Light-Duty Automotive Technology, Carbon Dioxide Emissions, and Fuel 1975 Through 2012 Appendix A Database Details and Calculation Methods This technical report does not necessarily represent final EPA decisions or positions. It is intended to present technical analysis of issues using data that are currently available. The purpose in the release of such reports is to facilitate the exchange of technical information and to inform the public of technical developments. Economy Trends: Transportation and Climate Division Office of Transportation and Air Quality U.S. Environmental Protection Agency NOTICE United States Environmental Protection Agency EPA-420-R-13-001A March 2013 ------- Harmonically Averaging Fuel Economy Values Dimensionally, fuel economy is miles divided by gallons. Then, presented with more than one fuel economy value, an approach to averaging the values is to compute the result by determining the total miles traveled and dividing that by the total gallons used. Example: A motorist's fuel economy log for May shows that 704 miles were accumulated around town in which the fuel economy was 16 mpg, and one 216 mile highway trip was taken on which the fuel economy was 24 mpg. What is the average fuel economy for May? The total miles are 704 + 216 = 920. The total gallons thus are 704 / 16 = 44 plus 216 / 24 = 9 or a total of 53 gallons. The average mpg is 920 / 53 = 17.4 mpg. Notice that the arithmetic average of the two fuel economy values (16 + 24) / 2 = 20 mpg gives an individual result that is higher than the total miles/total gallons result. Even if the around-town miles traveled and the highway trip miles traveled were the same (460 miles), the average fuel economy would not be 20; it would be 19.2 mpg. This is because in the total miles/total gallons approach, fuel consumption is arithmetically averaged, but fuel economy is harmonically averaged, so for the second example (equal trip distances), the calculation would be: Average MPG = (- + - V16 24 ) which is the same as arithmetically averaging the two fuel consumption values. A specific example of this type of averaging approach is shown in the calculation of the overall average fuel economy using the EPA "city" (MPGc) and EPA "highway" (MPGh) fuel economy values. Total Miles Average MPG = Total Gallons Total Miles City Gallons + Highway Gallons Total Miles / City Miles Highway Miles \ \ City MPG Highway MPG ) Now, if city miles are 55 percent of total miles and highway miles are the remaining 45 percent, after dividing by total miles, A-l ------- Average MPG = ^ ¦ + MPGC ' MPGhj and this average mpg would represent a composite mpg value based on the 55% city/45% highway driving in this example. This 55% city/45% highway weighting is the metric in this report for laboratory composite fuel economy values. The same approach can be used when the average mpg of a group of vehicles with different mpg values is to be calculated. Suppose a fleet of 100,000 vehicles is made up of two classes, one of 70,000 vehicles whose fuel economy is 10 mpg and the other of 30,000 vehicles whose fuel economy is 14 mpg. Each vehicle in the fleet is assumed to travel the same number of miles (M), Total Miles = 100,000 M 70,000 M 30,000 M Total Gallons = 1 10 14 and the average fuel economy is: 1 Average Fuel Economy = » „—» » = 10.9 mpg (tc+ti) where .7 and .3 are the relative shares of each vehicle class in the fleet. Notice that, again, the arithmetic average of the class fuel economy values (10 + 14)/2 =12 mpg is higher. In general, some form of a weighted harmonic mean must be used when averaging different fuel economy values in order to maintain mathematical integrity. While fuel economy values (in miles per gallon) must be harmonically averaged to maintain mathematical integrity, fuel consumption values (in gallons per mile) and carbon dioxide emissions values (in grams per mile) can be arithmetically averaged. A-2 ------- Estimated and Final Production Data Table A-l compares average laboratory 55/45 fuel economy for model years 1998 through 2012 at three points in time: (1) an initial estimate determined early in the model year using projected production; (2) for some years, a revised estimate determined by using trade publication sales data that were obtained after the end of each model year, but before the final CAFE data were submitted by automakers to EPA; and (3) final fuel economy values determined from CAFE compliance data provided by the manufacturers to EPA after the end of the model year. Historically, the final car plus truck laboratory 55/45 fuel economy values have generally varied from 0.5 mpg lower to 0.6 mpg higher compared to the original estimates based exclusively on projected production. But, MY2009 was a very unusual year in this regard. The final car plus truck laboratory 55/45 value for MY2009 was 1.8 mpg higher than the initial estimate for 2009, due to the market turmoil in MY2009. The final