Computer Simulation of Light-Duty
            Vehicle Technologies for Greenhouse
            Gas Emission Reduction in the
            2020-2025 Timeframe
&EPA
United States
Environmental Protection
Agency

-------
       Computer Simulation  of Light-Duty
      Vehicle Technologies for Greenhouse
          Gas Emission Reduction in the
                2020-2025 Timeframe
                    Assessment and Standards Division
                   Office of Transportation and Air Quality
                   U.S. Environmental Protection  Agency
                          Prepared for EPA by
                            Ricardo, Inc.
                               and
              Systems Research and Applications Corporation (SRA)
                      EPA Contract No. EP-C-11-007
                       Work Assignment No. 0-12
      NOTICE

      This technical report does not necessarily represent final EPA decisions or
      positions. It is intended to present technical analysis of issues using data
      that are currently available. The purpose in the release of such reports is to
      facilitate the exchange of technical information and to inform the public of
      technical developments.
United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
EPA-420-R-11-020
December 2011

-------
Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
       COMPUTER SIMULATION OF LIGHT-DUTY VEHICLE TECHNOLOGIES FOR
       GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION REDUCTION IN THE 2020-2025 TIMEFRAME

                               EXECUTIVE SUM MARY

Ricardo, Inc. was subcontracted by Systems Research  and Applications Corporation (SRA), a
wholly  owned subsidiary of SRA  International,  Inc.,  under  contract to the  United  States
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to assess the effectiveness of future light duty vehicle
(LDV) technologies on future vehicle performance and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the
2020-2025 timeframe. GHG emissions are a globally important issue, and the EPA's Office of
Transportation and Air Quality (OTAQ) has been chartered with examining the GHG emissions
reduction potential of LDVs, including passenger cars and light-duty trucks. This program  was
performed between October 2009 and November 2011.

The scope of this project was to execute an independent and objective analytical study of  LDV
technologies  likely to  be  available  within the  2020-2025 timeframe, and to develop a  data
visualization tool to allow  users to evaluate the effectiveness of LDV technology packages for
their potential to reduce GHG emissions and their effect on vehicle performance. This study
assessed the effectiveness  of a broad range of technologies including powertrain architecture
(conventional and  hybrid), engine, transmission,  and other vehicle attributes such as engine
displacement, final drive ratio, vehicle weight, and  rolling resistance on seven light-duty vehicle
classes. The methodology used in this program surveyed the broad design space using robust
physics-based modeling tools and then generated  a computationally efficient response surface
to enable extremely fast surveying of the design space within  a data visualization tool.  During
this effort, quality assurance checks were employed to ensure that the simulation results were a
valid representation of the performance of the vehicle. Through the use of the data visualization
tool,  the users can query the design space on a real time basis while  capturing interactions
between technologies that may not be identified from individual simulations.

This report documents the work done on  the program "Computer  Simulation of Light Duty
Vehicle Technologies for Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe".
This work  has included  identifying and selecting technologies for inclusion in the  study,
developing and validating baseline models, and developing the data visualization tool.
29 November 2011                           Ricardo, Inc.                                   3

-------
Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
                                TABLE OF CONTENTS

1.   INTRODUCTION	8
2.   OBJECTIVES	9
3.   BACKGROUND	9
  3.1    Study Background	9
  3.2    Ground Rules for Study	10
  3.3    Technology Package Selection Process	11
  3.4    Complex Systems Modeling Approach	12
  3.5    Data Visualization Tool	13
4.   TECHNOLOGY REVIEW	13
  4.1    Advanced Engine Technologies	13
    4.1.1    Advanced Valvetrains	14
    4.1.1.1  Cam-Profile Switching Valvetrain	14
    4.1.1.2  Digital Valve Actuation Valvetrain	14
    4.1.2    Direct Injection Fuel Systems	17
    4.1.3    Boosting System	17
    4.1.4    Other Engine Technologies	18
  4.2    Engine Configurations	19
    4.2.1    Stoichiometric Dl Turbo	19
    4.2.2    Lean-Stoichiometric Switching	21
    4.2.3    EGRDI Turbo	22
    4.2.4    Atkinson Cycle	23
    4.2.5    Advanced Diesel	23
    4.2.6    Fueling Map Development Examples	24
    4.2.6.1  EBDI®to EGR Dl Turbo	24
    4.2.6.2  Contemporary to Future Atkinson	25
  4.3    Hybrid Technologies	26
    4.3.1    Micro Hybrid: Stop-Start	26
    4.3.2    P2 Parallel Hybrid	26
    4.3.3    Input Powersplit	27
  4.4    Transmission Technologies	27
    4.4.1    Automatic Transmission	28
    4.4.2    Dual Clutch Transmission (DCT)	28
    4.4.3    Launch Device: Wet Clutch	29
    4.4.4    Launch Device: Dry Clutch Advancements	29
    4.4.5    Launch Device: Multi-Damper Torque Converter	30
    4.4.6    Shifting Clutch Technology	30
    4.4.7    Improved Kinematic Design	30
    4.4.8    Dry Sump	31
    4.4.9    Efficient Components	31
    4.4.10  Super Finishing	31
    4.4.11   Lubrication	31
  4.5    Vehicle Technologies	31
29 November 2011                           Ricardo, Inc.                               Page 4

-------
Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe


    4.5.1    Intelligent Cooling Systems	31
    4.5.2    Electric Power Assisted Steering	32
5.   TECHNOLOGY BUNDLES AND SIMULATION MATRICES	32
    5.1    Technology Options Considered	32
    5.2    Vehicle configurations and technology combinations	32
6.   VEHICLE MODEL	35
    6.1    Baseline Conventional Vehicle Models	35
    6.2    Baseline Hybrid Vehicle Models	36
    6.3    Engine Models	36
    6.3.1    Warm-up Methodology	38
    6.3.2    Accessories Models	38
    6.4    Transmission Models	40
    6.5    Torque Converter Models	42
    6.6    Final Drive Differential Model	42
    6.7    Driver Model	43
    6.8    Hybrid Models	43
7.   MODEL VALIDATION RESULTS	47
    7.1    Validation Cases and 2010 Baseline Vehicle Models	47
    7.2    Nominal Runs	48
8.   COMPLEX SYSTEMS MODEL VALIDATION	48
    8.1    Evaluation of Design Space	48
    8.2    Response Surface Modeling	50
9.   RESULTS	50
    9.1    Basic Results of Simulation	50
    9.2    Design Space Query	50
    9.3    Exploration of the Design Space	51
    9.4    Identification and Use of the Efficient Frontier	51
10.  RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FURTHER WORK	56
11.  CONCLUSIONS	56
12.  ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS	57
13.  REFERENCES	58
APPENDICES	60
Appendix 1, Abbreviations	60
Appendix 2, Assessment of Technology Options	61
Appendix 3, Baseline Vehicle Parameters and Runs Results	63
Appendix 4, Output Factors for Study	64
Appendix 5, Nominal Runs Results	65
ATTACHMENT A	69
29 November 2011                          Ricardo, Inc.                             Page 5

-------
Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
                                  LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 3.1: Technology package selection process	11
Figure 4.1: Honda's VTEC cam profile switching system	15
Figure 4.2: Expected BSFC benefit from CPS system over typical engine operating map	15
Figure 4.3: INA UniAir digital valve actuation system	16
Figure 4.4: Expected BSFC benefit from DVA system over typical engine operating map	16
Figure 4.5: General Motors two-stage turbo transient performance	18
Figure 4.6: Typical region of fuel enrichment in stoichiometric Dl engines, eliminated through
use of a water-cooled exhaust manifold	20
Figure 4.7: 2.CM! General Motors SIDI two-stage boosted engine BSFC map	21
Figure 4.8: Zone of lean operation for Lean-Stoichiometric Dl Turbo engine	22
Figure 4.9: BSFC map (in g/kW-h) for EBDI® engine with EGR	24
Figure 4.10:  BSFC map (in g/kW«h) for Toyota Prius engine	25
Figure 4.11:  Comparison of Automatic and DCT Transmission Efficiencies	29
Figure 4.12:  Typical transverse wet clutch DCT arrangement	30
Figure 6.1: MSC.EasyS conventional vehicle model	36
Figure 6.2: Change in BSFC resulting from cylinder heat loss	38
Figure 6.4: Comparison of CVT and optimized DCT gear ratios overdrive cycle	41
Figure 6.5: Comparison of shift activity for traditional and optimized shifting strategies	42
Figure 6.6: 2007 Camry motor-inverter efficiency contour map	44
Figure 6.7: High level state flow diagram for the hybrid control strategy	44
Figure 6.8: Best BSFC curve superimposed on fueling map	46
Figure 6.9: Hybrid powertrain energy supervisory strategy	46
Figure 9.1: Design Space Query screen in  Data Visualization Tool	52
Figure 9.2: Design Space Analysis screen in Data Visualization Tool	52
Figure 9.3: Full Size Car  Design Space Analysis example	53
Figure 9.4: Full Size Car  Design Space Analysis example	53
Figure 9.5: Full Size Car  Design Space Analysis example	54
Figure 9.6: Standard Car design space analysis example comparing powertrains with EGR Dl
Turbo engine	54
Figure 9.7: Full design space example showing all seven vehicle classes using Stoichiometric
Dl Turbo engine and advanced automatic transmission with varying vehicle mass and engine
displacement	55
Figure 9.8: Efficient Frontier screen of Data Visualization Tool with example plot	55
29 November 2011                            Ricardo, Inc.                               Page 6

-------
Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
                                   LIST OF TABLES

Table 5.1: Engine technology package definition	33
Table 5.2: Hybrid technology package definition	33
Table 5.3: Transmission technology package definition	33
Table 5.4: Baseline and Conventional Stop-Start vehicle simulation matrix	34
Table 5.5: P2 and Input Powersplit hybrid simulation matrix	34
Table 6.1: Vehicle classes and baseline exemplar vehicles	36
Table 6.3: Accessory loads for conventional stop-start and P2 hybrids	39
Table 6.4: Mechanical cooling fan loads for LOT and LHDT	39
Table 6.5: Transmission gear ratios for six-speed and eight-speed transmissions	40
Table 7.1: Validation vehicle fuel economy performance	47
Table 8.1: Continuous input parameter sweep ranges with conventional powertrain	49
Table 8.2: Continuous input variable ranges for P2 and Powersplit hybrid  powertrains	49
Table A3.1: Baseline Vehicle Parameters and Runs Results	63
Table A5.1: Nominal Runs Results	66
29 November 2011                            Ricardo, Inc.                                Page 7

-------
      Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
1.     INTRODUCTION

      Ricardo was subcontracted by Systems Research and Applications Corporation (SRA), a wholly
      owned subsidiary of SRA International, Inc., under contract to the United States Environmental
      Protection  Agency  (EPA) to  assess the effectiveness of future  light  duty  vehicle (LDV)
      technologies on future vehicle performance and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the 2020-
      2025 timeframe.  GHG emissions  are a  globally  important issue,  and the EPA's Office of
      Transportation and Air Quality (OTAQ) has been chartered with examining the GHG emissions
      reduction potential of LDVs, including passenger cars and light-duty trucks.

      SRA is  a  company of over 7,000 staff dedicated to solving complex  problems of global
      significance for  government organizations serving the civil government,  global health, and
      national security markets. SRA's Air Programs and Climate Change Account works extensively
      with OTAQ and other EPA offices on  regulatory and voluntary programs to reduce air pollution
      and address climate change.

      SRA and Ricardo worked closely with the EPA team on nearly every technical and contractual
      issue.

      The team at EPA OTAQ included the following staff members:
         •  Matt  Brusstar,   Director,  Advanced   Powertrain   Center,  Testing  and   Advanced
            Technology Division
         •  Jeff Cherry, Staff Engineer, Light Duty Vehicles and Small  Engine  Center, Assessment
            and Standards Division
         •  Ann Chiu, Contract Project Officer, Data Analysis and Information  Center, Compliance
            Division
         •  Ben Ellies, Staff Engineer, Climate Analysis and Strategies Center, Transportation and
            Climate Division
         •  Joe McDonald, Senior Engineer, Fuels Center, Assessment and Standards Division

      In addition to the SRA-Ricardo team working for EPA, other stakeholders for the program
      included the International Council on Clean  Transportation  (ICCT)  and the California Air
      Resources Board  (ARE). ICCT contributed funding for  the  early portion  of the study in
      collaboration  with ARE. The Advisory Committee  provided advice to  EPA, and included the
      following representatives from ICCT and ARE:
         •  Steven Albu, Assistant Division Chief, ARE
         •  Anup Bandivedakar, Senior Researcher, ICCT
         •  John German, Senior Fellow and Program Director, ICCT
         •  Paul Hughes, Manager, ARE

      Ricardo, Inc., is  the  US division of Ricardo pic., a global engineering consultancy with nearly
      100 years  of specialized  engineering  expertise  and  technical  experience  in  engines,
      transmissions, and automotive vehicle research and development. This program was performed
      between October 2009 and November 2011.

      The scope of the program was to execute  an independent and objective analytical study of LDV
      technologies  likely to be available for volume  production in the 2020-2025 timeframe, and to
      develop a data visualization tool to allow users to evaluate the effectiveness of LDV technology
      packages for their potential to reduce GHG emissions.  An assessment of the effect of these
      technologies on LDV cost was beyond the  scope of this study.
      29 November 2011                            Ricardo, Inc.                                  8

-------
      Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
      This work was done in collaboration with EPA, and the approach included the following:
         •  Activities funded by ICCT
                o  Identify a  large set  of  future technologies  that  could  improve  LDV  GHG
                   emissions.
                o  Assess these technologies for potential benefit and ability to be commercialized
                   by the 2020-2025 timeframe.
                o  Reduce this  large  set to the technologies selected for  further  study  in this
                   program.
         •  Activities funded by EPA:
                o  Extrapolate selected technologies  to their expected performance and efficiency
                   levels in the 2020-2025 timeframe.
                o  Conduct  detailed simulation of the technologies over  a  large design  space,
                   including a range of vehicle classes, powertrain architectures, engine designs,
                   and transmission designs, as well as parameters describing these configurations,
                   such as engine displacement, final  drive ratio, and vehicle rolling resistance.
                o  Interpolate the results over the design space using a functional representation of
                   the responses to the varied model input factors.
                o  Develop  a  Data Visualization Tool  to facilitate interrogation of the simulation
                   results over the design space.
2.     OBJECTIVES

      The goal of this technical program  has been  to objectively evaluate  the effectiveness and
      performance of a large LDV design space with powertrain technologies likely to be available in
      the 2020-2025 timeframe, and thereby assess the  potential for GHG emissions reduction in
      these  future vehicles while also  understanding the effects of these technologies on vehicle
      performance.


3.     BACKGROUND

      3.1    Study Background

      The EPA has an interest in improving the environmental performance and efficiency of cars,
      trucks, buses,  and  transportation  systems  to  protect and  improve  public  health,  the
      environment, and quality of life. Additionally, reduction of GHG emissions—emphasizing carbon
      dioxide (CO2)—is an  increasing  priority of  national governments and  other policymakers
      worldwide.

      This program builds  on  the work done earlier by Perrin Quarles Associates (PQA, now part of
      SRA)  and  Ricardo  in  2007-2008 to assess  the  potential  effectiveness of GHG-reducing
      technologies in  LDVs in the  2010-2017 timeframe (Ricardo and  PQA, 2008). The earlier
      program was also funded by EPA and looked at  a  series of specific LDV configurations and
      from these assessed the benefits.

      The purpose of this study is to  define and evaluate potential  technologies that may improve
      GHG emissions in LDVs in the 2020-2025 timeframe. These technologies represent a mixture
      of future mainstream technologies and some emerging technologies for the study timeframe.
      For this program, however, a large  design  space was  comprehensively examined so that
      29 November 2011                           Ricardo, Inc.                                   9

-------
Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
broader conclusions could  be drawn about these technologies that could lead to  benefits to
GHG emissions reduction.

3.2    Ground Rules for Study

Several ground rules for the study were agreed at the beginning of the program to bound the
design space considered in the study. These ground rules identified content that should be
included in the study as well as content that should be excluded.

Some examples of the ground rules include the following items for the technology assessment:
   •   Seven vehicle classes will be included, as described below.
   •   LDV technologies must have the potential to be commercially deployed in 2020-2025. .
   •   Vehicle sizes,  particularly footprint and interior space, for each class will  be largely
       unchanged from 2010 to 2020-2025.
   •   Hybrid vehicles will use an advanced hybrid control strategy, focusing on battery state of
       charge (SOC) management, but not at the expense of drivability.
   •   Vehicles will use  fuels that are equivalent to either 87 octane pump gasoline or 40
       cetane pump diesel.
   •   2020-2025  vehicles will  meet future  California  LEV III  requirements for criteria
       pollutants, which are assumed to be equivalent to current SULEV II (or EPA Tier 2 Bin 2)
       levels.
   •   Ricardo  would be  allowed to use Ricardo proprietary data and  expertise to assess
       technologies and develop the models, as this allowed  the technologies to be assessed
       more  comprehensively  than if only  publicly  available  data were  used.  Ricardo
       confidential business information relevant to  the execution of the program was shared
       with EPA for the purposes of allowing an external audit of the model inputs developed
       for the program.
   •   Due to the multiple designs that  manufacturers  may realize  for any given advanced
       technology, the effect of technologies on overall vehicle mass is not incorporated directly
       in the Easy5 models. Instead, the model makes the overt simplifying assumption that all
       technologies are mass-neutral. The end-user has the flexibility to incorporate their own
       assumptions about  mass  reduction from advanced technologies when exploring  the
       design space with the Data Visualization Tool.
   •   Similarly, other road load reductions  such as aerodynamic drag and rolling resistance
       reduction were  addressed  as input  variables within  the  complex  systems modeling
       approach.

Likewise, EPA, along with input from the Advisory Committee agreed for this program that the
technology assessment should exclude the following:
   •   Charge-depleting powertrains, such as plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) or battery
       electric vehicles (BEV)1.
   •   Fuel cell power plants for fuel cell-electric vehicles (FCEV).
   •   Non-reciprocating internal combustion engines (ICE) or external combustion engines.
   •   Manual transmissions and automated manual transmissions (AMT) with a single clutch.
   •   Kinetic energy recovery systems (KERS) other than battery systems.
1  While modeling of vehicles with increased electrification would  be beneficial, the highest priority was
given to vehicle architectures determined most likely to be present in higher volumes during the 2020-
2025 time frame. Due to resource limitations, PHEVs and BEVs were considered outside the scope of
this study and left as candidates for follow-up modeling work.
29 November 2011                            Ricardo, Inc.                               Page 10

-------
Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
   •   Intelligent vehicle  to vehicle  (V2V) and  vehicle to  infrastructure  (V2I) optimization
       technology.
   •   Bottoming cycles, such as organic Rankine cycles, for energy recovery.
   •   Vehicle safety systems or structures will not be  explicitly modeled for vehicles. A full
       safety analysis of the technologies presented in this report is  beyond the scope of this
       study.

The seven vehicle classes considered in this study are the following,  with a currently available
example vehicle given for each class:
1. Small (B-class) Car, such as the Toyota Yaris
2. Standard (D-class) Car,  such as the Toyota Camry
3. Small Multi-Purpose Vehicle (MPV), such as the Saturn Vue
4. Full Sized Car, such as the Chrysler 300
5. Large MPV, such as the Dodge Grand Caravan
6. Light-Duty Truck (LOT),  such as the Ford F150
7. Light Heavy-Duty Truck  (LHDT), such as the General Motors HD3500

3.3     Technology Package Selection Process

The program team  used the  process shown in Figure 3.1 to identify the technology options
listed in Appendix 2, Assessment of  Technology  Options, to the set described  in Chapter 4,
Technology  Review,  and  integrated  into  the technology bundles  described  in  Chapter  5,
Technology Bundles and Simulation Matrices.
     Technology
    Identification
   Ricardo
   Subject
    Matter
    Expert
Assessment
EPA Review
      &
Technology
 Discussion
Technology
  Package
  Selection
                   Figure 3.1: Technology package selection process.

The  program team first developed a  comprehensive list of potential technologies shown in
Appendix 2  that could be  in use on vehicles  in the study timeframe, 2020-2025. These
technologies were grouped  by subject area, such as transmissions, engines, or vehicle, and
given to Ricardo subject matter experts  (SMEs) for assessment and evaluation. These SME
assessments were then  reviewed  with  EPA,  who  also  sought input from  the  Advisory
Committee. Together,  the program team determined which technologies would be included
once they were evaluated qualitatively against the following criteria for further consideration:
   •   Potential of the technology to improve GHG emissions on a tank to wheels basis
   •   State of development and commercialization of the technology in  the  2020-2025
       timeframe
   •   Current (2010) maturity of the technology

The technology options selected were then put together into technology packages for use in the
vehicle performance simulations.  An additional  consideration was how  the  inclusion of  the
29 November 2011
                                      Ricardo, Inc.
                                                    Page 11

-------
Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
technology would affect simulation matrices presented in Section 5.2, particularly the effect on
the overall number of simulations needed.

3.4    Complex Systems Modeling Approach

Complex systems modeling (CSM)  is an objective, scientific approach that supports high-level
decision  making when there are a large number of  factors to  consider  that influence the
outcome, as with LDV development for vehicle performance and GHG emissions reduction.

A vehicle is made up of interrelated components and subsystems, which combined make up a
system that by definition provides functionality greater than the sum of its parts. An automotive
system like a vehicle  may be  defined as  a "complex system" based upon the number of
interrelated, interconnected, and interwoven elements and interfaces requiring a great deal of
information to specify (Kinnunen, 2006). An important concept associated with complex systems
is the property of "emergence".  In this context it means that there may be collective behavior of
the components and subsystems along with the system's response to its environment that are
not predictable or linear in response to changes to the individual behavior of each part.

A number of interdisciplinary scientific efforts have led to the development of "complex systems
theory", which  seeks  to overcome the  limitations  of  reductionist approaches  through the
development of tools and models that are able  to capture emergence and  other behavior of
complex systems (McCarthy, et a/., 2000). Supplementing the use of complex systems theory is
the application of the system  engineering process model, which dictates proceeding from the
general to the  detailed—a top  down approach—and observes the principle of  creation  and
selection   of alternatives.  These  theories  and  principles  have  been  developed  into  a
methodology that utilizes physics-based modeling and simulation in order to enable quantitative
analysis over a multidimensional design space along with advanced  visualization techniques in
order to   understand  the  results  (Biltgen, et  a/., 2006).  Ricardo   has   incorporated  this
methodology, now referred to as "complex system modeling (CSM)  into its consulting practice
on previous projects (Luskin, 2010).

In this program, many combinations of technologies were used to generate detailed results that
were  abstracted  and  made accessible through  a Data  Visualization  Tool described in
Section 3.5. To be objective,  performance  metrics were identified by  EPA  and  the Advisory
Committee;  these metrics  were outputs of the vehicle performance simulation effort  and
characterize key vehicle attributes. To be scientific, the performance  simulations use a physics-
based modeling approach for detailed simulation of the vehicle.

The design of experiments (DoE) approach surveys the design space in a way that extracts the
maximum information  using a  limited budget of  simulation runs.  The purpose  of the DoE
simulation matrix was to efficiently explore a comprehensive potential design space for LDVs in
the 2020-2025 timeframe.  The  simulation matrix was  designed  to  generate  selected
performance results over the  selected drive cycles, such as fuel consumption or  acceleration
times.

A statistical analysis was used  to correlate variations in the input factors to variations in the
output factors.  Because  of the complex nature of the LDV configurations and  constituent
technology  packages,  a  neural network approach  was used to  quantify  the  relationships
between input and output factors over the design space explored in the simulations. The result
of this analysis was a set of response surface models (RSM) that represent in simplified form
the complex relationships between the input and output factors in the  design space.
29 November 2011                            Ricardo, Inc.                                  12

-------
      Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
      3.5    Data Visualization Tool

      The  Data Visualization Tool allows the  user to  efficiently  assess  the  effects of various
      combinations of future technologies on GHG emissions and other vehicle performance metrics.
      The tool allows the user to query the RSM and investigate options leading  to equivalent GHG
      emissions levels. A separate User Guide for the Data Visualization Tool will be released with the
      tool and will provide more information on how to use the tool to access the results.

      The Data Visualization Tool uses the RSM set generated by the Complex Systems approach to
      represent the vehicle performance simulation results over the design space. These simulations
      cover multiple variations of vehicle configuration, including several combinations of advanced
      powertrain and vehicle technologies  in the seven LDV classes. Vehicle configurations with
      unacceptable performance, such  as combined fuel  economy below  a certain threshold or
      acceleration times longer than some benchmark value, can be excluded  from further study.

      The tool samples vehicle configurations from  a selected subset of the design  space by using
      Monte Carlo type capabilities to pick input parameter values from a uniform distribution.  Defining
      selected portions of the design space and plotting the results visualizes the effect of these
      parameters  on  vehicle fuel  economy  and  performance, allowing   trade off analysis  via
      constraints setting to  be performed over a wide  design  space representing  the 2020-2025
      technologies as applied.
4.     TECHNOLOGY REVIEW

      Following the process outlined above in Section 3.3, Technology Package Selection Process, a
      broad  list of potential  technologies was identified for consideration in the study and  then
      narrowed to a subset for inclusion in the study. The technologies in this subset are described in
      this chapter.

      In the study timeframe of 2020-2025, spark-ignited (SI) engines are projected to continue to be
      the  dominant powertrain in the U.S. LDV market, especially since the efficiency of SI engines is
      expected to approach  the  efficiency of compression  ignition  (Cl, or diesel)  engines at the
      required  2020-2025 emissions  levels.  Diesel engines  are also included as they  are  still
      expected to be present in the study timeframe, especially in the heavier vehicle classes.

      The first two sections of this chapter therefore describe the technologies expected to appear in
      future engines generally and in the specific engine  configurations considered in the study,
      respectively. The other sections  in this chapter describe the transmission and driveline, vehicle,
      and hybrid system technologies that were included in the overall design space of the study. The
      implementation of these technologies  in  the  vehicle performance  models is described in
      Chapter 6, Vehicle Model.

      4.1     Advanced Engine Technologies

      The primary challenge  for advanced engines in the 2020-2025 timeframe is to reduce GHG
      emissions and maintain performance while meeting  increasingly stringent criteria  pollutant
      standards.  This challenge is expected to be met through a range of  improvements,  from the
      application  of highly-efficient downsized engines through to detailed optimization of components
      and systems. This section describes specific technologies or systems that are expected to be
      29 November 2011                            Ricardo, Inc.                               Page 13

-------
Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
included in future engines, each of which supports the overall goal of reduced GHG emissions
in  future  vehicles. Section  4.2,  Engine Configurations,  describes  the  complete  engine
technology packages that synthesize the effects of the technologies described here to develop
the model inputs used.

4.1.1   Advanced Valvetrains

Several advances in valvetrain technology are expected to be available in the study timeframe.
These technologies are expected to apply to engines across the whole set of vehicle classes
examined in the study.

Advanced valvetrain systems improve fuel consumption and GHG emissions mainly by reducing
pumping  losses in the engine. The pumping loss mitigation provides larger benefits at part-load
operation, such as  during urban driving. Advanced valvetrains also support engine downsizing,
which provides fuel consumption benefits across  the complete  engine operating map. Lastly,
they  can be used  to support faster aftertreatment warm-up through  varied timing, leading to
additional, synergistic gains if the faster aftertreatment warm-up creates a benefit to tailpipe-out
NOX emissions that can be traded off to improve GHG emissions.

Two  advanced valvetrain options, cam-profile switching and  digital valve  actuation, were
included in the study and are discussed below. The effects of these valvetrains were integrated
into the model  inputs developed for the complete engine technology packages described in
Section 4.2.

4.1.1.1 Cam-Profile Switching Valvetrain

Cam-profile switching (CPS) systems use a hydraulically-actuated mechanical system to select
between two or three cam profiles. CPS systems, such as the Honda VTEC,  Mitsubishi MIVEC,
Porsche VarioCam, and Audi Valvelift, have been developed by a  number of Japanese  and
European manufacturers. Figure 4.1 shows a diagram of Honda's VTEC CPS system (Honda,
2011). CPS systems can be designed to improve low-speed torque or to improve fuel economy
by reducing pumping losses at light load. CPS systems are applicable in all LDV classes.  The
benefit to fuel consumption is expected to range up to 7% at specific part-load operating points,
as shown in Figure 4.2, and will therefore provide a larger benefit in city driving than in highway
driving.

4.1.1.2 Digital Valve Actuation Valvetrain

Digital valve actuation (DVA) uses a mechanical,  hydraulic, or electrical system to actuate the
valves independently of a camshaft. The full  realization of DVA in the  study timeframe will be a
camless DVA system, where there is no mechanical linkage between  the engine crank and the
valves. The engine fueling maps with DVA were assumed to use camless DVA systems, such
as electrohydraulic or electromagnetic systems.  Electropneumatic systems are less  mature
currently,  but may  yet be available late in the timeframe. An example DVA system in current
production is the  Fiat MultiAir system, which is an  electro-hydraulic system  (Fiat, 2009),
although  it still uses a camshaft to provide the primary timing for the valve open and valve close
events. The Schaeffler Group's INA UniAir DVA system is shown  in Figure 4.3. The DVA system
could be  implemented to provide flexibility with valve event timing, valve  lift profiles, or both. As
with  the CPS  systems, the main benefit in GHG emissions is a  result of  reducing pumping
losses at part-load operation  and lower engine speeds, although  the  benefits at specific
operating points can range up to 12% as shown in  Figure 4.4.
29 November 2011                           Ricardo, Inc.                               Page 14

-------
Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
                           Normal valve
                          train mechanism
VTEC mechanism
                                   One cam profile
           Two different
           cam profiles
                       One
                       rocker arm
                         Cross-sectional view         Frontal view

           Figure 4.1: Honda's VTEC cam profile switching system. (Honda, 2011)
     1000     1500     2000     2500    3000    3500     4000     4500     5000     5500    6000
                                     Engine speed [rev/min]
     Figure 4.2: Expected BSFC benefit from CPS system over typical engine operating
                                           map.
29 November 2011
                                          Ricardo, Inc.
                                   Page 15

-------
Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
       Figure 4.3: INA UniAir digital valve actuation system. (Schaeffler Group, 2010)
 a.
 HI
 5
 ffl
                                                      Variable valve-lift (DVA) benefit [%]
     1000     1500     2000     2500    3000    3500     4000     4500     5000     5500    6000

                                     Engine speed [rev/min]

     Figure 4.4: Expected BSFC benefit from DVA system over typical engine operating

                                           map.
29 November 2011
                                          Ricardo, Inc.
Page 16

-------
Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
4.1.2   Direct Injection Fuel Systems

Direct injection (Dl) fuel systems are the standard fuel injection system in use on current diesel
engines. One of the significant changes expected  by the 2020-2025 timeframe is a continued
transition from port fuel injection (PFI) to Dl in SI engines as well. For SI engines with Dl, the
fuel is injected directly into the combustion cylinder before being ignited. Dl fuel systems inject
the fuel  at a higher pressure than PFI injectors do, and allow the use of multiple injection events
to support advanced combustion control. SI engines with Dl  were first introduced in Japan in
1996, and an increasing number of new SI engines now feature Dl.

