&EPA
United States Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Atmospheric Programs (6207J)
Washington, DC 20005
EPA-430-S1-4-002
April 2014
              Mitigation of Non-C02 Greenhouse Gases
              in the United States: 2010 to 2030


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Table  of Contents

Introduction	2
Energy
      Coal Mining	4
      Oil and Natural Gas Systems	6
Waste
      Landfills	8
      Wastewater	10
Industrial Processes
      Nitric and Adipic Acid Production	12
      Refrigeration and Air Conditioning	14
      Solvents	16
      Foams Manufacturing, Use, and  Disposal	18
      Aerosols	20
      Fire Protection	22
      Aluminum Production	24
      HCFC-22 Production	26
      Semiconductor Manufacturing	28
      Electric Power Systems	30
      Magnesium Production	32
      Photovoltaic Cell Manufacturing	34
      Flat Panel  Display Manufacturing	36
Agriculture
      Livestock	38
      Rice Cultivation	40
      Croplands	42

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 Introduction
Climate change is influenced by a number of social and
environmental factors. The change in the Earth's climate
is largely driven by emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs)
to the atmosphere. Although some GHG emissions occur
through natural processes, the largest share of GHG
emissions come from human activities. GHG emissions from
anthropogenic sources have increased significantly over a
relatively short time frame (-100 years) and are projected to
grow appreciably over the next 20 years.

Policy development and planning efforts are underway at
all levels of society to identify climate change strategies
that effectively reduce future  GHG emissions and prepare
communities to adapt to the  Earth's changing climate. GHG
mitigation analysis continues to play an important role in
forming climate change policy. A large body of research has
been dedicated to analyzing ways to reduce carbon dioxide
(CC>2) emissions.

Although this work is critical to developing effective climate
policy, other GHGs can play an important role in the effort
to address global climate change. These noncarbon dioxide
(non-CC>2) GHGs include methane (CH4), nitrous oxide
(N2O), and a number of industrial gases such as fluorinated
gases.

Non-CO2 GHGs are more potent than CO2 (per unit
weight) at trapping heat within the atmosphere. Global
warming potential (GWP)  is the factor that quantifies the
heat-trapping potential of each GHG relative to that of CC>2.
For example, CH4 has a GWP value of 21, which means that
each molecule of CH4 released into the atmosphere is 21
times more effective at trapping heat than an equivalent unit
of CO2. The table shows the list of GHGs with their GWP
values that are considered in this report.

Marginal abatement cost curves (MACC) are an analytical
tool commonly used in mitigation analysis to assist policy
makers in understanding the opportunities for reducing
GHG emissions and the relative cost of implementing
these opportunities. MACCs provide information on
the amount of emissions reductions that can be achieved
and an estimate of the costs of implementing the GHG
abatement measures. This figure shows the MACC for
all non-CO2 GHGs in the United States in 2030. The
potential for cost-effective non-CO2 GHG abatement
is significant. The figure shows the U.S. total aggregate
MACC for the year 2030. The U.S. total mitigation
potential is 569 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent
(MtCC^e), or 43% of baseline non-CO2 emissions in
2030, or 11% of the total net U.S. GHG emissions
in 2005. As the break-even price rises, the mitigation
potential grows. Significant mitigation opportunities
could be realized in the lower range of break-even
prices. For example, the mitigation potential at a price
of $10/tCO2e is greater than 360 MtCO2e, or 27%  of
the baseline emissions, and greater than 417 MtCO2e
or 31% of the baseline emissions at $20/tCO2e. In the
higher range of break-even prices, the MAC becomes
steeper, and less mitigation potential exists for each
additional increase in price.

As the figure shows, higher levels of emissions reductions
are achievable at higher abatement costs expressed in
dollars per metric ton of CO2 equivalent (S/tCC^e)
reduced. The quantity of emissions that can be reduced,
or the abatement potential,  is constrained by the
availability and effectiveness of the abatement measures
(emissions reduction technologies).
Greenhouse Gases

Carbon Dioxide
Methane
Nitrous Oxide
Hydrofluorocarbons
Sulfur Hexafluoride
Abbreviation

C02
CH4
N20
MFCs
SF6
GWP*
(100 year)
1
21
310
140 to 11,700
23,900
                                                           *GWP values from IPCC 4th Assessment Report (AR4)

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                   United States MACC for Non-C02 Greenhouse Gases in 2030
                                        Non-C02 Reductions (MtC02e)
About  this Report
This report highlights the United States' mitigation potential from non-C02 emitting sectors. These results come
from a broader study that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recently completed. The study
served to update the agency's international MACC model for the major anthropogenic sources of non-C02 GHG
emissions, which include the energy, waste, industrial, and agricultural sectors. EPA  used the model to conduct
a follow-on study to the 2006 EPA report Global Mitigation of Non-C02 Greenhouse Gases. The updated model
includes improved spatial resolution (country level rather than broad regions), updated data and parameters,
and increased transparency  in the economic and technological assumptions underlying the abatement measures
considered in the analysis. A detailed methodological description and the full results  of this analysis are published
in the EPA report Global Mitigation of Non-C02 Greenhouse Gases: 2010-2030. This  summary report focuses
on the United States, providing a brief overview of the abatement potential and costs  of implementing specific
abatement technologies nationally. Readers interested in more technical details of the analysis should refer to the
full technical report, which is available at EPA's web page on  International Non-C02 Mitigation.1
!The Global Mitigation of Non-C02 Greenhouse Gases: 2010-2030 report is available at:
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/EPAactivities/economics/nonco2mitigation.html

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CH4 Emissions  from Underground  Coal  Mining
 Sector Description
 Coal is an important energy source
 for many of the world's economies; it
 is used for energy generation or as a
 feedstock for industrial production.
 However, coal mining is a significant
 source of anthropogenic GHG
 emissions. Extracting coal through
 underground and surface mining
 releases CH4 stored in the coal bed and
 the surrounding geology.
                                            Emissions Reduction Potential
                                 Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the
                           United States' coal mining sector could be reduced by up to 34.5 MtC02e in 2030.
                            This accounts for 6% of the United States' total reduction potential (569 MtCC^e)
                                            in global reduction potential in 2030.
                              Coal Mining
                                 35
                            Oil & Natural
                            Gas Systems
                                                                                     Refrigeration &
                                                                                     Air Conditioning
                                                    Energy      I Waste     • lndustnal        • Agriculture
                                                                            • Processes
          Global Non-C02 Emissions
  Coal Mining sector baseline emissions are estimated
  to be 67 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030, emissions are
  projected to be 78 MtC02e, or 6% of total non-C02
         emissions in the United States.
Coal Mining
   6%
                                          Projected Emissions in 2030
                                 Emissions from the United States and other Major Emitting Countries (MtCO e)
                                                  Rest of World: 151 MtC02e
                                                                                                51
                                  -;/
                                                                              31
                                                                                                      37
   Energy
           Waste
| Industrial
 Processes
Agriculture
Other Non-C02
Sources Not Modeled
                                                                  China United States  Russia  Australia Ukraine ROW

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                             Key Points
                             •  Coal mining accounted for 9% of total U.S. anthropogenic CH4 emissions in 2010;
                                these emissions are projected to increase by 16% to 78 MtCOae by 2030.
                             •  The U.S. abatement potential is projected to be 35 MtC02e, or 44% of baseline
                                emissions from coal mining, in 2030.
                             •  Cost-effective abatement potential ($0 break-even price) is 5 Mtt^e, or 6% of
                                baseline.
                    Abatement Measures
Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices.


           VAM oxidation

         Degasification for
         pipeline injection

         Degasification for
         power generation

               Open flare

  On-site use in coal drying

  On-site use in mine boiler
                       0      5     10     15     20    25
                          Reductions achievable at costs less than $0/tC02e
                          Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tC02e

            Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030
  It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 6%, compared with the
     baseline, in 2030. An additional 38% reduction is available using
             technologies with increasingly higher costs.
                                          Reduction Potential
                                                            30
                                          38%
 Baseline: 78 MtC02e
    Residual
    Emissions
Technically Feasible
at Increasing Costs
Reductions at
No Cost
                                                 Abatement Measures
                                                 Five abatement measures were
                                                 considered in this analysis: recovery
                                                 for pipeline injection, power
                                                 generation, process heating, flaring,
                                                 and catalytic or thermal oxidation
                                                 of ventilation air methane (VAM).
                                                 These reduction technologies consist
                                                 of one or more of the following
                                                 primary components: (1) a drainage
                                                 and recovery system to  remove CH4
                                                 from the underground  coal seam,
                                                 (2) the end-use application for the
                                                 gas recovered from the  drainage
                                                 system, and (3) the VAM recovery or
                                                 mitigation system.
Abatement Potential
Approximately 44% of total annual
coal mining related CH4 emissions
in 2030 can be reduced by adopting
the suite of abatement measures
considered. The MACC results
suggest that significant reductions
in CH4 emissions can  be achieved at
break-even prices at or below
$10/tCO2e. Nearly 5 MtCO2e are
cost-effectively achievable at a break-
even price of $0/tCO2e.
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Oil   and    Natural   Gas
CH4  Emissions from Oil and Natural Gas Systems
Sector Description
Oil and natural gas systems are one of
the leading emitters of anthropogenic
CH4, releasing over 140 MtCO2e, or
23% of total U.S. CH4 emissions in
2010. CH4 emissions from the oil and
natural gas system are projected to
grow 26% between 2010 and 2030.
Future growth is largely due to the
continued expansion of domestic oil
and natural gas production in the
United States.
                                                     Emissions Reduction Potential
                                            Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the
                                        United States' oil and natural gas systems sector could be reduced by up to 140
                                         MtC02e in 2030. This accounts for 25% of the United States' total reduction
                                                       potential (569 MtC02e) in 2030.
                                                           Oil & Natural
                                                           Gas Syster-
                                         Oil & Natural
                                         Gas Systems
                                           140
                                                 Refrigeration &
                                                 Air Conditioning
                                                             Livestock
                                             Energy
                                                        Waste
                                           Industrial
                                           Processes
                                                 Agriculture
         Global Non-C02 Emissions
  Oil and Natural Gas sector baseline emissions are
   estimated to be 248 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030,
  emissions are projected to be 313 MtC02e, or 23%
         of total non-C02 emissions.

