United States Environmental Protection Agency Office of Atmospheric Programs (6207J) Washington, DC 20005 EPA-430-S-14-001 March 2014 Global Mitigation of Non-C02 Greenhouse Gases: 2010-2030 jcutive Summary
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Table of Contents
Introduction 2
Energy
Coal Mining 4
Oil and Natural Gas Systems 6
Waste
Landfills 8
Wastewater 10
Industrial Processes
Nitric and Adipic Acid Production 12
Refrigeration and Air Conditioning 14
Solvents 16
Foams Manufacturing, Use, and Disposal 18
Aerosols 20
Fire Protection 22
Aluminum Production 24
HCFC-22 Production 26
Semiconductor Manufacturing 28
Electric Power Systems 30
Magnesium Production 32
Photovoltaic Cell Manufacturing 34
Flat Panel Display Manufacturing 36
Agriculture
Livestock 38
Rice Cultivation 40
Croplands 42
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Introduction
Climate change is influenced by a number of social and
environmental factors. The change in our Earth's climate is
largely driven by emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) to
the atmosphere. While some GHG emissions occur through
natural processes, the largest share of GHG emissions come
from human activities. GHG emissions from anthropogenic
sources have increased significantly over a relatively
short time frame (-100 years) and are projected to grow
appreciably over the next 20 years.
Policy development and planning efforts are underway at
all levels of society to identify climate change strategies
that effectively reduce future greenhouse gas emissions
and prepare communities to adapt to the Earth's changing
climate. GHG mitigation analysis continues to play an
important role in the formation of climate change policy. A
large body of research has been dedicated to analyzing ways
to reduce carbon dioxide (CC^) emissions.
While this work is critical to developing effective climate
policy, other GHG gases can play an important role in the
effort to address global climate change. These non-carbon
dioxide (non-CC^) GHGs include methane (CH4), nitrous
oxide (N2O), and a number of industrial gases such as
fluorinated gases.
Non-CO2 greenhouse gases are more potent than CO2 (per
unit weight) at trapping heat within the atmosphere. Global
warming potential (GWP) is the factor that quantifies the
heat trapping potential of each GHG relative to that of
carbon dioxide (CC^). For example, methane has a GWP
value of 21 which means that each molecule of methane
released into the atmosphere is 21 more times effective at
trapping heat compared to an equivalent unit of CC^. The
table shows the list of GHG gases with their GWP values
that are considered in this report.
Marginal abatement cost curves (MACCs) are an analytical
tool commonly used in mitigation analysis to assist policy
makers in understanding the opportunities for reducing
GHG emissions and the relative cost of implementation.
MACCs provide information on the amount of
emissions reductions that can be achieved as well as
an estimate of the costs of implementing the GHG
abatement measures. This figure shows the Global
MACC for all non-CO2 GHGs in 2030. Worldwide,
the potential for cost-effective non-CO2 GHG
abatement is significant. The figure shows the global total
aggregate MAC for the year 2030. Without a price signal
(i.e., at $0/tCO2e), the global mitigation potential is
greater than 1,800 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent
(MtCC^e), or 12% of the baseline emissions. As the
break-even price rises, the mitigation potential grows.
Significant mitigation opportunities could be realized in
the lower range of break-even prices. For example, the
mitigation potential at a price of $10/tCO2e is greater
than 3,000 MtCO2e, or 20% of the baseline emissions,
and greater than 3,600 MtCC^e or 24% of the baseline
emissions at $20/tCO2e. In the higher range of break-
even prices, the MACC becomes steeper, and less
mitigation potential exists for each additional increase in
price.
As the figure shows, higher levels of emissions reductions
are achievable at higher abatement costs expressed in
dollars per metric ton of CO2 equivalent ($ftCO^e)
reduced. The quantity of emissions that can be reduced,
or the abatement potential, is constrained by the
availability and effectiveness of the abatement measures
(emission reduction technologies).
Global MACC for Non-C02 Greenhouse Gases in 2030
Greenhouse Gases
Carbon Dioxide
Methane
Nitrous Oxide
Hydrofluorocarbons
Sulfur Hexafluoride
Abbreviation
C02
CH4
N20
HFCs
SF6
GWP
(100 year)
1
21
310
140 to 11, 700
23,900
1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500
Non-C02 Reductions (MtC02e)
About this Report
USEPA has recently updated its International MACC model for the Non-C02 anthropogenic
sources that include energy, waste, industrial processes, and agricultural activities. The
results of this analysis are published in the EPA report Global Mitigation of Non-C02
Greenhouse Gases: 2010-2030and include improved country-level resolution and increased
transparency in the economic and technological assumptions underlying the abatement
measures considered in the analysis. This report is intended to provide a brief summary
of the abatement potential and costs of implementing specific abatement technologies.
Readers interested in more technical details of the analysis should refer to the full technical
report, which is available at EPA's International Non-C02 Mitigation web page.1
!The Global Mitigation of Non-C02 Greenhouse Gases: 2010-2030 report is available at:
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/EPAactivities/economics/nonco2mitigation.html
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CH4 Emissions from Underground Coal Mining
Sector Description
Coal is an important energy source for
many of the world's economies; it is used
for energy generation or as a feedstock
for industrial production. However,
coal mining is a significant source of
anthropogenic GHG emissions. Extracting
coal through underground and surface
mining releases methane (CIrLi) stored in
the coal bed and the surrounding geology.
According to the U.S. Energy Information
Administration's most recent international
energy outlook, coal production is
projected to increase by 22% between
2012 and 2040, reflecting continued
economic and industrial development of
the world's emerging economies.
Emissions Reduction Potential
Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the coal mining
sector could be reduced by up to 468 MtCC^e in 2030. This accounts for 10% of
the 4,615 MtC02e in global reduction potential in 2030.
Coal Mining
468
Energy
Waste
Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Global Non-C02 Emissions
Coal Mining sector baseline emissions are estimated
to be 589 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030, emissions
from this source are projected to be 784 MtC02e or
6% of total non-CO, emissions.
Coal Mining
6%
Projected Emissions in 2030
Emissions from Top 5 Emitting Countries (MtCO e)
Rest of World: 151 MtC02e
51
78
31
436
37
Energy | Waste
| Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Other Non-C02
Sources Not Modeled
China United States Russia Australia Ukraine ROW
Key Points
Coal mining accounted for 8% of total global anthropogenic methane emissions in 2010, and
these emissions are projected to increase by 33% to 784 MtCC^e by 2030.
The global abatement potential is projected to be 50 to 468 tCf^e, or 6 to 60% of baseline
emissions, in 2030. Cost-effective abatement potential ($0 break-even price) is 77.7 tCIhe,
or 10% of baseline.
The technological maximum potential ($100+ break-even price) is 467.6 tCC^e, or 60% of
baseline.
Abatement Measures
Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices.
VAM oxidation
Degasification for
pipeline injection
Degasification for
power generation
Open flare
On-site use in coal
drying
On-site use in mine boiler
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Reductions achievable at cost less than $0/tC02e
Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tCO e
Abatement Measures
Five abatement measures were
considered in this analysis, including
recovery for pipeline injection, power
generation, process heating, flaring,
and catalytic or thermal oxidation
of ventilation air methane (VAM).
These reduction technologies consist
of one or more of the following
primary components: 1) a drainage
and recovery system to remove
methane from the underground coal
seam, 2) the end-use application for
the gas recovered from the drainage
system, and 3) the VAM recovery or
mitigation system.
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Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030
It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 10%, compared to the
baseline, in 2030. An additional 50% reduction is available using
technologies with increasingly higher costs.
Reduction Potential
50%
10%
Baseline: 784 MtC02e
Residual
Emissions
Technically Feasible
at Increasing Costs
Reductions at
No Cost
Abatement Potential
Approximately 60% of total annual
emissions in 2030 can be reduced
through the adoption of the suite
of abatement measures considered.
The marginal abatement cost
curve (MACC) results suggest
that significant reductions in CH4
emissions can be achieved at
break-even prices at or below
$10/tCO2e. Furthermore, reductions
of approximately 78 MtCO2e are
cost-effectively achievable at a
break-even price of $0/tCO2e.
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Oil and Natural Gas
CH4 Emissions from Oil and Natural Gas Systems
Key Points
The technological maximum for emissions reduction potential in oil and gas is
1,219 MtC02e, approximately 58% of projected emissions in 2030.
Because of the energy value of the methane captured, EPA estimates that 747
MtC02e, or 40% of the baseline emissions, can be cost-effectively reduced.
Over 26% of total abatement potential is achieved by adopting abatement
measures in the oil and gas production segments.
