United States
   Environmental Protection
   Agency
science tar a changing world

   k British
   =' Geological Survey
                                  EPA/600/R/12/728 | January 2013 | www.epa.gov/researc
                                                        BGS OR/12/087
                    International Summit on
                    Integrated Environmental Modeling
                    December 7-9, 2010
                    USGS Headquarters, Reston, VA
                                            / -^
   Office of Research and Development
   Ecosystems Research Division, Athens Georgia

-------
International Summit on Integrated

Environmental  Modeling
December 7-9, 2010
USGS Headquarters, Reston, VA
                                   Integrated Environmental
                                       Modeling Summit
                               &~\ Centre for
                               (. j Ecology & Hydrology

                                     ~
                a           USDA
                OpenM  OGC   IS
                                      V Durham
                                       University
                                       HRWallingford
                                      /< KISTERS

                                                     ONR
                                                  CSDMS
Workshop Report
Editors:

Roger Moore
OpenMI Association
Contributors:

Noha Gaber
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Pierre Glynn
U.S. Geological Survey

Alexey Voinov
International Environmental Modelling
    and Software Society
Andrew Hughes
British Geological Survey
Gary Geller
National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Gerry Laniak
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Gene Whelan
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

-------
Disclaimer:
The views expressed in these proceedings are those of the individual authors and may not necessarily
reflect the views and policies of the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA). Scientists
in USEPA have prepared the USEPA sections, and those sections have been reviewed in accordance
with USEPA's peer and administrative review policies and approved for presentation and publication. Any
use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by
the U.S. Government. This document is published with the permission of the Director of British Geological
Survey (BGS) Natural Environment Research Council (NERC).

-------
1   Introduction	1
  1.1     Background	1
  1.2     What is Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM)?	3
  1.3     Workshop outline	4
2   Day One- Laying the groundwork for roadmap development	5
  2.1     Drivers for IEM	5
  2.2     The State-of-the-art	7
  2.3     A vision for IEM	11
  2.4     Challenges ahead	13
  2.5     Results of breakout groups for Day One	16
3   Day Two- Developing the IEM Roadmap	18
  3.1     Science vision, goals and activities	18
  3.2     Technology vision, goals and activities	21
  3.3     Application vision, goals and activities	23
  3.4     Organization/Community vision, goals and activities	26
4   Day Three - summary of roadmaps and development and implementation plans	29
  4.1     Projects	29
  4.2     Community governance	29
5   Summary and the way forward	31
6   References	32
7   Glossary	34
8   Appendices	36
Appendix 1: Original proposal to the FCO	37
Appendix 2: Agenda and running order	41
Appendix 3: Workshop participants	48
Appendix 4: Potential collaborative projects	51

-------
Acknowledgements

The organizing committee would like to thank the following organizations for their support of the Summit:

   .   The UK Foreign  and Commonwealth Office (FCO) for contributing to the funding and assisting
       with the logistics
   .   British Geological Survey (BGS) for co-convening the meeting for contributing to its funding. This
       document is published with the permission of the Director of the British Geological Survey (BGS)
       Natural Environment Research Council (NERC).
   .   United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) for co-convening  the meeting.  The
       views  expressed in these proceedings  are  those of  the  individual  authors and  may  not
       necessarily reflect the views and policies of the USEPA. Scientists in USEPA have prepared the
       USEPA sections, and those sections have been reviewed in accordance with  USEPA's peer and
       administrative review policies and approved for presentation and publication.
   .   U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) for providing the venue
   .   The OpenMI Association for initiating the meeting and for funding
   .   The Community for Integrated Environmental Modeling for making iemHUB available as an outlet
       for the meeting's  results
   .   All the organizations and individuals who participated and made it such a success.
   .   The reviewers of this document: Andrew Barkwith, BGS; Brad Keelor, FCO;  Bob Kennedy, US
       Army Corps of Engineers.

-------
Executive Summary
This report describes the International Summit on Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM), held in
Reston, VA, on 7th-9th December 2010. The meeting brought together 57 scientists and managers from
leading US and European government and non-governmental organizations, universities and companies
together with  international organizations.  The  Summit built  on previous meetings which have been
convened  over  a number  of  years, including:  the  US  Environmental Protection Agency  (USEPA)
workshop  on Collaborative Approaches to Integrated Modeling: Better  Integration for  Better  Decision-
Making (December, 2008); the AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco (December 2009); and the International
Congress  on Environmental  Modeling and  Software (July 2010).   From these  meetings there is now
recognition that many separate  communities are  involved in developing IEM. The aim of the Summit was
to bring together two key groupings, the US and  Europe, with the intention of creating a  community open
to all.

The workshop reviewed  the current state-of-the-art and  concluded that there are a  large number of
activities and means to provide the technology for integrated modeling:  USEPA's FRAMES, EU-funded
OpenMI, Common Component  Architecture (CCA) for CSDMS and Object Modeling System (QMS) by
the US Department of Agriculture.

Summit participants discussed  what is needed  to advance the science, technology and application of
integrated  environmental modeling worldwide.  The vision statement developed and higher-level goals for
each of these topics are summarized in Table 1  below.  The common themes that emerged  from
discussions included  the following  needs:  to  provide accessible  linkable  components,  to  address
uncertainty in linked model systems, to professionalize the  development of integrated models, to engage
properly with stakeholders and  develop a Community of Practice to aid the development and  uptake of
IEM.

Many fruitful opportunities for collaboration leading to projects were identified. The need  for a "showcase"
project to  demonstrate beyond doubt the utility of IEM in solving problems  for decision-makers was
recognized. There was also  the realization that  a number  of short-term projects, so-called "low-hanging
fruit," are required.  These would aid promotion  of IEM by  practitioners and include gathering examples
where  IEM has  helped  to  make  better  decisions.   To encourage collaboration,  16  longer-term
collaborative projects were  identified, including  developing a Community  of  Practice  for IEM (CIEM).
Given the  positive energy and atmosphere of the meeting, it was agreed to produce a  roadmap setting
out how to achieve the IEM vision.

-------
Table 1 Visions and goals for an IEM Roadmap
Topic
Vision
Goals
Science
Science supporting IEM  and its application
will  continue   evolving  to  inform   policy
decisions  and  communicate environmental
problems and  solutions to  society. IEM will
use state-of-the-art predictive capabilities for
multi-scale,  multiple  interacting  processes
that  represent  environmental  responses to
perturbations  in  natural   or   engineered
settings. Uncertainty analysis will be used to
evaluate the limitations of IEM critically.
a.   Establishing a  scientifically sound methodology for  approaching problems which  require
    integrated modeling to find a solution

b.   Establishing scientifically  respected, controlled vocabularies, ontologies  and catalogues of
    processes, process variables, models and exchange items to reduce the opportunity for error
    and automate construction of the model chain

c.   Understanding and developing the means to handle the scientific issues that arise when  models
    based on different scales are linked

d.   Understanding and developing the means to handle the scientific issues that arise when  models
    which run at different temporal or spatial resolutions are linked

e.   Understanding and developing the means to reduce the instabilities that arise when models are
    linked

f.   Developing methods for assessing, quantifying and displaying the uncertainties arising from the
    use of integrated modeling

g.   Developing an approach to model development and a mindset among developers that assumes
    at a point in a model's life cycle, it will need to be linked  to other models
Technology
IEM  technology  will  make  it easier to find,
use,   develop,  integrate,  understand,  and
future-proof models and data.
a.   Raising the level of interoperability and portability of modeling components

b.   Automating IM processes that are irrelevant to the IM user

c.   Improving the accessibility of tools by lowering the barriers to entry

d.   Creating a web service market supported by e-infrastructure

e.   Creating  the  ability to assess uncertainty and pass  it down the model chain  to deliver the
    science work listed above

f.   Establishing an IEM culture based upon best practices
Application
IEM   will  support  robust  and  defensible
decision-making that provides for a range of
users  and  that  produces  results  in  an
appropriate form, using readily available data
and models.
a.   Providing modeling platforms that make data, models and tools readily available

b.   Establishing show-case projects that demonstrate the added value of integrated modeling

c.   Describing uncertainty associated with results

d.   Developing systems to manage and maintain an audit trail of integrated model runs

e.   Engaging stakeholders
                                                                                   IV

-------
Organization/Community
IEM  community  will  be  open  (sharing),
efficient,  transparent and  collaborative  to
advance   science  and   technologies  for
making effective environmental decisions, for
issues  requiring trans-disciplinary approach,
and for societal benefits.
a.   Establish an inclusive IEM Community of Practice (CoP) that:  (1)  Recognizes realistic goals;
    (2) Exists as the communication platform; (3) Attracts funding;  and (4) Operates under clearly
    defined contributions from each member/ member organization

b.   Create an e-infrastructure that: (1) Provides a single catalogue of components (models, data,
    tools); (2) Supports access to HPC & cloud computing; (3) Broadcasts funding opportunities for
    IEM; and (4) Provides links to IEM practitioners and experts

c.   Create a comprehensive IEM Education Plan encompassing technical workforce, users and the
    public.

d.   Reach common, agreed-upon standards of model linking and data sharing.

e.   Assure that funding for CoP operations and projects in IEM is readily available and coordinated
    across organizations

-------
1   Introduction

1.1   Background

It has become clear that there are "islands of excellence" emerging all around the world related to
integrated environmental  modeling  (IEM).  For example, in  Europe, the OpenMI Association is
championing the use of the OpenMI standard for linking models at run-time. In the US, FRAMES
is being developed by the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), Common Component
Architecture (CCA) by the Community Surface Dynamics Modeling System (CSDMS), and Object
Modeling System (QMS)  by the US Department for Agriculture (USDA). The complete list is too
long  to enumerate here;  however, the shared objective of all these  initiatives is to enable us to
better  understand  and  predict  the  wider implications  of environmental  events and  their
management. In practical terms, it is about  modeling how processes will interact. Such an ability
is essential to  understanding and encapsulating how the earth  system works, and to finding
sustainable solutions to the many challenges,  large and small, facing the world. If IEM can  be
made into a practical tool, a vast array of products and services should result.

While the potential of integrated modeling has been apparent for some time, we have lacked the
technology, standards, and organization to  realize that potential.  As Voinov et al. (2010) pointed
out, "there are significant scientific and technical challenges associated with constructing complex
Earth systems models.  Overcoming these difficulties will  require a  collaborative  modeling
approach based on the fundamental principles of open scientific research, including the sharing
of ideas, data, and software." Furthermore,  it  is  recognized  that the work of transforming
integrated modeling from its  present state, essentially a  research  tool, to  something  that,
ultimately, anyone can  use will require international efforts. The challenges are considerable and
so are the resources required.  Formal and informal meetings have been occurring for some time
with the goals of promoting IEM and accelerating its development:

   •   In December 2008, the USEPA organized a workshop on  "Collaborative Approaches to
       Integrated Modeling: Better Integration for Better Decision-Making", to establish and
        initiate  a  community of practice  for integrated modeling science and technology. As a
        result of this workshop and further  discussions with several  science-based communities
       who  conduct integrated environmental  modeling, the  unanimous conclusion that a web-
       facilitated community of practice would be of great value  to environmental modelers was
        reached.  The USEPA then worked with US and international collaborators to initiate the
       Community of Practice for Integrated Environmental Modeling (CIEM).

