&EPA United States Environmental Protection Agency Office of Atmospheric Programs (6207J) Washington, DC 20005 EPA-430-S1-4-002 April 2014 Mitigation of Non-C02 Greenhouse Gases in the United States: 2010 to 2030 ------- ------- Table of Contents Introduction 2 Energy Coal Mining 4 Oil and Natural Gas Systems 6 Waste Landfills 8 Wastewater 10 Industrial Processes Nitric and Adipic Acid Production 12 Refrigeration and Air Conditioning 14 Solvents 16 Foams Manufacturing, Use, and Disposal 18 Aerosols 20 Fire Protection 22 Aluminum Production 24 HCFC-22 Production 26 Semiconductor Manufacturing 28 Electric Power Systems 30 Magnesium Production 32 Photovoltaic Cell Manufacturing 34 Flat Panel Display Manufacturing 36 Agriculture Livestock 38 Rice Cultivation 40 Croplands 42 ------- Introduction Climate change is influenced by a number of social and environmental factors. The change in the Earth's climate is largely driven by emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) to the atmosphere. Although some GHG emissions occur through natural processes, the largest share of GHG emissions come from human activities. GHG emissions from anthropogenic sources have increased significantly over a relatively short time frame (-100 years) and are projected to grow appreciably over the next 20 years. Policy development and planning efforts are underway at all levels of society to identify climate change strategies that effectively reduce future GHG emissions and prepare communities to adapt to the Earth's changing climate. GHG mitigation analysis continues to play an important role in forming climate change policy. A large body of research has been dedicated to analyzing ways to reduce carbon dioxide (CC>2) emissions. Although this work is critical to developing effective climate policy, other GHGs can play an important role in the effort to address global climate change. These noncarbon dioxide (non-CC>2) GHGs include methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and a number of industrial gases such as fluorinated gases. Non-CO2 GHGs are more potent than CO2 (per unit weight) at trapping heat within the atmosphere. Global warming potential (GWP) is the factor that quantifies the heat-trapping potential of each GHG relative to that of CC>2. For example, CH4 has a GWP value of 21, which means that each molecule of CH4 released into the atmosphere is 21 times more effective at trapping heat than an equivalent unit of CO2. The table shows the list of GHGs with their GWP values that are considered in this report. Marginal abatement cost curves (MACC) are an analytical tool commonly used in mitigation analysis to assist policy makers in understanding the opportunities for reducing GHG emissions and the relative cost of implementing these opportunities. MACCs provide information on the amount of emissions reductions that can be achieved and an estimate of the costs of implementing the GHG abatement measures. This figure shows the MACC for all non-CO2 GHGs in the United States in 2030. The potential for cost-effective non-CO2 GHG abatement is significant. The figure shows the U.S. total aggregate MACC for the year 2030. The U.S. total mitigation potential is 569 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent (MtCC^e), or 43% of baseline non-CO2 emissions in 2030, or 11% of the total net U.S. GHG emissions in 2005. As the break-even price rises, the mitigation potential grows. Significant mitigation opportunities could be realized in the lower range of break-even prices. For example, the mitigation potential at a price of $10/tCO2e is greater than 360 MtCO2e, or 27% of the baseline emissions, and greater than 417 MtCO2e or 31% of the baseline emissions at $20/tCO2e. In the higher range of break-even prices, the MAC becomes steeper, and less mitigation potential exists for each additional increase in price. As the figure shows, higher levels of emissions reductions are achievable at higher abatement costs expressed in dollars per metric ton of CO2 equivalent (S/tCC^e) reduced. The quantity of emissions that can be reduced, or the abatement potential, is constrained by the availability and effectiveness of the abatement measures (emissions reduction technologies). Greenhouse Gases Carbon Dioxide Methane Nitrous Oxide Hydrofluorocarbons Sulfur Hexafluoride Abbreviation C02 CH4 N20 MFCs SF6 GWP* (100 year) 1 21 310 140 to 11,700 23,900 *GWP values from IPCC 4th Assessment Report (AR4) ------- United States MACC for Non-C02 Greenhouse Gases in 2030 Non-C02 Reductions (MtC02e) About this Report This report highlights the United States' mitigation potential from non-C02 emitting sectors. These results come from a broader study that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recently completed. The study served to update the agency's international MACC model for the major anthropogenic sources of non-C02 GHG emissions, which include the energy, waste, industrial, and agricultural sectors. EPA used the model to conduct a follow-on study to the 2006 EPA report Global Mitigation of Non-C02 Greenhouse Gases. The updated model includes improved spatial resolution (country level rather than broad regions), updated data and parameters, and increased transparency in the economic and technological assumptions underlying the abatement measures considered in the analysis. A detailed methodological description and the full results of this analysis are published in the EPA report Global Mitigation of Non-C02 Greenhouse Gases: 2010-2030. This summary report focuses on the United States, providing a brief overview of the abatement potential and costs of implementing specific abatement technologies nationally. Readers interested in more technical details of the analysis should refer to the full technical report, which is available at EPA's web page on International Non-C02 Mitigation.1 !The Global Mitigation of Non-C02 Greenhouse Gases: 2010-2030 report is available at: http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/EPAactivities/economics/nonco2mitigation.html ------- CH4 Emissions from Underground Coal Mining Sector Description Coal is an important energy source for many of the world's economies; it is used for energy generation or as a feedstock for industrial production. However, coal mining is a significant source of anthropogenic GHG emissions. Extracting coal through underground and surface mining releases CH4 stored in the coal bed and the surrounding geology. Emissions Reduction Potential Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the United States' coal mining sector could be reduced by up to 34.5 MtC02e in 2030. This accounts for 6% of the United States' total reduction potential (569 MtCC^e) in global reduction potential in 2030. Coal Mining 35 Oil & Natural Gas Systems Refrigeration & Air Conditioning Energy I Waste lndustnal Agriculture Processes Global Non-C02 Emissions Coal Mining sector baseline emissions are estimated to be 67 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030, emissions are projected to be 78 MtC02e, or 6% of total non-C02 emissions in the United States. Coal Mining 6% Projected Emissions in 2030 Emissions from the United States and other Major Emitting Countries (MtCO e) Rest of World: 151 MtC02e 51 -;/ 31 37 Energy Waste | Industrial Processes Agriculture Other Non-C02 Sources Not Modeled China United States Russia Australia Ukraine ROW ------- Key Points Coal mining accounted for 9% of total U.S. anthropogenic CH4 emissions in 2010; these emissions are projected to increase by 16% to 78 MtCOae by 2030. The U.S. abatement potential is projected to be 35 MtC02e, or 44% of baseline emissions from coal mining, in 2030. Cost-effective abatement potential ($0 break-even price) is 5 Mtt^e, or 6% of baseline. Abatement Measures Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices. VAM oxidation Degasification for pipeline injection Degasification for power generation Open flare On-site use in coal drying On-site use in mine boiler 0 5 10 15 20 25 Reductions achievable at costs less than $0/tC02e Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tC02e Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030 It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 6%, compared with the baseline, in 2030. An additional 38% reduction is available using technologies with increasingly higher costs. Reduction Potential 30 38% Baseline: 78 MtC02e Residual Emissions Technically Feasible at Increasing Costs Reductions at No Cost Abatement Measures Five abatement measures were considered in this analysis: recovery for pipeline injection, power generation, process heating, flaring, and catalytic or thermal oxidation of ventilation air methane (VAM). These reduction technologies consist of one or more of the following primary components: (1) a drainage and recovery system to remove CH4 from the underground coal seam, (2) the end-use application for the gas recovered from the drainage system, and (3) the VAM recovery or mitigation system. Abatement Potential Approximately 44% of total annual coal mining related CH4 emissions in 2030 can be reduced by adopting the suite of abatement measures considered. The MACC results suggest that significant reductions in CH4 emissions can be achieved at break-even prices at or below $10/tCO2e. Nearly 5 MtCO2e are cost-effectively achievable at a break- even price of $0/tCO2e. co CD -t> ro -a CD CD co CD co ro CD co o CD CD C\J O O o c o '-41 ro DJD co co CD CH ro E E ^ CO ------- Oil and Natural Gas CH4 Emissions from Oil and Natural Gas Systems Sector Description Oil and natural gas systems are one of the leading emitters of anthropogenic CH4, releasing over 140 MtCO2e, or 23% of total