Summary and Analysis of the 2011
Nonroad Diesel Fuel Pre-Compliance
Reports
&EPA
United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
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Summary and Analysis of the 2011
Nonroad Diesel Fuel Pre-Compliance
Reports
Compliance Division
Office of Transportation and Air Quality
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
NOTICE
This technical report does not necessarily represent final EPA decisions or
positions. It is intended to present technical analysis of issues using data
that are currently available. The purpose in the release of such reports is to
facilitate the exchange of technical information and to inform the public of
technical developments.
&EPA
United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
EPA-420-R-12-006
January 2012
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Table of Contents
I. Executive Summary 1
II. Nonroad Diesel Program Overview 2
III. Nonroad Pre-Compliance Reporting Requirements 4
IV. NRLM Summary Data 5
A. Nationwide Analysis 5
1. Refineries and Importers - Numbers and Production 5
2. Projected Credit Generation and Use 7
3. Project Scope and Timing 9
4. Small Refiner Options 10
B. PADD Analysis 11
1. PADD1 14
2. PADD 2 15
3. PADD 3 16
4. PADD 4 17
5. PADD 5 18
C. Comparison of 2010 and 2011 NRLM Pre-Compliance Reports 19
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II. Nonroad Diesel Program Overview
I. Executive Summary
Any refiner or importer planning to produce or import nonroad, locomotive,
or marine (NRLM) diesel fuel containing 15 parts per million (ppm) sulfur or less
after June 1, 2010 was required to submit annual pre-compliance reports to the U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Reports were due annually by June 1 from
2005 through 2011 under the diesel sulfur regulations. This report summarizes the
results of the 2011 nonroad pre-compliance reports, and is the last such report that
will be issued under the diesel sulfur regulations.
Refiners' and importers' nonroad pre-compliance reports had to contain
estimates of the volume of diesel fuel containing 15 ppm sulfur or less ("15 ppm
diesel fuel") and diesel fuel containing 500 ppm sulfur or less ("500 ppm diesel fuel")
produced or imported from June 1, 2010 through December 31, 2014. For those
refiners and importers planning on participating in the credit trading program, the
reports had to contain a projection of how many credits will be generated and/or used
by each refinery or importer. The pre-compliance reports had to also contain
information outlining each refinery's timeline for complying with the 15 ppm sulfur
standard and provide information regarding engineering plans (e.g., design and
construction), and capital commitments for making the necessary modifications to
produce 15 ppm NRLM diesel fuel.
The 2011 nonroad pre-compliance reports showed that:
- 112 refineries are planning to produce 15 ppm diesel fuel by June 1, 2014
- 28 refineries are either undecided as to their plans, or are choosing to stop
producing NRLM diesel fuel by June 1, 2014
refiners are taking advantage of the flexibilities offered by the regulations
(20 refineries said they generated high sulfur credits in 2006 and 2007, 24
refineries said they generated 500 ppm credits in 2009 and 2010, small
refiners are utilizing all of the options available to them)
total highway and NRLM diesel fuel ("total diesel fuel") production and
importation is projected to grow from 2010 through 2014
- total diesel fuel production and importation beginning June 1, 2010
decreased compared to the 2010 nonroad pre-compliance reports
This data represents estimates made by refiners, some of whose compliance
plans may change. While the reported information is subject to change, the results
provide the clearest snapshot of refiners' aggregate nonroad diesel sulfur compliance
plans available as of June 1, 2011. They represent the assessment of those who have
first-hand knowledge of the unique situation faced by each refinery.
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II. Nonroad Diesel Program Overview
II. Nonroad Diesel Program Overview
The Nonroad Diesel final rule (69 FR 38958, June 29, 2004) contains a 3-step
approach to reducing the sulfur content of nonroad, locomotive, and marine (NRLM)
diesel fuel from uncontrolled levels down to 15 ppm or less. Beginning June 1, 2007,
refiners and importers were required to produce or import NRLM diesel fuel with a
maximum sulfur content of 500 ppm. Beginning June 1, 2010, refiners and importers
were required to produce or import nonroad (NR) diesel fuel with a maximum sulfur
content of 15 ppm. Beginning June 1, 2012, refiners and importers are required to
produce or import locomotive and marine (LM) diesel fuel with a maximum sulfur
content of 15 ppm.
The rule includes provisions for refiners and importers to generate credits for
early efforts to reduce NRLM diesel sulfur. "High sulfur" credits could be generated
for early production of 500 ppm NRLM diesel fuel between June 1, 2006 and June 1,
2007. Similarly, "500 ppm" credits could be generated for early production of 15
ppm NRLM diesel fuel between June 1, 2009 and June 1, 2010. "High sulfur" credits
could be used to comply with the 500 ppm sulfur standard for NRLM diesel fuel
beginning June 1, 2007, while "500 ppm" credits could be used to comply with the 15
ppm sulfur standard for NR diesel fuel beginning June 1, 2010 and the 15 ppm sulfur
standard for LM diesel fuel beginning June 1, 2012. For both high sulfur credits and
500 ppm credits, one credit is equivalent to one gallon of diesel fuel that meets the
respective standard earlier than required. In addition, "high sulfur" credits can be
converted into "500 ppm" credits for use after June 1, 2010. NRLM diesel sulfur
credits may be transferred nationwide. No credit trading area restrictions exist such
as those in the Highway Diesel rulemaking.