Oil & Natural Gas Systems
       23%
                                    Projected Emissions in 2030
                                           Emissions from the United States and other Major Emitting Countries (MtCO e)
                                                          Rest of World: 971 MtC02e
                                            313
                                                                    188
                                                                           107
                                                                         116
  Energy  | Waste
               | Industrial
                Processes
Agriculture
Other Non-C02
Sources Not Modeled
                                                           Russia United States Iraq Kuwait Uzbekistan ROW

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                                Key Points
                                   The technological maximum for emissions reduction potential in oil and natural gas
                                   systems in the United States is 141 MtCOae, approximately 45% of projected oil and
                                   gas related CH4 emissions in 2030.
                                   Because of the energy value of the ChU captured, EPA estimates that 84 MtCQae, or
                                   27% of the baseline emissions, can be cost-effectively reduced.
                                   Over 45% of abatement potential is achieved by adopting abatement measures in
                                   the oil and gas production segments.
                      Abatement Measures
 Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices.
   Installing plunger lift systems in gas wells

       Directed inspection & maintenance
      Installing catalytic converters on gas
              engines and turbines
   Fuel gas retrofit for BD valve - take recip.
                compressors offline *
      Replacing wet seals with dry seals in
             centrifugal compressors
      Installing surge vessels for capturing
                 blowdown vents
     Reciprocating compressor rod packing
                    (Static-Pac)
Installing flash tank separators on dehydrators
Replacing high-bleed pneumatic devices in the
               natural gas industry
Reduce emission completions for hydraulically
           fractured natural gas wells
                 Other measures
                          0   5   10   15  20  25  30   35   40  45

                               Reductions achievable at costs less than $0/tC02e
                               Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tCO e
                                                    Abatement Measures
                                                    Numerous abatement measures are
                                                    available to mitigate CH4 emissions
                                                    across the four oil and natural gas
                                                    system segments of production,
                                                    processing, transmission, and
                                                    distribution. The measures can be
                                                    applied to various components or
                                                    equipment commonly used in oil
                                                    and natural gas system segments.
                                                    The abetment measures  typically
                                                    fall into three categories: equipment
                                                    modifications/upgrades; changes
                                                    in operational practices, including
                                                    direct inspection and maintenance;
                                                    and installation of new equipment.
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             Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030
   It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 27%, compared with the
      baseline, in 2030. An additional 18% reduction is available using
               technologies with increasingly higher costs.
                                              Reduction Potential
                                       18%
                             27%
   Baseline: 313 MtC02e
      Residual
      Emissions
Technically Feasible
at Increasing Costs
Reductions at
No Cost
Abatement  Potential
In 2030, the abatement potential in
the U.S. oil and natural gas systems
sector is projected to be 140.6
MtCC>2e, or 45% of total non-CC>2
emissions. The abatement potential
drops over time to 126 MtCC^e
in 2020 before rising back to  140
MtCO2e in 2030. Over 70% of the
emissions reductions in 2030 are
achievable at prices  at or below $15.

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CH4  Emissions from  Municipal Solid Waste  (MSW) Landfills
Sector Description
Landfills produce CH4 in
combination with other landfill gases
(LFGs) through the natural process
of bacterial decomposition of organic
waste under anaerobic conditions.
LFG is generated over a period of
several decades with gas flows usually
beginning 1 to 2 years after the
waste is put in place. The amount
of CH4 generated by landfills per
country is determined by a number
of factors that include population
size, the quantity of waste disposed
of per capita, composition of the
waste disposed of, and the waste
management practices applied at the
landfill.
                                               Emissions Reduction Potential
                                   Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the
                                United States' landfill sector could be reduced by up to 14.6 MtC02e in 2030.
                                    This accounts for 3% of the United States' total reduction potential
                                                    (569 MtC02e) in 2030.
                                Landfills
                                  15
                                                  Oil & Natural
                                                  Gas Systems
                                                         Refrigeration &
                                                         Air Conditioning
                                                   Energy
                                               Waste
                                                   Industrial
                                                   Processes
                                                        Agriculture
        Global Non-C02Emissions
 Landfill sector baseline emissions are estimated to
 be 130 MtC02e in 2010.  In 2030, emissions are
   projected to be 128 MtC02e, or 10% of total
    non-CO. emissions in the United States.
                                         Projected Emissions in 2030
                         Landfills
                          10%
                                 Emissions from the United States and other Major Emitting Countries (MtCO e)
                                                  Rest of World: 632 MtC02e
                                                                                          40
 Energy
         Waste
| Industrial
 Processes
Agriculture
Other Non-C02
Sources Not Modeled
                                                                United States  Mexico  China Russia Malaysia  ROW

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                              Key Points
                                 Abatement potential from U.S. landfills is 15 MtCC^e, roughly 11% of projected
                                 landfill baseline emissions in 2030.
                                 Abatement measures with costs below $20/tC02e can achieve a 9% reduction in
                                 baseline emissions.
                                 Abatement measures include (1) conversion of landfill gas to energy and (2) waste
                                 diversion projects that use waste in the production of new products.
                    Abatement Measures
Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices.
         Electricity generation with
             reciprocating engine
            Flaring of landfill gas
    Landfill gas recovery for direct use
      Electricity generation with CHP
 Electricity generation with gas turbine
Electricity generation with microturbine
             Anaerobic digestion
             Enhanced oxidation
            Waste to energy (WTE)
                Pa per recycling
Mechanical biological treatment (MBT)
                  Composting
                           0123456
                           I  Reductions achievable at costs less than $0/tC02e
                           1  Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tC02e

             Emissions Reduction Potential,  2030
    It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 1.3%, compared to the
      baseline, in 2030. An additional 10% reduction is available using
               technologies with increasingly higher costs.

                                            Reduction Potential
                                                            1%
 Baseline: 128 MtC02e
    Residual
    Emissions
Technically Feasible
at Increasing Costs
Reductions at
No Cost
                                                   Several abatement measures are
                                                   available to control landfill CH4
                                                   emissions, and they are commonly
                                                   grouped into three major categoric
                                                   (1) collection and flaring, (2) LFG
                                                   utilization systems (LFG capture fc
                                                   energy use), and (3) enhanced wasi
                                                   diversion practices (e.g., recycling a
                                                   reuse programs). Although flaring L
                                                   currently the most common abatement
                                                   measure, LFG utilization options may
                                                   be more cost-effective. Under favorable
                                                   market conditions, recycling and
                                                   reuse or composting alternatives mr
                                                   provide additional means for reduc
                                                   emissions from landfills.
Abatement  Potential
Abatement potential in the solid
waste landfill sector is estimated to
approximately 14.6 MtCC^e of tot
annual emissions  in 2030, or 11% <
U.S. landfill baseline emissions. Thi
MACC results suggest that there ar
significant opportunities for CH4
reductions in the  landfill sector at cost:
below $20 per tCC^e of emissions
reduced. Furthermore, approximate
1.7 MtCO2e of reductions are  cost-
effective.

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Wastewater
CH4  Emissions from Municipal Wastewater Systems
Sector Description
Wastewater is the sixth largest emitter of
anthropogenic CH4 in the United States,
accounting for 25 MtCO2e in 2010;
wastewater treatment is also a source of
N2O emissions. Domestic and industrial
wastewater treatment activities can lead
to venting and fugitive emissions of CH4,
which are produced when organic material
decomposes under anaerobic conditions
of wastewater in a facility. Developed
countries like the United States use aerobic
wastewater treatment systems to minimize
the amount of CH4 generated.
                                             Emissions Reduction Potential
                                   Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the
                                United States' wastewater sector could be reduced by up to 14 MtC02e in 2030.
                                    This accounts for 3% of the United States' total reduction potential
                                                   (569 MtC02e) in 2030.
                                                  Oil & Natural
                                                  Gas Systems
                                 Wastewater
                                    14
                                                                  Refrigeration &
                                                                  Air Conditioning
                                             Energy
                                                Waste
                                   Industrial
                                   Processes
Agriculture
        Global Non-C02 Emissions
 Wastewater sector baseline emissions are estimated
  to be 25 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030, emissions are
    projected to be 30 MtC02e, or 2% of total
    non-CO. emissions in the United States.
                         Wastewater
                            2%
                                     Projected Emissions in 2030
                                   Emissions from the United States and other Major Emitting Countries (MtCO e)
                                                   Rest of World: 252 MtC02e


                                                                r
                                                              78
  Energy
Waste  H Industrial  | Agriculture
       Processes
Other Non-C02
Sources Not Modeled
                                                          China Nigeria  Mexico  India United States  ROW

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                              Key  Points
                              •  U.S. CH4 emissions from wastewater treatment accounted for 25 MtCChe in 2010 a
                                 are projected to grow 20% by 2030.
                                 The estimated maximum abatement potential in 2030 is 14 MtCC^e, or 48% of
                                 projected wastewater emissions.
                                 Given the existing level of wastewater treatment infrastructure present in the Unil
                                 States, options for reducing emissions in this sector are limited to the  highest cos
                                 abatement measures.
                     Abatement Measures
 Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices.
      Septic tank to aerobic WWTP
   Wastewater treatment plant with
anaerobic sludge digester with co-gen
         Latrine to aerobic WWTP
      Open sewer to aerobic WWTP
      I
                          0     2      4     6     8     10    12
                          •  Reductions achievable at costs less than $0/tC02e
                              Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tCO,e
                          Abatement Measun
                          CH4 emissions from wastewater ca
                          be significantly reduced by improvi
                          infrastructure and equipment.
                          Abatement measures available in tb
                          wastewater sector include installing
                          aerobic wastewater treatment plant
                          on an individual or centralized seal
                          and installing anaerobic wastewatei
                          treatment plants with cogeneration
                          Factors such as economic resources
                          population density, government, ar
                          technical capabilities are important
                                                  mitigating emissions from the
                                                  wastewater sector.
              Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030
     There are no cost-effective reductions available in the wastewater sector
     in 2030. However, a 48% reduction is available using technologies with
                       increasingly higher costs.
                                            Reduction Potential
  Baseline: 30 MtC02e

     Residual     |
     Emissions
Technically Feasible
at Increasing Costs
Reductions at
No Cost
Abatement Potential
The U.S. abatement potential of
CH4 from wastewater treatment is
10 MtCO2e in 2020 rising to 14
MtCO2e in 2030. This level of CH
mitigation is considered to be the
technological maximum abatement
potential because high-cost abatem
measures in the wastewater treatme
sector significantly constrain the
abatement achievable at lower carK
prices.

