Climate Ready Estuaries
2011 PROGRESS REPORT
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CLIMATE READY
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Michael Craghan
craghan.michael@epa.gov
Oceans and Coastal Protection Division
EPA Office of Water
(202)566-1946
Jeremy Martinich
martinich.jeremy@epa.gov
Climate Change Division
EPA Office of Air and Radiation
(202)343-9871
Climate Ready Estuaries
www.epa.gov/cre/
National Estuary Program
water.epa.gov/type/oceb/nep/index.cfm
EPA Climate Change
www.epa.gov/climatechange/
EPA Office of Wetlands, Oceans & Watersheds Twitter page
twitter.com/epaowow
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Introduction
2011 Climate Ready Estuaries Projects 4
Climate Change Risk Management,
7
Climate Ready Estuaries and the Adaptation Community 15
Public Education 16
Climate Ready Estuaries Product: Rolling Easements 18
Project Partners 20
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Climate change continues to be a leading challenge to reaching Clean Water Act goals in our country's
estuaries.f New impacts are being observed on U.S. coastlines, and many already pressing problems
(such as sea level rise and wetlands loss) are worsening. Climate Ready Estuaries (CRE) is a partnership
between the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the National Estuary Programs (NEPs) to
address those challenges.
2011 marks the fourth year in which CRE has supported climate change adaptation activities in NEP study
areas. From 2008-2010, CRE sponsored 20 projects with 15 different NEPs. In 2011, CRE supported
another 11 projects, including work with four new NEPs.
CRE Projects by Year
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
Cumulative NEPs With Projects
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
EPAs Climate Ready Estuaries is one of a few federal climate change adaptation programs that work with
external partners to help meet their needs. Consequently, CRE projects with NEPs are among the top
examples of coastal community-based adaptation planning in the United States. CRE has been cited by
many authorities for this achievement, and the program intends to build on this success.
This document highlights the projects that 19 NEPs around the United States have undertaken to
help their watersheds and communities adapt to some of the pressing challenges that are emerging.
The newest projects are featured in the section 2077 CRE Projects (page 4). Projects initiated during
2008-2010 are highlighted in the C//mate Change Risk
Management section of this report (page 7). Risk management
is an approach for addressing the potential impacts and
uncertainty of climate change. CRE projects are illustrative
of steps along the entire risk management spectrum, from
starting to think about impacts to implementing responses, and
collectively serve as an example of how risk management can
be applied.
f White House Council on Environmental Quality. Final Recommendations of
the Interagency Ocean Policy Task Force. July 1 9, 2010.
U.S. Climate Change Science Program. 2008. Preliminary Review of
Adaptation Options for Climate-Sensitive Ecosystems and Resources.
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In addition to the activities that CRE supports with the NEPs, the program produces resources that
support climate change planning. In 2011, CRE published a pamphlet on lessons learned from NEP
partners (page 15); a fact sheet for king tide education campaigns (page 17); and a primer on rolling
easements, which was downloaded 40,000 times in June-September 2011 (page 18). Finally, this
progress report also highlights the program's use of new media to educate the coastal management
community about climate adaptation.
MPLISHMENTS AT A GLANCE
• Partnered with four new NEPs in 2011; CRE has now supported projects with a total
of 19 NEPs.
• Sponsored 11 new projects in 2011; CRE has now supported a total of 31 climate
adaptation projects.
• Joined with EPA's Climate Ready Water Utilities Program on three projects in 2011.
• Published the Rolling Easements primer.
• Kicked off the king tide sea level rise education campaign.
• Used Twitter and webcasts to educate the public about coastal adaptation.
High water flooding in Washington, D. C.
A king tide in Fort De Soto Park, Florida
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CRE projects on coastal adaptation to climate change are examples for use by the entire
coastal management community. In 2011 EPA provided technical assistance and funding for
11 adaptation projects with 10 NEPs. EPA is very pleased to welcome four new NEPs as CRE
partners this year:
• Morro Bay National Estuary Program (California)
• Narragansett Bay National Estuary Program (Rhode Island)
• New York-New Jersey Harbor Estuary Program
• Tillamook Estuaries Partnership (Oregon)
As the NEPs continue to examine how climate change will affect water quality, natural resources,
and uses of their estuaries, CRE projects will contribute to the body of knowledge about
adapting to climate change in coastal watersheds.
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Estuaries
Partnership
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Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Adaptation Analysis
The Casco Bay Estuary Partnership and the Piscataqua Region Estuaries Partnership are
working with the New England Environmental Finance Center to evaluate the vulnerability of
communities in their watersheds to sea level rise and storm surge through the COAST model
(COastal Adaptation to Sea level rise Tool). They will work closely with stakeholder groups to
identify hazards scenarios and appropriate adaptation options for analysis. These projects will
support ongoing climate adaptation planning in the region by examining costs and benefits
of various adaptation measures. NEP involvement will also help to refine COAST for future
application in other locations.
