Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA) for Proposed
Residential Wood Heaters NSPS Revision
Final Report
-------
EPA-452/R-13-004
Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA)
for Proposed Residential Wood
Heaters NSPS Revision
Final Report
Prepared for
Larry Sorrels
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards (OAQPS)
Air Economics Group (AEG)
(MD-C439-02)
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
Prepared by
Jeffrey Petrusa
Stephanie Morris
Brooks Depro
RTI International
3040 Cornwallis Road
Research Triangle Park, NC 27709
Contract No. EP-D-06-003
Work Assignment No. 4-84
RTI Project Number 0212979.001.002
-------
Contract No. EP-D-06-003
Work Assignment No. 4-84
RTI Project Number
0212979.001.002
Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA)
for Proposed Residential Wood
Heaters NSPS Revision
Final Report
January 2014
Prepared for
Larry Sorrels
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards (OAQPS)
Health and Environmental Impacts Division (HEID)
Air Economics Group (AEG)
(MD-C439-02)
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
Prepared by
Jeffrey Petrusa
Stephanie Morris
Brooks Depro
RTI International
3040 Cornwallis Road
Research Triangle Park, NC 27709
-------
-------
CONTENTS
Section Page
Section 1 Executive Summary 1-1
1.1 Analysis Summary 1-3
1.2 Organization of this Report 1-5
Section 2 Introduction 2-1
2.1 Background for Proposed Rule 2-1
2.2 Room Heaters 2-1
2.3 Central Heaters: Hydronic Heaters and Forced-Air Furnaces 2-10
2.4 New Residential Masonry Heaters 2-16
Section 3 Industry Profile 3-1
3.1 Supply Side 3-1
3.1.1 Production Process 3-2
3.1.2 Product Types 3-2
3.1.3 Costs of Production 3-5
3.2 Demand Side 3-8
3.2.1 End-Use Consumer Segments 3-10
3.2.2 Regional Variation in Residential Demand 3-10
3.2.3 National Home Heating Trends 3-13
3.2.4 Substitution Possibilities 3-15
3.2.5 Price Elasticity of Demand 3-15
3.3 Industry Organization 3-16
3.3.1 Market Structure 3-17
3.3.2 Manufacturing Plants 3-18
3.3.3 Location 3-20
3.3.4 Company Sales and Employment 3-21
in
-------
3.4 Residential Wood Heater Market 3-23
3.4.1 Market Prices 3-24
3.4.2 International Competition 3-25
3.4.3 Future Market Trends 3-26
Section 4 Baseline Emissions and Emission Reductions 4-1
4.1 Introduction 4-1
4.2 Background to Emissions Estimates 4-1
4.2.1 Emissions Factors 4-3
4.2.2 Voluntary Programs 4-10
4.2.3 Shipment Data Used to Estimate Baseline Emissions 4-11
4.3 Estimated PM2.5 Emissions from Shipments of New Appliances 4-12
4.4 Methodology for Estimating VOC Emissions from New Units 4-16
4.5 Methodology for Estimating CO Emissions from New Units 4-21
Section 5 Cost Analysis, Energy Impacts, and Executive Order Analyses 5-1
5.1 Background for Compliance Costs 5-1
5.1.1 Estimated Research and Development (R&D) Costs 5-1
5.1.2 Masonry Heaters 5-4
5.1.3 General Approach and Assumptions for Costs to Manufacturers 5-5
5.1.4 General Approach and Assumptions for Costs to Masonry Heater
Manufacturers 5-8
5.1.5 General Approach and Assumptions for All Appliances 5-9
5.2 Compliance Costs of the Proposed Rule 5-14
5.3 How Might People and Firms Respond? A Qualitative Partial Equilibrium
Analysis 5-17
5.3.1 Changes in Market Prices and Quantities 5-17
5.3.2 Partial Equilibrium Measures of Social Cost: Changes in
Consumer and Producer Surplus 5-20
5.4 Social Cost Estimate 5-21
5.5 Energy Impacts 5-21
5.6 Unfunded Mandates Reform Act (UMRA) 5-22
IV
-------
5.6.1 Future and Disproportionate Costs 5-22
5.6.2 Effects on the National Economy 5-22
5.6.3 Executive Order 13045: Protection of Children from
Environmental Health Risks and Safety Risks 5-23
5.6.4 Executive Order 12898: Federal Actions to Address Environmental
Justice in Minority Populations and Low-Income Populations 5-24
5.7 Employment Impacts 5-24
5.7.1 Employment Impacts within the Regulated Industry 5-27
Section 6 Small Entity Screening Analysis 6-1
6.1 Small Entity Data Set 6-1
6.2 Small Entity Economic Impact Measures 6-2
6.2.1 Establishment Employment and Receipts 6-2
6.2.2 Establishment Compliance Cost 6-3
6.3 Initial Regulatory Flexibility Analysis 6-14
6.3.1 Reasons Why Action Is Being Considered 6-14
6.3.2 Statement of Objectives and Legal Basis of Proposed Rule 6-14
6.3.3 Description and Estimate of the Number of Small Entities 6-15
6.3.4 Description and Compliance Costs 6-15
6.3.5 Panel Recommendations for Small Business Flexibilities 6-17
Section 7 Human Health Benefits of Emissions Reductions 7-1
7.1 Synopsis 7-1
7.2 PM2.5-Related Human Health Benefits 7-1
7.2.1 Health Impact Assessment 7-2
7.2.2 Economic Valuation 7-5
7.2.3 Benefit-per-ton Estimates 7-7
7.2.4 PM2.5 Benefits Results 7-8
7.2.5 Characterization of Uncertainty in the Monetized PM2.sBenefits 7-10
7.3 Unquantified Benefits 7-15
7.3.1 HAP Benefits 7-16
7.3.2 Carbon Monoxide Co-Benefits 7-26
7.3.3 Black Carbon (BC) Benefits 7-27
v
-------
7.3.4 VOCs as aPM2.5 Precursor 7-29
7.3.5 VOCs as an Ozone Precursor 7-29
7.3.6 Visibility Impairment Co-Benefits 7-30
7.4 References 7-30
Section 8 Comparison of Monetized Benefits and Costs.
8.1 Summary
Section 9 References and Cost Appendix 9-1
VI
-------
LIST OF FIGURES
Number Page
3-1. Census Regions and Divisions of the United States 3-13
3-2. Declining Trend in U.S. Housing Units Using Wood Fuel: 1989-2005 3-14
3-3. Annual Plant Capacity Utilization for Heating Equipment Manufacturers
(NAICS 333414): 2002-2006 3-18
5-1. Market Demand and Supply Model: With and Without Regulation 5-19
6-1. Population of Firebox Models and Average Models per Establishment by
Product Type 6-8
6-2. Distribution of National Compliance Costs by Product Type in 2014 to 2022 6-9
7-1. Total Monetized PM2.5 Benefits of the Proposed Residential Wood Heaters
NSPS in the 2014-2022 Time Frame 7-11
7-2. Breakdown of Total Monetized PM2.5 Benefits of Proposed Residential Wood
Heaters NSPS by Category 7-11
7-3. Percentage of Adult Population by Annual Mean PM2.5 Exposure in the
Baseline 7-16
7-4. Cumulative Distribution of Adult Population by Annual Mean PM2.5 Exposure
in the Baseline 7-17
7-5. Estimated Census Tract Carcinogenic Risk from HAP Exposure from Outdoor
Sources (2005 NATA) 7-19
7-6. Estimated Chronic Census Tract Noncancer (Respiratory) Risk from HAP
Exposure from Outdoor Sources (2005 NATA) 7-20
8-1. Net Annual Benefits Range in 2014-2022 Time Frame for PM2.5 Reductions for
the Proposed Option 8-4
8-2. Net Annual Benefits Range in 2014-2022 Time Frame for PM2.5 Reductions for
the Alternative Option 8-5
vn
-------
LIST OF TABLES
Number Page
1-1. Summary of the Monetized Benefits, Social Costs, and Net Benefits for the
Proposed Residential Wood Heaters NSPS in the 2014-2022 Time Frame
($2010 millions) 1-6
2-1. Proposed Approach Subpart AAA Compliance Deadlines and PM Emissions
Limits 2-4
2-2. Alternative Approach Subpart AAA Compliance Deadlines and PM Emissions
Limits 2-4
2-3. Proposed Approach Subpart QQQQ Compliance Dates and PM Emissions
Standards 2-11
2-4. Alternative Approach Subpart QQQQ Compliance Dates and PM Emissions
Standards 2-11
3-1. Costs for Labor and Materials for U.S. Heating Equipment and Hardware
Manufacturing: 2011 3-7
3-2. Costs for U.S. Masonry Contractors and Single-Family Home Contractors: 2007 3-9
3-3. Costs for U.S. Plumbing and Heating Equipment Supplies Wholesalers: 2007 3-9
3-4. Costs for U.S. Specialized Home Furnishing Stores: 2007 3-9
3-5. Wood as Primary Fuel Source for Home Heating in the United States: 2006-
2008 3-11
3-6. Wood as Secondary Heat Source by Census Division, 2009 (millions of
households) 3-12
3-7. Number of U.S. Companies by Business Type 3-19
3-8. U.S. Wood Heat Equipment Industry by Geographic Location 3-21
3-9. U.S. Sales and Employment Statistics by Business Type 3-22
3-10. Profit Margins for NAICS 333414, 238140, and 423720: 2008 3-23
3-11. Unit Shipments and Percentage of Total Units by Product Type: 2008 3-24
3-12. Installation Costs for Average System by Product Type (North America): 2008 3-24
3-13. Manufacturers' Price by Product Type (North America): 2008 3-25
4-1. RWC Emission Inventory Categories Used 4-1
4-2. PM2.5 Tons per Appliance Estimate (Baseline) 4-3
4-3. NSPS Adjusted Factors for PM2.5 4-9
4-4. Estimated Annual Shipped Units 4-9
4-5. Estimated PM2.5 Emissions (Tons): Baseline 4-14
4-6. Estimated PM2.5 Emissions (Tons): Proposed Option 4-14
Vlll
-------
4-7. Estimated PM2.5 Emissions (Tons): Alternative Option 4-15
4-8. NSPS VOC Emission Factors 4-17
4-9. Estimated VOC Emissions (Tons): Baseline 4-19
4-10. Estimated VOC Emissions (Tons): Proposed Option 4-19
4-11. Estimated VOC Emissions (Tons): Alternative Option 4-20
4-12. NSPS CO Emission Factors 4-22
4-13. Estimated CO Emissions (Tons): Baseline 4-24
4-14. Estimated CO Emissions (Tons): Proposed Option 4-24
4-15. Estimated CO Emissions (Tons): Alternative Option 4-25
5-1. Example of Manufacturers' Estimates of Costs to Develop Model Line (4
Fireboxes) 5-2
5-2. Annual Cost Summary: Development of 4 Model Fireboxes 5-3
5-3. Labor-based Employment Estimates for Certification, Quality Assurance, Reporting,
Recordkeeping, and Accreditation Requirements for the Proposed NSPS Option. 5-10
5-4. Summary of Average Annualized Nationwide Costs for 2014-2022 Time Frame
Under the Proposal and Alternative Options 5-15
5-5a.Industry Level-Annualized Compliance Costs (2010 dollars) as a Fraction of
Total Industry Revenue by Product Type in the 2014-2022 Time Frame—
Proposal Option 5-16
5-5b. Industry Level-Annualized Compliance Costs (2010 dollars) as a Fraction of
Total Industry Revenue by Product Type in 2014-2022 Time Frame—
Alternative Option 5-17
5-6. Hypothetical Price Increases for a 1% Increase in Unit Costs 5-20
5-7. Hypothetical Consumption Decreases for a 1% Increase in Unit Costs 5-20
6-1. Revised NSPS Proposal for Residential Wood Heating Devices: Affected
Sectors and SBA Small Business Size Standards 6-3
6-2. Average Receipts for Affected Industry by Enterprise Employment Size: 2007
($2010 million/establishment) 6-5
6-3. Average Receipts for Affected Industry by Enterprise Receipt Range: 2007
($2010 million/establishment) 6-5
6-4. Per-Entity Annualized Compliance Costs by Product Type—Proposed Option
($2010 millions) 6-6
6-5. Per-Entity Annualized Compliance Costs by Product Type—Alternative Option
($2010 millions) 6-7
6-6. Representative Establishment Costs Used for Small Entity Analysis ($2010) 6-7
6-7. Cost-to-Receipt Ratio Results for the Proposal Option by NAICS Code 6-10
6-8. Cost-to-Receipt Ratio Results for the Alternative Option by NAICS Code 6-11
6-9. Total Annual Cost (TAG) per Appliance Model - for Varying
Annualized R&D Cycle Lifespans 6-12
IX
-------
6-10. Cost-to-Sales Ratio Sensitivity Analysis Results Reflecting Different R&D
Cycle Lifespans for the Proposed Option by NAICS Code 6-13
7-1. Human Health Effects of Ambient PM2.5 7-3
7-2. Summary of Monetized PM2.s-Related Health Benefits Estimates for the
Proposed Residential Wood Heaters NSPS in the 2014-2022 Time Frame
(2010$) 7-9
7-3. Summary of Reductions in Health Incidences from PM2.s-Related Benefits for
the Proposed Residential Wood Heaters NSPS in the 2014-2022 Time Frame 7-10
7-4. All PM2.5 Benefits Estimates for the Proposed Residential Wood Heaters NSPS
at Discount Rates of 3% and 7% for the 2014 to 2022 Time Frame ($2010
millions) 7-12
7-5. Population Exposure in the Baseline Above and Below Various Concentration
Benchmarks in the Underlying Epidemiology Studies 7-15
8-1. Summary of the Monetized Benefits, Social Costs, and Net Benefits for the
Proposed Residential Wood Heater NSPS in the 2014-2022 Time Frame ($2010
millions) 8-3
8-2. Compliance Costs, Monetized Benefits, and Monetized Net Benefits (2010 dollars) by
Source Category in the 2014-2022 Time Frame - Proposal Option 8-6
8-3. Compliance Costs, Monetized Benefits, and Monetized Net Benefits (2010 dollars) by
Source Category in the 2014-2022 Time Frame - Alternative Option 8-7
x
-------
SECTION 1
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is proposing to revise new source
performance standards (NSPS) for residential wood stoves, and to issue NSPS for pellet stoves,
furnaces, hydronic heaters, and masonry heaters. The EPA is proposing this revision under the
authority of section 111 of the Clean Air Act (CAA), "Standards of Performance for New
Stationary Sources," under which the EPA establishes federal standards of performance for new
sources within source categories which cause or contribute significantly to air pollution, which
may reasonably be anticipated to endanger public health or welfare. We are proposing to amend
40 CFR part 60, subpart AAA, Standards of Performance for New Residential Wood Heaters.
The current regulation (subpart AAA) applies to affected facilities manufactured since 1988.
Except as discussed in this proposal, the current requirements would remain in effect for the
heaters/stoves and model lines manufactured before this proposal. We also propose to broaden
the applicability of the wood heaters regulation beyond adjustable burn rate heaters (stoves, the
focus of the original regulation) to specifically include single burn rate heaters, hydronic heaters,
and pellet stoves. Heaters/stoves and model lines manufactured after the compliance dates would
be required to meet particulate matter (PM) standards. Compliance upon the effective date of the
final rule is the intention in section 111 of the CAA. Revision of the current residential wood
heaters NSPS is necessary to capture the improvements in performance of such units and to
include additional wood-burning residential heating devices. The proposed changes are expected
to achieve several objectives, including the application of updated emission limits reflecting the
best industry emission reduction systems; elimination of exemptions over a broad suite of
residential wood combustion devices; the strengthening of test methods as appropriate; and the
streamlining of the certification process. This proposal does not include any requirements for
heaters solely fired by gas, oil or coal. In addition, it does not include any requirements
associated with wood heaters or other wood-burning appliances that are already in use. The EPA
continues to encourage state, local, tribal, and consumer efforts to change out (replace) older
heaters with newer, cleaner, more efficient heaters, but that is not part of this Federal
rulemaking. These proposed revisions help address the health impacts of particle pollution, of
which wood smoke is a contributing factor in many areas. Particulate pollution from wood
heaters is a significant national air pollution problem and human health issue. Health benefits
associated with these proposed regulations are valued to be much greater than the cost to
manufacture cleaner, lower emitting appliances. These proposed regulations would also
significantly reduce emissions of many other pollutants from these appliances, including carbon
monoxide, volatile organic compounds, hazardous air pollutants and climate-forcing emissions.
1-1
-------
Emissions from wood stoves occur near ground level in residential communities across the
country, and setting these new requirements for cleaner stoves into the future will result in
substantial reductions in exposure and improved public health.
Wood smoke contains a mixture of fine particles and toxic air pollutants (e.g., benzene
and formaldehyde) that can cause burning eyes, runny nose, and bronchitis. Exposure to fine
particles has been associated with a range of health effects, including aggravation of heart or
respiratory problems, changes in lung function and increased respiratory symptoms, as well as
premature death. Populations that are at greater risk for experiencing health effects related to fine
particle exposures include older adults, children and individuals with pre-existing heart or lung
disease. Each year smoke from wood heaters and fireplaces contributes hundreds of thousands of
tons of fine particles throughout the country—mostly during the winter months. For more
information on the health impacts from exposure to fine particles, please refer to Section 7 of this
RIA. Nationally, residential wood combustion accounts for 44% of total stationary and mobile
poly cyclic organic matter (POM) emissions, nearly 25 percent of all area source air toxics cancer
risks and 15 percent of noncancer respiratory effects. Residential wood smoke causes many
counties in the U.S. to either exceed the EPA's health-based national ambient air quality
standards (NAAQS) for fine particles or places them on the cusp of exceeding those standards.
For example, in places such as Keene, New Hampshire; Sacramento, California; Tacoma,
Washington; and Fairbanks, Alaska; wood combustion can contribute over 50 percent of daily
wintertime fine particle emissions. The concerns are heightened because wood stoves, hydronic
heaters, and other heaters are often used around the clock in many residential areas. To the
degree that older, dirtier, less efficient wood heaters are replaced by newer heaters that meet the
requirements of this rule, or better, the emissions would be reduced, the efficiencies would be
increased, and fewer health impacts should occur.
This is an economically significant rule as defined by Executive Order 12866 and
Executive Order 13563. Therefore, EPA is required to develop a regulatory impact analysis
(RIA) as part of the regulatory process. The RIA includes an economic impact analysis (EIA), a
small entity impacts analysis, an engineering cost analysis, and a benefits analysis along with
documentation for the methods and results.
We provide annualized average results for the time frame from 2014 to 2022 inclusive for
two options: the Proposed option and an Alternative option. While the Proposed Option
represents EPA's preferred option, the Alternative Option is still under consideration. These
options are described in detail in the preamble for the proposal and in Section 2 of this RIA and
summarized in Section 4. The options vary in part by their respective dates of implementation,
1-2
-------
all of which are captured by the range of dates included in the analyses. We estimate the impacts
for the time frame from 2014 to 2022 in order to provide an average of annualized results for
these options from the time of rule promulgation in 2014 to the time of full implementation of
both options, which occurs by 2022. Because the potential environmental impacts can occur for
40 years or more, which is the typical useful life for wood heater appliances, the impacts for 40
years are also shown in the appendix within Section 9 of this RIA. The variability of annual
impacts for each option provides an appropriate rationale for presenting impacts averaged over
this time frame. All results in this RIA are presented in 2010 dollars. Estimates of benefits and
costs are discounted to the analysis year using both a 7% and 3% discount rates following
Circular A-4, "Regulatory Analysis," which provides guidance to Federal agencies on the
development of regulatory analyses required by Executive Order 12866.l
In addition, this proposal cannot be certified as not having a significant economic impact
on a substantial number of small entities (SISNOSE) according to the provisions of the Small
Business Regulatory Enforcement Fairness Act (SBREFA). Therefore, small entity impacts
analysis presented in Section 6 is an Initial Regulatory Flexibility Analysis (IRFA). Section 6
also contains a summary of the proceedings and conclusions of a panel called to find ways to
mitigate small entity impacts associated with this rule under the authority of the SBREFA.
1.1 Analysis Summary
The key results of the RIA are as follows:
• Engineering Cost Analysis: EPA estimates the revised NSPS' s total annualized cost
to affected manufacturers on average in the 2014-2022 time frame will be $15.7
million ($2010) for the Proposed option and $28.3 million (2010$) for the Alternative
option, respectively, with the total annualized cost estimate at a 7% discount rate. At
a 3% discount rate, the total annualized cost will be $14.8 million for the Proposed
option and $26.9 million for the Alternative option.
• Economic Impact Analysis: The metric for economic impacts for industries affected
by this Proposed option are industry-level average annualized compliance costs to
receipts (or sales) ratios. This metric is calculated as an average in the 2014-2022
time frame, and the estimates ranged from 4.3% for industries that produce wood
stoves to as much as 6.4% for single burn rate stoves. For the Alternative option, the
range is between 4.0% for forced air furnaces and 10.7% for single burn rate stoves.
These results approximate the maximum price increase needed for a producer to fully
recover the annual compliance costs and, therefore, do not presume any pass through
Circular A-4 is available at: http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/circulars a004 a-4
1-3
-------
of impacts to consumers. With pass through to consumers, these impact estimates will
decline proportionately to the degree of pass through.
Social Cost Analysis: For this RIA, the Agency assumes that the social cost is equal
to the annualized cost to manufacturers. Therefore, the estimated average annual
social cost of the Proposed and Alternative options in the 2014-2022 timeframe are
expected to be $15.7 million and $14.8 million respectively when discounted at 7% ,
and $28.3 million and $26.9 million when discounted at 3%. See Section 5 of this
RIA for more detail on the estimated social cost.
Small Entity Analyses: EPA performed a screening analysis for impacts on small
entities by comparing compliance costs to sales/revenues (e.g., sales and revenue
tests). EPA's analysis showed the tests were higher than 1% for small entities
included in the screening analysis; the 1% test estimate is often an indicator for
significant impacts to small firms. For these industries, almost all (more than 90%)
affected entities are small firms. We concluded that we could not certify that there
would not be a significant economic impact on a substantial number of small entities
(SISNOSE) for either option considered in this RIA. Pursuant to section 603 of the
RFA, EPA prepared an initial regulatory flexibility analysis (IRFA) for the proposed
rule and convened a Small Business Advocacy Review Panel to obtain advice and
recommendations of representatives of the regulated small entities. A detailed
discussion of the Panel's advice and recommendations is found in the final Panel
Report (Docket ID No. EPA-HQ-OAR-2009-0734. A summary of the Panel's
recommendations is also presented in the preamble to the proposal. In the proposal,
EPA included provisions consistent with several of the Panel's recommendations.
Benefits Analysis:
— Monetized benefits in this RIA include those from reducing particulate matter
(PM). These benefits reflect reductions of nearly 4,800 tons annually of fine
parti culate matter (PM^.s) on average during the 2014-2022 time frame under
each of the two options. All monetized benefits reported reflect improvements in
ambient PM2.5 concentrations due to emission reductions of direct PM2.5. As a
result, the monetized benefits likely underestimate the total benefits, however, the
extent of the underestimate is unclear. Monetized benefits reflect those associated
with reductions in premature mortality due to lower ambient PM2.5 concentrations
resulting from implementation of the NSPS. Other benefits categories from PM2.5
reductions, such as changes in visibility, are assessed qualitatively in this analysis.
- Using a 3% discount rate, we estimated the total monetized benefits of the
Proposed and Alternative options to be $1.8 billion to $4.2 billion and $1.9 billion
to $4.2 billion, respectively based on estimates by Krewski and Lepeule, in the
2014-2022 time frame. Using a 7% discount rate, we estimate the total monetized
benefits of the Proposed option to be $1.7 billion to $3.8 billion and $1.7 billion
to $3.8 billion for the Alternative option in the 2014-2022 time frame. The
benefits are almost identical for both options analyzed. Using alternative
relationships between PM2.5 and premature mortality supplied by experts, higher
1-4
-------
and lower benefits estimates are plausible, but most of the expert-based estimates
fall between these estimates.
The benefits from reducing some air pollutants have not been monetized in this
analysis due to data and resource constraints, including reducing 33,000 tons of
carbon monoxide (CO), over 3,200 tons of volatile organic compounds (VOCs),
and undetermined amounts of black carbon and HAP emissions under each option
analyzed. Data, resources, and methodological limitations prevented EPA from
monetizing the benefits from these important benefit categories. We assessed the
benefits of these emission reductions qualitatively in this RIA.
• Net Benefits: For the residential wood heater NSPS, the net benefits (benefits minus
the costs) are $1.8 billion to $4.1 billion ($2010) at a 3% discount rate and $1.7
billion to $3.7 billion ($2010) at a 7% discount rate for the Proposed option and $1.8
billion to $4.2 billion ($2010) at a 3% discount rate and $1.7 billion to $3.8 billion
($2010) at a 7% discount rate for the Alternative option in the 2014-2022 time frame.
All net benefits are in 2010 dollars ($2010).
1.2 Organization of this Report
The remainder of this report supports and details the methodology and the results of the
RIA:
• Section 2 describes the proposed regulation.
• Section 3 presents the profile of the affected industries.
Section 4 describes the baseline emissions and emission reductions for the
alternatives analyzed in this proposal.
• Section 5 describes the engineering costs, economic impacts, analyses to comply with
Executive Orders, and employment impacts.
Section 6 describes the small entity impact analyses and the Initial Regulatory
Flexibility Analysis (IRFA) prepared by EPA.
• Section 7 presents the benefits estimates.
• Section 8 presents the net benefits (benefits minus costs) for the alternatives analyzed
in this proposal.
Section 9 presents references for the RIA and documentation on the cost analysis and
estimates of costs and emission reductions for the proposal under each option beyond
2022.
1-5
-------
Table 1-1. Summary of the Monetized Benefits, Social Costs, and Net Benefits for the
Proposed Residential Wood Heaters NSPS in the 2014-2022 Time Frame
($2010 millions)3
3% Discount Rate
7% Discount Rate
Proposed Option
Total Monetized Benefits
Total Social Costs0
Net Benefits
Nonmonetized Benefits
Total Monetized Benefits'3
Total Social Costs'
Net Benefits
Nonmonetized Benefits
$1,700 to $3,700
$16
$1,700 To $3,700
$1,800 To $4,200
$15
$1,800 To $4,100
32,600 tons of CO
3,200 tons of VOC
Reduced exposure to HAPs, including formaldehyde, benzene, and polycyclic
organic matter
Reduced Climate effects due to reduced black carbon emissions
Ecosystem effects
Reduced visibility impairment
Alternative Option
$1,700 To $3,800
$28
$1,700 to $3,800
$1,900 To $4,200
$27
$1,800 To $4,200
32,900 tons of CO
3,200 tons of VOC
Reduced exposure to HAPs, including formaldehyde, benzene, and polycyclic
organic matter
Reduced Climate effects due to reduced black carbon emissions
Ecosystem effects
Reduced visibility impairment
All estimates reflect average annual estimates for the time frame from 2014 to 2022 inclusive, and are rounded to
two significant figures. These results include appliances anticipated to come online and the lowest cost disposal
assumption. Total annualized costs are estimated at a 7% and at a 3% interest rate.
The total monetized benefits reflect the human health benefits associated with reducing exposure to PM2 5 through
reductions of directly emitted PM2 5. It is important to note that the monetized benefits include many but not all
health effects associated with PM2 5 exposure. Benefits are shown as a range from Kreuski et al. (2009) to Lapeule
et al. (2012). These models assume that all fine particles, regardless of their chemical composition, are equally
potent in causing premature mortality because the scientific evidence is not yet sufficient to allow differentiation
of effect estimates by particle type. Because these estimates were generated using benefit-per-ton estimates, we do
not break down the total monetized benefits into specific components here. See Figure 7-1 for an illustration of
the breakdown, or the RIA for the final Cross-States Air Pollution Rule (EPA, 2011) for more information.
The annualized social costs are $14.8 million for the Proposed option at a 3% discount rate and $26.9 million for
the Alternative option when calculated at a 7% interest rate.
1-6
-------
SECTION 2
INTRODUCTION
2.1 Background for Proposed Rule
EPA is considering amending the New Source Performance Standard (NSPS) for new
residential wood heaters. EPA promulgated the original NSPS for new residential wood heaters
including wood stoves in 1988. Based on a review of the NSPS in 2009, EPA noted significant
technological improvements that allow emissions from these sources to be better controlled than
the current standard. Residential Wood remains one of the five largest categories of PM
emissions according to the 2008 National Emissions Inventory.2 Thus, EPA is proposing to
revise the current NSPS standards to improve regulation of wood heaters and broaden the new
regulation to cover other residential heating devices. Specifically, EPA is proposing to amend
subpart AAA, Standards of Performance for New Residential Wood Heaters. We are also
proposing two new subparts to address additional types of wood heating appliances—subpart
QQQQ, Standards of Performance for New Residential Hydronic Heaters and Forced-Air
Furnaces, and subpart RRRR, Standards of Performance for New Masonry Furnaces. The
following sections describe the major proposed provisions of each subpart. Full details on the
proposed provisions in each of these subparts can be found in the preamble for this proposal.
2.2 Room Heaters
The current wood heaters regulation (subpart AAA) applies to adjustable burn rate wood
heaters/stoves manufactured since 1988. We propose to broaden the applicability of the wood
heaters regulation beyond adjustable burn rate wood heaters (the focus of the original regulation)
to also specifically include single burn rate wood heaters, and pellet heaters/stoves. These and
any other affected appliance would be covered in subpart AAA as a "room heater." We believe
this "room heater" categorization better describes the appliances potentially affected under
subpart AAA and included in this proposal. Note that this RIA and the proposal use the
following terms interchangeably: heaters, stoves, and heaters/stoves. The current emission limits
under subpart AAA would remain in effect for the heaters/stoves and model lines manufactured
before the effective date of the final rule until their current EPA certification expires (maximum
of 5 years) or is revoked. After the certification expires or is revoked, these heaters and other
new heaters would have to meet updated emission standards. The proposed subpart AAA
exempts new residential hydronic heaters, new residential forced-air furnaces, and new
residential masonry heaters because they would be subject to their own subparts. The proposed
2 U.S. EPA, 2008 National Emissions Inventory. Accessed on Sept. 11, 2012.
2-1
-------
subpart AAA retains the exemption for fireplaces, strengthens the definition for "cookstoves,"
and adds definitions for "camp stoves" and "traditional Native American bake ovens" to clarify
that they would not be subject to the standard other than a requirement for appropriate labeling
for cookstoves and camp stoves. Finally, the proposal clarifies that the emission limits would
only apply to wood-burning devices (i.e., not to devices that solely burn fuels other than wood,
e.g., gas or oil or coal or other biomass). . In addition, this proposal does not include any
requirements associated with wood heaters or other wood-burning appliances that are already in
use. The EPA continues to encourage state, local, tribal, and consumer efforts to change out
(replace) older heaters with newer, cleaner, more efficient heaters, but that is not part of this
Federal rulemaking.
NSPS determinations of the best system of emission reductions (BSER), formerly
referred to as best demonstrated technology (BDT), must consider costs (see section II of the
preamble for more detail). The fact that this rule applies to consumer products manufactured for
sale results in cost considerations that are fundamentally different from most NSPS. Specifically,
the cost of potential lost revenues if production and sales had to be suspended while designing
and certifying cleaner models would be significant and necessitates reasonable, phased
implementation of emission limits. This was true in 1988 and is still true today. Thus, we
propose having a transition period so that stoves with currently effective EPA certification can
continue to be manufactured until the current certification expires (5 years from date of
certification) or is revoked by the Administrator, whichever date is earlier. Renewal of these
certifications would not be permitted. That is, in the near term, we are proposing to retain the
current 1990 PM emission limits for adjustable burn rate wood heaters and pellet stoves with a
current EPA certification issued prior to the effective date of the final rule. While EPA's top
priorities are to ensure that emission reductions occur in a timely manner and that there is no
backsliding from the improvements that many manufacturers have already made, we have also
sought to avoid unreasonable economic impacts on those manufacturers (over 95% of which are
small businesses) who need additional time to develop, test, field evaluate, and certify a full
range of cleaner models across their consumer product lines. In 1988, there were "logjam"
concerns about the capacity of accredited laboratories to conduct certifications tests and the time
for the EPA to review the tests and adequately assure compliance if all the NSPS requirements
were to be immediate. Those concerns have been expressed this time also. The proposed phased
implementation approach would help reduce those concerns. We ask for specific comments on
the length of this proposed transition and the degree to which there would be any critical
economic impacts on manufacturers who have heaters with current certifications if we were to
2-2
-------
allow less than the full 5-year certification period for model lines certified prior to the effective
date of this rule but the heaters are manufactured after the effective date of the final rule.
We are proposing a two-step, phased implementation approach (referred to herein as the
"Proposed Approach") that would apply to all new adjustable burn rate wood heaters, single burn
rate wood heaters and pellet heaters/stoves required to comply with the Step 1 emission limits
specified in the final rule. Under today's Proposed Approach, the Step 1 emision limits would
apply to each heater (1) manufactured on or after the effective date of the final rule or (2) sold at
retail on or after 6 months after the effective date of the final rule. Step 2 emission limits would
apply to each adjustable rate wood heater, single burn rate wood heater and pellet heater/stove
manufactured or sold 5 years after the effective date of the final rule. We ask for specific
comments on the Proposed Approach and the degree to which these dates could be sooner.
We are also asking for comments on an alternative three-step approach (referred to herein
as the "Alternative Approach") for all adjustable rate wood heaters, single burn rate wood
heaters and pellet heaters/stoves.. Under this Alternative Approach, Alternative Step 1 emission
limits would apply to each heater (1) manufactured on or after the effective date of the final rule
or (2) sold at retail on or after 6 months after the effective date of the final rule. The emission
levels for Step 1 and Alternative Step 1 are identical. Alternative Step 2 emission limits would
apply to each heater manufactured or sold on or after the date 3 years after the effective date of
the final rule.. Alternative Step 3 emission limits would apply to each heater manufactured or
sold on or after the date 8 years after the effective date of the final rule. The Proposed Approach
Step 2 emission limits and the Alternative Approach Step 3 emission limits are identical. We ask
for specific comments on this Alternative Approach and the degree to which these dates could be
sooner.
While the 1988 promulgated subpart AAA (53 FR 5860, February 26, 1988) included an
additional 1-year compliance extension for low volume manufacturers, i.e., companies that
manufacture (or export to the U.S.) fewer than 2,000 heaters per year, this proposal does not
include such a compliance extension. We are not proposing to extend this delay to adjustable
burn rate wood heaters or pellet heaters/stoves, because most of these appliances already meet
the proposed Step 1 emission levels. See section V.C. of the preamble for more discussion of this
topic. However, we are requesting comments on the possible need for such a compliance
extension for single burn rate wood heaters, which are not subject to the current subpart AAA
requirements.
2-3
-------
Table 2-1 summarizes the compliance deadlines and PM emissions standards that would
apply to each wood heater appliance under the Proposed Approach. Table 2-2 summarizes the
compliance deadlines and PM emissions standards that would apply to each wood heater
appliance under the Alternative Approach.
Table 2-1. Proposed Approach Subpart AAA Compliance Deadlines and PM Emissions
Limits
Appliance
Compliance Deadlines
PM
Emissions Limit
Adjustable Rate Wood Heaters
or Pellet Stoves with Current
EPA Certification Issued Prior
to Publication of Final Rule
All Other Adjustable Rate
Wood Heaters, Single Burn
Rate Wood Heaters or Pellet
Stoves (includes currently
certified heaters after the
certification expires, catalytic
and noncatalytic)
Transition period from 1988 rule
through the later of publication of final
revised rule or expiration of current
certification (maximum of 5 years
certification and no renewal)
Step 1: upon effective date of final rule) 4.5 g/hr
Step 2: 5 years after effective date n of
final rule) 1.3 g/hr
4.1 g/hr for catalytic stoves and 7.5
g/hr for noncatalytic stoves
Table 2-2. Alternative Approach Subpart AAA Compliance Deadlines and PM Emissions
Limits
Appliance
Compliance Deadlines
PM
Emissions Limit
Adjustable Rate Wood Heaters Transition period from 1988 rule through the 4.1 g/hr for catalytic stoves
or Pellet Stoves with Current later of publication of final revised rule or and 7.5 g/hr for noncatalytic
EPA Certification Issued Prior expiration of current certification (maximum of stoves
to Publication of Final Rule 5 years certification and no renewal)
Step 1: upon effective date of final rule 4.5 g/hr
Step 2: 3 years after effective date of final rule) 2.5 g/hr
All Other Adjustable Rate
Wood Heaters, Single Burn
Rate Wood Heaters or Pellet
Stoves (includes currently
certified heaters after the
certification expires, catalytic Step 3: 8 years after effective date of final
and noncatalytic) rule) 1.3 g/hr
We are proposing to have a single determination of BSER for both catalytic and
noncatalytic heater systems. As in 1988, the EPA again considered requiring catalyst
replacement on a regular schedule but determined that enforcement of such a requirement would
be difficult. As before, we are proposing to require manufacturers to provide warranties on the
catalysts and prohibit the operation of catalytic stoves without a catalyst. In addition, we are
2-4
-------
proposing to require warranties for noncatalytic stoves. We are not proposing efficiency
standards at this time, however, we are proposing to require testing and reporting of these data.
We are also proposing to require emission testing and reporting based on both crib wood
and cordwood for Step 1, while allowing manufacturers to choose whether to certify with crib
wood or cordwood for Step 1. For Step 2, we are requiring certifying with cordwood only. "Crib
wood" is a specified configuration and quality of dimensional lumber and spacers that was
intended to improve the repeatability of the test method required in the current Residential Wood
Heaters NSPS promulgated in 1988. "Cord wood" is a different specified configuration and
quality of wood that is intended today to more closely resemble what a typical homeowner
would use.
Our current data for CO emissions performance and methods of control are not
sufficiently robust to support strong CO emission limits, and it would delay the NSPS if we were
to seek additional data elsewhere at this time to support strong CO emission limits. Although we
lack sufficient data to propose a separate CO emissions standard at this time, we propose to
require that the manufacturer determine CO emissions during the compliance test and report
those results to the EPA. We specifically request emission and cost data for systems that reduce
CO emissions. If those systems warrant inclusion in the determination of BSER, we would
consider doing so. Also, we ask for specific comments on whether we should require indoor CO
monitors as a critical safety component for heaters installed in occupied buildings or other
buildings or enclosures in which the operator would enter to add fuel to the heater or conduct
other normal operation and maintenance of the heater.
Like the current subpart, the EPA is using its authority under Section 114 of the CAA to
require each manufacturer to submit certifications of compliance with this rule for all models and
all units. As in the 1988 rule, provided that the certifications are timely, complete, and accurate,
the EPA will allow certification of compliance with the PM emissions standards to be
determined based on testing of a representative unit within the model line rather than testing
every unit. As in 1988, the cost of testing each unit would be an order of magnitude greater than
the cost of a wood stove and would be economically prohibitive. Also, as in 1988, the testing of
each unit could create a potential "logjam" that would stymie the certification of cleaner model
lines. We recognize there is some concern that testing laboratories may not be able to meet the
demand for certification tests in the first few years. However, the availability of additional ISO-
accredited labs, the advance notice that industry has had concerning the NSPS prior to this
proposal, and the time between this proposal and the proposed implementation deadlines of the
final rule, should ensure that adequate compliance certification resources are available. In
2-5
-------
addition, to further respond to the concern regarding availability of testing laboratories, the
proposed subpart expands the definition of "Accredited Test Laboratory" from just EPA-
accredited laboratories to allow laboratories accredited by a nationally recognized accrediting
body to perform testing for each of the test methods specified in this NSPS under ISO-EC3
Standard 17025 to conduct the certification testing. The laboratories would have to register their
credentials with the EPA and report any changes in their accreditation and any deficiencies found
under ISO 17025. The EPA would review that information to approve (or deny or revoke) the
accreditation for the purpose of the determining compliance with the NSPS prior to the lab
conducting any certification testing or related work used as a basis for compliance with this rule.
To ensure a practical, orderly transition, the proposal retains the current "Administrator
Approval Process" to review the certification application, including test results, for the first year
following publication of the final rule. At that point or earlier if chosen by manufacturers, the
revised subpart would implement a "Certifying-Body-Based Certification Process." Under this
process, after testing is complete, a certification of conformity with the PM emissions standards
must be issued by a certifying body with whom the manufacturer has entered into contract for
certification services. Similar to the lab requirements, the certification body would have to be
accredited under ISO-IEC Standard 17065 and register their credentials with EPA and report any
changes in their accreditation and any deficiencies found under ISO 17065. The EPA would
review that information to approve (or deny or revoke) the accreditation for the purpose of the
determining compliance with the NSPS prior to the lab conducting any certification testing or
related work used as a basis for compliance with this rule. Upon review of the test report and
quality control plan submitted by the manufacturer, the approved certifying body may certify
compliance and submit the required documentation to the EPA's Office of Enforcement and
Compliance Assurance for review, approval and listing of the certified appliance.
As in the 1988 NSPS, each affected unit would be required to have an applicable
permanent label and have an owner's manual that contains specified information. We are
proposing that permanent labels be required for each affected unit effective on the date of
publication of the final rule. We proposing to no longer require showroom temporary labels
("hangtags") for each affected unit. This is a change from the existing 1988 NSPS, which
requires that all certified models be equipped with temporary hangtags. The intent of the 1988
temporary hangtag requirement was to highlight models that met the EPA standards. We believe
3 ISO, the International Organization for Standardization, and EC, the International Electrotechnical Commission,
prepare and publish international standards.
2-6
-------
adequate information on EPA certifications would be available on the EPA Burn Wise website,
the permanent label and the owner's manual. The proposal would clarify that the permanent label
must be installed so that it is readily visible both prior to and after the unit is installed. This
clarification is needed to document the use of complying heaters required by state and local rules
and/or to determine the unit's applicability to any future changeout programs.
We request specific comments on how to best assure that manufacturers and retailers and
online marketers of wood heaters only use valid certification test data and that regulators and
consumers have ready access to certification information. We request specific comments on
ways to improve the delivery of information and on whether different information might be
useful to the consumer and to the regulatory authorities. We also request specific comments on
what information and format might be most useful for the EPA to include on the EPA Burn wise
website, EPA's web portal for information on residential wood smoke emissions and ways to
reduce them, and wood burning appliances.
In addition to the PM emissions standards, certification and labeling requirements, we are
proposing to continue to require the proper burn practices that already apply to the owner or
operator of a wood heating appliance. That is, the 1988 standards already include the
requirement that the owner or operator must operate the heater consistent with the owner's
manual and not burn improper fuels. The proposed revision clarifies that the current requirement
to operate according to the owner's manual must continue to include a list of prohibited fuel
types that create poor or even hazardous combustion conditions and must include the direction
that pellet fuel appliances can be safely and effectively operated only with pellet fuels used in the
certification tests. We propose that pellets for the certification tests be only those that have been
produced under a licensing agreement with the Pellet Fuels Institute (PFI), or equivalent (after
request and subsequent approval by the EPA), to meet certain minimum requirements and
procedures for a quality assurance process.4 (Currently, PFI is the only organization that has
volunteered to conduct such a program.) We believe that these provisions are necessary to ensure
that the appliances operate properly such that emissions are reduced as intended. We ask for
specific comments on whether we should include other requirements of best burn practices or
adjustments to help ensure proper operation, e.g., chimney height and draft specifications,
moisture content of wood, and limits on visible emissions.
1 Details of the PFI program are available at http://pelletheat.org/pfi-standards/pfi-standards-program/.
2-7
-------
The proposed subpart still contains the crucial quality assurance provisions in the 1988
NSPS. The 1988 NSPS requirements for manufacturer quality assurance programs would be
maintained for 1 year following the effective date of the final rule. At that point, the
manufacturer would be required to adopt a Certifying-Body-Based Quality Assurance program.
The Certifying Body would conduct regular, unannounced audits to ensure that the
manufacturer's Quality Control Plan is being implemented properly.
The concepts of the EPA selective enforcement and random audit testing programs of the
current 1988 NSPS will be retained under the Proposed rule, although they will be streamlined
and simplified to better ensure compliance and to clarify that enforcement audits can be based on
any information the EPA has available and do not have to be statistically random. Also, we
clarify that the EPA and states are allowed to be present during the audits and that states may
provide the EPA with information to help the EPA compliance assurance efforts.
The EPA is proposing a number of revisions to certification testing for various
appliances. The EPA is proposing that updated and tailored versions of Method 28, a sampling
and analysis method to analyze wood stove emissions, be used for all of the appliances in this
rulemaking. The EPA developed Method 28 in 1987 and 1988 as part of our efforts on the 1988
NSPS. The manufacturers, laboratories, states, and the EPA have now had over 25 years of
experience with Method 28 and it has been very useful for certifying hundreds of model lines of
wood stoves. We asked the manufacturers, EPA-accredited laboratories, and states for their
insights on Method 28. Many stakeholders agree that changes should be made to improve the
reproducibility and repeatability of the test procedures and to address concerns about how to best
ensure protection across the entire U.S. when various operating scenarios are used and various
wood species and densities are used. For example, to address some of these concerns, ASTM,
formerly known as the American Society for Testing and Materials, has used a "consensus-
based" process to develop E2515-10 "Standard Method for Determination of Parti culate Matter
Emissions in a Dilution Tunnel." As with all test methods, there are opportunities for continual
improvement, and the EPA requests specific comments and supporting data for additional
potential improvements to E2515-10.
A number of states have expressed concern about ASTM's Intellectual Property Policy
which requires all participants to give their intellectual property rights to ASTM so that, in turn,
ASTM can control distribution of the drafts and final test methods and sell the final test methods
to potential users. Attorneys General for several states have indicated that state employees in
their states cannot give to ASTM the property rights for property that their states paid for via the
employee salaries and other expenditures and thus cannot participate in ASTM's "consensus-
2-8
-------
based" process. For this rulemaking, ASTM is allowing public review, for no charge, of the
ASTM test methods and draft work products relevant to this proposed rule at
www.astm.org/epa.The EPA requests specific comments and supporting data on the substance of
all of the test methods relevant to this rulemaking and specific comments on the ASTM process
and ways to ameliorate the process concerns.
ASTM methods E2779-10 "Standard Test Method for Determining Particulate Emissions
from Pellet Heaters" and E2780-10 "Standard Test Method for Determining Parti culate
Emissions from Wood Heaters", which are test methods used to determine average emissions
rates and average emissions factors for pellet heaters/stoves and wood heaters/stoves,
respectively, could potentially replace the wood heater fueling and operation requirements in
Method 28 for these heaters. Note that ASTM intends to use the same E2515-10 for the sampling
and analysis portion for all the appliances and then separate methods per appliance types for the
fueling and operation portions of these methods. The EPA believes that E2779-10 is a sound
method for measuring emissions from pellet stoves and includes reasonable measures to reduce
testing costs for continuously-fed appliances and today we are proposing its use. However,
because, as noted earlier, some states were not able to participate in the ASTM method
development process, we specifically request comments and supporting data of all aspects of not
only this test method but also all the proposed methods as part of the comments on today's
proposed rule.
Similarly, the EPA believes that ASTM Method E2780-10 includes improvements for
testing adjustable and single burn rate wood heaters, and we are proposing many of those
improvements. For example, we are proposing the use of the E2780-10 appendix for testing
single burn rate appliances. However, we, and some states, do not agree with all the changes that
ASTM has made for adjustable burn rate wood heaters, and some provisions are not as protective
as we, and some states, now believe they need to be. As noted above, several states are
concerned about how to best ensure that the methods are protective for the entire U.S.,
considering differences in wood species, density, and homeowner operation. The EPA and the
states are particularly concerned about scenarios in which stoves will have higher emissions in
homes than the emissions measured in the laboratories. For example, the states and the EPA are
concerned about the ASTM changes on burn rate categories, i.e., easing or eliminating the lowest
burn rates that often occur in home operations and are typically the dirtiest and least efficient.
The EPA is asking for specific comments on these issues and recommendations and supporting
data for other changes.
2-9
-------
In addition, ASTM has developed a draft test method that uses cordwood rather than crib
wood to better represent real world conditions. All stakeholders agree that a test method that
better represents real world conditions would be a significant improvement and help ameliorate
concerns that some heaters do not perform as well in the field as they do in laboratories. We are
also interested in real-time emission test methods that measure cold or warm start-up emissions
and emission peaks/durations. We are also interested in field test methods and less expensive test
methods that regulators and neighbor can use to better quantify impacts in the real world. The
EPA is asking for specific comments and data on all these potential methods, issues and
recommendations.
2.3 Central Heaters: Hydronic Heaters and Forced-Air Furnaces
The proposed subpart QQQQ would apply to new wood-fired residential hydronic heaters
and forced-air furnaces and any other affected appliance as defined in proposed subpart QQQQ
as a "central heater." These appliances are described in more detail in Section 3 of this RIA. We
believe this "central heater" categorization will ensure that all appliances potentially affected
under the proposed subpart QQQQ are properly included. The proposed provisions of subpart
QQQQ would apply to each affected unit that is manufactured or sold on the effective date of the
final rule. This proposal does not include any requirements for heaters that are fueled solely by
gas or oil or coal or non-wood biomass. In addition, this proposal does not include any
requirements associated with wood heaters that are already in use. The EPA continues to
encourage state, local, tribal, and consumer efforts to change out (replace) older heaters with
newer, cleaner, more efficient heaters, but that is not part of this Federal rulemaking.
The Proposed Approach (or Option) would apply to new residential hydronic heaters and
forced-air furnaces. Under the Proposed Approach, the Proposed Step 1 emission limit would be
upon the effective date of the final rule. The Proposed Step 2 emission limit would be 5 years
after the effective date of the final rule. We ask for specific comments on the Proposed Approach
and the degree to which these dates could be sooner.
We also considered an alternative three-step approach (Alternative Approach or Option)
for residential hydronic heaters and forced air heaters. As in the Proposed Approach, under this
Alternative Approach, the Alternative Step 1 emission limit would be upon the effective date of
the final rule. The Proposed Step 1 emission limit and the Alternative Approach Step 1 emission
limit are identical. The Alternative Step 2 emission limit would be 3 years after the effective date
of the final rule. This serves as an "interim" step on the way to the tighter emissions limits
included in Alternative Step 3. The Alternative Step 3 emission limit would be 8 years after the
2-10
-------
effective date of the final rule. The Proposed Step 2 emission limit and the Alternative Approach
Step 3 emission limit are identical. We ask for specific comments on this Alternative Approach
and the degree to which these dates could be sooner.
Table 2-3 summarizes the proposed compliance dates and PM emissions standards that
would apply under the Proposed Approach. Table 2-4 summarizes the compliance dates and PM
emissions standards that would apply under the Alternative Approach. Similar to subpart AAA,
we are not proposing a standard for CO or efficiency, but are proposing to require manufacturers
to collect and report CO emissions and efficiency data during certification tests.
Table 2-3. Proposed Approach Subpart QQQQ Compliance Dates and PM Emissions
Standards
Appliance
Compliance Date
Participate Matter Emissions Limits
Residential Hydronic
Heater
Forced-Air Furnace
Step 1 :Upon effective date of the final 0.32 Ib/MMBtu heat output and a cap of 7.5
rule) g/hr for individual test runs
Step 2: 5 years after effective date of 0.06 Ib/MMBtu
the final rule)
Step 1: Upon effective date of the final 0.93 Ib/MMBtu
rule)
Step 2: 5 years after effective date of 0.06 Ib/MMBtu
final rule)
Table 2-4. Alternative Approach Subpart QQQQ Compliance Dates and PM Emissions
Standards
Appliance
Compliance Date
Particulate Matter Emissions Limits
Residential Hydronic Heater Step 1 :Upon effective date of the
final rule)
0.32 Ib/MMBtu heat output and a cap of
7.5 g/hr for individual test runs
Step 2: (3 years after effective date 0.15 Ib/MMBt
of final rule)
Forced-Air Furnace
Step 3: 8 years after effective date 0.06 Ib/MMBtu
of the final rule)
Step 1: Upon effective date of the 0.93 Ib/MMBtu
final rule)
Step 2: 3 years after effective date
of final rule)
Step 3: 2022 (8 years after
0.15 Ib/MMBtu
2-11
-------
publication of final rule) 0.06 Ib/MMBtu
Unlike the subpart AAA requirements, the subpart QQQQ requirements would not
provide an additional time period for the sale of unsold units manufactured before the
compliance date nor do they include a small volume manufacturer compliance extension.5 We
ask for comments on the timing for implementation.
As in the current subpart AAA for wood heaters/stoves, we are proposing a list of
prohibited fuels because their use would cause poor combustion or even hazardous conditions.
We request comment on these requirements and data to support additional requirements, if
warranted. Also, as in the current subpart AAA for wood heaters/stoves, we are proposing that
the owner or operator must not operate the hydronic heater or forced-air furnace in a manner that
is inconsistent with the owner's manual. For pellet-fueled appliances, the proposal makes it clear
that operation according to the owner's manual includes operation only with pellet fuels that
have been used in the certification test and have been graded and marked under a licensing
agreement with the PFI, or equivalent (after request and subsequent approval by the EPA), to
meet certain minimum requirements and procedures for a quality assurance process. Details of
the PFI program are available at http://pelletheat.org/pfi-standards/pfi-standards-program/.
