
27.26
822.14
82.69
88.33
74.80
38.78
80.54
106.31
112.71
659.68
56.13
58.84
49.28
25.22
51.94
67.60
70.42
735.64
2015
249.05
20.39
21.36
17.78
9.07
18.80
24.28
25.31
848.27
85.46
91.14
77.26
39.96
83.25
109.79
116.45
630.21
53.85
56.45
47.21
24.11
49.81
64.73
67.55
735.30
2020
236.61
19.47
20.24
16.91
8.62
17.93
23.14
24.17
851 .84
85.82
91.62
77.70
40.30
83.68
110.41
117.07
581.92
49.92
52.40
43.90
22.22
46.29
60.01
62.67
644.64
2025
236.61
19.47
20.24
16.91
8.62
17.93
23.14
24.17
851 .84
85.82
91.62
77.70
40.30
83.68
110.41
117.07
581.92
49.92
52.40
43.90
22.22
46.29
60.01
62.67
644.64
2030
236.61
19.47
20.24
16.91
8.62
17.93
23.14
24.17
851 .84
85.82
91.62
77.70
40.30
83.68
110.41
117.07
581.92
49.92
52.40
43.90
22.22
46.29
60.01
62.67
644.64
2035
236.61
19.47
20.24
16.91
8.62
17.93
23.14
24.17
851 .84
85.82
91.62
77.70
40.30
83.68
110.41
117.07
581.92
49.92
52.40
43.90
22.22
46.29
60.01
62.67
644.64
continued
-------
MARKAL
Technology Name
1995
2000
2005
BOUND(BD)Or
PJ
2010 2015 2020
2025
2030
2035
MINCABLU2
MINCABLU3
MINCABLU4
MINCABLU5
MINCABLU6
MINCABLU7
MINCABLU8
MINCABMS1
MINCABMS2
MINCABMS3
MINCABMS4
MINCABMS5
MINCABMS6
MINCABMS7
MINCABMS8
MINCABMU1
MINCABMU2
MINCABMU3
oo MINCABMU4
00 MINCABMU5
MINCABMU6
MINCABMU7
MINCABMU8
MINCAGHS1
MINCAGHS2
MINCAGHS3
MINCAGHS4
MINCAGHS5
MINCAGHS6
MINCAGHS7
MINCAGHS8
MINCALMS1
MINCALMS2
MINCALMS3
MINCALMS4
MINCALMS5
MINCALMS6
MINCALMS7
MINCALMS8
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Coal -App.,
Bitum., Low Sulfur, Undergrd, Stp 2
Bitum., Low Sulfur, Undergrd, Stp 3
Bitum., Low Sulfur, Undergrd, Stp 4
Bitum., Low Sulfur, Undergrd, Stp 5
Bitum., Low Sulfur, Undergrd, Stp 6
Bitum., Low Sulfur, Undergrd, Stp 7
Bitum., Low Sulfur, Undergrd, Stp 8
Bitum., Med Sulfur, Surface, Stp 1
Bitum., Med Sulfur, Surface, Stp 2
Bitum., Med Sulfur, Surface, Stp 3
Bitum., Med Sulfur, Surface, Stp 4
Bitum., Med Sulfur, Surface, Stp 5
Bitum., Med Sulfur, Surface, Stp 6
Bitum., Med Sulfur, Surface, Stp 7
Bitum., Med Sulfur, Surface, Stp 8
Bitum., Med Sulfur, Undergrd, Stp 1
Bitum., Med Sulfur, Undergrd, Stp 2
Bitum., Med Sulfur, Undergrd, Stp 3
Bitum., Med Sulfur, Undergrd, Stp 4
Bitum., Med Sulfur, Undergrd, Stp 5
Bitum., Med Sulfur, Undergrd, Stp 6
Bitum., Med Sulfur, Undergrd, Stp 7
Bitum., Med Sulfur, Undergrd, Stp 8
Gob, High Sulfur, Stp 1
Gob, High Sulfur, Stp 2
Gob, High Sulfur, Stp 3
Gob, High Sulfur, Stp 4
Gob, High Sulfur, Stp 5
Gob, High Sulfur, Stp 6
Gob, High Sulfur, Stp 7
Gob, High Sulfur, Stp 8
Lignite, Med. Sulfur, Surface, Stp 1
Lignite, Med. Sulfur, Surface, Stp 2
Lignite, Med. Sulfur, Surface, Stp 3
Lignite, Med. Sulfur, Surface, Stp 4
Lignite, Med. Sulfur, Surface, Stp 5
Lignite, Med. Sulfur, Surface, Stp 6
Lignite, Med. Sulfur, Surface, Stp 7
Lignite, Med. Sulfur, Surface, Stp 8
91.77
99.35
85.19
44.61
93.35
1 24.58
133.65
1 947.42
138.88
144.68
120.06
61.32
125.81
162.51
168.58
2838.37
283.62
302.90
256.57
132.92
276.22
364.55
386.63
100.09
6.53
6.77
5.61
2.86
5.82
7.53
7.79
25.99
1.00
1.03
0.87
0.43
0.87
1.14
1.14
91.77
99.35
85.19
44.61
93.35
124.58
133.65
1947.42
138.88
1 44.68
120.06
61.32
125.81
162.51
168.58
2838.37
283.62
302.90
256.57
132.92
276.22
364.55
386.63
100.09
6.53
6.77
5.61
2.86
5.82
7.53
7.79
25.99
1.00
1.03
0.87
0.43
0.87
1.14
1.14
95.37
103.64
89.11
46.59
97.64
130.70
140.50
1924.82
137.62
143.32
118.90
60.82
1 24.55
161.17
167.18
3014.43
301.19
321 .45
272.34
141.07
293.18
386.89
410.22
126.71
8.29
8.60
7.13
3.65
7.42
9.60
9.91
33.14
1.49
1.52
1.25
0.62
1.25
1.65
1.65
95.04
103.40
89.04
46.51
97.77
130.97
141.03
1966.21
140.65
146.51
121.61
62.10
127.32
1 64.67
170.91
2973.15
296.71
316.67
268.32
138.91
288.86
381 .05
404.09
127.05
8.34
8.66
7.16
3.67
7.48
9.60
9.94
35.14
1.57
1.62
1.35
0.68
1.35
1.76
1.76
95.26
103.73
89.32
46.78
98.26
131.58
141.68
1866.14
133.57
139.16
115.37
58.93
120.92
156.32
162.07
2903.93
290.07
309.61
262.30
135.80
282.43
372.46
395.12
126.42
8.26
8.60
7.08
3.65
7.42
9.57
9.91
35.14
1.62
1.62
1.35
0.68
1.35
1.76
1.76
83.83
91.07
78.52
41.07
86.46
115.78
124.69
1795.75
128.43
133.88
111.03
56.70
116.22
150.33
155.96
2977.40
297.52
317.74
269.20
139.25
289.87
382.38
405.41
126.33
8.26
8.57
7.08
3.67
7.39
9.57
9.88
35.28
1.62
1.62
1.35
0.68
1.35
1.76
1.76
83.83
91.07
78.52
41.07
86.46
115.78
124.69
1795.75
128.43
133.88
111.03
56.70
116.22
150.33
155.96
2977.40
297.52
317.74
269.20
139.25
289.87
382.38
405.41
126.33
8.26
8.57
7.08
3.67
7.39
9.57
9.88
35.28
1.62
1.62
1.35
0.68
1.35
1.76
1.76
83.83
91.07
78.52
41.07
86.46
115.78
124.69
1795.75
128.43
133.88
111.03
56.70
116.22
150.33
155.96
2977.40
297.52
317.74
269.20
139.25
289.87
382.38
405.41
126.33
8.26
8.57
7.08
3.67
7.39
9.57
9.88
35.28
1.62
1.62
1.35
0.68
1.35
1.76
1.76
83.83
91.07
78.52
41.07
86.46
115.78
124.69
1795.75
128.43
133.88
111.03
56.70
116.22
150.33
155.96
2977.40
297.52
317.74
269.20
139.25
289.87
382.38
405.41
126.33
8.26
8.57
7.08
3.67
7.39
9.57
9.88
35.28
1.62
1.62
1.35
0.68
1.35
1.76
1.76
continued
-------
oo
VO
MARKAL
MINCAMLU1
MINCAMLU2
MINCAMLU3
MINCAMLU4
MINCAMLU5
MINCAMLU6
MINCAMLU7
MINCAMLU8
MINCAMMU1
MINCAMMU2
MINCAMMU3
MINCAMMU4
MINCAMMU5
MINCAMMU6
MINCAMMU7
MINCAMMU8
MINCDLMS1
MINCDLMS2
MINCDLMS3
MINCDLMS4
MINCDLMS5
MINCDLMS6
MINCDLMS7
MINCDLMS8
MINCGLHS1
MINCGLHS2
MINCGLHS3
MINCGLHS4
MINCGLHS5
MINCGLHS6
MINCGLHS7
MINCGLHS8
MINCGLMS1
MINCGLMS2
MINCGLMS3
MINCGLMS4
MINCGLMS5
MINCGLMS6
MINCGLMS7
Technology Name
Coal -App., Met., Low Sul., Undergrd, Stp 1
Coal -App., Met., Low Sul., Undergrd, Stp 2
Coal -App., Met., Low Sul., Undergrd, Stp 3
Coal -App., Met., Low Sul., Undergrd, Stp 4
Coal -App., Met., Low Sul., Undergrd, Stp 5
Coal -App., Met., Low Sul., Undergrd, Stp 6
Coal -App., Met., Low Sul., Undergrd, Stp 7
Coal -App., Met., Low Sul., Undergrd, Stp 8
Coal -App., Met., Med Sul., Undergrd, Stp 1
Coal -App., Met., Med Sul., Undergrd, Stp 2
Coal -App., Met., Med Sul., Undergrd, Stp 3
Coal -App., Met., Med Sul., Undergrd, Stp 4
Coal -App., Met., Med Sul., Undergrd, Stp 5
Coal -App., Met., Med Sul., Undergrd, Stp 6
Coal -App., Met., Med Sul., Undergrd, Stp 7
Coal -App., Met., Med Sul., Undergrd, Stp 8
Coal -Dakota, Lignite, Med. Sulf., Surface, Stp 1
Coal -Dakota, Lignite, Med. Sulf., Surface, Stp 2
Coal -Dakota, Lignite, Med. Sulf., Surface, Stp 3
Coal -Dakota, Lignite, Med. Sulf., Surface, Stp 4
Coal -Dakota, Lignite, Med. Sulf., Surface, Stp 5
Coal -Dakota, Lignite, Med. Sulf., Surface, Stp 6
Coal -Dakota, Lignite, Med. Sulf., Surface, Stp 7
Coal -Dakota, Lignite, Med. Sulf., Surface, Stp 8
Coal -Gulf, Lignite, High Sulfur, Surface, Stp 1
Coal -Gulf, Lignite, High Sulfur, Surface, Stp 2
Coal -Gulf, Lignite, High Sulfur, Surface, Stp 3
Coal -Gulf, Lignite, High Sulfur, Surface, Stp 4
Coal -Gulf, Lignite, High Sulfur, Surface, Stp 5
Coal -Gulf, Lignite, High Sulfur, Surface, Stp 6
Coal -Gulf, Lignite, High Sulfur, Surface, Stp 7
Coal -Gulf, Lignite, High Sulfur, Surface, Stp 8
Coal -Gulf, Lignite, Med. Sulfur, Surface, Stp 1
Coal -Gulf, Lignite, Med. Sulfur, Surface, Stp 2
Coal -Gulf, Lignite, Med. Sulfur, Surface, Stp 3
Coal -Gulf, Lignite, Med. Sulfur, Surface, Stp 4
Coal -Gulf, Lignite, Med. Sulfur, Surface, Stp 5
Coal -Gulf, Lignite, Med. Sulfur, Surface, Stp 6
Coal -Gulf, Lignite, Med. Sulfur, Surface, Stp 7
1995
103.66
11.42
12.22
10.41
5.43
11.31
14.93
16.06
1140.58
145.45
157.89
135.72
71.03
148.79
199.00
213.76
369.81
25.06
26.07
21.58
10.95
22.56
29.10
30.14
261.51
20.35
21.25
17.68
9.03
18.58
24.12
25.10
345.20
27.37
28.64
23.85
12.16
25.07
32.54
2000
103.66
11.42
12.22
10.41
5.43
11.31
14.93
16.06
1140.58
145.45
157.89
135.72
71.03
148.79
199.00
213.76
369.81
25.06
26.07
21.58
10.95
22.56
29.10
30.14
261.51
20.35
21.25
17.68
9.03
18.58
24.12
25.10
345.20
27.37
28.64
23.85
12.16
25.07
32.54
2005
92.57
10.29
11.08
9.44
4.86
10.24
13.46
14.42
1059.99
137.48
149.63
128.65
67.41
141.21
189.05
203.53
385.21
26.07
27.14
22.45
11.39
23.49
30.28
31.38
248.88
19.48
20.35
16.94
8.65
17.79
23.11
24.01
334.67
26.67
27.94
23.20
11.86
24.42
31.73
BOUND(BD)Or
PJ
2010 2015 2020
90.09
9.95
10.80
9.10
4.75
9.95
13.18
14.14
1042.97
135.67
147.60
126.96
66.56
139.45
186.62
200.81
387.80
26.24
27.28
22.59
11.48
23.60
30.48
31.57
242.06
18.99
19.81
16.51
8.43
17.38
22.51
23.38
268.91
21.69
22.71
18.90
9.66
19.90
25.83
75.50
8.48
9.10
7.80
4.02
8.43
11.25
11.93
1033.98
134.53
146.30
126.00
65.88
138.38
185.09
199.12
391.56
26.52
27.53
22.79
11.56
23.85
30.73
31.85
217.07
17.05
17.84
14.84
7.58
15.66
20.30
21.12
224.11
18.22
19.06
15.89
8.12
16.76
21.71
68.14
7.82
8.39
6.97
3.68
7.63
10.08
10.93
1028.29
133.65
145.34
125.17
65.50
137.23
183.79
197.74
392.20
26.57
27.60
22.83
11.60
23.85
30.78
31.90
208.49
16.46
17.14
14.28
7.28
15.05
19.51
20.33
206.11
16.83
17.64
14.71
7.54
15.48
20.08
2025
68.14
7.82
8.39
6.97
3.68
7.63
10.08
10.93
1028.29
133.65
145.34
125.17
65.50
137.23
183.79
197.74
392.20
26.57
27.60
22.83
11.60
23.85
30.78
31.90
208.49
16.46
17.14
14.28
7.28
15.05
19.51
20.33
206.11
16.83
17.64
14.71
7.54
15.48
20.08
2030
68.14
7.82
8.39
6.97
3.68
7.63
10.08
10.93
1028.29
133.65
145.34
125.17
65.50
137.23
183.79
197.74
392.20
26.57
27.60
22.83
11.60
23.85
30.78
31.90
208.49
16.46
17.14
14.28
7.28
15.05
19.51
20.33
206.11
16.83
17.64
14.71
7.54
15.48
20.08
2035
68.14
7.82
8.39
6.97
3.68
7.63
10.08
10.93
1028.29
133.65
145.34
125.17
65.50
137.23
183.79
197.74
392.20
26.57
27.60
22.83
11.60
23.85
30.78
31.90
208.49
16.46
17.14
14.28
7.28
15.05
19.51
20.33
206.11
16.83
17.64
14.71
7.54
15.48
20.08
continued
-------
VO
o
MARKAL
MINCGLMS8
MINCIBHS1
MINCIBHS2
MINCIBHS3
MINCIBHS4
MINCIBHS5
MINCIBHS6
MINCIBHS7
MINCIBHS8
MINCIBHU1
MINCIBHU2
MINCIBHU3
MINCIBHU4
MINCIBHU5
MINCIBHU6
MINCIBHU7
MINCIBHU8
MINCIBMS1
MINCIBMS2
MINCIBMS3
MINCIBMS4
MINCIBMS5
MINCIBMS6
MINCIBMS7
MINCIBMS8
MINCIBMU1
MINCIBMU2
MINCIBMU3
MINCIBMU4
MINCIBMU5
MINCIBMU6
MINCIBMU7
MINCIBMU8
MINCNSMS1
MINCNSMS2
MINCNSMS3
MINCNSMS4
MINCNSMS5
MINCNSMS6
Technology Name
Coal -Gulf, Lignite, Med. Sulfur, Surface, Stp 8
Coal -Interior, Bit., High Sulfur, Surface, Stp 1
Coal -Interior, Bit., High Sulfur, Surface, Stp 2
Coal -Interior, Bit., High Sulfur, Surface, Stp 3
Coal -Interior, Bit., High Sulfur, Surface, Stp 4
Coal -Interior, Bit., High Sulfur, Surface, Stp 5
Coal -Interior, Bit., High Sulfur, Surface, Stp 6
Coal -Interior, Bit., High Sulfur, Surface, Stp 7
Coal -Interior, Bit., High Sulfur, Surface, Stp 8
Coal -Interior, Bit., High Sul., Undergrd, Stp 1
Coal -Interior, Bit., High Sul., Undergrd, Stp 2
Coal -Interior, Bit., High Sul., Undergrd, Stp 3
Coal -Interior, Bit., High Sul., Undergrd, Stp 4
Coal -Interior, Bit., High Sul., Undergrd, Stp 5
Coal -Interior, Bit., High Sul., Undergrd, Stp 6
Coal -Interior, Bit., High Sul., Undergrd, Stp 7
Coal -Interior, Bit., High Sul., Undergrd, Stp 8
Coal -Interior, Bit., Med Sulfur, Surface, Stp 1
Coal -Interior, Bit., Med Sulfur, Surface, Stp 2
Coal -Interior, Bit., Med Sulfur, Surface, Stp 3
Coal -Interior, Bit., Med Sulfur, Surface, Stp 4
Coal -Interior, Bit., Med Sulfur, Surface, Stp 5
Coal -Interior, Bit., Med Sulfur, Surface, Stp 6
Coal -Interior, Bit., Med Sulfur, Surface, Stp 7
Coal -Interior, Bit., Med Sulfur, Surface, Stp 8
Coal -Interior, Bit., Med. Sulfur, Undergrd Stp 1
Coal -Interior, Bit., Med. Sulfur, Undergrd Stp 2
Coal -Interior, Bit., Med. Sulfur, Undergrd Stp 3
Coal -Interior, Bit., Med. Sulfur, Undergrd Stp 4
Coal -Interior, Bit., Med. Sulfur, Undergrd Stp 5
Coal -Interior, Bit., Med. Sulfur, Undergrd Stp 6
Coal -Interior, Bit., Med. Sulfur, Undergrd Stp 7
Coal -Interior, Bit., Med. Sulfur, Undergrd Stp 8
Coal -Northwest: Sub-bit, Med Sul., Surface. Stp 1
Coal -Northwest: Sub-bit, Med Sul., Surface. Stp 2
Coal -Northwest: Sub-bit, Med Sul., Surface. Stp 3
Coal -Northwest: Sub-bit, Med Sul., Surface. Stp 4
Coal -Northwest: Sub-bit, Med Sul., Surface. Stp 5
Coal -Northwest: Sub-bit, Med Sul., Surface. Stp 6
1995
33.90
694.92
52.44
54.67
45.43
23.29
47.62
61.76
64.19
650.99
60.07
63.81
53.86
27.81
57.70
75.80
80.06
146.72
15.25
16.12
13.62
7.05
14.48
18.99
20.00
402.55
42.69
45.66
38.80
20.10
41.97
55.45
58.95
72.15
8.02
8.51
7.19
3.68
7.69
2000
33.90
694.92
52.44
54.67
45.43
23.29
47.62
61.76
64.19
650.99
60.07
63.81
53.86
27.81
57.70
75.80
80.06
146.72
15.25
16.12
13.62
7.05
14.48
18.99
20.00
402.55
42.69
45.66
38.80
20.10
41.97
55.45
58.95
72.15
8.02
8.51
7.19
3.68
7.69
2005
33.03
717.78
54.21
56.59
47.07
24.03
49.39
63.95
66.58
690.16
63.67
67.65
57.08
29.51
61.11
80.39
84.84
135.59
14.29
15.16
12.81
6.57
13.67
17.94
18.80
370.94
39.57
42.45
36.02
18.66
38.95
51.56
54.82
80.77
8.94
9.54
8.05
4.14
8.58
BOUND(BD)Or
PJ
2010 2015 2020
26.91
766.16
57.96
60.47
50.24
25.64
52.66
68.31
71.13
775.67
71.67
76.08
64.14
33.07
68.74
90.34
95.41
123.84
13.24
14.10
11.85
6.14
12.61
16.60
17.46
343.56
36.93
39.62
33.67
17.51
36.40
48.20
51.22
82.39
9.08
9.71
8.18
4.27
8.75
22.63
709.97
53.79
56.07
46.64
23.84
48.87
63.34
66.01
810.30
74.85
79.49
67.03
34.63
71.82
94.41
99.67
107.48
11.61
12.33
10.41
5.37
11.13
14.68
15.44
351 .95
37.94
40.72
34.63
17.99
37.46
49.59
52.76
84.05
9.24
9.87
8.32
4.27
8.88
20.89
692.09
52.45
54.66
45.46
23.16
47.76
61.80
64.34
841 .56
77.77
82.51
69.72
35.92
74.61
98.06
103.59
105.20
11.43
12.07
10.23
5.28
10.95
14.47
15.19
366.36
39.57
42.53
36.13
18.71
39.09
51.72
55.08
85.31
9.44
9.94
8.45
4.31
9.00
2025
20.89
692.09
52.45
54.66
45.46
23.16
47.76
61.80
64.34
841 .56
77.77
82.51
69.72
35.92
74.61
98.06
103.59
105.20
11.43
12.07
10.23
5.28
10.95
14.47
15.19
366.36
39.57
42.53
36.13
18.71
39.09
51.72
55.08
85.31
9.44
9.94
8.45
4.31
9.00
2030
20.89
692.09
52.45
54.66
45.46
23.16
47.76
61.80
64.34
841 .56
77.77
82.51
69.72
35.92
74.61
98.06
103.59
105.20
11.43
12.07
10.23
5.28
10.95
14.47
15.19
366.36
39.57
42.53
36.13
18.71
39.09
51.72
55.08
85.31
9.44
9.94
8.45
4.31
9.00
2035
20.89
692.09
52.45
54.66
45.46
23.16
47.76
61.80
64.34
841 .56
77.77
82.51
69.72
35.92
74.61
98.06
103.59
105.20
11.43
12.07
10.23
5.28
10.95
14.47
15.19
366.36
39.57
42.53
36.13
18.71
39.09
51.72
55.08
85.31
9.44
9.94
8.45
4.31
9.00
continued
-------
MARKAL
Technology Name
1995
2000
2005
BOUND(BD)Or
PJ
2010 2015 2020
2025
2030
2035
MINCNSMS7
MINCNSMS8
MINCPBLU1
MINCPBLU2
MINCPBLU3
MINCPBLU4
MINCPBLU5
MINCPBLU6
