United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
Utfice of the Administrator
Science Advisory Board
Washington DC 20460
SAB-EC-88-040C
September 1988
Final Report
Appendix C:
Strategies for Ecological
Effects Research
Report of the Subcommittee
on Ecological Effects
Research  Strategies Committee

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                            NOTICE
     This report has ber»a written as a part of the activities
of the Science Advisory Board, a public advisory group providing
extramural scientific information and advice to the Administrator
and other officials of the Environmental Protection Agency.
The Board is structured to provide a balanced, expert assessment
of scientific matters related to problems facing th^ Agency.
This report has not been reviewed for approval by the Agency;
hence, the contents of this report do not necessarily
represent the views and policies of the Environmental Protection
Agency or of other Federal agencies.  Any mention of trade
names or commercial products do not constitute endorsement or
recommendation for use.

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                 U.S.  Environmental Protection Agency
                        Science Advisory Board
                  Research Strategies Committee


Chairman
Dr. Stanley Auerbach,  Environmental Sciences Division,  Oak Ridge
          National Laboratory,  Oak Ridge,  Tennessee  37831

Members
Dr. Philippe Bourdeau, Director, Environment and Non-Nuclear'Energy
          Research, Directorate General for Sciance,  Research  and
          Development of the Commission of the European Communities-,
          200 Rue de la Loi, 1049 Brussels, Belgium

Dr. Dan Goodman, Montana State University, Department of Biology,
          Louis Hall,  Bozeman,  Montana  59717

Dr. Rolf Hartung, Professor of Environmental Toxicology, School of
          Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan
          48109

Dr. Allan Hirsch, Vice President, Health and Environmental Review
          Division, Dynamac Corporation, 11140, Rockville Pike,
          Rockville, Maryland  20852

Dr. Robert Huggett, Professor of Marine Science, Virginia Institute of
          Marine Science, College of William and Mary, Gloucester
          Point, Virginia  23062

Dr. Harold Mooney, Professor of Ecology, Department of Biological
          Sciences, Stanford University, Stanford, California
          94305

Dr. John Neuhold,  Department of Wildlife Sciences, College  of  Natural
          Resources, Utah State University,  Logan, Utah   84322

Dr. Scott W. Nixon, Professor  of Oceanography,  University of Rhode
          Island,  Narragansett, Rhode  Island  02882-1197

Dr. Paul G. Risser, Vice  President  for Research,  University of New
          Mexico,  Albuquerque,  New  Mexico   87131

Dr. William K.  Smith,  Professor of  Forest  Biology,  School of  Forestry
          and  Environmental  Studies,  Yale  University,  370 Prospect
          Street,  New  Haven,  Connecticut   06311

Dr. Frieda Taub,  Professor,  School  of Fisheries,  University of
          Washington,  Fisheries Center WH-10,  Seattle, Washington
          98195

Dr. Richard G.  Wiegert,  Professor .of Zoology,  Department of Zoology,
          University  of Georgia,  Athens,  Georgia  30602

                                ii

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Tnvi-feed EPA_ Part: icipants

D*-.  Michael *• Slirr.ak, Deputy Director, Office  cf  Environmental
          ~rcriS5-=3 2 r. z E f I £ c ~ 3 , Ci z ~~— c t  ?- s s e a r c r.  i"~. d  Zeve'c'CT. e —
          EPA (T3755C) ,  401 .M Street,  5.W., Washingtcn,  D.C.   2046G

Dr.  David G.  Davis, Director, Office  of Wetlands  Protections,
          Office of Water, EPA,  401  M Street,  S.W.,  Washington,
          D.C.  20460


Science .Advisory Board Staff
Ms.  Janis C.  Kurtz, Environmental  Scientist and Executive Secretary,
          EPA, Science Advisory Board,  (A101-F),  401 M Street,
          S.W., Washington, D.C.   20460

Mrs. Lutithia V. Barbee, Staff  Secretary,  EPA,  Science Advisory Board,
           (A101-F), 401 M Street,  S.W., Washington,  D.C.  20460

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                   **** Table of Contents ****


1.0  EXECUTIVE ZV!2'--.?.V                                       2±~^  ''-

     1.1  The Role cf Ecological Effects Research at EPA           1
     1.2  Status of Ecological Effects Research                    1
     1.3  Needs and Opportunities for Strategic Ecological         1
                 Effects Research
          1.3.1  Assessing risk to ecological systems              2
          1.3.2  Defining the status of ecological systems         2
          1.3.3  Detecting trends and changes in ecological '•       3
                    systems
          1.3.4  Predicting changes in ecological systems         -3

2.0  INTRODUCTION:  ECOLOGICAL RESEARCH AND EPA'S MISSION          4

     2.1  EPA's Responsibilities in Ecological Assessment and      4
                 Research
     2.2  Relationship of EPA's Ecological Research Program       . 4
                 to those of other Agencies
     2.3  Mission of an Ecological Research Program for EPA        5
          2.3.1  Providing a strong scientific basis for           6
                    ecological considerations in Agency decision^
                    making
          2.3.2  Moving EPA into a leadership position among       7
                    agencies with environmental responsibility
          2.3.3  Developing the organizational and  intellectual    7
                    capabilities that will enable EPA to advance
                    ecological science

3.0  RISK ASSESSMENT AS A UNIFYING GOAL FOR RESEARCH PROGRAM       9

     3.1  What is an Ecological Risk Assessment?            ^      9
          3.1.1  Definition                                        9
          3.1.2  Benefits                                          10
     3.2  Shortcomings with Present Approaches to Ecological       1C
                 Risk Assessment
     3.3  Present Approaches to Environmental Risk  Assessment      11
     3,4  Information Needs  for Ecological Risk  Assessment        12
          3.4.1  The endpoint problem                              12
          3.4.2  Ecological  dose-response  relationships            12
     3.5  Recommendations  for Specific  Approaches                  13

4.0  MAJOR RESEARCH AREAS  FOR ADDRESSING THE  INFORMATION NEEDS    14

     4.1  Ecosystem Classification  and  Inventory                  14
          4.1.1   Ecosystem components  and mapping                 14
          4.1.2   Inventory design                                  15
          4.1.3   Recommendations                                   15
                                IV

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     4.2  Ecosystem Monitoring             '                       15
          4.2.1  Historical deficiencies                          16
          4.2.2'  Ecological status assessment                     ]_7
          4.2.3  Conclusions and recommendations                  -3

     4.3  Predicting Ecosystem Change                             13
          4.3.1  Limitations in predictive ability                18
          4.3.2  Considerations needed for .ecosystem effects      19
                    predictions
          4.3.3  Recommendations for advancing predictive         21
                    capability

5.0  INSTITUTIONAL CONSIDERATIONS                                 23

     5.1  Organizational Issues                                   23
          5.1.1  Research committees                              24
          5.1.2  Office of monitoring                             24
         _5.1.3  Staffing                                         25
     5.2 'Extramural vs. Intramural Research                      25
     5.3  Professional Development                                26
     5.4  Facilities and Equipment                               • 26
     5.5  Resources                                               27

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1.0  EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

1.i   The Role of Ecological Effects Research at EPA

     EPA was created in 1970 specifically as the regulatory
agency responsible for protecting the environment.   The 1970
reorganization creating EPA transferred responsibilities for
conducting research on ecosystems from the Council  on
Environmental Quality (CEQ) to EPA.   In this capacity EPA has
both executive and legislative mandates to conduct  ecological
research upon which other responsibilities related  to its mission
depend.  Congress has enacted 15 statutes, 11 enforced by EPA,
that are aimed at protecting the environment from anthropogenic
insult, such as those from chemicals, solid waste and other toxic
substances.  Virtually all of the environmental statutes enacted
by Congress require EPA to protect ecological values, ultimately
requiring preparation of ecological risk assessments.  Among the
important components of the environment to be protected are both
biotic and abiotic components ranging from endangered species to
biogeochemical cycling.

1.2  Status of Ecological Effects Research

     Several other Federal agencies conduct or support ecological
research related to their individual missions.  Much of this
ecological research contributes information that is  important to
EPA's mission and responsibilities; however, this research  falls
short of providing a focused and systematic answer to many  of •
EPA's needs.