(Currently, PFI is the only organization that has volunteered to conduct such a program.) We
believe that these provisions are necessary to ensure that the appliances operate properly such
that emissions are reduced as intended. We ask for specific comments on the use of the PFI
program and the PFI specifications, especially the degree to which the PFI program will
adequately ensure the absence of construction and demolition waste (and associated toxic
contaminants) in pellets.
The proposed permanent labels and owner's manual requirements are similar to the
guidelines in the EPA's current voluntary hydronic heater program with some improvements.
We provide information on the number of models that currently meet the limits in the voluntary
hydronic heater program in Section 4. We request specific comments on ways to improve the
delivery of information on the permanent labels and in the owner's manual and the Burn Wise
website and whether additional information might be useful to the consumers and to the
regulatory authorities.
The structure of the rest of the proposed subpart QQQQ is similar to the proposed subpart
AAA certification and quality assurance process. We request specific comments on changes or
1 See section V.C. of the preamble for more discussion of this topic.
2-12
-------
improvements to that process that might be needed to address any special concerns related to the
certification of hydronic heaters and forced-air furnaces.
The EPA developed Method 28 OWHH (outdoor wood hydronic heaters) in 2006 as part
of our efforts for voluntary qualification of cleaner hydronic heaters. We received input at that
time from manufacturers, laboratories, and some states in order to quickly develop a mostly
consensus-based method that we incorporated into the program partnership agreements. We used
Method 28 for wood stoves as the foundation, and thus, Method 28 OWHH has many aspects
similar to Method 28. Three significant differences are (1) Method 28 OWHH uses larger cribs
because hydronic heater fireboxes are typically much larger than wood heater fireboxes, (2)
Method 28 OWHH uses red oak instead of Douglas fir because red oak is the more common fuel
in the U.S., and (3) Method 28 OWHH includes procedures for determining 8-hour heat output
and efficiency. The manufacturers, laboratories, states, and the EPA have now had over 7 years
of experience with Method 28 OWHH and its successor Method 28 WHH (wood hydronic
heaters, improved and expanded to include indoor heaters, not just outdoor heaters).
All the stakeholders that have provided input on the test methods agree that the methods
should be thoroughly vetted and changed as necessary to improve the methods' accuracy and
precision and to address concerns about how to best ensure real world protection across the
entire U.S. when various operating scenarios and wood species and densities are used. ASTM
has developed E2618-09, a test method that applies to wood-fired hydronic heaters, to address
some of these concerns, and the EPA believes that E2618-09 does include some improvements.
However, as with the wood stove methods, we and some states do not agree with all the changes
that ASTM has made. For example, the states of Washington and Oregon are very concerned that
Method 28 WHH and ASTM E2618-09 do not specify fueling with Douglas fir, which is used in
EPA Method 28 for wood stoves and which these states require in their regulations for
residential wood heaters, including hydronic heaters, and is used frequently in their states for fuel
in the real world. They are concerned that hydronic heaters tested with red oak will have higher
emissions when fueled with Douglas fir and other less dense species typical in their states. Also,
a number of states and the EPA are concerned about the ASTM changes to the burn rate
categories, i.e., easing or eliminating testing at the lowest burn rates which often occur in home
operations and are typically the dirtiest and least efficient. For several years, we have been
communicating with European certification laboratories to learn how they conduct their tests
under EN 303-5, a European Union test protocol for wood-burning appliances, and to consider if
incorporating some of their testing procedures might improve our test methods.
2-13
-------
More recently, because of initial concerns about some surprisingly high laboratory test
efficiencies for a couple of the EPA voluntary program Phase 2 qualified partial heat storage
models, the EPA, the Northeast states that regulate hydronic heaters, laboratories (including
EPA-accredited laboratories and Brookhaven National Laboratory), and manufacturers have
conducted an exhaustive review of voluntary program qualifying test reports. All of the
stakeholders that provided input on the test methods agree that we need a change in the test
method for testing of non-integral partial heat storage models (i.e., models that have separate
heat storage but the storage does not have the capacity to safely handle all the heat generated by
a full load of fuel). ASTM has been leading an effort to develop an Appendix X2 , which is
additional guidance as support, to the test method for such models but has not completed that
effort as of today's proposal. Brookhaven National Laboratory has recommended a method to the
New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (NYSDEC) and NYSDEC is using
that method for certification of such models in their state. EPA is proposing that method be used
for certification of the NSPS for hydronic heaters equipped with a heat storage unit.6
Further, we are proposing revisions to Method 28 WHH that would require that all
affected non-pellet hydronic heaters, subject to new subpart QQQQ, conduct and report
certification testing using both crib wood and cordwood for the Step 1 emission limits and then
choose which they want to use for compliance. For other than pellet-fueled heaters, the
compliance tests would be solely cordwood for the Step 2 emission limits.
We are asking for specific comments on whether the EPA should use (1) one or more of
the draft versions of Appendix X2 being considered as part of ASTM work product WK26581,
which is a revision to the existing E2618-09 test method for measuring emissions from outdoor
hydronic heaters; (2) the European Union test method EN 303-05 as the Maine Department of
Environmental Protection approved for certification of hydronic heaters in their state as
equivalent to the EPA Method 28 WHH; (3) the use of the NYSDEC partial thermal storage test
method; and/or (4) some other test method. For use of any of the test methods, the EPA would
require that the amount of heat storage for the actual sale and installation of the hydronic heaters
be no less than the amount used for the certification tests. Because EN303-05 does not currently
utilize heat storage during the certification test, if the EPA were to use EN303-05 test results, the
EPA would require the installed heater to have heat storage that can safely handle at least 60% of
the maximum heat output of the heater or a greater level if the manufacturer specifies a greater
level. The EPA is asking for specific comments on the appropriateness of this heat storage level
'See footnote 19.
2-14
-------
or other levels. The EPA will consider any or all of these options as the preferred reference test
methods or as acceptable emission testing alternatives. (ASTM previously developed an
Appendix XI, an additional part to the test protocol, for testing of models that have "full" heat
storage that can safely accept the heat from the full load of fuel.) We request comments on all
aspects of heater testing and are especially interested in emission test data that compare the
results for testing by these different methods.
The exhaustive review discussed above found a number of areas in the methods to
improve the quality of the data and reduce anomalies. In June 2011, the voluntary program
stakeholders agreed to a number of changes to Method 28 OWHH, and we are proposing the
revised method today as EPA Reference Method 28 WHH. The EPA is asking for specific
comments on this method and recommendations and supporting data for other changes or
acceptable alternatives. Additional information on the EPA methods is available at
www.epa.gov/burnwise and the ASTM methods and draft work products are available at
www.astm.org/epa.
As for wood heaters/stoves under Subpart AAA, ASTM is developing hydronic heater
test methods that use cordwood instead of crib wood in order to better represent real world
conditions. The proposed Step 2 of subpart QQQQ will require testing using cord wood. The
EPA requests specific comments and data to support the ASTM cord wood methods and/or other
cord wood test methods.
The EPA is proposing to rely on the test method B415.1-10 that has been developed by
the Canadian Standards Association (CSA) for forced-air furnaces. All CSA standards are
developed through a consensus development process approved by the Standards Council of
Canada This process brings together volunteers representing varied viewpoints and interests to
achieve consensus and develop a standard. CSA worked for years on development of this test
method that has its roots in earlier U.S. efforts on wood stoves. The current version of CSA
B415.1-10 was published in March 2010, and it includes not only the forced-air furnace test
method but also new Canadian emission performance specifications for indoor and outdoor
central heating appliances.
Although the CSA B415.1-10 technical committee included 32 individuals, including
numerous U.S. manufacturers and laboratories, it did not include any states or environmental
groups, and the EPA participation was minimal. Nevertheless, we are satisfied that this CSA
method warrants proposal for this rulemaking and we request specific comments and supporting
data. We ask for specific comments on the appropriateness of using the CSA test method in its
2-15
-------
entirety, including the use of cordwood instead of cribs that are used in current versions of
Method 28 and Method 28 WHH. To review the CSA test method, please go to www.csa.ca.
2.4 New Residential Masonry Heaters
The proposed subpart RRRR would apply to new residential masonry heaters. A masonry
heater is a site-built or site-assembled, solid-fueled heating device constructed mainly of
masonry materials in which the heat from intermittent fires burned rapidly in its firebox is stored
in its massive structure for slow release to the building. It has an interior construction consisting
of a firebox and heat exchange channels built from refractory components.. We are proposing
that, as of the effective date of the final rule, no person would manufacture or sell a residential
masonry heater that does not meet the proposed emission limit of 0.32 Ib of PM per MMBtu heat
output. We are also proposing a 5-year small volume manufacturer compliance extension that
would apply to companies that construct fewer than 15 masonry heaters per year. See section
V.C. of the preamble for more discussion of compliance date related issues. We request specific
comments on the degree to which these dates can be sooner. As in the case of the other proposed
standards, we are proposing requirements that would apply to the operator of the masonry heater,
including a provision to operate the unit in compliance with the owner's manual; a prohibition on
use of certain fuels; and a requirement to use licensed wood pellets or equivalent, if applicable.
We are not proposing efficiency standards for new residential masonry heaters at this time
because data are not yet available to support the basis for such standards. As in the case of the
other proposed standards, this masonry heaters proposal does not include any requirements for
heaters that are fueled solely by gas or oil or coal or non-wood biomass. Also as in the case of
the other proposed standards, this masonry heaters proposal does not include any requirements
associated with heaters already in use.
The EPA is proposing to rely on ASTM test method E2817-11. The laboratories, some
states, and many in the masonry heater industry worked for years on drafts of this method that
has its roots in earlier regulatory efforts in Colorado. The EPA has participated in the discussions
from time to time over the years and has provided comments and suggestions. There have been a
number of variations of similar methods over the years. The current ASTM drafts are ASTM
E2817-11 "Standard Test Method for Test Fueling Masonry Heaters" and ASTM WK26558
"Specification for Calculation Method for Custom Designed, Site-built Masonry Heaters." (see
http://www.astm.org/DATABASE.CARTAVORKITEMS/WK26558.htm for method). We are
encouraged by the progress shown by development of these current draft ASTM methods and
propose that they be used for this rulemaking. We request specific comments on these draft
methods and any changes that should be considered and supporting data for those changes. We
2-16
-------
request specific comments and supporting emission test data on the use of "Annex Al.
Cordwood Fuel" and "Annex A2. Cribwood Fueling." ASTM is allowing public review, for no
charge, of the ASTM test methods and draft work products relevant to this rule at
www.astm.org/epa.
As an alternative to testing, we are proposing that manufacturers of masonry heaters
submit a computer model simulation program, such as ASTM WK 26558 noted above for the
EPA's review and approval.
The structure of the rest of the proposed subpart RRRR is similar to the proposed subpart
AAA certification and quality assurance process and contains similar requirements for labels,
owner's manual, etc. One difference, however, is that, for small custom unit manufacturers, we
are requiring less stringent QA procedures. Specifically, we are proposing that the initial
certification for these custom units is sufficient and that no further QA regulatory requirements
are necessary because each unit is a unique model and subject to certification. We request
comment on changes or improvements that might be needed to address special concerns related
to certification of masonry heaters.
2-17
-------
SECTION 3
INDUSTRY PROFILE
The proposed revisions to the NSPS for residential wood heaters would cover a number
of devices that include wood stoves/heaters, pellet stoves/heaters; masonry heaters; indoor and
outdoor hydronic heaters and forced-air furnaces. (This RIA and the proposal use the terms
stove, heater, and stove/heater interchangeably.) EPA has developed this industry profile to
provide the reader with a general understanding of the technical and economic aspects of the
industries that would be directly affected by potential revisions to the NSPS regulation for new
residential wood heaters and to offer information relevant to preparing an economic impact
analysis (EIA) for this proposed revision to the NSPS. We begin by outlining the supply side by
discussing the production process for wood heaters and the associated costs and follow this with
an overview of the demand side of the market for residential wood heaters as a primary or
secondary home heating system. We then address the characteristics that define the residential
wood heating market and profile the companies that produce wood heating systems. Although
the wood heating equipment industry includes multiple product markets, there is little published
information about the intricacies of each individual market. For this profile, we analyzed the
wood heating market primarily on an aggregated level and provide detailed information for
specific product markets when such information is available.
3.1 Supply Side
Wood heating devices embody a variety of products that provide heat for residential
consumers by burning wood or other solid biomass fuel. Indoor wood-burning devices can
provide space heating for a single room or can be central heaters for a residential home. Indoor
heating devices include freestanding wood stoves, pellet stoves, masonry heaters, fireplace
inserts, and forced-air furnaces. Outdoor wood heating devices, also known as outdoor wood
boilers, or water stoves, are typically located adjacent to the home they heat in small sheds with
short smoke stacks. Other products considered in the development of potential proposed
revisions of this NSPS (but not proposed to be regulated in this rulemaking) include low-mass
fireplaces, open masonry fireplaces, fireplaces, fire pits, chimineas, cook stoves, and pizza
ovens.
This section provides a general description of the residential wood heater manufacturing
processes. We then provide more detailed definitions of the indoor and outdoor wood heater
products considered and the wood fuels used in their operation.
3-1
-------
3.1.1 Production Process
The manufacturing process for residential wood heaters varies depending on the product
type being produced. Generally, the manufacturing process entails the assembly of several
prefabricated metal components. Major inputs include cast iron, metal products, heat-proof glass,
fireproof fabric insulation, refractory brick, and heat-tolerant enamels or coatings.
Wood heating devices are typically categorized by emissions and efficiency ratings. The
emissions ratings typically use EPA, ASTM, CSA, or EN (European Union) test methods. The
efficiency ratings are based on tests that measure the amount of heating value transferred from a
full load of wood or other biomass fuel (fuel type varies based on the product being tested) to the
living space. Efficiency tests evaluate two performance metrics that include combustion and heat
transfer efficiency. Combustion efficiency determines how effective the fire box design is at
burning the fuel and extracting its heating value. Heat transfer efficiency tests are potentially
conducted in calorimeter rooms equipped with temperature sensors to measure the degree
changes in the heated living space and the flue exhaust to determine how much heat from the fire
is delivered to the living space compared with the heat lost up the flue (EPA, 2009c).
Thermal output, typically expressed in British thermal units per hour (BTU/hr) in the
United States, is the heat output measure that tells the amount of heat produced each hour. A
higher BTU/hr rate suggests that a stove will produce more heat per hour than a stove with a
lower rating. Depending on design and size characteristics, a space heating device heat output
rating ranges between 8,000 and 90,000 BTU/hr. Larger heating systems designed to provide
whole home heating have heat output ratings that range from 100,000 to greater than one million
BTU/hr.
3.1.2 Product Types
3.1.2.1 Wood and Coal Stoves
EPA-certified wood stoves typically are enclosed combustion devices that provide direct
space heating for a specific room or area of a home.7 Catalytic and noncatalytic wood stoves are
two general types of wood stoves available in the United States. (Some models are hybrids.) This
designation refers to the design of the combustion system. Noncatalytic combustion systems rely
on high temperatures (>1,000°F) within the fire box to fully combust the chemical compounds
(combustible gases and particles) in the wood smoke. In catalytic combustion systems, the
7 EPA-certified wood stoves are those wood stoves that meet the requirements under the current residential wood
heater NSPS.
3-2
-------
presence of the catalytic element lowers the temperature at which wood smoke chemical
compounds combust. Catalytic elements or combustion system designs in noncatalytic
combustion systems are used in existing stoves to meet EPA emission standards.
Coal stoves are similar in structure and appearance to wood stoves. Most coal stoves are
designed to burn hard anthracite coal instead of soft bituminous coal (Houck, 2009), but different
varieties of coal have been used in coal stoves over time. Stoves that solely burn coal are not
affected by the proposed revisions to the NSPS.
3.1.2.2 Wood Pellet Stoves and Biomass Stoves
Wood pellet and other biomass stoves are similar in application to wood stoves but
generate heat through pellet combustion. Wood pellet stoves use tightly compacted pellets of
wood as fuel, whereas other biomass stoves can use a variety of pellet types, including corn, fruit
pits, and cotton seed (EPA, 2009c). A load of pellets is poured into the stove's hopper; then the
user sets a thermostat that controls a feed device within the stove. The feed device regulates the
amount of fuel that is released from the hopper into the heating chamber, which is where the
combustion takes place (EPA, 2009c). Pellet stoves are typically more efficient in terms of
combustion and heating than standard wood stoves but require electricity to operate the fans,
controls, and pellet feeders (EPA, 2009c). Stoves that solely burn non-wood biomass are not
affected by the proposed revisions to the NSPS.
3.1.2.3 Masonry Heaters
A masonry heater is a solid-fueled heating device that is pre-manufactured or constructed
on site using mainly masonry or ceramic materials (Masonry Heater Association of North
America, 1998). Though masonry heaters and traditional fireplaces are similar in appearance,
masonry heaters are used primarily to generate heat, whereas fireplaces typically serve a more
aesthetic purpose. The heater itself is made up of an interior construction unit consisting of a
firebox and a set of heat exchange channels (Chernov, 2008). The hot gas produced during rapid
combustion of fuel within the firebox passes through the heat exchange channels, which run
throughout the structure and saturate the masonry mass with heat (Chernov, 2008). Most
masonry heaters weigh over 800 kg. After the masonry walls are saturated, the masonry heater
radiates the heat into the area for 12 to 15 hours (Chernov, 2008). Masonry heaters can heat a
home all day without having to burn continuously and are often used in areas where other fuel
sources are unavailable (Chernov, 2008). However, there is a significant lag time between the
initial burn and the time that the masonry structure releases sufficient heat to warm a living space
(U.S. Department of Energy [DOE], 2010).
3-3
-------
3.1.2.4 Fireplace Inserts
A fireplace insert is a type of heater/stove that is designed to fit inside the firebox of an
existing wood-burning fireplace (Wood Heat Organization, 2010). EPA-certified fireplace inserts
are essentially wood heaters/stoves without legs or pedestals. An insert is made of steel or cast
iron and is typically installed in masonry fireplaces or traditional fireplaces in order to provide
effective heating (Hearth, Patio, and Barbeque Association [HPBA], 2010b). As an insulated
closed-door system, a fireplace insert improves combustion by slowing down the fire, decreasing
the excess air, and increasing the fire's temperature (HPBA, 201 Ob). In addition to wood-fueled
fireplace inserts, other inserts can be fueled with natural gas, propane, pellets, or coal (HPBA,
201 Ob).
3.1.2.5 Forced Air Furnaces
A forced-air furnace is a type of central heating system that typically burns cordwood or
pellets. A forced-air furnace is typically located inside a house and provides controlled heat
throughout a home using a network of air ducts (EPA, 2009c). This is a primary heating system
that requires electricity to operate and is much more common currently in the U.S. compared to
hydronic heaters.
3.1.2.6 Outdoor Wood Heaters
An outdoor wood heater, also often called a wood-fired boiler, is a type of hydronic
heater that is designed to be the home's primary heating system. Wood boilers are typically
located outdoors and have the appearance of a small shed with a smokestack (EPA, 2009 c).
Hydronic heaters burn wood to heat a working liquid contained in a closed-loop system. The
heated liquid is then circulated to the house to provide heat and hot water (EPA, 2009). Hydronic
heaters are typically sold in areas with cold climates where wood may be the most readily
available fuel source (EPA, 2009c). In addition to outdoor hydronic heaters, there is an emerging
market for indoor hydronic heaters. Currently, the indoor hydronic heater market is
approximately 10% of the hydronic heater market.
3.1.2.7 Indoor and Outdoor Fireplaces
Fireplaces are typically not effective heating sources and are typically considered more of
an aesthetic feature than a functional device. The common low-mass fireplace is pre-fabricated
of steel in a factory and shipped to the home builder. A low-mass fireplace and its attached
chimney are light enough to be weighed on a platform scale (EPA, 2009c). Although low-mass
fireplace installations in homes often surrounded by natural or synthetic facades of masonry-like
materials, they should not be confused with masonry fireplaces or masonry heaters that are
3-4
-------
primarily constructed if brick, stone, or other masonry materials. Masonry fireplaces are
traditional, aesthetic fireplaces that do not have the extensive heat channels that define masonry
heaters (Fireplaces & Woodstoves, 2010).
Fireplaces are also often used to enhance the outdoor area of a house. A portable grated
cylinder style has a bottom basin surrounded by open grating for a fire, a cooking grate, and a lid
(EPA, 2009c). A permanent outdoor fireplace is similar to one that would be found indoors.
They can be freestanding or attached to the outside of the house (EPA, 2009c).
Indoor and outdoor fireplaces are not covered by or affected by the proposed revisions to
theNSPS.
3.1.2.8 Fire Pits, Chimineas, Cook Stoves, and Pizza Ovens
Several outdoor appliances involve using wood fuel for cooking or heating. A fire pit is a
round outdoor hearth appliance that is designed to replicate the ambiance of a campfire by
radiating heat in 360 degrees around the pit (UPBA, 2010c). A chiminea is typically constructed
out of cast iron, terra cotta, or clay and burns firewood inside the internal oven. As the fire burns,
the walls of the oven absorb heat. After the dome chamber reaches the desired temperature, the
fire can be allowed to die down (EPA, 2009c). Wood cook stoves are made of cast iron to
withstand the high temperatures produced by the fire (EPA, 2009c). They are similar in
appearance to a conventional stove, complete with an oven and cooking ranges, but are larger in
order to accommodate the wood fuel (EPA, 2009c). North American traditional cook stoves have
defined dimensions and cooking performance characteristics. Native American bake ovens have
defined cultural and cooking functions. Pizza ovens are made out of a masonry material, such as
clay adobe or refractory bricks, which can endure high temperatures for an extended period of
time (EPA, 2009c).
These appliances are not covered or affected by the revisions to the NSPS.
3.1.3 Costs of Production
Because of the variety of products covered under the wood heat source category, different
manufacturers use a wide range of materials and have varying labor requirements. Since there is
significant diversity in output between the producers in this category, as well as the broader
industries in which they may be classified for data purposes, this section highlights the
production costs associated with several of the North American Industry Classification System
(NAICS) codes under which a significant number of the wood heating equipment manufacturing
facilities in our database are included.
3-5
-------
Table 3-1 displays costs for the heating equipment and hardware manufacturing
industries. The production of devices like wood stoves, hydronic heaters, and fireplace inserts is
included under the heating equipment category (NAICS 333414). In 2011, the total cost of
materials used for production represented roughly 47% of the industry's total value of shipments,
3-6
-------
Table 3-1. Costs for Labor and Materials for U.S. Heating Equipment and Hardware Manufacturing: 2011
NAICS-
Based
Code
333414
332510
Source: U.
Meaning of
NAICS-Based
Code
Heating
Equipment (except
warm air furnace)
Hardware
Manufacturing
Year
2011
2011
Number of
Employees
Annual
Payroll
($1,000)
15,925 803,254
24,406 1,
.S. Census Bureau. 201 la. American Fact Finder.
Industries: 201 land 2010
. http:
175,743
Sector 31:
Production
Workers
Average per
Year
9,497
16,956
Annual Survey
//factf inder. census . go v. Accessed on February
Total Cost
of
Materials
($1,000)
1,968,956
3,362,268
Materials,
Parts,
Containers,
Packaging,
etc., Used
($1,000)
1,639,894
2,731,577
Cost of
Purchased
Fuels
($1,000)
10,840
21,592
of Manufactures: General Statistics: Statistics
21,2013.
Cost of
Purchased
Electricity
($1,000)
41,594
52,530
Total
Value of
Shipments
($1,000)
4,153,470
6,256,338
for Industry Groups and
-------
while labor costs (represented as annual payroll estimates) only represented 19%. The hardware
manufacturing industry (NAICS 332510) had similar statistics: materials used and annual payroll
accounted for 54% and 19% of the total value of shipments, respectively.
Masonry fireplace construction and other site-assembled fireplace construction are
covered under the two industries displayed in Table 3-2. The new single-family construction
general contractors industry (NAICS 236115) covers a broad spectrum of construction activities
beyond masonry and fireplace construction. Like heating equipment and hardware
manufacturing, this industry is highly capital intensive; 42% of the value of the construction
work is attributed to the cost of materials. Labor accounts for only 12%. For the masonry
contractor industry, however, payroll costs represent over 30% of the value of construction work
suggesting that masonry contracting requires a special skill set and a specific degree of
craftsmanship.
The 2007 production costs for plumbing and heating equipment wholesalers (NAICS
423720), which are the most recent available from the Census Bureau, are outlined in Table 3-3.
This category, which includes the merchant wholesale production of cooking and heating stoves
and hydronic heaters, made over $50 billion in sales in 2007. Table 3-4 displays the costs for
certain home furnishing stores, including those that sell wood stoves at retail prices. The costs
for these industries may be more indicative of the wholesale and retail exchanges of wood-
heating equipment rather than the actual production process.
3.2 Demand Side
The subject wood-fired heaters are sold explicitly for residential use. These devices can
be included in the original construction of a new home or installed later in the life of the home.
Demand for residential wood heating devices is driven by several key factors that include size,
price, efficiency, aesthetics, and fuel type (e.g., cord wood, pellet wood, or other biomass fuels).
However, consumer demand for any one product discussed in Section 3.1 is driven primarily by
the intended end-use heating application. This section defines the three major consumer
segments that drive demand based on the end-use application. Following this discussion, we
present some national statistics on the variation in residential wood heat consumers in the United
States. We conclude our discussion of the demand side by characterizing some of the substitutes
for residential wood-burning devices.
3-8
-------
Table 3-2. Costs for U.S. Masonry Contractors and Single-Family Home Contractors: 2007
Cost of Materials, Total Value of
NAICS-Based Meaning of NAICS-Based Components, and Construction Work
Code Code Year Number of Employees Total Payroll ($1,000) Supplies ($1,000) ($1,000)
236115
238140
New single-family general
contractors
Masonry contractors
2007
2007
259,905
232,315
10,834,064
8,250,581
37,676,878
8,594,565
89,282,708
26,984,381
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2010b. American Fact Finder. Sector 23: EC0723SG01: Construction: Summary Series: General Summary: Detailed Statistics for
Establishments: 2007. Released May 18, 2010. http: //factfinder. census. go v.
Table 3-3. Costs for U.S. Plumbing and Heating Equipment Supplies Wholesalers: 2007
NAICS-Based Number of Annual Payroll Operating Expenses Sales
Code Meaning of NAICS-Based Code Year Employees ($1,000) ($1,000) ($1,000)
£ 423720 Plumbing and heating equipment 2007 87,907 4,542,337 8,311,462 50,316,133
supplies (hydronics) merchant
wholesalers
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010c. American Fact Finder. Sector 42: EC0742A1: Wholesale Trade: Geographic Area Series: Summary Statistics forthe United
States, States, Metro Areas, Counties, and Places: 2007. Released July 23, 2010. http://factfmder.census.gov.
Table 3-4. Costs for U.S. Specialized Home Furnishing Stores: 2007
NAICS-Based Number of Annual Payroll Sales
Code Meaning of NAICS-Based Code Year Employees ($1,000) ($1,000)
442299 All other home furnishing stores 2007 19,057 3,427,682 27,326,976
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010A. American Fact Finder. Sector 44: EC0744A1: Retail Trade: Geographic Area Series: Summary Statistics for the United
States, States, Metro Areas, Counties, and Places: 2007. Released July 23, 2010. http: //factfinder. census. go v.
-------
3.2.1 End- Use Consumer Segments
The intended end-use heating application is a primary driver of demand for residential
heating devices. The U.S. Annual Housing Survey (HUD, 2008) provides a starting point for
classifying the various types of residential consumer of heating equipment. For the purposes of
this profile we grouped consumers into three major segments based on their desired heating
needs: whole-house heating, secondary or zone heating, and recreational outdoor heating
applications.
The primary, or whole-house heating segment, includes homes with no other central
heating system that can provide heating service in or outside the house. In smaller homes, a large
stove or masonry heater may be sufficient to provide heat to the entire house. However, larger
homes typically require, either individually or in some combination thereof, an outdoor wood
boiler, a hydronic heater, or a pellet-burning forced-air furnace, to meet the consumers' heating
needs.
The secondary, or zone heating segment, includes consumers that desire supplemental
heat from a wood-burning device in homes with an existing central heating system that serves as
the home's primary heat source. Cordwood and wood pellet-burning stoves are ideal for heating
a single room or zone within a home. Smaller masonry heaters are also well suited for zone
heating needs.
Finally, a third component of demand is represented by consumers who desire a wood-
burning device for recreational aesthetic applications. Outdoor fireplaces, chimineas, outdoor
ovens, and pizza stoves are some examples of the wood-burning devices designed for
recreational applications. The products that address the needs of this consumer segment are
primarily intended to enhance the aesthetics or landscape outside the home. Indoor fireplaces
typically serve aesthetic or recreational purposes rather than providing effective room heat. Only
about 9% of wood fireplaces are used for heat generation (HPBA, 2010a).
3.2.2 Regional Variation in Residential Demand
In 2010, 2.1% of total occupied homes in the United States relied on wood heat as the
primary fuel source for home heating. The demand for wood heat is concentrated in the
Northeast, the Northwest, and the northern Midwest regions of the United States. Table 3-5
3-10
-------
Table 3-5. Wood as Primary Fuel Source for Home Heating in the United States: 2006-
2008
State
California
New York
Pennsylvania
Washington
Michigan
Wisconsin
Oregon
Ohio
Virginia
North Carolina
Minnesota
Maine
Indiana
West Virginia
Idaho
Colorado
Vermont
Massachusetts
Montana
New Hampshire
Top 20 total
National total
Percentage of State Owner-
Occupied Houses
2%
3%
3%
6%
3%
5%
8%
2%
3%
2%
3%
10%
2%
7%
8%
2%
15%
2%
9%
7%
Percentage of National
Owner-Occupied Houses
9%
6%
6%
5%
5%
5%
4%
4%
3%
3%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
1%
68% 1,
100% 1,
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2009. American Community Survey: 2006-2008. Available at:
http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/DatasetMainPageServlet? program=ACS& submenuRH
Count
165,440
103,740
100,355
92,664
85,712
83,040
79,637
67,665
60,579
58,397
43,234
41,509
38,550
38,142
32,817
28,668
26,601
25,870
24,355
24,071
221,046
792,741
& lang=en&
ts=.
illustrates this regional concentration by listing the 20 states that represent the highest percentage
of households that use wood heat based on Census data from 2006-2008. The second column
shows the number of wood-heat users as a percentage of the total homes in the state, while the
third column shows the number of wood-heated homes as a percentage of the total users in the
United States. These 20 states account for over two-thirds of the total primary U.S. residential
wood heat demand.
3-11
-------
About 10-12% of American households use wood when secondary wood heat demand is
counted, according to the Census and the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Table 3-6
illustrates the regional breakdown of secondary wood heat demand by U.S. Census divisions in
2009, which is the most recent year for which these data are available. Roughly 8% of the
American households use wood as a secondary heat source.
Table 3-6. Wood as Secondary Heat Source by Census Division, 2009 (millions of
households)
Percentage of U.S.
Households using
Wood as Secondary Percentage of Total
Census Division Number of Households Heat Source U.S. Households
South Atlantic
Pacific
East North Central
West North Central
West South Central
Mountain
Middle Atlantic
East South Central
New England
Grand total
Total U.S. households
1.6 18%
1.7 19%
1.2 14%
0.8 9%
0.7 8%
0.8 9%
1.0 11%
0.4 4%
0.7 8%
8.8 100%
113.6
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2011. Residential Energy Consumption Survey:
at http://www.eia.gov/consumption/residential/data/2009/fandefmed.
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
0%
8%
2009. Available
Figure 3-1 shows which states fall into which Census divisions. More households rely on
wood fuel as a supplemental heat source rather than as a primary source. Roughly 12% of
American households used wood fuel for a secondary heat source in 2009, whereas 3% of
households relied on wood for their primary heat source in the same year. The proportion of the
population using primary wood heat was relatively consistent between 2005 data presented in
Table 3-6 and the 2006 to 2008 period, as shown in Table 3-5.4 One interesting note about
4 Although the total occupied households between the Department of Energy's Residential Energy Consumption
Survey [RECS] and the Census Bureau's American Community Survey [ACS] differ, the proportion of total
occupied households using wood fuel as their primary home heating fuel is consistent. The survey data sources
used in Table 3-6 assumes 111 million occupied homes in 2009 while Figure 2-2 assumes 109 million for the
same year.
3-12
-------
jn
Census Regions and Divisions of the United States
NORTHEAST
Figure 3-1. Census Regions and Divisions of the United States
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010e. Census Regions and Divisions of the United States. Available at
http://www. census. gov/geo/www/us_regdiv.pdf.
secondary wood fuel use is that it does not appear prevalent in the Middle Atlantic or New
England states, which account for only 19% of the total secondary use. This fact is in contrast to
the primary use data in Table 3-5, which shows households in Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine,
Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, and New York accounting for 17% of the total national primary
demand.
Within the wood heat demand constituency, there is also regional demand variation for
different wood-fueled appliances. For example, the demand for wood-fired forced-air furnaces is
concentrated primarily in the Great Lakes region of the country and, to a lesser extent, the
Midwest (HPBA, 2010a). These two regions account for 82% of the 30,000 to 35,000 furnaces
sold annually in the United States (HPBA, 2010a). Demand for wood-fueled cook stoves is
concentrated in the Amish and Mennonite communities in the Midwest (HPBA, 2010a).
3.2.3 National Home Heating Trends
Residential demand for wood fuel has been declining steadily throughout the United
States over a fairly long period of time. Figure 3-2 illustrates the number of households from
1989 to 2005 that reported using wood fuel for heating, cooking, or heating water. In 1989,
3-13
-------
c
D
M
C
o
•a
OJ
'5.
o
15
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
Year
Figure 3-2. Declining Trend in U.S. Housing Units Using Wood Fuel: 1989-2005
Source: U.S. Housing and Urban Development [HUD]. 2008. American Housing Survey for the United States.
Multiple Years. Table 3-5. Available at http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/ahs/nationaldata.html.
roughly 15% of all occupied housing units used wood fuel. The proportion of wood-fuel users
has declined relatively steadily throughout the past 20 years. By 2005, fewer than 9% of the total
109 million occupied households in the United States used wood fuel for heating, cooking, or
heating water.
The indoor fireplace market illustrates the continuing decline in wood fuel use over the
past decade (HPBA, 2010a). As discussed in the next section, consumers are trending toward gas
fireplaces instead of wood-fueled fireplaces. Fireplace manufacturers report that shipments of
wood-fired factory-built fireplaces have been declining over the past decade as a result of the
weakening new home construction market and the shift in consumer preferences toward gas
fireplaces in the new homes that are being built (HPBA, 2010a). Of new home fireplaces, only
35% burn wood, whereas 65% are fueled by gas (HPBA, 2010a). It should be noted, however,
that this trend has been arrested to some degree in recent times as the cost of wood fuel for
heater/stove/furnace heating has come in line with the cost of oil and gas stove/heater/furnace
heating, and trends show an increase in wood heating in households as shown in the unit cost
memo prepared for this proposed rule.8
8 U.S. EPA. Memorandum Unit Cost Estimates of Residential Wood Heating Appliances. February 21, 2013.
Prepared by EC/R, Inc.
3-14
-------
3.2.4 Substitution Possibilities
The availability of close substitutes for wood heating equipment is largely contingent on
two key factors: (1) the consumer's heating needs and preferences and (2) the price and
availability of an alternative heating source. As discussed in Section 3.2.1, consumers tend to fall
into one of three demand segments depending on their desired end use for their heating device.
Each consumer group displays varying degrees of substitutability. The relative price of
alternatives is also an important aspect of product substitution, which includes the cost of the
heating equipment itself and the price and availability of the fuel it requires.
For most consumers looking for whole-house heat or single-room heat, gas or electric
heat provides a common substitute for wood fuel. Electricity can power central heating systems
for whole-house heat and smaller space heaters for single rooms. Since the majority of American
households have easy access to electric power, these home heating options are often a convenient
and low-cost alternative to wood heat. Gas-powered central furnaces and room heaters and oil-
powered central heating systems are also on the market for residential use (DOE, 2009).
Although most consumers have homes equipped for gas or electric power, more rural areas of the
country have limited access to reliable utilities. In these regions, electric or gas heat may not be
an available or cost-efficient choice relative to wood heat.
Recreational or aesthetic wood-fired appliances have fewer direct substitutes. Traditional
indoor fireplaces and masonry fireplaces can be outfitted for burning natural gas rather than
wood. Consumers may have a personal preference for one over the other. Wood fuel can be
messy and somewhat difficult to store, whereas natural gas can be more convenient and easier to
use, and gas furnaces can be much more efficient. Outdoor recreational appliances may be
difficult to substitute directly because many consumers desire the aesthetic effect created by a
wood-burning fire pit or chiminea. Outdoor charcoal or gas grills provide an alternative for
outdoor wood-fired cooking appliances, but consumers may not consider these a direct
substitute. It should be noted that outdoor recreational wood-burning appliances such as fire pits,
chiminea, and grills are not covered in this proposal.
3.2.5 Price Elasticity of Demand
Price elasticity of demand is a concept in economic theory. It is a numeric measure of the
sensitivity of demand following an increase or decrease in the product's price. The level of
sensitivity is determined by a number of factors that include the availability and price of
substitutes (e.g., other types of heating equipment, gas or electric space heaters and furnaces) and
the price of complements (wood fuels).
3-15
-------
In preparing this profile, we searched for, but were unable to identify, any empirical
estimates of the price elasticity of demand for residential wood heating equipment in recent
times. An estimate of-1.6 was derived for use in the RIA for the current Residential Wood
Combustion NSPS (EPA, 1986). Although numerous articles estimate the elasticity of demand
for residential energy and heating fuels, these estimates focus almost exclusively on electricity,
natural gas, and fuel oil. These estimates find that residential energy and heating fuel demand is
relatively inelastic (i.e., there are only very small changes in demand in response to an increase
in energy or fuel prices). A recent RAND report suggests that in the short term, demand for
electricity and natural gas in residential markets is relatively inelastic (Bernstein and Griffin,
2005). However, the authors of the report also note that sustained higher energy prices in the
long term may result in demand for energy becoming more elastic as consumers have time to
identify more energy-efficient options.
In the absence of empirical estimates, we offer a qualitative discussion of the key
determinants of the price elasticity of demand to provide a general sense of whether consumer
demand is elastic or inelastic. As mentioned earlier, the determinants of elasticity include the
degree of substitutability, product necessity, and duration of the price increase.
There are a number of close substitutes for residential wood heating devices that include
electric and gas furnaces and space heaters. The extent to which consumers are able to substitute
between these options is likely to vary depending on geographic location. Overall, the presence
of good substitutes will increase the elasticity of demand for wood heating equipment. In
contrast, if locally-available alternative heating fuels (i.e., electricity, and fuel oil) are relatively
higher priced, it may make switching away from wood heating equipment less likely and,
ultimately, make demand for wood heating equipment inelastic. Also, the elasticity may depend
on whether the fuel in question is a secondary source of fuel instead of a primary fuel source.
Finally, the magnitude of the cost for residential wood heating equipment may also
increase the elasticity of demand. Consumer demand tends to be more elastic when the price of
the good represents a large proportion of consumer income (Bernstein and Griffin, 2005). In
other words, consumers become more sensitive to small price changes when considering the
purchase of a large household appliance (e.g., refrigerator, oven range, or heating system).
3.3 Industry Organization
A review and description of market characteristics (i.e., geography, product
differentiation, product transportation, entry barriers, and degree of concentration) can enhance
our understanding of the mechanisms underlying the wood heating equipment industry. These
3-16
-------
characteristics provide indicators of a firm's ability to influence market prices by varying the
quantity of product it sells. For example, in markets with large numbers of sellers and identical
products, firms are unlikely to be able to influence market prices via their production decisions
(i.e., they are "price takers" and operate in highly competitive markets). However, in markets
with few firms, significant barriers to entry (e.g., licenses, legal restrictions, or high fixed costs),
or products that are similar but can be differentiated, a firm may have some degree of market
power (i.e., to set or significantly influence market prices). In addition, if a product is difficult to
transport over long distance (due to weight or hazardous nature), then the market size may be
more restricted than one might expect, all other things being equal.
3.3.1 Market Structure
Market structure characterizes the level of competition and determines the extent to
which producers and sellers can influence market prices. Economic market structure typically
focuses on the number of producers and consumers, the barriers to market entry, and product
substitutability.
The residential wood heater market contains a number of large producers selling a
number of differentiated products along with a large number of small producers. These
characteristics suggest a quasi-monopolistic competitive market (i.e., somewhere between highly
competitive and less competitive) for large producers who will have some influence over market
prices. For small producers, the market will be highly competitive in nature. In addition, existing
regulatory requirements for product testing and certifications represent a barrier to market entry
for new producers of wood heating devices. Competition in this market may be further
constrained by transportation costs due to the weight of these products. A similar assessment was
determined in the 1986 study by the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) and Brookings
Institution Joint Center for Regulatory Studies.
The AEI-Brookings report also identified several key factors that influence
manufacturers' pricing decisions. These factors included production prices, prices of similar
products sold by competitors, transportation costs, combustion technology and efficiency, and
consumers' ability to differentiate products based on brand name and efficiency.
Price elasticity of supply is a numeric measure of the industry's response to a small
percentage increase in the product price (Landsburg, 2005). The law of supply suggests
producers supply greater quantities at higher prices as a result of increasing marginal returns for
each additional unit produced as the average cost per unit of output declines. As a result, the
elasticity of supply for most industries is positive. Determinants of supply elasticity are
3-17
-------
flexibility of sellers to adjust production and the time period being considered in estimating the
elasticity. Most manufactured goods have an elastic supply, meaning that sellers can adjust
production quickly in response to a change in prices (Mankiw, 1998). Industries with excess
plant capacity are likely to have elastic supply as sellers can ramp up production in a relatively
short time frame.
Based on 2006 plant capacity utilization data as shown in Figure 3 -3, the heating
equipment manufacturing industry averaged 60% utilization, growing from 59% in 2002 to a
maximum utilization of 65% in 2005 and then falling to 54% in 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau,
2007). Similar statistics are not available for more recent years because this survey was
discontinued after 2006. The available data suggest that there is ample existing capacity to
increase production in the short and long terms, assuming an increase in price of residential
wood-burning heating equipment.
100%
90%
- 70%
59%
62%
65%
2002
2006
Figure 3-3. Annual Plant Capacity Utilization for Heating Equipment Manufacturers
(NAICS 333414): 2002-2006
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2007. Survey of Plant Capacity: 2006. "Table la. Full Capacity Utilization Rates by
Industry Fourth Quarter 2002-2006." Census Bureau, Washington DC. Report No. MQ-C1(06).
3.3.2 Manufacturing Plants
Since 1988, the change in the number of residential wood-fired heater producers is
unclear. The U.S. Economic Census reports that between 1992 and 2007 the number of
establishments (places of business) in the industry has remained unchanged. Alternatively, the
3-18
-------
industry association (HPBA) has suggested that the number of manufacturers of wood-fired
heaters fell by 80% following the 1988 NSPS, down from approximately 500 to roughly 120
manufacturers today (Houck and Tiegs, 2009). The difference between the 2 estimates is thought
to be due to the large number of "backyard welders" in 1988 who built handmade stoves in their
backyard as a sideline rather than their main source of income and chose not to attempt to
develop competitive designs for the marketplace after the 1988 NSPS was promulgated.
For this analysis, we were able to identify 635 firms in the residential wood heating
equipment industry in the United States. RTI developed this estimate leveraging a number of
different sources that included EPA's official list of certified wood heater manufacturers, Dun &
Bradstreet's online company database, and a number of industry association membership lists.
The estimate includes the manufacturers listed on EPA's official certification lists (-120
manufacturers). We then expanded this list to include manufacturers of masonry heaters and
outdoor wood boilers and manufacturers of non-heating devices, such as cook stoves, outdoor
fireplaces, and bake ovens. Table 3-7 reports the count of U.S.-based companies in the industry
by major business type.
Table 3-7. Number of U.S. Companies by Business Type
Business Type
Manufacturers
Masonry contractors
Wholesalers, distributors
Residential construction
Retailers
U.S. Totals
Number of Companies
577
24
19
10
5
635
Reported Sales 2008
($l,OOOs)
$1,285,800
$7,200
$34,200
$3,200
$600
$1,331,000
U.S. Market Share
(% of Net Sales)
96.60%
0.54%
2.57%
0.24%
0.05%
100%
Sources: Dun & Bradstreet Marketplace, a company database. RTI International calculations.
Residential wood heater manufacturers account for over 90% of the firms in the industry
and span 14 different NAICS codes, of which 560 are categorized asNAICS 333414, as
establishments primarily engaged in manufacturing heating equipment (except electric and warm
air furnaces), such as heating boilers, heating stoves, floor and wall furnaces, and wall and
baseboard heating units (Census Bureau, 201 Of). An average manufacturer may produce
anywhere from one to five technically different products (HPBA, 2010a). Manufacturers
dominate the market, accounting for over 96% of sales for the industry in 2008.
3-19
-------
Masonry contractors are the second largest group of businesses, accounting for 5% of the
companies, and almost all masonry contractors are classified asNAICS 238140 establishments
primarily engaged in masonry work, stone setting, brick laying, and other stone work for new
construction, additions, alterations, maintenance, and repairs (U.S. Census Bureau, 201 Of).
Masonry contractors account for less than 1% of the industry sales. The remaining 5% of
businesses are classified as residential construction contractors, wholesalers, distributors, and
retailers. Residential construction contractors are primarily associated with design construction
and installation of masonry heaters, outdoor fireplaces, and hydronic heaters. Companies
classified as wholesalers, distributors, and retailers do not manufacture products but may be tied
exclusively to a single brand or manufacturer, while others distribute and sell multiple products
and brands.
3.3.3 Location
The industry is, for the most part, co-located in areas of the country with the largest
demand for winter heating. Over 50% of U.S.-owned companies are located in 10 states in the
northern half of the country. The largest number of companies is located in California, with
additional concentrations in the Northwest, Northeast, the upper Midwest, and Central Plains.
Table 3-8 reports the number of U.S. companies for the top 10 states. Additionally,
approximately 104 foreign-based companies operate in the United States, two-thirds of which are
Canadian-based companies.
3-20
-------
Table 3-8. U.S. Wood Heat Equipment Industry by Geographic Location
Location
California
Pennsylvania
Minnesota
New York
Washington
Ohio
Texas
Wisconsin
Michigan
Illinois
U.S. Total
Canada
Other foreign
Industry Total
Business Count
63
36
35
33
31
29
29
26
25
21
635
67
37
739
% of Total U.S. Industry
10%
6%
6%
5%
5%
5%
5%
4%
4%
3%
86%
9%
5%
100%
Sources: Dun & Bradstreet Marketplace, a company database. RTI International calculations.
3.3.4 Company Sales and Employment
Overall sales for the residential wood heating industry totaled more than $1.3 billion in
2008. Based on company data obtained for this profile, the industry employs approximately
17,000 workers annually. Previous analysis suggests that the industry relies on seasonal labor,
ramping up production in months leading up to winter and reducing employment and production
during the warmer parts of the year (AEI, 1986). Table 3-9 presents median sales and
employment for the industry by business type.
3-21
-------
Table 3-9. U.S. Sales and Employment Statistics by Business Type
Business Type
Manufacturers
Masonry contractors
Wholesalers, distributors
Residential construction
Retailers
U.S. Totals
Number of Companies
577
24
19
10
5
635
Median Sales 2010
($l,OOOs)
$204
$102
$510
$102
$102
$204
Median Employment
per Company
4
3
5
2
2
4
Sources: Dun & BradstreetMarfe/p/ace, a company database. RTI International calculations. Median sales estimates
are escalated to 2010 from 2008 using the GDP implicit price deflator. The resulting escalation ratio for
these years is 1.022.
Firms manufacturing heating equipment (except electric and warm air furnaces), such as
heating boilers, heating stoves, floor and wall furnaces, and wall and baseboard heating units
(NAICS 333414), are classified as small by the Small Business Administration (SBA, 2013) if
they have fewer than 500 employees. Looking across the 14 manufacturing-related NAICS codes
in our analysis, we find that approximately 90% of manufacturers are considered small
businesses based on their reported employment compared with the SBA threshold. SBA
classifies wholesalers and distributors as small if their employment is fewer than 100 workers.
Approximately 68% of the industry's wholesalers and distributors are considered small based on
the employment data obtained for this analysis.
SB A thresholds for masonry, construction, and retail firms are based on annual sales.
SBA standards for NAICS codes under these business types range between $ 14 and $33 million
in annual revenue. As reported in Table 3-9, median sales in these business categories are far
below the range of SBA standards. As one would expect, our analysis finds that all 39 firms are
considered small based on their reported annual sales compared with the SBA standards for their
respective NAICS code classifications.
3.3.4.1 Profits of Affected Entities
Table 3-10 reports profit margins for manufacturers, masonry contractors, and
wholesalers and distributors. The profit margin represents an average of reported profit per unit
sales across the industry classified by the 6-digit NAICS code.
3-22
-------
Table 3-10. Profit Margins for NAICS 333414, 238140, and 423720: 2008
NAICS
Code
333414
238140
423720
NAICS Description
Heating Equipment Manufacturers
Masonry Contractors
Plumbing and Heating Equipment Supplies (Hydronics) Merchant Wholesalers
Profit
Margin
4.3%
4.7%
3.4%
Industry
Sales
(S106)
$70,965
$9,676
$58,907
Source: The Risk Management Association. 2008. Annual Statement Studies, Financial Ratio Benchmarks 2008-
2009. Risk Management Association, Philadelphia: 2008.
3.4 Residential Wood Heater Market
Residential wood heating device shipments in the United States were relatively consistent
from year to year between 1998 and 2005, according to the HPBA's reported hearth industry
shipment data (2009). Since 2005, total industry shipments on average have declined annually by
24%. Industry experts attribute this decline in large part to the broader economic downturn and
poor housing market. Renewable energy tax rebates offered in 2008 provided some relief for
pellet-fueled devices, resulting in a 1-year increase in shipments of 161%, only to steeply decline
again in 2009. This reflects the impact that the renewable energy tax rebates can have on wood
burning appliances depending on the size and duration of the rebates. Table 3-11 presents
shipment volumes by product type in 2008.
Outdoor wood boilers (or hydronic heaters) are a relatively new product in the market
since 1990. Previous studies have reported annual growth in sales of between 30 and 128%, with
over 155,000 outdoor wood boilers in use in the United States in 2006 (NESCAUM, 2006). Sales
have been regionally focused in the Northeast (especially the Great Lakes region) and
Midwestern states. The NESCAUM report predicted that over 500,000 outdoor wood boilers will
be in use before the end of 2010 if trends in annual sales continue to follow growth rates
observed between 1990 and 2006.
Market data for coal-burning stoves are very limited. However, anecdotal evidence
suggests that coal stove use is limited to major coal states, including Pennsylvania, West
Virginia, and Indiana, where coal is abundant and cheap relative to other heating fuels (Dagan,
3-23
-------
Table 3-11. Unit Shipments and Percentage of Total Units by Product Type: 2008
Product Type
Wood stove
Pellet stove
Biomass stove
Wood fireplaces3
Outdoor fireplaces
Masonry heaters
Hydronic central heating systems
Total
Units
166,527
130,381
6,819
180,966
6,302
730
13,385
505,110
% of Total Units
33%
26%
1%
36%
1%
0%
3%
100%
a Wood fireplaces in this table include both factory-built and site-built models.
Source: Frost & Sullivan. 2010. Market Research Report on North American Residential Wood Heaters,
Fireplaces, and Hearth Heating Products Markets. Prepared for EC/R Inc.
2005). Most of the major stove manufacturers feature at least one coal-burning stove model.
However, at the time of writing this profile, we were unable to locate any reliable estimate of
shipments in the United States for coal stoves.
3.4.1 Market Prices
Residential wood combustions device prices range from $200 to $50,000 depending on
the product type and characteristics. Consumers who purchase these products must also consider
the costs of installation, which range between $300 and $6,000 on average. Tables 3-12 and 3-13
report the average cost of installation and purchase price for residential wood combustion
devices.
Table 3-12. Installation Costs for Average System by Product Type (North America): 2008
Product Type
Installation Cost
Wood stove
Pellet stove
Biomass stove
Wood fireplaces
Outdoor fireplaces
Masonry heaters
Hydronic central heating systems
$500
$300
$300
$600
$350
$6,000
$2,000
Source: Frost & Sullivan. 2010. Market Research Report on North American Residential Wood Heaters,
Fireplaces, and Hearth Heating Products Markets. Prepared for EC/R Inc.
3-24
-------
Table 3-13. Manufacturers' Price by Product Type (North America): 2008
Product Type
Wood stove
Pellet stove
Biomass stove
Wood fireplaces
Outdoor fireplaces
Masonry heaters
Hydronic central heating systems
Average Price
$848
$1,279
$1,403
$450
$755
$9,041
$7,433
Price Range
$200 to $2,800
$300 to $3,500
$350 to $4,000
$150 to $5,000
$250 to $6,000
$4,000 to $15,000
$5,000 to $35,000
Source: Frost & Sullivan. 2010. Market Research Report on North American Residential Wood Heaters,
Fireplaces, and Hearth Heating Products Markets, Figure 2.6. Prepared for Ec/R Inc.