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Nitric   and  Adipic  Acid   Production
N20  Emissions from Nitric and Adipic Acid  Production
Sector Description
Nitric and adipic acid are commonly
used as feedstock in manufacturing
a variety of commercial products,
particularly fertilizer and synthetic
fibers. The process used to produce
nitric and adipic acid generates
significant quantities of N2O as a
by-product. The production of nitric
and adipic acid is expected to increase
over time, driven by continued growth
in demand for fertilizer and synthetic
fibers.
                                                  Emissions Reduction Potential
                                        Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the
                                      United States' nitric and adipic acid production sector could be reduced by
                                      up to 27 MtC02e in 2030. This accounts for 5% of the United States' total
                                                 reduction potential (569 MtC02e) in 2030.
                                       Nitric and
                                      Adipic Acid
                                      Production
                                         27
                        Oil & Natural
                        Gas Systems
                                       Refrigeration &
                                       Air Conditioning
                                            Energy
                                                      Waste
                                 Industrial
                                 Processes
                                                          Agriculture
      Global Non-C02 Emissions
Nitric and Adipic Acid Production sector baseline
emissions are estimated to be 29 MtC02e in 2010.
In 2030, emissions are projected to be 37 MtC02e,
    or 3% of total non-CO emissions in
         the United States.
                                   Projected Emissions in 2030
                                          Emissions from the United States and other Major Emitting Countries (MtC02e)
                                                         Rest of World: 57 MtC02e


                        Nitric & Adipic
                            Acid
                          Production
                            3%
                                                                  ~
  Energy
        Waste
             | Industrial
              Processes
Agriculture
Other Non-C02
Sources Not Modeled
                                                       United States South Korea Brazil China Ukraine  ROW

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                               Key Points
                               •  The U.S. abatement potential is 27 MtCOje, or 72% of projected nitric and ad
                                  acid production related emissions in 2030.
                               •  A 55% reduction in emissions is achievable at carbon prices below $20.
                               •  Abatement measure selection is driven by facility design constraints and/or
                                  operating costs.
                     Abatement Measures
 Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices.
   Tail-gas catalytic decomposition

   Non-selective catalytic reduction

Catalytic decomposition in the burner

      Homogeneous decomposition
                in the burner
           Thermal destruction
                              1234567

                             Reductions achievable at costs less than $0/tC02e
                             Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tCO,e
              Emissions Reduction Potential,  2030
    There are no cost-effective reductions available in the nitric and adipic acid
     production sector in 2030. However, a 72% reduction is available using
                technologies with increasingly higher costs.
                                            Reduction Potential
   Baseline: 37 MtC02e
      Residual       | Technically Feasible
      Emissions       at Increasing Costs
Reductions at
No Cost
Abatement Measures
N2O emissions can be mitigated
through a number of alternative
abatement measures. In nitric acid
production, reduction technologies
are categorized by their location in
the production process. Secondary
reduction technologies, such as
homogeneous thermal decomposition
and catalytic decomposition, are
installed at an intermediate point
in the production process. Tertiary
reduction technologies, such
as catalytic decomposition and
nonselective catalytic reduction
units, are applied to the tail gas
streams at the end of the production
process. The implementation of one
technology over another is driven
largely by facility design constraints
and/or cost considerations. Thermal
destruction is the single abatement
measure considered in this analysis.


Abatement Potential
The U.S. abatement potential in
the nitric and adipic acid sector is
approximately 27 MtCC^e of total
annual emissions in 2030, or 72%
of projected baseline emissions from
this sector. The MACC results show
that  maximum reduction potential is
achievable at break-even prices below
$50/tCO2e.

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Refrigeration   and   Air  Conditioning
HFC  Emissions from Refrigeration  and Air Conditioning Systems
Sector Description
Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) used
in refrigeration and air conditioning
(AC) systems are emitted to the
atmosphere during equipment
operation, repair, and disposal, unless
recovered, recycled, and ultimately
destroyed. Equipment is being
retrofitted or replaced to use HFCs
that are substitutes for ozone-depleting
substances. Some of the most common
HFCs are HFC-134a, R-404A,
R-410A, R-407C, and R-507A.
                                                 Emissions Reduction Potential
                                       Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the
                                     United States' refrigeration & air conditioning sector could be reduced by up to
                                        243 MtC02e in 2030. This accounts for 43% of the United States'
                                              total reduction potential (569 MtC02e) in 2030.
                                                                V  «

                                                                •  •
                                                      Oil & Natural
                                                      Gas Systems
                                     Refrigeration &
                                    Air Conditioning
                                        243
                                                                     Refrigeration &
                                                                     Air Conditioning
                                          Energy
                                                    Waste
                                         Industrial
                                         Processes
Agriculture
       Global Non-C02 Emissions
 Refrigeration & Air Conditioning sector baseline
emissions are estimated to be 114 MtC02e in 2010.
   In 2030, emissions are projected to be 317
   MtC02e, or 24% of total non-C02 emissions
         in the United States.
                                  Projected Emissions in 2030
                                         Emissions from the United States and other Major Emitting Countries (MtC02e)
                                                       Rest of World: 527 MtC02e

                          Refrigeration &
                          Air Conditioning
                             24%

  Energy
        Waste
             | Industrial
              Processes
Agriculture   Other Non-C02
         Sources Not Modeled
                                                     China United States South Korea  Russia Jaoan ROW

-------
                               Key Points
                                                                                   .edis243MtC02e,or77%of
•  The U.S. abatement potentia. ..„	„ M|^v,^..- *,«.,	„*..., ...«.....	^, „. ..,~ „.
   projected emissions from this sector in 2030.
•  43% of the baseline 2030 emissions can be abated using cost-effective mitigation
   measures ($0 pertCl^e).
•  This sector is the second largest source of non-C02 abatement potential in the
   United States, accounting for 24% of total abatement potential across all non-CC^
   emitting sectors in 2030.
                     Abatement Measures
Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices.
           R-410A to R-32 for unitary AC
 R-32 with MCHX in New Unitary AC Equipment
   Refrigerant recovery at disposal for existing
             refrigeration/AC equipment
      Enhanced HFO-1234yf in motor vehicle
                   air-conditioners
      HFC secondary loop in large retail food
   C02 transcritical system in large retail food
  HFO-1234yf in motor vehicle air-conditioners
      MicroChannel heat exchangers (MCHX)
                  in  new equipment
      Distributed systems in large retail food
  Refrigerant recovery at servicing for existing
                  small equipment
      NH3 secondary loop in large retail food
    Leak Repair for Existing Large Equipment
   NH3 and C02 in cold storage and industrial •
             process refrigeration (IPR) '
                  Other measures |
                            0    5    10   15    20   25   30   35   40
                              I  Reductions achievable at costs less than $0/tC02e
                            I  Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tCO e
                                           Abatement  Measures
                                           HFC abatement measures are
                                           categorized into three categories:
                                           (1) retrofit of existing systems to
                                           use lower-GWP refrigerants; (2)
                                           new cooling systems that use lower-
                                           GWP refrigerants and/or reduce the
                                           charge size; and (3) better refrigerant
                                           management practices that reduce
                                           emissions during use, servicing,
                                           and disposal. Such options are
                                           analyzed for end uses such as retail
                                           food refrigeration systems, window
                                           and unitary AC equipment, motor
                                           vehicle AC systems, and other types
                                           of cooling systems.
              Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030
   It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 43%, compared with the
      baseline, in 2030. An additional 34% reduction is available using
               technologies with increasingly higher costs.
                                              Reduction Potential
  Baseline: 317 MtC02e
     Residual       |  Technically Feasible
     Emissions         at Increasing Costs
                Reductions at
                No Cost
Abatement Potential
The U.S. abatement potential from
refrigeration and AC abatement is
calculated to be 243 MtCO2e in
2030, or 77% of baseline emissions
from this sector; additional
uncalculated options are explored
qualitatively. The MACC results
show that 138 MtCO2e, or 43%
of 2030 emissions, can be reduced
at a cost of $0 by implementing
"no-regret" options.  All abatement
options quantified are achievable at
mitigation costs below $100/tCO2e.