U.S. CH4 emissions in 2010. CH4 emissions from the oil and natural gas system are projected to grow 26% between 2010 and 2030. Future growth is largely due to the continued expansion of domestic oil and natural gas production in the United States. Emissions Reduction Potential Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the United States' oil and natural gas systems sector could be reduced by up to 140 MtC02e in 2030. This accounts for 25% of the United States' total reduction potential (569 MtC02e) in 2030. Oil & Natural Gas Syster- Oil & Natural Gas Systems 140 Refrigeration & Air Conditioning Livestock Energy Waste Industrial Processes Agriculture Global Non-C02 Emissions Oil and Natural Gas sector baseline emissions are estimated to be 248 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030, emissions are projected to be 313 MtC02e, or 23% of total non-C02 emissions. Oil & Natural Gas Systems 23% Projected Emissions in 2030 Emissions from the United States and other Major Emitting Countries (MtCO e) Rest of World: 971 MtC02e 313 188 107 116 Energy | Waste | Industrial Processes Agriculture Other Non-C02 Sources Not Modeled Russia United States Iraq Kuwait Uzbekistan ROW ------- Key Points The technological maximum for emissions reduction potential in oil and natural gas systems in the United States is 141 MtCOae, approximately 45% of projected oil and gas related CH4 emissions in 2030. Because of the energy value of the ChU captured, EPA estimates that 84 MtCQae, or 27% of the baseline emissions, can be cost-effectively reduced. Over 45% of abatement potential is achieved by adopting abatement measures in the oil and gas production segments. Abatement Measures Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices. Installing plunger lift systems in gas wells Directed inspection & maintenance Installing catalytic converters on gas engines and turbines Fuel gas retrofit for BD valve - take recip. compressors offline * Replacing wet seals with dry seals in centrifugal compressors Installing surge vessels for capturing blowdown vents Reciprocating compressor rod packing (Static-Pac) Installing flash tank separators on dehydrators Replacing high-bleed pneumatic devices in the natural gas industry Reduce emission completions for hydraulically fractured natural gas wells Other measures 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Reductions achievable at costs less than $0/tC02e Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tCO e Abatement Measures Numerous abatement measures are available to mitigate CH4 emissions across the four oil and natural gas system segments of production, processing, transmission, and distribution. The measures can be applied to various components or equipment commonly used in oil and natural gas system segments. The abetment measures typically fall into three categories: equipment modifications/upgrades; changes in operational practices, including direct inspection and maintenance; and installation of new equipment. co CD -t> 03 -a CD CD co CD co 03 CD CO O CD CD C\J O O o c o '-4I 03 DJD CO co CD CH 03 E E ^ CO Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030 It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 27%, compared with the baseline, in 2030. An additional 18% reduction is available using technologies with increasingly higher costs. Reduction Potential 18% 27% Baseline: 313 MtC02e Residual Emissions Technically Feasible at Increasing Costs Reductions at No Cost Abatement Potential In 2030, the abatement potential in the U.S. oil and natural gas systems sector is projected to be 140.6 MtCC>2e, or 45% of total non-CC>2 emissions. The abatement potential drops over time to 126 MtCC^e in 2020 before rising back to 140 MtCO2e in 2030. Over 70% of the emissions reductions in 2030 are achievable at prices at or below $15. ------- CH4 Emissions from Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) Landfills Sector Description Landfills produce CH4 in combination with other landfill gases (LFGs) through the natural process of bacterial decomposition of organic waste under anaerobic conditions. LFG is generated over a period of several decades with gas flows usually beginning 1 to 2 years after the waste is put in place. The amount of CH4 generated by landfills per country is determined by a number of factors that include population size, the quantity of waste disposed of per capita, composition of the waste disposed of, and the waste management practices applied at the landfill. Emissions Reduction Potential Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the United States' landfill sector could be reduced by up to 14.6 MtC02e in 2030. This accounts for 3% of the United States' total reduction potential (569 MtC02e) in 2030. Landfills 15 Oil & Natural Gas Systems Refrigeration & Air Conditioning Energy Waste Industrial Processes Agriculture Global Non-C02Emissions Landfill sector baseline emissions are estimated to be 130 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030, emissions are projected to be 128 MtC02e, or 10% of total non-CO. emissions in the United States. Projected Emissions in 2030 Landfills 10% Emissions from the United States and other Major Emitting Countries (MtCO e) Rest of World: 632 MtC02e 40 Energy Waste | Industrial Processes Agriculture Other Non-C02 Sources Not Modeled United States Mexico China Russia Malaysia ROW ------- Key Points Abatement potential from U.S. landfills is 15 MtCC^e, roughly 11% of projected landfill baseline emissions in 2030. Abatement measures with costs below $20/tC02e can achieve a 9% reduction in baseline emissions. Abatement measures include (1) conversion of landfill gas to energy and (2) waste diversion projects that use waste in the production of new products. Abatement Measures Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices. Electricity generation with reciprocating engine Flaring of landfill gas Landfill gas recovery for direct use Electricity generation with CHP Electricity generation with gas turbine Electricity generation with microturbine Anaerobic digestion Enhanced oxidation Waste to energy (WTE) Pa per recycling Mechanical biological treatment (MBT) Composting 0123456 I Reductions achievable at costs less than $0/tC02e 1 Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tC02e Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030 It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 1.3%, compared to the baseline, in 2030. An additional 10% reduction is available using technologies with increasingly higher costs. Reduction Potential 1% Baseline: 128 MtC02e Residual Emissions Technically Feasible at Increasing Costs Reductions at No Cost Several abatement measures are available to control landfill CH4 emissions, and they are commonly grouped into three major categoric (1) collection and flaring, (2) LFG utilization systems (LFG capture fc energy use), and (3) enhanced wasi diversion practices (e.g., recycling a reuse programs). Although flaring L currently the most common abatement measure, LFG utilization options may be more cost-effective. Under favorable market conditions, recycling and reuse or composting alternatives mr provide additional means for reduc emissions from landfills. Abatement Potential Abatement potential in the solid waste landfill sector is estimated to approximately 14.6 MtCC^e of tot annual emissions in 2030, or 11% < U.S. landfill baseline emissions. Thi MACC results suggest that there ar significant opportunities for CH4 reductions in the landfill sector at cost: below $20 per tCC^e of emissions reduced. Furthermore, approximate 1.7 MtCO2e of reductions are cost- effective. ------- Wastewater CH4 Emissions from Municipal Wastewater Systems Sector Description Wastewater is the sixth largest emitter of anthropogenic CH4 in the United States, accounting for 25 MtCO2e in 2010; wastewater treatment is also a source of N2O emissions. Domestic and industrial wastewater treatment activities can lead to venting and fugitive emissions of CH4, which are produced when organic material decomposes under anaerobic conditions of wastewater in a facility. Developed countries like the United States use aerobic wastewater treatment systems to minimize the amount of CH4 generated. Emissions Reduction Potential Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the United States' wastewater sector could be reduced by up to 14 MtC02e in 2030. This accounts for 3% of the United States' total reduction potential (569 MtC02e) in 2030. Oil & Natural Gas Systems Wastewater 14 Refrigeration & Air Conditioning Energy Waste Industrial Processes Agriculture Global Non-C02 Emissions Wastewater sector baseline emissions are estimated to be 25 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030, emissions are projected to be 30 MtC02e, or 2% of total non-CO. emissions in the United States. Wastewater 2% Projected Emissions in 2030 Emissions from the United States and other Major Emitting Countries (MtCO e) Rest of World: 252 MtC02e r 78 Energy Waste H Industrial | Agriculture Processes Other Non-C02 Sources Not Modeled China Nigeria Mexico India United States ROW ------- Key Points U.S. CH4 emissions from wastewater treatment accounted for 25 MtCChe in 2010 a are projected to grow 20% by 2030. The estimated maximum abatement potential in 2030 is 14 MtCC^e, or 48% of projected wastewater emissions. Given the existing level of wastewater treatment infrastructure present in the Unil States, options for reducing emissions in this sector are limited to the highest cos abatement measures. Abatement Measures Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices. Septic tank to aerobic WWTP Wastewater treatment plant with anaerobic sludge digester with co-gen Latrine to aerobic WWTP Open sewer to aerobic WWTP I 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Reductions achievable at costs less than $0/tC02e Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tCO,e Abatement Measun CH4 emissions from wastewater ca be significantly reduced by improvi infrastructure and equipment. Abatement measures available in tb wastewater sector include installing aerobic wastewater treatment plant on an individual or centralized seal and installing anaerobic wastewatei treatment plants with cogeneration Factors such as economic resources population density, government, ar technical capabilities are important mitigating emissions from the wastewater sector. Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030 There are no cost-effective reductions available in the wastewater sector in 2030. However, a 48% reduction is available using technologies with increasingly higher costs. Reduction Potential Baseline: 30 MtC02e Residual | Emissions Technically Feasible at Increasing Costs Reductions at No Cost Abatement Potential The U.S. abatement potential of CH4 from wastewater treatment is 10 MtCO2e in 2020 rising to 14 MtCO2e in 2030. This level of CH mitigation is considered to be the technological maximum abatement potential because high-cost abatem measures in the wastewater treatme sector significantly constrain the abatement achievable at lower carK prices. ------- Nitric and Adipic Acid Production N20 Emissions from Nitric and Adipic Acid Production Sector Description Nitric and adipic acid are commonly used as feedstock in manufacturing a variety of commercial products, particularly fertilizer and synthetic fibers. The process used to produce nitric and adipic acid generates significant quantities of N2O as a by-product. The production of nitric and adipic acid is expected to increase over time, driven by continued growth in demand for fertilizer and synthetic fibers. Emissions Reduction Potential Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the United States' nitric and adipic acid production sector could be reduced by up to 27 MtC02e in 2030. This accounts for 5% of the United States' total reduction potential (569 MtC02e) in 2030. Nitric and Adipic Acid Production 27 Oil & Natural Gas Systems Refrigeration & Air Conditioning Energy Waste Industrial Processes Agriculture Global Non-C02 Emissions Nitric and Adipic Acid Production sector baseline emissions are estimated to be 29 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030, emissions are projected to be 37 MtC02e, or 3% of total non-CO emissions in the United States. Projected Emissions in 2030 Emissions from the United States and other Major Emitting Countries (MtC02e) Rest of World: 57 MtC02e Nitric & Adipic Acid Production 3% ~ Energy Waste | Industrial Processes Agriculture Other Non-C02 Sources Not Modeled United States South Korea Brazil China Ukraine ROW ------- Key Points The U.S. abatement potential is 27 MtCOje, or 72% of projected nitric and ad acid production related emissions in 2030. A 55% reduction in emissions is achievable at carbon prices below $20. Abatement measure selection is driven by facility design constraints and/or operating costs. Abatement Measures Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices. Tail-gas catalytic decomposition Non-selective catalytic reduction Catalytic decomposition in the burner Homogeneous decomposition in the burner Thermal destruction 1234567 Reductions achievable at costs less than $0/tC02e Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tCO,e Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030 There are no cost-effective reductions available in the nitric and adipic acid production sector in 2030. However, a 72% reduction is available using technologies with increasingly higher costs. Reduction Potential Baseline: 37 MtC02e Residual | Technically Feasible Emissions at Increasing Costs Reductions at No Cost Abatement Measures N2O emissions can be mitigated through a number of alternative abatement measures. In nitric acid production, reduction technologies are categorized by their location in the production process. Secondary reduction technologies, such as homogeneous thermal decomposition and catalytic decomposition, are installed at an intermediate point in the production process. Tertiary reduction technologies, such as catalytic decomposition and nonselective catalytic reduction units, are applied to the tail gas streams at the end of the production process. The implementation of one technology over another is driven largely by facility design constraints and/or cost considerations. Thermal destruction is the single abatement measure considered in this analysis. Abatement Potential The U.S. abatement potential in the nitric and adipic acid sector is approximately 27 MtCC^e of total annual emissions in 2030, or 72% of projected baseline emissions from this sector. The MACC results show that maximum reduction potential is achievable at break-even prices below $50/tCO2e. ------- Refrigeration and Air Conditioning HFC Emissions from Refrigeration and Air Conditioning Systems Sector Description Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) used in refrigeration and air conditioning (AC) systems are emitted to the atmosphere during equipment operation, repair, and disposal, unless recovered, recycled, and ultimately destroyed. Equipment is being retrofitted or replaced to use HFCs that are substitutes for ozone-depleting substances. Some of the most common HFCs are HFC-134a, R-404A, R-410A, R-407C, and R-507A. Emissions Reduction Potential Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the United States' refrigeration & air conditioning sector could be reduced by up to 243 MtC02e in 2030. This accounts for 43% of the United States' total reduction potential (569 MtC02e) in 2030. V « Oil & Natural Gas Systems Refrigeration & Air Conditioning 243 Refrigeration & Air Conditioning Energy Waste Industrial Processes Agriculture Global Non-C02 Emissions Refrigeration & Air Conditioning sector baseline emissions are estimated to be 114 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030, emissions are projected to be 317 MtC02e, or 24% of total non-C02 emissions in the United States. Projected Emissions in 2030 Emissions from the United States and other Major Emitting Countries (MtC02e) Rest of World: 527 MtC02e Refrigeration & Air Conditioning 24% Energy Waste | Industrial Processes Agriculture Other Non-C02 Sources Not Modeled China United States South Korea Russia Jaoan ROW ------- Key Points .edis243MtC02e,or77%of The U.S. abatement potentia. .. M|^v,^..- *,«., *..., ...«..... ^, . ..,~ . projected emissions from this sector in 2030. 43% of the baseline 2030 emissions can be abated using cost-effective mitigation measures ($0 pertCl^e). This sector is the second largest source of non-C02 abatement potential in the United States, accounting for 24% of total abatement potential across all non-CC^ emitting sectors in 2030. Abatement Measures Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices. R-410A to R-32 for unitary AC R-32 with MCHX in New Unitary AC Equipment Refrigerant recovery at disposal for existing refrigeration/AC equipment Enhanced HFO-1234yf in motor vehicle air-conditioners HFC secondary loop in large retail food C02 transcritical system in large retail food HFO-1234yf in motor vehicle air-conditioners MicroChannel heat exchangers (MCHX) in new equipment Distributed systems in large retail food Refrigerant recovery at servicing for existing small equipment NH3 secondary loop in large retail food Leak Repair for Existing Large Equipment NH3 and C02 in cold storage and industrial process refrigeration (IPR) ' Other measures | 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 I Reductions achievable at costs less than $0/tC02e I Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tCO e Abatement Measures HFC abatement measures are categorized into three categories: (1) retrofit of existing systems to use lower-GWP refrigerants; (2) new cooling systems that use lower- GWP refrigerants and/or reduce the charge size; and (3) better refrigerant management practices that reduce emissions during use, servicing, and disposal. Such options are analyzed for end uses such as retail food refrigeration systems, window and unitary AC equipment, motor vehicle AC systems, and other types of cooling systems. Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030 It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 43%, compared with the baseline, in 2030. An additional 34% reduction is available using technologies with increasingly higher costs. Reduction Potential Baseline: 317 MtC02e Residual | Technically Feasible Emissions at Increasing Costs Reductions at No Cost Abatement Potential The U.S. abatement potential from refrigeration and AC abatement is calculated to be 243 MtCO2e in 2030, or 77% of baseline emissions from this sector; additional uncalculated options are explored qualitatively. The MACC results show that 138 MtCO2e, or 43% of 2030 emissions, can be reduced at a cost of $0 by implementing "no-regret" options. All abatement options quantified are achievable at mitigation costs below $100/tCO2e. ------- vent HFC Emissions from Solvent Use Sector Description HFC solvents are primarily used in precision cleaning applications and electronic cleaning applications. Precision cleaning requires a high level of cleanliness to ensure the satisfactory performance of the product being cleaned, and electronics cleaning is defined as a process that removes contaminants, primarily solder flux residues, from electronics or circuit boards. It is assumed that eventually approximately 90% of the solvent consumed in a given year is emitted, while 10% of the solvent is disposed of with the sludge that remains. Emissions Reduction Potential Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the United States' solvent use sector could be reduced by up to 1.3 MtC02e in 2030. This accounts for 0.23% of the United States' total reduction potential (569 MtC02e) in 2030. p m > Oil & Natural Gas Systems Refrigeration & Air Conditioning Energy Waste Industrial Processes Agriculture Global Non-C02Emissions Solvents sector baseline emissions are estimated to be 1.3 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030, emissions are projected to be 2 MtC02e, or 0.1% of total non-C02 emissions in the United States. Solvents 0.1% Projected Emissions in 2030 Emissions from the United States and other Major Emitting Countries (MtCCLe) Rest of World: 2.7 MtC02e Energy Waste | Industrial Processes Agriculture Other Non-C02 Sources Not Modeled China United States Japan Russia South Korea ROW ------- Key Points Emissions from the solvents sector are expected to grow by 50%, growing from 1.3 to 1.9 MtC02e between 2010 and 2030. The maximum abatement potential in the solvents sector from the options analyzed is estimated to be 1.3 MtCOae, or 66% of the projected sector baseline in 2030. In 2030,1.1 MtCOae of emissions reductions are cost-effective (i.e., $0/tC02e or lower break-even prices). Abatement Measures Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices. Substitute HFE solvents for HFC-4310mee Replace HFC cleaning system with NIK aqueous cleaning system Replace HFC cleaning system with NIK Semi-aqueous cleaning system Retrofit existing equipment I I 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1. Reductions achievable at costs less than $0/tC02e 1 Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tCO e Abatement Measures Four abatement options were identified for the solvent sector: (1) replacement of HFCs with HFEs, (2) retrofitting of vapor degreaser equipment to reduce emissions, (3) transition to not-in-kind (NIK) aqueous cleaning, and (4) transition to NIK semi-aqueous cleaning. These technologies have reduction efficiencies of between 50% and 100%. Retrofitting equipment and controls is limited to facilities that have not already been retrofitted. Transition to NIK aqueous and NIK semi-aqueous applicability is limited to some electronic cleaning processes. Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030 It would be cost effective to reduce emissions by 55%, compared with the baseline, in 2030. An additional 11% reduction is available using technologies with increasingly higher costs. Reduction Potential Baseline: 2 MtC02e Residual Emissions J Technically Feasible at Increasing Costs Reductions at No Cost Abatement Potential The U.S. abatement potential in 2020 and 2030 is 0.8 and 1.3 MtCC>2e, respectively. In 2030, reduction of 1.1 MtCO2e , or 55%, of total projected sector emissions, is achievable at mitigation costs below $0/tCO2e. Additional abatement of approximately 0.2 MtCC^e is achievable at mitigation costs greater than $50/tCO2e. ------- Foams HFC Emissions from Foams Manufacturing, Use, and Disposal Sector Description Foam is used as insulation in a wide range of equipment, structures, and other common products. Foams were historically produced with ozone-depleting substances (ODSs), which have been phased out under the Montreal Protocol in developed countries and are being phased out in developing countries. In some end uses, HFC blowing agents have largely replaced ODSs. HFC emissions from the foams sector were approximately 6.1 MtCO2e in 2010 and are projected to increase substantially to 16.5 MtCO2e and 30.5 MtCO2e by 2020 and 2030, respectively. Emissions Reduction Potential Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the United States' foams sector could be reduced by up to 17.5 MtC02e in 2030. This accounts for 3% of the United States' total reduction potential (569 MtC02e) in 2030. Oil & Natural Gas Systems Refrigeration & Air Conditioning Energy Waste Industrial Processes Agriculture Global Non-C02 Emissions Foams sector baseline emissions are estimated to be 6 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030, emissions are projected to be 31 MtC02e, or 2% of total non-CO. emissions in the United States. Projected Emissions in 2030 Emissions from the United States and other Major Emitting Countries (MtCO e) Rest of World: 17 MtC02e X26 Energy | Waste H Industrial Agriculture | Other Non-C02 Processes Sources Not Modeled United States Japan Germany France Italy ROW ------- Key Points In the United States, HFC emissions from foams are projected to quintuple over the next 20 years. Abatement measures include replacing MFCs with low-GWP blowing agents and proper recovery and disposal of foam present in existing systems at their end of life. In 2030, the U.S. abatement potential quantified is 12.6 MtCIhe (41% of business-as-usual [BAU] emissions from the foam sector) at cost-effective prices ($0 per tC02e). At higher prices, the abatement options analyzed have the potential to abate up to 17.5 MtC02e (57% of BAU emissions) in 2030. Abatement Measures Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices. Substitute HFC with HCCom Substitute HFC with HC Substitute LCD-Alcohol for HFC134aC02 Appliance EOL-manual recovery Appliance end of life (EOL)-fully automated Substitute C02 for HFC245faC02 Continuous and discontinuous: HFC 134a switch to HC Substitute HC for HFC245faCO, One component HFC- 134a switch to HC I One component HFC-152a switch to HC 012345 I Reductions achievable at costs less than $0/tC02e I Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tC02e Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030 It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 41%, compared with the baseline, in 2030. An additional 16% reduction is available using technologies with increasingly higher costs. Reduction Potential Baseline: 31 MtCO,e | Residual Emissions | Technically Feasible at Increasing Costs Reductions at No Cost Abatement Measures Abatement options considered include replacing HFCs with various low-GWP blowing agents and properly recovering and disposing of foam contained in equipment and other products after its useful life. More specifically, the use of hydrocarbon or CO2 blowing agents instead of HFCs is assessed quantitatively as an abatement measure in the foam sector noting that other low-GWP agents (e.g., HFO-1234ze, -1233zd[E]) would achieve similar abatement levels. Abatement Potential The total abatement potential in the foams sector from the options explored is 17.5 MtCO2e57% of total annual foams sector emissions in 2030while 12.6 MtCO2e, or 41%, is achievable at cost-effective carbon prices for the same year. Total replacement of HFC blowing agents in foams is limited in the near term by the installed base of foam products. All abatement options analyzed replace blowing agents in newly manufactured foams or destroy the blowing agent only at the foam's natural end of life. ------- Aerosols HFC Emissions from Aerosols Product Use Sector Description Aerosol propellant formulations containing HFCs are present in a wide variety of consumer products such as hairsprays, deodorants, and cleaning suppliesas well as technical and medical aerosols. Baseline HFC emissions from aerosols in the United States were estimated at 8.9 MtCC^e in 2010 and are expected to increase to 15.6MtCO2eby2030. Emissions Reduction Potential Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the United States' aerosols product use sector could be reduced by up to 10.3 MtC02e in 2030. This accounts for 2% of the United States' total reduction potential (569 MtC02e) in 2030. Aerosols Product Use 10 Oil & Natural Gas Systems Refrigeration & Air Conditioning Energy Waste Industrial Processes Agriculture Global Non-C02 Emissions Aerosols Product Use sector baseline emissions are estimated to be 9 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030, emissions are projected to be 16 MtC02e, or 1% of total non-C02 emissions in the United States. Projected Emissions in 2030 Aerosols Product Use 1% Emissions from the United States and other Major Emitting Countries (MtC02e) Rest of World: 49 MtC02e Energy || Waste | Industrial | Agriculture Other Non-C02 Processes Sources Not Modeled China United States India Russia Mexico ROW ------- Key Points U.S. baseline emissions in 2010 for aerosols were estimated at 8.9 MtCOae and projected to climb to 13.0 MtC02e and 15.6 MtC02e by 2020 and 2030, respectively. Five abatement measures were considered for the aerosols sector, including transitioning away from HFC use to lower-GWP propellants and producing alternative nonaerosol consumer products, such as a stick or roller. Relatively low-cost abatement measures (<$5/tC02e) are projected to be capable of mitigating 53% of the sector emissions in 2030. Abatement Measures Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices. Substitute HC for HFC-134a Substitute NIK for HFC-1523 Dry powder inhalers Substitute NIK for HFC-1343 Substitute HFO-1234ze for HFC-1343 Substitute HC for HFC-152a Substitute HFO-1234ze for HFC-152a Substitute HFC-1523 for HFC-1343 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 I Reductions achievable at costs less than $0/tC02e I Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tC02f Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030 It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 48%, compared with the baseline, in 2030. An additional 18% reduction is available using technologies with increasingly higher