Given the specialized skills and materials required to construct a masonry heater, it is not
surprising that this product has the highest average market price. Hydronic heaters are the second
most expensive product partly because of the additional material requirements. The price of
freestanding stoves and fireplace inserts varies depending on the fuel it burns. Biomass stoves
are almost twice as expensive as cord wood-burning stoves because biomass stoves are more
similar in construction to pellet stoves. Although no price data exist on coal-burning stoves, costs
are comparable to traditional cord wood stoves. Coal stove prices for 2010 collected for this
profile averaged $1,338 and ranged between $500 and $3,000 depending on the size and
manufacturer.
3.4.2 International Competition
The U.S. market for wood-fueled heating products has been concentrated on the local
scale in recent years. Manufacturers concentrate production where wood heat is in demand,
which is in the Northeast and Northwest. Some regions of the country have specific emissions
requirements on wood burning, so consumers may be restricted to buying stoves and heaters that
can cater to local regulations (Frost & Sullivan, 2010). Domestic producers have traditionally
faced some competition from European manufacturers in certain wood heat markets, but Asian
manufacturers have been gaining market share, especially in the EPA-certified wood stove and
currently exempt single-burn-rate stove markets (Frost & Sullivan, 2010).
Asian-based companies, especially those in China, have the advantage of relatively low
overhead and labor costs compared with other companies worldwide (Frost & Sullivan, 2010).
Although the products coming from these producers are lower in price, they are also lower in
quality (Frost & Sullivan, 2010). However, money-conscious consumers have been willing to
3-25
-------
settle for lower quality stoves as the economy remains uncertain (Frost & Sullivan, 2010).
Companies from all over the world have been moving some manufacturing operations to China
in an attempt to compete with Asian producers through low-cost production (Frost & Sullivan,
2010). Still, U.S. manufacturers are likely to see increased competition from Asia in the future.
The masonry heater industry is one in which foreign manufacturers play a substantial
role. Over two-thirds of masonry heaters installed in the United States are manufactured outside
of the country, principally by one manufacturer (Seaton, 2010). Most United States companies
build around 15 masonry heaters per year, typically constructed onsite by masons. Canadian and
European producers sell masonry products through U.S. distributors, but most of these
companies do not manufacture within the United States (Seaton, 2010). Some stove companies
perform research and development, as well as assembly of wood stoves in the United States, but
import cast parts and components from Europe and China (HPBA, 2010a). The pellet stove
industry has seen increasing foreign competition in recent years. Many of the foreign
manufacturers have made the business decision to sell products through American-owned
businesses and thus the costs of EPA certification are sometimes passed on to the American
seller/importer/licensee.
3.4.3 Future Market Trends
While there has been a steady decline in the residential markets for wood heaters,
fireplaces, and hearth products, increases in oil and gas prices have led to substitution back to
wood as a source of heat in 2007, in which a growth rate of 16.4% between 2007 and 2008 took
place in these markets. However, demand for these products fell victim to the recession in 2009
(Frost & Sullivan, 2010). A weak residential construction market coupled with a tight credit
market decreased overall demand in the market for wood heating products, leading analysts to
project a 2009 growth rate of-36.1% (Frost & Sullivan, 2010). The growth forecast for 2010 is
expected to improve relative to 2009 to a rate of-4.1%, due in part to the residual effects of the
severe 2009 winter temperatures and the financial incentive provided by the federal energy
efficient tax credit (Frost & Sullivan, 2010).
As the economy continues to recover beyond 2010, demand should trend upward as
consumers look to cut heating costs with wood and biomass (Frost & Sullivan, 2010). New home
construction and increased credit availability will further foster demand, which is expected to
grow at a compound annual rate of 4.1% from 2009 to 2015 (Frost & Sullivan, 2010). The
current regional demand patterns are expected to continue, with the Northeast and Northwest
regions of the country driving wood fuel combustion demand, but analysts anticipate that the
3-26
-------
wood heat product market will be embraced in other areas of the country in which wood and
biomass are viable and inexpensive fuel sources (Frost & Sullivan, 2010).
Although the overall residential wood heat market is expected to grow, there may be
variation in demand between individual product segments. Pellet and biomass stoves are
expected to lead the way in demand as consumers look for options with sustainable fuel sources
and cleaner-burning technologies (Frost & Sullivan, 2010). Outdoor wood boilers (hydronic
heaters) saw a surge in demand throughout the 1990s and mid-2000s, a trend that is projected to
continue (Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management, 2006). Future demand for
primary and secondary wood-burning heating devices will be somewhat dependent on the price
of wood fuel relative to electric and gas heat, as well as consumer preferences. Since fireplaces
and masonry fireplaces typically are not effective heaters and purchases are based on the
aesthetic value rather than function, future demand will likely stay in line with consumer
preferences.
3-27
-------
SECTION 4
BASELINE EMISSIONS AND EMISSION REDUCTIONS
4.1 Introduction
This section presents the baseline emissions for the pollutants emitted by affected units
and also the resulting emissions after imposition of the two options considered for the proposed
NSPS. We present the baseline emissions and emission reductions for PM2.5 and also for other
pollutants from affected units such as volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and carbon monoxide
(CO). Baseline emissions were calculated using a 2008 base inventory and were then projected
to future years beyond the promulgation of the rule in 2014 to 2022 and beyond, using emissions
factors specific to the category of the affected unit (e.g., certified wood stove, pellet stove).
These emissions factors are listed in the emissions memorandum for this proposed rule (Ec/R,
2013). Emission reductions were calculated from the baseline emissions based on the considered
emissions limits for each appliance type affected for each option analyzed, and the emission
reductions were used as inputs to the benefits analysis presented in Section 7.
4.2 Background to Emissions Estimates
We used the EPA Residential Wood Combustion (RWC) emission estimation tool,10
which is an Access™ database that compiles nationwide RWC emissions using county level,
process specific data and calculations. We summed the nationwide number of appliances and
total tons of wood burned for each of the relevant product categories in the inventory.
Table 4-1. RWC Emission Inventory Categories Used
Woodstove: fireplace inserts; EPA certified; non-catalytic
Woodstove: fireplace inserts; EPA certified; catalytic
Woodstove: freestanding, EPA certified, non-catalytic
Woodstove: freestanding, EPA certified, catalytic
Woodstove: pellet-fired, general
Woodstove: freestanding, non-EP A certified
IHydronic heater: outdoor
Furnaces: indoor, cordwood
1 rwc_2008_tToolv4.1_feb09_2010.zip.
4-1
-------
We then made some adjustments/assumptions to the baseline RWC inventory. First, we
deleted data in the RWC for non-certified stoves and inserts, as these cannot be sold. With the
exception of wood stoves, we applied the PM2.5 emission factors for each class to the total tons
of wood burned and calculated an average emission rate/appliance/category. In the case of wood
stoves, the RWC used an average of all PMio AP-42 emission factors for wood stoves.n The
RWC assumes that PMio and PM2.5 factors are identical. At a minimum, we believe that all new
wood stoves meet the AP-42 PMio emission factors for "Phase II" stoves (the current NSPS). As
described below, we went a step further and assumed that all new shipments will meet the
current Washington State limits, which are approximately 40% less than the current NSPS.
Second, we assumed that outdoor hydronic heaters and indoor hydronic heaters have the
same emission profile.
Single burn rate stoves are not included in the RWC as separate identifiable units. We
assumed that they would have the same baseline emission factor as freestanding non-certified
woodstoves, i.e., 30.6 Ib/ton of wood burned. We used the average tons burned per appliance
factor as representative of these stoves as well.
Masonry heaters are not included in the RWC database, and we were unable to identify a
surrogate emission factor which could be used to estimate tons/appliance emissions. Therefore,
we were not able to estimate emissions from these appliances for the purpose of this analysis.
We used this subset of the RWC database to calculate a baseline average emission
rate/appliance/category, including an adjustment of the RWC emission factor to the current
Washington State limits where warranted. We multiplied the total tons of wood burned for the
appliance by the RWC emission factor (adjusted as appropriate) to calculate the total tons of
PM2.5 emissions. We divided this value by the number of appliances in the category to calculate
the baseline average PM2.5 emissions per individual appliance, and these results are shown in
Table 4-2.
1 AP-42, Chapter 1.10, Residential Wood Stoves, Table 1.10-1. See:
http://www.epa.gov/ttnchiel/ap42/ch01/final/c01slO.pdf.
4-2
-------
Table 4-2. PM2.s Tons per Appliance Estimate (Baseline)
Emission Inventory Category
Pollutant
Baseline Tons per
Emission factor Emissions appliance/
(Ib/ton) (tons) yr
Woodstove: fireplace inserts; EPA certified;
non-catalytic
Woodstove: fireplace inserts; EPA certified;
catalytic
Woodstove: freestanding, EPA certified,
non-catalytic
Woodstove: freestanding, EPA certified,
catalytic
Woodstove: pellet-fired, general
Hydronic heater: outdoor/indoor
Woodstove: freestanding, non-EPA
certified3
Furnace: indoor, cordwood
Primary PM2 5
Primary PM2 5
Primary PM2 5
Primary PM2 5
Primary PM2 5
Primary PM2 5
Primary PM2 5
Primary PM2 5
Primary PM2 5
8.76
9.72
8.76
9.72
3.06
27.6
30.6
27.6
30.6
5,371
2,023
6,745
3,769
1,798
50,427
71,424
2,471
0.0041
0.0047
0.0077
0.0101
0.0021
0.1383
0.0324
0.0582
a Non-EPA certified wood stove emission factor and tons/appliance were used to represent single burn rate stoves.
4.2.1 Emissions Factors
The next step in the analysis was to develop emission factors representing potential NSPS
options to reduce emissions. The following is a summary of the NSPS options considered in the
proposal for each appliance type and examined in detail in Section 2. The NSPS options
examined in this analysis ("Proposal" and "Alternative") are based on phased-in compliance
dates, or "steps," for subcategories of appliances. Proposed Subpart AAA will regulate "room
heaters" and includes adjustable burn rate stoves, single burn rate stoves, and pellet stoves.
Proposed Subpart QQQQ will regulate "central heaters" and includes outdoor and indoor
hydronic heaters and forced air furnaces. Proposed Subpart RRRR will regulate masonry heaters.
Following is a summary of the current NSPS implementation assumptions for appliances within
the subcategories under both the Proposed and the Alternative options. As mentioned in Section
2, the Proposed option is a 2-step standard with compliance dates of effective date and 5 years
after the effective date for different appliances. For the purposes of our Proposed option
analyses, we used 2014 and 2019, respectively. The Alternative option is a 3-step standard with
compliance dates of effective date, 3 years after the effective date, and 8 years after the effective
date. For the purposes of our Alternative option analyses, we used 2014, 2017, and 2022,
respectively.
4-3
-------
Subpart AAA ("room heaters"):
• These are adjustable burn rate, single burn rate, and pellet stoves: Proposal: Step 1
limit of 4.5 g/hr upon promulgation in 2014; and Step 2 limit of 1.3 g/hr five years
after promulgation in 2019. Alternative: Step 1 limit of 4.5 g/hr upon promulgation
in 2014; Step 2 limit of 2.5 g/hr three years after promulgation in 2017; and Step 3
limit of 1.3 g/hr eight years after promulgation in 2022. Note: The Step 1 limit is the
1995 Washington State standard for non-catalytic stoves; the Alternative Step 2 limit
is the 1995 Washington State standard for catalytic stoves; and the proposed Step 2
(Alternative Step 3) limit is already met by the top performing catalytic, non-catalytic
and pellet stove models, according to industry data.12 Although previously
unregulated and a less developed technology than adjustable burn rate stoves, single
burn rate stove designs have been undergoing R&D in anticipation of the proposed
NSPS and cleaner designs are nearly market-ready.13
Subpart 0000 ("central heaters"):
• These are hydronic heaters (both outdoor and indoor): Proposal: Step 1 limit of 0.32
Ib/mm BTU heat output upon promulgation in 2014; and Step 2 limit of 0.06 Ib/mm
BTU heat output five years after promulgation in 2019. Alternative: Step 1 limit of
0.32 Ib/mm BTU heat output upon promulgation in 2014; Step 2 limit of 0.15 Ib/mm
BTU heat output three years after promulgation in 2017; and Step 3 limit of 0.06
Ib/mm BTU heat output eight years after promulgation in 2022. Note: The Step 1
limit is the EPA "Phase 2 " voluntary program limit already met by 36 hydronic
heater models (27 cord wood and 9 pellet models) built by 17 U.S. manufacturers; the
Alternative Step 2 limit is already met by 11 hydronic heater models (6 cord wood
and 5 pellet models) built by 6 U.S. manufacturers; and the proposed Step 2
(Alternative Step 3) limit is already met by 4 hydronic heater models (2 cord wood
and 2 pellet models) built by 2 U.S. manufacturers14, as well as over 100 European
manufacturers per test method EN 303-05.15
• Forced Air Furnaces: Proposal: Step 1 limit of 0.93 Ib/mm BTU heat output upon
promulgation in 2014; and Step 2 limit of 0.06 Ib/mm BTU heat output five years
after promulgation in 2019. Alternative: Step 1 limit of 0.93 Ib/mm BTU heat output
upon promulgation in 2014; Step 2 limit of 0.15 Ib/mm BTU heat output three years
after promulgation in 2017; and Step 3 limit of 0.06 Ib/mm BTU heat output eight
years after promulgation in 2022. Note: The Step 1 limit is based on test data from
12 Final HPBA Heater Database version 2/25/10, EC/R received from Bob Ferguson for HPB A on 4/26/10
13 2/8/13 telephone discussion between Gil Wood, USEPA, and a manufacturer of single burn rate stoves.
14 See list of cleaner hydronic heaters participating in EPA's voluntary program at
http://www.epa. gov/burnwise/owhhlist.html
15 European Wood-Heating Technology Survey: An Overview of Combustion Principles and the Energy and
Emissions Performance Characteristics of Commercially Available Systems in Austria, Germany, Denmark,
Norway, and Sweden; Final Report; Prepared for the New York State Energy Research and Development
Authority; NYSERDA Report 10-01; April 2010.
4-4
-------
development of Canadian standard B415.1-1016 and conversation with industry
regarding cleaner forced air furnace models currently being tested in R&D17. Forced
air furnace designs able to meet the Alternative Step 2 and proposed Step 2
(Alternative Step 3) limits may be based on technology transferred from hydronic
heater designs.
Subpart RRRR including masonry heaters:
• Masonry Heaters: Proposal / Alternative (same): Step 1 limit of 0.32 Ib/mm BTU
heat output upon promulgation in 2014 for large manufacturers (defined as
manufacturers constructing > 15 masonry heaters per year), with a 5-year (2019)
small volume manufacturer compliance extension (for companies constructing < 15
units/year). No other phased-in limits are being proposed. Note: Based on data
submitted by the Masonry Heater Association18, over 10 models already meet this
limit.
We developed adjusted emission factors to reflect the NSPS options discussed above,
which were then used to calculate new average tons of emissions per appliance for each RWC
appliance type. Reasonable adjustments were assumed for NSPS emission factors (as noted
below) in order to not overstate emission reductions under the NSPS options; actual emission
reductions may be somewhat greater than reductions resulting from our emission factor
adjustments for the purpose of this analysis. Following is a description of how the RWC factors
were adjusted:
• Woodstove: all EPA certified. We determined the ratio of emissions between the
existing NSPS limits compared to the Washington state standards, for they are tighter
than the existing NSPS and have been in existence since 1995. For both catalytic and
non-catalytic devices, the Washington standard is 60% of the NSPS. We assumed this
same ratio would apply to the emissions factors and multiplied the RWC emission
factor by 60%. We used these adjusted RWC emission factors (shown in Table 4-2)
as both baseline and Step 1 emission factors for catalytic and non-catalytic stoves. We
made the reasonable assumption (in terms of estimating potential emission
reductions) that the Step 1 emission factor was the same as the baseline emission
factor, because nearly all current wood stove models already meet the Step 1 limit
according to industry data.19 We also reasonably assumed that the Alternative Step 2
emission factor for catalytic stoves was the same as the baseline and Step 1 emission
factor because approximately 90% of the current catalytic models already meet the
Alternative Step 2 limit, according to industry data.10 For the Alternative Step 2
16 CSA B415.1-10, Performance Testing of Solid-Fuel-Burning Heating Appliances. Appendix D. March 2010.
17 2/8/13 telephone discussion between Gil Wood, USEPA, and a manufacturer of forced air furnaces.
18 Attachment to 3/25/2011 e-mail from Timothy Seaton of Timely Construction to Gil Wood and Mike Toney of
USEPA.
19 Final HPBA Heater Database version 2/25/10, EC/R received from Bob Ferguson for HPBA on 4/26/10.
4-5
-------
emission factor for non-catalytic models, we scaled the Step 1 emission factor by the
ratio of the Alternative Step 2 standard to the Step 1 standard (or 2.5/4.5 = 0.55).
Likewise, for the proposed Step 2 (Alternative Step 3) emission factor for both
catalytic and non-catalytic models, we scaled the Alternative Step 2 emission factor
by the ratio of the proposed Step 2 (Alternative Step 3) standard to the Alternative
Step 2 standard (or 1.3/2.5 = 0.52). For consistency with our shipment data and
because the RWC database provides four separate emission factors for catalytic and
non-catalytic, freestanding models and fireplace inserts, we used the weighted
average value for all four wood stove types to represent the total population of
adjustable burn rate woodstoves. Finally, we multiplied the resulting emission factors
by the total tons burned for the appliance type (provided by the RWC database) and
then divided that by the appliance population (also provided by the RWC database) to
derive the tons/appliance of PM2.5 emissions. The emission factors and tons/appliance
are shown in the green rows in Table 4-3.
Woodstove: pellet fired, general. We used the RWC emission factor shown in Table
4-2 as both the baseline and Step 1 emission factor for pellet stoves because nearly all
current pellet stove models already meet the Step 1 standard according to industry
data.20 The RWC emission factor for pellet stoves is quite low compared to other
appliances, which leaves little room to adjust the factor. For the Alternative Step 2
emission factor, we reduced the Baseline/Step 1 emission factor by only 10%, an
adjustment based on industry data11 that most pellet models (80%) already meet the
Alternative Step 2 level. For the proposed Step 2 (Alternative Step 3) emission factor,
we scaled the Alternative Step 2 emission factor by the ratio of the proposed Step 2
(Alternative Step 3) standard to the Alternative Step 2 standard (or 1.3/2.5 = 0.52).
We multiplied the resulting emission factors by the total tons burned for pellet stoves
and then divided that by the pellet stove appliance population to derive the
tons/appliance of PM2.5 emissions. The emission factors and tons/appliance are shown
in the orange row in Table 4-3.
Woodstove: freestanding, non-EPA certified (single burn rate stoves). As described
above, we assumed that the freestanding non-EPA certified woodstove emission
inventory category includes the population of single burn rate stoves. We therefore
used the RWC emission factor for freestanding non-EPA certified woodstoves (30.6
Ib/ton) as the baseline emission factor for single burn rate stoves. For the Step 1
emission factor, we used the same emission factor as a certified non-catalytic stove
meeting the Washington state standards (i.e., 8.76 Ib/ton) because the same standard
is being proposed for single burn rate stoves as for adjustable burn rate stoves.
Likewise, we used the same emission factors used for non-catalytic stoves for the
Alternative Step 2 and proposed Step 2 (Alternative Step 3) emission factors. We
multiplied the resulting emission factors by the total tons burned for this appliance
category and then divided that by the appliance population to derive the
tons/appliance of PM2.5 emissions. The emission factors and tons/appliance are shown
in the grey row in Table 4-3.
' Final HPBA Heater Database version 2/25/10, EC/R received from Bob Ferguson for HPBA on 4/26/10.
4-6
-------
4.2.1.1 Hydrome Heater: Outdoor/Indoor.
As noted above, we assumed that indoor hydronic heaters (a minority of the hydronic
heater population) have the same emission profile as the outdoor hydronic heater appliance
category provided in the RWC. According to the EPA voluntary hydronic heater program, the
"phase 2" heaters that are presumed to represent the Level INSPS option are 90% cleaner than
older unqualified units.21 We assume as described in our emissions memorandum that the
majority of the existing inventory is represented by these unqualified units, and applied a 90%
reduction to the RWC baseline emission factor shown in Table 4-2 (27.6 Ib/ton) to derive the
Step 1 emission factor (2.76 Ib/ton). For the Alternative Step 2 emission factor, we assumed a
50% reduction in the Step 1 emission factor since the Alternative Step 2 limit is approximately
50% of the Step 1 limit. Likewise, for the proposed Step 2 (Alternative Step 3) emission factor,
we scaled the Alternative Step 2 emission factor by the ratio of the proposed Step 2 (Alternative
Step 3) standard to the Alternative Step 2 standard (or 0.06/0.15 = 0.40). We multiplied the
resulting emission factors by the total tons burned for the hydronic heater RWC appliance
category and then divided that by the hydronic heater appliance population to derive the
tons/appliance of PM2.5 emissions. The emission factors and tons/appliance are shown in the blue
row in Table 4-3.
4.2.1.2 Furnace: Indoor, Cordwood
We used the RWC emission factor shown in Table 4-2 (27.6 Ib/ton) as the baseline
emission factor. For Step 1, we scaled the baseline emission factor by 75% (to 6.9 Ib/ton)
because background material provided in the CSA standards review process stated that the
emission limit associated with this method would result in an approximately 75% reduction in
emissions compared to a non-qualifying furnace.22 The Alternative Step 2 and proposed Step 2
(Alternative Step 3) limits of 0.15 Ib/mmBTU and 0.06 Ib/mmBTU, respectively, are the same as
the hydronic heater limits. The baseline emission factors for each appliance category are also the
same. Therefore we used the same Alternative Step 2 and proposed Step 2 (Alternative Step 3)
emission factors used for hydronic heaters (1.38 Ib/ton and 0.55 Ib/ton, respectively). We
multiplied the emission factors by the total tons burned for the cordwood furnace RWC
appliance category and then divided that by the furnace appliance population to derive the
tons/appliance of PM2.5 emissions. The emission factors and tons/appliance are shown in the
lavender row in Table 4-3. See Table 4-3 for a summary of the emission factors and resulting
21 See the EPA Burnwise Website: http://www.epa.gov/burnwise/participation.html.
22 Review draft of CSA B415.1-10, Performance Testing of Solid-Fuel-Burning Heating Appliances. Appendix C.
March 2010.
4-7
-------
tons/appliance values for the baseline and NSPS options analyzed. Table 4-3 presents the
baseline, Step 1, Alternative Step 2, and proposed Step 2 (Alternative Step 3) emission factors
for each appliance type resulting from our assumptions and adjustments described above. We
used the appropriate tons/appliance with annual shipment data to estimate annual PM2.5
emissions based on the Proposed and Alternative phased-in implementation dates.
4-8
-------
Table 4-3. NSPS Adjusted Factors for PM2.5
Emission Inventory Category
Woodstove: fireplace inserts;
EPA certified; non-catalytic
Woodstove: fireplace inserts;
EPA certified; catalytic
Woodstove: freestanding, EPA
certified, noncatalytic
Woodstove: freestanding, EPA
certified, catalytic
Woodstove: pellet-fired, general
Hydronic heater: outdoor
Furnace: indoor, cordwood
Single Burn Rate Stoves
(freestanding, non-EPA
certified)
Baseline
Emission
Factor
Ob/ton)
8.76
9.72
8.76
9.72
3.06
27.6
27.6
30.6
Baseline
Emissions/
Appliance
(tons)
5,371
2,023
6,745
3,769
1,798
5,043
9,053
20,447
Stepl
Tons/ Emission
Appl/yr Factor
0.0041 8.76
0.0047 9.72
0.0077 8.76
0.0101 9.72
0.0021 3.06
0.1383 2.76
0.1032 6.9
0.0324 8.76
Alt. Step 2
Emission
Tons/ Factor
Appl/yr Ib/ton
0.0041
0.0047
0.0077
0.0101
0.0021
0.0138
0.0258
0.0093
4.82
9.72
4.82
9.72
2.75
1.38
1.38
4.82
Alt. Step 2
Tons/appl
0.0023
0.0047
0.0042
0.0101
0.0019
0.0069
0.0052
0.0051
Step 2
(Alt. Step 3)
Emission
Factor
Ib/ton
2.51
5.05
2.51
5.05
1.43
0.55
0.55
2.51
Step 2
(Alt. Step 3)
Tons/appl
0.0012
0.0025
0.0022
0.0052
0.0010
0.0028
0.0021
0.0027
-------
4.2.2 Voluntary Programs
Within these emissions projections are the effects not only of rules but also of various
voluntary programs managed by EPA and states. Studies have shown that fine particle (PM^.s)
concentrations in proximity to a typical outdoor wood boiler are likely to exceed the 24-hour
National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS).18 Thus, the EPA developed a hydronic
heater voluntary program to encourage manufacturers to reduce impacts on air quality through
developing and distributing cleaner, more efficient hydronic heaters. We developed the voluntary
program because it could bring cleaner models to market faster than the traditional federal
regulatory process. Phase 119 emission level (0.60 pounds per million British Thermal Unit
(Ib/MMBTU) heat input) qualifying20 units are approximately 70% cleaner than typical
unqualified units. After March 31, 2010, units that only meet the Phase 1 emission level are no
longer considered "qualified models" under the voluntary program. Phase 2 emission level (0.32
Ib/MMBTU heat output) qualifying units are approximately 90% cleaner than typical unqualified
units. Typically, qualified models have improved insulation, secondary combustion, separation
of the firebox from the water jacket, and the addition of improved heat exchangers.
In addition to the voluntary program, the EPA provided technical and financial support
for the Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management (NESC AUM) to develop a model
rule which several states have adopted to regulate hydronic heaters. The model rule is a starting
point for local regulatory authorities to consider, and they may need to also adopt additional
actions due to site-specific concerns, e.g., local terrain, meteorology, proximity of neighbors and
other exposed individuals. Thus, some regulatory authorities have instituted additional
requirements, including bans on hydronic heaters in some areas.
The EPA also developed a similar voluntary partnership program for low-mass fireplaces
(engineered, pre-fabricated fireplaces) and site-built masonry fireplaces. The original partnership
agreements were dated February 19, 2009, and pertained to low-mass fireplaces. On July 4,
2009, the program was expanded to other fireplaces, e.g., masonry fireplaces. Under this
18 For more information on wood smoke health effects, See: "Smoke Gets in Your Lungs: Outdoor Wood Boilers in
New York State," prepared by Judith Schrieber, Ph.D., et al., for the Office of the Attorney General of New
York. August 2005. See also: "Assessment of Outdoor Wood-fired Boilers," prepared by NESCAUM, March
2006 (revised June 2006).
19 Phase 1" and "Phase 2" emission levels refer to levels established in EPA voluntary programs. The earlier use of
the term "Phase II" (with a Roman numeral) standard refers to standards established in the current subpart AAA
for residential wood heaters.
20 The terms "qualified" and "unqualified," or other similar terms, refer to models that meet the voluntary program
performance levels. Later use of the terms "certified" and "uncertified," or other similar terms, refers to models
that are deemed to be in compliance with the NSPS emission limits.
4-10
-------
program, cleaner burning fireplaces are ones that qualify for the Phase 1 emissions level of 7.3 g
of particles emitted per kg of fuel burned (approximately 57% cleaner than unqualified models)
or the Phase 2 emissions level of 5.1 g/kg (approximately 70% cleaner than unqualified models).
So far, 11 models have qualified under this voluntary program at the Phase 2 level. Typically,
qualified models have improved insulation and added secondary combustion and/or a catalyst to
reduce emissions. Some manufacturers have added closed doors to reduce the excess air and thus
improve combustion. Some state and local agencies have needed to reduce emissions further and
thus some have no-burn days and some have adopted bans of new fireplaces in some areas in
order to attain the PM2.5 NAAQS.
4.2.3 Shipment Data Used to Estimate Baseline Emissions
We used data in the Frost & Sullivan Market (F&S) report21 on 2008 shipments by
product category, and F&S revenue forecasts which incorporated the weak economy in years
2009 and 2010, to calculate the reduced number of shipments in years 2009 and 2010. Forced air
furnaces were outside the scope of the F&S report. Instead, we used manufacturer estimates of
total industry sales in 200822 and applied the F&S market factors to estimate shipments through
2010. The F&S wood stove numbers included both certified and non-certified stoves, so we
estimated numbers of non-certified stove shipments out of the total reported wood stove
category.23 These shipments were deleted from the total wood stove category shipments. We
expanded the 2008 single burn rate estimate using the F&S factors. Our estimates of annual
shipments, truncated to 2022, are shown in Table 4-4. The full set of annual shipments data can
be found in the emissions memo for this proposal.
For years 2011 through 2038 (for the proposed NSPS) and 2011 through 2041 (for the
alternative approach) estimated shipments are based on a forecasted revenue growth rate of
2.0%, in keeping with the average annual growth in real GDP predicted by the Conference
Board.24 There is not a perfect correlation between shipments and revenue (for example, because
of their higher unit cost, pellet stoves generate more absolute revenue than wood stoves), but as
stated in our emissions memorandum, we think the overall trend in the projection is reasonable in
the absence of specific shipment projections.
21 Market Research and Report on North American Residential Wood Heaters, Fireplaces, and Hearth Heating
Products Market. Prepared by Frost & Sullivan. April 26, 2010. pp. 31-32.
22 NSPS Review and Comments. Confidential Business Information submitted by manufacturer. September 2010.
23 Memo to Gil Wood, USEPA, from EC/R, Inc. Draft Estimated Emissions from Wood Heaters. February 15,
2013.
24 2013 Global Outlook projections prepared by the Conference Board in November 2012; http://www.conference -
board.org/data/globaloutlook.cfm
4-11
-------
Table 4-4. Estimated Annual Shipments by Category, 2008-2022
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Wood stoves 126,527 80,851 77,617 79,169 80,752 82,367 84,015 85,695 87,409 89,157 90,940 92,759
Single burn rate 40,000 25,560 24,538 25,028 25,529 26,039 26,560 27,091 27.633 28,186 28,750 29,325
stoves
Pellet stoves 130,381 83,313 79,981 81,581 83,212 84,876 86,574 88,305 90,072 91,873 93,710 95,585
Furnace: indoor, 41,000 26,199 25,151 25,654 26,167 26,690 27,224 27,769 28,324 28,891 29,468 30,058
cordwood
Hydronic 13,385 8,553 8,211 8,375 8,543 8,713 8,888 9,065 9,247 9,432 9,620 9,813
heating systems
Our cost effectiveness analysis (CE)25 assumes a 20-year model design lifespan as well as
a 20-year use/emitting appliance lifespan. These assumptions were made to best characterize the
actual model design and use lifespans given that many models developed for the 1988 NSPS are
still being sold (after 25 years), many "new" models still have the same internal working parts
with merely exterior cosmetic changes, and most stoves in consumer homes emit for at least 20
years and often much longer. Therefore our CE analysis tracks shipments through year 2038 for
the proposed NSPS and through year 2041 for the alternative approach (i.e., assuming a 20 year
design life for a model meeting the Step 2 limit in year 2019 under the proposed NSPS, and for a
model meeting the Alternative Step 3 limit in year 2022 under the alternative approach). A
truncated summary of our actual shipment data which extended through years 2038 for the
proposed NSPS and 2041 for the alternative approach can be found in the emissions memo for
this proposal. See the CE analysis spreadsheets that are in the public docket for the complete
shipment data.
4.3 Estimated PM2.s Emissions from Shipments of New Appliances
As described above, we calculated the average emissions per appliance type using the
emission factor for each category multiplied by the inventory value of total tons of wood burned
25 See cost effective (CE) spreadsheets including for PM2.5 the 2019 Step 2 Wood Heater NSPS PM25 CE 7%
Febl4_2013.xls for the CE analysis supporting the proposed NSPS, and the 3 Step Wood Heater NSPSPM25 CE
7% Febl4_2013.xls for the alternative approach. All of these spreadsheets are found in the public docket for this
rulemaking.
4-12
-------
divided by the number of appliances in the inventory population. This value was then multiplied
by the number of shipments to calculate total emissions from each category per year under
baseline conditions (i.e., in the absence of anNSPS). More information on these calculations is
available in the emissions memorandum in the docket for this rulemaking.26
Table 4-5 on the next page shows a truncated summary of the estimated PM2.5 emissions
(in tons) under baseline conditions through year 2022. We then estimated emissions under the
proposed NSPS (Table 4-6) and under the alternative approach (Table 4-7) based on the
respective assumptions and phase-in timelines for each. Under the proposed NSPS, the Step 1
limit becomes effective in 2014 and the Step 2 limit in 2019; while under the alternative
approach, the Step 1 limit becomes effective in 2014, the Step 2 limit in 2017, and the Step 3
limit in 2022. (Note that the proposed Step 2 limit is the same as the alternative Step 3 limit,
although the compliance dates differ.) The emission estimates assume that the total number of
shipped units meet the standard in the year the standard is implemented.
Tables 4-5, 4-6, and 4-7 show emission estimates out to year 2022 for comparison. These
are truncated summaries. Our CE analysis tracks emission reductions out through 2057 for the
proposed NSPS and through 2060 for the alternative approach, assuming a 20 year design life for
a model meeting each phased-in limit, and best assumption that stoves shipped in the 20th year
will be emitting in homes for another 20 years. See the cost-effectiveness analysis spreadsheets27
for all years of emission data, both baseline and under each NSPS option considered. These
spreadsheets are available in the public docket for this rulemaking.
Note: No emission tables are provided for Subpart RRRR regulating masonry heaters
because emission estimates are not available for these appliances as explained earlier in this RIA
section.
26 Memo to Gil Wood, USEPA, fromEC/R, Inc. Draft Estimated Emissions from Wood Heaters. February 15, 2013.
27 See cost effective (CE) spreadsheets including for PM2.5 the 2019 Step 2 Wood Heater NSPS PM25 CE 7%
Febl4_2013.xls for the CE analysis supporting the proposed NSPS, and the 3 Step Wood Heater NSPSPM25 CE
7% Febl4_2013.xls for the Alternative approach.
4-13
-------
Table 4-5. Estimated PM2.s Emissions (Tons): Baseline
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Wood stoves 761 486 467 476 486 495 505 515 526 536 547 558 569 580 592
Single burn rate 1,295 827 794 810 826 843 860 877 895 912 931 949 968 988 1,007
stoves
Pellet stoves 277 177 170 173 177 180 184 187 191 195 199 203 207 211 215
Furnace: indoor, 4,230 2,703 2,595 2,647 2,699 2,753 2,809 2,865 2,922 2,980 3,040 3,101 3,163 3,226 3,291
cordwood
Hydronic 1,851 1,183 1,136 1,158 1,182 1,205 1,229 1,254 1,279 1,305 1,331 1,357 1,384 1,412 1,440
heating systems
Total 8,414 5,376 5,161 5,265 5,370 5,477 5,587 5,699 5,812 5,929 6,047 6,168 6,292 6,417 6,546
Table 4-6. Estimated PM2.s Emissions (Tons): Proposed Option
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Wood stoves 761 486 467 476 486 495 505 515 526 536 547 202 206 210 214
Single burn rate 1,295 827 794 810 826 843 246 251 256 261 266 78 79 81 82
stoves
Pellet stoves 277 177 170 173 177 180 184 187 191 195 199 95 97 99 101
Furnace: indoor, 4,230 2,703 2,595 2,647 2,699 2,753 702 716 731 745 760 62 63 65 66
cordwood
Hydronic 1,851 1,183 1,136 1,158 1,182 1,205 123 125 128 130 133 27 28 28 29
heating systems
Total 8,414 5,376 5,161 5,265 5,370 5,477 1,760 1,795 1,831 1,868 1,905 464 473 482 492
-------
Table 4-7. Estimated PMi.s Emissions (Tons): Alternative Option
Wood stoves
Single burn rate
stoves
Pellet stoves
Furnace:
indoor,
cordwood
Hydronic
heating systems
Total
2008
761
1,295
277
4,230
1,851
8,414
2009
486
827
177
2,703
1,183
5,376
2010
467
794
170
2,595
1,136
5,161
2011
476
810
173
2,647
1,158
5,265
2012
486
826
177
2,699
1,182
5,370
2013
495
843
180
2,753
1,205
5,477
2014
505
246
184
702
123
1,760
2015
515
251
187
716
125
1,795
2016
526
256
191
731
128
1,831
2017
373
144
176
149
65
906
2018
380
147
179
152
67
925
2019
388
149
183
155
68
943
2020
396
152
186
158
69
962
2021
404
155
190
161
71
981
2022
214
82
101
66
29
492
-------
From the tables above, we see that the PM2.5 emission reductions in 2022 are the same at
6,054 tons. The average of the annual emission reductions between the year of rule
promulgation, 2014, and the year that both options are fully implemented (2022) is 4,825 tons for
the Proposed option and 4,878 tons for the Alternative option.
4.4 Methodology for Estimating VOC Emissions from New Units
We used the same methodology described in Section 4.3 to develop emission estimates
for VOC emissions. Using the RWC database, we developed an estimate of VOC emissions per
appliance using baseline emission factors. Then, using the same NSPS phase-in assumptions and
anticipated emission reductions (i.e., that VOC reductions are comparable to PM2.5 reductions),
we developed emission factors to be used in analyzing the NSPS options. Table 4-8 provides the
VOC emission factors.
4-16
-------
Table 4-8. NSPS VOC Emission Factors
Emission Inventory Category
Woodstove: fireplace inserts;
EPA certified; non-catalytic
Woodstove: fireplace inserts;
EPA certified; catalytic
Woodstove: freestanding, EPA
certified, non-catalytic
Woodstove: freestanding, EPA
certified, catalytic
Woodstove: pellet-fired, general
Hydronic heater: outdoor
Furnace: indoor, cordwood
Single burn rate stoves
(freestanding, non-EPA certified)
Baseline
Emission
Factor
(Ib/ton)
12
15
12
15
0.041
11.7
11.7
53
Emissions
(tons)
7,357
3,121
9,240
5,817
24
2,138
3,838
21,288
Tons/
Appl/Yr
0.0056
0.0073
0.0106
0.0155
0.00030
0.0586
0.0437
0.0561
Step 1
Emission
Factor
(Ib/ton)
12
15
12
15
0.041
1.17
2.925
12
Step 1
Tons/
Appl/Yr
0.0056
0.0073
0.0106
0.0155
0.00003
0.0059
0.0109
0.0127
Alt. Step 2
Emission
Factor
(Ib/ton)
6.6
15
6.6
15
0.037
0.59
0.59
6.6
Alt. Step 2
Tons/
Appl/Yr
0.0031
0.0073
0.0058
0.0155
0.00003
0.0028
0.0022
0.0070
Step 2
(Alt. Step 3)
Emission
Factor
(Ib/ton)
3.432
7.800
3.432
7.800
0.019
0.234
0.234
3.432
Step 2
(Alt. Step 3)
Tons/
Appl./Yr
0.0016
0.0038
0.0030
0.0081
0.00001
0.0012
0.0009
0.0036
-------
Using the same assumptions as we used for PM2.5, we calculated VOC emissions at
baseline and under each NSPS option based on a 20-year model design lifespan for appliance
shipments as well as a 20-year appliance life. Tables 4-9 through 4-11 provide the time series of
VOC annual emissions estimates between 2008 and 2022 for the baseline, and the NSPS options
considered under the proposed NSPS revision.
4-18
-------
Table 4-9. Estimated VOC Emissions (Tons): Baseline
Wood stoves
Single burn rate
stoves
Pellet stoves
Furnace: indoor,
cordwood
Hydronic heating
systems
Total
2008 2009
1,085 693
2,243 1,433
4 2
1,793 1,146
785 502
5,909 3,776
Table 4-10. Estimated VOC
Wood stoves
Single burn rate
stoves
Pellet stoves
Furnace: indoor,
cordwood
Hydronic heating
systems
Total
2008 2009
1,085 693
2,243 1,433
4 2
1,793 1,146
785 502
5,909 3,776
2010
666
1,376
2
1,100
481
3,625
Emissions
2010
666
1,376
2
1,100
481
3,625
2011
679
1,403
2
1,122
491
3,697
(Tons)
2011
679
1,403
2
1,122
491
3,697
2012 2013
692 706
1,431 1,460
2 2
1,144 1,167
501 511
3,771 3,847
2014
720
1,489
2
1,191
521
3,924
2015
735
1,519
3
1,214
532
4,002
2016
750
1,549
3
1,239
542
4,082
2017
765
1,580
3
1,263
553
4,164
2018
780
1,612
3
1,289
564
4,247
2019
795
1,644
3
1,315
575
4,332
2020
811
1,677
3
1,341
587
4,419
2021 2022
828 844
1,711 1,745
3 3
1,368 1,395
599 611
4,507 4,597
: Proposed Option
2012 2013
692 706
1,431 1,460
2 2
1,144 1,167
501 511
3,771 3,847
2014
720
337
2
298
52
1,410
2015
735
344
3
304
53
1,438
2016
750
351
3
310
54
1,467
2017
765
358
3
316
55
1,496
2018
780
365
3
322
56
1,526
2019
293
106
1
26
12
438
2020
298
109
1
27
12
447
2021 2022
304 311
111 113
1 1
27 28
12 12
456 465
-------
Table 4-11. Estimated VOC Emissions (Tons): Alternative Option
K>
O
Wood stoves
Single burn rate
stoves
Pellet stoves
Furnace: indoor,
cordwood
Hydronic heating
systems
Total
2008
1,085
2,243
4
1,793
785
5,909
2009
693
1,433
2
1,146
502
3,776
2010
666
1,376
2
1,100
481
3,625
2011
679
1,403
2
1,122
491
3,697
2012
692
1,431
2
1,144
501
3,771
2013
706
1,460
2
1,167
511
3,847
2014
720
337
2
298
52
1,410
2015
735
344
3
304
53
1,438
2016
750
351
3
310
54
1,467
2017
541
197
2
63
28
831
2018
552
201
2
64
28
848
2019
563
205
2
66
29
864
2020
574
209
2
67
29
882
2021
586
213
3
68
30
899
2022
311
113
1
28
12
465
-------
From the tables above, we can show that the VOC emission reductions in 2022 are the
same for each option at 4,132 tons. The average of the annual emission reductions between the
year of rule promulgation, 2014, and the year that both options are fully implemented (2022) is
3,237 tons for the Proposed option and 3,241 tons for the Alternative option.
4.5 Methodology for Estimating CO Emissions from New Units
We used the same methodology described in Section 4.3 to develop estimates for CO
emissions. Using the RWC database, we developed an estimate of CO emissions per appliance
using baseline emission factors. Then, using the same NSPS phase-in assumptions and
anticipated emission reductions (i.e., that CO reductions are comparable to PM2.5 reductions), we
developed emission factors to be used in analyzing the changes in emissions from applying the
NSPS options. Table 4-12 presents the CO emission factors.
4-21
-------
Table 4-12. NSPS CO Emission Factors
to
to
Emission Inventory Category
Woodstove: fireplace inserts; EPA
certified; non-catalytic
Woodstove: fireplace inserts; EPA
certified; catalytic
Woodstove: freestanding, EPA
certified, non-catalytic
Woodstove: freestanding, EPA
certified, catalytic
Woodstove: pellet-fired, general
Single burn rate stoves (freestanding,
non-EPA-certified)
Hydronic heater: outdoor
Furnace: indoor, cordwood
Baseline
Emission
Factor
(Ib/ton)
140.8
104.4
140.8
104.4
15.9
230.8
184
184
Baseline
Emissions
(tons)
86,323
21,725
108,418
40,486
9,344
249,785
33,618
60,355
Tons/
Appl/Yr
0.0662
0.0509
0.1241
0.1082
0.0110
0.2442
0.0922
0.6878
Step 1
Emission
Factor
(Ib/ton)
140.8
104.4
140.8
104.4
15.9
140.8
18.4
46
Step 1
Tons/
Appl/Yr
0.0662
0.0509
0.1241
0.1082
0.0110
0.1489
0.0922
0.1719
Alternative
Step 2
Emission
Factor
(Ib/ton)
77.4
104.4
77.4
104.4
14.31
77.4
9.2
9.2
Alternative
Step 2
Tons/
AppL/Year
0.0364
0.0509
0.0683
0.1082
0.0099
0.0819
0.0461
0.0344
Alternative
Step 3
Emission
Factor
(Ib/ton)
40.269
54.288
40.269
54.288
7.441
40.269
3.680
3.680
Alternative
Step 3
Tons/Appl./
Year
0.0189
0.0264
0.0355
0.0563
0.0052
0.0426
0.0184
0.0138
-------
Using the same assumptions as we used for PM2.5, we calculated CO emissions at
baseline and for the two NSPS options we are considering. Table 4-13 shows the annual baseline
emissions for CO for 2008 to 2022, and Tables 4-14 and 4-15 show the CO emissions under the
Proposed and Alternative options.
4-23
-------
Table 4-13. Estimated CO Emissions (Tons): Baseline
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Wood stoves 10,918 6,976 6,697 6,831 6,968 7,107 7,249 7,394 7,542 7,693 7,847 8,004 8.164 8,327 8,494
Single burn rate 9,766 6,241 5,991 6,111 6,233 6,358 6,485 6,614 6,747 6,882 7.019 7,160 7,303 7,449 7,598
stoves
Pellet stoves 1,438 919 882 900 918 936 955 974 994 1,014 1,034 1,055 1,076 1,097 1,119
Furnace: indoor, 28,198 18,019 17,298 17,644 17,997 18,357 18,724 19,098 19,480 19,870 20,267, 20,672 21,086 21,508 21,938
cordwood
Hydronic heating 12,343 7,887 7,572 7,723 7,878 8,035 8,196 8,360 8,527 8,698 8,872 9,049 9,230 9,415 9,603
systems
Total 62,663 40,042 38,440 39,209 39,993 40,793 41,609 42,441 43,290 44,156 45,039 45,940 46,858 47,796 48,751
f' Table 4-14. Estimated CO Emissions (Tons): Proposed Option
to
.&.
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Wood stoves 10,918 6,976 6,697 6,831 6,968 7,107 7,249 7,394 7,542 7,693 7,847 2,743 2,797 2,853 2,910
Single burn rate 9,766 6,241 5,991 6,111 6,233 6,358 3,956 4,035 4,116 4,198 4,282 1,249 1,274 1,300 1,326
stoves
Pellet stoves 1,438 919 882 900 918 936 955 974 994 1,014 1,034 494 503 513 524
Furnace: indoor, 28,198 18,019 17,298 17,644 17,997 18,357 4,681 4,775 4,870 4,967 5,067 413 422 430 439
cordwood
Hydronic heating 12,343 7,887 7,572 7,723 7,878 8,035 820 836 853 870 887 181 185 188 192
systems
Total 62,663 40,042 38,440 39,209 39,993 40,793 17,661 18,014 18,375 18,742 19,117 5,080 5,181 5,285 5,391
-------
Table 4-15. Estimated CO Emissions (Tons): Alternative Option
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Wood stoves 10,918 6,976 6,697 6,831 6,968 7,107 7,249 7,394 7,542 5,069 5,171 5,274 5,380 5,487 2,910
Single burn rate 9,766 6,241 5,991 6,111 6,233 6,358 3,956 4,035 4,116 2,309 2,355 2,402 2,450 2,499 1,326
stoves
Pellet stoves 1,438 919 882 900 918 936 955 974 994 912 930 949 968 987 524
Furnace: indoor, 28,198 18,019 17,298 17,644 17,997 18,357 4,681 4,775 4,870 993 1,013 1,034 1,054 1,075 439
cordwood
Hydronic heating 12,343 7,887 7,572 7,723 7,878 8,035 820 836 853 435 444 452 461 471 192
systems
Total 62,663 40,042 38,440 39,209 39,993 40,793 17,661 18,014 18,375 9,719 9,913 10,112 10,314 10,520 5,391
to
-------
From the tables above, we can show that the CO emission reductions in 2022 are the
same for each option at 43,360 tons. The average of the annual CO emission reductions between
the year of rule promulgation, 2014, and the year that both options are fully implemented (2022)
is 32,559 tons for the Proposed option and 32,873 tons for the Alternative option.
4-26
-------
SECTION 5
COST ANALYSIS, ENERGY IMPACTS, AND EXECUTIVE ORDER ANALYSES
In this section, we provide the estimates of total compliance costs and background behind
their estimation. In addition, we provide a qualitative economic impact analysis of the proposed
rule's impact on consumer and producer decisions, a qualitative discussion on unfunded
mandates that may occur as a result of this final rule, and a partial analysis of the impacts of this
proposal on employment. We used the direct annual compliance costs as an approximate
measure of total social costs.
Given these constraints, several economic frameworks can be used to estimate the
economic impacts and social costs of regulations; however, OAQPS has traditionally relied on
partial equilibrium market models. Previous NSPS economic impact analyses for the residential
wood stove market were prepared reflecting such a model standpoint. However, the current data
do not provide sufficient details to develop a market model; the data that are available have little
or no sector/firm detail and are reported at the national level. In addition, some sectors have
unique market characteristics that make developing partial equilibrium models difficult.
Therefore, we have prepared the economic impact analysis using a qualitative partial equilibrium
framework.
5.1 Background for Compliance Costs
5.1.1 Estimated Research and Development (R&D) Costs
5.1.1.1 Residential Wood Heaters (except for masonry heaters)
EPA has received various estimates of the costs to bring a wood heater from concept to
completion, from $300,000 for a single model to $1,360,000 for a 4-firebox model line. A recent
Hearth and Home article estimated the total cost to bring a model from conception to market as
$645,000 to $750,000 for steel stoves and over $1 million for cast-iron, enameled wood stoves.
The authors indicated that costs would decrease for separate models in the same line by up to
25%. Based on this information, we estimate that a 4-model steel line would cost up to $328,125
per model to develop. These costs include marketing, design, developing first generation, second
generation and prototype units; NSPS and safety testing, equipment tooling, etc. The
manufacturer supplying these figures for the article estimated that the NSPS and safety testing
component of these costs would constitute $40,000 per model. This manufacturer said that
5-1
-------
development time is 12 to 14 months for non-catalytic heaters and 10 to 12 months for catalytic
heaters.33
Another manufacturer estimated costs of new product development, including design,
prototype development, testing, tooling equipment and other manufacturing changes, marketing
support, materials, training, and education to be in excess of $300,000 over an 8- to 12-month
schedule for a relatively uncomplicated product. Costs will increase for products that have more
sophisticated controls. 34 One other manufacturer estimated that their typical model development
costs are around $200,000/model.35
Two manufacturers suggested a 14- to 18-month time frame is required to develop a new
firebox, but added that it will take from 5 to 6 years of intensive engineering and R&D efforts to
have a model line consisting of 4 boxes ready for manufacture. They agreed that knowledge of
the process obtained during each firebox development will shorten (somewhat) the time
necessary, but not enough to consider within a guiding framework. These manufacturers also
provided estimated development costs for a 4-box model line, presented in Table 5-1 below.36
Table 5-1. Example of Manufacturers' Estimates of Costs to Develop Model Line (4
Fireboxes)
Cost
Component
Salaries
Laboratory
Equipment
Prototypes
Test Fuel3
Estimated
Costs Notes
$850,000 Using 2-full time experimented employees to bring the products to market, salaries
and benefits are estimated at $160,000 per year for at least 5.3 years. Tasks include
design, prototyping, testing, production-line integration, and marketing.
$50,000 In order to accelerate R&D and avoid validating each result with independent
testing labs (too costly for most manufacturers), new testing equipment will need to
be purchased in order to sample flue gases, measure test load weight loss, record
data automatically, and analyze flue gases composition.
$25,000 Numerous prototypes will be needed until the final product can be approved. For
each firebox, estimate that 8 prototypes will be needed, at a cost of $700 each.
Numerous samples of various components will also have to be purchased from
vendors.
$45,000 Each test costs at least $50 in fuel (assuming cribs are used), including waste. An
estimated 150 tests will have to be conducted for each firebox, for a total of $7,500,
or $30,000 for a 4-firebox model line based on crib testing.
(continued)
33 James E. Houck and Paul Tiegs. There's a Freight Train Comin'. Hearth and Home. December 2009.
34 Comments from United States Stove Company, Small Entity Representative. July 13, 2010.
35 Confidential Business Information.
36 NSPS Review/Revision, and Impact on Our Companies: A Manufacturer's Position Statement. Prepared by Stove
Builder International and United States Stove Company. June 2010.
5-2
-------
Table 5-1. Example of Manufacturers' Estimates of Costs to Develop Model Line (4
Fireboxes) (continued)
Cost
Component
Testing
Services3
Outside
Consultants
Re-tooling
Estimated
Costs
$150,000
$160,000
$120,000
Notes
Testing services for emissions, efficiency, and safety are estimated to last
approximately 3 weeks for each firebox. At an average of $1,500 per day plus
travel expenses, this amounts to approximately $25,000 for each firebox, or
$100,000 for a 4-firebox model line based on crib testing.
The average manufacturer will need outside help for design and testing. Testing
equipment, knowledge of the test standard, and general guidance is normally
offered by outside consultants (not necessarily certified EPA test labs). The average
manufacturer will need approximately 300 hours of consulting services per year
($40,000) for 4 years.
For each firebox, new molds and jigs will need to be purchased or produced.