-------
          vent
HFC Emissions from Solvent Use
Sector Description
HFC solvents are primarily used in
precision cleaning applications and
electronic cleaning applications.
Precision cleaning requires a high level
of cleanliness to ensure the satisfactory
performance of the product being
cleaned, and electronics cleaning is
defined as a process that removes
contaminants, primarily solder flux
residues, from electronics or circuit
boards. It is assumed that eventually
approximately 90% of the solvent
consumed in a given year is emitted,
while 10% of the solvent  is disposed
of with the sludge that remains.
                                                        Emissions Reduction Potential
                                             Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the
                                         United States' solvent use sector could be reduced by up to 1.3 MtC02e in 2030.
                                           This accounts for 0.23% of the United States' total reduction potential (569
                                                               MtC02e) in 2030.
                                                                          p  m
                                                                          •>
                                                              Oil & Natural
                                                              Gas Systems
                                                                               Refrigeration &
                                                                               Air Conditioning
                                                Energy
                                                            Waste
                                     Industrial
                                     Processes
                                                                Agriculture
       Global Non-C02Emissions
Solvents sector baseline emissions are estimated to
 be 1.3 MtC02e in 2010.  In 2030, emissions are
   projected to be 2 MtC02e, or 0.1% of total
   non-C02 emissions in the United States.
                            Solvents
                             0.1%
                                      Projected Emissions in 2030
                                              Emissions from the United States and other Major Emitting Countries (MtCCLe)
                                                              Rest of World: 2.7 MtC02e


 Energy
         Waste
               | Industrial
                Processes
Agriculture
Other Non-C02
Sources Not Modeled
                                                            China United States Japan Russia South Korea ROW

-------
                              Key Points
                             •  Emissions from the solvents sector are expected to grow by 50%, growing from 1.3
                                to 1.9 MtC02e between 2010 and 2030.
                             •  The maximum abatement potential in the solvents sector from the options analyzed
                                is estimated to  be 1.3 MtCOae, or 66% of the projected sector baseline in 2030.
                             •  In 2030,1.1 MtCOae of emissions reductions are cost-effective (i.e., $0/tC02e or
                                lower break-even prices).
                    Abatement Measures
Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices.
        Substitute HFE solvents for
                HFC-4310mee
Replace HFC cleaning system with NIK
         aqueous cleaning system
Replace HFC cleaning system with NIK
     Semi-aqueous cleaning system
        Retrofit existing equipment
        I
        I
                         0.0    0.2   0.4   0.6    0.8    1.0    1.
                          •  Reductions achievable at costs less than $0/tC02e
                          1  Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tCO e
                         Abatement Measures
                         Four abatement options were
                         identified for the solvent sector:
                         (1) replacement of HFCs with HFEs,
                         (2) retrofitting of vapor degreaser
                         equipment to reduce emissions,
                         (3) transition to not-in-kind (NIK)
                         aqueous cleaning, and (4) transition
                         to NIK semi-aqueous cleaning.
                         These technologies have reduction
                         efficiencies of between 50% and
                         100%. Retrofitting equipment and
                         controls is limited to facilities that
                         have not already been retrofitted.
                         Transition to NIK aqueous and NIK
                         semi-aqueous applicability is limited
                         to some electronic cleaning processes.
             Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030
   It would be cost effective to reduce emissions by 55%, compared with the
      baseline, in 2030. An additional 11% reduction is available using
               technologies with increasingly higher costs.
                                           Reduction Potential
  Baseline: 2 MtC02e
     Residual
     Emissions
J Technically Feasible
  at Increasing Costs
Reductions at
No Cost
Abatement Potential
The U.S. abatement potential in
2020 and 2030 is 0.8 and 1.3
MtCC>2e, respectively. In 2030,
reduction of 1.1 MtCO2e , or 55%,
of total projected sector emissions, is
achievable at mitigation costs below
$0/tCO2e. Additional abatement
of approximately 0.2 MtCC^e is
achievable at mitigation costs greater
than $50/tCO2e.

-------
Foams

HFC Emissions from  Foams Manufacturing, Use,  and Disposal
Sector Description
Foam is used as insulation in a wide
range of equipment, structures, and
other common products. Foams
were historically produced with
ozone-depleting substances (ODSs),
which have been phased out under
the Montreal Protocol in developed
countries and are being phased out
in developing countries. In some end
uses, HFC blowing agents have largely
replaced ODSs. HFC emissions from
the foams sector were approximately
6.1 MtCO2e in 2010 and are
projected to increase substantially to
16.5 MtCO2e and 30.5 MtCO2e by
2020 and 2030, respectively.
             Emissions Reduction Potential
   Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the
United States' foams sector could be reduced by up to 17.5 MtC02e in 2030.
   This accounts for 3% of the United States' total reduction potential
                   (569 MtC02e) in 2030.
                    Oil & Natural
                    Gas Systems
                                    Refrigeration &
                                    Air Conditioning
                                               Energy
                 Waste
Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
        Global Non-C02 Emissions
 Foams sector baseline emissions are estimated to
   be 6 MtC02e in 2010.  In 2030, emissions are
    projected to be 31 MtC02e, or 2% of total
    non-CO. emissions in the United States.
                                       Projected Emissions in 2030
    Emissions from the United States and other Major Emitting Countries (MtCO e)
                     Rest of World: 17 MtC02e


                                                                                           X26

  Energy | Waste H Industrial    Agriculture  |  Other Non-C02
                Processes              Sources Not Modeled
                                                            United States  Japan  Germany  France  Italy  ROW

-------
                               Key Points
                              •  In the United States, HFC emissions from foams are projected to quintuple over the next
                                 20 years.
                              •  Abatement measures include replacing MFCs with low-GWP blowing agents and proper
                                 recovery and disposal of foam present in existing systems at their end of life.
                              •  In 2030, the U.S. abatement potential quantified is 12.6 MtCIhe (41% of business-as-usual
                                 [BAU] emissions from the foam sector) at cost-effective prices ($0 per tC02e). At higher
                                 prices, the abatement options analyzed have the potential to abate up to  17.5 MtC02e (57%
                                 of BAU emissions) in 2030.
                    Abatement Measures
Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices.
           Substitute HFC with HCCom

             Substitute HFC with HC

    Substitute LCD-Alcohol for HFC134aC02

         Appliance EOL-manual recovery

  Appliance end of life (EOL)-fully automated

         Substitute C02 for HFC245faC02

         Continuous and discontinuous:
              HFC 134a switch to HC
         Substitute HC for HFC245faCO,
    One component HFC- 134a switch to HC I
    One component HFC-152a switch to HC
                            012345
                           I Reductions achievable at costs less than $0/tC02e
                           I Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tC02e

             Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030
   It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 41%, compared with the
      baseline, in 2030. An additional 16% reduction is available using
               technologies with increasingly higher costs.

                                            Reduction Potential
  Baseline: 31 MtCO,e
   |  Residual
     Emissions
|  Technically Feasible
  at Increasing Costs
Reductions at
No Cost

                                                     Abatement Measures
                                                     Abatement options considered
                                                     include replacing HFCs with various
                                                     low-GWP blowing agents and
                                                     properly recovering and disposing
                                                     of foam contained in equipment
                                                     and other products after its useful
                                                     life. More specifically, the use of
                                                     hydrocarbon or CO2 blowing
                                                     agents instead of HFCs is assessed
                                                     quantitatively as an abatement
                                                     measure in the foam sector noting
                                                     that other low-GWP agents (e.g.,
                                                     HFO-1234ze, -1233zd[E]) would
                                                     achieve similar abatement levels.
Abatement  Potential
The total abatement potential in
the foams sector from the options
explored is 17.5 MtCO2e—57% of
total annual foams sector emissions
in 2030—while 12.6 MtCO2e, or
41%, is achievable at cost-effective
carbon prices for the same year.
Total replacement of HFC blowing
agents in foams is limited in the near
term by the installed base of foam
products. All abatement options
analyzed replace blowing agents
in newly manufactured foams or
destroy the blowing agent only at the
foam's natural end of life.

-------
Aerosols
HFC  Emissions from Aerosols  Product  Use
Sector Description
Aerosol propellant formulations
containing HFCs are present in a
wide variety of consumer products—
such as hairsprays, deodorants, and
cleaning supplies—as well as technical
and medical aerosols. Baseline HFC
emissions from aerosols in the United
States were estimated at 8.9 MtCC^e
in 2010 and are expected to increase
to 15.6MtCO2eby2030.
             Emissions Reduction Potential
  Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the
 United States' aerosols product use sector could be reduced by up to 10.3
MtC02e in 2030. This accounts for 2% of the United States' total reduction
               potential (569 MtC02e) in 2030.
  Aerosols
Product Use
    10
Oil & Natural
Gas Systems
                                                                                 Refrigeration &
                                                                                 Air Conditioning
                                                  Energy
                  Waste
           Industrial
           Processes
Agriculture
           Global Non-C02 Emissions
   Aerosols Product Use sector baseline emissions are
      estimated to be 9 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030,
   emissions are projected to be 16 MtC02e, or 1% of
      total non-C02 emissions in the United States.
                                        Projected Emissions in 2030
                              Aerosols
                            Product Use
                                1%
    Emissions from the United States and other Major Emitting Countries (MtC02e)
                    Rest of World: 49 MtC02e


  Energy || Waste  | Industrial |   Agriculture    Other Non-C02
                 Processes              Sources Not Modeled
                                                              China   United States  India  Russia  Mexico  ROW

-------
                              Key  Points
                              •  U.S. baseline emissions in 2010 for aerosols were estimated at 8.9 MtCOae and projected to
                                 climb to 13.0 MtC02e and 15.6 MtC02e by 2020 and 2030, respectively.
                              •  Five abatement measures were considered for the aerosols sector, including transitioning
                                 away from HFC use to lower-GWP propellants and producing alternative nonaerosol
                                 consumer products, such as a stick or roller.
                                 Relatively low-cost abatement measures (<$5/tC02e) are projected to be capable of
                                 mitigating 53% of the sector emissions in 2030.
                    Abatement Measures
Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices.
       Substitute HC for HFC-134a

       Substitute NIK for HFC-1523

             Dry powder inhalers

       Substitute NIK for HFC-1343

 Substitute HFO-1234ze for HFC-1343

       Substitute HC for HFC-152a

 Substitute HFO-1234ze for HFC-152a

   Substitute HFC-1523 for HFC-1343
                          0.0    0.5    1.0    1.5   2.0   2.5

                          I  Reductions achievable at costs less than $0/tC02e
                            I  Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tC02f

             Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030
   It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 48%, compared with the
      baseline, in 2030. An additional 18% reduction is available  using
               technologies with increasingly higher costs.

                                            Reduction Potential
  Baseline: 16 MtC02e
     Residual       ]  Technically Feasible
     Emissions        at Increasing Costs
Reductions at
No Cost
                          Abatement Measures
                          Abatement options available to
                          reduce emissions for consumer
                          aerosol products include
                          transitioning to replacement
                          propellants with lower GWPs—
                          HCs, HFO-1234ze, and HFC-152a
                          (where HFC-134a is used)—and
                          converting to an NIK alternative,
                          such as sticks, rollers, or finger/
                          trigger pumps.
Abatement Potential
The U.S. abatement potential
from aerosols containing
HFCs is estimated to be 10.3
MtCO2e—66% of baseline
emissions from this sector and
3% of total annual emissions
from all sectors that use ODS
substitutes in 2030. At $5 per
tCO2e, the abatement potential is
estimated to be  53.4% of baseline
sector emissions, or 8.3 MtCC^e.
Furthermore, the abatement
potential at break-even prices
<$0 per tCO2e  is 7.5 MtCO2e
(48.2% of baseline sector emissions)
in 2030.