costs. Reduction Potential Baseline: 16 MtC02e Residual ] Technically Feasible Emissions at Increasing Costs Reductions at No Cost Abatement Measures Abatement options available to reduce emissions for consumer aerosol products include transitioning to replacement propellants with lower GWPs HCs, HFO-1234ze, and HFC-152a (where HFC-134a is used)and converting to an NIK alternative, such as sticks, rollers, or finger/ trigger pumps. Abatement Potential The U.S. abatement potential from aerosols containing HFCs is estimated to be 10.3 MtCO2e66% of baseline emissions from this sector and 3% of total annual emissions from all sectors that use ODS substitutes in 2030. At $5 per tCO2e, the abatement potential is estimated to be 53.4% of baseline sector emissions, or 8.3 MtCC^e. Furthermore, the abatement potential at break-even prices <$0 per tCO2e is 7.5 MtCO2e (48.2% of baseline sector emissions) in 2030. ------- Fire Protection HFC and RFC Emissions from Fire Protection Equipment Sector Description The fire protection sector emits HFCs and PFCs when total flooding fire suppression systems and portable fire extinguishers are used. U.S. GHG emissions from this sector were estimated at 0.8 MtCO2e in 2010. Under the baseline scenario, emissions are projected to increase to 2.2 MtCO2e in 2030. Emissions Reduction Potential Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the United States' fire protection sector could be reduced by up to 0.14 MtC02e in 2030. This accounts for 0.02% of the United States' total reduction potential (569 MtC02e) in 2030. Fire Protection 0.14 Oil & Natural Gas Systems Refrigeration & Air Conditioning Energy Waste Industrial Processes Agriculture Global Non-C02 Emissions Fire Protection sector baseline emissions are estimated to be 0.8 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030, emissions are projected to be 2.2 MtC02e, or 0.2% of total non-CO. emissions in the United States. Energy Waste Fire Protection 0.2% | Industrial ' Agriculture Processes Projected Emissions in 2030 Emissions from the United States and other Major Emitting Countries (MtCO e) Rest of World: 36 MtC02e V *f Other Non-C02 Sources Not Modeled Australia China Japan Poland United States ROW ------- Key Points GHG emissions from fire protection equipment are projected to more than double between 2010 and 2030. Total flooding fire suppression abatement options involve replacing MFCs and perfluorocarbons (PFCs) with lower-GWP alternatives, including both in-kind and NIK measures. There is no abatement potential in the U.S. fire protection equipment sector in 2030. Abatement Measures Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices. FK-5-1-12 in new Class A total flooding applications Inert gas systems Water mist systems 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 Reductions achievable at costs less than $0/tC02e 1 Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tCO,e Abatement Measures The abatement options explored replace HFCs and PFCs with zero- or low-GWP extinguishing agents to reduce CO2e emissions from the fire protection sector's total flooding equipment. The alternatives to HFCs and PFCs in total flooding equipment are both in-kind gaseous agents and NIK options. The in- kind gaseous alternatives include CO2, inert gases, and fluorinated ketones, and the NIK alternatives include varying materials and systems such as dispersed and condensed aerosol extinguishing systems, water sprinklers, water mist, foam, and inert gas generators. Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030 There are no cost-effective reductions available in the fire protection sector in 2030. However, a 6% reduction is available using technologies with increasingly higher costs. Reduction Potential 0% Baseline: 2 MtC02e Residual | Technically Feasible Emissions at Increasing Costs Reductions at No Cost Abatement Potential From the options quantified, U.S. abatement potential of emissions from total flooding fire suppression applications is projected to be 0.14 MtCO2e, or nearly 7% of baseline sector emissions, in 2030. There is little abatement potential at carbon prices below $50 per tCO2e in 2030, which is projected to have the potential to abate 41.3 MtCO2e from the fire protection sector, or 6% of baseline sector emissions. ------- Aluminum P tibn RFC Emissions from Primary Aluminum Production Sector Description The primary aluminum production industry produces PFC emissions during brief process upset conditions in the aluminum smelting process. PFCs from primary aluminum production in the United States are projected to decrease by 2%, from 3.7 MtCO2e in 2010 to 3.6 MtCO2e in 2030. Emissions Reduction Potential Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the United States' primary aluminum production sector could be reduced by up to 2.1 MtC02e in 2030. This accounts for 0.37% of the United States' total reduction potential (569 MtC02e) in 2030. Aluminum Production 2 Energy Waste Industrial Processes Agriculture Global Non-C02 Emissions Primary Aluminum Production sector baseline emissions are estimated to be 3.7 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030, emissions are projected to be 3.6 MtC02e or 0.3% of total non-C02 emissions in the United States. Projected Emissions in 2030 Emissions from the United States and other Major Emitting Countries (MtC02e) Rest of World: 9 MtC02e Primary Aluminum Production 0.3% Energy Waste | Industrial Processes Agriculture Other Non-C02 Sources Not Modeled China United States Russia Canada Australia ROW ------- Key Points PFC emissions from primary aluminum production represent the fourth largest source of fluorinated greenhouse gas (F-GHG) emissions in the U.S. industrial sector. Primary abatement measures include installation of or upgrades to process computer control systems and the installation of systems to allow more precise alumina feeding. Abatement measures in this sector have the potential to reduce over half of the projected baseline emissions. Abatement Measures Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices. Minor retrofit (process computer control systems only) Major retrofit (process computer control systems + alumina point feeding) Reductions achievable at costs less than $0/tC02e Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tCO,e Abatement Measures Abatement options in the primary aluminum production sector are pri- marily associated with installing or upgrading process computer control systems and alumina point-feed sys- tem. The options considered involve (1) a minor retrofit to upgrade the process computer control systems and (2) a major retrofit to the pro- cess computer control systems cou- pled with the installation of alumina point-feed systems. Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030 There are no cost-effective reductions available in the primary aluminum production sector in 2030. However, a 58% reduction is available using technologies with increasingly higher costs. Reduction Potential Baseline: 4 MtC02e Residual Emissions Technically Feasible at Increasing Costs Reductions at No Cost Abatement Potential U.S. abatement potential in the primary aluminum sector is projected to be 2.1 MtCC^e, or nearly 58% of baseline sector emissions in 2030. There are no cost-effective reductions available in 2030 for this sector, but mitigation is feasible with the adoption of more costly mitigation measures. In 2030, mitigation measures that cost less than or equal to $30/tCO2e have the potential to reduce emissions by 1.7 MtCO2e, or 81% of the total abatement potential. ------- HCFC-22 Production Fluorinated Greenhouse Gas (F-GHG) Emissions from HCFC-22 Productio Sector Description Chlorodifluoromethane (HCFC-22) is used in emissive applications (air conditioning and refrigeration) as well as in feedstock for synthetic polymer production. The production of HCFC-22 generates HFC-23 as a by-product, which is separated as a vapor from the condensed HCFC-22; emissions occur through HFC-23 venting to the atmosphere. HFC-23 emissions were estimated at 128 MtCO2e and are projected to increase to 259 and 286 MtCO2e in 2020 and 2030, respectively. Because HCFC-22 depletes stratospheric ozone, its production is being phased out under the Montreal Protocol in areas apart from feedstock production. Emissions Reduction Potential It is assumed that HCFC-22 production facilities in the United States have voluntarily adopted measures to control emissions and the baseline represents residual emissions. Hence, the United States has no additional abatement potential in 2030. HCFC-22 Production 0 Oil & Natu GasSyste Refrigeration & Air Conditioning Energy Waste Industrial Processes Agriculture Global Non-C02 Emissions HCFC-22 Production sector baseline emissions are estimated to be 12 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030, emissions are projected to be 6 MtC02e, or 0.5% of total non-CO. emissions in the United States. Projected Emissions in 2030 HCFC-22 Production 0.5% Emissions from the United States and other Major Emitting Countries (MtC02e) Rest of World: 12 MtC02e 29 Energy Waste | Industrial Processes Agriculture Other Non-C02 Sources Not Modeled China India Mexico Russia United States ROW ------- Key Points Existing voluntary measures adopted by HCFC-22 producers in the United States mean that additional abatement from domestic sources will be limited in the future. Although the United States is projected to have no abatement in this sector, it remains an important opportunity for additional abatement internationally in other HCFC-producing countries that do not have abatement measures in place. Thermal oxidation is the only abatement option considered for the HCFC-22 production sector. The maximum abatement potential is achievable at costs below $1 per tC02e. Abatement Measures Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices. Thermal oxidation o Reductions achievable at costs less than $0/tC02e Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tCO,e Abatement Measures Thermal oxidation is the only abatement option considered in this analysis for the HCFC- 22 production sector. Thermal oxidation is a demonstrated technology that oxidizes HFC- 23 to CO2, hydrogen fluoride, and water for the destruction of halogenated organic compounds. This process is assumed to be compatible with all facilities. Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030 The United States has no additional abatement potential because it is as- sumed that existing voluntary actions have already reduced emissions by the maximum potential in 2030. Additional reductions are not technologically feasible based on the current suite of abatement measures available in this sector. Baseline: 6 MtC02e Residual Emissions Technically Feasible at Increasing Costs Reductions at No Cost Abatement Potential The baseline emissions from HCFC-22 production facilities in the United States represent residual emissions from facilities with abatement measures already in place. For this reason, the abatement potential is zero for the United States. Despite the lack of domestic abatement opportunities, this sector remains an important source of low-cost abatement opportunities internationally. ------- '^^^ .fvl Semiconductor Manufacturing F-GHG Emissions from Semiconductor Manufacturing Sector Description The semiconductor industry uses several F-GHGs, including sulfur hexafluoride (SFg), nitrogen trifluoride (NF3), and PFCs during fabrication. Trace amounts of these gases are incidentally released into the atmosphere through normal fabrication activities. In 2010, 4.5 MtCO2e of emissions were produced from the U.S. semiconductor sector. Emissions Reduction Potential Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the United States' semiconductor manufacturing sector could be reduced by up to 0.9 MtC02e in 2030. This accounts for 0.16% of the United States' total reduction potential (569 MtC02e) in 2030. Semiconductor Manufacturing 0.88 Energy Waste Industrial Processes Agriculture Global Non-C02 Emissions Semiconductor Manufacturing sector baseline emissions are estimated to be 4.5 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030, emissions are projected to be 4.5 MtC02e, or 0.3% of total non-C02 emissions in the United States. Projected Emissions in 2030 JPk Emissions from the United States and other Major Emitting Countries (MtC02e) Rest of World: 4 MtC02e 3 Semiconductor Manufacturing 0.3% Energy Waste | Industrial Processes Agriculture Other Non-C02 Sources Not Modeled China United States Japan Singapore South Korea ROW ------- Key Points Baseline emissions from semiconductor manufacturing in the United States will remain constant between 2010 and 2030. The U.S. abatement potential is 1 MtC02e in 2013. 10% of the total abatement potential in this sector is achievable at costs at or below$30/tC02ein2013. Abatement Measures Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices. Thermal abatement NF3 remote clean Gas replacement Process optimization I Catalytic abatement Plasma abatement 0.00 0.25 0.50 Reductions achievable at costs less than $0/tCO I Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/t Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030 It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 0.85%, compared with the baseline, in 2030. An additional 19% reduction is available using technologies with increasingly higher costs. Reduction Potential 1% Baseline: 4 MtC02e Residual Emissions Technically Feasible at Increasing Costs Reductions at No Cost Abatement Measures Despite rapid growth between 2000 and 2010, the semiconductor manufacturing industry experienced a stark decline in F-GHG emissions, decreasing from 7 MtCO2e in 2000 to 4.5 MtCO2e in 2010. This decline can be attributed to voluntary emissions reduction goals set by the World Semiconductor Council. Additionally, six abatement technologies were considered to further reduce emissions from this sector: thermal abatement systems, catalytic abatement systems, plasma abatement systems, NF3 remote chamber clean process, gas replacement, and process optimization. Abatement Potential U.S. F-GHG abatement potential in the semiconductor manufacturing industry is estimated to be 1.0 MtCO2e and 0.9 MtCO2e in 2020 and 2030, respectively, which correspond to 23% and 20% of BAU emissions from this sector. In 2030, the abatement potential of 0.1 MtCO2e, or 2%, is achievable at abatement costs below $30 per tCO2e. ------- Electric Power Systems (EPS) SF6 from Electric Power Systems Sector Description Electric power systems (EPSs) use transmission and distribution equipment that contains SFg, a potent GHG with a GWP 23,900 times that of CC>2. Emissions occur through unintentional leaking of equipment and improper handling practices during servicing and disposal. U.S. baseline emissions from this sector were estimated at 12.1 MtCC^e in 2010. Emissions are projected to drop to 10.3 MtCO2e in 2030, a 15% decrease. Emissions Reduction Potential Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the United States' electric power systems sector could be reduced by up to 5.9 MtC02e in 2030. This accounts for 1% of the United States' total reduction potential (569 MtC02e) in 2030. Electric Power Systems 6 Oil & Natural Gas Systems Refrigeration & Air Conditioning Energy Waste Industrial Processes Agriculture Global Non-C02 Emissions Electric Power Systems sector baseline emissions are estimated to be 12 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030, emissions are projected to be 10 MtC02e, or 1% of total non-CO. emissions in the United States. Projected Emissions in 2030 Emissions from the United States and other Major Emitting Countries (MtC02e) Rest of World: 18 MtC02e Electric Power Systems 0.8% Energy Waste | Industrial Processes Agriculture Other Non-C02 Sources Not Modeled China United States India Brazil South Korea ROW ------- Key Points The U.S. abatement potential ranges from 3.7 MtC02e to 5.9 MtC02e in 2030. Abatement measures include technologies and handling practices to manage SFe emissions and prevent leakage during servicing and disposal. The abatement potential at cost-effective break-even prices (SO/tCOae) is projected to reduce baseline sector emissions by 36% in 2030. Abatement Measures Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices. Improved SF6 handling SF6 recycling Equipment refurbishment Leak detection and leak repair 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 Reductions achievable at costs less than $0/tC02e Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tCO e Abatement Measures Abatement measures that reduce emissions in the EPS sector include SFg recycling, leak detection and repair, equipment refurbishment, and improved SFg handling. These new technologies and handling practices have largely been adopted in Europe and Japan. SFg recycling is commonly practiced in the United States, but there remains significant potential for further reductions through improved SFg handling and upgraded or refurbished equipment. Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030 It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 36%, compared with the baseline, in 2030. An additional 22% reduction is available using technologies with increasingly higher costs. Reduction Potential Baseline: 10 MtC02e Residual ] Technically Feasible Emissions at Increasing Costs Reductions at No Cost Abatement Potential U.S. abatement potential in this sector is projected to be 6.4 MtCO2e in 2020 and 5.9 MtCO2e in 2030, which corresponds to 58% of the BAU baseline sector emissions, respectively. Significant reductions are available at relatively low cost. For example, emissions reduction technologies that cost up to $5 per tCO2e, can reduce emissions by 3.7 MtCC^e, accounting for 63% of the technologically feasible emissions reductions in 2030. ------- "^^^^^^W~~^^M Magnesium Production SF6 Emissions from Magnesium Production Sector Description Magnesium manufacturing uses SFg as a cover gas during production and casting to prevent spontaneous combustion of molten magnesium in the presence of air. The use of SFg can result in fugitive emissions during manufacturing processes. Advanced initiatives in the magnesium industry to phase out the use of SFg have resulted in a 60% reduction in SFg emissions from 3 MtCC^e to 1.2 MtCO2e between 2000 and 2010. Emissions Reduction Potential Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the United States' magnesium manufacturing sector could be reduced by up to 0.1 MtC02e in 2030. This accounts for 0.01% of the United States' total reduction potential (569 MtC02e) in 2030. Magnesium Production 0.07 Oil & Natural Gas Systems Refrigeration & Air Conditioning Energy Waste Industrial Processes Agriculture Global Non-C02Emissions Magnesium Production sector baseline emissions are estimated to be 1.2 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030, emissions are projected to be 0.1 MtC02e, or 0.01% of total non-C02 emissions in the United States. Projected Emissions in 2030 Emissions from the United States and other Major Emitting Countries (MtCCLe) Rest of World: 0.10 MtC02e Magnesium Production 0.01% Energy Waste | Industrial Processes Agriculture Other Non-C02 Sources Not Modeled China Russia Kazakhstan Israel United States ROW ------- Key Points The U.S. abatement potential of 