United Statu
Environmental Science Advisory EPA-SAB-EEC-9B-OM
Protection Agency Board (1400F) May 1336
5-EPA AN SAB REPORT: FUTURE ISSUES IN
ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING
REPORT ON FUTURE ISSUES AND
CHALLENGES IN ENVIRONMENTAL
ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY BY
THE ENVIRONMENTAL
ENGINEERING COMMITTEE
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UNITED STATES ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20460
May 25, 1995 OFFICE OF THEADMNSTRATOR
SCIENCE ADVISORY BOARD
EPA-SAB-EEC-95-004
Honorable Carol M. Browner
Administrator
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
401 M Street, SW
Washington DC 20460
Re: Environmental Engineering Futures Report
Dear Ms. Browner:
In July 1992, the Science Advisory Board (SAB) began an initiative, termed the
Environmental Futures Project, to advise the Agency on ways to identify future
environmental problems and provide the SAB's perspective on emerging environmental
issues. The SAB Executive Committee accepted the request and formed the Environmental
Futures Committee (EFC) to direct the effort The EFC in turn requested the standing
committees of the SAB to address the charge for areas of their particular expertise and
interest, and to produce separate reports which would supplement the overall report on
Environmental Futures to be written by the EFC.
The Environmental Engineering Committee (EEC), in response to the opportunity
provided by the EFC, chose four issues related to engineering that may emerge in the
future. The EEC developed the drivers, scenarios, consequences and recommendations for
Agency actions related to each issue. The EEC also developed an approach by which
EPA could regularly scan the horizon for future issues. This approach was used in part
by the EEC to conduct a supplemental search for potential emerging issues.
Rocycted/RecycJabie
prfnledwtlhSoy/CWMta h* on paper that
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The four issues developed in detail are:
a) Issuei How can EPA actions foster environmental quality protection and
improvements while helping to assure sustained industrial development in an
increasingly competitive manufacturing economy?
Rgcommenjlition! Agency decisions concerning clean production technologies
should be carefully constructed and balanced so that there are benefits both to
the environment and to U.S. industrial competitiveness. Flexibility in
achieving the desired risk reduction at a facility could promote deployment of
cleaner technologies to replace end-of-pipe control technologies,
b) |pie: How can EPA best respond to increasing societal pressures for the
redevelopment of urban industrial sites and remediated land while serving
urban needs for environmental protection?
Recommendation: The Agency should ensure that appropriate technology is
available and/or deployed to redevelop urban contaminated industrial sites and
remediated land; this should be done in a manner that avoids significant
environmental exposures and meets inteacity needs for development, commerce
and conservation.
c) Issue! How can the Agency prepare to address threats posed to human health
and natural resources by transient phenomena of natural origin in the face of
increasing population and land-use pressures?
Recommendation: The Agency should strengthen its capability and readiness to
address potential environmental consequences of natural disasters associated
with transient phenomena such as riverine floods considering trends in
population growth and inappropriate land use. Associated planning and
preparedness can help minimize the potential adverse impacts on natural
resources and human health.
d) Issue: How can the Agency address insufficiency in the core technical
competencies needed to address both existing and future environmental
challenges? Core competencies can be defined as the essential and distinct
scientific and technical capabilities that enable the EPA to fulfill its current and
future missions.
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Rgcoflimendation: The Agency should systematically identify and examine the
essential and distinct scientific and engineering capabilities (core competencies)
needed to address technical aspects of its present and expected future mission
and strengthen them where needed.
This report describes these issues, their drivers, and their adverse consequences that
could follow without implementation of its recommendations or other mitigating actions.
Based on its experience, the Committee developed a suggested methodology which it
believes EPA should seriously consider, when it seeks to identify and analyze futures issues.
The methodology should consist of the following elements:
a) EPA should establish "lookout" panels involving experts within and outside the
Agency,
b) Panelists should routinely scan their fields to provide observations about new
or intensifying issues and their consequences.
c) EPA staff should collect these observations then refer them back to the other
panelists for comment.
d) Staff and panelists should select candidate issues using agreed upon criteria.
e) EPA should analyze the selected issues in terms of any existing scenarios and
EPA goal statements.
f) EPA, with input from panelists, should recommend near-term actions based on
projected futures.
The Committee also identified eight possible additional representative technological
concerns regarding the future that warrant EPA attention;
a) Fossil fuel depletion;
b) Major industrial accidents and/or terrorist activities;
c) Accelerating deterioration of urban infrastructure (e.g., pipelines for
water, sewage, and fuels);
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d) Extremely high cost-benefit ratios of some environmental management
strategies;
e) Recognition that environmentally contaminated reservoirs, such as
contaminated sediments, may pose greater risk than existing point
discharges;
f) Recognition that available technology for the control of some newly
recognized pathogens in drinking water may be inadequate;
g) Recognition that electromagnetic radiation from new sources may be a
health threat;
h) Recognition that inappropriately deployed industrial-ecology concepts can lead
to increased human and ecosystem exposures.
The SAB EEC appreciates the opportunity to scan the environmental future related to
engineering and looks forward to your reply to the resulting recommen-dations.
Sincerely,
levieve M. Matanoski, Chair
Executive Committee
r. Isnwar P. Muiarka, Chair
Environmental Engineering Committee
futures Committee
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ABSTRACT
In a July 16, 1993 memorandum, EPA asked the Science Advisory Board
(SAB) to develop a procedure for conducting a periodic scan of the future horizon;
to identify some important possible future developments; and to carry out in-depth
examination of environmental impacts. This report is the response of the
Environmental Engineering Committee (EEC) to that request.
In addition to making methodological suggestions, the EEC has
recommendations for four issues examined in depth. First, Agency policy options
concerning clean technologies need to be carefully constructed and balanced to
benefit both the environment and U.S. industrial competitiveness. Second, EPA
should ensure development and use of appropriate technology to enable the
redevelopment of urban contaminated industrial sites and remediated land. Third,
EPA should strengthen its capability and readiness to address potential
environmental consequences of natural disasters associated with transient events
such as riverine floods in the face of trends in population growth and land use.
Fourth, EPA should systematically identify and examine the essential and distinct
scientific and engineering capabilities (core competencies) needed to address
technical aspects of its present and expected future mission and strengthen them
where needed.
Keywords: lookout panels, sustainability, disasters, redevelopment of urban land,
core competencies
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U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
NOTICE
This report has been written as part of the activities of the Science
Advisory Board, a public advisory group providing extramural scientific
information and advice to the Administrator and other officials of the
Environmental Protection Agency, The Board is structured to provide balanced,
expert assessment of scientific matters related to problems facing the Agency.
This report has not been reviewed for approval by the Agency and, hence, the
contents of this report do not necessarily represent the views and policies of the
Environmental Protection Agency, nor of other agencies in the Executive Branch
of the Federal government, nor does mention of trade names or commercial
products constitute a recommendation for use,
Seven reports were produced from the Environmental Futures Project of the
SAB. The titles are listed below:
a) Environmental Futures Committee EPA-SAB-EC-95-007
[Title: "Beyond the Horizon: Protecting the Future with Foresight,"
Prepared by the Environmental Futures Committee of the Science Advisory
Board's Executive Committee.]
b) Environmental Futures Committee EPA-SAB-EC-95-Q07A
[Title: Futures Methods and Issues, Technical Annex to the Report entitled
"Beyond the Horizon: Protecting the Future with Foresight," Prepared by
the Environmental Futures Committee of the Science Advisory Board's
Executive Committee.]
c) Drinking Water Committee EPA-SAB-DWC-95-Q02
[Title: " Safe Drinking Water: Future Trends and Challenges," Prepared by
the Drinking Water Committee, Science Advisory Board.]
d) Ecological Processes and Effects Committee EPA-SAB-EPEC-95-003
[Title: "Ecosystem Management: Imperative for a Dynamic World,"
Prepared by the Ecological Processes and Effects Committee, Science
Advisory Board.]
e) Environmental Engineering Committee EPA-SAB-EEC-95-004
[Title: "Review of Environmental Engineering Futures Issues," Prepared by
the Environmental Engineering Committee, Science Advisory Board,]
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f) Indoor Air and Total Human Exposure Committee EPA-SAB-IAQ-95-005
[Title; "Human Exposure Assessment: A Guide to Risk Banking, Risk
Reduction and Research Planning," Prepared by the Indoor Air and Total
Human Exposure Committee, Science Advisory Board,]
g) Radiation Advisory Committee EPA-SAB-RAC-95-006
[Title; "Report on Future Issues and Challenges in the Study of
Environmental Radiation, with a Focus Toward Future Institutional
Readiness by the Environmental Protection Agency," Prepared by the
Radiation Environmental Futures Subcommittee of the Radiation Advisory
Committee, Science Advisory Board.]
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U.S, ENVffiONMEINTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
Science Advisory Board
Environmental Engineering Committee
Members and Consultants
CHAIRMAN
Dr. Ishwar P. Murarka, Business Development Manager, Environmental and Vital
Issues Business Unit, Electric Power Research Institute, 3412 Hillview Avenue,
Palo Alto, CA
Dr. Linda M. Abriola, Associate Professor, Dept. of Civil and Environmental
Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI
Mr, Richard A. Conway, Senior Corporate Fellow Union Carbide Corporation, So,
Charleston, WV
Dr, James H, Johnson, Jr., Professor and Chairman, Dept. of Civil Engineering,
Howard University, Washington, DC
Dr. Wayne M, Kachel, Director, Martin Marietta Corporation, Oak Ridge, TN
Dr. Jo Ann Lighty, Associate Professor, Department of Chemicals and Fuels
Engineering, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT
Dr. James W. Mercer, President, GeoTrans, Inc., Sterling, VA
Dr. Frederick G. Pohland ^ Weidlein Chair of Environmental Engineering
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Pittsburgh,
Pittsburgh, PA
Dr. Robert B. Pojasek, Corporate Vice President/Environmental Programs, GEI
Consultants, Inc., Winchester, MA
Dr. Wm. Randall Seeker, ^ Senior Vice President, Energy & Environmental
Research Corp., Irvine, CA
Dr. Walter M. Shaub, (c) President, CQRRE, Inc., Reston, VA
CONSULTANTS
Mr. Theodore J. Gordon, (d) Retired, 23 SaUfish Road, Vero Beach, FL
IV
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Dr. Hilary I. Inyang, President, Geoenvironmental Design Research, Inc.,
Fairfax, VA
Mrs, Judith. M. Mullins, Environmental and Energy Staff, General Motel's
Corporation, Detroit, MI
Ms. Lynne Preslo, R.G., Vice President, ICF Kaiser Engineer, Oakland, CA
Dr. C, Herb Ward, Foyt Family Chair of Engineering and Director, Energy &
Environmental Systems Institute, Rice University, Houston, TX
DESIGNATED FEDERAL OFFICER
Mrs. Kathleen W. Conway, U.S. EPA, Science Advisory Board, 401 M Street S.W.,
Washington, D.C,
STAFF SECRETARY
Mrs, Dorothy M. Clark, U.S, EPA, Science Advisory Board, 401 M Street S.W.,
Washington, D.C.
c) author of Appendix 1:
e) author of Appendk 2;
a) author of Appendix 3:
b) author of Appendix 4:
d) author of Appendk 5:
Manufacturing SustainabiUty
Redevelopment of Industrial Sites and Remediated Land
Transient Phenomena
Core Competency
Futures Methodology
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY , ....... 1
1.1 Background 1
1.1.1 Belevant Activities 1
1.1.2 The Process Used ,,...,... 1
1,2 Summary of Findings for the Four Developed Issues , . 2
1.2,1 How can EPA actions foster environmental quality 3
1.2.2 How can EPA best respond to increasing societal
pressures for the redevelopment of urban industrial sites
and remediated land while serving urban needs for
environmental protection? 3
1.2.3 How can the Agency prepare to address threats posed to
human health and natural resources by transient
phenomena of natural origin in the face of increasing
population and land use pressures? 4
1.2.4 How can the Agency address insufficiency in the core
technical competencies needed to address both existing
and future environmental challenges? Core competencies
can be defined as the essential and distinct scientific and
technical capabilities that enable the EPA to fulfill its
current and future missions 5
1.3 Other Possible Scenarios 5
1.4 Lessons Learned on Methodology 6
2. INTRODUCTION .... 7
2.1 The Charge 7
2.2 Committee Process 7
2.3 Coordination 8
3. OUTPUT OF THE PEOCESS 9
3.1 Methodology 9
3.1.1 "Expert panel" Approach and "Brainstormmg" , 9
3.1.2 Narrowing the List of Issues 9
3.1,3 Trends, drivers, scenarios, consequences and mitigation
analyses 10
3.1.4 Guidance 12
3.2 Eesults 13
3.2.1 Issue #1: Environmental protection and manufacturing
sustainabilitgr ,,,,,. 13
3,2,2 Issue 2: Redevelopment of industrial sites and
remediated land 16
3.2.3 Issue 3: Transient Events 19
3.2.4 Issue 4: Core competencies ...,,,, 21
3.3. A Futures Methodology Approach ....,,,..,,,,. 23
3.3,1 Bramstorming and Criteria-based Selections 24
vi
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3.3,2 Selecting an Approach 26
3.3.3 A Candidate Futures Issues Analysis Approach ........ 27
3.3.4 Pilot Test of Issue Identification 27
4. SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS . 29
4.1 Remarks specific to issues analyzed , , , , , 29
4.2 Other findings 29
4.3 General Remarks 30
5. REFERENCES ............... R-l
vn
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SCUTIVE SUMMARY
1.1 Background
1.1.1 Relevant Activities
In a July 16, 1993 memo to Administrator Browner, Mr. David Gardiner,
Assistant Administrator, Office of Policy Planning and Evaluation (OPPE),
requested that the Science Advisory Board (SAB) assist in the continued
development of EPA's capacity to anticipate environmental problems, issues and
opportunities. The SAB accepted this request and established an SAB Committee,
the Environmental Futures Committee (EFC), to undertake this effort. The EFC
was responsible for producing an overall report. Each of the SAB standing
committees were invited to contribute in their areas of concern. The
Environmental Engineering Committee (EEC) of the SAB accepted this assignment
and undertook the following charge:
a) develop a procedure for conducting scans of possible future
developments that will affect environmental quality and the nation's
ability to protect the environment;
b) identify important possible future developments;
c) select a limited number of possible future developments for in-depth
examination;
d) draw implications for EPA and recommend actions for addressing
them.
This is an EEC consensus report. To stimulate ideas for the report,
individual authors prepared background papers on each major issue discussed in
the consensus portion of the EEC report. The EEC incorporated some, but not
all, material from the appendices in this report.
1.1.2 The Process Used
The EEC used a multi-step process, including:
a) Brainstorming by EEC members and consultants to identify about 30
environmental issues related to technology development that could
become increasingly important in the next 5-30 years.
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b) Selection of four important future environmental issues for further
discussion and writing:
1) the impact of EPA striving to balance environmental protection
and sustainable manufacturing
2) societal pressures for the redevelopment of urban industrial
sites and remediated land;
3) threats posed to human health and natural resources by
transient phenomena of natural origin; e.g., riverine floods; and
4) EPA core technical (scientific and engineering, inclusive of
research) competencies.
c) Examination of each of the four issues in terms of;
1) the current situation;
2) driving influences or trends;
3) future scenarios;
4) key findings, by scenario analyses; and
5) opportunities to mitigate consequences of adverse scenario
outcomes and encourage positive outcomes.
The degree of analysis and assessment needed to rank the issues was considered
to be beyond the scope of this Committee effort. However, the four issues selected
were of sufficient merit to meet the project objectives,
Concomitant]y» the EEC developed an approach by which EPA could
regularly scan the horizon for similar emerging issues. It then conducted a
supplemental search for emerging scenarios and identified several more examples.
1.2 Summary of Findings for the Four Developed Issues
The following major findings for each of the four selected issues are the
basis for the Committee's recommendations to EPA.
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1.2,1 How can EPA actions foster environmental quality protection and
Improvements while assuring sustained industrial development in an Increasingly
competitive manufacturing economy?
OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) member
nations increasingly employ a negotiated compliance style of regulation that
establishes environmental targets and enables flexibility in how they will be
achieved, (Government Policy Options to Encourage Cleaner Production and
Products in the 1990s (OECD, 1992)). This approach may also promote
opportunities for source reduction in the U.S., encourage development of
cleaner technologies, and may improve industrial competitiveness. Therefore,
the EEC recommends that EPA consider this approach in developing policy
options concerning clean technologies; options need to be carefully constructed
and balanced to benefit both the environment and U.S. industrial
competitiveness.
Increase in industrial production can increase wastes. Continued heavy
reliance upon command and control, end-of-pipe or specified regulatory compliance
requirements on a single-medium, single-point source basis can adversely impact
the development and deployment of the cleaner technologies. One instance in
which this can occur is when a facility wishes to completely eliminate a point-
source air emission by installing a new process, but receives no emission credit for
use elsewhere in the facility for reducing emissions well below standards required
by regulations. Cleaner technologies are expected to play a crucial role in
achieving reductions in pollution sources. Small- and medium-sized enterprises
find it difficult to compete, comply with regulatory requirements, and invest in the
development of cleaner technologies,
1.2.2 How can EPA best respond to increasing societal pressures for the
redevelopment of urban industrial sites and remediated land while serving urban
needs for envkonniental protection?
The scarcity and high cost of land in urban areas, coupled with
increasing urbanization of the U.S. population, will increase the pressure to
redevelop abandoned industrial sites and remediated land. Therefore, the EEC
recommends EPA consider policies that encourage efficient and timely
redevelopment of such sites in an environmentally responsible manner that
prevent adverse exposures. Such policies nave the potential to improve the
quality of the urban environment, promote commerce, and postpone or reduce
development of other land resources.
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Many of the abandoned industrial sites and remediated land, which are not
used currently, will need to be redeveloped for use by the growing population in
metropolitan areas. Due to perceived and/or real risks in using these lands,
redevelopment of these sites is not currently occurring at a pace appropriate for
future needs. There is a need to examine both the technical and the policy issues
so that redevelopment of these lands can be achieved without adverse exposures to
contaminants. EPA has the opportunity to make a concerted effort to formulate
policies and develop technical support schemes for integrating site redevelopment
issues into current and future regulatory actions.
1.2.3 How can the Agency prepare to address threats posed to human health
and natural resources by transient phenomena of natural origin in the face of
increasing population and land use pressures?
Transient phenomena, such as riverine floods, can adversely affect the
environment and public health much more than do steady state situations.
Changes in demography likely will increase the number of people affected by
such phenomena. Associated planning can prepare and minimize the potential
adverse impacts on natural resources and human health. Therefore, the EEC
recommends that EPA strengthen Its capability and readiness to address
potential environmental consequences of natural disasters associated with such
transient phenomena and assume a participatory role with other responsible
agencies.
In the absence of significant global climate change, there is no evidence that
the frequency of natural disasters will differ significantly in the future from that
of past occurrences. However, population growth, capital investment, and
increased intensity of land use and management in affected areas have led to
significantly increased potential for damage caused by natural disasters.
Recent events, for example, hurricane damage and extreme cold weather in
the eastern seaboard states,* earthquakes, wild-fires and mudslides in western
coastal regions; and unprecedented flooding in central and southeastern regions of
the country, all severely impacted human health and the environment. Given
increasing intensity of land use and population growth in susceptible areas,
potential consequences could be severe unless means to anticipate, prevent or
mitigate the environmental consequences of natural disasters are established. In
its review, the EEC found little evidence that the environmental aspects of natural
disaster events are being comprehensively addressed in a prospective and
coordinated manner.
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1.2.4 How can the Agency address insufficiency in the core technical
competencies needed to address both existing and future environmental challenges?
Core competencies can be defined as the essential and distinct scientific and
technical capabilities that enable the EPA to fulfill its current and future missions.
Core competencies are the essential and distinct scientific and technical
capabilities that enable an organization to fulfill its current and future
missions. In the future, the Agency will he under increasing pressure to
address more efficiently multi-media pollutants from all sources. The Agency
also will be required to respond faster and effectively to broader enviromnental
issues with limited total resources. Therefore, the EEC recommends EPA
systematically identify its essential core competencies to do this work and
strengthen, them where needed.
Responding to legislative mandates is necessary, but will become
increasingly difficult if maintenance and improvement of the underlying in-house
core competencies are neglected. Regarding future challenges, EPA should
examine present technical core competencies in light of its understanding of future
needs and, as warranted, modify and/or augment present capabilities so that EPA
will have the necessary internal expertise to address future needs,
1,3 Other Possible Scenarios
Using part of the Lookout Panel approach described in Section 3.3.3 below,
the Committee identified eight additional concerns about the future to which EPA
should give serious attention. These are:
a) Will fossil fuel depletion lead to use of resources having a
greater potential for environmental contamination and habitat
loss?
b) Will major industrial accidents and/or terrorist activities
impacting the environment become major problems for the
Agency to address?
c) Will deterioration of urban infrastructure (pipelines for water,
sewage, and fuels) increase the potential for serious
environmental incidents?
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d) Will recognition of the high cost-benefit ratio of some
environmental management strategies lead to challenges of
EPA's programs?
e) Will environmental contaminant sinks, such as contaminated
sediments, be recognized as posing greater risk than existing
point-discharges?
f) Will conventional technology for the control of newly
recognized pathogens in drinking water be found to be
inadequate?
g) Will electromagnetic radiation become widely recognized as a
major health threat as new technologies increase sources and
exposure, and/or if evidence for adverse effects accumulates?
h) Will industrial-ecology concepts lead to misuse of wastes by
industrial/commercial sectors that cause more exposure
problems than solutions?
1.4 Lessons Learned on Methodology
The EEC became acquainted with various futures methodologies as it
developed this report. Based on this experience, the EEC recommends to EPA a
candidate future issues analysis approach that could be used to conduct continual
scans of the environmental horizon. The EPA should set up "Lookout Panels" in
areas of health, ecology, socioeconomics, and technology. Panelists would
periodically provide observations about new or intensifying issues. After
interaction and analysis, recommendations for near-term EPA actions would be
developed.