Sector Description
Oil and natural gas systems are one of
the leading emitters of anthropogenic
CH4, releasing 1,677 MtCO2e, or
23% of total global CH4 emissions
in 2010. The top five CH4 emitters
from oil and natural gas systems in
2010 were Russia, the United States,
Iraq, Kuwait, and Uzbekistan. Global
emissions from the oil and natural
gas system are projected to grow 26%
between 2010 and 2030, with Brazil
and Iraq experiencing the highest
growth rate at 128% and 100%,
respectively.
Emissions Reduction Potential
Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the oil and
natural gas systems sector could be reduced by up to 1,219 MtCC^e in 2030. This
accounts for 26% of the 4,615 MtCC^e in global reduction potential in 2030.
Oil & Natural
Gas Systems
1,219
Refrigeration &
Air Conditioning
Abatement Measures
Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices.
Directed inspection & maintenance
Installing plunger lift systems in gas wells
Reduce emission completions for hydraulically
fractured natural gas wells
Fuel gas retrofit for BD valve - take
recip. compressors offline
Installing catalytic converters on
gas engines and turbines
Replacingwet seals with dry seals in
centrifugal compressors
Installing surge vessels for capturing
blowdown vents
Replacing high-bleed pneumatic devices in the
natural gas industry
Reciprocating compressor rod packing
(Static-Pac)
Installingflash tank separators on dehydrators
Other measures
50
100
150
200
250 275
Energy
Waste
Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Global Non-C02 Emissions
Oil and Natural Gas Systems baseline emissions are
estimated to be 1,677 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030,
emissions from this source are projected to be 2,113
MtC02e or 16% of total non-C02 emissions.
Oil & Natural Gas Systems
16%
Projected Emissions in 2030
Emissions from Top 5 Emitting Countries (MtCO e)
Rest of World: 971 MtC02e
I Reductions achievable at cost less than $0/tC02e
Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tC02e
Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030
It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 35%, compared to the
baseline, in 2030. An additional 23% reduction is available using
technologies with increasingly higher costs.
Reduction Potential
313
418
107
188
23%
116
Baseline: 2,113 MtC02e
Residual
Emissions
Technically Feasible
at Increasing Costs
Reductions at
No Cost
Energy | Waste
Abatement Measures
Numerous abatement measures are
available to mitigate CH4 emissions
across the four oil and natural gas
system segments of production,
processing, transmission, and
distribution. The measures may be
applied to various components or
equipment commonly used in oil
and natural gas system segments.
The abatement measures typically
fall into three categories: equipment
modifications/upgrades; changes in
operational practices, including direct
inspection and maintenance; and
installation of new equipment.
Abatement Potential
In 2010, the global abatement
potential in the oil and natural
gas sector is projected to be 997
MtCC>2e, or 60% of total emissions.
The abatement potential increases
over time growing to 1,103 and
1,218 MtCO2e in 2020 and 2030,
respectively. Nearly 70% of the
emissions reductions in 2030 are
achievable at break-even prices at or
below $5.
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Processes
Agriculture
Other Non-C02
Sources Not Modeled
Russia United States Iraq Kuwait Uzbekistan ROW
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,ey Points
Global abatement potential from landfills is 589 MtC02e, roughly 61% of
projected baseline emissions in 2030.
Abatement measures with costs below $20/tC02e can achieve a 30% reduction
baseline emissions.
Abatement measures include (1) conversion of landfill gas to energy and (2)
waste diversion projects that use waste in the production of new products.
Sector Description
Landfills produce methane in
combination with other landfill
gases (LFGs) through the natural
process of bacterial decomposition
of organic waste under anaerobic
conditions. LFG is generated over
a period of several decades with gas
flows usually beginning 1 to 2 years
after the waste is put in place. The
amount of methane generated by
landfills per country is determined
by a number of factors that include
population size, the quantity of waste
disposed of per capita, composition of
the waste disposed of, and the waste
management practices applied at the
landfill.
Global Non-CQ, Emissions
Landfills sector baseline emissions are estimated to
be 847 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030, emissions from
this source are projected to be 959 MtC02e or 7% of
total non-CO, emissions.
Landfills
7%
Emissions Reduction Potential
Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the landfill
sector could be reduced by up to 589 MtCC^e in 2030. This accounts for
13% of the 4,615 MtC02e in global reduction potential in 2030.
Landfills
Landfills
589
Refrigeration &
Air Conditioning
Energy
Waste
Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Projected Emissions in 2030
Emissions from Top 5 Emitting Countries (MtCO e)
Rest of World: 632 MtC02e
40
Abatement Measures
Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices.
Electricity generation w/ reciprocating engine
Waste to energy (WTE)
Mechanical biological treatment (MBT)
Composting
Anaerobic digestion
Paper recycling
Landfill gas recovery for direct use
Flaring of landfill gas
Enhanced oxidation
Electricity generation w/ gas turbine
Electricity generation w/ CHP
Electricity generation w/microturbine
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Reductions achievable at cost less than $0/tC02e
Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tC02e
Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030
It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 12%, compared to the
baseline, in 2030. An additional 49% reduction is available using
technologies with increasingly higher costs.
Reduction Potential
Baseline: 959 MtC02e
Residual
Emissions
Technically Feasible
at Increasing Costs
Reductions at
No Cost
Several abatement measures are
available to control landfill methani
emissions, and they are commonly
grouped into three major categories:
(1) collection and flaring, (2) LFG
utilization systems (LFG capture fo
energy use), and (3) enhanced wast*
diversion practices (e.g., recycling a:
reuse programs). Although flaring i;
currently the most common abaterr
measure, LFG utilization options rr
be more cost-effective. Under favor;
market conditions, recycling and
reuse or composting alternatives ma
provide additional means for reduci
emissions from landfills.
Abatement Potential
Global abatement potential in the solid
waste landfill sector is estimated to I
approximately 589 MtCO2e of tota
annual emissions in 2030, or 61% c
the baseline emissions. The margina
that there are significant opportunit
for CH4 reductions in the landfill
sector at costs below $20 per tCO2e
emissions reduced. Furthermore,
approximately 70 to 80 MtCC^e of
reductions are cost-effective at curre
energy prices.
Energy H Waste
| Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Other Non-C02
Sources Not Modeled
United States Mexico China Russia Malaysia ROW
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Wastewater
CH4 Emissions from Municipal Wastewater Systems
,ey Points
Methane (CH4) emissions from wastewater treatment accounted for over 500
MtC02e in 2010 and are projected to grow 20% by 2030.
The estimated maximum abatement potential in 2030 is 218 MtC02e, or 36% of
projected emissions.
Abatement measures with costs less than $30 tCC^e can achieve a 15%
reduction in CH4 emissions in 2030.
Sector Description
Wastewater is the fifth largest emitter
of anthropogenic CH4, accounting
for more than 500 MtCO2e in 2010;
wastewater treatment is also a source of
N2O emissions. Domestic and industrial
wastewater treatment activities can lead
to venting and fugitive emissions of CH4,
which are produced when organic material
decomposes under anaerobic conditions
of wastewater in a facility. Most developed
countries use aerobic wastewater treatment
systems to minimize the amount of
CH4 generated, but many developing
countries rely on systems such as septic
tanks, latrines, open sewers, and lagoons,
which allow for greater levels of anaerobic
decomposition.
Emissions Reduction Potential
Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the
wastewater sector could be reduced by up to 218 MtCC^e in 2030. This
accounts for 5% of the 4,615 MtCC^e in global reduction potential in 2030.
Wastewater
218
Energy
Refrigeration &
Air Conditioning
Abatement Measures
Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices.
Latrine to aerobic Wwtp
Open sewer to aerobic Wwtp
Septic tank to aerobic Wwtp
Wastewater treatment plant with
anaerobic sludge digester with co-gen
0 20 40 60
100 120
Reductions achievable at cost less than $0/tC02e
Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tC02e
Waste
Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Projected Emissions in 2030
Global Non-CQ, Emissions
The Wastewater sector baseline emissions are
estimated to be 512 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030,
emissions from this source are projected to be 609
MtC02e or 5% of total non-C02 emissions.
Wastewater
5%
30
^
Emissions from Top 5 Emitting Countries (MtCO e)
Rest of World: 252 MtC02e
Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030
It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 1%, compared to the
baseline, in 2030. An additional 35% reduction is available using
technologies with increasingly higher costs.
Reduction Potential
58
1%
78
Baseline: 609 MtC02e
Residual |
Emissions
Technically Feasible
at Increasing Costs
Reductions at
No Cost
Abatement Measure:
CH4 emissions from wastewater cai
be significantly reduced through
improvements to infrastructure and
equipment. Abatement measures
available in the wastewater sector
include installing aerobic wastewatt
treatment plants on an individual
or centralized scale and installing
anaerobic wastewater treatment
plants with cogeneration. Factors
such as economic resources,
population density, government, an
technical capabilities are important
in determining the potential for
mitigating emissions from the
wastewater sector.
