•EPA/600/D-89/069
 ASSESSMENT OF  ECOLOGIC RISKS RELATED TO CHEMICAL .EXPOSURE"

 METHODS AND STRATEGIES USED IN THE UNITED STATES.


               J. W. Falco

               Office of Environmental Processes and Effects Research
               United States Environmental Protection Agency
               Washington, B.C.

               R. V. Moraski

               Office of Health and Environmental Assessment
               United States Environmental Protection Agency
               Washington, D.C.


 1    CURRENT STATUS

     At  present,  the  United  States  has yet  to  develop  government-  or
 agency-wide  guidelines  for conducting ecologic  risk assessments;  however,
 various  standard test methods  have  been developed  to  provide  toxicologic
 benchmarks.   The earliest of these methods  measured acute toxicologic  ef-
 fects, but as  this  field of science progressed,  methods to measure chronic
 effects  were  also  developed.   Most  recently,  research  efforts have  been
 directed  toward  developing  test  methods that  predict chronic  and  acute
 toxicologic  effects based on  results  of short-term  exposure of  organisms
 during sensitive life stages.

     The  American Society for  Testing and  Materials  (ASTM)  has  published
 many  of  the earlier methods  used in  the United States  for  testing  acute
 and  chronic  effects.   Depending  on  their scope and  level of detail,  test
 procedures  are  published  as  ASTM guides, practices,  or  test  methods.   A
 partial  compilation of  methods developed by the United States  Environmen-
 tal  Protection  Agency (EPA)  or published by  ASTM  is  presented in  Tables
 5.1,  5.2,  and  5.3.  These  toxicologic  methods  are grouped  according  to
 their  use  for measuring  effects  on terrestrial,  freshwater,  or  saltwater
 organisms,

" .   Ecologic  risk  assessments  performed by the EPA  are done primarily  by
 the  quotient or  ratio method;  less frequently used methods include ranking
 techniques and application factors.   The ratio method compares a- toxico-
 logic  benchmark  such as an acute LC5Q value or a  chronic no-effects  con-
 centration  to a given  exposure  concentration  to  provide an  estimate  of
 risk,.s  "As the ratio for  a  given species  approaches  a  critical  value,  a
 high  risk  is inferred.   Exposures of  varying  intensities and data  on  eco-
 logic  effects  are evaluated depending  on the purpose of the assessment and
 the  legal requirements that specify  the  scope  of the assessment.

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Table 5.1.  Methods for Estimating Toxicologic Effects on Terrestrial
            Species and Birds of Exposure to Potentially Toxic Chemicals
Method                                                     Reference


Standard Method for Effective Bird Control                 ASTM,  1986a

Standard Method for Percutaneous Toxicity                  ASTM,  1986b

Standard Method for Subchronic Dermal Toxicity             ASTM,  19860

Standard Practice for Determining Acute Oral LD5Q
for Testing Vertebrate Control Agents                      ASTM,  1986d
Table 5.2.  Methods for Estimating Toxicologic Effects on Freshwater
            Organisms of Exposure to Potentially Toxic Chemicals
Method                                                     Reference
Methods for ftcute Tests with Fish, Macroinvertebrates,     U.S.  EPA,  1975
and Amphibians      -                                       ASTM,  1986e

Method for Aquatic Multiple Species Toxicant Testing,       Phipps and
                                                           Hoicombe,  1985

Methods for Conducting Effect Studies on Snail             Holconbe et  al.
(Aplexa hypnorum) Embryo through Adult Exposures           198^

Standard Practice for Conducting Static Acute Toxicity     ASTM,  1986f
Tests on Wastewaters with Daphnia

Standard Guide for Assessing the Hazards of a Material     ASTM,  1986g
to Aquatic Organisms and their Uses
2    FUTURE DIRECTIONS

     State-of-the-art assessment  of  risk to the  ecosystem  is still evolv-
ing.  Although the single-species  tests  listed  in Tables 5.1, 5.2, and 5.3
have provided valuable information for  the  assessment of ecologic risk, it
is  necessary  to focus  on ecosystems-level  tests and  analyses.    The in-
creasing availability of predictive  models  makes  assessment of risk to the
environment, rather than simply to a single species,  more possible.