Estimate that re-tooling charges will reach at least $30,000 per firebox, or $120,000
for a 4-firebox model line.
Marketing $25,000 New pictures will need to be taken and all the current marketing material, including
web sites and owner's manuals, will have to be updated.
Total $1,360,000 Equal to $340,000/model
a Note: As described in our unit cost memo, the costs originally provided by industry for this table were presumed
to be based on crib wood testing, not both crib wood and cord wood testing. Therefore we increased the industry-
based "Test Fuel" cost by 50% (to the $45,000 shown above) as well as the industry-based "Testing Services"
cost by 50% (to the $150,000 shown above) in order to estimate the additional cost to test with both crib wood
and cord wood.
For this analysis, we used the costs provided in the Table 5 -1 example, scaled to a single
model and spread over a 6-year model development time frame. We prepared an annualized
R&D cost estimate by separating cost elements into direct annual costs (salaries) vs. indirect
annual costs (laboratory equipment, retooling and other capital costs). We estimated annual
capital costs during the amortized R&D cost period as the fraction that the indirect costs (IAC)
are of the Total Annual Cost, approximately 34% annually. Ongoing costs such as taxes,
overhead, and other routine expenses would be incurred regardless of the NSPS standard, and are
not included in this analysis. Table 5-2 shows the estimated annualized cost of $63,850 per
model, assuming an amortization period of 6 years and an interest rate of 7%.
Table 5-2. Annual Cost Summary: Development of 4 Model Fireboxesa'b
Direct Annual Costs (DAC)
Operator labor $141,667 Annual salary cost from Table 1, spread over 6 years."
Outside Consultants $26,667 Annual outside consultant cost from Table 1, spread over 6 years."
Total Direct Costs (DC) $168,333
(continued)
5-3
-------
a,b
Table 5-2. Annual Cost Summary: Development of 4 Model Fireboxes3' (continued)
Indirect Annual Costs (IAC)
Laboratory Equipment3
Re-toolingb
Other Capital Costs'3
Total Indirect Costs (IAC)
Total Annual Cost
Total Annual Cost
$10,490 The laboratory equipment cost of $50,000 was amortized over 6
years at an interest rate of 7%.
$25,175 The re-tooling cost of $120,000 was amortized over 6 years at an
interest rate of 7%.
$51,400 Other capital costs include costs for prototypes ($25,000), test fuel
($45,000), testing services ($150,000), and marketing ($25,000)
and were amortized over 6 years at an interest rate of 7%.
$87,065
$255,399 Annual cost for development of 4 model fireboxes.
$63,850 Average annual cost per firebox model.
a An amortization period of 6 years for laboratory equipment, retooling and other capital costs was chosen based on
industry's estimate that approximately 5 to 6 years of R&D are required to bring a product to market.
b As described in the unit cost memo, to estimate the additional cost to test with both cord wood and crib wood, the
test fuel industry estimate of $30,000 based on crib only was increased by $15,000 and the testing services
industry estimate of $100,000 based on crib only (which covered not only emissions testing but also efficiency
and safety testing) was increased by $50,000.
5.1.2 Masonry Heaters
Masonry heaters manufacturing cost impacts vary by the type of producer and the type of
certification method. According to one manufacturer,37 the masonry heater industry in the U.S. is
dominated by the Finnish firm Tulikivi, which manufactures and imports about half of the U.S.
masonry heater units installed yearly through its network of installing distributors. The same
manufacturer said that the second largest producer is a Canadian firm, Temp-Cast. The
remainder of the industry is made up of "dozens" of small producers, with probably fewer than
100 (or at least fewer than 200) generating any masonry revenue at all. Some commercial
operations sell core units and/or design kits based on their own design, and other sell units they
license from other U.S. or foreign companies. Finally, some units are custom built. Based on this
information, we assumed that 50% of masonry heaters sold per year in the U.S. are Tulikivi
models and 35% are sold by other manufacturers. The remaining 15% of units are sold by
independent contractors.
There are three major cost components to consider in evaluating the potential cost
impacts of the proposed NSPS: research and development (R&D), certification testing, and
licensing fees for use of a computer software package approved for use in certifying a model
37 Comments: Residential Solid Fuel Burning Appliance SBREFA Process. Product Category: Masonry Heaters.
July 13, 2010. Timothy Seaton, Timely Construction, Inc. p. 5.
5-4
-------
design. According to information provided by one manufacturer, capital R&D costs for a
masonry heater may be estimated at $250,OOO.38 In the absence of more specific data regarding
R&D costs for masonry heaters, we assumed R&D costs were the same as for other wood heater
appliances—that is, $63,850 annually for a 6-year R&D amortization period. For facilities
conducting R&D, these costs include the costs for certification testing. We estimate that the cost
of testing a heater design in an EPA accredited lab to be approximately $10,000.39
This cost analysis also makes use of a unique software package based on a European
masonry heater design standard. This standard has been verified in the laboratory and under field
conditions to produce masonry heaters that would meet the proposed NSPS emission limits. The
software produces for printout a certification for a given design application and the design
definition documents as well as operating instructions customized to the given design, so that the
software verification and certification record is created for and attached to the design. The
resulting documents can be submitted as part of the certification application. The cost of this
software to the user is approximately 1,000 Euros (approximately $1,500) for the package with a
300 Euro (approximately $450) annual fee that commences in the second year following
1 40
purchase.
5.1.3 General Approach and Assumptions for Costs to Manufacturers
Manufacturers have told us that it takes several years to develop new models, and this is
documented in the manufacturer's cost memo.41 We have spread the annualized R&D costs
(shown in Table 5-2) over 6 years to best represent the time and funds needed to develop the
complying models. For the purposes of our cost estimate, we have assumed that when the NSPS
revisions are proposed, all manufacturers will begin serious efforts to develop complying
models, although for some manufacturers we also know that they have been involved in
intensive R&D efforts in anticipation of the proposed rule.
We estimated both the average annual cost to manufacturers of each appliance type and
then extended those costs to nationwide total annual costs. The basic components to each
manufacturer's estimated annual cost are:
38 Comments: Residential Solid Fuel Burning Appliance SBREFA Process. Product Category: Masonry Heaters.
July 13, 2010. Timothy Seaton, Timely Construction, Inc. p. 14.
39 Letter to Lucinda Power, EPA, from Brian Klipfel, Fire Works Masonry. September 10, 2010.
40 E-mail from Timothy Seaton, Timely Construction Company, to Gil Wood, USEPA. April 21, 2011.
4141 Memo to Gil Wood, USEPA, from Jill Mozier, EC/R, Inc. Estimated Wood Heater Manufacturer Cost Impacts.
February 22, 2013.
5-5
-------
• Annualized R&D cost;
• Ongoing annual Certification cost; and
• Ongoing annual Reporting and Record Keeping cost.
The Annualized R&D costs (shown in Table 5-2, and based on the Table 5-1 costs) are
by far the largest cost component and we have applied these costs to most models in our cost
analysis—especially to models in previously unregulated appliance categories—in order to
present a reasonable estimate of the costs given uncertainty over the precision of available
estimate of the R&D cycle lifespan. For example, as noted above, instead of estimating the
number of hydronic heater models that already meet a specific limit and will therefore merely
need to certify their emissions rather than undergo R&D, we instead assumed that 100% of
hydronic heater models will undergo R&D beginning in 2013. We made similar reasonable
assumptions for single burn rate stoves and forced air furnaces.
Under the Proposal scenario, one round of R&D is assumed—beginning in 2013 and
ending in 2018—in order to meet the proposed Step 2 limit. Under the Alternative option, two
rounds of R&D are assumed for all appliances except masonry heaters (for which there is only
one standard with no additional phased-in standards to meet). Under the Alternative option, the
first R&D round begins in 2013 and the second round begins in 2017 (which causes overlapping
R&D costs in years 2017 and 2018 in this analysis)—in order to meet the interim Alternative
Step 2 limit in 2017 and the Alternative Step 3 limit in 2022. We also reasonably assumed that of
the models undergoing the first round of R&D costs, 80% of these models undergo and assume
the second round of R&D costs in the Alternative scenario (i.e., we reasonably assumed that only
20% of models achieve the strictest limit in the first round of R&D).
Furthermore, for appliances like single burn rate stoves and forced air furnaces, which
were previously unregulated (and also were not pushed technologically by a voluntary program,
as hydronic heaters were), we have reasonably doubled R&D costs during years 2013 and 2014.
This doubling of R&D cost estimates is to represent an intensification of the R&D efforts to meet
the Step 1 limit and begin development of models to meet the stricter stepped limits—R&D
efforts which industry has indicated are already ongoing.42
42 2/8/13 telephone discussion between Gil Wood, USEPA, and a manufacturer of forced air furnaces and single
burn rate stoves.
5-6
-------
Note that all manufacturers, except for wood stoves that are subject to the current 1988
NSPS, will face ongoing certification costs above baseline conditions. However, in the 2013 to
2018 time frame under the Proposal option and in the 2013 to 2022 time frame under the
Alternative option, we have incorporated these costs as part of the overall R&D expenditures.
After 2018 under the Proposal option and after 2022 under the Alternative option, the ongoing
certification costs will be the only NSPS related costs faced by manufacturers besides ongoing
reporting and recordkeeping costs.
Regarding certification costs, we have assumed a cost of $10,000 per model for pellet
stoves, single burn rate stoves and masonry heaters; and we have assumed a cost of $20,000 per
model for hydronic heaters and forced air furnaces.43 We have spread these costs out over the 5
year certification life, assuming annual certification costs for one-fifth of the models.
For example, pellet stoves will incur certification costs in advance of complying with
more stringent limits. As explained in the manufacturer's cost memo,44 approximately 30% of
existing pellet stove models are expected to comply with the proposed Step 2 and Alternative
Step 3 standard. However, in order to be sold, these stove models would now be required to
demonstrate compliance with an emissions limit, incurring an upfront cost of $10,000 per model
to become certified. The same cost memo also discusses our assumption that one fifth of the
pellet stove models will certify in any given year.
We based reporting and recordkeeping (R&R) costs on the annual average costs derived
from development of the Information Collection Request (ICR) supporting statements.45 These
are reasonable annual estimates of the ongoing R&R burden to manufacturers associated with the
Proposal and Alternative scenarios. (We do not expect the R&R burden to differ substantially
between the two scenarios.)
The certification and reporting and recordkeeping costs were estimated to be incurred by
manufacturers for the full 20-year model design lifespan.46 Under the Proposal, we estimated
costs from 2013 through 2038—that is, 20 years after the 2019 compliance year marking the
beginning of the model lifespan designed to meet the Proposal Step 2 limit. Under the
43 Conversation with Dennis Brazier, Central Boiler. August 9, 2010.
44 Memo to Gil Wood, USEPA, from Jill Mozier, EC/R, Inc. Estimated Wood Heater Manufacturer Cost Impacts.
February 22, 2013.
45 ICR Supporting Statements for the Proposed NSPS Subparts have not been finalized as of the date of this memo.
46 Memo to Gil Wood, USEPA, from Jill Mozier, EC/R, Inc. Unit Cost Estimates of Residential Wood Heating
Appliances. February 21, 2013.
5-7
-------
Alternative, we estimated costs from 2013 through 2041—that is, 20 years after the 2022
compliance year marking the beginning of the model lifespan designed to meet the Alternative
Step 3 limit. We provide these costs in the manufacturer's cost memo.
5.1.4 General Approach and Assumptions for Costs to Masonry Heater Manufacturers
As noted above, we addressed masonry heaters in a way which segmented the costs in
keeping with the masonry heater market. There are three scenarios for potential cost impacts for
large masonry heater manufacturers. In the case of Tulikivi and some U.S. firms, e.g., Timely
Construction, these companies have already invested in R&D in order to gain access to U.S.
markets which restrict sales (e.g., Colorado) of uncertified units. These companies will face
testing costs only, with an assumed total of nine tests conducted prior to the proposed
compliance date (i.e., to certify a total of nine model lines). For purposes of our cost analysis, we
assumed as shown in the unit cost memo that two additional companies will conduct R&D to
develop two new models each to meet the proposed NSPS.47 Finally, we have been told that
Tulikivi will use the software certification approach to certify up to eight additional models. We
also project as presented in the unit cost memo that the remaining 15% of custom built units will
use the software certification approach to certify compliance with the proposed NSPS starting in
2013 (estimated date of the proposed standards) and that they will continue to renew their license
in the following years.
As explained in the unit cost memo, we used data in the Frost & Sullivan Market (F&S)
report48 on 2008 masonry heater shipments by product category and F&S revenue forecasts
which incorporated the weak economy in years 2009 and 2010, to calculate the reduced number
of shipments in years 2009 and 2010. For years 2011 through 2038 (for the Proposal option) and
2011 through 2041 (for the Alternative option) estimated shipments are based on a forecasted
revenue growth rate of 2.0%, in keeping with the average annual growth in real GDP predicted
by the Conference Board.49 For masonry heaters, our estimate of the number of custom built
models is based on the average number of models sold per year in the 15% model category (i.e.,
85 per year). We assumed each custom manufacturer would sell 2 models per year, for a total of
42 manufacturers participating in the software certification option.
47U.S.EPA. Memorandum. Unit Cost Estimates of Wood Heating Appliances. February 21, 2013. Prepared by
EC/R, Inc.
48 Market Research and Report on North American Residential Wood Heaters, Fireplaces, and Hearth Heating
Products Market. Prepared by Frost & Sullivan. April 26, 2010. P. 31-32.
49 2013 Global Outlook projections prepared by the Conference Board in November 2012; http://www.conference-
board.org/data/globaloutlook.cfm.
5-8
-------
Under both the Proposal and Alternative options, most sales-weighted masonry heater
units face a 2014 Step 1 compliance date with no other phased-in limits. However, under both
the Proposal and Alternative options, companies that sell fewer than 15 units per year have until
2019 to come into compliance. We have assumed that the large manufacturers will comply by
2014 for the units that only require testing and/or software certification, with those expenditures
incurred annually starting in 2013. We also assumed that the 15% of custom built units will
comply by 2019, but will begin certifying their units using the software certification approach as
early as 2013, as noted above, as a selling point for their services. For those companies that start
R&D when the NSPS is proposed in 2013, we have assumed that they will spread these costs
over the 6-year period from 2013 through 2018 for the four models affected, under both the
Proposal and Alternative options.
5.1.5 General Approach and Assumptions for All Appliances
Below is a list of approach and assumptions for estimating costs for each category of
appliances affected by this proposal, as taken from the manufacturer cost memo:50
1. Nationwide Annual Cost assumes R&D investment is amortized over 6 years (2013
through 2018). Ongoing certification costs are incurred through 2038 (based on a
model brought to market in 2019 with a lifespan of 20 years), except for woodstoves
which already incur certification costs under the existing NSPS.
2. Since certification is required every 5 years (except for the software certification
option for masonry heaters), it is assumed that certification costs will be spread out so
that 1/5 of the models certify each year.
3. This analysis considers additional costs resulting from the proposed NSPS. For wood
stoves, the analysis assumes that 5% meet Step 2 already so that 95% of the models
will undergo re-design to meet the Step 2 level. The costs modeled for years 2020
through 2038 exclude the ongoing certification costs and ongoing reporting and
recordkeeping costs incurred by wood stove manufacturers who already had to certify
and report under the existing NSPS.
4. For pellet stoves, the analysis assumes that 30% meet Step 2 already so that 70% of
models undergo R&D re-design to meet Step 2. The R&D budget includes
certification costs. The analysis also assumes that the 30% of the pellet stove models
which already meet Step 2 will certify in an ongoing basis starting in 2013. The
analysis reflects the certification costs beginning in 2013 for the 30% of models
meeting Step 2, and beginning in 2019 for the remaining 70% of models which
underwent R&D re-design.
50 U.S. EPA. Memorandum. Estimated Residential Wood Heater Manufacturer Cost Impacts. February 22, 2013.
Prepared by EC/R, Inc.
5-9
-------
5. Based on conversations with industry in February 2013, single burn rate stoves and
forced air furnaces have been undergoing R&D prior to 2013 to develop cleaner
models. Because these devices were previously unregulated and may need to transfer
technology from adjustable burn rate stoves and hydronic heaters respectively, this
analysis assumes that these efforts will intensify in 2013 and 2014. Therefore
estimated R&D costs are doubled in 2013 and 2014 in order to meet the 2014 Step 1
standard while also beginning R&D to develop models to meet the more stringent
2019 Step 2 standard.
6. For single burn rate stoves, forced air furnaces, and hydronic heating systems, the
analysis assumes that only a small percentage meet Step 2 so that approximately
100% of the models undergo R&D re-design to meet Step 2. The R&D budget
includes certification costs. Ongoing certification costs for the re-designed models are
reflected in this analysis beginning in 2019.
7. For masonry heaters, the cost analysis assumes one round of R&D to meet 0.32
Ib/mmBTU standard (no additional stepped standards, although large manufacturers
will be required to meet the limit in 2014, while small volume manufacturers will be
given a 5 year extension until 2019 to meet the limit). For masonry heater
manufacturers using software certification, the analysis assumes the purchased
software will be used for certifying all models developed by that manufacturer.
8. Reporting and recordkeeping costs (R&R) [for all appliances but masonry heaters]
are based on the annual average costs derived from the ICR and are estimates of the
ongoing R&R burden to manufacturers associated with the proposed NSPS. The
annual average nationwide R&R burden estimated to manufacturers for Subpart AAA
is $440,443, and for Subpart QQQQ is $119,249. These R&R costs do not include the
R&R burden to laboratories; the annual average nationwide R&R burden incurred by
laboratories subject to requirements under Subpart AAA is estimated to be $75,745,
and incurred by laboratories subject to requirements under Subpart QQQQ is
estimated to be $50,496.
9. For Masonry Heaters, Reporting and recordkeeping costs (R&R) are based on the
annual average costs derived from the ICR and are estimates of the ongoing R&R
burden to manufacturers associated with the proposed NSPS. The annual average
nationwide R&R burden estimated to manufacturers for Subpart RRRR is $98,788 for
small/custom masonry heater manufacturers and $25,929 for large masonry heater
manufacturers. These R&R costs do not include the R&R burden to laboratories; the
annual average nationwide R&R burden incurred by laboratories subject to
requirements under Subpart RRRR is estimated to be $37,872.
For the Alternative option for all appliances, here are the assumptions for cost estimations
where they differ from those in the Proposed option:
1. Nationwide Annual Cost assumes R&D investment is amortized over 6 years (round
one from 2013 through 2018 and round two from 2017 through 2022). Ongoing
certification costs are incurred through 2041 (based on a model brought to market in
5-10
-------
2022 with a lifespan of 20 years), except for woodstoves which already incur
certification costs under the existing NSPS.
2. (Same as above)
3. This analysis considers additional costs resulting from the proposed NSPS. For wood
stoves, the analysis assumes that 5% meet Step 3 already so that 95% of the models
will undergo re-design in round one, and 80% of those 95% will require another
round of R&D to meet the Step 3 level. The costs exclude the ongoing certification
costs and ongoing reporting and recordkeeping costs incurred by wood stove
manufacturers who already had to certify and report under the existing NSPS.
4. For pellet stoves, the analysis assumes that 30% meet Step 3 already so that 70% of
models undergo re-design in round one, and 80% of those 70% require another round
of R&D to meet Step 3. The R&D budget includes certification costs. The analysis
also assumes that the 30% of the pellet stove models which already meet Step 3 will
certify in an ongoing basis starting in 2013.
5. Based on conversations with industry in February 2013, single burn rate stoves and
forced air furnaces have been undergoing R&D prior to 2013 to develop cleaner
models. Because these devices were previously unregulated and may need to transfer
technology from adjustable burn rate stoves and hydronic heaters respectively, this
analysis assumes that these efforts will intensify in 2013 and 2014. Therefore
estimated R&D costs are doubled in 2013 and 2014 in order to meet the 2014 Step 1
standard while also beginning R&D to develop models to meet the more stringent
2017 Step 2 and 2022 Step 3 standards.
6. For single burn rate stoves, forced air furnaces, and hydronic heating systems, the
analysis assumes that only a small percentage meet Step 3 so that approximately
100% of the models undergo re-design in round one, and 80% require another round
of R&D to meet Step 3. The R&D budget includes certification costs.
5.1.6 Labor Requirements for Monitoring, Recordkeeping and Reporting
The focus of this part of the analysis is on labor requirements related to the compliance
actions of the affected entities within the affected sector. This analysis estimates the labor
requirements associated with new reporting and recordkeeping requirements.
The labor changes may either be required as part of an initial effort to comply with the
new regulation or required as a continuous or annual effort to maintain compliance. We estimate
up-front and continual, annual labor requirements by estimating hours of labor required for the
monitoring, recordkeeping, and reporting efforts to maintain compliance.
The results of this analysis are presented in Table 5-3 for the Proposed NSPS option. The
table breaks down the certification, quality assurance, reporting and recordkeeping burden and
5-11
-------
labor estimates by appliance type for each of the proposed subparts and for the test labs to obtain
and maintain testing accreditation. These estimates are presented in terms of the estimated hours
required. These estimates are consistent with estimates EPA submitted as part of the Information
Collection Requests (ICRs) that are in the Supporting Statements for the proposed rules.
We note that certification testing (once every 5 years unless a waiver is granted) costs of
approximately $10,000 ($20,000 for hydronic heaters and forced air furnaces) per model line in
2022 result in labor hours spent at the test lab, which are not included in this labor rate analysis.
In addition, each model that is developed (i.e., number of affected units) will face an annual
estimated cost of $160,000 for the salaries of two full-time experimental employees for 5 years.
This estimate should be regarded as a partial labor estimate, with other possible labor associated
with new model development (such as re-tooling) left as unquantified and described qualitatively
in the manufacturer cost and unit cost impact memos.
Ongoing labor requirements are estimated at about 9,900 hours for the Proposed option.
The labor estimate for the Alternative option will not be substantially different to that for the
proposed option since there are no additional labor requirements for administrative matters under
the Alternative option compared to the Proposed option.51 These ongoing labor requirements can
be viewed as average sustained labor requirements required for affected entities to continuously
comply with the new regulations from 2019 and beyond.
51 Memo to Gil Wood, USEPA, fromEC/R, Inc. Residential Wood Heating Cost Effectiveness Analysis.
February 26, 2013.
5-12
-------
Table 5-3. Estimates of Labor Requirements for Certification, Quality Assurance,
Reporting, Recordkeeping, and Accreditation Requirements for the Proposed
NSPS Option3
Source/Emissions Point
Projected No.
of Affected
Units
Per-Unit
One-Time
Labor
Estimate
(Hours)
Total
One-Time
Labor
Estimate
(Hours)
Total Annual Labor
Estimate (Hours)
Adjustable burn rate stoves 125
not needing certification
testing
Single burn rate stoves 20
Existing models at large
manufacturers certified via
testing
Existing models at large
manufacturers certified via
computer simulation
Existing models at small
manufacturers certified via
computer simulation
Test Labs
Removable Label
Total for Industry
13
85
517
0
0
0
0
1,784
283
Pellet stoves
Test Labs
Removable Label
Hydronic heaters — model
development
Forced air furnaces — model
development
Test Labs
Removable Label
125
6
90
38
4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,779
597
1,017
1,290
539
398
332
187
113
1,275
298.5
4.46
9,893
a The labor requirements for the Alternative option are not substantially different than those for the Proposed
option.
Note: Totals may not sum due to independent rounding. The Agency assumes in its cost analysis of monitoring,
recordkeeping, reporting, and testing requirements in the Information Collection Request (ICR) that only half of
the currently available models for all appliance types would be certified and sold.
5-13
-------
5.2 Compliance Costs of the Proposed Rule
EPA's engineering cost analysis estimates that the total annualized cost of the proposed
rule option to manufacturers for the Proposed option is $15.7 million, calculated as an average of
the annualized costs incurred from 2014 to 2022. For the alternative option, the total annualized
cost is $28.3 million (all costs are reported in 2010 dollars) (EC/R, December 2011) Annualized
costs are estimated at a 7% interest rate.52 We calculate the costs in this way in order to provide
an average of annualized costs for these options from the time of rule promulgation in 2014 to
the time of full implementation of both options, which occurs in 2022. Having an average
annualized calculation for the costs allows for a reasonable measure of the costs to be incurred
by manufacturers given the changes in costs year by year between 2014 and 2022 as shown in
the manufacturer's cost memo for this proposal. The total annualized costs for each year and for
each option are in Table 5-4.
With total annualized costs estimated at a 3% interest rate, the total annualized cost of the
proposal option is $14.8 million, and $26.9 million for the alternative option (in 2010 dollars).
More detailed information on the costs at a 3% interest rate can be found in the cost
memorandum for this proposal.
Under the proposed NSPS option, the costs in the 2014-2022 time frame fall most heavily
on manufacturers of hydronic heating systems (29%), followed by wood stoves (27%), then by
pellet stoves (22%). The remaining 22% of the costs are distributed to forced-air furnace
manufacturers (14%), manufacturers of single burn rate stoves (6%), and masonry heaters (2%).
52 EC/R, Inc. to U.S. EPA, Draft Memorandum. Estimated Residential Wood Heater Manufacturer Cost Impacts.
February 22, 2013.
5-14
-------
Table 5-4. Summary of Average Annualized Nationwide Costs for 2014-2022 Time
Frame Under the Proposal and Alternative Options
Appliance Type
Wood Heaters
Single Burn Rate Heaters
Pellet Stoves
Forced- Air Furnaces
Hydronic Heating Systems
Masonry Heaters
Total Average Annual Cost for 2014-2022 Time Frame
Proposed Option
$4,212,303
$901,732
$3,460,489
$2,252,284
$4,554,152
$307,511
$15,688,471
Alternative Option
$8,090,026
$1,540,600
$6,255,536
$3,813,898
$8,302,026
$307,511
$28,309,597
For the alternative option, the annualized costs fall most heavily of manufacturers of
hydronic heaters (29%) and wood stoves (29%), followed by pellet stoves (22%). The remaining
20% of the costs are distributed to manufacturers of forced air heaters (13%), single burn rate
stoves (5%), and masonry heaters (2%).
The revised rule, as proposed would affect an estimated 2.7 million new residential wood
heating devices between 2014 and 2022 assuming an average of-296,000 new shipments
annually as presented in the emissions memo for the proposal.53 As shown previously in Table 4-
4 in Section 4, annual shipments are forecasted to increase for all product types over the same
time period.
To assess the size of the compliance costs relative to the value of shipments to end-use
consumers, we compared industry-level compliance costs relative to projected sales for 2018
since this is year between 2014 and 2022 and is a representative year suitable for this analysis. In
this case, cost-to-receipts ratios approximate the maximum price increase needed for a producer
to fully recover the annual compliance costs associated with a regulation. These industry-level
cost-to-receipts ratios can be interpreted as an average impact on potentially affected firms in
these industries all other things equal, and where ratios less than 1% suggest the rule will not
have a significant impact using EPA's SBREFA guidance as a basis. Results for affected
industries for the 2014-2022 time frame can be found in Tables 5-4a and 5-4b.
53
U.S. EPA. Memorandum Estimated Emissions from Wood Heaters. February 15, 2013. Prepared by EC/R, Inc.
5-15
-------
Under the NSPS proposal option, none of the six affected product types would have an
annualized cost-to-receipts ratio of less than 1%. In the 2014-2022 time frame for this option,
cost-to-receipts ratios range from 2.3% for pellet stoves to 6.4% for single burn rate stoves as
shown in Table 5-5a. For the alternative option, cost-to-receipts ratios range from 4.0% for
forced air furnaces to 10.7% for single burn rate stoves as shown in Table 5 -5b.
Table 5-5a. Industry Level-Annualized Compliance Costs (2010 dollars) as a Fraction of
Total Industry Revenue by Product Type in the 2014-2022 Time Frame—
Proposal Option
Product Type
Wood stoves
Single burn rate stoves
Pellet stoves
Forced-air furnaces
Masonry heaters
Hydronic heating systems
Total Annualized Costs
($ millions)
$4.2
$0.9
$3.5
$2.3
$0.3
$4.5
Product Sales in 2018
($ millions)3
$98.1
$14.0
$152.8
$96.6
$6.3
$134.4
Cost-to-Receipts
Ratio
4.3%
6.4%
2.3%
2.4%
4.8%
3.3%
a Sales based on projected product shipments and average unit costs estimates. We use annual sales in 2018 to
approximate annual sales for years from 2014 to 2022. Total annualized costs in this table are estimated at a 7%
interest rate.
Sources: Masonry Heater Compliance Costs from Masonry Heater NSPS Annual Cost 12 8 ll.xls. Received from
EPA on December 16, 2011.
Unit Costs and Shipment Projections from Unit Cost Memo. Received by EPA in February, 2013.
Industry Compliance Costs from Wood Stove NSPS Annual Costs. Received by EPA February, 2013.
5-16
-------
Table 5-5b. Industry Level-Annualized Compliance Costs (2010 dollars) as a Fraction of
Total Industry Revenue by Product Type in 2014-2022 Time Frame—
Alternative Option
Product Type
Wood stoves
Single burn rate stoves
Pellet stoves
Forced-air furnaces
Masonry heaters
Hydronic heating systems
Total Annualized Costs
($ millions)
$8.1
$1.5
$6.2
$3.8
$0.3
$8.3
Product Sales in 2018
($ millions)3
$98.1
$14.0
$152.8
$96.6
$6.3
$134.4
Cost-to-Receipts
Ratio
8.3%
10.7%
4.1%
4.0%
4.8%
6.1%
a Sales based on projected product shipments and average unit costs estimates. We use annual sales in 2018 to
approximate annual sales for years from 2014 to 2022. Total annualized costs are estimated at a 7% interest rate.
Sources: Masonry Heater Compliance Costs from Masonry Heater NSPS Annual Cost 12 8 ll.xls. Received from
EPA on December 16, 2011.
Unit Costs and Shipment Projections from Unit Cost Memo. Received by EPA in February, 2013.
Industry Compliance Costs from Wood Stove NSPS Annual Costs. Received by EPA February, 2013.
5.3 How Might People and Firms Respond? A Qualitative Partial Equilibrium Analysis
Markets are composed of people as consumers and producers acting as economic agents
to maximize utility or profits, respectively. One way economists illustrate behavioral responses
to pollution control costs is by using market supply and demand diagrams. The market supply
curve describes how much of a good or service firms are willing and able to sell to people at a
particular price; we often draw this curve as upward sloping because some production resources
are fixed. As a result, the cost of producing an additional unit typically rises as more units are
made. The market demand curve describes how much of a good or service consumers are willing
and able to buy at some price. Holding other factors constant, the quantity demanded is assumed
to fall when prices rise. In a perfectly competitive market, equilibrium price (Po) and quantity
(Qo) are determined by the intersection of the supply and demand curves (see Figure 5-2).
5.3.1 Changes in Market Ibices and Quantities
To qualitatively assess how the regulation may influence the equilibrium price and
quantity in the affected markets, we assumed the market supply function shifts up by the
additional cost of producing the good or service; the unit cost increase is typically calculated by
dividing the annual compliance cost estimate by the baseline quantity (Qo) (see Figure 5-2). As
shown, this model makes two predictions: the price of the affected goods and services are likely
to rise and the consumption/production levels are likely to fall.
5-17
-------
The size of these changes depends on two factors: the size of the unit cost increase
(supply shift) and differences in how each side of the market (supply and demand) responds to
changes in price. Economists measure responses using the concept of price elasticity, which
represents the percentage change in quantity divided by the percentage change in price. This
dependence has been expressed in the following formula:54
07 . Price Elasticity of Supply
Share ojper-umt cost = —
Elasticity of Supply- Price Elasticity of Demand)^
As a general rule, a higher share of the per-unit cost increases will be passed on to
consumers in markets where
• goods and services are necessities and people do not have good substitutes that they
can switch to easily (demand is inelastic) and
• suppliers have excess capacity and can easily adjust production levels at minimal
costs, or the time period of analysis is long enough that suppliers can change their
fixed resources; supply is more elastic over longer periods.
54 For examples of similar mathematical models in the public finance literature, see Nicholson (1998), pages 444-
447, or Fullerton and Metcalf (2002).
5-18
-------
Price
Increase
Si: With Regulation
Unit Cost Increase
S0: Without Regulation
Qi Qo Output
consumer surplus = -[fghd + dhc]
producer surplus = [fghd - aehb] - bdc
total surplus = consumer surplus + producer surplus = -[aehb + dhc + bdc]
Figure 5-2. Market Demand and Supply Model: With and Without Regulation
Short-run demand elasticities for energy goods (electricity and natural gas), agricultural
products, and construction are often inelastic. Specific estimates of short-run demand elasticities
for these products can be obtained from existing literature. For the short-run demand of energy
products, the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) buildings module uses values between
0.1 and 0.3; a 1% increase in price leads to a 0.1 to 0.3% decrease in energy demand (Wade,
2003). For the short-run demand of agriculture and construction, EPA has estimated elasticities
to be 0.2 for agriculture and approximately 1 for construction (EPA, 2004). As a result, a 1%
increase in the prices of agriculture products would lead to a 0.2% decrease in demand for those
products, while a 1% increase in construction prices would lead to approximately a 1% decrease
in demand for construction. Given these demand elasticity scenarios (shaded in gray),
approximately a 1% increase in unit costs would result in a price increase of 0.1 to 1%
(Table 5-6). As a result, 10 to 100% of the unit cost increase could be passed on to consumers in
the form of higher goods/services prices. This price increase would correspond to a 0.1 to 0.8%
decline in consumption in these markets (Table 5-7).
5-19
-------
Table 5-6. Hypothetical Price Increases for a 1% Increase in Unit Costs
Market Demand
Elasticity
-0.1
-0.3
-0.5
-0.7
-1.0
-1.5
-3.0
Market Supply Elasticity
0.1
0.5%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
0.3
0.8%
0.5%
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.5
0.8%
0.6%
0.5%
0.4%
0.3%
0.3%
0.1%
0.7
0.9%
0.7%
0.6%
0.5%
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
1
0.9%
0.8%
0.7%
0.6%
0.5%
0.4%
0.3%
1.5
0.9%
0.8%
0.8%
0.7%
0.6%
0.5%
0.3%
3
1.0%
0.9%
0.9%
0.8%
0.8%
0.7%
0.5%
Table 5-7. Hypothetical Consumption Decreases for a 1% Increase in Unit Costs
Market Demand
Elasticity
-0.1
-0.3
-0.5
-0.7
-1.0
-1.5
-3.0
Market Supply Elasticity
0
-0.
-o.
-o.
-o.
-o.
-o.
-o.
.1
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
0.3
-0.1%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.3%
-0.3%
0
-0
-0
-o.
-0
-0
-0
-0
.5
.1%
.2%
,3%
.3%
.3%
.4%
.4%
0.7
-0.1%
-0.2%
-0.3%
-0.4%
-0.4%
-0.5%
-0.6%
1
-0.1%
-0.2%
-0.3%
-0.4%
-0.5%
-0.6%
-0.8%
1.5
-0.1%
-0.3%
-0.4%
-0.5%
-0.6%
-0.8%
-1.0%
3
-0.1%
-0.3%
-0.4%
-0.6%
-0.8%
-1.0%
-1.5%
5.3.2 Partial Equilibrium Measures of Social Cost: Changes in Consumer and Producer
Surplus
In partial equilibrium analysis, the social costs are estimated by measuring the changes in
consumer and producer surplus, and these values can be determined using the market supply and
demand model (as shown in Figure 5-2). Assuming linear market supply and demand curves as
shown in Figure 5-2, the change in consumer surplus (CS) is measured as follows:
ACS=-[AQ} x 47]+ [0.5 * AQ * Ap\. (5.1)
where a coefficient of 0.5 is multiplied to the change in Q and P resulting from the shock
to the markets based on the assumption of linear demand and supply curves in the diagram
5-20
-------
above and applying principles of basic geometry. Higher market prices and lower quantities lead
to consumer welfare losses. Similarly, the change in producer surplus (PS) is measured as
follows:
APS = [AQ} x Ap] - [AQ} x t] - [0.5 x AQ x (Ap - t)]. (5.2)
Higher unit costs and lower production levels reduce producer surplus because the net
price change (Ap - t) is negative. However, these losses are mitigated because market prices tend
to rise.
5.4 Social Cost Estimate
As shown in Tables 5-5a and 5-5b, the social cost as approximated by the annual
compliance costs as a percent of sales represent a fraction of the affected product value that is
greater than 1% for each of the product categories; this suggests that the shift of the supply curve
may be relatively large for some product types and result in larger changes in market prices and
consumption. EPA believes the national annualized compliance cost estimates provide a
reasonable approximation of the social cost of this proposed rule. EPA believes this
approximation is better for industries whose markets are well characterized as perfectly
competitive. However, given the data limitations noted earlier, EPA believes the accounting for
annual compliance costs is a reasonable approximation to inform policy discussion in this
rulemaking. We were not able to prepare a full economic analysis of the impacts of this proposal
on supply and demand, or the effects of such impacts on emissions (e.g. feedback effect on
emissions). Most of the affected industries can be characterized as having a high degree of
competitive market behavior. To shed more light on the level of market behavior, EPA ran
hypothetical economic impact analyses and the results are in Tables 5-6 and 5-7.
5.5 Energy Impacts
Executive Order 13211 (66 FR 28355, May 22, 2001) provides that agencies will prepare
and submit to the Administrator of the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs, Office of
Management and Budget, a Statement of Energy Effects for certain actions identified as
"significant energy actions." Section 4(b) of Executive Order 13211 defines "significant energy
actions" as any action by an agency (normally published in the Federal Register) that
promulgates or is expected to lead to the promulgation of a final rule or regulation, including
notices of inquiry, advance notices of proposed rulemaking, and notices of proposed rulemaking:
(1) (i) that is a significant regulatory action under Executive Order 12866 or any successor order,
and (ii) is likely to have a significant adverse effect on the supply, distribution, or use of energy;
5-21
-------
or (2) that is designated by the Administrator of the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs
as a significant energy action.
This rule is not a significant energy action as designated by the Administrator of the
Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs because it is not likely to have a significant adverse
impact on the supply, distribution, or use of energy. In general, we expect the NSPS to improve
technology,. By making the use of wood fuel less polluting and more efficient, we might see an
increase in the use of wood fuel, which would relieve pressure on traditional coal- or petroleum-
based energy sources. However, it is difficult to determine the precise energy impacts that might
result from this rule because wood-fueled appliances compete with other biomass forms as well
as more traditional oil, electricity, and natural gas. We have not determined the potential
conversion to other types of fuels and their associated appliances if the consumer costs of wood-
fueled appliances increase and at what level that increase would drive consumer choice.
5.6 Unfunded Mandates Reform Act (UMRA)
5.6.1 Future and Disproportionate Costs
The UMRA requires that we estimate, where accurate estimation is reasonably feasible,
future compliance costs imposed by the rule and any disproportionate budgetary effects. Our
estimates of the future compliance costs of the proposed rule are discussed previously in this
RIA. The nationwide annualized average compliance cost of this proposed rule for directly
affected appliances is $15.7 million in the 2014-2022 time frame (2010 dollars). Therefore, this
proposed rule would not be subject to the requirements of Sections 202 or 205 of the UMRA
This proposed rule would also not be subject to the requirements of Section 203 of
UMRA because it contains no regulatory requirements that might significantly or uniquely affect
small governments. The proposed rule would not apply to such governments and would impose
no obligations upon them. We do not believe that there will be any disproportionate budgetary
effects of the proposed rule on any particular areas of the country, state or local governments,
types of communities (e.g., urban, rural), or particular industry segments.
5.6.2 Effects on the National Economy
The UMRA requires that we estimate the effect of the proposed rule on the national
economy. To the extent feasible, we must estimate the effect on productivity, economic growth,
full employment, creation of productive jobs, and international competitiveness of U.S. goods
and services if we determine that accurate estimates are reasonably feasible and that such effect
is relevant and material. The nationwide economic impact of the proposed rule is presented
5-22
-------
earlier in this RIA chapter. This analysis provides estimates of the effect of the proposed rule on
most of the categories mentioned above, and these estimates are presented earlier in this RIA
chapter. The nature of this rule is such that it is not practical for us to use existing approaches,
such as the Morgenstern et al. approach,55 to estimate the impact on employment to the regulated
entities and others from this proposed rule. We explain why this is true, and provide impacts
associated with the monitoring, recordkeeping, and reporting requirements to provide some
understanding of what impacts this proposal will have on employment for affected firms in
section 5.7 below.
5.6.3 Executive Order 13 045: Protection of Children from Environmental Health Risks and
Safety Risks
Executive Order 13045, "Protection of Children from Environmental Health Risks and
Safety Risks" (62 FR 19885, April 23, 1997), applies to any rule that (1) is determined to be
"economically significant," as defined under Executive Order 12866, and (2) concerns an
environmental health or safety risk that EPA has reason to believe may have a disproportionate
effect on children. If the regulatory action meets both criteria, EPA must evaluate the
environmental health or safety effects of the planned rule on children and explain why the
planned regulation is preferable to other potentially effective and reasonably feasible alternatives
considered by the Agency.
This proposed rule is not subject to Executive Order 13045 (62 FR 19885, April 23,
1997) because the Agency does not believe the environmental health risks or safety risks
addressed by this action present a disproportionate risk to children. The report, Analysis of
Exposure to Residential Wood Combustion Emissions for Different Socio-Economic Groups,
shows that on a nationwide basis, cancer risks due to residential wood smoke emissions among
disadvantaged population groups generally are lower than the risks for the general population
due to residential wood smoke emissions. One of the demographic variables examined for this
report was that of children 18 years and younger.
This proposed rule is expected to reduce environmental impacts for everyone, including
children. This action proposes emissions limits at the levels based on the best system of
emissions reduction (BSER), as required by the Clean Air Act. Based on our analysis, we believe
that this proposed rule would not have a disproportionate impact on children.
'Morgenstern, R. D., W. A. Pizer, and J. S. Shih. 2002. "Jobs versus the Environment: An Industry-Level
Perspective." Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 43(3):412-436.
5-23
-------
The public is invited to submit comments or identify peer-reviewed studies and data that
assess effects of early-life exposure to smoke from residential wood heaters.
5.6.4 Executive Order 12898: Federal Actions to Address Environmental Justice in Minority
Populations and Low-Income Populations
Executive Order 12898 (59 FR 7629 (Feb. 16, 1994)) establishes federal executive policy
on environmental justice. Its main provision directs federal agencies, to the greatest extent
practicable and permitted by law, to make environmental justice part of their mission by
identifying and addressing, as appropriate, disproportionately high and adverse human health or
environmental effects of their programs, policies, and activities on minority populations and low-
income populations in the United States.
EPA has determined that this proposed rule would not have disproportionately high and
adverse human health or environmental effects on minority, low-income or indigenous
populations because it increases the level of environmental protection for all affected populations
without having any disproportionately high and adverse human health or environmental effects
on any population, including any minority, low-income or indigenous population. This proposed
rule would establish national standards that would reduce primarily PM emissions from new
residential wood heaters and, thus, would decrease the level of emissions to which all affected
populations are exposed. The EPA defines "Environmental Justice" to include meaning
involvement of all people regardless of race, color, national origin, or income with respect to the
development, implementation, and enforcement of environmental laws, regulations, and polices.
The EPA maintains an ongoing commitment to ensure environmental justice for all people,
regardless of race, color, national origin, or income. Ensuring environmental justice means not
only protecting human health and the environment for everyone, but also ensuring that all people
are treated fairly and are given the opportunity to participate meaningfully in the development,
implementation, and enforcement of environmental laws, regulations, and policies.
5.7 Employment Impacts
In addition to addressing the costs and benefits of the proposed rule, EPA has analyzed
the impacts of this rulemaking on employment, which are presented in this section. While a
standalone analysis of employment impacts is not included in a standard cost-benefit analysis,
such an analysis is of particular concern in the current economic climate of sustained high
unemployment. Executive Order 13563, states, "Our regulatory system must protect public
health, welfare, safety, and our environment while promoting economic growth, innovation,
5-24
-------
competitiveness, and job creation" (emphasis added). . A discussion of labor requirements
associated with the installation, operation, and maintenance of control requirements, as well as
reporting and recordkeeping requirements is included in Section 5.1.6, on compliance costs, of
this RIA. However, due to data and methodology limitations, we have not quantified the rule's
effects on labor, or the effects induced by changes in workers' incomes. What follows is an
overview of the various ways that environmental regulation can affect employment. EPA
continues to explore the relevant theoretical and empirical literature and to seek public comments
in order to ensure that the way EPA characterizes the employment effects of its regulations is
valid and informative.
This proposed regulation is expected to affect employment in the United States through
the regulated sector - residential wood heater manufacturers - and related sectors, specifically,
masonry contractors and residential construction (e.g. performing masonry and other on-site
fireplace construction), wholesalers and distributors, and retailers (e.g. home furnishing stores
that sell wood heaters), and suppliers of substitutes for residential wood-burning heaters (e.g.
electric or natural gas heaters). The production of devices like wood stoves, hydronic heaters,
and fireplace inserts is included under the heating equipment category (NAICS 333414). The
U.S. Census Bureau reports that, in 2011, the industry employed 15,925 workers (see Table 3 -1
in Section 3.1.3 of this RIA). Based on company data obtained for this profile, the residential
wood heaters industry has a large number of producers, and we were able to identify 635 firms,
employing approximately 17,000 workers annually. Previous analysis suggests that the industry
relies on seasonal labor, ramping up production in months leading up to winter and reducing
employment and production during the warmer parts of the year (AEI, 1986).
As described in Section 3.2.3 of this RIA, demand for residential wood heaters has been
declining steadily, as shown from 1989 to 2005, but has stabilized more recently. More
households rely on wood fuel as a supplemental heat source rather than as a primary source. In
2010, 2.1% of total occupied homes in the United States relied on wood heat as the primary fuel
source for home heating. About 10-12% of American households rely on wood when secondary
wood heat demand is counted, according to the U.S. Census Bureau and the Energy Information
Administration (EIA). Demand varies regionally, in part, due to availability of energy sources.
Current regional demand patterns are expected to continue, with the Northeast and Northwest
regions of the country driving wood fuel combustion demand, but analysts anticipate that the
wood heat product market will be embraced in other areas of the country in which wood and
biomass are viable and inexpensive fuel sources (Frost & Sullivan, 2010).
5-25
-------
The extent to which an increase in the price of residential wood heaters due to this rule
would reduce the sales depends on the elasticity of demand for residential wood heaters.
However, there are no recent empirical estimates of the price elasticity of demand for residential
wood heaters. An estimate of-1.6 was derived for use in the RIA for the current Residential
Wood CombustionNSPS (EPA, 1986). Available estimates for residential energy and heating
fuel demand generally are relatively inelastic (i.e., there are only very small changes in demand
in response to an increase in energy or fuel prices). A recent RAND report suggests that in the
short term, demand for electricity and natural gas in residential markets is relatively inelastic
(Bernstein and Griffin, 2005). There are a number of close substitutes for residential wood
heating devices that include electric and gas furnaces and space heaters. The extent to which
consumers are able to substitute between these options is likely to vary depending on geographic
location. Overall, the presence of good substitutes will increase the elasticity of demand for
wood heating equipment. In contrast, if locally-available alternative heating fuels (e.g.
electricity, fuel oil) are relatively higher-priced, it may make switching away from wood heating
equipment less likely and, ultimately, make demand for wood heating equipment inelastic. Also,
the elasticity may depend on whether the fuel in question is a secondary source of fuel instead of
a primary fuel source. Based on the available information, including the RAND report, we do not
expect sales of residential wood to fall substantially due to this rule, particularly in the near-term.
From an economic perspective labor is an input into producing goods and services; if a
regulation requires that more labor be used to produce a given amount of output, that additional
labor is reflected in an increase in the cost of production. Moreover, when the economy is at full
employment, we would not expect an environmental regulation to have an impact on overall
employment because labor is being shifted from one sector to another. On the other hand, in
periods of high unemployment, employment effects (both positive and negative) are possible.
For example, an increase in labor demand due to regulation may result in a short-term net
increase in overall employment as workers are hired by the regulated sector to help meet new
requirements (e.g., to install new equipment) or by the environmental protection sector to
produce new abatement capital resulting in hiring previously unemployed workers . When
significant numbers of workers are unemployed, the opportunity costs associated with displacing
jobs in other sectors are likely to be smaller. And, in general, if a regulation imposes high costs
and does not increase the demand for labor, it may lead to a decrease in employment. The
responsiveness of industry labor demand depends on how these forces all interact. Economic
theory indicates that the responsiveness of industry labor demand depends on a number of
factors: price elasticity of demand for the product, substitutability of other factors of production,
elasticity of supply of other factors of production, and labor's share of total production costs.
5-26
-------
Berman and Bui (2001) put this theory in the context of environmental regulation, and suggest
that, for example, if all firms in the industry are faced with the same compliance costs of
regulation and product demand is inelastic, then industry output may not change much at all.
Regulations set in motion new orders for pollution control equipment and services. New
categories of employment have been created in the process of implementing environmental
regulations. When a regulation is promulgated, one typical response of industry is to order
pollution control equipment and services in order to comply with the regulation when it becomes
effective. On the other hand, the closure of plants that choose not to comply - and any changes
in production levels at plants choosing to comply and remain in operation - occur after the
compliance date, or earlier in anticipation of the compliance obligation. Environmental
regulation may increase revenue and employment in the environmental technology industry.
While these increases represent gains for that industry, they translate into costs to the regulated
industries required to install the equipment.
Environmental regulations support employment in many basic industries. Regulated firms
either hire workers to design and build pollution controls directly or purchase pollution control
devices from a third party for installation. Once the equipment is installed, regulated firms hire
workers to operate and maintain the pollution control equipment—much like they hire workers
to produce more output In addition to the increase in employment in the environmental
protection industry (via increased orders for pollution control equipment), environmental
regulations also support employment in industries that provide intermediate goods to the
environmental protection industry. The equipment manufacturers, in turn, order steel, tanks,
vessels, blowers, pumps, and chemicals to manufacture and install the equipment. Currently in
most cases there is no scientifically defensible way to generate sufficiently reliable estimates of
the employment impacts in these intermediate goods sectors.
5.7.1 Employment Impacts within the Regulated Industry
It is sometimes claimed that new or more stringent environmental regulations raise
production costs thereby reducing production which in turn must lead to lower employment.
However, the peer-reviewed literature indicates that determining the direction of net employment
effects in a regulated industry is challenging due to competing effects. Environmental regulations
are assumed to raise production costs and thereby the cost of output, so we expect the "output"
effect of environmental regulation to be negative (higher prices lead to lower sales). On the other
5-27
-------
hand, complying with the new or more stringent regulation requires additional inputs, including
labor, and may alter the relative proportions of labor and capital used by regulated firms in their
production processes. Two sets of researchers discussed here, Berman and Bui (2001) and
Morgenstern, Pizer, and Shih (2002),56 demonstrate using standard neoclassical microeconomics
that environmental regulations have an ambiguous effect on employment in the regulated
sector.59 These theoretical results imply that the effect of environmental regulation on
employment in the regulated sector is an empirical question and both sets of authors tested their
models empirically using different methodologies. Both Berman and Bui and Morgenstern et al.
examine the effect of environmental regulations on employment and both find that overall they
had no significant net impact on employment in the sectors they examined.
Berman and Bui (2001) examine how an increase in local air quality regulation that
reduces NOx emissions affects manufacturing employment in the South Coast Air Quality
Management District (SCAQMD), which incorporates Los Angeles and its suburbs. During the
time frame of their study, 1979 to 1992, the SCAQMD enacted some of the country's most
stringent air quality regulations, which were more stringent than federal and state regulations.
Using SCAQMD's local air quality regulations, Berman and Bui identify the effect of
environmental regulations on net employment in the regulated industries.57'58 The authors find
that "while regulations do impose large costs, they have a limited effect on employment"
(Berman and Bui, 2001, p. 269). Their conclusion is that local air quality regulation "probably
increased labor demand slightly" but that "the employment effects of both compliance and
increased stringency are fairly precisely estimated zeros [emphasis added], even when exit and
dissuaded entry effects are included" (Berman and Bui, 2001, p. 269).59
Morgenstern et al. (2002) estimated the effects of pollution abatement expenditures on
net employment in four highly regulated sectors (pulp and paper, plastics, steel, and petroleum
refining). They conclude that increased abatement expenditures generally have not caused a
significant change in net employment in those sectors. While the specific sectors Morgenstern et
56 Berman, E. and L. T. M. Bui (2001). "Environmental Regulation and Labor Demand: Evidence from the South
Coast Air Basin." Journal of Public Economics 79(2): 265-295.
Morgenstern, R. D., W. A. Pizer, and J. S. Shih. 2002. Jobs versus the Environment: An Industry-Level
Perspective.|| Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 43(3):412-436.
57 Note, like Morgenstern, Pizer, and Shih (2002), this study does not estimate the number of jobs created in the
environmental protection sector.
58 Berman and Bui include over 40 4-digit SIC industries in their sample.
59 Including the employment effect of exiting plants and plants dissuaded from opening will increase the estimated
impact of regulation on employment.
5-28
-------
al. examined are different than the sectors considered here, the methodology that Morgenstern et
al. developed is still an informative way to qualitatively assess the effects of this rulemaking on
employment in the regulated sector.
