&EPA
UniM States
Enviraimerilfll PiutmBmi
Agancy
Ozone Health Risk Assessment
for Selected Urban Areas
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EPA 452/R-07-009
July 2007
Ozone Health Risk Assessment
For Selected Urban Areas
By:
Ellen Post
Andreas Maier
Hardee Mahoney
Abt Associates, Inc.
Bethesda, MD
Prepared for:
Nancy Riley, Project Officer
Harvey Richmond, Work Assignment Manager
Health and Environmental Impacts Division
Contract No. 68-D-03-002
Work Assignment 3-39 and 4-56
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
Health and Environmental Impacts Division
Ambient Standards Group
Research Triangle Park, NC
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DISCLAIMER
This report is being furnished to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
(EPA) by Abt Associates Inc. in partial fulfillment of Contract No. 68-D-03-002, Work
Assignments 3-39 and 4-56. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations
are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the EPA or Abt
Associates. Earlier drafts of this document were formally reviewed by the Clean Air
Scientific Advisory Committee (CASAC) and made available for public comment. This
document has been informed by the expert advice and comments received from the
CASAC, as well as public comments submitted by several organizations, including
environmental groups, industrial groups and companies, and State air pollution
organizations. Any questions concerning this document should be addressed to Harvey
Richmond, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and
Standards, C504-06, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711 (email:
richmond.harvey@epa.gov).
Any analyses, interpretations, or conclusions presented in this report based on
hospitalization and mortality data obtained from outside sources, are credited to the
authors and not the institutions providing the raw data. Furthermore, Abt Associates
expressly understands that the Michigan Health and Hospital Association has not
performed an analysis of the hospitalization data obtained or warranted the accuracy of
this information and, therefore, it cannot be held responsible in any manner for the
outcome.
Abt Associates Inc. i December 2006
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PREFACE TO JULY 2007 EDITION
This July 2007 edition contains revised lung function risk estimates based on revised
exposure estimates resulting from technical corrections to the exposure model made
subsequent to the January 2007 editions of the Staff Paper and accompanying Technical
Support Document (TSD). As noted in chapters 4 and 5 of the July 2007 edition of the
Staff Paper, a small error was detected in the exposure model in January 2007 that
resulted in small increases in the exposure estimates. This error has been corrected and
the model runs have been redone, generally resulting in small increases in the exposure
estimates. The revised lung function risk estimates, based on the corrected exposure
estimates, are generally slightly higher than the original estimates presented in the
January 2007 edition of the Staff Paper and accompanying TSD. The corrected lung
function risk estimates for all children and for asthmatic children are presented in this
edition of the TSD in Chapter 3 and associated appendices as well as in the July 2007
edition of the Staff Paper. Due to time constraints, however, the lung function risk
estimates for active children, presented in Appendix C of the TSD, were not revised.
Also due to time constraints, the date on the footer was not updated to July 2007.
Sections 1, 2, and 4 of this edition of the TSD and the results in the Appendices for health
endpoints other than lung function remain unchanged with the exception of some minor
corrections and updates to several references.
Abt Associates Inc. ii December 2006
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Table of Contents
1 INTRODUCTION 1-1
2 PRELIMINARY CONSIDERATIONS 2-1
2.1 The Broad Empirical Basis for a Relationship Between Os and Adverse
Health Effects 2-1
2.2 Basic Structure of the Risk Assessment 2-2
2.3 Air Quality Considerations 2-4
3 ASSESSMENT OF RISK BASED ON CONTROLLED HUMAN
EXPOSURE STUDIES 3-1
3.1 Methods 3-1
3.1.1 Selection of health endpoints 3-1
3.1.2 Development of exposure-response functions 3-3
3.1.3 Approach to calculating risk estimates 3-6
3.1.4 Selection of urban areas 3-9
3.1.5 Addressing variability and uncertainty 3-10
3.2 Results 3-18
3.2.1 Assessment of lung function decrement associated with exposure
to "as is" 63 concentrations in excess of policy relevant
background levels 3-18
3.2.1.1 Results for all school age children 3-18
3.2.1.2 Results for asthmatic school age children 3-26
3.2.2 Assessment of lung function decrement associated with exposure
to Os concentrations that just meet the current and alternative daily
maximum 8-hour standards 3-29
3.2.2.1 Results for all locations for the current standard and the
original set of seven alternative standards, based on 2002 and
2004 air quality data 3-29
3.2.2.2 Results for five locations for the current standard and two
alternative standards, based on 2002, 2003, and 2004 air
quality data 3-52
3.2.2.2.1 Results for all school age children 3-52
3.2.2.2.2 Results for asthmatic school age children 3-60
3.3 Sensitivity Analyses 3-68
3.3.1 PRB sensitivity analysis 3-68
3.3.2 Exposure-response functional form sensitivity analysis 3-76
4 ASSESSMENT OF RISK BASED ON EPIDEMIOLOGICAL STUDIES 4-1
4.1 Methods 4-1
4.1.1 General approach 4-1
4.1.2 Air quality considerations 4-5
4.1.3 Selection of health endpoints 4-7
4.1.4 Selection of urban areas 4-7
Abt Associates Inc. iii December 2006
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4.1.5 Selection of epidemiological studies 4-8
4.1.6 A summary of selected health endpoints, urban areas and studies 4-9
4.1.7 Selection of concentration-response functions 4-11
4.1.8 Baseline health effects incidence considerations 4-22
4.1.9 Addressing uncertainty and variability 4-26
4.1.9.1 Concentration-response functions 4-31
4.1.9.1.1 Uncertainty associated with the appropriate model form 4-32
4.1.9.1.2 Uncertainty associated with the estimated concentration-
response functions in the study locations 4-32
4.1.9.1.3 Applicability of concentration-response functions in different
locations 4-35
4.1.9.1.4 Extrapolation beyond observed air quality levels 4-36
4.1.9.2 The air quality data 4-36
4.1.9.2.1 Adequacy of O3air quality data 4-36
4.1.9.2.2 Estimation of PRB O3 concentrations 4-37
4.1.9.2.3 Simulation of reductions in O3 concentrations to just meet the
current or an alternative standard 4-38
4.1.9.3 Baseline health effects incidence rates 4-38
4.1.9.3.1 Quality of incidence data 4-38
4.1.9.3.2 Lack of daily health effects incidence rates 4-40
4.2 Results 4-40
4.2.1 Assessment of the health risks associated with "as is" O3
concentrations in excess of policy relevant background levels 4-41
4.2.1.1 Assessment of the health risks associated with 2004 and 2002
"as is" O3 concentrations in excess of policy relevant
background levels 4-41
4.2.1.2 Assessment of the mortality risks associated with 2003 "as is"
O3 concentrations in excess of policy relevant background
levels in five urban areas 4-60
4.2.2 Assessment of the reduced health risks associated with O3
concentrations that just meet the current and alternative 8-hour
standards 4-63
4.2.2.1 Results for all locations for the current standard and the
original set of seven standards, based on 2002 and 2004 air
quality data 4-63
4.2.2.2 Results for five locations for the current standard and two
alternative standards, based on 2002, 2003, and 2004 air
quality data 4-102
4.3 Sensitivity Analyses 4-113
5 REFERENCES 5-1
Abt Associates Inc. iv December 2006
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List of Tables
Table 3-1. Study-Specific Ozone Exposure-Response Data for Lung Function
Decrements 3-4
Table 3-2. Urban Areas Used in the Controlled Human Studies-Portion of the O3
Risk Assessment and Their O3 Seasons 3-10
Table 3-3. Population Coverage of Modeled Areas 3-11
Table 3-4. Estimated Number and Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function
Response Associated with Exposure to "As Is" 63 Concentrations Over
Background O3 Concentrations Among All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in
Moderate Exercise, for Location-Specific O3 Seasons: 2004 O3
Concentrations 3-19
Table 3-5. Estimated Number and Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function
Response Associated with Exposure to "As Is" O3 Concentrations Over
Background O3 Concentrations Among All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in
Moderate Exercise, for Location-Specific O3 Seasons: 2002 O3
Concentrations 3-20
Table 3-6. Number and Percent of All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate
Exercise Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response
Associated with Exposure to "As Is" O3 Concentrations Over Background O3
Concentrations, for Location-Specific O3 Seasons: 2004 O3 Concentrations ..3-21
Table 3-7. Number and Percent of All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate
Exercise Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response
Associated with Exposure to "As Is" O3 Concentrations Over Background O3
Concentrations, for Location-Specific O3 Seasons: 2002 O3 Concentrations .. 3-22
Table 3-8. Estimated Number and Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function
Response (Decrease in FEVi>=15%) Associated with Exposure to "As Is" O3
Concentrations Over Background O3 Concentrations Among All Children
(Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion, for Location-Specific O3
Seasons: 2002, 2003, and 2004 3-23
Table 3-9. Number and Percent of All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate
Exertion Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response
(Decrease in FEVi>=15%) Associated with Exposure to "As Is" O3
Concentrations Over Background O3 Concentrations, for Location-Specific
O3 Seasons: 2002, 2003, and 2004 3-24
Table 3-10. Estimated Number and Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function
Response (Decrease in FEVi>=10%) Associated with Exposure to "As Is" O3
Concentrations Over Background O3 Concentrations Among Asthmatic
Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion, for Location-Specific
O3 Seasons: 2002, 2003, and 2004 3-27
Table 3-11. Number and Percent of Asthmatic Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in
Moderate Exertion Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function
Response (Decrease in FEVi>=10%) Associated with Exposure to "As Is" O3
Concentrations Over Background O3 Concentrations, for Location-Specific
O3 Seasons: 2002, 2003, 2004 3-28
Abt Associates Inc. v December 2006
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Table 3-12. Estimated Number of Occurrences of Lung Function Response
Associated with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current
and Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards Among All Children
(Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exercise, for Location-Specific O3
Seasons: Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations 3-31
Table 3-13. Estimated Number of Occurrences of Lung Function Response
Associated with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current
and Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards Among All Children
(Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exercise, for Location-Specific 63
Seasons: Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations 3-33
Table 3-14. Estimated Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function Response
Associated with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current
and Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards Among All Children
(Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exercise, for Location-Specific O3
Seasons: Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations 3-35
Table 3-15. Estimated Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function Response
Associated with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current
and Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards Among All Children
(Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exercise, for Location-Specific O3
Seasons: Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations 3-37
Table 3-16. Number of All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exercise
Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response Associated
with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and
Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for Location-Specific O3
Seasons: Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations 3-39
Table 3-17. Number of All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exercise
Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response Associated
with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and
Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for Location-Specific O3
Seasons: Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations 3-41
Table 3-18. Percent of All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exercise
Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response Associated
with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and
Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for Location-Specific O3
Seasons: Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations 3-43
Table 3-19. Percent of All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exercise
Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response Associated
with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and
Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for Location-Specific O3
Seasons: Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations 3-45
Table 3-20. Estimated Number of Occurrences of Lung Function Response (Change
in FEVi>=15%) Associated with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just
Meet the Current and Two Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards
Among All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion, for Five
Location-Specific O3 Seasons, Based on 2002, 2003, and 2004 O3
Concentrations 3-53
Abt Associates Inc. vi December 2006
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Table 3-21. Estimated Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function Response (Change
in FEVi>=15%) Associated with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just
Meet the Current and Two Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards
Among All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion, for Five
Location-Specific O3 Seasons, Based on 2002, 2003, and 2004 O3
Concentrations 3-54
Table 3-22. Number of All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion
Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response (Change in
FEVi>=15%) Associated with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet
the Current and Two Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for
Location-Specific O3 Seasons, Based on 2002, 2003, and 2004 O3
Concentrations 3-55
Table 3-23. Percent of All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion
Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response (Change in
FEVi>=15%) Associated with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet
the Current and Two Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for
Location-Specific O3 Seasons, Based on 2002, 2003, and 2004 O3
Concentrations 3-56
Table 3-24. Estimated Number of Occurrences of Lung Function Response (Change
in FEVi>=10%) Associated with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just
Meet the Current and Two Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards
Among Asthmatic Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion, for
Five Location-Specific O3 Seasons, Based on 2002, 2003, and 2004 O3
Concentrations 3-61
Table 3-25. Estimated Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function Response (Change
in FEVi>=10%) Associated with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just
Meet the Current and Two Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards
Among Asthmatic Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion, for
Five Location-Specific O3 Seasons, Based on 2002, 2003, and 2004 O3
Concentrations 3-62
Table 3-26. Number of Asthmatic Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate
Exertion Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response
(Change in FEVi>=10%) Associated with Exposure to O3 Concentrations
That Just Meet the Current and Two Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour
Standards, for Five Location-Specific O3 Seasons, Based on 2002, 2003, and
2004 O3 Concentrations 3-63
Table 3-27. Percent of Asthmatic Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate
Exertion Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response
(Change in FEVi>=10%) Associated with Exposure to O3 Concentrations
That Just Meet the Current and Two Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour
Standards, for Five Location-Specific O3 Seasons, Based on 2002, 2003, and
2004 O3 Concentrations 3-64
Table 3-28. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy
Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated Number of Occurrences of Lung
Function Response (Change in FEVi>=15%) Among All Children (Age 5-
18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion Associated with Exposure to O3
Abt Associates Inc. vii December 2006
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Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily Maximum
8-Hour Standards, for Location-Specific Os Seasons 3-70
Table 3-29. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy
Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated Number of All Children (Ages 5-
18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion Estimated to Experience At Least One
Lung Function Response (Change in FEVi>=15%) Associated with Exposure
to Os Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily
Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for Location-Specific O3 Seasons 3-71
Table 3-30. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy
Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated Percent of All Children (Ages 5-
18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion Estimated to Experience At Least One
Lung Function Response (Change in FEVi>=15%) Associated with Exposure
to Os Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily
Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for Location-Specific Os Seasons 3-72
Table 3-31. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy
Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated Number of Asthmatic Children
(Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion Estimated to Experience At Least
One Lung Function Response (Change in FEVi>=10%) Associated with
Exposure to Os Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative
Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for Location-Specific O3 Seasons 3-73
Table 3-32. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy
Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated Number of Asthmatic Children
(Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion Estimated to Experience At Least
One Lung Function Response (Change in FEVi>=10%) Associated with
Exposure to Os Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative
Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for Location-Specific Os Seasons 3-74
Table 3-33. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy
Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated Percent of Asthmatic Children
(Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion Estimated to Experience At Least
One Lung Function Response (Change in FEVi>=10%) Associated with
Exposure to Os Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative
Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for Location-Specific Os Seasons 3-75
Table 4-1. Locations and Health Endpoints Included in the Os Risk Assessment
Based on Epidemiological Studies 4-9
Table 4-2. Summary of Locations, Concentration-Response Functions, Months
Included and Counties Included 4-14
Table 4-3. Relevant Population Sizes for Os Risk Assessment Locations 4-23
Table 4-4. Baseline Mortality Rates (per 100,000 Population) for 2002 for O3 Risk
Assessment Locations 4-24
Table 4-5. ICD-9 Codes used in Epidemiological Studies and Corresponding ICD-
10 Codes 4-25
Table 4-6. Baseline Rates for Hospital Admissions Used in the Os Risk Assessment. 4-26
Table 4-7. Key Uncertainties in the Risk Assessment 4-29
Table 4-8. Estimated Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with "As Is" Os
Concentrations Above Background: April - September, 2004 4-50
Abt Associates Inc. viii December 2006
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Table 4-9. Estimated Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with "As Is" 63
Concentrations Above Background: April - September, 2002 4-52
Table 4-10. Estimated Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with "As Is" Os
Concentrations Above Background: April - September, 2004 4-54
Table 4-11. Estimated Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with "As Is" 63
Concentrations Above Background: April - September, 2002 4-55
Table 4-12. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" Os Concentrations
Above Background: New York, NY, April - September, 2004 4-56
Table 4-13. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" 63 Concentrations
Above Background: New York, NY, April - September, 2002 4-57
Table 4-14. Estimated Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with "As Is" Os
Concentrations: April - September, 2003 4-61
Table 4-15. Estimated Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with "As Is" 63
Concentrations: April - September, 2003 4-62
Table 4-16. Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with Os
Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily
Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on 2004 63 Concentrations...4-76
Table 4-17. Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant
Population Associated with Os Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and
Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on
2004 O3 Concentrations 4-78
Table 4-18. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality
Associated with Os Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative
8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on 2004 O3
Concentrations 4-80
Table 4-19. Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with Os
Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily
Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on 2002 63 Concentrations...4-82
Table 4-20. Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant
Population Associated with Os Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and
Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on
2002 O3 Concentrations 4-84
Table 4-21. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality
Associated with Os Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative
8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on 2002 Os
Concentrations 4-86
Table 4-22. Estimated Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with 63
Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily
Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on 2004 Os Concentrations..4-88
Table 4-23. Estimated Cardiorespiratory Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population
Associated with 63 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative
8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on 2004 Os
Concentrations 4-89
Table 4-24. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Cardiorespiratory Mortality
Associated with 63 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative
Abt Associates Inc. ix December 2006
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8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on 2004 O3
Concentrations 4-90
Table 4-25. Estimated Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with O3
Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily
Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on 2002 O3 Concentrations..4-91
Table 4-26. Estimated Cardiorespiratory Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population
Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative
8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on 2002 O3
Concentrations 4-92
Table 4-27. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Cardiorespiratory Mortality
Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative
8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on 2002 O3
Concentrations 4-93
Table 4-28. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations
that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum
Standards: New York, NY, April - September, Based on 2004 O3
Concentrations 4-94
Table 4-29. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population
Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative
8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: New York, NY, April - September,
Based on 2004 O3 Concentrations 4-95
Table 4-30. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with
O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily
Maximum Standards: New York, NY, April - September, Based on 2004 O3
Concentrations 4-96
Table 4-31. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations
that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum
Standards: New York, NY, April - September, Based on 2002 O3
Concentrations 4-97
Table 4-32. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population
Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative
8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: New York, NY, April - September,
Based on 2002 O3 Concentrations 4-98
Table 4-33. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with
O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily
Maximum Standards: New York, NY, April - September, Based on 2002 O3
Concentrations 4-99
Table 4-34. Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3
Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Two Alternative 8-Hour Daily
Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3
Concentrations 4-104
Table 4-35. Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant
Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and
Two Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September,
Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations 4-105
Abt Associates Inc. x December 2006
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Table 4-36. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality
Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Two
Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on
Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations 4-106
Table 4-37. Estimated Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with O3
Concentrations that Just Meet the Current andTwo Alternative 8-Hour Daily
Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3
Concentrations 4-107
Table 4-38. Estimated Cardiorespiratory Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population
Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Two
Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on
Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations 4-108
Table 4-39. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Cardiorespiratory Mortality
Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Two
Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on
Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations 4-109
Table 4-40. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy
Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of
Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: April -
September, 2004 4-114
Table 4-41. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy
Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of
Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: April -
September, 2002 4-115
Table 4-42. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy
Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of
Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet
the Current Standard (0.084 ppm, 4th Daily Maximum): April - September,
2004 4-116
Table 4-43. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy
Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of
Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet
the Current Standard (0.084 ppm, 4th Daily Maximum): April - September,
2002 4-117
Table 4-44. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy
Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of
Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet
An Alternative Standard of 0.074 ppm, 4th Daily Maximum: April -
September, 2004 4-118
Table 4-45. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy
Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of
Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet
An Alternative Standard of 0.074 ppm, 4th Daily Maximum: April -
September, 2002 4-119
Table 4-46. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy
Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of
Abt Associates Inc. xi December 2006
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Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with 63 Concentrations that Just Meet
An Alternative Standard of 0.064 ppm, 4th Daily Maximum: April -
September, 2004 4-120
Table 4-47. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy
Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of
Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with Os Concentrations that Just Meet
An Alternative Standard of 0.064 ppm, 4th Daily Maximum: April -
September, 2002 4-121
Table 4-48. Sensitivity Analysis: Estimated Non-Accidental Mortality Associated
with "As Is" Os Concentrations Down to Policy Relevant Background (PRB)
Versus 0 ppb: April - September, 2004 4-122
Table 4-49. Sensitivity Analysis: Estimated Non-Accidental Mortality Associated
with "As Is" Os Concentrations Down to Policy Relevant Background (PRB)
Versus 0 ppb: April - September, 2002 4-124
Abt Associates Inc. xii December 2006
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List of Figures
Figure 3-1. Components of Ozone Health Risk Assessment Based on Controlled
Human Exposure Studies 3-2
Figure 3-2. Bayesian-Estimated (90% Logistic and 10% Linear) Median Exposure-
Response Functions: Change in FEVi > 10%, 15%, and 20% 3-6
Figure 3-3. a, b, c. Probabilistic Exposure-Response Relationships for FEVi
Decrement > 10%, > 15%, and > 20% for 8-Hour Exposures Under
Moderate Exertion 3-7
Figure 3-4. Probabilistic Exposure-Response Relationships for FEVi Decrement >
10%, > 15%, and > 20% for 8-Hour Exposures Under Moderate Exertion:
Comparison of 90% Logistic/10% Linear (Hockeystick) Split and 80%
Logistic/20% Linear (Hockeystick) Split in Assumed Relationship Between
Exposure and Response 3-13
Figure 3-5. Probabilistic Exposure-Response Relationships for FEVi Decrement >
10%, > 15%, and > 20% for 8-Hour Exposures Under Moderate Exertion:
Comparison of 90% Logistic/10% Linear (Hockeystick) Split and 50%
Logistic/50% Linear (Hockeystick) Split in Assumed Relationship Between
Exposure and Response 3-14
Figure 3-6. Median Exposure-Response Functions Using Three Different
Combinations of Logistic and Linear (Hockeystick) Models 3-15
Figure 3-7. Percent Reductions in Aggregate Numbers (Across All Locations) of
Occurrences of Lung Function Response Among All School Age Children
when Os Concentrations are Reduced from Those Just Meeting the Current
Standard to Those that Would Just Meet Each Alternative Standard, for Each
of the Three Definitions of Response 3-47
Figure 3-8. Percent Reductions of Occurrences of Decrement in FEVi >15% Among
All School Age Children when Os Concentrations are Reduced from Those
Just Meeting the Current Standard to Those that Would Just Meet Each
Alternative Standard, Separately for Each Location 3-48
Figure 3-9. Percent Reductions in Aggregate Numbers (Across All Locations) of All
School Age Children Experiencing at Least One Occurrence of Lung
Function Response when Os Concentrations are Reduced from Those Just
Meeting the Current Standard to Those that Would Just Meet Each
Alternative Standard, for Each of the Three Definitions of Response 3-49
Figure 3-10. Percent Reductions in Numbers of All School Age Children
Experiencing at Least One Decrement in FEVi >15% when Os
Concentrations are Reduced from Those Just Meeting the Current Standard to
Those that Would Just Meet Each Alternative Standard, Separately for Each
Location 3-50
Figure 3-11. Estimated Percent Reductions From the Current Standard to Two
Alternative Standards in All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate
Exertion Experiencing at Least One Os-Related Decrement in FEVi>15%,
Separately for Each of Five Locations 3-57
Figure 3-12. Estimated Percent Reductions From the Current Standard to Two
Alternative Standards in Asthmatic Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in
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Moderate Exertion Experiencing at Least One O3-Related Decrement in
FEVi>10%, Separately for Each of Five Locations 3-65
Figure 3-13. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Exposure-
Response Function on Estimated Percent Changes in Numbers of All
Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion Experiencing at Least
One Decrement in FEVi >15% when O3 Concentrations are Reduced from
Those Just Meeting the Current Standard to Those that Would Just Meet
Each of Several Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for Five
Location-Specific O3 Seasons 3-78
Figure 3-14. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Exposure-
Response Function on Estimated Percent Changes in Numbers of Asthmatic
Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion Experiencing at Least
One Decrement in FEVi >10% when O3 Concentrations are Reduced from
Those Just Meeting the Current Standard to Those that Would Just Meet
Each of Several Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for Five
Location-Specific O3 Seasons 3-80
Figure 4-1. Major Components of Ozone Health Risk Assessment Based on
Epidemiology Studies 4-3
Figure 4-2. Estimated Annual Percent of (Non-Accidental) Mortality Associated
with Short-Term Exposure to O3 Above Background: Single-Pollutant,
Single-City Models (April - September) 4-43
Figure 4-3. Estimated Annual Percent of Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated
with Short-Term Exposure to O3 Above Background (April - September):
Single-Pollutant vs. Multi-Pollutant Models [Huang et al. (2004), additional
pollutants, from left to right: none, CO, NO2, PMio, SO2] 4-44
Figure 4-4. Estimated Annual Percent of (Non-Accidental) Mortality Associated
with Short-Term Exposure to O3 Above Background (April - September):
Single-City Model (left bar) vs. Multi-City Model (right bar) 4-45
Figure 4-5. Estimated Annual Percent of Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated
with Short-Term Exposure to O3 Above Background (April - September):
Single-City Model (left bar) vs. Multi-City Model (right bar) - Based on
Huang etal. (2004) 4-46
Figure 4-6. Estimated Annual Percent of (Unscheduled) Hospital Admissions for
Pneumonia in Detroit Associated with Short-Term Exposure to O3 Above
Background (April - September): Different Lag Models - Based on Ito
(2003) [bars from left to right are 0-day, 1-day, 2-day, and 3-day lag models] 4-47
Figure 4-7. Estimated Annual Percent of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with
Short-Term Exposure to "As Is" O3 Above Background for the Period April -
September (Based on Bell et al., 2004 - 95 U.S. Cities) - Total and
Contribution of 24-Hour O3 Ranges 4-48
Figure 4-8. Estimated Annual Percent of Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated
with Short-Term Exposure to "As Is" O3 Above Background for the Period
April - September (Based on Huang et al., 2004 - 19 U.S. Cities) - Total and
Contribution of 24-Hour O3 Ranges 4-49
Figure 4-9. Estimated Annual Percent of (Non-Accidental) Mortality Associated
with Short-Term Exposure to O3 Above Background When the Current 8-
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Hour Standard is Just Met: Single-Pollutant, Single-City Models (April -
September) 4-65
Figure 4-10. Estimated Annual Percent of Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated
with Short-Term Exposure to Oj Above Background When the Current 8-
Hour Standard is Just Met (April - September): Single-Pollutant vs. Multi-
Pollutant Models [Huang et al. (2004), additional pollutants, from left to
right: none, CO, NO2, PMio, SO2] 4-66
Figure 4-11. Estimated Annual Percent of (Non-Accidental) Mortality Associated
with Short-Term Exposure to Os Above Background When the Current 8-
Hour Standard is Just Met (April - September): Single-City Model (left bar)
vs. Multi-City Model (right bar) 4-67
Figure 4-12. Estimated Annual Percent of Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated
with Short-Term Exposure to Os Above Background When the Current 8-
Hour Standard is Just Met (April - September): Single-City Model (left bar)
vs. Multi-City Model (right bar) - Based on Huang et al. (2004) 4-68
Figure 4-13. Estimated Annual Percent of (Unscheduled) Hospital Admissions for
Pneumonia in Detroit Associated with Short-Term Exposure to Os Above
Background When the Current 8-Hour Standard is Just Met (April -
September): Different Lag Models - Based on Ito (2003) [bars from left to
right are 0-day, 1-day, 2-day, and 3-day lag models] 4-69
Figure 4-14. Estimated Annual Percent of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated
with Short-Term Exposure to Os Above Policy Relevant Background for the
Period April - September When the Current 8-Hour Standard is Just Met
(Based on Bell et al., 2004 - 95 U.S. Cities) - Total and Contribution of 24-
Hour O3 Ranges 4-70
Figure 4-15. Estimated Annual Percent of Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated
with Short-Term Exposure to Os Above Policy Relevant Background for the
Period April - September When the Current 8-Hour Standard is Just Met
(Based on Huang et al., 2004 - 19 U.S. Cities) - Total and Contribution of
24-Hour O3 Ranges 4-71
Figure 4-16. Estimated Percent Reductions From the Current Standard to
Alternative Standards in (VRelated Non-Accidental Mortality, Separately
for Each Location (Based on Bell etal., 2004--95 U.S. Cities) 4-72
Figure 4-17. Estimated Percent Reductions From the Current Standard to
Alternative Standards in Os-Related Cardiorespiratory Mortality, Separately
for Each Location (Based on Huang et al., 2004 - 19 U.S. Cities) 4-74
Figure 4-18. Estimated Percent Reductions From the Current Standard to Two
Alternative Standards in Os-Related Non-Accidental Mortality, Separately
for Each Location (Based on Bell etal., 2004--95 U.S. Cities) 4-110
Figure 4-19. Sensitivity Analysis of Estimated Percent Change in Os-Related Non-
Accidental Mortality (Using Bell et al., 2004 - 95 U.S. Cities) From the
Current Standard to Alternative 8-hr Standards and a Recent Year of Air
Quality, Using Base Case, Higher, and Lower PRB Estimates 4-126
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Ozone Health Risk Assessment for Selected Urban Areas
1 INTRODUCTION
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is presently conducting a
review of the national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) for ozone (Os). Sections
108 and 109 of the Clean Air Act (Act) govern the establishment and periodic review of
the NAAQS. These standards are established for pollutants that may reasonably be
anticipated to endanger public health and welfare, and whose presence in the ambient air
results from numerous or diverse mobile or stationary sources. The NAAQS are to be
based on air quality criteria, which are to accurately reflect the latest scientific knowledge
useful in indicating the kind and extent of identifiable effects on public health or welfare
that may be expected from the presence of the pollutant in ambient air. The EPA
Administrator is to promulgate and periodically review, at five-year intervals, "primary"
(health-based) and "secondary" (welfare-based) NAAQS for such pollutants.1 Based on
periodic reviews of the air quality criteria and standards, the Administrator is to make
revisions in the criteria and standards, and promulgate any new standards, as may be
appropriate. The Act also requires that an independent scientific review committee
advise the Administrator as part of this NAAQS review process, a function performed by
the Clean Air Scientific Advisory Committee (CASAC).
EPA's overall plan and schedule for this Oj NAAQS review is presented in a Plan
for Review of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards for Ozone (EPA, 2005a),
which is available at: http://www.epa.gov/ttn/naaqs/standards/ozone/s o3 cr_pd.html .
That plan discusses the preparation of two key documents in the NAAQS review process:
an Air Quality Criteria Document (hereafter cited as CD) and a Staff Paper. The CD
provides a critical assessment of the latest available scientific information upon which the
NAAQS are to be based, and the Staff Paper evaluates the policy implications of the
information contained in the CD and discusses standard-setting options for the
Administrator to consider. In conjunction with preparation of the Staff Paper, staff in
EPA's Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards (OAQPS) conducts various policy-
relevant assessments, including in this review a quantitative exposure analysis and a
human health risk assessment. Both the exposure analysis and the risk assessment
require a quantitative analysis of O3 air quality. The methods and results of this analysis
are described in Chapters 2 and 4 of the Staff Paper (EPA, 2007a) (hereafter "Staff
Paper") and in Fitz-Simons et al. (2005) and Rizzo (2005, 2006). The methods and
results of the modeling of personal exposures are discussed in Chapter 4 of the Staff
Paper and in an accompanying technical support document (EPA, 2007b). The methods
and results of the human health risk assessment are described in this document.
Section 109(b)(l) [42 U.S.C. 7409] of the Act defines a primary standard as one "the attainment
and maintenance of which in the judgment of the Administrator, based on such criteria and allowing an
adequate margin of safety, are requisite to protect the public health."
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As part of the last Os NAAQS review, EPA conducted exposure analyses for the
general population; children, who spend more time outdoors; and outdoor workers.
Exposure estimates were generated for 9 urban areas for existing (referred to as "as is")
air quality and for just meeting the existing 1-hour standard and several alternative 8-hour
standards. Several reports (Johnson et al., 1996a,b,c; Johnson, 1997) that describe these
analyses can be found at:
http://www.epa.gov/ttn/naaqs/standards/ozone/s o3_pr td.html. EPA also conducted a
health risk assessment that produced risk estimates for the number and percent of
children experiencing lung function and respiratory symptoms associated with the
exposures estimated for these same 9 urban areas. This portion of the risk assessment
was based on exposure-response relationships developed from analysis of data from
several controlled human exposure studies. The risk assessment for the last review also
included risk estimates for excess respiratory-related hospital admissions related to Os
concentrations for New York City based on a concentration-response relationship
reported in an epidemiology study. Risk estimates for lung function decrements,
respiratory symptoms, and hospital admissions were developed for "as is" air quality and
for just meeting the existing 1-hour standard and several alternative 8-hour standards.
Reports describing the health risk assessment (Whitfield et al., 1996; Whitfield, 1997)
can be found at: http://www.epa.gov/ttn/naaqs/standards/ozone/s_o3_pr_td.html.
The health risk assessment described in this report builds upon the methodology
and lessons learned from the exposure and risk work conducted for the last review. This
report is also based on the information and evaluation contained in the final 63 CD (EPA,
2006a) (hereafter Os CD). The general approach used in the current risk assessment was
described in the draft Health Assessment Plan (EPA, 2005b), that was released to the
CAS AC and general public in April 2005 for review and comment and was the subject of
a consultation with the CAS AC 63 Panel on May 5, 2005. The approach used in the
current risk assessment reflects consideration of the comments offered by CAS AC
members and the public on the draft Health Assessment Plan; comments offered on the
first drafts of the Staff Paper and Risk Assessment TSD at and subsequent to a
consultation with CAS AC on December 8, 2005; CAS AC comments provided to the
EPA in letters dated February 16, 2006 (Henderson, 2006a) and June 5, 2006
(Henderson, 2006b); and comments offered on the second draft Staff Paper and draft Risk
Assessment TSD at and subsequent to a consultation with CASAC on August 24 and 25,
2006, including CASAC comments provided to EPA in a letter dated October 24, 2006
(Henderson, 2006c).
The O3 health risk assessment described in this document estimates the health
effects associated with short-term exposures to 63 under recent ("as is") air quality levels
and upon just meeting the current and several alternative OB primary NAAQS in selected
sample urban areas. These assessments cover a variety of health effects for which there
is adequate information to develop quantitative risk estimates. However, there are
several health endpoints for which there currently is insufficient information to develop
quantitative risk estimates. These additional health endpoints are discussed qualitatively
in the Staff Paper. The risk assessment is intended as a tool that, together with other
information on these health endpoints and other health effects evaluated in the O3 CD and
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Staff Paper, can aid the Administrator in judging whether the current primary standard
protects public health with an adequate margin of safety, or whether revisions to the
standard are appropriate.
The basic structure of the risk assessment reflects the two different types of studies
on which the health risk assessment for O3 is based: controlled human exposure studies,
and epidemiological studies. This basic structure, as well as some preliminary
considerations, is described in Section 2. Section 3 describes the methods and results of
that portion of the risk assessment based on controlled human exposure studies. Section
4 describes the methods and results of that portion of the risk assessment based on
epidemiological studies.
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2 PRELIMINARY CONSIDERATIONS
The health risk assessment described in this report estimated various health
effects associated with Os exposures for recent ("as is") Os levels, based on 2002, 2003,
and 2004 air quality data, as well as the reduced risks for one O3 season associated with
just meeting the current 8-hour daily maximum 63 NAAQS and several alternative 8-
hour daily maximum standards. Risk estimates were developed for 12 urban areas
located throughout the U.S. In this section we address preliminary considerations.
Section 2.1 briefly discusses the broad empirical basis for a relationship between O3
exposures and adverse health effects. Section 2.2 describes the basic structure of the risk
assessment. Finally, Section 2.3 addresses air quality considerations that affect both
major portions of the risk assessment described in Section 2.2.
2.1 The Broad Empirical Basis for a Relationship Between O3 and Adverse Health
Effects
The health endpoints examined in the risk assessment include: lung function
decrements, respiratory-related hospital admissions, and mortality. In addition, estimates
of respiratory symptoms in asthmatic children were developed for one urban area. The
empirical basis for a relationship between Os exposures and adverse human health effects
extends well beyond these specific health effects, however, and is by now considered
quite solid.
In its October 24, 2006 letter to the EPA administrator (Henderson, 2006c), the
CAS AC affirmed this solid empirical basis, quoting and concurring with EPA's own
assessment, as stated in the second draft Staff Paper (EPA, 2006b):
"... While being mindful of important remaining uncertainties, staff concludes
that the newly available information generally reinforces our judgments about
causal relationships between Os exposure and respiratory effects observed in the
last review and broadens the evidence of Os-related associations to include
additional respiratory-related endpoints, newly identified cardiovascular-related
health endpoints, and mortality. Newly available evidence also has identified
increased susceptibility in people with asthma. While recognizing that important
uncertainties and research questions remain, we also conclude that progress has
been made since the last review in advancing our understanding of potential
mechanisms by which ambient Os, alone and in combination with other
pollutants, is causally linked to a range of respiratory- and cardiovascular-related
health endpoints." (Pages 6-6 and 6-7)
The CASAC pointed to "several new single-city studies and large multi-city
studies designed specifically to examine the effects of ozone and other pollutants on both
morbidity and mortality" that have "provided more evidence for adverse health effects at
concentrations lower than the current standard." (Henderson, 2006c, p. 3). The CASAC
also pointed to the results from controlled human exposure studies, noting that "these
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findings were observed in healthy volunteers" and that, although similar studies in
sensitive groups such as asthmatics have not yet been conducted, "people with asthma,
and particularly children, have been found to be more sensitive and to experience larger
decrements in lung function in response to ozone exposures than would healthy
volunteers" (Henderson, 2006c, p. 4).
The CASAC also noted that, in addition to the lung function decrements seen in
controlled human exposure studies, "adverse health effects due to low-concentration
exposure to ambient ozone (that is, below the current primary 8-hour NAAQS) ...
include: an increase in school absenteeism; increases in respiratory hospital emergency
department visits among asthmatics and patients with other respiratory diseases; an
increase in hospitalizations for respiratory illnesses; an increase in symptoms associated
with adverse health effects, including chest tightness and medication usage; and an
increase in mortality (non-accidental, cardiorespiratory deaths) reported at exposure
levels well below the current standard. The CASAC considers each of these findings to be
an important indicator of adverse health effect^ (Henderson, 2006c, p. 4).
2.2 Basic Structure of the Risk Assessment
At this time, two general types of human studies are particularly relevant for
deriving quantitative relationships between O3 levels and human health effects: controlled
human exposure studies and epidemiological studies. Controlled human exposure studies
involve volunteer subjects who are exposed while engaged in different exercise regimens
to specified levels of Os under controlled conditions for specified amounts of time. The
responses measured in such studies have included measures of lung function, such as
forced expiratory volume in one second (FEVi), respiratory symptoms, airway
hyperresponsiveness, and inflammation. As noted above, prior EPA risk assessments for
Os have included risk estimates for lung function decrements and respiratory symptoms
based on analysis of individual data from controlled human exposure studies. For the
current health risk assessment, we used exposure-response relationships based on
analysis of individual data that describe the relationship between a measure of personal
exposure to Os and the measure(s) of lung function recorded in several studies. The
measure of personal exposure to ambient 63 is typically some function of hourly
exposures - e.g., 1-hour maximum or 8-hour maximum. Therefore, a risk assessment
based on exposure-response relationships derived from controlled human exposure study
data requires estimates of personal exposure to Os, typically on a 1-hour or multi-hour
basis. Because data on personal hourly 63 exposures are not available, estimates of
personal exposures to varying ambient concentrations were derived through exposure
modeling, as described in the exposure analysis technical support document (EPA,
2007b).
In contrast to the exposure-response relationships derived from controlled human
exposure studies, epidemiological studies provide estimated concentration-response (C-
R) relationships based on data collected in real world settings. Ambient Os concentration
is typically measured as the average of monitor-specific measurements. Population
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health responses for Os have included lung function decrements, respiratory symptoms in
moderate to severe asthmatic children, asthma emergency department visits, respiratory-
related hospital admissions and premature mortality. As described more fully below, a
risk assessment based on epidemiological studies requires baseline incidence rates and
population data for the risk assessment locations.
The characteristics that are relevant to carrying out a risk assessment based on
controlled human exposure studies versus one based on epidemiology studies can be
summarized as follows:
• A risk assessment based on controlled human exposure studies uses exposure-
response functions, and therefore requires as input (modeled) personal
exposures to O3. A risk assessment based on epidemiology studies uses C-R
functions, and therefore requires as input (monitored) ambient 63
concentrations.
• Epidemiological studies are carried out in specific real world locations (e.g.,
specific urban areas). A risk assessment focused on locations in which the
epidemiologic studies providing the C-R functions were carried out will
minimize uncertainties. Controlled human exposure studies, carried out in
laboratory settings, are generally not specific to any particular real world
location. A controlled human exposure studies-based risk assessment can
therefore appropriately be carried out for any location for which there are
adequate air quality data on which to base the modeling of personal exposures.
• The adequate modeling of hourly personal exposures associated with ambient
concentrations requires more complete ambient monitoring data than are
necessary to estimate average ambient concentrations used to calculate risks
based on C-R relationships. Therefore, there may be some locations in which
an epidemiological studies-based risk assessment could appropriately be
carried out but a controlled human exposure studies-based risk assessment
would introduce significant additional uncertainty.
• To derive estimates of risk from C-R relationships estimated in
epidemiological studies, it is usually necessary to have estimates of the
baseline incidences of the health effects involved. Such baseline incidence
estimates are not needed in a controlled human exposure studies-based risk
assessment.
The methods and results for the two parts of the risk assessment - the part based on
controlled human exposure studies and the part based on epidemiological studies - are
discussed in Sections 3 and 4 below. Both parts of the risk assessment were implemented
within a new probabilistic version of TREVI.Risk, the component of EPA's Total Risk
Integrated Methodology (TRIM) model that estimates human health risks.
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2.3 Air Quality Considerations
Both the portion of the risk assessment based on controlled human exposure studies
and the portion based on epidemiological studies include risk estimates for a recent year
of air quality ("as is" air quality) and for air quality adjusted so that it simulates just
meeting the current or alternative 8-hr O3 standards based on a recent three-year period
(2002-2004). This period was selected to represent the most recent air quality for which
complete data were available when the risk assessment was conducted.
In order to estimate health risks associated with just meeting the current and
alternative 8-hr O3 standards, it is necessary to estimate the distribution of hourly O3
concentrations that would occur under any given standard. Since compliance with the
current O3 standard is based on a 3-year average, air quality data from 2002 to 2004 were
used to determine the amount of reduction in O3 concentrations required to meet the
current standard. Estimated design values were used to determine the adjustment
necessary to just meet the current 8-hr daily maximum standard. The amount of control
was then applied to each year of data (2002, 2003, and 2004) to estimate risks for a single
O3 season or single warm O3 season, depending on the health effect, in each of these
individual years.
As described in section 4.5.6 of the Staff Paper and in more detail in Rizzo (2005,
2006), after considering several approaches, including proportional rollback and Weibull
adjustment procedures, EPA concluded that the Quadratic air quality adjustment
procedure generally best represented the pattern of reductions across the O3 air quality
distribution observed over the last decade. The Quadratic air quality adjustment
procedure was applied in each of the 12 urban areas to the filled in 2002, 2003, and 2004
O3 monitoring data, based on the 3-year period (2002-2004) O3 design values, to generate
new time series of hourly O3 concentrations for 2002, 2003, and 2004 that simulate air
quality levels that just meet the current 8-hr O3 standard and each of the alternative 8-hr
O3 standards considered in the risk assessment over this three year period.
Because compliance with the current standard is based on the 3-year average of the
4th daily maximum 8-hr values, the air quality distribution in each of the 3 years can and
generally does vary. As a result, the risk estimates associated with air quality just
meeting the current standard also will vary depending on the year chosen for the analysis.
The risk assessment includes risk estimates involving adjustment of 2002, 2003, and
2004 air quality data to illustrate the magnitude of this year-to-year variability in the
estimates. The year 2002 generally had meteorology that was very conducive to
producing O3 over the eastern half of the U.S., and this resulted in the highest O3 levels
over the 2002-2004 time period in the vast majority of the 12 urban study areas. In
contrast, 2004 was a year associated with an unusually cool and rainy summer in the
eastern half of the U.S. and this contributed to the fact that the lowest O3 levels over this
same three-year period were observed in this year in most of the urban areas included in
the risk assessment. The lower O3 levels observed in 2004 were also due, in part, to
reductions in emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOX) associated with implementation of
additional regional controls on large power plants in the eastern half of the U.S. The risk
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results for 2002 and 2004 thus provide generally lower-end and upper-end estimates of
the annual risks that can occur over a three-year period when alternative standards are
just met in most of the urban areas examined.
Daily maximum 1-hr and 8-hr Os levels in 2003 generally fell somewhere between
2002 and 2004 levels in most of the 12 urban areas. Differences in meteorology were
less evident in Texas and California, and these areas also were not impacted by the recent
additional regional controls imposed on large power plants. It is therefore not surprising
that the daily maximum 8-hr levels observed in Houston in 2003 and 2004 were
somewhat higher than those observed in 2002 and that 8-hr levels were higher in Los
Angeles in 2003.
The risk estimates developed for both the recent air quality scenario and scenarios
in which O3 concentrations just meet the current or alternative 8-hr standards represent
risks associated with 63 levels in excess of estimated background concentrations. The
results of the global tropospheric Os model GEOS-CHEM have been used to estimate
average background Os levels for different geographic regions across the U.S. These
GEOS-CHEM simulations include a background simulation in which North American
anthropogenic emissions of nitrogen oxides, non-methane volatile organic compounds,
and carbon monoxide are set to zero, as described in Fiore et al. (2003). EPA estimated
monthly background concentrations for each of the 12 urban areas based on the GEOS-
CHEM simulations, including daily diurnal profiles that were fixed for each day of each
month during the Os season (see Appendix 2-A of the Staff Paper for plots of these
estimated background values).
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3 ASSESSMENT OF RISK BASED ON CONTROLLED HUMAN EXPOSURE
STUDIES
3.1 Methods
The major components of the part of the health risk assessment based on data
from controlled human exposure studies are illustrated in Figure 3-1. The air quality and
exposure analysis components that are integral to this part of the risk assessment are
discussed in Chapters 2 and 4, respectively, of the Staff Paper. As described in the O3
CD, there are numerous controlled human exposure studies reporting lung function
decrements (as measured by changes in FEVi), other measures of lung function, airway
responsiveness, respiratory symptoms, and various markers of inflammation. Most of
these studies have involved voluntary exposures with healthy adults, although a few
studies have been conducted with mild and moderate asthmatics and one study reported
lung function decrements for children 8-11 years old (McDonnell et al., 1985a) at a single
exposure level.
3.1.1 Selection of health endpoints
In the last review, the health risk assessment estimated both lung function
decrements (>10, >15, and >20% changes in FEVi) and respiratory symptoms in children
6-18 years old associated with 1-hour exposures at moderate and heavy exertion and 8-
hour exposures at moderate exertion. At that time EPA staff and the CAS AC O3 Panel
judged that it was reasonable to estimate the exposure-response relationships for children
6-18 years old based on data from adult subjects (18-35 years old). As discussed in the
1996 O3 Staff Paper (EPA, 1996a) and 1996 O3 CD (EPA, 1996b), findings from other
chamber studies (McDonnell et al., 1985a) for children 8-11 years old for a single
exposure level and summer camp field studies involving children exposed to ambient O3
in at least six different locations in the United States and Canada found lung function
changes in healthy children similar to those observed in healthy adults exposed to O3
under controlled chamber conditions. We are using the same approach in this
assessment.
In the prior risk assessment, EPA estimated risk for lung function decrements
associated with 1-hour heavy exertion, 1-hour moderate exertion, and 8-hour moderate
exertion exposures. Since the 8-hour moderate exertion exposure scenario clearly
resulted in the greatest health risks in terms of lung function decrements, EPA staff has
chosen to include only the 8-hour moderate exertion exposures in the current risk
assessment for this health endpoint. As discussed in Chapter 4 of the Staff Paper, levels
of physical activity were categorized by a daily Physical Activity Index (PAI). Children
were characterized as active if their median daily PAI over the period modeled was 1.75
or higher, a level characterized by exercise physiologists as being "moderately active" or
"active."
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Figure 3-1. Components of Ozone Health Risk Assessment Based on Controlled Human Exposure Studies
Air Quality
Ambient
Monitoring for
Selected Urban
Areas
Modeled
Background
Concentrations
Air Quality
Adjustment
Procedures
Current and
Alternative
Proposed
Standards
Recent
("As Is")
Ambient
O-, Levels
Exposure
Exposure
Model
Exposure Estimates
Associated with:
•Background
Concentrations
•Recent Air Quality
•Current Standard
•Alternative
Standards
Exposure-Response
Controlled Human
Exposure Studies
Probabilistic
Exposure -
Response
Relationships
Health
Risk
Model
Risk Estimates:
• Recent Air
Quality
• Current
Standard
• Alternative
Standards
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Although respiratory symptoms in healthy children were estimated in the last review,
EPA staff has decided not to estimate respiratory symptoms in healthy children given the lack of
symptoms found in field studies examining responses in healthy children published since the
prior review. The 63 CD concludes that "collectively, these studies indicate that there is no
consistent evidence of an association between Os and respiratory symptoms among healthy
children" (p. 7-55). While a number of controlled human exposure studies have been published
since the last review reporting various other acute effects, including airway responsiveness and
increases in inflammatory indicators, none of these studies were conducted at multiple
concentration levels within the range of greatest interest (i.e., below 0.12 ppm). Thus, EPA staff
has decided to limit this portion of the risk assessment to lung function decrements in children
and to again base the exposure-response relationships on data obtained for 18-35 year old
subjects.
3.1.2 Development of exposure-response functions
We used a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach to estimate probabilistic
exposure-response relationships for lung function decrements associated with 8-hour moderate
exertion exposures, using the WinBUGS software (Spiegelhalter et al. (1996)). (For an
explanation of these methods, see Gelman et al. (1995) or Gilks et al. (1996). The combined
data set from the Folinsbee et al. (1988), Horstman et al. (1990), and McDonnell et al. (1991)
studies provide three data points - lung function decrements associated with each of three O3
concentrations (0.08, 0.10, and 0.12 ppm) - for each of the three measures of lung function
decrement listed above (>10, >15, and >20% changes in FEVi). In addition, we now have three
studies by Adams (Adams 2002, 2003, and 2006) that provide data for 63 concentrations of 0.04
and 0.06 ppm as well as additional data for 0.08 and 0.12 ppm. In total, then, we have data for
five Os concentrations - 0.04, 0.06, 0.08, 0.10, and 0.12 ppm. All of these studies were
conducted for 6.6 hours under moderate exertion.
Before being used to estimate exposure-response relationships for 8-hour exposures, the
data from these controlled human exposure studies were corrected for the effect of exercise in
clean air to remove any systematic bias that might be present in the data attributable to an
exercise effect. Generally, this correction for exercise in clean air is small relative to the total
effects measures in the (Vexposed cases. The resulting study-specific results, based on the
corrected data, are shown in Table 3-1.
Our Bayesian estimation approach incorporated both model (epistemic) uncertainty and
(aleatory) uncertainty about the values of the parameters in the models considered. In particular,
for each of the three measures of lung function decrement we assumed a 90 percent probability
that the exposure-response function has the following 3-parameter logistic form:2'3
2 As noted in Whitfield et al., 1996, the response data point in the combined dataset from the Folinsbee, Horstman,
and McDonnell studies associated with 0.12 ppm for the response measure FEVI > 15% appeared to be inconsistent
with the other data points (see Whitfield et al., 1996, Table 10, footnote c). Because of this, we estimated the
probability of a response of FEVI > 15% at an O3 concentration of 0.12 ppm by interpolating between the FEVI >
10% and FEVI > 20% response rates at that O3 concentration.
3 The 3-parameter logistic function is a special case of the 4-parameter logistic, in which the function is forced to go
through the origin, so that the probability of response to 0.00 ppm is 0.
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Table 3-1. Study-Specific Ozone Exposure-Response Data for Lung Function Decrements
Study and O3 Level
Protocol
Change in FEV!>10%
Number
Exposed
Number
Responding
Change in FEV!>15%
Number
Exposed
Number
Responding
Change in FEV!>20%
Number
Exposed
Number
Responding
0.04ppmO3
Adams (2006)
Adams (2002)
Triangular
Square-wave, face mask
30
30
0
2
30
30
0
0
30
30
0
0
0.06ppmO3
Adams (2006)
Square-wave
Triangular
30
30
2
2
30
30
0
2
30
30
0
0
0.08ppmO3
Adams (2006)
Adams (2003)
Adams (2002)
F-H-M*
Square-wave
Triangular
Square-wave, chamber
Square-wave, face mask
Variable levels (0.08 ppm
avg), chamber
Variable levels (0.08 ppm
avg), face mask
Square-wave, face mask
Square-wave
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
60
7
9
6
9
6
5
6
18
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
60
2
3
2
3
1
3
5
11
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
60
1
1
1
1
1
0
2
5
0.1 ppm O3
F-H-M
Square-wave
32
13
32
9
32
5
0.12 ppm O3
Adams (2002)
F-H-M
Square-wave, chamber
Square-wave, face mask
Square-wave
30
30
30
17
21
15
30
30
30**
12
13
15**
30
30
30
10
7
6
*Data from Folinsbee et al. (1988), Horstman et al. (1990), and McDonnell et al. (1991) are combined.
**In general, the percentages of responders followed the same pattern at each of the three ozone concentrations in the Folinsbee, Horstman, and McDonnell studies -
the percentage with FEVi decrements > 15% at a given ozone concentration was about midway between the percentages with FEVi decrements > 10% and > 20% at
that ozone concentration. The sole exception was the percentage with FEVi decrements > 15% at an ozone concentration of 0.12 ppm, which was the same as the
percentage with FEVi decrements > 10% at 0.12 ppm (50%). This data point was therefore sufficiently inconsistent with the other data that it was considered an
outlier and was not included in the analysis.
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-
(x,a,P,y)= , (3-1)
V / n x+ V ;
where ;r denotes the Os concentration (in ppm) to which the individual is exposed, y denotes the
corresponding response (decrement in FEVi > 10%, > 15% or > 20%), and a, /?, and j are the
three parameters whose values are estimated.
We assumed a 10 percent probability that the exposure-response function has the
following linear (hockey stick) form:
[a + fix, for a + Bx> 0
y(x,a,j3) = \ . (3-2)
/V ; 0, V ;
We assumed that the number of responses, S, out of N subjects exposed to a given
concentration, x, has a binomial distribution with response probability given by model (3-1) with
90 percent probability and response probability given by model (3-2) with 10 percent probability.
The choice of a 90 percent logistic/10 percent linear split as the base case for the current risk
assessment was made by EPA staff (EPA, 2007a) based on the following considerations: 1) the
prior 1997 risk assessment had used a linear form consistent with the advice from the CAS AC Os
Panel at the time that a linear model reasonably fit the available data at 0.08, 0.10, and 0. 12 ppm;
2) with the addition of data at 0.06 and 0.04 ppm, a logistic model provides a very good fit to the
data; and 3) as the current CAS AC Os Panel has noted, there is only very limited data at the two
lowest exposure levels and, therefore, a linear model cannot entirely be ruled out. Section 3.3.2
presents the results of sensitivity analyses that explore the impact of different assumptions about
the functional form of the exposure-response function.
In some of the controlled human exposure studies, subjects were exposed to a given O3
concentration more than once - for example, using a square-wave exposure pattern in one
protocol and a triangular exposure pattern in another protocol. However, because there were
insufficient data to estimate subject-specific response probabilities, we assumed a single
response probability (for a given definition of response) for all individuals and treated the
repeated exposures for a single subject as independent exposures in the binomial distribution.
For each of the two functional forms (logistic and linear), we derived a Bayesian
posterior distribution using this binomial likelihood function in combination with prior
distributions for each of the unknown parameters. We assumed lognormal priors with maximum
likelihood estimates of the means and variances for the parameters of the logistic function, and
normal priors, similarly with maximum likelihood estimates for the means and variances, for the
parameters of the linear function. For each of the two functional forms considered, we used
1000 iterations as the "burn-in" period followed by 9,000 iterations for the estimation. Each
iteration corresponds to a set of values for the parameters of the (logistic or linear) exposure-
response function. We then combined the 9,000 sets of values from the logistic model runs with
the last 1,000 sets of values from the linear model runs to get a single combined distribution of
10,000 sets of values reflecting the 90 percent/10 percent assumptions stated above.
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For any O3 concentration, x, we could then derive the nth percentile response value, for
any n, by evaluating the exposure-response function at x using each of thelO,000 sets of
parameter values (9,000 of which were for a logistic model and 1,000 of which were for a linear
model). The resulting median (50th percentile) exposure-response functions for changes in FEVi
> 10%, > 15% and > 20% are shown together in Figure 3-2. The 2.5th percentile, median, and
97.5th percentile curves, along with the response data to which they were fit, are shown
separately for each of the three response definitions in Figures 3-3a, b, and c, respectively.
3.1.3 Approach to calculating risk estimates
We have generated several risk measures for this portion of the risk assessment. In
addition to the estimates of the number of school age children and active children experiencing 1
or more occurrences of a lung function decrement > 10%, > 15% and > 20% in an O3 season,
risk estimates have been developed for the total number of occurrences of these lung function
decrements in school age children and active school age children. The mean number of
occurrences per child has been calculated to provide an indicator of the average number of times
that a responder would experience the specified effect during an O3 season.
A headcount risk estimate for a given lung function decrement (e.g., >20% change in
FEVi) is an estimate of the expected number of people who will experience that lung function
decrement. To obtain risk estimates associated with ozone concentrations in excess of policy
relevant background (PRB) concentrations, we have (1) estimated expected risk, given the
personal exposures associated with "as is" ambient O3 concentrations, (2) estimated expected
risk, given the personal exposures associated with estimated background ambient O3
concentrations, and (3) subtracted the latter from the former. The headcount risk is then
calculated by multiplying the resulting expected risk by the number of people in the relevant
population. Because response rates are calculated for 21 fractiles, estimated headcount risks are
similarly fractile-specific.
Figure 3-2. Bayesian-Estimated (90% Logistic and 10% Linear) Median Exposure-Response Functions:
Change in FEVi > 10%, 15%, and 20%
70%
60%
H 50%
ro
=20%
0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10
Ozone Concentration (ppm)
0.12
0.14
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December 2006
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Figure 3-3. a, b, c. Probabilistic Exposure-Response Relationships for FEVi Decrement > 10%, > 15%, and
> 20% for 8-Hour Exposures Under Moderate Exertion*
a) FEVi Decrement > 10%
13
0)
to
c
o
to
&
100%
Qn%
Rn%
7n%
60%
50%
40%
30%
on%
10%
0%
(
*r'
* ^~-~~
_**•* j«--^^^
'•&-''
SXS
^X--'
r-^^-
D 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14
Ozone Concentration (ppm)
^ Original Response Data
2 5th percentile curve
b) FEVi Decrement > 15%
13
0)
to
c
o
to
0)
100%
80%
70%
60%
50%
4n%
30%
on%
10%
n%
c
^f^"
^—^
s/^'''
^+*
^^~~^je£^~
) 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14
Ozone Concentration (ppm)
^ Original Response Data
c) FEVi Decrement > 20 %
90%
80%
70%
60%
c
Q. 40%
to
HI
OL
0%
# Original Response Data
2.5th percentile curve
median curve
97.5th percentile curve
0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1
Ozone Concentration (ppm)
0.12
0.14
* Derived from Folinsbee et al., 1988; Horstman et al. 1990; McDonnell et al., 1991; Adams 2002, 2003, 2006).
Each curve is 90% logistic and 10% linear (see text above).
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The risk (i.e., expected fractional response rate) for the kth fractile, Rk is:
Rk=^P].x(RRk e}-) - rPtbX(RRk ef) (Equation 3-1)
i=\ t=\
where:
6j = (the midpoint of) the jth category of personal exposure to ozone, given "as is"
ambient O3 concentrations;
e\= (the midpoint of) the ith category of personal exposure to ozone, given background
ambient O3 concentrations;
PJ = the fraction of the population having personal exposures to O3 concentration of e}
ppm, given "as is" ambient O3 concentrations;
Pf = the fraction of the population having personal exposures to O3 concentration of
ef ppm, given background ambient O3 concentrations;
RRk | ej = k-fractile response rate at O3 concentration BJ;
RRk | e\ = k-fractile response rate at O3 concentration ef ; and
N= number of intervals (categories) of O3 personal exposure concentration, given "as is"
ambient O3 concentrations; and
Nb = number of intervals of O3 personal exposure concentration, given background
ambient O3 concentrations.
For example, if the median expected response rate given "as is" ambient concentrations is
0.065 (i.e., the median expected fraction of the population responding is 6.5%) and the median
expected response rate given background ambient concentrations is 0.001 (i.e., the median
expected fraction of the population responding is 0.1%), then the median expected response rate
associated with "as is" ambient concentrations above PRB concentrations is 0.065 - 0.001 =
0.064. If there are 300,000 people in the relevant population, then the headcount risk is 0.064 x
300,000= 19,200.
An artifact of the method used is that the population numbers associated with PRB
concentrations were not identical to those associated with "as is" concentrations (or
concentrations rolled back to simulate just meeting current or alternative standards) in the same
location. Before calculating risk estimates associated with ozone concentrations in excess of
PRB concentrations, we therefore first normalized the number of responders (or the number of
occurrences of response) given personal exposures associated with "as is" ambient O3
Abt Associates Inc. 3-8 December 2006
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concentrations (or concentrations rolled back to simulate just meeting a standard) by multiplying
by the ratio of the population associated with PRB concentrations to the population associated
with "as is" concentrations (or concentrations rolled back to simulate just meeting current or
alternative standards in the same location). For example, the number of person-days for all
children in St. Louis associated with PRB concentrations was 39,500,000; the number of person-
days for all children in St. Louis associated with "as is" concentrations was 42,310,000. The
ratio of the former to the latter is 0.9336. The number of person-days with a decrease in FEVi
>10% given personal exposures associated with "as is" ambient 63 concentrations was 391,011.
After normalizing to the background population of person-days, this becomes 365,042. The
number of person-days with a decrease in FEVi >10% given personal exposures associated with
PRB 63 concentrations was 50,183. The number of occurrences of a decrease in FEVi >10%
associated with "as is" ambient 63 concentrations over PRB concentrations was therefore
calculated to be 365,042 - 50,183 = 314,859, or about 315,000.
3.1.4 Selection of urban areas
EPA staff chose to develop lung function decrement risk estimates for school age
children and active school age children living in 12 urban areas in the U.S. Since the exposure-
response functions for lung function decrements based on the controlled human exposure studies
were based on controlled laboratory conditions, the location of these studies played no role in
selecting urban locations for the risk assessment. Instead, several criteria and considerations
guided the selection of urban areas for the risk assessment, including the following:
• The overall set of urban locations should represent a range of geographic areas, urban
population demographics, and climatology, and be focused on areas that do not meet the
current 8-hour O3 NAAQS.
• The largest areas with major Os nonattainment problems should be included.
• There must be sufficient air quality data for the three-year period (2002 - 2004).
Several additional criteria, which apply to the epidemiology-based portion of the risk
assessment, are discussed below in Section 4.1.4. Because the same 12 urban areas were used in
both the controlled human studies- and the epidemiological studies-based portions of the risk
assessment, these additional criteria were used to further narrow the choice of urban areas for
which lung function decrement risk estimates were developed.
For the purposes of estimating population exposure and the risk of lung function
decrements associated with these population exposure estimates, the 12 urban areas were defined
based on consolidated statistical areas (CSAs). In contrast, for the risk estimates for premature
mortality and excess hospital admissions based on C-R relationships estimated in
epidemiological studies, the urban areas were defined to be generally consistent with the
geographic boundaries used in those studies. While risk estimates in the epidemiology-based
portion of the 63 risk assessment are based on the months of April through September, risk
estimates in the controlled human studies-based portion are based on the actual location-specific
Os seasons. The CSAs and their Os seasons are shown in Table 3-2. Throughout the rest of this
report, the urban area in bold is used as a short-hand name representing the entire CSA for the
Abt Associates Inc. 3-9 December 2006
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lung function part of the risk assessment. The populations of all, active, and asthmatic school
age children in these areas are shown in Table 3-3.
3.1.5 Addressing variability and uncertainty
Any estimation of risk and reduced risks associated with just meeting the current 63
standards should address both the variability and uncertainty that generally underlie such an
analysis. Uncertainty refers to the lack of knowledge regarding the actual values of model input
variables (parameter uncertainty) and of physical systems or relationships (model uncertainty -
e.g., the shapes of exposure-response and concentration-response functions). The goal of the
analyst is to reduce uncertainty to the maximum extent possible. Uncertainty can be reduced by
improved measurement and improved model formulation. In a health risk assessment, however,
significant uncertainty often remains.
Table 3-2. Urban Areas Used in the Controlled Human Studies-Portion of the O3 Risk Assessment and Their
O3 Seasons
Urban Area (CSA)
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Gainesville, GA-AL
Boston-Worcester-Manchester, MA-NH
Chicago-Naperville-Michigan City, IL-IN-WI
Cleveland-Akron-Elyria, OH
Detroit-Warren-Flint, MI
Houston-Baytown-Huntsville, TX
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Riverside, CA
New York-Newark-Bridgeport, NY-NJ-CT-PA
Philadelphia-Camden-Vineland, PA-NJ-DE-MD
Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Truckee, CA-NV
St. Louis-St. Charles-Farmington, MO-IL
Washington-Baltimore-N. Virginia, DC-MD-VA-WV
Os Season
March 1 to Oct. 3 1
April 1 to Sept. 30
April 1 to Sept. 30
April 1 to Oct. 3 1
April 1 to Sept. 30
Jan. 1 to Dec. 30
Jan. 1 to Dec. 30
April 1 to Sept. 30
April 1 to Oct. 3 1
Jan. 1 to Dec. 30
April 1 to Oct. 3 1
April 1 to Oct. 3 1
Abt Associates Inc.
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December 2006
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Table 3-3. Population Coverage of Modeled Areas
Urban Area (CSA)
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, DC
Modeled
population
(thousands)
4,548
5,714
9,311
2,945
5,357
4,815
16,349
21,357
5,832
1,930
2,754
7,572
All school
age children
(thousands)
942
1,098
1,946
582
1,110
1,076
3,594
4,084
1,179
418
572
1,473
Active
school age
children
(thousands)
519
529
933
295
553
598
1,951
2,009
609
226
309
759
Asthmatic
school age
children
(thousands)
100
200
300
100
200
100
500
600
200
100
100
200
The degree of uncertainty can be characterized, sometimes quantitatively. For example,
the statistical uncertainty surrounding the estimated 63 coefficients in the exposure-response
functions is reflected in confidence or credible intervals provided for the risk estimates.
As described in Section 3.1.3 above, we used a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo
approach to estimate exposure-response functions as well as to characterize uncertainty
attributable to sampling error based on sample size considerations. Using this approach, we
could derive the n percentile response value, for any n, for any Oj concentration, x, as described
above (see Section 3.1.3). Because our exposure estimates were generated at the midpoints of
0.01 ppm intervals (i.e., for 0.005 ppm, 0.015 ppm, etc.), we derived 2.5th percentile, 50th
percentile (median), and 97.5th percentile response estimates for Oj, concentrations at these
midpoint values. The 2.5th percentile and 97.5th percentile response estimates comprise the lower
and upper bounds of the credible interval around each point estimate (median estimate) of
response. The median curve, and the upper and lower bounds of the credible intervals are shown
above, separately for each of the three response definitions, in Figures 3-3 a, b, and c,
respectively.
As noted above, the exposure-response functions shown in Figures 3-3a, b, and c above
are based on the assumption that the relationship between exposure and response has a logistic
form with 90 percent probability and a linear (hockeystick) form with 10 percent probability. If
we had assumed different probabilities for the two alternative functional forms, the resulting
Abt Associates Inc. 3-11 December 2006
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exposure-response curves, and the response probabilities associated with exposure to any given
Os concentration, would have been different. Alternative median exposure-response functions,
with 95% credible intervals, based on an 80 percent logistic/20 percent linear split and a 50
percent logistic/50 percent linear split are shown in Figures 3-4 and 3-5, respectively. The
median exposure-response functions for all three alternative forms are shown for decrements in
FEVi >10% and >15% in Figures 3-6a and b, respectively.
We carried out sensitivity analyses to explore the impact of alternative input values for
two sources of uncertainty that we did not characterize quantitatively. The first set of sensitivity
analyses explore the impact of alternative assumptions about PRB levels in each of three of the
locations included in the risk assessment - Atlanta, Los Angeles, and New York. The second set
of sensitivity analyses explores the impact of different assumptions about the functional form of
the exposure-response function. The results from both sets of sensitivity analyses are presented
in Section 3.3 below.
Abt Associates Inc. 3-12 December 2006
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Figure 3-4. Probabilistic Exposure-Response Relationships for FEVi Decrement > 10%, > 15%, and > 20% for
8-Hour Exposures Under Moderate Exertion: Comparison of 90% Logistic/10% Linear (Hockeystick) Split and
80% Logistic/20% Linear (Hockeystick) Split in Assumed Relationship Between Exposure and Response*
FEVj Decrement > 10%: 90% Logistic/10% Linear
FEVj Decrement > 10%: 80% Logistic/20% Linear
100% -
90% -
80% -
.2 70% -
& 60% -
HI
£ 50% -
Q. 40% -
| 30% -
20% -
10% -
0% -
(
^
S^~
/S .-
''S'"'
//?
4£L
22
_=*^*'
3 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14
Ozone Concentration (ppm)
^EVj Decrement^ 15%: 90% Logistic/10% Linear
100%
90%
80%
0 70%
<£. 60%
| 50%
Q. 40%
| 30%
20%
10%
0%
c
s^
s*^-
//*.-. .
//:••-
•^r'
) 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14
Ozone Concentration (ppm)
^EVj Decrement > 20%: 90% Logistic/10% Linear
90%
80%
0 70%
£ 60%
« 50%
Q. 40%
| 30%
20%
10%
0%
_____-.
^^-*
/^''-"
-— -C^?''^
0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14
Ozone Concentration (ppm)
F
F
100%
90%
80%
0 70% -
£ 60%
HI
« 50%
§. 40%
| 30%
20%
10% -
0%
s
S' ^
/^..
''{-"'
'ff
XX-"
&
^^'
D 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14
Ozone Concentration (ppm)
"EVj Decrement^ 15%: 80% Logistic/20% Linear
100%
90% -
80% -
.2 70% -
& 60% -
« 50% -
Q. 40% -
| 30% -
20% -
10% -
0% -
(
^s^
'\^
s^..~
/*••'
^•''
^--zstiZ?'*
) 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14
Ozone Concentration (ppm)
"EVj Decrement^ 20%: 80% Logistic/20% Linear
100%
90% -
80% -
.2 70% -
& 60% -
| 50% -
Q. 40% -
| 30% -
20% -
10% -
s^^- —
/S*^''~
_^.g&^°
0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14
Ozone Concentration (ppm)
'• Derived from Folinsbee et al, 1988; Horstman et al. 1990; McDonnell et al., 1991; Adams 2002, 2003, 2006.
Abt Associates Inc.
3-13
December 2006
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Figure 3-5. Probabilistic Exposure-Response Relationships for FEVi Decrement > 10%, > 15%, and > 20% for
8-Hour Exposures Under Moderate Exertion: Comparison of 90% Logistic/10% Linear (Hockeystick) Split and
50% Logistic/50% Linear (Hockeystick) Split in Assumed Relationship Between Exposure and Response*
FEVj Decrement > 10%: 90% Logistic/10% Linear
FEVj Decrement > 10%: 50% Logistic/50% Linear
100% -
90% -
80% -
£ 70% -
Si 60% -
| 50% -
Q. 40% -
| 30% -
20% -
10% -
0% -
^
^
S^_ —
,vzr
//?•
,''*•''
SSr
nT___==-##r^*'
3 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14
Ozone Concentration (ppm)
T;V! Decrement^ 15%: 90% Logistic/10% Linear
mn%
90%
80%
v 70%
8. 60%
« 50%
2 4n%
to
a) ^n%
20%
10%
0%
C
s^
s*^
/^...
,Vs
,&'
^f~-=4f&f
) 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14
Ozone Concentration (ppm)
T;V! Decrement > 20%: 90% Logistic/10% Linear
mn%
90%
80%
15%: 50% Logistic/50% Linear
mn%
90% -
80% -
.2 70% -
& 60% -
« 50% -
0. 40% -
| 30% -
20% -
10% -
0% -
(
^^
S* ^
/ s^^.~-
/^'"'
jf-'
) 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14
Ozone Concentration (ppm)
'EVi Decrement > 20%: 50% Logistic/50% Linear
100%
90% -
80% -
.2 70% -
& 60% -
| 50% -
0. 40% -
| 30% -
20% -
10% -
^,
s~^^,
/^^''"
^^^<^
0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14
Ozone Concentration (ppm)
* Derived from Folinsbee et al., 1988; Horstman et al. 1990; McDonnell et al., 1991; Adams 2002, 2003, 2006).
Abt Associates Inc.
3-14
December 2006
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Figure 3-6. Median Exposure-Response Functions Using Three Different Combinations of Logistic and Linear
(Hockeystick) Models
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
Figure 3-6a. FEVi Decrements > 10%
90% logistic-10% linear
— ••— 80% logistic - 20% linear
- - * - -50% logistic - 50% linear
0.00
50%
45%
40%
35%
$ 30%
OL
! 25%
o
Q.
| 20%
15%
10%
5%
0.02
0.04
0.06 0.08
Ozone Exposure (ppm)
0.10
0.12
Figure 3-6b. FEVi Decrements > 15%
0.14
•«—90% logistic -10% linear
— ••— 80% logistic - 20% linear
•it • -50% logistic - 50% linear
0%
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06 0.08
Ozone Exposure (ppm)
0.10
0.12
0.14
Abt Associates Inc.
3-15
December 2006
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In addition to uncertainties arising from sampling variability, other uncertainties
associated with the use of the exposure-response relationships for lung function responses are
briefly summarized below. Additional uncertainties with respect to the exposure inputs to the
risk assessment are described in Chapter 4 of the Staff Paper and in the Exposure Assessment
TSD (EPA 2006c). The main additional uncertainties with respect to the approach used to
estimate exposure-response relationships include:
• Length of exposure. The 8-hour moderate exertion risk estimates are based on a combined
data set from six controlled human exposure studies conducted using 6.6-hr exposures. The
use of these data to estimate responses associated with an 8-hour exposure seem reasonable,
however, because lung function response appears to level off after exposure for 6 hours. It is
unlikely that the exposure-response relationships would have been appreciably different had
the studies been conducted over an 8-hour period.
• Extrapolation of exposure-response relationships. It was necessary to estimate responses at
Os levels below the lowest exposure levels used in the controlled human studies (i.e., 0.04
ppm). In both the prior review and the current assessment, the response has been
extrapolated down to background levels.
• Reproducibility of Conduced responses. The risk assessment assumed that the Os-induced
responses for individuals are reproducible. This assumption is supported by the evaluation in
the 63 CD (see section AX6.4), which cites studies by McDonnell et al. (1985b) and
Hazucha et al. (2003) as showing significant reproducibility of response.
• Age and lung function response. As in the prior review, exposure-response relationships
based on controlled human exposure studies involving 18-35 year old subjects were used in
the risk assessment to estimate responses for school age children (ages 5-18). This approach
is supported by the findings of McDonnell et al. (1985a) who reported that children 8-11
years old experienced FEVi responses similar to those observed in adults 18-35 years old
when both groups were exposed to concentrations of 0.12 ppm at an EVR of 35 L/min/m2.
In addition, a number of summer camp studies of school age children exposed in outdoor
environments in the Northeast also showed (Vinduced lung function changes similar in
magnitude to, and in some cases somewhat larger than, those observed in controlled human
exposure studies.
• Exposure history. The risk assessment assumed that the (Vinduced response on any given
day is independent of previous 63 exposures. As discussed in Chapter 3 of the Staff Paper
and in the Os CD, (Vinduced responses can be enhanced or attenuated as a result of recent
prior exposures. The possible impact of exposure history on the risk estimates is an
additional source of uncertainty that is not quantified in this assessment. In addition, the
Adams studies were conducted in southern California, where ozone levels are generally
higher than those in Chapel Hill, NC, where the Folinsbee, Horstman, and McDonnell studies
were conducted. However, the Adams studies were conducted when ozone levels were
below the level of the current standard.
Abt Associates Inc. 3-16 December 2006
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• Exposure-response relationship for all, active, and asthmatic school age children. The risk
assessment used the same exposure-response relationship, developed from data on "healthy"
subjects, for all, active, and asthmatic school age children. Based on evidence from
epidemiological studies, it is likely that moderate to severe asthmatic children would
experience greater lung function decrements than other children without these conditions.
This would tend to lead to the lung function decrements presented in this assessment for
asthmatic children being underestimated. One consideration working in the opposite
direction is that the activity patterns used in the exposure analysis to estimate exposures for
asthmatic children were not specific to asthmatic individuals. To the extent that asthmatic
children, especially those with moderate to severe asthma, are less active or spend less time
outdoors than other children of the same age, the estimates of their 8-hr exposures to 63
under moderate exertion may be overstated. This factor would tend to lead to overestimates
of risks for lung function decrements in the asthmatic school age population.
• Interaction between O^ and other pollutants. Because the controlled human exposure studies
used in the risk assessment involved only Os exposures, it was assumed that estimates of Os-
induced health responses would not be affected by the presence of other pollutants (e.g., SC>2,
PM2..5, etc). Some evidence exists that other pollutants may enhance the respiratory effects
associated with exposure to Os, but the evidence is not consistent across studies.
Variability refers to the heterogeneity in a population or parameter. Even if there is no
uncertainty surrounding inputs to the analysis, there may still be variability. For example, there
may be variability among exposure-response functions describing the relationship between 63
and lung function across urban areas. Similarly, there may be variability among C-R functions
describing the relationship between 63 and mortality across urban areas. This variability does
not imply uncertainty about the exposure-response or C-R function in any of the urban areas, but
only that these functions are different in the different locations, reflecting differences in the
populations and/or other factors that may affect the relationship between Os and the associated
health endpoint. In general, it is possible to have uncertainty but no variability (if, for instance,
there is a single parameter whose value is uncertain) or variability but little or no uncertainty (for
example, people's heights vary considerably but can be accurately measured with little
uncertainty).
The current controlled human exposure studies portion of the risk assessment
incorporates some of the variability in key inputs to the analysis by using location-specific inputs
for the exposure analysis (e.g., location-specific population data, air exchange rates, air quality
and temperature data). Although spatial variability in these key inputs across all U.S. locations
has not been fully characterized, variability across the selected locations is imbedded in the
analysis by using, to the extent possible, inputs specific to each urban area. Temporal variability
is more difficult to address, because the risk assessment focuses on some unspecified time in the
future. To minimize the degree to which values of inputs to the analysis may be different from
the values of those inputs at that unspecified time, we have used relatively recent inputs - in
particular, year 2002, 2003, and 2004 air quality data for the urban locations, and the most recent
available population data (from the 2000 Census). However, future changes in inputs have not
been predicted (e.g., future population levels).
Abt Associates Inc. 3-17 December 2006
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3.2 Results
Section 3.2.1 presents the results of the assessment of lung function decrement associated
with exposure to "as is" 63 concentrations (representing levels measured in 2004, 2003, and
2002 for all of the assessment locations) over PRB levels, based on controlled human exposure
studies. The corresponding results when Os concentrations just meet the current and alternative
8-hour daily maximum standards are presented in Section 3.2.2. Section 3.2.2.1 focuses on the
current standard and a set of seven alternative standards, based on adjusting 2004 and 2002 air
quality data. Section 3.2.2.2 focuses on the current standard and a (different) set of five
alternative standards, based on adjusting 2002, 2003, and 2004 air quality data for a subset of
five locations. Results for "as is" Os concentrations for each of the three years are also included
in the tables of results in Section 3.2.2.2. While all three lung function response measures were
developed and included in the risk assessment, based on CASAC advice and EPA staff
recommendations, the focus of the results discussed in this section is primarily on decrements in
FEVi >15% for all and active school age children and on decrements in FEVi >10% for
asthmatic school age children as an indicator of adverse lung function effects.
All estimated numbers (of children and of occurrences) were rounded to the nearest 1000,
and all percentages were rounded to one decimal place. These rounding conventions are not
intended to imply confidence in that level of precision, but rather to avoid the confusion that can
result when a greater amount of rounding is used.
"
3.2.1 Assessment of lung function decrement associated with exposure to "as is
concentrations in excess of policy relevant background levels
3.2.1.1 Results for all school age children
The estimated number and percent of occurrences of lung function decrement associated
with exposure to "as is" Os concentrations over PRB concentrations among all school age
children (ages 5-18) engaged in moderate exercise for at least one 8-hour period during the Os
season in 2004 is given in Table 3-4; the corresponding table for 2002 is Table 3-5. The
numbers and percents of these children estimated to experience at least one lung function
decrement associated with exposure to "as is" Os concentrations over PRB concentrations is
given in Tables 3-6 and 3-7, for 2004 and 2002, respectively. The corresponding results for
active children are given in Appendix C. Results for all three measures of lung function
decrement being considered in this analysis - decrements in FEVi >10%, >15%, and >20% — are
shown in each table.
The estimated number and percent of occurrences of lung function decrement, defined as
decrements in FEVi of >15%, associated with exposure to "as is" 63 concentrations over PRB
concentrations among all school age children (ages 5-18) engaged in moderate exercise for at
least one 8-hour period during the Os season is given in Table 3-8 for 2002, 2003, and 2004 Os
concentrations. The number and percent of these children estimated to experience at least one
decrement in FEVi >15% associated with exposure to "as is" 63 concentrations over PRB
concentrations is given, for 2002, 2003, and 2004 Os concentrations, in Table 3-9.
Abt Associates Inc. 3-18 December 2006
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Table 3-4. Estimated Number and Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function Response Associated with Exposure to "As Is" O3
Concentrations Over Background O3 Concentrations Among All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion, for
Location-Specific O3 Seasons: 2004 O3 Concentrations*
Location
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, DC
Response = Decrease in FEY., Greater Than or Equal to:
10%
Number (1000s)
800
(281 -1430)
547
(165-1002)
795
(188-1485)
312
(89 - 575)
512
(1 36 - 953)
827
(387-1361)
5432
(2471 -9181)
2418
(795 - 4360)
901
(338 - 1 588)
366
(1 35 - 647)
317
(92 - 579)
1091
(404 - 1 928)
Percent
1%
(0.3% - 1 .7%)
0.8%
(0.2% - 1 .4%)
0.6%
(0.2% - 1 .2%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .3%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .4%)
0.6%
(0.3% -1%)
1.1%
(0.5% - 1 .9%)
0.9%
(0.3% - 1 .6%)
1%
(0.4% - 1 .8%)
0.7%
(0.3% - 1 .3%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .3%)
1%
(0.4% - 1 .7%)
15%
Number (1000s)
191
(29 - 456)
125
(16-315)
167
(6 - 460)
69
(6 - 1 79)
111
(8 - 296)
230
(63 - 465)
1470
(393 - 3073)
563
(77 - 1 383)
218
(35 - 509)
86
(1 1 - 206)
69
(4-181)
268
(50 - 622)
Percent
0.2%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.6%)
20%
Number (1000s)
27
(4-117)
16
(2 - 77)
17
(0 - 1 06)
8
(0 - 43)
12
(0 - 69)
45
(12-1 40)
273
(62 - 892)
76
(8 - 347)
31
(3 - 1 32)
11
(1 - 52)
8
(0 - 43)
41
(7 - 1 65)
Percent
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
"Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) numbers of occurrences. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty
surrounding the O3 coefficient. Numbers are rounded to the nearest 1000. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
Abt Associates Inc.
3-19
December 2006
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Table 3-5. Estimated Number and Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function Response Associated with Exposure to "As Is" O3
Concentrations Over Background O3 Concentrations Among All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion, for
Location-Specific O3 Seasons: 2002 O3 Concentrations*
Location
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, DC
Response = Decrease in FEY., Greater Than or Equal to:
10%
Number (1000s)
1043
(489 - 1 754)
1046
(502 - 1 737)
1777
(862 - 2954)
814
(441 - 1 304)
1135
(569 - 1 875)
742
(349 - 1 21 5)
4625
(2054-7815)
4995
(2588 - 81 40)
1788
(984 - 2848)
538
(245 - 91 2)
623
(311-1 023)
1882
(959 - 3085)
Percent
1.3%
(0.6% -2.1%)
1.5%
(0.7% - 2.5%)
1.4%
(0.7% - 2.4%)
1.9%
(1 % - 3%)
1.6%
(0.8% - 2.7%)
0.5%
(0.3% - 0.9%)
1%
(0.4% - 1 .6%)
1.9%
(1%-3.1%)
2.1%
(1.1% -3.3%)
1.1%
(0.5% - 1 .8%)
1.5%
(0.7% - 2.4%)
1.7%
(0.9% - 2.8%)
15%
Number (1000s)
290
(88 - 593)
311
(115-611)
511
(171 -1015)
259
(110-473)
333
(119-649)
209
(62-419)
1265
(355 - 2642)
1522
(585 - 2885)
570
(239 - 1 037)
145
(39 - 305)
183
(65 - 356)
565
(209 - 1 086)
Percent
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.4%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.8%)
0.6%
(0.3% -1.1%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1.1%)
0.7%
(0.3% - 1 .2%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.4%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.5%
(0.2%- 1%)
20%
Number (1000s)
57
(14-1 76)
74
(27 - 1 97)
106
(29-310)
65
(24 -161)
71
(20 - 201 )
42
(12-1 28)
249
(69 - 781 )
361
(1 23 - 945)
146
(54 - 358)
27
(6 - 88)
40
(12-112)
132
(45 - 352)
Percent
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
"Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) numbers of occurrences. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty
surrounding the O3 coefficient. Numbers are rounded to the nearest 1000. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
Abt Associates Inc.
3-20
December 2006
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Table 3-6. Number and Percent of All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion Estimated to Experience At Least One
Lung Function Response Associated with Exposure to "As Is" O3 Concentrations Over Background O3 Concentrations, for
Location-Specific O3 Seasons: 2004 O3 Concentrations*
Location
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, DC
Response = Decrease in FEY., Greater Than or Equal to:
10%
Number (1000s)
89
(66 - 1 28)
76
(53-114)
93
(59 - 1 50)
37
(25 - 57)
65
(43 - 1 02)
129
(102-173)
483
(402-631)
316
(227 - 469)
105
(77 - 1 53)
31
(25 - 45)
34
(23 - 54)
144
(1 09 - 204)
Percent
9.4%
(7.1% -13.6%)
6.9%
(4.9% -10.4%)
4.8%
(3% - 7.7%)
6.2%
(4.2% - 9.6%)
5.8%
(3.9% - 9.2%)
1 1 .9%
(9.4% -15.9%)
13.2%
(11%- 17.2%)
7.6%
(5.5% - 1 1 .3%)
8.8%
(6.5% -12.9%)
7.5%
(6% -11%)
5.8%
(3.9% - 9.3%)
9.7%
(7.3% -13.8%)
15%
Number (1000s)
34
(19-51)
26
(12-42)
27
(6 - 49)
12
(5 - 20)
20
(7 - 35)
57
(37 - 79)
220
(1 49 - 298)
112
(55 - 1 76)
38
(21 - 59)
11
(6-17)
10
(3-18)
57
(33 - 84)
Percent
3.6%
(2% - 5.4%)
2.4%
(1.1% -3.8%)
1.4%
(0.3% - 2.5%)
2%
(0.8% - 3.3%)
1.8%
(0.6% -3.1%)
5.2%
(3.4% - 7.3%)
6%
(4.1% -8.1%)
2.7%
(1 .3% - 4.2%)
3.2%
(1 .8% - 4.9%)
2.7%
(1.4% -4.1%)
1.8%
(0.6% -3.1%)
3.8%
(2.2% - 5.6%)
20%
Number (1000s)
10
(3 - 20)
6
(2-15)
4
(0-15)
2
(0-7)
4
(0-11)
20
(10-37)
81
(39 - 1 43)
28
(8 - 64)
10
(3 - 22)
3
(1-6)
2
(0-6)
17
(6 - 34)
Percent
1%
(0.4% -2.1%)
0.6%
(0.1% -1.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.8%)
0.4%
(0.1% -1.1%)
0.3%
(0% - 1 %)
1.9%
(0.9% - 3.4%)
2.2%
(1.1% -3.9%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .6%)
0.8%
(0.2% - 1 .8%)
0.7%
(0.1% -1.5%)
0.3%
(0% - 1 %)
1.1%
(0.4% - 2.3%)
"Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) numbers of children. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty
surrounding the O3 coefficient. Numbers are rounded to the nearest 1000. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
Abt Associates Inc.
3-21
December 2006
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Table 3-7. Number and Percent of All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion Estimated to Experience At Least One
Lung Function Response Associated with Exposure to "As Is" O3 Concentrations Over Background O3 Concentrations, for
Location-Specific O3 Seasons: 2002 O3 Concentrations*
Location
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, DC
Response = Decrease in FEY., Greater Than or Equal to:
10%
Number (1000s)
132
(105- 173)
172
(1 40 - 21 9)
275
(220 - 359)
112
(93 - 1 38)
167
(1 35 - 21 5)
131
(104-175)
472
(394 - 61 2)
712
(582 - 895)
231
(1 92 - 283)
53
(44 - 69)
89
(72-113)
255
(209-321)
Percent
14%
(11.2%- 18.3%)
15.7%
(12.7% -19.9%)
14.1%
(11.3%- 18.4%)
18.9%
(15.6% -23.2%)
15.1%
(12.1%- 19.4%)
12%
(9.5% -16%)
12.9%
(10.7%- 16.7%)
17.2%
(14% -21 .6%)
19.5%
(16.2% -23.9%)
12.8%
(10.7% -16.6%)
15.3%
(12.4%- 19.5%)
17.2%
(14.1% -21 .6%)
15%
Number (1000s)
59
(40 - 81 )
84
(58-112)
123
(83 - 1 69)
56
(40 - 74)
76
(51 -103)
58
(38 - 80)
220
(1 50 - 297)
346
(244 - 462)
118
(85 - 1 55)
24
(16-32)
41
(28 - 56)
125
(88 - 1 67)
Percent
6.3%
(4.2% - 8.6%)
7.6%
(5.3% -10.3%)
6.3%
(4.2% - 8.7%)
9.4%
(6.7% -12.4%)
6.8%
(4.6% - 9.3%)
5.3%
(3.5% - 7.4%)
6%
(4.1% -8.1%)
8.3%
(5.9% - 1 1 .2%)
9.9%
(7.2% -13.1%)
5.8%
(3.9% - 7.9%)
7.1%
(4.8% - 9.6%)
8.4%
(5.9% - 1 1 .2%)
20%
Number (1000s)
21
(10-38)
35
(20 - 59)
44
(21 - 79)
24
(13-40)
27
(13-48)
21
(10-38)
86
(44 - 1 49)
144
(79 - 242)
53
(31 - 87)
9
(4-15)
16
(8 - 27)
52
(29 - 88)
Percent
2.3%
(1.1% -4.1%)
3.2%
(1 .8% - 5.4%)
2.3%
(1.1% -4%)
4%
(2.2% - 6.7%)
2.5%
(1 .2% - 4.4%)
1.9%
(0.9% - 3.5%)
2.3%
(1.2% -4.1%)
3.5%
(1 .9% - 5.8%)
4.4%
(2.6% - 7.3%)
2.1%
(1 % - 3.8%)
2.7%
(1 .4% - 4.7%)
3.5%
(2% - 5.9%)
"Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) numbers of children. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty
surrounding the O3 coefficient. Numbers are rounded to the nearest 1000. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
Abt Associates Inc.
3-22
December 2006
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Table 3-8. Estimated Number and Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function Response (Decrease in FEV1>=15%) Associated with Exposure to
"As Is" O3 Concentrations Over Background O3 Concentrations Among All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion, for
Location-Specific O3 Seasons: 2002, 2003, and 2004*
Location
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, DC
2002 Data
Number (1000s)
290
(88 - 593)
311
(115-611)
511
(171 -1015)
259
(110-473)
333
(119-649)
209
(62-419)
1265
(355 - 2642)
1522
(585 - 2885)
570
(239 - 1 037)
145
(39 - 305)
183
(65 - 356)
565
(209 - 1 086)
Percent
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.4%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.8%)
0.6%
(0.3%- 1.1%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.6%
(0.2%- 1.1%)
0.7%
(0.3% - 1 .2%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.4%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.5%
(0.2% -1%)
2003 Data
Number (1000s)
186
(32 - 431 )
149
(24 - 364)
265
(36 - 640)
116
(27 - 262)
226
(65 - 481 )
291
(96 - 567)
1700
(61 0 - 3277)
834
(237 - 1 769)
281
(77 - 594)
121
(26 - 265)
120
(26 - 266)
253
(60 - 568)
Percent
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.5%)
2004 Data
Number (1000s)
191
(29 - 456)
125
(16-315)
167
(6 - 460)
69
(6-179)
111
(8 - 296)
230
(63 - 465)
1470
(393 - 3073)
563
(77 - 1 383)
218
(35 - 509)
86
(1 1 - 206)
69
(4-181)
268
(50 - 622)
Percent
0.2%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.6%)
"Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) numbers of occurrences. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty
surrounding the O3 coefficient. Numbers are rounded to the nearest 1000. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
Abt Associates Inc.
3-23
December 2006
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Table 3-9. Number and Percent of All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion Estimated to Experience At Least One
Lung Function Response (Decrease in FEV1>=15%) Associated with Exposure to "As Is" O3 Concentrations Over Background O3
Concentrations, for Location-Specific O3 Seasons: 2002, 2003, and 2004*
Location
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, DC
2002 Data
Number (1000s)
59
(40 - 81 )
84
(58-112)
123
(83 - 1 69)
56
(40 - 74)
76
(51 -103)
58
(38 - 80)
220
(1 50 - 297)
346
(244 - 462)
118
(85 - 1 55)
24
(16-32)
41
(28 - 56)
125
(88 - 1 67)
Percent
6.3%
(4.2% - 8.6%)
7.6%
(5.3% -10.3%)
6.3%
(4.2% - 8.7%)
9.4%
(6.7% -12.4%)
6.8%
(4.6% - 9.3%)
5.3%
(3.5% - 7.4%)
6%
(4.1% -8.1%)
8.3%
(5.9% - 1 1 .2%)
9.9%
(7.2% -13.1%)
5.8%
(3.9% - 7.9%)
7.1%
(4.8% - 9.6%)
8.4%
(5.9% - 1 1 .2%)
2003 Data
Number (1000s)
34
(20 - 51 )
33
(17-51)
52
(25 - 81 )
28
(18-40)
62
(40 - 86)
72
(49 - 98)
309
(221 - 406)
223
(1 45 - 31 2)
68
(45 - 94)
19
(12-26)
26
(16-37)
69
(44 - 99)
Percent
3.6%
(2.1% -5.4%)
3%
(1 .6% - 4.6%)
2.6%
(1 .3% - 4.2%)
4.7%
(3% - 6.7%)
5.5%
(3.6% - 7.7%)
6.6%
(4.5% - 9%)
8.4%
(6% -11.1%)
5.4%
(3.5% - 7.5%)
5.7%
(3.8% - 8%)
4.5%
(2.9% - 6.3%)
4.4%
(2.7% - 6.3%)
4.7%
(2.9% - 6.6%)
2004 Data
Number (1000s)
34
(19-51)
26
(12-42)
27
(6 - 49)
12
(5 - 20)
20
(7 - 35)
57
(37 - 79)
220
(1 49 - 298)
112
(55 - 1 76)
38
(21 - 59)
11
(6-17)
10
(3-18)
57
(33 - 84)
Percent
3.6%
(2% - 5.4%)
2.4%
(1.1% -3.8%)
1.4%
(0.3% - 2.5%)
2%
(0.8% - 3.3%)
1.8%
(0.6% -3.1%)
5.2%
(3.4% - 7.3%)
6%
(4.1% -8.1%)
2.7%
(1 .3% - 4.2%)
3.2%
(1 .8% - 4.9%)
2.7%
(1.4% -4.1%)
1.8%
(0.6% -3.1%)
3.8%
(2.2% - 5.6%)
"Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) numbers of children. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty
surrounding the O3 coefficient. Numbers are rounded to the nearest 1000. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
Abt Associates Inc.
3-24
December 2006
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The estimated occurrence of lung function decrement among all school age children
exercising moderately while exposed to "as is" Os concentrations (Tables 3-4 and 3-5) varied
across the locations in each year for each of the three lung function response measures
(decrements in FEVi > 10%, > 15%, and > 20%). For all three lung function response measures,
there was a greater occurrence of lung function decrement in 2002 than in 2004 in all locations
except Los Angeles and Houston. In 2004, Los Angeles had the greatest percentage of child-
days with occurrences of lung function response for all three response definitions (decrements in
FEVi ^ 10%, > 15%, and > 20%). Not surprisingly, absolute numbers of occurrences of lung
function decrement were also largest in Los Angeles. They were smallest in Cleveland and St.
Louis for all three definitions of lung function response (at about 312,000 and 317,000,
respectively, for decrements in FEVi ^ 10%; about 69,000 for decrements in FEVi ^ 15%; and
about 8,000 for decrements in FEVi > 20%). In 2002, New York had the greatest absolute
numbers of occurrences of lung function response for all three definitions of response (at about
5.0 million for decrements in FEVi ^ 10%, 1.5 million for decrements in FEVi ^ 15%, and about
361,000 for decrements in FEVi ^ 20%). For all three lung function response measures
Sacramento had the smallest numbers of occurrence (at about 538,000; 145,000; and 27,000
occurrences for the three lung function response definitions, respectively). However,
Philadelphia had the greatest percentages of child-days with occurrences of lung function
response defined as decrements in FEVi ^ 10% and > 15%, at 2.1% and 0.7%, respectively. The
percentages of child-days with occurrences of decrements in FEVi ^ 20% rounded to 0.1% in
most locations.
The patterns were similar for occurrences of lung function decrement among active
school age children (Tables C-l and C-2). Once again, for all three lung function response
measures, there was a greater occurrence of lung function decrement in 2002 than in 2004 in all
locations except Los Angeles and Houston. In 2004, the percentage of child-days (for active
children) on which decrements of FEVi ^ 10% were estimated to occur ranged from 0.6% in
Houston to 1.3% in Los Angeles. The corresponding percentages for decrements of FEVi ^ 15%
rounded to 0.2% in most locations (except Chicago, where it was 0.1%, and Los Angeles and
Philadelphia, where it was 0.3%). For decrements of FEVi ^ 20%, the percentages rounded to
0.0% in all locations except Los Angeles, where it rounded to 0.1%. The absolute numbers of
occurrences were greatest in Los Angeles for all three lung function response measures. In 2002,
the percentage of child-days (for active children) on which decrements of FEVi ^ 10% were
estimated to occur ranged from 0.6% in Houston to 2.1% in Philadelphia; the corresponding
percentages for decrements of FEVi ^ 15% ranged from 0.2% in Houston to 0.7% in
Philadelphia; and for decrements of FEVi ^ 20%, the percentages rounded to 0.1% in most
locations.
When we considered the number of children experiencing at least one lung function
response during the 63 season (Tables 3-6 and C-3 for 2004, and Tables 3-7 and C-4 for 2002),
the patterns were similar to those observed when occurrence of lung function responses was
estimated. In 2004, among all school age children and among active school age children, the
percentages experiencing at least one lung function response were largest in Los Angeles and
smallest in Chicago - for each of the three lung function response measures. For example, 6.0%
of all school age children and 6.4% of active school age children in Los Angeles experienced at
Abt Associates Inc. 3-25 December 2006
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least one decrement in FEVi > 15% during the Os season. The corresponding percentages for
Chicago were 1.4% and 1.4% for all school age and active school age children, respectively. In
2002, among all school age children and among active school age children, the percentages
experiencing at least one lung function response were largest in Philadelphia and smallest in
Houston - for each of the three lung function response measures. For example, 9.9% of all
school age children and 10.3% of active school age children in Philadelphia experienced at least
one decrement in FEVi ^ 15% during the ozone season. The corresponding percentages for
Houston for all school age and active school age children were 5.3% and 5.3%, respectively.
The patterns of numbers of occurrences of lung function response defined as decrements
in FEVi > 15% across all three years (2002, 2003, and 2004) shown in Table 3-8 are similar in
most locations. In all locations except Houston and Los Angeles, the number of occurrences is
greatest in 2002, and the number of occurrences in 2003 either falls between those of 2004 and
2002 or is slightly lower than in 2004. In Houston and Los Angeles the numbers of occurrences
are lowest in 2002 and highest in 2003. The patterns for the numbers of children with at least
one decrement in FEVi ^ 15%, shown in Table 3-9, are similar. In all locations except Houston
and Los Angeles, the number of children with at least one occurrence decreases from 2002 to
2003 to 2004 (in Atlanta, the number is the same in 2003 and 2004). In Houston and Los
Angeles the numbers of occurrences are highest in 2003 and the same or almost the same in 2002
and 2004.
3.2.1.2 Results for asthmatic school age children
The estimated number and percent of occurrences of lung function response, defined as a
change in FEVi ^ 10%, associated with exposure to "as is" Os concentrations above PRB
concentrations among asthmatic school age children (ages 5-18) engaged in moderate exercise
for at least one 8-hour period during the 63 season, is given in Table 3-10, for 2002, 2003, and
2004 Os concentrations. The number and percent of these children estimated to experience at
least one decrement in FEVi of >10% associated with exposure to "as is" Os concentrations over
PRB concentrations is given, for 2002, 2003, and 2004 Os concentrations, in Table 3-11.
The numbers of occurrences of lung function response, defined as decrements in FEVi ^
10%, among asthmatic children follow the same patterns across the three years (2002, 2003, and
2004) as for all children (see Table 3-8). In all locations except Houston and Los Angeles, the
number of occurrences is greatest in 2002, and the number of occurrences in 2003 either falls
between those of 2004 and 2002 or is slightly lower than in 2004. In Houston and Los Angeles
the numbers of occurrences are lowest in 2002 and highest in 2003. Similarly, the numbers of
asthmatic children with at least one lung function response, defined as a change in FEVi ^ 10%,
follow the same patterns across the three years as for all children, for changes in FEVi ^ 15%
(see Table 3-9). In all locations except Houston and Los Angeles, the number of asthmatic
children with at least one occurrence decreases from 2002 to 2003 to 2004 (in Atlanta, the
number is the same in 2003 and 2004). In Houston and Los Angeles the numbers of occurrences
are highest in 2003 and the same or almost the same in 2002 and 2004.
Abt Associates Inc. 3-26 December 2006
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Table 3-10. Estimated Number and Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function Response (Decrease in FEV1>=10%) Associated with Exposure to
"As Is" O3 Concentrations Over Background O3 Concentrations Among Asthmatic Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion, for
Location-Specific O3 Seasons: 2002, 2003, and 2004*
Location
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, DC
2002 Data
Number (1000s)
145
(68 - 244)
186
(90 - 308)
257
(1 25 - 427)
115
(62 - 1 84)
159
(79 - 262)
96
(45 - 1 58)
561
(255 - 942)
834
(435 - 1 356)
325
(1 80 - 51 6)
69
(32-116)
86
(43 - 1 41 )
261
(1 33 - 428)
Percent
1.3%
(0.6% - 2.2%)
1.5%
(0.7% - 2.5%)
1.5%
(0.7% - 2.4%)
1.9%
(1%-3.1%)
1.6%
(0.8% - 2.7%)
0.5%
(0.3% - 0.9%)
1%
(0.5% - 1 .7%)
1.9%
(1%-3.1%)
2.1%
(1 .2% - 3.4%)
1.1%
(0.5% - 1 .9%)
1.5%
(0.7% - 2.4%)
1.7%
(0.9% - 2.8%)
2003 Data
Number (1000s)
106
(40 - 1 87)
111
(37 - 201 )
163
(56 - 291 )
64
(24-112)
118
(50 - 202)
131
(64-213)
690
(352 - 1 1 1 9)
506
(215-868)
188
(82 - 320)
60
(26 - 1 03)
64
(26-112)
137
(52 - 240)
Percent
1%
(0.4% - 1 .7%)
0.9%
(0.3% - 1 .7%)
0.9%
(0.3% - 1 .6%)
1.1%
(0.4% - 1 .9%)
1.2%
(0.5% -2.1%)
0.7%
(0.4% - 1 .2%)
1.2%
(0.6% - 2%)
1.2%
(0.5% - 2%)
1.2%
(0.5% -2.1%)
1%
(0.4% - 1 .6%)
1.1%
(0.5% - 1 .9%)
0.9%
(0.3% - 1 .6%)
2004 Data
Number (1000s)
109
(38 - 1 96)
96
(29 - 1 76)
114
(27-214)
44
(13-82)
73
(20 - 1 35)
110
(51 -181)
660
(308-1108)
399
(1 31 - 720)
165
(63 - 289)
45
(16-80)
44
(13-80)
153
(57 - 270)
Percent
1%
(0.3% - 1 .8%)
0.8%
(0.2% - 1 .5%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .2%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .4%)
0.8%
(0.2% - 1 .4%)
0.6%
(0.3%- 1%)
1.2%
(0.6% - 2%)
0.9%
(0.3% - 1 .7%)
1.1%
(0.4% - 1 .9%)
0.7%
(0.3% - 1 .3%)
0.8%
(0.2% - 1 .4%)
1%
(0.4% - 1 .8%)
"Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) numbers of occurrences. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty
surrounding the O3 coefficient. Numbers are rounded to the nearest 1000. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
Abt Associates Inc.
3-27
December 2006
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Table 3-11. Number and Percent of Asthmatic Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion Estimated to Experience At Least One
Lung Function Response (Decrease in FEV1>=10%) Associated with Exposure to "As Is" O3 Concentrations Over Background O3
Concentrations, for Location-Specific O3 Seasons: 2002, 2003, and 2004*
Location
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, DC
2002 Data
Number (1000s)
18
(14-23)
30
(24 - 38)
40
(32 - 53)
17
(14-20)
24
(19-31)
17
(13-23)
61
(51 - 79)
118
(97 - 1 47)
40
(33 - 49)
7
(6-9)
12
(10-16)
34
(28 - 42)
Percent
15.2%
(12.2% -19.8%)
16.4%
(13.3% -20.7%)
14.5%
(11. 6% -18.9%)
18.7%
(15.4% -23.1%)
14.9%
(11. 9% -19.2%)
12.5%
(9.9% -16.7%)
13.3%
(11.1% -17.2%)
18.3%
(15.1% -22.9%)
20.8%
(17.3% -25.3%)
13%
(10.9%- 16.9%)
15%
(12.1% -19.3%)
18.2%
(15% -22.7%)
2003 Data
Number (1000s)
12
(9-17)
15
(1 1 - 22)
21
(15-32)
9
(7-13)
20
(16-27)
20
(17-26)
77
(65 - 95)
81
(64 - 1 09)
27
(21 - 35)
6
(5-8)
9
(7-12)
21
(16-28)
Percent
10.1%
(7.6% -14.5%)
8.4%
(6.1% -12.2%)
7.6%
(5.5% - 1 1 .5%)
10.6%
(8.1% -14.5%)
12.3%
(9.6% -16.4%)
15.1%
(12.3%- 19.5%)
16.8%
(14.3% -20.9%)
12.7%
(10%- 17%)
13.8%
(11% -18.2%)
11%
(9.2% -14.9%)
10.6%
(8.1% -14.8%)
1 1 .2%
(8.6% -15.2%)
2004 Data
Number (1000s)
12
(9-17)
13
(9 - 20)
14
(9 - 22)
5
(4-8)
10
(6-15)
17
(14-23)
62
(52 - 81 )
51
(37 - 76)
18
(14-27)
4
(3-6)
5
(3-8)
19
(15-27)
Percent
9.9%
(7.4% -14.2%)
7.2%
(5.1% -10.8%)
4.9%
(3.1% -7.8%)
6.2%
(4.2% - 9.6%)
5.9%
(4% - 9.3%)
12.6%
(10%- 16.8%)
13.6%
(11. 4% -17.7%)
8%
(5.8% - 1 1 .8%)
9.5%
(7.1% -13.8%)
7.5%
(5.9% -11%)
5.9%
(3.9% - 9.4%)
10.5%
(7.9% -14.7%)
"Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) numbers of children. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty
surrounding the O3 coefficient. Numbers are rounded to the nearest 1000. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
Abt Associates Inc.
3-28
December 2006
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3.2.2 Assessment of lung function decrement associated with exposure to Os
concentrations that just meet the current and alternative daily maximum 8-hour
standards
In this section, we present results for two sets of 8-hr average Os standards. An 8-hr
average standard, denoted m/n, is characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily
maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 - 0.084 ppm, 4l daily maximum 8-
hr average. The 3rd, 4th, and 5th daily maximum standards, denoted m/n, for n = 3, 4, and 5,
require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the
specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
3.2.2.1 Results for all locations for the current standard and the original set of seven
alternative standards, based on 2002 and 2004 air quality data
The estimated number of occurrences of lung function response associated with exposure to
Os concentrations that just meet the current and alternative daily maximum 8-hour standards
among all school age children (ages 5-18) engaged in moderate exercise for at least one 8-hour
period during the 63 season, is given in Table 3-12, for estimates based on 2004 63
concentrations, and Table 3-13, for estimates based on 2002 Os concentrations. The
corresponding estimated percents of occurrences are given in Tables 3-14 and 3-15, for estimates
based on 2004 and 2002 63 concentrations, respectively. The numbers of these children
estimated to experience at least one lung function response associated with exposure to 63
concentrations that just meet the current and alternative standards are given in Tables 3-16 and 3-
17, for estimates based on 2004 and 2002 Os concentrations, respectively. The corresponding
estimated percents of children are given in Tables 3-18 and 3-19. The corresponding results for
active school age children are given in Tables C-5 through C-12 in Appendix C. Results for all
three measures of lung function response being considered in this analysis - decrements in FEVi
of >10%, >15%, and >20% - are shown in each table.
The percent reductions in numbers of occurrences and in numbers of school age children
experiencing at least one occurrence of lung function response when Os concentrations are
reduced from those just meeting the current standard to those that would just meet each
alternative standard are summarized for all school age children in Figures 3-7 through 3-10
below. Percent reductions are calculated as the number (e.g., of occurrences) at the current
standard minus the number at the alternative standard divided by the number at the current
standard, so that a decrease in number results in a positive percent. Each figure also shows the
percent reduction when 63 concentrations are changed from those just meeting the current
standard to "as is" concentrations in the relevant year of air quality (e.g., when 63 concentrations
just meeting the current and alternative standards were based on adjusting 2004 Os
concentrations, 2004 "as is" Os concentrations were used). Because these "as is" Os
concentrations are higher than the 63 concentrations just meeting the current standard, these
percent reductions are negative. Figure 3-7 shows the percent reductions in the aggregate
numbers (across all locations) of occurrences of lung function response, for each of the three
definitions of response, based on 2004 data (Figure 3-7a) and 2002 data (Figure 3-7b). Figure 3-
Abt Associates Inc. 3-29 December 2006
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8 shows the percent reductions of occurrences of decrement in FEVi >15%, separately for each
location, based on 2004 data (Figure 3-8a) and 2002 data (Figure 3-8b). Figure 3-9 shows the
percent reductions in the aggregate numbers (across all locations) of all children experiencing at
least one occurrence of lung function response, for each of the three definitions of response,
based on 2004 data (Figure 3-9a) and 2002 data (Figure 3-9b). Finally, Figure 3-10 shows the
percent reductions of numbers of all children experiencing at least one occurrence of decrement
in FEVi >15%, separately for each location, based on 2004 data (Figure 3-10a) and 2002 data
(Figure 3-10b). The corresponding figures for active school age children (ages 5-18) are given in
Appendix C.
Abt Associates Inc. 3-30 December 2006
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Table 3-12. Estimated Number of Occurrences of Lung Function Response Associated with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet
the Current and Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards Among All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion, for
Location-Specific O3 Seasons: Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations*
Location
Number of Occurrences (in 1000s) of Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3
Standards**
0.084/4***
0.084/3
0.080/4
0.074/5
0.074/4
0.074/3
0.070/4
0.064/4
Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 10%
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, DC
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
598
(166-1102)
408
(94 - 773)
555
(86-1071)
212
(41 - 407)
386
(77 - 739)
457
(1 70 - 775)
1802
(381 -3361)
1452
(280-2771)
602
(162-1107)
198
(48 - 367)
257
(63 - 478)
750
(205 - 1 386)
587
(160-1084)
368
(75 - 704)
517
(72 - 1 004)
195
(33 - 377)
353
(62 - 681 )
411
(1 45 - 698)
1721
(349 - 3220)
1374
(244 - 2639)
556
(138-1031)
186
(43 - 345)
237
(53 - 443)
671
(163-1256)
532
(1 31 - 994)
363
(72 - 696)
487
(62 - 952)
189
(31 - 365)
343
(58 - 665)
393
(1 36 - 669)
1566
(292 - 2947)
1293
(21 0 - 2498)
535
(1 27 - 995)
171
(37 - 320)
225
(48 - 423)
665
(160-1246)
472
(1 02 - 892)
347
(65 - 670)
437
(46 - 862)
162
(21 -318)
331
(53 - 644)
319
(100-541)
1156
(173-2198)
1054
(118-2081)
456
(89 - 861 )
143
(26 - 270)
191
(33 - 363)
587
(122-1114)
444
(89 - 844)
302
(46 - 591 )
395
(34 - 787)
155
(1 9 - 306)
285
(36 - 563)
305
(93-518)
1106
(161 -2106)
1081
(128-2129)
443
(83 - 839)
135
(23 - 256)
182
(30 - 348)
551
(106-1052)
439
(87 - 836)
279
(38 - 550)
370
(28-741)
145
(1 5 - 288)
263
(29 - 523)
273
(80 - 462)
1012
(140- 1929)
1035
(112-2046)
415
(71 - 790)
128
(21 - 243)
169
(25 - 325)
501
(84 - 966)
390
(66 - 752)
266
(33 - 527)
337
(20 - 680)
136
(13-271)
249
(25 - 498)
245
(70 - 41 2)
793
(94- 1514)
953
(87-1901)
387
(59 - 743)
112
(16-216)
156
(21 - 302)
484
(77 - 936)
318
(40 - 626)
216
(1 7 - 437)
261
(7 - 537)
109
(6-221)
200
(1 2 - 408)
137
(38 - 209)
375
(31 - 694)
747
(38-1523)
314
(33 - 61 3)
79
(8 - 1 55)
121
(1 0 - 240)
390
(43-771)
Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 15%
131
(1 0 - 344)
86
(5 - 238)
110
(1 - 328)
43
(1 -125)
79
(2 - 227)
110
(1 3 - 253)
371
(6-1044)
128
(9 - 338)
76
(3-216)
102
(0 - 307)
39
(0-115)
71
(1 - 208)
97
(9 - 227)
353
(5 - 999)
113
(6 - 308)
74
(2-213)
95
(0 - 291 )
37
(0-112)
68
(1 - 203)
92
(7-217)
317
(3-913)
98
(3 - 275)
70
(2 - 205)
84
(0 - 262)
31
(0 - 97)
66
(1 - 1 96)
73
(4-176)
230
(1 - 680)
91
(2 - 260)
59
(1 - 1 80)
75
(0 - 239)
30
(0 - 93)
55
(0-171)
69
(3 - 1 68)
220
(1 -651)
90
(2 - 257)
54
(0 - 1 67)
70
(0 - 224)
28
(0 - 87)
50
(0 - 1 58)
61
(2-151)
201
(0 - 597)
78
(1 - 230)
51
(0 - 1 60)
63
(0 - 205)
26
(0 - 82)
47
(0 - 1 50)
55
(1 - 1 35)
156
(0 - 469)
62
(0-191)
40
(0-131)
48
(0-161)
20
(0 - 66)
37
(0 - 1 22)
32
(0 - 73)
75
(0 - 220)
Abt Associates Inc.
