EPA/600/R-12/723
                                             June 2012


           Quantifying Sustainability in
           Puerto Rico: A Scientific Discussion
                     Puerto Rico Convention Center
                 San Juan, Puerto Rico • June 5-7, 2012
                   Final Report
&EPA
United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
   rtr or Putsro Rteo
OFFICE OF THE GOVERNOR
ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY BOARD

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  Proceedings of Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto Rico: A
                             Scientific Discussion
                                      Edited by

                                  Matthew E. Hopton
                                 Matthew T. Heberling
                         EPA Number: EPA/600/R/12/723
This document has been reviewed in accordance with U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
policy and approved for publication. Mention  of trade names or commercial products does not
constitute endorsement or recommendation for use.

The document was prepared by BLH Technologies, Inc., an EPA contractor under contract No. EP-C-
08-032,  and its' subcontractor, The Scientific Consulting Group, Inc., as a general record  of
discussions during the workshop, "Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto Rico: A Scientific Discussion "
held on June 5-7, 2012 in San Juan, Puerto Rico. The document captures the main points and
highlights  of the discussions and may include  brief summaries of work  group sessions. It is not a
complete record of all details discussed,  nor does it interpret or elaborate upon matters that were
incomplete or unclear. Statements represent the individual views of the workshop participants; except
as specifically noted, none of the statements represent analyses by or positions of EPA.

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                    Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto Rico: A Scientific Discussion
           Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto Rico: A Scientific Discussion

                              Puerto Rico Convention Center
                                   Meeting Room 104A
                                100 Convention Boulevard
                                      San Juan, PR

                                     June 5-7, 2012

                               EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The  purpose  of  the  U.S.  Environmental  Protection  Agency's  Office  of  Research  and
Development's symposium/workshop  entitled, "Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto Rico:  A
Scientific Discussion," was to establish a dialogue between researchers and decision-makers and
facilitate research to be used in policy and decision-making.  The  symposium was designed  to
discuss Sustainability; present ongoing research/work related to the identified issues; discuss what
researchers think policy-makers could  do to move Puerto Rico toward Sustainability,  relative  to
their research; and discuss what was necessary to implement their research island-wide (e.g., data
description  [spatial  and temporal  resolution],  policy relevance).  The  subsequent  workshop
provided participants an opportunity to present what they learned from the talks, how they could
use the information, and what was necessary to implement the research into decisions (i.e., what
research  is needed to fill gaps). Participants  included representatives from federal agencies, the
Commonwealth  of Puerto Rico,  academic  researchers,  and  nongovernmental organizations;
participants provided expertise from several disciplines.

The  event  provided  a new perspective for Sustainability researchers. Participants learned that
scientists have different visions  of Sustainability,  and a cohesive collaborative effort in the
Sustainability  community  is  lacking. The  symposium created  a missing forum for  scientific
discussion and was a first step  rather than the final answer. A number of recommendations were
put forth;  the primary recommendation  was the  establishment of a task  force with broad
representation and whose primary responsibility is Sustainability of Puerto Rico. The suggested
purpose of the task force is to establish a vision for Puerto Rico with  a number of associated goals.
The task force must determine the  current state of Sustainability in Puerto Rico and decide the
future path. It is important that all stakeholders are represented on the task force and Sustainability
must be addressed with short-, medium-, and long-term goals. In addition, the research community
must convert from discipline-based thinking to issue-based  thinking.

Everyone agreed that it was  important there be  an incentive for decision-makers and that
representatives from  the business sector are present  at future symposia. Moreover, there was an
obvious need for this event and the  effort to establish a Sustainability vision for Puerto Rico. The
symposium/workshop was a good first  step, and  the goal was to involve  the appropriate
individuals to further the effort,  regardless of government support.
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                     Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto Rico: A Scientific Discussion
                                  MEETING SUMMARY

INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW

The  U.S.  Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Office of Research and  Development's (ORD)
symposium/workshop entitled, "Quantifying Sustainability in  Puerto Rico: A Scientific Discussion," was
held in San Juan,  Puerto  Rico,  from  June  5-7, 2012. The symposium/workshop brought together
approximately 60 researchers from academia, nonprofit organizations, industry, and government to discuss
ongoing research to quantify Sustainability  in Puerto Rico (Appendix A includes the participants list).
Specifically, the objectives of the symposium were to share research and identify how the research could be
used to aid municipio and island decision-making. The workshop objectives were to learn from decision-
makers what information they need and how the researchers'  information can be  made useful to them to
make better-informed decisions.

The meeting served as a  stimulus to discuss issues pertinent to Sustainability in Puerto Rico, learn about
current Sustainability research projects in Puerto Rico and how the research could help decision-makers,
determine how EPA's ORD can collaborate  with researchers, and plan a coordinated research agenda and
activities to increase Sustainability in Puerto Rico. Notes from the meeting follow.

JUNES,  2012

Welcome/Perspectives
Jose Font, EPA, Region 2, Director, Caribbean Environmental Protection Division; Matt Hopton,
EPA, ORD, National Risk Management Research Laboratory (NRMRL); Ernesto Diaz,
Departamento de Recursos Naturales y Ambientales (Department of Natural Resources and the
Environment)

Dr. Hopton called the meeting to order at 9:27 a.m. and welcomed the participants to the meeting and to
Puerto Rico. The purpose of the symposium was to determine how current knowledge and science could be
integrated into policies and decision-making to  increase Sustainability in Puerto Rico. After  describing
some logistical aspects of the meeting, he explained the presentations  would be available on the website
after they have been made  Section 508  compliant. He thanked the Puerto Rico Environmental Quality
Board (EQB) for its sponsorship of portions of the event.

Mr. Font welcomed the participants to Puerto Rico  and thanked ORD  and the local entities that took the
initiative to develop the symposium/workshop. He also thanked the  academicians  and environmental
groups that helped to ensure the event came to fruition, as Sustainability is an important topic. He noted the
impressive amount of knowledge among the  participants, which he  said would be  significant as they
worked together to increase  Sustainability in Puerto Rico. Sustainability is based on  a simple principle:
Everything that is needed for survival depends on the natural environment. Sustainability creates and
maintains  the conditions under  which humans  and  nature can co-exist in productive  harmony.
Sustainability is important to  ensure that humanity continues to have the resources  to protect human health
and the environment. It is important to discuss this topic and disseminate the knowledge to be able to have
and enjoy a better future. Although some believe that  balancing a healthy environment and a healthy
economy is  a  "zero-sum  game" (i.e., both cannot be  attained), this  is false.  It is possible to maintain  a
sustainable environment  while developing a  strong economy. To do so, it is necessary to support the best
ideas and technologies until they become common practice.

It is best to begin with simple, local projects that help the environment in multiple ways. For example,
recycling is important because it saves energy, conserves raw materials, reduces the amount of waste sent
to  landfills,  and decreases pollution. The waste disposal situation  in Puerto Rico is dismal; all 29 waste
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                      Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto Rico: A Scientific Discussion
disposal facilities are out of compliance with environmental regulations. The recycling rate in Puerto Rico
is estimated to be between 8 and 12 percent, which is lower than in the mainland United States. EPA helped
to launch the Puerto Rico recycling initiative 2 years prior. The concept is that people will reduce, recycle,
and compost. The small amount of solid waste that is generated will be sent to a lined, environmentally
compliant landfill. This cost-effective  initiative created scores of new jobs.  Another method to increase
Sustainability is to increase use of public transportation. Puerto Rico has one  of the highest car ownership
rates in the world, and has the highest  asthma rate among U.S. states and territories.  Issues such as storm
water management and urban sprawl  would be mitigated if more people  used public  transport. It is
necessary to develop sources of clean, renewable energy, which will reduce the cost of health care, reduce
the  amount of resources used, and increase jobs. Many more jobs are created by renewable energy as
compared to coal-fired power  plants. The future lies in green energy; there is a market  for energy that is
sustainable and does not increase the burden on society.

Puerto Rico is working with  the U.S. Department of Energy to evaluate the feasibility of developing
renewable energy production at landfills and Superfund and Brownfield sites. The project  brings together
many experts from a variety of sectors to explore the  unique opportunity to generate renewable energy at
landfills. The  project has received  a commitment  from four municipios  to  install photovoltaic cells to
generate and distribute energy. Sites are authorized to transfer 5 megawatts of energy to nearby facilities in
need of energy. If the photovoltaic cells can be manufactured in Puerto Rico, this will bring additional jobs
to the island.  Training personnel on the island to install and maintain the cells also will create jobs.
Recently, $1 million was provided to a  cooperative formed by four municipios on the southern coast that is
determining how to make  the  best use of that area.  By training and working together, this group was
selected to move  forward with the initiative. Many municipios rely on more than 300 small,  private water
systems that have many issues  (e.g., bacteriological, compliance). Another pilot project  focuses on use of
portable technology to address these problems. Although the challenge is enormous, solutions  are available,
and science and technology will provide additional  solutions. It is necessary  to increase awareness of the
importance of Sustainability; focusing on small projects will help in this effort.

Dr.  Hopton explained that he and Dr. Matt Heberling were co-leading the research on Sustainability metrics
in Puerto Rico and that Sustainability has become a  focus of ORD research. The objectives of the meeting
were to: (1) discuss issues pertinent to  Sustainability in Puerto Rico (e.g., biodiversity, water quantity and
quality, habitat loss);  (2) discover what researchers in many disciplines currently are studying in Puerto
Rico  related to Sustainability  and how that research  can affect or help decision-makers; (3) learn how
EPA's ORD research  goals can be  enhanced and  applied in collaboration  with the research  described
above; and (4) plan a coordinated research program and implementation of integrated activities to move
Puerto Rico toward a more sustainable future.

ORD is a scientific research organization that focuses on addressing  research questions  with basic and
applied research,  which may aid decisions or regulations. The office provides the science and information
to help inform credible decisions for its customers, which include EPA regions and program offices and the
American public. The Sustainability  research group  within ORD  has  focused on  multidisciplinary,
integrated  research for years. In recent years,  EPA  moved  toward this  trend until ORD  Assistant
Administrator Paul Anastas determined in  2010 that it was  necessary to take  this a step further and
established the goal of Sustainability as the "true north" for ORD. All problems are addressed in terms of
Sustainability, and the solutions are examined for unforeseen consequences in a systematic approach. To be
truly  sustainable, it is  necessary to look far into the  future. The first EPA Administrator also  spoke of
Sustainability without a name when he  noted that  EPA's mission transcends dealing with the usual mix of
social problems.

To meet the goal of Sustainability, ORD has realigned its research into six programs that have  Sustainability
research at their core. Each program has research projects, which are further divided into tasks. Within the
Sustainable and Healthy Communities  Research Program (SHCRP), EPA researchers, their  partners, and


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                      Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto Rico: A Scientific Discussion
stakeholders are working together to form a deeper understanding of the balance between the three pillars
of  Sustainability—environment,  society,  and  economy—so that  individual  needs  are met.  This
transdisciplinary work will provide  the decision tools and data that communities need to make proactive,
strategic decisions  aimed at a prosperous, more  environmentally sustainable future.  SHCRP  research
focuses on developing  comprehensive  approaches  to help  communities  become more  sustainable;
developing decision-support tools, models and metrics that can be used to improve sustainable community
practices; and meeting EPA's regulatory requirements. The SHCRP research in Puerto Rico began in 2009
and includes coral reef management in the Guanica Bay Watershed and Sustainability metrics research. The
goals of the metrics research are  to develop decision-support tools  and data for examining system
Sustainability and to identify  trends  in moving toward or away  from Sustainability. Dr.  Hopton's
PowerPoint presentation can be found in Appendix B.

Mr. Diaz said that he would place  into context what Sustainability means to  Puerto Rico. The  world is
facing many challenges in mapping a course toward Sustainability. All current crises (e.g., energy, global
recession, and climate) are interconnected, and the  only manner by which to address them effectively is to
implement integrated solutions. Puerto Rico can be compared to small island nations, and the vulnerability
of its ecosystems arises  from the interplay of several factors (e.g., size, geographic dispersion, limited
resilience, unique biodiversity). Small island nations pay high costs for energy, infrastructure, transport,
and communications.

Agriculture and food security are important for Puerto Rico. The food crisis has highlighted the increasing
importance of agriculture to develop a safe and sustainable food supply. Less than 10 percent of the food
consumed on Puerto Rico is produced on the island, implying that the island's food supply is  not secure. It
is necessary to address development and natural system needs through integrated water resources  planning
and management. Use of water has increased six-fold during the last decade, and pressure  on water
resources  will increase as  the  population  increases. Although Puerto Rico has had a slight decline  in
population, water supply and sanitary infrastructure issues remain. In terms of biodiversity, most of Puerto
Rico and its outlying islands are covered by tropical forests; approximately 9 percent of the land  has been
designated as federally protected, whereas 25 percent of the island's water environments have received this
designation. Natural disasters are a  factor because  more than 10 percent of the population lives in flood-
prone areas. Mr. Diaz's organization has been working with 140 scientists, planners, economists, architects
and communicators for the past 2 years to gather the best knowledge  regarding climate change in Puerto
Rico. Working groups have identified information and use the  information to reduce and/or eliminate
potential effects and impacts. The results of this effort will be presented at the end of June 2012, and the
report is expected to be released in  the fall of 2012. Future climate change adaptation priorities also have
been identified.

Mr. Diaz's goal for the symposium was to discuss the shared vision of what Sustainability means to Puerto
Rico. He characterized the agenda as interesting and informative. Another goal was to promote partnerships
between stakeholder initiatives aimed at fostering and implementing Sustainability development initiatives
to  complement governmental action. He noted that new indicators of health  and well-being need to be
developed, and  a challenge in carrying forward  a  Sustainability strategy in Puerto Rico  would be  to
establish a shared vision, coordinate partnerships among various agencies and organizations,  and translate
the developed framework into coordinated action.

Discussion

A participant asked what interaction EPA has had with communities in Puerto Rico. Many communities are
active in Sustainability, and local students  need to be educated. Dr. Hopton agreed. ORD would like  to
establish collaborations with academia, as local researchers have a great deal of expertise from which EPA
researchers would benefit. The problem with working with individual researchers prior to this event is the
perception they have an advantage. Everyone is invited to share in this dialogue, and Dr. Hopton is hopeful


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                      Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto Rico: A Scientific Discussion
that this will be the beginning of a rich partnership. The participant noted that transparency in dialogue is a
tenet of sustainability and must be accomplished if true sustainability is to be achieved. Dr. Hopton agreed
and reiterated that he was hopeful that this symposium would result in a partnership between EPA and its
stakeholders in Puerto Rico. A participant added that ORD has been sponsoring workshops, and academia
has been invited  to participate. EPA  researchers  in Cincinnati, Ohio, are working with the Puerto Rico
Aqueduct and Sewer Authority.  Dr. Hopton reiterated that a dialogue has been initiated, and researchers
should contact ORD to continue the dialogue.

A participant noted that ORD is examining trends, but sustainability needs goals, which in turn depend on
visions; different  stakeholders have  different  visions.  In  examining  trends, how will ORD  go about
determining the consensus of the goals and involve the stakeholders when determining whether Puerto Rico
is moving from or toward sustainability? Dr. Hopton said that ORD has spoken with key people in agencies
and academia in Puerto Rico  and developed  a  framework for  sustainability,  but other  tools may be
necessary.  Recently, ORD has initiated place-based  studies.  In  addition to government and academia,
community members are being approached for their input via community outreach.

A participant suggested  that ORD should expand the academic  disciplines with which it is consulting;
many  fields  are  involved  in  sustainability research.  For example, she is a sociologist performing
sustainability research, but she only heard about this conference from an engineering colleague. Dr. Hopton
said that ORD identified academic members based on those  who had published in the literature about
sustainability within  the past 5 to 7 years. Unforeseen circumstances shortened the planning time for this
event;  ideally, the organizers would have had more time to research potential participants. He  asked the
participants to disseminate  information to their colleagues;  the goal is to be as inclusive, integrative, and
collaborative as possible.

A participant remarked that sustainability has become a buzzword and  expressed hope that  the effort
toward it would be serious. Will this collaboration deal with real issues? Will government decision-makers
take into account any metrics identified during  the symposium? Dr. Hopton said that this was the goal  of
the workshop.

A participant  noted  that policy  analysts and  decision-makers needed to be present at the  workshop.
Decisions are made by values and visions rather than empirical data. Dr. Hopton responded that goal was to
connect with sustainability researchers, determine what  ongoing research is being  conducted, and then
begin a dialogue  with the decision-makers to determine how  this research can  be effective in decision-
making. Decision-makers can explain to the researchers what they need, and the researchers can explain
why their information   should  be  important  to decision-makers.  Once  researchers  understand  what
information is needed, they can incorporate this into their research to provide useful information that will
inform decision-making. This event is  a starting  point.

Another participant commented  on the  importance of considering Puerto Rico as an island nation; U.S.
federal regulations are  not always applicable  to the island.  A  participant  noted  there are three  main
principles that guide the achievement of sustainability in  Puerto Rico: guidance for public and private
development in coastal  areas, support  for active management of coastal marine  resources, and active
research that fosters public participation. Social, political, and economic  issues have an impact on the
decision-making process. It is necessary to deal with reality and consider the sustainability one is trying to
achieve. Several  overlapping processes are  ongoing  (e.g.,  climate change, fish, and wildlife), and it is
necessary to combine these efforts to  find synergies. This is a great opportunity to contribute to an effort
that attempts to develop a baseline and then perform future monitoring. The group must collectively draft a
vision of sustainability for Puerto Rico.

Dr. Hopton noted that from a research perspective, there are not enough data, which need to be collected
and made  readily  available for researchers to use to quantify sustainability in Puerto Rico.


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                      Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto Rico: A Scientific Discussion
A participant expressed hope that the interaction between researchers and EPA would not be framed on a
basis of mistrust because of the legacy of mistrust. The role of EPA in Puerto Rico needs to be revised and
reconceptualized because of the uniqueness of the island and its needs for capacity building. Trust must be
built. He does not want the event to become a public hearing. EPA needs  to structure meetings so they
foster collaboration and reduce suspicions. It is necessary to move toward a collaborative partnership; Dr.
Hopton agreed.

Dr. Heberling said that ORD is  guided by  research questions  and moves forward by addressing these
questions. Feedback from local researchers and communities is  useful in advancing ORD's research in
Puerto Rico, because ORD scientists are  not the local experts.  The scientists, however, are  experts on
metrics. It is necessary to  work together  to determine whether  the metrics can be applied to decision-
making in Puerto Rico.

A participant commented the exchange of information causes a redistribution of power. Information and
ideas about paradigms and processes can be shared back and forth; processes and flow of information
capture the  attention of decision-makers better than data.  "Soft" science needs to be intertwined with
"hard" science to achieve policy change.

Puerto Rico Sustainability Metrics Project
Matthew Heberling, EPA, ORD, NRMRL

The PowerPoint presentation can be found in Appendix  C. Dr. Heberling provided the most  often cited
definition for Sustainability, noting that it includes economic, social, and environmental pillars. The concept
of  Sustainability  is  very  broad,  complicated,  and  challenging, and  a collaborative,  interdisciplinary
approach is needed to quantify it. A single metric or index will  not capture all aspects of a system. The
federal government must integrate economic, social, and  environmental policies to achieve Sustainability;
therefore, EPA and its partners are developing integrative decision-support tools and supporting analyses
that will help decision-makers choose sustainable development. The goal is for local decision-makers to use
the developed tools and analyses as part of their future environmental management decisions.

The specific goal  of ORD's Sustainability metrics project is to produce a straightforward, inexpensive
methodology to measure and monitor the prosperity and environmental quality of a regional  system. ORD
tested the approach in the San Luis Basin (SLB)  of Colorado. ORD's  definition of Sustainability is that
economic, social, and supporting environmental systems must work in concert to maintain a desired level
of functioning indefinitely; if any  single component is not sustainable, the entire system is not sustainable.
An indicator measures one characteristic of a system, whereas a metric combines many indicators through
aggregation to measure Sustainability. The ORD team emphasizes metrics above indicators to capture and
quantify system dynamics. Although some metrics can identify a system as sustainable, the  team thought
that it was more informative to identify where a system is heading because Sustainability is a moving target.
The multidimensional problem of Sustainability requires multiple metrics (e.g., ecological footprint analysis
[EFA], green net regional product, emergy analysis [EmA] and Fisher information [FI]).

As  a result of the work in the SLB,  the ORD team developed eight recommendations that it will apply to
future projects. The  team learned to involve stakeholders and decision-makers early in the process, and
there is no "one-size-fits-all" metric; tools must be tailored to fit  the region. For its follow-on project, the
team chose a second site that is completely different from the SLB, using the whole island of Puerto Rico.
Knowledge gained from the SLB  project informs the Puerto Rico project. This scientific symposium was
planned as a 2012 outcome with the goal of leveraging the knowledge of local experts. The process for the
metric research  was  formalized  based  on the Global Environmental  Management Initiative's Metrics
Navigator™, using four relevant metrics from the SLB project as a starting point. The objectives of the
project are to: (1) determine applicability of using existing datasets to estimate metrics on a regional scale,
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                      Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto Rico: A Scientific Discussion
(2) calculate metrics through time from 1960 to the present, and (3) compare and contrast the results to
determine whether the region is moving toward or away from sustainability.

Dr. Heberling described the four metrics being used for the Puerto Rico sustainability project: (1) EFA,
which captures the  supply and demand of biologically productive  land; (2)  green net national product,
(GNNP), which captures the welfare of the system; (3) EmA, which captures the flow of energy through
the system; and (4) FI, which captures the dynamic changes in the condition of a system. EFA and EmA are
measures of strong sustainability, and FI and GNNP are measures of weak sustainability. The team also is
interested in environmental justice.  In December 2009, the team  met with stakeholders and decision-
makers—including the Office of the Governor, the EQB,  the  Departamento de  Recursos Naturales y
Ambientales (Department of Natural and Environmental Resources; DNER), and  the Puerto Rico Solid
Waste Authority—to identify relevant issues. The stakeholders were asked what issues matter to Puerto
Rico and  sustainability to supplement the literature search performed by the team, which indicated  that
some relevant issues appeared to be soil erosion, land and habitat loss and transformation,  population
growth and density, coral reefs and fisheries, and water quality and quantity. In addition to these issues, the
stakeholders further identified invasive species, energy use, air quality, and trash and solid waste as issues.
The stakeholders were asked the following questions: Who are the relevant decision-makers for  island
metrics? What current research activities are planned or ongoing at government agencies  or universities
related to sustainability metrics or decision support? What are the data needs? Who are the best people with
whom to discuss data and availability?

Dr. Heberling discussed the current status of the project, noting that data collection is concluding, but the
progress on preliminary calculations depends on the metric. He chose the economic metric  of GNNP to
highlight the progress, explaining that although gross domestic product measures  market transactions, it
was never intended to measure welfare and ignores leisure and nature's contribution to welfare. Augmented
GNNP, however, captures the welfare of the  system. GNNP  also can be  used as a one-sided test of
unsustainability to determine whether a system is moving away from sustainability. Dr. Heberling showed
a graph highlighting the preliminary estimate of GNNP, which has risen since 1993. The next steps of the
project are to develop:  (1)  a proceedings from this meeting to identify existing  research and potential
collaborations,  (2) a written protocol for identifying and calculating the metrics  in Puerto Rico, (3) a
scientifically sound strategy for sustainable environmental management in Puerto Rico, and (4) journal
articles presenting the metrics and results.

Discussion

A participant asked  Dr. Heberling to define the term "stakeholder." He responded that it is a difficult term
to define; the team took a  broad view to be as inclusive as possible, but  this approach still could be
improved  because the team members were limited by their personal knowledge. In  this case, stakeholders
were  considered  those who  deal with, have knowledge of the  issues,  and  could inform the work. A
participant noted the public was not considered a stakeholder in this case and asked for confirmation  that
EPA generally considers the public.  Dr. Heberling confirmed that EPA often seeks public comment. Dr.
Hopton added that during the SLB project, the local universities  obtained public input; this approach could
be used in Puerto Rico. The ORD team is working closely with Region 2 and its Caribbean Environmental
Protection Division to involve as many  people as  possible.  The  goal  is to include a broad array of
representatives so that everyone's voice is heard.

A participant asked about nature's contribution to welfare and thought that perhaps some other elements
were being  undervalued. Dr. Heberling agreed there were underestimations  because of data availability,
and the team has not determined how to include those variables (e.g., coral reefs, fish stocks) in the GNNP
in a theoretical manner; recreation is partially included.
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                      Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto Rico: A Scientific Discussion
A participant was concerned about using FI, which applies a linear approach to a system that behaves
nonlinearly. A straightforward approach would be to use Google Maps and examine those activities that are
not supposed to be occurring (e.g., building of resorts in banned locations). Changes in regulations (e.g.,
more flexible  zoning and environmental  regulations) are straightforward indicators the government of
Puerto Rico is moving away from sustainability. These types of indicators should be added to the indicator
matrix, which will provide valuable  information. Dr.  Heberling said that FI  has been tested  in
environmental data to examine known changes in a system but recognized there is concern about using
environmental data in FI. It would be interesting to examine past decisions in relationship to the indicators.

A participant stated that inclusion of social sustainability indicators is absolutely necessary. Quantification
is needed to ensure transparency in decision-making. In terms of literature  searches,  the  University of
Puerto Rico has a particular method of promoting its publications, which must be published in Spanish in
Latin American forums.  An English literature search likely will miss many peer-reviewed  articles about
Puerto Rico research. Dr. Hopton explained that this was why the team attempted to be as inclusive as
possible because team members recognized they were coming from outside of the culture. For this reason,
the team asked the stakeholders in 2009 to identify issues in addition to those the team had found in the
literature.

A participant  asked what ORD was going to do for Puerto  Rico. Dr. Heberling responded that ORD
researchers wanted to work together with Puerto Rico researchers and stakeholders to provide tools to
allow Puerto Rico to move toward sustainability. The goal is to establish a dialogue  with Puerto Rico
researchers, decision-makers, and agencies.

A participant asked how scale issues were incorporated into the analysis. Dr. Heberling responded the work
was being performed on the island-level.  Some data from municipios may need to be scaled up, but the
analysis focuses on the island.

A participant suggested the ORD team examine the quality of data, determine how the calculations were
made, and examine the margin of error. Dr. Hopton said the team would appreciate help with this.

Legacies of Sodoeconomic Transitions on the Structure and Function of a Tropical Drainage Basin:
Resilience and Sustainability Implications
Carla Restrepo, University of Puerto Rico, Rio Piedras

The PowerPoint presentation can be found in Appendix D. Dr. Restrepo showed several photographs that
highlighted the common theme of abandoned structures and cars, nonrunning rivers, invasive species cover
and overgrown coffee plantations.  The Rio Grande de Arecibo  Watershed  (RGAW)  experienced high
levels of rainfall from  1899 to 1909, and a 1902  paper details  several waterfalls to be used for the
development of power. In 1909, the  uneven distribution of rainfall  on the island was noted; although sugar
cane was grown  in the  south, the north experienced higher levels of rainfall. An irrigation scheme was
developed that would remedy the irregular and insufficient rainfall in the south. Dr. Restrepo  displayed a
timeline that highlighted major events  in the development of the  water  supply in Puerto Rico, including
legislation at the U.S. and island levels and the addition of major infrastructure in the watershed. The most
recent activity was the development of a super water aqueduct that connects the eastern  portion of the
island to the watershed. As a result, the majority of the island is connected to the watershed.

Water has  multiple uses, is  a  valuable resource that can be moved via technology and  infrastructure
development, and is a commodity that  connects people across great distances. Infrastructure development
occurs in cycles;  when one cycle ends, the old infrastructure becomes a nuisance. Can the function of the
watershed be maintained with the entire built infrastructure? Stream network and water quality and quantity
are used to assess the watershed, and these variables change across time.  Eco-hydro-geomorphic and
socioeconomic processes can affect the health of the watershed.


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Sustainability is about the intersection of social, environmental,  and economic factors, and sustainable
development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future
generations  to meet their  own needs. Ecological resilience is the  amount of disturbance (e.g., water
withdrawal, water management) that a system can absorb without changing its state or structure and still
function. As such, the researchers developed three questions: What are the relationships between stream
and infrastructure networks and patterns of human occupation in the RGAW? How do socioeconomic
conditions  and  water quality  indicators vary  across  the RGAW? Is  there  a relationship between
socioeconomic and water quality variables?

The main towns in the watershed have been established on the  river; therefore, there is a relationship
between humans and stream network. The researchers chose four variables to determine the variability of
the watershed. The researchers examined whether there was an  association between water quality and
socioeconomic  status  and determined  there  was; the lowest  water quality  is  found in  the  lowest
socioeconomic areas.  In terms of stream network and socioeconomic indices, headwaters are in areas of
high concern. When the  researchers added  information  regarding  public infrastructure  network and
socioeconomic indices, they determined  that large infrastructure  projects have negative impacts on the
citizens of Puerto Rico.  Based on their data, the researchers concluded that  stream networks  are key
elements in the organization of human  settlements, and public  infrastructure  networks have impacted
human populations. Socioeconomic indices  are spatially heterogeneous and may suggest regime shifts;
socioeconomic and water quality indices were correlated in one instance.  Finally, areas of socioeconomic
concern appear to be associated with areas in which public infrastructure projects have been developed.

Discussion

A participant commented the watershed is located in a highly calcified area, which affects water quality, so
perhaps this is a contributing factor. Dr. Restrepo responded the water quality data were obtained from the
upper portion of the watershed. She noted the need for agricultural water  explains why infrastructure was
built in unsuitable areas (e.g., those prone to landslides).

A participant thought that data might say  more about how society has changed from agricultural to
industrial rather than  about water use. Dr. Restrepo said there had been  competition  for water, water is
needed  for energy production, and mountain agriculture required water, which  created large amounts of
sediment. Many efforts have been focused on dealing with this sedimentation.

A participant noted that from a political standpoint the historical view is fascinating. The regional level of
analysis is  important to examine  policy regimes regarding the development of infrastructure. There  has
been no change in regime: the centralized nature  of decision-making still exists. Local knowledge is not
used in  the development  of infrastructure. Examining the various  layers could provide a better picture of
the Sustainability (or unsustainability) of an area across time. Dr. Restrepo agreed that it is important to
learn from past mistakes to improve the future.

Resident Perception and Valuation of Green Areas and Riverbank Hypothetical Improvements in a
Tropical Urban  Watershed
Luis E. Santiago, University of Puerto Rico Graduate School of Planning

This PowerPoint presentation can be  found in Appendix E. Dr.  Santiago described the San Juan Urban
Long-Term  Research Area (ULTRA) project. The  study attempted to increase understanding  of the
perceptions of residents toward green areas and bodies of water and provide an estimation of the valuation
attributed by residents to them. San Juan is located in the  Rio Piedras Watershed, in which more water
flows through potable water and sewer pipes than its rivers  and tributaries. The land-use change since the
1930s, which Dr. Santiago illustrated with satellite images, has been dramatic and has led to many changes
in ecosystem  services. Green infrastructure  contributes to  the socioecological  system in terms of flood


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control, temperature regulation, pollution control, soil conservation, aesthetic and recreational value, and
planting of fruits and vegetables.

To explore the watershed, the researchers developed the integrated socioecological sampling network to
examine  houses within defined sampling circles. The  researchers conducted 441  20-minute, in-person
interviews between January and August 2011 to obtain a representative sample of watershed residents.
Housing  sales data from 2005 to 2009 were obtained, and property addresses were used to geocode  the
georeferenced points of these sales. The researchers defined a viewshed representing visible green areas
from  a property and estimated  residential housing  distance to public green areas, rivers, streams and
shopping malls. The researchers found there has been a progressive isolation from the river because of
human intervention (e.g., channelization). Residents who had visited the river were on average older than
those who had not. Two-thirds of the residents who knew the location of the river had never visited it.
Based on interviews, there appears to be a gap between a stated preference for trees in properties and the
reduction in public and private green areas in the watershed.

The hedonic  method was used to  estimate the value of green areas. The hedonic method is an indirect
valuation method that infers consumer values from observable market transactions, in this case the housing
market. Factors considered when purchasing a home include its  physical characteristics and distance to
other amenities. The researchers investigated approximately  1,000 housing sales using  linear regression,
with housing purchase as the dependent variable versus six independent variables. The preliminary results
indicate there is no statistically significant  relationship between the  purchase price  of properties and
distance  to large public  urban green areas  within the Rio Piedras watershed;  however, a positive and
statistically significant relationship  was found between green area visibility and property purchase price.

Next, a contingent valuation exercise of stream and riparian environmental services was conducted, with
the intent  of assessing  the  feasibility of  a voluntary  contribution  (willingness to  pay [WTP])  for
collaborative management funding. Participants were shown two pictures of two different river scenarios:
dirty and clean. None of the variables that explained resident connection to nearest stream were statistically
significant. Median WTP was estimated at $155.48 per household per year, and expected median revenue is
$4.8 million per year. The next steps are to continue  characterizing green areas and bodies of water in the
watershed,  identify Sustainability  indicators  in consultation with stakeholders, and quantify and value
important ecosystem services in the watershed. Further information can be found at the San Juan ULTRA
website (http:// www.sanjuanultra.com).

Discussion

A participant asked whether Dr. Santiago thought the housing  market crash  may have influenced  the
results. Dr. Santiago replied that this variable would be introduced into the analysis in the next phase.

