&EPA
United States Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Atmospheric Programs (6207J)
Washington, DC 20005
EPA-430-S1-4-002
April 2014
Mitigation of Non-C02 Greenhouse Gases
in the United States: 2010 to 2030
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Table of Contents
Introduction 2
Energy
Coal Mining 4
Oil and Natural Gas Systems 6
Waste
Landfills 8
Wastewater 10
Industrial Processes
Nitric and Adipic Acid Production 12
Refrigeration and Air Conditioning 14
Solvents 16
Foams Manufacturing, Use, and Disposal 18
Aerosols 20
Fire Protection 22
Aluminum Production 24
HCFC-22 Production 26
Semiconductor Manufacturing 28
Electric Power Systems 30
Magnesium Production 32
Photovoltaic Cell Manufacturing 34
Flat Panel Display Manufacturing 36
Agriculture
Livestock 38
Rice Cultivation 40
Croplands 42
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Introduction
Climate change is influenced by a number of social and
environmental factors. The change in the Earth's climate
is largely driven by emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs)
to the atmosphere. Although some GHG emissions occur
through natural processes, the largest share of GHG
emissions come from human activities. GHG emissions from
anthropogenic sources have increased significantly over a
relatively short time frame (-100 years) and are projected to
grow appreciably over the next 20 years.
Policy development and planning efforts are underway at
all levels of society to identify climate change strategies
that effectively reduce future GHG emissions and prepare
communities to adapt to the Earth's changing climate. GHG
mitigation analysis continues to play an important role in
forming climate change policy. A large body of research has
been dedicated to analyzing ways to reduce carbon dioxide
(CC>2) emissions.
Although this work is critical to developing effective climate
policy, other GHGs can play an important role in the effort
to address global climate change. These noncarbon dioxide
(non-CC>2) GHGs include methane (CH4), nitrous oxide
(N2O), and a number of industrial gases such as fluorinated
gases.
Non-CO2 GHGs are more potent than CO2 (per unit
weight) at trapping heat within the atmosphere. Global
warming potential (GWP) is the factor that quantifies the
heat-trapping potential of each GHG relative to that of CC>2.
For example, CH4 has a GWP value of 21, which means that
each molecule of CH4 released into the atmosphere is 21
times more effective at trapping heat than an equivalent unit
of CO2. The table shows the list of GHGs with their GWP
values that are considered in this report.
Marginal abatement cost curves (MACC) are an analytical
tool commonly used in mitigation analysis to assist policy
makers in understanding the opportunities for reducing
GHG emissions and the relative cost of implementing
these opportunities. MACCs provide information on
the amount of emissions reductions that can be achieved
and an estimate of the costs of implementing the GHG
abatement measures. This figure shows the MACC for
all non-CO2 GHGs in the United States in 2030. The
potential for cost-effective non-CO2 GHG abatement
is significant. The figure shows the U.S. total aggregate
MACC for the year 2030. The U.S. total mitigation
potential is 569 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent
(MtCC^e), or 43% of baseline non-CO2 emissions in
2030, or 11% of the total net U.S. GHG emissions
in 2005. As the break-even price rises, the mitigation
potential grows. Significant mitigation opportunities
could be realized in the lower range of break-even
prices. For example, the mitigation potential at a price
of $10/tCO2e is greater than 360 MtCO2e, or 27% of
the baseline emissions, and greater than 417 MtCO2e
or 31% of the baseline emissions at $20/tCO2e. In the
higher range of break-even prices, the MAC becomes
steeper, and less mitigation potential exists for each
additional increase in price.
As the figure shows, higher levels of emissions reductions
are achievable at higher abatement costs expressed in
dollars per metric ton of CO2 equivalent (S/tCC^e)
reduced. The quantity of emissions that can be reduced,
or the abatement potential, is constrained by the
availability and effectiveness of the abatement measures
(emissions reduction technologies).
Greenhouse Gases
Carbon Dioxide
Methane
Nitrous Oxide
Hydrofluorocarbons
Sulfur Hexafluoride
Abbreviation
C02
CH4
N20
MFCs
SF6
GWP*
(100 year)
1
21
310
140 to 11,700
23,900
*GWP values from IPCC 4th Assessment Report (AR4)
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United States MACC for Non-C02 Greenhouse Gases in 2030
Non-C02 Reductions (MtC02e)
About this Report
This report highlights the United States' mitigation potential from non-C02 emitting sectors. These results come
from a broader study that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recently completed. The study
served to update the agency's international MACC model for the major anthropogenic sources of non-C02 GHG
emissions, which include the energy, waste, industrial, and agricultural sectors. EPA used the model to conduct
a follow-on study to the 2006 EPA report Global Mitigation of Non-C02 Greenhouse Gases. The updated model
includes improved spatial resolution (country level rather than broad regions), updated data and parameters,
and increased transparency in the economic and technological assumptions underlying the abatement measures
considered in the analysis. A detailed methodological description and the full results of this analysis are published
in the EPA report Global Mitigation of Non-C02 Greenhouse Gases: 2010-2030. This summary report focuses
on the United States, providing a brief overview of the abatement potential and costs of implementing specific
abatement technologies nationally. Readers interested in more technical details of the analysis should refer to the
full technical report, which is available at EPA's web page on International Non-C02 Mitigation.1
!The Global Mitigation of Non-C02 Greenhouse Gases: 2010-2030 report is available at:
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/EPAactivities/economics/nonco2mitigation.html
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CH4 Emissions from Underground Coal Mining
Sector Description
Coal is an important energy source
for many of the world's economies; it
is used for energy generation or as a
feedstock for industrial production.
However, coal mining is a significant
source of anthropogenic GHG
emissions. Extracting coal through
underground and surface mining
releases CH4 stored in the coal bed and
the surrounding geology.
Emissions Reduction Potential
Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the
United States' coal mining sector could be reduced by up to 34.5 MtC02e in 2030.
This accounts for 6% of the United States' total reduction potential (569 MtCC^e)
in global reduction potential in 2030.
Coal Mining
35
Oil & Natural
Gas Systems
Refrigeration &
Air Conditioning
Energy I Waste lndustnal Agriculture
Processes
Global Non-C02 Emissions
Coal Mining sector baseline emissions are estimated
to be 67 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030, emissions are
projected to be 78 MtC02e, or 6% of total non-C02
emissions in the United States.
Coal Mining
6%
Projected Emissions in 2030
Emissions from the United States and other Major Emitting Countries (MtCO e)
Rest of World: 151 MtC02e
51
-;/
31
37
Energy
Waste
| Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Other Non-C02
Sources Not Modeled
China United States Russia Australia Ukraine ROW
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Key Points
Coal mining accounted for 9% of total U.S. anthropogenic CH4 emissions in 2010;
these emissions are projected to increase by 16% to 78 MtCOae by 2030.
The U.S. abatement potential is projected to be 35 MtC02e, or 44% of baseline
emissions from coal mining, in 2030.
Cost-effective abatement potential ($0 break-even price) is 5 Mtt^e, or 6% of
baseline.
Abatement Measures
Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices.
VAM oxidation
Degasification for
pipeline injection
Degasification for
power generation
Open flare
On-site use in coal drying
On-site use in mine boiler
0 5 10 15 20 25
Reductions achievable at costs less than $0/tC02e
Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tC02e
Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030
It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 6%, compared with the
baseline, in 2030. An additional 38% reduction is available using
technologies with increasingly higher costs.
Reduction Potential
30
38%
Baseline: 78 MtC02e
Residual
Emissions
Technically Feasible
at Increasing Costs
Reductions at
No Cost
Abatement Measures
Five abatement measures were
considered in this analysis: recovery
for pipeline injection, power
generation, process heating, flaring,
and catalytic or thermal oxidation
of ventilation air methane (VAM).
These reduction technologies consist
of one or more of the following
primary components: (1) a drainage
and recovery system to remove CH4
from the underground coal seam,
(2) the end-use application for the
gas recovered from the drainage
system, and (3) the VAM recovery or
mitigation system.
Abatement Potential
Approximately 44% of total annual
coal mining related CH4 emissions
in 2030 can be reduced by adopting
the suite of abatement measures
considered. The MACC results
suggest that significant reductions
in CH4 emissions can be achieved at
break-even prices at or below
$10/tCO2e. Nearly 5 MtCO2e are
cost-effectively achievable at a break-
even price of $0/tCO2e.
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Oil and Natural Gas
CH4 Emissions from Oil and Natural Gas Systems
Sector Description
Oil and natural gas systems are one of
the leading emitters of anthropogenic
CH4, releasing over 140 MtCO2e, or
23% of total U.S. CH4 emissions in
2010. CH4 emissions from the oil and
natural gas system are projected to
grow 26% between 2010 and 2030.