-------
Fire   Protection
HFC and  RFC  Emissions from  Fire Protection Equipment
Sector Description
The fire protection sector emits HFCs
and PFCs when total flooding fire
suppression systems and portable fire
extinguishers are used. U.S. GHG
emissions from this sector were
estimated at 0.8 MtCO2e in 2010.
Under the baseline scenario, emissions
are projected to increase to 2.2
MtCO2e in 2030.
                                       Emissions Reduction Potential
                             Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the
                          United States' fire protection sector could be reduced by up to 0.14 MtC02e in
                             2030. This accounts for 0.02% of the United States' total reduction
                                         potential (569 MtC02e) in 2030.
                              Fire
                            Protection
                             0.14
                                             Oil & Natural
                                             Gas Systems
                                                                             Refrigeration &
                                                                             Air Conditioning
                                               Energy
                                           Waste
                                    Industrial
                                    Processes
Agriculture
        Global Non-C02 Emissions
   Fire Protection sector baseline emissions are
  estimated to be 0.8 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030,
 emissions are projected to be 2.2 MtC02e, or 0.2%
  of total non-CO. emissions in the United States.
  Energy
         Waste
                           Fire
                         Protection
                          0.2%
| Industrial  '  Agriculture
 Processes
                                      Projected Emissions in 2030
                              Emissions from the United States and other Major Emitting Countries (MtCO e)
                                              Rest of World: 36 MtC02e

                                               V
                                               *f

Other Non-C02
Sources Not Modeled
                                                           Australia  China  Japan  Poland  United States  ROW

-------
                                 Key Points
                                    GHG emissions from fire protection equipment are projected to more than double between
                                    2010 and 2030.
                                    Total flooding fire suppression abatement options involve replacing MFCs and
                                    perfluorocarbons (PFCs) with lower-GWP alternatives, including both in-kind and NIK
                                    measures.
                                    There is no abatement potential in the U.S. fire protection equipment sector in 2030.
                       Abatement Measures
    Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices.
FK-5-1-12 in new Class A total
        flooding applications
           Inert gas systems
         Water mist systems
                         0.00 0.01 0.02  0.03 0.04 0.05  0.06 0.07 0.08

                              Reductions achievable at costs less than $0/tC02e
                          1  Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tCO,e
                          Abatement  Measures
                          The abatement options explored
                          replace HFCs and PFCs with zero-
                          or low-GWP extinguishing agents
                          to reduce CO2e emissions from the
                          fire protection sector's total flooding
                          equipment. The alternatives to
                          HFCs and PFCs in total flooding
                          equipment are both in-kind gaseous
                          agents and NIK options. The in-
                          kind gaseous alternatives include
                          CO2, inert gases,  and fluorinated
                          ketones, and the NIK alternatives
                          include varying materials and systems
                          such as dispersed  and condensed
                          aerosol extinguishing systems, water
                          sprinklers, water mist, foam, and
                          inert gas generators.
                Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030
      There are no cost-effective reductions available in the fire protection sector
          in 2030. However, a 6% reduction is available using technologies
                       with increasingly higher costs.
                                              Reduction Potential
                                                              0%
     Baseline: 2 MtC02e
        Residual       |  Technically Feasible
        Emissions        at Increasing Costs
Reductions at
No Cost
Abatement Potential
From the options quantified, U.S.
abatement potential of emissions
from total flooding fire suppression
applications is projected to be 0.14
MtCO2e, or nearly 7% of baseline
sector emissions, in 2030. There is
little abatement potential at carbon
prices below $50 per tCO2e in
2030, which is projected to have
the potential to abate 41.3 MtCO2e
from the fire protection sector, or  6%
of baseline sector emissions.

-------
Aluminum   P
                                      tibn
RFC  Emissions from  Primary Aluminum Production
Sector Description
The primary aluminum production
industry produces PFC emissions
during brief process upset conditions
in the aluminum smelting process.
PFCs from primary aluminum
production in the United States are
projected to decrease by 2%, from 3.7
MtCO2e in 2010 to 3.6 MtCO2e in
2030.
                                      Emissions Reduction Potential
                            Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the
                          United States' primary aluminum production sector could be reduced by up to
                            2.1 MtC02e in 2030. This accounts for 0.37% of the United States'
                                   total reduction potential (569 MtC02e) in 2030.
                           Aluminum
                           Production
                              2
                                             Energy
                                          Waste
                                   Industrial
                                   Processes
                                                            Agriculture
       Global Non-C02 Emissions
  Primary Aluminum Production sector baseline
emissions are estimated to be 3.7 MtC02e in 2010.
In 2030, emissions are projected to be 3.6 MtC02e
    or 0.3% of total non-C02 emissions in
          the United States.
                                   Projected Emissions in 2030
                             Emissions from the United States and other Major Emitting Countries (MtC02e)
                                             Rest of World: 9 MtC02e
                           Primary
                      Aluminum Production
                           0.3%
 Energy
        Waste
| Industrial
 Processes
Agriculture
Other Non-C02
Sources Not Modeled


                                                        China  United States Russia  Canada  Australia ROW

-------
                              Key Points
                                PFC emissions from primary aluminum production represent the fourth largest
                                source of fluorinated greenhouse gas (F-GHG) emissions in the U.S. industrial sector.
                                Primary abatement measures include installation of or upgrades to process
                                computer control systems and the installation of systems to allow more precise
                                alumina feeding.
                                Abatement measures in this sector have the potential to reduce over half of the
                                projected baseline emissions.
                    Abatement Measures
Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices.

Minor retrofit (process computer control
                systems only)

Major retrofit (process computer control
   systems + alumina point feeding)
                              Reductions achievable at costs less than $0/tC02e
                              Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tCO,e
                                                 Abatement Measures
                                                 Abatement options in the primary
                                                 aluminum production sector are pri-
                                                 marily associated with installing or
                                                 upgrading process computer control
                                                 systems and alumina point-feed sys-
                                                 tem. The options considered involve
                                                 (1) a minor retrofit to upgrade the
                                                 process computer control systems
                                                 and (2) a major retrofit to the pro-
                                                 cess computer control systems cou-
                                                 pled with the installation of alumina
                                                 point-feed systems.
             Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030
    There are no cost-effective reductions available in the primary aluminum
      production sector in 2030. However, a 58% reduction is available
             using technologies with increasingly higher costs.
                                           Reduction Potential
  Baseline: 4 MtC02e
     Residual
     Emissions
Technically Feasible
at Increasing Costs
Reductions at
No Cost
Abatement Potential
U.S. abatement potential in
the primary aluminum sector
is projected to be 2.1 MtCC^e,
or nearly 58% of baseline sector
emissions in 2030. There are no
cost-effective reductions  available in
2030 for this sector, but  mitigation
is feasible with the adoption of more
costly mitigation measures. In 2030,
mitigation measures that cost less
than or equal to $30/tCO2e have
the potential to reduce emissions by
1.7 MtCO2e, or 81% of the total
abatement potential.

-------
HCFC-22  Production
Fluorinated Greenhouse  Gas (F-GHG)  Emissions from HCFC-22 Productio
Sector Description
Chlorodifluoromethane (HCFC-22)
is used in emissive applications (air
conditioning and refrigeration) as well
as in feedstock for synthetic polymer
production. The production of HCFC-22
generates HFC-23 as a by-product, which
is separated as a vapor from the condensed
HCFC-22; emissions occur through
HFC-23 venting to the atmosphere.
HFC-23 emissions were estimated at 128
MtCO2e and are projected to increase to
259 and 286 MtCO2e  in 2020 and 2030,
respectively. Because HCFC-22 depletes
stratospheric ozone, its production is
being phased out under the Montreal
Protocol in areas apart from feedstock
production.
                                    Emissions Reduction Potential
                           It is assumed that HCFC-22 production facilities in the United States
                          have voluntarily adopted measures to control emissions and the baseline
                         represents residual emissions. Hence, the United States has no additional
                                       abatement potential in 2030.
                          HCFC-22
                          Production
                             0
                                 Oil & Natu
                                 GasSyste
                                                Refrigeration &
                                                Air Conditioning
                             Energy
                               Waste
                                 Industrial
                                 Processes
Agriculture
       Global Non-C02 Emissions
 HCFC-22 Production sector baseline emissions are
  estimated to be 12 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030,
 emissions are projected to be 6 MtC02e, or 0.5%
  of total non-CO. emissions in the United States.
                                   Projected Emissions in 2030
                          HCFC-22
                         Production
                          0.5%
                            Emissions from the United States and other Major Emitting Countries (MtC02e)
                                           Rest of World: 12 MtC02e

                                            29
  Energy
         Waste
| Industrial
 Processes
Agriculture
Other Non-C02
Sources Not Modeled
                                                       China   India  Mexico   Russia   United States  ROW

-------
                              Key Points

                                 Existing voluntary measures adopted by HCFC-22 producers in the United States mean that
                                 additional abatement from domestic sources will be limited in the future.
                                 Although the United States is projected to have no abatement in this sector, it remains an
                                 important opportunity for additional abatement internationally in other HCFC-producing
                                 countries that do not have abatement measures in place.
                                 Thermal oxidation is the only abatement option considered for the HCFC-22 production sector.
                                 The maximum abatement potential is achievable at costs below $1 per tC02e.
                    Abatement Measures
Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices.