A participant asked whether river use was dependent on the area of the study. Dr. Santiago responded the
area of the  study  included the six sampling sites, and  the researchers  analyzed by study area and by
individual sampling site. The  sampling method may be influenced by age, as the older population tends to
be home during sampling. Anecdotal evidence  indicated that people are  not using  the  river because
obstacles to doing so have been introduced.

A participant asked whether the researchers planned to analyze the difference between condominiums and
single-family homes. Dr. Santiago  explained that although there were condominiums within one sampling
site,  the  majority  of the  residences visited  were single-family  homes. There  did not appear to be a
significant difference between the two housing types in terms of preferences for green areas.

A participant asked who was considered a stakeholder in the study, and Dr. Santiago replied the community
and the local government were considered  stakeholders. A participant involved in the research project
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added the research questions were developed using stakeholder input from the beginning of the project;
scientists, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), community leaders, and the government guided the
research in terms of what was most relevant.

In response to a  question from a participant, Dr. Santiago explained the researchers asked community
members if they knew the location of the river; most knew but had not visited it.

Green Area Loss in San Juan's Urban Neighborhoods: Estimation Methods, Environmental
Consequences, and Preliminary Identification of Precipitating Factors and Processes
Luis Enrique Ramos, University of Puerto Rico Graduate School of Planning

This PowerPoint presentation can be found in Appendix F. Mr. Ramos explained there were several reasons
to study suburban green areas. (1) Urban and suburban private and public residential  green areas are
considered beneficial for the natural  environment and societal well-being. (2) They provide significant
health,  economic and ecological  benefits. (3) Their continuous detriment and/or loss are considered
problematic. (4) Suburban residential areas constitute the majority of San Juan's metropolitan footprint. (5)
Green areas are an intrinsic element of the suburban landscape, and their loss represents the erosion of a
Utopian vision that sought a healthier and closer relationship between man and nature.

In this  research, socioeconomic, physical/spatial and land-use trends, and technological and regulatory
characteristics as they evolve in time, are documented and analyzed. The study also attempts to quantify the
loss of environmental services and identify the socioeconomic and technological factors and processes that
are associated with suburban green area loss. The objectives of the  research are to: (1) design and apply
methodologies for suburban green area loss/gain estimation; (2) use quantitative and qualitative techniques
for socioecological  analysis;  (3) understand the  link  between socioeconomic  trends, technological
conditions and cultural/legal factors that influence green/grey area dynamics in suburban neighborhoods;
and  (4) expand  the discussion on  Neighborhood Decline  Cycle  Theory  by incorporating  explicit
environmental issues. The researchers  performed green area loss quantification  for three neighborhoods in
Rio Piedras.  Green cover loss  quantification via aerial photography was in process at the  time  of this
meeting.

The results indicated the Puerto Nuevo neighborhood had a 209 percent increase in its building footprint
between 1948 and 1968, resulting in a green area loss of 25.83 acres.  Caparra  Terrace experienced a 135
percent increase in its building footprint between 1956  and 2008 with a green area loss of 25.35 acres.
University Gardens, the most affluent  neighborhood, lost only 14.57  acres of green area, with a 63 percent
increase in the building footprint between 1965 and 2008. This  green  area loss results  in a loss  of
environmental services, including increased storm-water runoff and  sedimentation,  diminished carbon-
absorption capacity, degraded aesthetic qualities, loss of habitat for flora and fauna species, loss  of noise-
absorption capacity, and loss of spiritual and psychological well-being.

Additionally, socioeconomic and housing data were compiled for each of the three neighborhoods using
U.S. Census data from 1960 through 2000. University Gardens residents' median income was  considerably
higher and the poverty rate lower compared to the other two neighborhoods; the population density of all
three was similar, although the housing density of University Gardens was considerably lower. Increases in
auto ownership in the Caparra Terrace  and Puerto Nuevo neighborhoods resulted in an increased number of
carports. Preliminary findings  indicate that loss of green areas  occurred in  each of the three  private
residential areas,  with  the  exception  of  most  condominium  properties.  In older working-class
neighborhoods, green area loss is significantly  larger. Factors associated with  green area  loss include
conversion from residential to commercial land use, increases in automobile ownership, and increases in
low-rent housing units and density. The environmental and socioeconomic trends identified by this study in
older  neighborhoods  present  an unsustainable process  of  neighborhood decline,  with  negative
consequences for the local  and surrounding socioecological system.  These areas need to be addressed by


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the government in a proactive and comprehensive manner. The opportunity is present to enable these
neighborhoods  to evolve  into  more sustainable  human  settlements through  simultaneous physical
redevelopment  and socioeconomic revitalization programs in which lost green areas  and environmental
services are recuperated.

The next  steps  are  to  increase  the sampling of  neighborhoods  with diverse socioeconomic  and
morphological-typological  characteristics  to  conduct statistically significant  studies, quantify loss of
environmental services resulting from suburban green area loss, and perform statistical regression analyses
between socioeconomic variables and green area loss ratios. Finally, Mr. Ramos highlighted a proposal to
improve Sustainability in via a long-term urban vision for one of the neighborhood units in Puerto Nuevo.

Discussion

A participant suggested collecting data regarding urban flash floods to determine whether the loss of green
areas results in increased flash flooding.

A participant noted  the  relationship  of socioeconomic status  and  the number of trees has  been well
documented; one explanation is that those in higher socioeconomic classes view nature  as  recreational,
whereas those in lower classes view it as their working environment. This research fits very well into this
paradigm. Mr. Ramos said that perhaps the working class values housing over green areas.

A participant commented that more decision processes are being based on consensus rather than individual
propensity to invest.  Is there a limit to  economic tools (e.g., WTP)  compared to sociological tools?
Mr. Ramos responded that a possible source of error is that WTP measures the response to a hypothetical
situation rather than an actual experience.

A participant asked  whether the  researchers were  going to  experiment with  other  methodologies.
Mr. Ramos explained the obstacle to achieving Sustainability is  financial, and many subsidies are needed.
The research attempted to define a unit of growth so that Sustainability could be achieved block by block.
Redevelopment ideally would happen if the residents are owners of the area and establish a land trust. The
government's role is  to  educate  and help establish such a trust.  Self-collective ownership allows for
negotiation of profit sharing, thereby improving the economic  situation of the  resident owners, creating
green areas and establishing a legal framework to protect these areas.  Based on the  government's past
record, a participant warned about including it as a third party.

A participant asked where the residents would live while their housing was being redeveloped. Mr. Ramos
responded the current proposal requires 20 to 22 houses; people would be relocated temporarily to the base
housing of a nearby-realigned Army base, which as a Base Realignment and Closure Act base can be used
under an  economic development conveyance. All levels  of complexity must be addressed  to advance
Sustainability block by block.

Dr. Hopton expanded the discussion to include questions and comments for Drs. Restrepo and Santiago in
addition to Mr. Ramos.

A participant asked the three speakers to  comment on the value of quantifying Sustainability to achieve
target goals. What is an appropriate metric to quantify conditions in the watershed needed to achieve the
Sustainability goals  at  the watershed level? Dr. Restrepo responded that  a watershed is a producer, so
quality can be an indicator for the sustainable  management of a watershed. The question is: Sustainable for
whom?  There are trade-offs between local  and regional Sustainability.  Dr. Santiago added that it is
necessary to manage institutional factors before implementing the indicators process. Stakeholder input is
important to ensure the selection of the appropriate indicators.
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A participant asked Mr. Ramos whether the arterial avenues were considered detrimental to the long-term
planning strategy of the urban vision. Mr. Ramos said the neighborhood did not plan for the tertiary sector
of the economy, and this lack of planning is a problem because it was not designed for or optimal; it may
have occurred because of a lack of governance. Planning provides an opportunity to develop a sustainable
community. It is necessary to predict and adapt in a sustainable manner.

A participant asked Dr. Santiago whether it was possible the people in his  survey did not visit the river
because of water quality. He responded that garbage in the river and safety issues were cited as reasons for
not visiting.

Integrated Management as an Essential Component of Sustaining Coral Reefs and Associated Fisheries
Richard S. Appeldoorn, University of Puerto Rico, Mayaguez

This PowerPoint presentation can be found in Appendix G. Dr. Appeldoorn explained  that coral reef
ecosystems are complex, nonlinear socioeconomic and environmental  systems.  Impacts to coral  and the
fish that interact with the coral affect the entire system. Controlling land-based pollution is where  humans
can have an impact, but whether the system will respond or if it is possible for coral reefs to recover is
unknown. Coral cover and overall fish and herbivore abundance decline  with turbidity. There has been a
steady decline in water transparency since 2000; 40 centimeters of light penetration are lost per year, for a
total of 4 meters (m) during the past decade. This is a direct result of the land environment; to manage the
marine environment, it is necessary to manage the land environment.

Connectivity across the seascape enhances  productivity.  Dr.  Appeldoorn  highlighted this concept by
showing graphs of the habitats of early juveniles, juveniles, and  adults of several fish  species, noting
differences and similarities among the habitats. Scientists can use a combination of locations and habitats to
determine the essential fish habitat; it is necessary to think at a much larger scale  about what is going to
maximize or maintain the connectivity that is important to all of the species combined. It is necessary to
consider ecosystem function  (e.g., settlement, recruitment, nursery habitats,  connectivity, spawning  sites)
and how it affects ecosystem services (e.g., commercial  and recreational fisheries, shoreline protection,
scientific research, bioactive compounds). It is possible to link subsections of habitats to function; dividing
habitats into much finer segments in terms of fish habitats and their functions allows  conservation of the
most critical areas needed to maintain function. Marxan, software designed  to aid  conservation planning,
was used  to  identify critical  habitat and target areas  of high protection.  Important criteria in this
determination include shoreline-to-shelf edge  inclusion,  larval  connectivity based  on  a  40-kilometer
distance between areas, and replication of targets.

Resilience  also requires "first principles"  for fisheries management, such as  maintenance of ecosystem
integrity (i.e., conservation of biodiversity) and function, rigorous protection of habitat and water quality,
maintenance of monitoring reference points, and  production limits and  extraction control.  Management
tactics include protection of herbivores, predators, spawners, and habitat; establishment of marine reserves
to protect spawning stocks and trophic structures; controlled fishing and reduced overfishing; adjustment of
water quality standards to match ecosystem needs; and  more rigorous coastal construction permitting
decisions. The goal  is that with  integrated watershed  approaches,  erosion control, marine reserves, and
coastal and marine spatial planning, the coral reefs will recover.

Discussion

A participant asked  whether the researchers  had identified an increase in  turbidity. Dr.  Appeldoorn
responded there was not a straightforward answer to this question, but Dr. Ernesto Weil would address this
during his presentation.
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A participant asked what is included in the model. Dr. Appeldoorn replied that a map of habitat was used;
how habitat is  defined impacts the output and whether it is related to ecological function. Marxan was
designed to identify areas prioritized for development of a marine protected area; it is a cost-minimization
program. Five factors are examined, and a spatial map with various costs is generated.

An Interdisciplinary Erosion Mitigation Approach for Coral Reef Protection—A Case Study From the
Eastern Caribbean
Juan Amador-Gutierrez, Greg L. Morris Engineering-COOP

The  PowerPoint presentation can be found in Appendix H. Mr. Amador-Gutierrez provided background
about the location of the project, Culebra, which is an island 19 miles east of Puerto  Rico, which supports
coral reef ecosystems that are characteristic of northeastern Caribbean marine biodiversity and represent
highly valuable sources of fishing,  tourism, and recreational activities. Coral reefs near Puerto Rico are
among the most highly threatened reefs of the Caribbean as a result of the combined effects  of climate
change, coral bleaching, increased incidence of disease, overfishing and the delivery of inland pollutants; a
reduction of 50 to 80 percent in coral coverage in the Cayo Luis Pena Natural Reserve near Culebra has
been observed since 1997.

The  objective of the project is to describe an innovative framework by which technical knowledge gathered
by marine ecologists, watershed scientists, and civil and environmental engineers can be best employed in
the development  of an erosion-mitigation strategy that best uses available funds to reduce impacts. To
achieve this, the researchers used a multistep approach. The first step included collecting basic information
to describe coral reef abundance and condition, estimating watershed-scale sediment loading  rates,  and
evaluating  the  feasibility of onsite installation of erosion  control measures. The second step was to
formalize an approach to select the watersheds and associated marine habitats that merit a preferred status
for the implementation of erosion-control activities.  The third step is  to choosing the specific sites (i.e.,
sediment sources) and methods (i.e., best management practices [BMPs]) to be implemented  within the
priority areas  by  invoking  a sediment-reduction  cost-effectiveness  analysis. Mr.  Amador-Gutierrez
displayed  a flowchart highlighting the  general scope of the proposed interdisciplinary erosion  mitigation
strategy.

The  researchers assessed the abundance of coral  reef habitats  based on aerial coverage and pre-existing
benthic habitat maps. Data on structure and condition were obtained at depths of 3 to  7 m and included
percent cover of  benthic components. The researchers  investigated eight watersheds on Culebra, and, in
terms of watershed assessment, Culebra's unpaved road network is considered the island's most important
anthropogenic source of sediment. Erosion and sediment-yield assessments relied on application of the St.
John Erosion Model (STJ-EROS), which estimates erosion rates from natural and anthropogenic sources of
sediment based on empirical equations  developed from data collected on St. John, U.S.  Virgin Islands, an
island with a similar physical  setting as Culebra.  Unpaved roads on Culebra were found to be similar to
those from which the STJ-EROS road-erosion algorithms were developed in terms of substrate, road prism
geometry, and range of slopes.

Developing BMPs is  limited by  an  existing  and thus mostly immovable  road network  layout,  a
characteristically  rugged topography, and a lack of locally available specialized materials  and  equipment
that  significantly  increases costs; these limitations reduce the number of BMPs that otherwise would be
considered feasible. Three main types of BMPs were  evaluated: (1) methods that improve the resistance to
erosion processes by preventing the  direct contact of rain and runoff with the soil surface, (2) methods that
minimize  the  amount  of flow on  the unpaved road  surface  and  thus reduce  its  erosive energy,  and
(3) methods that  attempt to capture as  much sediment as possible while runoff is transported through or
discharged from  the road  prism. BMP selection in most cases is site specific, and  a combination of
individual  BMPs usually is the most  effective alternative. Therefore, the researchers developed three
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general road designs or treatments, each incorporating a different subset of BMPs, resulting in different
costs and erosion rates.

Coral reef condition assessments are based on a one-time observation, and erosion analyses explicitly lack
the capacity to understand sediment dynamics and effects once delivered to the marine environment. The
combined watershed and marine habitat evaluation procedure is based on three criteria: (1) abundance of
the marine resource, (2) marine resource condition, and (3) stress level. Each criterion being considered for
analyses can be graphically portrayed as one axis of a three-dimensional cube. The cube also serves to map
the justification or goal  of erosion-control activities being  implemented. Implementation of erosion-
mitigation strategies for coral reef protection can be justified because of three main motives—preservation,
prevention,  and remediation. In conducting the coral  reef condition  assessment, the same analysis was
performed for all  of the parameters (e.g., percent cover  of total  algae, macroalgae, algal turf, crustose
coralline algae,  and cyanobacteria cover;  coral-to-macroalgae ratio)  relative  to  sediment loading rates.
Results indicated the two watersheds that merit additional analysis  are Ensenada  Fulladosa  and Cayo
Dakiti; erosion control in the Ensenada Fulladosa Watershed could be  justified based on the argument that
marine  systems are interconnected through complex ecological  functionalities so that benefits  to  a
submersed aquatic vegetation-dominated area could  improve conditions  in nearby reef areas. The Puerto
Del Manglar Watershed was chosen as the target area for conducting cost-effectiveness analyses because of
its high sediment  yield rates, its  relatively extensive  unpaved  road  network, and the poor-to-moderate
condition  of its adjacent  marine resources. The results indicated the BMPs depend on the amount of
funding available.

The researchers concluded the strategy  serves in part to choose priority target watersheds for erosion
control based on the intentions of the mitigation efforts. The cost-effectiveness analyses  aid in choosing
specific sites and  erosion-control  methods  to  maximize the net reductions in sediment  loads  while
minimizing  costs (e.g., "the  biggest bang for the buck"). Finally, application of this cost-effectiveness
analysis to one watershed in  Culebra suggests the choice of most effective erosion-control method varies
according to the amount of funds available for implementation.

Discussion

Because of  time constraints,  Dr.  Hopton asked the participants  to save their  questions for Mr. Amador-
Gutierrez until after the final coral reef speaker had presented.

Coral Reef Decline in Puerto Rico: Link to Global Warming, Potential Social Impact and
"Sustainability"
Ernesto Weil, University of Puerto Rico, Mayaguez

This PowerPoint presentation can be found in Appendix I. Dr. Weil explained that coral reefs are more than
400  million  years  old, widely distributed and have  survived  four  major extinction events  in Earth's
evolutionary history. Their fine tissue layer provides benefits by influencing the chemical balances of the
ocean, fixing/absorbing 700  billion kilograms  of carbon dioxide per year, protecting coasts, aiding in
formation of other important communities,  and serving as a reservoir of biodiversity and high productivity.
Humans additionally benefit because coral  reefs are a source of protein and economic support for millions
of families and  provide pharmaceuticals, education, recreation,  and ecotourism (i.e., source of income).
Reports from the last 20 years, however, indicate there has been a significant degradation of coral reefs
worldwide, resulting in a loss of live coral cover, productivity, fecundity, biodiversity, and the capacity to
absorb carbon dioxide  and fix calcium carbonate. The major threat to coral reefs and their Sustainability is
humans.

Dr. Weil reiterated the three pillars of Sustainability (economic, societal, and environmental) always are
included in definitions  of Sustainability. Degradation of coral reefs because of anthropogenic factors, global


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climate change, and natural hazards offers no sustainability. Coral reefs can recover from natural hazards,
but the synergy of anthropogenic factors, which increase carbon dioxide, hurricanes, and so forth, decreases
the coral reefs' capacity to recover and induce mass mortalities, reduce reproduction and calcification, and
increase bioerosion.

Dr. Weil described a case study of the village of La Parguera on the southwestern coast of Puerto Rico,
which has  experienced sustained but not sustainable development since the 1930s. There has been no
erosion control, which  has increased sediment runoff across the southern coast to the city of Ponce. There
has been a  significant decline in water transparency in La Parguera over time, which is correlated with the
sedimentation. Furthermore, winter mean surface sea water temperatures have been above average for 5
years in a row, which is correlated with a shift from seasonal to chronic infectious diseases in coral reefs.
Two  major bleaching  events correlated with  above-average temperatures  and were  accompanied by
increased disease outbreaks with high coral mortality.  These bleaching events affected 52 coral species, and
the 11 biotic diseases  affected 42  coral species; the  significant mortalities  of corals and other important
members of the  coral reef community resulted in  the loss of habitat and productivity and had epizootic
consequences. There was a mean coral cover loss of 53 percent in La Parguera between 1994 and 2010.

Sustainable coastal growth in Puerto Rico is desired, but coastal growth has been unsustainable in practice.
It is  not  possible to reach sustainability until local and global environmental deterioration is controlled,
which in itself is not possible unless all stakeholders are involved in the process and human population
growth is controlled. Coral reefs are slow growing and take many generations to recover. To foster this
recovery, it is necessary to improve environmental conditions, protect genetically diverse populations of the
main reef-building species by increasing  the number and area  of Marine Protected Areas,  involve all
stakeholders, and reduce human population growth.

Discussion

Dr. Hopton opened the discussion  to include  questions for the three coral reef speakers: Dr. Appeldoorn,
Mr. Amador-Gutierrez, and Dr. Weil.

A participant asked Mr. Amador-Gutierrez whether any traffic analysis had been performed. Mr. Amador-
Gutierrez responded that it had not been. The participant asked whether Mr. Amador-Gutierrez was aware
of technology for percolated road surface.  Mr.  Amador-Gutierrez replied  that  he  was aware  of the
technology, but  the researchers avoided this approach because  of the cost  of  importing materials  and
equipment. The focus was on solutions that could be implemented easily on the island, without the need for
expensive importation.  The goal is  to teach the machine operators not just how to retrofit a technology but
also  how to implement sustainable future planning.  In response to  a question from  the  participant,
Mr. Amador-Gutierrez  explained the area was a low-traffic area.

A participant asked who pays for the strategies and who had paid for the roads to be built.  Mr. Amador-
Gutierrez responded that it was the responsibility of the private landowners or the municipio. A regulatory
framework is supposed to be in place to control road construction, but it is not enforced. There has been no
planning, and those involved are ignorant of BMPs. A participant commented that this indicates the  best
investment of money is in education of the local residents. Mr. Amador-Gutierrez agreed and explained the
next project is to develop a workshop for local decision-makers and the community to provide education so
they have the knowledge of how to make on-the-spot decisions about the proper routing and creation of
roads; BMPs regarding how to manage stormwater  will be included as well. A participant noted that it was
important to educate citizens so they know how to choose leaders who will take the desires of constituents
into consideration when making decisions.

A participant noted that Culebrans no longer can afford land on Culebra. Enforcement officers at the local,
island and federal levels  ignore environmental complaints from residents. Another participant commented


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the DNER is not responsible for enforcement. It sought to be deputized, but the EQB refused, citing the
additional work that this would cause. In response to a question by this participant, Mr. Amador-Gutierrez
explained the analysis was cost-adjusted for Culebra construction costs.

The participant commented that 80 percent of Puerto Rico's land cover was lost between 1830 and 1950,
which increased sedimentation, and asked Dr. Appeldoorn how synergistic effects could be occurring now
when there has been a 50 percent increase in land cover. Dr. Appeldoorn responded that approximately
one-half of the sediment  from the  earlier  deforestation still  is in the river systems;  the  legacy of
deforestation is ongoing. Dr. Weil added the significant increase in rainfall during the previous decade has
contributed, as the rainfall pushes more sediment from the rivers. Enrichment of nutrients produces organic
particulate as well.

A participant asked whether algae were having any positive effects on the marine environment. Dr. Weil
said that if they could be harvested, algae would be an excellent source of biofuel. Black sea urchins are
returning, and algae are a food source for this  species; this could allow recovery of coral and fish. It is
difficult to determine what benefits may be derived from an algae-dominated habitat.

A participant from EPA commented that, in terms of enforcement, Vieques and Culebra are challenges for
Region  2. The Agency currently is  involved in  several enforcement actions on these islands and  will
continue to be involved as long as EPA maintains jurisdiction. Currently, the Agency only has stormwater
jurisdiction on property greater than 1 acre. If EPA has not engaged in enforcement, then it does not have
jurisdiction. Mr.  Amador-Gutierrez added the  EQB is comprised of political appointees  who need to
perform their jobs because the locals do not have the technical knowledge to do  so. The goal is to educate
the local population. A participant noted that to change the current culture it is necessary to educate citizens
so they  have the power to pursue politicians and hold them accountable. Mr. Amador-Gutierrez explained
the goal of his project is to help residents properly and responsibly develop their properties in favor of the
environment.

A participant commented that coral reef environmental Sustainability  is one area in which there is  a great
deal of  scientific information regarding causes of decline and scientific monitoring. The gap is not  lack of
scientific data but rather institutional. There are questions about the boundary of the marine-terrestrial zone
and who is responsible for what actions, which in turn affects the flow of information. Who is accountable?
Someone must take responsibility, and EPA is in a unique position to tell the government what actions need
to be  taken to build Sustainability and improve coral reef condition. Mr.  Amador-Gutierrez thought that it
was a matter of consolidating and enforcing the current laws rather than developing new laws. His next
planned project has been delayed because officials still are trying to decipher the new permitting laws.

A participant commented the paradox is the major government plan in the  1960s was to develop the  coastal
areas, which probably resulted in many of the current problems. The shift from a mountain population  to a
coastal population has had significant  impacts. Mr. Amador-Gutierrez commented the core of the problem
could be observed in the room; the decision-makers are not present and they do not consider Sustainability
when making decisions. It is necessary to educate them  so they do consider  Sustainability. He has been
trying to integrate  Sustainability into the  engineering  and execution of his  projects, but it has  been a
challenge because of the  considerable pushback that he has received. The Sustainability message must be
disseminated everywhere.

A participant stated that if EPA is searching for metrics, it is necessary to look at the priorities of Puerto
Rico.  There are "loaded" questions  regarding implementation, and policy is key. To move forward, it is
necessary to educate decision-makers and communities  and re-educate those who were  not educated
correctly.
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                      Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto Rico: A Scientific Discussion
A participant commented on  the  historical  importance of what is occurring currently. A cultural
transformation began 60 years prior; Puerto Rico has assimilated U.S. consumption patterns, which has led
to the current situation. This is a cultural problem and must be contextualized within the social framework
in which each decision is made. Another participant agreed that it is  necessary to speak to the island's
cultural heritage and educate island residents about the effects their actions have on the coral reefs. A
participant commented that it is  difficult to establish a link between people's actions and  ecosystem
services; for example, most of the fish consumed by Puerto Ricans is imported. There is an intersection
between the  environment,  society,  and  economy.  Researchers  have  an idea about  impacts in the
environmental and economic sectors, but society is limiting  sustainability, and that needs to be  addressed.
Additionally, the current  political structure  is limiting, but short-term  actions can help the long-term
situation.

A participant thought the  metrics should include the fact the majority of the members of Puerto Rico's
government appear overly  concerned about their political careers to the exclusion of all else.

A participant commented that land ownership drives decision-making in the absence of clear zoning laws;
poor decisions made on a case-by-case basis have built up to the massive problems in existence now.
Mr. Amador-Gutierrez agreed that it is a complex problem, and the goal of his project was to illustrate what
could be accomplished with various amounts of funding.

Day 1 Wrap-Up

Dr. Hopton thanked the speakers for generating such  engaging discussion. His  goal is  to continue the
dialogue with the  participants even after the event has been completed. He hopes that more decision-
makers  will be present during the remainder of the event. He thanked the participants and recessed the
meeting at 5:42 p.m.

JUNES, 2012

Welcome
Matt Hopton, EPA, ORD, NRMRL

Dr. Hopton called the meeting to order at 9:32 a.m. He hoped the discussion would be as interesting and as
informative  as  the  discussions  had  been  the  prior  day.  After reviewing  some  logistics for  the
symposium/workshop, he  said  that it was necessary for the participants to consider how, as a group, they
could present to the decision-makers,  ensuring the key  points from the discussion are presented to them.
The purpose of the symposium/workshop was to share research, identify how the research should be used
to aid municipio and island decision-making, and learn  from decision-makers what information they need
and how the researchers' information can be made useful to them.

"Achiev ability" vs. "Sustainability": Including Community Acceptance Consideration in  the
Implementation  of Renewable Energy Projects in Puerto Rico
Maria Perez-Ortiz, University of Puerto Rico, Mayaguez

This PowerPoint presentation  can be  found  in Appendix J. Dr. Perez-Ortiz explained there had been a
paradigm shift when considering renewable energy; the terms "green," renewable" and "sustainable" are
used interchangeably, but they are not truly interchangeable.  Green indicates that something is less harmful
than petroleum-based alternatives. Sustainable processes are renewable but are implemented in  a different
manner. The term renewable indicates the resources can  renew themselves. A key aspect of sustainability is
transparency, and  if this  is not present,  then renewable energy  projects can be unsustainable. Social
acceptance is  a  set of sociopolitical, community, and market characteristics that determine  the social
sustainability of renewable  energy projects. Achievability  does not imply that a plan is  acceptable or


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                      Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto Rico: A Scientific Discussion
sustainable; social acceptance is based on public perception. Empirical research shows that 30 percent of
nonfinalized wind farm projects in Europe are  stopped  by lawsuits and  public resistance.  Community
ownership models have a positive effect on local acceptance, which is not related to knowledge or attitudes
toward  renewable  energy  technologies.  Siting  issues  include  distrust and environmental  justice.
Investigations  indicate that community  acceptance  of wind power schemes  is not explained by  the
egotistical motives of local residents  (i.e.,  the "not in my backyard"  [NIMBY] syndrome) and indicate
locals' commitment to equity issues and fairness of decision-making.

The researchers developed a survey to systematically and randomly sample 409 residents older than age 18
in three communities (Vieques, Catano, and Camuy) previously targeted for the siting of a wind energy
project. The residents of Catano  were surveyed before  and after the wind,  turbines were  constructed.
Stakeholders were identified and analyzed; the stakeholders were complex  with varying motives and
perceptions; there was some conflict when the stakeholders were considering the best course of action. In
terms of general knowledge, the most recognized renewable energy sources are wind and solar. There is a
positive bias toward solar energy. Survey respondents think the sun is the least expensive, safest, and least
polluting energy source.  Solar energy is perceived as the most viable for development in Puerto Rico as
well in their community.

In terms of procedural justice, the developer is responsible for informing the  community via community
meetings rather than public hearings. Community participation is very important, particularly at the early
stages of project development. The  community should be involved in the project's approval and in
selecting the project's location. The community needs to have access to independent experts for a neutral
perspective on the technology and the project. In terms of distributional justice, the community should be
compensated if the project is approved against its will, although most communities tend to sacrifice their
well-being for the good  of Puerto Rico.  Fair compensation schemes include discounts on electric bills,
provision of electricity to a local school or hospital, or another activity that brings collective well-being.
The communities  have  issues  with trust.  The majority of community members  voted in  the  general
elections,  but this has had little impact  on the  community's well-being.  Community members  distrust
current decision-making processes and doubt the  government and the private sector have the community's
interests and needs in mind when proposing new infrastructure projects.

In examining the pre- and post-surveys in  the community of Catano,  the  researchers found  there was a
significant increase in community members who  thought that wind and natural gas are renewable sources
of energy. There was an increase  of those  community members who thought the community should
sacrifice for the good of all of Puerto  Rico. Presurveys indicated that 78.5 percent of respondents thought
that politicians cared about citizens' opinions,  whereas post-surveys indicated that only 20.9  percent
thought this way.  Successful implementation of renewable energy projects in Puerto Rico will need to
consider aspects of social acceptance in  addition to technical achievability. The researchers proposed a
Community Acceptance  Index for Renewable Energy Projects (CAIREP) at the community level to  move
Puerto Rico toward sustainability. CAIREP will include collection of data on communities near identified
renewable energy resources, which will allow integration of social acceptance information with renewable
resources  availability data into a map that identifies communities that exhibit high achievability and
acceptability of renewable energy  technologies.  Another goal  is  to  develop a policy  toolbox  for  the
successful implementation of renewable energy projects in Puerto Rico.

The research questions for the project include: How do communities located where renewable resources
can be extracted perceive current decision-making processes? How is the  distribution of costs  and benefits
associated with renewable energy projects perceived? What are the perceived economic, environmental,
and aesthetic  consequences of a  renewable energy  project in the targeted  community? These  three
questions  address justice, equity, and impact, respectively. There are  similar governmental  initiatives
designed to ascertain community acceptance in countries around the world; the European Union leads in
terms of this kind of research. To implement the research on social acceptance in Puerto Rico, it is


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                      Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto Rico: A Scientific Discussion
necessary to ask the following  questions: Can  sustainability be truly defined? Can Puerto Rico move
toward sustainability? Can researchers speak to the policy relevance of their research? Can researchers say
what is necessary to implement their research island-wide that has not been said already? Sustainability is
defined in very different ways, and the  social  dimension of sustainability  is based  on conflict; these
conflicts must  be addressed. The key to the achievement of sustainable development is broad public
participation in decision-making.

Discussion

Because of time constraints, Dr. Heberling asked that discussion be saved for later in the session.

Renewable Energy Self-Sufficiency Roadmap of Puerto Rico
Jose Colucci, University of Puerto Rico, Mayaguez

This PowerPoint presentation can be found in Appendix K. Dr. Colucci explained that various studies have
shown that Puerto Rico has the  resources  necessary for energy self-sufficiency,  but the  question  is
implementation. In March 2011, the President's Task Force on Puerto Rico's  Status released a report
indicating that  renewable energy was beneficial  to Puerto Rico to move toward sustainability. The basic
premise of the work is that Puerto Rico has agreed, as a society, to achieve self-sufficiency in producing all
of the island's electricity while keeping electricity prices at 2010 levels or lower. The study also assumes
that future political will and public policies will be aligned with the goal of energy self-sufficiency. The
goal is not to abandon the grid but rather to update it, incorporating renewable and sustainable tenets.
Biofuels, preferably  produced on the island, will run the grid instead of fossil fuels. The transition will
include  replacing  fossil fuels with variable energy resources. To accomplish this, load reduction  and
identification of variables sources will be necessary. Once this is complete, the next step will be to explore
baseload options,  including  biomass and nonrecyclable  waste  gasification,  landfill energy, anaerobic
digestion, algae oils and ocean-thermal sources. Storage and frequency control will provide stability to the
grid.