Future growth is largely due to the
continued expansion of domestic oil
and natural gas production in the
United States.
Emissions Reduction Potential
Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the
United States' oil and natural gas systems sector could be reduced by up to 140
MtC02e in 2030. This accounts for 25% of the United States' total reduction
potential (569 MtC02e) in 2030.
Oil & Natural
Gas Syster-
Oil & Natural
Gas Systems
140
Refrigeration &
Air Conditioning
Livestock
Energy
Waste
Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Global Non-C02 Emissions
Oil and Natural Gas sector baseline emissions are
estimated to be 248 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030,
emissions are projected to be 313 MtC02e, or 23%
of total non-C02 emissions.
Oil & Natural Gas Systems
23%
Projected Emissions in 2030
Emissions from the United States and other Major Emitting Countries (MtCO e)
Rest of World: 971 MtC02e
313
188
107
116
Energy | Waste
| Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Other Non-C02
Sources Not Modeled
Russia United States Iraq Kuwait Uzbekistan ROW
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Key Points
The technological maximum for emissions reduction potential in oil and natural gas
systems in the United States is 141 MtCOae, approximately 45% of projected oil and
gas related CH4 emissions in 2030.
Because of the energy value of the ChU captured, EPA estimates that 84 MtCQae, or
27% of the baseline emissions, can be cost-effectively reduced.
Over 45% of abatement potential is achieved by adopting abatement measures in
the oil and gas production segments.
Abatement Measures
Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices.
Installing plunger lift systems in gas wells
Directed inspection & maintenance
Installing catalytic converters on gas
engines and turbines
Fuel gas retrofit for BD valve - take recip.
compressors offline *
Replacing wet seals with dry seals in
centrifugal compressors
Installing surge vessels for capturing
blowdown vents
Reciprocating compressor rod packing
(Static-Pac)
Installing flash tank separators on dehydrators
Replacing high-bleed pneumatic devices in the
natural gas industry
Reduce emission completions for hydraulically
fractured natural gas wells
Other measures
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Reductions achievable at costs less than $0/tC02e
Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tCO e
Abatement Measures
Numerous abatement measures are
available to mitigate CH4 emissions
across the four oil and natural gas
system segments of production,
processing, transmission, and
distribution. The measures can be
applied to various components or
equipment commonly used in oil
and natural gas system segments.
The abetment measures typically
fall into three categories: equipment
modifications/upgrades; changes
in operational practices, including
direct inspection and maintenance;
and installation of new equipment.
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Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030
It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 27%, compared with the
baseline, in 2030. An additional 18% reduction is available using
technologies with increasingly higher costs.
Reduction Potential
18%
27%
Baseline: 313 MtC02e
Residual
Emissions
Technically Feasible
at Increasing Costs
Reductions at
No Cost
Abatement Potential
In 2030, the abatement potential in
the U.S. oil and natural gas systems
sector is projected to be 140.6
MtCC>2e, or 45% of total non-CC>2
emissions. The abatement potential
drops over time to 126 MtCC^e
in 2020 before rising back to 140
MtCO2e in 2030. Over 70% of the
emissions reductions in 2030 are
achievable at prices at or below $15.
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CH4 Emissions from Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) Landfills
Sector Description
Landfills produce CH4 in
combination with other landfill gases
(LFGs) through the natural process
of bacterial decomposition of organic
waste under anaerobic conditions.
LFG is generated over a period of
several decades with gas flows usually
beginning 1 to 2 years after the
waste is put in place. The amount
of CH4 generated by landfills per
country is determined by a number
of factors that include population
size, the quantity of waste disposed
of per capita, composition of the
waste disposed of, and the waste
management practices applied at the
landfill.
Emissions Reduction Potential
Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the
United States' landfill sector could be reduced by up to 14.6 MtC02e in 2030.
This accounts for 3% of the United States' total reduction potential
(569 MtC02e) in 2030.
Landfills
15
Oil & Natural
Gas Systems
Refrigeration &
Air Conditioning
Energy
Waste
Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Global Non-C02Emissions
Landfill sector baseline emissions are estimated to
be 130 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030, emissions are
projected to be 128 MtC02e, or 10% of total
non-CO. emissions in the United States.
Projected Emissions in 2030
Landfills
10%
Emissions from the United States and other Major Emitting Countries (MtCO e)
Rest of World: 632 MtC02e
40
Energy
Waste
| Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Other Non-C02
Sources Not Modeled
United States Mexico China Russia Malaysia ROW
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Key Points
Abatement potential from U.S. landfills is 15 MtCC^e, roughly 11% of projected
landfill baseline emissions in 2030.
Abatement measures with costs below $20/tC02e can achieve a 9% reduction in
baseline emissions.
Abatement measures include (1) conversion of landfill gas to energy and (2) waste
diversion projects that use waste in the production of new products.
Abatement Measures
Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices.
Electricity generation with
reciprocating engine
Flaring of landfill gas
Landfill gas recovery for direct use
Electricity generation with CHP
Electricity generation with gas turbine
Electricity generation with microturbine
Anaerobic digestion
Enhanced oxidation
Waste to energy (WTE)
Pa per recycling
Mechanical biological treatment (MBT)
Composting
0123456
I Reductions achievable at costs less than $0/tC02e
1 Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tC02e
Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030
It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 1.3%, compared to the
baseline, in 2030. An additional 10% reduction is available using
technologies with increasingly higher costs.
Reduction Potential
1%
Baseline: 128 MtC02e
Residual
Emissions
Technically Feasible
at Increasing Costs
Reductions at
No Cost
Several abatement measures are
available to control landfill CH4
emissions, and they are commonly
grouped into three major categoric
(1) collection and flaring, (2) LFG
utilization systems (LFG capture fc
energy use), and (3) enhanced wasi
diversion practices (e.g., recycling a
reuse programs). Although flaring L
currently the most common abatement
measure, LFG utilization options may
be more cost-effective. Under favorable
market conditions, recycling and
reuse or composting alternatives mr
provide additional means for reduc
emissions from landfills.
Abatement Potential
Abatement potential in the solid
waste landfill sector is estimated to
approximately 14.6 MtCC^e of tot
annual emissions in 2030, or 11% <
U.S. landfill baseline emissions. Thi
MACC results suggest that there ar
significant opportunities for CH4
reductions in the landfill sector at cost:
below $20 per tCC^e of emissions
reduced. Furthermore, approximate
1.7 MtCO2e of reductions are cost-
effective.
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Wastewater
CH4 Emissions from Municipal Wastewater Systems
Sector Description
Wastewater is the sixth largest emitter of
anthropogenic CH4 in the United States,
accounting for 25 MtCO2e in 2010;
wastewater treatment is also a source of
N2O emissions. Domestic and industrial
wastewater treatment activities can lead
to venting and fugitive emissions of CH4,
which are produced when organic material
decomposes under anaerobic conditions
of wastewater in a facility. Developed
countries like the United States use aerobic
wastewater treatment systems to minimize
the amount of CH4 generated.
Emissions Reduction Potential
Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the
United States' wastewater sector could be reduced by up to 14 MtC02e in 2030.
This accounts for 3% of the United States' total reduction potential
(569 MtC02e) in 2030.
Oil & Natural
Gas Systems
Wastewater
14
Refrigeration &
Air Conditioning
Energy
Waste
Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Global Non-C02 Emissions
Wastewater sector baseline emissions are estimated
to be 25 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030, emissions are
projected to be 30 MtC02e, or 2% of total
non-CO. emissions in the United States.
Wastewater
2%
Projected Emissions in 2030
Emissions from the United States and other Major Emitting Countries (MtCO e)
Rest of World: 252 MtC02e
r
78
Energy
Waste H Industrial | Agriculture
Processes
Other Non-C02
Sources Not Modeled
China Nigeria Mexico India United States ROW
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Key Points
U.S. CH4 emissions from wastewater treatment accounted for 25 MtCChe in 2010 a
are projected to grow 20% by 2030.
The estimated maximum abatement potential in 2030 is 14 MtCC^e, or 48% of
projected wastewater emissions.
Given the existing level of wastewater treatment infrastructure present in the Unil
States, options for reducing emissions in this sector are limited to the highest cos
abatement measures.
Abatement Measures
Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices.
Septic tank to aerobic WWTP
Wastewater treatment plant with
anaerobic sludge digester with co-gen
Latrine to aerobic WWTP
Open sewer to aerobic WWTP
I
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Reductions achievable at costs less than $0/tC02e
Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tCO,e
Abatement Measun
CH4 emissions from wastewater ca
be significantly reduced by improvi
infrastructure and equipment.