     Predicting an  ecosystem's response  to pollutant  stress  is  difficult
because of the large  number  of dependent and  independent variables consti-
tuting  and  inherent  to  a natural  ecosystem.    These  include population-
level  factors  such  as  density,  immigration,   growth,  and   mortality,  and
community-level  factors   such  as  diversity,   relative  dominance,  trophic
structure, and distribution.

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Table 5.3.  Methods for Estimating Toxicologic Effects on Saltwater
            Organisms of Exposure to Potentially Toxic Chemicals
Method
Reference
Sea Urchin DMA-Based Embryo Growth Toxicity Test


Sea Urchin Sperm Cell Toxicity Test


Bacterial Toxicity Test (Microtox®)


Phorocephalid Amphipod Bioassay

Rhodophyta Life Stages Toxicity Test


Atherinid Fish Early Life Stage Toxicity Test

Sheepshead Minnows Life Cycle Toxicity Test


Cytogenetic Model for Marine Genetic Toxicology

Method to Measure Scope for Growth Index
for Blue Mussels  •

Method for Measuring AEC as a Test for Stress
in Mussels

Method for Measuring Bioaccumulation of
Chemicals in Mussels and Polychaetes

Method for Measuring Sister Chromatid Exchange
in Marine Polychaetes

System for Preliminary Evaluation of Infectivity
and Pathogenesis of Insect Virus in Shrimp

Tidewater Silversides (Menldia peninsulae)
Early Life Stage Toxicity Test

Early Life Stage Toxicity Test Using
California Grunion
Jackim and Nacci,
1984, 1986.

Dinnel et al.,  1983
Beckman, 1982

Sectarian, 1982
Nacci,  1986

Swartz,  1985

Steele and Thursby,
1983

Goodman et al.,  1985a

Hansen and Parrish,
1977

Pesch et al., 1981
Nelson et al.,  1985

Zaroogi'an et al.,
1982
Lake et al., 1985
Pesch et al., 1984

Couch and Martin,
1984
Goodman et al,,  1983
Goodman et al,,  1985b
     There are  ways  to  simplify  the  complex  structure of  an  ecosystem.
For example,   determination and  analysis   of a key species  may facilitate
prediction of  the effects of  pollutant stress  on dependent species.   In
addition, knowledge of  physico-chemical parameters of  pollutants  may make
possible  the  analysis of pollutant  fate  and  transport  (see,  for  example,
Chapter  7 of  this  book).   Nevertheless,  ecosystem-level  analysis  is  an
inherently complex undertaking.  Ecosystems  may  modify  the fate  and trans-
port of environmental pollutants.   In  aquatic systems,  for example, micro-
                                                            accumulation  of

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neurotoxic methylmercury  in  fish.   A number of the  factors  to be included
in any discussion of ecological risk assessment are  discussed  below.*

2.1  End Points

     A variety  of ecotoxicologic end  points  have been  proposed  to  assess
the effects of  pollutants on  ecologic  systems.   Potential end points occur
at the  level  of  the individual  organism,  the population, and the ecosys-
tem.   In  general,  end  points at lower levels  of  organization (organism or
suborganisra levels)  have -been used more  widely  because  they  are simpler,
are more  rapidly  and inexpensively assessed,  and  are most useful in deter-
mining the mechanisms  of toxicologic  effects.   End points  at the popula-
tion or ecosystem levels of  organization are  more  complex and difficult to
interpret but  are probably  ecologically more realistic,  because they in-
corporate  the  complexity  of  interactions   among   organisms  and  between
organisms and  their  abiotic  environment.   A  major,  unresolved question is
the extent to which end points  at  lower  levels of organization can be used
to predict pollutant impacts at higher levels  of organization.

     2. 1 .  1  Ecosystem  Structure End  Points.    Measures  of ecosystem struc-
ture can  provide  important data  for  ecosystem risk assessments.   Structur-
al changes in stressed ecologic communities may  be  visualized as an infor-
mation network  reflecting environmental  conditions but  not demonstrating
the  external  mechanisms  or  internal  interactions  that  brought about  a
reorganization  in species composition  or dominance patterns.