A net 17  percent reduction  in energy load  requirements was projected as technically and economically
feasible given past experience in commercial, residential, and industrial settings. Air conditioning must be
considered;  Puerto Rican market acceptance leans toward energy-efficient air conditioners  versus other
appliances. Offshore wind represents the  largest single potential source of renewable  energy for Puerto
Rico. The proposed effective capacity would be approximately 300 megawatts, which is enough to supply
10 percent of projected Puerto Rico electrical energy demand; this proposed capacity is very conservative,
and 10 times the capacity is possible. In terms of strategic crops and biomass, all crops must have multiple
uses to be successful. Pumped water storage provides stability to the system by providing energy when the
wind does not. This type of technology already is being used and must be brought to Puerto Rico. The
various facilities will be placed throughout the island, so  it will be important to move past the NIMBY
syndrome. The  total investment will be billions of dollars, which will need to be a joint investment between
the government and the people. Once this investment is complete, the  cost will be  $1 billion annually,
versus the current $2 billion annual investment for petroleum. A constitutional amendment may be needed
to accomplish this.

A key benefit of the  implementation of this roadmap will be the creation of direct and indirect jobs, which
can range from 2,000 and 50,000, depending on the percentage of savings that is used for salaries and cash-
flow circulation of the savings. It is important to keep the funds and jobs local. Dr. Colucci highlighted the
example of the  inclusion of photovoltaic panels for local energy needs in terms of workforce development
and expansion of local industries. Additionally, income from biofuels could be as much as $5 million to $1
billion annually. To achieve this, a 15- to 20-year commitment is needed. The government needs to move
beyond its comfort zone and examine the areas that are most likely to succeed.
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                      Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto Rico: A Scientific Discussion
Discussion

A participant commented that a finance scheme via taxes potentially could work, but trust  must be
included. The taxpayers need to know these funds are being used for their intended purposes and not for
political gain. A more transparent government is needed. Dr. Colucci responded that community members
would see the results in their houses or communities (e.g., presence of photovoltaic panels). A direct joint
investment will cost $1 billion annually, and it is necessary to determine from where these funds will come.

A participant asked whether the analysis included the environmental  cost of each strategy. For example,
biofuels require intense agriculture.  It is necessary to perform a preliminary analysis because this question
will be raised by multiple stakeholders. Dr.  Colucci said that it was necessary first to agree to eliminate
fossil fuels. Once this  is accomplished,  then the components of the plan can be determined. There is no
point in moving forward unless there is an agreement to eliminate fossil fuels.

A participant noted that 50 percent  of the roofs on the island could provide 100 percent of Puerto  Rico's
electricity needs. Dr. Colucci agreed and stated the importance of being self-sufficient but not necessarily
independent ofthe grid.

A participant mentioned that an agreement  to switch to natural gas would involve an agreement  to a
transitional process. Dr.  Colucci said that natural gas  is at the core of a degrading situation because
individuals on both sides of the issue use only  their own agendas  to drive the discussion and focus on
passing blame. Transitioning to natural  gas  is the best way to move  toward renewable  energy, although
natural gas itself is not  a renewable energy.

Large-Scale Spread of Vines and Sustainability
Diana L. Delgado, University of Puerto Rico, Rio Piedras

This PowerPoint presentation can be found in Appendix L.  Ms. Delgado explained that her research was
inspired by her observation of the increasing amount of vine patches over the landscape of Puerto Rico; she
was driven to attempt to understand this occurrence. The vine patches are comprised of multiple species,
both native and exotic. Vines are a functional group of plants represented in more than 80 families and can
be woody or herbaceous. A common characteristic among the species is the need for other structures to
support them. They are important for the economy (e.g.,  agricultural and ornamental uses) and, until recent
years, generally had been ignored in the literature. Vine  invasions are common in other parts of the  world,
including the southeastern United States, Australia, and Hawaii.

Many factors favor vine  success, including their ability to grow rapidly and  make rapid use of available
resources; their life strategy allows  them to  invest less resources on their own support. Vines are able to
take advantage of human-built infrastructure  (e.g., poles and lines of utility networks); this infrastructure
works as corridors that help vines to  overcome physical barriers in the  landscape. Vine spread alters the
landscape configuration, which  in turn can  alter the function of the landscape and  the services  that it
provides,  thereby decreasing  Sustainability.  Additionally,  vines increase  infrastructure  vulnerability.
Because this new, vine-invaded state is  very resilient, the vine invasion process makes the state  of the
system vulnerable to a shift toward a vine-invaded landscape.

Examining connectivity on a large scale can be challenging, but networks that model invasions can be used
to  represent  and  measure  connectivity. Spatially explicit networks provide  information  about the
configuration of the network in the landscape, including the  identification of important clusters or groups.
Networks are a tool used for management and conservation and provide information about the resilience of
the network.  Modeling was applied to a central portion of  the island along the RGAW. The  study  area
contains a complex mosaic of environmental conditions (e.g., subtropical forest, mountains, dry forest) and
diverse land uses (e.g.,  rural, urban, agricultural). This area once was the center of agriculture on the  island,


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but the shift of the population to the coast resulted in many abandoned coffee plantations. The researchers
used image processing of high-resolution satellite imagery to classify the land, followed by an accuracy
assessment. Next, network analysis was performed to determine the probable dispersal of vines among the
existing patches. It is possible to detect the importance of certain patches in terms of connectivity. The
thought is that perhaps if these patches can be eradicated, it will be easier to eradicate the overall system.

Ms. Delgado described the location and size of the vine patches in the study area and the vine network node
degree distribution. Only 16 of 780 found vine patches were highly connected. In terms of infrastructure,
58  percent of poles and  30 percent  of lines observed showed vine growth; power company  workers
continually clean the lines, which may explain the lower percentage.  Among the vines found growing on
the poles, the  dominant species was found to be a native woody vine (Cissus verticillata), followed by
Ipomoea species, some of which are exotic. The average length of these vines was llm, but some were
measured at 41 m and crossed  streets, hills and  small rivers. The researchers concluded the landscape is
dominated by  small vine patches. The majority  of vine patches cover crop lands, and these patches are
larger than those found in other land uses. In addition, the majority of vine patches have a small number of
connections. The few  highly connected vine patches as well as the large clusters of vine patches are found
within 150 m of the road network of secondary and tertiary roads.

Discussion

A participant asked how many individual vines constitute a patch. Ms. Delgado responded the number of
vines is difficult to determine  because  of the  density and tangling. A patch  on  a  satellite  image is
100 m2; patches must be dense to be seen  on  satellite.  The participant asked  whether the researchers
performed ground-truthing. Ms. Delgado explained that this was part of the accuracy assessment.

A participant asked about the connectivity. Ms. Delgado explained that dispersal was considered. The plan
is to create several networks to allow  for  minimum  and maximum distribution  to  observe how the
distribution of patches changes.

A participant  noted that once  invasive species impact local  species they become important. There is a
disconnect between reality and people's perceptions of exotic species. What can be done to close this gap
and move biodiversity conservation forward?  Ms. Delgado said that this was a good point and added that
most species are noted in  the literature after they become a problem. Most people do not understand the
connection, so education is one method of closing the gap. It is important to maintain human well-being,
and many do not understand that ecosystem services are important to this well-being. People need to be
educated to understand this connection.

A participant said that from a policy standpoint, it would be beneficial to examine the different views at the
different levels of analysis; different generations have different views.  Use of network  analysis is excellent,
and the researchers should go one step further and use social science regarding political views.

A participant asked about the  impacts of the vines on the entire canopy, including  coverage of species
considered part of sustainability (e.g., fruit). Ms. Delgado responded that part of the  problem is that it is
very difficult to restore an area that has been totally invaded to its original state because of the investment,
time, and labor required.  This makes the vine-invaded state  very resilient, even on active plantations.
Because the vines are extremely fast-growing, intense  labor and significant amounts  of time are spent
clearing the plantations because they are surrounded by an abundance of vines.

Dr. Heberling opened the discussion to  include questions for the three speakers: Drs.  Perez-Ortiz  and
Colucci and Ms. Delgado.
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In response to a question from a participant, Dr. Colucci said that it might be possible to use the vines as
biofuel. A participant noted the vines grew into a problem in response to policy; they were used to decrease
erosion. This is an example of an unforeseen circumstance, and it is important to learn from the past.

A participant asked Dr. Perez-Ortiz whether a difference between social acceptance and rejection has been
seen historically. Dr. Perez-Ortiz  responded that she did not think so.  Some land uses have clear-cut
opposition in any backyard, but wind farms are not clear cut. People tend to agree about their benefits, but
the process can create opposition, and Internet social networks allow for quick organization of opposition.
Another participant added that it  is necessary  to consider environmental justice.  There also  have been
arguments  among green groups about projects that supposedly are environmentally friendly; people believe
in different levels  of environmentalism, which creates a  schism. The  process  of implementation is
important for environmentally sound projects to be sustainable. A participant stated that governance is
another issue that compounds the problems of process.

A participant noted that agriculture is an important stakeholder that was missing from the discussion; this
important sector needs to be included.

In response to a question, Dr. Perez-Ortiz said the perception of the Catano residents that natural gas was a
renewable  energy source during the post-survey  could have been a result of the  massive  marketing
campaign for the Via Verde natural gas pipeline. This determination was outside the scope of the research.
She noted that stakeholders have a certain vocabulary, and it is necessary to understand this vocabulary so
the message is not "lost in translation."

Tropical Coastal Sustainability 101: Lessons Learned From the Slippery Road Toward Sustainable
Practices in Puerto Rico Under a Climate of Change
Edwin A. Hernandez-Delgado, University of Puerto Rico, Rio Piedras

This PowerPoint presentation can be found in Appendix  M.  Before providing  his recommendations,
Dr. Hernandez-Delgado highlighted a series of lessons learned:

    Lesson #1: Caribbean hurricane frequency, and in some  areas severity, have increased. It is necessary
        to  examine Sustainability when developing coastal areas, as they are  susceptible to sea level rise
        and flooding from hurricanes.

    Lesson #2: The sea  surface  temperatures  near Puerto Rico and Culebra have increased. Spring
        temperatures are  behaving  like summer  temperatures, creating  an  extended summer; winter
        temperatures also have increased.

    Lesson #3: There has been  a  nonsustainable increase in coastal  urban development during the
       previous six decades. Per each square kilometer of land in Puerto  Rico, there are 3 kilometers of
        road; much of this infrastructure is poorly maintained.

    Lesson #4: The frequency of localized extreme rainfall events has increased.

    Lesson #5: There are indicators of nonsustainability in the socioeconomic  development  of Puerto
        Rico. These indicators include: decreased public participation  in governance; permanent negative
        done to the environment "for the sake  of progress"; continued socioeconomic degradation (e.g.,
        increased crime, decreased quality of life); lax regulations (e.g., zoning, environmental); decision-
        making processes conducted with significant conflicts of interests and corruption; revenue leakage
        (i.e., leaves the island); and lack of recognition that climate change impacts constitute a significant
        threat.
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    Lesson #6:  Large-scale  development along watersheds and the coast have resulted in a  chronic,
       dramatic decline in coastal water quality.  This is highlighted by the fact the Great Northeastern
       "Reserve" has been abused and is in a permanent state of turbidity.

    Lesson #7:  Increasing water turbidity has been accompanied by  a significant  increase  in fecal
       pollution.

    Lesson #8: Chronic fecal pollution, turbidity, and eutrophication kill corals.

    Lesson #9:  GIS-based modeling shows impacts at the subwatershed level can significantly influence
       sewage pollution gradients.

    Lesson #10: The  major coral reef decline during  the previous decades  has been accelerated by
       unprecedented massive bleaching and coral  mortality. There has been  a significant loss of reef-
       building coral  species, causing  a collapse in population as  well as community structure phase
       shifts.

    Lesson #11: The richness of coral species has been declining  across the Great Northeastern Reserve.

    Lesson #12: Coral reefs are on a "road to slime. " There has been an 80 percent loss in coral cover.

    Lesson #13: Increasing Fajardo River flow has been accompanied by a significant long-term decline
       in Montastraea annularis (boulder star coral) growth and calcification rates.

    Lesson #14: Demographic models of recurrent massive bleaching and mass mortalities in M. annularis
       suggest rapid extinction.

    Lesson #15: A significant fish biomass decline (i.e.,  loss offish) occurred between 1997 and 2007.
       Nontarget  fish decline  following the loss  of coral  and  other fish is important because overall
       decline across  different trophic  groups suggests  significant nonsustainable impacts across  large
       spatial and temporal scales  as  a result of  fishing  impacts  and  environmental degradation. In
       addition, large-scale coral mortality has resulted from climate change-related impacts.

    Lesson #16: Coral farming aimed at multispecies reef rehabilitation may be successful. Community-
       based rehabilitation is an opportunity to transform  behavior in a positive manner.

Dr. Hernandez-Delgado next provided his recommendations for a  sustainable Puerto Rico:

    •   Integrate the community  into all aspects  of the Sustainability process, including  discussion of
       problems, planning, decision-making, implementation, adaptation, and revision.

    •   Acknowledge that scientists have the responsibility to translate technical  knowledge into "normal,"
       lay language.

       Foster a sustainable  development  model  in Puerto Rico by  immediately adopting  adaptation
       policies to climate change impacts, along with initiatives  to reduce the vulnerability of natural and
       human systems along the  coast to expected climate change effects and improve  food security
       through appropriate agricultural and fisheries planning and management.

    •   Immediately adopt adaptation policies to climate change impacts with initiatives to: improve water
       quality  and availability through appropriate water  resources management, improve support of
       planning and operations in the public health  sector,  improve  disaster risk management, prioritize
       capacity building, and ensure greater availability of and access to ecosystem services.


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    •   Review and modify existing international policies of institutions (e.g., World Bank, United Nations
       Environment Programme, and U.S. Agency for International Development) so that Puerto Rico is
       not in the same category as the  United  States and, thus,  considered  a developed nation. This
       erroneous classification excludes the island from significant funding and resources directed toward
       capacity building.

    •   Provide  a moratorium on the Puerto Rico government policy of fostering nonsustainable tourism
       and urban development across the coastal zone until an environmentally and socioeconomically
       sustainable  strategy  is implemented through a reviewed, sound land-use plan; a  climate change
       adaptation  strategy;  the  reincorporation  of community-based participatory  processes;  and
       community-based integration into all  aspects of the process, including discussion of problems,
       planning, decision-making, implementation adaptation and revision.

    •   Reanalyze all permit applications  under consideration by commonwealth and federal government
       agencies under stricter parameters to ensure long-term sustainability and meaningful community-
       based participation.

    •   Eliminate the standard EPA policy of fostering Clean Water Act Section 301(h) waivers to Puerto
       Rico  regional sewage treatment facilities.

       Establish a long-term coastal water quality monitoring program.

    •   Modify existing coastal water quality microbiological standards in Puerto Rico.

       Establish nitrogen and phosphorus standards.

    •   Rehabilitate  coral reef ecological functions and ecosystem values via community-based  coral
       farming  and reef-restoration initiatives. These successful initiatives have resulted in important
       hands-on educational experiences that have fostered a paramount transformation in behaviors.

    •   Expand  the current scale  of community-based reef management efforts by improving  funding to
       foster improved capacity building, training and education, and new projects  across  different
       localities in Puerto Rico.

    •   Capitalize on the existing opportunity to ensure that today's investment in coastal tourism and
       urban development  will  not  compromise  the availability  and quality of resources  for future
       generations.

    •   Use a precautionary  approach  in  investing in coastal development  to  minimize the risk of and
       vulnerability to projected climate change-related impacts.

       Transform from the current nonsustainable model to a sustainable alternative.

Discussion

Dr. Heberling held off discussion until after the final speaker of the morning.
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                      Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto Rico: A Scientific Discussion
Community-Based Efforts for Sustainable Conservation and Management of Coral Reefs at Vega Baja
and Manati, Puerto Rico
Ricardo Laureano, Vegabajenos Impulsando Desarrollo Ambiental Sustentable (VIDAS) (Vegabajenos
Promoting Sustainable Environmental Development)

This PowerPoint presentation can be found in Appendix N.  Mr. Laureano  stated that Acroporid coral
populations  have largely declined across the Atlantic during  the  last four decades as a result  of a
combination of natural and human factors, including climate change. The north shore reefs of Puerto Rico
also have seen this decline. Coral reefs across the high-energy but poorly studied northern coast of Puerto
Rico still support impressively large thickets of threatened Elkhorn coral; fringing reefs off Vega Baja and
Manati  have  very high densities of this  species. If the government continues  the practice  of using the
maritime terrestrial zone as a site for permanent structures,  the whole archipelago will be destroyed without
the protection of the natural coastal barriers and the food source the reefs represent; enforcement also is an
issue. Growing the coral reef to stabilize the breakers is the way  to manage the water level rise associated
with climate change.

Without permits, a private company  contracted by the municipio of Vega Baja affected the ecosystems.
Since 2004, the company has been required to follow an EPA  order to minimize impacts within the water
bodies.  This  construction, however,  increased chronic turbidity, coral mortality and illegal raw  sewage
spills. The mayor of Vega Baja has been convicted of sponsoring illegal activities on the shore. In another
instance, a private company was hired by the Puerto Rico  Highway and Transportation  Authority to
construct state road  686. The company  was informed about the importance of the coral  reef and the
measures necessary to minimize impacts but ignored them, which resulted in coral mortality. Because the
Elkhorn coral is a threatened species, an Endangered Species Act 4(d) rule was put in place in Vega Baja,
but the  rule  has  not been enforced.  There is a nearby landfill that  was supposed  to close and whose
administrator was involved in the extortion case against the convicted former mayor of Vega  Baja, but the
leachate from this landfill still is draining into the river, which in turn drains into the sea  and affects the
coral, local fish  population and consumers of these fish. Nutrient levels are very high in  the water near
Vega  Baja, and the water treatment plant does not cover the actual capacity of the municipio. A proposed
zoning  change near Manati  will allow hotel construction in the buffer zone of the Laguna Tortuguero
Natural  Reserve; VIDAS has publicly testified about the need to protect this area and demanded a signed
commitment  from the mayor of Manati to  oppose the zoning  change. This commitment  is important
because even in the  protected zone,  construction  disrupted a turtle nesting ground and destroyed many
turtle  eggs. Despite rules and orders from agencies, there  is no enforcement, even in protected zones. To
rectify this, it is necessary to  combine efforts; VIDAS is working with the scientific community and agency
members.

Mr. Laureano described low-tech conservation efforts, including  nursery units to develop coral fragments.
Cleaning and maintenance of coral nurseries is the main focus of coral farming projects.  Direct coral
planting is the fastest method of promoting  living reef coverage. VIDAS proposes to:  (1) develop an
ecofriendly runoff management plan that will function as a  model for other communities  with similar
issues, (2) formerly  designate the Los Jardines Submarine de  Vega  Baja-Manati Natural  Reserve  and
include  the communities in the development of the management plan, (3) develop an educational program
about sustainable use and respect of nature,  and (4) foster communities with ecotourism projects for the
cultural  benefits of Puerto Rico's coastal villages.

Discussion

Dr. Heberling held off discussion until after the final speaker of the morning.
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                      Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto Rico: A Scientific Discussion
Fostering Employment-Linked Training Opportunities in Coastal Research and Restoration as a Vehicle
for Change Toward Implementing Long-Term Ecologically Sustainable Behaviors: Case Studies From
Culebra Island, Puerto Rico
Mary Ann Lucking, CORALations

The PowerPoint  presentation can be  found in Appendix O.  Ms. Lucking explained the mission of
CORALations is  to conserve, nurture, and educate. In its efforts to conserve, CORALations is a coastal
clean water advocate and obtained a court ruling that requires EPA to upgrade Puerto Rico's water quality
standards and implement an antidegradation policy. CORALations' "watchdogs" chronic illegal and/or
unsustainable  coastal development and carries some of these  actions through the courts.  To nurture,
CORALations  has  been a Reef Ball™ artificial  reef systems  distributor since  1997  and engages in
community  coral farming and transplanting  with local scientists and the University of Puerto Rico. To
educate, the organization has established  an ocean studies classroom at Culebra's Eco-School to teach
visiting groups via an after-school program and summer camps.

Flamenco Beach on Culebra previously was used  by  the  U.S. military and North  Atlantic Treaty
Organization for  military target  practice and is littered with unexploded ordinance. Although cleanup is
underway, no bombs have been removed despite the $11 million that has been spent on the effort; this is a
result of poor management. The roads on Culebra are constructed with no planning and often are placed in
dry river beds. Illegal clearing occurs,  and  the reporting of such acts  often actually fosters them.  EPA
enforcement frequently is a  lengthy process; in one  situation, the violation was issued by  the Agency
9 months after its initial site visit, which allowed for significant deforestation during the delay. The Costa
Bonita  Resort was built  despite  local  opposition.  Although  Culebra  enjoys  possibly  the  strictest
environmental legal protections in the Caribbean, including protective low-density zoning laws and a civil
code  criminalizing  environmental harm, all  Agency oversight depends on  citizen reports, and the  most
meaningful actions by EPA depend on citizen suits. Citizens have been threatened after reporting. Although
the perception is that Culebrans are not aware of the importance of environmental conservation, this is not
true. The local commercial fishermen's association proposed a no-take reserve in the waters of Puerto Rico
in 1981. As  a result, the first no-take marine reserve in Puerto Rico was designated as such in 1999.

Current environmental education in Puerto Rico is undertaken apart from researchers and focuses on future
stakeholders;  however,  many  individuals  leave  the island,  so  the  education is lost.  In addition,
implementing  environmentally sustainable behavioral changes requires more than awareness, so a  new
approach that uses  economic incentives to  maximize limited resources and facilitate more  sustainable
behaviors is needed. CORALations has  initiated a case study that engages local  youth in a coral farming
and transplanting project by providing them with their dive certifications in exchange for work. Another
case study employs three  local youths in a fish  health study;  these  three jobs make  a great deal of
difference. To educate about erosion  control, the National  Oceanic  and Atmospheric  Administration
(NOAA)  has  committed $70,000 for  3 years to train local  heavy  equipment operators; however,
enforcement is needed to ensure the contractors use the BMPs they have learned.

CORALations has developed  a list of 14  recommendations:

    1.  Remove policy gaps to prevent lobbying of nondiscretionary duties of oversight between agencies
        in terms of land clearing.

    2.  Restore enforcement and meaningful  response time.

    3.  Maximize limited  financial, human, and  temporal resources  by making  local  employment a
        requirement in Requests for Proposals (RFPs).

    4.  Maximize limited financial, human, and temporal resources by relying on local scientists.


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                      Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto Rico: A Scientific Discussion
    5.  Use GIS aerial data to monitor coastal impacts, and provide these resources free to watchdogs.

    6.  Provide  ethics  seminars for employees so they understand the amount of money a violator
       possesses should not influence enforcement actions.

    7.  Abandon mitigation deals.

    8.  Appoint a district attorney who is educated in and devoted only to environmental crimes.

    9.  Abandon complex balanced fishery management legislation and work from the bottom up to create
       small marine-protected areas within local communities.

    10. Abandon top-down  approaches  (e.g.,  requiring  local  organizations to  partner  with large
       nongovernmental organization competitors).

    11. Implement "connected contractor" oversight so that RFP focus  is dictated by science rather than
       connected contractors.

    12. Listen to economists and social scientists to encourage behavioral changes.

    13. Reward fishermen when they "step up and do the right thing."

    14. Consider management alternatives in unexploded ordinance cleanup  for Vieques and Culebra and
       implement no-anchor zones as a safety measure.

Discussion

Dr.  Heberling  opened the  discussion for  questions  to  all three speakers:  Dr.  Hernandez-Delgado,
Mr. Laureano, and Ms. Lucking.

A participant commented that regulatory agencies cannot be  expected to perform ministerial duties.
Citizens  should sue perpetrators who violate environmental acts and  laws;  these  lawsuits hurt the
perpetrators financially. Ms. Lucking said that planning must  occur;  these suits happen after damage
already has occurred, so oversight must be a priority. Federal funding for coastal zone management should
be used for planning; Culebra has benefited from this approach. A participant added that a doctrine that he
learned in graduate school was that only strict oversight can control human behavior until an environmental
activist then came along  who  encouraged everyone to examine  institutional arrangements that may curb
human behavior and to look at others as  collaborators  rather than negatively. Top-down "command and
control" does not work.

Ms.  Lucking said that from a nonregulatory standpoint  it is challenging to deal with the government
because of the policy structure. Agencies can alter how the money is distributed by modifying RFPs so they
require local participation.

A participant asked what actions academicians could take. What is desired of stakeholders? Ms. Lucking
replied that multidisciplinary alliances and partnerships are beneficial. Dr. Hernandez-Delgado added that
working  with the people  in communities also  is desirable. For example, VIDAS educated  and  trained
locals, and now they can  act on their own. Sociologists and individuals from other disciplines are needed.
Regarding funding, some agencies  have  serious limitations. NOAA is limited to focusing  on specific
geographic areas, and those  of greater priority are ignored. Short-term vision is preventing the ability to
accomplish things.
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A participant provided a caution about partnerships, which can romanticize the role  of locals who have
jobs, families, church, and so forth as priorities. EPA personnel are paid; the locals are not. Ms. Lucking
said that a goal was to pay the locals as well (i.e., use funding to engage fisherman rather than print
brochures). Another participant said that what the locals accomplish already should not be overlooked. A
participant thought the funding issue was part of the command-and-control philosophy. Ms. Lucking noted
that matching nonfederal funds could be problematic. Those with funds may not be as effective as  the
community, which does not have funds. Mr. Laureano said that his group is submitting  numerous proposals
to obtain funding. Dr. Hernandez-Delgado stated there is a conflict of interest in terms of some RFPs in that
those administering the grants also are competing for them.

The Automated Remote Biodiversity Monitoring Network (ARBIMON)
T. Mitchell Aide, University of Puerto Rico, Rio Piedras

The PowerPoint presentation can be found in Appendix P. Dr.  Aide explained the research,  management,
and conservation communities need  better  long-term data for  fauna. Automated data collection is more
advantageous than typical data collection because real-time data  can be collected  across many sites 24
hours per day, 365 days per year. There is no observer bias,  and  a permanent, verifiable, open-access record
of the data is available. The automated portion of ARBIMON uses wireless Internet technology to collect
real-time images and sound. Its remote capability allows solar-powered data collection in areas that  are
difficult to access. The network provides frequent, long-term information about diverse bird, amphibian,
insect, bat, fish, and marine animal species. ARBIMON is user-driven, global and utilizes cloud computing.
Images and sounds the microphones and cameras record in the field are accessed in real-time via a website,
and machine learning allows for automated species identification. Currently, the website offers more than 1
million recordings.

The current permanent stations are located in El Verde, Puerto  Rico; Sabana Seca, Puerto Rico; La Selva,
Costa Rica; and Hawaii. The Sabana Seca site was chosen because previously unknown coqui species were
identified in the area. Portable, iPod touch-based recorders  can  be placed in temporary sites and their data
uploaded to the laboratory. The heart of the system is the dynamic website that is open to everyone. The
system also includes web-based visualization software and tools, and an algorithm  is capable of identifying
regions  of interest. The information is  used to create  species-specific models for species  detection,
identification, and  monitoring. The  researchers  also have  used  the system to analyze the effects  of
anthropogenic noise on Anuran and bird  communities in Puerto Rico, finding that high road noise has a
negative  effect on bird diversity.  In  addition, the bird  songs were found to overlap  with low-frequency
traffic noise.  Another advantage of the network is the ability to monitor rare species, such as the Costa
Rican tink frog and the Puerto Rican  crested toad.  A traditional census generally produces 26 observations
of the tink frog per year, whereas ARBIMON recorded 10,605 observations. This  allows  researchers to
reduce field technician travel expenses by facilitating targeted travel. The goal is to expand ARBIMON to
many sites across Puerto Rico.

Discussion

Dr. Hopton observed the equipment must  have some bias and asked whether it could be corrected by
ground-truthing by field personnel. Dr. Aide stated that field biologists never would be eliminated. Bias is
reduced because the data collected by multiple investigators may not be comparable.

A participant asked whether the researchers were concerned about safety  issues  and the integrity of the
equipment. Dr. Aide conceded the permanent stations have solar  panels that attract human visitors. The
iPod Touches are buried underground to reduce theft; every one that was placed in the field was recovered
1 year later.
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A participant asked about equipment cost and the image data. Dr. Aide explained the cameras send images
in real-time via the Internet, which allows the information to be more useful. Most of the cost comes from
personnel. The portable stations cost approximately $500 to $600, and the permanent stations cost $4,000
to $5,000.

A participant asked whether there were any problems with automated species identification in noise-rich
environments. Dr.  Aide responded that one site in Brazil was home to more than 300 birds and there were
12 to  15  different calls per minute; this  was challenging.  The sites in Puerto Rico have not been  a
challenge. Additionally, the algorithms can be improved to improve species identification.

A participant  asked whether call  frequency was found to be correlated with  species density. Dr. Aide
replied that this analysis had not  been carried out but could be  performed in the future.  Currently, the
researchers are examining presence and absence data, but they are interested in converting it to abundance
data.

The Distribution of Pollution and Environmental Justice in Puerto Rico: A Quantitative Analysis
Shanshan Wu, EPA, ORD, NRMRL

This PowerPoint presentation can be found in Appendix Q. Dr. Wu explained that this study attempted to
understand environmental inequalities and health in Puerto Rico, examining  two related issues—pollution
distribution and  environmental justice. To measure pollution  distribution,  the  researchers  used an
environmental Gini coefficient, which is  an  inequality measure used mostly for  income distribution.
According  to  environmental justice literature, pollution is related to socioeconomic and demographic
indicators.  Regression analysis  was used to investigate the relationship. EPA's Toxic Releases Inventory
(TRI) provided data for the study, and the researchers examined releases into all media, particularly air,
from 2000 to 2008; this timeframe allowed the use of a stable data set. The municipio was the spatial unit;
release data are available for 50 municipios. The results indicated that releases to all media and to air have
significantly decreased over time.

The  next step was to investigate distribution  of releases  to determine  whether different  municipios
experience the same amount of releases. An environmental Gini coefficient can quantify the distribution of
toxic releases. Gini is bounded  within the interval (0, 1);  zero indicates perfect equality, and one indicates
perfect inequality.  The calculation of this coefficient indicated that it increased slightly for air and all media
releases and  that  releases are unequally  distributed across  municipios  in Puerto  Rico.  This unequal
distribution of releases implies that people in different  municipios may be suffering different levels of
releases, which contradicts the principle  of environmental  justice. Therefore, the next step  was to
investigate environmental justice in Puerto Rico.

According to EPA, environmental justice is achieved when everyone enjoys the same degree of protection
from environmental hazards. Based on environmental justice literature,  the researchers  selected several
socioeconomic and demographic  indicators (race,  population density, poverty, education, housing rental
status,  age, unemployment, and car ownership) that may be related to releases. A quantile regression
approach was used to estimate the  regression model,  and because this is  not commonly  applied in
environmental economics, ordinary least squares and Tobit approaches also were used. Results indicated
the  strongest relationship was  between indicators and all-media releases in municipios with  the fewest
releases (lowest quintile) and most releases (highest quintile). Poverty level had no strong relationship  with
releases, and education had strong relationships with releases; municipios with a high percentage of poorly
educated individuals were more likely to experience releases. An interesting finding that needs more study
is the  percentage  of renter-occupied housing was  negatively related to releases in the  most polluted
municipios. In terms of air releases, the relationship between indicators and releases was similar; however,
poverty was  a significant estimate in the most-released municipios. Income  variables  were used  in  a
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                      Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto Rico: A Scientific Discussion
sensitivity analysis, and results indicated that income differentials were not strongly related to releases in
Puerto Rico.

Dr. Wu summarized the large estimates of the environmental Gini coefficient imply that toxic releases are
unequally distributed in Puerto Rico, but inequality did not increase between 2000 and 2008. Indicators of
nonwhite population, population density, education, age, unemployment and car ownership have clear and
significant relationships with toxic releases. To policy makers, a focus on education and unemployment is
important because both indicators are clearly and strongly related to toxic releases.

Discussion

In response to a question from a participant, Dr. Wu explained that TRI is  a  data inventory that was
developed and has been used by EPA since 1988. Facilities are required to file their release information
with the Agency annually. A participant from the EQB added the EQB cooperates with EPA in this regard,
requiring all municipios to report their release information.

In response to a comment from a participant, Dr. Wu noted the coefficient of determination value was large
enough to perform the regression analysis.

A participant asked how releases in Puerto Rico sites compared to U.S. sites per capita. Dr. Wu responded
that this comparison had not been performed; comparative analysis is planned for the future.

A participant asked whether the reason for the decrease in releases occurred because of plant closings or
because plants were taking environmentally protective measures. Dr. Wu said that TRI data affect the share
price of companies  on the stock market, so there is a financial incentive to reduce releases. A participant
said that in the 1990s, the major polluters were the pharmaceutical companies;  now the largest polluter in
Puerto Rico  is the government.  He would be  interested  in examining individual  polluters, including
pharmaceutical companies and electricity producers. Another participant noted that different data could be
reported over time.

A participant asked about the inclusion of Asian as a race in the study. Dr. Wu  responded that she had not
completed a summary of Asians living in Puerto Rico.

Comprehensive Disaster Reduction: A Social Vulnerability Index for Puerto Rico
Jenniffer M. Santos-Hernandez, University of Delaware

This PowerPoint presentation can be found in Appendix R. Ms. Santos-Hernandez explained that Puerto
Rico's topography, climate and geographic location make extreme weather events  very probable. Changing
weather patterns have  been observed, and  weather events often have led to disasters. Demographic and
economic research shows the development policies implemented in Puerto Rico have not or only partially
succeeded.  The  industrial sector has declined, and it is argued that  Puerto Rico has transitioned  into a
service economy. Employment opportunities in the emerging sector are different and often less profitable
than previously. To absorb the increasing unemployment, the public  sector became the largest employer.
Additionally, Puerto Rico has been a laboratory for many social policies, and many benefits and problems
have been the result.