In 2011 EPAs two "Climate Ready" programs began cooperating on climate change adaptation
projects. Climate Ready Water Utilities (CRWU) supports the implementation of plans and
adaptation strategies at drinking water and wastewater utilities.
CRWU's Climate Resilience Evaluation and Assessment Tool (CREAT) is one way that utilities can
evaluate potential impacts of climate change and adaptation options. NEPs, local utilities, and
CRWU are working together to test and improve CREAT. These cooperative efforts help identify
adaptation measures that benefit water utilities and the environment.
The Albemarle-Pamlico National Estuary Program (APNEP) will work with CRWU to provide
technical assistance on climate change impacts to a North Carolina water utility in its study area.
The project team will use CREAT to assess short, medium, and long-term climate risks to the
utility's infrastructure and to the surrounding natural environment. The CREAT output will identify
possible adaptation options. This project will also develop APNEP's expertise in using CREAT
and facilitate further consultations with other utilities in the region.
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Assessment of Climate Change Adaptation Measures for the
Lower Pawtuxet River, Rhode Island
The Pawtuxet River watershed experienced severe flooding impacts from record-breaking
March rains in 2010, and many dams and in-stream structures were at risk of failure. This
problem is anticipated to become more severe, as the intensity of precipitation is projected
to increase in New England due to climate change. The Narragansett Bay Estuary
Program will analyze and report on dams and other in-stream structures in the Pawtuxet
River watershed regarding their vulnerability to climate change and flooding, as well as
possible impacts on watershed restoration efforts.
NARRAGANSETT BAY
EW PROGRAM
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Assessing Opportunities for Climate Change Resilience at
Public Access Sites
Public access sites feature diverse human uses and habitats and are vulnerable to climate
change impacts, especially from rising sea levels and coastal storms. The New York-New
Jersey Harbor Estuary Program will expand a vulnerability assessment protocol piloted
by New Jersey Sea Grant and others to identify public access points that are vulnerable
to climate change impacts. The Harbor Estuary Program will work with municipal planning
departments, engineers, and local boating organizations to refine the vulnerability
assessments and tailor specific strategies for increasing the resilience of each case study site.
A final report will focus on the application of methods in other coastal areas.
NEW YORK NEW JERSEY
HARBOR ESTUARY PROGRAM
The Morro Bay National Estuary Program will work with CRWU and a local water
purveyor group to develop information for a climate risk assessment focusing on drinking
water supplies in the watershed. GREAT and a ground water flow model (SEAWAT) will
be used to gauge climate change risk to surface water and ground water supplies and
assess adaptation options. Results will inform area ground water basin and adaptive
management plans.
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The New York-New Jersey Harbor Estuary Program has been working with CRWU and the
North Hudson (N.J.) Sewerage Authority since early 2011 to evaluate potential impacts of
climate change and examine adaptation options for the sewerage authority. The utility serves the
northern part of Hudson County, New Jersey, and operates about 100 miles of sewer mains and
two wastewater treatment facilities providing both primary and secondary treatment. The system
treats an average of 24.5 million gallons of water per day, and effluent is discharged into the
Hudson River. Sea level rise and flooding are climate change issues of particular concern.
NEW YORK NEW JERSEY
HARBOR ESTUARY PROGRAM
EPAs Climate Ready Water Utilities
water.epa.gov/infrastructure/watersecurity/climate/
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Using Living Shorelines to Protect Tidal Marsh Habitat
as Sea Level Rises
The Partnership for the Delaware Estuary (PDE) is examining best practices for a living shoreline
approach to maintaining ecological quality in its tidal wetlands and watershed. PDE and
partners will conduct on-the-ground assessments for preserving tidal wetlands in light of climate
change, especially sea level rise. They will develop a strategy for implementing living shoreline
demonstration projects that evaluates various tactics, assesses impediments and obstacles
to action, and recommends approaches for local projects. A best-practices manual will be
developed to guide restoration planning in the PDE system and to serve as a model for other
NEPs.
SAKASOTA BAY
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Addressing Sea Level Rise in the Sarasota Bay NEP Region
In an earlier CRE project, the Sarasota Bay Estuary Program (SBEP) developed an online sea level rise viewer
(http://www.sarasotabay.org/slr-web-map/). This work has provided valuable experience and insight into using
creative, practical approaches for introducing basic climate change science and stimulating positive responses.