Small Refiner Flexibilities
Additional compliance flexibilities are provided for small refiners in the
nonroad diesel sulfur regulations. The criteria for qualification as an NRLM small
refiner are similar to those under the Gasoline Sulfur and Highway Diesel rules. To
qualify as "small", a refiner must: 1) process NRLM diesel fuel from crude oil; 2)
employ no more than 1,500 people corporate-wide, based on the average number of
employees for all pay periods from January 1, 2002 to January 1, 2003; and, 3) have a
corporate crude oil capacity less than or equal to 155,000 barrels per calendar day
(bpcd) for 2002.
The small refiner relief options provide additional time for compliance and,
for small refiners that choose to comply earlier than required with the NRLM
requirements, the option of either generating diesel fuel sulfur credits or receiving a
limited relaxation of their gasoline sulfur standards. These small refiner options are
described in more detail below.
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II. Nonroad Diesel Program Overview
Option 1 - Delay production of 500 ppm NRLM diesel fuel
This option allowed approved small refiners an additional 3 years to comply
with the 500 ppm sulfur standard for NRLM diesel fuel. Small refiners had a 500
ppm NRLM compliance date of June 1, 2010, compared to a compliance date of June
1, 2007 for non-small refiners. Small refiners could continue to produce high sulfur
(greater than 500 ppm) NRLM diesel fuel until June 1, 2010. However, production of
high sulfur NRLM diesel fuel from a small refiner's refinery between June 1, 2007
and June 1, 2010 was limited to 105 percent of the refinery's average NRLM diesel
fuel production from 2003 through 2005.
Option 2 - Delay production of 15 ppm NRLM diesel fuel
This option allows approved small refiners additional time to comply with the
15 ppm sulfur standard for NRLM diesel fuel. Small refiners have a single 15 ppm
NRLM compliance date of June 1, 2014, compared to 15 ppm compliance dates for
non-small refiners of June 1, 2010 and June 1, 2012 for NR and LM diesel fuel,
respectively. Small refiners may continue to produce 500 ppm NRLM diesel fuel
until June 1, 2014. However, production of 500 ppm NRLM diesel fuel from a small
refiner's refinery between June 1, 2010 and June 1, 2014 is limited to 105 percent of
the refinery's average NRLM diesel fuel production from 2006 through 2008.
Option 3 - NRLM Credit Option
The NRLM Credit Option allows approved small refiners additional time to
generate nonroad diesel sulfur credits, compared to non-small refiners. Small refiners
could generate "High Sulfur" credits if their refinery's annual average 500 ppm
NRLM diesel fuel production between June 1, 2006 and June 1, 2010 exceeded the
refinery's annual average NRLM diesel fuel production from 2003 through 2005
(non-small refiners could only generate "High Sulfur" credits between June 1, 2006
and June 1, 2007). Small refiners could also generate "500 ppm" credits if their
refinery's annual average 15 ppm NRLM diesel fuel production between June 1, 2009
and December 31, 2013 exceeded the refinery's average annual NRLM diesel fuel
production from 2006 through 2008 (non-small refiners could only generate "500
ppm" credits between June 1, 2009 and June 1, 2010). These credits can be banked
for future use or sold to another refiner.
Option 4 - NRLM Diesel/Gasoline Compliance Option
This option was available to small refiners that elected not to use Options 1, 2
or 3. Under this option, at least 95 percent of the NRLM diesel fuel produced at a
small refiner's refinery had to meet the 15 ppm sulfur standard by June 1, 2006.
Annual average production of 15 ppm NRLM diesel fuel at the refinery had to be
equal to or greater than 85 percent of the refinery's annual average NRLM diesel fuel
production from 2003 through 2005. Small refiners who chose this option received a
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II. Nonroad Diesel Program Overview
modest relaxation in their interim refinery gasoline sulfur standards beginning
January 1, 2004. Specifically, the applicable refinery annual average and per-gallon
cap standards were increased by 20 percent through 2007. A small refiner could elect
to further extend the duration of the refinery interim gasoline sulfur standards through
2010 by producing all highway diesel fuel at the refinery containing less than 15 ppm
sulfur or less by June 1, 2006. However, in no case could the per-gallon gasoline
sulfur cap exceed 450 ppm.
Other Flexibilities
Unlike the Highway Diesel rule, the Nonroad Diesel rule did not provide any
specific flexibilities for refineries located in the Geographic Phase-in Area (GPA).
