Potential Stranded Capital Analysis

            on EPA Light-Duty Technology

            Cost Analysis
&EPA
United States
Environmental Protection
Agency

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        Potential  Stranded Capital Analysis
           on EPA Light-Duty Technology
                         Cost Analysis
                      Assessment and Standards Division
                     Office of Transportation and Air Quality
                     U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
                            Prepared for EPA by
                                FEV, Inc.
                        EPA Contract No. EP-C-07-069
                          Work Assignment No. 3-3
      NOTICE

      This technical report does not necessarily represent final EPA decisions or
      positions. It is intended to present technical analysis of issues using data
      that are currently available. The purpose in the release of such reports is to
      facilitate the exchange of technical information and to inform the public of
      technical developments.
United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
EPA-420-R-11-019
November 2011

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                                         CONTENTS
Section                                                                              Page

    Executive Summary	1-1
    1    Introduction	1-3
         1.1   Objectives	1-3
         1.2   Capital Investment and Tooling Definitions	1-5
         1.3   Case Studies Evaluated	1-6
    2    Methodology for Developing Stranded Capital Investment and Tooling Values	2-7
         2.1   Analysis Set-up:	2-7
         2.2   Stranded Capital & Tooling Case Study Steps	2-11
    3    Key Assumptions in the Stranded Capital and Tooling Analysis	3-13
    4    Case Study Results	4-13
    5    Glossary of Terms	5-15

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                                LIST OF FIGURES
Number                                                                      Page
Figure 2-1: Sample Stranded Capital Section of SCTA Worksheet	2-9
Figure 2-2: Sample Stranded Tooling Section of SCTA Worksheet	2-10
Figure 2-3: Stranded Capital and Tooling Case Study Steps	2-12
                                         11

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                                        LIST OF TABLES

Number                                                                      Page

Table ES-1:  Potential  Stranded  Capital  Analysis  Results  ($/New  Vehicle  Technology
Configuration)	1-2

Table 4-1: Summary of Potential Stranded Capital and Tooling Estimates	4-14
                                         111

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   Potential Stranded Capital Analysis on EPA Light-Duty Technology Cost
                                    Analyses

Executive Summary

The United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) contracted with FEV, Inc. to
determine incremental direct manufacturing costs (IDMC) for a set of advanced light-
duty vehicle technologies.  The technologies  selected are on  the  leading  edge for
reducing emissions of greenhouse gases in the future, primarily in the form of tailpipe
carbon  dioxide  (CO2).    Examples  of technologies evaluated  include:  downsized
turbocharged gasoline direct-injection (GDI)  engines, advanced transmissions (e.g., 8-
speed automatic, 6-speed dual clutch), and hybrid electric vehicles.

To develop  incremental  direct  manufacturing  costs, advance  vehicle technology
configurations  were evaluated  against baseline  vehicle  technology configurations,
representative of the  current  state  of design,  and having  similar overall driving
performance. For each  case study, both the new and baseline configurations utilized a
common  set of boundary  conditions  for  the analysis  (e.g.,  technology  maturity,
production year, production volumes, manufacturing location, equipment life).  Using the
same boundary  conditions  for both analyses, a consistent framework for all costing work
was established. A detailed description of the costing methodology used to develop the
incremental direct manufacturing  costs  can be found  in EPA  report "Light-Duty
Technology Cost Analysis  Pilot Study (EPA-420-R-09-020)."

In selected cases where the boundary conditions and parameters assumed in the primary
analysis differ,  an adjustment can be made to  the incremental direct manufacturing cost
accounting for these differences.  Examples of case study specific parameter adjustments
are volume differences, technology  maturity differences, timeframe differences,  and
production duration differences.

Using conservative assumptions, this report investigates the potential saddling of cost
onto a new technology configuration as a result of the production  equipment and/or
tooling  for the baseline  configuration being  abandoned before  the planned fully
depreciated life.  An applicable scenario is when a new technology configuration is
launched into production forcing a baseline technology out of production prematurely. In
this case any production equipment and/or tooling, which can only be used to produce the
baseline technology, and which cannot be redispositioned to another plant  continuing to
make  the baseline technology,  would be removed from service and sold for scrap.  It is
assumed the  financial loss associated with abandoning capital investment and tooling
from the baseline technology configuration would indirectly be recovered by the new
replacing technology over some number of years  of its production.
                                      1-1

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Within the context of this report, the term stranded capital and stranded tooling will be
used to define capital investment and tooling which has been decommissioned prior to
the end of its fully depreciated life.  In the FEV analysis, the fully depreciated life and
useful life are assumed to be the same as a means of simplifying the analysis.