Abatement measures available in tb
wastewater sector include installing
aerobic wastewater treatment plant
on an individual or centralized seal
and installing anaerobic wastewatei
treatment plants with cogeneration
Factors such as economic resources
population density, government, ar
technical capabilities are important
mitigating emissions from the
wastewater sector.
Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030
There are no cost-effective reductions available in the wastewater sector
in 2030. However, a 48% reduction is available using technologies with
increasingly higher costs.
Reduction Potential
Baseline: 30 MtC02e
Residual |
Emissions
Technically Feasible
at Increasing Costs
Reductions at
No Cost
Abatement Potential
The U.S. abatement potential of
CH4 from wastewater treatment is
10 MtCO2e in 2020 rising to 14
MtCO2e in 2030. This level of CH
mitigation is considered to be the
technological maximum abatement
potential because high-cost abatem
measures in the wastewater treatme
sector significantly constrain the
abatement achievable at lower carK
prices.
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Nitric and Adipic Acid Production
N20 Emissions from Nitric and Adipic Acid Production
Sector Description
Nitric and adipic acid are commonly
used as feedstock in manufacturing
a variety of commercial products,
particularly fertilizer and synthetic
fibers. The process used to produce
nitric and adipic acid generates
significant quantities of N2O as a
by-product. The production of nitric
and adipic acid is expected to increase
over time, driven by continued growth
in demand for fertilizer and synthetic
fibers.
Emissions Reduction Potential
Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the
United States' nitric and adipic acid production sector could be reduced by
up to 27 MtC02e in 2030. This accounts for 5% of the United States' total
reduction potential (569 MtC02e) in 2030.
Nitric and
Adipic Acid
Production
27
Oil & Natural
Gas Systems
Refrigeration &
Air Conditioning
Energy
Waste
Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Global Non-C02 Emissions
Nitric and Adipic Acid Production sector baseline
emissions are estimated to be 29 MtC02e in 2010.
In 2030, emissions are projected to be 37 MtC02e,
or 3% of total non-CO emissions in
the United States.
Projected Emissions in 2030
Emissions from the United States and other Major Emitting Countries (MtC02e)
Rest of World: 57 MtC02e
Nitric & Adipic
Acid
Production
3%
~
Energy
Waste
| Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Other Non-C02
Sources Not Modeled
United States South Korea Brazil China Ukraine ROW
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Key Points
The U.S. abatement potential is 27 MtCOje, or 72% of projected nitric and ad
acid production related emissions in 2030.
A 55% reduction in emissions is achievable at carbon prices below $20.
Abatement measure selection is driven by facility design constraints and/or
operating costs.
Abatement Measures
Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices.
Tail-gas catalytic decomposition
Non-selective catalytic reduction
Catalytic decomposition in the burner
Homogeneous decomposition
in the burner
Thermal destruction
1234567
Reductions achievable at costs less than $0/tC02e
Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tCO,e
Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030
There are no cost-effective reductions available in the nitric and adipic acid
production sector in 2030. However, a 72% reduction is available using
technologies with increasingly higher costs.
Reduction Potential
Baseline: 37 MtC02e
Residual | Technically Feasible
Emissions at Increasing Costs
Reductions at
No Cost
Abatement Measures
N2O emissions can be mitigated
through a number of alternative
abatement measures. In nitric acid
production, reduction technologies
are categorized by their location in
the production process. Secondary
reduction technologies, such as
homogeneous thermal decomposition
and catalytic decomposition, are
installed at an intermediate point
in the production process. Tertiary
reduction technologies, such
as catalytic decomposition and
nonselective catalytic reduction
units, are applied to the tail gas
streams at the end of the production
process. The implementation of one
technology over another is driven
largely by facility design constraints
and/or cost considerations. Thermal
destruction is the single abatement
measure considered in this analysis.
Abatement Potential
The U.S. abatement potential in
the nitric and adipic acid sector is
approximately 27 MtCC^e of total
annual emissions in 2030, or 72%
of projected baseline emissions from
this sector. The MACC results show
that maximum reduction potential is
achievable at break-even prices below
$50/tCO2e.
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Refrigeration and Air Conditioning
HFC Emissions from Refrigeration and Air Conditioning Systems
Sector Description
Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) used
in refrigeration and air conditioning
(AC) systems are emitted to the
atmosphere during equipment
operation, repair, and disposal, unless
recovered, recycled, and ultimately
destroyed. Equipment is being
retrofitted or replaced to use HFCs
that are substitutes for ozone-depleting
substances. Some of the most common
HFCs are HFC-134a, R-404A,
R-410A, R-407C, and R-507A.
Emissions Reduction Potential
Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the
United States' refrigeration & air conditioning sector could be reduced by up to
243 MtC02e in 2030. This accounts for 43% of the United States'
total reduction potential (569 MtC02e) in 2030.
V «
Oil & Natural
Gas Systems
Refrigeration &
Air Conditioning
243
Refrigeration &
Air Conditioning
Energy
Waste
Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Global Non-C02 Emissions
Refrigeration & Air Conditioning sector baseline
emissions are estimated to be 114 MtC02e in 2010.
In 2030, emissions are projected to be 317
MtC02e, or 24% of total non-C02 emissions
in the United States.
Projected Emissions in 2030
Emissions from the United States and other Major Emitting Countries (MtC02e)
Rest of World: 527 MtC02e
Refrigeration &
Air Conditioning
24%
Energy
Waste
| Industrial
Processes
Agriculture Other Non-C02
Sources Not Modeled
China United States South Korea Russia Jaoan ROW
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Key Points
.edis243MtC02e,or77%of
The U.S. abatement potentia. .. M|^v,^..- *,«., *..., ...«..... ^, . ..,~ .
projected emissions from this sector in 2030.
43% of the baseline 2030 emissions can be abated using cost-effective mitigation
measures ($0 pertCl^e).
This sector is the second largest source of non-C02 abatement potential in the
United States, accounting for 24% of total abatement potential across all non-CC^
emitting sectors in 2030.
Abatement Measures
Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices.
R-410A to R-32 for unitary AC
R-32 with MCHX in New Unitary AC Equipment
Refrigerant recovery at disposal for existing
refrigeration/AC equipment
Enhanced HFO-1234yf in motor vehicle
air-conditioners
HFC secondary loop in large retail food
C02 transcritical system in large retail food
HFO-1234yf in motor vehicle air-conditioners
MicroChannel heat exchangers (MCHX)
in new equipment
Distributed systems in large retail food
Refrigerant recovery at servicing for existing
small equipment
NH3 secondary loop in large retail food
Leak Repair for Existing Large Equipment
NH3 and C02 in cold storage and industrial
process refrigeration (IPR) '
Other measures |
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
I Reductions achievable at costs less than $0/tC02e
I Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tCO e
Abatement Measures
HFC abatement measures are
categorized into three categories:
(1) retrofit of existing systems to
use lower-GWP refrigerants; (2)
new cooling systems that use lower-
GWP refrigerants and/or reduce the
charge size; and (3) better refrigerant
management practices that reduce
emissions during use, servicing,
and disposal. Such options are
analyzed for end uses such as retail
food refrigeration systems, window
and unitary AC equipment, motor
vehicle AC systems, and other types
of cooling systems.
Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030
It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 43%, compared with the
baseline, in 2030. An additional 34% reduction is available using
technologies with increasingly higher costs.
Reduction Potential
Baseline: 317 MtC02e
Residual | Technically Feasible
Emissions at Increasing Costs
Reductions at
No Cost
Abatement Potential
The U.S. abatement potential from
refrigeration and AC abatement is
calculated to be 243 MtCO2e in
2030, or 77% of baseline emissions
from this sector; additional
uncalculated options are explored
qualitatively. The MACC results
show that 138 MtCO2e, or 43%
of 2030 emissions, can be reduced
at a cost of $0 by implementing
"no-regret" options. All abatement
options quantified are achievable at
mitigation costs below $100/tCO2e.
-------
vent
HFC Emissions from Solvent Use
Sector Description
HFC solvents are primarily used in
precision cleaning applications and
electronic cleaning applications.
Precision cleaning requires a high level
of cleanliness to ensure the satisfactory
performance of the product being
cleaned, and electronics cleaning is
defined as a process that removes
contaminants, primarily solder flux
residues, from electronics or circuit
boards. It is assumed that eventually
approximately 90% of the solvent
consumed in a given year is emitted,
while 10% of the solvent is disposed
of with the sludge that remains.
Emissions Reduction Potential
Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the
United States' solvent use sector could be reduced by up to 1.3 MtC02e in 2030.