To build on that project, SBEP and its partners will prepare a guide on tips and early lessons learned from
introducing the Web viewer. The focus of this guide will be on the experiences gained through working with
local governments, businesses, and community leaders, as well as other interested organizations.
Gulf Coast Community Handbook
The Tampa Bay Estuary Program will coordinate a cooperative effort by the Gulf of Mexico NEPs, as well
as regional participants from the National Estuarine Research Reserve System and other coastal restoration
groups, to contribute their knowledge to a "Gulf Coast Community Handbook." The handbook will use
case studies from the Gulf of Mexico area to illustrate on-the-ground approaches and lessons learned
about incorporating climate change resiliency into habitat restoration and protection plans.
Tillamook Eituarle* Partnership
Assessing Climate Change in the Tillamook Estuaries Watershed
The Tillamook Estuaries Partnership will review and summarize studies of climate change in the
region to produce an assessment of likely climate change effects in its watershed. This study will bring
together the current understanding of how climate will change and the associated environmental
impacts. This report will be used for local environmental education and to support a potential update
of its Comprehensive Conservation and Management Plan.
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CLIMATE CHANGE
RISK MANAGEM
CLIMATE READY
ESTUA RlES
oEPA
CRE Adaptation Projects and
the Risk Management Process
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and its partners in the National Estuary Program (NEP)
have collaborated on 20 Climate Ready Estuaries (CRE) adaptation projects in the program's first
three years, from 2008-2010. As CRE builds a critical mass of project success stories, opportunities
are arising to do more than collect and relate anecdotes about individual projects. The program has
the chance to synthesize stories about climate adaptation.
This section of the Climate Ready Estuaries 2011 Progress Report examines how CRE projects illustrate
and support the risk management paradigm for climate change adaptation. Collectively, the NEP
partners demonstrate how risk management can be successfully applied to address environmental
challenges in our country's coastal areas.
Risk management
Climate change will pose a range of challenges to the nation's coasts. Some of the challenges will be
new, while other ongoing problems will be exacerbated by climate changes. All areas will: (1) face a
unique set of impacts, (2) assess consequences differently, and (3) have distinctive resources that can
be brought to bear on the problems. Due to the sheer variety of potential place-based challenges
and responses, the federal Interagency Climate Change Adaptation Task Force (in its October 2010
Progress Report), as well as the U.S. Government Accountability Office, the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change, and the National Research Council, have all recently described adaptation to
climate change impacts as a problem that is suited to a risk management approach.
Risk management is a process that helps an organization minimize the risks that may keep it from
reaching its goals. Risk management also guides decision making by systematically leading an
organization to determine what risks are important and need to be addressed.
Risk management is particularly useful in planning for climate change. The likelihood and timing of
future climate changes cannot be precisely known. Further, the types and severity of impacts cannot
be exactly defined. This does not mean that organizations should walk away from an impossible
problem: it means they should take prudent steps to avoid or minimize risks associated with unwanted
outcomes.
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Risk management framework
The leading risk management guidance
documents recommend a sequence of
activities similar to the one described in the
ISO 31000 standards on risk management.1'2
These steps are outlined here and described
in subsequent sections of this report.
A cookie cutter approach for addressing
climate change that will work everywhere
does not exist. This is why a risk management
approach that lets organizations work within
their own contexts to identify and address
the risks that affect their own goals is such a
useful tool.
1 ISO (2009). Risk Management—Principles and
Guidelines. ISO 31000:2009 (E).
2 I EC/ISO (2009). Risk Management—Risk Assessment
Techniques. EC/ISO 31010.
The Risk Management Framework
from ISO 31000
Communication and consultation
Establishing the context
5.4 Risk assessment
Risk identification
Risk analysis
'Risk evaluation
5.5 Risk treatment
'Selection of risk treatment options
'Preparing and implementing risk
treatment plans
5.6 Monitoring and review
CRE projects and risk management
Every area along the U.S. coast has different characteristics, and the NEP partners vary in important
respects. Each NEP has tackled the piece of the climate change adaptation puzzle that it has believed
to be appropriate for its current situation. In early meetings with NEP partners, two of the lessons that
were distilled were to start small and to move forward with the data available. So CRE projects have
short circuited the risk management guidance in ISO 31000 (page 17) that explains, "The aim... is to
generate a comprehensive list of risks based on those events that might create, enhance, prevent,
degrade, accelerate or delay the achievement of objectives...." and "Comprehensive identification is
critical...."
Many NEPs have targeted their efforts on specific, known problems instead of looking across
the universe of possible threats. Although a few projects have looked broadly at a suite of local
climate risks, no one CRE partner has taken a risk management process from start to finish. A high
proportion of CRE projects match with the early steps of the risk management process: stakeholder
communications, establishing contexts, and risk identification are well represented.