Abatement Potential
The global abatement potential of
CH4 from wastewater treatment is
138 MtCO2e in 2020 rising to 218
MtCO2e in 2030. This level of CH.
mitigation is considered to be the
technological maximum abatement
potential because high-cost abateiru
measures in the wastewater treatme:
sector significantly constrain the
abatement achievable at lower carbc
prices. Cost-effective emissions
reductions are limited to 3.4
MtCO2eless than 1% of business
usual (BAU) emissions in 2030.
Energy
Waste
| Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Other Non-C02
Sources Not Modeled
China Nigeria Mexico India United States ROW
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Nitric and Adipic Acid Production
N20 Emissions from Nitric and Adipic Acid Production
Key Points
The global abatement potential is 116 MtCt^e, or 79% of projected emissions i,
2030.
A 65% reduction in emissions is achievable at break-even prices below $20.
Abatement measure selection is driven by facility design constraints and/or
operating costs.
Sector Description
Nitric and adipic acid are commonly
used as feedstock in manufacturing
a variety of commercial products,
particularly fertilizer and synthetic
fibers. The process used to produce
nitric and adipic acid generates
significant quantities of nitrous
oxide (N2O) as a by-product. The
production of nitric and adipic acid is
expected to increase over time, driven
by continued growth in demand for
fertilizer and synthetic fibers.
Emissions Reduction Potential
Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the nitric and
adipic acid production sector could be reduced by up to 116 MtCC^e in 2030.
This accounts for 3% of the 4,615 MtCC^e in global reduction potential in 2030.
Nitric and
Adipic Acid
Production
116
Abatement Measures
Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices.
Tail-gas catalytic decomposition
Non-selective catalytic reduction
Catalytic decomposition in the burner
Homogeneous decomposition
in the burner
Thermal destruction
Refrigeration &
Air Conditioning
10
15
20
25
30
Reductions achievable at cost less than $0/tC02e
Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tCO e
Energy
Waste
Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Global Non-C02Emissions
Nitric and Adipic Acid Production baseline
emissions are estimated to be 118 MtC02e in 2010.
In 2030, emissions from this source are projected to
be 147 MtC02e or 1% of total non-C02 emissions.
Projected Emissions in 2030
Emissions from Top 5 Emitting Countries (MtC02e)
Rest of World: 209 MtC02e
Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030
It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 0%, compared to the
baseline, in 2030. An additional 79% reduction is available using
technologies with increasingly higher costs.
Reduction Potential
Nitric & Adipic
Acid
Production
1%
r
23
Baseline: 147 MtC02e
Residual
Emissions
Technically Feasible
at Increasing Costs
Reductions at
No Cost
Energy
Waste
| Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Other Non-C02
Sources Not Modeled
United States South Korea Brazil China Ukraine ROW
Abatement Measures
N2O emissions can be mitigated
through a number of alternative
abatement measures. In nitric acid
production, reduction technologies
are categorized by their location in
the production process. Secondary
reduction technologies, such as
homogeneous thermal decomposition
and catalytic decomposition, are
installed at an intermediate point
in the production process. Tertiary
reduction technologies, such as catalytic
decomposition and nonselective
catalytic reduction units, are applied
to the tail gas streams at the end of the
production process. The implementation
of one technology over another is driven
largely by facility design constraints
and/or cost considerations. Thermal
destruction is the single abatement
measure considered in this analysis.
Abatement Potential
The global abatement potential in
the nitric and adipic acid sector is
approximately 116 MtCC^e of total
annual emissions in 2030, or 79%
of projected baseline emissions. The
marginal abatement cost curve results
show that maximum reduction potential
is achievable at break-even prices below
$50/tCO2e. Over two-thirds of the
abatement potential is achievable at
break-even prices between $0 and $20.
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Refrigeration and Air Conditioning
HFC Emissions from Refrigeration and Air Conditioning Systems
Key Points
The global abatement potential from the options quantified is 994 MtCC^e, 62% of projected
emissions, in 2030.
30% of the baseline 2030 emissions can be abated from cost-effective mitigation measures
($OpertC02e).
This sector accounts for the single largest source of non-CO.2 abatement potential
accounting for over 20% of total abatement potential across all non-C02 emitting sectors ir
2030.
Sector Description
Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) used
in refrigeration and air conditioning
(AC) systems are emitted to the
atmosphere during equipment
operation, repair, and disposal, unless
recovered, recycled, and ultimately
destroyed. Equipment is being
retrofitted or replaced to use HFCs
that are substitutes for ozone-depleting
substances. Some of the most common
HFCs include HFC-134a, R-404A,
R-410A, R-407C, and R-507A.
Emissions Reduction Potential
Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the refrigeration
& air conditioning sector could be reduced by up to 994 MtCC^e in 2030. This
accounts for 22% of the 4,615 MtC02e in global reduction potential in 2030.
Refrigeration &
Air Conditioning
994
Energy
Refrigeration &
Air Conditioning
Waste
Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Global Non-C02Emissions
Refrigeration & Air Conditioning sector baseline
emissions are estimated to be 349 MtC02e in 2010.
In 2030, emissions from this source are projected
to be 1,596 MtC02e or 12% of total
non-CO, emissions.
Projected Emissions in 2030
Emissions from Top 5 Emitting Countries (MtC02e)
Rest of World: 527 MtC02e
Refrigeration &
Air Conditioning
12%
Abatement Measures
Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices.
Leak repair for existing large equipment
Refrigerant recovery at disposal for existing
refrigeration/AC equipment
HFC secondary loop in large retail food
R-410A to R-32 for unitary AC
Distributed systems in large retail food
Refrigerant recovery at servicing for existing
small equipment
C02transcritical system in large retail food
R-32 with MCHXin new unitary AC equipment
MicroChannel heat exchangers (MCHX)
in new equipment
HFO-1234yf in motor vehicle air-conditioners
Enhanced HFO-1234yf in motor vehicle
air-conditioners
NH3 secondary loop in large retail food
NH3 and C02 in cold storage and industrial
process refrigeration (IPR)
Other measures
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
I Reductions achievable at cost less than $0/tC02e
Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tC02e
Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030
It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 30%, compared to the
baseline, in 2030. An additional 32% reduction is available using
technologies with increasingly higher costs.
Reduction Potential
Baseline: 1,596MtC02e
Residual
Emissions
Technically Feasible
at Increasing Costs
Reductions at
No Cost
Abatement Measures
HFC abatement measures are
categorized into three categories: (1)
retrofit of existing systems to utilize
lower GWP refrigerants; (2) new cooling
systems to use lower GWP refrigerants
and/or reduce the charge size; and (3)
better refrigerant management practices
that reduce emissions during use,
servicing, and disposal. Such options are
analyzed for end-uses including retail
food refrigeration systems, window and
unitary AC equipment, motor vehicle
AC systems, and other types of cooling
systems.
Abatement Potential
The global abatement potential from
refrigeration and AC abatement is
calculated to be 994 MtCO2e in
2030, or 62% of baseline emissions;
additional uncalculated options are
explored qualitatively. The marginal
abatement cost curve results show that
479 MtCO2e, 30% of 2030 emissions,
can be reduced at a cost of $0 by
implementing "no-regret" options. At a
cost of $20 per tCO2e, an estimated 910
MtCO2e, or 57% of baseline emissions,
could be abated. All abatement options
quantified are achievable at mitigation
costs below $100/tCO2e.
Energy
Waste
| Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Other Non-C02
Sources Not Modeled
China United States South Korea Russia Japan ROW
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_., _ 30,
1 200
vents
HFC Emissions from Solvent Use
double, reaching 10 MtC02e.
The maximum abatement potential in the solvents sector from the options
analyzed is estimated to be 6 MtC02e, or 59% of the projected baseline in 2030.
5 MtC02e of emissions reductions in 2030 are cost-effective (i.e., $0/tC02e or
lower break-even prices).
Sector Description
HFC solvents are primarily used in
precision cleaning applications and
electronic cleaning applications.
Precision cleaning requires a high level
of cleanliness to ensure the satisfactory
performance of the product being
cleaned, and electronics cleaning is
defined as a process that removes
contaminants, primarily solder flux
residues, from electronics or circuit
boards. It is assumed that eventually
approximately 90% of the solvent
consumed in a given year will be
emitted, while 10% of solvent will
be disposed of with the sludge that
remains.