3-31
December 2006
-------
Location
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, DC
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, DC
Number of Occurrences (in 1000s) of Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3
Standards**
0.084/4***
296
(7 - 851 )
130
(6 - 345)
41
(1 -114)
54
(1 -148)
164
(1 2 - 432)
0.084/3
277
(5 - 809)
118
(4 - 320)
38
(0 - 1 07)
49
(1 -137)
142
(7 - 389)
0.080/4
258
(3 - 765)
112
(3 - 308)
35
(0 - 99)
46
(0-131)
141
(6 - 386)
0.074/5
203
(0 - 633)
93
(1 - 266)
29
(0 - 83)
38
(0-112)
121
(3 - 343)
0.074/4
209
(0 - 648)
90
(1 - 259)
27
(0 - 79)
36
(0 - 1 07)
112
(2 - 323)
0.074/3
199
(0 - 622)
83
(0 - 243)
25
(0 - 75)
33
(0 - 1 00)
100
(1 - 296)
0.070/4
181
(0 - 576)
77
(0 - 228)
22
(0 - 66)
30
(0 - 93)
96
(1 - 286)
0.064/4
139
(0 - 458)
61
(0 - 1 88)
15
(0 - 48)
23
(0 - 73)
75
(0 - 234)
Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 20%
15
(1 - 82)
9
(0 - 54)
9
(0-71)
4
(0 - 28)
7
(0 - 50)
15
(1 - 66)
35
(0 - 236)
27
(0 - 1 89)
14
(0-81)
4
(0 - 26)
5
(0 - 34)
19
(1 - 1 02)
15
(1 - 80)
7
(0 - 48)
8
(0 - 66)
3
(0 - 25)
6
(0 - 46)
12
(1 - 59)
33
(0 - 225)
25
(0 - 1 78)
12
(0 - 74)
4
(0 - 24)
5
(0-31)
15
(0 - 90)
12
(0-71)
7
(0 - 47)
8
(0 - 62)
3
(0 - 24)
6
(0 - 44)
11
(0 - 56)
28
(0 - 203)
22
(0 - 1 66)
11
(0-71)
3
(0 - 22)
4
(0 - 29)
14
(0 - 89)
9
(0 - 62)
7
(0 - 45)
7
(0 - 55)
3
(0 - 20)
6
(0 - 42)
8
(0 - 44)
19
(0 - 1 48)
16
(0 - 1 33)
8
(0 - 59)
2
(0-18)
3
(0 - 25)
11
(0 - 77)
9
(0 - 58)
5
(0 - 39)
6
(0 - 50)
2
(0 - 20)
4
(0 - 36)
8
(0 - 42)
18
(0 - 1 42)
17
(0 - 1 37)
8
(0 - 57)
2
(0-17)
3
(0 - 23)
10
(0 - 72)
8
(0 - 57)
4
(0 - 35)
5
(0 - 46)
2
(0-18)
4
(0 - 33)
7
(0 - 37)
17
(0 - 1 29)
16
(0 - 1 30)
7
(0 - 53)
2
(0-16)
3
(0 - 22)
9
(0 - 64)
7
(0 - 50)
4
(0 - 34)
5
(0 - 42)
2
(0-17)
4
(0-31)
6
(0 - 34)
13
(0-101)
14
(0-119)
6
(0 - 50)
2
(0-14)
2
(0 - 20)
8
(0 - 62)
5
(0 - 40)
3
(0 - 27)
3
(0 - 32)
1
(0-13)
3
(0 - 25)
3
(0-19)
6
(0 - 48)
10
(0 - 93)
5
(0 - 40)
1
(0-10)
2
(0-15)
6
(0 - 49)
"Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) numbers of occurrences. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty
surrounding the O3 coefficient.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest 1000.
"These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr
average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
Abt Associates Inc.
3-32
December 2006
-------
Table 3-13. Estimated Number of Occurrences of Lung Function Response Associated with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet
the Current and Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards Among All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion, for
Location-Specific O3 Seasons: Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations*
Location
Number of Occurrences (in 1000s) of Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3
Standards**
0.084/4***
0.084/3
0.080/4
0.074/5
0.074/4
0.074/3
0.070/4
0.064/4
Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 10%
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, DC
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
782
(312-1 365)
795
(326 - 1 379)
1286
(521 - 2239)
564
(254 - 962)
864
(374 - 1 490)
404
(1 53 - 679)
1504
(336 - 2792)
3053
(1 1 84 - 5374)
1232
(565 - 2082)
315
(1 06 - 566)
515
(235 - 869)
1327
(560 - 2293)
770
(304 - 1 348)
718
(273 - 1 267)
1202
(465-2111)
513
(217-889)
782
(317-1 369)
362
(131 -610)
1447
(31 4 - 2692)
2879
(1070-5107)
1132
(493 - 1 939)
296
(95 - 534)
476
(208 - 81 4)
1190
(465 - 2090)
693
(254 - 1 230)
711
(268 - 1 256)
1140
(424 - 201 8)
502
(209 - 872)
764
(304 - 1 342)
346
(1 24 - 583)
1266
(255 - 2364)
2730
(971 - 4878)
1100
(470-1891)
279
(86 - 506)
455
(1 93 - 782)
1183
(460 - 2078)
621
(210-1115)
679
(247 - 1 208)
1038
(360 - 1 858)
433
(1 62 - 770)
743
(291 -1311)
278
(91 - 467)
863
(149-1613)
2237
(663 - 4097)
958
(371 -1680)
238
(65 - 439)
396
(1 54 - 695)
1055
(377 - 1 884)
580
(185-1050)
594
(193-1079)
946
(303-1711)
417
(1 51 - 744)
633
(218-11 40)
264
(85 - 443)
851
(146-1590)
2304
(700 - 4205)
925
(349-1631)
229
(60 - 423)
374
(1 39 - 661 )
994
(338-1788)
577
(184- 1045)
550
(166-1008)
895
(273- 1629)
383
(1 29 - 692)
578
(184- 1052)
239
(74 - 398)
796
(134- 1486)
2189
(633-4019)
860
(306- 1529)
216
(54 - 402)
350
(1 24 - 623)
908
(285- 1651)
510
(145-935)
527
(152-972)
827
(233- 1517)
367
(1 1 9 - 666)
553
(169- 1012)
209
(64 - 343)
575
(90- 1058)
2044
(548 - 3783)
818
(279- 1464)
199
(46-371)
326
(109-586)
882
(269- 1610)
415
(95 - 777)
433
(99 - 820)
670
(149- 1255)
300
(79 - 557)
450
(110-841)
106
(35-150)
206
(35 - 323)
1654
(350 - 31 25)
677
(192- 1237)
156
(29 - 296)
264
(73 - 484)
728
(182- 1358)
Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 15%
196
(39 - 442)
210
(56 - 458)
325
(68 - 727)
153
(43 - 320)
226
(56 - 488)
99
(1 3 - 223)
315
(9 - 869)
192
(37 - 435)
181
(40-412)
297
(54 - 679)
133
(32 - 290)
197
(41 - 441 )
87
(9 - 1 99)
302
(8 - 837)
166
(25 - 392)
179
(39 - 408)
276
(45 - 644)
129
(30 - 284)
190
(38 - 431 )
82
(8-191)
261
(5 - 735)
143
(1 6 - 352)
167
(34 - 389)
243
(31 - 588)
105
(1 8 - 245)
183
(34 - 420)
64
(4 - 1 53)
175
(1 - 502)
131
(1 2 - 330)
139
(20 - 341 )
215
(21 - 537)
99
(1 5 - 236)
147
(1 8 - 359)
61
(3-145)
173
(1 - 496)
130
(1 2 - 328)
124
(14-316)
200
(16-510)
88
(11 -217)
130
(1 2 - 328)
55
(2-131)
161
(1 - 463)
111
(6 - 291 )
117
(1 2 - 304)
180
(1 1 - 472)
83
(9 - 208)
123
(9-315)
48
(1 -114)
117
(0 - 333)
86
(1 - 240)
91
(4 - 252)
139
(2 - 388)
64
(2 - 1 72)
94
(2 - 259)
26
(0 - 54)
46
(0-112)
Abt Associates Inc.
3-33
December 2006
-------
Location
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, DC
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, DC
Number of Occurrences (in 1000s) of Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3
Standards**
0.084/4***
753
(140-1727)
335
(92 - 696)
72
(8 - 1 79)
141
(40 - 292)
345
(82 - 752)
0.084/3
695
(113-1 630)
297
(71 - 638)
67
(6 - 1 68)
126
(32 - 269)
296
(57 - 674)
0.080/4
646
(91 -1547)
284
(64-619)
62
(5 - 1 59)
118
(28 - 257)
293
(55 - 670)
0.074/5
494
(35 - 1 277)
234
(39 - 539)
51
(2 - 1 37)
98
(1 8 - 224)
250
(36 - 599)
0.074/4
513
(40-1314)
223
(34 - 521 )
49
(2 - 1 32)
91
(15-211)
231
(28 - 564)
0.074/3
480
(31 -1252)
202
(25 - 485)
46
(1 -125)
83
(11-1 98)
205
(19-517)
0.070/4
439
(20 - 1 1 74)
189
(20 - 462)
41
(1 -115)
75
(9 - 1 85)
197
(1 6 - 503)
0.064/4
339
(4 - 962)
147
(7 - 386)
31
(0-91)
57
(2 - 1 50)
154
(4 - 420)
Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 20%
30
(4-118)
39
(10-1 30)
51
(7 - 1 95)
27
(5-91)
37
(5 - 1 34)
14
(1 - 60)
31
(0 - 1 99)
112
(1 3 - 455)
61
(13-201)
9
(1 - 44)
26
(6 - 84)
58
(1 1 - 208)
29
(4-116)
30
(6-111)
44
(5 - 1 79)
22
(3 - 79)
30
(3-117)
11
(1 - 52)
29
(0-191)
98
(9 - 421 )
50
(8-177)
8
(0-41)
22
(4 - 75)
45
(6 - 1 79)
23
(2-101)
29
(6-110)
38
(3 - 1 66)
20
(3 - 77)
28
(2-114)
10
(1 - 50)
24
(0 - 1 66)
86
(6 - 392)
46
(7-170)
7
(0 - 38)
19
(3-71)
44
(6-177)
18
(1 - 88)
26
(4 - 1 03)
31
(1 -148)
15
(1 - 63)
26
(2-110)
7
(0 - 39)
15
(0-112)
56
(1 - 306)
33
(3-141)
5
(0 - 32)
14
(1 - 59)
34
(3 - 1 52)
16
(1 -81)
19
(2 - 85)
26
(1 - 1 32)
13
(1 - 60)
18
(0 - 89)
7
(0 - 37)
15
(0-110)
59
(1 -317)
31
(2 - 1 34)
5
(0-31)
13
(1 - 55)
30
(2-141)
16
(1 - 80)
15
(1 - 77)
23
(0 - 1 23)
11
(0 - 54)
15
(0 - 80)
6
(0 - 33)
14
(0 - 1 03)
53
(1 - 298)
26
(1 - 1 23)
5
(0 - 29)
11
(1 - 50)
24
(1 - 1 26)
12
(0 - 69)
14
(1 - 73)
20
(0-112)
10
(0-51)
14
(0 - 76)
5
(0 - 29)
10
(0 - 75)
46
(0 - 275)
23
(1 -115)
4
(0 - 26)
9
(0 - 46)
23
(1 - 1 22)
8
(0 - 55)
9
(0 - 57)
13
(0 - 88)
7
(0 - 40)
9
(0 - 59)
3
(0-15)
4
(0 - 28)
32
(0-216)
16
(0 - 92)
3
(0 - 20)
6
(0 - 36)
15
(0 - 97)
"Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) numbers of occurrences. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty
surrounding the O3 coefficient.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest 1000.
"These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr
average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
Abt Associates Inc.
3-34
December 2006
-------
Table 3-14. Estimated Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function Response Associated with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet
the Current and Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards Among All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion, for
Location-Specific O3 Seasons: Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations*
Location
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, DC
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
0.084/3
0.080/4
0.074/5
0.074/4
0.074/3
0.070/4
0.064/4
Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 10%
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .3%)
0.6%
(0.1% -1.1%)
0.5%
(0.1% -0.9%)
0.5%
(0.1% -0.9%)
0.6%
(0.1%- 1.1%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.5%
(0.1%-1%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .3%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.6%
(0.1%- 1.1%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .3%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .3%)
0.5%
(0.1%-1%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.8%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.9%)
0.5%
(0.1%- 1%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.5%
(0.1%-1%)
0.6%
(0.2% - 1 .2%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.6%
(0.1%- 1%)
0.6%
(0.1%- 1.1%)
0.6%
(0.2% - 1 .2%)
0.5%
(0.1%-1%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.8%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.8%)
0.5%
(0.1% -0.9%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.5%
(0.1% -0.9%)
0.6%
(0.1%- 1.1%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.5%
(0.1%- 1%)
0.6%
(0.1%- 1.1%)
0.6%
(0.1%- 1.1%)
0.5%
(0.1%-1%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.5%
(0.1% -0.9%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.8%)
0.5%
(0.1%- 1%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.8%)
0.5%
(0.1%- 1%)
0.5%
(0.1%- 1%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.9%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.8%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.8%)
0.5%
(0.1%- 1%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.8%)
0.5%
(0.1%- 1%)
0.5%
(0.1%- 1%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.8%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.8%)
0.5%
(0.1% -0.9%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.8%)
0.5%
(0.1% -0.9%)
0.5%
(0.1% -0.9%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.8%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.9%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.8%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.8%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.7%)
Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 15%
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
Abt Associates Inc.
3-35
December 2006
-------
Location
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, DC
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, DC
Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.084/3
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.080/4
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.074/5
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.074/4
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.074/3
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.070/4
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.064/4
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 20%
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
"Percents are median (0.5 fractile) percents of occurrences. Percents in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty
surrounding the O3 coefficient.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr
average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
Abt Associates Inc.
3-36
December 2006
-------
Table 3-15. Estimated Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function Response Associated with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet
the Current and Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards Among All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion, for
Location-Specific O3 Seasons: Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations*
Location
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, DC
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
0.084/3
0.080/4
0.074/5
0.074/4
0.074/3
0.070/4
0.064/4
Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 10%
1%
(0.4% - 1 .7%)
1.1%
(0.5% - 2%)
1%
(0.4% - 1 .8%)
1.3%
(0.6% - 2.2%)
1.2%
(0.5% -2.1%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
1.1%
(0.4% - 2%)
1.4%
(0.6% - 2.4%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1.1%)
1.2%
(0.5% - 2%)
1.2%
(0.5% -2.1%)
0.9%
(0.4% - 1 .6%)
1%
(0.4% - 1 .8%)
1%
(0.4% - 1 .7%)
1.2%
(0.5% - 2%)
1.1%
(0.5% - 2%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
1.1%
(0.4% - 1 .9%)
1.3%
(0.6% - 2.2%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1.1%)
1.1%
(0.5% - 1 .9%)
1.1%
(0.4% - 1 .9%)
0.8%
(0.3% - 1 .5%)
1%
(0.4% - 1 .8%)
0.9%
(0.3% - 1 .6%)
1.2%
(0.5% - 2%)
1.1%
(0.4% - 1 .9%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
1%
(0.4% - 1 .8%)
1.3%
(0.5% - 2.2%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1%)
1.1%
(0.5% - 1 .8%)
1.1%
(0.4% - 1 .9%)
0.8%
(0.3% - 1 .4%)
1%
(0.4% - 1 .7%)
0.8%
(0.3% - 1 .5%)
1%
(0.4% - 1 .8%)
1.1%
(0.4% - 1 .9%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.8%
(0.2% - 1 .5%)
1.1%
(0.4% - 1 .9%)
0.5%
(0.1% -0.9%)
0.9%
(0.4% - 1 .6%)
1%
(0.3% - 1 .7%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .3%)
0.9%
(0.3% - 1 .5%)
0.8%
(0.2% - 1 .4%)
1%
(0.3% - 1 .7%)
0.9%
(0.3% - 1 .6%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.9%
(0.3% - 1 .6%)
1.1%
(0.4% - 1 .9%)
0.5%
(0.1% -0.8%)
0.9%
(0.3% - 1 .5%)
0.9%
(0.3% - 1 .6%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .3%)
0.8%
(0.2% - 1 .4%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .3%)
0.9%
(0.3% - 1 .6%)
0.8%
(0.3% - 1 .5%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.8%
(0.2% - 1 .5%)
1%
(0.4% - 1 .8%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.8%)
0.8%
(0.3% - 1 .5%)
0.8%
(0.3% - 1 .5%)
0.6%
(0.2%- 1.1%)
0.8%
(0.2% - 1 .4%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .2%)
0.8%
(0.3% - 1 .5%)
0.8%
(0.2% - 1 .5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.8%
(0.2% - 1 .4%)
0.9%
(0.3% - 1 .7%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.8%
(0.3% - 1 .4%)
0.8%
(0.2% - 1 .5%)
0.5%
(0.1% -0.9%)
0.6%
(0.1% -1.2%)
0.5%
(0.1%- 1%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .3%)
0.6%
(0.2% - 1 .2%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0.6%
(0.1% -1.2%)
0.8%
(0.2% - 1 .4%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.6%
(0.2%- 1.1%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .2%)
Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 15%
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
Abt Associates Inc.
3-37
December 2006
-------
Location
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, DC
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, DC
Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.8%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.084/3
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.080/4
0.2%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.074/5
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.074/4
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.074/3
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.070/4
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.064/4
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 20%
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
"Percents are median (0.5 fractile) percents of occurrences. Percents in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty
surrounding the O3 coefficient.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 - 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr
average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
Abt Associates Inc.
3-38
December 2006
-------
Table 3-16. Number of All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response
Associated with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for
Location-Specific O3 Seasons: Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations*
Location
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, DC
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
Number of All Children (in 1000s) Estimated to Experience at Least One Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the
Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
0.084/3
0.080/4
0.074/5
0.074/4
0.074/3
0.070/4
0.064/4
Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 10%
62
(43 - 96)
52
(33 - 82)
60
(34 - 98)
23
(14-37)
46
(28 - 74)
69
(49 - 1 05)
121
(87 - 1 90)
161
(97 - 261 )
63
(41 -101)
15
(1 1 - 23)
27
(17-43)
89
(60 - 1 38)
61
(42 - 94)
45
(28 - 72)
56
(31 - 90)
20
(12-33)
40
(24 - 66)
61
(42 - 95)
113
(81 -178)
149
(88 - 242)
57
(36 - 92)
13
(10-21)
24
(15-40)
76
(49 - 1 20)
53
(35 - 83)
44
(27-71)
52
(28 - 83)
19
(1 1 - 32)
39
(23 - 63)
58
(40 - 91 )
100
(71 -156)
137
(79 - 222)
54
(34 - 87)
12
(9-19)
23
(14-37)
75
(48-119)
45
(29 - 72)
41
(25 - 67)
45
(23 - 72)
16
(8 - 26)
37
(21 - 60)
48
(31 - 76)
74
(52-114)
102
(52 - 1 64)
44
(26 - 72)
9
(7-15)
19
(11 -31)
63
(39 - 1 02)
42
(26 - 67)
34
(19-55)
40
(19-64)
15
(8 - 24)
30
(16-49)
45
(29 - 72)
71
(49 - 1 09)
106
(55 - 1 72)
42
(25 - 69)
9
(6-13)
18
(10-29)
58
(35 - 94)
41
(26 - 66)
31
(17-50)
37
(17-59)
14
(7 - 22)
27
(14-44)
41
(26 - 65)
66
(45 -101)
100
(50 -161)
39
(22 - 63)
8
(6-12)
16
(9 - 26)
50
(29 - 82)
35
(21 - 56)
29
(15-46)
33
(13-53)
13
(6 - 20)
25
(13-41)
38
(23 - 60)
54
(36 - 82)
89
(42 - 1 44)
35
(20 - 57)
7
(5-11)
15
(8 - 23)
48
(27 - 78)
26
(14-42)
21
(9 - 34)
23
(6 - 39)
9
(4-15)
19
(8 - 30)
27
(15-43)
27
(16-42)
66
(24 - 1 08)
27
(13-42)
5
(3-7)
11
(5-18)
36
(18-57)
Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 15%
20
(8 - 34)
15
(4 - 27)
15
(1 -31)
6
(1 -12)
12
(2 - 24)
23
(10-37)
34
(5 - 62)
20
(8 - 33)
13
(3 - 24)
14
(0 - 29)
5
(0-11)
11
(1 -21)
19
(7 - 33)
31
(4 - 58)
16
(5 - 28)
12
(2 - 23)
12
(0 - 27)
5
(0-10)
10
(1 - 20)
18
(6-31)
26
(3 - 50)
13
(3 - 24)
11
(2 - 22)
10
(0 - 24)
4
(0-8)
9
(1 -19)
14
(3 - 25)
18
(1 - 37)
12
(2 - 22)
9
(1 -18)
9
(0-21)
4
(0-8)
7
(0-16)
13
(3 - 24)
17
(1 - 36)
11
(2-21)
7
(0-16)
8
(0 - 20)
3
(0-7)
6
(0-14)
11
(2-21)
16
(0 - 33)
9
(1 -18)
7
(0-15)
7
(0-18)
3
(0-7)
6
(0-13)
10
(1 -19)
13
(0 - 27)
6
(0-14)
5
(0-11)
5
(0-13)
2
(0-5)
4
(0-10)
7
(0-14)
6
(0-14)
Abt Associates Inc.
3-39
December 2006
-------
Location
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, DC
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, DC
Number of All Children (in 1000s) Estimated to Experience at Least One Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the
Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
43
(6 - 84)
19
(5 - 33)
4
(1-7)
7
(1 -14)
28
(10-48)
0.084/3
39
(4 - 78)
16
(3 - 30)
4
(0-7)
7
(1 -13)
22
(6 - 40)
0.080/4
35
(3 - 72)
15
(3 - 28)
3
(0-6)
6
(0-12)
22
(6 - 40)
0.074/5
24
(0 - 53)
11
(1 - 23)
2
(0-5)
5
(0-10)
17
(3 - 33)
0.074/4
25
(0 - 56)
11
(1 - 22)
2
(0-4)
4
(0-9)
16
(2 - 30)
0.074/3
23
(0 - 52)
10
(0 - 20)
2
(0-4)
4
(0-8)
13
(1 - 26)
0.070/4
20
(0 - 47)
9
(0-18)
2
(0-3)
3
(0-8)
12
(1 - 25)
0.064/4
14
(0 - 35)
6
(0-14)
1
(0-2)
2
(0-6)
8
(0-19)
Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 20%
4
(1 -12)
3
(0-9)
2
(0-9)
1
(0-3)
2
(0-7)
5
(1 -13)
5
(0-19)
7
(0 - 25)
3
(0-10)
1
(0-2)
1
(0-4)
6
(1 -16)
4
(1 -11)
2
(0-7)
2
(0-8)
1
(0-3)
2
(0-6)
4
(1 -11)
5
(0-18)
6
(0 - 23)
3
(0-9)
1
(0-2)
1
(0-4)
4
(0-13)
3
(0-9)
2
(0-7)
2
(0-7)
1
(0-3)
1
(0-6)
4
(0-10)
4
(0-15)
5
(0 - 20)
2
(0-9)
0
(0-2)
1
(0-4)
4
(0-12)
2
(0-7)
2
(0-6)
1
(0-6)
0
(0-2)
1
(0-5)
2
(0-8)
2
(0-11)
3
(0-14)
2
(0-7)
0
(0-1)
1
(0-3)
3
(0-10)
2
(0-7)
1
(0-5)
1
(0-5)
0
(0-2)
1
(0-4)
2
(0-7)
2
(0-10)
3
(0-15)
2
(0-6)
0
(0-1)
1
(0-3)
2
(0-9)
2
(0-7)
1
(0-4)
1
(0-5)
0
(0-2)
1
(0-4)
2
(0-6)
2
(0-9)
3
(0-14)
1
(0-6)
0
(0-1)
0
(0-2)
2
(0-8)
1
(0-5)
1
(0-4)
1
(0-4)
0
(0-2)
1
(0-4)
1
(0-6)
2
(0-8)
2
(0-12)
1
(0-5)
0
(0-1)
0
(0-2)
2
(0-7)
1
(0-4)
1
(0-3)
0
(0-3)
0
(0-1)
0
(0-3)
1
(0-4)
1
(0-4)
1
(0-9)
1
(0-4)
0
(0-1)
0
(0-2)
1
(0-5)
"Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) numbers of children. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty
surrounding the O3 coefficient.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest 1000.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 - 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr
average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
Abt Associates Inc.
3-40
December 2006
-------
Table 3-17. Number of All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response
Associated with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for
Location-Specific O3 Seasons: Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations*
Location
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, DC
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
Number of All Children (in 1000s) Estimated to Experience at Least One Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the
Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
0.084/3
0.080/4
0.074/5
0.074/4
0.074/3
0.070/4
0.064/4
Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 10%
94
(71 -133)
123
(95 - 1 67)
186
(1 40 - 268)
73
(57 - 99)
121
(92 - 1 69)
70
(50 - 1 06)
120
(87 - 1 87)
382
(283 - 555)
149
(117-201)
27
(21 - 40)
72
(56 - 96)
168
(129-231)
92
(69 -131)
106
(80 - 1 50)
172
(1 27 - 252)
64
(49 - 90)
106
(79 - 1 54)
62
(43 - 96)
115
(83 - 1 80)
355
(259 - 524)
134
(103-185)
25
(19-37)
65
(50 - 89)
145
(1 09 - 207)
79
(58-117)
105
(79 - 1 48)
160
(116-238)
63
(48 - 88)
103
(76 -151)
60
(41 - 92)
99
(71 -155)
328
(236 - 494)
129
(99 - 1 79)
23
(18-35)
61
(47 - 86)
143
(1 08 - 205)
69
(49 - 1 05)
98
(73 - 1 41 )
141
(99-216)
51
(37 - 77)
99
(73 - 1 47)
48
(31 - 76)
70
(49 - 1 09)
248
(1 66 - 392)
106
(78 - 1 56)
18
(14-29)
52
(38 - 75)
122
(89 - 1 82)
63
(44 - 98)
81
(58 -121)
124
(85 - 1 95)
49
(35 - 74)
80
(56 - 1 24)
46
(30 - 73)
70
(49 - 1 08)
258
(1 75 - 406)
101
(74 - 1 50)
17
(13-27)
48
(35-71)
113
(80-171)
63
(44 - 97)
72
(50-110)
116
(78 - 1 83)
43
(30 - 67)
71
(49-113)
42
(27 - 67)
66
(46 - 1 02)
240
(1 60 - 382)
92
(65 - 1 39)
16
(12-25)
44
(31 - 66)
100
(69 - 1 55)
53
(35 - 84)
68
(46 - 1 04)
104
(68-167)
41
(28 - 64)
67
(45 - 1 07)
38
(24 - 61 )
52
(36 - 80)
218
(141 -350)
85
(60-131)
14
(10-22)
40
(28 - 62)
96
(65-150)
40
(25 - 66)
50
(31 - 80)
77
(47-127)
31
(20 - 50)
50
(31 - 82)
28
(16-44)
28
(18-43)
165
(99 - 270)
65
(42- 104)
10
(7-16)
30
(19-48)
72
(46 - 1 1 7)
Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 15%
36
(21 - 54)
52
(33 - 74)
71
(41 - 1 06)
30
(19-43)
47
(29 - 69)
24
(1 1 - 38)
35
(7 - 62)
35
(20 - 52)
42
(25 - 62)
63
(35 - 96)
25
(15-37)
40
(23 - 60)
20
(8 - 34)
33
(6 - 59)
29
(15-44)
42
(24 - 61 )
57
(29 - 88)
24
(15-36)
38
(21 - 58)
19
(7 - 32)
27
(4-51)
23
(1 1 - 38)
38
(21 - 57)
47
(22 - 76)
18
(10-28)
36
(20 - 55)
14
(3 - 25)
18
(1 - 35)
21
(8 - 34)
29
(14-45)
40
(15-66)
17
(9 - 27)
27
(12-43)
13
(3 - 24)
18
(1 - 35)
20
(8 - 34)
24
(1 1 - 39)
36
(12-62)
14
(6 - 23)
22
(9 - 38)
12
(2 - 22)
17
(1 - 33)
16
(5 - 28)
22
(9 - 37)
31
(9 - 55)
13
(5 - 22)
21
(7 - 35)
10
(1 - 20)
13
(0 - 26)
11
(1 -21)
14
(3 - 26)
20
(2 - 40)
9
(2-16)
14
(1 - 26)
7
(0-14)
7
(0-14)
Abt Associates Inc.
3-41
December 2006
-------
Location
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, DC
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, DC
Number of All Children (in 1000s) Estimated to Experience at Least One Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the
Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
142
(79-216)
63
(41 - 89)
10
(5-15)
30
(20 - 43)
68
(42 - 98)
0.084/3
128
(68 - 1 97)
54
(34 - 78)
8
(4-13)
26
(16-38)
55
(32 - 82)
0.080/4
114
(57 -181)
51
(31 - 75)
8
(3-12)
24
(15-35)
55
(31 - 82)
0.074/5
76
(26 - 1 32)
39
(21 - 59)
6
(2-10)
19
(1 1 - 29)
44
(22 - 68)
0.074/4
81
(29 - 1 38)
36
(19-56)
5
(1-9)
17
(9 - 26)
39
(18-62)
0.074/3
73
(23 - 1 27)
31
(15-50)
5
(1-8)
15
(7 - 24)
32
(13-54)
0.070/4
64
(16-115)
28
(13-46)
4
(1-7)
13
(6 - 22)
30
(12-51)
0.064/4
43
(3 - 86)
19
(5 - 34)
3
(0-5)
9
(2-16)
20
(4 - 38)
Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 20%
10
(3-21)
18
(8 - 33)
19
(6 - 40)
9
(4-18)
13
(4 - 27)
6
(1 -14)
6
(0 - 20)
37
(11 -81)
21
(9 - 39)
2
(0-5)
10
(4-19)
21
(8-41)
10
(3 - 20)
13
(5 - 26)
16
(4 - 35)
7
(2-14)
10
(2 - 22)
4
(1 -11)
6
(0-19)
31
(8 - 72)
16
(6 - 32)
2
(0-5)
8
(3-15)
15
(5 - 32)
7
(2-16)
13
(5 - 25)
13
(3-31)
7
(2-14)
9
(2-21)
4
(1 -11)
4
(0-16)
26
(5 - 64)
15
(5 - 30)
2
(0-4)
7
(2-14)
15
(5-31)
5
(1 -13)
11
(4 - 23)
10
(1 - 26)
4
(1 -10)
9
(2 - 20)
2
(0-8)
3
(0-10)
14
(1 - 43)
10
(2 - 22)
1
(0-3)
5
(1 -11)
10
(2 - 24)
4
(1 -11)
7
(2-16)
8
(1 - 22)
4
(1-9)
5
(0-14)
2
(0-7)
3
(0-10)
16
(1 - 45)
9
(2 - 20)
1
(0-3)
4
(1 -9)
9
(1 -21)
4
(1 -11)
5
(1 -14)
7
(0 - 20)
3
(0-8)
4
(0-12)
2
(0-7)
2
(0-10)
13
(1 -41)
7
(1 -17)
1
(0-3)
3
(0-8)
7
(1 -18)
3
(0-9)
5
(1 -12)
5
(0-17)
3
(0-7)
4
(0-11)
2
(0-6)
2
(0-8)
11
(0 - 36)
6
(1 -16)
1
(0-2)
3
(0-7)
6
(1 -17)
2
(0-6)
2
(0-8)
3
(0-12)
1
(0-5)
2
(0-8)
1
(0-4)
1
(0-4)
6
(0 - 25)
3
(0-11)
0
(0-2)
1
(0-5)
3
(0-12)
"Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) numbers of children. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty
surrounding the O3 coefficient.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest 1000.
"These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr
average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
Abt Associates Inc.
3-42
December 2006
-------
Table 3-18. Percent of All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response
Associated with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for
Location-Specific O3 Seasons: Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations*
Location
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, DC
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
Percent of All Children Estimated to Experience at Least One Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current
and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
0.084/3
0.080/4
0.074/5
0.074/4
0.074/3
0.070/4
0.064/4
Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 10%
6.6%
(4.6% -10.1%)
4.7%
(3% - 7.5%)
3.1%
(1 .7% - 5%)
3.8%
(2.3% - 6.2%)
4.1%
(2.5% - 6.7%)
6.3%
(4.5% - 9.6%)
3.3%
(2.4% - 5.2%)
3.9%
(2.3% - 6.3%)
5.3%
(3.5% - 8.5%)
3.6%
(2.7% - 5.6%)
4.6%
(2.9% - 7.5%)
6%
(4% - 9.3%)
6.4%
(4.4% - 9.9%)
4.1%
(2.5% - 6.6%)
2.9%
(1 .6% - 4.6%)
3.4%
(2% - 5.6%)
3.6%
(2.1% -5.9%)
5.6%
(3.9% - 8.7%)
3.1%
(2.2% - 4.9%)
3.6%
(2.1% -5.8%)
4.8%
(3% - 7.7%)
3.3%
(2.4% - 5.2%)
4.2%
(2.6% - 6.8%)
5.1%
(3.3% -8.1%)
5.6%
(3.7% - 8.8%)
4%
(2.5% - 6.5%)
2.6%
(1 .4% - 4.3%)
3.3%
(1 .9% - 5.3%)
3.5%
(2% - 5.7%)
5.3%
(3.6% - 8.3%)
2.7%
(1 .9% - 4.3%)
3.3%
(1 .9% - 5.4%)
4.5%
(2.8% - 7.4%)
2.9%
(2.2% - 4.6%)
3.9%
(2.4% - 6.4%)
5%
(3.3% - 8%)
4.8%
(3.1% -7.7%)
3.8%
(2.3% -6.1%)
2.3%
(1 .2% - 3.7%)
2.7%
(1 .4% - 4.3%)
3.3%
(1 .9% - 5.4%)
4.4%
(2.9% - 6.9%)
2%
(1.4% -3.1%)
2.5%
(1 .2% - 4%)
3.7%
(2.2% -6.1%)
2.3%
(1 .7% - 3.5%)
3.2%
(1 .9% - 5.3%)
4.2%
(2.6% - 6.9%)
4.4%
(2.8% -7.1%)
3.1%
(1 .7% - 5%)
2%
(1 % - 3.3%)
2.5%
(1.3% -4.1%)
2.7%
(1 .5% - 4.4%)
4.2%
(2.7% - 6.6%)
1.9%
(1 .3% - 3%)
2.6%
(1.3% -4.1%)
3.6%
(2.1% -5.8%)
2.1%
(1 .6% - 3.3%)
3.1%
(1 .7% - 5%)
3.9%
(2.4% - 6.3%)
4.4%
(2.7% - 7%)
2.8%
(1 .5% - 4.5%)
1.9%
(0.8% - 3%)
2.3%
(1 .2% - 3.7%)
2.5%
(1 .3% - 4%)
3.8%
(2.4% - 6%)
1.8%
(1 .2% - 2.8%)
2.4%
(1 .2% - 3.9%)
3.3%
(1 .9% - 5.3%)
2%
(1 .5% - 3%)
2.8%
(1 .5% - 4.5%)
3.4%
(2% - 5.5%)
3.7%
(2.2% - 5.9%)
2.6%
(1 .4% - 4.2%)
1.7%
(0.7% - 2.7%)
2.1%
(1 % - 3.4%)
2.3%
(1.1% -3.7%)
3.4%
(2.1% -5.5%)
1.5%
(1 % - 2.2%)
2.2%
(1 % - 3.5%)
3%
(1 .7% - 4.8%)
1.7%
(1 .3% - 2.6%)
2.5%
(1 .3% - 4%)
3.2%
(1 .8% - 5.2%)
2.8%
(1 .5% - 4.5%)
1.9%
(0.9% -3.1%)
1.2%
(0.3% - 2%)
1.6%
(0.6% - 2.6%)
1.7%
(0.7% - 2.7%)
2.5%
(1 .4% - 4%)
0.7%
(0.4%- 1.1%)
1.6%
(0.6% - 2.6%)
2.2%
(1.1% -3.6%)
1.1%
(0.8% - 1 .6%)
1.9%
(0.9% -3.1%)
2.4%
(1 .2% - 3.9%)
Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 15%
2.2%
(0.9% - 3.6%)
1.4%
(0.4% - 2.5%)
0.8%
(0% - 1 .6%)
1%
(0.1% -2%)
1.1%
(0.2% -2.1%)
2.1%
(0.9% - 3.4%)
0.9%
(0.1% -1.7%)
2.1%
(0.8% - 3.5%)
1.1%
(0.2% - 2.2%)
0.7%
(0% - 1 .5%)
0.9%
(0.1%- 1.8%)
1%
(0.1% -1.9%)
1.8%
(0.6% - 3%)
0.8%
(0.1% -1.6%)
1.7%
(0.5% - 3%)
1.1%
(0.2% -2.1%)
0.6%
(0% - 1 .4%)
0.8%
(0% - 1 .7%)
0.9%
(0.1% -1.8%)
1.7%
(0.5% - 2.8%)
0.7%
(0.1% -1.4%)
1.4%
(0.3% - 2.5%)
1%
(0.2% - 2%)
0.5%
(0% - 1 .2%)
0.6%
(0% - 1 .4%)
0.8%
(0% - 1 .7%)
1.3%
(0.3% - 2.3%)
0.5%
(0% - 1 %)
1.2%
(0.2% - 2.3%)
0.8%
(0.1%- 1.6%)
0.5%
(0%-1.1%)
0.6%
(0% - 1 .3%)
0.7%
(0% - 1 .4%)
1.2%
(0.2% - 2.2%)
0.5%
(0% - 1 %)
1.2%
(0.2% - 2.3%)
0.7%
(0% - 1 .5%)
0.4%
(0% - 1 %)
0.5%
(0% - 1 .2%)
0.6%
(0% - 1 .3%)
1%
(0.1%- 1.9%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.9%)
0.9%
(0.1% -1.9%)
0.6%
(0% - 1 .4%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.9%)
0.5%
(0%- 1.1%)
0.5%
(0% - 1 .2%)
0.9%
(0.1%- 1.8%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.7%
(0% - 1 .5%)
0.4%
(0% - 1 %)
0.3%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.9%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.9%)
0.6%
(0% - 1 .3%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
Abt Associates Inc.
3-43
December 2006
-------
Location
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, DC
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, DC
Percent of All Children Estimated to Experience at Least One Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current
and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
1%
(0.2% - 2%)
1.6%
(0.4% - 2.8%)
1%
(0.2% - 1 .8%)
1.3%
(0.2% - 2.4%)
1.9%
(0.7% - 3.2%)
0.084/3
0.9%
(0.1% -1.9%)
1.4%
(0.3% - 2.5%)
0.9%
(0.1% -1.7%)
1.1%
(0.1% -2.2%)
1.5%
(0.4% - 2.7%)
0.080/4
0.8%
(0.1% -1.7%)
1.3%
(0.2% - 2.4%)
0.8%
(0.1% -1.5%)
1%
(0.1% -2%)
1.5%
(0.4% - 2.7%)
0.074/5
0.6%
(0% - 1 .3%)
1%
(0.1%- 1.9%)
0.6%
(0%-1.1%)
0.8%
(0% - 1 .7%)
1.2%
(0.2% - 2.2%)
0.074/4
0.6%
(0% - 1 .3%)
0.9%
(0% - 1 .9%)
0.5%
(0%-1.1%)
0.8%
(0% - 1 .6%)
1%
(0.1% -2%)
0.074/3
0.6%
(0% - 1 .3%)
0.8%
(0% - 1 .7%)
0.5%
(0% - 1 %)
0.7%
(0% - 1 .5%)
0.9%
(0.1%- 1.8%)
0.070/4
0.5%
(0%-1.1%)
0.7%
(0% - 1 .6%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.8%)
0.6%
(0% - 1 .3%)
0.8%
(0% - 1 .7%)
0.064/4
0.3%
(0% - 0.9%)
0.5%
(0% - 1 .2%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.4%
(0% - 1 %)
0.6%
(0% - 1 .3%)
Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 20%
0.5%
(0.1% -1.2%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.8%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.5%
(0.1%- 1.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.9%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.4%
(0.1%- 1.1%)
0.4%
(0.1% -1.2%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.4%
(0.1%- 1%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.8%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.8%)
0.3%
(0% - 1 %)
0.2%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.9%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.8%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.8%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.5%)
0%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0%
(0% - 0.3%)
0%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
"Percents are median (0.5 fractile) percents of children. Percents in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty
surrounding the O3 coefficient.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 - 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr
average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
Abt Associates Inc.
3-44
December 2006
-------
Table 3-19. Percent of All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response
Associated with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for
Location-Specific O3 Seasons: Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations*
Location
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, DC
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
Percent of All Children Estimated to Experience at Least One Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current
and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
0.084/3
0.080/4
0.074/5
0.074/4
0.074/3
0.070/4
0.064/4
Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 10%
9.9%
(7.5% -14.1%)
1 1 .2%
(8.7% -15.3%)
9.6%
(7.2% -13.7%)
12.3%
(9.6% -16.7%)
10.9%
(8.3% -15.2%)
6.5%
(4.6% - 9.7%)
3.3%
(2.4% -5.1%)
9.2%
(6.8% -13.4%)
12.6%
(9.9% -16.9%)
6.5%
(5.1% -9.7%)
12.3%
(9.7% -16.5%)
1 1 .3%
(8.7% -15.6%)
9.7%
(7.3% -13.9%)
9.7%
(7.3% -13.7%)
8.8%
(6.5% -12.9%)
10.8%
(8.3% -15.2%)
9.6%
(7.1% -13.9%)
5.7%
(4% - 8.8%)
3.1%
(2.3% - 4.9%)
8.6%
(6.2% -12.6%)
1 1 .3%
(8.7% -15.6%)
6%
(4.7% -9.1%)
1 1 .2%
(8.6% -15.4%)
9.7%
(7.3% -13.9%)
8.4%
(6.2% -12.5%)
9.6%
(7.2% -13.5%)
8.2%
(6% -12.2%)
10.5%
(8% -14.9%)
9.3%
(6.9% -13.6%)
5.5%
(3.8% - 8.5%)
2.7%
(1 .9% - 4.2%)
7.9%
(5.7% - 1 1 .9%)
10.9%
(8.3% -15.1%)
5.5%
(4.3% - 8.4%)
10.5%
(8.1% -14.7%)
9.7%
(7.2% -13.8%)
7.3%
(5.2% -11.1%)
9%
(6.7% -12.8%)
7.2%
(5.1% -11.1%)
8.7%
(6.3% -12.9%)
9%
(6.6% -13.2%)
4.4%
(2.9% - 7%)
1.9%
(1 .3% - 3%)
6%
(4% - 9.4%)
9%
(6.6% -13.1%)
4.5%
(3.4% - 7%)
8.9%
(6.6% -12.9%)
8.2%
(6% -12.3%)
6.7%
(4.7% -10.4%)
7.4%
(5.3% -11%)
6.4%
(4.4% -10%)
8.2%
(5.9% -12.4%)
7.2%
(5.1% -11.2%)
4.2%
(2.7% - 6.7%)
1.9%
(1 .3% - 2.9%)
6.2%
(4.2% - 9.8%)
8.5%
(6.2% -12.6%)
4.2%
(3.2% - 6.6%)
8.2%
(6% -12.2%)
7.6%
(5.4% - 1 1 .5%)
6.7%
(4.6% -10.3%)
6.6%
(4.6% -10%)
5.9%
(4% - 9.4%)
7.3%
(5.1% -11. 3%)
6.4%
(4.4% -10.2%)
3.9%
(2.4% - 6.2%)
1.8%
(1 .3% - 2.8%)
5.8%
(3.8% - 9.2%)
7.7%
(5.5% - 1 1 .7%)
3.9%
(2.9% -6.1%)
7.5%
(5.4% - 1 1 .4%)
6.7%
(4.6% -10.4%)
5.6%
(3.7% - 8.9%)
6.2%
(4.2% - 9.5%)
5.3%
(3.5% - 8.6%)
6.9%
(4.7% -10.8%)
6%
(4% - 9.6%)
3.5%
(2.2% - 5.6%)
1.4%
(1 % - 2.2%)
5.3%
(3.4% - 8.4%)
7.2%
(5% -11.1%)
3.4%
(2.5% - 5.4%)
6.9%
(4.8% -10.6%)
6.4%
(4.4% -10.1%)
4.3%
(2.6% - 7%)
4.6%
(2.9% - 7.3%)
4%
(2.4% - 6.5%)
5.2%
(3.3% - 8.4%)
4.5%
(2.8% - 7.4%)
2.6%
(1.4% -4.1%)
0.8%
(0.5% - 1 .2%)
4%
(2.4% - 6.5%)
5.5%
(3.6% - 8.8%)
2.5%
(1 .8% - 3.8%)
5.1%
(3.3% - 8.3%)
4.9%
(3.1% -7.9%)
Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 15%
3.8%
(2.2% - 5.7%)
4.7%
(3% - 6.8%)
3.6%
(2.1% -5.4%)
5.1%
(3.3% - 7.2%)
4.3%
(2.6% - 6.3%)
2.2%
(1 % - 3.5%)
0.9%
(0.2% - 1 .7%)
3.7%
(2.2% - 5.5%)
3.9%
(2.3% - 5.7%)
3.2%
(1 .8% - 4.9%)
4.3%
(2.6% - 6.2%)
3.6%
(2% - 5.4%)
1.9%
(0.7% -3.1%)
0.9%
(0.2% - 1 .6%)
3%
(1 .6% - 4.7%)
3.8%
(2.2% - 5.6%)
2.9%
(1 .5% - 4.5%)
4.1%
(2.5% - 6%)
3.4%
(1 .9% - 5.2%)
1.7%
(0.6% - 2.9%)
0.7%
(0.1% -1.4%)
2.5%
(1.1% -4%)
3.5%
(2% - 5.2%)
2.4%
(1.1% -3.9%)
3.1%
(1 .7% - 4.8%)
3.2%
(1 .8% - 5%)
1.3%
(0.3% - 2.3%)
0.5%
(0% - 1 %)
2.2%
(0.9% - 3.6%)
2.6%
(1.3% -4.1%)
2%
(0.8% - 3.4%)
2.9%
(1 .5% - 4.5%)
2.4%
(1.1% -3.9%)
1.2%
(0.3% - 2.2%)
0.5%
(0% - 1 %)
2.2%
(0.9% - 3.6%)
2.2%
(1 % - 3.6%)
1.8%
(0.6% - 3.2%)
2.4%
(1.1% -3.9%)
2%
(0.8% - 3.4%)
1.1%
(0.2% - 2%)
0.5%
(0% - 0.9%)
1.7%
(0.5% - 3%)
2%
(0.8% - 3.3%)
1.6%
(0.4% - 2.8%)
2.2%
(0.9% - 3.7%)
1.8%
(0.6% - 3.2%)
0.9%
(0.1%- 1.8%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.7%)
1.2%
(0.1% -2.2%)
1.3%
(0.3% - 2.4%)
1%
(0.1% -2.1%)
1.5%
(0.3% - 2.7%)
1.2%
(0.1% -2.4%)
0.6%
(0% - 1 .3%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
Abt Associates Inc.
3-45
December 2006
-------
Location
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, DC
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, DC
Percent of All Children Estimated to Experience at Least One Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current
and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
3.4%
(1 .9% - 5.2%)
5.4%
(3.5% - 7.5%)
2.3%
(1.1% -3.5%)
5.2%
(3.4% - 7.4%)
4.6%
(2.9% - 6.6%)
0.084/3
3.1%
(1 .6% - 4.8%)
4.6%
(2.8% - 6.6%)
2%
(0.9% - 3.2%)
4.5%
(2.8% - 6.5%)
3.7%
(2.1% -5.6%)
0.080/4
2.8%
(1 .4% - 4.4%)
4.3%
(2.6% - 6.3%)
1.8%
(0.7% - 2.9%)
4.2%
(2.5% -6.1%)
3.7%
(2.1% -5.5%)
0.074/5
1.8%
(0.6% - 3.2%)
3.3%
(1 .8% - 5%)
1.4%
(0.4% - 2.3%)
3.3%
(1 .8% - 5%)
2.9%
(1 .5% - 4.6%)
0.074/4
2%
(0.7% - 3.3%)
3%
(1 .6% - 4.7%)
1.3%
(0.3% - 2.2%)
2.9%
(1 .5% - 4.5%)
2.6%
(1 .2% - 4.2%)
0.074/3
1.8%
(0.6% -3.1%)
2.6%
(1 .3% - 4.2%)
1.1%
(0.3% - 2%)
2.6%
(1.2% -4.1%)
2.2%
(0.9% - 3.6%)
0.070/4
1.5%
(0.4% - 2.8%)
2.4%
(1.1% -3.9%)
1%
(0.2% - 1 .7%)
2.3%
(1 % - 3.7%)
2.1%
(0.8% - 3.4%)
0.064/4
1%
(0.1% -2.1%)
1.6%
(0.4% - 2.9%)
0.6%
(0% - 1 .2%)
1.5%
(0.4% - 2.7%)
1.4%
(0.3% - 2.5%)
Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 20%
1.1%
(0.4% - 2.2%)
1.6%
(0.7% - 3%)
1%
(0.3% -2.1%)
1.6%
(0.6% - 3%)
1.2%
(0.4% - 2.4%)
0.5%
(0.1%- 1.3%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.9%
(0.3% - 2%)
1.8%
(0.8% - 3.3%)
0.5%
(0.1%- 1.3%)
1.7%
(0.7% - 3.2%)
1.4%
(0.6% - 2.8%)
1%
(0.3% - 2.2%)
1.2%
(0.5% - 2.3%)
0.8%
(0.2% - 1 .8%)
1.2%
(0.4% - 2.4%)
0.9%
(0.2% - 2%)
0.4%
(0.1%- 1%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.8%
(0.2% - 1 .7%)
1.4%
(0.5% - 2.7%)
0.4%
(0.1%- 1.1%)
1.4%
(0.5% - 2.7%)
1%
(0.3% -2.1%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .7%)
1.1%
(0.4% - 2.3%)
0.7%
(0.1% -1.6%)
1.1%
(0.3% - 2.3%)
0.8%
(0.2% - 1 .9%)
0.4%
(0.1%- 1%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.6%
(0.1%- 1.5%)
1.3%
(0.4% - 2.5%)
0.4%
(0% - 1 %)
1.2%
(0.4% - 2.4%)
1%
(0.3% -2.1%)
0.6%
(0.1% -1.4%)
1%
(0.4% -2.1%)
0.5%
(0.1% -1.3%)
0.7%
(0.1%- 1.7%)
0.8%
(0.2% - 1 .8%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.3%
(0% - 1 %)
0.8%
(0.2% - 1 .8%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.8%)
0.8%
(0.2% - 1 .8%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .6%)
0.5%
(0.1% -1.2%)
0.6%
(0.2% - 1 .5%)
0.4%
(0%-1.1%)
0.6%
(0.1%- 1.6%)
0.5%
(0% - 1 .3%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.4%
(0%- 1.1%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .7%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.7%
(0.1% -1.6%)
0.6%
(0.1%- 1.4%)
0.4%
(0.1% -1.2%)
0.5%
(0.1%- 1.2%)
0.3%
(0% - 1 %)
0.5%
(0% - 1 .3%)
0.4%
(0%-1.1%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.3%
(0% - 1 %)
0.6%
(0.1% -1.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.6%
(0.1% -1.4%)
0.4%
(0% - 1 .2%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.9%)
0.4%
(0.1%- 1.1%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.9%)
0.4%
(0% - 1 .2%)
0.3%
(0% - 1 %)
0.1%
(0% - 0.5%)
0%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.9%)
0.5%
(0.1% -1.3%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.5%
(0% - 1 .2%)
0.4%
(0%- 1.1%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.8%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.9%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.8%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.8%)
"Percents are median (0.5 fractile) percents of children. Percents in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty
surrounding the O3 coefficient.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 - 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr
average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
Abt Associates Inc.
3-46
December 2006
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Figure 3-7. Percent Reductions in Aggregate Numbers (Across All Locations) of Occurrences of
Lung Function Response Among All School Age Children when O3 Concentrations are Reduced
from Those Just Meeting the Current Standard to Those that Would Just Meet Each Alternative
Standard, for Each of the Three Definitions of Response*
100%
-300%
100%
50%
ra
•c
I
(0
a. -50%
o
E -100%
£
| -150%
ro
.c
~ -200%
01
-250%
-300%
Figure 3-7a. Based on 2004 Data
Response: Change in FEV1>=10%
Response: Change in FEV1>=15%
Response: Change in FEV1>=20%
2004 air 0.084/4 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4
quality
Alternative Standard
Figure 3-7b. Based on 2002 Data
-Response: Change in FEV1>=10%
-Response: Change in FEV1>=15%
Response: Change in FEV1>=20%
2002 air 0.084/4 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4
quality
Alternative Standard
* The 8-hr average standards shown in these figures, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of
m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 ~ 0.084 ppm, 4th daily
maximum 8-hr average. The figure also compares the current standard to a recent year of air quality.
Abt Associates Inc.
3-47
December 2006
-------
Figure 3-8. Percent Reductions of Occurrences of Decrement in FEVi >15% Among All School Age
Children when O3 Concentrations are Reduced from Those Just Meeting the Current Standard to
Those that Would Just Meet Each Alternative Standard, Separately for Each Location*
Figure 3-8a. Based on 2004 Data
100%
01
O)
c
ra
.c
O
50%
0%
a. -50%
-100%
-150%
- — " ""
A .' — '- — • — •
•ii— ^^ ~"" """
-^
/yy
'/
v>
2004 air 0.084/4 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4
quality
Alternative Standard
-•-Atlanta: 131 (10 - 344); 0.2% (0% - 0.4%)
Chicago: 1 10 (1 - 328); 0.1% (0% - 0.3%)
-sis- Detroit: 79 (2 - 227); 0.1 % (0% - 0.3%)
-i- Los Angeles: 371 (6 - 1 044); 0.1 % (0% - 0.2%)
— Philadelphia: 130 (6 - 345); 0.1% (0% - 0.4%)
St. Louis: 54 (1 - 148); 0.1% (0% - 0.3%)
-m- Boston: 86 (5 - 238); 0.1 % (0% - 0.3%)
-*- Cleveland: 43 (1 - 125); 0.1% (0% -0.3%)
-•-Houston: 1 10 (13 - 253); 0.1% (0% - 0.2%)
New York: 296 (7 - 851 ); 0.1 % (0% - 0.3%)
Sacramento: 41 (1 - 1 1 4); 0.1 % (0% - 0.2%)
Washington, DC: 164 (12 - 432); 0.1% (0% - 0.4%)
Figure 3-8b. Based on 2002 Data
100%
-150%
2002 air
quality
0.084/4 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4
Alternative Standard
0.074/3
0.070/4
0.064/4
-•-Atlanta: 196 (39 - 442); 0.2% (0% - 0.5%)
Chicago: 325 (68 - 727); 0.3% (0.1% - 0.6%)
-sis- Detroit: 226 (56 - 488); 0.3% (0.1 % - 0.7%)
-i- Los Angeles: 315 (9 - 869); 0.1 % (0% - 0.2%)
Philadelphia: 335 (92 - 696); 0.4% (0.1 % - 0.8%)
St. Louis: 141 (40 - 292); 0.3% (0.1% - 0.7%)
-m- Boston: 210 (56 - 458); 0.3% (0.1 % - 0.7%)
-*- Cleveland: 153 (43 - 320); 0.4% (0.1% - 0.7%)
-•-Houston: 99 (13 - 223); 0.1% (0% - 0.2%)
New York: 753 (140 -1727); 0.3% (0.1% - 0.6%)
Sacramento: 72 (8 -179); 0.1% (0% - 0.4%)
Washington, DC: 345 (82 - 752); 0.3% (0.1% - 0.7%)
* The 8-hr average standards shown in these figures, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of
m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 ~ 0.084 ppm, 4th daily
maximum 8-hr average. The figure also compares the current standard to a recent year of air quality. The
percent reductions from the current standard (0.084/4) to a recent year of air quality were omitted for Los
Angeles because they were so large in magnitude (-286% in 2004 and -290% in 2002). The incidence (and
95% credible interval) and percent of total incidence (and 95% credible interval) when O3 concentrations
just meet the current standard are shown for each location in the box below each figure.
Abt Associates Inc.
3-48
December 2006
-------
Figure 3-9. Percent Reductions in Aggregate Numbers (Across All Locations) of All School Age
Children Experiencing at Least One Occurrence of Lung Function Response when O3
Concentrations are Reduced from Those Just Meeting the Current Standard to Those that Would
Just Meet Each Alternative Standard, for Each of the Three Definitions of Response*
100%
-400%
100%
Figure 3-9a. Based on 2004 Data
Response: Change in FEV1>=10%
Response: Change in FEV1>=15%
Response: Change in FEV1>=20%
2004 air 0.084/4 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4
quality
Alternative Standard
Figure 3-9b. Based on 2002 Data
Response: Change in FEV1>=10%
Response: Change in FEV1>=15%
Response: Change in FEV1>=20%
-400%
2002 air 0.084/4 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4
quality
Alternative Standard
* The 8-hr average standards shown in these figures, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of
m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 ~ 0.084 ppm, 4th daily
maximum 8-hr average. The figure also compares the current standard to a recent year of air quality.
Abt Associates Inc.
3-49
December 2006
-------
Figure 3-10. Percent Reductions in Numbers of All School Age Children Experiencing at Least One
Decrement in FEVi >15% when Os Concentrations are Reduced from Those Just Meeting the
Current Standard to Those that Would Just Meet Each Alternative Standard, Separately for Each
Location*
100%
Figure 3-10a. Based on 2004 Data
-200%
2004 air
quality
0.084/4 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4
Alternative Standard
0.074/3
0.070/4
0.064/4
-Atlanta: 20 (8 - 34); 2.2% (0.9% - 3.6%)
Chicago: 15 (1 - 31); 0.8% (0% -1.6%)
- Detroit: 12 (2 - 24); 1.1% (0.2% - 2.1 %)
-Los Angeles: 34 (5-62); 0.9% (0.1% -1.7%)
Philadelphia: 19 (5 - 33); 1.6% (0.4% - 2.8%)
St. Louis: 7 (1 - 14); 1.3% (0.2% - 2.4%)
-m- Boston: 15 (4 - 27); 1.4% (0.4% - 2.5%)
-*- Cleveland: 6 (1 -12); 1 % (0.1 % - 2%)
-•- Houston: 23 (10 - 37); 2.1 % (0.9% - 3.4%)
New York: 43 (6 - 84); 1 % (0.2% - 2%)
Sacramento: 4 (1 -7); 1% (0.2% -1.8%)
Washington, DC: 28 (10 - 48); 1.9% (0.7% - 3.2%)
100%
Figure 3-10b. Based on 2002 Data
-200%
2002 air 0.084/4
quality
0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4
Alternative Standard
0.074/3
0.070/4 0.064/4
-Atlanta: 36 (21 - 54); 3.8% (2.2% - 5.7%)
Chicago: 71 (41 -106); 3.6% (2.1% - 5.4%)
-Detroit: 47 (29 - 69); 4.3% (2.6% - 6.3%)
- Los Angeles: 35 (7 - 62); 0.9% (0.2% -1.7%)
-Philadelphia: 63 (41 - 89); 5.4% (3.5% - 7.5%)
St. Louis: 30 (20 - 43); 5.2% (3.4% - 7.4%)
-•-Boston: 52 (33 - 74); 4.7% (3% - 6.8%)
-H-Cleveland: 30 (19 - 43); 5.1% (3.3% - 7.2%)
-•- Houston: 24 (11 - 38); 2.2% (1 % - 3.5%)
New York: 142 (79 - 216); 3.4% (1.9% - 5.2%)
Sacramento: 10 (5 -15); 2.3% (1.1% - 3.5%)
Washington, DC: 68 (42 - 98); 4.6% (2.9% - 6.6%)
** The 8-hr average standards shown in these figures, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of
m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 ~ 0.084 ppm, 4th daily
maximum 8-hr average. The figure also compares the current standard to a recent year of air quality. The
percent reductions from the current standard (0.084/4) to a recent year of air quality were omitted for Los
Angeles because they were so large in magnitude (-553% in 2004 and -528% in 2002). The incidence (and
95% credible interval) and percent of total incidence (and 95% credible interval) when O3 concentrations
just meet the current standard are shown for each location in the box below each figure.
Abt Associates Inc.
3-50
December 2006
-------
The estimated reductions in occurrence of lung function response when 63
concentrations just meet alternative daily maximum 8-hour standards, relative to when 63
concentrations just meet the current standard are greater the more stringent the alternative
standard. For example, at the 0.084 ppm 3rd daily maximum standard (the standard that is
closest to the current standard of 0.084 ppm 4th daily maximum), the aggregate number of
occurrences of decrements in FEVi > 15% (across all locations) among all school age
children is 8 percent less than when Os concentrations just meet the current standard,
based on 2004 air quality. At the most stringent standard considered (0.064 ppm 4th daily
maximum), the aggregate number of such occurrences is estimated to be 61 percent less
than when Os concentrations just meet the current standard. The pattern is the same
when exposure estimates are based on 2002 air quality - the corresponding percents
based on 2002 air quality are 10 percent and 60 percent.
Similarly, the estimated percent reductions in occurrence of lung function
response from when Os concentrations just meet the current standard to when they just
meet an alternative standard are greater the larger the decrement being measured. Using
2004 air quality data, at the most stringent standard considered, the aggregate number of
decrements in FEVi ^ 20% among all school age children is estimated to be 71 percent
less than when 63 concentrations just meet the current standard (compared with 61
percent less for decrements in FEVi ^ 15%, as noted above, and 58 percent less for
decrements in FEVi ^ 10%). The pattern is similar when 2002 air quality data are used.
The same patterns can be seen when the measure of interest is the number of
children experiencing at least one occurrence of lung function response. The estimated
reductions in aggregate number of children with at least one occurrence of lung function
response when 63 concentrations just meet alternative daily maximum 8-hour standards,
relative to when 63 concentrations just meet the current standard, are greater the more
stringent the alternative standard. For example, at the 0.084 ppm 3rd daily maximum
standard, the aggregate number of all school age children with at least one decrement in
FEVi ^ 15% is 12 percent less than when O3 concentrations just meet the current
standard, based on 2004 air quality. At the most stringent standard considered, this
aggregate number is estimated to be 71 percent less than when Os concentrations just
meet the current standard. The pattern is the same when exposure estimates are based on
2002 air quality - the corresponding percents based on 2002 air quality are 13 percent
and 71 percent.
Similarly, the estimated percent reductions in aggregate number of children with
at least one lung function response from when 63 concentrations just meet the current
standard to when they just meet an alternative standard are greater the larger the
decrement being measured. Using 2004 air quality data, at the most stringent standard
considered, the aggregate number of all school age children experiencing at least one
decrement in FEVi ^ 20% is estimated to be 81 percent less than when 63 concentrations
just meet the current standard (compared with about 71 percent less for decrements in
FEVi ^ 15% and 62 percent less for decrements in FEVi ^ 10%). The pattern is similar
when 2002 air quality data are used.
The same patterns can be seen for active school age children. For example, at the
0.084 ppm 3rd daily maximum standard (the standard that is closest to the current
Abt Associates Inc. 3-51 December 2006
-------
standard of 0.084 ppm 4th daily maximum), the aggregate number of occurrences of
decrements in FEVi > 15% among active school age children is 8 percent less than when
Os concentrations just meet the current standard, based on 2004 air quality. At the most
stringent standard considered, the aggregate number of such occurrences is estimated to
be 61 percent less than when 63 concentrations just meet the current standard. The
pattern is the same when exposure estimates are based on 2002 air quality - the
corresponding percents based on 2002 air quality are 9 percent and 60 percent.
3.2.2.2 Results for five locations for the current standard and two alternative
standards, based on 2002, 2003, and 2004 air quality data
In addition to the original alternative seven 8-hour daily maximum standards,
EPA staff identified a smaller set of three 8-hour daily maximum standards, including the
current standard (0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum) and two alternative standards (0.074
ppm, 4th daily maximum and 0.064 ppm. 4th daily maximum) from the original set of
seven. Analyses were carried out for a subset of five locations due to time constraints for
completing the assessment - Atlanta, Chicago, Houston, Los Angeles, and New York -
based on adjusting 2002, 2003, and 2004 air quality data.
3.2.2.2.1 Results for all school age children
In this part of the analysis, lung function response of interest for all school age
children is defined as a decrement in FEVi ^ 15%. The estimated numbers and
percentages of occurrences of lung function response associated with exposure to Os
concentrations that just meet the current and each of the two alternative daily maximum
8-hour standards among all school age children (ages 5-18) engaged in moderate
exercise for at least one 8-hour period during the Os season are given in Tables 3-20 and
3-21, respectively. The numbers and percentages of these children estimated to
experience at least one lung function response associated with exposure to Os
concentrations that just meet the current and each of the two alternative standards are
given in Tables 3-22 and 3-23, respectively. Results based on 2002, 2003, and 2004 O3
concentrations are shown in each table.
The percent reductions in numbers of school age children experiencing at least one
occurrence of lung function response when Os concentrations are reduced from those just
meeting the current standard to those that would just meet each alternative standard, as
well as a recent year of air quality, are summarized in Figures 3-1 la, b, and c, using
2004, 2003, and 2002 air quality data, respectively.
Abt Associates Inc. 3-52 December 2006
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Table 3-20. Estimated Number of Occurrences of Lung Function Response (Change in FEV1>=15%) Associated with
Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Two Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour
Standards Among All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion, for Five Location-Specific
O3 Seasons, Based on 2002, 2003, and 2004 O3 Concentrations*
Location
Atlanta
Chicago
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Atlanta
Chicago
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Atlanta
Chicago
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Number of Occurrences (in 1000s) of Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet
the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
A Recent Year of Air Quality
0.084/4***
0.074/4
0.064/4
Based on 2002 Air Quality Data
290
(88 - 593)
511
(171 -1015)
209
(62-419)
1265
(355 - 2642)
1522
(585 - 2885)
196
(39 - 442)
325
(68 - 727)
99
(13-223)
315
(9 - 869)
753
(140-1727)
131
(12-330)
215
(21 - 537)
61
(3-145)
173
(1 - 496)
513
(40-1314)
86
(1 - 240)
139
(2 - 388)
26
(0 - 54)
46
(0-112)
339
(4 - 962)
Based on 2003 Air Quality Data
186
(32-431)
265
(36 - 640)
291
(96 - 567)
1700
(610-3277)
834
(237-1769)
136
(14-339)
214
(20 - 542)
98
(8 - 234)
311
(13-833)
413
(42-1061)
92
(3 - 253)
143
(4 - 400)
56
(1-137)
147
(2-401)
284
(8 - 806)
61
(0-182)
93
(0 - 284)
16
(0 - 25)
27
(0 - 36)
185
(0-571)
Based on 2004 Air Quality Data
191
(29 - 456)
167
(6 - 460)
230
(63 - 465)
1470
(393 - 3073)
563
(77-1383)
131
(10-344)
110
(1 - 328)
110
(13-253)
371
(6-1044)
296
(7-851)
91
(2 - 260)
75
(0 - 239)
69
(3-168)
220
(1 -651)
209
(0 - 648)
62
(0-191)
48
(0-161)
32
(0 - 73)
75
(0 - 220)
139
(0 - 458)
"Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) numbers of occurrences. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty
surrounding the O3 coefficient.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest 1000.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is
0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year
period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
Abt Associates Inc.
3-53
December 2006
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Table 3-21. Estimated Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function Response (Change in FEV1>=15%) Associated
with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Two Alternative Daily Maximum
8-Hour Standards Among All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion, for Five Location-
Specific O3 Seasons Based on 2002, 2003, and 2004 O3 Concentrations*
Location
Atlanta
Chicago
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Atlanta
Chicago
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Atlanta
Chicago
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the
Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
A Recent Year of Air Quality
0.084/4***
0.074/4
0.064/4
Based on 2002 Air Quality Data
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.8%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.6%
(0.2%- 1.1%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
Based on 2003 Air Quality Data
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
Based on 2004 Air Quality Data
0.2%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
*Percents are median (0.5 fractile) percents of occurrences. Percents in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty
surrounding the O3 coefficient.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard
is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-
year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
Abt Associates Inc.
3-54
December 2006
-------
Table 3-22. Number of All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion Estimated to Experience At Least One
Lung Function Response (Change in FEV1>=15%) Associated with Exposure to O3 Concentrations
That Just Meet the Current and Two Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for Location-Specific
O3 Seasons, Based on 2002, 2003, and 2004 O3 Concentrations*
Location
Atlanta
Chicago
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Atlanta
Chicago
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Atlanta
Chicago
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Number of All Children (in 1000s) Estimated to Experience at Least One Lung Function Response Associated
with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
A Recent Year of Air Quality
0.084/4***
0.074/4
0.064/4
Based on 2002 Air Quality Data
59
(40-81)
123
(83-169)
58
(38 - 80)
220
(150-297)
346
(244 - 462)
36
(21 - 54)
71
(41 - 106)
24
(1 1 - 38)
35
(7 - 62)
142
(79-216)
21
(8 - 34)
40
(15-66)
13
(3 - 24)
18
(1 - 35)
81
(29-138)
11
(1-21)
20
(2 - 40)
7
(0-14)
7
(0-14)
43
(3 - 86)
Based on 2003 Air Quality Data
34
(20-51)
52
(25-81)
72
(49 - 98)
309
(221 - 406)
223
(145-312)
23
(10-37)
39
(15-65)
19
(6 - 32)
37
(9 - 65)
84
(34-140)
13
(3 - 24)
22
(3 - 42)
11
(1-21)
18
(2 - 35)
46
(7 - 88)
7
(0-15)
12
(0 - 26)
5
(0-12)
6
(0-14)
24
(0 - 54)
Based on 2004 Air Quality Data
34
(19-51)
27
(6 - 49)
57
(37 - 79)
220
(149-298)
112
(55-176)
20
(8 - 34)
15
(1-31)
23
(10-37)
34
(5 - 62)
43
(6 - 84)
12
(2 - 22)
9
(0-21)
13
(3 - 24)
17
(1 - 36)
25
(0 - 56)
6
(0-14)
5
(0-13)
7
(0-14)
6
(0-14)
14
(0 - 35)
"Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) numbers of children. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty
surrounding the O3 coefficient.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest 1000.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is
0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year
period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
Abt Associates Inc.
3-55
December 2006
-------
Table 3-23. Percent of All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion Estimated to Experience At Least One
Lung Function Response (Change in FEV1>=15%) Associated with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That
Just Meet the Current and Two Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for Location-Specific O3
Seasons, Based on 2002, 2003, and 2004 O3 Concentrations*
Location
Atlanta
Chicago
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Atlanta
Chicago
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Atlanta
Chicago
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Percent of All Children Estimated to Experience at Least One Lung Function Response Associated with O3
Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
A Recent Year of Air Quality
0.084/4***
0.074/4
0.064/4
Based on 2002 Air Quality Data
6.3%
(4.2% - 8.6%)
6.3%
(4.2% - 8.7%)
5.3%
(3.5% - 7.4%)
6%
(4.1% -8.1%)
8.3%
(5.9% - 1 1 .2%)
3.8%
(2.2% - 5.7%)
3.6%
(2.1% -5.4%)
2.2%
(1%-3.5%)
0.9%
(0.2% -1.7%)
3.4%
(1 .9% - 5.2%)
2.2%
(0.9% - 3.6%)
2%
(0.8% - 3.4%)
1 .2%
(0.3% - 2.2%)
0.5%
(0%-1%)
2%
(0.7% - 3.3%)
1 .2%
(0.1% -2.2%)
1%
(0.1% -2.1%)
0.6%
(0% - 1 .3%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
1%
(0.1% -2.1%)
Based on 2003 Air Quality Data
3.6%
(2.1% -5.4%)
2.6%
(1 .3% - 4.2%)
6.6%
(4.5% - 9%)
8.4%
(6% -11.1%)
5.4%
(3.5% - 7.5%)
2.4%
(1.1% -3.9%)
2%
(0.8% - 3.3%)
1.7%
(0.6% - 3%)
1%
(0.2% - 1 .8%)
2%
(0.8% - 3.4%)
1 .4%
(0.3% - 2.5%)
1.1%
(0.2% - 2.2%)
1%
(0.1% -1.9%)
0.5%
(0.1% -1%)
1.1%
(0.2% -2.1%)
0.7%
(0% - 1 .6%)
0.6%
(0% - 1 .3%)
0.5%
(0%-1.1%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.6%
(0% - 1 .3%)
Based on 2004 Air Quality Data
3.6%
(2% - 5.4%)
1 .4%
(0.3% - 2.5%)
5.2%
(3.4% - 7.3%)
6%
(4.1% -8.1%)
2.7%
(1 .3% - 4.2%)
2.2%
(0.9% - 3.6%)
0.8%
(0% - 1 .6%)
2.1%
(0.9% - 3.4%)
0.9%
(0.1% -1.7%)
1%
(0.2% - 2%)
1 .2%
(0.2% - 2.3%)
0.5%
(0%-1.1%)
1 .2%
(0.2% - 2.2%)
0.5%
(0%-1%)
0.6%
(0% - 1 .3%)
0.7%
(0% - 1 .5%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.6%
(0% - 1 .3%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.9%)
"Percents are median (0.5 fractile) percents of children. Percents in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty
surrounding the O3 coefficient.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is
0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year
period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
Abt Associates Inc.
3-56
December 2006
-------
Figure 3-11. Estimated Percent Reductions From the Current Standard to Two Alternative
Standards in All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion Experiencing at Least One O3-
Related Decrement in FEVi >15%, Separately for Each of Five Locations*
Figure 3-lla. Based on 2004 Air Quality**
100%
2004 air quality
0.084/4 0.074/4
Alternative Standards
0.064/4
-Atlanta: 20 (8 - 34); 2.2% (0.9% - 3.6%)
-Chicago: 15 (1 - 31); 0.8% (0% - 1.6%)
Houston: 23 (10 - 37); 2.1% (0.9% - 3.4%)
Los Angeles: 34 (5 - 62); 0.9% (0.1% - 1.7%)
• New York: 43 (6 - 84); 1% (0.2% - 2%)
* An 8-hr average standard, denoted m/n is characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily
maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 - 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average.
The 4th daily maximum standards, denoted m/4, require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima
over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm). The incidence (and 95% credible
interval) and percent of total incidence (and 95% credible interval) when O3 concentrations just meet the
current standard are shown for each location in the box below each figure.
**The percent reduction from the current standard (0.084/4) to 2004 air quality was omitted for Los
Angeles because it was so large in magnitude (-547%).
Abt Associates Inc.
3-57
December 2006
-------
Figure 3-llb. Based on 2003 Air Quality*
100%
-200%
2003 air quality
0.084/4 0.074/4
Alternative Standards
0.064/4
-Atlanta: 23 (10 - 37); 2.4% (1.1% - 3.9%)
-Chicago: 39 (15 - 65); 2% (0.8% - 3.3%)
Houston: 19 (6 - 32); 1.7% (0.6% - 3%)
Los Angeles: 37 (9 - 65); 1% (0.2% - 1.8%)
•New York: 84 (34 - 140); 2% (0.8% - 3.4%)
**The percent reductions from the current standard (0.084/4) to 2003 air quality were omitted for Los
Angeles and Houston because they were so large in magnitude (-735% in Los Angeles and -279% in
Houston).
Abt Associates Inc.
3-58
December 2006
-------
Figure 3-1 Ic. Based on 2002 Air Quality*
100%
-200%
2002 air quality
0.084/4 0.074/4
Alternative Standards
0.064/4
Atlanta: 36 (21 - 54); 3.8% (2.2% - 5.7%)
Chicago: 71 (41 - 106); 3.6% (2.1% - 5.4%)
Houston: 24 (11 - 38); 2.2% (1% - 3.5%)
Los Angeles: 35 (7 - 62); 0.9% (0.2% - 1.7%)
New York: 142 (79 - 216); 3.4% (1.9% - 5.2%)
**The percent reduction from the current standard (0.084/4) to 2002 air quality was omitted for Los
Angeles because it was so large in magnitude (-529%).
Abt Associates Inc.
3-59
December 2006
-------
In the great majority of cases, the estimated numbers of occurrences of lung function
response associated with exposure to Os concentrations that just meet the current standard
among all school age children (ages 5-18) engaged in moderate exercise for at least one
8-hour period during the 63 season are substantially lower than the corresponding
numbers associated with exposure to "as is" 63 concentrations in any of the three years
considered. As would be expected, the numbers of occurrences decline substantially as
the standards become more stringent. Comparing the current standard to the 0.064, 4th
daily maximum standard, the numbers of occurrences decline from 53% in Atlanta and
New York in 2004 to as much as 91% in Los Angeles in 2003.
3.2.2.2.2 Results for asthmatic school age children
Lung function response of interest for asthmatic school age children was defined as a
decrement in FEVi > 10%. The estimated numbers and percentages of occurrences of
lung function response associated with exposure to 63 concentrations that just meet the
current and each of the two alternative daily maximum 8-hour standards among asthmatic
school age children (ages 5-18) engaged in moderate exercise for at least one 8-hour
period during the 63 season are given in Tables 3-24 and 3-25, respectively. The
numbers and percentages of these children estimated to experience at least one lung
function response associated with exposure to Os concentrations that just meet the current
and each of the two alternative standards are given in Tables 3-26 and 3-27, respectively.
Results based on 2002, 2003, and 2004 63 concentrations are shown in each table.
The percent reductions in numbers of school age children experiencing at least one
occurrence of lung function response when Os concentrations are reduced from those just
meeting the current standard to those that would just meet each alternative standard, as
well as a recent year of air quality, are summarized in Figures 3-12a, b, and c, using
2004, 2003, and 2002 air quality data, respectively.
Abt Associates Inc. 3-60 December 2006
-------
Table 3-24. Estimated Number of Occurrences of Lung Function Response (Change in FEV1>=10%) Associated with
Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Two Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour
Standards Among Asthmatic Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion, for Five Location-
Specific O3 Seasons, Based on 2002, 2003, and 2004 O3 Concentrations*
Location
Atlanta
Chicago
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Atlanta
Chicago
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Atlanta
Chicago
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Number of Occurrences (in 1000s) of Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet
the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
A Recent Year of Air Quality
0.084/4***
0.074/4
0.064/4
Based on 2002 Air Quality Data
145
(68 - 244)
257
(125-427)
96
(45-158)
561
(255 - 942)
834
(435-1356)
109
(44-190)
186
(75 - 324)
52
(20 - 88)
182
(42 - 335)
509
(200 - 894)
81
(26-146)
137
(44 - 247)
34
(11-57)
102
(18-189)
385
(119-700)
58
(13-108)
97
(22-182)
14
(5-19)
25
(4 - 39)
275
(59-519)
Based on 2003 Air Quality Data
106
(40-187)
163
(56-291)
131
(64-213)
690
(352-1119)
506
(215-868)
83
(26-150)
137
(42 - 250)
55
(19-95)
177
(45 - 320)
304
(88 - 557)
61
(14-114)
100
(22-187)
32
(9 - 55)
86
(18-153)
227
(47-431)
43
(7 - 82)
69
(9-134)
7
(3-6)
11
(4-8)
158
(19-310)
Based on 2004 Air Quality Data
109
(38-196)
114
(27-214)
110
(51 -181)
660
(308-1108)
399
(131 -720)
82
(22-151)
80
(12-154)
61
(22-103)
219
(49 - 405)
240
(46 - 458)
61
(12-116)
57
(5-113)
40
(12-68)
134
(21 - 253)
179
(21 - 353)
44
(5 - 86)
38
(1 - 78)
18
(5 - 27)
46
(4 - 84)
124
(6 - 252)
"Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) numbers of occurrences. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty
surrounding the O3 coefficient.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest 1000.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is
0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year
period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
Abt Associates Inc.
3-61
December 2006
-------
Table 3-25. Estimated Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function Response (Change in FEV1>=10%) Associated
with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Two Alternative Daily Maximum
8-Hour Standards Among Asthmatic Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion, for Five
Location-Specific O3 Seasons, Based on 2002, 2003, and 2004 O3 Concentrations*
Location
Atlanta
Chicago
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Atlanta
Chicago
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Atlanta
Chicago
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the
Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
A Recent Year of Air Quality
0.084/4***
0.074/4
0.064/4
Based on 2002 Air Quality Data
1 .3%
(0.6% - 2.2%)
1 .5%
(0.7% - 2.4%)
0.5%
(0.3% - 0.9%)
1%
(0.5%- 1.7%)
1 .9%
(1%-3.1%)
1%
(0.4% - 1 .7%)
1.1%
(0.4% - 1 .8%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
1.2%
(0.5% -2.1%)
0.7%
(0.2%- 1.3%)
0.8%
(0.2%- 1.4%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.9%
(0.3%- 1.6%)
0.5%
(0.1%- 1%)
0.6%
(0.1% -1%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0.6%
(0.1% -1.2%)
Based on 2003 Air Quality Data
1%
(0.4%- 1.7%)
0.9%
(0.3%- 1.6%)
0.7%
(0.4%- 1.2%)
1 .2%
(0.6% - 2%)
1 .2%
(0.5% - 2%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .4%)
0.8%
(0.2% - 1 .4%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .3%)
0.5%
(0.1%- 1%)
0.6%
(0.1%- 1.1%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.5%
(0.1%- 1%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.8%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.7%)
Based on 2004 Air Quality Data
1%
(0.3%- 1.8%)
0.7%
(0.2%- 1.2%)
0.6%
(0.3%- 1%)
1 .2%
(0.6% - 2%)
0.9%
(0.3%- 1.7%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .4%)
0.5%
(0.1% -0.9%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.6%
(0.1% -1.1%)
0.5%
(0.1%- 1%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.8%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.8%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
*Percents are median (0.5 fractile) percents of occurrences. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty
surrounding the O3 coefficient.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard
is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-
year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
Abt Associates Inc.
3-62
December 2006
-------
Table 3-26. Number of Asthmatic Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion Estimated to Experience At
Least One Lung Function Response (Change in FEV1>=10%) Associated with Exposure to O3
Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Two Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for
Five Location-Specific O3 Seasons, Based on 2002, 2003, and 2004 O3 Concentrations*
Location
Atlanta
Chicago
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Atlanta
Chicago
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Atlanta
Chicago
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Number of Asthmatic Children (in 1000s) Estimated to Experience at Least One Lung Function Response
Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
A Recent Year of Air Quality
0.084/4***
0.074/4
0.064/4
Based on 2002 Air Quality Data
18
(14-23)
40
(32 - 53)
17
(13-23)
61
(51 - 79)
118
(97-147)
13
(10-18)
27
(20 - 39)
9
(6-14)
16
(11-24)
63
(47-91)
9
(6-13)
18
(12-29)
6
(4-9)
9
(6-14)
43
(29 - 67)
5
(3-9)
11
(7-19)
4
(2-6)
4
(2-6)
27
(16-44)
Based on 2003 Air Quality Data
12
(9-17)
21
(15-32)
20
(17-26)
77
(65 - 95)
81
(64-109)
9
(6-13)
18
(12-28)
8
(5-12)
16
(12-25)
42
(29 - 64)
6
(4-10)
12
(7-19)
5
(3-8)
9
(6-14)
27
(17-44)
4
(2-6)
7
(4-12)
3
(2-5)
3
(2-5)
17
(9 - 27)
Based on 2004 Air Quality Data
12
(9-17)
14
(9 - 22)
17
(14-23)
62
(52-81)
51
(37 - 76)
8
(6-12)
9
(5-14)
9
(6-14)
16
(11-25)
26
(16-42)
5
(3-9)
6
(3-9)
6
(4-10)
9
(6-14)
17
(9 - 28)
3
(2-5)
3
(1-6)
4
(2-6)
4
(2-6)
11
(4-17)
"Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) numbers of children. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty
surrounding the O3 coefficient.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest 1000.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is
0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year
period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
Abt Associates Inc.
3-63
December 2006
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Table 3-27. Percent of Asthmatic Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion Estimated to Experience At
Least One Lung Function Response (Change in FEV1>=10%) Associated with Exposure to O3
Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Two Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for
Five Location-Specific O3 Seasons, Based on 2002, 2003, and 2004 O3 Concentrations*
Location
Atlanta
Chicago
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Atlanta
Chicago
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Atlanta
Chicago
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Percent of Asthmatic Children Estimated to Experience at Least One Lung Function Response Associated with
O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
A Recent Year of Air Quality
0.084/4***
0.074/4
0.064/4
Based on 2002 Air Quality Data
15.2%
(12.2% -19.8%)
14.5%
(11. 6% -18.9%)
12.5%
(9.9% -16.7%)
13.3%
(11.1% -17.2%)
18.3%
(15.1% -22.9%)
10.9%
(8.3% -15.3%)
9.8%
(7.3% -14%)
6.7%
(4.8% -10.1%)
3.4%
(2.5% - 5.3%)
9.8%
(7.3% -14.1%)
7.3%
(5.1% -11. 2%)
6.5%
(4.5% -10.2%)
4.4%
(2.8% - 7%)
2%
(1 .4% - 3%)
6.6%
(4.5% -10.3%)
4.6%
(2.9% - 7.4%)
4.1%
(2.5% - 6.7%)
2.7%
(1 .5% - 4.2%)
0.8%
(0.5% - 1 .2%)
4.2%
(2.6% - 6.8%)
Based on 2003 Air Quality Data
10.1%
(7.6% -14.5%)
7.6%
(5.5% - 1 1 .5%)
15.1%
(12.3% -19.5%)
16.8%
(14.3% -20.9%)
12.7%
(10% -17%)
7.5%
(5.4% - 1 1 .5%)
6.3%
(4.3% - 9.8%)
5.9%
(4% - 9.2%)
3.5%
(2.6% - 5.4%)
6.5%
(4.5% -10%)
5.1%
(3.3% - 8.2%)
4.2%
(2.6% - 6.8%)
3.9%
(2.4% - 6.2%)
1 .9%
(1 .4% - 3%)
4.2%
(2.6% - 6.9%)
3.2%
(1 .8% - 5.2%)
2.6%
(1 .4% - 4.2%)
2.2%
(1.1% -3.4%)
0.7%
(0.5% - 1 .2%)
2.6%
(1 .3% - 4.2%)
Based on 2004 Air Quality Data
9.9%
(7.4% -14.2%)
4.9%
(3.1% -7.8%)
12.6%
(10% -16.8%)
13.6%
(11. 4% -17.7%)
8%
(5.8% - 1 1 .8%)
6.9%
(4.8% -10.6%)
3.2%
(1.8% -5.1%)
6.7%
(4.7% -10.1%)
3.5%
(2.5% - 5.5%)
4.1%
(2.5% - 6.6%)
4.6%
(2.9% - 7.4%)
2.1%
(1%-3.4%)
4.4%
(2.9% - 7%)
2%
(1.4% -3.1%)
2.7%
(1 .4% - 4.3%)
2.9%
(1.6% -4.7%)
1 .2%
(0.3% - 2%)
2.6%
(1 .5% - 4.2%)
0.8%
(0.5% - 1 .2%)
1 .6%
(0.6% - 2.7%)
"Percents are median (0.5 fractile) percents of children. Percents in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty
surrounding the O3 coefficient.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is
0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year
period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
Abt Associates Inc.
3-64
December 2006
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Figure 3-12. Estimated Percent Reductions From the Current Standard to Two Alternative
Standards in Asthmatic Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion Experiencing at Least
One Os-Related Decrement in FEVi>10%, Separately for Each of Five Locations*
Figure 3-12a. Based on 2004 Air Quality**
100%
£
3
O
o>
o
c re
re *;
c
0)
o
fc -150%
Q.
-200%
-100%
2004 air quality
0.084/4 0.074/4
Alternative Standards
0.064/4
Atlanta: 8 (6 - 12); 6.9% (4.8% - 10.6%)
Chicago: 9 (5 - 14); 3.2% (1.8% - 5.1%)
Houston: 9 (6 - 14); 6.7% (4.7% - 10.1%)
Los Angeles: 16 (11 - 25); 3.5% (2.5% - 5.5%)
New York: 26 (16 - 42); 4.1% (2.5% - 6.6%)
* An 8-hr average standard, denoted m/n is characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily
maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 - 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average.
The 4th daily maximum standards, denoted m/4, require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima
over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm). The incidence (and 95% credible
interval) and percent of total incidence (and 95% credible interval) when O3 concentrations just meet the
current standard are shown for each location in the box below each figure.
** The percent reduction from the current standard (0.084/4) to 2004 air quality was omitted for Los
Angeles because it was so large in magnitude (-288%).
Abt Associates Inc.
3-65
December 2006
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Figure 3-12b. Based on 2003 Air Quality*
100%
-200%
2003 air quality
0.084/4 0.074/4
Alternative Standards
0.064/4
Atlanta: 9 (6 - 13); 7.5% (5.4% - 11.5%)
Chicago: 18 (12 - 28); 6.3% (4.3% - 9.8%)
Houston: 8 (5 - 12); 5.9% (4% - 9.2%)
Los Angeles: 16 (12 - 25); 3.5% (2.6% - 5.4%)
New York: 42 (29 - 64); 6.5% (4.5% - 10%)
** The percent reduction from the current standard (0.084/4) to 2003 air quality was omitted for Los
Angeles because it was so large in magnitude (-381%).
Abt Associates Inc.
3-66
December 2006
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Figure 3-12c. Based on 2002 Air Quality*
2002 air quality
0.084/4 0.074/4
Alternative Standards
0.064/4
-Atlanta: 13 (10 - 18); 10.9% (8.3% - 15.3%)
-Chicago: 27 (20 - 39); 9.8% (7.3% - 14%)
Houston: 9 (6 - 14); 6.7% (4.8% - 10.1%)
Los Angeles: 16 (11 - 24); 3.4% (2.5% - 5.3%)
-New York: 63 (47 - 91); 9.8% (7.3% - 14.1%)
** The percent reduction from the current standard (0.084/4) to 2002 air quality was omitted for Los
Angeles because it was so large in magnitude (-281%).
Abt Associates Inc.
3-67
December 2006
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The results for asthmatic school age children followed the same patterns as those for
all school age children. In the great majority of cases, the estimated numbers of
occurrences of lung function response associated with exposure to 63 concentrations that
just meet the current standard among asthmatic school age children (ages 5-18) engaged
in moderate exercise for at least one 8-hour period during the Os season are substantially
lower than the corresponding numbers associated with exposure to "as is" Os
concentrations in any of the three years considered. As would be expected, the numbers
of occurrences decline substantially as the standards become more stringent. Comparing
the current standard to the 0.064, 4th daily maximum standard, the numbers of
occurrences decline from 46% in New York in 2002 and Atlanta in 2004 to as much as
94% in Los Angeles in 2003.
3.3 Sensitivity Analyses
Two sources of uncertainty about estimates of Os-related lung function response
among children that have been of particular concern are the estimates of PRB that go into
the calculations and the form of the exposure-response function. We ran sensitivity
analyses to address concerns about both of these sources of uncertainty.
3.3.1 PRB sensitivity analysis
The Os risk assessment presented in this report calculates the risks associated with
Os concentrations - either "as is" Os concentrations or Os concentrations "rolled back" to
just meet a standard - above PRB. The uncertainty about the PRB concentrations in each
of the risk assessment locations induces a corresponding uncertainty about our estimates
of risk. We selected three locations - Atlanta, Los Angeles, and New York - for this
sensitivity analysis, and calculated lung function responses using (1) the original PRB
estimates, (2) lower PRB estimates, and (3) higher PRB estimates for each location. For
Los Angeles and New York, the lower PRB estimates were calculated by subtracting 5
ppb from the original PRB estimates; for Atlanta, the lower PRB estimates were
calculated by subtracting 10 ppb from the original PRB estimates. In all three locations,
the higher PRB estimates were calculated by adding 5 ppb to the original PRB estimates.4
The analyses were run for all school age children, for whom "lung function response"
was defined as a decrement in FEVi >15%, and for asthmatic school age children, for
whom "lung function response" was defined as a decrement in FEVi >10%.
4 Summarizing their assessment of the validity of the GEOS-CHEM model, the O3 CD (EPA, 2006a) states,
"in conclusion, we estimate that the PRB ozone values reported by Fiore et al. (2003) for afternoon surface
air over the United States are likely 10 ppbv too high in the southeast in summer, and accurate within 5
ppbv in other regions and seasons." These error estimates are based on comparison of model output with
observations for conditions that most nearly reflect those given in the PRB definition, i.e., at the lower end
of the probability distribution.
Abt Associates Inc. 3-68 December 2006
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Each table below shows the impact of changing PRB estimates on the assessment
of lung function decrement associated with exposure to "as is" Os concentrations over
PRB levels, as well as Os concentrations that just meet each of three alternative 8-hour
daily maximum standards - 0.084 ppm, 0.074 ppm, and 0.064 ppm, 4th daily maximum -
over PRB levels. In all cases, the results are for school age children, ages 5-18 (either
all such children or asthmatic children only) engaged in moderate exercise for at least one
8-hour period during the Os season in a given year. Results for both 2002 and 2004 are
included in each table. As with the results presented in Section 3.2, all estimated
numbers (of children and of occurrences) were rounded to the nearest 1000, and all
percentages were rounded to one decimal place.
Table 3-28 shows the impact of alternative estimates of PRB on the estimated
number of occurrences of lung function decrement among all school age children. Tables
3-29 and 3-30 show the impact on the estimated number and percent, respectively, of
school age children estimated to experience at least one occurrence of lung function
response. Tables 3-31, 3-32, and 3-33 show the corresponding results for asthmatic
school age children.
Abt Associates Inc. 3-69 December 2006
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Table 3-28. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated Number of Occurrences of
Lung Function Response (Change in FEV1>=15%) Among All Children (Age 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion Associated
with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for Location-Specific
O3 Seasons*
Location
Atlanta
Atlanta - with lower PRB
Atlanta -with higher PRB
Los Angeles
Los Angeles - with lower PRB
Los Angeles - with higher PRB
New York
New York - with lower PRB
New York - with higher PRB
Number of Lung Function Responses (in 1000s), Based on Adjusting
2004 O3 Concentrations**
2004 Air Quality
191
(29 - 456)
213
(29 - 553)
175
(29 - 396)
1470
(393 - 3073)
1559
(393 - 3424)
1363
(393 - 2687)
563
(77 - 1 383)
602
(77 - 1 553)
510
(77-1178)
0.084/4***
131
(1 0 - 344)
153
(1 0 - 440)
115
(1 0 - 283)
371
(6- 1044)
460
(6-1396)
265
(6 - 659)
296
(7-851)
334
(7- 1021)
243
(7 - 646)
0.074/4
91
(2 - 260)
112
(2 - 356)
75
(2 - 1 99)
220
(1 -651)
308
(1 - 1 003)
113
(1 - 266)
209
(0 - 648)
247
(0-817)
156
(0 - 442)
0.064/4
62
(0-191)
83
(0 - 287)
46
(0-130)
75
(0 - 220)
164
(0-571)
0
(0-0)
139
(0 - 458)
177
(0 - 627)
86
(0 - 252)
Number of Lung Function Responses (in 1000s), Based on Adjusting
2002 O3 Concentrations**
2002 Air Quality
290
(88 - 593)
312
(88-691)
274
(88 - 532)
1265
(355 - 2642)
1352
(355 - 2988)
1160
(355 - 2262)
1522
(585 - 2885)
1562
(585 - 3058)
1468
(585 - 2675)
0.084/4***
196
(39 - 442)
218
(39 - 539)
179
(39 - 380)
315
(9 - 869)
402
(9-1215)
210
(9 - 489)
753
(140-1727)
793
(140-1900)
699
(140-1517)
0.074/4
131
(12-330)
153
(12-427)
115
(12-268)
173
(1 - 496)
260
(1 - 842)
68
(1-116)
513
(40- 1314)
552
(40- 1486)
458
(40-1104)
0.064/4
86
(1 - 240)
108
(1 - 338)
70
(1 -178)
46
(0-112)
133
(0 - 458)
0
(0-0)
339
(4 - 962)
378
(4-1135)
284
(4 - 753)
"Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) numbers of occurrences. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty
surrounding the O3 coefficient.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest 1000.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 - 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr
average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
Abt Associates Inc.
3-70
December 2006
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Table 3-29. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated Number of All Children (Ages 5-18)
Engaged in Moderate Exertion Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response (Change in FEV1>=15%) Associated
with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for Location-Specific
O3 Seasons*
Location
Atlanta
Atlanta - with lower PRB
Atlanta -with higher PRB
Los Angeles
Los Angeles - with lower PRB
Los Angeles - with higher PRB
New York
New York - with lower PRB
New York - with higher PRB
Number of All Children (in 1000s) with at Least One Response,
Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations**
2004 Air Quality
34
(19-51)
35
(19-54)
33
(19-48)
220
(1 49 - 298)
225
(1 49 - 31 2)
218
(1 49 - 293)
112
(55-176)
114
(55- 183)
110
(55- 169)
0.084/4***
20
(8 - 34)
21
(8 - 36)
19
(8-31)
34
(5 - 62)
38
(5 - 75)
32
(5 - 57)
43
(6 - 84)
45
(6 - 92)
41
(6 - 78)
0.074/4
12
(2 - 22)
12
(2 - 25)
11
(2-19)
17
(1 - 36)
22
(1 - 49)
16
(1 -31)
25
(0 - 56)
27
(0 - 63)
23
(0 - 49)
0.064/4
6
(0-14)
7
(0-16)
5
(0-11)
6
(0-14)
11
(0 - 27)
4
(0-9)
14
(0 - 35)
16
(0 - 43)
12
(0 - 29)
Number of All Children (in 1000s) with at Least One Response,
Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations**
2002 Air Quality
59
(40 - 81 )
60
(40 - 84)
58
(40 - 79)
220
(1 50 - 297)
225
(150-311)
218
(1 50 - 292)
346
(244 - 462)
348
(244 - 469)
343
(244 - 455)
0.084/4***
36
(21 - 54)
37
(21 - 56)
35
(21 -51)
35
(7 - 62)
39
(7 - 75)
33
(7 - 57)
142
(79-216)
144
(79 - 222)
140
(79 - 208)
0.074/4
21
(8 - 34)
21
(8 - 37)
20
(8-31)
18
(1 - 35)
23
(1 - 48)
16
(1 - 30)
81
(29-138)
83
(29- 145)
79
(29- 131)
0.064/4
11
(1 -21)
12
(1 - 24)
10
(1 -18)
7
(0-14)
11
(0 - 27)
5
(0-9)
43
(3 - 86)
45
(3 - 93)
41
(3 - 79)
"Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) numbers of children. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty
surrounding the O3 coefficient.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest 1000.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr
average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
Abt Associates Inc.
3-71
December 2006
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Table 3-30. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated Percent of All Children (Ages 5-18)
Engaged in Moderate Exertion Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response (Change in FEV1>=15%) Associated
with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for Location-Specific
O3 Seasons*
Location
Atlanta
Atlanta - with lower PRB
Atlanta -with higher PRB
Los Angeles
Los Angeles - with lower PRB
Los Angeles - with higher PRB
New York
New York - with lower PRB
New York - with higher PRB
Percent of All Children with at Least One Response, Based on
Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations**
2004 Air Quality
3.6%
(2% - 5.4%)
3.7%
(2% - 5.7%)
3.5%
(2% -5.1%)
6%
(4.1% -8.1%)
6.1%
(4.1% -8.5%)
5.9%
(4.1% -8%)
2.7%
(1 .3% - 4.2%)
2.8%
(1 .3% - 4.4%)
2.6%
(1.3% -4.1%)
0.084/4***
2.2%
(0.9% - 3.6%)
2.2%
(0.9% - 3.9%)
2.1%
(0.9% - 3.3%)
0.9%
(0.1% -1.7%)
1%
(0.1% -2%)
0.9%
(0.1% -1.5%)
1%
(0.2% - 2%)
1.1%
(0.2% - 2.2%)
1%
(0.2% - 1 .9%)
0.074/4
1.2%
(0.2% - 2.3%)
1.3%
(0.2% - 2.6%)
1.1%
(0.2% - 2%)
0.5%
(0% - 1 %)
0.6%
(0% - 1 .3%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.8%)
0.6%
(0% - 1 .3%)
0.7%
(0% - 1 .5%)
0.5%
(0% - 1 .2%)
0.064/4
0.7%
(0% - 1 .5%)
0.7%
(0% - 1 .7%)
0.6%
(0% - 1 .2%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.9%)
0.4%
(0% - 1 %)
0.3%
(0% - 0.7%)
Percent of All Children with at Least One Response, Based on
Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations**
2002 Air Quality
6.3%
(4.2% - 8.6%)
6.3%
(4.2% - 8.9%)
6.2%
(4.2% - 8.3%)
6%
(4.1% -8.1%)
6.1%
(4.1% -8.5%)
6%
(4.1% -8%)
8.3%
(5.9% - 1 1 .2%)
8.4%
(5.9% - 1 1 .3%)
8.3%
(5.9% -11%)
0.084/4***
3.8%
(2.2% - 5.7%)
3.9%
(2.2% - 6%)
3.7%
(2.2% - 5.4%)
0.9%
(0.2% - 1 .7%)
1.1%
(0.2% - 2%)
0.9%
(0.2% - 1 .5%)
3.4%
(1 .9% - 5.2%)
3.5%
(1 .9% - 5.4%)
3.4%
(1 .9% - 5%)
0.074/4
2.2%
(0.9% - 3.6%)
2.3%
(0.9% - 3.9%)
2.1%
(0.9% - 3.3%)
0.5%
(0% - 1 %)
0.6%
(0% - 1 .3%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.8%)
2%
(0.7% - 3.3%)
2%
(0.7% - 3.5%)
1.9%
(0.7% - 3.2%)
0.064/4
1.2%
(0.1% -2.2%)
1.2%
(0.1% -2.5%)
1.1%
(0.1% -1.9%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
1%
(0.1% -2.1%)
1.1%
(0.1% -2.2%)
1%
(0.1% -1.9%)
"Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) percents of children. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty
surrounding the O3 coefficient.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr
average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
Abt Associates Inc.
3-72
December 2006
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Table 3-31. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated Number of Occurrences of
Lung Function Response (Change in FEV1>=10%) Among Asthmatic Children (Age 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion Associated
with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for Location-Specific
O3 Seasons*
Location
Atlanta
Atlanta - with lower PRB
Atlanta -with higher PRB
Los Angeles
Los Angeles - with lower PRB
Los Angeles - with higher PRB
New York
New York - with lower PRB
New York - with higher PRB
Number of Lung Function Responses (in 1000s), Based on Adjusting
2004 O3 Concentrations**
2004 Air Quality
109
(38-196)
129
(38 - 245)
96
(38-167)
660
(308 - 1 1 08)
724
(308-1256)
587
(308 - 950)
399
(1 31 - 720)
441
(1 31 - 822)
347
(1 31 - 600)
0.084/4***
82
(22 -151)
101
(22 - 200)
69
(22 -121)
219
(49 - 405)
283
(49 - 553)
146
(49 - 247)
240
(46 - 458)
281
(46 - 560)
187
(46 - 339)
0.074/4
61
(12-116)
80
(12- 165)
48
(12-86)
134
(21 - 253)
198
(21 -401)
61
(21 - 95)
179
(21 - 353)
220
(21 - 455)
126
(21 - 233)
0.064/4
44
(5 - 86)
63
(5- 135)
30
(5 - 56)
46
(4 - 84)
110
(4 - 232)
0
(4-0)
124
(6 - 252)
165
(6 - 354)
71
(6- 133)
Number of Lung Function Responses (in 1000s), Based on Adjusting
2002 O3 Concentrations**
2002 Air Quality
145
(68 - 244)
165
(68 - 294)
132
(68 - 21 5)
561
(255 - 942)
625
(255-1089)
490
(255 - 787)
834
(435-1356)
876
(435- 1460)
781
(435- 1234)
0.084/4***
109
(44 - 1 90)
129
(44 - 240)
96
(44 -161)
182
(42 - 335)
245
(42 - 482)
110
(42 - 1 80)
509
(200 - 894)
551
(200 - 998)
455
(200 - 773)
0.074/4
81
(26-146)
101
(26- 196)
68
(26-117)
102
(18- 189)
166
(18-336)
31
(18-34)
385
(119-700)
427
(119-805)
331
(119-579)
0.064/4
58
(13-108)
78
(13- 158)
44
(1 3 - 78)
25
(4 - 39)
88
(4 - 1 86)
0
(4-0)
275
(59 - 51 9)
317
(59 - 624)
221
(59 - 398)
"Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) numbers of occurrences. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty
surrounding the O3 coefficient.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest 1000.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr
average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
Abt Associates Inc.
3-73
December 2006
-------
Table 3-32. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated Number of Asthmatic Children
(Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response (Change in FEV1>=10%)
Associated with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for
Location-Specific O3 Seasons*
Location
Atlanta
Atlanta - with lower PRB
Atlanta -with higher PRB
Los Angeles
Los Angeles - with lower PRB
Los Angeles - with higher PRB
New York
New York - with lower PRB
New York - with higher PRB
Number of Asthmatic Children (in 1000s) with at Least One
Response, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations**
2004 Air Quality
12
(9-17)
12
(9-18)
11
(9-16)
62
(52 - 81 )
65
(52 - 86)
61
(52 - 79)
51
(37 - 76)
53
(37 - 80)
50
(37 - 73)
0.084/4***
8
(6-12)
9
(6-14)
7
(6-11)
16
(1 1 - 25)
19
(1 1 - 30)
15
(1 1 - 23)
26
(1 6 - 42)
28
(1 6 - 46)
24
(1 6 - 39)
0.074/4
5
(3-9)
6
(3-10)
5
(3-8)
9
(6-14)
12
(6-19)
8
(6-12)
17
(9 - 28)
19
(9 - 32)
16
(9 - 25)
0.064/4
3
(2-5)
4
(2-7)
3
(2-4)
4
(2-6)
6
(2-11)
3
(2-4)
11
(4-17)
12
(4-21)
9
(4-14)
Number of Asthmatic Children (in 1000s) with at Least One
Response, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations**
2002 Air Quality
18
(14-23)
18
(14-24)
17
(14-22)
61
(51 - 79)
64
(51 - 84)
60
(51 - 77)
118
(97-147)
119
(97- 151)
116
(97- 143)
0.084/4***
13
(10-18)
13
(10-19)
12
(10-17)
16
(1 1 - 24)
18
(1 1 - 29)
14
(1 1 - 22)
63
(47-91)
65
(47 - 94)
61
(47 - 87)
0.074/4
9
(6-13)
9
(6-14)
8
(6-12)
9
(6-14)
12
(6-19)
8
(6-12)
43
(29 - 67)
44
(29 - 70)
41
(29 - 63)
0.064/4
5
(3-9)
6
(3-10)
5
(3-8)
4
(2-6)
7
(2-11)
3
(2-4)
27
(1 6 - 44)
29
(1 6 - 48)
25
(1 6 - 40)
"Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) numbers of children. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty
surrounding the O3 coefficient.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest 1000.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr
average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
Abt Associates Inc.
3-74
December 2006
-------
Table 3-33. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated Percent of Asthmatic Children
(Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response (Change in FEV1>=10%)
Associated with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for
Location-Specific O3 Seasons*
Location
Atlanta
Atlanta - with lower PRB
Atlanta -with higher PRB
Los Angeles
Los Angeles - with lower PRB
Los Angeles - with higher PRB
New York
New York - with lower PRB
New York - with higher PRB
Percent of Asthmatic Children with at Least One Response, Based
on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations**
2004 Air Quality
15.2%
(12.2% -19.8%)
15.7%
(12.2% -20.8%)
14.7%
(12.2% -18.9%)
13.3%
(11.1% -17.2%)
13.9%
(11.1% -18.3%)
13.1%
(11.1% -16.8%)
18.3%
(15.1% -22.9%)
18.6%
(15.1% -23.4%)
18%
(15.1% -22.3%)
0.084/4***
10.9%
(8.3% -15.3%)
1 1 .3%
(8.3%- 16.3%)
10.4%
(8.3% -14.4%)
3.4%
(2.5% - 5.3%)
4%
(2.5% - 6.4%)
3.2%
(2.5% - 4.9%)
9.8%
(7.3% -14.1%)
10.1%
(7.3%- 14.7%)
9.5%
(7.3%- 13.6%)
0.074/4
7.3%
(5.1% -11. 2%)
7.8%
(5.1%- 12.2%)
6.8%
(5.1% -10.3%)
2%
(1 .4% - 3%)
2.6%
(1 .4% - 4.2%)
1.7%
(1 .4% - 2.6%)
6.6%
(4.5% -10.3%)
6.9%
(4.5%- 10.9%)
6.3%
(4.5% - 9.8%)
0.064/4
4.6%
(2.9% - 7.4%)
5%
(2.9% - 8.5%)
4.1%
(2.9% - 6.5%)
0.8%
(0.5% - 1 .2%)
1.4%
(0.5% - 2.3%)
0.6%
(0.5% - 0.8%)
4.2%
(2.6% - 6.8%)
4.5%
(2.6% - 7.4%)
3.9%
(2.6% - 6.3%)
Percent of Asthmatic Children with at Least One Response, Based
on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations**
2002 Air Quality
15.2%
(12.2% -19.8%)
15.7%
(12.2% -20.8%)
14.7%
(12.2% -18.9%)
13.3%
(11.1% -17.2%)
13.9%
(11.1% -18.3%)
13.1%
(11.1% -16.8%)
18.3%
(15.1% -22.9%)
18.6%
(15.1% -23.4%)
18%
(15.1% -22.3%)
0.084/4***
10.9%
(8.3% -15.3%)
1 1 .3%
(8.3%- 16.3%)
10.4%
(8.3% -14.4%)
3.4%
(2.5% - 5.3%)
4%
(2.5% - 6.4%)
3.2%
(2.5% - 4.9%)
9.8%
(7.3% -14.1%)
10.1%
(7.3%- 14.7%)
9.5%
(7.3%- 13.6%)
0.074/4
7.3%
(5.1% -11. 2%)
7.8%
(5.1%- 12.2%)
6.8%
(5.1% -10.3%)
2%
(1 .4% - 3%)
2.6%
(1 .4% - 4.2%)
1.7%
(1 .4% - 2.6%)
6.6%
(4.5% -10.3%)
6.9%
(4.5%- 10.9%)
6.3%
(4.5% - 9.8%)
0.064/4
4.6%
(2.9% - 7.4%)
5%
(2.9% - 8.5%)
4.1%
(2.9% - 6.5%)
0.8%
(0.5% - 1 .2%)
1.4%
(0.5% - 2.3%)
0.6%
(0.5% - 0.8%)
4.2%
(2.6% - 6.8%)
4.5%
(2.6% - 7.4%)
3.9%
(2.6% - 6.3%)
"Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) percents of children. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty
surrounding the O3 coefficient.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 - 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr
average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
Abt Associates Inc.
3-75
December 2006
-------
The impact of changing the assumed PRB levels varied substantially from one
location to another and from one standard to another. For example, assuming lower PRB
levels increased the estimated number of occurrences associated with 2002 "as is" air
quality among all children in New York by only 3 percent (from 1,522,000 to 1,562,000);
however, it increased the estimated number of occurrences associated with 63
concentrations that just meet the 0.064 4th daily maximum standard among all children in
Los Angeles by 189 percent (from 46,000 to 133,000), based on adjusting 2002 O3
concentrations, and by 119 percent (from 75,000 to 164,000), based on adjusting 2004 O3
concentrations.
The impact was similarly varied among asthmatic children. Assuming lower PRB
levels increased the estimated number of occurrences associated with 2002 "as is" air
quality among asthmatic children in New York by only 5 percent (from 834,000 to
876,000); however, it increased the estimated number of occurrences associated with 63
concentrations that just meet the 0.064 4th daily maximum standard among asthmatic
children in Los Angeles by 252 percent (from 25,000 to 88,000), based on adjusting 2002
63 concentrations, and by 139 percent (from 46,000 to 110,000), based on adjusting 2004
Os concentrations. As would be expected, however, the impact on the number of lung
function occurrences of assuming lower PRB levels increased from a recent year of air
quality to the current standard and from the current standard to successively more
stringent alternative standards, for both all children and asthmatic children. The impact
on the number of children with at least one lung function occurrence generally followed
the same pattern.
The impact of assuming higher PRB levels followed the same patterns but in the
opposite direction, resulting in negative percent changes in estimated numbers of lung
function occurrence that were successively greater in absolute value as we went from a
recent year of air quality to the current standard and from the current standard to
successively more stringent alternative standards. The impacts also varied substantially,
ranging from a 4 percent decrease in the estimated number of occurrences associated with
2002 "as is" air quality among all children in New York to 100% decreases in the
estimated numbers of occurrences associated with 63 concentrations that just meet the
0.064 4th daily maximum standard among all children in Los Angeles, based on adjusting
2002 and 2004 air quality data.5 The results for lung function occurrences among
asthmatic children were similar.
3.3.2 Exposure-response functional form sensitivity analysis
As noted above, the exposure-response functions used in the primary analyses are
based on the assumption that the relationship between exposure and response has a
logistic form with 90 percent probability and a linear (hockeystick) form with 10 percent
probability. If we had assumed different probabilities for the two alternative functional
forms, the resulting exposure-response curves, and the response probabilities associated
with exposure to any given Os concentration, would have been different. In this
5 These percentages are based on the rounded occurrence values. If they had been based on the unrounded
values, the percent decrease would have been large but not 100%.
Abt Associates Inc. 3-76 December 2006
-------
sensitivity analysis, we considered the impact of two alternative exposure-response
functions, based on an 80 percent logistic/20 percent linear split and a 50 percent logistic
750 percent linear split, in five locations - Atlanta, Chicago, Houston, Los Angeles, and
New York. Tables C-13 through C-16 in Appendix C show the impact of the alternative
exposure-response functions on the estimated number of children, ages 5-18, engaged in
moderate exertion experiencing at least one lung function response. Tables C-13 and C-
14 show the impact on the estimated number of all school age children experiencing at
least one lung function response, defined as a change in FEVi > 15%, for a recent year of
air quality as well as when 63 concentrations just meet each of three 4th daily maximum
standards - 0.084/4, 0.074/4 and 0.064/4, based on adjusting 2004 and 2002 data,
respectively. Tables C-15 and C-16 show the corresponding impacts on the estimated
number of asthmatic school age children experiencing at least one lung function
response, defined as a change in FEVi ^ 10%. Figures 3-13 and 3-14 show the impacts
of alternative estimates of exposure-response functions on estimated percent changes in
response among all school age children and asthmatic school age children, respectively,
when 63 concentrations are changed from those just meeting the current standard to a
recent year of air quality and to those just meeting each of the two alternative standards
given above.
The impacts of changing the functional form varied substantially, and there was
no discernable pattern. Not surprisingly, the impacts of changing from the 90%/10%
split to the 80%/20% split were generally small, especially for all school age children. In
most cases, the number of all school age children responding estimated by the 80%/20%
split was within 5 percent of the estimate obtained using the 90%/10% split. There were,
however, some more substantial changes. The largest differences for all school age
children occurred for Os concentrations just meeting the most stringent standard, 0.064/4
- a 14% decrease in the estimated number of all children responding (as defined above)
in Houston (from about 7,000 to about 6,000), based on adjusting 2004 air quality, and
14% decreases in the estimated number of children responding in Houston and Los
Angeles (from about 7,000 to about 6,000 in each location), based on adjusting 2002 air
quality. For asthmatic school age children, the differences in estimated number of
children responding tended to be larger. The largest differences were a 33% increase in
the estimated number of children responding in Atlanta (from about 3,000 to about 4,000)
for Os concentrations just meeting the 0.064/4 standard, based on adjusting 2004 air
quality, and a 20% increase in Atlanta (from about 5,000 to about 6,000) for 63
concentrations just meeting the 0.064/4 standard, based on adjusting 2002 air quality.
