Being Prepared for Climate Change
A Workbook for Developing
Risk-Based Adaptation Plans
Checklists of Potential Climate Change Risks, from Step 3
United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
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Cover photograph: Waquoit Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve. From: National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration/Department of Commerce, photographer Rick Crawford
This booklet is a reprinting of material from the EPA publication Being Prepared for Climate Change: A
Workbook for Developing Risk-Based Adaptation Plans (EPA 842-K-14-002, August 2014).
The full workbook is available through the Climate Ready Estuaries website, www.epa.gov/cre.
CLIMATE READY
ESTUARI ES
vvEPA
www.epa.gov/cre
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TABLE 3-1 A. POTENTIAL CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS FOR POLLUTION CONTROL
Clean Water Warmer
Act goals summers
Controlling
point sources
of pollution
and cleaning
up pollution
Controlling
nonpoint
f
sources ot
pollution
D Wildfires
may lead to
soil erosion
Warmer
winters
D Loss of melting
winter snows may
reduce spring
or summer flow
volume, and
raise pollutant
concentration in
receiving waters
D Longer growing
season can lead
to more lawn
maintenance with
fertilizers and
pesticides
D Temperature
criteria for
discharges may be
exceeded (thermal
pollution)
D Warmer
temperatures may
increase toxicity of
pollutants
D Higher solubility
may lead to higher
concentration of
pollutants
D Water may hold
less dissolved
oxygen
D Higher surface
temperatures may
lead to stratification
D Greater algae
growth may occur
D Parasites,
bacteria may have
greater survival or
transmission
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D Critical-low-
flow criteria for
discharging may
not be met
D Pollutant
concentrations
may increase if
sources stay the
same and flow
diminishes
D Pollution
sources may
build up on land,
followed by high-
intensity flushes
^^4^^X ^^^^^1
D Combined
sewer overflows
may increase
D Treatment
plants may go
offline during
intense floods
D Streams may
see greater
erosion and scour
D Urban areas
may be subject to
more floods
D Flood control
facilities (e.g.,
detention
basins, manure
management) may
be inadequate
D High rainfall
may cause septic
systems to fail
Sea level rise
D Treatment plants
may not be able to
discharge via gravity
at higher water levels
D Treatment
infrastructure may
be susceptible to
flooding
D Sewage may mix
with seawater in
combined sewer
systems
D Contaminated sites
may flood or have
shoreline erosion
D Sewer pipes may
have more inflow
(floods) or infiltration
(higher water table)
D Tidal flooding may
extend to new areas,
leading to additional
sources of pollution
D Decomposing
organic matter
releases carbon
dioxide, which
may exacerbate
the ocean
acidification
problem in
coastal waters
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TABLE 3-1 B. POTENTIAL CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS FOR HABITAT
Clean Water Warmer
Act goals summers
Restoring
and
protecting
physical and
hydrologic
features
Constructing
reefs to
promote fish
and shellfish
D Higher
temperatures
may lead
to greater
evaporation
and lower
groundwater
tables
D Switching
between
surface and
groundwater
sources for
public water
supplies may
affect the
integrity of
water bodies
D Greater
electricity
demand
may affect
operation
decisions at
hydropower
dams
D Less snow,
more rain may
change the
runoff/infiltration
balance; base flow
in streams may
change
D A spring
runoff pulse may
disappear along
i
with the snow
D Rivers may no
longer freeze; a
spring thaw would
be obsolete
D Marshes and
beaches may
erode from loss of
protecting ice
D Warmer water
may lead to greater
likelihood of
stratification
D Desired fish
may no longer be
present
D Warmer water
may promote
invasive species or
disease
^^^^^^3m7H
^^^•5 loiTT*! ni^B
D Groundwater
tables may drop
D Base flow in
streams may
decrease
D Stream water
may become
warmer
D Increased
human use of
groundwater
during drought
may reduce
stream baseflow
D New water
supply reservoirs
may affect
the integrity
of freshwater
streams
^^^^^^3m7H
^^J^^J ^^^^^1
D The number of
storms reaching
an intensity that
causes problems
may increase
D Stronger storms
may cause more
intense flooding
and runoff
D Coastal
overwash or island
breaching may
occur
D Turbidity of
surface waters
may increase
D Increased
intensity of
precipitation
may yield less
infiltration
D Stream erosion
may lead to
high turbidity
and greater
sedimentation
D Lower pH from
NFS pollution
may affect target
species
Sea level rise
D Shoreline erosion
may lead to loss of
beaches, wetlands
and salt marshes
D Saline water
may move farther
upstream and
freshwater habitat
may become
brackish
D Tidal influence
may move farther
upstream
D Bulkheads, sea
walls and revetments
may become more
widespread
D Light may not
penetrate through
deeper water
