United States Environmental Protection Agency Office of Atmospheric Programs (6207J) Washington, DC 20005 EPA-430-S-14-001 March 2014 Global Mitigation of Non-C02 Greenhouse Gases: 2010-2030 jcutive Summary ------- Table of Contents Introduction 2 Energy Coal Mining 4 Oil and Natural Gas Systems 6 Waste Landfills 8 Wastewater 10 Industrial Processes Nitric and Adipic Acid Production 12 Refrigeration and Air Conditioning 14 Solvents 16 Foams Manufacturing, Use, and Disposal 18 Aerosols 20 Fire Protection 22 Aluminum Production 24 HCFC-22 Production 26 Semiconductor Manufacturing 28 Electric Power Systems 30 Magnesium Production 32 Photovoltaic Cell Manufacturing 34 Flat Panel Display Manufacturing 36 Agriculture Livestock 38 Rice Cultivation 40 Croplands 42 ------- Introduction Climate change is influenced by a number of social and environmental factors. The change in our Earth's climate is largely driven by emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) to the atmosphere. While some GHG emissions occur through natural processes, the largest share of GHG emissions come from human activities. GHG emissions from anthropogenic sources have increased significantly over a relatively short time frame (-100 years) and are projected to grow appreciably over the next 20 years. Policy development and planning efforts are underway at all levels of society to identify climate change strategies that effectively reduce future greenhouse gas emissions and prepare communities to adapt to the Earth's changing climate. GHG mitigation analysis continues to play an important role in the formation of climate change policy. A large body of research has been dedicated to analyzing ways to reduce carbon dioxide (CC^) emissions. While this work is critical to developing effective climate policy, other GHG gases can play an important role in the effort to address global climate change. These non-carbon dioxide (non-CC^) GHGs include methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and a number of industrial gases such as fluorinated gases. Non-CO2 greenhouse gases are more potent than CO2 (per unit weight) at trapping heat within the atmosphere. Global warming potential (GWP) is the factor that quantifies the heat trapping potential of each GHG relative to that of carbon dioxide (CC^). For example, methane has a GWP value of 21 which means that each molecule of methane released into the atmosphere is 21 more times effective at trapping heat compared to an equivalent unit of CC^. The table shows the list of GHG gases with their GWP values that are considered in this report. Marginal abatement cost curves (MACCs) are an analytical tool commonly used in mitigation analysis to assist policy makers in understanding the opportunities for reducing GHG emissions and the relative cost of implementation. MACCs provide information on the amount of emissions reductions that can be achieved as well as an estimate of the costs of implementing the GHG abatement measures. This figure shows the Global MACC for all non-CO2 GHGs in 2030. Worldwide, the potential for cost-effective non-CO2 GHG abatement is significant. The figure shows the global total aggregate MAC for the year 2030. Without a price signal (i.e., at $0/tCO2e), the global mitigation potential is greater than 1,800 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent (MtCC^e), or 12% of the baseline emissions. As the break-even price rises, the mitigation potential grows. Significant mitigation opportunities could be realized in the lower range of break-even prices. For example, the mitigation potential at a price of $10/tCO2e is greater than 3,000 MtCO2e, or 20% of the baseline emissions, and greater than 3,600 MtCC^e or 24% of the baseline emissions at $20/tCO2e. In the higher range of break- even prices, the MACC becomes steeper, and less mitigation potential exists for each additional increase in price. As the figure shows, higher levels of emissions reductions are achievable at higher abatement costs expressed in dollars per metric ton of CO2 equivalent ($ftCO^e) reduced. The quantity of emissions that can be reduced, or the abatement potential, is constrained by the availability and effectiveness of the abatement measures (emission reduction technologies). Global MACC for Non-C02 Greenhouse Gases in 2030 Greenhouse Gases Carbon Dioxide Methane Nitrous Oxide Hydrofluorocarbons Sulfur Hexafluoride Abbreviation C02 CH4 N20 HFCs SF6 GWP (100 year) 1 21 310 140 to 11, 700 23,900 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 Non-C02 Reductions (MtC02e) About this Report USEPA has recently updated its International MACC model for the Non-C02 anthropogenic sources that include energy, waste, industrial processes, and agricultural activities. The results of this analysis are published in the EPA report Global Mitigation of Non-C02 Greenhouse Gases: 2010-2030and include improved country-level resolution and increased transparency in the economic and technological assumptions underlying the abatement measures considered in the analysis. This report is intended to provide a brief summary of the abatement potential and costs of implementing specific abatement technologies. Readers interested in more technical details of the analysis should refer to the full technical report, which is available at EPA's International Non-C02 Mitigation web page.1 !The Global Mitigation of Non-C02 Greenhouse Gases: 2010-2030 report is available at: http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/EPAactivities/economics/nonco2mitigation.html ------- '"!"lr7.r- --* CH4 Emissions from Underground Coal Mining Sector Description Coal is an important energy source for many of the world's economies; it is used for energy generation or as a feedstock for industrial production. However, coal mining is a significant source of anthropogenic GHG emissions. Extracting coal through underground and surface mining releases methane (CIrLi) stored in the coal bed and the surrounding geology. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's most recent international energy outlook, coal production is projected to increase by 22% between 2012 and 2040, reflecting continued economic and industrial development of the world's emerging economies. Emissions Reduction Potential Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the coal mining sector could be reduced by up to 468 MtCC^e in 2030. This accounts for 10% of the 4,615 MtC02e in global reduction potential in 2030. Coal Mining 468 Energy Waste Industrial Processes Agriculture Global Non-C02 Emissions Coal Mining sector baseline emissions are estimated to be 589 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030, emissions from this source are projected to be 784 MtC02e or 6% of total non-CO, emissions. Coal Mining 6% Projected Emissions in 2030 Emissions from Top 5 Emitting Countries (MtCO e) Rest of World: 151 MtC02e 51 78 31 436 37 Energy | Waste | Industrial Processes Agriculture Other Non-C02 Sources Not Modeled China United States Russia Australia Ukraine ROW Key Points Coal mining accounted for 8% of total global anthropogenic methane emissions in 2010, and these emissions are projected to increase by 33% to 784 MtCC^e by 2030. The global abatement potential is projected to be 50 to 468 tCf^e, or 6 to 60% of baseline emissions, in 2030. Cost-effective abatement potential ($0 break-even price) is 77.7 tCIhe, or 10% of baseline. The technological maximum potential ($100+ break-even price) is 467.6 tCC^e, or 60% of baseline. Abatement Measures Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices. VAM oxidation Degasification for pipeline injection Degasification for power generation Open flare On-site use in coal drying On-site use in mine boiler 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Reductions achievable at cost less than $0/tC02e Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tCO e Abatement Measures Five abatement measures were considered in this analysis, including recovery for pipeline injection, power generation, process heating, flaring, and catalytic or thermal oxidation of ventilation air methane (VAM). These reduction technologies consist of one or more of the following primary components: 1) a drainage and recovery system to remove methane from the underground coal seam, 2) the end-use application for the gas recovered from the drainage system, and 3) the VAM recovery or mitigation system. co CD CO ro CD co CD CD C\J O O O O "ro DJD 03 _Q o co if) CD cr. >^ 03 E I c^ Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030 It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 10%, compared to the baseline, in 2030. An additional 50% reduction is available using technologies with increasingly higher costs. Reduction Potential 50% 10% Baseline: 784 MtC02e Residual Emissions Technically Feasible at Increasing Costs Reductions at No Cost Abatement Potential Approximately 60% of total annual emissions in 2030 can be reduced through the adoption of the suite of abatement measures considered. The marginal abatement cost curve (MACC) results suggest that significant reductions in CH4 emissions can be achieved at break-even prices at or below $10/tCO2e. Furthermore, reductions of approximately 78 MtCO2e are cost-effectively achievable at a break-even price of $0/tCO2e. ------- Oil and Natural Gas CH4 Emissions from Oil and Natural Gas Systems Key Points The technological maximum for emissions reduction potential in oil and gas is 1,219 MtC02e, approximately 58% of projected emissions in 2030. Because of the energy value of the methane captured, EPA estimates that 747 MtC02e, or 40% of the