      Thermal oxidation   o
                          Reductions achievable at costs less than $0/tC02e
                          Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tCO,e
                                                                  Abatement  Measures
                                                                  Thermal oxidation is the only
                                                                  abatement option considered
                                                                  in this analysis for the HCFC-
                                                                  22 production sector. Thermal
                                                                  oxidation is a demonstrated
                                                                  technology that oxidizes HFC-
                                                                  23 to CO2, hydrogen fluoride,
                                                                  and water for the destruction of
                                                                  halogenated organic compounds.
                                                                  This process is assumed to be
                                                                  compatible with all facilities.
             Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030
   The United States has no additional abatement potential because it is as-
  sumed that existing voluntary actions have already reduced emissions by the
         maximum potential in 2030. Additional reductions are not
       technologically feasible based on the current suite of abatement
                   measures available in this sector.
 Baseline: 6 MtC02e
Residual
Emissions
                   Technically Feasible
                   at Increasing Costs
Reductions at
No Cost
Abatement Potential
The baseline emissions from
HCFC-22 production facilities
in the United States represent
residual emissions from facilities
with abatement measures already
in place. For this reason, the
abatement potential is zero for the
United States. Despite the lack of
domestic abatement opportunities,
this sector remains an important
source of low-cost abatement
opportunities internationally.

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                                         '^•^^  .fvl
Semiconductor  Manufacturing
F-GHG Emissions from Semiconductor Manufacturing
Sector Description
The semiconductor industry uses
several F-GHGs, including sulfur
hexafluoride (SFg), nitrogen
trifluoride (NF3), and PFCs during
fabrication. Trace amounts of these
gases are incidentally released into
the atmosphere through normal
fabrication activities. In 2010, 4.5
MtCO2e of emissions were produced
from the U.S. semiconductor sector.
                                   Emissions Reduction Potential
                          Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the
                         United States' semiconductor manufacturing sector could be reduced by
                         up to 0.9 MtC02e in 2030. This accounts for 0.16% of the United States'
                                total reduction potential (569 MtC02e) in 2030.
                                   Semiconductor
                                   Manufacturing
                                      0.88
                                        Energy
                                     Waste
                                       Industrial
                                       Processes
                                            Agriculture
       Global Non-C02 Emissions
  Semiconductor Manufacturing sector baseline
 emissions are estimated to be 4.5 MtC02e in 2010.
    In 2030, emissions are projected to be
    4.5 MtC02e, or 0.3% of total non-C02
      emissions in the United States.
                                Projected Emissions in 2030
              JPk
                          Emissions from the United States and other Major Emitting Countries (MtC02e)
                                        Rest of World: 4 MtC02e

                                                                        3
                       Semiconductor
                       Manufacturing
                         0.3%
  Energy
        Waste
| Industrial
 Processes
Agriculture
Other Non-C02
Sources Not Modeled
                                                  China United States Japan Singapore South Korea ROW

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                             Key Points
                               Baseline emissions from semiconductor manufacturing in the United States will
                               remain constant between 2010 and 2030.
                               The U.S. abatement potential is 1 MtC02e in 2013.
                               10% of the total abatement potential in this sector is achievable at costs at or
                               below$30/tC02ein2013.
                   Abatement Measures
Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices.


          Thermal abatement

            NF3 remote clean

            Gas replacement

         Process optimization I

          Catalytic abatement

           Plasma abatement
                        0.00       0.25        0.50
                          • Reductions achievable at costs less than $0/tCO
                            I Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/t
            Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030
  It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 0.85%, compared with the
      baseline, in 2030. An additional 19% reduction is  available using
              technologies with increasingly higher costs.
                                         Reduction Potential
                                                        1%
 Baseline: 4 MtC02e
    Residual
    Emissions
Technically Feasible
at Increasing Costs
Reductions at
No Cost
Abatement Measures
Despite rapid growth between
2000 and 2010, the semiconductor
manufacturing industry experienced
a stark decline in F-GHG emissions,
decreasing from 7 MtCO2e in
2000 to 4.5 MtCO2e in 2010.
This decline can be attributed to
voluntary emissions reduction goals
set by the World Semiconductor
Council. Additionally, six abatement
technologies were considered to
further reduce emissions from this
sector: thermal abatement systems,
catalytic abatement systems,
plasma abatement systems, NF3
remote chamber clean process,
gas replacement, and process
optimization.


Abatement Potential
U.S. F-GHG abatement potential in
the semiconductor manufacturing
industry is estimated to be 1.0
MtCO2e and 0.9 MtCO2e in
2020 and 2030, respectively, which
correspond to 23% and 20% of
BAU emissions from this sector. In
2030, the abatement potential of
0.1 MtCO2e, or 2%, is achievable
at abatement costs below $30 per
tCO2e.

-------


Electric  Power   Systems  (EPS)
SF6 from  Electric  Power Systems

Sector Description
Electric power systems (EPSs)
use transmission and distribution
equipment that contains SFg, a potent
GHG with a GWP 23,900 times that
of CC>2. Emissions occur through
unintentional leaking of equipment
and improper handling practices
during servicing and disposal. U.S.
baseline emissions from this sector
were estimated at 12.1 MtCC^e  in
2010. Emissions are projected to drop
to 10.3 MtCO2e in 2030, a 15%
decrease.
                                                Emissions Reduction Potential
                                       Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the
                                       United States' electric power systems sector could be reduced by up to
                                       5.9 MtC02e in 2030. This accounts for 1% of the United States' total
                                               reduction potential (569 MtC02e) in 2030.
                                    Electric Power
                                       Systems
                                         6
                                                      Oil & Natural
                                                      Gas Systems
                                                                     Refrigeration &
                                                                     Air Conditioning
                                           Energy
                                                    Waste
                                 Industrial
                                 Processes
                                                        Agriculture
      Global Non-C02 Emissions
Electric Power Systems sector baseline emissions
are estimated to be 12 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030,
emissions are projected to be 10 MtC02e, or 1% of
  total non-CO. emissions in the United States.
                                  Projected Emissions in 2030
                                         Emissions from the United States and other Major Emitting Countries (MtC02e)
                                                        Rest of World: 18 MtC02e





                        Electric
                      Power Systems
                        0.8%
  Energy
        Waste
             | Industrial
             Processes
Agriculture
Other Non-C02
Sources Not Modeled
                                                      China United States India  Brazil South Korea  ROW

-------
                             Key Points

                                The U.S. abatement potential ranges from 3.7 MtC02e to 5.9 MtC02e in 2030.
                                Abatement measures include technologies and handling practices to manage SFe
                                emissions and prevent leakage during servicing and disposal.
                                The abatement potential at cost-effective break-even prices (SO/tCOae) is projected
                                to reduce baseline sector emissions by 36% in 2030.
                   Abatement Measures
Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices.


       Improved SF6 handling
               SF6 recycling
     Equipment refurbishment
 Leak detection and leak repair
                          0.0
                                  1.0
                                          2.0
                                                   3.0
                                                           4.0
                              Reductions achievable at costs less than $0/tC02e
                              Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tCO e
Abatement Measures
Abatement measures that reduce
emissions in the EPS sector include
SFg recycling, leak detection and
repair, equipment refurbishment,
and improved SFg handling. These
new technologies and handling
practices have largely been adopted
in Europe and Japan. SFg recycling
is commonly practiced in the
United States, but there remains
significant potential for further
reductions through improved
SFg handling and upgraded or
refurbished equipment.
            Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030
   It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 36%, compared with the
      baseline, in 2030. An additional 22% reduction is available using
              technologies with increasingly higher costs.
                                          Reduction Potential
  Baseline: 10 MtC02e
Residual       ] Technically Feasible
Emissions       at Increasing Costs
                                           Reductions at
                                           No Cost
Abatement Potential
U.S. abatement potential in
this sector is projected to be 6.4
MtCO2e in 2020 and 5.9 MtCO2e
in 2030, which corresponds to
58% of the BAU baseline sector
emissions, respectively. Significant
reductions are available at relatively
low cost. For example, emissions
reduction technologies that cost
up to $5 per tCO2e, can reduce
emissions by 3.7 MtCC^e,
accounting for 63% of the
technologically feasible emissions
reductions in 2030.

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 "^^^^^^W~~^^M
Magnesium   Production
SF6 Emissions from Magnesium  Production
Sector Description
Magnesium manufacturing uses SFg
as a cover gas during production
and casting to prevent spontaneous
combustion of molten magnesium
in the presence of air. The use of SFg
can result in fugitive emissions during
manufacturing processes. Advanced
initiatives in the magnesium industry
to phase out the use of SFg have
resulted in a 60% reduction in SFg
emissions from 3 MtCC^e to 1.2
MtCO2e between 2000 and 2010.
                                      Emissions Reduction Potential
                            Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the
                           United States' magnesium manufacturing sector could be reduced by up
                           to 0.1 MtC02e in 2030. This accounts for 0.01% of the United States'
                                   total reduction potential (569 MtC02e) in 2030.
                         Magnesium
                         Production
                           0.07

                                          Oil & Natural
                                          Gas Systems
                                                         Refrigeration &
                                                         Air Conditioning
                                            Energy
                                        Waste
                                          Industrial
                                          Processes
                                               Agriculture
        Global Non-C02Emissions
  Magnesium Production sector baseline emissions
 are estimated to be 1.2 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030,
 emissions are projected to be 0.1 MtC02e, or 0.01%
       of total non-C02 emissions in
          the United States.
                                   Projected Emissions in 2030
                            Emissions from the United States and other Major Emitting Countries (MtCCLe)
                                          Rest of World: 0.10 MtC02e

                           Magnesium
                           Production
                            0.01%
  Energy
         Waste
| Industrial
 Processes
Agriculture
Other Non-C02
Sources Not Modeled
                                                       China Russia Kazakhstan  Israel  United States  ROW

-------
                             Key Points
                                The U.S. abatement potential of 98% is achieved through three abatement measures
                                that substitute SFe with alternative gases.
                                From 2010 to 2030, SFg emissions are projected to drop from 1.2 MtCC^e to 0.1
                                MtC02e.
                                Full abatement potential can be achieved at break-even prices of $5/tC02e or less.
                   Abatement Measures
Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices.