The impacts of changing from the 90%/10% split to the 50%/50% split were
generally (although not always) larger. The largest impacts were again seen for 63
concentrations just meeting the most stringent standard of 0.064/4 - an 86% decrease in
the estimated number of all children responding in New York (from about 14,000 to
about 2,000), based on adjusting 2004 air quality, and a 71% decrease in the estimated
number of all children responding in Los Angeles (from about 7,000 to about 2,000),
based on adjusting 2002 air quality. For asthmatic children, there were several cases of
increases from 50% to 67% for Os concentrations just meeting the 0.074/4 and 0.064/4
standards, based on adjusting both 2004 and 2002 air quality.
Abt Associates Inc. 3-77 December 2006
-------
Figure 3-13. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Exposure-Response Function on
Estimated Percent Reductions in Numbers of All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion
Experiencing at Least One Decrement in FEVi >15% when O3 Concentrations are Reduced from Those
Just Meeting the Current Standard to Those that Would Just Meet Each of Several Alternative Daily
Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for Five Location-Specific O3 Seasons
100%
50%
0%
-50%
-100%
-150%
-200%
-250%
-300%
-350%
Figure 3-13a. Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations
Atlanta
>—90% logistic-10% linear
-•- 80% logistic-20% linear
.• -50% logistic-50% linear
2004 air quality
0.084/4 0.074/4
Alternative 8-Hr Standards
0.064/4
Chicago
2004 air quality
0.084/4 0.074/4
Alternative 8-Hr Standards
0.064/4
Houston
Percent Change from Current Standard
-•wn% -
A
^
^"
//
//
/ — • — 90% logistic-10% linear
A' - ••- 80% logistic-20% linear
- - * • -50% logistic-50% linear
2004 air quality
0.084/4 0.074/4
Alternative 8-Hr Standards
0.064/4
Los Angeles*
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2004 air quality
0.084/4 0.074/4
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0.084/4 0.074/4
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0.064/4
* The percent reductions from the current standard (0.084/4) to 2004 air quality were omitted for Los Angeles
because they were so large in magnitude (-553%, -587%, and -1027% for the 90/10, 80/20 and 50/50 splits,
respectively).
Abt Associates Inc.
3-78
December 2006
-------
Figure 3-13b. Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations
Atlanta
Percent Change from Current Standard
-40% -
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..'""^~*
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0.084/4 0.074/4
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re
-------
Figure 3-14. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Exposure-Response Function on
Estimated Percent Reductions in Numbers of Asthmatic Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate
Exertion Experiencing at Least One Decrement in FEVi >10% when O3 Concentrations are Reduced
from Those Just Meeting the Current Standard to Those that Would Just Meet Each of Several
Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for Five Location-Specific O3 Seasons
Figure 3-14a. Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations
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0.084/4 0.074/4
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* The percent reductions from the current standard (0.084/4) to 2004 air quality, based on the 90/10, 80/20, and
50/50 split exposure-response functions for Los Angeles were -294%, -280%, and -201%, respectively.
Abt Associates Inc.
3-80
December 2006
-------
Figure 3-14b. Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations
Atlanta
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2002 air quality
0.084/4 0.074/4
Alternative 8-Hr Standards
0.064/4
* The percent reductions from the current standard (0.084/4) to 2002 air quality, based on the 90/10, 80/20, and
50/50 split exposure-response functions for Los Angeles were -287%, -274%, and -198%, respectively.
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4 ASSESSMENT OF RISK BASED ON EPIDEMIOLOGICAL STUDIES
As discussed in the O3 CD, a significant number of epidemiological studies
examining a variety of health effects associated with ambient Os concentrations in
various locations throughout the U.S., Canada, Europe, and other regions of the world
have been published since the last OsNAAQS review. As a result of the availability of
these epidemiological studies and air quality information, EPA staff decided to expand
the Os risk assessment to include an assessment of selected health risks attributable to
ambient Os concentrations over PRB concentrations and the reduced health risks
associated with just meeting the current Os standard and alternative Os standards in
selected urban locations in the U.S. The methods and results of this portion of the risk
assessment are discussed below.
4.1 Methods
4.1.1 General approach
As in the recently completed particulate matter (PM) risk assessment (see EPA,
2005c, Chapter 4, and Abt Associates 2005), the general approach used in this part of the
Os risk assessment relies upon C-R functions which have been estimated in
epidemiological studies. Since these studies estimate C-R functions using ambient air
quality data from fixed-site, population-oriented monitors, the appropriate application of
these functions in a risk assessment similarly requires the use of ambient air quality data
at fixed-site, ambient monitors. The general Os health risk model combines information
about Os air quality for specific urban areas with C-R functions derived from
epidemiological studies and baseline health incidence data for specific health endpoints
and population estimates to derive estimates of the incidence of specified health effects
attributable to ambient Os concentrations during the period examined. Although the Os
season varies somewhat from one location to another, in most locations it coincides
roughly with spring and summer. To allow comparisons across locations, and because O3
effects observed in epidemiological studies have been more clearly and consistently
shown for warm season analyses, all analyses for this portion of the risk assessment were
carried out for the same time period, April through September. The analyses are
conducted for "as is" air quality and for air quality simulated to reflect just meeting the
current Os ambient standard, as well as air quality simulated to reflect just meeting
alternative Os ambient standards. Because Os concentrations varied substantially over
the 3-year period from 2002 through 2004, separate analyses were carried out using air
quality data from 2002, in which Os concentrations were relatively higher in most
locations for this 3-year period, and air quality data from 2004, in which Os
concentrations were relatively lower in most locations for this 3-year period, to provide
generally upper- and lower-end cases within this 3-year period. Two of the 12 urban
areas, Houston and Los Angeles, had similar or higher O3 concentrations in 2004 than in
2002. In addition to the 2002 and 2004 analyses, a more limited set of analyses, focusing
only on mortality in a subset of five urban areas (Atlanta, Chicago, Houston, Los
Angeles, and New York), was carried out using air quality data from 2003. The major
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components of the portion of the health risk assessment based on data from
epidemiological studies are illustrated in Figure 4-1.
In the first part of the epidemiology-based portion of the risk assessment, we
estimated health effects incidence associated with "as is" Os levels. In the second part,
we estimated the reduced health effects incidence associated with those O3 concentrations
that would result if the current and alternative 63 standards were just met in the
assessment locations. In both parts, we considered only the incidence of health effects
associated with Os concentrations in excess of estimated PRB Os levels.
Both parts of the epidemiology-based portion of the risk assessment may be
viewed as assessing the change in incidence of the health effect associated with a change
in Os concentrations from some upper levels to specified (lower) levels. The important
operational difference between the two parts is in the upper O3 levels. In the first part,
the upper 63 levels are "as is" concentrations. In contrast, the upper 63 levels in the
second part are the estimated Os levels that would occur when the current 8-hour daily
maximum Os standard is just met in the assessment locations or when one of several
alternative 8-hour daily maximum O3 standards is just met in these locations. The second
part therefore requires that a method be developed to simulate just meeting the current or
alternative standards. This method is described in Chapter 4 of the Staff Paper and in
Rizzo (2005, 2006).
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Figure 4-1. Major Components of Ozone Health Risk Assessment Based on Epidemiology Studies
Air Quality
Ambient Monitoring for
Selected Urban Areas
Modeled Background
Concentrations
Air Quality Adjustment
Procedures
Current and Alternative
Proposed Standards
Concentration-Response
Human Epidemiological
Studies
Estimates of City-specific
Baseline Health Effects
Incidence Rates and
Population Data
Recent ("As Is")
Ambient O3 Levels
Changes in
Distribution of
O3 Air Quality
Concentration -
Response
Relationships
Health
Risk
Model
Risk Estimates:
• Recent Air
Quality
• Current
Standard
• Alternative
Standards
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To estimate the change in incidence of a given health effect resulting from a change in
ambient 63 concentrations from "as is" levels to PRB levels, or from 63 concentrations that just
meet the current or an alternative standard to PRB levels, in an assessment location, the
following analysis inputs are necessary:
• Air quality information including: (1) "as is" air quality data for 63 from ambient
monitors in the assessment location, (2) "as is" concentrations adjusted to reflect
patterns of air quality estimated to occur when the area just meets the specified standard,
and (3) estimates of PRB 63 concentrations appropriate to this location. (These air
quality inputs are discussed in more detail in Chapter 2 of this report and in Chapters 2
and 4 of the Staff Paper.
• Concentration-response function(s) which provide an estimate of the relationship
between the health endpoint of interest and Os concentrations (preferably derived in the
assessment location, although functions estimated in other locations can be used at the
cost of increased uncertainty - see Section 4.1.9.1.3).
• Baseline health effects incidence rate and population. The baseline incidence rate
provides an estimate of the incidence rate (number of cases of the health effect per 63
season, usually per 10,000 or 100,000 population) in the assessment location
corresponding to "as is" Os levels in that location. To derive the total baseline incidence
per O3 season, the baseline incidence rate must be multiplied by the corresponding
population number (e.g., if the baseline incidence rate is number of cases per 63 season
per 100,000 population, it must be multiplied by the number of 100,000s in the
population). (Section 4.1.8 summarizes considerations related to the baseline incidence
rate and population data inputs to the risk assessment).
These inputs are combined to estimate health effect incidence changes associated with
specified changes in Os levels. Although some epidemiological studies have estimated linear or
logistic C-R functions, by far the most common form is the exponential (or log-linear) form:
y = Beftc, (4-1)
where x is the ambient Os level, y is the incidence of the health endpoint of interest at Os level x,
P is the coefficient of ambient Os concentration (describing the extent of change in y with a unit
change in x), and B is the incidence at x=0, i.e., when there is no ambient O3. The relationship
between a specified ambient 63 level, x0, for example, and the incidence of a given health
endpoint associated with that level (denoted as yo) is then
(4-2)
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Because the log-linear form of C-R function (equation (4-1)) is by far the most common form,
we use this form to illustrate the "health impact function" used in this portion of the risk
assessment.6
If we let x0 denote the baseline (upper) O3 level, and xi denote the lower O3 level, and y0
and yi denote the corresponding incidences of the health effect, we can derive the following
relationship between the change in x, Ax= (x0- xi), and the corresponding change in y, Ay, from
equation (4-1)7:
ty = (y0-yl} = y0[l-e-^}. (4-3)
Alternatively, the difference in health effects incidence can be calculated indirectly using
relative risk. Relative risk (RR) is a measure commonly used by epidemiologists to characterize
the comparative health effects associated with a particular air quality comparison. The risk of
mortality at ambient O3 level x0 relative to the risk of mortality at ambient O3 level xi, for
example, may be characterized by the ratio of the two mortality rates: the mortality rate among
individuals when the ambient O3 level is x0 and the mortality rate among (otherwise identical)
individuals when the ambient O3 level is xi. This is the RR for mortality associated with the
difference between the two ambient O3 levels, x0 and xi. Given a C-R function of the form
shown in equation (4-1) and a particular difference in ambient O3 levels, Ax, the RR associated
with that difference in ambient O3, denoted as RR-Ax, is equal to epAx. The difference in health
effects incidence, Ay, corresponding to a given difference in ambient O3 levels, Ax, can then be
calculated based on this RR-Ax as
ky = (y0-yl} = y0V-(VRR^}- (4-4)
Equations (4-3) and (4-4) are simply alternative ways of expressing the relationship between a
given difference in ambient O3 levels, Ax > 0, and the corresponding difference in health effects
incidence, Ay. These health impact equations are the key equations that combine air quality
information, C-R function information, and baseline health effects incidence information to
estimate ambient O3 health risk.
4.1.2 Air quality considerations
Air quality considerations are discussed in detail in Chapter 2 of this report and Chapters
2 and 4 of the Staff Paper and in Rizzo (2005, 2006). Here we describe those air quality
considerations that are directly relevant to the estimation of health risks in the epidemiology-
based portion of the risk assessment.
6 The derivations of health impact functions from concentration-response functions for all three functional forms
found in the epidemiological literature - the log-linear, the linear and the logistic - are given in section B.2 of
Appendix B.
If Ax<0 -i.e., if Ax = (XI-XQ)- then the relationship between Ax and Ay can be shown to be
ky = (yt -y0) = y^e^ -I]. If Ax < 0, Ay will similarly be negative. However, the magnitude of Ay will be the
same whether Ax > 0 or Ax < 0 - i.e., the absolute value of Ay does not depend on which equation is used.
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In the first part of the epidemiology-based portion of the risk assessment, we estimated
the change in health effect incidence, Ay, associated with a change in O3 concentrations from
current ("as is") levels of O3 to PRB levels. In the second part, we estimated the change in
health effect incidence associated with a change in O3 concentrations from the levels simulated
to just meet a standard (i.e., the current 8-hour daily maximum standard as well as each of
several alternative 8-hour daily maximum standards) to PRB levels.
To estimate the change in incidence of a health effect associated with a change in O3
concentrations from "as is" levels to PRB levels in an assessment location, we need two time
series of 63 concentrations for that location: (1) hourly "as is" O3 concentrations, and (2) hourly
PRB Os concentrations. In order to be consistent with the approach generally used in the
epidemiological studies that estimated O3 C-R functions, the (spatial) average ambient O3
concentration on each hour for which measured data are available is deemed most appropriate for
the risk assessment. Consistent with the approach used in the recently completed PM risk
assessment (see EPA, 2005c, Chapter 4, and Abt Associates 2005), a composite monitor data set
was created for each assessment location. The concentration at the composite monitor in a given
hour on a given day is simply the average of the monitor-specific concentrations for that hour on
that day.
Several different exposure metrics, the 24-hour average, the daily 8-hour maximum, and
the daily 1-hour maximum, have been used in epidemiological O3 studies. We therefore
calculated daily changes at the composite monitor in the O3 exposure metric appropriate to a
given C-R function. For example, if a C-R function related daily mortality to daily 1-hour
maximum Os concentrations, we calculated the daily changes in 1-hour maximum Os
concentrations at the composite monitor. In the first part of the epidemiology-based risk
assessment, in which we estimated risks associated with the recent levels of Os ("as is" levels)
above PRB levels, this required the following steps (we use the 1-hr daily maximum as an
example in the discussion below):
• Using the monitor-specific input streams of hourly "as is" Os concentrations, calculate
a stream of hourly "as is" Os concentrations at the composite monitor. The "as is" Os
concentration at the composite monitor for a given hour on a given day is the average
of the monitor-specific "as is" Os concentrations for that hour on that day.
• Using the stream of "as is" hourly Os concentrations at the composite monitor, just
created, calculate the 1-hour maximum "as is" O3 concentration for each day at the
composite monitor.
• Using the monitor-specific input streams of hourly PRB Os concentrations, calculate a
stream of hourly PRB O3 concentrations at the composite monitor.
• Using the stream of PRB hourly Os concentrations at the composite monitor, just
created, calculate the 1-hour maximum PRB O3 concentration for each day at the
composite monitor.
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• For each day, calculate Ax = (the 1-hour maximum "as is" O3 concentration for that
day at the composite monitor) - (the 1-hour maximum PRB O3 concentration for that
day at the composite monitor).8
The calculations for the second part of the epidemiology-based risk assessment, in which we
estimated risks associated with estimated O3 levels that just meet the current and alternative 8-hr
standards above PRB levels were done analogously, using the monitor-specific series of adjusted
hourly concentrations rather than the monitor-specific series of "as is" hourly concentrations.
Similarly, calculations for C-R functions that used a different exposure metric (e.g., the 24-hour
average) were done analogously, using the exposure metric appropriate to the C-R function.
4.1.3 Selection of health endpoints
EPA staff has carefully reviewed the epidemiological evidence evaluated in Chapter 7
and in Chapter 7 Annex as well as in Appendix 8A of the O3 CD. Tables 8A-1 through 8A-5 in
Appendix 8 A of the CD summarize the available U.S. and Canadian studies reporting effects of
acute (short-term) O3 exposures for various health effect categories. Given the substantial
number of health endpoints and studies addressing O3 effects, we included in this quantitative O3
risk assessment only the better- understood (in terms of health consequences) health endpoint
categories for which the weight of the evidence supports the inference of a likely causal
relationship between O3 and the effect category. In addition, we included only those categories
for which there are studies that satisfy the study selection criteria discussed below.
Based on its review of the evidence evaluated in the O3 CD, EPA staff included in the
portion of the O3 risk assessment based on epidemiology studies the following broad categories
of health endpoints associated with short-term exposures:
• premature total, respiratory, and cardiorespiratory mortality;
• hospital admissions for respiratory illnesses; and
• asthmatic symptoms in moderate/severe asthmatic children.
4.1.4 Selection of urban areas
Several objectives were considered in selecting potential urban areas for which to
conduct the epidemiology-based O3 risk assessment. An urban area was considered for inclusion
only if it satisfied the following criteria:
• It has sufficient air quality data for the 3-year period (2002-2004).
• It is the same as or close to the location where at least one C-R function for one of
the recommended health endpoints (see above) has been estimated by a study that
satisfies the study selection criteria (see below).
Note that the maximum-concentration hour for a given day in the "as is" series is not necessarily the same hour as
the maximum-concentration hour for that day in the PRB series.
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• For the hospital admission categories, relatively recent location-specific baseline
incidence data, specific to International Classification of Disease (ICD) codes, or
an equivalent illness classification system, are available.9
Because baseline mortality incidence data are available at the county level, this is not a
constraint in the selection of urban areas for the O?, risk assessment. Data on hospital admissions
for recent years, however, specific to ICD codes, are available in some cities but not others. The
availability of this type of incidence data was therefore a consideration in the selection of urban
areas to include in the analysis.
In addition, we took into account the following considerations in selecting from among
those urban locations that satisfied the above selection criteria:
• Locations with more health endpoints were preferred to those with fewer.
• The overall set of urban locations should represent a range of geographic areas and
population demographics among those areas not meeting the current Os 8-hour
daily maximum standard within the U.S.
Based on the selection criteria and additional considerations listed above, we included the
following urban areas in our assessment of risk based on epidemiological studies:
• Atlanta
• Boston
• Chicago
• Cleveland
• Detroit
• Houston
• Los Angeles
• New York City
• Philadelphia
• Sacramento
• St. Louis
• Washington, D.C.
4.1.5 Selection of epidemiological studies
As discussed above, we included in the Os risk assessment only the better-understood
health effects for which the weight of the evidence supports a likely causal inference. Thus, in
cases where the majority of the available studies did not report a statistically significant
relationship, the effect endpoint was not included. Once it had been determined that a health
endpoint would be included in the analysis, however, inclusion of a study on that health endpoint
was not based on statistical significance. That is, consistent with the approach taken in the
9 The absence of hospital admissions baseline incidence data does not necessarily mean that we cannot use an urban
area in the risk assessment, only that we cannot use it for the hospital admissions endpoint.
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particulate matter (PM) risk assessment (see EPA, 2005c, Chapter 4, and Abt Associates, 2005),
no credible study on an included health endpoint was excluded from the analysis on the basis of
lack of statistical significance.
We applied the following selection criteria for any study that estimated one or more O?,
C-R functions for a selected health endpoint in an urban location to be used for the Os risk
assessment:
• It is a published, peer-reviewed study that has been evaluated in the Os CD and judged
adequate by EPA staff for purposes of inclusion in this risk assessment based on that
evaluation.
• It directly measured, rather than estimated, Os on a reasonable proportion of the days in
the study.
• It either did not rely on Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) using the S-Plus software
to estimate C-R functions or has appropriately re-estimated these functions using revised
methods.10
• For studies of mortality associated with short-term exposure to O3, the study reported
results for the 63 season in the location in which the study was conducted.11
4.1.6 A summary of selected health endpoints, urban areas and studies
Based on applying the criteria and considerations discussed above, the health endpoints,
urban locations, and epidemiology studies that were included in the 63 risk assessment are given
in Table 4-1.
Table 4-1. Locations and Health Endpoints Included in the O3 Risk Assessment Based on Epidemiological
Studies*
Urban Area
Atlanta
Boston
Premature Mortality
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. (2004) - 95 cities
Huang etal. (2004)**
Huang etal. (2004) -19
cities**
Bell et al. (2004) - 95 cities
Hospital Admissions for
Respiratory Illnesses
Asthmatic Symptoms in
Children
Gent et al. (2003)
10 The GAM S-Plus problem was discovered prior to the recent final PM risk assessment carried out as part of the
PM NAAQS review. It is discussed in the PM Criteria Document (EPA, 2004), PM Staff Paper (EPA, 2005c), and
PM Health Risk Assessment Technical Support Document (Abt Associates, 2005).
11 In most locations, the O3 season is generally the warm season; in Houston, Los Angeles, and Sacramento,
however, the O3 season however, the O3 season is all year.
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Urban Area
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, D.C.
Premature Mortality
Bell et al. (2004) - 95 cities
Huang et al. (2004)
Huang et al. (2004) - 19 cities
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz (2004) - 14 cities
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. (2004) - 95 cities
Huang et al. (2004)
Huang et al. (2004) - 19 cities
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. (2004) - 95 cities
Huang et al. (2004)
Huang et al. (2004) - 19 cities
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz (2004) - 14 cities
Ito (2003)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. (2004) - 95 cities
Huang et al. (2004)
Huang et al. (2004) - 19 cities
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz (2004) - 14 cities
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. (2004) - 95 cities
Huang et al. (2004)
Huang et al. (2004) - 19 cities
Bell et al. (2004) - 95 cities
Huang et al. (2004)
Huang et al. (2004) - 19 cities
Bell et al. (2004) - 95 cities
Huang et al. (2004)
Huang et al. (2004) - 19 cities
Moolgavkar et al. (1995)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. (2004) - 95 cities
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. (2004) - 95 cities
Bell et al. (2004) - 95 cities
Hospital Admissions for
Respiratory Illnesses
Schwartz etal. (1996)
Ito (2003)
Linn et al. (2000)
Thurston etal. (1992)
Asthmatic Symptoms in
Children
* Studies listed for a given assessment location reported a C-R function specifically for that location unless
otherwise specified. A study reporting a multi-city C-R function is listed for a given assessment location
only if that location is included among the cities used to estimate the multi-city C-R function.
**This study estimated C-R functions for cardiorespiratory mortality.
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4.1.7 Selection of concentration-response functions
Studies often report more than one estimated C-R function for the same location
and health endpoint. Sometimes models including different sets of co-pollutants are
estimated in a study; sometimes different lags are estimated. In some cases, two or more
different studies estimated a C-R function for Os and the same health endpoint in the
same location (this is the case, for example, with O3 and mortality associated with short-
term exposures). For some health endpoints, there are studies that estimated multi-city
Os C-R functions, while other studies estimated single-city functions.
All else being equal, a C-R function estimated in the assessment location is
preferable to a function estimated elsewhere, since it avoids uncertainties related to
potential differences due to geographic location. That is why the urban areas selected for
the epidemiological studies-based Os risk assessment are those locations in which C-R
functions have been estimated. There are several advantages, however, to using
estimates from multi-city studies versus studies carried out in single cities. Multi-city
studies are applicable to a variety of settings, since they estimate a central tendency
across multiple locations. When they are estimating a single C-R function based on
several cities, multi-city studies also tend to have more statistical power and provide
effect estimates with relatively greater precision than single city studies due to larger
sample sizes, reducing the uncertainty around the estimated coefficient. In addition,
because selection of cities is done a priori based on criteria such as population size,
multi-city studies are less subject to publication bias than single-city studies. Because
single-city and multi-city studies have different advantages, if a single-city C-R function
has been estimated in a risk assessment location and a multi-city study that includes that
location is also available for the same health endpoint, we used both functions for that
location in the risk assessment.
Some Os epidemiological studies estimated C-R functions in which Os was the
only pollutant entered into the health effects model (i.e., single pollutant models) as well
as other C-R functions in which O3 and one or more co-pollutants (e.g., PM, nitrogen
dioxide, sulfur dioxide, carbon monoxide) were entered into the health effects model (i.e.,
multi-pollutant models). To the extent that any of the co-pollutants present in the
ambient air may have contributed to the health effects attributed to Os in single pollutant
models, risks attributed to Os might be overestimated where C-R functions are based on
single pollutant models. However, if co-pollutants are highly correlated with Os, their
inclusion in an Os health effects model can lead to misleading conclusions in identifying
a specific causal pollutant. When collinearity exists, inclusion of multiple pollutants in
models often produces unstable and statistically insignificant effect estimates for both Os
and the co-pollutants. Given that single and multi-pollutant models each have both
potential advantages and disadvantages, with neither type clearly preferable over the
other in all cases, we report risk estimates based on both single- and multi-pollutant
models where both are available.
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Many daily time-series epidemiological studies estimated C-R functions in which
the O3-related incidence on a given day depends only on same-day O3 concentration or
previous-day 63 concentration (or some variant of those, such as a two-day average
concentration). Such models necessarily assume that the longer pattern of Os levels
preceding the Os concentration on a given day does not affect incidence of the health
effect on that day. To the extent that an O3-related health effect on a given day is
affected by 63 concentrations over a longer period of time, then these models would be
mis-specified, and this mis-specification would affect the predictions of daily incidence
based on the model.
A few recent studies (e.g., Bell et al., 2004; Huang et al., 2004) have estimated
distributed lag models, in which health effect incidence is a function of Os concentrations
on several days - that is, the incidence of the health endpoint on day t is a function of the
O3 concentration on day t, day (t-1), day (t-2), and so forth. Such models can be
reconfigured so that the sum of the coefficients of the different 63 lags in the model can
be used to predict the changes in incidence on several days. For example, corresponding
to a change in Os on day t in a distributed lag model with 0-day, 1-day, and 2-day lags
considered, the sum of the coefficients of the 0-day, 1-day, and 2-day lagged O3
concentrations can be used to predict the sum of incidence changes on days t, (t+1) and
(t+2). This is explained more fully in Appendix G.
The extent to which time-series studies using single-day O3 concentrations may
underestimate the relationship between short-term 63 exposure and mortality is unknown;
however, there is some evidence, based on analyses of PMi0 data, that mortality on a
given day may be influenced by prior PM exposures up to more than a month before the
date of death (Schwartz, 2000b). The extent to which short-term exposure studies
(including those that consider distributed lags) may not capture the possible impact of
long-term exposures to O?, is similarly not known. Currently, there is insufficient
information to adequately adjust for the potential impact of longer-term exposure on
mortality associated with O3 exposures, if any, and this uncertainty should be kept in
mind as one considers the results from the short-term exposure 63 risk assessment.
Epidemiological studies sometimes present several C-R functions, each
incorporating a different lag structure. The question of lags and the problems of correctly
specifying the lag structure in a model have been discussed extensively [see, for example,
the PM CD (EPA, 2004, section 8.4.4); the PM Staff Paper (EPA, 2005c, sections 3.5.5.2
and 4.2.6.3); the O3 CD (EPA, 2006a, section 7.1.3.3); and Schwartz, 2000)]. The O3 CD
notes that "analyzing a large number of lags and simply choosing the largest and most
significant results may bias the air pollution risk estimates away from the null." (EPA,
2006a, section 7.1.3.3). On the other hand, there is recent evidence (Schwartz, 2000)
that the relationship between PM and health effects may best be described by a
distributed lag (i.e., the incidence of the health effect on day n is influenced by PM
concentrations on day n, day n-1, day n-2 and so on). If this is true for 63 as well, then a
model with only a single lag may result in an underestimation of the multiday effect. For
mortality associated with short-term exposure to Os, Bell et al. (2004) and Huang et al.
(2004) present the results for distributed lag models that take into account exposure from
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the previous 6 days. When a study reported several single lag models for a health effect,
we based our initial selection of the appropriate lag structure for each health effect on the
overall assessment provided in the 63 CD (EPA, 2006a), based on all studies reporting C-
R functions for that health effect.
In summary:
• if a single-city C-R function was estimated in a risk assessment location and a
multi-city function which includes that location was also available for the same
health endpoint, we used both functions for that location in the risk assessment;
• risk estimates based on both single- and multi-pollutant models were used when
both were available;
• distributed lag models were used, when available; when a study reported several
single lag models for a health effect, we based our initial selection of the
appropriate lag structure for the health effect on the overall assessment in the Os
CD (EPA, 2006a), based on all studies reporting C-R functions for that health
effect.
The locations, health endpoints, studies, and C-R functions included in that portion of the
risk assessment based on epidemiological studies are summarized in Table 4-2.
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Table 4-2. Summary of Locations, Concentration-Response Functions, Months Included and Counties Included
Risk
Assessment
Location
Atlanta
Boston
Ozone Season in
Risk
Assessment
Location
March - October
April -
September
Study/C-R
Function
Bell et al. (2004) - 95
cities
Bell et al. (2004) -
Atlanta
Huang et al. (2004) -
19 cities
Huang et al. (2004) -
19 cities
Huang et al. (2004) -
19 cities
Huang et al. (2004) -
19 cities
Huang et al. (2004) -
19 cities
Huang et al. (2004) -
Atlanta
Bell et al. (2004) - 95
cities
Gent et al. (2003)
Gent et al. (2003)
Health Endpoint
non-accidental mortality
non-accidental mortality
cardiorespiratory
mortality
cardiorespiratory
mortality
cardiorespiratory
mortality
cardiorespiratory
mortality
cardiorespiratory
mortality
cardiorespiratory
mortality
non-accidental mortality
Chest tightness in
asthmatic children
Chest tightness in
asthmatic children
Other
Pollutants in
Model
none2
none
none
PM10
NO2
SO2
CO
none
none
none
none
Exposure
Metric
24-hr avg.
24-hr avg.
24-hr avg.
24-hr avg.
24-hr avg.
24-hr avg.
24-hr avg.
24-hr avg.
24-hr avg.
1-hr max.
8-hr max.
Months
Included for C-
R Functions1
April - October
April - October
June - September
June - September
June - September
June - September
June - September
June - September
April - October
April - September
April - September
Counties
Included for C-R
Functions
—
Fulton, De Kalb 3
—
—
—
—
—
Fulton, De Kalb
—
CTand
Springfield area
of MA4
CTand
Springfield area
of MA4
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December 2006
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Risk
Assessment
Location
Chicago
Ozone Season in
Risk
Assessment
Location
April -
September
Study/C-R
Function
Gent et al. (2003)
Gent et al. (2003)
Gent et al. (2003)
Gent et al. (2003)
Bell et al. (2004) -
95 cities
Huang et al. (2004) -
19 cities
Huang et al. (2004) -
19 cities
Huang et al. (2004) -
19 cities
Huang et al. (2004) -
19 cities
Huang et al. (2004) -
19 cities
Huang et al. (2004) -
Chicago
Health Endpoint
Chest tightness in
asthmatic children
Shortness of breath in
asthmatic children
Shortness of breath in
asthmatic children
Wheeze in asthmatic
children
non-accidental mortality
cardiorespiratory
mortality
cardiorespiratory
mortality
cardiorespiratory
mortality
cardiorespiratory
mortality
cardiorespiratory
mortality
cardiorespiratory
mortality
Other
Pollutants in
Model
PM25
none
none
PM25
none
none
PM10
NO2
S02
CO
none
Exposure
Metric
1-hr max.
1-hr max.
8-hr max.
1-hr max.
24-hr avg.
24-hr avg.
24-hr avg.
24-hr avg.
24-hr avg.
24-hr avg.
24-hr avg.
Months
Included for C-
R Functions1
April - September
April - September
April - September
April - September
April - October
June - September
June - September
June - September
June - September
June - September
June - September
Counties
Included for C-R
Functions
CTand
Springfield area
of MA4
CTand
Springfield area
of MA4
CTand
Springfield area
of MA4
—
—
—
—
—
—
Cook
Abt Associates Inc.
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December 2006
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Risk
Assessment
Location
Cleveland
Detroit
Ozone Season in
Risk
Assessment
Location
April - October
April - October
Study/C-R
Function
Schwartz (2004) -
14-city
Schwartz (2004) -
Chicago
Bell et al. (2004) - 95
cities
Bell et al. (2004) -
Cleveland
Huang et al. (2004) -
19 cities
Huang et al. (2004) -
19 cities
Huang et al. (2004) -
19 cities
Huang et al. (2004) -
19 cities
Huang et al. (2004) -
19 cities
Huang et al. (2004) -
Cleveland
Schwartz et al.
(1996)
Bell et al. (2004) -
95 cities
Bell et al. (2004) -
Detroit
Health Endpoint
non-accidental mortality
non-accidental mortality
non-accidental mortality
non-accidental mortality
cardiorespiratory
mortality
cardiorespiratory
mortality
cardiorespiratory
mortality
cardiorespiratory
mortality
cardiorespiratory
mortality
cardiorespiratory
mortality
hosp. adms. for resp.
illness
non-accidental mortality
non-accidental mortality
Other
Pollutants in
Model
none
none
none
none
none
PM10
N02
S02
CO
none
none
none
none
Exposure
Metric
1-hr max.
1-hrmax.
24-hr avg.
24-hr avg.
24-hr avg.
24-hr avg.
24-hr avg.
24-hr avg.
24-hr avg.
24-hr avg.
1-hrmax.
24-hr avg.
24-hr avg.
Months
Included for C-
R Functions1
May - September
May - September
April - October
April - October
June - September
June - September
June - September
June - September
June - September
June - September
"warm season"
April - October
April - October
Counties
Included for C-R
Functions
—
Cook5
—
Cuyahoga
—
—
—
—
—
Cuyahoga
Cuyahoga
—
Wayne
Abt Associates Inc.
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December 2006
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Risk
Assessment
Location
Ozone Season in
Risk
Assessment
Location
Study/C-R
Function
Huang et al. (2004) -
19 cities
Huang et al. (2004) -
19 cities
Huang et al. (2004) -
19 cities
Huang et al. (2004) -
19 cities
Huang et al. (2004) -
19 cities
Huang et al. (2004) -
Detroit
Schwartz (2004) -
14-city
Schwartz (2004) -
Detroit
Ito (2003) - GAM
stringent6
Ito (2003) - GAM
stringent
Ito (2003) - GAM
stringent
Ito (2003) - GAM
stringent
Ito (2003) - GLM7
Health Endpoint
cardiorespiratory
mortality
cardiorespiratory
mortality
cardiorespiratory
mortality
cardiorespiratory
mortality
cardiorespiratory
mortality
cardiorespiratory
mortality
non-accidental mortality
non-accidental mortality
non-accidental mortality
respiratory mortality
unscheduled hospital
adms. for pnuemonia
unscheduled hospital
adms. for COPD
unscheduled hospital
adms. for pnuemonia
Other
Pollutants in
Model
none
PM10
NO2
S02
CO
none
none
none
none
none
none
none
none
Exposure
Metric
24-hr avg.
24-hr avg.
24-hr avg.
24-hr avg.
24-hr avg.
24-hr avg.
1-hr max.
1-hrmax.
24-hr avg.
24-hr avg.
24-hr avg.
24-hr avg.
24-hr avg.
Months
Included for C-
R Functions1
June - September
June - September
June - September
June - September
June - September
June - September
May - September
May - September
April - October
April - October
April - October
April - October
April - October
Counties
Included for C-R
Functions
—
—
—
—
—
Wayne
—
Wayne 5
Wayne
Wayne
Wayne
Wayne
Wayne
Abt Associates Inc.
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December 2006
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Risk
Assessment
Location
Houston
Los Angeles
Ozone Season in
Risk
Assessment
Location
All year
All year
Study/C-R
Function
Ito (2003) - GLM
Bell et al. (2004) - 95
cities
Bell et al. (2004) -
Houston
Huang et al. (2004) -
19 cities
Huang et al. (2004) -
19 cities
Huang et al. (2004) -
19 cities
Huang et al. (2004) -
19 cities
Huang et al. (2004) -
19 cities
Huang et al. (2004) -
Houston
Schwartz (2004) -
14-city
Schwartz (2004) -
Houston
Bell et al. (2004) - 95
cities
Bell et al. (2004) -
Los Angeles
Health Endpoint
unscheduled hospital
adms. For COPD
non-accidental mortality
non-accidental mortality
cardiorespiratory
mortality
cardiorespiratory
mortality
cardiorespiratory
mortality
cardiorespiratory
mortality
cardiorespiratory
mortality
cardiorespiratory
mortality
non-accidental mortality
non-accidental mortality
non-accidental mortality
non-accidental mortality
Other
Pollutants in
Model
none
none
none
none
PM10
NO2
S02
CO
none
none
none
none
none
Exposure
Metric
24-hr avg.
24-hr avg.
24-hr avg.
24-hr avg.
24-hr avg.
24-hr avg.
24-hr avg.
24-hr avg.
24-hr avg.
1-hr max.
1-hr max.
24-hr avg.
24-hr avg.
Months
Included for C-
R Functions1
April - October
April - October
All year
June - September
June - September
June - September
June - September
June - September
June - September
May - September
May - September
April - October
All year
Counties
Included for C-R
Functions
Wayne
—
Harris
—
—
—
—
—
Harris
—
Harris5
—
Los Angeles
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December 2006
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Risk
Assessment
Location
New York
Ozone Season in
Risk
Assessment
Location
April -
September
Study/C-R
Function
Huang et al. (2004) -
19 cities
Huang et al. (2004) -
19 cities
Huang et al. (2004) -
19 cities
Huang et al. (2004) -
19 cities
Huang et al. (2004) -
19 cities
Huang et al. (2004) -
Los Angeles
Linn et al. (2000)
Bell et al. (2004) - 95
cities
Huang et al. (2004) -
19 cities
Huang et al. (2004) -
19 cities
Huang et al. (2004) -
19 cities
Huang et al. (2004) -
19 cities
Health Endpoint
cardiorespiratory
mortality
cardiorespiratory
mortality
cardiorespiratory
mortality
cardiorespiratory
mortality
cardiorespiratory
mortality
cardiorespiratory
mortality
unscheduled hosp. adms.
for pulmonary illness
non-accidental mortality
cardiorespiratory
mortality
cardiorespiratory
mortality
cardiorespiratory
mortality
cardiorespiratory
mortality
Other
Pollutants in
Model
none
PM10
NO2
S02
CO
none
none
none
none
PM10
NO2
S02
Exposure
Metric
24-hr avg.
24-hr avg.
24-hr avg.
24-hr avg.
24-hr avg.
24-hr avg.
24-hr avg.
24-hr avg.
24-hr avg.
24-hr avg.
24-hr avg.
24-hr avg.
Months
Included for C-
R Functions1
June - September
June - September
June - September
June - September
June - September
June - September
All year;
separately by
season
April - October
June - September
June - September
June - September
June - September
Counties
Included for C-R
Functions
—
—
—
—
—
Los Angeles
Los Angeles,
Riverside, San
Bernardino,
Orange8
—
—
—
—
—
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December 2006
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Risk
Assessment
Location
Philadelphia
Ozone Season in
Risk
Assessment
Location
April - October
Study/C-R
Function
Huang et al. (2004) -
19 cities
Huang et al. (2004) -
New York
Thurston et al.
(1992)
Thurston et al.
(1992)
Bell et al. (2004) - 95
cities
Huang et al. (2004) -
19 cities
Huang et al. (2004) -
19 cities
Huang et al. (2004) -
19 cities
Huang et al. (2004) -
19 cities
Huang et al. (2004) -
19 cities
Health Endpoint
cardiorespiratory
mortality
cardiorespiratory
mortality
unscheduled hosp. adms.
for respiratory illness
unscheduled hosp. adms.
for asthma
non-accidental mortality
cardiorespiratory
mortality
cardiorespiratory
mortality
cardiorespiratory
mortality
cardiorespiratory
mortality
cardiorespiratory
mortality
Other
Pollutants in
Model
CO
none
none
none
none
none
PM10
N02
S02
CO
Exposure
Metric
24-hr avg.
24-hr avg.
1-hrmax.
1-hr max.
24-hr avg.
24-hr avg.
24-hr avg.
24-hr avg.
24-hr avg.
24-hr avg.
Months
Included for C-
R Functions1
June - September
June - September
June - August
June - August
April - October
June - September
June - September
June - September
June - September
June - September
Counties
Included for C-R
Functions
—
Bronx, Kings,
New York,
Richmond,
Queens,
Westchester
Bronx, Kings,
New York,
Richmond,
Queens9
Bronx, Kings,
New York,
Richmond,
Queens
—
—
—
—
—
—
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December 2006
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Risk
Assessment
Location
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington,
D.C.
Ozone Season in
Risk
Assessment
Location
All year
April - October
April - October
Study/C-R
Function
Huang et al. (2004) -
Phila.
Moolgavkar et al.
(1995)
Moolgavkar et al.
(1995)
Bell et al. (2004) - 95
cities
Bell et al. (2004) -
Sacramento
Bell et al. (2004) - 95
cities
Bell et al. (2004) -
St. Louis
Bell et al. (2004) - 95
cities
Health Endpoint
cardiorespiratory
mortality
non-accidental mortality
non-accidental mortality
non-accidental mortality
non-accidental mortality
non-accidental mortality
non-accidental mortality
non-accidental mortality
Other
Pollutants in
Model
none
none
TSP, SO2
none
none
none
none
none
Exposure
Metric
24-hr avg.
24-hr avg.
24-hr avg.
24-hr avg.
24-hr avg.
24-hr avg.
24-hr avg.
24-hr avg.
Months
Included for C-
R Functions1
June - September
June - August
June - August
April - October
All year
April - October
April - October
Counties
Included for C-R
Functions
Philadelphia
Philadelphia
Philadelphia
—
Sacramento
—
St. Louis city
(FIPS29510)
—
The months listed here are the months for which the C-R function was estimated. However, all C-R functions were applied in the risk assessment to April -
Sept.
2 The authors report that the results were robust to adjustment for PM10, but do not report the multi-pollutant functions.
3 Counties used by Bell et al. and Huang et al. are provided at http://www.ihapss.jhsph.edu/data/NMMAPS/documentation/counties.htm and in the June 2000
NMMAPS report (Number 94, Part II) are given in Appendix A, Table A.I.
4 Specific counties not given.
5 Personal communication via email (6-12-05) from J. Schwartz.
6 Generalized Additive Model, using a stringent convergence criterion.
7 Generalized Linear Model.
8 Excluding mountain and desert regions of the first three counties.
9 The paper doesn't list the counties, but notes that, in the case of New York City, surrounding counties were not included; this implies that only the five counties
of which New York City is comprised are included in the analysis. This was confirmed in a personal communication from the author (G. Thurston).
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4.1.8 Baseline health effects incidence considerations
The most common epidemiologically-based health risk model expresses the
reduction in health risk (Ay) associated with a given reduction in O3 concentrations (Ax)
as a percentage of the baseline incidence (y). To accurately assess the impact of changes
in Os air quality on health risk in the selected urban areas, information on the baseline
incidence of health effects (i.e., the incidence under "as is" air quality conditions) in each
location is therefore needed.
Incidence rates express the occurrence of a disease or event (e.g., asthma episode,
hospital admission, premature death) in a specific period of time, usually per year. Rates
are expressed either as a value per population group (e.g., the number of cases in
Philadelphia County) or a value per number of people (e.g., number of cases per 10,000
population), and may be age and sex specific. Incidence rates vary among geographic
areas due to differences in population characteristics (e.g, age distribution) and factors
promoting illness (e.g., smoking, air pollution levels). The sizes of the populations in the
assessment locations that are relevant to the risk assessment (i.e., the populations for
which the Os C-R functions are estimated and to which the baseline incidences refer) are
given in Table 4-3.
We obtained estimates of location-specific baseline mortality rates for each of the
Os risk assessment locations for 2002 from CDC Wonder, an interface for public health
data dissemination from the Centers for Disease Control (CDC).12 Rates were calculated
for the specific sets of counties for which C-R functions were estimated. The mortality
rates are derived from U.S. death records and U.S. Census Bureau post-censal population
estimates, and are reported in Table 4-4. National rates are provided from CDC Wonder
for 2002 for comparison. The epidemiological studies used in the risk assessment
reported causes of mortality using the ninth revision of the International Classification of
Diseases (ICD-9) codes. However, the tenth revision has since come out, and baseline
mortality incidence rates for 2002 shown in Table 4-4 use ICD-10 codes. The groupings
of ICD-9 codes used in the epidemiological studies and the corresponding ICD-10 codes
used to calculate year 2002 baseline incidence rates are given in Table 4-5.
12 United States Department of Health and Human Services (US DHHS), Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention (CDC), National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), Compressed Mortality File (CMF)
compiled from CMF 1968-1988, Series 20, No. 2A 2000, CMF 1989-1998, Series 20, No. 2E 2003 and
CMF 1999-2002, Series 20, No. 2H 2004 on CDC WONDER On-line Database. See
http ://wonder. cdc. gov/.
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Table 4-3. Relevant Population Sizes for O3 Risk Assessment Locations
City
Atlanta
Boston
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
New York
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, B.C.
Counties
Fulton, DeKalb
Suffolk
Essex, Middlesex, Norfolk, Suffolk, Worcester
Cook
Cuyahoga
Wayne
Harris
Los Angeles
Los Angeles, Riverside, San Bernardino, Orange
Bronx, Kings, Queens, New York, Richmond
Bronx, Kings, Queens, New York, Richmond,
Westchester
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis City
Washington, D.C.
Population*
Total
1,482,000
690,000
—
5,376,000
1,394,000
2,061,000
3,400,000
9,518,000
—
8,006,000
8,930,000
1,517,000
1,223,000
348,000
572,000
Ages ^30
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
8,378,000
—
—
—
—
—
—
Ages £ 65
—
—
—
—
217,000
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
Children, Ages < 12, with
moderate/severe asthma**
—
25,000
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
Total population and age-specific population estimates taken from the 2000 U.S. Census. Populations are rounded to the nearest thousand. The urban areas
given in this table are those considered in the studies used in the O3 risk assessment, with the exception of the larger Boston area, which is the CSA for Boston
(since the study that estimated a C-R function for respiratory symptoms observed in moderate and severe asthmatic children (ages 0 -12) was conducted in
Springfield, MA and CT).
** Population derived as follows: The populations of children <5 and 5 -12 in the counties listed were multiplied by corresponding percents of children [in each
age group] in New England with "current asthma" ~ 5.1% and 10.7% for the two age groups, respectively (see "The Burden of Asthma in New England."
Asthma Regional Council. March 2006. Table S-2. www.asthmaregionalcouncil.org). These estimated numbers of asthmatic children were then multiplied by
the estimated percent of asthmatic children using maintenance medications (40%) (obtained via email 4-05-06 from Jeanne Moorman, CDC) and the results were
summed.
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Table 4-4. Baseline Mortality Rates (per 100,000 Population) for 2002 for O3 Risk Assessment Locations*
City
Boston
Philadelphia
New York
Washington, B.C.
Atlanta
St. Louis
Chicago
Houston
Los Angeles
Sacramento
Betroit
Cleveland
National
Counties
Suffolk
Philadelphia
Bronx, Kings, Queens, New
York, Richmond, Westchester
Washington, D.C.
Fulton, DeKalb
St. Louis City
Cook
Harris
Los Angeles
Sacramento
Wayne
Cuyahoga
—
Type of Mortality
(ICB-9 Codes)
Non-accidental
(<800)
736
1,057
704
942
623
1147
781
533
569
686
913
1,058
790
Cardiorespiratory
(390-448; 490-496; 487; 480-
486; 507)
—
242
199
—
131
—
189
123
155
—
234
268
196
Respiratory
(460-519)
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
76
—
80
* Data from United States Department of Health and Human Services (US DHHS), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Center for
Health Statistics (NCHS), Compressed Mortality File (CMF) compiled from CMF 1968-1988, Series 20, No. 2A 2000, CMF 1989-1998, Series 20, No. 2E 2003
and CMF 1999-2002, Series 20, No. 2H 2004 on CDC WONDER On-line Database. See http://wonder.cdc.gov/.
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Table 4-5. ICD-9 Codes used in Epidemiological Studies and Corresponding ICD-10 Codes
Causes of Death
Non-accidental
Cardiorespiratory
Respiratory
ICD-9 Codes
<800
390-448; 490-496; 487; 480-486;
507
460-519
ICD-10 Codes
AOO-R99
G45.0-G45.2, G45.4-G45.9, G54.0, G93.6,
G93.8, G93.8, G95.1, IOO-I13.9, 120.0-I22.9,
124. 1-164, 167.0-I78.9, M21.9, M30.0-M31.9,
ROO.l, R00.8, R01.2, J40-J47, J67, J10-J18,
J69
JOO-J01.9, J02.8-J02.9, J03.8-J64, J66.0-J94.9,
J98.0-J98.9, P28.8, R06.5, R09.1
Hospital admissions studies included in the Os risk assessment were conducted in
Los Angeles, Cleveland, Detroit, and New York City. Because Thurston et al. (1992)
estimated a linear C-R function for New York City, a baseline incidence rate is not
required to estimate risks. However, a baseline incidence rate is needed to calculate
hospital admissions as a percent of the total (baseline) hospital admissions. Baseline
rates of unscheduled hospital admissions for respiratory illnesses and for asthma in New
York City (the five boroughs) were calculated from the year 2001 data provided to us by
the New York Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative. Baseline rates for Detroit
were calculated from hospitalization data for Wayne County for the year 2000, obtained
from the Michigan Health and Hospital Association in April 2002. Baseline rates of
unscheduled hospital admissions for Los Angeles (Los Angeles, Riverside, San
Bernardino, and Orange Counties) were calculated from patient discharge data for 1999,
obtained from California's Office of Statewide Health Planning and Development, which
also provided records of hospital admissions for the study by Linn et al. (2000). The
records provided for the Linn study included both ICD codes and All-Patient-Refmed
Diagnosis-Related Group (APR-DRG). Because Linn et al. (2000) used diagnosis
categories based on the APR-DRG, we made sure that the records we obtained from
California's Office of Statewide Health Planning and Development also contained the
APR-DRG so that baseline incidence rates could be calculated for hospital admissions
categories that matched those used in the Linn study. In addition, we used a flag in the
dataset indicating whether an admission was scheduled or unscheduled to ensure that the
rates we calculated were for unscheduled admissions only.
Schwartz et al. (1996) report several percentiles as well as the mean of the
distribution of daily hospital admissions for respiratory illness (ICD-9 codes 460-519)
among people ages 65 and older in Cuyahoga County, which contains Cleveland, Ohio,
during the years 1988-90. The mean daily hospital admissions in this age group in
Cuyahoga County was 22 in 1988-90. To estimate a daily rate, we obtained the
population age 65 and older in Cuyahoga County in 199013 and divided the mean daily
1990 U.S. Census, at: http://factfmder.census.gov/servlet/BasicFactsServlet
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hospital admissions for respiratory illness by that population. Baseline incidence rates
for hospital admissions used in the risk assessment are shown in Table 4-6.
Table 4-6. Baseline Rates for Hospital Admissions Used in the O3 Risk Assessment
Relevant Population:
Rate per 100,000 Relevant Population
Los
Angeles1
Ages 30+
New York2
All Ages
Detroit3
Ages 65+
Cleveland4
Ages 65+
Admissions for:
Pulmonary illness (DRG Codes 75 - 101) -
spring
Pulmonary illness (DRG Codes 75 - 101) -
summer
Respiratory illness (ICD codes 466, 480-486,
490,491,492,493)
Asthma (ICD code 493)
Pneumonia (ICD codes 480-486)
COPD (ICD codes 490-496)
Respiratory illness ((ICD codes 460-519)
208
174
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
800
327
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
2,068
1,593
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
3,632
Rates of unscheduled hospital admissions were calculated from patient discharge data for 1999, obtained
from California's Office of Statewide Health Planning and Development, which also provided records of
hospital admissions for the study by Linn et al. (2000).
2 Rates of unscheduled hospital admissions were calculated from patient discharge data for 2001, obtained
from the New York Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative.
3 Rates were calculated from hospitalization data for Wayne County for the year 2000, obtained from the
Michigan Health and Hospital Association in April 2002.
4 Based on mean daily hospital admissions for ages 65+ for ICD-9 codes 460-519 - Table 1 in Schwartz et
al. (1996).
Baseline rates of symptoms among moderate/severe asthmatic children in the
Boston area were estimated by using the median rates of the respiratory symptoms
reported in Table 3 of Gent et al. (2003). Each symptom rate, the percentage of days on
which the symptom occurred, was calculated for each subject by dividing the number of
days of the symptom by the number of days of participation in the study and then
multiplying by 100. Median symptom rates among maintenance medication users for
wheeze, chest tightness, and shortness of breath were 2.8%, 1.2%, and 1.5% of days,
respectively.
4.1.9 Addressing uncertainty and variability
Any estimation of "as is" risk and reduced risks associated with just meeting the
current Os standards should address both the variability and uncertainty that generally
underlie such an analysis. In Section 3.1.5 we discussed the difference between
uncertainty and variability, and gave examples of each. The discussion in that section is
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applicable to the uncertainty and variability to be addressed in the portion of the risk
assessment based on epidemiological studies as well.
As with the controlled human exposure studies portion of the risk assessment, the
epidemiology-based portion incorporates some of the variability in key inputs to the
analysis by using location-specific inputs (e.g., location-specific population data and
baseline incidence rates). Although spatial variability in these key inputs across all U.S.
locations has not been fully characterized, variability across the selected locations is
imbedded in the analysis by using, to the extent possible, inputs specific to each urban
area. As in the controlled human exposure studies portion of the risk assessment,
temporal variability is more difficult to address, because the risk assessment focuses on
some unspecified time in the future. To minimize the degree to which values of inputs to
the analysis may be different from the values of those inputs at that unspecified time, we
have used recent input data - for example, year 2004 and year 2002 air quality data for all
of the urban locations, and recent population data (from the 2000 Census). However,
future changes in inputs have not been predicted (e.g., future population levels). To
address the impact of variability in Os concentrations from one year to another, we
carried out the risk assessment for two years separately - 2002 and 2004 - which
represent generally upper- and lower-ends of overall 63 concentrations during the three-
year period under consideration.
A number of important sources of uncertainty in the epidemiology-based portion
of the risk assessment were addressed where possible. The following are among the
major sources of uncertainty:
• Uncertainties related to estimating the C-R functions, including
o uncertainty about the extent to which the association between Os and the
health endpoint actually reflects a causal relationship.
o uncertainty surrounding estimates of O?, coefficients in C-R functions used
in the analyses.
o uncertainty about the specification of the model (including the shape of
the C-R relationship), particularly whether or not there are thresholds
below which no response occurs.
o uncertainty related to the transferability of 63 C-R functions from study
locations and time periods to the locations and time periods selected for
the risk assessment. A C-R function in a study location may not provide
an accurate representation of the C-R relationship in the analysis
location(s) and time periods because of
• the possible role of associated co-pollutants, which vary from
location to location and over time, in influencing O3 risk,
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• variations in the relationship of total ambient exposure (both
outdoor and ambient contributions to indoor exposure) to ambient
monitoring in different locations (e.g, due to differences in air
conditioning use in different regions of the U.S. or changes in
usage over time),
• differences in population characteristics (e.g., the proportions of
members of sensitive subpopulations) and population behavior
patterns across locations or over time in the same location.
• Uncertainties related to the air quality data, including
o the adjustment procedure that was used to simulate just meeting the
current and alternative O3 standards.
o uncertainties about estimated background concentrations for each location.
• Uncertainties associated with use of baseline health effects incidence information
that is not specific to the analysis locations.
The specific sources of uncertainty in the O3 risk assessment are described in detail below
and are summarized in Table 4-7.
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Table 4-7. Key Uncertainties in the Risk Assessment
Uncertainty
Causality
Empirically estimated C-R relations
Functional form of C-R relation
Lag structure of C-R relation
Transferability of C-R relations
Extrapolation of C-R relations
beyond the range of observed 63
data
Comments
Statistical association does not prove causation. However, the risk assessment considers only
health endpoints for which the overall weight of the evidence supports the assumption that Os is
likely causally related based on the totality of the health effects evidence.
Because C-R functions are empirically estimated, there is uncertainty surrounding these
estimates. Omitted confounding variables could cause bias in the estimated 63 coefficients.
However, including potential confounding variables that are highly correlated with one another
can lead to unstable estimators. Both single- and multi-pollutant models were used where
available. In addition, for those studies which provided both single-location and multiple-
location estimates, single-location estimates were adjusted, using a Bayesian adjustment
procedure, to make more efficient use of the data in the study. This is explained more fully
below.
Statistical significance of coefficients in an estimated C-R function does not necessarily mean
that the mathematical form of the function is the best model of the true C-R relation.
There is some evidence that a distributed lag might be the most appropriate model for Os effects
associated with short-term exposures. Most studies, however, included only a single lag term in
their models. (Two important exceptions are Bell et al. (2004) and Huang et al. (2004).) Omitted
lags could cause an underestimation in the predicted incidence associated with a given reduction
in Os concentrations.
C-R functions may not provide an adequate representation of the C-R relationship in times and
places other than those in which they were estimated. For example, populations in the analysis
locations may have more or fewer members of sensitive subgroups than locations in which
functions were derived, which would introduce additional uncertainty related to the use of a
given C-R function in the analysis location. However, in the majority of cases, the risk
assessment relies on C-R functions estimated from studies conducted in the same location.
A C-R relationship estimated by an epidemiological study may not be valid at concentrations
outside the range of concentrations observed during the study.
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Uncertainty
Adequacy of ambient 63 monitors
as surrogate for population
exposure
Adjustment of air quality
distributions to simulate just
meeting current Os standards.
Background 63 concentrations
Baseline health effects data
Comments
Possible differences in how the spatial variation in ambient 63 levels across each urban area are
characterized in the original epidemiological studies compared to the more recent ambient Os
data used to characterize current air quality would contribute to uncertainty in the health risk
estimates.
The pattern and extent of daily reductions in 63 concentrations that would result if the current 63
standard or alternative Os standards were just met is not known. There remains uncertainty about
the shape of the air quality distribution of hourly levels upon just meeting an Os standard that will
depend on future air quality control strategies.
The calculation of 63 risk associated with "as is" air quality and of reduced risks that would
result if the current or an alternative standard were just met requires as inputs the background Os
concentrations in each of the assessment locations. Background concentrations for each location
were estimated based on the GEOS-CHEM model simulations for all hours of an "average day"
in a given month, for each of the months from April through September. There is uncertainty
about these estimated background levels.
Data on baseline incidence is uncertain for a variety of reasons. For example, location- and age-
group-specific baseline rates may not be available in all cases. Baseline incidence may change
over time for reasons unrelated to 63.
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We handled uncertainties in the risk assessment as follows:
• Limitations and assumptions in estimating risks and reduced risks are clearly
stated and explained.
• The uncertainty resulting from the statistical uncertainty associated with the
estimate of the O3 coefficient in a C-R function was characterized either by
confidence intervals or by Bayesian credible intervals around the corresponding
point estimate of risk. Confidence intervals and credible intervals express the
range within which the true risk is likely to fall if the uncertainty surrounding the
O3 coefficient estimate were the only uncertainty in the analysis. They do not, for
example, reflect the uncertainty concerning whether the O3 coefficients in the
study location and the assessment location are the same.
• Where possible, we made use of multi-city information to adjust location-specific
estimates to make more efficient use of the data (see Section 4.1.9.1.2 below).
Although the O3 risk assessment considered mortality as well as morbidity health
effects, not all health effects that may result from O3 exposure were included. Only those
for which there was sufficient epidemiological evidence from studies that met the study
selection criteria (see Section 4.1.5) were included in the risk assessment. Other health
effects reported to be associated with exposure to O3 (e.g., increased doctor's visits,
increased emergency department visits) are considered qualitatively in the Staff Paper.
Thus, it is important to recognize that the O3 risk assessment represents only a portion of
the health risks associated with O3 exposures.
In addition, we limited application of a C-R function to only that portion of the
population on which estimation of the function was based. For example, unscheduled
hospital admissions for pneumonia were examined in Ito (2003) for people ages 65 and
older. It is likely that the effect of O3 on hospital admissions for these illnesses and
conditions does not begin at age 65; however, data are not available to estimate the
number of cases avoided for younger age groups for the urban area examined by Ito
(2003). Therefore, some number of potentially avoided health effects was not captured in
this analysis.
4.1.9.1 Concentration-response functions
The C-R function is a key element of the O3 risk assessment. The quality of the
risk assessment depends, in part, on (1) whether the C-R functions used in the risk
assessment are good estimates of the relationship between the population health response
and ambient O3 concentration in the study locations, (2) how applicable these functions
are to the analysis periods and locations, and (3) the extent to which these relationships
apply beyond the range of the O3 concentrations from which they were estimated. These
issues are discussed in the subsections below.
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4.1.9.1.1 Uncertainty associated with the appropriate model form
The relationship between a health endpoint and 63 can be characterized in terms
of the form of the function describing the relationship - e.g., linear, log-linear, or logistic
- and the value of the Os coefficient in that function. Although most epidemiological
studies estimated O3 coefficients in log-linear models, there is still substantial uncertainty
about the correct functional form of the relationship between 63 and various health
endpoints - especially at the low end of the range of Os values, where data are generally
too sparse to discern possible thresholds. While there are likely biological thresholds in
individuals for specific health responses, the available epidemiological studies generally
have not supported or refuted the existence of thresholds at the population level for 63
exposures within the range of air quality observed in the studies. A recent study, Bell et
al. (2006), specifically addressed the question of thresholds, however, and found no
evidence to support the threshold hypothesis. Applying several different statistical
approaches specifically designed to address the threshold issue to data on air pollution,
weather and mortality for 98 U.S. cities from 1987 to 2000, they found that "even low
levels of tropospheric ozone are associated with increased risk of premature mortality"
(Bell et al., 2006).
4.1.9.1.2 Uncertainty associated with the estimated concentration-response
functions in the study locations
The uncertainty associated with an estimate of the O3 coefficient in a C-R
function reported by a study depends on the sample size and the study design. The 63
CD has evaluated the substantial body of Os epidemiological studies. In general, critical
considerations in evaluating the design of an epidemiological study include the adequacy
of the measurement of ambient O3, the adequacy of the health effects incidence data, and
the consideration of potentially important health determinants and potential confounders
and effect modifiers such as:
• other pollutants;
• exposure to other health risks, such as smoking and occupational exposure; and
• demographic characteristics, including age, sex, socioeconomic status, and access to
medical care.
The possible confounding effects of copollutants, including other criteria air
pollutants, has often been noted as a problem in air pollutant risk assessments,
particularly when these other pollutants are highly correlated with the pollutant of
interest. Os is generally not highly correlated with other criteria air pollutants, although it
may be more highly correlated with fine particles, especially during the summer months.
A recent meta-analysis of time-series studies of 63 and mortality, however, found that the
effect of Os on mortality was insensitive to whether particulate matter was included in the
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model (Bell et al., 2005). The issue of possible confounding by copollutants is discussed
in more detail in Section 3.4.2.2 of the Staff Paper (EPA, 2007a).
The selection of studies included in the O3 risk assessment was guided by the
evaluations in the 63 CD. One of the criteria for selecting studies addresses the adequacy
of the measurement of ambient 03. This criterion was that O?, was directly measured,
rather than estimated, on a reasonable proportion of the days in the study. This criterion
was designed to minimize error in the estimated O3 coefficients in the C-R functions used
in the risk assessment.
Ambient concentrations at central monitors, however, may not provide a good
representation of personal exposures. The O3 CD (EPA, 2006a) identifies the following
three components to exposure measurement error: (1) the use of average population
rather than individual exposure data; (2) the difference between average personal ambient
exposure and ambient concentrations at central monitoring sites; and (3) the difference
between true and measured ambient concentrations (O3 CD, p. 7-7). The O3 CD notes
that "these components are expected to have different effects, with the first and third
likely not causing bias in a particular direction ("nondifferential error") but increasing the
standard error, while the second component may result in downward bias, or attenuation
of the risk estimate" (O3 CD, pp. 7-7 to 7-8). While a concentration-response function
may understate the effect of personal exposures to 63 on the incidence of a health effect,
however, it will give an unbiased estimate of the effect of ambient concentrations on the
incidence of the health effect, if the ambient concentrations at monitoring stations
provide an unbiased estimate of the ambient concentrations to which the population is
exposed. In this case, if 63 is actually the causal agent, the understatement of the impact
of personal exposures isn't an issue (since EPA regulates ambient concentrations rather
than personal exposures). If 63 is not the causal agent, however, then there is a problem
of confounding copollutants or other factors, so that reducing ambient 63 concentrations
might not result in the expected reductions in the health effect. A more comprehensive
discussion of exposure measurement is given in Section 3.4.2.1 of EPA's Staff Paper
(EPA, 2007a).
To the extent that a study did not address all relevant factors (i.e., all factors that
affect the health endpoint), there is uncertainty associated with the C-R function
estimated in that study, beyond that reflected in the confidence or credible interval. It
may result in either over- or underestimates of risk associated with ambient 63
concentrations in the location in which the study was carried out. Techniques for
addressing the problem of confounding factors and other study design issues have
improved over the years, however, and the epidemiological studies currently available for
use in the 63 risk assessment provide a higher level of confidence in study quality than
ever before.
When a study is conducted in a single location, the problem of possible
confounding co-pollutants may be particularly difficult, if co-pollutants are highly
correlated in the study location. Single-pollutant models, which omit co-pollutants, may
produce overestimates of the Os effect, if some of the effects of other pollutants (omitted
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from the model) are falsely attributed to Os. Statistical estimates of an Os effect based on
a multi-pollutant model can be more uncertain, and even statistically insignificant, if the
co-pollutants included in the model are highly correlated with 63. As a result of these
considerations, we report risk estimates based on both single-pollutant and multi-
pollutant models, when both are reported by a study.
As noted above, the uncertainty resulting from the statistical uncertainty
associated with the estimate of the Os coefficient in a C-R function was characterized
either by confidence intervals (if the coefficient was estimated using a classical statistical
approach) or by Bayesian credible intervals (if the coefficient was estimated using a
Bayesian approach) around the corresponding point estimate of risk.
Two studies, Bell et al. (2004) and Huang et al. (2004), reported both multi-
location and single-location C-R functions in a variety of locations, using a Bayesian
two-stage hierarchical model. In these cases, the single-location estimates can be
adjusted to make more efficient use of the data from all locations. The resulting
"shrinkage" estimates are so called because they "shrink" the location-specific estimates
towards the overall mean estimate (the mean of the posterior distribution of the multi-
location C-R function coefficient). The greater the uncertainty about the estimate of the
location-specific coefficient relative to the estimate of between-study heterogeneity, the
more the location-specific estimate is "pulled in" towards the overall mean estimate. Bell
et al. (2004) calculated these shrinkage estimates, which were presented in Figure 2 of
that paper. These location-specific shrinkage estimates, and their adjusted standard errors
were provided to us by the study authors and were used in the risk assessment.
The location-specific estimates reported in Table 1 of Huang et al. (2004) are not
"shrinkage" estimates. However, the study authors provided us with the posterior
distribution for the heterogeneity parameter, T, for their distributed lag model, shown in
Figure 4(b) of their paper. Given this posterior distribution, and the original location-
specific estimates presented in Table 1 of their paper, we calculated location-specific
"shrinkage" estimates using a Bayesian method described in DuMouchel (1994) (see
Section B-3 in Appendix B for a complete explanation of the calculation of these
"shrinkage" estimates). As with the shrinkage estimates presented in Bell et al. (2004),
the resulting Bayesian shrinkage estimates use the data from all of the locations
considered in the study more efficiently than do the original location-specific estimates.
The calculation of these shrinkage estimates is thus one way to address the relatively
large uncertainty surrounding estimates of coefficients in location-specific C-R functions.
Several recent meta-analyses (Bell et al. 2005; Levy et al., 2005; and Ito et al.,
2005) have addressed the impact of various factors on estimates of mortality associated
with short-term exposures to O3. We reviewed these meta-analyses for additional
information that might be used to assist in characterizing the uncertainties associated with
risk estimates for this health outcome. Overall, the meta-analyses helped delineate the
sources of heterogeneity in the estimated relationships between mortality and short-term
exposure to O3, the robustness of these estimated relationships to inclusion of PM in the
model, the relative importance of 0-day lag among the different lag structures considered,
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and the indication of publication bias in single-city studies and meta-analyses of such
studies. Because of this last issue in particular, while the meta-analyses provided insight
into relevant issues, we considered multi-city studies preferable for use in the risk
assessment.
4.1.9.1.3 Applicability of concentration-response functions in different locations
As described in Section 4.1.4, risk assessment locations were selected on the basis
of where C-R functions have been estimated, to avoid the uncertainties associated with
applying a C-R function estimated in one location to another location. However, multi-
city C-R functions were also applied to any risk assessment location contained in the set
of locations used to estimate the C-R function. The accuracy of the results based on a
multi-location C-R function rests in part on how well this multi-location C-R function
represents the relationship between ambient Os and the given population health response
in the individual cities involved in the study.
The relationship between ambient Os concentration and the incidence of a given
health endpoint in the population (the population health response) depends on (1) the
relationship between ambient O3 concentration and personal exposure to ambient-
generated 63 and (2) the relationship between personal exposure to ambient-generated 63
and the population health response. Both of these are likely to vary to some degree from
one location to another.
The relationship between ambient 63 concentration and personal exposure to
ambient-generated Os will depend on patterns of behavior, such as the amount of time
spent outdoors, as well as on factors affecting the extent to which ambient-generated Os
infiltrates into indoor environments. The relationship between personal exposure to
ambient-generated 63 and the population health response will depend on the population
exposed.
Exposed populations differ from one location to another in characteristics that are
likely to affect their susceptibility to 63 air pollution. For instance, people with pre-
existing conditions such as chronic bronchitis are probably more susceptible to the
adverse effects of exposure to Os, and populations vary from one location to another in
the prevalence of specific diseases. Also, some age groups may be more susceptible than
others, and population age distributions also vary from one location to another. Closely
matching populations observed in studies to the populations of the assessment locations is
not possible for many characteristics (for example, smoking status, workplace exposure,
socioeconomic status, and the prevalence of highly susceptible subgroups).
Other pollutants may also play a role in either causing or modifying health effects,
either independently or in combination with Os (see Section 8.1.3.2 in the 2004 PM CD
and Section 7.1.3.5 in the O3 CD). Inter-locational differences in these pollutants could
also induce differences in the 63 C-R relationship between one location and another.
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In summary, the C-R relationship is most likely not the same everywhere. Even if
the relationship between personal exposure to ambient-generated O3 and population
health response were the same everywhere, the relationship between ambient
concentrations and personal exposure to ambient-generated O3 differs among locations.
Similarly, even if the relationship between ambient concentrations and personal exposure
to ambient-generated O3 were the same everywhere, the relationship between personal
exposure to ambient-generated O3 and population health response may differ among
locations. In either case, the C-R relationship would differ.
4.1.9.1.4 Extrapolation beyond observed air quality levels
Although a C-R function describes the relationship between ambient O3 and a
given health endpoint for all possible O3 levels (potentially down to zero), the estimation
of a C-R function is based on real ambient O3 values that are limited to the range of O3
concentrations in the location in which the study was conducted. Thus, uncertainty in the
shape of the estimated C-R function increases considerably outside the range of O3
concentrations observed in the study.
Because we are interested in the effects of anthropogenic O3, in this initial
analysis, the O3 risk assessment assumes that the estimated C-R functions adequately
represent the true C-R relationship down to PRB O3 levels in the assessment locations.
Because those studies that reported the minimum O3 levels observed all reported levels
below PRB O3 levels, the problem of extrapolation to levels below those air quality levels
observed in a study does not arise.
The C-R relationship may also be less certain towards the upper end of the
concentration range being considered in a risk assessment, particularly if the O3
concentrations in the assessment location exceed the O3 concentrations observed in the
study location. Even though it may be reasonable to model the C-R relationship as log-
linear over the ranges of O3 concentrations typically observed in epidemiological studies,
it may not be log-linear over the entire range of O3 levels at the locations considered in
the O3 risk assessment.
4.1.9.2 The air quality data
4.1.9.2.1 Adequacy of O3 air quality data
The method of averaging data from monitors across a metropolitan area in the risk
assessment is similar to the methods used to characterize ambient air quality in most of
the epidemiology studies. Ideally, the measurement of average hourly ambient O3
concentrations in the study location is unbiased. In this case, unbiased risk predictions in
the assessment location depend, in part, on an unbiased measurement of average hourly
ambient O3 concentrations in the assessment location as well. If, however, the
measurement of average hourly ambient O3 concentrations in the study location is biased,
unbiased risk predictions in the assessment location are still possible if the measurement
of average hourly ambient O3 concentrations in the assessment location incorporates the
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same bias as exists in the study location measurements. Because this is not known,
however, the errors in the O3 measurements in the assessment locations are a source of
uncertainty in the risk assessment.
O3 air quality data were not available for all hours of the ozone season in the year
chosen for the risk assessment in all of the assessment locations. Missing Os
concentrations were filled in, as described in section 3.2 of the Exposure Assessment
TSD.
The results of the risk assessment are generalizable to other years only to the
extent that ambient Os levels in the available data are similar to ambient Os levels in
those locations in the other years. A substantial difference between Os levels in the year
used in the risk assessment and Os levels in the other years could imply a substantial
difference in predicted incidences of health effects. For the initial phase of the
assessment, we selected two years, 2002 and 2004, in the 2002 - 2004 three-year period.
Os levels in 2004 in most of the 12 urban areas were somewhat lower than in other recent
years, due to both meteorological conditions that were not conducive to Os formation and
lower emissions of NOX due to newly implemented regional controls on major power
plants in the eastern U.S. Os levels in 2002 were generally higher than in either 2003 or
2004 except in Detroit, Houston and Los Angeles. For 5 urban areas (Atlanta, Chicago,
Houston, Los Angeles, New York) additional risk estimates were developed based on
2003 air quality data.
4.1.9.2.2 Estimation of PRB O3 concentrations
The PRB Os concentrations that were used in the risk assessment are monthly
averaged GEOS-CHEM model predictions, and the measured ambient Os concentrations
are frequently lower than these PRB values. After assessing the uncertainty of the
GEOS-Chem model predictions, the Os CD estimates that "the PRB ozone values
reported by Fiore et al. (2003a) for afternoon surface air over the United States are likely
10 ppbv too high in the southeast in summer, and accurate within 5 ppbv in other regions
and seasons" (O3 CD, page 3-53). This raises the question of how best to deal with this
in our estimation of risk above PRB. We considered two different approaches, described
in Appendix F, calculating the bias expected in each case. As described in Appendix F,
the relative magnitudes of the expected biases from the two approaches depends on
whether we have overestimated or underestimated the monthly average PRB. The
frequency with which the measured ambient Os concentrations are lower than our
estimated PRB values suggests that these monthly PRB averages were overestimated.
Fiore et al. (2002a) noted that the GEOS-CHEM model tends to overpredict O3
concentrations in highly populated coastal areas, lending additional support for this
hypothesis in Houston, where the frequency of estimated PRB concentrations above
monitored "as is" concentrations was the greatest. On the assumption that monthly PRB
averages were overestimated, the lowest-bias method to estimating risk above PRB is to
set negative AO3 (= "as is" O3 concentration - PRB O3 concentration) to zero. We believe
this approach minimizes bias.
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4.1.9.2.3 Simulation of reductions in Os concentrations to just meet the current or
an alternative standard
The pattern of hourly Os concentrations that would result if the current Os
standard or an alternative standard were just met in any of the assessment locations is, of
course, not known. This therefore adds uncertainty to estimates of reduced risk when Os
concentrations just meet a standard.
Although the initial phase of health risk assessment uses air quality data from two
years, 2002 and 2004, it simulates just attaining a standard in each year separately, since
we are estimating annual reduced health risks. Design values based on the most recent
three-year period available are used to determine the amount of adjustment to apply to
each of these years. Because Os levels in 2004 were, in most locations, the lowest of the
three most recent years, applying a design value based on the most recent three-year
period available only to Os levels in 2004 would result in lower estimates of remaining
risk than would be the case if either of the other two years of the three-year period were
evaluated in the assessment. Conversely, because Os levels in 2002 were, in most
locations, the highest of the three most recent years, applying the same design value only
to Os levels in 2002 would result in higher estimates of remaining risk than would be the
case if either of the other two years of the three-year period were evaluated in the
assessment. Using both a year of generally higher Os levels (2002) and a year of
generally lower Os levels (2004) provides plausible ranges of estimates of annual
remaining risk and reductions in health risks in each location.
4.1.9.3 Baseline health effects incidence rates
Most of the C-R functions used in the Os risk assessment are log-linear (see
equation 4-1 in Section 4.1.1). Given this functional form, the percent change in
incidence of a health effect corresponding to a change in O3 depends only on the change
in Os levels (and not the actual value of either the initial or final Os concentration). This
percent change is multiplied by a baseline incidence, yo, in order to determine the change
in health effects incidence, as shown in equation (4-3) in Section 4.1.1:
Predicted changes in incidence therefore depend on the baseline incidence of the health
effect.
4.1.9.3.1 Quality of incidence data
County-specific incidence data were available for mortality for all counties. We
have also obtained hospital admissions baseline incidence data for all the urban areas for
which we have hospital admissions C-R functions for Os (Detroit, Los Angeles, and
Cleveland). This is clearly preferable to using non-local data, such as national or regional
incidence rates. As with any health statistics, however, misclassification of disease,
errors in coding, and difficulties in correctly assigning residence location are potential
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problems. These same potential sources of error are present in most epidemiological
studies. In most cases, the reporting institutions and agencies utilize standard forms and
codes for reporting, and quality control is monitored.
Data on hospital admissions are actually hospital discharge data rather than
admissions data. Because of this, the date associated with a given hospital stay is the date
of discharge rather than the date of admissions. Therefore, there may be some hospital
admissions in an assessment location that are within the O?, season that are not included
in the baseline incidence rate, if the date of discharge was after the ozone season ended,
even though the date of admissions was within the ozone season. Similarly, there may be
some hospital admissions that preceded the 63 season that are included in the baseline
incidence rate because the date of discharge was within the ozone season. This is a very
minor problem, however, partly because the percentage of such cases is likely to be very
small, and partly because the error at the beginning of the O3 season (i.e., admissions that
should not have been included but were) will largely cancel the error at the end of the 63
season (i.e., admissions that should have been included but were not).
Another minor uncertainty surrounding the hospital admissions baseline incidence
rates arises from the fact that these rates are based on the reporting of hospitals within
each of the assessment counties. Hospitals report the numbers of ICD code-specific
discharges in a given year. If people from outside the county use these hospitals, and/or
if residents of the county use hospitals outside the county, these rates will not accurately
reflect the numbers of county residents who were admitted to the hospital for specific
illnesses during the year, the rates that are desired for the risk assessment. Once again,
however, this is likely to be a very minor problem because the health conditions studied
tend to be acute events that require immediate hospitalization, rather than planned
hospital stays.
Regardless of the data source, if actual incidence rates are higher than the
incidence rates used, risks will be underestimated. If actual incidence rates are lower
than the incidence rates used, then risks will be overestimated.
Both morbidity and mortality rates change over time for various reasons. One of
the most important of these is that population age distributions change over time. The old
and the extremely young are more susceptible to many health problems than is the
population as a whole. The most recent available data were used in the risk assessment.
However, the average age of the population in many locations will increase as post-
World War n children age. Consequently, the baseline incidence rates for some
endpoints may rise, resulting in an increase in the number of cases attributable to any
given level of Os pollution. Alternatively, areas which experience rapid in-migration, as
is currently occurring in the South and West, may tend to have a decreasing mean
population age and corresponding changes in incidence rates and risk. Temporal changes
in incidence are relevant to both morbidity and mortality endpoints. However, recent
data were used in all cases, so temporal changes are not expected to be a large source of
uncertainty.
Abt Associates Inc. 4-39 December 2006
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4.1.9.3.2 Lack of daily health effects incidence rates
Both ambient O3 levels and the daily health effects incidence rates corresponding
to ambient O3 levels vary somewhat from day to day. Those analyses based on C-R
functions estimated by short-term exposure studies calculate daily changes in incidence
and sum them over the days of the O3 season to predict a total change in health effect
incidence during the O3 season (standardized in this analysis to April through
September). However, only annual baseline incidence rates are available. Average daily
baseline incidence rates, necessary for short-term daily C-R functions, were calculated by
dividing the annual rate by the number of days in the year for which the baseline
incidence rates were obtained. To the extent that O3 affects health, however, actual
incidence rates would be expected to be somewhat higher than average on days with high
O3 concentrations; using an average daily incidence rate would therefore result in
underestimating the changes in incidence on such days. Similarly, actual incidence rates
would be expected to be somewhat lower than average on days with low O3
concentrations; using an average daily incidence rate would therefore result in
overestimating the changes in incidence on low O3 days. Both effects would be expected
to be small, however, and should largely cancel one another out.
4.2 Results
The results of the assessment of health risks associated with "as is" O3
concentrations (representing levels measured in a recent year) over PRB levels are
presented in Section 4.2.1. The assessment of health risks associated with 2004 and 2002
"as is" O3 concentrations over PRB levels for all of the assessment locations are
presented in Section 4.2.1.1. The mortality-specific results associated with 2003 "as is"
O3 concentrations are presented, for a subset of five locations (Atlanta, Chicago,
Houston, Los Angeles, and New York), in Section 4.2.1.2.
The results of the assessment of the reduced health risks associated with O3
concentrations that just meet the current 8-hour daily maximum standard are presented in
Section 4.2.2. The results for all locations for the current standard and the original set of
seven standards, based on 2002 and 2004 air quality data, are presented in Section
4.2.2.1. The results for the five locations listed above for the current standard and five
alternative standards, based on 2002, 2003, and 2004 air quality data, are presented in
Section 4.2.2.2.
In both portions of the risk assessment, with the exception of respiratory
symptoms-days, all estimated incidences were rounded to the nearest whole number, and
all estimated incidences per 100,000 relevant population and all percentages were
rounded to one decimal place. Estimated incidences of respiratory symptom-days and
corresponding incidences per 100,000 relevant population were rounded to the nearest
100. These rounding conventions are not intended to imply confidence in that level of
precision, but rather to avoid the confusion that can result when a greater amount of
rounding is used (for example, when the central tendency estimate and both the lower and
Abt Associates Inc. 4-40 December 2006
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upper bounds of the 95 confidence or credible interval of incidence per 100,000 relevant
population are all less than 0.5.)
There is uncertainty surrounding all estimates of incidence associated with "as is"
O3 concentrations in any location. Because we had to simulate the profiles of O3
concentrations that just meet the current and alternative 8-hour daily maximum O3
standards in each location, there is additional uncertainty surrounding estimates of the
reduced incidence associated with O3 concentrations that just meet these O3 standards.
We tried to minimize the extent of this uncertainty by avoiding the application of a C-R
function estimated in one location to another location as much as possible. As discussed
in Section 4.1.9, however, there are other sources of uncertainty. The uncertainty
surrounding risk estimates resulting from the statistical uncertainty of the O3 coefficients
in the C-R functions used is characterized by ninety-five percent confidence or credible
intervals around estimates of incidence, incidence per 100,000 relevant population, and
the percent of total incidence that is O3-related. In some cases, the lower bound of a
confidence interval falls below zero. This does not imply that additional exposure to O3
has a beneficial effect, but only that the estimated O3 coefficient in the C-R function was
not statistically significantly different from zero. Lack of statistical significance could
mean that there is no relationship between O3 and the health endpoint or it could mean
that there wasn't sufficient statistical power to detect a relationship that exists.
Conversely, statistical significance does not prove causation. The case for a causal
relationship between O3 and a health endpoint rests on a variety of types of supporting
evidence, and overall confidence in such a causal relationship varies substantially across
health endpoints that have been associated with ambient O3, as illustrated in Figure 3-5 of
the Staff Paper (EPA, 2007a).
4.2.1 Assessment of the health risks associated with "as is" Os concentrations in
excess of policy relevant background levels
4.2.1.1 Assessment of the health risks associated with 2004 and 2002 "as is" Os
concentrations in excess of policy relevant background levels
The results of the assessment of mortality risks associated with "as is" O3
concentrations (representing levels measured in 2004 and in 2002 for all of the
assessment locations are summarized across urban areas in Figures 4-2a and b through 4-
8a and b, and in Tables 4-8 and 4-11. Figures 4-2a and b through 4-8a and b show results
expressed as percent of total incidence. The corresponding figures showing results
expressed as number of cases per 100,000 relevant population are given in Appendix D.
Figures 4-2a through 4-8a show results based on year 2004 air quality data; Figures 4-2b
through 4-8b show results based on 2002 air quality data. Only one study, Ito (2003) for
hospital admissions in Detroit, provided different lag models. The results from these
different lag models are shown in Figures 4-6a and b. All results are for health risks
associated with short-term exposures to O3 concentrations in excess of PRB levels from
April through September.
Although we carried out the analysis in each of the assessment locations, to
reduce the number of tables in this section of the report, we selected one location (New
Abt Associates Inc. 4-41 December 2006
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York City) to include here for illustrative purposes. Tables 4-12 and 4-13 show results in
New York for health endpoints associated with short-term exposure to "as is" O3
concentrations in excess of estimated PRB concentrations for 2004 and 2002 air quality
data, respectively. Results for the other locations corresponding to those shown for New
York in Tables 4-12 and 4-13 are shown in Appendix D, in Tables D-l through D-22.
The central tendency estimates in all of the figures and in Tables 4-8 through 4-13
and D-l through D-22 are based on the O3 coefficients estimated in the studies, or, in the
case of the location-specific estimates from Huang et al. (2004), on "shrinkage" estimates
based on the O3 coefficients estimated in the study (see Section 4.1.9.1.2). The ranges are
based either on the 95 percent confidence intervals (CIs) around those estimates (if the
coefficients were estimated using classical statistical techniques) or on the 95 percent
credible intervals (if the coefficients were estimated using Bayesian statistical
techniques).
Abt Associates Inc. 4-42 December 2006
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Figure 4-2. Estimated Annual Percent of (Non-Accidental) Mortality Associated with Short-Term
Exposure to O3 Above Background: Single-Pollutant, Single-City Models (April - September)
Figure 4-2a. Based on 2004 Air Quality
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Abt Associates Inc.
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December 2006
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Figure 4-3. Estimated Annual Percent of Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with Short-Term
Exposure to O3 Above Background (April - September): Single-Pollutant vs. Multi-Pollutant Models
[Huang et al. (2004), additional pollutants, from left to right: none, CO, NO2, PM10, SO2]
Figure 4-3a. Based on 2004 Air Quality
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Abt Associates Inc.
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December 2006
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Figure 4-4. Estimated Annual Percent of (Non-Accidental) Mortality Associated with Short-Term
Exposure to O3 Above Background (April - September): Single-City Model (left bar) vs. Multi-City
Model (right bar)
Figure 4-4a. Based on 2004 Air Quality
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Exposure to O3 Above Background (April - September): Single-City Model (left bar) vs. Multi-City
Model (right bar) - Based on Huang et al. (2004)
Figure 4-5a. Based on 2004 Air Quality
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Abt Associates Inc.
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December 2006
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Figure 4-6. Estimated Annual Percent of (Unscheduled) Hospital Admissions for Pneumonia in
Detroit Associated with Short-Term Exposure to O3 Above Background (April - September):
Different Lag Models - Based on Ito (2003) [bars from left to right are 0-day, 1-day, 2-day, and 3-day
lag models]
Figure 4-6a. Based on 2004 Air Quality
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-------
Figure 4-7. Estimated Annual Percent of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with Short-Term
Exposure to "As Is" O3 Above Background for the Period April - September (Based on Bell et al.,
2004 - 95 U.S. Cities) - Total and Contribution of 24-Hour O3 Ranges
Figure 4-7a. Based on 2004 Air Quality
D Attributable to 0.05 ppm<=ozone<0.06 ppm
D Attributable to 0.04 ppm<=ozone<0.05 ppm
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D Attributable to ozone < 0.03 ppm
Figure 4-7b. Based on 2002 Air Quality
D Attributable to 0.07 ppm<=ozone<0.08 ppm
• Attributable to 0.06 ppm<=ozone<0.07 ppm
D Attributable to 0.05 ppm<=ozone<0.06 ppm
D Attributable to 0.04 ppm<=ozone<0.05 ppm
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Abt Associates Inc.
4-48
December 2006
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Figure 4-8. Estimated Annual Percent of Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with Short-Term
Exposure to "As Is" O3 Above Background for the Period April - September (Based on Huang et al.,
2004 - 19 U.S. Cities) - Total and Contribution of 24-Hour O3 Ranges
Figure 4-8a. Based on 2004 Air Quality
3.0%
D Attributable to 0.05 ppm<=ozone<0.06 ppm
D Attributable to 0.04 ppm<=ozone<0.05 ppm
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D Attributable to ozoneO.03 ppm
Figure 4-8b. Based on 2002 Air Quality
3.0%
O
• Attributable to 0.06 ppm<=ozone<0.07 ppm
D Attributable to 0.05 ppm<=ozone<0.06 ppm
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• Attributable to 0.03 ppm<=ozone<0.04 ppm
D Attributable to ozoneO.03 ppm
O
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Abt Associates Inc.
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December 2006
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Table 4-8. Estimated Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: April - September, 2004*
Location
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell etal. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Ito (2003)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell etal. -95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell etal. -95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell etal. -95 US Cities (2004)
Moolgavkar et al. (1995)
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
1-day lag
Exposure Metric
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Above Policy Relevant Background Levels**
Incidence
6
(-26 - 38)
12
(4 - 20)
7
(2-12)
49
(16-81)
394
(125-658)
148
(46 - 250)
27
(-17-69)
17
(6 - 28)
33
(-11 -76)
17
(6 - 28)
128
(-21 - 274)
70
(22-117)
40
(-37 - 1 1 6)
35
(2 - 67)
17
(6 - 28)
93
(9-176)
78
(24 - 1 30)
62
(-149-271)
133
(45 - 221 )
60
(20 - 1 00)
23
(8 - 38)
82
(52-112)
Incidence per 100,000
Relevant Population
0.4
(-1.8-2.6)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .4)
1.0
(0.3-1.7)
0.9
(0.3-1.5)
7.3
(2.3- 12.2)
2.8
(0.9 - 4.6)
1.9
(-1.2-5)
1.2
(0.4 - 2)
1.6
(-0.5 - 3.7)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .4)
6.2
(-1 -13.3)
3.4
(1.1-5.7)
2.0
(-1.8-5.6)
1.0
(0.1 - 2)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.8)
2.7
(0.3 - 5.2)
2.3
(0.7 - 3.8)
0.6
(-1.6-2.8)
1.4
(0.5 - 2.3)
0.7
(0.2- 1.1)
1.5
(0.5 - 2.5)
5.4
(3.4 - 7.4)
Percent of Total Incidence
0.1%
(-0.6% - 0.8%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
1.9%
(0.6% -3.1%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .2%)
0.4%
(-0.2% - 0.9%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.4%
(-0.1% -0.8%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
1.4%
(-0.2% - 2.9%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .2%)
0.4%
(-0.4% - 1 .2%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
1%
(0.1% -1.9%)
0.9%
(0.3% - 1 .4%)
0.2%
(-0.5% -1%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
1%
(0.6% - 1 .4%)
Abt Associates Inc.
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December 2006
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Location
Sacramento
St Louis
Washington, D.C.
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell etal. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell etal. -95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
Exposure Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Above Policy Relevant Background Levels**
Incidence
12
(-36 - 59)
18
(6 - 29)
3
(-6-13)
3
(1-5)
8
(3-14)
Incidence per 100,000
Relevant Population
1.0
(-3 - 4.8)
1.4
(0.5 - 2.4)
1.0
(-1.7-3.6)
0.9
(0.3-1.5)
1.5
(0.5 - 2.4)
Percent of Total Incidence
0.3%
(-0.9% - 1 .4%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.2%
(-0.3% - 0.6%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
*AII results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the
nearest tenth.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
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December 2006
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Table 4-9. Estimated Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: April - September, 2002*
Location
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell etal. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Ito (2003)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell etal. -95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell etal. -95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell etal. -95 US Cities (2004)
Moolgavkar et al. (1995)
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
1-day lag
Exposure Metric
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Above Policy Relevant Background Levels**
Incidence
9
(-37 - 54)
17
(6 - 29)
10
(3-17)
69
(23-115)
505
(161 -840)
191
(60 - 321 )
61
(-38- 157)
38
(1 3 - 64)
57
(-18- 131)
29
(1 0 - 48)
181
(-30 - 385)
99
(31 -165)
69
(-64-198)
29
(2 - 57)
14
(5 - 24)
85
(8-161)
71
(22-119)
51
(-1 24 - 224)
110
(37 - 1 84)
105
(35 - 1 74)
37
(1 2 - 62)
132
(83 - 1 80)
Incidence per 100,000
Relevant Population
0.6
(-2.5 - 3.6)
1.2
(0.4- 1.9)
1.5
(0.5 - 2.5)
1.3
(0.4-2.1)
9.4
(3- 15.6)
3.6
(1.1-6)
4.3
(-2.7 -11.3)
2.8
(0.9 - 4.6)
2.8
(-0.9 - 6.3)
1.4
(0.5 - 2.3)
8.8
(-1.4-18.7)
4.8
(1 .5 - 8)
3.4
(-3.1 -9.6)
0.9
(0.1-1.7)
0.4
(0.1 - 0.7)
2.5
(0.2 - 4.7)
2.1
(0.7 - 3.5)
0.5
(-1.3-2.4)
1.2
(0.4-1.9)
1.2
(0.4 - 2)
2.4
(0.8-4.1)
8.7
(5.5- 11.9)
Percent of Total Incidence
0.2%
(-0.8% - 1 .2%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
2.4%
(0.8% - 4%)
0.9%
(0.3% - 1 .5%)
0.8%
(-0.5% -2.1%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.6%
(-0.2% - 1 .4%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
1.9%
(-0.3% -4.1%)
1%
(0.3% - 1 .8%)
0.7%
(-0.7% -2.1%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.9%
(0.1% -1.8%)
0.8%
(0.2% - 1 .3%)
0.2%
(-0.5% - 0.8%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
1.6%
(1% -2.2%)
Abt Associates Inc.
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December 2006
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Location
Sacramento
St Louis
Washington
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell etal. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell etal. -95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
Exposure Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Above Policy Relevant Background Levels**
Incidence
16
(-48 - 78)
23
(8 - 39)
6
(-1 1 - 23)
6
(2-10)
15
(5 - 25)
Incidence per 100,000
Relevant Population
1.3
(-3.9 - 6.4)
1.9
(0.6 - 3.2)
1.9
(-3.1 -6.7)
1.7
(0.6 - 2.8)
2.6
(0.9 - 4.4)
Percent of Total Incidence
0.4%
(-1.1% -1.9%)
0.6%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.3%
(-0.5% - 1 .2%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.6%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
*AII results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the
nearest tenth.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
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December 2006
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Table 4-10. Estimated Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations:
April - September, 2004*
Risk Assessment Location
Atlanta
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Study Location
Atlanta
19 U.S. Cities
Chicago
19 U.S. Cities
Cleveland
19 U.S. Cities
Detroit
19 U.S. Cities
Houston
19 U.S. Cities
Los Angeles
19 U.S. Cities
New York
19 U.S. Cities
Philadelphia
19 U.S. Cities
Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with O3 Above Policy Relevant Background Levels**
Incidence
8
(-3-18)
8
(3-13)
23
(-21 - 66)
38
(14-61)
16
(0 - 32)
14
(5 - 22)
15
(-2-31)
14
(5 - 22)
12
(-2 - 26)
13
(5 - 20)
99
(1 -195)
115
(44- 185)
73
(23-123)
54
(21 - 87)
20
(1 - 39)
17
(6 - 27)
Incidence per 100,000 Relevant
Population
0.5
(-0.2 - 1 .2)
0.5
(0.2-0.9)
0.4
(-0.4 - 1 .2)
0.7
(0.3-1.1)
1.2
(0 - 2.3)
1.0
(0.4 - 1 .6)
0.7
(-0.1 -1.5)
0.7
(0.3-1.1)
0.4
(0 - 0.8)
0.4
(0.1 -0.6)
1.0
(0-2.1)
1.2
(0.5 - 1 .9)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .4)
0.6
(0.2-1)
1.3
(0.1 -2.6)
1.1
(0.4 - 1 .8)
Percent of Total Incidence
0.8%
(-0.3% - 1 .8%)
0.8%
(0.3% - 1 .3%)
0.4%
(-0.4% - 1 .3%)
0.7%
(0.3% - 1 .2%)
0.9%
(0% - 1 .7%)
0.7%
(0.3% - 1 .2%)
0.6%
(-0.1% -1.3%)
0.6%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.6%
(-0.1% -1.2%)
0.6%
(0.2% - 1 %)
1.3%
(0% - 2.6%)
1.6%
(0.6% - 2.5%)
0.8%
(0.3% - 1 .4%)
0.6%
(0.2% - 1 %)
1.1%
(0.1% -2.1%)
0.9%
(0.3% - 1 .5%)
*AII results are for Cardiorespiratory mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. Results are based on single-pollutant single-city models or a single-
pollutant multi-city model estimated in Huang et al. (2004).
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant
population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
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December 2006
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Table 4-11. Estimated Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations:
April - September, 2002*
Risk Assessment Location
Atlanta
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Study Location
Atlanta
19 U.S. Cities
Chicago
19 U.S. Cities
Cleveland
19 U.S. Cities
Detroit
19 U.S. Cities
Houston
19 U.S. Cities
Los Angeles
19 U.S. Cities
New York
19 U.S. Cities
Philadelphia
19 U.S. Cities
Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with O3 Above Policy Relevant Background Levels**
Incidence
11
(-4 - 25)
11
(4-18)
32
(-29 - 93)
53
(20 - 86)
36
(-1 - 72)
31
(1 2 - 49)
26
(-3 - 54)
24
(9 - 38)
10
(-1 - 22)
11
(4-17)
82
(1 -162)
95
(36-153)
128
(41 - 21 3)
94
(36-151)
33
(2 - 63)
27
(1 0 - 43)
Incidence per 100,000 Relevant
Population
0.7
(-0.2 - 1 .7)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .2)
0.6
(-0.5 - 1 .7)
1.0
(0.4 - 1 .6)
2.6
(-0.1 - 5.2)
2.2
(0.8-3.5)
1.2
(-0.1 - 2.6)
1.1
(0.4 - 1 .8)
0.3
(0 - 0.6)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
0.9
(0 - 1 .7)
1.0
(0.4 - 1 .6)
1.4
(0.5 - 2.4)
1.1
(0.4 - 1 .7)
2.2
(0.1 -4.1)
1.8
(0.7-2.8)
Percent of Total Incidence
1.1%
(-0.4% - 2.6%)
1.2%
(0.5% - 1 .9%)
0.6%
(-0.6% - 1 .8%)
1%
(0.4% - 1 .7%)
2%
(0% - 3.9%)
1.6%
(0.6% - 2.6%)
1.1%
(-0.1% -2.2%)
1%
(0.4% - 1 .6%)
0.5%
(-0.1%-1%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
1.1%
(0% - 2.2%)
1.3%
(0.5% -2.1%)
1.4%
(0.5% - 2.4%)
1.1%
(0.4% - 1 .7%)
1.8%
(0.1% -3.4%)
1.5%
(0.6% - 2.3%)
*AII results are for Cardiorespiratory mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. Results are based on single-pollutant single-city models or a single-
pollutant multi-city model estimated in Huang et al. (2004).
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant
population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
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December 2006
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Table 4-12. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: New York, NY, April - September, 2004
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-accidental
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Hospital admissions
(unscheduled), respiratory
Hospital admissions
(unscheduled), asthma
Study
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)***
Huang etal. (2004)***
Huang et al. - 19 US Cities (2004)***
Huang et al. - 19 US Cities (2004)***
Huang et al. - 19 US Cities (2004)***
Huang et al. - 19 US Cities (2004)***
Huang et al. - 19 US Cities (2004)***
Thurston et al. (1992)****
Thurston et al. (1992)****
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
Lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
3-day lag
1 -day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
Other
Pollutants
In Model
none
none
none
CO
N02
PM10
S02
none
none
Health Effects Associated with O3 Above Policy Relevant Background
Levels**
Incidence
60
(20-100)
73
(23- 123)
54
(21 - 87)
30
(9-51)
26
(5 - 47)
32
(-12-76)
22
(0 - 44)
447
(108-786)
382
(81 - 683)
Incidence per 100,000
Relevant Population
0.7
(0.2-1.1)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .4)
0.6
(0.2 - 1)
0.3
(0.1 - 0.6)
0.3
(0.1 - 0.5)
0.4
(-0.1 - 0.8)
0.2
(0 - 0.5)
5.6
(1.4-9.8)
4.8
(1 - 8.5)
Percent of Total Incidence
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.8%
(0.3% - 1 .4%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.4%
(-0.1% -0.9%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
1 .3%
(0.3% - 2.2%)
2.9%
(0.6% - 5.2%)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the
nearest tenth.
***New York in this study is defined as the five boroughs of New York City plus Westchester County.
****New York in this study is defined as the five boroughs of New York City.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
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December 2006
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Table 4-13. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: New York, NY, April - September, 2002
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-accidental
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Hospital admissions
(unscheduled), respiratory
Hospital admissions
(unscheduled), asthma
Study
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)***
Huang et al. (2004)***
Huang et al. - 19 US Cities (2004)***
Huang et al. - 19 US Cities (2004)***
Huang et al. - 19 US Cities (2004)***
Huang et al. - 19 US Cities (2004)***
Huang et al. - 19 US Cities (2004)***
Thurston et al. (1992)****
Thurston et al. (1992)****
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
Lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
3-day lag
1-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
Other
Pollutants
in Model
none
none
none
CO
N02
PM10
S02
none
none
Health Effects Associated with O3 Above Policy Relevant Background Levels**
Incidence
105
(35 - 1 74)
128
(41 -213)
94
(36 -151)
52
(15-89)
45
(8 - 82)
56
(-22-132)
39
(0 - 77)
608
(147-1068)
519
(110-928)
Incidence per 100,000
Relevant Population
1.2
(0.4 - 2)
1.4
(0.5 - 2.4)
1.1
(0.4- 1.7)
0.6
(0.2-1)
0.5
(0.1 - 0.9)
0.6
(-0.2 - 1 .5)
0.4
(0 - 0.9)
7.6
(1.8-13.3)
6.5
(1.4-11.6)
Percent of Total Incidence
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
1.4%
(0.5% - 2.4%)
1.1%
(0.4% - 1 .7%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1%)
0.5%
(0.1% -0.9%)
0.6%
(-0.2% - 1 .5%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.9%)
1.7%
(0.4% - 3%)
4%
(0.8% -7.1%)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number;
nearest tenth.
***New York in this study is defined as the five boroughs of New York City plus Westchester County.
****New York in this study is defined as the five boroughs of New York City.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the
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December 2006
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As discussed in Section 4.1.4, assessment locations were chosen in part on the
basis of whether an acceptable C-R function had been reported for that location. As a
result, risks were estimated in a given assessment location only for those health endpoints
for which there is at least one acceptable C-R function reported for that location. The set
of health effects shown in Tables 4-12 and 4-13 and Tables C-l through C-22 therefore
varies from one location to another. For example, hospital admissions for pneumonia
associated with short-term exposure to 63 is included in Tables C-9 and C-10 for Detroit,
but no hospital admissions endpoints are included in Tables C-l through C-6 for Atlanta,
Boston, and Chicago, because there was no study that met the selection criteria that
reports a C-R function for hospital admissions reported in the O3 epidemiological
literature for any of those cities evaluated in the 63 CD. For non-accidental mortality
associated with short-term exposure to Os, Figures 4-4a and b display estimates for only
nine of the twelve risk assessment locations because single-city C-R functions for this
health outcome were not available for the other three locations.
All results discussed below are for April through September. The top graph on
each page shows results based on 2004 air quality, and the bottom graph shows results
based on 2002 air quality. Figures 4-2a and b show estimated percent of non-accidental
mortality related to "as is" 63 concentrations over PRB levels, based on single-pollutant,
single-city models across all locations for which such models were available. Tables 4-8
and 4-9 show estimates of incidence, incidence per 100,000 relevant population, and
percent of total incidence of non-accidental mortality related to "as is" O3 concentrations
over PRB levels in all locations, based on both single-city and multi-city models, using
air quality data for 2004 and 2002, respectively.
Estimates of O3-related (non-accidental) mortality based on 2004 air quality
(Table 4-8) ranged from 0.4 per 100,000 relevant population in Atlanta (Bell et al., 2004)
to 7.3 per 100,000 relevant population in Chicago (Schwartz, 2004). The corresponding
range based on 2002 air quality (Table 4-9) is from 0.4 per 100,000 relevant population
in Houston (Bell et al., 2004) to 9.4 per 100,000 relevant population in Chicago
(Schwartz, 2004). Estimated (Vrelated (non-accidental) mortality reported by Schwartz
(2004) for Chicago, Detroit, and Houston, based on both the single-city and the multi-city
C-R functions, tend to be higher than other estimates in those locations in large part
because Schwartz used the 1-hr maximum O3 concentration, rather than the 24-hour
average, as the exposure metric. The changes from "as is" 1-hr maximum to PRB 1-hr
maximum O?, concentrations were generally larger in the assessment locations than the
corresponding changes from "as is" 24-hr average to PRB 24-hr average Os
concentrations. As a percent of total incidence, estimated O3-related (non-accidental)
mortality ranged from 0.1 percent in Atlanta (Bell et al., 2004) to 1.9 percent in Chicago
(Schwartz, 2004), using 2004 air quality data. Using 2002 air quality data, the range was
from 0.2 percent in Atlanta (Bell et al., 2004), Houston (Bell et al., 2004), and Los
Angeles (Bell et al., 2004) to 2.4 percent in Chicago (Schwartz, 2004). Although 7 of the
12 estimates from single-city single-pollutant models shown in Figure 4-4 were not
statistically significant, all 12 were positive.
Abt Associates Inc. 4-58 December 2006
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Figures 4-3a and b show estimated percent of cardiorespiratory mortality related
to "as is" O3 concentrations over PRB levels, based on multi-city single-pollutant versus
multi-pollutant models from Huang et al. (2004) across all locations for which such
models were available. Tables 4-10 and 4-11 show estimates of incidence, incidence per
100,000 relevant population, and percent of total incidence of cardiorespiratory mortality
related to "as is" O3 concentrations over PRB levels in all risk assessment locations
covered in Huang et al. (2004), based on both single-city and multi-city single-pollutant
models from that study. Estimates of Os-related cardiorespiratory mortality ranged from
0.4 per 100,000 relevant population in Chicago (using the single-city C-R function) and
Houston (using both the single-city and the multi-city C-R functions) to 1.3 per 100,000
relevant population in Philadelphia (using the single-city C-R function), when 2004 air
quality data was used. The corresponding range using 2002 air quality data was from 0.3
per 100,000 relevant population in Houston (using both the single-city and the multi-city
C-R functions) to 2.6 per 100,000 relevant population in Cleveland (using the single-city
C-R function). As a percent of total incidence, estimated (Vrelated cardiorespiratory
mortality ranged from 0.4 percent in Chicago (using the single-city C-R function) to 1.6
percent in Los Angeles (using the multi-city C-R function), when 2004 air quality data
was used. The corresponding range using 2002 air quality data was from 0.5 percent in
Houston (using both the single-city and the multi-city C-R functions) to 2 percent in
Cleveland (using the single-city C-R function). All of the estimates of (Vrelated
cardiorespiratory mortality based on Huang et al. (2004), from both single-city and multi-
city models, and from both single-pollutant and multi-pollutant models, were positive.
Five of the single-city single-pollutant "shrinkage" estimates (for Atlanta, Chicago,
Cleveland, Detroit, and Houston) and the estimate from the multi-city multi-pollutant
model with PMio were not statistically significant. All the rest of the estimates of
-------
Estimated Os-related pneumonia hospital admissions in Detroit (Ito 2003), shown
in Figures 4-6a and b, increased monotonically with increasing lag, with the greatest
estimate predicted by a 3-day lag model. None of the estimates of (Vrelated
unscheduled hospital admissions in Detroit were statistically significant.
Figures 4-7a and b and 4-8a and b show the estimated annual percent of non-
accidental mortality and cardiorespiratory mortality, respectively, associated with short-
term exposure to "as is" Os concentrations within specified ranges. In 2004, all (V
related non-accidental mortality was associated with Os concentrations less than 0.06
ppm, and most of that was associated with O3 concentrations less than 0.04 ppm. In
2002, all (Vrelated non-accidental mortality was associated with 63 concentrations less
than 0.08 ppm, and the great majority was associated with Os concentrations less than
0.06 ppm. The results for cardiorespiratory mortality follow a similar pattern.
"
4.2.1.2 Assessment of the mortality risks associated with 2003 "as is
concentrations in excess of policy relevant background levels in five urban
areas
The non-accidental mortality risks associated with 2003 "as is" O3 concentrations
in excess of PRB levels in Atlanta, Chicago, Houston, Los Angeles, and New York are
shown in Table 4-14. The corresponding cardiorespiratory mortality risks are shown in
Table 4-15. The non-accidental mortality risks associated with 2003 "as is" Os
concentrations in excess of PRB levels, measured as percent of total incidence, are very
similar to those associated with 2002 and/or 2004 "as is" 63 concentrations in excess of
PRB levels, as can be seen by comparing the results in Table 4-14 with the results for a
recent year of air quality in Tables H-6 (for 2004) and 4-36 (for 2002) for the five
locations included in the 2003 analysis. The cardiorespiratory mortality risks associated
with 2003 "as is" 63 concentrations in excess of PRB levels, measured as percent of total
incidence, are similarly very close to those associated with 2002 and/or 2004 "as is" Os
concentrations in excess of PRB levels, as can be seen by comparing the results in Table
4-15 with the results for a recent year of air quality in Tables H-12 (for 2004) and 4-39
(for 2002) for the five locations included in the 2003 analysis.
Abt Associates Inc. 4-60 December 2006
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Table 4-14. Estimated Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: April - September, 2003*
Location
Atlanta
Chicago
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell etal. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell etal. -95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell etal. -95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
Exposure Metric
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Above Policy Relevant Background Levels**
Incidence
6
(-26 - 37)
12
(4 - 20)
64
(22 - 1 07)
445
(141 -742)
168
(53 - 282)
36
(2 - 70)
18
(6 - 30)
101
(9-191)
84
(26 - 1 41 )
56
(-1 36 - 246)
121
(41 - 201 )
79
(27 - 1 32)
Incidence per 100,000
Relevant Population
0.4
(-1.7-2.5)
0.8
(0.3- 1.3)
1.2
(0.4 - 2)
8.3
(2.6-13.8)
3.1
(1 - 5.3)
1.1
(0.1 - 2)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.9)
3.0
(0.3 - 5.6)
2.5
(0.8 - 4.2)
0.6
(-1.4-2.6)
1.3
(0.4-2.1)
0.9
(0.3- 1.5)
Percent of Total Incidence
0.1%
(-0.6% - 0.8%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
2.1%
(0.7% - 3.5%)
0.8%
(0.2% - 1 .3%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.8%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
1.1%
(0.1% -2.1%)
0.9%
(0.3% - 1 .6%)
0.2%
(-0.5% - 0.9%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.4%)
*AII results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the
nearest tenth.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
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December 2006
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Table 4-15. Estimated Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations:
April - September, 2003*
Risk Assessment Location
Atlanta
Chicago
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Study Location
Atlanta
19 U.S. Cities
Chicago
19 U.S. Cities
Houston
19 U.S. Cities
Los Angeles
19 U.S. Cities
New York
19 U.S. Cities
Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with O3 Above Policy Relevant Background Levels**
Incidence
8
(-2-17)
8
(3-13)
30
(-27 - 86)
49
(1 9 - 80)
13
(-2 - 27)
13
(5-21)
90
(1-178)
104
(40-168)
97
(31 - 161)
71
(27 - 1 1 4)
Incidence per 100,000 Relevant
Population
0.5
(-0.2 - 1 .2)
0.5
(0.2-0.9)
0.6
(-0.5 - 1 .6)
0.9
(0.4 - 1 .5)
0.4
(0 - 0.8)
0.4
(0.1 -0.6)
0.9
(0 - 1 .9)
1.1
(0.4 - 1 .8)
1.1
(0.3 - 1 .8)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .3)
Percent of Total Incidence
0.8%
(-0.3% - 1 .8%)
0.8%
(0.3% - 1 .3%)
0.6%
(-0.5% - 1 .7%)
1%
(0.4% - 1 .6%)
0.6%
(-0.1% -1.3%)
0.6%
(0.2% - 1 %)
1.2%
(0% - 2.4%)
1.4%
(0.5% - 2.3%)
1.1%
(0.3% - 1 .8%)
0.8%
(0.3% - 1 .3%)
*AII results are for Cardiorespiratory mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. Results are based on single-pollutant single-city models or a single-
pollutant multi-city model estimated in Huang et al. (2004).
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant
population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
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December 2006
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4.2.2 Assessment of the reduced health risks associated with Os concentrations
that just meet the current and alternative 8-hour standards
The results of the assessment of the reduced health risks associated with 63
concentrations that just meet the current and alternative 8-hour daily maximum standards
are presented in two parts. In Section 4.2.2.1, we present results for the current standard
and the original set of seven alternative 8-hour daily maximum standards considered,
based on adjusting 2002 and 2004 air quality. In Section 4.2.2.2, we present results for
the current standard and a smaller set of two alternative standards in Atlanta, Chicago,
Houston, Los Angeles, and New York, based on 2002, 2003, and 2004 air quality. As
noted above (see Section 3.2.2), an 8-hr average standard, denoted m/n, is characterized
by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current
standard is 0.084/4 - 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. The 3rd, 4th, and 5th
daily maximum standards, denoted m/n, for n = 3, 4, and 5, require that the average of the
three annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level
(e.g., 0.084 ppm).
4.2.2.1 Results for all locations for the current standard and the original set of
seven standards, based on 2002 and 2004 air quality data
The results of the assessment of the reduced mortality risks associated with O3
concentrations that just meet the current and alternative 8-hour daily maximum standards
(based on 2004 and in 2002 air quality data for all of the assessment locations) are
summarized across urban areas in Figures 4-9a and b through 4-17a and b, and in Tables
4-16 through 4-27. Figures 4-9a and b through 4-15a and b show results expressed as
percent of total incidence. The corresponding figures showing results expressed as
number of cases per 100,000 relevant population are given in Appendix E. Figures 4-16a
and b and 4-17a and b show results for Os-related non-accidental and cardiorespiratory
mortality, respectively, expressed as estimated percent reductions from the current
standard to alternative standards, separately for each location. These percent reductions
were calculated as mortality under the current standard minus mortality under an
alternative standard divided by mortality under the current standard. A reduction in
mortality therefore results in a positive percent - i.e., a positive reduction. Figures 4-9a
through 4-17a show results based on year 2004 air quality data; Figures 4-9b through 4-
17b show results based on 2002 air quality data. Tables 4-16, 4-17, and 4-18 show
estimated incidence, incidence per 100,000 relevant population, and percent of total
incidence, respectively, of non-accidental mortality associated with O3 concentrations that
just meet the current and alternative 8-hour daily maximum standards, based on 2004 63
concentrations. Tables 4-19, 4-20, and 4-21 show results for the same measures of non-
accidental mortality risk based on 2002 Os concentrations. Tables 4-22 through 4-27
show the corresponding results for cardiorespiratory mortality. All results are for health
risks associated with short-term exposures to 63 concentrations in excess of PRB levels
from April through September.
Abt Associates Inc. 4-63 December 2006
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Tables 4-28 through 4-30 show results in New York City for health endpoints
associated with short-term exposure to O3 concentrations that just meet the current and
alternative 8-hour daily maximum standards, based on 2004 63 concentrations. Tables 4-
31 through 4-33 show the corresponding results based on 2002 Os concentrations.
Results for the other locations corresponding to those shown for New York in Tables 4-
28 through 4-33 are shown in Appendix E, in Tables E-l through E-66.