The foundation for the stranded capital and tooling analysis are the previously completed
EPA Light-Duty Vehicle Technology Cost Analysis case studies.  For each case study,
the FEV manufacturing team assembled  a cost estimate for the total capital investment
and tooling, which could only be used to  manufacture the baseline technology.  Any
baseline  technology  capital investment or tooling, or portion of capital investment or
tooling, which could be used to manufacture other products, was not included in the cost
estimate.  Using a straight-line depreciation method, the estimated stranded capital and
tooling impact was calculated for three,  five, and eight years.  The average useful life
used in the calculation was ten years with an assumption of zero residual value.  The sum
of the stranded capital and tooling for each of the evaluated periods (i.e.,  3, 5, and 8
years) was then divided by 2,250,000  new technology vehicle units; 2,250,000 vehicle
units representing the sale of 450,000 units/year over five years (450,000 x 5).

Table ES-1 the results for six case studies are presented, showing the potential stranded
capital impact at three, five and eights years of product life, based on the methodology
and set of conservative  assumptions described in the report.  The table includes the
results  for two  dual  clutch  transmission  (DCT) studies,  an  8-speed  automatic
transmission (AT) study, two downsized (DS), turbocharged (T), gasoline direct injection
(GDI) studies, and a powersplit hybrid electrical vehicle (HEV) study.
               Table ES- 1: Potential Stranded Capital Analysis Results
                     ($/New Vehicle Technology Configuration)
Replaced
Technology
Conventional V6
Conventional V8
6-speed AT
6-speed AT
6-speed DCT
Conventional V6
New
technology
DSTGDI 14
DSTGDI V6
6-speed DCT
8-speed AT
8-speed DCT
Power-split HEV
Potential Stranded capital cost per vehicle
with new technology,
with product life ended after:
3 years
$56
$60
$55
$48
$28
$111
5 years
$40
$43
$39
$34
$20
$79
8 years
$16
$17
$16
$14
$8
$32
                                        1-2

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1   Introduction

1.1  Objectives

The objective of this work assignment is to determine the potential magnitude of stranded
capital investment and tooling costs, associated with the launch of a new advanced
vehicle technology configurations, prematurely replacing existing/baseline  technology
configurations.  The case studies investigated in this analysis are based on advanced
technologies considered leading edge for reducing emissions of greenhouse gases in the
future. Further, the case studies selected for this analysis are the same for which FEV has
previously  developed incremental direct manufacturing  costs as part of  prior  work
assignments completed for EPA.

In the original incremental  direct manufacturing  case  studies,  the  same boundary
conditions  and  parameters were employed  for both  the baseline  and  new  technology
configurations evaluated.  This methodology provides a common framework  for costing,
allowing  a good means of comparison. As part of these established boundary conditions,
it was assumed both the baseline and new technology configurations  would  run their
planned full production life cycle.  Additional details on the incremental cost analyses
can be found in  the  following  published  reports  and in reports being prepared for
subsequent case studies.

   •  Light-Duty Vehicle Technology Cost Analysis - Pilot Study (EPA-420-R-09-020)

   •  Light-Duty  Vehicle  Technology  Cost Analysis - Report  on Additional Case
      Studies (EPA-420-R-10-010)

   •  Light-Duty  Technology Cost Analysis, Power-Split and P2 HEV Case Studies
      (EPA-420-R-11-015)

To  understand  the tooling and capital  investment  financial impact  of the baseline
technology not running a full production life cycle, the potential result of a new advance
replacement technology being regulated  into production  too  quickly,  EPA contracted
with FEV to conduct a potential stranded capital investment and tooling analysis.  It is
recognized that an accurate analysis would need to know just how quickly the  new
technologies (government standards) were phasing in, and would also be very specific to
individual companies, factories, and manufacturing processes, particularly in regard to
finding alternative  uses for equipment and facilities.  Such a thorough analysis would be
a prohibitively large undertaking. Nevertheless, in order to account for the possibility of
stranded  capital costs, FEV  has performed  a bounding analysis, using conservative
assumptions,  of the potential stranded  capital costs  associated with rapid phase-in of
technologies due to new standards, using data from FEV's primary teardown-based cost
analyses.
                                       1
                                        -o