     EPA's ecological research program has been constrained by
limited resources.  Therefore, the preponderance of  the Agency's
research effort has been  concerned with questions that directly
support immediate decision-making activities.  Short-term
decisions  have dominated  and defined research  needs;  for example,
the development of single-species, toxicological test methods
for implementing the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide  and
Rodenticide Act  (FIFRA).   Efforts of lesser priority have
generated  tools  for predicting  acute toxicity  based  on  chemical
structure,  and methods  to extrapolate  from  acute to  chronic
effects or from  species to species,  especially in aquatic
communities.

1.3~" Needs and Opportunities  for  Strategic  Ecological  Effects
           Research

     Recognition  is  growing in  the  U.S.  and elsewhere that the
scope  of  ecological  research  must be broadened to  accommodate  the
spectrum  of decisions  concerning  environmental quality that must
be made  at present.   A broadened  scope of research  is also needed
to provide for  acceptable environmental  conditions  in the future.
Current,  identifiable limitations of scope  unequivocally
demonstrate that a  full recognition of the  need for ecological
risk  assessment  has  not been  attained.   Also,  the  structure of

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ecological risk assessment has not incorporated current
ecological knowledge and concepts.  In particular, critical areas
of resource management, population theory, and knowledge of the
mechanisms of ecosystem processes need to be incorporated into a
research effort: that is directed towards ecological risk
analysis.

     Broadening the scope of ecological research is necessary to
provide the opportunity for strategic ecological effects
research.  Building on past studies of effects on individual
organisms, effects on appropriate populations of organisms,
interactions in multiple media and effects on communities or
ecosystems, new studies are needed to provide a comprehensive
understanding of environmental processes and the consequences of
human activities. Studies of these ecologically realistic effects
must relate the impacts of pollution to key characteristics of
ecosystem function, such as physical habitat loss or species
diversity. General risk assessment guidelines should emphasize
investigating and assessing effects that are cumulative, long-
term, and of regional or global scale.  Research pathways that
lead toward answers to these questions will provide the
understanding necessary to anticipate and evaluate both the
magnitude and consequence of ecological effects.

     To build appropriate methodologies, a knowledge base, and a
data base for evaluating ecological risks and effects, and to
provide the information required  to meet the overall needs of the
Agency, a research strategy with  the  following  four components is
recommended:

1.3.1  Assessing risk  to ecological systems

     Interrelated  research activities are required to  refine and
improve environmental  risk assessment procedures  including:  a)
identifying appropriate protocols, b) identifying meaningful
endpoints, c) characterizing  and  quantifying exposures,  and d)
analyzing and quantifying uncertainty.  These refinements  should
be applied as terms  in and as  structures  of models, when
determining appropriate assumptions or  conditions of application,
and via the parameters to be  measured to  perform  environmental
risk assessments.

1.3.2  Defining  the  status of  ecological  systems

     Understanding the degree  to  which  the  quality of  the
environment may  decline as a  result of  human activities  or
improve  as a result  of environmental  management and remediation
activities depends upon a valid  and accurate assessment  of
environmental characteristics.   Ecosystem status  measurements  and
analyses  of these  data provide the fundamental  information that
is needed to characterize and understand  the environmental
resource  that EPA  is charged  with protecting.

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1.3.3  Detecting trends and changes in ecological systems

     Monitoring allows detection and quantification of changes in
specific parameters that are judged to be either critical in
themselves or that serve as indicators of changes.  Monitor-ing
is also necessary to assess the effectiveness of environmental
management and mitigation practices, and to provide future
generations with reference statistics.

1.3.4  Predicting changes in ecological systems            •

     Developing new and expanded predictive methods and
assessment techniques requires considerations of complexities,
such as impacts of indirect and long-term effects, responses to
multiple insults, variability between ecosystems, and differences
in spatial and temporal scale.  Developing a predictive
capability will require predictive studies, experiments in
natural ecosystems and the development and validation of models.

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2.0  INTRODUCTION:   ECOLOGICAL RESEARCH AND EPA'S MISSION

2.1  EPA' s respor.sibilit.ies in eco_I_ogi,caJL assessment, and research

     EPA was created in 1970 specifically as the regulatory
agency responsible for protecting the environment.  In this
capacity EPA has both executive and legislative mandates to
conduct ecological research in support of other aspects of its
mission, responsibilities transferred to EPA from CEQ.  Congress
has enacted 15 statutes, 11 enforced by EPA, that are aimed at
protecting the environment from anthropogenic insults such as
those from chemicals, solid waste and other toxic substances.
Many of the environmental statutes enacted by the Congress
explicitly require EPA or other agencies to prepare ecological
risk assessments.  Appendix I identifies these statutes and their
provisions.  Aspects of the environment to be protected include
fish and wildlife resources, food webs serving human consumption,
aesthetic and recreational values, and rare and endangered
species.  EPA's mission also entails maintaining basic biotic and
abiotic life support systems, such as long-term productivity of
aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems and biogeochemical cycling.

     The Agency's past emphasis with respect to anthropogenic
stresses has been on human health.  This emphasis has translated
into a capability to perform human health risk assessments.  This
capability far surpasses the Agency's ability to perform
environmental risk assessments, primarily due to our relative
lack of knowledge of effects other than those on human health.

     The importance of maintaining viable, healthy  ecosystems for
human welfare and health is increasingly recognized by the public
and private sectors.  In a recently completed exploratory review
of environmental problems, EPA identified thirty-one major
environmental problem areas and characterized them  in terms  of
their relative importance.  Twenty-two of these problem  areas
were identified  as important because of  effects mediated by
ecological impacts  [1].  These problem areas involve  16  particular
types of ecological systems; some  involve entire geographic
regions, while others represent cases where the  entire biosphere
is at risk.

2.2   Relationship of EPA's Ecological Research  Program, to those
         of other Agencies

     A number of other  Federal agencies  conduct  or  support
ecological research,  including the Fish  and Wildlife  Service
 (FWS/Department  of the  Interior),  the  Forest Service  (FS/U.S.
Department of Agriculture),  the National Oceanic and  Atmospheric
Administration  (NOAA/Department of Commerce),  the Department of
Defense, the  Department of Energy,  and the  Bureau of  Land
Management. Respective  ecological  research  programs are  related
to the  statutory missions  of  those agencies.   More fundamental
research in ecology  is  supported  principally  by the National
Science Foundation  (NSF).

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     While much of the ecological research conducted by other
agencies contributes information that is important to EPA's
mission, it falls short of providing a focused and systematic
answer to many of EPA's needs.  Since each Agency has a specific
mission, it is not surprising that many direct concerns to EPA
may not be addressed at all by the other agencies.  The result is
that no one agency is collecting, integrating and synthesizing
ecological information in a way that supports EPA's need to
measure the status of ecological systems and to anticipate and
detect potentially unfavorable trends and changes.

     Of course, EPA should keep abreast of related ecological
research programs at sister Federal agencies, and special efforts '
should be made to encourage coordinated research wherever
feasibility and efficiency warrant.  Such coordination will
complement and enhance the impact of the Agency's own strong,
independent effort, which is necessary to meet its specific goals
and obligations.

2. 3  Mission, of. _a_n ecological research program for EPA

     In response to limited resources, EPA has concentrated  its
research effort on immediate and obvious questions that directly
support decision-making.  Of necessity, past  research has
supported decisions needed in the short-term.  For example,
research efforts have  focused on single-species,  rapid toxicity
test methods for regulatory permitting processes.  These efforts
shorten the time and expense  of  testing at the sacrifice of
correctly identifying  the hazards of  slow acting  toxicants or
those that will cause  problems by indirect mechanisms.

     There is  growing  recognition that the scope  of "research must
broaden.  This recognition is prompted, for  example, by  cascading
effects seen in response to  acid deposition,  and  in  far-reaching
effects seen as a  result of  stratospheric ozone depletion.   A
broadened scope must  accommodate the  full spectrum of  decision-
making, in both the near-  and long-term.  The ecological  effects
of  complex mixtures  (as  opposed  to  single chemicals)  are now
being considered,  and  risk assessment methods are being  explored
that can be applied at the population,  community  and ecosystem
levels, as well  as the single organism/species  level.   Regional
and global scale,  as  well  as  long-term  ecological problems are
being given increased  attention,  although little  administrative
or  budgetary support  is  apparent.