-------
    •   At the AGU 2009 Fall meeting, the OpenMI Association suggested that IEM had reached
       a  stage for its potential  to be  demonstrated.  A roadmap was  therefore required to
       demonstrate to potential users, developers and  funding agencies  that the potential was
       achievable and would repay any investment required.  The investment would not only
       show returns  in  better  and  more  sustainable  decisions  and  fewer  unanticipated
       outcomes, but  it could ultimately lead to a new wealth-generating industry.
    •   At the International Congress on Environmental Modeling and Software in July 2010, the
       USEPA launched the Community of Practice for Integrated Environmental  Modeling, as
       well  as its online portal, the  iemHUB.  A workshop on the "Future of  Science  and
       Technology  of Integrated  Modeling" was also  organized  to  provide  participants
       opportunities to discuss advancing the science and technology of integrated modeling for
       environmental  assessment and decision-making. The workshop also sought to identify
       software and  computational  technology  trends  and  how  these  might  impact  the
       development of integrated modeling.  It was  expected that these  discussions would
       inform a technology roadmap for IEM.
Initially, the meeting was conceived as a workshop for a small, self-selected group of US and EU
integrated modelers (see  Appendix 1).  Funding was obtained from  the  UK  Foreign  and
Commonwealth Office's  Science  and  Innovation  Network,  which  supports  transatlantic
cooperation. However, the meeting rapidly became a much bigger event to be attended by senior
representatives  of major government  agencies,  commercial companies  and universities and,
consequently, attracted additional funding in cash and in-kind from the British Geological Survey
(BGS), the US Geological Survey (USGS), the USEPA, the OpenMI Association, the Community
of Practice  on Integrated  Environmental  Modeling  (CIEM)  and the  Interagency  Steering
Committee on Multimedia  Environmental Modeling  (ISCMEM). The result was  a meeting of
astonishing energy, with outputs far exceeding expectations of conveners.

As a result of the workshop, this report is one of five documents  to be produced to aid promotion
of IEM and help secure funding (for more information see http://iemhub.orq/qroups/iscmem  and
http://iemhub.org/tags/iemsummit1'):

    1.  A factual report on the workshop (this document).
    2.  A paper for a  special edition of the Environmental  Modelling and Software journal  that
       summarizes thinking behind the steps required to achieve the IEM vision.
1 Note whilst iemHUB is open to all, potential users need to register and obtain a username and password
to gain access to the documents and other resources held there.

-------
    3.  A roadmap detailing steps required to achieve this vision.
    4.  A Nature paper on IEM principles.
    5.  Supporting material to communicate the vision and roadmap to a range of stakeholders.
The workshop report itself summarizes both the workshop and its outcomes.  It describes what
was undertaken which includes:   establishing a  vision, identifying goals  and projects, and
summarizing a path forward.  More detailed descriptions of workshop outputs are provided  as
links to the  iemHUB. Whilst it was  supported  by both  European  and US  organizations, for
consistency with outputs from the workshop, American English is preferred throughout this report
unless a direct quote, organizational name or reference is used.

1.2  What is  Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM)?

At its  most basic level, integrated modeling (IM) is  about linking computer models that simulate
different processes to help understand and predict how those processes will interact in particular
situations. Integrated environmental modeling (IEM) applies integrated modeling to the analysis
of environmental problems. Its main application lies in impact analysis - especially looking at the
wider consequences of events and policies. Another application, for example, is optimizing the
conjunctive use of different resources. IEM  is not limited to analyzing interactions between natural
processes; it frequently involves  predicting how various events or policies to manage the natural
world  could impact society or the economy.

Importantly,  IM focuses  on  linking models, databases,  and institutional structures to support
decision making; it is not focused on the  models themselves or on  the science that individual
models represent.

IM  and IEM  issues  include: the  design  of  the  integrated  analytical framework; modeling
component  connectivity   mechanisms and standards,  i.e.,  improving  interoperability;  wide
accessibility  of integrated modeling by improving ease  of use  and reliability; enhancements  to
make IEM an  acceptable tool for regulators by automatically creating audit trails and  ensuring
repeatability;  reduction of unanticipated outcomes through links between  IEM and artificial
intelligence; integrated model evaluation; passing uncertainty down the model chain; developing
decision-support interfaces;  information architecture; web-based access;  community building;
and education and research.

-------
The workshop was held over three days at the USGS HQ at Reston, VA and its agenda can be
found in Appendix 2.  Matt Larsen, Associate Director - Climate and Land Use Change,  USGS
gave the opening address.   Day One focused  on developing  a common understanding  of the
background    and drivers for IEM,  the  state-of-the-art and  current  practice,  formulating  a
consensus vision  for the future of integrated environmental  modeling, and articulating the major
challenges to achieving that vision.  The challenges were grouped into four topic areas: science,
technology, applications and organizational/social issues.

Day Two allowed participants to build on discussions of Day One and articulate a path forward for
addressing each set of challenges. The path forward included a vision with associated goals and
activities for each  challenge category. Recognizing overlap between these categories, break-out
discussions gave  all Summit participants the opportunity to provide input into all four aspects  of
the IEM  Roadmap.   The participants were divided  into groups  that sequentially visited each
break-out room for  90 minutes, where they focused on one aspect  of the Roadmap.  Co-
facilitators of each topic remained in the room to summarize what was discussed by each visiting
group and capture their new ideas or thoughts. The goal was to build a Roadmap including input
of all summit participants.

On Day Three, the co-facilitators for each Day Two topic reported in a series of presentations on
the  vision,   goals  and  activities  related  to  the  science,  technology,  application  and
organization/social aspects of IEM.

Participants then identified collaborative projects on which they could and would work together.  A
short discussion on  the need for and form of a governance structure and funding mechanisms
followed, concluding that a  facilitating  group would  be necessary and  that it would require
funding.  The workshop was closed by Denis Peach,  Chief Scientist of the BGS. He thanked the
participants for the  remarkable  energy and commitment they brought to the meeting and he
assigned the task  of drawing together the meeting's results to the conveners.

-------
2  Day One - Laying  the groundwork for
    roadmap development

2.1  Drivers for IBM

Pierre Glynn (USGS)  gave  a  presentation on the science and policy drivers for IEM, its
applications, and the developments needed for it to become a useful and useable tool.  The
presentation is available on iemHUB at https:://iemhub.org/resources/293.

2.1.1 Why do we need  IEM?

The immediate drivers behind IEM are the environmental problems that face policymakers and
which have  been eloquently  set out by the Belmont Forum. They require a greatly increased
understanding of Earth processes and of the Earth as a system and, hence, lead to the science
need for IEM. This, in turn, has led to the hunt for better ways of linking existing process models
to study, understand and predict their interactions.

The purpose of IEM is to  aid  in  finding and testing potential solutions to complex environmental
problems. Typically, solving these problems requires a wide range people and organizations who
can contribute knowledge  and or resources  with those who are or may be affected by the problem
or the solution.  IEM  can  help when the knowledge is  or can  be encapsulated in the form of
models; it allows models of different processes to be linked and,  hence, a greater understanding
achieved of  how the processes  will collectively respond to possible solutions. If the models are
connected to analytical and visualization tools, the decision-makers can weigh the pros and cons
and select the most acceptable option.  IEM is often required for "system of systems" analyses
that are undertaken across a  range of spatial and temporal scales and across multiple domains.
Many organizations throughout the world deal with such problems.

Table 2 provides examples of "system studies" undertaken by the USGS (and other agencies)
that could greatly benefit  from IEM, especially if further development allowed its wide adoption
across not only the science community, but also resource and environmental management and
policy communities.

-------
Table 2 Examples of USGS applications for IEM
Location
Chesapeake Bay
Upper Klamath Basin
(OR)
Everglades and south
Florida
Southern California
San Francisco Bay -
Delta
Mid-western states
US land mass
Issues
Land-use, water quality and climate change
Water allocation and fish stocks
Ecosystem services & biodiversity, invasives, sea level rise
surges and human development
, storm
Multi-hazards: earthquakes, fire, mudslides & floods
Water, invasives and climate change
Agriculture and bio-energy: benefits and impacts
Energy and mineral extraction: benefits and environmental
costs
             will IEM be

To become a useful and practical tool for scientists, policy-makers and managers, IEM needs to
be driven toward the following areas:

    •   Standards for linkage - so that independently developed modelling components can be
       easily linked

    •   Standards for semantics - so we can ensure linkages are valid

    •   Standards for model descriptions - so we can find models and later automate the linkage
       process

    •   Ease of use:

          o   hide, eliminate or automate all model integration steps that are irrelevant to the
              problem-solver

          o   develop checks for invalid linkages

          o   develop tools for handling scale issues in space and time

    •   Critical mass of linkable components - wide variety of linkable modeling components
       needs to be established and  made available and accessible, including creation of 'model
       marts'

    •   Adapters - for the foreseeable future there will be a number of linking standards;
       therefore, 'adapters' must be available so models following different interface standards
       can be linked

    •   Examples of successful applications of IEM - a wide range  are required for newcomers to
       follow and to build confidence among users and funding agencies.

    •   Transparency - it must be easy to see and understand what happens at every stage in a
       model chain

-------
    •   Auditing - the process of creating and storing an audit trail of the data, modeling
       components and results should be automated so it is possible to recreate model runs
       whose results have been used to make critical decisions

    •   Uncertainty - techniques are required for assessing uncertainty in data and model results
       and for passing uncertainty down the model chain.

    •   Systems for testing compliancy with standards

    •   Model size independence - it should be possible to integrate models of all types and
       sizes, i.e., it should support the linkage  of small and/or simple models and large and/or
       complex models

    •   Model platform independence - it should be possible to integrate models running on
       different computing platforms

    •   Model data volume/data exchange rate independence - it should be possible to link
       models where the volumes of data and or the required speed of exchange are either very
       high or low.

    •   Support and training - academia and industry need to be engaged in providing support
       and training for IEM practitioners

    •   Research - research programs need to be  established to find solutions to unsolved
       model integration problems.

    •   and many others.

2.2

The State-of-the-Art  discussion was introduced by  Alexey Voinov (University of  Twente) and can
be found  on the iemHUB at https://iemhub.org/resources/265. As there is  no agreed set of terms
for describing integrated modeling, and the audience was multinational  and drawn from  many
disciplines, he began by establishing a terminology.  In  particular, he drew upon the definition
provided  by USEPA (2008)  of 'integrated  modeling' (IM) as a  systems analysis approach to
environmental assessment that  employs a  set of interdependent components (numerical and
conceptual models,  scientific and other data  and assessment methods) brought  together to
create  a  modeling  system  capable  of  simulating environmental systems.   He differentiated
'integrated modeling' (the assembly of a variety of components into an entire model for a given
purpose  [e.g., understanding  the impact of climate change on  flood frequency]), from 'model
integration' which is concerned with mechanics and standards necessary to enable one modeling
component to pass data or information to another.