Emissions Reduction Potential
Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the solvents
sector could be reduced by up to 6 MtCC^e in 2030. This accounts for 0.12% of
the 4,615 MtC02e in global reduction potential in 2030.
Solvents
Refrigeration &
Air Conditioning
Abatement Measures
Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices.
Substitute HFE solvents for
HFC-4310mee
Retrofit Existing Equipment
Replace HFC cleaning system with NIK
Aqueous cleaning system
Replace HFC cleaning system with NIK
Semi aqueous cleaning system
I
I
I
1
2
Energy
Waste
Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Global Non-C02Emissions
Solvents sector baseline emissions are estimated to
be 5 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030, emissions from this
source are projected to be 10 MtC02e or
0.1% of total non-CO, emissions.
Projected Emissions in 2030
Emissions from Top 5 Emitting Countries (MtC02e)
Rest of World: 2.7 MtC02e
I Reductions achievable at cost less than $0/tC02e
Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tC02e
Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030
It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 50%, compared to the
baseline, in 2030. An additional 9% reduction is available using
technologies with increasingly higher costs.
Reduction Potential
Baseline: 2 MtC02e
Residual
Emissions
Technically Feasible
at Increasing Costs
Reductions at
No Cost
Abatement Measures
Four abatement options were
identified for the solvents sector:
(1) replacement of HFCs with HFEs,
(2) retrofitting of vapor degreaser
equipment to reduce emissions,
(3) transition to not-in-kind (NIK)
aqueous cleaning, and (4) transition
to NIK semi-aqueous cleaning.
These technologies have reduction
efficiencies of between 50% and
100%. Retrofitting equipment and
controls is limited to facilities that
have not already been retrofitted.
Transition to NIK aqueous and NIK
semi-aqueous applicability is limited
to some electronic cleaning processes.
Abatement Potential
The global abatement potential
in 2020 and 2030 is 3.0 and 5.7
MtCO2e, respectively. In 2030,
reduction of 4.8 MtCO2e , or 50%,
of total projected emissions, is
achievable at mitigation costs below
$0/tCO2e. Additional abatement
of approximately 1 MtCO2e is
achievable at mitigation costs greater
than $50/tCO2e.
Energy | Waste
| Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Other Non-C02
Sources Not Modeled
China United States Japan Russia South Korea ROW
-------
Foams
HFC Emissions from Foams Manufacturing, Use, and Disposal
Sector Description
Foam is used as insulation in a wide
range of equipment, structures, and
other common products. Foams
were historically produced with
ozone-depleting substances (ODS),
which have been phased out under
the Montreal Protocol in developed
countries and are being phased out in
developing countries. In some end-
uses, HFC blowing agents have largely
replaced ODS. HFC emissions from
the foams sector were approximately
22 MtCO2e in 2010 and are projected
to increase substantially to 52
MtCO2e and 92 MtCO2e by 2020
and 2030, respectively.
Emissions Reduction Potential
Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the foams
sector could be reduced by up to 37 MtCC^e in 2030. This accounts for 1% of
the 4,615 MtC02e in global reduction potential in 2030.
Foams
37
Refrigeration &
Air Conditioning
Energy
Waste
Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Global Non-C02 Emissions
Foams sector baseline emissions are estimated to
be 22 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030, emissions from
this source are projected to be 92 MtC02e or 1% of
total non-CO, emissions.
Projected Emissions in 2030
Emissions from Top 5 Emitting Countries (MtCO e)
Rest of World: 17 MtC02e
26
Energy | Waste
| Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Other Non-C02
Sources Not Modeled
United States Japan Germany France Italy ROW
Key Points
HFC emissions from foams are projected to quadruple over the next 20 years.
Abatement measures include replacing MFCs with low-GWP blowing agents and proper
recovery and disposal of foam present in existing systems at their end of life.
In 2030, the global abatement potential quantified is 27 MtC02e (29.4% of BAU emissions
from the foams sector) at cost-effective prices ($0 per tCOae). At higher prices, the
abatement options analyzed have the potential to abate up to 37 MtCO^e (40.3% of BAU
emissions) in 2030.
Abatement Measures
Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices.
Substitute HFC with HCCom
Substitute HFC with HC
Substitute LCD-Alcohol for HFC134aC02
Appliance EOL-manual recovery
Appliance end of life (EOL)-fully automated
One component HFC-134a switch to HC |
Substitute C02 for HFC245faC02 |
Continuous and Discontinuous: I
HFC134a switch to HC '
Substitute HC for HFC245faC02 '
One component HFC-152a wcitch to HC
0 2 4 6 8 10
I Reductions achievable at cost less than $0/tC02e
Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tC02e
Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030
It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 29%, compared to the
baseline, in 2030. An additional 11% reduction is available using
technologies with increasingly higher costs.
Reduction Potential
Baseline: 92 MtC02e
Residual
Emissions
Technically Feasible
at Increasing Costs
Reductions at
No Cost
Abatement Measures
Abatement options considered include
replacing HFCs with various low-GWP
blowing agents and properly recovering
and disposing of foam contained in
equipment and other products after
their useful life. More specifically, the
use of hydrocarbon or carbon dioxide
blowing agents instead of HFCs is
assessed quantitatively as an abatement
measure in the foams sector noting that
other low-GWP agents (e.g., HFO-
1234ze, -1233zd(E)) would achieve
similar abatement levels.
Abatement Potential
The total abatement potential in the
foams sector from the options explored
is 37 MtCO2e40% of total annual
foams sector emissions in 2030while
27 MtCO2e, or 30%, is achievable
at cost-effective carbon prices for the
same year. Total replacement of HFC
blowing agents in foams is limited in
the near term by the installed base of
foam products. All abatement options
analyzed replace blowing agents in
newly manufactured foams or destroy
the blowing agent only at the foam's
natural end of life.
-------
Aerosols
Key Points
HFC Emissions from Aerosol Product Use
Global baseline emissions in 2010 for aerosols were estimated at 45 MtCC^e and projected
to climb to 100 MtC02e and 146 MtC02e by 2020 and 2030, respectively.
Five abatement measures were considered for the aerosols sector, including transitioning
away from HFC use to lower GWP propellants and producing alternative non-aerosol
consumer products, such as a stick or roller.
Relatively low cost abatement measures (< $5/tC0.2e ) are projected to be capable of
mitigating 53% of the sector emissions in 2030.
Sector Description
Aerosol propellant formulations
containing HFCs are present in a
wide variety of consumer products-
such as hairsprays, deodorants, and
cleaning suppliesas well as technical
and medical aerosols. Baseline
HFC emissions from aerosols were
estimated at 45 MtCO2e in 2010
and are expected to increase to 146
MtCO2e by 2030. This rapid growth
is primarily driven by the increased
use of aerosols containing HFCs in
developing countries.
Emissions Reduction Potential
Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the aerosols
product use sector could be reduced by up to 97 MtCC^e in 2030. This accounts
for 2% of the 4,615 MtC02e in global reduction potential in 2030.
Aerosols
Product Use
97
Refrigeration &
Air Conditioning
Abatement Measures
Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices.
Substitute HC for HFC-134a
Substitute NIK for HFC-152a
Dry Powder Inhalers
Substitute NIK for HFC-134a
Substitute HFO-1234ze for HFC-134a
Substitute HC for HFC-152a
Substitute HFO-1234ze for HFC-152a
Substitute HFC-1523 to HFC-1343
Energy
Waste
Industrial
Processes
10
15
20
25
Agriculture
Global Non-C02 Emissions
Aerosols sector baseline emissions are estimated to
be 45 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030, emissions from this
source are projected to be 146 MtC02e or 1% of
Projected Emissions in 2030
Emissions from Top 5 Emitting Countries (MtC02e)
Rest of World: 49 MtC02e
Aerosols
Product Use
1%
Reductions achievable at cost less than $0/tC02e
Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tC02e
Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030
It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 48%, compared to the
baseline, in 2030. An additional 18% reduction is available using
technologies with increasingly higher costs.
Reduction Potential
Baseline: 92 MtC02e
Residual
Emissions
Technically Feasible
at Increasing Costs
Reductions at
No Cost
Abatement Measures
Abatement options available to reduce
emissions for consumer aerosol
products include transitioning to
replacement propellants with lower
GWPsHCs, HFO-1234ze, and
HFC-152a (where HFC-134a is
used)and converting to a not-in-
kind (NIK) alternative, such as sticks,
rollers, or finger/trigger pumps.
Abatement Potential
The global abatement potential from
aerosols containing HFCs is estimated
to be 96.7 MtCO2e66% of BAU
emissions from this sector and 5% of
total annual emissions from all sectors
that use ODS substitutes in 2030.
At $5 per tCO2e, the abatement
potential is estimated to be 53.4% of
baseline emissions, or 77.8 MtCO2e.