Refiners located in the Rocky Mountain States (ID, MT, ND, WY, UT, CO and NM)
must comply with the 500 ppm and 15 ppm sulfur standards by the NRLM
compliance dates discussed above. NRLM diesel fuel used in rural areas of Alaska (a
GPA state in the gasoline sulfur rulemaking) is exempt from the 500 ppm NRLM
diesel fuel sulfur standard beginning June 1, 2007, but had to meet the 15 ppm sulfur
standard beginning June 1, 2010.l This fuel is regulated under a special rule for
Alaska which was finalized in June 2006 (71 FR 32450, June 6, 2006).
Transmix processors distill interface mixtures of petroleum products from
pipeline systems into gasoline and distillate fuel and are considered refiners by EPA.
Their simple refinery configuration does not make it cost effective for them to install
and operate a hydrotreater to reduce distillate fuel sulfur content. As a result, they
were provided with additional flexibility to comply with the diesel sulfur standards.
Transmix processors could choose to continue to produce all of their highway diesel
fuel to meet the 500 ppm sulfur standard until June 1, 2010. They could further
choose to continue to produce all of their NRLM diesel fuel as high sulfur diesel fuel
until June 1, 2010, and all of their NRLM diesel fuel to meet the 500 ppm sulfur
standard until June 1, 2014.
III. Nonroad Pre-Compliance Reporting Requirements
The diesel sulfur regulations required that any refiner or importer planning to
produce or import 15 ppm NRLM diesel fuel after June 1, 2010 had to submit annual
pre-compliance reports to EPA. The first nonroad pre-compliance report was due on
June 1, 2005 and subsequent reports were due annually through 2011.
The pre-compliance reports had to contain the following information:
1. Any changes in the refiner's or importer's basic company or facility
information since registration.
1 Rural areas are defined as areas of Alaska not served by the federal aid highway system (FAHS)
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III. Nonroad Pre-Compliance Reporting Requirements
2. Estimates of the average daily volumes of each sulfur grade of highway and
NRLM diesel fuel produced at each refinery or imported at each import
facility. The volume estimates must include both fuel produced from crude
oil and other sources for the periods of June 1, 2010 through December 31,
2010, calendar years 2011-2013, January 1, 2014 through May 31, 2014, and
June 1, 2014 through December 31, 2014.
3. For refiners or importers expecting to participate in the NRLM credit
program, estimates of the number of credits generated and/or used during the
periods above.
4. Information on project schedule by known or projected completion date (by
quarter) for each stage of the project (strategic planning, front-end
engineering, detailed engineering and permitting, procurement and
construction, and commissioning and startup).
5. Basic information regarding the selected technology pathway for compliance
(e.g. conventional hydrotreating versus other technologies, revamp versus
grassroots, etc.).
6. Whether capital investments have been made or are projected to be made.
7. An update of the progress in each of these areas.
We recognize that the pre-compliance reports contain preliminary information
and that final decisions on desulfurization plans may not have been made in all cases
as of the reporting deadline. Accordingly, the information in this summary and
analysis is based on the best available refinery information as of June 1, 2011.
IV. NRLM Summary Data
A. Nationwide Analysis
1. Refineries and Importers - Numbers and Production
According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), 140 refineries
reported producing either high or low sulfur (or both) distillate fuels in 2003. This
reported production includes data from 4 refiner/importers that are located outside of the
continental United States (in the U.S. Virgin Islands, Aruba, and Eastern Canada) whose
production is targeted to the U.S. market. We received 2011 pre-compliance reports for
130 refineries, all of which produced high and/or low sulfur diesel fuel in 2003, including
reports for 4 refineries that were shut down in 2009 or 2010. The 10 refineries which did
not send pre-compliance reports may be planning to produce high sulfur distillate fuel for
the heating oil market, or may be planning to sell their high sulfur distillate fuel to other
refineries that can desulfurize it.
Refiners indicated that they have made decisions for most of their refineries
whether or not to produce 15 ppm NRLM diesel fuel. Table 1 shows that a total of 118
refineries reported they produced 15 and/or 500 ppm diesel fuel beginning June 1, 2010.
The remaining 8 operational refineries that sent pre-compliance reports said that after
June 1, 2010, they either plan to produce only high sulfur distillate for the heating oil
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IV. NRLM Summary Data
market, or may sell their high sulfur distillate fuel to other refineries that can desulfurize
it.
Table 1.