MINCPBLU7
MINCPBLU8
MINCPSLS1
MINCPSLS2
MINCPSLS3
MINCPSLS4
MINCPSLS5
MINCPSLS6
MINCPSLS7
MINCPSLS8
MINCPSMS1
MINCPSMS2
MINCPSMS3
MINCPSMS4
MINCPSMS5
MINCPSMS6
MINCPSMS7
MINCPSMS8
MINCRBLU1
MINCRBLU2
MINCRBLU3
MINCRBLU4
MINCRBLU5
MINCRBLU6
MINCRBLU7
MINCRBLU8
MINCRSLS1
MINCRSLS2
MINCRSLS3
MINCRSLS4
MINCRSLS5
Coal -Northwest: Sub-bit, Med Sul., Surface. Stp 7
Coal -Northwest: Sub-bit, Med Sul., Surface. Stp 8
Coal -Power River, Bit., Low Sul, Undergrd, Stp 1
Coal -Power River, Bit., Low Sul, Undergrd, Stp 2
Coal -Power River, Bit., Low Sul, Undergrd, Stp 3
Coal -Power River, Bit., Low Sul, Undergrd, Stp 4
Coal -Power River, Bit., Low Sul, Undergrd, Stp 5
Coal -Power River, Bit., Low Sul, Undergrd, Stp 6
Coal -Power River, Bit., Low Sul, Undergrd, Stp 7
Coal -Power River, Bit., Low Sul, Undergrd, Stp 8
Coal -Power R, Sub-Bit, Low Sul, Surface, Stp 1
Coal -Power R, Sub-Bit, Low Sul, Surface, Stp 2
Coal -Power R, Sub-Bit, Low Sul, Surface, Stp 3
Coal -Power R, Sub-Bit, Low Sul, Surface, Stp 4
Coal -Power R, Sub-Bit, Low Sul, Surface, Stp 5
Coal -Power R, Sub-Bit, Low Sul, Surface, Stp 6
Coal -Power R, Sub-Bit, Low Sul, Surface, Stp 7
Coal -Power R, Sub-Bit, Low Sul, Surface, Stp 8
Coal -Power R, Sub-Bit, Med Sul, Surface, Stp 1
Coal -Power R, Sub-Bit, Med Sul, Surface, Stp 2
Coal -Power R, Sub-Bit, Med Sul, Surface, Stp 3
Coal -Power R, Sub-Bit, Med Sul, Surface, Stp 4
Coal -Power R, Sub-Bit, Med Sul, Surface, Stp 5
Coal -Power R, Sub-Bit, Med Sul, Surface, Stp 6
Coal -Power R, Sub-Bit, Med Sul, Surface, Stp 7
Coal -Power R, Sub-Bit, Med Sul, Surface, Stp 8
Coal -Rocky Mtns, Bit., Low Sul., Undergrd, Stp 1
Coal -Rocky Mtns, Bit., Low Sul., Undergrd, Stp 2
Coal -Rocky Mtns, Bit., Low Sul., Undergrd, Stp 3
Coal -Rocky Mtns, Bit., Low Sul., Undergrd, Stp 4
Coal -Rocky Mtns, Bit., Low Sul., Undergrd, Stp 5
Coal -Rocky Mtns, Bit., Low Sul., Undergrd, Stp 6
Coal -Rocky Mtns, Bit., Low Sul., Undergrd, Stp 7
Coal -Rocky Mtns, Bit., Low Sul., Undergrd, Stp 8
Coal -Rocky Mtn, Sub-Bit, Low Sul., Surface. Stp 1
Coal -Rocky Mtn, Sub-Bit, Low Sul., Surface. Stp 2
Coal -Rocky Mtn, Sub-Bit, Low Sul., Surface. Stp 3
Coal -Rocky Mtn, Sub-Bit, Low Sul., Surface. Stp 4
Coal -Rocky Mtn, Sub-Bit, Low Sul., Surface. Stp 5
10.17
10.67
14.59
1.32
1.45
1.36
0.50
0.82
1.14
0.23
5558.13
369.08
383.39
317.19
160.61
330.91
427.05
441 .99
484.53
61.30
65.73
55.89
28.86
60.37
79.72
84.56
1 054.46
88.74
93.81
78.76
40.60
83.88
109.87
115.62
189.11
12.36
12.79
10.62
5.42
10.17
10.67
14.59
1.32
1.45
1.36
0.50
0.82
1.14
0.23
5558.13
369.08
383.39
317.19
160.61
330.91
427.05
441 .99
484.53
61.30
65.73
55.89
28.86
60.37
79.72
84.56
1054.46
88.74
93.81
78.76
40.60
83.88
109.87
115.62
189.11
12.36
12.79
10.62
5.42
11.33
11.89
2.27
0.18
0.18
0.18
0.09
0.23
0.27
0.32
6888.87
455.16
472.78
391.13
197.68
407.90
526.24
544.74
328.49
47.80
51.75
44.33
22.97
48.25
64.21
68.53
1420.54
119.61
126.37
106.17
54.67
113.08
148.09
155.73
138.46
8.98
9.37
7.72
3.95
11.50
12.06
2.14
0.45
0.50
0.45
0.23
0.50
0.73
0.77
7972.84
525.43
545.73
451 .38
227.99
470.68
607.19
628.40
329.68
49.81
54.10
46.42
24.09
50.71
67.56
72.22
1454.27
122.09
129.10
108.41
55.69
115.32
151.05
158.89
100.34
6.42
6.63
5.51
2.86
11.69
12.36
1.36
0.23
0.32
0.27
0.23
0.32
0.45
0.50
9068.54
598.82
621 .90
514.50
260.02
536.52
692.17
716.36
281 .69
43.36
47.20
40.49
21.07
44.30
59.02
63.20
1509.43
126.62
133.82
112.35
57.78
119.56
156.56
164.64
80.09
5.12
5.33
4.38
2.17
11.82
12.42
0.76
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.00
0.23
0.23
0.30
9991 .33
660.94
686.50
567.98
287.20
592.32
764.23
790.96
344.52
50.89
55.24
47.35
24.55
51.64
68.67
73.33
1527.51
127.87
135.17
113.51
58.42
120.81
158.13
166.41
76.61
4.84
4.99
4.12
2.17
11.82
12.42
0.76
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.00
0.23
0.23
0.30
9991 .33
660.94
686.50
567.98
287.20
592.32
764.23
790.96
344.52
50.89
55.24
47.35
24.55
51.64
68.67
73.33
1527.51
127.87
135.17
113.51
58.42
120.81
158.13
166.41
76.61
4.84
4.99
4.12
2.17
11.82
12.42
0.76
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.00
0.23
0.23
0.30
9991 .33
660.94
686.50
567.98
287.20
592.32
764.23
790.96
344.52
50.89
55.24
47.35
24.55
51.64
68.67
73.33
1527.51
127.87
135.17
113.51
58.42
120.81
158.13
166.41
76.61
4.84
4.99
4.12
2.17
11.82
12.42
0.76
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.00
0.23
0.23
0.30
9991 .33
660.94
686.50
567.98
287.20
592.32
764.23
790.96
344.52
50.89
55.24
47.35
24.55
51.64
68.67
73.33
1527.51
127.87
135.17
113.51
58.42
120.81
158.13
166.41
76.61
4.84
4.99
4.12
2.17
continued
-------
VO
to
BOUND(BD)Or
PJ
MARKAL Technology Name
MINCRSLS6 Coal
MINCRSLS7 Coal
MINCRSLS8 Coal
MINCSBLS1 Coal
MINCSBLS2 Coal
MINCSBLS3 Coal
MINCSBLS4 Coal
MINCSBLS5 Coal
MINCSBLS6 Coal
MINCSBLS7 Coal
MINCSBLS8 Coal
MINCSSMS1 Coal
MINCSSMS2 Coal
MINCSSMS3 Coal
MINCSSMS4 Coal
MINCSSMS5 Coal
MINCSSMS6 Coal
MINCSSMS7 Coal
MINCSSMS8 Coal
-Rocky Mtn, Sub-Bit, Low Sul., Surface. Stp 6
-Rocky Mtn, Sub-Bit, Low Sul., Surface. Stp 7
-Rocky Mtn, Sub-Bit, Low Sul., Surface. Stp 8
-Southwest, Bit, Low Sul., Surface. Stp 1
-Southwest, Bit, Low Sul., Surface. Stp 2
-Southwest, Bit, Low Sul., Surface. Stp 3
-Southwest, Bit, Low Sul., Surface. Stp 4
-Southwest, Bit, Low Sul., Surface. Stp 5
-Southwest, Bit, Low Sul., Surface. Stp 6
-Southwest, Bit, Low Sul., Surface. Stp 7
-Southwest, Bit, Low Sul., Surface. Stp 8
-Southwest, Sub-bit, Med Sul., Surface. Stp 1
-Southwest, Sub-bit, Med Sul., Surface. Stp 2
-Southwest, Sub-bit, Med Sul., Surface. Stp 3
-Southwest, Sub-bit, Med Sul., Surface. Stp 4
-Southwest, Sub-bit, Med Sul., Surface. Stp 5
-Southwest, Sub-bit, Med Sul., Surface. Stp 6
-Southwest, Sub-bit, Med Sul., Surface. Stp 7
-Southwest, Sub-bit, Med Sul., Surface. Stp 8
1995
11.10
14.22
14.79
343.76
23.26
24.11
20.03
10.17
20.93
26.98
27.92
311.10
20.88
21.77
17.99
9.17
18.76
24.24
25.12
2000
11.10
14.22
14.79
343.76
23.26
24.11
20.03
10.17
20.93
26.98
27.92
311.10
20.88
21.77
17.99
9.17
18.76
24.24
25.12
2005
8.02
10.36
10.67
306.43
20.71
21.51
17.79
9.10
18.60
23.98
24.87
306.94
20.58
21.46
17.72
9.13
18.53
23.93
24.81
2010 2015
5.77
7.42
7.72
4.51
5.90
6.07
299.39 299.61
20.21
21.02
17.39
8.87
18.15
23.49
24.34
20.26
21.06
17.39
8.87
18.15
23.44
24.29
310.98 293.49
20.92
21.69
17.99
9.17
18.80
24.27
25.12
19.77
20.54
16.95
8.63
17.69
22.89
23.73
2020
4.34
5.64
5.85
297.60
20.17
20.84
17.26
8.74
18.15
23.31
24.20
282.75
19.01
19.71
16.31
8.28
17.08
22.03
22.80
2025
4.34
5.64
5.85
297.60
20.17
20.84
17.26
8.74
18.15
23.31
24.20
282.75
19.01
19.71
16.31
8.28
17.08
22.03
22.80
2030
4.34
5.64
5.85
297.60
20.17
20.84
17.26
8.74
18.15
23.31
24.20
282.75
19.01
19.71
16.31
8.28
17.08
22.03
22.80
2035
4.34
5.64
5.85
297.60
20.17
20.84
17.26
8.74
18.15
23.31
24.20
282.75
19.01
19.71
16.31
8.28
17.08
22.03
22.80
DOMESTIC OIL AND GAS RESOURCE SUPPLY
START
MINOIL1
MINOIL2
MINOIL3
MINOILA
MINOILB
MINOILC
MINNGA1
MINNGA2
MINNGA3
MINNGL1
MINNGL2
MINNGL3
Domestic crude oil -Lower 48-Step1
Domestic crude oil -Lower 48-Step2
Domestic crude oil -Lower 48-Step3
Domestic crude oil - Alaska - Stepl
Domestic crude oil - Alaska - Step2
Domestic crude oil - Alaska - StepS
Domestic Dry Natural Gas- Step 1
Domestic Dry Natural Gas- Step 2
Domestic Dry Natural Gas- Step 3
Domestic Natural Gas Plant Liquids- Step 1
Domestic Natural Gas Plant Liquids- Step 2
Domestic Natural Gas Plant Liquids- Step 3
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
2.941
0.000
0.000
2.941
0.000
0.000
1.835
0.000
0.000
3.411
0.000
0.000
2000
3.180
0.000
0.000
3.180
0.000
0.000
2.517
0.000
0.000
3.688
0.000
0.000
2005
3.409
0.000
0.000
3.409
0.000
0.000
2.255
0.000
0.000
3.954
0.000
0.000
COST
2010 2015
2.646 2.646
3.503 3.599
4.501 4.565
2.646 2.646
3.503 3.599
4.501 4.565
2.255 2.442
2.416 2.603
2.806 2.849
3.069 3.069
4.064 4.175
5.221 5.296
2020
2.646
3.701
4.586
2.646
3.701
4.586
2.493
2.764
3.095
3.069
4.294
5.320
2025
2.721
3.806
4.716
2.721
3.806
4.716
2.647
2.935
3.286
3.156
4.415
5.471
2030
2.798
3.914
4.850
2.798
3.914
4.850
2.811
3.117
3.489
3.245
4.540
5.626
2035
2.877
4.025
4.987
2.877
4.025
4.987
2.985
3.310
3.705
3.337
4.669
5.785
-------
MINOIL1
MINOIL2
MINOIL3
MINOILA
MINOILB
MINOILC
MINNGA1
MINNGA2
MINNGA3
MINNGL1
MINNGL2
MINNGL3
Domestic crude oil -Lower 48-Step1
Domestic crude oil -Lower 48-Step2
Domestic crude oil -Lower 48-Step3
Domestic crude oil - Alaska - Step"!
Domestic crude oil - Alaska - Step2
Domestic crude oil - Alaska - StepS
Domestic Dry Natural Gas- Step 1
Domestic Dry Natural Gas- Step 2
Domestic Dry Natural Gas- Step 3
Domestic Natural Gas Plant Liquids- Step 1
Domestic Natural Gas Plant Liquids- Step 2
Domestic Natural Gas Plant Liquids- Step 3
1995
11467.064
0.000
0.000
3265.455
0.000
0.000
20179.731
0.000
0.000
2677.324
0.000
0.000
2000
10972.332
0.000
0.000
2328.480
0.000
0.000
20764.816
0.000
0.000
2781 .342
0.000
0.000
2005
10229.675
0.000
0.000
1786.843
0.000
0.000
22439.965
0.000
0.000
3210.980
0.000
0.000
BOUND(BD)Or
2010 2015 2020
9068.227
714.737
871 .086
1541.152
22.336
44.671
24888.771
559.180
611.932
3557.705
30.150
15.075
9023.556
1362.468
1183.783
1 987.863
22.336
44.671
27399.804
1118.359
654.135
3904.431
75.375
30.150
8621.517
1496.481
1764.507
2412.238
44.671
44.671
29520.467
1339.921
495.876
4175.781
105.525
60.300
2025
8399.026
1 457.862
1718.972
2948.291
54.598
54.598
31945.011
1 449.970
536.603
4492.128
113.519
64.868
2030
8182.277
1420.240
1674.611
3603.466
66.731
66.731
34568.686
1569.058
580.675
4832.441
122.119
69.783
2035
7971.121
1383.588
1631.395
4404.237
81.560
81.560
37407.846
1697.926
628.366
5198.535
131.371
75.069
IMPORTED CRUDE OIL
IMPOILHH1
IMPOILHH2
IMPOILHH3
IMPOILHL1
IMPOILHL2
IMPOILHL3
IMPOILHV1
IMPOILHV2
IMPOILHV3
IMPOILLL1
IMPOILLL2
IMPOILLL3
IMPOILMH1
IMPOILMH2
IMPOILMH3
Imported Oil-high sulfur, heavy gravity-Step 1
Imported Oil-high sulfur, heavy gravity-Step 2
Imported Oil-high sulfur, heavy gravity-Step 3
Imported Oil-high sulfur, low gravity-Step 1
Imported Oil-high sulfur, low gravity-Step 2
Imported Oil-high sulfur, low gravity-Step 3
Imported Oil-high sulfur, very high grav-Step 1
Imported Oil-high sulfur, very high grav-Step 2
Imported Oil-high sulfur, very high grav-Step 3
Imported Oil-low sulfur, low gravity-Step 1
Imported Oil-low sulfur, low gravity-Step 2
Imported Oil-low sulfur, low gravity-Step 3
Imported Oil-medium sulfur, heavy gravity-Step 1
Imported Oil-medium sulfur, heavy gravity-Step 2
Imported Oil-medium sulfur, heavy gravity-Step 3
FHH
FHH
FHH
FHL
FHL
FHL
FHV
FHV
FHV
FLL
FLL
FLL
FMH
FMH
FMH
START
year
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
2.420
2.563
2.699
2.580
2.731
2.890
1.916
2.042
2.172
2.951
3.128
3.285
2.718
2.873
3.031
2000
2.745
2.912
3.098
2.930
3.106
3.306
2.241
2.391
2.535
3.239
3.445
3.661
3.031
3.202
3.442
2005
2.986
3.214
3.406
3.156
3.323
3.530
2.536
2.643
2.808
3.532
3.783
3.957
3.335
3.508
3.745
COST
$95million/PJ
2010 2015 2020
3.088
3.359
3.413
3.302
3.400
3.567
2.626
2.730
2.854
3.678
4.033
4.058
3.488
3.617
3.827
3.156
3.543
3.592
3.449
3.520
3.780
2.718
2.898
3.055
3.880
4.243
4.336
3.616
3.746
4.101
3.293
3.695
3.743
3.603
3.677
3.936
2.853
3.043
3.147
4.065
4.470
4.574
3.748
3.870
4.284
2025
3.429
3.846
3.895
3.758
3.834
4.091
2.989
3.188
3.240
4.249
4.697
4.812
3.880
3.993
4.468
2030
3.572
4.004
4.052
3.920
3.998
4.253
3.130
3.340
3.335
4.442
4.936
5.063
4.017
4.121
4.660
2035
3.720
4.168
4.215
4.088
4.169
4.421
3.279
3.499
3.434
4.644
5.187
5.326
4.159
4.253
4.860
-------
VO
IMPOILHH1 Imported Oil-high sulfur, heavy gravity-Step 1
IMPOILHH2 Imported Oil-high sulfur, heavy gravity-Step 2
IMPOILHH3 Imported Oil-high sulfur, heavy gravity-Step 3
IMPOILHL1 Imported Oil-high sulfur, low gravity-Step 1
IMPOILHL2 Imported Oil-high sulfur, low gravity-Step 2
IMPOILHL3 Imported Oil-high sulfur, low gravity-Step 3
IMPOILHV1 Imported Oil-high sulfur, very high grav-Step 1
IMPOILHV2 Imported Oil-high sulfur, very high grav-Step 2
IMPOILHV3 Imported Oil-high sulfur, very high grav-Step 3
IMPOILLL1 Imported Oil-low sulfur, low gravity-Step 1
IMPOILLL2 Imported Oil-low sulfur, low gravity-Step 2
IMPOILLL3 Imported Oil-low sulfur, low gravity-Step 3
IMPOILMH1 Imported Oil-medium sulfur, heavy gravity-Step 1
IMPOILMH2 Imported Oil-medium sulfur, heavy gravity-Step 2
IMPOILMH3 Imported Oil-medium sulfur, heavy gravity-Step 3
IMPORTED REFINED PRODUCTS
IMPDHO1 Imported Diesel, Heating Oil-Step 1
IMPDHO2 Imported Diesel, Heating Oil-Step 2
IMPDHO3 Imported Diesel, Heating Oil-Step 3
IMPDSLL1 Imported Low Sulfur Diesel-Step 1
IMPDSLL2 Imported Low Sulfur Diesel-Step 2
IMPDSLL3 Imported Low Sulfur Diesel-Step 3
IMPDSLU1 Imported Ultra-low Sulfur Diesel-Step 1
IMPDSLU2 Imported Ultra-low Sulfur Diesel-Step 2
IMPDSLU3 Imported Ultra-low Sulfur Diesel-Step 3
IMPPFDST1 Imported Petroleum Feedstocks-Step 1
IMPPFDST2 Imported Petroleum Feedstocks-Step 2
IMPPFDST3 Imported Petroleum Feedstocks-Step 3
IMPGSL1 Imported Reform, and Conventional Gasoline-Step 1
IMPGSL2 Imported Reform, and Conventional Gasoline-Step 2
IMPGSL3 Imported Reform, and Conventional Gasoline-Step 3
IMPJTF1 Imported Jet Fuel-Step 1
IMPJTF2 Imported Jet Fuel-Step 2
FHH
FHH
FHH
FHL
FHL
FHL
FHV
FHV
FHV
FLL
FLL
FLL
FMH
FMH
FMH
START
year
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
2005
2005
2005
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
BOUND(BD)Or
PJ
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
2254.3 2444.3 2659.1 3047.1 4502.1 6015.0 8036.3 10736.9 14345.0
2126.0 2305.4 2483.5 2873.7 4245.5 5671.9 7577.4 10123.0 13524.0
2332.0 2559.1 2795.3 3186.8 4701.3 6276.6 8379.6 11187.4 14935.9
2918.2 4539.8 5650.1 6774.8 9947.2 13537.8 18424.5 25075.2 34126.5
2751.2 4280.3 5327.0 6387.6 9378.4 12763.6 17370.8 23641.0 32174.6
3025.6 4691.1 5827.5 6991.8 10205.9 13873.8 18860.1 25638.5 34852.9
680.0 785.7 867.7 1016.5 1483.0 1998.0 2691.9 3626.7 4886.1
638.5 741.4 818.4 958.7 1398.2 1883.5 2537.3 3418.0 4604.4
694.3 813.9 899.8 1053.5 1538.7 2073.9 2795.1 3767.1 5077.2
2302.7 2373.6 2485.9 2772.8 4105.8 5412.6 7135.2 9406.2 12399.9
2171.1 2224.0 2343.7 2614.4 3871.1 5103.3 6727.9 8869.5 11693.0
2393.6 2550.0 2658.5 3012.2 4151.7 5412.3 7055.8 9198.3 11991.5