Furthermore, the abatement potential
at prices < $0 per tCC^e is forecasted
to be 70 MtCO2e (48.2% of BAU
emissions) for 2030.
Energy
| Waste | Industrial | Agriculture
Processes
Other Non-C02
Sources Not Modeled
China United States India Russia Mexico ROW
-------
Fire Protection
Key Points
HFC and RFC Emissions from Fire Protection Equipment
Sector Description
The fire protection sector emits HFCs
and PFCs when total flooding fire
suppression systems and portable
fire extinguishers are used. GHG
emissions from this sector were
estimated at 21 MtCO2e in 2010.
Under the baseline scenario, emissions
are projected to increase significantly
to 59 MtCO2e in 2030.
GHG emissions from fire protection equipment are projected to nearly triple between 2010 and
2030.
Total flooding fire suppression abatement options involve replacing hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)
and perfluorocarbons (PFCs) with lower-GWP alternatives, including both in-kind and not-in-kin
measures.
Any abatement potential in the fire protection equipment sector in 2030 is projected to cost $39
per tC02e or more. To reduce emissions by 4.6 MtC02e or more, costs of $50 per tC02e or more
are projected.
Emissions Reduction Potential
Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the fire
protection sector could be reduced by up to 6 MtCC^e in 2030. This accounts for
0.14% of the 4,615 MtC02e in global reduction potential in 2030.
Refrigeration &
Air Conditioning
Abatement Measures
Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices.
FK-5-1-12 in new Class A total
flooding applications
Inert gas systems
Water mist systems
I
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
Reductions achievable at cost less than $0/tC02e
Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tCO,e
Energy
Waste
Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Global Non-CQ2 Emissions
Fire Protection sector baseline emissions are
estimated to be 21 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030,
emissions from this source are projected to be 59
Projected Emissions in 2030
Emissions from Top 5 Emitting Countries (MtC02e)
Rest of World: 36 MtC02e
Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030
It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 0%, compared to the
baseline, in 2030. An additional 11% reduction is available using
technologies with increasingly higher costs.
Reduction Potential
Fire
Protection
0.4%
\ 0%
Baseline: 59 MtC02e
Residual
Emissions
Technically Feasible
at Increasing Costs
Reductions at
No Cost
Abatement Measures
The abatement options explored
replace HFCs and PFCs with zero-
or low-GWP extinguishing agents
to reduce CO2e emissions from the
fire protection sector's total flooding
equipment. The alternatives to HFCs
and PFCs in total flooding equipment
are both in-kind gaseous agents and
not-in-kind options. The in-kind
gaseous alternatives include CO2, inert
gases, and fluorinated ketones, and the
not-in-kind alternatives include varying
materials and systems such as dispersed
and condensed aerosol extinguishing
systems, water sprinklers, water mist,
foam, and inert gas generators.
Abatement Potential
From the options quantified, global
abatement potential of emissions
from total flooding fire suppression
applications is projected to be 6.4
MtCO2e, or nearly 11% of baseline
emissions, in 2030. There is little
abatement potential at break-even
prices below $50 per tCC^e in 2030,
which is projected to have the potential
to abate 4.6 MtCO2e from the fire
protection sector, or 8% of baseline
emissions.
Energy | Waste | Industrial 1 Agriculture Other Non-C02
Processes Sources Not Modeled
Australia China Japan Poland Mexico ROW
-------
Aluminum P
Key Points
RFC Emissions from Primary Aluminum Production
PFC emissions from aluminum production represent the third largest source of fluorinated
greenhouse gas (F-GHG) emissions in the industrial sector.
Primary abatement measures include installation of or upgrades to process computer
control systems and the installation of systems to allow more precise alumina feeding.
Abatement measures in this sector have the potential to reduce over half of the projected
baseline emissions.
Sector Description
The aluminum production industry
produces perfluorocarbon (PFC)
emissions during brief process upset
conditions in the aluminum smelting
process. Despite a decline in global
emissions of PFCs from primary
aluminum production between 2000
and 2010, baseline emissions are
projected to grow by 42%, from 26
MtCO2e in 2010 to 37 MtCO2e in
2030.
Emissions Reduction Potential
Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the aluminum
production sector could be reduced by up to 22 MtCC^e in 2030. This accounts
for 0.47% of the 4,615 MtC02e in global reduction potential in 2030.
Aluminum
Production
22
Refrigeration &
Air Conditioning
Abatement Measures
Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices.
Minor retrofit (process computer control
systems only)
Major retrofit (process computer control
systems + alumina point feeding)
5 10 15
Reductions achievable at cost less than $0/tC02e
Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tC02e
Abatement Measures
Abatement options in the primary
aluminum production sector are
primarily associated with installing or
upgrading process computer control
systems and alumina point-feed sys-
tem. The options considered involve
(1) a minor retrofit to upgrade the
process computer control systems
and (2) a major retrofit to the process
computer control systems coupled
with the installation of alumina
point-feed systems.
Primary
Aluminum
Production
0.3%
Energy
Waste
Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Global Non-C02 Emissions
Aluminum Production sector baseline emissions are
estimated to be 26 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030,
emissions from this source are projected to be 37
MtCO,e or 0.3% of total non-CO,emissions.
Projected Emissions in 2030
Energy
Waste
Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Emissions from Top 5 Emitting Countries (MtC02e)
Rest of World: 9 MtC02e
Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030
It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 7%, compared to the
baseline, in 2030. An additional 51% reduction is available using
technologies with increasingly higher costs.
Reduction Potential
Baseline: 37 MtC02e
Residual
Emissions
Technically Feasible
at Increasing Costs
Reductions at
No Cost
Other Non-C02
Sources Not Modeled
China United States Russia Canada Australia ROW
Abatement Potential
Global abatement potential in the
primary aluminum sector is projected
to be 21.6 MtCO2e, or nearly 58%
of baseline emissions in 2030. In
the absence of any policy incentive
to reduce PFC emissions, cost-
effective abatement of 2.5 MtCC^e
is available. Additional mitigation is
feasible with the adoption of more
costly mitigation measures. In 2030,
mitigation measures with costs less
than or equal to $30/tCO2e have
the potential to reduce emissions
by 17 MtCO2e, or 80% of the total
abatement potential.
-------
Key Points
HCFC-22 Production
Fluorinated Greenhouse Gas (F-GHG) Emissions from HCFC-22 Production
Global abatement potential in the HCFC-22 production sector is 228 MtCt^e and
255 MtC02e, in 2020 and 2030, respectively, which equates to a 90% reduction
from projected baseline emissions.
Thermal oxidation is the only abatement option considered for the HCFC-22
production sector.
The maximum abatement potential is achievable at costs below $1 per tCC-2.
Sector Description
Chlorodifluoromethane (HCFC-22)
is used in emissive applications (air
conditioning and refrigeration) as well
as in feedstock for synthetic polymer
production. The production of HCFC-22
generates HFC-23 as a by-product, which
is separated as a vapor from the condensed
HCFC-22; emissions occur through
HFC-23 venting to the atmosphere.
HFC-23 emissions were estimated at 128
MtCO2e and are projected to increase to
259 and 286 MtCO2e in 2020 and 2030,
respectively. Because HCFC-22 depletes
stratospheric ozone, its production is
being phased out under the Montreal
Protocol in areas apart from feedstock
production.
Emissions Reduction Potential
Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the HCFC-22
production sector could be reduced by up to 255 MtCC^e in 2030. This accounts
for 6% of the 4,615 MtC02e in global reduction potential in 2030.
HCFC-22
Production
255
Abatement Measures
Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices.
Thermal oxidation
0 50 100 150 200 250
I Reductions achievable at cost less than $0/tC02e
Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tC02e
Refrigeration &
Air Conditioning
Abatement Measures
Thermal oxidation is the only
abatement option considered in
this analysis for the HCFC-22
production sector. Thermal oxidation
is a demonstrated technology that
oxidizes HFC-23 to carbon dioxide
(CO2), hydrogen fluoride, and water
for the destruction of halogenated
organic compounds. This process is
assumed to be compatible with all
facilities.
Energy
Waste
Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Global Non-CO, Emissions
HCFC-22 Production sector baseline emissions are
estimated to be 128 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030,
emissions from this source are projected to be 286
MtCCXe or 2% of total non-CO, emissions.
Projected Emissions in 2030
Emissions from Top 5 Emitting Countries (MtC02e)
Rest of World: 19 MtC02e
Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030
It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 0%, compared to the
baseline, in 2030. An additional 89% reduction is available using
technologies with increasingly higher costs.