     Structural end  points  such as  abundance (McNaughton and  Wolf,  1973)
and  biomass   (Clapham,  1973)  of  communities provide   relatively  simple,
gross measurements  of  ecosystem stress.    Species richness  has  been shown
to be sensitive to the level of  stress  and can  provide  a partial picture
of changes in community composition  which  accompany stress (McNaughton and
Wolf, 1973).

     Combined numerical  indices such  as  similarity (Hellawell,  1977)  and
ordination (Odum, 1971) measures may be used  to  track  changes in community
structure which occur as  pollutant concentrations  change.  Although diver-
sity indices (Odum,  1971; Herricks and Cairns,  1982) have been used widely
in hazard assessment studies (see,  for example,  Chapter  10  of this book),
these integrated measures are often  insensitive  to stress and provide data
that are  difficult  to  interpret  (Hellauell,  1977).   The  use of numerical
indices  exclusive of  the biologic  data  from which  they  are   calculated
should be discouraged.

     2,1,2  Ecosystem FunctionEnd Points.  The  analysis of functional re-
sponse end  points can  provide  data on  energy  flow and  nutrient  cycles.
The functional  capability of the  ecosystem is, in  fact,  the ultimate cri-
terion of ecologic success.  The  effective use of  end  points in  describing
impacts  is dependent on a theoretical and practical knowledge  of ecosys-
tems for  proper interpretation, and on  collection  of  sufficient baseline
data to  establish normal process  rates.  A  history of measuring  functional
response  variables  will  be  necessary  to  establish threshold  values  for
unacceptable  reductions in functional  capability.

     Primary  productivity (McNaughton  and  Wolf,  1973)  provides  the  energy
for the  base  of the food web.   This  process has  been shown to be sensitive
to a variety of pollutants  and  other  forms of stress.   Reductions in pri-
mary productivity,  which are of  substantial  magnitude   and  long duration,
*Some of the discussion  that follows  is  talcen  from  material  submitted by
 Technical Resources,  Inc.,  Rockville,  MD,  for  work performed  under  EPA

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are unquestionably detrimental  to  energy  processing in exposed ecosystems.

     Disruptions  in  material cycles  such  as the  nitrogen  cycle (Westman,
1985;  Cook,   198*1)  can be  critical  if  the  effects  on  cycling  processes
indirectly inhibit ecosystem production.   Material cycles  can  be upset by
pollutant  inhibition  of the  decomposition process,  interference  with the
functional links  in  specific  nutrient cycles,  or disruption  of nutrient
conservation  mechanisms.  Effects  on  decomposition can be measured in ter-
restrial  and aquatic  ecosystems,   and  changes  in decomposition  rate and
completeness  of mineralization can be related  to the level  of .pollution
stress.   At   present,  few  data are available  on  the  long-term impacts of
reduced decomposition  on ecosystem  production.

     Specific nutrient cycling processes  are  key to  the  production  effi-
ciency of  ecosystems.   Identification of  the critical cycles  in specific
ecosystems will be necessary  for  the selection  of appropriate monitoring
points.

     Nutrient conservation  is  exceedingly  important in terrestrial ecosys-
tems.  Evidence of excessive leaching of  essential nutrients  is  a sign of
stress.   Leaching loss of  nutrients  has   been correlated  with  reduced nu-
trient availability  in  the plant-root zone and  reduced  plant  growth in
nutrient-deficient soil (Jackson et al., 1979).

     A problem  in  the  use  of ecosystem function  end  points is their  rela-
tive insensitivity to  ecosystem structure.   Shifts  in species composition
to more  pollutant-resistant species  may  or may  not  result in changes in
such functional  processes  as productivity or  nutrient cycling.   Thus, an
assessment of pollutant effects at  the ecosystem level should   include both
structure and function end  points.

     Because  the  factors  controlling ecosystem  structure  and  function are
numerous and  poorly  understood,  it is difficult to distinguish ecosystem-
level  effects of pollutants from  naturally occurring processes.   Many of
the ecosystem-level end  points depend on  the  questionable assumption that
unpolluted ecosystems  are at a stable, undisturbed state.