In this regard, EEC and EEC consultants served as principals in a test
exercise for the approach. Section 3.3 identifies screening elements for the
suggested futures approach that emerged from the test exercise.
Because many future developments pose environmental threats, the EEC
encourages EPA to further develop and implement methods for systematically
scanning the environmental horizon. Such methods wiU help EPA identify
important challenges at the earliest possible time, and could improve EPA
readiness both with regard to its ability to anticipate problematic issues and, as
necessary, to adopt appropriate strategies aimed at preventing or mitigating
possible adverse consequences.
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2* INTRODUCTION
2.1 The Charge
A July 16, 1993 memo from Mr, David Gardiner, Assistant Administrator
for the Office of Policy, Planning and Evaluation (OPPE) to EPA Administrator
Carol Browner requested that the Science Advisory Board (SAB) assist in the
continued development of EPA*s capacity to anticipate environmental problems,
issues and opportunities.
The SAB accepted the request, and formed an Environmental Futures
Committee (EFC) to lead the effort. The Futures Project appeared to be a logical
extension of the SAB's 1990 report, Reducing Risk (EPA, 1990), which stressed
the importance of identifying future potential risks to human health and the
environment.
The Environmental Futures Committee asked all the SAB Standing
Committees to assist with this effort by developing their own approaches, using
scientific and technical expertise to:
a) evaluate baseline information and trends, identifying issues that may
be expected fa the future to have increasing impacts on human health
and the environment;
b) focus on one or more relevant issues; and
c) suggest a procedure by which future environmental concerns can be
recognized at an early stage.
2.2 Committee Process
At its October 28-29, 1993 meeting, as described in Section 3, the EEC first
conducted a brainstorming session and then narrowed their deliberations to three
technical issues. A fourth, cross-cutting issue was added later, as was a
commentary on methodology. Initial writing assignments and schedules related to
completion of a draft report were established. Designated authors prepared
reports which addressed drivers, scenarios, consequences of scenarios, and
mitigation of potential impacts. Initially a subset of the EEC, the Environmental
Futures Writing Subcommittee (EFWS), was responsible for drafting the report.
However, as interactions with the EFC progressed, the report changed to an
extent that it became a product of the entire EEC.
The EEC then held three publicly announced conference calls followed by
public meetings in February and March, 1994. At these meetings the EEC
identified elements for the composite report, summarizing the process, outcomes,
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and recommendations, (The EEC members and involved consultants are shown in
the roster at the front of this report.) The EEC approved the assembled report
and submitted it to the EFC for review and vetting on behalf of the SAB
Executive Committee.
2.3 Coordination
Close coordination with the EPC was achieved by participation of the initial
writing-group chair and vice-chair in EFC meetings where they interacted with
invited "futurists" and other experts. Coordination with OPPE was achieved by
inviting representatives to attend EEC meetings and participate in conference
calls.
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3. OUTPUT OF THE PROCESS
S.I Methodology
After considering a number of options, the EEC settled on an approach to
its Futures Project which led to relatively rapid issue selection and a period for
preparing and discussing reports on the selected issues. The remainder of Section
3,1 discusses the EEC's initial approach.
3.1.1 "Expert panel" Approach and ^rainstormiag"
On October 28, 1993, the EEC identified future challenges with as-yet
unanticipated consequences. The discussions were free ranging, i.e., not restricted
to specific committee expertise. On October 29, 1993, after an opportunity for
reflection and further thought, the EEC re-visited the initial brainstorm list.
Using the collective expertise of the EEC, members developed an unprioritized
listing of issues that could present future challenges with possible surprises to the
Agency,
Subsequently, and with the help of a consultant more familiar with futures
work, the EEC ultimately arrived at—and recommends to others—a related, but
methodologically more formal, approach for issues selection, the elements of which
are discussed in Section 3,3 of this report.
3.1.2 Narrowing the List of Issues
Recognizing practical limits of time, expertise and resources, the EEC
developed the following "filtering" criteria to establish a set of issues to address via
subtask writing assignments:
a) Is this a new issue? (i.e., likely to necessitate new actions or changes
in what EPA is now doing)
b) Is the issue credible?
c) Does the issue focus on science/technology that can be effectively
addressed by expertise of the EEC?
d) Are there critical uncertainties that should be addressed?
e) Is the impact of the issue potentially large?
f) Are potential consequences understood?
g) Is the current infrastructure of environmental protection adequate to
address the issue?
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h) Is the issue redundant to others on the list, or can common issues be
categorized into one topical issue that includes the original issues?
By aggregating common issues under broader subject categories, applying screening
criteria, and further discussion, the EEC narrowed the original brainstormed list
to three. A fourth was added at the time of the first Subcommittee conference
call.
a) Issue #1: EPA's actions that could foster environmental quality
protection and improvements while assuring the sustained industrial
development in a competitive manufacturing economy.
b) Issue j£2: EPA's best response to increasing societal pressures for the
redevelopment of urban industrial sites and remediated land while
serving urban needs for environmental protection.
c) Issue #3; EPA's preparedness to address threats posed to human
health and natural resources by transient phenomena of natural
origin;
d) Issue #A: EPA's need to regularly evaluate core technical
competencies to address both existing and future environmental
challenges. Core competencies are defined as "the essential and
distinct scientific and technical capabilities that enable the EPA to
fulfill its current and future missions",
The BBC did not attribute an over-arching, prioritized importance to the
four selected issues to the exclusion of other potentially significant environmental
issues related to engineering and technology. Hence, the EEC recognized that
there no doubt are other issues of considerable importance to the Agency which
could have been addressed. Indeed, in the latter stages of its work, the EEC
identified eight additional future scenarios related to technology which should be
of concern to EPA (Table 4). A more comprehensive analysis and assessment by
EPA, beyond the scope of this effort, would be necessary to establish national
prioritization of these and other possible technological issues.
3.1.3 Trends, drivers, scenarios, consequences and mitigation analyses
A single author, at times using some material supplied by others, prepared
background reports for each issue. In developing the reports, authors relied on
their own expertise, consultations (with Agency staff, other SAB committee
members, and committee consultants), literature resources, Agency assistance
(material resources), and other resources.
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Attached as appendices are the individually authored background papers on
each major issue discussed in this consensus portion of the BBC report. This
material was moat useful in providing a starting point and stimulating ideas. The
EEC incorporated part, but not all of the concepts presented in the appendices in
this consensus report.
Appendix 1: Manufacturing Sustainability by Dr. Walter Shaub
Appendix 2: Eedevelopment of Industrial Sites and Remediated Land by Dr. Hilary
I. Inyang and Lynne Preslo
Appendix 3; Transient Phenomena by Dr. Frederick G. Pohland
Appendix 4: Core Competency by Dr. Wm. Randall Seeker
Appendix 5: Futures Methodology by Mr. Theodore J, Gordon
The efforts of these authors are very much appreciated.
The authors examined the issues in terms of drivers and trends associated
with drivers, (Information about drivers and trends specific to each issue can be
found in the appended individual reports.) Authors used these drivers and trends
to construct futures scenarios, expose consequences, and suggest methods of
mitigation,
a) Drivers.: identification of drivers (e.g., rate of waste generation) that
lead to potentially adverse human health and environmental impacts.
The authors identified drivers for each of the issues,
b) Trends: an analysis of current trends in activities that relate
ultimately to impacts to human health and the environment. The
analysis of each issue included an examination of current trends, and,
via scenario development, an examination of possible future trends.
c) Scenarios; models of plausible "futures" (e.g., what if current waste
generation rates continue unabated?) and possible impacts that can
arise due to the influence of drivers. Because the construction of
highly detailed scenarios that fully incorporate all possible drivers is
an extremely complex, subjective and time-consuming undertaking,
authors abstracted scenarios from literature resources or constructed
more simplified scenarios that were exemplary of possible drivers.
d) Consequences: consequences that arise due to potential impacts (e.g.,
unchecked contamination of land by generated wastes). To the extent
time and effort permitted, EEC authors carried out consequence
analysis, suggesting possible outcomes of various scenarios.
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e) Mtigatiojg.: analysis of potential impacts in order to identify means to
mitigate undesired consequences (e.g., means to prevent waste
generation). For mitigation analysis, BBC authors drew both on the
expertise of EEC members and consultants, as well as literature
resources.
3.1.4 Guidance
The authors configured and analyzed scenarios using the following EEC
guidelines.
a) Develop/utilize scenarios "possible" in a 5- or 30-year time frame and
for which Agency management preparation, if desirable, is a
reasonable expectation. For example, in the case of "transient
phenomena" there is no point in evaluating a scenario that envisages
the EPA having to deal with environmental consequences of a large
asteroid impact upon earth, as the consequences cannot be reasonably
addressed by EPA.
b) Scenarios should be "new", ie., they should be representative of
circumstances that could lead to environmental challenges that the
Agency has not yet adequately addressed or would not likely consider
at this time.
c) There should be logical reasons for constructing one scenario and not
another. The basis upon which the scenarios have been constructed
should be described and defensible. For example, examination of
currently available information concerning various driving variables
may be the basis for constructing scenarios.
An alternative approach may involve use of heuristic reasoning,
"scientific intuition" or some other plausible basis,
d) For each scenario constructed and evaluated, possible impacts that
could pose hazards to human health and the environment should be
identified. These impacts should be examined to understand possible
consequences that may arise when and if the impacts occur.
e) Ultimately, through construction and evaluation, scenarios should be
able to reveal the readiness, now and/or in the future, of the Agency
to implement desirable management practices that can mitigate or
reduce adverse consequences or produce benefits associated with the
selected scenarios.
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3.2 Results
The discussion below summarizes tlie issues studies.
3.2,1 Issue #1: Environmental protection and manufacturing sustainabiliiy
In its analysis, the EEC addressed both "sustainable development" that does
not lead to degradation of environmental quality and environmental protection
that does not lead to industrial uncompetitiveness. Governments at regional,
national and international levels—and the private sector—are responding to the
challenge of sustainability by looking for ways to address increasing threats to
environmental quality and industrial competitiveness-bath in the near- and long-
term.
3.2.1.1 Scenarios and drivers.
For this analysis, the background paper used by the EEC relied heavily on
Government Policy Options to Encourage Cleaner Production and Products in the
1990sf particularly the following text, which identifies key measures of
attainability (OECD, 1992).
"...the goals of industrial policy can be achieved while at the same
time improving (or at least maintaining) environmental quality and
respecting the finite nature of the resource base as a function of time.
In a national context, key measures of sustainability would appear to
be as follows:
o GDP per capita in constant currency units to increase over
time;
o ratio of GDP per capita to the quantity of a contaminant of
interest (e.g., NOx in the air, generation of organic liquid
wastes, inorganic heavy metals in water or products, pesticides
in soils, etc.) to increase over time at a greater rate than GDP
per capita over time, and the contaminants of interest should
decrease in absolute terms;
o the use of various raw materials (e.g., wood, water, iron ore,
oil, coal, etc.) to be such that their depletion over time is
reduced to an environmentally justifiable minimum,;
o output of marketable goods and services per employee (labor
productivity) to increase as a function of time;
o total job creation to increase over time; and
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o industry to be able to retain or improve its eompetitivity with
time if and when all of the foregoing conditions are met"
Appendix 1 examines the current situation, trends based on the current
situation, future scenarios based on possible future trends, the concept of
sustainability, and issues and challenges faced by the manufacturing sector of
industry and regulations. To explore future possible environmental problems that
pose challenges to realizing sustainable development, the author examined three
scenarios by comparing output data that described hazardous waste generation
over a period of several decades. One scenario assumed constant hazardous waste
intensities, a second assumed a high peak and fall off to a constant level, and a
third had a lower peak due to the poorest countries employing the cleanest of
existing technologies. Appendix 1 contains details.
A key finding was that to benefit both the environment and U.S.
industrial competitiveness in the global marketplace, Agency decisions
concerning clean technologies need to be carefully constructed and balanced.
One option found to be successful within the OECD is negotiated compliance.
In the U.S., this could include consideration of risk-reduction goals based on a
multi-media, entire-facility basis. Carefully conceived EPA efforts to conserve
resources and protect human health and the environment, and at the same
time promote clean technologies, production processes, and products, could meet
both desirable regulatory objectives and enhance U.S. industrial
competitiveness.
3.2.1.2 Discussion.
The EEC subscribes to the findings and recommendations of Reducing Bisk
(EPA, 1990). Its recommendations here should be read in the context of a desire
to foster risk reduction through pollution prevention, which includes cleaner
technologies.
Assuring environmental protection solely by the management of wastes
generated in the future poses significant problems for the Nation; mitigation
requires the development and deployment of cleaner technologies. The U.S. reEes
heavily upon command and control, end-of-pipe, specified compliance oriented
regulations. For reducing current emissions, continuation of this practice can lead
to expending more resources to achieve the same degree of protection then would
be needed if waste generation were reduced through the use of cleaner
technologies. Implementation of clean technologies should be encouraged by
specific incentives.
In the global marketplace, the U.S. share of end-of-pipe environmental
control technology is increasing. Data are not available to determine whether the
U.S. is having analogous success promoting cleaner technologies and production
processes (OTA, 1992). However, small- and medium-sized businesses, which form
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a substantial segment of the manufacturing industry, are experiencing growing
difficulties competing in the international marketplace.
EPA could adopt a strategy for environmental protection that emphasizes
the primacy of risk reduction, appropriate regulatory flexibility, willingness to
negotiate expectations among all stakeholders, and opportunities to improve
competitive positioning of American manufacturing industry in the global
marketplace. EPA might choose to negotiate more fully on how an industry will
meet risk-based levels, recognizing that an industry ought to have maximal
expertise about its own processes. For UJS, industries, the outcome of such a
strategy could be improved market share, strengthened ability to mitigate future
environmental threats, and promotion of source reduction. Ultimately,
environmental policy should recognize that the nation's environmental and
economic health are interrelated.
In all three scenarios analyzed by the author of Appendix 1, the quantities of
waste generated increased and it was difficult to achieve sustainability because;
a) The complexity, diffuseness and uncertainty of risks associated with
manufacturing technology, production processes and products are
increasing and the marketplace has globalized; and
b) Present trends in regulatory activity (e.g., single-media, "brightline"
standards for each source) could place U.S. industry in a less
competitive position in the future, with concurrent loss of jobs and
ability to renew capital stock needed to acquire cleaner technologies
and production processes (OECD, 1992; OTA, 1993; EPA, 1992).
EPA should consider establishing a vision of sustainability and adopt a
creative approach that both demands appropriate environmental performance and
promotes cleaner technologies.
3,2.1.3 Possible Agency Actions
To establish such a vision of sustainability, EPA could consider some of the
ideas for policy options discussed in the documents used in preparation of
Appendix 1:
a) Government Policy options to S$p(?urage Olganer. Production and
Products in the 1990S). Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development, Paris, 1992
b) ImprovingLl!e_cJhnQlpgy..Diffusion for Environmental Protection.
NACEPT, EPA, Washington, DC, 1992
c) Industry, Technologyand theJEnvironment - Competitive Challenges
and Business Opr^jcturjj.tie.8. OTA, Washington, DC, 1993.
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3.2.2 Issue 2; Redevelopment of industrial sites and remediated land.
The potential exposure of each segment of the U.S. population to
undesirable environmental stressors is location-specific. Therefore the rate of
growth and spatial distribution of population, within a given region have indirect
influences on environmental exposures to various sources of pollutants. Present
trends in urban land use restrictions will increase pressure to use abandoned
industrial and remediated sites. The prospect of human activity and occupancy at
such sites raises environmental and human health concerns.
Appendix 2 examines the current situation regarding abandoned industrial
sites and remediated land use, Agency regulatory policies and practices, trends in
redevelopment, future scenarios based on possible future population trends, issues
and challenges faced by urban planners in addressing land use requirements, and
the nature of and means to encourage appropriate redevelopment.
3.2,2,1 Scenarios and Drivers
Two scenarios were investigated. The major driving factors for/against land
redevelopment are population increase, socio-economic trade-offs, legal liability,
risk acceptability, and advances in technology.
In Scenario 1, inner city dwellers migrate to suburban areas and greener
sites. The driving factors are infrastructure decay in inner city areas, increase in
crime rates that may be influenced by higher unemployment rates in densely
populated centers, and greater availability of white-collar employment
opportunities in suburbs. This scenario assumes that the middle class will flee
inner city areas to greener outskirts.
In Scenario 2 the population of inner cities increases much more rapidly,
while the suburbs experience only moderate population increases. The driving
factors are high levels of immigration and high birth rates for population segments
in the low income bracket. New residents will initially prefer to settle in large
urban areas, where unskilled labor is still in high demand relative to rural and
suburban areas. Despite the expected increase in inner city population, the
mobility of residents to the suburbs could be impeded by their lack of white-collar
skills and financial resources.
The two scenarios each promote the redevelopment of abandoned industrial
sites and other sites that are classified as being contaminated. However, the
interactions among the driving factors are different. It is possible to construct
other scenarios, including ones which are more optimistic about the quality of
American urban life, but these two were the only ones addressed by the EEC.
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A key finding was that the Agency should ensure that appropriate
technology is available and/or deployed to redevelop urban contaminated
industrial Bites and remediated land; this should be done in a manner that
avoids problem environmental exposures and meets intracity needs for
development, commerce, and conservation.
3.2.2.2 Discussion
This section briefly discusses the major driving factors for land
redevelopment: population increase, socio-economic trade-offs, legal liability, risk
and advances in technology. More detail is found in Appendix 2.
The Census Bureau's lowest series estimate of TJ.S, population for the year
2030, the time frame which corresponds reasonably to the Futures Project analysis
period, is 287 million. United Nations estimates show that the percentage of
global population residing in cities of 4 million or greater is expected to grow from
15,8 per cent in 1985 to 24.5 in 2025. Similarly, the Census Bureau, indicates that
in 1990 roughly one-third of Americans lived in central cities, one-third in suburbs,
and one-third in rural areas. It appears that a moderate influx of new residents
into metropolitan areas and high birth rates among urban residents could cause
acute scarcity of space in the cities.
Market forces will play a significant role in land redevelopment in urban
areas. Redevelopment activities usually revitalize industries such as construction,
insurance, hardware sales, and road construction. Such revitalization leads
municipal governments to cherish increases in construction because it reduces
unemployment rates. Therefore, municipal governments sometimes use incentives
such as tax breaks to retain companies and attract new ones. When municipal
governments consider urban infrastructure improvement projects, "enterprise
zones", and the assessment of options for promoting sustainable reuse of
abandoned industrial sites, closed military bases, and other government property,
they also consider policy options involving changes in zoning codes and
regulations, lending and insurance practices, and future liability responsibility.
Currently, liability concerns discourage potential developers from purchasing
contaminated land for subsequent redevelopment. Some recent state and federal
legislative proposals and judicial decisions indicate that liability concerns, which
currently impede the transfer and redevelopment of former industrial sites and
other types of contaminated land, may wane within the next 30 years.
At the present time, "health-based" cleanup standards have not been
achieved in a cost effective manner for soil and groundwater at many
contaminated sites. Most types of technology and techniques employed are
relatively new, and uncertainties remain, The EEC's position is that the risks to
workers in redeveloped facilities and to residents using remediated land should noi
be increased by the push for redevelopment, rather, that cost-effective technology
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be applied/developed to reduce exposure and thereby achieve the desired low-risk
levels. Exposure can be reduced by clean-up, barriers, and use restrictions.
The Agency needs to review and revise, as needed, current exposure and
risk assessment methods for adaptation to redevelopment scenarios. Regulatory
agencies also should recognize that there may be different and possibly fewer
pathways of exposure and risk at redeveloped inner-city and industrial sites. For
instance, since a public water supply is reliably provided, the ground-water
pathway may not be of concern at such sites.
3.2.2.3 Possible Agency Actions
Appendix 2 makes recommendations about data needs on site inventory and
spatial distribution, site redevelopment and city/regional planning, exposure
assessment and site cleanup levels, engineering mitigation schemes for structures,
education, research, and in-house expertise. Information gaps are presented in
Table 1.
Table 1: Urban Redevelopment Information Gaps
a) Availability of data on population and spatial growth patterns of U.S,
cities.
b) Availability of data on the number and distribution of both closed
industrial sites and remediated land relative to large population centers.
c) Availability of centralized information resources on liability laws and
trends relevant to site redevelopment.
d) Existence of comprehensive schemes for integrating site redevelopment
into city and regional plans,
e) Existence of federal policies with adequate latitude for local jurisdictional
controls on redevelopment,
f) Availability of technical schemes and research data for addressing issues
such as residual contaminant migration, exposure and risk assessments
for site redevelopment, relevant cleanup standards, foundation systems in
residually contaminated land, occupational health and safety, and
environmental equity.
g) Availability of expertise within the EPA to address these issues.
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3.2.3 Issue 3; Transient Events
Whether of meteorological or geological origin, natural disasters cause
damage to the environment with the extent of damage being directly linked to
population, land use practices and structures. A transient phenomenon (e.g.,
earthquake, wildfire, volcanic eruption, landslide, flood, hurricane, rain storm,
tornado, heavy snowfall, etc.) may convert a hazard into an ecological or health
and safety catastrophe.
The magnitude and intensity of disaster events are often measured to terms
of human health and welfare, as well as environmental perturbations, a domain
shared by EPA with other agencies. Appendix 3 addresses issues related to
Agency responsibilities and preparedness, primarily in response to anticipated
environmental threats posed to human health and natural resources by transient
phenomena, yjg-a-yis analysis of a selected subordinate - challenges posed by
riverine floods,
3.2,3,1 Scenarios and Drivers
Two scenarios were investigated. Scenario 1 assumed that a riverine flood
of significant magnitude posed serious environmental threats to a large (or
smaller, but intensively utilized or high population density) area occurs under
circumstances in which governmental units have not effectively established
necessary capability (preparedness) to address the problems and potential
consequences. Threats considered in a natural hazards sequence include
landslides, debris impacts, erosion, impacts to power supplies, damage to
underground utilities, disrupted water supplies, chemical and other contamination,
and sewage releases.