This accounts for 0.23% of the United States' total reduction potential (569
MtC02e) in 2030.
p m
>
Oil & Natural
Gas Systems
Refrigeration &
Air Conditioning
Energy
Waste
Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Global Non-C02Emissions
Solvents sector baseline emissions are estimated to
be 1.3 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030, emissions are
projected to be 2 MtC02e, or 0.1% of total
non-C02 emissions in the United States.
Solvents
0.1%
Projected Emissions in 2030
Emissions from the United States and other Major Emitting Countries (MtCCLe)
Rest of World: 2.7 MtC02e
Energy
Waste
| Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Other Non-C02
Sources Not Modeled
China United States Japan Russia South Korea ROW
-------
Key Points
Emissions from the solvents sector are expected to grow by 50%, growing from 1.3
to 1.9 MtC02e between 2010 and 2030.
The maximum abatement potential in the solvents sector from the options analyzed
is estimated to be 1.3 MtCOae, or 66% of the projected sector baseline in 2030.
In 2030,1.1 MtCOae of emissions reductions are cost-effective (i.e., $0/tC02e or
lower break-even prices).
Abatement Measures
Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices.
Substitute HFE solvents for
HFC-4310mee
Replace HFC cleaning system with NIK
aqueous cleaning system
Replace HFC cleaning system with NIK
Semi-aqueous cleaning system
Retrofit existing equipment
I
I
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.
Reductions achievable at costs less than $0/tC02e
1 Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tCO e
Abatement Measures
Four abatement options were
identified for the solvent sector:
(1) replacement of HFCs with HFEs,
(2) retrofitting of vapor degreaser
equipment to reduce emissions,
(3) transition to not-in-kind (NIK)
aqueous cleaning, and (4) transition
to NIK semi-aqueous cleaning.
These technologies have reduction
efficiencies of between 50% and
100%. Retrofitting equipment and
controls is limited to facilities that
have not already been retrofitted.
Transition to NIK aqueous and NIK
semi-aqueous applicability is limited
to some electronic cleaning processes.
Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030
It would be cost effective to reduce emissions by 55%, compared with the
baseline, in 2030. An additional 11% reduction is available using
technologies with increasingly higher costs.
Reduction Potential
Baseline: 2 MtC02e
Residual
Emissions
J Technically Feasible
at Increasing Costs
Reductions at
No Cost
Abatement Potential
The U.S. abatement potential in
2020 and 2030 is 0.8 and 1.3
MtCC>2e, respectively. In 2030,
reduction of 1.1 MtCO2e , or 55%,
of total projected sector emissions, is
achievable at mitigation costs below
$0/tCO2e. Additional abatement
of approximately 0.2 MtCC^e is
achievable at mitigation costs greater
than $50/tCO2e.
-------
Foams
HFC Emissions from Foams Manufacturing, Use, and Disposal
Sector Description
Foam is used as insulation in a wide
range of equipment, structures, and
other common products. Foams
were historically produced with
ozone-depleting substances (ODSs),
which have been phased out under
the Montreal Protocol in developed
countries and are being phased out
in developing countries. In some end
uses, HFC blowing agents have largely
replaced ODSs. HFC emissions from
the foams sector were approximately
6.1 MtCO2e in 2010 and are
projected to increase substantially to
16.5 MtCO2e and 30.5 MtCO2e by
2020 and 2030, respectively.
Emissions Reduction Potential
Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the
United States' foams sector could be reduced by up to 17.5 MtC02e in 2030.
This accounts for 3% of the United States' total reduction potential
(569 MtC02e) in 2030.
Oil & Natural
Gas Systems
Refrigeration &
Air Conditioning
Energy
Waste
Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Global Non-C02 Emissions
Foams sector baseline emissions are estimated to
be 6 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030, emissions are
projected to be 31 MtC02e, or 2% of total
non-CO. emissions in the United States.
Projected Emissions in 2030
Emissions from the United States and other Major Emitting Countries (MtCO e)
Rest of World: 17 MtC02e
X26
Energy | Waste H Industrial Agriculture | Other Non-C02
Processes Sources Not Modeled
United States Japan Germany France Italy ROW
-------
Key Points
In the United States, HFC emissions from foams are projected to quintuple over the next
20 years.
Abatement measures include replacing MFCs with low-GWP blowing agents and proper
recovery and disposal of foam present in existing systems at their end of life.
In 2030, the U.S. abatement potential quantified is 12.6 MtCIhe (41% of business-as-usual
[BAU] emissions from the foam sector) at cost-effective prices ($0 per tC02e). At higher
prices, the abatement options analyzed have the potential to abate up to 17.5 MtC02e (57%
of BAU emissions) in 2030.
Abatement Measures
Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices.
Substitute HFC with HCCom
Substitute HFC with HC
Substitute LCD-Alcohol for HFC134aC02
Appliance EOL-manual recovery
Appliance end of life (EOL)-fully automated
Substitute C02 for HFC245faC02
Continuous and discontinuous:
HFC 134a switch to HC
Substitute HC for HFC245faCO,
One component HFC- 134a switch to HC I
One component HFC-152a switch to HC
012345
I Reductions achievable at costs less than $0/tC02e
I Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tC02e
Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030
It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 41%, compared with the
baseline, in 2030. An additional 16% reduction is available using
technologies with increasingly higher costs.
Reduction Potential
Baseline: 31 MtCO,e
| Residual
Emissions
| Technically Feasible
at Increasing Costs
Reductions at
No Cost
Abatement Measures
Abatement options considered
include replacing HFCs with various
low-GWP blowing agents and
properly recovering and disposing
of foam contained in equipment
and other products after its useful
life. More specifically, the use of
hydrocarbon or CO2 blowing
agents instead of HFCs is assessed
quantitatively as an abatement
measure in the foam sector noting
that other low-GWP agents (e.g.,
HFO-1234ze, -1233zd[E]) would
achieve similar abatement levels.
Abatement Potential
The total abatement potential in
the foams sector from the options
explored is 17.5 MtCO2e57% of
total annual foams sector emissions
in 2030while 12.6 MtCO2e, or
41%, is achievable at cost-effective
carbon prices for the same year.
Total replacement of HFC blowing
agents in foams is limited in the near
term by the installed base of foam
products. All abatement options
analyzed replace blowing agents
in newly manufactured foams or
destroy the blowing agent only at the
foam's natural end of life.
-------
Aerosols
HFC Emissions from Aerosols Product Use
Sector Description
Aerosol propellant formulations
containing HFCs are present in a
wide variety of consumer products
such as hairsprays, deodorants, and
cleaning suppliesas well as technical
and medical aerosols. Baseline HFC
emissions from aerosols in the United
States were estimated at 8.9 MtCC^e
in 2010 and are expected to increase
to 15.6MtCO2eby2030.
Emissions Reduction Potential
Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the
United States' aerosols product use sector could be reduced by up to 10.3
MtC02e in 2030. This accounts for 2% of the United States' total reduction
potential (569 MtC02e) in 2030.
Aerosols
Product Use
10
Oil & Natural
Gas Systems
Refrigeration &
Air Conditioning
Energy
Waste
Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Global Non-C02 Emissions
Aerosols Product Use sector baseline emissions are
estimated to be 9 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030,
emissions are projected to be 16 MtC02e, or 1% of
total non-C02 emissions in the United States.
Projected Emissions in 2030
Aerosols
Product Use
1%
Emissions from the United States and other Major Emitting Countries (MtC02e)
Rest of World: 49 MtC02e
Energy || Waste | Industrial | Agriculture Other Non-C02
Processes Sources Not Modeled
China United States India Russia Mexico ROW
-------
Key Points
U.S. baseline emissions in 2010 for aerosols were estimated at 8.9 MtCOae and projected to
climb to 13.0 MtC02e and 15.6 MtC02e by 2020 and 2030, respectively.
Five abatement measures were considered for the aerosols sector, including transitioning
away from HFC use to lower-GWP propellants and producing alternative nonaerosol
consumer products, such as a stick or roller.
Relatively low-cost abatement measures (<$5/tC02e) are projected to be capable of
mitigating 53% of the sector emissions in 2030.
Abatement Measures
Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices.
Substitute HC for HFC-134a
Substitute NIK for HFC-1523
Dry powder inhalers
Substitute NIK for HFC-1343
Substitute HFO-1234ze for HFC-1343
Substitute HC for HFC-152a
Substitute HFO-1234ze for HFC-152a
Substitute HFC-1523 for HFC-1343
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
I Reductions achievable at costs less than $0/tC02e
I Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tC02f
Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030
It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 48%, compared with the
baseline, in 2030. An additional 18% reduction is available using
technologies with increasingly higher costs.