     2.1.3   Population-Level  End  Points.    At  the population level,  stress
response may  be monitored  in  terms  of changes   in the  abundance,  distri-
bution, age  structure, or  gene makeup of exposed  populations.   The  first
three  end  points  can  be  related  quite clearly  to the overall success of
the exposed population.  Changes  in the gene pool may be related to future
adaptability  of the population to similar  types  of stress.

     Also  in  question  is  the  selection   of  an   appropriate population or
populations to  be monitored  in an  impact  assessment.   Quite clearly,  moni-
toring effects  on  commercially  or  aesthetically  valuable  species is impor-
tant for predicting  impacts on those species.   More  valuable  for predict-
ing higher  level  impacts  are population  response data  on representative
and ecologically  important species within exposed communities.   Included
within  this   category  are  keystone  species that  strongly influence the
structure  of the  communities  or  the functioning of the  ecosystem.    If
there  is  interest  in extrapolating  population   response  to  predict  eco-
system-level  impacts,  emphasis should  be  placed  on gathering data on  popu-
lations  from  major functional  groups, including primary  producers,  pri-
mary, secondary, and tertiary consumers, and decomposers.

     A problem  in  using population-Level  end  points  as  indicators  of the
effects of  pollution  is  that the  numerous factors  regulating population
structure  are,  as yet,  poorly  understood.   This makes  it  difficult  to
discriminate  pollutant effects  from  naturally   occurring  processes.    As

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population  structure  is '  influenced  by   interactions   among  population
members,  with other  populations,  and  with  the  abiotic environment,  it
becomes necessary to examine effects of  pollutants at  the  ecosystem  level.

     2_. 1_. 14 _ Physiologic End Points.  The physiologic  end points most close-
ly related to individual fitness are  acute mortality,  growth and develop-
ment,  and  reproductive success.   Acute  lethality testing such  as LD5Q or
LC5Q determination  is  widely used  to  provide minimal  estimates  of toxic-
ity.    However,  such testing  is not sufficiently sensitive  to assess sub-
lethal  or  chronic  effects that occur  at  lower  toxicant concentrations and
that may be of considerable ecologic importance.

     Biochemical response end points may provide information on mechanisms
of toxic action.   Since biochemical processes are  in  general particularly
sensitive to  pollutants,  biochemical response end points may provide early
warning of potential impacts on the individual.   However, most biochemical
processes also respond  to conditions other than  pollutant stress, and the
response of  these  end  points may  be adjusted as  an  individual acclimates
to a stress.   Correlations  between  biochemical  response end  points and
individual success  need to  be  established to  enhance the  value  of these
sensitive end points as  predictors  of  higher  level impacts.

     Osmoregulatory activity is  an  appropriate  end  point for assessing im-
pacts  on certain  freshwater and estuarine  fish  and  invertebrates.  Again,
the  ability  of  individual organisms to  acclimate  to  osmoregulatory stress
must be considered  in  interpreting osmoregulatory response data.  Musculo-
skeletal end  points have  also  been used  to  monitor  stress  responses in
fish.   Correlations need to  be established  between abnormalities and the
ecologic success of deformed fish.

     Respiratory activity has been  used  as  a  response  end point for a num-
ber of  species.  However,  it  is difficult to  generalize about the patterns
of respiratory  response to stress.  Respiration, rates may  be elevated or
inhibited by  pollutants,  and ventilation rates  in  exposed individuals may
adjust as acclimation occurs.

     Behavioral alterations  are appropriate end points  for  impact assess-
ments  if  the  alterations act either to protect  the  individual from harm,
as in avoidance behavior, or  to make the individual  more vulnerable to the
stress, as in  the  loss of antipredator  behavior.   Although behavioral re-
sponses are  not easy  to demonstrate  in the  laboratory  or  in  the field,
these  end  points,  if demonstrated, may  be easily extrapolated to .predict
potential population-level effects.

     Genotoxicity and  carcinogenicity   are  end  points that  provide early
warning of  stress.    Data  must be gathered  on  the  natural  incidence of
mutations and  tumors  to aid  in interpreting  the  importance of chemically
induced mutation and tumor  incidence rates.