In the environmental sector, the driver of integrated modeling is the need to understand Earth's
system so fair and sustainable solutions can be found to societal challenges.  Examples are food

-------
and water security,  energy, and  environmental change. In the area of environmental change,
integrated modeling  has already been used to create climate models (which are themselves an
assembly of individual process models) and  to link  climate models to ocean  models. More
recently,  IEM has been used to couple climate and land surface models. Integrated modeling is
not confined to solving big or long-term issues, however; it is equally applicable to everyday tasks
or shorter  term  problems  such  as optimizing the operation of sewer networks  and  water
treatment, where IEM has already shown benefits. An unexpected benefit of IM is that it could
lead to modeling studies becoming significantly cheaper. In fact, some model developers believe
that the first practical use of IM will be to improve efficiency in model development and application
communities which  often conduct their work on behalf of public authorities (and at taxpayer
expense).

Challenges for IEM  include developing  better methods to anticipate the impact  of events and
better management responses to those events so that well-intended policies do not create worse
situations than they set  out to resolve. Such negative  effects  can emerge in geographical,
environmental, social or economic areas or fields that are very different from those of the original
problem.  For example, few people predicted that the switch to biofuels might lead to widespread
starvation.  Presently,  models, which  can take  many  forms, are the only  way to capture our
knowledge of processes, enabling us to predict how they might lead to different outcomes under
different circumstances. There is  a  growing  realization, however, that it is  neither practical nor
useful to  construct a single model encapsulating all the processes needed for decision-making
and planning (Argent, 2006; USEPA, 2008). Not only are such large models extremely wasteful of
resources, they are  rarely reusable  and frequently fail  to make use of existing process models.
These  are often referred to as  'legacy models'  - the result of a huge,  historic  investment
representing state-of-the-art modeling. Consequently,  there are  currently  attempts to convert
existing models into  building blocks from which more complex models can be assembled (Warner
et al., 2008; Barthel,  et al., 2008; Argent et al., 2009). In today's IT terminology, these are referred
to as 'components'; components that can be linked are 'linkable components'. The term 'modeling
component' now has a wider meaning that is not limited to  models: it includes files, databases,
analytical  tools and visualization tools  and,  indeed,  any component  required to make up a
modeling system.

Examples of attempts to streamline model integration are:

   •   The USEPA, in conjunction with the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, US Army Corps
      of Engineers,  and US Department of Energy's Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, has
      been developing the  Framework for Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems
      (FRAMES-1) (2009) system to manage execution and data flow among multiple science

-------
modules. It uses a fixed file format system to exchange data between components.  The
Multimedia, Multi-pathway, Multi-receptor Risk Analysis system (FRAMES-3MRA) (2009)
(Babendreier and Castleton, 2005) is an extension of FRAMES-1 and is based on an API
and dictionary system to exchange data. 3MRA is a collection of 17 modules that describe
the release, fate and transport, exposure, and risk (human and ecological) associated with
contaminants  deposited in various  land-based waste  management units (e.g., landfills,
waste piles).  The 17 models in 3MRA cannot be easily replaced. FRAMES-2 (Whelan et
al., 2010) represents  the best attributes of FRAMES-1  and  FRAMES-3MRA and is
designed  to  allow  for easier registration  and replacement  of models  and support
components.
The Open Modeling Interface and Environment (OpenMI, 2009) developed by a consortium
of European private companies, research establishments and universities co-funded by the
European Commission is a standard for model linkage in the water domain (Moore, et al.,
2005). The OpenMI standard version 1.4 defined an interface that allows time-dependent
models to exchange data at runtime;  hence, OpenMI-compliant models can  be  run in
parallel and share information at each time-step.  It is, therefore, particularly appropriate for
situations where it is necessary to simulate interacting processes, such as changes in flow
which increases nutrients which affect plant growth in a river which, in turn, affects flow. It
can handle feedback loops and iteration. It can link models based on different modeling
concepts. The OpenMI is generic and can link models from different domains (hydraulics,
hydrology, ecology, water quality, economics etc.), environments (atmospheric, freshwater,
marine,  terrestrial,  urban,  rural,  etc.), scales  and  resolutions (spatial  or  temporal),
platforms, or suppliers.  It is not limited to linking models, but can also link any modeling
components.  The OpenMI  version 2.0 paves the way for linking models that run  in  a
super-computing environment and models provided as web services.  It  can exchange a
wider range of data types and simplifies the exchange process when models have no
spatial  and or temporal dimensions, such as a terrain model. While version  1.4  only
provided  a 'get values' data option, version  2.0 also provides  a 'set values' option to
facilitate model optimization.
The Common  Component Architecture (CCA) is a product developed by the Department of
Energy and Lawrence Livermore National Lab teams (Bernholdt et al., 2004) which targets
high  performance computers  and complex  models.   The CCA  supports  parallel  and
distributed  computing,  as  well  as   local  high-performance  connections   between
components, in a language-independent manner. The design places minimal  requirements
on components and facilitates integration of existing legacy code into the CCA environment
by means of the Babel (2004) language interoperability tool, which currently supports C,
C++, Fortran  77,  Fortran  90/95, and Python. The  CCA is being applied in a  variety of

-------
      disciplines, including combustion research, global climate simulation, and computational
      chemistry; it has also been adopted as the backbone in the Community Surface Dynamic
      Modeling System (CSDMS, csdms.colorado.edu).
   •  The Object Modeling System (QMS) was developed by the US Department of Agriculture
      (David et al., 2002; Kralisch et al., 2004; Ahuja et al., 2005).  In contrast to FRAMES and
      some other systems, QMS requires modules to be rewritten in Java prior to insertion into
      the system library.   Instead of just  linking pre-existing blocks or components,  QMS
      provides the tools and integrated framework to develop the components  of an IEM in a
      coherent way.
Despite the evident need for IEM, it has yet to "take off in the way its proponents hoped. The
reasons include: (1) lack of a convincing set of demonstrated added value provided by IEM; (2)
lack of a critical mass of available and accessible linkable modeling components; and (3) difficulty
of use  and  other barriers to entry,  such  as  making existing models linkable.  However,
communities of practice are slowly emerging as a part of a number of IEM initiatives, which are
attempting to address the challenges of IEM.  Currently, the initiatives and their communities are
relatively isolated because there is no umbrella organization to bring them together. Examples of
these communities and initiatives include:

      • OpenMI   Association   which  makes   the  OpenMI   standard   freely  available
      (www.openmi.org);
      • CSDMS -  Community  Surface Dynamic Modeling System which "makes earth surface
      process models available, has computational resources for model simulations, and couples
      models that bridge critical process domains" (csdms.colorado.edu);
      • CCMP - Chesapeake Community Modeling Program, dedicated to advancing the  cause
      of accessible, open-source  environmental models of the Chesapeake Bay in support of
      research & management efforts (ches.communitymodeling.org);
      • ESMF - the Earth System  Modeling  Framework:  software for building and  coupling
      weather, climate, and related models (www.earthsystemmodeling.org)
      • CHyMP - the Community Hydrologic Modeling Platform (www.cuahsi.org/chymp.html),
      and other platforms.
      There are also communities designed to support individual models and software packages,
      such as:
                                          10

-------
      • GRASS - free Geographic Information System (CIS) software used for geospatial data
      management and analysis, image processing, graphics/maps production, spatial modeling,
      and visualization (grass.fbk.eu);
      • MapWindow - another CIS  project that includes a free desktop geographic information
      system (CIS) application with an extensible plugin architecture (www.mapwindow.org);
      • ADCIRC - a system of computer programs for solving time dependent,  free surface
      circulation and transport problems in two and three dimensions (www.unc.edu/ims/adcirc/);
      and many others.
The International Summit was a product of the need for an umbrella organization to synchronize
efforts, encourage adoption of minimum standards to facilitate communication  and  collaboration,
and accelerate innovation and use of IEM.
Roger Moore (OpenMI Association) led the discussion on the future of IEM. His talk is available
on the iemHUB at https://iemhub.org/resources/303.  The purpose of this session was to define a
vision and,  hence,  a set  of  objectives  for the integrated modeling community.  From  those
objectives,  subsequent sessions identified challenges to  be  overcome  and a Roadmap for
achieving the vision.

The International Summit was held because people closely involved with integrated modeling saw
its huge potential and opportunities for science, industry and the whole of society. It was realized,
however, that, few people  outside the modeling community were aware  of those opportunities
and that, of those few, a  number were  skeptical  of whether  the opportunities could ever be
achieved.

Before looking forward, the session dealt with two related  points:   the  difficult and complex
challenges  of environmental problem-solving, and why recent advances in IEM encourage us to
believe these challenges can be overcome.

The primary concerns about IEM  are expressed in many ways, but essentially relate to the idea
that presently our abilities to model individual environmental, social and economic processes are
often  limited. Thus, the probability that we would learn or  predict anything useful about the
interactions between those processes by linking current models could be extremely low. Further,
it is often suggested that any integrated models capable  of providing useful results would  be so
complex we could not create them. So why persist?
                                          11

-------
The counter-argument was provided with two examples: e development of jet airliners and use of
Google Maps on mobile phones. Both ventures would have seemed impossibly complex had they
been proposed  as part of a full-scope, long-term vision in 1903 or 1970, respectively. Yet, these
two accomplishments were achieved as the result of hundreds of thousands of small advances in
many domains. Both started  in  back  rooms and  universities  and were then taken  up by
governments and  industry.  Eventually  the products emerged that are now being used by
everyone. It took time, but it  happened. The development and future of IEM can be expected to
be similar.   We know there are challenges ahead,  but we have every confidence they can be
overcome. Determination and persistence are required.

Looking  toward the future,  the  main  driver  for integrated  modeling  will  be  the need  for
environmental sustainability allied to socio-economic impacts. Integrated modeling is the only way
of testing/predicting the likely sustainability of a proposed policy. With some important exceptions
to date, single process models have been used to test the viability of environmental solutions or
policies. To  examine the wider implications of  a policy or scheme, however, absolutely requires
the  linkage  and integration  of a  number  of individual  process models, typically across very
different domains of investigation.  For example, whereas the feasibility of a new reservoir would
only have been  looked at for its ability to  supply a required amount of water, in the past, now its
impact on the environment, society and the economy must also be considered.

In our vision for the future of  IEM, standards and platforms will emerge to make it much easier to
put  models together and   increase our understanding of how Earth's system works and, most
importantly,  how man's activities  and the earth system interact. At first,  existing models will be
linked and many results  will be  less than perfect;  however, relatively  simple  applications  will
emerge that provide better results than are presently achievable with individual process models
(e.g.,  optimizing sewer operation during times of flooding).  Initial couplings  will tend to be
between  models within a domain, but there  is already pressure to make couplings across domain
boundaries (e.g., linking medical models to environmental models). This  is an area where there
are  real  possibilities  for  innovation and  synergy.  It is our  hope that open,   transparent
collaborations and linkages, using the promising tools offered by new media and communication
platforms (such  as the Web 2.0), can be exploited to enable workers across the world to leverage
their efforts  and resources, driving innovation and the synergistic application and use of IEM to
new heights.

In assessing sustainability, the wider implications of a policy must  be anticipated so they can be
evaluated. As many unanticipated outcomes have demonstrated, there is considerable room for
improvement. Our  vision of the future shows the  number of unanticipated outcomes being
reduced.  By storing process descriptions so that potential  interactions between processes can be
                                           12

-------
explored, and by linking process descriptions to models and data sources, it should be possible to
spot connections and, thus, consequences that would otherwise be missed. In time it should be
possible to semi-automate anticipating and quantifying impacts, beneficial or otherwise. We may
not eliminate 'Black Swans' (low probability high-impact events with negative consequences),  but
we can work to reduce their frequency and their impacts.

