Light-Duty Automotive Technology,
Carbon Dioxide Emissions, and
Fuel Economy Trends:
1975 Through 2013
Executive
xvEPAi
United States
Environmental Protection
k Agency
EPA-420-S-13-002 December 2013
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• ••
Summary
INTRODUCTION
This report is the authoritative reference for carbon dioxide (COJ emissions, fuel economy,
and powertrain technology trends for new personal vehicles in the United States. The
detailed data supporting this report were obtained by the U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency (EPA), directly from automobile manufacturers, to support implementation ofEPA's
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the U.S. Department of Transportation National
Highway Traffic Safety Administration's (NHTSA) Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE)
programs. These data have been collected and rigorously maintained by EPA since 1975,
and comprise the most comprehensive and authoritative database of its kind.
Since 1975, this report (often referred to as the "Trends" report) has been published annually
and covers new personal vehicles, including all passenger cars, sport utility vehicles, mini-
vans, and all but the largest pickup trucks and vans. This report supersedes, and should not
be compared to, all previous Trends reports because major methodological changes are
propagated backwards through the historical database in order to maintain the integrity of
long-term trends.
All of the tailpipe CO2 emissions and fuel economy values in this Executive Summary are
adjusted 5-cycle values which reflect urban commuting, rural highway, high speed/high
acceleration, high temperature/air conditioning, and cold temperature operation. These
adjusted values are very similar to new car Fuel Economy and Environment Labels and when
aggregated on afleetwide basis, yield EPA's best estimate of nationwide "real world" CO2
emissions and fuel consumption, but are not comparable to the values submitted by auto-
makers for standards compliance. Adjusted CO2 emissions values are significantly higher
than, and adjusted fuel economy values are significantly lower than, the unadjusted,
laboratory 2-cycle values that form the basis for automaker compliance with EPA CO2
emissions standards (which began in model year 2012) and NHTSA CAFE standards (which
have been in place since model year 1978).
In early 2014, EPA intends to publish a separate, annual GHG Report at epa.gov/otaq/regs/
Id-hwy/greenhouse/ld-ghg.htm that will summarize individual manufacturer performance
toward meeting the MY 2012 GHG emissions standards. NHTSA at nhtsa.dot.gov/fuel-economy
also publishes a separate document summarizing automaker compliance with fuel economy
standards entitled, "Summary of Fuel Economy Performance." NHTSA will prepare an updated
report after EPA provides NHTSA with complete and final data through MY 2012. At the time
of publication, EPA is in the process of submitting final manufacturer-specific CAFE values to
NHTSA and the manufacturers.
The Trends report has been extensively rewritten this year and includes new sections and
many new tables and figures. While this summary includes the most important highlights
of the report, the reader is encouraged to consult the full report for more depth. The full
report, as well as the appendices, is available at epa.gov/otaq/fetrends.htm.
The following Highlights summarize the most important conclusions of this report.
ES2 ^
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Average vehicle CO2 emissions rate and fuel economy achieved
record levels in MY 2012, and have improved in 7 of the last 8 years
The final model year (MY) 2012 adjusted, real world CO2 emissions rate is 376 g/mi, which
is a 22 g/mi decrease relative to MY 2011. MY 2012 adjusted fuel economy is 23.6 mpg,
which is 1.2 mpg higher than MY 2011. Both values represent all-time records since the
database began in MY 1975, and the authors believe that these represent historical records
as well. The 1.2 mpg fuel economy improvement from MY 2011 to MY 2012 is the second
largest annual improvement in the last 30 years.
CO2 emissions and fuel economy have now improved in seven of the last eight years. This
recent positive trend reversed the long negative trend from MY 1987 through MY 2004.
Preliminary MY 2013 adjusted values are 370 g/mi CO2 emissions and 24.0 mpg fuel
economy, which, if achieved, will again represent all-time records. Final values for MY 2013
will be published in next year's report.
While the direction and magnitude of changes from year-to-year often receive the most
public attention, the greatest value of the historical Trends database is the documentation
of long-term trends. This is because: 1) year-to-year volatility can reflect short-term trends
(e.g., the economic recession and Cash for Clunkers rebates in 2009 and the impact of the
tsunami on Japan-based manufacturers in 2011) that may not be meaningful from a long-
term perspective, and 2) the magnitude of year-to-year changes in annual CO2 emissions
and fuel economy tend to be small relative to longer, multi-year trends.
Based on the final Trends data through MY 2012, CO2 emissions have decreased by 85 g/mi,
or 18%, since MY 2004, and fuel economy has increased by 4.3 mpg, or 22%.