Using Dl improves fuel consumption across the full range of engine operation, including at part-
load and high-load conditions, with  an expected benefit of 2-4%. Dl improves fuel economy by
facilitating a higher compression ratio in the engine, which improves the engine's volumetric and
thermal  efficiency. Although detailed  injection  control strategies were  not specifically modeled,
the effects of Dl fuel systems were  integrated into the model inputs developed for the complete
engine technology packages described in Section 4.2. The program team used their experience
with research engines and with developing  and benchmarking production engines to project that
spray-guided Dl will  be the mainstream Dl technology  in use  in the 2020-2025 timeframe,
supplanting wall guided Dl. Spray-guided Dl offers the capability to deliver a stratified charge—
where the fuel concentration decreases away from the spark plug—that will facilitate lower GHG
emissions through unthrottled lean-burn operation.

For diesel engines, emissions requirements will cause the injection pressures to continue to
increase to the 2000-2400 bar injection pressure range. These very high injection pressures
support  better combustion and reduced engine-out emissions.  In  addition,  multiple  injection
events will be used to better control the onset  and progress of the  combustion event  in the
cylinder.

4.1.3   Boosting System

Using devices to boost the engine's  intake air pressure will increase the torque  and power
available from a given engine displacement. By increasing the boost pressure while decreasing
engine displacement, the power level is maintained while reducing pumping work in the engine
by shifting engine operation to higher-load operating points.

The advanced engines in  the 2020-2025 timeframe are expected to  have advanced boosting
systems to increase the pressure of the intake  charge up to 3  bar. Various boosting approaches
are possible, such as superchargers, turbochargers, and electric motor-driven compressors and
turbines. The appropriate technology  for 2020-2025  will  need to  provide  cost-effective
improvement in  performance  and  efficiency while mitigating turbo lag.  Matching  a boosting
system  to  a particular  engine is  very important  to  realize the maximum benefits  of  this
technology.  For this study, the effects of the boosting  system are already incorporated  in the
engine map to produce a reasonably optimized system performance over a wide range of input
variables.

Turbocharged engines in the 2020-2025 timeframe are expected to have an advanced boost
strategy that provides a smooth acceleration feel. The advanced engines with  boost systems
were  assumed to have  two-stage series sequential turbocharger  systems.  Turbocharging
means that there is some risk of the vehicle performance being affected by turbo lag, a delay in
the torque rise that results from the dynamics  of the gas flow through  the engine. This effect is
illustrated in Figure 4.5, which  shows the benefits of the two-stage turbo system described by
29 November 2011                            Ricardo, Inc.                               Page 17

-------
Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
Schmuck-Soldan,  et  al.   (2011),  that  General  Motors   had  tested  against  twin-scroll
turbochargers.  Figure  4.5  shows  the  torque  response using  net  mean  effective pressure
(NMEP), which equals  both the difference between the indicated and pumping mean effective
pressures (IMEP and PMEP, respectively), and  the sum of the brake and friction mean effective
pressures  (BMEP  and FMEP, respectively).  Turbo  lag  is  most  significant  during  hard
acceleration events, especially when the engine starts at  or  near its idle speed and  load.
Mitigating turbo lag  means  carefully choosing the capacities  of the high pressure and low
pressure compressors  and turbines and connecting pipes to provide acceptable steady-state
torque across the engine speed range and an acceptable transient rate of torque rise,  often
expressed  as the time required to reach 85% of maximum  torque at a given engine  speed.
Modeling turbo lag effects is described later in Section 6.3, Engine Models.


                 2,OL TwoStage Turbo Transient Performance, 1500rpm
                                             215Nm/16
                                                  Two-Stage Turbo Transient NMEP
                                                  TwS Turbo 194KW Transient NMEP
                                                  TwS Turbo 233KW Transient NMEP
              -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0  0.5 1.0 13 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6,0 6.5 7.0
                                         Time [sec]
            Figure 4.5: General Motors two-stage turbo transient performance.
                            (Schmuck-Soldan, etaL, 2011)

4.1.4   Other Engine Technologies

Other engine technologies  incorporated  into the  future engines were  further improvements in
engine friction leading to a global reduction in engine fuel  consumption. This friction reduction is
expected to result from a combination  of technology advances, including  piston  ringpack, bore
finish,  lower-viscosity crankcase lubricants, low-friction  coatings, valvetrain  components, and
bearing technology. The  details  of these  improvements in  engine friction were not explicitly
itemized in this study, and were instead treated as a global engine friction reduction.

Another approach is to optimize the overall engine design, for example,  by  combining engine
components to reduce mass and thermal inertia, giving an improved package and faster warm-
up. Ancillary systems may also be electrified to remove the front engine accessory drive (FEAD)
29 November 2011
                                        Ricardo, Inc.
Page 18

-------
Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
and allow variable accessory performance independent of engine speed. (See, for example,
Section 4.5.2, Electric Power Assisted Steering.)  The combination of components, such as the
exhaust manifold and cylinder head  design, will  improve the response time for turbocharging
and aftertreatment warm-up. Electrification of FEAD components, such as the electrical coolant
pump,  oil pump,  or AC compressor, reduces  parasitic losses on  the  engine and  allows
accessory operation to be optimized for the operating point independently of the engine.

4.2    Engine Configurations

Several engine configurations were defined  using  combinations  of the advanced engine
technologies described in Section 4.1 based on an assessment of what would be in mainstream
use in  the 2020-2025 timeframe. Five main types of engines were used in the study, and are
described in this section.

The engines considered for the 2020-2025 timeframe were developed using two main methods.
The first method, used with the boosted SI engines, was to review the reported  performance  of
current research engines,  and  assume  that these current  research engines  would closely
resemble  the production engines of the  2020-2025  timeframe. This method takes current
research  engines and refines them to meet production standards,  including manufacturability,
cost, and durability.  The second method, used  with the  Atkinson  cycle  SI  and the diesel
engines,  was to start from  current production  engines and then determine  a pathway  of
technology improvements over the next 10-15 years that would lead to an appropriate engine
configuration for the 2020-2025 timeframe. With both methods, current trends in engine design
and development were extrapolated to obtain an advanced concept performance for the 2020-
2025 timeframe that should be achievable in production volumes. All of the engine fueling maps
developed  accounted for the effects of future  criteria  pollutant standards, assumed to be
equivalent to  California ARB's SULEV II  or to EPA  Tier 2  Bin 2. These fueling maps were
reviewed by EPA and the Advisory Committee to ensure that they were suitable for the study.

The combinations of technologies encompassed in each advanced  engine concept provide
benefits to the fueling  map, or  values  of brake-specific fuel consumption (BSFC)  over the
operating  speed  and load ranges of each engine. For these future engines, the  BSFC  is
improved by up to 10% from current levels. Many of the future engine concepts have low BSFC
values  over large zones  of the engine operating map,  with the best BSFC point often at lower
speeds and part-load conditions. The implementation  of these technology packages into the
vehicle performance models is described in Section 6.3.

4.2.1   Stoichiometric Dl Turbo

The basic advanced engine configuration is the Stoichiometric  Dl  Turbo SI  engine.  This
advanced engine assumes  continued  use of  a Stoichiometric air-fuel  ratio for  simplified
aftertreatment using a three-way  catalyst. The engine modeled has a peak brake mean effective
pressure  (BMEP) of 25-30 bar, which supports significant downsizing compared  to current 2010
engines.  This  high  BMEP level  is reached through  a  combination  of engine technologies,
including  advanced valve  actuation, such as CPS;  spray-guided Dl;  and advanced boost
systems,   such  as  series-sequential turbochargers (see Sections  4.1.1, 4.1.2, and 4.1.3,
respectively).  The compression ratio of the engines was set at 10.5:1, which provides a balance
between fuel consumption and performance.

Current research engines of this configuration have been developed  by several groups.  One
example  is the Sabre engine described by Coltman, et a/. (2008) and by Turner, et a/. (2009).
29 November 2011                           Ricardo, Inc.                              Page 19

-------
Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
The Sabre engine uses CPS to reduce pumping  losses at part-load operation (Turner, et al.,
2009), but only uses single-stage turbocharging with Dl in a 1.5 t three-cylinder engine to reach
20 bar peak BMEP. Lumsden, et al. (2009) at MAHLE Powertrain  have also developed  a 1.2 i,
three-cylinder research engine similar to the Stoichiometric Dl Turbo SI engine with  a peak
BMEP of 28 bar to support up to 50% downsizing.

The Stoichiometric Dl Turbo engine was assumed to operate with  a Stoichiometric air-fuel ratio,
without enrichment, over the complete operating map, even at high-speed, high-load operating
conditions, which significantly improves the fuel consumption in this part of the operating map
as shown in Figure 4.6. This change in operation requires design changes to support the higher
exhaust gas  temperatures  to ensure protecting  the valves,  pistons,  and exhaust  system
components. For example, the future engine configuration uses a cooled exhaust manifold to
keep the turbine inlet temperatures below 950°C over the full operating range of the engine to
mitigate the need for upgraded materials in the exhaust manifold and turbine. This change also
provides benefits to criteria pollutant emissions, especially over the US06 cycle.
         100%
          90%
       g  70%
      ^  60%
       §  50%
      |  40%
       |  30%
      z  20%
          10%
            0%
0       1000    2000    3000    4000    5000
                   Engine Speed (rpm)
                                                                        6000
    Figure 4.6: Typical region of fuel enrichment in Stoichiometric Dl engines (shown in
           blue), eliminated through use of a water-cooled exhaust manifold.

Since the initial conception of  the  2020 Stoichiometric  Dl  Turbo, several  companies have
engineered new  versions  of direct  injected  turbo engines with fueling maps that  closely
resemble the maps that were synthesized and used in this study. One example is the research
engine executed by General Motors  described by Schmuck-Soldan, et al. (2011), that uses a
two-stage series sequential boosting  system like that envisioned for the Stoichiometric Dl Turbo
engine in a 2.0-t variant of the Ecotec SIDI  engine. Presented at the  Internationales  Wiener
Motorensymposium, General Motors' engine achieves a maximum BMEP of 26.4 bar. The best
BSFC island shown in Figure 4.7 is rather large and the zone of best BSFC (up to 105% of the
minimum BSFC) marked on the  map encompasses almost half of the useable engine operating
range. All of the features described by General Motors  are similar to those integrated into the
Stoichiometric  Dl Turbo engine  concept  modeled for this program, and consequently the two
engines have very comparable fueling maps.
29 November 2011
                                       Ricardo, Inc.
                                                           Page 20

-------
Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
                 2,OL Two-Stage Turbo, Map of BSFC [g/kWh]
     re
     -Q

     0.
     Ill

     CD
28 ~\
27-
26-
25-
24-
23-
22-
21-
20 -
19-
18-
17-
16 J
15-
14-

13T
12-
I I -
10-

9~
8-
7-
f--
5-
4-
3-
2-
 i -
        500
              1000
                    1500
                         2000
                               2500
                                     3000
                                           3500
                                                4UUO
                                                      4500
                                                            5000
                                                                  5500
                                                                       9000
                                                                             6500
                                   engine speed [rpm]
        Figure 4.7: 2.0-€ General Motors SIDI two-stage boosted engine BSFC map.
                             (Schmuck-Soldan, et al., 2011)

4.2.2   Lean-Stoichiometric Switching

The  Lean-Stoichiometric Dl  Turbo  SI  engine  configuration  is similar in all respects to  the
Stoichiometric Dl Turbo engine described above in Section 4.2.1, except that it uses a fuel-lean
air-fuel ratio with A ~  1.5 at  moderate speeds  and loads, such as those seen  on the FTP75
cycle. Elsewhere, such as on the US06 cycle, the engine switches to Stoichiometric operation
with  a three-way  catalyst, to avoid  exceeding  the expected temperature and  space velocity
limits  of the lean aftertreatment system. This mixed-mode operation allows the  engine to take
advantage of the efficiency benefits  of lean operation while mitigating  the technical challenges
associated  with lean-burn emissions  control.  Figure  4.8  illustrates  the zones of lean and
Stoichiometric operation over the engine operating map.

Fuel lean operation improves fuel consumption by increasing the relative charge volume per unit
of fuel burned, enabling a higher compression  ratio, improved charge mixing and less intake
throttling.  Nevertheless,  while  lean  operation  leads  to  efficient  oxidation   of  unburned
hydrocarbon  and carbon monoxide  pollutants in  the engine exhaust stream, the presence of
excess oxygen makes reduction of nitrogen oxides (NOX) more challenging.  Therefore, an
additional emissions control device,  such  as  a  lean NOX trap (LNT) or a  urea-based selective
catalytic reduction  (SCR)  system, would  be required  to remove  NOX from the net oxidizing
exhaust gas. The program team raised concerns about the effectiveness of these NOX removal
systems at  the high  temperatures  and exhaust gas  flow rates,  or  space velocities, easily
reached by SI engines at high engine speed or load, and also about catalyst durability under hot
29 November 2011
                                        Ricardo, Inc.
                                                                       Page 21

-------
Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
and oxidizing conditions  over the vehicle life. These  concerns suggest that  meeting criteria
pollutant levels over a drive cycle such as the US06 could be challenging to the  expected end of
life, but advances would be made over the intervening  years to make such systems production
feasible.

Therefore,  the  engine  switches to  stoichiometric operation when the  exhaust temperature
crosses a threshold above which the  NOX removal system catalysts would suffer accelerated
degradation.  This  transition  zone  between lean and stoichiometric  operation  is shown in
Figure 4.8.  At high load conditions, then, the exhaust emissions are treated using typical three-
way catalysts. The engine therefore performs exactly like the Stoichiometric Dl  Turbo engine at
higher load, but has improved  BSFC  at lower load  because it switches to lean operation. A
modest fuel consumption penalty is applied over each drive cycle to account for the use of fuel
or other reducing agent to remove NOX during lean operation.
      100% n
       90%
                   1000
                              2000
                                        3000
                                                   4000
                                                             5000
                                                                       6000
                                                                                  7000
                                      Engine Speed (RPM)
        Figure 4.8: Zone of lean operation for Lean-Stoichiometric Dl Turbo engine.

4.2.3   EGR Dl  Turbo

The EGR Dl Turbo engine is also  similar to the Stoichiometric Dl Turbo Engine described in
Section 4.2.1, except that it uses cooled external exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) to reduce
intake throttling and to manage combustion knock and exhaust temperatures. The recirculated
exhaust gas dilutes the air and fuel charge in the cylinder, thereby moderating the temperature
during  combustion and allowing operation without enrichment over a higher range of load and
speed. Additionally, the EGR mitigates the tendency for engine knock, potentially enabling a
higher  compression  ratio,  and reduces the need for throttling  at low-load operation, thereby
reducing engine pumping losses.
29 November 2011
                                        Ricardo, Inc.
Page 22

-------
Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
Dual high-pressure and low-pressure EGR loops were assumed for this engine configuration,
which will require additional components such as EGR valves and a  heat exchanger (EGR
cooler) to manage the EGR flow and temperature. EGR rates of up to 20-25% are feasible with
this  air system  (Cruff,  et a/.,  2010; Beazley, 2010). EGR use allows a  modest overall
improvement in  fuel  consumption  across  the complete  operating map compared to the
Stoichiometric Dl Turbo engine.

4.2.4  Atkinson Cycle

The  Atkinson cycle is characterized by leaving the intake valves open  during the start of the
compression stroke, which lowers the effective compression ratio of the engine back to that of
the normal SI engine, but  allows for a larger effective expansion ratio.  This change in engine
operation improves fuel consumption, but penalizes torque availability at lower engine speeds.
For this reason, Atkinson cycle  engines  are typically used  only in hybrid vehicle applications,
where  the electric machine can be used to provide extra torque during launch or other hard
acceleration events.

Separate Atkinson cycle engine fueling maps were developed for the 2020-2025 timeframe with
both CPS and DVA  valvetrains. These  fueling  maps reflect the differing net  benefits  of the
valvetrains, including actuation losses. These engines are only used with the P2  parallel and
Input Powersplit hybrid powertrains described in Section 4.3, Hybrid Technologies. The torque
curve and fueling map thus generated also reflect the benefits of so-called downspeeding, or a
lower overall operating speed range, which yields further fuel consumption benefits by reducing
frictional losses in the engine (Hohenner, 2010).

4.2.5  Advanced Diesel

The  advanced diesel engines for the 2020-2025 timeframe were developed  by starting with
existing production engines and identifying technology advances  that would  lead  to further
improvements in fuel consumption. Several of the technologies  discussed  in  Section 4.1,
Advanced  Engine  Technologies,  are  applicable  to advanced  diesels,  including  series-
sequential, two-stage  turbocharging, enhanced  EGR  and charge air cooling,  and CPS. The
composite effects of these technologies were reflected in the improvements made to existing
engine fueling maps to derive the advanced diesel engine fueling maps.

This approach led to different maps being developed for each of the vehicle classes that had
diesel  engines available: the Small Car, Full  Size Car,  Large MPV,  LOT, and LHDT. For
example, the LHDT engine torque curve and fueling maps were generated by starting with a
6.61 diesel engine typical for this class and applying the benefits of improvements in pumping
losses  or  friction to the fueling  map.  Engine displacements for the advanced diesels  were
chosen based on the current  torque and  power  levels  available from these engines, the
expected future requirements, and the effects  of applying  advanced technologies to support
further downsizing. Current diesel engines for LDVs already use advanced variable-geometry
boost systems and high-pressure common-rail  direct injection for better torque response and
specific power.  Improvements  in these  areas  are  therefore expected  to be  incremental,  by
contrast with the more extensive changes to  SI engine architectures  described above. For
example, the peak BMEP of the  advanced diesels is in  the 17-23 bar range, which is noticeably
lower than that expected for the advanced SI engines.

This difference is, however, consistent with Ricardo's expectation of the pace  and direction of
technology  development  for diesel  engines   that comply with the expected  emissions
29 November 2011                            Ricardo, Inc.                               Page 23

-------
Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
requirements defined in the  study's ground rules defined in Section 3.2, that is, emissions
standards consistent with today's California SULEV II or EPA Tier 2 Bin 2 standards. A modest
fuel consumption penalty was applied to account for the additional fuel required for particulate
filter regeneration and lean NOx aftertreatment.

4.2.6   Fueling Map Development Examples

Examples of each method of developing the  advanced engine fueling maps are presented
below. The first example shows how the EGR Dl Turbo engine described in Section 4.2.3 was
developed,  and the second, how the Atkinson engine described in Section 4.2.4 was developed.

4.2.6.1 EBDI®to EGR Dl Turbo

The EBDI®  engine (Cruff, et a/., 2010; Beazley, 2010) is a recently-developed research engine
that incorporates many of the technologies  expected  in the  EGR Dl Turbo engine and was
therefore the starting point for the advanced engine. Adjustments were then made to the EBDI®
engine fueling map to make it representative of a production engine expected in the 2020-2025
timeframe.

The current research engine has the fueling map shown in Figure 4.9, where the contours show
BSFC (in g/kW-h) as a function of engine speed and BMEP and the best BSFC point marked is
230 g/kW-h at 2000 rpm and 12 bar BMEP. This engine is designed to reach 30 bar BMEP
running on gasoline and up to 35 bar BMEP on E85. To this end, the EBDI® engine uses a 10:1
compression ratio  and the single-stage turbocharger is sized to reach 2.88 bar boost pressure.
EGR rates vary from 0% up to 23% during operation. The research engine uses direct injection
and has variable intake and exhaust cam phasing.
     3000
   2500
re
a.
j*:
:*  2000
•c
0)

0)
(A
Ł1
o

0.
HI
   1500
   1000
    500
                                                                               450

                                                                               400

                                                                               350

                                                                               300

                                                                               260

                                                                               250

                                                                               245

                                                                               240

                                                                               230

                                                                               220
         1000    1500    2000    2500   3000    3500   4000    4500   5000
                               Engine Speed [rev/min]
       Figure 4.9: BSFC map (in g/kW»h) for EBDI® engine with EGR. (Beazley, 2010)
29 November 2011
                                       Ricardo, Inc.
                                                                          Page 24

-------
Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
To translate this to the 2020-2025 timeframe's EGR Dl Turbo engine, the compression ratio
was increased to 10.5:1, which improves the fuel consumption by approximately 1% across the
map. The EGR  Dl Turbo engine also assumes use of an advanced boost system as described
in Section 4.1.3 instead of a single-stage system. Switching from the current valvetrain to the
CPS system described in Section 4.1.1.1 will provide up to 7% improvements in  the steady-
state fueling map, with the best benefits coming at moderate load and low speed as shown in
Figure  4.2.  Lastly, a  fuel consumption  improvement  of 3.5% was  applied to account for
continued application of friction reduction technologies. The final fueling map used in  the study
for the  EGR Dl Turbo engine is the result of synthesizing these technology improvements into a
cohesive whole.

4.2.6.2 Contemporary to Future Atkinson

In  the  case of  the Atkinson cycle engines, the program team started with a contemporary
example of the class  of  engine  and translated  it  into the  future by applying  technology
improvements  to an  existing fueling map. These  technology  improvements include those
described   in  Section  4.1.1, Advanced  Valvetrains,  and  Section  4.1.4,  Other  Engine
Technologies.
                          Basic Engine Operating Line
                                        Basic operating
                        1000
2000        3000       4000
  Ens ire Speed  (rpm)
       Figure 4.10: BSFC map (in g/kW»h) for Toyota Prius engine. (Muta, etal., 2004)

An example of a contemporary Atkinson cycle engine is the Toyota Prius engine as presented
by Muta, et a/. (2004), which uses the fueling map shown in Figure 4.10. To translate the current
map to the study timeframe,  several adjustments  were made to the fueling map.  First,  the
engine speed range was modified  so that the engine would tend to operate at lower speeds,
which reduces frictional losses in the engine. Additional friction reduction  improvements, such
as those described in Section 4.1.4, Other Engine Technologies, were also applied to the map.
Furthermore,  the Atkinson  engines  in  the design  space can use either of the advanced
29 November 2011
                                       Ricardo, Inc.
                                          Page 25

-------
Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
valvetrains, the CPS or DVA, which provides additional benefits to fuel consumption at part-load
conditions, especially at lower engine speeds as described in  Section  4.1.1 and  shown in
Figures 4.2 and 4.4.

These technologies together have the net effect of improving the best BSFC by about 5%, but
more importantly, of substantially improving fuel  consumption across the map,  especially at
lower-speed and moderate load operating conditions.

4.3    Hybrid Technologies

The  selection of hybrid technology for a vehicle is complex, comprising a series of engineering
trade-offs between fuel  consumption benefit and  system complexity  and cost. As the market
share of hybrid vehicles continues to grow, consumers will have a range of choices.

A wide range of hybrid configurations were considered in the initial part of the program, with the
program  studying  three  main approaches: micro hybrid  (stop-start), P2 parallel, and  Input
Powersplit. For this study,  it was assumed that  the  hybrid powertrain configurations will be
studied in all but the LHDT vehicle class as shown in Table 5.2. The implementation of these
hybrid systems  into the vehicle models is described in Section 6.8.

4.3.1  Micro Hybrid: Stop-Start

The  most basic hybridization method  shuts off the  engine during idle periods, and typically uses
an enhanced starter motor and limited use of driver comfort features during engine off, such as
the radio and some heat but not air conditioning. This approach reduces fuel use over city drive
cycles by minimizing idling,  but provides no benefit for highway driving or when air conditioning
is requested.

The  stop-start, micro hybrid approach is the lowest-cost hybrid system, and can be implemented
relatively  quickly on most vehicles  on the market today.  Stop-start systems are already in
production and the technology is maturing. Further development will lead to increased  user
acceptance,  for  example,  through  transparent  integration  with   low  impact  on  vehicle
performance or noise, vibration, and  harshness (NVH) and by  implementing  new technologies
to mitigate the effects on cabin cooling (Weissier, 2011).

The  program team has assumed that  by the  2020-2025 timeframe, all  vehicles with an
otherwise conventional powertrain will have stop-start functionality implemented. For the vehicle
models in this  study, the starter motor does not provide motive power,  but is capable of
recovering enough energy to offset accessory loads.

4.3.2  P2 Parallel Hybrid

The  P2  Parallel Hybrid  powertrain  places  an electric machine on the  transmission input,
downstream of the engine clutch. This system allows stop-start, electrical launch, launch assist,
and  regenerative braking functionality. The clutch  also allows the engine to be decoupled from
the  rear of the driveline, allowing   pure electric  propulsion,  or  electric vehicle (EV) mode
operation. This  wide application of electrical power in  a variety of vehicle operating conditions
facilitates downsizing the engine from that in the comparable conventional vehicle.

This  hybrid powertrain is expected to  significantly reduce GHG emissions, especially during city
driving. Highway driving fuel consumption is expected to improve because the electric machine
29 November 2011                            Ricardo, Inc.                               Page 26

-------
Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
in the P2  hybrid allows a smaller, more efficient internal combustion engine to be used. This
smaller  engine,  however,  may limit vehicle  performance in situations  requiring  continuous
engine power, such as a sustained hill climb.

P2 Parallel hybrids are in limited production currently,  including such vehicles  as the Hyundai
Sonata,  the Porsche Cayenne, and the Volkswagen Touareg. Prototypes have also been built
by various companies using existing off-the-shelf components.

A P2 Parallel Hybrid system can be used with an automatic transmission,  automated manual
transmission (AMI), continuously variable  transmission  (CVT),  or dual  clutch transmission
(DCT). Hellenbroich and Rosenburg (2009)  describe a P2 variant with AMI, for example. For
this program, the P2 Parallel Hybrid powertrain  was modeled using the DCT, which has fixed
gear ratios and no torque converter, as described in Section 4.4.2.

4.3.3 Input Powersplit

The  simplest Powersplit hybrid configuration replaces the vehicle's transmission with a  single
planetary  gearset  and  two electrical  machines connected  to  the  planetary  gearset. The
planetary gearset splits engine power  between the  mechanical path and the electrical path to
achieve  a continuously variable transmission. In some Input Powersplit configurations, a second
planetary gearset is used to speed up one of the electrical machines while retaining the CVT
functionality.  The  Toyota  Prius  and  the Ford Hybrid Escape  are two examples of  Input
Powersplit hybrid vehicles currently sold in the  US.

With the appropriate electric accessories, the  Input Powersplit system  allows  for EV  mode
operation,  as well as stop-start operation, electric launch,  launch  assist, and regenerative
braking. In addition, the system allows for engine downsizing to help reduce fuel consumption,
although the smaller engine may limit vehicle performance in situations requiring  continuous
engine  power,  such as a  sustained  hill climb. The  Powersplit system  provides  significant
improvements in fuel consumption  in city driving. During  highway  cycles,  the  benefits of
regenerative braking and engine start-stop are reduced, although the CVT feature of the engine
helps during the highway cycle as the engine is kept at an efficient operating  point.

4.4    Transmission Technologies

The  U.S. vehicle market is currently dominated by automatic transmissions, with a development
emphasis  on increasing the launch-assist device efficiency  and on increasing the number of
gear ratios to keep the engine operating in regions of high efficiency.  Nevertheless,  dual  clutch
transmissions (DCT) are expected to be adopted over the  next 10 to 15 years because of their
potential to  further improve fuel economy and maintain drivability. CVTs tend to have higher
friction than DCTs and provide a different driving experience than stepped  transmissions.
Although CVTs are a current production technology,  CVTs were not included in the scope of this
study. The baseline 6-speed transmissions used the  same  gear ratios  as the  previous fuel
economy  study  by Ricardo and  PQA,  (2008)  to  maintain  continuity between  improvement
projections. The 6-speed ratios have a total ratio  span of 6.05 which is typical of  current 6-speed
transmissions that were designed for fuel economy and performance improvements over their 4-
speed or 5-speed  predecessors. The 8-speed ratios offer a first gear ratio that  has improved
launch torque multiplication over the 6-speed and two overdrive ratios that provide lower engine
rpm than the 6-speed ratios. The gear step progression of the 8-speed transmission is similar to
current production and provides acceptable drivability, and is shown in Table 6.3.
29 November 2011                            Ricardo, Inc.                               Page 27

-------
Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
The  development of DCT technology  is expected to be implemented  in the U.S. based on
experience with European and Japanese applications. Some vehicles with DCTs are entering
volume  production, such as  the  Ford Fiesta,  Ford  Focus,  and  VW  Passat.  Automatic
transmissions  too  are  still  being  developed and  refined,  with  new  technologies  being
implemented in luxury vehicles, and then cascaded down to other vehicle classes. Given that
94% of current U.S. transmissions are  automatics, efficiency improvements that mitigate GHG
emissions are expected to come from the following:
   •  Increased gear count from 4-6 currently to 7 or 8 by 2020-2025
   •  Improved kinematic design
   •  Component efficiency improvement or alternative technologies
   •  Launch devices
   •  Dry sump technology

The various base transmission technologies are described, followed  by  launch device options,
and, finally, other technologies expected to improve transmission efficiency. The effects of these
various technologies on transmission efficiency were incorporated into the models as described
in Section 6.4,  Transmission Models.

4.4.1  Automatic Transmission

The  automatic transmission  is hydraulically  operated,  and uses a fluid coupling or  torque
converter and  a set of gearsets to provide a range of gear ratios. Viscous losses in the torque
converter decrease the efficiency  of the automatic  transmission. For the study timeframe,  it was
assumed that  eight-speed automatic transmissions will  be in common use,  as  this supports
more efficient operation. The  Small Car is an exception, and was assumed to only have enough
package  space to support a  six-speed transmission.  For the 2020-2025 timeframe, losses in
advanced automatic transmissions are  expected to be about 20-33% lower than the losses in
current automatic transmissions from the application  of the specific technologies  described in
Section 4.4. The overall benefits are compiled from Ricardo's confidential business information
on transmission  systems. Additional benefits will be  realized by  having more  gear  ratios
available to help maintain the engine near its best operating condition.

4.4.2  Dual Clutch Transmission (DCT)

The DCT has two separate gearsets operating in  tandem, one with even gears and the  other,
odd. As  the gear changes,  one  clutch engages  as  the other disengages, thereby reducing
torque interrupt and improving shift quality,  making it more like an automatic transmission. The
DCT, however, does not require a torque converter which improves its efficiency compared to
an automatic transmission, and may use either wet or dry type launch clutches. For the study
timeframe,  energy losses in both wet clutch and dry clutch DCTs are expected to be 40-50%
lower than in  current  automatic transmissions. Additional  benefits will  be  realized by  having
more gear ratios available to  help keep  the engine near its best operating condition. As with the
automatic transmission, the Small Car was assumed to only have package  space for  a six-
speed transmission. An overall comparison  of the  efficiency of the stepped-gear transmissions
is shown in Figure 4.11.
29 November 2011                           Ricardo, Inc.                               Page 28

-------
Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
      5.000
             4.500
                    4.000
                            3.500
                                   J.OOO
                              -2020 AT
                                           2,500

                                         Gear Ratio


                                        -2020 DCT
                                                  2.000
                                                         1.500
                                                                 1.000
                                                                        0,500
                                                                               0.000
                                                   2010 Baseline AT
         Figure 4.11: Comparison of Automatic and DCT Transmission Efficiencies

4.4.3  Launch Device: Wet Clutch

A wet clutch provides torque transmission during operation by means of friction action between
surfaces wetted by a lubricant. The lubricant is required for cooling during gear shifts when the
clutch is slipping in larger LDV classes. Wet clutch DCTs provide added durability for the higher
torque requirements of larger LDVs, although a secondary lubrication system is needed for the
actuation requirements. As a result, wet clutch systems are expected to be heavier, cost more,
and be less efficient than dry clutch systems. An example of a wet clutch DCT system is shown
in Figure 4.12.