Inadequate  planning and zoning have led  to a large  increase in the  number  of persons living in areas
susceptible to  storm surge, tsunami, and flooding. Governmental policy also has contributed to  increasing
physical vulnerability  by  allowing high-rise  construction projects along coastal areas  and by locating
critical infrastructure in known at-risk areas. It is important to study development because  it often leads to
vulnerability. Disasters are social processes, and framing vulnerability as an issue of capital accumulation
affords an opportunity to understand the differential impact and consequences of disasters. Comprehensive
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vulnerability management can be defined as "holistic integrated activities directed toward the reduction of
emergencies and disasters by diminishing risk and susceptibility and building of resistance and resilience."
The challenge of creating a vulnerability index is that it is a static view of a population and is limited in its
ability to monitor changes. It is difficult to determine what is occurring from a social aspect; it is necessary
to examine each community to determine the root of the problem.

Ms. Santos-Hernandez's graduate work examined social vulnerability to coastal hazards; the accumulation
of disadvantage was used to develop a social  vulnerability score. Results  indicated that although  the
population residing in exposed areas increased from 1990 to 2000, there  has been an observed  decline in
most vulnerability indicators. This finding may  raise questions about the use of demographic  indicators
only to assess social vulnerability. High vulnerability is characteristic of deindustrialized areas, and there is
a  need to  develop emergency preparedness and response  plans that address the  needs of a changing
population with relatively high levels of vulnerability. It also is necessary to prepare proactively to meet the
needs of those with disabilities and an increasingly older population residing in areas exposed to hazards.
Despite the  decline in  vulnerability  indicators  (e.g., poverty,  low education), they  remain quite high,
particularly in comparison to the United States. The  researchers  developed a Disaster Decision Support
Tool with various layers that are of use to emergency managers, who were trained  to use these data in a
useful manner.

Ms. Santos-Hernandez's current doctoral work focuses  on how  the governance of  disasters  and
emergencies is shared in Puerto Rico, and she has completed in-depth interviews with emergency managers
and National Weather Service personnel. The research highlights important differences in terms of the role
of emergency managers, levels of training, access, preferences and use of information sources compared to
the organizational features of the Agenda Estatal Para  el Manejo  de Emergencias (State  Agency  for
Emergency and Disaster Management). Preliminary findings indicate that shared conventions, expectations,
and cultural concerns are brought to bear when making decisions; the culture of Puerto Rico mediates how
the agencies work. Upper-level managers are concerned about job security of their employees because there
often is a cycle of increased hiring preceding an  election and firing following  an election. The researchers
are focusing on case  studies  of the municipios  of  Dorado and  Catano  to  understand  how social
vulnerabilities play out  in communities, in  addition to examining the evolution of risks in Catano and the
role of the  municipio in  Puerto Rico's development. Preliminary findings indicate a variety of themes (e.g.,
changes in transportation, land use, energy, soil;  drugs and violence; community resistance to government
intervention), and there are conflicts  among community organizations on various issues. The Caribbean
Petroleum Corporation explosion in Catano illustrates the pre-existing vulnerability in the region.

Ms. Santos- Hernandez  reiterated that her research suggests the need  to develop emergency preparedness
and response  plans that attend the  needs of  a changing population  with  relatively high  levels of
vulnerability. The majority of disaster scholars, however, are not expert in bringing about massive cultural
change. It is necessary to prepare to meet the needs of the elderly and those with disabilities and to develop
and implement programs that increase awareness and mitigation of hazards that more frequently affect
communities. Finally, there is a need to review emergency management and disaster  policies to better
prepare for such events.

Discussion

Dr. Heberling invited discussion for all three speakers: Drs. Aide and Wu and Ms. Santos-Hernandez.

A participant asked Dr. Wu whether EPA considers all  communities in Puerto Rico  as  environmental
justice communities. Dr. Wu responded the research was performed  across the entire island, and she is
unsure how to define an environmental justice community. Dr. Heberling added that this was completely
outside the scope of the research and the role  of ORD. The Region 2 Environmental Justice Coordinator
would be able to answer that question.


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A participant asked  how a stakeholder could  access  TRI  data (e.g., National Pollutant  Discharge
Elimination System [NPDES] permitting violations). Dr. Wu explained that TRI data are publicly available
on the TRI website. A participant from the EQB explained the EQB did not have jurisdiction over NPDES.
A participant asked whether water quality data for Puerto Rico are available online. Dr. Wu said that TRI
data on water releases are available.

A participant stated that President Clinton had signed a bill regarding the monitoring of coastal waters with
recreational use. The EQB was provided with $300,000 to monitor the coasts, but he  has been unable to
determine how the  funds are being  used. The participant from the EQB said that public notice had been
given on the matter; 19 beaches are  monitored on a continuous basis, and the rest are monitored every 1 to
2 weeks.

Facilitated Session—Feedback From Participants

Dr. Hopton remarked there is a need for the scientific community to determine how to affect decision-
making  so  that decisions are made based on sound science rather than on financial incentives or lobbying.
Puerto Rico decision-makers are interested in this type of decision-making, and it is  necessary to begin
collaboration between researchers and decision-makers to ensure that  sustainability research is useful for
decision-making and, if it is not, how it can be made useful. He explained that ORD has clients; anyone can
contact the office for assistance. Although EPA is regulatory, ORD is not. The sustainability work in the
SLB led the Puerto Rico  government and Region 2 to contact the research team to  discuss its metrics
research. The governor's office  appointed a contact person so that Puerto Rico agencies remain involved in
the research, and the governor of Puerto Rico sent EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson a letter thanking her for
EPA research in Puerto Rico. Dr. Hopton reiterated the Puerto Rico government has expressed interest in
using sustainability research in its decision-making. Finally, it is necessary to address problems at a smaller
scale to  effect global change. ORD would like to provide communities  with the tools to do so, recognizing
there are trade-offs (e.g., Puerto Rico may benefit even if a specific community does not).

A participant noted there is a clear lack of knowledge about what research academicians in Puerto Rico are
performing. What has ORD staff learned during the past 2 days? Dr. Hopton thought that a lesson learned
was that it  is necessary for all stakeholders and researchers to reach out to work with others. Because ORD
researchers do not have access to the Spanish literature,  utilizing those who do would broaden the available
expertise for inclusion in the effort.

A participant  asked what information presented during the symposium ORD staff members had found
relevant  for their research. Dr. Hopton  replied that all  of the presentations and discussions  had been
relevant. ORD researchers have expertise with four metrics. These four metrics capture sustainability, but
are they useful? Is this information that Puerto Rico cares  about? Metrics provide a snapshot of the system.
It is beneficial to examine the general system, but issues important to the island must be  monitored and
quantified.  ORD ecologists, lawyers, economists and so forth can focus on Puerto Rico, but they do not
have local expertise. The goal is for  ORD metrics research in Puerto Rico to be as inclusive as possible and
focus on important island issues.

A participant stated there  are different methods to achieve sustainability (e.g., habitat, water) and asked
whether ORD staff members have a template for sustainability strategies. Dr. Hopton replied they had not
developed  such a template because  Puerto Rico stakeholders must be  included in identifying the island's
important issues for concern. One single project will not  satisfy all of the issues.  Dr. Heberling  asked the
participants whether they had developed a strategy for sustainability. ORD brought metrics and now would
like to know what Puerto Rico finds useful and what the Puerto Rico researchers think is a good template.
A participant thought there were so many possible frameworks that sustainability might be  unobtainable
under a strict timeline.
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Dr. Hopton commented that sometimes it is necessary to identify just one or a few important issues for a
system; as a group, the participants could reach a consensus on these items. Once there is a general idea of
where Puerto Rico wants to go, then the researchers can determine how to get there. Sustainability is a
moving target as a result of changes in technology, population, demand for resources and so forth; it is
necessary to adapt and change with the system.

A participant stated  that, according  to the literature, energy is  a key component of Sustainability at all
levels. A philosophy for Puerto Rico's sustainable energy future must be developed, and a serious strategy
regarding energy and vulnerability must be established.

A participant remarked that pollution is a significant issue, and if the island relies on nonrenewable sources
of energy, Puerto  Rico  never will be a sustainable society. A participant  said that recognition that a true
shared governance process must exist is needed; another participant strongly agreed. This process must
include full accountability, transparency and a genuine desire for true participation. Another participant
noted that human behavior must be studied in addition to the natural sciences and technology. If the wrong
practices are in place, Puerto Rico never will reach Sustainability. Research in all areas is needed to ensure
that this does not happen.

Dr. Hopton wondered whether the steps of the process should be completed simultaneously or in an ordered
fashion. A participant thought they needed  to be concurrent because they feed into each other. Another
participant said the process needs a facilitator. Dr. Hopton stated that ORD recognizes this need, and the
staff members hoped their Puerto Rico colleagues could provide a facilitator.

A participant stated that Sustainability is not decided independently. There is a process that needs to include
everyone and possess  a  good flow  of information. Every  energy source has  environmental  impacts;
decisions must include knowledge about the choices and the  pros and cons of each  choice. Although
different stakeholders have different  interests,  it is necessary to  reach a consensus. A great deal  of
information in the natural sciences, particularly marine science, already exists, but the social and political
landscape must be included as drivers. Behavior, which is variable and has many effects, must be included
in the Sustainability indicators. The social component of Sustainability must be included.

A participant said that researchers have been compiling information, but what do they want to  achieve?
Goals and policy must be determined because that will determine the possible scenarios. Is the current plan
to replace manufacturing on the  island with tourism sustainable? This plan will affect coastal resilience. It
is necessary to establish a baseline of current  conditions and then monitor changes. A shared vision of
future directions is needed, and stakeholders must be included in developing this vision.

A participant remarked that Sustainability is a scenario. It is necessary to include multiple disciplines so
there  is common information and knowledge; each discipline manages different types of information, so
compiling all of this information would be beneficial to create a different dynamic.  It would be helpful to
determine how trends (e.g., oil  imports, murder, deforestation) have changed during the past 10 years.
Trends are incredibly valuable so that everyone has common information. A document including graphs of
the 100 most important  variables would be beneficial so that trends during the past 10 to 20 years could be
examined. A participant said the Federal Emergency Management Agency performed a hazardous risk
communication study in Culebra that measured 16 parameters (e.g.,  land use, high risk areas) and released
the results as a GIS map overlay.

A participant noted  there are  many opinions in Puerto Rico; the federal government, however, can be
objective, and that objectivity is  needed. There are data that all agree are valid, but objectivity in assessing
these data still would be helpful. Dr. Hopton remarked that participants had mentioned  several times that
more data are not needed; however, data are needed for decision-making, and the current data will be
questioned in terms of quality. The four metrics that ORD selected are data intensive; three are infinite in
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                      Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto Rico: A Scientific Discussion
their data needs. As much data as possible is needed because not all data are at the appropriate spatial scale.
How are data obtained?  If the data have been collected, why are they difficult to obtain? Data collected
with public funds need to be available, so it is necessary to determine where data can be found. Another
data topic  is generalizability. The United  States aggregates the local data that it collects to  obtain a
generalizable average, but different portions  of the population will behave differently.

A participant suggested that Puerto Rico graduate students could collect data; this would allow collection of
data while training new scientists. Another participant said that before data are compiled, it is necessary to
determine what research others  are performing. The benefit of this symposium is the ability to network.
How can the data be compiled if others do not know data exist? ORD should become a "bulletin board" for
Puerto Rico to publicize data that feed into the measures  of sustainability. Dr. Hopton thought the data
should be kept  locally. Although  the University of Puerto Rico is a government entity,  it is perceived
differently than a government agency, so this could be one option for a data repository. A participant said
that EPA initiated this effort and is interested and asked why it could not provide an outlet for the data and
information created  daily.  A common repository for Puerto Rico sustainability data is needed. Another
participant thought that it was a good idea to have a common repository for data but had strong reservations
about sharing data through the ORD website because it becomes the property  of the federal government.
Dr. Hopton suggested that it was better to find a local repository because  ORD's Puerto Rico project may
not have funding in 2013 or future years.

A participant remarked that collaboration could hinder the collection of data. Is it better to have more data
or better to have the  best variables? Dr. Hopton asked what variables are needed. Inexpensive, simple, and
less-precise data may be  more beneficial than expensive, more-accurate data. A participant said that most
of the variables are supposed to be collected by the government. Establishing  a database/platform within
the local governments to share and collect data may be  a better approach.  Another participant noted that a
good deal of geophysical and chemical research has been compiled, and more than 150 peer-reviewed
papers are available.

A participant thought the group  was discussing two different issues. As a  group, it is necessary to address
the issues in an orderly manner. Another participant said that it was necessary to  develop a blueprint  for
sustainability to ensure the research in Puerto Rico is useful to establish a baseline. The system will change
(e.g., elections), and  many variables (e.g., gasification, landfills) must be taken into account. It is beneficial
to collaborate to discuss  expectations. A participant did not think that it mattered where the platform was
established; the many  data at different levels cannot be integrated.  Another participant said that if  the
repository is placed at the federal level, it could be used as a national security tool.

A participant noted the driver of any political system is participation. Another participant commented that
decision-making in Puerto Rico is dominated by a certain group; the public never is consulted about its
vision for Puerto Rico. The citizens benefit from science, particularly when it is used for decision-making.
A participant stated that some entities with funding to collect data influence the results. Researchers are not
trained with the political process in mind nor how to broker information for decision-makers. There  are
"honest brokers" and "entrepreneurs." How  can scientists become more entrepreneurial when making their
research more policy relevant?  Researchers have not studied methods to organize themselves to  better
move research through the policy process. Scientists can examine behavior and  determine how to be better
entrepreneurs of their data in certain situations, even though this goes against their training.

A participant remembered the first time that he heard the term "sustainability" in 1975; the word invokes
freedom and democracy.  It must  be framed in terms of both.

A participant thought that usability must include a scale of action, and planning implies scales of action. It
is necessary to identify what data are  available on what scales  so that data can be organized and better
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                      Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto Rico: A Scientific Discussion
utilized. How can a project be funded to achieve sustainable goals? Short-, medium- and long-term goals
are needed. Deciding how and when to act is a temporal issue.

A participant noted that because of the Autonomous Municipalities of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico
Act, the government does not have power over municipios; therefore, it is difficult to institute goals.

Dr. Hopton reiterated that it is necessary to find a balance within the overlap among the three pillars; there
must be environmental, economic, and social benefits while recognizing there will be trade-offs. Once the
benefits have been demonstrated, others will buy in. It is necessary to ensure that decision-makers have the
tools they need from a scientific perspective.

A participant asked for clarification that EPA is seeking from this group "a" vision for sustainability in
Puerto Rico rather than "the" vision. Dr.  Hopton agreed that  this is a starting point. One lesson learned
during the symposium is that inclusion and representation must be increased. ORD scientists needed to
choose a place to begin,  so those researchers found through a  literature search were invited to participate.
The expectation was the symposium would initiate a dialogue so that researchers could provide input about
what actions need to be taken to ensure a sustainable Puerto Rico. The goal was for the decision-makers to
be present for the discussion  so they could indicate why they  are not using the data the researchers make
available. In turn, the researchers could incorporate this  information into their research plan and improve
their research so that it is used for decision-making.

A participant stated that it was difficult to  develop a list of actions to promote sustainability in Puerto Rico
following 2 days  of presentations. Another participant asked about ORD vision of outputs. His vision is to
change the mindset of individuals. Achieving a new state of consciousness regarding sustainability would
be a great contribution to sustainability in Puerto Rico.

Dr. Hopton explained that ORD had invited the heads of every Puerto  Rico agency. Local researchers also
were  invited because  the office wanted  to reach out  to the wider scientific community  working on
sustainability in Puerto Rico to collaborate; the ORD researchers recognized they do not have the toolset to
help Puerto  Rico best. The goal was to  bring everyone together to determine what collaborations and
actions are needed to move the island toward a path of  sustainability. The collaborators could develop a
research plan and work together with the common goal of improving the system. A participant said that if
this was the  goal, the format of the meeting  should have been a roundtable discussion rather than  a
workshop. Dr. Hopton replied  the original intention was to have breakout sessions, working groups,  a
budget, more staff and a facilitator,  but unforeseen  circumstances forced a decision between the current
format and canceling the effort completely. The ORD staff is comprised of three members trying to reach
out to the local community to obtain the expertise and knowledge to be a success.  This staff will continue
to attempt to initiate a dialogue with decision-makers and discuss the conversations and presentations at
this meeting.

A participant said that  visions would be different for different  individuals. Working at the local level may
be feasible, but scaling the effort up to the island level may be difficult. Another participant thought the
main  issue was that Puerto Rico has many scientists who  can provide expert advice,  but the decision-
makers do not care to hear it.  The question is how to allow scientists to provide data to decision-makers and
the public so that it is understandable and can be used to  provide a vision of sustainability for Puerto Rico.
This vision must  be based on scientific information and  not on a top-down approach. A participant noted
that sustainability initiatives foster job growth, so the economic benefits will resonate with decision-makers
and the public.

A participant noted that it is important to communicate to the decision-makers there is economic benefit in
"doing the right  thing."  The media should be aware of this  discussion to further incentivize decision-
makers; a reporter from  Caribbean Business should have been invited. A participant thought that it was


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important the data are publicly available so the public can make a decision and pursue action from their
policy-makers. A participant explained that part of "Policy Analysis 101" is that politicians do not go to the
public unless they know the outcome. It is necessary to know in advance, what is desired of the decision-
makers and then make them accountable. Dr. Hopton explained that decision-makers have told EPA that if
ORD provides the tools, they will use them. The researchers must develop these tools. Many countries have
realized the importance of sustainability and are incorporating it into their plans; these can be models for
decision-makers in Puerto Rico. It is important to be inclusive  and work with the  decision-makers to
develop tools for sustainable decisions.

A participant stated there are contacts who can tell whether government data is of good or poor quality; it is
necessary to evaluate  the data,  compare data from different sources, and use  this information to make
decisions. Key people need to receive these data. What  entity should collect it? A task force should be
established to explore  sustainable choices; some visions are not sustainable. Instead of business as usual,
sustainable alternatives must be sought and implemented.

A participant said that development has been highlighted in the media. The current development model
must be reconceptualized. If the sustainable vision is aligned with items in the current agenda, then the
resulting actions can be undertaken quickly and easily. The first three objectives should be given to the task
force with a deadline.

Dr. Hopton said that ORD researchers would like to develop a collaborative research project with sustain-
ability experts and tailor it so that decision-makers can use it to improve the future of Puerto Rico. The
collaboration would  use government funds to reach out to academia and NGOs, taking into account what
the decision-makers need. Dr.  Heberling added the  metrics have been presented to the  Puerto  Rico
government, but metrics cannot be used as goals.

A participant noted  the first tenet of sustainability is the community and the public must be engaged.
Another participant agreed with the creation of a task force to move forward with the sustainability effort.
There needs to be a commitment from this group to  continue compiling information and promoting the
sustainability effort. It would be beneficial to create a  document that expresses the needs (i.e., What
knowledge is needed to move forward?). A participant thought that  it  was  important to summarize the
recommendations  from the  presenters at this symposium and present  them to the decision-makers. A
participant remarked that decision-makers are fluid entities.

Dr. Hopton asked whether the first duty of the  task force should be  to meet regularly. The participants
agreed that regular meetings of the task force were important. A participant thought the task force should
be comprised of sustainability researchers. The heads  of the universities were suggested as stakeholders
who should be included, but another participant thought their main concern would be the capacity building
of students rather than  sustainability.

Dr. Hopton said that if the task force presents accomplishments, even small  ones, the effort will be seen as
positive, and it will grow. The government must agree that sustainability is important, and then a vision can
be formulated.  A participant thought that indicators of attitude, knowledge, and self-reported behaviors
were needed. Another  participant said that it was necessary to engage  the decision-makers so they did not
just "listen and smile." A participant noted the decision-makers of today might not be the decision-makers
of tomorrow. All  parties should be approached, and  the task force  should transcend parties  so that it
continues no matter which party  is in office. If the task force is seen as something belonging to the current
government, it may be discarded when there is a new government. Dr.  Hopton agreed and said the original
goal was to have accomplishments established by the time of the election so that it would be a large enough
effort to guarantee that it would  go forward  during the  next administration. A participant noted there must
be wider dissemination of information to encourage adoption of sustainability practices; if all six of the
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political parties include Sustainability in their platforms, the effort will have a basis for continuing. Another
participant agreed that a release of information could change government efforts.

A participant reiterated the need for an official clearinghouse for data and information. Data must undergo
quality assurance/quality control (QA/QC), and researchers and decision-makers must be careful regarding
the comparability of data. Dr. Hopton said that ORD could provide its data to those who request it. It is
available on EPA's Environmental Science Connector, which requires registration with the Agency before
it can be accessed.

Day 2 Wrap-Up

Dr. Hopton highlighted the plan for the following day and recessed the meeting at 6:46 p.m.

JUNE 7,2012

Discussion Regarding Lessons Learned, Identification of Target Questions for Decision-Makers and
Plans for a Coordinated Research Agenda

Dr. Hopton  called the  meeting to  order at 9:51  a.m. He explained the  original  goal  for the day was to
include discussion with decision-makers. With those present, the new goal was to develop a document that
will compel decision-makers to acknowledge the problem of unsustainable development on Puerto Rico
and that  it needs to be addressed in an inclusive manner; they must take action to make  Puerto Rico
sustainable.  The objectives remained the same as described on Day 1,  except a new goal was added to
initiate a dialogue between researchers working on the Puerto Rico system, recognizing that ORD needs to
include experts on Puerto Rico.

The lessons learned from the symposium are as follows:

       Scientists have different visions, perspectives, research, and information regarding Sustainability in
       Puerto Rico.

    •  It is  recognized that data are missing, and there is a need to emphasize critical data gaps.

       Data need to be centralized, categorized in terms of quality, and made more readily available.

    •  Representation must be increased to ensure that all interested parties have a voice.

    •  Based on participation, Sustainability research is well established in Puerto Rico; only a very small
       subset was represented at the symposium.

    •  Communication about Sustainability research in Puerto Rico, on and off the island, is lacking.

    •  A cohesive collaborative effort in the Sustainability community is lacking.

       There are many frameworks for studying  Sustainability, but which one(s) is the  right one for Puerto
       Rico?

       The social science perspective on Sustainability in Puerto Rico is lacking.

       Participants think that Puerto Rico needs a clear vision of Sustainability for the long term. It is
       necessary to determine the current state of Sustainability on the  island and then decide the future
       direction.
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    •    Opportunities for data sharing and collaboration became obvious during the symposium.

        The symposium created a missing forum for scientific discussion.

        Organized discussions among scientists need to continue.

    •    This symposium/workshop is a first step, rather than a final answer.

        Scientists need to translate information to make it accessible to everyone (e.g., policy-makers, other
        disciplines, the public, communities).

    •    ORD's research will provide a tool to show whether Puerto Rico is moving toward or away from
        sustainability. Given the limitations and decision-maker needs, research  opportunities need to be
        identified to enhance decision-making.

The messages to decision-makers identified during the workshop are as follows:

        It is necessary to establish a vision for Puerto Rico with associated goals. What does  Puerto Rico
        want to achieve? Can scenarios reveal how to accomplish this?  Goals must include  social, eco-
        nomic, and environmental aspects.

        The approach instituted must be from the bottom up; everyone needs to participate.

    •    Data issues need to be addressed (e.g.,  QA/QC to ensure that available data  are of the highest
        quality).

        Collaborative efforts, partnerships and alliances are needed to leverage  dwindling  resources and
        enhance the  knowledge base. A  transdisciplinary approach must be  employed  that  includes
        nonacademics, nonresearchers, decision-makers and the public,  in addition to multidisciplinary
        researchers. There are existing opportunities that can be explored.

    •    The research community must be better organized.

        Sustainability must be addressed with  short-, medium- and long-term goals.

    •    Commitment is needed at all levels of government.

The recommendation and request to decision-makers resulting from the lessons learned  and  the developed
messages is that a task force be formed to address the issues related to sustainability in Puerto Rico. The
task force can be operated at the municipio or island level. Dr. Hopton opened the discussion at this point.

A participant thought that in terms of the research community being better organized, researchers are
organized but perhaps not in the most effective manner. It may be necessary to change this statement to,
"The research community must change the way in which it is organized." Currently, it  is  too  fragmented,
and consensus is needed.

A participant remarked that a hierarchy of ideas is needed. Several items are being discussed: Is Puerto
Rico on a sustainable path? What components are needed to get the island to sustainability? Will this effort
be  based on a research agenda for sustainability? If so,  education is the first step;  everyone  must be
educated before beginning to develop a strategy. Research and education can be linked.

The participants discussed the fact the University of Puerto Rico at Rio Piedras has established the Center
for Renewable  Energy and  Sustainability with  support  from the  U.S. Departments of Defense and
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Education. The campus also has a sustainability initiative. The campus at Mayagiiez has a sustainability
component as well. Education and capacity building allows decision-makers to see the vision; there must
be research and political thrusts. Another participant noted that she has proposed a new class on her campus
that  focuses  on the will  toward sustainability. A participant commented that many  actions regarding
sustainability  occur on the island  in addition to  those  at the universities.  What  is  the  message that
researchers  want  to  convey  to  the  decision-makers?  The  message must  include  clarity  about  the
components:  education, research and others.  Sustainability is broader  than setting indicators for the
government; it is about people making better, educated, informed choices.

A participant noted the need to establish achievable goals; the capacity to educate  the public is limited. It
may be more beneficial for the group to focus on research. Another participant commented the pillars of
sustainability tie all of these components together. The components are about  the environment, economy,
and society and help people to understand where they are coming from and where they want to go.

A participant said that it would be  helpful to examine countries that already  are following a sustainable
pathway. In addition, political will is needed to reach sustainability goals and deadlines.  Funding also is
needed because the research agenda is dictated by available funding. Priorities also drive the research
agenda, and it is necessary to align sustainability with government priorities. Many scattered issues impact
decision-making and, therefore, sustainability.

A participant thought that perhaps an academic model  should not be followed. Subdividing the issues into
thrusts, as was proposed earlier, is an excellent idea to organize scattered issues. Best practices also must be
investigated. The participant reiterated the need for education, research, and capacity building.

A participant had a different point of view and did not see research as a pillar.  The effort must be science-
and data-based. A decision already has been made that this is of value. The process, models and changes
cannot be compared and contrasted without scientific evidence. Target audiences that need to be reached
for education or to start facilitating behavioral changes may not see the same value.

A participant remarked that sustainability deals  with social  and  economic issues in  addition to  the
environment. Sustainability is based on conflict. Puerto  Rico has  many problems  with  population loss
resulting from increased unemployment and crime rates. These issues need to be addressed via research so
the resulting information can be used to confront the problems. There are other aspects of sustainability that
must be included  in  the discussion (e.g.,  loss  of  farmland, drug addiction,  crime,  lack  of public
transportation, the number of cars on the island, unemployment). Social issues affect the  capacity of Puerto
Rico to hold its population. The sustainability discussion must be expanded to include a transdisciplinary
approach with a focus on  social issues. Another participant agreed the legacy of social sustainability tends
to be less prominent in the sustainability literature.  There is a recognized need to focus  on social research
so that it is brought on par with research in the natural sciences. Dr. Hopton said that ORD recognized the
need to include social science in its research.  Dr.  Heberling added that  ORD is  attempting to integrate
social science into its research while recognizing EPA's mission. The researchers realized  that it was only
weakly included in the Puerto Rico research and recognized that it needed to be  integrated belter.

A participant commented that pollution is a problem  across the  globe and not  just in Puerto Rico.
Everything is interconnected, and it  is necessary to understand why building occurs  in the manner that it
does to understand its effects on the environment and social issues. Another participant agreed the vision of
sustainability must include research within environmental, economic, and  social parameters. Additionally,
the research goals must include useful information for all stakeholders. Another participant remarked on the
need for decision-makers to follow the plan for sustainability, which must be based on research. Dr. Hopton
summarized the government must state that it has a clear goal that it wants to  achieve and then institute a
mechanism to achieve its  vision and goals that includes researchers, NGOs and stakeholders. The goal is
for the effort to become self-sustaining and adapt as the system changes, which is inevitable.


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A participant noted that no one has developed a specific strategy for sustainability in Puerto Rico. NOAA
and the Nature Conservancy have been providing instruction to the Puerto Rico Department of Natural
Resources and the  Environment. Local and island managers need to work in a manner consistent with
Puerto Rico culture but are forced to follow NOAA's agenda.

A participant  remarked on the need for a baseline. For example, increased tourism creates  a  different
scenario for the island. Current groups are working in a fragmented manner, with each having  its own
agenda. It is necessary to  prioritize actions  for funding.  If decision-makers do not  consider all of the
information, then important sectors may not be funded. Decisions irreversibly affect coastal regions when
they are not prioritized. Dr. Heberling noted the task force members would bring their own agendas; it is
not up to the workshop participants to determine the action items for the task force. Much more discussion
is needed.

In response to a question from a participant, Dr. Heberling said that it was up to the task force to determine
the  role of researchers. A participant  added creating a task force will help build policies to  advance
research. The task force will be instrumental in accomplishing these tasks.

A participant said that decisions should be made based on the scientific information available. The science
will be proven in future extreme events that scientists have been warning about;  as more stakeholders
engage in the process, the political will to deal with these issues will increase. A participant noted the task
force will be a policy instrument of the governor and is needed to move toward a vision  of sustainability for
Puerto Rico. Research must be a component of this instrument.

A participant suggested a sustainability website and white paper as tools to increase information exchange.
Sustainability  is complex and requires the engagement of  communities,  experts and various sectors  to
develop a sustainability vision that will be adopted by policy-making bodies. Another participant thought
the  website and/or white paper should include available graphics of indicators overtime. Puerto Ricans are
visual people,  and this will help them understand what has been happening. A participant agreed the graphs
might show where change is needed; the 2012 condition should be a baseline for moving forward. Models
can  be used  to  show trends  and scenarios; the resulting questions will trigger additional research.
Commitment is needed at  all levels of society in addition  to the government. A participant noted that
society affects change in Puerto Rico rather than the government; the government often is an  obstacle  to
change. In addition, the target audience for this effort needs to be better defined. Dr. Hopton noted the
government can add stability, but everyone needs a voice within the bottom-up effort.

A participant  noted that civilians lack enforcement support from agencies regarding  environmental and
social  issues.  Even though  they do  not understand the  process, civilians must perform  their own
enforcement.

The participants discussed information flow, noting that universal access to data and information is needed;
agencies and information generators must commit to  posting information  on a "cloud"  repository. If the
information is available, then researchers, decision-makers, NGOs, communities, and so forth can access  it.
Community outreach  is needed to publicize  the  information is available. Government agencies should
provide training on request regarding what information is  available, how to access  it, and how it can be
used. There is  no public information law in Puerto Rico, which results in a lack of transparency.  In addition
to dissemination, it is necessary to package information in  a useful manner. Some entities charge for each
page of information accessed, which can become  cost prohibitive.  Puerto Rico must pass a law that  is
similar to the U.S. Freedom of Information Act. Finally, information can "go viral" on social networks.

At this point in the discussion, the participants used the lessons learned, messages and recommendations
that Dr. Hopton had presented as a template for modifying them and expressing their points  of view. The
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resulting PowerPoint presentation developed by the participants can be found in Appendix S. The new
observations were as follows:

Lessons Learned Regarding the Vision of a Path Toward Sustainability

    •   Participants think that Puerto Rico needs  a clear vision of Sustainability for the  long  term. It is
        necessary to determine the current state of Sustainability on the island and then decide the future
        direction.

    •   There are many frameworks for studying Sustainability, but which one(s) is the right one for Puerto
        Rico?

        There is an opportunity for developing collaborative partnerships in the Sustainability community.

    •   Stakeholder participation must be increased.

Lessons Learned Regarding Research

        Scientists have different visions, perspectives, research and information.

    •   Many issues relate to data:

        o   It is recognized that data are missing, and there is a need to emphasize critical data gaps.

        o   Data need to be centralized, categorized in terms of quality, and made more readily available.

        o   Opportunities for data sharing and collaboration became  obvious during the  symposium and
            workshop.

        o   Information is lacking regarding available public data.

    •   Based on participation, Sustainability research is well established in Puerto Rico; only a  very small
        subset was represented at the symposium.

        There is a lack of communication about Sustainability research in  Puerto Rico among researchers,
        as well as between researchers and policy-makers on and off the island.

        The social science perspective on Sustainability in Puerto Rico is lacking.

        The symposium created a missing  forum for scientific discussion.

    •   Organized discussions among scientists need to continue.

        This symposium/workshop is a first step rather than a final answer.

    •   Scientists need to  translate information to make it accessible to everyone (e.g., policy-makers, other
        disciplines, the public, communities).