     Some ongoing  EPA research  programs do  reflect this  broader
emphasis  and they  include  investigations  into effects  of acid
deposition, protection of  wetlands,  effects  of global  climate
change, and questions  of microbial  ecology/biotechnology.   Even
in  these  forward-looking programs,  there  are identifiable
limitations of scope  which suggest that a full appreciation of
the needs  for  ecological risk assessment  has not been attained.
With the  exception of newer  approaches  described above much of
the research  involves testing for toxic effects on ecological
components, rather than  considering the ecological system as a

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whole.  The focus of research programs generally remains on
effects of individual pollutants on individual organisms,
although some projects take a multimedia, community assessment
approach.  Additionally, focus is typically placed on knowing the
pollutant, rather than on knowing the environment that we seek to
protect.

     The Subcommittee on Ecological Effects envisions three main
goals for EPA's ecological research program,  They are, in order
of priority:                                               .

     a.  Providing a strong scientific basis for ecological
         considerations in Agency decision making.

     b.  Moving EPA into a clear leadership position among
         agencies with environmental responsibility.

     c.  Developing the organizational and intellectual
         capabilities that will enable EPA to advance
         ecological science.

2.3.1  Providing a strong scientific basis for considerations
         in Agency decision-making

     In planning and conducting ecological research, EPA mst
remain continually aware of the need to  integrate research
findings and assessments into the regulatory responsi-bilities
which are manifest as its policy framework.  This framework,
derived  from current statutes and regulations, generally consist
of a set of linked questions, the answers to which  should develop
from ecological considerations.  These key questions include;

     a.  Status

            How extensive  is  ecosystem change, and  how does
          it affect the  human  component of the ecosystem, e.g.
         human values and  activities?

     b.   Causality

            What are the  relationships between environmental
          stresses and the  effects  observed?

      c.   Risk

            What consequences are  posed  to  ecosystems  from
          pollutant  stresses?

      d.   Mitigation

            What ecological improvements can be  brought about
          by various  choices among  options  for mitigating
          environmental  impact and  at what  additional or alternative
          ecosystem  risk?

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     e.   Recovery

            What rate and degree of ecosystem recovery  can  be
         anticipated as pollutant stresses are reduced?

     f.   Prognosis

            What is the probability,  source and magnitude of
         ecological effects anticipated in the future?

     Simple consideration of direct effects (such as single
species toxicity) will not suffice to provide adequate  answers
for these questions.  Therefore, EPA should develop the
capability to address broader ecological questions.  Such
capability will allow EPA to progress towards solutions to the 22
ecological problems that the Agency has identified [1].

     The incorporation of ecological data into the decision-
making and the regulatory process can enhance the Agency's
performance and the safety of the environment by:

     a.   Identifying reasonacle goals and facilitating
         determination of the degree to which environmental goals
         are being met.

     b.   Providing a sound scientific basis for setting
         priorities, ranking environmental problems and
         allocating resources.

     .c.   Optimizing selection of methods  for preventing,
         detecting, solving or mitigating environmental
         problems.

     d.   Expediting the clear communication and integration of
         research results to EPA,  state and local  governments,
         and the public.

2.3.2  Moving  EPA  into a leadership position among agencies
         with  environmental responsibility

     At the moment, no one agency  has undertaken  the task  of
compiling and  making available  the full spectrum  of
environmental  data  or  of  coordinating the plans  for gathering
needed data.   There  is an obvious  need  for centralized
coordination,  and EPA  is  the  logical choice  for  the role,  both  in
terms of having  the  greatest  needs for  this  information and the
breadth and availability  of expertise  in  matters  of environmental
quality.

2.3.3  Developing  the  organizational and  intellectual
         capabilities  that will enable  EPA to advance
         ecological  science

     The answers to many of  the questions that EPA must address
are  likely  to  require  the development  of  new theories  and

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concepts,  as well as simply new data.   To ensure the growth
of that knowledge base, it is necessary for EPA to participate
in the progress of the science of ecology.

     The Federal support of fundamental ecological research is
primarily the province of NSF.  However, NSF's research program
is primarily predicated on the interests of the Nation's
researchers, and there is no guarantee of complete congruence
between the needs of EPA and the priorities of the scientific
community at any particular time.  Thus, to encourage development
of ecological science in the direction it requires, EPA should
allocate a reasonable fraction of its research effort to
fundamental research, particularly in areas where the scientific
community is not adequately addressing the needs of EPA.

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3.0  RISK ASSESSMENT AS A UNIFYING GOAL FOR THE RESEARCH PROGRAM

3.1  What is an ecolcaical risk assessment?

3.1.1  Definition

     An ecological risk assessment is an estimate of the
likelihood severity and extent of ecological effects
associated with an exposure to an anthropogenic agent or a
perturbational change, in which the risk estimate is stated in
probabilistic terms that reflect the degree of certainty.

The steps in ecological risk assessment may include:

     a.  Hazard identification

            Demonstrating the plausibility of a specific
         adverse environmental effect and the mechanism linking
         the effect to a particular human action.

     b.  Determination of the population at risk

            Identifying the extent of the landscape that can
         potentially be affected.

     c.  Source inventory

            Determining the potential  intensity  of  the  activity
         that generates the factor creating a  hazard usually via
         an environmental survey.

     d.  Exposure  assessment

            Measuring  the ambient  intensity of the  causal  factor
         adjusted  for  transport, dispersal  ecological interactions
         and vulnerability patterns  which  modulate  the  effective
         dose.

     e.  Dose-response determination

            Relating  the  magnitude  of  the  effect and  the
         intensity of  the exposure  to  the  causal factor.

     f.  Risk  characterization

            Putting together  all  of  the pieces to obtain an
         estimate  of  the  probability distribution of  a  range
         of outcomes.

     g.  Quantification  of uncertainty

            Documenting  the  uncertainty about the estimate due
         to potential uncertainties in measurement and prediction
         through  the  process.

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3,1.2     Benefits

     Risk assessment is simply a systematic and formal
application cf ail t.he ir.fcrmaticr. that is available for
predicting outcomes under actual or hypothetical conditions.
The outcome is expressed as the probability of some unit of
"effect" and the hypothetical conditions have to do with
alternatives about which decisions can be made.  The objective is
to process information in such a way that the most accurate
prediction possible is provided.  The predictions must  be
suitable for deciding among alternatives, while keeping track of
the degree of uncertainty so that the decision-maker can have
some indication of how firm the prediction is.  The formal
methodology of risk assessment accomplishes this objective in a
comprehensive and logical manner.

     Risk assessments are designed to promote better decisions,
A focused ecological research program can provide for more
certainty in environmental risk assessments, both in terms of
effect and assumptions, thereby offering three major types of
benefits:

     a.  The quality of the advice given in support of decisions
         will improve, so that subsequent environmental
         management and regulations will be improved.

     b.  The potential for making more accurate predictions will
         be enhanced.  Predictions can trigger preventive action,
         reducing the need for costly and after-the-fact
         mitigation, recovery and clean-up programs.

     c.  Risk estimates will be more reflective of  actual risk
       - posed allowing for narrower "margins  of  safety" and
         potentially less restrictive regulation.

     The accumulated procedures used to  assess  risk have a modest
track record in evaluating human health  questions  related to
environmental pollutants, but have been  applied more tentatively
to ecological questions.  Given the need  for  ecological risk
assessment at EPA, concerted emphasis should  be placed  on
vigorous development of ecological risk  assessment  methods.

3 .2  Shortcomings with some .present ar:r?roaches  to ecological  risk
        assessment

     Present ecological risk assessment  practices commonly  fall
short of their potential  in three ways:

     a.  The risk assessment may  fail  to consider all  the
         ramifications  in a  complex causal  network, so that it
         presents an  assessment of  only  some  of the risks.

     b.  The risk assessment may fail  to provide adequate
         estimates  of  uncertainty,  so  the user has little or no
                            10

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         basis for evaluating its results compared to those  of
         any other prediction methodology.

     c.   The knowledge base and data base may be so weak that
         the uncertainty estimate associated  with the risk
         assessment renders the conclusion tentative, unusable
         or indefensible.