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A planned production life of 10 years was assumed for all equipment and tooling.  The
cost impact of canceling production of the baseline technology after three, five and eight
years was evaluated.   For each production  run scenario (i.e., 3, 5,  and 8 years) total
potential stranded capital  investment  and tooling values  were developed.   For this
analysis, the assumption is the  early  introduction of the new advance technology is
responsible  for  prematurely ending the production  life  of the baseline  technology.
Therefore, the new technology should be accountable for recovering the stranded capital
investment and  tooling from the baseline technology configuration.  Amortizing  the
combined total  stranded  capital  investment and  tooling by 2,250,000 new advance
vehicle units (450,000 units per year x 5 years), an added cost per vehicle was established
for each production run scenario.
A simple, three-year baseline product cancellation example to illustrate the above:

   •  $100,000,000 of dedicated baseline technology production equipment is identified
      to produce part "ABC."

   •  Assuming a straight line depreciation, and 10-year useful life, depreciated value
      per year is equal to $10,000,000.

   •  Following three years of manufacturing, the baseline technology is replaced by a
      new technology configuration "XYZ."

   •  Part "ABC" is  used in no other product made at this factory or another factory,
      and the equipment used to make part "ABC" is not reconfigurable to make some
      other part.

   •  Remaining value of baseline equipment at point of cancellation  $70,000,000 (7
      years x $10,000,000 depreciation expense/year).

   •  Amortization volume based on estimated new vehicle technology configuration
      sales over five years equals 2,250,000 vehicle units (450,000 units/year x 5 years).

   •  Estimated additional cost per new vehicle technology unit, accounting for baseline
      stranded capital and tooling equals $31.1 I/vehicle ($70,000,000 stranded  capital
      and tooling 72,250,000 vehicle units).
                                        1-4

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1.2  Capital Investment and Tooling Definitions

Capital investment is defined as the facilities, machines, and other equipment used in the
manufacturing process that are not directly in contact with the part produced.  Simple
examples  of capital investment include stamping  presses, injection mold  machines,
welding equipment, and diecast machines.  Tooling, on the other hand, is generally the
part-contacting components of the manufacturing process.  In relationship to the example
listed for capital investment, a stamping die, injection mold, weld tips, and diecast molds
would all be examples of tooling.  There are grey areas  as to what constitutes  tooling
versus capital equipment, especially for component assembly processes.  Generally, the
OEM (original equipment manufacturer) will have detailed definitions for the less clear-
cut manufacturing operations.  For  this analysis,  a deeper understanding of what  is
considered capital investment versus tooling is not required.
All capital investment and tooling  has  a  useful life expectancy, typically  based on
anticipated service hours or units produced.  For example, assume a progressive stamping
die has a purchased financed value of $250,000. The life expectancy of the stamping die
is  eight years, producing 450,000 engine brackets per year with a zero dollar residual
value at end of the die's life.   The company that owns the die is using a straight-line
depreciation method to expense the die. If, after four years, the part produced by the die
is  considered  obsolete,  approximately  half the  value  of  the  die  ($125,000)  is
unrecoverable (i.e., stranded  tooling).   Because the majority  of tooling is  generally
considered dedicated, stranded tooling is generally more prevalent  in  comparison to
stranded capital investment.  This is especially true when automotive part and  vehicle
manufactures purchase production equipment with higher flexibility; a trend which has
been growing over the last several decades.   For the incremental direct manufacturing
case studies,  FEV assumed a flexible manufacturing environment when  developing the
cost models.  FEV also assumed multiple manufacturing facilities and/or production lines
existed, producing similar products, facilitating the ramping down of baseline production
components and the ramping up of new technology components.

In the previous engine bracket example, the progressive stamping die would be run on a
400-ton stamping press (capital investment).  Since  the stamping press can run several
different parts, simply by  switching out the production dies, the stamping press would not
become stranded upon deletion of the engine bracket. The terminology used within this
analysis to identify capital investment, which can be utilized to produce several different
parts, is referred to as flexible capital investment.