        ORD's research will  provide a tool to show whether Puerto Rico  is moving toward or away from
        Sustainability. Given  the limitations and decision-maker needs, research opportunities need to be
        identified to enhance  decision-making.
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                      Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto Rico: A Scientific Discussion
Messages Regarding the Vision of a Path Toward Sustainability

        It is necessary to establish a Sustainability vision for Puerto Rico with associated goals. What does
        Puerto Rico want to achieve? Can scenarios reveal how to accomplish this? Goals must include
        social, economic, and environmental aspects.

        The approach instituted must be from the bottom up; everyone needs to participate.

        Data issues need to be addressed (e.g., QA/QC to ensure available data are of the highest quality).

    •   Organized discussions must continue.

        Collaborative efforts, partnerships, and alliances  are needed to leverage dwindling resources and
        enhance the  knowledgebase.  A  transdisciplinary approach  must be employed that  includes
        nonacademics, nonresearchers, decision-makers  and  the  public in addition  to multidisciplinary
        researchers. There are existing opportunities that can be explored.

    •   Sustainability must be addressed with short-, medium- and long-term goals

    •   Commitment is needed at all levels of society.

        Government agencies and researchers  should support data collection and make data  available to
        diverse users in a user-friendly manner.

Message Regarding Research

        The research community must convert to  issue-based thinking rather than discipline-based
        thinking.

The participants next discussed the recommendation to create  a task force. Dr. Hopton said that it was
important to ensure broad representation on the task force. NGOs know how to perform public outreach,
and it is important the task force include members who know how  to do this.  The task force may be
established at the federal, island or municipio level, depending on the goals of the effort.

A participant noted the need for media coverage and public education about the task force effort; the
process must be transparent so that Puerto Ricans will trust it. The media should be used as a tool. There
should be media coverage about this symposium/workshop and its outcomes, focusing on the  fact that
researchers  were present and stated that broader participation is needed. This should come from EPA.
Drs. Hopton and Heberling promised  to  follow up with Region 2 about  a  press release regarding this
symposium/workshop. Another participant said that he had spoken to Caribbean Business about including
information on the symposium to reach members of the business community and investors.

A participant stated that it is necessary to explore the unequal power distribution regarding who will be able
to attend task force meetings; there may be individuals who are very interested in  participating but do not
have the capacity to attend as a result of a variety of reasons (e.g., lack of child care).

Dr. Hopton  said that once the vision and goals are established, the task force could  determine its tasks. The
government must be included because it can institute the process and compel action. The task force will be
responsible  for  achieving  the  vision  with its  associated goals  (e.g.,  increased agriculture, decreased
mortality). The task force will  engage experts related to the  goals  who can  address the problems at the
appropriate  scale. It  is necessary to meet the  needs of stakeholders, which can  be accomplished by
including them in the process. The task force should remain in place no matter which party is in power and
continue working through regime changes.


                                The Office of Research and Development                              44

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                      Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto Rico: A Scientific Discussion
Recommendation To Establish a Task Force

The participants recommend that a task force be established to explore sustainability in Puerto Rico. The
task force should:

    •    Establish tangible action items, with timelines and finite deadlines.

    •    Organize future meetings similar to this symposium/workshop.

        Identify key stakeholders.

        o  Employ a transdisciplinary approach that ensures that members possess a range of knowledge,
           expertise, and communication skills (e.g., developing a common language).

        o  Examine  all sectors,  including academia,  NGOs, unions, business,  religious, community,
           industry, government, tourism, and so forth.

    •    Determine additional action items.

        o  Consult citizens (who bring knowledge) and technical advisory groups (that bring expertise) to
           support the capacity building (e.g., training) of task force members.

        o  Establish a vision-building process.

        o  Determine what institutional framework already exists for sustainability for Puerto Rico.

        Be held accountable.

    •    Ensure adaptability.

        Promote media relations.

    •    Support participation (e.g., of community groups, mothers with children).

    •    Consider sector the task force belongs (e.g., academia, government).

The participants  discussed potential  questions for decision-makers,  including a discussion about Puerto
Rico Sustainability Law #267, which is the responsibility of nine commissioners housed within the EQB.
This law may need to be reviewed and revised. The infrastructure of this law could be used as the basis for
the task force.

A participant noted that academia is the only sector remaining in Puerto Rico  in which citizens have some
trust, although  it  would be ideal to house the task force within the governor's office. Another participant
remarked that if placed within the governor's office, the task force would not receive funding. A previous
environmental  task force within the office never  received a  budget, and its members paid their  own
expenses. Everyone agreed on the need for federal and local financial commitment. Dr. Hopton said that it
would be difficult to obtain such a commitment; the  more costly the task force, the less likely that it will be
established.

A participant noted that a self-sustaining task force would be a challenge to establish and asked what other
resources could be used to support the task force. Another participant said there would be a meeting  with
the Puerto  Rico DNER on June 29, 2012. The agencies and sectors present may be able to provide input
and knowledge. This should be  a starting point. There will be a presentation from the working groups that


                                The Office of Research and Development                              45

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                      Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto Rico: A Scientific Discussion
have been exploring critical climate change indicators and scenarios, and this will provide the opportunity
to explore synergies between the climate change  and sustainability efforts.  A participant  thought the
questions should be addressed to a broader audience than decision-makers because multiple disciplines will
be involved in the answers.

Questions for Decision-Makers

        Does it make sense to establish a task force?

    •    Should a committee be appointed to review and revise the Puerto Rico Sustainability Law #267?

        Can the government commit to a task force and make it self-sustaining?

        Is a task force the best way to support and grow this type of collaborative effort?

    •    Does the government agree with the action items identified for the task  force? What  other action
        items should be listed for the task force?

    •    Who should be represented on the task force?

    •    Who should take the lead?

Day 3 Wrap-Up

The participants discussed the next steps. Everyone agreed  that it is important there be an incentive for
decision-makers to participate in the next symposium;  media coverage may provide this. The participants
identified the following next steps:

    •    Publish proceedings of the symposium/workshop.

    •    Solidify collaborations.

        Broaden questions for decision-makers (create an approach).

    •    Establish a portal for researchers working in Puerto Rico.

    •    Develop a scientifically sound strategy for sustainable environmental management in Puerto Rico.

        Make easily understood information available for use by decision-makers and the public.

    •    Ensure that decision-makers and representatives from  the business sector are present at the next
        meeting; media coverage could provide this incentive.

Dr. Hopton closed the meeting  by stating there had been an obvious need for this event and the effort to
establish a sustainability vision for Puerto Rico. The symposium/workshop was a good first step, and the
goal is to involve the appropriate individuals to further the effort, regardless of government support. It is
possible to proceed in the right  direction, and the fact the governor's office sent a representative is a good
sign. Dr. Hopton adjourned the meeting at 2:43 p.m.
                                The Office of Research and Development                              46

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Appendix A

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                              Quantifying
                            Sustainanility
                           in  Puerto  Rico:
                                 A Scientific Discussion
                              Puerto Rico Convention Center
                      San Juan, Puerto Rico • June 5-7, 2012
                            Participant List
Mitchell Aide, Ph.D.
University of Puerto Rico

Juan Amador, B.S.
GLM Engineering-COOP

Richard Appeldoorn, Ph.D.
University of Puerto Rico

Myrna Aponte
Puerto Rico Department of Natural and
 Environmental Resources

Alberto Archilla
V.I.D.A.S.

Ada Caballero, B.S.
Municipality of Caguas

Alecxy Cintron
Puerto Rico Environmental Quality Board

Aissa M. Colon Cruz
Puerto Rico Environmental Quality Board

Jose Colucci, Ph.D.
University of Puerto Rico

Carmen Concepcion, Ph.D.
University of Puerto Rico

David N. Cuevas
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Damanis Delgado
Puerto Rico Department of Natural and
 Environmental Resources

Ricardo de Soto, B.A.
Programa GuardaMar, Inc.

Diana Delgado, B.S.
University of Puerto Rico

Nicole Diaz
University of Puerto Rico

Doira Diaz, J.D.
Office of the Governor

Ernesto Diaz, M.S.
Puerto Rico Department of Natural and
 Environmental Resources

Pedro Diaz
U.S. Geological Survey, Caribbean Water
 Science Center

Luis Diaz Perez, Ph.D.
University of Puerto Rico Center for Applied
 Tropical Ecology and Conservation Coral Reef
 Research Group

Rafael R. Diaz Vazquez
Puerto Rico Department of Natural and
 Environmental Resources

Jose Dumas, Ph.D.
University of Puerto Rico

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Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto Rico: A
Scientific Discussion
                                Appendix A
Raimunde Espinoza
The Nature Conservancy

Jose C. Font
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Graciela Garcia-Moliner
Caribbean Fisheries Management Control

Pedro F. Guevara
Puerto Rico Environmental Quality Board

Blanche Gonzalez Hodge
Puerto Rico Environmental Quality Board

Matthew Heberling, Ph.D.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Edwin Hernandez, Ph.D., M.S., B.S.
University of Puerto Rico

Matt Hopton, Ph.D.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Juan Jimenez, M.S.
Puerto Rico Planning Board

Ricardo Laureano, B.S.
V.I.D.A.S.

Kristen LeBaron
The Scientific Consulting Group, Inc.

Mary Ann Lucking, B.S.
CORALations

Efrain Maldonado, J.D.
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban
  Development

Elvia Melendez-Ackerman, Ph.D.
University of Puerto Rico

Miguel A. Nieves
Puerto Rico Department of Environmental and
Natural Resources
Cecilio Ortiz, Ph.D.
University of Puerto Rico at Mayaguez

Wilfredo Ortiz
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban
  Development

Justin Orozco
Go Green

Carlos Paniagua, M.S.
Puerto Rico Department of Natural and
  Environmental Resources

Isabel Pares
University of Puerto Rico

Maria Perez, Ph.D.
University of Puerto Rico

Luis Enrique Ramos
University of Puerto Rico

Antares Ramos Alvarez
National Oceanic and Atmospheric
  Administration

Carla Restrepo,  Ph.D.
University of Puerto Rico

Jose W. Rivera Cach
Puerto Rico Energy Affairs Administration

Erika Rivera Felicie
Puerto Rico Energy Affairs Administration

Veronica Reyes
BLH Technologies, Inc.

Jesus Rodriguez, M.S.
U.S. Geological Survey

Lisbeth San Miguel
Puerto Rico Environmental Quality Board

Luis Santiago, Ph.D.
University of Puerto Rico

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Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto Rico: A                                            Appendix A
Scientific Discussion

Jenniffer Santos-Hernandez, M.A.
University of Delaware

Madeline Sepulveda
Puerto Rico Environmental Quality Board

Alejandro S. Luciano
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Susan Silander, M.S.
U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

Hector L. Velez Cruz
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Ernesto Velez Gandia, M.B.A.
University of Puerto Rico Center for Applied
 Tropical Ecology and Conservation Coral Reef
 Research Group

Rosa Vazquez Rivera
Puerto Rico Environmental Quality Board

Ernesto Weil, Ph.D.
University of Puerto Rico

Shanshan Wu, Ph.D.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

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Appendix B

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Quantifying Sustainability in  Puerto  Rico: A
Scientific Discussion
                                              Appendix B
                                                                                  Objectives
                                                                                  • Discuss issues pertinent to sustainability in PR
                                                                                  • Discover what researchers are currently studying in
                                                                                   PR related to sustainability and how that research can
                                                                                   affect or help decision makers
                                                                                  • Learn how EPA ORD research goals can be enhanced
                                                                                   and applied  in collaboration with research described
                                                                                   above
                                                                                  • Plan coordinated research program and
                                                                                   implementation of activities to move Puerto Rico
                                                                                   towards a more sustainable future
               Office of Research and Development
               • We are a scientific research organization
               • Our research may aid decisions or regulations
                 -We provide the science and information to help
                  inform credible decisions
               • Our "customers" include
                 -Regions
                 -Program Offices
                 -American public
The Path Forward, circa 2010
•"... important to move ahead with several key
 elements of the Transformation Initiative - integrated
 multidisciplinary research, focus on problems of broad
 national  interest, and a closer interaction with our
 program and regional partners - this alone is not
 sufficient to elevate our work to the next level if we are
 to truly address the complex  environmental problems
 of the 21st century."
               The True North
               •"... the future of ORD includes a recognition that the
                goal of sustainability is our "true north," that scientific
                and technological innovation is essential to the
                success of our mission, that we need to couple our
                excellence in problem assessment with an equal
                excellence in solving problems, and that we must act
                with a sense of urgency."
Sustainability
• "Attaining a society that can meet its needs while
 preserving the ability of future generations to meet
 their needs is our primary goal. Our solution to a
 problem must not only solve the problem at hand, but
 it also must not create a new problem as a result. As
 stated earlier, sustainability must be our true north."

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Quantifying  Sustainability in Puerto Rico: A
Scientific Discussion
                                            Appendix B
               Sustainability without a name
               • "EPA was not created to deal with the usual mix of
                social problems whether they be poverty, jobs,
                housing, education, crime .... In a real sense, EPA's
                mission transcends all of these. That mission is the
                preservation of life itself."

                              Administrator William D. Ruckelshaus
                                                May 18th, 1983
Research Priorities
•Air, Climate, and Energy
• Chemical Safety for Sustainability
• Safe and Sustainable Water Resources
• Sustainable and Healthy Communities
• Homeland Security
•Human Health Risk Assessment
               Sustainable and Healthy Communities
               • EPA researchers and their partners and stakeholders
                are working together to form a deeper understanding
                of the balance between the three pillars of
                Sustainability—environment, society, and economy.
               • Their transdisciplinary work will provide the decision
                tools and data that communities need to make
                proactive, strategic decisions aimed at a prosperous,
                more environmentally sustainable future.
Sustainable and Healthy Communities
• Three Focus Areas
  1.  Develop comprehensive approaches to help
     communities become more sustainable
  2.  Develop decision support tools, models and
     metrics that can be used to improve sustainable
     community practices
  3.  Meet EPA's regulatory requirements
               Research in Puerto Rico
               • ~40 team members
                -Coral reef management in the Guanica Bay
                 watershed (Bill Fisher, Task lead)
                -Sustainability metrics research
Sustainability Metrics Goals
• Develop decision support tools and data for examining
 system Sustainability
• Identify trends in moving toward or away from
 Sustainability

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Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto Rico: A
Scientific Discussion
                                                                          Appendix B
             Acknowledge Collaborators
             • Office of the Governor
              (Luis Fortune)
               -Doira Diaz
             • Environmental Quality
              Board
             • Planning Board
             • Energy Affairs
              Administration
             • Solid Waste Authority
• Department of Natural
 and Environmental
 Resources
• EPA Region 2
 -CEPD
•USDA-FS, IITF
• USAGE
•USGS
•NOAA

-------
Appendix C

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Quantifying Sustainability in  Puerto Rico: A
Scientific Discussion
                                                                                                                      Appendix C
                                                                                      Outline
                                                                                      •Sustainability
                                                                                      • San Luis Basin Sustainability project
                                                                                        -Lessons from the SLB Project
                                                                                      • Puerto Rico Sustainability project
                                                                                      • Economic metric results
                                                                                      • Next Steps
                Sustainability
•"... development that meets the needs of the present
 without compromising the ability of future generations
 to meet their own needs." WCED (1987: 43)

•Three pillars:  associated economic, social, and
 supporting environmental systems must work in
 concert to maintain desired level of functioning (UN
 2002)
                                                                      Sustainability
                                                                                      •Very broad, complicated, and challenging; it can lead
                                                                                       to different interpretations (Prugh et al. 1999):
                                                                                        -Political: social justice and equity of wealth distribution
                                                                                        -Economic: well-being rises over the long term
                                                                                        -Ecological: conservation of ecosystem processes
                                                                                        -Engineer: efficiency of energy and material use
                                                                                      •A collaborative,  interdisciplinary approach is necessary
                                                                                        -Ecologists, Economists, Engineers, Geographers,  Policy and
                                                                                         law, Outreach specialists
                                                                                      • A single metric or index will not capture everything
                Motivation
                • Federal government must integrate economic, social
                 and environmental policies to achieve Sustainability
                •Therefore, EPA and its partners
                  -"will develop integrating decision support tools... and supporting
                   data and analysis that will guide decision makers toward
                   environmental Sustainability and sustainable development."
                • Our hope is for local decision makers to use these tools
                 and analysis as a part of future environmental
                 management decisions.
                                                                      Goal
                                                                      •  Produce a straightforward, inexpensive methodology
                                                                        -Used to measure and monitor the prosperity and environmental
                                                                         quality of a regional system

                                                                      • Pilot tested approach in San Luis Basin (SLB),
                                                                       Colorado

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Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto  Rico:  A
Scientific Discussion
                                                                                          Appendix C
                Our sustainability definition
                • Economic, social, and supporting environmental
                 systems must work in concert to maintain a desired
                 level of functioning
                  -Must persist "indefinitely"
                •Any single component not "sustainable" means the
                 system is not "sustainable"
                                          Metrics versus indicators
                                          • Indicator - measures one characteristic of a system
                                           (Mayer 2008)
                                           -CO2 emissions
                                           -Biological diversity
                                          • Metric - combines many indicators through
                                           aggregation to measure sustainability
                                           -Ecological footprint

                                          • We emphasize metrics over indicators to
                                           capture/quantify system dynamics
                                           -Indicators have value
                Metric response

                • Some metrics can identify a system as sustainable
                  -We thought it more informative to identify where a system is
                   heading
                • Sustainability is a moving target
                  -What is considered sustainable today may not be tomorrow
                • Identify trends through time
                  -Do not focus on absolute values
                  -Identify direction system is moving
                                         Metrics of Sustainability
                                         • Multidimensional problem requires multiple metrics
                                           -Consumption of resources by humans impacts environment
                                              • Ecological Footprint Analysis (EFA)
                                           -Sustainability is anthropocentric and human well-being can
                                             influence environmental interest
                                              • Green Net Regional Product (GNRP)
                                           -Energy is required to maintain system order and function
                                              • Emergy Analysis (EmA)
                                           -Systems have an inherent order
                                              • Fisher Information (Fl)
              AEFft
                Recommendations from SLB
                   Examine past decisions and
                   how the metrics changed
                   Continue calculating the
                   metrics for subsequent years
                   Determine if other metrics
                   may better assess
                   sustainability
                   Develop trend analyses
                   and/or approaches for
                   estimating confidence
                   intervals
Develop models of alternative
future scenarios
Test these multiple metrics in
other regions
Examine correlation among
metrics to determine whether
certain metrics could be
dropped
Consider use of other
scientific approaches for
holistic results
Lessons learned
•  Involve stakeholders early
•  Involve decision makers early
  - Include tools that address specific issues
•  No "one-size fits all" metric
  - Tailor the tools to fit the region

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Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto  Rico: A
Scientific Discussion
                                                 Appendix C
              Q.CD&
              \*CrH

                 Puerto Rico Sustainability Metrics Project
                 • Antipodal case study compared to San Luis Basin
                 • Knowledge gained from the SLB Project informs
                  Puerto Rico Project.
                  - More interactive process to identify issues and additional
                    indicators that address specific policy needs
                  - Develop approach for using metrics as decision support
                 • Outcomes for 2012:
                  - 2012 Scientific Symposium/Workshop
                    •  Identify and collaborate with researchers working on
                      Sustainability issues in Puerto Rico
                    •  Organize efforts to holistically address those issues and
                      extend beyond USEPA expertise
                                                                                                                                Fotrtuivil Ltna CMvoura
                 Process for metric research
                 • Formalized (based on GEMI The Metrics Navigator)
                  -Knowledge of the system: Issues, goals, and decision makers
                       • Encourage collaboration and public participation
                  -Choose relevant metrics that match knowledge
                  -Determine data availability for each metric: Collect and create
                    data
                  -Calculate metrics and interpret, evaluate results
                  -Communicate to public and decision makers
                  -Publish publicly-available and easily understood report for use
                    by decision makers and public
Four metrics as  a starting point
• Propose 4 metrics from SLB
  -Four metrics are still relevant
    • Basic knowledge of environmental systems
    • Solid, well-established metrics
    • Peer-reviewed methodology
    • Test methodology in industrialized region
• Make methodology more useful to decision makers
  -Incorporate or supplement with indicators that capture issues of
   known importance
                 Objectives
                 1  Determine applicability of using existing datasets to
                    estimate metrics at a regional scale
                 2  Calculate metrics through time (1960-present)
                 3  Compare and contrast results to determine if region
                    is moving toward or away from Sustainability
Ecological  Footprint Analysis (EFA)
• Captures the supply and demand of biologically
 productive land
  - EF Balance = (supply) - (demand)
• Simplified methodology
  - 35 versus -150 variables

• USEPA Lead: Matthew Hopton (hopton.matthew@epa.gov)

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Quantifying Sustainability  in Puerto Rico: A
Scientific Discussion
                                                Appendix C
             V>tt"r\

                Green Net National Product (GNNP)
                • Captures the welfare of the system
                  -GNNP = (real value of consumption) + (real value of net
                   investments)
                    • Net investment includes the stocks of environmental
                     resources, man-made, and foreign capital
                      -e.g., solid waste, air pollution, mangroves, value of time

                Environmental Justice
                • Measures pollution distribution to determine if
                 environmental inequality exists

                • USEPA Leads: Matthew Heberling (heberling.matt@epa.gov)
                 and Shanshan Wu (wu.shanshan@epa.gov)
                                                                               -
 Emergy Analysis (EmA)

• Energy memory or embodied energy
• Captures the flow of energy through the system
  - sum of all kinds of available energy used up, directly and
   indirectly, to make an item, solar emjoules (Odum 1996)
• Two indices:
  -Total emergy used
  - Fraction of renewable to total emergy
• Data collection ongoing

-USEPALead: Cissy Ma (ma.cissy@epa.gov)
                Fisher Information (Fl)
                 Well functioning systems exist in well ordered dynamic
                 regimes where dynamic order does not change with
                 time
                  - Captures the dynamic changes in the condition of a system
                 Uses data that characterize the state of system
                  - Production, consumption, environmental, etc.
                  USEPA Leads: Heriberto Cabezas (cabezas.heriberto@epa.gov) and
                  Leisha Vance (Vance.Leisha@epa.gov)
 Criteria (away from sustainability)
 • Measures of strong sustainability
  -EFA-ecological balance decreasing
  - EmA - fraction of renewable to total emergy moving away from
   1
 • Measures of weak sustainability
  -Fl - steadily decreasing overtime
  -GNNP - decreasing through time
             AEFft
                Differing systems
                • Ecological Footprint
                  -Different consumption patterns, land use, population
                •GNNP
                  -Different components of natural capital depreciation
                • Emergy
                  -Different goods, services, and energy uses
                • Fisher Information
                  -Depends on time series data, specific to the system under
                   study
Stakeholder meeting  December 2009
• Met with stakeholders and decision makers to identify
  issues
   •US EPA Region 2, CEPD
   •NOAA-NWS
   •NOAA-CFMC
   •USDA-FS
   •USGS
   •USAGE
                                                                                        •University Researchers
•Office of the Governor
•Planning Board
•Environmental Quality Board
•Energy Affairs Administration
•Solid Waste Authority
•Department of Natural and
 Environmental Resources

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Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto  Rico: A
Scientific Discussion
                                                                                           Appendix C
                Relevant questions for stakeholders
                •What issues matter to Puerto Rico and sustainability?
                  -Shiels et al. 2008
                    • Soil erosion
                    • Mass-wasting process (slope movement)
                  -Martinuzzietal. 2009
                    • Land/habitat loss/transformation
                    • population growth/density
                                           Relevant questions for stakeholders
                                           •What issues matter to Puerto Rico and sustainability?
                                             -Aultetal. 2008
                                               • Coral reef fisheries
                                             -Caribbean Water Science Center Science Plan 1999
                                               • Water quantity (and quality)
              S PPA
             Ou r\
                Important issues
                •Our list
                  -Soil erosion / mass wasting
                  -Habitat loss
                  -Land use
                  -Population growth
                  -Coral reef/fisheries
                  -Water quality
                  -Water quantity
• Stakeholder list
  -Soil erosion / mass wasting
  -Habitat loss
  -Land use
  -Population growth
  -Coral reef / fisheries
  -Water quality
  -Water quantity
  -Invasive species
  -Trash / solid waste
  -Energy use
  -Air quality
Relevant questions for stakeholders
•Who are the relevant decision-makers for island
 metrics?
• What current research activities are planned or
 ongoing at government agencies or universities related
 to sustainability metrics or decision support?
  -Avoid duplication of ongoing efforts
  -Supplement local efforts
    • Coordinate to make cohesive effort for sustainability
    • Review literature
    • Symposium/workshop brings researchers together
             AEFft
                Relevant questions for stakeholders
                • What are the data needs?
                  -What data are available?
                    • Time period and frequency
                    • Resolution
                      -Municipios
                      -Puerto Rico
                  -Who are the best people to talk about data and
                   availability?
                                           Current Status
                                           • Data collection and preliminary calculations are
                                            wrapping up
                                           • Identifying collaborations to broaden the research
                                            effort and supplement the core metrics
                                             -Stakeholder list not addressed: Soil erosion/mass wasting,
                                              habitat loss, coral reef/fisheries, water quantity, invasive
                                              species

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Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto Rico: A
Scientific Discussion
                                                 Appendix C
                Economic metric of sustainability
                • Economists: Will utility (satisfaction) of future
                 generations be lower than current generation?
                  -Define sustainability as non-decreasing utility (future utility
                   does not decrease below current level)
                  -Consumption including all commodities (market, environmental,
                   home produced, etc.) and amenities influences utility
                                                                                     GDP/GNP
    Measures market transactions
    - Market prices for aggregate value of economy's output
    - Never intended to measure welfare (function of utility)
    - Ignores
      •  Leisure
      •  Taking care of ones own kids, housework, etc.
      •  Nature's contribution to welfare
    - Need to account for the loss of value of capital (i.e.,
      depreciation)
      •  Capital:  physical assets that are used in association with
        labor and other inputs to produce goods and services
                Augmented GNNP
                • Captures the welfare of the system (Pezzey et al.
                  2006; Motaetal. 2010)
                  -Augmented because time is included as a stock that causes
                   changes in production (exogenous technological change)
 Augmented  GNNP
 GNNP"(f) = NNP(f) -eE+bM-J + (QR-fp)S + Q'
   - Net National Product: GNP has been adjusted for the depreciation of
    physical capital (e.g., machinery)
   - eE is the damage cost of emissions
   - bM-J is net benefit from mangroves
   - (QR ~ /R )^  is value of rents from crushed stone depletion
   -Value of time, Q1
 • Pezzey (2004) developed one-sided test of
   unsustainability
          GNNP"(i) < 0

   -Interpret as decreasing utility in the future
'   -Cannot say whether economy is sustainable
             AEFft
                Preliminary Estimate of GNNP (1993-2009)
 Next Steps
 • Proceedings identifying existing research and potential
   collaborations
 • Written protocol for identifying and calculating the
   metrics in Puerto Rico
 • Scientifically-sound strategy for sustainable
   environmental management in Puerto Rico
 • Journal articles presenting the  metrics and results

-------
Appendix D

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Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto
Rico: A Scientific  Discussion
                                                     Appendix  D
                  Legacies of Socio-economic Transitions on the
              Structure and Function of a Tropical  Drainage Basin:
                            Resilience and Sustainability
                                     Implications
                                    Carla Restrepo1
                                    Johanna Colon1
                                   Jenitza Melendez1
                                    Jan Sendzimir2
                               Department of Biology, UPR-RP1
                                         NASA2
                                   The Beginning of a Beginning
                                                              Passing 1909
                      Porto Rico mean annual rainfall 1899-1909
                   The Beginning of a Beginning
                                            Alexander 1902

 As  above intimated, there exist in Porto Rico  some  interesting and
seemingly valuable waterfalls. Among the best known and perhaps the most
important, we may mention the following, viz;
 Salto de Rio de La Plata, near Comerio; Salto Rio Blanco, Salto Morones,
in Arecibo River,  near Utuado; Salto Maldonado, in Arecibo River; Salto
Sanches, in Arecibo River; Salto Palmieri, in Arecibo river; and Salto Paso
Palma, in Yayuya.
                                                                                              A franchise has just been granted  for the development  of the  first-
                                                                                            mentioned fall, the object being to utilize its power to operate a railroad from
                                                                                            Catano to Ponce. Promoters are also investigating some of the other falls
                                                                                            with a view to their development for electrical plants and other purposes.
                                                                                            We hope soon to be able to present some details as to the size of the above-
                                                                                            mentioned falls, their available power, and other information relative there to
                                                                                            of value to engineers and agriculturalists.
                                    The Beginning of a Beginning
                                                                Passing 1909
                The rainfall of the north side of the island differs from that of the south side
               not only in being greater in quantity but also in being more certain to fall in
               amounts sufficient for all the needs of plant growth at all seasons of the year.
               On the south side periods of 4 or 5 weeks with little or no rain are of frequent
               occurrence, while penods of 2 to 3 months with less than an inch of rainfall are
               not uncommon.
                The scheme of irrigation now being provided for along the  south coast will,
               in great measure remedy the evils of an irregular and insufficient rainfall. In the
               mountains, but a few miles distant, there is an abundant water supply, available
               at all seasons of the year, which  can  be carried to the cane fields  at
               comparatively small cost. At the present time it is costing the planters from $25
               to $50 per acre per year to pump ground water for irrigating their cane fields.