Reduction Potential
Baseline: 16 MtC02e
Residual ] Technically Feasible
Emissions at Increasing Costs
Reductions at
No Cost
Abatement Measures
Abatement options available to
reduce emissions for consumer
aerosol products include
transitioning to replacement
propellants with lower GWPs
HCs, HFO-1234ze, and HFC-152a
(where HFC-134a is used)and
converting to an NIK alternative,
such as sticks, rollers, or finger/
trigger pumps.
Abatement Potential
The U.S. abatement potential
from aerosols containing
HFCs is estimated to be 10.3
MtCO2e66% of baseline
emissions from this sector and
3% of total annual emissions
from all sectors that use ODS
substitutes in 2030. At $5 per
tCO2e, the abatement potential is
estimated to be 53.4% of baseline
sector emissions, or 8.3 MtCC^e.
Furthermore, the abatement
potential at break-even prices
<$0 per tCO2e is 7.5 MtCO2e
(48.2% of baseline sector emissions)
in 2030.
-------
Fire Protection
HFC and RFC Emissions from Fire Protection Equipment
Sector Description
The fire protection sector emits HFCs
and PFCs when total flooding fire
suppression systems and portable fire
extinguishers are used. U.S. GHG
emissions from this sector were
estimated at 0.8 MtCO2e in 2010.
Under the baseline scenario, emissions
are projected to increase to 2.2
MtCO2e in 2030.
Emissions Reduction Potential
Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the
United States' fire protection sector could be reduced by up to 0.14 MtC02e in
2030. This accounts for 0.02% of the United States' total reduction
potential (569 MtC02e) in 2030.
Fire
Protection
0.14
Oil & Natural
Gas Systems
Refrigeration &
Air Conditioning
Energy
Waste
Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Global Non-C02 Emissions
Fire Protection sector baseline emissions are
estimated to be 0.8 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030,
emissions are projected to be 2.2 MtC02e, or 0.2%
of total non-CO. emissions in the United States.
Energy
Waste
Fire
Protection
0.2%
| Industrial ' Agriculture
Processes
Projected Emissions in 2030
Emissions from the United States and other Major Emitting Countries (MtCO e)
Rest of World: 36 MtC02e
V
*f
Other Non-C02
Sources Not Modeled
Australia China Japan Poland United States ROW
-------
Key Points
GHG emissions from fire protection equipment are projected to more than double between
2010 and 2030.
Total flooding fire suppression abatement options involve replacing MFCs and
perfluorocarbons (PFCs) with lower-GWP alternatives, including both in-kind and NIK
measures.
There is no abatement potential in the U.S. fire protection equipment sector in 2030.
Abatement Measures
Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices.
FK-5-1-12 in new Class A total
flooding applications
Inert gas systems
Water mist systems
0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08
Reductions achievable at costs less than $0/tC02e
1 Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tCO,e
Abatement Measures
The abatement options explored
replace HFCs and PFCs with zero-
or low-GWP extinguishing agents
to reduce CO2e emissions from the
fire protection sector's total flooding
equipment. The alternatives to
HFCs and PFCs in total flooding
equipment are both in-kind gaseous
agents and NIK options. The in-
kind gaseous alternatives include
CO2, inert gases, and fluorinated
ketones, and the NIK alternatives
include varying materials and systems
such as dispersed and condensed
aerosol extinguishing systems, water
sprinklers, water mist, foam, and
inert gas generators.
Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030
There are no cost-effective reductions available in the fire protection sector
in 2030. However, a 6% reduction is available using technologies
with increasingly higher costs.
Reduction Potential
0%
Baseline: 2 MtC02e
Residual | Technically Feasible
Emissions at Increasing Costs
Reductions at
No Cost
Abatement Potential
From the options quantified, U.S.
abatement potential of emissions
from total flooding fire suppression
applications is projected to be 0.14
MtCO2e, or nearly 7% of baseline
sector emissions, in 2030. There is
little abatement potential at carbon
prices below $50 per tCO2e in
2030, which is projected to have
the potential to abate 41.3 MtCO2e
from the fire protection sector, or 6%
of baseline sector emissions.
-------
Aluminum P
tibn
RFC Emissions from Primary Aluminum Production
Sector Description
The primary aluminum production
industry produces PFC emissions
during brief process upset conditions
in the aluminum smelting process.
PFCs from primary aluminum
production in the United States are
projected to decrease by 2%, from 3.7
MtCO2e in 2010 to 3.6 MtCO2e in
2030.
Emissions Reduction Potential
Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the
United States' primary aluminum production sector could be reduced by up to
2.1 MtC02e in 2030. This accounts for 0.37% of the United States'
total reduction potential (569 MtC02e) in 2030.
Aluminum
Production
2
Energy
Waste
Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Global Non-C02 Emissions
Primary Aluminum Production sector baseline
emissions are estimated to be 3.7 MtC02e in 2010.
In 2030, emissions are projected to be 3.6 MtC02e
or 0.3% of total non-C02 emissions in
the United States.
Projected Emissions in 2030
Emissions from the United States and other Major Emitting Countries (MtC02e)
Rest of World: 9 MtC02e
Primary
Aluminum Production
0.3%
Energy
Waste
| Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Other Non-C02
Sources Not Modeled
China United States Russia Canada Australia ROW
-------
Key Points
PFC emissions from primary aluminum production represent the fourth largest
source of fluorinated greenhouse gas (F-GHG) emissions in the U.S. industrial sector.
Primary abatement measures include installation of or upgrades to process
computer control systems and the installation of systems to allow more precise
alumina feeding.
Abatement measures in this sector have the potential to reduce over half of the
projected baseline emissions.
Abatement Measures
Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices.
Minor retrofit (process computer control
systems only)
Major retrofit (process computer control
systems + alumina point feeding)
Reductions achievable at costs less than $0/tC02e
Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tCO,e
Abatement Measures
Abatement options in the primary
aluminum production sector are pri-
marily associated with installing or
upgrading process computer control
systems and alumina point-feed sys-
tem. The options considered involve
(1) a minor retrofit to upgrade the
process computer control systems
and (2) a major retrofit to the pro-
cess computer control systems cou-
pled with the installation of alumina
point-feed systems.
Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030
There are no cost-effective reductions available in the primary aluminum
production sector in 2030. However, a 58% reduction is available
using technologies with increasingly higher costs.
Reduction Potential
Baseline: 4 MtC02e
Residual
Emissions
Technically Feasible
at Increasing Costs
Reductions at
No Cost
Abatement Potential
U.S. abatement potential in
the primary aluminum sector
is projected to be 2.1 MtCC^e,
or nearly 58% of baseline sector
emissions in 2030. There are no
cost-effective reductions available in
2030 for this sector, but mitigation
is feasible with the adoption of more
costly mitigation measures. In 2030,
mitigation measures that cost less
than or equal to $30/tCO2e have
the potential to reduce emissions by
1.7 MtCO2e, or 81% of the total
abatement potential.
-------
HCFC-22 Production
Fluorinated Greenhouse Gas (F-GHG) Emissions from HCFC-22 Productio
Sector Description
Chlorodifluoromethane (HCFC-22)
is used in emissive applications (air
conditioning and refrigeration) as well
as in feedstock for synthetic polymer
production. The production of HCFC-22
generates HFC-23 as a by-product, which
is separated as a vapor from the condensed
HCFC-22; emissions occur through
HFC-23 venting to the atmosphere.
HFC-23 emissions were estimated at 128
MtCO2e and are projected to increase to
259 and 286 MtCO2e in 2020 and 2030,
respectively. Because HCFC-22 depletes
stratospheric ozone, its production is
being phased out under the Montreal
Protocol in areas apart from feedstock
production.
Emissions Reduction Potential
It is assumed that HCFC-22 production facilities in the United States
have voluntarily adopted measures to control emissions and the baseline
represents residual emissions. Hence, the United States has no additional
abatement potential in 2030.
HCFC-22
Production
0
Oil & Natu
GasSyste
Refrigeration &
Air Conditioning
Energy
Waste
Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Global Non-C02 Emissions
HCFC-22 Production sector baseline emissions are
estimated to be 12 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030,
emissions are projected to be 6 MtC02e, or 0.5%
of total non-CO. emissions in the United States.
Projected Emissions in 2030
HCFC-22
Production
0.5%
Emissions from the United States and other Major Emitting Countries (MtC02e)
Rest of World: 12 MtC02e
29
Energy
Waste
| Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Other Non-C02
Sources Not Modeled
China India Mexico Russia United States ROW
-------
Key Points
Existing voluntary measures adopted by HCFC-22 producers in the United States mean that
additional abatement from domestic sources will be limited in the future.
Although the United States is projected to have no abatement in this sector, it remains an
important opportunity for additional abatement internationally in other HCFC-producing
countries that do not have abatement measures in place.
Thermal oxidation is the only abatement option considered for the HCFC-22 production sector.