U.S. Aggregated Report Information
Highway and NRLM Diesel Fuel Refinery Data 2010-2014
Year
# refineries producing diesel fuel
# refineries at 100% 15 ppm
# refineries at 100% 500 ppm
# refineries with 15/500 ppm mix
2010
118
92
6
20
2011
118
93
7
18
2012
117
95
5
17
2013
116
104
4
8
2014a2
114
105
2
7
2014b
112
112
0
0
The 2011 nonroad pre-compliance reports indicated that production of 15 ppm
and 500 ppm total diesel fuel beginning June 1, 2010 was 3.82 million bbls/day, as shown
in Table 2 below. Table 2 and Figure 1 also illustrate that national production of 15 ppm
diesel fuel is projected to increase by 498,000 bbls/day from 2010 to 2014, from 3.66
million to 4.15 million bbls/day. However, this projected increase is offset by a projected
decrease in 500 ppm NRLM diesel fuel production of 160,000 bbls/day from 2010 to
2014. Production of 500 ppm NRLM diesel fuel decreases from 160,000 bbls/day in
2010 to 100,000 bbls/day in 2012, as some refiners begin producing 15 ppm LM diesel
fuel by June 1, 2012. Production of 500 ppm NRLM diesel fuel ends completely by May
31, 2014, when the flexibilities for small refiners and NRLM credit use end.
Projected total diesel fuel production should be sufficient to meet future diesel
fuel demand. Although projected total production from the 2011 pre-compliance reports
has decreased compared to the 2010 pre-compliance reports, projected total production is
still greater than projected total diesel fuel demand from EIA's Annual Energy Outlook
(AEO) 2011. Total diesel fuel demand calculated from AEO 2011 is 3.86 million
bbls/day in 2015, compared to projected total diesel fuel production of 4.15 million
bbls/day in 2014.3
As mentioned previously, 140 refineries reported to EIA that they produced low and/or
high sulfur distillate fuel in 2003. Eighteen of these refineries reported that they have no
plans at present to produce 15 ppm diesel fuel by June 1, 2014, and 10 refineries did not
send an NRLM pre-compliance report to EPA in 2011. In 2003, these 28 refineries
produced a total of 124,000 bbls/day of diesel fuel containing less than 500 ppm sulfur,
2 Data from the pre-compliance reports is divided into two sections for 2014 throughout this summary and
analysis. In all tables and figures, data for the first five months of 2014 is labeled 2014a, and data for the
last seven months of 2014 is labeled 2014b.
3 AEO 2011 proj ected a total distillate fuel oil demand of 4.13 million bbls/day in 2015 (see Table A11 in
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/pdf/appa.pdf). This total includes 266,000 bbls/day of distillate fuel oil
(heating oil) for residential energy consumption (see Table A2 at previous link). EPA does not require
heating oil to meet either a 15 ppm or 500 ppm sulfur standard, so total demand for 15 ppm and 500 ppm
diesel fuel was calculated by subtracting heating oil demand from total distillate fuel oil demand.
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IV. NRLM Summary Data
and 190,000 bbls/day of distillate fuel containing more than 500 ppm sulfur. We cannot
tell at this time if or when these refineries might choose to produce 15 ppm diesel fuel, or
whether they will simply choose to produce high sulfur distillate indefinitely.
Table 2.
U.S. Aggregated Report Information
Diesel Fuel Production 2010-2014
Year
Total 15 ppm (highway + NRLM), bbls/day
Total 500 ppm NRLM, bbls/day
Total 15 ppm and 500 ppm (highway + NRLM),
bbls/day
2010
3,656,561
159,897
3,816,458
2011
3,952,808
159,566
4,112,374
2012
4,044,563
99,921
4,144,483
2013
4,145,313
36,130
4,181,443
2014a
4,144,082
28,206
4,172,288
2014b
4,154,886
0
4,154,886
Figure 1. Projected (Highway + NRLM) Diesel Fuel Production by Type, 2010-2014
5 000 000 -|
A ^nn nnn
o
D
"- 4,000,000 -
o
(A
, o, DUD, DUD
_i ra
f* ~O
Z 2,OUU,UUU
+ -Q
^j 1, ODD, DUD
if
2
\— ODD, DUD
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014a 2014b
Year
• 500 ppm sulfur
D 15 ppm sulfur
2. Projected Credit Generation and Use
Table 3 shows total reported nonroad diesel sulfur credits generated and used for
each year of the nonroad diesel sulfur credit program. High sulfur credits are shown for
the last 7 months of 2006 (refiners could not begin generating high sulfur NRLM credits
until June 1, 2006), the full calendar years 2007 through 2009, and the first 5 months of
2010. 500 ppm credits are shown for the last 7 months of 2009, the full calendar years
2010 through 2013, and the first 5 months of 2014. Twenty refineries indicated they
generated a total of 2,006 million high sulfur credits (1 credit = 1 gallon early-compliant
2003 EIA data has been used as a baseline for comparison in all summary reports published since 2003.
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IV. NRLM Summary Data
diesel fuel), mostly during the early credit generation period from June 1, 2006 through
May 31, 2007, including 4 refineries owned by small refiners who generated high sulfur
credits after May 31, 2007. Nine refineries indicated they used a total of 1,820 million
high sulfur credits from June 1, 2007 through May 31, 2010.
Twenty four refineries indicated they plan to generate a total of 2,546 million 500
ppm credits, mostly during the early credit generation period from June 1, 2009 through
May 31, 2010, including 2 refineries owned by small refiners who plan to continue
generating 500 ppm credits after May 31, 2010. Seven refineries indicated they planned
to use a total of 1,959 million 500 ppm credits from June 1, 2010 through May 31, 2014.