In comparison, dedicated  capital investment is production equipment constructed to only
manufacture one part.  If the part becomes obsolete, independent the reason, the capital
becomes stranded. In some cases where a portion of the capital equipment can be reused,
the equipment is considered semi-dedicated.  Therefore, only a defined portion becomes
stranded.
                                       1-5

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More discussion on the designation of dedicated,  semi-dedicated, and flexible capital
investment and tooling will be covered in the methodology section (Section 2.1).
1.3   Case Studies Evaluated

The  specific  cases evaluated within  this report include those  previously studied  for
developing incremental  direct manufacturing costs  for a set  of advance light-duty
technologies:  technologies aimed toward reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This work
was completed by FEV for EPA.
The six advance technology configurations analyzed were:

   •  A 2.0L, 14, 4-valve, dual overhead cam (DOHC), dual variable valve timing (d-
      VVT), turbocharged, gasoline direct injection (GDI) engine, compared to an
      equivalent conventional 3.0L, V6, 4-valve, DOHC, d-VVT, naturally aspirated
      (NA),  port fuel injected (PFI) engine.
   •  A 3.5L, V6, 4-valve, dual overhead cam (DOHC), d-VVT,  turbocharged, GDI
      engine, compared to an equivalent conventional 5.4L, V8, 3-valve, single
      overhead cam (SOHC), VVT, NA, PFI engine.
   •  A 6-speed wet dual clutch transmission (DCT), compared to an equivalent 6-speed
      automatic transmission.
   •  An 8-speed automatic transmission, compared to an equivalent 6-speed automatic
      transmission.
   •  An 8-speed wet DCT, compared to an equivalent 6-speed wet DCT.
   •  An 2.5L NA PFI engine, electronically control continuously variable transmission
      (eCVT) power-split hybrid electric vehicle (HEV), compared to a conventional
      3.0L NA PFI engine, 6-Speed AT baseline vehicle.
                                      1-6

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2   Methodology for Developing Stranded Capital Investment and
    Tooling Values

FEV assembled a cross function team (CFT) of manufacturing experts (employees and
those  otherwise under contract) to perform the analysis.  The CFT, with an average
relevant experience level of 24 years, employed technology expertise from several areas,
including:  design  and  development,  vehicle integration,  production development,
manufacturing  engineering  (supplier  and  OEM),  cost  estimating,  and  product
benchmarking.

The core members of the CFT first developed the methodology and tools required to
conduct the analysis as discussed in detail in Section 2.1. Following the analysis set-up,
the first case study was selected  for the evaluation.  The  study steps  are presented in
Section 2.2 along with the aid of Figure 2-2.  The same process steps were repeated for
all technologies evaluated.

2.1  Analysis Set-up:

1) Determine and define the conditions for establishing "Stranded Capital & Tooling."
   Determination based on input from EPA and other sources reviewing prior "Light-
   Duty Vehicle Technology Cost Analysis"  studies. Examples of established analysis
   boundary conditions include:
   •  Average investment and tooling fully depreciated life of 10 years
   •  Production life duration for baseline equipment: 3, 5,  and 8 years
   •  Total new vehicle technology  configuration  amortization volume  (5 years  x
      450,000 vehicle units/year)
2) Determine case studies to best represent the impact of Stranded Capital losses in total
   effort to implement emission reduction technologies.
3) Develop  stranded capital and  tooling analysis (SCTA)  worksheet (Figure 2-1 &
   Figure 2-2).  Key worksheet data fields include:
   A. Component/Assembly Name
   B. Investment & Tooling description
   C. Investment & Tooling Categorization
   D. Investment & Tooling Value as New (i.e., estimated purchase cost)
   E. Estimated Stranded Capital Investment and Tooling Loss (3, 5, and 8 years)
4) Developed categorization of investment and tooling.