car plus truck adjusted fuel economy value for MY2009 was 1.3 mpg higher than the initial estimate. For MY 2011, the final car plus truck laboratory values were 0.5 mpg lower than the initial estimates in last year's report. The individual EPA car, and truck, fuel economy values shown in Table A-l for years prior to MY 2011 differ from the values found elsewhere in this report. Beginning with the 2011 report, EPA reclassified most small, 2 wheel drive SUVs from trucks to cars for the entire database. This reflects a regulatory change made by NHTSA for CAFE standards beginning in MY 2011 and which will apply for the joint EPA/NHTSA greenhouse gas emissions and CAFE standards that have been finalized for MY 2012-2025. These changes were not in effect for years prior to MY 2011, and accordingly, the individual car and truck fuel economy values prior to MY 2011 are based on the previous car and truck definitions. To enable a comparison with the initial estimates made for this series of reports, the individual car and truck values in table A-l were calculated using the previous car and truck definitions, which is not consistent with the rest of this report. While the individual car and truck numbers in Table A-l are unique, the car and truck definitions do not affect the overall (car plus truck) fuel economy values, which are consistent with the rest of this report. A-3 ------- Table A-l Comparison of Laboratory 55/45 MPG Model Year Initial Estimate Revised Estimate Final Value Cars 1998 28.6 28.6 28.5 1999 28.1 28.2 28.1 2000 28.1 28.3 28.2 2001 28.3 28.3 28.4 2002 28.5 28.5 28.6 2003 29.0 28.9 28.9 2004 28.7 28.9 28.9 2005 28.9 29.2 29.5 2006 28.8 29.2 29.2 2007 29.4 30.3 30.3 2008 30.3 30.5 2009 30.9 32.1 2010 32.7 32.3 2011 32.8 32.3 2012 34.6 Trucks 1998 20.6 20.6 20.9 1999 20.3 20.4 20.5 2000 20.5 20.5 20.8 2001 20.3 20.4 20.6 2002 20.4 20.3 20.6 2003 20.8 20.9 20.9 2004 20.9 20.9 20.8 2005 21.3 21.2 21.4 2006 21.5 21.9 21.8 2007 22.1 22.1 22.1 2008 22.5 22.7 2009 22.9 23.8 2010 23.8 23.4 2011 23.6 23.9 2012 24.3 Both 1998 24.4 24.4 24.5 1999 23.8 24.0 24.1 2000 24.0 23.9 24.3 2001 23.9 24.0 24.2 2002 24.0 23.9 24.1 2003 24.4 24.2 24.3 2004 24.4 24.4 24.0 2005 24.6 24.6 24.8 2006 24.6 25.3 25.2 2007 25.3 25.7 25.8 2008 26.0 26.3 2009 26.4 28.2 2010 28.3 28.4 2011 28.6 28.1 2012 30.0 A-4 ------- Use of 3-Year Moving Averages Use of the three-year moving averages, which effectively smoothes the trends, results in an improvement in discriminating real trends from what might be relatively small year-to-year variations in the data. For this report, as shown in Table A-2 (laboratory) and Table A-3 (adjusted), these three-year moving averages are tabulated at the midpoint. For example, the midpoint for model years 2010, 2011, and 2012 is MY2011. Table A-2 Light-Duty Vehicle Laboratory Fuel Economy and Truck Sales Fraction Model Year Actual Data 55/45 Fuel Economy Car Truck Both Truck Production Fraction Three-Year Moving Average Truck 55/45 Fuel Economy Production Car Truck Both Fraction 1975 15.8 13.7 15.3 19.3% 1976 17.5 14.4 16.7 21.1% 17.2 14.6 16.6 20.1% 1977 18.3 15.6 17.7 19.9% 18.5 15.1 17.7 21.2% 1978 19.9 15.3 18.6 22.5% 19.5 15.2 18.3 21.5% 1979 20.2 14.7 18.7 22.1% 21.2 16.2 19.9 20.4% 1980 23.5 18.6 22.5 16.5% 23.0 17.8 21.8 18.6% 1981 25.1 20.1 24.1 17.2% 24.9 19.7 23.8 17.8% 1982 26.0 20.5 24.7 19.5% 25.7 20.5 24.5 19.6% 1983 25.9 20.8 24.6 22.0% 26.1 20.6 24.6 21.7% 1984 26.3 20.4 24.6 23.5% 26.4 20.6 24.7 23.4% 1985 26.9 20.5 25.0 24.8% 27.0 20.8 25.1 25.4% 1986 27.9 21.4 25.7 27.9% 27.6 21.2 25.5 26.6% 1987 28.0 21.6 25.9 27.2% 28.1 21.4 25.8 28.1% 1988 28.5 21.1 25.9 29.1% 28.2 21.2 25.8 28.7% 1989 28.1 20.9 25.4 29.9% 28.1 20.9 25.5 29.6% 1990 27.7 20.7 25.2 29.6% 27.9 20.9 25.3 30.0% 1991 27.8 21.2 25.4 30.4% 27.6 20.9 25.2 30.5% 1992 27.4 20.8 24.9 31.4% 27.6 21.0 25.1 31.4% 1993 27.6 21.0 25.1 32.4% 27.6 20.8 24.8 34.0% 1994 27.7 20.7 24.6 38.1% 27.8 20.7 24.8 35.7% 1995 28.1 20.5 24.7 36.5% 28.0 20.6 24.7 37.5% 1996 28.0 20.8 24.8 37.8% 28.1 20.6 24.7 38.1% 1997 28.2 20.5 24.5 39.9% 28.1 20.7 24.6 39.8% 1998 28.1 20.8 24.5 41.7% 28.0 20.5 24.4 41.1% 1999 27.8 20.3 24.1 41.7% 27.9 20.6 24.3 41.6% 2000 27.7 20.7 24.3 41.2% 27.8 20.4 24.2 41.4% 2001 27.9 20.3 24.2 41.4% 28.0 20.4 24.2 42.4% 2002 28.3 20.3 24.1 44.7% 28.3 20.4 24.2 44.1% 2003 28.7 20.7 24.3 46.1% 28.5 20.5 24.1 46.3% 2004 28.5 20.5 24.0 48.0% 28.8 20.7 24.4 46.2% 2005 29.1 21.0 24.8 44.4% 28.8 21.0 24.7 44.8% 2006 28.9 21.4 25.2 42.1% 29.3 21.3 25.3 42.5% 2007 29.8 21.6 25.8 41.1% 29.6 21.7 25.7 41.3% 2008 30.1 22.2 26.3 40.7% 30.5 22.3 26.7 38.2% 2009 31.6 23.1 28.2 33.0% 31.4 22.9 27.6 37.0% 2010 32.6 23.4 28.4 37.3% 32.1 23.5 28.2 37.5% 2011 32.3 23.9 28.1 42.2% 33.1 23.9 28.8 38.5% 2012 34.6 24.3 30.0 36.1% A-5 ------- Year 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Table A-3 Light-Duty Vehicle Adjusted Fuel Economy Actual Data City Highway Composite City Highway Compos 12.3 