Table 3.
U.S. Aggregated Report Information
Nonroad Diesel Fuel Credits 2006-2014
Year
# refineries generating high sulfur credits
# refineries using high sulfur credits
High sulfur credit generation, millions
High sulfur credit usage, millions
Year
# refineries generating 500 ppm credits
# refineries using 500 ppm credits
500 ppm credit generation, millions
500 ppm credit usage, millions
2009
24
1,217
2006
19
742
2010
24
5
1,018
367
2007
20
9
984
563
2011
2
5
111
319
2008
4
8
128
111
2012
1
7
95
818
2009
4
7
117
464
2013
1
6
106
407
2010
2
2
34
16
2014
3
47
total
2,006
1,820
total
2,546
1,959
Figures 2 and 3 below illustrate cumulative projected generation and usage of
high sulfur credits and 500 ppm credits by year. Both figures show that based on current
plans, refiners should generate more than enough of each type of credit to meet the
demand for each type of credit.
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IV. NRLM Summary Data
Figure 2. Total U.S. High Sulfur Credits
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2006
2007
2008
Year
2009
2010
I cumulative HSC generated • cumulative HSC used
Figure 3. Total U.S. 500 ppm Credits
3,000
2,500
£
-o 2,000
" 1,500
0
= 1,000
i
500
0
_
I
f — ,
T
x —
^
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IV. NRLM Summary Data
4) procurement and construction, and 5) commissioning and start-up. In the 2010
nonroad pre-compliance reports, most refiners indicated they were generally in the final
stages of their projects to produce 15 ppm NRLM diesel fuel, or did not plan to produce
any more 15 ppm diesel fuel than indicated in their highway pre-compliance reports.
Most were well into the procurement and construction stage, and some had completed the
commissioning and start-up stage.
In the 2011 NRLM pre-compliance reports, refiners indicated they have plans to
install new desulfurization capacity at 20 refineries specifically to produce 15 ppm
NRLM diesel fuel. Most of these refineries have completed and started up their
desulfurization units, and a few expect to start their desulfurization units up in 2011 or
2012.
All 20 refineries are either revamping existing hydrotreating or hydrocracking
units, or installing new hydrotreating or hydrocracking units. Of these 20 refineries, 7 are
planning to install a new desulfurization unit, 8 are planning to revamp an existing
desulfurization unit, and 5 refineries are planning to both install at least one new
desulfurization unit and revamp at least one existing desulfurization unit.
4. Small Refiner Options
As discussed previously, the diesel sulfur regulations contain 4 options which
provide qualified small refiners with flexibilities regarding production of 500 ppm or 15
ppm NRLM diesel fuel. Option 1 allowed a refinery owned by an approved small refiner
to delay production of 500 ppm NRLM diesel fuel until June 1, 2010. Refiners chose
Option 1 for 9 refineries. These 9 refineries produced 37,000 bbls/day high sulfur
distillate fuel in 2003.
Option 2 allows a refinery owned by an approved small refiner to delay
production of 15 ppm NRLM diesel fuel until June 1, 2014. Refiners chose Option 2 for
7 refineries. These 7 refineries produced 22,000 bbls/day high sulfur distillate fuel in
2003. (Options 1 and 2 are not mutually exclusive, small refiners could choose both
Options 1 and 2)
Option 3 allowed a small refiner to generate credits for 500 ppm NRLM diesel
fuel produced between June 1, 2006 and May 31, 2010 in excess of their refinery baseline
production, and also allows a small refiner to generate credits for 15 ppm NRLM diesel
fuel produced between June 1, 2009 and December 31, 2013 in excess of their refinery
baseline production. Refiners chose Option 3 for 4 refineries. These 4 refineries
produced 9,000 bbls/day high sulfur distillate fuel in 2003.
Lastly, Option 4 allowed a small refiner the ability to increase their refinery
gasoline sulfur standards by 20 percent, provided they began producing 15 ppm NRLM
diesel fuel by June 1, 2006 at their refinery, and their refinery's annual average 15 ppm
NRLM diesel fuel production was at least 85 percent of the refinery's annual average
10
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IV. NRLM Summary Data
NRLM diesel fuel production from 2003 through 2005. Refiners chose Option 4 for 5
refineries. These 5 refineries produced 18,000 bbls/day high sulfur distillate fuel in 2003.
The number of refineries owned by small refiners, and the production of high
sulfur distillate fuel from these refineries in 2003, are shown below in Table 4 for each
option.
Table 4.
Intended Small Refiner Compliance Options by Number of Refineries and
High Sulfur Distillate Fuel Production
Option
1.
2.
3.
4.