                                   IMG   (3H1   1980   499D


                                                  •

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Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto
Rico: A Scientific Discussion
                                                                                 Appendix D
            • Water multiple uses
            • Water a valuable resource
            • Water a resource that can
             be moved around by
             means of technology /
             infrastructure development
            • Water a commodity that
             connects people far away
                                        •The Beginning of a Beginning
                                        • Sustainability of a Tropical Drainage Basin
                                        • Conclusions
                     Sustainability of a Tropical
                            Drainage Basin
                  Stream network SN0
                  Water quality WQI0
                  Water quantity WQt0
Stream network SN^
 Water quality WQI,
Water quantity WQt,
Sustainability
• Population and Human Resources
• Human settlements (urban)

• Food security
• Species and ecosystems

• Energy
• Industry (material; commodities)

EEE's
Social -Equfty
B s E
Environment Ecor

omic
• Aesthetics
• Ethics
Sustainable development, development that meets the
needs of the present without compromising the ability of
future generations to meet their own needs
                               Resilience
             • Water withdrawal for
              consumption, irrigation,
              and industrial processes
             • Water for waste dilution
             • Water management to
              gain land and/or prevent
              flooding

                  '

                   •'•
               vv
                                             SN0
                                            WQI0
                                            WQt0
           SN,
           WQI,
             Ecological resilience is the amount of disturbance a system
            can absorb without changing its state or structure and function
                                                       Questions
What are the relationships between stream and
infrastructure networks and patterns of human
occupation in the Rio Grande de Arecibo Watershed
(RGAW)
How do socioeconomic conditions and water quality
indicators vary across the RGAW?
Is there a relationship between socioeconomic and
water quality variables?
                                     Regime shifts in socioeconomic and water quality variables
                                        in the Rio Grande de Arecibo Watershed (RGAW)
                                                                                                                                         2

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Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto
Rico: A Scientific Discussion
                                                                     Appendix D
               Rio Grande de Arecibo Watershed
            • Municipalities of Arecibo,
             Utuado, Jayuya, and
            Adjuntas
            •33,170 ha
            • 188 people knr2
        0
                      Puerto Rico's "Superaqueduct"
                                              Methods
• Historic data
 • Infrastructure
 • Population size
• Water quality (USGS, PRQB, PRHD)
 • Nitrogen
 • Phosphorus
 • Total conforms
 • Fecal coliforms
• Socioeconomic (US Census Bureau)
 • Population
 • Housing
 • Income
 • Literacy
                                                                                                          SS
                             Methods
          • Ordination techniques to
           • Reduce data dimensionality
           • Create socioeconomic and
            water quality indices

          • Examine relationships
           between socioeconomic and
           water quality at sub watershed
           scales
Density
                                                                               Stream Network and
                                                                                 Human Occupation
                                                                             -
                                                                            tr
                                                                                    «> —


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Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto
Rico: A Scientific Discussion
                          Appendix D
             Public Infrastructure Network
                and Human Occupation
                   -•.
   Stream Network and
   Population Dynamics
               Public Infrastructure and
                 Population Dynamics
                            4 v* :4
                              *iv'1fe- .
Ordination socio-economic data
ss
PC1
Density
Median Aqe
Urban
Rural
Occupied 0.37
Median Year Built Structure
No Plumbinq
Unemployed 0.31
Social Security 0.30
Public Assistance 0.30
Salary Income
Self-employment Income
Social Security Income
Public Assistance Income
Retirement Income
Other Income
No School
Elemental School 0.31
Intermediate School 0.32
High School 0.33
College 1
College 2
PC 2

0.31
-0.30
0.33
0.27
-0.29
0.35
0.37
LS
PC 1

0.31
0.34
0.28
0.32
0.26
0.29
0.31
0.30
PC 2
0.33
0.32
-0.34
-0.30
0.36

            Ordination socio-economic data

                 	

Ordination water quality data
PC1
Nitrogen
Phosphorous
Total Coliform
Fecal Coliform
Fecal Streptococcis
0.31
0.42
0.50
0.51
0.47
PC 2
-0.76
-0.43
0.28
0.26
0.30
                                                                                               4

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Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto
Rico: A Scientific Discussion
                                     Appendix D
Ordination water
ss
SEPC1 SEPC2
WQPC1 0.098 0.511
WQPC2 0.494 0.104
quality data
LS
SEPC1 SEPC2
0.290 0.110
0.225 -0.058

                                                                               Stream Network and
                                                                              Socioeconomic Indices
               Public Infrastructure Network and
                     Socioeconomic Indices
                   s    '^          ..,•
                         Jir                   :
                                                                        •The Beginning of a Beginning
                                                                        • Sustainability of a Tropical Drainage Basin
                                                                        • Conclusions
                           Conclusions

             • Stream networks are key elements in the organization
              of human settlements
             • Public infrastructure networks have impacted human
              populations
             • Socio-economic indices are spatially
              heterogeneous and may suggest regime shifts
             • Socio-economic and  water quality indices were
              correlated in one instance
             •Areas of socio-economic concern seem to be associated
              with areas where public infrastructure projects have been
              develop
        Acknowledgements


Programa de Ciencias Ambientales UPR-RP
Sr. Angel Melendez (PREQB)
Sra. Rosa Vazquez (PREQB)
Sra. Madeline Sepulveda (PREQB),
Sra. Amarilis Rodriguez (PWSSP)
Mr. Senen Guzman (USGS)
Sra. Marta Rivera (AAA)
DEGI
Jose Juan Terrasa

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Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto
Rico: A Scientific Discussion
Appendix D
                                                                                           6

-------
Appendix E

-------
Quantifying Sustainability in  Puerto
Rico: A Scientific Discussion
                                            Appendix E
                  Resident Perceptions and Valuation of Green Areas and
                  Riverbank Hypothetical Improvements in a Tropical Urban
                  Watershed
                   San iu3n             Luis Santiago, Julio Verdejo and Raul Santiago
                   I -I v|-k . EPA Quantifying Sustainability in PR Symposium, San Juan, PR
                   ULTRA                           Junes,2012
                                                                              Our Interdisciplinary Research Team
                                                                            Luis Ramos, Doctoral Student, Florida State University
                                                                            Raul Santiago, Masters Student, Graduate School of Planning, UPR
                                                                            Julio Verdejo, UPR
                                                                            Luis Villanueva, Department of Environmental Sciences, UPR
                                                                            Elvia Melendez, Professor, Department of Environmental Sciences,
                                                                              UPR
                                                                            Diana Garcia, Department of Environmental Sciences, UPR
                                                                            Ariel E. Lugo, PI, International Institute of Tropical Forestry, US
                                                                              Forest Service
              Intensive Studies: Research Questions

           The following presentation will discuss:
           •  An understanding of the perceptions of residents
              towards green areas and bodies of water
           •  An estimation of the valuation attributed by
              residents to green areas and bodies of water
San Juan and the Rio Piedras River Watershed
(RPRW)
             A watershed
             where more
             water flows
             through potable
             water and sewer
             pipes than  its
             rivers and
             tributaries.
          Map: Raul Santiago
                                                                           Urban System Change and Social-Ecological Vulnerabilities

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Quantifying  Sustainability in  Puerto
Rico: A Scientific Discussion
                                                                          Appendix E

                                                                                                    SOIL TYPES
                                      STREETS AND ROADS
                                                                       SWJUIH
                                                                       'ULTRA
                                           Green Infrastructure and
                                              Ecosystem Services
                                   The contribution of green infrastructure to the
                                   socio-ecological system:
                                   - Flood control - soil permeability
                                   - Temperature regulation - green cover
                                   - Pollution control-green cover
                                   - Soil conservation - green cover
                                   -Aesthetic and recreational value-green cover
                                   - Planting fruits and vegetables-green land cover
               Sampling:  In-Person Interviews
            441 in-person interviews  •  Representative sample
             - 30 students participated in
               the sampling efforts
            Sampling period: January
            to August, 2011
            Interview Duration: 20
            minutes
• Stratified and convenience
 sample (Seguinotand
 Hernandez, unpublished)
  Sampling: Housing Sales  Data

2005-2009 housing sales data was obtained from
a local real estate firm (Luis Abreu & Associates)
Property addresses (number, street names and
zip codes) were used to geocode the geo-
referenced points of housing sales.
We defined a viewshed representing visible
green areas from a  property
We also estimated residential housing distance to
public green areas,  rivers, streams and shopping
malls.
                                                                                                                            2

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Quantifying Sustainability in  Puerto
Rico: A Scientific Discussion
                                                Appendix E
                Resident Perceptions:  Relationship
                             with the River
               Progressive isolation from the river due to human
                      intervention, such as channelization


            Residents who visited the river are, on average, older than
            those who have not visited it
             - Average Ages: 54.0 vs. 48.7
            Two out of every three residents who know the river's
            location have never visited the river
    Resident Perceptions: Preference for
                       Trees
There seems to be a gap between a stated preference for trees in
  properties and the reduction in public and private green areas
                     in the watershed


'  Groups who stated preference for trees in their property:
  - 87% of men
  — 73% of women
  — 85% of residents in single housing units
  ~ 91% of residents in apartments
  — 83% of property owners
  — 92% of those renting housing units
•  However, 76% of residents who identified trees in their property
  as a problem, do not recognizethem as a problem in their
  neighborhood
              Estimation  of Green Area Valuation

             • Hedonic Valuation of
                — Access to public parks
                - Views of green areas from residences
             • Contingent valuation of riverbank restoration
   The Hedonic Method and Factors that
            Influence the Sales Price
   The Hedonic method is an "indirect" valuation method
   in which we do not observe the value consumers have
   for the characteristics directly, but infer it from
   observable market transactions (Champ, Boyle & Brown
   2003)

   Factors considered (directly or indirectly) when
   purchasing a home
   •  Physical characteristics
   •  Its distance to other amenities
                                          Hedonic Method:
                                          Linear regression
                                          Dependent Variable:
                                             Housing purchase price
                                          Independent variables:
                                          •  Physical housing
                                            characteristics
                                          •  Socioeconomic data
                                          •  Distance to
                                             • rivers and streams
                                             • shopping centers with
                                              more than 46,450 m2
                                              of retail space
                                             • public green areas
                                              greater than 3,930m2
                                          •  Visible green areas from a
                                            housing unit
                                                                                   -  =-  *'~ -«inr"
                                                                                   -—  ,»^MI»—.
                                Preliminary
                                Results
                                  There is no statistically
                                  significant relationship
                                  between the purchase
                                  price of properties and
                                  distance to large public
                                  urban green areas within
                                  the Rio Piedras
                                  watershed.

                                  We found a positive and
                                  statistically significant
                                  relationship between
                                  green area visibility and
                                  property purchase price.

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Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto
Rico: A Scientific Discussion
                                     Appendix E
              Contingent Valuation Method of
                Watershed  Restoration Efforts
             A Contingent valuation exercise of stream and
             riparian environmental services was
             conducted with the intent of assessing
             feasibility of a voluntary contribution (WTP)
             for collaborative management funding.
  Contingent Valuation Method:
     Comparison of Scenarios
                       Si
            Contingent Valuation Method Results

           • None of the variables explaining resident
             connection to nearest stream were statistically
             significant.
           • Median WTP was estimated at $155.48 per
             household per year.
           • Expected median revenue is $4.8 million per
             year.
 Beyond San Juan ULTRA-EX: In-Depth
                 Work
•  Continue characterization of green areas and
  bodies of water in the watershed
•  Identify sustainability indicators in
  consultation with stakeholders.
•  Quantify and value important ecosystem
  services in the watershed
                      www. sanjuanuitra. com
                                                                         Acknowledgements
                                                                 University of Puerto Rico
                                                                 National Science Foundation
                                                                 US Forest Service, International  Institute  of Tropical
                                                                  Forestry
                                                                 Fundacion Puertorriquena de Conservacion
                                                                                                                  4

-------
Appendix F

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Quantifying Sustainability in  Puerto Rico: A
Scientific Discussion
                                                                                              Appendix F
                    Green Area Loss in San Juan's Suburban Neighborhoods:
                    Estimation Methods, Environmental Consequences, and Preliminary
                    Identification of Precipitating Factors and Processes
                    sanjuan

                     ULTRA
Luis Enrique Ramos, LuisVillanueva and LuisSantiago
    EPA Quantifying Sustainability in PR Symposium.
                                             Why study suburban green areas?


                                            • Urban and suburban private and public residential green
                                              areas are considered beneficial for the natural environment
                                              and for society's well-being.
                                            • These provide significant health, economic, and ecological
                                              benefits (James et al. 2009).
                                            • Their continuous detriment and/or loss are considered
                                              problematic.
                                            • Suburban residential areas constitute the majority of San
                                              Juan's metropolitan footprint.
                                            • Green areas are an intrinsic element of the suburban
                                              landscape; their loss represents the erosion of an Utopian
                                              vision that sought a healthier and  closer relationship
                                              between man and nature.
                                 Research

                Socioeconomic, physical/spatial, and land-use
                trends, as well as technological and regulatory
                characteristics, as they evolve in time, are
                documented and analyzed.


                The study also attempts to quantify the loss of
                environmental services and seeks to identify the
                socioeconomic and technological factors  and
                processes associated with suburban green area
                loss.
                                                              Objectives
                                               Design and apply methodologies for suburban
                                               green area loss/gain estimation.
                                               Use of quantitative and qualitative techniques for
                                               socio-ecological analysis.
                                               Understand the link between socio-economic
                                               trends, technological conditions, and
                                               cultural/legal factors that influence green/grey
                                               area dynamics in  suburban neighborhoods.
                                               Expand the discussion on Neighborhood Decline
                                               Cycle Theory by incorporating explicit
                                               environmental issues.
                                                                                                  Methodology 1

                                                                                       Green Area Loss Quantification

                                                                                    Original green/gray area scenario is reconstructed in digital
                                                                                    AutoCAD format for each neighborhood. Historic aerial and ground
                                                                                    level photographs, architectural plans, site plan, and cadastral maps
                                                                                    among other sources were used to define initial residential
                                                                                    structures footprint.

                                                                                    Tabulated buildings footprint area from the year of construction for
                                                                                    each neighborhood is subtracted from year 2008 updated buildings
                                                                                    footprint area from San Juan's cadastral map GIS data system.

                                                                                    The difference constitutes a proxy for green area loss due to
                                                                                    increase in building footprint. Since this methodology does not
                                                                                    accounts for green area loss due to paving, street planting strip loss,
                                                                                    or swimming pool construction, it constitutes a minimum threshold
                                                                                    for green area loss in the neighborhood.

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Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto Rico: A
Scientific Discussion
                                                                                             Appendix F
                                      r~f
                                                                  Methodology 2
                                                         Green Cover Loss Quantification
                                                                    (in process)
                                                       Year 2010 infrared orthorectified aerial imagery for each neighborhood is
                                                       compared to orthorectified historical aerial photographs close to the year
                                                       of construction for each neighborhood.
                                                       Change in green area coverage is quantified.
           Puerto Nuevo
                                                     Caparra Terrace
University Gardens
    	"Wi
                                                                   Private Residential Green Area Loss
                                                                                  Ratios
                                                                 Puerto Nuevo
                                                                                 Caparra Terrace
                                                                                   1956-200S
                                                                                     University Gardens
                                                                                       1960-.-200S

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Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto Rico: A
Scientific Discussion
                                          Appendix F
               Environmental Services Affected by

                    Suburban Green Area Loss


              • Augmentation of Heat Island Effect
              • Waterproofing of ground surface and obstruction of
              groundwater hydrologic cycle
              • Increase of storm water runoff and increase in
              sedimentation in governing body of water
              • Diminished carbon absorption capacity
              • Degraded aesthetic qualities and hindrance of suburban
              landscape functionality and benefits
              • Loss of habitat for both local and foreign flora and fauna
              species (Biodiversity)
              • Loss of noise absorption capacity
              • Loss of spiritual/psychological well-being (Biophilia)
           Socioeconomics

In addition socio-economic and housing data
was compiled using US Censuses for the years
I960, 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000 and 2010 for
each neighborhood.
                              GRAPHS
                                Median Income:
                             Three Census Tracts (1960-2010)
                GRAPHS
                              GRAPHS
                                 Population:
                             Three Census Tracts (1960-2010)
                GRAPHS
              Density (Housing Units per Acre):
              Three Census Tracts (1960-2010)


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Quantifying Sustainability  in  Puerto  Rico:  A
Scientific  Discussion
                                                          Appendix  F
                                         GRAPHS
                      GRAPHS
                                                                                                                           CAPARRA TERRACE (1960-2010)
                                                                                                              \
                                         GRAPHS
                                       UNIVERSITY GARDENS (1960-2010)
                            z
           Preliminary Findings
Loss of green areas has occurred in all three private residential areas, with the exception of

In older working-class neighborhoods green area loss is significantly larger.
Endogenous and exogenous factors have also been associated with green area loss in
residential areas:
 1. Residential-to-commercial land-use conversion along suburban arterial avenues; rapid

   contributed in fostering a burgeoning tertiary sector of the economy that
   accommodated along these busy corridors.
 2. Increase in automobile ownership; as result, ample planting strips and residential patios
   rapidly succumbed to driveway and carport constructions, on-street and sidewalk
   parking. Communities originally geared for working class families, with smaller lot size
   and narrower local streets, were especially vulnerable to green area loss due to the
   emergent transportation technology.
 3. Increase in low-rent housing units and density; as result, an increase in building
   footprint. Population succession, higher rental percentage, lower income levels,
   absentee owners, and higher poverty ratios in the older inner-ring neighborhoods
   indicate trends associated with neighborhood decline cycle.
 4. Cultural preferences also explain part of the explanatory variables associated to building
   footprint increase: new balconies, larger kitchens, larger bedrooms, new walk-in closets,
                                   ire some of the alterations to original
                                                                                                           V,t\i; m.
                                                                                                                  observ
                                                                                                                              eighborhoi
                                                   ^ K. in——"-ir-.-r;
                                                    5 *>~*&i.f'J*i*«  •-'•
                                                    i^fW>-''t?:'C
                                    I commercial
                                    | institutiona
                                    = residential
                                     Typical hyper-
                                     commercialized arterial
                                     avenue
                                                Typical local internal
                                                  residential street

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Quantifying Sustainability in  Puerto  Rico: A
Scientific Discussion
                                                   Appendix F
                           Preliminary Findings
                 The environmental and socio-economic trends identified by this study in older
                 inner-ring neighborhoods present an unsustainable process of neighborhood
                 decline with negative consequences to the local and surrounding socio-ecological
                 system.


                 From a public policy standpoint, these areas need to be addressed by government
                 in a proactive and comprehensive way as they represent substantial areas of the
                 built environment in San Juan City and the Rio Piedras watershed.


                 The strategic central location of older inner-ring suburbs within the metropolitan
                 area, their adjacency to the main arterial avenues and transport networks, their
                 proximity to central commercial/work/institutional destinations, their inherent
                 and latent urban design attributes (Ramos 2008), and the current decelerating real
                 estate valuation not only reveals the socio-economic underperformance of these
                 neighborhoods, but also the opportunity and their potential for evolving into more
                 sustainable human settlements through simultaneous physical redevelopment and
                 socio-economic revitalization programs in which lost green areas and
                 environmental services can be recuperated.
      Beyond San Juan ULTRA-EX:

               In-Depth Work

Increase the sampling of neighborhoods with
diverse socioeconomic and morphological-
typological characteristics so as to conduct
statistically significant studies.
Quantify loss of environmental services due to
suburban green area loss.
Perform statistical regression analysis
between socioeconomic variables and green
area loss ratios.
                   Neighborhood Unit
                      "Sector 74"
               ( Historic & Proposed Evolution]
                                                                                                             I
                                                                                                                                        .    -
                                                                                                          •I
                                                                                                       IMftlMH
                                                                                                       Existing Subdivision

                             Acknowledgements

            - National Science Foundation

            - US Forest Service, International Institute of Tropical Forestry

            - Fundacion Puertorriquena de Conservacion

            - University of Puerto Rico

            - Municipio de San Juan

            - Centre de Recaudacion de Ingresos Municipales (CRIM)
            - Centra Para Puerto Rico, Fundacion Sila M. Calderon
            - IGERT, Universidad de Puerto Rico
            - US Geological Survey
            - Archive General de Puerto Rico (AGPR)
            - Archive de Arquitectura y Construccion de Puerto Rico (AACPR)

-------
Appendix G

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Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto Rico: A
Scientific Discussion
                           Appendix G
             integrated ivianagemen
                Essential Component of
               Sustaining Coral Reefs and
                  Associated Fisheries

                      Richard S. Appeldoorn
                   Department of Marine Sciences
                 University of Puerto Rico - Mayaguez
                                                                    •isn ana neroivore Aounaance
                                                              40
                                                              35 -
                                                             t 30-
                                                             | 25 -
                                                             | 20 -
                                                             I 15 -
                                                             i_
                                                             a 10 -
                                                                     Decline with Turbidity
                                                               0.05     0.10
                  Trends in Turbidity
                             WT(m) = 811.74 - 0.4003*Year
                             r2 = .9725
           1993  1995
                       1999  2991  2993  2995  2997   2999   2911
                            Year
Enhances Productivity

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Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto Rico: A
Scientific Discussion
                                                Appendix G
           llilfhlllliilihilll
iUill  h!
           iliiih   infill    I

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Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto Rico: A
Scientific Discussion
                                                                      Appendix G
             Ecosystem
              Function
          •Settlement/Recruitment
          •Nursery Habitats
          •Connectivity
             •Nutrient/Biomass Flows
             •Feeding Migrations
             •Ontogenetic Migrations
          •Planktiovry
          •Herbivory
          •Production
          •Spawning sites
 Ecosyst
   Servic<
•Commercial Fisheries
•Recreational Fisheries
•Snorkeling/Diving
•Beach Sand Production
•Shoreline Prote
•Education
•Scientific Research
•Bio-active Compounds
•Passive Values
  •Hereditary V
  •Future Use
  •Existential V'
  •Biodiversity
                Identify Critical Habita
                               Frequency of Selection within MARXAN
                     Important Criteria
             Shoreline tc
             40km between selected areas for larval
             connectivity
             Replication of targets
                               Kesinence Kequires hirst principles
                                    for Fisheries Management

                               • Maintain Ecosystem Integrity
                                 - (Biodiversity conservation)
                               • Maintain ecosystem function
                               • Rigorously proieci habitat
                               • Protect water quality
                               • Precautionary approach
                               • Maintain reference points for monitoring
                               • Are limits to production
                                                                                                ppeldoom (2008)

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Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto Rico: A
Scientific Discussion
                    Management Tactics
             control areas (reference points for monitoring)
             protect spawning stocks, trophic structures, EFH
             control fishing effort
             herbivores (no entangling nets),
             predators (no spear guns),
             spawners (large mesh),
             habitat (no trawling)
                         (large mesh, traps with escape panels)
                       itar Coral Wai
                Episode  IV- A New Hope
                       '"'"^ershed Approaches
              - Jobos Bay
              - Guanica Bay
                >sion Control
             Biocriteria
             Marine Reserves
             Coastal and Marine Spatial Planning
                                      Appendix G
match ecosystem needs (corals, seagrass)
use spatial zoning as appropriate
                                                                    improve Environmental Impact Assessments (ElAs)
                                                                    Set rigid guidelines for exemptions & variances
      Management Tactics

-------
Appendix H

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Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto Rico: A
Scientific Discussion
                                              Appendix H
                                AN INTERDISCIPLINARY ERO
                            MITIGATION APPROACH FOR C(
                                           REEF PROTECT!
                              A CASE STUDY FROM THE EAS
                                                  CARIBI
                                                                               Agenda
a Project Background
a Objectives
  Methods
  Results, discussion and recommendations
  Conclusions
a Future projects
              Project Background
                Culebra is an island
                located approximately
                1 9 miles east of the
                main island of Puerto
                Rico
               : It supports coral reef
                ecosystems
                characteristic of
                northeastern Caribbean
                marine biodiversity, and
                they represent highly
                valuable sources of
                fishing, tourism and
                recreational activities
Project Background
a Coral reefs in the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico
  (PR) are among the most highly threatened reefs of
  the entire Caribbean as a consequence of the
  combined effects of climate change, coral
  bleaching, increased incidence of disease,
  overfishing, and the delivery of inland pollutants
  Reduction in 50 to 80% coral coverage since 1 997
  in Luis Pena Natural Reserve has been observed
              Objectives
              a To describe an innovative framework by which
                technical knowledge gathered by marine ecologists,
                watershed scientists, and civil/environmental
                engineers can be best employed in the
                development of an erosion mitigation strategy.
Methods
a Multi-Step Approach
    Step 1
      collecting the basic information to describe coral reef
      abundance and condition,
      estimating watershed-scale sediment loading rates, and
      evaluating the feasibility of on-site installation of erosion
      control measures

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Quantifying Sustainability in  Puerto Rico: A
Scientific Discussion
                                                  Appendix H
                Methods
                 Multi-Step Approach (cont.)

                 n Step 2
                   • formalize an approach to select the watersheds and
                     associated marine habitats that merit a preferred status for
                    ithe implementation of erosion control activities
                   • Considerations for assessing need for mitigation/protection
                        (1) resource abundance- the amount of surface prone for coral
                        reef growth and/or the abundance of particular coral species of
                        concern;
                        (2) resource condition- the observed condition of the coral reef
                        ecosystem; and
                        (3) stress level- sedimentation stress defined by annual sediment
                        yields
Methods
a Multi-Step Approach
    Step 3
     • choosing the specific sites (i.e., sediment sources) and
      methods to be implemented within the priority areas by
      invoking a sediment reduction cost-effectiveness analysis
                Methods
              Flowchart displaying
              the general scope of
              the proposed,
              interdisciplinary
              erosion mitigation
              strategy described
              here
Coral Reef Assessment
  Abundance of Coral Reef Habitats
    Based on its areal coverage, and relied upon pre-
    existing benthic habitat maps (NOAA-NOS)
    Sea bottom classified by the Habitat attribute (3rd tier):
      Coral reef and colonized hard-bottom
      Submerged aquatic vegetation
    • Unconsolidated Sediments
    • Others
                Coral  Reef Assessment
                  Structure and Condition
                    Modified Rogers et al. Protocol (1994)
                    Data was obtained at depths typically ranging from 3
                    to 7 m
                    Data used for this study included percent cover of
                    benthic components:
                      live coral, macroalgae, algal turf, crustose coralline algae
                      (CCA), and cyanobacteria
                      These also allowed calculations of live coral to algal  ratios
                      as well as coral to cyanobaterial ratios
Watershed Assessment
a The unpaved road network in Culebra is considered
  to be overall the island's most important
  anthropogenic source of sediment

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Quantifying Sustainability in  Puerto Rico: A
Scientific  Discussion
                                                 Appendix H
               Watershed Assessment
               a Erosion and sediment yield assessments relied upon
                 application of the STJ-EROS model
               a STJ-EROS estimates erosion rates from both natural and
                 anthropogenic sources of sediment based on empirical
                 equations developed from data collected on St. John
                 (USVI), an island with a similar physical setting as
                 Culebra
                 Unpaved roads on Culebra were found to be similar to
                 those from which the STJ-EROS road erosion algorithms
                 were developed in terms of substrate, road prism
                 geometry, and range of slopes.
Watershed Assessment
  The eight watersheds of interest covered a total area of 6.8 km2 or about a
  quarter of the total landmass of Culebra. Individual watersheds ranged in drainage
  areas from 9.1 ha at Punta Soldado (PSO) to 274 ha at Puerto Del Manglar (PDM)
                              E af AIM of Anawilh
                               with High  Moderate  !
                                SUKfM  SDKfM
                  Punla boldado [J50)
                  Lnswtuda Malcna
                  (EMA)
                  Cayo OakiB (CD A)
                  Bahia Mosquito
                  (BMO)

                  (ERJ)
                  hierto Wt MflitRlar
                  (I'DM)
                  Ptava Larga jl'LA)
                  Flaw Ham (1*20)
               Best Management Practices
                 "...a variety of site planning, design, and construction
                 activities to minimize the production and transport of
                 sediments"
                 General limitations:
                 D an already existing and thus mostly immovable road
                   network layout;
                 D a characteristically rugged topography, and
                   a lack of locally available specialized materials and
                   equipment that significantly  increases costs and therefore
                   reduces the number of BMPs that would otherwise be
                   considered feasible
Best Management Practices
a Three main types of BMPs evaluated
    those methods that improve the resistance to erosion
    processes by preventing the direct contact of rain and
    runoff with the soil surface (Type I)
    minimize the amount of flow on the unpaved road
    surface and thus reduce its erosive energy
    Those that attempt to capture as much sediment as
    possible while runoff is transported through or
    discharged from the road prism (Type III)
               Best Management Practices
                 BMP selection in most cases is site specific and a combination
                 of these individual BMPs is usually the most effective
                 alternative. Therefore, we developed three general road
                 designs or treatments, each incorporating a different sub-set
                 of BMPs
                          l™d, v^^M  C»«J. EnOMt
                          tefc  4-.fr   -i—.  Or*
Prioritization Strategy
a Limitations
    coral reef condition assessments are based on a single,
    one-time observation
    erosion analyses explicitly lacks the capacity to
    understand sediment dynamics and effects once
    delivered to the marine environmentSite and BMP
    Selection

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Quantifying  Sustainability  in Puerto  Rico: A
Scientific Discussion
                                                     Appendix H
                Prioritization Strategy
               a Watershed Selection

                   The combined watershed and marine habitat evaluation
                   procedure presented here is based on three criteria:
                     (1) abundance of the marine resource,
                    • (2) marine resource condition, and
                    • (3) stress level

                   Each of the three criterion being considered for
                   analyses can be graphically portrayed as the axis of a
                   three-dimensional cube
   Prioritization  Strategy
Sediment stress level is displayed along
the x-horizontal axis from low to high
(left to right).
                          B
Resource abundance is graphed in the y-  c
vertical axis from low upwards to high   "^
abundance.                   3
                          ,Q

Resource condition lies along the z-depth
axis from good to poor (foreground to
background).
                                                                                                                 Sediment stress level
                Prioritization Strategy
               a Watershed Selection

                   The cube also serves to map the justification or goal of
                   erosion control activities being implemented.
                   Implementation of erosion mitigation strategies for coral
                   reef protection can be justified on the basis of three
                   main motives:
                     (1) Preservation,
                    • (2) Prevention, and
                     (3) Remediation
   Prioritization  Strategy
     Site & BMP Selection and Cost-Effectiveness
     Analysis

       cost-effectiveness may be defined by the total amount
       of funds spent installing BMPs relative to the amount of
       sediment that will no longer reach coastal waters (i.e.,
       sediment 'savings') as a result of their implementation
       cost-effectiveness for the case in Culebra will be
       described  in terms U.S. Dollars spent on BMPs per ton
       of sediment 'saved' ($ ton"1)
               Results,  Discussion and
               Recommendations
   Results, Discussion and
   Recommendations
                                                                                      Coral Reef Condition
                                                                                        Mean coral reef benthic
                                                                                        parameter values for the
                                                                                        eight study sites in Culebra.
                                                                                        From top: A) Percent coral
                                                                                        cover of four of the most
                                                                                        sensitive Scleractinian coral
                                                                                        species (M. annulahs, M.
                                                                                        faveolata, A. palmata, A.
                                                                                        cerv/corn/s); B) Percent cover
                                                                                        of the four most important
                                                                                        algal functional groups:
                                                                                        macroalgae (Mac), turf,
                                                                                        crustose coralline algae
                                                                                        (CCA), and cyanobacteria
                                                                                        (Cya).

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Quantifying Sustainability in  Puerto Rico: A
Scientific Discussion
                                                Appendix H
               Results, Discussion and
               Recommendations
             a Coral Reef Condition
                 'Cora/: algal' ratios and
                 'crusfose coralline algae
                 (CCA) : algal' ratios across
                 the eight study sites in
                 Culebra
Results, Discussion and
Recommendations
                                                                                                             Watershed Assessment
Results, Discussion and
Recommendations
a
1*
]-

Watershed-Marine Habitat Selection
MM
•5gj

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Quantifying Sustainability in  Puerto Rico:  A
Scientific  Discussion
                                                 Appendix H
                                                                                     Results, Discussion and
                                                                                     Recommendations
                                                                                    aSite  and  BMPs Selection
                                                                                        The RDM watershed was chosen as the target area for conducting cost-
                                                                                        effectiveness analyses because of its high sediment yield rates, its
                                                                                        relatively extensive unpaved road network, and the poor to moderate
                                                                                        condition of its adjacent marine resources.
                                                                                        Watershed Description:
                                                                                          9.4 km of unpaved roads, sub-divided into 104 individual road
                                                                                          segments which in total deliver 1 1 2 tons of sediment every year into
                                                                                          the receiving coastal waters
                                                                                        • The average road segment has a length of 90 m and a slope of 7%
                                                                                          with individual values ranging between 1 2 - 390 m and from 0% to
                                                                                          25%, respectively
                                                                                          Twenty-seven road segments individually contribute more than 0.82
                                                                                          tons yr1, which is the estimated background sediment yield level for
                                                                                          this watershed
               Results, Discussion and
               Recommendations
              a Cost-Effectiveness Analysis
Results, Discussion and
Recommendations
               Conclusions
              a The strategy serves in part to choose priority target
                watersheds for erosion control on the basis of the
                intentions of the mitigation efforts
              a The cost-effectiveness analyses aids in choosing specific
                sites and erosion control methods to maximize the net
                reductions in sediment loads while minimizing costs
              a Application of this cost-effectiveness analysis to one
                watershed in Culebra suggests that the choice of most
                effective erosion control method varies according  to the
                amount of funds available for implementation
                                                                                                                                                     6

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Appendix I

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Quantifying Sustainability in  Puerto Rico: A
Scientific Discussion
                                                   Appendix
                                                                                     Coral reefs
                                                                                      supported by a stable, BIOGEN1C calcium- carbonate framework
                                                                                      mainly produced by scleractinian

                                                                                       Very old and widely distribute.
                                                                                       Survived four, major extinction events in Earth s
                                                                                       evolutionary history (400 MY= resilient)
                                  Fine tissue layer makes a World
                                            of difference:
                > Coral reefs form 1/3 of the tropical coasts
                  • Deposit up to 2000 ton/ha/year ofCaCOS
                ' Influences chemical balance of oceans
                  • % of calcium entering oceans is fixed in coral reefs
                  • 700 billions kg of carbon (CO2) are fixed/absorbed every
                    year-Aid in sea water pH balance
                > Coastal protection and aid in formation of other important
                 communities: seagrasses - mangrove - sandy bottoms, etc.
                > Biodiversity reservoir
                > High productivity
                > Generation of local changes in coastal profiles and habitats
Coastal protection-development of human setlements
Source of protein and economic support for millions of
families  (9.000.000 ton/year in fisheries).
Stabilization of social structures  (family activities around
reefs)
Building materials
Pharmaceutical - medicine products
Education and recreation
Ecotourism -commercial and
family income
BUT..
                                              ,.: ., (lam Up ;!ildberget?I.(1999); n
                                                M2 100! :~-:!;Carpenter etgl. (2008)
                                           * • su'S >"• • '•'•••<•: - •'.'• I  •'••
                                                                                    What are we loosing:
                                                                                    •Capacity
                                                                                    •Capacityto fix
                                                                                    • Productivity
                                                                                    • Fecundity
                                                                                    • Biodiversity
                       • Artisanal fisheries
                       • Natural products   ;'
                   ». ,i* Family support and social structure-^
                     " -Coastalprotectioq,
                                                                                                            il balance   moving awav fro
                                                                                                         SUSTAirJABILITY   "  "  >   ,-

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Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto Rico: A
Scientific Discussion
                                                                              Appendix

             What is going on???
             What are the major threats to coral r
             and reef sustainability?    -  14
                                              t           gg^
                                      •       •'  /•     :      VJ.JK    V1  .   :
                                                                          >i: -\     '••   •;•   •    •
                                                                                         '• •«  *   ,   •   *? T:' "
                                                                         fCommon denominator to environmental problems
                 Sustainability" or Sustainable development
            While preserving the environment so that these needs can be met not only in the

             The ability to meet the needs of the present while contributing to the future
             generations' needs" . (Michael Thomas Needham)
            Sustainable development ties together concern for the carrying capacity of natural
            systems with the social challenges faced by humanity.
           Economic sustainability
-*•; Sociopolitical Sustainability
                       " Environmental sustainability
                                                   Increased [CO2]

                                                Global Climate Change
                                         ng
                                    jc^agcvuutrients)
                                    Anchoring — Groundings  .JjBMiR^^^fc^-
                                    Agriculture (pesticides)—
                                    Coral extraction"   f  -t^M
                                    Ofl chemical spills
                                                                    » DEGRADATION O|G
                                                                                                  *= NO SUSTAIN,

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Quantifying  Sustainability in Puerto  Rico: A

Scientific Discussion
Appendix
                                                                                      LOCAL CHANGES IN ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY



                                                                                                Water turbidity - Sedimentation - over time




                                                                                           Significant Decline in water transparency (m) in La Parguera, Puerto Rico over time.
            O  30-
                      Reef mean monthly sea-surface temperature - La Parguera
                          IIII.    .1T
                              Winter mean surface sea water temperatures
                   ,O


                     ff

                   ]  = 26'5J

                     s
                                     WARMER WINTERS
                     ...L	1	1,,,
                                                         Year
                  1998  1999 2000  2001  2002  2003  2004 2005  2006  2007 2008

                                                             Months/years

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Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto  Rico: A
Scientific Discussion
                                                     Appendix
               Temporal change in mean cover of corals, algae, sponge, and octocorals in
                               La Parguerafrom 1994-2010
                                        Year     (Weil Caricomp data-unpublished)
                                                                                    Impact of bleaching and diseases:

                                                                                    - Two intensive bleaching events affected 52 coral
                                                                                      species, 22 octocorals, 3 hydrocorals, 2 zoanthids and
                                                                                      3 sponges.