15.2 13.5 13.7 16.6 14.9 13.5 16.4 14.6 14.4 17.4 15.6 14.5 17.7 15.8 15.5 19.1 16.9 15.3 18.5 16.6 15.9 19.2 17.2 16.6 20.3 18.1 18.3 22.6 20.0 17.9 22.0 19.6 19.6 24.2 21.4 19.3 24.1 21.2 20.1 25.5 22.2 19.9 25.1 21.9 19.9 25.5 22.1 20.1 25.6 22.2 20.2 25.9 22.4 20.2 26.0 22.5 20.6 26.7 23.0 20.7 26.7 23.0 21.2 27.6 23.7 21.0 27.3 23.5 21.2 27.7 23.8 21.2 27.8 23.8 21.4 28.1 24.1 21.1 27.9 23.8 20.8 27.8 23.6 20.9 27.8 23.7 20.4 27.4 23.3 20.5 27.5 23.4 20.4 27.4 23.3 20.2 27.3 23.1 19.8 27.2 22.9 20.0 27.3 23.0 19.9 27.3 23.0 19.8 27.3 23.0 19.8 27.4 23.0 19.9 27.5 23.1 19.9 27.9 23.3 19.8 27.6 23.1 19.7 27.6 23.1 19.7 27.7 23.2 19.7 27.6 23.2 19.6 27.6 23.1 19.5 27.5 23.0 19.4 27.4 23.0 19.2 27.0 22.7 19.2 27.1 22.7 19.0 26.7 22.5 19.1 26.8 22.6 19.1 26.7 22.6 19.1 26.8 22.6 19.2 26.8 22.8 19.2 26.9 22.8 19.3 27.1 23.0 19.2 27.0 22.9 19.1 27.0 22.9 19.2 27.1 23.0 19.4 27.2 23.1 19.2 27.1 23.0 19.2 27.1 23.0 19.5 27.3 23.3 19.8 27.8 23.7 19.7 27.6 23.5 20.0 28.0 23.9 20.3 28.3 24.2 21.0 29.2 25.0 20.9 29.0 24.9 21.7 29.9 25.7 21.3 29.7 25.4 21.3 30.1 25.6 22.0 30.6 26.2 22.9 31.8 27.3 Three-Year Moving Average A-6 ------- A-7 ------- Table A-3 Light-Duty Vehicle Adjusted Fuel Economy Trucks Model Year City Actual Data Highway Composite Three-Year Moving Average City Highway Composite 1975 10.9 12.7 11.6 1976 11.6 13.2 12.2 11.7 13.3 12.4 1977 12.7 14.2 13.3 12.2 13.7 12.8 1978 12.4 13.7 12.9 12.4 13.6 12.9 1979 12.1 13.1 12.5 13.1 14.6 13.7 1980 14.8 17.1 15.8 14.3 16.3 15.1 1981 16.0 18.6 17.1 15.7 18.3 16.8 1982 16.3 19.0 17.4 16.2 19.1 17.4 1983 16.5 19.6 17.7 16.3 19.3 17.5 1984 16.1 19.3 17.4 16.3 19.4 17.5 1985 16.2 19.3 17.5 16.4 19.6 17.7 1986 16.8 20.1 18.2 16.6 20.0 18.0 1987 16.8 20.4 18.3 16.6 20.2 18.1 1988 16.2 20.1 17.8 16.3 20.1 17.9 1989 15.9 19.8 17.6 15.9 19.9 17.6 1990 15.6 19.8 17.4 15.8 19.9 17.6 1991 15.9 20.2 17.8 15.7 20.0 17.5 1992 15.4 19.9 17.3 15.6 20.1 17.5 1993 15.5 20.1 17.5 15.4 19.9 17.3 1994 15.2 19.6 17.2 15.2 19.7 17.2 1995 14.9 19.4 17.0 15.1 19.6 17.1 1996 15.0 19.8 17.2 14.9 19.5 17.0 1997 14.7 19.4 16.8 14.9 19.6 17.0 1998 14.8 19.7 17.1 14.7 19.4 16.8 1999 14.5 19.1 16.6 14.6 19.4 16.8 2000 14.7 19.3 16.8 14.5 19.1 16.7 2001 14.4 18.8 16.5 14.4 19.0 16.6 2002 14.3 18.8 16.5 14.3 18.9 16.6 2003 14.4 19.1 16.7 14.3 19.0 16.6 2004 14.2 18.9 16.5 14.3 19.2 16.7 2005 14.4 19.5 16.9 14.4 19.4 16.9 2006 14.6 19.7 17.2 14.6 19.7 17.1 2007 14.8 20.0 17.4 14.8 20.1 17.4 2008 15.1 20.5 17.8 15.2 20.6 17.9 2009 15.7 21.4 18.5 15.6 21.2 18.4 2010 15.9 21.7 18.8 16.0 21.7 18.8 2011 16.2 22.1 19.1 16.2 22.1 19.1 2012 16.4 22.5 19.4 A-8 ------- Table A-3 Light-Duty Vehicle Adjusted Fuel Economy Cars and Trucks Model Year City Actual Data Highway Composite Three-Year Moving Average City Highway Composite 1975 12.0 14.6 13.1 1976 13.2 15.7 14.2 13.1 15.7 14.1 1977 14.0 16.6 15.1 14.0 16.6 15.0 1978 14.7 17.5 15.8 14.5 17.2 15.6 1979 14.9 17.4 15.9 15.7 18.8 17.0 1980 17.6 21.5 19.2 17.1 20.6 18.5 1981 18.8 23.0 20.5 18.6 22.8 20.3 1982 19.2 23.9 21.1 19.0 23.6 20.8 1983 19.0 23.9 21.0 19.1 23.9 21.0 1984 19.1 24.0 21.0 19.1 24.1 21.1 1985 19.3 24.4 21.3 19.4 24.5 21.4 1986 19.8 25.0 21.8 19.6 24.9 21.7 1987 19.8 25.3 22.0 19.7 25.2 21.9 1988 19.6 25.2 21.9 19.5 25.1 21.8 1989 19.1 24.8 21.4 19.1 24.9 21.5 1990 18.7 24.6 21.2 18.9 24.7 21.3 1991 18.8 24.7 21.3 18.6 24.6 21.1 1992 18.2 24.4 20.8 18.4 24.5 21.0 1993 18.2 24.4 20.9 18.1 24.2 20.7 1994 17.8 23.8 20.4 17.9 24.1 20.6 1995 17.7 24.1 20.5 17.7 24.0 20.4 1996 17.6 24.0 20.4 17.6 23.9 20.4 1997 17.4 23.6 20.2 17.4 23.8 20.2 1998 17.2 23.6 20.1 17.2 23.4 20.0 1999 16.9 23.0 19.7 17.0 23.2 19.9 2000 16.9 23.0 19.8 16.9 23.0 19.7 2001 16.8 22.8 19.6 16.8 22.8 19.6 2002 16.6 22.5 19.5 16.7 22.7 19.6 2003 16.7 22.7 19.6 16.6 22.6 19.4 2004 16.3 22.4 19.3 16.6 22.7 19.6 2005 16.8 23.1 19.9 16.7 23.0 19.8 2006 17.0 23.4 20.1 17.1 23.5 20.2 2007 17.4 24.0 20.6 17.3 23.9 20.6 2008 17.7 24.4 21.0 18.0 24.8 21.3 2009 18.9 26.0 22.4 18.6 25.5 22.0 2010 19.1 26.2 22.6 18.9 26.1 22.5 2011 18.8 26.1 22.4 19.3 26.7 22.9 2012 20.0 27.7 23.8 A-9 ------- Methodology for Adjusted Fuel Economy Values for Model Years 1986-2012 On December 27, 2006, EPA published regulations that changed the methodology for calculating the city and highway fuel economy label estimates for new passenger cars and light trucks (71 Federal Register 77872). This revised methodology provides fuel economy estimates to consumers that better reflect real world fuel economy. The methodology incorporates test data that directly account for several important factors that affect fuel economy in the real world, such as high speeds, aggressive accelerations and decelerations, the use of air conditioning, and operation in cold temperatures, and indirectly account for a number of other factors that are not reflected in EPA laboratory test data such as changing fuel composition, road conditions, etc. These vehicle fuel economy label changes were