As described in the previous section, the central tendency estimates in all of the
figures and tables are based on the Os coefficients estimated in the studies, or, in the case
of the location-specific estimates from Huang et al. (2004), on "shrinkage" estimates
based on the 63 coefficients estimated in the study (see Section 4.1.9.1.2). The ranges are
based either on the 95 percent confidence intervals around those estimates (if the
coefficients were estimated using classical statistical techniques) or on the 95 percent
credible intervals (if the coefficients were estimated using Bayesian statistical
techniques).
Abt Associates Inc. 4-64 December 2006
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Figure 4-9. Estimated Annual Percent of (Non-Accidental) Mortality Associated with Short-Term
Exposure to O3 Above Background When the Current 8-Hour Standard is Just Met: Single-
Pollutant, Single-City Models (April - September)
Figure 4-9a. Based on 2004 Air Quality
o
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5% -
1.0%
0.5%
ra 0.0%
° -0.5%
° -1.0%
s.
ro
-3-
8
CM
"ro
~u
c
•a 2.0%
(B
- 1.5%
o
g 1.0%
•c
'o 0 5%
c
ra 0.0%
H -0 5%
n—
° 1 n%
c
01 ^
2 c
s. "
f
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1 i ?
r -5i
S 1
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r "* "^ o "*
-S^"S"S^ = 15^-s^
ro ro
iliil|ilifgii
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CD)(O^O *jfO— (D
roro^aj^ ^"Jn^j~
f .y > Q ^ g^g>-§-
^-^
-------
Figure 4-10. Estimated Annual Percent of Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with Short-Term
Exposure to O3 Above Background When the Current 8-Hour Standard is Just Met (April -
September): Single-Pollutant vs. Multi-Pollutant Models [Huang et al. (2004), additional pollutants,
from left to right: none, CO, NO2, PM10, SO2]
Figure 4-10a. Based on 2004 Air Quality
s>
1.8%
2.3%
O
s?
>o
o>
•a
c
s.
a>
o
c
Ol
2 1.3%
o
15
'o
! 0.8%
c
01
0.3%
-0.2%
Atlanta Chicago Cleveland Detroit Houston Los
Angeles
New York Philadelphia
Figure 4-10b. Based on 2002 Air Quality
2.3% -,
O
s?
S
•c 1.8%
ro
01
o
01
2 1.3%
o
_c
15
o
£ 0.8%
+••
s
0
°~ 0.3%
-0.2%
" '
Atlanta
•
\\-
Chicago Cleveland Detroit
Houston
Los
New
••
York Philadelphia
Angeles
Abt Associates Inc.
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December 2006
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Figure 4-11. Estimated Annual Percent of (Non-Accidental) Mortality Associated with Short-Term
Exposure to O3 Above Background When the Current 8-Hour Standard is Just Met (April -
September): Single-City Model (left bar) vs. Multi-City Model (right bar)
Figure 4-lla. Based on 2004 Air Quality
^ 3 5<%
o? 3 0%
"c 2 5%
ro
1 — 9 n%
c 1 5% -
^ 1 .0%
— o 5%
ro
"o 0 0%
l-
O ' °
•s -1 n%
1 ,
i
• {
1 + •
• + 1 r
i T i
•55
.tl
I
-c
o
M
a)
>
O
-
.
Figure 4-1 Ib. Based on 2002 Air Quality
U 3 50/
g 3.0%
"c 2 5%
ro
"oT 2.0%
c 1 5% -
^ 1 .0%
- 0.5%
"5 0.0%
O ' °
"c -1 0%
" 1
" I
4 T i + •
01
§ s s s a
°- s s ° °
•^ -ti ~ _ = —
c 1 -
-------
Figure 4-12. Estimated Annual Percent of Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with Short-Term
Exposure to O3 Above Background When the Current 8-Hour Standard is Just Met (April -
September): Single-City Model (left bar) vs. Multi-City Model (right bar) - Based on Huang et al.
(2004)
Figure 4-12a. Based on 2004 Air Quality
o co/_
3 0%
O
s?
S 2 5%
•a
c
ro
1 — 9 n%
o
c
01
•c 1 5<% .
o
_c
~ 1 0%
o
H
° o 5%
c
Ol
£2
ol 0 0%
-0 5%
. •
Atlanta
•
Chicago Cleveland Detroit
'I
Houston Los New
Angeles
York Philadelphia
Figure 4-12b. Based on 2002 Air Quality
q co/_
3 0%
O
s?
S 2 5%
•a
c
ro
1 — 9 n%
o
c
Ol
•c 1 50^ .
o
_c
S 1 0%
o
1-
^ 0 5%
c
Ol
E
ol o 0%
-0 5%
•
Atlanta
Chicago Cleveland Detroit
•1
Houston Los New York Philadelphia
Angeles
Abt Associates Inc.
4-68
December 2006
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Figure 4-13. Estimated Annual Percent of (Unscheduled) Hospital Admissions for Pneumonia in
Detroit Associated with Short-Term Exposure to O3 Above Background When the Current 8-Hour
Standard is Just Met (April - September): Different Lag Models - Based on Ito (2003) [bars from
left to right are 0-day, 1-day, 2-day, and 3-day lag models]
Figure 4-13a. Based on 2004 Air Quality
4 0%
3 0%
O
S? 2.0%
$
01
o
c 0 0%
0)
•c
o
c 1 n%
15
o
l- _2 0%
"5
§ -3 0%
£
-4 0%
.=; n% -
0-day
1-day
2-day
3-day
Figure 4-13b. Based on 2002
4 0%
3.0% -
U 2 0% -
a>
~o 1 n%
ro
o 0 0% -
01
•c
'o _1 0% -
15
•g -2 0%
"5
- -3.0% -
01
£* 4 n%
-5 0% -
Air Quality
0-day
1-day
2-day
3-day
Abt Associates Inc.
4-69
December 2006
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Figure 4-14. Estimated Annual Percent of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with Short-Term
Exposure to O3 Above Policy Relevant Background for the Period April - September When the
Current 8-Hour Standard is Just Met (Based on Bell et al., 2004 - 95 U.S. Cities) - Total and
Contribution of 24-Hour O3 Ranges
Figure 4-14a. Based on 2004 Air Quality
1.00%
o
D Attributable to 0.04 ppm<=ozone<0.05 ppm
• Attributable to 0.03 ppm<=ozone<0.04 ppm
n Attributable to ozoneO.03 ppm
Figure 4-14b. Based on 2002 Air Quality
1 nno/
o
m 0 80%
o>
•o
c
-2.
8 0 60%
c
01
•o
'5
c
•5 0.40%
'o
n-
0
'c 0 20%
01
o
£
n nn%
•i-
-
n
'c
2
5
i
1
Boston
Chicago
•
• Attributable to 0.06 ppm<=ozone<0.07 ppm
n Attributable to 0.05 ppm<=ozone<0.06 ppm
D Attributable to 0.04 ppm<=ozone<0.05 ppm
• Attributable to 0.03 ppm<=ozone<0.04 ppm
D Attributable to ozoneO.03 ppm
r
•
n
Cleveland
Detroit
I
I m
±1 1
R 1
1 1
- R -
.
—
i •
t
£ w •£ .2 o « £
S « 5 •= c = o
w ai f. a. 5 o — .
1 I 1 I i S |s
s * 1 1 I
Abt Associates Inc.
4-70
December 2006
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Figure 4-15. Estimated Annual Percent of Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with Short-Term
Exposure to O3 Above Policy Relevant Background for the Period April - September When the
Current 8-Hour Standard is Just Met (Based on Huang et al., 2004 - 19 U.S. Cities) - Total and
Contribution of 24-Hour O3 Ranges
Figure 4-15a. Based on 2004 Air Quality
O 2 0%
3»
m
•a
1 ., 50X)
01
o
c
01
•o
'o
— i 0%
15
'o
"5
•s n *=;%
01
0 0%
• Attributable to 0.
n Attributable to o~
04 ppm<=ozone<0.05 ppm
03 ppm<=ozone<0.04 ppm
oneO.03 ppm
T
si i X T n r
FJ=\ pL rn rq
\—\ \ \
1|*1J3*I
™ S .2 ~ (A'oipQ.
s 8 I s 1 I 1 1
O (A Z i=
5 £
Figure 4-15b. Based on 2002 Air Quality
2.5%
2.0%
•o
* 1.5%
1.0%
n
'o
0.5%
0.0%
• Attributable to 0.06 ppm<=ozone<0.07 ppm
n Attributable to 0.05 ppm<=ozone<0.06 ppm
O Attributable to 0.04 ppm<=ozone<0.05 ppm
• Attributable to 0.03 ppm<=ozone<0.04 ppm
O Attributable to ozoneO.03 ppm
o
01
n
o
IE
O
•o
c
2
01
>
Si
o
c
o
1
o
.
01
OI
_
01
•o
n
Abt Associates Inc.
4-71
December 2006
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Figure 4-16. Estimated Percent Reductions From the Current Standard to Alternative Standards in
O3-Related Non-Accidental Mortality, Separately for Each Location (Based on Bell et al., 2004 — 95
U.S. Cities)*
Figure 4-16a. Based on 2004 Air Quality
ra
55
O
E
01
O)
c
ra
.n
O
01
o
£
-100%
-120%
2004 air 0.084/4 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4
quality
Alternative Standard
-Atlanta: 9 (3 -15); 0.2% (0.1% - 0.3%)
Chicago: 33 (11 - 55); 0.2% (0.1 % - 0.3%)
- Detroit: 12 (4 - 20); 0.1% (0% - 0.2%)
-Los Angeles: 67 (22-111); 0.2% (0.1% - 0.4%)
-Philadelphia: 17 (6 - 28); 0.2% (0.1% - 0.3%)
St Louis: 2 (1 - 4); 0.1% (0% - 0.2%)
- Boston: 6 (2 - 9); 0.2% (0.1 % - 0.4%)
- Cleveland: 12 (4 - 20); 0.2% (0.1% - 0.3%)
- Houston: 11 (4 - 18); 0.1% (0% - 0.2%)
- New York: 43 (15 - 72); 0.1% (0% - 0.2%)
Sacramento: 12 (4 - 21); 0.3% (0.1% - 0.5%)
-Washington: 7 (2 - 12); 0.3% (0.1% - 0.4%)
* The 8-hr average standards shown in these figures, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of
m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 ~ 0.084 ppm, 4th daily
maximum 8-hr average. The figure also compares the current standard to a recent year of air quality. The
incidence (and 95% credible interval) and percent of total incidence (and 95% credible interval) when O3
concentrations just meet the current standard are shown for each location in the box below each figure.
Abt Associates Inc.
4-72
December 2006
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Figure 4-16b. Based on 2002 Air Quality
ra
•c
c
ra
53
o
2
n—
01
O)
c
ra
^
O
+••
C
-120%
2002 air 0.084/4 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4
quality
Alternative Standard
-Atlanta: 14 (5 - 23); 0.3% (0.1 % - 0.5%)
Chicago: 55 (18 - 91); 0.3% (0.1% - 0.4%)
- Detroit: 24 (8 - 39); 0.3% (0.1 % - 0.4%)
- Los Angeles: 52 (17 - 86); 0.2% (0.1% - 0.3%)
- Philadelphia: 30 (10 - 50); 0.4% (0.1% - 0.6%)
St Louis: 5 (2 - 8); 0.2% (0.1% - 0.4%)
-Boston: 9 (3- 15); 0.3% (0.1% - 0.6%)
-Cleveland: 31 (10 - 52); 0.4% (0.1% - 0.7%)
- Houston: 9 (3 - 15); 0.1 % (0% - 0.2%)
- New York: 84 (28 - 139); 0.3% (0.1 % - 0.4%)
Sacramento: 18 (6 - 30); 0.4% (0.1% - 0.7%)
-Washington: 14 (5 - 23); 0.5% (0.2% - 0.8%)
Abt Associates Inc.
4-73
December 2006
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Figure 4-17. Estimated Percent Reductions From the Current Standard to Alternative Standards in
O3-Related Cardiorespiratory Mortality, Separately for Each Location (Based on Huang et al., 2004 •
-19 U.S. Cities)*
Figure 4-17a. Based on 2004 Air Quality
ra
•c
c
ra
S3
o
8
01
O)
c
ra
.n
O
-100%
-120%
2004 air 0.084/4 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4
quality
Alternative Standard
-Atlanta: 6 (2 -10); 0.6% (0.2% - 1%)
Cleveland: 10 (4 - 15); 0.5% (0.2% - 0.8%)
- Houston: 8 (3 - 13); 0.4% (0.1% - 0.6%)
- New York: 39 (15 - 63); 0.4% (0.2% - 0.7%)
• Chicago: 26 (10 - 41); 0.5% (0.2% - 0.8%)
• Detroit: 10 (4 - 16); 0.4% (0.2% - 0.7%)
• Los Angeles: 57 (22 - 93); 0.8% (0.3% - 1.3%)
• Philadelphia: 12(5-19); 0.7% (0.3% - 1.1%)
* The 8-hr average standards shown in these figures, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of
m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 ~ 0.084 ppm, 4th daily
maximum 8-hr average. The figure also compares the current standard to a recent year of air quality. The
incidence (and 95% credible interval) and percent of total incidence (and 95% credible interval) when O3
concentrations just meet the current standard are shown for each location in the box below each figure.
Abt Associates Inc.
4-74
December 2006
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Figure 4-17b. Based on 2002 Air Quality
ra
S3
3
o
E
2
01
O)
c
ra
^
O
+••
5
o
£
-120% J
2002 air 0.084/4 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4
quality
Alternative Standard
-Atlanta: 9 (4 -15); 0.9% (0.4% - 1.5%)
Cleveland: 25 (10 - 40); 1.3% (0.5% - 2.1%)
• Houston: 6 (2 - 10); 0.3% (0.1% - 0.5%)
- New York: 75 (29 - 120); 0.8% (0.3% - 1.4%)
• Chicago: 42 (16 - 68); 0.8% (0.3% - 1.3%)
- Detroit: 19 (7 - 31); 0.8% (0.3% - 1.3%)
• Los Angeles: 45 (17 - 72); 0.6% (0.2% - 1 %)
• Philadelphia: 22 (8 - 35); 1.2% (0.5% -1.9%)
Abt Associates Inc.
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December 2006
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Table 4-16. Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative
8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations*
Location
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell etal. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Ito (2003)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell etal. -95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell etal. -95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3
Standards**
0.084/4***
5
(-20 - 29)
9
(3-15)
6
(2-9)
33
(11-55)
314
(99 - 525)
118
(37- 199)
19
(-1 2 - 49)
12
(4 - 20)
24
(-8 - 56)
12
(4 - 20)
107
(-1 7 - 229)
58
(18-98)
29
(-27 - 85)
22
(1 - 42)
11
(4-18)
70
(6 - 1 32)
58
(18-98)
31
(-74 - 1 35)
67
(22-111)
43
(15-72)
0.084/3
5
(-20 - 29)
9
(3-15)
5
(2-9)
31
(1 0 - 52)
300
(95 - 501 )
113
(35 - 1 90)
18
(-11 -46)
11
(4-19)
22
(-7-51)
11
(4-19)
102
(-17-218)
55
(1 7 - 93)
27
(-25 - 78)
20
(1 - 39)
10
(3-16)
66
(6-126)
55
(1 7 - 93)
30
(-72-131)
64
(22 - 1 07)
38
(1 3 - 63)
0.080/4
4
(-1 8 - 26)
8
(3-14)
5
(2-9)
29
(10-48)
288
(91 - 482)
108
(34- 182)
17
(-1 1 - 44)
11
(4-18)
21
(-7 - 49)
11
(4-18)
99
(-16-212)
54
(17-91)
26
(-24 - 75)
19
(1 - 37)
10
(3-16)
65
(6 - 1 23)
54
(17-91)
27
(-66 - 1 20)
59
(20 - 98)
39
(13-65)
0.074/5
4
(-16-23)
7
(2-12)
5
(2-8)
26
(9 - 43)
268
(85 - 448)
101
(31 -170)
15
(-9 - 39)
9
(3-16)
21
(-7 - 48)
11
(4-18)
97
(-16-209)
53
(1 7 - 89)
25
(-23 - 73)
17
(1 - 32)
8
(3-13)
59
(5-112)
49
(1 5 - 83)
22
(-52 - 95)
47
(1 6 - 78)
35
(1 2 - 58)
0.074/4
4
(-1 5 - 22)
7
(2-12)
4
(1-7)
23
(8 - 39)
249
(79 - 41 7)
93
(29- 157)
14
(-9 - 37)
9
(3-15)
17
(-6 - 40)
9
(3-15)
87
(-14-186)
47
(15-79)
21
(-20 - 62)
16
(1 - 30)
8
(3-13)
57
(5 - 1 09)
48
(15-81)
20
(-49 - 90)
44
(15-74)
33
(1 1 - 55)
0.074/3
4
(-15-22)
7
(2-12)
4
(1-7)
22
(7 - 36)
238
(75 - 399)
89
(28 -151)
14
(-9 - 36)
9
(3-14)
16
(-5 - 38)
8
(3-14)
83
(-13-1 78)
45
(1 4 - 76)
20
(-18-57)
15
(1 - 28)
7
(2-12)
55
(5-104)
46
(14-77)
19
(-46 - 83)
41
(1 4 - 68)
29
(1 0 - 48)
0.070/4
3
(-13-19)
6
(2-10)
4
(1-7)
19
(6 - 32)
222
(70 - 372)
83
(26- 140)
13
(-8 - 33)
8
(3-13)
15
(-5 - 35)
8
(3-13)
78
(-13- 168)
42
(13-72)
18
(-1 7 - 53)
13
(1 - 25)
6
(2-11)
52
(5 - 99)
43
(14-73)
16
(-38 - 69)
34
(1 1 - 56)
29
(10-49)
0.064/4
3
(-11-16)
5
(2-8)
3
(1-6)
14
(5 - 24)
183
(58 - 307)
69
(21 -116)
10
(-6 - 26)
6
(2-11)
11
(-4 - 27)
6
(2-10)
66
(-11-1 42)
36
(11-61)
14
(-13-41)
8
(0-15)
4
(1 -6)
42
(4 - 80)
35
(1 1 - 59)
9
(-22-41)
20
(7 - 33)
24
(8 - 39)
Abt Associates Inc.
4-76
December 2006
-------
Location
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St Louis
Washington
Study
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Moolgavkaret al. (1995)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell etal. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell etal. -95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Lag
distributed lag
1-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3
Standards**
0.084/4***
17
(6 - 28)
59
(37 - 81 )
8
(-25 - 42)
12
(4-21)
3
(-4 - 9)
2
(1 -4)
7
(2-12)
0.084/3
15
(5 - 25)
54
(34 - 75)
8
(-25-41)
12
(4 - 20)
2
(-4 - 8)
2
(1-3)
6
(2-10)
0.080/4
15
(5 - 25)
54
(34 - 74)
8
(-23 - 39)
11
(4-19)
2
(-4 - 8)
2
(1-3)
6
(2-11)
0.074/5
13
(4 - 22)
47
(30 - 65)
7
(-21 - 35)
10
(4-17)
2
(-3 - 6)
2
(1-3)
6
(2-9)
0.074/4
13
(4-21)
46
(29 - 63)
7
(-21 - 34)
10
(3-17)
2
(-3 - 6)
1
(0-2)
6
(2-9)
0.074/3
12
(4 - 20)
42
(27 - 58)
7
(-20 - 34)
10
(3-17)
1
(-2 - 5)
1
(0-2)
5
(2-8)
0.070/4
11
(4-19)
41
(26 - 56)
6
(-19-31)
9
(3-15)
1
(-2 - 5)
1
(0-2)
5
(2-8)
0.064/4
9
(3-15)
33
(21 - 46)
5
(-16-26)
8
(3-13)
1
(-1 - 3)
1
(0-1)
4
(1-7)
*AII results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average.
These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
4-77
December 2006
-------
Table 4-17. Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the
Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based Adjusting on 2004 O3 Concentrations*
Location
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell etal. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Ito (2003)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell etal. -95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell etal. -95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just
Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
0.3
(-1.3-1.9)
0.6
(0.2-1)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .4)
0.6
(0.2-1)
5.8
(1 .9 - 9.8)
2.2
(0.7 - 3.7)
1.3
(-0.8 - 3.5)
0.9
(0.3 - 1 .4)
1.2
(-0.4 - 2.7)
0.6
(0.2-1)
5.2
(-0.8-11.1)
2.8
(0.9 - 4.7)
1.4
(-1.3-4.1)
0.6
(0-1.2)
0.3
(0.1 - 0.5)
2
(0.2 - 3.9)
1.7
(0.5 - 2.9)
0.3
(-0.8 - 1 .4)
0.7
(0.2- 1.2)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.8)
0.084/3
0.3
(-1.3- 1.9)
0.6
(0.2-1)
0.7
(0.2 - 1 .2)
0.6
(0.2-1)
5.6
(1.8-9.3)
2.1
(0.7-3.5)
1.3
(-0.8 - 3.3)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .3)
1.1
(-0.3 - 2.5)
0.6
(0.2-0.9)
4.9
(-0.8- 10.6)
2.7
(0.8 - 4.5)
1.3
(-1 .2 - 3.8)
0.6
(0-1.1)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
1.9
(0.2-3.7)
1.6
(0.5-2.7)
0.3
(-0.8 - 1 .4)
0.7
(0.2-1.1)
0.4
(0.1 -0.7)
0.080/4
0.3
(-1.2-1.8)
0.6
(0.2 - 0.9)
0.7
(0.2-1.2)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.9)
5.4
(1 .7 - 9)
2
(0.6 - 3.4)
1.2
(-0.8 - 3.2)
0.8
(0.3- 1.3)
1
(-0.3 - 2.4)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.9)
4.8
(-0.8-10.3)
2.6
(0.8 - 4.4)
1.3
(-1.2-3.6)
0.6
(0-1.1)
0.3
(0.1 - 0.5)
1.9
(0.2 - 3.6)
1.6
(0.5 - 2.7)
0.3
(-0.7 - 1 .3)
0.6
(0.2-1)
0.4
(0.1 - 0.7)
0.074/5
0.3
(-1.1-1.6)
0.5
(0.2-0.8)
0.7
(0.2 - 1 .2)
0.5
(0.2-0.8)
5
(1.6-8.3)
1.9
(0.6-3.2)
1.1
(-0.7 - 2.8)
0.7
(0.2-1.1)
1
(-0.3 - 2.3)
0.5
(0.2-0.9)
4.7
(-0.8- 10.1)
2.6
(0.8 - 4.3)
1.2
(-1.1 -3.6)
0.5
(0 - 0.9)
0.2
(0.1 -0.4)
1.7
(0.2-3.3)
1.4
(0.5 - 2.4)
0.2
(-0.5-1)
0.5
(0.2-0.8)
0.4
(0.1 -0.6)
0.074/4
0.2
(-1 - 1 .5)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.8)
0.6
(0.2- 1.1)
0.4
(0.1 - 0.7)
4.6
(1.5-7.7)
1.7
(0.5 - 2.9)
1
(-0.6 - 2.7)
0.6
(0.2- 1.1)
0.8
(-0.3 - 2)
0.4
(0.1 - 0.7)
4.2
(-0.7 - 9)
2.3
(0.7 - 3.8)
1
(-1 - 3)
0.5
(0 - 0.9)
0.2
(0.1 - 0.4)
1.7
(0.2 - 3.2)
1.4
(0.4 - 2.4)
0.2
(-0.5 - 0.9)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.8)
0.4
(0.1 - 0.6)
0.074/3
0.2
(-1 -1.5)
0.5
(0.2-0.8)
0.6
(0.2-1)
0.4
(0.1 -0.7)
4.4
(1.4-7.4)
1.7
(0.5-2.8)
1
(-0.6 - 2.6)
0.6
(0.2-1)
0.8
(-0.3 - 1 .8)
0.4
(0.1 -0.7)
4
(-0.7 - 8.6)
2.2
(0.7-3.7)
1
(-0.9 - 2.8)
0.4
(0 - 0.8)
0.2
(0.1 -0.3)
1.6
(0.1 -3.1)
1.3
(0.4-2.3)
0.2
(-0.5 - 0.9)
0.4
(0.1 -0.7)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
0.070/4
0.2
(-0.9 - 1 .3)
0.4
(0.1 - 0.7)
0.6
(0.2-1)
0.4
(0.1 - 0.6)
4.1
(1.3-6.9)
1.6
(0.5 - 2.6)
0.9
(-0.6 - 2.4)
0.6
(0.2-1)
0.7
(-0.2 - 1 .7)
0.4
(0.1 - 0.6)
3.8
(-0.6 - 8.2)
2.1
(0.6 - 3.5)
0.9
(-0.8 - 2.6)
0.4
(0 - 0.7)
0.2
(0.1 - 0.3)
1.5
(0.1 - 2.9)
1.3
(0.4-2.1)
0.2
(-0.4 - 0.7)
0.4
(0.1 - 0.6)
0.3
(0.1 - 0.5)
0.064/4
0.2
(-0.7-1.1)
0.3
(0.1 -0.6)
0.5
(0.2-0.8)
0.3
(0.1 -0.4)
3.4
(1.1 -5.7)
1.3
(0.4-2.2)
0.7
(-0.5 - 1 .9)
0.5
(0.2-0.8)
0.6
(-0.2 - 1 .3)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
3.2
(-0.5 - 6.9)
1.7
(0.5-2.9)
0.7
(-0.6 - 2)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
1.2
(0.1 -2.3)
1
(0.3 - 1 .7)
0.1
(-0.2 - 0.4)
0.2
(0.1 -0.4)
0.3
(0.1 -0.4)
Abt Associates Inc.
4-78
December 2006
-------
Location
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St Louis
Washington
Study
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Moolgavkaret al. (1995)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell etal. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell etal. -95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Lag
distributed lag
1-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just
Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
1.1
(0.4-1.8)
3.9
(2.5 - 5.3)
0.7
(-2.1 -3.4)
1
(0.3-1.7)
0.7
(-1.2-2.7)
0.7
(0.2- 1.1)
1.2
(0.4-2.1)
0.084/3
1
(0.3 - 1 .7)
3.6
(2.3 - 4.9)
0.7
(-2 - 3.3)
1
(0.3 - 1 .6)
0.7
(-1.1-2.4)
0.6
(0.2-1)
1
(0.3 - 1 .7)
0.080/4
1
(0.3-1.7)
3.5
(2.2 - 4.9)
0.6
(-1.9-3.1)
0.9
(0.3-1.6)
0.6
(-1 - 2.3)
0.6
(0.2 - 0.9)
1.1
(0.4- 1.9)
0.074/5
0.9
(0.3 - 1 .5)
3.1
(2 - 4.3)
0.6
(-1 .8 - 2.9)
0.9
(0.3 - 1 .4)
0.5
(-0.8 - 1 .8)
0.4
(0.2-0.7)
1
(0.3 - 1 .6)
0.074/4
0.8
(0.3-1.4)
3
(1 .9 - 4.2)
0.6
(-1.7-2.8)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .4)
0.5
(-0.8 - 1 .7)
0.4
(0.1 - 0.7)
1
(0.3- 1.6)
0.074/3
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .3)
2.8
(1.8-3.8)
0.5
(-1 .7 - 2.7)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .4)
0.4
(-0.7 - 1 .5)
0.4
(0.1 -0.6)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .4)
0.070/4
0.8
(0.3-1.3)
2.7
(1 .7 - 3.7)
0.5
(-1.5-2.5)
0.8
(0.3-1.3)
0.4
(-0.6 - 1 .3)
0.3
(0.1 - 0.5)
0.9
(0.3- 1.5)
0.064/4
0.6
(0.2-1)
2.2
(1.4-3)
0.4
(-1 .3 - 2.2)
0.6
(0.2-1.1)
0.2
(-0.4 - 0.9)
0.2
(0.1 -0.4)
0.7
(0.2 - 1 .2)
*AII results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average.
These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
4-79
December 2006
-------
Table 4-18. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and
Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations*
Location
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)
Ito (2003)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative
O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
0.1%
(-0.4% - 0.6%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
1 .5%
(0.5% - 2.5%)
0.6%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.3%
(-0.2% - 0.7%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.3%
(-0.1% -0.6%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
1.1%
(-0.2% - 2.4%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1%)
0.3%
(-0.3% - 0.9%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.8%
(0.1% -1.5%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1.1%)
0.1%
(-0.3% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.084/3
0.1%
(-0.4% - 0.6%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
1 .4%
(0.5% - 2.4%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.6%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.5%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
1.1%
(-0.2% - 2.3%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1%)
0.3%
(-0.3% - 0.8%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.7%
(0.1% -1.4%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1%)
0.1%
(-0.3% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.080/4
0.1%
(-0.4% - 0.6%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
1 .4%
(0.4% - 2.3%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.6%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.5%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
1.1%
(-0.2% - 2.3%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1%)
0.3%
(-0.3% - 0.8%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.7%
(0.1% -1.4%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1%)
0.1%
(-0.2% - 0.4%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.074/5
0.1%
(-0.3% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
1 .3%
(0.4% -2.1%)
0.5%
(0.1% -0.8%)
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.5%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.5%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
1%
(-0.2% - 2.2%)
0.6%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.3%
(-0.2% - 0.8%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.6%
(0.1% -1.2%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.1%
(-0.2% - 0.3%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.074/4
0.1%
(-0.3% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
1 .2%
(0.4% - 2%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.5%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.9%
(-0.1% -2%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.2%
(-0.2% - 0.7%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.6%
(0.1% -1.2%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.1%
(-0.2% - 0.3%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.074/3
0.1%
(-0.3% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
1.1%
(0.4% - 1 .9%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.5%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.4%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.9%
(-0.1%- 1.9%)
0.5%
(0.1% -0.8%)
0.2%
(-0.2% - 0.6%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.6%
(0.1% -1.1%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.1%
(-0.2% - 0.3%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.070/4
0.1%
(-0.3% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
1.1%
(0.3% - 1 .8%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.4%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.8%
(-0.1%- 1.8%)
0.5%
(0.1% -0.8%)
0.2%
(-0.2% - 0.6%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.6%
(0.1% -1.1%)
0.5%
(0.1% -0.8%)
0.1%
(-0.1% -0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.064/4
0.1%
(-0.2% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.9%
(0.3% - 1 .5%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.1%
(-0.1% -0.4%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.7%
(-0.1%- 1.5%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.1%
(-0.1% -0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0.5%
(0% - 0.9%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0%
(-0.1% -0.2%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
Abt Associates Inc.
December 2006
-------
Location
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St Louis
Washington
Study
Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)
Moolgavkar et al. (1995)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)
Lag
distributed lag
1 -day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative
O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.7%
(0.5% - 1 %)
0.2%
(-0.6% - 1 %)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.1%
(-0.2% - 0.5%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.084/3
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.7%
(0.4% - 0.9%)
0.2%
(-0.6% - 1 %)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.1%
(-0.2% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.080/4
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.7%
(0.4% - 0.9%)
0.2%
(-0.6% - 0.9%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.1%
(-0.2% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.074/5
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.6%
(0.4% - 0.8%)
0.2%
(-0.5% - 0.8%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.1%
(-0.1% -0.3%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.074/4
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.6%
(0.4% - 0.8%)
0.2%
(-0.5% - 0.8%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.1%
(-0.1% -0.3%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.074/3
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.5%
(0.3% - 0.7%)
0.2%
(-0.5% - 0.8%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.1%
(-0.1% -0.3%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.070/4
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.5%
(0.3% - 0.7%)
0.1%
(-0.5% - 0.7%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.1%
(-0.1% -0.2%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.064/4
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.4%
(0.3% - 0.6%)
0.1%
(-0.4% - 0.6%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0%
(-0.1% -0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
"All results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily
maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
4-81
December 2006
-------
Table 4-19. Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative
8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations*
Location
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell etal. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Ito (2003)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell etal. -95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell etal. -95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3
Standards**
0.084/4***
7
(-30 - 43)
14
(5 - 23)
9
(3-15)
55
(18-91)
427
(1 36 - 71 2)
161
(51 -271)
49
(-31 -128)
31
(10-52)
46
(-15-1 06)
24
(8 - 39)
158
(-26 - 336)
86
(27-144)
56
(-52 - 1 62)
18
(1 - 34)
9
(3-15)
63
(6-119)
53
(16-88)
24
(-58 - 1 05)
52
(17-86)
84
(28- 139)
0.084/3
7
(-30 - 43)
14
(5 - 23)
8
(3-14)
52
(1 8 - 87)
412
(131 -687)
156
(49 - 261 )
47
(-30- 123)
30
(1 0 - 50)
43
(-14- 100)
22
(7 - 37)
150
(-24 - 320)
82
(26 - 1 37)
53
(-49-151)
16
(1 - 32)
8
(3-13)
59
(5-113)
50
(1 6 - 84)
23
(-55-100)
49
(1 7 - 82)
76
(25 - 1 26)
0.080/4
6
(-28 - 40)
13
(4-21)
8
(3-14)
50
(17-84)
401
(1 27 - 669)
151
(47 - 254)
46
(-29 - 1 20)
29
(10-49)
43
(-1 4 - 98)
22
(7 - 36)
148
(-24-316)
81
(25-136)
52
(-48 - 1 50)
16
(1-31)
8
(3-13)
58
(5-110)
49
(15-82)
21
(-50-91)
45
(15-74)
78
(26- 130)
0.074/5
6
(-26 - 38)
12
(4 - 20)
8
(3-13)
47
(1 6 - 79)
381
(121 -636)
144
(45 - 242)
43
(-27 - 1 1 2)
27
(9 - 45)
42
(-14-97)
22
(7 - 36)
147
(-24 - 31 3)
80
(25 - 1 34)
51
(-48-147)
13
(1 - 26)
7
(2-11)
53
(5-100)
44
(1 4 - 74)
15
(-36 - 66)
33
(1 1 - 54)
73
(24 -121)
0.074/4
6
(-24 - 35)
11
(4-19)
7
(3-12)
44
(15-74)
361
(115-603)
136
(43 - 229)
42
(-26-109)
27
(9 - 44)
38
(-1 2 - 87)
19
(6 - 32)
134
(-22 - 287)
73
(23-123)
46
(-42 - 1 32)
13
(1 - 25)
6
(2-10)
51
(5 - 97)
43
(13-72)
15
(-35 - 64)
32
(11-53)
70
(23 - 1 1 6)
0.074/3
6
(-24 - 35)
11
(4-19)
7
(2-12)
43
(14-71)
350
(1 1 1 - 585)
132
(41 - 222)
40
(-25 - 1 05)
26
(9 - 43)
35
(-11 -81)
18
(6 - 30)
128
(-21 - 274)
70
(22-117)
43
(-40-124)
12
(1 - 23)
6
(2-10)
48
(4 - 92)
40
(1 3 - 68)
13
(-32 - 59)
29
(1 0 - 48)
64
(21 -106)
0.070/4
5
(-22 - 32)
10
(3-17)
7
(2-12)
40
(13-67)
335
(106-559)
126
(39 - 21 2)
39
(-25- 102)
25
(8-41)
34
(-11 -79)
18
(6 - 29)
125
(-20 - 268)
68
(21 -115)
42
(-39 - 1 20)
11
(1-21)
5
(2-9)
46
(4 - 87)
38
(12-64)
11
(-26 - 48)
24
(8 - 39)
65
(22- 108)
0.064/4
4
(-19-27)
9
(3-14)
6
(2-10)
34
(1 1 - 57)
294
(93 - 493)
111
(35 - 1 87)
35
(-22-91)
22
(7 - 37)
29
(-9 - 67)
15
(5 - 25)
111
(-1 8 - 239)
61
(19-102)
36
(-33-103)
7
(0-13)
3
(1 -5)
36
(3 - 69)
30
(9-51)
7
(-1 6 - 29)
14
(5 - 23)
57
(1 9 - 95)
Abt Associates Inc.
4-82
December 2006
-------
Location
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St Louis
Washington
Study
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Moolgavkaret al. (1995)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell etal. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell etal. -95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Lag
distributed lag
1-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3
Standards**
0.084/4***
30
(10-50)
107
(67-146)
12
(-37 - 60)
18
(6 - 30)
5
(-9 - 20)
5
(2-8)
14
(5 - 23)
0.084/3
28
(1 0 - 47)
101
(63 - 1 38)
12
(-36 - 58)
17
(6 - 29)
5
(-9-19)
5
(2-8)
12
(4 - 20)
0.080/4
28
(9 - 47)
101
(63-137)
11
(-35 - 57)
17
(6 - 28)
5
(-8-18)
4
(1-7)
13
(4-21)
0.074/5
26
(9 - 43)
93
(58 - 1 27)
11
(-32 - 53)
16
(5 - 26)
4
(-8-16)
4
(1-7)
12
(4-19)
0.074/4
26
(9 - 42)
91
(57-124)
10
(-32 - 52)
15
(5 - 26)
4
(-7-15)
4
(1-6)
12
(4-19)
0.074/3
24
(8 - 40)
86
(54-117)
10
(-31 - 50)
15
(5 - 25)
4
(-7-15)
4
(1-6)
10
(3-17)
0.070/4
24
(8 - 40)
85
(53 - 1 1 6)
10
(-30 - 49)
14
(5 - 24)
4
(-6-14)
3
(1-6)
11
(4-18)
0.064/4
21
(7 - 35)
75
(47 - 1 03)
9
(-27 - 44)
13
(4 - 22)
3
(-5-12)
3
(1-5)
10
(3-16)
*AII results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average.
These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
4-83
December 2006
-------
Table 4-20. Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the
Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations*
Location
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell etal. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Ito (2003)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell etal. -95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell etal. -95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just
Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
0.5
(-2 - 2.9)
0.9
(0.3- 1.6)
1.3
(0.4-2.1)
1
(0.3-1.7)
7.9
(2.5- 13.2)
3
(0.9 - 5)
3.5
(-2.2 - 9.2)
2.2
(0.8 - 3.7)
2.2
(-0.7 - 5.2)
1.1
(0.4- 1.9)
7.7
(-1.3-16.3)
4.2
(1 .3 - 7)
2.7
(-2.5 - 7.8)
0.5
(0-1)
0.3
(0.1 - 0.4)
1.8
(0.2 - 3.5)
1.5
(0.5 - 2.6)
0.3
(-0.6-1.1)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.9)
0.9
(0.3- 1.6)
0.084/3
0.5
(-2 - 2.9)
0.9
(0.3 - 1 .5)
1.2
(0.4 - 2)
1
(0.3 - 1 .6)
7.7
(2.4-12.8)
2.9
(0.9 - 4.9)
3.4
(-2.1 - 8.8)
2.2
(0.7-3.6)
2.1
(-0.7 - 4.8)
1.1
(0.4 - 1 .8)
7.3
(-1.2- 15.5)
4
(1.2-6.6)
2.6
(-2.4 - 7.4)
0.5
(0 - 0.9)
0.2
(0.1 -0.4)
1.7
(0.2-3.3)
1.5
(0.5-2.5)
0.2
(-0.6- 1.1)
0.5
(0.2-0.9)
0.9
(0.3 - 1 .4)
0.080/4
0.4
(-1.9-2.7)
0.9
(0.3 - 1 .4)
1.2
(0.4 - 2)
0.9
(0.3-1.6)
7.5
(2.4- 12.4)
2.8
(0.9 - 4.7)
3.3
(-2.1 -8.6)
2.1
(0.7 - 3.5)
2.1
(-0.7 - 4.8)
1.1
(0.4-1.8)
7.2
(-1.2-15.4)
3.9
(1.2-6.6)
2.5
(-2.3 - 7.3)
0.5
(0 - 0.9)
0.2
(0.1 - 0.4)
1.7
(0.2 - 3.2)
1.4
(0.4 - 2.4)
0.2
(-0.5-1)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.8)
0.9
(0.3- 1.5)
0.074/5
0.4
(-1 .8 - 2.5)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .3)
1.2
(0.4 - 1 .9)
0.9
(0.3 - 1 .5)
7.1
(2.3-11.8)
2.7
(0.8 - 4.5)
3.1
(-1 .9 - 8)
2
(0.7-3.3)
2
(-0.7 - 4.7)
1
(0.3 - 1 .7)
7.1
(-1.2- 15.2)
3.9
(1.2-6.5)
2.5
(-2.3 - 7.2)
0.4
(0 - 0.8)
0.2
(0.1 -0.3)
1.5
(0.1 -2.9)
1.3
(0.4-2.2)
0.2
(-0.4 - 0.7)
0.3
(0.1 -0.6)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .4)
0.074/4
0.4
(-1.6-2.4)
0.8
(0.3- 1.3)
1.1
(0.4-1.8)
0.8
(0.3-1.4)
6.7
(2.1 - 11.2)
2.5
(0.8 - 4.3)
3
(-1.9-7.8)
1.9
(0.6 - 3.2)
1.8
(-0.6 - 4.2)
0.9
(0.3-1.5)
6.5
(-1.1 -13.9)
3.5
(1.1-6)
2.2
(-2.1 -6.4)
0.4
(0 - 0.7)
0.2
(0.1 - 0.3)
1.5
(0.1 - 2.9)
1.3
(0.4-2.1)
0.2
(-0.4 - 0.7)
0.3
(0.1 - 0.6)
0.8
(0.3- 1.3)
0.074/3
0.4
(-1 .7 - 2.4)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .3)
1
(0.3 - 1 .7)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .3)
6.5
(2.1 -10.9)
2.5
(0.8-4.1)
2.9
(-1 .8 - 7.5)
1.8
(0.6-3.1)
1.7
(-0.6 - 3.9)
0.9
(0.3 - 1 .5)
6.2
(-1 - 13.3)
3.4
(1.1-5.7)
2.1
(-1 .9 - 6)
0.3
(0 - 0.7)
0.2
(0.1 -0.3)
1.4
(0.1 -2.7)
1.2
(0.4 - 2)
0.1
(-0.3 - 0.6)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
0.7
(0.2 - 1 .2)
0.070/4
0.3
(-1.5-2.2)
0.7
(0.2- 1.1)
1
(0.3-1.7)
0.7
(0.3-1.2)
6.2
(2- 10.4)
2.3
(0.7 - 3.9)
2.8
(-1.8-7.3)
1.8
(0.6 - 3)
1.7
(-0.5 - 3.8)
0.9
(0.3-1.4)
6.1
(-1 -13)
3.3
(1 - 5.6)
2
(-1.9-5.8)
0.3
(0 - 0.6)
0.2
(0.1 - 0.3)
1.3
(0.1 - 2.6)
1.1
(0.4-1.9)
0.1
(-0.3 - 0.5)
0.2
(0.1 - 0.4)
0.7
(0.2- 1.2)
0.064/4
0.3
(-1.3- 1.8)
0.6
(0.2-1)
0.9
(0.3 - 1 .5)
0.6
(0.2-1.1)
5.5
(1.7-9.2)
2.1
(0.6-3.5)
2.5
(-1 .6 - 6.5)
1.6
(0.5-2.7)
1.4
(-0.5 - 3.3)
0.7
(0.2 - 1 .2)
5.4
(-0.9 -11.6)
2.9
(0.9 - 4.9)
1.7
(-1 .6 - 5)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
1.1
(0.1-2)
0.9
(0.3 - 1 .5)
0.1
(-0.2 - 0.3)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.6
(0.2-1.1)
Abt Associates Inc.
4-84
December 2006
-------
Location
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St Louis
Washington
Study
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Moolgavkaret al. (1995)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell etal. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell etal. -95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Lag
distributed lag
1-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just
Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
2
(0.7 - 3.3)
7
(4.4 - 9.6)
1
(-3 - 4.9)
1.5
(0.5 - 2.4)
1.6
(-2.6 - 5.6)
1.4
(0.5 - 2.3)
2.4
(0.8 - 3.9)
0.084/3
1.9
(0.6-3.1)
6.6
(4.2-9.1)
1
(-2.9 - 4.8)
1.4
(0.5 - 2.4)
1.5
(-2.5 - 5.4)
1.3
(0.4-2.2)
2.1
(0.7-3.5)
0.080/4
1.9
(0.6-3.1)
6.6
(4.2-9.1)
0.9
(-2.8 - 4.6)
1.4
(0.5 - 2.3)
1.4
(-2.4 - 5.2)
1.3
(0.4-2.1)
2.2
(0.8 - 3.7)
0.074/5
1.7
(0.6-2.9)
6.1
(3.9 - 8.4)
0.9
(-2.6 - 4.3)
1.3
(0.4-2.1)
1.3
(-2.2 - 4.7)
1.2
(0.4 - 1 .9)
2
(0.7 - 3.4)
0.074/4
1.7
(0.6 - 2.8)
6
(3.8 - 8.2)
0.9
(-2.6 - 4.2)
1.3
(0.4-2.1)
1.2
(-2.1-4.5)
1.1
(0.4-1.8)
2
(0.7 - 3.4)
0.074/3
1.6
(0.5-2.6)
5.7
(3.6-7.7)
0.8
(-2.5-4.1)
1.2
(0.4 - 2)
1.2
(-2 - 4.3)
1.1
(0.4 - 1 .8)
1.8
(0.6 - 3)
0.070/4
1.6
(0.5 - 2.6)
5.6
(3.5 - 7.6)
0.8
(-2.4 - 4)
1.2
(0.4 - 2)
1.1
(-1.8-4)
1
(0.3-1.6)
1.9
(0.6 - 3.2)
0.064/4
1.4
(0.5-2.3)
5
(3.1 -6.8)
0.7
(-2.2 - 3.6)
1.1
(0.4 - 1 .8)
0.9
(-1 .5 - 3.3)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .4)
1.7
(0.6-2.9)
*AII results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average.
These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
4-85
December 2006
-------
Table 4-21. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and
Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations*
Location
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)
Ito (2003)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative
O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
0.2%
(-0.7% - 0.9%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.4%)
2%
(0.6% - 3.4%)
0.8%
(0.2% - 1 .3%)
0.7%
(-0.4% - 1 .7%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.5%
(-0.2%- 1.1%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.4%)
1 .7%
(-0.3% - 3.6%)
0.9%
(0.3% - 1 .5%)
0.6%
(-0.6% - 1 .7%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.7%
(0.1% -1.3%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1%)
0.1%
(-0.2% - 0.4%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.084/3
0.1%
(-0.6% - 0.9%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
2%
(0.6% - 3.3%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .2%)
0.6%
(-0.4% - 1 .7%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.5%
(-0.1%- 1.1%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
1 .6%
(-0.3% - 3.4%)
0.9%
(0.3% - 1 .5%)
0.6%
(-0.5% - 1 .6%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.7%
(0.1% -1.2%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.1%
(-0.2% - 0.4%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.080/4
0.1%
(-0.6% - 0.9%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
1 .9%
(0.6% - 3.2%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .2%)
0.6%
(-0.4% - 1 .6%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.5%
(-0.1%- 1%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
1 .6%
(-0.3% - 3.4%)
0.9%
(0.3% - 1 .4%)
0.6%
(-0.5% - 1 .6%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.6%
(0.1% -1.2%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.1%
(-0.2% - 0.3%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.074/5
0.1%
(-0.6% - 0.8%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
1 .8%
(0.6% - 3%)
0.7%
(0.2%- 1.1%)
0.6%
(-0.4% - 1 .5%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.4%
(-0.1%- 1%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
1 .6%
(-0.3% - 3.3%)
0.8%
(0.3% - 1 .4%)
0.5%
(-0.5% - 1 .6%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.6%
(0.1% -1.1%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.1%
(-0.1% -0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.074/4
0.1%
(-0.5% - 0.8%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
1 .7%
(0.5% - 2.9%)
0.6%
(0.2%- 1.1%)
0.6%
(-0.4% - 1 .5%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.4%
(-0.1% -0.9%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
1 .4%
(-0.2% - 3%)
0.8%
(0.2% - 1 .3%)
0.5%
(-0.5% - 1 .4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.6%
(0.1% -1.1%)
0.5%
(0.1% -0.8%)
0.1%
(-0.1% -0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.074/3
0.1%
(-0.5% - 0.8%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
1 .7%
(0.5% - 2.8%)
0.6%
(0.2%- 1.1%)
0.5%
(-0.3% - 1 .4%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.4%
(-0.1% -0.9%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
1 .4%
(-0.2% - 2.9%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .2%)
0.5%
(-0.4% - 1 .3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.5%
(0%-1%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0%
(-0.1% -0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.070/4
0.1%
(-0.5% - 0.7%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
1 .6%
(0.5% - 2.7%)
0.6%
(0.2% - 1 %)
0.5%
(-0.3% - 1 .4%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.4%
(-0.1% -0.8%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
1 .3%
(-0.2% - 2.8%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .2%)
0.4%
(-0.4% - 1 .3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.5%
(0%-1%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0%
(-0.1% -0.2%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.064/4
0.1%
(-0.4% - 0.6%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
1 .4%
(0.4% - 2.3%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.5%
(-0.3% - 1 .2%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.3%
(-0.1% -0.7%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
1 .2%
(-0.2% - 2.5%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1.1%)
0.4%
(-0.3% -1.1%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.8%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0%
(-0.1% -0.1%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
Abt Associates Inc.
December 2006
-------
Location
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St Louis
Washington
Study
Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)
Moolgavkar et al. (1995)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)
Lag
distributed lag
1 -day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative
O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
1 .3%
(0.8% - 1 .8%)
0.3%
(-0.9% - 1 .4%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.3%
(-0.5% - 1 %)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.084/3
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
1 .3%
(0.8% - 1 .7%)
0.3%
(-0.8% - 1 .4%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.3%
(-0.4% - 0.9%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.080/4
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
1 .3%
(0.8% - 1 .7%)
0.3%
(-0.8% - 1 .3%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.2%
(-0.4% - 0.9%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.074/5
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
1 .2%
(0.7% - 1 .6%)
0.3%
(-0.8% - 1 .3%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.2%
(-0.4% - 0.8%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.074/4
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
1.1%
(0.7% - 1 .5%)
0.2%
(-0.8% - 1 .2%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.2%
(-0.4% - 0.8%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.074/3
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
1.1%
(0.7% - 1 .5%)
0.2%
(-0.7% - 1 .2%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.2%
(-0.3% - 0.7%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.070/4
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
1.1%
(0.7% - 1 .4%)
0.2%
(-0.7% - 1 .2%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.2%
(-0.3% - 0.7%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.064/4
0.3%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.9%
(0.6% - 1 .3%)
0.2%
(-0.6% - 1 %)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.2%
(-0.3% - 0.6%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
"All results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily
maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
4-87
December 2006
-------
Table 4-22. Estimated Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative
8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations*
Risk Assessment Location
Atlanta
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Study Location
Atlanta
19 U.S. Cities
Chicago
19 U.S. Cities
Cleveland
19 U.S. Cities
Detroit
19 U.S. Cities
Houston
19 U.S. Cities
Los Angeles
19 U.S. Cities
New York
19 U.S. Cities
Philadelphia
19 U.S. Cities
Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3
Standards**
0.084/4***
6
(-2-14)
6
(2-10)
16
(-14-45)
26
(10-41)
11
(0 - 23)
10
(4-15)
11
(-1 - 23)
10
(4-16)
8
(-1 - 16)
8
(3-13)
50
(0 - 98)
57
(22 - 93)
53
(17-89)
39
(15-63)
15
(1 - 28)
12
(5-19)
0.084/3
6
(-2-13)
6
(2-10)
15
(-13-42)
24
(9 - 39)
11
(0-21)
9
(3-15)
10
(-1-21)
9
(4-15)
7
(-1 - 15)
7
(3-12)
48
(0 - 95)
56
(21 - 90)
47
(15-78)
34
(13-55)
14
(1 - 26)
11
(4-18)
0.080/4
5
(-2-12)
6
(2-9)
14
(-12-39)
22
(9 - 36)
10
(0-21)
9
(3-14)
10
(-1 - 20)
9
(3-14)
7
(-1 - 15)
7
(3-11)
44
(0 - 88)
51
(19-83)
48
(15-80)
35
(13-57)
13
(1 - 26)
11
(4-18)
0.074/5
5
(-2-11)
5
(2-8)
12
(-1 1 - 35)
20
(8 - 32)
9
(0-18)
8
(3-12)
9
(-1 - 20)
9
(3-14)
6
(-1 - 12)
6
(2-10)
35
(0 - 69)
40
(15-65)
43
(14-71)
31
(12-50)
12
(1 - 23)
10
(4-16)
0.074/4
5
(-1 - 10)
5
(2-8)
11
(-10-31)
18
(7 - 29)
9
(0-17)
7
(3-12)
8
(-1 - 17)
7
(3-12)
6
(-1 - 12)
6
(2-9)
33
(0 - 65)
38
(15-62)
41
(13-68)
30
(11-48)
11
(1 - 22)
9
(4-15)
0.074/3
4
(-1 - 10)
5
(2-8)
10
(-9 - 29)
17
(6 - 27)
8
(0-17)
7
(3-11)
7
(-1 - 15)
7
(3-11)
5
(-1-11)
5
(2-8)
30
(0-61)
35
(13-57)
36
(1 1 - 60)
26
(10-42)
10
(0 - 20)
9
(3-14)
0.070/4
4
(-1 - 9)
4
(2-7)
9
(-8 - 26)
15
(6 - 24)
8
(0-15)
6
(2-10)
7
(-1 - 14)
6
(2-10)
5
(-1 - 10)
5
(2-8)
25
(0 - 50)
29
(11-47)
36
(1 1 - 60)
26
(10-42)
10
(0 - 20)
8
(3-13)
0.064/4
3
(-1 - 7)
3
(1-5)
7
(-6-19)
11
(4-18)
6
(0-12)
5
(2-8)
5
(-1-11)
5
(2-8)
3
(0-6)
3
(1-5)
15
(0 - 30)
17
(7 - 28)
29
(9 - 49)
21
(8 - 34)
8
(0-16)
7
(3-11)
"All results are for cardiovascular and respiratory mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. Results are based on single-pollutant single-city models or a single-pollutant
multi-city model estimated in Huang et al. (2004).
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily
maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
4-8
December 2006
-------
Table 4-23. Estimated Cardiorespiratory Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet
the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations*
Risk Assessment Location
Atlanta
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Study Location
Atlanta
19 U.S. Cities
Chicago
19 U.S. Cities
Cleveland
19 U.S. Cities
Detroit
19 U.S. Cities
Houston
19 U.S. Cities
Los Angeles
19 U.S. Cities
New York
19 U.S. Cities
Philadelphia
19 U.S. Cities
Cardiorespiratory Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the
Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
0.4
(-0.1 - 0.9)
0.4
(0.2 - 0.7)
0.3
(-0.3 - 0.8)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.8)
0.8
(0-1.6)
0.7
(0.3-1.1)
0.5
(-0.1-1.1)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.8)
0.2
(0 - 0.5)
0.2
(0.1 -0.4)
0.5
(0-1)
0.6
(0.2 - 1)
0.6
(0.2 - 1)
0.4
(0.2 - 0.7)
1
(0-1.9)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .3)
0.084/3
0.4
(-0.1 - 0.9)
0.4
(0.2 - 0.7)
0.3
(-0.2 - 0.8)
0.4
(0.2 - 0.7)
0.8
(0 - 1 .5)
0.6
(0.2 - 1)
0.5
(-0.1 - 1)
0.4
(0.2 - 0.7)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
0.2
(0.1 -0.3)
0.5
(0-1)
0.6
(0.2 - 0.9)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.9)
0.4
(0.1 -0.6)
0.9
(0 - 1 .7)
0.7
(0.3 - 1 .2)
0.080/4
0.4
(-0.1 - 0.8)
0.4
(0.1 -0.6)
0.3
(-0.2 - 0.7)
0.4
(0.2 - 0.7)
0.7
(0-1.5)
0.6
(0.2 - 1)
0.5
(-0.1 - 1)
0.4
(0.2 - 0.7)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
0.2
(0.1 -0.3)
0.5
(0 - 0.9)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.9)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.9)
0.4
(0.2 - 0.6)
0.9
(0-1.7)
0.7
(0.3 - 1 .2)
0.074/5
0.3
(-0.1 - 0.7)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
0.2
(-0.2 - 0.7)
0.4
(0.1 -0.6)
0.6
(0 - 1 .3)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.9)
0.5
(-0.1 - 1)
0.4
(0.2 - 0.7)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
0.2
(0.1 -0.3)
0.4
(0 - 0.7)
0.4
(0.2 - 0.7)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.8)
0.3
(0.1 -0.6)
0.8
(0 - 1 .5)
0.6
(0.2 - 1)
0.074/4
0.3
(-0.1 - 0.7)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
0.2
(-0.2 - 0.6)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
0.6
(0-1.2)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.8)
0.4
(0 - 0.8)
0.4
(0.1 -0.6)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
0.2
(0.1 -0.3)
0.3
(0 - 0.7)
0.4
(0.2 - 0.6)
0.5
(0.1 -0.8)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
0.8
(0-1.5)
0.6
(0.2 - 1)
0.074/3
0.3
(-0.1 - 0.7)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
0.2
(-0.2 - 0.5)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
0.6
(0 - 1 .2)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.8)
0.4
(0 - 0.8)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
0.2
(0 - 0.3)
0.2
(0.1 -0.2)
0.3
(0 - 0.6)
0.4
(0.1 -0.6)
0.4
(0.1 -0.7)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
0.7
(0 - 1 .3)
0.6
(0.2 - 0.9)
0.070/4
0.3
(-0.1 - 0.6)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
0.2
(-0.2 - 0.5)
0.3
(0.1 -0.4)
0.5
(0-1.1)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.7)
0.3
(0 - 0.7)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
0.1
(0 - 0.3)
0.1
(0.1 -0.2)
0.3
(0 - 0.5)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
0.4
(0.1 -0.7)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
0.7
(0-1.3)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.9)
0.064/4
0.2
(-0.1 - 0.5)
0.2
(0.1 -0.4)
0.1
(-0.1 - 0.4)
0.2
(0.1 -0.3)
0.4
(0 - 0.9)
0.4
(0.1 -0.6)
0.3
(0 - 0.5)
0.2
(0.1 -0.4)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.1
(0-0.1)
0.2
(0 - 0.3)
0.2
(0.1 -0.3)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
0.2
(0.1 -0.4)
0.5
(0-1.1)
0.4
(0.2 - 0.7)
*AII results are for cardiovascular and respiratory mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. Results are based on single-pollutant single-city models or a single-pollutant
multi-city model estimated in Huang et al. (2004).
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily
maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
4-8
December 2006
-------
Table 4-24. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet
the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based Adjusting on 2004 O3 Concentrations*
Risk Assessment Location
Atlanta
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Study Location
Atlanta
19 U.S. Cities
Chicago
19 U.S. Cities
Cleveland
19 U.S. Cities
Detroit
19 U.S. Cities
Houston
19 U.S. Cities
Los Angeles
19 U.S. Cities
New York
19 U.S. Cities
Philadelphia
19 U.S. Cities
Percent of Total Incidence of Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative
O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
0.6%
(-0.2% - 1 .4%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1%)
0.3%
(-0.3% - 0.9%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.6%
(0%- 1.2%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.5%
(-0.1% -0.9%)
0.4%
(0.2% - 0.7%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.8%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.7%
(0% - 1 .3%)
0.8%
(0.3% - 1 .3%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1%)
0.4%
(0.2% - 0.7%)
0.8%
(0% - 1 .5%)
0.7%
(0.3% -1.1%)
0.084/3
0.6%
(-0.2%- 1.4%)
0.6%
(0.2%- 1%)
0.3%
(-0.3% - 0.8%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.6%
(0%-1.1%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.9%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.6%
(0% - 1 .3%)
0.8%
(0.3%- 1.2%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.7%
(0% - 1 .4%)
0.6%
(0.2%- 1%)
0.080/4
0.6%
(-0.2% - 1 .3%)
0.6%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.3%
(-0.2% - 0.8%)
0.4%
(0.2% - 0.7%)
0.5%
(0%- 1.1%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.7%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.8%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.6%
(0%- 1.2%)
0.7%
(0.3% -1.1%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.4%
(0.2% - 0.6%)
0.7%
(0% - 1 .4%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1%)
0.074/5
0.5%
(-0.2%- 1.1%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.2%
(-0.2% - 0.7%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.5%
(0%- 1%)
0.4%
(0.2% - 0.7%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.8%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.5%
(0% - 0.9%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.6%
(0% - 1 .2%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.074/4
0.5%
(-0.2% -1.1%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.2%
(-0.2% - 0.6%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.5%
(0% - 0.9%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.9%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.5%
(0.1% -0.8%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.6%
(0%- 1.2%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.074/3
0.5%
(-0.2%- 1.1%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.2%
(-0.2% - 0.6%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.9%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.8%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.6%
(0%-1.1%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.070/4
0.4%
(-0.1% -0.9%)
0.4%
(0.2% - 0.7%)
0.2%
(-0.2% - 0.5%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.8%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.4%
(0.2% - 0.6%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.6%
(0%- 1.1%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.7%)
0.064/4
0.3%
(-0.1% -0.8%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.1%
(-0.1% -0.4%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0.1% -0.2%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.9%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
*AII results are for cardiovascular and respiratory mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. Results are based on single-pollutant single-city models or a single-pollutant multi-city model
estimated in Huang et al. (2004).
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr
average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
4-90
December 2006
-------
Table 4-25. Estimated Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative
8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations*
Risk Assessment Location
Atlanta
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Study Location
Atlanta
19 U.S. Cities
Chicago
19 U.S. Cities
Cleveland
19 U.S. Cities
Detroit
19 U.S. Cities
Houston
19 U.S. Cities
Los Angeles
19 U.S. Cities
New York
19 U.S. Cities
Philadelphia
19 U.S. Cities
Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
9
(-3 - 20)
9
(4-15)
26
(-23 - 73)
42
(1 6 - 68)
30
(-1 - 59)
25
(1 0 - 40)
21
(-2 - 44)
19
(7-31)
6
(-1-13)
6
(2-10)
38
(0 - 76)
45
(17-72)
102
(33 - 1 70)
75
(29 - 1 20)
26
(1-51)
22
(8 - 35)
0.084/3
9
(-3 - 20)
9
(4-15)
25
(-22 - 70)
40
(15-65)
28
(-1 - 57)
24
(9 - 39)
20
(-2-41)
18
(7 - 29)
6
(-1-12)
6
(2-10)
37
(0 - 73)
43
(16-69)
93
(30-155)
68
(26-109)
25
(1 - 48)
21
(8 - 33)
0.080/4
8
(-3-19)
9
(3-14)
24
(-21 - 68)
39
(1 5 - 63)
28
(-1 - 56)
24
(9 - 38)
19
(-2 - 40)
18
(7 - 29)
6
(-1-12)
6
(2-9)
33
(0 - 66)
39
(1 5 - 62)
95
(31 -159)
70
(27-113)
25
(1 - 48)
21
(8 - 33)
0.074/5
8
(-3-18)
8
(3-13)
22
(-20 - 64)
36
(14-59)
26
(-1 - 52)
22
(8 - 35)
19
(-2 - 40)
17
(7 - 28)
5
(-1-10)
5
(2-8)
24
(0 - 48)
28
(11 -45)
89
(28-148)
65
(25-105)
23
(1 - 44)
19
(7 - 30)
0.074/4
7
(-2-17)
8
(3-12)
21
(-19-60)
34
(1 3 - 55)
25
(-1-51)
21
(8 - 34)
17
(-2 - 36)
16
(6 - 25)
5
(-1-10)
5
(2-7)
24
(0 - 47)
27
(1 0 - 44)
86
(27 - 1 43)
63
(24 -101)
23
(1 - 44)
19
(7 - 30)
0.074/3
7
(-2-17)
8
(3-12)
20
(-1 8 - 57)
33
(13-53)
24
(-1 - 49)
21
(8 - 33)
16
(-2 - 33)
15
(6 - 24)
4
(-1 - 9)
4
(2-7)
22
(0 - 43)
25
(10-41)
78
(25-130)
57
(22 - 92)
21
(1-41)
18
(7 - 28)
0.070/4
7
(-2-15)
7
(3-11)
19
(-17-54)
31
(1 2 - 50)
24
(-1 - 47)
20
(8 - 32)
16
(-2 - 33)
14
(5 - 23)
4
(0-8)
4
(1-6)
18
(0 - 35)
20
(8 - 33)
79
(25 - 1 33)
58
(22 - 94)
21
(1-41)
17
(7 - 28)
0.064/4
6
(-2-13)
6
(2-9)
16
(-1 4 - 46)
26
(10-43)
21
(-1 - 42)
18
(7 - 29)
13
(-2 - 28)
12
(5 - 20)
2
(0-5)
2
(1-4)
11
(0-21)
12
(5 - 20)
70
(22-116)
51
(19-82)
19
(1 - 36)
15
(6 - 25)
*AII results are for cardiovascular and respiratory mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. Results are based on single-pollutant single-city models or a single-pollutant
multi-city model estimated in Huang et al. (2004).
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily
maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
4-91
December 2006
-------
Table 4-26. Estimated Cardiorespiratory Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet
the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations*
Risk Assessment Location
Atlanta
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Study Location
Atlanta
19 U.S. Cities
Chicago
19 U.S. Cities
Cleveland
19 U.S. Cities
Detroit
19 U.S. Cities
Houston
19 U.S. Cities
Los Angeles
19 U.S. Cities
New York
19 U.S. Cities
Philadelphia
19 U.S. Cities
Cardiorespiratory Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the
Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
0.6
(-0.2- 1.4)
0.6
(0.2 - 1)
0.5
(-0.4- 1.4)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .3)
2.1
(-0.1 - 4.2)
1.8
(0.7-2.9)
1
(-0.1 -2.1)
0.9
(0.4 - 1 .5)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
0.2
(0.1 -0.3)
0.4
(0 - 0.8)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.8)
1.1
(0.4 - 1 .9)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .3)
1.7
(0.1 -3.4)
1.4
(0.5-2.3)
0.084/3
0.6
(-0.2- 1.4)
0.6
(0.2 - 1)
0.5
(-0.4- 1.3)
0.7
(0.3 - 1 .2)
2
(-0.1 -4.1)
1.7
(0.7-2.8)
1
(-0.1 - 2)
0.9
(0.3 - 1 .4)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
0.2
(0.1 -0.3)
0.4
(0 - 0.8)
0.4
(0.2 - 0.7)
1
(0.3 - 1 .7)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .2)
1.6
(0.1 -3.2)
1.4
(0.5-2.2)
0.080/4
0.6
(-0.2- 1.3)
0.6
(0.2 - 0.9)
0.4
(-0.4- 1.3)
0.7
(0.3 - 1 .2)
2
(-0.1 - 4)
1.7
(0.6-2.7)
0.9
(-0.1 - 2)
0.9
(0.3 - 1 .4)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
0.2
(0.1 -0.3)
0.4
(0 - 0.7)
0.4
(0.2 - 0.7)
1.1
(0.3 - 1 .8)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .3)
1.6
(0.1 -3.2)
1.4
(0.5-2.2)
0.074/5
0.5
(-0.2- 1.2)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.9)
0.4
(-0.4- 1.2)
0.7
(0.3-1.1)
1.9
(0 - 3.7)
1.6
(0.6-2.5)
0.9
(-0.1 - 1.9)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .4)
0.1
(0 - 0.3)
0.1
(0.1 -0.2)
0.3
(0 - 0.5)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
1
(0.3 - 1 .7)
0.7
(0.3 - 1 .2)
1.5
(0.1 -2.9)
1.2
(0.5 - 2)
0.074/4
0.5
(-0.2- 1.1)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.8)
0.4
(-0.3- 1.1)
0.6
(0.2 - 1)
1.8
(0 - 3.6)
1.5
(0.6-2.5)
0.8
(-0.1-1.7)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .2)
0.1
(0 - 0.3)
0.1
(0.1 -0.2)
0.2
(0 - 0.5)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
1
(0.3 - 1 .6)
0.7
(0.3-1.1)
1.5
(0.1 -2.9)
1.2
(0.5 - 2)
0.074/3
0.5
(-0.2- 1.1)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.8)
0.4
(-0.3- 1.1)
0.6
(0.2 - 1)
1.8
(0 - 3.5)
1.5
(0.6-2.4)
0.8
(-0.1 - 1.6)
0.7
(0.3-1.1)
0.1
(0 - 0.3)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.2
(0 - 0.5)
0.3
(0.1 -0.4)
0.9
(0.3 - 1 .5)
0.6
(0.2 - 1)
1.4
(0.1 -2.7)
1.2
(0.4 - 1 .9)
0.070/4
0.4
(-0.1 - 1)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.7)
0.4
(-0.3-1)
0.6
(0.2 - 0.9)
1.7
(0 - 3.4)
1.4
(0.5-2.3)
0.8
(-0.1 - 1.6)
0.7
(0.3-1.1)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
0.2
(0.1 -0.3)
0.9
(0.3 - 1 .5)
0.7
(0.2-1.1)
1.4
(0.1 -2.7)
1.1
(0.4 - 1 .8)
0.064/4
0.4
(-0.1 - 0.9)
0.4
(0.1 -0.6)
0.3
(-0.3 - 0.9)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.8)
1.5
(0-3)
1.3
(0.5-2.1)
0.6
(-0.1 - 1.3)
0.6
(0.2 - 1)
0.1
(0-0.1)
0.1
(0-0.1)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.8
(0.2 - 1 .3)
0.6
(0.2 - 0.9)
1.2
(0.1 -2.4)
1
(0.4 - 1 .6)
*AII results are for cardiovascular and respiratory mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. Results are based on single-pollutant single-city models or a single-pollutant
multi-city model estimated in Huang et al. (2004).
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily
maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
4-92
December 2006
-------
Table 4-27. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet
the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations*
Risk Assessment Location
Atlanta
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Study Location
Atlanta
19 U.S. Cities
Chicago
19 U.S. Cities
Cleveland
19 U.S. Cities
Detroit
19 U.S. Cities
Houston
19 U.S. Cities
Los Angeles
19 U.S. Cities
New York
19 U.S. Cities
Philadelphia
19 U.S. Cities
Percent of Total Incidence of Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative
O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
0.9%
(-0.3% -2.1%)
0.9%
(0.4% - 1 .5%)
0.5%
(-0.5% - 1 .4%)
0.8%
(0.3% - 1 .3%)
1 .6%
(0% - 3.2%)
1 .3%
(0.5% -2.1%)
0.9%
(-0.1% -1.8%)
0.8%
(0.3% - 1 .3%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.5%
(0% - 1 %)
0.6%
(0.2% -1%)
1.1%
(0.4% - 1 .9%)
0.8%
(0.3% - 1 .4%)
1 .4%
(0.1% -2. 8%)
1.2%
(0.5% - 1 .9%)
0.084/3
0.9%
(-0.3% -2.1%)
0.9%
(0.4%- 1.5%)
0.5%
(-0.4%- 1.4%)
0.8%
(0.3%- 1.3%)
1 .5%
(0% - 3%)
1 .3%
(0.5% -2.1%)
0.8%
(-0.1%- 1.7%)
0.7%
(0.3%- 1.2%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.5%
(0%- 1%)
0.6%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
1%
(0.3%- 1.7%)
0.8%
(0.3%- 1.2%)
1 .4%
(0.1% -2.6%)
1.1%
(0.4%- 1.8%)
0.080/4
0.8%
(-0.3% - 1 .9%)
0.9%
(0.3% - 1 .4%)
0.5%
(-0.4% - 1 .3%)
0.8%
(0.3% - 1 .2%)
1 .5%
(0% - 3%)
1 .3%
(0.5% - 2%)
0.8%
(-0.1% -1.7%)
0.7%
(0.3% - 1 .2%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.5%
(0% - 0.9%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
1.1%
(0.3% - 1 .8%)
0.8%
(0.3% - 1 .3%)
1 .4%
(0.1% -2. 6%)
1.1%
(0.4% - 1 .8%)
0.074/5
0.8%
(-0.3%- 1.8%)
0.8%
(0.3%- 1.3%)
0.4%
(-0.4%- 1.2%)
0.7%
(0.3%- 1.2%)
1 .4%
(0%-2.8%)
1 .2%
(0.4%- 1.9%)
0.8%
(-0.1%- 1.6%)
0.7%
(0.3%- 1.2%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
1%
(0.3%- 1.7%)
0.7%
(0.3%- 1.2%)
1 .2%
(0.1% -2.4%)
1%
(0.4%- 1.7%)
0.074/4
0.7%
(-0.2% - 1 .7%)
0.8%
(0.3% - 1 .2%)
0.4%
(-0.4% - 1 .2%)
0.7%
(0.3% -1.1%)
1 .4%
(0% - 2.7%)
1.1%
(0.4% - 1 .8%)
0.7%
(-0.1% -1.5%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
1%
(0.3% - 1 .6%)
0.7%
(0.3% -1.1%)
1.2%
(0.1% -2. 4%)
1%
(0.4% - 1 .6%)
0.074/3
0.7%
(-0.2%- 1.7%)
0.8%
(0.3%- 1.2%)
0.4%
(-0.4%- 1.1%)
0.6%
(0.2%- 1%)
1 .3%
(0%-2.6%)
1.1%
(0.4%- 1.8%)
0.7%
(-0.1%- 1.4%)
0.6%
(0.2%- 1%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.9%
(0.3%- 1.5%)
0.6%
(0.2%- 1%)
1 .2%
(0.1% -2.2%)
1%
(0.4%- 1.5%)
0.070/4
0.7%
(-0.2% - 1 .6%)
0.7%
(0.3% -1.1%)
0.4%
(-0.3% -1.1%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1%)
1 .3%
(0% - 2.5%)
1.1%
(0.4% - 1 .7%)
0.6%
(-0.1% -1.3%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.9%
(0.3% - 1 .5%)
0.7%
(0.2% -1.1%)
1.1%
(0.1% -2. 2%)
0.9%
(0.4% - 1 .5%)
0.064/4
0.6%
(-0.2%- 1.3%)
0.6%
(0.2%- 1%)
0.3%
(-0.3% - 0.9%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
1.1%
(0%-2.3%)
1%
(0.4%- 1.5%)
0.5%
(-0.1%- 1.1%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.8%
(0.2%- 1.3%)
0.6%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
1%
(0% - 2%)
0.8%
(0.3%- 1.3%)
*AII results are for cardiovascular and respiratory mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. Results are based on single-pollutant single-city models or a single-pollutant multi-city model
estimated in Huang et al. (2004).
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr
average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
4-93
December 2006
-------
Table 4-28. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily
Maximum Standards: New York, NY, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Hospital admissions
(unscheduled),
respiratory illness
Hospital admissions
(unscheduled),
asthma
Study
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities
(2004)*****
Huang et al. (2004)*****
Huang et al. - 19 US
Cities (2004)*****
Huang et al. - 19 US
Cities (2004)*****
Huang et al. - 19 US
Cities (2004)*****
Huang et al. - 19 US
Cities (2004)*****
Huang et al. - 19 US
Cities (2004)*****
Thurston et al.
(1992)******
Thurston et al.
(1992)******
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
Lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
3-day lag
1-day lag
Exposure
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
Other
Pollutants
In Model
none
none
none
CO
N02
PM10
S02
none
none
Incidence of H
0.084/4***
43
(15-72)
53
(17-89)
39
(15-63)
22
(6 - 37)
19
(3 - 34)
23
(-9 - 55)
16
(0 - 32)
366
(89 - 644)
313
(66 - 559)
ealth Effects A
0.084/3
38
(13-63)
47
(15-78)
34
(13-55)
19
(6 - 32)
16
(3 - 30)
20
(-8 - 48)
14
(0 - 28)
334
(81 - 588)
286
(61 - 510)
ssoclated with (
0.080/4
39
(13-65)
48
(15-80)
35
(13-57)
20
(6 - 33)
17
(3-31)
21
(-8 - 50)
14
(0 - 29)
341
(82 - 599)
291
(62 - 520)
33 Concentratlo
0.074/5
35
(12 -58)
43
(14-71)
31
(12 -50)
17
(5 - 29)
15
(3 - 27)
19
(-7 - 44)
13
(0 - 25)
314
(76 - 551)
268
(57 - 479)
ns that Just Me
0.074/4
33
(11 -55)
41
(13-68)
30
(11 -48)
17
(5 - 28)
14
(3 - 26)
18
(-7 - 42)
12
(0 - 24)
304
(73 - 534)
259
(55 - 464)
et the Current a
0.074/3
29
(10-48)
36
(1 1 - 60)
26
(10-42)
14
(4 - 25)
13
(2 - 23)
16
(-6 - 37)
11
(0-21)
279
(67 - 490)
238
(51 - 425)
nd Alternative C
0.070/4
29
(10-49)
36
(1 1 - 60)
26
(10-42)
15
(4 - 25)
13
(2 - 23)
16
(-6 - 37)
11
(0 - 22)
278
(67 - 489)
238
(51 - 425)
) 3 Standards**
0.064/4
24
(8 - 39)
29
(9 - 49)
21
(8 - 34)
12
(3 - 20)
10
(2-19)
13
(-5 - 30)
9
(0-17)
241
(58 - 424)
206
(44 - 368)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily
maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
*****New York in this study is defined as the five boroughs of New York City plus Westchester County.
******New York in this study is defined as the five boroughs of New York City.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
4-94
December 2006
-------
Table 4-29. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current
and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: New York, NY, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Hospital admissions
(unscheduled),
respiratory illness
Hospital admissions
(unscheduled),
asthma
Study
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities
(2004)*****
Huang et al. (2004)*****
Huang et al. - 19 US
Cities (2004)*****
Huang et al. - 19 US
Cities (2004)*****
Huang et al. - 19 US
Cities (2004)*****
Huang et al. - 19 US
Cities (2004)*****
Huang et al. - 19 US
Cities (2004)*****
Thurston et al.
(1992)******
Thurston et al.
(1992)******
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
Lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
3-day lag
1-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
Other
Pollutants
In Model
none
none
none
CO
N02
PM10
S02
none
none
Incidence of Health Effects per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current
and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
0.5
(0.2 - 0.8)
0.6
(0.2-1)
0.4
(0.2 - 0.7)
0.2
(0.1 - 0.4)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
0.3
(-0.1 -0.6)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
4.6
(1.1 -8)
3.9
(0.8 - 7)
0.084/3
0.4
(0.1 - 0.7)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.9)
0.4
(0.1 - 0.6)
0.2
(0.1 - 0.4)
0.2
(0 - 0.3)
0.2
(-0.1 -0.5)
0.2
(0 - 0.3)
4.2
(1 - 7.3)
3.6
(0.8 - 6.4)
0.080/4
0.4
(0.1 - 0.7)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.9)
0.4
(0.2 - 0.6)
0.2
(0.1 - 0.4)
0.2
(0 - 0.3)
0.2
(-0.1 -0.6)
0.2
(0 - 0.3)
4.3
(1 - 7.5)
3.6
(0.8 - 6.5)
0.074/5
0.4
(0.1 -0.6)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.8)
0.3
(0.1 -0.6)
0.2
(0.1 -0.3)
0.2
(0 - 0.3)
0.2
(-0.1 -0.5)
0.1
(0 - 0.3)
3.9
(0.9 - 6.9)
3.3
(0.7 - 6)
0.074/4
0.4
(0.1 -0.6)
0.5
(0.1 -0.8)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
0.2
(0.1 -0.3)
0.2
(0 - 0.3)
0.2
(-0.1 - 0.5)
0.1
(0 - 0.3)
3.8
(0.9 - 6.7)
3.2
(0.7 - 5.8)
0.074/3
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
0.4
(0.1 -0.7)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
0.2
(0 - 0.3)
0.1
(0 - 0.3)
0.2
(-0.1 - 0.4)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
3.5
(0.8-6.1)
3
(0.6 - 5.3)
0.070/4
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
0.4
(0.1 -0.7)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
0.2
(0 - 0.3)
0.1
(0 - 0.3)
0.2
(-0.1 - 0.4)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
3.5
(0.8-6.1)
3
(0.6 - 5.3)
0.064/4
0.3
(0.1 -0.4)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
0.2
(0.1 -0.4)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.1
(-0.1 - 0.3)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
3
(0.7 - 5.3)
2.6
(0.5 - 4.6)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily
maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
*****New York in this study is defined as the five boroughs of New York City plus Westchester County.
******New York in this study is defined as the five boroughs of New York City.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
4-95
December 2006
-------
Table 4-30. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily
Maximum Standards: New York, NY, April -September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Hospital admissions
(unscheduled),
respiratory illness
Hospital admissions
(unscheduled),
asthma
Study
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities
(2004)*****
Huang et al. (2004)*****
Huang etal. - 19 US
Cities (2004)*****
Huang etal.- 19 US
Cities (2004)*****
Huang etal.- 19 US
Cities (2004)*****
Huang etal.- 19 US
Cities (2004)*****
Huang etal.- 19 US
Cities (2004)*****
Thurston et al.
(1992)******
Thurston et al.
(1992)******
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
Lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
3-day lag
1-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
Other
Pollutants
in Model
none
none
none
CO
NO2
PIM10
SO2
none
none
Percent of Total Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3
Standards**
0.084/4***
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1%)
0.4%
(0.2% - 0.7%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.3%
(-0.1% -0.6%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
1%
(0.3% - 1 .8%)
2.4%
(0.5% - 4.3%)
0.084/3
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.9%
(0.2% - 1 .7%)
2.2%
(0.5% - 3.9%)
0.080/4
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.4%
(0.2% - 0.6%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.6%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
1%
(0.2% - 1 .7%)
2.2%
(0.5% - 4%)
0.074/5
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.5%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.9%
(0.2% - 1 .6%)
2%
(0.4% - 3.6%)
0.074/4
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.5%
(0.1% -0.8%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.5%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.9%
(0.2% - 1 .5%)
2%
(0.4% - 3.5%)
0.074/3
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.8%
(0.2% - 1 .4%)
1 .8%
(0.4% - 3.2%)
0.070/4
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.8%
(0.2% - 1 .4%)
1 .8%
(0.4% - 3.2%)
0.064/4
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(-0.1% -0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .2%)
1 .6%
(0.3% - 2.8%)
*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum
standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
*****New York in this study is defined as the five boroughs of New York City plus Westchester County.
******New York in this study is defined as the five boroughs of New York City.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
4-96
December 2006
-------
Table 4-31. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily
Maximum Standards: New York, NY, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Hospital admissions
(unscheduled),
respiratory illness
Hospital admissions
(unscheduled),
asthma
Study
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities
(2004)*****
Huang et al. (2004)*****
Huang et al. - 19 US
Cities (2004)*****
Huang et al. - 19 US
Cities (2004)*****
Huang et al. - 19 US
Cities (2004)*****
Huang et al. - 19 US
Cities (2004)*****
Huang et al. - 19 US
Cities (2004)*****
Thurston et al.
(1992)******
Thurston et al.
(1992)******
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
Lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
3-day lag
1-day lag
Exposure
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
Other
Pollutants
In Model
none
none
none
CO
N02
PM10
S02
none
none
Incidence of H
0.084/4***
84
(28 - 1 39)
102
(33-170)
75
(29 - 1 20)
42
(12-71)
36
(6 - 66)
45
(-17-105)
31
(0-61)
513
(124 - 902)
438
(93 - 783)
ealth Effects A
0.084/3
76
(25 - 1 26)
93
(30-155)
68
(26 - 1 09)
38
(1 1 - 64)
33
(6 - 60)
41
(-16-96)
28
(0 - 56)
472
(1 1 4 - 830)
403
(86 - 720)
ssoclated with (
0.080/4
78
(26 - 1 30)
95
(31 -159)
70
(27- 113)
39
(1 1 - 66)
34
(6-61)
42
(-16-98)
29
(0 - 57)
483
(1 1 7 - 850)
413
(88 - 738)
33 Concentratlo
0.074/5
73
(24- 121)
89
(28-148)
65
(25 - 1 05)
36
(11 -61)
31
(6 - 57)
39
(-15-91)
27
(0 - 53)
452
(1 09 - 795)
386
(82 - 690)
ns that Just Me
0.074/4
70
(23-11 6)
86
(27- 143)
63
(24- 101)
35
(10-59)
30
(5 - 55)
37
(-14-88)
26
(0-51)
439
(1 06 - 772)
375
(80 - 670)
et the Current a
0.074/3
64
(21 - 106)
78
(25- 130)
57
(22 - 92)
32
(9 - 54)
28
(5 - 50)
34
(-13-80)
23
(0 - 47)
404
(98 - 71 0)
345
(73 - 61 7)
nd Alternative C
0.070/4
65
(22- 108)
79
(25- 133)
58
(22 - 94)
32
(9 - 55)
28
(5-51)
35
(-13-82)
24
(0 - 48)
410
(99 - 721)
350
(75 - 626)
) 3 Standards**
0.064/4
57
(19-95)
70
(22- 116)
51
(19-82)
28
(8 - 48)
25
(4 - 45)
30
(-12-72)
21
(0 - 42)
365
(88 - 642)
312
(66 - 558)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily
maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
*****New York in this study is defined as the five boroughs of New York City plus Westchester County.
******New York in this study is defined as the five boroughs of New York City.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
4-97
December 2006
-------
Table 4-32. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current
and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: New York, NY, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Hospital admissions
(unscheduled),
respiratory illness
Hospital admissions
(unscheduled),
asthma
Study
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities
(2004)*****
Huang et al. (2004)*****
Huang et al. - 19 US
Cities (2004)*****
Huang et al. - 19 US
Cities (2004)*****
Huang et al. - 19 US
Cities (2004)*****
Huang et al. - 19 US
Cities (2004)*****
Huang et al. - 19 US
Cities (2004)*****
Thurston et al.
(1992)******
Thurston et al.
(1992)******
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
Lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
3-day lag
1-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
Other
Pollutants
In Model
none
none
none
CO
N02
PM10
S02
none
none
Incidence of Health Effects per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current
and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
0.9
(0.3- 1.6)
1.1
(0.4- 1.9)
0.8
(0.3- 1.3)
0.5
(0.1 - 0.8)
0.4
(0.1 - 0.7)
0.5
(-0.2 - 1 .2)
0.3
(0 - 0.7)
6.4
(1.5- 11.3)
5.5
(1.2-9.8)
0.084/3
0.9
(0.3- 1.4)
1
(0.3- 1.7)
0.8
(0.3- 1.2)
0.4
(0.1 - 0.7)
0.4
(0.1 - 0.7)
0.5
(-0.2-1.1)
0.3
(0 - 0.6)
5.9
(1.4- 10.4)
5
(1.1 -9)
0.080/4
0.9
(0.3- 1.5)
1.1
(0.3- 1.8)
0.8
(0.3- 1.3)
0.4
(0.1 - 0.7)
0.4
(0.1 - 0.7)
0.5
(-0.2-1.1)
0.3
(0 - 0.6)
6
(1.5- 10.6)
5.2
(1.1 -9.2)
0.074/5
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .4)
1
(0.3 - 1 .7)
0.7
(0.3 - 1 .2)
0.4
(0.1 -0.7)
0.4
(0.1 -0.6)
0.4
(-0.2 - 1)
0.3
(0 - 0.6)
5.6
(1.4-9.9)
4.8
(1 - 8.6)
0.074/4
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .3)
1
(0.3 - 1 .6)
0.7
(0.3- 1.1)
0.4
(0.1 -0.7)
0.3
(0.1 -0.6)
0.4
(-0.2 - 1)
0.3
(0 - 0.6)
5.5
(1.3-9.6)
4.7
(1 - 8.4)
0.074/3
0.7
(0.2 - 1 .2)
0.9
(0.3 - 1 .5)
0.6
(0.2 - 1)
0.4
(0.1 -0.6)
0.3
(0.1 -0.6)
0.4
(-0.1 - 0.9)
0.3
(0 - 0.5)
5
(1.2 -8.9)
4.3
(0.9 - 7.7)
0.070/4
0.7
(0.2 - 1 .2)
0.9
(0.3 - 1 .5)
0.7
(0.2 - 1.1)
0.4
(0.1 -0.6)
0.3
(0.1 -0.6)
0.4
(-0.1 - 0.9)
0.3
(0 - 0.5)
5.1
(1 .2 - 9)
4.4
(0.9 - 7.8)
0.064/4
0.6
(0.2 - 1.1)
0.8
(0.2 - 1 .3)
0.6
(0.2 - 0.9)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
0.3
(0 - 0.5)
0.3
(-0.1 - 0.8)
0.2
(0 - 0.5)
4.6
(1.1-8)
3.9
(0.8 - 7)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily
maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
*****New York in this study is defined as the five boroughs of New York City plus Westchester County.
******New York in this study is defined as the five boroughs of New York City.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
4-98
December 2006
-------
Table 4-33. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily
Maximum Standards: New York, NY, April -September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Hospital admissions
(unscheduled),
respiratory illness
Hospital admissions
(unscheduled),
asthma
Study
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities
(2004)*****
Huang et al. (2004)*****
Huang etal. - 19 US
Cities (2004)*****
Huang etal.- 19 US
Cities (2004)*****
Huang etal.- 19 US
Cities (2004)*****
Huang etal.- 19 US
Cities (2004)*****
Huang etal.- 19 US
Cities (2004)*****
Thurston et al.
(1992)******
Thurston et al.
(1992)******
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
Lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
3-day lag
1-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
Other
Pollutants
in Model
none
none
none
CO
NO2
PIM10
SO2
none
none
Percent of Total Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3
Standards**
0.084/4***
0.3%
(0.1% -0.4%)
1.1%
(0.4% - 1 .9%)
0.8%
(0.3% - 1 .4%)
0.5%
(0.1% -0.8%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.5%
(-0.2% - 1 .2%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.7%)
1 .5%
(0.4% -2.6%)
3.3%
(0.7% - 6%)
0.084/3
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
1%
(0.3% - 1 .7%)
0.8%
(0.3% - 1 .2%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.5%
(-0.2% -1.1%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
1 .3%
(0.3% - 2.3%)
3.1%
(0.7% - 5.5%)
0.080/4
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
1.1%
(0.3% - 1 .8%)
0.8%
(0.3% - 1 .3%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.5%
(-0.2% -1.1%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
1 .4%
(0.3% -2.4%)
3.1%
(0.7% - 5.6%)
0.074/5
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
1%
(0.3% - 1 .7%)
0.7%
(0.3% - 1 .2%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.4%
(-0.2% -1%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
1 .3%
(0.3% - 2.2%)
2.9%
(0.6% - 5.3%)
0.074/4
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
1%
(0.3% - 1 .6%)
0.7%
(0.3% -1.1%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.4%
(-0.2%- 1%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
1 .2%
(0.3% -2.2%)
2.9%
(0.6% -5.1%)
0.074/3
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.9%
(0.3% - 1 .5%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.4%
(-0.1% -0.9%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.5%)
1.1%
(0.3% - 2%)
2.6%
(0.6% - 4.7%)
0.070/4
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.9%
(0.3% - 1 .5%)
0.7%
(0.2% -1.1%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.4%
(-0.1% -0.9%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.5%)
1 .2%
(0.3% - 2%)
2.7%
(0.6% - 4.8%)
0.064/4
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.8%
(0.2% - 1 .3%)
0.6%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.3%
(-0.1% -0.8%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
1%
(0.2% - 1 .8%)
2.4%
(0.5% - 4.2%)
*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum
standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
*****New York in this study is defined as the five boroughs of New York City plus Westchester County.
******New York in this study is defined as the five boroughs of New York City.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
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The results in this portion of the risk assessment follow the same patterns as the
results discussed in Section 4.2.1 for risks associated with "as is" O3 concentrations,
because they are largely driven by the same C-R function coefficient estimates and
confidence or credible intervals.
All results discussed below are for April through September. The top graph on
each page shows results based on 2004 air quality, and the bottom graph shows results
based on 2002 air quality. Figures 4-9a and b show estimated percent of non-accidental
mortality related to O3 concentrations that just meet the current 8-hour O3 standard, based
on single-pollutant, single-city models across all locations for which such models were
available. Tables 4-16, 4-17, and 4-18 show estimates of incidence, incidence per
100,000 relevant population, and percent of total incidence, respectively, of non-
accidental mortality related to O3 concentrations that just meet the current and alternative
8-hour O3 standards, based on both single-city and multi-city models, using air quality
data for 2004. Tables 4-19, 4-20, and 4-21 show estimates of the same measures of non-
accidental mortality risk, using air quality data for 2002.
Using 2004 O3 concentrations, estimates of non-accidental mortality related to O3
concentrations that just meet the current 8-hour O3 standards ranged from 0.3 per 100,000
relevant population in Atlanta (Bell et al., 2004), Houston (Bell et al., 2004 - 95 U.S.
Cities), and Los Angeles (Bell et al., 2004) to 5.8 per 100,000 relevant population in
Chicago (Schwartz, 2004). The corresponding results based on 2002 O3 concentrations
ranged from 0.3 per 100,000 relevant population in Houston (Bell et al., 2004 - 95 U.S.
Cities) and Los Angeles (Bell et al., 2004) to 7.9 per 100,000 relevant population in
Chicago (Schwartz, 2004). As was the case for the analysis of effects associated with "as
is" O3 concentrations, estimated O3-related (non-accidental) mortality reported by
Schwartz (2004) for Chicago, Detroit, and Houston, based on both the single-city and the
multi-city C-R functions, tend to be higher than other estimates in those locations in large
part because Schwartz used the 1-hr maximum O3 concentration, rather than the 24-hour
average, as the exposure metric. The changes from 1-hr maximum O3 concentrations that
just meet the current 8-hour O3 standard to PRB 1-hr maximum O3 concentrations were
generally larger in the assessment locations than the corresponding changes using the 24-
hr average metric.
As a percent of total incidence, estimated non-accidental mortality related to O3
concentrations that just meet the current 8-hour O3 standard, based on 2004 O3
concentrations, ranged from 0.1 percent in several locations (Atlanta, Chicago, Detroit,
Houston, Los Angeles, New York, and St. Louis) to 1.5 percent in Chicago (Schwartz,
2004). The corresponding results based on 2002 O3 concentrations ranged from 0.1
percent in Houston and Los Angeles to 2 percent in Chicago. Although 7 of the 12
estimates from single-city single-pollutant models shown in Figures 4-9a and b were not
statistically significant, all 12 were positive.
Figures 4-10a and b show estimated percent of cardiorespiratory mortality and
cases per 100,000 relevant population related to O3 concentrations that just meet the
current 8-hour O3 standard, based on multi-city single-pollutant versus multi-pollutant
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models from Huang et al. (2004) across all locations for which such models were
available. Tables 4-22, 4-23, and 4-24 show estimates of incidence, incidence per
100,000 relevant population, and percent of total incidence, respectively, of
cardiorespiratory mortality related to O3 concentrations that just meet the current and
alternative 8-hour O3 standards in all risk assessment locations covered in Huang et al.
(2004), using air quality data for 2004. Tables 4-25, 4-26, and 4-27 show estimates of the
same measures of cardiorespiratory mortality risk, using air quality data for 2002.
Using 2004 O3 concentrations, estimates of O3-related cardiorespiratory mortality
related to O3 concentrations that just meet the current 8-hour O3 standards ranged from
0.2 per 100,000 relevant population in Houston (using both the single-city and the multi-
city C-R functions) to 1.0 per 100,000 relevant population in Philadelphia (using the
single-city C-R function). The corresponding results based on 2002 O3 concentrations
ranged from 0.2 per 100,000 relevant population in Houston to 2.1 per 100,000 relevant
population in Cleveland.
As a percent of total incidence, using 2004 O3 concentrations, estimated O3-
related cardiorespiratory mortality ranged from 0.3 percent in Chicago (using the single-
city C-R function) to 0.8 percent in Los Angeles (using the multi-city C-R function) and
Philadelphia (using the single-city C-R function). The corresponding results based on
2002 O3 concentrations ranged from 0.3 percent in Houston to 1.6 percent in Cleveland.
All of the estimates of O3-related cardiorespiratory mortality based on Huang et
al. (2004), from both single-pollutant and multi-pollutant models (see Figures lOa and b)
and from both single-city and multi-city models (see Tables 4-22 through 4-27) were
positive. Five of the single-city single-pollutant "shrinkage" estimates (for Atlanta,
Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, and Houston) and the estimate from the multi-city multi-
pollutant model with PMi0 were not statistically significant. All the rest of the estimates
of O3-related cardiorespiratory mortality based on Huang et al. (2004) were statistically
significant.
Figures 4-1 la and b show estimated percent of non-accidental mortality and cases
per 100,000 relevant population related to O3 concentrations that just meet the current 8-
hour O3 standard, based on single-city versus multi-city models across all locations for
which both types of model were available. The results followed the same patterns as
were observed in the analysis of effects associated with "as is" O3 concentrations above
PRB levels, discussed in Section 4.2.1 above (see also Figures 4-5a and b). Similarly,
the results seen in Figures 4-12a and b, for cardiorespiratory mortality, followed the same
patterns as are evident in the corresponding analysis of "as is" O3 concentrations (see
Figures 4-5a and b).
The effect of O3 lag structure on O3-related unscheduled hospital admissions in
Detroit (Ito 2003), shown in Figures 4-13a and b, followed the same patterns as were
evident in the analysis of risks associated with "as is" O3 concentrations. Estimated
pneumonia hospital admissions associated with O3 concentrations that just meet the
current 8-hour O3 standard increased monotonically with increasing lag, with the greatest
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estimate predicted by a 3-day lag model. None of the estimates of O3-related
unscheduled hospital admissions in Detroit were statistically significant.
Figures 4-14a and b and 4-15a and b show the estimated annual percent of non-
accidental mortality and cardiorespiratory mortality, respectively, associated with short-
term exposure to O3 concentrations that just meet the current 8-hour daily maximum
standard that fall within specified ranges. The pattern of results was similar to the pattern
seen for "as is" O3 concentrations. Using simulated O3 concentrations that just meet the
current 8-hour standard based on 2004 air quality data, all O3-related non-accidental
mortality was associated with 24-hr average O3 concentrations less than 0.06 ppm, and
most of that was associated with 24-hr average O3 concentrations less than 0.04 ppm.
Using simulated O3 concentrations that just meet the current 8-hour standard based on
2002 air quality data, all O3-related non-accidental mortality was associated with 24-hr
average O3 concentrations less than 0.08 ppm, and the great majority was associated with
24-hr average O3 concentrations less than 0.06 ppm. The results for cardiorespiratory
mortality follow a similar pattern.
Comparisons of alternative 8-hour daily maximum standards to the current
standard are shown in Figures 4-16a and b and 4-17a and b for non-accidental and
cardiorespiratory mortality, respectively. At the most stringent standard shown (0.064
ppm 4th daily maximum), the aggregate O3-related non-accidental mortality is estimated
to be 55 percent of what it would be at the current standard, using simulated O3
concentrations that just meet the current and alternative 8-hour standards based on 2004
air quality data. Using 2002 air quality data, the corresponding result is 40 percent. The
patterns for cardiorespiratory mortality are similar. The aggregate O3-related
cardiorespiratory mortality at the most stringent standard shown is estimated to be about
57 percent of what it would be at the current standard, using simulated O3 concentrations
that just meet the current and alternative 8-hour standards based on 2004 air quality data.
Using 2002 air quality data, the corresponding result is about 42 percent.
4.2.2.2 Results for five locations for the current standard and two alternative
standards, based on 2002, 2003, and 2004 air quality data
As an alternative to the original seven 8-hour daily maximum standards, we
considered a smaller set of three 8-hour daily maximum standards, including the current
standard (0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum) and two alternative standards from the original
set of seven (0.074 ppm, 4th daily maximum and 0.064 ppm. 4th daily maximum). Non-
accidental and cardiorespiratory mortality risk results for these alternative standards, as
well as for a year of recent air quality, are shown for a subset of locations - Atlanta,
Chicago, Houston, Los Angeles, and New York - using 2002 air quality data in Tables 4-
34 through 4-36 for non-accidental mortality and Tables 4-37 through 4-39 for
cardiorespiratory mortality. Tables showing the corresponding results based on 2003 and
2004 air quality are given in Appendix H. The results are shown in terms of percent
reductions in O3-related mortality when O3 concentrations are changed from those that
just meet the current standard to a recent year of air quality as well as to the two
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alternative 8-hour standards in Figures 4-18a, b, and c, based on 2004, 2003, and 2002 air
quality data respectively.
Figures 4-18a, b, and c show that, based on adjusting air quality data from all
three years, the greatest reductions in mortality risk (relative to the mortality risks at the
current standard) occur for standards which specify 0.064 ppm as the target
concentration, and the next greatest risk reductions occur at standards which specify
0.074 as the target concentration. Based on adjusting 2004 air quality, mortality risk
reductions (from risks at the current standard) at a standard of 0.064 ppm, 4th daily
maximum ranged from 44% in New York to 70% in Los Angeles. The corresponding
ranges of percent decreases in mortality risk were from 22% (in Atlanta) to 34% (in Los
Angeles) for a standard of 0.074, 4th daily maximum. In all five locations, the percent
decreases in mortality risk (from risk at the current standard) were higher at the two 0.064
ppm standard than at the 0.074 ppm standard. The same patterns are observed when just
meeting standards is based on adjusting 2003 and 2002 air quality data.
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Table 4-34. Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and
Two Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations*
Location
Atlanta
Chicago
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with 2002 O3
Concentrations and O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and
Alternative O3 Standards**
2002 Air Quality
9
(-37 - 54)
17
(6 - 29)
69
(23-115)
505
(1 61 - 840)
191
(60 - 321 )
29
(2 - 57)
14
(5 - 24)
85
(8-161)
71
(22-119)
51
(-124-224)
110
(37 - 1 84)
105
(35 - 1 74)
0.084/4***
7
(-30 - 43)
14
(5 - 23)
55
(18-91)
427
(1 36 - 71 2)
161
(51 -271)
18
(1 - 34)
9
(3-15)
63
(6-119)
53
(16-88)
24
(-58-105)
52
(17-86)
84
(28 - 1 39)
0.074/4
6
(-24 - 35)
11
(4-19)
44
(15-74)
361
(115-603)
136
(43 - 229)
13
(1 - 25)
6
(2-10)
51
(5 - 97)
43
(13-72)
15
(-35 - 64)
32
(11-53)
70
(23-116)
0.064/4
4
(-1 9 - 27)
9
(3-14)
34
(11-57)
294
(93 - 493)
111
(35 - 1 87)
7
(0-13)
3
(1 -5)
36
(3 - 69)
30
(9-51)
7
(-1 6 - 29)
14
(5 - 23)
57
(19-95)
*AII results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm,
4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level
(e.g., 0.084 ppm).
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
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December 2006
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Table 4-35. Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations
that Just Meet the Current and Two Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September,
Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations*
Location
Atlanta
Chicago
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population
Associated with 2002 O3 Concentrations and O3 Concentration that Just
Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
2002 Air Quality
0.6
(-2.5 - 3.6)
1.2
(0.4- 1.9)
1.3
(0.4-2.1)
9.4
(3-15.6)
3.6
(1.1 -6)
0.9
(0.1-1.7)
0.4
(0.1 - 0.7)
2.5
(0.2 - 4.7)
2.1
(0.7 - 3.5)
0.5
(-1.3-2.4)
1.2
(0.4- 1.9)
1.2
(0.4 - 2)
0.084/4***
0.5
(-2 - 2.9)
0.9
(0.3- 1.6)
1
(0.3-1.7)
7.9
(2.5-13.2)
3
(0.9 - 5)
0.5
(0-1)
0.3
(0.1 - 0.4)
1.8
(0.2 - 3.5)
1.5
(0.5 - 2.6)
0.3
(-0.6-1.1)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.9)
0.9
(0.3- 1.6)
0.074/4
0.4
(-1.6-2.4)
0.8
(0.3- 1.3)
0.8
(0.3-1.4)
6.7
(2.1 -11.2)
2.5
(0.8 - 4.3)
0.4
(0 - 0.7)
0.2
(0.1 - 0.3)
1.5
(0.1 - 2.9)
1.3
(0.4-2.1)
0.2
(-0.4 - 0.7)
0.3
(0.1 - 0.6)
0.8
(0.3-1.3)
0.064/4
0.3
(-1.3-1.8)
0.6
(0.2-1)
0.6
(0.2-1.1)
5.5
(1.7-9.2)
2.1
(0.6 - 3.5)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
1.1
(0.1 - 2)
0.9
(0.3- 1.5)
0.1
(-0.2 - 0.3)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.6
(0.2-1.1)
*AII results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is
0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year
period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
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December 2006
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Table 4-36. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet
the Current and Two Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3
Concentrations*
Location
Atlanta
Chicago
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with
2002 O3 Concentrations and O3 Concentration that Just Meet the Current
and Alternative O3 Standards**
2002 Air Quality
0.2%
(-0.8% - 1 .2%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
2.4%
(0.8% - 4%)
0.9%
(0.3% - 1 .5%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.9%
(0.1%- 1.8%)
0.8%
(0.2% - 1 .3%)
0.2%
(-0.5% - 0.8%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.084/4***
0.2%
(-0.7% - 0.9%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.4%)
2%
(0.6% - 3.4%)
0.8%
(0.2% - 1 .3%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.7%
(0.1%- 1.3%)
0.6%
(0.2%- 1%)
0.1%
(-0.2% - 0.4%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.074/4
0.1%
(-0.5% - 0.8%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
1.7%
(0.5% - 2.9%)
0.6%
(0.2%- 1.1%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.6%
(0.1%- 1.1%)
0.5%
(0.1% -0.8%)
0.1%
(-0.1% -0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.064/4
0.1%
(-0.4% - 0.6%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
1.4%
(0.4% - 2.3%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.8%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0%
(-0.1% -0.1%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
*AII results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 —
0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or
below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
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December 2006
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Table 4-37. Estimated Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Two
Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations*
Risk Assessment Location
Atlanta
Chicago
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Study Location
Atlanta
19 U.S. Cities
Chicago
19 U.S. Cities
Houston
19 U.S. Cities
Los Angeles
19 U.S. Cities
New York
19 U.S. Cities
Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative
O3 Standards**
2002 Air Quality
11
(-4 - 25)
11
(4-18)
32
(-29 - 93)
53
(20 - 86)
10
(-1 - 22)
11
(4-17)
82
(1 -162)
95
(36- 153)
128
(41 - 21 3)
94
(36- 151)
0.084/4***
9
(-3 - 20)
9
(4-15)
26
(-23 - 73)
42
(1 6 - 68)
6
(-1-13)
6
(2-10)
38
(0 - 76)
45
(17-72)
102
(33-170)
75
(29-120)
0.074/4
7
(-2-17)
8
(3-12)
21
(-19-60)
34
(1 3 - 55)
5
(-1-10)
5
(2-7)
24
(0 - 47)
27
(1 0 - 44)
86
(27-143)
63
(24- 101)
0.064/4
6
(-2-13)
6
(2-9)
16
(-14-46)
26
(1 0 - 43)
2
(0-5)
2
(1-4)
11
(0-21)
12
(5 - 20)
70
(22 - 1 1 6)
51
(1 9 - 82)
*AII results are for cardiovascular and respiratory mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. Results are based on single-pollutant single-city models or a
single-pollutant multi-city model estimated in Huang et al. (2004).
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm,
4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level
(e.g., 0.084 ppm).
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
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December 2006
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Table 4-38. Estimated Cardiorespiratory Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that
Just Meet the Current and Two Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on
Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations*
Risk Assessment Location
Atlanta
Chicago
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Study Location
Atlanta
19 U.S. Cities
Chicago
19 U.S. Cities
Houston
19 U.S. Cities
Los Angeles
19 U.S. Cities
New York
19 U.S. Cities
Cardiorespiratory Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just
Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
2002 Air Quality
0.7
(-0.2 - 1 .7)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .2)
0.6
(-0.5 - 1 .7)
1
(0.4 - 1 .6)
0.3
(0 - 0.6)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
0.9
(0 - 1 .7)
1
(0.4 - 1 .6)
1.4
(0.5 - 2.4)
1.1
(0.4 - 1 .7)
0.084/4***
0.6
(-0.2 - 1 .4)
0.6
(0.2-1)
0.5
(-0.4 - 1 .4)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .3)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
0.2
(0.1 -0.3)
0.4
(0 - 0.8)
0.5
(0.2-0.8)
1.1
(0.4 - 1 .9)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .3)
0.074/4
0.5
(-0.2-1.1)
0.5
(0.2-0.8)
0.4
(-0.3-1.1)
0.6
(0.2-1)
0.1
(0 - 0.3)
0.1
(0.1 -0.2)
0.2
(0 - 0.5)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
1
(0.3 - 1 .6)
0.7
(0.3-1.1)
0.064/4
0.4
(-0.1 - 0.9)
0.4
(0.1 -0.6)
0.3
(-0.3 - 0.9)
0.5
(0.2-0.8)
0.1
(0-0.1)
0.1
(0-0.1)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.8
(0.2 - 1 .3)
0.6
(0.2-0.9)
*AII results are for cardiovascular and respiratory mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. Results are based on single-pollutant single-city models or a
single-pollutant multi-city model estimated in Huang et al. (2004).
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm,
4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level
(e.g., 0.084 ppm).
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
4-108
December 2006
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Table 4-39. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet
the Current and Two Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3
Concentrations*
Risk Assessment Location
Atlanta
Chicago
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Study Location
Atlanta
19 U.S. Cities
Chicago
19 U.S. Cities
Houston
19 U.S. Cities
Los Angeles
19 U.S. Cities
New York
19 U.S. Cities
Percent of Total Incidence of Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet
the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
2002 Air Quality
1.1%
(-0.4% - 2.6%)
1.2%
(0.5% - 1 .9%)
0.6%
(-0.6% - 1 .8%)
1%
(0.4% - 1 .7%)
0.5%
(-0.1%-1%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
1.1%
(0% - 2.2%)
1.3%
(0.5% -2.1%)
1.4%
(0.5% - 2.4%)
1.1%
(0.4% - 1 .7%)
0.084/4***
0.9%
(-0.3% -2.1%)
0.9%
(0.4% - 1 .5%)
0.5%
(-0.5% - 1 .4%)
0.8%
(0.3% - 1 .3%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.5%
(0% - 1 %)
0.6%
(0.2% - 1 %)
1.1%
(0.4% - 1 .9%)
0.8%
(0.3% - 1 .4%)
0.074/4
0.7%
(-0.2% - 1 .7%)
0.8%
(0.3% - 1 .2%)
0.4%
(-0.4% - 1 .2%)
0.7%
(0.3% -1.1%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
1%
(0.3% - 1 .6%)
0.7%
(0.3% -1.1%)
0.064/4
0.6%
(-0.2% - 1 .3%)
0.6%
(0.2% - 1 %)
0.3%
(-0.3% - 0.9%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.8%
(0.2% - 1 .3%)
0.6%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
*AII results are for cardiovascular and respiratory mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. Results are based on single-pollutant single-city models or a
single-pollutant multi-city model estimated in Huang et al. (2004).
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 - 0.084 ppm,
4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level
(e.g., 0.084 ppm).
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
4-109
December 2006
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Figure 4-18. Estimated Percent Reductions From the Current Standard to Two Alternative
Standards in O3-Related Non-Accidental Mortality, Separately for Each Location (Based on Bell et
al., 2004 - 95 U.S. Cities)*
Figure 4-18a. Based on 2004 Air Quality
w
•o
c
$
o
I
o
B>
c
a
£
O
o
a.
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20% H
-40%
-60%
-80%
-100%
-120%
-140%
-160%
2004 air quality
0.084/4 0.074/4
Alternative Standard
0.064/4
•Atlanta: 9 (3 -15); 0.2% (0.1% - 0.3%)
• Chicago: 33 (11 - 55); 0.2% (0.1 % - 0.3%)
Houston: 11 (4 -18); 0.1 % (0% - 0.2%)
Los Angeles: 67 (22 -111); 0.2% (0.1 % - 0.4%)
• New York: 43 (15 - 72); 0.1 % (0% - 0.2%)
* An 8-hr average standard, denoted m/n is characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily
maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 - 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average.
The 4th daily maximum standards, denoted m/4, require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima
over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm). The incidence (and 95% credible
interval) and percent of total incidence (and 95% credible interval) when O3 concentrations just meet the
current standard are shown for each location in the box below each figure.
Abt Associates Inc.
4-110
December 2006
-------
Figure 4-18b. Based on 2003 Air Quality
100%
ra
•o
(0
I
3
O
E
2
0)
O)
c
ra
O
+*
0)
0)
Q.
2003 air quality
0.084/4 0.074/4
Alternative Standard
0.064/4
- Atlanta: 9 (3 -15); 0.2% (0.1 % - 0.3%)
-Chicago: 55 (18 -91); 0.3% (0.1% -0.4%)
Houston: 9 (3 -15); 0.1 % (0% - 0.2%)
Los Angeles: 47 (16 - 78); 0.2% (0.1 % - 0.3%)
- New York: 54 (18 - 90); 0.2% (0.1 % - 0.3%)
Abt Associates Inc.
4-111
December 2006
-------
Figure 4-18c. Based on 2002 Air Quality
ra
•o
(0
I
3
O
E
2
0)
O)
c
ra
O
+*
0)
0)
Q.
100%
80%
60% H
40%
20% -
0% --
-20%
-40%
-60%
-80%
-100%
-120% -
-140%
-160%
2002 air quality
0.084/4 0.074/4
Alternative Standard
0.064/4
- Atlanta: 14 (5 - 23); 0.3% (0.1 % - 0.5%)
-Chicago: 55 (18 -91); 0.3% (0.1% -0.4%)
Houston: 9 (3 -15); 0.1 % (0% - 0.2%)
Los Angeles: 52 (17 - 86); 0.2% (0.1% - 0.3%)
- New York: 84 (28 -139); 0.3% (0.1 % - 0.4%)
Abt Associates Inc.
4-112
December 2006
-------
4.3 Sensitivity Analyses
Because of the uncertainty surrounding estimates of PRB, we ran two sets of
sensitivity analyses addressing this concern. First, we considered the impact of altering
the estimates of PRB on our estimates of non-accidental mortality risk. Estimates of the
percent of total incidence of non-accidental mortality associated with "as is" Os
concentrations above PRB, based on (1) the original PRB estimates, (2) lower PRB
estimates (the original estimates minus 5 ppb in all locations except Atlanta; the original
estimates minus 10 ppb in Atlanta), and (3) higher PRB estimates (the original estimates
plus 5 ppb in all locations) are shown together in Tables 4-40 and 4-41, based on 2004 air
quality data and 2002 air quality data, respectively. The corresponding results using
incidence and incidence per 100,000 relevant population as the measures of mortality risk
are given in Appendix I, in Tables 1-1 through 1-4.
Corresponding estimates of the percent of total incidence of non-accidental mortality
associated with 63 concentrations that just meet the current (0.084 ppm, 4th daily
maximum) 8-hour O?, standard, and each of two alternative 8-hour Os standards (0.074
ppm, 4th daily maximum and 0.064 ppm, 4th daily maximum) based on each of the three
alternative sets of PRB estimates (original, lower, and higher) are shown in Tables 4-42
through 4-47. Tables 4-42 and 4-43 show estimates for the current standard, based on
adjusting 2004 and 2002 air quality data, respectively. Tables 4-44, and 4-45 are the
corresponding tables for the 0.074 ppm, 4th daily maximum standard, and Tables 4-46,
and 4-47 are the corresponding tables for the 0.064 ppm, 4th daily maximum standard.
The corresponding results using incidence and incidence per 100,000 relevant population
as the measures of mortality risk are given in Appendix I.
Finally, location-specific graphs showing the impact of the alternative PRB estimates
on the estimated percent change from the current standard to alternative standards are
given in Figures 4-19a and 4-19b, based on 2004 and 2002 air quality data, respectively.
In addition, we estimated mortality risk associated with "as is" O3 concentrations
above 0 ppb. The results are shown in Tables 4-48 and 4-49, based on 2004 and 2002 air
quality data, respectively.