993.4 1048.4 1115.3 1263.3 1855.3 2440.6 3210.6 4223.5 5556.0
937.6 989.6 1031.9 1219.6 1741.4 2301.5 3041.9 4020.5 5313.8
1071.7 1220.5 1457.5 1497.3 2100.8 2727.6 3541.4 4598.0 5969.8
COST
95m$/PJ
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
3.460 3.894 4.243 4.385 4.665 4.771 4.879 4.987 5.098
3.697 4.181 4.519 4.645 4.761 4.870 4.980 5.091 5.204
3.917 4.457 4.821 4.976 5.127 5.244 5.363 5.482 5.603
3.700 3.974 4.064 4.550 4.672 4.771 4.885 5.011 5.140
3.973 4.285 4.492 4.970 5.126 5.234 5.359 5.498 5.639
4.248 4.655 4.877 5.282 5.432 5.546 5.679 5.826 5.976
0.000 34.969 45.034 21.928 22.064 22.064 22.064 22.064 22.064
0.000 32.980 43.880 20.299 22.064 22.064 22.064 22.064 22.064
0.000 31.989 49.562 50.000 77.223 77.223 77.223 77.223 77.223
2.818 3.207 3.531 3.559 3.611 3.680 3.737 3.801 3.866
3.036 3.451 3.817 3.906 4.015 4.092 4.155 4.226 4.298
3.246 3.702 4.100 4.187 4.292 4.374 4.442 4.518 4.595
7.508 5.851 6.395 9.044 10.140 10.350 10.888 11.435 12.010
8.000 6.194 6.796 9.898 11.011 11.239 11.824 12.418 13.043
8.494 7.596 9.607 12.026 11.987 12.235 12.872 13.520 14.201
3.618 4.163 4.361 4.452 4.547 4.663 4.794 4.927 5.064
3.847 4.470 4.700 4.796 4.892 5.018 5.158 5.302 5.449
continued
-------
IMPJTF3
IMPKER1
IMPKER2
IMPKER3
IMPLPG1
IMPLPG2
IMPLPG3
IMPMETH1
IMPMETH2
IMPMETH3
IMPDSHH1
IMPDSHH2
IMPDSHH3
IMPDSHL1
IMPDSHL2
IMPDSHL3
IMPNGA1
IMPNGA2
IMPNGA3
BOUND(BD)Or
IMPDH01
IMPDH02
IMPDH03
IMPDSLL1
IMPDSLL2
IMPDSLL3
IMPDSLU1
IMPDSLU2
IMPDSLU3
IMPPFDST1
IMPPFDST2
IMPPFDST3
IMPGSL1
IMPGSL2
IMPGSL3
Imported Jet Fuel-Step 3
Imported Kerosene and Other Refined Prod. -Step 1
Imported Kerosene and Other Refined Prod. -Step 2
Imported Kerosene and Other Refined Prod. -Step 3
Imported Liquified Petroleum Gas-Step 1
Imported Liquified Petroleum Gas-Step 2
Imported Liquified Petroleum Gas-Step 3
Imported Methanol-Step 1
Imported Methanol-Step 2
Imported Methanol-Step 3
Imported High Sulfur Fuel Oil-Step 1
Imported High Sulfur Fuel Oil-Step 2
Imported High Sulfur Fuel Oil-Step 3
Imported Low Sulfur Fuel Oil-Step 1
Imported Low Sulfur Fuel Oil-Step 2
Imported Low Sulfur Fuel Oil-Step 3
Imported Natural Gas- Stepl
Imported Natural Gas- Step2
Imported Natural Gas- StepS
Imported Diesel, Heating Oil-Step 1
Imported Diesel, Heating Oil-Step 2
Imported Diesel, Heating Oil-Step 3
Imported Low Sulfur Diesel-Step 1
Imported Low Sulfur Diesel-Step 2
Imported Low Sulfur Diesel-Step 3
Imported Ultra-low Sulfur Diesel-Step 1
Imported Ultra-low Sulfur Diesel-Step 2
Imported Ultra-low Sulfur Diesel-Step 3
Imported Petroleum Feedstocks-Step 1
Imported Petroleum Feedstocks-Step 2
Imported Petroleum Feedstocks-Step 3
Imported Reform, and Conventional Gasoline-Step 1
Imported Reform, and Conventional Gasoline-Step 2
Imported Reform, and Conventional Gasoline-Step 3
START
year
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1996
1997
1998
1995
1995
1995
1995
197.3
187.8
182.1
477.3
450.3
436.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
419.7
396.2
384.5
763.3
721.9
700.9
COST
95m$/PJ
1995
4.128
2.490
2.694
2.898
3.035
3.273
3.547
3.992
4.270
4.548
1.567
1.701
1.827
1.997
2.155
2.314
1.761
0.000
0.000
2000
4.758
2.944
3.157
3.429
3.769
4.032
4.292
4.410
4.715
5.022
1.889
2.063
2.206
2.340
2.526
2.706
3.337
0.000
0.000
2005
312.1
295.1
286.5
198.3
198.3
281.3
63.6
68.8
72.4
436.5
412.7
402.8
659.2
623.7
808.5
2005
5.000
3.335
3.554
3.818
4.281
4.571
4.836
4.843
5.155
5.489
2.189
2.375
2.537
2.654
2.839
3.017
2.270
0.000
0.000
2010
464.6
438.9
425.9
585.7
554.1
581.3
62.6
68.5
72.0
515.9
494.3
477.6
906.7
877.7
1003.4
2010
5.086
3.393
3.675
3.917
4.249
4.663
4.894
5.000
5.330
5.716
2.216
2.425
2.594
2.716
2.914
3.120
2.372
2.465
2.609
2015
700.8
661.8
641.8
1811.8
1707.9
1656.7
64.5
69.9
74.4
749.3
716.6
691.3
1386.8
1328.0
1315.2
2015 2020 2025
5
3
3
207
475
752
4.072
4.315
4.817
5
5
5
5
2
2
2
2
3
3
2
2
2
020
175
547
935
310
473
708
809
000
214
549
651
812
2020
953.9
900.8
873.6
2523.3
2378.5
2307.3
63.6
68.9
73.3
1030.2
985.1
950.4
1907.5
1826.6
1809.1
5.340 5.490
3.567 3.650
3.851 3.941
4.180 4.278
4.394 4.470
4.904 4.989
5.111 5.199
5.346 5.529
5.731 5.927
6.132 6.341
2.387 2.484
2.555 2.660
2.797 2.912
2.877 2.946
3.074 3.147
3.293 3.371
2.668 2.898
2.880 3.128
3.125 3.395
2025
1272.5
1201.7
1165.4
3455.2
3257.0
3159.5
62.7
67.8
72.2
1406.8
1345.2
1297.8
2688.9
2574.9
2550.2
2030
5.643
3.731
4.028
4.373
4.553
5.082
5.296
5.716
6.128
6.557
2.584
2.767
3.029
3.016
3.222
3.451
3.148
3.398
3.688
2030
1696.5
1602.1
1553.7
4751 .8
4479.1
4345.0
61.5
66.6
70.9
1914.8
1831.0
1766.4
3783.1
3622.6
3588.0
2035
5.800
3.814
4.118
4.470
4.638
5.177
5.395
5.911
6.336
6.779
2.687
2.878
3.150
3.087
3.298
3.533
3.420
3.691
4.006
2035
2261 .7
2135.9
2071 .3
6534.8
6159.9
5975.4
60.4
65.4
69.7
2606.2
2492.2
2404.2
5322.5
5096.8
5048.2
continued
-------
BOUND(BD)Or
1995
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
IMPJTF1
IMPJTF2
IMPJTF3
IMPKER1
IMPKER2
IMPKER3
IMPLPG1
IMPLPG2
IMPLPG3
IMPMETH1
IMPMETH2
IMPMETH3
IMPDSHH1
IMPDSHH2
IMPDSHH3
IMPDSHL1
IMPDSHL2
IMPDSHL3
IMPNGA1
IMPNGA2
IMPNGA3
Imported Jet Fuel-Step 1
Imported Jet Fuel-Step 2
Imported Jet Fuel-Step 3
Imported Kerosene and Other Refined Prod.— Step 1
Imported Kerosene and Other Refined Prod.— Step 2
Imported Kerosene and Other Refined Prod. -Step 3
Imported Liquified Petroleum Gas-Step 1
Imported Liquified Petroleum Gas-Step 2
Imported Liquified Petroleum Gas-Step 3
Imported Methanol-Step 1
Imported Methanol-Step 2
Imported Methanol-Step 3
Imported High Sulfur Fuel Oil-Step 1
Imported High Sulfur Fuel Oil-Step 2
Imported High Sulfur Fuel Oil-Step 3
Imported Low Sulfur Fuel Oil-Step 1
Imported Low Sulfur Fuel Oil-Step 2
Imported Low Sulfur Fuel Oil-Step 3
Imported Natural Gas- Stepl
Imported Natural Gas- Step2
Imported Natural Gas- StepS
179,
171
166
65
63
62
129,
123
120,
51
50,
49,
433
409,
397
360
341
331
2977,
0,
0,
.6
.1
.4
.3
.8
.2
.7
.9
.6
.4
.4
.4
.7
.6
.2
.8
.6
.6
.4
.0
.0
549,
518,
502
95
91
143,
223
212,
206
51
50,
49,
558
531
522
478,
452,
439
5285
0,
0,
.9
.4
.9
.2
.8
.6
.2
.0
.0
.4
.4
.4
.8
.7
.2
.7
.6
.4
.6
.0
.0
800.8
754.1
731.6
139.8
150.9
195.2
286.5
271.6
264.0
51.4
50.4
49.4
564.4
532.3
532.4
643.4
607.6
589.7
5675.9
274.3
474.8
1221.4
1150.7
1116.0
212.4
215.4
206.7
432.3
409.5
397.7
51.4
50.4
49.4
795.8
750.8
728.6
984.4
929.0
901.8
6045.2
327.1
738.5
1711.4
1612.3
1563.7
269.5
273.4
262.4
593.6
562.3
546.1
51.4
50.4
49.4
1118.6
1055.3
1024.1
1340.6
1265.3
1228.1
5992.4
548.6
812.4
2406.4
2267.1
2198.7
357.4
362.5
347.9
811.5
768.7
746.5
51.4
50.4
49.4
1573.4
1484.3
1440.5
1808.0
1706.4
1656.3
6151.1
563.1
833.9
3381.5
3185.6
3089.6
474.2
481.1
461.6
1111.3
1052.7
1022.3
51.4
50.4
49.4
2207.7
2082.8
2021.3
2435.6
2298.6
2231.2
6314.1
578.0
856.0
4751 .6
4476.4
4341 .5
629.2
638.3
612.5
1521.8
1441.6
1400.0
51.4
50.4
49.4
3097.9
2922.6
2836.3
3280.9
3096.4
3005.6
6481 .3
593.4
878.6
ELECTRIC GENERATION
LIFE
AF
AF_TID
Fraction of
Technical Availability unavailability
START
MARKAL
ECOAIGCOO
ECOAIGC05
ECOAIGC10
ECOAPFB
ECOASTMB
ECOASTMS
ECOASTML
ECOACFPOO
Technology Name
Integrated Coal Gasif. Combined Cycle - 2000
Integrated Coal Gasif. Combined Cycle - 2005
Integrated Coal Gasif. Combined Cycle - 2010
Pressurized Fluidized Bed
Existing Bituminous Coal Steam
Existing Sub-Bituminous Coal Steam
Existing Lignite Steam
Pulverized Coal - 2000
year
2000
2005
2010
2010
1995
1995
1995
2000
HEAT RATE
VAROM
FIXOM Lifetime
Btu/kwh 95mills/kwh 95$/KW years
7969
7469
6968
9228
11990
11990
11990
9419
0.73
0.73
0.73
3.10
2.78
2.78
2.78
3.10
29.98 30
29.98 30
29.98 30
38.11 40
14.21 40
14.21 40
14.21 40
21 .48 40
Fraction
dec
fraction
0.85
0.85
0.85
0.85
0.85
0.85
0.85
0.85
that
dec
is forced
fraction
0.37
0.37
0.37
0.50
0.37
0.37
0.37
0.37
PEAK(CON)
Fraction of
capacity for
peak and
reserve
dec fraction
0.90
0.90
0.90
0.80
0.96
0.96
0.96
0.96
continued
-------
MARKAL
ECOACFP05
ECOACFP10
ECOACFPR
ENGADGB05
ENGADGB10
ENGADGP
ESOLPVR
EWINLWT
ECOAMCFC
ENGAFC
EMTHFC
ENGAGCE
ENGAGCOO
ENGAGC05
ENGAGC10
ENGAAGC05
-0 ENGAAGC10
ENGASTM
ENGACTE
ENGACTOO
ENGACT05
ENGACT10
ENGAACT05
ENGAACT10
ENUCCONV
ENUCADV
EDSLICE
EDSHSTM
EDSLCT
EHYDROPS
EBIOCC
EGEOBCFS
EHYDRO
EBMSWLG
ESOLCT
ESOLCPV
EWINCELC
Technology Name
Pulverized Coal - 2005
Pulverized Coal - 2010
Repowered Existing Coal Powered Facilities
Distributed Generation-Base-2005
Distributed Generation-Base-201 0
Distributed Generation-Peak
Photovolataic— Residential
Local Wind Turbine
Coal Gasification Molten Carb Fuel Cell
Gas Fuel Cell
Methanol Fuel Cell
Existing Natural Gas Combined Cycle
Natural Gas Combined Cycle-2000
Natural Gas Combined Cycle-2005
Natural Gas Combined Cycle-2010
Natural Gas Advanced Combined Cycle-2005
Natural Gas Advanced Combined Cycle-2010
Natural Gas Steam
Existing Natural Gas Combustion Turbine
Natural Gas Combustion Turbine-2000
Natural Gas Combustion Turbine-2005
Natural Gas Combustion Turbine-2010
Natural Gas Advanced Combustion Turbine-2005
Natural Gas Advanced Combustion Turbine-2010
Conventional Nuclear
Advanced Nuclear
Diesel internal combustion engine
Residual Fuel Oil Steam
Distillate Oil Combustion Turbine
Hydroelectric Pumped Storage
Biomass Gasification Combined Cycle
Geothermal Binary Cycle and Flashed Steam
Hydroelectric
Municipal Solid Waste-Landfill Gas
Solar Central Thermal
Central Photovoltaic
Wind Central Electric
START
year
2005
2010
2000
2005
2010
2005
1995
1995
2005
2005
2000
1995
2000
2005
2010
2005
2010
1995
1995
2000
2005
2010
2005
2010
1995
2005
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
HEAT
RATE VAROM
Btu/kwh 95mills/kwh
9253
9087
11990
10991
9210
10620
10280
10263
7575
5744
8530
8030
7687
7343
7000
6639
6350
9500
11900
11467
11033
10600
8567
8000
10800
10400
13648
9500
11900
10280
8911
32173
10280
13648
10280
10280
10280
3.10
3.10
3.10
13.87
13.87
21.20
0.00
7.45
24.83
1.91
12.00
0.48
0.48
0.48
0.48
0.48
0.48
0.48
0.09
0.09
0.09
0.09
0.09
0.09
0.29
0.39
8.07
0.48
0.09
2.40
2.66
0.00
4.07
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
LIFE AF
Technical Availability
FIXOM Lifetime Fraction
95$/KW years dec fraction
21.48
21.48
32.73
3.69
3.69
11.53
118.28
8.51
34.49
13.75
8.39
14.31
14.33
14.33
14.33
13.27
13.27
28.61
5.91
5.92
5.92
5.92
8.41
8.41
77.05
52.52
0.78
28.61
5.91
15.18
41.25
64.31
12.90
88.39
43.93
9.04
23.44
40
40
30
30
30
30
20
20
30
20
20
30
30
30
30
30
30
40
30
30
30
30
30
30
40
40
20
40
30
50
30
30
60
30
30
30
30
0.85
0.85
0.85
0.84
0.84
0.84
see Timeslice
see Timeslice
0.87
0.87
0.87
0.91
0.91
0.91
0.91
0.91
0.91
0.85
0.92
0.92
0.92
0.92
0.92
0.92
0.80
0.85
0.84
0.85
0.92
see Timeslice
0.80
0.64
0.44
see Timeslice
see Timeslice
see Timeslice
see Timeslice
AF_TID PEAK(CON)
Fraction of Fraction of
unavailability capacity for
peak and
that is forced reserve
dec fraction dec fraction
0.37
0.37
0.37
0.63
0.63
0.63
see Timeslice
see Timeslice
0.80
0.80
0.80
0.57
0.57
0.57
0.57
0.57
0.57
0.37
0.47
0.47
0.47
0.47
0.47
0.47
0.42
0.38
0.63
0.37
0.47
1.00
0.80
1.00
0.10
see Timeslice
see Timeslice
see Timeslice
see Timeslice
0.96
0.96
0.87
0.96
0.96
0.96
0.30
0.30
0.60
0.60
0.60
1.00
0.94
0.94
0.94
0.86
0.86
0.96
0.96
0.96
0.96
0.96
0.94
0.94
0.85
0.85
0.96
0.98
0.96
0.95
0.84
0.63
0.94
0.90
0.30
0.50
0.30
-------
VO
oo
MARKAL
ECOAIGCOO
ECOAIGC05
ECOAIGC10
ECOAPFB
ECOASTMB
ECOASTMS
ECOASTML
ECOACFPOO
ECOACFP05
ECOACFP10
ECOACFPR
ENGADGB05
ENGADGB10
ENGADGP
ESOLPVR
EWINLWT
ECOAMCFC
ENGAFC
EMTHFC
ENGAGCE
ENGAGCOO
ENGAGC05
ENGAGC10
ENGAAGC05
ENGAAGC10
ENGASTM
ENGACTE
ENGACTOO
ENGACT05
ENGACT10
ENGAACT05
ENGAACT10
ENUCCONV
ENUCADV
EDSLICE
EDSHSTM
EDSLCT
EHYDROPS
EBIOCC
Technology Name
Integrated Coal Gasif. Combined Cycle - 2000
Integrated Coal Gasif. Combined Cycle - 2005
Integrated Coal Gasif. Combined Cycle - 2010
Pressurized Fluidized Bed
Existing Bituminous Coal Steam
Existing Sub-Bituminous Coal Steam
Existing Lignite Steam
Pulverized Coal - 2000
Pulverized Coal - 2005
Pulverized Coal -2010
Repowered Existing Coal Powered Facilities
Distributed Generation-Base-2005
Distributed Generation-Base-201 0
Distributed Generation-Peak
Photovolataic-Residential
Local Wind Turbine
Coal Gasification Molten Carb Fuel Cell
Gas Fuel Cell
Methanol Fuel Cell
Existing Natural Gas Combined Cycle
Natural Gas Combined Cycle-2000
Natural Gas Combined Cycle-2005
Natural Gas Combined Cycle-2010
Natural Gas Advanced Combined Cycle-2005
Natural Gas Advanced Combined Cycle-2010
Natural Gas Steam
Existing Natural Gas Combustion Turbine
Natural Gas Combustion Turbine-2000
Natural Gas Combustion Turbine-2005
Natural Gas Combustion Turbine-2010
Natural Gas Advanced Combustion Turbine-2005
Natural Gas Advanced Combustion Turbine-2010
Conventional Nuclear
Advanced Nuclear
Diesel internal combustion engine
Residual Fuel Oil Steam
Distillate Oil Combustion Turbine
Hydroelectric Pumped Storage
Biomass Gasification Combined Cycle
95$/KW
2000
1338
0
0
1570
1710
1761
1572
1119
0
0
510
0
0
0
7519
1246
2683
2091
1290
434
456
0
0
0
0
959
322
339
0
0
0
0
3445
2144
376
959
322
1615
1725
CAPITAL COST
95$/KW 95$/KW
2005 2010
0
1315
0
1570
1710
1761
1572
0
1110
0
510
623
0
559
6380
1246
2683
2091
1290
434
0
453
0
572
0
959
322
0
336
0
446
0
3445
2144
376
959
322
1615
1556
0
0
1287
1570
1710
1761
1572
0
0
1083
510
0
623
559
5240
1246
2683
2091
1290
434
0
0
448
0
526
959
322
0
0
333
0
384
3445
2144
376
959
322
1615
1424
95$/KW 95$/KW
2015 2020
0
0
1260
1570
1710
1761
1572
0
0
1068
510
0
623
559
3891
1246
2683
2091
1290
434
0
0
443
0
505
959
322
0
0
329
0
365
3445
2144
376
959
322
1615
1376
continued
0
0
1221
1570
1710
1761
1572
0
0
1056
510
0
623
559
3891
1246
2683
2091
1290
434
0
0
438
0
493
959
322
0
0
326
0
362
3445
2144
376
959
322
1615
1303
-------
VO
VO
MARKAL Technology Name
EGEOBCFS Geothermal Binary Cycle and Flashed Steam
EHYDRO Hydroelectric
EBMSWLG Municipal Solid Waste-Landfill Gas
ESOLCT Solar Central Thermal
ESOLCPV Central Photovoltaic
EWINCELC Wind Central Electric
CAPITAL COST
95$/KW 95$/KW 95$/KW 95$/KW 95$/KW
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
1746 1695 1586
929 929 929
1429 1417 1402
2539 2454 2348
3830 2722 2404
982 921 907
*A capital cost of zero indicates that the technology is not available for purchase in that model year.
