United States        Air and Radiation       EPA420-S-00-003
          Environmental Protection                 December 2000
          Agency
vxEPA    Light-Duty Automotive
          Technology and
          Fuel Economy Trends
          1975 Through 2000

          Executive Summary
                                 > Printed on Recycled Paper

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                                           EPA420-S-00-003
                                             December 2000

        Robert M. Heavenrich
          Karl H. Heilman
    Advanced Technology Division
Office of Transportation and Air Quality
 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

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Introduction

       This report summarizes key fuel economy and technology usage trends related to model
year 1975 through 2000 light vehicles sold in the United States.  Light vehicles include those
vehicles that EPA and the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) classify as cars or light-duty
trucks (sport utility vehicles, vans, and pickup trucks with less than 8,500 pounds gross vehicle
weight ratings). The report finds that since 1988 average new light vehicle fuel economy has
declined  1.9 miles per gallon (mpg), i.e., more than seven percent, primarily because light truck
market share has increased and because fuel economy has been traded off for increased vehicle
weight and performance.

       The fuel economy values in this report are laboratory data  and are  significantly higher
than the real world estimates used on new vehicle labels and in the Fuel Economy Guide. The
fuel economy values in this report are similar to those used by the DOT for compliance with fuel
economy standards, but because the values in this report exclude correction factors for alternative
fuel capability and test procedure adjustments, they are always lower than those reported by
DOT.
Importance of Fuel Economy

       Since the early 1970s, EPA has issued reports that summarize new light vehicle fuel
economy data. Fuel economy continues to be a major area of public and policy interest for
several reasons, including:

       (1) Fuel economy is directly related to carbon dioxide emissions, the most prevalent
          pollutant associated with global warming. Light vehicles contribute about 20% of all
          U.S. carbon dioxide emissions.

       (2) Light vehicles account for approximately 40% of all U.S. oil consumption. Crude oil,
          from which nearly all light vehicle fuels are made, is considered to be a finite natural
          resource.

       (3) Fuel economy is directly related to the cost of fueling a vehicle and is of greater
          interest when oil and gasoline prices rise, as has happened recently.

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Highlight #1:   Fuel Economy Remains at a 20 Year Low
   There has been an overall declining trend in light vehicle fuel economy since
   1988. The average fuel economy for all model year 2000 light vehicles is now
   24.0 mpg, the same* as in 1999, and is as low as it has been at any time since
   1980.  This value is more than 1.9 mpg (about seven percent) lower than the
   peak value of 25.9 mpg achieved in 1987 and 1988. Within the light vehicle
   category for model year 2000, average fuel economy is 28.1 mpg for passenger
   cars and 20.5 mpg for light trucks.
      All of the fleet-wide improvement in new light vehicle fuel economy occurred from the
middle 1970s through the late 1980s, but it has been consistently falling since then. Viewed
separately, the average fuel economy for new cars has been essentially flat over the last 15 years,
varying only from 27.6 mpg to 28.6 mpg. Similarly, the average fuel economy for new light
trucks has been largely unchanged for the past 20 years, ranging from 20.1 mpg to 21.6 mpg.
The increasing market share of light trucks, which have lower average fuel economy than cars,
accounts for much of the decline in fuel economy of the overall new light vehicle fleet.
                           Fuel Economy by Model Year
             30
             25
             20
              15 -
                Average MPG
              10
                                                             Cars
               1970
1975
1980
1985    1990

 Model Year
1995
2000
* Note the data for model years 1998 and 1999 in this report have been revised since the previous
paper in this series was issued.
                                       11

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Highlight #2:  Trucks Represent Nearly Half of New Vehicle Sales
   Sales of light trucks, which include sport utility vehicles (SUVs), vans, and pickup
   trucks, have risen steadily for over 20 years and now make up 46% of the U.S.
   light vehicle market—more than twice their market share as recently as  1983.
      Growth in the light truck market has been led recently by the explosive popularity of
SUVs. SUV sales have increased by more than a factor often from less than 190,000 in 1975
(less than 2% of the overall new light vehicle market) to over 3.2 million in 2000 (20% of the
market). Over the same period, the market share for vans doubled from 4.5 to 9%, and for
pickup trucks, grew from 13 to 17%. Between 1975 and 2000, market share for new passenger
cars and wagons decreased from 81 to 54%. EPA estimates that the new light trucks sold in
2000 will consume, over their lifetimes, about 56% of the fuel used by all of the new light
vehicles sold in 2000. For model year 2000, cars average 28.1 mpg, vans 22.5, pickups 20.1 and
SUVs 20.0.
                           Sales Fraction by Vehicle Type
              100%
                  Sales Fraction
               80% -
               60%
              40% -
               20% -
                                                               -Car
-SUV

-Van

-Pickup
                 1975
                         1980
                                  1985      1990

                                    Model Year
                                                  1995
                                                          2000
                                        111