Reduction Potential
HCFC-22
Production
2%
29
Baseline: 286 MtC02e
Residual
Emissions
Technically Feasible
at Increasing Costs
Reductions at
No Cost
Abatement Potential
Global abatement potential of
HFC-23 in 2030 is 255 MtCO2e,
approximately 89% of projected
baseline emissions. The analysis
assumes that facilities in most
developed countries have already
adopted abatement measures. As a
result, abatement potential is limited
to developing countries. Maximum
abatement potential is achievable
at a cost of between $0 and $1 per
tCO2e.
Energy
Waste
| Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Other Non-C02
Sources Not Modeled
China India Mexico South Korea Venezuela ROW
-------
Key Points
Semiconductor Manufacturing
Fluorinated Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Semiconductor Manufacturing
Baseline emissions from semiconductor manufacturing are projected to
increase slowly from 18 MtC02e in 2010 to 22 MtC02e in 2030.
The global abatement potential ranges from 0.2 MtCG^e at today's forecasted
energy prices to the technological maximum potential of 4.2 MtC02e.
20% of the total abatement potential in this sector is achievable at costs at or
below $30/tC02e.
Sector Description
The semiconductor manufacturing
industry uses several fluorinated
greenhouse gases (F-GHGs), including
sulfur hexafluoride (SFg), nitrogen
trifluoride (NF3), and perfluorcarbons
during fabrication. Trace amounts of
these gases are incidentally released
into the atmosphere through normal
fabrication activities. In 2010,
18 MtCO2e of emissions were
produced from the semiconductor
manufacturing sector.
Emissions Reduction Potential
Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the semiconductor
manufacturing sector could be reduced by up to 4 MtCC^e in 2030. This accounts for
0.09% of the 4,615 MtC02e in global reduction potential in 2030.
Semiconductor
Manufacturing
4
Refrigeration &
Air Conditioning
Abatement Measures
Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices.
Thermal abatement
NF3 remote clean
Gas replacement I
Process optimization I
Catalytic abatement I
Plasma abatement I
0123
Reductions achievable at cost less than $0/tC02e
Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tCO e
Energy
Waste
Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Global Non-C02 Emissions
Semiconductor Manufacturing sector baseline
emissions are estimated to be 18 MtC02e in 2010.
In 2030, emissions from this source are projected to
be 22 MtCO,e or 0.2% of total non-CO, emissions.
Projected Emissions in 2030
Emissions from Top 5 Emitting Countries (MtC02e)
Rest of World: 4 MtC02e
Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030
It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 1%, compared to the
baseline, in 2030. An additional 19% reduction is available using
technologies with increasingly higher costs.
Reduction Potential
1%
3
/ Semiconductor
Manufacturing
0.2%
Baseline: 22 MtC02e
Residual
Emissions
Technically Feasible
at Increasing Costs
Reductions at
No Cost
Abatement Measures
Despite rapid growth between
2000 and 2010, the semiconductor
manufacturing industry experienced
a stark decline in F-GHG emissions,
decreasing from 28 MtCC^e in
2000 to 18 MtCO2e in 2010.
This decline can be attributed to
voluntary emissions reduction goals
set by the World Semiconductor
Council. Additionally, six abatement
technologies were considered to
further reduce emissions from this
sector: thermal abatement systems,
catalytic abatement systems,
plasma abatement systems, NF3
remote chamber clean process,
gas replacement, and process
optimization.
Abatement Potential
Global F-GHG abatement potential
in the semiconductor manufacturing
industry is estimated to be 4.6
MtCO2e and 4.2 MtCO2e in
2020 and 2030, respectively, which
correspond to 23% and 20% of
business as usual (BAU) emissions
from this sector. In 2030, the
abatement potential of 1 MtCC^e, or
4%, is achievable at abatement costs
below $30 per tCO2e.
Energy | Waste | Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Other Non-C02
Sources Not Modeled
China United States Japan Singapore South Korea ROW
-------
Electric Power Systems (EPS)
SF6 from Electric Power Systems
Key Points
The global abatement potential ranges from 7.5 MtCt^e to 42.8 MtCt^e in 2030.
Abatement measures include technologies and handling practices to manage SF
emissions and prevent leakage during servicing and disposal.
The abatement potential at cost-effective carbon prices ($5/tC02e) is projected
to reduce baseline emissions by 56% in 2030.
Sector Description
Electric power systems (EPSs)
use transmission and distribution
equipment that contains sulfur
hexafluoride (SFg), a potent GHG
with a global warming potential
23,900 times that of carbon
dioxide. Emissions occur through
unintentional leaking of equipment
and improper handling practices
during servicing and disposal. Global
baseline emissions from this sector
were estimated at 44 MtCO2e in
2010. Emissions are projected to
increase to 64 MtCO2e in 2030, a
45% increase.
Emissions Reduction Potential
Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the electric
power systems sector could be reduced by up to 43 MtCC^e in 2030. This
accounts for 1% of the 4,615 MtCC^e in global reduction potential in 2030.
Electric Power
Systems
43
Refrigeration &
Air Conditioning
Abatement Measures
Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices.
Improved SF6 handling
SF6 recycling
Leak detection and leak repair
Equipment refurbishment
0 5 10 15 20 25
H Reductions achievable at cost less than $0/tC02e
B Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tCO,e
Abatement Measures
Abatement measures that reduce
emissions in the EPS sector include
SFg recycling, leak detection
and repair (LDAR), equipment
refurbishment, and improved SFg
handling. These new technologies
and handling practices have largely
been adopted in Europe and
Japan. SFg recycling is commonly
practiced in the United States, but
there remains significant potential
for further reductions through
improved SFg handling and
upgraded or refurbished equipment.
Energy
Waste
Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Global Non-C02 Emissions
The Electric Power Systems sector baseline
emissions are estimated to be 44 MtC02e in 2010.
In 2030, emissions from this source are projected to
be 64 MtC02e or 0.5% of total non-C02 emissions.
Projected Emissions in 2030
Energy
Waste
Electric
Power Systems
0.5%
Emissions from Top 5 Emitting Countries (MtC02e)
Rest of World: 18 MtC02e
| Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Other Non-C02
Sources Not Modeled
China United States India Brazil South Korea ROW
Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030
It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 12%, compared to the
baseline, in 2030. An additional 55% reduction is available using
technologies with increasingly higher costs.
Reduction Potential
Baseline: 64 MtC02e
Residual
Emissions
Technically Feasible
at Increasing Costs
Reductions at
No Cost
Abatement Potential
Global abatement potential in this
sector is projected to be 34 MtCC^e
in 2020 and 43 MtCO2e in 2030,
which corresponds to approximately
two thirds of the business as
usual (BAU) baseline emissions,
respectively. Significant reductions
are available at relatively low cost.
For example, emission reduction
technologies that cost up to $5 per
tCO2e, can reduce emissions by 35
MtCC>2e, accounting for 84% of the
technologically feasible emissions
reductions in 2030.
-------
Magnesium Production
SF6 Emissions from Magnesium Production
Key Points
The global abatement potential of 98% is achieved through three abatement
measures that substitute SF6 with alternative gases.
From 2010 to 2030, SFg emissions are projected to stay in the range of 5 MtCO^e
Full abatement potential can be achieved at break-even prices of $5/tC02e or
less.
Sector Description
Magnesium production uses sulfur
hexafluoride (SFg) as a cover gas
during production and casting to
prevent spontaneous combustion
of molten magnesium in the
presence of air. The use of SFg can
result in fugitive emissions during
manufacturing processes. Advanced
initiatives in the magnesium industry
to phase out the use of SFg have
resulted in a 50% reduction in global
SFg emissions from 10 MtCO2e to
5 MtCO2e between 2000 and 2010.
Emissions Reduction Potential
Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the magnesium
production sector could be reduced by up to 5 MtCC^e in 2030. This accounts for
0.11% of the 4,615 MtC02e in global reduction potential in 2030.
Abatement Measures
Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices.
Alternate cover gas -
NovecTM612
Alternate cover gas -
HFC-134a
Oil & Natural
Gas Systems
Alternate cover gas - S02
Magnesium
Production
o.o
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Refrigeration &
Air Conditioning
Reductions achievable at cost less than $0/tC02e
Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tC02e
Energy
Waste
Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Global Non-C02 Emissions
The Magnesium Production sector baseline
emissions are estimated to be 5 MtC02e in 2010. In
2030, emissions from this source are projected to
Projected Emissions in 2030
Emissions from Top 5 Emitting Countries (MtC02e)
Rest of World: 0.08 MtC02e
Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030
It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 97%, compared to the
baseline, in 2030. An additional 1% reduction is available using
technologies with increasingly higher costs.