COMMERCIAL SECTOR
INVCOST FIXOM
MARKAL
CC01
CC02
CC03
CC04
CC05
CC06
CC07
CC08
CC09
CC10
CC11
CC12
CC13
CC14
CC15
CC16
CC17
CC18
CC19
CC20
CC21
CC22
CC23
Technology Name
Air Source heat pump for cooling - Installed base
Air Source heat pump for cooling - current standard
Air Source heat pump for cooling - 2000 typical
Air Source heat pump for cooling - 2000 high
Air Source heat pump for cooling - 2005 typical
Air Source heat pump for cooling - 2005 high
Air Source heat pump for cooling - 201 0 typical
Air Source heat pump for cooling - 201 0 high
Air Source heat pump for cooling - 2020 typical
Air Source heat pump for cooling - 2020 high
Ground Source HP for cooling - installed base
Ground Source heat pump for cooling -2000 typical
Ground Source heat pump for cooling - 2000 high
Ground Source heat pump for cooling - 2005 typical
Ground Source heat pump for cooling - 2005 high
Ground Source heat pump for cooling - 201 0 typical
Ground Source heat pump for cooling - 2010 high
Ground Source heat pump for cooling - 2020 typical
Ground Source heat pump for cooling - 2020 high
Elec. reciprocating chiller-Installed base-stnd
Electric reciprocating chiller - 2000 typical
Electric reciprocating chiller - 2000 high
Electric reciprocating chiller - 2005 typical
START
year
1995
1995
2000
2000
2005
2005
2010
2010
2020
2020
1995
2000
2000
2005
2005
2010
2010
2020
2020
1995
2000
2000
2005
2001$/1000Btu/hr
CV:/1000cfm
CL: /lOOOIumen
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
51.04
51.04
61.04
51.04
2001$/1000Btu/hr
CV:/1000cfm
CL: /lOOOIumen
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.75
2.75
2.75
2.75
1 680 2026
929 929
1387 1373
2243 21 37
2293 2219
876 826
EFFICIENCY
Btu/Btu
CV: 1000cfm hrs/1000Btu
CL: lumens/watt
2.78
2.93
2.93
4.40
3.52
5.28
3.52
5.28
3.81
5.28
3.96
3.96
6.15
3.96
6.15
3.96
6.15
4.40
6.15
2.50
2.86
3.50
2.86
LIFE
years
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
24
24
24
24
continued
-------
MARKAL
CC24
CC25
CC26
CC27
CC28
CC29
CC30
CC31
CC32
CC33
CC34
CC35
CC36
CC37
CC38
CC39
CC40
^ CC41
o
0 CC42
CC43
CC44
CC45
CC46
CC47
CC48
CC49
CC50
CC51
CC52
CC53
CC54
CC55
CC56
CC57
CC58
CC59
CC60
CC61
Technology Name
Electric reciprocating chiller - 2005 high
Electric reciprocating chiller - 201 0 typical
Electric reciprocating chiller- 2010 high
Electric reciprocating chiller - 2020 typical
Electric reciprocating chiller - 2020 high
Electric centrifugal chillers - Installed base
Electric centrifugal chillers - Current standard
Electric centrifugal chillers - 2000 typical
Electric centrifugal chillers - 2000 high
Electric centrifugal chillers - 2005 typical
Electric centrifugal chillers - 2005 high
Electric centrifugal chillers - 2010 typical
Electric centrifugal chillers - 2010 high
Electric centrifugal chillers - 2020 typical
Electric centrifugal chillers - 2020 high
Elec. rooftop AC - Installed base
Elec. rooftop AC - 2000 typical - standard
Electric rooftop air conditioner - 2000 high
Electric rooftop air conditioner - 2005 typical
Electric rooftop air conditioner - 2005 high
Electric rooftop air conditioner - 201 0 typical
Electric rooftop air conditioner - 201 0 high
Electric rooftop air conditioner - 2020 typical
Electric rooftop air conditioner - 2020 high
Wall/Window - Room A/C - Installed base
Wall/Window - Room A/C - 2000 Low
Wall/Window - Room A/C - 2000 typical
Wall/Window - Room A/C - 2000 high Efficiency
Wall/Window - Room A/C - 2005 Typical
Wall/Window - Room A/C - 2005 High Efficiency
Wall/Window - Room A/C - 2020 Typical
Central A/C - Res. type - Installed base
Central A/C - Res. type - Current standard
Central A/C - Res. type - 2000 typical
Central A/C - Res. type - 2000 high Efficiency
Central A/C - Res. type - 2005 Typical
Central A/C - Res. type - 2005 High
Central A/C - Res. type - 2010 Typical
START
year
2005
2010
2010
2020
2020
1995
1995
2000
2000
2005
2005
2010
2010
2020
2020
1995
1995
2000
2005
2005
2010
2010
2020
2020
1995
1995
2000
2000
2005
2005
2020
1995
1995
2000
2000
2005
2005
2010
INVCOST
2001$/1000Btu/hr
CV:/1000cfm
CL: /lOOOIumen
61.04
51.04
61.04
51.04
61.04
39.58
39.58
39.58
52.92
43.75
56.25
43.75
56.25
43.75
47.92
83.33
83.33
161.11
83.33
161.11
94.44
161.11
94.44
161.11
47.14
47.14
50.43
72.38
50.43
72.38
58.33
49.52
49.52
49.52
83.33
54.76
83.33
54.76
FIXOM
2001$/1000Btu/hr
CV:/1000cfm
CL: /lOOOIumen
2.75
2.75
2.75
2.75
2.75
1.88
1.88
1.88
1.88
1.88
1.88
1.88
1.88
1.88
1.88
1.39
1.39
1.39
1.39
1.39
1.39
1.39
1.39
1.39
0.95
0.95
0.95
0.95
0.95
0.95
0.95
2.86
2.86
2.86
2.86
2.86
2.86
2.86
EFFICIENCY
Btu/Btu
CV: 1000cfm hrs/1000Btu
CL: lumens/watt
3.60
2.86
3.60
2.90
3.80
4.60
4.80
5.90
7.30
6.40
7.30
6.40
7.30
7.00
7.30
2.60
2.60
4.30
2.60
4.40
3.00
4.40
3.00
4.40
2.40
2.64
2.93
3.37
2.93
3.52
3.22
2.81
2.93
2.93
5.28
3.52
5.28
3.52
LIFE
years
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
continued
-------
MARKAL
CC62
CC63
CC64
CC65
CC66
CC67
CC68
CC69
CC70
CC71
CC72
CC73
CC74
CC75
CC76
CC77
CC78
CC79
CC80
CK01
CK02
CK03
CK04
CH01
CH02
CH03
CH04
CH05
CH06
CH07
CH08
CH09
CH10
CH11
CH12
CH13
CH14
CH15
Technology Name
Central A/C - Res. type - 2010 High
Central A/C - Res. type - 2020 Typical
Central A/C - Res. type - 2020 High
Gas heat pump for cooling - 1995 engine driven
Gas heat pump for cooling - 2005 absorption
Gas engine rooftop AC - installed base
Gas engine rooftop AC - 2000 typical
Gas engine rooftop AC - 2000 high
Gas engine rooftop AC - 2005 typical
Gas engine rooftop AC - 2005 high
Gas engine rooftop AC - 201 0 typical
Gas engine rooftop AC - 201 0 high
Gas-fired chiller- Installed base
Gas-fired chiller - 2000 absorption
Gas-fired chiller - 2000 engine driven
Gas-fired chiller - 2005 absorption
Gas-fired chiller - 2005 engine driven
Gas-fired chiller - 2020 absorption
Gas-fired chiller - 2020 engine driven
Range, Electric, 4 burner, oven, 11" griddle
Range, Electric-induction, 4 burner, oven, 11" gri
Range, Gas, 4 burner, oven, 1 1" griddle
Range, Gas, 4 powered burners, convect. oven, 1 1"
Air Source heat pump for heating - Installed Base
Air Source heat pump for heating - current standard
Air Source heat pump for heating - 2000 typical
Air Source heat pump for heating - 2000 high
Air Source heat pump for heating - 2005 typical
Air Source heat pump for heating - 2005 high
Air Source heat pump for heating - 201 0 typical
Air Source heat pump for heating - 201 0 high
Air Source heat pump for heating - 2020 typical
Air Source heat pump for heating - 2020 high
Ground Source HP for heating - Installed Base
Ground Source heat pump for heating -2000 typical
Ground Source heat pump for heating - 2000 high
Ground Source heat pump for heating - 2005 typical
Ground Source heat pump for heating - 2005 high
START
year
2010
2020
2020
1995
2005
1995
2000
2000
2005
2005
2010
2010
1995
1995
2000
2005
2005
2020
2020
1995
2000
1995
1995
1995
1995
2000
2000
2005
2005
2010
2010
2020
2020
1995
2000
2000
2005
2005
INVCOST
2001$/1000Btu/hr
CV:/1000cfm
CL: /lOOOIumen
83.33
54.76
83.33
243.19
173.61
104.17
104.17
150.00
104.17
141.67
104.17
141.67
52.08
78.75
69.38
78.75
66.67
78.75
66.67
35.21
41.17
25.26
34.41
81.39
81.39
97.92
155.56
97.22
155.56
97.22
155.56
97.22
150.00
187.50
187.50
229.17
166.67
229.17
FIXOM
2001$/1000Btu/hr
CV:/1000cfm
CL: /lOOOIumen
2.86
2.86
2.86
4.98
4.17
4.58
4.58
4.58
4.58
4.58
4.58
4.58
0.63
1.33
2.50
1.33
2.50
1.33
2.50
0.29
0.29
0.29
0.29
3.33
3.33
3.33
3.33
3.33
3.33
3.33
3.33
3.33
3.33
1.46
1.46
1.46
1.46
1.46
EFFICIENCY
Btu/Btu
CV:1000cfmhrs/1000btu
CL: lumens/watt
5.28
3.81
5.28
7.57
0.70
0.59
0.70
1.30
0.70
1.30
0.70
1.30
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.10
1.00
2.20
0.70
0.80
0.45
0.60
1.88
1.99
2.20
2.87
2.20
2.89
2.20
2.87
2.29
2.93
3.40
3.40
4.00
3.40
4.30
LIFE
years
14
14
14
13
15
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
20
20
25
20
25
20
25
10
10
10
10
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
20
20
20
20
20
continued
-------
MARKAL
CH16
CH17
CH18
CH19
CH20
CH21
CH22
CH23
CH24
CH25
CH26
CH27
CH28
CH29
CH30
CH31
CH32
CH33
CH34
CH35
CH36
CH37
CH38
CH39
CH40
CH41
CH42
CH43
CH44
CH45
CH46
CH47
CH48
CH49
CH50
CW01
CW02
CW03
CW04
Technology Name
Ground Source heat pump for heating - 2010 typical
Ground Source heat pump for heating - 2010 high
Ground Source heat pump for heating - 2020 typical
Ground Source heat pump for heating - 2020 high
Electric boiler - Installed Base
Other electric packaged spc heat
Other electric packaged spc heat - new
Gas heat pump for heating - 1995 engine driven
Gas heat pump for heating - 2005 absorption
Gas heat pump for heating - 2020 absorption
Gas furnace - Installed Base
Gas furnace - current standard
Gas furnace - 2000 high
Gas furnace - 2003 standard
Gas furnace - 2005 high
Gas furnace - 2010 typical
Gas furnace -2010 high
Gas boiler - Installed Base
Gas boiler - Current standard
Gas boiler- 2000 high
Gas boiler - 2005 typical
Gas boiler- 2005 high
Gas boiler - 201 0 typical
Gas boiler -2010 high
Oil furnace - Installed Base
Oil furnace - Current standard
Oil furnace - 1998 intro
Oil furnace - 2000 intro
Oil furnace - Meets 2003 standard
Oil furnace -2010 intro
Oil boiler- Installed base
Oil boiler - 2000 typical and stnd
Oil boiler -2000 high
Oil boiler - 2005 typical
Oil boiler -2005 high
Res. style solar water heater - 1 995
Heat pump water heater - 2000 typical
Heat pump water heater - 2000 high
Heat pump water heater - 2005 typical
START
year
2010
2010
2020
2020
1995
1995
1995
1995
2005
2020
1995
1995
2000
2005
2005
2010
2010
1995
1995
2000
2005
2005
2010
2010
1995
1995
2000
2000
2005
2010
1995
1995
2000
2005
2005
1995
1995
2000
2005
INVCOST
2001$/1000Btu/hr
CV:/1000cfm
CL:/1000lumen
166.67
208.33
166.67
197.92
21.83
19.77
14.92
243.19
173.61
173.61
9.76
9.11
14.82
8.81
14.16
8.70
14.16
19.40
18.11
33.82
17.87
31.68
17.87
31.68
14.25
14.25
23.46
23.75
14.25
22.69
16.84
15.76
18.83
15.76
18.83
270.98
200.00
300.00
200.00
FIXOM
2001$/1000Btu/hr
CV:/1000cfm
CL:/1000lumen
1.46
1.46
1.46
1.46
0.14
3.49
3.49
4.98
4.17
4.17
1.07
1.00
0.88
0.97
0.84
0.96
0.84
0.59
0.55
0.69
0.55
0.67
0.55
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.14
0.13
0.12
0.13
0.12
1.96
10.71
10.71
10.71
EFFICIENCY
Btu/Btu
CV: 1000cfm hrs/1000btu
CL: lumens/watt
3.40
4.30
3.80
4.50
0.94
0.93
0.96
4.10
1.40
1.50
0.70
0.75
0.86
0.78
0.90
0.79
0.90
0.70
0.75
0.82
0.76
0.85
0.76
0.85
0.70
0.76
0.77
0.82
0.79
0.85
0.73
0.78
0.83
0.78
0.83
2.08
2.00
2.50
2.00
LIFE
years
20
20
20
20
21
18
18
13
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
15
15
15
15
15
15
20
20
20
20
20
20
12
12
12
continued
-------
MARKAL Technology Name
CW05
CW06
CW07
CW08
CW09
CW10
CW11
CW12
CW13
CW14
CW15
CW16
CW17
CW18
CW19
CW20
CW21
i— CW22
S CL01
CL02
CL03
CL04
CL05
CL06
CL07
CL08
CL09
CL10
CL11
CL12
CL13
CL14
CL15
CL16
CL17
CL18
CL19
CL20
Heat pump water heater - 2005 high
Heat pump water heater - 201 0 typical
Heat pump water heater - 2020 typical
Elec. resistance water heater - Installed base
Elec. resistance water heater - typical-standard
Elec. resistance water heater - typical-standard
Gas water heater - Installed base
Gas water heater - Current standard
Gas water heater - 2000 typical
Gas water heater - 2000 high
Gas water heater - 2005 typical
Gas water heater - 2005 high
Gas water heater - 201 0 typical
Gas water heater - 201 0 high
Gas water heater - 2020 typical
Gas water heater - 2020 high
Oil water heater - installed base
Oil water heater - current high effic
Incandescent 1 150 lumens, 75 watts
CFL-low end 1200 lumens 20 watts
CFL 1200 lumens, 20 watts
Halogen 1280 lumens, 90 watts
Halogen IR 60 Watt
Hafnium carbide filament 1550 lumens, 23 watts
Coated filament 1 1 50 lumens, 24 watts
F40T12 - Standard Magnetic
F40T12 - Efficient Magnetic
F40T12 - Efficient Magnetic ES
Halogen 4024 Lumens 209 Watts
F40T1 2- Electronic ES
F32T8 - Magnetic
F32T8 - Electronic
F32T8 -Electronic -Controls
F32T8 -Electronic -Reflector
Scotopic Lighting
Electrodeless Lamp
F96T12 - Standard Magnetic
F96T12 - Efficient Magnetic
START
year
2005
2010
2020
1995
1995
2005
1995
1995
2000
2000
2005
2005
2010
2010
2020
2020
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
2005
2010
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
2015
1995
1995
INVCOST
2001$/1000Btu/hr
CV:/1000cfm
CL: /lOOOIumen
189.29
200.00
167.86
13.71
13.43
20.81
14.86
15.13
14.74
22.58
14.74
21.51
14.74
21.51
14.74
21.51
25.67
39.38
53.26
60.87
61.46
56.82
69.03
65.07
65.07
27.69
18.95
24.93
11.89
27.36
21.86
25.59
37.92
26.96
38.99
29.72
15.89
12.25
FIXOM
2001$/1000Btu/hr
CV:/1000cfm
CL: /lOOOIumen
10.71
10.71
10.71
0.34
0.34
0.34
1.01
0.99
0.96
0.54
0.96
0.54
0.96
0.54
0.96
0.54
0.51
0.79
30.65
7.92
7.22
6.94
18.74
2.53
2.53
0.73
0.56
0.79
3.50
0.74
0.74
0.80
0.80
0.69
0.90
0.41
0.91
0.45
EFFICIENCY
Btu/Btu
CV: 1 0OOcfm hrs/1 OOObtu LIFE
CL: lumens/watt years
2.60
2.00
2.20
0.95
0.97
0.97
0.74
0.76
0.78
0.93
0.78
0.93
0.78
0.93
0.78
0.93
0.73
0.78
15.30
59.50
67.10
14.20
19.20
30.30
47.90
49.20
59.00
55.70
20.00
65.30
65.50
76.80
109.70
88.30
123.00
152.80
55.00
66.70
12
12
12
14
14
14
12
12
12
20
12
20
12
20
12
20
15
15
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
14
14
14
12
14
14
14
14
14
14
20
14
14
continued
-------
MARKAL
CL21
CL22
CL23
CL24
CL25
CL26
CL27
CL28
CL29
CL30
CL31
CL32
CL33
CL34
CL35
CR01
CR02
CR03
CR04
CR05
CR06
CR07
CR08
CR09
CR10
CR11
CR12
CR13
CR14
CR15
CR16
CR17
CR18
CR19
CR20
CR21
CR22
CR23
CR24
Technology Name
F96T12 - Efficient Magnetic ES
F96T1 2 -Electronic
F96T1 2- Electronic ES
F96T12 - Standard Magnetic HO
F96T12 - Efficient Magnetic HO/ES
F96T1 2 -Electronic HO
F96T1 2 -Electronic HO ES
Scotopic Lamp
Electrodeless Lamp
Mercury Vapor
Metal Halide
High Pressure Sodium
Sulfur Lamp
F40T12 - Efficient Magnetic ES
F32T8 - Magnetic
Centralized Refrig. Base System
Centrl Rfg Sys w/Evaporative Condenser
Centrl Rfg Sys w/Floating Head Pressure
Centrl Rfg Sys w/Ambient Subcooling
Centrl Rfg Sys w/Mechanical Subcooling
Centrl Rfg Sys w/Hot Gas Defrost
Centrl Rfg Sys w/Antisweat Htr Controls
Centrl Rfg Sys w/Hi-Eff Lighting
Centrl Rfg Sys w/Hi-Eff Fan Blades
Centrl Rfg Sys w/PSC Evap Fan Motors
Centrl Rfg Sys w/ECM Evap Fan Motors
Walk-In Cooler-Installed Base
Walk-In Cooler w/Floating Head Pressure
Walk-In Cooler w/Ambient Subcooling
Walk-In Cooler w/Antisweat Heat Controls
Walk-In Cooler w/Evap Fan Shutdown
Walk-In Cooler w/PSC Evap Fan Motor
Walk-In Cooler w/ECM Evap Fan Motor
Walk-In Cooler w/ECM Condns Fan Motor
Walk-In Cooler w/Elec. Ballasts
Walk-In Cooler w/High-Eff. Fan Blades
Walk-In Cooler w/FHP.ECM Fans, Shutdown & Ambnt
Walk-In Freezer-Installed Base
Walk-In Fzr w/Hot Gas Defrost
START
year
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
2015
1995
1995
1995
2005
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
2005
1995
2005
1995
1995
1995
1995
2005
2005
1995
1995
2010
1995
1995
INVCOST
2001$/1000Btu/hr
CV:/1000cfm
CL:/1000lumen
14.87
15.50
17.23
13.71
13.31
13.33
14.93
40.61
31.43
33.81
16.98
19.63
15.84
24.93
21.86
909.63
916.09
916.91
915.18
916.91
913.08
916.46
913.14
909.89
916.54
921.09
729.54
734.23
743.70
743.03
732.24
733.85
739.03
731.15
731 .69
732.78
759.50
2399.11
2419.44
FIXOM
2001$/1000Btu/hr
CV:/1000cfm
CL:/1000lumen
0.57
0.49
0.57
0.86
0.72
0.50
0.74
0.86
1.19
0.82
0.40
0.56
0.29
0.74
0.74
30.70
33.98
30.70
30.70
30.70
35.25
30.70
30.70
30.70
30.70
30.70
6.42
6.42
6.42
6.42
6.42
6.42
6.42
6.42
6.42
6.42
6.42
21.19
21.19
EFFICIENCY
Btu/Btu
CV: 1000cfm hrs/1000btu
CL: lumens/watt
70.60
73.90
81.80
49.00
61.20
67.30
69.40
123.00
152.80
40.20
69.60
89.70
100.00
55.70
65.50
1.82
1.88
1.88
1.83
1.85
1.88
1.90
1.86
1.88
1.95
1.99
2.46
3.01
2.70
2.52
2.57
2.59
2.68
2.51
2.48
2.62
3.59
0.73
0.76
LIFE
years
14
14
14
12
12
12
12
12
20
15
15
15
15
14
14
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
continued
-------
MARKAL
CR25
CR26
CR27
CR28
CR29
CR30
CR31
CR32
CR33
CR34
CR35
CR36
CR37
CR38
CR39
CR40
CR41
CR42
CR43
CR44
CR45
CR46
CR47
CR48
CR49
CR50
CR51
CR52
CR53
CR54
CR55
CR56
CR57
CR58
CR59
CR60
CR61
CR62
CR63
Technology Name
Walk-In Fzr w/Antisweat Heat Controls
Walk-In Fzrw/Evap Fan Shutdown
Walk-In Fzrw/PSC Evap Fan Motor
Walk-In Fzrw/ECM Evap Fan Motor
Walk-In Fzrw/PSC Condns Fan Motor
Walk-In Fzrw/ECM Condns Fan Motor
Walk-In Fzr w/High-Eff. Fan Blades
Walk-In Fzrw/HER,ECM Fans, Shutdown & HG Dfst
Reach-In Refrig-lnstalled Base
Reach-In Rfg w/Thicker Insulation
Reach-In Rfg w/lmproved Insulation
Reach-In Rfg w/ECM Evap Fan Motor
Reach-In Rfg w/ECM Condns Fan Motor
Reach-In Rfg w/High-Eff. Compressor
Reach-In Rfg w/ECM Compressor Motor
Reach-In Rfg w/High-Eff. Fan Blades
Reach-In Freezer-Installed Base
Reach-In Fzr w/Thicker Insulation
Reach-In Fzr w/lmproved Insulation
Reach-In Fzr w/ECM Evap Fan Motor
Reach-In Fzrw/ECM Condns Fan Motor
Reach-In Fzr w/High-Eff. Compressor
Reach-In Fzr w/ECM Compressor Motor
Reach-In Fzr w/Hot Gas Defrost
Reach-In Fzr w/Liquid-Suction Ht Xchng
Reach-In Fzr w/High-Eff. Fan Blades
Ice Machine-Installed Base
Ice Machine w/Thicker Insulation
Ice Machine w/lmproved Insulation
Ice Machine w/ECM Evap Fan Motor
Ice Machine w/ECM Condns Fan Motor
Ice Machine w/High-Eff. Compressor
Ice Machine w/ECM Compressor Motor
Ice Machine w/High-Eff. Fan Blades
Beverage Merchandiser-Installed Base
Bvg Mrchsrw/PSC Evap Fan Motor
Bvg Mrchsr w/ECM Evap Fan Motor
Bvg Mrchsrw/PSC Condns Fan Motor
Bvg Mrchsr w/ECM Condns Fan Motor
START
year
1995
1995
1995
2005
1995
2005
1995
2005
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
2005
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
2005
2005
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
2005
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
INVCOST
2001$/1000btu/hr
CV: /lOOOcfm
CL:/1000lumen
2522.14
2423.71
2413.87
2423.71
2404.52
2410.92
2407.22
2677.40
3377.97