baseline emissions, can be cost-effectively reduced. Over 26% of total abatement potential is achieved by adopting abatement measures in the oil and gas production segments. Sector Description Oil and natural gas systems are one of the leading emitters of anthropogenic CH4, releasing 1,677 MtCO2e, or 23% of total global CH4 emissions in 2010. The top five CH4 emitters from oil and natural gas systems in 2010 were Russia, the United States, Iraq, Kuwait, and Uzbekistan. Global emissions from the oil and natural gas system are projected to grow 26% between 2010 and 2030, with Brazil and Iraq experiencing the highest growth rate at 128% and 100%, respectively. Emissions Reduction Potential Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the oil and natural gas systems sector could be reduced by up to 1,219 MtCC^e in 2030. This accounts for 26% of the 4,615 MtCC^e in global reduction potential in 2030. Oil & Natural Gas Systems 1,219 Refrigeration & Air Conditioning Abatement Measures Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices. Directed inspection & maintenance Installing plunger lift systems in gas wells Reduce emission completions for hydraulically fractured natural gas wells Fuel gas retrofit for BD valve - take recip. compressors offline Installing catalytic converters on gas engines and turbines Replacingwet seals with dry seals in centrifugal compressors Installing surge vessels for capturing blowdown vents Replacing high-bleed pneumatic devices in the natural gas industry Reciprocating compressor rod packing (Static-Pac) Installingflash tank separators on dehydrators Other measures 50 100 150 200 250 275 Energy Waste Industrial Processes Agriculture Global Non-C02 Emissions Oil and Natural Gas Systems baseline emissions are estimated to be 1,677 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030, emissions from this source are projected to be 2,113 MtC02e or 16% of total non-C02 emissions. Oil & Natural Gas Systems 16% Projected Emissions in 2030 Emissions from Top 5 Emitting Countries (MtCO e) Rest of World: 971 MtC02e I Reductions achievable at cost less than $0/tC02e Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tC02e Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030 It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 35%, compared to the baseline, in 2030. An additional 23% reduction is available using technologies with increasingly higher costs. Reduction Potential 313 418 107 188 23% 116 Baseline: 2,113 MtC02e Residual Emissions Technically Feasible at Increasing Costs Reductions at No Cost Energy | Waste Abatement Measures Numerous abatement measures are available to mitigate CH4 emissions across the four oil and natural gas system segments of production, processing, transmission, and distribution. The measures may be applied to various components or equipment commonly used in oil and natural gas system segments. The abatement measures typically fall into three categories: equipment modifications/upgrades; changes in operational practices, including direct inspection and maintenance; and installation of new equipment. Abatement Potential In 2010, the global abatement potential in the oil and natural gas sector is projected to be 997 MtCC>2e, or 60% of total emissions. The abatement potential increases over time growing to 1,103 and 1,218 MtCO2e in 2020 and 2030, respectively. Nearly 70% of the emissions reductions in 2030 are achievable at break-even prices at or below $5. co CD CO ro CD co CD CD C\J O O O O '-41 03 DJD 03 _Q co -t> co CD cr. 03 E E ^ C/5 | Industrial Processes Agriculture Other Non-C02 Sources Not Modeled Russia United States Iraq Kuwait Uzbekistan ROW ------- ,ey Points Global abatement potential from landfills is 589 MtC02e, roughly 61% of projected baseline emissions in 2030. Abatement measures with costs below $20/tC02e can achieve a 30% reduction baseline emissions. Abatement measures include (1) conversion of landfill gas to energy and (2) waste diversion projects that use waste in the production of new products. Sector Description Landfills produce methane in combination with other landfill gases (LFGs) through the natural process of bacterial decomposition of organic waste under anaerobic conditions. LFG is generated over a period of several decades with gas flows usually beginning 1 to 2 years after the waste is put in place. The amount of methane generated by landfills per country is determined by a number of factors that include population size, the quantity of waste disposed of per capita, composition of the waste disposed of, and the waste management practices applied at the landfill. Global Non-CQ, Emissions Landfills sector baseline emissions are estimated to be 847 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030, emissions from this source are projected to be 959 MtC02e or 7% of total non-CO, emissions. Landfills 7% Emissions Reduction Potential Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the landfill sector could be reduced by up to 589 MtCC^e in 2030. This accounts for 13% of the 4,615 MtC02e in global reduction potential in 2030. Landfills Landfills 589 Refrigeration & Air Conditioning Energy Waste Industrial Processes Agriculture Projected Emissions in 2030 Emissions from Top 5 Emitting Countries (MtCO e) Rest of World: 632 MtC02e 40 Abatement Measures Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices. Electricity generation w/ reciprocating engine Waste to energy (WTE) Mechanical biological treatment (MBT) Composting Anaerobic digestion Paper recycling Landfill gas recovery for direct use Flaring of landfill gas Enhanced oxidation Electricity generation w/ gas turbine Electricity generation w/ CHP Electricity generation w/microturbine 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Reductions achievable at cost less than $0/tC02e Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tC02e Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030 It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 12%, compared to the baseline, in 2030. An additional 49% reduction is available using technologies with increasingly higher costs. Reduction Potential Baseline: 959 MtC02e Residual Emissions Technically Feasible at Increasing Costs Reductions at No Cost Several abatement measures are available to control landfill methani emissions, and they are commonly grouped into three major categories: (1) collection and flaring, (2) LFG utilization systems (LFG capture fo energy use), and (3) enhanced wast* diversion practices (e.g., recycling a: reuse programs). Although flaring i; currently the most common abaterr measure, LFG utilization options rr be more cost-effective. Under favor; market conditions, recycling and reuse or composting alternatives ma provide additional means for reduci emissions from landfills. Abatement Potential Global abatement potential in the solid waste landfill sector is estimated to I approximately 589 MtCO2e of tota annual emissions in 2030, or 61% c the baseline emissions. The margina that there are significant opportunit for CH4 reductions in the landfill sector at costs below $20 per tCO2e emissions reduced. Furthermore, approximately 70 to 80 MtCC^e of reductions are cost-effective at curre energy prices. Energy H Waste | Industrial Processes Agriculture Other Non-C02 Sources Not Modeled United States Mexico China Russia Malaysia ROW ------- Wastewater CH4 Emissions from Municipal Wastewater Systems ,ey Points Methane (CH4) emissions from wastewater treatment accounted for over 500 MtC02e in 2010 and are projected to grow 20% by 2030. The estimated maximum abatement potential in 2030 is 218 MtC02e, or 36% of projected emissions. Abatement measures with costs less than $30 tCC^e can achieve a 15% reduction in CH4 emissions in 2030. Sector Description Wastewater is the fifth largest emitter of anthropogenic CH4, accounting for more than 500 MtCO2e in 2010; wastewater treatment is also a source of N2O emissions. Domestic and industrial wastewater treatment activities can lead to venting and fugitive emissions of CH4, which are produced when organic material decomposes under anaerobic conditions of wastewater in a facility. Most developed countries use aerobic wastewater treatment systems to minimize the amount of CH4 generated, but many developing countries rely on systems such as septic tanks, latrines, open sewers, and lagoons, which allow for greater levels of anaerobic decomposition. Emissions Reduction Potential Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the wastewater sector could be reduced by up to 218 MtCC^e in 2030. This accounts for 5% of the 4,615 MtCC^e in global reduction potential in 2030. Wastewater 218 Energy Refrigeration & Air Conditioning Abatement Measures Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices. Latrine to aerobic Wwtp Open sewer to aerobic Wwtp Septic tank to aerobic Wwtp Wastewater treatment plant with anaerobic sludge digester with co-gen 0 20 40 60 100 120 Reductions achievable at cost less than $0/tC02e Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tC02e Waste Industrial Processes Agriculture Projected Emissions in 2030 Global Non-CQ, Emissions The Wastewater sector baseline emissions are estimated to be 512 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030, emissions from this source are projected to be 609 MtC02e or 5% of total non-C02 emissions. Wastewater 5% 30 ^ Emissions from Top 5 Emitting Countries (MtCO e) Rest of World: 252 MtC02e Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030 It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 1%, compared to the baseline, in 2030. An additional 