The following sections present examples from CRE's first 20 projects to illustrate the steps of the
risk management framework. While the 20 projects all are illustrative of one or more steps, the
following sections highlight aspects of projects that are particularly good examples of the step under
discussion. Using a tenet of geographical analysis that space might serve as a surrogate for time,
projects at separate NEPs collectively demonstrate how risk management could support a program
of coastal climate change adaptation.
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Communication and consultation
This step is intended to communicate why a vulnerability assessment is necessary, what the process will
be like, and what to expect going forward. Involving internal and external stakeholders will ensure that
their concerns, interests, perceptions, and views are considered in subsequent risk management steps.
Consulting with them helps to build understanding and support for the subsequent steps.
Establishing the context
Every organization exists in a cultural, political, financial, regulatory, and ecological situation. Every
organization also has a reason for being (i.e., its mission) and has goals that it pursues. The internal and
external context in which climate impacts will act helps set the scope for the risk management process.
Many CRE partners are working to increase communication and education about climate change
impacts and adaptation among stakeholders and establish the context in which they will move
forward. Various contexts call for different approaches. Some NEP projects work directly with the
general public, while others are oriented to key stakeholders.
Communicating with the public
• The Albemarle-Pamlico National Estuary Program (APNEP), in partnership with the Albemarle-
Pamlico Conservation and Communities Collaborative (AP3C), hosted seven public listening
sessions to hear residents' concerns about sea level rise and population growth, elicit their ideas
about solutions, and provide recommendations to improve outreach and education projects. In
February 2009, APNEP and AP3C produced a report, "Public Listening Sessions: Sea Level Rise
and Population Growth in North Carolina," describing the design, findings, and recommendations
from the sessions. Following the public listening sessions, APNEP identified key audiences with
whom to follow up. These included underprivileged communities, local officials, schools, and
coastal communities. Additionally, the public listening sessions identified the need for more detailed
information and discussion of sea level rise.
• The Long Island Sound Study NEP, in partnership with ICLEI and the city of Groton, Connecticut,
held three stakeholder workshops in 2010 to discuss local climate change vulnerability and options
for improving resilience. The first workshop focused on potential climate change impacts, while
later sessions focused on developing, prioritizing, and modeling the costs of a suite of adaptation
options. The city of Groton will use a report summarizing workshop outcomes to begin
implementing adaptation strategies and to develop an adaptation plan.
• In collaboration with the Jacques Cousteau National Estuarine Research Reserve (New Jersey), the
Barnegat Bay Partnership held a conference, "Preparing Your Community in the Face of Climate
Change," in April 2010 to assess local stakeholder knowledge and support for climate change
action. Additional public listening sessions and a stakeholder survey were used to further gauge
regional knowledge, attitudes, and interest in local issues related to climate change.
Program directors and key stakeholders
• The Casco Bay Estuary Partnership developed a climate change stakeholder outreach plan that
integrated ecosystem resilience into broader messages about climate change. Since many Maine
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organizations and agencies are engaged in efforts to encourage local decision-makers to
incorporate climate change into their day-to-day decisions and long-term planning, CBEP chose to
focus its efforts on adaptation outreach. Through consultation with stakeholders, CBEP identified
two key audiences for targeted outreach efforts: the land conservation community and the water
resources and water infrastructure community.
In an effort to incorporate climate change considerations into its Comprehensive Conservation
and Management Plan, the Lower Columbia River Estuary Partnership (LCREP) coordinated with
its Estuary Partnership Science Work Group and Board of Directors throughout the process. The
focus was on identifying existing actions that address impacts of climate change, actions that can
be modified to address climate change, and additional necessary actions. In June 2011, LCREP
hosted the 5th annual Science to Policy Summit: Climate Change—Adapting Our Actions, at which
stakeholders discussed potential adaptations for the lower Columbia River region.
Risk identification
Risk identification is the process of identifying what might affect the ability of an organization to achieve
its goals. ISO 31000 says, "The aim of this step is to generate a comprehensive list of risks based on
those events that might create, enhance, prevent, degrade, accelerate or delay the achievement of
objectives."
CRE partners have approached the step of risk identification in a variety of ways. Some have
commissioned or performed broad assessments of how climate change may affect their watersheds.
As explained earlier, a few have focused on smaller slices of the spectrum, such as particular
ecosystems or hazards. Others have looked at climate change in the context of the other frameworks
in which they operate.