By the 2020-2025 timeframe, wet clutch DCTs are expected to develop into so-called damp
clutch DCTs, which approach the efficiency of a dry clutch with the longevity and higher torque
capacity of a wet clutch.  In damp clutch DCTs, a limited spray is applied to cool the  clutch
materials. A damp clutch  requires a lubrication system  but  is more efficient  due to improved
control, leading to reduced windage and churning losses.

4.4.4  Launch Device: Dry Clutch Advancements

The standard dry clutch requires advanced materials to dissipate heat and prevent slipping. The
thermal load  resulting from engagement  prevents dry clutches from being used in  high torque
and heavy duty cycle applications, even  though they are more efficient since  they significantly
reduce parasitic shear fluid losses and do not require an additional lubrication system. The GHG
emissions benefit of a dry clutch over a wet clutch  should  be realized at launch and during
transient driving,  thus  primarily  for city driving. Advancements in materials or electric assist
could enable this technology to be used in larger LDVs and more severe  duty  cycles by the
study timeframe, but is generally assumed to be prevalent in the smaller vehicle classes.
29 November 2011
                                         Ricardo, Inc.
Page 29

-------
Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
   Figure 4.12: Typical transverse wet clutch DCT arrangement. (Ricardo and PQA, 2008)

4.4.5   Launch Device: Multi-Damper Torque Converter

Dampers added to the torque converter enable a lower lockup speed, therefore decreasing the
more  fuel-intensive period of hydrodynamic  power  transfer.  Multi-damper  systems provide
earlier torque converter clutch engagement; however, drivability and limited ratio coverage have
limited the  deployment of this technology to date.  The technology must be  integrated during
transmission  design.  The GHG  emissions benefit should come from  reduced slippage and
smoother shifting.

4.4.6   Shifting Clutch Technology

Shift clutch technology improves the thermal capacity of the shifting clutch to reduce plate count
and lower clutch losses  during shifting. Reducing the number of plates for the shifting process
and reducing the hydraulic cooling requirements will increase  the overall transmission efficiency
for  similar  drivability  characteristics.  Technology deployment has  been limited by industry
prioritization of drivability over shift efficiency, especially since shift events  are a very  small
portion of typical driving. The technology will be best suited to smaller  vehicle segments
because  of reduced drivability expectations—this technology may not be suitable for higher
torque applications.

4.4.7   Improved Kinematic Design

Improved kinematic design uses analysis to improve the design for efficiency by selecting the
kinematic  relationships   that  optimize  the  part  operational  speeds  and  torques.  Large
improvements in efficiency have been noted for  clean sheet designs for six-speed  and eight-
speed transmissions.  This approach will  provide a GHG emissions benefit across  all vehicle
classes and operating conditions.
29 November 2011
                                        Ricardo, Inc.
Page 30

-------
Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
4.4.8   Dry Sump

A dry sump lubrication system provides benefits by keeping  the rotating members out of oil,
which  reduces losses due to windage and  churning. This approach will provide a GHG
emissions benefit across all vehicle classes, with the best benefits at higher speeds.

4.4.9   Efficient Components

Continuous improvement in seals, bearings and clutches aimed at reducing drag in the system
should provide GHG emissions benefits without compromising transmission performance.

4.4.10 Super Finishing

This technology approach  chemically treats internal gearbox parts for improved surface finish.
The improved surface finish reduces drag which increases efficiency  over the  full range of
operation.

4.4.11  Lubrication

New developments in base oils and additive packages will reduce oil viscosity while maintaining
temperature requirements,  thereby  improving transmission  efficiency over  the full range of
operation.

4.5    Vehicle Technologies

Several vehicle technologies were  also considered for the study to the extent that they help
support future ranges of vehicle mass, aerodynamic drag, and rolling resistance for each of the
vehicle classes in the study. The potential levels of improvement for these "road load reduction"
technologies  were  not explicitly  quantified;  rather,  they were included  as  independent input
variables within the complex systems modeling approach.

Technologies considered include mass reduction through use  of advanced materials with  a
higher strength to mass ratio  and through consolidation and  optimization of components  and
systems. Aerodynamic drag is expected to see improvements through adoption of both passive
and active  aerodynamic  features  on  vehicles  in the  2020-2025  timeframe.  Continued
improvement in tire design  is expected to reduce rolling resistance and thereby provide a benefit
to fuel consumption.

In addition, vehicle accessory systems such as the cooling pumps and power steering systems
are expected to become electrified by the 2020-2025 timeframe. These electrified accessories
should  reduce the power required to keep  them  active,  which will  also  improve  fuel
consumption, and are described in greater detail below.

4.5.1   Intelligent Cooling Systems

Intelligent cooling systems use an electric coolant pump to circulate engine coolant, removing
the power required for this pump from the FEAD. Removing the coolant pump from the FEAD
also enables independent  pump  speed  control. Rather than running at a fixed multiple of the
engine speed, the coolant pump can spin  at the  appropriate  speed for the current cooling
requirements. Standard cooling systems are sized to  provide cooling at maximum load  and
ambient  conditions, but most  vehicles  only  rarely operate  under these extreme  conditions.
29 November 2011                            Ricardo, Inc.                              Page 31

-------
      Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
      Intelligent cooling also enables quicker warm-up of the engine by controlling coolant flow. This
      reduces engine friction  by increasing engine temperature during the warm up process. The
      effects of the cooling system performance were integrated into the vehicle performance model.

      Ricardo estimates this technology will lower fuel consumption over the FTP cycle.  BMW is
      implementing this technology on their twin-turbo 3-L inline-6 cylinder engine, introduced in 2007
      in their 335i model. This technology is projected to be  readily available by the 2020-2025
      timeframe.

      4.5.2   Electric Power Assisted Steering

      Electric Power Assisted Steering (EPAS) uses either rack or column-drive electric motors to
      assist driver effort instead of a hydraulic power assist system.  EPAS replaces the engine-driven
      hydraulic pump, hydraulic hoses, fluid reservoir, fluid, and hydraulic rack. The  efficiency of this
      system is a result of reduced FEAD losses and improved energy management that comes from
      decoupling  the  load  from the engine. This technology is currently available for small and
      medium sized  passenger vehicles, and  it is likely that  this will be commercially available  for
      LDVs up to the LOT class by the  2020-2025 timeframe. This technology is required for vehicles
      with any electrical launch or EV mobility, so that the vehicle can be steered during EV mode.


5.     TECHNOLOGY BUNDLES AND SIMULATION MATRICES

      The program team and EPA, with input from the Advisory Committee, bundled  the technologies
      described in Chapter 4, Technology Review, into a set of technology packages to be evaluated
      in the seven LDV classes described in Section 2.2, Ground Rules for Study. These LDV classes
      are  Small  Car, Standard Car,  Small MPV, Full Size  Car,  Large MPV, LOT,  and  LHDT.
      Engineering judgment was used to select technology combinations  deemed most appropriate
      for each vehicle class. For example, the larger LDV classes were assumed to have wet clutch
      DCTs to accommodate the higher torques from their engines.

      5.1    Technology Options Considered

      Definitions  of  the  hybrid  powertrain, engine,  and transmission technology packages   are
      presented in Tables 5.1-5.3. The engine technologies are defined in Table 5.1;  hybrids, in Table
      5.2; and transmissions,  in Table 5.3. Many of the engines in Table  5.1 use some measure of
      internal EGR, but for this table  "Yes" means significant EGR flow through an external EGR
      system. All  of the advanced transmissions in Table 5.3  include the effects of  the transmission
      technologies described  in Section 4.4,  including  dry sump,  improved component efficiency,
      improved kinematic design, super finish, and advanced driveline lubricants.

      5.2    Vehicle configurations and technology combinations

      Vehicles were assessed using three basic powertrain configurations: conventional stop-start,  P2
      hybrid,  and Input Powersplit hybrid.  Each vehicle class considered in the  study was  modeled
      with  a  set of technology  options, as shown  in  Table 5.4 for the baseline and conventional
      powertrains and Table 5.5 for the hybrid powertrains. Each of the 2020 engines  marked for a
      given vehicle class in Table 5.4 was paired with each of the advanced transmissions marked for
      the  same  vehicle  class.  Tables  5.4 and  5.5  also  show the ranges  of the  continuous
      parameters—expressed as a percentage of the nominal value—used in the DoE study for  the
      conventional and hybrid powertrains,  respectively. The  ranges were kept  purposely broad, to
      29 November 2011                           Ricardo, Inc.                              Page 32

-------
Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
cover the entire span of practical powertrain design options, with some added margin to allow a
full analysis of parametric trends.

                     Table 5.1: Engine technology package definition.
Engine
2010 Baseline
Stoich Dl Turbo
Lean-Stoich Dl Turbo
EGR Dl Turbo
Atkinson
Diesel
Air
System
NA
Boost
Boost
Boost
NA
Boost
Fuel
Injection
PFI
Dl
Dl
Dl
Dl
Dl
EGR
No
No
No
Yes
No
Yes
Valvetrain
CPS DVA
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
No
No
No
Yes
No
                      Table 5.2: Hybrid technology package definition.
Function
Engine idle-off
Launch assist
Regeneration
EV mode
CVT (Electronic)
Power steering
Engine coolant pump
Air conditioning
Brake
2010 Baseline
No
No
No
No
No
Belt
Belt
Belt
Standard
Powertrain Configuration
Stop-Start P2 Parallel
Yes Yes
No Yes
No Yes
No Yes
No No
Electrical Electrical
Belt Electrical
Belt Electrical
Standard Blended
Powersplit
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Electrical
Electrical
Electrical
Blended
                  Table 5.3: Transmission technology package definition.
Transmission
Baseline Automatic
Advanced Automatic
Dry clutch DCT
Wet clutch DCT
Launch Device
Torque Converter
Multidamper Control
None
None
Clutch
Hydraulic
Hydraulic
Advanced Dry
Advanced Damp
29 November 2011
                                         Ricardo, Inc.
Page 33

-------
Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
         Table 5.4: Baseline and Conventional Stop-Start vehicle simulation matrix.







Vehicle Class
Small Car
Standard Car
Small MPV
Full Size Car
Large MPV
LOT
LHDT
08
a) <2
C 0> H
L1J <Ł 0
Q) /A *j*
•- 
W Q
•Ł si
•g *-
< 5
X
X
X
X
X
X

Parameter
Engine Displacement
Final Drive Ratio
Rolling Resistance
Aerodynamic Drag
Mass
Electric Machine Size
DoE Ra
P2 Hybrid
50 150
75 125
70 100
70 100
60 120
50 300
nge (%)
Powersplit
50 125
75 125
70 100
70 100
60 120
50 150
29 November 2011
                                          Ricardo, Inc.
Page 34

-------
      Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
6.     VEHICLE MODEL

      Vehicle  models  were developed  to explore the complete  design space  defined  by  the
      technologies,  vehicle  classes,  and powertrain architectures included for  the 2020-2025
      timeframe. The modeling  process started by  developing baseline models to compare against
      data for current (2010) vehicles, as described in Section 6.1, Baseline Conventional  Vehicle
      Models,  and Section 6.2,  Baseline  Hybrid Vehicle Models.  Specific subsystems were  also
      implemented into the  simulation package  for the study,  and these modeling  activities  are
      described in Sections 6.3-6.8.

      6.1    Baseline Conventional Vehicle Models

      For each of the seven LDV classes considered in this  project, vehicle models were developed
      and correlated to a corresponding  2010 exemplar for each  LDV  class for the purposes of
      establishing a comparison against known vehicle data. A detailed comparison between baseline
      model results and vehicle test data were used to validate the models. These correlation models
      were then modified to form the 2010 baseline models by converting all of them to use  a 2010-
      level six-speed automatic transmission and stop-start  systems. These baseline models,  while
      representing an advance from current production vehicles, provide a better basis for comparison
      with the advanced LDVs for the 2020-2025 timeframe.

      The starting point for the vehicle models was to use the existing road-load coefficients from the
      EPA Test Car List, which are represented as the target terms for the chassis dynamometer.
      Known as target A-B-C terms, the coefficients were used to derive the physical properties of
      rolling resistance, linear losses, and aerodynamic drag.  These properties were then used in the
      simulation to provide the appropriate load on the vehicle at any given speed.

      A physics-based vehicle and powertrain system model such as the one shown in Figure  6.1 was
      developed  and  implemented  in  MSC.EasyS™. MSC.EasyS™ is  a commercially available
      software package widely used  in industry for vehicle system analysis, which models the physics
      in the vehicle powertrain during a drive cycle. Examples of vehicle performance simulation using
      MSC.EasyS™ include work by Anderson, et a/. (2005)  and Fulem, et a/.  (2006), as well as the
      previous EPA study for 2012-2016 LDV configurations  (Ricardo  and PQA,  2008).  Torque
      reactions are simulated from the engine through the transmission and driveline to the  wheels.
      The model reacts to simulated  driver inputs to the accelerator or brake pedals, thus enabling the
      actual vehicle acceleration  to be determined based on  a realistic control strategy. The model is
      divided into a number of subsystem  models. Within each subsystem the  model  determines key
      component  outputs such  as  torque, speeds, and  heat  rejection,  and from  these outputs,
      appropriate subsystem efficiencies can be calculated or reviewed as part of a quality audit.

      The seven vehicle classes considered in this study are shown in Table 6.1, along with the
      baseline vehicles for each class. Each of the baseline exemplar vehicle models had  vehicle-
      specific vehicle, engine, and transmission model parameters. The models were exercised over
      the  FTP75 and HWFET fuel economy drive  cycles, and the  results compared with the  EPA
      Vehicle Certification Database (Test Car List)  fuel economy  data  for  each of the  baseline
      exemplar vehicles.
      29 November 2011                           Ricardo, Inc.                                  35

-------
Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
       Engine
    Accessories
                            DJrjvetnjin
                   Figure 6.1: MSC.EasyS conventional vehicle model.

                Table 6.1: Vehicle classes and baseline exemplar vehicles.
                       Vehicle Class
   Baseline Exemplar
                  Small car
                  Standard car
                  Small MPV
                  Full sized car
                  Large MPV
                  LOT
                  LHDT
Toyota Yaris
Toyota Camry
Saturn Vue
Chrysler 300
Dodge Grand Caravan
Ford F150
Chevy Silverado 3500HD
6.2    Baseline Hybrid Vehicle Models

For each hybrid technology, Ricardo developed a baseline model to calibrate the hybrid control
strategy and  vehicle, engine, and driveline parameters. As  with the conventional  vehicles
described in Section 6.1, a full physical model of each baseline hybrid vehicle was developed
and implemented in MSC.EasyS™. The hybrid control algorithms are also implemented in the
respective MSC.EasyS™ models. The vehicles were modeled using published  information from
various sources and Ricardo proprietary data.

6.3    Engine Models

The engines considered in the design space are defined by their torque curve, fueling map, and
other input parameters. For the  2010 baseline vehicles, the engine fueling maps and related
parameters were developed for each specific baseline exemplar vehicle. For the engines used
in the 2020-2025 vehicles, reference engine models were developed, which were then scaled
to each of the LDV classes.
29 November 2011
                                       Ricardo, Inc.
                                   Page 36

-------
Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
As described in Section 4.2, Engine Configurations, and illustrated in Section 4.2.6, Fueling Map
Development Examples, the program team used two methods to develop the engine models for
the 2020-2025 timeframe. The first was to look at the reported performance of current research
engines,  and translate these to the production engines of the 2020-2025 timeframe. With this
method,  current  research engines would be refined to meet production  standards, including
manufacturability, cost,  and durability. The second method was to start from current production
engines and then determine a pathway of technology improvements over the next 10-15 years
that would lead to an appropriate engine configuration for the 2020-2025 timeframe.

The  fueling  maps and  other engine model parameters used  in the  study were based  on
published data and Ricardo proprietary data. These initial maps were then developed into a
map reflecting the  effects on overall  engine performance  of the combination of the future
technologies considered. Specifically, the effects of the valve actuation system, fueling system,
anti-knock calibration, and boost system were integrated into  the final torque curves and fueling
maps,  therefore  subsystem  performance maps,  such as turbine and compressor efficiency
maps, are not relevant to this study.

Each proposed map was then reviewed and approved by EPA and the Advisory Committee.
This process was repeated for each  of the engine technologies  included  in the simulation
matrix, as shown  in Tables  5.4 and  5.5  for  conventional  stop-start  and hybrid  powertrain
configurations, respectively.

Engine downsizing effects were captured using a standard engineering method, by changing
the engine displacement in the  given  vehicle.  This approach  assumes that the  downsized
engines  have  the  same brake mean  effective pressure (BMEP), which scales the engine's
delivered torque  by the  engine swept volume, or displacement. The BSFC of the  scaled engine
map is also adjusted by a  factor that accounts for the change in heat loss that comes with
decreasing the cylinder volume,  and thereby  increasing the surface to volume  ratio of the
cylinder.  These  adjustment factors are plotted in Figure 6.2,  and are drawn  from Ricardo
proprietary data on the effect of displacement on BSFC. The minimum number of cylinders in an
engine was set  to three,  and  the  minimum  per-cylinder volume,  to  0.225  liters.  These
constraints then set the  minimum engine displacement in the design space to 0.675 liters.

Engine efficiency is therefore function  of engine speed and  BMEP, with specific fueling  rates
(mass per unit time) calculated from the torque.  Thus, downsizing the engine directly scales the
delivered torque, and the fueling map is adjusted accordingly.  The engine speed range was held
constant over the engine displacement ranges of interest.

Turbo lag was represented in the model by applying a first order transfer function between the
driver power command  and the supplied engine power at a given speed. This transfer function
was  only used during the performance cycle, which is a hard acceleration from a full stop used
to assess vehicle acceleration performance.  The transfer function approximates the torque rise
rate  expected  in the engines with turbocharger systems during vehicle launch. Adjusting the
time constant in the transfer function allowed the acceleration performance to see the effect of
turbo lag. A time constant  of 1.5 seconds  was selected to represent the  expected delay in
torque  rise on  the advanced, boosted engines from the spool up of the turbine. Referring back
to the General Motors 2.0-t SIDI  engine, turbo  transient performance is also characterized by
Schmuck-Soldan,  et al. (2011), as shown in Figure 4.5. The transient response depicted here
is in line with the representation  used in this  study. EPA also reviewed its own  engine
development data and corroborated the 1.5 second time constant.
29 November 2011                            Ricardo, Inc.                                  37

-------
Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
                                                            •SI Engine
                                                            •Cl Engine
           250    300
350
                                   400    450     500     550     600     650
                                   Volume per cylinder
               Figure 6.2: Change in BSFC resulting from cylinder heat loss.

6.3.1   Warm-up Methodology

A consistent warm-up modeling methodology was developed for the study to account for the
benefits of an electrical water pump and of warm restart for the advanced vehicles. To account
for engine warm-up effects, Ricardo used company proprietary data to develop an engine warm-
up profile. This engine warm-up profile is used to increase the fueling requirements during the
cold start portion  of the  FTP75 drive cycle.  This  correction  factor for  increased  fueling
requirements is applied to the fuel flow calculated during  the warm-up period in the FTP75 drive
cycle. Section 6.7 provides additional details on how this correction factor was modeled.

6.3.2   Accessories Models

Parasitic loads from  the alternator were  assumed constant  over the drive  cycles and were
included in the engine model. Alternator efficiency was assumed to be 55% for baseline vehicle
simulations.  Ricardo  suggested a 70% efficient alternator in all  of  the advanced technology
package simulations to represent future alternator design improvements. EPA agreed that this
assumption was consistent with confidential industry projections.

Power-assisted  steering (PAS) systems—full electric  or electric  hydraulic—were modeled as
being independent of engine speed and were  included in the engine model for each baseline
vehicle. The EPAS systems assumed no  engine parasitic loads on  the EPA drive cycles  and
acceleration performance  cycles, which  require no  steering input. All advanced package
simulations included the benefit of EPAS.  The LHDT and LOT classes used  electric hydraulic
PAS, whereas the five smaller vehicle classes used full electric PAS.
29 November 2011
                                       Ricardo, Inc.
                                                   Page 38

-------
Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
The  LOT and  LHDT models also include engine parasitic losses due to a belt-driven engine
cooling fan. The other vehicles were assumed to have electric radiator fans, with the load being
drive cycle dependent and added to the vehicle's base electrical load. These accessory loads
are shown in Tables 6.3 and 6.4.

          Table 6.3: Accessory loads for conventional stop-start and P2 hybrids.
Vehicle Class
Small car
Standard car
Small MPV
Full sized car
Large MPV
LOT
LHDT
Conventional Accessories (W)
FTP HWFET
Base cooling fan cooling fan
153
153
153
153
153
153
153
127
127
127
127
127
*
**
280
280
280
280
280
*
**
P2 Hybrid Accessories (W)
FTP HWFET
Base cooling fan cooling fan
84
84
84
84
84
84
70
70
70
70
70
*
154
154
154
154
154
*
— — —
                Table 6.4: Mechanical cooling fan loads for LOT and LHDT.
Engine
Speed (rpm)
500
1000
2000
2500
6200
Cooling Fan (W)
*LDT **LHDT
242 290
500 600
1058 1270
1323 1588
3550 4260
Current production  cars have  begun  incorporating  advanced  alternator  control to capture
braking energy through electrical power generation. This is done by running the alternator near
or at full  capacity  to  apply more  load on  the  engine when the driver demands vehicle
deceleration. It is believed that this feature will be widespread in the near future and, hence, the
study captures it by  incorporating this function into the Conventional Stop-Start model. As in the
earlier study (Ricardo and PQA, 2008), the alternator efficiency was increased to 70% to reflect
an improved efficiency design for 2020 vehicle configurations. The advanced alternator control
strategy monitors vehicle brake events and captures braking energy when available. The control
strategy also limits the maximum power capture to 2800 Watts based on the assumption that
the advanced  alternator is limited to 200 Amps  at  14  Volts charging for a standard  (12V)
advanced  glass-mat battery.  By integrating  power, energy  is accumulated from  every  brake
event and when there is available  "stored" brake energy,  the  control  strategy switches the
parasitic draw  from  the  engine to the battery until the accrued energy is consumed, at which
point the load  switches back to the engine. For the five smaller LDV classes, both the fan and
base electrical loads are included  in  the advanced charging system as electric  fans are
employed. The system will only benefit the two truck classes, LOT  and LHDT, in terms of base
electrical load as these vehicle classes use mechanical fans.
29 November 2011
                                        Ricardo, Inc.
Page 39

-------
Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
6.4    Transmission Models

The transmission models use a simplified efficiency curve, where the gearbox efficiency is a
function of gear ratio, as shown in Figure 4.11. Efficiencies for each gear ratio were calculated
based  on data from several transmission and final drive gear tests, were averaged over the
expected speed and load ranges for the transmission in a given gear, and incorporate hydraulic
pumping losses. Transmission  efficiencies  were calculated  to represent the average of the
leading edge for today's industry and not one particular manufacturer's design.

Different efficiency  curves were mapped for  planetary,  automatics,  and dual-clutch, with the
DCT efficiency modified depending on whether a dry or wet clutch is used. Advanced automatic
transmission designs  are projected to reduce  losses  by 20-33% from  current automatic
transmissions. In  addition,  the advanced automatic transmissions  use  advanced  torque
converters, described  below in Section 6.5. Wet clutch DCT efficiencies are also projected to
approach current dry clutch DCT efficiencies.

The gear ratios  chosen for  the six and eight speed  advanced  transmission are taken from
current production values for gear  ratios. These are shown below in Table 6.5.  Moreover,
transmission  inertias   were  adapted   from   Ricardo  proprietary  data   on contemporary
transmissions and reflect the effects of the technologies described  in Sections 4.4.6-4.4.11.

     Table 6.5: Transmission gear ratios for six-speed and eight-speed transmissions.
Gear
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Ratio
8 Spd Advanced
4.700
3.130
2.100
1.670
1.290
1.000
0.840
0.670
6 Spd Baseline
4.148
2.370
1.556
1.155
0.859
0.686


In anticipation of future  technology  packages, it is expected that some advanced level of
transmission shift optimization will be implemented in year 2020-2025 vehicles. For the 2020-
2025   Conventional  Stop-Start   architecture,   an  advanced transmission  controller  was
implemented  to determine the most  favorable  gear for a given driver input and vehicle road
load. This approach takes the place of predefined calibration shift maps based on throttle and
vehicle speed.

The advanced transmission shift optimization strategy tries to keep the engine operating near its
most efficient point for a given power demand.  In this way, the new shift controller emulates a
traditional CVT by selecting the  best gear ratio for  fuel  economy at a given required vehicle
power level. In conjunction, gear efficiency of the desired gear is also taken into account.  More
often than not, the optimal gear ratio will be in between  two  of the fixed ratios, and the shift
optimizer will then decide when to shift up or down  based on a tunable  shift setting. This will
enable the shift optimizer to make proper shift  decisions based on the type of vehicle and the
desired aggressiveness of the shift  pattern. To protect against operating conditions out of
normal  range, several key parameters were  identified, such  as maximum  engine speed,
minimum lugging  speed, and minimum delay between shifts. For automatic transmissions, the
29 November 2011
                                        Ricardo, Inc.
Page 40

-------
Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
torque converter is also controlled by the shift optimizer, with full lockup only achievable when
the transmission is  not in first gear. Shift time for all transmissions was kept constant at 0.7
second duration as the sensitivity of  this parameter was not enough  to alter fuel economy
predictions over the EPA drive cycles.  Furthermore, torque interrupt during  shift  is handled
automatically by the MSC.EasyS™ model component. During development of this  strategy, it
was noted that fuel economy benefits of up to 5% can be obtained when compared to traditional
shift maps. Figure 6.4 compares the desired gear ratio from a CVT and the comparable DCT
fixed gear ratio selected by the shift optimizer strategy.
              5


            4.5


              4
            3.5


              3


            2.5


              2


            1.5


              1


            0.5
II
                       200
                               400
                                CVT
                                        600      800
                                          Time [s]
                                                        1000
                                                                 1200
                                                                          1400
       DCT (shift optimizer)
       Figure 6.4: Comparison of CVT and optimized DCT gear ratios over drive cycle.

Analysis of the optimized  shift strategy model output  data shows no evidence to suggest an
increase in  shift  busyness compared to a baseline  transmission shift strategy for a given
gearset.  Figure 6.5 shows transmission gear plotted over time for a section of the FTP drive
cycle for the 2020 Small Car with 6-speed automatic transmission  (and stoichiometric Dl turbo
engine) nominal run with optimized shifting,  compared to the 2010 Small Car baseline.  For the
complete FTP cycle, the baseline vehicle shifted a total of 238 times, whereas the 2020 vehicle
with optimized shifting strategy  shifted 228 times—in this case,  leading to a decrease in  shift
busyness.
29 November 2011
                                        Ricardo, Inc.
                                        Page 41

-------
Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
      60
      50
      40
•n
QJ
S  30
      20
      10
       0
                                                                    re
                                                                    oj
                                                                    13
                                                                     —Veh speed
                                                                     —6-spd baseline

                                                                      —6-spd optimized
          0        100       200       300

                                Test time [s)
                                               400
500
        Figure 6.5: Comparison of shift activity for traditional and optimized shifting
                                       strategies.

6.5    Torque Converter Models

Torque converter characteristics  curves for torque  ratio and K-factor were generated using
typical industry standards  for efficiency.  Each vehicle's torque  converter  characteristics  for
torque ratio and K-factor were tailored  for the application  based on Ricardo experience with
production systems. Impeller and turbine rotational inertias are also input to the model and were
estimated based  upon Ricardo experience and benchmarking data. Vehicle simulations with
advanced automatic transmissions include a slight improvement in torque converter efficiency.

A  lockup  clutch model was used with all torque  converters and  was of sufficient capacity to
prevent clutch slip during  all  simulation conditions. For the baseline  models  with  six-speed
automatics, lockup was allowed in fourth, fifth,  and sixth gears. During light throttle conditions a
minimum  engine  operating speed  of 1400  rpm for 13  engines, 1300  rpm for 14 engines,
1200 rpm for V6 engines, and 1100 rpm for V8 engines  with the converter  clutch locked was
considered in developing the baseline lock/unlock maps. The advanced automatic transmission
applications allow torque converter lockup in any gear except first gear, up to sixth for the Small
Car or eighth for the other LDV classes. This aggressive lockup strategy minimizes losses in  the
torque converter.

6.6    Final Drive Differential Model

Baseline final drive ratios were taken from published information and driveline efficiencies and
spin losses were estimated based upon Ricardo experience  for typical industry differentials. The
spin losses of the 4-wheel-drive LOT and LHDT front axle  and transfer case were included in
the model to capture the fuel  economy and performance  of the  4-wheel-drive  powertrain
29 November 2011
                                         Ricardo, Inc.
                                                                             Page 42

-------
Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
operating in 2-wheel-drive mode. This approach is similar to the EPA procedure for emissions
and fuel economy certification testing.

6.7    Driver Model

The vehicle model is forward facing and has a model for the driver. The driver model applies the
throttle or brake pedal as needed to meet the required speed defined by the vehicle drive cycle
within the allowed legislative error. This allows the modeling of the actual vehicle response to
meet the target drive cycle.

The driver  model contains  the drive cycle time/velocity trace, controls  the throttle and brake
functions, and maintains vehicle speed to the desired set point. Vehicle simulations for fuel
economy were conducted over the EPA FTP75 (city), HWFET (highway) and US06 drive cycles.
The FTP75 cycle consists of three "bags" for a total of 11.041 miles on the  conventional
vehicles and an additional  bag 4 on hybrid vehicles for  a total  of  14.9 miles.  A ten minute
engine-off soak is performed between bags 2 and 3 (after 1372 seconds of testing). A bag 1
correction factor  is applied to  the simulated  "hot" fuel  economy  result of the vehicles to
approximate warm-up conditions  of increased engine  and driveline friction  and sub-optimal
combustion. The correction  factor reduces the fuel economy results of the FTP75 bag 1 portion
of the drive cycle by 20% on the current baseline vehicles and 10% on 2020-2025 vehicles that
take advantage of fast warm-up technologies.

6.8    Hybrid Models

The hybrid models  include  all of the conventional  vehicle components with the addition or
replacement of components for electric motor-generators, high voltage battery,  high voltage
battery controller/bus,  transmission,  regenerative braking and hybrid supervisory controller.  Of
these, the critical  systems for the model were the electric  machines (motor-generators), power
electronics, and high-voltage battery system. For each of these systems,  current, state of the art
technologies such as those described in Staunton, et al. (2006) or Burress, et al. (2008) were
adapted to an advanced, 2020-2025 version of the system.

Technology improvements  applied  included decreasing  losses in the electric  machine and
power electronics to represent continued  improvements in technology and implementation,  so
that a contemporary motor-inverter efficiency map such as that shown in Figure 6.6 would end
up with higher peak efficiency and  a broader island of good efficiency. There are several
potential sources of losses in both the inverter and the motor, and the program team assumed
each source would be improved somewhat, leading to an overall 10% reduction in losses in the
inverter and an overall 25%  reduction in losses in the motor.