Adjusted CO2 Emissions for MY 1975-20131 Adjusted Fuel Economy for MY 1975-20131
n
CO
700-
600
O 500-
w
—• 400-1
300-1
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Model Year
O
Q_
28-
26-
^ 24-
o 22
o
o on
LJJ ^u
0)
3
Ll_
T3
"55
f
18-
16-
14-
12-
Trucks
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Model Year
1 Adjusted CO2 and fuel economy values reflect real world estimates and are not comparable to automaker standards compliance
levels. Adjusted CO2 values are, on average, about 25% higher than the unadjusted laboratory CO2 values that form the starting
point for GHG standards compliance, and adjusted fuel economy values are about 20% lower, on average, than unadjusted fuel
economy values.
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Light truck market share decreased in MY 2012,
but continues to be variable
Light trucks, which include pickups, minivans/vans, and truck SUVs (SUVs that must meet
light truck GHG emissions and fuel economy standards), accounted for 36% of all light-duty
vehicle production in MY 2012, the second lowest level since 1993. This represents a 6%
decrease relative to MY 2011, and essentially offsets the 5% increase from MY 2010 to MY
2011. The MY 2013 light truck market share is projected to remain at 36%, based on pre-
model year projections by automakers.
Light truck market share has been variable in recent years, e.g., truck share has changed by
4% or more in each year for MY 2009-2012, with two years of increases and two years of
decreases. Three factors that have likely contributed to the volatility in truck share include:
1) MY 2009 was a particularly unusual year due to the serious economic recession that led
to much turmoil in the automotive market and almost certainly led to an artificially low
truck production share in that year; 2) the Car Allowance Rebate System (CARS), commonly
referred to as Cash for Clunkers, managed by NHTSA, which provided incentives of up to
$4500 for the trade-in of a vehicle with lower fuel economy and purchase of a new vehicle
with higher fuel economy, resulted in 677,081 new vehicle purchases in 2009, and 3) the
earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear tragedies in Japan in March 2011, which decreased the
supply of cars from Japan, and likely contributed to the truck share increase in MY 2011
(as well as to the projected truck share decrease in MY 2012).
Cars include conventional cars and car SUVs (SUVs that must meet car GHG emissions and
fuel economy standards).
ES4
Production Share by Vehicle Type for MY 1975-2013
100%
75%
CD
co
.0 50% -
4—'
O
T3
O
25% -
Cars
Car SUVs
Truck SUVs
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Model Year
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Vehicle weight trend is flat and increasing vehicle
power trend is slowing
Vehicle weight and performance are two of the most important design parameters that help
determine a vehicle's CO2 emissions and fuel economy. In general, all other factors being
equal, higher vehicle weight and faster acceleration performance (e.g., lower O-to-60 miles-
per-hour acceleration time), both increase a vehicle's CO2 emissions and decrease fuel
economy.
MY 2012 vehicle weight averaged 3,977 pounds, a decrease of 150 pounds compared to MY
2011. Average MY 2012 vehicle power was 222 horsepower, a decrease of 8 horsepower
from MY 2011. Estimated O-to-60 acceleration time in MY 2012 was unchanged at 9.4
seconds. Average vehicle footprint declined by 0.7 square feet in MY 2012. The decrease in
light truck market share was a major factor in the lower weight, horsepower, and footprint.
Preliminary MY 2013 values suggest that average vehicle weight and power will both
increase, though these projections are uncertain, and EPA will not have final data until next
year's report. The preliminary MY 2013 average weight is relatively unchanged over the
last decade. The preliminary MY 2013 horsepower value would tie the record first set in MY
2011.
Change in Adjusted Fuel Economy, Weight, and Horsepower for MY 1975-2013
100%-
05 80% -
CD
o 60% -
CO
CD 40% -
CD
_§ 20% -
U
CD
fc
Q.
-20% -
-40% -
Adjusted Fuel Economy (MPG)
Weight
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Model Year
From MY 1987 through MY 2004, on a fleetwide basis, automotive technology innovation
was generally utilized to support vehicle attributes other than CO2 emissions and fuel
economy, such as weight, performance, and utility. Beginning in MY 2005, technology has
been used to increase both fuel economy (which has reduced CO2 emissions) and power,
while keeping vehicle weight relatively constant.
Tables 2.1 (cars plus light trucks), 3.3.1 (cars), and 3.3.2 (light trucks) provide data on key
vehicle attributes.