While there is an extensive empirical, peer-reviewed literature analyzing the effect of
environmental regulations on various economic outcomes including productivity, investment,
competitiveness as well as environmental performance, there are only a few papers that examine
the impact of environmental regulation on employment, but this area of the literature has been
growing. As stated previously in this RIA section, empirical results from Berman and Bui (2001)
and Morgenstern et al (2002) suggest that new or more stringent environmental regulations do
not have a substantial impact on net employment (either negative or positive) in the regulated
sector. Nevertheless, other empirical research suggests that more highly regulated counties may
generate fewer jobs than less regulated ones (Greenstone 2002, Walker 2011). However, the
methodology used in these two studies cannot estimate whether aggregate employment is lower
or higher due to more stringent environmental regulation, it can only imply that relative
employment growth in some sectors differs between more and less regulated areas. List et al.
(2003) find some evidence that this type of geographic relocation, from more regulated areas to
less regulated areas may be occurring. Overall, the peer-reviewed literature does not contain
evidence that environmental regulation has a large impact on net employment (either negative or
positive) in the long run across the whole economy.
While the theoretical framework laid out by Berman and Bui (2001) and Morgenstern et
al. (2002) still holds for the industries affected under this proposed NSPS, important differences
in the markets and regulatory settings analyzed in their study and the setting presented here lead
us to conclude that it is inappropriate to utilize their quantitative estimates to estimate the
employment impacts from this proposed regulation. In particular, the industries used in these two
studies as well as the timeframe (late 1970's to early 1990's) are quite different than those in this
proposed rule. Furthermore, the control strategies analyzed for this RIA mostly include process
and design changes to reduce emissions during the production of affected heaters, and not after
these heaters are in operation.60 For instance, use of a catalyst combustor is common in wood
stoves in order to reduce emissions and also improve heat efficiency. Retrofits are uncommon
because replacing the wood stove is often a more economical alternative. On the other hand, the
pollution control strategies examined by Berman and Bui and Morgenstern et al. are primarily
60 More detail on how emission reductions expected from compliance with this rule can be obtained can be found in
Section 4 of this RIA.
5-29
-------
add-on or end-of-line pollution controls. For these reasons we conclude there are too many
uncertainties as to the transferability of the quantitative estimates in these two studies to apply
their estimates to quantify the employment impacts within the regulated sectors for this proposed
regulation.
Greenstone, M. (2002). "The Impacts of Environmental Regulations on Industrial Activity: Evidence
from the 1970 and 1977 Clean Air Act Amendments and the Census of Manufactures." Journal of
Political Economy 110(6): 1175-1219.
List, J. A., D. L. Millimet, P. G. Fredriksson, and W. W. McHone (2003). "Effects of Environmental
Regulations on Manufacturing Plant Births: Evidence from a Propensity Score Matching Estimator." The
Review of Economics and Statistics 55(4): 944-952.
Walker, Reed. (2011)."Environmental Regulation and Labor Reallocation." American Economic
Review: Papers and Proceedings, 101(2).
5-30
-------
SECTION 6
SMALL ENTITY SCREENING ANALYSIS
The Regulatory Flexibility Act as amended by the Small Business Regulatory
Enforcement Fairness Act (SBREFA) generally requires an agency to prepare a regulatory
flexibility analysis of any rule subject to notice and comment rulemaking requirements under the
Administrative Procedure Act or any other statute, unless the agency certifies that the rule will
not have a significant economic impact on a substantial number of small entities. Small entities
include small businesses, small governmental jurisdictions, and small not-for-profit enterprises.
After considering the economic impact of the proposed rule on small entities, the
screening analysis indicates that we cannot conclude that this proposed rule may not have a
significant economic impact on a substantial number of small entities (or "SISNOSE") for
certain residential wood heating products covered under the revised NSPS proposal. For this
analysis EPA considered sales and revenue tests for establishments owned by representative
small entities that manufacture or construct residential wood heating devices.
6.1 Small Entity Data Set
The industry sectors covered by the proposed rule were identified during the development
of the cost analysis (see Sections 3 and 5). The Statistics of U.S. Businesses (SUSB) provides
national information on the distribution of economic variables by industry and enterprise size
(U.S. Census, 2008a, 2008b). The Census Bureau and the Office of Advocacy of the Small
Business Administration (SB A) supported and developed these files for use in a broad range of
economic analyses.61 Statistics include the total number of establishments and receipts for all
entities in an industry; however, many of these entities may not necessarily be covered by the
final rule. SUSB also provides statistics by enterprise employment and receipt size.
The Census Bureau's definitions used in the SUSB are as follows:
• Establishment: An establishment is a single physical location where business is
conducted or where services or industrial operations are performed.
• Receipts: Receipts (net of taxes) are defined as the revenue for goods produced,
distributed, or services provided, including revenue earned from premiums,
commissions and fees, rents, interest, dividends, and royalties. Receipts exclude all
revenue collected for local, state, and federal taxes.
See http://www.census.gov/csd/susb/ and http://www.sba.gov/advo/research/data.html for additional details.
6-1
-------
• Enterprise: An enterprise is a business organization consisting of one or more
domestic establishments that were specified under common ownership or control. The
enterprise and the establishment are the same for single-establishment firms. Each
multi-establishment company forms one enterprise—the enterprise employment and
annual payroll are summed from the associated establishments. Enterprise size
designations are determined by the summed employment of all associated
establishments.
Because the SB A's business size definitions (SB A, 2013) apply to an establishment's
"ultimate parent company," we assumed in this analysis that the "enterprise" definition above is
consistent with the concept of ultimate parent company that is typically used for SBREFA
screening analyses and the terms are used interchangeably.
6.2 Small Entity Economic Impact Measures
The analysis generated a set of establishment sales tests (represented as cost-to-receipt
ratios) for NAICS codes associated with sectors listed in Table 6-1. Although the appropriate
SB A size definition should be applied at the parent company (enterprise) level, we can only
compute and compare ratios for a model establishment owned by an enterprise within an SUSB
size range (employment or receipts). Using the SUSB size range helps us account for receipt
differences between establishments owned by large and small enterprises and also allows us to
consider the variation in small business definitions across affected industries. Using
establishment receipts is also a somewhat conservative approach, because an establishment's
parent company (the "enterprise") may have other economic resources that could be used to
cover the costs of the final rule. It should be noted that these impacts are for the 2014-2022 time
frame; as mentioned earlier in this RIA, the annualized costs considered in this analysis reflect an
average of the proposal's compliance costs incurred by affected sources each year from
promulgation through 2022.
6.2.1 Establishment Employment and Receipts
The sales test compares a representative establishment's total annual compliance costs to
the average establishment receipts for enterprises in several size categories.62 For industries with
SBA employment size standards, we calculated average establishment receipts for each
enterprise employment range (Table 6-2). For industries with SBA receipt size standards, we
calculated average establishment receipts for each enterprise receipt range (Table 6-3). The
analysis assumes that the majority of affected entities are covered under hardware manufacturing
62 For the 1 to 20 employee category, we excluded SUSB data for enterprises with zero employees. These
enterprises did not operate the entire year.
6-2
-------
(NAICS 332510) and heating equipment manufacturing (NAICS 333414). We use establishment
data from the 2007 Economic Census because that data is the most recent release of public
establishment-lev el information for the industries impacted by this proposal.
Table 6-1. Revised NSPS Proposal for Residential Wood Heating Devices: Affected
Sectors and SBA Small Business Size Standards
Industry Description
New single-family general contractors
Masonry contractors
Hardware manufacturing
Heating equipment (except warm air)
manufacturing
Plumbing and heating equipment and
supplies (hydronics) merchant
wholesalers
All other home furnishing stores
Corresponding
NAICS
236115
238140
332510
333414
423720
442299
SBA Size Standard for Businesses
(July 22, 2013)
$33.5 million
in annual receipts
$14.0 million
in annual receipts
500 employees
500 employees
100 employees
$19.0 million
in annual receipts
Type of Small
Entity
Masonry
Masonry
All product
types
All product
types
All product
types
Business
However, the revised NSPS proposal has the potential to affect small entities classified as
new home construction and masonry contractors. In addition, wholesalers of imported residential
heating devices may also be affected if these establishments are required to certify imported
products.
6.2.2 Establishment Compliance Cost
Annual entity compliance costs vary depending on the product type manufactured and the
number of product models they would need to redesign under the revised NSPS proposal as
mentioned in Section 5 of this RIA. For this analysis compliance costs were estimated based on
the average development costs defined in the engineering cost analysis, presented in Section 5-1.
The analysis assumes that manufacturers have between two and seven model fireboxes that
would be subject to the new NSPS. There is limited information on the actual number of model
fireboxes associated with small businesses. Hence, for purposes of the small entity screening
analysis, we assumed that smaller companies maintain fewer than three firebox models that
would be subject to the revised NSPS. In the absence of better data, EPA believes that between
6-3
-------
one and three firebox models is a reasonable assumption for our analysis of impacts to
potentially affected small businesses.
6-4
-------
Table 6-2. Average Receipts for Affected Industry by Enterprise Employment Size: 2007 ($2010 million/establishment)
NAICS NAICS Description
SBA Size
Standard
for Businesses
(effective July
22, 2013)
Owned by Enterprises with Employment Ranges:
Fewer than 1,000 to
All 20 22 to 99 100 to 499 500 to 749 750 to 999 1,500 1,500+
Enterprises Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees
332510
333414
423720
Hardware
manufacturing
Heating equipment
manufacturing
Plumbing and heating
500
500
100
employees
employees
employees
$13.27
$13.78
$7.49
$1.33
$1.27
$2.58
$7.71
$11.17
$9.68
$26.26
$39.81
$10.79
$72.83
NA
$9.82
$62.18
NA
NA
$37.90
NA
NA
$62.27
$8.09
$0.14
equipment wholesalers
NA = Not available. SUSB did not report this data due to concern with disclosure of confidential information or other reasons. Escalation of average receipts
from 2007 to 2010 is accomplished by use of the annual GDP implicit price deflator (available at
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GDPDEF/downloaddata?cid=21'). The escalation ratio between 2007 and 2010 is 1.045.
Table 6-3. Average Receipts for Affected Industry by Enterprise Receipt Range: 2007 ($2010 million/establishment)
NAICS
NAICS
Description
SBA Size
Standard
for Businesses
(effective July
22, 2013)
Owned By Enterprises with Receipt Range:
Less than 100 to 500 to 1,000 to 5,000 to 10,000 to 50,000 to
All 100K 499K 999K 4,999K 9,999K 49,999K 99,999K 100,OOOK +
Enterprises Receipts Receipts Receipts Receipts Receipts Receipts Receipts Receipts
236115
238140
442299
New single-family
general contractors
Masonry
Contractors
All other home
$33.5 million in
annual receipts
$14.0 million in
annual receipts
$19.0 million in
$1.77
$1.08
$2.68
$0.05
$0.05
$0.05
$0.29
$0.27
$0.28
$0.77
$0.77
$0.78
$2.24
$2.232
$1.99
$7.907
$7.37
$6.14
$19.34
$18.64
NA
$59.14
$48.03
NA
$269.93
$59.26
$401.23
furnishing stores annual receipts
NA = Not available. SUSB did not report this data due to concern with disclosure of confidential information or other reasons. Escalation of average receipts
from 2007 to 2010 is accomplished by use of the annual GDP implicit price deflator (available at
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GDPDEF/downloaddata?cid=21'). The escalation ratio between 2007 and 2010 is 1.045.
-------
Then, we computed per-entity compliance costs for representative establishments and for
manufacturing each product type (see Table 6-4). For this analysis, the annualized costs as
presented in Table 6-4 assumed the total model development costs for four model fireboxes
spread over a 6-year model development time frame and scaled to a single model. Table 6-4
shows the estimated average annualized cost of $60,000 per model and its use in deriving the
national total compliance costs for the proposed option. Table 6-5 presents the same costs for the
alternative option. This cost was assumed to be constant for most product types. Lower
compliance cost for pellet stoves due to the fact that most existing models already comply with
the regulation. Lower bound on compliance cost for masonry heaters consists of a nominal
licensing fee ($200) for the use of computer simulation model software to certify the site built
units.
Table 6-4. Per-Entity Annualized Compliance Costs by Product Type—Proposed Option
($2010 millions)
Product Type
Wood stoves
Single burn rate stoves
Pellet stoves
Forced-air furnaces
Masonry heaters'3
Hydronic heating systems
National Compliance Cost
No.
Establishments
34
o
3
29
7
48
30
Assumed Affected
Models per
Establishment3
3
7
4
7
2-8
4
Annual
Compliance Cost
per Model Firebox
($ millions)
$0.04
$0.04
$0.03
$0.05
< $0.001 to $0.003
$0.04
Total Industry
Costs — Proposed
Option
($ millions)
$4.21
$0.90
$3.46
$2.25
$0.31
$4.55
$15.7
a Table totals may differ because of rounding.
b Masonry heater establishments include 2 large and 4 medium manufacturers, and 42 small custom builders.
For each case in this analysis, the number of models each representative establishment
must redesign to comply with the NSPS emission limits in the options analyzed in this RIA
varies by product type. The total annualized compliance cost per establishment is calculated by
multiplying the number of firebox models requiring redesign by the annualized cost per model
($63,850). Table 6-6 presents the assumed number of models per establishment by product type.
Figures 6-1 and 6-2 illustrate the distribution of compliances costs by product type.
6-6
-------
Table 6-5. Per-Entity Annualized Compliance Costs by Product Type—Alternative
Option ($2010 millions)
Product Type
Wood stoves
Single burn rate stoves
Pellet stoves
Forced-air furnaces
Masonry heatersb
Hydronic heating systems
National Compliance Cost
No.
Establishments
34
3
29
7
48
30
Assumed Affected
Models per
Establishment"
3
7
4
7
2-8
4
Annual
Compliance Cost
per Model Firebox
($ millions)
$0.08
$0.07
$0.05
$0.08
< $0.001 to $0.003
$0.08
Total Industry
Costs — Proposed
Option
($ millions)
$8.09
$1.54
$6.25
$3.81
$0.31
$8.30
$28.3
a Table totals may differ because of rounding.
b Masonry heater establishments include 2 large and 4 medium manufacturers, and 42 small custom builders.
Table 6-6. Representative Establishment Costs Used for Small Entity Analysis ($2010)
Best Estimate
Number of models requiring redesign
Annual cost per model
Average annual cost per establishment
2
$63,850
$127,700
For the sales test, we divided the representative establishment compliance costs reported
in Table 6-6 by the representative establishment receipts reported in Tables 6-2 and 6-3. This is
known as the cost-to-receipt (i.e., sales) ratio, or the "sales test." The "sales test" is the impact
methodology EPA employs in analyzing small entity impacts as opposed to a "profits test," in
which annualized compliance costs are calculated as a share of profits.
Information on annual revenues or sales is more commonly available data for entities
normally affected by EPA regulations, and profits data normally made available are often not the
true profit earned by firms because of accounting and tax considerations. Revenues as typically
published are usually correct figures and are more reliably reported when compared with profit
data. The use of a "sales test" for estimating small business impacts for a rulemaking such as this
6-7
-------
140
120
100
Q.
O
Q.
'£ so
a
-a
a
40
20
Wood Stoves Single Burn Rate Pellet Stoves
Stoves
Forced Air Masonry Heaters Hydronic Heating
Furnaces Systems
I Total Model Population • Average Models per Establishment
Figure 6-1. Population of Firebox Models and Average Models per Establishment by
Product Type
one is consistent with guidance offered by EPA on compliance with SBREFA63 and is consistent
with guidance published by the SB A's Office of Advocacy that suggests that cost as a percentage
of total revenues is a metric for evaluating cost increases on small entities in relation to increases
on large entities (SBA, 2003).64 The annualized cost per sales for a company represents the
maximum price increase in affected product needed for the company to completely recover the
annualized costs imposed by the regulation.
63 The SBREFA compliance guidance to EPA rule writers (EPA, 2006a) regarding the types of small business
analysis that should be considered can be found at http://www. epa. gov/sbrefa/documents/rfaguidance 11-00-
06.pdf. pp. 24-25.
64 This compliance guide produced by SB A can be found at
http://www.sba.gov/sites/default/files/rfaguide 0512 O.pdf.
-------
Wood Stoves
0%
Masonry Heaters
2%
Figure 6-2. Distribution of National Compliance Costs by Product Type in 2014 to 2022
For purposes of this analysis, EPA assumes most small entities in the residential wood
heating industry are likely to manufacture fewer than three distinctive firebox models and in
many cases they would support only one model. We assume for this analysis that most small
entities in this industry will manufacture an average of two distinctive firebox models. Hence,
EPA believes that the estimate in Table 6-6 above is the most representative establishment costs
to assess impacts on small businesses. If the cost-to-receipt ratio is less than 1%, then we
consider the rule to not have a significant impact on the establishment (and, company) in
question. Table 6-7 presents the cost-to-receipt ratios for each category of establishments
(establishments with ratios that exceed 1% under each case are highlighted) for the proposal
option. Table 6-8 present these ratios for the alternative option.
6-9
-------
Table 6-7. Cost-to-Receipt Ratio Results for the Proposal Option by NAICS Code"
NAICS
332510
333414
423720
NAICS
236115
238140
442299
Description
Hardware manufacturing
Heating equipment manufacturing
Plumbing and heating equipment
wholesalers
Description
New single-family general contractors
Masonry contractors
All other home furnishing stores
All Fewer than 20 22 to 99
Establishments Employees Employees
3.12%
1.89%
3.50%
Total
7.18%
11.59%
7.86%
19.74%
20.73%
10.15%
Less than
100K
Receipts
231.81%
232.50%
224.82%
100 to
499K
Receipts
43.78%
47.70%
46.00%
3.40%
2.34%
2.71%
500 to
999K
Receipts
16.39%
16.54%
17.02%
100 to 499
Employees
0.99%
0.67%
2.43%
1,000 to
4,999K
Receipts
5.62%
5.43%
7.47%
5,000 to
9,999K
Receipts
1.78%
1.72%
3.84%
10,000 to
49,999K
Receipts
0.69%
0.74%
All the cost to receipts results incorporate costs that are primarily R&D activities that firms will engage in to build appliance models that comply with the
options analyzed in this RIA. The R&D cycle is estimated at 6 years, while the appliance life for all affected categories is 20 years.
-------
Table 6-8. Cost-to-Receipt Ratio Results for the Alternative Option by NAICS Code"
NAICS
332510
333414
423720
NAICS
236115
238140
442299
Description
Hardware manufacturing
Heating equipment manufacturing
Plumbing and heating equipment
wholesalers
Description
New single-family general contractors
Masonry contractors
All other home furnishing stores
All Fewer than 20 22 to 99
Establishments Employees Employees
5.22%
3.17%
5.87%
Total
12.03%
19.47%
13.20%
33.05%
34.70%
17.00%
Less than
100K
Receipts
389.44%
390.60%
377.70%
100 to
499K
Receipts
73.55%
80.14%
77.28%
5.69%
3.92%
4.54%
500 to
999K
Receipts
27.54%
27.79%
27.23%
100 to 499
Employees
1.66%
1.12%
4.07%
1,000 to
4,999K
Receipts
9.44%
9.12%
13.00%
5,000 to
9,999K
Receipts
2.99%
2.89%
6.45%
10,000 to
49,999K
Receipts
1.16%
1.24%
All the cost to receipts results incorporate costs that are primarily R&D activities that firms will engage in to build appliance models that comply with the
options analyzed in this RIA. The R&D cycle is estimated at 6 years, while the appliance life for all affected categories is 20 years.
-------
6.2.2.1 Analysis Results
In our small entity analysis for the proposed option, using an annual compliance cost of
$127,000 as the estimated cost borne by affected small entities, establishments in NAICS
332510, 333414, and 423720 with fewer than 500 employees have cost-to-receipt ratios higher
than 1%. Establishments in NAICS 236115, 238140, and 442299 with receipts less than $10
million have cost-to-receipt ratios higher than 1%. For the alternative option, the impacts are
higher than 1% for all establishments in any size class.
After considering the economic impacts of this proposed rule on small entities, we cannot
certify that this action will not have a significant economic impact on a substantial number of
small entities. This certification is based on the economic impact of this action to all affected
small entities across all industries affected. Using the estimate of impacts presented earlier in this
chapter, we estimate that all small entities will have annualized costs of greater than 1% of their
sales in all industries with fewer than 20 employees and NAICS 236115, 238140, and 442299
with receipts less than $10 million. Those establishments in NAICS 332510, 333414, and
423720 with cost-to-receipt ratios higher than 1% account for more than 80% of small entities.
Establishments in NAICS 236115, 238140, and 442299 with cost-to-receipt ratios higher than
1% account for more than 99% of small entities. Small entity impacts are higher than this for the
alternative option. We thus conclude that we cannot certify that there is not a significant
economic impact on a substantial number of small entities (SISNOSE) for this rule.
It should be noted that the cost to receipts analysis included in this RIA reflect the large
majority of annualized costs that are composed of research and development (R&D) activities
(nearly 90%, based on the manufacturers' cost memorandum) that have a shorter life than the
total life of affected appliances—six years for an R&D cycle as mentioned in section 5 of this
RIA compared to 20 years for the life of affected appliances. The impacts on small entities
should be understood in the context that a large share of the estimated annualized costs reflect
expenses in the early years of the appliance life, and only a small share recurs each year over the
entire appliance life of 20 years. In addition, the application of these costs for the options
analyzed in this RIA will lead to a somewhat conservative (or, over-stated) cost estimate as
stated previously in section 5.1.3. One example of this is that all hydronic heaters will undergo
R&D beginning in 2013 to comply with either option analyzed; there is a small percentage of
hydronic heaters that already meet the emission limits under each option considered in the RIA.
Similar assumptions are also made in the cost estimates for single burn rate stoves and forced air
furnaces. Given these two considerations, the costs that are included in the cost to sales analyses
6-12
-------
presented in this RIA are somewhat conservative in nature, and the cost to receipts impacts
shown above should be understood in that context.
A sensitivity analysis showing the effect of the R&D cycle lifespan on the cost to sales
estimates for each option is below. Table 6-9 shows how the model firebox costs that are input
to the cost to sales (and small business) analyses will change with changes to the R&D cycle
lifespan.
Table 6-9. Total Annual Cost (TAC) per Appliance Model - for Varying
Annualized R&D Cycle Lifespans
Annualized R&D
Cycle Lifespan
(Years)
6*
10
20
TAC/Appliance Model (2010$)
$63,850
40,022
22,418
TAC per Establishment
$127,700
80,044
44,836
*As mentioned in Section 5 of this RIA, six years represents the annualized R&D cycle lifespan
incorporated in the cost estimates for the Proposed RWH NSPS rule options.
The total annual cost per appliance model is the value of costs included in the cost to
sales estimates to calculate these values. Each small entity is expected to modify 2 appliance
models on average in order to comply with the proposal, an assumption we estimated earlier in
this section of the RIA. We assume each small entity owns only one establishment (or place of
business). Hence, the total annual cost to each small entity is twice the cost per appliance model.
The annual cost to sales in the RIA will change proportionately to a change in the TAC since the
sales estimates in the analysis will remain constant.
As shown in Table 6-9, with an increase in the R&D cycle lifespan from 6 to 10 years,
the TAC/appliance model estimate falls to $40,022 from $63,850. The new TAC/appliance
model estimate is 37% less than before. Thus, the cost to sales estimates will fall by 37% from
the previous values. Finally, if the R&D cycle lifespan is reduced to 4 years, the TAC/appliance
model estimate increases to $93,755 from $63,850. The new TAC/appliance model estimate is
now 65% lower than before. Thus, the cost to sales estimates will decrease by 65% from the
values that use an R&D cycle lifespan of 6 years.
Table 6-10 contains estimates of the changes in the cost to sales estimates for the
Proposed option with an increase in the R&D cycle lifespan to 10 and 20 years from 6 years. The
6-13
-------
estimates with the change in R&D cycle lifespan to 10 and 20 years are in parentheses; the other
values are those for the Proposed option.
Table 6-10. Cost-to-Sales Ratio Sensitivity Analysis Results Reflecting Different
R&D Cycle Lifespans for the Proposed Option by NAICS Code*
NAICS
332510
333414
423720
Industry
Description
Hardware
manufacturing
Heating
equipment
manufacturing
Plumbing and
heating
equipment
wholesalers
All
Establishments
3.12(1.97, 1.09)
1.89(1.19,0.66)
3.50(2.21, 1.23)
Establishments
with Fewer than
20 Employees (%)
19.74(12.44,6.91)
20.73 (12.83, 7.26)
10.15(6.39,3.55)
Establishments
with Between 20
and 99
Employees (%)
3.40(2.14, 1.19)
2.34(1.47, 0.82)
2.71(1.71,0.95)
Establishments
with Between
100 and 499
Employees (%)
0.99 (0.62, 0.35)
0.67 (0.42, 0.23)
2.43 (1.53,0.85)
* The first value in parentheses is the cost to sales estimate for a 10 year R&D cycle lifespan; the
second value is the cost to sales estimates for a 20 year R&D cycle lifespan.
6.3 Initial Regulatory Flexibility Analysis
An IRFA illustrates how EPA considers the proposed rule's small entity effects before a
rule is finalized and provides information about how the objectives of the rule were achieved
while minimizing significant economic impacts on small entities. We provide a summary of
IRFA elements; the preamble for this rule provides additional details.
6.3.1 Reasons Why Action Is Being Considered
These proposals were developed following a Clean Air Act (CAA) section 11 l(b)(l)(B)
periodic review of the existing residential wood heater new source performance standards
(NSPS).
6.3.2 Statement of Objectives and Legal Basis of Proposed Rule
The EPA is proposing to amend Standards of Performance for New Residential Wood
Heaters, and to add two new subparts: Standards of Performance for New Residential Hydronic
Heaters and Forced-Air Furnaces and Standards of Performance for New Residential Masonry
Heaters. These proposals are aimed at achieving several objectives, including applying tighter
emission limits that reflect today's best systems of emission reduction (BSER); eliminating
6-14
-------
exemptions over a broad suite of residential wood combustion devices; revising test methods as
appropriate; and streamlining the certification process. These proposals do not include any
requirements on heaters that are solely fired by gas or oil. In addition, theses proposals do not
include any requirements associated with wood heaters or other wood-burning appliances that
are already in use. The EPA continues to encourage state, local, tribal, and consumer efforts to
change out (replace) older heaters with newer, cleaner, more efficient heaters, but that is not part
of this Federal rulemaking.
These proposals were developed following a Clean Air Act (CAA) section 11 l(b)(l)(B)
periodic review of the existing residential wood heater new source performance standards
(NSPS). The current body of evidence justifies that revision of the current residential wood
heaters NSPS is needed to capture the improvements in performance of such units and to expand
the applicability of this NSPS to include additional wood-burning residential heating devices.
The changes being proposed with this action are aimed at achieving several objectives, including
applying tighter emission limits that reflect today' s best systems of emission reduction;
eliminating exemptions over a broad suite of residential wood combustion devices; revising test
methods as appropriate; and streamlining the certification process.
6.3.3 Description and Estimate of the Number of Small Entities
Small entities that EPA anticipates being affected by the standards would include almost
all manufacturers of wood heaters listed in Section 2.2 of this document. EPA estimates that
roughly 250-300 U.S. companies manufacture residential wood heaters. EPA believes that
approximately 90% of these manufacturers meet the SB A small-entity definition of having fewer
than 500 employees.
6.3.4 Description and Compliance Costs
A discussion of the methodology used to estimate cost impacts is presented in Section 5
ofthisRIA
As required by section 609(b) of the RFA, as amended by SBREFA, EPA has conducted
outreach to small entities and convened a SB AR Panel to obtain advice and recommendation of
representatives of the small entities potentially subject to the requirements of this rule. On
August 4, 2010, EPA's Small Business Advocacy Chairperson convened a Panel under section
609(b) of the RFA. In addition to the Chair, the Panel consisted of representatives of the Director
of the Outreach and Information Division within EPA's Office of Air and Radiation, the Chief
Counsel for Advocacy of the SB A, and the Administrator of the Office of Information and
Regulatory Affairs within the Office of Management and Budget.
6-15
-------
Based on consultations with the SB A, and resulting from solicited self-nominations, we
prepared a list of 30 potential small entity representatives (SERs), from residential wood heating
appliance manufacturers (wood stoves, pellet stoves, hydronic heaters, forced-air furnaces, and
masonry heaters), other wood burning appliance manufacturers (fireplaces, cook stoves),
equipment suppliers, chimney sweeps, test laboratories, masons, and trade associations. Once the
pre-Panel process began and potential SERs were identified, EPA held an outreach meeting with
the potential SERs and invited representatives from SBA's Office of Advocacy and the Office of
Information and Regulatory Affairs within the Office of Management and Budget on June 29,
2010, to solicit their feedback on the upcoming proposed rulemaking. Representatives from 26 of
the 30 companies and organizations that we selected as potential SERs for this SBREFA process
participated in the meeting (in person and by phone). At that meeting EPA solicited written
comments from the potential SERs, which were later summarized and shared with the Panel as
part of the Panel convening document.
After the SB AR Panel was convened, the Panel distributed additional information to the
SERs on August 11 and August 19, 2010, for their review and comment and in preparation for
another outreach meeting. On August 25, 2010, the Panel met with the SERs to hear their
comments on the information distributed via email. The Panel received written comments from
the SERs in response to the discussions at this meeting and the outreach materials. The Panel
asked the SERs to evaluate how they would be affected and to provide advice and
recommendations regarding early ideas to provide flexibility.
Many of the SERs and the Panel had concerns about the breadth of the potential options
discussed for this rulemaking and the challenges EPA would face in potentially conducting
rulemaking for all of these source categories at one time and the challenges that the small
businesses would face in having to potentially comply with standards for all of these source
categories at one time. The Panel recommended that EPA should consider focusing efforts first
on emissions sources that have the greatest potential to impact public health through the
magnitude of emissions and population exposure. The EPA has narrowed the scope of this
proposal to focus on the sources with the greatest potential impacts on public health. The Panel
was sensitive to the need to carefully develop a rule that will minimize business closures, while
still achieving significant emission reductions.
6-16
-------
6.3.5 Panel Recommendations for Small Business Flexibilities
The Panel recommended that EPA consider and seek comment on an extensive range of
regulatory alternatives to mitigate the impacts of the rulemaking on small businesses, including
the options listed below. The following section summarizes the SB AR Panel recommendations.
Consistent with the RFA/SBREFA requirements, the Panel evaluated the assembled
materials and comments related to elements of the IRFA. A copy of the Final Panel Report
(including all comments received from SERs in response to the Panel's outreach meetings), as
well as summaries of both outreach meetings that were held with the SERs, is included in the
docket for the proposed rules. The following paragraphs are a subset of the full report.
The Panel encouraged EPA to consider flexibilities that will most directly minimize the
small business burdens: Exemptions from the standards based on very low volume production,
and delayed compliance dates for low volume production. The delayed compliance approach is
predicated on the concept that it will take a number of years for manufacturers to recover the
costs of the R&D investment in order to achieve compliance.
The Panel recommended that the EPA Administrator should consider the availability and
feasibility of certification, testing labs, testing standards, and other requirements.
The Panel recommended that the EPA Administrator should consider emphasizing that
theNSPS will address only new units, and the EPA Administrator should consider clarifying
whether exemptions will be considered for historic replica equipment and historic property
renovations.
EPA is looking at opportunities for reducing the burden on small entities of potential
reporting, record keeping, and compliance requirements. For reporting and record keeping
requirements in the revised NSPS, EPA is considering providing flexibilities similar to those in
the 1988 NSPS. For example, the Panel recommended that EPA continue allowing
manufacturers to keep records and report test results for a representative model appliance rather
than testing and reporting results for each individual unit.
Many SERs expressed concern about potential compliance requirements associated with
the planned proposed standards. Specifically, SERs anticipated potential logjams at third-party
testing facilities as a result of EPA's regulating a broader range of product categories, which the
SERs believe will slow down the certification process. In addition, many SERs are concerned
about the costs associated with compliance requirements, including research and development,
6-17
-------
preliminary testing and certification of new products and recertification of products approved
under the 1988 NSPS. The Panel recommended that EPA consider ways to streamline
compliance certification, in particular, identifying flexible approaches and procedures that will
reduce the burden and time for manufacturers to complete the application, testing and approval
process for new model lines. For example, the Panel recommended that EPA consider allowing
the use of International Standards Organization (ISO)-accredited laboratories and certifying
bodies to expand the number of facilities that would be required for testing and certification of
the new residential solid biomass combustion appliances. Additionally, the Panel recommended
that EPA consider different compliance time frames for different product categories to reduce the
potential for logjams at test labs and the overall impact on companies that manufacture multiple
categories. Flexible compliance schedules would also help manufacturers of additional new
appliances, such as hydronic heaters and forced-air furnaces, which were not subject to the 1988
standards.
Consistent with the RFA/SBREFA requirements, the Panel evaluated the assembled
materials and small-entity comments on issues related to elements of the IRFA. A copy of the
Panel report is included in the docket for this proposed rule. We invite comments on all aspects
of the proposal and its impacts on small entities.
6-18
-------
SECTION 7
HUMAN HEALTH BENEFITS OF EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS
7.1 Synopsis
Implementation of emissions limits required by the proposed residential wood heaters
NSPS is expected to reduce direct emissions of PM2.5. These reductions result from the
imposition of tightened and new PM emissions limits for a number of emissions categories as
described in Section 2 of this RIA. In this section, we quantify the monetized benefits for this
rule associated with reduced exposure to ambient fine particulate matter (PM2 5) resulting from
the reduction of direct emissions ofPM2.5. The total PM2.5 reductions are the consequence of the
expected design changes to the affected appliances needed in order to meet the limits in the
options analyzed in this RIA. We estimate the total monetized benefits for the proposed option to
be $1.8 billion to $4.2 billion at a 3% discount rate and $1.7 billion to $3.8 billion at a 7%
discount rate on a yearly average between 2014 and 2022. For the alternative option and same
time frame, we estimate that the total monetized benefits are $1.9 billion to $4.2 billion at a 3%
discount rate and $1.7 billion to $3.8 billion at a 7% discount rate. All estimates are in 2010$.
These estimates reflect the monetized human health benefits of reducing cases of morbidity and
premature mortality among populations exposed to PM2 5 reduced by this rule.
Data, resources, and methodological limitations prevented EPA from monetizing the
benefits from several important benefit categories. Included among the nonmonetized benefits
are those associated with reduced exposure to about 3,200 tons of VOCs. VOCs are also
precursors to ozone formation and therefore reducing health impact due to ozone exposure.
Further, this rule would reduce each year 33,000 tons of CO, black carbon emissions, several
HAP emissions such as benzene, formaldehyde, and dioxin. This rule will also reduce ecosystem
effects, and visibility impairment due to PM emissions.
7.2 PM2.5-Related Human Health Benefits
This rule is expected to reduce direct emissions of PM and emissions of VOCs, which are
precursors to formation of ambient PM2 5. Therefore, reducing these emissions would also reduce
human exposure to ambient PM2.5 and the incidence of PM2.5-related health effects. In this
section, we provide an overview of the PM2.s-related benefits. A full description of the
underlying data, studies, and assumptions is provided in the PMNAAQS RIA (U.S. EPA,
2012a).
In implementing this rule, emission controls may lead to reductions in ambient PM2 5
concentrations below the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for PM in some
7-1
-------
areas and assist other areas with attaining the PM NAAQS. Because the PM NAAQS RIA (U.S.
EPA, 2012a) also calculated PM benefits, there are important differences worth noting in the
design and analytical objectives of each RIA. The NAAQS RIAs illustrate the potential costs and
benefits of attaining a revised air quality standard nationwide based on an array of emission
reduction strategies for different sources including known and unknown controls, incremental to
implementation of existing regulations and controls needed to attain the current standards. In
short, NAAQS RIAs hypothesize, but do not predict, the reduction strategies that States may
choose to enact when implementing a revised NAAQS. The setting of a NAAQS does not
directly result in costs or benefits, and as such, the NAAQS RIAs are merely illustrative and the
estimated costs and benefits are not intended to be added to the costs and benefits of other
regulations that result in specific costs of control and emission reductions. However, it is
possible that some costs and benefits associated with the required emission controls estimated in
this RIA may account for the same air quality improvements as estimated in the illustrative PM
NAAQS RIA.
By contrast, the emission reductions for implementation rules such as this rulemaking are
generally for specific, well-characterized sources. In general, EPA is more confident in the
magnitude and location of the emission reductions for implementation rules. As such, emission
reductions achieved under these and other promulgated implementation rules will ultimately be
reflected in the baseline of future NAAQS analyses, which would reduce the incremental costs
and benefits associated with attaining revised future NAAQS. EPA remains forward looking
towards the next iteration of the 5-year review cycle for the NAAQS. As a result, EPA does not
re-issue NAAQS RIAs that retroactively update the baseline to account for implementation rules
promulgated after a NAAQS RIA outside of the NAAQS review process. For more information
on the relationship between the NAAQS and rules that are not ambient standards, such as
analyzed here, please see Section 1.3 of the PM NAAQS RIA (U.S. EPA, 2012a).
7.2.1 Health Impact Assessment
The Integrated Science Assessmentfor Paniculate Matter (PM ISA) (U.S. EPA, 2009)
identified the human health effects associated with ambient PM2.5, which include premature
mortality and a variety of morbidity effects associated with acute and chronic exposures. Table
7-1 provides the quantified and unquantified benefits captured in EPA's benefits estimates for
reduced exposure to ambient PM2.5. Although the table below does not include entries for the
unquantified health effects such as exposure to ozone and NO2 nor welfare effects such as
ecosystem effects and visibility impairment, these effects are itemized in Chapters 5 and 6 of the
7-2
-------
Table 7-1. Human Health Effects of Ambient PM2.5
Category
Specific Effect
Effect Has Effect Has
Been Been
Quantified Monetized
More
Information
inPM
NAAQSRIA
Improved Human Health
Reduced incidence of
premature mortality
from exposure to PM25
Adult premature mortality based on cohort
study estimates and expert elicitation
estimates (age >25 or age >30)
Infant mortality (age <1)
Section 5.6
Section 5.6
Reduced incidence of
morbidity from
exposure to PM25
Non-fatal heart attacks (age > 18)
Hospital admissions—respiratory (all ages)
Hospital admissions—cardiovascular (age
>20)
Emergency room visits for asthma (all
ages)
Acute bronchitis (age 8-12)
Lower respiratory symptoms (age 7-14)
Upper respiratory symptoms (asthmatics
age 9-11)
Asthma exacerbation (asthmatics age 6-18)
Lost work days (age 18-65)
Minor restricted-activity days (age 18-65)
Chronic Bronchitis (age >26)
Emergency room visits for cardiovascular
effects (all ages)
Strokes and cerebrovascular disease (age
50-79)
Other cardiovascular effects (e.g., other
ages)
Other respiratory effects (e.g., pulmonary
function, non-asthma ER visits, non-
bronchitis chronic diseases, other ages and
populations)
Reproductive and developmental effects
(e.g., low birth weight, pre-term births,
etc.)
Cancer, mutagenicity, and genotoxicity
effects
•/
•/
•/
•/
•/
•/
•/
•/
•/
Section 5.6
Section 5.6
Section 5.6
Section 5.6
Section 5.6
Section 5.6
Section 5.6
Section 5.6
Section 5.6
Section 5.6
Section 5.6
Section 5.6
Section 5.6
PM ISAb
PM ISAb
— PM ISA
b,c
— PM ISA
b,c
3 We assess these benefits qualitatively due to time and resource limitations for this analysis, hi the PM NAAQS
RIA, these benefits were quantified in a sensitivity analysis, but not in the core analysis.
b We assess these benefits qualitatively because we do not have sufficient confidence in available data or methods.
0 We assess these benefits qualitatively because current evidence is only suggestive of causality or there are other
significant concerns over the strength of the association.
7-3
-------
PM NAAQS RIA (U.S. EPA, 2012a). It is important to emphasize that the list of unquantified
benefit categories is not exhaustive, nor is quantification of each effect complete.
We follow a "damage-function" approach in calculating benefits, which estimates
changes in individual health endpoints (specific effects that can be associated with changes in air
quality) and assigns values to those changes assuming independence of the values for those
individual endpoints. Because EPA rarely has the time or resources to perform new research to
measure directly either the health outcomes or their values for regulatory analyses, our estimates
are based on the best available methods of benefits transfer, which is the science and art of
adapting primary research from similar contexts to estimate benefits for the environmental
quality change under analysis.
The health impact assessment (HIA) quantifies the changes in the incidence of adverse
health impacts resulting from changes in human exposure to PM2.5 or other air pollutants. We use
the environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP) to systematize health
impact analyses by applying a database of key input parameters, including population
projections, health impact functions, valuation functions (Abt Associates, 2012). For this
assessment, the HIA is limited to those health effects that are directly linked to ambient PM2.5
concentrations. There may be other indirect health impacts associated with implementing
emissions controls, such as occupational health exposures. Epidemiological studies generally
provide estimates of the relative risks of a particular health effect for a given increment of air
pollution (often per 10 |ig/m3 for PM^.s). These relative risks can be used to develop risk
coefficients that relate a unit reduction in PM2.5 to changes in the incidence of a health effect. We
refer the reader to section 5.6 of the PM NAAQS RIA for more information regarding the
epidemiology studies and risk coefficients applied in this analysis (U.S. EPA, 2012a), and we
briefly elaborate on adult premature mortality below. The size of the mortality effect estimates
from epidemiological studies, the serious nature of the effect itself, and the high monetary value
ascribed to prolonging life make mortality risk reduction the most significant health endpoint
quantified in this analysis.
Considering a substantial body of published scientific literature, reflecting thousands of
epidemiology, toxicology, and clinical studies, the PM ISA documents the association between
elevated PM2.5 concentrations and adverse health effects, including increased premature
mortality (U.S. EPA, 2009). The PM ISA, which was twice reviewed by the Clean Air Scientific
Advisory Committee of EPA's Science Advisory Board (SAB-CASAC) (U.S. EPA-SAB, 2009b,
2009c), concluded that there is a causal relationship between mortality and both long-term and
short-term exposure to PM2.5 based on the entire body of scientific evidence. The PM ISA also
7-4
-------
concluded that the scientific literature consistently finds that a no-threshold log-linear model
most adequately portrays the PM-mortality concentration-response relationship while
recognizing potential uncertainty about the exact shape of the concentration-response function.
For mortality, we use the effect coefficients from the most recent epidemiology studies
examining two large population cohorts: the American Cancer Society (ACS) cohort (Krewski et
al., 2009) and the Harvard Six Cities cohort (Lepeule et al., 2012). The PM ISA (U.S. EPA,
2009) concluded that the ACS and Six Cities cohorts provide the strongest evidence of the
association between long-term PM2.5 exposure and premature mortality with support from a
number of additional cohort studies. The SAB's Health Effects Subcommittee (SAB-HES) also
supported using these two cohorts for analyses of the benefits of PM reductions (U.S. EPA-SAB,
2010a). As both the ACS and Six Cities cohort studies have inherent strengths and weaknesses,
we present benefits estimates using relative risk estimates from both these cohorts (Krewski et
al., 2009; Lepeule et al., 2012).
As a characterization of uncertainty regarding the PM2.5 -mortality relationship, EPA
graphically presents benefits derived from EPA's expert elicitation study (Roman et al., 2008;
lEc, 2006). The primary goal of the 2006 study was to elicit from a sample of health experts
probabilistic distributions describing uncertainty in estimates of the reduction in mortality among
the adult U.S. population resulting from reductions in ambient annual average PM2.5 levels. In
that study, twelve experts provided independent opinions of the PM2.5 -mortality concentration-
response function. Because the experts relied upon the ACS and Six Cities cohort studies to
inform their concentration-response functions, the benefits estimates derived from the expert
responses generally fall between results derived from the these studies (see Figure 7-1). We do
not combine the expert results in order to preserve the breadth and diversity of opinion on the
expert panel. This presentation of the expert-derived results is generally consistent with SAB
advice (U.S. EPA-SAB, 2008), which recommended that the EPA emphasize that "scientific
differences existed only with respect to the magnitude of the effect of PM2.5 on mortality, not
whether such an effect existed" and that the expert eli citation "supports the conclusion that the
benefits of PM2.5 control are very likely to be substantial." Although it is possible that newer
scientific literature could revise the experts' quantitative responses if elicited again, we believe
that these general conclusions are unlikely to change.
7.2.2 Economic Valuation
After quantifying the change in adverse health impacts, we estimate the economic value
of these avoided impacts. Reductions in ambient concentrations of air pollution generally lower
7-5
-------
the risk of future adverse health effects by a small amount for a large population. Therefore, the
appropriate economic measure is willingness to pay (WTP) for changes in risk of a health effect.
For some health effects, such as hospital admissions, WTP estimates are generally not available,
so we use the cost of treating or mitigating the effect. These cost-of-illness (COI) estimates
generally (although not necessarily in every case) understate the true value of reductions in risk
of a health effect. They tend to reflect the direct expenditures related to treatment but not the
value of avoided pain and suffering from the health effect. The unit values applied in this
analysis are provided in Table 5-9 of the PM NAAQS RIA for each health endpoint (U.S. EPA,
2012a).
Avoided premature deaths account for 98% of monetized PM-related benefits. The
economics literature concerning the appropriate method for valuing reductions in premature
mortality risk is still developing. The adoption of a value for the projected reduction in the risk of
premature mortality is the subject of continuing discussion within the economics and public
policy analysis community. Following the advice of the SAB's Environmental Economics
Advisory Committee (SAB-EEAC), the EPA currently uses the value of statistical life (VSL)
approach in calculating estimates of mortality benefits, because we believe this calculation
provides the most reasonable single estimate of an individual's willingness to trade off money
for reductions in mortality risk (U.S. EPA-SAB, 2000). The VSL approach is a summary
measure for the value of small changes in mortality risk experienced by a large number of
people.
EPA continues work to update its guidance on valuing mortality risk reductions, and the
Agency consulted several times with the SAB-EEAC on the issue. Until updated guidance is
available, the Agency determined that a single, peer-reviewed estimate applied consistently best
reflects the SAB-EEAC advice it has received. Therefore, EPA has decided to apply the VSL
that was vetted and endorsed by the SAB in the Guidelines for Preparing Economic Analyses
(U.S. EPA, 2000)65 while the Agency continues its efforts to update its guidance on this issue.
This approach calculates a mean value across VSL estimates derived from 26 labor market and
contingent valuation studies published between 1974 and 1991. The mean VSL across these
studies is $6.3 million (2000$).66
65 In the updated Guidelines for Preparing Economic Analyses (U.S. EPA, 2010e), EPA retained the VSL endorsed
by the SAB with the understanding that further updates to the mortality risk valuation guidance would be
forthcoming in the near future.
66 In 1990$, this VSL is $4.8 million.
7-6
-------
We then adjust this VSL to account for the currency year used in this RIA and to account
for income growth from 1990 to the analysis year. The adjusted value for VSL is $8.0 million
($2010).
The Agency is committed to using scientifically sound, appropriately reviewed evidence
in valuing mortality risk reductions and has made significant progress in responding to the SAB-
EEAC's specific recommendations. In the process, the Agency has identified a number of
important issues to be considered in updating its mortality risk valuation estimates. These are
detailed in a white paper on "Valuing Mortality Risk Reductions in Environmental Policy," (U.S.
EPA, 2010c) which recently underwent review by the SAB-EEAC. A meeting with the SAB on
this paper was held on March 14, 2011 and formal recommendations were transmitted on
July 29, 2011 (U.S. EPA-SAB, 2011). Draft guidance responding to SAB recommendations will
be developed shortly.
In valuing premature mortality, we discount the value of premature mortality occurring in
future years using rates of 3% and 7% (OMB, 2003). We assume that there is a "cessation" lag
between changes in PM exposures and the total realization of changes in health effects. Although
the structure of the lag is uncertain, the EPA follows the advice of the SAB-HES to assume a
segmented lag structure characterized by 30% of mortality reductions in the first year, 50% over
years 2 to 5, and 20% over the years 6 to 20 after the reduction in PM2.5 (U.S. EPA-SAB, 2004c).
Changes in the cessation lag assumptions do not change the total number of estimated deaths but
rather the timing of those deaths.
7.2.3 Benefit-per-ton Estimates
Due to analytical limitations, it was not possible to conduct air quality modeling for this
rule. Instead, we used a "benefit-per-ton" approach to estimate the benefits of this rulemaking.
EPA has applied this approach in several previous RIAs (e.g., U.S. EPA, 201 Ib, 201 Id, 2012b).
These benefit-per-ton estimates provide the total monetized human health benefits (the sum of
premature mortality and premature morbidity) of reducing one ton of PM2.5 (or PM2.5 precursor
such as NOX or 862) from a specified source. Specifically, in this analysis, we multiplied the
estimates from the "Residential Wood Heaters" sector67'68 by the corresponding emission
reductions. The method used to derive these estimates is described in the Technical Support
67 As explained in the TSD (U.S. EPA, 2013), we only have benefit-per-ton estimates for certain analysis years (i.e.,
2005, 2016, 2020, 2025, and 2030). For this RIA, we selected the benefit-per-ton estimate closest to the analysis
year for this RIA.
68 Data from year 2020 was used as the year closest to the full implementation year for both options analyzed in this
RIA—2019 for the Proposal option, 2022 for the Alternative option.
7-7
-------
Document (TSD) on estimating the benefits-per-ton of reducing PM2.5 and its precursors (U.S.
EPA, 2013). One limitation of using the benefit-per-ton approach is an inability to provide
estimates of the health benefits associated with exposure to HAP, CO, NO2 or ozone.
The benefit-per-ton estimates described in the TSD (U.S. EPA, 2013) were derived using
the approach published in Fann et al. (2012), but they have since been updated to reflect the
studies and population data in the final PMNAAQS RIA (U.S. EPA, 2012a). The approach in
Fann et al. (2012) is similar to the work previously published by Fann et al. (2009), but the
newer study includes improvements that EPA believes would provide more reliable estimates of
PM2.s-related health benefits for emissions reductions in specific sectors. Specifically, the air
quality modeling data reflect sectors that are more narrowly defined. In addition, the updated air
quality modeling data reflect more recent emissions data (2005 rather than 2001) and has higher
spatial resolution (12km rather than 36 km grid cells).
As noted below in the characterization of uncertainty, all benefit-per-ton estimates have
inherent limitations. Specifically, all national-average benefit-per-ton estimates reflect the
geographic distribution of the modeled emissions, which may not exactly match the emission
reductions in this rulemaking, and they may not reflect local variability in population density,
meteorology, exposure, baseline health incidence rates, or other local factors for any specific
location.
Even though we assume that all fine particles have equivalent health effects, the benefit-
per-ton estimates vary between precursors depending on the location and magnitude of their
impact on PM2.5 levels, which drive population exposure. The sector-specific modeling does not
provide estimates of the PM2.5-related benefits associated with reducing VOC emissions, but
these unquantified benefits are generally small compared to other PM2.5 precursors (U.S. EPA,
2012a).
7.2.4 PM2 5 Benefits Results
Table 7-2 summarizes the monetized PM-related health benefits by precursor pollutant,
including the emission reductions and benefit-per-ton estimates using discount rates of 3% and
7%. Benefits estimates are based on the average of annual emission reductions from proposed
rule implementation between 2014 and 2022 (inclusive). Table 7-3 provides a summary of the
reductions in health incidences associated with these pollution reductions. Figure 7-1 provides a
visual representation of the range of PM2.5-related benefits estimates using concentration-
response functions from Krewski et al. (2009) and Lepeule et al. (2012) as well as
7-8
-------
Table 7-2. Summary of Monetized PM2.5-Related Health Benefits Estimates for the Proposed Residential Wood Heaters
NSPS in the 2014-2022 Time Frame (2010$)a
Pollutant
Benefit per Benefit Benefit
Emissions ton per ton per ton
Reductions (Krewski, (Lepeule, (Krewski,
(tons) 3%) 3%) 7%)
Benefit
per ton Total Monetized Total Monetized
(Lepeule, Benefits (millions 2010$ Benefits (millions 2010$
7%) at 3%) at 7%)
Proposed
Direct PM2 5
PM2 5 Precursors
VOCb
4,825 $380,000 $860,000 $350,000 $780,000 $1,800 to $4,200 $1,700 to $3,800
3,250
— — to — — to —
Total $1,800 to $4,200 $1,700 to $3,800
Alternative
Direct PM2 5
PM2 5 Precursors
VOCb
4,878 $380000 $860,000 $350,000 $780,000 $1,900 to $4,200 $1,700 to $3,800
,250
— — to — — to —
Total $1,900 to $4,200 $1,700 to $3,800
All estimates reflect the average of annual emission reductions expected to occur between 2014 and 2022 (inclusive) resulting from proposed rule
implementation. All estimates are rounded to two significant figures so numbers may not sum across columns. It is important to note that the monetized
benefits do not include reduced health effects from direct exposure to NO2, ozone exposure, ecosystem effects, or visibility impairment. All fine particles are
assumed to have equivalent health effects, but the benefit per ton estimates vary depending on the location and magnitude of their impact on PM2 5 levels,
which drive population exposure. The monetized benefits incorporate the conversion from precursor emissions to ambient fine particles. Confidence intervals
are unavailable for this analysis because of the benefit-per-ton methodology.