                                      2-7

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A.  Investment Categorization Definitions:
   i)  Flexible : Can be used to manufacture parts in either the baseline or
      new technology configuration (0% stranded)
   ii) Re-Useable : Equipment can be used in alternative industries, equipment
      sold off at defined percent (50% stranded) of remaining value
   iii) Semi-Dedicated : Approx 50% of equipment is flexible (50% stranded)
   iv) Dedicated 
: Custom manufacturing equipment (100% stranded) B. Tooling Categorization Definitions i) Flexible : Can be used to manufacture parts in either the baseline or new technology configuration (0% stranded) ii) Perishable : Frequent replacement of tooling (0% stranded) iii) Semi-Dedicated Tooling : Approx. 50% of tooling is dedicated (50% stranded) iv) Dedicated
: Commodity-specific (100% stranded) 2-8

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Indented Bill of Materials
01 23456789 10 11 12
Ford 3.5L Engine (Surrogate)

OEM Engine Assembly
2 Piston & Rod Assembly
2 Cylinder Head and Camshaft Assembly




2 Block mach ne








2 F B ock cubed mach ne

3 F Block- Trimmed

4 F Block-Cast

5 F Block-Raw Materia

3 F - Liners Cylinder Block

2 F Dowel, Heads

2 F Dowel, Heads

2 F Dowel, A/C Compressor

2 F Dowel, Alternator

2 F Dowel, Bell Housing

2 F Plug, Coolant, Block, Large

2 F Pug, Coolant, Block, Medium

2 F Plug, Coolant, Block, Small

2 F Coolant Diverters

2 F Plastic Protector

1 F Main Bearng, Crank, Top

1 F Thrust Bearing, Crank, Upper


Investment
Description



Investment
Categorization
Flexible :
Re-Useable :
Semi-Dedicated :
Dedicated 
: (Definitions in Comment Box) Investment Value "New" Assembly Equipment f 1 $ 3,000,000 | 1 1 1 Non-sync pallet transfer 1 1 $ 4,500,000 (assemble valve train 1 1 complete and test) 1 1 CMC machines, semi-flex JDD I $ 13,125,000 assembly machines & I I washers, robot load, part I I pallets (rgh. Machine, I I assemble brg. caps, finish I 1 machine, wash, assemble 1 1 plugs, air test & inspect (V tol 1 1 configuration) 1 Included above Trim Press Die Cast Machine NA Commodity Pricing Commodity Pricing Commodity Pricing Commodity Pricing Commodity Pricing Commodity Pricing Commodity Pricing Commodity Pricing Commodity Pricing Stamping press Mold press Bearing manufacturing equip. Bearing manufacturing equip. FLX FLX FLX NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA FLX FLX FLX FLX $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Estimated Stranded Investment Loss Resale Loss 50% 3 Years Remaining Investment Value 70% $ $ $ 2,100,000 $ 3,150,000 $ $ $ 9,187,500 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 5 Years Remaining Investment Value 50% $ $ $ 1,500,000 $ 2,250,000 $ $ $ 6,562,500 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 8 Years Remaining Investment Value 20% $ $ $ 600,000 $ 900,000 $ $ $ 2,625,000 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Figure 2-1: Sample Stranded Capital Section of SCTA Worksheet 2-9

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Indented Bill of Materials
01 23456789 10 11 12
Ford 3.5L Engine (Surrogate)
OEM Engine Assembly
1 Engine Assembly
2 Piston & Rod Assembly
2 Cylinder Head and Camshaft Assembly
2 Block machine
2 F Block cubed machine

5 F Block-Raw Material
3 F - Liners Cylinder Block
2 F Dowel, Heads
2 F Dowel, Heads
2 F Dowel, A/C Compressor
2 F Dowel, Alternator
2 F Dowel, Bell Housing
2 F Plug, Coo ant, Block, Large
2 F Plug, Coo ant, Block, Medium