35% reduction is available using technologies with increasingly higher costs. Reduction Potential 58 1% 78 Baseline: 609 MtC02e Residual | Emissions Technically Feasible at Increasing Costs Reductions at No Cost Abatement Measure: CH4 emissions from wastewater cai be significantly reduced through improvements to infrastructure and equipment. Abatement measures available in the wastewater sector include installing aerobic wastewatt treatment plants on an individual or centralized scale and installing anaerobic wastewater treatment plants with cogeneration. Factors such as economic resources, population density, government, an technical capabilities are important in determining the potential for mitigating emissions from the wastewater sector. Abatement Potential The global abatement potential of CH4 from wastewater treatment is 138 MtCO2e in 2020 rising to 218 MtCO2e in 2030. This level of CH. mitigation is considered to be the technological maximum abatement potential because high-cost abateiru measures in the wastewater treatme: sector significantly constrain the abatement achievable at lower carbc prices. Cost-effective emissions reductions are limited to 3.4 MtCO2eless than 1% of business usual (BAU) emissions in 2030. Energy Waste | Industrial Processes Agriculture Other Non-C02 Sources Not Modeled China Nigeria Mexico India United States ROW ------- Nitric and Adipic Acid Production N20 Emissions from Nitric and Adipic Acid Production Key Points The global abatement potential is 116 MtCt^e, or 79% of projected emissions i, 2030. A 65% reduction in emissions is achievable at break-even prices below $20. Abatement measure selection is driven by facility design constraints and/or operating costs. Sector Description Nitric and adipic acid are commonly used as feedstock in manufacturing a variety of commercial products, particularly fertilizer and synthetic fibers. The process used to produce nitric and adipic acid generates significant quantities of nitrous oxide (N2O) as a by-product. The production of nitric and adipic acid is expected to increase over time, driven by continued growth in demand for fertilizer and synthetic fibers. Emissions Reduction Potential Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the nitric and adipic acid production sector could be reduced by up to 116 MtCC^e in 2030. This accounts for 3% of the 4,615 MtCC^e in global reduction potential in 2030. Nitric and Adipic Acid Production 116 Abatement Measures Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices. Tail-gas catalytic decomposition Non-selective catalytic reduction Catalytic decomposition in the burner Homogeneous decomposition in the burner Thermal destruction Refrigeration & Air Conditioning 10 15 20 25 30 Reductions achievable at cost less than $0/tC02e Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tCO e Energy Waste Industrial Processes Agriculture Global Non-C02Emissions Nitric and Adipic Acid Production baseline emissions are estimated to be 118 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030, emissions from this source are projected to be 147 MtC02e or 1% of total non-C02 emissions. Projected Emissions in 2030 Emissions from Top 5 Emitting Countries (MtC02e) Rest of World: 209 MtC02e Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030 It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 0%, compared to the baseline, in 2030. An additional 79% reduction is available using technologies with increasingly higher costs. Reduction Potential Nitric & Adipic Acid Production 1% r 23 Baseline: 147 MtC02e Residual Emissions Technically Feasible at Increasing Costs Reductions at No Cost Energy Waste | Industrial Processes Agriculture Other Non-C02 Sources Not Modeled United States South Korea Brazil China Ukraine ROW Abatement Measures N2O emissions can be mitigated through a number of alternative abatement measures. In nitric acid production, reduction technologies are categorized by their location in the production process. Secondary reduction technologies, such as homogeneous thermal decomposition and catalytic decomposition, are installed at an intermediate point in the production process. Tertiary reduction technologies, such as catalytic decomposition and nonselective catalytic reduction units, are applied to the tail gas streams at the end of the production process. The implementation of one technology over another is driven largely by facility design constraints and/or cost considerations. Thermal destruction is the single abatement measure considered in this analysis. Abatement Potential The global abatement potential in the nitric and adipic acid sector is approximately 116 MtCC^e of total annual emissions in 2030, or 79% of projected baseline emissions. The marginal abatement cost curve results show that maximum reduction potential is achievable at break-even prices below $50/tCO2e. Over two-thirds of the abatement potential is achievable at break-even prices between $0 and $20. ------- Refrigeration and Air Conditioning HFC Emissions from Refrigeration and Air Conditioning Systems Key Points The global abatement potential from the options quantified is 994 MtCC^e, 62% of projected emissions, in 2030. 30% of the baseline 2030 emissions can be abated from cost-effective mitigation measures ($OpertC02e). This sector accounts for the single largest source of non-CO.2 abatement potential accounting for over 20% of total abatement potential across all non-C02 emitting sectors ir 2030. Sector Description Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) used in refrigeration and air conditioning (AC) systems are emitted to the atmosphere during equipment operation, repair, and disposal, unless recovered, recycled, and ultimately destroyed. Equipment is being retrofitted or replaced to use HFCs that are substitutes for ozone-depleting substances. Some of the most common HFCs include HFC-134a, R-404A, R-410A, R-407C, and R-507A. Emissions Reduction Potential Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the refrigeration & air conditioning sector could be reduced by up to 994 MtCC^e in 2030. This accounts for 22% of the 4,615 MtC02e in global reduction potential in 2030. Refrigeration & Air Conditioning 994 Energy Refrigeration & Air Conditioning Waste Industrial Processes Agriculture Global Non-C02Emissions Refrigeration & Air Conditioning sector baseline emissions are estimated to be 349 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030, emissions from this source are projected to be 1,596 MtC02e or 12% of total non-CO, emissions. Projected Emissions in 2030 Emissions from Top 5 Emitting Countries (MtC02e) Rest of World: 527 MtC02e Refrigeration & Air Conditioning 12% Abatement Measures Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices. Leak repair for existing large equipment Refrigerant recovery at disposal for existing refrigeration/AC equipment HFC secondary loop in large retail food R-410A to R-32 for unitary AC Distributed systems in large retail food Refrigerant recovery at servicing for existing small equipment C02transcritical system in large retail food R-32 with MCHXin new unitary AC equipment MicroChannel heat exchangers (MCHX) in new equipment HFO-1234yf in motor vehicle air-conditioners Enhanced HFO-1234yf in motor vehicle air-conditioners NH3 secondary loop in large retail food NH3 and C02 in cold storage and industrial process refrigeration (IPR) Other measures 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 I Reductions achievable at cost less than $0/tC02e Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tC02e Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030 It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 30%, compared to the baseline, in 2030. An additional 32% reduction is available using technologies with increasingly higher costs. Reduction Potential Baseline: 1,596MtC02e Residual Emissions Technically Feasible at Increasing Costs Reductions at No Cost Abatement Measures HFC abatement measures are categorized into three categories: (1) retrofit of existing systems to utilize lower GWP refrigerants; (2) new cooling systems to use lower GWP refrigerants and/or reduce the charge size; and (3) better refrigerant management practices that reduce emissions during use, servicing, and disposal. Such options are analyzed for end-uses including retail food refrigeration systems, window and unitary AC equipment, motor vehicle AC systems, and other types of cooling systems. Abatement Potential The global abatement potential from refrigeration and AC abatement is calculated to be 994 MtCO2e in 2030, or 62% of baseline emissions; additional uncalculated options are explored qualitatively. The marginal abatement cost curve results show that 479 MtCO2e, 30% of 2030 emissions, can be reduced at a cost of $0 by implementing "no-regret" options. At a cost of $20 per tCO2e, an estimated 910 MtCO2e, or 57% of baseline emissions, could be abated. All abatement options quantified are achievable at mitigation costs below $100/tCO2e. Energy Waste | Industrial Processes Agriculture Other Non-C02 Sources Not Modeled China United States South Korea Russia Japan ROW ------- _., _ 30, 1 200 vents HFC Emissions from Solvent Use double, reaching 10 MtC02e. The maximum abatement potential in the solvents sector from the options analyzed is estimated to be 6 MtC02e, or 59% of the projected baseline in 2030. 