D Higher salinity may
kill targeted species
D Long-term
shellfish
sustainability
may be an open
question
D Fish may
be adversely
affected during
development
stages
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TABLE 3-1 c. POTENTIAL CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS FOR FISH, WILDLIFE AND PLANTS
Clean Water Warmer
Act goals summers
Protecting and
propagating
fish, shellfish
and wildlife
Controlling
nonnative
and invasive
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Maintaining
biological
integrity and
reintroducing
native species
D Species
that won't
tolerate
warmer
summers may
die/migrate;
biota at the
southern limit
of their range
may disappear
from
ecosystems
D Species
maybe
weakened
by heat and
become out-
competed
D Essential
food sources
may die off
or disappear,
affecting the
food web
D Species
may need
to consume
more water as
temperature
rises
D Species that
used to migrate
away may stay all
winter
D Species that
once migrated
through may stop
and stay
D Pests may
survive winters
that used to kill
them
D Invasive species
may move into
places that used
to be too cold
D Some plants
may need a
"setting" cold
temperature
D A longer
growing season
may lead to an
extra reproductive
cycle
D Food supplies
and bird
migrations may be
mis-timed
K Warmer
water
D Newly invasive
species may appear
D Habitat may
become unsuitably
warm, for a species
or its food
D Heat may stress
immobile biota
D Dissolved oxygen
capacity of water
may drop
D Some fish
reproduction
may require cold
temperatures; other
reproductive cycles
are tied to water
temperature
D Coral bleaching
episodes may
increase
D Parasites and
diseases are
enhanced by
warmer water
Increasing
drought storminess
D Species may
not tolerate a
new drought
regime
D Native habitat
may be affected
if freshwater
flow in streams
is diminished or
eliminated
D Changing
freshwater
inputs may
affect salinity
distribution
in estuaries
(especially of
interest with
regard to
shellfish habitat)
D Greater soil
erosion may
increase turbidity
and decrease
water clarity
D Greater soil
erosion may
increase sediment
deposition in
estuaries, with
consequences for
benthic species
Sea level rise
D Sea level may push
saltier water farther
upstream (especially
of interest with
regard to shellfish
habitat)
D Light may not
penetrate through
the full depth of
deeper water
D Greater coastal
wetland losses may
occur
Ocean
acidification
D Corrosive
waters may
impact shellfish
development
D Shellfish
predators may
not survive the
disappearance
of shellfish
D Fish may
be adversely
affected during
development
stages by
changes to
water chemistry
D The effect
of ocean
acidification
on calcifying
plankton
may lead to
cascading
effects in the
food chain
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TABLE 3-1 D. POTENTIAL CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS FOR RECREATION AND PUBLIC WATER SUPPLIES
Clean Water
Act resource
goals
Restoring
and
maintaining
recreational
activities, in
and on the
water
Protecting
public water
supplies
D More
people using
water for
recreation
may raise the
potential for
pathogen
exposure
D Warmer
temperatures
may drive
greater water
demand
D Evaporation
losses from
reservoirs and
groundwater
may increase
D Summer
water
supplies that
depend on
winter snow
pack may
disappear
D Cold places
may see more
freeze/thaw
cycles that
can affect
infrastructure
^^^ffi
^T^^fl
D Harmful algal
blooms may be
more likely
D Jellyfish may be
more common
D Fishing seasons
and fish may
become misaligned
D Desired
recreational fish
may no longer be
present
D Invasive plants
may clog creeks and
waterways
D Changes in
treatment processes
may be required
D Increased
growth of algae
and microbes may
affect drinking water
quality
^l^^^^^^oQ*V
^^^£^^^R*lu^l
D Freshwater flows in
streams may not support
recreational uses
D Increased estuary
salinity may drive away
targeted recreational fish
D Lower freshwater flows
may not keep saltwater
downstream of intakes
D Groundwater tables
may drop
D Coastal aquifers
may be salinized from
insufficient freshwater
input
D Coastal aquifers may
be salinized from higher
demand on groundwater
D Maintaining passing
flows at diversions may
be difficult
^^^^^^3m7H
^^J^^J ^^^^^i
HBBl
D More frequent
or more intense
storms may
decrease
recreational
opportunities
D Greater NFS
pollution may
impair recreation
D Water
infrastructure may
be vulnerable to
flooding
D Flood waters
may raise
downstream
turbidity and
affect water
quality
D Beaches or public
access sites may
be lost to coastal
erosion or inundation
D Clearance
under bridges may
decrease
D Sea level may push
salt fronts upstream
past water diversions
D Water
infrastructure may
be vulnerable to
inundation or erosion
D Saltwater intrusion
into groundwater
may be more likely
•cean
fication
D Eco-tourism
resources or
attractions
(e.g., birding,
diving, fishing)
may be
degraded
D Recreational
shellfish
harvesting
may be lost
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