3513.13
3940.97
3442.83
3407.69
3399.59
3513.09
3382.02
2118.06
2198.99
2719.79
2141.18
2141.18
2141.18
2223.97
2197.98
2190.28
2119.99
2190.44
2241 .98
2221.36
2249.71
2242.37
2319.28
2216.21
2194.31
1 428.74
1502.22
1551.20
1465.48
1489.97
FIXOM
2001$/1000btu/hr
CV: /lOOOcfm
CL: /1000lumen
21.19
21.19
21.19
21.19
21.19
21.19
21.19
21.19
8.11
8.11
8.11
8.11
8.11
8.11
8.11
8.11
8.18
8.18
8.18
8.18
8.18
8.18
8.18
8.18
8.18
8.18
128.85
128.85
128.85
128.85
128.85
128.85
128.85
128.85
8.11
8.11
8.11
8.11
8.11
EFFICIENCY
btu/btu
CV:1000cfmhrs/1000btu
CL: lumens/watt
0.78
0.76
0.82
0.85
0.77
0.79
0.77
1.09
0.48
0.49
0.48
0.52
0.50
0.54
0.53
0.50
0.56
0.58
0.57
0.57
0.58
0.67
0.66
0.60
0.58
0.57
0.44
0.46
0.45
0.46
0.45
0.46
0.45
0.44
0.70
0.91
0.98
0.72
0.73
LIFE
years
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
10
10
10
10
10
continued
-------
MARKAL
CR64
CR65
CR66
CR67
CR68
CR69
CR70
CR71
CR72
CR73
CR74
CR75
CR76
CR77
CR78
CR79
CV01
CV02
CV03
CV04
CV05
CV06
CV07
CV08
CV09
CV10
CV11
CV12
CV13
CV14
CV15
CV16
CV17
CV18
CV19
CV20
CV21
CV22
CV23
Technology Name
Bvg Mrchsr w/High-Eff. Compressor
Bvg Mrchsr w/ECM Compressor Motor
Bvg Mrchsr w/Electronic Ballasts
Bvg Mrchsr w/High-Eff. Fan Blades
Bvg Mrchsr w/ECM Evap Fan Motor&Hi-Eff Cmprsr
Refrigerated Vending Machine-Installed Base
Rfg Vend Mach w/Thicker Insulation
Rfg Vend Mach w/PSC Evap Fan Motor
Rfg Vend Mach w/ECM Evap Fan Motor
Rfg Vend Mach w/PSC Condns Fan Motor
Rfg Vend Mach w/ECM Condns Fan Motor
Rfg Vend Mach w/High-Eff. Compressor
Rfg Vend Mach w/ECM Compressor Motor
Rfg Vend Mach w/Electronic Ballasts
Rfg Vend Mach w/High-Eff. Fan Blades
Rfg Vend Mach w/ECM Evap Fan Motor&Hi-Eff Cmprsr
CAV 7000 cfm System - 1 992 Installed Base
CAV 7000 cfm System - 1 995 Typical
CAV 7000 cfm System - 1 995 High
CAV 7000 cfm System - 2000 High
CAV 7000 cfm System - 2005 Typical
CAV 7000 cfm System - 2005 High
CAV 7000 cfm System - 201 0 Typical
CAV 7000 cfm System - 201 0 High
CAV 7000 cfm System - 201 5 Typical
CAV 7000 cfm System - 201 5 High
CAV 15,000 cfm System - 1992 Installed Base
CAV 15,000 cfm System - 1995 Typical
CAV 15,000 cfm System- 1995 High
CAV 1 5,000 cfm System - 2000 Typical
CAV 1 5,000 cfm System - 2000 High
CAV 1 5,000 cfm System - 2005 Typical
CAV 1 5,000 cfm System - 2005 High
CAV 1 5,000 cfm System - 201 0 Typical
CAV 15,000 cfm System - 2010 High
CAV 1 5,000 cfm System - 201 5 Typical
CAV 15,000 cfm System - 2015 High
Multi-Zone - 1992 Installed Base
VAV 30,000 cfm System - 1992 Installed Base
START
year
1995
2005
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
2005
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
2000
2005
2005
2010
2010
2015
2015
1995
1995
1995
2000
2000
2005
2005
2010
2010
2015
2015
1995
1995
INVCOST
2001$/1000Btu/hr
CV:/1000cfm
CL: /lOOOIumen
1445.07
1530.79
1 459.36
1431.80
1567.53
3348.66
3456.58
3419.57
3458.97
3419.57
3458.97
3380.18
3545.64
3407.75
3352.60
3490.49
3068.42
3089.12
3649.49
3672.06
3074.92
3662.32
3061.25
3642.49
3018.52
3584.19
4273.54
4305.53
4688.78
3848.72
4732.50
4345.26
4728.27
4340.62
4716.86
4320.69
4686.86
8300.37
3025.17
FIXOM
2001$/1000Btu/hr
CV:/1000cfm
CL: /lOOOIumen
8.11
8.11
8.11
8.11
8.11
15.63
15.63
15.63
15.63
15.63
15.63
15.63
15.63
15.63
15.63
15.63
47.02
49.06
49.06
53.84
59.16
59.16
64.95
64.95
71.45
71.45
94.46
98.45
98.45
95.80
108.18
118.88
118.84
130.60
130.60
143.51
143.51
19.99
80.38
EFFICIENCY
Btu/Btu
CV:1000cfmhrs/1000btu
CL: lumens/watt
0.77
0.75
0.77
0.75
1.08
0.48
0.51
0.54
0.55
0.49
0.50
0.53
0.51
0.53
0.50
0.65
0.56
0.59
0.61
0.62
0.59
0.63
0.61
0.63
0.61
0.63
0.22
0.25
0.32
0.32
0.33
0.31
0.35
0.32
0.36
0.33
0.36
0.21
0.24
LIFE
years
10
10
10
10
10
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
15
15
20
20
15
20
15
20
15
20
15
15
20
15
20
15
20
15
20
15
20
20
15
continued
-------
MARKAL
CV24
CV25
CV26
CV27
CV28
CV29
CV30
CV31
CV32
CV33
CV34
CV35
CV36
CV37
CV38
CV39
CV40
CV41
CV42
CV43
CV44
CV45
CV46
CV47
CV48
CV49
CV50
CV51
CV52
CV53
Technology Name
VAV 30,000 cfm System - 1995 Typical
VAV 30,000 cfm System - 1995 High
VAV 30,000 cfm System - 2000 Typical
VAV 30,000 cfm System - 2005 Typical
VAV 30,000 cfm System - 2005 High
VAV 30,000 cfm System - 201 0 Typical
VAV 30,000 cfm System - 2010 High
VAV 30,000 cfm System - 201 5 Typical
VAV 30,000 cfm System - 2015 High
Multi-Zone - 1992 Installed Base
VAV 55,000 cfm System - 1992 Installed Base
VAV 55,000 cfm System - 1995 Typical
VAV 55,000 cfm System - 1995 High
VAV 55,000 cfm System - 2000 Typical
VAV 55,000 cfm System - 2005 Typical
VAV 55,000 cfm System - 2005 High
VAV 55,000 cfm System - 201 0 Typical
VAV 55,000 cfm System - 2010 High
VAV 55,000 cfm System - 201 5 Typical
VAV 55,000 cfm System - 2015 High
Fan Coil Unit- 1992 Installed Base
Fan Coil Unit - 1995 Current Standard
Fan Coil Unit- 1995 Typical
Fan Coil Unit -1995 High
Fan Coil Unit - 2005 Typical
Fan Coil Unit -2005 High
Fan Coil Unit - 2010 Typical
Fan Coil Unit -2010 High
Fan Coil Unit - 2015 Typical
Fan Coil Unit -2015 High
START
year
1995
1995
2000
2005
2005
2010
2010
2015
2015
1995
1995
1995
1995
2000
2005
2005
2010
2010
2015
2015
1995
1995
1995
1995
2005
2005
2010
2010
2015
2015
INVCOST
2001$/1000Btu/hr
CV:/1000cfm
CL: /lOOOIumen
3037.66
3611.63
3332.67
3310.89
3522.35
3284.69
3559.87
3243.60
3448.40
8300.37
3641 .55
3663.25
4054.35
3827.41
3830.21
4061 .00
3821.13
4026.37
3788.78
3995.29
5228.23
5295.27
5295.27
6994.52
5282.09
7020.84
5209.09
6916.74
5177.99
6840.16
FIXOM
2001$/1000Btu/hr
CV:/1000cfm
CL: /lOOOIumen
83.81
83.81
92.12
101.16
101.15
111.14
111.13
122.10
122.10
19.99
126.62
132.01
132.01
145.08
159.38
159.38
175.11
175.09
192.37
192.37
198.65
207.04
207.04
207.02
250.11
250.11
275.24
275.24
302.75
302.75
EFFICIENCY
Btu/Btu
CV:1000cfmhrs/1000btu
CL: lumens/watt
0.27
0.50
0.48
0.48
0.50
0.50
0.56
0.50
0.56
0.21
0.26
0.32
0.56
0.54
0.54
0.56
0.55
0.60
0.55
0.67
0.56
0.39
0.77
0.83
0.77
0.91
0.77
0.91
0.83
1.00
LIFE
years
15
20
15
15
20
15
20
15
20
20
15
15
20
15
15
20
15
20
15
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
-------
RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
o
oo
MARKAL
RH01
RH02
RH03
RH04
RH05
RH06
RH07
RH08
RH09
RH10
RH11
RH12
RH13
RH14
RH15
RH16
RH17
RH18
RH19
RH20
RH21
RH22
RH23
RH24
RH25
RH26
RH27
RH28
RH29
RH30
RH31
RH32
RH33
RH34
RH35
RH36
RH37
RH38
RH39
Technology Name
space heating, electric furnace, existing
space heating, electric furnace
space heating, electric heat pump, existing
space heating, electric heat pump #1 - 1995
space heating, electric heat pump #1 - 2010
space heating, electric heat pump #2 - 1995
space heating, electric heat pump #2 - 2010
space heating, electric heat pump #2 - 2020
space heating, electric heat pump #3 - 1995
space heating, electric heat pump #3 - 2020
space heating, electric heat pump #4- 1995
space heating, electric heat pump #4 - 2020
space heating, gas furnace, existing
space heating, gas furnace #1 - 1995
space heating, gas furnace #2 - 1 995
space heating, gas furnace #3 - 1 995
space heating, gas furnace #4 - 1 995
space heating, gas furnace #4 - 2005
space heating, gas furnace #4 - 201 0
space heating, gas furnace #4 - 2020
space heating, gas furnace #5 - 1 995
space heating, gas furnace #5 - 2005
space heating, gas furnace #5 - 201 0
space heating, gas furnace #5 - 2020
space heating, gas radiator #1 - 1995
space heating, gas radiator #2 - 1995
space heating, gas radiator #2 - 201 0
space heating, gas radiator #3 - 1995
space heating, gas radiator #3 - 201 0
space heating, kerosene furnace #1 - 1995
space heating, kerosene furnace #2 - 1995
space heating, kerosene furnace #3 - 1995
space heating, LPG furnace #1 - 1995
space heating, LPG furnace #2 - 1995
space heating, LPG furnace #3 - 1995
space heating, LPG furnace #4 - 1 995
space heating, LPG furnace #4 - 2005
space heating, LPG furnace #4 - 201 0
space heating, LPG furnace #4 - 2020
START
year
1995
1995
1995
1995
2010
1995
2010
2020
1995
2020
1995
2020
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
2005
2010
2020
1995
2005
2010
2020
1995
1995
2010
1995
2010
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
2005
2010
2020
LIFE
years
30
30
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
CF
dec
fraction
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
Capital cost
98$/unit
1351
1351
1963
1963
2345
2362
2580
2600
3057
2982
3752
3618
1200
1200
1300
1400
1900
1800
1700
1600
2700
2200
1950
1700
2480
3065
3065
3650
3650
2052
2661
4217
1200
1300
1400
1900
1800
1700
1600
Efficiency
1
1.99
2.2
2.2
2.38
2.46
2.54
2.61
2.87
2.93
0.78
0.8
0.82
0.92
0.92
0.92
0.92
0.97
0.97
0.97
0.97
0.8
0.87
0.89
0.95
0.97
0.65
0.7
0.8
0.78
0.8
0.82
0.92
0.92
0.92
0.92
continued
-------
o
VO
MARKAL
RH40
RH41
RH42
RH43
RH44
RH45
RH46
RH47
RH48
RH49
RH50
RH51
RH52
RH53
RH54
RH55
RH56
RH57
RH58
RH59
RH60
RH61
RH62
RH63
RC01
RC02
RC03
RC04
RC05
RC06
RC07
RC08
RC09
RC10
RC11
RC12
RC13
RC14
RC15
RC16
Technology Name
space heating, LPG furnace #5 - 1995
space heating, LPG furnace #5 - 2005
space heating, LPG furnace #5 - 201 0
space heating, LPG furnace #5 - 2020
space heating, Dist furnace, existing
space heating, Dist furnace #1 - 1995
space heating, Dist furnace #2 - 1 995
space heating, Dist furnace #3 - 1 995
space heating, Dist radiator, existing
space heating, Dist radiator #1 - 1995
space heating, Dist radiator #2 - 1995
space heating, Dist radiator #2 - 2010
space heating, Dist radiator #3 - 1995
space heating, Dist radiator #3 - 2010
space heating, Wood heater
space heating, Geothermal heat pump #1 - 1995
space heating, Geothermal heat pump #1 - 2005
space heating, Geothermal heat pump #1 - 2020
space heating, Geothermal heat pump #2 - 1995
space heating, Geothermal heat pump #2 - 2010
space heating, Geothermal heat pump #2 - 2020
space heating, Gas heat pump - 1995
space heating, Gas heat pump - 2020
space heating, gas radiator, existing
space cooling, room a/c, existing
space cooling, room a/c#1 - 1995
space cooling, room a/c #1 - 2005
space cooling, room a/c #2 - 1995
space cooling, room a/c #2 - 2020
space cooling, room a/c #3 - 1995
space cooling, room a/c #3 - 2005
space cooling, central a/c, existing
space cooling, central air#1 - 1995
space cooling, central air#1 - 2010
space cooling, central air #2 - 1995
space cooling, central air #2 - 2010
space cooling, central air #2 - 2020
space cooling, central air #3 - 1995
space cooling, central air #3 - 2005
space cooling, central air #3 - 2020
START
year
1995
2005
2010
2020
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
2010
1995
2010
1995
1995
2005
2020
1995
2010
2020
1995
2020
1995
1995
1995
2005
1995
2020
1995
2005
1995
1995
2010
1995
2010
2020
1995
2005
2020
LIFE
years
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
30
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
CF
dec
fraction
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
Capital cost
98$/unit
2700
2200
1950
1700
1300
1300
1400
1900
2480
2480
3065
3065
3650
3650
1700
7410
6760
6760
8541
7891
7735
4355
4355
2480
540
540
540
584
575
760
760
2080
2080
2300
2435
2500
2540
2968
2900
3020
Efficiency
0.97
0.97
0.97
0.97
0.8
0.82
0.87
0.8
0.87
0.89
0.95
0.97
1
3.4
3.4
3.8
4
4.3
4.5
1.4
1.5
2.55
2.83
2.93
3.22
3.37
3.52
2.93
3.52
3.52
3.81
4.1
4.4
4.4
4.69
continued
-------
MARKAL
RC17
RC18
RC19
RC20
RC21
RC22
RC23
RC24
RC25
RC26
RC27
RC28
RC29
RC30
RC31
RC32
RC33
RC34
RC35
RW01
RW02
RW03
RW04
RW05
RW06
RW07
RW08
RW09
RW10
RW11
RW12
RW13
RW14
RW15
RW16
RW17
RW18
RW19
RW20
Technology Name
space cooling, central air #4 - 1995
space cooling, electric heat pump, existing
space cooling, electric heat pump #1 - 1995
space cooling, electric heat pump #1 - 2010
space cooling, electric heat pump #2 - 1995
space cooling, electric heat pump #2 - 2010
space cooling, electric heat pump #2 - 2020
space cooling, electric heat pump #3 - 1995
space cooling, electric heat pump #3 - 2020
space cooling, electric heat pump #4 - 1995
space cooling, electric heat pump #4 - 2020
space cooling, geothermal heat pump#1 -1995
space cooling, geothermal heat pump#1 -2005
space cooling, geothermal heat pump#1 -2020
space cooling, geothermal heat pump #2 -1995
space cooling, geothermal heat pump #2 - 201 0
space cooling, geothermal heat pump #2 -2020
space cooling, gas heat pump - 1995
space cooling, gas heat pump - 2020
water heater, gas, existing
water heater, gas #1 - 1 995
water heater, gas #1 - 2005
water heater, gas #2 - 1 995
water heater, gas #2 - 2005
water heater, gas #3 - 1 995
water heater, gas #3 - 2005
water heater, gas #4 - 1 995
water heater, gas #4 - 2005
water heater, electric, existing
water heater, electric #1 - 1995
water heater, electric #1 - 2005
water heater, electric #2 - 1995
water heater, electric #2 - 2005
water heater, electric #3 - 1995
water heater, electric #3 - 2005
water heater, electric #4 - 1995
water heater, electric #4 - 2020
water heater, electric #5 - 1995
water heater, electric #5 - 2005
START
year
1995
1995
1995
2010
1995
2010
2020
1995
2020
1995
2020
1995
2005
2020
1995
2010
2020
1995
2020
1995
1997
2005
1995
2005
1995
2005
1995
2005
1995
1995
2005
1995
2005
1995
2005
1995
2020
1995
2005
LIFE
years
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
CF
dec
fraction
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
Capital cost
98$/unit
3500
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
326
326
380
370
380
500
390
2100
2000
337
337
500
337
500
590
550
1175
950
1200
1100
Efficiency
5.28
2.93
3.52
3.52
3.81
4.1
4.4
4.69
5.28
5.28
13.5
13.5
15.8
21
21
21
1.4
1.5
0.54
0.59
0.58
0.59
0.6
0.6
0.86
0.86
0.86
0.9
0.88
0.9
0.95
0.95
2
2.2
2.6
2.6
Continued
-------
MARKAL
RW21
RW22
RW23
RW24
RW25
RW26
RW27
RW28
RW29
RW30
RW31
RW32
RW33
RW34
RW35
RR01
RR02
RR03
RR04
RR05
RR06
RR07
RR08
RR09
RR10
RF01
RF02
RF03
RF04
RF05
RF06
RF07
Technology Name
water heater, distillate, existing
water heater, distillate #1 - 1995
water heater, distillate #2 - 1 995
water heater, LPG#1 - 1995
water heater, LPG #1 - 2005
water heater, LPG #2 - 1995
water heater, LPG #2 - 2005
water heater, LPG #3 - 1995
water heater, LPG #3 - 2005
water heater, LPG #4 - 1 995
water heater, LPG #4 - 2005
water heater, solar #1 - 1 995
water heater, solar #1 - 2005
water heater, solar #1 - 201 0
water heater, solar #1 - 2020
refrigeration, existing
refrigeration #1 - 1995
refrigeration #1 - 2005
refrigeration #2 - 1995
refrigeration #2 - 2005
refrigeration #3 - 1995
refrigeration #3 - 2000
refrigeration #3 - 2005
refrigeration TID - 1995
refrigeration TID - 2005
freezing, existing
freezing #1 - 1995
freezing #1 - 2005
freezing #2- 1995
freezing #3- 1995
freezing UP - 1995
freezing UP -2005
START
year
1995
1995
1995
1995
2005
1995
2005
1995
2005
1995
2005
1995
2005
2010
2020
1995
1995
2005
1995
2005
1995
2000
2005
1995
2005
1995
1995
2005
1995
1995
1995
2005
LIFE
years
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
CF
dec
fraction
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Capital cost
98$/unit
725
725
779
326
480
370
480
500
490
1860
1610
3200
2867
2533
2200
600
600
600
650
650
950
650
950
1314
1314
381
381
381
420
500
381
381
Efficiency
0.53
0.58
0.54
0.59
0.58
0.59
0.6
0.6
0.86
0.86
2
2
2
2
690
478
660
460
515
460
400
843
577
472
394
350
302
617
520
-------
Lighting
MARKAL
RL01
RL02
RL03
RL01
RL02
RL03
Technology Name
Incandescent Lighting
Baseline Fluorescent
Fluorescent, elec ballast, rapid start
Incandescent Lighting
Baseline Fluorescent
Fluorescent, elec ballast, rapid start
START
year
1995
1995
2000
Relative
Efficiency
1
4.6
5.4
LIFE
years
15
15
15
Variable O&M
cents/kwh out
0.699424046
0.322894168
0.322894168
CF
dec fraction
1
1
1
Variable O&M
cents/kwh in
0.7
0.1
0.1
TRANSPORTATION SECTOR - LDV
Capital Costs
FIXOM EFF
(1999$/vehicle) (mpg)
TLECGSL
TLEFDSL
TLEFGSL
TLESGSL
TLEMGSL
TLEPGSL
TLEPDSL
TLCCONVOO
TLCCONV05
TLCCONV10
TLCCONV15
TLCCONV20
TLCCONV25
TLCCONV30
TLCCONV35
TLCMMPG10
TLCMMPG15
TLCMMPG20
TLCMMPG25
TLCMMPG30
TLCMMPG35
TLCAMPG10
TLCAMPG15
TLCAMPG20
Car, Gasoline, Existing fleet of compacts
Car, Diesel, Existing fleet
Car, Gasoline, Existing fleet of full size
SUV, Gasoline, Existing Fleet
Minivan, Gasoline, Existing Fleet
Pickups and large vans, Gasoline, Existing Fleet
Light truck, Diesel, Existing fleet
Car, Gasoline, Conventional, Compacts - 2000
Car, Gasoline, Conventional, Compacts - 2005
Car, Gasoline, Conventional, Compacts - 2010
Car, Gasoline, Conventional, Compacts - 2015
Car, Gasoline, Conventional, Compacts - 2020
Car, Gasoline, Conventional, Compacts - 2025
Car, Gasoline, Conventional, Compacts - 2030
Car, Gasoline, Conventional, Compacts - 2035
Car, Gasoline, Moderate MPG, Compact -2010
Car, Gasoline, Moderate MPG, Compact -2015
Car, Gasoline, Moderate MPG, Compact -2020
Car, Gasoline, Moderate MPG, Compact -2025
Car, Gasoline, Moderate MPG, Compact -2030
Car, Gasoline, Moderate MPG, Compact -2035
Car, Gasoline, Advanced MPG, Compact -2010
Car, Gasoline, Advanced MPG, Compact -2015
Car, Gasoline, Advanced MPG, Compact -2020
400
450
450
450
450
500
450
400
400
400
400
400
400
400
400
400
400
400
400
400
400
400
400
400
31.0
29.9
27.0
20.0
25.5
21.0
22.1
31.0
33.0
34.5
34.4
34.4
34.4
34.4
34.4
49.0
48.9
48.9
48.9
48.9
48.9
54.2
54.1
54.0
1995
19.25
20.60
25.36
26.91
24.69
19.94
21.34
19.25
19.25
19.25
19.25
19.25
19.25
19.25
19.25
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2000
19.25
20.60
25.36
26.91
24.69
19.94
21.34
19.25
19.25
19.25
19.25
19.25
19.25
19.25
19.25
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
(Thousands of 1999$/vehicle)
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
20.24
21.66
26.40
27.78
25.54
20.69
22.14
20.24
20.24
20.24
20.24
20.24
20.24
20.24
20.24
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
20.64
22.08
26.82
28.14
25.85
21.01
22.48
20.64
20.64
20.64
20.64
20.64