     End points measuring growth,  development,  and  reproductive success of
individuals  are  of  most obvious   utility  in predicting population-level
impacts.  Because these  end points  are directly  related to population suc-
cess,  their use is  recommended  in  impact studies where single-species test
data  are  extrapolated  to  predict population-level  impacts.    These  end
points  have  been used   less  frequently  because  of the   time  and expense
required to  conduct  full-life-cycle chronic  toxicity  tests.   However, the
more   frequently  used  short-term  physiologic and  biochemical  end  points
cannot  be  recommended  until their  relationships to organismal  growth and
reproductive  success are determined.

     A  number of  studies  (Babich  and  Stotzky,   1980;   Lighthart,   1980;

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 Reinert and.Spurr,  1972;  Miles  and Parker,  1980) have  documented  interac-
 tions between effects of  pollutants  and  abiotic and biotic factors  in  the
 environment.   These  studies  illustrate  the  inadequacy of  using  laboratory
 single-species,  single-factor testing to  estimate  all ecologic  effects  of
 contaminants, and  they  point to  the  necessity of  relating ecotoxicologic
 effects on individual organisms to population-  and  ecosystem-level  effects
 of pollutants.

      2.1.5  End Points  and  Ecological Risk  Assessment.   A multilevel  eco-
 logic risk assessment, which makes use of a combination  of organism,  popu-
.lation,  and  ecosystem-level  end  points,  provides  the  most  effective  ap-
 proach  to examining  ecosystem  stress,    Multilevel  testing  would  both
 enhance the sensitivity of a  risk assessment  and broaden its scope  to  in-
 clude more  complex  levels  of  ecologic  organization.   In  contrast,  the
 traditional  approach  of  using  only  single-species  testing  is  generally
 inadequate to account for pollutant-induced effects on  the complex  organi-
 zation of an ecosystem.   Single-species measures  can be  greatly  enhanced
 by the use of population and ecosystem-level end points.

      The precise choice of end  points for use in an ecologic risk  assess-
 ment should  be  made on a  case-by-case  basis,  depending on  both the  eco-
 system being tested and  the  nature  of  the  pollutant  stressor.   Various
 population- and ecosystem-level  end points are  potential choices.   Many  of
 these end  points  are readily measurable  and  are highly sensitive to  low
 levels of  pollutant stress.   Still  inadequate,  however,  are   field  data
 documenting the usefulness  of population-  and ecosystem-level   end  points
 in ecosystem toxicity studies.   Future  research in this area would  facil-
 itate the  development of the multilevel  risk assessment  approach.

 2.2  Choice of  Species

      The choice of species  to  study in  an  ecosystem  is  also  important;
 typically,  the  focus is endangered or sensitive species.   The selection  of
 ecosystem  media and  interaction of pollutants  within  these media  further
 complicate ecosystem  assessment.    Ecosystems  incorporate  processes  that
 operate  on diverse spatial,  structural,  or temporal scales.  The enmeshing
 of these  variables  presents  difficulties  in calculating  the   effects  of
 localized  versus general processes and  in  integrating key factors  such  as
 primary  production  with seasonal climatic changes and geochemical cycling.

      Intermediate  between  full  field tests and single-species  laboratory
 bioassays  are microcosm and mesocosm  studies.    Microcosms  and  intermediate
 mesocosms  are isolated  parts  of a naturally  occurring  system-that can  be
 modified  to  duplicate  many features  of  an  intact  ecosystem.    Microcosms
 have many  limitations  including  those of  spatial  scale,  number of  orga-
 nisms,  species  diversity,  and physical controlling variables.

 2.3  Use of Models

      Various  models can be used  to evaluate ecosystem risk.  These  include
 models  of  fate,  transport,  exposure, and  effects  as well as  integrative
 models  (see,  for example,  Chapter 7'of this book).  Other  ecosystem  models
 focus on   population  density,  food  chains,   bioenergetics,  and  toxico-
 kinetics.   The  diverse  models for both  individual  species and  population
 groups  have advantages and disadvantages  that must  be defined and  tailored
 to specific circumstances.  This  diversity  provides for a  wide  variety  of
 approaches that can be applied  to  the  problems encountered  in  ecologic
 risk  assessment.