      If the measured uncertainty is enormous, that fact is
extremely important.  In such cases the decision-maker (and  the
affected constituency) need to be aware of the magnitude of  the
uncertainty, both to allow for appropriate caution in the
decision and to document the need for improved information.

3.3  Present approaches to environmental risk assessment

     The field of ecological risk assessment  continues to evolve
as the method  is  applied to  a  variety  of environmental problems.
Such applications have served to identify areas of uncertainty
in risk assessment and aid in defining areas for additional
research.

     EPA's Ecological Risk Assessment Program has the primary
goal of formalizing and systematizing scientific knowledge of
ecological risks in order to provide both guidance and models
for decision-makers.  For example, in EPA's Office of Pesticides
and Toxic Substances environmental risk assessments assist
decision-makers in making at least two kinds of decisions:

     a.   Predicting environmental impacts without access to any
         observational data  (the Premanufacturing Notification
         requirement of the Toxic Substances Control Act)

     b.   Extrapolating observed behaviors from single ecosystems
         (at best) to all other ecosystems that conceivably might
         become exposed through, for example, the expanded use of
         pesticides.

     Because of experimental and observational tractability, most
of EPA's ecological risk assessment approaches have  focused  at
the level of single organisms.  These  techniques  have  proven
valuable, especially  for certain species about which much is
known, but  serious  uncertainties exist in our ability  to  assess
broader  ecological  risk, which impact  on the  quality of
decisions.  When  risk assessments are  based  just  on  extrapolation
from acute  or  chronic dose  responses of  individual  organisms,
potentially important indirect effects can be missed.   Current
single-species tests  can  indicate reductions  in  life span,
health,  and reproductive  rate.   However,  in  complex communities,
populations under stress may increase  because of  reduced
competition or prediction.   An example of  such  indirect effects
occurs with algae blooms,  which may occur  after insecticide
treatments  have removed the consumers  that  normally keep the
algae population  at lower  levels  of abundance.
     Overall,  these efforts indicate  a serious  interest in

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 ecological  risk  assessment at EPA, but the full potential of
 ecological  risk  assessment is not being realized, both for lack
 of an  agreed  upon  systematic methodology  for a complete risk
 assessment  and a lack of  fundamental knowledge in the science of
 ecology.

.3.4  Infontiation needs  for ecological risk assessment

 3.4,1   The  endpoint  problem
                   m
     There  are no.  obvious ecological equivalents of  "human cancer
 rate"  or  "reactor-core  meltdown probability" to serve as the
 common currency  for  a quantitative statement of the  magnitude of
 the  outcome where  risk  is of concern.  This common currency  is
 sometimes called the "endpoint11.  For the purpose of
 communication, it  may be  necessary to find an  analog to the
 situation in  human health risk assessment; however,  non-health
 ecological  concerns  are more difficult to reduce to  a simple one-
 dimensional functions.  There are numerous types of  ecological
 effects,  many of which  are not interconvertible or self-evident
 in terms  of environmental quality or human welfare.  These
 include:

     a.  -Effects on  the biosphere as a  life support  system

     b.  Effects on  agricultural  productivity

     c.  Effects on  productivity  of harvested  wild  lands

     d.  Effects on  aesthetics/amenity  functions

     e.  Effects on  endangered  species

      f.  Symbolic  indices of our  care  for the  environment.

     To the extent that these  endpoints  are  genuine  matters of
 concern for some substantial constituency,  they are  all
 legitimate  endpoints.   However,  they  are qualitatively
 diverse,  difficult to compare  or  relate  quantitatively,  and not
 recognized  by a  universal constituency.   To  improve  the  risk
 assessment  process,  meaningful  endpoints that  relate to  causal
 factors must be  found.

 3.4.2   Ecological  .dose-response  relationships

      Dose-response relationships  are  not only  applicable to
 toxicity testing of individuals  but can also be extended to
 the  measurement  of responses at  the population,  community,  and
 ecosystem levels.  Often,  the dose-response information
 is based on the  results of controlled laboratory experiments.
 But  simplified conditions in laboratory tests (and  some modest
 scale  field plot tests) may not adequately mimic behavior of the
 real system.   Discrepancies and inconsistencies arise due to
 effects of  scale,  complexity,  boundary processes,  and missing or
 unrecognized factors.  Further,  the available laboratory data are


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usually quite restricted with respect to the number of species,
life cycle stages, and genetic strains studied, and frequently
ignore effects of multiple stresses, and population, community,
and ecosystem level effects.  For these reasons, it is essential
that dose-response relationships used in risk assessments be
verified in intact systems.

     Unfortunately, much of the available dose-response data
represent those systems that have been considered scientifically
interesting and convenient, so this "sample" cannot be counted on
to represent the real distribution of possibilities.  Thus, we
cannot assume that means or variance in dose/response data from
this "sample" are adequate for extrapolating to a risk assessment
for a system with components other than those covered in the data
base.  Even more limiting, this data base by itself is
insufficient for estimating the uncertainty of the extrapolation,

3.5  Recommendations for specific approaches

     The logical, systematic framework of risk assessment offers
a means for organizing the relevant factual information that is
available which bears on predicting the outcome of  some
contemplated action  (or inaction) with respect to environmental
regulation, policy,  and management.  Risk assessment  offers a
methodology for making these predictions under conditions  of
uncertainty when  available data are incomplete of dubious
quality.  More importantly, risk assessment allows  the
consequences of this uncertainty in the input  data  to be traced
to the resulting  uncertainty in the prediction.  The  sections to
follow describe examples  of the types  of research activities that
must be carried out  to  improve our  information base;  thereby
improving our ability to  perform more  certain  ecological risk
assessments,
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4.0   MAJOR RESEARCH AREAS FOR ADDRESSING THE INFORMATION NEEDS

4.1  Ecosystem classification and inventory

     Inventory and classification measurements provide an
information base for estimating the extent and location of
specifically inventoried resources that are potentially at risk.
These measurements also provide a means for extrapolating risk
factors from small scale to larger scale systems that are
potentially at risk.  Effects on or hazards to resources
supported by these ecological systems can also be evaluated.  Any
indication that environmental change is imminent or has taken
place, must first be addressed by determining whether the change
has actually taken place, or is currently taking place.  The
magnitude of the change and the extent of the landscape that is
affected must be determined.

4.1.1  Ecosystem Components and Mapping

     In order to extrapolate risk functions or effects from small
to large scale, the landscape can be divided into natural units
with coherent ecological processes, rather than political units.
The structure of the ecosystem is currently reflected by
measurements based on species diversity, importance indices, or
selection ratios.  Chemical compartmentalization is also measured
to reflect the state of ecosystems using measurements of standing
biomass or distribution and availability of nutrients. Research
is needed to guide selection of proper divisions.  Some examples
of useful mapping projects are discussed below.

     a.  Eco-Region Concept

          The eco-region concept used by EPA provides an example
     of a useful mapping project and also provides an excellent
     foundation for the studies described above.  The concept  is
     based on the observation that within a region the landscape
     is a mosaic of patches which  form the components of
     pattern.  The  eco-region project shares this concept with
     landscape ecology, a relatively new ecological discipline,
     dedicated to improving our understanding of the development
     and dynamics of patterns in ecological phenomena.   Research
     related to eco-regions and landscape ecology contributes  to
     our capabilities  in  ecological classification -and  inventory.

     b«  LANSAT Mapping

          Another ecological mapping project  is  represented by
     the on-going LANSAT  project.  This  project  produces maps
     that depict rainfall,  temperature  and  geomorphology and are
     subjected to ground  truth measurements  to  control  accuracy.
     LANSAT maps may also show the state of  vegetative sere
     development to reflect succession,  and  depict  biomass
     measurements to reflect  ecosystem  state variables in terms
     of trophic  level  or  vegetation  types.