Reduction Potential
0.56
Magnesium
Production
0.04%
Baseline: 5 MtC02e
Residual
Emissions
Technically Feasible
at Increasing Costs
Reductions at
No Cost
Abatement Measures
Three abatement measures are
available for reducing SFg emissions
in production and processing, all
of which involve replacing SFg with
an alternative cover gas: SO2,
HFC-134a, or Novec 612. Although
toxicity, odor, and corrosive properties
are a concern of using SC>2 as a cover
gas, it can potentially eliminate SFg
emissions entirely through improved
containment and pollution control
systems. HFC-134a, along with
other fluorinated gas, contains fewer
associated health, odor, and corrosive
impacts than SO2, but it does have
global warming potential. Novec 612
is currently being used in a diecasting
facility, and the replacement of SFg
with Novec 612 is under evaluation.
Abatement Potential
The global abatement potential of SFg
emissions in the magnesium sector
is 5 MtCC>2e, approximately 98% of
projected emissions. The maximum
reduction potential for the suite of
reduction technologies is 98% of
projected emissions in 2030. These
reductions can be achieved at a cost of
less than $5/tCC>2e.
Energy
Waste
| Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Other Non-C02
Sources Not Modeled
China Russia Kazakhstan Israel Ukraine ROW
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Photovoltaic Cell Manufacturing
Fluorinated Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Photovoltaic Cell Manufacturing
Key Points
The global abatement potential in the photovoltaic (PV) manufacturing sector
ranges from less than 0.1 MtC02e to 1.7 MtC02e in 2030.
Reduction technologies include technologies that reduce fluorinated greenhousi
gas (F-GHG) emissions through etch and/or chamber cleaning processes.
The high costs of emissions reduction technologies combined with low emission:
reductions lead to abatement costs greater than $200/tC02e.
Sector Description
The PV cell manufacturing process
often uses multiple F-GHGs during
production, some of which are
released into the atmosphere.
Baseline emissions were estimated at
2.3 MtCO2e in 2010. A reduction in
baseline emissions is anticipated in
both 2020 and 2030, declining to an
estimated 2.1 MtCO2e and
1.9 MtCO2e, respectively.
Emissions Reduction Potential
Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the photovoltaic
cell manufacturing sector could be reduced by up to 2 MtCC^e in 2030. This
accounts for 0.04% of the 4,615 MtC02e in global reduction potential in 2030.
Photovoltaic
Cell
Manufacturing
2
Abatement Measures
Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices.
NF3 remote clean
Thermal abatement
Catalytic abatement
Plasma abatement
I
Refrigeration &
Air Conditioning
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2
I Reductions achievable at cost less than $0/tC02e
Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tC02e
Abatement Measures
Abatement measures considered
for reducing F-GHG emissions
from the PV manufacturing sector
include thermal abatement systems,
catalytic abatement systems, plasma
abatement systems, and the nitrogen
trifluoride (NF3) remote chamber
clean process. These technologies
have the potential to reduce
emissions from etch and/or chamber
clean processes by 90%.
Energy
Waste
Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Global Non-C02 Emissions
The Photovoltaic Cell Manufacturing sector baseline
emissions are estimated to be 2 MtC02e in 2010. In
2030, emissions from this source are projected to
Projected Emissions in 2030
Emissions from Top 5 Emitting Countries (MtC02e)
Rest of World: 0.29 MtC02e
Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030
It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 0%, compared to the
baseline, in 2030. An additional 90% reduction is available using
technologies with increasingly higher costs.
Reduction Potential
0.09
0.19
Photovoltaic
Cell Manufacturing
0.01%
Baseline: 2 MtC02e
Residual
Emissions
Technically Feasible
at Increasing Costs
Reductions at
No Cost
Energy
Waste
| Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Other Non-C02
Sources Not Modeled
China Japan Germany Malaysia South Korea ROW
Abatement Potential
The global abatement potential
in the PV manufacturing sector
is estimated to be 1.9 MtCO2e in
2020 and 1.7 MtCO2e in 2030, or
90% of baseline emissions in each
year. High capital costs and low
emissions reductions associated with
the available abatement measures
result in abatement costs greater
than $200/tCO2e. No statistically
significant emissions reductions
are available at abatement costs
below $200.
-------
Flat Panel Display Manufacturing
Fluorinated Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Flat Panel Display Manufacturing
Key Points
The global abatement potential of flat panel display (FPD) manufacturing
processes is 10 MtC02e in 2030,80% of baseline emissions.
Six abatement options were analyzed to reduce emissions from etch and/or
clean processes.
No abatement potential is achievable at carbon prices below $25/tC02e.
Sector Description
FPD manufacturing processes
produce fluorinated greenhouse
gas (F-GHG) emissions, including
sulfur hexafluoride (SFg), nitrogen
trifluoride (NF3), and carbon
tetrafluoride (CF^). Global
baseline emissions from the FPD
manufacturing sector in 2010 were
estimated at 7 MtCO2e. Baseline
emissions for 2020 are projected
to increase to approximately 12
MtCO2e and remain at 12 MtCO2e
through 2030.
Emissions Reduction Potential
Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the flat panel
display manufacturing sector could be reduced by up to 10 MtCC^e in 2030. This
accounts for 0.21% of the 4,615 MtC02e in global reduction potential in 2030.
Flat Panel
Display
Manufacturing
10
Refrigeration &
Air Conditioning
Abatement Measures
Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices.
Thermal abatement
NF3 remote clean
Catalytic abatement
Central abatement system I
Plasma abatement |
Gas replacement I
012345
I Reductions achievable at cost less than $0/tC02e
Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tCO e
Energy
Waste
Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Global Non-C02 Emissions
The Flat Panel Display Manufacturing sector
baseline emissions are estimated to be 7 MtC02e in
2010. In 2030, emissions from this source are
projected to be 12 MtC02e or 0.1% of total
non-CO, emissions.
Projected Emissions in 2030
Emissions from Top 5 Emitting Countries (MtC02e)
Rest of World: 0.0 MtC02e
Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030
It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 0%, compared to the
baseline, in 2030. An additional 80% reduction is available using
technologies with increasingly higher costs.
Reduction Potential
0.1
Flat Panel
Display
Manufacturing
0.1%
Baseline: 2 MtC02e
Residual
Emissions
Technically Feasible
at Increasing Costs
Reductions at
No Cost
Abatement Measures
Six abatement options were
considered for the FPD
manufacturing sector: central
abatement, thermal abatement,
catalytic abatement, plasma
abatement, NF3 remote chamber
clean, and gas replacement. These
systems are applicable to reducing
emissions from etch and/or clean
processes. Thermal abatement systems
represent the largest abatement
potential, accounting for 40% of
emissions reductions in the FPD
manufacturing sector.
Abatement Potential
Global abatement of F-GHGs in
the FPD manufacturing sector is
estimated to be 9 MtCO2e in 2020
and 10 MtCO2e in 2030, which
equates to 80% abatement from
projected baseline emissions. At a
break-even price of $30, just over
2 MtCO2e in emissions reductions
is achievable in 2030. No emissions
reductions are possible at prices
below $25.
Energy
Waste
| Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Other Non-C02
Sources Not Modeled
China South Korea Japan Singapore ROW
-------
ivestoc
Key Points
Emissions from Livestock Operations
The livestock sector accounts for 21% of baseline non-Ct^ emissions in 2030.
The largest low-cost reductions in emissions resulted from implementation of
strategies to improve feed conversion efficiency, incorporate feed supplements,
and increase the use of small-scale anaerobic digesters.
The technologically feasible abatement potential of the livestock sector is 267
MtC02e in 2030,10% of baseline emissions.
Sector Description
Livestock operations generate
methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide
(N2O) emissions. The greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions mainly come from
two sources: enteric fermentation
and manure management. Methane
is produced as a by-product of the
digestive process in animals through
a microbial fermentation process.
Manure N2O emissions result from
nitrification and denitrification
of the nitrogen that is excreted in
manure and urine. Global baseline
emissions from the livestock sector
were estimated to grow from 2,202 to
2,729 MtCO2e from 2010 to 2030.
Emissions Reduction Potential
Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the livestock
sector could be reduced by up to 269 MtCC^e in 2030. This accounts for 6% of
the 4,615 MtC02e in global reduction potential in 2030.
Livestock
Oil & Natu
Gas Systems
Livestock
269
Refrigeration &
Air Conditioning
Abatement Measures
Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices.
Antimethanogen
Propionate precursors
Improved feed conversion
Large-scale complete mix digester i
with engine '
Large-scale covered lagoon with engine |
Large-scale complete mix digester
without engine
Large-scale covered lagoon without engine |
Intensive grazing
Antibiotics |
Large-scale fixed-film digester with engine |
Large-scale fixed-film digester i
without engine >
Other measures
Energy
Waste
Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Global Non-C02 Emissions
The Livestock sector baseline emissions are
estimated to be 2,286 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030,
emissions from this source are projected to be
2,729 MtC02eor21%of total non-C02 emissions.