At the moment, IEM requires experts for its application, yet an important element of the vision is
that  IEM be accessible to everyone. The  transition  is  expected to  happen in small steps.  To
create the  huge resources required and increase the rate of innovation, it is envisaged that a
global  community  of practice  will  emerge  to   facilitate  collaboration,  cooperation  and
communication. A small set of standards will evolve so people and models can communicate. To
show how  benefits of integrated modeling can be made available to  all, an example  (using a
model developed by the NRCS) of how a farmer with a  mobile phone could walk into a  field and
obtain immediate guidance on the agricultural management of his crops to minimize soil erosion
was given.  He merely had to locate himself using maps on his phone, then  run a small application
which connected to the integrated data and modeling resources of the USGS and USDA  (NRCS).

In our vision, the evolution of integrated  modeling follows a similar path to  digital mapping, which
were initiated by individuals and small academic groups. The  first hesitant steps  outside were
with the support of government  agencies  which facilitated the transition from research to  the
operational world. The next stage, which has yet to happen for integrated modeling, is to gain  the
interest  of industry.  Although  digital mapping  sped up map  production,  facilitated  planning
processes and, later, provided ways to analyze  and exploit the content of paper maps, it has  led
to an entire new wealth-creating industry and  unlocked opportunities  never dreamed  of by its
initiators. We expect integrated  modeling to create similar opportunities.

The  session's  conclusion was  that  although challenges to our vision are considerable, no one
believes they are insurmountable. Armed  with experience from  previous developments, we can
assemble  the  resources  and  innovative  minds required to overcome them. Sustainability in
managing  our landscapes and resources is so important that we cannot afford to fail. The wealth-
generating  opportunities of IEM will help ensure that we succeed.

2.4

Having outlined a vision of the potential opportunities IEM could create, this session set out to
identify the challenges that must be overcome for  the vision  to be  achieved.   Pierre Glynn
(USGS) presented  an outline of  these.  His  presentation is available on the  iemHUB at
https://iemhub.org/resources/295.    There  are many  challenges  ahead that  could  easily
                                           13

-------
discourage the most ardent supporters of IEM. An historical view of past human endeavors, such
as the development of communications or advances in  flight technologies,  shows  that the
specifics   of  today's  capabilities  or the  precise  and  complete  sequence  of  incremental
achievements could  hardly have  been envisioned  during the initial stages of development of
these technologies.  Nevertheless, progress was made because there was a constant societal
need for the developing technologies, that allowed (and funded) ways to overcoming of individual
challenges, often providing immediately useful advances. The development community also had
a vision of what technological development could mean for our future.   Development of IEM
depends on a general vision and meeting  incremental challenges as they arise, with immediately
useful benefits.  As  was mentioned  at the Summit,  there are many ways to think about and
categorize challenges IEM must meet.  One way spelled out in the Summit's Participant Guide
and in a presentation at the  workshop is to consider the evolutionary, iterative  stages in the
lifecycle of a given IEM:   (1) definition,  (2)  assembly, (3) execution  and  processing,  (4)
interpretation, (5) application  and follow-ups, and (6) education and propagation to a broader
community.  Another way, derived from the four working groups of the Summit, is to categorize
the challenges  as  scientific,  technological,  application,  and/or  organizational  and  social
challenges. This report provides a broad-brush summary reported on in the four categories.

Scientific challenges include accurate capture and representation of uncertainty in  input data,
conceptual models and  IEM results.  Construction  and execution of data  assimilation, process
assimilation,  and model abstraction  strategies  were also mentioned, as were challenges of
defining, implementing and linking IEM processes to  integrate across a range of spatial scales,
time scales,  and disciplinary  domains. Clearly  establishing  and  understanding IEM domain
boundaries, parameterizations, and constitutive relations (i.e., what is empirical vs. what is based
on conservation  laws) are also  important  challenges,  as well as  development and integration of
appropriate objective functions, best practices, and cross-scale testing procedures for the IEM.  It
was recognized that different types of IEM applications (prognostic vs. diagnostic; forecasting vs.
nowcasting vs. hindcasting) had their own types of  scientific challenges, but that these different
types of applications, when properly  defined and understood  within their  respective  limitations,
could  also help inform each other and build confidence.  The role of science in helping building
confidence in IEM through open-access and peer-review was also mentioned, - most importantly
by providing  expert  opinion and  understanding  on  the appropriate levels of complexity and
simplicity in IEM construction  and interpretation.  Finally, the need for better understanding and
linkages between the social science and the physical/chemical/biological science aspects of IEM
was also mentioned.  This is a fundamental challenge  for inter-disciplinary approaches in a range
of disciplines  and a number of issues, including recognition by peers  in the science community for
inter- and trans-disciplinary research,  must be considered.
                                           14

-------
Technology challenges discussed during the Summit related to disparate ontologies, meta-data
standards, meta-model definitions, and lack of semantic interoperability.  They relate to the need
for more sophisticated, adaptable, and linkable  model frameworks, enhanced use of the Cloud,
web  services, multiple computer platforms and  processors, and expert communities.   They
include developing better technology for data (and model) mining, discovery, and linkages and
also developing better tools to analyze, interpret, and visualize data, conceptual models and IEM
results.   Challenges  also  include development of technologies that  could  educate about,
understand and build confidence in IEM results and applications.

Application challenges included appropriately defining measures of success and demonstrating
successful applications of IEM. Applying IEM successfully - where success could not have been
obtained as easily through other means - is essential to further development of IEM science and
technology, to growth of the  IEM community  of  practice, and  to the embrace of  IEM by the
general  population.   It was recognized that the scale of IEM applications has much to do with
understanding and confidence in IEM results and,  ultimately, with adoption of IEM throughout the
community.  A three-month IEM forecast is much easier to test, and possibly build confidence in,
compared to a 100-year or even decadal-scale forecast.  Individuals and communities may relate
better to a local  or regional  IEM prediction or process explanation than a global prediction,
explanation or other IEM application.  Allied  to this is the challenge of assessing and presenting
uncertainty from  different sources in  a way  that  a  range of  decision-makers  can readily
appreciate. Clear, simple explanations of what  IEM  can, and can't, be used for are essential for
any demonstration  project.   Equally  important are explanations  of how IEM  can serve the
objectives and organizational missions of agencies or communities, and of what the political limits
might be in  management actions taken  as  a result of IEM  results and  interpretations.  Some
application challenges will result from the need to  apply creativity and appropriate understanding
of IEM  assumptions  and limitations  while applying/transferring  results  of an IEM or  IEM
application  to another problem  or situation.     Finally, and perhaps  most importantly,  IEM
applications will require constant reassessment of whether the right questions are being asked,
and determining what roles  IEM developers, topical experts, users,  managers  and the  public
should  play  in  formulating  these questions,  and interpreting  results so that  appropriate
management and policy actions are taken.

Organization/Community challenges included appropriate engagement with and support from
developers,   users,  academia,   and   governmental  and  non-governmental  organizations.
Traditionally,  numerical codes and model applications  were controlled  by a limited number of
people,  usually those  developing the  code  and a few  applying it to a given problem.  By the
nature of their complexity, lEMs and their applications  require  a much  broader community of
developers, users and others (and computer and  other resources) to support the IEM, to share
                                           15

-------
responsibilities, and to interpret and apply its results.   Challenges to IEM growth, development
and applications include transcending disciplinary barriers, as well as mission, organizational and
cultural barriers, while still maintaining incentives for individuals and specific communities and
organizations to contribute actively.   Challenges also include teaching  IEM  at  a range of
educational  levels  and developing IEM  "integration  experts" that  can lead development and
proper application of IEM.  Involving the private sector, which will complement initial growth of
IEM  in the  government  and  academic  communities,  is  also  an  essential requirement (and
challenge) for  IEM development and growth.  Reinsurers are already  investigating  IEM to help
assess hurricane damage by  integrating Atmospheric-Oceanic-Circulation-Financial models, so
can  provide expertise as well  as capital.   Beyond  needs  for increased funding and  inter-
organizational  communication, successful  use and growth  of  IEM also requires   a balance
between  multi-expert  and  multi-user group consensus, and allowing individual expertise in
building  and applying IEM.  In  other words,  IEM community structures,  and  feedback and
accountability processes,  must allow the wisdom of communities to  shine, rather than the follies
of the flock in order to show IEM to its full advantage).

2.5  Results  of breakout groups for Day One

Throughout  Day One,  participants were able to break into smaller groups to further identify the
current landscape of lEM's state-of-the-art and practice; develop vision statements related to the
science, technology, application and organization/community aspects of IEM; and identify the
challenges to achieving those  visions. The findings of Day One  breakout sessions can be found
on the iemHUB at https://iemhub.org/resources/281.

Based on  the previous presentations, the IEM Summit participants developed vision statements
for four areas:

    •  Science:  Science  supporting  IEM and its application will continue to evolve to inform
       policy decisions and communicate to society environmental problems and solutions. IEM
       will  use  state-of-the-art  predictive  capabilities  for  multi-scale  multiple  interacting
       processes  that  represent environmental  responses to perturbations   in  natural or
       engineered settings. Uncertainty analysis will be  used  to critically evaluate the  limitations
       of IEM.
    .   Technology:  IEM technology will  make it easier  to find,  use,  develop,  integrate,
       understand, and future-proof models and data.
                                           16

-------
Application:  IEM will support robust and defensible decision-making providing for a
range of users, producing results in an appropriate form, using readily available data  and
models.
Organization/Community:  The  IEM  community will  be  open  (sharing),  efficient,
transparent, and  collaborative,  to  advance science &  technologies to make effective
environmental decisions for societal benefits.
                                    17

-------
3  Day Two - Developing  the  IEM  Roadmap

On Day Two participants broke into four groups. Each group was asked to expand/clarify the Day
One vision statements into a  revised vision statement and set of IEM goals for each topic area:
science, technology, applications and organization/community. They were then asked to propose
activities to achieve the goals. The results follow.

3.1   Science vision,  goals and activities

A summary of the discussions of the science area breakouts can be found on the iemHUB at
https://iemhub.org/resources/352.

3.1.1  Vision
Science supporting IEM and its application will continue to evolve to inform policy decisions and
communicate to society environmental problems and solutions.  IEM will  use state-of-the-art
predictive capabilities for multi-scale multiple interacting processes that represent environmental
responses to perturbations in  natural or engineered settings. Uncertainty analysis will be used to
critically evaluate the limitations of IEM.

3.1.2  Goals
The break out groups identified the following Science  goals:

   a.  Establishing a scientifically sound methodology for approaching problems which require
       integrated modeling in order to find a solution
   b.  Establishing scientifically respected  controlled vocabularies, ontologies and catalogues of
       processes, process variables, models and exchange items to  reduce the opportunity for
       error and automate the construction of the model chain
   c.  Understanding and developing  the means to  handle the scientific issues that arise when
       models based on different scales are linked
   d.  Understanding and developing  the means to  handle the scientific issues that arise when
       models which run at different temporal or spatial resolutions are linked
   e.  Understanding and developing the  means to reduce the occurrence of instabilities that
       arise when models are linked
                                        18

-------
    f.  Developing  methods for assessing, quantifying and displaying the uncertainties arising
       from the use of integrated modeling
    g.  Developing  an  approach to  model development and a mindset among developers that
       assumes that, at some point in a model's life cycle, there will be a need to link it to other
       models
    h.  By working  with the artificial intelligence community, developing ways of exploiting the
       growing  knowledge  of process  interaction to identify and predict the  possible wider
       implications of events and policies and so lower the risk of 'unforeseen  consequences'.

