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Technology
Innovation
Transforming the
Automotive Market
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Technology
Innovation
Consumers shopping for vehicles with better fuel economy and lower carbon emissions
have a wider range of choices than ever, as automakers are increasingly introducing
cars, minivans, sport utility vehicles (SUVs) and pickup trucks with advanced technolo-
gies and alternative fuels. While the number of hybrid and plug-in electric models
increases every year, most of the improvement in fuel economy and carbon emissions is
a result of the rapid commercialization of advanced gasoline vehicle technologies such
as gasoline direct-injection engines, turbochargers, and advanced transmissions. These
technologies are enabling many vehicles in showrooms today, with straightforward
improvements to air conditioning systems, to already meet EPA's new carbon dioxide
(CO2) emissions targets years ahead of schedule. Consumers who buy these vehicles
will not only get better mileage, but will also enjoy significant savings at the gas pump.
Consumers have an increasing number of high fuel economy
vehicle choices
Consumers have more choices than ever when shopping for vehicles with higher fuel
economy and lower carbon emissions. Buying these vehicles means more money in
consumers' pocketbooks due to gasoline savings. Compared to just five years ago, the
number of high miles per gallon (mpg) vehicle offerings has grown considerably - and
across all segments, from cars to SUVs, pickups, minivans and vans (Figure 1).1
Figure 1.
Vehicle Models Meeting Fuel Economy Thresholds in 2007 and 20122
o
OJ
.0
E
3
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
12007
12012
SUVs, Pickups,
Minivans, and Vans
>=20MPG
SUVs >=25MPG
Cars >=30MPG
Cars >=40MPG
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There are now 65 models across SUVs, pickups, minivans and vans with combined
city/highway label fuel economy ratings of 20 mpg or more, compared with 38 models
five years ago, and 14 SUV models achieve 25 mpg or above.3 There are now 48 car
models available with a combined city/highway label fuel economy of 30 mpg or more,
compared to just 8 in 2007, and 15 of these cars achieve 40 mpg or higher.
Consumers also have many more alternatives to conventional gasoline vehicles (Figure
2). Five years ago, the only advanced vehicle technology for which there were meaning-
ful choices was hybrids, with a smaller number of diesels and one compressed natural
gas vehicle. Today, not only are there twice as many hybrid and diesel offerings, but
growing numbers of electric vehicles (EVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs),
natural gas vehicles, and fuel cell vehicles as well. Hybrid vehicle offerings have in-
creased from 14 in 2007 to 31 in 2012, and diesel offerings have increased from 6 in
2007 to 12 in 2012. Consumers shopping for alternative fueled vehicles can also choose
from 8 EVs, 3 PHEVs, 2 natural gas vehicles, and 2 fuel cell vehicles.4
Figure 2.
Alternative Fueled and Advanced Technology Vehicle Models
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01
.a
E
3
15
10
12007
12012
Hybrid
vehicles
Diesel vehicles
Electric
vehicles
Plug-in hybrid
electric
vehicles
Compressed
natural gas
vehicles
Fuelcell
vehicles
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Advanced gasoline vehicle technologies are rapidly gaining
market share
Technology innovation is a major driving force behind the recent improvements in CO2
emissions and fuel economy. Automakers are continually introducing into the market
new advancements in gasoline engine and transmission technology. Because gasoline
vehicles still account for the vast majority of vehicle sales, these advanced gasoline
technologies account for more fuel and carbon savings than all alternative fuel vehicles
combined.
Conventional fuel injection systems are being replaced by more sophisticated gasoline
direct injection systems, whose use has grown from essentially zero five years ago to
24% of the projected market in 2012 (Figure 3). The use of turbochargers/supercharg-
ers has tripled from about 3% in 2007 to a projected 9% in 2012. The market share for
conventional hybrids has increased slightly since 2007.
Transmission technology advancements are particularly impressive. Six-speed, seven or
higher-speed, and continuously variable transmissions are rapidly replacing the tradi-
tional four-speed transmission, now reaching a nearly 75% cumulative market share
compared with 25% just five years ago.
Figure 3.
Advanced Gasoline Vehicle Technology Penetration
60%
50%
40%
I 30%
in
M-
o
5?