The maximum abatement potential is achievable at costs below $1 per tC02e.
Abatement Measures
Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices.
Thermal oxidation o
Reductions achievable at costs less than $0/tC02e
Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tCO,e
Abatement Measures
Thermal oxidation is the only
abatement option considered
in this analysis for the HCFC-
22 production sector. Thermal
oxidation is a demonstrated
technology that oxidizes HFC-
23 to CO2, hydrogen fluoride,
and water for the destruction of
halogenated organic compounds.
This process is assumed to be
compatible with all facilities.
Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030
The United States has no additional abatement potential because it is as-
sumed that existing voluntary actions have already reduced emissions by the
maximum potential in 2030. Additional reductions are not
technologically feasible based on the current suite of abatement
measures available in this sector.
Baseline: 6 MtC02e
Residual
Emissions
Technically Feasible
at Increasing Costs
Reductions at
No Cost
Abatement Potential
The baseline emissions from
HCFC-22 production facilities
in the United States represent
residual emissions from facilities
with abatement measures already
in place. For this reason, the
abatement potential is zero for the
United States. Despite the lack of
domestic abatement opportunities,
this sector remains an important
source of low-cost abatement
opportunities internationally.
-------
'^^^ .fvl
Semiconductor Manufacturing
F-GHG Emissions from Semiconductor Manufacturing
Sector Description
The semiconductor industry uses
several F-GHGs, including sulfur
hexafluoride (SFg), nitrogen
trifluoride (NF3), and PFCs during
fabrication. Trace amounts of these
gases are incidentally released into
the atmosphere through normal
fabrication activities. In 2010, 4.5
MtCO2e of emissions were produced
from the U.S. semiconductor sector.
Emissions Reduction Potential
Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the
United States' semiconductor manufacturing sector could be reduced by
up to 0.9 MtC02e in 2030. This accounts for 0.16% of the United States'
total reduction potential (569 MtC02e) in 2030.
Semiconductor
Manufacturing
0.88
Energy
Waste
Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Global Non-C02 Emissions
Semiconductor Manufacturing sector baseline
emissions are estimated to be 4.5 MtC02e in 2010.
In 2030, emissions are projected to be
4.5 MtC02e, or 0.3% of total non-C02
emissions in the United States.
Projected Emissions in 2030
JPk
Emissions from the United States and other Major Emitting Countries (MtC02e)
Rest of World: 4 MtC02e
3
Semiconductor
Manufacturing
0.3%
Energy
Waste
| Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Other Non-C02
Sources Not Modeled
China United States Japan Singapore South Korea ROW
-------
Key Points
Baseline emissions from semiconductor manufacturing in the United States will
remain constant between 2010 and 2030.
The U.S. abatement potential is 1 MtC02e in 2013.
10% of the total abatement potential in this sector is achievable at costs at or
below$30/tC02ein2013.
Abatement Measures
Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices.
Thermal abatement
NF3 remote clean
Gas replacement
Process optimization I
Catalytic abatement
Plasma abatement
0.00 0.25 0.50
Reductions achievable at costs less than $0/tCO
I Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/t
Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030
It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 0.85%, compared with the
baseline, in 2030. An additional 19% reduction is available using
technologies with increasingly higher costs.
Reduction Potential
1%
Baseline: 4 MtC02e
Residual
Emissions
Technically Feasible
at Increasing Costs
Reductions at
No Cost
Abatement Measures
Despite rapid growth between
2000 and 2010, the semiconductor
manufacturing industry experienced
a stark decline in F-GHG emissions,
decreasing from 7 MtCO2e in
2000 to 4.5 MtCO2e in 2010.
This decline can be attributed to
voluntary emissions reduction goals
set by the World Semiconductor
Council. Additionally, six abatement
technologies were considered to
further reduce emissions from this
sector: thermal abatement systems,
catalytic abatement systems,
plasma abatement systems, NF3
remote chamber clean process,
gas replacement, and process
optimization.
Abatement Potential
U.S. F-GHG abatement potential in
the semiconductor manufacturing
industry is estimated to be 1.0
MtCO2e and 0.9 MtCO2e in
2020 and 2030, respectively, which
correspond to 23% and 20% of
BAU emissions from this sector. In
2030, the abatement potential of
0.1 MtCO2e, or 2%, is achievable
at abatement costs below $30 per
tCO2e.
-------
Electric Power Systems (EPS)
SF6 from Electric Power Systems
Sector Description
Electric power systems (EPSs)
use transmission and distribution
equipment that contains SFg, a potent
GHG with a GWP 23,900 times that
of CC>2. Emissions occur through
unintentional leaking of equipment
and improper handling practices
during servicing and disposal. U.S.
baseline emissions from this sector
were estimated at 12.1 MtCC^e in
2010. Emissions are projected to drop
to 10.3 MtCO2e in 2030, a 15%
decrease.
Emissions Reduction Potential
Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the
United States' electric power systems sector could be reduced by up to
5.9 MtC02e in 2030. This accounts for 1% of the United States' total
reduction potential (569 MtC02e) in 2030.
Electric Power
Systems
6
Oil & Natural
Gas Systems
Refrigeration &
Air Conditioning
Energy
Waste
Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Global Non-C02 Emissions
Electric Power Systems sector baseline emissions
are estimated to be 12 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030,
emissions are projected to be 10 MtC02e, or 1% of
total non-CO. emissions in the United States.
Projected Emissions in 2030
Emissions from the United States and other Major Emitting Countries (MtC02e)
Rest of World: 18 MtC02e
Electric
Power Systems
0.8%
Energy
Waste
| Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Other Non-C02
Sources Not Modeled
China United States India Brazil South Korea ROW
-------
Key Points
The U.S. abatement potential ranges from 3.7 MtC02e to 5.9 MtC02e in 2030.
Abatement measures include technologies and handling practices to manage SFe
emissions and prevent leakage during servicing and disposal.
The abatement potential at cost-effective break-even prices (SO/tCOae) is projected
to reduce baseline sector emissions by 36% in 2030.
Abatement Measures
Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices.
Improved SF6 handling
SF6 recycling
Equipment refurbishment
Leak detection and leak repair
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Reductions achievable at costs less than $0/tC02e
Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tCO e
Abatement Measures
Abatement measures that reduce
emissions in the EPS sector include
SFg recycling, leak detection and
repair, equipment refurbishment,
and improved SFg handling. These
new technologies and handling
practices have largely been adopted
in Europe and Japan. SFg recycling
is commonly practiced in the
United States, but there remains
significant potential for further
reductions through improved
SFg handling and upgraded or
refurbished equipment.
Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030
It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 36%, compared with the
baseline, in 2030. An additional 22% reduction is available using
technologies with increasingly higher costs.
Reduction Potential
Baseline: 10 MtC02e
Residual ] Technically Feasible
Emissions at Increasing Costs
Reductions at
No Cost
Abatement Potential
U.S. abatement potential in
this sector is projected to be 6.4
MtCO2e in 2020 and 5.9 MtCO2e
in 2030, which corresponds to
58% of the BAU baseline sector
emissions, respectively. Significant
reductions are available at relatively
low cost. For example, emissions
reduction technologies that cost
up to $5 per tCO2e, can reduce
emissions by 3.7 MtCC^e,
accounting for 63% of the
technologically feasible emissions
reductions in 2030.
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"^^^^^^W~~^^M
Magnesium Production
SF6 Emissions from Magnesium Production
Sector Description
Magnesium manufacturing uses SFg
as a cover gas during production
and casting to prevent spontaneous
combustion of molten magnesium
in the presence of air. The use of SFg
can result in fugitive emissions during
manufacturing processes. Advanced
initiatives in the magnesium industry
to phase out the use of SFg have
resulted in a 60% reduction in SFg
emissions from 3 MtCC^e to 1.2
MtCO2e between 2000 and 2010.
Emissions Reduction Potential
Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the
United States' magnesium manufacturing sector could be reduced by up
to 0.1 MtC02e in 2030. This accounts for 0.01% of the United States'
total reduction potential (569 MtC02e) in 2030.
Magnesium
Production
0.07
Oil & Natural
Gas Systems
Refrigeration &
Air Conditioning
Energy
Waste
Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Global Non-C02Emissions
Magnesium Production sector baseline emissions
are estimated to be 1.2 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030,
emissions are projected to be 0.1 MtC02e, or 0.01%
of total non-C02 emissions in
the United States.
Projected Emissions in 2030
Emissions from the United States and other Major Emitting Countries (MtCCLe)
Rest of World: 0.10 MtC02e
Magnesium
Production
0.01%
Energy
Waste
| Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Other Non-C02
Sources Not Modeled
China Russia Kazakhstan Israel United States ROW
-------
Key Points
The U.S. abatement potential of 98% is achieved through three abatement measures
that substitute SFe with alternative gases.