      Succession  models take on a  wide range of mathematical forms.   Their
 riohn'0"  in  formulation originates to an  extent  in  the  specific  objectives

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and  training  of the  model  designer.   These differences  frequently  imply
different  theoretical  constructs  as  to what is  important  In  the function-
ing  of  a  given ecosystem.   In  this  sense, the  models  represent a complex
set  of  a  priori  hypotheses  about the  function  and  behavior  of ecosystems.

     Thus  it is essential to  use  an  orderly,  justifiable process in devel-
oping and  selecting  an appropriate ecosystem model.   Refining and improv-
ing  available models are  critical  aspects  of developing precise models for
each particular situation in  nature.

     One  of  the most  pressing  needs  in  environmental management  is  for
evaluation of  models used  routinely  in  assessment of  environmental  expo-
sure and  impact.  Many models are being  used for situations  where they are
of questionable validity,   In particular,  models should not  be applied to
environments outside  the range  for which they  have   been  calibrated  and
tested.   Although this  may  seem  obvious, oftentimes  models are  used to
predict  impacts  for  changing  conditions  that  are appreciably different
from those for which the models were originally  developed  and  calibrated.

     With  regard  to  population modeling,  although  current work on mathe-
matical models of  individuals and populations  shows great promise, insuf-
ficient scrutiny  to  date has precluded a general  consensus  on approach.
Most rudimentary  population models have been  developed from  a retrospec-
tive  viewpoint with  biologic  data, ,  but  few  biologic  principles,  as  a
focus.  Such models are  useful  for  risk  assessment  only from a qualitative
perspective.   However, discrete  age- or  stage-structured population models
offer a well-developed theory and a reasonable  computational  scheme.

     Another significant  problem in current  ecosystem  risk  assessment is
the  paucity of toxic effects  models  and  of predictive  methods.  Validation
of methods to  predict ecosystem  response  is difficult  because  of the ab-
sence of empirical data  in  many  areas.   Generation  of  data,  development of
models, and validation of methods  are  current  projects  of the EPA's Office
of Environmental Processes and Effects Research.

2.1  Resilience and Recovery

     Factors that  influence  recovery  of  an  ecosystem  from  environmental
stress,  include severity  of  the stress, reversibility of effects,  rate and
effectiveness of stress  removal,  frequency and  duration  of  ecosystem dis-
turbance,  resilience of  ecosystem  structure  and function,  extent of alter-
ation,  compensatory  interaction  of  multiple  species,  kinetic  balance of
the  system,  complexity  of  the system,  temporal and  spatial variability,
availability  of  regenerating  units,  and  rate  of  reestablishment of  the
biologic and physical habitat.

     The  resilience  of ecologic  systems  and  their resistance  to natural
and  anthropogenic  forms  of disturbance have  been measured   in  field  and
laboratory studies.   Of necessity,  these  studies have been  of long  dura-
tion.   In  most cases, natural  ecosystems  have  not been shown  to  be dis-
placed  to  the  extent  that  recovery is  not  possible when  the disturbance
abates  (Sheehan,  1984).   The availability of colonizers  to  the disturbed
ecosystem and  the existence of biogeochemical  feedback loops  are  cited as
factors important  to the rapid  recovery  of  disturbed ecosystems.   Func-
tional  redundancy of species  is  cited as  important  to the  resistance of
ecosystems to disturbance.   Loss of individual  populations may  not in it-
self be an adequate measure of  the  stability  of the structure and function
of a disturbed ecosystem.

     Resistance and  resilience  are appropriate  response  variables  for im-
                 These  stability  criteria  represent integrated measures of

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system breakdown and recovery.  In future studies,  measurement of amplitude
will be  essential  to establish measurable threshold  levels  of disturbance
which may be indicative of permanent changes  in stressed ecosystems.

2.5  Development of Surrogate Systems

     One potential tool for  quantification of health  and environmental ef-
fects  is  the classification of  well-described ecosystem types  for  use as
surrogates for candidate  ecosystems.   Establishment of such  surrogate sys-
tems would simplify evaluation without excessive loss of accuracy.