20.64
20.64
20.64
22.00
22.00
22.00
22.00
22.00
22.00
22.25
22.25
22.25
20.96
22.43
27.14
28.47
26.16
21.30
22.79
20.96
20.96
20.96
20.96
20.96
20.96
20.96
20.96
22.34
22.34
22.34
22.34
22.34
22.34
22.59
22.59
22.59
21.21
22.69
27.39
28.69
26.41
21.50
23.01
21.21
21.21
21.21
21.21
21.21
21.21
21.21
21.21
22.61
22.61
22.61
22.61
22.61
22.61
22.86
22.86
22.86
21.21
22.69
27.39
28.69
26.41
21.50
23.01
21.21
21.21
21.21
21.21
21.21
21.21
21.21
21.21
22.61
22.61
22.61
22.61
22.61
22.61
22.86
22.86
22.86
2030
21.21
22.69
27.39
28.69
26.41
21.50
23.01
21.21
21.21
21.21
21.21
21.21
21.21
21.21
21.21
22.61
22.61
22.61
22.61
22.61
22.61
22.86
22.86
22.86
2035
21.21
22.69
27.39
28.69
26.41
21.50
23.01
21.21
21.21
21.21
21.21
21.21
21.21
21.21
21.21
22.61
22.61
22.61
22.61
22.61
22.61
22.86
22.86
22.86
continued
-------
FIXOM EFF
(1999$/vehicle) (mpg)
TLCAMPG25
TLCAMPG30
TLCAMPG35
TLCADSL05
TLCADSL10
TLCADSL15
TLCADSL20
TLCADSL25
TLCADSL30
TLCADSL35
TLCFCH20
TLCFCH25
TLCCNG05
TLCCNG10
TLCELC05
TLCELC10
TLC2HYB05
TLC2HYB10
TLC2HYB15
TLC2HYB20
TLC2HYB25
TLC2HYB30
TLC2HYB35
TLC3HYB15
TLC3HYB20
TLC3HYB25
TLC3HYB30
TLC3HYB35
TLCETHX05
TLCETHX10
TLCETHX15
TLCETHX20
TLCETHX25
TLCETHX30
TLCETHX35
TLCMTHXOO
TLCMTHX10
TLCMTHX20
TLCCNGXOO
Car, Gasoline, Advanced MPG, Compact -2025
Car, Gasoline, Advanced MPG, Compact -2030
Car, Gasoline, Advanced MPG, Compact -2035
Car, Advanced diesel, Compact - 2005
Car, Advanced diesel, Compact - 2010
Car, Advanced diesel, Compact - 2015
Car, Advanced diesel, Compact - 2020
Car, Advanced diesel, Compact - 2025
Car, Advanced diesel, Compact - 2030
Car, Advanced diesel, Compact - 2035
Car, Fuel cell-Hydrogen, Compact - 2020
Car, Fuel cell-Hydrogen, Compact - 2025
Car, CNG dedicated, Compact - 2005
Car, CNG dedicated, Compact - 201 0
Car, Electric, Compact - 2005
Car, Electric, Compact - 2010
Car, Hybrid (2X), Compact - 2005
Car, Hybrid (2X), Compact - 2010
Car, Hybrid (2X), Compact - 2015
Car, Hybrid (2X), Compact - 2020
Car, Hybrid (2X), Compact - 2025
Car, Hybrid (2X), Compact - 2030
Car, Hybrid (2X), Compact - 2035
Car, Hybrid (3X), Compact - 2015
Car, Hybrid (3X), Compact - 2020
Car, Hybrid (3X), Compact - 2025
Car, Hybrid (3X), Compact - 2030
Car, Hybrid (3X), Compact - 2035
Car, Flex Ethanol, Compact - 2005
Car, Flex Ethanol, Compact - 201 0
Car, Flex Ethanol, Compact - 201 5
Car, Flex Ethanol, Compact - 2020
Car, Flex Ethanol, Compact - 2025
Car, Flex Ethanol, Compact - 2030
Car, Flex Ethanol, Compact - 2035
Car, Flex Methanol, Compact - 2000
Car, Flex Methanol, Compact - 2010
Car, Flex Methanol, Compact - 2020
Car. CNG Bi-fuel, Compact - 2000
400
400
400
400
400
400
400
400
400
400
420
420
360
360
240
240
420
420
420
420
420
420
420
420
420
420
420
420
400
400
400
400
400
400
400
400
400
400
360
54.0
54.0
54.0
44.5
46.6
46.5
46.5
46.5
46.5
46.5
92.9
103.2
33.0
34.5
131.8
138.0
44.5
55.2
60.3
64.5
68.8
68.8
68.8
79.2
92.9
103.2
103.2
103.2
33.0
34.5
34.4
34.4
34.4
34.4
34.4
31.6
35.1
35.3
30.9
1995
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
19.44
19.44
19.44
19.44
19.44
19.44
19.44
21.52
21.52
21.52
25.78
2000
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
19.44
19.44
19.44
19.44
19.44
19.44
19.44
21.52
21.52
21.52
25.78
Capital Costs
(Thousands of 1999$/vehicle)
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
0.00
0.00
0.00
21.66
21.66
21.66
21.66
21.66
21.66
21.66
0.00
0.00
21.86
21.86
54.65
54.65
25.31
25.31
25.31
25.31
25.31
25.31
25.31
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
20.44
20.44
20.44
20.44
20.44
20.44
20.44
22.52
22.52
22.52
26.88
22.25
22.25
22.25
22.08
22.08
22.08
22.08
22.08
22.08
22.08
0.00
0.00
22.29
22.29
39.22
39.22
24.77
24.77
24.77
24.77
24.77
24.77
24.77
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
20.85
20.85
20.85
20.85
20.85
20.85
20.85
22.93
22.93
22.93
27.40
22.59
22.59
22.59
22.43
22.43
22.43
22.43
22.43
22.43
22.43
0.00
0.00
22.64
22.64
31.44
31.44
24.10
24.10
24.10
24.10
24.10
24.10
24.10
26.20
26.20
26.20
26.20
26.20
21.17
21.17
21.17
21.17
21.17
21.17
21.17
23.24
23.24
23.24
27.84
22.86
22.86
22.86
22.70
22.70
22.70
22.70
22.70
22.70
22.70
27.58
27.58
22.91
22.91
31.82
31.82
23.76
23.76
23.76
23.76
23.76
23.76
23.76
25.46
25.46
25.46
25.46
25.46
21.42
21.42
21.42
21.42
21.42
21.42
21.42
23.47
23.47
23.47
28.19
22.86
22.86
22.86
22.70
22.70
22.70
22.70
22.70
22.70
22.70
24.40
24.40
22.91
22.91
31.82
31.82
22.27
22.27
22.27
22.27
22.27
22.27
22.27
23.34
23.34
23.34
23.34
23.34
21.42
21.42
21.42
21.42
21.42
21.42
21.42
23.47
23.47
23.47
28.19
2030
22.86
22.86
22.86
22.70
22.70
22.70
22.70
22.70
22.70
22.70
24.40
24.40
22.91
22.91
31.82
31.82
22.27
22.27
22.27
22.27
22.27
22.27
22.27
23.34
23.34
23.34
23.34
23.34
21.42
21.42
21.42
21.42
21.42
21.42
21.42
23.47
23.47
23.47
28.19
2035
22.86
22.86
22.86
22.70
22.70
22.70
22.70
22.70
22.70
22.70
24.40
24.40
22.91
22.91
31.82
31.82
22.27
22.27
22.27
22.27
22.27
22.27
22.27
23.34
23.34
23.34
23.34
23.34
21.42
21.42
21.42
21.42
21.42
21.42
21.42
23.47
23.47
23.47
28.19
continued
-------
FIXOM EFF
(1999$/vehicle) (mpg)
TLCCNGX10
TLCCNGX20
TLCLPGXOO
TLCLPGX10
TLCLPGX20
TLCFCM10
TLCFCM20
TLFCONVOO
TLFCONV05
TLFCONV10
TLFCONV15
TLFCONV20
TLFCONV25
TLFCONV30
TLFCONV35
TLFMMPG10
TLFMMPG15
TLFMMPG20
TLFMMPG25
TLFMMPG30
TLFMMPG35
TLFAMMP10
TLFAMMP15
TLFAMMP20
TLFAMMP25
TLFAMMP30
TLFAMMP35
TLFADSL05
TLFADSL10
TLFADSL15
TLFADSL20
TLFADSL25
TLFADSL30
TLFADSL35
TLFETHXOO
TLFETHX10
TLFFCH20
TLFFCH25
TLFFCG10
TLFFCG20
Car. CNG Bi-fuel, Compact - 2010
Car. CNG Bi-fuel, Compact - 2020
Car, LPG Bi-fuel, Compact -2000
Car, LPG Bi-fuel, Compact -2010
Car, LPG Bi-fuel, Compact -2020
Car, Fuel Cell Methanol, Compact - 2010
Car, Fuel Cell Methanol, Compact - 2020
Car, Gasoline, Conventional, Full size - 2000
Car, Gasoline, Conventional, Full size - 2005
Car, Gasoline, Conventional, Full size -2010
Car, Gasoline, Conventional, Full size -2015
Car, Gasoline, Conventional, Full size - 2020
Car, Gasoline, Conventional, Full size - 2025
Car, Gasoline, Conventional, Full size - 2030
Car, Gasoline, Conventional, Full size - 2035
Car, Gasoline, Moderate MPG for full size -2010
Car, Gasoline, Moderate MPG for full size -2015
Car, Gasoline, Moderate MPG for full size -2020
Car, Gasoline, Moderate MPG for full size -2025
Car, Gasoline, Moderate MPG for full size -2030
Car, Gasoline, Moderate MPG for full size -2035
Car, Gasoline, Advanced MPG for full size -2010
Car, Gasoline, Advanced MPG for full size -2015
Car, Gasoline, Advanced MPG for full size -2020
Car, Gasoline, Advanced MPG for full size -2025
Car, Gasoline, Advanced MPG for full size -2030
Car, Gasoline, Advanced MPG for full size -2035
Car, Advanced diesel, Full size - 2005
Car, Advanced diesel, Full size - 2010
Car, Advanced diesel, Full size - 2015
Car, Advanced diesel, Full size - 2020
Car, Advanced diesel, Full size - 2025
Car, Advanced diesel, Full size - 2030
Car, Advanced diesel, Full size - 2035
Car, Flex Ethanol, Full size - 2000
Car, Flex Ethanol, Full size - 201 0
Car, Fuel cell-Hydrogen, Full size - 2020
Car, Fuel cell-Hydrogen, Full size - 2025
Car, Fuel Cell-gasoline, Full size - 2010
Car, Fuel Cell-gasoline, Full size - 2020
360
360
360
360
360
420
420
450
450
450
450
450
450
450
450
450
450
450
450
450
450
450
450
450
450
450
450
450
450
450
450
450
450
450
450
450
473
473
473
473
34.0
33.6
31.0
34.3
34.2
67.0
74.6
27.0
28.7
30.0
30.1
30.2
30.2
30.2
30.2
46.8
46.9
47.0
47.0
47.0
47.0
52.5
52.6
52.8
52.8
52.8
52.8
40.2
42.0
42.1
42.2
42.2
42.2
42.2
27.0
30.0
75.4
90.5
58.3
64.9
1995
25.78
25.78
24.13
24.13
24.13
0.00
0.00
25.36
25.36
25.36
25.36
25.36
25.36
25.36
25.36
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
25.61
25.61
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2000
25.78
25.78
24.13
24.13
24.13
0.00
0.00
25.36
25.36
25.36
25.36
25.36
25.36
25.36
25.36
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
25.61
25.61
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Capital Costs
(Thousands of 1999$/vehicle)
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
26.88
26.88
25.18
25.18
25.18
0.00
0.00
26.40
26.40
26.40
26.40
26.40
26.40
26.40
26.40
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
28.24
28.24
28.24
28.24
28.24
28.24
28.24
26.66
26.66
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
27.40
27.40
25.65
25.65
25.65
28.68
28.68
26.82
26.82
26.82
26.82
26.82
26.82
26.82
26.82
28.24
28.24
28.24
28.24
28.24
28.24
28.59
28.59
28.59
28.59
28.59
28.59
28.16
28.16
28.16
28.16
28.16
28.16
28.16
27.09
27.09
0.00
0.00
37.27
37.27
27.84
27.84
26.03
26.03
26.03
28.68
28.68
27.14
27.14
27.14
27.14
27.14
27.14
27.14
27.14
28.58
28.58
28.58
28.58
28.58
28.58
28.93
28.93
28.93
28.93
28.93
28.93
28.50
28.50
28.50
28.50
28.50
28.50
28.50
27.41
27.41
0.00
0.00
37.13
37.13
28.19
28.19
26.33
26.33
26.33
28.63
28.63
27.39
27.39
27.39
27.39
27.39
27.39
27.39
27.39
28.84
28.84
28.84
28.84
28.84
28.84
29.20
29.20
29.20
29.20
29.20
29.20
28.76
28.76
28.76
28.76
28.76
28.76
28.76
27.66
27.66
34.24
34.24
36.98
36.98
28.19
28.19
26.33
26.33
26.33
25.45
25.45
27.39
27.39
27.39
27.39
27.39
27.39
27.39
27.39
28.84
28.84
28.84
28.84
28.84
28.84
29.20
29.20
29.20
29.20
29.20
29.20
28.76
28.76
28.76
28.76
28.76
28.76
28.76
27.66
27.66
31.50
31.50
32.87
32.87
2030
28.19
28.19
26.33
26.33
26.33
25.45
25.45
27.39
27.39
27.39
27.39
27.39
27.39
27.39
27.39
28.84
28.84
28.84
28.84
28.84
28.84
29.20
29.20
29.20
29.20
29.20
29.20
28.76
28.76
28.76
28.76
28.76
28.76
28.76
27.66
27.66
31.50
31.50
0.00
0.00
2035
28.19
28.19
26.33
26.33
26.33
25.45
25.45
27.39
27.39
27.39
27.39
27.39
27.39
27.39
27.39
28.84
28.84
28.84
28.84
28.84
28.84
29.20
29.20
29.20
29.20
29.20
29.20
28.76
28.76
28.76
28.76
28.76
28.76
28.76
27.66
27.66
31.50
31.50
0.00
0.00
continued
-------
FIXOM EFF
(1999$/vehicle) (mpg)
TLFFCG25
TLFCNG05
TLFCNG10
TLFELC10
TLF2HYB05
TLF2HYB10
TLF2HYB15
TLF2HYB20
TLF2HYB25
TLF2HYB30
TLF2HYB35
TLF3HYB10
TLF3HYB15
TLF3HYB20
TLF3HYB25
TLF3HYB30
TLF3HYB35
TLFMTHXOO
TLFMTHX10
TLFMTHX20
TLFCNGXOO
TLFCNGX10
TLFCNGX20
TLFLPGXOO
TLFLPGX10
TLFLPGX20
TLFFCM10
TLFFCM20
TLSCONVOO
TLSCONV05
TLSCONV10
TLSCONV15
TLSCONV20
TLSCONV25
TLSCONV30
TLSCONV35
TLSMMPG10
TLSMMPG15
TLSMMPG20
TLSMMPG25
Car, Fuel Cell-gasoline, Full size - 2025
Car, CNG Dedicated, Full size - 2005
Car, CNG Dedicated, Full size -2010
Car, Electric, Full size - 2010
Car, Hybrid (2X), Full size - 2005
Car, Hybrid (2X), Full size - 2010
Car, Hybrid (2X), Full size - 2015
Car, Hybrid (2X), Full size - 2020
Car, Hybrid (2X), Full size - 2025
Car, Hybrid (2X), Full size - 2030
Car, Hybrid (2X), Full size - 2035
Car, Hybrid (3X), Full size - 2010
Car, Hybrid (3X), Full size - 2015
Car, Hybrid (3X), Full size - 2020
Car, Hybrid (3X), Full size - 2025
Car, Hybrid (3X), Full size - 2030
Car, Hybrid (3X), Full size - 2035
Car, Flex Methanol, Full Size - 2000
Car, Flex Methanol, Full Size -2010
Car, Flex Methanol, Full Size - 2020
Car. CNG Bi-fuel, Full Size - 2000
Car. CNG Bi-fuel, Full Size -2010
Car. CNG Bi-fuel, Full Size - 2020
Car, LPG Bi-fuel, Full Size -2000
Car, LPG Bi-fuel, Full Size -2010
Car, LPG Bi-fuel, Full Size -2020
Car, Fuel Cell Methanol, Full Size - 2010
Car, Fuel Cell Methanol, Full Size - 2020
SUV, Conventional - 2000
SUV, Conventional - 2005
SUV, Conventional - 201 0
SUV, Conventional - 201 5
SUV, Conventional - 2020
SUV, Conventional - 2025
SUV, Conventional - 2030
SUV, Conventional - 2035
SUV, Moderate MPG -2010
SUV, Moderate MPG - 201 5
SUV, Moderate MPG -2020
SUV, Moderate MPG -2025
473
405
405
270
473
473
473
473
473
473
473
473
473
473
473
473
473
450
450
450
405
405
405
405
405
405
473
473
450
450
450
450
450
450
450
450
450
450
450
450
75.4
28.7
30.0
120.0
43.1
48.0
52.6
56.6
60.3
60.3
60.3
60.0
69.1
81.4
90.5
90.5
90.5
27.6
30.8
30.8
26.9
29.1
28.5
26.9
29.7
29.5
58.3
64.9
20.0
21.0
21.9
22.7
23.3
23.3
23.3
23.3
37.3
38.6
39.6
39.6
1995
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
27.80
27.80
27.80
31.88
31.88
31.88
30.55
30.55
30.55
0.00
0.00
26.91
26.91
26.91
26.91
26.91
26.91
26.91
26.91
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2000
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
27.80
27.80
27.80
31.88
31.88
31.88
30.55
30.55
30.55
0.00
0.00
26.91
26.91
26.91
26.91
26.91
26.91
26.91
26.91
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Capital Costs
(Thousands of 1999$/vehicle)
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
0.00
28.16
28.16
0.00
33.00
33.00
33.00
33.00
33.00
33.00
33.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
28.85
28.85
28.85
33.15
33.15
33.15
31.73
31.73
31.73
0.00
0.00
27.78
27.78
27.78
27.78
27.78
27.78
27.78
27.78
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
37.27
27.89
27.89
47.82
32.18
32.18
32.18
32.18
32.18
32.18
32.18
34.87
34.87
34.87
34.87
34.87
34.87
29.28
29.28
29.28
33.78
33.78
33.78
32.27
32.27
32.27
37.27
37.27
28.14
28.14
28.14
28.14
28.14
28.14
28.14
28.14
29.46
29.46
29.46
29.46
37.13
28.23
28.23
40.71
31.21
31.21
31.21
31.21
31.21
31.21
31.21
32.57
32.57
32.57
32.57
32.57
32.57
29.62
29.62
29.62
34.31
34.31
34.31
32.70
32.70
32.70
37.13
37.13
28.47
28.47
28.47
28.47
28.47
28.47
28.47
28.47
29.81
29.81
29.81
29.81
36.98
28.49
28.49
40.96
29.99
29.99
29.99
29.99
29.99
29.99
29.99
31.35
31.35
31.35
31.35
31.35
31.35
29.89
29.89
29.89
34.70
34.70
34.70
33.00
33.00
33.00
36.98
36.98
28.69
28.69
28.69
28.69
28.69
28.69
28.69
28.69
30.04
30.04
30.04
30.04
32.87
28.49
28.49
40.96
28.76
28.76
28.76
28.76
28.76
28.76
28.76
30.13
30.13
30.13
30.13
30.13
30.13
29.89
29.89
29.89
34.70
34.70
34.70
33.00
33.00
33.00
32.87
32.87
28.69
28.69
28.69
28.69
28.69
28.69
28.69
28.69
30.04
30.04
30.04
30.04
2030 2035
0.00 0.00
28.49 28.49
28.49 28.49
40.96 40.96
28.76 28.76
28.76 28.76
28.76 28.76
28.76 28.76
28.76 28.76
28.76 28.76
28.76 28.76
30.13 30.13
30.13 30.13
30.13 30.13
30.13 30.13
30.13 30.13
30.13 30.13
29.89 29.89
29.89 29.89
29.89 29.89
34.70 34.70
34.70 34.70
34.70 34.70
33.00 33.00
33.00 33.00
33.00 33.00
32.87 32.87
32.87 32.87
28.69 28.69
28.69 28.69
28.69 28.69
28.69 28.69
28.69 28.69
28.69 28.69
28.69 28.69
28.69 28.69
30.04 30.04
30.04 30.04
30.04 30.04
30.04 30.04
continued
-------
FIXOM EFF
(1999$/vehicle) (mpg)
TLSMMPG30
TLSMMPG35
TLSAMPG10
TLSAMPG15
TLSAMPG20
TLSAMPG25
TLSAMPG30
TLSAMPG35
TLSADSL05
TLSADSL10
TLSADSL15
TLSADSL20
TLSADSL25
TLSADSL30
TLSADSL35
TLSETHX05
TLSETHX15
TLSFCH15
TLSFCH20
TLSFCH25
TLSFCG10
TLSFCG20
TLSCNG05
TLSCNG15
TLSELC10
TLSELC20
TLS2HYB05
TLS2HYB10
TLS2HYB15
TLS2HYB20
TLS2HYB25
TLS2HYB30
TLS2HYB35
TLS3HYB15
TLS3HYB20
TLS3HYB25
TLS3HYB30
TLS3HYB35
TLSMTHXOO
TLSMTHX10
SUV, Moderate MPG - 2030
SUV, Moderate MPG - 2035
SUV, Advanced MPG - 201 0
SUV, Advanced MPG -201 5
SUV, Advanced MPG - 2020
SUV, Advanced MPG -2025
SUV, Advanced MPG - 2030
SUV, Advanced MPG - 2035
SUV, Advanced diesel - 2005
SUV, Advanced diesel - 2010
SUV, Advanced diesel - 2015
SUV, Advanced diesel - 2020
SUV, Advanced diesel - 2025
SUV, Advanced diesel - 2030
SUV, Advanced diesel - 2035
SUV, Flex Ethanol - 2005
SUV, Flex Ethanol -201 5
SUV, Fuel Cell-Hydrogen -2015
SUV, Fuel Cell-Hydrogen - 2020
SUV, Fuel Cell-Hydrogen - 2025
SUV, Fuel cell-Gasoline - 2010
SUV, Fuel cell-Gasoline - 2020
SUV, CNG dedicated - 2005
SUV, CNG dedicated - 201 5
SUV, Electric - 201 0
SUV, Electric - 2020
SUV, Hybrid (2X) - 2005
SUV, Hybrid (2XJ-2010
SUV, Hybrid (2X) - 201 5
SUV, Hybrid (2X) - 2020
SUV, Hybrid (2X) - 2025
SUV, Hybrid (2X) - 2030
SUV, Hybrid (2X) - 2035
SUV, Hybrid (3X) - 201 5
SUV, Hybrid (3X) - 2020
SUV, Hybrid (3X) - 2025
SUV, Hybrid (3X) - 2030
SUV, Hybrid (3X) - 2035
SUV, Flex Methanol - 2000
SUV, Flex Methanol -2010
450
450
450
450
450
450
450
450
450
450
450
450
450
450
450
450
450
473
473
473
473
473
405
405
270
270
473
473
473
473
473
473
473
473
473
473
473
473
450
450
39.6
39.6
43.4
44.9
46.2
46.2
46.2
46.2
29.4
30.7
31.8
32.6
32.6
32.6
32.6
21.0
22.7
52.2
58.3
69.9
39.3
46.6
21.0
22.7
87.7
93.2
28.4
35.1
39.7
43.7
46.6
46.6
46.6
45.4
53.6
69.9
69.9
69.9
20.4
22.5
1995
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
31.94
31.94
2000
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
29.32
29.32
Capital Costs
(Thousands of 1999$/vehicle)
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
29.96
29.96
29.96
29.96
29.96
29.96
29.96
28.06
28.06
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
29.17
29.17
0.00
0.00
34.02
34.02
34.02
34.02
34.02
34.02
34.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
30.16
30.16
29.46
29.46
30.11
30.11
30.11
30.11
30.11
30.11
30.11
30.11
30.11
30.11
30.11
30.11
30.11
28.42
28.42
0.00
0.00
0.00
39.12
39.12
29.53
29.53
42.21
42.21
33.77
33.77
33.77
33.77
33.77
33.77
33.77
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
30.50
30.50
29.81
29.81
30.46
30.46
30.46
30.46
30.46
30.46
30.44
30.44
30.44
30.44
30.44
30.44
30.44
28.75
28.75
38.18
38.18
38.18
38.93
38.93
29.86
29.86
41.19
41.19
32.74
32.74
32.74
32.74
32.74
32.74
32.74
35.58
35.58
35.58
35.58
35.58
30.84
30.84
30.04
30.04
30.70
30.70
30.70
30.70
30.70
30.70
30.66
30.66
30.66
30.66
30.66
30.66
30.66
28.98
28.98
35.86
35.86
35.86
38.73
38.73
30.08
30.08
40.17
40.17
31.43
31.43
31.43
31.43
31.43
31.43
31.43
34.43
34.43
34.43
34.43
34.43
31.06
31.06
30.04
30.04
30.70
30.70
30.70
30.70
30.70
30.70
30.66
30.66
30.66
30.66
30.66
30.66
30.66
28.98
28.98
32.99
32.99
32.99
0.00
0.00
30.08
30.08
40.17
40.17
30.13
30.13
30.13
30.13
30.13
30.13
30.13
31.56
31.56
31.56
31.56
31.56
31.06
31.06
2030
30.04
30.04
30.70
30.70
30.70
30.70
30.70
30.70
30.66
30.66
30.66
30.66
30.66
30.66
30.66
28.98
28.98
32.99
32.99
32.99
0.00
0.00
30.08
30.08
40.17
40.17
30.13
30.13
30.13
30.13
30.13
30.13
30.13
31.56
31.56
31.56
31.56
31.56
31.06
31.06
2035
30.04
30.04
30.70
30.70
30.70
30.70
30.70
30.70
30.66
30.66
30.66
30.66
30.66
30.66
30.66
28.98
28.98
32.99
32.99