As for the battery pack, a ground rule of the study is that the battery pack would  use a generic
lithium ion chemistry representative  of what is expected to be in production by the 2020-2025
timeframe.  The assumptions for this future class of batteries include a lower overall internal
resistance.  Likewise, future hybrid vehicles are  assumed to use 40% of  the overall SOC range
of the pack, which will  reduce the  overall battery pack size for a  given energy storage
requirement. The capacity of the  battery packs in the model was assumed to be sufficiently
large that it did not limit the vehicle performance. The electric machines were  swept over a
sufficiently  large range such that the design space included configurations where 90% of the
mechanical braking  energy on the US06 to be captured  by the hybrid  electrical  system. The
electrical system architecture assumes a DC/DC converter between the battery pack and the
inverter, so the specific pack architecture and voltage are not relevant to the simulation.
29 November 2011                            Ricardo, Inc.                               Page 43

-------
Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
   300
   250
   200
   150
   100
    50
                                                                                   n
      92


      90


      88


      86


      84


      82


      80


      78
       500    1000   1500   2000   2500   3000   3500   4000  4500   5000   5500   6000
                                     Speed (RPM)

    Figure 6.6: 2007 Camry motor-inverter efficiency contour map. (Burress, et a/., 2008)
                                                                               fidelay time)
      Red: Braking Mode
      Black: Accel Mode
                                                     flthrottle.veh spd)
           Figure 6.7: High level state flow diagram for the hybrid control strategy.

In addition, a Ricardo proprietary methodology was used to identify the optimum boundaries of
fuel consumption  for a given hybrid powertrain configuration over the drive  cycles of interest:
FTP,  HWFET, and US06.  The methodology used the drive cycle profile to identify the features
29 November 2011
                                          Ricardo, Inc.
Page 44

-------
Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
and thresholds of a control strategy that could provide fuel consumption over the drive cycle that
approaches the boundary value. The result of this assessment enabled the development of a
robust energy management system to control power flow. The simulation results using the
hybrid controller were  then  compared  against the offline  strategy to  ensure that the hybrid
controller in the  models is obtaining the most  out of the hybrid powertrain. Furthermore, the
control strategy was designed to allow for a wide range of input parameters while striving for the
most  efficient operation modes. Figure 6.7 illustrates the state flow diagram  for the hybrid
control  strategy used  as the baseline  for the hybrid  control  algorithm  implemented  in
MSC.EasyS™, as well  as the state variables, driver inputs and system parameters that were
used to define the state transitions. There are six main operation state modes,
•  Idle engine off mode: This mode will shut the engine off and set the throttle command to
   zero.
•  Electric vehicle mode: This mode will leave the  engine off and use the throttle command
   from the driver to determine the torque command for the electrical machine.
•  Engine-Vehicle synch mode: This mode will start the engine.
•  Normal driving model: This mode determines the ratio of electrical  machine and  engine
   power that will be transmitted to the wheel to achieve the desired demand.
•  Idle mode: This mode starts the countdown for idle engine off mode.
•  Regen mode: This mode  determines if regenerative braking is possible and how much of the
   requested brake torque will be assigned to foundation brakes and to the electrical machine.

The following inputs and variables or states should be defined and available within the controller
in order to full define the state transitions,
•  Driver inputs: throttle and brake pedals
•  Battery State of Charge (SOC)
•  Vehicle speed
•  Engine: power and speed
•  Motor: max power, max torque, speed, and torque/power.

Because the design space encompasses a large range of engine displacement and motor sizes,
the input parameters were normalized  to take into account these changes and automatically
adjust the  controller thresholds to meet the new demands. Figure 6.8 depicts the  engine
demand curve that targets high efficiency operation.

A key feature of the hybrid controller is that it used a hybrid load following and load averaging
strategy to help keep the engine on or near its line of best efficiency on the engine operating
map with  some  accommodation for the efficiency  of the overall powertrain. If the engine is
required to be on during low-load conditions, the engine can be made to work harder and more
efficiently and store the excess energy in the battery. While there have been concerns about the
effectiveness of a load  averaging strategy given the  roundtrip efficiency of energy storage and
retrieval, with the improvements expected in the 2020-2025 timeframe, the engine is likely to be
a critical factor in the balance of efficiency  improvements. In the simulation environment, two
identical vehicles were  analyzed, one with load averaging active and the other, not. The  case
with  load  averaging showed a slight  improvement  in fuel consumption  over the EPA drive
cycles. In  other cases,  the energy in the  battery  can be used to provide launch assist or EV
mode driving. All hybrid vehicle simulations were repeated over the drive cycles until the change
in  SOC from start  to  finish was within 1%  of  total  capacity. Therefore,  there  is  no net
accumulation or net depletion of energy in the battery, and the fuel consumption value reported
is  an accurate  measure  of  the effectiveness of technologies. Figure  6.9 shows the  energy
supervisory strategy of the hybrid powertrains.
29 November 2011                            Ricardo, Inc.                               Page 45

-------
Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
                                       Rr>st RsFC Ikc/lW.h] Curve 'm thp power rmp Ł IKT>. map)
                                                                           -*s-*#^          ?S^
                      100D     '53C     I'DOO    25ITI     30DO     1500    4003    4Ł00    Ł000    55CO
                    Figure 6.8: Best BSFC curve superimposed on fueling map.
                Energy Supervisory Strategy
        Driver Demand Pedal
                            Power
                                              Engine Power Demand
                          Distribution
                                           Battery Power Demand (Driving)
          Battery SOC
 Battery State
  of Charge
(SOC) Control
        Driver Brake Pedal
    Brake
 Distribution
                                           Battery Power Demand (Braking)
                                                           D
                                                                         Hybrid
                                                                      Architecture-
                                                                       Dependent
                                                                        Actuator
                                                                        Controls
                                                            ll
                1          -\
                 Electric Machine(s) jk
                           ^V
                  Engine •Tnrottie"  "^

               >          =
-------
      Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
7.     MODEL VALIDATION RESULTS

      Before executing the DoE simulation matrix, the vehicle models described in Chapter 6 were
      validated.  Baseline  exemplar vehicles were  modeled, and  the simulation  results  compared
      against publicly available data on vehicle performance, including  acceleration times and fuel
      economy.  Details of the model validation process and results are presented below. In addition,
      nominal runs were prepared for each major powertrain type to provide a reference point for the
      input parameters against which to compare the full design space explored in the DoE simulation
      matrix.

      7.1    Validation Cases and 2010 Baseline Vehicle Models

      Vehicle models were developed for a 2010 validation case for each of the seven LDV classes.
      Each  LDV class  was assigned a representative  exemplar vehicle for  the  purposes  of
      establishing a baseline  against  known vehicle data.  Ricardo leveraged the  peer-reviewed
      validation baseline models from its 2008 study with PQA (now SRA) for the five LDV classes
      from Standard Car  through  LOT to provide the validation  case models, and  to  build  new
      validation case models for the Small Car and LHDT classes. The validation case models are
      based on the  corresponding exemplar vehicles listed in Table 6.1, and therefore use automatic
      transmissions and engines with comparable characteristics,  including  number of gears, peak
      torque, and displacement.

      Vehicle  performance simulation results for the validation case models are shown below in
      Table 7.1,  comparing the raw fuel  economy results in the  EPA  Test Car List (EPA, 2010)
      against the calculated results. In addition  to the fuel economy tests, the launch performance
      was also assessed for each of the exemplar vehicles, with particular attention paid to the 0-60
      mph acceleration time, as this is readily available for validation. 0-60 mph acceleration times for
      the exemplar  models were within  a few tenths of a second of published times for each vehicle.
      Because production  P2 hybrids were not available to provide data in 2010, no direct comparison
      was  made.  Furthermore,  any production hybrid vehicle will  be  optimized for  a  specific
      combination of engine, electric machine,  and battery, whereas this  study used a generic but
      effective controller that allowed the entire design space to be robustly simulated.

                       Table 7.1: Validation vehicle fuel economy performance.
Vehicle Class Baseline Exemplars
Small car 2010 Toyota Yaris
Standard car 2007 Toyota Camry
Small MPV 2008 Saturn Vue
Full sized car 2007Chrysler 300
Large MPV 2007 Dodge Grand Caravan
LOT 2007 Ford F1 50
LHDT 2010 Chevy Silverado
3500HD (diesel)
EPA Test List (mpg)
FTP75 HWFET
37 48
27 42
24 37
21 34
20 32
16 23
— —
Simulation Results (mpg)
FTP75 HWFET
37 48
27 42
25 36
22 33
20 29
15 23
13 21
Difference (%)
FTP75 HWFET
-0.8% 0.2%
0.9% -1.0%
3.9% -2.6%
3.7% -4.6%
1.6% -9.1%
-4.1% -0.4%
— —
      Following the model validation phase, 2010 baseline vehicles were established. Rather than
      using the validation vehicles and corresponding fuel economy results, a new set of baseline
      values  were determined to facilitate a uniform comparison  between the advanced (future)
      concepts and today's current technologies. These new reference 2010 baseline vehicles add an
      efficient alternator and stop-start operation to a common 6-speed automatic transmission, and
      retain the engine maps from the validation case models. Appendix 3 presents the 2010 baseline
      model fuel economy and CO2 output equivalents for all classes of vehicles considered in this
      29 November 2011
                                             Ricardo, Inc.
                                                                                        47

-------
      Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
      study. Note  that the CO2  equivalents used  in these tables  were provided by the EPA as
      9,087 g/gal of fuel for gasoline and 10,097 g/gal for diesel.

      7.2    Nominal Runs

      Once the models were developed and validated, a series of nominal  runs  were prepared to
      assess the accuracy and robustness of the model. For the conventional vehicles, the nominal
      condition was calculated using the same vehicle  parameter values, such  as  for mass and
      aerodynamic drag, as the 2010 baseline vehicles. The advanced engine size was then adjusted
      to match the baseline 0-60 mph acceleration time, thus defining the nominal displacement for
      each advanced engine. In addition, the nominal condition includes use of a baseline six-speed
      automatic transmission for all LDV classes and implementation of stop-start technology. In this
      way, the nominal condition is placed on a corner of the design space for each LDV class and
      therefore, the nominal conditions serve as the reference point for the design space explored by
      the DoE simulations.

      For  the  Powersplit  and P2 hybrids, the nominal engine size was  reduced  by  20% from  the
      conventional nominal engine  size to allow for motor assist to match the aforementioned 0-60
      mph performance metric. The 20%  engine displacement reduction  for the Powersplit and P2
      hybrids was  determined using Ricardo's engineering judgment and  an assessment of existing
      hybridization strategy. The  nominal  electric machine size was then set so that  the 0-60 mph
      acceleration time was matched for the hybrid nominal cases.

      It is  not possible to provide validation examples of the nominal vehicle models as  they represent
      predicted 2020 technology.  Also,  separate  models showing  the incremental benefits of
      individual technologies were not studied as steps to the overall advanced packages.  However,
      the program team reviewed detailed output data for over one hundred distinct variables at a 10
      Hz sampling rate to confirm that all of the nominal runs reflected reasonable  real-world vehicle
      behavior. After the nominal runs passed these quality checks, Ricardo proceeded to the DoE
      simulation phase of the project.

      The  full table of nominal runs results for the  conventional  stop-start,  P2  hybrid,  and Input
      Powersplit hybrid vehicle combinations is in Appendix 5, and presents the key  output factors
      defined in Appendix 4. These summary results and the rest of the simulation output data were
      used to assess the quality of the simulation results before executing the DoE simulation matrix,
      for example,  by assessing power flows to and from the battery over the drive cycle.


8.     COMPLEX SYSTEMS MODEL VALIDATION

      Complex systems  modeling (CSM)  is an objective, scientific approach for evaluating several
      potential options or configurations for benefits relative to each other and to a baseline.  For this
      program, the CSM methodology was used to define the design  space  for LDVs in the 2020-
      2025 timeframe, and then to effectively evaluate LDV performance over this large design space.

      8.1    Evaluation of Design Space

      The purpose of the DoE simulation matrix is to efficiently explore the potential design space for
      LDVs in the  2020-2025 timeframe.  The simulation matrix was designed  to generate selected
      performance results, such as fuel consumption or acceleration times, over selected drive cycles.
      29 November 2011                           Ricardo, Inc.                              Page 48

-------
Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
The DoE approach allows an efficient exploration of the design space while limiting the number
of runs needed to survey the design space.

For  each  discrete  combination  of  vehicle  class,  powertrain  architecture,  engine,  and
transmission in the design space, the continuous  input variables,  including applied road load
reductions, were varied over the ranges shown in Tables 8.1  and 8.2 for the conventional and
hybrid powertrains, respectively. These continuous input variable ranges are with respect to the
nominal value for each LDV class.  In the analysis, continuous input variables are evaluated
using a combination  of the design corner points in a two-level  full factorial  design and design
points within the space based  on a  Latin  hypercube sampling methodology. Note that vehicle
mass is considered  independently  of the combination of discrete technologies; for example,
switching from an automatic transmission to a DCT does not automatically adjust  the vehicle
mass in the simulation.

To size the electric machines, hybrid vehicle simulations were performed with  the conventional
vehicle counterparts to assess the overall braking energy over the drive cycles. This knowledge
was then applied to the hybrid  models by  sweeping the electric machine sizes over the ranges
shown in Table 8.2 until the overall regenerative energy equaled or exceeded 90% of the total
braking energy, excluding the innate  vehicle road load losses.

    Table 8.1: Continuous input parameter sweep ranges with conventional powertrain.
Parameter
Engine Displacement
Final Drive Ratio
Rolling Resistance
Aerodynamic Drag
Mass
DoE Range (%)
50 125
75 125
70 100
70 100
60 120
   Table 8.2: Continuous input variable ranges for P2 and Powersplit hybrid powertrains.
Parameter
Engine Displacement
Final Drive Ratio
Rolling Resistance
Aerodynamic Drag
Mass
Electric Machine Size
DoE Ra
P2 Hybrid
50 150
75 125
70 100
70 100
60 120
50 300
nge (%)
Powersplit
50 125
75 125
70 100
70 100
60 120
50 150
Latin hypercube sampling is a statistical method originally developed by McKay et al. (1979),
used to generate a set of parameter values over a multidimensional parameter space. The
method randomly  samples  the  multidimensional parameter space in a way that  provides
comprehensive and relatively sparse coverage for best efficiency. It also allows one to efficiently
continue to fill the  multidimensional  parameter space by further random  sampling. It provides
more  flexibility  than traditional multi-level factorial designs  for assessing a large parametric
space with an efficient number of experiments.

The vehicle simulations were run in batches and the results were collected and processed.
Vehicle fuel economy  and performance metrics were recorded as well as diagnostic variables
29 November 2011
                                        Ricardo, Inc.
Page 49

-------
      Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
      such as the total number of gear shifts and the distance traveled during the drive cycle. The
      data were reviewed using a data mining tool  and outliers were analyzed, and, as necessary,
      debugged and re-run. This approach allowed issues to be detected and diagnosed very quickly
      within a large amount of data.  Once the data  were reviewed and approved, response surface
      models were generated.

      8.2     Response Surface Modeling

      Response surface models (RSM) were generated in the form of neural networks. The goal was
      to achieve low residuals while not over-fitting the data. Initially, 66% of the data were used for
      fitting the model while the  remainder was used to validate  the response surface model's
      prediction performance. Once a good fit was found, all the data were used to populate the RSM.
      Each neural network fit contains  all of the continuous and discrete variables used in  the study
      for a given transmission. One neural network fit per transmission was generated to improve the
      quality of the fits.
9.     RESULTS
      The key  project results consist of the raw data sets obtained from over 350,000 individual
      vehicle simulation cases, the Data Visualization Tool developed to query the response surfaces
      based upon the raw data sets, and this report describing these results. These key results are
      discussed below.  A separate User Guide for the Data Visualization Tool will  be released with
      the tool.

      9.1     Basic Results of Simulation

      Each  of  the  simulation cases  generated data at 10  Hz2 which allowed evaluation of the
      performance of a specific vehicle configuration in the design space  over each of the drive
      cycles. These results include parameters such as vehicle speed, calculated engine power, and
      instantaneous fueling rate. The  detailed data from each simulation run were then distilled into
      the main  output factors of interest, such as acceleration time and fuel economy, that were then
      used in the parametric fit of the RSM.

      For this study, the main output factors include raw fuel economy and GHG emissions over each
      of the drive cycles studied and performance metrics, such as 0-60 mph acceleration times. The
      complete list of output factors is listed in Appendix 4.

      9.2    Design Space Query

      The Design Space Query within  the Data Visualization Tool allows the user to assess a specific
      vehicle configuration in the design space by selecting a platform, engine, and transmission and
      then   setting  the  continuous variables  within  the  design  space  range.   The generated
      performance results are then reported in  a  table that is exportable to Excel. The user can
      assess multiple vehicle configurations  and compare them in Excel. The tool table also allows
      the user to apply  spreadsheet formulas for quick, on-the-side computation. An example of the
      Design Space Query is shown in Figure 9.1.
      2 To maintain manageable file sizes at an adequate level of fidelity, EPA requested that output files be
      generated at a 10 Hz sampling rate—far slower than the EasyS process rate—for its own data quality
      checks.
      29 November 2011                            Ricardo, Inc.                               Page 50

-------
Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
9.3    Exploration of the Design Space

A more comprehensive survey of the design space can be conducted using the Design Space
Analysis in the Data Visualization Tool, which allows the  user to assess the performance of
multiple vehicle configurations from a significant portion of the design  space simultaneously.
Each design is generated by selecting a vehicle platform, engine, and transmission, and then by
selecting ranges for the continuous input variables.  Figure 9.2 shows  the screen  where the
design space analysis is set up. For each of the continuous  variables, values are generated
using a Monte Carlo analysis from a uniform distribution over the range selected.

Once generated, the results at the design points are stored and may be  plotted to visualize the
effects of varying vehicle parameters over the design space. By carefully building a design and
varying the parameters,  the user can  gain an understanding of the effect  of each technology
and  the interactions between technologies.  Figures 9.3-9.5 show examples  of plots that
compare two design space analyses. In these cases, the red points are for a Full Size Car with
advanced diesel engine and dry-clutch DCT, whereas the blue points are  for a Full Size Car
with  stoichiometric Dl turbo engine and automatic transmission.  The black point is the  2010
baseline value.  For these examples, the engine displacement was varied from  50% to 125% of
nominal, or 0.71 to 1.8 t displacement for the stoichiometric Dl turbo engine and 1.4 to 3.6 t for
the diesel, and the vehicle  mass, from 70% to 100% of nominal, or 2800 to 4000lb.

The  example in Figure 9.6 compares  various configurations of the Standard Car,  all with the
EGR Dl Turbo  engine but with different  powertrains. The two Conventional Stop-Start cases
have the advanced  eight-speed  automatic and  dry-clutch  DCT,  shown  in  blue  and  gray,
respectively. The  Powersplit hybrid is shown in green, and the P2  Hybrid, in red.  Again, the
black point is the 2010 baseline value. By contrast, the example in Figure 9.7 compares fuel
economy performance across all seven LDV classes. Here, each LDV class has had its engine
displacement and vehicle mass varied from the minimum to the maximum of the design space.

9.4    Identification and Use of the Efficient Frontier

Part  of assessing the selected regions  of the design space is to find configurations that balance
efficiency and performance. The Data Visualization Tool identifies  an Efficient Frontier, which is
the bound of the  sampled design space that has the most desirable performance. The user
must first define a dataset using the Design Space Query, described above in Section 9.2, and
then  select the  Efficient  Frontier tab in the Data Visualization Tool. An example of the Efficient
Frontier screen is shown in Figure 9.8. The Efficient Frontier is marked out in red, and the user
can click on the data points along the frontier to discover the vehicle configurations that lie on
the frontier.
29 November 2011                            Ricardo, Inc.                               Page 51

-------
Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
  VEHICLES AND TCCIINOlOGItS M I UIIUN

                                                                                1Q
                                                              veMde Fud cconomv and Performance Data
    JS
    JMK
    I"
        DMnte*!
BJ
                  ±^

                               -:
11 IF


it
<
_ffl
~3
JJ
"a
u>
_H
i»
A I I
m"-;, ^










••
J5«











conbmdp...











.' .'- rrc*.
J4Ht4J'j











B-»1/U











"""*««











,,,










>
                                                                              L. c . te      tar M
                Figure 9.1: Design Space Query screen in  Data Visualization Tool.

  S^rUTAOFRY  ^ JWAlVitSU-l Lf  v  PIOT FFF1CFHTFR»mHl


  MONTE CARLO POINTS GENERATION SET UP:
  rhmV Vrdlrlr (1o«R  Ti jjt .*j J F (»}
        .;   3.0057 ' 0.001 L    0EHSue;   M.OOO
                             •i   ^TS-
         *  «   ]
                                                                                              fiTkvrr^
                                                                                      f sta. UDO    I Acred Out; J!>J
                                                                                             3S810J7
                                                                     Too^Kcd At 1.1-.- -•!--.   -..•>;
              Figure 9.2: Design Space Analysis screen in Data Visualization Tool.
29 November 2011
                                                 Ricardo, Inc.
                                                                           Page 52

-------
Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
             65
             60
             00

             50
           Ł45
           P 40
           I
           Ł25
           5
           I 20
           O
             15
             10
              0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.65 0.70  0.75 0.80 0.85  0.90 0.95 1.00  1.05 1.10 1.15  1.20 1.25  1.3C
                                       Displacement Scaling (—)
   Figure 9.3: Full Size Car Design Space Analysis example.  Black point is 2010 baseline;
  red points are for advanced diesel and dry-clutch DCT; blue points, Stoichiometric Dl
                      Turbo with advanced automatic transmission.
            450
            425
            400
            375
            350
            325
            300
          'I'275
          S250
          O 225
          Ł"200
          § 175
            150
            125
            100
             75
             50
             25
             0
                                                                 15
                                                                            17
                                                                                18
               5     6     7     8    9    10    11    12    13    14
                                    0-60 mph Acceleration Time (s)
   Figure 9.4:  Full Size Car Design Space Analysis example. Black point is 2010 baseline;
  red points are for advanced diesel and dry-clutch DCT; blue points, Stoichiometric Dl
                      Turbo with advanced automatic transmission.
29 November 2011
                                          Ricardo, Inc.
Page 53

-------
Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
           40
           35
           30
           25
           20
           15
           10
            5
            0
• Baseline
»StoichDIT+8AT
oDiesel+DCT
             0.5
 1.0
1.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
                                      2.0      2.5
                                  Engine Displacement (L)
 Figure 9.5: Full Size Car Design Space Analysis example. Black point is 2010 baseline;
red points are for advanced diesel and dry-clutch DCT; blue points, Stoichiometric Dl
                   Turbo with advanced automatic transmission.
      100
       95
       90
       85
       80
       75
    1  70
    §  651
    UJ  60
    LJ_
    g  55
       50
       45
       40
       35
       30
       25
       20
       15
       10
        5
        0
              0.60   0.65   0.70   0.75   0.80    0.85   0.90   0.95   1.00   1.05    1.10   1.15
                                     Mass Scaling Factor (—)

    Figure 9.6: Standard Car design space analysis example comparing powertrains with
  EGR Dl Turbo engine. Blue points are with advanced automatic; gray, dry-clutch DCT;
           green, Powersplit; and red, P2  Hybrid. Black point is 2010 baseline.
29 November 2011
                                        Ricardo, Inc.
                                                           Page 54

-------
Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
                              2000      4000      6000      8000

                                           Vehicle Mass (Ib)
                                                                   10000
                                                                             12000
       Figure 9.7: Full design space example showing all seven vehicle classes using
    Stoichiometric Dl Turbo engine and advanced automatic transmission with varying
                           vehicle mass and engine displacement.
 •
                    PlOT UI HOJinRUNULK
  Prttanrartr Mr-tre 0 ii»uri
          | IBjJl
                 |~~| S«w FunSn &*t
          B™ F'l.m.l Fi..,l~
                                             Effleltnt Fronilar Ei
-------
      Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
10.    RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FURTHER WORK

      Ricardo has the following recommendations for further work on this program:
         •  Thoroughly analyze and simulate turbo lag effects in the advanced, boosted engines
            through engine performance simulation tied in with the vehicle models.
         •  Run the models over additional drive cycles, such as  the  NEDC, JC08, or the cold
            ambient FTP,  to understand how the  technology packages  may apply to other global
            regions.
         •  Expand the design space to mix 2010 baseline engines and transmissions with the
            advanced technologies  to better understand the  relative  contributions  of engine or
            transmission technology to the performance of the advanced vehicles.
         •  Include additional engines with different technology packages,  such as a version of the
            Stoichiometric Dl Turbo engine that has a single, fixed cam profile  instead of using the
            CPS valvetrain.
         •  Develop correlation models for the  P2  and Input Powersplit hybrid powertrains to
            establish a baseline within the simulated design space.
         •  Implement a  Two-Mode  Powersplit  hybrid  powertrain to  assess  the benefits  of
            hybridization in the larger LDV classes.
         •  Study  the simulation  results  to  understand main and  interaction effects  between
            technologies.
11.    CONCLUSIONS

      The following conclusions are supported by this program's results:

         •  An independent, objective, and robust analytical study of the effectiveness of selected
            LDV technologies  expected to be prevalent  in the 2020-2025 timeframe, and  their
            effects on vehicle performance has been completed.

         •  A  comprehensive review process was  completed to  identify technologies likely to be
            available in the 2020-2025 timeframe and to estimate their future  performance given
            current trends and expected developments.

         •  The vehicle  performance models  were  based upon the  underlying  physics  of the
            technologies and have been  validated  with good result to available test data. Quality
            assurance checks have been made  throughout the study to ensure accuracy of the
            trends  in the results.

         •  The Data Visualization Tool allows EPA and other stakeholders to  efficiently examine
            the design space developed through the program's complex systems  modeling approach
            and to assess trade-offs between various vehicle configurations and their performance.
            The tool provides the necessary functionality to assess specific vehicle designs or more
            comprehensively explore the design space.
      29 November 2011                           Ricardo, Inc.                               Page 56

-------
      Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
12.    ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

      Ricardo wishes to acknowledge the contributions of the team that supported the technical work
      through the course of the program, which included the following:
         •  David Boggs, Technical Specialist
         •  Paul Bosker, Program Manager
         •  Nick Bouhamdan, Program Manager
         •  Felipe Brandao, Technology Leader
         •  Anrico Casadei, Senior Project Engineer
         •  Mark Christie, Vice President of Engineering Operations
         •  Jennifer Durfy, Project Engineer and Subject Matter Expert
         •  Josef Fulem, Senior Fuel Cell Product Engineer
         •  Keith Gilbert, Project Engineer and Subject Matter Expert
         •  Daniel Gross, Project Engineer
         •  Tom Gutwald, Innovations Department Manager
         •  Stuart Horswill, Chief Engineer and Subject Matter Expert
         •  Henry Huang, Project Engineer
         •  Neville Jackson, Chief Technology and Innovations Officer
         •  Fred Jacquelin, Technical Specialist
         •  Carl Jenkins, Product Group Director
         •  Angela Johnson, Principal Engineer
         •  Neil Johnson, Project Engineer and Subject Matter Expert
         •  John Kasab, Chief Engineer
         •  Chris Mays, Project Director and Subject Matter Expert
         •  Shaun Mepham,  Product Group Director
         •  Richard Osborne, Chief Engineer and Subject Matter Expert
         •  Pascal Reverault, Principal Engineer and Subject Matter Expert
         •  Cedric Rouaud, Chief Engineer and Subject Matter Expert
         •  Daniel Shepard, Associate Engineer
         •  John Stokes, Gasoline Technical Specialist and Subject Matter Expert
         •  Qiong Sun, Program Manager
         •  Wayne Thelen, Chief Engineer and Subject Matter Expert
         •  Marc Wiseman, Principal (Ricardo Strategic Consulting)
      29 November 2011                            Ricardo, Inc.                              Page 57

-------
      Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
13.    REFERENCES

      Anderson, S.R.,  D.M.  Lamberson, T.J. Blohm, and W. Turner, 2005, "Hybrid route vehicle fuel
      economy." SAE Technical Paper 2005-01-1164.

      Beazley, R.,  2010,  "EBDI® - Application of  a high BMEP downsized spark ignited engine".
      Presented at 2010 DEER Conference, Detroit, Mich.

      Biltgen, P., T. Ender,  and D. Mavris, 2006, "Development of a collaborative capability-based
      tradeoff environment for complex system architectures. 44th AIAA Aerospace Sciences Meeting
      and Exhibit. AIAA Technical Paper 2006-728

      Burress, T.A., C.L. Coomer, S.L.  Campbell, L.E. Seiber, R.H. Staunton, and J.P. Cunningham,
      2008, "Evaluation of the 2007 Toyota Camry  Hybrid Synergy Drive System." ORNL technical
      report TM-2007/190.

      Coltman, D., J.W.G. Turner, R. Curtis,  D. Blake,  B. Holland,  R.J. Pearson, A. Arden, and H.
      Nuglisch, 2008,  "Project  Sabre:  A close-spaced  direct injection  3-cylinder  engine  with
      synergistic technologies to achieve low CO2 output." SAE Technical Paper 2008-01-0138.

      Gruff, L, M.  Kaiser,  S. Krause, R. Harris, U. Krueger, M. Williams, 2010, "EBDI®-Application of
      a fully flexible high BMEP downsized spark  ignited engine."  SAE Technical Paper 2010-01-
      0587.

      Environmental  Protection  Agency,  2010,  "Test  Car  List  Data  Files", available  from
      www.epa.gov/oms/tcldata.htm.

      Fiat Powertrain Technologies,  S.p.A., 2009, "MultiAir: The ultimate air management strategy".
      http://www.fptmultiair.com/flash_multiair_eng/home.htm

      Fulem,  J., J.J. Kasab,  S.  Russell, and C.J.  Mitts,  2006, "Advanced computational tools for
      systems engineering of fuel cell powertrains." Presented at Fuel Cell Seminar, Nov. 2006.

      Hellenbroich, G., and V. Rosenburg, 2009, "FEV's new parallel hybrid transmission with single
      dry clutch and electric torque support." Aachener Koloquium Fahrzeug- und Motorentechnik
      2009 18:1209-1222.

      Hohenner,   H.,  2010,  "Current  trends  on  powertrain  development  -  Downsizing  and
      downspeeding."  4th CTI Symposium on Automotive Transmissions and Drivetrains - North
      America, Jun 2010.

      Honda  Motor Company, 2011,  "The VTEC  breakthrough: Solving a century-old  dilemma".
      http://world.honda.com/automobile-technology/VTEC/

      Kinnunen, M.J., 2006,  Complexity Measures for System Architecture Models. Masters' thesis at
      Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

      Lumsden, G.,  D.  OudeNijeweme,  N.   Fraser,  and  H.   Blaxill,  2009,  "Development  of a
      turbocharged direct injection  downsizing demonstrator engine". SAE Technical Paper 2009-01-
      1503.
      29 November 2011                           Ricardo, Inc.                                  58

-------
Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
Luskin, P., 2010, A Systems Engineering Methodology for Fuel Efficiency and its Application to
a  Tactical  Wheeled Vehicle  Demonstrator.  Masters'  thesis at Massachusetts  Institute of
Technology.

McCarthy, I.P., T. Rakotobe-Joel, and G. Frizelle, 2000, "Complex systems theory:  Implications
and  promises  for  manufacturing  organizations."  Int. J.   Manufacturing  Technology  and
Management, 2(1-7): 559-579.

McKay,  M.D.;  Beckman, R.J.;  Conover,  W.J.,  1979,  "A comparison of three methods  for
selecting values  of input variables in the  analysis of output from  a  computer code."
Technometrics 21(2): 239-245.

"MSC Easy5 Advanced Controls Simulation", downloaded from
http://www.mscsoftware.com/Products/CAE-Tools/Easy5.aspx. Last accessed 12 Aug 2011

Muta, K., Y. Makoto, and J.  Tokieda, 2004,  "Development of new-generation hybrid system
THS II - Drastic improvement of power performance and fuel economy." SAE Technical Paper
2004-01-0064.