Tooling
Description


Assembly part pallets,
spindles, multi-spindle
heads, special spindle
columns, part feeders, air
test seals and mounting
plates, gauges
Machining - part pallets,
tooling, machining part
programs, inspection
Drogram, special gauges
Assembly- part pallets,
spindles, multi-spindle
leads, special spindle
columns, part feeders,
gauges
Washers - part programs
Part Handling - dunnage,
robot programs
Dies
Molds
Cast tube
Tooling Categorization
Flexible 
Perishable 
Semi-Dedicated Tooling 
Dedicated 
(Definitions in Comment Box) ™ Tooling Value "New" $ 4,800,000 $ 14,000,000 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Estimated Stranded Tooling Loss 3 Years Remaining Tooling Value 70% $ $ $ 14,560,000 $ 2,240,000 $ 3,360,000 $ $ $ 9,800,000 $ $ $ $ 157,500 $ $ 9,843,750 $ $ $ $ 14,000 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 5 Years Remaining Tooling Value 50% $ $ $ 10,400,000 $ 1,600,000 $ 2,400,000 $ $ $ 7,000,000 $ $ $ $ 112,500 $ $ 7,031,250 $ $ $ $ 10,000 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 8 Years Remaining Tooling Value 20% $ $ $ 4,160,000 $ 640,000 $ 960,000 $ $ $ 2,800,000 $ $ $ 45,000 $ 2,812,500 $ $ $ $ 4,000 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Figure 2-2: Sample Stranded Tooling Section of SCTA Worksheet 2-10

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2.2  Stranded Capital & Tooling Case Study Steps

1) Select case study for stranded capital and tooling evaluation.

2) Transfer component and assembly part names/descriptions from baseline Comparison
   Bills of Materials (CBOM) developed in the prior tear-down studies into the SCTA
   worksheet.

3) CFT team review of stranded capital and tooling SCTA worksheet.  Team members
   are assigned subsystem and system responsibilities based on industry experience.

4) Using the baseline  and new technology CBOMs (developed  in primary teardown
   analyses), identify potential capital investment and tooling in the baseline technology
   configuration, which  is  not  likely to  be transferable  to  the new  technology
   configuration.

5) Based on  Step  4  above, define manufacturing processes  in detail,  identifying
   equipment and tooling requirements. Summarize details in SCTA worksheet.

6) From the categorization menu in the SCTA worksheet, establish categorization codes
   (e.g., flexible, dedicated, semi-dedicated) for investment and tooling items captured in
   Step 5 above.

7) Enter in investment value ($)  for components/assemblies  with capital investment
   identified as re-useable, semi-dedicated,  or dedicated.  For  tooling identified as
   dedicated or semi-dedicated, enter in tooling value ($).

8) The SCTA worksheet automatically calculates the stranded capital and tooling values
   for the three-, five-, and eight-year truncated production periods.

9) At the bottom of the SCTA worksheet,  a combined total stranded capital and tooling
   value is calculated for each of the truncated production periods.

10) An  estimated cost  per  new  advance technology  vehicle is  calculated for  each
   truncated production period, using the values derived  in Step 9 along with the total
   estimated new advance vehicle sales during a five-year period (i.e., 450,000 units/year
   x 5 years = 2,250,000 vehicles)
                                     2-11

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                       CBOM
           1
       Existing unit cost impact:
       DEFINE OF TOOLING & INVESTMENT
                      PARTS SAME OR
                       DIFFERENT?
             SAME
                      DIFFERENT
             No
        Consideration
                                  For New and Baseline
$0
    Define for
    TOOLING
   Flexible
   Perishable
                   Tool & Investment
                       Estimate
DEFINE
RULES
   Define for
 INVESTMENT
- Flexible
- Reusable
             Transfer tooling and investment impact

            (assuming tools were bought then scrapped)
          Analysis based on 3-, 5-, and 8-year value remaining scenarios
Figure 2-3: Stranded Capital and Tooling Case Study Steps
                                         2-12

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3   Key Assumptions in the Stranded Capital and Tooling Analysis

Listed below are the key assumptions made  as part of the  stranded capital and tooling
analysis.

   •  All  manufacturing equipment was  bought brand new  when  the  baseline
      technology started production (i.e., no carryover of equipment used to make the
      previous components that the baseline technology itself replaced).

   •  Manufacturing  equipment and  tooling used to make  the  baseline technology
      components is straight-line depreciated over a 10-year life.

   •  Factory managers  do  not optimize  capital equipment phase-outs (i.e., they are
      assumed to routinely repair and replace equipment without regard to whether or
      not it will soon be scrapped due to adoption of new vehicle technology).