Abt Associates Inc. 4-113 December 2006
-------
Table 4-40. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated
Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations:
April - September, 2004*
Location
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St Louis
Washington
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Ito (2003)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Moolgavkar et al. (1995)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
1-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with
O3 Above:**
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations
0.1%
(-0.6% - 0.8%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
1 .9%
(0.6% -3.1%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .2%)
0.4%
(-0.2% - 0.9%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.4%
(-0.1% -0.8%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
1 .4%
(-0.2% -2.9%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .2%)
0.4%
(-0.4% - 1 .2%)
0.4%
(0%-0.7%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
1%
(0.1% -1.9%)
0.9%
(0.3% - 1 .4%)
0.2%
(-0.5% -1%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
1%
(0.6% - 1 .4%)
0.3%
(-0.9% - 1 .4%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.2%
(-0.3% - 0.6%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations Minus
5 ppb***
0.3%
(-1 .3% - 1 .9%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
2.3%
(0.7% - 3.9%)
0.9%
(0.3% - 1 .5%)
0.6%
(-0.4% - 1 .6%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.6%
(-0.2% - 1 .5%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
1 .7%
(-0.3% - 3.6%)
0.9%
(0.3% - 1 .5%)
0.8%
(-0.7% - 2.3%)
0.6%
(0%-1.1%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
1 .2%
(0.1% -2.3%)
1%
(0.3% - 1 .7%)
0.3%
(-0.8% - 1 .4%)
0.7%
(0.2% -1.1%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.4%
(0.2% - 0.7%)
1 .6%
(1%-2.2%)
0.4%
(-1 .2% - 2%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1%)
0.3%
(-0.6% - 1 .2%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations Plus 5
ppb
0.1%
(-0.3% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0%-0.2%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
1 .4%
(0.4% - 2.4%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.5%)
0.1%
(0%-0.2%)
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.4%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
1%
(-0.2% -2.2%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1%)
0.2%
(-0.2% - 0.6%)
0.2%
(0%-0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.9%
(0.1% -1.6%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .2%)
0.1%
(-0.4% - 0.7%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.1%
(0%-0.2%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.6%
(0.3% - 0.8%)
0.2%
(-0.5% - 0.9%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.1%
(-0.1% -0.2%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
*AII results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.
"Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***ln Atlanta, 10 ppb were subtracted from estimated PRB concentrations; in all other locations, 5 ppb were subtracted.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
4-114
December 2006
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Table 4-41. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated
Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations:
April - September, 2002*
Location
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St Louis
Washington
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Ito (2003)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Moolgavkaretal. (1995)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
1-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with
O3 Above:**
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations
0.2%
(-0.8% - 1 .2%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
2.4%
(0.8% - 4%)
0.9%
(0.3% - 1 .5%)
0.8%
(-0.5% -2.1%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.6%
(-0.2% - 1 .4%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
1.9%
(-0.3% -4.1%)
1%
(0.3% - 1 .8%)
0.7%
(-0.7% -2.1%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.9%
(0.1% -1.8%)
0.8%
(0.2% - 1 .3%)
0.2%
(-0.5% - 0.8%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
1.6%
(1%-2.2%)
0.4%
(-1.1% -1.9%)
0.6%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.3%
(-0.5% - 1 .2%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.6%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations Minus
5 ppb***
0.4%
(-1.6% -2.2%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .2%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
2.9%
(0.9% - 4.8%)
1.1%
(0.3% - 1 .8%)
1.1%
(-0.7% - 2.8%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .2%)
0.9%
(-0.3% -2.1%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
2.3%
(-0.4% - 4.8%)
1.2%
(0.4% -2.1%)
1.1%
(-1%-3.2%)
0.5%
(0%-1%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.4%)
1.1%
(0.1% -2.1%)
0.9%
(0.3% - 1 .6%)
0.3%
(-0.7% - 1 .2%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1.1%)
2.2%
(1.4% -3.1%)
0.5%
(-1.5% -2.4%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .2%)
0.5%
(-0.8% - 1 .8%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .2%)
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations Plus 5
ppb
0.1%
(-0.5% - 0.8%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
1.9%
(0.6% - 3.2%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .2%)
0.6%
(-0.4% - 1 .5%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.4%
(-0.1% -0.9%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
1.6%
(-0.3% - 3.4%)
0.9%
(0.3% - 1 .5%)
0.5%
(-0.4% - 1 .3%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.8%
(0.1% -1.4%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1.1%)
0.1%
(-0.3% - 0.5%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
1.1%
(0.7% - 1 .5%)
0.3%
(-0.8% - 1 .3%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.2%
(-0.3% - 0.7%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
*AII results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.
"Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***ln Atlanta, 10 ppb were subtracted from estimated PRB concentrations; in all other locations, 5 ppb were subtracted.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
4-115
December 2006
-------
Table 4-42. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated
Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet
the Current Standard (0.084 ppm, 4th Daily Maximum): April - September, 2004*
Location
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St Louis
Washington
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Ito (2003)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Moolgavkar et al. (1995)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
1-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with
O3 Above:**
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations
0.1%
(-0.4% - 0.6%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.1%
(0%-0.2%)
1 .5%
(0.5% - 2.5%)
0.6%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.3%
(-0.2% - 0.7%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.6%)
0.1%
(0%-0.2%)
1.1%
(-0.2% -2.4%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1%)
0.3%
(-0.3% - 0.9%)
0.2%
(0%-0.5%)
0.1%
(0%-0.2%)
0.8%
(0.1% -1.5%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1.1%)
0.1%
(-0.3% - 0.5%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.1%
(0%-0.2%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.8%
(0.5% -1%)
0.2%
(-0.6% -1%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.1%
(-0.2% - 0.5%)
0.1%
(0%-0.2%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.4%)
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations Minus
5 ppb***
0.3%
(-1.1% -1.6%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
2%
(0.6% - 3.3%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .2%)
0.5%
(-0.3% - 1 .3%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.5%
(-0.2% - 1 .2%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.4%)
1 .5%
(-0.2% -3.1%)
0.8%
(0.2% - 1 .3%)
0.6%
(-0.6% - 1 .8%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.8%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.9%
(0.1% -1.8%)
0.8%
(0.2% - 1 .3%)
0.2%
(-0.5% - 0.8%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
1 .3%
(0.8% - 1 .7%)
0.3%
(-1%-1.6%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.3%
(-0.5% -1%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations Plus 5
ppb
0%
(-0.2% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0%-0.2%)
0.1%
(0%-0.2%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
1%
(0.3% - 1 .7%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.1%
(-0.1% -0.3%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.8%
(-0.1% -1.8%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.8%)
0.1%
(-0.1% -0.4%)
0.1%
(0%-0.2%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.6%
(0.1% -1.2%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0%
(-0.1% -0.2%)
0.1%
(0%-0.2%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.3%
(0.2% - 0.5%)
0.1%
(-0.3% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0%
(-0.1% -0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
"All results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.
"Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***ln Atlanta, 10 ppb were subtracted from estimated PRB concentrations; in all other locations, 5 ppb were subtracted.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
4-116
December 2006
-------
Table 4-43. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated
Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet
the Current Standard (0.084 ppm, 4th Daily Maximum): April - September, 2002*
Location
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St Louis
Washington
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Ito (2003)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Moolgavkaretal. (1995)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
1-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with
O3 Above:**
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations
0.2%
(-0.7% - 0.9%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.4%)
2%
(0.6% - 3.4%)
0.8%
(0.2% - 1 .3%)
0.7%
(-0.4% - 1 .7%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.5%
(-0.2% -1.1%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.4%)
1.7%
(-0.3% - 3.6%)
0.9%
(0.3% - 1 .5%)
0.6%
(-0.6% - 1 .7%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.7%
(0.1% -1.3%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1%)
0.1%
(-0.2% - 0.4%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
1.3%
(0.8% - 1 .8%)
0.3%
(-0.9% - 1 .4%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.3%
(-0.5%- 1%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations Minus
5 ppb***
0.3%
(-1 .4% - 2%)
0.6%
(0.2%- 1%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
2.5%
(0.8% - 4.2%)
0.9%
(0.3% - 1 .6%)
0.9%
(-0.6% - 2.4%)
0.6%
(0.2%- 1%)
0.8%
(-0.3% - 1 .8%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
2%
(-0.3% - 4.3%)
1.1%
(0.3% - 1 .8%)
0.9%
(-0.9% - 2.7%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.9%
(0.1% -1.7%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .2%)
0.2%
(-0.4% - 0.7%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
1.9%
(1.2% -2.6%)
0.4%
(-1 .2% - 2%)
0.6%
(0.2%- 1%)
0.4%
(-0.7% - 1 .6%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1%)
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations Plus 5
ppb
0.1%
(-0.4% - 0.6%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
1.6%
(0.5% - 2.6%)
0.6%
(0.2%- 1%)
0.5%
(-0.3% - 1 .2%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.3%
(-0.1% -0.7%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
1.4%
(-0.2% - 2.9%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .2%)
0.4%
(-0.3% -1%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0.5%
(0%-1%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0%
(-0.1% -0.1%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.9%
(0.5% - 1 .2%)
0.2%
(-0.6% - 0.9%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.1%
(-0.2% - 0.5%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
*AII results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.
"Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***ln Atlanta, 10 ppb were subtracted from estimated PRB concentrations; in all other locations, 5 ppb were subtracted.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
4-117
December 2006
-------
Table 4-44. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated
Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet
An Alternative Standard of 0.074 ppm, 4th Daily Maximum: April - September, 2004*
Location
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St Louis
Washington
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Ito (2003)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Moolgavkar et al. (1995)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
1-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with
O3 Above:**
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations
0.1%
(-0.3% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.1%
(0%-0.2%)
1 .2%
(0.4% - 2%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.5%)
0.1%
(0%-0.2%)
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.4%)
0.1%
(0%-0.2%)
0.9%
(-0.1% -2%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.2%
(-0.2% - 0.7%)
0.2%
(0%-0.3%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.6%
(0.1% -1.2%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.1%
(-0.2% - 0.3%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.1%
(0%-0.2%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.6%
(0.4% - 0.8%)
0.2%
(-0.5% - 0.8%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.1%
(-0.1% -0.3%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations Minus
5 ppb***
0.2%
(-1%-1.5%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.4%)
1 .6%
(0.5% -2.8%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1%)
0.4%
(-0.3% -1.1%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.4%
(-0.1% -1%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
1 .2%
(-0.2% - 2.7%)
0.7%
(0.2% -1.1%)
0.5%
(-0.5% - 1 .5%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.8%
(0.1% -1.5%)
0.7%
(0.2% -1.1%)
0.1%
(-0.4% - 0.7%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
1.1%
(0.7% - 1 .5%)
0.3%
(-0.8% - 1 .4%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.2%
(-0.4% - 0.8%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations Plus 5
ppb
0%
(-0.1% -0.2%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .2%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0.6%
(-0.1% -1.3%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.1%
(-0.1% -0.2%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0.5%
(0% - 0.9%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0%
(-0.1% -0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.1%
(-0.2% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0%-0.2%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
"All results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.
"Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***ln Atlanta, 10 ppb were subtracted from estimated PRB concentrations; in all other locations, 5 ppb were subtracted.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
4-118
December 2006
-------
Table 4-45. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated
Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet
An Alternative Standard of 0.074 ppm, 4th Daily Maximum: April - September, 2002*
Location
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St Louis
Washington
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Ito (2003)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Moolgavkaretal. (1995)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
1-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with
O3 Above:**
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations
0.1%
(-0.5% - 0.8%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
1.7%
(0.5% - 2.9%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1.1%)
0.6%
(-0.4% - 1 .5%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.4%
(-0.1% -0.9%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
1.4%
(-0.2% - 3%)
0.8%
(0.2% - 1 .3%)
0.5%
(-0.5% - 1 .4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.6%
(0.1% -1.1%)
0.5%
(0.1% -0.8%)
0.1%
(-0.1% -0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
1.1%
(0.7% - 1 .5%)
0.2%
(-0.8% - 1 .2%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.2%
(-0.4% - 0.8%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations Minus
5 ppb***
0.3%
(-1 .2% - 1 .8%)
0.6%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
2.2%
(0.7% - 3.6%)
0.8%
(0.3% - 1 .4%)
0.8%
(-0.5% - 2.2%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.7%
(-0.2% - 1 .6%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
1.8%
(-0.3% - 3.7%)
1%
(0.3% - 1 .6%)
0.8%
(-0.8% - 2.4%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.7%
(0.1% -1.4%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1%)
0.1%
(-0.3% - 0.5%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
1.7%
(1.1% -2. 3%)
0.4%
(-1.1% -1.8%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.4%
(-0.6% - 1 .3%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.6%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations Plus 5
ppb
0.1%
(-0.3% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
1.3%
(0.4% -2.1%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.4%
(-0.2%- 1%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.5%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
1.1%
(-0.2% - 2.4%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1%)
0.3%
(-0.2% - 0.8%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.8%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.7%
(0.4% - 0.9%)
0.2%
(-0.5% - 0.8%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.1%
(-0.2% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.4%)
*AII results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.
"Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***ln Atlanta, 10 ppb were subtracted from estimated PRB concentrations; in all other locations, 5 ppb were subtracted.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
4-119
December 2006
-------
Table 4-46. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated
Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet
An Alternative Standard of 0.064 ppm, 4th Daily Maximum: April - September, 2004*
Location
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St Louis
Washington
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Ito (2003)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Moolgavkar et al. (1995)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
1-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with
O3 Above:**
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations
0.1%
(-0.2% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0%-0.2%)
0.1%
(0%-0.2%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.9%
(0.3% - 1 .5%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.1%
(-0.1% -0.4%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.1%
(0%-0.3%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.7%
(-0.1% -1.5%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.1%
(-0.1% -0.4%)
0.1%
(0%-0.2%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0.5%
(0%-0.9%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0%
(-0.1% -0.2%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.1%
(0%-0.2%)
0.4%
(0.3% - 0.6%)
0.1%
(-0.4% - 0.6%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0%
(-0.1% -0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations Minus
5 ppb***
0.2%
(-0.9% - 1 .3%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
1 .3%
(0.4% -2.2%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.3%
(-0.2% - 0.9%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.3%
(-0.1% -0.8%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
1%
(-0.2% - 2.2%)
0.6%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.4%
(-0.4% - 1 .2%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.6%
(0.1% -1.2%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.1%
(-0.2% - 0.4%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.9%
(0.6% - 1 .2%)
0.2%
(-0.7% -1.1%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.2%
(-0.3% - 0.6%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.4%)
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations Plus 5
ppb
0%
(-0.1% -0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0.5%
(0.1% -0.8%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0.4%
(-0.1% -0.9%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0.1%
(0.1% -0.2%)
0%
(-0.1% -0.2%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
"All results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.
"Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***ln Atlanta, 10 ppb were subtracted from estimated PRB concentrations; in all other locations, 5 ppb were subtracted.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
4-120
December 2006
-------
Table 4-47. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated
Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet
An Alternative Standard of 0.064 ppm, 4th Daily Maximum: April - September, 2002*
Location
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St Louis
Washington
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Ito (2003)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Moolgavkaretal. (1995)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
1-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with
O3 Above:**
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations
0.1%
(-0.4% - 0.6%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
1.4%
(0.4% - 2.3%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.5%
(-0.3% - 1 .2%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.3%
(-0.1% -0.7%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
1.2%
(-0.2% - 2.5%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1.1%)
0.4%
(-0.3% -1.1%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.8%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0%
(-0.1% -0.1%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.9%
(0.6% - 1 .3%)
0.2%
(-0.6%- 1%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.2%
(-0.3% - 0.6%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations Minus
5 ppb***
0.2%
(-1.1% -1.6%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
1.9%
(0.6% -3.1%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .2%)
0.7%
(-0.5% - 1 .9%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.6%
(-0.2% - 1 .3%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
1.5%
(-0.2% - 3.2%)
0.8%
(0.3% - 1 .4%)
0.7%
(-0.6% - 2%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.6%
(0.1% -1.1%)
0.5%
(0.1% -0.8%)
0.1%
(-0.2% - 0.3%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
1.5%
(0.9% - 2%)
0.3%
(-1%- 1.6%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.3%
(-0.5% -1.1%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations Plus 5
ppb
0%
(-0.2% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
1%
(0.3% - 1 .6%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.3%
(-0.2% - 0.7%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.9%
(-0.1% -1.9%)
0.5%
(0.1% -0.8%)
0.2%
(-0.2% - 0.5%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.1%
(0.1% -0.2%)
0.5%
(0.3% - 0.7%)
0.1%
(-0.4% - 0.6%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.1%
(-0.1% -0.2%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
*AII results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.
"Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***ln Atlanta, 10 ppb were subtracted from estimated PRB concentrations; in all other locations, 5 ppb were subtracted.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
4-121
December 2006
-------
Table 4-48. Sensitivity Analysis: Estimated Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations Down to Policy Relevant Background (PRB)
Versus 0 ppb: April - September, 2004*
Location
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Ito (2003)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Moolgavkar et al. (1995)
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
1-day lag
Exposure Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Above PRB evels vs. 0 ppb**
Incidence
Above PRB
6
(-26 - 38)
12
(4 - 20)
7
(2-12)
49
(16-81)
394
(125-658)
148
(46 - 250)
27
(-17-69)
17
(6-28)
33
(-11-76)
17
(6 - 28)
128
(-21 -274)
70
(22 - 1 1 7)
40
(-37-116)
35
(2 - 67)
17
(6-28)
93
(9-176)
78
(24-130)
62
(-149-271)
133
(45-221)
60
(20-100)
23
(8-38)
82
(52-112)
Above 0 ppb
25
(-110-156)
50
(17-83)
27
(9 - 45)
220
(74 - 365)
877
(280-1456)
333
(104-559)
116
(-73 - 300)
74
(25-122)
170
(-55 - 390)
87
(29-145)
273
(-45 - 578)
149
(47 - 249)
207
(-195-591)
187
(12-359)
92
(31 -153)
202
(19-382)
169
(53 - 284)
165
(-401 -719)
355
(119-589)
295
(99 - 489)
85
(28-141)
300
(189-409)
Incidence per 100,000 Relevant
Population
Above PRB
0.4
(-1.8-2.6)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .4)
1.0
(0.3 - 1 .7)
0.9
(0.3 - 1 .5)
7.3
(2.3-12.2)
2.8
(0.9-4.6)
1.9
(-1.2-5)
1.2
(0.4-2)
1.6
(-0.5-3.7)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .4)
6.2
(-1-13.3)
3.4
(1.1-5.7)
2.0
(-1 .8 - 5.6)
1.0
(0.1 - 2)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.8)
2.7
(0.3 - 5.2)
2.3
(0.7-3.8)
0.6
(-1.6-2.8)
1.4
(0.5-2.3)
0.7
(0.2-1.1)
1.5
(0.5 - 2.5)
5.4
(3.4 - 7.4)
Above 0 ppb
1.7
(-7.4-10.5)
3.4
(1.1-5.6)
3.9
(1.3-6.5)
4.1
(1.4-6.8)
16.3
(5.2-27.1)
6.2
(1.9-10.4)
8.3
(-5.3-21.5)
5.3
(1.8-8.8)
8.3
(-2.7-18.9)
4.2
(1.4-7)
13.2
(-2.2-28.1)
7.2
(2.3-12.1)
10.1
(-9.4 - 28.7)
5.5
(0.3-10.5)
2.7
(0.9 - 4.5)
6.0
(0.6 - 1 1 .2)
5.0
(1.6-8.3)
1.7
(-4.2 - 7.6)
3.7
(1.3-6.2)
3.3
(1.1-5.5)
5.6
(1.9-9.3)
19.8
(12.5-27)
Percent of Total Incidence
Above PRB
0.1%
(-0.6% - 0.8%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
1 .9%
(0.6% -3.1%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .2%)
0.4%
(-0.2% - 0.9%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.4%
(-0.1% -0.8%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
1 .4%
(-0.2% -2.9%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .2%)
0.4%
(-0.4% - 1 .2%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
1%
(0.1% -1.9%)
0.9%
(0.3% - 1 .4%)
0.2%
(-0.5% -1%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
1%
(0.6% - 1 .4%)
Above 0 ppb
0.5%
(-2.4% - 3.4%)
1.1%
(0.4% - 1 .8%)
1.1%
(0.4% - 1 .8%)
1%
(0.4% - 1 .7%)
4.2%
(1 .3% - 6.9%)
1 .6%
(0.5% -2.7%)
1 .6%
(-1%-4.1%)
1%
(0.3% - 1 .7%)
1 .8%
(-0.6% -4.1%)
0.9%
(0.3% - 1 .5%)
2.9%
(-0.5% -6.1%)
1 .6%
(0.5% -2.6%)
2.2%
(-2.1% -6.3%)
2.1%
(0.1% -3.9%)
1%
(0.3% - 1 .7%)
2.2%
(0.2% - 4.2%)
1 .9%
(0.6% -3.1%)
0.6%
(-1.5% -2. 6%)
1 .3%
(0.4% -2.2%)
0.9%
(0.3% - 1 .6%)
1.1%
(0.4% - 1 .8%)
3.7%
(2.4% -5.1%)
Abt Associates Inc.
4-122
December 2006
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Location
Sacramento
St Louis
Washington
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
Exposure Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Above PRB levels vs. 0 ppb"
Incidence
12
(-36 - 59)
18
(6-29)
3
(-6-13)
3
(1-5)
8
(3-14)
35
(-109-175)
53
(18-87)
21
(-36 - 77)
19
(6-32)
30
(10-49)
Incidence per 100,000 Relevant
Population
1.0
(-3-4.8)
1.4
(0.5-2.4)
1.0
(-1.7-3.6)
0.9
(0.3 - 1 .5)
1.5
(0.5 - 2.4)
2.9
(-8.9-14.3)
4.3
(1.4-7.1)
6.2
(-10.4-22.2)
5.5
(1.9-9.2)
5.2
(1.7-8.6)
Percent of Total Incidence
0.3%
(-0.9% - 1 .4%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.2%
(-0.3% - 0.6%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.8%
(-2.6% - 4.2%)
1 .3%
(0.4% -2.1%)
1.1%
(-1 .8% - 3.9%)
1%
(0.3% - 1 .6%)
1.1%
(0.4% - 1 .8%)
*AII results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
4-123
December 2006
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Table 4-49. Sensitivity Analysis: Estimated Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations Down to Policy Relevant Background (PRB)
Versus 0 ppb: April - September, 2002*
Location
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)
Ito (2003)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)
Moolgavkaretal. (1995)
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
1-day lag
Exposure Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Above PRB levels vs. 0 ppb**
Incidence
Above PRB
9
(-37 - 54)
17
(6 - 29)
10
(3-17)
69
(23-115)
505
(161 -840)
191
(60-321)
61
(-38-157)
38
(13-64)
57
(-18-131)
29
(10-48)
181
(-30 - 385)
99
(31 -165)
69
(-64- 198)
29
(2 - 57)
14
(5 - 24)
85
(8-161)
71
(22-119)
51
(-124-224)
110
(37-184)
105
(35-174)
37
(12-62)
132
(83-180)
Above 0 ppb
28
(-121 -172)
55
(19-91)
31
(10-51)
240
(81 - 398)
988
(317-1635)
376
(118-630)
152
(-96 - 390)
96
(32- 160)
197
(-64 - 450)
101
(34-168)
325
(-54 - 688)
178
(56 - 298)
240
(-226 - 680)
184
(12-353)
91
(31 -151)
196
(18-369)
163
(51 - 274)
152
(-371 - 665)
329
(110-545)
349
(117-579)
100
(34-166)
354
(224-481)
Incidence per 100,000 Relevant
Population
Above PRB
0.6
(-2.5-3.6)
1.2
(0.4-1.9)
1.5
(0.5-2.5)
1.3
(0.4-2.1)
9.4
(3-15.6)
3.6
(1.1-6)
4.3
(-2.7-11.3)
2.8
(0.9-4.6)
2.8
(-0.9-6.3)
1.4
(0.5-2.3)
8.8
(-1.4-18.7)
4.8
(1.5-8)
3.4
(-3.1 -9.6)
0.9
(0.1-1.7)
0.4
(0.1 -0.7)
2.5
(0.2-4.7)
2.1
(0.7-3.5)
0.5
(-1.3-2.4)
1.2
(0.4-1.9)
1.2
(0.4-2)
2.4
(0.8-4.1)
8.7
(5.5-11.9)
Above 0 ppb
1.9
(-8.2-11.6)
3.7
(1.3-6.2)
4.5
(1.5-7.4)
4.5
(1.5-7.4)
18.4
(5.9 - 30.4)
7.0
(2.2- 11.7)
10.9
(-6.9 - 28)
6.9
(2.3- 11.5)
9.6
(-3.1 -21.8)
4.9
(1.6-8.1)
15.8
(-2.6-33.4)
8.6
(2.7- 14.4)
11.6
(-11 -33)
5.4
(0.3-10.4)
2.7
(0.9 - 4.4)
5.7
(0.5-10.8)
4.8
(1.5-8.1)
1.6
(-3.9-7)
3.5
(1.2-5.7)
3.9
(1.3-6.5)
6.6
(2.2-11)
23.3
(14.7-31.7)
Percent of Total Incidence
Above PRB
0.2%
(-0.8% -1.2%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
2.4%
(0.8% - 4%)
0.9%
(0.3% -1.5%)
0.8%
(-0.5% -2.1%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.6%
(-0.2% -1.4%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
1.9%
(-0.3% -4.1%)
1%
(0.3% -1.8%)
0.7%
(-0.7% -2.1%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.9%
(0.1% -1.8%)
0.8%
(0.2% -1.3%)
0.2%
(-0.5% - 0.8%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
1.6%
(1% -2.2%)
Above 0 ppb
0.6%
(-2.6% - 3.7%)
1.2%
(0.4% - 2%)
1.2%
(0.4% - 2%)
1.1%
(0.4%- 1.9%)
4.7%
(1.5% -7.8%)
1.8%
(0.6% - 3%)
2%
(-1.3% -5.3%)
1.3%
(0.4% - 2.2%)
2.1%
(-0.7% - 4.8%)
1.1%
(0.4% -1.8%)
3.5%
(-0.6% - 7.3%)
1.9%
(0.6% - 3.2%)
2.5%
(-2.4% - 7.2%)
2%
(0.1% -3.9%)
1%
(0.3% -1.7%)
2.2%
(0.2% -4.1%)
1.8%
(0.6% - 3%)
0.6%
(-1.4% -2.4%)
1.2%
(0.4% - 2%)
1.1%
(0.4%- 1.8%)
1.2%
(0.4% -2.1%)
4.4%
(2.8% - 6%)
Abt Associates Inc.
4-124
December 2006
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Location
Sacramento
St Louis
Washington
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
Exposure Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Above PRB levels vs. 0 ppb"
Incidence
16
(-48 - 78)
23
(8 - 39)
6
(-11 -23)
6
(2-10)
15
(5 - 25)
39
(-119-191)
57
(19-95)
25
(-42 - 90)
22
(8 - 37)
37
(13-62)
Incidence per 100,000 Relevant
Population
1.3
(-3.9 - 6.4)
1.9
(0.6-3.2)
1.9
(-3.1 -6.7)
1.7
(0.6-2.8)
2.6
(0.9-4.4)
3.2
(-9.8-15.6)
4.7
(1.6-7.8)
7.2
(-12.1 -25.8)
6.4
(2.2- 10.6)
6.5
(2.2- 10.8)
Percent of Total Incidence
0.4%
(-1.1% -1.9%)
0.6%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.3%
(-0.5% -1.2%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.6%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.9%
(-2.8% - 4.5%)
1.4%
(0.5% - 2.3%)
1.2%
(-2.1% -4.5%)
1.1%
(0.4%- 1.9%)
1.4%
(0.5% - 2.3%)
*AII results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
4-125
December 2006
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Figure 4-19. Sensitivity Analysis of Estimated Percent Reduction in O3-Related Non-Accidental
Mortality (Using Bell et al., 2004 - 95 U.S. Cities) From the Current Standard to Alternative 8-hr
Standards and a Recent Year of Air Quality, Using Base Case, Higher, and Lower PRB Estimates*
Figure 4-19a. Based on 2004 O3 Concentrations
Atlanta
« Original PRB Estimates
— ••— Lower PRB Estimates
-•*--Higher PRB Estimates
2004 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4
Alternative 8-Hr Standards
0.064/4
§
100.0%
-50.0%
£ -100.0%
i1
ro
.n
O
-150.0%
-200.0%
-250.0%
Boston
—•—Original PRB Estimates
- *- Lower PRB Estimates
- - * - - Higher PRB Estimates
2004 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4
Alternative 8-Hr Standards
o
I
Chicago
Cleveland
-50 0% -
_9sn n% -
..-•A
A" "* " " " -+
•r"^^M
*f'' i 1
A' — • — Original PRB Estimates
- m- Lower PRB Estimates
• • * - - Higher PRB Estimates
2004 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4
Alternative 8-Hr Standards
0.064/4
jrcent Change from Current Standarc
0 0%
-1500% -
200 0%
-950 0%
A
.^^^^^^
\?^^
— • — Original PRB Estimates
- *- Lower PRB Estimates
- - * - - Higher PRB Estimates
2004 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4
Alternative 8-Hr Standards
Detroit
Houston
100.0%
50.0%
0.0%
-50.0%
O
E
£ -100.0%
i1
ro
£
o
-150.0%
-200.0%
-250.0%
—•—Original PRB Estimates
-••- Lower PRB Estimates
--*--Higher PRB Estimates
2004 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4
Alternative 8-Hr Standards
§
100.0%
50.0%
0.0%
-50.0%
£ -100.0%
i1
ro
£
O
•E
-150.0%
-200.0%
-250.0%
—•—Original PRB Estimates
- *- Lower PRB Estimates
- - * - - Higher PRB Estimates
2004 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4
Alternative 8-Hr Standards
Abt Associates Inc.
4-126
December 2006
-------
Los Angeles
New York
jrcent Change from Current Standard Percent Change from Current Standard Percent Change from Current Standarc
0 0%
50 0%
-1 50 0% -
200 0%
.-••*
^ "^/^
•-" ^
I/ .' — » — Original PRB Estimates
- -m - Lower PRB Estimates
--*•• Higher PRR Fstimates
A
2004 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4
Alternative 8-Hr Standards
Philadelphia
0 0%
50 0%
-1500% -
200 0%
^^^^^e^rrrrr^
V=^^
— » — Original PRB Estimates
- -m- Lower PRB Estimates
- - * • • Higher PRB Estimates
2004 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4
Alternative 8-Hr Standards
St. Louis
50 0%
-1500% -
200 0%
-9^n n%
.-•^-^* 1
m""~^^^*^
— » — Original PRB Estimates
- -m- Lower PRB Estimates
- - * • • Higher PRB Estimates
2004 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4
Alternative 8-Hr Standards
jrcent Change from Current Standard Percent Change from Current Standard Percent Change from Current Standarc
0 0% -
50 0% -
-1 50 0% -
200 0% -
A
-^M^*^^*
r-""^7""
_,.•' — » — Original PRB Estimates
- ••- Lower PRB Estimates
- - * • • Higher PRB Estimates
2004 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4
Alternative 8-Hr Standards
Sacramento
0 0% -
50 0% -
-1500% -
200 0% -
r^——^^^*
*' - -»- Original PRB Estimates
— • — Lower PRB Estimates
- - * • • Higher PRB Estimates
2004 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4
Alternative 8-Hr Standards
Washington, D.C.
0 0% -
50 0% -
-1500% -
200 0% -
-950 0% -
...*
^^^^^^^^
""" ~~ ".• ' '
A* '
— » — Original PRB Estimates
- *- Lower PRB Estimates
- - * • • Higher PRB Estimates
2004 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4
Alternative 8-Hr Standards
* The 8-hr average standards shown in these figures, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of
m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 ~ 0.084 ppm, 4th daily
maximum 8-hr average. The figure also compares the current standard to a recent year of air quality.
Abt Associates Inc.
4-127
December 2006
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Figure 4-19b. Based on 2002 O3 Concentrations
Atlanta
Boston
£
1
!
^
1
re
.c
O
5
a
&
I
1
1
3
O
>t
1
re
6
0)
a
0)
0.
•E
re
•o
1
•E
g
3
1
0)
i1
5
0
"c
0)
a
P^^^fr^^
A' "
— • — Original PRB Estimates
- ••- Lower PRB Estimates
2002 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4
Alternative 8-Hr Standards
Chicago
50 0%
1 50 0% -
l^rr^^***^
— • — Original PRB Estimates
-••- Lower PRB Estimates
2002 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4
Alternative 8-Hr Standards
Detroit
50 0%
50 0% -
1 50 0% -
200 0%
-950 0% -
— • — Original PRB Estimates
-••- Lower PRB Estimates
100.0% -
£
3
O
o
•E
£
3
O
o
•E
...*
-50.0% -
-100.0%
-150.0% -
-200.0%
oi -250.0% -
—»—Original PRB Estimates
- •• - Lower PRB Estimates
- - * - • Higher PRB Estimates
2002 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4
Alternative 8-Hr Standards
Cleveland
50 0%
1 50 0% -
-9^n n% -
_~— ^^^^
t^*~~
— » — Original PRB Estimates
- •• - Lower PRB Estimates
2002 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4
Alternative 8-Hr Standards
Houston
2002 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4
Alternative 8-Hr Standards
Percent Change from Current Standarc
50 0%
50 0% -
1 50 0% -
200 0%
w^^^
v f . •
±- • ' — » — Oriqinal PRB Estimates
- •• - Lower PRB Estimates
2002 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4
Alternative 8-Hr Standards
Abt Associates Inc.
4-128
December 2006
-------
Los Angeles
New York
8
in
o
2
o
•E
50 0% -
0 0% -
_9sn n% -
.-•*
m-^^^3^
^-^7
w" / ;
/ .' — » — Oriainal PRB Estimates
/ -••- Lower PRB Estimates
*'
2002 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4
Alternative 8-Hr Standards
3
in
o
2
o
•E
50 0%
0 0%
1 00 0%
^^^x^^*
*^^*
*
— » — Original PRB Estimates
-•m- Lower PRB Estimates
2002 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4
Alternative 8-Hr Standards
Philadelphia
Sacramento
3
in
o
2
o
•E
50 0% -
0 0% -
_9sn n% -
__— — *-~ ^^^*
A-'"'
— » — Original PRB Estimates
-••- Lower PRB Estimates
2002 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4
Alternative 8-Hr Standards
o
2
S!
0)
0.
50 0%
0 0%
1 00 0%
-9^n n% -
___=«*^= «tws=4
A-'""
— » — Original PRB Estimates
- •• - Lower PRB Estimates
2002 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4
Alternative 8-Hr Standards
St. Louis
in
•E
£
o
"c
0)
Si
0 0%
50 0%
200 0%
-9^0 n%
.--•*
1^-^^*^""°*
i^=——
— » — Original PRB Estimates
-••- Lower PRB Estimates
Washington, D.C.
2002 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4
Alternative 8-Hr Standards
re
c
E
£
o
ti-
re
t
0)
0_
0 0%
50 0%
1 50 0%
->
f-- "- •=••*" '
— • — Original PRB Estimates
- •• - Lower PRB Estimates
2002 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4
Alternative 8-Hr Standards
Abt Associates Inc.
4-129
December 2006
-------
As would be expected, increasing PRB estimates decreased the estimates of
mortality risk associated with "as is" O3 concentrations above PRB levels, and decreasing
PRB estimates increased these estimates. Measured as percent of total incidence,
estimates of Os-related mortality changed by only a few tenths of a percent, which is not
surprising since most base case estimates were themselves less than 1%. In Chicago, for
example, the estimate of O3-related mortality changed from 0.2% to 0.4% of total
incidence when 5 ppb was subtracted from PRB levels and to 0.1% when 5 ppb was
added to PRB levels, based on Bell et al. - 95 U.S. Cities (2004). The largest increase in
mortality measured as percent of total incidence when PRB levels were reduced was
0.6% (from 1% to 1.6%), in Philadelphia, based on Moolgavkar et al. (1995). The largest
decrease in mortality measured as a percent of total incidence when PRB levels were
increased was 0.5% (from 1.9% to 1.4%), in Chicago, based on Schwartz (2004).
The results for estimates of mortality incidence associated with 2002 "as is" O3
concentrations above PRB levels were similar. The largest increase in mortality
measured as percent of total incidence when PRB levels were reduced was 0.6% (from
1.6% to 2.2%), in Philadelphia, based on Moolgavkar et al. (1995). The largest decrease
in mortality measured as percent of total incidence when PRB levels were increased was
0.5% (from 1.6% to 1.1%) in Philadelphia, based on Moolgavkar et al. (1995) and 0.5%
(from 2.4% to 1.9%) in Chicago, based on Schwartz (2004).
The impact of changing the assumed PRB levels was often substantial when
measured as the percent change in estimated number of (Vrelated deaths, because (V
related mortality was generally low under the base case PRB assumptions. A change
from an estimated 3 deaths to 4 deaths, for example, is a 33% increase in the estimated
number of deaths but only one additional death. When PRB estimates were decreased,
estimates of mortality incidence associated with 2004 "as is" 63 concentrations above
PRB levels increased from 18% in Houston (from 78 to 92), based on Schwartz - 14 U.S.
Cities (2004), to 133% in Atlanta and St. Louis (from 6 to 14, based on Bell et al. (2004),
and from 12 to 28, based on Bell et al. - 95 U.S. Cities (2004), in Atlanta; and from 3 to
7, based on Bell et al. (2004), in St. Louis). When PRB estimates were increased,
estimates of mortality incidence associated with 2004 "as is" Os concentrations above
PRB levels decreased from 16% in Houston (from 93 to 78), based on Schwartz (2004),
to 67% in St. Louis (from 3 to 1), based on Bell et al. (2004).
The results for estimates of mortality incidence associated with 2002 "as is" Os
concentrations above PRB levels were similar. When PRB estimates were decreased,
estimates of mortality incidence associated with 2002 "as is" O3 concentrations above
PRB levels increased from 17% in Detroit (from 181 to 212), based on Schwartz (2004),
to 94% in Atlanta (from 17 to 33), based on Bell et al. - 95 U.S. Cities (2004). When
PRB estimates were increased, estimates of mortality incidence associated with 2004 "as
is" Oj concentrations above PRB levels decreased from 17% in Detroit (from 181 to 150),
based on Schwartz (2004), to 50% in St. Louis (from 6 to 3), based on Bell et al. - 95
U.S. Cities (2004).
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Because O3 concentrations just meeting the current standard are substantially
lower than "as is" O3 concentrations, a change in the assumed PRB levels had a greater
impact on the estimates of mortality associated with O3 concentrations just meeting the
current standard, when measured as percent change in the estimate. Similarly, changing
the estimates of PRB tended to have progressively greater impacts on the estimates of
mortality risk associated with O3 concentrations just meeting progressively more stringent
standards. For example, decreasing the estimates of PRB in Boston induced a 57%
increase in the estimate of mortality incidence (from 7 to 11) associated with 2004 "as is"
O3 concentrations above PRB levels, based on Bell et al. - 95 U.S. Cities (2004). The
same change in PRB estimates induced a 67% increase (from 6 to 10) for O3
concentrations just meeting the current standard (0.084, 4th daily maximum), a 100%
increase (from 4 to 8) for O3 concentrations just meeting the 0.074, 4th daily maximum
standard, and a 133% increase (from 3 to 7) for O3 concentrations just meeting the 0.064,
4th daily maximum standard.
When measured as percent of total incidence, however, these changes usually
were not sufficient to be detectable after rounding to one decimal place. Using 2004 air
quality, for example, there was no difference in estimated percent of total incidence (after
rounding) when PRB levels were reduced by 5 ppb when considering
• mortality associated with "as is" O3 concentrations above PRB versus mortality
associated with O3 concentrations just meeting the current standard above PRB in 70
percent of estimates (compare Tables 4-40 and 4-42);
• mortality associated with O3 concentrations just meeting the current standard above
PRB versus mortality associated with O3 concentrations just meeting the 0.074, 4th
daily maximum standard in 68 percent of estimates (compare Tables 4-42 and 4-44);
• mortality associated with O3 concentrations just meeting the 0.074, 4th daily
maximum standard above PRB versus mortality associated with O3 concentrations
just meeting the 0.064, 4th daily maximum standard in 79 percent of estimates
(compare Tables 4-44 and 4-46).
The corresponding percentages when using 2002 air quality data are 64 percent, 79
percent, and 64 percent, respectively.
Finally, our estimates of non-accidental mortality risk associated with "as is" O3
concentrations above 0 ppb, rather than above estimated PRB levels, suggest that, on
average across the days in the ozone season, the differences between PRB O3
concentrations and 0 ppb are substantially greater than the differences between O3
concentrations to which people are exposed ("as is" O3 concentrations) and estimated
PRB levels - i.e., the bulk of the ambient O3 is PRB O3. The estimated incidence of non-
accidental mortality associated with 2004 "as is" O3 concentrations above 0 ppb versus
above PRB levels were from 113% higher in Detroit (273 versus 128, using Schwartz
(2004), and 149 versus 70, using Schwartz - 14 U.S. Cities (2004)) to 600% higher in St.
Louis (21 versus 3, using Bell et al. (2004)). The estimated incidence of non-accidental
mortality associated with 2002 "as is" O3 concentrations above 0 ppb versus above PRB
levels were from 80% higher in Detroit (325 versus 181, using Schwartz (2004), and 178
versus 99, using Schwartz - 14 U.S. Cities (2004)) to 550% higher in Houston (91 versus
14, using Bell et al. - 95 U.S. Cities (2004)). We note, however, that because the ranges
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of Os concentrations over which Os-mortality concentration-response functions have been
estimated do not go down to 0 ppb, there is substantially less information about the
relationship between mortality and exposure to 63 concentrations in the range between 0
ppb and PRB levels. There is therefore increased uncertainty about whether any
mortality can be attributed to exposure to these very low Os concentrations above 0 ppb
versus above PRB levels.
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Ozone Health Risk Assessment for
Selected Urban Areas: Appendices
My 2007
Prepared for
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Research Triangle Park, NC
Prepared by
Ellen Post
Andreas Maier
Hardee Mahoney
Work funded through
Contract No. 68-D-03-002
Work Assignments 3-39 and 4-56
Harvey Richmond, Work Assignment Manager
Nancy Riley, Project Officer
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Table of Contents
APPENDIX A: AIR QUALITY
APPENDIX B: INFORMATION ON CONCENTRATION-RESPONSE FUNCTIONS
B.I TABLES OF STUDY-SPECIFIC INFORMATION B-l
B.2 CONCENTRATION-RESPONSE FUNCTIONS AND HEALTH IMPACT FUNCTIONS B-8
B.2.1 Log-linear B-8
B.2.2 Linear B-8
B.2.3 Logistic B-9
B.3 THE CALCULATION OF "SHRINKAGE" ESTIMATES FROM THE LOCATION-SPECIFIC
ESTIMATES REPORTED IN HUANG ETAL. (2004) B-ll
APPENDIX C: ADDITIONAL LUNG FUNCTION RESULTS
C. 1 LUNG FUNCTION RESPONSE AMONG ACTIVE CHILDREN ASSOCIATED WITH EXPOSURE
TO "As Is" O3 CONCENTRATIONS OVER BACKGROUND O3 CONCENTRATIONS C-l
C.2 LUNG FUNCTION RESPONSE AMONG ACTIVE CHILDREN ASSOCIATED WITH EXPOSURE
TO O3 CONCENTRATIONS THAT JUST MEET THE CURRENT AND ALTERNATIVE DAILY
MAXIMUM 8-HouR STANDARDS C-5
C.3 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: IMPACT OF ALTERNATIVE ESTIMATES OF EXPOSURE-RESPONSE
FUNCTION ON LUNG FUNCTION RESPONSE ESTIMATES C-25
APPENDIX D: ESTIMATED HEALTH RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH "AS IS" O3
CONCENTRATIONS: APRIL - SEPTEMBER
D.I FIGURES D-l
D.2 TABLES D-8
APPENDIX E: ESTIMATED HEALTH RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH O3
CONCENTRATIONS THAT JUST MEET THE CURRENT 8-HOUR DAILY
MAXIMUM STANDARD: APRIL - SEPTEMBER
E.I FIGURES E-l
E.2 TABLES E-8
APPENDIX F: CALCULATION OF RISK ABOVE POLICY RELEVANT
BACKGROUND
APPENDIX G: EXPLANATION OF HOW A DISTRIBUTED LAG MODEL CAN
BE USED IN THE RISK ASSESSMENT
APPENDIX H: ADDITIONAL RESULTS FOR FIVE LOCATIONS FOR THE
CURRENT STANDARD AND TWO ALTERNATIVE STANDARDS, BASED ON
2002, 2003, AND 2004 AIR QUALITY DATA
APPENDIX I: ADDITIONAL PRB SENSITIVITY ANALYSES
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List of Tables
Table A-l. Monitor-Specific O3 Air Quality Information: Atlanta, GA A-l
Table A-2. Monitor-Specific O3 Air Quality Information: Boston, MA A-l
Table A-3. Monitor-Specific O3 Air Quality Information: Chicago, IL A-2
Table A-4. Monitor-Specific O3 Air Quality Information: Cleveland, OH A-3
Table A-5. Monitor-Specific O3 Air Quality Information: Detroit, MI A-3
Table A-6. Monitor-Specific O3 Air Quality Information: Houston, TX A-4
Table A-7. Monitor-Specific O3 Air Quality Information: Los Angeles, CA A-5
Table A-8. Monitor-Specific O3 Air Quality Information: New York, NY A-6
Table A-9. Monitor-Specific O3 Air Quality Information: Philadelphia, PA A-6
Table A-10. Monitor-Specific O3 Air Quality Information: Sacramento, CA A-7
Table A-l 1. Monitor-Specific 63 Air Quality Information: St. Louis, MO A-8
Table A-12. Monitor-Specific O3 Air Quality Information: Washington, D.C A-8
Table A-13. Composite Monitor Statistics: 2004 A-9
Table A-14. Composite Monitor Statistics: 2003 A-9
Table A-15. Composite Monitor Statistics: 2002 A-10
Table B-l. Study-Specific Information for O3 Studies in Atlanta, GA B-l
Table B-2. Study-Specific Information for 63 Studies in Boston, MA B-l
Table B-3. Study-Specific Information for O3 Studies in Chicago, IL B-2
Table B-4. Study-Specific Information for O3 Studies in Cleveland, OH B-2
Table B-5. Study-Specific Information for O3 Studies in Detroit, MI B-3
Table B-6. Study-Specific Information for O3 Studies in Houston, TX B-4
Table B-7. Study-Specific Information for O3 Studies in Los Angeles, CA B-5
Table B-8. Study-Specific Information for O3 Studies in New York, NY B-6
Table B-9. Study-Specific Information for O3 Studies in Philadelphia, PA B-6
Table B-10. Study-Specific Information for O3 Studies in Sacramento, CA B-7
Table B-l 1. Study-Specific Information for O3 Studies in St. Louis, MO B-7
Table B-12. Study-Specific Information for O3 Studies in Washington, D.C B-7
TableB-13. Notation B-12
Table C-l. Estimated Number and Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function Response
Associated with Exposure to "As Is" O3 Concentrations Over Background O3
Concentrations Among Active Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exercise,
for Location-Specific O3 Seasons: 2004 O3 Concentrations C-l
Table C-2. Estimated Number and Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function Response
Associated with Exposure to "As Is" O3 Concentrations Over Background O3
Concentrations Among Active Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exercise,
for Location-Specific O3 Seasons: 2002 O3 Concentrations C-2
Table C-3. Number and Percent of Active Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate
Exercise Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response Associated
with Exposure to "As Is" O3 Concentrations Over Background O3 Concentrations, for
Location-Specific O3 Seasons: 2004 O3 Concentrations C-3
Table C-4. Number and Percent of Active Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate
Exercise Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response Associated
Abt Associates Inc. ii December 2006
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with Exposure to "As Is" O3 Concentrations Over Background O3 Concentrations, for
Location-Specific O3 Seasons: 2002 O3 Concentrations C-4
Table C-5. Estimated Number of Occurrences of Lung Function Response Associated
with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily
Maximum 8-Hour Standards Among Active Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in
Moderate Exercise, for Location-Specific 63 Seasons: Based on Adjusting 2004 63
Concentrations C-5
Table C-6. Estimated Number of Occurrences of Lung Function Response Associated
with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily
Maximum 8-Hour Standards Among Active Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in
Moderate Exercise, for Location-Specific O3 Seasons: Based on Adjusting 2002 O3
Concentrations C-7
Table C-7. Estimated Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function Response Associated with
Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily
Maximum 8-Hour Standards Among Active Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in
Moderate Exercise, for Location-Specific O3 Seasons: Based on Adjusting 2004 O3
Concentrations C-9
Table C-8. Estimated Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function Response Associated with
Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily
Maximum 8-Hour Standards Among Active Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in
Moderate Exercise, for Location-Specific O3 Seasons: Based on Adjusting 2002 O3
Concentrations C-ll
Table C-9. Number of Active Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exercise
Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response Associated with
Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily
Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for Location-Specific O3 Seasons: Based on Adjusting
2004 O3 Concentrations C-13
Table C-10. Number of Active Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exercise
Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response Associated with
Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily
Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for Location-Specific O3 Seasons: Based on Adjusting
2002 O3 Concentrations C-15
Table C-ll. Percent of Active Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exercise
Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response Associated with
Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily
Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for Location-Specific O3 Seasons: Based on Adjusting
2004 O3 Concentrations C-17
Table C-12. Percent of Active Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exercise
Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response Associated with
Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily
Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for Location-Specific O3 Seasons: Based on Adjusting
2002 O3 Concentrations C-19
Table C-13. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Exposure-Response
Function on Number of All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion
Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response (Decrease in
FEVi>=15%) Associated with Exposure to a Recent Year of Air Quality and with
Abt Associates Inc. Hi December 2006
-------
Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily
Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for Location-Specific O3 Seasons: Based on Adjusting
2004 O3 Concentrations C-25
Table C-14. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Exposure-Response
Function on Number of All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion
Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response (Decrease in
FEVi>=15%) Associated with Exposure to a Recent Year of Air Quality and with
Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily
Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for Location-Specific O3 Seasons: Based on Adjusting
2002 O3 Concentrations C-26
Table C-15. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Exposure-Response
Function on Number of Asthmatic Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate
Exertion Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response (Decrease in
FEVi>=10%) Associated with Exposure to a Recent Year of Air Quality and with
Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily
Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for Location-Specific O3 Seasons: Based on Adjusting
2004 O3 Concentrations C-27
Table C-16. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Exposure-Response
Function on Number of Asthmatic Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate
Exertion Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response (Decrease in
FEVi>=10%) Associated with Exposure to a Recent Year of Air Quality and with
Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily
Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for Location-Specific O3 Seasons: Based on Adjusting
2002 O3 Concentrations C-28
Table D-l. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: Atlanta,
GA, April - September, 2004 D-8
Table D-2. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: Atlanta,
GA, April - September, 2002 D-9
Table D-3. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: Boston,
MA, April - September, 2004 D-10
Table D-4. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: Boston,
MA, April - September, 2002 D-ll
Table D-5. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: Chicago,
IL, April - September, 2004 D-12
Table D-6. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: Chicago,
IL, April - September, 2002 D-13
Table D-7. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: Cleveland,
OH, April - September, 2004 D-14
Table D-8. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: Cleveland,
OH, April - September, 2002 D-15
Table D-9. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: Detroit,
MI, April - September, 2004 D-16
Table D-10. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: Detroit,
MI, April - September, 2002 D-17
Table D-ll. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: Houston,
TX, April - September, 2004 D-18
Abt Associates Inc. iv December 2006
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Table D-12. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: Houston,
TX, April - September, 2002 D-19
Table D-13. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: Los
Angeles, CA, April - September, 2004 D-20
Table D-14. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: Los
Angeles, CA, April - September, 2002 D-21
Table D-15. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations:
Philadelphia, PA, April - September, 2004 D-22
Table D-16. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations:
Philadelphia, PA, April - September, 2002 D-23
Table D-17. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations:
Sacramento, CA, April - September, 2004 D-24
Table D-18. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations:
Sacramento, CA, April - September, 2002 D-25
Table D-19. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: St. Louis,
MO, April - September, 2004 D-26
Table D-20. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: St.
Louis, MO, April - September, 2002 D-27
Table D-21. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations:
Washington, D.C., April - September, 2004 D-28
Table D-22. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations:
Washington, D.C., April - September, 2002 D-29
Table E-l. Estimated Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the
Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Atlanta, GA, April -
September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations E-8
Table E-2. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population
Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour
Daily Maximum Standards: Atlanta, GA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004
O3 Concentrations E-9
Table E-3. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3
Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum
Standards: Atlanta, GA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3
Concentrations E-10
Table E-4. Estimated Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the
Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Atlanta, GA, April -
September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations E-ll
Table E-5. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population
Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour
Daily Maximum Standards: Atlanta, GA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002
O3 Concentrations E-12
Table E-6. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3
Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum
Standards: Atlanta, GA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3
Concentrations E-l 3
Abt Associates Inc. v December 2006
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Table E-7. Estimated Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the
Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Boston, MA, April -
September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations E-14
Table E-8. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population
Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour
Daily Maximum Standards: Boston, MA, April - September, Based on Adjusting
2004 O3 Concentrations E-15
Table E-9. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3
Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum
Standards: Boston, MA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3
Concentrations E-16
Table E-10. Estimated Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the
Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Boston, MA, April -
September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations E-17
Table E-l 1. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population
Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour
Daily Maximum Standards: Boston, MA, April - September, Based on Adjusting
2002 O3 Concentrations E-18
Table E-12. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3
Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum
Standards: Boston, MA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3
Concentrations E-l 9
Table E-13. Estimated Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the
Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Chicago, IL, April -
September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations E-20
Table E-14. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population
Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour
Daily Maximum Standards: Chicago, IL, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004
O3 Concentrations E-21
Table E-15. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3
Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum
Standards: Chicago, IL, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3
Concentrations E-22
Table E-16. Estimated Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the
Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Chicago, IL, April -
September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations E-23
Table E-17. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population
Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour
Daily Maximum Standards: Chicago, IL, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002
O3 Concentrations E-24
Table E-18. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3
Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum
Standards: Chicago, IL, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3
Concentrations E-25
Abt Associates Inc. vi December 2006
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Table E-19. Estimated Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the
Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Cleveland, OH, April -
September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations E-26
Table E-20. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population
Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour
Daily Maximum Standards: Cleveland, OH, April - September, Based on Adjusting
2004 O3 Concentrations E-27
Table E-21. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3
Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum
Standards: Cleveland, OH, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3
Concentrations E-28
Table E-22. Estimated Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the
Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Cleveland, OH, April -
September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations E-29
Table E-23. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population
Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour
Daily Maximum Standards: Cleveland, OH, April - September, Based on Adjusting
2002 O3 Concentrations E-30
Table E-24. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3
Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum
Standards: Cleveland, OH, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3
Concentrations E-31
Table E-25. Estimated Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the
Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Detroit, MI, April -
September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations E-32
Table E-26. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population
Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour
Daily Maximum Standards: Detroit, MI, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004
O3 Concentrations E-34
Table E-27. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3
Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum
Standards: Detroit, MI, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3
Concentrations E-36
Table E-28. Estimated Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the
Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Detroit, MI, April -
September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations E-38
Table E-29. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population
Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour
Daily Maximum Standards: Detroit, MI, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002
O3 Concentrations E-40
Table E-30. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3
Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum
Standards: Detroit, MI, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3
Concentrations E-42
Abt Associates Inc. vii December 2006
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Table E-31. Estimated Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the
Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Houston, TX, April -
September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations E-44
Table E-32. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population
Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour
Daily Maximum Standards: Houston, TX, April - September, Based on Adjusting
2004 O3 Concentrations E-45
Table E-33. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3
Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum
Standards: Houston, TX, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3
Concentrations E-46
Table E-34. Estimated Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the
Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Houston, TX, April -
September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations E-47
Table E-3 5. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population
Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour
Daily Maximum Standards: Houston, TX, April - September, Based on Adjusting
2002 O3 Concentrations E-48
Table E-36. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3
Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum
Standards: Houston, TX, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3
Concentrations E-49
Table E-37. Estimated Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the
Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Los Angeles, CA, April -
September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations E-50
Table E-38. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population
Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour
Daily Maximum Standards: Los Angeles, CA, April - September, Based on Adjusting
2004 O3 Concentrations E-51
Table E-3 9. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3
Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum
Standards: Los Angeles, CA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3
Concentrations E-52
Table E-40. Estimated Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the
Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Los Angeles, CA, April -
September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations E-53
Table E-41. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population
Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour
Daily Maximum Standards: Los Angeles, CA, April - September, Based on Adjusting
2002 O3 Concentrations E-54
Table E-42. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3
Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum
Standards: Los Angeles, CA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3
Concentrations E-55
Abt Associates Inc. viii December 2006
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Table E-43. Estimated Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the
Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Philadelphia, PA, April -
September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations E-56
Table E-44. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population
Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour
Daily Maximum Standards: Philadelphia, PA, April - September, Based on Adjusting
2004 O3 Concentrations E-57
Table E-45. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3
Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum
Standards: Philadelphia, PA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3
Concentrations E-58
Table E-46. Estimated Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the
Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Philadelphia, PA, April -
September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations E-59
Table E-47. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population
Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour
Daily Maximum Standards: Philadelphia, PA, April - September, Based on Adjusting
2002 O3 Concentrations E-60
Table E-48. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3
Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum
Standards: Philadelphia, PA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3
Concentrations E-61
Table E-49. Estimated Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the
Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Sacramento, CA, April -
September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations E-62
Table E-50. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population
Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour
Daily Maximum Standards: Sacramento, CA, April - September, Based on Adjusting
2004 O3 Concentrations E-63
Table E-51. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3
Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum
Standards: Sacramento, CA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3
Concentrations E-64
Table E-52. Estimated Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the
Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Sacramento, CA, April -
September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations E-65
Table E-53. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population
Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour
Daily Maximum Standards: Sacramento, CA, April - September, Based on Adjusting
2002 O3 Concentrations E-66
Table E-54. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3
Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum
Standards: Sacramento, CA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3
Concentrations E-67
Abt Associates Inc. ix December 2006
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Table E-55. Estimated Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the
Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: St. Louis, MO, April -
September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations E-68
Table E-56. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population
Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour
Daily Maximum Standards: St. Louis, MO, April - September, Based on Adjusting
2004 O3 Concentrations E-69
Table E-57. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3
Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum
Standards: St. Louis, MO, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3
Concentrations E-70
Table E-58. Estimated Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the
Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: St. Louis, MO, April -
September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations E-71
Table E-59. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population
Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour
Daily Maximum Standards: St. Louis, MO, April - September, Based on Adjusting
2002 O3 Concentrations E-72
Table E-60. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3
Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum
Standards: St. Louis, MO, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3
Concentrations E-73
Table E-61. Estimated Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the
Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Washington, D.C., April
- September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations E-74
Table E-62. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population
Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour
Daily Maximum Standards: Washington, D.C., April - September, Based on
Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations E-75
Table E-63. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3
Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum
Standards: Washington, D.C., April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3
Concentrations E-76
Table E-64. Estimated Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the
Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Washington, D.C., April
- September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations E-77
Table E-65. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population
Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour
Daily Maximum Standards: Washington, D.C., April - September, Based on
Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations E-78
Table E-66. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3
Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum
Standards: Washington, D.C., April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3
Concentrations E-79
Abt Associates Inc. x December 2006
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Table H-l. Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3
Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Two Alternative 8-Hour Daily
Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on Adjusting 2003 O3 Concentrations ... H-l
Table H-2. Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant
Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Two
Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based Adjusting
on 2003 O3 Concentrations H-2
Table H-3. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated
with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Two Alternative 8-Hour Daily
Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on Adjusting 2003 O3 Concentrations ... H-3
Table H-4. Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3
Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Two Alternative 8-Hour Daily
Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations ... H-4
Table H-5. Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant
Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Two
Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based Adjusting
on 2004 O3 Concentrations H-5
Table H-6. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated
with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Two Alternative 8-Hour Daily
Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations ... H-6
Table H-7. Estimated Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that
Just Meet the Current and Two Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April
- September, Based on Adjusting 2003 O3 Concentrations H-7
Table H-8. Estimated Cardiorespiratory Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population
Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Two Alternative 8-
Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on Adjusting 2003 O3
Concentrations H-8
Table H-9. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Cardiorespiratory Mortality
Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Two Alternative 8-
Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on Adjusting 2003 O3
Concentrations H-9
Table H-10. Estimated Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations
that Just Meet the Current and Two Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards:
April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 (^Concentrations H-10
Table H-l 1. Estimated Cardiorespiratory Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population
Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Two Alternative 8-
Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3
Concentrations H-ll
Table H-12. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Cardiorespiratory Mortality
Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Two Alternative 8-
Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3
Concentrations H-12
Table 1-1. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant
Background (PRB) on Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated
with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: April - September, 2004 1-1
Abt Associates Inc. xi December 2006
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Table 1-2. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant
Background (PRB) on Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated
with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: April - September, 2002 1-2
Table 1-3. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant
Background (PRB) on Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000
Relevant Population Associated with "As Is" 63 Concentrations: April - September,
2004 1-3
Table 1-4. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant
Background (PRB) on Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000
Relevant Population Associated with "As Is" 63 Concentrations: April - September,
2002 1-4
Table 1-5. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant
Background (PRB) on Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated
with 63 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current Standard (0.084 ppm, 4th Daily
Maximum): April - September, 2004 1-5
Table 1-6. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant
Background (PRB) on Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated
with 63 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current Standard (0.084 ppm, 4th Daily
Maximum): April - September, 2002 1-6
Table 1-7. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant
Background (PRB) on Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated
with 63 Concentrations that Just Meet An Alternative Standard of 0.074 ppm, 4th
Daily Maximum: April - September, 2004 1-7
Table 1-8. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant
Background (PRB) on Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated
with 63 Concentrations that Just Meet An Alternative Standard of 0.074 ppm, 4th
Daily Maximum: April - September, 2002 1-8
Table 1-9. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant
Background (PRB) on Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated
with 63 Concentrations that Just Meet An Alternative Standard of 0.064 ppm, 4th
Daily Maximum: April - September, 2004 1-9
Table 1-10. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant
Background (PRB) on Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated
with 63 Concentrations that Just Meet An Alternative Standard of 0.064 ppm, 4th
Daily Maximum: April - September, 2002 1-10
Table 1-11. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant
Background (PRB) on Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000
Relevant Population Associated with 63 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current
Standard (0.084 ppm, 4th Daily Maximum): April- September, 2004 1-11
Table 1-12. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant
Background (PRB) on Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000
Relevant Population Associated with 63 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current
Standard (0.084 ppm, 4th Daily Maximum): April - September, 2002 1-12
Table 1-13. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant
Background (PRB) on Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000
Abt Associates Inc. xii December 2006
-------
Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet An Alternative
Standard of 0.074 ppm, 4th Daily Maximum : April - September, 2004 1-13
Table 1-14. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant
Background (PRB) on Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000
Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet An Alternative
Standard of 0.074 ppm, 4th Daily Maximum : April - September, 2002 1-14
Table 1-15. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant
Background (PRB) on Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000
Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet An Alternative
Standard of 0.064 ppm, 4th Daily Maximum: April - September, 2004 1-15
Table 1-16. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant
Background (PRB) on Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000
Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet An Alternative
Standard of 0.064 ppm, 4th Daily Maximum: April - September, 2002 1-16
Abt Associates Inc. xiii December 2006
-------
List of Figures
Figure C-l. Percent Reductions in Aggregate Numbers (Across All Locations) of
Occurrences of Lung Function Response Among Active School Age Children when
O3 Concentrations are Reduced from Those Just Meeting the Current Standard to
Those that Would Just Meet Each Alternative Standard, for Each of the Three
Definitions of Response C-21
Figure C-2. Percent Reductions of Occurrences of Decrement in FEVi >15% Among
Active School Age Children when Oj Concentrations are Reduced from Those Just
Meeting the Current Standard to Those that Would Just Meet Each Alternative
Standard, Separately for Each Location C-22
Figure C-3. Percent Reductions in Aggregate Numbers (Across All Locations) of Active
School Age Children Experiencing at Least One Occurrence of Lung Function
Response when Os Concentrations are Reduced from Those Just Meeting the Current
Standard to Those that Would Just Meet Each Alternative Standard, for Each of the
Three Definitions of Response C-23
Figure C-4. Percent Reductions in Numbers of Active School Age Children Experiencing
at Least One Decrement in FEVi >15% when Os Concentrations are Reduced from
Those Just Meeting the Current Standard to Those that Would Just Meet Each
Alternative Standard, Separately for Each Location C-24
Figure D-l. Estimated Annual Cases of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant
Population Associated with Short-Term Exposure to Os Above Background: Single-
Pollutant, Single-City Models (April - September) D-l
Figure D-2. Estimated Annual Cases of Cardiorespiratory Mortality per 100,000 Relevant
Population Associated with Short-Term Exposure to Os Above Background (April -
September): Single-Pollutant vs. Multi-Pollutant Models [Huang et al. (2004),
additional pollutants, from left to right: none, CO, NO2, PMio, SO2] D-2
Figure D-3. Estimated Annual Cases of (Non-Accidental) Mortality per 100,000 Relevant
Population Associated with Short-Term Exposure to Os Above Background (April -
September): Single-City Model (left bar) vs. Multi-City Model (right bar) D-3
Figure D-4. Estimated Annual Cases of Cardiorespiratory Mortality per 100,000 Relevant
Population Associated with Short-Term Exposure to O3 Above Background (April -
September): Single-City Model (left bar) vs. Multi-City Model (right bar) - Based on
Huang etal. (2004) D-4
Figure D-5. Estimated Annual Cases of (Unscheduled) Hospital Admissions for
Pneumonia in Detroit per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with Short-Term
Exposure to Os Above Background (April - September): Different Lag Models -
Based on Ito (2003) [bars from left to right are 0-day, 1-day, 2-day, and 3-day lag
models] D-5
Figure D-6. Estimated Annual Cases of Non-Accidental Mortality Per 100,000 Relevant
Population Associated with Short-Term Exposure to "As Is" Os Above Background
for the Period April - September (Based on Bell et al., 2004 - 95 U.S. Cities) - Total
and Contribution of 24-Hour Os Ranges D-6
Abt Associates Inc. xiv December 2006
-------
Figure D-7. Estimated Annual Cases of Cardiorespiratory Mortality Per 100,000 Relevant
Population Associated with Short-Term Exposure to "As Is" 63 Above Background
for the Period April - September (Based on Huang et al., 2004 - 19 U.S. Cities) -
Total and Contribution of 24-Hour Os Ranges D-7
Figure E-l. Estimated Annual Cases of (Non-Accidental) Mortality per 100,000 Relevant
Population Associated with Short-Term Exposure to 63 Above Background When the
Current 8-Hour Standard is Just Met: Single-Pollutant, Single-City Models (April -
September) E-l
Figure E-2. Estimated Annual Cases of Cardiorespiratory Mortality per 100,000 Relevant
Population Associated with Short-Term Exposure to 63 Above Background When the
Current 8-Hour Standard is Just Met (April - September): Single-Pollutant vs. Multi-
Pollutant Models [Huang et al. (2004), additional pollutants, from left to right: none,
CO, N02, PMio, S02] E-2
Figure E-3. Estimated Annual Cases of (Non-Accidental) Mortality per 100,000 Relevant
Population Associated with Short-Term Exposure to OB Above Background When the
Current 8-Hour Standard is Just Met (April - September): Single-City Model (left
bar) vs. Multi-City Model (right bar) E-3
Figure E-4. Estimated Annual Cases of Cardiorespiratory Mortality per 100,000 Relevant
Population Associated with Short-Term Exposure to Os Above Background When the
Current 8-Hour Standard is Just Met (April - September): Single-City Model (left
bar) vs. Multi-City Model (right bar) - Based on Huang et al. (2004) E-4
Figure E-5. Estimated Annual Cases of (Unscheduled) Hospital Admissions for
Pneumonia in Detroit per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with Short-Term
Exposure to Os Above Background When the Current 8-Hour Standard is Just Met
(April - September): Different Lag Models - Based on Ito (2003) [bars from left to
right are 0-day, 1-day, 2-day, and 3-day lag models] E-5
Figure E-6. Estimated Annual Cases of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant
Population Associated with Short-Term Exposure to Os Above Policy Relevant
Background for the Period April - September When the Current 8-Hour Standard is
Just Met (Based on Bell et al., 2004 - 95 U.S. Cities) - Total and Contribution of 24-
Hour Os Ranges E-6
Figure E-7. Estimated Annual Cases of Cardiorespiratory Mortality per 100,000 Relevant
Population Associated with Short-Term Exposure to O3 Above Policy Relevant
Background for the Period April - September When the Current 8-Hour Standard is
Just Met (Based on Huang et al., 2004 - 19 U.S. Cities) - Total and Contribution of
24-Hour O3 Ranges E-7
Abt Associates Inc. xv December 2006
-------
Appendix A: Air Quality
-------
Table A-1. Monitor-Specific O3 Air Quality Information: Atlanta, GA
AIRS Monitor ID
1305700011
1306700031
1307700021
1308500012
1308900021
1308930011
1309700041
1311300011
1312100551
1313500021
1315100021
1322300031
1324700011
Average:
Fourth
2002
0.089
0.100
0.099
0.088
0.095
0.090
0.098
0.088
0.100
0.089
0.099
0.099
0.099
0.095
Daily Maximum 8-Hour
Average (ppm)
2003 2004
0.084 0.073
0.077 0.083
0.077 0.068
0.080 0.084
0.091 0.088
0.085 0.080
0.077 0.084
0.091 0.089
0.088 0.092
0.082 0.085
0.083 0.073
0.078 0.087
0.083 0.082
Design Value*:
Average of the 3
Year-Specific
Values (ppm)
0.085
0.086
0.077
0.086
0.089
0.087
0.083
0.093
0.089
0.088
0.085
0.088
0.093
The design value is the
fourth daily maximum 8
maximum of the monitor-specific averages of the annual
-hour average over the 3 year period.
Table A-2. Monitor-Specific O3 Air Quality Information: Boston, MA
AIRS Monitor ID
2500900051
2500920061
2500940041
2501711021
2502130031
2502500411
2502500421
2502700151
Average:
Fourth
2002
0.088
0.100
0.094
0.096
0.107
0.102
0.074
0.091
0.094
Daily Maximum 8-Hour
Average (ppm)
2003 2004
0.079 0.081
0.080 0.077
0.073 0.070
0.088 0.078
0.078 0.079
0.074 0.064
0.080 0.074
0.079 0.075
Design Value*:
Average of the 3
Year-Specific
Values (ppm)
0.086
0.083
0.079
0.091
0.086
0.07
0.081
0.091
*The design value is the
fourth daily maximum 8
maximum of the monitor-specific averages of the annual
-hour average over the 3 year period.
Abt Associates Inc.
A-1
December 2006
-------
Table A-3. Monitor-Specific O3 Air Quality Information: Chicago, IL
AIRS Monitor ID
1703100011
1703100321
1703100422
1703100501
1703100641
1703100721
1703100761
1703110032
1703116011
1703140021
1703140071
1703142011
1703142012
1703170021
1703180031
1704360011
1708900051
1709710021
1709710071
1709730011
1711100011
1719710081
1719710111
1808900221
1808900241
1808900301
1808920081
1809100051
1809100101
1812700202
1812700241
1812700261
5505900021
5505900191
5505900221
Average:
Fourth
2002
0.094
0.096
0.103
0.084
0.085
0.085
0.092
0.081
0.084
0.093
0.087
0.067
0.091
0.074
0.084
0.082
0.090
0.100
0.087
0.090
0.086
0.087
0.094
0.086
0.101
0.107
0.100
0.097
0.101
0.100
0.110
0.116
0.096
0.092
Daily Maximum
Average (ppm)
2003
0.077
0.080
0.069
0.067
0.075
0.071
0.075
0.070
0.073
0.080
0.082
0.066
0.076
0.074
0.078
0.079
0.077
0.073
0.076
0.081
0.081
0.082
0.084
0.079
0.077
0.082
0.085
0.088
0.088
0.077
8-Hour
2004
0.065
0.067
0.054
0.060
0.068
0.067
0.067
0.059
0.064
0.067
0.051
0.071
0.065
0.069
0.068
0.071
0.068
0.063
0.068
0.064
0.064
0.067
0.070
0.069
0.072
0.078
0.066
Design Value*:
Average of the 3
Year-Specific
Values (ppm)
0.078
0.081
0.068
0.073
0.076
0.074
0.071
0.076
0.078
0.081
0.071
0.075
0.077
0.083
0.079
0.075
0.076
0.078
0.083
0.086
0.082
0.084
0.094
0.094
The design value is the
fourth daily maximum 8
maximum of the monitor-specific averages of the annual
-hour average over the 3 year period.
Abt Associates Inc.
A-2
December 2006
-------
Table A-4. Monitor-Specific O3 Air Quality Information: Cleveland, OH
AIRS Monitor ID
3900710011
3903500341
3903500641
3903550021
3905500041
3908500031
3908530021
3909300171
3910300031
3913310011
3915300201
Average:
Fourth
2002
0.103
0.090
0.090
0.098
0.115
0.104
0.088
0.099
0.091
0.097
0.103
0.098
Daily Maximum 8-Hour
Average (ppm)
2003 2004
0.099 0.081
0.076 0.057
0.079 0.063
0.089 0.077
0.097 0.075
0.092 0.079
0.080 0.076
0.085 0.074
0.086 0.077
0.091 0.081
0.089 0.077
0.088 0.074
Design Value*:
Average of the 3
Year-Specific
Values (ppm)
0.094
0.074
0.077
0.088
0.095
0.091
0.081
0.086
0.084
0.089
0.089
0.095
The design value is the
fourth daily maximum 8
maximum of the monitor-specific averages of the annual
-hour average over the 3 year period.
Table A-5. Monitor-Specific O3 Air Quality Information: Detroit, Ml
AIRS Monitor ID
260490021 1
260492001 1
2609900091
2609910031
2612500012
2614700051
2616100081
2616300012
2616300161
2616300192
Average:
Fourth
2002
0.088
0.089
0.095
0.092
0.093
0.100
0.091
0.088
0.092
0.083
0.091
Daily Maximum
Average (ppm)
2003
0.087
0.091
0.102
0.101
0.090
0.086
0.091
0.085
0.084
0.098
0.092
8-Hour
2004
0.075
0.077
0.081
0.071
0.075
0.074
0.071
0.065
0.066
0.066
0.072
Design Value*:
Average of the 3
Year-Specific
Values (ppm)
0.083
0.085
0.092
0.088
0.086
0.086
0.084
0.079
0.08
0.082
0.092
*The design value is the
fourth daily maximum 8
maximum of the monitor-specific averages of the annual
-hour average over the 3 year period.
Abt Associates Inc.
A-3
December 2006
-------
Table A-6. Monitor-Specific O3 Air Quality Information: Houston, TX
AIRS Monitor ID
4803910032
4803910041
4803910161
4816700141
4816710022
4820100242
4820100263
4820100292
4820100461
4820100472
4820100512
4820100551
4820100621
4820100661
4820100701
4820100751
4820110151
4820110342
4820110353
4820110391
4820110411
4820110501
4833900781
Average:
Fourth
2002
0.095
0.092
0.093
0.083
0.096
0.088
0.098
0.078
0.072
0.101
0.094
0.095
0.084
0.088
0.078
0.093
0.092
0.095
0.090
0.094
0.082
0.090
Daily Maximum
Average (ppm)
2003
0.097
0.092
0.082
0.095
0.098
0.096
0.093
0.082
0.103
0.107
0.094
0.081
0.100
0.096
0.108
0.102
0.105
0.113
0.092
0.094
0.097
8-Hour
2004
0.103
0.081
0.088
0.096
0.085
0.090
0.084
0.083
0.095
0.104
0.097
0.097
0.078
0.093
0.093
0.091
0.092
0.097
0.097
0.080
0.091
Design Value*:
Average of the 3
Year-Specific
Values (ppm)
0.097
0.091
0.095
0.09
0.094
0.085
0.079
0.099
0.101
0.095
0.087
0.088
0.089
0.095
0.096
0.101
0.094
0.085
0.101
The design value is the
fourth daily maximum 8
maximum of the monitor-specific averages of the annual
-hour average over the 3 year period.
Abt Associates Inc.
A-4
December 2006
-------
Table A-7. Monitor-Specific O3 Air Quality Information: Los Angeles, CA
AIRS Monitor ID
0603700021
0603700161
0603701131
0603710021
0603711031
0603712011
0603713011
0603716011
0603717011
0603720051
0603740021
060375001 1
0603750051
0603760121
0603790331
0605900071
0605910031
0605920221
060595001 1
0606500121
0606520021
060655001 1
060656001 1
060658001 1
060659001 1
0606590031
0607100011
0607100051
0607100121
0607100171
0607103061
0607110042
0607112341
0607120021
0607140011
0607140031
0607190021
0607190041
0611100051
0611100071
0611100091
0611110041
0611120021
0611120031
0611130011
Average:
Fourth
2002
0.097
0.111
0.073
0.091
0.077
0.111
0.049
0.074
0.099
0.095
0.059
0.064
0.131
0.102
0.069
0.066
0.081
0.071
0.113
0.097
0.109
0.107
0.109
0.104
0.092
0.131
0.115
0.087
0.106
0.105
0.089
0.114
0.113
0.117
0.101
0.105
0.076
0.080
0.087
0.097
0.092
0.064
0.064
0.093
Daily Maximum
Average (ppm)
2003
0.104
0.123
0.083
0.096
0.082
0.119
0.057
0.082
0.109
0.101
0.063
0.070
0.137
0.103
0.080
0.079
0.095
0.080
0.127
0.100
0.105
0.116
0.120
0.112
0.088
0.130
0.103
0.084
0.104
0.114
0.087
0.132
0.110
0.137
0.111
0.123
0.087
0.093
0.093
0.093
0.074
0.069
0.099
8-Hour
2004
0.092
0.095
0.076
0.089
0.078
0.101
0.065
0.079
0.095
0.093
0.070
0.085
0.107
0.095
0.088
0.076
0.085
0.075
0.112
0.094
0.099
0.095
0.111
0.100
0.060
0.082
0.122
0.097
0.087
0.085
0.102
0.082
0.111
0.099
0.119
0.102
0.112
0.086
0.086
0.092
0.092
0.069
0.065
0.091
Design Value*:
Average of the 3
Year-Specific
Values (ppm)
0.097
0.109
0.077
0.092
0.079
0.11
0.057
0.078
0.101
0.096
0.064
0.125
0.1
0.079
0.073
0.087
0.075
0.117
0.097
0.104
0.106
0.113
0.105
0.087
0.127
0.105
0.086
0.098
0.107
0.086
0.119
0.107
0.124
0.104
0.113
0.084
0.088
0.094
0.092
0.069
0.066
0.127
The design value is the
fourth daily maximum 8
maximum of the monitor-specific averages of the annual
i-hour average over the 3 year period.
Abt Associates Inc.
A-5
December 2006
-------
Table A-8. Monitor-Specific O3 Air Quality Information: New York, NY
AIRS Monitor ID
3600500831
3600501101
3602700071
3607150011
3607900051
3608100981
3608101241
3608500671
3610300021
3610300041
3610300092
3611110051
3611920041
Average:
Fourth
2002
0.096
0.089
0.111
0.082
0.102
0.082
0.089
0.099
0.108
0.090
0.103
0.084
0.102
0.095
Daily Maximum
Average (ppm)
2003
0.079
0.082
0.081
0.087
0.082
0.072
0.086
0.086
0.094
0.082
0.102
0.082
0.091
0.085
8-Hour
2004
0.074
0.069
0.076
0.078
0.082
0.064
0.075
0.083
0.081
0.079
0.076
0.078
0.076
Design Value*:
Average of the 3
Year-Specific
Values (ppm)
0.083
0.08
0.089
0.082
0.088
0.072
0.083
0.089
0.094
0.094
0.08
0.09
0.094
The design value is the
fourth daily maximum 8
maximum of the monitor-specific averages of the annual
-hour average over the 3 year period.
Table A-9. Monitor-Specific O3 Air Quality Information: Philadelphia, PA
AIRS Monitor ID
4201700121
4202900501
4202901001
4204500021
4209100131
4210100041
4210100141
4210100241
4210101361
Average:
Fourth
2002
0.111
0.104
0.112
0.106
0.101
0.082
0.098
0.110
0.094
0.102
Daily Maximum 8-Hour
Average (ppm)
2003 2004
0.087 0.082
0.085
0.085 0.085
0.080 0.081
0.085 0.083
0.069 0.054
0.083 0.077
0.082 0.091
0.070 0.073
0.081 0.078
Design Value*:
Average of the 3
Year-Specific
Values (ppm)
0.093
0.094
0.089
0.089
0.068
0.086
0.094
0.079
0.094
*The design value is the
fourth daily maximum 8
maximum of the monitor-specific averages of the annual
-hour average over the 3 year period.
Abt Associates Inc.
A-6
December 2006
-------
Table A-10. Monitor-Specific O3 Air Quality Information: Sacramento, CA
AIRS Monitor ID
0601700101
0601700111
0601700121
0601700201
0605700051
0605700071
0605710011
0606100021
0606100041
0606100061
0606100071
0606130011
0606700021
0606700061
0606700101
0606700111
0606700121
0606700131
0606750031
0611300041
0611310031
Average:
Fourth
2002
0.098
0.067
0.077
0.111
0.099
0.093
0.065
0.101
0.101
0.095
0.097
0.095
0.105
0.083
0.069
0.104
0.079
0.097
0.076
0.088
0.090
Daily Maximum
Average (ppm)
2003
0.096
0.065
0.075
0.106
0.098
0.090
0.094
0.089
0.085
0.068
0.086
0.097
0.076
0.087
0.098
0.075
0.097
0.077
0.082
0.086
8-Hour
2004
0.089
0.073
0.089
0.093
0.085
0.092
0.087
0.082
0.076
0.083
0.067
0.077
0.087
0.067
0.089
0.071
0.069
0.081
Design Value*:
Average of the 3
Year-Specific
Values (ppm)
0.094
0.075
0.102
0.096
0.089
0.095
0.092
0.087
0.085
0.095
0.075
0.077
0.096
0.073
0.094
0.074
0.079
0.102
The design value is the
fourth daily maximum 8
maximum of the monitor-specific averages of the annual
-hour average over the 3 year period.
Abt Associates Inc.
A-7
December 2006
-------
Table A-11. Monitor-Specific O3 Air Quality Information: St. Louis, MO
AIRS Monitor ID
1708310011
1711700021
1711900081
1711910091
1711920072
1711930071
1716300102
2909900121
2918310021
2918310041
2918900041
2918900061
2918930011
2918950011
2918970031
2951000071
2951000721
2951000861
Average:
Fourth
2002
0.100
0.085
0.094
0.090
0.090
0.084
0.093
0.093
0.099
0.098
0.098
0.094
0.094
0.095
0.093
0.090
0.081
0.098
0.093
Daily Maximum
Average (ppm)
2003
0.083
0.077
0.089
0.088
0.082
0.083
0.079
0.082
0.091
0.090
0.088
0.086
0.082
0.088
0.088
0.084
0.071
0.090
0.085
8-Hour
2004
0.073
0.068
0.074
0.078
0.068
0.073
0.073
0.070
0.077
0.076
0.070
0.067
0.067
0.068
0.069
0.058
0.072
0.071
Design Value*:
Average of the 3
Year-Specific
Values (ppm)
0.085
0.076
0.085
0.085
0.08
0.08
0.081
0.081
0.089
0.088
0.085
0.082
0.081
0.083
0.083
0.07
0.086
0.089
The design value is the
fourth daily maximum 8
maximum of the monitor-specific averages of the annual
-hour average over the 3 year period.
Table A-12. Monitor-Specific O3 Air Quality Information: Washington, D.C.
AIRS Monitor ID
1100100251
1100100411
1100100431
Average:
Fourth Daily Maximum 8-Hour
Average (ppm)
2002 2003 2004
0.097 0.079 0.080
0.102 0.082 0.070
0.106 0.081 0.081
0.102 0.081 0.077
Design Value*:
Average of the 3
Year-Specific
Values (ppm)
0.085
0.084
0.089
0.089
*The design value is the maximum of the monitor-specific averages of the annual
fourth daily maximum 8-hour average over the 3 year period.
Abt Associates Inc.
A-8
December 2006
-------
Table A-13. Composite Monitor Statistics: 2004
Urban Area
Atlanta
Boston 1*
Boston 2*
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles 1**
Los Angeles 2**
New York 1***
New York 2***
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, D.C.
24-Hour Average (ppm)
Minimum Mean Maximum
0.0091 0.0279 0.0504
0.0060 0.0276 0.0571
0.0114 0.0310 0.0603
0.0110 0.0270 0.0453
0.0080 0.0257 0.0445
0.0074 0.0239 0.0459
0.0075 0.0262 0.0572
0.0204 0.0338 0.0491
0.0249 0.0398 0.0568
0.0055 0.0242 0.0494
0.0052 0.0241 0.0491
0.0037 0.0272 0.0486
0.0164 0.0323 0.0462
0.0078 0.0248 0.0425
0.0055 0.0283 0.0526
1-Hour Maximum (ppm)
Minimum Mean Maximum
0.0170 0.0578 0.1267
0.0185 0.0433 0.1060
0.0218 0.0450 0.0956
0.0152 0.0432 0.0758
0.0123 0.0404 0.0743
0.0140 0.0430 0.0793
0.0155 0.0510 0.1243
0.0351 0.0634 0.1005
0.0410 0.0656 0.0992
0.0128 0.0449 0.0920
0.0115 0.0447 0.0883
0.0090 0.0492 0.0915
0.0307 0.0593 0.0953
0.0175 0.0468 0.0890
0.0140 0.0521 0.1020
8-Hour Maximum (ppm)
Minimum Mean Maximum
0.0146 0.0499 0.1103
0.0128 0.0379 0.0904
0.0194 0.0411 0.0842
0.0119 0.0389 0.0679
0.0090 0.0360 0.0676
0.0094 0.0375 0.0730
0.0137 0.0443 0.1082
0.0319 0.0555 0.0867
0.0387 0.0597 0.0888
0.0085 0.0378 0.081 1
0.0076 0.0378 0.0806
0.0057 0.0426 0.0775
0.0241 0.0520 0.0806
0.0114 0.0409 0.0688
0.0103 0.0450 0.0916
•"Boston 1" denotes Suffolk County; "Boston 2" denotes Essex, Middlesex, Norfolk, Suffolk, and Worcester Counties.
*"Los Angeles 1" denotes Los Angeles County; "Los Angeles 2" denotes Los Angeles, Riverside, San Bernardino, and Orange Counties.
**"New York 1" denotes the 5 boroughs of New York City — Brooklyn, Queens, Manhattan, Bronx, and Staten Island. "New York 2" denotes the 5
boroughs plus Westchester County.
Table A-14. Composite Monitor Statistics: 2003
Urban Area
Atlanta
Boston 1*
Boston 2*
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles 1**
Los Angeles 2**
New York 1***
New York 2***
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, D.C.
24-Hour Average (ppm)
Minimum
0.0035
0.0106
0.0104
0.0084
0.0073
0.0074
0.0065
0.0155
0.0266
0.0054
0.0061
0.0052
0.0217
0.0050
0.0053
Mean Maximum
0.0265
0.0305
0.0339
0.0287
0.0298
0.0279
0.0270
0.0326
0.0396
0.0251
0.0259
0.0285
0.0352
0.0285
0.0276
0.0513
0.0693
0.0693
0.0554
0.0676
0.0550
0.0612
0.0537
0.0612
0.0598
0.0593
0.0725
0.0554
0.0534
0.0661
1-Hour Maximum (ppm)
Minimum
0.0083
0.0190
0.0190
0.0158
0.0143
0.0163
0.0181
0.0274
0.0390
0.0146
0.0140
0.0155
0.0343
0.0117
0.0110
Mean Maximum
0.0574 0.1133
0.0469 0.1110
0.0482 0.1089
0.0458 0.0819
0.0483 0.1013
0.0503 0.1010
0.0534 0.1161
0.0650 0.1099
0.0670 0.1044
0.0458 0.1078
0.0462 0.1057
0.0495 0.1074
0.0640 0.1069
0.0519 0.1200
0.0516 0.1153
8-Hour Maximum (ppm)
Minimum
0.0042
0.0143
0.0145
0.0111
0.0102
0.0150
0.0119
0.0245
0.0361
0.0095
0.0088
0.0085
0.0319
0.0093
0.0078
Mean Maximum
0.0492
0.0407
0.0439
0.0410
0.0427
0.0442
0.0455
0.0557
0.0605
0.0386
0.0395
0.0430
0.0563
0.0462
0.0441
0.1003
0.0955
0.0958
0.0793
0.0919
0.0945
0.1008
0.0952
0.0954
0.0991
0.0985
0.0988
0.0950
0.1064
0.1092
•"Boston 1" denotes Suffolk County; "Boston 2" denotes Essex, Middlesex, Norfolk, Suffolk, and Worcester Counties.
*"Los Angeles 1" denotes Los Angeles County; "Los Angeles 2" denotes Los Angeles, Riverside, San Bernardino, and Orange Counties.
**"New York 1" denotes the 5 boroughs of New York City — Brooklyn, Queens, Manhattan, Bronx, and Staten Island. "New York 2" denotes the 5
boroughs plus Westchester County.
Abt Associates Inc.
A-9
December 2006
-------
Table A-15. Composite Monitor Statistics: 2002
Urban Area
Atlanta
Boston 1*
Boston 2*
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles 1**
Los Angeles 2**
New York 1***
New York 2***
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, D.C.
24-Hour Average (ppm)
Minimum Mean Maximum
0.0102 0.0308 0.0559
0.0133 0.0314 0.0783
0.0132 0.0359 0.0852
0.0101 0.0295 0.0545
0.0103 0.0338 0.0685
0.0085 0.0277 0.0572
0.0089 0.0258 0.0568
0.0158 0.0313 0.0492
0.0192 0.0385 0.0586
0.0062 0.0280 0.0565
0.0075 0.0286 0.0576
0.0069 0.0322 0.0619
0.0182 0.0353 0.0604
0.0058 0.0289 0.0585
0.0095 0.0357 0.0708
1-Hour Maximum (ppm)
Minimum Mean Maximum
0.0193 0.0623 0.1307
0.0210 0.0503 0.1185
0.0213 0.0526 0.1213
0.0206 0.0488 0.0986
0.0177 0.0548 0.1070
0.0170 0.0516 0.0987
0.0163 0.0492 0.1167
0.0283 0.0613 0.1009
0.0292 0.0652 0.0967
0.0130 0.0529 0.1294
0.0133 0.0537 0.1333
0.0133 0.0573 0.1235
0.0242 0.0647 0.1090
0.0157 0.0556 0.1127
0.0193 0.0627 0.1430
8-Hour Maximum (ppm)
Minimum Mean Maximum
0.0157 0.0540 0.1166
0.0178 0.0434 0.1128
0.0169 0.0479 0.1162
0.0137 0.0437 0.0899
0.0138 0.0488 0.1044
0.0151 0.0450 0.0923
0.0131 0.0427 0.1017
0.0252 0.0525 0.0842
0.0247 0.0587 0.0881
0.0088 0.0448 0.0999
0.0088 0.0458 0.1032
0.0091 0.0501 0.0999
0.0212 0.0564 0.0954
0.0087 0.0484 0.1000
0.0164 0.0548 0.1210
•"Boston 1" denotes Suffolk County; "Boston 2" denotes Essex, Middlesex, Norfolk, Suffolk, and Worcester Counties.
*"Los Angeles 1" denotes Los Angeles County; "Los Angeles 2" denotes Los Angeles, Riverside, San Bernardino, and Orange Counties.
**"New York 1" denotes the 5 boroughs of New York City — Brooklyn, Queens, Manhattan, Bronx, and Staten Island. "New York 2" denotes the 5
boroughs plus Westchester County.
Abt Associates Inc.
A-10
December 2006
-------
Appendix B: Information on Concentration-Response Functions
-------
B.1 Tables of Study-Specific Information
Table B-1. Study-Specific Information for O3 Studies in Atlanta, GA
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities
(2004)
Huang et al. (2004)
Huang etal. -19 US
Cities (2004)
Huang etal. -19 US
Cities (2004)
Huang etal. -19 US
Cities (2004)
Huang etal. -19 US
Cities (2004)
Huang etal. -19 US
Cities (2004)
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-accidental
Mortality, non-accidental
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
ICD-9 Codes
<800
<800
390-448; 490-496;
487; 480-486; 507.
390-448; 490-496;
487; 480-486; 507.
390-448; 490-496;
487; 480-486; 507.
390-448; 490-496;
487; 480-486; 507.
390-448; 490-496;
487; 480-486; 507.
390-448; 490-496;
487; 480-486; 507.
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Model
log-linear
log-linear
log-linear
log-linear
log-linear
log-linear
log-linear
log-linear
Other
Pollutants
in Model
none
none
none
none
PM10
NO2
SO2
CO
Observed
Concentrations** (ppb)
min.
0
NA
0
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
max.
71
NA
71
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
O3 Coefficient
0.00020
0.00039
0.00120
0.00124
0.00074
0.00060
0.00051
0.00069
Lower Bound
-0.00084
0.00013
-0.00039
0.00047
-0.00033
0.00011
0.00001
0.00020
Upper Bound
0.00123
0.00065
0.00279
0.00201
0.00171
0.00109
0.00102
0.00117
*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to
**Rounded to the nearest ppb.
NA denotes "not available."
Oo.
Table B-2. Study-Specific Information for O3 Studies in Boston, MA
Study
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities
(2004)
Gent et al. (2003)
Gent et al. (2003)
Gent et al. (2003)
Gent et al. (2003)
Gent et al. (2003)
Gent et al. (2003)
Gent et al. (2003)
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-accidental
Respiratory symptoms —
chest tightness
Respiratory symptoms —
chest tightness
Respiratory symptoms —
chest tightness
Respiratory symptoms —
chest tightness
Respiratory symptoms —
shortness of breath
Respiratory symptoms —
shortness of breath
Respiratory symptoms —
wheeze
ICD-9 Codes
<800
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Ages
all
0-12
0-12
0-12
0-12
0-12
0-12
0-12
Lag
distributed lag
1-day lag
0-day lag
1-day lag
1-day lag
1-day lag
1-day lag
0-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
8 hr max.
1 hr max.
8 hr max.
1 hr max.
Model
log-linear
logistic
logistic
logistic
logistic
logistic
logistic
logistic
Other
Pollutants
in Model
none
none
PM2.5
PM2.5
none
none
none
PM2.5
Observed
Concentrations** (ppb)
min.
NA
27
27
27
21
27
21
21
max.
NA
126
126
126
100
126
100
100
O3 Coefficient
0.00039
0.00462
0.00771
0.00701
0.00570
0.00398
0.00525
0.00600
Lower Bound
0.00013
0.00000
0.00331
0.00262
0.00172
0.00040
0.00098
0.00209
Upper Bound
0.00065
0.00784
0.01220
0.01153
0.00965
0.00743
0.00952
0.01002
*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to
**Rounded to the nearest ppb.
O,.
Abt Associates Inc.
B-1
December 2006
-------
Table B-3. Study-Specific Information for O3 Studies in Chicago, IL
Study
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities
(2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities
(2004)
Huang et al. (2004)
Huang etal. -19 US
Cities (2004)
Huang etal. -19 US
Cities (2004)
Huang etal. -19 US
Cities (2004)
Huang etal. -19 US
Cities (2004)
Huang etal. -19 US
Cities (2004)
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-accidental
Mortality, non-accidental
Mortality, non-accidental
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
ICD-9 Codes
<800
<800
<800
390-448; 490-496;
487; 480-486; 507.
390-448; 490-496;
487; 480-486; 507.
390-448; 490-496;
487; 480-486; 507.
390-448; 490-496;
487; 480-486; 507.
390-448; 490-496;
487; 480-486; 507.
390-448; 490-496;
487; 480-486; 507.
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
Lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Model
log-linear
logistic
logistic
log-linear
log-linear
log-linear
log-linear
log-linear
log-linear
Other
Pollutants
in Model
none
none
none
none
none
PM10
NO2
SO2
CO
Observed
Concentrations** (ppb)
min.
NA
NA
NA
0
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
max.
NA
NA
NA
65
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
O3 Coefficient
0.00039
0.00099
0.00037
0.00075
0.00124
0.00074
0.00060
0.00051
0.00069
Lower Bound
0.00013
0.00031
0.00012
-0.00067
0.00047
-0.00033
0.00011
0.00001
0.00020
Upper Bound
0.00065
0.00166
0.00062
0.00218
0.00201
0.00171
0.00109
0.00102
0.00117
*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
**Rounded to the nearest ppb.
NA denotes "not available."
Table B-4. Study-Specific Information for O3 Studies in Cleveland, OH
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities
(2004)
Huang et al. (2004)
Huang etal. -19 US
Cities (2004)
Huang etal. -19 US
Cities (2004)
Huang etal. -19 US
Cities (2004)
Huang etal. -19 US
Cities (2004)
Huang etal. -19 US
Cities (2004)
Schwartz etal. (1996)
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-accidental
Mortality, non-accidental
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Hospital admissions,
respiratory illness
ICD-9 Codes
<800
<800
390-448; 490-496;
487; 480-486; 507.
390-448; 490-496;
487; 480-486; 507.
390-448; 490-496;
487; 480-486; 507.
390-448; 490-496;
487; 480-486; 507.
390-448; 490-496;
487; 480-486; 507.
390-448; 490-496;
487; 480-486; 507.
460-519
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
65+
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
avg of 1 -day
and 2-day lags
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
Model
log-linear
log-linear
log-linear
log-linear
log-linear
log-linear
log-linear
log-linear
log-linear
Other
Pollutants
in Model
none
none
none
none
PM10
NO2
SO2
CO
none
Observed
Concentrations** (ppb)
min.
2
NA
2
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
max.
75
NA
75
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
O3 Coefficient
0.00061
0.00039
0.00148
0.00124
0.00074
0.00060
0.00051
0.00069
0.00169
Lower Bound
-0.00038
0.00013
-0.00004
0.00047
-0.00033
0.00011
0.00001
0.00020
0.00039
Upper Bound
0.00161
0.00065
0.00299
0.00201
0.00171
0.00109
0.00102
0.00117
0.00291
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Rounded to the nearest ppb.
NA denotes "not available."
Abt Associates Inc.
B-2
December 2006
-------
Table B-5. Study-Specific Information for O3 Studies in Detroit, Ml
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz- 14 US Cities
(2004)
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Huang et al. (2004)
Huang et al. - 19 US Cities
(2004)
Huang et al. - 19 US Cities
(2004)
Huang et al. - 19 US Cities
(2004)
Huang et al. - 19 US Cities
(2004)
Huang et al. - 19 US Cities
(2004)
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-accidental
Mortality, non-accidental
Mortality, non-accidental
Mortality, non-accidental
Mortality, non-accidental
Mortality, respiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Hospital admissions
(unscheduled), pneumonia
Hospital admissions
(unscheduled), pneumonia
Hospital admissions
(unscheduled), pneumonia
Hospital admissions
(unscheduled), pneumonia
Hospital admissions
(unscheduled), COPD
Hospital admissions
(unscheduled), COPD
Hospital admissions
(unscheduled), COPD
Hospital admissions
(unscheduled), COPD
ICD-9 Codes
<800
<800
<800
<800
<800
460-519
390-448; 490-496;
487; 480-486; 507.
390-448; 490-496;
487; 480-486; 507.
390-448; 490-496;
487; 480-486; 507.
390-448; 490-496;
487; 480-486; 507.
390-448; 490-496;
487; 480-486; 507.
390-448; 490-496;
487; 480-486; 507.
480-486
480-486
480-486
480-486
490-496
490-496
490-496
490-496
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
65+
65+
65+
65+
65+
65+
65+
65+
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
1 -day lag
2-day lag
3-day lag
0-day lag
1 -day lag
2-day lag
3-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Model
log-linear
log-linear
logistic
logistic
log-linear
(GAM str.
log-linear
log-linear
log-linear
log-linear
log-linear
log-linear
log-linear
log-linear
(GAM str.
estimation)**
log-linear
(GAM str.
estimation)
log-linear
(GAM str.
estimation)
log-linear
(GAM str.
estimation)
log-linear
(GAM str.
estimation)
log-linear
(GAM str.
estimation)
log-linear
(GAM str.
estimation)
log-linear
(GAM str.
estimation)
Other
Pollutants
in Model
none
none
none
none
none
none
none
none
PM10
NO2
SO2
CO
none
none
none
none
none
none
none
none
Observed
Concentrations** (ppb)
min.
2
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
2
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
max.
75
NA
NA
NA
55
55
75
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
55
55
55
55
55
55
55
55
03
Coefficient
0.00076
0.00039
0.00068
0.00037
0.00093
0.00359
0.00135
0.00124
0.00074
0.00060
0.00051
0.00069
-0.00218
-0.00054
0.00066
0.00190
-0.00191
0.00187
-0.00027
0.00011
Lower
Bound
-0.00024
0.00013
-0.0001 1
0.00012
-0.00085
-0.00276
-0.00015
0.00047
-0.00033
0.00011
0.00001
0.00020
-0.00621
-0.00459
-0.00342
-0.00216
-0.00667
-0.00293
-0.00513
-0.00475
Upper
Bound
0.00177
0.00065
0.00148
0.00062
0.00271
0.00993
0.00286
0.00201
0.00171
0.00109
0.00102
0.00117
0.00186
0.00352
0.00473
0.00595
0.00286
0.00667
0.00459
0.00497
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Rounded to the nearest ppb.
***"GAM str. estimation" denotes that estimation of the log-linear C-R function used a generalized additive model with a stringent convergence criterion. This study also estimated log-linear C-R functions using generalized linear
models (GLM).
NA denotes "not available."
Abt Associates Inc.
B-3
December 2006
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Table B-6. Study-Specific Information for O3 Studies in Houston, TX
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities
(2004)
Huang et al. (2004)
Huang etal. -19 US
Cities (2004)
Huang etal. -19 US
Cities (2004)
Huang etal. -19 US
Cities (2004)
Huang etal. -19 US
Cities (2004)
Huang etal. -19 US
Cities (2004)
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-accidental
Mortality, non-accidental
Mortality, non-accidental
Mortality, non-accidental
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
ICD-9 Codes
<800
<800
<800
<800
390-448; 490-496;
487; 480-486; 507.
390-448; 490-496;
487; 480-486; 507.
390-448; 490-496;
487; 480-486; 507.
390-448; 490-496;
487; 480-486; 507.
390-448; 490-496;
487; 480-486; 507.
390-448; 490-496;
487; 480-486; 507.
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
Model
log-linear
log-linear
logistic
logistic
log-linear
log-linear
log-linear
log-linear
log-linear
log-linear
Other
Pollutants
in Model
none
none
none
none
none
none
PM10
NO2
SO2
CO
Observed
Concentrations** (ppb)
min.
1
NA
NA
NA
1
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
max.
76
NA
NA
NA
76
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
O3 Coefficient
0.00079
0.00039
0.00044
0.00037
0.00122
0.00124
0.00074
0.00060
0.00051
0.00069
Lower Bound
0.00005
0.00013
0.00004
0.00012
-0.00016
0.00047
-0.00033
0.00011
0.00001
0.00020
Upper Bound
0.00154
0.00065
0.00084
0.00062
0.00261
0.00201
0.00171
0.00109
0.00102
0.00117
*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to
**Rounded to the nearest ppb.
NA denotes "not available."
O,.
Abt Associates Inc.
B-4
December 2006
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Table B-7. Study-Specific Information for O3 Studies in Los Angeles, CA
Study
Bell et al. (2004)***
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities
(2004)***
Huang et al. (2004)***
Huang etal. -19 US
Cities (2004)***
Huang etal. -19 US
Cities (2004)***
Huang etal. -19 US
Cities (2004)***
Huang etal. -19 US
Cities (2004)***
Huang etal. -19 US
Cities (2004)***
Linn et al. (2000)****
Linn et al. (2000)****
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Hospital admissions
(unscheduled),
pulmonary illness —
Hospital admissions
(unscheduled),
pulmonary illness —
ICD-9 Codes
<800
<800
390-448; 490-496;
487; 480-486; 507.
390-448; 490-496;
487; 480-486; 507.
390-448; 490-496;
487; 480-486; 507.
390-448; 490-496;
487; 480-486; 507.
390-448; 490-496;
487; 480-486; 507.
390-448; 490-496;
487; 480-486; 507.
75-101*****
75-101*****
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
30+
30+
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
Model
log-linear
log-linear
log-linear
log-linear
log-linear
log-linear
log-linear
log-linear
log-linear
log-linear
Other
Pollutants
In Model
none
none
none
none
PM10
NO2
SO2
CO
none
none
Observed
Concentrations** (ppb)
min.
0
NA
0
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
1
1
max.
68
NA
68
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
70
70
O3 Coefficient
0.00018
0.00039
0.00107
0.00124
0.00074
0.00060
0.00051
0.00069
0.00110
0.00060
Lower Bound
-0.00043
0.00013
0.00001
0.00047
-0.00033
0.00011
0.00001
0.00020
-0.00047
-0.00077
Upper Bound
0.00079
0.00065
0.00213
0.00201
0.00171
0.00109
0.00102
0.00117
0.00267
0.00197
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3
"Rounded to the nearest ppb.
***Los Angeles is defined in this study as Los Angeles County.
****Los Angeles is defined in this study as Los Angeles, Riverside,
*****Linn et al. (2000) used DRG codes instead of ICD codes.
San Bernardino, and Orange Counties.
Abt Associates Inc.
B-5
December 2006
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Table B-8. Study-Specific Information for O3 Studies in New York, NY
Study
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities
(2004)***
Huang et al. (2004)***
Huang etal. -19 US
Cities (2004)***
Huang etal. -19 US
Cities (2004)***
Huang etal. -19 US
Cities (2004)***
Huang etal. -19 US
Cities (2004)***
Huang etal. -19 US
Cities (2004)***
Thurston etal. (1992)****
Thurston et al. (1992)****
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Hospital admissions
(unscheduled),
Hospital admissions
(unscheduled), asthma
ICD-9 Codes
<800
390-448; 490-496;
487; 480-486; 507.
390-448; 490-496;
487; 480-486; 507.
390-448; 490-496;
487; 480-486; 507.
390-448; 490-496;
487; 480-486; 507.
390-448; 490-496;
487; 480-486; 507.
390-448; 490-496;
487; 480-486; 507.
466, 480-486, 490,
491,492,493
493
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
3-day lag
1-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
Model
log-linear
log-linear
log-linear
log-linear
log-linear
log-linear
log-linear
linear
linear
Other
Pollutants
in Model
none
none
none
PM10
NO2
SO2
CO
none
none
Observed
Concentrations** (ppb)
min.
NA
-2
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
max.
NA
81
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
206
206
O3 Coefficient
0.00039
0.00170
0.00124
0.00074
0.00060
0.00051
0.00069
1 .370E-08
1.170E-08
Lower Bound
0.00013
0.00054
0.00047
-0.00033
0.00011
0.00001
0.00020
3.312E-09
2.488E-09
Upper Bound
0.00065
0.00286
0.00201
0.00171
0.00109
0.00102
0.00117
2.409E-08
2.091 E-08
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Rounded to the nearest ppb.
***New York in this study is defined as the five boroughs of New York City plus Westchester County.
****New York in this study is defined as the five boroughs of New York City.
NA denotes "not available."
Table B-9. Study-Specific Information for O3 Studies in Philadelphia, PA
Study
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities
(2004)
Moolgavkar et al. (1995)
Moolgavkar et al. (1995)
Huang et al. (2004)
Huang etal. -19 US
Cities (2004)
Huang etal. -19 US
Cities (2004)
Huang etal. -19 US
Cities (2004)
Huang etal. -19 US
Cities (2004)
Huang etal. -19 US
Cities (2004)
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
ICD-9 Codes
<800
<800
<800
390-448; 490-496;
487; 480-486; 507.
390-448; 490-496;
487; 480-486; 507.
390-448; 490-496;
487; 480-486; 507.
390-448; 490-496;
487; 480-486; 507.
390-448; 490-496;
487; 480-486; 507.
390-448; 490-496;
487; 480-486; 507.
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
Lag
distributed lag
1-day lag
1-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
Model
log-linear
log-linear
log-linear
log-linear
log-linear
log-linear
log-linear
log-linear
log-linear
Other
Pollutants
in Model
none
none
TSP, SO2
none
none
PM10
NO2
SO2
CO
Observed
Concentrations** (ppb)
min.
NA
1
1
-3
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
max.
NA
159
159
84
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
O3 Coefficient
0.00039
0.00140
0.00139
0.00151
0.00124
0.00074
0.00060
0.00051
0.00069
Lower Bound
0.00013
0.00086
0.00066
0.00007
0.00047
-0.00033
0.00011
0.00001
0.00020
Upper Bound
0.00065
0.00191
0.00212
0.00296
0.00201
0.00171
0.00109
0.00102
0.00117
*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Rounded to the nearest ppb.
NA denotes "not available."
Abt Associates Inc.
B-6
December 2006
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Table B-10. Study-Specific Information for O3 Studies in Sacramento, CA
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities
(2004)
Health Effects'
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
ICD-9 Codes
<800
<800
Ages
all
all
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Model
log-linear
log-linear
Other
Pollutants
in Model
none
none
Observed
Concentrations** (ppb)
min.
0
NA
max.
71
NA
O3 Coefficient
0.00026
0.00039
Lower Bound
-0.00079
0.00013
Upper Bound
0.00131
0.00065
*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
**Rounded to the nearest ppb.
NA denotes "not available."
Table B-11. Study-Specific Information for O3 Studies in St. Louis, MO
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities
(2004)
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
ICD-9 Codes
<800
<800
Ages
all
all
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Model
log-linear
log-linear
Other
Pollutants
in Model
none
none
Observed
Concentrations** (ppb)
min.
0
NA
max.
118
NA
O3 Coefficient
0.00044
0.00039
Lower Bound
-0.00072
0.00013
Upper Bound
0.00159
0.00065
*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
**Rounded to the nearest ppb.
NA denotes "not available."
Table B-12. Study-Specific Information for O3 Studies in Washington, D.C.
Study
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities
(2004)
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
ICD-9 Codes
<800
Ages
all
Lag
distributed lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
Model
log-linear
Other
Pollutants
in Model
none
Observed
Concentrations** (ppb)
min.
NA
max.
NA
O3 Coefficient
0.00039
Lower Bound
0.00013
Upper Bound
0.00065
*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
**Rounded to the nearest ppb.
NA denotes "not available."
Abt Associates Inc.
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December 2006
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B.2 Concentration-Response Functions and Health Impact Functions
Notation:
y0 = Incidence under baseline conditions
yc = Incidence under control conditions
x0 = O3 levels under baseline conditions
xc = O3 levels under control conditions
B.2.1 Log-linear
The log-linear concentration-response function is: y = Be13*
The derivation of the corresponding health impact function is as follows:
r° -Be
S
1-
o /!_/•(*»-0
B.2.2 Linear
The linear concentration-response function is: y = a + fix
The derivation of the corresponding health impact function is as follows:
Abt Associates Inc.
B-8
December 2006
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y = a + (3x
y0 = a + (3x0
yc=a + (3xc
B.2.3 Logistic
' "I 1
The logistic concentration-response function is: y = \
The derivation of the corresponding health impact function is as follows:
y =
l + e
-f*
y
odds = —^—
odds ratio =
Abt Associates Inc. B-9 December 2006
-------
y +y
yc-
y0
yc=-
1 + 1
yc=-
y0
y0-yc=y0
(l-y0).e^+y0
Abt Associates Inc.
B-10
December 2006
-------
B.3 The Calculation of "Shrinkage" Estimates from the Location-Specific Estimates
Reported in Huang et al. (2004)
"Shrinkage" estimates were calculated from the location-specific estimates reported in
Table 1 of Huang et al. (2004), using the method described in DuMouchel (1994). Both Huang
et al. (2004) and DuMouchel (1994) consider a Bayesian hierarchical model. Although they use
different notation, the models are the same. The notation comparison is given in Table B-13
below.
Given a posterior distribution for T, TT(T | y), a shrinkage estimate for the ith location is
calculated as:
2 2
where 0,* (r) = E[9, \y,r] = n\r)+ [y, - V * (r)] r 2 /(r 2 + sf ) ,
where JU*(T) = E[/u\y,T] = ^wt(T)yt ,
where WI(T) = (r2 +Sfyl
A shrinkage estimate for the ith location is thus defined to be the expected value of the ith
location-specific parameter, given all the location-specific estimates (see Table 1 for notation
explanations). The posterior variance of the true ith location-specific parameter, given all the
location-specific estimates, is given by:
r = nO, \y] = (V\Pi \y,r] + [0:(T)-9;]2}x(T\y) dr ,
where V[0J \y,r] = [sf /(r2 +sf)]2 /£(r2 +s^ + T2sf /(r2 +sf) .
j
A 95 percent credible interval around the ith shrinkage estimate was calculated as
9* +1.
Abt Associates Inc. B-ll December 2006
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Table B-13. Notation
Location indicator
parameter being estimated for location c (or
i)
Estimate of parameter for location c (or i)*
variance in the overall distribution of true 9s.
variance of the estimate of 9C or (9;)**
The mean of the overall distribution of true
9s
The model:
Huang et al. (2004)
c
9C
e°
T2
vc
^
9c~N(9c,vc} (1)
6c~N(/u,T2) (2)
(1)&(2)^>£C ~N(/u,vc+T2)
DuMouchel (1994)
i
6i
y,
T2
2
st
»
y, = /u + 8t + st (1)
Oi=n+8i (2)
8t ~N(0,T2) (3)
et~N(0,sf) (4)
(2) and (3)=>0,. ~ N(/u,T2)
*Given in Table 1 of Huang et al. (2004)
**Estimated by taking the square of the location-specific standard error, reported in Huang et al. (2004) for each location.
Abt Associates Inc.
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December 2006
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APPENDIX C: Additional Lung Function Results
-------
C.1 Lung Function Response Among Active Children Associated with Exposure to "As Is" O3 Concentrations Over Background O3 Concentrations
Table C-1. Estimated Number and Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function Response Associated with Exposure to "As Is" O3
Concentrations Over Background O3 Concentrations Among Active Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion, for
Location-Specific O3 Seasons: 2004 O3 Concentrations*
Location
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, DC
Response = Decrease in FEV., Greater Than or Equal to:
10%
Number (1000s)
384
(1 33 - 689)
237
(68 - 437)
383
(92-713)
143
(41 - 263)
248
(67 - 459)
386
(1 79 - 638)
2725
(1259-4587)
1112
(349 - 201 2)
415
(1 49 - 735)
143
(52 - 252)
157
(46 - 286)
493
(1 76 - 878)
Percent
1%
(0.3% - 1 .7%)
0.8%
(0.2% - 1 .5%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .3%)
0.8%
(0.2% - 1 .4%)
0.8%
(0.2% - 1 .4%)
0.6%
(0.3%- 1%)
1.3%
(0.6% - 2.2%)
0.9%
(0.3% - 1 .7%)
1.1%
(0.4% - 1 .9%)
0.8%
(0.3% - 1 .4%)
0.8%
(0.2% - 1 .4%)
1%
(0.3% - 1 .7%)
15%
Number (1000s)
91
(13-219)
53
(6 - 1 37)
81
(3 - 221 )
32
(3 - 82)
54
(4 - 1 43)
106
(27-217)
735
(190-1532)
255
(30 - 636)
99
(1 4 - 235)
33
(4 - 80)
34
(2 - 89)
119
(20 - 282)
Percent
0.2%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.6%)
20%
Number (1000s)
13
(1 - 56)
6
(1 - 33)
8
(0-51)
4
(0 - 20)
6
(0 - 34)
20
(5 - 64)
133
(27 - 443)
33
(3 - 1 57)
13
(1 - 60)
4
(0 - 20)
4
(0-21)
18
(3 - 73)
Percent
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
"Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) numbers of occurrences. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty
surrounding the O3 coefficient. Numbers are rounded to the nearest 1000. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
Abt Associates Inc.