The second scenario was essentially the same as the first, except that some
level of preparedness at the national level by EPA was presumed. The choice of
scenarios was intended to bring out a sense of the nature and potential severity of
consequences.
Appendix 3 uses a natural hazards sequence tree to relate disaster events,
e.g., intense thunderstorm, to subsequent natural disaster phenomena, e,g,, riverine
flood, and to ensuing adverse environmental impacts, e.g,, contamination of water
resources. This analysis was coupled with a detailed examination of pertinent
literature concerning actual and potential opportunities to establish and implement
appropriate strategies to prevent or mitigate impacts of natural disasters.
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A key finding was that environmental consequences of natural disasters,
such as riverine floods, are mot being adequately addressed by established
response protocols and definition of interageney responsibilities. EPA should
consider analyzing the serious environmental challenges posed by natural
disasters, clearly identify its responsibilities in this area, and proactively
develop a program that can, anticipate, prevent or mitigate threats to human.
health and the environment far implementation by collaboration with
appropriate agencies.
3.2.3.2 Discussion
Although taken as a whole, there is no evidence that the frequency of
natural disasters will differ significantly in the future from that of past
occurrences, population growth, capital investment, and increased intensity of land
use and management in vulnerable areas have led to significantly increased
potential for damage caused by natural disasters. Indeed, steady stressors, such as
leachate from a waste disposal site, have received more attention than have the
consequences of such natural incidents, largely because they frequently have
recognizable and manageable spatial and temporal dimensions.
Recent events, for example, hurricane damage and extreme cold weather in
the eastern seaboard states; earthquakes, fires and mudslides in western coastal
regions; and unprecedented flooding in central and southeastern regions of the
country severely affect human health and the environment. Given increasing
intensity of land use and population growth in susceptible areas, potential
consequences to the health and environment could be severe, unless means to
protect these areas from natural disasters are established.
A National Research Council Report (NEC, 1991) proposed a
multidisciplinary program for the government without explicitly defining a role for
EPA (There was no EPA representation in the report's development). The EEC
finds that hi the area of protection of natural resources, research to improve
prediction of hydrologic hazards and impacts on human and natural resources, and
coordination and standardization of data collection stand out as potential
initiatives related to the mission of EPA.
The EEC recommends that EPA consider proactively addressing the
environmental threats posed by natural disasters. Benefits that should be sought
include: reduction, in life and property losses; marginal land rehabilitation, zoning
and conversion; safeguards against transient outcomes, e.g,, flood-derived
contamination and its micro* and macro-scale effects; provisions for developing
hazard»specific data bases and guidance to the public and private sectors; catalysis
of research and development for innovative remedial and preventive technologies;
and improvement and use of EPA's capabilities as an important contributor to
reducing adverse health and environmental impacts of natural disasters and
promoting protection for at-risk natural and human populations.
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3.2.3.3 Possible Agency Actions
To strengthen its overall state of readiness, EPA could adopt some or all of
the options discussed in Appendix 3. Table 2 presents some example options.
Table 2: Example Agency Actions Related to Transient Events
a) Establish an overall vision of a proactive program aimed at addressing
environmental threats posed by natural disasters.
b) Obtain data for analyses that address environmental and human health
and welfare aspects of hazards. Such data should support risk
assessments, mitigation and prevention, emergency response, prediction
and warning. Data acquisition, validation, education and technology
transfer could be established at EPA,
c) Undertake an internal Agency-wide evaluation of current capabilities
related to policies and associated programmatic efforts aimed at
mitigating environmental threats posed by natural disasters,
d) Analyze programs external to the Agency and identify relevant
programmatic aspects of external programs that can interface,
complement or supplement internal agency efforts,
e) Catalyze environmental disaster prevention and preparedness strategy
among government agencies. As necessary, expand Agency capabilities
and activities where current capabilities prove inadequate.
3,2.4 Issue 4: Core competencies
An important cross-cutting issue that emerged is the Agency's readiness to
address technically foreseeable events that fall within the mission of the Agency.
Specifically, the concept of "core competency" emerged, as defined below:
The core competencies are the essential and distinct scientific and
technical capabilities that enable EPA to fulfill its current and future
missions. Having core competencies supports EPA's ability to
approach, regulations in an integrated, efficient, cost-effective and
harmonized manner and to address multi-pollutant and multi-media
problems with the limited resources that will likely be available to the
Agency.
Appendix 4 provides commentary concerning the need, in the context of
environmental futures, for the Agency to systematically identify, examine and
appraise core technical competencies. Core EPA engineering examples might be
competency for; the improved design and operation of water and wastewater
treatment facilities or hazardous waste incinerators and better modeling of
pollution transport through groundwater, surface waters, air, or the food-chain.
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More complete listings can be found in the SAB document Future...Risk (EPA,
1988).
A key finding is that EPA should systematically identify its core
competencies and strengthen them where needed.
3 J.4.1 Scenarios and Drivers
EEC did not use scenario and driver analyses for this issue, rather it drew
on the experience of its previous activities.
3.2.4,2 Discussion
In the course of many reviews, the EEC has observed the excessive reliance
of EPA staff on contractors in areas of science and technology that seem to be in
areas of core competency. The need to attend to increasingly complex, lengthy,
and heavily compliance-oriented legislation may have placed a heavy burden upon
the Agency. Agency attention is, therefore, focused on the development and
implementation of regulations at the expense of maintenance and improvement of
in-house core competencies.
There are advantages-regarding both present and future environmental
issues-to attending to both regulatory activities and underlying technical
requirements. With regard to future challenges, the Agency could undertake a
careful examination of technical core competencies and, as warranted, modify
and/or augment present capabilities, leveraging across other governmental and
private sector activities where appropriate.
3.2.4.3 Possible Agency Actions
To enhance core competence for present and future needs, EPA could
consider adoption of some or all of the policy options discussed in Appendix 4 and
summarized in Table 8. In general, EEC considers it advisable for the Agency to
systematically identify and examine its technical core competencies and make a
determination regarding the adequacy of present resources judged against those
competencies needed to address both existing and future environmental issues.
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Table 3; Example Issues Related to EPA Core Competency
a) As the lead government regulatory agency responsible for protection of the
environment, the EPA must, at a minimum, be able to comprehensively address
technical aspects of complex environmental issues through strength in core
competencies and ensure the technical merits of regulatory activities.
b) EPA should identify and assess for gaps the adequacy of those technical core
competency components already in place within the Agency in relation to
strategic direction and guidance, as well as emerging issues,
c) A critical element of core competencies is Agency research programs. Emphasis
should be placed upon those activities which enable the Agency to: (1) identify
key environmental indicators; (2) obtain sound scientific and engineering data;
(3) ensure the availability of critically needed, monitoring capabilities; and (4)
promote the development and deployment of cleaner technologies, production
processes and products.
d) The realization of sound, technical core competencies can enable the Agency to
catalyze innovation. Moreover, the realization and identification of core
competencies can uncover partnership opportunities with other agencies,
industry and aeademta.
e) Technical core research programs should be integrated by striving to; (1)
provide the impetus for development and deployment of innovative cleaner
technologies; (2) provide sound technical support regarding regulatory activities
of the Agency; and (3) seek to anticipate, identify and productively respond to
future environmental threats.
D EPA needs to work to ensure the optimum (cost-effective, efficient, dependable,
and timely) realization of EPA technical core competency requirements
necessitated by Agency missions and strategic direction and guidance, taking
into account available opportunities to interface, supplement or complement
internal technical core competencies with technical competencies that are
external to the Agency.
g) The exercise in competency development is not limited to analyzing capabilities
and responding to future needs. Rather, it helps to choose investments in
future programs wherein there is a higher potential of being successful.
Simply put, the exercise provides another dimension for making decisions, Le.,
opportunity.
3.3. A Futures Methodology Approach
The EEC learned by doing and in so doing found other approaches that
could be usefully incorporated in future undertakings of this nature. The EEC
arrived at and recommends the following future issues analysis approach for
consideration for use by EPA.
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3.3.1 Bramstonning and Criteria-based Selections
The EEC brainstormed to form an initial list of possible environments!
engineering issues that might be addressed in the futures study. EEC used
criteria to shorten the list to a few significant, representative issues for a more in-
depth study. The EEC experience showed:
a) An expert committee process can identify potentially important future
issues, but absent some constraining criteria, the list may include
items of different levels of generality (e,g., domains of issues, generic
issues, specific issues) that are difficult to compare,
b) Many of the items initially suggested for inclusion in the
brainstormed list were, strictly speaking, not issues. They were,
rather, domains within which any of a number of issues might be
found. This led to a number of attempts to group issues and
subsume others under more general headings,
c) The development of a formalized approach to score or weight issues is
a challenging undertaking and should be pursued both with attention
to all stakeholders and in respect to a need to harmonize the process.
Based on these findings, the EEC recommends:
a) Experts involved in brainstorming and/or scanning sessions should be
carefully selected and should represent as comprehensive a range of
experience as practicable. Expert participants in a brainstorming
exercise, are in a sense, the eyes and ears of a "lookout" enterprise.
b) Participants should know the priority-setting criteria before they
suggest future issues. Modifications to the proposed criteria set
should be pursued until the set is harmonized. The following criteria
could be used as an initial basis for development of a harmonised
criteria set:
Scope: If the issue develops, might it affect many people or a few?
All other things being equal, one issue may be more important than
another if it affects more people.
Bevejdtyj If the issue develops, might its effects be severe (the most
severe effect being death or a species loss)?
Novelty: Is the issue new, or has it already received considerable
attention?
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Plausibility/probabilitv/certainty: How might the issue develop? What
axe its chances of developing?
Uncertainty: Are there crucial uncertainties that make an issue
important?
Irreversibility: If the issue is not addressed, might its consequence be
(largely) irreversible?
Imminence: Is the issue imminent? All other things being equal, a
near-term problem is more important than a longer-term one,
Visibility: Is the issue in the public eye? What are the ramifications
for addressing the issue?
q) Possibly, in some negotiated and agreed-upon manner, criteria can be
weighted, This weighting should be discussed before the actual
nomination of issues. As there is considerable disharmony regarding
the merits of weighting schemes, it is essential to eliminate or at least
minimize subjectivity in weighting decisions to the maximal extent
practicable,
d) An alternative approach contemplates that items in the issues list be
categorized more loosely, e.g., as high, medium or low priority.
e) To improve the efficiency of the process, when an expert (or
stakeholder) panel is asked to nominate issues, the usual rules for
brainstorming should be adjusted; rather than opening up the
discussion for whatever anyone has to say in any form, the group
should be given, some structural (not content) guidance. For example,
the instruction:
"Please suggest important future issues for EPA. Limit your response
to your _o_wJft experience and background in making these suggestions.
Consider the criteria (listed). Please frame your input in the form of
an issue rather than a domain, and include a principal consequence in
your statement."
f) To mitigate influences of one individual upon another, to the extent
possible, suggestions and discussions concerning candidate issues
should allow for anonymity. However, some process should be
established to resolve ambiguities concerning the meaning or
ramifications of individual statements concerning issues,
g) As challenges to the Agency have a dynamic character (new
observations and knowledge gives rise to new imperatives), the
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process of issue development should be repeated at intervals of six
months, a year, or some other practical time frame.
3.3.2 Selecting an Approach
If EPA undertakes futures analyses, it may wish to consider the following:
a) To realize their full potential, scenarios, particularly quantitative
scenarios, involve great complexity and much time-consuming effort to
construct. [NB; Such an undertaking was beyond the scope of the
present initiative.] Scanning the environmental horizon by "look out"
panels may be a more practical way to get a quick start.
b) In an Agency-wide undertaking, EPA can use scenarios, for example:
to trace chains of causality leading to the present; to explore unique
future developments and their consequences; to examine the
implications of action or inaction and the ranges of possible outcomes;
to explore the roles of all stakeholders; and, perhaps most
importantly, to further stimulate imagination.
c) The "natural hazard sequence" diagram included in the transient
phenomena appendix illustrates an approach to scenarios that has the
benefits of displaying the full array of impacts flowing from a single
cause, visually presenting the decision "branch points" at which policy
intervention may be possible.
d) The methodology used in the present exercise, although placing less
emphasis on scenario utility, can be viewed as a prototype for an
Agency "expert lookout panel," i,e., in which experts are asked,
systematically, to identify important future issues, to select those that
appear to be most important through succinct and well-defined
screening criteria, and to study those of high priority. Based on the
present exercise and retrospective examinations of the process, the
Subcommittee recommends a framework for a second generation
approach which the Agency might implement as a possible future
issues analysis paradigm.
As outlined below, the Agency can design and implement a "lookout" system
for detecting and analyzing incipient future developments that might threaten the
environment or provide new policy opportunities for the Agency, The
Subcommittee suggests that the system, at a minimum, have the following
characteristics;
a) draw input from a wide range of sources, considering diversity;
b) operate in a continuous rather than a "one-shot" mode;
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c) have a memory, so that suggestions that are set aside today for lack
of data or interest can be reassessed in the future;
d) be quantitative, wherever possible;
e) be subject to scrutiny by people outside of the process;
f) have explicit goals; and
g) recognize that many futures are possible,
3.3.3 A Candidate Futures Issues Analysis Approach
One approach would be for EPA to set up "Lookout Panels" in areas of
health, ecology, socioeconomics, and technology. Each panel would have some
cross-discipline representation. In addition,
a) The process would be conducted by EPA staff, but involve experts
within and outside the Agency,
b) Panelists would be contacted periodically to scan their fields and
provide observations about new or intensifying issues and their
consequences.
c) These observations would be collected and fed back to the other
panelists for comment.
d) Candidate issues would be screened against agreed-to criteria.
Surviving issues would be analyzed versus any existing scenarios and
EPA goal statements.
e) Recommended near-term actions for EPA based on project futures
then would be developed.
3.3.4 Pilot Test of Issue Identification
The EEC conducted a test run of the early steps in the above Look-Out
Panel Methodology and identified the issues listed in Table 4 for further
evaluation "by EPA.
27
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Table 4: Additional Technology and Environment Concerns
a) Will fossil fuel depletion lead to use of resources having a greater
potential for environmental contamination and habitat loss?
b) Will major industrial accidents and/or terrorist activities impacting
the environment reach crisis proportions and become a major focus
for the Agency?
c) Will accelerating deterioration of urban infrastructure (e.g., water,
sewerage, fuels) increase the potential for serious environmental
incidents?
d) Will the high cost-benefit ratio of some environmental management
strategies become recognized by the public leading to challenges to
EPA's programs? The costs of environmental mismanagement or
nonmanagement could become more recognized by the public,
thereby either increasing the demand for traditional command and
control responses, possibly at the expense of new and innovative
pollution reduction and elimination strategies, or decreasing
already proven effective strategies.
e) Will environmentally contaminated reservoirs, such as
contaminated sediments, be recognized as posing greater risk than
existing point-discharges?
f) Will conventional technology for the control of newly recognized
pathogens in drinking water be found to be inadequate?
g) Will electromagnetic radiation becomes widely recognized as a
major health threat as new technologies increase sources and
exposure, and evidence for adverse effects accumulates?
h) Will industrial-ecology concepts lead to use of wastes by
industrial/commercial sectors that cause more problems lihan
solutions?
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4. SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS
4.1 Remarks specific to issues analyzed
For the four issues examined, the EEC developed the following serious
concerns that need to be addressed by the Agency:
a) Agency decision! concerning clean production technologies need to be
carefully constructed and balanced, so that there are benefits both to
the environment and to U.S. industrial competitiveness. Flexibility in
achieving the desired risk reduction at a facility could promote
deployment of cleaner technologies to replace end~of-pipe control
technologies,
b) The Agency needs to ensure appropriate technology is available and/or
deployed to redevelop urban contaminated industrial sites and
remediated land; this needs to be done in such a way that avoids
significant exposures and meets intraeity needs for development,
commerce, and conservation.
c) The Agency needs to strengthen its capability and readiness to
address potential environmental consequences of natural disasters
associated with, transient phenomena sueh as riverine floods
considering trends in population growth and inappropriate land use.
Associated planning and preparedness can help minimize the potential
adverse impacts on natural resources and human health.
d) The Agency needs to systematically identify and examine the essential
and distinct scientific and engineering capabilities (core competencies)
needed to address technical aspects of its present and expected future
mission and strengthen them where needed.
4.2 Other findingB
a) "Lookout Panels" are recommended to EPA in areas of health,
ecology, socioeconomics, and technology. Panelists would periodically
provide observations about new or intensifying issues. After
interaction and analysis, recommendations for near-term EPA actions
would be developed. The EEC encourages EPA to improve further
means for identifying issues of concern and establishing some agreed-
upon criteria for assessing the relative urgency and consequential
importance of action to address these issues.
29
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b) The EEC, in its dry run of a portion of the Lookout Panel paradigm,
identified another eight scenarios which may benefit from further
analysis by others. They appear in Table 4 and should be evaluated
by EPA in terms of likelihood, importance, and, if appropriate,
mitigation.
4.3 General Remarks
The Agency is commended for its foresight in undertaking this initiative. It
provided an opportunity to scan the future and attempt to anticipate potential
environmental threats which may pose significant challenges to the Agency to
address problems as they arise. Moreover, the members of the EEC thank the
SAB and Agency Offices staff for assistance, resources and time commitments that
have been useful in the conduct of this initiative.
The SAB/EEC initiative as carried out can serve as a pilot element for the
development of a productive process for the Agency in future undertakings of this
nature. Although members of the EEC found that scanning of possible futures
was challenging, it was only tractable under circumstances in which its focus was
limited to just a few issues. The downside of this limitation of the SAB's futures
project is the prospect that some issues of importance have been inadvertently
overlooked.
Should the exercise be taken up again by SAB, it would be helpful if SAB
Standing Committees would interact more at the onset with all of the other SAB
Standing Committees to enable cross-comparison of issues, criteria, approach,
expertise, and resources. In this manner a more comprehensive integration of
ideas, inclusion of areas of importance, and more efficient use of and access to
resources, may be realized.
While the committee found forecasting to be a useful exercise in addressing
specific issues, a concomitant detailed examination and analysis of current
knowledge and historical and current trends is absolutely essential in order to
arrive at a comprehensive view of environmental challenges and implications for
Agency stance regarding both readiness and action options,
Regarding the issues it addressed, the EEC is encouraged by the prospect
that the information generated may provide useful advice to the Agency. The
EEC believes that progress aimed at addressing even a limited set of these options
can enable the Agency to move towards an enhanced state of readiness and
anticipatory posture with regard to future developments.
30
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5. REFERENCES
EPA. 1988. U.S, Environmental Protection Agency, Science Advisory Board,
Future Risk. EPA-SAB-EC-88-040,
EPA. 1990, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Science Advisory Board,
Reducing Risk: Setting Priorities and Strategies for Environmental
Protection, EPA-SAB-EC-90-021.
EPA. 1992. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, NACEPT Improving
Technology Diffusion for Environmental Protection.
NEC. 1991, Mational Research Council (NEC), "A Safer Future - Reducing &e
Impacts of Natural Disaster"', National Academy Press, WashiTigtQn, DC,
pp.67, ISBN Q-3Q9-Q4546-Q.
OECD. 1992, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development's
Government Policy Options to Encourage Cleaner Production and Products
in the 1990s.
OTA. 1993. U.S, Office of Technology Assessments Industry, Technology and the
Environment-Competitive Challenges and Business Opportunities.
R-l
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DISTRIBUTION LIST
Administrator
Deputy Administrator
Regional Administrators, Regions 1-10
Assistant Administrators
Director, Office of Environmental Engineering and Technology
Demonstration
Director, Office of Pollution. Prevention and Toxics
EPA Headquarters Library
National Technical Information Service
Congressional Research Service
Library of Congress
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Appendix 1; Manufacturing Sustainability
by
Dr. Walter M, Shaub, President
COREE, Inc., Reston, VA
-------
Prepared for ;
i
tJ.S, Er.vircniaent&i Protection Agency
Environmental Engineering Committee
Futures Writing Subcommittee
March 14, 1994
IMPACT OF S*gRiyiNG TO ACHIEVE SUSTAIN ABILITY
OH A MANUyACTTIRIHG ETHIC
A. Introduction
The global community has begun to take the view in regard to
sustainable development [1,2] that economic growth "should
progress under circumstances that do not lead to degradation of
environmental quality. In response to the challenge tc strive
towards sustainable development, governments at regional,
national and international levels and the private sector have
begun to look both, in the near- and long-term for ways to attack
increasing threats to environmental
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the contaminants of interest should ideally decrease in
absolute terms;
o the use of various raw materials (e.g., wood, water, iron
ore, oil, ccal, etc.) to be such that their depletion
over time is reduced to an environmentally justifiable
minimum; ','"
o output of marketable goods and services per' employee
(labour productivity) to increase as a function of time;
o total job creation to increase over time? and
o industry to be able to retain or improve its
competltivity with time if and when all of the foregoing
conditions are metrt
In the long term efforts aimed at, development and
utilization'of cleaner technologies in order to assure cleaner
production processes and cleaner products are seen as a means to
improve the prospect that environmental quality can be maintained
or improved [3], For the manufacturing sector of U.S* industry,
the challenge of striving to achieve sustainability in the long
term should lead towards the development and deployment of
cleaner technologies, if while doing so, mechanisms are created
to ensure that firms can remain competitive. In other words, in
concert with an evolutionary shift in industrial posture, the
U.S. EPA must adjust its regulatory stance in order to encourage
cleaner production and products and to facilitate the
introduction of cleaner technology in the manufacturing sector in
a manner that does not harm U.S. industry competitivity in the
global narketplace.