     Screening methodologies can  be used for  certain  classes of chemicals
to  predict  chemical  persistence  and  the  potential   for  bioaccumulaticn
based  on  physico-chemical  properties  and quantitative structure-activity
relationships.   On the basis of  screening  results,  biologic  testing may be
recommended.   Further  assessment with  integrated  exposure/effects models,
microcosm/mesocosm experiments, or  field studies are  logical extensions of
such screening efforts.

2,6  Uncertainty

     The  uncertainty  associated  with  ecosystem  risk  analysis  can  arise
from a variety of different  sources and  in a number of different ways that
affect the calculation of risk.   Perhaps foremost among these  is that the
response of  ecosystems,  or  their  components, to anthropogenic  stress in-
volves numerous  factors.   Each  of  these factors  incorporates  physical or
biologic mechanisms  that  in  turn vary in degree of  scientific characteri-
zation, availability of data sets,  and sources and levels  of uncertainty.
Thus,  natural  complexity  and  stochasticity  contribute  to  the uncertainty
associated  with  models.    Because  ecosystem  risk  analysis  typically  in-
cludes a mathematical or  statistical  model,  lack  of correspondence between
the model and  the  modeled ecosystem  leads to model error.   Errors in pa-
rameter  estimates  resulting from  experimental measurement  error,  approx-
imation and  extrapolation of experimental  results,  and solution techniques
also contribute  uncertainties  to ecologic risk assessment  (see also Chap-
ter 2 of this book).

2.7  Integrated Strategy

     An  integrated strategy  including single-species  bioassays, microcosm
and mesocosm experiments, and models  for  exposure  and toxic  effects allows
an estimate  of  the biologic  effects of a physical or  chemical  stress.   If
model parameters can  be  obtained from  actual test data,  then  model accu-
racy can be  improved by  stepwise  calibration of models to  microcosms and
mesocosms.    Thus,  variable  natural  conditions can be  represented more re-
alistically and ecologic risk estimated with  fewer uncertainties.


3    ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT GUIDELINES

     Ecosystem  risk  assessment  appears to be a feasible  undertaking when
its  limitations  are  clearly delineated.   The  EPA's  Office  of  Health and
Environmental  Assessment   is  currently  developing  guidelines   that  will
provide a general  approach  for conducting ecologic risk assessments.   The
guidelines will  help  the  assessor identify the pathways and mechanisms by
which chemicals  reach  nonhuman populations;  from  an  understanding  of the
chemical effects,  the assessor  will  then develop  an assessment  of risk.
The  guidelines  will  help the  assessor to determine  which aspects  of the
ecosystem to emphasize and whether  available  data  are adequate to estimate
exposure and effects of concern.   The risk manager will then  have a basis
for deciding what constitutes an unreasonable  ecologic  risk.

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     The guidelines  will  discuss the fundamental  principles  governing the
response of  the environment  to stress not  only  for  individual  organisms
but also  for populations of  organisms.   Discussion will  include current,
acceptable methods  for  testing  effects of pollutants  on  single  and multi-
ple species;  biologic,  molecular,  and physiologic  indicators  of tcxicity;
pharmacodynamic  and  environmental  mechanisms  of  toxic  effects;  and  eco-
system-level  functions  such  as  nutrient processing, productivity,  and di-
versity as indicators of  toxic  effects.

     The guidelines will  allow  the  risk assessor to consider  the following
questions when  developing an ecologic  exposure  assessment:  how  does the
ecosystem modify  the  fate and  transport of  the  toxicant;  how is  the  con-
taminant distributed  within  the ecosystem;  what are  the  residence times;
what are  the sites  of retention  or deposition;  what fate and  transport
models would  be  helpful  in determining  environmental concentrations; is it
possible  to   combine  bioassay  data  with  models,  microcosm  studies,  and
field-study methods  to  determine transport,  fate,  and potential exposure;
what is  known about  the  natural dynamics  of the  ecosystem;  what  is the
extent and duration  of  exposure for  the biota;  does the  ecosystem recover
from the  stress, and how is  recovery measured;  and are any  sensitive or
endangered species,  or  species  at  vulnerable  life  stages, present in the
ecosystem being studied?