Estimates of VOCs health benefits are currently not monetized and will be addressed only qualitatively.
-------
Table 7-3. Summary of Reductions in Health Incidences from PMi.s-Related Benefits for
the Proposed Residential Wood Heaters NSPS in the 2014-2022 Time Frame"
Avoided Premature Mortality
Krewski et al. (2009) (adult)
Lepeule et al. (2012) (adult)
Avoided Morbidity
Emergency department visits for asthma (all ages)
Acute bronchitis (age 8-12)
Lower respiratory symptoms (age 7-14)
Upper respiratory symptoms (asthmatics age 9-11)
Minor restricted-activity days (age 18-65)
Lost work days (age 18-65)
Asthma exacerbation (age 6-18)
Hospital admissions — respiratory (all ages)
Hospital admissions — cardiovascular (age > 18)
Non-Fatal Heart Attacks (age >18)
Peters etal. (2001)
Pooled estimate of 4 studies
Proposal
210
470
110
320
4,100
5,900
170,000
28,000
15,000
54
66
230
25
Alternative
210
480
100
320
4,200
6,000
170,000
28,0007
15,000
54
66
230
25
a All estimates are rounded to whole numbers with two significant figures. Confidence intervals are unavailable for
this analysis because of the benefit-per-ton methodology.
the 12 functions supplied by experts. Figure 7-2 provides a breakdown of monetized benefits by
Pollutant. In Table 7-4, we provide the benefits using our anchor points of Krewski et al., and
Lepeule et al., as well as the results from the 12 experts' elicitation on PM mortality.
7.2.5 Characterization of Uncertainty in the Monetized PM2.5 Benefits
In any complex analysis using estimated parameters and inputs from numerous models,
there are likely to be many sources of uncertainty. This analysis is no exception. This analysis
includes many data sources as inputs, including emission inventories, air quality data from
models (with their associated parameters and inputs), population data, population estimates,
health effect estimates from epidemiology studies, economic data for monetizing benefits, and
assumptions regarding the future state of the world (i.e., regulations, technology, and human
behavior). Each of these inputs may be uncertain and would affect the benefits estimate. When
the uncertainties from each stage of the analysis are compounded, even small uncertainties can
have large effects on the total quantified benefits. Therefore, the estimates of annual benefits
7-10
-------
Benefits Estimates from 2 epidemiology functions and 12 Expert functions
Proposed Option
$7,000
$6,000
S-$5,000
8 $4,000
vv
£ $3,000
o
= $2,000
$1,000
$0
1 I I I I I I
niiiiiiiiiiii
I3%DR
I7%DR
Figure 7-1. Total Monetized PM2.s Benefits of the Proposed Residential Wood Heaters
NSPS in the 2014-2022 Time Frame3
a This graph shows the estimated benefits at discount rates of 3% and 7% using effect coefficients derived from the
Krewski et al. study and the Lepeule et al. study, as well as 12 effect coefficients derived fromEPA's expert
elicitation onPM mortality. The results shown are not the direct results from the studies or expert elicitation;
rather, the estimates are based in part on the concentration-response functions provided in those studies.
Monetized Benefits by Category for the
Proposed Option - Krewski at 3%
I Wood Stoves
I Single Burn Rate Stoves
Pellet Stoves
I Furnace: indoor, cordwood
Hydronic Heating Systems
Figure 7-2. Breakdown of Total Monetized PMi.s Benefits of Proposed Residential Wood
Heaters NSPS by Category
7-11
-------
Table 7-4. All PM2.5 Benefits Estimates for the Proposed Residential Wood Heaters NSPS
at Discount Rates of 3% and 7% for the 2014 to 2022 Time Frame ($2010
millions)11
Proposal
Benefit-per-ton
Krewski et al.
Lepeule et al.
Benefit-per-ton
Expert A
Expert B
Expert C
Expert D
Expert E
Expert F
Expert G
Expert H
Expert I
Expert J
Expert K
Expert L
3%
7%
Alternative
3%
7%
Coefficients Derived from Epidemiology Literature
$1,800
$4,200
Coefficients Derived from Expert Elicitation
$4,800
$3,800
$3,800
$2,700
$6,100
$3,500
$2,200
$2,800
$3,700
$3,000
$440
$2,500
$1,700
$3,700
$4,300
$3,400
$3,400
$2,400
$5,500
$3,200
$2,000
$2,500
$3,400
$2,700
$400
$2,300
$1,900
$4,200
$4,800
$3,900
$3,800
$2,700
$6,200
$3,600
$2,200
$2,800
$2,800
$3,000
$450
$2,500
$1,700
$3,800
$4,300
$3,500
$3,400
$2,500
$5,600
$3,200
$2,000
$2,500
$3,400
$2,800
$400
$2,300
a All estimates are rounded to two significant figures. Estimates do not include confidence intervals because they
were derived through the benefit-per-ton technique described above. The benefits estimates from the expert
elicitation are provided as a reasonable characterization of the uncertainty in the mortality estimates associated
with the concentration-response function. Confidence intervals are unavailable for this analysis because of the
benefit-per-ton methodology.
should be viewed as representative of the magnitude of benefits expected, rather than the actual
benefits that would occur every year.
This RIA does not include the type of detailed uncertainty assessment found in the PM
NAAQS RIA (U.S. EPA, 2012a) because we lack the necessary air quality input and monitoring
data to run the benefits model. However, the results of the uncertainty analyses presented in the
PM NAAQS RIA can provide some information regarding the uncertainty inherent in the
benefits results presented in this analysis. Sensitivity analyses conducted for the PM NAAQS
RIA indicate that alternate cessation lag assumptions could change the PM2.5-related mortality
7-12
-------
benefits discounted at 3% by between 10% and -27% and that alternate income growth
adjustments could change the PM2.5-related mortality benefits by between 33% and -14%.69
Unlike the PM NAAQS RIA, we do not have data on the specific location of the air
quality changes associated with this rulemaking. As such, it is not feasible to estimate the
proportion of benefits occurring in different locations, such as designated nonattainment areas.
Instead, we applied benefit-per-ton estimates, which reflect specific geographic patterns of
emissions reductions and specific air quality and benefits modeling assumptions. For example,
these estimates do not reflect local variability in population density, meteorology, exposure,
baseline health incidence rates, or other local factors that might lead to an over-estimate or
under-estimate of the actual benefits of controlling PM precursors. Use of these $/ton values to
estimate benefits may lead to higher or lower benefit estimates than if benefits were calculated
based on direct air quality modeling. Great care should be taken in applying these estimates to
emission reductions occurring in any specific location, as these are all based on national or broad
regional emission reduction programs and therefore represent average benefits-per-ton over the
entire United States. The benefits-per-ton for emission reductions in specific locations may be
very different than the estimates presented here. To the extent that the geographic distributions of
the emissions reductions for this rule are different than the modeled emissions, the benefits may
be underestimated or overestimated. In general, there is inherently more uncertainty for new
sources, which may not be included in the emissions inventory, than existing sources. For more
information, see the TSD describing the calculation of these benefit-per-ton estimates (U.S. EPA,
2013).
Our estimate of the total benefits is based on EP A's interpretation of the best available
scientific literature and methods and supported by the SAB-HES and the NAS (NRC, 2002).
Below are key assumptions underlying the estimates for premature mortality, which accounts for
98% of the total monetized PM2.5 benefits:
1. We assume that all fine particles, regardless of their chemical composition, are
equally potent in causing premature mortality. This is an important assumption,
because PM2.5 varies considerably in composition across sources, but the scientific
evidence is not yet sufficient to allow differentiation of effect estimates by particle
type. The PM ISA concluded that "many constituents of PM2.5 can be linked with
multiple health effects, and the evidence is not yet sufficient to allow differentiation
of those constituents or sources that are more closely related to specific outcomes"
(U.S. EPA, 2009).
69
http://www.epa.gov/ttn/ecas/regdata/RIAs/finalria.pdf (pp 6-16).
7-13
-------
2. We assume that the health impact function for fine particles is log-linear without a
threshold in this analysis. Thus, the estimates include health benefits from reducing
fine particles in areas with varied concentrations of PM2.5, including both areas that
do not meet the fine particle standard and those areas that are in attainment, down to
the lowest modeled concentrations.
3. We assume that there is a "cessation" lag between the change in PM exposures and
the total realization of changes in mortality effects. Specifically, we assume that some
of the incidences of premature mortality related to PM2.5 exposures occur in a
distributed fashion over the 20 years following exposure based on the advice of the
SAB-HES (U.S. EPA-SAB, 2004c), which affects the valuation of mortality benefits
at different discount rates.
In general, we are more confident in the magnitude of the risks we estimate from
simulated PM2.5 concentrations that coincide with the bulk of the observed PM concentrations in
the epidemiological studies that are used to estimate the benefits. Likewise, we are less confident
in the risk we estimate from simulated PM2.5 concentrations that fall below the bulk of the
observed data in these studies. Concentration benchmark analyses (e.g., lowest measured level
[LML] or one standard deviation below the mean of the air quality data in the study) allow
readers to determine the portion of population exposed to annual mean PM2.5 levels at or above
different concentrations, which provides some insight into the level of uncertainty in the
estimated PM2.5 mortality benefits. There are uncertainties inherent in identifying any particular
point at which our confidence in reported associations becomes appreciably less, and the
scientific evidence provides no clear dividing line. However, the EPA does not view these
concentration benchmarks as a concentration threshold below which we would not quantify
health benefits of air quality improvements.70 Rather, the benefits estimates reported in this RIA
are the best estimates because they reflect the full range of air quality concentrations associated
with the emission reduction strategies and because the current body of scientific literature
indicates that a no-threshold model provides the best estimate of PM-related long-term mortality.
In other words, although we may have less confidence in the magnitude of the risk at
concentrations below these benchmarks, we still have high confidence that PM2.5 is causally
associated with risk at those lower air quality concentrations.
For this analysis, policy-specific air quality data is not available due to time or resource
limitations. For these rules, we are unable to estimate the percentage of premature mortality
associated with this specific rule's emission reductions at each PM2.5 level. However, we believe
70 For a summary of the scientific review statements regarding the lack of a threshold in the PM2 5-mortality
relationship, see the Technical Support Document (TSD) entitled Summary of Expert Opinions on the Existence
of a Threshold in the Concentration-Response Function for PM2.s-related Mortality (U.S. EPA, 2010b).
7-14
-------
that it is still important to characterize the distribution of exposure to baseline air quality levels.
As a surrogate measure of mortality impacts, we provide the percentage of the population
exposed at each PM2.5 level in the baseline of the source apportionment modeling used to
calculate the benefit-per-ton estimates for this sector. It is important to note that baseline
exposure is only one parameter in the health impact function, along with baseline incidence rates
population, and change in air quality. In other words, the percentage of the population exposed to
air pollution below the LML is not the same as the percentage of the population experiencing
health impacts as a result of a specific emission reduction policy. The most important aspect,
which we are unable to quantify for rules without rule-specific air quality modeling, is the shift
in exposure associated with this specific rule. Therefore, caution is warranted when interpreting
the LML assessment for this rule because these results are not consistent with results from rules
that had air quality modeling.
Table 7-5 provides the percentage of the population exposed above and below two
concentration benchmarks (i.e., LML and 1 standard deviation below the mean) in the modeled
baseline. Figure 7-3 shows a bar chart of the percentage of the population exposed to various air
quality levels in the baseline, and Figure 7-4 shows a cumulative distribution function of the
same data. Both figures identify the LML for each of the major cohort studies.
7.3 Unquantified Benefits
The monetized benefits estimated in this RIA only reflect a subset of benefits attributable
to the health effect reductions associated with ambient fine particles. Data, time, and resource
limitations prevented EPA from quantifying the impacts to, or monetizing the benefits from
several important benefit categories, including benefits associated with the potential exposure to
ozone formation due to VOC emissions as a precursor, VOC emissions as a PM2.5 precursor,
Table 7-5. Population Exposure in the Baseline Above and Below Various Concentration
Benchmarks in the Underlying Epidemiology Studies3
Epidemiology
Study
Krewski et al. (2009)
Lepeuleetal. (2012)
Below 1 Std. Dev.
Below AQ Mean
89%
N/A
At or Above 1 Std.
Dev. Below AQ Mean
11%
N/A
Below LML
7%
23%
At or Above
LML
93%
67%
One standard deviation below the mean is equivalent to the middle of the range between the 10th and 25th
percentile. For Krewski, the LML is 5.8 ug/m3 and one standard deviation below the mean is 11.0 ug/m3. For
Lepeule et al., the LML is 8 ug/m3 and we do not have the data for one standard deviation below the mean. It is
important to emphasize that although we have lower levels of confidence in levels below the LML for each study,
the scientific evidence does not support the existence of a level below which health effects from exposure to PM25
do not occur.
7-15
-------
LML of Krewski et
al. (2009) study
•a
a
o
0.
X
c 15/4
o
Q.
O
a.
0
Q)
aJ
o.
„ _ • II
LML of Lepeuleetal.
(2(
112) stu
dy
<1
1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-6 6-7 7-8 8-9 9-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20
Baseline Annual Mean PM2 5 Level (|ig/m3)
Among the populations exposed to PM2.s in the baseline:
93% are exposed to PM2.s levels at or above the LML of the Krewski et al. (2009) study
67% are exposed to PlVh.s levels at or above the LML of the Lepeule et al. (2012) study
Figure 7-3. Percentage of Adult Population by Annual Mean PM2.s Exposure in the
Baseline
HAP, CO exposure, as well as ecosystem effects, and visibility impairment due to the absence of
air quality modeling data for these pollutants in this analysis. This does not imply that there are
no benefits associated with these emission reductions. In this section, we provide a qualitative
description of these benefits.
7.3.1 HAPBenefits
Even though emissions of air toxics from all sources in the U.S. declined by
approximately 42% since 1990, the 2005 National-Scale Air Toxics Assessment (NATA)
predicts that most Americans are exposed to ambient concentrations of air toxics at levels that
have the potential to cause adverse health effects (U.S. EPA, 201 lc).71 The levels of air toxics to
71
The 2005 NATA is available on the Internet at http://www.epa.gov/ttn/atw/nata2005/.
7-16
-------
100%
90%
80%
70%
LMLof Lepeuleet
al. (2012) study
I
til
60%
50%
40%
2 30%
E
3
u
20%
10%
LMLof Krewski et
al. (2009) study
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Baseline Annual Mean PM, 5 Level (ug/m3)
15
16
17
18
19
20
Among the populations exposed to PM2.s in the baseline:
93% are exposed to PM2.s levels at or above the LML of the Krewski et al. (2009) study
67% are exposed to PM25 levels at or above the LML of the Lepeule et al. (2012) study
Figure 7-4. Cumulative Distribution of Adult Population by Annual Mean
Exposure in the Baseline
which people are exposed vary depending on where people live and work and the kinds of
activities in which they engage. In order to identify and prioritize air toxics, emission source
types and locations that are of greatest potential concern, U.S. EPA conducts the NAT A.72 The
most recent NATA was conducted for calendar year 2005 and was released in March 2011.
NAT A includes four steps:
1. Compiling a national emissions inventory of air toxics emissions from outdoor
sources
72 The NATA modeling framework has a number of limitations that prevent its use as the sole basis for setting
regulatory standards. These limitations and uncertainties are discussed on the 2005 NATA website. Even so, this
modeling framework is very useful in identifying air toxic pollutants and sources of greatest concern, setting
regulatory priorities, and informing the decision making process. U.S. EPA.(2011). 2005 National-Scale Air
Toxics Assessment, http://www.epa.gov/ttn/atw/nata2005/
7-17
-------
2. Estimating ambient and exposure concentrations of air toxics across the United States
3. Estimating population exposures across the United States
4. Characterizing potential public health risk due to inhalation of air toxics including
both cancer and noncancer effects
Based on the 2005 NAT A, EPA estimates that about 5% of census tracts nationwide have
increased cancer risks greater than 100 in a million. The average national cancer risk is about 50
in a million. Nationwide, the key pollutants that contribute most to the overall cancer risks are
formaldehyde and benzene.73 Secondary formation (e.g., formaldehyde forming from other
emitted pollutants) was the largest contributor to cancer risks, while stationary, mobile and
background sources contribute almost equal portions of the remaining cancer risk.
Noncancer health effects can result from chronic,74 subchronic,75 or acute76 inhalation
exposures to air toxics, and include neurological, cardiovascular, liver, kidney, and respiratory
effects as well as effects on the immune and reproductive systems. According to the 2005
NAT A, about three-fourths of the U.S. population was exposed to an average chronic
concentration of air toxics that has the potential for adverse noncancer respiratory health effects.
Results from the 2005 NATA indicate that acrolein is the primary driver for noncancer
respiratory risk.
Figures 7-5 and 7-6 depict the estimated census tract-level carcinogenic risk and
noncancer respiratory hazard from the assessment. It is important to note that large reductions in
HAP emissions may not necessarily translate into significant reductions in health risk because
toxicity varies by pollutant, and exposures may or may not exceed levels of concern. For
example, acetaldehyde mass emissions are more than double acrolein emissions on a national
basis, according to EPA's 2005 National Emissions Inventory (NEI). However, the Integrated
Risk Information System (IRIS) reference concentration (RfC) for acrolein is considerably lower
73 Details about the overall confidence of certainty ranking of the individual pieces of NATA assessments including
both quantitative (e.g., model-to-monitor ratios) and qualitative (e.g., quality of data, review of emission
inventories) judgments can be found at http://www.epa.gov/ttn/atw/nata/roy/pagel6.html.
74 Chronic exposure is defined in the glossary of the Integrated Risk Information (IRIS) database
(http://www.epa.gov/iris ) as repeated exposure by the oral, dermal, or inhalation route for more than
approximately 10% of the life span in humans (more than approximately 90 days to 2 years in typically used
laboratory animal species).
75 Defined in the IRIS database as repeated exposure by the oral, dermal, or inhalation route for more than 30 days,
up to approximately 10% of the life span in humans (more than 30 days up to approximately 90 days in typically
used laboratory animal species).
76 Defined in the IRIS database as exposure by the oral, dermal, or inhalation route for 24 hours or less.
7-18
-------
*•
Cancer Risk
(in a million)
1-25
HH 25 - 50
^B 50 - 75
^H 75-100
^H >100
Zero Population Tracts
Figure 7-5. Estimated Census Tract Carcinogenic Risk from HAP Exposure from
Outdoor Sources (2005 NATA)
than that for acetaldehyde, suggesting that acrolein could be potentially more toxic than
acetaldehyde. Thus, it is important to account for the toxicity and exposure, as well as the mass
of the targeted emissions.
Due to methodology limitations, we were unable to estimate the benefits associated with
the hazardous air pollutants that would be reduced as a result of these rules. In a few previous
analyses of the benefits of reductions in HAP, EPA has quantified the benefits of potential
reductions in the incidences of cancer and non-cancer risk (e.g., U.S. EPA, 1995). In those
analyses, EPA relied on unit risk factors (URF) developed through risk assessment
procedures.77These URFs are designed to be conservative, and as such, are more likely to
' The unit risk factor is a quantitative estimate of the carcinogenic potency of a pollutant, often expressed as the
probability of contracting cancer from a 70-year lifetime continuous exposure to a concentration of one ug/m3 of
a pollutant.
7-19
-------
* /
0 .
Total Respiratory
Hazard Index
o. 1
1 -5
IB s-10
•B 10- 15
•• 15-20
Zero Population Tracts
Figure 7-6. Estimated Chronic Census Tract Noncancer (Respiratory) Risk from HAP
Exposure from Outdoor Sources (2005 NATA)
represent the high end of the distribution of risk rather than a best or most likely estimate of risk.
As the purpose of a benefit analysis is to describe the benefits most likely to occur from a
reduction in pollution, use of high-end, conservative risk estimates would overestimate the
benefits of the regulation. While we used high-end risk estimates in past analyses, advice from
the EPA's Science Advisory Board (SAB) recommended that we avoid using high-end estimates
in benefit analyses (U.S. EPA-SAB, 2002). Since this time, EPA has continued to develop better
methods for analyzing the benefits of reductions in HAP.
As part of the second prospective analysis of the benefits and costs of the Clean Air Act
(U.S. EPA, 201 la), EPA conducted a case study analysis of the health effects associated with
reducing exposure to benzene in Houston from implementation of the Clean Air Act (lEc, 2009).
While reviewing the draft report, EPA's Advisory Council on Clean Air Compliance Analysis
concluded that "the challenges for assessing progress in health improvement as a result of
reductions in emissions of hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) are daunting... due to a lack of
7-20
-------
exposure-response functions, uncertainties in emissions inventories and background levels, the
difficulty of extrapolating risk estimates to low doses and the challenges of tracking health
progress for diseases, such as cancer, that have long latency periods" (U.S. EPA-SAB, 2008).
In 2009, EPA convened a workshop to address the inherent complexities, limitations, and
uncertainties in current methods to quantify the benefits of reducing HAP. Recommendations
from this workshop included identifying research priorities, focusing on susceptible and
vulnerable populations, and improving dose-response relationships (Gwinn et al., 2011).
In summary, monetization of the benefits of reductions in cancer incidences requires
several important inputs, including central estimates of cancer risks, estimates of exposure to
carcinogenic HAP, and estimates of the value of an avoided case of cancer (fatal and non-fatal).
Due to methodology limitations, we did not attempt to monetize the health benefits of reductions
in HAP in this analysis. Instead, we provide a qualitative analysis of the health effects associated
with the HAP anticipated to be reduced by these rules. EPA remains committed to improving
methods for estimating HAP benefits by continuing to explore additional concepts of benefits,
including changes in the distribution of risk.
Below we describe the health effects associated with the HAPs that would be reduced by
this rulemaking.
7.3.1.1 Benzene
The EPA's IRIS database lists benzene as a known human carcinogen (causing leukemia)
by all routes of exposure, and concludes that exposure is associated with additional health effects,
including genetic changes in both humans and animals and increased proliferation of bone marrow
cells in mice.78'79'80 EPA states in its IRIS database that data indicate a causal relationship between
benzene exposure and acute lymphocyte leukemia and suggest a relationship between benzene
exposure and chronic non-lymphocytic leukemia and chronic lymphocytic leukemia. The IARC
78 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). 2000. Integrated Risk Information System File for Benzene.
Research and Development, National Center for Environmental Assessment, Washington, DC. This material is
available electronically at: http://www.epa.gov/iris/subst/0276.htm
79 International Agency for Research on Cancer, IARC monographs on the evaluation of carcinogenic risk of
chemicals to humans, Volume 29, Some industrial chemicals and dyestuffs, International Agency for Research
on Cancer, World Health Organization, Lyon, France, p. 345-389, 1982.
80 Irons, R.D.; Stillman, W.S.; Colagiovanni, D.B.; Henry, V. A. (1992) Synergistic action of the benzene metabolite
hydroquinone on myelopoietic stimulating activity of granulocyte/macrophage colony-stimulating factor in vitro,
Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 89:3691-3695.
7-21
-------
has determined that benzene is a human carcinogen and the DHHS has characterized benzene as a
known human carcinogen.81'82
A number of adverse noncancer health effects including blood disorders, such as
preleukemia and aplastic anemia, have also been associated with long-term exposure to
benzene.83'84
7.3.1.2 Dioxins (Chlorinated dibenzodioxins (CDDs)85
A number of effects have been observed in people exposed to 2,3,7,8-TCDD levels that
are at least 10 times higher than background levels. The most obvious health effect in people
exposure to relatively large amounts of 2,3,7,8-TCDD is Chloracne. Chloracne is a severe skin
disease with acne-like lesions that occur mainly on the face and upper body. Other skin effects
noted in people exposed to high doses of 2,3,7,8-TCDD include skin rashes, discoloration, and
excessive body hair. Changes in blood and urine that may indicate liver damage also are seen in
people. Alterations in the ability of the liver to metabolize (or breakdown) hemoglobin, lipids,
sugar, and protein have been reported in people exposed to relatively high concentrations of
2,3,7,8-TCDD. Most of the effects are considered mild and were reversible. However, in some
people these effects may last for many years. Slight increases in the risk of diabetes and
abnormal glucose tolerance have been observed in some studies of people exposed to 2,3,7,8-
TCDD. We do not have enough information to know if exposure to 2,3,7,8-TCDD would result
in reproductive or developmental effects in people, but animal studies suggest that this is a
potential health concern.
In certain animal species, 2,3,7,8-TCDD is especially harmful and can cause death after a
single exposure. Exposure to lower levels can cause a variety of effects in animals, such as
weightless, liver damage, and disruption of the endocrine system. In many species of animals,
2,3,7,8-TCDD weakens the immune system and causes a decrease in the system's ability to fight
bacteria and viruses at relatively low levels (approximately 10 times higher than human
81 International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). 1987. Monographs on the evaluation of carcinogenic risk
of chemicals to humans, Volume 29, Supplement 7, Some industrial chemicals and dyestuffs, World Health
Organization, Lyon, France.
82 U.S. Department of Health and Human Services National Toxicology Program 11th Report on Carcinogens
available at: http://ntp.niehs.nih.gov/go/16183 .
83 Aksoy, M. (1989). Hematotoxicity and carcinogenicity of benzene. Environ. Health Perspect. 82: 193-197.
84 Goldstein, B.D. (1988). Benzene toxicity. Occupational medicine. State of the Art Reviews. 3: 541-554.
85 All health effects language for this section came from: Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry
(ATSDR). 1999. ToxFAQs for Chlorinated Dibenzo-p-dioxins (CDDs) (CAS#: 2,3,7,8-TCDD 1746-01-6).
Atlanta, GA: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Public Health Service. Available on the Internet at
http://www.atsdr.cdc.gov/tfactsl04.html.
7-22
-------
background body burdens). In other animal studies, exposure to 2,3,7,8-TCDD has caused
reproductive damage and birth defects. Some animal species exposed to CDDs during pregnancy
had miscarriages and the offspring of animals exposed to 2,3,7,8-TCDD during pregnancy often
had severe birth defects including skeletal deformities, kidney defects, and weakened immune
responses. In some studies, effects were observed at body burdens 10 times higher than human
background levels.
7.3.1.3 Formaldehyde
Since 1987, EPA has classified formaldehyde as a probable human carcinogen based on
evidence in humans and in rats, mice, hamsters, and monkeys.86 Substantial additional research
since that time informs current scientific understanding of the health effects associated with
exposure to formaldehyde. These include recently published research conducted by the National
Cancer Institute (NCI) which found an increased risk of nasopharyngeal cancer and
lymphohematopoietic malignancies such as leukemia among workers exposed to
formaldehyde.87'88 In an analysis of the lymphohematopoietic cancer mortality from an extended
follow-up of these workers, NCI confirmed an association between lymphohematopoietic cancer
risk and peak formaldehyde exposures.89 A recent NIOSH study of garment workers also found
increased risk of death due to leukemia among workers exposed to formaldehyde.90 Extended
follow-up of a cohort of British chemical workers did not find evidence of an increase in
nasopharyngeal or lymphohematopoietic cancers, but a continuing statistically significant excess
in lung cancers was reported.91
In the past 15 years there has been substantial research on the inhalation dosimetry for
formaldehyde in rodents and primates by the Chemical Industry Institute of Toxicology (CUT,
now renamed the Hamner Institutes for Health Sciences), with a focus on use of rodent data for
U.S. EPA. 1987. Assessment of Health Risks to Garment Workers and Certain Ho me Residents from Exposure to
Formaldehyde, Office of Pesticides and Toxic Substances, April 1987. Docket EPA-HQ-OAR-2010-0162.
87 Hauptmann, M; Lubin, J. H.; Stewart, P. A.; Hayes, R. B.; Blair, A. 2003. Mortality fromlymphohematopoetic
malignancies among workers in formaldehyde industries. Journal of the National Cancer Institute 95: 1615-1623.
Docket EPA-HQ-OAR-2010-0162.
88 Hauptmann, M.; Lubin, J. H.; Stewart, P. A; Hayes, R. B.; Blair, A. 2004. Mortality from solid cancers among
workers in formaldehyde industries. American Journal of Epidemiology 159: 1117-1130. Docket EPA-HQ-
OAR-2010-0162.
89Beane Freeman, L. E.; Blair, A.; Lubin, J. H.; Stewart, P. A.; Hayes, R. B.; Hoover, R. N.; Hauptmann, M. 2009.
Mortality from lymphohematopoietic malignancies among workers in formaldehyde industries: The National
Cancer Institute cohort. J. National Cancer Inst. 101: 751-761. Docket EPA-HQ-OAR-2010-0162.
90Pinkerton, L. E. 2004. Mortality among a cohort of garment workers exposed to formaldehyde: an update. Occup.
Environ. Med. 61: 193-200. Docket EPA-HQ-OAR-2010-0162.
91 Coggon, D, EC Harris, J Poole, KT Palmer. 2003. Extended follow-up of a cohort of British chemical workers
exposed to formaldehyde. J National Cancer Inst. 95:1608-1615. Docket EPA-HQ-OAR-2010-0162.
7-23
-------
refinement of the quantitative cancer dose-response assessment.92'93'94 CUT's risk assessment of
formaldehyde incorporated mechanistic and dosimetric information on formaldehyde. These data
were modeled using a biologically-motivated two-stage clonal growth model for cancer and also
a point of departure based on a Benchmark Dose approach. However, it should be noted that
recent research published by EPA indicates that when two-stage modeling assumptions are
varied, resulting dose-response estimates can vary by several orders of magnitude.95'96'97'98 These
findings are not supportive of interpreting the CUT model results as providing a conservative
(health protective) estimate of human risk.99 EPA research also examined the contribution of the
two-stage modeling for formaldehyde towards characterizing the relative weights of key events
in the mode-of-action of a carcinogen. For example, the model-based inference in the published
CUT study that formaldehyde's direct mutagenic action is not relevant to the compound's
tumorigenicity was found not to hold under variations of modeling assumptions. 10°
Based on the developments of the last decade, in 2004, the working group of the IARC
concluded that formaldehyde is carcinogenic to humans (Group 1), on the basis of sufficient
evidence in humans and sufficient evidence in experimental animals—a higher classification
than previous IARC evaluations. After reviewing the currently available epidemiological
evidence, the IARC (2006) characterized the human evidence for formaldehyde carcinogenicity
92 Conolly, RB, JS Kimbell, D Janszen, PM Schlosser, D Kalisak, J Preston, and FJ Miller. 2003. Biologically
motivated computational modeling of formaldehyde carcinogenicity in the F344 rat. Tox Sci 75: 432-447.
Docket EPA-HQ-OAR-2010-0162.
93 Conolly, RB, JS Kimbell, D Janszen, PM Schlosser, D Kalisak, J Preston, and FJ Miller. 2004. Human respiratory
tract cancer risks of inhaled formaldehyde: Dose-response predictions derived from biologically-motivated
computational modeling of a combined rodent and human dataset. Tox Sci 82: 279-296. Docket EPA-HQ-OAR-
2010-0162.
94 Chemical Industry Institute of Toxicology (CUT). 1999. Formaldehyde: Hazard characterization and dose-response
assessment for carcinogenicity by the route of inhalation. CUT, September 28, 1999. Research Triangle Park,
NC. Docket EPA-HQ-OAR-2010-0162.
95 U.S. EPA. Analysis of the Sensitivity and Uncertainty in 2-Stage Clonal Growth Models for Formaldehyde with
Relevance to Other Biologically-Based Dose Response (BBDR) Models. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
Washington, D.C., EPA/600/R-08/103, 2008. Docket EPA-HQ-OAR-2010-0162.
96 Subramaniam, R; Chen, C; Crump, K; et al. (2008) Uncertainties in biologically-based modeling of formaldehyde-
induced cancer risk: identification of key issues. Risk Anal 28(4):907-923. Docket EPA-HQ-OAR-2010-0162.
97 Subramaniam RP; Crump KS; Van Landingham C; et al. (2007) Uncertainties in the CUT model for
formaldehyde-induced carcinogenicity in the rat: A limited sensitivity analysis-I. Risk Anal, 27: 1237-1254.
Docket EPA-HQ-OAR-2010-0162.
98 Crump, K; Chen, C; Fox, J; et al. (2008) Sensitivity analysis of biologically motivated model for formaldehyde-
induced respiratory cancer in humans. Ann Occup Hyg 52:481-495. Docket EPA-HQ-OAR-2010-0162.
99 Crump, K; Chen, C; Fox, J; et al. (2008) Sensitivity analysis of biologically motivated model for formaldehyde-
induced respiratory cancer in humans. Ann Occup Hyg 52:481-495. Docket EPA-HQ-OAR-2010-0162.
100 Subramaniam RP; Crump KS; Van Landingham C; et al. (2007) Uncertainties in the CUT model for
formaldehyde-induced carcinogenicity in the rat: A limited sensitivity analysis-I. Risk Anal, 27: 1237-1254.
Docket EPA-HQ-OAR-2010-0162.
7-24
-------
as "sufficient," based upon the data on nasopharyngeal cancers; the epidemiologic evidence on
leukemia was characterized as "strong."101
Formaldehyde exposure also causes a range of noncancer health effects, including
irritation of the eyes (burning and watering of the eyes), nose and throat. Effects from repeated
exposure in humans include respiratory tract irritation, chronic bronchitis and nasal epithelial
lesions such as metaplasia and loss of cilia. Animal studies suggest that formaldehyde may also
cause airway inflammation—including eosinophils infiltration into the airways. There are several
studies that suggest that formaldehyde may increase the risk of asthma—particularly in the
young.102'103
The above-mentioned rodent and human studies, as well as mechanistic information and
their analyses, were evaluated in EPA's recent Draft Toxicological Review of Formaldehyde—
Inhalation Assessment through the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) program. This
draft IRIS assessment was released in June 2010 for public review and comment and external
peer review by the National Research Council (NRC). The NRC released their review report in
April 2011 (http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php7record id=13142). The EPA is currently revising
the draft assessment in response to this review.
7.3.1.4 Poly'cyclic Organic Matter (POM)
The term polycyclic organic matter (POM) defines a broad class of compounds that
includes the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon compounds (PAHs). One of these compounds,
naphthalene, is discussed separately below. POM compounds are formed primarily from
combustion and are present in the atmosphere in gas and particulate form. Cancer is the major
concern from exposure to POM. Epidemiologic studies have reported an increase in lung cancer
in humans exposed to diesel exhaust, coke oven emissions, roofing tar emissions, and cigarette
smoke; all of these mixtures contain POM compounds104'105 Animal studies have reported
101 International Agency for Research on Cancer (2006) Formaldehyde, 2-Butoxyethanol and l-tert-Butoxypropan-2-
ol. Monographs Volume 88. World Health Organization, Lyon, France. Docket EPA-HQ-OAR-2010-0162.
102 Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (ATSDR). 1999. Toxicological profile for Formaldehyde.
Atlanta, GA: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Public Health Service.
http://www.atsdr.cdc.gov/toxprofiles/tpl 1 l.html. Docket EPA-HQ-OAR-2010-0162.
103 WHO (2002) Concise International Chemical Assessment Document 40: Formaldehyde. Published under the
joint sponsorship of the United Nations Environment Programme, the International Labour Organization, and the
World Health Organization, and produced within the framework of the Inter-Organization Programme for the
Sound Management of Chemicals. Geneva. Docket EPA-HQ-OAR-2010-0162.
104 Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (ATSDR). 1995. Toxicological profile for Polycyclic
Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs). Atlanta, GA: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Public Health
Service. Available electronically at http://www.atsdr.cdc.gov/ToxProfiles/TP.asp?id= 122&tid=25.
7-25
-------
respiratory tract tumors from inhalation exposure to benzo[a]pyrene and alimentary tract and
liver tumors from oral exposure to benzo[a]pyrene. EPA has classified seven PAHs
(benzo[a]pyrene, benz[a]anthracene, chrysene, benzo[b]fluoranthene, benzo[k]fluoranthene,
dibenz[a,h]anthracene, and indeno[l,2,3-cd]pyrene) as Group B2, probable human
carcinogens.106 Recent studies have found that maternal exposures to PAHs in a population of
pregnant women were associated with several adverse birth outcomes, including low birth
weight and reduced length at birth, as well as impaired cognitive development in preschool
children (3 years of age).107'108 EPA has not yet evaluated these recent studies.
7.3.1.5 Other Air Toxics
In addition to the compounds described above, other compounds would be affected by
this rule. Information regarding the health effects of these compounds can be found in EPA's
IRIS database.109
7.3.2 Carbon Monoxide Co-Benefits
Carbon monoxide in ambient air is formed primarily by the incomplete combustion of
carbon-containing fuels and photochemical reactions in the atmosphere. The amount of CO
emitted from these reactions, relative to carbon dioxide (CCh), is sensitive to conditions in the
combustion zone, such as fuel oxygen content, burn temperature, or mixing time. Upon
inhalation, CO diffuses through the respiratory system to the blood, which can cause hypoxia
(reduced oxygen availability). Carbon monoxide can elicit a broad range of effects in multiple
tissues and organ systems that are dependent upon concentration and duration of exposure. The
Integrated Science Assessment for Carbon Monoxide (U.S. EPA, 2010a) concluded that short-
term exposure to CO is "likely to have a causal relationship" with cardiovascular morbidity,
particularly in individuals with coronary heart disease. Epidemiologic studies associate short-
term CO exposure with increased risk of emergency department visits and hospital admissions.
Coronary heart disease includes those who have angina pectoris (cardiac chest pain), as well as
105 U.S. EPA (2002). Health Assessment Document for Diesel Engine Exhaust. EPA/600/8-90/057F Office of
Research and Development, Washington DC. Retrieved on March 17, 2009 from
http://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/cfm/recordisplav.cfm?deid=29060. Docket EPA-HQ-OAR-2010-0162.
106 U.S. EPA (1997). Integrated Risk Information System File of indeno( 1,2,3-cd)pyrene. Research and
Development, National Center for Environmental Assessment, Washington, DC. This material is available
electronically at http://www.epa.gov/ncea/iris/subst/0457.htm.
107 Perera, P.P.; Rauh, V.; Tsai, W-Y.; et al. (2002) Effect of transplacental exposure to environmental pollutants on
birth outcomes in a multiethnic population. Environ Health Perspect. Ill: 201 -205.
108 Perera, P.P.; Rauh, V.; Whyatt, R.M.; Tsai, W.Y.; Tang, D.; Diaz, D.; Hoepner, L.; Barr, D.; Tu, Y.H.; Camann,
D.; Kinney, P. (2006) Effect of prenatal exposure to airborne polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons on
neurodevelopment in the first 3 years of life among inner-city children. Environ Health Perspect 114: 1287-1292.
109 U.S. EPA Me grated Risk Information System (IRIS) database is available at: www.epa.gov/iris.
7-26
-------
those who have experienced a heart attack. Other subpopulations potentially at risk include
individuals with diseases such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), anemia, or
diabetes, and individuals in very early or late life stages, such as older adults or the developing
young. The evidence is suggestive of a causal relationship between short-term exposure to CO
and respiratory morbidity and mortality. The evidence is also suggestive of a causal relationship
for birth outcomes and developmental effects following long-term exposure to CO, and for
central nervous system effects linked to short- and long-term exposure to CO.
7.3.3 Black Carbon (EC) Benefits
Incomplete combustion of wood results in emissions of fine and ultrafine particles,
including black carbon (BC), brown carbon (BrC), and other nonlight, absorbing organic carbon
(OC) particles. BC and BrC are collectively considered light, absorbing carbon (LAC) with BC
referring to the most strongly light-absorbing form of carbon per unit mass. BC impacts the
earth's climate because of its high capacity for light absorption. The role of BC in key
atmospheric processes links it to a range of climate impacts, including increased temperatures,
accelerated ice and snow melt, and disruptions in precipitation patterns. A recent study by the
UN Environment Programme (UNEP) concluded that reductions in BC and ozone will slow the
rate of climate change within the first half of this century with a small number of targeted BC
and ozone precursor emissions mitigation measures providing immediate protection for climate,
public health, water and food security, and ecosystems (UNEP, 2011).110
While less effective in absorbing solar radiation than BC, BrC may contribute
significantly to positive radiative forcing. At present the ability to quantify the climate impacts of
BrC is limited. OC from incomplete combustion of wood (exclusive of BrC) is generally
considered nonlight-absorbing carbon. Nonlight absorbing compounds scatter rather than absorb
solar radiation and, therefore, provide a net direct cooling effect on climate. Thus, particles
generated by residential wood combustion consist of components that are warming to the
atmosphere (BC and BrC) and particles that are cooling (OC exclusive of BrC).
Residential wood combustion contributed about 380,000 tons of PM2.5 emissions across
the United States in 2005. Of these PM2.5 emissions, approximately 21,000 tons are estimated to
110UN Environment Programme, World Meteorological Organization. 2011, February. Integrated Assessment of
Black Carbon and Tropospheric Ozone: Summary for Decision Makers. Available at
http://www.unep.org/gc/gc26/download.asp?ID=2197.
7-27
-------
be elemental carbon (EC)111 (EPANEI, 2005).112
The EC/OC ratio is a metric sometimes used to crudely compare the warming potential of
emissions from various BC sources with a ratio of less than 1 indicating that cooling potential
exceeds warming. Based on the speciated 2005 NEI, the EC/OC for residential wood combustion
is estimated to be less than one (~ 0.11), indicating a predominance of OC or light-scattering
particles relative to light absorbing ones. Exactly how much of the OC from RWC sources is
light absorbing (BrC) is not known currently, and the LAC may vary by fuel type, combustion
conditions, and operating environment.
While OC emissions are generally considered to have a cooling effect, OC emissions
over areas with snow and ice may be less reflective than OC over dark surfaces and may even
have a slight warming effect (Planner et al., 2007).113 Significantly, the vast majority of
residential wood smoke emissions occur during the winter months; the highest percentage of
wood stove use is in the upper Midwest (e.g., Michigan), the Northeast (e.g., Maine), and the
mountainous areas of the Pacific North west (e.g., Washington), where snow is present a good
portion of the winter months. A recent study of the effect of soot-induced snow albedo on
snowpack and hydrological cycles in the western United States concludes that radiative forcing
induced by soot deposition on snow is an important anthropogenic source affecting the global
climate. The study concludes that soot-induced snow albedo perturbations increase the surface
net solar radiation flux during late winter to early spring, increase the surface air temperature,
reduce the snow accumulation and spring snowmelt, and may alter stream flows with
implications for water resources in the western United States (Qian, et al., 2009).114 Further study
is needed to better understand and quantify the impact of PM2.5 emissions and deposition from
the RWC sector on climate.
111 BC is roughly equivalent to 'soot carbon' or the portion of soot that is closest to elemental carbon. The most
commonly used measurement technique, the 'thermal optical method' quantifies the portion of PM that is EC.
EC is frequently used for emissions characterization and ambient measurements. The terms EC and BC are used
interchangeably in this discussion.
112U.S. EPA. 2005. National Emissions Inventory. 2005 Modeling Inventory. Available at.
http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/emch/index.html.
113Flanner, M. G., Zender, C. S., Randerson, J. T., and Rasch, P. J. 2007. Present-day climate forcing and response
fromBC in snow. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 12(D11). doi: 10.1029/2006JD008003
114 Qian, Y., W. I. Gustafson, L. R. Leung, and S. J. Ghan. 2009. Effects of soot-induced snow albedo change on
snowpack and hydrological cycle in western United States based on Weather Research and Forecasting
chemistry and regional climate simulations, J. Geophys. Res. 114, D03108. doi:10.1029/2008JD011039
7-28
-------
7.3.4 VOCs as a PM2.5 Precursor
This rulemaking is expected to reduce emissions of VOCs, which are a precursor to
PM2.5. Most VOCs emitted are oxidized to carbon dioxide (CO2) rather than to PM, but a portion
of VOC emission contributes to ambient PM2.5 levels as organic carbon aerosols (U.S. EPA,
2009c). Therefore, reducing these emissions would reduce PM2.5 formation, human exposure to
PM2.5, and the incidence of PM2.5-related health effects. However, we have not quantified the
PM2.s-related benefits associated with VOC reductions in this analysis. Analysis of organic
carbon measurements suggest only a fraction of secondarily formed organic carbon aerosols are
of anthropogenic origin. The current state of the science of secondary organic carbon aerosol
formation indicates that anthropogenic VOC contribution to secondary organic carbon aerosol is
often lower than the biogenic (natural) contribution. Given that a fraction of secondarily formed
organic carbon aerosols is from anthropogenic VOC emissions and the extremely small amount
of VOC emissions from this sector relative to the entire VOC inventory it is unlikely this sector
has a large contribution to ambient secondary organic carbon aerosols. Photochemical models
typically estimate secondary organic carbon from anthropogenic VOC emissions to be less than
0.1 |ig/m3.
Due to limited resources, we were unable to perform air quality modeling for this rule.
Therefore, given the high degree of variability in the responsiveness of PM2.5 formation to VOC
emission reductions, we are unable to estimate the effect that reducing VOCs will have on
ambient PM2.5 levels without air quality modeling.
7.3.5 VOCs as an Ozone Precursor
In the presence of sunlight, VOCs can undergo a chemical reaction in the atmosphere to
form ozone. Reducing ambient ozone concentrations is associated with significant human health
benefits, including mortality and respiratory morbidity (U.S. EPA, 2008a). Epidemiological
researchers have associated ozone exposure with adverse health effects in numerous
lexicological, clinical and epidemiological studies (U.S. EPA, 2006). These health effects
include respiratory morbidity such as fewer asthma attacks, hospital and ER visits, school loss
days, as well as premature mortality.
In addition to health impacts reduction, there are ecological benefits from reducing the
formation of ozone and related exposure that leads to reduced net primary productivity and
visible foliar injury which are associated with a range of ecosystems services.
7-29
-------
7.3.6 Visibility Impairment Co-Benefits
Reducing secondary formation of PM2.5 would improve visibility levels in the U.S.
because suspended particles and gases degrade visibility by scattering and absorbing light (U.S.
EPA, 2009). Fine particles with significant light-extinction efficiencies include sulfates, nitrates,
organic carbon, elemental carbon, and soil (Sisler, 1996). Visibility has direct significance to
people's enjoyment of daily activities and their overall sense of wellbeing. Good visibility
increases the quality of life where individuals live and work, and where they engage in
recreational activities. Particulate sulfate is the dominant source of regional haze in the eastern
U.S. and particulate nitrate is an important contributor to light extinction in California and the
upper Midwestern U.S., particularly during winter (U.S. EPA, 2009). Previous analyses (U.S.
EPA, 201 la) show that visibility benefits can be a significant welfare benefit category. Without
air quality modeling, we are not unable to estimate visibility related benefits, nor are we able to
determine whether the emission reductions associated with this rule would be likely to have a
significant impact on visibility in urban areas or Class I areas.
7.4 References
Abt Associates, Inc. 2012. BenMAP User's Manual Appendices. Prepared for U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards.
Research Triangle Park, NC. September. Available on the Internet at
http://www.epa.gov/air/benmap/models/BenMAPAppendicesOct2012.pdf.
Fann, N., C.M. Fulcher, BJ. Hubbell. 2009. "The influence of location, source, and emission
type in estimates of the human health benefits of reducing a ton of air pollution." Air
QualAtmos Health 2:169-176.
Fann, N., K.R. Baker, and C.M. Fulcher. 2012. "Characterizing the PM2.5-related health benefits
of emission reductions for 17 industrial, area and mobile emission sectors across the
U. S." Environment International 49 41-151.
Gwinn, M.R., J. Craig, D. A. Axelrad, R. Cook, C. Dockins, N. Fann, R. Fegley, D.E. Guinnup,
G. Helfand, B. Hubbell, S.L. Mazur, T. Palma, R.L. Smith, J. Vandenberg, and
B. Sonawane. 2011. "Meeting report: Estimating the benefits of reducing hazardous air
pollutants—summary of 2009 workshop and future considerations." Environ Health
Perspect. Jan; 119(1): p. 125-30.
Industrial Economics, Inc (ffic). 2009. Section 812 Prospective Study of the Benefits and Costs of
the Clean Air Act: Air Toxics Case Study—Health Benefits of Benzene Reductions in
Houston, 1990-2020. Final Report, July 14, 2009. Available on the Internet at
http://www.epa.gov/air/sect812/dec09/812CAAA Benzene Houston Final Report July
2009.pdf
7-30
-------
Industrial Economics, Incorporated (ffic). 2006. Expanded Expert Judgment Assessment of'the
Concentration-Response Relationship Between PM2.sExposure and Mortality. Prepared
for: Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC. September. Available on the Internet at
http://www.epa.gov/ttn/ecas/regdata/Uncertainty/pm eetsd expert interview summarie
s.pdf
Krewski D, Jerrett M, Burnett RT, Ma R, Hughes E, Shi, Y, et al. 2009. Extended follow-up and
spatial analysis of the American Cancer Society study linking particulate air pollution
and mortality. HEI Research Report, 140, Health Effects Institute, Boston, MA.
Lepeule J, Laden F, Dockery D, Schwartz J 2012. "Chronic Exposure to Fine Particles and
Mortality: An Extended Follow-Up of the Harvard Six Cities Study from 1974 to 2009."
Environ Health Perspect. Jul; 120(7):965-70.
National Research Council (NRC). 2002. Estimating the Public Health Benefits of Proposed Air
Pollution Regulations. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
Office of Management and Budget (OMB). 2003. Circular A-4: Regulatory Analysis.
Washington, DC. Available on the Internet at
http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/circulars/a004/a-4.html.
Roman, Henry A., Katherine D. Walker, Tyra L. Walsh, Lisa Conner, Harvey M. Richmond,
Bryan J. Hubbell, and Patrick L. Kinney. 2008. "Expert Judgment Assessment of the
Mortality Impact of Changes in Ambient Fine Particulate Matter in the U.S." Environ.
Sci. Techno!., 42(7):2268-2274.
Sisler, J.F. 1996. Spatial and seasonal patterns and long-term variability of the composition of
the haze in the United States: an analysis of data from the IMPROVE network. CIRA
Report, ISSN 0737-5352-32, Colorado State University.
U.S. Census Bureau. 2008a. Firm Size Data from the Statistics of U.S. Businesses: U.S. Detail
Employment Sizes: 2002.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency—Science Advisory Board (U.S. EPA-SAB). 2002.
Workshop on the Benefits of Reductions in Exposure to Hazardous Air Pollutants:
Developing Best Estimates of Dose-Response Functions An SAB Workshop Report of an
EPA/SAB Workshop (Final Report). EPA-SAB-EC-WKSHP-02-001. January. Available
on the Internet at
http://vosemite.epa.gov/sab%5CSABPRODUCT.NSF/34355712EC011A358525719AOO
5BF6F6/$File/ecwkshp02001%2Bappa-g.pdf.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). 1995. Regulatory Impact Analysis for the
Petroleum Refinery NESHAP. Revised Draft for Promulgation. Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, N.C. Available on the Internet at
http://www.reg-markets.org/admi n/authorpdfs/page.php?id=705.
7-31
-------
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). 2006. Air Quality Criteria for Ozone and
Related Photochemical Oxidants (Final). EPA/600/R-05/004aF-cF. Washington, DC:
U.S. EPA. February. Available on the Internet at
http://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/CFM/recordisplay.cfm?deid=149923.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). 2008a. Integrated Science Assessment for
Sulfur Oxides—Health Criteria (Final Report). National Center for Environmental
Assessment, Research Triangle Park, NC. September. Available on the Internet at
http://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/cfm/recordisplay.cfm?deid=l 98843.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). 2008c. Integrated Science Assessment for
Oxides of Nitrogen—Health Criteria (Final Report). National Center for Environmental
Assessment, Research Triangle Park, NC. July. Available at at
http ://cfpub. epa.gov/ncea/cfm/recordi splay, cfm? dei d= 19464 5.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). 2008d. Integrated Science Assessment for
Oxides of Nitrogen and Sulfur-Ecological Criteria National (Final Report}. National
Center for Environmental Assessment, Research Triangle Park, NC. EPA/600/R-08/139.
December. Available at http://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/cfm/recordisplay.cfm?deid=201485.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). 2009. Integrated Science Assessment for
Paniculate Matter (FinalReport). EPA-600-R-08-139F. National Center for
Environmental Assessment—RTF Division. December. Available on the Internet at
http://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/cfm/recordisplay.cfm?deid=216546.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). 2010a. Integrated Science Assessment for
Carbon Monoxide. National Center for Environmental Assessment, Research Triangle
Park, NC. EPA/600/R-09/019F. January. Available at
http://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/cfm/recordisplay.cfm?deid=218686.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). 201 Ob. Technical Support Document:
Summary of Expert Opinions on the Existence of a Threshold in the Concentration -
Response Function for PM2.s-related Mortality. Research Triangle Park, NC. June.
Available on the Internet at www.epa.gov/ttn/ecas/regdata/Benefits/thresholdstsd.pdf
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). 2010c. Valuing Mortality Risk Reductions
for Environmental Policy: A White Paper: SAB Review Draft. National Center for
Environmental Economics December. Available on the Internet at
http://vosemite.epa.gov/ee/epa/eerm.nsf/vwAN/EE-0563-l.pdf/$file/EE-0563-l.pdf
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). 2010e. Guidelines for Preparing Economic
Analyses. EPA 240-R-l0-001. National Center for Environmental Economics, Office of
Policy Economics and Innovation. Washington, DC. December. Available on the Internet
at http://yosemite.epa.gov/ee/epa/eerm.nsf/vwAN/EE-0568-50.pdf/$file/EE-0568-50.pdf.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). 201 la. The Benefits and Costs of the Clean
Air Act from 1990 to 2020. Office of Air and Radiation, Washington, DC. March.
http://www.epa.gov/air/sect812/febl 1/fullreport.pdf. Accessed March 30, 2011.