Ricardo and PQA, 2008, A Study of Potential Effectiveness of Carbon Dioxide Reducing Vehicle
Technologies. EPA Report 420-R-08-004a.

Schaeffler Group, 2010, "Important Facts About UniAir/MultiAir".
http://www.ina.de/content.ina.de/en/press/press-releases/press-details.jsp?id=3429505

Schmuck-Soldan, S., A. Konigstein, and F. Westin, 2011, "Two-Stage Boosting of Spark Ignition
Engines." Internationales Wiener Motorensymposium 2011 Europe S.r.l., Torino.

Shaw,  J.R., 2009,  "Testimony  to Joint  EPA/NHTSA  Hearing  on  Proposed Rulemaking to
Establish Light Duty Vehicle  Greenhouse Gas  Emissions Standards  and Corporate  Average
Fuel Economy Standards". Downloaded from www.autosteel.org last accessed 27 Oct 2009

Staunton, R.H., C.W. Ayers, L.D. Marlino, J.N.  Chiasson, T.A.,  Burress, 2006,  "Evaluation of
2004 Toyota Prius Hybrid Electric Drive System". ORNL technical  report TM-2006/423.

Turner, J.W.G., R.J. Pearson, R. Curtis,  and B.  Holland, 2009, "Sabre: A cost-effective engine
technology  combination for high efficiency, high performance and low CO2 emissions." Low
Carbon Vehicles 2009: Institution of Mechanical Engineers (IMechE) conference proceedings.

Weissier, P., 2011,  "Engine stop-start deployment in U.S. faces challenge from loss of A/C."
AEI, 5 July 2011, pp. 10-12.
29 November 2011                           Ricardo, Inc.                                  59

-------
Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
APPENDICES

Appendix 1, Abbreviations

AMI    Automated manual transmission         LOT
ARE    California Air Resources Board          LDV
BEV    Battery electric vehicle                 LEV
BMEP  Brake mean effective pressure          LHDT
BSFC   Brake specific fuel consumption         LNT
Cl      Compression ignition                  MPV
CPS    Cam profile switching                  NA
CSM    Complex systems modeling             NMEP
CVT    Continuously variable transmission       NOx
DCT    Dual clutch transmission                NVH
Dl      Direct injection                        OEM
DoE    Design of experiments                 ORNL
DVA    Digital valve actuation                  OTAQ
EGR    Exhaust gas recirculation
EPA    United States Environmental            PAS
        Protection Agency                     PFI
EPAS   Electric power assisted steering         PHEV
EV     Electric vehicle                        PMEP
FCEV   Fuel cell electric vehicle                PQA
FEAD   Front end accessory drive              RSM
FIE     Fuel injection equipment                SCR
FMEP  Friction mean effective pressure         SI
GHG    Greenhouse gas                      SME
ICCT    International Council on Clean           SOC
        Transportation                         SULEV
ICE     Internal combustion engine             V2I
IMEP    Indicated mean effective pressure       V2V
KERS   Kinetic energy recovery system          VA
Light-duty truck
Light-duty vehicle
Low emissions vehicle
Light heavy-duty truck
Lean NOx trap
Multi-purpose vehicle
Naturally aspirated
Net mean effective pressure
Nitrogen oxides
Noise, vibration, and harshness
Original equipment manufacturer
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Office of Transportation and Air
Quality
Power assisted steering
Port fuel injection
Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle
Pumping mean effective pressure
Perrin Quarles Associates
Response surface model
Selective catalytic reduction
Spark ignited
Subject matter expert
State of charge
Super ultra low emissions vehicle
Vehicle to infrastructure
Vehicle to vehicle
Valve actuation
29 November 2011
                                       Ricardo, Inc.
                       Page 60

-------
Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
Appendix 2, Assessment of Technology Options

At the start of the program,  Ricardo and  EPA, with input from the Advisory Committee,
developed a comprehensive list of technology options for further consideration by Ricardo's
Subject Matter Experts. The technologies are listed below. The technologies considered further
for assessment are in the related document "Assessment of Technology Options" (Ricardo
reference RD.11/ 342305.1),  included as Attachment A.

Engine technologies considered included the following:
   •   Engine downsizing
   •   Direct injection
   •   Turbocharging
   •   Valvetrain technologies  and subsystems, including
          o  CPS valvetrains
          o  DVA or variable  valve timing (VVT) valvetrains
   •   Stratified charge Dl
   •   Homogeneous charge compression ignition (HCCI) or controlled auto-ignition (CAI)
       combustion
   •   Exhaust energy recovery, including
          o  Mechanical turbo-compounding
          o  Electrical turbo-compounding
          o  Thermoelectric devices
   •   Second-generation biofuels
   •   Friction reduction technologies
   •   Closed-loop combustion control
   •   Adjustments to compression ratio
   •   Advanced boosting technologies
   •   Enhanced EGR and charge air cooling
   •   Pre-turbine catalysis
   •   Calibration optimization  for low GHG emissions
   •   Narrow speed range operation
   •   Optimization of engines  for use with hybrid powertrains

Engine configurations  considered included the following:
   •   Stoichiometric  Dl turbocharged
   •   Lean Dl turbocharged
   •   High-load EGR engines
   •   Multi-mode (2 stroke-4  stroke)
   •   Engines optimized for hybrid powertrains, including
          o  Stop-start powertrains
          o  Full hybrid powertrains

Hybrid powertrain technologies, including
   •   Micro hybrid or stop-start system
   •   Integrated belt  starter-generator (BSG)
   •   Integrated crank starter-generator (ISG) or Integrated motor assist (IMA)
   •   P2 parallel hybrid powertrain
   •   Input Powersplit hybrid powertrain
   •   Two-mode Powersplit hybrid powertrain
29 November 2011                            Ricardo, Inc.                               Page 61

-------
Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
   •   Series hybrid
   •   Parallel hydraulic hybrids

Transmission technologies, including
   •   Advanced automatic transmissions
   •   AMTs
   •   CVTs
   •   DCTs
   •   Launch devices
          o  Wet clutch
          o  Damp clutch
          o  Dry clutch
          o  Multi-damper torque converter
          o  Magnetic clutch
   •   Shifting clutch technology
   •   Smart kinematic design
   •   Dry sump
   •   Efficient components
   •   Super finishing
   •   Lubricant improvements

Vehicle technologies, including
   •   Mass reduction through use of
          o  Advanced high strength steels
          o  Aluminum alloys
          o  Magnesium alloys
          o  Plastics and fiber-re info reed composites
   •   Mass reduction through component optimization
   •   Passive and active aerodynamics improvements
   •   Active aerodynamics systems
   •   Thermoelectric generators
   •   HVAC system load reduction
   •   Tire rolling resistance
   •   Intelligent cooling systems
   •   Electric PAS
29 November 2011                            Ricardo, Inc.                               Page 62

-------
Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
Appendix 3, Baseline Vehicle Parameters and Runs Results
11
adioad P
1 50 mph |
a. a
re

at '"""
.E "'E
•3 ™
01 i.
= f
"o w
>- 3
K •-
>
o IX
_o .
0) S,
± It
HI g
Ł O
* 8=
"oi
0) o
K °
cC-
—
^c
•o
o
3


«
re
g
m


t/i
Q.

%
UJ
0)
c
1
re
CD

w
tfl

O
_aj

"S
CO CO
CD T-



O T-
CD en
CD CD

CN O
CO CN
CN CO
o o

Sfe

CD CD



^r CN
CD CO

o o
CD CD
CD O
CO CD
h^ CD
CD CD


T- ^r
CD ^r
T- CD


LO LO
CM CN
CD CD
CN CO






Toyota Yaris
Toyota Cami

0 0
CN CN

ro
o
ro ~o
u ro

CO CO
T- CO
LO ^




CD CD
CD CD

O CN

CD CD

SLO
0
•^T CN
CD CD



CD CO
CD T-
O T-
O O
CD CD
LO CN
CN CD
0) h^
CD CD


^ ^

CO CO


o o






Saturn Vue
Chrysler 300

0 0
CN CN

ro
^ "S
.N

"ro _^
CO LL
CO CD
LO CN



^ o
CD O
CD T-

O CN
88
CD CD

O CO
"3- LO
CD CD



CN T-
h- CO
O O
O O
CD CD
CN T-
LO ^
CD CO
CD T-


T- CN
^ CN

CN CN

O O
Ł8
-3- CD

C
ro
ro
ro
0
-7-i
Dodge Gram
Ford F1 50

8 8
CM CM


Q_
2
0)
D) |—
*0
-



LO
o
^


CO
CD

CN
CD

^



CO
CO
o
o
CD
^.
CO
^


CN


"3"

8
O
CD




O
"D
ro
Chevy Silver
HD (diesel)
o o
T- O
CN CO




I—
Q
I



























w
a)
o
d)

 a.
> E
"I
x -;„
< 1
&CT
UJ
dl
O ™
Bf |

• — "
< |
LU

O
si
_C o
0 J
U
o
"~


3"
<>
0


§_
>
te
c
o
1


c
Ł

I?
o —

it
o! o
a
c


>
75 a

* 1
Ł ^
Q.
O
a:

icie Clas
.c
o
>



LO
OJ
s



CD
CD
CO

CO





CO
CO
CM
CM
co'
s

OJ
OJ
^ "^
^1
0



^



LO
CD

°
•a

a;
s-
CD

LO
-=1-
"~

.14 DOHC 4V
LO
^



^




O
E
en



CD
CD
S



ay
CO
CM
to"
00





ay
8
CO
o"
s

OJ
OJ
cr ~c
"5 -2
^|
0



^



LO
CD
co'
°
•a

a>
s-
CD

0)
T-
CM

.14 DOHC 4V
^j
CM



E.
S




ndard Car
Ł
to



CO
S
P3



CD
ay
CM
00
00




CO
CO
CO
co'
fj

OJ
OJ ^
-S *•?
Ł to
0



^



0
0

o
1
•a
a>
cl
CD

LO
co
co

V6 SOHC 4V
—i
co


o
8




1 Size Car
LL




CO
S3



1^
LO
CM
S
00




CD
co"
CO
o"
P5

OJ
OJ ^
^ to
^f
E w
0



^



0
0

1
•a

cl
CD

0)
T-
CM

.14 DOHC 4V
^j
CM


Q)





CL
~co
to




CD
8



O
CD
ay
CM
o
00




o
CO

o"
si

CO
CO
EC t=
S1
E co
0



~z.



0
CM

O
1
•a
a;
cl
CD

0)
T-
co

.V6OHV2V
CO
co

c
?
Ł5
(3




Ł
S
Q)
D)
J3




ai
CO



,-
CM
^T
co"
CM
CN




ay
s

CN
CO

OJ
OJ
cr -c
& -2
J to
2i
0



^



0
LO

o
1
•a
a;
cl
CD

LO
0)
"*

V8 SOHC 3V
—1
LO


O
u_



^
h=
Q
D)
_l



O
p
CN



CO


IO





CO
^f
CO
CN
^

OJ
OJ
^ «
IS t§
0


0
CO
LO'



0
0
CD'
o
•a

a>
s-
CD

LO
T-
uo

.V8OHV2V
0
CD

Q
31
S



1
9
i
Ł
.s>



LO
O)
LO
?



^r
CO
LO
o"
en





CM
!^
CD
co"
IO

OJ
OJ
^ «
^\
S w
0


0
u



0
0
0)
o
•a

a;
s-
CD

LO
0)
CO

LV8OHV4V
CD
CD

Q
31
S



1
9
m
Ł
.s>
29 November 2011
                                            Ricardo, Inc.
Page 63

-------
Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
Appendix 4, Output Factors for Study

Raw fuel economy in miles per US gallon and GHG emissions in grams of CO2 per mile over
   •   FTP75
   •   HWFET
   •   US06
   •   HWFET and FTP combined

Acceleration performance metrics, including
   •   0-10 mph acceleration time
   •   0-30 mph acceleration time
   •   0-50 mph acceleration time
   •   0-60 mph acceleration time
   •   0-70 mph acceleration time
   •   30-50 mph acceleration time
   •   50-70 mph acceleration time
   •   Top  speed at 5% grade
   •   Top  speed at 10% grade
   •   Velocity at 1.3 sec
   •   Velocity at 3.0 sec
   •   Distance at 1.3 sec
   •   Distance at 3.0 sec
   •   Maximum grade at 70 mph at GCW
   •   Maximum grade at 60 mph at GCVW (LOT and LHDT only)
29 November 2011                          Ricardo, Inc.                              Page 64

-------
Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
Appendix 5, Nominal Runs Results

The table lists the baseline (2010) vehicles first, followed by results by vehicle class. The P2
Hybrids have an electric machine size listed, and all use the OCT. There were no Conventional
Stop-Start nominal runs that used the OCT. For the Input Powersplit hybrids, only the traction
motor size is listed, as the generator size is a function of the engine and traction motor sizes.

Abbreviations  used exclusively in  the following table of Nominal Runs  Results  include the
following:
Baseline      The 2010 baseline engine for the given vehicle class
Stoich  DIT     Stoichiometric Dl Turbo engine
Lean DIT      Lean-Stoichiometric Dl Turbo engine
EGR DIT      EGR Dl Turbo engine
Adv Diesel    Advanced (2020) diesel
Atk CS       Atkinson cycle engine with CPS
Atk DVA      Atkinson cycle engine with DVA
AT6           Six-speed automatic transmission (baseline or advanced, as appropriate)
ATS           Eight-speed automatic transmission (advanced only)
DCT          Dry or wet clutch DCT, per simulation matrix.
PS           Powersplit planetary gearset
29 November 2011                            Ricardo, Inc.                               Page 65

-------
Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
Velocity(mph)at
1.3 sec 3 sec

Distance (m) i
1.3 sec 3se
Max grade at
60 mph 70 mph
Top Speed (mph) on
5% Grade 10% Grade
A:cele ration times (s)
0-1 Omph 0-30mph 0-50mph 0-60mph 0-70mph 30-50mph 50-70mph
Raw fuel economy (mpg)
FTP75 HWFET US06
PeakTrq EM Pwr Trans-
L) (N.m) (kW) mission
Engine
Vehicle Class Type Displ (

CM CM CM
CO i- O
O) ^r CM

CD i- O) O) O
CM CO CM CM CO
if) O) CD CM r~-
CM CM CM ^r ^r

5SSS5oi52


CMCOCOCOCOCOCO^-
O if) CO
i- i- CO
1
CM r^ co
CM CD O)
CO CO O)
O) i- CM
CD i- ^r
if) if) CO
^r CM O)
CO CO CM
o **• if)
CO i- O)
CO CO 1
1 O U
1 CM i-
- t
i- CM CO CO CO
SCM CO O) O)
co co CD r^
O) r^ ^- co co
O) O) O O) O)
CO ^ CO ^
r ^r
^- CM O) co r^
CO CO CM CO CO
CO if) CO CO i-
CM i- O C1
-) CO
oicdr^oicdcdoio)
r^cDcbcDcocbcbcD
^rcocococMcococo

CO i- CD
i- O i- CO CO
CO CM CM CM CM i-
cq p cq o o CM c
CO CO CM CM CM i- i-
III
1
if) O) if)
? CM CO
cocococ,
•<•<•<<
1 1
•I CD
c <
O) O) if) if) if)
i- i- O) i- O)
CM CO ^ if) CO
i- CM CO CM CO if) C!
.1 .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 o
CO CO CO CO CO CO |
CD CD CD CD CD CD C
i_ CO CO > >
0 " " E E |- H
| | 1
co jS "5
CO U-

LHDT Base Diesel 6.6

RIRI 88
CO CO CO O)
CO CO CO O
i- i- i- CO
^r ^r ^r CD

CM CM CM CO
^r ^r ^r co
1 1

CO CO CO O
O) O) O) CD
CM CM CM O
CD CD CD ^T
O) O) O) O)
r- r- r- 0)
If) If) If) If)
^r ^r ^r CD
CO CO CO CO
CO CO CO CO
O O O CO
O O O O)
^- ^- ^- co
o o o r^
^ ^ ^ CO
if) if) if) CM

^- CD O) if)
CM CM CO i-
CO CO CO ^~
i- o ^r ^r
if) CD i r^ O)
If) If) If) If)
CM i- i- CO
CO > if) if) if)
If) If) If) If)
cococ,
•< •< <
1 1
c <
if) if) if) CM
Stoich DFT 0.74
Lean DIT 0.74
EGR DIT 0.74
Adv Diesel 1.23
O O O o
E E E E
CO CO CO CO

s s a a a
co co ^r ^r ^r
O) O) O) O) O)
if) if) i- i- i-
if) if) if) if) if)

CM CM
CO CO
1

CM CM CM
o o o
1 1
i- i- r- r- r-
CM CM O O O
CO CO CO CO CO
,_ ,_ ^ ^ ^
CD CD ID ID ID
co co ^r ^r ^r
CO CO CO CO CO
CO CO
o o
o o
CM CM CM
CD CD CD
O) O) O)
IT) IT) CM CM CM
r^ r^ co co co
CO CO CO CO CO

i- ^r o co o
CO CO CO CO CO
o in co r^ O)
m co if) if) 10
CO t~- CM **• CM
O i-^ CO CO O
1— 1— 1— 1— I—
O O O O O
Q Q Q Q Q
1 1
CO ^
5 5
CM CM CM
s s s
o o o
o o o o o
CO CO CO CO CO

CO CO CO CO CO
t~~ t~~ If) If) If)
i- i- CO CO CO
i-^ i-^ O O O


CO CO CO O
1 1
T~
D CO
^- O) CO CO CO
LO IT) IT) i- i-
CO CO O) O) O)
O) O) CO CO CO
CO CM O) O) O)
CM CM ^r ^r ^r
CO CO CO CO CO
CM CM CO CO CO
co co ^r ^r ^r
O) O) O O O
O) O) CM CM CM
r^ r^ cd cd cd
r^ r^ co co co
CO CO O) O) O)

O O CM CM 1^
CO O) IT) IT) CD
CO CO CO CO CO
if) o CM ^r i-
if) CD if) if) CD
CM co r^ co r^
CO CO CO CO CO
Q. Q. Q- Q- Q.
CO CO ^ ^ ^~
CO CO CM CM CM
CD CD O) O) O)
CD CD ID ID ID
CO — ' ^
o o o o o
CO CO CO CO CO

CM CM CM
o o o


o o o

CO CO CO
If) If) If)
1 1
CM CM CM
s§ s
o o o

CM CM CM
IT) if) if)
CO CO CO
1-1-1-
If) If) If)
CO CO CO
CM CM CM
CD CD CD
CO CO CO
o o o

IT) CO O
CM CM ^T
CO CO CO
If) If) t~~
If) If) If)
co CD ^r
^r CD CD
1 1
CM CM CM
CM CM CM
ss s
j= l_ l_
ill
Standard Ca
Standard Ca
Standard Ca

O O if) if) if)
1-^1-^000


r-: i-: cd cd cd


CM CM CM CM CM
i- i- CM CM CM
1 1
1
^ ^ ^j. ^j. ^
co co r^ r^ r^
co co •<- •<- i-
•^ -^ CO CO CO
O O O) O) O)

O) O) CO CO CO
CO CO CM CM CM
^- ^- co co co
1-1-1-1-1-
CD CD CD CD CD
CO CO CO CO CO
if) if) if) if) if)
CD CD CD CD CD
^r ^r CD CD CD
CO CO CO CO CO
CM CM CO CO CO

co if) O) r- •*
8 38 8 8
O) i— r^ cd O)
ID CD ID ID ID
CD O) O) O) i-
^ iri T-- IN \ if)
P CO CO CO CO
\— \— \— \—
o o o o o
Q Q Q Q Q
CM CM CM CM CM
O O CD CD CD
O O CO CO CO
^r ^r co co co
CM CM O O O
o o o o o
"E "E "E "E "E
"O "O "O "O "O
Ł3 Ł3 Ł3 ^2 ^2
CO CO CO CO CO

CM CM CM CM CM
CO CO i- i- i-
O) O) O) O) O)

iri iri

^r ^r ^r

CM CM
o o
1
CM CM CM
o o o
1
if) CO i- i- i-
If) If)
CO CO
CM CM
If) If)
o o
CO CO CO
o o o
O) O) O)
o o r- r- r-
CD CD
CM CM
CM CM
O) O) O)
CM CM CM
CO CO CO
O O i- i- i-
cd cd cd cd cd
CM CM CD CD CD
CD CD CD CD CD
CO CO CO CO CO
^t -^t If) If) If)

CO CD
^r o i-
CO CO CO CO CO
r^ co r^ if) co
T- CO T- CO ^~
If) If) If) If) If)
co ^r CD O) o
co CD if) r^ co
If) If) If) If) If)
CO CO CO CO CO
Q- Q- Q- Q- Q-
CO CO CO CO CO
O O CD CD CD
CM CM i- i- i-
O O CO CO CO
^r ^r co co co
CM CM O O O
o o o o o
"E "E "E "E "E
"O "O "O "O "O
Ł3 Ł3 Ł3 ^2 Ł3
CO CO CO CO CO

a a a
CD CD CD

CO CO CO

CO CO CO
^r ^r ^r

1
CM CM CM
CO CO CO
CO CO CO
O) O) O)
If) If) If)
If) If) If)
CM CM CM
CO CO CO
o o o
CM CM CM
CO CO CO
If) If) If)
CD CD CD
CO CO CO
CO CO CO
CM CM CM

r^ O) o
m 10 r^
CM CM CM
CD i- ^r
CO CO CO
CO O O
co ^r ^r
1
O) O) O)
CO CO CO
CM CM CM
CO CO CO
ill
E E E
E E E
CO CO CO

^- if) O) O) O)
O) O) CO CO CO

m m ^r ^r ^r

CM CM CM CM CM
O O i- i- i-

1 1
r^ r- r- r- r-
CD CD CM CM CM
CO CO CD CD CD
i-^ i-^ O O O
O) O) O) O) O)
ID ID CO CO CO
If) If) If) If) If)
CO CO CO CO CO
CD CD CO CO CO
CM C
•1 CM CM CM
co co ^r ^r ^r
O) O) O) O) O)
1- 1- p p p
CO CO CO CO CO

CD CO ID ID CO
O) O CO CO O)
CM CO CM CM CM
if) CO CM if) i-
O) i- i- CO O
CM ^T O O CM
If) If) If) If) If)
CO CO CO CO CO
Q Q Q Q Q
CM CM CM CM CM
r~- r~- o o o
80 o o o
CD O) O) O)
CM CM O O O
s s s s s
E E E E E
CO CO CO CO CO


55555

o o o
o o

1-1-1-1-1-
O) O) CO
1 1
CO CO
1
^- CD CO CO CO
i- i- CO CO CO
CO CO CM CM CM
O) O) O) O) O)
r^ r^ i- CM CM
CO CO ID ID ID
CO CO CO CO CO
CM CM CO CO CO
i- i- i- CM CM
i- i- CO CO CO
i- i- CO CO CO
O) O) O O O
^r ^r p p p
r^ r^ cd cd cd
O) O) O) O) O)

i- CD ^r
CO CO
If) CO t~~ t~~ CO
CM CM CM CM CM
CD CO CM 1^ O)
O) CM CM CM ^T
co ^- ^ ^ ^~
CO CO i- CO CO
^r O) O) o i-^
CO CO CO CO CO
Q. Q. Q- Q- Q.
o o o o o
r- r- o o o
CM CM •<- •<- i-
80 o o o
CD O) O) O)
CM CM O O O
CO CO CO CO CO
29 November 2011
                                                  Ricardo, Inc.
Page 66

-------
Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
Velocity(mph)at
1.3 sec 3 sec
Distance (m) in
1.3 sec 3 sec
Max grade at
60 mph 70 mph
Top Speed (mph) on
5% Grade 10% Grade
Asceleration times (s)
0-10mph 0-30mph 0-50mph 0-60mph 0-70mph 30-50mph 50-70mph
Rawfuel economy (mpg)
FTP75 HWFET US06
Engine Peak Trq EM Pwr Trans-
Vehicle Class Type Displ (L) (N.m) (kW) mission
CO CO CO CO
CM CM CM CM

S S S S
CM CM CM IT)
CO CO CO CO
1 1 1
CO CO CO O)
CD CD CD CO

i- i- i- CM
CM CM CM CM
CO CO CO CO

id id id id
O O O O)
CM CM CM i-

CM CD id id
CM CM CM CO
CM O O) id
i- CO CD CM
r^ cd cd cd
CO CO CO CO
Illl
1 1 1
en S) en o
CM CM CM id
1- 1- 1- id
^r ^r ^r co
ill!
o o o o
Q) Q) Q) Q)
CO CO CO CO
3333
LL LL LL LL
CO CO CM CM CM
**• **• id id id
i-^i-^OOO

CD CO O) O) O)
CO CO CO CD CO
CO CO id id id
CM CM CM CM CM
CM CM id id id
1 1

O) O) CO CD CO
CO CO CO CO CO
co ico 'id id id

ID ID O) O) O)
CO CO CO CO CO
id id r— r— r—
CM CM CM CM CM
O O O O O



IT) IT) CD CO CD
o o ^r ^r ^r
CO CO CO CO CO
CM CM CO CO CO

id O) CO **• CD
CO CO CO CO CO
CM **• id CO CO
CD h^ CD CD CO
oi i- co **• r~-
oi i-^ oi o i-^
*d- id **• id id
CO CO CO CO CO
I— I— I— I— I—
o o o o o
Q Q Q Q Q
CO CO CO CO CO
CM CM CM CM CM
SO CO CO CO
CO i- i- i-
Mils
o o o o o
CO CO CO CO CO
33333
LL LL LL LL LL
CO 1^ CM CO CM
CO CO CO CO CO
CM CM CM CM CM
O O O O O

l> l> CM CM CM
CM CM CM CM CM
CO CD CM CM CM
1 1
id id iD t~- t~~
Sco i r^ r^ r^
O CO CO CO
CM CM CM CM CM
oi oi CD CD CD
i- i- O O O

i- i- O i- O
CO CO ^ ^ ^
^- ^- co r^ co
CM CM CM CM CM
r~- t~~ o Q o


id id tD id tD
CM CM CM CM CM
CO CO CO CO CO
CO CO CO CO CO

CM CO CO O) i-
oi oi oi oi i-
CM CM CM CM CO
r^ co o co CD
CO O i CVi \ t- CO
CO ^ ^ ^ '*
co p cp p en
o co CD co r^

CO CO CO CO CO
Q- Q- Q- Q- Q-
o o o o o
CM CM CM CM CM
t~- t~- CO CO CO
i- i- CO CO CO
CO CO CM CM CM
SO CO CO CO
CO i- i- i-
HISS
o o o o o
CO CO CO CO CO
33333
LL LL LL LL LL
T T T ^
oi oi oi o
CM CM CM CO
CM CM CM CO
CO CO CO CO

CO CO CO O)
CO CO CO CO
id id id -*t
1 1 1
id id id O)
S^r ^r co
CO CO CO
CO CO CO T-
o o o o

i- i- i- CO
id id id id
CM CM CM CM
CO CO CO CO
id id id id
CD CO CD CO
CO CO CO CO
^r ^r ^r CM
CO CD CO CD
CM CM CM O
CO CO CO CO

co co ^ oi
CM CM CM CM
CM CO O) CO
CO CO ° ^
CO O CM CO
^ CD CD h^

Illl
1 1 1
CM CM CM ^T
CO CO CO CD
Large MPV Stoich DFT
Large MPV Lean DFT
Large MPV EGR DFT
Large MPV AoV Diesel
CD CD CO CO CO
CM CM CM CM CM
r~- r~- a o o
oi oi oi oi oi
r- i- i- i- i-
id id **• **• **•
^r ^r CM CM CM
CM CM CM CM CM
i- i- CM CM CM

1 1
CO CO CD CD CD
CO CO t~~ t~~ t~~
id id CO CO CO
CO CO CO CO CO
CD CD O) O) O)
CO CO i- i- i-
cd co oi oi oi
CD CD CD CD CD
CD CO CO CO CO
CO CO CO CO CO

id f~- CM CO CD
CM CM CM CM CM
**• id CM CD O
CO CO 1^ ^- CD

CO CO CO CO CO
o o o o o
Q Q Q Q Q
id id id id id
CM CM CM CM CM
CO CO CM CM CM
CM CM CM CM CM
i- i- O O O
Large MPV Atk CS
Large MPV Atk DVA
Large MPV Stoich DFT
Large MPV Lean DFT
Large MPV EGR DIT
CM CM r^ r^ r^
O O G) G) O)
r- r- in in in
1-1-1-1-1-
m m m m m

^ ,- 0, 0, 0,

1 1
O id id id id
CD CD CD CD CD
^r ^r CM co co
CO CO O O O
o o o o o

i- i- O O O
CO CO CM CM CM
CM CM CO CO CO
•*-•*- id id id
CO CO t~~ t~~ t~~
co co oi oi oi
CM CM CO CO CO
CO CO CO CO CO

id o co r^ co
CM CM CM CM CM
CD CO CO CD IT)
co ci ci o' •*-
co co co ^r ^r
r^ co co r^ p

CO CO CO CO CO
Q- Q- Q- Q- Q-
00000
CO CO CM CM CM
CM CM CM CM CM
i- i- O O O
Large MPV Atk CS
Large MPV Atk DVA
Large MPV Stoich DFT
Large MPV Lean DFT
Large MPV EGR DFT
id id id id
CO CO CO CO
CM CM CM IT)
CO CO CO CO

id id id ^
O O O i-

CO CO CO CO

1 1
- i- O

O) O) O) CM
CO CO CO CO
CO CD CO CD
id id id •*&
o o o o

CO CO CO CO
O O O O)
CO CO CO CM
CO CO CO CD
i- i- i- O
CO CO CO CO
CD CO CD IT)
O O O O)
CO CO CO CM
i- i- i- O

co ^r i- id
CO CD l< O
i- i- i- CM
CD o r^ ^~
CM CM CM CO
CO CD CO ^~
co ^r ^r co

CO 0
o c
^- ^
O) C

- p p
c 5 5
1 1
3 o ^r
r ^r CD
• ^ CO
~) 0) CM
LOT Stoich DFT
LOT Lean DFT
LOT EGR DFT
LOT AoV Diesel
id id
oi oi
CM CM
CM CM
CM CM CM

i- i- CM CM CM
O) O)
CO CO CO
i- i- O O O
CO CO

CO CO CO
1 1
CO CD CO

CO CO
SCO
CO
CD CD
id id
O) O)
CO CO
CM CM
CO CO
CO CO
id id
CO CO
o o o
CO CO CO
CD CO CD
O) O) O)
CO CO CO
CO CO CO
CM CM CM

CO CD CO
CO CO CO
CO CO CO
CM CM CM

oi oi
oi oi
CM CM
CM O)
CO CO
en co r^
co co oi
^r co CD
co co oi
CM CM CM
m p co
CM CO CO

CO CO CO CO CO
Q Q Q Q Q
id id id id id
CO CO CM CM CM
CO CO CO CO CO
co CD m m m
1- 1- 1- 1- 1-
Q Q Q Q Q
CD CD CD O
CO CO CO -^
CM CM CM CO
CO CO CO id

CM CM
o o
(M (M
o N
CD CD CD CM
co co co ^r
1
CD CD
1
CD r^

CO CO CO CO
^- ^ ^ oi
1- 1- 1- id
id id id T^
O) O) O) O
CD CD CD id
CO CO CO -*t
CO CO CO CO
^- ^ ^" CO
CO CO CO CO
oi oi oi co
p p p co
CM CM CM O)
CO CO CO CM
O O O O)

i- CM
co ^r
id CO
CD CD

1- id
CM CO

1
1 1
° °
1
s s
^r co
° s
LHDT Stoich DFT
LHDT Lean DFT
LHDT EGR DFT
LHDT Adv Diesel
29 November 2011
                                                  Ricardo, Inc.
Page 67

-------
Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
                                      DISCLAIMER

Ricardo Inc. has taken all reasonable care in compiling the analyses and recommendations
provided in this report.  However, the information contained in this report is based on information
and  assumptions provided by  the client or otherwise available to Ricardo which, in all the
circumstances, is deemed correct on the date of writing. Ricardo does not assume any liability,
provide any warranty or make any representation in respect of the accuracy of the information,
assumptions, and consequently the  analyses and recommendations contained in this report.
The report has been compiled solely for the client's use.