3.1.3  Activities

       To achieve the specified IEM goals the breakout groups proposed  the following Science
       activities for each goal:

a)            an
    •   Review the approaches of past and present IEM projects
    •   Develop and publicize best practice
b)                                                                                    of
                                                      to        the             for
             the

    •   Identify current problems and the opportunities ahead - need to reduce the opportunity
       for error in building model chains, automating model chain construction, linking IEM to
       artificial intelligence, needs of regulators, lowering the barriers created by national and
       domain specific languages, etc.
    •   Build on/adopt existing controlled vocabularies
    •   Develop ontology structures for describing processes and models
    •   Develop methods for searching for links between processes
    •   Develop methods for linking process descriptions to model descriptions
    •   Develop methods for auto mating the construction of a model chain
cj                              the       to        the
             on                are

    •   Review existing work on scale issues

                                           19

-------
    •   Study the scale issues that are likely to arise as it becomes easier to link models
    •   Develop methods to warn users that a scale  issue might arise when two models are
       linked and suggest options for handling them
d)                               the        to        the
                 at                  or                   are

    •   Review existing work on linkage issues
    •   Study the issues that have and/or are likely to arise as it becomes easier to link models
    •   Develop methods to warn users that an issue might arise when two models are  linked
       and suggest options for handling them
e)                               the        to        the            of
                  are

    •   Review existing work on instability in models
    •   Examine known instances of instability occurring where models have been linked
    •   Develop procedures for recognizing the potential for instability in a coupling and the step
       to avoid or reduce the likelihood of instability
fj                      for                                      the
     the    of

    •   Review existing work
    •   Identify the opportunity for error in the model chain
    •   Develop methods for capturing and recording uncertainty
    •   Develop methods for passing uncertainty down the model chain
    •   Develop methods for displaying uncertainty
g)            an           to                          a
              at            In a          life cycle,           be a      to      It to
models

The activities are implicit in the goal.
                                           20

-------
h) By              the                     (AI)                             of
the                     of         Interaction to              predict the          wider
            of events                so lower the     of'unforeseen

    •   Review AI work in this field
    •   Consider how IEM ontologies might need to be modified to incorporate AI thinking
    •   Undertake research projects to explore how the wider implications of a proposal might be
       identified and then assessed quantitatively or qualitatively

3.2  Technology vision, goals and activities

A summary of the discussions of the technology area breakouts can be found on the iemHUB at
https://iemhub.org/resources/380.

3.2.1  Vision
IEM technology will make it easier to find, use, develop, integrate, understand, and future-proof models and
data.

3.2.2  Goals
The breakout groups identified the following goals:

    a.  Raising the level of interoperability and portability of modeling components
    b.  Automating IM processes that are irrelevant to the IM user
    c.  Improving the usability of tools - lowering the barriers to entry - increasing access
    d.  Creating a web service market supported by e-infrastructure
    e.  Creating the ability to assess uncertainty and pass it down the model chain - delivers the
       science work above
    f.   Establishing an IEM culture based upon best practice

3.2.3  Activities
To achieve the goals the breakout groups  proposed the following activities for each goal:

a)        the level of Interoperability    portability of

    •   Develop use cases and create test  beds by which standards  and frameworks can be
       assessed
                                          21

-------
    •   Identify the base standard common to the main existing standards (e.g. ESMF, OpenMI,
       CSDMS/CCA, FRAMES and QMS)
    •   Develop adapters allowing data exchange between the  main existing standards (e.g.
       ESMF, OpenMI, CSDMS/CCA, FRAMES and QMS)
    •   Develop a 'meta model' standard for describing models and  modeling components for
       both cataloguing models and as a first step towards validating linkages and automating
       the construction of model chains
    •   Develop ontologies to improve semantic interoperability - builds on the science activities
b)           IM              are          to the IM

    •   Develop/advance tools that support the migration of models to conform with standards
    •   Develop/advance tools for meta model and data extraction  from IM components
    •   Develop/advance tools for finding, linking and running models
    •   Develop ontologies and apply  Al techniques to automate the construction of  models
       chains
c) Improving the usability of tools - lowering     barriers to entry - increasing access

    •   Develop tools for:
           o  Discovery and accessing model components and data
           o  Meta model and data entry and retrieval
           o  Visualization of multidimensional data
           o  Automatic construction of audit trails
d)         a                            by

    •   Resolve IT security and certification issues
    •   Create and advance the model and data cloud
    •   Create/advance a registry of IEM components in the cloud
    •   Develop web-based demonstrator applications
    •   Create modeling platforms which include market places
                                         22

-------
e)        the       to                          It      the

    •   Develop tools for monitoring and debugging model chains
    •   Develop methods and tools for describing and exchanging uncertainty
    •   Develop techniques for computing ensemble statistics
fj            an

    •   Survey existing best practice across the community (compare and contrast)
    •   Create more sessions at professional meetings so that best practice can be identified
    •   Encourage the creation of open  source software and so remove barriers to the use of
       best modeling components

3.3  Application  vision, goals and activities

A summary of the discussions of the science area can be found on iemHUB at
https://iemhub.org/resources/283.

3.3.1  Vision
IEM will support robust and defensible decision-making providing  for a range of users producing
results in an appropriate form, using readily available data and models.

The end users to whom this vision applies to are likely to be:
    •   Government (central and local)
    •   Regulators and enforcers
    •   Industry (including the insurance  and financial sectors) both for its own purposes and on
       behalf of others
    •   NGOs
    •   Scientists
    •   Students of all ages
    •   The general public

3.3.2  Goals
The breakout groups identified the following goals:

                                          23

-------
    a.  Providing modeling platforms - to make data, models and tools readily available
    b.  Establishing show-case projects to demonstrate the added value of integrated modeling
    c.  Producing descriptions of the uncertainty associated with results
    d.  Developing systems to manage and maintain an audit trail of integrated model runs
    e.  Engaging stakeholders

3.3.3  Activities

To achieve the goals the breakout groups proposed the following activities for each goal:

a)

    •   Encourage the  development  of modeling  platforms where  researchers can develop
       linkable modeling components, research process interactions, and teach and provide a
       learning environment for students
    •   Encourage the  development of platforms  that provide a shop  window for modeling
       components  where  end users  and  potential vendors can view potential modeling
       components with a view to use or commercialization
    •   Work to achieve a critical mass of linkable components
    •   Develop a searchable modeling component catalogue
    •   Consider the possibility of data, modeling components and results as web services
    •   Consider integrated modeling for mobile devices and the cloud
'.   •  -.''

    •   Encourage establishing  setting up of as wide a range  of show-case  projects, with  the
       following attributes, when and where possible:
           o   Address a real world problem with which users can identify
           o   Require integrated modeling in the process of finding a solution
           o   Define the scenarios to be explored
           o   Consider how to evaluate the benefits of integrated modeling
           o   Identify the processes involved
           o   Identify the process interactions
                                           24

-------
           o  Choose models to represent the processes
           o  Translate the process interactions into model linkages
           o  Make non-linkable models linkable
           o  Link the models
           o  Run the scenarios
           o  Analyze the results
           o  Evaluate the benefits of integrated modeling
    •   Create a catalogue of show case projects  containing one page summaries.
    •   Example show case projects:
           o  Scenario analysis
                  •    Impact of medical plans for treating epidemics on waste water treatment
                      and water supplies
                  •    Chesapeake Bay
                  •    Energy/water/food security
                  •    Impact of agricultural policy
                  •    Impact of proposed new sewage treatment plant
                  •    Impact of climate change  on frequency and cost of flood damage
           o  Post-event audit
                  •    Hurricanes - Katrina - New Orleans
                  •    Oil spills - Deep Water Horizon
                  •    Floods - Pakistan
           o  Emergency planning
                  •    San Francisco
c)

    •   Apply and evaluate methods of characterizing uncertainty
    •   Apply and evaluate methods for passing  information about uncertainty down the model
       chain
    •   Understand how stakeholders react to uncertainty
                                          25

-------
    •   Develop methods for displaying uncertainty
d)                                    for

    •   Establishing a methodology for approaching problems that requires integrated modeling
       to find a solution
    •   Automating the recording of the information required to be in the audit trail
e)

    •   Develop participatory modeling
    •   Develop models for 'citizen science'
    •   Develop integrated modeling games
           o  Develop a 'Black Swan X-box game'
           o  Develop linkable versions of SPLASH and Sim City.
    •   Develop mobile apps as easily useable front ends to complex integrated models

3.4  Organization/Community vision, goals and  activities

A summary of the discussions for the science area breakout can be found on the iemHUB at
https://iemhub.org/resources/380.

3.4.1  Vision

      IEM  community is open (sharing), efficient, transparent and  collaborative to  advance
      science and technologies to make effective environmental decisions, for issues requiring
      trans-disciplinary approach, for societal  benefits.

3.4.2  Goals

The break out groups identified the following goals:
a.   Establish an inclusive  IEM  CoP that:  (1) Recognizes  realistic  goals; (2)  Exists as the
    communication platform;  (3)  Attracts funding and  (4) Operates  under clear definition  of
    contributions from each member/ member organization
b.   Create  an e-infrastructure that (1) Provides a single catalogue of components (models, data,
    tools); (2) Supports (access to) HPC & cloud computing; (3) Broadcasts funding opportunities
    for IEM; and (4) provides links to IEM practitioners and experts
c.   Comprehensive IEM Education Plan encompassing technical workforce, users and public.