7-32
-------
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). 201 Ib. Regulatory Impact Analysis for the
Final Mercury and Air Toxics Standards. EPA-452/R-11-011. December. Available on
the Internet at http://www.epa.gov/ttn/ecas/regdata/RIAs/matsriafinal.pdf.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). 20 lie. 2005 National-Scale Air Toxics
Assessment. Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC.
March. Available on the Internet at http://www.epa.gov/ttn/atw/nata2005/.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). 201 Id. Regulatory Impact Analysis:
National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants for Industrial, Commercial,
and Institutional Boilers and Process Heaters. February. Available on the Internet at
http://www.epa.gov/ttnecasl/regdata/RIAs/boilersriafmal 110221 psg.pdf.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). 2012a. Regulatory Impact Analysis for the
Final Revisions to the National Ambient Air Quality Standards for Particulate Matter.
EPA-452/R-12-003. Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Health and
Environmental Impacts Division. December. Available at
http://www.epa.gov/pm/2012/finalria.pdf.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). 2012b. Regulatory Impact Analysis:
Petroleum Refineries New Source Performance Standards Ja. Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards, Health and Environmental Impacts Division. June. Available at
http://www.epa.gov/ttnecasl/regdata/RIAs/refmeries nsps ja final ria.pdf.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). 2013. Technical Support Document:
Estimating the Benefit per ton of Reducing PM2.s Precursors from 17 sectors. Office of
Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC. February.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency—Science Advisory Board (U.S. EPA-SAB). 2008.
Characterizing Uncertainty in Paniculate Matter Benefits Using Expert Elicitation.
EPA-COUNCIL-08-002. July. Available on the Internet at
http://vosemite.epa.gOv/sab/sabproduct.nsf/0/43B91173651AED9E85257487004EA6CB/
$File/EP A-COUNCIL-08-002-unsigned.pdf
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency—Science Advisory Board (U.S. EPA-SAB). 2000. An
SAB Report on EPA 's White Paper Valuing the Benefits of Fatal Cancer Risk Reduction.
EPA-SAB-EEAC-00-013. July. Available on the Internet at
http://vosemite.epa.gov/sab%5CSABPRODUCT.NSF/41334524148BCCD6852571A700
516498/$File/eeacfO 13 .pdf
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency—Science Advisory Board (U.S. EPA-SAB). 2004c.
Advisory Council on Clean Air Compliance Analysis Response to Agency Request on
Cessation Lag. EPA-COUNCIL-LTR-05-001. December. Available on the Internet at <
http://yosemite.epa.gov/sab/sabproduct.nsf/0/39F44B098DB49F3C85257170005293EO/$
File/council_ltr_05_001 .pdf
7-33
-------
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency—Science Advisory Board (U.S. EPA-SAB). 2008.
Benefits of Reducing Benzene Emissions in Houston, 1990-2020. EPA-COUNCIL-08-
001. July. Available at
http://vosemite.epa.gov/sab/sabproduct.nsf/D4D7EC9DAEDA8A548525748600728A83/
$File/EP A-COUNCIL-08-001-unsigned.pdf
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency—Science Advisory Board (U.S. EPA-SAB). 2009b.
Review of EPA 's Integrated Science Assessment for Particulate Matter (First External
Review Draft, December 2008). EPA-COUNCIL-09-008. May. Available on the Internet
at
http://vosemite.epa.gov/sab/SABPRODUCT.NSF/81e39f4c09954fcb85256ead006be86e/
73ACCA834AB44A10852575BD0064346B/$File/EPA-C ASAC-09-008-unsigned.pdf
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency—Science Advisory Board (U.S. EPA-SAB). 2009c.
Review of Integrated Science Assessment for Particulate Matter (Second External Review
Draft, July 2009). EPA-CASAC-10-001. November. Available on the Internet at
http://vosemite.epa.gov/sab/SABPRODUCT.NSF/81e39f4c09954fcb85256ead006be86e/
151BlF83B023145585257678006836B9/$File/EPA-C ASAC-10-001-unsigned.pdf
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency—Science Advisory Board (U.S. EPA-SAB). 2010a.
Review of EPA 's DRAFT Health Benefits of the Second Section 812 Prospective Study of
the Clean Air Act. EPA-COUNCIL-10-001. June. Available on the Internet at
http://vosemite.epa.gov/sab/sabproduct.nsf/9288428b8eeea4c885257242006935a3/59e06
b6c5ca66597852575e7006c5d09!OpenDocument&TableRow=2.3#2.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency—Science Advisory Board (U.S. EPA-SAB). 2011.
Review of Valuing Mortality Risk Reductions for Environmental Policy: A White Paper
(December 10, 2010). EPA-SAB-11-011 July. Available on the Internet at
http://vosemite.epa.gov/sab/sabproduct.nsf/298ElF50F844BC23852578DC0059A616/$F
ile/EPA-SAB-11 -011-unsigned.pdf.
7-34
-------
SECTION 8
COMPARISON OF MONETIZED BENEFITS AND COSTS
8.1 Summary
Because we are unable to monetize the co-benefits associated with reducing other
pollutants such as VOCs and CO, all monetized benefits reflect improvements in ambient PM2.5
concentrations. This results in an underestimate of the monetized benefits. Using a 3% discount
rate, we estimate the total monetized benefits of this proposed rule to be $1.8 billion to $4.2
billion in the 2014-2022 time frame (Table 8-1). We estimate the impacts for the time frame
from 2014 to 2022 in order to provide an average of annualized results for these options from the
time of rule promulgation in 2014 to the time of full implementation of both options, which
occurs by 2022. The variability of annual impacts for each option provides an appropriate
rationale for presenting impacts averaged over this time frame. Using a 7% discount rate, we
estimate the total monetized benefits to be $1.7 billion to $3.8 billion in the 2014-2022 time
frame. For the Alternative option, using a 3% discount rate, we estimate the total monetized
benefits of this proposed rule to be $1.9 billion to $4.2 billion in the 2014-2022 time frame
(Table 8-1). Using a 7% discount rate, we estimate the total monetized benefits under the
Alternative option to be $1.7 billion to $3.8 billion in the 2014-2022 time frame. The
annualized social costs are $15.7 million for the Proposed rule and $28.3 million for the
Alternative option in the 2014-2022 time frame (2010 dollars), and are $14.8 million for the
proposed rule and $26.9 million for the Alternative option, respectively, in the same time frame
using a 3% interest rate. The net benefits (benefits - costs) are therefore $1.8 billion to $4.1
billion at a 3% discount rate for the benefits and $1.7 billion to $3.7 billion at a 7% discount rate
for the Proposed option and $1.8 billion to $4.2 Billion at a 3% discount rate and $1.7 billion to
$3.8 billion at a 7% discount rate for the Alternative option in the 2014-2022 time frame. The
net benefits with annualized social costs at a 3% interest rate are essentially identical to those
shown above with costs at a 7% interest rate. Annual benefits were equal through all options
thereafter. All estimates are in 2010$. The benefits from reducing other air pollutants have not
been monetized in this analysis, including reducing nearly 3,200 tons of VOC, nearly 33,000
tons of CO, black carbon and several HAPs emissions such as formaldehyde and benzene among
others each year.
Figure 8-1 shows the full range of net benefits estimates (i.e., annual benefits minus
annualized costs) quantified in terms of PM2.5 benefits reflecting the average annual impact for
the 2014-2022 time frame of the analysis under the Proposed option, and Figure 8-2 shows the
-------
full range of net benefits estimates for the Alternative option. The net benefits reflect a 3%
discount rate for the benefits.
8-2
-------
Table 8-1. Summary of the Monetized Benefits, Social Costs, and Net Benefits for the
Proposed Residential Wood Heater NSPS in the 2014-2022 Time Frame
($2010 millions)3
Proposed Option
Total Monetized Benefits'3
Total Social Costs'
Net Benefits
Nonmonetized Benefits
3% Discount Rate
7% Discount Rate
$1,700 to $3,800
$16
$1,700 To $3,700
$1,800 to $4,200
$15
$1,800 to $4,100
32,600 tons of CO
3,200 tons of VOC
Reduced exposure to HAPs, including formaldehyde, benzene, and polycyclic
organic matter
Reduced Climate effects due to reductions in black carbon emissions
Reduced ecosystem effects
Reduced visibility impairment
Alternative Option
Total Monetized Benefits'3
Total Social Costs0
Net Benefits
Nonmonetized Benefits
$1,700 To $3,800
$28
$1,700 to $3,800
$1,900 to $4,200
$27
$1,800 to $4,200
32,900 tons of CO
3,200 tons of VOC
Reduced exposure to HAPs, including formaldehyde, benzene, and polycyclic
organic matter
Reduced Climate effects due to reductions in black carbon emissions
Reduced ecosystem effects
Reduced visibility impairment
All estimates are for the time frame from 2014 to 2022 inclusive and are rounded to two significant figures. These
results include units anticipated to come online and the lowest cost disposal assumption. Total annualized social
costs are estimated at a 7% interest rate.
The total monetized benefits reflect the human health benefits associated with reducing exposure to PM2 5 through
reductions of directly emitted PM2 5. It is important to note that the monetized benefits include many but not all
health effects associated with PM2 5 exposure. Benefits are shown as a range from Krewski et al. (2009) to
Lepeule et al. (2012). These models assume that all fine particles, regardless of their chemical composition, are
equally potent in causing premature mortality because the scientific evidence is not yet sufficient to allow
differentiation of effect estimates by particle type. Because these estimates were generated using benefit-per-ton
estimates, we do not break down the total monetized benefits into specific components here. See Figure 7-1 in this
RIA for an illustration of the breakdown, or the RIA for the final Cross-States Air Pollution Rule (EPA, 2011) for
more information.
The annualized social costs are $14.8 million for the Proposed Option and $26.9 million for the Alternative
Option at a 3% interest rate. We assume that annual compliance costs serve as an approximation of the social
costs of the proposal.
8-3
-------
$7,000,000,000
$6,000,000,000
$5,000,000,000
o $4,000,000,000
o
fM
,
o $3,000,000,000
Q
$2,000,000,000
$1,000,000,000
$0
Cost estimate (at 7% interest rate) combined with total monetized benefits
estimates derived from 2 epidemiology functions and 12 expert functions
Figure 8-1. Net Annual Benefits Range in 2014-2022 Time Frame for PM2.s Reductions
for the Proposed Option
8-4
-------
$7,000,000,000
$6,000,000,000
$5,000,000,000
o $4,000,000,000
o
fM
o $3,000,000,000
Q
$2,000,000,000
$1,000,000,000
$0
Cost estimate (at 7% interest rate) combined with total monetized benefits
estimates derived from 2 epidemiology functions and 12 expert functions
Figure 8-2. Net Annual Benefits Range in 2014-2022 Time Frame for PM2.5 Reductions
for the Alternative Option
Table 8-2 provides estimates of annualized costs and benefits for each affected source
category for the Proposed option, and Table 8-3 provides estimates of annualized costs and
benefits for each affected category for the Alternative option.
8-5
-------
Table 8-2. Compliance Costs, Monetized Benefits, and Monetized Net Benefits (2010
dollars) by Source Category in the 2014-2022 Time Frame—Proposal Option
Total Annualized Monetized Net
Costs Monetized Benefits Benefits ($ millions)
Source Category ($ millions) ($ millions)3
Wood stoves $4.2 $62 to $140 $62 to $140
Single burn rate stoves $0.9 $290 to $650 $290 to $650
Pellet stoves $3.5 $19 to $43 $19 to $43
Forced-air furnaces $2.3 $1,000 to $2,200 $1,000 to $2,200
Masonry heaters $0.3 N/A N/A
Hydronic heating systems $4.5 $480 to $1,100 $480 to $1,100
a All estimates are for the time frame from 2014 to 2022 inclusive. These results include units anticipated to come
online and the lowest cost disposal assumption. Total annualized costs are estimated at a 7% interest rate.
b Total monetized benefits are estimated at a 3% discount rate. The total monetized benefits reflect the human
health benefits associated with reducing exposure to PM2 5 through reductions of directly emitted PM2 5. It is
important to note that the monetized benefits include many but not all health effects associated with PM2 5
exposure. Benefits are shown as a range from Krewski et al. (2009) to Lepeule et al. (2012). These models assume
that all fine particles, regardless of their chemical composition, are equally potent in causing premature mortality
because the scientific evidence is not yet sufficient to allow differentiation of effect estimates by particle type.
Because these estimates were generated using benefit-per-ton estimates, we do not break down the total
monetized benefits into specific components here. See Figure7-l in this RIA for an illustration of the breakdown,
or the RIA for the final Cross-States Air Pollution Rule (EPA, 2011) for more information.
8-6
-------
Table 8-3. Compliance Costs, Monetized Benefits, and Monetized Net Benefits (2010
dollars) by Source Category in the 2014-2022 Time Frame—Alternative
Option
Source Category
Wood stoves
Single burn rate stoves
Pellet stoves
Forced-air furnaces
Masonry heaters
Hydronic heating systems
Total Annualized
Costs
($ millions)3
$8.1
$1.5
$6.2
$3.8
$0.3
$8.3
Monetized Benefits
($ millions)3
$52 to $120
$290 to $650
$$3 to $15
$1,000 to $2,300
N/A
$470 to $1,100
Monetized Net
Benefits
(Smillions)3
$40 to $110
$290 to $650
$$3 to $15
$1,000 to $2,300
N/A
$470 to $1,100
All estimates are for the time frame from 2014 to 2022 inclusive. These results include units anticipated to come
online and the lowest cost disposal assumption. Total annualized costs are estimated at a 7% interest rate.
Total monetized benefits are estimated at a 3% discount rate. The total monetized benefits reflect the human
health benefits associated with reducing exposure to PM2 5 through reductions of directly emitted PM2 5. It is
important to note that the monetized benefits include many but not all health effects associated with PM2 5
exposure. Benefits are shown as a range from Krewski et al. (2009) to Lepeule et al. (2012). These models assume
that all fine particles, regardless of their chemical composition, are equally potent in causing premature mortality
because the scientific evidence is not yet sufficient to allow differentiation of effect estimates by particle type.
Because these estimates were generated using benefit-per-ton estimates, we do not break down the total
monetized benefits into specific components here. See Figure7-l in this RIA for an illustration of the breakdown,
or the RIA for the final Cross-States Air Pollution Rule (EPA, 2011) for more information.
-------
SECTION 9
REFERENCES AND COST APPENDIX
Abt Associates, Inc. 2012. BenMAP User's Manual Appendices. Prepared for U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards. Research Triangle Park, NC. September.
Available on the Internet at http://www.epa.gov/air/benmap/models/BenMAPAppendicesOct2012.pdf.
Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (ATSDR). 1995. Toxicological Profile for Polycyclic
Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs). Atlanta, GA: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Public
Health Service. Available at: http://www.atsdr.cdc.gOv/ToxProfiles/TP.asp?id=122&tid=25
American Enterprise Institute (AEI) and Brookings Institution Joint Center for Regulatory Studies. 1986. NSPS
for Residential Wood Heaters. Regulatory Impact Analysis. RIN: 2060-AB68. Available at: http://reg-
markets.org/admin/authorpdfs/redirect-safelv.php?fname=../pdffiles/2060-AB68.RIA.pdf
Bernstein, M.A., and J. Griffin. 2005. Regional Differences in the Price-Elasticity of Demand for Energy. The
RAND Corporation. Available at: http://www.rand.org/pubs/technical reports/2005/RAND TR292.pdf.
Chernov, A. 2008. Masonry Heaters: Planning Guide for Architects, Home Designers, and builders.
Stovemaster Web site. Available at: http://www.stovemaster.com/files/masonry.pdf.
Dagan, D. January 7, 2005. "Warming Up to Stoves." CentralPenn Business Journal. Available at:
http://www.allbusiness.com/sales/1033217-l.html
Dun & Bradstreet (D&B). 2010. D&BMarketplace. A company information database searchable by NAICS
code. Accessed on July 15, 2010.
Fann, N., C.M. Fulcher, B.J. Hubbell. 2009. "The influence of location, source, and emission type in estimates
of the human health benefits of reducing a ton of air pollution." Air Qual Atmos Health 2:169-176.
Fann, N., K.R. Baker, and C.M. Fulcher. 2012. "Characterizing the PM2.s-related health benefits of emission
reductions for 17 industrial, area and mobile emission sectors across the U.S." Environment
International 4941-151.
Gwinn, M.R., J. Craig, D. A. Axelrad, R. Cook, C. Dockins, N. Fann, R. Fegley, D.E. Guinnup, G. Helfand, B.
Hubbell, S.L. Mazur, T. Palma, R.L. Smith, J. Vandenberg, and B. Sonawane. 2011. "Meeting report:
Estimating the benefits of reducing hazardous air pollutants—summary of 2009 workshop and future
considerations." Environ Health Perspect. Jan; 119(1): p. 125-30.
Industrial Economics, Inc (lEc). 2009. Section 812 Prospective Study of the Benefits and Costs of the Clean Air
Act: Air Toxics Case Study—Health Benefits of Benzene Reductions in Houston, 1990-2020. Final
Report, July 14, 2009. Available on the Internet at
http://www.epa.gov/air/sect812/dec09/812CAAA Benzene Houston Final Report July 2009.pdf.
Industrial Economics, Incorporated (lEc). 2006. Expanded Expert Judgment Assessment of'the Concentration-
Response Relationship Between PM2.5 Exposure and Mortality. Prepared for: Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC.
September. Available on the Internet at
http://www.epa.gov/ttn/ecas/regdata/Uncertainty/pm ee tsd expert interview summaries.pdf.
9-1
-------
Krewski D, Jerrett M, Burnett RT, Ma R, Hughes E, Shi, Y, et al. 2009. Extended follow-up and spatial analysis
of the American Cancer Society study linking paniculate air pollution and mortality. HEI Research
Report, 140, Health Effects Institute, Boston, MA.
Lepeule J, Laden F, Dockery D, Schwartz J 2012. "Chronic Exposure to Fine Particles and Mortality: An
Extended Follow-Up of the Harvard Six Cities Study from 1974 to 2009." Environ Health Perspect.
Jul;120(7):965-70.
National Research Council (NRC). 2002. Estimating the Public Health Benefits of Proposed Air Pollution
Regulations. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
Office of Management and Budget (OMB). 2003. Circular A-4: Regulatory Analysis. Washington, DC.
Available on the Internet at http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/circulars/a004/a-4.html.
Roman, Henry A., KatherineD. Walker, Tyra L. Walsh, Lisa Conner, Harvey M. Richmond, Bryan J. Hubbell,
and Patrick L. Kinney. 2008. "Expert Judgment Assessment of the Mortality Impact of Changes in
Ambient Fine Particulate Matter in the U.S." Environ. Sci. Techno!., 42(7):2268-2274.
Sisler, J.F. 1996. Spatial and seasonal patterns and long-term variability of the composition of the haze in the
United States: an analysis of data from the IMPROVE network. CIRAReport, ISSN 0737-5352-32,
Colorado State University.
U.S. Census Bureau. 2008a. Firm Size Data from the Statistics of U.S. Businesses: U.S. Detail Employment
Sizes: 2002.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency—Science Advisory Board (U.S. EPA-SAB). 2002. Workshop on the
Benefits of Reductions in Exposure to Hazardous Air Pollutants: Developing Best Estimates of Dose-
Response Functions An SAB Workshop Report of an EPA/SAB Workshop (Final Report). EPA-SAB-EC-
WKSHP-02-001. January. Available on the Internet at
http://vosemite.epa.gov/sab%5CSABPRODUCT.NSF/34355712EC011A358525719A005BF6F6/$File/
ecwkshp0200 l%2Bappa-g.pdf.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). 1995. Regulatory Impact Analysis for the Petroleum
Refinery NESHAP. Revised Draft for Promulgation. Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards,
Research Triangle Park, N.C. Available on the Internet at http://www.reg-
markets.org/admin/authorpdfs/page.php?id=705.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). 2006. Air Quality Criteria for Ozone and Related
Photochemical Oxidants (Final). EPA/600/R-05/004aF-cF. Washington, DC: U.S. EPA. February.
Available on the Internet at http://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/CFM/recordisplay.cfm?deid=149923.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). 2008a. Integrated Science Assessment for Sulfur Oxides—
Health Criteria (Final Report). National Center for Environmental Assessment, Research Triangle Park,
NC. September. Available on the Internet at
http://cfpub.epa. gov/ncea/cfm/recordisplay.cfm?deid=l 98843.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). 2008c. Integrated Science Assessment for Oxides of
Nitrogen—Health Criteria (FinalReport). National Center for Environmental Assessment, Research
Triangle Park, NC. July. Available at at http://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/cfm/recordisplay.cfm?deid= 194645.
9-2
-------
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). 2008d. Integrated Science Assessment for Oxides of
Nitrogen and Sulfur-Ecological Criteria National (Final Report). National Center for Environmental
Assessment, Research Triangle Park, NC. EPA/600/R-08/139. December. Available at
http://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/cfm/recordisplay.cfm?deid=201485.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). 2009. Integrated Science Assessment for Particulate Matter
(FinalReport). EPA-600-R-08-139F. National Center for Environmental Assessment—RTF Division.
December. Available on the Internet at http://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/cfm/recordisplay.cfm?deid=216546.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). 2010a. Integrated Science Assessment for Carbon
Monoxide. National Center for Environmental Assessment, Research Triangle Park, NC. EPA/600/R-
09/019F. January. Available at http://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/cfm/recordisplay.cfm?deid=218686.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). 201 Ob. Technical Support Document: Summary of Expert
Opinions on the Existence of a Threshold in the Concentration-Response Function for PM2.5-related
Mortality. Research Triangle Park, NC. June. Available on the Internet at
www.epa.gov/ttn/ecas/regdata/Benefits/thresholdstsd.pdf
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). 2010c. Valuing Mortality Risk Reductions for
Environmental Policy: A White Paper: SAB Review Draft. National Center for Environmental
Economics December. Available on the Internet at http://vosemite.epa.gov/ee/epa/eerm.nsf/vwAN/EE-
0563-1.pdf/$file/EE-0563-l.pdf
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). 2010e. Guidelines for Preparing Economic Analyses. EPA
240-R-10-001. National Center for Environmental Economics, Office of Policy Economics and
Innovation. Washington, DC. December. Available on the Internet at
http://vosemite.epa.gov/ee/epa/eerm.nsf/vwAN/EE-0568-50.pdf/$file/EE-0568- 50.pdf
U. S. Environmental Protection Agency (U. S. EPA). 2011 a. The Benefits and Costs of the Clean Air Act from
1990 to 2020. Office of Air and Radiation, Washington, DC. March.
http://www.epa.gov/air/sect812/febl 1/fullreport.pdf. Accessed March 30, 2011.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). 201 Ib. Regulatory Impact Analysis for the Final Mercury
and Air Toxics Standards. EPA-452/R-11-011. December. Available on the Internet at
http://www. epa.gov/ttn/ecas/regdata/RIAs/matsriafinal .pdf
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). 20 lie. 2005 National-Scale Air Toxics Assessment. Office
of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC. March. Available on the Internet at
http://www.epa.gov/ttn/atw/nata2005/.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). 201 Id. Regulatory Impact Analysis: National Emission
Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants for Industrial, Commercial, and Institutional Boilers and
Process Heaters. February. Available on the Internet at
http://www. epa.gov/ttnecasl/regdata/RIAs/boilersriafmal 110221 psg.pdf.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). 2012a. Regulatory Impact Analysis for the Final Revisions
to the National Ambient Air Quality Standards for Particulate Matter. EPA-452/R-12-003. Office of Air
Quality Planning and Standards, Health and Environmental Impacts Division. December. Available at
http://www. epa.gov/pm/2012/fmalria.pdf.
9-3
-------
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). 2012b. Regulatory Impact Analysis: Petroleum Refineries
New Source Performance Standards Ja. Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Health and
Environmental Impacts Division. June. Available at
http://www.epa.gov/ttnecasl/regdata/RJAs/refmeries nspsja final ria.pdf.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). 2013. Technical Support Document: Estimating the Benefit
per ton of Reducing PM2.5 Precursors from 17 sectors. Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards,
Research Triangle Park, NC. February.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency—Science Advisory Board (U.S. EPA-SAB). 2008. Characterizing
Uncertainty in Paniculate Matter Benefits Using Expert Elicitation. EPA-COUNCIL-08-002. July.
Available on the Internet at
http://yosemite.epa.gOv/sab/sabproduct.nsf/0/43B91173651 AED9E85257487004EA6CB/$File/EPA-
COUNCIL-0 8 -002-unsi gned. pdf
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency—Science Advisory Board (U.S. EPA-SAB). 2000. An SAB Report on
EPA's White Paper Valuing the Benefits of Fatal Cancer Risk Reduction. EPA-SAB-EEAC-00-013.
July. Available on the Internet at
http://vosemite.epa.gov/sab%5CSABPRODUCT.NSF/41334524148BCCD6852571A700516498/$File/e
eacf013.pdf.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency—Science Advisory Board (U.S. EPA-SAB). 2004c. Advisory Council
on Clean Air Compliance Analysis Response to Agency Request on Cessation Lag. EPA-COUNCIL-
LTR-05-001. December. Available on the Internet at <.
http://yosemite.epa.gov/sab/sabproduct.nsf/0/39F44B098DB49F3C85257170005293EO/$File/council_lt
r_05_001.pdf
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency—Science Advisory Board (U.S. EPA-SAB). 2008. Benefits of Reducing
Benzene Emissions in Houston, 1990-2020. EPA-COUNCIL-08-001. July. Available at
http://yosemite. epa.gov/sab/sabproduct.nsf/D4D7EC9D AEDA8A548525748600728A83/$File/EPA-
COUNCIL-08-001-unsigned.pdf
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency—Science Advisory Board (U.S. EPA-SAB). 2009b. Review of EPA 's
Integrated Science Assessment for Paniculate Matter (First External Review Draft, December 2008).
EPA-COUNCIL-09-008. May. Available on the Internet at
http://vosemite.epa.gov/sab/SABPRODUCT.NSF/81e39f4c09954fcb85256ead006be86e/73ACCA834A
B44A10852575BD0064346B/$File/EPA-C ASAC-09-008-unsigned.pdf
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency—Science Advisory Board (U.S. EPA-SAB). 2009c. Review of
Integrated Science Assessment for Paniculate Matter (Second External Review Draft, July 2009). EPA-
CASAC-10-001. November. Available on the Internet at
http://vosemite.epa.gov/sab/SABPRODUCT.NSF/81e39f4c09954fcb85256ead006be86e/151BlF83B02
3145585257678006836B9/$File/EP A-CASAC-10-001-unsigned.pdf.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency—Science Advisory Board (U.S. EPA-SAB). 2010a. Review of EPA 's
DRAFT Health Benefits of the Second Section 812 Prospective Study of the Clean Air Act. EPA-
COUNCIL-10-001. June. Available on the Internet at
http://vosemite.epa.gov/sab/sabproduct.nsf/9288428b8eeea4c885257242006935a3/59e06b6c5ca665978
52575e7006c5d09!OpenDocument&TableRow=2.3#2.
9-4
-------
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency—Science Advisory Board (U.S. EPA-SAB). 2011. Review of Valuing
Mortality Risk Reductions for Environmental Policy: A White Paper (December 10, 2010). EPA-SAB-
11-011 July. Available on the Internet at
http://vosemite.epa.gov/sab/sabproduct.nsf/298ElF50F844BC23852578DC0059A616/$File/EPA-SAB-
11-011 -unsigned.pdf.
Fann, N., C. M. Fulcher, and B. J. Hubbell. 2009. "The Influence of Location, Source, and Emission Type in
Estimates of the Human Health Benefits of Reducing a Ton of Air Pollution." Air Quality, Atmosphere,
and Health 2:169-11'6.
Fireplaces & Woodstoves. 2010. "Masonry Heaters." http://www.fireplacesandwoodstoves.com/indoor-
fireplaces/masonry-fireplaces.aspx.
Frost & Sullivan. 2010. Project: Market Research and Report on North American Residential Wood Heaters,
Fireplaces, and Hearth Heating Products Market (P.O. # PO1-IMP402-F&S). Prepared for EC/R.
Fullerton, D., and G. Metcalf. 2002. "Tax Incidence." In A. Auerbach and M. Feldstein, eds., Handbook of
Public Economics, Vol. 4, Amsterdam: Elsevier.Hearth, Patio, and Barbeque Association (HPBA).
2010a. "Comments for the Small Business Advocacy Review (SBAR) Panel, Regarding the Revision of
New Source Performance Standards for New Residential Wood Heaters." Comments submitted to EPA
on September 12,2010.
Gwinn, M.R., J. Craig, D.A. Axelrad, R. Cook, C. Dockins, N. Fann, R. Fegley, D.E. Guinnup, G. Helfand, B.
Hubbell, S.L. Mazur, T. Palma, R.L. Smith, J. Vandenberg, andB. Sonawane. 2011. "Meeting report:
Estimating the benefits of reducing hazardous air pollutants—summary of 2009 workshop and future
considerations." Environ Health Perspect. 119(1): p. 125-30.
Hearth, Patio, and Barbeque Association (HPBA). 2010b. "Fireplace Insert Fact Sheet." Available at:
http://static.hpba.org/fileadmin/factsheets/product/FS Fireplacelnsert.pdf.
Hearth, Patio, and Barbecue Association (HPBA). 2010c. "Outdoor Heating Options." Available at:
http://www.hpba.org/consumers/outdoor-living/outdoor-heating-options.
Houck, J. 2009. "Let's Not Forget about Coal." Hearth & Home. December. Available at:
http://www.hearthandhome.com/articles.html.
Houck, J., and P. Tiegs. 2009. "There's a Freight Train Comin'." Hearth & Home. December. Available at:
http://www.hearthandhome.com/articles.html.
Industrial Economics, Inc (ffic). 2006. Expanded Expert Judgment Assessment of'the Concentration-Response
Relationship Between PM2.5 Exposure and Mortality. Prepared for the U.S. EPA, Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards, September. Available at:
http://www.epa.gov/ttn/ecas/regdata/Uncertainty/pm ee report.pdf.
Industrial Economics, Inc (ffic). 2009. Section 812 Prospective Study of the Benefits and Costs of the Clean Air
Act: Air Toxics Case Study—Health Benefits of Benzene Reductions in Houston, 1990-2020. Final
Report, July 14, 2009.
http://www.epa.gov/air/sect812/dec09/812CAAA+Benzene Houston Final Report July 2009.pdf.
Accessed March 30, 2011.
9-5
-------
Kochi, I., B. Hubbell, and R. Kramer. 2006. "An Empirical Bayes Approach to Combining Estimates of the
Value of Statistical Life for Environmental Policy Analysis." Environmental and Resource Economics
34:385-406.
Krewski D, Jerrett M, Burnett RT, Ma R, Hughes E, Shi, Y, et al. 2009. Extended follow-up and spatial analysis
of the American Cancer Society study linking paniculate air pollution and mortality. HEI Research
Report, 140, Health Effects Institute, Boston, MA.
Laden, F., J. Schwartz, F.E. Speizer, and D.W. Dockery. 2006. Reduction in Fine Particulate Air Pollution and
Mortality. American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine. 173: 667-672.
Landsburg, S.H. 2005. Price Theory and Applications. 6th Ed. Thomson South Western.Mason, OH.
Mankiw, N.G. 1998. Principles of Economics. Orlando, Fl: Dryden Press.
Masonry Heater Association of North America (MHA). 1998. MHA Masonry Heater Definition. Available at:
http://mha-net.org/docs/def-mha.htm.
Morgenstern, R. D., W. A. Pizer, and J. S. Shih. 2002. "Jobs versus the Environment: An Industry-Level
Perspective." Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 43(3):412-436. Available at
http://ac.els-cdn.com/S009506960191191X/l-s2.0-S009506960191191X-main.pdf? tid=6bc8845e-
7c56-lle2-84a7-00000aab0f26&acdnat=1361472319 4fe7ef315e9b2f8fc064cOa767895205
(subscription required).
Mrozek, J.R., and L.O. Taylor. 2002. "What Determines the Value of Life? A Meta-Analysis." Journal of
Policy Analysis and Management 21(2):253-270.
National Research Council (NRC). 2002. Estimating the Public Health Benefits of Proposed Air Pollution
Regulations. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
Nicholson, Walter. 1998. Microeconomic Theory. Orlando: The Dryden Press.
Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management (NESCAUM). 2006. Assessment of Outdoor Wood-
Fired Boilers. March, 2006 (Revised June, 2006). Available at:
http://www.nescaum.org/documents/assessment-of-outdoor-wood-fired-boilers.
Office of Management and Budget (OMB). 2003. Circular A-4: Regulatory Analysis. Washington, DC.
Available on the Internet at http://www. whitehouse.gov/omb/circulars/a004/a-4.html.
Pope, C.A, III, R.T. Burnett, M.J. Thun, E.E. Calle, D. Krewski, K. Ito, and G.D. Thurston. 2002. "Lung
Cancer, Cardiopulmonary Mortality, and Long-term Exposure to Fine Parti culate Air Pollution."
Journal of the American Medical Association 287:1132-1141.
Roman, Henry A., Katherine D. Walker, Tyra L. Walsh, Lisa Conner, Harvey M. Richmond, Bryan.J. Hubbell,
and Patrick L. Kinney. 2008. "Expert Judgment Assessment of the Mortality Impact of Changes in
Ambient Fine Parti culate Matter in the U.S. Environmental Science & Technology 42(7):2268-2274.
Seaton, T. 2010. "Masonry Heater Industry Analysis: Residential Sold Fuel Burning Appliance SBREFA
Process." Industry comments submitted to EPA on September 12, 2010.
9-6
-------
Sisler, J.F. 1996. Spatial and seasonal patterns and long-term variability of the composition of the haze in the
United States: an analysis of data from the IMPROVE network. CIRAReport, ISSN 0737-5352-32,
Colorado State University.
The Risk Management Association. 2008. Annual Statement Studies, Financial Ratio Benchmarks 2008-2009.
Risk Management Association, Philadelphia: 2008.
U.S. Census Bureau. 2007. Survey of Plant Capacity: 2006. "Table la. Full Capacity Utilization Rates by
Industry Fourth Quarter 2002-2006." U.S. Census Bureau: Washington DC. Report No. MQ-C1(06).
Available at: http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/capacity/historical data/index.html.
U.S. Census Bureau. 2009. American Community Survey: 2006-2008. Available at:
http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/DatasetMainPageServlet? program=ACS&submenId=& lang+en&
ts=. U.S. Census Bureau. 2010a. American Fact Finder. Sector 31: Annual Survey of Manufactures:
General Statistics: Statistics for Industry Groups and Industries: 2008 and 2007. Available at:
http://factfinder.census.gov. Accessed July 20, 2010.
U.S. Census Bureau. 2010b. American Fact Finder. Sector 23: EC0723SG01: Construction: Summary Series:
General Summary: Detailed Statistics for Establishments: 2007. Available at:
http://factfinder.census.gov. Accessed July 20, 2010.
U.S. Census Bureau. 2010c. American Fact Finder. Sector 42: EC0742A1: Wholesale Trade: Geographic Area
Series: Summary Statistics for the United States, States, Metro Areas, Counties, and Places: 2007.
Available at: http://factfmder.census.gov. Accessed July 20, 2010.
U.S. Census Bureau. 2010d. American Fact Finder. Sector 44: EC0744A1: Retail Trade: Geographic Area
Series: Summary Statistics for the United States, States, Metro Areas, Counties, and Places: 2007.
Available at: http ://factfmder. censu s. gov. Accessed July 20, 2010.
U.S. Census Bureau. 2010e. Census Regions and Divisions of the United States. Available at:
http ://www. censu s. gov/geo/www/u s regdi v. pdf. Accessed September 12, 2010.
U.S. Census Bureau. 2010f North American Industrial Classification System [NAICS] Code Definitions Web
site. Available at: http://www.census.gov/eos/www/naics/.
U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). 2009. "Your Home: Selecting Heating Fuel and System Types."
ENERGYSTAR Web site. U.S. Department of Energy. Available at:
http://www.energysavers.gov/vour home/space heating cooling/index.cfm/mvtopic=12330..
U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). 2010. "Your Home: Masonry Heaters." ENERGYSTAR Web site. U.S.
Department of Energy. Available at:
http://www.energysavers.gov/your home/space heating cooling/index.cfm/mvtopic=12570.
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). 2011. Residential Energy Consumption Survey: 2009. Available
at: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/recs/recspubuse05/pubuse05.html.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency—Science Advisory Board (U.S. EPA-SAB). 2007. SAB Advisory on
EPA 's Issues in Valuing Mortality Risk Reduction. EPA-SAB-08-001. October. Available on the
Internet at
.
9-7
-------
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency—Science Advisory Board (U.S. EPA-SAB). 2009a. Review of EPA 's
Integrated Science Assessment for Paniculate Matter (First External Review Draft, December 2008).
EPA-COUNCIL-09-008. May. Available on the Internet at
.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency—Science Advisory Board (U.S. EPA-SAB). 2009b. Consultation on
EPA's Particulate Matter National Ambient Air Quality Standards: Scope and Methods Plan for Health
Risk and Exposure Assessment. EPA-COUNCIL-09-009. May. Available on the Internet at
.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency—Science Advisory Board (U.S. EPA-SAB). 2010. Review of EPA 's
DRAFT Health Benefits of the Second Section 812 Prospective Study of the Clean Air Act. EPA-
COUNCIL-10-001. June. Available on the Internet at
http://vosemite.epa.gOv/sab/sabproduct.nsf/0/72D4EF A39E48CDB28525774500738776/$File/EPA-
COUNCIL-10-001 -unsigned.pdf
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). 2002. "Profile of the Pulp and Paper Industry." Sector Notebook
Project. Available at:
http://www.epa.gov/Compliance/resources/publications/assistance/sectors/notebooks/index.html.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). 2006a. Final Guidance EPA Rulewriters: Regulatory Flexibility
Act as Amended by the Small Business and Regulatory Enforcement Fairness Act.
http://www.epa.gov/sbrefa/documents/rfaguidancel 1 -00-06.pdf.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). 2006b. Regulatory Impact Analysis. 2006 National Ambient Air
Quality Standards for Particulate Matter. Chapter 5. Available at:
http://www.epa.gov/ttn/ecas/regdata/RIAs/Chapter%205—Benefits.pdf.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). 2008a. Integrated Science Assessment for Sulfur Oxides—Health
Criteria (Final Report). National Center for Environmental Assessment, Research Triangle Park, NC.
Available at: http://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/cfm/recordisplay.cfm?deid= 198843.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). 2008b. Integrated Science Assessment for Sulfur Oxides—
Health Criteria (Final Report). National Center for Environmental Assessment, Research Triangle Park,
NC. Available at http://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/cfm/recordisplay.cfm?deid=198843.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). 2008 c. Integrated Science Assessment for Oxides of
Nitrogen—Health Criteria (FinalReport). National Center for Environmental Assessment, Research
Triangle Park, NC. July. Available at at http://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/cfm/recordisplay.cfm?deid= 194645.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). 2008d. Integrated Science Assessment for Oxides of
Nitrogen and Sulfur-Ecological Criteria National (Final Report). National Center for Environmental
Assessment, Research Triangle Park, NC. EPA/600/R-08/139. December. Available at
http://cfpub.epa. gov/ncea/cfm/recordisplay.cfm?deid=201485.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). 2009a. Regulatory Impact Analysis: National Emission
Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants from the Portland Cement Manufacturing Industry. Office of
Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC. April. Available on the Internet at
.
9-8
-------
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). 2009b. Integrated Science Assessment for Paniculate
Matter (FinalReport). EPA-600-R-08-139F. National Center for Environmental Assessment—RTF
Division. December. Available on the Internet at
.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). 2009c. Subpart AAA-Standards of Performance for New
Residential Wood Heaters. Discussion Draft. Available at: http://www.hpba.org/admin/NSPS-Review-
Document.pdf.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). 2010a. Integrated Science Assessment for Carbon Monoxide.
National Center for Environmental Assessment, Research Triangle Park, NC. EPA/600/R-09/019F.
January. Available at: http://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/cfm/recordisplay.cfm?deid=218686.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). 2010b. Final Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA) for the SO2
National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards,
Research Triangle Park, NC. June. Available at:
http://www. epa.gov/ttn/ecas/regdata/RIAs/fso2rial 00602full.pdf.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). 2010c. Guidelines for Preparing Economic Analyses. EPA240-
R-l 0-001. Washington, DC: National Center for Environmental Economics, Office of Policy Economics
and Innovation. Available at: http://yosemite.epa.gov/ee/epa/eed.nsf/pages/guidelines.html.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). 2010d. Lowest Measured Level (LML) Assessment for Rules
without Policy-Specific Air Quality Data Available: Technical Support Document. Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC. July. Available at:
http://www.epa.gov/ttn/ecas/regdata/Benefits/thresholdstsd.pdf.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). 2010e. Regulatory Impact Analysis for the Proposed Federal
Transport Rule. Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC. July.
Available at: http://www.epa.gov/ttn/ecas/regdata/RIAs/proposaltrria final.pdf.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). 2010f Regulatory Impact Analysis for the SO2NAAQS. Office
of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC. June. Available at:
http://www. epa.gov/ttn/ecas/regdata/RIAs/fso2rial 00602full.pdf.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). May 2004. Final Regulatory Analysis: Control of Emissions
from Nonroad Diesel Engines. EPA420-R-04-007. Washington, DC: EPA. http://www.epa.gov/nonroad-
diesel/2004fr/420r04007.pdf.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). 201 Ob. Technical Support Document: Summary of Expert
Opinions on the Existence of a Threshold in the Concentration-Response Function for PM2.5-related
Mortality. Research Triangle Park, NC. June. Available on the Internet at
www.epa.gov/ttn/ecas/regdata/Benefits/thresholdstsd.pdf
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). 2010c. Guidelines for Preparing Economic Analyses. EPA
240-R-l 0-001. National Center for Environmental Economics, Office of Policy Economics and
Innovation. Washington, DC. December. Available on the Internet at
.
9-9
-------
U. S. Environmental Protection Agency (U. S. EPA). 2011 a. The Benefits and Costs of the Clean Air Act from
1990 to 2020. Office of Air and Radiation, Washington, DC. March.
http://www.epa.gov/air/sect812/feb 11/fullreport.pdf. Accessed March 30, 2011.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). 201 Ib. Regulatory Impact Analysis for the Final Transport
Rule. Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC. June. Available at
http://www.epa.gov/airtransport/pdfs/FinalRIA.pdf.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. 2006. Regulatory Impact Analysis, 2006 National Ambient Air Quality
Standards for Paniculate Matter, Chapter 5. Available at
.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. 2008a. Regulatory Impact Analysis, 2008 National Ambient Air Quality
Standards for Ground-level Ozone, Chapter 6. Available at
.
U.S. Housing and Urban Development (HUD). 2008. American Housing Survey for the United States. Multiple
Years. Table 1A-5. Available at: http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/ahs/nationaldata.html.
U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA), Office of Advocacy. May 2012. A Guide for Government
Agencies, How to Comply with the Regulatory Flexibility Act, Implementing the President's Small
Business Agenda and Executive Order 13272. Available at
http://www.sba.gov/sites/default/files/rfaguide 0512 O.pdf.
U. S. Small Business Administration (SBA). 2013. Table of Small Business Size Standards Matched to North
American Industry Classification System Codes. Effective July 22. 2013.
http://www.sba.gov/sites/default/files/files/Size Standards Table(l).pdf.
Viscusi, V.K., and J.E. Aldy. 2003. "The Value of a Statistical Life: A Critical Review of Market Estimates
throughout the World." Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 27(l):5-76.
Wade, S.H. 2003. "Price Responsiveness in the AEO2003 NEMS Residential and Commercial Buildings Sector
Models." http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/analysispaper/elasticitv/pdf/buildings.pdf
Wood Heat Organization. 2010. "Fireplace Inserts: The Cure for Cold Fireplaces." Available at:
http://www. woodheat. org/technologv/inserts.htm.
9-10
-------
APPENDIX
Documentation of Costs for Residential Wood Heaters NSPS Proposal
This appendix of the RIA documents the estimated nationwide cost impacts on manufacturers of
emission reduction options being considered for residential wood heaters as part of the New Source
Performance Standards (NSPS) review of residential wood heaters. The underlying cost assumptions for two
options are summarized herein - the proposed NSPS ("Proposal") and an alternative approach ("Alternative")
which differ in the number of stepped emission limits and in the phased-in compliance dates.
I. Estimated Research and Development (R&D) Costs
A. Residential Wood Heaters - Room Heaters & Central Heaters
We have heard various estimates of the costs to bring a wood heater from conception to completion,
from $300,000 for a single model to $1,360,000 for a 4-firebox model line. A recent Hearth and Home article
estimated the total cost to bring a model from conception to market as $645,000 to $750,000 for steel stoves and
over $1 million for cast-iron, enameled wood stoves. The authors indicated that costs would decrease for
separate models in the same line by up to 25%. Based on this information, we estimate that a 4-model steel line
would cost up to $328,125 per model to develop. These costs include marketing, design, developing first
generation, second generation and prototype units; NSPS and safety testing, equipment tooling, etc. The
manufacturer supplying these figures for the article estimated that the NSPS and safety testing component of
these costs would constitute $40,000 per model. This manufacturer said that development time is 12 to 14
months for non-catalytic heaters and 10 to 12 months for catalytic heaters.104
Another manufacturer estimated costs of new product development, including design, prototype
development, testing, tooling equipment and other manufacturing changes, marketing support, materials,
training, and education to be in excess of $300,000 over an 8- to 12-month schedule for a relatively
uncomplicated product. Costs will increase for products that have more sophisticated controls. 105 One other
manufacturer estimated that their typical model development costs are around $200,000/model.106
Two manufacturers suggested a 14- to 18-month timeframe is required to develop a new firebox, but
added that it will take from 5 to 6 years of intensive engineering and R&D efforts to have a model line
consisting of 4 boxes ready-for-manufacture. They agreed that knowledge of the process obtained during each
104 James E. Houck and Paul Tiegs. There's a Freight Train Comin'. Hearth and Home. December 2009.
105 Comments from United States Stove Company, Small Entity Representative. July 13, 2010.
106 Confidential Business Information.
9-11
-------
firebox development will shorten (somewhat) the time necessary, but not enough to consider within a guiding
framework. These manufacturers also provided estimated development costs for a 4-box model line, presented
in Table A-l.107
Table A-l. Example of Manufacturers' Estimates of Costs to Develop Model Line (4 Fireboxes)
Cost
Component
Salaries
Laboratory
Equipment
Prototypes
Test Fuel*
Testing
Services*
Outside
Consultants
Re-tooling
Marketing
Total
Estimated
Costs
$850,000
$50,000
$25,000
$45,000*
$150,000*
$160,000
$120,000
$25,000
$1,425,000
Notes
Using 2-full time experienced employees to bring the products to market, salaries
and benefits are estimated at $160,000 per year for at least 5.3 years. Tasks include
design, prototyping, testing, production-line integration, and marketing.
hi order to accelerate R&D and avoid validating each result with independent
testing labs (too costly for most manufacturers), new testing equipment will need to
be purchased in order to sample flue gases, measure test load weight loss, record
data automatically, and analyze flue gas composition.
Numerous prototypes will be needed until the final product can be approved. For
each firebox, an estimated 8 prototypes will be needed, at a cost of $700 each.
Numerous samples of various components will also have to be purchased from
vendors.
Each test costs at least $50 in fuel (assuming cribs are used), including waste. And
estimated 150 tests will have to be conducted for each firebox for a total of $7,500,
or $30,000 for a 4-firebox model line based on crib testing.*
Testing services for emissions, efficiency, and safety are estimated to last
approximately 3 weeks for each firebox. At an average of $1,500 per day plus
travel expenses, this amounts to approximately $25,000 for each firebox, or
$100,000 for a 4-firebox model line based on crib testing.*
The average manufacturer will need outside help for design and testing. Testing
equipment, knowledge of the test standard, and general guidance is normally
offered by outside consultants (not necessarily certified EPA test labs). The average
manufacturer will need approximately 300 hours of consulting services per year
($40,000) for 4 years.
For each firebox, new molds and jigs will need to be purchased or produced. Re-
tooling charges will reach an estimated $30,000 per firebox, or $120,000 for a 4-
firebox model line.
New pictures will need to be taken and all the current marketing material, including
web sites and owner's manuals, will have to be updated.
Equal to $356,250/model
*Note: The costs originally provided by industry for this table were presumed to be based on crib wood testing, not
both crib wood and cord wood testing. Therefore we increased the industry -based "Test Fuel" cost by 50% (to the
$45,000 shown above) as well as the industry -based "Testing Services" cost by 50% (to the $150,000 shown above)
in order to estimate the additional cost to test with both crib wood and cord wood.
For this analysis, we used the costs provided in the Table A-l example, scaled to a single model and
spread over a 6-year model development timeframe. We prepared an annualized R&D cost estimate by
separating cost elements into direct annual costs (salaries) vs. indirect annual costs (laboratory equipment,
retooling and other capital costs). We estimated annual capital costs during the amortized R&D cost period as
107
NSPS Review/Revision, and Impact on Our Companies: A Manufacturer's Position Statement. Prepared by Stove Builder
International and United States Stove Company. June 2010.
9-12
-------
the fraction that the indirect costs (IAC) are of the Total Annual Cost, approximately 34% annually. Ongoing
costs such as taxes, overhead, and other routine expenses would be incurred regardless of the NSPS standard,
and are not included in this analysis. Table A-2 shows the estimated annualized cost of $63,850 per model,
assuming an amortization period of 6 years and an interest rate of 7%.
Table A-2. Annual Cost Summary: Development of 4 Model Fireboxes1'2
Direct Annual Costs (DAC)
Operator labor
Outside Consultants
Total Direct Costs (DC)
$141,667
$26,667
$168,333
Annual salary cost from Table 1, spread over 6 years.
Annual outside consultant cost from Table 1, spread over 6
years.
Indirect Annual Costs (IAC)
Laboratory Equipment1
Re-tooling1
Other Capital Costs1'2
Total Indirect Costs (IAC)
Total Annual Cost
Total Annual Cost
$10,490
$25,175
$51,400
$87,065
$255,399
$63,850
The laboratory equipment cost of $50,000 was amortized over
6 years at an interest rate of 7%.
The re-tooling cost of $120,000 was amortized over 6 years at
an interest rate of 7%.
Other capital costs include costs for prototypes ($25,000), test
fuel ($30,000+$15,000), testing services ($100,000+$50,000),
and marketing ($25,000) and were amortized over 6 years at an
interest rate of 7%.
Annual cost for development of 4 model fireboxes.
Average annual cost per firebox model.
1 An amortization period of 6 years for laboratory equipment, retooling and other capital costs was chosen
based on industry's estimate that approximately 5 to 6 years of R&D are required to bring a product to market.
2 To estimate the additional cost to test with both cord wood and crib wood, the test fuel industry estimate of
$30,000 based on crib only was increased by $15,000 and the testing services industry estimate of $100,000
based on crib only (which covered not only emissions testing but also efficiency and safety testing) was
increased by $50,000.
B. Masonry Heaters
Masonry heaters manufacturing cost impacts vary by the type of producer and the type of certification
method. According to one manufacturer108, the masonry heater industry in the U.S. is dominated by the Finnish
firm Tulikivi, which manufactures and imports about half of the U.S. masonry heater units installed yearly
through its network of installing distributors. The same manufacturer said that the second largest producer is a
'Comments: Residential Solid Fuel Burning Appliance SBREFA Process. Product Category: Masonry Heaters. July 13, 2010.
Timothy Seaton, Timely Construction, Inc. p. 5.
9-13
-------
Canadian firm, Temp-Cast. The remainder of the industry is "dozens" of small producers, with probably fewer
than 100 (or at least fewer than 200) generating any masonry revenue at all. Some commercial operations sell
core units and/or design kits based on their own design, and other sell units they license from other U.S. or
foreign companies. Finally, some units are custom built. Based on this information, we assumed that 50
percent of masonry heaters sold per year in the U.S. are Tulikivi models and 35 percent are sold by other large
manufacturers. The remaining 15 percent of units are sold by independent small volume contractors.
There are three major cost components to consider in evaluating the potential cost impacts of the
proposed NSPS: research and development (R&D), certification testing, and licensing fees for use of a
computer software package approved for use in certifying a model design. According to information provided
by one manufacturer109, R&D costs for a masonry heater may be estimated at $250,000 (compared to the
$340,000 for other wood heater appliance models noted in Table A-l). We assumed R&D costs were the same
as for other wood heater appliances - that is, $63,850 annually for a 6-year R&D amortization period. For
facilities conducting R&D, these costs include the costs for certification testing. We estimate that the cost of
testing a heater design in an EPA accredited lab to be approximately $10,000.no
This cost analysis also makes use of a unique software package based on a European masonry heater
design standard. This standard has been verified in the laboratory and under field conditions to produce
masonry heaters that would meet the proposed NSPS emission limits. The software produces for printout a
certification for a given design application and the design definition documents as well as operating instructions
customized to the given design, so that the software verification and certification record is created for and
attached to the design. The resulting documents can be submitted as part of the certification application. The
cost of this software to the user is approximately 1,000 Euros (approximately $1,500) for the package with a
300 Euro (approximately $450) annual fee that commences in the second year following purchase.1U
II. Estimated Manufacturer Cost Impacts
A. NSPS Options
We developed two primary options to evaluate the cost impacts of implementing new or revised NSPS
standards for the residential wood heating appliance industry - namely, the proposed approach ("Proposal") and
109 Comments: Residential Solid Fuel Burning Appliance SBREFA Process. Product Category: Masonry Heaters. July 13, 2010.
Timothy Seaton, Timely Construction, Inc. p. 14.