Description
Delay 500 ppm NRLM Production
Delay 15 ppm NRLM Production
NRLM Credit Option
NRLM Diesel/Gasoline Compliance Option
Number of
Refineries
9
7
4
5
2003 High Sulfur Distillate
Fuel Production
(thousand bbls/day)
37
22
9
18
B. PADD Analysis
This section presents information specific to each PADD. Tables 5 and 6 show,
by PADD, the number of refineries producing 15 and/or 500 ppm diesel fuel for 2010
(from June 1 through December 31) and 2014 (from June 1 through December 31). The
total number of refineries producing diesel fuel decreases by 6 from 2010 to 2014. In
2010, 26 refineries were using flexibilities in the rules (producing 500 ppm LM diesel
fuel, producing 500 ppm NR diesel fuel using NRLM credits, small refiner flexibilities)
to produce some or all 500 ppm diesel fuel. However, by June 1, 2014, all of these
refineries will only be producing 15 ppm diesel fuel and/or heating oil, or will have
exited the diesel fuel market.
Tables 7 and 8 show, by PADD, production of 15 ppm and 500 ppm total diesel
fuel for 2010 (from June 1 through December 31) and 2014 (from June 1 through
December 31), and Figure 4 illustrates the average production of 15 ppm and 500 ppm
total diesel fuel by PADD from June 1, 2010 through December 31, 2014. Tables 7 and :
show that from 2010 through 2014, projected total diesel fuel production increases in all
PADDs.
11
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IV. NRLM Summary Data
Table 5.
Projected Number of Highway and NRLM Diesel Fuel Refineries by PADD for 2010
PADD
# refineries producing diesel fuel
# refineries at 100% 15 ppm
# refineries at 100% 500 ppm
# refineries with 15/500 ppm mix
1
11
9
0
2
2
24
20
0
4
3
43
33
3
7
4
15
10
1
4
5
25
20
2
3
Total U.S.
118
92
6
20
Table 6.
Projected Number of Highway and NRLM Diesel Fuel Refineries by PADD for 2014b
PADD
# refineries producing diesel fuel
# refineries at 100% 15 ppm
# refineries at 100% 500 ppm
# refineries with 15/500 ppm mix
1
11
11
0
0
2
24
24
0
0
3
40
40
0
0
4
14
14
0
0
5
23
23
0
0
Total U.S.
112
112
0
0
Table 7.
Projected Production of (Highway + NRLM) Diesel Fuel by PADD for 2010
PADD
Total 15 ppm (highway + NRLM), bbls/day
Total 500 ppm (highway + NRLM), bbls/day
Total 15 ppm and 500 ppm total (highway + NRLM),
bbls/day
1
308,667
5,326
313,993
2
903,856
29,387
933,243
3
1,773,032
91,692
1,864,724
4
176,460
9,437
185,897
5
494,545
24,056
518,600
Total
U.S.
3,656,561
159,897
3,816,458
Table 8.
Projected Production of (Highway + NRLM) Diesel Fuel by PADD for 2014b
PADD
Total 15 ppm (highway + NRLM), bbls/day
Total 500 ppm (highway + NRLM), bbls/day
Total 15 ppm and 500 ppm total (highway + NRLM),
bbls/day
1
391,300
0
391,300
2
1,067,790
0
1,067,790
3
1,974,322
0
1,974,322
4
186,996
0
186,996
5
534,477
0
534,477
Total
U.S.
4,154,886
0
4,154,886
12
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IV. NRLM Summary Data
Figure 4. Projected (Highway+NRLM) Diesel Fuel Production by PADD, 2010-2014
-- 5,000,000
^ 4,500,000
jfl 4,000,000
° 3,500,000
3 £ 3,000,000
Di -o
2 « 2,500,000
+ -Q
1
O)
2,000,000
1 ,500,000
1 ,000,000
500,000
• PADD 5
DPADD4
DPADD3
• PADD 2
DPADD1
2010
2011
2012 2013
Year
2014a 2014b
More detailed information for each PADD is shown below in Tables 9 through
13.
13
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IV. NRLM Summary Data
1. PADD1
Reported totals for all PADD 1 refineries and importers are summarized below in
Table 9. Table 9 shows that for 2010, 11 refineries produced approximately 314,000
bbls/day total (15 ppm and 500 ppm sulfur) diesel fuel. Nine refineries reported they
produced all of their diesel fuel containing 15 ppm sulfur or less in 2010, and 2 refineries
reported they intend to produce some 500 ppm NRLM diesel fuel between 2010 and
2014. Table 9 also shows that total diesel fuel production in PADD 1 is projected to
increase by approximately 77,000 bbls/day from 2010 through 2014.
Table 9
PADD 1 Diesel Fuel Data: 2010-2014
Year
# refineries producing diesel fuel
# refineries at 100% 15 ppm
# refineries at 100% 500 ppm
# refineries with 15/500 ppm mix
Total 1 5 ppm (bbls/day)
Total 500 ppm (bbls/day)
Total 15 ppm and 500 ppm (bbls/day)
2010
11
9
0
2
308,667
5,326
313,993
2011
11
9
0
2
357,181
8,857
366,038
2012
11
9
0
2
388,562
3,899
392,461
2013
11
10
0
1
390,943
357
391,300
2014a
11
10
0
1
390,943
357
391,300
2014b
11
11
0
0
391,300
0
391,300
14
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IV. NRLM Summary Data
2. PADD 2
The reported totals for all PADD 2 refineries are summarized below in Table 10.