Any  results of analysis and calculation are intended to be part of subsequent decision-making
during design,  development and  problem-solving stages. Although analysis  may reduce the
effort required to validate a product through testing prior to production, such results shall not be
relied on as a validation in its own  right.

Analysis and  calculations  which  are intended to  predict physical behaviors are inherently
theoretical in nature as they are subject to a range of assumptions and approximations. Physical
behaviors and the measurements of those behaviors may vary for a  variety  of factors, some
being outside  the control  of Ricardo or the capability  of the predictive  methodology used by
Ricardo. Therefore, where any such predictions are subsequently compared with measured
data or physical behavior, it is to be expected that differences will be apparent.
29 November 2011                            Ricardo, Inc.                               Page 68

-------
Computer Simulation of LDV Technologies for GHG Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe
ATTACHMENT A

Attachment A is the document "Assessment of Technology Options", which includes Ricardo
SME assessments of the technologies considered in study "Computer Simulation of Light Duty
Vehicle Technologies for Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe".

These assessments were made of the technologies listed in Appendix 2.
29 November 2011                           Ricardo, Inc.                               Page 69

-------
                                                                      RICARDO
Assessment of Technology Options
Technologies considered in study "Computer Simulation of Light
Duty Vehicle Technologies for Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction
in the 2020-2025 Timeframe"
Date
Report
Project
Prepared for
Report by
Approved
30 September 2011
RD. 11/342305.1
CG001019
EPA Office of Transportation and Air Quality
Jennifer Durfy
Stuart Horswill
Chris Mays
Richard Osborne
John Stokes
Wayne Thelen

John J. Kasab
                        DELIVERING VALUE THROUGH INNOVATION & TECHNOLOGY
                                                       www.ricardo.com
                                                              RD.11/342305.1

-------
Outline
                                                                            RICARDO
               Introduction
               Spark ignited engine technologies
               Diesel engine technologies
               Hybrid vehicle technologies
               Transmission technologies
               Vehicle technologies
               Conclusions
 CG001019
              Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                 RD.11/342305.1

-------
Introduction
                                                                      RICARDO
    The following technology assessments were discussed by Ricardo, EPA, and
    the Advisory Committee at the start of the study, "Computer Simulation of Light
    Duty Vehicle Technologies for Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction in the
    2020-2025 Timeframe11

    Purpose of the assessments was to evaluate a large set of potential future
    technologies against the following criteria:
       Effectiveness of Technology
    -  Availability of Technology in 2020-2025
    -  Market Penetration of Technology in 2020-2025
       Long-Term Cost Viability
       Current Technology Maturity

    Assessments used the scale on the following slide and were based on the
    Ricardo Subject Matter Experts' experience with the systems considered

    Based on the evaluation and discussion, a subset of these technologies was
    included in the final study.
 CG001019
             Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                RD.11/342305.1

-------
Details of the rating system
                                                                                                     RICARDO
   Effectiveness of Technology (tank to wheels basis)
      1 = Worst = no C02 benefit
   •   2 = 1% C02 benefit
   •   5 = 5% C02 benefit
      8 = 10% C02 benefit
   •   10=  Best = >20% C02 benefit
   Availability of Technology in 2020-2025
      1 = University Research Laboratory
   •   3 = Technology available but not in vehicles
   •   4 = First Prototype in vehicles
      6 = In Fleet Trials
   •   7 = First entry into market
      10 =  Predominant technology in market place
   Market Penetration of Technology in 2020-2025
      1 = Worst = Demonstrated technology by 2025
   •   3 = Only in niche applications
      5 = Available,  but not widespread (>5% of market)
      7 = Mass-market availability (>10% of market)
      10 =  Best = Widespread (>25% of market)
Long-Term Cost Viability
•   1 = WORST = no pathway to long-term cost viability
    3 = Needs to "cross commercialization chasm"
•   5 = Pathway to volume production costs
•   7 = Return on investment clear
    10 = Profitable in 2020-2025
Current Technology Maturity
    1 = University Research Laboratory
•   3 = Technology available but not in vehicles
•   4 = First Prototype in vehicles
    6 = In Fleet Trials
•   7 = First entry into market
    10 = Predominant technology in market place
  CG001019
                   Prepared for SRA and EPA
    30 Seotember 2011
                          RD.11/342305.1

-------
Outline
                                                                           RICARDO
               Introduction
              Spark ignited engine technologies
               Diesel engine technologies
               Hybrid vehicle technologies
               Transmission technologies
               Vehicle technologies
               Conclusions
 CG001019
              Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                 RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment-SI Engines

Baseline Gasoline Engines
                                                                                                   RICARDO
   Technology and Status
                     Ratings of Technology
       Concept: The baseline gasoline engines for 2020-2025 light-duty vehicles in
       the US market are a range of naturally-aspirated port fuel-injected (PFI)
       engines, featuring dual-independent cam phaser (VVT) systems
       Base Functioning: The baseline vehicles will achieve a fleet average
       emissions level of SULEV2 (approximately EPA Tier 2 Bin 2)
       CO2  Benefit: Baseline (>35.5 mpg fleet average)
       Costs: Baseline - powertrain and aftertreatment cost of ~$1500-$2000 for
       standard car segment
   Technology Applicability

       The following vehicle classes are the subject of this study:
          Small car (Ford Focus)
          Standard car (Toyota Camry)
          Small MPV (Saturn Vue)
          Full-size car (Chrysler 300C)
          Large MPV (Dodge Grand Caravan)
          Truck (Ford F150)
          Heavy light-duty truck (Ford F250/F350)
(worst)
                    Effectiveness

                      Availability

                          Market
                      Penetration
                      Long-Term
                    Cost Viability
                         Current
                        Maturity
                  Visualization
                                            10
                                           (best)
  CG001019
                   Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                      RD.11/342305.1

-------
Outline
                                                                        RICARDO
              Introduction
              Spark ignited engine technologies
                Downsized engines
                Advanced valvetrains
                Combustion systems and fuels
                Engines for hybrid vehicles
              Diesel engine technologies
              Hybrid vehicle technologies
              Transmission technologies
              Vehicle technologies
              Conclusions
 CG001019
              Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment-SI Engines

Stoichiometric  Direct-Injection Turbocharged Engines
                                                                                                 RICARDO
   Technology and Status
                     Ratings of Technology
       Concept: Downsizing describes the replacement of a naturally-aspirated engine
       with a smaller-displacement turbocharged engine, having equivalent torque and
       power
       Base Functioning: Downsizing reduces pumping work by shifting operating
       points to higher load factors, and can also produce reductions in frictional losses
       CO2  Benefit: Drive-cycle benefit of 8-10%
       Costs: 15-25% increase in engine and aftertreatment cost
   Technology Applicability
        Downsized Dl turbo engines are applicable in all light-duty vehicle classes
          Likely to predominate in mid-size vehicles
        As a high compression ratio is maintained, downsized Dl turbo engines provide
        fuel economy benefits across the majority of the operating map
          As a result, both city and highway fuel economy will benefit
                               (worst)
                   Effectiveness

                     Availability

                         Market
                     Penetration
                     Long-Term
                   Cost Viability
                        Current
                        Maturity
                 Visualization
  CG001019
                  Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                      RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment-SI Engines
Lean Direct-Injection Turbocharged (LDIT) Engines
                                                                                            RICARDO
  Technology and Status
                    Ratings of Technology




Concept: In the LDIT concept the octane requirement is controlled using direct
injection and lean operation at full load
Base Functioning: LDIT engines combine the downsizing benefits described
on the previous slide with the additional efficiency benefit of homogeneous lean
operation at high load
CO2 Benefit: Drive-cycle benefit of 20-22%
Costs: 50-60% increase in engine and aftertreatment cost


1 -
(worst)
Effectiveness |
Availability |
Market •
Penetration '
Long-Term •
Pn«t Viahilitv I
v^Uol VldUlllly
Current i /
Maturity * \

* 10
(best)
^^^
v^B
\5/
<6)|
V
4\
/
  Technology Applicability
                Visualization
       LDIT engines are applicable to all vehicle classes
         Likely to predominate in mid-size vehicles and premium vehicles
       As a high compression ratio is maintained and lean operation is applied at all
       conditions LDIT engines provide fuel economy benefits across the majority of
       the operating map
         As a result, both city and highway fuel economy will benefit
 CG001019
                 Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                    RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment-SI Engines

High-Load  EGR  Engines
                                                                                                    RICARDO
   Technology and Status
                                                                          Ratings of Technology
Concept: This downsized Dl engine concept is analogous to LDIT, but octane
requirement is controlled by EGR dilution at full load rather than lean operation.
Base Functioning: High-load EGR engines combine the benefits of downsizing
described previously with the additional efficiency improvement of EGR dilution
at high load
CO2 Benefit: Drive-cycle benefit of 15-18%
Costs: 40-45% increase in engine and aftertreatment cost
   Technology Applicability
        High-load EGR engines are applicable to all vehicle classes
        As a high compression ratio is maintained and EGR dilution is applied at all
        conditions, High-load EGR engines provide fuel economy benefits across the
        operating map
          As a result, both city and highway fuel economy will benefit
                                                                                            (worst)
                                                                                Effectiveness

                                                                                  Availability

                                                                                      Market
                                                                                  Penetration
                                                                                  Long-Term
                                                                                Cost Viability
                                                                                     Current
                                                                                     Maturity
                                                                       Visualization
                                                                                 tf  I
  CG001019
                   Prepared for SRA and EPA
                                                     30 Seotember 2011
                                                                           RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment-SI Engines
Two-Stroke/Four-Stroke (2S-4S) Switching  Engines
                                                                                                 RICARDO
   Technology and Status
                     Ratings of Technology
       Concept: The vast majority of passenger cars use the four-stroke cycle, but
       some characteristics of two-stroke engines—especially high specific torque—
       remain attractive for automotive application. 2S-4S engines combine a
       combustion system capable of operating as both two-stroke and four-stroke with
       advanced valvetrain and boosting systems.
       Base Functioning: 2S-4S engines offer the greatest opportunity for engine
       downsizing, and hence improvement in efficiency
       CO2 Benefit: Drive-cycle benefit of 25-27%
       Costs: 70-80% increase in engine and aftertreatment cost
   Technology Applicability

        2S-4S engines operate in four-stroke mode for the majority of drive-cycle
        operation, so the emissions and fuel economy characteristics are those of a
        heavily downsized 4S Dl turbo engine
        2S-4S engines are most likely to be applied in premium vehicle segments
                               (worst)
                   Effectiveness

                     Availability

                         Market
                     Penetration
                     Long-Term
                   Cost Viability
                        Current
                        Maturity
                 Visualization
  CG001019
                  Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 September 2011
RD.11/342305.1

-------
Outline
                                                                        RICARDO
              Introduction
              Spark ignited engine technologies
                Downsized engines
              - Advanced valvetrains
                Combustion systems and fuels
                Engines for hybrid vehicles
              Diesel engine technologies
              Hybrid vehicle technologies
              Transmission technologies
              Vehicle technologies
              Conclusions
 CG001019
              Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment-SI Engines

Cam-Profile Switching Engines
                                                                                                  RICARDO
   Technology and Status
                     Ratings of Technology
       Concept: Cam-profile switching (CPS) systems allow selection between two or
       three cam profiles by means of a hydraulically-actuated mechanical system
         CPS systems have been developed by a number of Japanese and European
         OEMs, such as the Honda VTEC, Mitsubishi MIVEC, Porsche VarioCam and
         Audi Valvelift (pictured)
       Base Functioning: CPS systems can be optimised either to improve low-speed
       torque, or to improve fuel economy by reducing pumping losses at light load
       CO2 Benefit: Drive-cycle benefit of 5-7%
       Costs: 8-10% increase in  engine and aftertreatment cost


   Technology Applicability

        Cam-profile switching systems are applicable in all light-duty vehicle classes
        CPS systems produce most fuel economy benefit for part-load operation, so
        most benefit occurs for city driving and less for highway use
                               (worst)
                   Effectiveness

                      Availability

                         Market
                     Penetration
                      Long-Term
                    Cost Viability
                        Current
                        Maturity
                 Visualization
                                            10
(best)
  CG001019
                  Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                      RD.11/342305.1

-------
Outline
                                                                        RICARDO
              Introduction
              Spark ignited engine technologies
                Downsized engines
                Advanced valvetrains
                Combustion systems and fuels
                Engines for hybrid vehicles
              Diesel engine technologies
              Hybrid vehicle technologies
              Transmission technologies
              Vehicle technologies
              Conclusions
 CG001019
             Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment-SI Engines
Stoichiometric Direct-Injection  Engines
                                                                                                     RICARDO
   Technology and Status
                     Ratings of Technology
       Concept: Stoichiometric, homogeneous direct-injection gasolines operate in a
       very similar manner to port fuel-injected engines, except that fuel is injected
       directly into the cylinder. GDI engines were first introduced in Japan in 1996,
       and a significant number of new gasoline engines now feature direct injection.
       Base Functioning: The application of direct injection produces modest fuel
       economy benefits, resulting from the ability to apply higher compression ratio.
       CO2 Benefit: Drive-cycle benefit of ~3%
       Costs: 8-10% increase in engine and aftertreatment cost
   Technology Applicability
        Stoichiometric Dl engines are applicable in all vehicle classes
        The higher compression ratio facilitated by Dl improves both part-load and high-
        load efficiency, and therefore both highway and city fuel economy
                                             10
                                (worst)
                    Effectiveness  •  (3

                      Availability

                          Market
                      Penetration
                      Long-Term
                    Cost Viability
                         Current
                         Maturity
(best)
                  Visualization
  CG001019
                   Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                      RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment-SI Engines

Stratified Charge Direct-Injection Engines
                                                                                                     RICARDO
   Technology and Status
                                                                                Ratings of Technology
       Concept: In stratified-charge engines the fuel is injected late in the
       compression stroke with single or multiple injections. The aim is to produce an
       overall lean, stratified mixture, with a rich area in the region of the spark plug to
       enable stable ignition.
       Base Functioning: Stratified lean operation allows the gasoline engine to
       operate unthrottled, eliminating the majority of pumping losses.
       CO2 Benefit: Drive-cycle benefit of 8-1 0%
       Costs: 15-25% increase in engine and aftertreatment cost
Technology Applicability

     As a result of the FIE and aftertreatment costs, lean Dl systems are most
     applicable in premium vehicles
     As the fuel economy benefit derives from the reduction of pumping work, lean
     Dl engines produce most improvement in city driving
       There is limited benefit for highway driving
                                                                                          (worst)
                                                                              Effectiveness

                                                                                Availability

                                                                                    Market
                                                                                Penetration
                                                                                Long-Term
                                                                                   Viability
                                                                                   Current
                                                                                   Maturity
                                                                               Visualization
                                                                                                       10
(best)
  CG001019
                   Prepared for SRA and EPA
                                                          30 Seotember 2011
                                                                                RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment-SI Engines

HCCI/CAI Combustion
                                                                                                     RICARDO
   Technology and Status
                     Ratings of Technology
       Concept: Homogeneous charge compression ignition (HCCI), also known as
       controlled auto-ignition (CAI) combustion are distinct from the conventional SI
       and Cl engine operating modes
          In the idealized case HCCI/CAI combustion initiates simultaneously at
          multiple sites within the combustion chamber, and there is little or no flame
          propagation
       Base Functioning: Dual mode operation, with HCCI/CAI at part-load, and SI
       for high-load, idle and starting
       CO2 Benefit: Drive-cycle benefit of 2-10% (depending on whether the benefits
       of the constituent technologies are included or not)
       Costs: 20-30% increase in engine and aftertreatment cost
   Technology Applicability

        HCCI/CAI combustion is unlikely to be an attractive technology for light-duty
        gasoline vehicles in 2020-2025
          The operating envelope for HCCI/CAI combustion is very limited, and the
          additional benefits over the necessary constituent technologies (advanced
          valvetrains, GDI etc.) are also small
                                (worst)
                    Effectiveness  •  (3

                      Availability

                          Market
                      Penetration
                      Long-Term
                    Cost Viability
                         Current
                         Maturity

(best)
                                                                               Visualization
                                                                                  500   1000   1500  2000  2500  3000   3500  4001
                                                                                          Engine Speed [rev/min]
  CG001019
                   Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                      RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment-SI Engines

Exhaust  Energy  Recovery
                                                                                                      RICARDO
   Technology and Status
       Concept: Exhaust energy recovery encompasses a number of technologies,
       such as turbo-compounding and thermoelectric devices
          In turbo-compounding a radial turbine is connected through a mechanical
          transmission directly to the crankshaft
       Base Functioning: Turbines are generally sized to recover energy at high load
       operation; a variable-speed transmission between engine and turbine can be
       used to improve the efficient  operating range
       CO2 Benefit: Turbo-compounding has a drive-cycle benefit of 3-5%
       Costs: Not established for light-duty vehicles
   Technology Applicability
        Turbo-compounding is currently only applied to premium long-haul trucks
          In 2020 it will still be most applicable to the heavy light-duty truck segment,
          and the benefits will be reduced in comparison to heavy-duty vehicles
                      Ratings of Technology
                                              10
                                (worst)
           (best)
                    Effectiveness |  uy         |

                      Availability |      Zi72^B
                      Penetration
                       Long-Term
                     Cost Viability
                         Current
                         Maturity
•$
                  Visualization
                     Energy in Fuel
                                  Energy loss in the exhaustgas - 30%
                                                                                                    Recovery of more exhaust
                                                                                     Usable Engine Energy
  CG001019
                   Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                       RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment-SI Engines
Second-Generation Biofuels
                                                                                                   RICARDO
   Technology and Status
                     Ratings of Technology
       Concept: Second-generation biofuels refer to fuels coming from non-food
       sources (in this case gasoline-like fuels)
       Base Functioning: Wherever possible biofuels should operate in a manner
       identical to conventional gasoline
          Increasing blending of conventional gasoline and biofuels is likely to occur
       CO2 Benefit: The C02 benefits from the use of biofuels are complex and
       disputed
       Costs: There is no significant engine cost associated with the use of single-fuel
       biofuels (although appropriate materials must be applied in the fuel system)
   Technology Applicability

        Biofuels are applicable to all vehicle classes
        Tank-to-wheels fuel economy for biofuels is similar to that for conventional
        gasoline engines - benefits occur from the higher octane number of ethanol-
        based fuels
        Additional C02 benefits can be attributed to biofuel use if the complete life-cycle
        is considered (cellulosic ethanol, etc.)
                                            10
                               (worst)       (best)
                    Effectiveness ^H   <5)

                      Availability

                         Market
                      Penetration
                      Long-Term
                    Cost Viability
                         Current
                        Maturity
                  Visualization
                  n v s^ ^
                   "VJJX^U
  CG001019
                   Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                      RD.11/342305.1

-------
Outline
                                                                        RICARDO
              Introduction
              Spark ignited engine technologies
                Downsized engines
                Advanced valvetrains
                Combustion systems and fuels
                Engines for hybrid vehicles
              Diesel engine technologies
              Hybrid vehicle technologies
              Transmission technologies
              Vehicle technologies
              Conclusions
 CG001019
              Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment-SI Engines
Engines Optimized Micro-Hybrid (Stop-Start) Vehicles
                                                                                          RICARDO
  Technology and Status
                   Ratings of Technology











Concept: Application of stop-start or micro-hybrid concepts requires only very
minor changes in base engine architecture. Typically a belt-driven starter-
generator is applied in place of a separate starter motor and alternator.
Base Functioning: See hybrid vehicle slides
CO2 Benefit: See hybrid vehicle slides
Costs: Base engine costs are largely unchanged for stop-start systems.
Additional engineering cost is required to implement the stop-start calibration.





1 -
(worst)
^^^^
Effectiveness fly
V
Availability |
Market •
DonoirsiiifM^
r cllcli cLUUll
1 f\ n ft ^T^% FYY\
i_ony- 1 ern
PnQt Viahilitw 1
v^uoi victuiiiiy
Current i

Maturity *
» 10
(best)
•
Kol
^T
K10J
^r
A
^finl
__^^ m
>T

<8> 1

  Technology Applicability
                Visualization
       Stop-start should applied in all vehicle segments for the 2020 timeframe
       Given hybrid inititives, it is likely that most new engine development projects will
       consider integrating stop start functionality in program.
 CG001019
                 Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                    RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment-SI Engines

Engines  Optimized for Full Hybrid Vehicles
                                                                                                     RICARDO
   Technology and Status
                     Ratings of Technology
       Concept: In hybrid electric vehicle applications the gasoline engine can be
       optimised for use in the limited modes required by the full hybrid powertrain.
       Base Functioning: See hybrid vehicle slides
       CO2 Benefit: Strong function of degree of limited operating conditions.
       Costs: Base engine costs may be slightly reduced for hybrid vehicle
       applications through the use of lower specification engines.
   Technology Applicability
        Engine technology optimization for hybrid powertrains in infancy. Clear trend
        towards system level optimization to obtain best overall performance.
        Hybrid features such as stop-start, CVT operation, electrical launch, and
        electrical assist provide an oportuntity to optimize the engine system in ways
        not offered by conventional drivelines.
        Electrical assist offers opportunity to reduce engine size and specific power in
        hybrid vehicle and utilize lower specific power/ increased BSFC technologies
          (worst)
                    Effectiveness

                      Availability

                          Market
                      Penetration
                      Long-Term
                    Cost Viability
                         Current
                         Maturity
                  Visualization
                                             10
                                            (best)
  CG001019
                   Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 September 2011
RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment-SI Engines
SI Engine Technology Applicability
                                                                              RICARDO
     Please note that the applicability of hybrid powertrains is covered elsewhere in
     this report




















Vehicle
Classification



Small Car (Ford Focus)
Standard Car (Toyota Camry)
Small MPV (Saturn Vue)
Full-sized Car (Chrysler 300C)
Large MPV (Dodge Grand Caravan)
Truck (Ford F1 50)
Heavy light-duty truck (Ford F250/F350)
CO
0
o
3-
3'
3
CD

O
O
^
H
Ł
O"
0



X
X
X
X
X
X
X
1-
CD
Q)
3
CD
o
0
(A
o










X
X
X
X
X
X
X
m
0
7J
CD
0
O
r*
O










X
X
X
X
X
X
X
10
CO

CO
S:

D"
_
(Q
m
3
(Q
3
CD






X
X
X
X
o
Q>

TJ
•^
g
CD
CO

~
o
3-
3
(Q





X
X
X
X
X
X
CO
0
o
3-
3'
3
CD

O
O
™"
3
o
^.
,3
CD
O
5'
3
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
CO

Si
31
CD
Q.
O
3-

(Q
CD

O









X
X
X
X
i
o
o
0
^
o
o

CT
w
p*
O
3











m
X
3-
D)
Ł
(A
m
3
CD
(Q

71
CD
O
o

CD
•2








X
CO
CD
O
O
3
Q.
O
CD
3
CD
rj
Si
o
3
CD

|
CD
(A

X
X
X
X
X
X
X
 CG001019
               Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                 RD.11/342305.1

-------
Outline
                                                                           RICARDO
               Introduction
               Spark ignited engine technologies
               Diesel engine technologies
               Hybrid vehicle technologies
               Transmission technologies
               Vehicle technologies
               Conclusions
 CG001019
              Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                 RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment- Diesel Engines

Technology Area Overview
                                                                       RICARDO
    For this technology area, we have the following thoughts for the situation in
    2020-2025:

    Diesel Technology will continue to be developed driven largely by the European
    market but a gradual penetration will be seen in the US market

    Improvement is required in technology cost, particularly turbocharging and
    aftertreatment for significant penetration

    US market penetration for domestic producers is assumed to commence from
    the heavier vehicles in the study cascading down in size as technology matures,
    acceptance improves, and CO2 legislation drives incremental fleet actions

    Baseline is T2B5 (LEV II) applications currently in market
       Represents ca. 20% CO2 benefit from current baseline SI engine
       2020 diesel engines assumed to meet LEV III  (approximately current
       SULEV II) emissions
 CG001019
             Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment- Diesel Engines
Technology Status - Diesel Powertrain
Consideration made across all sectors of study
                           RICARDO
    Technology has very low take rate in US market in passenger car and light duty
    truck applications versus Europe
       Product typically only available in imported passenger car (e.g., VW, Audi,
       BMW and Mercedes)
       Domestic Product generally offered in LHDT (e.g. Ford Superduty)
       European Diesel share is half of market and covers all product families from
       sub-B (Fiat 500 class) to LHDT (Dodge Sprinter Class)
       European Market has a competitive CO2 driver leading to Diesel green
       branding (e.g. Ford Econetic, Mercedes Bluetec, VW Bluemotion)
    European Diesel Technology has seen many technology advances
       Sequential turbocharging
       Combustion correction techniques (e.g. UEGO, cylinder pressure)
       Large EGR coolers with hot gas  bypass
       Third generation FIE - 2000 Bar and multiple injections
       Mature DPF technology
       SCR technology applied
       Advanced materials - Al alloy heads and blocks, CGI blocks
 CG001019
             Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
               RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment- Diesel Engines
Diesel Technology List for US Applications
                                                                       RICARDO
    Closed Loop Combustion Control
    Reduced Compression Ratio
    Advanced Boosting Technologies
    Enhanced EGR and Charge Air Cooling
    Variable Valve Timing (With Application To Vary Compression Ratio)
    Pre-Turbine Catalysis
    Electric Turbo-Compounding
    Calibration "System"  Optimization for CO2 (Engine + Trans + Aftertreatment)
    Narrow Speed Range Operation
    System Integration at Engine Level
    Engine Downsizing - no slide - duplication with SI Engine
    Engine Friction Reduction - no slide
 CG001019
             Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment- Diesel Engines
Closed Loop Combustion Control
                                                                                                       RICARDO
   Technology and Status
                      Ratings of Technology
        Concept: Provide feedback from combustion by means of direct cylinder
        pressure measurement and analysis in EMS
        Base Functioning: Measure cylinder pressure during combustion to provide
        feedback for air, EGR, and fuel injection control to minimize error and correct for
        fuel quality allowing better trade-off for C02 emissions versus NOx and PM
        CO2 Benefit:  <1% from maintaining optimal combustion and facilitates further
        combustion optimization
        Costs:  Added variable costs for glowplug, added inputs and processing  power
        in engine control unit. Additional development time will be required to
        characterize the signal responses and tune calibration correction responses

   Technology Applicability

   •  Technology is applicable to light duty diesel applications commonly fitted with
      glowplugs. For heavier duty applications not engineered for glowplug alternate
      head gasket technology would need to be employed
   •  Highway benefits -  closed loop combustion feedback allows for real world  benefit
      plus closer margin between legal limits and development targets allowing further
      C02 combustion optimization
   •  City benefits - Further real world benefit available from combustion correction
      during transient events
      Other - lower cylinder to cylinder variation
                                 (worst)
                    Effectiveness

                       Availability

                           Market
                      Penetration
                       Long-Term
                     Cost Viability
                          Current
                         Maturity
                  Visualization
                                              10
         (best)
                    1. Plug
                    2. High voltage connection
                    3. Circuit board with electronics
                    4. Gasket
5. Measuring diaphragm
6. Glow plug body
7. Glow plug heating rod
                                                                                 Picture: www.beru.com
  CG001019
                   Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                       RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment- Diesel Engines
Reduced  Compression Ratio
                                                                                                     RICARDO
   Technology and Status
                     Ratings of Technology
       Concept: Reduction of the compression ratio reduces the peak firing pressure
       of the engine. This reduces the pumping losses and allows for higher specific
       power to be achieved
       Base Functioning: Pumping losses contribute to the total frictional losses
       (FMEP) of an engine. Reduction of the losses means less fuel energy is wasted
       resulting in higher fuel efficiency
       CO2 Benefit:  1% per ratio plus additional from downsizing opportunity
       Costs:    Reduced compression ratio requires additional effort to start the
       engine in colder ambient conditions. An enablerfor significant compression ratio
       reduction would be increased starter energy availability allowed by high voltage
       hybrid ISG systems
   Technology Applicability
      Applicable to Diesel ISG applications to enable increased cranking speed for start
      performance
      Highway benefits - Increased specific power from the engine enables engine
      downsizing. Reduced pumping loss gives benefit across the full speed and load
      range
      City benefits -As pumping losses are a greater proportion of part load operation
      the benefit should be more marked in city operation
      Idle-stop benefits - Idle fuelling will be reduced although pre-cursor of ISG
      enables full  stop-start benefit
                                (worst)
                    Effectiveness  •  (3

                      Availability

                          Market
                      Penetration
                      Long-Term
                    Cost Viability
                         Current
                         Maturity

                  Visualization
(best)
                            Visualization
                                 Not
                             Applicable
  CG001019
                   Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                      RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment- Diesel Engines
Advanced  Boosting Technologies
                                                                                                     RICARDO
   Technology and Status
                     Ratings of Technology
        Concept: Improvements in air handling through a suite of boosting
        technologies either standalone or in combination
        Base Functioning: Provision of higher specific torque and power to enable
        downsized engines. Technologies include eBoost (e-machine in CHRAor
        electrical separation by e-Turbine and e-Compressor); supercharging (advances
        to avoid variable drive); variable nozzle compressor
        CO2 Benefit: 2% (more if engine downsized for equivalent performance)
        Costs:  Increase in turbocharger air system matching and development time,
        increased complexity in engine controller. Variable cost of turbocharger doubles
        plus additional air cooling requirement, sensors and actuators

   Technology Applicability

   •  Technology applicable to all sectors of diesel application
   •  Highway benefits - improved transient response from engine allows downsizing.
      More air allows improved emission performance for NOx and PM control giving
      leeway for C02 reduction.
   •  City benefits - much improved transient performance allowing downsizing.
      Operation in more efficient area of turbocharger map gives more noticeable C02
      benefit in city driving
      In conjunction with enhanced EGR allows for premixed or homogeneous
      combustion in part load operation for very clean emissions. Design can facilitate
      the use of pre-TC catalyst for quick aftertreatment light-off
                                             10
                                (worst)
                    Effectiveness  • (3