5 MtC02e of emissions reductions in 2030 are cost-effective (i.e., $0/tC02e or lower break-even prices). Sector Description HFC solvents are primarily used in precision cleaning applications and electronic cleaning applications. Precision cleaning requires a high level of cleanliness to ensure the satisfactory performance of the product being cleaned, and electronics cleaning is defined as a process that removes contaminants, primarily solder flux residues, from electronics or circuit boards. It is assumed that eventually approximately 90% of the solvent consumed in a given year will be emitted, while 10% of solvent will be disposed of with the sludge that remains. Emissions Reduction Potential Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the solvents sector could be reduced by up to 6 MtCC^e in 2030. This accounts for 0.12% of the 4,615 MtC02e in global reduction potential in 2030. Solvents Refrigeration & Air Conditioning Abatement Measures Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices. Substitute HFE solvents for HFC-4310mee Retrofit Existing Equipment Replace HFC cleaning system with NIK Aqueous cleaning system Replace HFC cleaning system with NIK Semi aqueous cleaning system I I I 1 2 Energy Waste Industrial Processes Agriculture Global Non-C02Emissions Solvents sector baseline emissions are estimated to be 5 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030, emissions from this source are projected to be 10 MtC02e or 0.1% of total non-CO, emissions. Projected Emissions in 2030 Emissions from Top 5 Emitting Countries (MtC02e) Rest of World: 2.7 MtC02e I Reductions achievable at cost less than $0/tC02e Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tC02e Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030 It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 50%, compared to the baseline, in 2030. An additional 9% reduction is available using technologies with increasingly higher costs. Reduction Potential Baseline: 2 MtC02e Residual Emissions Technically Feasible at Increasing Costs Reductions at No Cost Abatement Measures Four abatement options were identified for the solvents sector: (1) replacement of HFCs with HFEs, (2) retrofitting of vapor degreaser equipment to reduce emissions, (3) transition to not-in-kind (NIK) aqueous cleaning, and (4) transition to NIK semi-aqueous cleaning. These technologies have reduction efficiencies of between 50% and 100%. Retrofitting equipment and controls is limited to facilities that have not already been retrofitted. Transition to NIK aqueous and NIK semi-aqueous applicability is limited to some electronic cleaning processes. Abatement Potential The global abatement potential in 2020 and 2030 is 3.0 and 5.7 MtCO2e, respectively. In 2030, reduction of 4.8 MtCO2e , or 50%, of total projected emissions, is achievable at mitigation costs below $0/tCO2e. Additional abatement of approximately 1 MtCO2e is achievable at mitigation costs greater than $50/tCO2e. Energy | Waste | Industrial Processes Agriculture Other Non-C02 Sources Not Modeled China United States Japan Russia South Korea ROW ------- Foams HFC Emissions from Foams Manufacturing, Use, and Disposal Sector Description Foam is used as insulation in a wide range of equipment, structures, and other common products. Foams were historically produced with ozone-depleting substances (ODS), which have been phased out under the Montreal Protocol in developed countries and are being phased out in developing countries. In some end- uses, HFC blowing agents have largely replaced ODS. HFC emissions from the foams sector were approximately 22 MtCO2e in 2010 and are projected to increase substantially to 52 MtCO2e and 92 MtCO2e by 2020 and 2030, respectively. Emissions Reduction Potential Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the foams sector could be reduced by up to 37 MtCC^e in 2030. This accounts for 1% of the 4,615 MtC02e in global reduction potential in 2030. Foams 37 Refrigeration & Air Conditioning Energy Waste Industrial Processes Agriculture Global Non-C02 Emissions Foams sector baseline emissions are estimated to be 22 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030, emissions from this source are projected to be 92 MtC02e or 1% of total non-CO, emissions. Projected Emissions in 2030 Emissions from Top 5 Emitting Countries (MtCO e) Rest of World: 17 MtC02e 26 Energy | Waste | Industrial Processes Agriculture Other Non-C02 Sources Not Modeled United States Japan Germany France Italy ROW Key Points HFC emissions from foams are projected to quadruple over the next 20 years. Abatement measures include replacing MFCs with low-GWP blowing agents and proper recovery and disposal of foam present in existing systems at their end of life. In 2030, the global abatement potential quantified is 27 MtC02e (29.4% of BAU emissions from the foams sector) at cost-effective prices ($0 per tCOae). At higher prices, the abatement options analyzed have the potential to abate up to 37 MtCO^e (40.3% of BAU emissions) in 2030. Abatement Measures Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices. Substitute HFC with HCCom Substitute HFC with HC Substitute LCD-Alcohol for HFC134aC02 Appliance EOL-manual recovery Appliance end of life (EOL)-fully automated One component HFC-134a switch to HC | Substitute C02 for HFC245faC02 | Continuous and Discontinuous: I HFC134a switch to HC ' Substitute HC for HFC245faC02 ' One component HFC-152a wcitch to HC 0 2 4 6 8 10 I Reductions achievable at cost less than $0/tC02e Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tC02e Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030 It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 29%, compared to the baseline, in 2030. An additional 11% reduction is available using technologies with increasingly higher costs. Reduction Potential Baseline: 92 MtC02e Residual Emissions Technically Feasible at Increasing Costs Reductions at No Cost Abatement Measures Abatement options considered include replacing HFCs with various low-GWP blowing agents and properly recovering and disposing of foam contained in equipment and other products after their useful life. More specifically, the use of hydrocarbon or carbon dioxide blowing agents instead of HFCs is assessed quantitatively as an abatement measure in the foams sector noting that other low-GWP agents (e.g., HFO- 1234ze, -1233zd(E)) would achieve similar abatement levels. Abatement Potential The total abatement potential in the foams sector from the options explored is 37 MtCO2e40% of total annual foams sector emissions in 2030while 27 MtCO2e, or 30%, is achievable at cost-effective carbon prices for the same year. Total replacement of HFC blowing agents in foams is limited in the near term by the installed base of foam products. All abatement options analyzed replace blowing agents in newly manufactured foams or destroy the blowing agent only at the foam's natural end of life. ------- Aerosols Key Points HFC Emissions from Aerosol Product Use Global baseline emissions in 2010 for aerosols were estimated at 45 MtCC^e and projected to climb to 100 MtC02e and 146 MtC02e by 2020 and 2030, respectively. Five abatement measures were considered for the aerosols sector, including transitioning away from HFC use to lower GWP propellants and producing alternative non-aerosol consumer products, such as a stick or roller. Relatively low cost abatement measures (< $5/tC0.2e ) are projected to be capable of mitigating 53% of the sector emissions in 2030. Sector Description Aerosol propellant formulations containing HFCs are present in a wide variety of consumer products- such as hairsprays, deodorants, and cleaning suppliesas well as technical and medical aerosols. Baseline HFC emissions from aerosols were estimated at 45 MtCO2e in 2010 and are expected to increase to 146 MtCO2e by 2030. This rapid growth is primarily driven by the increased use of aerosols containing HFCs in developing countries. Emissions Reduction Potential Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the aerosols product use sector could be reduced by up to 97 MtCC^e in 2030. This accounts for 2% of the 4,615 MtC02e in global reduction potential in 2030. Aerosols Product Use 97 Refrigeration & Air Conditioning Abatement Measures Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices. Substitute HC for HFC-134a Substitute NIK for HFC-152a Dry Powder Inhalers Substitute NIK for HFC-134a Substitute HFO-1234ze for HFC-134a Substitute HC for HFC-152a Substitute HFO-1234ze for HFC-152a Substitute HFC-1523 to HFC-1343 Energy Waste Industrial Processes 10 15 20 25 Agriculture Global Non-C02 Emissions Aerosols sector baseline emissions are estimated to be 45 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030, emissions from this source are projected to be 146 MtC02e or 1% of Projected Emissions in 2030 Emissions from Top 5 Emitting Countries (MtC02e) Rest of World: 49 MtC02e Aerosols Product Use 1% Reductions achievable at cost less than $0/tC02e Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tC02e Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030 It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 48%, compared to the baseline, in 2030. An additional 18% reduction is available using technologies with increasingly higher costs. Reduction Potential Baseline: 92 MtC02e Residual Emissions Technically Feasible at Increasing Costs Reductions at No Cost Abatement Measures Abatement options available to reduce emissions for consumer aerosol products include transitioning to replacement propellants with lower GWPsHCs, HFO-1234ze, and HFC-152a (where HFC-134a is used)and converting to a not-in- kind (NIK) alternative, such as sticks, rollers, or finger/trigger pumps. Abatement Potential The global abatement potential from aerosols containing HFCs is estimated to be 96.7 MtCO2e66% of BAU emissions from this sector and 