Table 10 shows that for 2010, 24 refineries produced approximately 933,000 bbls/day
total (15 ppm and 500 ppm sulfur) diesel fuel. Twenty refineries reported they produced
all of their diesel fuel containing 15 ppm sulfur or less in 2010, and 4 refineries reported
they intend to produce some 500 ppm NRLM diesel fuel between 2010 and 2014. Table
10 also shows that total diesel fuel production in PADD 2 is projected to increase by
approximately 135,000 bbls/day from 2010 through 2014.
Table 10.
PADD 2 Diesel Fuel Data: 2010-2014
Year
# refineries producing diesel fuel
# refineries at 100% 15 ppm
# refineries at 100% 500 ppm
# refineries with 15/500 ppm mix
Total 1 5 ppm (bbls/day)
Total 500 ppm (bbls/day)
Total 15 ppm and 500 ppm (bbls/day)
2010
24
20
0
4
903,856
29,387
933,243
2011
24
20
0
4
1,012,800
23,963
1,036,762
2012
24
20
0
4
1,017,086
17,572
1,034,658
2013
24
23
0
1
1,070,671
4,915
1,075,586
2014a
24
23
0
1
1,074,937
4,752
1,079,689
2014b
24
24
0
0
1,067,790
0
1,067,790
15
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IV. NRLM Summary Data
3.
PADD3
Reported totals for all PADD 3 refineries are summarized below in Table 11.
Table 11 shows that for 2010, 43 refineries produced 1.86 million bbls/day total (15 ppm
and 500 ppm sulfur) diesel fuel. Thirty three refineries reported they produced all of their
diesel fuel containing 15 ppm sulfur or less in 2010, and 10 refineries reported they
intend to produce some 500 ppm NRLM diesel fuel between 2010 and 2014. Table 11
also shows that total diesel fuel production in PADD 3 is projected to increase by
approximately 110,000 bbls/day from 2010 through 2014, even though 2 refineries plan
to exit the diesel fuel market by January 1, 2014, and another refinery plans to exit the
diesel fuel market by June 1, 2014.
Table 11.
PADD 3 Diesel Fuel Data: 2010-2014
Year
# refineries producing diesel fuel
# refineries at 100% 15 ppm
# refineries at 100% 500 ppm
# refineries with 15/500 ppm mix
Total 1 5 ppm (bbls/day)
Total 500 ppm (bbls/day)
Total 1 5 ppm and 500 ppm (bbls/day)
2010
43
33
3
7
1,773,032
91,692
1,864,724
2011
43
34
4
5
1,915,927
87,168
2,003,094
2012
43
36
3
4
1,949,210
48,521
1,997,732
2013
43
38
3
2
1,954,247
20,571
1,974,819
2014a
41
38
1
2
1,956,822
16,381
1,973,203
2014b
40
40
0
0
1,974,322
0
1,974,322
16
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IV. NRLM Summary Data
4. PADD 4
Reported totals for all PADD 4 refineries are summarized below in Table 12. Table 12
shows that 15 refineries produced approximately 186,000 bbls/day total (15 ppm and 500
ppm sulfur) diesel fuel in 2010. Ten refineries reported they produced all of their diesel
fuel containing 15 ppm sulfur or less in 2010, and 5 refineries reported they intend to
produce some 500 ppm NRLM diesel fuel between 2010 and 2014. Table 12 also shows
that total diesel fuel production in PADD 4 is projected to increase by approximately
1,000 bbls/day from 2010 through 2014, even though one refinery plans to exit the diesel
fuel market by January 1, 2012.
Table 12.
PADD 4 Diesel Fuel Data: 2010-2014
Year
# refineries producing diesel fuel
# refineries at 100% 15 ppm
# refineries at 100% 500 ppm
# refineries with 15/500 ppm mix
Total 1 5 ppm (bbls/day)
Total 500 ppm (bbls/day)
Total 15 ppm and 500 ppm (bbls/day)
2010
15
10
1
4
176,460
9,437
185,897
2011
15
10
1
4
170,782
13,173
183,955
2012
14
10
0
4
175,087
5,903
180,991
2013
14
13
0
1
187,238
500
187,738
2014a
14
13
0
1
186,582
500
187,082
2014b
14
14
0
0
186,996
0
186,996
17
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IV. NRLM Summary Data
5. PADD 5
Reported totals for all refineries in PADD 5 are summarized below in Table 13.