         Alternate cover gas -
              NovecTM612

         Alternate cover gas -
                 HFC-134a

     Alternate cover gas - S02
                         0.00
                                    0.01
                                                0.02
                                                           0.03
                              Reductions achievable at costs less than $0/tC02e
                              Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tCO e
             Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030
   It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 78%, compared with the
      baseline, in 2030. An additional 20% reduction is available using
              technologies with increasingly higher costs.
                                          Reduction Potential
  Baseline: 0.1 MtC02e
     Residual       ]  Technically Feasible
     Emissions        at Increasing Costs
Reductions at
No Cost
Abatement  Measures
Three abatement measures are
available for reducing SFg emissions
in production and processing,
all of which involve replacing
SFg with an alternative cover gas:
sulfur dioxide (SO2), HFC-134a,
or Novec 612. Although toxicity,
odor, and corrosive properties are
a concern of using SC>2 as a cover
gas, it can potentially eliminate SFg
emissions entirely through improved
containment and pollution control
systems. HFC-134a, along with
other fluorinated gases, contains
fewer associated health, odor, and
corrosive impacts than SO2, but it
does have global warming potential.
Novec 612 is currently being used
in a diecasting facility, and the
replacement of SFg with Novec 612
is under evaluation.


Abatement  Potential
The U.S. abatement potential of SFg
emissions in the magnesium sector
is 1.1 MtCO2e, approximately 98%
of projected sector emissions. The
maximum reduction potential for
the suite of reduction technologies is
98% of projected emissions in 2030.
These reductions can be achieved at
a cost of less than $5/tCO2e.

-------
Photovoltaic  Cell   Manufacturing
F-GHG Emissions from Photovoltaic Cell Manufacturing
Sector Description

The photovoltaic (PV) cell
manufacturing process often uses
multiple F-GHGs during production,
some of which are released into the
atmosphere. Baseline emissions in
2010 were 0.18 MtCO2e and are
expected to increase slightly to 0.19
MtCO2e in2030.
                                    Emissions Reduction Potential
                          Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the
                         United States' photovoltaic cell manufacturing sector could be reduced by
                         up to 0.2 MtC02e in 2030. This accounts for 0.03% of the United States'
                                 total reduction potential (569 MtC02e) in 2030.
                        Photovoltaic
                           Cell
                        Manufacturing
                          0.17
                                                       Oil & Natural
                                                       Gas Systems
                                                                      Refrigeration &
                                                                      Air Conditioning
                                          Energy
                                       Waste
                                          Industrial
                                          Processes
                                              Agriculture
       Global Non-C02 Emissions
  Photovoltaic Cell Manufacturing sector baseline
 emissions are estimated to be 0.2 MtC02e in 2010.
 In 2030, emissions are projected to be 0.2 MtC02e,
    or 0.01% of total non-C02 emissions in
          the United States.
                                  Projected Emissions in 2030
                           Emissions from the United States and other Major Emitting Countries (MtC02e)
                                         Rest of World: 0.13 MtC02e
                                   \

                                      -   Y
                                        •*r*T
                          Photovoltaic
                       Cell Manufacturing
                          0.01%
  Energy
        Waste
| Industrial
 Processes
Agriculture
Other Non-C02
Sources Not Modeled
                                                     China Jaoan United States Germanv Malaysia  ROW

-------
                             Key Points

                               The U.S. abatement potential in the PV manufacturing sector is 0.2 MtCOae in 2030.
                               Reduction technologies include technologies that reduce F-GHG emissions through
                               etch and/or chamber cleaning processes.
                               The high costs of emissions reduction technologies combined with low emissions
                               reductions lead to abatement costs greater than $300/tC02e.
                   Abatement Measures
Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices.


            NF3 remote clean

          Thermal abatement

          Catalytic abatement

           Plasma abatement
                         0.0    0.2    0.4   0.6    0.8    1.0   1.2

                           I  Reductions achievable at costs less than $0/tC02e
                           I  Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tCO,e
                         Abatement  Measures
                         Abatement measures considered
                         for reducing F-GHG emissions
                         from the PV manufacturing
                         sector include thermal abatement
                         systems, catalytic  abatement
                         systems, plasma abatements
                         systems, and the NF3 remote
                         chamber clean process. These
                         technologies have the potential to
                         reduce emissions from etch and/or
                         chamber clean processes by 90%.
            Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030
  There are no cost effective reductions available in the PV cell manufacturing
            sector in 2030. However, a 90% reductions are
         available using technologies with increasingly higher costs.
                                          Reduction Potential
  Baseline: 0.2 MtC02e
     Residual       ]  Technically Feasible
     Emissions        at Increasing Costs
Reductions at
No Cost
Abatement  Potential
The U.S. abatement potential in
the PV manufacturing sector is
estimated to be 0.17 MtCC^e
from 2020 through 2030, or
90% of baseline emissions in each
year. High capital costs and low
emissions reductions associated
with the available abatement
measures result in abatement costs
greater than $300/tCO2e.

-------
Flat  Panel   Display   Manufacturing
F-GHG Emissions from Flat Panel Display Manufacturing
Sector Description
Flat panel display (FPD)
manufacturing processes produce
F-GHG emissions, including SFg,
NF3, and carbon tetrafluoride (CF4).
FPD manufacturing industry is
located outside the United States.
Despite the lack of activity in the
United States, this sector remains an
important source of international
GHG emissions and abatement
potential.
                Emissions Reduction Potential
           While the United States has no abatement in this sector,
            globally emissions from this sector can be reduced by
                   approximately 10 MtCC^e.
      Flat Panel
       Display
     Manufacturing
         0
                                     V •
                                      ••
                     Oil & Natural
                     Gas Systems
                                  Refrigeration &
                                  Air Conditioning
                                      Energy
                   Waste
                                     Industrial
                                     Processes
                                                               Agriculture
      Global Non-C02 Emissions
  The United States has no emissions associated
  with Flat Panel Display manufacturing between
          2010 and 2030.
                               Projected Emissions in 2030
        Emissions from the United States and other Major Emitting Countries (MtC02e)
                     Rest of World: 0.0 MtC02e

                       Flat Panel
                        Display
                      Manufacturing

                         0%
 Energy
I Waste || Industrial
      Processes
Agriculture
Other Non-C02
Sources Not Modeled
                                                China South Korea Japan Singapore United States ROW

-------

                             Key Points
                             •  FDP manufacturing is located outside the United States and is projected to remain
                                outside the United States out to 2030.
                             •  The United States is projected to have zero emissions in this sector between 2010
                                and 2030.
                             •  Six abatement options were analyzed to reduce emissions from etch and/or clean
                                processes.
                   Abatement Measures
Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices.

          Thermal abatement   o

            NF3 remote clean   o

          Catalytic abatement   0

      Central abatement system   0

          Plasma abatement   0

            Gas replacement   0
                       012345

                       •  Reductions achievable at costs less than $0/tC02e
                        I  Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tCO,e
                                                Abatement Measures
                                                Six abatement options were
                                                considered for the FPD
                                                manufacturing sector:  central
                                                abatement, thermal abatement,
                                                catalytic abatement, plasma
                                                abatement, NF3 remote chamber
                                                clean, and gas replacement. These
                                                systems are applicable to reducing
                                                emissions from etch and/or clean
                                                processes. Thermal abatement
                                                systems represent the largest
                                                abatement potential, accounting
                                                for 40% of emissions reductions in
                                                the FPD manufacturing sector.
            Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030
      The United States has no baseline emissions and subsequently no
      abatement potential in the flat panel display manufacturing sector.
 0%
 Baseline: 0 MtC02e
    Residual
    Emissions
Technically Feasible
at Increasing Costs
Reductions at
No Cost
                                                Abatement Potential
                                                Although the United States has
                                                no abatement potential in this
                                                sector, there are international
                                                opportunities to reduce emissions.
                                                Global abatement of F-GHGs in
                                                the FPD manufacturing sector is
                                                estimated to be 10 MtCC^e in
                                                2030, which equates to an  80%
                                                reduction in emissions.

-------
     jyestoc
Emissions  from  Livestock Operations
Sector Description
Livestock operations generate CH4
and N2O emissions. The GHG
emissions mainly come from two
sources: enteric fermentation and
manure management. CH4 is
produced as a by-product of the
digestive process in animals through
a microbial fermentation process.
Manure N2O emissions result from
nitrification and denitrification of the
nitrogen that is excreted in manure
and urine. U.S. baseline emissions
from the livestock sector are estimated
to grow from 174.4 to 185.9 MtCO2e
from 2010 to 2030.
                                                    Emissions Reduction Potential
                                          Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the
                                       United States' livestock sector could be reduced by up to 43 MtC02e in 2030.
                                          This accounts for 8% of the United States' total reduction potential
                                                          (569 MtC02e) in 2030.
                                                           Oil & Natural
                                                           Gas Systems
                                                                           Refrigeration &
                                                                           Air Conditioning
                                         Livestock
                                           43
                                            Energy
                                                            Waste
                                                               Industrial
                                                               Processes
Agriculture
        Global Non-C02 Emissions
Livestock sector baseline emissions are estimated to
 be 174 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030, emissions are
  projected to be 186 MtC02e, or 14% of total
    non-CO. emissions in the United States.
                                       Projected Emissions in 2030
                          Livestock
                           14%
                                               Emissions from the United States and other Major Emitting Countries (MtCO e)
                                                              Rest of World: 1,553 MtC02e
                                                186
                                                                                122
                                                         246

  Energy
Waste  | Industrial   | Agriculture
       Processes
                                 Other Non-C02
                                 Sources Not Modeled
                                                                India  China  Brazil  United States  Pakistan ROW

-------
                             Key Points

                             •  The livestock sector accounts for 14% of baseline non-COa emissions in the United States in
                                2030.
                             •  The largest low-cost reductions in emissions resulted from implementing strategies to
                                improve feed conversion efficiency, incorporating feed supplements, and increasing the use
                                of large-scale complete mix anaerobic digesters.
                             •  The technologically feasible abatement potential of the livestock sector is 43.2 MtC02e in
                                2030, or 23% of baseline sector emissions.
                       Abatement Measures
  Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices.