                                                                                    - Eleven biotic diseases affected 42 coral species, 5
                                                                                      octocorals, 2 hydrocorals, 3 zoanthids, 2 sponges and
                                                                                      at least 3 crustose coralline algae (CCA).

                                                                                    - Significant mortalities of corals and other important
                                                                                      members of the coral reef community. Loss of
                                                                                      habitat and productivity.
               Epizootic consequenc

                  Changes in coral community structure -function
                  • Replacement of dominant species - spp composition
                  • Change in abundances and distribution
                  • Reduction in live cover/biomass
                  • Reduction in Biodiversity
                  • Reduction in spatial heterogeneity/ habitats
                •* Reduction in productivity
                • Reduction in reproductive output - fitness
                • Evolutionary consequences ?

                • Social consequences?

                • Moving away from Sustainability
            IN THEORY
Not possible to reach Sustainability until local and global environmental
deterioration is controlled. Not possible to control these unless we involve ALL
STAKEHOLDERS in the process and control human population growth.
                     Reefs for the future? How? Where?
                                                                                     Final Remarks
               1 Improve environmental conditions
                    • Reduce stress factors, sedimentation, pollution,
                      fisheries
                      Reduce CO2 emissions, temperature stress
                Protect genetically diverse population
                buildingspecies = increase # and arel
                                 -w            *"-»  •
                                                 -
                                 t arid involvement of all stakeholders?
               \f.            .        *i. in,,..  -                *»".--'
    We have exceeded our capacity to feed, clothe and provide
    jobs and a decent standard of living for ourselves and future
    •uture global climate change can not be avoided and we can
    not predict the timing of those changes.

    New technologies are not the only answer, since they will
    always lag behind population growth. Future technology will
    be more important to our adaptation to climatic change-
    not to its prevention

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Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto Rico: A
Scientific Discussion
                                                                   Appendix
            We are all guilty as charg
            consuming.
g a live and
            These are our problems and for sustainable
            development  we all need to take responsibility
            -DO YOUR PART!     * -

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Appendix J

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Quantifying Sustainability in  Puerto Rico: A
Scientific Discussion
                                                                                         Appendix J
                  "ACHIEVABILITY" vs "SUSTAINABILITY":
                Including Community Acceptance Consideration in
                the Implementation of Renewable Energy Projects
                               in Puerto Rico.
                              Maria Perez-Ortiz, PhD
                              Cecilio Ortiz Garcia, PhD
                            Department of Social Sciences,
                   ITEAS (Tropical Institute of Energy, Environment & Society)
                          University of Puerto Rico-Mayagiiez
                                                                                               Objectives
                                          1.  What is "social acceptance" to renewable
                                             energy projects?
                                          2.  What are some of the most important findings
                                             of our research?
                                          3.  What is it's policy relevance?
                                          4.  What can policy makers do to move Puerto Rico
                                             towards sustainability, relative to my research?
                                          5.  What is necessary to implement my research
                                             island-wide?
               WHAT IS "SOCIAL ACCEPTANCE" TO
               RENEWABLE ENERGY PROJECTS?
                                                                                 The Paradigm Shift of Renewable
                                                                                                  Energy
                                           Green vs. renewable vs.
                                           sustainable
                                           Smaller scale and lower
                                           energy density
                                           Below the surface vs.
                                           above surface resource
                                           extraction
                                           More visibility of
                                           projects
                                           "Soft" factors, not
                                           technical, become
                                           decisive in sitting
                                           decisions.
                   What is Social  Acceptance?
            It is a set of
            socio-political,
            community
            and market
            characteristics
            that determine
            the social
            sustainability
            of renewable
            energy
            projects.
/      \
                                             Wiistenhagen etal. 2007
                                               Achievabable does NOT mean
                                                Acceptable... or Sustainable
                                       Parameters for achievability:           Parameters for acceptability:
                                           - Estimated availability and variability
                                           -The state ofthe technologiesused to
                                               harvest their energy
- Perception of procedural justice in the
       decision-making process
- Perception of equity in the distribution
 of costs and benefits associated with
             the project.
 - Perceived economic, environmental
      and aesthetic consequences

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Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto Rico: A
Scientific Discussion
                                                 Appendix J
                    Empirical  research  shows...
                30% of non-finalized wind farm projects in Europe
                are stopped due to lawsuits and public resistance
                (Azau, 2011)

                Community ownership models have a positive effect
                On the local acceptance (Fabian David Musall* and Onno Kuik. 2011)

                It is NOT related to knowledge or attitudes towards
                renewable energy technologies in the abstract.
              Sitting issues...
 Distrust - "Public trust (especially in the facility developer), early and
 continuous public involvement in the facility siting process, and an
 adaptive strategy that involves incorporating citizens' concerns into
 siting and operation decisions are associated with a higher likelihood of
 Siting success." (Ibitayo and Pijawka, 1998)

 Environmental Justice — "Latent feelings of inequity in the
 community can be heightened by a previous contamination incidents.
 The incidents can amplify perceptions of environmental risk and
 reinforce perceptions of distributional, procedural, and process
 inequities	We need to strengthen planning processes to involve
 environmental equity considerations." (Pijawka, 1998)
                           It is NOT NIMBY...
                 "Regarding community acceptance of wind power schemes,
                 the visual evaluation of the impact of wind power on the
                 values of the landscape is by far the most dominant factor in
                 explaining opposition or support." (Wolsink, 2006).

                 "Local opposition cannot be explained by the egotistical
                 motives of local residents. When the inclination to behave
                 according to (supposed) backyard motives is investigated, the
                 scale to measure this phenomenon appears to indicate
                 commitment to equity issues and fairness of decision-
                 making" (Wolsink, 2006).
WHAT ARE SOME OF THE MOST
IMPORTANT FINDINGS OF OUR
RESEARCH?
                           Our Methodology

                Survey to a sistematic random sample of 409
                residents older than 18, in 3 communities
                previously targeted for the sitting of a wind
                energy project.
                 - Vieques (n=157),
                 - Catano tl (n=81), Catano t2 (n=97)
                 - and Camuy (n=74).
                                                                                             Puwto Rico and U S Virflin Islands - 50 rn Wind Power

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Quantifying Sustainability in  Puerto Rico: A
Scientific Discussion
                                           Appendix J
             Stakeholder identification and analysis
      Knowledge and Attitudes

   The most recognized renewable energy
   sources are wind and solar.
                                                                           There is a positive bias towards solar
                                                                           energy. Participants think that the sun is
                                                                           the cheaper energy source, that is safer
                                                                           and the least polluting. It is perceived as
                                                                           the most viable for development in the
                                                                           Island as well in their community.
                       Procedural Justice
                The developer is responsible for informing the
                community. The communication should be structured in
                the form of community meetings, not public hearings.

                Community participation is very important, mostly at the
                early stages of project development.

                The community should be involved in the project's
                approval and in selecting the project's location.

                The community needs to have access to independent
                experts for a neutral perspective on the technology and
                the project.
         Distributional justice


   The community should be compensated if
   the project is approved against their will.


   Fair compensation schemes include:
    - discounts in the electric bill,
    - providing electricity to a local school or hospital,
    - or an activity that brings collective wellbeing.
                               Trust

              The majority voted in the general elections, but it
              has little impact on the community's wellbeing.

              Distrust in the current decision making processes,

              Doubt that the government and the private
              sector have the community's interests and needs
              in mind when proposing new infrastructure
              projects.
CATANO AS A REAL LIFE EXPERIMENT
(IN MORE WAYS THAN ONE...)

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Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto Rico: A
Scientific Discussion
                                                                        Appendix J
Knowledge about what kinds of energy
sources are renewable.
Source
Solar
Hydro
Wind
Biofiids
Geothermal
Hidrogen
Waves
Coal
Natural Gas
Petroleum
Nuclear
Before
82.5%
68.4%
64.9%
29.8%
22.8%
17.5%
15.8%
10.5%
10.5%
8.8%
3-5%
After
79.2%
73-3%
81.5%
30.3%
9-4%
6.7%
9-4%
6.7%
54-5%
6.5%
10%
Change
+
+ (Sig .03)
+
-
-
-
-
+ (Sig. 00)
-
+

                                                                       The community should sacrifice for the good of
                                                                                      all Puerto Rico
                                                                                                        Sig .01
               Perception about current decision-
                         making  process
            Politicians care about what
            people like me think
            Mi community always
            participate in the
            government's decisions
            that affect us directly
            Public hearings have an
            impact of government's
            desicions
            The opinion of my
            community is taken into
            account when deciding
            where to locate
            infraestructure projects.
20.9%*'

31.6%*
                              WHAT IS THE POLICY RELEVANCE OF
                              THE RESEARCH ON SOCIAL
                              ACCEPTANCE?
                     If we want SUCCESS...
                           SOCIAL ACCEPTABILITY
                                                TECHNICAL
                                               " ACHIEVABILITY
                           NON
                         FEASIBILITY
                              WHAT CAN POLICY
                              MAKERS DO TO
                              MOVE PUERTO RICO
                              TOWARDS
                              SUSTAINABILITY,
                              RELATIVE TO MY
                              RESEARCH ON
                              SOCIAL ACCEPTANCE
                              OF WIND TURBINES?

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Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto Rico: A
Scientific Discussion
                                                Appendix J
                            We propose...
               A Community Acceptance Index for Renewable
               Energy Projects at the community level (CAIREP).
                — Collect data on communities near identified
                  renewable energy resources.
                - To integrate social acceptance information with
                  renewable resources availability data into a map that
                  identifies communities that exhibit high achievability
                  and acceptability of renewable energy technologies.
                - To develop a policy "toolbox" for the successful
                  implementation of renewable energy projects in
                  Puerto Rico.
           Research Questions

   - Justice = How communities located where
    renewable resources can be extracted perceive
    current decision-making processes?

   - Equity = How is the distribution of costs and
    benefits associated to renewable energy projects
    perceived?

   - Impact = What are the perceived economic,
    environmental and aesthetic consequences of a
    renewable energy project in the targeted
    community?
                  Similar government initiatives to
                understand community acceptance:
              Projects, agencies and organizations
                 1. "Beyond Nimbyism: a multidisciplinary investigation of public engagement
                   with renewable energy technologies" by the UK Government's Economic
                   and Social Research Council at The University of Manchester.
                 2. "Create Acceptance" (Cultural influences on Renewable Energy Acceptance
                   and Tools for the development of communication strategies to promote
                   acceptance among key actor groups) by the European Union at the Energy
                   Research Centre of the Netherlands.
                 3. European Wind Energy Association
                 4. The International Energy Agency Implementing Agreement for Cooperation
                   in the Research, Development, and Deployment of Wind EnergSistems.
    Similar government initiatives to
  understand community acceptance:

Conferences and publications
   1. 54th Topical Expert Meeting on Social Acceptance of Wind Energy Projects,
     May 2007 at Luzerne, Switzerland
   2. llth World Wind Energy Conference & WWEC 2012 Fair "Community Power-
     Citizen's Power"
   3. "Living with a wind farm The public acceptance issue", Wind Directionsm Sept.
     2-11, Vol. 30/no. 4
   4. IEA Wind Task 28 Technical Report, 2010
               WHAT IS NECESSARY TO IMPLEMENT
               THE RESEARCH ON SOCIAL ACCEPTANCE
               ISLAND-WIDE?
                                                                                         But first, we have to ask ourselves...
  Can we really define "sustainability"?
  Can Puerto Rico "move" towards
  sustainability?
  Been non-policy experts, can we really talk
  about the policy relevance of OUR research?
  Can we really say what is necessary to
  implement our research island-wide that we
  haven't said already?

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Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto Rico: A
Scientific Discussion
              Sustainability
                 "Sustainable development is a term
                 that everyone likes, but nobody is
                 sure of what it means" (Daly, 1996).
                 The key is broad participation!

               "One of the fundamental prerequisites for the achievement of
                 sustainable development is broad public participation in
               decision-making. Furthermore, in the more specific context of
                environment and development, the need for new forms of
                   participation has emerged. This includes the need of
                  individuals, groups and organizations to participate in
                environmental impact assessment procedures and to know
                about and participate in decisions, particularly those which
              potentially affect the communities in which they live and work.
                Individuals, groups and organizations should have access to
              information relevant to environment and development held by
                national authorities, including information on products and
              activities that have or are likely to have a significant impact on
              the environment, and information on environmental protection
                                measures."

                      Chapter 23, Section III of the Agenda 21 ,1992 in Rio de Janeiro
                                               Appendix J
The Social  Dimension of Sustainability
        the property
        conflict
\IM
development
                                                                                                   /vrefltafcl* mil fair1    %
                                                                                                (luilalnable dvunlnpmlnIT)  ^^
                                  conflict
                                                                                                   (lie resource
                                                                                                     conflict
          Dr. Cecilio Ortiz Garcia, PhD
              Cecilio.ortiz@upr.edu

          Dr. Maria Perez-Lugo, PhD
              Marla.perez@upr.edu

          Department of Social Sciences
        University of Puerto Rico -Mayagiiez
              lteas.uprm.edu

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Appendix K

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                                                                                                   Previous Work
                   Puerto Rico, Renewable  Energy
                        Self-Sufficiency Roadmap
                                  White Paper Presentation
                    Puerto Rico Renewable Energy Self Sufficiency Committee
                                         August, 2011
                                                                                                     Various studies has shown that Puerto Rico has the resources necessary for energy self sufficiency. One of the
                                                                                                     most significant studies is the Puerto Rico Achievable Renewable Energy Targets (ARET), by the College of
                                                                                                     Engineering of the University of Puerto Rico, Mayagiiez Campus. ARET was sponsored by the Puerto Rico Energy
                                                                                                     Affairs Administration.
   As a society we have agreed in achieving, in 20 years
       - The production of all our electricity with local renewable resources.,
       - Maintain the price paid for electricity at the level of 2010 or lower.
       - Dramatically improve the Puerto Rico economy
       - Create thousands of new well-paid jobs.
  The basic premise of this work is that Puerto Rico has agreed, as a society, in achieving self sufficiency in the
  resources necessary to produce all our electricity needs, while keeping the price paid for electricity at 2010 levels or
  lower. This study also assumes that future political will and public policies will be aligned with the goal of energy
  self-sufficiency.
The location of the fossil fuel plants and the interconnection grid, was considered for sizing and placement of the
renewable energy systems proposed. The energy storage and grid stabilization capabilities of the present fossil fuel
burning facilities are assets in the implementation of large scale renewable energy systems.
Fossil Fuel Plants
                                                                                                  Renewable  Energy Transition
                  Today
                                                                Algae Oil   Seed Oil
                                                                                                                 17MMkWhr per Year
                                                                                                                  With Fossil Fuels
                                                          17MMkWhr per Year
                                                           With Biofuels and
                                                           Renewable Sources
  The present fossil fuel plants will be used as baseload power producers using diminishing amounts of fossil fuels as
  the efficiency and energy production systems are put in place. Longer term, the oil burning plants will be
  conditioned to burn 100% biofuels produced within the development area of Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands and the
  Dominican Republic.

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Renewable  Energy Sources Considered
   The total number of types of renewable energy sources considered is of 21 different types. Not considered were
   geothermal, tide and large scale hydro. The reason for this, was the lack of verifiable information in the actual
   amount of geothermal and tide resources, and space limitations associated with new large scale hydro facilities.
   Hydroelectric facilities were considered to be used mostly for frecuency control due to limitations in water availability.
A net 17% reduction in energy load requirements was projected as technically and economically feasible given the
experience with commercial, residential and industrial settings where energy efficiency improvements of over 25%
have been easily achieved. Energy efficiency replaces baseload energy production through lighting replacement, air
conditioning systems replacement and climatization of buildings and residences. An average energy efficiency
improvement of 17% is equivalent to the electricity that produces a 500MW facility.
                                                 Offshore Wind
                                                                                                                                                        Puerto Rico Renewable Energy Portfolio
                                                                                                                                                           Strategic Crops and Biomass
   Offshore wind represents the largest single potential source of renewable energy for Puerto Rico.  Even when the
   potential energy production capability at the shallow waters at the east coast of Puerto Rico is in the thousands of
   MW of effective capacity, the proposed  effective capacity would be of approximately 300MW,  enough to supply 10%
   of the projected Puerto Rico electrical energy demand.  Given the offshore capacity factor of 30% this represents
   wind farms of about 900MW of installed capacity.  This can be easily installed in just the Aguirre Offhore site.
The single largest source of energy will be from biomass harvesting and its use through biorefineries. A total of 400
MW of effective power, equivalent to 14% of the electrical energy requirement will be produced through biorefineries
that also produce electrical energy. The biorefineries will be able to produce electricity only or a combination of
biofuels or other byproducts.
                                      Puerto Rico Renewabte Eowgy Portfolio
                                         Pumped Water Storage Facilities
                                   Puerto Rico Renewable Energy Portfolio
                                        Resources and Facilities Map
   There are 8 pumped water storage facilities planned as part of the roadmap.  These are of different kinds and are
   also part of an emergency water storage infrastructure. Pumped water storage systems store energy by pumping
   water to an elevated reservoir. When needed, the water in the reservoir is allowed to flow through a hydraulic
   turbine. These systems add capacity in an intermittent way by storing excess energy produced by other sources. It
   adds up to instant capacity as required.
The combination of all the renewable systems add up to 2,925MW of effective power with a total production of
17,000 million of kWhr per year, this represents 100% of the electrical energy requirements projected, every year, for
the next 20 years.

-------
                                                                      Emerging Commercial/Workforce Development Sectors
                                                                                               Potential Employments SuERo;
                                                                                      Base - $2.ODD MM Annual savings, $50.ooo/employment
                                                                                                                          • 40,000 50.000
                                                                                                                          • 30,000 40,000
                                                                                                                          • .20,000 3Q,ooo
                                                                                                                          • 10.000-?O.OOO
                                                                                                                          • 0-10,000
    The investment required for all the renewable systems necessary for self sufficiency add up to S21,990 million.
    Variable energy production systems has the largest share of the investment with 63%, or S13.738 million, of all the
    investment required. The highest cost of the systems based in sun. wind and water is compensated by the fact that
    these systems do not need fuels for operation.
A key benefit from SuERo's implementation is the creation of both direct and indirect jobs.
These can range between 2,000 to 50,000 depending on the % of the savings that is used for
salaries and cash flow circulation of the savings. The latter will depend on the establishment of
supporting renewable energy industries on the island. See next transparencies.
Expanded Local Industries/Workforce Development:
Photovoltaic Panels
 Biorefinery Based Industry, Strategic Crops (6F)
                                                                                                                    700 million pounds
                                                                                                                       high value
                                                                                                                      products/year
                                                         $1/W
    The assembly of photovoltaic panels for local electricity consumption takes as a
    calculation basis 100 MW per year (the government guarantees purchasing 50
    MW/yr for the first five years @ breakeven costs). The unit price is $1/W. The
    projected annual sales are approximately $100 million dollars.
     Respuesta de  Representante de la Camara
                       jNos  queda
                   grande  Colucci!
               Acknowledgements
                                                                               This work was supported in  part by the U.S.
                                                                               Department   of  Education   under   grant
                                                                               84.031S   and   University  of  Puerto  Rico
                                                                               Mayaguez  campus.  Also  we would  like  to
                                                                               acknowledge  the  participation  at  several
                                                                               workshops  of   representatives  from  the
                                                                               commercial, academic, NGO and government
                                                                               sectors.
                                                                                                                 »   o/vra.


-------
Appendix L

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Quantifying Sustainability in  Puerto
Rico: A Scientific Discussion
                                            Appendix L
                Large-scale spread of vines and
                           Sustainability
                           Diana L. Delgado1
                            Carlo Res+repo1
                              Rafael Arce
                         'Department of Biology
                  University of Puerto Rico-Rfo Piedras
                                                                               Vine invasions around the World
                 i


        -
Rubber vine (C. grand/flora) in Australia
   Kudzu (P. montana) in
   Southeastern USA
                                                                                     Trumpet vine
                                                                                                     'a)\n Hawaii
                                                                               Increase in abundance of lianas in
                                                                                        tropical forests
                                                                               A Tree Hugger. with « Twist
                                                                                        •LAMJ. r»n»r» MCtan b
                   What is so special about vines?
             Functional group of plants
             represented in > 80 families

             Can be woody (lianas) or
             herbaceous

             Common characteristic: need
             of other structures for
             support

             Important for agricultural and
             ornamental uses
             Until recent years, vines had been mostly ignored in the
                               literature
                                                                                         Vine invasions
Factors favoring vine success
   •Rapid growth
   • Life strategy: structural
    parasites
   •Greater dispersal ability

Consequences
   •Alter landscape
    configuration
   •Possible loss of
    function and services
   •Infrastructure
    vulnerability

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Quantifying Sustainability in  Puerto
Rico: A Scientific Discussion
                                                                          Appendix L
             Vine invaded landscapes and Sustainability
            • Vine invaded landscapes can
             be seen as a new state of the
             system

            •Conversion to this new state
             can affect the delivery of
             certain ecosystem services,
             thus decreasing Sustainability

            • This new state can be very
             resilient
               Capacity to meet present needs without compromising the capacity of
                       future generations to meet their own needs
                                         Mapping vine patches:
                                 image processing and classification
                                                                                                              Land cover map
                                                                             2002 Satellite images
                                                                                (IKONOS)
                                                                                                           Accuracy assessment
                     Networks modeling invasions
             • Networks can be used to represent
              and measure connectivity

             • Spatially explicit networks provide
              information about the configuration
              of the network in the landscape

             • Tool use for management and
              conservation

             • Provides information about the
              resilience of the network
'
    ^
          I

         ll. 2009
• Nodes- represent a vine
         £ ~            C uster
 patch >100m2
• Edge- represent dispersal ,
 (100m) among patches
                                           Network analysis

                                                             Vine patch network
                            • Network Structure
                             • Node degree - number of vine patches connecting a
                              target node
                             • Clusters - groups of connected vine patches
                              Study Area
            •Complex mosaic of
             environmental conditions
            ' Diverse land uses
             • Dominated by second
               growth interspersed
               with old growth
               forests, agriculture,
               and urban areas

                                  Location and size of vine patches


                             • 780 vine patches
                             • Vine patches cover 14 km2
                              (8.2%)
                             • Land use under vine cover
                               • 49% in croplands
                               • 38% in forest
                               • 12% in pastures
                             • Larger patches on croplands fc/
                                                                                                                                       2

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Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto
Rico: A Scientific Discussion
                                           Appendix L
               Vine network node degree distribution
             • 289 isolated patches
             • 456 with 1-2 neighbors
             • 16 highly connected
             patches (4-6 connections)
                 Conclusions

• The landscape is dominated by small vine patches
• The majority of vine patches are over crop lands and
 these patches are larger than those in other landuses
                                                                         • The majority of vine patches has a small number of
                                                                          connections

                                                                         • The landscape is dominated by clusters of vine
                                                                          patches of a small size

                                                                         • Small number of vine species dominate in the use
                                                                          utility networks and can spread up to 41m.
               Vine network cluster size distribution
              • 534 clusters
              1 Range of cluster size:
                - 1 - 10 patches
             Acknowledgements

  Puerto Rico Louis Stokes Alliance for minority
  participation (PRLSAMP)
  David Manages
  Josimar Figueroa
  Juan Carlos Ortega
                       Vines presence on poles

            1 Vines present:
              • 113 poles (58%)
              • 101 lines (30%)

            1 Vine species included
              • Cissusverticilata(6\.%}  •. f.
              • Ipomoeaspp. (39%)

            • Vine extend on average llm  ^"^*"^
             (0.6m-41m, min-max)

-------
Appendix M

-------
Quantifying Sustainability in  Puerto  Rico: A
Scientific Discussion
                                              Appendix M
                      Tropical Coastal Sustainabilitv 101
                Lessons learned from the slippery road towards
              sustainable practices in PR under a climate of change
               CATEC
                               Edwin A. Hernandez-Delgado
                         'S':„-', Cii-'^.- i.j: Aiiplic-r! Iro.T^v ;.;;.> 1:1;-; & ~, ;.o"..e •••a.'.e-i.Cc-ra: we*
                               1=0 Box 233&CJ, San njan, PR OU931-^3^0
                                coralj;iac@yahoo.com
                 Objectives
                                                                                Sustainable coastal ecosystems in
                                                                                PR: To be or not to be?
Case studies from the Great
Northeastern Reserve, PR.

A sustainable community-based
alternative for coral reef ecosystem
management.

Recommendations.
           Lesson #1: Caribbean hurricane/storm frequency trends
                           Period: 1851 - 2010
                Copyright © 2011 Caribbean Hurricane Network. AH Rights Reserved
                               Center for Applied Tropical Ecology and
                                                                             Lesson #2: Changes in mean annual SST in Culebra (2003-2010)
              Changes in mean annual SST in PR (1980-2010)
  Lesson #3: Non-sustainable increase coastal
  urban development over the last six decades
                                                                              http://upr.academia.edu/EdwinHernandez

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Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto Rico: A
Scientific Discussion
                                              Appendix  M
                                                                                   Lesson#4: Increased frequency of localized extreme
                                                                                 rainfall events (i.e., March 29, 2012 - 20" rainfall/25 hr)
              Lesson #5: Potential indicators of non-sustainability in
                       socio-economic development in PR

              Old-style, non-participatory, top-down
              approaches.


              Significant permanent negative
              environmental impacts "for the sake of
              progress".


              Continued socio-economic degradation.


              Lax regulations.


              Non-sustainable operations.
Lesson #5: Indicators of non-sustainability in
     socio-economic development in PR
Decision-making processes with
significant conflicts of interests
and corruption.


Revenue leakage.


Construction is often envisioned
as the solution to economic
constriction.


Climate change impacts are not
yet recognized as a major
threat.
                Lesson #6: Dramatic chronic coastal water quality
               decline as a result of large scale development along
                        watersheds and along the coast
   Great Northeastern Reserve? Really???

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Quantifying Sustainability  in Puerto  Rico: A
Scientific Discussion
                                               Appendix M
              Lesson #7: Significant increase in fecal pollution
                      with increasing water turbidity
  Lesson #8: Chronic fecal pollution, turbidity and
             eutrophication kill corals!
                                                                                                                   z D-l=ad ••!. :.'. i;.'i'. }
                                                                                           http://upr.academia.edu/EdwinHernandez
              Lesson #9: GIS-based modeling shows impacts at sub-
               watershed level can significantly influence sewage
                             pollution gradients
Lesson #10: Major coral reef
decline over the last decades
accelerated by unprecedented
massive bleaching and coral
mortality
            Significant loss of reef-
            building coral species
         Community structure phase shifts
                                            SiteTime
                                             PCR2005
                                            f PFL2005
                                             CBT2005
                                            ^ DIA2005
                                             PLM2005
                                            j- PLT2005
                                             PCR2010
                                             PFL2010
                                             CBT2010
                                             DIA2010
                                            D PLT2010
                                             PLM2010

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Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto  Rico: A
Scientific Discussion
                                              Appendix M
                Lesson #11: Declining coral species richness
                               across GNER
                           ic-Of Lu,:; !.. Luci Or CSJ
                                         HED PFL-c PFL
   GNER: Declining % living coral cover
SA*,"
a
.,1,1,
i
i i,
i

                                                                                      Pic-ln Pic-Of Luq-ln Luq-Of CSJ  IRA  HED PFL-C PPL  PCR
                                                                                                    Site
                Lesson #12: Coral reefs in a road to slime?
Lesson #13: Significant long-term decline in M. annularis
    growth rates with increasing Fajardo River flow
                                                                                            Annual streamflow (cm)
                 Significant long-term decline in M. annularis
              calcification rates with increasing Fajardo River flow
Lesson #14: Demographic models of recurrent massive bleaching and
 mass mortalities in Montastraea annularis suggest rapid extinction

                                       ECOSPHERE
                                                                                         1/10 yr
                                                                                                           1/5 yr

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Quantifying Sustainability in  Puerto Rico: A
Scientific Discussion
                                                                                               Appendix  M
                Lesson #15: Significant fish biomass decline
                                (1997-2007)
                        n
1
                                                   Groupers (Serranidae)
Non-target fish biomass loss (1997-2007)
i
j 20°
nil
[Li

ai
,..
2007
,•11 m
Conservation
              What does changes in fish communities mean?
              Overall decline across different
              trophic groups suggest significant
              non-sustainable impacts across
              large spatial and temporal scales
              due to:
                • Fishing impacts.
                 Environmental degradation.
                • Large-scale coral mortality as a
                 result of climate change-related
                 impacts.

              An alternate community-based sustainable approach to
                            coral reef rehabilitation
              Sociedad Ambiente Marino, Coralations, Vegabajenos Impulsando Desarrollo
                        Ambiental Sustentable (VIDAS), UPR/CATEC
                                                    Lesson #16: Coral farming aimed at multi-
                                                            species reef rehabilitation

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Quantifying Sustainability  in  Puerto  Rico: A
Scientific  Discussion
                                                                                                                                                      Appendix M
                       Community-based  reef rehabilitation 101
                                   in a climate of change

               Restoration criteria      Benefits of community-based coral farming and ree
                                           rehabilitation in face of climate chan
                                Propagation and reintroduction of largely depleted coral species.
                                Increased coral density to foster the recovery of coral
                                reproduction at local scales and buffer the impact of reproductive
                                isolation (Allee effects).
                                Foster reef bio-construction by propagating and outplanting
                                rapid-growing ecosystem engineer coral species.
                                Help local coral reefs to increase accretion rates and adapt to
                                projected rapid sea level rise.
                                Rehabilitate benthic habitat structural complexity, which provides
                             | shelter to a myriad of reef demersal species.
                             Hhlelp replenish coral reef-associated biodiversity.
                                        Center for Applied Tropical Ecology and
Habitat structural
complexity
Biodiversity
         Community-based  reef rehabilitation 101
                      in a climate of change

Restoration     Benefits of community-based coral farming and reef rehabili
criteria                           in face of climate change
Ecological       Rehabilitate coral functional redundancy as fish nursery grounds by
functions       improving benthic habitat complexity.
Climate change  Rearing and propagation of high-temperature resistant, highly
adaptation      resilient, coral genetic clones with a higher ability to resist and
               recoverfrom massive bleaching events will help improve overall reef
               ecosystem's resilience to future bleaching events.
Reconstruction  Fosterthe seascape-level reconstruction of bomb-crate red,
of physically     physically demolished, and coral-depleted reefs, with the aim of
destroyed reef   fostering the rapid recovery of coral reef functions.
              Naturalness
              Dependency
        Community-based reef rehabilitation 101
                     in a climate of change
               Benefits of community-based coral farming and reef rehabilitation
                                 in face of climate change
              Whether a restored area is "one of a kind" (i.e., habitats of
              endangered or rare species).
              Significance across local, national and regional scales because of its
              unique biological features, ecological functions and improved
              con nect ivity va I ue.
              Degree to which the restored area  helps in the recovery of reef's
              naturalness or lack of disturbance or degradation.
              Degree to which a species or a group of species depend on a
              restored area. Degree to which an ecosystem depends on ecological
              processes occurring within the restored area. Enhanced ecological
              functions on local scales will benefit overall reef ecosystem
              functions.
                         Center for Applied Tropical Ecology and
                                                                                                            Community-based reef rehabilitation 101
                                                                                                                         in a climate of change
                                                                                                                   Benefits of community-based coral farming and reef rehabilitation
               Degree to which a restored area represents a habitat type,
               ecological process, biological community, geological feature or
               other natural characteristic, including the role as refuge for
              Jthreatened or rare species.
               Degree to which a restored area is a functional unit or an effective,
               self-sustaining ecological entity or is functioning as a biological
               corridor between adjacent reefs.
               Degree to which the productive processes within a restored area
               contribute benefits to adjacent reefs (i.e., fostering coral larval
               recruitment, fish spillover effects), to other reef species (i.e.,
               enhancing recruitment, shelter and/or feeding habitat), or to
               humans.
                       Community-based  reef rehabilitation 101
                                   in a climate of change

                   ration     Benefits of community-based coral farming and reef rehabilitation
                   ia                           in face of climate change
                             Degree to which a restored area is physically connected to other
                             areas or degree of connectivity between colonies of any given
                             species at other areas via surface currents. The rehabilitation of
                             critically-located coral reefs will foster increased gamete and larval
                             production of replenished coral species fostering potential higher
                             recolonization of "downstream" reefs.
                             Degree to which the restored area represents a restored
                             characteristic of the region or the degree to which the restored area
                             fills a gap in a network of protected areas from the regional or sub-
                             regional perspective.
                                                                                              Community-based reef rehabilitation  101
                                                                                                           in a climate of change
                                                                                      criteria
                                                                                      Services

               Benefits of community-based coral farming and reef rehab Nit a
                                 in face of climate change
               Increased coral densities will help to improve reef's greenhouse
               gases buffering role, it's natural breakwaterfunction, particularly
               during storm and hurricane swells, its natural pharmacy function
               (source of natural products of bio-medical significance), and will
               improve reef-based fisheries productivity. If reef rehabilitation is
               carried out within a no-take reserve, it will further foster larger
               fisheries productivity and a spillover effect favoring fisheries
               productivity across adjacent habitats open to fishing.