Projected Emissions in 2030
Emissions from Top 5 Emitting Countries (MtCO e)
Rest of World: 1,553 MtC02e
186
Livestock
21%
4t
246
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Reductions achievable at cost less than $0/tC02e
Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tC02e
Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030
It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 3%, compared to the
baseline, in 2030. An additional 7% reduction is available using
technologies with increasingly higher costs.
Reduction Potential
3%
Baseline: 2,729 MtCO,e
Residual
Emissions
Technically Feasible
at Increasing Costs
Reductions at
No Cost
Abatement Measures
The report considered six enteric
fermentation (CH4) abatement
measures: improved feed conversion
efficiency, antibiotics, bovine soma-
trotropin (bST), propionate precur-
sors, antimethanogen vaccines, and
intensive pasture management. It also
included two manure management
(N2O) abatement measures: small and
large digesters (complete-mix, plug-
flow, fixed film) and covered lagoons.
The largest reductions resulted from
implementation of antimethanogen
vaccines, propionate precursors, and
small digesters.
Abatement Potential
Technologically feasible global
abatement potential for the livestock
sector was estimated at 267 MtCC^e
in 2030, a 10% reduction compared
to the baseline. In 2030, a reduction
of 58 MtCC>2e is cost-effective under
current projections and 162 MtCO2e
would be possible at an abatement
costof$30/tCO2e.
Energy
Waste Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Other Non-C02
Sources Not Modeled
India China Brazil United States Pakistan ROW
-------
Methane (CH4) and Nitrous Oxide (N20) Emissions from Rice Cultivation
Key Points
The rice cultivation sector accounts for 6% of baseline non-C02 emissions in
2030.
Among five abatement measures evaluated, switching to dryland production
provides the largest emissions reductions.
The technologically feasible reduction potential of the rice cultivation sector is
200 MtC02e in 2030,26% of baseline sector emissions.
Sector Description
Rice cultivation is a source of methane
(CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O)
emissions, and changes in soil organic
carbon (C) stocks. When paddy fields
are flooded, decomposition of organic
material depletes the oxygen in the
soil and floodwater, causing anaerobic
conditions. Human activities influence
soil N2O emissions (use of fertilizers
and other crop management practices)
and soil C stocks (residue and crop
yield management). Global baseline
emissions from the rice cultivation
sector were estimated to grow from
565 to 756 MtCO2e from 2010 to
2030.
Emissions Reduction Potential
Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the rice sector
could be reduced by up to 200 MtC02e in 2030. This accounts for 4% of the
4,615 MtC02e in global reduction potential in 2030.
Refrigeration &
Air Conditioning
Energy I Waste I lndustrial I Agriculture
1 Processes
Global Non-C02 Emissions
The Rice Cultivation sector baseline emissions are
estimated to be 565 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030,
emissions from this source are projected to be
Projected Emissions in 2030
Emissions from Top 5 Emitting Countries (MtCO e)
Rest of World: 176 MtC02e
Abatement Measures
Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices.
Mid-season drainage with 50% residue incorporation
and 30% reduced fertilizer usage
Switch CF to dry land with 50% residue incorporation
Switch CF to Mid-season drainage with 100%
residue incorporation
Switch CF to Mid-season dra inage with 50% residue
and 30% reduced fertilizer usage
Switch CF to dry land with 50% residue and 20%
reduced fertilizer usage
Switch from RF to base with 50% residue
incorporation and auto-fertilization
Switch Rain-fed to CF with 50% residue
incorporation and use of nitrogen inhibitors
Switch from CF to Mid-season drainage use of slow
release fertilizer
Switch Rain-fed to CF with 50% residue
incorporation and no tillage
Switch from CFto Mid-season drainage with 50%
residue and dry-seeding
Switch Mid-season drainage to AWD with 50%
residue incorporation and use of nitrogen inhibitors
Switch from CFto Mid-season drainage with
no till practices
Abatement Measures
Five types of abatement measures
were considered: paddy flooding
(continuous, mid-season,
alternating, dry), crop residue
incorporation (50% and 100%),
tillage (conventional and no-
till), fertilization application
(conventional, ammonium sulfate,
nitrification inhibitor, slow-release,
reduced use, auto fertilization),
and direct seeding. Switching to
dry-land production provides the
largest emissions reductions, though
it results in major reductions in rice
yield.
Other measures
I 16.20
86.91
12
Reductions achievable at cost less than $0/tC02e
Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tCO e
Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030
It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 8%, compared to the
baseline, in 2030. An additional 18% reduction is available using
technologies with increasingly higher costs.
Reduction Potential
18% 8%
Baseline: 756 MtC02e
Residual
Emissions
Technically Feasible
at Increasing Costs
Reductions at
No Cost
Abatement Potential
Technologically feasible global
abatement potential for the rice
cultivation sector was estimated
at 203 MtCO2e in 2020 and
200 MtCO2e in 2030, 28% and
26% reductions compared to the
baseline. In 2030, a reduction of
58 MtCC>2e at an abatement cost of
$0/tCO2e and 135 MtCO2e would
be possible at a cost of $30/tCO2e.
Energy
Waste
| Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Other Non-C02
Sources Not Modeled
India Bangladesh Indonesia China Vietnam ROW
-------
Key Points
Non-rice Croplands
The global emission reduction potential of the croplands sector is 56 MtCf^e in
2030,12% of baseline emissions.
Seven abatement options were analyzed to reduce soil management emissions.
Over 80% of reductions result from the implementation of no-till cultivation and
reduced fertilizer applications.
Sector Description
Land management in croplands influences
soil nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions
(influenced by fertilization practices, soil
drainage, and nitrogen mineralization),
methane (CH4) fluxes, and soil organic
carbon (C) stocks (and associated carbon
dioxide [CC^] fluxes to the atmosphere).
The report considers only major crops
(barley, maize, sorghum, soybeans, and
wheat) and minor crops closely related
to these (rye, lentils, other beans, and
oats). Global baseline emissions from the
croplands sector in 2010 were estimated
at 474 MtCC>2e. Projected emissions
are relatively constant, decreasing to
approximately 460 MtCO2e in 2020 and
rebounding to 472 MtCO2e by 2030.
Emissions Reduction Potential
Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the cropland
sector could be reduced by up to 56 MtC02e in 2030. This accounts for 1% of
the 4,615 MtC02e in global reduction potential in 2030.
Global Non-C02 Emissions
The Croplands sector baseline emissions are
estimated to be 474 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030,
emissions from this source are projected to be 472
Croplands
Refrigeration &
Air Conditioning
Abatement Measures
Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices.
No tillage
20% reduced fertilizer use
Use nitrogen inhibitors
Split fertilizer
100% residue incorporation
I
Croplands
56
Energy
20% increase in fertilizer use
Waste
Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Projected Emissions in 2030
Emissions from Top 5 Emitting Countries (MtCO e)
Rest of World: 168 MtC02e
0 5 10 15 20 25
Reductions achievable at cost less than $0/tC02e
Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tC02e
Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030
It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 5.4%, compared to the
baseline, in 2030. An additional 6.4% reduction is available using
technologies with increasingly higher costs.
Reduction Potential
"
5.4%
Baseline: 472 MtC02e
Residual
Emissions
Technically Feasible
at Increasing Costs
Reductions at
No Cost
Abatement Measures
Six abatement measures were considered
for the croplands sector: adoption of
no-till cultivation, reduced fertilizer
application, increased fertilizer
application, split nitrogen fertilization,
application of nitrification inhibitors,
and crop residue incorporation. Before
2020, the majority of reductions
result from the implementation of
no-till cultivation (70% in 2010, 60%
in 2020). In 2030, the majority of
reductions (96%) are shared between
no-till, reduced fertilization, and
nitrification inhibitors.
Energy
Waste Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Other Non-C02
Sources Not Modeled
China United States India Brazil Argentina ROW
Abatement Potential
Technologically feasible global
abatement potential in the croplands
sector is estimated to be 70 MtCC^e
in 2020 and 56 MtCO2e in 2030,
representing 15% and 12% reductions
compared to the baseline. In 2030,
abatement measures that break even
(i.e., < $0/tCO2e) can reduce nearly
30 MtCC>2e. Additional reductions
are achievable with the inclusion of
more costly abatement measures.
For example, the level of reduced
emissions increases to 37 MtCC^e by
including abatement measures with
implementation costs less than or equal
to $30/tCO2e.
-------
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