110 Letter to Lucinda Power, EPA, from Brian Klipfel, Fire Works Masonry. September 10, 2010.
111 E-mail from Timothy Seaton, Timely Construction Company, to Gil Wood, USEPA. April 21, 2011.
9-14
-------
an alternative approach ("Alternative"). As described in the unit cost memorandum112, the cost analyses assume
specified phase-in schedules which vary between the Proposal and Alternative.
The Proposal represents a scenario where all types of appliances (except masonry heaters) would be
required to meet a specified Step 1 emission limit upon promulgation in 2014 and then a stricter Step 2 emission
limit five years later in 2019. Under this Proposal, large manufacturers of masonry heaters would also be
required to meet a specified Step 1 emission limit upon promulgation in 2014, while small custom
manufacturers would not be required to meet this Step 1 emission limit until 2019. There is no Step 2 emission
limit for masonry heaters being proposed. The Alternative approach represents a scenario where all types of
appliances (except masonry heaters) would be required to meet a specified Step 1 emission limit upon
promulgation in 2014 and then an interim Alternative Step 2 emission limit three years after promulgation in
2017, followed by a stricter Alternative Step 3 emission limit eight years after promulgation in 2022. Masonry
heaters would be regulated the same way under this Alternative approach as under the Proposal, as explained
above. Note that the Proposal Step 2 emission limit is the same as the Alternative Step 3 emission limit, but the
compliance dates differ for this stricter limit (i.e., 2019 versus 2022). These implementation periods represent a
tentative schedule and are subject to change.
Following is a summary of the NSPS implementation assumptions for each appliance type, grouped
according to NSPS Subparts. This summary describes the specific emission limits under the Proposal and the
Alternative approach.
Subpart AAA ("room heaters"):
1. Adjustable burn rate, single burn rate, and pellet stoves: Proposal: Step 1 limit of 4.5 g/hrupon
promulgation in 2014; and Step 2 limit of 1.3 g/hr five years after promulgation in 2019.
Alternative: Step 1 limit of 4.5 g/hr upon promulgation in 2014; Step 2 limit of 2.5 g/hr three years
after promulgation in 2017; and Step 3 limit of 1.3 g/hr eight years after promulgation in 2022.
Notes on appliances already meeting these limits: The Step 1 limit is the 1995 Washington State
standard for non-catalytic stoves; the Alternative Step 2 limit is the 1995 Washington State standard
for catalytic stoves; and the proposed Step 2 (Alternative Step 3) limit is already met by the top
performing catalytic, non-catalytic and pellet stove models, according to industry data.113 Although
previously unregulated and a less developed technology than adjustable burn rate stoves, single burn
rate stove designs have been undergoing R&D in anticipation of the proposed NSPS and cleaner
designs are nearly market-ready.114
Under both the Proposal and the Alternative, adjustable burn rate wood stoves (both catalytic and
non-catalytic), pellet stoves, and single burn rate stoves would face a Step 1 standard that is based on
the current Washington state standards of 4.5 g/hr emissions for non-catalytic stoves. Industry data10
112 Memo to Gil Wood, USEPA, from Jill Mozier, EC/R, Inc. Unit Cost Estimates of Residential Wood Heating Appliances.
February 21,2013.
113 Letter to Gil Wood, EPA, from Robert Ferguson, Ferguson, Andors, & Company. April 30, 2010. EC/R made minor changes to
the data set used in this analysis. See Memo from Jeff Harris, EC/R to Project File. May 3, 2010. Changes to "Final HPB A
Heater Database" from 2/25/10 Version.
114 2/8/13 telephone discussion between Gil Wood, USEPA, and a manufacturer of single burn rate stoves.
9-15
-------
from 2010 indicate that 90% (130 out of 145 catalytic, non-catalytic and pellet stoves combined)
already meet this limit, as shown in Table A-l of Attachment A to the manufacturer's cost memo.
The tables in that attachment show the emissions performance of wood stoves that are currently
certified for which we have reproducible emissions data. This list was initially prepared by the
Hearth, Patio and Barbecue Association (HPBA), and includes the results of an effort to delete
models that are no longer manufactured and remove duplicate certifications.10 Communication from
HPBA confirmed that there were 110 non-catalytic wood stoves and 15 catalytic wood stoves being
manufactured in 2010 by 34 manufacturers or importers of EPA certified wood heaters.115 We
believe that manufacturers will focus on existing models that meet the Washington State limits in
order to comply with the Step 1 standard.
Furthermore, the HPBA data10 indicates that 35% (52 out of 145 catalytic, non-catalytic and pellet
stoves combined) already meet the interim Alternative Step 2 limit of 2.5 g/hr. Finally, this same
dataset indicates that 10% (14 out of 145 catalytic, non-catalytic and pellet stoves combined) already
meet the strictest proposed Step 2 standard (which is also the Alternative Step 3 standard). Stoves
meeting these limits are shown in Table A-l of Attachment A, in which green rows indicate
compliance with proposed Step IIAlternative Step 3, green and blue rows indicate compliance with
interim Alternative Step 2, and green, blue, and orange rows indicate compliance with Step 1.
Attachment A also includes tables showing this same color-coded compliance for the individual
catalytic (Table A-2) and pellet stove (Table A-3) datasets.
Based on this emission data for adjustable burn rate and pellet stoves, for our cost analysis we
assumed that while major R&D efforts are not needed to meet Step 1, R&D efforts would be
required to meet the strictest standard.
Single burn rate stoves would also be subject to these stepped standards under Subpart AAA. Given
the relative lack of previous regulation of these appliance types in the United States, we believe that
manufacturers will have to redesign all such models to meet the proposed emission limits, and
reflected that major re-design effort in our cost estimates.
Our specific cost and implementation assumptions under both the Proposal and Alternative scenarios
are noted below in Sections B & D.
Subpart QQQQ ("central heaters"):
2. Hydronic heaters (both outdoor and indoor): Proposal: Step 1 limit of 0.32 Ib/mm BTU heat output
upon promulgation in 2014; and Step 2 limit of 0.06 Ib/mm BTU heat output five years after
promulgation in 2019. Alternative: Step 1 limit of 0.32 Ib/mm BTU heat output upon promulgation
in 2014; Step 2 limit of 0.15 Ib/mm BTU heat output three years after promulgation in 2017; and
Step 3 limit of 0.06 Ib/mm BTU heat output eight years after promulgation in 2022.
Notes on appliances already meeting these limits: The Step 1 limit is the EPA "Phase 2 "
voluntary program limit already met by 36 hydronic heater models (27 cord wood and 9 pellet
models) built by 17 U.S. manufacturers; the Alternative Step 2 limit is already met by 11 hydronic
heater models (6 cord wood and 5 pellet models) built by 6 U.S. manufacturers; and the proposed
Step 2 (Alternative Step 3) limit is already met by 4 hydronic heater models (2 cord wood and 2
pellet models) built by 2 U.S. manufacturers116, as well as over 100 European manufacturers per test
method EN 303-05.117
115Letter to Lucinda Power, EPA, from John Crouch, HPBA. September 12, 2010.
116 See list of cleaner hydronic heaters participating in EPA's voluntary program at http://www.epa.gov/burnwise/owhhlist.html
117 European Wood-Heating Technology Survey: An Overview of Combustion Principles and the Energy and Emissions Performance
Characteristics of Commercially Available Systems in Austria, Germany, Denmark, Norway, and Sweden; Final Report; Prepared
for the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority; NYSERDA Report 10-01; April 2010.
9-16
-------
Based on the EPA's experience with the hydronic heater market through the voluntary program, we
understand that it is dominated by a few manufacturers in terms of the bulk of sales, and these
manufacturers have qualifying units at some or all of the stepped emission limits, as noted above.
Therefore, on a sales-weighted basis, only a percentage of the hydronic heater models currently sold
would be required to undertake R&D to meet Step 1, with higher percentages needing R&D to meet
the interim Alternative Step 2 and the proposed Step 2/Alternative Step 3 limits. However, we
assumed that all hydronic heater models would begin R&D in 2013 to meet the stricter phased-in
standards. Our specific cost and implementation assumptions under both the Proposal and
Alternative scenarios are noted below in Sections B & D.
3. Forced Air Furnaces: Proposal: Step 1 limit of 0.93 Ib/mm BTU heat output upon promulgation in
2014; and Step 2 limit of 0.06 Ib/mm BTU heat output five years after promulgation in 2019.
Alternative: Step 1 limit of 0.93 Ib/mm BTU heat output upon promulgation in 2014; Step 2 limit of
0.15 Ib/mm BTU heat output three years after promulgation in 2017; and Step 3 limit of 0.06 Ib/mm
BTU heat output eight years after promulgation in 2022.
4. Notes on appliances already meeting these limits: The Step 1 limit is based on test data from
development of Canadian standard B415.1-10118 and conversation with industry regarding cleaner
forced air furnace models currently being tested in R&D119. Forced air furnace designs able to meet
the Alternative Step 2 and proposed Step 2 (Alternative Step 3) limits may be based on technology
transferred from hydronic heater designs. Given the relative lack of previous regulation of these
appliance types in the United States, we assume in our cost analysis that manufacturers will have to
redesign all such models to meet the proposed emission limits, and reflect that major re-design effort
in our cost estimates. Our specific cost and implementation assumptions under both the Proposal
and Alternative scenarios are noted below in Sections B & D.
Subpart RRRR (masonry heaters):
5. Masonry Heaters: Proposal / Alternative (same): Step 1 limit of 0.32 Ib/mm BTU heat output upon
promulgation in 2014 for large manufacturers (defined as manufacturers constructing > 15 masonry
heaters per year), with a 5-year (2019) small volume manufacturer compliance extension (for
companies constructing < 15 units/year). No other phased-in limits are being proposed.
Notes on appliances already meeting these limits: Based on data submitted by the Masonry
Heater Association120, over 10 models already meet this limit. The masonry heater market is
dominated by a few large manufacturers and many small custom manufacturers, and these segments
of the market will take different approaches to come into compliance based on their models (i.e., a
couple models will undergo R&D, while others who already meet the standards will certify through
a conventional test or through a software product). Our cost analysis segmented the market
accordingly and based our cost estimates on specific assumptions relevant to each segment of the
market. These specific cost and implementation assumptions (which do not differ for the Proposal
and Alternative) are explained below in Sections C & D.
B. Estimated Manufacturer Costs - General Approach
118 CSA B415.1-10, Performance Testing of Solid-Fuel-Burning Heating Appliances. Appendix D. March 2010.
119 2/8/13 telephone discussion between Gil Wood, USEPA, and a manufacturer of forced air furnaces.
120 Attachment to 3/25/2011 e-mail from Timothy Seaton of Timely Construction to Gil Wood and Mike Toney of USEPA
9-17
-------
Manufacturers have told us that is takes several years to develop new models. We have spread the
annualized R&D costs (shown in Table A-2) over 6 years to represent the time and funds needed to develop the
complying models. For the purposes of our cost estimate, we have assumed that when the NSPS revisions are
proposed, all manufacturers will begin serious efforts to develop complying models, although for many
manufacturers we also know that they have been involved in intensive R&D efforts in anticipation of the
proposed rule.
We estimated both the average annual cost to manufacturers of each appliance type and then extended
those costs to nationwide total annual costs. The basic components to each manufacturer's estimated annual cost
are:
6. Annualized R&D cost;
7. Ongoing annual Certification cost; and
8. Ongoing annual Reporting and Record Keeping cost.
The Annualized R&D costs (shown in Table A-2, and based on the Table A-l costs) are by far the
largest cost component and we have applied these costs to most models in our cost analysis - especially to
models in previously unregulated appliance categories - in order to present a reasonable estimate of the costs.
For example, as noted above, instead of estimating the number of hydronic heater models that already meet a
specific limit and will therefore merely need to certify their emissions rather than undergo R&D, we instead
assumed that 100% of hydronic heater models will undergo R&D beginning in 2013. We made similar
assumptions for single burn rate stoves and forced air furnaces.
Under the Proposal scenario, one round of R&D is assumed - beginning in 2013 and ending in 2018 - in
order to meet the proposed Step 2 limit. Under the Alternative scenario, two rounds of R&D are assumed for all
appliances except masonry heaters (for which there is only one standard with no additional phased-in standards
to meet). Under the Alternative scenario, the first R&D round begins in 2013 and the second round begins in
2017 (which causes overlapping R&D costs in years 2017 and 2018 in this analysis) - in order to meet the
interim Alternative Step 2 limit in 2017 and the Alternative Step 3 limit in 2022. We also assumed that of the
models undergoing the first round of R&D costs, 80% of these models undergo the second round of R&D costs
in the Alternative scenario (i.e., we assumed that only 20% of models achieve the strictest limit in the first
round of R&D).
Furthermore, for appliances like single burn rate stoves and forced air furnaces, which were previously
unregulated (and also were not pushed technologically by a voluntary program, as hydronic heaters were), we
have conservatively doubled R&D costs during years 2013 and 2014. This doubling of R&D cost estimates is to
9-18
-------
represent an intensification of the R&D efforts to meet the Step 1 limit and begin development of models to
meet the stricter stepped limits - R&D efforts which industry has indicated are already ongoing.121
Note that all manufacturers, except for wood stoves that are subject to the current 1988 NSPS, will face
ongoing certification costs above baseline conditions. However, in the 2013 to 2018 timeframe under the
Proposal scenario and in the 2013 to 2022 timeframe under the Alternative scenario, we have incorporated these
costs as part of the overall R&D expenditures. After 2018 under the Proposal scenario and after 2022 under the
Alternative scenario, the ongoing certification costs will be the only NSPS related costs faced by manufacturers
besides ongoing reporting and recordkeeping costs.
Regarding certification costs, we have assumed a cost of $10,000 per model for pellet stoves, single
burn rate stoves and masonry heaters; and we have assumed a cost of $20,000 per model for hydronic heaters
and forced air furnaces.122 We have spread these costs out over the 5 year certification life, assuming annual
certification costs for one-fifth of the models.
For example, pellet stoves will incur certification costs in advance of complying with more stringent
limits. As explained in Section A and shown in Table A-3 of Attachment A of the manufacturer's cost memo,
approximately 30 percent of existing pellet stove models are expected to comply with the proposed Step 2 and
Alternative Step 3 standard. However, in order to be sold, these stove models would now be required to
demonstrate compliance with an emissions limit, incurring an upfront cost of $10,000 per model to become
certified. We have assumed that one fifth of the pellet stove models will certify in any given year.
We based reporting and recordkeeping (R&R) costs on the annual average costs derived from
development of the Information Collection Request (ICR) supporting statements123. These are annual estimates
of the ongoing R&R burden to manufacturers associated with the Proposal and Alternative scenarios. (We do
not expect the R&R burden to differ substantially between the two scenarios.)
The certification and reporting and recordkeeping costs were estimated to be incurred by manufacturers
for the full 20-year model design lifespan.124 Under the Proposal, we estimated costs from 2013 through 2038 -
that is, 20 years after the 2019 compliance year marking the beginning of the model lifespan designed to meet
the Proposal Step 2 limit. Under the Alternative, we estimated costs from 2013 through 2041 - that is, 20 years
after the 2022 compliance year marking the beginning of the model lifespan designed to meet the Alternative
Step 3 limit.
121 2/8713 telephone discussion between Gil Wood, USEP A, and a manufacturer of forced air furnaces and single burn rate stoves.
122 Conversation with Dennis Brazier, Central Boiler. August 9, 2010.
123 ICR Supporting Statements for the Proposed NSPS Subparts have not been finalized as of the date of this memo.
124 Memo to Gil Wood, USEP A, from Jill Mozier, EC/R, Inc. Unit Cost Estimates of Residential Wood Heating Appliances.
February 21,2013.
9-19
-------
C. Estimated Manufacturer Costs - Masonry Heaters
As noted above, we addressed masonry heaters in a way which segmented the costs in keeping with the
masonry heater market. There are three scenarios for potential cost impacts for large masonry heater
manufacturers. In the case of Tulikivi and some U.S. firms, e.g., Timely Construction, these companies have
already invested in R&D in order to gain access to U.S. markets which restrict sales (e.g., Colorado) of
uncertified units. These companies will face testing costs only, with an assumed total of nine tests conducted
prior to the proposed compliance date (i.e., to certify a total of nine model lines). For purposes of our cost
analysis, we assumed that two additional companies will conduct R&D to develop two new models each to
meet the proposed NSPS. Finally, we have been told that Tulikivi will use the software certification approach
to certify up to eight additional models. We also project that the remaining 15 percent of custom built units will
use the software certification approach to certify compliance with the proposed NSPS starting in 2013
(estimated date of the proposed standards) and that they will continue to renew their license in the following
years.
As explained in the unit cost memo21, we used data in the Frost & Sullivan Market (F&S) report125 on
2008 masonry heater shipments by product category and F&S revenue forecasts which incorporated the weak
economy in years 2009 and 2010, to calculate the reduced number of shipments in years 2009 and 2010. For
years 2011 through 2038 (for the Proposal) and 2011 through 2041 (for the Alternative) estimated shipments are
based on a forecasted revenue growth rate of 2.0%, in keeping with the average annual growth in real GDP
predicted by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.126 For masonry heaters, our estimate of the number of
custom built models is based on the average number of models sold per year in the 15 percent model category
(i.e., 85 per year). We assumed each custom manufacturer would sell 2 models per year, for a total of 42
manufacturers participating in the software certification option.
Under both the Proposal and Alternative scenarios, most sales-weighted masonry heater units face a
2014 Step 1 compliance date with no other phased-in limits. However, under both the Proposal and Alternative
scenarios, companies that sell fewer than 15 units per year have until 2019 to come into compliance. We have
assumed that the large manufacturers will comply by 2014 for the units that only require testing and/or software
certification, with those expenditures incurred annually starting in 2013. We also assumed that the 15 percent
of custom built units will comply by 2019, but will begin certifying their units using the software certification
approach as early as 2013, as noted above, as a selling point for their services. For those companies that start
R&D when the NSPS is proposed in 2013, we have assumed that they will spread these costs over the 6-year
period from 2013 through 2018 for the four models affected, under both the Proposal and Alternative scenarios.
125 Market Research and Report on North American Residential Wood Heaters, Fireplaces, and Hearth Heating Products Market.
126 2013 Global Outlook projections prepared by the Conference Board in November 2012; http://www.conference-
Prepared by Frost & Sullivan. April 26, 2010. P. 31 -32.
2013 Global Outlook projections p
board.org/data/globaloutlook.cfm
9-20
-------
D. Estimated Manufacturer Costs - Specific Assumptions & Resulting Costs
Table A-3a shows the estimated annual cost per manufacturer under the Proposal for all appliances.
Table A-3b shows the nationwide annual costs under the Proposal. The footnotes associated with the tables (not
included in the tables shown on the following pages) help better explain the details we assumed for the cost
analysis and are listed below. For the Proposal, the footnoted assumptions underlying Tables A-3a and A-3b
are:
1. Nationwide Annual Cost assumes R&D investment is amortized over 6 years (2013 through 2018).
Ongoing certification costs are incurred through 2038 (based on a model brought to market in 2019
with a lifespan of 20 years), except for woodstoves which already incur certification costs under the
exi sting NSPS.
2. Since certification is required every 5 years (except for the software certification option for masonry
heaters), it is assumed that certification costs will be spread out so that 1/5 of the models certify each
year.
3. This analysis considers additional costs resulting from the proposed NSPS. For wood stoves, the
analysis assumes that 5% meet Step 2 already so that 95% of the models will undergo re-design to
meet the Step 2 level. The costs modeled for years 2020 through 2038 exclude the ongoing
certification costs and ongoing reporting and recordkeeping costs incurred by wood stove
manufacturers who already had to certify and report under the existing NSPS.
4. For pellet stoves, the analysis assumes that 30% meet Step 2 already so that 70% of models undergo
R&D re-design to meet Step 2. The R&D budget includes certification costs. The analysis also
assumes that the 30% of the pellet stove models which already meet Step 2 will certify in an ongoing
basis starting in 2013. The analysis reflects the certification costs beginning in 2013 for the 30% of
models meeting Step 2, and beginning in 2019 for the remaining 70% of models which underwent
R&D re-design.
5. Based on conversations with industry (2/2013), single burn rate stoves and forced air furnaces have
been undergoing R&D prior to 2013 to develop cleaner models. Because these devices were
previously unregulated and may need to transfer technology from adjustable burn rate stoves and
hydronic heaters respectively, this analysis assumes that these efforts will intensify in 2013 and
2014. Therefore estimated R&D costs are doubled in 2013 and 2014 in order to meet the 2014 Step 1
standard while also beginning R&D to develop models to meet the more stringent 2019 Step 2
standard.
6. For single burn rate stoves, forced air furnaces, and hydronic heating systems, the analysis assumes
that only a small percentage meet Step 2 so that approximately 100% of the models undergo R&D
re-design to meet Step 2. The R&D budget includes certification costs. Ongoing certification costs
for the re-designed models are reflected in this analysis beginning in 2019.
7. For masonry heaters, the cost analysis assumes one round of R&D to meet 0.32 Ib/mmBTU standard
(no additional stepped standards, although large manufacturers will be required to meet the limit in
2014, while small volume manufacturers will be given a 5 year extension until 2019 to meet the
limit). For masonry heater manufacturers using software certification, the analysis assumes the
purchased software will be used for certifying all models developed by that manufacturer.
9-21
-------
8. Reporting and recordkeeping costs (R&R) [for all appliances but masonry heaters] are based on the
annual average costs derived from the ICR and are estimates of the ongoing R&R burden to
manufacturers associated with the proposed NSPS. The annual average nationwide R&R burden
estimated to manufacturers for Subpart AAA is $440,443, and for Subpart QQQQ is $119,249.
These R&R costs do not include the R&R burden to laboratories; the annual average nationwide
R&R burden incurred by laboratories subject to requirements under Subpart AAA is estimated to be
$75,745, and incurred by laboratories subject to requirements under Subpart QQQQ is estimated to
be $50,496.
9. [Masonry Heater] Reporting and recordkeeping costs (R&R) are based on the annual average costs
derived from the ICR and are estimates of the ongoing R&R burden to manufacturers associated
with the proposed NSPS. The annual average nationwide R&R burden estimated to manufacturers
for Subpart RRRR is $98,788 for small/custom masonry heater manufacturers and $25,929 for large
masonry heater manufacturers. These R&R costs do not include the R&R burden to laboratories; the
annual average nationwide R&R burden incurred by laboratories subject to requirements under
Subpart RRRR is estimated to be $37,872.
Table A-4a shows the estimated annual cost per manufacturer under the Alternative approach for all
appliances. Table A-4b shows the nationwide annual costs under the Alternative. For the Alternative approach,
the footnoted assumptions underlying Tables 4a and 4b (where different from the footnotes listed above) are:
1. Nationwide Annual Cost assumes R&D investment is amortized over 6 years (round one from 2013
through 2018 and round two from 2017 through 2022). Ongoing certification costs are incurred
through 2041 (based on a model brought to market in 2022 with a lifespan of 20 years), except for
woodstoves which already incur certification costs under the existing NSPS.
2. (Same as above)
3. This analysis considers additional costs resulting from the proposed NSPS. For wood stoves, the
analysis assumes that 5% meet Step 3 already so that 95% of the models will undergo re-design in
round one, and 80% of those 95% will require another round of R&D to meet the Step 3 level. The
costs exclude the ongoing certification costs and ongoing reporting and recordkeeping costs incurred
by wood stove manufacturers who already had to certify and report under the existing NSPS.
4. For pellet stoves, the analysis assumes that 30% meet Step 3 already so that 70% of models undergo
re-design in round one, and 80% of those 70% require another round of R&D to meet Step 3. The
R&D budget includes certification costs. The analysis also assumes that the 30% of the pellet stove
models which already meet Step 3 will certify in an ongoing basis starting in 2013.
5. Based on conversations with industry (2/2013), single burn rate stoves and forced air furnaces have
been undergoing R&D prior to 2013 to develop cleaner models. Because these devices were
previously unregulated and may need to transfer technology from adjustable burn rate stoves and
hydronic heaters respectively, this analysis assumes that these efforts will intensify in 2013 and
2014. Therefore estimated R&D costs are doubled in 2013 and 2014 in order to meet the 2014 Step 1
standard while also beginning R&D to develop models to meet the more stringent 2017 Step 2 and
2022 Step 3 standards.
9-22
-------
For single burn rate stoves, forced air furnaces, and hydronic heating systems, the analysis assumes
that only a small percentage meet Step 3 so that approximately 100% of the models undergo re-
design in round one, and 80% require another round of R&D to meet Step 3. The R&D budget
includes certification costs.
(Same as above)
(Same as above)
(Same as above)
9-23
-------
Table A-3a. Average Annual Cost per Manufacturer under the Proposal
NSPSSubpart
AM: Room Heaters
ApplianceType
Wood Stoves (R&D)3
Pel let Stoves (R&D, R&R)4'8
Pellet Stoves (certification)4
Single Burn RateStoves (R&D, R&R, cert.)5'6'8
#
Manufac-
turers
34
29
29
3
n
Models
125
125
125
20
Average Annual Cost per Manufacturer based on 6-year R&D round (2013-2018) to meet Step 1 and Step 2 limits
with ongoing certification costs (through 2038)
2013
(Step 1
compliance)
2014
$223,004 $223,004
$199,681 $199,681
$2,586
$862,204
Forced Air Furnaces (R&D, R&R, cert.)5'6'8 7 50
Hydronic Heating Systems (R&D, R&R, cert.)6'8 30 120
$917,148
$2,586
$862,204
$917,148
$258,204 $258,204
2015
$223,004
$199,681
$2,586
$436,539
$461,079
$258,204
2016
$223,004
$199,681
$2,586
$436,539
$461,079
$258,204
2017
$223,004
$199,681
$2,586
$436,539
$461,079
2018
$223,004
$199,681
$2,586
$436,539
$461,079
$258,204 $258,204
(Step 2 2020
compliance) through
2019 20382
$0 $0
$7,031
$8,621
$24,208
$33,582
$18,806
$7,031
$8,621
$24,208
$33,582
$18,806
QQQQ: Central Heaters
RRRR- Masnnrv HpatprQ
MH - large companies (R&D, R&R, cert.)9
MH - large companies (R&R, cert.)9
MH - large companies (R&R, software cert.)7'9
2_
3_
1
4
9
8
MH - small companies (R&R, software cert.)7'9 42 85
$130,169
$9,704
$11,378
$3,852
$130,169
$9,704
$10,328
$2,802
$130,169
$9,704
$10,328
$2,802
$130,169
$9,704
$10,328
$2,802
$130,169
$9,704
$10,328
$2,802
$130,169
$9,704
$10,328
$2,802
$6,469
$9,704
$10,328
$2,802
$6,469
$9,704
$10,328
$2,802
24
-------
Table A-3b. Nationwide Annual Costs under the Proposal
NSPSSubpart
AAA: Room Heaters
QQQQ: Central Heaters
RRRR: Masonry Heaters
Annua 1 Cost of the Rul e
Appliance Type
Wood Stoves (R&D)3
Pellet Stoves (R&D, R&R)4'8
Pellet Stoves (certification)4
Single Burn Rate Stoves (R&D, R&R, cert.)5' 6'8
#
Manufac- #
turers Models
34 125
29 125
29 125
3 20
NationwideAnnual Costs1
2013
$7,582,146
$5,790,753
$75,000
$2,586,611
(Step 1
compliance)
2014
$7,582,146
$5,790,753
$75,000
$2,586,611
2015
$7,582,146
$5,790,753
$75,000
$1,309,618
2016
$7,582,146
$5,790,753
$75,000
$1,309,618
2017
$7,582,146
$5,790,753
$75,000
$1,309,618
2018
$7,582,146
$5,790,753
$75,000
$1,309,618
(Step 2
compliance)
2019
$0
$203,909
$250,000
$72,625
2020
through
20382
$0
$203,909
$250,000
$72,625
r $16,034,510 r $16,034,510 * $14,757,517 * $14,757,517 * $14,757,517 * $14,757,517 * $526,534 * $526,534
Forced Air Furnaces (R&D, R&R, cert.)5' 6'8 7\ 50
Hydronic Heating Systems (R&D, R&R, cert.)6'8
30 120
$6,420,038 1 $6,420,038
$7,746,133| $7,746,133
$3,227,5561 $3,227,5561 $3,227,556
$7,746,133| $7,746,133| $7,746,133
$3,227,5561 $235,0731 $235,073
$7,746,133| $564,17e| $564,176
' $14,166,171 r $14,166,171 r $10,973,689 * $10,973,689 * $10,973,689 * $10,973,689 * $799,249 ' $799,249
MH - large companies (R&D, R&R, cert.)9
MH - large companies (R&R, cert.)9
MH- large companies (R&R, software cert.)7'9
2 4
3J 9
1 8
MH -small companies (R&R, softwarecert.)7'9 42 85
$260,337
$29,112
$11,378
$161,788
$260,337
$29,112
$10,328
$117,688
$260,337
$29,112
$10,328
$117,688
$260,337
$29,112
$10,328
$117,688
$260,337
$29,112
$10,328
$117,688
$260,337
$29,112
$10,328
$117,688
$12,939
$29,112
$10,328
$117,688
$12,939
$29,112
$10,328
$117,688
$462,616 $417,466 $417,466 $417,466 $417,466 $417,466 $170,067 $170,067
$30,663,297
$30,618,147
$26,148,672
$26,148,672
$26,148,672
$26,148,672
$1,495,850
$1,495,850
25
-------
Table A-4a. Average Annual Cost per Manufacturer under the Alternative Approach
NSPSSubpart
AAA: Room Heaters
Appliance Type
Wood Stoves (R&D)3
Pellet Stoves (R&D, R&R)4'8
Pellet Stoves (certification)4
Single Burn Rate Stoves (R&D, R&R, cert.)5'6'8
#
Manufac-
turers
34
29
29
3
#
Models
125
125
125
20
Average Annual Cost per Manufacturer based on initial 6-year R&D round (2013-2018) and second R&D round (2017-2022) to meet Step 3 level
with ongoing certification costs (through 2041)
2013
$223,004
$199,681
$2,586
$862,204
Forced Air Furnaces (R&D, R&R, cert.)5'6'8
Hydronic Heating Systems (R&D, R&R, cert.)6'8
7 50
30 120
$917,148
$258,204
(Step 1
compliance)
2014 2015 2016
$223,004 $223,004 $223,004
$199,681 $199,681 $199,681
$2,586 $2,586 $2,586
$862,204 $436,539 $436,539
$917,148 $461,079 $461,079
$258,204 $258,204 $258,204
(Step 2
compliance)
2017
$394,080
$347,471
$2,586
$763,085
$810,949
$454,131
2018 2019 2020 2021
$394,080
$347,471
$2,586
$763,085
$171,076
$154,821
$3,793
$340,087
$171,076
$154,821
$3,793
$340,087
$171,076
$154,821
$3,793
$340,087
$810,949
$454,131
$360,594
$201,933
$360,594
$201,933
$360,594
$201,933
(Step 3
compliance)
2022
$171,076
$154,821
$3,793
$340,087
2023
through
2041 2
$0
$7,031
$8,621
$24,208
$360,594
$201,933
$33,582
$18,806
QQQQ: Central Heaters
MH - large companies (R&D, R&R, cert.)9
MH - large companies (R&R, cert.)9
MH - large companies (R&R, software cert.)7'9
MH - small companies (R&R, software cert.)7'9
2 4
3 9
ll 8
42 85
$130,169
$9,704
$11,378
$3,852
$130,169
$9,704
$10,328
$2,802
$130,169
$9,704
$10,328
$2,802
$130,169
$9,704
$10,328
$2,802
$130,169
$9,704
$10,328
$2,802
$130,169
$9,704
$10,328
$2,802
$6,469
$9,704
$10,328
$2,802
$6,469
$9,704
$10,328
$2,802
$6,469
$9,704
$10,328
$2,802
$6,469
$9,704
$10,328
$2,802
$6,469
$9,704
$10,328
$2,802
RRRR: Masonry Heaters | | | | | | | |
26
-------
Table A-4b. Nationwide Annual Costs under the Alternative Approach
NSPSSubpart
AAA: Room Heaters
QQQQ: Central Heaters
RRRR: Masonry Heaters
Annual Cost of the Rule
ApplianceType
Wood Stoves (R&D)3
PelletStoves (R&D, R&R)4'8
PelletStoves (certification)4
Single Burn Rate Stoves (R&D, R&R, cert.)5' 6'8
#
Manufac-
turers
34
29
29
3
#
Models
125
125
125
20
Nationwide Annual Costs1
2013
$7,582,146
$5,790,753
$75,000
$2,586,611
2014
$7,582,146
$5,790,753
$75,000
$2,586,611
2015
$7,582,146
$5,790,753
$75,000
$1,309,618
2016
$7,582,146
$5,790,753
$75,000
$1,309,618
2017
$13,398,730
$10,076,657
$75,000
$2,289,254
2018
$13,398,730
$10,076,657
$75,000
$2,289,254
2019
$5,816,584
$4,489,813
$110,000
$1,020,261
2020
$5,816,584
$4,489,813
$110,000
$1,020,261
2021
$5,816,584
$4,489,813
$110,000
$1,020,261
2022
$5,816,584
$4,489,813
$110,000
$1,020,261
$16,034,510 $16,034,510 $14,757,517 $14,757,517 $25,839,640 $25,839,640 $11,436,657 $11,436,657 $11,436,657 $11,436,657
Forced Air Furnaces (R&D, R&R, cert.)5-6-8
7
Hydronic Heating Systems (R&D, R&R, cert.)6-8 30
50
120
$6,420,038
$7,746,133
$6,420,038
$7,746,133
$3,227,556
$7,746,133
$3,227,556
$7,746,133
$5,676,644
$13,623,945
$5,676,644
$13,623,945
$2,524,161
$6,057,987
$2,524,161
$6,057,987
$2,524,161
$6,057,987
$2,524,161
$6,057,987
$14,166,171 $14,166,171 $10,973,689 $10,973,689 $19,300,588 $19,300,588 $8,582,148 $8,582,148 $8,582,148 $8,582,148
MH- large companies (R&D, R&R, cert.)9 2 4
MH - large companies (R&R, cert.)9
MH- large companies (R&R, software cert.)7'9
MH- small companies (R&R, software cert.)7'9
3
1
42
9
8
85
$260,337
$29,112
$11,378
$161,788
$260,337
$29,112
$10,328
$117,688
$260,337
$29,112
$10,328
$117,688
$260,337
$29,112
$10,328
$117,688
$260,337
$29,112
$10,328
$117,688
$260,337
$29,112
$10,328
$117,688
$12,939
$29,112
$10,328
$117,688
$12,939
$29,112
$10,328
$117,688
$12,939
$29,112
$10,328
$117,688
$12,939
$29,112
$10,328
$117,688
$462,616 $417,466 $417,466 $417,466 $417,466 $417,466 $170,067 $170,067 $170,067 $170,067
$30,663,297
$30,618,147
$26,148,672
$26,148,672
$45,557,694
$45,557,694
$20,188,873
$20,188,873
$20,188,873
$20,188,873
2023
through
2041 2
$0
$203,909
$250,000
$72,625
$526,534
$235,073
$564,176
$799,249
$12,939
$29,112
$10,328
$117,688
$170,067
$1,495,850
-------
It should be noted that Tables A-3a, A-3b, A-4a, and A-4b are based on a 7% interest rate and are in 2010 dollars($). We also
prepared these cost estimates based on a 3% interest rate. Note also that costs vary by appliance type based on the average number of
models per manufacturer. The estimate of the number of model types are described in the unit cost memo.127 For numbers of
manufacturers, we started with HPBA data, modified based on internet searches of manufacturers of the major appliance types. 128
The total nationwide cost of the rule from years 2014 through 2022 for the Proposal and the Alternative differ based on the
underlying cost and implementation assumptions described in this memo, and are summarized below in Table A-5.
Table A-5. Nationwide Annual Cost of the Rule under the Proposal and Alternative Approach
Year
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Cost under Proposal
(2010$)
30,618,147
26,148,672
26,148,672
26,148,672
26,148,672
1,495,850
1,495,850
Cost under Alternative
Approach (2010$)
30,618,147
26,148,672
26,148,672
45,557,694
45,557,694
20,188,873
20,188,873
127 Memo to Gil Wood, USEPA, from Jill Mozier, EC/R, Inc. Unit Cost Estimates of Residential Wood Heating Appliances. February 21, 2013.
128 HPBA Solid Fuel Product List. Attachment to E-mail from John Crouch, HBPS, to Gil Wood, EPA. September 24, 2010.
9-1
-------
2021
2022
1,495,850
1,495,850
20,188,873
20,188,873
Finally, Tables A-6 and A-7 provide annual costs and emissions, and emission reductions associated with the Proposal and
Alternative options, respectively, for each year included in the analyses, including impacts of the rule beyond 2022, and cumulative
impacts for each option.
9-2
-------
Table A-6. Cost Effectiveness (CE) based on annual and cumulative PM2.5 emissions from Central Heaters (Forced Air Furnaces and Hydronic Heating
Systems) and Room Heaters (Wood Stoves, Pellet Stoves, and Single Burn Rate Stoves) for the Proposal Option
Annual Nationwide Nationwide
Capital Annual Average
Year Costs Cost1 Annual Cost
2013 3 $4,754,295 $10,883,300 $3,289,936
2014 4 $4,754,295 $10,883,300 $3,289,936
2015 $4,068,766 $9,314,021 $3,289,936
2016 $4,068,766 $9,314,021 $3,289,936
2017 $4,068,766 $9,314,021 $3,289,936
2018 $4,068,766 $9,314,021 $3,289,936
2019 4 $0 $1,325,783 $3,289,936
2020 $0 $1,325,783 $3,289,936
2021 $0 $1,325,783 $3,289,936
2022 $0 $1,325,783 $3,289,936
2023 $0 $1,325,783 $3,289,936
2024 $0 $1,325,783 $3,289,936
2025 $0 $1,325,783 $3,289,936
2026 $0 $1,325,783 $3,289,936
Emission Reduction, cumulative per
Annual Snapshots year
CE based
on
Baseline NSPS nationwide
PM25 PM25 Emission average
Emissions2 Emissions Reduction annual cost
(tons) 2 (tons) (tons) (per ton)
5,587 1,760 3,827 $860
9. 1.2 I 9.1.3 3
9.1.1 5, 7 9
69 9 0 9.1.4 $8
9 5 3 43
5,812 1,831 3,981 $826
5,929 1,868 4,061 $810
6,047 1,905 4,142 $794
6,168 464 5,705 $577
6,292 473 5,819 $565
6,417 482 5,935 $554
6,546 492 6,054 $543
6,677 502 6,175 $533
6,810 512 6,298 $522
6,946 522 6,424 $512
7,085 533 6,553 $502
Baseline NSPS
PM25 PM25 Emission
Emissions Emissions Reduction
(tons) (tons) (tons)
5,587 1,760 3,827
9.1.5 I 9.1.7 1
1, 9.1.6 3,
257
853
560
17,098 5,387 11,711
23,026 7,255 15,771
29,074 9,161 19,913
35,242 9,624 25,618
41,534 10,097 31,437
47,951 10,579 37,372
54,497 11,071 43,425
61,174 11,573 49,600
67,984 12,085 55,899
74,930 12,607 62,323
82,016 13,140 68,876
CE based
on total
cost&
cumulative
emission
reduction
over 20-
year stove
lifespan
(per ton)
9-3
-------
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$1
$1
$1
$1
$1
$1
$1
$1
$1
$1
$1
$1
,325,783
,325,783
,325,783
,325,783
,325,783
,325,783
,325,783
,325,783
,325,783
,325,783
,325,783
,325,783
$3,289,936
$3,289,936
$3,289,936
$3,289,936
$3,289,936
$3,289,936
$3,289,936
$3,289,936
$3,289,936
$3,289,936
$3,289,936
$3,289,936
7,227 543
7,372 554
7,519 565
7,669 576
7,823 588
7,979 600
8,139 612
8,302 624
8,468 636
8,637 649
8,810 662
8,986 675
6,684 $492
6,818 $483
6,954 $473
7,093 $464
7,235 $455
7,380 $446
9.1.8 $4
37
7,527
7,678 $429
7,831 $420
7,988 $412
8,148 $404
8,311 $396
89,243
96,614
104,133
119,626
127,605
9.1.9 1
3
5,
7
4
4
138,459
141,228
144,052
146,933
149,872
143,704
137,412
130,995
124,449
117,772
110,962
104,016
96,930
13,683
14,237
14,802
15,967
16,566
9.1.10 1
7,
1
7
8
16,042
14,883
13,701
12,495
11,265
10,801
10,328
9,846
9,354
8,852
8,340
7,818
7,286
75,560
82,377
89,331
103,659
111,039
9.1.11 1
1
8
,
5
6
6
122,417
126,345
130,352
134,439
138,607
132,903
127,084
121,149
115,095
108,920
102,622
96,198
89,645
9-4
-------
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2056
2057
Nationwide cumulative cost5
$85,538,348
89,703 6,742
82,332 6,188
74,812 5,623
67,143 5,047
59,320 4,459
51,341 3,859
43,202 3,247
34,900 2,623
26,433 1,987
17,796 1,338
8,986 675
Cumulative Emission
Reduction over 20 -year
stove lifespan
82,961
76,143
69,189
62,096
54,862
47,482
39,955
32,277
24,446
16,458
8,311
1,546,402
$55
1 Estimated nationwide annual costs are in 2010 $ and are based on a 6-year amortization period of R&D costs at a 7% interest rate (during 2013-2018), plus annual
certification and reporting & recordkeeping costs (ongoing through 2038). Years 2039 through 2057 are past the 20-year model design lifespan used in this analysis.
2 Estimated annual emissions are based on a forecasted revenue growth rate (as a surrogate for shipments) of 2.0 % from 2011 through 2038, in keeping with the
average annual growth in real GDP predicted by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (2013 Global Outlook projections prepared by the Conference Board in
November 2012; see http://www.conference-board.org/data/globaloutlook.cfm).
3 2013 costs assume manufacturers will begin R&D phase and begin certifying models in anticipation of the 2014 rule compliance date. Emissions in 2013, however,
are not included in this analysis because it is prior to the rule compliance date.
4 Estimated emissions assume Step 1 standard becomes applicable in 2014 and Step 2 standard in 2019. No emission reductions are estimated to result from
woodstoves and pellet stoves until 2019, although emission reductions are estimated for all other devices starting in 2014 .
5 The nationwide cumulative cost represents the cost to manufacturers resulting fromthe R&D re-design to meet the proposed NSPS and the NSPS-caused
certification and reporting & recordkeeping costs to bring these stoves to market from 2013 through 2038. These stoves have lifespans of 20 years or more; thus
stoves shipped in 2038 will be emitting through 2057.
9-5
-------
Table A-7. Cost Effectiveness (CE) based on annual and cumulative PM2.5 emissions from Central Heaters (Forced Air Furnaces and Hydronic Heating
Systems) and Room Heaters (Wood Stoves, Pellet Stoves, and Single Burn Rate Stoves) for the Alternative Option
Annual Nationwide
Capital Nationwide Average
Year Costs Annual Cost1 Annual Cost
2013 3 $10,295,398 $30,200,681 $10,600,322
2014 4 $10,295,398 $30,200,681 $10,600,322
2015 $8,771,756 $25,731,206 $10,600,322
Emission Reduction, cumulative per
Annual Snapshots year
CE based
on
Baseline NSPS nationwide
PM25 PM25 Emission average
Emissions2 Emissions2 Reduction annual cost
(tons) (tons) (tons) (per ton)
5,587 1,760 3,827 $2,770
5,699 1,795 3,903 $2,716
Baseline NSPS
PM25 PM25 Emission
Emissions Emissions Reduction
(tons) (tons) (tons)
5,587 1,760 3,827
11,285 3,556 7,730
CE based
on total
cost &
cumulative
emission
reduction
over 20-
year stove
lifespan
(per ton)
9-6
-------
2016
2017 4
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022 4
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
$8,771,756
$15,388,282
$15,388,282
$6,824,401
$6,824,401
$6,824,401
$6,824,401
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$45,140,228
$45,140,228
$20,018,806
$20,018,806
$20,018,806
$20,018,806
$1,325,783
$1,325,783
$1,325,783
$1,325,783
$1,325,783
$1,325,783
$1,325,783
$1,325,783
$1,325,783
$1,325,783
$10,600,322
$10,600,322
$10,600,322
$10,600,322
$10,600,322
$10,600,322
$10,600,322
$10,600,322
$10,600,322
$10,600,322
$10,600,322
$10,600,322
$10,600,322
$10,600,322
$10,600,322
$10,600,322
5,929
6,047
6,168
6,292
6,546
6,677
6,810
6,946
7,085
7,227
7,372
7,519
7,669
7,823
7,979
906
925
943
962
492
502
512
522
533
543
554
565
576
588
5,022
5,123
5,225
5,330
6,054
6,175
6,298
6,424
6,553
6,684
6,818
6,954
7,093
7,235
$2,111
$2,069
$2,029
$1,989
$1,751
$1,717
$1,683
$1,650
$1,618
$1,586
$1,555
$1,524
$1,494
$1,465
23,026
29,074
35,242
41,534
54,497
61,174
67,984
74,930
82,016
89,243
96,614
104,133
111,803
119,626
6,294
7,218
8,161
9,123
10,596
11,098
11,610
12,132
12,664
13,208
13,762
14,327
14,903
15,491
16,733
21,856
27,081
32,411
43,901
50,076
56,374
62,798
69,351
76,035
82,853
89,806
96,899
104,134
9-7
-------
2033 $0 $1,325,783 $10,600,322
2034 $0 $1,325,783 $10,600,322
2035 $0 $1,325,783 $10,600,322
2036 $0 $1,325,783 $10,600,322
2037 $0 $1,325,783 $10,600,322
2038 $0 $1,325,783 $10,600,322
2039 $0 $1,325,783 $10,600,322
2040 $0 $1,325,783 $10,600,322
2041 $0 $1,325,783 $10,600,322
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2053
2054
2055
8,139 612 7,527 $1,408
8,302 624 7,678 $1,381
8,468 636 7,831 $1,354
8,637 649 7,988 $1,327
8,810 662 8,148 $1,301
8,986 675 8,311 $1,276
9,166 689 8,477 $1,251
9,349 703 8,646 $1,226
9,536 717 8,819 $1,202
135,744
138,459
141,228
144,052
146,933
149,872
152,870
155,927
159,045
152,500
145,823
139,013
132,066
124,981
117,754
110,382
102,863
95,194
87,371
79,392
71,253
62,951
54,483
16,703
15,567
14,408
13,225
12,981
12,732
12,478
12,219
11,954
11,462
10,960
10,449
9,926
9,394
8,851
8,297
7,731
7,155
6,567
5,967
5,356
4,732
4,095
119,041
122,892
126,820
130,827
133,952
137,140
140,392
143,708
147,091
141,037
134,863
128,564
122,140
115,587
108,903
102,086
95,132
88,039
80,804
65,897
58,220
50,388
9.1.12
9-8
-------
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
Nationwide cumulative cost5
$307,409,335
45,846 3,446 42,400
37,037 2,784 34,253
28,051 2,108 25,942
18,885 1,419 17,466
9,536 717 8,819
Cumulative Emission
Reduction over 20-year
stove lifespan
1,641,055
$187
1 Estimated nationwide annual costs are in 2010 $ and are based on 6-year amortization periods of R&D costs at a 7% interest rate (during 2013-2018 for round one
R&D and 2017-2022 for round two R&D), plus annual certification and reporting & recordkeeping costs (ongoing through 2041). Years 2042 through 2060 are past
the 20-year model design lifespan used in this analysis.
2 Estimated annual emissions are based on a forecasted revenue growth rate (as a surrogate for shipments) of 2.0 % from 2011 through 2041, in keeping with the
average annual growth in real GDP predicted by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (2013 Global Outlook projections prepared by the Conference Board in
November 2012; see http://www.conference-board.org/data/globaloutlook.cfm).
3 2013 costs assume manufacturers will begin R&D phase and begin certifying models in anticipation of the 2014 rule compliance date. Emissions in 2013, however,
are not included in this analysis because it is prior to the rule compliance date.
4 Estimated emissions assume Step 1 standard becomes applicable in 2014, Step 2 standard in 2017, and Step 3 standard in 2022. No emission reductions are estimated
for woodstoves and pellet stoves until 2017, although emission reductions are estimated for all other devices starting in 2014.
5 The nationwide cumulative cost represents the cost to manufacturers resulting from the R&D round(s) to meet the proposed NSPS and the NSPS-caused certification
and reporting & recordkeeping costs to bring these stoves to market from 2013 through 2041. These stoves have lifespans of 20 years or more; thus stoves shipped in
2041 will be emitting through 2060.
9-9
-------
Attachment A
Table AA-1. Non-Catalytic, Catalytic, and Pellet Stove Emissions (HPBA Data)
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
Type
Cat. /Non. Cat
or Pellet
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Cat.
Pellet
Cat.
Pellet
Pellet
Non-Cat
Pellet
Pellet
Pellet
Pellet
Non-Cat
Cat.
Cat.
EPA M28
Weighted
Avg. Emissions
g/hour
0.70
0.80
0.80
1.00
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.15
1.20
1.20
1.30
1.30
1.30
1.35
9-10
-------
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
Non-Cat
Cat.
Pellet
Pellet
Non-Cat
Pellet
Non-Cat
Pellet
Pellet
Pellet
Cat.
Pellet
Pellet
Pellet
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Cat.
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Pellet
Cat.
Non-Cat
Cat.
Non-Cat
Cat.
Non-Cat
Pellet
Non-Cat
Pellet
Cat.
Cat.
Non-Cat
1.40
1.40
1.40
1.40
1.50
1.50
1.60
1.60
1.60
1.60
1.60
1.67
1.70
1.80
1.89
1.90
1.90
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.10
2.10
2.10
2.10
2.20
2.30
2.30
2.40
2.40
2.40
9-11
-------
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Cat.
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Pellet
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Pellet
Non-Cat
Pellet
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
2.40
2.40
2.43
2.50
2.50
2.60
2.60
2.60
2.60
2.70
2.70
2.70
2.70
2.88
2.90
2.90
2.90
2.90
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.01
3.06
3.10
3.10
3.10
3.10
3.10
3.10
3.10
3.20
9-12
-------
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Cat.
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Pellet
Non-Cat
3.30
3.35
3.40
3.40
3.40
3.40
3.47
3.50
3.50
3.50
3.50
3.60
3.60
3.60
3.60
3.60
3.60
3.60
3.70
3.70
3.71
3.72
3.80
3.80
3.80
3.90
3.90
4.00
4.00
4.00
4.00
4.10
9-13
-------
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
Cat.
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Pellet
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
4.10
4.10
4.10
4.18
4.19
4.20
4.20
4.20
4.30
4.30
4.31
4.40
4.40
4.40
4.40
4.40
4.50
4.50
4.50
4.70
4.80
4.80
5.10
5.20
5.30
5.50
5.50
5.90
6.00
6.00
6.10
6.90
9-14
-------
144
145
Non-Cat
Non-Cat
7.30
7.50
Table AA-2. Catalytic Stove Emissions (HPBA Data)
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
Type
Cat. /Non. Cat
or Pellet
Cat.
Cat.
Cat.
Cat.
Cat.
Cat.
Cat.
Cat.
Cat.
Cat.
Cat.
Cat.
Cat.
Cat.
Cat.
EPA M28
Weighted
Avg. Emissions
g/hour
0.80
1.10
1.30
1.35
1.40
1.60
1.90
2.00
2.10
2.10
2.40
2.40
2.50
3.70
4.10
9-15
-------
Table AA-3. Pellet Stove Emissions (HPBA Data)
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
Type
Cat. /Non. Cat
or Pellet
Pellet
Pellet
Pellet
Pellet
Pellet
Pellet
Pellet
Pellet
Pellet
Pellet
Pellet
Pellet
Pellet
Pellet
Pellet
Pellet
Pellet
Pellet
Pellet
Pellet
Pellet
Pellet
Pellet
EPA M28
Weighted
Avg. Emissions
g/hour
1.00
1.10
1.10
1.15
1.20
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.40
1.50
1.60
1.60
1.60
1.67
1.70
1.80
2.00
2.20
2.30
2.60
3.10
3.10
4.00
9-16
-------
24 Pellet 5.50
9-17
-------
United States Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards EPA-452/R-13 -004
Environmental Protection Health and Environmental Impacts Division January, 2014
Agency Research Triangle Park, NC
9-18
------- |