In the context of this report, cleaner technologies are to
be understood as those technologies that can enable cleaner
production and products. Cleaner production is aeant [3] to
reduce energy and natural resource dependent raw material
utilization per unit of manufactured product output while at the
same time, production, marketing and disposal of (cleaner)
products takes place under circumstances in, which undesirable
environmental perturbations (for example, releases of potentially
harmful contaminants) are held as low as practicable.
Factors that influence the development and utilization of
cleaner technologies include [3,4]; government signals and
actions; raw material, energy, transport and waste disposal
prices? attitudes of management and labor, and public demand.
Although market penetration at present has • not been substantial,
cleaner technologies are available, and efforts are underway to
promote- innovative development and subsequent implementation of
newer generations of cleaner technologies [2-5]. Ideally, in a
sustainable world economy, it is Important [4] that these
innovations should not be economically disruptive, e.g., do not
impair the competitive position of those industries that perform
in an environmentally responsible manner.
Stiaub
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B. The existing situation and current trends
As an indication of the complexity of potential industrial
impacts, it is reported [5] that:
f
- about 7 million chemical substances are known-
- about 100,000 are available on the market
- these products and other substances (chromium, cadmium,
etc.) are used' in a growing number of consumption or
production sectors: pigments for paints, lubricants,
fertilizers, food additives, stabilizers, cleaning or
anti-corrosion agents, solvents, medicines, etc,
- The CJS EPA lists some 500 substances as hazardous, but in
practice scarcely more than 100 are covered by•standards
[KB the EEC list is about 30 items].
It is reported [5] that among developed nations, in spite of
measures taken, not only the quantity, but also the toxicity
and/or the complexity of wastes being generated have continued to
increase, and its processing still places a heavy financial-
burden on the economy. Taken as a whole, the increasing
worldwide inventory of harmful or potentially harmful [solid,
liquid, gaseous] wastes [2(a)] poses an increasing threat to
environmental quality. • This circumstance severely challenges
attempts to establish sustainable development.
The present costs of controlling pollution outputs generated
can be enormous. A recent U.S. EPA cost assessment study reports
[6] that total direct costs of pollution control in the United
States were nearly 2.1% of the GNP or, with, investments
annualized at 7%, ca $115 billion. Moreover, mast; of these
expenditures were made in the private sector, with the largest
expenditures in the chemical, petroleum, primary metals, food and
paper industries. In addition, [4] a recent U.S. study suggests
that about 3% of GDP will be required to attain ambient
environmental goals by the year 2005.
It is evident that past practices have lead to enormous
costs to society, application of react and control practices,
i.e., largely end-of-pipe management, and are likely to
increasingly cost society a significant portion of national
wealth. A recent study [5] states that prevention of waste
formation or "reduction of waste produced11 must become a major
thrust.
C. Driving variables
It is reported [5] -that if present trends in organic
chemical and metals processing industries continue,_ 50% of the
products anticipated to be used in 15 year's time, do not yet
exist! The rate of new product generation with, increasing
Shaub
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diversity and complexity that acccapany a reduction in the
overall consumption of natural resources, gives rise to doubts as
to whether there can ever be systematic control of their
toxicity. Additionally, the recent phase of industrialization
has been characterized by marked differentiation of risks [5]:
now less probable, but potentially more serious, sore diffuse and
varied, and more international. It is unlikely that they can be
effectively managed without a radical change in traditional
patterns of industrial action.
In sura, in regard- to the manufacturing sector, major drivers
of concerns for actual and potential impacts upon human health
and the environment are the amount of wastes and especially their
hazardous' character, that are being generated and that, absent
actions to t\e contrary,' apparently will be generated in
increasing amounts in the future.-
D. Scenarios of 'future impacts
A recent investigation of future scenarios of hazardous
waste generation has been reported [2]. In view of the foregoing
discussions, it is relevant to environmental challenges posed by
activities within manufacturing sectors.
The futures scenario that was exercised, modeled hazardous
waste generation (WH2) as a function of time calculated as the
product of [2] :
WHz = WHz/W x W/GNP K GNP/capita sc Population
Above, WHz/W represents the ratio, hazardous waste
generated/material throughput of the economy? W/GNP represents
the ratio, material throughput of the economy /GHP; and GNP/capita
represents the ratio, GHP/capita « [NB an additional expression,
"hazardous waste intensity" was defined as the ratio of annual
generation of hazardous waste to
A description of the three futures scenarios investigated
are presented below, while a more complete description and
discussion of the model and outcome of the exercise are to be
found in the cited reference [2']:
Scenario 1 s In this base-case scenario it was assumed that;
global population trends continue such that global population
reaches 8.5 billion by 2025, 10 billion by 2050, and then
stabilizes thereafter due to improved standards of living,
better education, and birth control; recent medium-term trends
in per capita growth of GNP are assuued to continue throughout
the next century; and current hazardous waste intensities are
assuemed to remain constant over ttie scenario period.
Shaub
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Scenario 2; In this scenario, it is assumed that the
developing world industrializes fast over the next fifty
years; it assumes the same population growth as scenario 1; it
is assumed that per capita levels of, GNP reach $ 20,000 on a
global basis by the year 2040; and that thereafter, GNP. per
capita grows at ca 2% per annum; hazardous waste intensities
are assumed'to peak at around 10 kg/$K at GNP levels of around
$ 4000 per capita. Following this peak, hazardous waste
• intensities are assumed to fall away towards a constant level
of 5 Icg/$K by the time per capita GNP reaches $ 15,000 per
annum. This scenario is considered reasonably conservative
with respect to "present" trends in development.
Scenario 3; (cleaner Growth) In this scenario, economic growth
is assumed to be much slower than in the previous scenario; a
global per capita GNP of $ 25,000 is assumed attained?
development is assumed to occur over the longer period of a
century* A peak value of. for hazardous • waste intensity of 5
kg/$K is realized,•implying that the poorest countries develop
by employing; the cleanest of existing technologies and
processes; following this peak, hazardous waste intensities
are assumed to fall away towards a constant level of Q.S kg/$K
(implies more than 90% reductions over existing hazardous
waste intensities - a major technological and economic
challenge).
The outcome of these future scenarios, modeled according to
various inputs [2], indicated that global development based on
use of existing technologies, processes, and standards and
consumption patterns of the industrialized world can lead to
considerable increases in hazardous waste generation. Even the
stringent assumptions of a- "Cleaner Growth11 scenario predicted
cumulative, increasing hazardous waste generation and implied
increased environmental burdens over the next century. In sum,
regardless what scenario was considered, a uniform view emerged;
•sustainability will require formidable efforts to achieve.
E. Consequences
As a precautionary note, the output of the' model should only
be viewed as illustrative of passible outcomes and should not be
considered to be a predictor of actual outcomes. Given the great
uncertainties associated with data availability and quality,
simplifying assumptions, and other considerations, the model only
has a qualitative value. Nonetheless, it has the potential to
serve as one possible means to evaluate need for redirection of
manufacturing ethic focus in regard to sustainable development
objectives.
Shaub
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Overt consequences of realization of the scenarios examined
are that absent measures to the contrary, the cumulative anount
of. generated hazardous waste is anticipated to continue to
increase far into the future. In other words:
The worldwide generation of wastes will*' increase in a manner
that will prove extremely difficult to manage.
Adverse environmental impacts of manufactured' products will
not be reduced to a justifiable minimum.
Natural resource usage will be .less than optimum.
However, of perhaps greater concern, is the observation that
all 'of the model scenarios exercised predict cumulative increases
in amounts of hazardous wastes generated in the future. This
outcome implies that in order to achieve sustainability, policies
aimed at preventing generation of wastes in the manufacturing
sector, especially hazardous wastes, likely must, be extremely
carefully thoughtL_out and optimized.
Absent carefully thought out actions taken to ensure waste
prevention and at the same time enable economic growth in an
environmentally sustainable fashion, the above discussions also
suggest the following possible additional implied consequences:
The competitive position of U.S. firms in a global marketplace
could bci eroded with consequent loss of marketplace
penetration opportunities, lost employment, etc*; for example,
regulatory • policies may 'be inappropriate: attacking the
problem of wastes generated via mandatory end-of-pipe controls
may prevent the renewal of capital stock needed to acquire
cleaner technologies.
Improvement of standards of living could suffer" due to
otherwise avoidable generation of wastes and expenditure of
more resources than absolutely necessary per unit of actions
• taken to achieve a desired level of environmental protection.
Absent a strong and predictable regulatory program that
encourages movement towards development and deployment of
cleaner technologies, industry nay continue to opt for more
predictable end-of-pipe controls.
Data and information needed to ensure that environmental
targets are being met will not be available*
Shaub
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Analysis of issues and mitigating
F. Manufacturing Ethic:
In reaction to concerns about, the 'present situation and in
consideration of consequences that could arise in the event of
occurrence of scenarios described above/ an ethic that has seen
growing support is that [5] a desired way to manage waste is to
• prevent its generation and avoid unnecessary depletion of
resources and raw materials while reducing the potential for harm
to human health and the environment to the maximum extent
practicable, Waste prevention can mitigate 'inadequacies of
treatment, storage and disposal facilities.
For the manufacturing sector, this weans evolution and
innovation in respect to the development and utilisation of
cleaner technologies and production processes. At 'present,
environmental technology marJtets are dominated by end-of-pipe
control technologies [5], It is evident that-significant changes
in the environmental technology market will have to take place in
order to ' shift from a pollution control strategy to a preventive
strategy. However, the translation of this ethic into a
practical management strategy and actual implementation of
measures that can bring about evolutionary . changes (i.e.,
implementation of cleaner technolgies and production processes)
in the manufacturing sector of industry has been slow, despite
signals of costs and of potential inpacts associated with present
waste generation practices. Response to a growing demand for
integrated cleaner technologies and cleaner production processes
depends to a large extent on the renewal of capital stock.
.This situation prevails at the present time, despite growing
evidence [3,4,5] that pollution abatement and less costly use of
resources are feasible and that clean industry and clean products
can have distinct competitive advantages I" regional, national
and international marketplaces. Moreover, technological
evolution and innovation are considered [3,4] the Icey engines for
"job creation and maintenance or improvement of standards of
living, and economic growth in general. The competitive position
of individual firms depends increasingly on technological change
and adaptation [3]. In turn, these technological changes affect
environmental quality and the natural resource base*
The following issues [2-4] must be addressed in order to
develop. a sense of the impact of sustainability on a
manufacturing ethic:
c A vision of sustainability must be established,*
o A basis to achieve sustainability is needed;
o A means to Measure accomplishment of objectives aimed at
achieving sustainability is needed;
Shatib
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o Enforceable policy instruments are'needed;
o Costs of achieving sustainability.must be allocated in an
agreed upon manner;
o Economic characteristics of the private sector must be
addressed,; and
o Temporal aspects of. sustainability roust be addressed.
G, A Vision of Sustainability
Analogous' to the efforts of other countries [3,4], the U.S.
EPA needs tp develop a vision of sustainability in order to
promote clean production. Of necessity, it must 'take the lead
and negotiate, publish, administer, implement and adhere to a
workable plan of what a sustainable economy is meant to be within
specified timeframes.
Absent a vision of sustainability, the U.S. EPA may
encounter difficulties both within the Agency and externally, in
regard to prospects for implementation of measures aimed at
accomplishing objectives that can enable progress towards
achieving sustainable development.
Iu anticipation that the strategic plan underlying a vision
of sustainability will be based upon the outcomes of detailed
negotiation, it will be necessary for the Agency to organize to
act efficiently in ways that reward integrated staff work, and
address a crucial need, regarding clean technology and production
for negotiated policy stances based upon •interdisciplinary
foundations. Further study is recommended concerning plan
development and' its relationship to technology evolution,
corapetitivity, and sustainability.
H. Issues, Challenges and Cleaner Technology
The issues raised and that should be addressed must be
viewed in the context of: challenges raised against achieving
sustainability; how actions mounted may impact ;tne manufacturing1
ethic of the nation's industry; and how in turn, any redirection
of the manufacturing ethic may affect industrial competitiveness
in a global marketplace economy. «. hantonious outcome is clearly
desirable. It is evident that industry, the U*S« EPA, and others
will be challenged to negotiate^ among themselves agreed-upon,
worKable and timely arrangements which lead to demonstrable
progress towards achieving sustainable development and that at
the same time can ensure a competitive marketplace for
environmentally responsible firms.
In view of challenges posed to the manufacturing sector, it
has been concluded that [3,4] the utilization of cleaner
technologies which generate marketable products with concurrent
Shaub
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reduction of environmental impacts and natural resource use to
justifiable minima are of prime importance. The concept of
prevention of waste through the use of cleaner technology is
considered to signal [5] minimization of waste a,t the
manufacturing stage by introducing _ improvements or changes in
manufacturing processes and manufacturing technology ._
I. Industrial Strategies
The trend [5] to date towards inclusion of environmental
considerations in industrial strategies: has- been selective,
mainly involving end-of-pipe controls (driven by inappropriate
regulations and incentives or risk aversion or competitiveness of
industries) ; is installation-size and iage dependent (with more
progress a1. newer facilities); is sensitive to economic
conditions in the marketplace; ' lias little effect on exports to
developing countries; and is influenced by the regulatory
environment - regulatory uncertainty drives risk aversion
regarding use of new "unproven" technologies.
role of clean production in enhancing, reducing, or not
affecting competition is important: policies for promotion and
deployment of cleaner products are neither conceivable nor
practical unless closely coordinated with industrial policy in
its entire form [3,4]; the process by which firms invest in new
technologies is of key importance. in brief, the prime aim of
current industrial policy seems to 'be [3,4] to promote
performance, improve labor productivity, and increase the value
added (wages paid plus profit before interest and depreciation)
of as many enterprises as possible, i.e./ to improve their
overall competitiveness .
Process changes by a firm usually demand major capital
investments • and cannot be undertaken "abruptly11! they are instead
undertaken, only after carefully considering whether investment,
installation , and exploitation of new technoloov will improve +-he
competitivity of the firm in -^.^ marketplace. In consequence!
such changes are evolutionary , and there is doubt [3,4] as to
whether process changes can or should be mandated by regulatory
means .
In regard to marketplace competitiveness [7] successful
implementation . of pollution prevention, measures is critically
related to industrial profitability - firms are unlikely to
pursue preventive measures if profits are not demonstrable at the
level of investment and industrial management decisions.
J, Life Cycle Management Strategies
The impact of striving to achieve sustainability on a
manufacturing ethic will be realised through private sector
Shaub
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initiatives and those of International, nation and regional
governments. With respect to the U.S. EPA this may mean the
adoption of policies that move the manufacturing sector in a.
direction that supports the goal of achieving sustainability.
Given the increasing globalization of the marketplace, it would
not be surprising if in the long term, many of the policy options
ultimately adopted by the Agency are in fact sertewhat global in
aspect. In view of the commonality of long-term sustainability
objectives, this has lead to proposals [2-4] that consumer
products should be fabricated and placed on the market subject to
an integrated life-cycle approach justified 'by environmentally
sound and efficient management principles.
In order to address these proposals a need exists for [3,4]
consumer products to be fabricated and placed onto the market
subject to an integrated life-cycle management approach that aims
toj
o minimize energy use/(unit of output)
o optimize efficiency of natural resources use
o avoid, minimize, remove, or replace inherently toxic,
corrosive, flammable and/or otherwise potentially harmful
components
o ensure that in an environmentally sound manner, discarded
final products can be reused, reclaimed, recycled or
subjected to resource recovery.
Measures aimed at understanding the potential use of cleaner
technologies for preventing waste generation throughout the life
cycle of a product, inclusive of the manufacturing processt have
been and are being encouraged [2-4/5,8]. However, consensus
concerning procedure for life cycle analysis, has not been firmly
established. More data are needed in order to understand
possible cost benefits of use of cleaner technologies.
K. Materials Considerations
Opportunities for employment of cleaner technologies that
•can lead to cleaner production process night be examined within
the context of. materials used in production processes.' The
choice of materials used in manufacturing activities is strongly-
influenced [2] by commodity prices or ease of transformation in
manufacturing.
The need for engineering research aimed at development and
use of cleaner technologies, processes and materials has been
advocated £9] with the encouragement that general principles must
guide the search for substitutes for materials with potentially
important environmental effects* Historic examples suggest clear
benefits of striving for cleaner technologies, production
processes and materials* It has been estimated that if
substitution of lead by polyethylene for cable sheathing ftad not
Shaub
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taken place, consumption of lead by AT&T alone might have reached
a billion pounds per year [10],
L. Regulatory Issues
«
It has been suggested that in the private sector [4], that
(if less than required, by current regulation) the lowest release
levels attained by the most progressive firms should become the
new standard for all firms in that sector after some "'reasonable'
period. It is argued that this approach can encourage
innovation, sines firms seeking to %sefc the standard' and
increase their competitivity would invest in cleaner production
processes to achieve this goal - environmental performance would
be directly related to competition (competition-based standard
setting) just as price, quality, performance, reputatijn, etc*
are.
Sectors of the industrial community that Bdght otherwise be
regulated, may voluntarily act to achieve desired environmental
goals. Voluntary agreements are driven, for example, fay public
and political pressure, actions taken by competitors in
international markets, or threat of tough and enforced laws and
regulations. Voluntary industry agreements or initiatives can
have a measurable effect on potential environmental impacts.
Development [5] of the world Market for clean technology
pollution abatement eg^iipment • over the past decade has been
largely driven by strong regulations. Countries with the most
stringent environmental legislation have taken an early lead in
the development of environmental technology and are leading
exporters [2-5].
Despite the potential benefits of cleaner technologies
relative to end-of-pipe treatment, their use has been relatively
limited due to both market and regulatory failures! existing
markets for clean technologies are perceived to be relatively
small; the availability 'of cleaner technologies is limited in
some areas; higher initial capital costs may be an inhibiting
factor,* risks and uncertainties are associated with cleaner
technologies; manufacturers of end-of-pipe control technologies
present obstacles to marketplace entry; and inappropriate
regulations encourage use of end-of-pipe treatment systems [2-5].
^
As regulatory stance can impact costs of implementing
cleaner technologies, this too is an issue that must be
addressed. Currently, two forms of regulatory style towards
industrial sector pollution sources predominate [3,4]; (1)
1 specified' compliance, which, relies on literally interpreted,
formal precise and specific -rules, tends towards regulatory
uniformity, and often is perceived as adversarial by the
regulated community? and (b) ^negotiated* compliance which
Shaub
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emphasizes reliance upon ' general, " flexible guidelines,
bargaining, allowance for situational non-uniformities in
application of regulations, and an accomodative stance toward the
regulated community.
The specified compliance style is- reported [3,4] to be
fairly efficient for implementing regulations and establishing
rapid maximization of compliance, but antagonizes the regulated
community (which favors flexibility in a manner that offers
advantages over competitors) and leads to high compliance costs.
This style favors end-of-pipe control technologies in order to
meet standards and in the long term is counterproductive; the
purchase . .of end-of"p_lpja_ technolo.gles depletes capital that
otherwise..cauld be coauaited fpr,_cleaner production technologies.
Further progress involving implementation of cleaner technologies
may require an alternative regulatory * negotiated compliance'
approach inclusive of credible environmental quality targets
which are specific, raonitorable and verifiable.
It appears , that future progress aimed at achieving
sustainability depends on utilization of cleaner production
technology and development of cleaner products [2-5] implemented
in part through regulations based upon negotiated compliance.
The development and use of a negotiated compliance model would be
through a systematic consultative and decision-Baking procedure
[4], involving all parties of interest and would emphasise
protection of all environmental media through accomplishment of a
negotiated set of environmental objectives, which if phased in
over an period of time might allow capital stock investments with
long lifetimes to be made rationally [3,4].
The negotiated compliance model is seen as a means to
encourage industry to move toward C 314 3 *
o in-process recycling, re-use, or recovery
o changing segments of the productive process itself
o substituting inputs, e.g., water-based paints instead of
solvent-based
o alteration of the end product itself, e.g., reduction of
mercury in batteries while still meeting electrochemical
requirements
M. Risk and Liability issues
The emergence of new materials, increased materials
complexity, and an increased extent of dispersion and diffusion
of many different products gives rise to increased uncertainties
regarding the nature of risks and of consequent liability. Risk
impacts generally are becoming more complex, more diffused and
pore uncertain.
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It Is reported [3,4] that there is a growing trend toward
imposition of strict liability for damage due to environmental
auses and that uncertainties in the long-term concerning
liability limits for products and waste may catalyze industry
action toward adoption and deployment, of cleaner technologies
with'their attendant advantages, e.g., less hazardous emissions,
less toxic components, etc, in ' other words, concerns about
liability may prove to be a strong motivator for clean production
owing to risk aversion of investors towards firms whose practices
may create unwanted or avoidable liabilities. On the other hand
[3,4], small- or. medium sized firms may see clean technologies as
riskier investments (not ^proven' technology) and opt for end-o£-
pipe technology in strict liability situations.
N. Economic Instruments
Economic instruments can be used [3,4] to:
o correct imbalances that distort marketst e.g., proper
scarcity pricing of natural resources
o correct failures, e.g., use of the environment as a %free'
dumping ground
o ensure that public structural projects, such as road
building, pay their full environmental costs*
%
Without comment concerning their desirability, numerous
economic instruments can be applied towards accomplishing cleaner
technology objectives, e.g., taxes, subsidies, user fees,
tradeable use rights, and time. In some instances, an issue to
be further addressed [e.g., through careful examination, testing,
and evaluation] is uncertainty concerning the actual efficiency
of various economic instruments in the marketplace. It has,
however, been reported [2-5-] that subsidies or perverse
incentives (e.g., depletion allowances, agricultural production,
and cheap water) have markedly resulted in environmentally
damaging practices. Sole dependence upon econumic instruments
may not go far in achieving sustainability goals owing largely to
-the volatility of demand and the elasticity of demand to prices
in differing sectors' [3,4].
Although time will be needed before the results can be fully
evaluated, success using economic incentives has depended upon
the discounted cash, flow cost of correcting an environmental
problem being lower over ' time than proposed 'charges for
continuing undesired behavior [3,4].