C-1
December 2006
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Table C-2. Estimated Number and Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function Response Associated with Exposure to "As Is" O3
Concentrations Over Background O3 Concentrations Among Active Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion, for
Location-Specific O3 Seasons: 2002 O3 Concentrations*
Location
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, DC
Response = Decrease in FEY., Greater Than or Equal to:
10%
Number (1000s)
471
(213-801)
442
(206 - 739)
799
(387 - 1 327)
324
(1 71 - 523)
505
(251 - 834)
335
(1 59 - 548)
2473
(1 1 34 - 41 44)
2258
(1 1 57 - 3691 )
822
(447 - 1 31 5)
204
(92 - 345)
304
(1 55 - 496)
895
(456 - 1 468)
Percent
1.2%
(0.5% - 2%)
1.5%
(0.7% - 2.5%)
1.5%
(0.7% - 2.5%)
1.9%
(1 % - 3%)
1.7%
(0.8% - 2.8%)
0.6%
(0.3% - 0.9%)
1.1%
(0.5% - 1 .9%)
1.9%
(1%-3.1%)
2.1%
(1.1% -3.3%)
1.2%
(0.5% - 2%)
1.6%
(0.8% - 2.5%)
1.8%
(0.9% - 2.9%)
15%
Number (1000s)
128
(36 - 268)
129
(45 - 258)
230
(77 - 457)
101
(41 - 1 88)
148
(52 - 289)
94
(27 - 1 88)
678
(187-1401)
679
(253 - 1 300)
260
(1 06 - 476)
55
(14-115)
91
(33 - 1 74)
268
(98-516)
Percent
0.3%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.4%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.9%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1.1%)
0.5%
(0.2%- 1%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1.1%)
0.7%
(0.3% - 1 .2%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.5%
(0.2%- 1%)
20%
Number (1000s)
24
(6 - 78)
30
(1 1 - 82)
48
(14-1 40)
25
(9 - 63)
32
(9 - 89)
19
(5 - 57)
131
(34-415)
158
(52 - 421 )
66
(24 - 1 63)
10
(2 - 33)
20
(6 - 55)
62
(21 -167)
Percent
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
"Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) numbers of occurrences. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty
surrounding the O3 coefficient. Numbers are rounded to the nearest 1000. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
Abt Associates Inc.
C-2
December 2006
-------
Table C-3. Number and Percent of Active Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion Estimated to Experience At Least One
Lung Function Response Associated with Exposure to "As Is" Oj Concentrations Over Background O3 Concentrations, for
Location-Specific O3 Seasons: 2004 O3 Concentrations*
Location
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, DC
Response = Decrease in FEV., Greater Than or Equal to:
10%
Number (1000s)
43
(32 - 62)
31
(22 - 48)
43
(28 - 70)
16
(11-25)
31
(21 - 48)
59
(47 - 80)
227
(191 -296)
140
(99-210)
47
(34 - 69)
12
(9-17)
17
(11-27)
65
(49 - 94)
Percent
9.5%
(7% -13.8%)
6.5%
(4.5% -10%)
4.9%
(3.1% -7. 9%)
6.4%
(4.4% - 9.9%)
6.1%
(4.2% - 9.6%)
12.1%
(9.6% -16.4%)
14%
(11. 8% -18.3%)
7.6%
(5.4% - 1 1 .5%)
8.8%
(6.4% -13%)
7.8%
(6.2% - 1 1 .5%)
6%
(4% - 9.6%)
9.6%
(7.2% -13.7%)
15%
Number (1000s)
16
(9 - 24)
10
(4-17)
12
(3 - 23)
5
(2-9)
10
(4-16)
25
(16-36)
103
(71 - 140)
48
(23 - 77)
17
(9 - 26)
4
(2-6)
5
(2-9)
25
(14-38)
Percent
3.5%
(1.9% -5.3%)
2.2%
(0.9% - 3.6%)
1 .4%
(0.3% - 2.6%)
2.1%
(0.8% - 3.4%)
1 .9%
(0.7% - 3.3%)
5.2%
(3.4% - 7.3%)
6.4%
(4.4% - 8.6%)
2.6%
(1.2% -4.2%)
3.2%
(1.7% -4.9%)
2.9%
(1.5% -4.3%)
1 .8%
(0.6% - 3.2%)
3.7%
(2.1% -5. 5%)
20%
Number (1000s)
4
(1-9)
2
(0-6)
2
(0-7)
1
(0-3)
2
(0-5)
9
(4-16)
37
(17-65)
12
(3 - 28)
4
(1 - 10)
1
(0-2)
1
(0-3)
7
(3-15)
Percent
0.9%
(0.3% - 2%)
0.5%
(0.1% -1.2%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.8%)
0.4%
(0.1% -1.1%)
0.4%
(0%-1.1%)
1 .8%
(0.8% - 3.3%)
2.3%
(1.1% -4%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1.5%)
0.8%
(0.2% -1.8%)
0.7%
(0.1% -1.6%)
0.3%
(0%-1%)
1.1%
(0.4% - 2.2%)
"Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) numbers of children. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty
surrounding the O3 coefficient. Numbers are rounded to the nearest 1000. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
Abt Associates Inc.
C-3
December 2006
-------
Table C-4. Number and Percent of Active Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion Estimated to Experience At Least One
Lung Function Response Associated with Exposure to "As Is" Oj Concentrations Over Background O3 Concentrations, for
Location-Specific O3 Seasons: 2002 O3 Concentrations*
Location
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, DC
Response = Decrease in FEV., Greater Than or Equal to:
10%
Number (1000s)
62
(49 - 82)
73
(59 - 93)
127
(102-164)
46
(38 - 57)
75
(61 - 96)
58
(46 - 78)
230
(193-296)
319
(261 -401)
107
(89-131)
20
(17-26)
44
(36 - 56)
124
(102-155)
Percent
13.8%
(11% -18.3%)
15.4%
(12.4% -19.7%)
14.9%
(12% -19.3%)
18.9%
(15.6% -23.2%)
15.7%
(12.7% -20%)
12.2%
(9.7% -16.4%)
14.1%
(11. 9% -18.2%)
17.6%
(14.4% -22.2%)
20.1%
(16.7% -24.6%)
13.5%
(11. 4% -17.4%)
16.6%
(13.5% -20.9%)
18.2%
(15% -22.8%)
15%
Number (1000s)
27
(18-37)
35
(24 - 47)
58
(39 - 79)
23
(16-30)
34
(23 - 47)
25
(17-35)
108
(74-144)
154
(109-206)
55
(39 - 72)
9
(6-13)
21
(15-28)
61
(43-81)
Percent
6%
(4o/0 . 8.4%)
7.4%
(5.1% -10%)
6.8%
(4.6% - 9.3%)
9.4%
(6.7% -12.4%)
7.2%
(4.9% - 9.7%)
5.3%
(3.5% - 7.4%)
6.6%
(4.5% - 8.8%)
8.5%
(6% -11. 4%)
10.3%
(7.4% -13.5%)
6.2%
(4.2% - 8.3%)
7.8%
(5.4% -10.5%)
8.9%
(6.3% -11. 9%)
20%
Number (1000s)
9
(4-17)
15
(8 - 25)
21
(1 1 - 38)
10
(6-17)
13
(6 - 22)
9
(4-16)
41
(21-71)
64
(35-107)
24
(14-40)
3
(2-6)
8
(4-14)
26
(14-43)
Percent
2.1%
(1%-3.8%)
3.1%
(1.7% -5.2%)
2.5%
(1.2% -4.4%)
4%
(2.3% - 6.8%)
2.6%
(1 .3% - 4.6%)
1 .9%
(0.9% - 3.4%)
2.5%
(1 .3% - 4.4%)
3.5%
(1 .9% - 5.9%)
4.6%
(2.6% - 7.5%)
2.2%
(1%-3.9%)
3%
(1 .6% - 5.2%)
3.8%
(2.1% -6.3%)
"Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) numbers of children. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty
surrounding the O3 coefficient. Numbers are rounded to the nearest 1000. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
Abt Associates Inc.
C-4
December 2006
-------
C.2 Lung Function Response Among Active Children Associated with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative
Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards
Table C-5. Estimated Number of Occurrences of Lung Function Response Associated with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet
the Current and Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards Among Active Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion, for
Location-Specific O3 Seasons: Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations*
Location
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, DC
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Standards**
0.084/4***
0.084/3
0.080/4****
0.074/5
0.074/4
0.074/3
0.070/4****
0.064/4
Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 10%
288
(79 - 533)
177
(38 - 337)
267
(41 -514)
98
(19- 186)
187
(37 - 356)
216
(79 - 366)
915
(196-1694)
674
(122- 1289)
279
(70-516)
79
(18- 146)
128
(32 - 237)
340
(88 - 632)
283
(77 - 524)
160
(30 - 308)
249
(35 - 482)
90
(16- 173)
171
(31 - 329)
194
(67 - 330)
874
(180-1623)
638
(107- 1228)
258
(60 - 481)
74
(16- 138)
118
(27 - 220)
306
(71 - 576)
257
(63 - 480)
158
(29 - 305)
235
(30 - 457)
87
(14- 167)
166
(29 - 321)
186
(63 - 31 7)
795
(149-1485)
601
(91 - 1163)
248
(55 - 464)
69
(14- 129)
112
(24 - 209)
304
(70 - 571)
227
(49 - 430)
152
(27 - 294)
211
(22-414)
75
(10- 146)
161
(26-311)
151
(46 - 257)
592
(89-1119)
492
(51 - 973)
212
(38 - 403)
58
(10- 109)
95
(17-180)
268
(53-512)
213
(42 - 406)
132
(19-260)
191
(17-379)
72
(9- 141)
138
(18-271)
144
(43 - 246)
567
(82-1074)
504
(55 - 995)
206
(36 - 393)
55
(9- 104)
90
(15-173)
253
(46 - 485)
211
(41 - 402)
122
(15-242)
179
(14-357)
67
(7-132)
127
(14-252)
130
(37 - 220)
521
(71 - 988)
482
(47 - 955)
193
(30 - 370)
52
(8- 100)
84
(13-161)
230
(37 - 446)
188
(32 - 362)
117
(13-232)
163
(10-328)
63
(6-125)
121
(12-240)
116
(32- 196)
414
(48 - 788)
445
(37 - 890)
181
(26 - 349)
46
(6 - 89)
78
(11 -150)
222
(34 - 432)
154
(19-302)
95
(7- 194)
126
(3 - 259)
50
(3- 102)
97
(6-196)
66
(18- 102)
204
(14-383)
350
(16-714)
147
(14-290)
34
(3 - 67)
60
(5-119)
180
(19-357)
Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 15%
63
(4- 166)
37
(2-104)
53
(0- 158)
20
(0 - 57)
38
(1 - 109)
51
(5-119)
62
(4- 163)
33
(1 - 94)
49
(0- 148)
18
(0 - 53)
35
(1-101)
45
(4- 107)
54
(2-149)
32
(1 - 93)
46
(0-140)
17
(0-51)
33
(0 - 98)
43
(3-103)
47
(1 - 133)
30
(1 - 90)
41
(0-126)
15
(0 - 44)
32
(0 - 95)
34
(1 - 83)
43
(1-125)
26
(0 - 79)
37
(0-115)
14
(0 - 43)
27
(0 - 82)
33
(1 - 80)
43
(1 -123)
24
(0 - 73)
34
(0-108)
13
(0 - 40)
24
(0 - 76)
29
(1 - 72)
37
(0-111)
22
(0 - 70)
31
(0 - 99)
12
(0 - 38)
23
(0 - 73)
26
(1 - 64)
30
(0 - 92)
18
(0 - 58)
23
(0 - 78)
9
(0 - 31)
18
(0 - 59)
15
(0 - 35)
Abt Associates Inc.
C-5
December 2006
-------
Location
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, DC
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, DC
Standards**
0.084/4***
189
(3 - 528)
136
(3 - 396)
60
(2- 160)
16
(0 - 45)
27
(1 - 73)
73
(5-197)
0.084/3
180
(2 - 506)
128
(2 - 376)
54
(1 - 149)
15
(0 - 43)
24
(0 - 68)
65
(3- 178)
0.080/4****
161
(1 - 462)
119
(1 - 356)
52
(1 - 144)
14
(0 - 40)
23
(0 - 65)
64
(3-177)
0.074/5
118
(0 - 347)
94
(0 - 296)
43
(0-124)
12
(0 - 34)
19
(0 - 56)
55
(1 - 157)
0.074/4
113
(0 - 333)
97
(0 - 303)
42
(0-121)
11
(0 - 32)
18
(0 - 53)
51
(1 -149)
0.074/3
103
(0 - 307)
92
(0 - 290)
38
(0-114)
10
(0 - 31)
17
(0 - 50)
46
(1 -136)
0.070/4****
82
(0 - 244)
84
(0 - 269)
36
(0-107)
9
(0-27)
15
(0 - 46)
44
(0-132)
0.064/4
41
(0-120)
65
(0-214)
28
(0 - 88)
7
(0 - 20)
12
(0 - 36)
34
(0-108)
Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 20%
7
(0 - 39)
4
(0 - 23)
5
(0 - 34)
2
(0-13)
4
(0 - 24)
7
(0-31)
18
(0-120)
12
(0 - 87)
6
(0 - 37)
2
(0-10)
3
(0-17)
8
(0 - 46)
7
(0 - 38)
3
(0-21)
4
(0 - 32)
2
(0-12)
3
(0 - 22)
6
(0-28)
17
(0- 114)
11
(0-82)
5
(0-34)
1
(0-10)
2
(0-15)
7
(0-41)
6
(0 - 34)
3
(0-21)
4
(0 - 30)
2
(0-11)
3
(0-21)
5
(0 - 26)
14
(0-103)
10
(0 - 77)
5
(0 - 33)
1
(0-9)
2
(0-15)
6
(0 - 40)
4
(0 - 30)
3
(0 - 20)
3
(0 - 27)
1
(0-9)
3
(0-21)
4
(0-21)
10
(0 - 76)
7
(0 - 62)
4
(0 - 27)
1
(0-7)
2
(0-12)
5
(0 - 35)
4
(0 - 28)
2
(0-17)
3
(0 - 24)
1
(0-9)
2
(0-17)
4
(0 - 20)
9
(0 - 73)
8
(0 - 64)
4
(0-27)
1
(0-7)
2
(0-12)
5
(0 - 33)
4
(0-27)
2
(0-15)
3
(0 - 22)
1
(0-8)
2
(0-16)
3
(0-18)
9
(0-67)
7
(0 - 61)
3
(0 - 25)
1
(0-7)
1
(0-11)
4
(0 - 30)
3
(0 - 24)
2
(0-15)
2
(0 - 20)
1
(0-8)
2
(0-15)
3
(0-16)
7
(0 - 53)
6
(0 - 56)
3
(0 - 23)
1
(0-6)
1
(0-10)
4
(0 - 28)
2
(0-19)
1
(0-12)
2
(0-16)
1
(0-6)
1
(0-12)
2
(0-9)
3
(0 - 26)
5
(0 - 43)
2
(0-19)
0
(0-4)
1
(0-8)
3
(0 - 23)
"Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) numbers of occurrences. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty
surrounding the O3 coefficient.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest 1000.
"These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr
average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
Abt Associates Inc.
C-6
December 2006
-------
Table C-6. Estimated Number of Occurrences of Lung Function Response Associated with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet
the Current and Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards Among Active Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion, for
Location-Specific O3 Seasons: Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations*
Location
Number of Occurrences (in 1000s) of Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3
Standards**
0.084/4***
0.084/3
0.080/4
0.074/5
0.074/4
0.074/3
0.070/4
0.064/4
Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 10%
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, DC
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
354
(1 35 - 624)
336
(1 33 - 587)
580
(235 - 1 009)
226
(99 - 387)
385
(1 66 - 664)
183
(70 - 306)
818
(186-1505)
1386
(529 - 2443)
567
(256 - 962)
121
(40-217)
251
(118-422)
632
(266 - 1 092)
349
(1 32 - 61 7)
304
(1 1 1 - 539)
543
(210-952)
206
(84 - 358)
349
(141 -610)
164
(60 - 275)
792
(176-1459)
1310
(478 - 2326)
523
(224 - 898)
114
(36 - 205)
233
(1 05 - 396)
568
(223 - 998)
315
(1 1 1 - 564)
301
(1 09 - 534)
514
(1 91 - 909)
201
(81 -351)
341
(1 35 - 598)
157
(57 - 263)
696
(142-1288)
1244
(434 - 2225)
508
(214-875)
107
(32 - 1 94)
222
(97 - 380)
564
(220 - 992)
283
(91 -511)
287
(1 00 - 51 4)
467
(1 61 - 836)
175
(63-311)
332
(1 29 - 585)
126
(42-211)
483
(81 - 899)
1025
(299 - 1 876)
443
(1 68 - 778)
92
(24 - 1 70)
194
(78 - 338)
505
(1 81 - 900)
264
(81 - 482)
253
(78-461)
427
(1 37 - 772)
168
(59 - 301 )
282
(96 - 508)
120
(39 - 201 )
477
(80 - 886)
1054
(316-1922)
427
(1 58 - 754)
89
(23 - 1 64)
183
(71 -321)
475
(1 62 - 854)
263
(80 - 480)
234
(67-431)
405
(1 24 - 737)
154
(50 - 279)
258
(82 - 470)
109
(34 - 1 80)
450
(73 - 837)
1004
(286-1842)
398
(139-710)
84
(20 - 1 56)
171
(63 - 303)
434
(1 37 - 789)
232
(63 - 429)
224
(62 - 41 6)
375
(107-688)
147
(46 - 269)
247
(75 - 452)
95
(30 - 1 55)
334
(48 - 61 6)
937
(247-1733)
379
(127-680)
77
(17-1 45)
159
(56 - 284)
421
(129-769)
191
(42 - 358)
185
(40 - 352)
304
(68 - 569)
121
(31 - 226)
201
(49 - 376)
49
(16-68)
141
(18-241)
757
(156-1430)
314
(87 - 575)
61
(11-117)
128
(37 - 234)
348
(88 - 649)
Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 15%
87
(1 6 - 200)
87
(22 - 1 94)
148
(32 - 328)
60
(16-1 28)
101
(25-218)
45
(6-101)
172
(4 - 471 )
85
(15-1 98)
76
(16-1 75)
135
(25 - 307)
53
(12-117)
88
(18-1 97)
39
(4 - 90)
166
(4 - 456)
74
(10-1 79)
75
(15-1 73)
125
(21 -291)
51
(11 -114)
85
(17-1 93)
37
(3 - 86)
144
(3 - 403)
64
(7-161)
70
(13-1 65)
110
(1 4 - 265)
42
(7 - 99)
82
(15-1 88)
29
(2 - 69)
98
(1 -281)
59
(5-151)
58
(8-145)
97
(1 0 - 243)
40
(6 - 95)
65
(8 - 1 60)
28
(1 - 66)
97
(1 - 277)
59
(5 - 1 50)
52
(6 - 1 35)
91
(8 - 231 )
35
(4 - 88)
58
(5-147)
25
(1 - 59)
91
(1 - 262)
50
(2 - 1 33)
50
(5 - 1 30)
82
(5-214)
33
(3 - 84)
55
(4 - 1 41 )
22
(1 - 52)
68
(0 - 1 94)
39
(0-111)
39
(2 - 1 08)
63
(1 -176)
26
(1 - 70)
42
(1 -116)
12
(0 - 25)
30
(0 - 80)
Abt Associates Inc.
C-7
December 2006
-------
Location
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, DC
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, DC
Number of Occurrences (in 1000s) of Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3
Standards**
0.084/4***
339
(59 - 784)
153
(40 - 320)
28
(3 - 69)
70
(21 -142)
164
(38 - 358)
0.084/3
314
(48 - 741 )
136
(31 - 295)
25
(2 - 65)
63
(17-1 32)
141
(27 - 322)
0.080/4
292
(38 - 705)
130
(28 - 286)
24
(2-61)
59
(15-1 25)
140
(26-319)
0.074/5
226
(1 6 - 586)
107
(1 7 - 249)
20
(1 - 53)
48
(10-1 09)
120
(1 8 - 286)
0.074/4
234
(18-601)
102
(1 5 - 240)
19
(1 -51)
45
(8 - 1 03)
110
(1 4 - 270)
0.074/3
220
(1 4 - 574)
93
(1 1 - 225)
18
(0 - 48)
41
(6 - 97)
98
(9 - 247)
0.070/4
201
(9 - 538)
87
(9-214)
16
(0 - 45)
37
(5 - 90)
94
(8 - 240)
0.064/4
155
(2-441)
68
(3 - 1 79)
12
(0 - 36)
28
(1 - 73)
74
(2-201)
Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 20%
13
(2 - 53)
16
(4 - 54)
23
(3 - 89)
11
(2 - 36)
17
(3 - 60)
6
(1 - 27)
17
(0 - 1 08)
50
(6 - 205)
27
(6 - 92)
3
(0-17)
13
(3 - 42)
28
(5 - 99)
12
(1 - 52)
12
(2 - 47)
20
(2-81)
8
(1 -31)
13
(1 - 52)
5
(0 - 24)
16
(0 - 1 05)
43
(4 - 1 90)
22
(4-81)
3
(0-16)
11
(2 - 37)
21
(3 - 85)
10
(1 - 45)
12
(2 - 46)
17
(2 - 75)
8
(1 - 30)
13
(1 -51)
5
(0 - 22)
14
(0-91)
38
(2 - 1 78)
21
(3 - 78)
3
(0-15)
10
(2 - 35)
21
(3 - 84)
8
(0 - 40)
11
(2 - 43)
14
(1 - 67)
6
(0 - 25)
12
(1 - 49)
3
(0-18)
9
(0 - 63)
25
(0 - 1 40)
15
(1 - 65)
2
(0-12)
7
(1 - 29)
16
(1 - 73)
7
(0 - 36)
8
(1 - 36)
12
(0 - 60)
5
(0 - 24)
8
(0 - 40)
3
(0-17)
8
(0 - 62)
27
(1 -145)
14
(1 - 62)
2
(0-12)
6
(0 - 27)
14
(1 - 67)
7
(0 - 36)
6
(0 - 32)
11
(0 - 56)
4
(0 - 22)
7
(0 - 36)
3
(0-15)
8
(0 - 58)
24
(0 - 1 36)
12
(1 - 56)
2
(0-11)
5
(0 - 25)
12
(0 - 60)
5
(0-31)
6
(0-31)
9
(0-51)
4
(0 - 20)
6
(0 - 34)
2
(0-13)
6
(0 - 43)
21
(0 - 1 26)
11
(0 - 53)
2
(0-10)
5
(0 - 23)
11
(0 - 58)
4
(0 - 25)
4
(0 - 24)
6
(0 - 40)
3
(0-16)
4
(0 - 27)
1
(0-7)
3
(0-19)
14
(0 - 99)
7
(0 - 42)
1
(0-8)
3
(0-17)
7
(0 - 46)
"Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) numbers of occurrences. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty
surrounding the O3 coefficient.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest 1000.
"These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr
average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
Abt Associates Inc.
C-8
December 2006
-------
Table C-7. Estimated Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function Response Associated with Exposure to Oj Concentrations That Just Meet
the Current and Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards Among Active Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion, for
Location-Specific O3 Seasons: Based on Adjusting 2004 03 Concentrations*
Location
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, DC
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
0.084/3
0.080/4
0.074/5
0.074/4
0.074/3
0.070/4
0.064/4
Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 10%
0.7%
(0.2% -1.3%)
0.6%
(0.1% -1.1%)
0.5%
(0.1% -0.9%)
0.5%
(0.1%-1%)
0.6%
(0.1% -1.1%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.8%)
0.6%
(0.1% -1.1%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .3%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.8%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1.1%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .2%)
0.7%
(0.2% -1.3%)
0.5%
(0.1% -1%)
0.5%
(0.1% -0.9%)
0.5%
(0.1% -0.9%)
0.5%
(0.1%-1%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.8%)
0.5%
(0.1%-1%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .2%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.8%)
0.6%
(0.1% -1.1%)
0.6%
(0.1% -1.1%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1.2%)
0.5%
(0.1% -1%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.8%)
0.5%
(0.1% -0.9%)
0.5%
(0.1%-1%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.5%
(0.1%-1%)
0.6%
(0.1% -1.2%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.5%
(0.1% -1%)
0.6%
(0.1% -1.1%)
0.6%
(0.1% -1.1%)
0.5%
(0.1% -1%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.8%)
0.5%
(0.1%-1%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.8%)
0.5%
(0.1% -1%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.5%
(0.1% -0.9%)
0.5%
(0.1% -1%)
0.5%
(0.1% -1%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.9%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.8%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.9%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.8%)
0.5%
(0.1% -1%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.8%)
0.5%
(0.1% -1%)
0.5%
(0.1% -1%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.8%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.8%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.8%)
0.5%
(0.1% -0.9%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.8%)
0.5%
(0.1% -0.9%)
0.5%
(0.1% -0.9%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.8%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.8%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.8%)
0.5%
(0.1% -0.9%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.9%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.8%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.7%)
Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 15%
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
Abt Associates Inc.
C-9
December 2006
-------
Location
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, DC
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, DC
Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.084/3
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.080/4
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.074/5
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.074/4
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.074/3
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.070/4
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.064/4
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 20%
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
"Percents are median (0.5 fractile) percents of occurrences. Percents in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty
surrounding the O3 coefficient.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
"These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr
average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
Abt Associates Inc.
C-10
December 2006
-------
Table C-8. Estimated Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function Response Associated with Exposure to Oj Concentrations That Just Meet
the Current and Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards Among Active Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion, for
Location-Specific O3 Seasons: Based on Adjusting 2002 03 Concentrations*
Location
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, DC
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
0.084/3
0.080/4
0.074/5
0.074/4
0.074/3
0.070/4
0.064/4
Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 10%
0.9%
(0.3% -1.6%)
1.1%
(0.4% - 2%)
1.1%
(0.4% -1.9%)
1 .3%
(0.6% - 2.2%)
1 .3%
(0.5% - 2.2%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
1 .2%
(0.5% -2.1%)
1 .4%
(0.6% - 2.4%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .2%)
1 .3%
(0.6% - 2.2%)
1 .2%
(0.5% -2.1%)
0.9%
(0.3% -1.6%)
1%
(0.4% -1.8%)
1%
(0.4% -1.8%)
1 .2%
(0.5% -2.1%)
1 .2%
(0.5% - 2%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
1.1%
(0.4% - 2%)
1 .3%
(0.6% - 2.3%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .2%)
1 .2%
(0.5% - 2%)
1.1%
(0.4% - 2%)
0.8%
(0.3% -1.4%)
1%
(0.4% -1.8%)
1%
(0.4% -1.7%)
1 .2%
(0.5% - 2%)
1.1%
(0.4% - 2%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
1.1%
(0.4% - 1 .9%)
1 .3%
(0.5% - 2.2%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1.1%)
1.1%
(0.5% - 1 .9%)
1.1%
(0.4% - 1 .9%)
0.7%
(0.2% -1.3%)
1%
(0.3% -1.7%)
0.9%
(0.3% -1.6%)
1%
(0.4% -1.8%)
1.1%
(0.4% -1.9%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.9%
(0.3% - 1 .6%)
1.1%
(0.4% - 2%)
0.5%
(0.1% -1%)
1%
(0.4% - 1 .7%)
1%
(0.4% - 1 .8%)
0.7%
(0.2% -1.2%)
0.9%
(0.3% -1.6%)
0.8%
(0.3% -1.5%)
1%
(0.3% -1.7%)
0.9%
(0.3% -1.7%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.9%
(0.3% - 1 .6%)
1.1%
(0.4% - 1 .9%)
0.5%
(0.1% -0.9%)
0.9%
(0.4% - 1 .6%)
0.9%
(0.3% - 1 .7%)
0.7%
(0.2% -1.2%)
0.8%
(0.2% -1.5%)
0.8%
(0.2% -1.4%)
0.9%
(0.3% -1.6%)
0.9%
(0.3% -1.6%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.9%
(0.2% - 1 .6%)
1%
(0.4% - 1 .8%)
0.5%
(0.1% -0.9%)
0.9%
(0.3% - 1 .5%)
0.9%
(0.3% - 1 .6%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1.1%)
0.8%
(0.2% -1.4%)
0.7%
(0.2% -1.3%)
0.9%
(0.3% -1.6%)
0.8%
(0.2% - 1 .5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.8%
(0.2% - 1 .5%)
1%
(0.3% - 1 .7%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.8%)
0.8%
(0.3% - 1 .5%)
0.8%
(0.3% - 1 .5%)
0.5%
(0.1% -0.9%)
0.6%
(0.1% -1.2%)
0.6%
(0.1% -1.1%)
0.7%
(0.2% -1.3%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .2%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.6%
(0.1% -1.2%)
0.8%
(0.2% - 1 .4%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .2%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .3%)
Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 15%
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
Abt Associates Inc.
C-ll
December 2006
-------
Location
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, DC
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, DC
Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
0.3%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.8%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.084/3
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.080/4
0.2%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.074/5
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.074/4
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.074/3
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.070/4
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.064/4
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 20%
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
"Percents are median (0.5 fractile) percents of occurrences. Percents in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty
surrounding the O3 coefficient.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 - 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr
average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
Abt Associates Inc.
C-12
December 2006
-------
Table C-9. Number of Active Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response
Associated with Exposure to 03 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for
Location-Specific O3 Seasons: Based on Adjusting 2004 03 Concentrations*
Location
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, DC
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
Number of Active Children (in 1000s) Estimated to Experience at Least One Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet
the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
0.084/3
0.080/4
0.074/5
0.074/4
0.074/3
0.070/4
0.064/4
Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 10%
30
(21 - 47)
22
(14-35)
28
(16-46)
10
(6-16)
22
(13-35)
32
(23 - 48)
58
(43-91)
72
(44-117)
29
(19-46)
6
(4-9)
13
(9 - 22)
41
(27 - 63)
29
(20 - 46)
19
(1 1 - 30)
26
(14-42)
9
(5-15)
19
(12-31)
28
(20 - 44)
54
(40 - 85)
67
(39-108)
26
(17-42)
5
(4-8)
12
(8 - 20)
36
(23 - 56)
26
(17-41)
19
(1 1 - 30)
24
(13-39)
9
(5-14)
19
(1 1 - 30)
27
(19-42)
47
(35 - 73)
62
(35 - 99)
25
(16-40)
5
(4-8)
12
(7-19)
35
(23 - 56)
22
(14-35)
18
(10-29)
21
(11-34)
7
(4-11)
18
(10-29)
22
(15-35)
35
(25 - 52)
46
(24 - 74)
20
(12-33)
4
(3-6)
9
(5-15)
29
(18-47)
20
(13-33)
14
(8 - 23)
19
(9 - 30)
7
(4-11)
14
(8 - 23)
21
(14-34)
33
(24-51)
48
(25 - 77)
19
(1 1 - 32)
4
(3-5)
9
(5-14)
27
(16-44)
20
(12-32)
13
(7-21)
17
(8 - 28)
6
(3-10)
13
(7-21)
19
(12-31)
31
(23 - 47)
45
(23 - 72)
18
(10-29)
3
(2-5)
8
(5-13)
24
(14-39)
17
(10-27)
12
(6 - 20)
15
(6 - 25)
6
(3-9)
12
(6-19)
18
(1 1 - 28)
26
(19-39)
41
(19-65)
16
(9 - 26)
3
(2-4)
7
(4-12)
23
(13-37)
13
(7-21)
9
(4-15)
11
(3-18)
4
(2-7)
9
(4-14)
13
(7 - 20)
12
(8-19)
30
(1 1 - 49)
12
(6 - 20)
2
(1-3)
6
(3-9)
17
(9 - 27)
Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 15%
10
(4-16)
6
(1-11)
7
(0-15)
3
(0-5)
6
(1-11)
11
(4-17)
16
(2 - 29)
9
(3-16)
5
(1 -10)
6
(0-14)
2
(0-5)
5
(1-10)
9
(3-15)
15
(2 - 27)
8
(2-14)
5
(1 -10)
6
(0-13)
2
(0-5)
5
(0-10)
8
(3-14)
12
(1 - 24)
6
(1-11)
5
(1-9)
5
(0-11)
2
(0-4)
5
(0-9)
6
(1 - 12)
8
(0-17)
6
(1-11)
4
(0-8)
4
(0-10)
2
(0-3)
3
(0-7)
6
(1-11)
8
(0-17)
5
(1-10)
3
(0-7)
4
(0-9)
1
(0-3)
3
(0-7)
5
(1 - 10)
8
(0-15)
4
(0-9)
3
(0-6)
3
(0-8)
1
(0-3)
3
(0-6)
5
(1-9)
6
(0-13)
3
(0-7)
2
(0-5)
2
(0-6)
1
(0-2)
2
(0-5)
3
(0-7)
3
(0-6)
Abt Associates Inc.
C-13
December 2006
-------
Location
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, DC
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, DC
Number of Active Children (in 1000s) Estimated to Experience at Least One Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet
the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
19
(2 - 38)
8
(2-15)
2
(0-3)
4
(1-7)
13
(4 - 22)
0.084/3
17
(2 - 35)
7
(1 - 14)
1
(0-3)
3
(0-6)
11
(3-19)
0.080/4
16
(1 - 32)
7
(1 - 13)
1
(0-2)
3
(0-6)
10
(3-19)
0.074/5
11
(0 - 24)
5
(0-10)
1
(0-2)
2
(0-5)
8
(1-15)
0.074/4
11
(0 - 25)
5
(0-10)
1
(0-2)
2
(0-5)
7
(1-14)
0.074/3
10
(0 - 24)
4
(0-9)
1
(0-2)
2
(0-4)
6
(1-13)
0.070/4
9
(0-21)
4
(0-8)
1
(0-1)
2
(0-4)
6
(0-12)
0.064/4
7
(0-16)
3
(0-6)
0
(0-1)
1
(0-3)
4
(0-9)
Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 20%
2
(0-5)
1
(0-4)
1
(0-4)
0
(0-2)
1
(0-3)
2
(0-6)
3
(0-9)
3
(0-11)
1
(0-5)
0
(0-1)
1
(0-2)
3
(0-7)
2
(0-5)
1
(0-3)
1
(0-4)
0
(0-1)
1
(0-3)
2
(0-5)
2
(0-8)
2
(0-10)
1
(0-4)
0
(0-1)
1
(0-2)
2
(0-6)
1
(0-4)
1
(0-3)
1
(0-3)
0
(0-1)
1
(0-3)
2
(0-5)
2
(0-7)
2
(0-9)
1
(0-4)
0
(0-1)
0
(0-2)
2
(0-6)
1
(0-4)
1
(0-3)
1
(0-3)
0
(0-1)
1
(0-3)
1
(0-4)
1
(0-5)
1
(0-6)
1
(0-3)
0
(0-1)
0
(0-1)
1
(0-5)
1
(0-3)
0
(0-2)
0
(0-3)
0
(0-1)
0
(0-2)
1
(0-3)
1
(0-5)
1
(0-7)
1
(0-3)
0
(0-1)
0
(0-1)
1
(0-4)
1
(0-3)
0
(0-2)
0
(0-2)
0
(0-1)
0
(0-2)
1
(0-3)
1
(0-4)
1
(0-6)
1
(0-3)
0
(0-0)
0
(0-1)
1
(0-4)
1
(0-3)
0
(0-2)
0
(0-2)
0
(0-1)
0
(0-2)
1
(0-3)
1
(0-4)
1
(0-6)
0
(0-2)
0
(0-0)
0
(0-1)
1
(0-3)
0
(0-2)
0
(0-1)
0
(0-1)
0
(0-1)
0
(0-1)
0
(0-2)
0
(0-2)
1
(0-4)
0
(0-2)
0
(0-0)
0
(0-1)
0
(0-2)
"Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) numbers of children. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty
surrounding the O3 coefficient.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest 1000.
"These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 - 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr
average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
Abt Associates Inc.
C-14
December 2006
-------
Table C-10. Number of Active Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response
Associated with Exposure to 03 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for
Location-Specific O3 Seasons: Based on Adjusting 2002 03 Concentrations*
Location
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, DC
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
Number of Active Children (in 1000s) Estimated to Experience at Least One Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet
the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
0.084/3
0.080/4
0.074/5
0.074/4
0.074/3
0.070/4
0.064/4
Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 10%
44
(33 - 63)
52
(40-71)
87
(66-123)
30
(24-41)
55
(42 - 76)
32
(23 - 48)
59
(44 - 92)
172
(128-250)
69
(55 - 93)
11
(8-16)
36
(29 - 48)
81
(63-112)
43
(32 - 62)
45
(34 - 64)
80
(60-116)
26
(20 - 37)
48
(36 - 69)
28
(20 - 44)
57
(42 - 89)
159
(116-236)
63
(48 - 86)
10
(7-15)
33
(26 - 45)
70
(53-100)
38
(27 - 56)
45
(34 - 63)
74
(54-109)
26
(19-36)
47
(35 - 68)
27
(19-42)
49
(37 - 76)
148
(106-223)
60
(46 - 84)
9
(7-14)
31
(24 - 43)
70
(52-100)
33
(23 - 50)
42
(31 - 60)
65
(46 - 99)
21
(16-32)
45
(34 - 66)
22
(15-35)
34
(25 - 53)
113
(77-179)
49
(36 - 72)
7
(5-11)
26
(19-37)
60
(44 - 89)
30
(21 - 47)
34
(24 - 52)
58
(40-91)
20
(15-30)
36
(25 - 56)
21
(14-34)
34
(25 - 52)
118
(80-185)
47
(34 - 69)
7
(5-11)
24
(18-35)
55
(40 - 83)
30
(21 - 47)
31
(21 - 47)
54
(37 - 85)
18
(12-27)
32
(22-51)
19
(13-31)
33
(24 - 50)
110
(74-175)
43
(31 - 65)
6
(5-10)
22
(16-33)
49
(34 - 76)
25
(17-41)
29
(20 - 45)
49
(32 - 78)
17
(1 1 - 26)
31
(21 - 48)
18
(1 1 - 28)
26
(19-40)
100
(65-161)
40
(28 - 62)
6
(4-9)
20
(14-31)
46
(32 - 73)
20
(12-32)
22
(14-35)
36
(22 - 59)
13
(8-21)
23
(14-37)
12
(7 - 20)
14
(9-21)
75
(46-123)
30
(20 - 49)
4
(3-6)
15
(10-24)
36
(23 - 58)
Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 15%
17
(10-25)
22
(13-31)
34
(20 - 50)
13
(8-18)
22
(13-32)
11
(5-17)
17
(3 - 30)
16
(9 - 24)
18
(10-26)
30
(17-45)
10
(6-15)
18
(11-27)
9
(3-15)
16
(3 - 29)
13
(7-21)
18
(10-26)
27
(14-41)
10
(6-15)
18
(10-26)
8
(3-14)
14
(2 - 25)
11
(5-18)
16
(9 - 24)
22
(10-35)
8
(4-12)
17
(9 - 25)
6
(1-11)
9
(1-17)
10
(4-16)
12
(6-19)
19
(8-31)
7
(4-11)
12
(6 - 20)
6
(1-11)
9
(1-17)
10
(4-16)
10
(4-17)
17
(6 - 29)
6
(3-10)
10
(4-17)
5
(1-10)
8
(1-16)
8
(2-13)
9
(4-16)
15
(4 - 26)
5
(2-9)
9
(3-16)
5
(1-9)
6
(0-13)
5
(0-10)
6
(1-11)
10
(1 -19)
4
(1-7)
6
(1-12)
3
(0-6)
3
(0-7)
Abt Associates Inc.
C-15
December 2006
-------
Location
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, DC
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, DC
Number of Active Children (in 1000s) Estimated to Experience at Least One Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet
the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
64
(36 - 97)
29
(19-41)
4
(2-6)
16
(10-22)
33
(21 - 48)
0.084/3
57
(30 - 89)
25
(16-36)
3
(1-5)
14
(9-19)
27
(16-40)
0.080/4
51
(25-81)
24
(15-35)
3
(1-5)
12
(8-18)
27
(15-40)
0.074/5
35
(12-60)
18
(10-27)
2
(1-4)
10
(6-15)
22
(1 1 - 33)
0.074/4
37
(14-63)
17
(9 - 26)
2
(1-4)
9
(5-13)
19
(9 - 30)
0.074/3
34
(1 1 - 58)
15
(7 - 23)
2
(0-3)
8
(4-12)
16
(7 - 26)
0.070/4
29
(7 - 52)
13
(6 - 22)
2
(0-3)
7
(3-11)
15
(6 - 25)
0.064/4
20
(2 - 39)
9
(2-16)
1
(0-2)
4
(1-8)
10
(2-19)
Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 20%
4
(1 -10)
7
(3-14)
9
(3-19)
4
(2-7)
6
(2-12)
2
(1-6)
3
(0-10)
17
(5 - 37)
10
(4-18)
1
(0-2)
5
(2-9)
10
(4 - 20)
4
(1-9)
5
(2-11)
8
(2-17)
3
(1-6)
5
(1 -10)
2
(0-5)
3
(0-9)
14
(3 - 32)
8
(3-15)
1
(0-2)
4
(2-8)
7
(2-15)
3
(1-7)
5
(2-11)
6
(1-15)
3
(1-5)
4
(1 -10)
2
(0-5)
2
(0-8)
12
(2 - 28)
7
(2-14)
1
(0-2)
4
(1-7)
7
(2-15)
2
(0-6)
5
(2-9)
5
(1-12)
2
(0-4)
4
(1-9)
1
(0-4)
1
(0-5)
7
(0 - 20)
4
(1 - 10)
0
(0-1)
2
(1-5)
5
(1 - 12)
2
(0-5)
3
(1-7)
4
(0-10)
2
(0-4)
2
(0-7)
1
(0-3)
1
(0-5)
7
(1-21)
4
(1-9)
0
(0-1)
2
(0-5)
4
(1-11)
2
(0-5)
2
(0-6)
3
(0-9)
1
(0-3)
2
(0-6)
1
(0-3)
1
(0-5)
6
(0-19)
3
(0-8)
0
(0-1)
2
(0-4)
3
(0-9)
1
(0-4)
2
(0-5)
3
(0-8)
1
(0-3)
2
(0-5)
1
(0-3)
1
(0-4)
5
(0-16)
3
(0-7)
0
(0-1)
1
(0-4)
3
(0-8)
1
(0-3)
1
(0-3)
1
(0-6)
1
(0-2)
1
(0-4)
0
(0-2)
0
(0-2)
3
(0-12)
2
(0-5)
0
(0-1)
1
(0-2)
2
(0-6)
"Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) numbers of children. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty
surrounding the O3 coefficient.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest 1000.
"These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr
average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
Abt Associates Inc.
C-16
December 2006
-------
Table C-11. Percent of Active Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response
Associated with Exposure to 03 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for
Location-Specific O3 Seasons: Based on Adjusting 2004 03 Concentrations*
Location
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, DC
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Percent of Active Children Estimated to Experience at Least One Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the
Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
0.084/3
0.080/4
0.074/5
0.074/4
0.074/3
0.070/4
0.064/4
Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 10%
6.7%
(4.6% -10.4%)
4.5%
(2.8% - 7.2%)
3.2%
(1.8% -5. 2%)
4%
(2.4% - 6.5%)
4.3%
(2.7% - 7%)
6.5%
(4.6% - 9.9%)
3.6%
(2.6% - 5.6%)
3.9%
(2.4% - 6.4%)
5.4%
(3.5% - 8.6%)
3.7%
(2.8% - 5.9%)
4.8%
(3.1% -7.8%)
5.9%
(4% - 9.2%)
6.5%
(4.5% -10.2%)
3.9%
(2.4% - 6.4%)
3%
(1.6% -4.8%)
3.6%
(2.1% -5. 8%)
3.9%
(2.3% - 6.3%)
5.8%
(4.1% -9%)
3.3%
(2.5% - 5.2%)
3.6%
(2.1% -5.9%)
4.9%
(3.1% -7.9%)
3.5%
(2.6% - 5.5%)
4.4%
(2.7% - 7.2%)
5.2%
(3.4% - 8.2%)
5.7%
(3. 8% -9.1%)
3.9%
(2.3% - 6.3%)
2.7%
(1.5% -4.4%)
3.4%
(2% - 5.6%)
3.7%
(2.2% - 6%)
5.6%
(3.8% - 8.7%)
2.9%
(2.1% -4.5%)
3.4%
(1 .9% - 5.4%)
4.6%
(2.9% - 7.5%)
3.1%
(2.4% - 5%)
4.1%
(2.5% - 6.7%)
5.1%
(3.3% -8.1%)
4.9%
(3.1% -7. 9%)
3.7%
(2.2% - 5.9%)
2.4%
(1.2% -3.8%)
2.8%
(1 .5% - 4.4%)
3.5%
(2.1% -5.7%)
4.6%
(3% - 7.3%)
2.1%
(1 .6% - 3.2%)
2.5%
(1 .3% - 4%)
3.8%
(2.2% -6.1%)
2.5%
(1 .9% - 3.8%)
3.4%
(2% - 5.5%)
4.3%
(2.6% - 6.9%)
4.5%
(2.8% - 7.3%)
3%
(1.7% -4.9%)
2.1%
(1%-3.4%)
2.6%
(1 .4% - 4.2%)
2.9%
(1 .6% - 4.6%)
4.4%
(2.9% - 7%)
2.1%
(1.5% -3.1%)
2.6%
(1 .4% - 4.2%)
3.6%
(2.1% -5.9%)
2.3%
(1 .8% - 3.6%)
3.2%
(1 .8% - 5.2%)
4%
(2.4% - 6.4%)
4.4%
(2.8% - 7.2%)
2.7%
(•\A%-4.4%)
2%
(0.9% - 3.2%)
2.4%
(1 .2% - 3.9%)
2.6%
(1.3% -4.1%)
4%
(2.5% - 6.3%)
1 .9%
(1 .4% - 2.9%)
2.5%
(1 .2% - 3.9%)
3.3%
(1 .9% - 5.4%)
2.1%
(1 .6% - 3.3%)
2.9%
(1 .6% - 4.7%)
3.5%
(2.1% -5.7%)
3.8%
(2.2% -6.1%)
2.5%
(1.3% -4.1%)
1 .8%
(0.7% - 2.8%)
2.2%
(1.1% -3.6%)
2.4%
(1 .2% - 3.9%)
3.6%
(2.3% - 5.8%)
1 .6%
(1.1% -2.4%)
2.2%
(1.1% -3.5%)
3%
(1 .7% - 4.9%)
1 .8%
(1 .4% - 2.7%)
2.7%
(1 .4% - 4.2%)
3.4%
(1 .9% - 5.4%)
2.9%
(1.6% -4.6%)
1 .9%
(0.8% -3.1%)
1 .2%
(0.3% -2.1%)
1 .7%
(0.7% - 2.7%)
1 .8%
(0.8% - 2.9%)
2.6%
(1 .5% - 4.2%)
0.8%
(0.5% - 1 .2%)
1 .6%
(0.6% - 2.7%)
2.3%
(1 .2% - 3.7%)
1 .3%
(1 % - 1 .9%)
2.1%
(1 % - 3.3%)
2.5%
(1 .3% - 4%)
Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 15%
2.2%
(0.8% - 3.6%)
1 .3%
(0.3% - 2.4%)
0.8%
(0% - 1 .7%)
1.1%
(0.1% -2.1%)
1 .2%
(0.2% - 2.3%)
2.2%
(0.9% - 3.5%)
2.1%
(0.8% - 3.5%)
1.1%
(0.2% -2.1%)
0.7%
(0% - 1 .5%)
0.9%
(0.1% -1.9%)
1%
(0.1% -2%)
1 .8%
(0.6% -3.1%)
1 .7%
(0.5% - 3%)
1%
(0.2% - 2%)
0.7%
(0% - 1 .4%)
0.9%
(0% - 1 .8%)
1%
(0.1% -1.9%)
1 .7%
(0.5% - 3%)
1 .4%
(0.3% - 2.5%)
1%
(0.1% -1.9%)
0.6%
(0% - 1 .3%)
0.7%
(0% - 1 .4%)
0.9%
(0.1% -1.8%)
1 .3%
(0.3% - 2.4%)
1 .2%
(0.2% - 2.3%)
0.7%
(0% - 1 .6%)
0.5%
(0%-1.1%)
0.6%
(0% - 1 .4%)
0.7%
(0% - 1 .5%)
1.2%
(0.2% - 2.3%)
1 .2%
(0.2% - 2.3%)
0.7%
(0% - 1 .4%)
0.4%
(0%-1.1%)
0.6%
(0% - 1 .3%)
0.6%
(0% - 1 .3%)
1.1%
(0.1% -2.1%)
1%
(0.1% -1.9%)
0.6%
(0% - 1 .3%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.9%)
0.5%
(0% - 1 .2%)
0.6%
(0% - 1 .3%)
1%
(0.1% -1.9%)
0.7%
(0% - 1 .5%)
0.4%
(0% - 1 %)
0.3%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.9%)
0.4%
(0% - 1 %)
0.6%
(0% - 1 .4%)
Abt Associates Inc.
C-17
December 2006
-------
Location
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, DC
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, DC
Percent of Active Children Estimated to Experience at Least One Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the
Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
1%
(0.1% -1.8%)
1%
(0.1% -2.1%)
1 .6%
(0.4% - 2.8%)
1.1%
(0.1% -1.9%)
1 .3%
(0.2% - 2.5%)
1 .9%
(0.6% - 3.2%)
0.084/3
0.9%
(0.1% -1.7%)
0.9%
(0.1% -1.9%)
1 .4%
(0.3% - 2.5%)
1%
(0.1% -1.7%)
1 .2%
(0.1% -2.3%)
1 .5%
(0.4% - 2.8%)
0.080/4
0.8%
(0.1% -1.5%)
0.8%
(0.1% -1.7%)
1 .3%
(0.2% - 2.4%)
0.9%
(0.1% -1.6%)
1.1%
(0.1% -2.1%)
1 .5%
(0.4% - 2.7%)
0.074/5
0.5%
(0%-1.1%)
0.6%
(0%-1.3%)
1%
(0.1% -2%)
0.6%
(0%-1.2%)
0.8%
(0%-1.8%)
1 .2%
(0.2% - 2.2%)
0.074/4
0.5%
(0%-1%)
0.6%
(0%-1.4%)
0.9%
(0%-1.9%)
0.6%
(0%-1.2%)
0.8%
(0%-1.7%)
1.1%
(0.1% -2.1%)
0.074/3
0.5%
(0%-1%)
0.6%
(0%-1.3%)
0.8%
(0%-1.7%)
0.5%
(0%-1.1%)
0.7%
(0%-1.5%)
0.9%
(0.1% -1.8%)
0.070/4
0.4%
(0% - 0.8%)
0.5%
(0%-1.2%)
0.7%
(0%-1.6%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.9%)
0.6%
(0%-1.4%)
0.8%
(0.1% -1.8%)
0.064/4
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.9%)
0.5%
(0%-1.2%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.5%
(0%-1.1%)
0.6%
(0%-1.3%)
Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 20%
0.4%
(0.1% -1.2%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.5%
(0.1% -1.2%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.9%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.8%)
0.4%
(0% - 1 %)
0.4%
(0.1% -1.2%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.4%
(0.1% -1%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.8%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.9%)
0.3%
(0%-1%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.3%
(0% - 1 %)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.9%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.8%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.6%)
0%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0%
(0% - 0.3%)
0%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
"Percents are median (0.5 fractile) percents of children. Percents in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty
surrounding the O3 coefficient.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 - 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr
average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
Abt Associates Inc.
C-18
December 2006
-------
Table C-12. Percent of Active Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response
Associated with Exposure to 03 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for
Location-Specific O3 Seasons: Based on Adjusting 2002 03 Concentrations*
Location
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, DC
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Percent of Active Children Estimated to Experience at Least One Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the
Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
0.084/3
0.080/4
0.074/5
0.074/4
0.074/3
0.070/4
0.064/4
Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 10%
9.8%
(7.4% -14.2%)
10.9%
(8.4% -15%)
10.2%
(7.7% -14.5%)
12.3%
(9.6% -16.7%)
1 1 .4%
(8.8% -15.8%)
6.7%
(4.8% -10.1%)
3.6%
(2.7% - 5.6%)
9.5%
(7.1% -13.8%)
13%
(10.3% -17.5%)
7%
(5.5% -10.4%)
13.4%
(10.7% -17.8%)
1 1 .9%
(9.2% -16.4%)
9.7%
(7.2% -14%)
9.6%
(7.2% -13.5%)
9.4%
(7% -13.6%)
10.8%
(8.3% -15.2%)
10.1%
(7.6% -14.4%)
5.9%
(4.2% - 9.2%)
3.5%
(2.6% - 5.4%)
8.8%
(6.4% -13%)
1 1 .7%
(9.1% -16.2%)
6.3%
(4.9% - 9.6%)
12.3%
(9. 6% -16. 6%)
10.3%
(7.8% -14.7%)
8.4%
(6.1% -12.6%)
9.4%
(7.1% -13.3%)
8.7%
(6.4% -12.8%)
10.5%
(8% -14.8%)
9.8%
(7.3% -14.1%)
5.7%
(3.9% - 8.8%)
3%
(2.2% - 4.7%)
8.2%
(5.9% -12.3%)
1 1 .3%
(8.7% -15.7%)
5.9%
(4.5% - 9%)
11.5%
(8. 9% -15. 9%)
10.2%
(7.7% -14.6%)
7.3%
(5.2% -11. 3%)
8.8%
(6.5% -12.7%)
7.6%
(5.4% -11. 6%)
8.8%
(6.4% -13%)
9.4%
(7% -13. 8%)
4.6%
(3.1% -7.3%)
2.1%
(1 .5% - 3.2%)
6.3%
(4.2% - 9.9%)
9.3%
(6.8% -13.6%)
4.8%
(3.6% - 7.5%)
9.6%
(7. 2% -13. 9%)
8.8%
(6.5% -13.1%)
6.8%
(4.7% -10.5%)
7.3%
(5.1% -10.9%)
6.8%
(4.7% -10.6%)
8.4%
(6% -12. 5%)
7.5%
(5.3% -11. 6%)
4.4%
(2.9% - 7%)
2.1%
(1 .5% - 3.2%)
6.5%
(4.4o/0_io.2%)
8.8%
(6. 4% -13.1%)
4.5%
(3.4% -7.1%)
9%
(6. 7% -13. 2%)
8.1%
(5. 8% -12. 2%)
6.7%
(4.6% -10.5%)
6.5%
(4.5% - 9.9%)
6.3%
(4.3% -10%)
7.3%
(5.1% -11. 2%)
6.7%
(4.6% -10.6%)
4.1%
(2.7% - 6.5%)
2%
(1.5% -3.1%)
6.1%
(4.1% -9.7%)
8%
(5. 7% -12. 2%)
4.2%
(3.2% - 6.7%)
8.2%
(5. 9% -12. 3%)
7.2%
(5% -11.1%)
5.7%
(3.7% -9.1%)
6.1%
(4.2% - 9.5%)
5.7%
(3.8% - 9.2%)
6.8%
(4.7% -10.7%)
6.4%
(4.3% -10.1%)
3.7%
(2.4% - 5.9%)
1 .6%
(1 .2% - 2.4%)
5.5%
(3.6% - 8.9%)
7.5%
(5. 3% -11. 6%)
3.7%
(2.8% - 5.9%)
7.5%
(5.3% -11. 5%)
6.8%
(4. 7% -10. 7%)
4.4%
(2.7% - 7.2%)
4.5%
(2.8% - 7.3%)
4.3%
(2.6% - 7%)
5.3%
(3.5% - 8.6%)
4.8%
(3% - 7.8%)
2.6%
(1 .5% - 4.2%)
0.8%
(0.6% - 1 .3%)
4.2%
(2.5% - 6.8%)
5.7%
(3.8% - 9.2%)
2.7%
(2% - 4.2%)
5.6%
(3.7% - 9%)
5.2%
(3.4% - 8.5%)
Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 15%
3.7%
(2.1% -5.6%)
4.6%
(2.8% - 6.5%)
4%
(2.3% - 5.8%)
5.1%
(3.3% - 7.3%)
4.5%
(2.8% - 6.6%)
2.3%
(1 % - 3.6%)
3.6%
(2.1% -5.5%)
3.8%
(2.2% - 5.6%)
3.5%
(2% - 5.3%)
4.2%
(2.6% - 6.2%)
3.8%
(2.2% - 5.7%)
1 .9%
(0.7% - 3.2%)
3%
(1 .5% - 4.6%)
3.7%
(2.1% -5.5%)
3.1%
(1 .6% - 4.8%)
4%
(2.4% - 6%)
3.7%
(2.1% -5.5%)
1 .8%
(0.6% - 3%)
2.4%
(1.1% -4%)
3.4%
(1.9% -5.1%)
2.6%
(1 .2% - 4.2%)
3.2%
(1 .7% - 4.9%)
3.5%
(2% - 5.3%)
1 .3%
(0.3% - 2.4%)
2.2%
(0.8% - 3.6%)
2.5%
(1 .2% - 4%)
2.2%
(0.9% - 3.7%)
2.9%
(1 .5% - 4.6%)
2.5%
(1.2% -4.1%)
1 .3%
(0.3% - 2.3%)
2.2%
(0.8% - 3.6%)
2.1%
(0.9% - 3.5%)
2%
(0.7% - 3.4%)
2.4%
(1.1% -3.9%)
2.1%
(0.9% - 3.6%)
1.1%
(0.2% -2.1%)
1 .7%
(0.4% - 3%)
2%
(0.8% - 3.3%)
1 .7%
(0.5% - 3%)
2.2%
(0.9% - 3.6%)
2%
(0.7% - 3.4%)
1%
(0.1% -1.9%)
1 .2%
(0.1% -2.3%)
1 .3%
(0.3% - 2.4%)
1.1%
(0.1% -2.2%)
1 .6%
(0.4% - 2.8%)
1 .3%
(0.2% - 2.5%)
0.6%
(0% - 1 .4%)
Abt Associates Inc.
C-19
December 2006
-------
Location
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, DC
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St. Louis
Washington, DC
Percent of Active Children Estimated to Experience at Least One Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the
Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
1%
(0.2% -1.8%)
3.5%
(2% - 5.4%)
5.5%
(3.6% - 7.8%)
2.5%
(1.2% -3.8%)
5.8%
(3.8% -8.1%)
4.9%
(3% - 7%)
0.084/3
1%
(0.2% -1.8%)
3.2%
(1.7% -4. 9%)
4.8%
(3% - 6.8%)
2.2%
(1%-3.4%)
5.1%
(3.2% - 7.2%)
4%
(2.3% - 5.9%)
0.080/4
0.8%
(0.1% -1.5%)
2.8%
(1.4% -4. 5%)
4.5%
(2.7% - 6.5%)
2%
(0.8% -3.1%)
4.6%
(2.9% - 6.7%)
3.9%
(2.3% - 5.8%)
0.074/5
0.5%
(0%-1.1%)
1 .9%
(0.7% - 3.3%)
3.4%
(1.8% -5.2%)
1 .5%
(0.4% - 2.5%)
3.6%
(2.1% -5.4%)
3.2%
(1 .7% - 4.9%)
0.074/4
0.5%
(0%-1%)
2.1%
(0.8% - 3.5%)
3.1%
(1.6% -4.9%)
1 .4%
(0.3% - 2.3%)
3.3%
(1 .8% - 5%)
2.8%
(1 .4% - 4.4%)
0.074/3
0.5%
(0%-1%)
1 .9%
(0.6% - 3.2%)
2.7%
(1 .3% - 4.4%)
1 .2%
(0.3% - 2.2%)
2.9%
(1 .5% - 4.5%)
2.4%
(1%-3.9%)
0.070/4
0.4%
(0% - 0.8%)
1 .6%
(0.4% - 2.9%)
2.5%
(1.1% -4.1%)
1.1%
(0.2% -1.9%)
2.5%
(1.2% -4.1%)
2.2%
(0.8% - 3.6%)
0.064/4
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
1.1%
(0.1% -2. 2%)
1 .7%
(0.4% - 3%)
0.7%
(0%-1.3%)
1 .7%
(0.5% - 2.9%)
1 .5%
(0.3% - 2.7%)
Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 20%
1%
(0.3% -2.1%)
1 .5%
(0.7% - 2.9%)
1.1%
(0.3% - 2.3%)
1 .6%
(0.6% - 3%)
1 .3%
(0.4% - 2.6%)
0.5%
(0.1% -1.3%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.9%
(0.3% - 2%)
1 .8%
(0.8% - 3.3%)
0.6%
(0.1% -1.4%)
1 .9%
(0.8% - 3.5%)
1 .5%
(0.6% - 2.9%)
1%
(0.3% -2.1%)
1.1%
(0.4% - 2.3%)
0.9%
(0.2% - 2%)
1 .2%
(0.4% - 2.4%)
1%
(0.3% -2.1%)
0.4%
(0.1% -1.1%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.8%
(0.2% - 1 .8%)
1 .4%
(0.5% - 2.8%)
0.5%
(0.1% -1.2%)
1 .6%
(0.6% - 3%)
1.1%
(0.3% - 2.3%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .7%)
1.1%
(0.4% - 2.2%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .7%)
1.1%
(0.3% - 2.2%)
0.9%
(0.2% - 2%)
0.4%
(0% - 1 %)
0.1%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.6%
(0.1% -1.6%)
1 .3%
(0.4% - 2.6%)
0.4%
(0%-1.1%)
1 .3%
(0.5% - 2.7%)
1.1%
(0.3% - 2.2%)
0.5%
(0.1% -1.4%)
1%
(0.3% - 2%)
0.6%
(0.1% -1.4%)
0.7%
(0.1% -1.7%)
0.9%
(0.2% - 1 .9%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.8%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.4%
(0%-1.1%)
0.8%
(0.2% - 1 .9%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.8%)
0.9%
(0.2% - 2%)
0.8%
(0.2% - 1 .8%)
0.4%
(0%-1.2%)
0.6%
(0.1% -1.4%)
0.4%
(0% - 1 .2%)
0.7%
(0.1% -1.6%)
0.5%
(0% - 1 .4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.4%
(0%-1.1%)
0.7%
(0.1% -1.7%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.8%)
0.8%
(0.2% - 1 .8%)
0.6%
(0.1% -1.5%)
0.4%
(0% - 1 .2%)
0.5%
(0.1% -1.2%)
0.4%
(0%-1.1%)
0.5%
(0% - 1 .3%)
0.4%
(0% - 1 .2%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.3%
(0% - 1 %)
0.6%
(0.1% -1.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.6%
(0.1% -1.6%)
0.5%
(0.1% -1.3%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.9%)
0.4%
(0.1% -1.1%)
0.3%
(0% - 1 %)
0.4%
(0% - 1 .2%)
0.4%
(0%-1.1%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.9%)
0.5%
(0.1% -1.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.5%
(0.1% -1.4%)
0.4%
(0% - 1 .2%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.9%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.8%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.9%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.9%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.8%)
"Percents are median (0.5 fractile) percents of children. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty
surrounding the O3 coefficient.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 - 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr
average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
Abt Associates Inc.
C-20
December 2006
-------
Figure C-l. Percent Reductions in Aggregate Numbers (Across All Locations) of Occurrences of Lung
Function Response Among Active School Age Children when O3 Concentrations are Reduced from Those
Just Meeting the Current Standard to Those that Would Just Meet Each Alternative Standard, for Each of
the Three Definitions of Response*
Figure C-la. Based on 2004 Data
100%
•s
ra
•c
V)
3
o
I
Ol
O)
-100%
g -150%
4-1
c
£ -200%
£
-Response: Change in FEV1>=10%
-Response: Change in FEV1>=15%
Response: Change in FEV1>=20%
2004 air 0.084/4 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4
quality
Alternative Standard
Figure C-lb. Based on 2002 Data
0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4
100%
Response: Change in FEV1>=10%
Response: Change in FEV1>=15%
Response: Change in FEV1>=20%
-250% J
2002 air 0.084/4 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4
quality
Alternative Standard
* The 8-hr average standards shown in these figures, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm
and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 ~ 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr
average. The figure also compares the current standard to a recent year of air quality.
Abt Associates Inc.
C-21
December 2006
-------
o
01
O)
c
ra
.c
O
Figure C-2. Percent Reductions of Occurrences of Decrement in FEVi >15% Among Active School Age
Children when O3 Concentrations are Reduced from Those Just Meeting the Current Standard to Those that
Would Just Meet Each Alternative Standard, Separately for Each Location*
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
•£ -20%
g -40%
u -60%
°- -80%
-100%
-120%
100%
80%
60%
40% H
20%
0%
•£ -20%
g -40%
a> -60%
°- -80%
-100%
-120%
Figure C-2a. Based on 2004 Data
2004 air
quality
0.084/4
0.084/3
0.080/4
0.074/5
0.074/4
0.074/3
0.070/4
0.064/4
Alternative Standard
-Atlanta: 63 (4 -166); 0.2% (0% - 0.4%)
Chicago: 53 (0 -158); 0.1 % (0% - 0.3%)
-Detroit: 38 (1 -109); 0.1% (0% - 0.3%)
- Los Angeles: 189 (3 - 528); 0.1 % (0% - 0.2%)
Philadelphia: 60 (2 -160); 0.2% (0% - 0.4%)
St. Louis: 27 (1 - 73); 0.1% (0% - 0.4%)
-m- Boston: 37 (2 -104); 0.1 % (0% - 0.3%)
Cleveland: 20 (0 - 57); 0.1 % (0% - 0.3%)
-•- Houston: 51 (5 -119); 0.1 % (0% - 0.2%)
New York: 136 (3 - 396); 0.1% (0% - 0.3%)
Sacramento: 16 (0 - 45); 0.1% (0% - 0.3%)
Washington, DC: 73 (5 -197); 0.1% (0% - 0.4%)
Figure C-2b. Based on 2002 Data
2002 air
quality
0.084/4
0.084/3
0.080/4
0.074/5
0.074/4
0.074/3
0.070/4
0.064/4
Alternative Standard
-Atlanta: 159 (27 - 376); 0.2% (0% - 0.4%)
Chicago: 298 (58 - 684); 0.2% (0% - 0.5%)
- Detroit: 205 (47 - 457); 0.3% (0.1 % - 0.6%)
- Los Angeles: 342 (10 - 952); 0.1 % (0% - 0.2%)
Philadelphia: 296 (75 - 636); 0.3% (0.1% - 0.7%)
St. Louis: 133 (37 - 280); 0.3% (0.1 % - 0.6%)
-m- Boston: 186 (45 - 419); 0.3% (0.1 % - 0.6%)
Cleveland: 132 (33 - 290); 0.3% (0.1 % - 0.7%)
-•- Houston: 90 (11 - 208); 0.1 % (0% - 0.2%)
New York: 679 (112 -1607); 0.2% (0% - 0.6%)
Sacramento: 67 (6 -171); 0.1% (0% - 0.3%)
Washington, DC: 307 (68 - 690); 0.3% (0.1 % - 0.6%)
* The 8-hr average standards shown in these figures, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm
and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 ~ 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr
average. The figure also compares the current standard to a recent year of air quality. The percent changes from the
current standard (0.084/4) to a recent year of air quality were omitted for Los Angeles because they were so large in
magnitude (-289% in 2004 and -294% in 2002). The incidence (and 95% credible interval) and percent of total
incidence (and 95% credible interval) when O3 concentrations just meet the current standard are shown for each
location in the box below each figure.
Abt Associates Inc.
C-22
December 2006
-------
Figure C-3. Percent Reductions in Aggregate Numbers (Across All Locations) of Active School Age Children
Experiencing at Least One Occurrence of Lung Function Response when O3 Concentrations are Reduced
from Those Just Meeting the Current Standard to Those that Would Just Meet Each Alternative Standard,
for Each of the Three Definitions of Response*
100%
-400%
100%
Figure C-3a. Based on 2004 Data
Response: Change in FEV1>=10%
Response: Change in FEV1>=15%
Response: Change in FEV1>=20%
2004 air 0.084/4 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4
quality
Alternative Standard
Figure C-3b. Based on 2002 Data
Response: Change in FEV1>=10%
Response: Change in FEV1>=15%
Response: Change in FEV1>=20%
-400% J
2004 air 0.084/4 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4
quality
Alternative Standard
* The 8-hr average standards shown in these figures, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm
and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 ~ 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr
average. The figure also compares the current standard to a recent year of air quality.
Abt Associates Inc.
C-23
December 2006
-------
Figure C-4. Percent Reductions in Numbers of Active School Age Children Experiencing at Least One
Decrement in FEVi >15% when O3 Concentrations are Reduced from Those Just Meeting the Current
Standard to Those that Would Just Meet Each Alternative Standard, Separately for Each Location*
01
O)
c
ra
.c
O
100%
50%
-50%
-100%
-150%
Figure C-4a. Based on 2004 Data
2004 air 0.084/4
quality
0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4
Alternative Standard
0.074/3
0.070/4
-Atlanta: 10 (4 -16); 2.2% (0.8% - 3.6%)
Chicago: 7 (0 -15); 0.8% (0% -1.7%)
- Detroit: 6 (1 -11); 1.2% (0.2% - 2.3%)
- Los Angeles: 16 (2 - 29); 1 % (0.1 % -1.8%)
Philadelphia: 8 (2 -15); 1.6% (0.4% - 2.8%)
St. Louis: 4 (1 - 7); 1.3% (0.2% - 2.5%)
0.064/4
-m- Boston: 6 (1 -11); 1.3% (0.3% - 2.4%)
Cleveland: 3 (0 - 5); 1.1% (0.1% - 2.1%)
-•- Houston: 11 (4-17); 2.2% (0.9% - 3.5%)
New York: 19 (2 - 38); 1 % (0.1 % - 2.1 %)
Sacramento: 2 (0 - 3); 1.1% (0.1 % -1.9%)
Washington, DC: 13 (4 - 22); 1.9% (0.6% - 3.2%)
Figure C-4b. Based on 2002 Data
01
O)
c
ra
.c
O
s.
100%
50%
0%
-50%
-100%
-150%
_— -^^=^
^ss^==^-^--^*^*~"
^7
•x/
/
2004 air 0.084/4 0.084/3 0.080/4
quality
0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4
Alternative Standard
-•-Atlanta: 17 (10 -25); 3.7% (2.1% -5.6%)
Chicago: 34 (20 - 50); 4% (2.3% - 5.8%)
-*- Detroit: 22 (13 - 32); 4.5% (2.8% - 6.6%)
-i- Los Angeles: 17 (3 - 30); 1 % (0.2% - 1 .8%)
— Philadelphia: 29 (19-41); 5.5% (3.6% - 7.8%)
St. Louis: 16 (10 -22); 5.8% (3.8% -8.1%)
-m- Boston: 22 (1 3 - 31 ); 4.6% (2.8% - 6.5%)
<- Cleveland: 13 (8 - 18); 5.1% (3.3% -7.3%)
-•- Houston: 1 1 (5 - 1 7); 2.3% (1 % - 3.6%)
New York: 64 (36 - 97); 3.5% (2% - 5.4%)
Sacramento: 4 (2 - 6); 2.5% (1 .2% - 3.8%)
Washington, DC: 33 (21 - 48); 4.9% (3% - 7%)
** The 8-hr average standards shown in these figures, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm
and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 ~ 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr
average. The figure also compares the current standard to a recent year of air quality. The percent changes from the
current standard (0.084/4) to a recent year of air quality were omitted for Los Angeles because they were so large in
magnitude (-544% in 2004 and -537% in 2002).
The incidence (and 95% credible interval) and percent of total incidence (and 95% credible interval) when O3
concentrations just meet the current standard are shown for each location in the box below each figure.
Abt Associates Inc.
C-24
December 2006
-------
C.3 Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Exposure-Response Function on Lung Function Response Estimates
Table C-13. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Exposure-Response Function on Number of All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion
Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response (Decrease in FEV1>=15%) Associated with Exposure to a Recent Year of Air Quality and with
Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for Location-Specific O3 Seasons:
Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations*
Location
Atlanta
Chicago
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Number of All Children (in 1000s) Estimated to Experience at Least One Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards, Using Exposure-
Response Functions that are Different Combinations of Logistic and Linear (Hockeystick)**
"as is"
90%/10% Split
34
(19-51)
27
(6 - 49)
57
(37 - 79)
220
(149-298)
112
(55-176)
80%/20% Split
34
(19-51)
26
(6 - 49)
57
(37 - 80)
223
(150-300)
113
(56-178)
50%/50% Split
35
(20 - 52)
19
(6 - 49)
59
(38 - 81)
236
(155-307)
108
(58-181)
0.084/4***
90%/10% Split
20
(8 - 34)
15
(1-31)
23
(10-37)
34
(5 - 62)
43
(6 - 84)
80%/20% Split
20
(8-34)
14
(1-31)
23
(10-38)
32
(5 - 62)
42
(7 - 85)
50%/50% Split
18
(9 - 34)
6
(1-31)
21
(10-38)
21
(5-61)
26
(7 - 83)
0.074/4
90%/10% Split
12
(2 - 22)
9
(0-21)
13
(3 - 24)
17
(1 - 36)
25
(0 - 56)
80%/20% Split
11
(2 - 22)
8
(0-21)
13
(3 - 24)
16
(1 - 36)
24
(0 - 56)
50%/50% Split
8
(2 - 22)
2
(0 - 20)
9
(3 - 24)
6
(1 - 35)
8
(0 - 54)
0.064/4
90%/10% Split
6
(0-14)
5
(0-13)
7
(0-14)
6
(0-14)
14
(0 - 35)
80%/20% Split
6
(0-14)
5
(0-13)
6
(0-14)
6
(0-14)
13
(0 - 35)
50%/50% Split
2
(0-13)
1
(0-12)
2
(0-14)
1
(0-13)
2
(0 - 34)
*Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) numbers of children. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest 1000.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum
standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
Abt Associates Inc.
C-25
December 2006
-------
Table C-14. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Exposure-Response Function on Number of All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion
Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response (Decrease in FEV1>=15%) Associated with Exposure to a Recent Year of Air Quality and with
Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for Location-Specific O3 Seasons:
Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations*
Location
Atlanta
Chicago
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Number of All Children (in 1000s) Estimated to Experience at Least One Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards, Using Exposure-
Response Functions that are Different Combinations of Logistic and Linear (Hockeystick)**
"as is"
90%/10% Split
59
(40-81)
123
(83-169)
58
(38 - 80)
220
(150-297)
346
(244 - 462)
80%/20% Split
60
(40 - 82)
125
(83-170)
58
(38-81)
223
(151 -299)
350
(245 - 463)
50%/50% Split
62
(41 - 83)
131
(86-173)
60
(39 - 82)
231
(154-303)
361
(252 - 469)
0.084/4***
90%/10% Split
36
(21-54)
71
(41 -106)
24
(1 1 - 38)
35.00
(7 - 62)
142
(79-216)
80%/20% Split
37
(21-54)
72
(41 - 107)
24
(1 1 - 39)
34
(8 - 62)
145
(81 -218)
50%/50% Split
38
(22 - 56)
74
(42-110)
22
(1 1 - 39)
24
(8-61)
146
(83 - 224)
0.074/4
90%/10% Split
21
(8-34)
40
(15-66)
13
(3 - 24)
18
(1 - 35)
81
(29-138)
80%/20% Split
21
(9-34)
39
(16-67)
13
(3 - 24)
17
(1 - 35)
80
(30-139)
50%/50% Split
19
(9-35)
35
(16-68)
9
(3 - 24)
8
(1 - 34)
70
(30-140)
0.064/4
90%/10% Split
11
(1-21)
20
(2 - 40)
7
(0-14)
7
(0-14)
43
(3 - 86)
80%/20% Split
10
(1-21)
19
(2 - 40)
6
(0-14)
6
(0-14)
41
(3 - 86)
50%/50% Split
6
(1-21)
11
(2 - 39)
3
(0-14)
2
(0-14)
23
(4 - 84)
"Numbers are median (0.5 (tactile) numbers of children. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
""Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest 1000.
"""These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum
standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
Abt Associates Inc.
C-26
December 2006
-------
Table C-15. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Exposure-Response Function on Number of Asthmatic Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion
Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response (Decrease in FEV1>=10%) Associated with Exposure to a Recent Year of Air Quality and with
Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for Location-Specific O3 Seasons:
Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations*
Location
Atlanta
Chicago
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Number of Asthmatic Children (in 1000s) Estimated to Experience at Least One Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards, Using
Exposure-Response Functions that are Different Combinations of Logistic and Linear (Hockeystick)**
"as is"
90%/10% Split
12
(9-17)
14
(9 - 22)
17
(14-23)
62
(52-81)
51
(37 - 76)
80%/20% Split
12
(9-17)
14
(9 - 23)
17
(14-23)
64
(52 - 82)
53
(37 - 78)
50%/50% Split
16
(9-18)
21
(9-24)
22
(14-24)
79
(53 - 85)
71
(38 - 82)
0.084/4***
90%/10% Split
8
(6-12)
9
(5-14)
9
(6-14)
16.00
(11-25)
26
(16-42)
80%/20% Split
8
(6-13)
9
(5-15)
9
(6-14)
17
(11-26)
27
(16-43)
50%/50% Split
12
(6-13)
13
(5-16)
13
(7-15)
26
(12-28)
39
(16-46)
0.074/4
90%/10% Split
5
(3-9)
6
(3-9)
6
(4-10)
9
(6-14)
17
(9 - 28)
80%/20% Split
6
(3-9)
6
(3-10)
6
(4-10)
10
(6-15)
18
(9 - 29)
50%/50% Split
8
(3-10)
8
(3-10)
9
(4-10)
15
(7-16)
24
(9 - 30)
0.064/4
90%/10% Split
3
(2-5)
3
(1-6)
4
(2-6)
4
(2-6)
11
(4-17)
80%/20% Split
4
(2-6)
3
(1-6)
4
(2-6)
4
(2-6)
11
(4-18)
50%/50% Split
5
(2-6)
3
(1-6)
5
(2-6)
6
(2-6)
12
(4-18)
"Numbers are median (0.5 (tactile) numbers of children. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
""Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest 1000.
"""These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum
standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
Abt Associates Inc.
C-27
December 2006
-------
Table C-16. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Exposure-Response Function on Number of Asthmatic Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion
Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response (Decrease in FEV1>=10%) Associated with Exposure to a Recent Year of Air Quality and with
Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for Location-Specific O3 Seasons:
Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations*
Location
Atlanta
Chicago
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Number of Asthmatic Children (in 1000s) Estimated to Experience at Least One Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards, Using
Exposure-Response Functions that are Different Combinations of Logistic and Linear (Hockeystick)**
"as is"
90%/10% Split
18
(14-23)
40
(32 - 53)
17
(13-23)
61
(51 - 79)
118
(97-147)
80%/20% Split
18
(14-23)
41
(33 - 54)
17
(13-23)
62
(51 - 80)
120
(97-149)
50%/50% Split
22
(15-24)
49
(33 - 55)
21
(14-24)
76
(52 - 83)
136
(99-152)
0.084/4***
90%/10% Split
13
(10-18)
27
(20 - 39)
9
(6-14)
16
(11-24)
63
(47-91)
80%/20% Split
13
(10-18)
28
(21 - 40)
9
(7-14)
16
(11-25)
65
(47 - 93)
50%/50% Split
17
(10-19)
37
(21 -42)
13
(7-15)
26
(12-27)
85
(49 - 97)
0.074/4
90%/10% Split
9
(6-13)
18
(12-29)
6
(4-9)
9
(6-14)
43
(29 - 67)
80%/20% Split
9
(6-13)
19
(12-29)
6
(4-10)
10
(6-14)
44
(29 - 69)
50%/50% Split
12
(6-14)
27
(13-31)
9
(4-10)
15
(6-16)
63
(30 - 72)
0.064/4
90%/10% Split
5
(3-9)
11
(7-19)
4
(2-6)
4
(2-6)
27
(16-44)
80%/20% Split
6
(3-9)
12
(7-19)
4
(2-6)
4
(2-6)
28
(16-45)
50%/50% Split
8
(3-10)
18
(7-21)
5
(2-6)
6
(2-6)
41
(17-48)
"Numbers are median (0.5 (tactile) numbers of children. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
""Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest 1000.
"""These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum
standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
Abt Associates Inc.
C-26
December 2006
-------
Appendix D: Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" Os Concentrations: April
- September
-------
D.I Figures
Figure D-l. Estimated Annual Cases of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population
Associated with Short-Term Exposure to O3 Above Background: Single-Pollutant, Single-City Models (April
- September)
Figure D-la. Based on 2004 Air Quality
.1
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
!
i
u
t 1-
O> 01
§. E
15 15
- 3
I 2
Figure D-lb. Based on 2002 Air Quality
3
0.
O
Q.
g
8
ra
O
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
-2.0
-4.0
O
f)
I
1
"
15
0
Abt Associates
D-l
December 2006
-------
Figure D-2. Estimated Annual Cases of Cardiorespiratory Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population
Associated with Short-Term Exposure to O3 Above Background (April - September): Single-Pollutant vs.
Multi-Pollutant Models [Huang et al. (2004), additional pollutants, from left to right: none, CO, NO2, PM10,
S02]
Figure D-2a. Based on 2004 Air Quality
4.0
3.5
O
10
o>
•° 3.0
.2.
I 2-5
2
i. 2.0
£
- 1.5
S 1.0
§ 0.5
o"
o
I 0.0
01
o
01
in
ra
O
-1.0
Atlanta
Chicago Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los
Angeles
New York Philadelphia
Figure D-2b. Based on 2002 Air Quality
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
O
s?
8
•c
c
ra
3
Q.
§.
I
.2
01
o
s
o"
in
ra
O
Atlanta Chicago Cleveland Detroit
Houston Los
Angeles
New York Philadelphia
Abt Associates
D-2
December 2006
-------
Figure D-3. Estimated Annual Cases of (Non-Accidental) Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population
Associated with Short-Term Exposure to O3 Above Background (April - September): Single-City Model (left
bar) vs. Multi-City Model (right bar)
Figure D-3a. Based on 2004 Air Quality
0
o
1
3
Q.
£
CO
g
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
§ -5.0
},',
t .
' I + I it I + 1
ai
in
ra
O
s
8
0)
1
is
ro
s
§
8
s
0
"o
i
QJ
°
S
S
ro
.c
W
o
°
°
g,
s
s
"ro
"a!
1
CO
55
Figure D-3b. Based on 2002 Air Quality
O
I
•a
c
2.
c
o
1
a.
§.
"c
ra
I
ai
a:
o
o
o
8"
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
-5.0
' t •
•tit-
- + •
• +
fll
a.
8!
0
s
s
"m
-------
Figure D-4. Estimated Annual Cases of Cardiorespiratory Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population
Associated with Short-Term Exposure to O3 Above Background (April - September): Single-City Model (left
bar) vs. Multi-City Model (right bar) - Based on Huang et al. (2004)
Figure D-4a. Based on 2004 Air Quality
5 6.0
a>
•a
o
a.
£
5.0
4.0
3.0
CO
5 2.0
o 1.0
o^
o"
o
5 0.0
Q.
ra
O
Atlanta
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los
Angeles
New York Philadelphia
Figure D-4b. Based on 2002 Air Quality
_
o 6-°
g
S 50
c
o 40
1
g- 30
Q.
'c
co
> 20
"oi
o 1 0
0
o"
o
a, 0-0
Q.
01
yi 10
• •
O
Atlanta
1 1
Chicago Cleveland Detroit
Houston Los New
Angeles
York Philadelphia
Abt Associates
D-4
December 2006
-------
Figure D-5. Estimated Annual Cases of (Unscheduled) Hospital Admissions for Pneumonia in Detroit per
100,000 Relevant Population Associated with Short-Term Exposure to O3 Above Background (April -
September): Different Lag Models - Based on Ito (2003) [bars from left to right are 0-day, 1-day, 2-day, and
3-day lag models]
Figure D-5a. Based on 2004 Air Quality
'sn n
S? 40 0
5, tu-u
a>
1 30 0
2.
5 9n n
«
3 100
Q.
* 00-
c =•
g -10 0
at
o:
,-. 9n n
o
0^
g" _3Q Q
Q. -40 0
"^n n
ra -ou.u
O
-60 0
0-day 1-day 2-day 3-day
Figure D-5b. Based on 2002 Air Quality
'sn n
S? 40 0
10 ^U'U
o>
~° 300
_ra_
o 20 0
1
3 100
Q.
2 00
c =•
5 o
g -10 0
"3
_ .90 0
o ^u.u
0^
o" -30 0
S 400
-------
Figure D-6. Estimated Annual Cases of Non-Accidental Mortality Per 100,000 Relevant Population
Associated with Short-Term Exposure to "As Is" O3 Above Background for the Period April - September
(Based on Bell et al., 2004 - 95 U.S. Cities) - Total and Contribution of 24-Hour O3 Ranges
Figure D-6a. Based on 2004 Air Quality
o
•o
c
n
3
a.
o
a.
'c
n
§
n
O
3.00
2.50
D Attributable to 0.05 ppm<=ozone<0.06 ppm
n Attributable to 0.04 ppm<=ozone<0.05 ppm
• Attributable to 0.03 ppm<=ozone<0.04 ppm
D Attributable to ozoneO.03 ppm
0.00
o
Figure D-6b. Based on 2002 Air Quality
o
•o
c
n
3
a.
s.
01
a.
5.00
4.50
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
• Attributable to 0.06 ppm<=ozone<0.07 ppm
D Attributable to 0.05 ppm<=ozone<0.06 ppm
D Attributable to 0.04 ppm<=ozone<0.05 ppm
• Attributable to 0.03 ppm<=ozone<0.04 ppm
D Attributable to ozoneO.03 ppm
Abt Associates
D-6
December 2006
-------
Figure D-7. Estimated Annual Cases of Cardiorespiratory Mortality Per 100,000 Relevant Population
Associated with Short-Term Exposure to "As Is" O3 Above Background for the Period April - September
(Based on Huang et al., 2004 - 19 U.S. Cities) - Total and Contribution of 24-Hour O3 Ranges
Figure D-7a. Based on 2004 Air Quality
o
s?
o
!§
3
Q.
O
Q.
'c
n
>
Si
01
01
Q.
n
O
3.50
3.00
• Attributable to 0.05 ppm<=ozone<0.06 ppm
n Attributable to 0.04 ppm<=ozone<0.05 ppm
D Attributable to 0.03 ppm<=ozone<0.04 ppm
• Attributable to ozone O.03 ppm
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
0
-0
n
0|
o
o
1
I
01
z
Q.
Oi
•o
Figure D-7b. Based on 2002 Air Quality
• Attributable to 0.05 ppm<=ozone<0.06 ppm
n Attributable to 0.04 ppm<=ozone<0.05 ppm
D Attributable to 0.03 ppm<=ozone<0.04 ppm
n Attributable to ozone O.O ppm
Abt Associates
D-7
December 2006
-------
D.2 Tables
Table D-1. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: Atlanta, GA, April - September, 2004
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-accidental
Mortality, non-accidental
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities
(2004)
Huang et al. (2004)
Huang etal. -- 19 US
Cities (2004)
Huang etal.-- 19 US
Cities (2004)
Huang etal.-- 19 US
Cities (2004)
Huang etal.-- 19 US
Cities (2004)
Huang etal.-- 19 US
Cities (2004)
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Other Pollutants
In Model
none
none
none
none
CO
N02
PM10
S02
Health Effects Associated with O3 Above Policy Relevant Background Levels**
Incidence
6
(-26 - 38)
12
(4 - 20)
8
(-3-18)
8
(3-13)
4
(1-8)
4
(1-7)
5
(-2-11)
3
(0-7)
Incidence per 100,000
Relevant Population
0.4
(-1.8-2.6)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .4)
0.5
(-0.2 - 1 .2)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.9)
0.3
(0.1 - 0.5)
0.3
(0 - 0.5)
0.3
(-0.1 - 0.8)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
Percent of Total Incidence
0.1%
(-0.6% - 0.8%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.8%
(-0.3% - 1 .8%)
0.8%
(0.3% - 1 .3%)
0.5%
(0.1% -0.8%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.5%
(-0.2% - 1 .2%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.7%)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest
tenth.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
D-8
December 2006
-------
Table D-2. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: Atlanta, GA, April - September, 2002
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-accidental
Mortality, non-accidental
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities
(2004)
Huang et al. (2004)
Huang et al. - 19 US
Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19 US
Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19 US
Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19 US
Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19 US
Cities (2004)
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
Other Pollutants
in Model
none
none
none
none
CO
NO2
PM10
SO2
Health Effects Associated with O3 Above Policy Relevant Background Levels**
Incidence
9
(-37 - 54)
17
(6 - 29)
11
(-4 - 25)
11
(4-18)
6
(2-11)
6
(1-10)
7
(-3-16)
5
(0-9)
Incidence per 100,000
Relevant Population
0.6
(-2.5 - 3.6)
1.2
(0.4-1.9)
0.7
(-0.2 - 1 .7)
0.8
(0.3-1.2)
0.4
(0.1 - 0.7)
0.4
(0.1 - 0.7)
0.5
(-0.2-1.1)
0.3
(0 - 0.6)
Percent of Total Incidence
0.2%
(-0.8% - 1 .2%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
1.1%
(-0.4% - 2.6%)
1.2%
(0.5% - 1 .9%)
0.7%
(0.2% -1.1%)
0.6%
(0.1% -1%)
0.7%
(-0.3% - 1 .7%)
0.5%
(0% - 1 %)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest
tenth.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
D-9
December 2006
-------
Table D-3. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: Boston, MA, April - September, 2004
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-accidental
Respiratory symptoms among asthmatic
medication-users - chest tightness
Respiratory symptoms among asthmatic
medication-users — chest tightness
Respiratory symptoms among asthmatic
medication-users - chest tightness
Respiratory symptoms among asthmatic
medication-users — chest tightness
Respiratory symptoms among asthmatic
medication-users - shortness of breath
Respiratory symptoms among asthmatic
medication-users — shortness of breath
Respiratory symptoms among asthmatic
medication-users - wheeze
Study
Bell et al. - 95 US
Cities (2004)
Gent et al. (2003)
Gent et al. (2003)
Gent et al. (2003)
Gent et al. (2003)
Gent et al. (2003)
Gent et al. (2003)
Gent et al. (2003)
Ages
all
0- 12
0-12
0- 12
0-12
0- 12
0-12
0- 12
Lag
distributed lag
1-day lag
0-day lag
1-day lag
1 -day lag
1-day lag
1 -day lag
0-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
8 hr max.
1 hr max.
8 hr max.
1 hr max.
Other Pollutants
In Model
none
none
PM2.5
PM2.5
none
none
none
PM2.5
Health Effects Associated with O3 Above Policy Relevant Background Levels**
Incidence
7
(2-12)
5300
(800 - 9200)
8400
(3800-12400)
7700
(3000- 11800)
5400
(1700-8700)
5700
(700- 10200)
6300
(1200-10800)
15400
(5500 - 24200)
Incidence per 100,000
Relevant Population
1.0
(0.3 - 1 .7)
20700
(3300 - 36300)
33100
(14900-49100)
30400
(11800-46800)
21400
(6900 - 34500)
22500
(2700 - 40200)
24700
(4800 - 42500)
60800
(21800-95600)
Percent of Total Incidence
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
9.4%
(1.5%- 16.5%)
15.1%
(6.8% - 22.3%)
13.8%
(5.4% -21. 3%)
9.7%
(3.1% -15.7%)
8.2%
(1%- 14.7%)
9%
(1.8% -15.5%)
1 1 .9%
(4.3% -18.7%)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences of mortality are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences of respiratory symptom-days are rounded to the nearest 100.
Incidences of mortality per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth; incidences of respiratory symptom-days per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest 100. All percents are rounded to
the nearest tenth.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
D-10
December 2006
-------
Table D-4. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: Boston, MA, April - September, 2002
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-accidental
Respiratory symptoms among asthmatic
medication-users — chest tightness
Respiratory symptoms among asthmatic
medication-users - chest tightness
Respiratory symptoms among asthmatic
medication-users — chest tightness
Respiratory symptoms among asthmatic
medication-users - chest tightness
Respiratory symptoms among asthmatic
medication-users — shortness of breath
Respiratory symptoms among asthmatic
medication-users - shortness of breath
Respiratory symptoms among asthmatic
medication-users — wheeze
Study
Bell et al. -- 95 US
Cities (2004)
Gent et al. (2003)
Gent et al. (2003)
Gent et al. (2003)
Gent et al. (2003)
Gent et al. (2003)
Gent et al. (2003)
Gent et al. (2003)
Ages
all
0- 12
0-12
0- 12
0-12
0- 12
0-12
0- 12
Lag
distributed lag
1-day lag
0-day lag
1-day lag
1-day lag
1-day lag
1-day lag
0-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
8 hr max.
1 hr max.
8 hr max.
1 hr max.
Other Pollutants
In Model
none
none
PM2.5
PM2.5
none
none
none
PM2.5
Health Effects Associated with O3 Above Policy Relevant Background Levels**
Incidence
10
(3-17)
6900
(1100- 11800)
10800
(5000-15700)
10000
(4000 - 1 5000)
7200
(2400-11400)
7500
(900- 13200)
8300
(1700-14000)
20100
(7400-31000)
Incidence per 100,000
Relevant Population
1.5
(0.5-2.5)
27200
(4500 - 46600)
42700
(19700-62100)
39400
(1 5700 - 59400)
28400
(9300 - 44900)
29500
(3700 - 52000)
32800
(6600 - 55300)
79200
(29000- 122300)
Percent of Total Incidence
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
12.4%
(2% - 21 .2%)
19.5%
(9% - 28.3%)
17.9%
(7.1% -27%)
12.9%
(4.2% - 20.5%)
10.8%
(1 .3% - 1 9%)
1 1 .9%
(2.4% - 20.2%)
15.5%
(5.7% - 23.9%)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences of mortality are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences of respiratory symptom-days are rounded to the nearest 100.
Incidences of mortality per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth; incidences of respiratory symptom-days per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest 100. All percents are rounded to the
nearest tenth.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
D-ll
December 2006
-------
Table D-5. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: Chicago, IL, April - September, 2004
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-accidental
Mortality, non-accidental
Mortality, non-accidental
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Study
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. (2004)
Huang et al. - 19 US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19 US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19 US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19 US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19 US Cities (2004)
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
Lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Other Pollutants
In Model
none
none
none
none
none
CO
N02
PM10
S02
Health Effects Associated with O3 Above Policy Relevant Background Levels**
Incidence
49
(16-81)
394
(125-658)
148
(46 - 250)
23
(-21 - 66)
38
(14-61)
21
(6 - 36)
18
(3 - 33)
22
(-9 - 53)
15
(0-31)
Incidence per 100,000
Relevant Population
0.9
(0.3 - 1 .5)
7.3
(2.3- 12.2)
2.8
(0.9 - 4.6)
0.4
(-0.4 - 1 .2)
0.7
(0.3-1.1)
0.4
(0.1 - 0.7)
0.3
(0.1 - 0.6)
0.4
(-0.2-1)
0.3
(0 - 0.6)
Percent of Total Incidence
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
1 .9%
(0.6% -3.1%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .2%)
0.4%
(-0.4% - 1 .3%)
0.7%
(0.3% - 1 .2%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.4%
(-0.2% - 1 %)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
D-12
December 2006
-------
Table D-6. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: Chicago, IL, April - September, 2002
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-accidental
Mortality, non-accidental
Mortality, non-accidental
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Study
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. (2004)
Huang et al. - 19 US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19 US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19 US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19 US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19 US Cities (2004)
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
Lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
Other Pollutants
In Model
none
none
none
none
none
CO
NO2
PM10
SO2
Health Effects Associated with O3 Above Policy Relevant Background Levels**
Incidence
69
(23-115)
505
(161 -840)
191
(60 - 321)
32
(-29 - 93)
53
(20 - 86)
30
(9 - 50)
26
(5 - 47)
32
(-12-75)
22
(0 - 44)
Incidence per 100,000
Relevant Population
1.3
(0.4-2.1)
9.4
(3-15.6)
3.6
(1.1-6)
0.6
(-0.5-1.7)
1.0
(0.4 - 1 .6)
0.6
(0.2 - 0.9)
0.5
(0.1 -0.9)
0.6
(-0.2 - 1 .4)
0.4
(0 - 0.8)
Percent of Total Incidence
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
2.4%
(0.8% - 4%)
0.9%
(0.3% -1.5%)
0.6%
(-0.6% - 1 .8%)
1%
(0.4% -1.7%)
0.6%
(0.2% - 1 %)
0.5%
(0.1% -0.9%)
0.6%
(-0.2% - 1 .5%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.9%)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
D-13
December 2006
-------
Table D-7. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: Cleveland, OH, April - September, 2004
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-accidental
Mortality, non-accidental
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Hospital admissions, respiratory
illness
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. (2004)
Huang et al. - 19 US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19 US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19 US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19 US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz et al. (1996)
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
65+
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
avg of 1 -day and
2-day lags
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
Other Pollutants
In Model
none
none
none
none
CO
NO2
PM10
SO2
none
Health Effects Associated with O3 Above Policy Relevant Background Levels**
Incidence
27
(-17-69)
17
(6 - 28)
16
(0 - 32)
14
(5 - 22)
8
(2-13)
7
(1-12)
8
(-3-19)
6
(0-11)
59
(15- 102)
Incidence per 100,000
Relevant Population
1.9
(-1.2-5)
1.2
(0.4 - 2)
1.2
(0 - 2.3)
1.0
(0.4 - 1 .6)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.9)
0.5
(0.1 - 0.9)
0.6
(-0.2 - 1 .4)
0.4
(0 - 0.8)
27.0
(6.9 - 46.8)
Percent of Total Incidence
0.4%
(-0.2% - 0.9%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.9%
(0% - 1 .7%)
0.7%
(0.3% - 1 .2%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.4%
(-0.2% -1%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
1.5%
(0.4% - 2.6%)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
D-14
December 2006
-------
Table D-8. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: Cleveland, OH, April - September, 2002
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-accidental
Mortality, non-accidental
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Hospital admissions, respiratory
illness
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. (2004)
Huang et al. - 19 US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19 US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19 US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19 US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz et al. (1996)
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
65+
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
avg of 1 -day and
2-day lags
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
Other Pollutants
In Model
none
none
none
none
CO
NO2
PM10
SO2
none
Health Effects Associated with O3 Above Policy Relevant Background Levels**
Incidence
61
(-38-157)
38
(13-64)
36
(-1 - 72)
31
(12-49)
17
(5 - 29)
15
(3 - 27)
18
(-7 - 43)
13
(0 - 25)
106
(27- 182)
Incidence per 100,000
Relevant Population
4.3
(-2.7-11.3)
2.8
(0.9 - 4.6)
2.6
(-0.1 -5.2)
2.2
(0.8 - 3.5)
1.2
(0.4-2.1)
1.1
(0.2 - 1 .9)
1.3
(-0.5-3.1)
0.9
(0-1.8)
48.9
(12.6-84.1)
Percent of Total Incidence
0.8%
(-0.5% -2.1%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
2%
(0% - 3.9%)
1 .6%
(0.6% - 2.6%)
0.9%
(0.3% - 1 .6%)
0.8%
(0.1%- 1.4%)
1%
(-0.4% - 2.3%)
0.7%
(0% - 1 .3%)
2.7%
(0.7% - 4.6%)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
D-15
December 2006
-------
Table D-9. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: Detroit, Ml, April - September, 2004
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-accidental
Mortality, non-accidental
Mortality, non-accidental
Mortality, non-accidental
Mortality, non-accidental
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, respiratory
Hospital admissions
(unscheduled), pneumonia
Hospital admissions
(unscheduled), pneumonia
Hospital admissions
(unscheduled), pneumonia
Hospital admissions
(unscheduled), pneumonia
Hospital admissions
(unscheduled), COPD
Hospital admissions
(unscheduled), COPD
Hospital admissions
(unscheduled), COPD
Hospital admissions
(unscheduled), COPD
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Ito (2003)
Huang et al. (2004)
Huang et al. - 19 US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19 US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19 US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19 US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19 US Cities (2004)
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
65+
65+
65+
65+
65+
65+
65+
65+
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
1-day lag
2-day lag
3-day lag
0-day lag
1-day lag
2-day lag
3-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Other Pollutants
In Model
none
none
none
none
none
none
none
CO
N02
PM10
S02
none
none
none
none
none
none
none
none
none
Health Effects Associated with O3 Above Policy Relevant Background Levels**
Incidence
33
(-11-76)
17
(6 - 28)
128
(-21 - 274)
70
(22- 117)
40
(-37-116)
15
(-2-31)
14
(5 - 22)
8
(2-13)
7
(1-12)
8
(-3-19)
6
(0-11)
13
(-10-34)
-26
(-77 - 22)
-6
(-56-41)
8
(-42 - 55)
22
(-26 - 68)
-18
(-64 - 26)
17
(-27 - 59)
-3
(-48-41)
1
(-45 - 44)
Incidence per 100,000
Relevant Population
1.6
(-0.5 - 3.7)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .4)
6.2
(-1 - 13.3)
3.4
(1.1-5.7)
2.0
(-1.8-5.6)
0.7
(-0.1-1.5)
0.7
(0.3-1.1)
0.4
(0.1 - 0.6)
0.3
(0.1 - 0.6)
0.4
(-0.2 - 0.9)
0.3
(0 - 0.5)
0.6
(-0.5 - 1 .6)
-10.5
(-30.8 - 8.8)
-2.6
(-22.6- 16.5)
3.1
(-16.7-22.1)
9.0
(-10.5-27.5)
-7.1
(-25.6-10.4)
6.8
(-1 1 - 23.7)
-1.0
(-19.5-16.5)
0.4
(-18-17.8)
Percent of Total Incidence
0.4%
(-0.1% -0.8%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
1 .4%
(-0.2% - 2.9%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .2%)
0.4%
(-0.4% - 1 .2%)
0.6%
(-0.1%- 1.3%)
0.6%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.3%
(-0.1% -0.8%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
1 .6%
(-1.3% -4.3%)
-1%
(-3% - 0.9%)
-0.2%
(-2.2%- 1.6%)
0.3%
(-1.6% -2.1%)
0.9%
(-1%-2.7%)
-0.9%
(-3.2% - 1 .3%)
0.9%
(-1.4% -3%)
-0.1%
(-2. 4% -2.1%)
0.1%
(-2.3% - 2.2%)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
D-16
December 2006
-------
Table D-10. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: Detroit, Ml, April - September, 2002
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-accidental
Mortality, non-accidental
Mortality, non-accidental
Mortality, non-accidental
Mortality, non-accidental
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, respiratory
Hospital admissions
(unscheduled), pneumonia
Hospital admissions
(unscheduled), pneumonia
Hospital admissions
(unscheduled), pneumonia
Hospital admissions
(unscheduled), pneumonia
Hospital admissions
(unscheduled), COPD
Hospital admissions
(unscheduled), COPD
Hospital admissions
(unscheduled), COPD
Hospital admissions
(unscheduled), COPD
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Ito (2003)
Huang et al. (2004)
Huang et al. - 19 US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19 US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19 US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19 US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19 US Cities (2004)
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
65+
65+
65+
65+
65+
65+
65+
65+
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
1 -day lag
2-day lag
3-day lag
0-day lag
1 -day lag
2-day lag
3-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hravg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
Other Pollutants
In Model
none
none
none
none
none
none
none
CO
NO2
PM10
SO2
none
none
none
none
none
none
none
none
none
Health Effects Associated with O3 Above Policy Relevant Background Levels**
Incidence
57
(-18-131)
29
(10-48)
181
(-30 - 385)
99
(31 - 165)
69
(-64-198)
26
(-3 - 54)
24
(9 - 38)
13
(4 - 22)
11
(2-21)
14
(-5 - 33)
10
(0-19)
22
(-18-57)
-45
(-135-37)
-11
(-98 - 70)
13
(-72 - 93)
38
(-45- 116)
-31
(-112-44)
29
(-48 - 99)
-4
(-85 - 69)
2
(-78 - 75)
Incidence per 100,000
Relevant Population
2.8
(-0.9 - 6.3)
1.4
(0.5 - 2.3)
8.8
(-1.4-18.7)
4.8
(1.5-8)
3.4
(-3.1 - 9.6)
1.2
(-0.1 - 2.6)
1.1
(0.4-1.8)
0.6
(0.2- 1.1)
0.6
(0.1 - 1)
0.7
(-0.3 - 1 .6)
0.5
(0 - 0.9)
1.0
(-0.9 - 2.7)
-18.3
(-54.3-15.1)
-4.4
(-39.5-28.1)
5.4
(-29.1 - 37.4)
15.3
(-18.2-46.5)
-12.3
(-45.1 -17.7)
11.7
(-19.1 -39.9)
-1.7
(-34.2 - 27.9)
0.7
(-31 .5 - 30.2)
Percent of Total Incidence
0.6%
(-0.2% -1.4%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
1.9%
(-0.3% -4.1%)
1%
(0.3% - 1 .8%)
0.7%
(-0.7% -2.1%)
1.1%
(-0.1% -2.2%)
1%
(0.4% -1.6%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.5%
(0.1% -0.9%)
0.6%
(-0.2% - 1 .4%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.8%)
2.8%
(-2.3% - 7.2%)
-1 .8%
(-5.2% -1.5%)
-0.4%
(-3.8% - 2.7%)
0.5%
(-2.8% - 3.6%)
1.5%
(-1 .8% - 4.5%)
-1 .5%
(-5.6% - 2.2%)
1.5%
(-2.4% - 5%)
-0.2%
(-4.3% - 3.5%)
0.1%
(-3.9% - 3.8%)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
D-17
December 2006
-------
Table D-11. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: Houston, TX, April - September, 2004
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-accidental
Mortality, non-accidental
Mortality, non-accidental
Mortality, non-accidental
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities
(2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities
(2004)
Huang et al. (2004)
Huang etal. -- 19 US
Cities (2004)
Huang etal.-- 19 US
Cities (2004)
Huang etal.-- 19 US
Cities (2004)
Huang etal.-- 19 US
Cities (2004)
Huang etal.-- 19 US
Cities (2004)
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Other Pollutants
In Model
none
none
none
none
none
none
CO
NO2
PM10
SO2
Health Effects Associated with O3 Above Policy Relevant Background Levels**
Incidence
35
(2 - 67)
17
(6 - 28)
93
(9-176)
78
(24- 130)
12
(-2 - 26)
13
(5 - 20)
7
(2-12)
6
(1-11)
7
(-3-18)
5
(0-10)
Incidence per 100,000
Relevant Population
1.0
(0.1 - 2)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.8)
2.7
(0.3 - 5.2)
2.3
(0.7 - 3.8)
0.4
(0 - 0.8)
0.4
(0.1 - 0.6)
0.2
(0.1 - 0.3)
0.2
(0 - 0.3)
0.2
(-0.1 -0.5)
0.2
(0 - 0.3)
Percent of Total Incidence
0.4%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
1%
(0.1% -1.9%)
0.9%
(0.3% - 1 .4%)
0.6%
(-0.1% -1.2%)
0.6%
(0.2% - 1 %)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.4%
(-0.1% -0.8%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest
tenth.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
D-18
December 2006
-------
Table D-12. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: Houston, TX, April - September, 2002
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-accidental
Mortality, non-accidental
Mortality, non-accidental
Mortality, non-accidental
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities
(2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz- 14 US Cities
(2004)
Huang et al. (2004)
Huang et al. - 19 US
Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19 US
Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19 US
Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19 US
Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19 US
Cities (2004)
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Other Pollutants
In Model
none
none
none
none
none
none
CO
N02
PM10
S02
Health Effects Associated with O3 Above Policy Relevant Background Levels**
Incidence
29
(2 - 57)
14
(5 - 24)
85
(8-161)
71
(22 - 119)
10
(-1 - 22)
11
(4-17)
6
(2-10)
5
(1-9)
6
(-2-15)
4
(0-9)
Incidence per 100,000
Relevant Population
0.9
(0.1-1.7)
0.4
(0.1 -0.7)
2.5
(0.2 - 4.7)
2.1
(0.7 - 3.5)
0.3
(0 - 0.6)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
0.2
(0.1 -0.3)
0.2
(0 - 0.3)
0.2
(-0.1 -0.4)
0.1
(0 - 0.3)
Percent of Total Incidence
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.9%
(0.1% -1.8%)
0.8%
(0.2% - 1 .3%)
0.5%
(-0.1%- 1%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.3%
(-0.1% -0.7%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
D-19
December 2006
-------
Table D-13. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: Los Angeles, CA, April - September, 2004
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-accidental
Mortality, non-accidental
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Hospital admissions (unscheduled),
pulmonary illness — spring
Hospital admissions (unscheduled),
pulmonary illness - summer
Study
Bell et al. (2004)***
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities
(2004)***
Huang etal. (2004)***
Huang etal. - 19 US
Cities (2004)***
Huang etal.- 19 US
Cities (2004)***
Huang etal.- 19 US
Cities (2004)***
Huang etal.- 19 US
Cities (2004)***
Huang etal.- 19 US
Cities (2004)***
Linn et al. (2000)****
Linn et al. (2000)****
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
30+
30+
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Other Pollutants
In Model
none
none
none
none
CO
NO2
PM10
SO2
none
none
Health Effects Associated with O3 Above Policy Relevant Background Levels**
Incidence
62
(-149-271)
133
(45-221)
99
(1 -195)
115
(44- 185)
64
(19-108)
56
(10- 101)
68
(-26-161)
47
(0 - 94)
75
(-32-179)
46
(-60-148)
Incidence per 100,000
Relevant Population
0.6
(-1.6-2.8)
1.4
(0.5 - 2.3)
1.0
(0-2.1)
1.2
(0.5 - 1 .9)
0.7
(0.2-1.1)
0.6
(0.1-1.1)
0.7
(-0.3 - 1 .7)
0.5
(0-1)
0.9
(-0.4-2.1)
0.5
(-0.7 - 1 .8)
Percent of Total Incidence
0.2%
(-0.5%-1%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
1.3%
(0% - 2.6%)
1 .6%
(0.6% - 2.5%)
0.9%
(0.3% - 1 .5%)
0.8%
(0.1%- 1.4%)
0.9%
(-0.4% - 2.2%)
0.6%
(0% - 1 .3%)
1.7%
(-0.7% -4.1%)
1 .2%
(-1 .6% - 4%)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest
tenth.
***Los Angeles is defined in this study as Los Angeles County.
****Los Angeles is defined in this study as Los Angeles, Riverside, San Bernardino, and Orange Counties. The spring C-R function was run with April - June air quality data; the summer C-R function was run with July -
September air quality data.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
D-20
December 2006
-------
Table D-14. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: Los Angeles, CA, April - September, 2002
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-accidental
Mortality, non-accidental
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Hospital admissions (unscheduled),
pulmonary illness - spring
Hospital admissions (unscheduled),
pulmonary illness — summer
Study
Bell et al. (2004)***
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities
(2004)***
Huang et al. (2004)***
Huang et al. -- 19 US
Cities (2004)***
Huang et al. -- 19 US
Cities (2004)***
Huang et al. -- 19 US
Cities (2004)***
Huang et al. -- 19 US
Cities (2004)***
Huang et al. -- 19 US
Cities (2004)***
Linn et al. (2000)****
Linn et al. (2000)****
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
30+
30+
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Other Pollutants
In Model
none
none
none
none
CO
N02
PM10
S02
none
none
Health Effects Associated with O3 Above Policy Relevant Background Levels**
Incidence
51
(-124-224)
110
(37- 184)
82
(1 - 162)
95
(36- 153)
53
(16-90)
46
(8 - 84)
57
(-22- 134)
39
(0 - 78)
68
(-29- 162)
44
(-58- 143)
Incidence per 100,000
Relevant Population
0.5
(-1 .3 - 2.4)
1.2
(0.4 - 1 .9)
0.9
(0-1.7)
1.0
(0.4 - 1 .6)
0.6
(0.2 - 0.9)
0.5
(0.1 -0.9)
0.6
(-0.2- 1.4)
0.4
(0 - 0.8)
0.8
(-0.3- 1.9)
0.5
(-0.7-1.7)
Percent of Total Incidence
0.2%
(-0.5% - 0.8%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
1.1%
(0% - 2.2%)
1 .3%
(0.5% -2.1%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .2%)
0.6%
(0.1%- 1.1%)
0.8%
(-0.3% - 1 .8%)
0.5%
(0%- 1.1%)
1 .6%
(-0.7% - 3.7%)
1.2%
(-1.6% -3.9%)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***Los Angeles is defined in this study as Los Angeles County.