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4.1.2  Inventory design

     Several specific factors should be considered in designing
the inventories used to establish landscape mapping units.   These
factors include determination of the error rate for
classification of sites, determinations of within-class
heterogeneity, and determination of uncertainty in extrapolation
applications,.including the assignment of site vegetation
potential.

     Data accuracy should be consistent with decision-making
demands for variables that are related to identified issues.
Furthermore, data accuracy in inventory design must be consistent
with the design of future trends-monitoring, which will be
compared to the initial inventory when making assessments.

4.1.3  Recommendations

     In addition to the recommendation for approaches that can   :
provide a firm foundation for extrapolation, studies documenting
or describing the major life support services or values of
various types of ecosystem should be conducted.  The mapping and
inventory projects designed to provide this foundation should
include ecosystem status indicators that can be correlated with
ecosystem function and value.  Experimental studies are also
needed to quantify ecosystem responses to major environmental  and
anthropogenic per-turbations and to test the utility of the
parameters  selected to measure ecosystem status in one or more
systems.

4.2  Ecosystem Monitoring

     Strategic monitoring elements are essential  for determining
changes or  trends in  ecological  systems or  environmental
parameters  influencing  these systems.  These strategic elements
may  be carried out as programs that involve repeated measurements
of selected biological  functions in conjunction with physical  and
chemical variables over time.  Monitoring  information  is  of
critical importance to  hypothesis  formulation, hypothesis
testing, ecological prediction and  ecological  risk  analysis.
Spectral analysis and other  approaches  involving  data  aggregation
and  pattern recognition techniques  are proving useful.   Such
advances 'lead to  a mere complete understanding of ecological  and
environmental phenomena and  cycles.

     The long-term  ecological  research program of EPA  should
include provisions  for both  biological  and chemical  monitoring.
Extended term monitoring  is  needed to track environmental
pollutants  such  as  ozone,  S02,  and NO^ and to  reveal whether
ecological  systems  are improving,  deteriorating  or remaining
stable  over time.
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4.2.1  Historical deficiencies

     As important as monitoring efforts are,  they.have histori-
cally been characterized by numerous limitations and
deficiencies.  The following are some of the most important:

     a.  Monitoring programs frequently lack clear definition and
         long-term justification.

     b.  Monitoring efforts commonly fail to recognize relevant
         temporal and spatial dimensions or scale.

     c.  Data sets from uncorrelated monitoring programs-may
         not be compatible nor comparable. Mathematical
         characteristics, e.g. sensitivity, thresholds,
         correlation, indices, efficiency and uncertainty, all
         influence comparability of monitoring data.  Protocol
         standardization, quality assurance and quality control
         measures must be coordinated in order to achieve
         compatibility.

     d.  Monitoring programs are inherently costly, and main-
         taining continuity of effort in mission, motivation,
         manpower and money is a sizable challenge."  Feasibility,
         utility and scientific validity must be carefully
         evaluated along with expense and manpower requirements
         to ensure a successful strategy.

     e.  Monitoring efforts directed at documenting change  in
         biological systems do not adequately distinguish

         changes induced by natural forces from changes induced
         by anthropogenic forces.

     f.  Much of the environmental monitoring being undertaken
         by state and  federal agencies appears to be designed
         solely or primarily to determine  compliance with
         regulations.

     g.  Existing environmental monitoring programs, such as the
         air compliance monitoring program, are not well  utilized
         in  ecological effects programs.

     h.  There  is no research  effort to  determine  the  most
         appropriate physical  parameters,  chemical  species
         and biological measurements to  monitor,  although
         significant literature  on  this  determination  exists.
         Implementation  of  a  research  program  dedicated to  the
         identification  of  the most  useful and cost-effective
         biological  parameters to monitor is needed.

     Long  term  ecological  monitoring should be an integral
part of  the  EPA's strategy for ecological research and risk
assessment.  There  are a  number  of  unknowns which make optimal
design of  such  monitoring programs  difficult.  However, enough is


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known to.initiate research programs which could be highly
productive, generating observations about system status which
will also serve as the basis for hypotheses and hypothesis
testing.

4.2.2  Ecological status assessment

     EPA is the most logical and appropriate organization to
carry out a regular and systematic assessment of the status of
the American environment. As a first step, the Subcommittee on
Ecological Effects recommends that the Administrator establish a
group specifically charged with and funded to carry out this
important mission. The efforts of this group should include the
following:

     a.  Assessment of existing and historical monitoring
         efforts

     b.  Storage, synthesis, and interpretations of available
         monitoring results

     c.  Identification of important gaps in the present
         acquisition of environmental monitoring data

     d.  Analysis of major environmental perturbations, both
         natural  and experimental, that will assist in the
         design of future monitoring programs  or in the
         interpretation of changes already  observed

     e.  Development of a coordinated system for the collection
         and  interpretation  of  ecological and  environmental
         monitoring data within EPA.

     Numerous monitoring programs  have been in place for  varying
periods  of time  in a variety of Federal,  state, regional  and
local  agencies.   Examples include  the Status and Trends program
and  the  Mussel Watch project in NOAA, the collection of
commercial fisheries landing data  by NMFS,  the breeding bird
count  at the  National  Audubon Society, and  the National Timber
Inventories of the U.S.  Forest Service.   Numerous  research
programs are  associated  with existing monitoring projects;  for
example,  the  NSF Long-Term  Ecological Research (LTER)  sites
forest watershed  research programs (e.g.  Coweera,  NC;  Hubbard
Brook,  NH,  Walker Branch, TN),  estuarine  sites (e.g Narragansett
Bay, Chesapeake  Bay) ana the National Acid  Precipitation
Assessment Program  efforts.

     At present,  there is no systematic  and comprehensive
collection, synthesis  and interpretation  of the results  of these
efforts.   EPA ventured into such  an  effort  in  1980 with
publication of their  "Environmental  Outlook,"  but the  effort was
not  sustained.  While  it may never be practical or possible to
obtain and summarize  all of these  data,  we  presently  lack even
the  general overview that was represented by the  EPA  document and
formerly provided by  the Council  on  Environmental  Quality.


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     It is likely that an important finding from the first effort
will be that there are major gaps in all of the existing
monitoring programs.  Based on a benchmark review,  decisions can
then be made about reducing redundancy in programs  and embarking
on new ones that may be carried out by EPA or other agencies.

4.2.3  Conclusions and recommendations

     Current deficiencies in basic ecological research impede our
abilities to design and implement a comprehensive ecological
monitoring program.  Nevertheless, the correct approach is to
start a monitoring program based on our best available
understanding, while at the same time initiating research
programs which will yield knowledge to be incorporated into new
and modified ecological monitoring designs.  In other words, the
Agency's ecological monitoring program must be designed to evolve
for at least the first decade.

     An ecological monitoring research program, taking advantage
of existing ongoing monitoring programs, such as the National
Surface Water Survey Phase IV, should be funded and implemented.
The program's design should include quality assurance, and
standardization of protocols, as appropriate.  The statistical
design selected should address EPA's research and predictive
needs, as well as  its regulatory requirements.  In addition, EPA
should conduct a regular and systematic assessment of the status
of the American environment, applying this knowledge to determine
the status of representative ecological systems, as well as
reaching such conclusions on regional and  local scales.  Finally,
long term environmental monitoring  should  be an integral part of
the EPA's ecological research strategy.

4.3 Predicting ecosystem change

     Many of the decisions that  EPA must make  involve predicting
and preventing environmental damage,  rather  than cleaning up
existing pollution. These range  from  discrete,  relatively short-
range decisions, such  as establishment  of  water quality criteria
for the protection of  aquatic life, to  long-range,  even global
decisions, such as limiting  chlorofluorocarbon  emissions  in order
to protect stratospheric ozone  depletion.  The  Agency  needs  a
predictive capability  to anticipate and prevent emerging
problems.

4.3.1  Limitations in  predictive ability

     For many  issues  of  concern to  EPA, the  ability to  predict
ecological consequences  is  limited  for  several  reasons.   First,
serious deficiencies  exist  in  our understanding of the  ecological
effects of environmental perturbations. A CEQ  Report  on Long-Term
Environmental Research and  Development  stated,  "Our capacity to
estimate ecological and  environmental risks  is not sufficient to
ensure against either  costly,  and possibly irreversible,  damage
to essential  biogeochemical  cycles  or preventable  extinctions of
endangered species and ecosystems"  [2].