5% of total annual emissions from all sectors that use ODS substitutes in 2030. At $5 per tCO2e, the abatement potential is estimated to be 53.4% of baseline emissions, or 77.8 MtCO2e. Furthermore, the abatement potential at prices < $0 per tCC^e is forecasted to be 70 MtCO2e (48.2% of BAU emissions) for 2030. Energy | Waste | Industrial | Agriculture Processes Other Non-C02 Sources Not Modeled China United States India Russia Mexico ROW ------- Fire Protection Key Points HFC and RFC Emissions from Fire Protection Equipment Sector Description The fire protection sector emits HFCs and PFCs when total flooding fire suppression systems and portable fire extinguishers are used. GHG emissions from this sector were estimated at 21 MtCO2e in 2010. Under the baseline scenario, emissions are projected to increase significantly to 59 MtCO2e in 2030. GHG emissions from fire protection equipment are projected to nearly triple between 2010 and 2030. Total flooding fire suppression abatement options involve replacing hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and perfluorocarbons (PFCs) with lower-GWP alternatives, including both in-kind and not-in-kin measures. Any abatement potential in the fire protection equipment sector in 2030 is projected to cost $39 per tC02e or more. To reduce emissions by 4.6 MtC02e or more, costs of $50 per tC02e or more are projected. Emissions Reduction Potential Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the fire protection sector could be reduced by up to 6 MtCC^e in 2030. This accounts for 0.14% of the 4,615 MtC02e in global reduction potential in 2030. Refrigeration & Air Conditioning Abatement Measures Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices. FK-5-1-12 in new Class A total flooding applications Inert gas systems Water mist systems I 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 Reductions achievable at cost less than $0/tC02e Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tCO,e Energy Waste Industrial Processes Agriculture Global Non-CQ2 Emissions Fire Protection sector baseline emissions are estimated to be 21 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030, emissions from this source are projected to be 59 Projected Emissions in 2030 Emissions from Top 5 Emitting Countries (MtC02e) Rest of World: 36 MtC02e Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030 It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 0%, compared to the baseline, in 2030. An additional 11% reduction is available using technologies with increasingly higher costs. Reduction Potential Fire Protection 0.4% \ 0% Baseline: 59 MtC02e Residual Emissions Technically Feasible at Increasing Costs Reductions at No Cost Abatement Measures The abatement options explored replace HFCs and PFCs with zero- or low-GWP extinguishing agents to reduce CO2e emissions from the fire protection sector's total flooding equipment. The alternatives to HFCs and PFCs in total flooding equipment are both in-kind gaseous agents and not-in-kind options. The in-kind gaseous alternatives include CO2, inert gases, and fluorinated ketones, and the not-in-kind alternatives include varying materials and systems such as dispersed and condensed aerosol extinguishing systems, water sprinklers, water mist, foam, and inert gas generators. Abatement Potential From the options quantified, global abatement potential of emissions from total flooding fire suppression applications is projected to be 6.4 MtCO2e, or nearly 11% of baseline emissions, in 2030. There is little abatement potential at break-even prices below $50 per tCC^e in 2030, which is projected to have the potential to abate 4.6 MtCO2e from the fire protection sector, or 8% of baseline emissions. Energy | Waste | Industrial 1 Agriculture Other Non-C02 Processes Sources Not Modeled Australia China Japan Poland Mexico ROW ------- Aluminum P Key Points RFC Emissions from Primary Aluminum Production PFC emissions from aluminum production represent the third largest source of fluorinated greenhouse gas (F-GHG) emissions in the industrial sector. Primary abatement measures include installation of or upgrades to process computer control systems and the installation of systems to allow more precise alumina feeding. Abatement measures in this sector have the potential to reduce over half of the projected baseline emissions. Sector Description The aluminum production industry produces perfluorocarbon (PFC) emissions during brief process upset conditions in the aluminum smelting process. Despite a decline in global emissions of PFCs from primary aluminum production between 2000 and 2010, baseline emissions are projected to grow by 42%, from 26 MtCO2e in 2010 to 37 MtCO2e in 2030. Emissions Reduction Potential Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the aluminum production sector could be reduced by up to 22 MtCC^e in 2030. This accounts for 0.47% of the 4,615 MtC02e in global reduction potential in 2030. Aluminum Production 22 Refrigeration & Air Conditioning Abatement Measures Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices. Minor retrofit (process computer control systems only) Major retrofit (process computer control systems + alumina point feeding) 5 10 15 Reductions achievable at cost less than $0/tC02e Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tC02e Abatement Measures Abatement options in the primary aluminum production sector are primarily associated with installing or upgrading process computer control systems and alumina point-feed sys- tem. The options considered involve (1) a minor retrofit to upgrade the process computer control systems and (2) a major retrofit to the process computer control systems coupled with the installation of alumina point-feed systems. Primary Aluminum Production 0.3% Energy Waste Industrial Processes Agriculture Global Non-C02 Emissions Aluminum Production sector baseline emissions are estimated to be 26 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030, emissions from this source are projected to be 37 MtCO,e or 0.3% of total non-CO,emissions. Projected Emissions in 2030 Energy Waste Industrial Processes Agriculture Emissions from Top 5 Emitting Countries (MtC02e) Rest of World: 9 MtC02e Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030 It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 7%, compared to the baseline, in 2030. An additional 51% reduction is available using technologies with increasingly higher costs. Reduction Potential Baseline: 37 MtC02e Residual Emissions Technically Feasible at Increasing Costs Reductions at No Cost Other Non-C02 Sources Not Modeled China United States Russia Canada Australia ROW Abatement Potential Global abatement potential in the primary aluminum sector is projected to be 21.6 MtCO2e, or nearly 58% of baseline emissions in 2030. In the absence of any policy incentive to reduce PFC emissions, cost- effective abatement of 2.5 MtCC^e is available. Additional mitigation is feasible with the adoption of more costly mitigation measures. In 2030, mitigation measures with costs less than or equal to $30/tCO2e have the potential to reduce emissions by 17 MtCO2e, or 80% of the total abatement potential. ------- Key Points HCFC-22 Production Fluorinated Greenhouse Gas (F-GHG) Emissions from HCFC-22 Production Global abatement potential in the HCFC-22 production sector is 228 MtCt^e and 255 MtC02e, in 2020 and 2030, respectively, which equates to a 90% reduction from projected baseline emissions. Thermal oxidation is the only abatement option considered for the HCFC-22 production sector. The maximum abatement potential is achievable at costs below $1 per tCC-2. Sector Description Chlorodifluoromethane (HCFC-22) is used in emissive applications (air conditioning and refrigeration) as well as in feedstock for synthetic polymer production. The production of HCFC-22 generates HFC-23 as a by-product, which is separated as a vapor from the condensed HCFC-22; emissions occur through HFC-23 venting to the atmosphere. HFC-23 emissions were estimated at 128 MtCO2e and are projected to increase to 259 and 286 MtCO2e in 2020 and 2030, respectively. Because HCFC-22 depletes stratospheric ozone, its production is being phased out under the Montreal Protocol in areas apart from feedstock production. Emissions Reduction Potential Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the HCFC-22 production sector could be reduced by up to 255 MtCC^e in 2030. This accounts for 6% of the 4,615 MtC02e in global reduction potential in 2030. HCFC-22 Production 255 Abatement Measures Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices. Thermal oxidation 0 50 100 150 200 250 I Reductions achievable at cost less than $0/tC02e Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tC02e Refrigeration & Air Conditioning Abatement Measures Thermal oxidation is the only abatement option considered in this analysis for the HCFC-22 production sector. Thermal oxidation is a demonstrated technology that oxidizes HFC-23 to carbon dioxide (CO2), hydrogen fluoride, and water for the destruction of halogenated organic compounds. This process is assumed to be compatible with all facilities. Energy Waste Industrial Processes Agriculture Global Non-CO, Emissions HCFC-22 Production sector baseline emissions are estimated to be 128 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030, emissions from this source are projected to be 286 MtCCXe or 2% of total non-CO, emissions. Projected Emissions in 2030 Emissions from Top 5 Emitting Countries (MtC02e) Rest of World: 19 MtC02e Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030 