32.99
0.00
0.00
30.08
30.08
40.17
40.17
30.13
30.13
30.13
30.13
30.13
30.13
30.13
31.56
31.56
31.56
31.56
31.56
31.06
31.06
continued
-------
FIXOM EFF
(1999$/vehicle) (mpg)
TLSMTHX20
TLSCNGXOO
TLSCNGX10
TLSCNGX20
TLSLPGXOO
TLSLPGX10
TLSLPGX20
TLSFCM10
TLSFCM20
TLMCONVOO
TLMCONV05
TLMCONV10
TLMCONV15
TLMCONV20
TLMCONV25
TLMCONV30
TLMCONV35
TLMMMPG10
TLMMMPG15
TLMMMPG20
TLMMMPG25
TLMMMPG30
TLMMMPG35
TLMAMPG10
TLMAMPG15
TLMAMPG20
TLMAMPG25
TLMAMPG30
TLMAMPG35
TLMADSL10
TLMADSL15
TLMADSL20
TLMADSL25
TLMADSL30
TLMADSL35
TLMETHXOO
TLMETHX10
TLMETHX20
TLMFCH15
TLMFCH20
SUV, Flex Methanol - 2020
SUV. CNG Bi-fuel - 2000
SUV. CNGBi-fuel- 2010
SUV. CNG Bi-fuel - 2020
SUV, LPG Bi-fuel -2000
SUV, LPG Bi-fuel -2010
SUV, LPG Bi-fuel -2020
SUV, Fuel Cell Methanol -2010
SUV, Fuel Cell Methanol - 2020
Minivan, Conventional - 2000
Minivan, Conventional - 2005
Minivan, Conventional - 2010
Minivan, Conventional - 2015
Minivan, Conventional - 2020
Minivan, Conventional - 2025
Minivan, Conventional - 2030
Minivan, Conventional - 2035
Minivan, Moderate MPG - 201 0
Minivan, Moderate MPG - 201 5
Minivan, Moderate MPG - 2020
Minivan, Moderate MPG - 2025
Minivan, Moderate MPG - 2030
Minivan, Moderate MPG - 2035
Minivan, Advanced MPG - 2010
Minivan, Advanced MPG - 2015
Minivan, Advanced MPG - 2020
Minivan, Advanced MPG - 2025
Minivan, Advanced MPG - 2030
Minivan, Advanced MPG - 2035
Minivan, Advanced diesel - 201 0
Minivan, Advanced diesel - 201 5
Minivan, Advanced diesel - 2020
Minivan, Advanced diesel - 2025
Minivan, Advanced diesel - 2030
Minivan, Advanced diesel - 2035
Minivan, Flex Ethanol - 2000
Minivan, Flex Ethanol - 2010
Minivan, Flex Ethanol - 2020
Minivan, Fuel cell-Hydrogen -2015
Minivan, Fuel cell-Hydrogen - 2020
450
405
405
405
405
405
405
473
473
450
450
450
450
450
450
450
450
450
450
450
450
450
450
450
450
450
450
450
450
450
450
450
450
450
450
450
450
450
495
495
23.9
20.0
21.4
22.3
20.0
21.7
23.0
39.3
46.6
25.5
26.2
27.0
27.8
28.8
28.8
28.8
28.8
41.8
41.8
44.6
44.6
44.6
44.6
49.9
51.5
53.2
53.2
53.2
53.2
37.7
39.0
40.3
40.3
40.3
40.3
25.5
27.0
28.8
58.0
72.0
1995
31.94
32.65
32.65
32.65
31.80
31.80
31.80
0.00
0.00
24.69
24.69
24.69
24.69
24.69
24.69
24.69
24.69
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
24.94
24.94
24.94
0.00
0.00
2000
29.32
29.32
29.32
29.32
31.80
31.80
31.80
0.00
0.00
24.69
24.69
24.69
24.69
24.69
24.69
24.69
24.69
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
24.94
24.94
24.94
0.00
0.00
Capital Costs
(Thousands of 1999$/vehicle)
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
30.16
30.16
30.16
30.16
32.71
32.71
32.71
0.00
0.00
25.54
25.54
25.54
25.54
25.54
25.54
25.54
25.54
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
25.80
25.80
25.80
0.00
0.00
30.50
30.50
30.50
30.50
33.16
33.16
33.16
39.12
39.12
25.85
25.85
25.85
25.85
25.85
25.85
25.85
25.85
27.01
27.01
27.01
27.01
27.01
27.01
27.53
27.53
27.53
27.53
27.53
27.53
27.66
27.66
27.66
27.66
27.66
27.66
26.11
26.11
26.11
0.00
0.00
30.84
30.84
30.84
30.84
33.58
33.58
33.58
38.93
38.93
26.16
26.16
26.16
26.16
26.16
26.16
26.16
26.16
27.34
27.34
27.34
27.34
27.34
27.34
27.86
27.86
27.86
27.86
27.86
27.86
27.96
27.96
27.96
27.96
27.96
27.96
26.42
26.42
26.42
34.86
34.86
31.06
31.06
31.06
31.06
33.83
33.83
33.83
38.73
38.73
26.41
26.41
26.41
26.41
26.41
26.41
26.41
26.41
27.60
27.60
27.60
27.60
27.60
27.60
28.13
28.13
28.13
28.13
28.13
28.13
28.22
28.22
28.22
28.22
28.22
28.22
26.67
26.67
26.67
33.01
33.01
31.06
31.06
31.06
31.06
33.83
33.83
33.83
38.73
38.73
26.41
26.41
26.41
26.41
26.41
26.41
26.41
26.41
27.60
27.60
27.60
27.60
27.60
27.60
28.13
28.13
28.13
28.13
28.13
28.13
28.22
28.22
28.22
28.22
28.22
28.22
26.67
26.67
26.67
30.37
30.37
2030
31.06
31.06
31.06
31.06
33.83
33.83
33.83
38.73
38.73
26.41
26.41
26.41
26.41
26.41
26.41
26.41
26.41
27.60
27.60
27.60
27.60
27.60
27.60
28.13
28.13
28.13
28.13
28.13
28.13
28.22
28.22
28.22
28.22
28.22
28.22
26.67
26.67
26.67
30.37
30.37
2035
31.06
31.06
31.06
31.06
33.83
33.83
33.83
38.73
38.73
26.41
26.41
26.41
26.41
26.41
26.41
26.41
26.41
27.60
27.60
27.60
27.60
27.60
27.60
28.13
28.13
28.13
28.13
28.13
28.13
28.22
28.22
28.22
28.22
28.22
28.22
26.67
26.67
26.67
30.37
30.37
continued
-------
oo
FIXOM EFF
(1999$/vehicle) (mpg)
TLMFCH25
TLMFCG10
TLMFCG15
TLMFCG20
TLMCNG05
TLMCNG15
TLMELC10
TLMELC20
TLM2HYB10
TLM2HYB15
TLM2HYB20
TLM2HYB25
TLM2HYB30
TLM2HYB35
TLM3HYB15
TLM3HYB20
TLM3HYB25
TLM3HYB30
TLM3HYB35
TLMMTHXOO
TLMMTHX10
TLMMTHX20
TLMCNGXOO
TLMCNGX10
TLMCNGX20
TLMLPGXOO
TLMLPGX10
TLMLPGX20
TLMFCM10
TLMFCM20
TLPCONVOO
TLPCONV05
TLPCONV10
TLPCONV15
TLPCONV20
TLPCONV25
TLPCONV30
TLPCONV35
TLPMMPG10
TLPMMPG15
Minivan, Fuel cell-Hydrogen - 2025
Minivan, Fuel cell-Gasoline - 2010
Minivan, Fuel cell-Gasoline - 2015
Minivan, Fuel cell-Gasoline - 2020
Minivan, CNG dedicated - 2005
Minivan, CNG dedicated - 201 5
Minivan, Electric- 2010
Minivan, Electric - 2020
Minivan, Hybrid (2X) - 2010
Minivan, Hybrid (2XJ-2015
Minivan, Hybrid (2X) - 2020
Minivan, Hybrid (2X) - 2025
Minivan, Hybrid (2X) - 2030
Minivan, Hybrid (2X) - 2035
Minivan, Hybrid (3X) - 2015
Minivan, Hybrid (3X) - 2020
Minivan, Hybrid (3X) - 2025
Minivan, Hybrid (3X) - 2030
Minivan, Hybrid (3X) - 2035
Minivan, Flex Methanol - 2000
Minivan, Flex Methanol - 2010
Minivan, Flex Methanol - 2020
Minivan. CNG Bi-fuel - 2000
Minivan. CNG Bi-fuel - 2010
Minivan. CNG Bi-fuel - 2020
Minivan, LPG Bi-fuel -2000
Minivan, LPG Bi-fuel -2010
Minivan, LPG Bi-fuel -2020
Minivan, Fuel Cell Methanol -2010
Minivan, Fuel Cell Methanol - 2020
Pickups and large vans, Conventional - 2000
Pickups and large vans, Conventional - 2005
Pickups and large vans, Conventional - 2010
Pickups and large vans, Conventional - 2015
Pickups and large vans, Conventional - 2020
Pickups and large vans, Conventional - 2025
Pickups and large vans, Conventional - 2030
Pickups and large vans, Conventional - 2035
Pickups and large vans, Moderate MPG - 2010
Pickups and large vans, Moderate MPG - 2015
495
450
450
450
405
405
270
270
473
473
473
473
473
473
495
495
495
495
495
450
450
450
405
405
405
405
405
405
450
450
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
86.4
49.0
55.2
61.9
26.2
27.8
107.8
115.1
43.1
48.7
54.0
57.6
57.6
57.6
57.1
66.2
86.4
86.4
86.4
26.2
27.7
29.6
25.4
25.9
27.2
25.4
26.5
28.3
49.0
61.9
21.0
21.8
22.7
23.4
24.2
24.2
24.2
24.2
31.0
32.1
1995
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
26.90
26.90
26.90
30.15
30.15
30.15
29.34
29.34
29.34
0.00
0.00
19.94
19.94
19.94
19.94
19.94
19.94
19.94
19.94
0.00
0.00
2000
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
26.90
26.90
26.90
30.15
30.15
30.15
29.34
29.34
29.34
0.00
0.00
19.94
19.94
19.94
19.94
19.94
19.94
19.94
19.94
0.00
0.00
Capital Costs
(Thousands of 1999$/vehicle)
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
26.82
26.82
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
27.73
27.73
27.73
31.22
31.22
31.22
30.33
30.33
30.33
0.00
0.00
20.69
20.69
20.69
20.69
20.69
20.69
20.69
20.69
0.00
0.00
0.00
34.66
34.66
34.66
27.14
27.14
46.11
46.11
31.02
31.02
31.02
31.02
31.02
31.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
28.02
28.02
28.02
31.73
31.73
31.73
30.74
30.74
30.74
34.66
34.66
21.01
21.01
21.01
21.01
21.01
21.01
21.01
21.01
22.38
21.96
34.86
34.49
34.49
34.49
27.46
27.46
39.23
39.23
30.08
30.08
30.08
30.08
30.08
30.08
32.33
32.33
32.33
32.33
32.33
28.34
28.34
28.34
32.21
32.21
32.21
31.09
31.09
31.09
34.49
34.49
21.30
21.30
21.30
21.30
21.30
21.30
21.30
21.30
22.68
22.26
33.01
34.33
34.33
34.33
27.73
27.73
39.49
39.49
28.90
28.90
28.90
28.90
28.90
28.90
30.90
30.90
30.90
30.90
30.90
28.59
28.59
28.59
32.54
32.54
32.54
31.37
31.37
31.37
34.33
34.33
21.50
21.50
21.50
21.50
21.50
21.50
21.50
21.50
22.90
22.47
30.37
0.00
0.00
0.00
27.73
27.73
39.49
39.49
27.73
27.73
27.73
27.73
27.73
27.73
29.05
29.05
29.05
29.05
29.05
28.59
28.59
28.59
32.54
32.54
32.54
31.37
31.37
31.37
34.33
34.33
21.50
21.50
21.50
21.50
21.50
21.50
21.50
21.50
22.90
22.90
2030
30.37
0.00
0.00
0.00
27.73
27.73
39.49
39.49
27.73
27.73
27.73
27.73
27.73
27.73
29.05
29.05
29.05
29.05
29.05
28.59
28.59
28.59
32.54
32.54
32.54
31.37
31.37
31.37
34.33
34.33
21.50
21.50
21.50
21.50
21.50
21.50
21.50
21.50
22.90
22.90
2035
30.37
0.00
0.00
0.00
27.73
27.73
39.49
39.49
27.73
27.73
27.73
27.73
27.73
27.73
29.05
29.05
29.05
29.05
29.05
28.59
28.59
28.59
32.54
32.54
32.54
31.37
31.37
31.37
34.33
34.33
21.50
21.50
21.50
21.50
21.50
21.50
21.50
21.50
22.90
22.90
continued
-------
FIXOM EFF
(1999$/vehicle) (mpg)
TLPMMPG20
TLPMMPG25
TLPMMPG30
TLPMMPG35
TLPAMPG10
TLPAMPG15
TLPAMPG20
TLPAMPG25
TLPAMPG30
TLPAMPG35
TLPADSL05
TLPADSL10
TLPADSL15
TLPADSL20
TLPADSL25
TLPADSL30
TLPADSL35
TLPETHX05
TLPETHX10
TLPETHX20
TLPFCH15
TLPFCH20
TLPFCH25
TLPCNG05
TLPCNG15
TLPELC05
TLPELC15
TLPELC25
TLP2HYB10
TLP2HYB15
TLP2HYB20
TLP2HYB25
TLP2HYB30
TLP2HYB35
TLP3HYB20
TLP3HYB25
TLP3HYB30
TLP3HYB35
TLPMTHXOO
Pickups and large vans, Moderate MPG - 2020
Pickups and large vans, Moderate MPG - 2025
Pickups and large vans, Moderate MPG - 2030
Pickups and large vans, Moderate MPG - 2035
Pickups and large vans, Advanced MPG - 2010
Pickups and large vans, Advanced MPG - 2015
Pickups and large vans, Advanced MPG - 2020
Pickups and large vans, Advanced MPG - 2025
Pickups and large vans, Advanced MPG - 2030
Pickups and large vans, Advanced MPG - 2035
Pickups and large vans, Advanced diesel - 2005
Pickups and large vans, Advanced diesel - 2010
Pickups and large vans, Advanced diesel - 2015
Pickups and large vans, Advanced diesel - 2020
Pickups and large vans, Advanced diesel - 2025
Pickups and large vans, Advanced diesel - 2030
Pickups and large vans, Advanced diesel - 2035
Pickups and large vans, Flex Ethanol - 2005
Pickups and large vans, Flex Ethanol - 2010
Pickups and large vans, Flex Ethanol - 2020
Pickups and large vans, Fuel cell-Hydrogen - 2015
Pickups and large vans, Fuel cell-Hydrogen - 2020
Pickups and large vans, Fuel cell-Hydrogen - 2025
Pickups and large vans, CNG dedicated - 2005
Pickups and large vans, CNG dedicated - 2015
Pickups and large vans, Electric - 2005
Pickups and large vans, Electric - 201 5
Pickups and large vans, Electric - 2025
Pickups and large vans, Hybrid (2X) - 201 0
Pickups and large vans, Hybrid (2X) - 201 5
Pickups and large vans, Hybrid (2X) - 2020
Pickups and large vans, Hybrid (2X) - 2025
Pickups and large vans, Hybrid (2X) - 2030
Pickups and large vans, Hybrid (2X) - 2035
Pickups and large vans, Hybrid (3X) - 2020
Pickups and large vans, Hybrid (3X) - 2025
Pickups and large vans, Hybrid (3X) - 2030
Pickups and large vans, Hybrid (3X) - 2035
Pickups and large vans, Flex Methanol - 2000
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
525
525
525
450
450
300
300
300
525
525
525
525
525
525
525
525
525
525
500
33.1
33.1
33.1
33.1
36.5
37.7
38.9
38.9
38.9
38.9
30.5
31.7
32.8
33.8
33.8
33.8
33.8
21.8
22.7
24.2
51.3
60.4
72.5
21.8
23.4
87.3
93.7
96.6
37.9
41.0
45.3
48.3
48.3
48.3
59.1
72.5
72.5
72.5
21.5
1995
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
22.30
2000
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
22.30
Capital Costs
(Thousands of 1999$/vehicle)
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
22.28
22.28
22.28
22.28
22.28
22.28
22.28
20.90
20.90
20.90
0.00
0.00
0.00
22.76
22.76
55.86
55.86
55.86
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
23.05
22.00
0.00
0.00
22.65
23.07
22.38
22.48
0.00
0.00
23.34
22.49
22.49
22.49
22.49
22.49
22.49
22.49
21.22
21.22
21.22
0.00
0.00
0.00
23.12
23.12
39.93
39.93
39.93
24.90
24.90
24.90
24.90
24.90
24.90
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
23.34
22.30
0.00
0.00
22.96
23.39
22.68
22.79
0.00
0.00
23.62
22.79
22.79
22.79
22.79
22.79
22.79
22.79
21.51
21.51
21.51
27.91
27.91
27.91
23.43
23.43
31.94
31.94
31.94
24.49
24.49
24.49
24.49
24.49
24.49
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
23.64
22.51
0.00
0.00
23.18
23.61
22.90
23.01
0.00
0.00
23.80
23.01
23.01
23.01
23.01
23.01
23.01
23.01
21.72
21.72
21.72
26.88
26.88
26.88
23.65
23.65
32.26
32.26
32.26
23.53
23.53
23.53
23.53
23.53
23.53
25.34
25.34
25.34
25.34
23.85
22.90
22.90
22.90
22.90
23.61
23.61
23.61
23.61
23.61
23.61
23.01
23.01
23.01
23.01
23.01
23.01
23.01
21.72
21.72
21.72
24.73
24.73
24.73
23.65
23.65
32.26
32.26
32.26
22.58
22.58
22.58
22.58
22.58
22.58
23.65
23.65
23.65
23.65
23.85
2030
22.90
22.90
22.90
22.90
23.61
23.61
23.61
23.61
23.61
23.61
23.01
23.01
23.01
23.01
23.01
23.01
23.01
21.72
21.72
21.72
24.73
24.73
24.73
23.65
23.65
32.26
32.26
32.26
22.58
22.58
22.58
22.58
22.58
22.58
23.65
23.65
23.65
23.65
23.85
2035
22.90
22.90
22.90
22.90
23.61
23.61
23.61
23.61
23.61
23.61
23.01
23.01
23.01
23.01
23.01
23.01
23.01
21.72
21.72
21.72
24.73
24.73
24.73
23.65
23.65
32.26
32.26
32.26
22.58
22.58
22.58
22.58
22.58
22.58
23.65
23.65
23.65
23.65
23.85
continued
-------
to
o
Capital Costs
FIXOM
(1999$/vehicle)
TLPMTHX10 Pickups and large vans, Flex Methanol - 2010 500
TLPMTHX20 Pickups and large vans, Flex Methanol - 2020 500
TLPCNGXOO Pickups and large vans. CNG Bi-fuel - 2000 450
TLPCNGX10 Pickups and large vans. CNG Bi-fuel -2010 450
TLPCNGX20 Pickups and large vans. CNG Bi-fuel - 2020 450
TLPLPGXOO Pickups and large vans, LPG Bi-fuel -2000 450
TLPLPGX1 0 Pickups and large vans, LPG Bi-fuel -201 0 450
TLPLPGX20 Pickups and large vans, LPG Bi-fuel -2020 450
TLPFCM1 0 Pickups and large vans, Fuel Cell Methanol - 201 0 525
TLPFCM20 Pickups and large vans, Fuel Cell Methanol - 2020 525
TRANSPORTATION - OTHER
THDSLOO Truck, Heavy, Diesel - 2000
THDSL20POO Truck, Heavy, Diesel + 20% MPG - 2000
THDSL40POO Truck, Heavy, Diesel + 40% MPG - 2000
THEDSL Truck, Heavy, Existing Diesel Fleet
THGSL Truck, Heavy, Gasoline
THEGSL Truck, Heavy, Existing Gasoline Fleet
THCNG Truck, Heavy, Compressed Natural Gas
THALC Truck, Heavy, Alcohol Fuel
THLPG Truck, Heavy, LPG
THDSL1 0 Truck, Heavy, Diesel - 201 0
THDSL10P10 Truck, Heavy, Diesel + 10% MPG -2010
THDSL20P10 Truck, Heavy, Diesel + 20% MPG - 2010
THDSL20 Truck, Heavy, Diesel - 2020
THDSL1 OP20 Truck, Heavy, Diesel + 1 0% MPG - 2020
THDSL20P20 Truck, Heavy, Diesel + 20% MPG - 2020
EFF
(mpg)
23.3
24.8
20.9
22.2
23.1
21.0
22.5
23.7
40.6
48.3
START
1995
2000
2005
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
2010
2010
2010
2020
2020
2020
(Thousands of 1999$/vehicle)
1995 2000
22.30 22.30
22.30 22.30
24.65 24.65
24.65 24.65
24.65 24.65
24.53 24.53
24.53 24.53
24.53 24.53
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
LIFE
29
29
29
29
29
29
29
29
29
29
29
29
29
29
29
2005 2010
23.05 23.34
23.05 23.34
25.47 25.88
25.47 25.88
25.47 25.88
25.32 25.69
25.32 25.69
25.32 25.69
0.00 29.21
0.00 29.21
INVCOST
(1999$/vehicle)
1 3331 1
1 3421 3
1 3691 9
133311
133311
1 3331 1
1 3331 1
1 3331 1
1 3331 1
1 35023
1 38654
144291
1 39086
145173
1 53425
2015 2020
23.64 23.85
23.64 23.85
26.35 26.65
26.35 26.65
26.35 26.65
26.09 26.32
26.09 26.32
26.09 26.32
29.13 29.03
29.13 29.03
FIXOM
(1999$/vehicle)
6667
6712
6845
6667
6667
6667
6667
6667
6667
6750
6932
7216
6956
7258
7673
2025 2030
23.85 23.85
23.85 23.85
26.65 26.65
26.65 26.65
26.65 26.65
26.32 26.32
26.32 26.32
26.32 26.32
29.03 29.03
29.03 29.03
EFF
(mpg)
6.0
7.2
8.4
5.6
6.0
5.6
5.6
5.6
5.6
6.4
7.0
7.7
6.9
7.6
8.3
continued
2035
23.85
23.85
26.65
26.65
26.65
26.32
26.32
26.32
29.03
29.03
-------
TBGSL Bus, Gasoline
TBGSL1 OP Bus, Gasoline + 1 0% MPG
TBGSL20P Bus, Gasoline + 20% MPG
TBEGSL Bus, Existing Gasoline Fleet
TBDSL Bus, Diesel
TBDSL1 OP Bus, Diesel + 1 0% MPG
TBDSL20P Bus, Diesel + 20% MPG
TBEDSL Bus, Existing Diesel Fleet
TBCNG Bus, Compressed Natural Gas
TBALC Bus, Alcohol Fuel
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
IECHELC095
IEISELC095
IELPELC095
IENFELC095
IENMELC095
IEOIELC095
IMCHCOA095
IMCHDST095
IMCHELC095
IMCHHF0095
IMCHLPG095
IMCHNGA095
IMISCOA095
IMISDST095
IMISELC095
IMISHFO095
IMISLPG095
IMISNGA095
IMLPDST095
IMLPELC095
IMLPHF0095
IMLPNGA095
IMNFDST095
IMNFELC095
RESID
PJ/a
149.0178738
8.636712775
0
360.6244699
0
83.233584
0
0
2316.163525
0
0
272.8648467
0
0
436.6721979
0
0
8.392043243
0
1 733.695265
0
74.3008107
0
33.35255213
FIXOM
95million$/PJ/a
1
17.80524207
0
5.280005828
0
0
0.55
0.55
0.7425
0.66
1
1
0.55
2.564060403
0.182454084
1
1
2.848956003
2.564060403
0.182454084
1
2.848956003
2.564060403
0.182454084
START LIFE
1995 15
2000 1 5
2005 1 5
1995 15
1995 15
2000 15
2005 15
1995 15
1995 15
1995 15
INVCOST
95million$/PJ/a
10
144.7271013
0
81 .47506288
0
0
25.64060403
1 .824540844
2.46313014
2.189449013
10
10
28.48956003
25.64060403
1 .824540844
10
10
28.48956003
25.64060403
1 .824540844
10
28.48956003
25.64060403
1 .824540844
INVCOST FIXOM EFF
(1999$/vehicle) (1999$/vehicle) (mpg)
134717 6736 6.1
161667 8083 7.3
188601 9431 8.6
134717 6736 6.1
134717 6736 6.7
161667 8083 8.0
188601 9431 9.5
134717 6736 6.7
134717 6736 6.1
134717 6736 4.0
LIFE
yrs
30
30
30
30
30
30
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
continued
-------
to
to
IMNFHFO095
IMNFLPG095
IMNMDST095
IMNMELC095
IMNMHF0095
IMNMNGA095
IMOIDST095
IMOIELC095
IMOIHFO095
IMOILPG095
IMOINGA095
IOCHBI0095
IOCHCOA095
IOCHCOK095
IOCHDST095
IOCHELC095
IOCHETH095
IOCHHFO095
IOCHLPG095
IOCHNAP095
IOCHNGA095
IOISBFG095
IOISBI0095
IOISCOA095
IOISDST095
IOISELC095
IOISHFO095
IOISNGA095
IOLPBIO095
IOLPCOA095
IOLPCOK095
IOLPDST095
IOLPELC095
IOLPHFO095
IOLPLPG095
IOLPNGA095
IONFBI0095
IONFCOA095
IONFCOK095
IONFDST095
RESID
PJ/a
0
0
0
398.415888
0
40.31251601
302.1947616
4661 .080704
0
9.7384968
227.1881068
0
0
0
250.08
172.4349683
0
141.52
0
0
1585.80828
1 91 .8548765
0
0
4.106666667
34.546851 1
43.74
69.4966081 1
809.8652844
167.2779209
0
73.9648
63.7387965
193.5576
1 1 .042685
1082.980754
0
0
0
61 .49333333
FIXOM
95million$/PJ/a
1
2.848956003
2.564060403
0.182454084
1
2.848956003
2.564060403
0.182454084
1
1
2.848956003
0.532883935
0.532883935