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     Second, many ecological problems are multi-faceted and
interactive. Various stresses may be operating on a system
simultaneously. These include both man-induced stress and extreme
natural events, such as drought cycles, floods and other
variations in climate. The interactive, cumulative and long-term .
influences of both natural and human influences on ecosystems
means that their conditions often cannot be assessed in pollutant
specific or project specific terms.

     Third, experimental and observational approaches to develop
predictive power need to be emphasized.  EPA's research has
focused on individual, short-range problems, rather than on the
sustained and rigorous combination of approaches to ecological
research that is necessary for the development of explanatory
theory and fact to support predictive capabilities.  The ability
to predict environmental changes depends on the predictive power
of the underlying science; and by strengthening this foundation,
EPA can make significant advances in predictive capability while
still carrying out its statutory responsibilities.

4.3.2  Considerations needed for ecosystem effects predictions

     Developing the necessary next-generation of predictive
methods and assessment techniques requires explicit incorporation
of some important scientific considerations, including the
effects of scale, both spatial and temporal, ecological
interactions and resultant indirect effects, responses to
multiple stresses, long-term effects and ecosystem variability.
These considerations  are discussed below.

     a.  Effects of scale, spatial and temporal

           Ecological  problems occur on various spatial scales:
     global  (e.g., climate modification),  regional  (e.g.,  estuarine
     degradation), and local  (e.g., site-specific  fish kills.
     Scale is  extremely  important.  For  example,  small scale
     elimination of species  allows rapid replacement  by
     immigration while large  scale elimination does not.
     Extrapolation of results  from one  scale  to  another  is
     difficult and must  be  done  with  caution.

           In addition to spatial scale,  consideration must also
     be given  to temporal  scale.   Ecological  systems  may undergo
     natural change on time  scales  of hours to  centuries.
     Ecosystems founded  on  primary production by plankton, such
     as open ocean  systems,  experience hourly diurnal
     fluctuations  in  dissolved oxygen.   In contrast,  forest
     ecosystems undergo  community changes  that  occur over decades
     or centuries.   Basic aspects of  biological  systems  that are
     responsible  for  natural cycling  and variability must be
     understood in  order to clarify  and predict the effects of
     perturbants.
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b,  Ecological interactions and indirect effects

     Interacting communities of organisms have recovery
capabilities and redundancies that individual organisms
lack.  Some populations may have extensive compensatory
capabilities in one circumstance,  but be driven to
extinction in another.   In ecosystems, actual effects of
chemical exposure may be different from predictions that are
based on individual organism responses.  Exposure may be
increased by bioconcentration processes or decreased by
changes in bioavailability.  Exposure to pollutants may
cause a population to proliferate as a result of the
elimination of its competitor or predator population, or as
a result of complex interactions.

     Thus a direct effect on one population  (the
predator/competitor) causes an indirect effect on another
population.  Such interactions points to the need for study
of effects in complex ecosystems;  that is, a study of the
characteristics and behavior of the receiving environment,
as opposed to the behavior of pollutants themselves.

c.  Responses to multiple stresses

     Episodic events, such as storms, droughts, and  floods
are naturally occurring events that cause variable responses
in ecosystems.  Pollutants also cause variations  in  response
due to their chemical characteristics, source and route of
exposure  (e.g. point or-non-point source).   Physiologic
stresses such as pH, UV or temperature also  induce ecosystem
responses.  Traditionally, these stresses have been  studied
in isolation, to determine the mechanism  of  toxicity or
physiological effect.  However, ecosystems often  experience
multiple  forms of  stress,  cumulating  impacts over time,
which cannot be elucidated by  isolated or specific
approaches..  Understanding the effects of multiple  stresses
requires  a more holistic  approach in  research design and
data analysis.

d.   Long-term effects

     Long-term  impacts may occur over time and  over
regions  far  removed from  their  source.   Such responses
may  vary  seasonally and  from year-to-year, as well  as by
random  a  processes;  therefore,  they must  be  examined over
long time  frames to understand  the  significance  of  trends.
Ecosystem level  effects,  such  as  chronic  or  cumulative
degradation  in  river basins  and estuaries, and  impacts of
intensive  agricultural  development  may only  be  revealed by
commitments  to  long-term  investigation.

e.   Ecosystem variability

     Despite their similarities,  not  all  ecosystems respond in
a similar manner to perturbation.   Many ecosystems are similar
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     in overall structure,  but differ considerably in species
     composition.   Therefore,  it is necessary to evaluate the
     effects of stress on several ecosystems.  Ecologists need to
     investigate degrees of appropriateness for extrapolation
     among different ecological communities.   Predictions are
     best if extrapolations are between similar systems and
     explicit knowledge of the differences between ecosystems
     will enhance extrapolation between ecosystems of different
     types.

4.3.3  Recommendations for advancing predictive capability

     EPA's ecological research strategy must contain a minimum of
three elements which, taken together, comprise a total approach
to developing a predictive capability.  Research projects
themselves may deal with individual organisms, populations or
subcomponents of the ecosystem; however, the strategic elements
of the recommended research are focused on ecosystem-level
questions.  These three strategic elements are predictive
studies, field experiments, and models.

     The most fundamental element of the ecological research
strategy involves predictive studies.  Operational-level
hypothesis testing with short-term experiments provide the
advantages of maintaining control over experimental conditions,
yet allowing study of system-level effects.  Studies of processes
such as transport, persistence, and bioaccumulation/bioconcentra-.
tion yield basic data on effects of chemicals, mixtures or other
perturbations at the ecosystem level.  Microcosm research, as an
example of such studies, is still in  its early stages, yet offers
great potential for  advancing our understanding of system level
effects while providing the basic inputs needed for predictive
capability.

     A  second strategic element  consists of  longer-term
experiments and observations  of  large-scale,  natural ecosystems.
In such systems, conditions are  not  controllable but instead
reflect reality.   Field studies  serve to validate  and  expand on
the conclusions and  principles  determined  by short-term,
simplistic experiments.  EPA  has some experience with  this scope
of research through  whole-lake  and watershed experiments  designed
to investigate  delayed  and direct  responses  tc  acid  deposition.
Opportunity  for this type  of  research is provided  via  the Long-
Term Ecological Research  (LTER)  Program of the  National  Science
Foundation which provides  the vehicle for  collaborative
investigation  on ecosystem mechanisms and  responses  for  a number
of key  ecosystems.

     The  last  element of  the  recommended  strategy  is a modeling
component.   Fundamentally, models  are used in ecosystem  research
in two  ways.

     a.   Models provide a  formal means for hypothesis
     development  and testing  along  with  a  means for  organizing
     and  understanding  the resultant observations  and data.


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     b.  Models can be used to  extrapolate  observations and the
     results of experiments to.  new  or  different  situations.
                                           •
This combination of capabilities  make  models  powerful  instruments
for  predicting  environmental  impacts.   They  may  range  from
relatively simple, informal constructs that use prior experience
to  forecast  change,  to models  that  are complex, mathematically
sophisticated,  and  capable of  integrating  and  quantifying the
facets that  characterize  environmental  problems.   They  may be
experiential,  drawing  on  system   measurements?  empirical,
extrapolating from  statistical relationships; -or qualitative
process models, which incorporate some causal  relationships.

     A key part of mathematical model  development  is field
verification and validation.  Before  such predictive tools can be
applied to anticipating future  ecosystem effects or  ecological
risk assessment, careful correlation  of model predictions to
actual field conditions must be made.   The  validation  steps
enable appropriate application  of developed models to  decision-
making and priority setting problems  that the Agency faces
routinely.   Ultimately,  integration  between ecological models,
economic cost/benefit models, and resource  management  will be
needed to facilitate policy or  regulatory actions  that are most
effective in meeting societal needs.
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5.0  INSTITUTIONAL CONSIDERATIONS

5.1  Organizational issues

     As the Agency develops its long range ecological research
program, it should formulate plans to transfer the knowledge
gained to users outside the Agency.  These plans should include
mechanisms that allow EPA to take advantage of the data and
knowledge that has been gathered outside of the Agency,
incorporating these advances and eliminating duplication.
States, localities, industries and other nations will benefit
from and need to be apprised of research and monitoring findings -
in the Federal government.  This is not only to assist them in
their regulatory functions but also to allow them to evaluate the
conclusions drawn relative to their own data and experience.