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Quantifying  Sustainability  in Puerto  Rico:  A
Scientific  Discussion
                                                     Appendix M
                   Community-based reef rehabilitation 101
                               in a climate of change
             Restoration     Benefits of community-based coral farming and reef rehabilitation
             criteria                       in face of climate change
             Socio-economic  Degree to which certain commercially-important species depend on
             benefits        a restored area. Degree to which a restored area plays an important
                          link to adjacent fisheries. Degree to which reef restoration will
                          impact the local economy in the longterm and improve existing or
                          potential value of an area to tourism activities. Degree to which reef
                          restoration fosters the recovery of reef-based fisheries, improving
                          catches on adjacent reefs, benefiting local artisanal fishers, and
                          improvingtheir livelihoods.
                          Reef rehabilitation provides a useful hands-on, transformative
             outreach       educational tool aimed at empowering local base-communities to
                       ^1 manage their coral reefs and carry out coral farming and reef
                          rehabilitation in face of projected climate change impacts.
          Final recommendations

Community-based integration into
all aspects of the process:
 - Discussion of problems.

 — Planning.

 - Decision-making.

 — Implementation.

 - Adaptation and revision.



Scientists have the responsibility of

translating technical knowledge

into "normal"  layman language.
                         Final recommendations
               To foster a sustainable
               development model in  PR there
               is still a need for the immediate
               adoption of adaptation policies
               to climate change impacts, with
               initiatives to:
                — Reduce the vulnerability of coastal
                  natural and human systems against
                  expected climate change effects.


                — Improve food security through
                  appropriate agricultural and
                  fisheries planning and
                  management.
          Final recommendations
There is a need for the
immediate adoption of
adaptation policies to climate
change impacts, with initiatives
to:


 — Improve water quality and
   availability through appropriate
   water resources management.

 — Improve support to planning and
   operations in the public health
   sector (i.e. environmental
   monitoring, epidemiological
   studies, early warning systems).
                 .• i ,i.-.,i ••
       e*pr«jwt»n "jdu i laaiili trim I
        *""*•  	'ColeonSloti cam
ffcCM
      mn
                         Final recommendations
               There is a need for the immediate
               adoption of adaptation policies to
               climate change impacts, with initiatives
               to:
                  Improve disaster risk management (i.e.,
                  siting of critical infrastructure, preparedness
                  and response to extreme events).


                  Prioritize capacity building of government
                  institutions, private sectors, and academia.


                  Ensure greater availability of, access to, and
                  use of climate services.
          Final recommendations
Review and modify existing international
policies of institutions such as World Bank,
UNEP, USAID, EU, etc. of considering PR as
a "developed nation", therefore excluding
the island of significant funding and other
resources directed towards capacity
building on:


 - Environmental and socio-economic
   sustainability.

 - Biodiversity conservation and management.

 — Agriculture and fisheries development and
   management.

 — Climate change adaptation.

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Quantifying Sustainability  in Puerto Rico: A
Scientific  Discussion
                                                    Appendix M
                         Final recommendations
               A moratorium in the PR
               government policy of fostering
               non-sustainable tourism and urban
               development across the coastal
               zone until an environmentally- and
               socio-economically sustainable
               strategy is implemented through:

                — A reviewed sound land use plan.

                - A climate change adaptation
                  st rategy.
                - The reincorporation of community-
                  based participatory processes.
         Final recommendations
All permit applications still
under consideration by
Commonwealth and Federal
government agencies,
should be reanalyzed under
more strict parameters to
ensure long-term
Sustainability, as well as
meaningful community-
based participation.
                         Final recommendations
              •  There is also a need to:
                 - E/im/notethe standard USEPA
                   policy of fostering 301h waivers to
                   PR regional sewage treatment
                   facilities.

                 - Establish a long-term coastal
                   water quality monitoring
                   program.

                 — Modify existing coastal WQ
                   microbiological standards in PR.

                 — Establish N and Pstandards.
         Final recommendations
Community-based coral farming and reef
restoration initiatives have resulted highly
successful on local scales to rehabilitate coral
ree/ecological functions and ecosystem
values.

They have also resulted in important hands-on
educational experiences that have fostered
paramount transformation on behaviors.

There is a need to expand the current scale of
community-based reef management efforts
by improvingfunding to foster improved
capacity building, training and education, and
new projects across different localities in PR.
|
                         Final recommendations
                There \sstillan opportunity to
                ensure that today's investment in
                coastal tourism and urban
                development will not compromise
                the availability and quality of
                resources for future generations.

                We still have a chance to use a
                precautionary approach in our
                investment in coastal development to
                minimize the risk and vulnerability
                against projected climate change-
                related impacts.

                But we need to switch from the
                current non-sustainable model to a
                sustainable alternative.
                                                                                                                                                              8

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Appendix N

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Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto Rico: A
Scientific Discussion
Appendix N
         Community-based efforts for the sustainable
         conservation and management of coral reefs
             t Vega Baja and Manati Puerto Rico

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Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto Rico: A
Scientific Discussion
Appendix N


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Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto Rico: A
Scientific  Discussion
Appendix N
          If we have all this papers, rules and orders from th~
          What happens with the enforcement???
          took them to Washington Depa
                    about the
          possibly the biggest A p alma fa reef in t

          The thing is that the only way to find real results is combining
          efforts.
                                 ' ' vith the academy, the scientific
          community and some agency members that believes in solidarity.

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Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto Rico: A
Scientific Discussion
Appendix N

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Appendix O

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Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto Rico: A
Scientific Discussion
                                        Appendix O
           CORALATIONS
           conserve • nurture • educate
             conservar • cuidar  • educar
                   www.coralations.org
                   Founded in Puerto Rico as non profit in 1995
                         Registered 501(c)3
                                                           TO CONSERVE
                                                           COASTAL CLEAN WATER ADVOCATES
CORAUtlou n. EPA: obtained court rullig ipgnd* Puc-rto Rico's «t«r q»l!«y
 •liidwds and forced I(i« impleBtitntioi of u utldtfragttloi policy.
CORALations watchdogs chronic illegal and / or unsustainable coastal development
 - and carries some of these actions through the courts.

[e.g. Vista Bahia, Posada del Coronel, Playa Clara and Proyecto Villa Mi Terruno )
                      isia ae uuieora
                 Puerto Rico Sustainability Microcosm?
                   7 X 3.5 with growing population
                                                                               CWOOE LUIS PBW

                                                                                    J

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Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto Rico: A
Scientific Discussion
                                                              Appendix O
         Posada del Coronel - builds road
in river bed...
         EPA site visit: January 11, 2007
         NPDES violation issued September 11, 2007
                                                            Costa Bonita Resort: Day of Grand Opening Regatta
                                                             Bienvenidos a la Reserva Natural
                                                                        R^v-Canal de Luis Pena
                                                               FIRST NO TAKE RESERVE DESIGNATED IN WATERS OF
                                                                            PUERTO RICO

                                                                PROPOSED BY LOCAL FISH ASSOCIATION IN 1981 -
                                                                           DESIGNATED 1999

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Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto Rico: A
Scientific Discussion
Appendix O
                                                                    Current Environmental Education Tracks
                                                                    -apart from researchers
                                                                    -focused on future stakehol
                                                                    -brochures, posters,
                                                                    -requires t
                                           LommrmsCDKAUUoiH /oil

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Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto Rico: A
Scientific Discussion
                                             Appendix O
                                    rt uji .tMhum m i| treailve commons 2011
                                                                     2) FISH HEALTH STUDY
                                                                     CURRENTLY EMPLOYING
                                                                     THREE LOCALYOUTH
          3}  NOAA Committed $70K for three
          years to train local heavy
          equipment O
                     IMMENDA
1) Land Clearing - remove policy gaps to prevent Jobbing of non-
discretional duties of oversight between agencies, (e.g. EQB
controls CES when DRNA issues land clearing permits.
                                                                    2) Restore enforcement and meaningful response time - (e.g.  v--
                                                                    federal agencies have only one or two,enforcement officers to
                                                                    cSVer eitice-US territory)  -— •'«•_/                 " _~
                                                                    3) Maximize limited financial, human ana temporal resources by
                                                                    making local employment a requirement in RFPs.


                                                                    4) Maximize limited financial, human and temporal resources by
                                                                    relying on your local scientists.
                                                                    5) Use GIS areal data to monitor coastal impacts. Provide these
                                                                    resources free to watchdogs.          cnm,am™*xiucoRt±a*>

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Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto Rico: A
Scientific Discussion
           8) PR needs to appoint a DA schoole.
           devoted only to environmental crime
           only.

           9) Abandon complex balanced fishery
           management legislation and work bottor
           up to create small MPAs with local
           communities.
                    Appendix O
10) Abandon top down
approaches - (e.g. forcing
local orgs to partner with big
NGO competitors)

11) Implement "Connected
Contractor  Oversight  Today
the science Is not dictating
RFP focus, connected
contractors are.

12) Listen to your economists
and social scientists  this Is
about behavioral changes...

13) Reward  don't Ignore
your fishermen when they step
up.

14) Consider management
alternatives In UXO clean up
for Vieaues  and Culebra.

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Appendix P

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Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto  Rico: A
Scientific Discussion
                                                                          Appendix P
              The Automated Remote Biodiversity
                       Monitoring Network
                                 utomate Remote
                                Biodiversity Monitoring
                                Network
            T. Mitchell Aide (Biology) and Carlos J. Corrada Bravo (Computer Science)

                        University of Puerto Rico - Rio Piedras
                              Quantifying sustainability in Puerto Rico

                              Research, management, and conservation communities need
                                     better long-term data for fauna	How?
                                      Typical
                               Lots of field biologists?
                               24 hours per day?
                               365 days per year?
                               Observer bias
                               No permanent record
  Automated data collection
Many sites
24 hours per day
365 days per year
No observer bias
Real-time
Open access
Permanent (verifiable) record
                     TEAM -
                                                                      Automated
                                                                      Technology
                                                                      • Wireless
                                                                               Remote       *         '        Network
                                                                                       Biodiversity Monitoring

                                                                     letwt
• Solar energy
• Difficult access

Birds
Amphibians
Bats
Fish
\
• Frequent
• Long-term
• Many sites
• Permanent record
                                                                                                              • Global
                                                                                                              • Cloud computing
                        Machine
                        learning
Automated species
  identification
                                                                                   Permanent stations
                                                                         El Verde, PR
                                                                                                            La Selva,
                                                                                                            Costa Rica

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Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto Rico: A
Scientific Discussion
                                 Appendix P
                                                                              Software - Dynamic Web page
                       Access to the recording archive
 Web based visualizer + tools
                Algorithm produces regions of interest (ROIs)
Automated species identification:
      species detection

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Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto Rico: A
Scientific Discussion
                                                                                              Appendix P
                       Species identification - results
                                                                         THE EFFECT OF ANTHROPOGENIC NOISE ON
                                                                             ANURANS AND BIRDS COMMUNITIES
                                                                                       IN PUERTO RICO
                                                                          Maria Isabel Herrera Monies
                                                                             Noise level
                                                                                             Songs overlap with low frequency traffic noise
                                                                                                      Karst forest
                                                                       BIRD SPECIES RICHNESS
                                                                                 p=0.013 •  p< 0.00
         1*^1
Daily activity patterns

      Traffic noise       Birds

                                                Anurans
           Monitoring rare species

Tink frog in Costa Rica      Puerto Rican Crested Toad
  Diasporus diastema        Bufo (Peltophryne) lemur
                                                                         Traditional census:   26 observations        Real-time species identification to
                                                                         ARBMON:    10,605 observations       reduce field technician travel expense

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Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto Rico: A
Scientific Discussion
Appendix P
                  Quantifying sustainability in

                        Puerto Rico
                                                                          Questions?
                                                                           sfa
                                                                            p>vHS\UON
                                                                            Automated Remote
                                                                            Biodiversity Monitoring
                                                                            Network
                                                                                                            4

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Appendix Q

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Quantifying Sustainability in  Puerto Rico: A
Scientific Discussion
                                                                                                                Appendix Q
              The  Distribution of Pollution and
              Environmental Justice in Puerto Rico
                                                                                Introduction
                                                                 This study attempts to understand environmental inequalities
                                                                  and health in Puerto Rico. We examine two related issues:
                                                                                > Pollution distribution
                                                                                  Environmental Gini Coefficient (Millimet and Slottje 2000)

                                                                                > Environmental justice (Maguire and Sheriff 2011)
                                                                                   • Visual displays (e.g., GIS)
                                                                                   • Summary statistics
                                                                                   • Regression analysis
                                                                                      To investigate a relationship between toxic releases and several
                                                                                    socioeconomic and demographic indicators;
               Data Description
               >Toxic Releases Inventory (TRI)
                    Releases to all media (air, land, water, underground)
                    Releases to air
                 •   Time: 2000-2008
                    Number of municipios (50)

               >Socioeconomic and demographic indicators
                    Data source: US Census website; American
                  Community Survey
                 •   Time: 2005-2008
                    Number of municipios (50)
20000000
18000000
3
| 8000000

Toxic Releases
2000-2008
-^releases to all media -^releases to air

Jv
x^



• m
m ft


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Distribution of Toxic Releases in Puerto
Rico
Environmental Gini Coefficient (Millimet and Slottje 2000)
       2cov(E,F)
  Lr =	

E'. per capita releases
F: cumulative distribution of per capita releases
p: mean value of per capita releases of all municipios
Cov. covariance

Gini is bounded within the interval (0,1); zero indicates perfect
 equality and one indicates perfect inequality.
                                                                                      Environmental Gini Coefficient
                                                                                                  2000-2008
                                                                                             -•-Gini-releases to all media -•"Gini-releases to air
                                                                                        2000   2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008

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Quantifying Sustainability in  Puerto Rico: A
Scientific Discussion
                                                                                                                    Appendix  Q
                  Environmental Justice in Puerto  Rico
                  >USEPA: EJ  is achieved when  everyone enjoys the same
                   degree of protection from environmental hazards and equal
                   access to the decision-making  process to have a healthy
                   environment  in which to live, learn, and work.
                  http://www.epa.aov/environmentaliustice/index.html
    :  'Summary of Socio-Demographic Indicators
    Indicator
    Race
Measurement
% of population which is white,
black, Asian and other Pacific, and
other Hispanic(non-Puerto Rican
such as Mexican, Cuban and other
Hispanic and Latino)
                                                               Population   Total population divided by the size  Positive
                                                               density      of each municipio
                                                                                               Poverty
                                                                                                      Expected sign
                                                                                                      % of nonwhite are
                                                                                                      expected to be positive
                                                                          % of population which lives below   Positive
                                                                          an acceptable poverty level
                                                                                               Education    % °f population which is a high    % of high school graduate
                                                                                                          school graduate or has a bachelor's is expected to be
                                                                                                          degree or higher               positive; % of bachelor's
                                                                                                                                     degree is expected to be
                                                                                                                                     negative
                 Indicator        Measurement               Expected sign
                 Housing rental     % of total housing units which is  Positive
                 status           renter occupied
                 Age
% of population which is under  Both percents are
14 or over 65               expected to be negative
                 Unemployment    % of civilian labor force which is  Positive
                                unemployed
                 Car ownership     % of workers over 16 driving    Negative
                                alone to work
    Model

ln(l + el) = fil + fl2wkite! + fl3black! + fiAasiani + fiCjotherhispanici + J36 popden;
+ fi-jpovertyi + fi^schoo^ + fl9college! + fiwrenti + fillunder\4i + fiuover65i
+ Pl3unemployedi + plAvehiclei + St + s!

 > Data: 2005-2008, 50 municipios

 > Econometric methodology
      Quantile regression approach
      Ordinary least squares (OLS); Tobit

 > Main results (quantile regression results)
Releases to all media (per
capita)
White (%)
Black (%)
Asian or other Pacific (%)
Other Hispanic or Latino (%)
Population density
Poverty
School
College
Rent
Under14
OveroS
Unemployed
Vehicle
Pseudo R2
^ F-test (Equality)
Number of Obs.
0.2 quintile
0.193
-0.323
14.932
10.360™
-0.0002™
-0.874
2.206*
-2.812"
0.661
-6.341"
-8.257"
0.600
-0.683
0.06
0.4 quintile
0.848
-0.565
52.113*
10.388"
-0.0002™
-1 .053
4.348*
-3.863
1.401
-7.571
-11.299*
1.252
-0.865
0.12
0.6 quintile
1.504
0.924
48.189
4.343
-0.0002
1.657
8.999
-4.995
1.511
-18.152
-16.486
3.589
-0.865
0.17
0.8 quintile
-1.920
-3.272*
36.230
26.244™
-0.0006™
5.443
19.988"
-16.952™
-9.767*
-50.239™
-27.475*
7.546"
-13.102™
0.38
1 .81 (0.005)


166

Releases to air (per capita)
White (%)
Black (%)
Asian or other Pacific (%)
Other Hispanic or Latino (%)
Population density
Poverty
School
College
Rent
Under! 4
Over65
Unemployed
Vehicle
Pseudo R2
| F-test (Equality)
Number of Obs.
0.2 quintile
0.063
-0.115
5.244
4.045
-0.00007
-0.409
0.845
-1.151
0.307
-2.901
-3.027
0.082
-0.267
0.04
0.4 quintile
0.453
-0.198
23.543
9.476"
-0.0002*
-0.812
3.038
-3.091
1.264
-6.587
-8.735*
1.211
0.265
0.09
0.6 quintile
-0.149
1.242
47.994
3.344
-0.00008
1.463
6.160
-3.954
1.505
-19.745*
-16.900
3.298*
2.000
0.15
0.8 quintile
-1.133
-0.421
44.033
11.238
-0.0005"
8.040"
20.176"
-10.356*
-5.189
-42.847™
-26.830*
4.695
-10.364"
0.35
1.56(0.03)


168


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Quantifying Sustainability  in Puerto Rico:  A
Scientific  Discussion
                                                     Appendix Q
                 Sensitivity analysis
                 > Income variables:
                   • per capita income, average weekly wage

                 > Results:
                   • Income differentials are not strongly related to
                    releases in Puerto Rico (Carruthers 2008).
  Summary
>l_arge estimates of Environmental Gini coefficient (close to 1)
 imply that toxic releases are unequally distributed in Puerto
 Rico, but inequality is not getting larger over 2000-2008.

indicators of non-white population, population density,
 education, age, unemployment and car-ownership all have
 clear and significant relationships with toxic releases.

>To policy makers, a focus on education and unemployment is
 important because both indicators are clearly and strongly
 related to toxic releases.
                                                                                     -
                 References
                 • Carruthers, D. 2008. Environmental Justice in Latin America:  Problems,
                  Promise, and Practice. Massachusetts Institute of Technology,
                  Cambridge, MA.

                 • Maguire, K., and G. Sheriff. 2011. Comparing Distributions of
                  Environmental Outcomes for Regulatory Environmental Justice Analysis.
                  International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health,
                  2011-8: 1707-1726.

                 • Millimet, D.L. and D. Slottje. 2000. The Distribution of Pollution in the US:
                  An Environmental Gini Approach. Southern Methodist University,
                  Department of Economics Working Papers No. 002

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Appendix R

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Quantifying Sustainability in  Puerto
Rico: A Scientific  Discussion
                                                                                                                   Appendix R
                                                                                   Research
               Comprehensive Vulnerability
               Management: Understanding Social
               Vulnerability to Disasters in Puerto Rico
                                 Jenniffer M. Santos Hernandez, MA, PhD Candidate
                                     Department of Sociology and Criminal Justice
                                                      niversity of Delaware
                                                                                    Main Research Projects
                                                                                    Graduate Research Fellowship
                 What is particular about the
                 context of Puerto Rico?
                Because of Puerto Rico's topography, climatology, and geographic location,
                weather events are very probable. In addition, changing weather patterns
                have been observed. Those event have often led to disasters.

                Demographic and economic research shows that the development policies
                implemented in Puerto Rico did not or partially succeed (Rivera-Batiz&
                Santiago, 1996; Dietz, 2004)

                The industrial sector is declined and is argued that Puerto Rico has
                transitioned into a service economy. However, employment opportunities in
                the emerging sector are different and often less profitable than the ones
                vanishing (AFameda, 2000).

                To absorb the increasing unemployment, the public sector became the
                largest employer.

                All in all, Puerto Rico has been a laboratory for many social policies.
                                                                  Physical Vulnerability
                                                                                   Physical Vulnerability in Puerto Rico
                                                                     Inadequate planning and zoning has lead to a large increase in the number
                                                                     of persons living in areas susceptible to storm surge, tsunami and flooding.

                                                                        Over a million people in Puerto Rico reside in areas susceptible to flooding

                                                                     Governmental policy has also contributed to increasing physical
                                                                     vulnerability by allowing high-rise construction projects along coastal
                                                                     areas and by locating critical infrastructure in known at risk areas.

                                                                                         Afiasco, 1996
                                                                                                                       Afiasco, 2000
              Why study Development?
                 P:
                 fr<
  ?nartya Sen (1999):
 evelopment is... a process that enables
 eedom (1999:36)."
Development often leads to vulnerability
(Lewis, 1999)
Sustainable Development and Disasters
 the capacity to tolerate and overcome
damage, diminished productivity, and
reduced quality oflife, from an extreme
everit without significant outside assistance
(Miletti, 1999:4)
Disasters are social proces:  ,
,..,-. ;i .,.,.« '-""-img vylnerajDility as an issue
                    'differential
38) and frami   	
:apital accumulation afford^ a
                    'liver-Smith,
opportunity to understanc
impact and consequences
                                                                  Why Comprehensive Management?
                                                                                      Comprehensive Vulnerability Management can
                                                                                      be defined as "holistic integrated activities
                                                                                      directed toward the reduction of emergencies
                                                                                      and disasters by diminishing risk and
                                                                                      susceptibility and building of resistance and
                                                                                      resilience" (McEntire, Fuller, Johnston, and
                                                                                      Weber, 2002).
                                                                                      •  Continual assessment to reduce all types of disaster
                                                                                        vulnerability
                                                                                        A focus on how emergency management
                                                                                        organizations reduce liabilities and increase capacities

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Quantifying  Sustainability in Puerto
Rico:  A Scientific Discussion
                                                         Appendix  R
                Why focus on vulnerability?
                   Disasters are "processes involving the combination of a potentially
                   destructive agent(s) from the natural, modified, and/or
                   constructed environment and a population in a socially and
                   economically produced condition of vulnerability, resulting in a
                   perceived disruption of the customary relative satisfaction of
                   individual and social needs for physical survival, social order, and
                   meaning." (Oliver-Smith, 1998)

                   Vulnerability is often defined as "the characteristics of agroup and
                   their situation that influence their capacity to anticipate, cope with,
                   resist, and recover from the impact of a natural hazard; an extreme
                   natural event or process. "(Wisneretal., 2004:11)

                   "vulnerability... involves the totality of relationships in a given
                   social situation producing a set of conditions that render a society
                   unable to absorb the impacts of natural or social agents without
                   significant disruption of its capacity to fulfill the basic needs of its
                   members."  (Oliver-Smith, 2009)
                          MA Work:
      Social Vulnerability to Coastal Hazards
"A basic need in responding to disasters is to know the characteristics of the population

 Research Questions 2   resM>"9 '" affected areas-"'

 • How has vulnerability to disasters in Puerto Rico changed from 1990 to 2000?
 • What geographic areas present a higher level of social vulnerability?
 Methodology: Additive Model


    % VAR X= ((X*XPopulaflon) x 1,00)

    Recode % VAR X (RVAR) j = : BE i


 Social Vulnerability Index = RVAR, + RVAR2
 +RVAR3 + RVAR4 + RVAR5 + RVAR6 + RVAR7 +
 RVAR8 + RVAR9 + RVAR10 + RVAR,,
                                        Variables examined 1990-2000:
                Social Vulnerability  Research
                              Overview of the Findings:

                                While populatic
                                            ?siding in
                                                  ;xposed areas increased from 1990 to zc
                                                  ojlnerability indicators is observed.This
                                about izwi, a decline in most vulnerability indicators is observed. I his
                                finding may also raise Questions on the use of demographic indicators only
                                to assess social vulnerability.

                                High vulnerability is characteristic of deindustrialized areas.

                                This research suggest the need to develop emergency preparedness and
                                response plans that attend the needs of a changing population with
                                relatively high levels of vulnerability.

                                Our research also reveals the need to plan ahead and prepare to meet the
                                needs of those with disabilities and of an increasingly elder population
                                residing in areas exposed to hazards such as storm surge and tsunamis
                                (e.g. evacuation and shelter).

                                Despite the decline invulnerability indicators, such as poverty and low
                                education, they remain quite high, particularly in comparison to the United
                                States.
  Findings: Population Estimates for
  Tsunami Prone Areas
                 Puerto Rico's West  Coast
                    Percentage of Population Potentially Endangered
                      Vteighted by Proportion of the Block at Risk
Puerto Rico's West Coast: Average Social
Vulnerability Indicators for Block Groups Exposed to
Storm Surge Flooding from 1990 to 2000


WEST COAST
Social Vulnerability Indicators
Population i-e!,-- P verty
Renter Occupied Housing Units
Populations Lo^h-JucjLi.n
Female Headed Households w/ Children
'.•-.-.-,., ,,-!
Populates under If
Population abo^ 65
Population -./Disabilities
HUw/novehide
1 iU ••:><-.., phone
-••-.o.j, '".-0. -,.'... •;;.
Exposed
1990
61.0%
33.3%
34.4%
19.0%
22.1%
29.8%
12.8%
24.9%
34.3%
37.2%
22.6
Not Exposed
1990
67.3%
31.9%
t>u. r/o
16.8%
23.0%
33.0%
9.7%
26.1%
35.1%
44.6%
23.6
Exposed
2000
52.6%
35.0%
43. Z"/o
19.8%
23.8%
25.5%
14.2%
31.8%
33.2%
27.1%
21.4
Not Exposed 1
ZOOO
56.2% |
27,o/.
4y.zyo
18.8%
24.4%
28.2%
11.3%
31.5%
30.0%
27.5%
21.2

                                                                                                                                                                       2

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Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto
Rico: A Scientific Discussion
                                                                                      Appendix  R
                 Disaster Decision Support Tool (DDST)
                        www.udel.edu/DRC/DDST
                  "Geospatial data and tools should be an essential part of all aspects of
                                emergency management."'
                               .«_^.^_^^^_  Spatial Information includes:
                                                 Vector Layers
           Objectives

           •  Disseminate maps and
              research findings to the
              end-user community
              Develop a scalable risk and
              disaster-related geographic
              information platform
              Provide end users with no
              GIS training or access to GIS
              software with geographic
              information products that
              they can consume and
              incorporate into their
              decision-making in a no cost
              and considerably easier
              online application.
                                       PhD Work: Emergency
                                       Management and Disaster Policy
                                         Topic: Disaster Policy and Emergency Management in Puerto Rico

                                           Theoretical Approach: Max Weber-The emergence of bureaucracy
                                           and increasing rationalization


                                         Research Questions

                                           How is the governance of disasters and emergencies shared in Puerto
                                           Rico?
                                             What are the legal mechanisms supporting emergency management in Puerto
                                             Rico and how they emerged?
                                             What is the structure of the emergency management organization in Puerto
                                             Rico?
                                           • How does the current organizational structure of Puerto Rico's shape
                                             preparedness efforts?
                                           • What disaster reduction policies are in place and what are some of the
                                             challenges they confront?
                                           • Howthe existing organizational features affect social vulnerability to disasters?
             Emergency Management and
             Disaster Policy
               In-depth interviews with emergency
               managers at all levels and NWS
               personnel.
               Our research highlights important
               differences in terms of the role of
               emergency managers, the levels of
               training, access, preferences, use of
               information sources, and in the
               organizational features of the State
               Emergency Management Agency
               (AEMEAD).
                                       Preliminary Findings
                                         Shared conventions, expectations, and
                                         cultural concerns are brought to bear
                                         when making decisions (Douglas,
                                         1992)
                                                                                                                   Origen de Recursos, 2002
                                                                        Origen de Recursos, 2010
              Case Study: Dorado, Puerto Rico
                 Dorado, Puerto Rico
Precipitation Event -
May 31, 2010

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Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto
Rico: A Scientific Discussion
                                            Appendix R
             Preliminary Findings
             Themes:
              Transportation systems and changes in land

              Changes in energy production, storage, and
              distribution
             • Soil changes
Concluding Remarks
               Community adaptations
               Drugs and violence
               Long standing history of environmental and
               health issues (e.g. air and waterways pollutior
               respiratory, skin, and cancer prevalence,
               among others)
               Concerns about unknown risks
               Multiple leaders and conflicting messages
             The CAPECO explosion illustrates the pre-
             existing vulnerability in the region.
                          Questions
                                                                                                                                  4

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Appendix S

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Quantifying Sustainability in  Puerto  Rico: A
Scientific Discussion
                                                     Appendix S
                  Quantifying Sustainability in Puerto
                       Rico - A Scientific Discussion

                                     Workshop
                                    7 June 2012
Outline

• Recap: 2-day Symposium
• Recap: Facilitated Session
• Questions for decision makers
• Coordinated Research Agenda
               Recap:  2-day Symposium
               • Objectives
                  - Discuss issues pertinent to Sustainability in Puerto Rico
                  — Discover what researchers are currently studying in Puerto Rico
                    related to Sustainability and how that research can affect or help
                    decision makers
                     • Initiate a dialogue between researchers working on the Puerto
                       Rico System
                  - Learn how EPAORD research goals can be enhanced and applied in
                    collaboration with research described above
                  — Plan coordinated research program and implementation of activities
                    to move Puerto Rico towards a more sustainable future
What did we learn?
• Scientists had different visions, perspectives, research, and
  information
• Recognize data are missing, but need to emphasize critical
  data gaps
• Data need to be centralized, categorized in terms of quality,
  and made more readily available
• Need to increase representation: all interested parties need a
  voice
• Based on participation, Sustainability research is well
  established in Puerto Rico: only a very small subset was
  represented here
• Lack of communication about Sustainability research in Puerto
  Rico both on and off island
               What did we learn?


               • Lack of cohesive collaborative effort in the Sustainability
                 community
               • Many frameworks for studying Sustainability: which one(s) is
                 the right one for Puerto Rico?
               • Lack of social scientist perspective
               • Participants think Puerto Rico needs a clear vision for the
                 long-term
                  - Need to figure out where we a re in terms of Sustainability and then
                    determine where we want to go
               • Opportunities for data sharing and collaboration became
                 obvious
What did we learn?


• Symposium created a missing forum for scientific discussion
• Organized discussions need to continue
• This symposium/workshop is a first step, not a final answer
• Scientists need to translate information to make it accessible
  to everyone (policy makers, others disciplines, public,
  communities, etc.)
• ORD's research will provide a tool to show if Puerto Rico is
  moving toward or away from Sustainability
   - Given limitations and decision maker needs, research opportunities
     need to be identified to enhance decision making

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Quantifying  Sustainability  in Puerto  Rico:  A
Scientific  Discussion
                                                      Appendix S
               Messages
               •  Need to come up with a vision for Puerto Rico and establish
                  goals
                  — e.g., what does Puerto Rico want to achieve, can scenarios reveal how
                    to get there
                  — Must include social, economic, and environmental goals
               •  Has to be a bottom-up approach (everyone needs to
                  participate)
               •  Data issues need to be addressed
Messages
  Collaborative efforts, partnerships, and alliances are needed
  (opportunities exist)
   — Leverage dwindling resources
   - Enhance knowledge base
   — Transdisciplinary approach
  Research community needs to start thinking issue-based
  rather than discipline based
  Need to be better organized as a research community
  Sustainability needs to be addressed with short, medium, and
  long term goals
  Commitment needed at all levels of government
               Request
               • Task force
                  - Establish tangible action items with timelines
                  — Organize future similar events
                  - Identify key participants
                      • Ensure transdisciplinary approach
                  - Other action items to be determined
                  — Must be held accountable
Questions for decision  makers

• Does it make sense to establish a task force and is it
  compatible with Law 267 2004?
• Can you commit to a task force and is it possible to make it
  self-sustaining?
• Is a task force the best way to support and grow this type of
  collaborative effort?
• Do you agree with the task force action items listed? What
  other action items should be part of the task force?
• Who should be represented on the task force?
• Who should take the lead?
               Questions for decision makers


               •  Does Puerto Rico have a stated vision for its Sustainability?
                  — If not, is one under consideration?  Should the vision building process
                    be external to the research effort?
                  — If so, is there a reevaluation process?
               •  A research agenda needs to be established in collaboration
                  with decision makers
                  - What information do you need to consider to move forward with such
                    an agenda?
                  — What do researchers need to knowto have a successful collaborative
                    effort with decision makers?
                    Next Steps

  Proceedings of the symposium/workshop
  Solidify collaborations
  Establish a portal for researchers working in Puerto Rico
  Scientifically-sound strategy for sustainable environmental
  management in  Puerto Rico
  Publish publicly-available and easily understood information
  for use by decision makers and public

-------