              Propionate precursors
                  Antimethanogen
            Improved feed conversion
      Large-scale complete mix digester
                     with engine
  Large-scale covered lagoon with engine
      Large-scale complete mix digester
                   without engine
Large-scale covered lagoon without engine
                 Intensive grazing
Large-scale fixed-film digester with engine
        Large-scale fixed-film digester
                   without engine
                     Antibiotics
                  Other measures
                         0123456
                         I  Reductions achievable at costs less than $0/tC02e
                             Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tC02e

           Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030
  It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 2%, compared with the
    baseline, in 2030. An additional 21% reduction is available using
             technologies with increasingly higher costs.

                                           Reduction Potential
Baseline: 186 MtC02e
   Residual
   Emissions
                                                                       Abatement Measures
                                                                       The report considered six enteric fer-
                                                                       mentation (CH4) abatement measures:
                                                                       improved feed conversion efficiency,
                                                                       antibiotics, bovine somatrotropin,
                                                                       propionate precursors, antimethano-
                                                                       gen vaccines, and intensive pasture
                                                                       management. It also included two ma-
                                                                       nure management (N2O) abatement
                                                                       measures: small and large digesters
                                                                       (complete-mix, plug-flow, fixed film)
                                                                       and covered lagoons. The largest re-
                                                                       ductions resulted from implementing
                                                                       antimethanogen vaccines, propionate
                                                                       precursors, and large-scale complete-
                                                                       mix digesters.
                                                                          Abatement Potential
                                                                          Technologically feasible U.S.
                                                                          abatement potential for the livestock
                                                                          sector was estimated at 43.2 MtCC^e
                                                                          in 2030, a 23% reduction compared
                                                                          with the sector baseline.  In 2030, a
                                                                          reduction  of 4.1 MtCC^e is cost-
                                                                          effective under current projections and
                                                                          15.5 MtCO2e would be possible at an
                                                                          abatement cost of $30/tCC>2e.
                       Technically Feasible
                       at Increasing Costs
Reductions at
No Cost

-------
                                                 sum
    Methane (CH4)  and  Nitrous Oxide  (N20) Emissions from Rice Cultivation
    Sector Description
    Rice cultivation results in CH4 and
    N2O emissions, and changes in soil
    organic C stocks. When paddy fields
    are flooded, decomposition of organic
    material depletes the oxygen in the
    soil and floodwater, causing anaerobic
    conditions. Human activities influence
    soil N2O emissions (use of fertilizers
    and other crop management practices)
    and soil C stocks (residue and crop
    yield management). The United States
    ranks as the 11th largest emitter of
    GHG emissions from rice cultivation.
    Baseline emissions  from the rice
    cultivation sector in the United States
    are projected to grow from 5.7 to 8.8
    MtCO2e from 2010 to  2030.
                                                      Emissions Reduction Potential
                                           Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the
                                          United States' rice sector could be reduced by up to 3 MtC02e in 2030.
                                            This accounts for 1% of the United States' total reduction potential
                                                            (569 MtC02e) in 2030.
                                                                              Refrigeration &
                                                                              Air Conditioning
                                              Energy
                                    Waste
                                      Industrial
                                      Processes
Agriculture
       Global Non-C02 Emissions
Rice sector baseline emissions are estimated to be
  6 MtC02e in 2010. In 2030, emissions are
   projected to be 9 MtC02e, or 1% of total
   non-C02 emissions in the United States.
                                             Projected Emissions in 2030
                                                     Emissions from the United States and other Major Emitting Countries (MtCO e)
                                                                     Rest of World: 244 MtC02e
      Energy
              Waste
            | Industrial
             Processes
Agriculture
Other Non-C02
Sources Not Modeled
                                                                   India Bangladesh Indonesia China United States ROW
LI'l

-------
                                Key Points
                                   The rice cultivation sector accounts for 1% of baseline non-COa emissions in the
                                   United States in 2030.
                                   Among the abatement measures evaluated, switching from continuous flooding
                                   to mid-season drainage with residue utilization and implementation of no tillage
                                   practices provides the largest emission reductions in the United States.
                                   The technologically feasible reduction potential of the rice cultivation sector is 3.0
                                   MtCt^e in 2030,35% of baseline sector emissions.
                      Abatement Measures
  Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices.
       Switch from CFto mid-season drainage
                   with 50% residue
 Continuous flooding with 50% residue incorporation
           and 20% reduced fertilizer usage
Switch from CFto alternate wet/dry with 50% residue
      incorporation and use of nitrogen inhibitors
 Continuous flooding with 50% residue incorporation;
    20% reduced fertilizer usage; and dry seeding
       Switch from CFtoalternate wet/dry with
               50% residue incorporation
    Other measures
                0.05
                0.13
                             0.0
                                        0.2
                                             0.3
                                                   0.4
                                                        0.5
                                                             0.6
                                 Reductions achievable at costs less than $0/tC02e
                                 Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tC02e
                                                   Abatement Measures
                                                   Five types of abatement measures
                                                   were considered: paddy flooding
                                                   (continuous, midseason,
                                                   alternating, dry), crop residue
                                                   incorporation (50% and 100%),
                                                   tillage (conventional and no
                                                   till), fertilization application
                                                   (conventional, ammonium sulfate,
                                                   nitrification inhibitor, slow release,
                                                   reduced use, auto fertilization),
                                                   and direct seeding. Switching
                                                   continuous flooding to mid-season
                                                   drainage in combination with
                                                   50% residue incorporation and
                                                   adopting no-tillage practices in
                                                   rice cultivation provide the largest
                                                   emissions reductions but may also
                                                   lower rice yields to some degree.
               Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030
     It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 8%, compared with the
        baseline, in 2030. An additional 26% reduction is available using
                 technologies with increasingly higher costs.

                                              Reduction Potential
                                               26%     8%
   Baseline: 9 MtC02e
      Residual
      Emissions
Technically Feasible
at Increasing Costs
Reductions at
No Cost
Abatement  Potential
Technologically feasible U.S.
abatement potential for the rice
cultivation sector was estimated
at 3.3 MtCO2e in 2020 and 3.0
MtCO2e in 2030, 39% and 35%
reductions compared with the sector
baseline. In 2030, a reduction of 0.7
MtCO2e at an abatement cost of
$0/tCO2e and 1.7 MtCO2e would
be possible at a cost of $30/tCO2e.

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Non-rice Croplands

Sector Description
Land management in croplands influences
soil N2O emissions (influenced by
fertilization practices, soil drainage, and
nitrogen mineralization), H4 fluxes,
and soil organic carbon (C) stocks (and
associated CO2 fluxes to the atmosphere).
The report considers  only major crops
(barley, maize, sorghum, soybeans, and
wheat)  and minor crops closely related
to these (rye, lentils, other beans,  and
oats). U.S. baseline emissions from the
croplands sector in 2010 were estimated
at 82.1  MtCO2e. Projected emissions
are relatively constant,  decreasing to
approximately 71.3 MtCO2e in 2020 and
rebounding to 86.1 MtCO2e by 2030.
                                                              Emissions Reduction Potential
                                                  Assuming full implementation of current technology, emissions in the
                                                 United States' soil sector could be reduced by up to 11 MtC02e in 2030.
                                                   This accounts for 2% of the United States' total reduction potential
                                                                    (569 MtC02e) in 2030.
                                               Croplands
                                                  11
                                                                                     Refrigeration &
                                                                                     Air Conditioning
                                                     Energy
                                                                 Waste
                                        Industrial
                                        Processes
                                                                                       Agriculture
        Global Non-CO, Emissions
Croplands sector baseline emissions are estimated
to be 82 MtC02e in 2010.  In 2030, emissions are
   projected to be 86 MtC02e, or 6% of total
   non-C00 emissions in the  United States.
                                           Projected Emissions in 2030
Croplands
  6%
                                                    Emissions from the United States and other Major Emitting Countries (MtCO e)
                                                                      Rest of World: 168 MtC02e
                                                       4.
                                                           W
   Energy
Waste • Industrial
        Processes
                           Agriculture
Other Non-C02
Sources Not Modeled
                                                                    China  United States  India  Brazil  Argentina  ROW

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                             Key Points
                                The U.S. emission reduction potential of the croplands sector is 10.9 MtCOae in 2030,
                                13% of baseline sector emissions.
                                Seven abatement options were analyzed to reduce soil management emissions.
                                86% of potential reductions in the United States are achievable by implementing
                                no-till cultivation and reducing fertilizer applications.
                    Abatement Measures
Emissions reductions by technology in 2030 at $0/tCC>2e and at higher prices.


                  No tillage


    20% reduced fertilizer use


       Use nitrogen inhibitors


               Split fertilizer I


   100% residue incorporation


  20% increase in fertilizer use
                          012345
                          •  Reductions achievable at costs less than $0/tC02e
                             Reductions achievable at costs greater than $0/tC02e

             Emissions Reduction Potential, 2030
   It would be cost-effective to reduce emissions by 6%, compared with the
      baseline, in 2030. An additional 6.6% reduction is available using
              technologies with increasingly higher costs.

                                           Reduction Potential
  Baseline: 86 MtC02e
     Residual
     Emissions
Technically Feasible
at Increasing Costs
Reductions at
No Cost
                                                 Abatement Measures
                                                 Six abatement measures were
                                                 considered for the cropland sector:
                                                 adoption of no-till cultivation,
                                                 reduced fertilizer application,
                                                 increased fertilizer application, split
                                                 nitrogen fertilization, application
                                                 of nitrification inhibitors, and crop
                                                 residue incorporation. In 2030, the
                                                 majority of reductions result from
                                                 implementing no-till cultivation
                                                 (50% of total abatement). Additional
                                                 reductions can be achieved by
                                                 reducing fertilizer usage and adopting
                                                 nitrification inhibitors.
Abatement Potential
Technologically feasible U.S.
abatement potential in the croplands
sector is estimated to be 14.5
MtCO2e in 2020 and 10.9 MtCO2e
in 2030, representing 20% and
13% reductions compared with the
sector baseline. In 2030, abatement
measures that break even (i.e., <$0/
tCC>2e) can reduce 5.5 MtCC^e
in cropland emissions. Additional
reductions are achievable when
including more costly abatement
measures. For example, the level of
reduced emissions increases to 8.7
MtCO2e when including abatement
measures at break-even prices less
than or equal to $30/tCC>2e.

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