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Many new technologies are rapidly
gaining market share
New technologies are continually being introduced into the marketplace, replacing older
and less effective technologies. Technological innovation is a major driving force behind the
recent improvements in CO2 emissions and fuel economy, and the majority of the carbon
and oil savings from current vehicles is due to new gasoline vehicle technologies. The figure
below shows changes in market share over the five-year period from MY 2008 through MY
2013 for several key engine and transmission technologies for which Trends gathers data.
Two engine technologies first introduced over 20 years ago—variable valve timing (VVT)
and multi-valve engines—are both projected to be used on over 90% of MY 2013 vehicles.
Gasoline direct injection (GDI) engines have increased market share ten-fold from less
than 3% in MY 2008 to over 30% in MY 2013. Turbochargers, which are often used in
conjunction with GDI, have increased market share by a factor of five since MY 2008.
Transmissions with 6 or more speeds and continuously variable transmissions (CVTs)
cumulatively accounted for about 30% of vehicle production in MY 2008, but are projected
to exceed 80% market share in MY 2013.
Compared to the engine and transmission technologies discussed above, there has been far
less growth in the production shares of hybrid and diesel powertrains (see Highlight 5 for
the increase in the number of hybrid and diesel models), and cylinder deactivation (CD).
Technology Production Share for MY 2008 and MY 2013
100% -
75% -
CD
03
.c
CO
0 50% -
'4—*
(J
Q.
25% •
VVT Multi- GDI Turbo CD Hybrid Diesel 6 7 + CVT
Valve speed speed
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Consumers have an increasing number of high
fuel economy/low CO2 vehicle choices
Consumers have more choices than ever when shopping for vehicles with higher fuel
economy and lower tailpipe CO2 emissions. These choices reflect both a more diverse
range of technology packages on conventional gasoline vehicles as well as more advanced
technology and alternative fueled vehicles.
There are 15 MY 2013 pickup and minivan/van models for which at least one variant of
the model has a combined city/highway label fuel economy rating of 20 mpg or more,
compared with nine models five years ago. There are over twice as many SUV models that
achieve 25 mpg or more in MY 2013 than in MY 2008. The number of non-hybrid SUVs that
achieved 25 mpg increased from four in MY 2008 to 17 in MY 2013, more than a four-
fold increase. The number of car models where at least one variant has a combined city/
highway label fuel economy of 30 mpg or more increased by five-fold, and the number of
car models at 40 mpg or more have increased from three to over 20 (all hybrid, electric and
plug-in hybrid electric vehicles).
Vehicle Models Meeting Fuel Economy Thresholds in MY 2008 and MY 2013
60-
0
T3
O
0
.a
E
vehicles, andMPGe estimates
for EVs and PHEVs
Pickups and
minivans/vans > 20 MPG
SUVs > 25 MPG
Cars > 30 MPG
Cars > 40 MPG
There are also many more advanced technology vehicle choices. In MY 2013, there are
three times as many hybrid offerings as there were in MY 2008. In addition, the number of
diesel offerings has doubled, and there are growing numbers of electric vehicles and plug-
in hybrid electric vehicles as well.
Section 8 provides more detail about the methodology for this "model count" analysis,
and also shows that, within individual models, consumers have a wider range of high fuel
economy performance from which to choose.
Advanced Technology and Alternative Fuel Vehicle Models in MY 2008 and MY 2013
0
T3
o
0
.a
E
Diesel
Hybrid
EV
PHEV
CNG
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Nearly every manufacturer increased fuel economy in MY 2012,
resulting in lower CO2 emission rates
Ten of the eleven manufacturers shown below increased fuel economy from MY 2011 to
MY 2012, the last two years for which we have definitive data. Preliminary MY 2013 values
suggest that most manufacturers will improve in MY 2013 as well, though these projections
are uncertain, and EPA will not have final data until next year's report.
In MY 2012, for the 11 manufacturers shown, Mazda had the lowest fleetwide adjusted
composite CO2 emissions and highest adjusted fuel economy performance, followed by
Honda. Chrysler-Fiat had the highest CO2 emissions and lowest fuel economy, followed by
Daimler. Daimler had the biggest improvement in adjusted CO2 emissions performance
from MY 2011 to MY 2012, with a 43 g/mi reduction, followed by Honda with a 35 g/mi
reduction. Honda had the biggest fuel economy improvement from MY 2011 to MY 2012,
of 2.5 mpg, while Mazda had the second largest increase of 2.1 mpg.
Section 4 has greater detail on the fuel economy and CO2 emissions for these manufacturers
(e.g., for individual manufacturer car and light truck fleets), as well as for individual makes
(i.e., brands).