****Los Angeles is defined in this study as Los Angeles, Riverside, San Bernardino, and Orange Counties. The spring C-R function was run with April - June air quality data; the summer C-R function was run with July - September
air quality data.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
D-21
December 2006
-------
Table D-15. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: Philadelphia, PA, April - September, 2004
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-accidental
Mortality, non-accidental
Mortality, non-accidental
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Study
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Moolgavkar et al. (1995)
Moolgavkar et al. (1995)
Huang etal. (2004)
Huang et al. - 19 US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19 US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19 US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19 US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19 US Cities (2004)
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
Lag
distributed lag
1-day lag
1 -day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Other Pollutants
In Model
none
none
TSP, S02
none
none
CO
N02
PM10
S02
Health Effects Associated with O3 Above Policy Relevant Background Levels**
Incidence
23
(8 - 38)
82
(52- 112)
82
(39-124)
20
(1 - 39)
17
(6 - 27)
9
(3-16)
8
(1-15)
10
(-4 - 24)
7
(0-14)
Incidence per 100,000
Relevant Population
1.5
(0.5 - 2.5)
5.4
(3.4 - 7.4)
5.4
(2.6 - 8.2)
1.3
(0.1 - 2.6)
1.1
(0.4 - 1 .8)
0.6
(0.2-1)
0.5
(0.1 - 1)
0.7
(-0.3 - 1 .6)
0.5
(0 - 0.9)
Percent of Total Incidence
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
1%
(0.6% - 1 .4%)
1%
(0.5% - 1 .5%)
1.1%
(0.1% -2.1%)
0.9%
(0.3% - 1 .5%)
0.5%
(0.1% -0.9%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.8%)
0.5%
(-0.2% - 1 .3%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.7%)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
D-22
December 2006
-------
Table D-16. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: Philadelphia, PA, April - September, 2002
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-accidental
Mortality, non-accidental
Mortality, non-accidental
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Mortality, cardiorespiratory
Study
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Moolgavkaret al. (1995)
Moolgavkar et al. (1995)
Huang et al. (2004)
Huang et al. - 19 US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19 US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19 US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19 US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19 US Cities (2004)
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
Lag
distributed lag
1-day lag
1-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Other Pollutants
In Model
none
none
TSP, SO2
none
none
CO
NO2
PM10
SO2
Health Effects Associated with O3 Above Policy Relevant Background Levels**
Incidence
37
(12-62)
132
(83- 180)
131
(63- 198)
33
(2 - 63)
27
(10-43)
15
(4 - 25)
13
(2 - 24)
16
(-6 - 38)
11
(0 - 22)
Incidence per 100,000
Relevant Population
2.4
(0.8-4.1)
8.7
(5.5- 11.9)
8.6
(4.1 - 13.1)
2.2
(0.1 -4.1)
1.8
(0.7-2.8)
1.0
(0.3 - 1 .7)
0.9
(0.2 - 1 .6)
1.1
(-0.4 - 2.5)
0.7
(0 - 1 .5)
Percent of Total Incidence
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
1 .6%
(1%-2.2%)
1 .6%
(0.8% -2. 5%)
1 .8%
(0.1% -3.4%)
1 .5%
(0.6% -2. 3%)
0.8%
(0.2% - 1 .4%)
0.7%
(0.1% -1.3%)
0.9%
(-0.3% -2.1%)
0.6%
(0%- 1.2%)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
D-23
December 2006
-------
Table D-17. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: Sacramento, CA, April - September, 2004
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-accidental
Mortality, non-accidental
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Ages
all
all
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Other Pollutants
In Model
none
none
Health Effects Associated with O3 Above Policy Relevant Background Levels**
Incidence
12
(-36 - 59)
18
(6 - 29)
Incidence per 100,000
Relevant Population
1.0
(-3 - 4.8)
1.4
(0.5 - 2.4)
Percent of Total Incidence
0.3%
(-0.9% - 1 .4%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest
tenth.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
D-24
December 2006
-------
Table D-18. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: Sacramento, CA, April - September, 2002
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-accidental
Mortality, non-accidental
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Ages
all
all
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Other Pollutants
in Model
none
none
Health Effects Associated with O3 Above Policy Relevant Background Levels**
Incidence
16
(-48 - 78)
23
(8 - 39)
Incidence per 100,000
Relevant Population
1.3
(-3.9 - 6.4)
1.9
(0.6 - 3.2)
Percent of Total Incidence
0.4%
(-1.1% -1.9%)
0.6%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest
tenth.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
D-25
December 2006
-------
Table D-19. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: St. Louis, MO, April - September, 2004
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-accidental
Mortality, non-accidental
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Ages
all
all
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Other Pollutants
In Model
none
none
Health Effects Associated with O3 Above Policy Relevant Background Levels**
Incidence
3
(-6-13)
3
(1-5)
Incidence per 100,000
Relevant Population
1.0
(-1 .7 - 3.6)
0.9
(0.3 - 1 .5)
Percent of Total Incidence
0.2%
(-0.3% - 0.6%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest
tenth.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
D-26
December 2006
-------
Table D-20. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: St. Louis, MO, April - September, 2002
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-accidental
Mortality, non-accidental
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Ages
all
all
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Other Pollutants
In Model
none
none
Health Effects Associated with O3 Above Policy Relevant Background Levels**
Incidence
6
(-1 1 - 23)
6
(2-10)
Incidence per 100,000
Relevant Population
1.9
(-3.1 -6.7)
1.7
(0.6 - 2.8)
Percent of Total Incidence
0.3%
(-0.5% - 1 .2%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest
tenth.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
D-27
December 2006
-------
Table D-21. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: Washington, D.C., April - September, 2004
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-accidental
Study
Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)
Ages
all
Lag
distributed lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
Other Pollutants
In Model
none
Health Effects Associated with O3 Above Policy Relevant Background Levels**
Incidence
8
(3-14)
Incidence per 100,000
Relevant Population
1.5
(0.5 - 2.4)
Percent of Total Incidence
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest
tenth.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
D-28
December 2006
-------
Table D-22. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: Washington, D.C., April - September, 2002
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-accidental
Study
Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)
Ages
all
Lag
distributed lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
Other Pollutants
In Model
none
Health Effects Associated with O3 Above Policy Relevant Background Levels**
Incidence
15
(5 - 25)
Incidence per 100,000
Relevant Population
2.6
(0.9 - 4.4)
Percent of Total Incidence
0.6%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest
tenth.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
D-29
December 2006
-------
Appendix E: Estimated Health Risks Associated with Os Concentrations That Just
Meet the Current 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standard: April - September
-------
E.I Figures
Figure E-l. Estimated Annual Cases of (Non-Accidental) Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population
Associated with Short-Term Exposure to O3 Above Background When the Current 8-Hour Standard is Just
Met: Single-Pollutant, Single-City Models (April - September)
Figure E-la. Based on 2004 Air Quality
o
•D
C
I
i
&
I
&
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
-4.0
n
O
TO
15
6
TO
15
TO
1
O
'o
I
.ro
i
0
1
E
U>
Figure E-lb. Based on 2002 Air Quality
£
1
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
-4.0
8
I
CO
US
Abt Associates Inc.
E-l
December 2006
-------
Figure E-2. Estimated Annual Cases of Cardiorespiratory Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population
Associated with Short-Term Exposure to O3 Above Background When the Current 8-Hour Standard is Just
Met (April - September): Single-Pollutant vs. Multi-Pollutant Models [Huang et al. (2004), additional
pollutants, from left to right: none, CO, NO2, PM10, SO2]
Figure E-2a. Based on 2004 Air Quality
._. 3.3
O
2.8
2.3
1.8
a>
•a
c
ra
o
1
3
Q.
§.
I 1.3
O
o
o
o"
Ol
o
1/1
01
in
ra
O
0.8
0.3
-0.2
Atlanta
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los
Angeles
New York Philadelphia
Figure E-2b. Based on 2002 Air Quality
2.8
1.8
o
o>
•a
o
^
a.
§.
ra
>
§ 0.8
o"
o
oi 0.3
o
ra _r
O L
l+l + l+ltl+l
Atlanta
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los
Angeles
New York Philadelphia
Abt Associates Inc.
E-2
December 2006
-------
Figure E-3. Estimated Annual Cases of (Non-Accidental) Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population
Associated with Short-Term Exposure to O3 Above Background When the Current 8-Hour Standard is Just
Met (April - September): Single-City Model (left bar) vs. Multi-City Model (right bar)
Figure E-3a. Based on 2004 Air Quality
o
s?
w
a>
•a
c
o
3
Q.
§.
ra
I
01
01
in
ra
O
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
-4.0
1
S
"ro
'ffi
1
"
JS
S
(0
-C
o
V)
b
D)
ro
o
!c
O
(D
m
O
s
8
"ro
'5
1
"ffi
Q
S
8
0)
Q
S
"ro
'5
1
o
o
X
S
£
ro
o
W
o
S
o
S
S
"ro
'5
1
ID
m
8
CM
"ro
'ffi
"oi
m
55
Figure E-3b. Based on 2002 Air Quality
^* 14 n -r-
« 120
a>
~° 100
ro
•— 80
c o.u
O
Q. 40
Q- on
c
> 00
01
of -20
S _4n
. +
• 1 .
T
1
• + i
M
Cases per 100,01
.
i:
Atlanta: Belletal., 2004
Chicago: Schwartz, 2004
• 1
' t
"oj"oj
-------
Figure E-4. Estimated Annual Cases of Cardiorespiratory Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population
Associated with Short-Term Exposure to O3 Above Background When the Current 8-Hour Standard is Just
Met (April - September): Single-City Model (left bar) vs. Multi-City Model (right bar) - Based on Huang et
al. (2004)
Figure E-4a. Based on 2004 Air Quality
o
s?
S
•c
c
ra
3
a.
§.
6.4
5.4
4.4
3.4
•5: 2.4
§ 1.4
01
a.
in
ra
O
0.4
-0.6
Atlanta
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los
Angeles
New York Philadelphia
Figure E-4b. Based on 2002 Air Quality
o
S? 54 .
s
•a
<5 ^ A
c
.0
2
Q.
°- 34
4->
1
a> 94
2
o
g 1 4
o"
o
in n4
Q.
$
-------
Figure E-5. Estimated Annual Cases of (Unscheduled) Hospital Admissions for Pneumonia in Detroit per
100,000 Relevant Population Associated with Short-Term Exposure to O3 Above Background When the
Current 8-Hour Standard is Just Met (April - September): Different Lag Models - Based on Ito (2003) [bars
from left to right are 0-day, 1-day, 2-day, and 3-day lag models]
Figure E-5a. Based on 2004 Air Quality
4n n
S° 30 0
ou.u
•c
c
18 20 0
c
_o
"S 100
3
Q.
°- 00
+•»
c =•
5 O
a> m n
01
d
o
o -20 0
o"
o
7J -30 0
5 ou.u
Q.
-10 0
o -20 0
o"
o
7" T) n
Ol
Q.
* 4n n
w -tu.u
ro
O
-50 0
0-day 1-day 2-day 3-day
Abt Associates Inc.
E-5
December 2006
-------
Figure E-6. Estimated Annual Cases of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population
Associated with Short-Term Exposure to O3 Above Policy Relevant Background for the Period April -
September When the Current 8-Hour Standard is Just Met (Based on Bell et al., 2004 - 95 U.S. Cities) - Total
and Contribution of 24-Hour O3 Ranges
Figure E-6a. Based on 2004 Air Quality
O 400
s?
£ 350
•c
c
— 300
c
o
15 250
"5
a.
o 200
'c
B 1 50
01
01
£ 1 nn
o
o
S" 0.50
o
T-
• Attributable to 0.05 ppm<=ozone<0.06 ppm
D Attributable to 0.04 ppm<=ozone<0.05 ppm
D Attributable to 0.03 ppm<=ozone<0.04 ppm
n Attrihut^hlp tn nznnp 11§!8*|S|P
« itoSlito-sSigoa
5 s * 8 I « 1 I 1 1 i j 1
1 z 1 1 !
(A
i
Figure E-6b. Based on 2002 Air Quality
• Attributable to 0.06 ppm<=ozone<0.07 ppm
• Attributable to 0.05 ppm<=ozone<0.06 ppm
D Attributable to 0.04 ppm<=ozone<0.05 ppm
n Attributable to 0.03 ppm<=ozone<0.04 ppm
D Attributable to ozone O.03 ppm
Abt Associates Inc.
E-6
December 2006
-------
Figure E-7. Estimated Annual Cases of Cardiorespiratory Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population
Associated with Short-Term Exposure to O3 Above Policy Relevant Background for the Period April -
September When the Current 8-Hour Standard is Just Met (Based on Huang et al., 2004 - 19 U.S. Cities)
Total and Contribution of 24-Hour O3 Ranges
Figure E-7a. Based on 2004 Air Quality
3.00
5. 2.50
o
•2 2.00 -
3
Q.
S.
- 1.50
I
3 1.00
0.50
D Attributable to 0.04 ppm<=ozone<0.05 ppm
• Attributable to 0.03 ppm<=ozone<0.04 ppm
D Attributable to ozone O.03 ppm
01
a.
VI
n
O
0.00
Figure E-7b. Based on 2002 Air Quality
o
•a
c
ra
o
3
a.
§.
ra
I
01
a.
in
Si
ra
O
3.00
• Attributable to 0.06 ppm<=ozone<0.07 ppm
D Attributable to 0.05 ppm<=ozone<0.06 ppm
D Attributable to 0.04 ppm<=ozone<0.05 ppm
• Attributable to 0.03 ppm<=ozone<0.04 ppm
D Attributable to ozone <0.03 ppm
0.00
Abt Associates Inc.
E-7
December 2006
-------
E.2 Tables
Table E-1. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily
Maximum Standards: Atlanta, GA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations
0.080/4 0.070/4
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US
Cities (2004)
Huang et al.
(2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
Lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Other
Pollutants
in Model
none
none
none
none
CO
NO2
PM10
SO2
Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3
Standards**
0.084/4***
5
(-20 - 29)
9
(3-15)
6
(-2-14)
6
(2-10)
3
(1-6)
3
(1-5)
4
(-1 - 9)
3
(0-5)
0.084/3
5
(-20 - 29)
9
(3-15)
6
(-2-13)
6
(2-10)
3
(1-6)
3
(1-5)
4
(-1 - 9)
2
(0-5)
0.080/4****
4
(-18-26)
8
(3-14)
5
(-2-12)
6
(2-9)
3
(1-5)
3
(0-5)
3
(-1 - 8)
2
(0-5)
0.074/5
4
(-16-23)
7
(2-12)
5
(-2-11)
5
(2-8)
3
(1-5)
2
(0-4)
3
(-1 - 7)
2
(0-4)
0.074/4
4
(-15-22)
7
(2-12)
5
(-1-10)
5
(2-8)
3
(1-4)
2
(0-4)
3
(-1 - 7)
2
(0-4)
0.074/3
4
(-15-22)
7
(2-12)
4
(-1-10)
5
(2-8)
3
(1-4)
2
(0-4)
3
(-1 - 7)
2
(0-4)
0.070/4****
3
(-13-19)
6
(2-10)
4
(-1 - 9)
4
(2-7)
2
(1-4)
2
(0-4)
2
(-1 - 6)
2
(0-3)
0.064/4
3
(-11-16)
5
(2-8)
3
(-1 - 7)
3
(1-5)
2
(1-3)
2
(0-3)
2
(-1 - 5)
1
(0-3)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average.
These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E-8
December 2006
-------
Table E-2. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and
Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Atlanta, GA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US
Cities (2004)
Huang et al.
(2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
Lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Other
Pollutants
in Model
none
none
none
none
CO
N02
PM10
S02
Incidence of Health Effects per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the
Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
0.3
(-1.3-1.9)
0.6
(0.2-1)
0.4
(-0.1 -0.9)
0.4
(0.2 - 0.7)
0.2
(0.1 -0.4)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
0.2
(-0.1 -0.6)
0.2
(0 - 0.3)
0.084/3
0.3
(-1 .3 - 1 .9)
0.6
(0.2-1)
0.4
(-0.1 -0.9)
0.4
(0.2 - 0.7)
0.2
(0.1 -0.4)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
0.2
(-0.1 -0.6)
0.2
(0 - 0.3)
0.080/4
0.3
(-1 .2 - 1 .8)
0.6
(0.2 - 0.9)
0.4
(-0.1 -0.8)
0.4
(0.1 -0.6)
0.2
(0.1 -0.4)
0.2
(0 - 0.3)
0.2
(-0.1 -0.5)
0.2
(0 - 0.3)
0.074/5
0.3
(-1.1-1.6)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.8)
0.3
(-0.1 -0.7)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
0.2
(0.1 -0.3)
0.2
(0 - 0.3)
0.2
(-0.1 -0.5)
0.1
(0 - 0.3)
0.074/4
0.2
(-1-1.5)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.8)
0.3
(-0.1 -0.7)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
0.2
(0.1 -0.3)
0.2
(0 - 0.3)
0.2
(-0.1 -0.4)
0.1
(0 - 0.3)
0.074/3
0.2
(-1-1.5)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.8)
0.3
(-0.1 -0.7)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
0.2
(0.1 -0.3)
0.2
(0 - 0.3)
0.2
(-0.1 -0.4)
0.1
(0 - 0.3)
0.070/4
0.2
(-0.9 - 1 .3)
0.4
(0.1 -0.7)
0.3
(-0.1 -0.6)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
0.2
(0 - 0.3)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.2
(-0.1 -0.4)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.064/4
0.2
(-0.7-1.1)
0.3
(0.1 -0.6)
0.2
(-0.1 -0.5)
0.2
(0.1 -0.4)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.1
(-0.1 -0.3)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average.
These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E-9
December 2006
-------
Table E-3. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily
Maximum Standards: Atlanta, GA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratorv
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US
Cities (2004)
Huang et al.
(2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
Lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
Other
Pollutants
In Model
none
none
none
none
CO
N02
PM10
S02
Percent of Total Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3
Standards**
0.084/4***
0.1%
(-0.4% - 0.6%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.6%
(-0.2% - 1 .4%)
0.6%
(0.2%- 1%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.4%
(-0.1% -0.9%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.084/3
0.1%
(-0.4% - 0.6%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.6%
(-0.2% - 1 .4%)
0.6%
(0.2%- 1%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.4%
(-0.1% -0.9%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.080/4
0.1%
(-0.4% - 0.6%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.6%
(-0.2% - 1 .3%)
0.6%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.3%
(-0.1% -0.8%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.074/5
0.1%
(-0.3% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.5%
(-0.2% -1.1%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.3%
(-0.1% -0.7%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.074/4
0.1%
(-0.3% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.5%
(-0.2% -1.1%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.3%
(-0.1% -0.7%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.074/3
0.1%
(-0.3% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.5%
(-0.2% -1.1%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.3%
(-0.1% -0.7%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.070/4
0.1%
(-0.3% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.4%
(-0.1% -0.9%)
0.4%
(0.2% - 0.7%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.3%
(-0.1% -0.6%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.064/4
0.1%
(-0.2% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.3%
(-0.1% -0.8%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.5%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
"These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 - 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily
maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E-10
December 2006
-------
Table E-4. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily
Maximum Standards: Atlanta, GA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. -- 95 US
Cities (2004)
Huang et al.
(2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
Lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Other
Pollutants
In Model
none
none
none
none
CO
N02
PM10
S02
Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
7
(-30 - 43)
14
(5 - 23)
9
(-3 - 20)
9
(4-15)
5
(2-9)
4
(1-8)
5
(-2-13)
4
(0-8)
0.084/3
7
(-30 - 43)
14
(5 - 23)
9
(-3 - 20)
9
(4-15)
5
(1-9)
4
(1-8)
5
(-2-13)
4
(0-8)
0.080/4
6
(-28 - 40)
13
(4-21)
8
(-3-19)
9
(3-14)
5
(1-8)
4
(1-7)
5
(-2-12)
4
(0-7)
0.074/5
6
(-26 - 38)
12
(4 - 20)
8
(-3-18)
8
(3-13)
4
(1 -8)
4
(1 -7)
5
(-2-11)
3
(0-7)
0.074/4
6
(-24 - 35)
11
(4-19)
7
(-2-17)
8
(3-12)
4
(1 -7)
4
(1 -7)
4
(-2-11)
3
(0-6)
0.074/3
6
(-24 - 35)
11
(4-19)
7
(-2-17)
8
(3-12)
4
(1-7)
4
(1-7)
4
(-2-11)
3
(0-6)
0.070/4
5
(-22 - 32)
10
(3-17)
7
(-2-15)
7
(3-11)
4
(1 -6)
3
(1-6)
4
(-2-10)
3
(0-6)
0.064/4
4
(-19-27)
9
(3-14)
6
(-2-13)
6
(2-9)
3
(1-5)
3
(0-5)
3
(-1 - 8)
2
(0-5)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth
daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E-ll
December 2006
-------
Table E-5. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and
Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Atlanta, GA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. -- 95 US
Cities (2004)
Huang et al.
(2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
Lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Other
Pollutants
In Model
none
none
none
none
CO
N02
PM10
S02
Incidence of Health Effects per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current
and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
0.5
(-2 - 2.9)
0.9
(0.3- 1.6)
0.6
(-0.2 - 1 .4)
0.6
(0.2-1)
0.3
(0.1 - 0.6)
0.3
(0.1 - 0.5)
0.4
(-0.1 -0.9)
0.3
(0 - 0.5)
0.084/3
0.5
(-2 - 2.9)
0.9
(0.3- 1.5)
0.6
(-0.2 - 1 .4)
0.6
(0.2-1)
0.3
(0.1 - 0.6)
0.3
(0.1 - 0.5)
0.4
(-0.1 -0.9)
0.3
(0 - 0.5)
0.080/4
0.4
(-1.9-2.7)
0.9
(0.3- 1.4)
0.6
(-0.2 - 1 .3)
0.6
(0.2 - 0.9)
0.3
(0.1 - 0.5)
0.3
(0 - 0.5)
0.3
(-0.1 -0.8)
0.2
(0 - 0.5)
0.074/5
0.4
(-1.8-2.5)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .3)
0.5
(-0.2 - 1 .2)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.9)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
0.3
(0 - 0.5)
0.3
(-0.1 -0.8)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
0.074/4
0.4
(-1.6-2.4)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .3)
0.5
(-0.2- 1.1)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.8)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
0.3
(-0.1 - 0.7)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
0.074/3
0.4
(-1.7-2.4)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .3)
0.5
(-0.2- 1.1)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.8)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
0.3
(-0.1 - 0.7)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
0.070/4
0.3
(-1.5-2.2)
0.7
(0.2 - 1.1)
0.4
(-0.1 - 1)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.7)
0.3
(0.1 -0.4)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
0.3
(-0.1 - 0.6)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
0.064/4
0.3
(-1.3- 1.8)
0.6
(0.2 - 1)
0.4
(-0.1 - 0.9)
0.4
(0.1 -0.6)
0.2
(0.1 -0.4)
0.2
(0 - 0.3)
0.2
(-0.1 - 0.6)
0.2
(0 - 0.3)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth
daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E-12
December 2006
-------
Table E-6. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily
Maximum Standards: Atlanta, GA, April -September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US
Cities (2004)
Huang et al.
(2004)
Huang et al. — 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. — 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. — 19
US Cities (2004)
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
Lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
Other
Pollutants
in Model
none
none
none
none
CO
NO2
PM10
SO2
Percent of Total Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3
Standards**
0.084/4***
0.2%
(-0.7% - 0.9%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.9%
(-0.3% -2.1%)
0.9%
(0.4% - 1 .5%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.5%
(0.1% -0.8%)
0.6%
(-0.2% - 1 .3%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.8%)
0.084/3
0.1%
(-0.6% - 0.9%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.9%
(-0.3% -2.1%)
0.9%
(0.4% - 1 .5%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.5%
(0.1% -0.8%)
0.6%
(-0.2% - 1 .3%)
0.4%
(0%-0.8%)
0.080/4
0.1%
(-0.6% - 0.9%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.8%
(-0.3% - 1 .9%)
0.9%
(0.3% - 1 .4%)
0.5%
(0.1% -0.8%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.8%)
0.5%
(-0.2% - 1 .2%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.074/5
0.1%
(-0.6% - 0.8%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.8%
(-0.3% - 1 .8%)
0.8%
(0.3% - 1 .3%)
0.5%
(0.1% -0.8%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.5%
(-0.2% - 1 .2%)
0.3%
(0%-0.7%)
0.074/4
0.1%
(-0.5% - 0.8%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.7%
(-0.2% - 1 .7%)
0.8%
(0.3% - 1 .2%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.5%
(-0.2% -1.1%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.074/3
0.1%
(-0.5% - 0.8%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.7%
(-0.2% - 1 .7%)
0.8%
(0.3% - 1 .2%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.5%
(-0.2% -1.1%)
0.3%
(0%-0.6%)
0.070/4
0.1%
(-0.5% - 0.7%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.7%
(-0.2% - 1 .6%)
0.7%
(0.3% -1.1%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.4%
(-0.2% -1%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.064/4
0.1%
(-0.4% - 0.6%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.6%
(-0.2% - 1 .3%)
0.6%
(0.2%- 1%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.4%
(-0.1% -0.8%)
0.2%
(0%-0.5%)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
""Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
"""These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily
maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
""""This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E-13
December 2006
-------
Table E-7. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily
Maximum Standards: Boston, MA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-accidental
Respiratory symptoms among
asthmatic medication-users —
chest tightness
Respiratory symptoms among
asthmatic medication-users —
chest tightness
Respiratory symptoms among
asthmatic medication-users -
chest tightness
Respiratory symptoms among
asthmatic medication-users -
chest tightness
Respiratory symptoms among
asthmatic medication-users —
shortness of breath
Respiratory symptoms among
asthmatic medication-users —
shortness of breath
Respiratory symptoms among
asthmatic medication-users -
wheeze
Study
Bell et al. - 95 US
Cities (2004)
Gent et al. (2003)
Gent et al. (2003)
Gent et al. (2003)
Gent et al. (2003)
Gent et al. (2003)
Gent et al. (2003)
Gent et al. (2003)
Ages
all
0- 12
0-12
0- 12
0-12
0-12
0- 12
0- 12
Lag
distributed
lag
1-day lag
0-day lag
1-day lag
1-day lag
1 -day lag
1 -day lag
0-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
8 hr max.
1 hr max.
8 hr max.
1 hr max.
Other
Pollutants
In Model
none
none
PM2.5
PM2.5
none
none
none
PM2.5
Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3
Standards**
0.084/4***
6
(2-9)
4500
(700 - 7900)
7200
(3200- 10700;
6600
(2500-10200;
4600
(1500-7500)
4800
(600 - 8700)
5300
(1000-9200)
13200
(4700 - 20800;
0.084/3
5
(2-9)
4200
(700 - 7500)
6800
(3000- 10200;
6200
(2400 - 9700)
4400
(1400-7100)
4600
(600 - 8300)
5000
(1000-8700)
12400
(4400- 19700;
0.080/4
5
(2-9)
4200
(700 - 7400)
6700
(3000- 10100;
6200
(2400 - 9600)
4300
(1400-7000)
4500
(500 - 8200)
5000
(1000-8700)
12300
(4400-19600;
0.074/5
5
(2-8)
4100
(700 - 7300)
6600
(2900 - 9900)
6100
(2300 - 9400)
4200
(1300-6900)
4400
(500 - 8000)
4900
(900 - 8500)
12100
(4300-19200)
0.074/4
4
(1-7)
3800
(600 - 6700)
6100
(2700 - 9200)
5600
(2100-8700)
3900
(1200-6300)
4100
(500 - 7400)
4500
(900 - 7800)
11100
(3900-17700)
0.074/3
4
(1-7)
3600
(600 - 6400)
5800
(2600 - 8800)
5300
(2000 - 8300)
3700
(1200-6100)
3900
(500-7100)
4300
(800 - 7500)
10600
(3700-16900)
0.070/4
4
(1-7)
3500
(600 - 6200)
5600
(2500 - 8500)
5200
(2000-8100)
3600
(1100-5900)
3800
(500 - 6900)
4100
(800 - 7200)
10300
(3600-16400)
0.064/4
3
(1-6)
3100
(500 - 5500)
5000
(2200 - 7500)
4500
(1700-7100)
3100
(1000-5200)
3300
(400 - 6000)
3600
(700 - 6400)
9000
(3200-14500)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences of mortality are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences of respiratory symptom-days are rounded to the nearest 100.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily
maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E-14
December 2006
-------
Table E-8. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative
8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Boston, MA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects'
Mortality, non-accidental
Respiratory symptoms among
asthmatic medication-users —
chest tightness
Respiratory symptoms among
asthmatic medication-users —
chest tightness
Respiratory symptoms among
asthmatic medication-users —
chest tightness
Respiratory symptoms among
asthmatic medication-users —
chest tightness
Respiratory symptoms among
asthmatic medication-users —
shortness of breath
Respiratory symptoms among
asthmatic medication-users —
shortness of breath
Respiratory symptoms among
asthmatic medication-users —
wheeze
Study
Bell et al. - 95 US
Cities (2004)
Gent et al. (2003)
Gent et al. (2003)
Gent et al. (2003)
Gent et al. (2003)
Gent et al. (2003)
Gent et al. (2003)
Gent et al. (2003)
Ages
all
0-12
0-12
0-12
0-12
0-12
0-12
0-12
Lag
distributed
lag
1 -day lag
0-day lag
1 -day lag
1 -day lag
1 -day lag
1 -day lag
0-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hravg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
8 hr max.
1 hr max.
8 hr max.
1 hr max.
Other
Pollutants
in Model
none
none
PM2.5
PM2.5
none
none
none
PM2.5
Incidence of Health Effects per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and
Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .4)
17700
(2800-31100)
28400
(12700-42400)
26000
(10000-40300)
18200
(5800 - 29500)
19100
(2300 - 34500)
21000
(4100-36300)
51900
(18500-82200)
0.084/3
0.7
(0.2 - 1 .2)
16700
(2700 - 29500)
26800
(12000-40200)
24600
(9500 - 38300)
17200
(5500 - 28000)
18000
(2200 - 32600)
19800
(3800 - 34400)
49000
(17400-77900)
0.080/4
0.7
(0.2 - 1 .2)
16600
(2600 - 29200)
26600
(11900-39900)
24400
(9400 - 38000)
17100
(5400 - 27700)
17900
(2200 - 32400)
19700
(3800-34100)
48700
(17300-77300)
0.074/5
0.7
(0.2 - 1 .2)
16200
(2600 - 28700)
26100
(11600-39200)
23900
(9200 - 37300)
16700
(5300 - 27200)
17500
(2100-31700)
19200
(3700 - 33400)
47700
(16900-75800)
0.074/4
0.6
(0.2-1.1)
14900
(2400 - 26400)
24100
(10700-36200)
22100
(8400 - 34400)
15300
(4900 - 25000)
16100
(1900-29200)
17700
(3400 - 30800)
43900
(15500-70000)
0.074/3
0.6
(0.2 - 1)
14200
(2200 - 25200)
23000
(10200-34700)
21000
(8000 - 32900)
14600
(4600 - 23900)
15300
(1800-27900)
16800
(3200 - 29400)
41800
(14800-66900)
0.070/4
0.6
(0.2 - 1)
13800
(2200 - 24500)
22300
(9800 - 33700)
20400
(7800 - 32000)
14200
(4500 - 23200)
14900
(1800-27100)
16300
(3100-28500)
40600
(14300-64900)
0.064/4
0.5
(0.2 - 0.8)
12000
(1900-21500)
19600
(8600 - 29700)
17900
(6800 - 28200)
12400
(3900 - 20400)
13000
(1500-23800)
14300
(2700-25100)
35600
(12500-57100)
*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
**lncidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences of mortality per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth; incidences of respiratory symptom-days per 100,000 relevant population are rounded
to the nearest 100.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum
standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E- 15
December 2006
-------
Table E-9. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily
Maximum Standards: Boston, MA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects-
Mortality, non-accidental
Respiratory symptoms among
asthmatic medication-users —
chest tightness
Respiratory symptoms among
asthmatic medication-users —
chest tightness
Respiratory symptoms among
asthmatic medication-users —
chest tightness
Respiratory symptoms among
asthmatic medication-users —
chest tightness
Respiratory symptoms among
asthmatic medication-users —
shortness of breath
Respiratory symptoms among
asthmatic medication-users —
shortness of breath
Respiratory symptoms among
asthmatic medication-users —
wheeze
Study
Bell et al. - 95 US
Cities (2004)
Gent et al. (2003)
Gent et al. (2003)
Gent et al. (2003)
Gent et al. (2003)
Gent et al. (2003)
Gent et al. (2003)
Gent et al. (2003)
Ages
all
0-12
0-12
0-12
0-12
0-12
0-12
0-12
Lag
distributed
lag
1 -day lag
0-day lag
1 -day lag
1 -day lag
1 -day lag
1 -day lag
0-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hravg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
8 hr max.
1 hr max.
8 hr max.
1 hr max.
Other
Pollutants
in Model
none
none
PM2.5
PM2.5
none
none
none
PM2.5
Percent of Total Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3
Standards**
0.084/4***
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
8%
(1.3% -14.2%)
12.9%
(5.8% -19.3%)
1 1 .9%
(4.6% -18.4%)
8.3%
(2.6% -13.4%)
7%
(0.8% -12.6%)
7.6%
(1.5% -13.2%)
10.1%
(3.6% -16%)
0.084/3
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
7.6%
(1.2% -13.4%)
12.2%
(5.5% -18.3%)
1 1 .2%
(4.3%- 17.4%)
7.8%
(2.5% -12.7%)
6.6%
(0.8% - 1 1 .9%)
7.2%
(1.4% -12. 5%)
9.6%
(3.4%- 15.2%)
0.080/4
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
7.5%
(1.2% -13.3%)
12.1%
(5.4% -18.2%)
11.1%
(4.3% -17.3%)
7.8%
(2. 5% -12. 6%)
6.5%
(0.8% - 1 1 .8%)
7.2%
(1.4% -12. 4%)
9.5%
(3.4% -15.1%)
0.074/5
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
7.4%
(1.2% -13.1%)
1 1 .9%
(5.3% -17.8%)
10.9%
(4.2% -17%)
7.6%
(2. 4% -12. 4%)
6.4%
(0.8% - 1 1 .6%)
7%
(1.4% -12.2%)
9.3%
(3.3% -14.8%)
0.074/4
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
6.8%
(1.1% -12%)
11%
(4.9% -16.5%)
10%
(3.8% -15.7%)
7%
(2.2% -11. 4%)
5.9%
(0.7% -10.6%)
6.4%
(1 .2% - 1 1 .2%)
8.6%
(3% -13.7%)
0.074/3
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
6.5%
(1%-11.5%)
10.5%
(4.6% -15.8%)
9.6%
(3.7% -15%)
6.7%
(2.1%- 10.9%)
5.6%
(0.7% -10.2%)
6.1%
(1.2% -10.7%)
8.2%
(2.9%- 13%)
0.070/4
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
6.3%
(1%-11.2%)
10.1%
(4.5% -15.3%)
9.3%
(3.5% -14.6%)
6.5%
(2% -10.6%)
5.4%
(0.6% - 9.9%)
5.9%
(1.1% -10.4%)
7.9%
(2.8% -12.7%)
0.064/4
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
5.5%
(0.9% - 9.8%)
8.9%
(3.9% -13.5%)
8.2%
(3.1% -12.8%)
5.7%
(1 .8% - 9.3%)
4.7%
(0.6% - 8.7%)
5.2%
(1%-9.1%)
6.9%
(2.4% -11. 2%)
*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
**l ncidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum
standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E- 16
December 2006
-------
Table E-10. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily
Maximum Standards: Boston, MA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects'
Mortality, non-accidental
Respiratory symptoms among
asthmatic medication-users —
chest tightness
Respiratory symptoms among
asthmatic medication-users —
chest tightness
Respiratory symptoms among
asthmatic medication-users —
chest tightness
Respiratory symptoms among
asthmatic medication-users —
chest tightness
Respiratory symptoms among
asthmatic medication-users —
shortness of breath
Respiratory symptoms among
asthmatic medication-users —
shortness of breath
Respiratory symptoms among
asthmatic medication-users —
wheeze
Study
Bell et al. - 95 US
Cities (2004)
Gent et al. (2003)
Gent et al. (2003)
Gent et al. (2003)
Gent et al. (2003)
Gent et al. (2003)
Gent et al. (2003)
Gent et al. (2003)
Ages
all
0-12
0-12
0-12
0-12
0-12
0-12
0-12
Lag
distributed
lag
1 -day lag
0-day lag
1 -day lag
1 -day lag
1 -day lag
1 -day lag
0-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hravg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
8 hr max.
1 hr max.
8 hr max.
1 hr max.
Other
Pollutants
in Model
none
none
PM2.5
PM2.5
none
none
none
PM2.5
Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
9
(3-15)
6100
(1000-10500)
9600
(4400-14100)
8900
(3500-13500)
6400
(2100-10100)
6600
(800-11700)
7300
(1500-12500)
17800
(6500 - 27700)
0.084/3
8
(3-14)
5800
(900-10100)
9300
(4200-13600)
8500
(3300-13000)
6100
(2000 - 9700)
6300
(800-11300)
7000
(1400-12000)
17100
(6200 - 26600)
0.080/4
8
(3-14)
5800
(900-10000)
9200
(4200-13500)
8500
(3300-12900)
6000
(2000 - 9700)
6300
(800-11200)
7000
(1400-11900)
16900
(6100-26400)
0.074/5
8
(3-13)
5700
(900 - 9900)
9000
(4100-13300)
8300
(3200-12700)
5900
(1900-9500)
6100
(800-11000)
6800
(1300-11700)
16600
(6000 - 25900)
0.074/4
7
(3-12)
5300
(900 - 9300)
8500
(3800-12600)
7800
(3000-12000)
5600
(1800-9000)
5800
(700-10300)
6400
(1300-11000)
15600
(5600 - 24500)
0.074/3
7
(2-12)
5200
(800 - 9000)
8200
(3700-12200)
7600
(2900-11600)
5400
(1700-8700)
5600
(700-10000)
6200
(1200-10700)
15100
(5400 - 23800)
0.070/4
7
(2-12)
5000
(800 - 8800)
8000
(3600-11900)
7400
(2900-11400)
5300
(1700-8500)
5400
(700 - 9800)
6100
(1200-10400)
14700
(5300 - 23200)
0.064/4
6
(2-10)
4600
(700 - 8000)
7300
(3300-10900)
6700
(2600-10400)
4800
(1500-7700)
4900
(600 - 8900)
5500
(1100-9500)
13400
(4800-21200)
*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
**lncidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences of mortality are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences of respiratory symptom-days are rounded to the nearest 100.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum
standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E-17
December 2006
-------
Table E-11. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current
and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Boston, MA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects'
Mortality, non-accidental
Respiratory symptoms among
asthmatic medication-users —
chest tightness
Respiratory symptoms among
asthmatic medication-users —
chest tightness
Respiratory symptoms among
asthmatic medication-users —
chest tightness
Respiratory symptoms among
asthmatic medication-users —
chest tightness
Respiratory symptoms among
asthmatic medication-users —
shortness of breath
Respiratory symptoms among
asthmatic medication-users —
shortness of breath
Respiratory symptoms among
asthmatic medication-users —
wheeze
Study
Bell et al. - 95 US
Cities (2004)
Gent et al. (2003)
Gent et al. (2003)
Gent et al. (2003)
Gent et al. (2003)
Gent et al. (2003)
Gent et al. (2003)
Gent et al. (2003)
Ages
all
0-12
0-12
0-12
0-12
0-12
0-12
0-12
Lag
distributed
lag
1 -day lag
0-day lag
1 -day lag
1 -day lag
1 -day lag
1 -day lag
0-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hravg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
8 hr max.
1 hr max.
8 hr max.
1 hr max.
Other
Pollutants
in Model
none
none
PM2.5
PM2.5
none
none
none
PM2.5
Incidence of Health Effects per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and
Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
1.3
(0.4-2.1)
24100
(3900-41600)
38100
(17400-55800)
35000
(13800-53300)
25100
(8200 - 40000)
26100
(3200 - 46300)
29000
(5700 - 49300)
70200
25500-109400
0.084/3
1.2
(0.4 - 2)
23000
(3700 - 39900)
36500
(16600-53700)
33600
(13200-51200)
24000
(7800 - 38400)
25000
(3100-44400)
27700
(5500 - 47300)
67300
24400-105100
0.080/4
1.2
(0.4 - 2)
22800
(3700 - 39700)
36200
(16500-53400)
33300
(13100-50900)
23800
(7700 - 38200)
24800
(3000-44100)
27500
(5400 - 47000)
66800
24200-104300
0.074/5
1.2
(0.4 - 1 .9)
22400
(3600 - 38900)
35500
(16100-52400)
32700
(12800-50000)
23400
(7600 - 37400)
24200
(3000 - 43200)
27000
(5300-46100)
65400
23600-102400
0.074/4
1.1
(0.4 - 1 .8)
21000
(3400 - 36700)
33500
(15200-49600)
30800
(12000-47300)
22000
(7100-35300)
22800
(2800 - 40800)
25400
(5000 - 43500)
61600
(22200 - 96700)
0.074/3
1
(0.3 - 1 .7)
20400
(3300 - 35600)
32500
(14700-48200)
29900
(11600-45900)
21300
(6800 - 34300)
22000
(2700 - 39500)
24500
(4800 - 42200)
59600
(21400-93800)
0.070/4
1
(0.3 - 1 .7)
19800
(3200 - 34700)
31700
(14300-47100)
29100
(11300-44800)
20800
(6700 - 33500)
21500
(2600 - 38500)
24000
(4700-41200)
58100
(20800-91600)
0.064/4
0.9
(0.3 - 1 .5)
18000
(2900-31600)
28800
(12900-43000)
26400
(10200-41000)
18800
(6000 - 30500)
19400
(2300 - 35000)
21700
(4200 - 37600)
52700
(18800-83500)
*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
**lncidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences of mortality per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth; incidences of respiratory symptom-days per 100,000 relevant population are
rounded to the nearest 100.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum
standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E-18
December 2006
-------
Table E-12. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily
Maximum Standards: Boston, MA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-accidental
Respiratory symptoms among
asthmatic medication-users —
chest tightness
Respiratory symptoms among
asthmatic medication-users —
chest tightness
Respiratory symptoms among
asthmatic medication-users —
chest tightness
Respiratory symptoms among
asthmatic medication-users —
chest tightness
Respiratory symptoms among
asthmatic medication-users —
shortness of breath
Respiratory symptoms among
asthmatic medication-users —
shortness of breath
Respiratory symptoms among
asthmatic medication-users —
wheeze
Study
Bell et al. - 95 US
Cities (2004)
Gent et al. (2003)
Gent et al. (2003)
Gent et al. (2003)
Gent et al. (2003)
Gent et al. (2003)
Gent et al. (2003)
Gent et al. (2003)
Ages
all
0-12
0-12
0-12
0-12
0-12
0-12
0-12
Lag
distributed
lag
1 -day lag
0-day lag
1 -day lag
1 -day lag
1 -day lag
1 -day lag
0-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hravg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
8 hr max.
1 hr max.
8 hr max.
1 hr max.
Other
Pollutants
in Model
none
none
PM2.5
PM2.5
none
none
none
PM2.5
Percent of Total Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3
Standards**
0.084/4***
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
11%
(1.8% -18.9%)
17.3%
(7.9% - 25.4%)
16%
(6.3% - 24.3%)
1 1 .4%
(3.7% -18.2%)
9.5%
(1.2% -16.9%)
10.6%
(2.1% -17.9%)
13.7%
(5% -2 1.3%)
0.084/3
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
10.5%
(1.7% -18.2%)
16.6%
(7.6% - 24.5%)
15.3%
(6% - 23.3%)
10.9%
(3.5% -17.5%)
9.1%
(1.1% -16.2%)
10.1%
(2% -17.2%)
13.1%
(4.8% - 20.5%)
0.080/4
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
10.4%
(1.7% -18.1%)
16.5%
(7.5% - 24.3%)
15.2%
(6% - 23.2%)
10.9%
(3.5% -17.4%)
9%
(1.1% -16.1%)
10%
(2% -17.1%)
13%
(4.7% - 20.4%)
0.074/5
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
10.2%
(1.6% -17.7%)
16.2%
(7.3% - 23.9%)
14.9%
(5.8% - 22.7%)
10.6%
(3.4%- 17%)
8.8%
(1.1% -15.8%)
9.8%
(1.9% -16.8%)
12.8%
(4.6% - 20%)
0.074/4
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
9.6%
(1.5% -16.7%)
15.3%
(6.9% -22.6%)
14%
(5.5% -21. 5%)
10%
(3.2% -16.1%)
8.3%
(1%-14.9%)
9.2%
(1.8% -15.8%)
12%
(4.3% -18.9%)
0.074/3
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
9.3%
(1.5% -16.2%)
14.8%
(6.7% -21. 9%)
13.6%
(5.3% - 20.9%)
9.7%
(3.1% -15.6%)
8%
(1%-14.4%)
8.9%
(1.8% -15.4%)
1 1 .6%
(4.2% -18.3%)
0.070/4
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
9%
(1.4% -15.8%)
14.4%
(6.5% -21. 4%)
13.3%
(5.1% -20.4%)
9.5%
(3% -15.2%)
7.8%
(0.9% -14%)
8.7%
(1.7% -15%)
1 1 .3%
(4.1% -17.9%)
0.064/4
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
8.2%
(1.3% -14.4%)
13.1%
(5.9% -19.6%)
12%
(4.6% -18.7%)
8.6%
(2.7% -13.9%)
7.1%
(0.9% -12.8%)
7.9%
(1.5% -13.7%)
10.3%
(3.7% -16.3%)
*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
**l ncidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum
standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E-19
December 2006
-------
Table E-13. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily
Maximum Standards: Chicago, IL, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Study
Bell et al. - 95 US
Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz -14 US
Cities (2004)
Huang et al. (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
Lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Other
Pollutants
in Model
none
none
none
none
none
CO
NO2
PM10
SO2
Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3
Standards**
0.084/4***
33
(1 1 - 55)
314
(99 - 525)
118
(37-199)
16
(-14-45)
26
(10-41)
14
(4-24)
12
(2 - 23)
15
(-6 - 36)
11
(0-21)
0.084/3
31
(10-52)
300
(95-501)
113
(35-190)
15
(-13-42)
24
(9 - 39)
13
(4-23)
12
(2-21)
14
(-5 - 34)
10
(0 - 20)
0.080/4
29
(10-48)
288
(91 - 482)
108
(34-182)
14
(-12-39)
22
(9 - 36)
12
(4-21)
11
(2 - 20)
13
(-5 - 32)
9
(0-18)
0.074/5
26
(9 - 43)
268
(85 - 448)
101
(31 -170)
12
(-1 1 - 35)
20
(8 - 32)
11
(3-19)
10
(2-18)
12
(-5 - 28)
8
(0-16)
0.074/4
23
(8 - 39)
249
(79-417)
93
(29-157)
11
(-10-31)
18
(7 - 29)
10
(3-17)
9
(2-16)
11
(-4-25)
7
(0-15)
0.074/3
22
(7 - 36)
238
(75 - 399)
89
(28-151)
10
(-9 - 29)
17
(6-27)
9
(3-16)
8
(1-15)
10
(-4-24)
7
(0-14)
0.070/4
19
(6 - 32)
222
(70 - 372)
83
(26-140)
9
(-8 - 26)
15
(6-24)
8
(2-14)
7
(1-13)
9
(-3-21)
6
(0-12)
0.064/4
14
(5 - 24)
183
(58 - 307)
69
(21 -116)
7
(-6-19)
11
(4-18)
6
(2-10)
5
(1-10)
7
(-2-16)
5
(0-9)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These
nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E-20
December 2006
-------
Table E-14. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current
and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Chicago, IL, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Study
Bell et al. - 95 US
Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz -14 US
Cities (2004)
Huang et al. (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
Lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Other
Pollutants
in Model
none
none
none
none
none
CO
NO2
PM10
SO2
Incidence of Health Effects per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the
Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
0.6
(0.2-1)
5.8
(1.9-9.8)
2.2
(0.7 - 3.7)
0.3
(-0.3 - 0.8)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.8)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
0.3
(-0.1 -0.7)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
0.084/3
0.6
(0.2-1)
5.6
(1.8-9.3)
2.1
(0.7 - 3.5)
0.3
(-0.2 - 0.8)
0.4
(0.2 - 0.7)
0.2
(0.1 -0.4)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
0.3
(-0.1 -0.6)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
0.080/4
0.5
(0.2 - 0.9)
5.4
(1.7-9)
2
(0.6 - 3.4)
0.3
(-0.2 - 0.7)
0.4
(0.2 - 0.7)
0.2
(0.1 -0.4)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
0.2
(-0.1 -0.6)
0.2
(0 - 0.3)
0.074/5
0.5
(0.2 - 0.8)
5
(1.6-8.3)
1.9
(0.6 - 3.2)
0.2
(-0.2 - 0.7)
0.4
(0.1 -0.6)
0.2
(0.1 -0.4)
0.2
(0 - 0.3)
0.2
(-0.1 -0.5)
0.2
(0 - 0.3)
0.074/4
0.4
(0.1 -0.7)
4.6
(1.5-7.7)
1.7
(0.5 - 2.9)
0.2
(-0.2 - 0.6)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
0.2
(0.1 -0.3)
0.2
(0 - 0.3)
0.2
(-0.1 -0.5)
0.1
(0 - 0.3)
0.074/3
0.4
(0.1 -0.7)
4.4
(1.4-7.4)
1.7
(0.5 - 2.8)
0.2
(-0.2 - 0.5)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
0.2
(0.1 -0.3)
0.2
(0 - 0.3)
0.2
(-0.1 -0.4)
0.1
(0 - 0.3)
0.070/4
0.4
(0.1 -0.6)
4.1
(1.3-6.9)
1.6
(0.5 - 2.6)
0.2
(-0.2 - 0.5)
0.3
(0.1 -0.4)
0.2
(0 - 0.3)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.2
(-0.1 -0.4)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.064/4
0.3
(0.1 -0.4)
3.4
(1.1-5.7)
1.3
(0.4 - 2.2)
0.1
(-0.1 -0.4)
0.2
(0.1 -0.3)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.1
(0 - 0.3)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These
nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E-21
December 2006
-------
Table E-15. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily
Maximum Standards: Chicago, IL, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Study
Bell et al. - 95 US
Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz- 14 US
Cities (2004)
Huang et al. (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
Lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
Other
Pollutants
In Model
none
none
none
none
none
CO
NO2
PM10
SO2
Percent of Total Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3
Standards**
0.084/4***
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
1.5%
(0.5% - 2.5%)
0.6%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.3%
(-0.3% - 0.9%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.3%
(-0.1% -0.7%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.084/3
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
1.4%
(0.5% - 2.4%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.3%
(-0.3% - 0.8%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.3%
(-0.1% -0.7%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.080/4
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
1.4%
(0.4% - 2.3%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.3%
(-0.2% - 0.8%)
0.4%
(0.2% - 0.7%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.3%
(-0.1% -0.6%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.074/5
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
1.3%
(0.4% -2.1%)
0.5%
(0.1% -0.8%)
0.2%
(-0.2% - 0.7%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.6%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.074/4
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
1.2%
(0.4% - 2%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.2%
(-0.2% - 0.6%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.5%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.074/3
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
1.1%
(0.4% - 1 .9%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.2%
(-0.2% - 0.6%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.5%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.070/4
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
1.1%
(0.3% - 1 .8%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.2%
(-0.2% - 0.5%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.064/4
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.9%
(0.3% - 1 .5%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.1%
(-0.1% -0.4%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
"These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 - 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily
maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E-22
December 2006
-------
Table E-16. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily
Maximum Standards: Chicago, IL, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Study
Bell et al. -- 95 US
Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz- 14 US
Cities (2004)
Huang et al. (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
Lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Other
Pollutants
In Model
none
none
none
none
none
CO
NO2
PM10
SO2
Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
55
(18-91)
427
(136-712)
161
(51 - 271)
26
(-23 - 73)
42
(16-68)
23
(7 - 40)
20
(4 - 37)
25
(-1 0 - 59)
17
(0 - 34)
0.084/3
52
(18-87)
412
(131 -687)
156
(49-261)
25
(-22 - 70)
40
(15-65)
22
(7 - 38)
19
(3 - 35)
24
(-9 - 57)
17
(0 - 33)
0.080/4
50
(17-84)
401
(1 27 - 669)
151
(47 - 254)
24
(-21 - 68)
39
(15-63)
22
(6 - 37)
19
(3 - 34)
23
(-9 - 55)
16
(0 - 32)
0.074/5
47
(16-79)
381
(121 -636)
144
(45 - 242)
22
(-20 - 64)
36
(14-59)
20
(6 - 34)
18
(3 - 32)
22
(-8-51)
15
(0 - 30)
0.074/4
44
(15-74)
361
(1 1 5 - 603)
136
(43 - 229)
21
(-19-60)
34
(13-55)
19
(6 - 32)
16
(3 - 30)
20
(-8 - 48)
14
(0 - 28)
0.074/3
43
(14-71)
350
(1 1 1 - 585)
132
(41 - 222)
20
(-18-57)
33
(13-53)
18
(5-31)
16
(3 - 29)
20
(-8 - 46)
14
(0 - 27)
0.070/4
40
(13-67)
335
(106-559)
126
(39-212)
19
(-17-54)
31
(12-50)
17
(5 - 29)
15
(3 - 27)
18
(-7 - 44)
13
(0 - 25)
0.064/4
34
(1 1 - 57)
294
(93 - 493)
111
(35-187)
16
(-14-46)
26
(10-43)
15
(4 - 25)
13
(2 - 23)
16
(-6 - 37)
11
(0 - 22)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth
daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E-23
December 2006
-------
Table E-17. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current
and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Chicago, IL, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Study
Bell et al. -- 95 US
Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz- 14 US
Cities (2004)
Huang et al. (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
Lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Other
Pollutants
In Model
none
none
none
none
none
CO
NO2
PM10
SO2
Incidence of Health Effects per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current
and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
1
(0.3 - 1 .7)
7.9
(2.5- 13.2)
3
(0.9 - 5)
0.5
(-0.4- 1.4)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .3)
0.4
(0.1 -0.7)
0.4
(0.1 -0.7)
0.5
(-0.2- 1.1)
0.3
(0 - 0.6)
0.084/3
1
(0.3 - 1 .6)
7.7
(2.4- 12.8)
2.9
(0.9 - 4.9)
0.5
(-0.4- 1.3)
0.7
(0.3 - 1 .2)
0.4
(0.1 -0.7)
0.4
(0.1 -0.7)
0.4
(-0.2- 1.1)
0.3
(0 - 0.6)
0.080/4
0.9
(0.3 - 1 .6)
7.5
(2.4- 12.4)
2.8
(0.9 - 4.7)
0.4
(-0.4- 1.3)
0.7
(0.3 - 1 .2)
0.4
(0.1 -0.7)
0.3
(0.1 -0.6)
0.4
(-0.2 - 1)
0.3
(0 - 0.6)
0.074/5
0.9
(0.3- 1.5)
7.1
(2.3- 11.8)
2.7
(0.8 - 4.5)
0.4
(-0.4- 1.2)
0.7
(0.3- 1.1)
0.4
(0.1 - 0.6)
0.3
(0.1 - 0.6)
0.4
(-0.2-1)
0.3
(0 - 0.6)
0.074/4
0.8
(0.3- 1.4)
6.7
(2.1 - 11.2)
2.5
(0.8 - 4.3)
0.4
(-0.3- 1.1)
0.6
(0.2-1)
0.4
(0.1 - 0.6)
0.3
(0.1 - 0.6)
0.4
(-0.1 -0.9)
0.3
(0 - 0.5)
0.074/3
0.8
(0.3- 1.3)
6.5
(2.1 - 10.9)
2.5
(0.8-4.1)
0.4
(-0.3- 1.1)
0.6
(0.2-1)
0.3
(0.1 - 0.6)
0.3
(0.1 - 0.5)
0.4
(-0.1 -0.9)
0.3
(0 - 0.5)
0.070/4
0.7
(0.3- 1.2)
6.2
(2- 10.4)
2.3
(0.7 - 3.9)
0.4
(-0.3-1)
0.6
(0.2 - 0.9)
0.3
(0.1 - 0.5)
0.3
(0 - 0.5)
0.3
(-0.1 -0.8)
0.2
(0 - 0.5)
0.064/4
0.6
(0.2- 1.1)
5.5
(1.7-9.2)
2.1
(0.6 - 3.5)
0.3
(-0.3 - 0.9)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.8)
0.3
(0.1 - 0.5)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
0.3
(-0.1 -0.7)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth
daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E-24
December 2006
-------
Table E-18. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily
Maximum Standards: Chicago, IL, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Study
Bell et al. - 95 US
Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz -14 US
Cities (2004)
Huang et al. (2004)
Huang etal. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang etal. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang etal. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
Lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hravg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
Other
Pollutants
in Model
none
none
none
none
none
CO
NO2
PIM10
SO2
Percent of Total Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3
Standards**
0.084/4***
0.3%
(0.1% -0.4%)
2%
(0.6% - 3.4%)
0.8%
(0.2% - 1 .3%)
0.5%
(-0.5% - 1 .4%)
0.8%
(0.3% - 1 .3%)
0.5%
(0.1% -0.8%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.5%
(-0.2% - 1 .2%)
0.3%
(0%-0.7%)
0.084/3
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
2%
(0.6% - 3.3%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .2%)
0.5%
(-0.4% - 1 .4%)
0.8%
(0.3% - 1 .3%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.5%
(-0.2%- 1.1%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.080/4
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
1 .9%
(0.6% - 3.2%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .2%)
0.5%
(-0.4% - 1 .3%)
0.8%
(0.3% - 1 .2%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.5%
(-0.2% -1.1%)
0.3%
(0%-0.6%)
0.074/5
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
1 .8%
(0.6% - 3%)
0.7%
(0.2% -1.1%)
0.4%
(-0.4% - 1 .2%)
0.7%
(0.3% - 1 .2%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.4%
(-0.2% -1%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.074/4
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
1 .7%
(0.5% - 2.9%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1.1%)
0.4%
(-0.4% - 1 .2%)
0.7%
(0.3% -1.1%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.4%
(-0.2% - 0.9%)
0.3%
(0%-0.5%)
0.074/3
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
1 .7%
(0.5% -2.8%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1.1%)
0.4%
(-0.4%- 1.1%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.4%
(-0.1% -0.9%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.070/4
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
1 .6%
(0.5% - 2.7%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1%)
0.4%
(-0.3% -1.1%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.4%
(-0.1% -0.9%)
0.2%
(0%-0.5%)
0.064/4
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
1 .4%
(0.4% -2.3%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.3%
(-0.3% - 0.9%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.3%
(-0.1% -0.7%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
**lncidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
•"These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily
maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E-25
December 2006
-------
Table E-19. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily
Maximum Standards: Cleveland, OH, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Hospital
admissions,
respiratory illness
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US
Cities (2004)
Huang et al.
(2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Schwartz et al.
(1996)
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
65+
Lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
avg of 1 -day
and 2-day
lags
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
Other
Pollutants
in Model
none
none
none
none
CO
NO2
PM10
SO2
none
Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3
Standards**
0.084/4***
19
(-12-49)
12
(4-20)
11
(0 - 23)
10
(4-15)
5
(2-9)
5
(1-8)
6
(-2-13)
4
(0-8)
45
(12-79)
0.084/3
18
(-1 1 - 46)
11
(4-19)
11
(0-21)
9
(3-15)
5
(1-9)
4
(1-8)
5
(-2-13)
4
(0-7)
43
(11-75)
0.080/4
17
(-1 1 - 44)
11
(4-18)
10
(0-21)
9
(3-14)
5
(1-8)
4
(1-8)
5
(-2-12)
4
(0-7)
42
(11-72)
0.074/5
15
(-9 - 39)
9
(3-16)
9
(0-18)
8
(3-12)
4
(1-7)
4
(1-7)
5
(-2-11)
3
(0-6)
37
(10-65)
0.074/4
14
(-9 - 37)
9
(3-15)
9
(0-17)
7
(3-12)
4
(1-7)
4
(1-6)
4
(-2-10)
3
(0-6)
36
(9 - 63)
0.074/3
14
(-9 - 36)
9
(3-14)
8
(0-17)
7
(3-11)
4
(1-7)
3
(1-6)
4
(-2-10)
3
(0-6)
35
(9 - 60)
0.070/4
13
(-8 - 33)
8
(3-13)
8
(0-15)
6
(2-10)
4
(1-6)
3
(1-6)
4
(-1 - 9)
3
(0-5)
32
(8 - 56)
0.064/4
10
(-6 - 26)
6
(2-11)
6
(0-12)
5
(2-8)
3
(1-5)
2
(0-5)
3
(-1 - 7)
2
(0-4)
27
(7 - 47)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average.
These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E-26
December 2006
-------
Table E-20. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current
and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Cleveland, OH, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Hospital
admissions,
respiratory illness
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US
Cities (2004)
Huang et al.
(2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Schwartz et al.
(1996)
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
65+
Lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
avg of 1 -day
and 2-day
lags
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
Other
Pollutants
in Model
none
none
none
none
CO
NO2
PM10
SO2
none
Incidence of Health Effects per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the
Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
1.3
(-0.8 - 3.5)
0.9
(0.3 - 1 .4)
0.8
(0-1.6)
0.7
(0.3-1.1)
0.4
(0.1 -0.6)
0.3
(0.1 -0.6)
0.4
(-0.2-1)
0.3
(0 - 0.6)
20.9
(5.3 - 36.2)
0.084/3
1.3
(-0.8 - 3.3)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .3)
0.8
(0-1.5)
0.6
(0.2-1)
0.4
(0.1 -0.6)
0.3
(0.1 -0.6)
0.4
(-0.1 -0.9)
0.3
(0 - 0.5)
19.8
(5.1 -34.4)
0.080/4
1.2
(-0.8 - 3.2)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .3)
0.7
(0-1.5)
0.6
(0.2-1)
0.3
(0.1 -0.6)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
0.4
(-0.1 -0.9)
0.3
(0 - 0.5)
19.2
(4.9 - 33.4)
0.074/5
1.1
(-0.7 - 2.8)
0.7
(0.2-1.1)
0.6
(0-1.3)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.9)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
0.3
(0 - 0.5)
0.3
(-0.1 -0.8)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
17.3
(4.4 - 30)
0.074/4
1
(-0.6 - 2.7)
0.6
(0.2-1.1)
0.6
(0-1.2)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.8)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
0.3
(0 - 0.5)
0.3
(-0.1 -0.7)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
16.6
(4.2 - 28.8)
0.074/3
1
(-0.6 - 2.6)
0.6
(0.2-1)
0.6
(0-1.2)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.8)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
0.3
(-0.1 -0.7)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
16
(4.1 -27.8)
0.070/4
0.9
(-0.6 - 2.4)
0.6
(0.2-1)
0.5
(0-1.1)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.7)
0.3
(0.1 -0.4)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
0.3
(-0.1 -0.7)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
14.9
(3.8 - 25.9)
0.064/4
0.7
(-0.5 - 1 .9)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.8)
0.4
(0 - 0.9)
0.4
(0.1 -0.6)
0.2
(0.1 -0.4)
0.2
(0 - 0.3)
0.2
(-0.1 -0.5)
0.2
(0 - 0.3)
12.4
(3.2 - 21 .6)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average.
These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E-27
December 2006
-------
Table E-21. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour
Daily Maximum Standards: Cleveland, OH, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Hospital
admissions,
respiratory illness
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US
Cities (2004)
Huang et al.
(2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Schwartz et al.
(1996)
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
65+
Lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
avg of 1 -day
and 2-day
lags
Exposure
Metric
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
1 hr max.
Other
Pollutants
In Model
none
none
none
none
CO
N02
PM10
S02
none
Percent of Total Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
0.3%
(-0.2% - 0.7%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.6%
(0% - 1 .2%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.3%
(-0.1% -0.7%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
1.1%
(0.3% - 2%)
0.084/3
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.6%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.6%
(0%-1.1%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.3%
(-0.1% -0.7%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
1.1%
(0.3% - 1 .9%)
0.080/4
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.6%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.5%
(0%-1.1%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.7%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.3%
(-0.1% -0.7%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
1.1%
(0.3% - 1 .8%)
0.074/5
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.5%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.5%
(0%-1%)
0.4%
(0.2% - 0.7%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.6%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.9%
(0.2% - 1 .6%)
0.074/4
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.5%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.5%
(0% - 0.9%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.9%
(0.2% - 1 .6%)
0.074/3
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.5%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.9%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.9%
(0.2% - 1 .5%)
0.070/4
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.8%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.5%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.8%
(0.2% - 1 .4%)
0.064/4
0.1%
(-0.1% -0.4%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .2%)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 - 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily
maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E-28
December 2006
-------
Table E-22. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily
Maximum Standards: Cleveland, OH, April -September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Hospital
admissions,
respiratory illness
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. -- 95 US
Cities (2004)
Huang et al.
(2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Schwartz et al.
(1996)
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
65+
Lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
avg of 1 -day
and 2-day
lags
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
Other
Pollutants
In Model
none
none
none
none
CO
N02
PM10
S02
none
Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
49
(-31 - 128)
31
(10-52)
30
(-1 - 59)
25
(10-40)
14
(4 - 24)
12
(2 - 22)
15
(-6 - 35)
10
(0 - 20)
89
(23- 153)
0.084/3
47
(-30- 123)
30
(10-50)
28
(-1 - 57)
24
(9 - 39)
13
(4 - 23)
12
(2-21)
14
(-6 - 34)
10
(0 - 20)
85
(22- 147)
0.080/4
46
(-29- 120)
29
(10-49)
28
(-1 - 56)
24
(9 - 38)
13
(4 - 22)
11
(2-21)
14
(-5 - 33)
10
(0-19)
84
(22- 145)
0.074/5
43
(-27-112)
27
(9 - 45)
26
(-1 - 52)
22
(8 - 35)
12
(4-21)
11
(2-19)
13
(-5-31)
9
(0-18)
78
(20- 135)
0.074/4
42
(-26-109)
27
(9 - 44)
25
(-1-51)
21
(8 - 34)
12
(3 - 20)
10
(2-19)
13
(-5 - 30)
9
(0-18)
76
(20-132)
0.074/3
40
(-25-105)
26
(9 - 43)
24
(-1 - 49)
21
(8 - 33)
11
(3-19)
10
(2-18)
12
(-5 - 29)
8
(0-17)
73
(19-127)
0.070/4
39
(-25-102)
25
(8-41)
24
(-1 - 47)
20
(8 - 32)
11
(3-19)
10
(2-18)
12
(-5 - 28)
8
(0-16)
71
(18-123)
0.064/4
35
(-22-91)
22
(7 - 37)
21
(-1 - 42)
18
(7 - 29)
10
(3-17)
9
(2-16)
11
(-4 - 25)
7
(0-15)
64
(16-111)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth
daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E-29
December 2006
-------
Table E-23. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current
and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Cleveland, OH, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Hospital
admissions,
respiratory illness
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. -- 95 US
Cities (2004)
Huang et al.
(2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Schwartz et al.
(1996)
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
65+
Lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
avg of 1 -day
and 2-day
lags
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
Other
Pollutants
In Model
none
none
none
none
CO
N02
PM10
S02
none
Incidence of Health Effects per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current
and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
3.5
(-2.2 - 9.2)
2.2
(0.8 - 3.7)
2.1
(-0.1 - 4.2)
1.8
(0.7-2.9)
1
(0.3 - 1 .7)
0.9
(0.2 - 1 .6)
1.1
(-0.4 - 2.5)
0.7
(0 - 1 .5)
40.9
(10.5-70.6)
0.084/3
3.4
(-2.1 - 8.8)
2.2
(0.7 - 3.6)
2
(-0.1 -4.1)
1.7
(0.7-2.8)
1
(0.3 - 1 .6)
0.8
(0.1 -1.5)
1
(-0.4 - 2.4)
0.7
(0 - 1 .4)
39.3
(10.1 -67.9)
0.080/4
3.3
(-2.1 - 8.6)
2.1
(0.7 - 3.5)
2
(-0.1 - 4)
1.7
(0.6-2.7)
0.9
(0.3 - 1 .6)
0.8
(0.1 -1.5)
1
(-0.4 - 2.4)
0.7
(0 - 1 .4)
38.6
(9.9 - 66.7)
0.074/5
3.1
(-1.9-8)
2
(0.7 - 3.3)
1.9
(0 - 3.7)
1.6
(0.6 - 2.5)
0.9
(0.3- 1.5)
0.8
(0.1 - 1.4)
0.9
(-0.4 - 2.2)
0.6
(0 - 1 .3)
36
(9.2-62.1)
0.074/4
3
(-1.9-7.8)
1.9
(0.6 - 3.2)
1.8
(0 - 3.6)
1.5
(0.6 - 2.5)
0.9
(0.3- 1.4)
0.7
(0.1 - 1.3)
0.9
(-0.4-2.2)
0.6
(0-1.3)
35.2
(9 - 60.8)
0.074/3
2.9
(-1.8-7.5)
1.8
(0.6-3.1)
1.8
(0 - 3.5)
1.5
(0.6 - 2.4)
0.8
(0.2- 1.4)
0.7
(0.1 - 1.3)
0.9
(-0.3-2.1)
0.6
(0-1.2)
33.9
(8.7 - 58.6)
0.070/4
2.8
(-1.8-7.3)
1.8
(0.6 - 3)
1.7
(0 - 3.4)
1.4
(0.5 - 2.3)
0.8
(0.2- 1.4)
0.7
(0.1 - 1.3)
0.9
(-0.3 - 2)
0.6
(0-1.2)
32.9
(8.4 - 56.8)
0.064/4
2.5
(-1.6-6.5)
1.6
(0.5 - 2.7)
1.5
(0-3)
1.3
(0.5-2.1)
0.7
(0.2- 1.2)
0.6
(0.1-1.1)
0.8
(-0.3 - 1 .8)
0.5
(0-1)
29.5
(7.5-51.1)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth
daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E-30
December 2006
-------
Table E-24. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour
Daily Maximum Standards: Cleveland, OH, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects'
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Hospital
admissions,
respiratory illness
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US
Cities (2004)
Huang et al.
(2004)
Huang etal. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang etal. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang etal. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Schwartz et al.
(1996)
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
65+
Lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
avg of 1 -day
and 2-day
lags
Exposure
Metric
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
1 hr max.
Other
Pollutants
in Model
none
none
none
none
CO
NO2
PM10
SO2
none
Percent of Total Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3
Standards**
0.084/4***
0.7%
(-0.4% - 1 .7%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
1 .6%
(0%-3.2%)
1 .3%
(0.5% -2.1%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .3%)
0.6%
(0.1% -1.2%)
0.8%
(-0.3% - 1 .9%)
0.6%
(0%-1.1%)
2.2%
(0.6% - 3.9%)
0.084/3
0.6%
(-0.4% - 1 .7%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
1 .5%
(0% - 3%)
1 .3%
(0.5% -2.1%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .2%)
0.6%
(0.1% -1.1%)
0.8%
(-0.3% - 1 .8%)
0.5%
(0%-1.1%)
2.2%
(0.6% - 3.7%)
0.080/4
0.6%
(-0.4% - 1 .6%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
1 .5%
(0% - 3%)
1 .3%
(0.5% - 2%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .2%)
0.6%
(0.1% -1.1%)
0.8%
(-0.3% - 1 .8%)
0.5%
(0%-1%)
2.1%
(0.5% - 3.7%)
0.074/5
0.6%
(-0.4% - 1 .5%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
1 .4%
(0%-2.8%)
1 .2%
(0.4% - 1 .9%)
0.7%
(0.2% -1.1%)
0.6%
(0.1% -1%)
0.7%
(-0.3% - 1 .6%)
0.5%
(0%-1%)
2%
(0.5% - 3.4%)
0.074/4
0.6%
(-0.4% - 1 .5%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
1 .4%
(0% - 2.7%)
1.1%
(0.4% - 1 .8%)
0.6%
(0.2%- 1.1%)
0.6%
(0.1% -1%)
0.7%
(-0.3% - 1 .6%)
0.5%
(0% - 0.9%)
1 .9%
(0.5% - 3.3%)
0.074/3
0.5%
(-0.3% - 1 .4%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
1 .3%
(0%-2.6%)
1.1%
(0.4% - 1 .8%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1%)
0.5%
(0.1% -1%)
0.7%
(-0.3% - 1 .5%)
0.5%
(0% - 0.9%)
1 .9%
(0.5% - 3.2%)
0.070/4
0.5%
(-0.3% - 1 .4%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
1 .3%
(0% - 2.5%)
1.1%
(0.4% - 1 .7%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1%)
0.5%
(0.1% -0.9%)
0.6%
(-0.2% - 1 .5%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.9%)
1 .8%
(0.5% -3.1%)
0.064/4
0.5%
(-0.3% - 1 .2%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
1.1%
(0%-2.3%)
1%
(0.4% - 1 .5%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.5%
(0.1% -0.8%)
0.6%
(-0.2% - 1 .3%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.8%)
1 .6%
(0.4% -2.8%)
*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily
maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E-31
December 2006
-------
Table E-25. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily
Maximum Standards: Detroit, Ml, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality,
cardio respiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
respiratory
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US
Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz -14 US
Cities (2004)
Ito (2003)
Huang et al. (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Ito (2003)
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
Lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Other
Pollutants
in Model
none
none
none
none
none
none
none
CO
NO2
PM10
SO2
none
Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3
Standards**
0.084/4***
24
(-8 - 56)
12
(4-20)
107
(-17-229)
58
(18-98)
29
(-27 - 85)
11
(-1 - 23)
10
(4-16)
6
(2-9)
5
(1-9)
6
(-2-14)
4
(0-8)
9
(-7 - 25)
0.084/3
22
(-7-51)
11
(4-19)
102
(-17-218)
55
(17-93)
27
(-25 - 78)
10
(-1-21)
9
(4-15)
5
(2-9)
4
(1-8)
6
(-2-13)
4
(0-8)
9
(-7 - 23)
0.080/4
21
(-7 - 49)
11
(4-18)
99
(-16-212)
54
(17-91)
26
(-24-75)
10
(-1 - 20)
9
(3-14)
5
(1-8)
4
(1-8)
5
(-2-13)
4
(0-7)
8
(-7 - 22)
0.074/5
21
(-7 - 48)
11
(4-18)
97
(-16-209)
53
(17-89)
25
(-23 - 73)
9
(-1 - 20)
9
(3-14)
5
(1-8)
4
(1-8)
5
(-2-12)
4
(0-7)
8
(-6 - 22)
0.074/4
17
(-6 - 40)
9
(3-15)
87
(-14-186)
47
(15-79)
21
(-20 - 62)
8
(-1-17)
7
(3-12)
4
(1-7)
4
(1-6)
4
(-2-10)
3
(0-6)
7
(-5-18)
0.074/3
16
(-5 - 38)
8
(3-14)
83
(-13-178)
45
(14-76)
20
(-18-57)
7
(-1-15)
7
(3-11)
4
(1-6)
3
(1-6)
4
(-2-10)
3
(0-6)
6
(-5-17)
0.070/4
15
(-5 - 35)
8
(3-13)
78
(-13-168)
42
(13-72)
18
(-17-53)
7
(-1-14)
6
(2-10)
3
(1-6)
3
(1-5)
4
(-1 - 9)
3
(0-5)
6
(-5-16)
0.064/4
11
(-4-27)
6
(2-10)
66
(-11 -142)
36
(11-61)
14
(-13-41)
5
(-1-11)
5
(2-8)
3
(1-5)
2
(0-4)
3
(-1 - 7)
2
(0-4)
4
(-3-12)
Abt Associates Inc.
E-32
December 2006
-------
Health Effects*
Hospital
admissions
(unscheduled),
Hospital
admissions
(unscheduled),
Hospital
admissions
(unscheduled),
Hospital
admissions
(unscheduled),
Hospital
admissions
Hospital
admissions
Hospital
admissions
Hospital
admissions
Study
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Ages
65+
65+
65+
65+
65+
65+
65+
65+
Lag
0-day lag
1 -day lag
2-day lag
3-day lag
0-day lag
1 -day lag
2-day lag
3-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Other
Pollutants
in Model
none
none
none
none
none
none
none
none
Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3
Standards**
0.084/4***
-19
(-55-16)
-5
(-41 - 30)
6
(-30 - 40)
16
(-19-50)
-13
(-46-19)
12
(-20 - 43)
-2
(-35 - 30)
1
(-32 - 32)
0.084/3
-18
(-51 -15)
-4
(-38 - 28)
5
(-28 - 37)
15
(-17-46)
-12
(-42-17)
11
(-18-40)
-2
(-32 - 28)
1
(-30 - 30)
0.080/4
-17
(-49-14)
-4
(-36 - 27)
5
(-27 - 36)
14
(-17-44)
-11
(-41-17)
11
(-18-38)
-2
(-31 - 27)
1
(-29 - 29)
0.074/5
-16
(-48-14)
-4
(-35 - 26)
5
(-26 - 35)
14
(-16-43)
-11
(-39-16)
11
(-17-37)
-2
(-30 - 26)
1
(-28 - 28)
0.074/4
-14
(-40-12)
-3
(-29 - 22)
4
(-22 - 29)
12
(-14-37)
-9
(-33-14)
9
(-14-31)
-1
(-25 - 22)
1
(-23 - 24)
0.074/3
-13
(-37-11)
-3
(-27 - 20)
4
(-20 - 27)
11
(-13-34)
-9
(-31 -13)
8
(-13-29)
-1
(-24 - 20)
1
(-22 - 22)
0.070/4
-12
(-34-10)
-3
(-25-19)
4
(-19-25)
10
(-12-31)
-8
(-28-12)
8
(-12-27)
-1
(-22-19)
0
(-20 - 20)
0.064/4
-9
(-26 - 8)
-2
(-19-14)
3
(-14-19)
8
(-9 - 24)
-6
(-22 - 9)
6
(-9-21)
-1
(-17-14)
0
(-15-16)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These
nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E-33
December 2006
-------
Table E-26. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current
and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Detroit, Ml, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
respiratory
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US
Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz -14 US
Cities (2004)
Ito (2003)
Huang et al. (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Ito (2003)
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
Lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Other
Pollutants
in Model
none
none
none
none
none
none
none
CO
NO2
PM10
SO2
none
Incidence of Health Effects per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the
Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
1.2
(-0.4 - 2.7)
0.6
(0.2-1)
5.2
(-0.8-11.1)
2.8
(0.9 - 4.7)
1.4
(-1.3-4.1)
0.5
(-0.1-1.1)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.8)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
0.3
(-0.1 -0.7)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
0.4
(-0.4 - 1 .2)
0.084/3
1.1
(-0.3 - 2.5)
0.6
(0.2 - 0.9)
4.9
(-0.8-10.6)
2.7
(0.8 - 4.5)
1.3
(-1 .2 - 3.8)
0.5
(-0.1-1)
0.4
(0.2 - 0.7)
0.2
(0.1 -0.4)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
0.3
(-0.1 -0.6)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
0.4
(-0.3-1.1)
0.080/4
1
(-0.3 - 2.4)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.9)
4.8
(-0.8-10.3)
2.6
(0.8 - 4.4)
1.3
(-1 .2 - 3.6)
0.5
(-0.1-1)
0.4
(0.2 - 0.7)
0.2
(0.1 -0.4)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
0.3
(-0.1 -0.6)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
0.4
(-0.3-1.1)
0.074/5
1
(-0.3 - 2.3)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.9)
4.7
(-0.8-10.1)
2.6
(0.8 - 4.3)
1.2
(-1.1 -3.6)
0.5
(-0.1-1)
0.4
(0.2 - 0.7)
0.2
(0.1 -0.4)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
0.2
(-0.1 -0.6)
0.2
(0 - 0.3)
0.4
(-0.3-1)
0.074/4
0.8
(-0.3 - 2)
0.4
(0.1 -0.7)
4.2
(-0.7 - 9)
2.3
(0.7 - 3.8)
1
(-1 - 3)
0.4
(0 - 0.8)
0.4
(0.1 -0.6)
0.2
(0.1 -0.3)
0.2
(0 - 0.3)
0.2
(-0.1 -0.5)
0.1
(0 - 0.3)
0.3
(-0.3 - 0.9)
0.074/3
0.8
(-0.3 - 1 .8)
0.4
(0.1 -0.7)
4
(-0.7 - 8.6)
2.2
(0.7 - 3.7)
1
(-0.9 - 2.8)
0.4
(0 - 0.8)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
0.2
(0.1 -0.3)
0.2
(0 - 0.3)
0.2
(-0.1 -0.5)
0.1
(0 - 0.3)
0.3
(-0.2 - 0.8)
0.070/4
0.7
(-0.2 - 1 .7)
0.4
(0.1 -0.6)
3.8
(-0.6 - 8.2)
2.1
(0.6 - 3.5)
0.9
(-0.8 - 2.6)
0.3
(0 - 0.7)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
0.2
(0 - 0.3)
0.1
(0 - 0.3)
0.2
(-0.1 -0.4)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.3
(-0.2 - 0.8)
0.064/4
0.6
(-0.2 - 1 .3)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
3.2
(-0.5 - 6.9)
1.7
(0.5 - 2.9)
0.7
(-0.6 - 2)
0.3
(0 - 0.5)
0.2
(0.1 -0.4)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.1
(-0.1 -0.3)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.2
(-0.2 - 0.6)
Abt Associates Inc.
E-34
December 2006
-------
Health Effects*
Hospital
admissions
(unscheduled),
Hospital
admissions
(unscheduled),
Hospital
admissions
(unscheduled),
Hospital
admissions
(unscheduled),
Hospital
admissions
Hospital
admissions
Hospital
admissions
Hospital
admissions
Study
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Ages
65+
65+
65+
65+
65+
65+
65+
65+
Lag
0-day lag
1 -day lag
2-day lag
3-day lag
0-day lag
1 -day lag
2-day lag
3-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Other
Pollutants
in Model
none
none
none
none
none
none
none
none
Incidence of Health Effects per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the
Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
-7.6
(-22.3 - 6.4)
-1.9
(-16.3-12)
2.3
(-12.1 -16.1)
6.5
(-7.6-20.1)
-5.2
(-18.5-7.5)
5
(-8-17.3)
-0.7
(-14.1 -12)
0.3
(-13-13)
0.084/3
-7.1
(-20.6 - 5.9)
-1.7
(-15.1 -11.1)
2.1
(-11.2-14.9)
6
(-7-18.6)
-4.8
(-17-7)
4.6
(-7.4-16)
-0.7
(-13-11.1)
0.3
(-12-12)
0.080/4
-6.8
(-19.7-5.7)
-1.7
(-14.5-10.7)
2
(-10.7-14.3)
5.8
(-6.7-17.9)
-4.6
(-16.3-6.7)
4.4
(-7-15.4)
-0.6
(-12.5-10.7)
0.3
(-1 1 .5 - 1 1 .5)
0.074/5
-6.6
(-19.2-5.5)
-1.6
(-14.1 -10.4)
2
(-10.4-13.9)
5.6
(-6.5-17.4)
-4.4
(-15.9-6.5)
4.3
(-6.9-15)
-0.6
(-12.1 -10.4)
0.3
(-1 1 .2 - 1 1 .2)
0.074/4
-5.5
(-16.1 -4.7)
-1.4
(-1 1 .8 - 8.8)
1.7
(-8.8 - 1 1 .7)
4.8
(-5.5-14.7)
-3.7
(-13.3-5.5)
3.6
(-5.8-12.6)
-0.5
(-10.2-8.8)
0.2
(-9.4 - 9.5)
0.074/3
-5.1
(-14.9-4.3)
-1.3
(-11-8.1)
1.5
(-8.1 -10.9)
4.4
(-5.1 -13.7)
-3.5
(-12.4-5.1)
3.4
(-5.4 - 1 1 .8)
-0.5
(-9.5-8.1)
0.2
(-8.7 - 8.8)
0.070/4
-4.7
(-13.7-4)
-1.2
(-10.1 -7.5)
1.4
(-7.5-10.1)
4.1
(-4.7-12.6)
-3.2
(-1 1 .4 - 4.7)
3.1
(-4.9-10.8)
-0.5
(-8.7 - 7.5)
0.2
(-8-8.1)
0.064/4
-3.6
(-10.5-3.1)
-0.9
(-7.7 - 5.8)
1.1
(-5.7 - 7.7)
3.1
(-3.6 - 9.7)
-2.4
(-8.7 - 3.6)
2.4
(-3.8 - 8.3)
-0.3
(-6.7 - 5.8)
0.1
(-6.1 -6.3)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These
nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E-35
December 2006
-------
Table E-27. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour
Daily Maximum Standards: Detroit, Ml, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
respiratory
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US
Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz- 14 US
Cities (2004)
Ito (2003)
Huang et al. (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Ito (2003)
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
Lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hravg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
Other
Pollutants
In Model
none
none
none
none
none
none
none
CO
NO2
PM10
SO2
none
Percent of Total Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3
Standards**
0.084/4***
0.3%
(-0.1% -0.6%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
1.1%
(-0.2% - 2.4%)
0.6%
(0.2%- 1%)
0.3%
(-0.3% - 0.9%)
0.5%
(-0.1% -0.9%)
0.4%
(0.2% - 0.7%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.6%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
1.2%
(-0.9% - 3.2%)
0.084/3
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.5%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
1.1%
(-0.2% - 2.3%)
0.6%
(0.2%- 1%)
0.3%
(-0.3% - 0.8%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.9%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
1.1%
(-0.9% - 2.9%)
0.080/4
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.5%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
1.1%
(-0.2% - 2.3%)
0.6%
(0.2%- 1%)
0.3%
(-0.3% - 0.8%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.8%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
1%
(-0.8% - 2.8%)
0.074/5
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.5%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
1%
(-0.2% - 2.2%)
0.6%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.3%
(-0.2% - 0.8%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.8%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.5%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
1%
(-0.8% - 2.8%)
0.074/4
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.9%
(-0.1% -2%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.2%
(-0.2% - 0.7%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.9%
(-0.7% - 2.3%)
0.074/3
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.4%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.9%
(-0.1% -1.9%)
0.5%
(0.1% -0.8%)
0.2%
(-0.2% - 0.6%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.8%
(-0.6% - 2.2%)
0.070/4
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.4%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.8%
(-0.1% -1.8%)
0.5%
(0.1% -0.8%)
0.2%
(-0.2% - 0.6%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.7%
(-0.6% - 2%)
0.064/4
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.7%
(-0.1% -1.5%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.1%
(-0.1% -0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.6%
(-0.4% - 1 .5%)
Abt Associates Inc.
E-36
December 2006
-------
Health Effects*
Hospital
admissions
(unscheduled),
Hospital
admissions
(unscheduled),
Hospital
admissions
(unscheduled),
Hospital
admissions
(unscheduled),
Hospital
admissions
Hospital
admissions
Hospital
admissions
Hospital
admissions
Study
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Ages
65+
65+
65+
65+
65+
65+
65+
65+
Lag
0-day lag
1 -day lag
2-day lag
3-day lag
0-day lag
1-day lag
2-day lag
3-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
Other
Pollutants
In Model
none
none
none
none
none
none
none
none
Percent of Total Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3
Standards**
0.084/4***
-0.7%
(-2.1% -0.6%)
-0.2%
(-1 .6% - 1 .2%)
0.2%
(-1 .2% - 1 .6%)
0.6%
(-0.7% - 1 .9%)
-0.6%
(-2.3% - 0.9%)
0.6%
(-1%-2.2%)
-0.1%
(-1 .8% - 1 .5%)
0%
(-1 .6% - 1 .6%)
0.084/3
-0.7%
(-2% - 0.6%)
-0.2%
(-1.5% -1.1%)
0.2%
(-1.1% -1 .4%)
0.6%
(-0.7% - 1 .8%)
-0.6%
(-2.1% -0.9%)
0.6%
(-0.9% - 2%)
-0.1%
(-1 .6% - 1 .4%)
0%
(-1 .5% - 1 .5%)
0.080/4
-0.7%
(-1.9% -0.5%)
-0.2%
(-1.4%-1%)
0.2%
(-1 % - 1 .4%)
0.6%
(-0.6% - 1 .7%)
-0.6%
(-2% - 0.8%)
0.6%
(-0.9% - 1 .9%)
-0.1%
(-1.6% -1.3%)
0%
(-1 .4% - 1 .4%)
0.074/5
-0.6%
(-1 .8% - 0.5%)
-0.2%
(-1.4%-1%)
0.2%
(-1 % - 1 .3%)
0.5%
(-0.6% - 1 .7%)
-0.6%
(-2% - 0.8%)
0.5%
(-0.9% - 1 .9%)
-0.1%
(-1.5% -1.3%)
0%
(-1 .4% - 1 .4%)
0.074/4
-0.5%
(-1.6% -0.5%)
-0.1%
(-1.1% -0.8%)
0.2%
(-0.8% -1.1%)
0.5%
(-0.5% - 1 .4%)
-0.5%
(-1.7% -0.7%)
0.5%
(-0.7% -1.6%)
-0.1%
(-1.3% -1.1%)
0%
(-1 .2% - 1 .2%)
0.074/3
-0.5%
(-1.4% -0.4%)
-0.1%
(-1.1% -0.8%)
0.1%
(-0.8% -1.1%)
0.4%
(-0.5% - 1 .3%)
-0.4%
(-1.5% -0.6%)
0.4%
(-0.7% -1.5%)
-0.1%
(-1.2%-1%)
0%
(-1.1% -1.1%)
0.070/4
-0.5%
(-1.3% -0.4%)
-0.1%
(-1%-0.7%)
0.1%
(-0.7%- 1%)
0.4%
(-0.5% - 1 .2%)
-0.4%
(-1.4% -0.6%)
0.4%
(-0.6% - 1 .4%)
-0.1%
(-1.1% -0.9%)
0%
(-1%-1%)
0.064/4
-0.3%
(-1%-0.3%)
-0.1%
(-0.7% - 0.6%)
0.1%
(-0.6% - 0.7%)
0.3%
(-0.3% - 0.9%)
-0.3%
(-1.1% -0.5%)
0.3%
(-0.5%- 1%)
0%
(-0.8% - 0.7%)
0%
(-0.8% - 0.8%)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
"These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 - 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily
maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E-37
December 2006
-------
Table E-28. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily
Maximum Standards: Detroit, Ml, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
respiratory
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. -- 95 US
Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz- 14 US
Cities (2004)
Ito (2003)
Huang et al. (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Ito (2003)
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
Lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Other
Pollutants
In Model
none
none
none
none
none
none
none
CO
NO2
PM10
SO2
none
Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
46
(-15- 106)
24
(8 - 39)
158
(-26 - 336)
86
(27- 144)
56
(-52- 162)
21
(-2 - 44)
19
(7-31)
11
(3-18)
9
(2-17)
11
(-4 - 27)
8
(0-16)
18
(-1 4 - 46)
0.084/3
43
(-14- 100)
22
(7 - 37)
150
(-24 - 320)
82
(26- 137)
53
(-49- 151)
20
(-2-41)
18
(7 - 29)
10
(3-17)
9
(2-16)
11
(-4 - 25)
7
(0-15)
17
(-1 3 - 44)
0.080/4
43
(-14-98)
22
(7 - 36)
148
(-24 - 31 6)
81
(25- 136)
52
(-48- 150)
19
(-2 - 40)
18
(7 - 29)
10
(3-17)
9
(2-16)
11
(-4 - 25)
7
(0-15)
16
(-13-43)
0.074/5
42
(-14-97)
22
(7 - 36)
147
(-24-313)
80
(25- 134)
51
(-48-147)
19
(-2 - 40)
17
(7 - 28)
10
(3-17)
8
(2-15)
10
(-4 - 25)
7
(0-14)
16
(-13-42)
0.074/4
38
(-12-87)
19
(6 - 32)
134
(-22 - 287)
73
(23 - 1 23)
46
(-42-132)
17
(-2 - 36)
16
(6 - 25)
9
(3-15)
8
(1 -14)
9
(-4 - 22)
6
(0-13)
14
(-12 -38)
0.074/3
35
(-11 -81)
18
(6 - 30)
128
(-21 - 274)
70
(22 - 117)
43
(-40 - 1 24)
16
(-2 - 33)
15
(6 - 24)
8
(2-14)
7
(1-13)
9
(-3-21)
6
(0-12)
13
(-11 -36)
0.070/4
34
(-11 -79)
18
(6 - 29)
125
(-20 - 268)
68
(21 - 115)
42
(-39-120)
16
(-2 - 33)
14
(5 - 23)
8
(2-13)
7
(1-13)
8
(-3 - 20)
6
(0-12)
13
(-11 -35)
0.064/4
29
(-9 - 67)
15
(5 - 25)
111
(-18-239)
61
(19- 102)
36
(-33-103)
13
(-2 - 28)
12
(5 - 20)
7
(2-11)
6
(1-11)
7
(-3-17)
5
(0-10)
11
(-9 - 30)
Abt Associates Inc.
E-38
December 2006
-------
Health Effects*
Hospital
admissions
(unscheduled),
Hospital
admissions
(unscheduled),
Hospital
admissions
(unscheduled),
Hospital
admissions
(unscheduled),
Hospital
admissions
Hospital
admissions
Hospital
admissions
Hospital
admissions
Study
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Ages
65+
65+
65+
65+
65+
65+
65+
65+
Lag
0-day lag
1-day lag
2-day lag
3-day lag
0-day lag
1-day lag
2-day lag
3-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Other
Pollutants
In Model
none
none
none
none
none
none
none
none
Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
-37
(-1 09 - 30)
-9
(-79 - 57)
11
(-58 - 76)
31
(-37 - 94)
-25
(-90 - 36)
24
(-38-81)
-3
(-69 - 57)
1
(-63-61)
0.084/3
-34
(-1 02 - 29)
-8
(-74 - 53)
10
(-55-71)
29
(-34 - 89)
-23
(-84 - 34)
22
(-36 - 76)
-3
(-64 - 53)
1
(-59 - 57)
0.080/4
-34
(-1 00 - 28)
-8
(-73 - 53)
10
(-54 - 70)
29
(-34 - 87)
-23
(-83 - 33)
22
(-35 - 75)
-3
(-63 - 52)
1
(-58 - 57)
0.074/5
-33
(-99 - 28)
-8
(-72 - 52)
10
(-53 - 69)
28
(-33 - 86)
-23
(-82 - 33)
22
(-35 - 74)
-3
(-62 - 52)
1
(-57 - 56)
0.074/4
-30
(-88 - 25)
-7
(-64 - 46)
9
(-47 - 62)
25
(-30 - 77)
-20
(-73 - 29)
19
(-31 - 66)
-3
(-55 - 46)
1
(-51 - 50)
0.074/3
-28
(-82 - 23)
-7
(-60 - 44)
8
(-44 - 58)
24
(-28 - 73)
-19
(-68 - 27)
18
(-29 - 62)
-3
(-52 - 43)
1
(-48 - 47)
0.070/4
-27
(-80 - 23)
-7
(-58 - 42)
8
(-43 - 57)
23
(-27-71)
-18
(-66 - 27)
18
(-28-61)
-3
(-50 - 42)
1
(-47 - 46)
0.064/4
-23
(-68 - 1 9)
-6
(-50 - 36)
7
(-37 - 48)
20
(-23 - 60)
-16
(-56 - 23)
15
(-24 - 52)
-2
(-43 - 36)
1
(-39 - 39)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth
daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E-39
December 2006
-------
Table E-29. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current
and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Detroit, Ml, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
respiratory
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. -- 95 US
Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz- 14 US
Cities (2004)
Ito (2003)
Huang et al. (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Ito (2003)
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
Lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Other
Pollutants
In Model
none
none
none
none
none
none
none
CO
NO2
PM10
SO2
none
Incidence of Health Effects per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current
and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
2.2
(-0.7 - 5.2)
1.1
(0.4 - 1 .9)
7.7
(-1.3- 16.3)
4.2
(1 .3 - 7)
2.7
(-2.5-7.8)
1
(-0.1 -2.1)
0.9
(0.4 - 1 .5)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.9)
0.5
(0.1 -0.8)
0.6
(-0.2- 1.3)
0.4
(0 - 0.8)
0.9
(-0.7 - 2.3)
0.084/3
2.1
(-0.7 - 4.8)
1.1
(0.4 - 1 .8)
7.3
(-1.2- 15.5)
4
(1.2 -6.6)
2.6
(-2.4-7.4)
1
(-0.1 - 2)
0.9
(0.3 - 1 .4)
0.5
(0.1 -0.8)
0.4
(0.1 -0.8)
0.5
(-0.2- 1.2)
0.4
(0 - 0.7)
0.8
(-0.6-2.1)
0.080/4
2.1
(-0.7 - 4.8)
1.1
(0.4 - 1 .8)
7.2
(-1.2- 15.4)
3.9
(1.2 -6.6)
2.5
(-2.3-7.3)
0.9
(-0.1 - 2)
0.9
(0.3 - 1 .4)
0.5
(0.1 -0.8)
0.4
(0.1 -0.8)
0.5
(-0.2- 1.2)
0.4
(0 - 0.7)
0.8
(-0.6-2.1)
0.074/5
2
(-0.7 - 4.7)
1
(0.3- 1.7)
7.1
(-1.2-15.2)
3.9
(1.2-6.5)
2.5
(-2.3-7.2)
0.9
(-0.1 - 1.9)
0.8
(0.3- 1.4)
0.5
(0.1 - 0.8)
0.4
(0.1 - 0.7)
0.5
(-0.2- 1.2)
0.3
(0 - 0.7)
0.8
(-0.6-2.1)
0.074/4
1.8
(-0.6 - 4.2)
0.9
(0.3- 1.5)
6.5
(-1.1 -13.9)
3.5
(1.1 -6)
2.2
(-2.1 -6.4)
0.8
(-0.1 -1.7)
0.8
(0.3- 1.2)
0.4
(0.1 - 0.7)
0.4
(0.1 - 0.7)
0.5
(-0.2 - 1.1)
0.3
(0 - 0.6)
0.7
(-0.6 - 1 .9)
0.074/3
1.7
(-0.6 - 3.9)
0.9
(0.3- 1.5)
6.2
(-1 -13.3)
3.4
(1.1-5.7)
2.1
(-1.9-6)
0.8
(-0.1 - 1.6)
0.7
(0.3- 1.1)
0.4
(0.1 - 0.7)
0.3
(0.1 - 0.6)
0.4
(-0.2-1)
0.3
(0 - 0.6)
0.7
(-0.5 - 1 .7)
0.070/4
1.7
(-0.5 - 3.8)
0.9
(0.3- 1.4)
6.1
(-1-13)
3.3
(1 - 5.6)
2
(-1.9-5.8)
0.8
(-0.1 - 1.6)
0.7
(0.3- 1.1)
0.4
(0.1 - 0.7)
0.3
(0.1 - 0.6)
0.4
(-0.2-1)
0.3
(0 - 0.6)
0.6
(-0.5 - 1 .7)
0.064/4
1.4
(-0.5 - 3.3)
0.7
(0.2- 1.2)
5.4
(-0.9 -11.6)
2.9
(0.9 - 4.9)
1.7
(-1.6-5)
0.6
(-0.1 - 1.3)
0.6
(0.2-1)
0.3
(0.1 - 0.6)
0.3
(0.1 - 0.5)
0.4
(-0.1 -0.8)
0.2
(0 - 0.5)
0.5
(-0.4 - 1 .5)
Abt Associates Inc.
E-40
December 2006
-------
Health Effects*
Hospital
admissions
(unscheduled),
Hospital
admissions
(unscheduled),
Hospital
admissions
(unscheduled),
Hospital
admissions
(unscheduled),
Hospital
admissions
Hospital
admissions
Hospital
admissions
Hospital
admissions
Study
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Ages
65+
65+
65+
65+
65+
65+
65+
65+
Lag
0-day lag
1-day lag
2-day lag
3-day lag
0-day lag
1-day lag
2-day lag
3-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Other
Pollutants
In Model
none
none
none
none
none
none
none
none
Incidence of Health Effects per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current
and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
-14.8
(-43.7- 12.3)
-3.6
(-31.9-22.9)
4.4
(-23.5 - 30.5)
12.5
(-14.7-38)
-10
(-36.3- 14.4)
9.5
(-15.5-32.6)
-1.4
(-27.6-22.8)
0.6
(-25.4 - 24.6)
0.084/3
-13.9
(-40.8- 11.5)
-3.4
(-29.8 - 21 .5)
4.1
(-22 - 28.6)
11.7
(-13.8-35.6)
-9.3
(-33.9- 13.5)
8.9
(-14.5-30.6)
-1.3
(-25.8 - 21 .4)
0.5
(-23.8-23.1)
0.080/4
-13.7
(-40.3- 11.4)
-3.3
(-29.4-21.2)
4
(-21.7-28.2)
11.6
(-13.6-35.2)
-9.2
(-33.5- 13.3)
8.8
(-14.3-30.2)
-1.3
(-25.4-21.1)
0.5
(-23.5-22.8)
0.074/5
-13.5
(-39.7- 11.2)
-3.3
(-29 - 20.9)
4
(-21 .4 - 27.8)
11.4
(-13.4-34.7)
-9.1
(-32.9- 13.1)
8.7
(-14.1 -29.8)
-1.3
(-25 - 20.8)
0.5
(-23.1 - 22.5)
0.074/4
-12
(-35.3 - 1 0)
-2.9
(-25.8-18.7)
3.6
(-19-24.9)
10.2
(-11.9-31.1)
-8.1
(-29.3-11.7)
7.7
(-12.5-26.7)
-1.1
(-22.3-18.6)
0.5
(-20.6-20.1)
0.074/3
-11.2
(-33 - 9.4)
-2.7
(-24.1 -17.5)
3.3
(-17.8-23.4)
9.5
(-11.2 -29.2)
-7.6
(-27.4-11)
7.3
(-11.7-25.1)
-1.1
(-20.9-17.5)
0.4
(-19.2-18.9)
0.070/4
-10.9
(-32.1 -9.1)
-2.7
(-23.5-17.1)
3.2
(-17.3-22.8)
9.3
(-10.9-28.4)
-7.4
(-26.6-10.7)
7.1
(-11.4-24.4)
-1
(-20.3-17)
0.4
(-18.7-18.4)
0.064/4
-9.3
(-27.2 - 7.8)
-2.3
(-19.9-14.6)
2.8
(-14.7-19.5)
7.9
(-9.3 - 24.3)
-6.3
(-22.6-9.1)
6
(-9.7 - 20.9)
-0.9
(-17.2-14.5)
0.4
(-15.9-15.7)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth
daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E-41
December 2006
-------
Table E-30. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour
Daily Maximum Standards: Detroit, Ml, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
respiratory
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US
Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz -14 US
Cities (2004)
Ito (2003)
Huang et al. (2004)
Huang etal. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang etal. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang etal. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Ito (2003)
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
Lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
Other
Pollutants
in Model
none
none
none
none
none
none
none
CO
NO2
PIM10
SO2
none
Percent of Total Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3
Standards**
0.084/4***
0.5%
(-0.2% -1.1%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.4%)
1 .7%
(-0.3% - 3.6%)
0.9%
(0.3% - 1 .5%)
0.6%
(-0.6% - 1 .7%)
0.9%
(-0.1% -1.8%)
0.8%
(0.3% - 1 .3%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.8%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.5%
(-0.2% -1.1%)
0.3%
(0%-0.6%)
2.2%
(-1 .8% - 5.9%)
0.084/3
0.5%
(-0.1% -1.1%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
1 .6%
(-0.3% - 3.4%)
0.9%
(0.3% - 1 .5%)
0.6%
(-0.5% - 1 .6%)
0.8%
(-0.1%- 1.7%)
0.7%
(0.3% - 1 .2%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.4%
(-0.2%- 1%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
2.1%
(-1 .7% - 5.6%)
0.080/4
0.5%
(-0.1% -1%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
1 .6%
(-0.3% - 3.4%)
0.9%
(0.3% - 1 .4%)
0.6%
(-0.5% - 1 .6%)
0.8%
(-0.1% -1.7%)
0.7%
(0.3% - 1 .2%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.4%
(-0.2% -1%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
2.1%
(-1 .7% - 5.5%)
0.074/5
0.4%
(-0.1% -1%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
1 .6%
(-0.3% - 3.3%)
0.8%
(0.3% - 1 .4%)
0.5%
(-0.5% - 1 .6%)
0.8%
(-0.1% -1.6%)
0.7%
(0.3% - 1 .2%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.4%
(-0.2% -1%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
2.1%
(-1 .7% - 5.4%)
0.074/4
0.4%
(-0.1% -0.9%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
1 .4%
(-0.2% - 3%)
0.8%
(0.2% - 1 .3%)
0.5%
(-0.5% - 1 .4%)
0.7%
(-0.1% -1.5%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.4%
(-0.1% -0.9%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.5%)
1 .8%
(-1 .5% - 4.9%)
0.074/3
0.4%
(-0.1% -0.9%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
1 .4%
(-0.2% - 2.9%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .2%)
0.5%
(-0.4% - 1 .3%)
0.7%
(-0.1%- 1.4%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.4%
(-0.1% -0.9%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
1 .7%
(-1 .4% - 4.6%)
0.070/4
0.4%
(-0.1% -0.8%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
1 .3%
(-0.2% -2.8%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .2%)
0.4%
(-0.4% - 1 .3%)
0.6%
(-0.1% -1.3%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.4%
(-0.1% -0.8%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
1 .7%
(-1 .3% - 4.5%)
0.064/4
0.3%
(-0.1% -0.7%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
1 .2%
(-0.2% - 2.5%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1.1%)
0.4%
(-0.3% -1.1%)
0.5%
(-0.1% -1.1%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.3%
(-0.1% -0.7%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
1 .4%
(-1.1% -3.8%)
Abt Associates Inc.