98% is achieved through three abatement measures that substitute SFe with alternative gases. From 2010 to 2030, SFg emissions are projected to drop from 1.2 MtCC^e to 0.1 MtC02e. Full abatement potential can be achieved at break-even prices of $5/tC02e or less. Abatement Measures Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices. Alternate cover gas - NovecTM612 Alternate cover gas - HFC-134a Alternate cover gas - S02 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 Reductions achievable at costs less than $0/tC02e Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tCO e Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030 It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 78%, compared with the baseline, in 2030. An additional 20% reduction is available using technologies with increasingly higher costs. Reduction Potential Baseline: 0.1 MtC02e Residual ] Technically Feasible Emissions at Increasing Costs Reductions at No Cost Abatement Measures Three abatement measures are available for reducing SFg emissions in production and processing, all of which involve replacing SFg with an alternative cover gas: sulfur dioxide (SO2), HFC-134a, or Novec 612. Although toxicity, odor, and corrosive properties are a concern of using SC>2 as a cover gas, it can potentially eliminate SFg emissions entirely through improved containment and pollution control systems. HFC-134a, along with other fluorinated gases, contains fewer associated health, odor, and corrosive impacts than SO2, but it does have global warming potential. Novec 612 is currently being used in a diecasting facility, and the replacement of SFg with Novec 612 is under evaluation. Abatement Potential The U.S. abatement potential of SFg emissions in the magnesium sector is 1.1 MtCO2e, approximately 98% of projected sector emissions. The maximum reduction potential for the suite of reduction technologies is 98% of projected emissions in 2030. These reductions can be achieved at a cost of less than $5/tCO2e. ------- Photovoltaic Cell Manufacturing F-GHG Emissions from Photovoltaic Cell Manufacturing Sector Description The photovoltaic (PV) cell manufacturing process often uses multiple F-GHGs during production, some of which are released into the atmosphere. Baseline emissions in 2010 were 0.18 MtCO2e and are expected to increase slightly to 0.19 MtCO2e in2030. Emissions Reduction Potential Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the United States' photovoltaic cell manufacturing sector could be reduced by up to 0.2 MtC02e in 2030. This accounts for 0.03% of the United States' total reduction potential (569 MtC02e) in 2030. Photovoltaic Cell Manufacturing 0.17 Oil & Natural Gas Systems Refrigeration & Air Conditioning Energy Waste Industrial Processes Agriculture Global Non-C02 Emissions Photovoltaic Cell Manufacturing sector baseline emissions are estimated to be 0.2 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030, emissions are projected to be 0.2 MtC02e, or 0.01% of total non-C02 emissions in the United States. Projected Emissions in 2030 Emissions from the United States and other Major Emitting Countries (MtC02e) Rest of World: 0.13 MtC02e \ - Y *r*T Photovoltaic Cell Manufacturing 0.01% Energy Waste | Industrial Processes Agriculture Other Non-C02 Sources Not Modeled China Jaoan United States Germanv Malaysia ROW ------- Key Points The U.S. abatement potential in the PV manufacturing sector is 0.2 MtCOae in 2030. Reduction technologies include technologies that reduce F-GHG emissions through etch and/or chamber cleaning processes. The high costs of emissions reduction technologies combined with low emissions reductions lead to abatement costs greater than $300/tC02e. Abatement Measures Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices. NF3 remote clean Thermal abatement Catalytic abatement Plasma abatement 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 I Reductions achievable at costs less than $0/tC02e I Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tCO,e Abatement Measures Abatement measures considered for reducing F-GHG emissions from the PV manufacturing sector include thermal abatement systems, catalytic abatement systems, plasma abatements systems, and the NF3 remote chamber clean process. These technologies have the potential to reduce emissions from etch and/or chamber clean processes by 90%. Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030 There are no cost effective reductions available in the PV cell manufacturing sector in 2030. However, a 90% reductions are available using technologies with increasingly higher costs. Reduction Potential Baseline: 0.2 MtC02e Residual ] Technically Feasible Emissions at Increasing Costs Reductions at No Cost Abatement Potential The U.S. abatement potential in the PV manufacturing sector is estimated to be 0.17 MtCC^e from 2020 through 2030, or 90% of baseline emissions in each year. High capital costs and low emissions reductions associated with the available abatement measures result in abatement costs greater than $300/tCO2e. ------- Flat Panel Display Manufacturing F-GHG Emissions from Flat Panel Display Manufacturing Sector Description Flat panel display (FPD) manufacturing processes produce F-GHG emissions, including SFg, NF3, and carbon tetrafluoride (CF4). FPD manufacturing industry is located outside the United States. Despite the lack of activity in the United States, this sector remains an important source of international GHG emissions and abatement potential. Emissions Reduction Potential While the United States has no abatement in this sector, globally emissions from this sector can be reduced by approximately 10 MtCC^e. Flat Panel Display Manufacturing 0 V Oil & Natural Gas Systems Refrigeration & Air Conditioning Energy Waste Industrial Processes Agriculture Global Non-C02 Emissions The United States has no emissions associated with Flat Panel Display manufacturing between 2010 and 2030. Projected Emissions in 2030 Emissions from the United States and other Major Emitting Countries (MtC02e) Rest of World: 0.0 MtC02e Flat Panel Display Manufacturing 0% Energy I Waste || Industrial Processes Agriculture Other Non-C02 Sources Not Modeled China South Korea Japan Singapore United States ROW ------- Key Points FDP manufacturing is located outside the United States and is projected to remain outside the United States out to 2030. The United States is projected to have zero emissions in this sector between 2010 and 2030. Six abatement options were analyzed to reduce emissions from etch and/or clean processes. Abatement Measures Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices. Thermal abatement o NF3 remote clean o Catalytic abatement 0 Central abatement system 0 Plasma abatement 0 Gas replacement 0 012345 Reductions achievable at costs less than $0/tC02e I Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tCO,e Abatement Measures Six abatement options were considered for the FPD manufacturing sector: central abatement, thermal abatement, catalytic abatement, plasma abatement, NF3 remote chamber clean, and gas replacement. These systems are applicable to reducing emissions from etch and/or clean processes. Thermal abatement systems represent the largest abatement potential, accounting for 40% of emissions reductions in the FPD manufacturing sector. Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030 The United States has no baseline emissions and subsequently no abatement potential in the flat panel display manufacturing sector. 0% Baseline: 0 MtC02e Residual Emissions Technically Feasible at Increasing Costs Reductions at No Cost Abatement Potential Although the United States has no abatement potential in this sector, there are international opportunities to reduce emissions. Global abatement of F-GHGs in the FPD manufacturing sector is estimated to be 10 MtCC^e in 2030, which equates to an 80% reduction in emissions. ------- jyestoc Emissions from Livestock Operations Sector Description Livestock operations generate CH4 and N2O emissions. The GHG emissions mainly come from two sources: enteric fermentation and manure management. CH4 is produced as a by-product of the digestive process in animals through a microbial fermentation process. Manure N2O emissions result from nitrification and denitrification of the nitrogen that is excreted in manure and urine. U.S. baseline emissions from the livestock sector are estimated to grow from 174.4 to 185.9 MtCO2e from 2010 to 2030. Emissions Reduction Potential Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the United States' livestock sector could be reduced by up to 43 MtC02e in 2030. This accounts for 8% of the United States' total reduction potential (569 MtC02e) in 2030. Oil & Natural Gas Systems Refrigeration & Air Conditioning Livestock 43 Energy Waste Industrial Processes Agriculture Global Non-C02 Emissions Livestock sector baseline emissions are estimated to be 174 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030, emissions are projected to be 186 MtC02e, or 14% of total non-CO. emissions in the United States. Projected Emissions in 2030 Livestock 14% Emissions from the United States and other Major Emitting Countries (MtCO e) Rest of World: 1,553 MtC02e 186 122 246 Energy Waste | Industrial | Agriculture Processes Other Non-C02 Sources Not Modeled India China Brazil United States Pakistan ROW ------- Key Points The livestock sector accounts for 14% of baseline non-COa emissions in the United States in 2030. The largest low-cost reductions in emissions resulted from implementing strategies to improve feed conversion efficiency, incorporating feed supplements, and increasing the use of large-scale complete mix anaerobic