   •  Estimated stranded capital is amortized over five  years of annual production at
      450,000 units (of the new technology components).  This is  the  same annual
      production volumes used in the incremental direct manufacturing cost studies.
4   Case Study Results

The results for the stranded capital and tooling analyses for the six evaluated case studies
are captured below in Table 4-1. In the table, the total stranded capital and tooling values
are present for each technology at each production truncation period.  The "New" column
in the table represents the estimated purchase price of the baseline vehicle technology
capital and tooling prior to  any depreciation.  This value only represents the portion of
equipment and tooling which cannot be used to  manufacture any other component or
assembly without extensive rework and financial burden.

A unit cost, in addition to the total lump sum values, is also present in the table. These
values represent  the total stranded capital and tooling lump sum values  amortized over
five years at 450,000 units/year of the new vehicle  technology configurations.

Because many of the detailed spreadsheet documents generated within this analysis are
too large to be shown in their entirety, electronic copies can be accessed through EPA's
website http;//www.epa.gov/otaq/climate/publications.htni
                                      4-13

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Table 4-1: Summary of Potential Stranded Capital and Tooling Estimates
Summary of Potential Stranded Capital & Tooling Estimates
Component
Engines
3.0L V6 NA PFI to 2.0L 14
Turbo GDI
5.4L V8 NA PFI to 3.5L V6
Turbo GDI
Transmissions
6-Speed AT to 6-Speed DCT
6-Speed AT to 8-Speed AT
6-Speed DCT to 8-Speed
DCT
Fusion Eng. & Trans.
Conventional V6 to Power-
split HEV
Costs

Inv. & Tig. $
$/Unit
Inv. & Tig. $
$/Unit

Inv. & Tig. $
$/Unit
Inv. & Tig. $
$/Unit
Inv. & Tig. $
$/Unit

Inv. & Tig. $
$/Unit
New

$181,781,500
$80.79
$194,417,889
$86.41

$205,756,250
$91.45
$163,786,250
$72.79
$89,553,000
$39.8

$387,537,750
$172.24
@ 3 Yrs.

$126,827,050
$56.37
$135,672,522
$60.30

$123,039,875
$54.68
$107,503,375
$47.78
$62,687,100
$27.86

$249,866,925
$111.05
@ 5 Yrs.

$90,590,750
$40.26
$96,908,944
$43.07

$87,885,625
$39.06
$76,788,125
$34.13
$44,776,500
$19.90

$178,476,375
$79.32
@ 8 Yrs.

$36,236,300
$16.11
$38,763,578
$17.23

$35,154,250
$15.62
$30,715,250
$13.65
$17,910,600
$7.96

$71,390,550
$31.73
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5   Glossary of Terms
        Dedicated:
Custom   manufacturing   equipment   (100%   Stranded).
Equipment design is specific to a component design such that
there is minimal opportunity to retool and little value other
than  scrap  metal.     Dedicated   hardware  within  the
manufacturing process, while often generic in its component
design,  is in many cases  configured in such that it is  less
likely to be reused.
        Flexible:
Can be used to manufacture baseline or new technology parts
(0% Stranded).  Equipment is generic and oftentimes an off-
the-shelf design  that can  be easily redeployed for  other
component manufacturing within some constraints (turning,
milling, work envelop size, etc.)
        Capital
        Investment:
The  facilities,  machines  and other equipment within the
manufacturing process that are not directly in contact with the
part produced. Among auto manufacturers, investment is also
referred to as the facilities  and equipment part of process
(versus part-contacting tooling, cutting tools, fixtures, gauges,
etc.).
        Perishable:        Frequent replacement of tooling (0% Stranded). Perishable is
                         often referring to the wearable part of the cutting tool or part-
                         contacting components of the process that are prone to wear
                         or have a given life.
        Re-Usable:       Equipment can be used in alternative industries, equipment
                         sold-off at defined percent of remaining value.  Equipment
                         can be components of either dedicated or flexible equipment.
        Semi-Dedicated:  Approximately  50%  of equipment is flexible  and  50%
                         dedicated or stranded
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Stranded Capital: The abandoned equipment costs, either as new, or at reduced
                 value when replaced after a prematurely truncated period of
                 time in production.
Stranded Tooling: The abandoned tooling costs, either as new, or at reduced
                 value when replaced after a prematurely truncated period of
                 time in production.
Tooling:          Generally   the   part-contacting   components   of   the
                 manufacturing process, such as part-contacting cutting tools,
                 fixtures, gauges, etc.
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