0. Competitive Equity Issues
The ability' of an individual company to deploy cleaner-
production technologies is seen to depend on
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o nature of the firm's industrial process
o size and structure of the firm
o attitudes and opinions affecting operation of the firm
o information available to the firm
o assests available for cleaner production technologies
o current regulations and their enforcement
Complaints, have been voiced [3,4] that monetary costs of
environmental requirements are not uniform .for certain sectors,
small- or medium-sized enterprises, or even for some countries as
compared to others - certain firms argue that their inherent
competitivity is harmed by means of actions beyond their control,
One recommendation is that, [3]: "To achieve a "level
playing field would reqmre governments to perform very precise
studies of the average cost differentials and to fashion policies
aimed at cutting any imbalances while at the same time tilting
towards cleaner production technologies. In other words, once
such policies were in force, fay choosing cleaner production
technologies, a firm could act to achieve a level playing field,
by not choosing such technologies, a firm might be. at a
disadvantage, i.e., not receive tax relief, suffer surcharges, or
whatever other financial incentives or disincentives were
associated with "the policy*™
P. Data,•Indicators and Information Transfer
The Agency must evaluate its readiness to provide adequate
funding over time in order to encourage clean .production. It
will be essential that research efforts should be monitorable and
monitored continuously, with corrective adjustments as needed.
The U.S. EPA must recognize that the public, to the extent
provided with reliable information concerning benefits of clean
production technologies, may become a more proactive advocate of
their siting, deployment, and use. For comparison purposes, this
.-information base can be supplemented with information pertaining
to emissions inventories of existing technologies.
A recant report [3] indicates that; "Requirements for public
disclosure of industry information about pollutants generated,
especially toxic' chemical emissions, have been cited as an
effective stimulus to industry waste reduction programmes, often
involving identification anci use of cleaner • production* In the
United States, for example, public reporting of releases of toxic
contaminants as required by law resulted in several major
companies announcing drastic toxic waste reduction programmes
entailing a variety of measures. including cleaner production
technologies."
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Information transfer and training assistance are considered
to be worthwhile undertakings In response to business concerns
and the desire to foster utilization of cleaner production
technologies.
f
While industry leaders consider product quality 'issues to be
a driving force in use of cleaner technologies, producers do not
evidently hold a widespread belief that eco-labelling of products
significantly influences the development and use of cleaner
production technologies [3,4].
There seems to be general agreement that in order to
evaluate progress towards achieving sustainability, measurable
indicators roust be developed.
An approach that has been [3,4] recoitoiended is use of an
environmental auditing statement- based on % generally accepted
environmental auditing procedures' (GAEAP), analogous to
% generally accepted accounting procedures' (GMP) used by
auditors in construction of financial statements found in annual
reports of corporations. while, policy could require report of
feedstock use, energy consumption , various types of releases,
etc. in terms of product sent to market, uniformity of reporting
of certain outcomes of a firm's auditing process should be [3]:
"...balanced against the need to allow a firm's capital
investment decisions to rely on its auditing process in order
to help make confidential business choices leading to clean
production.11
The overall objective of information management should be to
foster good environmental performance and encourage firms to
[3,4];
o invest in production, facilties which minimise, to the
extent practicable, the energy, raw materials, and
• releases per unit of output sent to market
o maintain these facilities properly
o compete to improve these production facilities in order to
impove the state of the art for clean production of
whatever outputs are to be marketed
o minimise the use of inherently hazardous substances in
marketable outputs or as intermediates
Undoubtedly, additional discussions, study, and testing
concerning a variety of issues (e.g., disclosure required of
industry and its costs and benefits) are needed in regard to
CAEAP. it has been recommended that main categories of a "GAEAP"
auditing process in a manufacturing sector firm could include
£3,4]:
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o environmental expertise and awareness
o corporate environmental policy and procedures
o knowledge of applicable laws, regulations, and government
inspection and enforcement approaches
o internal good housekeeping audits..
o compliance check audits (compliance with existing rules)
o community outreach and awareness and preparedness for
emergencies at local level
o release reduction/minimisation per unit of product sent to
market and recovery of these assets
o training of managers and internal auditors
o involvement of the labour force as an active participant
o assessment of opportunities to implement technologies to
cut materials, energy, and releases per unit of product
sent to market .
o assessment of products sent to narket for their potential
effect on man and/or the environment
o reporting to corporate officers
o reporting to stockholders and/or the public
Q. Encouraging Cleaner Production
In its report, Smterjoiaent Policy Options to Encourage
Cleaner Production and Products j,n the 1990s, the OECD
recommended propositions for encouraging the development and
deployment of clean production [3]:
"countries should move toward developing a complex policy
approach [plan] that should include"an agreed and reproducible
means to measure the state of the environment and natural
resources base, identify potential and real sources of
degradation, and monitor these parameters regularly.
Information obtained from monitoring and auditing activities
of a firm can encourage clean production.
The negotiated compliance model of regulations is likely to be
better at promoting cleaner production than is the enforced
compliance model.
Environmental goals could be implemented such that the time to
achieve them is negotiated with the regulatory community*
There needs to be an agreed upon and stable mechanism for
measuring and reviewing the efforts of the regulatory
approaches'since regulatory design is neither perfect nor can
regulations adjust themselves to new events and situations.
In order to promote clean production, direct tax concessions,
accelerated depreciation, and subsidies for end-of-pipe
controls should be phased out fairly rapidly.
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When cleaner production technologies and methods are proposed
as part of a siting or licensing procedure, the time for
granting or denying approval should be limited to soise
reasonable value. •
t
Careful application of economic tools can fee used to * level
the playing' field.
Imposition of strict and joint liability for environmental
damage can be a very strong motivator for clean production.
In addition to funds directed at manufacturing sectors, more
funds should be directed at how cleaner technologies can be
implement'^ in the agricultural and transport sectors*
A steady campaign' to transfer information indicating the
virtues of preventive environmental management to the public
(via schools, news media, industry circulars, etc.) should be
established,
It is desirable to establish 'hot-lines' to provide
information regarding cleaner production technologies.
Information about environmental and natural resources issues
should . be introduced into the curricula of educational
establishments at all levels from elementary to university.
Governments should examine procurement practices and
requirements to ensure that unintended impediments to clean
production are eliminated and that purchasing decisions and
requirements are designed ' to encourage cleaner technologies
and products."
Based on the above discussions, and in a manner that
complements actions proposed elsewhere, tne EPA chould seefc to
foster any or all of the follc .ng recently t-iconmended apti<~.is
that support development and deployment, of cleaner production
•technologies [3,4];
Whatever negotiated vision, of sustainability is established,
it must be measurable according to some agreed upon basis and
applied to clearly identified environmental indicators of
progress.
The Agency should cooperate to ensure that near- and long-tern
plans for the economy should incorporate reasonable time—"
frames and goals for achieving sustainability,
Means should be available to identify any *new* environmental
problems that may emerge.
s
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Milestones and a time-table for achieving sustainablity are
needed.
A regulatory mechanism could be delayed that favors cleaner
production technologies over end-of-pipe solutions.
Existing economic incentives that favor end~Gf-pipe solutions
over cleaner production technologies could be eliminated and
those that promote development and deployment of cleaner-
production technologies could be established and implemented.
The Agency could seek to foster the development and promote
adoption of generally accepted environmental auditing
procedures that both allow firms to retain some auditing
information as confidential and maximize chances of firias
choosing cleaner production technologies in investment
decisions.
In sotne specific instances, the 'Agency could seek to cooperate
. with other governments in development of consensus approaches
to cost effectively attack problems.
Mechanisms are needed to engage both the regulated community
and other * stakeholders' in negotiating approaches aimed at
specific problems*
voluntary agreements could be encouraged where feasible.
Encourage most of the regulated community to perform better
than required, since %best performance' might eventually be
taken as a general standard -thus giving the firm -that
achieves it first a competitive boost.
Specialised approaches aimed at meeting the needs of small-
and medium sized enterprises may be advisable.
Usa of a regular -sans to monitor progress and report results
to the public,
Enforcement of liability laws for environmental damage.
A strong, stable mechanism for regulatory review and, when
needed, to initiated regulatory reform.
Regular use of information mechanisms to inform tne public
about environmental risks and promote favorable public
opinion concerning cleaner production technologies.
Incorporation of cleaner production technology concepts into
educational programs at all levels of education.
Employment of means to favor demand for cleaner products to
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the extent practicable.
Judicious use of economic instruments to achieve a llevel
playing field'.
Proactive research and development concerning cleaner
production technologies.
If possible, promotion of life-cycle costing for all capital
cost allocations*
Removal of government impediments to development and
deployment of cleaner production technologies.
Government procurement initiatives that promote cleaner
production technologies and products.
Support for technology transfer mechanisms to stimulate
utilization of cleaner production technologies in the U.S.
and abroad.
R. References
*
[1] World Commission on Environment and Development, 0_ur,
Coittmon Future (Oxford University Press, Oxford, 1987).
[2] T, Jackson (Editor) CjLean Productip_n_Strateg:ies
iprefage^l, Stockholm Environnent Institute, Lewis
Publishers, London (1993); (a) [Chapter 6] Hazardous
Futures.
[3] QECD, Government Policy Options to Encourage Cleaner
Production and Products in the 1990s. QCDE/GE(92)127,
Organization for Economic Cooperation' and Development,
2 rue Andre Pascal, 75775 Paris CEDEX IS, France (1992).
[4] H. Yakowitz and R. Hanaer, "Policy Options - Encouraging
Cleaner Production in the 1990s," Im T, Jackson (Editor)
Clean Production Strategies. Stockholm Environment
Institute, Lewis Publishers, London (1993).
[5] OECD, The State of the EnvirQittBeni;t OECO (Paris, 1991).
[6] U.S. EPA, Environmental Investments: The Cost: of a Clean
Environment., Washington, D,C. (1990).
H. Dorfman, A. White, M, Becker and T. Jackson,
^Profiting from Pollution Prevention, In; T. Jackson
(Editor) Clean production _Strategiesf Stockholm
Environment Institute, Lewis Publishers, London (1993).
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[8] L. Baas, H. Hoffman, D. Huisingh, J, Huisingh, P. Koppert
and F. Neumann, Prjafces-tion of.tne___North Sea' Time for
Clean Production. Erasmus Centre for Environmental
Studies, Erasmus University, Rotterdam (1990).
[9] Sheldon K. Friedlander, "Environmental Issues:
Implications for Engineering Design and Education," In:
Technology and Environment. J, Ausubel and H. Sladovich
(Editors), National Academy Press, Washington, D.C.
(1989).
[10] J.H. Ausubel, "Regularities in Technological Development:
An Environmental View,,1* In: Technology and Environment,
J. Ausubel and H, Sladovich (Editors), National Academy
Press, Washington, D.C. (1989), p. 70,
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SOCIETAL PRESSURES FOR THE REDEVELOPMENT
OF INDUSTRIAL SITES AND REMEDIATED LAND
Prepared for
Futures Project Report by the Environmental
Engineering Committee (EEC) of the Science Advisory
Board (SAB), U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
A- GLOBAL GO AX
The U,S, Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) is primarily responsible
for developing technical and regulatory schemes for protecting human health and
the environment. During the past fifteen years, the Agency has orchestrated efforts
to identify and mitigate both environmental and human health risks. With all other
factors held constant, the potential for environmental and human health damages is
directly proportional to the level of exposure to suessors. Consequently, the Agency
has justifiably considered exposure assessment as an important element of risk
assessment.
The potential exposure of each segment of the U.S. population to undesirable
environmental stressors is location-specific. Therefore, the rate of growth and
spatial distribution of population within a given region have indirect but profound
influences on. human and environmental exposure to various sources of pollutants,
The rate of change and distribution pattern 01 ^upulation depeaa ^n a host of socio-
economic factors, the interactions of which change dynamically with time. A deep
appreciation of the relationships between socio-economic factors and environmental
stress factors, the probable future bounds for the variability of these relationships,
and the trend of evolution of environmental control technologies will enable the
Agency to develop appropriate schemes for mitigating risk*
The scarcity and high cost of land in urban areas, coupled with increasing
urbanization of the U.S. population, will increase the pressure to redevelop
abandoned industrial sites and remediated land. Within the next thirty years, one of
the following scenarios is likely to develop in metropolitan areas.
Inyang and Preslo
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• Increase in the population density of suburban, centers and greener sites at
the expense of the proximal inner city areas.
* Retention of large populations by inner city areas with, only moderate
increases in the population of suburban areas.
The occurrence of any of these two scenarios will result in the scarcity of land
within and/or near metropolitan centers. Consequently, many of the abandoned
industrial sites and remediated land which are presently fallow due to real or
perceived risks and liability will likely be developed. The interactions of the driving
factors for site redevelopment in both scenarios are largely different although there
are some common elements. The driving factors include prospective increase in
profits to site developers, advances in site remediation technology, population
increase, socio-economic trade-offs, and increase in the magnitude of liability risk
acceptable to developers and ouyers as land scarcity drives up housing costs. The U.S.
EPA needs to develop proactive schemes to address both the policy and technical
issues that will attend this category of land recycling.
B, &ACKGRQUND OM SITE INVENTORY
There is an exceedingly large number of contaminated sites in the United
States, GAO (1993a) estimates that 3,400 facilities out of about 4,300 in the RCRA
universe may be releasing waste into the environment. The Department of Defense
(DOD) controls about 10,924 active hazardous waste sites at more than 1,800 domestic
military installations in the United States (Sidel, 1993). Table 1 (Chu et a!., 1992)
shows the distribution of 7,150 former military sites _by state of location. A
component of the comprehensive plan of the DOD Installation Restoration Program
(IRP) is the redevelopment of remediated sites, GAO (1993b) reports that the U.S.
Department of Energy (UJ. DOE) estimates that it may close about 1,700 facilities
within the next 30 years. Presently, the US DOE has approximately 4,000 sites to
remediate, and it is also estimated that more than 250,000 underground storage tank
sites presently need to be cleaned up (HMCRl, 1993). Briefing statements released by
U.S. EPA (1991b) indicated tliat its Superfund Program has evaluated 31,000 sites out of
a total universe that could exceed 50,000. Between 250 and 300 of these sites require
remedial actions each year,
Iflyang and Preslo
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In addition to the sites mentioned above, several former industrial sites are
located in metropolitan areas. In many cases, the businesses that once occupied them
have left for other regions that may have better economic prospects. In some cases,
these businesses operated outdated industrial plants and could not meet pollutant
emission requirements of sensitive, highly populated areas (e.g., the Los Angeles
Basin).
Adequate data collection on the proximity of abandoned and remediated sites to
metropolitan areas has not been conducted by appropriate agencies. Nevertheless, ii
is generally observed that most industrial cities in the northern region of the United
States and some southern and western cities have very high concentrations of
abandoned sites. These cities include Chicago, Boston, Detroit, Philadelphia,
Washington, D.C., Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Miami, Los Angeles, and smaller cities
such as Omaha, Fargo and Des Moines, It is a fair assumption that more than 9096 of
the leaking underground storage tank sites that will be remediated are located within
metropolitan areas. There is a high probability that the redevelopment of a
significant proportion of the different categories of sites discussed above will become
very attractive within the next thirty years. Among the structures that will be built
on such sites are residential houses, parking garages, warehouses, tunnels, roadways,
monuments and office buildings.
C. SCENARIOS
In Scenario 1, inner city dwellers will migrate to suburban areas and greener
sites.--The driving factors for this scenario are infrastructure decay in inner city
areas, increase in crime rate that may correspond with higher unemployment rates
in city centers, and greater availability of white-collar employment opportunities in
city suburbs. In essence, this scenario hinges on the justifiable assumption that the
middle class, which, has the luxury of means, wiU flee the inner city areas to greener
pastures. The capability to flee undesirable conditions will determine the population
zonation pattern envisaged in Scenario 1, The most probable consequences of this
scenario are itemfeed below.
* EquiEbration of population densities over large regional areas.
* Decrease in the tax base of inner cities as they retain residents that are
mostly within, the low income bracket.
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L J
Table 1. Inventory of formerly used defense sites (Cfau et al. 1992).
NUMBER OF
STATE SITES STATE
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
District of Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
ndiana
owa
Cansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
vfaine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
130
547
182
91
847
97
35
29
m
518
101
378
66
72
69
35
119
24
73
97
74
233
138
63
132
85
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
Territories
TOTAL
NUMBER OF
SITES
106
105
43
26
122
226
268
94
67
82
87
123
no
56
100
92
S3
323
34
13
172
284
- 23
67
70
139
7,150 sites
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• Attraction of coitage industries to inner cities will occur due to new
incentives that will be provided by city administrators. These industries
will need space for facilities and, consequently, fcinner industrial sites and
remediated land will become prime redevelopment targets.
* Land will also become scarce and expensive iii suburban areas, in
consistence with increased demand that wUl result from the influx of new
residents.
In Scenario 2, the population of inner cities will increase excessively while
the suburbs experience only moderate population increases. The driving forces for
this scenario are high levels of immigration and high birth rate of population
segments in the low income bracket. These new residents will initially prefer to
settle in large urban centers, where unskilled labor is still in high demand relative
to rural and suburban areas- Also, it is generally believed that ethnic ties to earlier
immigrants to U.S. cities promote the congregation of new immigrants in the inner
cities. Despite the expected increase in the population of inner cities, the mobility of
residents to the suburbs in reasonably large numbers could be impeded by their lack
of white-collar skill? and financial resources. This scenario is likely to produce the
following consequences within the next 30 years.
« A population imbalance in favor of inner city areas in large metropolitan
areas.
• Socio-economic and environmental pressures will force city planning
units of metropolitan governments to seek novel ways of maximizing the
use of central urban space, including former industrial sites.
• Developers will capitalize on the exceedingly high demand for housing
business centers, and perhaps light industrial facilities in central urban
areas by purchasing and redeveloping former industrial sites and
remediated/contaminated land.
» Increased utilization of underground space in areas of high population
density,
The two scenarios that are discussed in the preceding paragraphs will each
promote the redevelopment of abandoned industrial sites and other sites that are
presently classified as being contaminated. However, the interactions among the
significant driving 'factors discussed in Section D are largely different. An
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appreciation of these factors is a requirement for the development of adequate
schemes to respond to policy and technological needs.
D. MAJOR DRIVING FACTORS FOR 4ANp 1EDEVJLQPMENT
The major driving factors for land redevelopment are population increase,
socio-economic trade-offs, legal liability and risk acceptability, and advances in
technology,
1* Pogui^Qg Increase
The total population of the United States, as of August 1, 1993, is estimated by
the Census Bureau (1993a) at 258,479,000. This population represents a 3.7 percent
increase over the 1980 estimate by the same Bureau, The middle series projection
(Census Bureau, 1993b) indicates that the U.S. population will increase by 50 percent
from about 255 million in 1992 to 383 million by the year 2050. This is based on
assumptions of 2,1 births per woman, an average life expectancy of 82,1 years by
2050, and an annual net immigration of 880,000. The lowest series estimate for the
year 2030, the time frame which corresponds reasonably to the Futures Project
analysis period, is 287 million. This is based on assumptions of 1.8 births per woman,
an average life expectancy of 75.3 years, and an annual net immigration of 350,000.
Estimates by the United Nations (1985) show that in 1980, only 15.8 percent of
the global population resided in cities of 4 million and above. By the year 2025, about
24.5 percent of the global population will reside in megtcities. Ithin our context,
each megacity comprises the inner city and the suburbs. Population distribution
data (Census Bureau, 1993c) indicate that out of a total U.S. population of about 249
million in 1990, 78.8 million and 79.4 million resided in central urban and urban
fringes (comparable to suburbs), respectively. Although future urbanization rates
are expected to be higher in the developing countries than in the United States, even
moderate influx of new residents into metropolitan areas and high birth rates of
people who reside in those areas are likely to cause acute scarcity of urban space in
most cities. •
It should be noted that the population wiE not necessarily increase in all U.S.
cities. Furthermore, the spatial distribution of population within each metropolitan
area (conglomerated cities and suburbs) is a more relevant parameter than the
population itself, to the two scenarios outlined above. In Table 2. data for some very
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large U.S. cities indicate average annual population growth rates that range from
0,2% for Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania to 3,33% for Phoenix, Arizona. In Scenario 1, it is
envisaged that for most U.S. cities, large segments of the city" 'population will move to
suburbs and other lower density areas within the metropolitan areas,
The resulting spatial zonation pattern of population will vary from pockets of
affluence dispersed within urban blight to concentric rings in which the segments
with longer radii are inhabited by residents with better economic resources* New
York represents the former, and Minneapolis exemplifies the latter. Essentially, the
suburbs and cleaner enclaves within metropolitan areas will need land for both
residential and business real estate, a situation that will increase the scarcity and cost
of land. A direct consequence will be an increase in the pressure for the
redevelopment of the increasing number of brown sites in the suburbs. Also,
Scenario t will eventually lead to the redevelopment of abandoned and remediated
sites even in the inner city areas that may experience significant population flight,
In Scenario 2, the inner, cities will retain larger segments of the projected
increases in population. This situation could be promoted by improvements in the
implementation of socio-economic schemes such as affordable housing,
environmental sanitation, crime control and underground space development. The
enhancement of the desirability of residing in city core areas will increase the
demand for, and costs of real estate dramatically. Even in the absence of this factor,
new immigrants are likely to be trapped in inner city areas (for example, South
Central and East Los Angeles) for a number of years for socio-economic reasons. The
immigration rate to which reference is made above, will sustain high population
densities in city cores thereby building pressure for the redevelopment of
abandoned sites. In the scenario, the lower density of population in the suburbs may
increase the attractiveness of the latter sites for new industrial plants, as exemplified
by present-day Oklahoma City and Milwaukee. In Scenario 2, this spatial model will
become more ubiquitous.