implemented beginning with the 2008 model year. For model years 2008-2010, manufacturers had two options for calculating city and highway fuel economy labels: 1) use vehicle-specific "5-cycle" (Federal Test Procedure for urban stop-and-go driving, Highway Fuel Economy Test for rural driving, US06 test for high speeds and aggressive driving, SC03 test for air conditioning operation, and cold FTP test for cold temperature operation) fuel economy test data in "composite" equations that calculate vehicle-specific city and highway fuel economy values using weighting factors for data from each of the 5 EPA test cycles, or 2) use an industry-average "mpg-based" method to derive 5-cycle values, which yields mpg-based adjustments based on a regression of recent 5- cycle fuel economy data for the industry as a whole, and applied to "2-cycle" fuel economy test results. Beginning with MY 2011, manufacturers are required to perform an evaluation using 5-cycle tests conducted for vehicle emissions certification that determines whether the models represented by the certification vehicle are eligible to use the less resource-intensive mpg-based method for determining adjusted fuel economy values. The evaluation consists of a comparison of 5-cycle and mpg-based 2-cycle fuel economy values to determine whether the mpg-based method achieves results comparable to the 5- cycle method. If the evaluation finds that the 5-cycle method yields significantly lower fuel economy estimates than the derived 5-cycle method, then the manufacturer is required to use the 5-cycle method for all models represented by the emission certification vehicle. Of course, a manufacturer may use the full 5-cycle method for any vehicles for which it is not required if they believe it produces better fuel economy results. Although this required evaluation has resulted in more models using the 5-cycle method, they are still in the minority. In the 2010 model year, before this evaluation was required, about seven percent of models used the more complex and labor-intensive method, but two years later, in the 2012 model year, this fraction has doubled to about 14 percent. For more details on the derivation of these options, the specific equations that allow an automaker to calculate new label values using either the vehicle-specific 5-cycle test data or the industry-average mpg-based derived 5-cycle approach, and the impact of these changes on average fuel economy label values, see the Preamble to the new regulations (71 Federal Register 77881-77893). Beginning with the 2007 Trends report, EPA has made significant changes in how adjusted (ADJ) fuel economy values for model years 1986 through 2012 are calculated to reflect the revised EPA fuel economy label methodology. These changes affect every table and figure in this report that involve adjusted fuel economy data. Accordingly, adjusted fuel economy values for 1986 and later model years should not be compared with the corresponding values from pre-2007 reports in this series. Specifically, the adjusted fuel economy values for 1986-2012 in this report differ from those in pre-2007 reports as explained below. A-10 ------- • For model years 2005-2012, EPA calculates adjusted fuel economy values for most of the individual models in the fuel economy trends database using the following city and highway "mpg-based" equations from the EPA fuel economy labeling rulemaking: New ADJ CITY = -r^ 0.003259 + LAB CITY New ADJ HWY = TTJZT 0.001376+ 13466 LAB HWY The above equations are not used if a manufacturer chooses the option of providing vehicle- specific 5-cycle test data for an individual model. In that case, the adjusted fuel economy values are calculated using equations with weighting factors for the vehicle-specific data from the 5-cycle tests. Calculating fleetwide adjusted city and highway fuel economy values for a given model year requires a harmonic, production-weighted average of all of the adjusted city and highway fuel economy values for individual models. The above equations yield a greater downward adjustment for higher fuel economy vehicles than for lower fuel economy vehicles. For example, compared to the older fuel economy label methodology, a 15 mpg city value will be reduced by an additional 10%, while a 50 mpg city value will be reduced by an additional 18%. Likewise, a 20 mpg highway value will be reduced by an additional 7%, while a 50 mpg highway value will be reduced by an additional 11%. EPA projected an overall average fleetwide adjustment of 11% lower for city fuel economy and 8% lower for highway fuel economy, beyond that in the older label adjustment methodology that has been used in pre-2007 reports in this series. These factors can be used to convert older adjusted fuel economy values to the newer adjusted fuel economy values for the current fleet as a whole, but would not be appropriate factors to use for individual models or for a future fleet with