Broad assessment
• The Casco Bay Estuary Partnership published a report in December 2009, "Climate Change in the
Casco Bay Watershed: Past, Present, and Future," which looked at historic and projected trends for
eight indicators in the Casco Bay watershed. To generate future projections, simulated temperature
and precipitation data from four climate models were fitted to local, long-term weather observations.
• The Charlotte Harbor National Estuary Program conducted a broad vulnerability assessment for
its seven-county southwest Florida study area which contributed to the development of a set of
climate change indicators.
• The Albemarle-Pamlico National Estuary Program conducted a broad assessment of its
vulnerabilities and research needs. The assessment was informed by a series of public listening
sessions, and the results were published in a September 2010 report titled "Climate Ready
Estuaries: A Blueprint for Change."
Particular ecosystems
• The Massachusetts Bays Program and the San Francisco Estuary Program worked in partnership
with the EPA Office of Research and Development to use expert elicitation as a methodology for
10 CLIMATE READY ESTUARIES 2011 PROGRESS REPORT
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identifying climate change-related risks. In these pilot studies, two groups of experts focused on
key ecosystem processes related to sediment retention in mudflats and salt marshes. In the San
Francisco Bay system, the experts focused on ecological interactions of wading shorebirds and
their food sources. In Massachusetts, they focused on nesting habitat for salt marsh sparrows.
The experts were guided through a series of questions to help identify key processes and their
interrelationships. Different pathways were analyzed to identify where major shifts might be likely
in order to determine how the systems are sensitive to climate changes.
• The Santa Monica Bay Restoration Commission identified the Ballona Wetlands as an area of
particular concern regarding climate change impacts. The commission is using downscaled climate
scenarios in a watershed hydrology model to assess the impacts of changes in temperature,
precipitation, and sea level.
Particular hazards
• The Sarasota Bay Estuary Program (SBEP) is focusing specifically on sea level rise and its
potential impacts to Sarasota and Manatee Counties. SBEP developed and launched a sea level
rise visualization tool (http://www.sarasotabay.org/slr-web-map), which allows users to see how
different magnitudes of sea level rise affect their communities. SBEP has conducted focus groups
with its Citizens Advisory Committee, Technical Advisory Committee, Management Board, and
Policy Board, as well as Sarasota County and Manatee County staff and citizens, to test and
introduce the sea level rise Web visualization tool.
• The Piscataqua Region Estuaries Partnership focused its initial vulnerability assessment efforts on
inland flooding, specifically the potential impact of increased stormwater runoff and flooding on
stormwater drainage systems in the Oyster River watershed. Under-road culverts were of particular
interest.
Using existing frameworks
• The Puget Sound Partnership applied an existing methodology for developing indicators of
ecosystem health to the context of climate change. An additional set of indicators specific to
climate change and Puget Sound is ready to be recommended for incorporation into the regional
monitoring network.
• The Tampa Bay Estuary Program focused on identifying climate change risks to the restoration of
coastal habitat, which is one of the key goals of the NEP. A toolkit of recommendations and options
drawn from local experience will help to ensure the success of future habitat restoration projects.
Risk analysis
Risk analysis is the process of understanding a risk, which includes identifying causes of the risk, assessing
the likelihood (probability) of it occurring, and assessing the consequences if it were to occur. Risk analysis
is essential to making decisions about which risks will become organizational priorities.
As potential problems have been identified, NEPs have taken various approaches to assessing their
severity. Some have turned to monitoring to detect whether climate impacts are starting to affect
their systems. Others have consulted scientists and other experts to evaluate specific threats, or they
have used GIS and related modeling to assess the magnitude of important climate risks.
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Using monitoring
• The Sentinel Monitoring for Climate Change in Long Island Sound initiative was developed to
show how Long Island Sound is changing and provide scientists and managers with a way to
determine appropriate adaptation strategies for these impacts. In summer 2011, the Long Island
Sound Study NEP released an updated report, "Sentinel Monitoring for Climate Change in the
Long Island Sound Estuarine and Coastal Ecosystems of New York and Connecticut," and launched
a website that provides additional information on the new climate change early warning system
(http://longislandsoundstudy.net/research-monitoring/sentinel-monitoring/).
Using experts
• Following the risk identification process described previously, the expert elicitation process with the
Massachusetts Bays Program and the San Francisco Estuary Program continued to link process
variables to management actions that could reduce the negative impacts of climate change. Experts
in various fields based their judgments on the body of scientific evidence using information ranging
from direct experimental evidence to theoretical insights.
• The Partnership for the Delaware Estuary has engaged experts throughout its tri-state region to
conduct an assessment of the vulnerabilities and adaptation options for three key resources: tidal
wetlands, drinking water, and bivalve shellfish. The case studies will help guide adaptation options
in the region and were published in a May 2010 report, "Climate Change and the Delaware Estuary:
Three Case Studies in Vulnerability and Adaptation Planning."