digesters. The technologically feasible abatement potential of the livestock sector is 43.2 MtC02e in 2030, or 23% of baseline sector emissions. Abatement Measures Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices. Propionate precursors Antimethanogen Improved feed conversion Large-scale complete mix digester with engine Large-scale covered lagoon with engine Large-scale complete mix digester without engine Large-scale covered lagoon without engine Intensive grazing Large-scale fixed-film digester with engine Large-scale fixed-film digester without engine Antibiotics Other measures 0123456 I Reductions achievable at costs less than $0/tC02e Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tC02e Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030 It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 2%, compared with the baseline, in 2030. An additional 21% reduction is available using technologies with increasingly higher costs. Reduction Potential Baseline: 186 MtC02e Residual Emissions Abatement Measures The report considered six enteric fer- mentation (CH4) abatement measures: improved feed conversion efficiency, antibiotics, bovine somatrotropin, propionate precursors, antimethano- gen vaccines, and intensive pasture management. It also included two ma- nure management (N2O) abatement measures: small and large digesters (complete-mix, plug-flow, fixed film) and covered lagoons. The largest re- ductions resulted from implementing antimethanogen vaccines, propionate precursors, and large-scale complete- mix digesters. Abatement Potential Technologically feasible U.S. abatement potential for the livestock sector was estimated at 43.2 MtCC^e in 2030, a 23% reduction compared with the sector baseline. In 2030, a reduction of 4.1 MtCC^e is cost- effective under current projections and 15.5 MtCO2e would be possible at an abatement cost of $30/tCC>2e. Technically Feasible at Increasing Costs Reductions at No Cost ------- sum Methane (CH4) and Nitrous Oxide (N20) Emissions from Rice Cultivation Sector Description Rice cultivation results in CH4 and N2O emissions, and changes in soil organic C stocks. When paddy fields are flooded, decomposition of organic material depletes the oxygen in the soil and floodwater, causing anaerobic conditions. Human activities influence soil N2O emissions (use of fertilizers and other crop management practices) and soil C stocks (residue and crop yield management). The United States ranks as the 11th largest emitter of GHG emissions from rice cultivation. Baseline emissions from the rice cultivation sector in the United States are projected to grow from 5.7 to 8.8 MtCO2e from 2010 to 2030. Emissions Reduction Potential Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the United States' rice sector could be reduced by up to 3 MtC02e in 2030. This accounts for 1% of the United States' total reduction potential (569 MtC02e) in 2030. Refrigeration & Air Conditioning Energy Waste Industrial Processes Agriculture Global Non-C02 Emissions Rice sector baseline emissions are estimated to be 6 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030, emissions are projected to be 9 MtC02e, or 1% of total non-C02 emissions in the United States. Projected Emissions in 2030 Emissions from the United States and other Major Emitting Countries (MtCO e) Rest of World: 244 MtC02e Energy Waste | Industrial Processes Agriculture Other Non-C02 Sources Not Modeled India Bangladesh Indonesia China United States ROW LI'l ------- Key Points The rice cultivation sector accounts for 1% of baseline non-COa emissions in the United States in 2030. Among the abatement measures evaluated, switching from continuous flooding to mid-season drainage with residue utilization and implementation of no tillage practices provides the largest emission reductions in the United States. The technologically feasible reduction potential of the rice cultivation sector is 3.0 MtCt^e in 2030,35% of baseline sector emissions. Abatement Measures Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices. Switch from CFto mid-season drainage with 50% residue Continuous flooding with 50% residue incorporation and 20% reduced fertilizer usage Switch from CFto alternate wet/dry with 50% residue incorporation and use of nitrogen inhibitors Continuous flooding with 50% residue incorporation; 20% reduced fertilizer usage; and dry seeding Switch from CFtoalternate wet/dry with 50% residue incorporation Other measures 0.05 0.13 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 Reductions achievable at costs less than $0/tC02e Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tC02e Abatement Measures Five types of abatement measures were considered: paddy flooding (continuous, midseason, alternating, dry), crop residue incorporation (50% and 100%), tillage (conventional and no till), fertilization application (conventional, ammonium sulfate, nitrification inhibitor, slow release, reduced use, auto fertilization), and direct seeding. Switching continuous flooding to mid-season drainage in combination with 50% residue incorporation and adopting no-tillage practices in rice cultivation provide the largest emissions reductions but may also lower rice yields to some degree. Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030 It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 8%, compared with the baseline, in 2030. An additional 26% reduction is available using technologies with increasingly higher costs. Reduction Potential 26% 8% Baseline: 9 MtC02e Residual Emissions Technically Feasible at Increasing Costs Reductions at No Cost Abatement Potential Technologically feasible U.S. abatement potential for the rice cultivation sector was estimated at 3.3 MtCO2e in 2020 and 3.0 MtCO2e in 2030, 39% and 35% reductions compared with the sector baseline. In 2030, a reduction of 0.7 MtCO2e at an abatement cost of $0/tCO2e and 1.7 MtCO2e would be possible at a cost of $30/tCO2e. ------- Non-rice Croplands Sector Description Land management in croplands influences soil N2O emissions (influenced by fertilization practices, soil drainage, and nitrogen mineralization), H4 fluxes, and soil organic carbon (C) stocks (and associated CO2 fluxes to the atmosphere). The report considers only major crops (barley, maize, sorghum, soybeans, and wheat) and minor crops closely related to these (rye, lentils, other beans, and oats). U.S. baseline emissions from the croplands sector in 2010 were estimated at 82.1 MtCO2e. Projected emissions are relatively constant, decreasing to approximately 71.3 MtCO2e in 2020 and rebounding to 86.1 MtCO2e by 2030. Emissions Reduction Potential Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the United States' soil sector could be reduced by up to 11 MtC02e in 2030. This accounts for 2% of the United States' total reduction potential (569 MtC02e) in 2030. Croplands 11 Refrigeration & Air Conditioning Energy Waste Industrial Processes Agriculture Global Non-CO, Emissions Croplands sector baseline emissions are estimated to be 82 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030, emissions are projected to be 86 MtC02e, or 6% of total non-C00 emissions in the United States. Projected Emissions in 2030 Croplands 6% Emissions from the United States and other Major Emitting Countries (MtCO e) Rest of World: 168 MtC02e 4. W Energy Waste Industrial Processes Agriculture Other Non-C02 Sources Not Modeled China United States India Brazil Argentina ROW ------- Key Points The U.S. emission reduction potential of the croplands sector is 10.9 MtCOae in 2030, 13% of baseline sector emissions. Seven abatement options were analyzed to reduce soil management emissions. 86% of potential reductions in the United States are achievable by implementing no-till cultivation and reducing fertilizer applications. Abatement Measures Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices. No tillage 20% reduced fertilizer use Use nitrogen inhibitors Split fertilizer I 100% residue incorporation 20% increase in fertilizer use 012345 Reductions achievable at costs less than $0/tC02e Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tC02e Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030 It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 6%, compared with the baseline, in 2030. An additional 6.6% reduction is available using technologies with increasingly higher costs. Reduction Potential Baseline: 86 MtC02e Residual Emissions Technically Feasible at Increasing Costs Reductions at No Cost Abatement Measures Six abatement measures were considered for the cropland sector: adoption of no-till cultivation, reduced fertilizer application, increased fertilizer application, split nitrogen fertilization, application of nitrification inhibitors, and crop residue incorporation. In 2030, the majority of reductions result from implementing no-till cultivation (50% of total abatement). Additional reductions can be achieved by reducing fertilizer usage and adopting nitrification inhibitors. Abatement Potential Technologically feasible U.S. abatement potential in the croplands sector is estimated to be 14.5 MtCO2e in 2020 and 10.9 MtCO2e in 2030, representing 20% and 13% reductions compared with the sector baseline. In 2030, abatement measures that break even (i.e., <$0/ tCC>2e) can reduce 5.5 MtCC^e in cropland emissions. Additional reductions are achievable when including more costly abatement measures. For example, the level of reduced emissions increases to 8.7 MtCO2e when including abatement measures at break-even prices less than or equal to $30/tCC>2e. ------- ^ QC 03 W s It- ^ a o o » 0 Q. ^ 0 W m o o o an 0 o' Tl ^ 0 CQ 3 i -^ o ^ 0 i »- Tl S 8 o 35- c_ ^ CQ 0 O m ^ ------- |