different mpg characteristics. This report seldom uses separate city and highway fuel economy values, but typically uses the composite city/highway fuel economy value. Pre-2007 reports used a 55% city/45% highway weighting for adjusted composite fuel economy values, the same weighting used for laboratory composite values and for the CAFE compliance program. The analysis of real world driving activity underlying the newer fuel economy label methodology assumed a "speed cutpoint" of 45 miles per hour to differentiate between city and highway driving (71 Federal Register 77904). Based on this speed cutpoint, the correct weighting for correlating the new city and highway fuel economy values with real world driving, on a miles driven basis, is 43% city/57% highway. Accordingly, the 43% city/57% highway weighting is now used for all adjusted composite city/highway fuel economy values in this report beginning with the 2005 model year (note that the historic 55% city/45% highway weighting is still used for both CAFE compliance and fuel economy labels). A-ll ------- The appropriate fleetwide factors to convert laboratory or older adjusted fuel economy values to the newer adjusted fuel economy values are dependent on the city fuel economy-to- highway fuel economy ratios in the fleet. On average, for the current fleet, combining the 11% lower adjustment for city fuel economy, the 8% lower adjustment for highway fuel economy, and the shift to the 43% city/57% highway weighting, the newer adjustment for city/highway composite fuel economy values is 7% lower than that used in the older label adjustment methodology. This 7% lower value is the average impact for a fleet with the mpg and city fuel economy-to-highway fuel economy characteristics of the current MY 2012 fleet, and would not be the appropriate value for individual models, partial fleet segments, or for past or future fleets with different mpg and city fuel economy-to-highway fuel economy distributions. • For model years 1986 through 2004, EPA calculates adjusted fuel economy values based on the assumption that the impacts of the factors that have led to lower real world fuel economy have occurred in a gradual (i.e., linear) manner over the 20 years from 1986 through 2005. On April 6, 1984, EPA published regulations that established the older fuel economy label adjustment factors of 0.9 for city fuel economy and 0.78 for highway fuel economy that took effect for model year 1985 vehicles (49 Federal Register 13832). EPA believes that these adjustment factors were appropriate through the 1985 model year. EPA has not attempted to perform a year-by-year analysis to determine the extent to which the many relevant factors (including highway speed limits, more aggressive driving, vehicle horsepower-to-weight ratio, suburbanization, congestion, use of air conditioning, gasoline composition, et al) that have affected real world fuel economy since 1985 have changed over time. Rather, EPA has made the simplifying, but we think reasonable, assumption that the collective impact of these changes has been a linearly increasing impact over the 20 years from 1986 through 2005. Using the equations shown above for individual models, EPA has assumed 1/20 of the fully phased-in downward adjustment for city and highway values would be reflected in the 1986 data, 2/20 of this adjustment would be reflected in the 1987 data, etc., up to 19/20 of this adjustment in 2004 and the full adjustment in 2005 and later years. Likewise, EPA has assumed the 55/45 city/highway weighting changes to a 43/57 city/highway weighting in a linear fashion over the 1986 to 2005 time period as well. The average fleetwide composite city/highway fuel economy values for 2005 were projected to be , on average, about 6% lower than the composite city/highway fuel economy value calculated with the older adjustment factors. To generate precise adjusted city, highway, or composite fuel economy values for individual models or for future fleetwide averages with different mpg or city fuel economy-to-highway fuel economy ratios than the current fleet, it is essential to use the above equations to calculate adjusted city and highway fuel economy values for individual models, then use the 43% city/57% highway weighting to generate an adjusted composite fuel economy value for individual models, and then calculate the harmonically production-weighted average of the individual models to yield the average composite fuel economy for the fleet as a whole. Alternatively, for a first-order estimate of generic fleetwide factors that one could use to convert values from the historic fuel economy trends database to the newer adjusted fuel economy levels, see the factors in Table A-4, which are based on the mpg and city fuel economy-to- highway fuel economy characteristics of the current fleet. For example, the industry-wide adjusted composite city/highway fuel economy value for model year 1986 in