Using models
• As part of the Oyster River Culvert Analysis Project described above in the Risk Identification
section, the Piscataqua River Estuaries Partnership (PREP) used a Geographic Information System
(GIS) watershed model to analyze how specific culverts would perform in several climate change
and land use scenarios. PREP ranked individual culverts according to vulnerability and safety issues
in order to provide decision makers with a prioritized schedule for planning culvert upgrades.
• The Partnership for the Delaware Estuary released a report in March 2010, "Application of
Ecological and Economic Models of the Impacts of Sea Level Rise to the Delaware Estuary." This
study utilized a modeling approach coupling the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) and
Habitat Equivalency Analysis (HEA) to estimate gains and losses of different marsh types under
a variety of sea level rise scenarios and to project how the changing landscape would affect the
provisioning of ecosystem services.
• The Indian River Lagoon National Estuary Program conducted a vulnerability assessment of
the city of Satellite Beach, Florida, using a GIS platform to construct a three dimensional model
of the city. Land elevation was added to the base map using LiDAR topographic data and aerial
photographs. The assessment identified critical assets in Satellite Beach that would be vulnerable
to different sea level rise scenarios. The Indian River Lagoon NEP also specifically assessed the
vulnerability of wetlands to sea level rise by using SLAMM. The NEP and consultants employed
a methodology similar to one used previously by the Partnership for the Delaware Estuary. This
information is being used to identify priorities for habitat restoration and conservation.
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Risk evaluation
This is the process of cross-referencing the risk assessment with the organization's context to decide
which risks are of concern, and then to prioritize problems. Decisions about whether or not risks need
further action are outcomes of this step.
Earlier this report pointed out that NEPs tend to start with risks about which they were already
concerned. In essence, they have already performed a risk evaluation, and they know they will
continue to work on issues that are important in their context. When more comprehensive risk
identification is available and many risks have been found to be worthy of attention, then a
prioritization of further action is needed.
• The Charlotte Harbor Estuary Program (CHNEP) used stakeholder judgment to rank multiple
risks. A survey was developed to determine which risks were of highest priority for stakeholders.
The survey results and subcommittee helped narrow the list of candidate indicators to 18. Then
CHNEP's Management Conference approved a final set of five indicators: changes to precipitation
trend/patterns (including extreme precipitation), sea level rise, water temperature, phenology, and
habitat migration.
Selection of risk treatment options
After risks are evaluated in the prior step, some will have been assigned for further action. This
step—the development of an adaptation plan—is the process of selecting strategies that will be
used to avoid risks or lessen their impact.
Preparing and implementing risk treatment plans
This is the step where an adaptation plan will be put into action. Risks will be mitigated or
adaptations to unavoidable impacts will be implemented.
Most CRE partners are working on projects that correspond to steps earlier in the risk management
process. As they continue to assess climate change in their watersheds, more NEPs will reach the
step of deciding that they have an opportunity or a need to respond.
• The Partnership for the Delaware Estuary (PDE) focused on three risk areas from the beginning and
intended to address adaptation measures for them regardless of other potential risks, so they did not
engage in the previous risk evaluation step. PDE used expert consultation to determine
adaptation options. As described in the June 2010 report, "Climate Change and the Delaware
Estuary: Three Case Studies in Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning," scientists and
managers with expertise in each of the case study areas identified and ranked their concerns and
recommended adaptation options, which are leading to follow-on work.
• In some instances, the work that NEPs did in their CRE projects has led their stakeholders to
continue the adaptation process. Punta Gorda, Florida, developed a climate change adaptation
plan for the city through its partnership with the Charlotte Harbor National Estuary Program. The
Piscataqua Region Estuaries Partnership has worked with government groups in their watershed
to address the problems that were raised through its Oyster River Culvert Study.
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Climate Ready Estuaries Partners, 2008-2011
Albemarle-Pamlico National Estuary Program
Barnegat Bay Partnership
Casco Bay Estuary Partnership
Charlotte Harbor National Estuary Program
Indian River Lagoon National Estuary Program
Long Island Sound Study
Lower Columbia River Estuary Partnership
Massachusetts Bays Program
Morro Bay National Estuary Program
Narragansett Bay Estuary Program
New York-New Jersey Harbor Estuary Program
Partnership for the Delaware Estuary
Piscataqua Region Estuaries Partnership
Puget Sound Partnership
San Francisco Estuary Partnership
Santa Monica Bay Restoration Commission
Sarasota Bay Estuary Program
Tampa Bay Estuary Program
Tillamook Estuaries Partnership
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CLIMATE READY ESTUARIES AND THE
ADAPTATION COMMUNITY
Interagency Climate Change Adaptation Task Force
The White House Council on Environmental Quality acknowledged Climate Ready Estuaries as one of the
current federal efforts in support of adaptation in its Progress Report of the Interagency Climate Change
Adaptation Task Force: Recommended Actions in Support of a National Climate Change Adaptation
Strategy (Octobers, 2010). The Adaptation Task Force published eight Guiding Principles for Adaptation,
which, as this CRE progress report attests, correspond very well with the approach this program has taken.