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Highlight #3:  Fuel Economy is Being Traded for Weight and Power
   More efficient technologies continue to enter the new light vehicle fleet and are
   being used to increase light vehicle weight and acceleration rather than fuel
   economy. This year's light vehicles will have about the same average fuel
   economy as those built in model year 1981. Based on accepted engineering
   relationships, however, had the new 2000 light vehicle fleet had the same
   average weight and performance as in 1981, it could have achieved 25% higher
   fuel economy.
      More efficient technologies—such as engines with more valves and more sophisticated
fuel injection systems, and transmissions with lockup torque converters and extra gears—
continue to penetrate the new light vehicle fleet. The trend has clearly been to apply these new
technologies to increase average new vehicle weight, power, and performance while maintaining
fuel economy constant. This is reflected by heavier average vehicle weight (up 21% since 1981,
up 1% since 1999), rising average horsepower (up 79% since 1981, up 3% since 1999), and
lower 0 to 60 mile-per-hour acceleration time (26% faster since 1981, 2% faster since 1999.)
                         Percent Change from 1981 to 2000
                         in Average Vehicle Characteristics
             100%


              75%


              50%


              25%


              0%


             -25%


             -50%
 Percent Change
H Increase
• Decrease
                   Fuel Economy   Weight (Ibs)     Horsepower  O to 60 Time (sec)
                      -0.4%         +21%         +79%         -26%
                                        IV

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Highlight #4:  Ford and General Motors are Pledging to Increase Fuel
                Economy
   Ford Motor Company recently pledged to increase the fuel economy of its entire
   line of sport utility vehicle sales by 25 percent by the 2005 model year.  General
   Motors pledged to remain the truck fuel economy leader.  If all manufacturers
   were to voluntarily increase the average fuel economy of their entire light vehicle
   fleets by 25 percent by 2005, average new light vehicle fuel economy would
   increase from 24 mpg to 30 mpg.
      Ford's pledge would result in an increase in the laboratory fuel economy of Ford's SUVs
from about 18 mpg to about 23 mpg. General Motors, whose SUVs average around 19 mpg,
pledged to remain the truck fuel economy leader.

      If all manufacturers chose to match Ford's commitment to increase SUV fuel economy by
25 percent by 2005, then average SUV fuel economy would increase from 20.0 mpg to 25.0 mpg,
and overall light vehicle fuel economy would increase from 24.0 mpg to 25.2 mpg. Further, if all
manufacturers chose to voluntarily increase the average fuel economy of all of their light vehicles
by 25 percent, then the  average fleetwide fuel economy would rise from 24.0 mpg to 30.0 mpg.
                   Effect if Fuel Economy is Improved 25% by 2005

                 MPG
              35
              30
              25
              20 -
              15 -
              10
                                      If AM Vehicles Improve 25%
                                           If Just SUVs Improve 25%
               1970    1975    1980   1985    1990    1995    2000   2005

                                      Model Year
                                        V

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Highlight #5:  The Honda Insight Hybrid is the Most Fuel Efficient U.S. Vehicle
               Since 1975
    The model year 2000 Honda Insight two-seater is the most fuel efficient vehicle
    sold in the United States since 1975 and likely the most fuel efficient vehicle ever
    sold in the U. S. market.
       A major development in model year 2000 was the introduction of a gasoline/battery hybrid
vehicle. The Honda Insight is the first hybrid car ever sold in the U.S. market.  It has a manual
transmission and its drivetrain includes a gasoline-fueled engine, a battery used for traction, a
regenerative braking system, and an electric motor/generator. The two-seater Insight has a
laboratory fuel economy rating of 76.3 mpg, and Fuel Economy GuideAabel ratings of 61 mpg city
and 70 mpg highway.

       The Insight's laboratory fuel economy value is about 9 mpg higher than the second most
fuel efficient vehicle sold in the United States since 1975, a 1986 Geo Sprint mini-compact.  The
Insight's fuel economy is also about 25 mpg higher than that for the next most efficient model
year 2000 vehicles, the Volkswagen Beetle/Golf/Jetta diesels and a gasoline-powered Chevrolet
Metro. Like the Insight, all of these values are for models equipped with manual transmissions.
The introduction of the Insight may be the start of a trend towards increasing use of hybrid vehicle
technology. For model year 2001, Toyota is introducing  in the U.S. market a hybrid vehicle, the
Prius. This compact car has a laboratory fuel economy rating of 57.6 mpg, and Fuel Economy
Guide/label ratings of 52 mpg city and 45 mpg highway.
                          Comparison of the Honda Insight with
                           Other High Fuel Economy Vehicles
                 MY2000 Average Small Car
                   MY2000 Chevrolet Metro
                       MY2000 VW Diesels
                      MY1986 Geo Sprint
                    MY2000 Honda Insight
                                         10   20   30   40   50   60   70   80
                                              Miles per Gallon (mpg)
                                          VI

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For
    Light-Duty Automotive Technology and Fuel Economy Trends: 1975-2000 (EPA420-R-00-008)
is available electronically on the Office of Transportation and Air Quality's (OTAQ) Web site at:

         http://www.epa.gov/otaq/fetrends.htm

    Printed copies of this report are available from:

         U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
         National Service Center for Environmental Publications
         P.O. Box 42419
         Cincinnati, OH 45242-2419
         (800)490-9198

    You can also contact the OTAQ library for document information at:

         U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
         Office of Transportation and Air Quality Library
         2000 Traverwood Drive
         Ann Arbor, MI 48105
         (734)214-4311

    A copy of the Fuel Economy Guide giving city and highway fuel economy data for individual
models is available at http://www.fueleconomy.gov or by calling the U.S. Department of Energy's
National Alternative Fuels Hotline at (800) 423-1363.

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