From 2010 to 2030, SFg emissions are projected to drop from 1.2 MtCC^e to 0.1
MtC02e.
Full abatement potential can be achieved at break-even prices of $5/tC02e or less.
Abatement Measures
Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices.
Alternate cover gas -
NovecTM612
Alternate cover gas -
HFC-134a
Alternate cover gas - S02
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
Reductions achievable at costs less than $0/tC02e
Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tCO e
Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030
It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 78%, compared with the
baseline, in 2030. An additional 20% reduction is available using
technologies with increasingly higher costs.
Reduction Potential
Baseline: 0.1 MtC02e
Residual ] Technically Feasible
Emissions at Increasing Costs
Reductions at
No Cost
Abatement Measures
Three abatement measures are
available for reducing SFg emissions
in production and processing,
all of which involve replacing
SFg with an alternative cover gas:
sulfur dioxide (SO2), HFC-134a,
or Novec 612. Although toxicity,
odor, and corrosive properties are
a concern of using SC>2 as a cover
gas, it can potentially eliminate SFg
emissions entirely through improved
containment and pollution control
systems. HFC-134a, along with
other fluorinated gases, contains
fewer associated health, odor, and
corrosive impacts than SO2, but it
does have global warming potential.
Novec 612 is currently being used
in a diecasting facility, and the
replacement of SFg with Novec 612
is under evaluation.
Abatement Potential
The U.S. abatement potential of SFg
emissions in the magnesium sector
is 1.1 MtCO2e, approximately 98%
of projected sector emissions. The
maximum reduction potential for
the suite of reduction technologies is
98% of projected emissions in 2030.
These reductions can be achieved at
a cost of less than $5/tCO2e.
-------
Photovoltaic Cell Manufacturing
F-GHG Emissions from Photovoltaic Cell Manufacturing
Sector Description
The photovoltaic (PV) cell
manufacturing process often uses
multiple F-GHGs during production,
some of which are released into the
atmosphere. Baseline emissions in
2010 were 0.18 MtCO2e and are
expected to increase slightly to 0.19
MtCO2e in2030.
Emissions Reduction Potential
Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the
United States' photovoltaic cell manufacturing sector could be reduced by
up to 0.2 MtC02e in 2030. This accounts for 0.03% of the United States'
total reduction potential (569 MtC02e) in 2030.
Photovoltaic
Cell
Manufacturing
0.17
Oil & Natural
Gas Systems
Refrigeration &
Air Conditioning
Energy
Waste
Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Global Non-C02 Emissions
Photovoltaic Cell Manufacturing sector baseline
emissions are estimated to be 0.2 MtC02e in 2010.
In 2030, emissions are projected to be 0.2 MtC02e,
or 0.01% of total non-C02 emissions in
the United States.
Projected Emissions in 2030
Emissions from the United States and other Major Emitting Countries (MtC02e)
Rest of World: 0.13 MtC02e
\
- Y
*r*T
Photovoltaic
Cell Manufacturing
0.01%
Energy
Waste
| Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Other Non-C02
Sources Not Modeled
China Jaoan United States Germanv Malaysia ROW
-------
Key Points
The U.S. abatement potential in the PV manufacturing sector is 0.2 MtCOae in 2030.
Reduction technologies include technologies that reduce F-GHG emissions through
etch and/or chamber cleaning processes.
The high costs of emissions reduction technologies combined with low emissions
reductions lead to abatement costs greater than $300/tC02e.
Abatement Measures
Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices.
NF3 remote clean
Thermal abatement
Catalytic abatement
Plasma abatement
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2
I Reductions achievable at costs less than $0/tC02e
I Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tCO,e
Abatement Measures
Abatement measures considered
for reducing F-GHG emissions
from the PV manufacturing
sector include thermal abatement
systems, catalytic abatement
systems, plasma abatements
systems, and the NF3 remote
chamber clean process. These
technologies have the potential to
reduce emissions from etch and/or
chamber clean processes by 90%.
Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030
There are no cost effective reductions available in the PV cell manufacturing
sector in 2030. However, a 90% reductions are
available using technologies with increasingly higher costs.
Reduction Potential
Baseline: 0.2 MtC02e
Residual ] Technically Feasible
Emissions at Increasing Costs
Reductions at
No Cost
Abatement Potential
The U.S. abatement potential in
the PV manufacturing sector is
estimated to be 0.17 MtCC^e
from 2020 through 2030, or
90% of baseline emissions in each
year. High capital costs and low
emissions reductions associated
with the available abatement
measures result in abatement costs
greater than $300/tCO2e.
-------
Flat Panel Display Manufacturing
F-GHG Emissions from Flat Panel Display Manufacturing
Sector Description
Flat panel display (FPD)
manufacturing processes produce
F-GHG emissions, including SFg,
NF3, and carbon tetrafluoride (CF4).
FPD manufacturing industry is
located outside the United States.
Despite the lack of activity in the
United States, this sector remains an
important source of international
GHG emissions and abatement
potential.
Emissions Reduction Potential
While the United States has no abatement in this sector,
globally emissions from this sector can be reduced by
approximately 10 MtCC^e.
Flat Panel
Display
Manufacturing
0
V
Oil & Natural
Gas Systems
Refrigeration &
Air Conditioning
Energy
Waste
Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Global Non-C02 Emissions
The United States has no emissions associated
with Flat Panel Display manufacturing between
2010 and 2030.
Projected Emissions in 2030
Emissions from the United States and other Major Emitting Countries (MtC02e)
Rest of World: 0.0 MtC02e
Flat Panel
Display
Manufacturing
0%
Energy
I Waste || Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Other Non-C02
Sources Not Modeled
China South Korea Japan Singapore United States ROW
-------
Key Points
FDP manufacturing is located outside the United States and is projected to remain
outside the United States out to 2030.
The United States is projected to have zero emissions in this sector between 2010
and 2030.
Six abatement options were analyzed to reduce emissions from etch and/or clean
processes.
Abatement Measures
Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices.
Thermal abatement o
NF3 remote clean o
Catalytic abatement 0
Central abatement system 0
Plasma abatement 0
Gas replacement 0
012345
Reductions achievable at costs less than $0/tC02e
I Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tCO,e
Abatement Measures
Six abatement options were
considered for the FPD
manufacturing sector: central
abatement, thermal abatement,
catalytic abatement, plasma
abatement, NF3 remote chamber
clean, and gas replacement. These
systems are applicable to reducing
emissions from etch and/or clean
processes. Thermal abatement
systems represent the largest
abatement potential, accounting
for 40% of emissions reductions in
the FPD manufacturing sector.
Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030
The United States has no baseline emissions and subsequently no
abatement potential in the flat panel display manufacturing sector.
0%
Baseline: 0 MtC02e
Residual
Emissions
Technically Feasible
at Increasing Costs
Reductions at
No Cost
Abatement Potential
Although the United States has
no abatement potential in this
sector, there are international
opportunities to reduce emissions.
Global abatement of F-GHGs in
the FPD manufacturing sector is
estimated to be 10 MtCC^e in
2030, which equates to an 80%
reduction in emissions.
-------
jyestoc
Emissions from Livestock Operations
Sector Description
Livestock operations generate CH4
and N2O emissions. The GHG
emissions mainly come from two
sources: enteric fermentation and
manure management. CH4 is
produced as a by-product of the
digestive process in animals through
a microbial fermentation process.
Manure N2O emissions result from
nitrification and denitrification of the
nitrogen that is excreted in manure
and urine. U.S. baseline emissions
from the livestock sector are estimated
to grow from 174.4 to 185.9 MtCO2e
from 2010 to 2030.
Emissions Reduction Potential
Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the
United States' livestock sector could be reduced by up to 43 MtC02e in 2030.
This accounts for 8% of the United States' total reduction potential
(569 MtC02e) in 2030.
Oil & Natural
Gas Systems
Refrigeration &
Air Conditioning
Livestock
43
Energy
Waste
Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Global Non-C02 Emissions
Livestock sector baseline emissions are estimated to
be 174 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030, emissions are
projected to be 186 MtC02e, or 14% of total
non-CO. emissions in the United States.
Projected Emissions in 2030
Livestock
14%
Emissions from the United States and other Major Emitting Countries (MtCO e)
Rest of World: 1,553 MtC02e
186
122
246
Energy
Waste | Industrial | Agriculture
Processes
Other Non-C02
Sources Not Modeled
India China Brazil United States Pakistan ROW
-------
Key Points
The livestock sector accounts for 14% of baseline non-COa emissions in the United States in
2030.