this year's report, which will be reported as ADJ COMP, is about .997 (1.0 minus 0.003, where 0.003 equals 0.3%, and the latter is equal A-12 ------- to 6% divided by 20) times the adjusted composite city/highway fuel economy value, or ADJ 55/45, from pre-2007 reports in this series. Likewise, the same industry-wide ADJ COMP value for 1986 can be approximated by multiplying the laboratory composite 55/45 value for 1986 by 0.851. The industry-wide ADJ COMP fuel economy values for model years 2005-2011 in this year's report are all equal to 0.80 times the laboratory composite 55/45 values. It is important to note that the above discussion, as well as all the data in this report, is focused on new model year vehicle fleets, i.e., the data for a MY2000 vehicle is most directly relevant for that vehicle operated on the road in calendar year 2000. Because most (though not all) of the real world factors reflected in this methodology are relatively independent of vehicle design, the best approximation of the adjusted fuel economy of a used MY2000 vehicle in calendar year 2011 would be to use the 2011 factors in Table A-4. Table A-5 provides a comparison of adjusted composite fuel economy values, for cars and trucks combined, using both the older fuel economy label methodology that has been used in pre-2007 reports in this series as well as the newer fuel economy label methodology described above and used in 2007 and later reports. No changes have been made in the way EPA calculates adjusted fuel economy values for 1975- 1985. For these model years, EPA still uses the 0.9 city/0.78 highway fuel economy adjustments established in 1984, along with the 55% city/45% highway weighting factor. EPA believes that this methodology was appropriate for the late 1970s and early 1980s and is not making any changes to adjusted fuel economy values for 1975 through 1985. No changes have been made in the laboratory (LAB) fuel economy values in this report. The laboratory city value remains the fuel economy value over the EPA Federal Test Procedure, the laboratory highway value remains the fuel economy value over the EPA Highway Fuel Economy Test, and the laboratory 55/45 is a weighted value of these two tests, with a 55% weighting of the Federal Test Procedure and a 45% weighting of the Highway Fuel Economy Test. The laboratory 55/45 values are used for CAFE compliance, in conjunction with alternative fuel vehicle credits and test procedure adjustments. Because the underlying methodology for generating and reporting the laboratory fuel economy values have not changed since this series began in the mid-1970s, these values provide an excellent basis with which to compare long-term fuel economy trends from the perspective of vehicle design, apart from the factors that affect real world fuel economy that are reflected in the adjusted fuel economy values. Finally, this same methodology for including real world factors in the adjusted fuel economy values is also reflected in the adjusted carbon dioxide (C02) emissions data as well. As discussed in Section IV, EPA back-calculated all C02 emissions values in this report from corresponding fuel economy values in the historical Trends database. Accordingly, the adjusted C02 emissions values explicitly account for the above methodology for 1986 and later model years. A-13 ------- Table A-4 Approximate Factors for Converting Industry-Wide Fuel Economy Values from Previous Reports to the New Fuel Economy Values in this 2012 Report Factors to convert Factors to convert older ADJ to new ADJ LABtonewADJ CITY HWY 55/45 CITY HWY 55/45 1975-1985 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.900 0.780 0.854 1986 0.995 0.996 0.997 0.895 0.777 0.851 1987 0.989 0.992 0.994 0.890 0.774 0.849 1998 0.984 0.988 0.991 0.885 0.771 0.846 1989 0.978 0.984 0.988 0.880 0.768 0.843 1990 0.973 0.980 0.985 0.875 0.765 0.841 1991 0.967 0.976 0.982 0.870 0.762 0.838 1992 0.962 0.972 0.979 0.865 0.759 0.835 1993 0.956 0.968 0.976 0.860 0.756 0.832 1994 0.951 0.964 0.973 0.855 0.753 0.830 1995 0.945 0.960 0.970 0.850 0.750 0.827 1996 0.940 0.956 0.967 0.845 0.747 0.824 1997 0.934 0.952 0.964 0.840 0.744 0.822 1998 0.929 0.948 0.961 0.835 0.741 0.819 1999 0.923 0.944 0.958 0.830 0.738 0.816 2000 0.918 0.940 0.955 0.825 0.735 0.814 2001 0.912 0.936 0.952 0.820 0.732 0.811 2002 0.907 0.932 0.949 0.815 0.729 0.808 2003 0.901 0.928 0.946 0.810 0.726 0.805 2004 0.896 0.924 0.943 0.805 0.723 0.803 2005 - 2012 0.890 0.920 0.940 0.800 0.720 0.800 Important Notes for Table A-4: 1. Multiplying the factors above times the appropriate values from pre-2007 reports approximates the newer adjusted (ADJ) fuel economy values in this 2012 report. Also, these factors can be used "in reverse" to convert new adjusted fuel economy values in this report to corresponding old adjusted fuel economy values or to corresponding laboratory fuel economy values, e.g., dividing an adjusted, combined city/highway MY 2012 fuel economy value in this report by .940 would yield a corresponding adjusted fuel economy value based on the methodology used in pre-2007 reports. 