     The  guidelines  will help   the  assessor  develop  an  ecologic hazard
assessment.   Elements  that may  contribute  to a  hazard  assessment include
factors that  affect  the  toxicity of the  chemical;  parent, metabolite,  or
degradation  products  responsible  for  the   toxic  effects;  selection  of
models based  on  an  intent to study  effects  on  individual species, certain
population groups, or the ecosystem  as a whole;  comparison  of changes that
occur in the  environment  in  the absence of  stress  with  changes  that occur
in the  presence of stress;  identification  of ecologically important  spe-
cies; possible  synergistic mechanisms;  intent   to  study  acute  or chronic
effects  or  both;  appropriateness  of •laboratory-to-field  extrapolations;
availability of appropriate  benchmark  compounds;  availability   of appli-
cable retrospective cases; appropriateness of an approach involving a sur-
rogate species  or ecosystem; and  presence  of  ecologic  indicators  in the
air,  water, soil, and ecosystems.

     The  guidelines  will help   the  assessor  choose  the  best  monitoring
system for the assessment, design the sampling plan, determine  the role of
models,  and decide whether a  tiered  testing approach  is  necessary to pre-
dict higher-order effects.

     Finally,  the  guidelines will   help  the assessor to  develop  a  risk
assessment that  integrates the  exposure and hazard  assessments.   Key ele-
ments that should  be considered  for inclusion  in  the  risk assessment in-
clude selection  of  end points,   description  of  the reference  environment,
identification of sources, assessment of exposure  and effects,  integrated
risic assessment, and evaluation  of uncertainty.
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                                   TECHNICAL REPORT DATA
                            (Pfease read Instructions on the reverse before completing}
  REPORT NO.
  EPA/60Q/D-89/069
                              2,
OHEA-E-283
  , TITLE ANDSUBTITLE
  Assessment of Ecclcgic Risks Related to Chemical
  Exposure:   Methods and Strategies Used in the  United
                         6. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION CODE
                       States
                                                           3. RECIPIENT'S ACCESSION NO.
                         S. REPORT DATE
                          May 1988
 7, AUTHOPHS)
  J.W.  Falco
  R.V.  Horaski
                                                           8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO.
 S. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS
                                                           10, PROGRAM ELEMENT NO.
                                                           It. CONTRACT/GRANT NO.
 12. SPONSORING AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS
                                                           13. TYPE OF F1EPORT AND PERIOD COVERED
  Office  of  Health and Environmental Assessment
  Exposure Assessment Group (RD-689)
  U.S.  Environmental  Protection Agency
  VJashington,  DC  20460	
                           book chapter
                         Id. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE
                           EPA/600/21
 15. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES
 Published in Risk  Management of Chemicals in the Environment,  Vol.  12 of NATO:
 Challenges of Modern  Society.   Hans M. Seip & Anders B.  Heiberg,  editors. January 1989
 16. ABSTRACT
      The state-of-the-art assessment of risk  to  the  ecosystem in still evolving.
 Although single-species tests have provided valuable information for the assessment
 of ecologic risk,  it  is necessary to focus on ecosystems-level tests and analyses.
 The increasing  availability of predictive models makes  assessment of risk to the
 environment, rather than simply to a single species,  more possible.  The United
 States has yet  to  develop government- or agency-wide guidelines for conducting
 ecologic risk assessments although the U.S. Environmental  Protection Agency currently
 has efforts underway  to develop such guidelines  in the  Office of Health and
 Environmental Assessment.   However,  various standard test methods have been developed
 to provide toxicologic  benchmarks primarily for  the  measurement of acute
 toxicological effects.   Recent research efforts  have  been directed toward developing
 test methods that  predict chronic and acute toxicologic  effects based on results of
 short-term exposure to  organisms during sensitive life  stages.   This paper presents a
 partial compilation of  methods used  in performing ecological  risk assessments
 developed by the U.S. Environmental  Protection Agency or published by the American
 Society for Testing and Materials and looks at the future  directions of the U.S. EPA
 in the development of new ecological  risk assessment methodologies and approaches. ..
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