T*rade-;pjfs
Market forces will play* a significant role in land redevelopment in urban
areas. Construction and industrial activities often effect immediate impacts on
employment rates. City planners may be inclined to weigh employment goals against
potential environmental concerns. For private developers, zoning and tax
concessions, which could be the instruments of enticement, could make the
redevelopment of former industrial sites attractive. The high rates of housing and
Inyang and Preslo
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real estate development in U.S. cities relative to available space will promote this type
of land recycling. Data presented in Table 2 show 1992 housing and population data
compiled from information gathered by UI1 (1993) for sojme major U.S. cities. The
number of new housing units built in 1992 exceeded 20,000 in some U.S.' cities. While
these data do not show housing imbalance in favor of inner cities, it is fair to assume
that increase in housing and real estate development will translate to the
development of brown sites in most parts of cities owing to the finite number of
regular sites available.
Redevelopment activities usually revitalize industries such as those in
construction, insurance, hardware sales, and road construction. Construction
activities are generally labor-intensive and thus can provide employment for a large
number of laborers. Municipal governments will continue to cherish increases in
construction activities because the latter can reduce unemployment rates.
Interestingly, Table 1 shows that California has the highest number of reclamable
military sites. California also has very high unemployment rates. The expected
translation of this situation to many regional cities of the United States will constrain
municipal governments to provide incentives to developers in schemes constructed
to reduce unemployment in inner city areas. Incentives will most likely be highest
for the development of abandoned industrial sites. This is particularly likely in
Scenario I which involves the flight of manufacturers and economically buoyant
persons to the suburbs or richer city enclaves. Tax breaks constitute an example of
an incentive which tiunkipal governments wiE use to arrest the flight of companies
and attract new companies and residents. These schemes imply that space will
become scarce again, leading to the dev-lopm*1*^ of most availabH spaces.
- Incidentally, most major cities in the United States are currently initiating
urban infrastructure improvement projects. One of the important elements of these
plans is the attraction of manufacturing companies, most of which usually need
considerable space for plants and offices. One of such cities is Detroit, Michigan. In
addition, the current U.S. Administration plans to develop "enterprise zones" in inner
city areas. The President's Council on Sustainable Development (SCTF, 1993) is
currently assessing options for promoting sustainable reuse of abandoned industrial
sites, dosed military bases and other government property. These options include
changes in zoning codes and regulations, lending and insurance practices, and
future liability responsibility.
Economic considerations have already made California's Abandoned Site
Project management team consider contaminated site redevelopment as a viable
Inyang and Preslo
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option in cases that incorporate appropriate schemes to mitigate human health risks.
Anderson and Hatayama (1988) describe plans to redevelop a Bethlehem Steel
Company site in South San Francisco, and a Hercules Powder Company Site in
Hercules, both in California, A number of other case-histories in the United States
are described by U.S. EPA (1986). The locations, characteristics and post-
redevelopment ianduse of some of these sites are presented in Table 3. Within the
next thirty years, this practice will become widespread in the United States, In
conformity with the trend in European countries (particularly, Britain), where land
is very scarce in metropolitan areas,
3, Legal liability apd Risjc .Acceptability
Currently, liability concerns discourage potential developers from purchasing
contaminated land for subsequent redevelopment. Zimmerman (1992) reports that
numerous court decisions have supported laws that hold purchasers of contaminated
property liable for incidents of contamination regardless of whether or not
environmental problems stem from prior use of such properties by previous owners.
Potential developers are currently cautious about acquiring contaminated property
because commercial general liability (CGL) insurance policies which they hold,
contain exclusion clauses for damage from such pollution incidents. Some states
have enacted legislation (Greenthal and Millspaugh, 1988), exemplified by New
Jersey's Environmental Cleanup Responsibility Act (ECRA), which outlaws the
transfer of contaminated property. In most other states, developers can purchase
contaminated property and assume the associated liability risks. In a discussion of
this issae, M:Gregor (1988) note- that potential developers could onsider deducting
cleanup costs from the sale price of properties during the negotiation stage.
The liability concerns which currently impede the transfer and
redevelopment of former industrial sites and other types of contaminated land, may
wane significantly within the next thirty years. There are some indicators that
changes in regulatory climate will favor land redevelopment. As reported in the
Inside EPA (1993), some Congressional members have contemplated the developement
of a Superfund Reauthorization bill that will include regulatory support for the
redevelopment of urban industrial sites. The U.S. Supreme Court sided recently
(Schulte, 1993) with a South Carolina businessman against the State of South Carolina
in an environment-related litigation over his right to determine the beneficial
Ianduse for bis property.
Inyatig and Preslo
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Table 2, Population and housing data for 1992 for some major U.S. cities.
(compiled from UU, 1993),
crnr
Atlanta, GA
Chicago, IL
Columbus, OH
Detroit, MI
Jacksonville, Fl_
Miami, FL
Nashville, TN
New York, NY
Philadelphia, PA
Pittsburgh, PA
Washington, DC
Dallas/Ft Worth, TX
Houston, TX
Los Angeies, CA
3hoenix, AZ
St, Louis, MO
San Francisco, CA
Seattle, WA
POPULATION
1992
(Thousands)
2,932.0
7,400.0
1,418.2
4,361, Z
935.0
1,993.8
1,028.0
7,388.5
4,91 S.6
2,322.2
4.0T4.0
4.04Z.6
3,900.0
9,087.0
2,236.0
2,452.0
3,786.0
2,888.4
Average
Annual
Growth
1980-92
(Percent)
2.70
0.30
1,10
0.20
2.20
1.72
1.60
0.40
0,30
0.20
1.90
2.72
1,70
1.60
3J3
0.26
1.30
Z.1Q
199Z HOUSING DATA
Number
of Units
(Thousands^
1,216.0
-
577.3
1,725.4
3S6.5
790,7
233.2
2,986,3
1,939.4
960.0
1,597.0
1,686.6
1,546.7
3,221.2
836.4
1,025.2
1,546.1
1,194.4
New Units
in 1992
(Thousands)
36.0
24. 2
8.4
14.7
5,8
8.0
1.9
2.4
12.3
5.4
2,1.9
20.8
18.8
11.3
17.7
5.3
8.9
26.4
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Table 3: Characteristics of some redeveloped sites in the United States.
Site Owner (or Name)
and Location
Residual or Original
Contamination
Principal Exposure
Reduction Measure
Post-Development
Land Use
References
Boucher Landfill site
Huntington ieach, California
U.SA.
etroteum refinery wastes
benzene, tutuene. etc,)
Excavation of highly
contaminated material, prior
o buildnflconstruction
iestdentW building (ZS8
unit*)
Andermon and Hatayarrm
368
letKlehem
ite, South Sim Francisco
California, U.S.A.
Heavy metals (zinc and
chromium,), acids and PCS.
Excavation, ttewatering, and a
-foot toil cover.
2-story office
Anderson and Hat ay Mia
1988
Hercules Powder Company
, Hercules, California,
U.&A.
Heavy met al> (Lead and zinc)
nd organic *xplo»ivpa
of the primary
source
eaiduum,
Single-family houses, park>,
iodi, and pltcyflround* on
an extensive area
Anderson and Hatayama
19B&
B.
H*
O
.dlog Terrace, Gfdler
Development Company,
Yorba Unda, California, US, A.
Lead, artenlc and aliphatic and
aromatic hydrocarbon*.
Excavation prior to
construction.
iesidentiat condominium*
(224 unit*)
U.S. EPA, 1936.
Annapolis Road sites,
Baltimore. Maryland, U.S.A.
Organic advents, zirconium,
corrosive Ii<|uids, and catirrtiurn.
Removal of drums, pumping of
waste liquids and oroundwat<*,
and excavation of debris prior to
construction
Office building that houses
the Maryland Department of
Health and a neighborhood park
U.S.EPA. 1986
Miami Drum sil«,
Miami, Florida. U.S.A.
Spilli containing phenols, heavy
metal) t oik and grease, and
pestteldea.
Excavation of Nghfy contaminated
debrti, in situ treatment of
groundwater, and non-removal
of marginally contaminated geo-
matefiah.
Maintenance faaiity for the
Dade County Transit
Authority
U.S.EPA. 198$
Gas Works Park, Seattle,
Seattle, Washington, US A.
porycydic
aromatlcs
-------
Recently, the State House of Pennsylvania passed two bills aimed at promoting
the redevelopment of abandoned sites. In one of the bills," legislators seek to limit
liability for purchasers of former industrial sites. The .second bill would limit
environmental liability for development agencies that provide loans to developers of
abandoned properties. The Pennsylvania Senate is considering other bills which
would exempt candidate sites from stringent cleanup specifications and provide
grants for clean up of industrial sites, respectively. In general, the legal liability
climate is changing in favor of site redevelopment.
4. Advance^ in Jechnojogy
It has not been possible to attain desirable cleanup standards in a cost-
effective manner at many contaminated sites. For sites at which groundwater is
contaminated, pump-and-treat schemes are most often used in remediation.
Unfortunately, there is a limitation on the level to which a site can be cleaned up
using technologies that are based on the removal of contaminants by hydraulic
pressure differential Other cleanup technologies such as electrokinetics, steam
flushing and surfactant-enhanced soil washing have been proven to be adequate
only in bench-scale studies and controlled field experiments. Federal regulations for
site remediation tend to promote the implementation of "best available technology",
most of which are very new. Residual concentrations which may remain at
prospective sites for redevelopment are still of concern to developers and potential
owners, • Long-term exposure of housing residents to residual contaminants is still a
major concern even if such a concern is not supported by exposure assessments and
toxicqlogical evidence. Given the current regulatory climate and available
technology, perfect cleanup is not achievable, thus a combination of risk
management and remedial technology management should be employed in the
redevelopment land for beneficial uses.
Contaminant cleanup technologies are evolving at a rapid enough pace to lay
credence on the assumption that within the next thirty years, it wiE be possible to
remove residual concentrations of contaminants cost-effectively. This implies that at
a large number of sites, the post-cleanup risk assessments wiE indicate potential
human exposures that are low enough to support the redevelopment of the sites
concerned. It is reasonable to expect that in thirty years, the fear factor will
dissipate substantially, in response to improvements in public education and
awareness on environmental issues.
Inyang and Preslo
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Urban cores and suburbs will be linked by high speed transportation within
the next few decades. This situation will follow the trend set by Japan in response to
high urban population. It will be possible for residents of inriipr city areas to work in
far-flung places and vice-versa. This development is likely to favor Scenario 2. A
large segment of the city population will prefer to reside where social services are
plentiful but commute to work in the suburbs and beyond. A plausible argument can
be made to support the contrary: in the sense that computer information systems
will advance to the extent that wherever one lives, social services will be available.
However, the affordability factor and the desirability of ethnic community support
systems will place constraints on deviations from Scenario 2, Essentially, the
expected implementation of large-scale mass transit technologies exemplified by
high speed magnetically levitated trains (MAGLEV), will indirectly enhance the
conditions that characterize Scenario 2.
E. DESIRABLE SITUATIO ATD
The occurrence of either of the two scenarios discussed above will result in
increased pressure for the redevelopment of former industrial sites and remediated
land. It is desirable that schemes be developed for monitoring the evolution of socio-
economic and technological conditions, and developing programs to forestall
environmental auad human health problems that may arise.
The redevelopment of brown sites has both economic and indirect
environmental benefits. In the proceeding sections, the driving factors which
include socio-economic advantages from the perspectives of the state and local
agencies, and developers have been discussed. In environmental protection terms, it
is worthy to note that the development of remediated sites (brown fields) implies the
conservation of dean sites (green fields), a situation that is desirable with respect to
overall public interest. It is within U.S. EPA's mission to ensure that redevelopment
is implemented with safeguards against environmental and human health damage.
Toward this end, the existence of the following situations within the next thirty years
is desirable.
• Availability of data on population and spatial growth patterns of U.S. cities.
* Availability of data on the number and distribution of both abandoned and
operating industrial sites relative to large population centers*
and Preslo
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• Availability of centralized information resources on liability laws and
trends relevant to site redevelopment.
• Existence of comprehensive schemes for integrating site redevelopment
into city and regional plans.
* Existence of federal policies with adequate latitude for local jurisdictional
controls on redevelopment,
* Availability of technical schemes and research data for addressing issues
such as residual contaminant migration, exposure and risk assessments for
site redevelopment, relevant cleanup standards, foundation systems in
residually contaminated land, occupational health and safety, and
environmental equity.
• Availability of expertise within U.S. EPA to address these issues.
Unfortunately, these desirable situations will not evolve unless the leading
environmental control agency, the U.S. EPA takes the initiative to develop internal
programs and form appropriate partnerships for addressing the issues discussed in
the next section.
F, ASSpgSMEN'L OF JO.S. EPA^S REAOfNESS. AKDRECOMMENDATIONS
Some elements of U.S. EPA's programs are adaptable to schemes that can
address some aspects of the issue of industrial and contaminated site development.
However, in general, available schemes are inadequate for i * \eving the goals
outlined M Section £, U.S. EPA's readiness in key policy and technical areas are
briefly discussed below. Recommendations are also made on approaches to
developing and implementing schemes to address relevant issues.
1. Para ^feeds on Siye Inventory and gpatia| Distribution
U.S. EPA (1986) documented some case-histories involving site redevelopment
in the United States. Subsequently, this issue has gone forward without adequate
tracking by the Agency. In addition, information on important parameters such as
the total number of industrial sites in cities and their spatial distribution within such
cities is lacking. Some military sites which are candidate sites for redevelopment
may currently be exempt from U,S. EPA regulations. Nevertheless, information needs
Inyang and Freslo
-------
to be collected because a central repository for this information, is needed. With
respect to data collection, the recommendations outlined below are made to improve
U.S. EPA's readiness.
?
* Establishment of alliance with municipal governments to acquire and
analyze location and site characterization data on abandoned industrial and
closed military sites on a continuing basis.
* Use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to reference the location of
remediated and industrial sites relative to large population centers.
• Compilation and storage of data on site-specific problems, risk management
decisions and liability laws that are relevant to the redevelopment of sites.
Collaboration with the States and local authorities is essential.
2* Site RedeyeJogmern: and City/Regional Planning
The U.S, EPA has hitherto played no role in providing guidance to local
governments and the states in the area of planning although those plans, when
implemented, have significant bearing on environmental pollution and hence,
human health. At a minimum, an advisory role by the Agency on City Planning and
Zoning activities may enhance the implementation of reasonably uniform policies
on site redevelopment across the country. This participation would also indirectly
benefit other aspects of the Agency's budding programs for local communities,
exemplified by Environmental Equity, In this regard, the following
recommendations are made,
* Development of schemes to help local agencies in the formulation of
zoning regulations to protect environmentally sensitive sites from
excessive redevelopment.
* Involvement of the Agency in sustainable development forums that address
the interrelationships among site redevelopment, urban renewal, legal
liability, risk management, employment and transportation system
efficiency.
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3. ExpQsure_Assgssment and Site Cleanup Lgyets
Currently, cleanup levels for contaminated sites vary from one state to
another. The issue of "how clean is clean?" has still not bete settled yet. Existing
cleanup standards have been largely developed without consideration of future
landuse and risk management. The expected increase in remediated land
redevelopment is a compeEing argument for the integration of future landuse into
contaminant cleanup standards for land. For sites that are candidates for future
development, such cleanup standards should be credibly tied to the numerical regime
of the risk of expo'-r* of future residents or workers to residual levels of
contaminants. Since the risk level depends partly on the design conservatism of yet-
to-be-determined structural configurations, exact apriori analyses are not attainable.
Nevertheless, information on the numerical regime of health risk will suffice as the
basis for specifying relevant cleanup standards.
Both deterministic and probabilistic methods of risk assessment have been
advocated for inclusion in U.S. EPA's risk management strategy for contaminated
sites. Equation 1 represents the general configuration of the current U.S. EPA
exposure assessment numerical relationship. It is herein used only for illustrating
the relationship between exposure and facility design. There are several other
exposure equations.
IN- [
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the time of occupancy, respectively, of the facility constructed on the site. The
residual concentration and transport characteristics of contaminants across the
structural components into inhabited spaces affect exposure indirectly through
direct effects on parameter C Exposure is also affected by the type of structure. Over
a reasonable time period (e.g., 1 year), people spend more time in residential housing
than in warehouses and parking ramps. Equation 1 illustrates that this situation
affects the exposure frequency. These factors should be considered by the U.S. EPA
in the development of cleanup standards for contaminated sites slated for
redevelopment. In general, the following recommendations are made,
* Review of current exposure and risk assessment methods to assess their
adaptability to site redevelopment schemes.
* Development of numerical regimes of human health and environmental
risks for redevelopment to provide developers with general data (with a
caution that site-specific assessments are necessary).
• Assessment of the occupational health and environmental equity issues
that are associated with site redevelopment.
* Specification of cleanup standards based on potential site reuse.
4 lagineeriag Mffigatton Schemes for Structures
A preliminary analysis of the geoenvironmental engineering aspects- of
contaminated site development was. made by U.S. EPA (1993). However,
comprehensive geotechnical fhemes have neither .been, developed yet by the
Agency nor implemented widely by industry. During the past decade, die U.S. EPA in
collaboration with local and other federal agencies, has developed geostmctural
systems for controlling human exposure to radon and its decay products at
problematic sites. The conceptual configuration of one of these systems is shown, in
Figure 1. Other configurations and techniques are illustrated and discussed- by U.S,
EPA (1991W and Murane (1993). Although some of these- schemes may be adaptable
with modifications, to mitigating residual contaminant transport in the vapor phase
from soils into inhabited space, additional schemes need to be developed by the IJLS,
EPA.
Residual contaminants can migrate in the vapor, liquid and solid phases at
contaminated sites under suitable geohydrotogical and other environmental
conditions. The geotechnlcal design of the structural foundation system is also one of
Inyang and Preslo
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the determinants of contaminant migration potential. Realizations at gas stations
above leaking tanks indicate that flaws in buildings can serve as conduits for
contaminant entry. The development of such flaws in the-'.long-terra in structures
t
can be enhanced by the structural instability of foundation site soils. Unfortunately,
contaminated soil strength which will be an important parameter with respect to the
stability of structural foundations in reclaimed industrial and contaminated sites, is
not of significant concern in current U.S. EPA site assessment schemes.
The recommendations for improving the Agency's readiness in the
geoenvtroomental area are as follow:
* Development of general schemes for relating the design of geotechnical
foundation schemes to exposure parameters,
* Integration of foundation stability assessments into contaminated site
characterization schemes.
* Collaboration with the external geotechnical community to develop and
evaluate protective foundation schemes for structures on reclaimed
industrial sites as a natural follow-up to the issues discussed in U.S. EPA
(1993).
5. EducaQon.Research and In-house Expertise
In some cases where the potential exposure levels will be proven to be
insignificant, some prospective residents of houses built on remediated land will still
be fearful of residing in such houses. Community education schemes are
recommended to minimize the fear factor where risks have been successfully
mitigated.
The high prospects for large-scale land redevelopment in the U.S. requires
that research be conducted on several relevant topics among which are the
following.
* Contaminant attenuation characteristics of building materials*
• Effects of residual contaminants on soil strength.
* Barrier and sealants for controlling contaminant entry into structures.
* Identification and assessment of exposure scenarios relevant to
contaminated site development.
* Interactions of socio-economic factors in contaminated site development.
Inyaag and Preslo
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• Comparative economics and environmental benefits of green versus brown
i
sites development,
» Automatic sensing systems for contaminants in inhabited spaces.
i,
The implementation of the recommendations made in this section will require
the retention of a critical mass of in-house expertise by the Agency in relevant
disciplinary areas. Unfortunately, most of the relevant issues need to be integrated
directly into U.S. EPA's programs and, hence, cannot be effectively managed by
external contractors on a continuous basis. In addition, some of the issues involve
the creation of policies which have significant technical components.
The Agency's laboratory personnel, technical analysts and work program
managers are unlikely to cover all the technical grounds necessary to develop
effective policies and technical schemes to address the issue of site redevelopment.
These issues involve contaminant migration modeling, geotechnical reliability
analysis, socio-economic theory, spatial data analysis, toxicology, soil and
groundwater reclamation science, and geohydrology as major disciplinary areas.
While the Agency retains expertise at the program management level in these areas,
hands-on analysts with expertise on the issues described above are very few at the
Agency, In particular, geotechnical expertise is almost non-existent in the entire
Agency, perhaps due to the fact that relevant issues have traditionally been treated
marginally within the general framework of environmental engineering. An
improvement in in-house expertise is recommended. The Agency also needs to
improve its collaborative efforts with other federal agencies such as the National
Science Foundation and the National Institute of Health.
G. qQHS^gQirefrKf^5 Qf DELAYED ACTTOEf
The U.S. EPA needs to formulate policies and develop technical support
schemes for integrating site redevelopment issues into its current and future
regulatory and technical support programs. The undesirable consequences of
delaying action until the occurrence of any of the two scenarios discussed above are
outlined below.
Inyang and Preslo
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Radon
Radon Gas Rushing Tub*
N«flv*S6l ' A . T- f"-^ "'A- "'i1 '! " ''" V' S*C .f,
'». . - '/'"«f-.j«u;'*r '- f*"-« ' V,~^c-w'-'^'h^'*»--'Vi#?;-'^>*/«..;'%s'•' - "'-^f
: /^;? h'^^fc^ipM^f S^^^'iti^*^
-,,^f ' .r,^, .<•„ ,.•
-«;^,^v^v
Figure 1. A conceptual scheme for controlling radon entry into a residential
structure.
Inyaiig axxd Preslo
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The Agency will be forced to develop remedial rather than preventive
\
schemes for mitigating potential harzards from reuse of abandoned arid
remediated industrial sites and installations.
Liability concerns may force developers to target greener sites, which can
be spared instead of abandoned industrial sites and remediated laud which
can be beneficially utilized.
It would take several years to appreciate the relevant occupational health
hazards subsequent to uncontrolled redevelopment activities. I
The Agency would miss an opportunity to contribute to urban renewal
projects which will eventually influence its programs such as
Environmental Equity and Risk Assessment.