The largest low-cost reductions in emissions resulted from implementing strategies to
improve feed conversion efficiency, incorporating feed supplements, and increasing the use
of large-scale complete mix anaerobic digesters.
The technologically feasible abatement potential of the livestock sector is 43.2 MtC02e in
2030, or 23% of baseline sector emissions.
Abatement Measures
Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices.
Propionate precursors
Antimethanogen
Improved feed conversion
Large-scale complete mix digester
with engine
Large-scale covered lagoon with engine
Large-scale complete mix digester
without engine
Large-scale covered lagoon without engine
Intensive grazing
Large-scale fixed-film digester with engine
Large-scale fixed-film digester
without engine
Antibiotics
Other measures
0123456
I Reductions achievable at costs less than $0/tC02e
Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tC02e
Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030
It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 2%, compared with the
baseline, in 2030. An additional 21% reduction is available using
technologies with increasingly higher costs.
Reduction Potential
Baseline: 186 MtC02e
Residual
Emissions
Abatement Measures
The report considered six enteric fer-
mentation (CH4) abatement measures:
improved feed conversion efficiency,
antibiotics, bovine somatrotropin,
propionate precursors, antimethano-
gen vaccines, and intensive pasture
management. It also included two ma-
nure management (N2O) abatement
measures: small and large digesters
(complete-mix, plug-flow, fixed film)
and covered lagoons. The largest re-
ductions resulted from implementing
antimethanogen vaccines, propionate
precursors, and large-scale complete-
mix digesters.
Abatement Potential
Technologically feasible U.S.
abatement potential for the livestock
sector was estimated at 43.2 MtCC^e
in 2030, a 23% reduction compared
with the sector baseline. In 2030, a
reduction of 4.1 MtCC^e is cost-
effective under current projections and
15.5 MtCO2e would be possible at an
abatement cost of $30/tCC>2e.
Technically Feasible
at Increasing Costs
Reductions at
No Cost
-------
sum
Methane (CH4) and Nitrous Oxide (N20) Emissions from Rice Cultivation
Sector Description
Rice cultivation results in CH4 and
N2O emissions, and changes in soil
organic C stocks. When paddy fields
are flooded, decomposition of organic
material depletes the oxygen in the
soil and floodwater, causing anaerobic
conditions. Human activities influence
soil N2O emissions (use of fertilizers
and other crop management practices)
and soil C stocks (residue and crop
yield management). The United States
ranks as the 11th largest emitter of
GHG emissions from rice cultivation.
Baseline emissions from the rice
cultivation sector in the United States
are projected to grow from 5.7 to 8.8
MtCO2e from 2010 to 2030.
Emissions Reduction Potential
Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the
United States' rice sector could be reduced by up to 3 MtC02e in 2030.
This accounts for 1% of the United States' total reduction potential
(569 MtC02e) in 2030.
Refrigeration &
Air Conditioning
Energy
Waste
Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Global Non-C02 Emissions
Rice sector baseline emissions are estimated to be
6 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030, emissions are
projected to be 9 MtC02e, or 1% of total
non-C02 emissions in the United States.
Projected Emissions in 2030
Emissions from the United States and other Major Emitting Countries (MtCO e)
Rest of World: 244 MtC02e
Energy
Waste
| Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Other Non-C02
Sources Not Modeled
India Bangladesh Indonesia China United States ROW
LI'l
-------
Key Points
The rice cultivation sector accounts for 1% of baseline non-COa emissions in the
United States in 2030.
Among the abatement measures evaluated, switching from continuous flooding
to mid-season drainage with residue utilization and implementation of no tillage
practices provides the largest emission reductions in the United States.
The technologically feasible reduction potential of the rice cultivation sector is 3.0
MtCt^e in 2030,35% of baseline sector emissions.
Abatement Measures
Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices.
Switch from CFto mid-season drainage
with 50% residue
Continuous flooding with 50% residue incorporation
and 20% reduced fertilizer usage
Switch from CFto alternate wet/dry with 50% residue
incorporation and use of nitrogen inhibitors
Continuous flooding with 50% residue incorporation;
20% reduced fertilizer usage; and dry seeding
Switch from CFtoalternate wet/dry with
50% residue incorporation
Other measures
0.05
0.13
0.0
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
Reductions achievable at costs less than $0/tC02e
Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tC02e
Abatement Measures
Five types of abatement measures
were considered: paddy flooding
(continuous, midseason,
alternating, dry), crop residue
incorporation (50% and 100%),
tillage (conventional and no
till), fertilization application
(conventional, ammonium sulfate,
nitrification inhibitor, slow release,
reduced use, auto fertilization),
and direct seeding. Switching
continuous flooding to mid-season
drainage in combination with
50% residue incorporation and
adopting no-tillage practices in
rice cultivation provide the largest
emissions reductions but may also
lower rice yields to some degree.
Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030
It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 8%, compared with the
baseline, in 2030. An additional 26% reduction is available using
technologies with increasingly higher costs.
Reduction Potential
26% 8%
Baseline: 9 MtC02e
Residual
Emissions
Technically Feasible
at Increasing Costs
Reductions at
No Cost
Abatement Potential
Technologically feasible U.S.
abatement potential for the rice
cultivation sector was estimated
at 3.3 MtCO2e in 2020 and 3.0
MtCO2e in 2030, 39% and 35%
reductions compared with the sector
baseline. In 2030, a reduction of 0.7
MtCO2e at an abatement cost of
$0/tCO2e and 1.7 MtCO2e would
be possible at a cost of $30/tCO2e.
-------
Non-rice Croplands
Sector Description
Land management in croplands influences
soil N2O emissions (influenced by
fertilization practices, soil drainage, and
nitrogen mineralization), H4 fluxes,
and soil organic carbon (C) stocks (and
associated CO2 fluxes to the atmosphere).
The report considers only major crops
(barley, maize, sorghum, soybeans, and
wheat) and minor crops closely related
to these (rye, lentils, other beans, and
oats). U.S. baseline emissions from the
croplands sector in 2010 were estimated
at 82.1 MtCO2e. Projected emissions
are relatively constant, decreasing to
approximately 71.3 MtCO2e in 2020 and
rebounding to 86.1 MtCO2e by 2030.
Emissions Reduction Potential
Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the
United States' soil sector could be reduced by up to 11 MtC02e in 2030.
This accounts for 2% of the United States' total reduction potential
(569 MtC02e) in 2030.
Croplands
11
Refrigeration &
Air Conditioning
Energy
Waste
Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Global Non-CO, Emissions
Croplands sector baseline emissions are estimated
to be 82 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030, emissions are
projected to be 86 MtC02e, or 6% of total
non-C00 emissions in the United States.
Projected Emissions in 2030
Croplands
6%
Emissions from the United States and other Major Emitting Countries (MtCO e)
Rest of World: 168 MtC02e
4.
W
Energy
Waste Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Other Non-C02
Sources Not Modeled
China United States India Brazil Argentina ROW
-------
Key Points
The U.S. emission reduction potential of the croplands sector is 10.9 MtCOae in 2030,
13% of baseline sector emissions.
Seven abatement options were analyzed to reduce soil management emissions.
86% of potential reductions in the United States are achievable by implementing
no-till cultivation and reducing fertilizer applications.
Abatement Measures
Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices.
No tillage
20% reduced fertilizer use
Use nitrogen inhibitors
Split fertilizer I
100% residue incorporation
20% increase in fertilizer use
012345
Reductions achievable at costs less than $0/tC02e
Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tC02e
Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030
It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 6%, compared with the
baseline, in 2030. An additional 6.6% reduction is available using
technologies with increasingly higher costs.
Reduction Potential
Baseline: 86 MtC02e
Residual
Emissions
Technically Feasible
at Increasing Costs
Reductions at
No Cost
Abatement Measures
Six abatement measures were
considered for the cropland sector:
adoption of no-till cultivation,
reduced fertilizer application,
increased fertilizer application, split
nitrogen fertilization, application
of nitrification inhibitors, and crop
residue incorporation. In 2030, the
majority of reductions result from
implementing no-till cultivation
(50% of total abatement). Additional
reductions can be achieved by
reducing fertilizer usage and adopting
nitrification inhibitors.
Abatement Potential
Technologically feasible U.S.
abatement potential in the croplands
sector is estimated to be 14.5
MtCO2e in 2020 and 10.9 MtCO2e
in 2030, representing 20% and
13% reductions compared with the
sector baseline. In 2030, abatement
measures that break even (i.e., <$0/
tCC>2e) can reduce 5.5 MtCC^e
in cropland emissions. Additional
reductions are achievable when
including more costly abatement
measures. For example, the level of
reduced emissions increases to 8.7
MtCO2e when including abatement
measures at break-even prices less
than or equal to $30/tCC>2e.
-------
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