It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 0%, compared to the baseline, in 2030. An additional 89% reduction is available using technologies with increasingly higher costs. Reduction Potential HCFC-22 Production 2% 29 Baseline: 286 MtC02e Residual Emissions Technically Feasible at Increasing Costs Reductions at No Cost Abatement Potential Global abatement potential of HFC-23 in 2030 is 255 MtCO2e, approximately 89% of projected baseline emissions. The analysis assumes that facilities in most developed countries have already adopted abatement measures. As a result, abatement potential is limited to developing countries. Maximum abatement potential is achievable at a cost of between $0 and $1 per tCO2e. Energy Waste | Industrial Processes Agriculture Other Non-C02 Sources Not Modeled China India Mexico South Korea Venezuela ROW ------- Key Points Semiconductor Manufacturing Fluorinated Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Semiconductor Manufacturing Baseline emissions from semiconductor manufacturing are projected to increase slowly from 18 MtC02e in 2010 to 22 MtC02e in 2030. The global abatement potential ranges from 0.2 MtCG^e at today's forecasted energy prices to the technological maximum potential of 4.2 MtC02e. 20% of the total abatement potential in this sector is achievable at costs at or below $30/tC02e. Sector Description The semiconductor manufacturing industry uses several fluorinated greenhouse gases (F-GHGs), including sulfur hexafluoride (SFg), nitrogen trifluoride (NF3), and perfluorcarbons during fabrication. Trace amounts of these gases are incidentally released into the atmosphere through normal fabrication activities. In 2010, 18 MtCO2e of emissions were produced from the semiconductor manufacturing sector. Emissions Reduction Potential Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the semiconductor manufacturing sector could be reduced by up to 4 MtCC^e in 2030. This accounts for 0.09% of the 4,615 MtC02e in global reduction potential in 2030. Semiconductor Manufacturing 4 Refrigeration & Air Conditioning Abatement Measures Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices. Thermal abatement NF3 remote clean Gas replacement I Process optimization I Catalytic abatement I Plasma abatement I 0123 Reductions achievable at cost less than $0/tC02e Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tCO e Energy Waste Industrial Processes Agriculture Global Non-C02 Emissions Semiconductor Manufacturing sector baseline emissions are estimated to be 18 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030, emissions from this source are projected to be 22 MtCO,e or 0.2% of total non-CO, emissions. Projected Emissions in 2030 Emissions from Top 5 Emitting Countries (MtC02e) Rest of World: 4 MtC02e Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030 It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 1%, compared to the baseline, in 2030. An additional 19% reduction is available using technologies with increasingly higher costs. Reduction Potential 1% 3 / Semiconductor Manufacturing 0.2% Baseline: 22 MtC02e Residual Emissions Technically Feasible at Increasing Costs Reductions at No Cost Abatement Measures Despite rapid growth between 2000 and 2010, the semiconductor manufacturing industry experienced a stark decline in F-GHG emissions, decreasing from 28 MtCC^e in 2000 to 18 MtCO2e in 2010. This decline can be attributed to voluntary emissions reduction goals set by the World Semiconductor Council. Additionally, six abatement technologies were considered to further reduce emissions from this sector: thermal abatement systems, catalytic abatement systems, plasma abatement systems, NF3 remote chamber clean process, gas replacement, and process optimization. Abatement Potential Global F-GHG abatement potential in the semiconductor manufacturing industry is estimated to be 4.6 MtCO2e and 4.2 MtCO2e in 2020 and 2030, respectively, which correspond to 23% and 20% of business as usual (BAU) emissions from this sector. In 2030, the abatement potential of 1 MtCC^e, or 4%, is achievable at abatement costs below $30 per tCO2e. Energy | Waste | Industrial Processes Agriculture Other Non-C02 Sources Not Modeled China United States Japan Singapore South Korea ROW ------- Electric Power Systems (EPS) SF6 from Electric Power Systems Key Points The global abatement potential ranges from 7.5 MtCt^e to 42.8 MtCt^e in 2030. Abatement measures include technologies and handling practices to manage SF emissions and prevent leakage during servicing and disposal. The abatement potential at cost-effective carbon prices ($5/tC02e) is projected to reduce baseline emissions by 56% in 2030. Sector Description Electric power systems (EPSs) use transmission and distribution equipment that contains sulfur hexafluoride (SFg), a potent GHG with a global warming potential 23,900 times that of carbon dioxide. Emissions occur through unintentional leaking of equipment and improper handling practices during servicing and disposal. Global baseline emissions from this sector were estimated at 44 MtCO2e in 2010. Emissions are projected to increase to 64 MtCO2e in 2030, a 45% increase. Emissions Reduction Potential Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the electric power systems sector could be reduced by up to 43 MtCC^e in 2030. This accounts for 1% of the 4,615 MtCC^e in global reduction potential in 2030. Electric Power Systems 43 Refrigeration & Air Conditioning Abatement Measures Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices. Improved SF6 handling SF6 recycling Leak detection and leak repair Equipment refurbishment 0 5 10 15 20 25 H Reductions achievable at cost less than $0/tC02e B Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tCO,e Abatement Measures Abatement measures that reduce emissions in the EPS sector include SFg recycling, leak detection and repair (LDAR), equipment refurbishment, and improved SFg handling. These new technologies and handling practices have largely been adopted in Europe and Japan. SFg recycling is commonly practiced in the United States, but there remains significant potential for further reductions through improved SFg handling and upgraded or refurbished equipment. Energy Waste Industrial Processes Agriculture Global Non-C02 Emissions The Electric Power Systems sector baseline emissions are estimated to be 44 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030, emissions from this source are projected to be 64 MtC02e or 0.5% of total non-C02 emissions. Projected Emissions in 2030 Energy Waste Electric Power Systems 0.5% Emissions from Top 5 Emitting Countries (MtC02e) Rest of World: 18 MtC02e | Industrial Processes Agriculture Other Non-C02 Sources Not Modeled China United States India Brazil South Korea ROW Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030 It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 12%, compared to the baseline, in 2030. An additional 55% reduction is available using technologies with increasingly higher costs. Reduction Potential Baseline: 64 MtC02e Residual Emissions Technically Feasible at Increasing Costs Reductions at No Cost Abatement Potential Global abatement potential in this sector is projected to be 34 MtCC^e in 2020 and 43 MtCO2e in 2030, which corresponds to approximately two thirds of the business as usual (BAU) baseline emissions, respectively. Significant reductions are available at relatively low cost. For example, emission reduction technologies that cost up to $5 per tCO2e, can reduce emissions by 35 MtCC>2e, accounting for 84% of the technologically feasible emissions reductions in 2030. ------- Magnesium Production SF6 Emissions from Magnesium Production Key Points The global abatement potential of 98% is achieved through three abatement measures that substitute SF6 with alternative gases. From 2010 to 2030, SFg emissions are projected to stay in the range of 5 MtCO^e Full abatement potential can be achieved at break-even prices of $5/tC02e or less. Sector Description Magnesium production uses sulfur hexafluoride (SFg) as a cover gas during production and casting to prevent spontaneous combustion of molten magnesium in the presence of air. The use of SFg can result in fugitive emissions during manufacturing processes. Advanced initiatives in the magnesium industry to phase out the use of SFg have resulted in a 50% reduction in global SFg emissions from 10 MtCO2e to 5 MtCO2e between 2000 and 2010. Emissions Reduction Potential Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the magnesium production sector could be reduced by up to 5 MtCC^e in 2030. This accounts for 0.11% of the 4,615 MtC02e in global reduction potential in 2030. Abatement Measures Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices. Alternate cover gas - NovecTM612 Alternate cover gas - HFC-134a Oil & Natural Gas Systems Alternate cover gas - S02 Magnesium Production o.o 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 Refrigeration & Air Conditioning Reductions achievable at cost less than $0/tC02e Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tC02e Energy Waste Industrial Processes Agriculture Global Non-C02 Emissions The Magnesium Production sector baseline emissions are estimated to be 5 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030, emissions from this source are projected to Projected Emissions in 2030 Emissions from Top 5 Emitting Countries (MtC02e) Rest of World: 0.08 MtC02e Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030 It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 97%, compared to the baseline, in 2030. An additional 1% reduction is available using technologies