MY 2011-2013 Manufacturer Adjusted Fuel Economy and Adjusted CO2 Emissions1
MY 2011 Final MY 2012 Final MY 2013 Preliminary
Manufacturer2
Mazda
Honda
Toyota
VW
Subaru
Nissan
BMW
Ford
GM
Daimler
Chrysler-Fiat
All
Fuel
Economy
(MPG)
25.0
24.1
24.1
26.0
23.9
23.3
22.7
21.1
20.7
19.1
19.4
22.4
C02
Emissions
(g/mi)
356
369
369
349
372
381
393
422
429
469
458
398
Fuel
Economy
(MPG)
27.1
26.6
25.6
25.8
25.2
24.1
23.7
22.8
21.7
21.1
20.1
23.6
Change
from
MY 2011
(MPG)
+2.1
+2.5
+1.5
-0.2
+1.3
+0.8
+1.0
+1.7
+1.0
+2.0
+0.7
+1.2
C02
Emissions
(g/mi)
328
334
347
351
352
369
377
390
410
426
442
376
Change
from
MY 2011
(g/mi)
-28
-35
-22
+2
-20
-12
-16
-32
-19
-43
-16
-22
Fuel
Economy
(MPG)
27.5
27.0
25.2
26.2
26.2
25.3
24.4
22.6
22.0
22.2
21.6
24.0
co2
Emissions
(g/mi)
324
329
352
346
339
351
364
394
404
402
411
370
ES8 ^
1 Adjusted CO2 and fuel economy values reflect real world estimates and are not comparable to automaker standards compliance
levels. Adjusted CO2 values are, on average, about 25% higher than the unadjusted laboratory CO2 values that form the starting
point for GHG standards compliance, and adjusted fuel economy values are about 20% lower, on average, than unadjusted fuel
economy values.
2 Two manufacturers, Hyundai and Kia, are not included in rows in the table above due to a continuing investigation. On
November 2, 2012, EPA announced that Hyundai and Kia would lower their fuel economy estimates for many vehicle models as
the result of an EPA investigation of test data. Based on these corrected data, Hyundai's values are 27.2 mpg and 327 g/mi CO2
for MY 2011, 28.3 mpg and 314 g/mi CO2 for MY 2012, and 28.3 mpg and 315 g/mi CO2for MY 2013 (preliminary). Kia's values
are 25.8 mpg and 345 g/mi COJor MY 2011, 26.5 mpg and 336 g/mi CO2for MY 2012, and 27.3 mpg and 326 g/mi CO2for
MY 2013 (preliminary). These corrected data for Hyundai and Kia are included in industry-wide or "All," values.
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Manufacturers are selling many vehicles today that can meet
future CO2 emissions targets
EPA evaluated MY 2013 vehicles against future footprint-based CO2 emissions regulatory
targets to determine which vehicles could meet or exceed their future targets in MY
2016-2025. These comparisons were based on current powertrain designs, assuming
improvements only in air conditioner refrigerants and efficiency. EPA assumed
air conditioning improvements since these are considered to be among the most
straightforward and least expensive technologies available to reduce CO2 and other
greenhouse gas emissions. It is important to note there are no CO2 emissions standards
for individual vehicles. Rather, there are manufacturer-specific compliance levels for both
passenger car and light truck fleets. The compliance levels for each manufacturer are
derived from the footprint-based CO2 emissions target curves, and the production volume-
weighted distribution of vehicles produced for sale in the U.S. by each manufacturer.
The figure below shows that 28% of projected MY 2013 vehicle production already
meets the MY 2016 CO2 emissions targets, or can meet these targets with the addition of
expected air conditioning improvements. The bulk of this production share is accounted
for by non-hybrid gasoline vehicles, although other technologies, including diesels, hybrids,
plug-in electric hybrids, electric vehicles, and compressed natural gas vehicles, are also
represented.
Looking ahead, about 5% of projected MY 2013 production could meet the MY 2025 CO2
emissions targets. Vehicles meeting the MY 2025 CO2 targets are comprised solely of
hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and electric vehicles. Since the MY 2025 standards are over a
decade away, there's considerable time for continued improvements in gasoline vehicle
technology.
MY 2013 Vehicle Production Share That Meets Future CO Emissions Targets
35%-
30% -
25%-
20% -
15% -
10%-
Fuel
2016 2017 2020
Target Year
2025
9
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NOTICE:
This technical report does not necessarily represent final EPA decisions or positions. It is
intended to present technical analysis of issues using data that are currently available. The
purpose in the release of such reports is to facilitate the exchange of technical information
and to inform the public of technical developments.
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