     Recently an EPA task force explored the need for technology
transfer and evaluated several options to facilitate such
transfers.  They formulated two basic conclusions:

     "EPA, working in partnership with the states, must take
     action to legitimize the importance and integral nature of
     technology transfer and training to its mission.  As the
     Agency continued to evolve and mature, technology transfer
     and training must become core elements in supporting the
     Agency's operations and interactions with states and local
     government, industry and academic...  Further, the task
     force believes that failure to incorporate such an emphasis
     throughout the Agency will undermine the effectiveness of
     the Agency's regulatory and enforcement efforts and related
     activities at the state and local levels"  [3].

     Significant changes will have to take place  if the above
goals are to be met, and the recommendations are  to be
effectively implemented.

     An  enhanced ecological research program would enable EPA  to
achieve  the following goals  [4].

     a.   Give greater consideration to ecological impacts  in the
          Agency's  ongoing  regulatory programs  —  e.g., bio-
          technology, Superfund,  and natural resources  damage
          assessment.

     b.   Play  a  broader  leadership role  as  the  nation's  principal
          environmental  agency,  by  assessing and responding  to
          emerging  large-scale  or long-term  environmental problems
          not  directly  covered  by existing EPA regulatory
          activities  —  e.g.,  global  warming and decreased
          biodiversity.

      c.   Contribute  to  the advances  in the  state-of-the-science
          of  applied  ecology that will  be necessary to anticipate,
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         detect,  and deal with future environmental  problems,
         particularly those areas  not being addresses by other
         Federal  agencies.

5.1.1  Research committees

     The current Research Committee vehicle for determining
research priorities can address the first of the goals outlined
above.  However,  it would be much  less effective addressing the
second and third goals.  The immediate regulatory pressures.
confronting the EPA program offices will inevitably dictate short
term research to supply information needs.  Therefore, the
Administrator of EPA should designate a given level of funding or
percentage of EPA1 research budget as available for long-term
research, outside the purview of the Research Committees.  At
this stage, we are not in a position to recommend what the
specific level or percentage should be.

     At the same time, the relationship between Research
Committee short-term research and independently directed long-
term research must be sensitively handled by ORD leadership.
First, there are important interrelationships and mutual
contributions between the two types of effort.  In that sense,
the overall research program, although prioritized through two
separate vehicles, should be managed as somewhat of a "seamless
whole".  Second, to assure continued Agency support,  it will be
important for ORD to constantly emphasize and demonstrate that
the long-term effort is relevant to the Agency's larger goals.
It is the special responsibility of research management to assure
that the long-term research is not only of top scientific
quality, but also focused and relevant to the Agency's overall
mission.

5.1.2  Office of Monitoring

     The Subcommittee  on Ecological Effects recommends that the
EPA establish an Office of Monitoring  (or redirect the existing
Office of Monitoring within ORD) to solve identified  problems  and
implement the recommendations herein.  This Office would:

     a.  Review existing monitoring programs and the  information
         generated by  such programs for relevance to  EPA's
         objectives.

     b.  Identify important gaps in our present acquisition of
         environmental and ecological  monitoring data.

     c.  Design and  implement  an EPA monitoring system,  which
         considers quality assurance,  standardization of
         protocols as  appropriate,  and relevant statistical
         design and  analysis.  Target  this  monitoring system
         specifically  to  addressing  EPA's research,  prediction,
         environmental and ecosystem  assessment requirements.
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5.1.3  Staffing

     It will be necessary to make significant changes in staffing
to implement the recommended program.   Specifically,  there is a
need to add additional applied ecologists to EPA's staff at both
Headquarters and at the laboratories to complement the current
cadre of environmental scientists.  There are a number of
outstanding ecologists on EPA's staff; however, they are
relatively few in number and unevenly distributed among the
various research locations.  It will be difficult to incorporate
some of the recommended research concepts and rationale
recommended in this report without expanding the number of
researchers and broadening the disciplinary mix.

     Hiring limitations of civil service personnel could make it
difficult to implement this recommendation.  However, there are a
number of vehicles already utilized by EPA which can be given
greater emphasis to achieve this goal.  These include the
Visiting Scientists and Engineers Program, Interagency Personnel
Agreements  (TPA), and fellowships through the American
Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS).

     Particular emphasis should be placed on vehicles for
rotating a small cadre of nationally known ecologists into EPA's
Office of Environmental Processes and Effects Research  (OEPER).
These ecologists could be given significant assignments to
incorporate a range of ecological approaches — e.g. landscape
ecology, adaptive environmental assessment — into the Agency's
research thinking.  Recent organiza-tional changes in OEPER,
specifically incorporation of the Agency's Acid Deposition
research responsibilities, should facilitate this broadening of
staff capability.

5.2  Extramural vs. intramural research

     As in  the  case of staffing,  focused  use of extramural
resources can broaden scientific  participation  in the research
program.  The current Acid Deposition  research  program
demonstrates that ORD can bring  such  resources  to bear  in a
focused way to  address Agency needs.

     We also endorse  continued use  of  the Center  of  Excellence
concept.  While not specifically evaluating  the programs  of  the
two  existing ecologically-oriented  Centers (Cornell  and
University  of Rhode Island), we  would  point  out that these Centers
have provided EPA with  continuing access  to  necessary academic
input.  We  would recommend continued  management attention to the
most effective  use  of those  Centers and particularly to
continuity  and  increased levels  of  funding.

     EPA  should play  a  stronger  role  in support and participation
in  such activities  as the Man-in-the-Biosphere Program, and
related programs within the  appropriate professional societies.
With relatively modest  efforts,  sometimes requiring only
effective liaison or  limited support  of workshops or similar


                            25

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efforts, EPA can benefit from and influence the direction of
these groups.

     In addition, more explicit attention should be given to
liaison and cooperation with related federal programs such as the
National Science Foundation's LTER, the ecological research of
the DOE National Laboratories, and relevant research of such
agencies as the Forest Service and Fish and Wildlife Service.
Major benefits can be achieved through such efforts.

5.3  Professional development
     Mill IK «^B_   ^^^__ inn i   .....  _ _ M..-JIIII*.-                                        f

     Implementing the foregoing strategy for ecological research
will require a high level of professional ecological competence.
Two forces are at work, which are creating a professional
manpower problem within the Agency.  One such force is the high
attrition rate of an already dilute ecological talent pool.  The
age structure of the Agency's professional staff is inexorably
moving  upward.   In excess of 40% of the professional staff will
be eligible  for  full retirement benefits by 1990 and 75% will be
eligible by  2000.

     The second  force is the need to ensure that there are enough
students are in  the academic pipeline to fill the spaces vacated
by the  retiring  professionals, let alone to meet the manpower
needs of an  emerging program.  Together the two forces,  if left
unchallenged, pose a problem that will rapidly reach crisis
proportions.  The obvious way to challenge these forces  is to
counter with the resources necessary to support programs for
professional development.  In the  short run, use can be  made of
existing mechanisms  (IPA, Cooperative Agreements, etc.)  to bring
talent  into  the  Agency  for relatively short  (1-2 years)  rotating
terms.  In the long run, however,  a permanent, continuing supply
of young talent  can only be provided by supporting  training
programs designed to produce MS and Ph.D level scientists not
only  for the Agency, but for  the Nation in general, since any
surplus talent produced will  find  its way  into state, municipal
and industrial programs thus  enhancing the Agency's technology
transfer effectiveness.  A training program similar to the  one
implemented  by the Federal Water Quality Administraton  (FWQA)
and later dropped by EPA is strongly recommended.