with increasingly higher costs. Reduction Potential 0.56 Magnesium Production 0.04% Baseline: 5 MtC02e Residual Emissions Technically Feasible at Increasing Costs Reductions at No Cost Abatement Measures Three abatement measures are available for reducing SFg emissions in production and processing, all of which involve replacing SFg with an alternative cover gas: SO2, HFC-134a, or Novec 612. Although toxicity, odor, and corrosive properties are a concern of using SC>2 as a cover gas, it can potentially eliminate SFg emissions entirely through improved containment and pollution control systems. HFC-134a, along with other fluorinated gas, contains fewer associated health, odor, and corrosive impacts than SO2, but it does have global warming potential. Novec 612 is currently being used in a diecasting facility, and the replacement of SFg with Novec 612 is under evaluation. Abatement Potential The global abatement potential of SFg emissions in the magnesium sector is 5 MtCC>2e, approximately 98% of projected emissions. The maximum reduction potential for the suite of reduction technologies is 98% of projected emissions in 2030. These reductions can be achieved at a cost of less than $5/tCC>2e. Energy Waste | Industrial Processes Agriculture Other Non-C02 Sources Not Modeled China Russia Kazakhstan Israel Ukraine ROW ------- Photovoltaic Cell Manufacturing Fluorinated Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Photovoltaic Cell Manufacturing Key Points The global abatement potential in the photovoltaic (PV) manufacturing sector ranges from less than 0.1 MtC02e to 1.7 MtC02e in 2030. Reduction technologies include technologies that reduce fluorinated greenhousi gas (F-GHG) emissions through etch and/or chamber cleaning processes. The high costs of emissions reduction technologies combined with low emission: reductions lead to abatement costs greater than $200/tC02e. Sector Description The PV cell manufacturing process often uses multiple F-GHGs during production, some of which are released into the atmosphere. Baseline emissions were estimated at 2.3 MtCO2e in 2010. A reduction in baseline emissions is anticipated in both 2020 and 2030, declining to an estimated 2.1 MtCO2e and 1.9 MtCO2e, respectively. Emissions Reduction Potential Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the photovoltaic cell manufacturing sector could be reduced by up to 2 MtCC^e in 2030. This accounts for 0.04% of the 4,615 MtC02e in global reduction potential in 2030. Photovoltaic Cell Manufacturing 2 Abatement Measures Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices. NF3 remote clean Thermal abatement Catalytic abatement Plasma abatement I Refrigeration & Air Conditioning 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 I Reductions achievable at cost less than $0/tC02e Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tC02e Abatement Measures Abatement measures considered for reducing F-GHG emissions from the PV manufacturing sector include thermal abatement systems, catalytic abatement systems, plasma abatement systems, and the nitrogen trifluoride (NF3) remote chamber clean process. These technologies have the potential to reduce emissions from etch and/or chamber clean processes by 90%. Energy Waste Industrial Processes Agriculture Global Non-C02 Emissions The Photovoltaic Cell Manufacturing sector baseline emissions are estimated to be 2 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030, emissions from this source are projected to Projected Emissions in 2030 Emissions from Top 5 Emitting Countries (MtC02e) Rest of World: 0.29 MtC02e Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030 It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 0%, compared to the baseline, in 2030. An additional 90% reduction is available using technologies with increasingly higher costs. Reduction Potential 0.09 0.19 Photovoltaic Cell Manufacturing 0.01% Baseline: 2 MtC02e Residual Emissions Technically Feasible at Increasing Costs Reductions at No Cost Energy Waste | Industrial Processes Agriculture Other Non-C02 Sources Not Modeled China Japan Germany Malaysia South Korea ROW Abatement Potential The global abatement potential in the PV manufacturing sector is estimated to be 1.9 MtCO2e in 2020 and 1.7 MtCO2e in 2030, or 90% of baseline emissions in each year. High capital costs and low emissions reductions associated with the available abatement measures result in abatement costs greater than $200/tCO2e. No statistically significant emissions reductions are available at abatement costs below $200. ------- Flat Panel Display Manufacturing Fluorinated Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Flat Panel Display Manufacturing Key Points The global abatement potential of flat panel display (FPD) manufacturing processes is 10 MtC02e in 2030,80% of baseline emissions. Six abatement options were analyzed to reduce emissions from etch and/or clean processes. No abatement potential is achievable at carbon prices below $25/tC02e. Sector Description FPD manufacturing processes produce fluorinated greenhouse gas (F-GHG) emissions, including sulfur hexafluoride (SFg), nitrogen trifluoride (NF3), and carbon tetrafluoride (CF^). Global baseline emissions from the FPD manufacturing sector in 2010 were estimated at 7 MtCO2e. Baseline emissions for 2020 are projected to increase to approximately 12 MtCO2e and remain at 12 MtCO2e through 2030. Emissions Reduction Potential Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the flat panel display manufacturing sector could be reduced by up to 10 MtCC^e in 2030. This accounts for 0.21% of the 4,615 MtC02e in global reduction potential in 2030. Flat Panel Display Manufacturing 10 Refrigeration & Air Conditioning Abatement Measures Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices. Thermal abatement NF3 remote clean Catalytic abatement Central abatement system I Plasma abatement | Gas replacement I 012345 I Reductions achievable at cost less than $0/tC02e Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tCO e Energy Waste Industrial Processes Agriculture Global Non-C02 Emissions The Flat Panel Display Manufacturing sector baseline emissions are estimated to be 7 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030, emissions from this source are projected to be 12 MtC02e or 0.1% of total non-CO, emissions. Projected Emissions in 2030 Emissions from Top 5 Emitting Countries (MtC02e) Rest of World: 0.0 MtC02e Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030 It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 0%, compared to the baseline, in 2030. An additional 80% reduction is available using technologies with increasingly higher costs. Reduction Potential 0.1 Flat Panel Display Manufacturing 0.1% Baseline: 2 MtC02e Residual Emissions Technically Feasible at Increasing Costs Reductions at No Cost Abatement Measures Six abatement options were considered for the FPD manufacturing sector: central abatement, thermal abatement, catalytic abatement, plasma abatement, NF3 remote chamber clean, and gas replacement. These systems are applicable to reducing emissions from etch and/or clean processes. Thermal abatement systems represent the largest abatement potential, accounting for 40% of emissions reductions in the FPD manufacturing sector. Abatement Potential Global abatement of F-GHGs in the FPD manufacturing sector is estimated to be 9 MtCO2e in 2020 and 10 MtCO2e in 2030, which equates to 80% abatement from projected baseline emissions. At a break-even price of $30, just over 2 MtCO2e in emissions reductions is achievable in 2030. No emissions reductions are possible at prices below $25. Energy Waste | Industrial Processes Agriculture Other Non-C02 Sources Not Modeled China South Korea Japan Singapore ROW ------- ivestoc Key Points Emissions from Livestock Operations The livestock sector accounts for 21% of baseline non-Ct^ emissions in 2030. The largest low-cost reductions in emissions resulted from implementation of strategies to improve feed conversion efficiency, incorporate feed supplements, and increase the use of small-scale anaerobic digesters. The technologically feasible abatement potential of the livestock sector is 267 MtC02e in 2030,10% of baseline emissions. Sector Description Livestock operations generate methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions. The greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions mainly come from two sources: enteric fermentation and manure management. Methane is produced as a by-product of the digestive process in animals through a microbial fermentation process. Manure N2O emissions result from nitrification and denitrification of the nitrogen that is excreted in manure and urine. Global baseline emissions from the livestock sector were estimated to grow from 2,202 to 2,729 MtCO2e from 2010 to 2030. Emissions Reduction Potential Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the livestock sector could be reduced by up to 269 MtCC^e in 2030. This accounts for 6% of the 4,615 MtC02e in global reduction potential in 2030. Livestock Oil & Natu Gas Systems Livestock 269 Refrigeration & Air Conditioning Abatement Measures Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices. Antimethanogen Propionate precursors Improved feed conversion Large-scale complete mix digester i with engine ' Large-scale covered lagoon with engine | Large-scale complete mix digester without engine Large-scale covered lagoon without engine | Intensive grazing Antibiotics | Large-scale fixed-film digester with engine | Large-scale fixed-film digester i without engine > Other measures Energy Waste