                      Availability

                          Market
                      Penetration
                      Long-Term
                    Cost Viability
                         Current
                         Maturity
(best)
                  Visualization
                                                                               Picture: http://honeywellbooster.com
  CG001019
                   Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                      RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment- Diesel Engines
Enhanced EGR  Flow &  Cooling
(Plus  Increased  Charge Air Cooling)
                                       RICARDO
   Technology and Status
                     Ratings of Technology
       Concept: Low Pressure EGR Circuit for increased EGR flow rate in conjunction
       with separate low temperature cooling circuit to cool EGR and provide additional
       charge air cooling
       Base Functioning: Increased EGR and cooler charger enables homogeneous,
       fully premixed and partially premixed combustion concepts. These concepts
       reduce NOx and PM emissions allowing more margin for C02 optimization.
       Lower charge temperature provides a larger P-V area and increases specific
       power and economy
       CO2 Benefit: 2-4% from combined emission and cooling benefit
       Costs: Increased development cost for EGR and cooling system packaging.
       Additional work to optimize cooling pack. EGR cost increases 40-50% plus
       incremental costs for additional cooling system components and material
       revisions necessary to cope with corrosive environment in charge cooler with
       EGR present
   Technology Applicability
     Applicable to Light Duty Chassis Certification Applications requiring EGR at low
     speed and load:
     Highway benefits - Fuel economy improvement from increased charge cooling
     and improved compressor efficiency (EGR flows through TC compressor)
     City benefits - Significant emission benefit allowing combustion to be optimized
     more for C02. Compressor efficiency improved for reduced pumping loss
     A significant challenge remains for TC compressor durability with heavy EGR flow
     rates
                                            10
                               (worst)       (best)
                   Effectiveness  •    (4)

                      Availability

                         Market
                     Penetration
                      Long-Term
                   Cost Viability
                        Current
                        Maturity
                 Visualization
                                                                            Picture: VWTech Report
                                                                            29. Internationales Wiener MotorensvmDosium 2008
  CG001019
                  Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                      RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment- Diesel Engines
Variable Valve Timing
(With Application To Vary Compression Ratio)
                                       RICARDO
   Technology and Status
       Concept: Variable Valve Events enable valve events to be optimzed for
       oeprating point and also enable effective compression ratio variation
       Base Functioning:  Intake and Exhaust Valve Events varied for rapid
       aftertreatment warm-up and best breathing at operating condition rather than
       global optimization. With more complex system, compression ratio can also be
       varied to reduce frictional losses and increase specific power
       CO2 Benefit:   1-2% from warm-up & improved breathing. Additional gain if
       aftertreatment warmup creates NOx advantage to be used for C02 benefit
       Costs:    Costs increase for valvetrain technology with some offset in
       aftertreatment cost. Additional development cost to develop for diesel engine
       application with incremental engine controller costs for drive circuits

   Technology Applicability

   •  Applicable to complete diesel line-up from small car to MDV
   •  Highway benefits - Increased specific power from the engine enables engine
      downsizing. Reduced pumping loss  gives benefit across the full speed and load
      range
   •  City benefits -As pumping losses are a greater proportion of part load operation
      the benefit should be more marked in city operation
   •  Idle-stop benefits - ability to raise compression ratio allows  stop start to be more
      readily employed than reduced compression ratio alone as ISG is not necessary
      for restart
                     Ratings of Technology
                                            10
                               (worst)
                    Effectiveness

                      Availability

                          Market
                      Penetration
                       (best)
                      Long-Term •    A
                                    V
Cost Viability
     Current
    Maturity
                  Visualization
                                                                              Picture: Valeo e-'
  CG001019
                   Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                      RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment- Diesel Engines

Pre-Turbine  Catalysis
                                                                                                         RICARDO
   Technology and Status
                      Ratings of Technology
        Concept: Small Oxidation Catalyst (DOC) is placed before first turbocharger
        very close to the engine
        Base Functioning: Small pre-turbine catalyst with low thermal inertia lights off
        quickly allowing further exotherm to warm up rest of aftertreatment more rapidly.
        Reduced warm-up will require lower use of fuel for heating strategies reducing
        C02 emissions
        CO2 Benefit:  <1 % - more for cold start cycles.
        Costs:    Additional cost for pre-turbine catalyst precious metal partially offset
        by reduced precious metal in remainder of aftertreatment system

   Technology Applicability
      Applicable to all diesel technology applications but with more relevance on
      applications with larger engines and large aftertreatment systems with greater
      thermal inertia
      Highway benefits - Minimal benefit and only soon after starting when
      aftertreatment is cold
      City benefits - Benefit most noticeable for real world situations when vehicle is
      used frequently for short journeys from cold or cool start when aftertreatment is
      below effective operating temperature
      Pre-turbine catalyst allows for less aggressive heating strategies to keep
      aftertreatment in correct operating temperature window
      Component durability must be considered in placing catalyst closer to engine and
      may require metallic catalyst substrate
                                 (worst)
                     Effectiveness

                       Availability

                           Market
                       Penetration
                       Long-Term
                     Cost Viability
                          Current
                          Maturity
                   Visualization
                                               10
(best)
                    Picture: www.emitec.com
  CG001019
                    Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                       RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment- Diesel Engines

Electric  Turbo-Compounding
                                                                                                      RICARDO
   Technology and Status
                      Ratings of Technology
       Concept: Electric turbo-compounding device recovers waste exhaust energy
       and converts this to electrical energy
       Base Functioning: Exhaust energy that would otherwise be wasted is used to
       drive a turbine coupled to an electrical generator to generate electrical power.
       The electrical power can be stored in conjunction with hybridization or fed back
       as shaft power directly to reduce fuel demand on engine
       CO2 Benefit:  4-5%  improvement in fuel efficiency depending on cycle
       Costs:    Technology is proven on heavy duty applications but specific
       development would be required for lighter duty matching and application.
       Incremental variable cost for ETC and power electronics.

   Technology Applicability

      Already applied to heavy duty applications - more applicable to heavier
      applications
   •  Highway benefits - significant benefit - up to 5% depending on duty cycle and
      engine  load on highway
   •  City benefits - transient low speed and load does not offer the same quality of
      exhaust energy for energy recovery. There is potential for worsened fuel economy
      due to increased back-pressure at some parts of operation
      Idle-stop benefits would be acheived if coupled with hybridization
   •  More benefit would be obtained with electrification of accessories.
                                              10
                                (worst)       (best)

                    Effectiveness ^^H__(5>

                      Availability

                          Market
                      Penetration
                       Long-Term •    A
                     Cost Viability
                         Current
                         Maturity
Current  •   A
           V
                  Visualization
                                                                                Picture: Source: John Deere, DEER 2006
  CG001019
                   Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                       RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment- Diesel Engines
Calibration "System" Optimization  for CO2
(Engine + Transmission + Aftertreatment)
                                                                                                RICARDO
 Technology and Status
                                                                               Ratings of Technology
      Concept: Application of a sytem level technology selection to add increased
      NOx aftertreatment allowing optimization of engine out emissions for lower C02
      and higher NOx (and revised total gearing)
      Base Functioning:  Instead of minimizing engine out NOx for smaller NOx
      aftertreatment a system approach for C02 could oversize NOx aftertreatment
      and allow increased engine out NOx emissions with reduced engine out C02.
      Combined with transmission ratio selection for C02 rather than NOx
      CO2 Benefit:  2-4% offset by increased DEF utilization and partially offset by
      increased fuel consumption during warm-up to light off aftertreatment
      Costs:    Aftertreatment cost would rise in line with additional reduction
      capacity. DEF system would also need to be resized to account for additional
      DEF consumption

 Technology Applicability

    Technology applicable to all areas of diesel application
 •  Highway benefits - lower C02 emission by reduced engine speed operation from
    higher gearing and more optimal C02 calibration with  increased engine out NOx
 •  City benefits - lower engine speed and improved transient C02 provide lower
    speed and load benefits
 •  Idle-stop - stop start operation would need to be treated carefully to maintain
    aftertreatment operating temperature
    Increase DEF consumption woudl offset cost benefit to end-user and extend
    payback duration
                                                                                                      10
                                                                                         (worst)       (best)
                                                                              Effectiveness •    (4)

                                                                                Availability

                                                                                    Market
                                                                                Penetration
                                                                                Long-Term
                                                                              Cost Viability
                                                                                   Current
                                                                                  Maturity
                                                                            Visualization
                                                                          Picture: Ricardo, Inc.
CG001019
                 Prepared for SRA and EPA
                                                           30 Seotember 2011
                                                                                RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment- Diesel Engines
Narrow Speed  Range Operation
                                                                                                         RICARDO
   Technology and Status
                      Ratings of Technology
        Concept: Powertrain designed to enable the engine to operate within a narrow
        speed band range with full emissions and economy optimization in this range
        Base Functioning: Powertrain coupled to hybrid systems and/or highly flexible
        transmissions allowing engine to be optimized for narrow speed band for best
        emissions and economy. Contrast to traditional optimization that considers
        entire speed load range requirements with many compromises
        CO2 Benefit:  2-4% from optimization of combustion plus more opportunity by
        limiting higher engine speed for friction reduction with design factors for narrow
        speed range envelope
        Costs: Little impact to cost if highly flexible transmissions and/or hybrid already
        selected. Reduced engine optimization development offset by increased
        powertrain system development

   Technology Applicability

   •  Applicable to all classes of vehicles using hybrid systems or high numbers of gear ratios
      that allow engine speed  range to be very narrow
      Highway benefits - Improved economy by maintaining engine in high efficiency island.
      Enhanced benefit if emission spikes in transient operation can be avoided allowing
      further optimization for fuel economy
   •  City benefits - As highway plus ability to set speed and load on engine for rapid
      aftertreatment warm-up. Engine speed set point can be matched to provide optimal
      electrical energy generation efficiency for recharging hybrid energy reserve enhancing
      idle and stop benefits
   •  Constant speed operation may prove un-desirable noise characteristic compared to
      traditional powertrain solutions
                                 (worst)
. 10
(best)
                     Effectiveness

                       Availability

                           Market
                       Penetration
                       Long-Term
                     Cost Viability
                          Current
                          Maturity
                   Visualization
                             Engine Speed (RPM)
                                                                                  Picture: Ricardo Inc.
  CG001019
                    Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                       RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment- Diesel Engines
System  Integration at Engine  Level
                                                                                                     RICARDO
   Technology and Status
                     Ratings of Technology
       Concept: Combine components to reduce mass and thermal inertia giving
       improved package and faster warm-up. Electrify ancillaries to eliminate FEAD
       and allow variable performance independent of engine speed
       Base Functioning: Combination of components (e.g. exhaust manifold and
       cylinder head) to improve response time for turbocharging and aftertreatment
       warm-up. Electrification of FEAD reduces parasitic losses and allows operation
       to be optimized to most efficient condition for operating point (e.g electrical
       coolant pump, oil pump or AC compressor)
       CO2 Benefit:  1-2%
       Costs:  Added variable costs for more complex production offset by reduced
       material. Electrification in conjunction with hybridization.
   Technology Applicability

   •  Technology is applicable to all diesel technology sectors
      Highway benefits - reduced frictional losses at higher speed and load points by
      designing and running ancillaries at optimal conditions
   •  City benefits - Rapid aftertreatment warm-up reduces fuel consumption in warm-
      up phase and allows earlier transition to warm fuel efficient maps. Ability to run
      ancillaries faster at lower engine speeds will enable lower power loss and should
      enable component downsizing
                                             10
                                (worst)
(best)
                    Effectiveness

                      Availability

                          Market
                      Penetration
                      Long-Term
                    Cost Viability
                         Current
                         Maturity
                  Visualization
                                                                               Picture: Ricardo, Inc.
  CG001019
                   Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                      RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment- Diesel Engines
Diesel Engine Technology Applicability
                                                                               RICARDO
     Please note that the applicability of hybrid powertrains is covered in a separate





















Vehicle
Classification



Small Car (Ford Focus)
Standard Car (Toyota Camry)
Small MPV (Saturn Vue)
Full-sized Car (Chrysler 300C)
Large MPV (Dodge Grand Caravan)
Truck (Ford F1 50)
Heavy light-duty truck (Ford F250/F350)
0



Q.
^
0
O
o
0
3
CT
c

Ł•.
O
3
0
O
3
0.
X
X
X
X
X
X

2,
CD
Q.
Ł
O
CD
Q.
o
o
3

CD
CO
0
3
71
03

O

X
X
X
X
X
X
X
35,
Q.
^
03
3
O
CD
Q.
00
0
0
CO
3"
(Q
H
CD
31
3
O
0
(Q
CD
CO
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
o m
0 3
o 31
= 03
(Q O
CD
Q.
m
0
zj

3
Q.
O
3"
03
CD
5

X
X
X
X
X
X
X
<
03

03
CT

<

CD
H
3
5'
(Q





X
X
X
X
X
X
X
-o
3

— i

CT
3
CD
O
03


CO
CO









X
X
X
m
CD

S
o'


^
O"
0
o
o
3


Q.
3
(Q




X
X
X
X
o
03
~
CT
i

o
3

CO
CO
rt-
CD
3
-
O
•o
3
N
Si
o
3
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
z
03
•^
3
0

CO
•o
CD
CD
Q.
71
03
(Q
CD
O


5'
3

X
X
X
X
X
X
X
m
3
(Q

CD
CO


CD

3
CD
(Q
-i
Si
5'
3



X
X
X
X
X
X
X
 CG001019
               Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                 RD.11/342305.1

-------
Outline
                                                                           RICARDO
               Introduction
               Spark ignited engine technologies
               Diesel engine technologies
               Hybrid vehicle technologies
              Transmission technologies
              Vehicle technologies
              Conclusions
 CG001019
              Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                 RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment- Hybridized Powertrains
Hybrid Functionality Matrix

     Hybrid technology's primary purpose is to enable vehicle functionally that offers fuel efficiency.
                                     RICARDO
None
Conventional

Micro
Belt
starter /
generator

Micro
Belt
mounted
parallel

Mild
Crank
mounted
parallel
/||\fl A \

Full
P2 parallel
hybrid

Full
Input
Powersplit

Full
Compound
powersplit

Full
2-mode
powersplit

Full
Series
hybrid -
Electrical

Full
Series
hybrid -
Hydraulic

Engine idle off
Launch assist
Regeneration
Electrical only
mobility
CVT
No
No
No
No
No
Yes
No
No
NO
No
Yes
Small
amount
Small
amount
No
No
Yes
Some
Some
No
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Power Steering
Air conditioning
Brakes
Belt
Belt
Standard
Electrical
Belt
Standard
Electrical
Belt
Standard
Electrical
Belt
Standard or
blended
Electrical
Belt or
electrical
Blended
Electrical
Belt or
electrical
Blended
Electrical
Belt or
electrical
Blended
Electrical
Belt or
electrical
Blended
Electrical
Belt or
electrical
Blended
Electrical
Belt or
electrical
Blended
ICity Driving
Highway Driving
0
0
+
0
++
0
++
+
+++
+
++++
+
++++
+
++++
+
++++
-
++++ 1
- 1
 CG001019
                  Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                     RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment- Hybridized Powertrains
Hybrid Technology Area Considerations
                                                                               RICARDO
     Hybrid technology largely available now but needs cost reduction efforts to provide
     financial justification to consumers; largely expected to come through volume increases
     (economy of scale) & commodity mindset

     Pace of development
       Change in fuel prices (or fuel tax legislation) could dramatically accelerate (or slow)
       hybrid development and implementation. CAFE requirements will drive technology
       development in near term.
       Li-ion battery development largely in flux as well, but not necessarily an impact to
       hybrid development, as NiMH is sufficient (i.e., Li-ion required for EV and PHEV but not
       current strong hybrid technology)

     Many hybrid applications today being consumed by early (technology) adopters and/or
     those focused on environmental impact and energy independence
       Hybridization still difficult to justify based purely on financial business case
       Governmental legislation (e.g., CAFE  or CO2 requirements) largely responsible for
       hybrid investment

     Benefits of hybrid technologies are generally independent of component technologies
     (Electrical machine & energy storage) due to good round trip efficiency attributes of current
     technologies.
       Some small correlation exists, and with parameterization in model, opportunity to
       sweep parameters to evaluation sensitivity.
 CG001019
               Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                  RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment- Hybridized Powertrains

Micro  Hybrid: Stop-Start
                                                                                                       RICARDO
   Technology Description and Status
                      Ratings of Technology
        Concept: Most basic of hybridization, allows for simple engine shut-off during
        idle periods; typically employs enhanced starter motor and limited use of driver
        comfort features during engine off (e.g. Radio, some heat, but no A/C)
        Base Functioning: Decreases wasted fuel by minimzing idling but provides no
        benefit for highway use or when air conditioning is required/desired
        CO2 Benefit:  3-5% over city cycles. 0% over highway
        Costs:  This is the lowest cost hybrid system and can be implemented relatively
        quickly on most vehicles on the market today.  Stop-start systems are
        somewhat mature and readily available off the shelf.  Further development will
        yield increased user acceptance (e.g. Transparent integration with little to no
        detriment to existing vehicles in terms of NVH, acceleration, etc.)
   Technology Applicability

      Stop-start technology can be applied to almost all vehicles including passenger
      cars, medium and heavy duty trucks and even off-highway or agricultural
      vehicles.
   •  Benefits are limited, though, to vehicle applications that have some periods of
      idling. For example, long-haul trucks with extended highway operation will see
      little to no benefit.  Similiarly, as air conditioning is not available during engine-off
      periods, users may experience some degradation in performance that could be
      unacceptable.
                                              10
                                 (worst)
(best)
                     Effectiveness

                       Availability

                           Market
                      Penetration
                       Long-Term
                     Cost Viability
                          Current
                         Maturity
                  Visualization
  CG001019
                   Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                       RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment- Hybridized Powertrains
Mild Hybrid: Integrated  Belt Starter-Generator (IBSG)
                                                                                                    RICARDO
   Technology Description and Status
                     Ratings of Technology
       Concept: The alternator is replaced with a new electric machine that can
       provide lauch assist as well as replacing the electrical supply of the alternator
       during normal vehicle operation.  Typically this machine can also be used for
       energy recapture during braking..
       Base Functioning: Provides stop-start functionality (see "Stop-Start" slide) as
       well as electric launch assist, which, when coupled to a dedicated energy
       storage system with a charge sustaining strategy, can decrease fuel
       consumption during acceleration from a stop.
       CO2 Benefit:  3-7% over city cycles,  ~0% over highway cycles
       Costs: Several IBSG systems are on the market today so development costs
       are largely sunk. Purchase costs of the system are now decreasing as volume
       grows such that financial payback may be viable soon.

   Technology Applicability

      IBSG systems can be applied to a wide variety of applications including
      passenger cars and medium and heavy duty trucks with benefits seen in city
      cycles. Due to the small size of the IBSG, relatively limtied ability to downsize,
      but some bennefit.
                  Visualization
                     In lire 6 cylinder OQHC
                                             10
                                (worst)       (best)
                    Effectiveness ^H   <5)

                      Availability

                          Market
                      Penetration
                      Long-Term
                    Cost Viability
                         Current
                        Maturity
  CG001019
                   Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                      RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment- Hybridized Powertrains
Mild Hybrid:  Integrated Crank Starter-Generator (ICSG)
[also known  as Integrated  Motor Assist (IMA)]
                                      RICARDO
  Technology Description and Status
                    Ratings of Technology
       Concept: An e-machine is added to or replaces the flywheel. Larger than the
       e-machine used in an ISBG, the motor can provide lauch assist and
       regenerative braking as well additional power during a variety of vehicle
       operating modes and, thus, is applied in conjunction with a downsized engine.
       Base Functioning: Provides stop-start functionality and launch assist. This
       provides the opportunity to use of a smaller engine to increase efficiency
       throughout the operating range of the vehicle, not just during launch from a
       stop.
       CO2 Benefit:  16-20% on city cycles, ~0% on highway cycles
       Costs:  ICSG systems are on the market today so development costs are
       largely sunk.  Purchase costs of the system are now decreasing as volume
       grows and the greater fuel efficiency is great enough to provide reasonable
       financial payback today.
  Technology Applicability

      ICSG systems can be applied to a wide variety of applications including
      passenger cars and medium and heavy duty trucks with benefits mostly seen in
      city drive cycles. The reduced engine sizes enabled by the hybrid system provide
      highway bennefits.
      Typically, these systems have been used with a CVT to avoid Torque converter
      losses.
                                           10
                              (worst)
(best)
                   Effectiveness

                     Availability

                         Market
                     Penetration
                     Long-Term
                   Cost Viability
                        Current
                       Maturity
                 Visualization
  CG001019
                  Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                     RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment- Hybridized Powertrains

Full  Hybrid: P2 parallel Hybrid
   Technology and Status
        Concept: An e-machine is inserted between the engine and the transmission,
        typically with a clutch between the engine and e-machine.  Larger than the e-
        machine used in an ISBG, the motor can provide lauch assist and regenerative
        braking as well additional power during a variety of vehicle operating modes
        and, thus, is applied in conjunction with a downsized engine.
        Base Functioning: Provides stop-start, electrical launch, and launch assit. This
        optimizes the use of a smaller engine to increase efficiency throughout the
        operating range of the vehicle, not just during launch from a stop.
        CO2 Benefit:  18-22% on city cycles, ~0% on highway cycles (downsizing
        offers bennefits)
        Costs:    No P2 parallel hybrids are in production today, so development costs
        will still need to be invested, however parts bin exists today. The cost of the
        system is higher thana ICSG, however, the system has only 1  electrical machine
        so its costs should be lower than more advanced hybrids

   Technology Applicability
       P2 hybrids can be applied to a wide variety of applications including passenger
       cars and medium and heavy duty trucks with benefits seen mostly in city drive
       cycles. The reduced engine sizes enabled by the hybrid system provide highway
       bennefits.
       System can be used with an AT, however, To maintain efficiency, a CVT or DCT
       should be used to avoid Torque converter losses.
                                                                                                       RICARDO
                      Ratings of Technology
                                 (worst)
                    Effectiveness

                       Availability

                          Market
                      Penetration
                       Long-Term
                    Cost Viability
                          Current
                         Maturity
                  Visualization
                                             Wheels
                    Clutch
                    Transmission
  CG001019
                   Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                       RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment- Hybridized Powertrains

Full  Hybrid: Input Power Split Hybrid
                                                                                                       RICARDO
   Technology Description and Status
                      Ratings of Technology
        Concept: Power split hybrids use an electric machine directly integrated into
        the transmission, and either provide an additional input parallel to the engine or
        act as an additional output from the transmission.  Both varieties permit an
        electric (only) operating mode.
        Base Functioning: Power split encompasses all of the aforementioned
        technology providing stop-start, launch, and engine downsizing benefits in plus
        the ability to provide an electric-only operating mode, when used in conjunction
        with the appropriate electric accessories.
        CO2 Benefit:  22-33% in city driving, some bennefit in highway driving
        Costs:  Development is ongoing with room for both performance improvement
        and cost reduction but initial systems are now widely spread in the market place
        (e.g. Ford Fusion and Escape and Toyota Prius).

   Technology Applicability

   •  As a full or strong hybrid, the power split hybrid offers very good benefit of
      hybridization
   •  Challenge with cost due to two electrical machine solution.
   •  Fuel efficiency improvement is found across the range and in all operating cycles
      since engine downsizing and electric accessories optimize performance and
      efficiency of the combustion engine and the vehicle as a whole
                                 (worst)
                    Effectiveness

                       Availability

                          Market
                      Penetration
                       Long-Term
                     Cost Viability
                          Current
                         Maturity
                  Visualization
                          Gene-ator
                    1C Engine
                      Sun 3 = 3
                      Piarwtary Gears
                      Annul us
Electric
 Motor
                                              Whesls
  CG001019
                   Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                       RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment- Hybridized Powertrains

Full  Hybrid:  Two-Mode Power Split
                                                                                                     RICARDO
   Technology Description and Status
                     Ratings of Technology
       Concept:  Two-Mode hybrids use electric machines (usually two) directly
       integrated into the transmission for maximum operating flexibility with operation
       as input powersplit or compound power split gearing configuration via clutch
       actuation.
       Base Functioning: Two-Mode encompasses all of the aforementioned
       technology providing stop-start, launch, and enables engine downsizing benefits
       in plus the ability to provide an electric-only operating mode, when used in
       conjunction with the appropriate electric accessories.
       CO2 Benefit:  22-33% in city drive cycle.  Some bennefit in highway driving
       Costs:  Development is ongoing as Two-Mode hardware is still very expensive,
       providing little commercial payback to the customer currently. However, Two-
       Mode systems are proliferating in the market place with GM offering truck and
       SUV variants now, and BMW, Mercedes and Chrysler products coming soon).

   Technology Applicability
      As a full or strong hybrid, the Two-Mode hybrid offers maximum benefit of
      hybridization but is also the most costly and complex of all architectures to
      implement.
      Fuel efficiency improvement is found across the range and in all operating cycles
      since engine downsizing and electric accessories optimize performance and
      efficiency of the combustion engine and the vehicle as a whole
                                (worst)
                    Effectiveness

                      Availability

                          Market
                      Penetration
                      Long-Term
                    Cost Viability
                         Current
                         Maturity
                  Visualization
                              Steady Stite ENfcfencv
                                                                                            Vihicte Spnd |mph]
  CG001019
                   Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                      RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment- Hybridized Powertrains

Full  Hybrid: Series Electrical
                                                                                                       RICARDO
   Technology and Status
                      Ratings of Technology
        Concept: Series electrical hybrid systems include two electrical machines and
        a battery.  One EM is located on drvie axle and is sized for peak loads, and
        second EM is located on engine and is sized for average loads.
        Base Functioning: Energy storage system enables load averageing and
        engine off operation.  As driveline and engine are decoupled, engine can be
        single point engine or operate on best-efficiency line engine.
        CO2 Benefit:  22-33% in city drive cycle. Potenally reduced in highway
        driving, depending on degree of reduced engine size enabled.
        Costs:    The cost implications of two electrical machines (one large and one
        small) and a battery have limited the appeal of this technology to the industry.

   Technology Applicability
       Series hybrids are not currently in production, and technology approach has not
       been embraced by industry (has been championed in research community) due
       to the costs associated with multiple large electrical machine size & a battery.
       With introduction of EVs, opportuntity for industry to gain comfert with series
       electrical and increase volumes to reduce costs.
                                              10
                                 (worst)
(best)
                    Effectiveness

                       Availability

                          Market
                      Penetration
                       Long-Term
                     Cost Viability
                          Current
                         Maturity
                  Visualization
  CG001019
                   Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                       RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment- Hybridized Powertrains

Full Hybrid:  Series  Hydraulic
                                                                                                         RICARDO
   Technology Description and Status
        Concept: Hydraulic accumulators are used to aid in deceleration, then the
        stored energy is released back into the vehicle for launch assist using hydraulic
        pumps connected to an axle or transmission.
        Base Functioning: Kinetic energy that would otherwise be translated to heat in
        the braking system is recaptured for later use. Can also be used for engine
        downsizing.
        CO2 Benefit:   22-33% in city drive cycle. Potenally reduced  in highway
        driving, depending on degree of reduced engine size enabled.
        Costs: Hydraulic hybridization is still in early development with only a few
        demonstration vehicles on the road today. Application of hydraulic hybridization
        is much less costly in vehicles that already employ extensive hydraulic systems
        for specific vocations (e.g., garbage compactor) and increased efficiency is
        limited to vocations with extreme stop-start cycles and agressive deceleration.

   Technology Applicability

   •  Hydraulic hybrid systems typically suggested in niche applications such as refuse
      trucks, where large power required for regeneration is well suited to hydraulic
      systems.
   •  Potentially reduced fuel economy in highway driving, depending on degree of
      reduced engine size enabled.
      Hydraulic hybrid technology development has been significantly slower than
      electrical hybrid technology development rate, and use of hydraulic driveline is
      not consistent with other high profile technology initiatives such as EVs, PHEVs
      and vehicle electrification.
                      Ratings of Technology
                                               10
                                 (worst)
(best)
                     Effectiveness

                       Availability

                           Market
                       Penetration
                       Long-Term
                     Cost Viability
                          Current
                          Maturity
                   Visualization
                          • .-i-.i i-       High Tr-. i-r
                                Hvdmub? Eit*rgv Sle*og* A
                                          Socoraf Mydiouhc
                                           fi.rnp. Male,
  CG001019
                    Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                       RD.11/342305.1

-------
Outline
                                                                           RICARDO
               Introduction
               Spark ignited engine technologies
               Diesel engine technologies
               Hybrid vehicle technologies
              Transmission technologies
              Vehicle technologies
              Conclusions
 CG001019
              Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                 RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment - Transmissions
Technology Area  Overview
                                                                                               RICARDO
      For this technology area, we have the following thoughts for the situation for in
      2020-2025:
         North American market will continue to be dominated by automatic transmissions for 1C engines with emphasis on
         increasing launch device efficiency and smart kinematics design
         Higher presence of more fuel efficient AMT's and DCT's expected
         Increase in simplified single/two speed gearboxes for hybrid applications
         CVT development expected to be on the decline in the North American market (although still being pursued by
         Japanese market)

      Pace of development
         Development of AMI and DCT technology expected to be implemented from European and Japanese efforts
         Detroit 3 actively pursuing DCT technology, with teaming arrangements established between OEMs and Tier 1 to
         develop technologies
         Improvements for automatic transmissions are on-going with new technologies being implemented into luxury
         vehicles and then cascaded down to other vehicle classes.
         Single/two speed gearboxes for hybrid applications require minimal investment and lead time

      Comparison to baseline
         Given 94% of North American transmissions are automatic, improvements in efficiency (resulting in C02
         improvements) will be realized through:
            Smart kinematics design (2-5%)
            Component efficiency improvement or alternative technologies (3%)
            Launch devices (2-6%)
            Dry sump technology (2%)
         Estimates of improvement depend on the drive cycle, are not simply additive, and are subject to quality of baseline
  CG001019
                  Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                     RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment - Transmissions

Transmission  Summary
         Automatic (with Torque Converter)
     Hydraulically operated, using a fluid coupling or
     torque converter and a set of gearsets to provide
     a range of gear ratios

     Decrease in efficiency associated with viscous
     losses from torque converter
  |    CVT (Continuous Variable Transmission)
      Rather than using gears, the CVTs in
      currently available vehicles utilize a
      pair of variable-diameter pulleys
      connected by a belt or chain that can
      produce an infinite number of
      engine/wheel speed ratios.
      Reliability and efficiency issues
      prevent this technology from
      roadmap development
                                                                                          RICARDO
  AMT (Automatic Manual Transmission)
AMI operates similarly to a manual transmission
except that it does not require clutch actuation or
shifting by the driver.
Automatic shifting is controlled electronically
(shift-by-wire) and performed by a hydraulic
system or electric motor.
Poor shift quality has excluded this technology
from the study
     DCT (Dual Clutch Transmission)
 Uses two separate clutches
 for even and odd gear sets
 Eliminates the use of a
 torque converter and utilizes
 either wet or dry type launch
 clutches
  CG001019
                 Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                    RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment - Transmissions
Technology Area Summary
     Launch Devices
     - Wet Clutch
       Damp Clutch
     - Dry Clutch
       Multi-damper Torque converter
       Magnetic clutch
     Shifting Clutch Technology
     Smart Kinematic Design
     Dry Sump
     Efficient Components
     Super Finishing
     Lubrication
 CG001019
              Prepared for SRA and EPA
                                                                        RICARDO
30 Seotember 2011
                RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment - Transmissions

Launch  Device: Wet Clutch
                                                                                                      RICARDO
   Technology and Status
       Concept: provides torque transmission during operation by means of friction
       action between surfaces wetted by a lubricant
       Base Functioning: Increases fuel effieciency by reducing hydraulic parasitic
       losses over a conventional torque converter when it is slipping.
       CO2 Benefit:  Benefit realized at launch and during transient driving
       Costs:  up to 20% less than a conventional torque converter
   Technology Applicability
                   Ratings of Technology
                                (worst)
                    Effectiveness

                      Availability

                          Market
                      Penetration
                      Long-Term
                    Cost Viability
                         Current
                         Maturity
                  Visualization
   •  Technology applicable to planetary, parallel-axis, AMT and dual clutch
      transmissions
   •  Requires special lubrication system or lubricant to satisfy gearbox lubrication
      requirements and actuation requirements.
   •  Parasitic losses of lubrication system diminish overall benefit over torque
      converter.
   •  Improvement in city driving, little for highway
   "Note: Effectiveness relates to improvement in transmission efficiency
 10
best)
                                                                               Picture: www.cerom.lsu.edu
  CG001019
                   Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                       RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment - Transmissions

Launch Device:  Damp Clutch
                                                                                                    RICARDO
   Technology and Status
       Concept:  Similar concept as a wet clutch but only a limited spray is applied to
       achieve cooling
       Base Functioning: Still requires a lubrication system but is more efficient due
       to controlled environment (less windage and churning)
       CO2 Benefit:  Similar benefits as a dry clutch
       Costs:    ~$25 above wet clutch
   Technology Applicability
   •   Applicable to most automatic transmissions - best of both worlds, efficiency of a
      dry clutch matched with the longevity and higher torque capacity of a wet clutch
      As for the other launch devices, the increase in efficiency is applicable mostly to
      city driving.
   "Note: Effectiveness relates to improvement in transmission efficiency
                     Ratings of Technology
                                (worst)
                    Effectiveness

                      Availability

                          Market
                      Penetration
                      Long-Term
                    Cost Viability
                                                                                     Maturity
                          Visualization
                                                                                      Picture: www.cerom.lsu.edu
  CG001019
                   Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                      RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment - Transmissions

Launch  Device: Dry Clutch Advancements
                                                                                              RICARDO
  Technology and Status
                    Ratings of Technology

Concept: Standard manual clutch require advanced materials to provide heat
dissipation to be used in automatic applications or electric assist (on/off) to
prevent slipping
Base Functioning: Thermal load resulting from engagement prevent dry
clutches from being used in high torque and heavy duty cycle applications but
are more effiecient since they don't require an additional lubrication system and
significatntly reduce parasitic shear fluid losses.
CO2 Benefit: Benefit realized at launch and during transient driving
Costs: Dry Clutch materials +10-20%, Electric motor $1500
1 ^ ^10
(worst)
Effectiveness |
Availability |
Market i —TV-
Penetration ' \r
i_ony- 1 ern

current , /\
Matnritv • \/

(best)
wl
T6T]
•
A
<^ •
V
1

  Technology Applicability
  •  Advancements in material or electric assist could enable this technology to be
     used in larger vehicles and more severe duty cycles
     City driving improvement
   "Note: Effectiveness relates to improvement in transmission efficiency
                        Visualization
                      Ihrust pad
                                                                               drive1
                                                                               plale
                                                                            disengaged (pedal pressed down)
                                          svei
                                                                                            engaged (pedal up)
                                                                                Picture: www.cerom.lsu.edu
 CG001019
                  Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                     RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment - Transmissions
Launch Device:  Multi-Damper Torque  Converter
                                                                                                RICARDO
  Technology and Status
                    Ratings of Technology
       Concept: Dampers in torque converter enable lower lock-up speed
       Base Functioning: The more fuel-intensive period of hydrodynamic power
       transfer is shorter
       CO2 Benefit: Increase in efficiency from reduced slippage and smoother
       shifting
       Costs: Increase
  Technology Applicability
      Multi-damper systems provide earlier much early TC clutch engagement,
      however, drivability and limitied ratio coverage have limited the deployment of this
      technology.
   •   Technology is best suited for deployment in 6 speed tranmssions and required to
      be integrated during transmission design.
      Technology provides improved efficiency for automatic transmissions at an
      increase in cost.