                                          26

-------
d.   Reach common agreed upon standards model linking and data sharing.
e.   Funding for both operations of CoP and projects in IEM is readily available and coordinated
    across organizations
f.   Implement information outreach that secures user buy-in, identifies & engages stakeholders
    and shares success stories

3.4.3  Activities
To achieve the goals the break out groups proposed the following activities for each goal:

a)          an             CoP      (1)                          (2)      as the
                         (3)                    (4)                              of


    .   Develop a governance structure
    .   Identify and involve existing organizations and initiatives to establish connections
    .   Identify lessons learned from growing similar CoPs to achieve critical mass
    .   Develop newsletters and workshops to promote development of community
b)        an                    (1)         a                of
            (2)                 to) HPC &
             for         (4)              to

    .   Develop, populate and maintain an IEM  "content"  database  that can be  accessed by
       multiple portals -> iemHUB
    .   Develop a technical steering committee for the  iemHUB
c)

    .   Technical Workforce:
           o   Develop training, curricula  material, courses and workshops for IEM/ systems
               analysis
           o   Identify educators affiliated with IEM (1-3 years)
           o   Develop online tutorials for the IEM community (1-3 years)
           o   IEM summer school for graduate students (3-5 years)
           o   Set of "How to..." notes for different aspects  of IEM.
                                          27

-------
       Users:
           o  Develop a speaker series for the user community to the IEM community (1-3
              years)
           o  Either identify an existing journal or create a new journal to provide a venue for
              IEM (1-3 years)
           o  Develop  a  personnel   exchange  program  for  end-user  community  and
              development/modeler organizations
       Public:
           o  IEM games for K-12 (young adults) to demonstrate inter-related disciplines are
              needed to address key environmental problems
d)

    .   Create a working group at OGC to reuse/improve standards for IEM
    .   Establish a standards committee to develop IEM standards and protocols
    .   Conduct an assessment study to demonstrate the financial benefits of using standards -
       "what would xyz-system cost today, if standards abc would have been used?"
    .   Encourage organizations to require the use of standards for the projects they fund
e)        for                of CoP            In     is

    •   Develop a cost-benefit, return on investment, net current value financial justification for
       investment in IEM
f)                                                                &


    .   High quality promotional material making an irresistible case for IEM
    .   Define benefits of lEM/community approach to IEM
    .   Identify and engage potential users/stakeholders by offering specific solutions to  known
       problems
                                          28

-------
4  Day Three - summary of roadmaps  and
    development and  implementation  plans

4.1  Projects

Participants agreed it was imperative to build quickly on the success of the workshop by initiating
projects that would yield results in the short- to medium-term, as well as projects that would
require longer collaboration.

Projects to be initiated immediately fell in the following categories:

   •  Creating  short  exchanges  of  staff between  organizations to "cheerlead" to inject
      enthusiasm into the process of adopting IEM
   •  Identifying required standards
   •  Converting cte facto standards into recognized standards (e.g., making the OpenMI  into
      an OGC standard)
   •  Building a catalogue of integrated modeling components
   •  Setting up small pilot/demonstration projects
   •  Building a set of summary sheets describing integrated modeling projects
   •  Increasing the number of linkable modeling components
Potential collaborative projects were also identified. These are detailed in Appendix 4 and are
available on the iemHUB at https://iemhub.org/groups/iemsummitproj.

4.2  Community governance

Noha Gaber (USEPA) led a discussion on  reaching consensus on governance of the Community
of Practice for  Integrated Environmental Modeling (CIEM).   Participants agreed that the CIEM
should serve as the body to facilitate communication, coordination and collaboration in the IEM
community, and that it was important for the community to develop appropriate governance  and
funding mechanisms to keep the CIEM operational and able to meet its  goals.  Participants
discussed  the  CIEM mission  statements and  defining characteristics.   There was general
agreement that modest  resources would be required to sustain an IEM secretariat, charged with
CIEM's day-to-day operations such as promotion, organizing and running meetings, web  site
maintenance and outreach.   Significant resources  would  be  required  by the  collaborative
                                      29

-------
opportunities  and  any resulting projects  - present and  future - set up  to  overcome  the
challenges.

There was consensus that CIEM should be a not-for-profit, umbrella  organization and the term 'a
community of communities' was mentioned.  It would not acquire or distribute  funds, but instead
seek to influence funding agencies and help member organizations find and/or generate funding
for research and operations.  A team was formed to  finalize the CIEM  charter and develop its
governance structure and funding plan. In addition to the funding required to maintain the CIEM,
participants identified other funding needs, namely projects to address challenges related to the
science, technology and application of IEM.
                                           30

-------
5  Summary  and the way forward

The meeting was remarkable in a number of ways. Right from the start, it was clear that this was
a key meeting for the future of IEM, happening at just the right time. Despite coming from very
different backgrounds, all the participants realized that common challenges were faced and that
collaboration was the only way forward. The meeting  offered a clear consensus that, with more
collaboration, the rewards offered by integrated  environmental modeling (IEM) for society and
industry would be enormous. The greatest challenge will be turning IEM from its present state -
something used by researchers - into an operational tool for anyone.

The meeting convened model  developers, users, and  science and resource managers from the
US and Europe. Over three days,  they reviewed the state-of-the-art and sketched a vision  of
where IEM might go in the next 20  years. They then identified challenges to attaining the vision
and developed an outline of a Roadmap to overcome  them.  The  meeting  concluded  with
establishing collaborative  opportunities and projects  to accelerate the development of IEM.
Developing and implementing the Roadmap was recognized as key to lEM's future.

"Next  steps" to continue the progress  made at the meeting were summarized by Denis  Peach
(BGS) (see https://iemhub.org/resources/288):

   •   Document the Roadmap,
   •   Publish the Roadmap in the Journal of Environmental Modeling and Software,
   •   Implement projects  to enhance  communication,  co-ordination  and collaboration  in
       integrated environmental modeling,
   •   Establish the presence of the IEM community with research organizations (NERC, NSF),
       European Commission and industry (IT and Re-Insurance).
                                        31

-------
6   References
Ahuja, L.R., Ascough II, J.C., David, O., 2005. Developing natural resource models using the
object modeling system: feasibility and challenges. Advances in Geosciences 4, 29e36.
http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/docs/00/29/68/06/PDF/adgeo-4-29-2005.pdf.
Argent, R. M., Voinov, A., Maxwell, T., Cuddy, S. M., Rahman, J. M., Seaton, S., Vertessy, R. A.,
and Braddock, R. D., 2006. "Comparing modelling frameworks - A workshop approach."
Environmental Modelling & Software, 21(7), 895-910.
Argent, R.M.,  Perraud, J.-M., Rahman, J.M., Grayson, R.B., Podger, G.M., 2009. A new approach
to water quality modelling and environmental decision support systems. Environmental Modelling
& Software 24 (7), 809e818.
Babel, 2004. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory homepage
http://www.llnl.gov/CASC/components/babel.html
Babendreier, J.E., Castleton, K.J., 2005. Investigating uncertainty and sensitivity in integrated,
multimedia environmental models: tools for FRAMESeSMRA. Environmental Modelling &
Software 20 (8), 1043e1055.
Barthel,  R., Janisch, S., Schwarz, N., Trifkovic, A., Nickel, D., Schulz, C., Mauser, W., 2008.  An
integrated modelling framework for simulating regional-scale actor responses to global change in
the water domain. Environmental Modelling & Software 23 (9), 1095e1121.
Bernholdt, D.E., B.A. Allan, R. Armstrong, F. Bertrand, K. Chiu, T.L. Dahlgren, K., Damevski,
W.R. Elwasif,  T.G.W. Epperly, M. Govindaraju, D.S. Katz, J.A. Kohl, M., Krishnan, G. Kumfert,
J.W. Larson, S. Lefantzi, M.J. Lewis, A.D. Malony, L.C., Mclnnes, J. Nieplocha, B. Norris, S.G.
Parker, J. Ray, S. Shende, T.L. Windus and S. Zhou, 2004..A component architecture for high
performance scientific computing, International Journal of High Performance Computing
Applications https://e-reportsext.llnl.gov/pdf/314847.pdf ACTS Collection Special Issue, 75 pp.
David, O., S.L. Markstrom, K.W. Rojas, L.R. Ahuja and I.W.  Schneider, 2002. The Object
Modeling System. In: L. Ahuja, L. Ma and T. Howell, Editors, Agricultural System Models in Field
Research and Technology Transfer, CRC Press, pp. 317-330.
Kralisch, S., Krause, P., David, O., 2004. Using the Object Modeling System for hydrological
model development and application. In: Proceedings of the iEMSs 2004 International Conference.
University of Osnabruck, Germany.
http://www.iemss.org/iemss2004/pdf/integratedmodelling/kralusin.pdf, 6 pp.
                                          32

-------
FRAMES, 2009 http://www.epa.gov/ATHENS/research/modelinq/3mra.html.
OpenMI, 2009. The Open-Mi life project website http://www.openmi-life.org/, 2009.
Moore R., P. Gijsbers, D. Fortune, J. Gergersen and M. Blind, 2005. OpenMI Document Series:
Part A Scope for the OpenMI (Version 1.0), HarmonIT
USEPA 2008, Integrated Modeling for Integrated Environmental Decision Making. EPA100/R-
08/010. Washington, DC. Office of the Science Advisor
Voinov, A. A., C. DeLuca, R. R. Hood, S. Peckham, C.  R. Sherwood, and J. P. M. Syvitski, 2010.
A Community Approach to Earth Systems Modeling, Eos Trans. AGU, 97(13),
doi:10.1029/201OEO130001.
Warner, J.C., Perlin, N., Skyllingstad, E.D., 2008. Using the Model Coupling Toolkit to couple
earth system models. Environmental Modelling & Software 23 (10e11), 1240e1249.
Whelan, G., M.E. Tryby, M.A. Pelton, J.A. Seller, and K.J. Castleton. 2010. "Using an Integrated,
Multi-disciplinary Framework to Support Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessments."
                                         33

-------
7  Glossary
Al     Artificial Intelligence: approach that uses computers to simulate human thought
API    Application Programming Interface: A set of rules and definitions that software use to
communicate with each other, e.g. OpenMI and its implementation.
Black Swan   A low probability high-impact event with negative consequences
BGS   British Geological Survey (www.bgs.ac.uk)
CCA   Common Component Architecture US DoE funded high-performance computer based
model linking system
CSDMS       Community for Surface Dynamic Modeling Systems (see csdms.colorado.edu)
FCO   UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office (see www.fco.gov.uk)
FRAMES      Framework for Risk Analysis in Multi-Media Environmental Systems see
http://www.epa.gov/athens/research/modeling/3mra.html
Future Proof  System that is flexible to be able to cope with changes either foreseen or
unforeseen.
HPC  High Performance Computing
Integrated modeling  The process of bringing a set of modeling components together to create
a system whose purpose is to understand and or predict how a set of interacting processes will
respond in given circumstances.
Integronster  An integrated modeling  system that is too unwieldy to achieve its aims.
Model  A model engine set up to model a specific situation, e.g. water moving down the Rhine
or Mississippi; the impact of the switch  to biofuel production on global food supplies; the effect of
climate change on the Golden Plover population in the UK .
Modeling component   An element in a modeling system that has functionality.  Can be a
process model, visualization tool, database, etc.
Model engine  The generic description of a process. It is most commonly used to  refer to the
program code in a model which simulates the process, e.g. water flowing down a channel; the
transformation of rainfall into runoff; the behavior of a plant or animal; the response  of farmers to
agricultural policy; etc..
Model integration   The process of enabling modeling components to exchange data.
Model interface  The means by which a model can receive data from or make data available to
other modeling components.
NRCS National Resources Conservation Service (see www.nrcs.usda.gov)
QMS   Object Modeling System: a framework for linking models can be linked see  for example
http://acwi.gov/sos/pubs/2ndJFIC/Contents/M09_Olaf_ExtendedAbstract.pdf
OpenMI       Open Modelling Interface: A European Commission (EC) funded model linking
standard (see www.openmi.org)
USEPA       United States Environmental Protection agency (see www.epa.gov)
USDA        United States Department of Agriculture (see www.usda.gov)
US DoE       United States Department of Energy (see www.energy.gov)
USGS        U.S.  Geological Survey (see www.usgs.gov)
                                         34