5.4   Facilities  and Equipment

      In addition to  its own unique laboratory  and  field
facilities and equipment, ecological research  needs strong
analytical and computing support.   The Agency's Environmental
Research Laboratories  were  constructed twenty  or  more  years  ago
during  an era emphasizing single  species toxicity  and  water
quality testing.  The  equipment  sufficient to  accommodate  that
kind  of activity has  aged into marginal  service  ability  if not
become  outmoded.  Upgrading  existing  facilities  and equipment is
necessary in order to  maintain the integrity  of  existing
laboratory  output.   It is essential if  quality ecological  work is
to be performed.


                            26

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5.5  Resources

     Substantial financial resources are required to fully
implement the recommendations of the Subcommittee.  This will
pose significant difficulty under current budget constraints, yet
several approaches are possible for initiating the proposed
strategy.  First, some of the recommended measures can be
implemented with modest resource increments.  These include
strengthening and broadening ecological staffing, strengthening
support for Research Centers, and increasing liaison and
participation in relevant ecological activities.  While these
efforts will not substantially increase the level of new long-
range research within EPA, they will greatly increase EPA's
awareness of and access to relevant work and scientific input.

     Second, the Agency could decide to redirect a portion of its
research budget from short-term, Research Committee prioritized
research to long-term efforts, rather than seeking entirely new
resources.  Such redirection could have an adverse impact on
Program Office priorities and support for research, but it could
be justified in relation to the Agency's broader goals.

     Finally, It may be possible to redirect some of the Acid
Deposition resources.  This will allow the Agency to begin to
address other closely related issues, such as global warming and
stratopheric ozone deletion.

     Even if all of these steps for initiating the proposed
strategy are taken, successful implementation of, the ecological
research strategy will still require a significant infusion  of
new funds and manpower. Anything less will serve  only to compound
the uncertainties we are trying to reduce.

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References

1.  U.S.EPA.  1987.  Unfinished Business:  A Comparative
      Assessment of Environmental Problems.  Washington, D.C.

2.  Council on Environmental Quality.  1985.  Report on Long-
      Term Environmental Research and Development.  Washington,
      D.C.

3.  U.S.EPA.  1987.  Report of the Administrator's Task Force
      on Technology Transfer and Training.  Washington, D.C.

4.  NAS/NRC.  1977.  Research and Development in the
      Environmental Protection Agency.  Washington, D.C.
                            28

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APPENDIX I
 29

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                           APPENDIX I

  STATUTES REQUIRING AN AUTHORIZING ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT
STATUTE
Clean Air Act (CAA)
SECTION    ACTIVITY FOR WHICH ERA IS
           AUTHORIZED

 154(c)    Studies by the National
           Science Foundation

 154(d)    Studies by the Secretary  '
           of Agriculture

 164(b)    Redesignation of areas as
           Class I, II, or III

 165(e)    Preconstruction requirements
           for major emitting facilities
Clean Water Act  (CWA)
 301(g)    Determinations on requests
           for water quality variances

 301(h)    Determinations on requests for
           modification  of  secondary
           treatment requirements  for
           POTWS

 303(c)    Development of State  water
           quality  standards and
           designated uses  for receiving
           water

 304(a)    Development of Federal  water
           quality  criteria and  guidance

 305(b)    Development of State  water
           inventories

 307(a)    Determinations regarding
           additions to, or revisions  of,
           the  list of priority  pollutan-s

 311(b)    Designation of hazardous
           substances

 316(a)    Establishment of efficient
           limitations  for  thermal
           discharges

 320(b)    Development  of estuary
           protection  program
                            30

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                              403(c)    Development and provision
                                        of ocean discharge criteria

                              404(c)    Determination of the effect
                                        of dredge and fill activites
                                        prior to authorization to
                                        discharge to surface waters
Comprehensive Environmental Response,
Compensation and Liability Act (CERCLA)
                              105(a)(8)(A)

                                        Revision of the National
                                        Contingency Plan

                              105(d)    Petition to conduct a pre-
                                        liminary assessment of the
                                        effects of the release or
                                        threatened release of hazardous
                                        substance

                              105(g)    Addition of facilities to
                                        National Priorities List


                              121(b)  &  (d)
                                        Assessment of alternative
                                        remedial actions  and
                                        degree  of clean up  required

                              311(a)    Research on hazardous  substance

Federal Insecticide,  Fungicide,
and Rodenticide Act  (FIFRA)
                              3(c)(5)   Approval of  registration of
                                        pesticide

                              3(d).(l) (B)
                                        Classification  of pesticides
                                         for general  use

                              3(d)(1)(C)
                                         Classification  of pesticides
                                         for specific use

                               5(d)       Experimental use permit studies

                               20        Research and Monitoring

                               25        Development of Regulations
                            31

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Marine Protection, Research and
Sanctuaries Act (MPRSA)
                              102(a)
                              102(c)


                              104(h)
Safe Drinking Water
Act  (SDWA)
Criteria for reviewing permits
for ocean dumping

Designation of sites and tiroes
for dumping

Establishment of permitting
criteria for low-level
radioactive waste dumping

Establishment of permittirig
criteria for general
radioactive waste dumping
                              202(a)(2) Research on ocean dumping

                              303(b)    Designation of National
                                        Marine Sanctuaries
                              1427(d)   Development of criteria  for
                                        identification of  critical
                                        aquifer protection areas
Toxic Substances  Control
Act '(TSCA)
                               4(a)
                               4(b)
                               5(b)
                               5(h)
Testing to develop data with
respect to environmental and
human health effects  of
substances manufactured, dis-
tributed, processed,  used  or
disposed of

Establishment  of  standards
for  the development  of
test data

Notification and  submission
of test data required for
manufacture of a  new chemical
substance  or the  processing
of a chemical  substance for
a new  use

Evaluation of  application  for
exemption  from notification
requirements  for  test marketing
purposes
                            32

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  6(e)      Authorization  of  manufacture or
           use  PCBs  in  a  not totally
           enclosed  manner

  12(a)     Application  for export of  a
           substance being manufactured
           processed, or  distributed
33

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Summary of Statutory Authority Implicitly Authorizing an
Ecological Risk Assessment
STATUTE
Coastal Zone Management
Act of 1972  (CZMA)
SECTION   ACTIVITY FOR WHICH ERA
          IS AUTHORIZED
303

305
Marine Mammal Protection
Act of 1972  (MMPA)
                              3(a)
Declaration of policy

Management Program Development
Grant
          Moratorium and Exceptions
                               103 (a)  &  (b)
                                         Promulgation  of  regulations
                                         on taking-of  marine  mammals
                               103(b) (3)
National Ocean  Pollution Research
and Development and Monitoring
Planning Act  of 1978  (NPERDA)
                              4(a)
                                         Consideration of the marine
                                         ecosystem and related
                                         environmental concerns
          Preparation  of  comprehensive  5
          year plan  for the  overall  Federa
          effort  regarding ocean pollutior
          research,  development and
          monitoring
                               4(b) (1) (A)
                                         Identification of the national
                                         needs and problems related to
                                         the specific effects of ocean
                                         pollution, including the effect-
                                         on the environmental value of
                                         the ocean and the coastal
                                         resources
                               4(b)(1)(B)
                                         Prioritize, with respect to
                                         value and cost, the national
                                         needs related ocean pollution
                                         which must be met

                                         Submit annual report to Congres.
                                         which estimates environmental
                            34

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Resource Conservation and
Recovery Act (RCRA)
Wild  and Scenic Rivers Act
                              1008(a)
                                        impact of increased importing
                                        of foreign oil, evaluates the
                                        Federal government's ocean
                                        pollution research and monitorir.
                                        capability, and summarizes the
                                        efforts undertaken to coordinate
                                        federal programs related to
                                        such research and monitoring
Development and revision o,f
guidelines for solid waste
management
                              3004(b)

                                %

                              3004(d)  &  (e)
Authorization for placement
of hazardous waste
                                         Authorization for land disposal
                                         of  hazardous waste

                               3004(g)    Land disposal prohibitions of
                                         hazardous waste

                               3004(m)    Development of waste treatment
                                         standards

                               3005(j)    Study and Report to Congress
                                         on  existing.surface impoundment:

                               8001(a)    Research, demonstration, and
                                         training relating to hazardous
                                         waste management

                               8002       Special waste studies
                               Act in general
                            35

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