Employment opportunities which would be created by urban site
redevelopment projects would be missed.
H. CONCLUSIONS
Redevelopment of former industrial sites and other sites that may not fee
entirely clean will become more prevalent witMn the next thirty years. Changes!in
regulatory climate, socio-economic factors, risk acceptability and technological
advances wiU serve as catalysts for this category of land recycling. Currently, the
U.S. EPA does not have adequate policy and technical schemes to address the issues
that will emerge. Considering that proactive schemes are generally more cast-
effective than remedial schemes, the U.S. EPA has unique opportunities to develop
schemes apriori to support and control the aspects of this issue that will fajl within
its mandate of protecting human health and the environment. Such schemes! if
implemented wisely, can serve the interest of the U.S. public without stifling
economic growth. This objective is relevant to the overall concept of sustainable
development.
I. REFERENCES }
•*^•^•••••i' ,
Anderson, J.K. and Hatayama, H.K. 1988. Beneficial reuses of hazardous waste sites in
California, Monograph Series. Hazardous Materials Control Resources
Institute, Greenbelt, Maryland, pp. 28-32. 1
Inyang and Preslo
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Ceasus Bureau, 1993a, Estimates of die population of the United States to August 1,
1993. P25-HG7. Bureau of the Census, United States Department of Commerce,
Washington, DC.
Census Bureau. 1993b. How we are changing: demographic state of the nation.
Series P-23, No, 184, Current Population Reports, Special Studies, Bureau of the
Census, United States Department of Commerce, Washington, DC.
Census Bureau. 1993c. 1990 census of housing; general housing characteristics-
urbanized areas, 1990 Ch-l-lC, Bureau of the Census, United States Department
of Commerce, Washington, DC.
Chu, T.J., Wash, T.J, and Fellows, M,H. 1992. Etivfronmental restoration at formerly
used defense sites. Proc, 13th Annual National (HMC/Superftind) Conference,
Washington, D.C., pp. 258-261.
GAO. 1993a, Hazardous waste: much work remains to accelerate facility cleanups.
Report to Congressiotw1 Requesters. GAO/RCED-93-15. US General Accounting
Office, Washington, DC.
GAO. 1993b. Cleaning up inactive facilities will be difficult. GAO/RCED-93-149.
Report to the Chairman, Subcommittee on Investigations and Oversight,
Committee on Science, Space, and Technology, House of Representatives. US
General Accounting Office.
Greenthal, J.L. and Millspaugh, M.P. 1988. Implications of dealing with real estate-
based cleanup statutes and recommended measures for avoiding economic and
operational disruption. Proc. 9th National (Superfund) Conference,
Washington, DC,, pp.60-64
HMCRI, 1993 EPA report offers shopping list for cleanup technologies. Hazardous
Materials Control Resources Institute. Focus, Vol. 9, No. 7, pp.2.
Inside EPA, 1993. House member prepares first Superfund Bill: will stress reuse of
sites. Inside EPA, August* pp. 15.
McGregor, G.I. 1992. Buying and setting dirty real estate. Proc. 13th Annual National
(HMC/Superfund) Conference, Washington, DC, pp. 31-33.
Murane, D.M. 1993. Radon mitigation and prevention standards, ASTM
Standardkadon News, December, ASTM, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, pp. 40-43.
Schulte, B. 1993. Developer is gaining ground in national fight for property rights.
The Washington Post, Friday, December 31, pp.A4.
Sidel, V,W, 1993. Cleaning up: risk and risk reduction at military sites. U.S. Water
News, August, pp.7.
Inyang and Preslo
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SCTF. 1993, Sustainable development. Draft Report, Sustainable Communities Task
Force, President's Council on Sustainable Development, Washington, D.C,
UU 1993. Market profiles; Vol. I and II. Urban Land Institute, Washington, DC,
United Nations, 1985, Estimates and projections of urban, rural and city populations,
1950-2025;' the 1982 assessment. Department of International Economic and
Social Affairs, United Nations, New York*
U.S. EPA, 1993, Geotechnkal systems for structures on contaminated sites. EPA 530-
R-93-002: PB93-209 419. A Technical Guidance Document. Office of Solid Waste
and Emergency Response, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington,
DC
U.S. EPA, 199la. Superfund. Briefing Materials Presented to the Administrator, by
the Superfund Program, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington,
DC
U.S, EPA I991b, Radon-resistant construction techniques for new residential
construction. EPA/625/2-91/032, Technical Guidance Document. Office of
Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
Washington, DC,
U.S. EPA. 1986. Reclamation and redevelopment of contaminated land" Vol. 1 U.S. case
studies. EPA/6QQ/2-S6/066. Hazardous Waste Engineering Laboratory, U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency, Cincinnati, Ohio
Zimmerman, M.D, 1992, On shaky ground; property owner's options for managing
pollution liability. Hazmat World, March, pp* 45-46.
Inyang and-
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Appendix 3: Transient Phenomena
by
Dr. Frederick G. Pohland
Weidlein Chair of Environmental Engineering
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
University of Pittsburgh,
Pittsburgh, PA
-------
Final Draft of SAB EEC Futures -Project
Report on Transient Phenomena
Sub-Task Group Member: F. G. Ponland
March 1, 1994
Global Goal
With prime responsibility for safeguarding and enhancing the quality of the
environment and protecting human health, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
(EPA) must develop a state of readiness to respond to any natural or anthropogenic
threats, however engendered. Those threats that are posed on a continuum have received
more attention from both prevention and remediation perspectives, largely because they
frequently have recognizable and manageable spatial and temporal dimensions.- On the
other hand, less predictable transient phenomena, whose consequences may be shorter
lived but much more severe and devastating, are often only considered in passing and
unfortunately then only in a reactionary mode after the fact. This latter dilemma is
exacerbated by the frequent division of responsibility and authority when disaster strikes,
and the ability of available resources to take responsive action.
Since environment and human health are inextricably linked, with one affecting the
other directly and indirectly in cause/effect relationships, the imposition of a transient
phenomena as a driver may convert a hazard into a catastrophe. The magnitude and
intensity of these events are often measured in terms of human health and welfare, as
• well as environmental perturbations, a. domain often shared by EPA with other agencies.
Yet EPA has not been an active player or led the pertinent agenda for natural hazard pre-
**
paredness and/or mitigation, and if is currently not positioned to participate effectively
either in developing policy or providing assessment and technological guidance.
Pohland
-1-
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Issus
The issues involved with transient phenomena include-those elements of natural
#
hazards that manifest themselves in threats to the environment and to public health and
welfare. Although these phenomena encompass a broad array of events, including those
triggered or driven by hydrological phenomena, e.g., river and coastal floods or tropical
cyclones, and those consequenced by geological phenomena, e.g., earthquakes, volcanic
eruptions or landslides, the selected subordinate issue and its plausible and important
scenarios will deal specifically with the former, vis-a-vis riverine floods, and vulnerabilities
expressed in terms of risks to populations and the environment as well as approaches to
their mitigation.'
Background
There are many compelling reasons to consider transient phenomena, such as
floods, as a new and important area for EPA to embrace, and in that role help avert the
consequences that often transform such hazards into disasters, indeed, beyond the direct
impacts on lives and property, there remain many indirect consequences that are often too
"obscure or subtle to receive adequate attention, whether driven by accidental releases of
contaminants into the environment or malicious and/or opportunistic dumping. The
implications of such scenarios are far-reaching and cannot be attended to properly in the
disorder associated with the flood event, which often obliterates facts and disallows
reasoned and reliable accounting.
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Each year natural disasters kill thousands of people and imlict billions of dollars in
economic loss, in 1987, the United Nations Genera! Assembly adopted a resolution
declaring the 1990s the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction {IDNRDK The
j
U.S. Congress endorsed the concept in resolutions passed the following year, and a U.S.
National Committee was formed to develop a program for the nation* In a National
Research Council report (NRC, 1991), the Committee proposed a muttidlsciplinary program
that Integrates hazard and risk assessments; awareness and education; mitigation;
preparedness for emergency response, recovery and reconstruction; prediction and
warning; strategies for learning from disasters; and International cooperation. Nowhere
in this report was a role for EPA explicitly defined, and visible EPA representation in its
development and presentation was absent. Yet the area of mitigating and reducing the
impacts of natural disasters, i.e., protection of natural resources, research to improve
prediction of hydrologic hazards and impacts on natural resources, and coordination and
standardization of data collection, stands out as initiatives within the mission of EPA.
A disaster is said to occur when an extreme event coincides with a vulnerable
situation - surpassing society's ability to control or survive the consequences (The World
Bank, 1991). Not every crisis is £ potential disaster, but accelerated changes in
demography and economic trends cftsn disturb the balance, thereby increasing risks.
Moreover, natural disasters are often caused at least partly by man-made changes in the
natural settings adjacent to a vulnerable environmental compartment, e.g.* a river, and
there is evidence that worldwide incidence of deaths from extreme weather events
(typhoons, hurricanes, floods and draughts) has increased by 50 percent on average each
decade between 1900 and 1390, accelerating significantly since 1950 (OFDA, 1990).
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Likewise, the damage caused by such events has escalated - increasing faster than
population growth - with economic costs per decade increasing exponentially. Hence,
there appears to be an apparent correlation between the frequency and severity of a
?
natural disaster and environmental degradation, whether expressed in destruction of
vegetative cover or in terms of landless squatters who concentrate in fragile, often
marginal and orphaned areas, including those prone to flooding.
Floodplains particularly are at risk from riverine flooding and although they occupy
only a small fraction of most urbanized areas, they tend to be proportionately more
developed. For example, only 9.4% of the Boston urbanized area is in the floodplain, but
this area accounts for 19.1 % of the total developed area (Palm, 1990), This is compared
.to Denver where 50.5% is in the floodpiain but contains 62.2% of the total developed
area, and to Phoenix with 18,4% in the floodplain, but accounting for 89.2% of the
developed area. Hence, urbanization in flood-prone areas has predictable consequences,
whether manifested in accelerated runoff from rainfall events or water quality deterioration
due to translation of pollutants from urban sources. These and other ramifications can
be anticipated and often translate in terms of adverse impacts on human health and the
environment as depicted by the hazard sequence tree for thunderstorms in Figure 1.
Accounts of the consequences of flooding in the U.S. and throughout the world.
as exemplified by the recent floods .along the Mississippi River where property damage
exceeded $ 10 billion and large portions of the nine contiguous states were declared federal
disaster areas (National JSeographic, 1994), and the recent flooding along the Rhine,
Danube and smaller rivers in Germany, Francs, Belgium and the Netherlands {Reuters
lohland
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News Service, 1993S, underscore the urgency of attention to floods as a representative
new horizon of EPA concern. The challenges of safeguarding populations from hazardous
materials swept away by flooding along the Mississippi, monitoring pollutants from
unidentified sources, and restoring the integrity and dependability of -wastewater and
drinking water services constitute only a few issues on an agenda for action that involves
short-term and long-term implications for both policy and technological decisions.
Congress has mandated attention to such natural hazards, and EPA has a vital role to play
in its evolution.
Goals
To effectively contribute to an action plan for assessing and providing potential
remediation of the consequences of natural hazards in the area of floods, and to act
consonant with its mission as the lead environmental agency of the nation and in
accordance with the NRC Report recommendations, EPA win need to expand its current
activities and develop appropriate policies and strategies to address environmental and
health/welfare aspects of:
* Hazards and Risk Assessments
* Mitigation and Prevention
. * Emergency Response
*• Prediction and Warning
* Data Acquisition and Validation
* Education and Technology Transfer
Whereas floods can serve as a representative example, the effort should embrace
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the entire range of those natural disasters creating environmental ri$k$.
Objectives
*
Whereas the consequences of flooding {or other hazards) are evident, as is the
\
often lack of coordinated planning for or reacting to a given scenario, the benefits derived
from a proactive program in accordance with the indicated goals could include:
» Reduction in life and property losses
* Marginal land rehabilitation, zoning and conversion
• Safeguards against flood-derived contamination and its microscate and
mesoscale effects on human and natural resources
* Provisions for developing flood-specific data bases and guidance to the
public and private sectors
• Catalysts of research and development for innovative preventive and
remedial technologies,
» Beneficiation of EPA's image as important contributor to reducing impacts
of natural disasters and promoting a safer future for impacted populations.
Strategies and Methodologies
To effectively address the assessment and ability to respond to transient
phenomena such as natural disasters, it is considered prudent for EPA to recognize the
breadth and depth of cause/effect relationships inherent in particular driver events. This
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requires not only a sufficient understanding of the event, but how !t manifests itself within
the arena of impact. Therefore, an environmental impact assessment could be the primary
focus, allowing ancillary issues to play out as a particular scenario unfolds.
-4
*
There is already considerable understanding of the phenomena that may create
natural disasters, and a wide array of published literature is available. Likewise, there is
guidance for policy makers and planners to better understand and mitigate natural
disasters (United Nations, 1991). These sources not only deal with floods, but with the
array of possibilities either aione or in combination. In addition, there are detailed reports
of various natural disasters that provide retrospective opportunities to learn from related
experiences, whether a Valdez grounding, infrastructure collapse, a Bophal industrial
disaster, or a terrorist action. Each such disaster tends to provide new insights and
horizons not otherwise recognized; in the case of the Mississippi floods, subsequent
assessments revealed both microscale and macroscale impacts, including, for instance,
the unknown consequences of excessive fresh water discharges on saline environments
from the Gulf of Mexico, around the tip of Florida, and up the Northeast Coast and the
*
nearly million metric tons of nitrate were transported in the process (USGS, 1993} .
Moreover, in all such circumstances, a range of scenarios can evolve between a state of
preparedness to one of non preparedness at the opposite extreme. Hence, it would be
instructive to develop cause/effect matrices within these two bounds, identifying the
drivers creating the potential hazard, and evaluating the environmental impacts
accordingly.
#A
The natural hazards sequence tree approach previously introduced (Figure 1) could
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•-7- •
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be used to reveal direct and indirect causal factors thai could trigger possible adverss
impacts. Then by using a network analysis (Westman, 1984) incorporating the vulnerable
environmental compartments (e.g., water supplies, aquatic ecosystems, etc.), the initial
and final effects, controlling mechanisms, and possible corrective action, adjusted in terms
of magnitude, importance and probability of occurrence as dictated by the particular
selected preparedness scenario, the most drastic output would be determined for the case
of non preparedness, while the others would be some increment thereof and lessening
with degree of preparedness.
The product of such a network analysis could be articulated in the form of a hazard
summary directed at the environmental compartment of focus, arrayed in terms of
magnitude, importance and estimated probability, and fortified by pertinent descriptive
comments drawn from antecedent knowledge and experiences. If extended to other
disasters besides floods, it could take the form of a disaster effects matrix showing likely
damage, loss, shortage, etc. consequenced by the respective disasters on various system
components, as "what if" scenarios are imposed. Such an approach has been advqcated
h
for water utilities (Shimoda, 1994) to establish protocols and action plans for emergency
preparedness and response (Table 1).
Since environmental impact assessment involves crossdisciplinary expertise and
focus on health and natural resources often within the domain of the missions of other
federal and state agencies, responsibility for developing and implementing strategies and
methodologies should be, shared, but EPA should assume a leadership role on issues
involving assessment of environmental consequences of the various transient phenomena.
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Such coordination is vital so that the established FEMA, NQAA, and Corps of Engineers
programs for emergency response, prediction and warning, and mitigation, respectively,
can be broadened to embrace a responsibility to acknowledge, prevent or mitigate also the
environmental consequences of transient phenomena.
References
Mairson, A., "The Great Flood of '93", National Geographic. Vol. 185, No. 1, 42-81
January 1994.
National Research Council INRQ, "A Safer Future - Reducing the Impacts of Natural
Disaster", National Academy Press, Washington, DC, pp. 67, ISBN 0-309-04546-0,
1991.
"Managing Natural Disasters and the Environment", Keimer, A. and Monasinghe, M.
[Eds.l, The Worid Bank, Washington, DC, pp, 216, 1991.
OFDA {USAiD Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance), Washington, DC, 1990.
Palm, R. I., "Natural Hazards: An Integrative Framework for Research and Planning", The
John Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, MD, pp. 184, ISBN 0-8018-3866-5,
1990.
Reuters News Service, "Holiday Floods Keep Families from Homes", The Pittsburgh Press,
December 25, 1993.
United Nations, "Mitigating Natural Disasters - Phenomena, Effects and Options", United
Nations Publications, New York, NY, pp, 164, ISBN 92-1-132019-4, 1990.
United States Geological Survey, "Occurrence and Transport of Agricultural Chemicals In
the Mississippi River Basin, July through August 1993,"1 U.S. Geological Survey
Circular 1120-C, Denver Federal Center, Denver, CO, pp. 22, 1993.
Shimoda, T. A., "Emergency Preparedness and Response"", JoumaLAWWA. Vol, 86, No.
1, 84-92, January 1994.
Westman, W. E., "Ecology, Impact Assessment, and Environmental Planning", John Wiley
& Sons, New York, NY, pp. 532. ISSN 0-471 -80885-4, 1985.
Pohland
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Figure 1
NATURAL HAZARDS SEQUENCE TREE (after May, NRC)
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Appendix 4; Core Competency
by
Dr, Wm, Randall Seeker, Senior Vice President
Energy & Environmental Research Corp,, Irvine, CA
-------
Core Competency
Prepared for the SAB/EEC Futures Project
Introduction
The purpose of the EPA SAB Environmental Futures Project is to assist in the continued
development of EPA's capacity to anticipate environmental problems, issues, and
opportunities. The Environmental Engineering Committee has foeussed on three
scenarios that might occur in the future, analyzed the consequences of these scenarios if
EPA continued on their current course of action, and has made some recommendations on
how EPA could more appropriately respond to these future issues resulting from the
scenarios. These scenarios are clearly not the only scenarios that could happen in the
future. Nonetheless, it is crucial for the EPA to be ready for any foreseeable or
unforeseeable event that falls within the mission of the agency. Since no scientific
method exists to truly predict what scenario will occur, a solid foundation of underlying
skills, knowledge, technology, and science which enable Agency to deliver the products
and services suitable to respond to any plausible scenario, is needed.
The concept of core competency has been developed and used by industry and other
agencies to represent those necessary underlying skills, knowledge, technology and science
to carry out their mission (see attachment). The definition of core competencies adopted
here is as follows:
"the essential and discinct scientific and technical capabilities that enable
the EPA to fulfill it's current and future missions."
This paper will focus on the need to systematically analyze and define those core
scientific and technical competencies needed by the Agency to respond to problems, issues,
and opportunities in the future, and to define a process to continue the study,
Drivers
Reduced resources will likely be available to the EPA in the future to address
environmental issues. At the same time there will be significant pressure on the Agency
to approach regulations from a holistic approach i.e., address multimedia pollutants from
all sources using not just end of pipe control but true pollution prevantion. Hence with
less resources the EPA will have to marshall multi-disciplinary teams to address multi-
pollutant problems. In addition, there is a need for even more rapid response to
environmental problems associated with transient phenomenon such as natural disasters
Seeker
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and terrorism, since in these instances, there is little time to conduct studies arid develop
expertise after the transients occur. Thus in the future, the Agency must be able to
respond faster to broader environmental issues but with less resources.
There will be a significant need to extract information from ongoing, activities and
advances taking place outside of the Agency due to the availability of less resources at
the EPA to address broader issues. It is important to determine what other agencies are
doing in the environmental field in order to avoid duplication of effort and to determine
if the EPA should develop its own core competency in certain areas or rely on others.
The concept of virtual companies could be applied to government agencies. i.e., the EPA
could serve the role as a "learinghouse and coordinator of all environmental activities for
all other agencies. Nonetheless, the Agency will need to have the skilled expertise to be
able to recognize and to use these external resources and advances. In addition, an
infrastructure will be needed to allow the use of information generated by other agencies
and to use the core competencies of other agencies particularly with less overall funds,
Scenarios
The scenario that arises from these drivers is that in the future, EPA will have less
resources with which, to deal with broader multimedia pollutant issues and must deal
with some of them in a more rapid fashion due to their transient nature. The Agency
will lose core competency that is needed to address these new problems. Other
government agencies will play a much more significant role in environmental research
and development,
Consequences
The consequence of this continued loss of competencies will be the following;
1. Loss of capability to serve customers. Understandably, "technology alone cannot solve
environmental problems", as suggested in the Environmental Futures Project joint WRI
and EPA study. On the other hand, another issue that emerged from the same study is
"despite the potential of innovative technologies to improve environmental quality in
many instances, this potential may not be fully realized." Unless critical expertise and
technologies are defined and nurtured, the EPA will not have the capability to respond
effectively, regardless of the legislation and regulations that exist.
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The EPA's products and services are typically regulations, procedures, scientific
knowledge, technologies, and deployment services. The level of competence needed to
deliver such products is built over many years. It is not equivalent to building widgets,
nor is it equivalent to simply responding to customer requests. Customers include those
who pay for, use, and/or benefit from products and services. Therefore, the EPA
customers are many, including Congress, taxpayers, industry, academia, and most
importantly, the public at large. The very nature of the work requires that the Agency
develop a strategic vision, and prepare itself now for the types of products, services,
research and development needed to assure a healthy nation. It is equally important that
the Agency not overlook, or simply take for granted current competencies required for the
future. Only through careful study and analysis will the critical competencies be
identified and developed.
2. Inadequate basis for decision-making. If evidence exists that current competencies are
not being adequately funded, the EPA will not "be in a position to fully carry out its
responsibilities. The possibility exists that the competence will be lost in Congressional
budget debates. Particular emphasis should be placed on those competencies which cut
across national programs and their applications. For example, DOB Defense Programs
identified materials as critical to both defense and non-defense applications. They believe
that they must stay on the cutting-edge of materials science to fully address civilian and
economic competitiveness as well as weapon stockpile problems. Of course, not all
technical capabilities can be equally funded, especially with declining budgets and tighter
resources. Nor should they be. This type of approach to defining those competencies
which are .critical to EPA's future provides a basis for decision-making and priority-
setting, elements which are essential to the current management" approach within the
EPA.