-------
35

-------
8 Appendices
                   36

-------
Appendix 1:  Original proposal  to the  FCO

GLOBAL PARTNERSHIPS FUND 2010-11: US SIN BID
Lead Post:
Title of project: Developing UK-US Collaboration on Integrated Environmental Modelling
Activity
Type of activity: Workshop
Attendees: Key players from UK, US and Europe from government agencies, industry and
academia and communities of practice including funding agencies.
We are working on the actual list of invitees but they will be drawn from the following
organisations:
Government
Industry
Academia
Communities of
practice (CoP)
US participants and international
USEPA
USAGE
uses
NOAA
NASA
USDA
NSF
Microsoft
Google
ESRI




NSF funded
Community of
Universities for the
Advancement of
Hydrologic Science Inc
(CUAHSI)
NSF funded
Community for
Sediment Dynamics
Modelling System
(CSDMS)





Open Geospatial
Consortium (OGC)
Integrated
Environmental
Modelling CoP
International
Environmental
Modelling Systems
society
Inter-agency Multi
Media Modelling Group



UK participants
DEFRA
DFID
EA
LWEC partners
Met Office
HR Wallingford
VITALIS
ESRI (UK)
Atkins
Halcrow
NERC (HQ, BGS &
CEH)
EPSRC
ESRC
Virtual Observatory
Consortium

AGI
BSI
DAEM
OpenWeb
InformaTec
                                  37

-------
Government

SEPA
Industry
Willis Re
Arup
Academia


Communities of
practice (CoP)


European and other participants
ECRTD
EEA
INSPIRE
JRC

DHI
Deltares



OpenMI Association




EurAqua

EuroGeo Surveys


Objective
The objectives of the workshop are to:
    •   To bring together key players across US, UK and Europe
    •   Identify potential opportunities created by recent advances in integrated modelling and
       develop their application for reseachers, funding agencies, industry and government
    •   Inclusively and collaboratively present those opportunities in a shared vision for the future
    •   Develop and agree a strategy for achieving the vision
    •   Set out a road map
Background
Assessing the sustainability of proposed policies is challenging because it requires the ability to
understand and predict the response of multiple interacting processes. Models are utilised in
many cases; these effectively encapsulate knowledge and use it for prediction. However, most
models represent a single or small group of processes. The sustainability challenges that face us
now require the prediction of many that interact. These processes will not be confined to a single
discipline but will often straddle many - social, economic and environmental. Consider a relatively
simple question, "What will be the impact of the medical plans for managing a 'flu pandemic on
river water quality and could the plans cause a further health hazard?" It spans medical planning,
the spread of disease through the population, the absorption of drugs by the body and the
hydraulic and chemical processes in sewers, sewage treatment works and rivers. The question
can be nicely addressed using the present stateoftheart of integrated modelling. We have models
of the processes and interface standards allow them to be linked to each other and to datasets.
We can therefore answer the question, though at this stage with a large measure of associated
uncertainty. The answer will also come with the important proviso that we had thought to ask it.

To achieve our present ability to link or integrate models and hence to model and predict more
complex processes,  the first and crucial step was to produce a generic open solution to enabling
models to exchange data. The most recent attempt is that of the NERCIed HarmonIT consortium.
Their solution comprises a standard interface, the OpenMI, which can link relevant models to
each other and to other modelling components. Once adopted, it transforms the ease with which
models can be linked and  run.  It has been widely tested, especially in the US, by government
agencies and major  science programmes.

It is now clear that there are very strong parallels between the evolution of Google Maps and Sat
Nav from paper maps and the path that the development of integrated modelling could follow.
                                           38

-------
However, from paper maps to Google Maps took 40 years. The lesson from that experience is
that a selforganising community of practice and appropriate early funding could greatly shorten
the time it will take for integrated modelling to become operationally useful to science, industry
and policy makers. It is useful to remember here that CIS has grown from nothing to a billion
dollar industry; it doesn't require great imagination to see that the potential earnings from
integrated modelling could be far greater.

The purpose of this workshop is to set out the opportunities in research and in the market and
develop a plan for what must be done to realise those opportunities.

Expected outputs/outcomes
    •   A short statement of the vision
    •   An outline strategy for achieving the vision
    •   A road map
The science aim is to improve our ability to understand the whole earth system

The policy aim is to improve our ability to develop policies that are more likely to be sustainable

The commercial aim is to create a new industry comparable to that of CIS

Stakeholders
Those listed above.
                                           39

-------
 GPF Funding required
                                                           Unit cost         Cost
Item                                 Quantity  Duration        GBP         GBP
Airfares inc. travel to airport                    8               £800.00    £6,400.00
Hotel (Qty people x nights)                     8         7     £150.00    £8,400.00
Room hire                                                              £3,000.00
Tea, coffee, light refreshments                25         5      £10.00    £1,250.00
Secretarial assistance                                                      £500.00
Printing, posters, minor items, etc                                            £250.00
                                                                      £19,800.00
 Roger Moore
 pp. Dr Denis Peach
 Chief Scientist, British Geological Survey
 Natural Environment Research Council
                                           40

-------
 Appendix  2:  Agenda and  running order
 Day 1:       Tuesday December 7, 2010: Laying the groundwork for roadmap
 development
7:30-8:30
Summit Registration
8:30-8:45
Welcome to the Summit
      Matt Larsen
      Associate Director for Water, US Geological Survey


Introduction to the Summit
      Roger Moore, Open Ml Association, UK
      Who are we (demographically)? Why are we here? What will we do? What will
      we produce?
8:45-10:15
Ice-breaker: Introductions of Summit Participants and Participating
Organizations
      Facilitator: Nathan Schwagler
10:15-10:30
Introduction to Integrated Environmental Modeling: Drivers and Philosophy
      Speaker: Pierre Glynn, US Geological Survey
10:30-10:45
Coffee Break
10:45-12:15
The State of the Art and Practice of Integrated Environmental Modeling
      Speaker: Alexey Voinov, iEMSs
            IEM is a discipline whose focus is the science, engineering, and community of
            integrated environmental systems analysis.
                                     41

-------
              Presentation: A summary view of the current IEM landscape including :
                 •   Characteristics and examples of problems requiring IEM
                 •   Characteristics and examples of IEM solutions
                 •   Strengths and weaknesses of current IEM solutions

              Facilitated Discussion: The output from this discussion will be a consensus view of
              the current IEM landscape. This information will form the basis for establishing a vision
              for the future of IEM and communicating with the Managers on  Day 3.
                     Facilitators: David Fortune, Open Ml Association and Nathan Schwagler
                     Rapporteur: Bert Jaegers, Deltares
12:15-1:15
Lunch
1:15-3:00
Where We Are Going? A Vision for the Future of IEM
       Roger Moore, Open Ml Association, UK


The IEM landscape includes four important layers; science, technology, application,
and organization/community. The vision for the future of IEM is presented as a series
of lEM-based activities placed in the context of these layers. For example, within the
science layer a vision statement for IEM may be:
       In education we envision undergraduate and graduate degree programs
       in integrated environmental modeling, integrated environmental
       assessment, and trans-disciplinary environmental decision making.


The vision statements collectively represent a comprehensive view of the roles IEM will
play daytoday in the context of environmental assessment. Each layer/activity may
represent the primary focus of a segment of the IEM community, but no activity should
be designed or implemented without due consideration of all layers (i.e., the larger
context of IEM and environmental assessment).
              Presentation: A strawman vision statement for IEM will be presented. This is a high
              level view of the world of IEM in a 5to10yeartime frame.
                                          42

-------
3:00-3:30
              Facilitated Discussion: The output from this discussion will be a consensus of the
              vision for the future of IEM. This vision statement will be used in subsequent sessions
              as statements of intent that will require us to articulate and prioritize the challenges to
              achieving the vision and to develop specific organization/community-based strategies
              (roadmaps) for navigating the future landscape of IEM.
       Facilitators: Gerry Laniak, USEPA and Nathan Schwagler
       Rapporteur: Andrew Hughes, British Geological Survey


Coffee Break
3:30-5:00      The challenges ahead for IEM
                      Pierre Glynn, US Geological Survey
              To achieve the vision for IEM will require significant advances in each of the major
              layers of IEM (science, technology, application, and organization/community) and in the
              integration across layers.  This session will focus on reaching a common understanding
              of the most important challenges that face IEM. For example, challenges related to
              organization/community may include :
                  •   Establishing cross-organizational research, development, and application
                      strategies
                  •   Facilitating community-wide involvement and collaboration
              It will also be important to describe and document the interdependencies among the
              challenges and the vision statements. This will ensure that as the roadmap is
              developed that challenges are addressed in an integrated holistic context.
              Presentation: A strawman list of the science, technology, application, and
              organizational challenges associated with implementation of the vision will be
              presented.
                                           43

-------
             Facilitated Discussion: The intent of the discussion is to refine the list, define the
             interdependencies, and develop a consensus prioritization. This list will form the input
             to discussions focused on solutions and the IEM roadmap to the future. At this point
             the groundwork has been laid to pursue development of a roadmap for IEM.
                    Facilitators: Gene Whelan, USEPA and Nathan Schwagler
                    Rapporteur: Noha Gaber, USEPA
Day 2:
Wednesday December 8, 2010: Developing the roadmap
8:30-9:00

9:00-10:30










10:30-11:00
11:00-12:30
Welcome to Day 2: Charge to Participants
Facilitator: Nathan Schwagler and Shane Sasnow
Development of an Integrated Modeling Science and Technology Roadmap :
Breakout Segment 1
Breakout 1: Integrated Modeling Science
Facilitators: Thomas Nicholson, NRC and Mary Hill, USGS
Breakout 2: Integrated Modeling Technology
Facilitators: Michiel Blind, Deltares and Peter Gijsbers, Deltares
(USA)
Breakout 3: Integrated Modeling Applications
Facilitators: Andrew Hughes, BGS and John Rees, NERC
Breakout 4: Organization/Social Aspects of Integrated Modeling
Facilitators: Candida West, USEPA and Noha Gaber, USEPA
Coffee Break
Development of an Integrated Modeling Science and Technology Roadmap :
                                        44

-------
             Breakout Segment 2
                    Breakout 1: Integrated Modeling Science
                    Facilitators: Thomas Nicholson, NRC and Mary Hill, USGS


                    Breakout 2: Integrated Modeling Technology
                    Facilitators: Michiel Blind, Deltares and Peter Gijsbers, Deltares
                    (USA)


                    Breakout 3: Integrated Modeling Applications
                    Facilitators: Andrew Hughes, BGS and John Rees, NERC


                    Breakout 4: Organization/Social Aspects of Integrated Modeling
                    Facilitators: Candida West, USEPA and Noha Gaber, USEPA
12:30-1:45
Lunch
1:45-3:15
Development of an Integrated Modeling Science and Technology Roadmap
Breakout Segment 3
       Breakout 1:  Integrated Modeling Science
       Facilitators: Thomas Nicholson, NRC and Mary Hill, USGS


       Breakout 2:  Integrated Modeling Technology
       Facilitators: Michiel Blind, Deltares and Peter Gijsbers, Deltares
       (USA)


       Breakout 3:  Integrated Modeling Applications
       Facilitators: Andrew Hughes, BGS and John Rees, NERC


       Breakout 4:  Organization/Social Aspects of Integrated Modeling
                                        45