• Adopt Integrated Approaches
• Prioritize the Most Vulnerable
* Use Best-Available Science
• Build Strong Partnerships
* Apply Risk-Management Methods and Tools
• Apply Ecosystem-Based Approaches
f Maximize Mutual Benefits
* Continuously Evaluate Performance
The report is available at: http://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/eop/ceq/initiatives/adaptation.
Lessons Learned From the
Climate Ready Estuaries Program
CRE produced a pamphlet on lessons learned from NEP partners that is based
on the Climate Ready Estuaries 2010 Progress Report. It is organized around four
themes: Vulnerability Assessment, Stakeholder Engagement, Climate Change
Indicators and Monitoring, and Adaptation Planning. Lessons Learned from the
Climate Ready Estuaries Program is available at:
http://www.epa.gov/cre/downloads/CRE%20Lessons%20Learned%20508.pdf.
Media Features
The Coastal Society Bulletin
EPA was interviewed about CRE for The Coastal Society's summer
2011 edition of the TCS Bulletin. The article describes CRE and recent
accomplishments:
http://www.thecoastalsociety.org/pdf/bulletin/Summer2011v4.pdf.
Marine Protected Areas Connections
An "Interview with the Barnegat Bay Program and the Jacques Cousteau National Estuarine
Research Reserve on the Climate Ready Estuary Program" appeared in a special issue of
MPA Connect/ons focused on climate change:
http://www.mpa.gov/pdf/helpful-resources/connections/connections_dec10.pdf.
15
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Twitter
Since November 2010, CRE has been posting weekly "Climate Friday" tweets through the EPA Office of
Wetlands, Oceans & Watersheds (OWOW) Twitter account. By August 2011 the EPAowow account on
Twitter had more than 10,000 followers who have voluntarily signed up to receive news from OWOW.
Through the power of new Web communication tools, thousands of people get a short CRE update about
climate adaptation every week.
http://twitter.com/EPAowow
Hash tag: #crenews
f- EPA - owow (epaowow) on Twitter - Windows Internet Explorer
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30- http://twitter.com/* I /epaowow v
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Climate Change Adaptation Tools
for Addressing Water Issues
Watershed Academy Webcast
Thursday, December 2, 2010
1:00-3:00 Eastern
John Whnnr. USE« OSFlciof GrcLfidWWfcr tna CMr-Jong Water
Watershed Academy
In December 2010, CRE and CRWU presented
a live EPA Watershed Academy Webcast to
nearly 600 participants. "Climate Change
Adaptation Tools for Addressing Water Issues,"
focused on facilitating climate adaptation in the
water sector. Speakers from EPA, Spartanburg
Water, South Carolina and the Charlotte Harbor
National Estuary Program, Florida discussed
their on-the-ground adaptation efforts. An
archived version of the webcast is available at:
http://water.epa.gov/learn/training/wacademy/
archives.cfm#change.
King Tides
CRE has been busy planning for how the NEPs can use the king tide as
an opportunity to engage the public about sea level rise. A king tide
is the highest predicted high tide of the year at a coastal location. It is
a proxy for sea level rise because sea level rise will make today's king
tides become the future's everyday tides.
CRE has been promoting king tide education campaigns, specifically
the use of documentary photography, with partners in the NEP.
EPA also worked with NOAA to prepare a fact sheet to describe king
tides.
High water flooding in Washington, D.C.
17
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CLIMATE READY ESTUARIES PRODUCT:
"A rolling easement is a legally
enforceable expectation that the
shore or human access along the
shore can migrate inland instead
of being squeezed between an
advancing sea and a fixed prop-
erty line or physical structure."
Rising sea level is inundating low-lying lands, eroding
beaches, and exacerbating coastal flooding. Governments
and landowners usually respond by protecting developed
areas from the rising sea, either by adding sand to eroding
beaches or by erecting dikes, seawalls, revetments, and other
shore protection structures. A wide variety of information and
assistance programs are available to support these "shore
protection" efforts. However, shore protection may not always
be appropriate. Defending coastal development from the
rising sea would expose many people to the hazard of living
below sea level, would prevent wetlands and beaches from
migrating inland, and may cost more than the property being
protected is worth.