*
3. Short-t6rm_approaches and solutions. Prahalad and Hammel suggest that, "If core
competencies are not recognized, individual units will pursue only those innovation
opportunities that are close at hand-- marginal product-line extensions or geographic
expansions." Related to the EPA, unless competencies are identified and developed,
programs may pursue only those solutions that are relative to the specific problem at
hand, perhaps overlooking a more global, future need that could be addressed with a shift
in program definition and priority, and thereby simultaneously building future
competencies. It is this type of comprehensive view of Agency-wide competencies that will
.sustain the Agency as the respected leader. According to the final Megatrends report,
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"Comprehensive, multi-disciplinary, and integrated solutions will be necessary to solve
future environmental problems."
4. Lack of science transferred to__technology. The Megatrends report also identified seven
critical challenges the Agency will face in the future. Challenge #5 outlined in the report
states,' "To create a world-class scientific capacity within EPA in ordtr to give the Agency
the ability to develop and utilize new knowledge and to serve as a catalyst for technology
innovation critical to achieving the nation's environmental objectives." The authors of
this report have recognized the need to identify and maintain the scientific knowledge
base and technologies to carry out the EPA mission,
Mitigating Actions
L__Jden_tify critical, core competencies. The EPA's primary mission is to protect the
environment and the health and safety of all Americans. Over the years, EPA-sponsored
programs and activities have been able to respond to key developments and events to
assure environmental health and safety, However, it is simply not enough to assume that
the future quality of EPA response will equal those of the past, In fact, one premise is
that unless critical competencies which are needed to anticipate significant impacts and
carry out future programs are defined and nurtured, the opposite will occur. Objectives
should be developed for building competencies in line with strategic directions and vision,
and investments must continue to be made to ensure the Agency's viability in these
critical areas,
As a regulatory agency, the EPA is responsible to the public to implement Congressional
legislation. As a result, the programs are structured according to the legislative acts, and
in the last five to ten years, the focus of the work has shifted from ensuring a scientific
base for environmental protection to developing, implementing, and monitoring
regulations. The agency's effort to strengthen and even maintain current competencies
has gotten pushed to the "back burner" as Congress foisted more regulatory activity
related burdens onto an increasingly over stretched EPA. The question now is to what
extent wjll the Agency be able to respond to future events and uncertainties when most
of its focus has turned to regulation development and its enforcement? What scientific
and technical expertise, knowledge, and capabilities are being lost or ignored in the quest
to simply regulate?
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2. Identify critical core research. One critical component of maintaining core
competencies is to maintain critical core research programs. The Agency must provide a
leadership role by formulating and executing a core research program that help solve
environmental problems associated with all types of industrial, commercial, and municipal
operations well into the next century. As the scenarios defiried in this study have shown
the future holds potentially new problems that are yet to unfold for both the U.S and the
world. New technologies and manufacturing processes will be required to respond to
these problems. The' developed countries cannot solve global environmental problems
alone. Environmentally acceptable control measures and technologies must be developed
and deployed in a cost effective manner by the developing nations to prevent the
continued deterioration of the global environment. However, these new problems will
also generate a new opportunity for U.S. industry. The national and international
market for environmentally acceptable technologies will grow rapidly in the next decade,
For example, reduced imports of petroleum products and the export of environmental
technologies could help to reduce this country's trade deficit.
The EPA has a unique mission to protect the environment and must establish core
research programs in several key areas. This core research roust be crosscutting.
Basic processes that are common to numerous emissions issues should be addressed
concerning all-gaseous, liquid and solid effluent and wastes. For example, research on
the formation and destruction of a particular by-product can be applicable to a wide range
of processes. The application of knowledge generated by a basic research program will
identify and facilitate the solution of environmental problems of the next twenty years,
The EPA should maintain a solid core research program with the following objectives: I)
dilve pollutant reduction technology to the limit of technical and economic feasibility; 2)
develop the capability to predict the amount of all pollutants present in the effluent
streams of all sources; 3) promote pollution prevention and the development of low
pollutant technology for existing and new advanced systems; 4) provide a science and
technology base for regulations.
The EPA is the only Agency with the authority to regulate all industrial, commercial, and
municipal systems that have the potential to emit pollutants in harmful concentrations,
Also, the Agency has the unique mission to protect human health and welfare and to
conserve the environment. In certain areas the EPA is cooperating with other countries
to control pollutants that transcend national boundaries, A core research program must
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be started by the Agency to generate basic information that" will: 1) provide the impetus
to develop new technologies; 2) help the development of future regulation by providing a
sound scientific base, and 3) help to identify and solve environmental problems created by
future developments.
t
The EPA core research program should be foeussed on prevention, and must be
distinguished from the efforts of other agencies. More importantly, the plan must
•^
concentrate upon preventing pollutant formation thereby avoiding the additional
complexity and expense of downstream controls. In addition, the results of the research
must be quantifiable. The plan should be closely coupled with real world problems and
be applicable to all industrial operations and pollutants. It should generate identifiable
products in both the near and the long term. These products may be procedures,
solutions to problems or prototype pollution control systems and therefore, the results of
the research plan will be readily quantified.
The core research program should be based upon two components, cornerstones (applied
system specific development projects) and a keystone (broadly based fundamental
research). Cornerstones are vertically integrated development projects targeted at specific
problems with outputs including new systems; retrofit technologies, and design
procedures. The keystone is the heart of the plan. It includes basic and engineering
research programs that have long-term applicability to a wide range of problems,
3. Adopt management approaches which use the core areas. Simply the identification of
these critical areas will not suffice. Only if the Agency uses the information when
making management decisions. such as establishing strategic directions and plans,
investments and disinvestments, alliances and partnerships, and identifying process
reductions and organizational streamlining, will the information be of value. Programs
which add to the scientific base in at least one of these critical areas should become high-
priority. Additionally, the critical areas can be exploited to identify new programs and
applications to respond faster to broader issues.
Metrics should be implemented to determine the accuracy of the identified areas and to
provide management with facts to consider when making decisions. A critical metric is
the extent to which the results of the research areas are transferred to others who can
use the information to develop proprietary products and procedures. Industry must take
Seeker
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partj but the EPA provides an impartial role ensuring that the benefits of this important
core research program are readily available.
The EPA must assume a corresponding leadership role with the participation of industry
and other societal factors. There must be a balance between in-house and extramural
activities, depending on where the core competency lies. The technical leadership resides
within the EPA laboratories, and the EPA must make a long-term commitment to
research to attract and retain top flight researchers to assume this leadership role.
Recommendation
In order to more rapidly respond_to multimedia emissions with less resources, the agency
must fully define and invest in the Agency's core and research competencies. To fully
define the critical core and research competencies for the future, the following process is
recommended:
1) Analyze Current Programs and Future Scenarios for Competency Components
This step provides the analysis required to understand technical capabilities, technologies,
and other expertise required to successfully address both current programs and future
scenarios within the Agency. Once all the components are defined, they are aggregated to
identify clusters and similarities so that higher-order groupings can be defined. These
groupings become one input to defining critical competencies for the Agency (Set A),
2) Generate Strategic Directions
Strategic planning should run parallel to the step above. However, since the information
from this process should be considered in planning, this step refers only to strategic
guidance and directions. Needed here are upper management and planners views of the
futures with the most probable potential, issues that will face the Agency, arid their
vision of the Agency's new mission and management principles, A second input data set
is generated (Set B),
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3) Benchmark Industry, Other Agencies and Academic, Competencies
In this step the Agency compares the critical competencies from step one to those that
industry, other government agencies and academia believe to. be important. Naturally» a
f
federal Agency should not duplicate their competencies. Instead, duplications should be
identified, questioned, and appropriately assigned, Critical gaps should be identified and
discussed, and new slants on older technologies should be investigated. This provides the
third set of input data (Set C).
4) Reconcile Input Data to Determine EPA Core Competencies
Bring the three data sets together to define the EPA Core Competencies, Contrasts and
comparisons should be made across data sets to identify critical areas. This step, in
particular, should be conducted with a number of customer representatives to achieve
consensus on the areas. This process is similar to the one successfully implemented by
Sandia National Laboratories, More recently, DOE is applying similar concepts in their
decision-making processes.
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Attachment
Definitions
Business Core Competency—Definition. According to Prahalad and Hammel, "Core
competencies are the collective learning in the organization, especially how to-coordinate
diverse production skills and integrate multiple streams of technologies." (Harvard
Business Review, May-June 1990). Core competencies are not only technical capabilities,
but are the unique combination of several components (e.g., capabilities, technologies,
facilities, communication streams, skills, expertise, systems, etc.) that enable an
organization's products and services to surpass others. They create the differentiating
edge needed to create and capture a market.
DOE's Core. Competency Definition. In a report dated January 15, 1993, from the DOE
Assistant Secretary of Defense to the Secretary of Energy entitled, "Core Competencies
Required to Fulfill the Strategic Vision of the Defense Laboratories", core competencies
are defined as, "the essential and distinct scientific and technical capabilities that enable
the Defense Laboratories to fulfill their defense-related DOE mission responsibilities,"
EPA'A-Core Competency Definition. Prahalad and Hammel's definition is applicable to
industry and the marketplace, the DOE definition applies to government agencies and
their need to remain the central repository of scientific intelligence in support of their
mission, and therefore more applicable to our task. Also, this project has an emphasis on
the future. Therefore, the definition of core competencies adopted here is as follows:
"the essential and distinct scientific and technical capabilities that enable
the EPA to fulfill it's current and future missions."
Seeker
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Appendix 5: Futures Methodology
Recommended Issue Identification and Assessment System
Possible Structure and Operation of an EPA "Look-Out" Panel
by
Mr. Theodore J. Gordon, Retired
23 Sailfish Road, Vero Beach, FL
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Prepared for the EEC Futures Project
Recommsnd&d Issue Identification and Assessment System
Considering the lessons learned by ihe EEC Futures Writing Committee,
we recommend that the Environmental Protection Agency aacletneat a system for
detecting and anai^ag incipient Sicare issues. The system should have the
following characteristics; it should; [
draw input from a, wide range of sources.
cerate in a continuous rather than a "one-shot" mode,
have a memory, so that suggestions that are set isid* :cday for lack of data
or Interest can be reassessed in the .future.
be quantitative, wherever possible,
be subject *o scrutiny by people outside of the process,
maks goals explicit.
recognize that many futures ITS possible.
One such system h ilhiatrated and described below. We envision this
system being ma by EPA staff and involving experts both :rom within and outside
A Systefrr ForAntiapating: and
Environment^ /ssues
Gordoii
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the agency.
The central purpose of the panel illustrated in Task I is to identify issues,
trends and developments that could have a significant impact on the nation's
environment or EPA's mission, strategics, or objectives, "f'*
The panelists would be contacted on-line, through the mail, or by fax to
scan their fields and provide observations about new or intensifying issues that
might face EPA. They are also asked for judgments about plausible goals for the
Agency and the environment and possible .means for achieving these goals, (1)
Because the number of respondents is usually small, a "took out" panel
will not produce statistically significant results; in other words, the results
provided by the panel will not predict the response of a larger population or even
the findings of a. different panel. They represent the synthesis of opinion of the
particular group, no more or less.
Th« results produced by an EPA "look out" panel will depend an the
knowledge and cooperation of the panelists; for this reason, it is essential to
include persons who are likely to contribute valuable ideas. In a statistically based
study such as a public opinion poll, participants are assumed to be representative
of a larger population; id panels of this sort, non~reptssen£ative, knowledgeable
persons are needed. The EPA laboratory directors, division chiefs, state
environmental personnel, representatives of environmental action gtoaps might
be invited to participate.
The screening step, Task 2, would employ criteria of th« sort tiw EEC has
found useful in assessing the priority of issues, such as;
scope (Let the number of people affected)
severity :
novelty f
pkusifaiHty/probabiHty/csrtaaty
uncertainty '
irrevcrsMfy
v&biiity/pubUcitY'
(1) Some of the material describing, the panel is drawn front letter from T, I.
Gordon to Dr. Ray Leohr of the SAB. .
Gordon.
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The issues of Task 1 would be screened according to such criteria and :he
top rated set fed back to the panel In Task 3; Here the panelists would be asked to
comment on issues suggested earlier by others on the panel.
Those issues surviving scrutiny would flow to T^sk 6, Analysis. This
quantitative assessment work would be accomplished by stai£ appropriate
Scientific Advisory Committees and outside consultants. It would be, at this stage,
an early evaluation of the extent of the problem and. result in recommendations
about the need for future data collection, study, and policies.
The analysis would be conducted against the backdrop of the reference
scenarios developed In Task 4 and goals and vision of the future environment
developed in Task 5. - , ;
Task 4, Scenarios, involves the production and maintenance of a set of
scenarios that capture the evolution of drivers and Environmental prospects in the
United States and other countries; it also is the home of quantitative environmental
models and monitored environmental variables that can be used in. analyses of
future issues. It would be accomplished by staff.
The goals and vision statements of Task 5 represent the desired future state
of the environment Again, these visions would, to the extent possible be in
quantitative form and maintained by staff, i
Policies suggest by the Task 5 analysis would tested analytically and
submitted to the panel for qualitative judgment in Task T. Tksse policies that are
found to bring the expected future state closer to the desked goals and visions
would be recommended, {for action-
Gordon
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Prepared for the EEC Futut&s Project
Possible Structure and Operation
of an EPA "Look-Out" Panel
The central purpose of an EPA "look-one" panel would be to identify
trends and developments that could have a significant impact on the nation's
environment or SPA's mission, strategies, or objectives, (1)
Picture the panel in operation Participants seldom meet face to face;
rather they are asfed on-line, through me mail, or by fax co provide several idnds
of judgments:
They are asked to scan their fields and provide observations about
de nova or jmensifying issues that might face EPA*
They are asked for judgments about plausible goals for the Agency and
the environment aad possible means for achieving these goals.
They are asked to comment on the observations about issues, goals and
policies made by others on the panel.
In some instances they ate asked to provide data, if available, to back up
their positions,
From a substantive standpoint the issues -addressed by the panel are
associated with the environment or EPA's policies and regulations, Tne issues can
rbcus on essentially my topic; for example Mgnly technical discussions about risk
and dosage to discussions about the future poiirical force of a "environmental
justice" movement. The geographic scope of the panel's activity concentrates on
the US but world issues are fair game if, in the end the US might be affected.
The time horizon is flexible. On the one hand the panel doesn't move 30
far out that die discussion becomes esoteric; on the other hand the panel includes
issues- no maror what their timing* that could be mitigated by immediate action.
Tae rule of thumb is thai "we go out in time as far as is necessary to identify
problems that could or should trigger action tomorrow."
With this imazc in mind some daunting questions arise*.
Just how can the pamcipants be chosen? wist snouid be their range of
expertise? Should they be specialists or generalise? Should mere be a fair
sampling and representation of various view points in the make-up of tie
Gordon
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panel? Should all panelists be scientifically or technically oriented?, Ho--/
can the public participate? -
If the panel is large, how can the right question be asked of the right
person to avoid burdening every one with the chore of reviewing every
question? What questions should be asked?
What media should be employed? E- mail communications are preferred,
not only because of the low cost of transmission but because electronic
responses are much easier to collate, But requiring communications by e-
mail will effectively deny access to many people who might have great
deal to contribute.
The Millennium Project Feasibility Study (conducted by the United
Nations University under contract to the US EPA) defined three kinds of
questions might be asted of participants in a panel of this sort (2):
forecasts of the occurrence offiiture development Forecasts of furore
developments call for answers about when an event is expected to occur or
about the future value of some trend or parameier. We include here
observations about some worsening aspect of the environment and
speculation about its possible consequences.
As desirability of some future state. Questions dealing with desirability
ask for judgments about whether an event wight to occur, and the basis
for the recommendation.
the means for achieving or avoiding ajviurestaiA. Questions dealing with
policy involve the traditional reporter's questions about implementation
seem appropriate tee: who, what, when, where, and how much? But to
this set we must add: To what end. In other words, questions about policy
ought be linked closely to t!ie objer ^is sought and the l
my policy wili> in fact, accomplish its intended goals,
These three types of questions may require different kinds of experts. The
Hrelihood questions may involve hands-on experience and intimate knowledge of
the frontiers of research. The desirability questions may involve a moral, political
or social dimension quite distinct from the disciplinary expertise involved in
judging likelihood. The policy question may involve knowledge of the art of fihe
possible and political savvy,
With the advent of the wide use of Internet and electronic bulletin boards,
one is tempted to simply say, "Lei the discussion of these sorts of questions be
wide open Use little structure. Let the conversation flow as it may," Tnis,! drink.
•Gordon
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xvill not prove to be efficient, Rather, I recommend a structure based on the
Delphi method developed at RAND in the early 60's and used many times since.,
The RAND researchers explored the use of expert panels to address
forecasting issues, Their reasoning went something like this: experts, particular ly
when they agree, are more likely than non experts to be correct about questions in
their field. However., RAND (and many others) found that bringing experts
together in a conference room introduces factors that may have little to do with
the issue at hand, For example, the loudest voice rather than the soundest
argument may cany the day; a person may be reluctant 10 abandon a previously
stated opinion in front of his peers. The give and take of such face to face
confrontations often gets in the way of a true debate.
• The Delphi approach was designed to eliminate the principle obstacles to
conference room meetings of experts. In most applications:
Several rounds are employed; general questions are asked in the first
round
In a second round, reasons for extreme positions are sought.
These reasons are fed back to die group in a third round with instructions
to reassess positions in view of the reasons For extreme opinions.
To encourage a true debate, independent of personalities, anonymity is
required in the sense that no one knew who else is participating. Further, to
eliminate the force of oratory and pedagogy, the reasons given for extreme
opinions are synthesized by the researchers in order to give ail of them equal
"weight". These' aspects: anonymity and teedback represent the two irreducible
elements of a Delphi study.
In the early days. Iriviag toward a consensus was impcf~anL Today,
consensus is- less important for many investigators than it used to be; now a useful
product of such studies is crystallization of reasons for dis-sensus. Furthermore,
this process is now seen as no more or less than a systematic means of
synthesizing the judgments of experts- the aggregate judgment representing a
kind of composite expert composed, in the domain, of interest, of the expertise of
all of the participants.
Some researchers have found that Delphi when used in forecasting does
• not provide more accurate answers than other methods and that consensus occurs
as a result of pressure brought on participants that have extreme opinions.
(Woudenbergj 1991) Even if this is so, our application here is more modest that
accurate forecasting: it is simply an efficient way to gather, synthesize, and
explore expert opinion.
Gordon
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There are major difference between a "classical" Delphi and the use
proposed here. First we are not very concerned with forecasting accuracy; rather
we want to surface observations about possible deleterious developments and
engage in a structured, multi-disciplinary discussion, about the potential evolution
and consequences of die developments, Second, this is not seen as a "one-shot"
study, but rather an on-going, continuous inquiry. But the process uses anonymity
and feedback to advantage.
Because the number of respondents is usually small, a "look out" panel
win not produce statistically significant results; in other words, the results
provided by the panel will not predict the response of a larger population c?r even
the findings of a different panel They represent the synthesis of opinion of the
particular group, no more or less, The value of a this work will rest with the ideas
it generates, both those which evoke consensus and those that do not The
arguments for the extreme positions also represent a useful product This will not
be a substitute for analysis, it will provide only an early warning, or hints that
deserve follow up.
The results produced by an EPA "look out" panel will depend on the
knowledge and cooperation of the panelists; for this reason, it is essential to
include persons who are likely to contribute valuable ideas, la a statistically based
study such as a1 public opinion poll, participants are assumed to be representative
of a larger population; in panels of this sort, non-representative, knowledgeable
persons are needed. So the first problem to be addressed is how to select potential
participants. The EPA laboratory directors, division chiefs,, state environmental
personnel, representatives of environmental action groups all come to mind,
But how about "urjknowE" people who are outside of the normal lines of
communication but who may be able to contribute new and valuable perceptions?
Here are some suggestions:
use bulletins boards to identify contributors who have something to say
get recommendaTions from university pofesscars about bright students
advertise for participants
Detailed design, of course, will rest with die EPA staff. But here are some
thoughts about structure and operations to trigger discussion
The panel is made up of invited expert participants, from EPA, the
environmejital comniaiity as well as the public, primarily from, the US
but other countries may be represented as well.
Gordon
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Anonymity (in the sense that comments-will be urmttdbuted) is promised
and feed back of information is used in sequential questionnaires,
Panelists are encouraged, to initiate contact whenever they see looming
issues,
4.
- Non EPA personnel are paid for their time and communications costs.
The panel operates continuously.
Questionnaires are drafted by staff and send to the participants by fax, s-
mail and mail,
One part of every questionnaire will request perceptions about newly
observed nascent issues; another part will request comments issues
reported by others in earlier rounds. Questions may also be included
seeking judgments about goals and contemplated policies.
A "filtering" system wiU be used by staff to assure tot the right questions
go to the correct persons, while not missing the opportunity to gain
contributions from those outside of the topic area,
Review of responses is careftd; reports are made periodically and provided
to the panelists.
Also, consider the possibility of:
establishing a set of indicators, the future of which, can be assessed
by the panel in view of the issues they discuss.
an amual meeting of participaats
Ted GordOE
January 25,1994
(1) In this discussion, I have ased the tenn" look-out" as a substitute for the more usual tern*
"environmental scanning" to avoid the potential confusion in the us* of word "snvuonmentaT1 in
tils context. "Environmeatai scanning" encompass** the total environment saaoanding $m
activity: scononies, mriats, technology, social ehaage, regulation, etc.
(2) T Gordon tad I Glenn. "Issues itt Creating the MillefflfliiMn Project," United Nations
University, funded by tfe EPA, October, 1993. Some of the material in this pap*r is drwan fiom
this source.
Gordon
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