2. These factors are first-order approximations relevant only for industry-wide fuel economy values for the 1986 through 2012 timeframe. 3. Precise estimates for individual models require the use of the mpg-based equations for ADJ CITY and ADJ HWY provided above as well as a linear phase-in, over the 1986 to 2005 time period, for both the mpg-based equations and the change from a 55/45 city/highway weighting to a 43/57 city/highway weighting. 4. These approximations would yield the largest error for individual models or fleets with high mpg and/or high city fuel economy-to-highway fuel economy ratios. A-14 ------- Table A-5 Comparison of "Old" and "New" Adjusted Composite Fuel Economy Values, for Cars and Trucks Combined, for 2003-2012 Cars and Trucks Combined "Old" "New" Model Adjusted Adjusted Year Composite Composite 2003 20.8 19.6 2004 20.5 19.3 2005 21.2 19.9 2006 21.5 20.1 2007 22.0 20.6 2008 22.4 21.0 2009 24.1 22.4 2010 24.3 22.6 2011 24.5 22.8 2012 25.6 23.8 Important Notes for Table A-5: 1. "Old" adjusted composite fuel economy values are based on the EPA fuel economy label methodology used in previous reports in this series, i.e., 10% downward city adjustment, 22% downward highway adjustment, and a 55% city/45% highway weighting factor. 2. "New" adjusted composite fuel economy values are based on the new EPA fuel economy label methodology, applicable to MY2011 vehicles and used for the first time in the 2007 report and described in the previous section. A-15 ------- Comparison of EPA and NHTSA Data, 1975-2012 Table A-6 compares CAFE performance data reported by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration ("Summary of Fuel Economy Performance" report dated October 2, 2012 and available at www.nhtsa.gov) with the adjusted and unadjusted (laboratory) composite fuel economy data in this report. The NHTSA values in Table A-6 are generally higher than the EPA laboratory values due to differences in alternative fuel vehicle credits, test procedure adjustment factors for cars, and, for years prior to MY 2011, some minor differences in vehicle classification. In recent years for which both Agencies report final data, the NHTSA values are typically 0.6-1.0 mpg higher than the EPA values due to these differences. For MY2012, the preliminary NHTSA value is higher than the preliminary EPA number by 0.6 mpg for cars and 0.7 mpg for trucks. These preliminary projections are based on different data sets. The EPA value is based on automaker submissions in the spring and summer of 2011 to support vehicle fuel economy labels. The NHTSA value is based on automaker estimates provided in mid-model year CAFE reports later in 2011. Final MY2012 results will be reported in next year's report. The EPA car and truck fuel economy values shown in Table A-6 for years prior to MY 2011 differ from the values found elsewhere in this report. Beginning with the 2011 report, EPA reclassified most small, 2 wheel drive SUVs from trucks to cars for the entire MY 1975-2012 database. This reflects a regulatory change made by NHTSA for CAFE standards beginning in MY 2011 and which will apply for the joint EPA/NHTSA greenhouse gas emissions and CAFE standards that have been finalized for MY 2012-2025. These changes were not in effect for years prior to MY 2011, and accordingly NHTSA's CAFE fuel economy values prior to MY 2011 are based on the previous car and truck definitions. To enable a comparison to the NHTSA values, the EPA car and truck values in Table A-6 through model year 2010 were calculated using the previous car and truck definitions, which is not consistent with the rest of this report. While the individual car and truck numbers in Table A-6 are unique, the car and truck definitions do not affect the overall (car plus truck)fuel economy values, which are consistent with the rest of this report. A-16 ------- Table A-6 EPA Adjusted, Laboratory, and NHTSA CAFE Fuel Economy Values by Model Year Cars Trucks Both Cars and Trucks Model EPA EPA NHTSA EPA EPA NHTSA EPA EPA NHTSA Year Adj. Unadj. (CAFE) Diff. Adj. Unadj. (CAFE) Diff. Adj. Unadj. (CAFE) Diff. 1975 13.5 15.8 n/a 11.6 13.7 n/a 13.1 15.3 n/a 1976 14.9 17.5 n/a 12.2 14.4 n/a 14.2 16.7 n/a 1977 15.6 18.3 n/a 13.3 15.6 n/a 15.1 17.7 n/a 1978 16.9 19.9 19.9 0.0 12.9 15.2 n/a 15.8 18.6 19.9 1.3 1979 17.2 20.3 20.3 0.0 12.5 14.7 18.2 3.5 15.9 18.7 20.1 1.4 1980 20.0 23.5 24.3 0.8 15.8 18.6 18.5 -0.1 19.2 22.5 23.1 0.6 1981 21.4 25.1 25.9 0.8 17.1 20.1 20.1 20.5 24.1 24.6 0.5 1982 22.2 26.0 26.6 0.6 17.4 20.5 20.5 21.1 24.7 25.1 0.4 1983 22.1 25.9 26.4 0.5 17.8 20.9 20.7 -0.2 21.0 24.6 24.8 0.2 1984 22.4 26.3 26.9 0.6 17.4 20.5 20.6 0.1 21.0 24.6 25.0 0.4 1985 23.0 27.0 27.6 0.6 17.5 20.6 20.7 0.1 21.3 25.0 25.4 0.4 1986 23.7 27.9 28.2 0.3 18.2 21.4 21.5 0.1 21.8 25.7 25.9 