Table 13 shows that for 2010, 25 refineries produced approximately 519,000 bbls/day
total (15 ppm and 500 ppm sulfur) diesel fuel. Twenty refineries reported they produced
all of their diesel fuel containing 15 ppm sulfur or less in 2010, and 5 refineries reported
they intend to produce some 500 ppm NRLM diesel fuel between 2010 and 2014. Table
13 also shows that total diesel fuel production in PADD 5 is projected to increase by
approximately 16,000 bbls/day from 2010 through 2014, even though one refinery plans
to exit the diesel fuel market by January 1, 2013, and another refinery plans to exit the
market by June 1, 2014.
Table 13.
PADD 5 Diesel Fuel Data: 2010-2014
Year
# refineries producing diesel fuel
# refineries at 100% 15 ppm
# refineries at 100% 500 ppm
# refineries with 15/500 ppm mix
Total 1 5 ppm (bbls/day)
Total 500 ppm (bbls/day)
Total 1 5 ppm and 500 ppm (bbls/day)
2010
25
20
2
3
494,545
24,056
518,600
2011
25
20
2
3
496,117
26,406
522,523
2012
25
20
2
3
514,617
24,025
538,642
2013
24
20
1
3
542,213
9,787
551,999
2014a
24
21
1
2
534,799
6,215
541,014
2014b
23
23
0
0
534,477
0
534,477
' Alaska refineries are included in this analysis
18
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IV. NRLM Summary Data
C. Comparison of 2010 and 2011 NRLM Pre-Compliance Reports
Total reported production of 15 ppm and 500 ppm diesel fuel in the 2011 pre-
compliance reports decreased, compared to the 2010 pre-compliance reports. Table 14
shows the production of 15 ppm and 500 ppm diesel fuel from the 2010 and 2011 pre-
compliance reports for 2010 (from June 1 to December 31). Total production of diesel
fuel from the 2011 reports was approximately 110,000 bbls/day less than total production
from the 2010 reports. Reported production decreased in PADDs 1, 2 and 3, while
reported production increased in PADDs 4 and 5.
Table 14.
Projected Production of (Highway + NRLM) Diesel Fuel by PADD for 2010
PADD
2010 NRLM reports
Total 1 5 ppm, bbls/day
Total 500 ppm, bbls/day
Total 15 ppm and 500 ppm , bbls/day
2011 NRLM reports
Total 1 5 ppm, bbls/day
Total 500 ppm, bbls/day
Total 15 ppm and 500 ppm , bbls/day
Change in reported production, bbls/day
1
313,328
5,673
319,000
308,667
5,326
313,993
-5,008
2
922,541
26,834
949,375
903,856
29,387
933,243
-16,132
3
1,857,510
100,340
1,957,850
1,773,032
91,692
1,864,724
-93,125
4
170,443
13,039
183,482
176,460
9,437
185,897
2,415
5
483,814
32,715
516,529
494,545
24,056
518,600
2,071
Total
U.S.
3,747,634
178,602
3,926,236
3,656,561
159,897
3,816,458
-109,779
Table 15 shows the projected production of 15 and 500 ppm diesel fuel from the
2010 and 2011 pre-compliance reports for 2014 (from June 1 to December 31). Total
production of diesel fuel from the 2011 reports was approximately 139,000 bbls/day less
than the total production from the 2010 reports. Reported production decreased in
PADDs 3 and 4, while reported production increased in PADDs 1, 2 and 5. However,
projected total diesel fuel production in 2015 is still expected to be sufficient to meet
demand. Projected total diesel fuel production in 2014 is 4.15 million bbls/day,
compared to projected total diesel fuel demand from AEO 2011 of 3.86 million bbls/day
in 2015.
19
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IV. NRLM Summary Data
Table 15.
Projected Production of (Highway + NRLM) Diesel Fuel by PADD for 2014b
PADD
2010 NRLM reports
Total 1 5 ppm, bbls/day
Total 500 ppm, bbls/day
Total 15 ppm and 500 ppm , bbls/day
2011 NRLM reports
Total 1 5 ppm, bbls/day
Total 500 ppm, bbls/day
Total 15 ppm and 500 ppm , bbls/day
Change in reported production, bbls/day
1
363,277
0
363,277
391,300
0
391,300
28,024
2
1,031,688
0
1,031,688
1,067,790
0
1,067,790
36,103
3
2,202,372
0
2,202,372
1,974,322
0
1,974,322
-228,050
4
189,234
0
189,234
186,996
0
186,996
-2,238
5
507,334
0
507,334
534,477
0
534,477
27,143
Total
U.S.
4,293,905
0
4,293,905
4,154,886
0
4,154,886
-139,019
20
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V. Appendix
Appendix - List of Acronyms
bbls/day
bpcd
EIA
EPA
FR
LM
NR
NRLM
PADD
ppm
ULSD
AEO
barrels per day
barrels per calendar day
Energy Information Administration
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Federal Register
Locomotive and Marine
Nonroad
Nonroad, Locomotive, and Marine
Petroleum Administration for Defense District
Parts per million
Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel
Annual Energy Outlook
21
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