Industrial Processes Agriculture Global Non-C02 Emissions The Livestock sector baseline emissions are estimated to be 2,286 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030, emissions from this source are projected to be 2,729 MtC02eor21%of total non-C02 emissions. Projected Emissions in 2030 Emissions from Top 5 Emitting Countries (MtCO e) Rest of World: 1,553 MtC02e 186 Livestock 21% 4t 246 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Reductions achievable at cost less than $0/tC02e Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tC02e Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030 It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 3%, compared to the baseline, in 2030. An additional 7% reduction is available using technologies with increasingly higher costs. Reduction Potential 3% Baseline: 2,729 MtCO,e Residual Emissions Technically Feasible at Increasing Costs Reductions at No Cost Abatement Measures The report considered six enteric fermentation (CH4) abatement measures: improved feed conversion efficiency, antibiotics, bovine soma- trotropin (bST), propionate precur- sors, antimethanogen vaccines, and intensive pasture management. It also included two manure management (N2O) abatement measures: small and large digesters (complete-mix, plug- flow, fixed film) and covered lagoons. The largest reductions resulted from implementation of antimethanogen vaccines, propionate precursors, and small digesters. Abatement Potential Technologically feasible global abatement potential for the livestock sector was estimated at 267 MtCC^e in 2030, a 10% reduction compared to the baseline. In 2030, a reduction of 58 MtCC>2e is cost-effective under current projections and 162 MtCO2e would be possible at an abatement costof$30/tCO2e. Energy Waste Industrial Processes Agriculture Other Non-C02 Sources Not Modeled India China Brazil United States Pakistan ROW ------- Methane (CH4) and Nitrous Oxide (N20) Emissions from Rice Cultivation Key Points The rice cultivation sector accounts for 6% of baseline non-C02 emissions in 2030. Among five abatement measures evaluated, switching to dryland production provides the largest emissions reductions. The technologically feasible reduction potential of the rice cultivation sector is 200 MtC02e in 2030,26% of baseline sector emissions. Sector Description Rice cultivation is a source of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions, and changes in soil organic carbon (C) stocks. When paddy fields are flooded, decomposition of organic material depletes the oxygen in the soil and floodwater, causing anaerobic conditions. Human activities influence soil N2O emissions (use of fertilizers and other crop management practices) and soil C stocks (residue and crop yield management). Global baseline emissions from the rice cultivation sector were estimated to grow from 565 to 756 MtCO2e from 2010 to 2030. Emissions Reduction Potential Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the rice sector could be reduced by up to 200 MtC02e in 2030. This accounts for 4% of the 4,615 MtC02e in global reduction potential in 2030. Refrigeration & Air Conditioning Energy I Waste I lndustrial I Agriculture 1 Processes Global Non-C02 Emissions The Rice Cultivation sector baseline emissions are estimated to be 565 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030, emissions from this source are projected to be Projected Emissions in 2030 Emissions from Top 5 Emitting Countries (MtCO e) Rest of World: 176 MtC02e Abatement Measures Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices. Mid-season drainage with 50% residue incorporation and 30% reduced fertilizer usage Switch CF to dry land with 50% residue incorporation Switch CF to Mid-season drainage with 100% residue incorporation Switch CF to Mid-season dra inage with 50% residue and 30% reduced fertilizer usage Switch CF to dry land with 50% residue and 20% reduced fertilizer usage Switch from RF to base with 50% residue incorporation and auto-fertilization Switch Rain-fed to CF with 50% residue incorporation and use of nitrogen inhibitors Switch from CF to Mid-season drainage use of slow release fertilizer Switch Rain-fed to CF with 50% residue incorporation and no tillage Switch from CFto Mid-season drainage with 50% residue and dry-seeding Switch Mid-season drainage to AWD with 50% residue incorporation and use of nitrogen inhibitors Switch from CFto Mid-season drainage with no till practices Abatement Measures Five types of abatement measures were considered: paddy flooding (continuous, mid-season, alternating, dry), crop residue incorporation (50% and 100%), tillage (conventional and no- till), fertilization application (conventional, ammonium sulfate, nitrification inhibitor, slow-release, reduced use, auto fertilization), and direct seeding. Switching to dry-land production provides the largest emissions reductions, though it results in major reductions in rice yield. Other measures I 16.20 86.91 12 Reductions achievable at cost less than $0/tC02e Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tCO e Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030 It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 8%, compared to the baseline, in 2030. An additional 18% reduction is available using technologies with increasingly higher costs. Reduction Potential 18% 8% Baseline: 756 MtC02e Residual Emissions Technically Feasible at Increasing Costs Reductions at No Cost Abatement Potential Technologically feasible global abatement potential for the rice cultivation sector was estimated at 203 MtCO2e in 2020 and 200 MtCO2e in 2030, 28% and 26% reductions compared to the baseline. In 2030, a reduction of 58 MtCC>2e at an abatement cost of $0/tCO2e and 135 MtCO2e would be possible at a cost of $30/tCO2e. Energy Waste | Industrial Processes Agriculture Other Non-C02 Sources Not Modeled India Bangladesh Indonesia China Vietnam ROW ------- Key Points Non-rice Croplands The global emission reduction potential of the croplands sector is 56 MtCf^e in 2030,12% of baseline emissions. Seven abatement options were analyzed to reduce soil management emissions. Over 80% of reductions result from the implementation of no-till cultivation and reduced fertilizer applications. Sector Description Land management in croplands influences soil nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions (influenced by fertilization practices, soil drainage, and nitrogen mineralization), methane (CH4) fluxes, and soil organic carbon (C) stocks (and associated carbon dioxide [CC^] fluxes to the atmosphere). The report considers only major crops (barley, maize, sorghum, soybeans, and wheat) and minor crops closely related to these (rye, lentils, other beans, and oats). Global baseline emissions from the croplands sector in 2010 were estimated at 474 MtCC>2e. Projected emissions are relatively constant, decreasing to approximately 460 MtCO2e in 2020 and rebounding to 472 MtCO2e by 2030. Emissions Reduction Potential Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the cropland sector could be reduced by up to 56 MtC02e in 2030. This accounts for 1% of the 4,615 MtC02e in global reduction potential in 2030. Global Non-C02 Emissions The Croplands sector baseline emissions are estimated to be 474 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030, emissions from this source are projected to be 472 Croplands Refrigeration & Air Conditioning Abatement Measures Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices. No tillage 20% reduced fertilizer use Use nitrogen inhibitors Split fertilizer 100% residue incorporation I Croplands 56 Energy 20% increase in fertilizer use Waste Industrial Processes Agriculture Projected Emissions in 2030 Emissions from Top 5 Emitting Countries (MtCO e) Rest of World: 168 MtC02e 0 5 10 15 20 25 Reductions achievable at cost less than $0/tC02e Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tC02e Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030 It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 5.4%, compared to the baseline, in 2030. An additional 6.4% reduction is available using technologies with increasingly higher costs. Reduction Potential " 5.4% Baseline: 472 MtC02e Residual Emissions Technically Feasible at Increasing Costs Reductions at No Cost Abatement Measures Six abatement measures were considered for the croplands sector: adoption of no-till cultivation, reduced fertilizer application, increased fertilizer application, split nitrogen fertilization, application of nitrification inhibitors, and crop residue incorporation. Before 2020, the majority of reductions result from the implementation of no-till cultivation (70% in 2010, 60% in 2020). In 2030, the majority of reductions (96%) are shared between no-till, reduced fertilization, and nitrification inhibitors. Energy Waste Industrial Processes Agriculture Other Non-C02 Sources Not Modeled China United States India Brazil Argentina ROW Abatement Potential Technologically feasible global abatement potential in the croplands sector is estimated to be 70 MtCC^e in 2020 and 56 MtCO2e in 2030, representing 15% and 12% reductions compared to the baseline. In 2030, abatement measures that break even (i.e., < $0/tCO2e) can reduce nearly 30 MtCC>2e. Additional reductions are achievable with the inclusion of more costly abatement measures. For example, the level of reduced emissions increases to 37 MtCC^e by including abatement measures with implementation costs less than or equal to $30/tCO2e. ------- CQ o 35 o 0 0 Q- ^ a o o» 0 o' Tl 3 CQ O O O an £ 0 w m 0 03 ^ - 2- o 0 CQ 0 O m --, I ' ': - ------- |