0.532883935
0.532883935
0.435995946
0.532883935
0.532883935
0.435995946
0.532883935
0.479595541
0.532883935
0.532883935
0.532883935
0.532883935
0.479595541
0.532883935
0.532883935
1 .332209836
1 .332209836
1 .332209836
0.532883935
0.343960653
0.532883935
0.479595541
0.479595541
0.532883935
0.308633681
0.308633681
0.293936839
INVCOST
95million$/PJ/a
10
28.48956003
25.64060403
1 .824540844
10
28.48956003
25.64060403
1 .824540844
10
10
28.48956003
3.086336814
3.086336814
3.086336814
2.939368394
2.777703132
3.086336814
3.086336814
2.658792759
3.086336814
2.658792759
3.256085339
3.086336814
3.256085339
3.256085339
2.805026361
3.256085339
3.101033656
3.517353333
3.517353333
3.517353333
2.791550265
2.29307102
2.931127778
2.522378122
2.522378122
3.086336814
3.086336814
3.086336814
2.939368394
LIFE
yrs
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
continued
-------
to
IONFELC095
IONFHFO095
IONFNGA095
IONMBIO095
IONMCOA095
IONMCOK095
IONMDST095
IONMELC095
IONMHFO095
IONMLPG095
IONMNGA095
IOOIBI0095
IOOICOA095
IOOICOK095
IOOIDST095
IOOIELC095
IOOIHF0095
IOOILPG095
IOOINGA095
IOOIPTC095
IPCHCOA095
IPCHCOK095
IPCHDST095
IPCHELC095
IPCHHFO095
IPCHLPG095
IPCHNGA095
IPISBFG095
IPISCOA095
IPISDST095
IPISELC095
IPISHFO095
IPISLPG095
IPISNGA095
IPLPBI0095
IPLPCOA095
IPLPDST095
IPLPELC095
IPLPHFO095
IPLPLPG095
IPLPNGA095
RESID
PJ/a
1 0.42267254
0
22.087975
0
229.3279507
0
17.728
15.25101468
0
3.7942875
46.19142459
1413.273181
229.0242978
0
314.78621
312.12594
195.12
18.2596815
2768.855051
0
0
0
0
44.7053621 5
0
0
1394.934072
82.2235185
44.4481155
1 .026666667
134.7327193
8.1
4.867155
519.2576757
0
0
0
31 .86939825
28.9224
0
133.2770792
FIXOM
95million$/PJ/a
0.370360418
0.308633681
0.265879276
0.532883935
0.532883935
0.532883935
0.532883935
0.4370881 48
0.532883935
0.479595541
0.479595541
0.532883935
1 .332209836
1 .332209836
0.532883935
0.506239738
0.532883935
0.479595541
0.479595541
1 .332209836
0.55
0.55
0.55
0.55
0.55
0.55
0.55
2.637627067
2.637627067
2.392405503
2.386424489
2.512025778
0.55
2.2608232
5.426002005
5.426002005
4.921 543769
4.909239909
5.167620957
4.650858861
4.650858861
INVCOST
95million$/PJ/a
3.703604177
3.086336814
2.658792759
3.086336814
3.708288202
3.708288202
3.53170305
2.913920989
3.708288202
3.205313088
3.205313088
3.086336814
3.703604177
3.703604177
2.939368394
2.932019973
3.086336814
2.658792759
2.658792759
3.703604177
3.438622354
3.438622354
3.118931841
3.111134511
3.274878433
2.947390589
2.947390589
20.9512423
20.9512423
1 9.00339438
1 8.95588589
19.9535641
5.5
1 7.95820769
122.9897887
122.9897887
1 1 1 .5553639
1 1 1 .2764755
117.1331321
105.4198189
105.4198189
LIFE
yrs
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
continued
-------
to
IPNFCOA095
IPNFCOK095
IPNFDST095
IPNFELC095
IPNFHFO095
IPNFLPG095
IPNFNGA095
IPNMCOA095
IPNMCOK095
IPNMDST095
IPNMELC095
IPNMHFO095
IPNMLPG095
IPNMNGA095
IPNMPTC095
IPOICOA095
IPOICOK095
IPOIDST095
IPOIELC095
IPOIHF0095
IPOILPG095
IPOINGA095
ISCHCOA095
ISCHDST095
ISCHELC095
ISCHHFO095
ISCHNGA095
ISISBFG095
ISISCOA095
ISISDST095
ISISHFO095
ISISNGA095
ISLPBIO095
ISLPCOA095
ISLPDST095
ISLPELC095
ISLPHFO095
ISLPNGA095
ISNFCOA095
ISNFDST095
ISNFHF0095
RESID
PJ/a
0
0
15.37333333
0
0
4.60548
375.495575
767.7500957
0
1 41 .824
24.900993
9.68
3.7942875
516.5041114
0
0
0
157.393105
208.08396
0
30.4328025
709.9628336
213.21279
0
17.03061415
0
1077.247676
0
2.3393745
1 .026666667
2.16
87.8542027
0
14.54590616
7.3152
0
0
93.29395544
0
15.37333333
0
FIXOM
95million$/PJ/a
23.52764423
23.52764423
21 .34026688
21.28691621
22.40728022
0.4
20.1665522
3.362440329
3.362440329
3.049832498
3.042207917
3.202324123
2.882091711
2.882091711
3.362440329
2.23001031
2.23001031
2.022685088
2.017628376
2.123819343
1.911437408
1.911437408
0.55
0.55
0.55
0.55
0.55
1 .332209836
1 .332209836
0.532883935
0.532883935
0.479595541
4.157909991
1 .332209836
0.532883935
0.343960653
0.532883935
0.479595541
1 .332209836
0.532883935
0.532883935
INVCOST
95million$/PJ/a
235.2764423
235.2764423
213.4026688
212.8691621
224.0728022
201 .665522
201 .665522
37.3604481 1
37.3604481 1
33.88702776
33.80231019
35.58137915
32.02324123
32.02324123
37.3604481 1
22.0998663
22.0998663
20.0452302
19.99511713
21.04749171
1 8.94274254
1 8.94274254
3.703604177
2.939368394
2.777703132
3.086336814
2.658792759
3.907302406
3.907302406
3.101033656
3.256085339
2.805026361
1 3.85969997
3.517353333
2.791550265
2.29307102
2.931127778
2.522378122
3.703604177
2.939368394
3.086336814
LIFE
yrs
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
continued
-------
ISNFNGA095
ISNMCOA095
ISNMDST095
ISNMELC095
ISNMHF0095
ISNMNGA095
ISOICOA095
ISOIDST095
ISOIELC095
ISOIHF0095
ISOILPG095
ISOINGA095
RESID
PJ/a
44.17595
0
17.728
1.349647317
0
27.99480278
28.30637388
220.350347
20.808396
0
9.12984075
0
FIXOM
95million$/PJ/a
0.479595541
1 .332209836
0.532883935
0.4370881 48
0.532883935
0.479595541
1 .332209836
0.532883935
0.506239738
0.532883935
0.479595541
0.479595541
INVCOST
95million$/PJ/a
2.658792759
4.449945842
3.53170305
2.913920989
3.708288202
3.205313088
3.703604177
2.939368394
2.932019973
3.086336814
2.658792759
2.658792759
LIFE
yrs
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
INDUSTRIAL COGEN
to
EAELCBFGOO
EAELCBIOOO
EAELCCOAOO
EAELCCOKOO
EAELCETHOO
EAELCHFOOO
EAELCLPGOO
EAELCNAPOO
EAELCNGAOO
EAELCOILOO
EAELCPTCOO
EAUTELCOO
ESTMBFGOOO
ESTMBIOOOO
ESTMCOAOOO
ESTMCOKOOO
ESTMETHOOO
ESTMHFOOOO
ESTMLPGOOO
ESTMNAPOOO
ESTMNGAOOO
ESTMOILOOO
ESTMPTCOOO
LIFE
yrs
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
RESID
gw
0.0244618
3.9328115
1 .4758643
0
0
0.2349967
0
0
2.0622962
0
0
3.0631115
0.3937748
59.970291
9.2036518
0
0
0
0
0
30.996367
0
0
-------
to
-------
Appendix C
Peer Review Comments and Responses
127
-------
General and Documentation
COM M ENT: Update data and calibration on a regular ba-
sis (every 2 years) and adjust the starting year from 1995
to 2000.
RESPONSE: The model is currently being updated from
2002 NEMS data to 2005 NEMS data, with the model time
frame running from 2000 to 2040. Once this is complete,
the model data will be updated and the model will be
recalibrated every 2 years.
COM M ENT: Growth bounds should be imposed on major
technologies
RESPONSE: In our base model we are attempting to con-
strain the model runs as little as possible. In certain cases
we have bound the growth of classes of technologies; for
example, car classes are constrained over the model time
horizon so that subcompact cars do not take over the whole
sector. We have also implemented constraints in the elec-
tric sector to keep IGCC plants from coming on too fast.
Where appropriate, as we do technology assessment, we
will add constraints to certain technologies based on our
research results. Current model runs with a minimum of
constraints calibrate well to the AEO 2002.
COMMENT: Include nuclear energy supply in primary
energy tables so that there will be proper accounting in the
total primary energy supply tables in ANSWER.
RESPONSE: Nuclear tracking has been added to the pri-
mary energy supply table.
COMMENT: Documentation
• Provide link to ETSAP's MARKAL documentation
web page to our documentation
• Add "systems and software" requirements section
• Add data summaries as an appendix
• Correct table numbering errors
• Too much variation in style
RESPONSE: Corrected and improved document accord-
ing to comments.
COM M ENT: In certain model run, the model is importing
a large volume of electricity.
RESPONSE: Our imported electricity is represented in
three cost steps with three import technologies. In addi-
tion, we have a dummy imported electricity technology in
the model which is used to debug any problems. It was
found that the cost was set too low on this dummy technol-
ogy, and under certain emissions constraints the model was
using a large volume of this dummy import. We reset the
cost to a much higher value, causing the model to stop
importing this resource.
COMMENT: The SOX limit is set at 4,500 thousand met-
ric tons after 2010. What is the basis for this limit?
RESPONSE: This limit is based on the CAAA90 (Clean
Air Amendment Acts of 1990).
Electric Sector
COMMENT: Existing steam coal capacity is, on average,
dispatched at a very low rate.
RESPONSE: We have since done a major overhaul of
our representation of the existing steam coal technologies
which has resulted in the model now dispatching these tech-
nologies at an appropriate rate. We found two main causes
for the low dispatch which we have since resolved.
1 We had residual capacity for existing steam electric
technologies, but not for the retrofit technologies that
were needed to minimize the NOX and SOX emissions.
In order for the model to utilize these retrofits, it was
having to pay the capital costs, and thus, it was finding
other electric generation technologies more cost effec-
tive. Our model now includes residual capacity for both
the existing steam electric plants and their retrofits.
2 Our representation of the existing steam electric plant
retrofits was very limited. Our model now includes a
wide variety of retrofit options along with the appro-
priate residual capacities and costs.
COMMENT: Results lean towards baseload generating
technologies in meeting seasonal demands.
RESPONSE: This is a weakness of MARKAL in gen-
eral; the limitation to 6 time slices tends to wash out sea-
sonal demands. One option we considered was to treat the
seasonal/day-night slices in MARKAL as slabs of a load
duration curve. Instead, we have decided to push develop-
ment in MARKAL to include more time slices, in order to
better capture the variation in dispatch associated with sea-
son and time of day.
COM MENT: Not clear how FR(z)(y) electricity shape load
data were derived
RESPONSE: The current electricity load data were from
the original 1997 DOE database. However, with the ex-
pansion of time slices in MARKAL, we will be mapping
NEMS demand data into the new MARKAL time slices.
At that time, we will carefully assess different ways to per-
form this NEMS to MARKAL data mapping.
128
-------
COMMENT: There are no carbon sequestering technolo-
gies.
RESPONSE: Carbon sequestration was not a focus of
our base model development. We are currently doing an
intensive technology assessment of the electric sector, and
in that assessment carbon sequestration will be closely
looked at and added as an alternative scenario to our base
scenario.
Demand Side
COM M ENT: Use the EFF_I (efficiency tied to investment
vintage) parameter for end-use technologies.
RESPON SE: This parameter would help to minimize the
number of technologies needed to represent different effi-
ciencies of the same technology type, mainly in the trans-
portation sector where we have a different technology for
each time period. The problem with using EFF_I in this
case is although it ties efficiency to investment vintage, it
does not tie emissions, which change overtime. If we were
counting our emissions at the fuel level, this would not be
a problem, but we account for emissions at the technology
level. Therefore, EFF_I would not be useful.
COM M ENT: Reduce the level of technology detail in mi-
nor energy demands in the Commercial Sector.
RESPONSE: We had a large variety of technologies
within the smaller Commercial sub-demands that were
competing with each other inappropriately. For example,
Walk-In Freezers were competing with Ice Machines to
meet the Commercial Freezing demand. We have since
implemented constraints that line up with the AEO distrib-
uted results for each sub-demand area. In our example, we
now have various Walk-In Freezers competing against each
other for the share of Freezing demand that the AEO says
is met by Walk-In Freezers only. We have implemented
these constraints in the following sub-demands: Lighting,
Refrigeration, Freezing, Cooking, and Ventillation.
COMMENT: The Residential and Commercial shell/con-
servation packages are not modeled in the database. While
improvements in new and existing building shells overtime
may be implicit in the specification of the service demands,
it may be more transparent to represent them separately
and allow the model to endogenously respond to changes
in fuel prices.
RESPONSE: As stated in the reviewers comment, the
building shell improvements are implicit in the calculation
of the service demands. As the Residential and Commer-
cial sectors are not our areas of focus for our current tech-
nology assessment, we prefer to keep the model as is. We
will look into this in future model development.
COM M ENT: Add compact fluorescent lighting in the resi-
dential sector
RESPONSE: Our model currently represents three types
of residential lighting: incandescent, baseline fluorescent,
and electric ballast fluorescent. The data for these tech-
nologies came from the 1997 DOE MARKAL model. In
future model development, we will develop more up-to-
date technology representations for Residential Lighting
COMMENT: Investigate sources other than NEMS/AEO
for emerging technologies
RESPONSE: Our base model is set up primarily using
data from the NEMS AEO. As we do in-depth technology
assessment, alternative data sources are investigated and
used. This is evidenced in our hydrogen fuel cell technol-
ogy assessment in the transportation sector, where the bulk
of the hydrogen data came from sources other than the AEO.
Supply Side
COMMENT: Examine reducing the number of coal sup-
ply steps for the single region model or including appro-
priate coal delivery costs to enable the different coal sup-
ply regions to correctly compete.
RESPONSE: We are developing the coal delivery costs
to input into our model.
COMMENT: Increase the number of supply steps for natu-
ral gas, both domestic and import
RESPONSE: The data we currently have available to us
limit the number of supply steps we are able to develop for
natural gas. Our future model development includes in-
vesting the resources needed to develop better supply step
representations for natural gas and renewables.
COM M ENT: Expand representation of renewable genera-
tion technologies
• Geothermal: no capacity or growth constraints
• Wind resources: low average capacity factors, is the
set of technologies to small
RESPONSE: We are in the process of updating and re-
viewing our representation of renewables. We are investi-
gating novel techniques for representing intermittent
renewables coupled with storage in MARKAL. In addi-
tion, we are reviewing and updating the geothermal and
biomass resource supply.
129
-------
Technical Report Data
(Please read instructions on the reverse before completing)
1.REPORT NO.
EPA-600/R-06/057
3. RECIPIENT'S ACCESSION NO.
4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE
EPA U.S. National MARKAL Database: Database
Documentation
5. REPORT DATE
February 2006
6. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION CODE
/.AUTHORS
8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO.
Carpi Shay, Joseph DeCarolis, Dan Loughlin, Cynthia Gage,
Sonia Yeh, Samudra Vijay, and Evelyn Wright
9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS
10. PROGRAM ELEMENT NO.
See Block 12
11. CONTRACT/GRANT NO.
In-house
12. SPONSORING AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS
U. S. EPA, Office of Research and Development
Air Pollution Prevention and Control Division
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711
13. TYPE OF REPORT AND PERIOD COVERED
Final: 0172002-0172006
14. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE
EPA/600/13
15. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES
The EPA Project is Carol L. Shay, Mail Drop E 305-02, Phone (919) 541-1868, e-mail
shay.carol ©epa.gov
16.ABSTRACT
This document describes the database used in EPA's National Model, which is a MARKAL model
developed to aid in technology assessment as part of a larger Air Quality Assessment being performed
by EPA's Office of Research and Development. The MARKAL (MARket Allocation) model was developed
in the late 1970s at Brookhaven National Laboratory. In 1978, the International Energy Agency adopted
MARKAL and created the Energy Technology and Systems Analysis Program (ETSAP), which is a group
of modelers and developers that meet every six months to discuss model developments, extensions, and
applications. MARKAL is a dynamic, data-driven energy/economic model of a region over a time span of
several decades. The economy is modeled as a system of processes that have material, energy, and
monetary flows between them and that represent all activities necessary to provide products and services
for that region. Each process can choose from among a set of alternate technologies to complete the
process, and each technology is characterized quantitatively by energy, emission, and monetary
characteristics. Both the supply and demand sides are integrated, so that one side responds automatically
to changes in the other. The model selects that combination of technologies that minimizes total energy
system cost. The characteristics and constraints associated with the alternate technologies for each
process are put into the model as a database, which is defined by the user. This document describes that
database for the U.S. EPA MARKAL model.
17. KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS
DESCRIPTORS
b. IDENTIFICATION/OPEN ENDED TERMS
c. COSATI Field/Group
Air Pollution
Software
Database
Energy System
MARKAL
Pollution Control
Stationary Sources
18. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT
19.SECURITY CLASS (ThisReport)
Unclassified
21. NO. OF PAGES
142
Release to Public
20. SECURITY CLASS (This Page)
Unclassified
22. PRICE
EPA Form 2220-1 (Rev. 4-77) PREVIOUS EDITION IS OBSOLETE
forms/adminAechrpt.frm 7/8/99 pad
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