E-42
December 2006
-------
Health Effects*
Hospital
admissions
(unscheduled),
Hospital
admissions
(unscheduled),
Hospital
admissions
(unscheduled),
Hospital
admissions
(unscheduled),
Hospital
admissions
Hospital
admissions
Hospital
admissions
Hospital
admissions
Study
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Ito (2003)
Ages
65+
65+
65+
65+
65+
65+
65+
65+
Lag
0-day lag
1 -day lag
2-day lag
3-day lag
0-day lag
1 -day lag
2-day lag
3-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
Other
Pollutants
in Model
none
none
none
none
none
none
none
none
Percent of Total Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3
Standards**
0.084/4***
-1 .4%
(-4.2% - 1 .2%)
-0.3%
(-3.1% -2.2%)
0.4%
(-2. 3% -2. 9%)
1 .2%
(-1 .4% - 3.7%)
-1 .2%
(-4.5% - 1 .8%)
1 .2%
(-1.9% -4.1%)
-0.2%
(-3.5% -2.9%)
0.1%
(-3.2% -3.1%)
0.084/3
-1 .3%
(-3.9% -1.1%)
-0.3%
(-2. 9% -2.1%)
0.4%
(-2.1% -2. 8%)
1.1%
(-1 .3% - 3.4%)
-1 .2%
(-4.2% - 1 .7%)
1.1%
(-1 .8% - 3.8%)
-0.2%
(-3.2% - 2.7%)
0.1%
(-3% - 2.9%)
0.080/4
-1 .3%
(-3.9% -1.1%)
-0.3%
(-2.8% -2%)
0.4%
(-2.1% -2.7%)
1.1%
(-1 .3% - 3.4%)
-1 .2%
(-4.2% - 1 .7%)
1.1%
(-1 .8% - 3.8%)
-0.2%
(-3.2% -2.6%)
0.1%
(-2. 9% -2. 9%)
0.074/5
-1 .3%
(-3.8% -1.1%)
-0.3%
(-2.8% - 2%)
0.4%
(-2.1% -2.7%)
1.1%
(-1 .3% - 3.3%)
-1.1%
(-4.1% -1.6%)
1.1%
(-1 .8% - 3.7%)
-0.2%
(-3.1% -2.6%)
0.1%
(-2.9% - 2.8%)
0.074/4
-1 .2%
(-3.4% -1%)
-0.3%
(-2. 5% -1.8%)
0.3%
(-1.8% -2.4%)
1%
(-1 .2% - 3%)
-1%
(-3.7% - 1 .5%)
1%
(-1 .6% - 3.3%)
-0.1%
(-2. 8% -2. 3%)
0.1%
(-2. 6% -2. 5%)
0.074/3
-1.1%
(-3.2% - 0.9%)
-0.3%
(-2.3% -1.7%)
0.3%
(-1.7% -2.3%)
0.9%
(-1.1% -2. 8%)
-0.9%
(-3.4% - 1 .4%)
0.9%
(-1.5% -3.1%)
-0.1%
(-2.6% - 2.2%)
0.1%
(-2.4% - 2.4%)
0.070/4
-1.1%
(-3.1% -0.9%)
-0.3%
(-2. 3% -1.6%)
0.3%
(-1.7% -2.2%)
0.9%
(-1%-2.7%)
-0.9%
(-3.3% - 1 .3%)
0.9%
(-1.4% -3.1%)
-0.1%
(-2. 5% -2.1%)
0.1%
(-2. 3% -2. 3%)
0.064/4
-0.9%
(-2.6% - 0.8%)
-0.2%
(-1 .9% - 1 .4%)
0.3%
(-1 .4% - 1 .9%)
0.8%
(-0.9% - 2.3%)
-0.8%
(-2. 8% -1.1%)
0.8%
(-1.2% -2.6%)
-0.1%
(-2.2% -1.8%)
0%
(-2% - 2%)
*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
**lncidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
•"These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily
maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E-43
December 2006
-------
Table E-31. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily
Maximum Standards: Houston, TX, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US
Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz -14 US
Cities (2004)
Huang et al. (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
Lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Other
Pollutants
in Model
none
none
none
none
none
none
CO
N02
PM10
S02
Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3
Standards**
0.084/4***
22
(1 - 42)
11
(4-18)
70
(6-132)
58
(18-98)
8
(-1-16)
8
(3-13)
4
(1-7)
4
(1-7)
5
(-2-11)
3
(0-6)
0.084/3
20
(1 - 39)
10
(3-16)
66
(6-126)
55
(17-93)
7
(-1-15)
7
(3-12)
4
(1-7)
3
(1-6)
4
(-2-10)
3
(0-6)
0.080/4
19
(1 - 37)
10
(3-16)
65
(6-123)
54
(17-91)
7
(-1-15)
7
(3-11)
4
(1-7)
3
(1-6)
4
(-2-10)
3
(0-6)
0.074/5
17
(1 - 32)
8
(3-13)
59
(5-112)
49
(15-83)
6
(-1-12)
6
(2-10)
3
(1-6)
3
(1-5)
4
(-1 - 8)
2
(0-5)
0.074/4
16
(1 - 30)
8
(3-13)
57
(5-109)
48
(15-81)
6
(-1-12)
6
(2-9)
3
(1-5)
3
(0-5)
3
(-1 - 8)
2
(0-5)
0.074/3
15
(1 - 28)
7
(2-12)
55
(5-104)
46
(14-77)
5
(-1-11)
5
(2-8)
3
(1-5)
3
(0-5)
3
(-1 - 7)
2
(0-4)
0.070/4
13
(1 - 25)
6
(2-11)
52
(5 - 99)
43
(14-73)
5
(-1-10)
5
(2-8)
3
(1-4)
2
(0-4)
3
(-1 - 7)
2
(0-4)
0.064/4
8
(0-15)
4
(1-6)
42
(4-80)
35
(1 1 - 59)
3
(0-6)
3
(1-5)
2
(0-3)
1
(0-3)
2
(-1 - 4)
1
(0-2)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These
nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E-44
December 2006
-------
Table E-32. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current
and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Houston, TX, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US
Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz -14 US
Cities (2004)
Huang et al. (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
Lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Other
Pollutants
in Model
none
none
none
none
none
none
CO
N02
PM10
S02
Incidence of Health Effects per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the
Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
0.6
(0-1.2)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
2
(0.2 - 3.9)
1.7
(0.5 - 2.9)
0.2
(0 - 0.5)
0.2
(0.1 -0.4)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.1
(-0.1 -0.3)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.084/3
0.6
(0-1.1)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
1.9
(0.2 - 3.7)
1.6
(0.5 - 2.7)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
0.2
(0.1 -0.3)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.1
(0 - 0.3)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.080/4
0.6
(0-1.1)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
1.9
(0.2 - 3.6)
1.6
(0.5 - 2.7)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
0.2
(0.1 -0.3)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.1
(0 - 0.3)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.074/5
0.5
(0 - 0.9)
0.2
(0.1 -0.4)
1.7
(0.2 - 3.3)
1.4
(0.5 - 2.4)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
0.2
(0.1 -0.3)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.1
(0-0.1)
0.074/4
0.5
(0 - 0.9)
0.2
(0.1 -0.4)
1.7
(0.2 - 3.2)
1.4
(0.4 - 2.4)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
0.2
(0.1 -0.3)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.1
(0-0.1)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.1
(0-0.1)
0.074/3
0.4
(0 - 0.8)
0.2
(0.1 -0.3)
1.6
(0.1 -3.1)
1.3
(0.4 - 2.3)
0.2
(0 - 0.3)
0.2
(0.1 -0.2)
0.1
(0-0.1)
0.1
(0-0.1)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.1
(0-0.1)
0.070/4
0.4
(0 - 0.7)
0.2
(0.1 -0.3)
1.5
(0.1 -2.9)
1.3
(0.4-2.1)
0.1
(0 - 0.3)
0.1
(0.1 -0.2)
0.1
(0-0.1)
0.1
(0-0.1)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.1
(0-0.1)
0.064/4
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
1.2
(0.1 -2.3)
1
(0.3 - 1 .7)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.1
(0-0.1)
0
(0-0.1)
0
(0-0.1)
0
(0-0.1)
0
(0-0.1)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These
nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E-45
December 2006
-------
Table E-33. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour
Daily Maximum Standards: Houston, TX, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratorv
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US
Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz- 14 US
Cities (2004)
Huang et al. (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
Lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hravg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
Other
Pollutants
In Model
none
none
none
none
none
none
CO
N02
PM10
S02
Percent of Total Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3
Standards**
0.084/4***
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.8%
(0.1% -1.5%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1.1%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.8%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.084/3
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.7%
(0.1% -1.4%)
0.6%
(0.2%- 1%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.5%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.080/4
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.7%
(0.1% -1.4%)
0.6%
(0.2%- 1%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.5%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.074/5
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.6%
(0.1% -1.2%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.074/4
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.6%
(0.1% -1.2%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.074/3
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.6%
(0.1% -1.1%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(-0.1% -0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.070/4
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.6%
(0.1% -1.1%)
0.5%
(0.1% -0.8%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(-0.1% -0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.064/4
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0.5%
(0% - 0.9%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0.1% -0.2%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
"These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 - 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily
maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E-46
December 2006
-------
Table E-34. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily
Maximum Standards: Houston, TX, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. -- 95 US
Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz- 14 US
Cities (2004)
Huang et al. (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
Lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Other
Pollutants
In Model
none
none
none
none
none
none
CO
N02
PM10
S02
Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
18
(1 - 34)
9
(3-15)
63
(6- 119)
53
(16-88)
6
(-1 - 13)
6
(2-10)
4
(1-6)
3
(1 -6)
4
(-1 - 9)
3
(0-5)
0.084/3
16
(1 - 32)
8
(3-13)
59
(5- 113)
50
(16-84)
6
(-1 - 12)
6
(2-10)
3
(1 -6)
3
(1 -5)
4
(-1 - 8)
2
(0-5)
0.080/4
16
(1-31)
8
(3-13)
58
(5- 110)
49
(15-82)
6
(-1 - 12)
6
(2-9)
3
(1-5)
3
(0-5)
3
(-1 - 8)
2
(0-5)
0.074/5
13
(1 - 26)
7
(2-11)
53
(5-100)
44
(1 4 - 74)
5
(-1-10)
5
(2-8)
3
(1-5)
2
(0-4)
3
(-1 - 7)
2
(0-4)
0.074/4
13
(1 - 25)
6
(2-10)
51
(5 - 97)
43
(13-72)
5
(-1-10)
5
(2-7)
3
(1-4)
2
(0-4)
3
(-1 - 7)
2
(0-4)
0.074/3
12
(1 - 23)
6
(2-10)
48
(4 - 92)
40
(1 3 - 68)
4
(-1 - 9)
4
(2-7)
2
(1-4)
2
(0-4)
3
(-1 - 6)
2
(0-3)
0.070/4
11
(1-21)
5
(2-9)
46
(4 - 87)
38
(12-64)
4
(0-8)
4
(1-6)
2
(1 -4)
2
(0-3)
2
(-1 - 5)
2
(0-3)
0.064/4
7
(0-13)
3
(1 -5)
36
(3 - 69)
30
(9-51)
2
(0-5)
2
(1 -4)
1
(0-2)
1
(0-2)
1
(-1 - 3)
1
(0-2)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth
daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E-47
December 2006
-------
Table E-35. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current
and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Houston, TX, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. -- 95 US
Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz- 14 US
Cities (2004)
Huang et al. (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
Lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Other
Pollutants
In Model
none
none
none
none
none
none
CO
N02
PM10
S02
Incidence of Health Effects per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current
and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
0.5
(0-1)
0.3
(0.1 -0.4)
1.8
(0.2 - 3.5)
1.5
(0.5-2.6)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
0.2
(0.1 -0.3)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.1
(0 - 0.3)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.084/3
0.5
(0 - 0.9)
0.2
(0.1 -0.4)
1.7
(0.2 - 3.3)
1.5
(0.5-2.5)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
0.2
(0.1 -0.3)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.1
(0-0.1)
0.080/4
0.5
(0 - 0.9)
0.2
(0.1 -0.4)
1.7
(0.2 - 3.2)
1.4
(0.4-2.4)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
0.2
(0.1 -0.3)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.1
(0-0.1)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.1
(0-0.1)
0.074/5
0.4
(0 - 0.8)
0.2
(0.1 - 0.3)
1.5
(0.1 - 2.9)
1.3
(0.4 - 2.2)
0.1
(0 - 0.3)
0.1
(0.1 - 0.2)
0.1
(0-0.1)
0.1
(0-0.1)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.1
(0-0.1)
0.074/4
0.4
(0 - 0.7)
0.2
(0.1 - 0.3)
1.5
(0.1 - 2.9)
1.3
(0.4-2.1)
0.1
(0 - 0.3)
0.1
(0.1 - 0.2)
0.1
(0-0.1)
0.1
(0-0.1)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.1
(0-0.1)
0.074/3
0.3
(0 - 0.7)
0.2
(0.1 - 0.3)
1.4
(0.1 - 2.7)
1.2
(0.4 - 2)
0.1
(0 - 0.3)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.1
(0-0.1)
0.1
(0-0.1)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.1
(0-0.1)
0.070/4
0.3
(0 - 0.6)
0.2
(0.1 - 0.3)
1.3
(0.1 - 2.6)
1.1
(0.4- 1.9)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.1
(0-0.1)
0.1
(0-0.1)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0
(0-0.1)
0.064/4
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
1.1
(0.1 -2)
0.9
(0.3- 1.5)
0.1
(0-0.1)
0.1
(0-0.1)
0
(0-0.1)
0
(0-0.1)
0
(0-0.1)
0
(0-0.1)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth
daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E-48
December 2006
-------
Table E-36. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour
Daily Maximum Standards: Houston, TX, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US
Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz -14 US
Cities (2004)
Huang et al. (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang etal. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang etal. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
Lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
Other
Pollutants
in Model
none
none
none
none
none
none
CO
NO2
PIM10
SO2
Percent of Total Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3
Standards**
0.084/4***
0.2%
(0%-0.4%)
0.1%
(0%-0.2%)
0.7%
(0.1% -1.3%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1%)
0.3%
(0%-0.6%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.2%
(0%-0.3%)
0.1%
(0%-0.3%)
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.4%)
0.1%
(0%-0.3%)
0.084/3
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.7%
(0.1% -1.2%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.080/4
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.6%
(0.1% -1.2%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.4%)
0.1%
(0%-0.2%)
0.074/5
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.6%
(0.1% -1.1%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(-0.1% -0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.074/4
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.6%
(0.1% -1.1%)
0.5%
(0.1% -0.8%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(-0.1% -0.3%)
0.1%
(0%-0.2%)
0.074/3
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.5%
(0%-1%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.070/4
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.5%
(0%-1%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.064/4
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.8%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
""Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
"""These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily
maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
""""This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E-49
December 2006
-------
Table E-37. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily
Maximum Standards: Los Angeles, CA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Hospital admissions
(unscheduled),
pulmonary illness —
spring
Hospital admissions
(unscheduled),
pulmonary illness -
summer
Study
Bell et al. (2004)*****
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities
(2004)*****
Huang et al. (2004)*****
Huang et al. - 19 US
Cities (2004)*****
Huang et al. - 19 US
Cities (2004)****
Huang et al. - 19 US
Cities (2004)*****
Huang et al. - 19 US
Cities (2004)*****
Huang et al. - 19 US
Cities (2004)*****
Linn et al. (2000)******
Linn et al. (2000)******
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
30+
30+
Lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Other
Pollutants
In Model
none
none
none
none
CO
NO2
PM10
SO2
none
none
Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3
Standards**
0.084/4***
31
(-74 - 1 35)
67
(22 - 111)
50
(0 - 98)
57
(22 - 93)
32
(9 - 54)
28
(5 - 50)
34
(-13-81)
24
(0 - 47)
38
(-16-90)
28
(-36 - 90)
0.084/3
30
(-72 - 131)
64
(22-107)
48
(0 - 95)
56
(21 - 90)
31
(9 - 53)
27
(5 - 49)
33
(-13-78)
23
(0 - 46)
37
(-16-88)
27
(-35 - 89)
0.080/4
27
(-66 - 1 20)
59
(20 - 98)
44
(0 - 88)
51
(19-83)
28
(8 - 48)
25
(4 - 45)
30
(-12-72)
21
(0 - 42)
34
(-15-82)
26
(-34 - 85)
0.074/5
22
(-52 - 95)
47
(16-78)
35
(0 - 69)
40
(15-65)
22
(7 - 38)
19
(3 - 35)
24
(-9 - 57)
17
(0 - 33)
28
(-12-67)
23
(-29 - 73)
0.074/4
20
(-49 - 90)
44
(15-74)
33
(0 - 65)
38
(15-62)
21
(6 - 36)
18
(3 - 34)
23
(-9 - 54)
16
(0-31)
27
(-1 1 - 64)
22
(-28-71)
0.074/3
19
(-46 - 83)
41
(14-68)
30
(0-61)
35
(13-57)
20
(6 - 33)
17
(3-31)
21
(-8 - 50)
15
(0 - 29)
25
(-11-61)
21
(-27 - 69)
0.070/4
16
(-38 - 69)
34
(1 1 - 56)
25
(0 - 50)
29
(11 -47)
16
(5 - 28)
14
(3 - 26)
17
(-7-41)
12
(0 - 24)
21
(-9-51)
19
(-24-61)
0.064/4
9
(-22-41)
20
(7 - 33)
15
(0 - 30)
17
(7 - 28)
10
(3-16)
8
(1 -15)
10
(-4 - 25)
7
(0-14)
13
(-6 - 32)
14
(-18-45)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth
daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
*****Los Angeles is defined in this study as Los Angeles County.
******Los Angeles is defined in this study as Los Angeles, Riverside, San Bernardino, and Orange Counties. The spring C-R function was run with April - June air quality data; the summer C-R function was run with July - September air
quality data.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E-50
December 2006
-------
Table E-38. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current
and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Los Angeles, CA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Hospital admissions
(unscheduled),
pulmonary illness -
spring
Hospital admissions
(unscheduled),
pulmonary illness -
summer
Study
Bell et al. (2004)*****
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities
(2004)*****
Huang et al. (2004)*****
Huang et al. - 19 US
Cities (2004)*****
Huang et al. - 19 US
Cities (2004)****
Huang et al. - 19 US
Cities (2004)*****
Huang et al. - 19 US
Cities (2004)*****
Huang et al. - 19 US
Cities (2004)*****
Linn et al. (2000)******
Linn et al. (2000)******
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
30+
30+
Lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Other
Pollutants
In Model
none
none
none
none
CO
N02
PM10
S02
none
none
Incidence of Health Effects per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the
Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
0.3
(-0.8 - 1 .4)
0.7
(0.2- 1.2)
0.5
(0-1)
0.6
(0.2-1)
0.3
(0.1 - 0.6)
0.3
(0.1 - 0.5)
0.4
(-0.1 -0.9)
0.2
(0 - 0.5)
0.4
(-0.2 - 1.1)
0.3
(-0.4- 1.1)
0.084/3
0.3
(-0.8 - 1 .4)
0.7
(0.2- 1.1)
0.5
(0-1)
0.6
(0.2 - 0.9)
0.3
(0.1 - 0.6)
0.3
(0.1 - 0.5)
0.3
(-0.1 -0.8)
0.2
(0 - 0.5)
0.4
(-0.2-1)
0.3
(-0.4- 1.1)
0.080/4
0.3
(-0.7 - 1 .3)
0.6
(0.2-1)
0.5
(0 - 0.9)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.9)
0.3
(0.1 - 0.5)
0.3
(0 - 0.5)
0.3
(-0.1 -0.8)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
0.4
(-0.2-1)
0.3
(-0.4-1)
0.074/5
0.2
(-0.5-1)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.8)
0.4
(0 - 0.7)
0.4
(0.2 - 0.7)
0.2
(0.1 -0.4)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
0.3
(-0.1 -0.6)
0.2
(0 - 0.3)
0.3
(-0.1 -0.8)
0.3
(-0.3 - 0.9)
0.074/4
0.2
(-0.5 - 0.9)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.8)
0.3
(0 - 0.7)
0.4
(0.2 - 0.6)
0.2
(0.1 -0.4)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
0.2
(-0.1 - 0.6)
0.2
(0 - 0.3)
0.3
(-0.1 - 0.8)
0.3
(-0.3 - 0.9)
0.074/3
0.2
(-0.5 - 0.9)
0.4
(0.1 -0.7)
0.3
(0 - 0.6)
0.4
(0.1 -0.6)
0.2
(0.1 -0.4)
0.2
(0 - 0.3)
0.2
(-0.1 - 0.5)
0.2
(0 - 0.3)
0.3
(-0.1 - 0.7)
0.3
(-0.3 - 0.8)
0.070/4
0.2
(-0.4 - 0.7)
0.4
(0.1 -0.6)
0.3
(0 - 0.5)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
0.2
(0 - 0.3)
0.1
(0 - 0.3)
0.2
(-0.1 - 0.4)
0.1
(0 - 0.3)
0.3
(-0.1 - 0.6)
0.2
(-0.3 - 0.7)
0.064/4
0.1
(-0.2 - 0.4)
0.2
(0.1 -0.4)
0.2
(0 - 0.3)
0.2
(0.1 -0.3)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.1
(0 - 0.3)
0.1
(0-0.1)
0.2
(-0.1 - 0.4)
0.2
(-0.2 - 0.5)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth
daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
*****Los Angeles is defined in this study as Los Angeles County.
******Los Angeles is defined in this study as Los Angeles, Riverside, San Bernardino, and Orange Counties. The spring C-R function was run with April - June air quality data; the summer C-R function was run with July - September air
quality data.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E-51
December 2006
-------
Table E-39. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour
Daily Maximum Standards: Los Angeles, CA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Hospital admissions
(unscheduled),
pulmonary illness —
spring
Hospital admissions
(unscheduled),
pulmonary illness —
summer
Study
Bell et al. (2004)*****
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities
(2004)*****
Huang et al. (2004)*****
Huang etal. - 19 US
Cities (2004)*****
Huang etal.- 19 US
Cities (2004)****
Huang etal.- 19 US
Cities (2004)*****
Huang etal.- 19 US
Cities (2004)*****
Huang etal.- 19 US
Cities (2004)*****
Linn et al. (2000)******
Linn et al. (2000)******
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
30+
30+
Lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
Other
Pollutants
in Model
none
none
none
none
CO
NO2
PIM10
SO2
none
none
Percent of Total Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3
Standards**
0.084/4***
0.1%
(-0.3% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.7%
(0% - 1 .3%)
0.8%
(0.3% - 1 .3%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.5%
(-0.2% -1.1%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.9%
(-0.4% -2.1%)
0.8%
(-1%-2.5%)
0.084/3
0.1%
(-0.3% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.6%
(0% - 1 .3%)
0.8%
(0.3% - 1 .2%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.4%
(-0.2% -1.1%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.8%
(-0.4% - 2%)
0.7%
(-1%-2.4%)
0.080/4
0.1%
(-0.2% - 0.4%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.6%
(0% - 1 .2%)
0.7%
(0.3% -1.1%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.4%
(-0.2% -1%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.8%
(-0.3% - 1 .9%)
0.7%
(-0.9% - 2.3%)
0.074/5
0.1%
(-0.2% - 0.3%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.5%
(0% - 0.9%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.3%
(-0.1% -0.8%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.6%
(-0.3% - 1 .5%)
0.6%
(-0.8% - 2%)
0.074/4
0.1%
(-0.2% - 0.3%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.9%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.3%
(-0.1% -0.7%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.6%
(-0.3% - 1 .5%)
0.6%
(-0.8% - 1 .9%)
0.074/3
0.1%
(-0.2% - 0.3%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.8%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.3%
(-0.1% -0.7%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.6%
(-0.2% - 1 .4%)
0.6%
(-0.7% - 1 .9%)
0.070/4
0.1%
(-0.1% -0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.4%
(0.2% - 0.6%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.6%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.5%
(-0.2% - 1 .2%)
0.5%
(-0.7% - 1 .7%)
0.064/4
0%
(-0.1% -0.2%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(-0.1% -0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.3%
(-0.1% -0.7%)
0.4%
(-0.5% - 1 .2%)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum
standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
*****Los Angeles is defined in this study as Los Angeles County.
******Los Angeles is defined in this study as Los Angeles, Riverside, San Bernardino, and Orange Counties. The spring C-R function was run with April - June air quality data; the summer C-R function was run with July - September air quality data.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E-52
December 2006
-------
Table E-40. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily
Maximum Standards: Los Angeles, CA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Hospital admissions
(unscheduled),
pulmonary illness —
Hospital admissions
(unscheduled),
pulmonary illness —
summer
Study
Bell et al. (2004)*****
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities
(2004)*****
Huang et al. (2004)*****
Huang et al. - 19 US
Cities (2004)*****
Huang et al. - 19 US
Cities (2004)****
Huang et al. - 19 US
Cities (2004)*****
Huang et al. - 19 US
Cities (2004)*****
Huang et al. - 19 US
Cities (2004)*****
Linn et al. (2000)******
Linn et al. (2000)******
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
30+
30+
Lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Other
Pollutants
In Model
none
none
none
none
CO
NO2
PM10
SO2
none
none
Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
24
(-58 - 1 05)
52
(17-86)
38
(0 - 76)
45
(17-72)
25
(7 - 42)
22
(4 - 39)
27
(-10-63)
18
(0 - 37)
34
(-15-82)
27
(-35 - 87)
0.084/3
23
(-55 - 1 00)
49
(17-82)
37
(0 - 73)
43
(16-69)
24
(7 - 40)
21
(4 - 37)
25
(-10-60)
18
(0 - 35)
33
(-14-80)
26
(-34 - 85)
0.080/4
21
(-50-91)
45
(15-74)
33
(0 - 66)
39
(15-62)
21
(6 - 37)
19
(3 - 34)
23
(-9 - 55)
16
(0 - 32)
31
(-13-74)
25
(-32-81)
0.074/5
15
(-36 - 66)
33
(11 -54)
24
(0 - 48)
28
(11 -45)
16
(5 - 27)
14
(2 - 25)
17
(-6 - 40)
12
(0 - 23)
24
(-10-59)
21
(-27 - 69)
0.074/4
15
(-35 - 64)
32
(1 1 - 53)
24
(0 - 47)
27
(10-44)
15
(4 - 26)
13
(2 - 24)
16
(-6 - 39)
11
(0 - 22)
24
(-1 0 - 58)
21
(-27 - 68)
0.074/3
13
(-32 - 59)
29
(10-48)
22
(0 - 43)
25
(10-41)
14
(4 - 24)
12
(2 - 22)
15
(-6 - 35)
10
(0-21)
23
(-10-55)
20
(-26 - 66)
0.070/4
11
(-26 - 48)
24
(8 - 39)
18
(0 - 35)
20
(8 - 33)
11
(3-19)
10
(2-18)
12
(-5 - 29)
8
(0-17)
19
(-8 - 46)
18
(-23 - 58)
0.064/4
7
(-1 6 - 29)
14
(5 - 23)
11
(0-21)
12
(5 - 20)
7
(2-12)
6
(1 -11)
7
(-3-17)
5
(0-10)
12
(-5 - 28)
13
(-17-43)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily
maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
*****Los Angeles is defined in this study as Los Angeles County.
******Los Angeles is defined in this study as Los Angeles, Riverside, San Bernardino, and Orange Counties. The spring C-R function was run with April - June air quality data; the summer C-R function was run with July - September air
quality data.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E-53
December 2006
-------
Table E-41. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current
and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Los Angeles, CA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Hospital admissions
(unscheduled),
pulmonary illness -
spring
Hospital admissions
(unscheduled),
pulmonary illness -
summer
Study
Bell et al. (2004)*****
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities
(2004)*****
Huang et al. (2004)*****
Huang et al. - 19 US
Cities (2004)*****
Huang et al. - 19 US
Cities (2004)****
Huang et al. - 19 US
Cities (2004)*****
Huang et al. - 19 US
Cities (2004)*****
Huang et al. - 19 US
Cities (2004)*****
Linn et al. (2000)******
Linn et al. (2000)******
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
30+
30+
Lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Other
Pollutants
In Model
none
none
none
none
CO
N02
PM10
S02
none
none
Incidence of Health Effects per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current
and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
0.3
(-0.6-1.1)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.9)
0.4
(0 - 0.8)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.8)
0.3
(0.1 - 0.4)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
0.3
(-0.1 -0.7)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
0.4
(-0.2-1)
0.3
(-0.4-1)
0.084/3
0.2
(-0.6-1.1)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.9)
0.4
(0 - 0.8)
0.4
(0.2 - 0.7)
0.2
(0.1 - 0.4)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
0.3
(-0.1 -0.6)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
0.4
(-0.2-1)
0.3
(-0.4-1)
0.080/4
0.2
(-0.5-1)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.8)
0.4
(0 - 0.7)
0.4
(0.2 - 0.7)
0.2
(0.1 - 0.4)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
0.2
(-0.1 -0.6)
0.2
(0 - 0.3)
0.4
(-0.2 - 0.9)
0.3
(-0.4-1)
0.074/5
0.2
(-0.4 - 0.7)
0.3
(0.1 -0.6)
0.3
(0 - 0.5)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
0.2
(0 - 0.3)
0.1
(0 - 0.3)
0.2
(-0.1 -0.4)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.3
(-0.1 -0.7)
0.3
(-0.3 - 0.8)
0.074/4
0.2
(-0.4 - 0.7)
0.3
(0.1 -0.6)
0.2
(0 - 0.5)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
0.2
(0 - 0.3)
0.1
(0 - 0.3)
0.2
(-0.1 - 0.4)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.3
(-0.1 - 0.7)
0.2
(-0.3 - 0.8)
0.074/3
0.1
(-0.3 - 0.6)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
0.2
(0 - 0.5)
0.3
(0.1 -0.4)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.2
(-0.1 - 0.4)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.3
(-0.1 - 0.7)
0.2
(-0.3 - 0.8)
0.070/4
0.1
(-0.3 - 0.5)
0.2
(0.1 -0.4)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
0.2
(0.1 -0.3)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.1
(0 - 0.3)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.2
(-0.1 - 0.5)
0.2
(-0.3 - 0.7)
0.064/4
0.1
(-0.2 - 0.3)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.1
(0-0.1)
0.1
(0-0.1)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.1
(0-0.1)
0.1
(-0.1 - 0.3)
0.2
(-0.2 - 0.5)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily
maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
*****Los Angeles is defined in this study as Los Angeles County.
******Los Angeles is defined in this study as Los Angeles, Riverside, San Bernardino, and Orange Counties. The spring C-R function was run with April - June air quality data; the summer C-R function was run with July - September air
quality data.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E-54
December 2006
-------
Table E-42. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour
Daily Maximum Standards: Los Angeles, CA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Hospital admissions
(unscheduled),
pulmonary illness —
spring
Hospital admissions
(unscheduled),
pulmonary illness —
summer
Study
Bell et al. (2004)*****
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities
(2004)*****
Huang et al. (2004)*****
Huang etal. - 19 US
Cities (2004)*****
Huang etal.- 19 US
Cities (2004)****
Huang etal.- 19 US
Cities (2004)*****
Huang etal.- 19 US
Cities (2004)*****
Huang etal.- 19 US
Cities (2004)*****
Linn et al. (2000)******
Linn et al. (2000)******
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
30+
30+
Lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
Other
Pollutants
in Model
none
none
none
none
CO
NO2
PIM10
SO2
none
none
Percent of Total Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3
Standards**
0.084/4***
0.1%
(-0.2% - 0.4%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.5%
(0%-1%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.4%
(-0.1% -0.9%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.8%
(-0.3% - 1 .9%)
0.7%
(-0.9% - 2.4%)
0.084/3
0.1%
(-0.2% - 0.4%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.5%
(0%-1%)
0.6%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.3%
(-0.1% -0.8%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.8%
(-0.3% - 1 .8%)
0.7%
(-0.9% -2.3%)
0.080/4
0.1%
(-0.2% - 0.3%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.5%
(0% - 0.9%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.3%
(-0.1% -0.7%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.7%
(-0.3% - 1 .7%)
0.7%
(-0.9% - 2.2%)
0.074/5
0.1%
(-0.1% -0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.6%
(-0.2% - 1 .4%)
0.6%
(-0.7% - 1 .9%)
0.074/4
0.1%
(-0.1% -0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.6%
(-0.2% - 1 .3%)
0.6%
(-0.7% - 1 .9%)
0.074/3
0%
(-0.1% -0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.5%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.5%
(-0.2% - 1 .3%)
0.5%
(-0.7% - 1 .8%)
0.070/4
0%
(-0.1% -0.2%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.4%
(-0.2% -1.1%)
0.5%
(-0.6% - 1 .6%)
0.064/4
0%
(-0.1% -0.1%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.3%
(-0.1% -0.6%)
0.4%
(-0.5% - 1 .2%)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum
standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
*****Los Angeles is defined in this study as Los Angeles County.
******Los Angeles is defined in this study as Los Angeles, Riverside, San Bernardino, and Orange Counties. The spring C-R function was run with April - June air quality data; the summer C-R function was run with July - September air quality data.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E-55
December 2006
-------
Table E-43. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily
Maximum Standards: Philadelphia, PA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Study
Bell et al. - 95 US
Cities (2004)
Moolgavkar et al.
(1995)
Moolgavkar et al.
(1995)
Huang et al. (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
Lag
distributed
lag
1 -day lag
1 -day lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Other
Pollutants
in Model
none
none
TSP, S02
none
none
CO
N02
PM10
S02
Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3
Standards**
0.084/4***
17
(6 - 28)
59
(37-81)
59
(28 - 90)
15
(1 - 28)
12
(5-19)
7
(2-11)
6
(1-11)
7
(-3-17)
5
(0-10)
0.084/3
15
(5 - 25)
54
(34 - 75)
54
(26 - 82)
14
(1 - 26)
11
(4-18)
6
(2-11)
5
(1-10)
7
(-3-16)
5
(0-9)
0.080/4
15
(5 - 25)
54
(34 - 74)
53
(25-81)
13
(1 - 26)
11
(4-18)
6
(2-10)
5
(1-10)
7
(-2-15)
5
(0-9)
0.074/5
13
(4-22)
47
(30 - 65)
47
(22-71)
12
(1 - 23)
10
(4-16)
5
(2-9)
5
(1-8)
6
(-2-14)
4
(0-8)
0.074/4
13
(4-21)
46
(29 - 63)
46
(22 - 69)
11
(1 - 22)
9
(4-15)
5
(2-9)
5
(1-8)
6
(-2-13)
4
(0-8)
0.074/3
12
(4-20)
42
(27 - 58)
42
(20 - 64)
10
(0 - 20)
9
(3-14)
5
(1-8)
4
(1-8)
5
(-2-12)
4
(0-7)
0.070/4
11
(4-19)
41
(26 - 56)
41
(19-62)
10
(0 - 20)
8
(3-13)
5
(1-8)
4
(1-7)
5
(-2-12)
3
(0-7)
0.064/4
9
(3-15)
33
(21 - 46)
33
(16-50)
8
(0-16)
7
(3-11)
4
(1-6)
3
(1-6)
4
(-2-10)
3
(0-6)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average.
These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E-56
December 2006
-------
Table E-44. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current
and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Philadelphia, PA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Study
Bell et al. - 95 US
Cities (2004)
Moolgavkar et al.
(1995)
Moolgavkar et al.
(1995)
Huang et al. (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
Lag
distributed
lag
1 -day lag
1 -day lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Other
Pollutants
in Model
none
none
TSP, S02
none
none
CO
N02
PM10
S02
Incidence of Health Effects per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the
Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
1.1
(0.4 - 1 .8)
3.9
(2.5 - 5.3)
3.9
(1.8-5.9)
1
(0-1.9)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .3)
0.4
(0.1 -0.8)
0.4
(0.1 -0.7)
0.5
(-0.2-1.1)
0.3
(0 - 0.7)
0.084/3
1
(0.3 - 1 .7)
3.6
(2.3 - 4.9)
3.6
(1.7-5.4)
0.9
(0-1.7)
0.7
(0.3 - 1 .2)
0.4
(0.1 -0.7)
0.4
(0.1 -0.6)
0.4
(-0.2-1)
0.3
(0 - 0.6)
0.080/4
1
(0.3 - 1 .7)
3.5
(2.2 - 4.9)
3.5
(1.7-5.4)
0.9
(0-1.7)
0.7
(0.3 - 1 .2)
0.4
(0.1 -0.7)
0.3
(0.1 -0.6)
0.4
(-0.2-1)
0.3
(0 - 0.6)
0.074/5
0.9
(0.3 - 1 .5)
3.1
(2 - 4.3)
3.1
(1.5-4.7)
0.8
(0-1.5)
0.6
(0.2-1)
0.4
(0.1 -0.6)
0.3
(0.1 -0.6)
0.4
(-0.1 -0.9)
0.3
(0 - 0.5)
0.074/4
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .4)
3
(1.9-4.2)
3
(1.4-4.6)
0.8
(0-1.5)
0.6
(0.2-1)
0.3
(0.1 -0.6)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
0.4
(-0.1 -0.9)
0.3
(0 - 0.5)
0.074/3
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .3)
2.8
(1.8-3.8)
2.8
(1.3-4.2)
0.7
(0-1.3)
0.6
(0.2 - 0.9)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
0.3
(0 - 0.5)
0.3
(-0.1 -0.8)
0.2
(0 - 0.5)
0.070/4
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .3)
2.7
(1.7-3.7)
2.7
(1.3-4.1)
0.7
(0-1.3)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.9)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
0.3
(0 - 0.5)
0.3
(-0.1 -0.8)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
0.064/4
0.6
(0.2-1)
2.2
(1.4-3)
2.2
(1 - 3.3)
0.5
(0-1.1)
0.4
(0.2 - 0.7)
0.2
(0.1 -0.4)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
0.3
(-0.1 -0.6)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard
These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average.
ppm).
Abt Associates Inc.
E-57
December 2006
-------
Table E-45. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour
Daily Maximum Standards: Philadelphia, PA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Study
Bell et al. - 95 US
Cities (2004)
Moolgavkar et al.
(1995)
Moolgavkar et al.
(1995)
Huang et al. (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
Lag
distributed
lag
1-day lag
1 -day lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
Other
Pollutants
In Model
none
none
TSP, SO2
none
none
CO
NO2
PM10
SO2
Percent of Total Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3
Standards**
0.084/4***
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.7%
(0.5%- 1%)
0.7%
(0.3% -1.1%)
0.8%
(0% - 1 .5%)
0.7%
(0.3% -1.1%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.4%
(-0.1% -0.9%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.084/3
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.7%
(0.4% - 0.9%)
0.7%
(0.3% -1%)
0.7%
(0% - 1 .4%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.4%
(-0.1% -0.8%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.080/4
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.7%
(0.4% - 0.9%)
0.7%
(0.3% -1%)
0.7%
(0% - 1 .4%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.4%
(-0.1% -0.8%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.074/5
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.6%
(0.4% - 0.8%)
0.6%
(0.3% - 0.9%)
0.6%
(0% - 1 .2%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.3%
(-0.1% -0.7%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.074/4
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.6%
(0.4% - 0.8%)
0.6%
(0.3% - 0.9%)
0.6%
(0% - 1 .2%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.3%
(-0.1% -0.7%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.074/3
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.5%
(0.3% - 0.7%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.6%
(0%- 1.1%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.3%
(-0.1% -0.7%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.070/4
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.5%
(0.3% - 0.7%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.6%
(0%- 1.1%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.7%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.3%
(-0.1% -0.6%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.064/4
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.4%
(0.3% - 0.6%)
0.4%
(0.2% - 0.6%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.9%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.2%
(-0.1% -0.5%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
"These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 - 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily
maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E-58
December 2006
-------
Table E-46. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily
Maximum Standards: Philadelphia, PA, April -September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Study
Bell et al. -- 95 US
Cities (2004)
Moolgavkar et al.
(1995)
Moolgavkar et al.
(1 995)
Huang et al. (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
Lag
distributed
lag
1-day lag
1-day lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Other
Pollutants
In Model
none
none
TSP, S02
none
none
CO
N02
PM10
S02
Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
30
(1 0 - 50)
107
(67-146)
106
(51 - 161)
26
(1 -51)
22
(8 - 35)
12
(4-21)
11
(2-19)
13
(-5-31)
9
(0-18)
0.084/3
28
(1 0 - 47)
101
(63-138)
100
(48 - 1 52)
25
(1 - 48)
21
(8 - 33)
11
(3-19)
10
(2-18)
12
(-5 - 29)
8
(0-17)
0.080/4
28
(9 - 47)
101
(63-137)
100
(48- 151)
25
(1 - 48)
21
(8 - 33)
11
(3-19)
10
(2-18)
12
(-5 - 29)
8
(0-17)
0.074/5
26
(9 - 43)
93
(58-127)
92
(44 - 1 40)
23
(1 - 44)
19
(7 - 30)
11
(3-18)
9
(2-17)
11
(-4 - 27)
8
(0-16)
0.074/4
26
(9 - 42)
91
(57- 124)
90
(43- 137)
23
(1 - 44)
19
(7 - 30)
10
(3-18)
9
(2-16)
11
(-4 - 26)
8
(0-15)
0.074/3
24
(8 - 40)
86
(54- 117)
85
(41 - 129)
21
(1-41)
18
(7 - 28)
10
(3-17)
8
(2-15)
10
(-4 - 25)
7
(0-14)
0.070/4
24
(8 - 40)
85
(53- 116)
84
(40- 128)
21
(1 -41)
17
(7 - 28)
10
(3-16)
8
(1 -15)
10
(-4 - 24)
7
(0-14)
0.064/4
21
(7 - 35)
75
(47- 103)
75
(36 - 1 1 4)
19
(1 - 36)
15
(6 - 25)
9
(3-15)
7
(1 -14)
9
(-4 - 22)
6
(0-13)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth
daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E-59
December 2006
-------
Table E-47. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current
and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Philadelphia, PA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Study
Bell et al. -- 95 US
Cities (2004)
Moolgavkar et al.
(1995)
Moolgavkar et al.
(1 995)
Huang et al. (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
Lag
distributed
lag
1-day lag
1-day lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Other
Pollutants
In Model
none
none
TSP, S02
none
none
CO
N02
PM10
S02
Incidence of Health Effects per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current
and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
2
(0.7 - 3.3)
7
(4.4 - 9.6)
7
(3.3- 10.6)
1.7
(0.1 - 3.4)
1.4
(0.5 - 2.3)
0.8
(0.2- 1.4)
0.7
(0.1 - 1.3)
0.9
(-0.3 - 2)
0.6
(0-1.2)
0.084/3
1.9
(0.6-3.1)
6.6
(4.2-9.1)
6.6
(3.2 - 10)
1.6
(0.1 - 3.2)
1.4
(0.5 - 2.2)
0.8
(0.2- 1.3)
0.7
(0.1 - 1.2)
0.8
(-0.3 - 1 .9)
0.6
(0-1.1)
0.080/4
1.9
(0.6-3.1)
6.6
(4.2-9.1)
6.6
(3.1 - 10)
1.6
(0.1 - 3.2)
1.4
(0.5 - 2.2)
0.8
(0.2- 1.3)
0.7
(0.1 - 1.2)
0.8
(-0.3 - 1 .9)
0.6
(0-1.1)
0.074/5
1.7
(0.6-2.9)
6.1
(3.9 - 8.4)
6.1
(2.9 - 9.2)
1.5
(0.1 -2.9)
1.2
(0.5 - 2)
0.7
(0.2 - 1 .2)
0.6
(0.1 -1.1)
0.7
(-0.3 - 1 .8)
0.5
(0-1)
0.074/4
1.7
(0.6-2.8)
6
(3.8 - 8.2)
6
(2.8-9)
1.5
(0.1 -2.9)
1.2
(0.5 - 2)
0.7
(0.2 - 1 .2)
0.6
(0.1 -1.1)
0.7
(-0.3- 1.7)
0.5
(0-1)
0.074/3
1.6
(0.5-2.6)
5.7
(3.6 - 7.7)
5.6
(2.7 - 8.5)
1.4
(0.1 -2.7)
1.2
(0.4 - 1 .9)
0.6
(0.2-1.1)
0.6
(0.1 - 1)
0.7
(-0.3- 1.6)
0.5
(0 - 0.9)
0.070/4
1.6
(0.5-2.6)
5.6
(3.5 - 7.6)
5.6
(2.7 - 8.4)
1.4
(0.1 -2.7)
1.1
(0.4 - 1 .8)
0.6
(0.2-1.1)
0.6
(0.1 - 1)
0.7
(-0.3- 1.6)
0.5
(0 - 0.9)
0.064/4
1.4
(0.5-2.3)
5
(3.1 -6.8)
4.9
(2.4 - 7.5)
1.2
(0.1 -2.4)
1
(0.4 - 1 .6)
0.6
(0.2 - 1)
0.5
(0.1 -0.9)
0.6
(-0.2- 1.4)
0.4
(0 - 0.8)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth
daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E-60
December 2006
-------
Table E-48. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour
Daily Maximum Standards: Philadelphia, PA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Mortality,
cardiorespiratory
Study
Bell et al. - 95 US
Cities (2004)
IMoolgavkar et al.
(1995)
IMoolgavkar et al.
(1995)
Huang et al. (2004)
Huang et al. — 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. — 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. - 19
US Cities (2004)
Huang et al. — 19
US Cities (2004)
Ages
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
Lag
distributed
lag
1-day lag
1-day lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
Other
Pollutants
in Model
none
none
TSP, SO2
none
none
CO
NO2
PIM10
SO2
Percent of Total Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3
Standards**
0.084/4***
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
1 .3%
(0.8% - 1 .8%)
1 .3%
(0.6% - 2%)
1 .4%
(0.1% -2.8%)
1 .2%
(0.5% - 1 .9%)
0.7%
(0.2% -1.1%)
0.6%
(0.1% -1%)
0.7%
(-0.3% - 1 .7%)
0.5%
(0%-1%)
0.084/3
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
1 .3%
(0.8% - 1 .7%)
1 .2%
(0.6% - 1 .9%)
1 .4%
(0.1% -2.6%)
1.1%
(0.4% - 1 .8%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1.1%)
0.5%
(0.1%- 1%)
0.7%
(-0.3% - 1 .6%)
0.5%
(0%-0.9%)
0.080/4
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
1 .3%
(0.8% - 1 .7%)
1 .2%
(0.6% - 1 .9%)
1 .4%
(0.1% -2.6%)
1.1%
(0.4% - 1 .8%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1.1%)
0.5%
(0.1% -1%)
0.7%
(-0.3% - 1 .6%)
0.5%
(0% - 0.9%)
0.074/5
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
1 .2%
(0.7% - 1 .6%)
1.1%
(0.5% - 1 .7%)
1 .2%
(0.1% -2.4%)
1%
(0.4% - 1 .7%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1%)
0.5%
(0.1% -0.9%)
0.6%
(-0.2% - 1 .4%)
0.4%
(0%-0.8%)
0.074/4
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
1.1%
(0.7% - 1 .5%)
1.1%
(0.5% - 1 .7%)
1 .2%
(0.1% -2.4%)
1%
(0.4% - 1 .6%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1%)
0.5%
(0.1% -0.9%)
0.6%
(-0.2% - 1 .4%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.8%)
0.074/3
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
1.1%
(0.7% - 1 .5%)
1.1%
(0.5% - 1 .6%)
1 .2%
(0.1% -2.2%)
1%
(0.4% - 1 .5%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.5%
(0.1% -0.8%)
0.6%
(-0.2% - 1 .3%)
0.4%
(0%-0.8%)
0.070/4
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
1.1%
(0.7% - 1 .4%)
1%
(0.5% - 1 .6%)
1.1%
(0.1% -2.2%)
0.9%
(0.4% - 1 .5%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.5%
(0.1% -0.8%)
0.6%
(-0.2% - 1 .3%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.8%)
0.064/4
0.3%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.9%
(0.6% - 1 .3%)
0.9%
(0.4% - 1 .4%)
1%
(0% - 2%)
0.8%
(0.3% - 1 .3%)
0.5%
(0.1% -0.8%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.5%
(-0.2% - 1 .2%)
0.3%
(0%-0.7%)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
""Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
"""These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily
maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
""""This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E-61
December 2006
-------
Table E-49. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily
Maximum Standards: Sacramento, CA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US
Cities (2004)
Ages
all
all
Lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Other
Pollutants
In Model
none
none
Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3
Standards**
0.084/4***
8
(-25 - 42)
12
(4-21)
0.084/3
8
(-25-41)
12
(4 - 20)
0.080/4
8
(-23 - 39)
11
(4-19)
0.074/5
7
(-21 - 35)
10
(4-17)
0.074/4
7
(-21 - 34)
10
(3-17)
0.074/3
7
(-20 - 34)
10
(3-17)
0.070/4
6
(-19-31)
9
(3-15)
0.064/4
5
(-16-26)
8
(3-13)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average.
These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E-62
December 2006
-------
Table E-50. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current
and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Sacramento, CA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US
Cities (2004)
Ages
all
all
Lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Other
Pollutants
in Model
none
none
Incidence of Health Effects per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the
Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
0.7
(-2.1 -3.4)
1
(0.3 - 1 .7)
0.084/3
0.7
(-2 - 3.3)
1
(0.3 - 1 .6)
0.080/4
0.6
(-1.9-3.1)
0.9
(0.3 - 1 .6)
0.074/5
0.6
(-1 .8 - 2.9)
0.9
(0.3 - 1 .4)
0.074/4
0.6
(-1 .7 - 2.8)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .4)
0.074/3
0.5
(-1.7-2.7)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .4)
0.070/4
0.5
(-1 .5 - 2.5)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .3)
0.064/4
0.4
(-1 .3 - 2.2)
0.6
(0.2-1.1)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These
nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E-63
December 2006
-------
Table E-51. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour
Daily Maximum Standards: Sacramento, CA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US
Cities (2004)
Ages
all
all
Lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
Other
Pollutants
In Model
none
none
Percent of Total Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3
Standards**
0.084/4***
0.2%
(-0.6%- 1%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.084/3
0.2%
(-0.6%- 1%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.080/4
0.2%
(-0.6% - 0.9%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.074/5
0.2%
(-0.5% - 0.8%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.074/4
0.2%
(-0.5% - 0.8%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.074/3
0.2%
(-0.5% - 0.8%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.070/4
0.1%
(-0.5% - 0.7%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.064/4
0.1%
(-0.4% - 0.6%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
"These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 - 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily
maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E-64
December 2006
-------
Table E-52. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily
Maximum Standards: Sacramento, CA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. -- 95 US
Cities (2004)
Ages
all
all
Lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Other
Pollutants
In Model
none
none
Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
12
(-37 - 60)
18
(6 - 30)
0.084/3
12
(-36 - 58)
17
(6 - 29)
0.080/4
11
(-35 - 57)
17
(6 - 28)
0.074/5
11
(-32 - 53)
16
(5 - 26)
0.074/4
10
(-32 - 52)
15
(5 - 26)
0.074/3
10
(-31 - 50)
15
(5 - 25)
0.070/4
10
(-30 - 49)
14
(5 - 24)
0.064/4
9
(-27 - 44)
13
(4 - 22)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth
daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E-65
December 2006
-------
Table E-53. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current
and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Sacramento, CA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. -- 95 US
Cities (2004)
Ages
all
all
Lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Other
Pollutants
In Model
none
none
Incidence of Health Effects per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current
and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
1
(-3 - 4.9)
1.5
(0.5-2.4)
0.084/3
1
(-2.9-4.8)
1.4
(0.5-2.4)
0.080/4
0.9
(-2.8-4.6)
1.4
(0.5-2.3)
0.074/5
0.9
(-2.6-4.3)
1.3
(0.4-2.1)
0.074/4
0.9
(-2.6 - 4.2)
1.3
(0.4-2.1)
0.074/3
0.8
(-2.5-4.1)
1.2
(0.4 - 2)
0.070/4
0.8
(-2.4 - 4)
1.2
(0.4 - 2)
0.064/4
0.7
(-2.2 - 3.6)
1.1
(0.4- 1.8)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth
daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E-66
December 2006
-------
Table E-54. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour
Daily Maximum Standards: Sacramento, CA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US
Cities (2004)
Ages
all
all
Lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
Other
Pollutants
in Model
none
none
Percent of Total Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3
Standards**
0.084/4***
0.3%
(-0.9% - 1 .4%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.084/3
0.3%
(-0.8% - 1 .4%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.080/4
0.3%
(-0.8% - 1 .3%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.074/5
0.3%
(-0.8% - 1 .3%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.074/4
0.2%
(-0.8% - 1 .2%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.074/3
0.2%
(-0.7% - 1 .2%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.070/4
0.2%
(-0.7% - 1 .2%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.064/4
0.2%
(-0.6% -1%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily
maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E-67
December 2006
-------
Table E-55. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily
Maximum Standards: St. Louis, MO, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US
Cities (2004)
Ages
all
all
Lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Other
Pollutants
in Model
none
none
Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3
Standards**
0.084/4***
3
(-4-9)
2
(1-4)
0.084/3
2
(-4-8)
2
(1-3)
0.080/4
2
(-4-8)
2
(1-3)
0.074/5
2
(-3 - 6)
2
(1-3)
0.074/4
2
(-3 - 6)
1
(0-2)
0.074/3
1
(-2 - 5)
1
(0-2)
0.070/4
1
(-2 - 5)
1
(0-2)
0.064/4
1
(-1 - 3)
1
(0-1)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These
nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E-68
December 2006
-------
Table E-56. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current
and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: St. Louis, MO, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US
Cities (2004)
Ages
all
all
Lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Other
Pollutants
in Model
none
none
Incidence of Health Effects per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the
Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
0.7
(-1 .2 - 2.7)
0.7
(0.2-1.1)
0.084/3
0.7
(-1.1-2.4)
0.6
(0.2-1)
0.080/4
0.6
(-1 - 2.3)
0.6
(0.2 - 0.9)
0.074/5
0.5
(-0.8 - 1 .8)
0.4
(0.2 - 0.7)
0.074/4
0.5
(-0.8 - 1 .7)
0.4
(0.1 -0.7)
0.074/3
0.4
(-0.7 - 1 .5)
0.4
(0.1 -0.6)
0.070/4
0.4
(-0.6 - 1 .3)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
0.064/4
0.2
(-0.4 - 0.9)
0.2
(0.1 -0.4)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These
nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E-69
December 2006
-------
Table E-57. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour
Daily Maximum Standards: St. Louis, MO, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US
Cities (2004)
Ages
all
all
Lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Other
Pollutants
In Model
none
none
Percent of Total Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3
Standards**
0.084/4***
0.1%
(-0.2% - 0.5%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.084/3
0.1%
(-0.2% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.080/4
0.1%
(-0.2% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.074/5
0.1%
(-0.1% -0.3%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.074/4
0.1%
(-0.1% -0.3%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.074/3
0.1%
(-0.1% -0.3%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.070/4
0.1%
(-0.1% -0.2%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.064/4
0%
(-0.1% -0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
"These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 - 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily
maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E-70
December 2006
-------
Table E-58. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily
Maximum Standards: St. Louis, MO, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US
Cities (2004)
Ages
all
all
Lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Other
Pollutants
In Model
none
none
Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
5
(-9 - 20)
5
(2-8)
0.084/3
5
(-9-19)
5
(2-8)
0.080/4
5
(-8-18)
4
(1 -7)
0.074/5
4
(-8-16)
4
(1-7)
0.074/4
4
(-7-15)
4
(1 -6)
0.074/3
4
(-7-15)
4
(1 -6)
0.070/4
4
(-6-14)
3
(1 -6)
0.064/4
3
(-5-12)
3
(1-5)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth
daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E-71
December 2006
-------
Table E-59. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current
and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: St. Louis, MO, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US
Cities (2004)
Ages
all
all
Lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Other
Pollutants
In Model
none
none
Incidence of Health Effects per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current
and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
1.6
(-2.6-5.6)
1.4
(0.5-2.3)
0.084/3
1.5
(-2.5-5.4)
1.3
(0.4-2.2)
0.080/4
1.4
(-2.4-5.2)
1.3
(0.4-2.1)
0.074/5
1.3
(-2.2 - 4.7)
1.2
(0.4- 1.9)
0.074/4
1.2
(-2.1 -4.5)
1.1
(0.4- 1.8)
0.074/3
1.2
(-2 - 4.3)
1.1
(0.4- 1.8)
0.070/4
1.1
(-1.8-4)
1
(0.3- 1.6)
0.064/4
0.9
(-1.5-3.3)
0.8
(0.3- 1.4)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth
daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E-72
December 2006
-------
Table E-60. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour
Daily Maximum Standards: St. Louis, MO, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects-
Mortality, non-
accidental
Mortality, non-
accidental
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US
Cities (2004)
Ages
all
all
Lag
distributed
lag
distributed
lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
Other
Pollutants
in Model
none
none
Percent of Total Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3
Standards**
0.084/4***
0.3%
(-0.5% -1%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.084/3
0.3%
(-0.4% - 0.9%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.080/4
0.2%
(-0.4% - 0.9%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.074/5
0.2%
(-0.4% - 0.8%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.074/4
0.2%
(-0.4% - 0.8%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.074/3
0.2%
(-0.3% - 0.7%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.070/4
0.2%
(-0.3% - 0.7%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.064/4
0.2%
(-0.3% - 0.6%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily
maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E-73
December 2006
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Table E-61. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily
Maximum Standards: Washington, D.C., April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Study
Bell et al. - 95 US
Cities (2004)
Ages
all
Lag
distributed
lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
Other
Pollutants
in Model
none
Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3
Standards**
0.084/4***
7
(2-12)
0.084/3
6
(2-10)
0.080/4
6
(2-11)
0.074/5
6
(2-9)
0.074/4
6
(2-9)
0.074/3
5
(2-8)
0.070/4
5
(2-8)
0.064/4
4
(1-7)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These
nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E-74
December 2006
-------
Table E-62. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current
and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Washington, D.C., April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Study
Bell et al. - 95 US
Cities (2004)
Ages
all
Lag
distributed
lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
Other
Pollutants
in Model
none
Incidence of Health Effects per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the
Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
1.2
(0.4-2.1)
0.084/3
1
(0.3 - 1 .7)
0.080/4
1.1
(0.4 - 1 .9)
0.074/5
1
(0.3 - 1 .6)
0.074/4
1
(0.3 - 1 .6)
0.074/3
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .4)
0.070/4
0.9
(0.3 - 1 .5)
0.064/4
0.7
(0.2 - 1 .2)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These
nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E-75
December 2006
-------
Table E-63. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour
Daily Maximum Standards: Washington, D.C., April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Study
Bell et al. - 95 US
Cities (2004)
Ages
all
Lag
distributed
lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hravg.
Other
Pollutants
in Model
none
Percent of Total Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3
Standards**
0.084/4***
0.3%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.084/3
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.080/4
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.074/5
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.074/4
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.074/3
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.070/4
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.064/4
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
""Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
"""These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily
maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
""""This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E- 76
December 2006
-------
Table E-64. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily
Maximum Standards: Washington, D.C., April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Study
Bell et al. -- 95 US
Cities (2004)
Ages
all
Lag
distributed
lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
Other
Pollutants
In Model
none
Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
14
(5 - 23)
0.084/3
12
(4 - 20)
0.080/4
13
(4-21)
0.074/5
12
(4-19)
0.074/4
12
(4-19)
0.074/3
10
(3-17)
0.070/4
11
(4-18)
0.064/4
10
(3-16)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth
daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E-77
December 2006
-------
Table E-65. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current
and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Washington, D.C., April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Study
Bell et al. -- 95 US
Cities (2004)
Ages
all
Lag
distributed
lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
Other
Pollutants
In Model
none
Incidence of Health Effects per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current
and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
2.4
(0.8 - 3.9)
0.084/3
2.1
(0.7 - 3.5)
0.080/4
2.2
(0.8 - 3.7)
0.074/5
2
(0.7 - 3.4)
0.074/4
2
(0.7 - 3.4)
0.074/3
1.8
(0.6 - 3)
0.070/4
1.9
(0.6 - 3.2)
0.064/4
1.7
(0.6-2.9)
"Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth
daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E-78
December 2006
-------
Table E-66. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour
Daily Maximum Standards: Washington, D.C., April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations
Health Effects*
Mortality, non-
accidental
Study
Bell et al. -- 95 US
Cities (2004)
Ages
all
Lag
distributed
lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
Other
Pollutants
in Model
none
Percent of Total Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
0.084/4***
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.084/3
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.080/4
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.074/5
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.074/4
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.074/3
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.070/4
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.064/4
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.
**lncidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 - 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum
standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
E-79
December 2006
-------
Appendix F: Calculation of Risk Above Policy Relevant Background
-------
Appendix F: Calculation of Risk Above Policy Relevant Background
The estimated policy relevant background (PRB) ozone concentrations that we are using
are derived from GEOS-CHEM model predictions, and the measured ambient ozone
concentrations are sometimes lower than these PRB values. There is a question of how to best
treat this in our estimation of risk above PRB.
Let x0 denote the "as is" (ambient) O3 level, and y0 denote the corresponding baseline
incidence rate. The difference in health effects incidence, Ay = y0 - y, corresponding to a given
difference in ambient O3 levels, Ax = (x0 - x) > 0 can be calculated for log-linear concentration-
response functions by:
Ay = y0[l-e-pAx]. (1)
If we let Ax = c - b, where c = the "as is" 63 concentration and b = the PRB 63 concentration, the
risk above background (Ay = y0 - yb = the difference in health effects incidence rates from the
as-is concentration incidence rate, yo, to the PRB concentration incidence rate, yb) can similarly
be calculated for log-linear concentration-response functions by equation 1 (where now Ay = y0
- yb and Ax = c - b).
Without loss of generality we can take the baseline incidence rate yo to be 1. Then
Ay = [l-e-pAx]. (2)
Now we consider the implications of different ways of calculating risk above
background. To simplify this analysis, we use the approximation to equation (2), valid for P ~ 0,
Ay = p Ax = p (c - b) . (3)
Let Ct be the measured concentrations (t=l to N), bt the true background concentrations, and B
the estimated background concentration. Then the overall bias, 0, in the estimated background is
given by
' (4)
t
The true risk above background, R, is
Abt Associates Inc. F-l December 2006
-------
If the measured concentrations Ct are always greater than the estimated background B, then
equation 3 (approximating equation 2) gives an estimated risk above background of
and the error E of this estimate is
However, the measured concentrations are sometimes smaller than the estimated background. In
these cases we cannot use equation 6 since it is not physically realizable. The error E of our risk
estimate will depend on how we calculate risk in this situation.
Method I. When Ct < B we set the risk to zero in equation 6, with the rationale that, since
ambient concentrations cannot go below background, we lower the estimated background
concentrations in these cases down to the ambient concentration Ct.
Then the estimate of risk above background is
P !(',-£) (8)
tct>B
where tct>B indicates the summation over all times t when Ct > B.
The error E of this estimate is
tct>B tc,B tct
-------
t tct>B t\ct 0, and En > 0. Since the second term in E1/,
P ^_t\ct ~ "), must be < 0, Et < En . If, as is likely, P 2-i ^Cf ~ ' is smaller in absolute
/ c,
-------
Appendix G: Explanation of How a Distributed Lag Model Can Be Used in the Risk
Assessment
-------
A linear concentration-response (C-R) function with a distributed lag has the following form:
yt=a + (30xt + AX,_! + (32xt_2 +... + (3nxt_n
Without loss of generality, we illustrate the application of a distributed lag model to a risk
assessment letting n=2 - i.e., with a model in which today's mortality is a function of today's
pollutant concentration, xt, yesterday's pollutant concentration, xt.i, and the day before
yesterday's pollutant concentration, xt_2. The model is:
yt = a + 00xt + A*,_i + (32xt_2 .
Given this model, the following three equations hold:
yt = a + (30xt + A*,-i + (32xt_2
yt+2 =a + (J0xt+2 + ^XM + P2xt
Summing these three equations and collecting terms yields:
,+2 + HT # LI + Z A k + Z A Li
Thus a change in the pollutant concentration on day t (i.e., a change in xt) results in a change in
t+2
the sum of mortality cases on days t, t+1, and t+2. In particular, if we let zt denote TV , then
f)Z
Thus, the change in the sum of mortality incidence on the same day, next day, and day after that
equals the sum of the coefficients for the pollutant concentration on the same day, the previous
day, and the day before that. Note that the application of a distributed lag model in a risk
assessment thus does not require any assumption that the decreases on all the days in the model
are the same. It does require that the distributed lag C-R function is linear. Because the log-
linear functions used in the risk assessment are almost linear, the above is a good approximation.
Abt Associates Inc. G-l December 2006
-------
Appendix H: Additional Results for Five Locations for the Current Standard and Two
Alternative Standards, Based on 2002, 2003, and 2004 Air Quality Data
-------
Table H-1. Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and
Two Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on Adjusting 2003 O3 Concentrations*
Location
Atlanta
Chicago
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with 2003 O3
Concentrations and O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and
Alternative O3 Standards**
2003 Air Quality
6
(-26 - 37)
12
(4 - 20)
64
(22 - 1 07)
445
(1 41 - 742)
168
(53 - 282)
36
(2 - 70)
18
(6 - 30)
101
(9-191)
84
(26 - 1 41 )
56
(-136-246)
121
(41 - 201 )
79
(27 - 1 32)
0.084/4***
5
(-20 - 29)
9
(3-15)
55
(18-91)
403
(1 28 - 674)
152
(48 - 256)
18
(1 - 35)
9
(3-15)
66
(6 - 1 25)
55
(17-93)
22
(-52 - 95)
47
(16-78)
54
(18-90)
0.074/4
4
(-1 5 - 22)
7
(2-12)
43
(14-71)
332
(1 05 - 556)
125
(39-211)
11
(1 - 22)
6
(2-9)
52
(5 - 98)
43
(14-73)
12
(-28-51)
25
(8 - 42)
43
(15-72)
0.064/4
3
(-11 -16)
5
(2-8)
31
(10-52)
261
(83 - 438)
98
(31 -166)
4
(0-8)
2
(1 -3)
34
(3 - 65)
28
(9 - 48)
5
(-1 2 - 23)
11
(4-18)
32
(11-54)
*AII results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm,
4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g.,
0.084 ppm).
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
H-1
December 2006
-------
Table H-2. Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations
that Just Meet the Current and Two Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on
Adjusting 2003 O3 Concentrations*
Location
Atlanta
Chicago
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortal ty per 100,000 Relevant Population
Associated with 2003 O3 Concentrations and O3 Concentrations that Just
Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
2003 Air Quality
0.4
(-1.7-2.5)
0.8
(0.3- 1.3)
1.2
(0.4 - 2)
8.3
(2.6-13.8)
3.1
(1 - 5.3)
1.1
(0.1 - 2)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.9)
3
(0.3 - 5.6)
2.5
(0.8 - 4.2)
0.6
(-1.4-2.6)
1.3
(0.4-2.1)
0.9
(0.3- 1.5)
0.084/4***
0.3
(-1.3-2)
0.6
(0.2-1)
1
(0.3-1.7)
7.5
(2.4-12.5)
2.8
(0.9 - 4.8)
0.5
(0-1)
0.3
(0.1 - 0.4)
1.9
(0.2 - 3.7)
1.6
(0.5 - 2.7)
0.2
(-0.5-1)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.8)
0.6
(0.2-1)
0.074/4
0.2
(-1 - 1 .5)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.8)
0.8
(0.3-1.3)
6.2
(2-10.3)
2.3
(0.7 - 3.9)
0.3
(0 - 0.6)
0.2
(0.1 - 0.3)
1.5
(0.1 - 2.9)
1.3
(0.4-2.1)
0.1
(-0.3 - 0.5)
0.3
(0.1 - 0.4)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.8)
0.064/4
0.2
(-0.7-1.1)
0.3
(0.1 - 0.6)
0.6
(0.2-1)
4.9
(1.5-8.1)
1.8
(0.6-3.1)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.1
(0-0.1)
1
(0.1 - 1.9)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .4)
0.1
(-0.1 -0.2)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.4
(0.1 - 0.6)
*AII results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm,
4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g.,
0.084 ppm).
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
H-2
December 2006
-------
Table H-3. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet
the Current and Two Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on Adjusting 2003 O3
Concentrations*
Location
Atlanta
Chicago
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with
2003 O3 Concentrations and O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current
and Alternative O3 Standards**
2003 Air Quality
0.1%
(-0.6% - 0.8%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
2.1%
(0.7% - 3.5%)
0.8%
(0.2% - 1 .3%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.8%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
1.1%
(0.1% -2.1%)
0.9%
(0.3% - 1 .6%)
0.2%
(-0.5% - 0.9%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.084/4***
0.1%
(-0.4% - 0.6%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.4%)
1.9%
(0.6% - 3.2%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .2%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.7%
(0.1% -1.4%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1%)
0.1%
(-0.2% - 0.3%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.074/4
0.1%
(-0.3% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
1.6%
(0.5% - 2.6%)
0.6%
(0.2% -1%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.6%
(0.1% -1.1%)
0.5%
(0.1% -0.8%)
0%
(-0.1% -0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.064/4
0.1%
(-0.2% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
1.2%
(0.4% -2.1%)
0.5%
(0.1% -0.8%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0% - 0%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
"All results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084
ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified
level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
H-3
December 2006
-------
Table H-4. Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and
Two Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations*
Location
Atlanta
Chicago
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with 2004 O3
Concentrations and O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and
Alternative O3 Standards**
2004 Air Quality
6
(-26 - 38)
12
(4 - 20)
49
(16-81)
394
(1 25 - 658)
148
(46 - 250)
35
(2 - 67)
17
(6 - 28)
93
(9- 176)
78
(24-130)
62
(-149-271)
133
(45-221)
60
(20 - 1 00)
0.084/4***
5
(-20 - 29)
9
(3-15)
33
(1 1 - 55)
314
(99 - 525)
118
(37- 199)
22
(1 - 42)
11
(4-18)
70
(6-132)
58
(1 8 - 98)
31
(-74 - 1 35)
67
(22- 111)
43
(15-72)
0.074/4
4
(-15-22)
7
(2-12)
23
(8 - 39)
249
(79-417)
93
(29 - 1 57)
16
(1 - 30)
8
(3-13)
57
(5- 109)
48
(15-81)
20
(-49 - 90)
44
(15-74)
33
(11 -55)
0.064/4
3
(-11-16)
5
(2-8)
14
(5 - 24)
183
(58 - 307)
69
(21 - 116)
8
(0-15)
4
(1-6)
42
(4 - 80)
35
(1 1 - 59)
9
(-22-41)
20
(7 - 33)
24
(8 - 39)
"All results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm,
4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g.,
0.084 ppm).
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
H-4
December 2006
-------
Table H-5. Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations
that Just Meet the Current and Two Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on
Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations*
Location
Atlanta
Chicago
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortal ty per 100,000 Relevant Population
Associated with 2004 O3 Concentrations and O3 Concentrations that Just
Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
2004 Air Quality
0.4
(-1.8-2.6)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .4)
0.9
(0.3 - 1 .5)
7.3
(2.3-12.2)
2.8
(0.9 - 4.6)
1
(0.1 -2)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.8)
2.7
(0.3 - 5.2)
2.3
(0.7 - 3.8)
0.6
(-1.6-2.8)
1.4
(0.5-2.3)
0.7
(0.2 - 1.1)
0.084/4***
0.3
(-1 .3 - 1 .9)
0.6
(0.2 - 1)
0.6
(0.2 - 1)
5.8
(1.9-9.8)
2.2
(0.7 - 3.7)
0.6
(0 - 1 .2)
0.3
(0.1 - 0.5)
2
(0.2 - 3.9)
1.7
(0.5 - 2.9)
0.3
(-0.8- 1.4)
0.7
(0.2- 1.2)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.8)
0.074/4
0.2
(-1 - 1 .5)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.8)
0.4
(0.1 -0.7)
4.6
(1.5-7.7)
1.7
(0.5-2.9)
0.5
(0 - 0.9)
0.2
(0.1 -0.4)
1.7
(0.2 - 3.2)
1.4
(0.4-2.4)
0.2
(-0.5 - 0.9)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.8)
0.4
(0.1 -0.6)
0.064/4
0.2
(-0.7-1.1)
0.3
(0.1 - 0.6)
0.3
(0.1 - 0.4)
3.4
(1.1-5.7)
1.3
(0.4 - 2.2)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
1.2
(0.1 - 2.3)
1
(0.3- 1.7)
0.1
(-0.2 - 0.4)
0.2
(0.1 - 0.4)
0.3
(0.1 - 0.4)
*AII results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm,
4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g.,
0.084 ppm).
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
H-5
December 2006
-------
Table H-6. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the
Current and Two Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3
Concentrations*
Location
Atlanta
Chicago
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with 2004
O3 Concentrations and O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and
Alternative O3 Standards**
2004 Air Quality
0.1%
(-0.6% - 0.8%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
1 .9%
(0.6% -3.1%)
0.7%
(0.2% - 1 .2%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.7%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
1%
(0.1%- 1.9%)
0.9%
(0.3% - 1 .4%)
0.2%
(-0.5%- 1%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.084/4***
0.1%
(-0.4% - 0.6%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
1 .5%
(0.5% - 2.5%)
0.6%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.8%
(0.1%- 1.5%)
0.6%
(0.2%- 1.1%)
0.1%
(-0.3% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.074/4
0.1%
(-0.3% - 0.5%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
1.2%
(0.4% - 2%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.6%
(0.1%- 1.2%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.1%
(-0.2% - 0.3%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.064/4
0.1%
(-0.2% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.9%
(0.3%- 1.5%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.2%)
0%
(0%-0.1%)
0.5%
(0% - 0.9%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.7%)
0%
(-0.1% -0.2%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
0.1%
(0%-0.1%)
"All results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm,
4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g.,
0.084 ppm).
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
H-6
December 2006
-------
Table H-7. Estimated Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Two
Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on Adjusting 2003 O3 Concentrations*
Risk Assessment Location
Atlanta
Chicago
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Study Location
Atlanta
19 U.S. Cities
Chicago
19 U.S. Cities
Houston
19 U.S. Cities
Los Angeles
19 U.S. Cities
New York
19 U.S. Cities
Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative
O3 Standards**
2003 Air Quality
8
(-2-17)
8
(3-13)
30
(-27 - 86)
49
(19-80)
13
(-2-27)
13
(5-21)
90
(1-178)
104
(40-168)
97
(31 -161)
71
(27-114)
0.084/4***
6
(-2-14)
6
(2-10)
16
(-14-45)
26
(10-41)
8
(-1-16)
8
(3-13)
50
(0-98)
57
(22 - 93)
53
(17-89)
39
(15-63)
0.074/4
4
(-1-10)
4
(2-7)
17
(-15-49)
28
(11 -45)
6
(-1-13)
6
(2-10)
24
(0-48)
28
(11 -45)
50
(16-83)
36
(14-59)
0.064/4
5
(-1-11)
5
(2-8)
20
(-18-58)
33
(13-53)
4
(-1-9)
4
(2-7)
19
(0-37)
22
(8-35)
53
(17-89)
39
(15-63)
*AII results are for cardiovascular and respiratory mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. Results are based on single-pollutant single-city models or a
single-pollutant multi-city model estimated in Huang et al. (2004).
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number.
"These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 - 0.084
ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified
level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
H-7
December 2006
-------
Table H-8. Estimated Cardiorespiratory Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that
Just Meet the Current and Two Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on
Adjusting 2003 O3 Concentrations*
Risk Assessment Location
Atlanta
Chicago
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Study Location
Atlanta
19 U.S. Cities
Chicago
19 U.S. Cities
Houston
19 U.S. Cities
Los Angeles
19 U.S. Cities
New York
19 U.S. Cities
Cardiorespiratory Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just
Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
2003 Air Quality
0.5
(-0.2-1.2)
0.5
(0.2-0.9)
0.6
(-0.5-1.6)
0.9
(0.4-1.5)
0.4
(0-0.8)
0.4
(0.1 -0.6)
0.9
(0-1.9)
1.1
(0.4-1.8)
1.1
(0.3-1.8)
0.8
(0.3-1.3)
0.084/4***
0.4
(-0.1 -0.9)
0.4
(0.2-0.7)
0.3
(-0.3-0.8)
0.5
(0.2-0.8)
0.2
(0-0.5)
0.2
(0.1 -0.4)
0.5
(0-1)
0.6
(0.2-1)
0.6
(0.2-1)
0.4
(0.2-0.7)
0.074/4
0.3
(-0.1 -0.7)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
0.3
(-0.3-0.9)
0.5
(0.2-0.8)
0.2
(0-0.4)
0.2
(0.1 -0.3)
0.3
(0-0.5)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
0.6
(0.2-0.9)
0.4
(0.2-0.7)
0.064/4
0.3
(-0.1 -0.7)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
0.4
(-0.3-1.1)
0.6
(0.2-1)
0.1
(0-0.3)
0.1
(0-0.2)
0.2
(0-0.4)
0.2
(0.1 -0.4)
0.6
(0.2-1)
0.4
(0.2-0.7)
*AII results are for cardiovascular and respiratory mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. Results are based on single-pollutant single-city models or a
single-pollutant multi-city model estimated in Huang et al. (2004).
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth.
"""These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 - 0.084
ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified
level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
H-8
December 2006
-------
Table H-9. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet
the Current and Two Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on Adjusting 2003 O3
Concentrations*
Risk Assessment Location
Atlanta
Chicago
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Study Location
Atlanta
19 U.S. Cities
Chicago
19 U.S. Cities
Houston
19 U.S. Cities
Los Angeles
19 U.S. Cities
New York
19 U.S. Cities
Percent of Total Incidence of Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet
the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
2003 Air Quality
0.8%
(-0.3% - 1 .8%)
0.8%
(0.3% - 1 .3%)
0.6%
(-0.5% - 1 .7%)
1%
(0.4% - 1 .6%)
0.6%
(-0.1%- 1.3%)
0.6%
(0.2% - 1 %)
1.2%
(0% - 2.4%)
1.4%
(0.5% - 2.3%)
1.1%
(0.3% - 1 .8%)
0.8%
(0.3% - 1 .3%)
0.084/4***
0.6%
(-0.2% - 1 .4%)
0.6%
(0.2% - 1 %)
0.3%
(-0.3% - 0.9%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.8%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.7%
(0% - 1 .3%)
0.8%
(0.3% - 1 .3%)
0.6%
(0.2% - 1 %)
0.4%
(0.2% - 0.7%)
0.074/4
0.4%
(-0.1%- 1%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.7%)
0.3%
(-0.3%- 1%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.6%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.4%
(0.2% - 0.7%)
0.064/4
0.5%
(-0.2%- 1.1%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.4%
(-0.4%- 1.1%)
0.6%
(0.2% - 1 %)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.5%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.6%
(0.2% - 1 %)
0.4%
(0.2% - 0.7%)
*AII results are for cardiovascular and respiratory mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. Results are based on single-pollutant single-city models or a
single-pollutant multi-city model estimated in Huang et al. (2004).
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm,
4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level
(e.g., 0.084 ppm).
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
H-9
December 2006
-------
Table H-10. Estimated Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Two
Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations*
Risk Assessment Location
Atlanta
Chicago
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Study Location
Atlanta
19 U.S. Cities
Chicago
19 U.S. Cities
Houston
19 U.S. Cities
Los Angeles
19 U.S. Cities
New York
19 U.S. Cities
Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative
O3 Standards**
2004 Air Quality
8
(-3-18)
8
(3-13)
23
(-21 - 66)
38
(14-61)
16
(0 - 32)
14
(5 - 22)
15
(-2-31)
14
(5 - 22)
12
(-2 - 26)
13
(5 - 20)
0.084/4***
6
(-2-14)
6
(2-10)
16
(-14-45)
26
(10-41)
8
(-1 -16)
8
(3-13)
50
(0 - 98)
57
(22 - 93)
53
(1 7 - 89)
39
(1 5 - 63)
0.074/4
5
(-1-10)
5
(2-8)
11
(-10-31)
18
(7 - 29)
6
(-1-12)
6
(2-9)
33
(0 - 65)
38
(1 5 - 62)
41
(1 3 - 68)
30
(1 1 - 48)
0.064/4
3
(-1 - 7)
3
(1 -5)
7
(-6-19)
11
(4-18)
3
(0-6)
3
(1 -5)
15
(0 - 30)
17
(7 - 28)
29
(9 - 49)
21
(8 - 34)
*AII results are for cardiovascular and respiratory mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. Results are based on single-pollutant single-city models or a
single-pollutant multi-city model estimated in Huang et al. (2004).
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm,
4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level
(e.g., 0.084 ppm).
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
H-10
December 2006
-------
Table H-11. Estimated Cardiorespiratory Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that
Just Meet the Current and Two Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on
Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations*
Risk Assessment Location
Atlanta
Chicago
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Study Location
Atlanta
19 U.S. Cities
Chicago
19 U.S. Cities
Houston
19 U.S. Cities
Los Angeles
19 U.S. Cities
New York
19 U.S. Cities
Cardiorespiratory Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just
Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
2004 Air Quality
0.5
(-0.2 - 1 .2)
0.5
(0.2-0.9)
0.4
(-0.4 - 1 .2)
0.7
(0.3-1.1)
1.2
(0 - 2.3)
1
(0.4 - 1 .6)
0.7
(-0.1 - 1.5)
0.7
(0.3-1.1)
0.4
(0 - 0.8)
0.4
(0.1 -0.6)
0.084/4***
0.4
(-0.1 - 0.9)
0.4
(0.2-0.7)
0.3
(-0.3 - 0.8)
0.5
(0.2-0.8)
0.2
(0 - 0.5)
0.2
(0.1 -0.4)
0.5
(0-1)
0.6
(0.2-1)
0.6
(0.2-1)
0.4
(0.2-0.7)
0.074/4
0.3
(-0.1 - 0.7)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
0.2
(-0.2 - 0.6)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
0.2
(0.1 -0.3)
0.3
(0 - 0.7)
0.4
(0.2-0.6)
0.5
(0.1 -0.8)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
0.064/4
0.2
(-0.1 - 0.5)
0.2
(0.1 -0.4)
0.1
(-0.1 - 0.4)
0.2
(0.1 -0.3)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.1
(0-0.1)
0.2
(0 - 0.3)
0.2
(0.1 -0.3)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
0.2
(0.1 -0.4)
*AII results are for cardiovascular and respiratory mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. Results are based on single-pollutant single-city models or a
single-pollutant multi-city model estimated in Huang et al. (2004).
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 - 0.084 ppm,
4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level
(e.g., 0.084 ppm).
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
H-11
December 2006
-------
Table H-12. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet
the Current and Two Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3
Concentrations*
Risk Assessment Location
Atlanta
Chicago
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Study Location
Atlanta
19 U.S. Cities
Chicago
19 U.S. Cities
Houston
19 U.S. Cities
Los Angeles
19 U.S. Cities
New York
19 U.S. Cities
Percent of Total Incidence of Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet
the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**
2004 Air Quality
0.8%
(-0.3% - 1 .8%)
0.8%
(0.3% - 1 .3%)
0.4%
(-0.4% - 1 .3%)
0.7%
(0.3% - 1 .2%)
0.9%
(0% - 1 .7%)
0.7%
(0.3% - 1 .2%)
0.6%
(-0.1%- 1.3%)
0.6%
(0.2% - 0.9%)
0.6%
(-0.1%- 1.2%)
0.6%
(0.2% - 1 %)
0.084/4***
0.6%
(-0.2% - 1 .4%)
0.6%
(0.2% - 1 %)
0.3%
(-0.3% - 0.9%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.8%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.7%
(0% - 1 .3%)
0.8%
(0.3% - 1 .3%)
0.6%
(0.2% - 1 %)
0.4%
(0.2% - 0.7%)
0.074/4
0.5%
(-0.2%- 1.1%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.2%
(-0.2% - 0.6%)
0.4%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.3%
(0% - 0.6%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.4%
(0% - 0.9%)
0.5%
(0.2% - 0.8%)
0.5%
(0.1% -0.8%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.064/4
0.3%
(-0.1% -0.8%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.6%)
0.1%
(-0.1% -0.4%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.3%)
0.1%
(0% - 0.3%)
0.1%
(0.1% -0.2%)
0.2%
(0% - 0.4%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
0.3%
(0.1% -0.5%)
0.2%
(0.1% -0.4%)
*AII results are for cardiovascular and respiratory mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. Results are based on single-pollutant single-city models or a
single-pollutant multi-city model estimated in Huang et al. (2004).
"Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 — 0.084 ppm,
4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level
(e.g., 0.084 ppm).
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
H-12
December 2006
-------
Appendix I: Additional PRB Sensitivity Analyses
-------
Table 1-1. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated
Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: April - September, 2004*
Location
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St Louis
Washington
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Ito (2003)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Moolgavkar et al. (1995)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
1-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Above:**
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations
6
(-26 - 38)
12
(4 - 20)
7
(2-12)
49
(16-81)
394
(125-658)
148
(46 - 250)
27
(-17-69)
17
(6 - 28)
33
(-11-76)
17
(6 - 28)
128
(-21 -274)
70
(22 - 1 1 7)
40
(-37-116)
35
(2 - 67)
17
(6-28)
93
(9-176)
78
(24-130)
62
(-149-271)
133
(45-221)
60
(20-100)
23
(8-38)
82
(52-112)
12
(-36 - 59)
18
(6 - 29)
3
(-6-13)
3
(1-5)
8
(3-14)
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations Minus
5 ppb***
14
(-61 - 87)
28
(9 - 46)
11
(4-19)
85
(28-141)
493
(157-822)
186
(58-313)
45
(-29-118)
29
(10-48)
61
(-20-140)
31
(10-52)
159
(-26 - 339)
86
(27-145)
74
(-68-213)
54
(3-104)
27
(9 - 44)
110
(10-208)
92
(29-154)
85
(-206 - 372)
183
(62 - 304)
105
(35-174)
36
(12-60)
129
(81 -176)
17
(-52 - 85)
25
(9 - 42)
7
(-11-24)
6
(2-10)
13
(4-21)
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations Plus 5
ppb
3
(-14-20)
7
(2-11)
4
(1-7)
21
(7 - 36)
298
(94 - 498)
112
(35-189)
14
(-9-37)
9
(3-15)
16
(-5-36)
8
(3-13)
99
(-16-211)
54
(17-90)
19
(-18-55)
19
(1 - 37)
10
(3-16)
78
(7-148)
65
(20-109)
40
(-97-177)
87
(29-145)
30
(10-50)
12
(4-21)
45
(28-61)
7
(-22 - 36)
11
(4-18)
1
(-2-5)
1
(0-2)
5
(2-8)
"All results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.
**lncidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***ln Atlanta, 10 ppb were subtracted from estimated PRB concentrations; in all other locations, 5 ppb were subtracted.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
1-1
December 2006
-------
Table 1-2. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated
Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: April - September, 2002*
Location
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St Louis
Washington
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Ito (2003)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Moolgavkaretal. (1995)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
1 -day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Above:**
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations
9
(-37 - 54)
17
(6 - 29)
10
(3-17)
69
(23- 115)
505
(161 -840)
191
(60 - 321)
61
(-38-157)
38
(13-64)
57
(-18-131)
29
(10-48)
181
(-30 - 385)
99
(31 - 165)
69
(-64- 198)
29
(2 - 57)
14
(5 - 24)
85
(8- 161)
71
(22- 119)
51
(-124-224)
110
(37- 184)
105
(35-174)
37
(12-62)
132
(83-180)
16
(-48 - 78)
23
(8 - 39)
6
(-1 1 - 23)
6
(2-10)
15
(5 - 25)
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations Minus
5 ppb***
17
(-72-103)
33
(1 1 - 55)
15
(5 - 25)
104
(35- 173)
605
(193-1005)
229
(72 - 384)
81
(-51 -210)
52
(17-86)
86
(-28-197)
44
(15-73)
212
(-35 - 451)
116
(36- 194)
105
(-98 - 300)
48
(3 - 93)
24
(8 - 39)
103
(9- 194)
86
(27- 144)
73
(-178-322)
158
(53 - 263)
156
(52 - 258)
51
(17-85)
181
(114-247)
21
(-63-102)
31
(10-51)
10
(-17-36)
9
(3-15)
20
(7 - 33)
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations Plus 5
ppb
6
(-25 - 35)
11
(4-19)
7
(2-12)
42
(14-70)
410
(130-683)
155
(49 - 260)
43
(-27-112)
27
(9 - 46)
36
(-1 1 - 82)
18
(6 - 30)
150
(-25 - 320)
82
(26- 138)
43
(-40- 125)
17
(1 - 32)
8
(3-14)
69
(6-132)
58
(18-97)
31
(-76- 138)
68
(23- 113)
69
(23-115)
26
(9 - 43)
91
(57-124)
11
(-35 - 56)
17
(6 - 28)
4
(-6-14)
3
(1-6)
11
(4-18)
*AII results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.
"Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***ln Atlanta, 10 ppb were subtracted from estimated PRB concentrations; in all other locations, 5 ppb were subtracted.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
1-2
December 2006
-------
Table 1-3. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated
Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with "As Is" O3
Concentrations: April -September, 2004*
Location
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St Louis
Washington
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Ito (2003)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Moolgavkar et al. (1995)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
1-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population
Associated with O3 Above:**
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations
0.4
(-1.8-2.6)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .4)
1.0
(0.3 - 1 .7)
0.9
(0.3 - 1 .5)
7.3
(2.3-12.2)
2.8
(0.9-4.6)
1.9
(-1.2-5)
1.2
(0.4-2)
1.6
(-0.5-3.7)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .4)
6.2
(-1-13.3)
3.4
(1.1-5.7)
2.0
(-1 .8 - 5.6)
1.0
(0.1-2)
0.5
(0.2-0.8)
2.7
(0.3-5.2)
2.3
(0.7-3.8)
0.6
(-1.6-2.8)
1.4
(0.5-2.3)
0.7
(0.2-1.1)
1.5
(0.5-2.5)
5.4
(3.4 - 7.4)
1.0
(-3-4.8)
1.4
(0.5-2.4)
1.0
(-1.7-3.6)
0.9
(0.3 - 1 .5)
1.5
(0.5-2.4)
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations Minus
5 ppb***
0.9
(-4.1 - 5.9)
1.9
(0.6-3.1)
1.6
(0.5-2.7)
1.6
(0.5-2.6)
9.2
(2.9-15.3)
3.5
(1.1-5.8)
3.3
(-2.1 - 8.5)
2.1
(0.7 - 3.4)
2.9
(-0.9 - 6.8)
1.5
(0.5-2.5)
7.7
(-1.3-16.5)
4.2
(1.3-7)
3.6
(-3.3-10.3)
1.6
(0.1 -3.1)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .3)
3.2
(0.3-6.1)
2.7
(0.8 - 4.5)
0.9
(-2.2 - 3.9)
1.9
(0.6 - 3.2)
1.2
(0.4 - 1 .9)
2.4
(0.8-4)
8.5
(5.3 - 1 1 .6)
1.4
(-4.3 - 6.9)
2.1
(0.7 - 3.4)
1.9
(-3.2 - 6.9)
1.7
(0.6-2.8)
2.2
(0.7 - 3.7)
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations Plus 5
ppb
0.2
(-1-1.4)
0.4
(0.1 -0.7)
0.6
(0.2-1)
0.4
(0.1 -0.7)
5.5
(1.8-9.3)
2.1
(0.7-3.5)
1.0
(-0.6-2.7)
0.6
(0.2-1.1)
0.8
(-0.2 - 1 .8)
0.4
(0.1 -0.6)
4.8
(-0.8-10.2)
2.6
(0.8-4.4)
0.9
(-0.9-2.7)
0.6
(0-1.1)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
2.3
(0.2-4.3)
1.9
(0.6-3.2)
0.4
(-1-1.9)
0.9
(0.3 - 1 .5)
0.3
(0.1 -0.6)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .4)
2.9
(1.8-4)
0.6
(-1.8-3)
0.9
(0.3-1.5)
0.4
(-0.6 - 1 .3)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .4)
*AII results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.
"Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***ln Atlanta, 10 ppb were subtracted from estimated PRB concentrations; in all other locations, 5 ppb were subtracted.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
1-3
December 2006
-------
Table 1-4. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated
Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with "As Is" O3
Concentrations: April - September, 2002*
Location
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St Louis
Washington
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Ito (2003)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Moolgavkaretal. (1995)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
1-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population
Associated with O3 Above:**
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations
0.6
(-2.5 - 3.6)
1.2
(0.4 - 1 .9)
1.5
(0.5 - 2.5)
1.3
(0.4-2.1)
9.4
(3-15.6)
3.6
(1.1-6)
4.3
(-2.7- 11.3)
2.8
(0.9 - 4.6)
2.8
(-0.9 - 6.3)
1.4
(0.5 - 2.3)
8.8
(-1.4- 18.7)
4.8
(1.5-8)
3.4
(-3.1 -9.6)
0.9
(0.1-1.7)
0.4
(0.1 -0.7)
2.5
(0.2 - 4.7)
2.1
(0.7 - 3.5)
0.5
(-1.3-2.4)
1.2
(0.4 - 1 .9)
1.2
(0.4 - 2)
2.4
(0.8-4.1)
8.7
(5.5 - 1 1 .9)
1.3
(-3.9 - 6.4)
1.9
(0.6 - 3.2)
1.9
(-3.1 -6.7)
1.7
(0.6 - 2.8)
2.6
(0.9 - 4.4)
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations Minus
5 ppb***
1.1
(-4.9 - 6.9)
2.2
(0.7 - 3.7)
2.2
(0.7 - 3.6)
1.9
(0.7 - 3.2)
11.2
(3.6- 18.7)
4.3
(1.3-7.2)
5.8
(-3.7- 15.1)
3.7
(1.2-6.2)
4.2
(-1.4-9.6)
2.1
(0.7 - 3.5)
10.3
(-1 .7 - 21 .9)
5.6
(1.8-9.4)
5.1
(-4.7-14.6)
1.4
(0.1 -2.7)
0.7
(0.2 - 1 .2)
3.0
(0.3 - 5.7)
2.5
(0.8 - 4.2)
0.8
(-1.9-3.4)
1.7
(0.6 - 2.8)
1.7
(0.6 - 2.9)
3.4
(1.1-5.6)
11.9
(7.5- 16.2)
1.7
(-5.2 - 8.4)
2.5
(0.8 - 4.2)
2.8
(-4.8- 10.3)
2.5
(0.8 - 4.2)
3.5
(1.2-5.8)
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations Plus 5
ppb
0.4
(-1.7-2.4)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .3)
1.0
(0.3 - 1 .7)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .3)
7.6
(2.4- 12.7)
2.9
(0.9 - 4.8)
3.1
(-2 - 8)
2.0
(0.7 - 3.3)
1.7
(-0.6 - 4)
0.9
(0.3 - 1 .5)
7.3
(-1.2- 15.5)
4.0
(1.2-6.7)
2.1
(-2 - 6)
0.5
(0 - 0.9)
0.2
(0.1 -0.4)
2.0
(0.2 - 3.9)
1.7
(0.5 - 2.9)
0.3
(-0.8 - 1 .5)
0.7
(0.2 - 1 .2)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .3)
1.7
(0.6 - 2.8)
6.0
(3.8 - 8.2)
0.9
(-2.8 - 4.6)
1.4
(0.5 - 2.3)
1.1
(-1.8-3.9)
1.0
(0.3 - 1 .6)
1.9
(0.6 - 3.2)
*AII results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.
"Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***ln Atlanta, 10 ppb were subtracted from estimated PRB concentrations; in all other locations, 5 ppb were subtracted.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
1-4
December 2006
-------
Table 1-5. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated
Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current
Standard (0.084 ppm, 4th Daily Maximum): April - September, 2004*
Location
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St Louis
Washington
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Ito (2003)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Moolgavkar et al. (1995)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
1-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Above:**
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations
5
(-20 - 29)
9
(3-15)
6
(2-9)
30
(10-50)
310
(98-519)
117
(37-197)
20
(-12-51)
12
(4-21)
23
(-8-54)
12
(4 - 20)
105
(-17-226)
57
(18-96)
29
(-26 - 83)
22
(1 - 42)
11
(4-18)
70
(6-133)
58
(18-98)
32
(-77-141)
69
(23-115)
43
(15-72)
17
(6-28)
61
(38 - 83)
8
(-25-41)
12
(4-20)
3
(-4 - 9)
2
(1-4)
7
(2-12)
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations Minus
5 ppb***
12
(-53 - 76)
24
(8-40)
10
(3-16)
67
(23-112)
412
(131 -689)
155
(49 - 262)
36
(-22 - 93)
23
(8-38)
49
(-16-113)
25
(8 - 42)
138
(-22 - 294)
75
(23-126)
60
(-55-172)
39
(2 - 75)
19
(6-32)
86
(8-163)
72
(23-121)
52
(-126-228)
112
(38-187)
76
(25-126)
29
(10-48)
103
(64-140)
13
(-40 - 65)
20
(7-32)
5
(-9 - 20)
5
(2-8)
10
(3-17)
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations Plus 5
ppb
2
(-9-14)
4
(1-7)
3
(1-5)
12
(4-19)
220
(70 - 368)
83
(26-139)
9
(-5-23)
6
(2-9)
10
(-3-23)
5
(2-8)
78
(-13-167)
42
(13-71)
12
(-1 1 - 35)
9
(1-18)
5
(2-8)
56
(5-106)
47
(15-79)
13
(-31 - 57)
28
(9 - 46)
15
(5-24)
7
(2-12)
26
(17-36)
4
(-13-21)
6
(2-11)
1
(-1-3)
1
(0-1)
3
(1-5)
"All results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.
"Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***ln Atlanta, 10 ppb were subtracted from estimated PRB concentrations; in all other locations, 5 ppb were subtracted.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
1-5
December 2006
-------
Table 1-6. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated
Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current
Standard (0.084 ppm, 4th Daily Maximum): April - September, 2002*
Location
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St Louis
Washington
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Ito (2003)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Moolgavkaretal. (1995)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
1-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Above:**
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations
7
(-30 - 43)
14
(5 - 23)
9
(3-15)
55
(18-91)
427
(136-712)
161
(51 - 271)
49
(-31 - 128)
31
(10-52)
46
(-15- 106)
24
(8 - 39)
158
(-26 - 336)
86
(27-144)
56
(-52-162)
18
(1 - 34)
9
(3-15)
63
(6-119)
53
(16-88)
24
(-58-105)
52
(17-86)
84
(28- 139)
30
(10-50)
107
(67- 146)
12
(-37 - 60)
18
(6 - 30)
5
(-9 - 20)
5
(2-8)
14
(5 - 23)
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations Minus
5 ppb***
15
(-63 - 90)
29
(10-48)
13
(4-21)
88
(29-146)
526
(167-876)
199
(62 - 334)
69
(.44. 180)
44
(15-73)
73
(-24- 169)
38
(13-62)
189
(-31 - 403)
103
(32-173)
89
(-83 - 256)
34
(2 - 65)
17
(6 - 28)
80
(7-151)
66
(21 - 112)
44
(-106-192)
95
(32-157)
121
(41 - 202)
43
(14-71)
152
(96 - 208)
17
(-51 - 83)
25
(8-41)
9
(-15-31)
8
(3-13)
17
(6 - 28)
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations Plus 5
ppb
4
(-18-26)
8
(3-14)
6
(2-9)
31
(10-51)
333
(106-556)
126
(39-212)
33
(-21 - 87)
21
(7 - 35)
27
(-9 - 63)
14
(5 - 23)
128
(-21 - 273)
70
(22-117)
33
(-31 - 95)
8
(1 - 16)
4
(1-7)
48
(4 - 92)
40
(13-68)
9
(-22 - 41)
20
(7 - 33)
45
(15-74)
19
(6 - 32)
68
(43 - 94)
8
(-24 - 40)
12
(4 - 20)
3
(-5-11)
3
(1-4)
9
(3-14)
*AII results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.
"Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***ln Atlanta, 10 ppb were subtracted from estimated PRB concentrations; in all other locations, 5 ppb were subtracted.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
1-6
December 2006
-------
Table 1-7. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated
Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet An Alternative
Standard of 0.074 ppm, 4th Daily Maximum: April -September, 2004*
Location
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St Louis
Washington
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Ito (2003)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Moolgavkar et al. (1995)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
1-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Above:**
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations
4
(-15-22)
7
(2-12)
4
(1-7)
23
(8 - 39)
249
(79 - 41 7)
93
(29-157)
14
(-9-37)
9
(3-15)
17
(-6-40)
9
(3-15)
87
(-14-186)
47
(15-79)
21
(-20 - 62)
16
(1 - 30)
8
(3-13)
57
(5-109)
48
(15-81)
20
(-49 - 90)
44
(15-74)
33
(11-55)
13
(4-21)
46
(29 - 63)
7
(-21 -34)
10
(3-17)
2
(-3-6)
1
(0-2)
6
(2-9)
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations Minus
5 ppb***
11
(-47 - 68)
22
(7-36)
8
(3-14)
55
(19-92)
347
(110-580)
131
(41 - 220)
30
(-19-78)
19
(6-32)
40
(-13-93)
21
(7 - 34)
117
(-19-251)
64
(20-107)
49
(-45-142)
32
(2 - 62)
16
(5-26)
73
(7-139)
61
(19-103)
41
(-98-179)
88
(29-146)
64
(21 -106)
25
(8-41)
88
(55-120)
11
(-35 - 57)
17
(6-28)
4
(-7-16)
4
(1-6)
9
(3-14)
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations Plus 5
ppb
1
(-6-9)
3
(1-5)
2
(1-3)
6
(2-10)
157
(50 - 263)
59
(18-99)
6
(-3-14)
3
(1-6)
6
(-2-13)
3
(1-5)
59
(-9-126)
32
(10-54)
7
(-6 - 20)
6
(0-11)
3
(1-5)
44
(4 - 84)
37
(12-62)
6
(-15-27)
13
(4 - 22)
9
(3-15)
5
(2-8)
17
(11-24)
3
(-9-16)
5
(2-8)
0
(-1 - 1)
0
(0-0)
2
(1-3)
"All results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.
"Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***ln Atlanta, 10 ppb were subtracted from estimated PRB concentrations; in all other locations, 5 ppb were subtracted.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
1-7
December 2006
-------
Table 1-8. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated
Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet An Alternative
Standard of 0.074 ppm, 4th Daily Maximum: April - September, 2002*
Location
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St Louis
Washington
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Ito (2003)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Moolgavkaretal. (1995)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
1-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Above:**
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations
6
(-24 - 35)
11
(4-19)
7
(3-12)
44
(15-74)
361
(115-603)
136
(43 - 229)
42
(-26- 109)
27
(9 - 44)
38
(-12-87)
19
(6 - 32)
134
(-22 - 287)
73
(23-123)
46
(-42-132)
13
(1 - 25)
6
(2-10)
51
(5 - 97)
43
(13-72)
15
(-35 - 64)
32
(1 1 - 53)
70
(23- 116)
26
(9 - 42)
91
(57- 124)
10
(-32 - 52)
15
(5 - 26)
4
(-7-15)
4
(1-6)
12
(4-19)
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations Minus
5 ppb***
13
(-57 - 81)
26
(9 - 43)
12
(4-19)
76
(26-127)
460
(146-767)
174
(54 - 292)
62
(-39- 160)
39
(13-65)
64
(-21 - 146)
33
(1 1 - 54)
166
(-27 - 354)
90
(28-152)
77
(-72 - 223)
27
(2 - 53)
13
(4 - 22)
67
(6- 128)
56
(18-95)
33
(-80-145)
71
(24-118)
107
(36- 177)
38
(13-63)
136
(85- 185)
15
(-46 - 74)
22
(7 - 37)
7
(-12-27)
7
(2-11)
15
(5 - 25)
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations Plus 5
ppb
3
(-13-19)
6
(2-10)
5
(2-8)
22
(7 - 37)
269
(85 - 450)
102
(32- 171)
27
(-17-71)
17
(6 - 29)
20
(-7 - 47)
10
(3-17)
105
(-17-224)
57
(18-96)
25
(-23 - 72)
5
(0-10)
2
(1-4)
37
(3-71)
31
(10-52)
4
(-10-18)
9
(3-15)
34
(12-57)
16
(5 - 26)
55
(35 - 76)
7
(-20 - 33)
10
(3-16)
2
(-4 - 8)
2
(1-3)
7
(2-12)
*AII results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.
"Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***ln Atlanta, 10 ppb were subtracted from estimated PRB concentrations; in all other locations, 5 ppb were subtracted.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
1-8
December 2006
-------
Table 1-9. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated
Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet An Alternative
Standard of 0.064 ppm, 4th Daily Maximum: April -September, 2004*
Location
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St Louis
Washington
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Ito (2003)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Moolgavkar et al. (1995)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
1-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Above:**
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations
3
(-11-16)
5
(2-8)
3
(1-6)
14
(5 - 24)
183
(58 - 307)
69
(21 -116)
10
(-6-26)
6
(2-11)
11
(-4-27)
6
(2-10)
66
(-11 -142)
36
(11-61)
14
(-13-41)
8
(0-15)
4
(1-6)
42
(4 - 80)
35
(11-59)
9
(-22-41)
20
(7 - 33)
24
(8-39)
9
(3-15)
33
(21-46)
5
(-16-26)
8
(3-13)
1
(-1 - 3)
1
(0-1)
4
(1-7)
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations Minus
5 ppb***
10
(-41 - 59)
19
(6-31)
7
(2-11)
43
(14-72)
281
(89 - 470)
105
(33-178)
24
(-15-63)
15
(5-26)
32
(-10-73)
16
(5 - 27)
97
(-16-207)
52
(16-88)
38
(-35-111)
21
(1-41)
10
(3-17)
56
(5-106)
47
(15-79)
27
(-64-117)
57
(19-96)
51
(17-84)
20
(7-34)
73
(46-100)
10
(-29 - 48)
14
(5-24)
3
(-5-11)
3
(1-5)
7
(2-12)
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations Plus 5
ppb
1
(-4-5)
2
(1-3)
1
(0-2)
2
(1-4)
98
(31 -164)
37
(1 1 - 62)
3
(-2-8)
2
(1-3)
2
(-1-5)
1
(0-2)
40
(-6-85)
21
(7 - 36)
3
(-3 - 8)
2
(0-3)
1
(0-1)
30
(3 - 56)
25
(8 - 42)
1
(-3 - 6)
3
(1-5)
4
(1-7)
3
(1-4)
10
(6-13)
2
(-6-10)
3
(1-5)
0
(0-0)
0
(0-0)
1
(0-2)
"All results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.
"Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***ln Atlanta, 10 ppb were subtracted from estimated PRB concentrations; in all other locations, 5 ppb were subtracted.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
1-9
December 2006
-------
Table 1-10. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated
Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet An Alternative
Standard of 0.064 ppm, 4th Daily Maximum: April - September, 2002*
Location
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St Louis
Washington
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Ito (2003)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Moolgavkaretal. (1995)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
1-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Above:**
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations
4
(-19-27)
9
(3-14)
6
(2-10)
34
(11-57)
294
(93 - 493)
111
(35- 187)
35
(-22 - 91)
22
(7 - 37)
29
(-9 - 67)
15
(5 - 25)
111
(-18-239)
61
(19-102)
36
(-33-103)
7
(0-13)
3
(1-5)
36
(3 - 69)
30
(9-51)
7
(-16-29)
14
(5 - 23)
57
(19-95)
21
(7 - 35)
75
(47- 103)
9
(-27 - 44)
13
(4 - 22)
3
(-5-12)
3
(1-5)
10
(3-16)
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations Minus
5 ppb***
12
(-50 - 72)
23
(8 - 38)
10
(3-17)
65
(22-108)
393
(125-656)
148
(46 - 249)
54
(.34. 141)
34
(12-57)
54
(-17- 124)
28
(9 - 46)
143
(-23 - 305)
78
(24-130)
66
(-61 - 189)
17
(1 - 34)
9
(3-14)
51
(5 - 97)
43
(13-72)
21
(-50 - 91)
45
(15-74)
87
(29- 145)
33
(11-56)
119
(75- 163)
13
(-40 - 66)
20
(7 - 33)
6
(-10-22)
5
(2-9)
13
(5 - 22)
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations Plus 5
ppb
2
(-9-13)
4
(1-7)
3
(1-6)
15
(5 - 25)
206
(65 - 345)
77
(24- 130)
21
(-13-55)
13
(4 - 22)
14
(-4 - 32)
7
(2-12)
83
(-13- 177)
45
(14-75)
17
(-16-49)
2
(0-4)
1
(0-2)
24
(2 - 46)
20
(6 - 34)
1
(-2 - 4)
2
(1-3)
23
(8 - 38)
12
(4 - 20)
43
(27 - 59)
5
(-16-26)
8
(3-13)
1
(-2 - 5)
1
(0-2)
6
(2-9)
*AII results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.
"Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***ln Atlanta, 10 ppb were subtracted from estimated PRB concentrations; in all other locations, 5 ppb were subtracted.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
I-10
December 2006
-------
Table 1-11. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated
Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations
that Just Meet the Current Standard (0.084 ppm, 4th Daily Maximum): April - September, 2004*
Location
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St Louis
Washington
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Ito (2003)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Moolgavkar et al. (1995)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
1-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population
Associated with O3 Above:**
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations
0.3
(-1 .3 - 1 .9)
0.6
(0.2-1)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .4)
0.6
(0.2-0.9)
5.8
(1.8-9.7)
2.2
(0.7-3.7)
1.4
(-0.9 - 3.7)
0.9
(0.3 - 1 .5)
1.1
(-0.4-2.6)
0.6
(0.2-1)
5.1
(-0.8-10.9)
2.8
(0.9-4.7)
1.4
(-1.3-4)
0.6
(0-1.2)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
2.1
(0.2-3.9)
1.7
(0.5-2.9)
0.3
(-0.8 - 1 .5)
0.7
(0.2 - 1 .2)
0.5
(0.2-0.8)
1.1
(0.4 - 1 .9)
4.0
(2.5-5.5)
0.7
(-2.1 -3.4)
1.0
(0.3 - 1 .7)
0.7
(-1.2-2.7)
0.7
(0.2-1.1)
1.2
(0.4-2.1)
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations Minus
5 ppb***
0.8
(-3.5 - 5.1)
1.6
(0.5-2.7)
1.4
(0.5-2.3)
1.3
(0.4-2.1)
7.7
(2.4-12.8)
2.9
(0.9 - 4.9)
2.6
(-1 .6 - 6.7)
1.6
(0.5-2.7)
2.4
(-0.8 - 5.5)
1.2
(0.4 - 2)
6.7
(-1.1 -14.3)
3.6
(1.1-6.1)
2.9
(-2.7 - 8.4)
1.1
(0.1 -2.2)
0.6
(0.2 - 0.9)
2.5
(0.2 - 4.8)
2.1
(0.7 - 3.6)
0.5
(-1.3-2.4)
1.2
(0.4 - 2)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .4)
1.9
(0.6 - 3.2)
6.8
(4.2 - 9.2)
1.1
(-3.3 - 5.4)
1.6
(0.5-2.7)
1.6
(-2.6 - 5.7)
1.4
(0.5-2.3)
1.8
(0.6 - 3)
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations Plus 5
ppb
0.1
(-0.6 - 0.9)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
0.4
(0.1 -0.7)
0.2
(0.1 -0.4)
4.1
(1.3-6.8)
1.5
(0.5-2.6)
0.6
(-0.4 - 1 .6)
0.4
(0.1 -0.7)
0.5
(-0.2-1.1)
0.2
(0.1 -0.4)
3.8
(-0.6-8.1)
2.1
(0.6-3.5)
0.6
(-0.5 - 1 .7)
0.3
(0 - 0.5)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
1.6
(0.2-3.1)
1.4
(0.4-2.3)
0.1
(-0.3 - 0.6)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
0.2
(0.1 -0.3)
0.5
(0.2-0.8)
1.7
(1.1-2.4)
0.4
(-1.1-1.8)
0.5
(0.2-0.9)
0.2
(-0.3 - 0.8)
0.2
(0.1 -0.3)
0.5
(0.2-0.9)
*AII results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.
"Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***ln Atlanta, 10 ppb were subtracted from estimated PRB concentrations; in all other locations, 5 ppb were subtracted.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
1-11
December 2006
-------
Table 1-12. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated
Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations
that Just Meet the Current Standard (0.084 ppm, 4th Daily Maximum): April - September, 2002*
Location
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St Louis
Washington
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Ito (2003)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Moolgavkaretal. (1995)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
1-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population
Associated with O3 Above:**
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations
0.5
(-2 - 2.9)
0.9
(0.3 - 1 .6)
1.3
(0.4-2.1)
1.0
(0.3 - 1 .7)
7.9
(2.5- 13.2)
3.0
(0.9 - 5)
3.5
(-2.2 - 9.2)
2.2
(0.8 - 3.7)
2.2
(-0.7 - 5.2)
1.1
(0.4 - 1 .9)
7.7
(-1.3- 16.3)
4.2
(1.3-7)
2.7
(-2.5 - 7.8)
0.5
(0-1)
0.3
(0.1 -0.4)
1.8
(0.2 - 3.5)
1.5
(0.5 - 2.6)
0.3
(-0.6-1.1)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.9)
0.9
(0.3 - 1 .6)
2.0
(0.7 - 3.3)
7.0
(4.4 - 9.6)
1.0
(-3 - 4.9)
1.5
(0.5 - 2.4)
1.6
(-2.6 - 5.6)
1.4
(0.5 - 2.3)
2.4
(0.8 - 3.9)
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations Minus
5 ppb***
1.0
(-4.3-6.1)
1.9
(0.7 - 3.2)
1.9
(0.6-3.1)
1.6
(0.5 - 2.7)
9.8
(3.1 - 16.3)
3.7
(1.2-6.2)
5.0
(-3.1 - 12.9)
3.2
(1.1-5.2)
3.6
(-1.2-8.2)
1.8
(0.6 - 3)
9.2
(-1.5- 19.5)
5.0
(1.6-8.4)
4.3
(-4-12.4)
1.0
(0.1 -1.9)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.8)
2.3
(0.2 - 4.4)
2.0
(0.6 - 3.3)
0.5
(-1.1-2)
1.0
(0.3 - 1 .7)
1.4
(0.5 - 2.3)
2.8
(0.9 - 4.7)
10.0
(6.3- 13.7)
1.4
(-4.2 - 6.8)
2.0
(0.7 - 3.4)
2.5
(-4.2 - 9)
2.2
(0.7 - 3.7)
3.0
(1 - 4.9)
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations Plus 5
ppb
0.3
(-1 .2 - 1 .8)
0.6
(0.2 - 0.9)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .4)
0.6
(0.2 - 0.9)
6.2
(2-10.4)
2.3
(0.7 - 3.9)
2.4
(-1.5-6.2)
1.5
(0.5 - 2.5)
1.3
(-0.4 - 3)
0.7
(0.2-1.1)
6.2
(-1 -13.2)
3.4
(1.1-5.7)
1.6
(-1.5-4.6)
0.2
(0 - 0.5)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
1.4
(0.1 -2.7)
1.2
(0.4 - 2)
0.1
(-0.2 - 0.4)
0.2
(0.1 -0.3)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.8)
1.3
(0.4-2.1)
4.5
(2.8 - 6.2)
0.7
(-2 - 3.3)
1.0
(0.3 - 1 .6)
0.9
(-1.4-3.1)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .3)
1.5
(0.5 - 2.5)
*AII results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.
"Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***ln Atlanta, 10 ppb were subtracted from estimated PRB concentrations; in all other locations, 5 ppb were subtracted.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
1-12
December 2006
-------
Table 1-13. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated
Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations
that Just Meet An Alternative Standard of 0.074 ppm, 4th Daily Maximum : April - September, 2004*
Location
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St Louis
Washington
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Ito (2003)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Moolgavkar et al. (1995)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
1-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population
Associated with O3 Above:**
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations
0.2
(-1-1.5)
0.5
(0.2-0.8)
0.6
(0.2-1.1)
0.4
(0.1 -0.7)
4.6
(1.5-7.7)
1.7
(0.5-2.9)
1.0
(-0.6-2.7)
0.6
(0.2-1.1)
0.8
(-0.3-2)
0.4
(0.1 -0.7)
4.2
(-0.7-9)
2.3
(0.7-3.8)
1.0
(-1 - 3)
0.5
(0 - 0.9)
0.2
(0.1 -0.4)
1.7
(0.2-3.2)
1.4
(0.4-2.4)
0.2
(-0.5 - 0.9)
0.5
(0.2-0.8)
0.4
(0.1 -0.6)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .4)
3.0
(1.9-4.2)
0.6
(-1.7-2.8)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .4)
0.5
(-0.8 - 1 .7)
0.4
(0.1 -0.7)
1.0
(0.3 - 1 .6)
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations Minus
5 ppb***
0.7
(-3.2 - 4.6)
1.5
(0.5-2.4)
1.2
(0.4 - 2)
1.0
(0.3 - 1 .7)
6.5
(2-10.8)
2.4
(0.8-4.1)
2.1
(-1.3-5.6)
1.4
(0.5-2.3)
2.0
(-0.6 - 4.5)
1.0
(0.3 - 1 .7)
5.7
(-0.9-12.2)
3.1
(1 - 5.2)
2.4
(-2.2 - 6.9)
0.9
(0.1 -1.8)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.8)
2.2
(0.2-4.1)
1.8
(0.6 - 3)
0.4
(-1 - 1 .9)
0.9
(0.3 - 1 .5)
0.7
(0.2 - 1 .2)
1.6
(0.5-2.7)
5.8
(3.6 - 7.9)
0.9
(-2.8 - 4.6)
1.4
(0.5-2.3)
1.2
(-2.1 - 4.5)
1.1
(0.4 - 1 .8)
1.5
(0.5-2.5)
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations Plus 5
ppb
0.1
(-0.4 - 0.6)
0.2
(0.1 -0.3)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
2.9
(0.9-4.9)
1.1
(0.3 - 1 .8)
0.4
(-0.2 - 1)
0.3
(0.1 -0.4)
0.3
(-0.1 -0.6)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
2.8
(-0.5-6.1)
1.5
(0.5-2.6)
0.3
(-0.3 - 1)
0.2
(0 - 0.3)
0.1
(0-0.1)
1.3
(0.1 -2.5)
1.1
(0.3 - 1 .8)
0.1
(-0.2 - 0.3)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
1.1
(0.7 - 1 .6)
0.3
(-0.8 - 1 .3)
0.4
(0.1 -0.6)
0.1
(-0.1 -0.3)
0.1
(0-0.1)
0.4
(0.1 -0.6)
"All results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.
"Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***ln Atlanta, 10 ppb were subtracted from estimated PRB concentrations; in all other locations, 5 ppb were subtracted.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
1-13
December 2006
-------
Table 1-14. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated
Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations
that Just Meet An Alternative Standard of 0.074 ppm, 4th Daily Maximum : April - September, 2002*
Location
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St Louis
Washington
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Ito (2003)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Moolgavkaretal. (1995)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
1-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population
Associated with O3 Above:**
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations
0.4
(-1.6-2.4)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .3)
1.1
(0.4 - 1 .8)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .4)
6.7
(2.1 - 11.2)
2.5
(0.8 - 4.3)
3.0
(-1.9-7.8)
1.9
(0.6 - 3.2)
1.8
(-0.6 - 4.2)
0.9
(0.3 - 1 .5)
6.5
(-1.1 - 13.9)
3.5
(1.1-6)
2.2
(-2.1 -6.4)
0.4
(0 - 0.7)
0.2
(0.1 -0.3)
1.5
(0.1 -2.9)
1.3
(0.4-2.1)
0.2
(-0.4 - 0.7)
0.3
(0.1 -0.6)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .3)
1.7
(0.6 - 2.8)
6.0
(3.8 - 8.2)
0.9
(-2.6 - 4.2)
1.3
(0.4-2.1)
1.2
(-2.1-4.5)
1.1
(0.4 - 1 .8)
2.0
(0.7 - 3.4)
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations Minus
5 ppb***
0.9
(-3.8 - 5.5)
1.7
(0.6 - 2.9)
1.7
(0.6 - 2.8)
1.4
(0.5 - 2.4)
8.6
(2.7- 14.3)
3.2
(1 - 5.4)
4.4
(-2.8- 11.5)
2.8
(0.9 - 4.7)
3.1
(-1 - 7.1)
1.6
(0.5 - 2.6)
8.0
(-1.3- 17.2)
4.4
(1.4-7.4)
3.8
(-3.5-10.8)
0.8
(0-1.5)
0.4
(0.1 -0.7)
2.0
(0.2 - 3.8)
1.7
(0.5 - 2.8)
0.3
(-0.8 - 1 .5)
0.7
(0.3 - 1 .2)
1.2
(0.4 - 2)
2.5
(0.8 - 4.2)
8.9
(5.6- 12.2)
1.2
(-3.7-6.1)
1.8
(0.6 - 3)
2.1
(-3.6 - 7.7)
1.9
(0.6 - 3.2)
2.7
(0.9 - 4.4)
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations Plus 5
ppb
0.2
(-0.9 - 1 .3)
0.4
(0.1 -0.7)
0.7
(0.2-1.1)
0.4
(0.1 -0.7)
5.0
(1.6-8.4)
1.9
(0.6 - 3.2)
1.9
(-1.2-5.1)
1.2
(0.4-2.1)
1.0
(-0.3 - 2.3)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.8)
5.1
(-0.8- 10.9)
2.8
(0.9 - 4.7)
1.2
(-1.1 -3.5)
0.1
(0 - 0.3)
0.1
(0-0.1)
1.1
(0.1 -2.1)
0.9
(0.3 - 1 .5)
0.0
(-0.1 -0.2)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.4
(0.1 -0.6)
1.0
(0.3 - 1 .7)
3.6
(2.3 - 5)
0.5
(-1.6-2.7)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .3)
0.6
(-1 - 2.2)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.9)
1.2
(0.4 - 2)
*AII results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.
"Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***ln Atlanta, 10 ppb were subtracted from estimated PRB concentrations; in all other locations, 5 ppb were subtracted.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
1-14
December 2006
-------
Table 1-15. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated
Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations
that Just Meet An Alternative Standard of 0.064 ppm, 4th Daily Maximum : April - September, 2004*
Location
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St Louis
Washington
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Ito (2003)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Moolgavkar et al. (1995)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
1-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
24 hravg.
Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population
Associated with O3 Above:**
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations
0.2
(-0.7-1.1)
0.3
(0.1 -0.6)
0.5
(0.2-0.8)
0.3
(0.1 -0.4)
3.4
(1.1-5.7)
1.3
(0.4-2.2)
0.7
(-0.5 - 1 .9)
0.5
(0.2-0.8)
0.6
(-0.2 - 1 .3)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
3.2
(-0.5 - 6.9)
1.7
(0.5-2.9)
0.7
(-0.6 - 2)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
1.2
(0.1 -2.3)
1.0
(0.3 - 1 .7)
0.1
(-0.2 - 0.4)
0.2
(0.1 -0.4)
0.3
(0.1 -0.4)
0.6
(0.2-1)
2.2
(1.4-3)
0.4
(-1.3-2.2)
0.6
(0.2-1.1)
0.2
(-0.4 - 0.9)
0.2
(0.1 -0.4)
0.7
(0.2 - 1 .2)
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations Minus
5 ppb***
0.6
(-2.8 - 4)
1.3
(0.4-2.1)
1.0
(0.3 - 1 .6)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .3)
5.2
(1.7-8.7)
2.0
(0.6 - 3.3)
1.7
(-1.1-4.6)
1.1
(0.4 - 1 .8)
1.5
(-0.5 - 3.5)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .3)
4.7
(-0.8-10.1)
2.5
(0.8 - 4.3)
1.9
(-1.7-5.4)
0.6
(0-1.2)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
1.6
(0.2-3.1)
1.4
(0.4-2.3)
0.3
(-0.7 - 1 .2)
0.6
(0.2 - 1)
0.6
(0.2 - 0.9)
1.3
(0.5-2.2)
4.8
(3-6.6)
0.8
(-2.4 - 3.9)
1.2
(0.4 - 1 .9)
0.9
(-1.5-3.3)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .3)
1.3
(0.4-2.1)
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations Plus 5
ppb
0.1
(-0.2 - 0.4)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.2
(0.1 -0.3)
0.0
(0-0.1)
1.8
(0.6-3)
0.7
(0.2-1.1)
0.2
(-0.1 -0.5)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.1
(0-0.3)
0.1
(0-0.1)
1.9
(-0.3-4.1)
1.0
(0.3 - 1 .8)
0.1
(-0.1 -0.4)
0.0
(0-0.1)
0.0
(0-0)
0.9
(0.1-1.7)
0.7
(0.2 - 1 .2)
0.0
(0-0.1)
0.0
(0-0)
0.0
(0-0.1)
0.2
(0.1 -0.3)
0.6
(0.4-0.9)
0.2
(-0.5 - 0.8)
0.2
(0.1 -0.4)
0.0
(0-0.1)
0.0
(0-0)
0.2
(0.1 -0.4)
"All results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.
"Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***ln Atlanta, 10 ppb were subtracted from estimated PRB concentrations; in all other locations, 5 ppb were subtracted.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
1-15
December 2006
-------
Table 1-16. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated
Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations
that Just Meet An Alternative Standard of 0.064 ppm, 4th Daily Maximum : April - September, 2002*
Location
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Detroit
Houston
Los Angeles
New York
Philadelphia
Sacramento
St Louis
Washington
Study
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Ito (2003)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Schwartz (2004)
Schwartz - 14 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Moolgavkaretal. (1995)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Bell et al. - 95 US Cities (2004)
Lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
0-day lag
0-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
1-day lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
distributed lag
Exposure
Metric
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
1 hr max.
1 hr max.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
24 hr avg.
Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population
Associated with O3 Above:**
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations
0.3
(-1 .3 - 1 .8)
0.6
(0.2 - 1)
0.9
(0.3 - 1 .5)
0.6
(0.2-1.1)
5.5
(1.7-9.2)
2.1
(0.6 - 3.5)
2.5
(-1.6-6.5)
1.6
(0.5 - 2.7)
1.4
(-0.5 - 3.3)
0.7
(0.2 - 1 .2)
5.4
(-0.9 - 1 1 .6)
2.9
(0.9 - 4.9)
1.7
(-1 .6 - 5)
0.2
(0 - 0.4)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
1.1
(0.1 - 2)
0.9
(0.3 - 1 .5)
0.1
(-0.2 - 0.3)
0.1
(0 - 0.2)
0.6
(0.2-1.1)
1.4
(0.5 - 2.3)
5.0
(3.1 -6.8)
0.7
(-2.2 - 3.6)
1.1
(0.4 - 1 .8)
0.9
(-1.5-3.3)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .4)
1.7
(0.6 - 2.9)
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations Minus
5 ppb***
0.8
(-3.4 - 4.9)
1.5
(0.5 - 2.6)
1.5
(0.5 - 2.4)
1.2
(0.4 - 2)
7.3
(2.3- 12.2)
2.8
(0.9 - 4.6)
3.9
(-2.4- 10.1)
2.5
(0.8-4.1)
2.6
(-0.8 - 6)
1.3
(0.4 - 2.2)
6.9
(-1.1 - 14.8)
3.8
(1.2-6.3)
3.2
(-3 - 9.2)
0.5
(0-1)
0.3
(0.1 -0.4)
1.5
(0.1 -2.9)
1.3
(0.4-2.1)
0.2
(-0.5 - 1)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.8)
1.0
(0.3 - 1 .6)
2.2
(0.7 - 3.7)
7.8
(4.9- 10.7)
1.1
(-3.3 - 5.4)
1.6
(0.5 - 2.7)
1.8
(-3 - 6.4)
1.6
(0.5 - 2.6)
2.3
(0.8 - 3.9)
Estimates of PRB
Concentrations Plus 5
ppb
0.1
(-0.6 - 0.9)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
0.5
(0.2 - 0.8)
0.3
(0.1 -0.5)
3.8
(1.2-6.4)
1.4
(0.5 - 2.4)
1.5
(-0.9 - 3.9)
1.0
(0.3 - 1 .6)
0.7
(-0.2 - 1 .6)
0.3
(0.1 -0.6)
4.0
(-0.7 - 8.6)
2.2
(0.7 - 3.7)
0.8
(-0.8 - 2.4)
0.1
(0-0.1)
0.0
(0-0)
0.7
(0.1 -1.4)
0.6
(0.2 - 1)
0.0
(0-0)
0.0
(0-0)
0.3
(0.1 -0.4)
0.8
(0.3 - 1 .3)
2.8
(1.8-3.9)
0.4
(-1.3-2.1)
0.6
(0.2 - 1)
0.4
(-0.6 - 1 .4)
0.3
(0.1 -0.6)
1.0
(0.3 - 1 .6)
*AII results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.
"Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.
***ln Atlanta, 10 ppb were subtracted from estimated PRB concentrations; in all other locations, 5 ppb were subtracted.
Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.
Abt Associates Inc.
1-16
December 2006
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United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
Health and Environmental Impacts Division
Research Triangle Park, NC
Publication No. EPA 452/R-07-009
July 2007
Postal information in this section where appropriate.
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