0.2 1987 23.8 28.1 28.5 0.4 18.3 21.6 21.7 0.1 22.0 25.9 26.2 0.3 1988 24.1 28.6 28.8 0.2 17.9 21.2 21.3 0.1 21.9 25.9 26.0 0.1 1989 23.7 28.1 28.4 0.3 17.6 20.9 21.0 0.1 21.4 25.4 25.6 0.2 1990 23.3 27.8 28.0 0.2 17.4 20.7 20.8 0.1 21.2 25.2 25.4 0.2 1991 23.4 28.0 28.4 0.4 17.8 21.3 21.3 21.3 25.4 25.6 0.2 1992 23.1 27.6 27.9 0.3 17.4 20.8 20.8 20.8 24.9 25.1 0.2 1993 23.5 28.2 28.4 0.2 17.5 21.0 21.0 20.9 25.1 25.2 0.1 1994 23.3 28.0 28.3 0.3 17.2 20.8 20.8 20.4 24.6 24.7 0.1 1995 23.4 28.3 28.6 0.3 17.0 20.5 20.5 20.5 24.7 24.9 0.2 1996 23.3 28.3 28.5 0.2 17.2 20.8 20.8 20.4 24.8 24.9 0.1 1997 23.4 28.4 28.7 0.3 17.0 20.6 20.6 20.1 24.5 24.6 0.1 1998 23.4 28.5 28.8 0.3 17.1 20.9 21.0 0.1 20.1 24.5 24.7 0.2 1999 23.0 28.2 28.3 0.1 16.7 20.5 20.9 0.4 19.7 24.1 24.5 0.4 2000 22.9 28.2 28.5 0.3 16.9 20.8 21.3 0.5 19.8 24.3 24.8 0.5 2001 23.0 28.4 28.8 0.4 16.7 20.6 20.9 0.3 19.6 24.2 24.5 0.3 2002 23.1 28.6 29.0 0.4 16.7 20.6 21.4 0.8 19.5 24.1 24.7 0.6 2003 23.2 28.9 29.5 0.6 16.9 20.9 21.8 0.9 19.6 24.3 25.1 0.8 2004 23.1 28.9 29.5 0.6 16.7 20.8 21.5 0.7 19.3 24.0 24.6 0.6 2005 23.5 29.5 30.3 0.8 17.2 21.4 22.1 0.7 19.9 24.8 25.4 0.6 2006 23.3 29.2 30.1 0.9 17.5 21.8 22.5 0.7 20.1 25.2 25.8 0.6 2007 24.1 30.3 31.2 0.9 17.7 22.1 23.1 1.0 20.6 25.8 26.6 0.8 2008 24.3 30.5 31.5 1.0 18.2 22.7 23.6 0.9 21.0 26.3 27.1 0.8 2009 25.4 32.1 32.9 0.8 19.0 23.8 24.8 1.0 22.4 28.2 29.0 0.8 2010 25.8 32.7 33.9 1.2 19.1 23.8 25.2 1.4 22.6 28.4 29.3 0.9 2011 25.6 32.3 33.3 1.0 19.1 23.9 24.6 0.7 22.4 28.1 29.0 0.9 2012 27.3 34.6 35.2 19.4 24.3 25.0 23.8 30.0 30.8 A-17 ------- Comparison of EPA and NHTSA Data for MY2011 by Manufacturer The primary differences between EPA unadjusted laboratory fuel economy data and NHTSA CAFE values are flexible fuel vehicle (FFV) credits that are available to manufacturers that produce vehicles capable of operation on an alternative fuel (generally a blend of 85 percent ethanol and 15 percent gasoline), and test procedure adjustment (TPA) credits that apply to manufacturers of passenger cars. Any remaining offsets are due to alternative fuel vehicles, which are not included in the overall fuel economy values provided in this report (see section VIII Alternative Fuel Vehicle Trends, for more information about alternative fuel vehicles), or due to rounding. Table A-7 shows a detailed MY2011 comparison, for the eleven highest-volume manufacturers (excluding Hyundai and Kia), of the EPA laboratory fuel economy values from this report and final NHTSA CAFE values based on the year end fuel economy report data provided to EPA and NHTSA by automakers. This table shows how EPA laboratory values, FFV credits, and TPA credits "add up" to CAFE values. In order to be consistent with NHTSA CAFE reports, Fiat is excluded from the Chrysler data for Table A-7, but is included with Chrysler elsewhere in this report. The FFV and TPA credit values in Table A-7 were obtained directly from EPA's fuel economy compliance program. The data is from the annual manufacturer Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) Reports. The CAFE program recognizes Domestic and Import passenger vehicles separately, so the passenger car results in Table A-7 are calculated from these categories. The truck FFV credit values were obtained directly (trucks are not eligible for TPA credits). The combined car and truck FFV and TPA credits were generated using the car and truck sales. This column is shown for illustrative purposes only, since there are no CAFE standards for combined cars and trucks. For MY2011, five manufacturers earned FFV credits for cars and six manufacturers did so for trucks. All manufacturers were eligible for the TPA credits for cars. A-18 ------- Table A-7 Comparison of MY2011 EPA Laboratory and Final NHTSA CAFE Values by Manufacturer Manufacturer Passenger Car Light Truck Both Cars and Trucks EPA FFV TPA NHTSA EPA FFV TPA NHTSA EPA FFV TPA NHTSA LAB Credit Credit CAFE LAB Credit Credit CAFE LAB Credit Credit CAFE General Motors 29.8 1.2 0.2 31.3 22.0 1.2 0.0 23.2 25.7 1.2 0.1 27.1 Toyota 35.9 0.0 0.3 36.2 24.9 0.5 0.0 25.4 30.6 0.3 0.1 31.0 Ford 31.2 1.2 0.3 32.7 23.0 1.2 0.0 24.2 26.5 1.2 0.1 27.8 Honda 35.4 0.0 0.4 35.8 26.4 0.0 0.0 26.4 30.4 0.0 0.1 30.5 Chrysler 28.4 1.2 0.2 29.8 23.2 1.2 0.0 24.4 24.2 1.2 0.0 25.4 BMW 29.1 0.0 0.2 29.3 25.3 0.0 0.0 25.3 28.4 0.0 0.2 28.6 Daimler 25.1 1.2 0.2 26.6 21.1 0.0 0.0 21.1 23.7 0.7 0.1 24.6 Mazda 33.4 0.0 0.4 33.8 24.6 0.1 0.0 24.7 31.7 0.0 0.3 31.9 Nissan 33.3 0.0 0.3 34.1 23.8 1.0 0.0 24.8 29.6 0.5 0.2 30.5 Subaru 30.2 0.0 0.2 30.5 30.4 0.0 0.0 30.4 30.4 0.0 0.1 30.4 VW 33.5 0.1 0.2 33.9 27.1 0.0 0.0 27.1 32.1 0.1 0.2 32.3 * Two manufacturers, Hyundai and Kia, are not included in the table above due to a continuing investigation. On November 2. 2012, EP A announced that Hyundai and Kia would lower their fuel economy estimates for many vehicle models as the result of an EPA investigation of test data. A-19 ------- |