-------

3:15-3:45
3:45-5:15










7:00
Facilitators: Candida West, USEPA and Noha Gaber, USEPA
Coffee Break
Development of an Integrated Modeling Science and Technology Roadmap :
Breakout Segment 4
Breakout 1: Integrated Modeling Science
Facilitators: Thomas Nicholson, NRC and Mary Hill, USGS
Breakout 2: Integrated Modeling Technology
Facilitators: Michiel Blind, Deltares and Peter Gijsbers, Deltares
(USA)
Breakout 3: Integrated Modeling Applications
Facilitators: Andrew Hughes, BGS and John Rees, NERC
Breakout 4: Organization/Social Aspects of Integrated Modeling
Facilitators: Candida West, USEPA and Noha Gaber, USEPA
Workshop Dinner
 Day 3:
 Thursday December 9, 2010: Defining the next steps
8:30-9:00
Integrated Management and Modeling -the driving forces



       Speaker: Denis Peach, Chief Scientist, British Geological Survey
9:00-10:30
Presentation of Roadmaps



       Integrated Modeling Science



       Presenters:  Thomas Nicholson, NRC and Mary Hill, USGS







       Integrated Modeling Technology
                                        46

-------






10:30-11:00
11:00-12:30

12:30-1:30
1:30-3:00


3:00-3:30
3:30-5:00



5:00-5:30
Presenters
(USA)
Integrated
Presenters
: Michiel Blind, Deltares and Peter Gijsbers, Deltares

Modeling Applications
: Andrew Hughes, BGS and John Rees, NERC
Organization/Social Aspects of Integrated Modeling
Presenters
: Noha Gaber, USEPA
Coffee Break
Development of Prioritized Project Proposals
Facilitator:
Nathan Schwagler
Lunch
Development of Implementation Plans
Participants will form smaller groups of collaborating organizations to
develop project concept notes
Coffee Break
Making it Happen

Mechanisms for organizational collaboration and support for the community of
practice on integrated environmental modeling
Facilitator:
Wrap-up and Next
Nathan Schwagler
Steps
47

-------
Appendix 3: Workshop participants
Name
Steven Ackleson
Todd Anderson
Daniel Barrie
Luis Bermudez
Michiel Blind
Nicholas Clesceri
Olaf David
Pat Deliman
Michael Ellis
Gary Foley
David Fortune
Noha Gaber
Gary Geller
Kurt Gerdes
Gary Geernaert
Peter Gijsbers
Pierre Glynn
Jan Gregersen
Organization
Department of Defense, Office of Naval Research
Department of Energy
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Open Geospatial Consortium
Deltares
National Science Foundation
US Department of Agriculture
US Army Corps of Engineers
British Geological Survey
US Environmental Protection Agency
OpenMI Association
US Environmental Protection Agency
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Department of Energy
Department of Energy
Deltares (USA)
US Geological Survey
Hydroinform
Country
USA
USA
USA
International
Netherlands
USA
USA
USA
UK
USA
UK
USA
USA
USA
USA
Netherlands
USA
Denmark
Email
steve.ackleson@navy.mil
Todd.Anderson@science.doe.gov
Daniel.Barrie@noaa.gov
lbermudez@opengeospatial.org
Michiel.Blind@deltares.nl
nclescer@nsf.gov
olaf.david@ars.usda.gov
Patrick.N.Deliman@usace.army.mil
mich3@bgs.ac.uk
foley.gary@epa.gov
david.fortune@microdrainage.co.uk
gaber.noha@epa.gov
gary.n.geller@jpl.nasa.gov
Kurt.Gerdes@em.doe.gov
Gerald.Geernaert@science.doe.gov
Peter.Gijsbers@deltares-usa.us
pglynn@usgs.gov
Gregersen@Hydrolnform.com
                              48

-------
Angelica Guiterrez-Magness
Quillon Harpham
Mary Hill
Andrew Hughes
Warren Isom
Bert Jagers
Billy Johnson
Robert Kennedy
Holger Kessler
Rob Knapen
Gerry Laniak
Matt Larsen
David Maidment
Justin Marble
Michael McDermott
Roger Moore
Stefano Nativi
Michael Natschke
Thomas Nicholson
J0rgen Bo Nielsen
Gabriel Olchin
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
HR Wallingford
US Geological Survey
British Geological Survey
Willis Re:
Delta res
US Army Corps of Engineers
US Army Corps of Engineers
British Geological Survey
Alterra
US Environmental Protection Agency
US Geological Survey
Consortium for the Advancement of Hydrological
Sciences, Inc
Department of Energy
US Geological Survey
OpenMI Association
National Research Council
Kisters
Nuclear Regulatory Commission
DHI
US Environmental Protection Agency
USA
UK
USA
UK
USA
Netherlands
USA
USA
UK
Netherlands
USA
USA
USA
USA
USA
UK
Italy
Germany
USA
Denmark
USA
Angelica.Gutierrez@noaa.gov
q.harpham@hrwallingford.co.uk
mchill@usgs.gov
aghug@bgs.ac.uk
warren.isom@willis.com
bert.jagers@deltares.nl
Billy.E.Johnson@usace.army.mil
Robert.H.Kennedy@usace.army.mil
hke@bgs.ac.uk
Rob.Knapen@wur.nl
laniak.gerry@epa.gov
mclarsen@usgs.gov
maidment@mail.utexas.edu
Justin.Marble@em.doe.gov
mmcdermo@usgs.gov
rvm@ceh.ac.uk
nativi@imaa.cnr.it
michael.natschke@kisters.de
Thomas.Nicholson@nrc.gov
jni@dhigroup.com
olchin.gabriel@epa.gov
49

-------
William Ott
Denis Peach
Scott Peckham
Christa Peters-Lidard
Tom Pierce
Sim Reaney
John Rees
Onno Roosenschoon
Mattia Santoro
Linda Sheldon
Simon Smart
Todd Swannack
Stanislav Vanecek
Roland Viger
Alexey Voinov
Candida West
Jim Westervelt
Gene Whelan
Ming Zhu
Nuclear Regulatory Commission
British Geological Survey
Community Surface Dynamics Modeling System
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
US Environmental Protection Agency
Durham University
Natural Environmental Research Council/ British
Geological Survey
Alterra
National Research Council
US Environmental Protection Agency
Centre for Ecology and Hydrology
US Army Corps of Engineers
DHI
US Geological Survey
International Environmental Modelling and Software
Society
US Environmental Protection Agency
US Army Corps of Engineers
US Environmental Protection Agency
Department of Energy
USA
UK
USA
USA
USA
UK
UK
Netherlands
Italy
USA
UK
USA
Czech
Republic
USA
International
USA
USA
USA
USA
William.Ott@nrc.gov
dwpe@bgs.ac.uk
scott.peckham@colorado.edu
christa.d.peters-lidard@nasa.gov
pierce.tom@epa.gov
sim.reaney@durham.ac.uk
jgre@bgs.ac.uk
Onno.Roosenschoon@wur.nl
santoro@imaa.cnr.it
sheldon.linda@epa.gov
ssma@ceh.ac.uk
Todd.M.Swannack@usace.army.mil
S.Vanecek@dhi.cz
rviger@usgs.gov
voinov@itc.nl
west.candida@epa.gov
James.D.Westervelt@usace.army.mil
whelan.gene@epa.gov
ming.zhu@em.doe.gov
50

-------
Project Title
Open Standards for Model
Interoperability







Sensitivity Analysis/
Uncertainty: Data to
Predictions






Community of Practice on
Integrated Environmental
Modeling Organizational
Structure









Lead(s)
Alexey Voinov







Mary Hill






Noha Gaber









Team Members
Roland Viger
Rob Knapen
David Fortune
Michiel Blind
Jorgen Bo Nielsen
Gabriel Olchin
Quillon Harpham
USEPA TBC
Onno Roosenschoon
Simon Smart
Angelica Gutierrez-
Magness
Christa Peters-Lidard
Quillon Harpham (as a link
to other groups at HR
Wallingford)
Sim Reaney
Mike Ellis (addressing
similar things at BGS)
Gabriel Olchin
Peter Gijsbers (as a link to
Deltares)
Candida West
Denis Peach
Andrew Hughes
John Rees
Michiel Blind
Scott Peckham
Roger Moore
Alexey Voinov
Mike Ellis
Onno Roosenschoon
Roland Viger
Gerry Laniak
New/Ongoing
New







New






New









51

-------
                                             Jorgen Bo Nielsen
Environmental Virtual
Observatory Pilot (EVO-P)
Sim Reaney
Quillon Harpham
Roland Viger
Jan Gregersen
Michiel Blind (as a link to
Delatres: Gerben  Deboer)
Ongoing
Ecomodeling for/ by Ecologists
Todd Swannack
Jim Westervelt
Alexey Voinov
Ongoing
Indicators for Water, Land-Use
and Species
Gary Geller
Simon Smart
Quillon Harpham
Brenda Rashleigh
Roland Viger
Stefano Nativi
Sim Reaney
Bert Jaegers (on behalf of
colleagues)
Onno Roosenschoon (on
behalf of colleagues)
Almost new
OGC Web Services IEM Pilot
Project
Luis Bermudez
Onno Roosenschoon
Stanislav Vanecek
Peter Gijsbers
Roger Moore
Roland Viger
Quillon Harpham
Jan Gregersen
Holger Kessler (connect to
BGS team)
Scott Peckham
Roger Moore
New
Benchmarking IEM
Methodologies and
Technologies
                Peter Gijsbers
                Olaf David
                Jorgen Bo Nielsen
                Jan Gregersen
                Roland Viger
                Gene Whelan
                David Fortune
                Bert Jaegers
                Scott Peckham
                          New
                                          52

-------



Java OpenMI Collaboration
Development of a Dynamic
Environmental Sensitivity to
Climate Change Model
Chernobyl Cooling Pond




Linkage of Watershed,
Hydrodynamic and Large Open
Water Models
Data Access Tools



British Geological Survey Open
Environmental Modelling
Platform
Education Curriculum








Case-study analyses of
requirements for IEM success





Rob Knapen
Mike Ellis
Tom Nicholson




Pat Deliman
Kurt Wolfe
Rajbir Parmar
Andrew Hughes
John Rees
Holger Kessler
Gene Whelan
Olaf David
Scott Peckham






Pierre Glynn


Roger Moore
Rob Knapen
Quillon Harpham
Holger Kessler (as a link to
BGS Java Developers)
Candida West
Bert Jaegers
Boris Faybishenko
Billy Johnson
Sim Reaney
Quillon Harpham
Bert Jaegers
David Fortune
Bert Jaegers
Quillon Harpham
Jorgen Bo Nielsen
Sim Reaney
Jan Gregersen

Rob Knapen
Jan Gregersen
Bert Jaegers (Link to geo
colleagues at Deltares and
alternative application of
technology goals)
Billy Johnson
Gabriel Olchin
Tom Nicholson
Andrew Hughes
Sim Reaney
Holger Kessler
Todd Swannack
Quillon Harpham
Alexey Voinov
Warren Isom
Peter Gijsbers
Bob Kennedy
Michiel Blind



New
Almost New
Developing





New



Ongoing
New








New


53

-------
    Jorgen Bo Nielsen

    Fluid Earth & Quillon
    Harpham
54

-------

United States
Environmental Protection
Agency

-------