   "Note: Effectiveness  relates to improvement in transmission efficiency
                                           10
                               (worst)       (best)
                   Effectiveness •    (5)

                     Availability

                         Market
                     Penetration
                     Long-Term
                   Cost Viability
                        Current
                        Maturity
                         Visualization
                                                                                     Picture: www.zf.com
  CG001019
                  Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                     RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment - Transmissions

Launch  Device:  Magnetic Clutch
                                                                                                     RICARDO
   Technology and Status
                     Ratings of Technology
       Concept: Using magnetic force to engage the clutch
       Base Functioning: Non contact engagement launch device to prevent frictional
       losses
       CO2 Benefit:  Benefit realized at launch and during transient driving
   •   Costs:    Cost impact unclear due to technology in early stage of development
   Technology Applicability
      Technology is still under early development and it use will be constrained by
      limited torque transfer capabilities, uncertian reliability, and significant engineering
      development to mature.
      Offers opportuinty to remove hydraulic sub-system compoenets and associated
      losses. Technology requires current draw to operate, thus idealy suited for highly
      electrified vehicles.
      Technology best suited to low torque applications with miniminal refinement
      vehicles and technology will need to be integrated in clean sheet transmissions
      with large ratio coverage.

   "Note:  Effectiveness relates to improvement in transmission efficiency
                                (worst)
                    Effectiveness

                      Availability

                          Market
                      Penetration
                      Long-Term
                    Cost Viability
                         Current
                         Maturity
                                                                                       Visualization
PART NO.


3
4
, ' !


'
10
CADI .1
/ft IN BRACL SLDASM

CLUTCH MAGNET-SLDPfiT
ELECTRIC RING rim .SLDA5M
on


1
1
                                        SCALE: 1:1

                                          ARDEN ROSENBLATT
                                                                                       Picture: www.uweb.ucsb.edu
  CG001019
                   Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                      RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment - Transmissions

Shifting Clutch Technology
                                                                                                      RICARDO
   Technology and Status
        Concept: Utilizing high thermal capacity technolgoy to reduce plate count and
        lower clutch losses during shifting
        Base Functioning: Reduced number of plates for shifting process and reduced
        hydraulic cooling requirements result in increased overall transmission
        efficiency for similiar drivability.
        CO2 Benefit: Through all driving conditions potentially including idle
        Costs:  similar to AMI cost
   Technology Applicability
       Technology deployment required during transmission design phase and has been
              limited by industry prioritization to drivability over shift efficiency.
       •   Technology will be best suited to smaller vehicle segments due to reduced
        drivability expectations - there will be a struggle to develop this technology for
                               higher torque applications
   "Note: Effectiveness relates to improvement in transmission efficiency
                      Ratings of Technology
                                              10
                                (worst)
(best)
                    Effectiveness

                      Availability

                          Market
                      Penetration
                      Long-Term
                    Cost Viability
                         Current
                         Maturity
                          Visualization
                                                                                        Picture: www.cerom.lsu.edu
  CG001019
                   Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                       RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment - Transmissions

Smart Kinematic Design
                                                                                                    RICARDO
   Technology and Status
       Concept:  Using analysis to design for efficiency by selecting the kinematic
       relationships to optimize the part operational speeds and torques for efficiency
       Base Functioning: Large improvements in efficiency have been noted for
       clean sheet designs for 6-speed and 8-speed transissions
       CO2 Benefit: Increase in efficiency reduces fuel consumption
       Costs: Low cost - analysis part of design phase
   Technology Applicability
        All applications and vehicle classes benefit from this design approach
        Benefits are realized in city and highway driving
    Note: Effectiveness relates to improvement in transmission efficiency
                     Ratings of Technology
                                (worst)
                    Effectiveness

                      Availability

                          Market
                      Penetration
                      Long-Term
                    Cost Viability
                         Current
                        Maturity
                          Visualization
                                                                                       Picture: www.adr3.co.uk
  CG001019
                   Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                      RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment - Transmissions
Dry Sump
                                                                                                     RICARDO
   Technology and Status
       Concept:  Dry sump lubrication systerm keeps the rotating members out of oil
       Base Functioning: Reduces losses due to windage and churning
       CO2 Benefit:  Fuel efficiency increases with transmission efficiency
   •   Costs: Adds  cost (~$50/pc) but as technology matures cost will go down
   Technology Applicability
     •   All applications and vehicle classes benefit from this lubrication design
        Most benefit achieved at higher speeds
    "Note: Effectiveness relates to improvement in transmission efficiency
                     Ratings of Technology
                                             10
                                (worst)
                    Effectiveness  •   <4
                      Availability
                          Market
                      Penetration
                      Long-Term
                    Cost Viability
                         Current
                         Maturity
(best)
                          Visualization
                                                                                      Picture: www.cerom.lsu.edu
  CG001019
                   Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                      RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment - Transmissions
Efficient Components
                                                                                                    RICARDO
   Technology and Status
       Concept: Continous improvement in seals, bearings and clutches all aimed at
       reducing drag in the system
       Base Functioning: A reduction in drag with out a reduction in performance
       increases the efficiency of the transmission
       CO2 Benefit: Fuel efficiency increases with transmission efficiency
       Costs: New materials,  designs are expensive when they hit market (20%)
   Technology Applicability
     •   All applications and vehicle classes benefit from this lubrication design
     •   City and highway driving fuel effieciency improvements
   "Note: Effectiveness relates to improvement in transmission efficiency
                     Ratings of Technology
                                             10
            (worst)        (best)
Effectiveness ^H   <5]
  Availability
      Market
  Penetration
                                •   0
                                                                                  Long-Term •    r-A-
                                                                                Cost Viability
                                                                                     Current
                                                                                     Maturity
                          Visualization
                                                                                     Picture: www.cerom.lsu.edu
  CG001019
                   Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                      RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment - Transmissions
Super Finishing
                                                                                                      RICARDO
   Technology and Status
        Concept: Chemically treating internal gearbox parts for improved surface finish
        Base Functioning: Improved surface finish reduces drag which increases
        efficiency
        CO2 Benefit: Fuel efficiency increases with transmission efficiency
   •    Costs:  Currently ~$0.50/part
   Technology Applicability
     •  All applications and vehicle classes benefit from this lubrication design
     •  City and highway driving fuel effieciency improvements
   "Note: Effectiveness relates to improvement in transmission efficiency
                      Ratings of Technology
                                              10
                                (worst)       (best)
                    Effectiveness •    <5)

                       Availability

                          Market
                      Penetration
                       Long-Term
                    Cost Viability
                         Current
                         Maturity
                          Visualization
                                                                                                    Ra: 0.025 (jm

                                                                                                    Rz: O.I7 urn
                                                                                      Picture: www.geartechnology.com
  CG001019
                   Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                       RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment - Transmissions
Lubrication
                                                                                                RICARDO
  Technology and Status
  Technology Applicability
    •  All applications and vehicle classes benefit from improved lubrications
    •  City and highway driving fuel effieciency improvements
                    Ratings of Technology

Concept: Development in the area of lubrication properties is ongoing
Base Functioning: New developments in reducing oil viscosity while
maintaining temperature requirements will have a positive effect on
transmission efficiency
CO2 Benefit: Benefit across all vehicle classes and operating conditions
Costs: TBD
1 ^ ^10
(worst)
Effectiveness |
/*.
Availability | | /s)
^S~
Market i
Penetration '
i_ony- 1 err /^>
Cost Viability '
Current i
Maturity *
(best)
\5/
^|
Ts>~
	 •
Ys)~
   "Note: Effectiveness relates to improvement in transmission efficiency
  CG001019
                  Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                     RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment - Transmissions
Transmission Technology Applicability
                                                                                 RICARDO
Launch Technology
o
«— H
o

D
O
cT

D
03
T3
O
«— 1-
O

|J
o|
i-i
< ^
(D ~"
(D
Magnetic Clutc
31

Shifting Clutcl
Technology

Smart Kinemat
Desigh
o
C/)
D
1
T3

Efficient
Components

c/>
T3
CD
Tl
w'
^-
CQ
Improved
Lubricants

Base
Transmission
System
Automatic with Torque Converter
Automatic Manual Transmission
Dual Clutch
CVT

X
X
X

X
X



?

X


X




X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Vehicle
Classification
Small Car (Ford Focus)
Standard Car (Toyota Camry)
Small MPV (Saturn Vue)
Full-sized car (Chrysler 300C)
Large MPV (Dodge Grand Caravan)
Truck (Ford F1 50)
Heavy light-duty truck (Ford F250/F350)

X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X





X
X
X






X
X
X
X
X
?






X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
 CG001019
               Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                  RD.11/342305.1

-------
Outline
                                                                            RICARDO
               Introduction
               Spark ignited engine technologies
               Diesel engine technologies
               Hybrid vehicle technologies
               Transmission technologies
              Vehicle technologies
               Conclusions
 CG001019
              Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                 RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment - Vehicle

Vehicle Summary (1 of 3)
                                                                                          RICARDO
         Mass Reduction: Material Substitution
     For a given set of performance targets, a heavy
     vehicle will require more power, thus consume
     more energy. Reductions in weight can occur
     through material substitution (e.g., steel to
     aluminum).
               Aerodynamics: Passive

     Vehicle Aerodynamics; have a greater influence
     on drive-cycles with a higher average speed.
     Dependant compromises chosen, significant
     opportunity is available in shape development
     (passive aero).
  Mass Reduction: Component Optimization
Dependant on the compromises (e.g., for
manufacturing flexibility, passenger volume etc),
reductions in weight can also occur through
component optimization.
           Aerodynamics: Active
Gains from active aero through controlled cooling
apertures, vehicle ride height control etc are also
possible.
  CG001019
                 Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 September 2011
RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment - Vehicle

Vehicle Summary (2 of 3)
                                                                                           RICARDO
             Thermo-Electric Generators
     Thermo-Electric Generation (TEG); use the heat
     in exhaust gas (waste energy) to generate
     electricity using the Seebeck effect. This can be
     used to drive ancillaries etc, reducing the power
     requirement of the engine.
               Tire Rolling Resistance
     On-going investment in research by the tire
     companies is reducing the energy necessary to
     drive a vehicle forwards.
       HVAC System Load Reduction
Reduced heat loading; by insulating the body of
the vehicle, using alternative technologies for the
glazing and ventilation systems, it is possible to
significantly reduce the energy requirements of
the HVAC systems.
         Intelligent Cooling Systems

Improved engine thermal control using an electric
coolant pump, electric fans and electric 3-way
valve.
  CG001019
                 Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                    RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment - Vehicle

Vehicle Summary (3 of 3)
                                                                                            RICARDO
           Electric Power Assisted Steering

     Replaces FEAD-driven hydraulic steering
     assistance with electric motor.  Increasingly
     prevalent in small and medium passenger cars
     (particularly in Europe).
  CG001019
                 Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                    RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment - Vehicle

Mass Reduction: Substitution
                                                                                                       RICARDO
   Technology and Status
        Concept:  Replacement of current material with HSS/AHSS/AI/Mg/CF* etc.
        Base Functioning:  Fuel economy improvements are through a reduction in the
        rolling resistance losses, i.e., the frictional force is reduced by reducing the
        normal force (weight) of the vehicle. A secondary effect is that a lighter vehicle
        with lower inertia can use a smaller powertrain to accelerate that reduced mass.
        C02 Benefit:   A 10% vehicle mass reduction can deliver a 2.7-4.1 % fuel
        economy improvement with constant engine size, but a 4.7-6.7% improvement
        when the engine is downsized to maintain constant performance.
        Costs:  Dependant on material selected and price  reductions with increasing
        volume supply.

   Technology Applicability

   •  Direct benefit, in growing market use, in all market sectors, and all powertrain
      variations.
      Enables engine down-sizing.
   •  Lowers inertia.
   * HSS=High Strength Steel, AHSS=Advanced High Strength Steel, AI=Aluminum, MG=Magnesium,
      CF=Carbon Fiber
                       Ratings of Technology
                                   1
                                 (worst)
                     Effectiveness

                        Availability

                           Market
                       Penetration
                        Long-Term
                      Cost Viability
                          Current
                          Maturity
                  Visualization
(best)
                                                                                     Aluminum-bodied Jaguar XJ
                   Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                                                                                Picture: www.automotive.com
                       RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment - Vehicle

Mass Reduction: Optimization
                                                                                                       RICARDO
   Technology and Status
                       Ratings of Technology
        Concept:  Optimization of vehicle, vehicle systems and components for weight,
        not style, manufacturing flexibility or passenger volume.  Examples; 30% wheel
        mass-saving, change from body-on-frame to unibody for trucks.
        Base Functioning:   Fuel economy improvements are through a reduction in the
        rolling resistance losses, i.e. the frictional force is reduced by reducing the
        normal force, (weight) of the vehicle. A secondary effect is due to a lighter
        vehicle with lower inertia can use a smaller powertrain to accelerate that
        reduced mass.
        C02 Benefit:   10% mass reduction can improve fuel economy by 6.7%.
        Costs:  Can be a cost REDUCTION; optimizing an aluminum wheel with a
        30% reduction in weight can give a cost SAVING of 25^0%.
   Technology Applicability

      Has the potential to be applied to many areas of a vehicle.  Direct benefit, in
      growing market use, in all market sectors, and all  powertrain variations.
      Enables engine down-sizing.
   •  Lowers inertia.
   •  Additional significant opportunity exists with vehicle size. Passenger vehicles
      have grown SIGNIFICANTLY  in the past 3 decades. The manufacturers say that
      this is due to meet 'market requirements'. If vehicles can be forced to become
      smaller with each successive iteration, rather than bigger, this equates to lighter.
      This has the additional benefit of smaller frontal area, thus (aero details remaining
      constant), the CdA reduces, thus the energy to drive the vehicle through the air is
      reduced.
                                   1
                                 (worst)
> 10
 (best)
                     Effectiveness

                        Availability

                           Market
                       Penetration
                        Long-Term
                      Cost Viability
                          Current
                          Maturity
                  Visualization
                                  Saves 2.5 kg/wheel
                                       (24%)
                  Picture: various sources
  CG001019
                   Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                       RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment - Vehicle

Aerodynamics: Passive
                                                                                                        RICARDO
   Technology and Status
                       Ratings of Technology
        Concept:  Substantial opportunity still exists to lower the coefficient of drag (CD)
        through body shape development, smoothing under-floors, faring-in wheels etc.
        Base Functioning:   A reduction in CD has a direct affect on reduction of the
        force required to enable forward motion. As drag force is dependant on the
        square of vehicle speed, at higher speeds, the fuel economy gain is increased.
        C02 Benefit:   A10% reduction in drag  can give a 2.5% improvement in fuel
        economy.
        Costs:  For most items, such as under-floor shields, wheel farings etc, there is
        some associated on-cost, some items would be low cost or free, such as body
        shape, and some, such as narrower tires, should be a cost reduction.

   Technology Applicability

   •  The faster the vehicle travels, the greater benefit this is. Most effective where
      significant freeway travel is required.  Suits all powertrain variations.
      Dependant on methods chosen, may have some weight penalty, thus city-only
      vehicles may be penalized.
   •  Additional significant opportunity exists with vehicle size. Passenger vehicles
      have grown SIGNIFICANTLY in the past  3 decades. The manufacturers say that
      this is due to meet "market requirements". Safety not withstanding, if vehicles
      can be forced to become smaller with each successive iteration, rather than
      bigger, frontal area, thus drag force, will reduce (for the same CD).
   •  Suggested  possible targets; sedans CD=0.25, SUVs CD=0.30, minivans CD=0.29,
      hatchbacks CD=0.28.
                                   1
                                 (worst)
 10
(best)
                     Effectiveness

                        Availability

                           Market
                       Penetration
                        Long-Term
                      Cost Viability
                          Current
                          Maturity
                  Visualization
                                Aptera
                  Picture: www.green.autoblog.com
  CG001019
                    Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                       RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment - Vehicle
Aerodynamics: Active
                                                                                                         RICARDO
   Technology and Status
                       Ratings of Technology
        Concept:  Opportunity exists to reduce overall vehicle drag through improved
        control of drag-affecting features (cooling apertures, ride-height etc).  Radiator
        grill sizing is designed for maximum thermal rejection; at high ambients / high
        vehicle loads. Most of the time, the majority of vehicles need much less
        cooling.  Thus openings can be significantly reduced,  reducing vehicle drag.
        Base Functioning:  A reduction in CD has a direct affect on reduction of the
        force required to enable forward motion. As drag force is dependant on the
        square of vehicle speed, at higher speeds, the fuel economy gain is increased
        C02 Benefit:   Active cooling aperture control could give an 8-10% vehicle drag
        reduction. A 10% reduction in drag can give a 2.5% improvement in fuel
        economy
        Costs:  Some associated on-cost
   Technology Applicability
      The faster the vehicle is required to travel, the greater benefit this is. Most
      effective where significant freeway travel is required. Suits all powertrain
      variations
      Has some (small) weight penalty, thus city-only vehicles may be penalized;
      however, city-only cars could have altered drive-cycles, as unlikely to need to
      drive up mountains in Death Valley, at GVW
   •  Potential improvements through cooling system aperture control CD 0.008 for
      small and medium cars and 0.03 for large passenger cars and SUVs
      Where available, ride height reduction with increasing speed reduces the effective
      frontal  area, and increases tire coverage
                                   1
                                 (worst)
                      Effectiveness  K2

                        Availability

                           Market
                       Penetration
                        Long-Term
                      Cost Viability
                          Current
                          Maturity
(best)
                   Visualization

                   Picture: www.parkviewbmw.com
  CG001019
                    Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                       RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment - Vehicle
Thermo-Electric Generators
                                                                                                       RICARDO
   Technology and Status
                       Ratings of Technology
        Concept:  Convert temperature differentials directly into electrical energy using
        the Seebeck effect (temperature differential creates current/voltage same as in
        thermocouples). A Thermo-Electric Generator (TEG) consists of hot side heat
        exchanger(s), cold side heat exchanger(s), thermoelectric materials (type and
        size depends on operating temperature) and compression assembly.
        Base Functioning:  40% of energy from fuel is lost as exhaust heat. TEGs take
        advantage of high engine exhaust gas temperatures (waste energy) to generate
        electricity. This can be used to drive accessories or supplement power to an
        electric motor.
        C02 Benefit:   Currently expected to give a 5% fuel economy improvement,
        including the effects of the increased vehicle mass from the system (expected
        to be in range of stop-start, brake regen, FEAD electrification).
        Costs:  Target cost $100/% FE improvement; currently more than this.
   Technology Applicability

   •  Well suited to automotive application. Recovers some waste energy; which is up
      to 40% of the energy from burning fuel.
   •  More effective at higher temperature differences, thus closer to the engine*, and
      at high engine loads.
   •  Has some weight penalty, however the energy developed is expected to more
      than offset this.
   •  Currently under development by BSST, Ford, BMW, Visteon  and others. Material
      development underway. Possible to be on production vehicles around 2015.
    May give some packaging challenges
                                   1
10
                                 (worst)        (best)
                     Effectiveness •    (5)

                        Availability

                           Market
                       Penetration
                        Long-Term
                      Cost Viability
                          Current
                          Maturity
                  Visualization
  CG001019
                   Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                                                                                 Picture: www.customthermoelectric.com
                       RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment - Vehicle

Reduced HVAC System Loading
                                                                                                        RICARDO
   Technology and Status
                                                            Ratings of Technology
        Concept:  Increasingly aerodynamic vehicles typically have larger front and rear
        windows (for the same class of vehicle).  This increases solar loading.
        Improved thermal insulation reduces solar loading in the Summer and heat loss
        in the Winter.
        Base Functioning:  Reduced thermal loading/heat loss reduces the energy
        required by HVAC for cooling/heating.  Insulated panels, GFPs*, double-glazing,
        reflective films, active ventilation, reduced thermal mass are all possible
        methods of realizing this. Optimization then enables smaller A/C components.
        C02 Benefit:   Suggest 8-10%, application dependant. May enable a doubling
        of fuel economy. Recent introduction of SC03 drive cycle will clarify A/C effects.
        Costs:  Undefined, but expected to improve mpg (or range) for marketability.
        Use of SC03 cycle may increase demand for reduced HVAC load.

   Technology Applicability

      Technology based on building applications and applies them to automotive use.
   •  VERY applicable to EVs, hybrids and  high-mileage (mpg) vehicles, which are
      most sensitive to accessory usage as a percentage of the overall vehicle load.
      Increases mileage and range.
   •  The insulation on it's own has some weight penalty, however it allows reduction in
      the sizing of the HVAC components, so potentially weight neutral.
      Reduces degradation of interior panels due to thermal loading / IR attack; may
      allow for cheaper materials (offsets the cost of the insulation application).
                                                                        1
                                                                      (worst)
                                                           Effectiveness

                                                             Availability

                                                                Market
                                                            Penetration
                                                             Long-Term
                                                           Cost Viability
                                                               Current
                                                              **Maturity
                                                       Visualization
                             (best)
   *GFP=Gas Filled Panels
"Commercially available technology, to be optimized in vehicles
Picture: NREL Vehicle Ancillary Load Reduction Project Close-
Out Report
  CG001019
                   Prepared for SRA and EPA
                                     30 Seotember 2011
                                                            RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment - Vehicle
Reduced Tire  Rolling Resistance
                                                                                                           RICARDO
   Technology and Status
                        Ratings of Technology
        Concept:  Tire rolling resistance is driven by tread and carcass deformation and
        relaxation as the tire rotates and moves into contact with the road and away.
        Hysteresis in the tire from this deformation creates heat. Reducing the heat
        generation reduces the rolling resistance.
        Activity is underway to initiate rolling resistance information labeling for tires,
        similar to that already shown for wear, traction and temperature performance.
        Base Functioning:   Fuel economy improvements are through a reduction in the
        rolling resistance losses. Lower rolling resistance reduces the amount of energy
        necessary to drive a vehicle forwards.
        C02 Benefit:   10% rolling resistance reduction can improve fuel economy by
        2-3%. Currently available tires can offer 10-20%  resistance reduction over
        conventional equipment. Further rolling resistance reductions of up to 50% are
        predicted to be available in the next 10-15 years.
        Costs:   10% rolling resistance approximates to $5 increase.

   Technology Applicability

   •  Research into rolling resistance, and reducing compromises with traction and
      wear are on-going.
      Applicable to ALL vehicle types.
   •  On medium-duty trucks, changing from duallys to single-wides offer a further
      benefit of a weight reduction, potentially allowing further improving fuel savings.

   **Based on current technology, is moving forwards, in all vehicle markets. Further gains dependant on
      further research by the tire companies
                                    1
                                  (worst)
> 10
 (best)
                      Effectiveness

                         Availability

                            Market
                        Penetration
                         Long-Term
                      Cost Viability
                           Current
                         **Maturity
                   Visualization
                       Contribution of Tire Component!
                         to Rolling Resistance
                         35 - 50* Treid Compound
  CG001019
                    Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                  Picture: Bridgestone; Tires & Truck Fuel Economy Edition 4
                        RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment - Vehicle
Intelligent  Cooling  Systems
                                                                                                       RICARDO
   Technology and Status
                       Ratings of Technology
        Concept:  Use an electric coolant pump to remove the FEAD load. By
        removing it from FEAD also enables speed control, so rather than running at a
        fixed speed related to engine speed, can be run at a speed suitable to the
        current vehicle operating condition. Combines well with electric cooling fan and
        improved flow routing control.
        Base Functioning:   Standard cooling systems are sized to provide cooling at
        maximum load and ambient conditions. For majority of life of most vehicles, this
        is not required.  No FEAD load, more efficient operating point control. Enables
        quicker warm up from cold. Reduces engine friction by enabling optimum
        engine temperature operation, rather than over-cooling (on passive systems).
        Further gains possible by controlled high temperature running, subject to
        suitable NOx after-treatment systems being fitted (when necessary).
        C02 Benefit:   3% fuel economy benefit on FTP cycle (assumes gain from
        electric fan etc already taken).
        Costs:  Higher cost (possibly 5-6 times). Provides packaging flexibility as no
        longer needs to be engine mounted.

   Technology Applicability

      Applicable to all vehicle types using 1C engines
      Enables improved soak-condition control using the engine pump
                                   1
                                 (worst)
                     Effectiveness

                        Availability

                           Market
                       Penetration
                        Long-Term
                      Cost Viability
                          Current
                          Maturity
                  Visualization
(best)
                                        engine speed i


                                     pump speed nmax
                                                                                                    pump speed n^, „
                                                                                Picture: Pierburg Pump Technology 2008
  CG001019
                   Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                       RD.11/342305.1

-------
Technology Assessment - Vehicle

Electric  Power Assisted  Steering  (EPAS)
                                                                                                      RICARDO
   Technology and Status
                                                                                 Ratings of Technology
       Concept:  Uses either rack or column-drive electric motors to assist driver
       effort.  Replaces engine-driven pump, hoses, reservoir, fluid and hydraulic rack.
       Base Functioning:  Removes load on FEAD for a system which isn't used for
       much of the time (unless cornering or at slow speed).
       C02 Benefit:   On typical usage cycle,  expect 2-3% improvement
       Costs:   Reduced warranty, reduced servicing. Cost competitive with  hydraulic
       systems. Enables integration with safety systems such as lane departure
       warning, stability control (using "anti-skid" feedback) etc.
Technology Applicability

•  Currently not available for truck weight-class vehicles. Ongoing developments in
   this field are making this more likely for all vehicles in the 2020-2025 time-frame
•  Required for vehicles with any EV functionality, to allow them to be steered in all
   situations
                                                                                Effectiveness

                                                                                  Availability

                                                                                     Market
                                                                                  Penetration
                                                                                  Long-Term
                                                                                    Viability
                                                                                    Current
                                                                                    Maturity
                                                                               Visualization
                                                                               Picture: www.trwauto.com
  CG001019
                   Prepared for SRA and EPA
                                                           30 Seotember 2011
                                                                                 RD.11/342305.1

-------
Vehicle Technology Applicability
                                                                                RICARDO






















c
.g
13
.0
it
in
ro
O
Q)
.O
JZ
•S


Small Car (Ford Focus)
Standard Car (Toyota Camry)
Small MPV (Saturn Vue)


Full-sized Car (Chrysler 300C)


Large MPV (Dodge Grand Caravan)
Truck (Ford F1 50)
Heavy light-duty truck (Ford F250/F350)


g

3
:t
"5
.Q
3
V)

Is
<5
•B
s
c"
.g
"5
3
•o
O
in
in
re
5
X
X
X


X


X
X
X
o
is
N
E

"5.
O

"c
o
c
o
Q.
E
o
o
c"
.g
"5
3
•o
O
in
in
us
5
X
X
X


X


X
X
X











9)
'in
n

in"
o
'E
us
c
•a
s.
9)

X
X
X


X


X
X
X












c
X
X
X


X


X
X
X





O)
c
'k.
^
w

"5
'in
in
^
o
|
Q.
Q
1
LLI
X
X
X


X


X
X
X
 CG001019
               Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                  RD.11/342305.1

-------
Outline
                                                                            RICARDO
               Introduction
               Spark ignited engine technologies
               Diesel engine technologies
               Hybrid vehicle technologies
               Transmission technologies
               Vehicle technologies
               Conclusions
 CG001019
              Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
                 RD.11/342305.1

-------
Conclusions
                                                                     RICARDO
    A substantial list of technologies that could offer some benefit to GHG emissions
    in the 2020-2025 timeframe was developed

    These technologies were assessed by the Ricardo team
      These assessments were reviewed with EPA
      Advisory Committee provided input to assessments

    Based on EPA feedback, the large list of potential technologies was reduced to
    the set considered further in the study, "Computer Simulation of Light Duty
    Vehicle Technologies for Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction in the 2020-
    2025 Timeframe"
      These are described further in the main program report
      (Ricardo reference RD. 10/157405.8)
 CG001019
             Prepared for SRA and EPA
30 Seotember 2011
               RD.11/342305.1

-------