20%
10%
0%
12007
12012
Gasoline Turbocharged 6 Speed
Direct or Transmission
Injection Supercharged
Continuously 7+Speed
Variable Transmission
Transmission
Hybrid
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Automakers are selling many vehicles today that can meet
future CO2 targets
EPA's new emissions standards for light-duty vehicles are projected to result in an aver-
age industry fleet-wide compliance level of 163 grams/mile of CO2 by 2025, or 54.5 mpg
if achieved exclusively from fuel economy improvements. EPA's earlier standards for
2016 are projected to result in an average fleet-wide compliance level of 250 grams/mile
CO2, or 35.5 mpg if achieved exclusively from fuel economy. These CO2 standards trans-
late into average fleet-wide label values of about 28 mpg in 2016 and 40 mpg in 2025.
The CO2 targets vary by a vehicle's size, or "footprint," so automakers can continue of-
fering consumers a full range of vehicle choices with the utility customers want.5 EPA has
done an assessment of how many vehicles already either meet the future CO2 targets,
or can meet them with straightforward improvements in air conditioning systems.
We evaluated current vehicle models6 against future footprint-based CO2 targets to
determine which vehicles could meet or exceed the targets in model years 2016-2025,
assuming the only additional changes manufacturers would make are improvements to
the air conditioning efficiency and leakage systems (Figures 4, 5, 6). We assumed the
addition of only air conditioning improvements since these are some of the least expen-
sive technologies available to reduce CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions.7
Figure 4.
Currently Available Vehicle Models That Meet Future CO2 Targets, by Vehicle Class
Minivan /Van
I Standard Pick-up Truck
I Small Pick up Truck
Sport Utility Vehicle
I Midsize Station Wagon
I Small Station Wagon
I Large Car
I Midsize Car
I Compact Car
iSubcompactCar
I MinicompactCar
UwoSeater
2016
2017
2020
2025
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About 90 vehicles in showrooms today either already meet the 2016 CO2 targets, or can
meet these targets with the addition of expected air conditioning improvements. These
vehicles span a wide range of vehicle segments, including cars, SUVs, minivans, and
pickup trucks (Figure 4), and more than half are gasoline technology (Figure 5). Almost
25% of today's vehicle sales meet (or can meet with expected air conditioning changes)
the 2016 CO2 targets (Figure 6). Looking ahead, there are about 40 vehicles (5% of
today's sales) that can meet the 2020 CO2 targets, and about 25 vehicles (3% of today's
sales) that can meet the 2025 CO2 targets. While gasoline vehicles make up more than
half of the vehicles meeting the 2016 targets, the vehicles meeting the 2025 targets
include only hybrids, plug-in hybrids, electric vehicles, and fuel cell vehicles. However,
since the 2025 standards are more than 10 years away, there's considerable time for
continued improvements in gasoline vehicle technology.
Figure 5.
Currently Available Vehicle Models That Meet Future CO2 Targets, by Technology
ICNG
IEV
I Fuel Cell
IPHEV
IHEV
I Diesel
(Gasoline
2016
2017
2020
2025
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Figure 6.
2012 Vehicles That Meet Future CO2 Targets, by Projected Sales
30%
0%
2016
2017
2020
2025
1 In this analysis, EPA had to make judgments about how to group vehicle models for the most meaningful
comparison between model year (MY) 2007 and 2012 vehicles. EPA prepared a technical support memo
documenting the assumptions and methodology that went into all the analyses contained in this brochure,
available at www.epa.gov/nvfel/showcase.htm.
2 All years referenced in this document are model years.
3 The fuel economy metric for all non-petroleum fueled vehicles is miles per gallon of gasoline equivalent.
4 Some alternative fueled vehicles have limited consumer availability; for example, the Honda PCX Clarity and
Mercedes-Benz F-Cell fuel cell vehicles are only available to some consumers in selected California markets.
5 Note that the EPA CO2 standards are part of the National Program for reducing greenhouse gas emissions
and improving fuel economy. The National Program includes both the EPA CO2 standards and the Corporate
Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards established by the Department of Transportation's National High-
way Traffic Safety Administration.
6 This current vehicle model data included mostly MY 2013 data, but we used MY 2012 data for models where
MY 2013 data was not yet available.
7 While we assessed individual vehicle models compared to their footprint-based CO2 targets for purposes of
this analysis, it is important to note that no individual vehicle is actually required to achieve a specific CO2
target. Instead, each manufacturer has a unique CO2 compliance value for its car and truck fleets, based on
the sales-weighted vehicles it produces in a given model year.
7
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United States Office of Transportation and Air Quality
Environmental Protection EPA-420-F-12-077
Agency December 2012
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