In 2011, CRE released a primer entitled Rolling Easements (http://epa.gov/cre/
downloads/rollingeasementsprimer.pdf) that presents an alternative vision: base future devel-
opment of low-lying coastal lands on the premise that eventually the land must give way to the
rising sea. The primer examines more than a dozen approaches for ensuring that wetlands and
beaches can migrate inland, including:
• Conservation easements that prohibit shore protection
• Future interests in land that transfer ownership from a home-
owner to a land trust when sea level reaches a specified level
• Covenants and easements between neighbors
• Boundaries between private landowners that migrate as the
shore retreats
• Zoning that prohibits shore protection
Transferable development rights that promote the landward
migration of barrier islands.
Many of those measures would ensure that access along the shore
is not lost as a beach erodes. Rolling Easements examines
options designed specifically to preserve access, such as adding
permit conditions that preserve access along new shore protection
structures, ensuring that shoreline easements are rolling easements, and
precisely defining the inland boundary of public access in those states where
courts have not yet done so. The primer also provides perspectives on the
legal implications of retreating shores and the tax consequences of donating
a rolling easement.
ROLLING EASEMENTS
18 CLIMATE READY ESTUARIES 2011 PROGRESS REPORT
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Migration of Wetlands and Boundary between Public and Private Land,
with a Property Subject to a Rolling Easement
TODAY
+80 YEARS
+100 YEARS
PHIVME j
'PLJBLC
+60 YEARS
+120 YEARS
Low Marsh
High Marsh
A rolling easement allows construction near the shore, but requires the property owner to recognize
nature's right-of-way by allowing wetlands and the public access way to advance inland as sea level rises. In
the sample case depicted, the high marsh encompasses the footprint of the house 40 years later. Because
the house is on pilings, it can still be occupied, assuming that it is hooked to a sewerage treatment plant.
(A flooded septic system would probably fail, because the drain field must be a minimum distance above
the water table.) After 60 years, the marsh has advanced enough to require the owner to park her car along
the street and construct a catwalk across the front yard. After 80 years, the marsh has taken over the entire
yard and has reached the street; moreover, the footprint of the house is now seaward of mean high water,
and hence is on public property. At this point, additional reinvestment in the property is unlikely. Twenty
years later, the particular house has been removed, although other houses on the same street may still be
occupied. Eventually, the entire area returns to nature.
19
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Albemarle-Pamlico
National Estuary Program
www.apnep.org
Lower Columbia River
Estuary Partnership
www.lcrep.org
Barnegat Bay Partnership
bbp.ocean.edu
Massachusetts Bays
Program
www.mass.gov/envir/massbays
Casco Bay Estuary
Partnership
www.cascobay.usm.maine.edu
Morro Bay National Estuary
Program
www.mbnep.org
Charlotte Harbor National
Estuary Program
www.chnep.org
Indian River Lagoon National
Estuary Program
www.sjrwmd.com/itsyourlagoon
Long Island Sound
Study
www.longislandsoundstudy.net
Narragansett Bay
Estuary Program
www.nbep.org
New York-New Jersey Harbor
Estuary Program
www.harborestuary.org
Partnership for the
Delaware Estuary
www.delawareestuary.org
20 CLIMATE READY ESTUARIES 2011 PROGRESS REPORT
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Piscataqua Region
Estuaries Partnership
www.prep.unh.edu
Puget Sound Partnership
www.psp.wa.gov
San Francisco Estuary
Partnership
www. sf estu a ry. o rg
Moving forward on climate change adaptation
will require the combined efforts of numerous
partners that can contribute energy and resources.
Climate change is a multifaceted problem that
requires engagement from all sectors of coastal
management.
CRE examples and lessons inform other
adaptation efforts and help build the coastal
climate adaptation community. In an effort to
strengthen this group, CRE encourages the
NEPs to work with other federal, state, and
local partners on adaptation projects.
Santa Monica Bay
Restoration Commission
www.santamonicabay.org
Sarasota Bay Estuary Program
www.sarasotabay.org
Tampa Bay Estuary Program
www.tbep.org
In their 2011 CRE project work plans the NEPs
identified partners from NERRS, state Sea
Grants, NRCS, universities, environmental NGOs,
philanthropic organizations, professional societies,
local governments, emergency management
agencies, land trusts, water utilities, corporations,
state agencies, and regional planning
commissions.
CRE values all who have joined in and contributed
to program success.
Tillamook Estuaries
Partnership
www.tbnep.org
CLIMATE READY
ESTUARIES
21
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Office of Water
Office of Air and Radiation
EPA-842-R-11-004
December 2011
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