EPA/600/R-08/088
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6 BASINS 4.0 Climate Assessment Tool (CAT): Supporting
7 Documentation and Users Manual
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20 THIS DOCUMENT IS A PRELIMINARY DRAFT. THIS INFORMATION IS DISTRIBUTED
21 SOLELY FOR THE PURPOSE OF PRE-DIS SEMINATION PEER REVIEW UNDER
22 APPLICABLE INFORMATION QUALITY GUIDELINES . IT HAS NOT BEEN FORMALLY
23 DISSEMINATED BY THE U. S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY. IT DOES
24 NOT REPRESENT AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED TO REPRESENT ANY
25 AGENCY DETERMINATION OR POLICY.
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35 Global Change Research Program
36 National Center for Environmental Assessment
37 Office of Research and Development
38 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
39 Washington, DC 20460
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1 DISCLAIMER
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4 This document has been reviewed in accordance with U.S. Environmental Protection
5 Agency policy and approved for publication. Mention of trade names or commercial products
6 does not constitute endorsement or recommendation for use.
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1 AUTHORS
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4 The National Center for Environmental Assessment (NCEA), Office of Research and
5 Development, was responsible for preparing this final report. Preparation of the draft report was
6 conducted by AQUA TERRA Consultants, under U. S. EPA Contract No. EP-C-6-029. The
7 authors are very grateful for the many thoughtful comments and suggestions provided by EPA
8 internal reviewers James Carleton, Jeffery Yang, Rick Ziegler and Yusuf Mohamoud
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11 AUTHORS
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14 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, National Center for Environmental Assessment,
15 Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC
16 Thomas Johnson
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19 AQUA TERRA Consultants, Decatur, GA
20 Paul Hummel
21 Johnlmhoff
22 John Kittle Jr.
23 Mark Gray
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i Table of Contents
3 Executive Summary 7
4 1.0 Introduction 9
5 1.1.1 Example Sources of Climate Change Information 13
6 2.0 CAT Methods and Capabilities 15
7 2.2HSPF 18
8 2.2.1 Benefits and Opportunities Offered by CAT/HSPF Linkage 22
9 2.3.1 Tools For Developing Climate Change Scenarios 25
10 2.3.1.1 Modify Historical Precipitation Records 27
11 2.3.1.1.1 Apply Multiplier to Full Record 28
12 2.3.1.1.2 Apply Seasonal Multiplier 28
13 2.3.1.1.3 Modify Partial Record 28
14 2.3.1.1.4 Represent Storm Intensification 29
15 2.3.1.1.5 Add or Remove Storm Events 30
16 2.3.1.2 Modify Historical Air Temperature Records and Regenerate Evapotranspiration
17 Record 31
18 2.3.1.2.1 Apply Increment or Decrement to Full Air Temperature Records and
19 Regenerate Evapotranspiration Record 32
20 2.3.1.2.2 Apply Seasonal Increment or Decrement to Air Temperature Records and
21 Regenerate Evapotranspiration Record 32
22 2.3.1.2.3 Adjust Partial Record and Regenerate Evapotranspiration Record 33
23 2.3.1.3 Combine multiple adjustments to create a climate change scenario 33
24 2.3.1.4 Create Synthetic Climate Change Scenarios 34
25 2.3.1.5 Exporting CAT Climate Change Scenarios as Text (ASCII) Files 34
26 2.3.2 Tools for Assessing Environmental Endpoints 35
27 2.3.2.1 Endpoint Options 35
28 2.3.2.2 Specify Value Ranges of Concern 36
29 2.3.2.3 Specify Time Periods of Concern (Seasonal and/or Partial Records) 37
30 2.3.3 RunningaHSPF Simulation Using BASINS CAT 37
31 2.3.4 Tools for Summarizing and Visualizing Results 37
32 2.3.4.1 Results Tables 37
33 2.3.4.2 Pivot Tables 37
34 2.3.4.4 Additional BASINS Tools 38
35 2.3.5 Using Scripts to Automate CAT Applications 38
36 3.0 Tutorials 39
37 3.1 Tools For Developing Climate Change Scenarios 44
38 3.1.1 Modify Historical Precipitation Records 44
39 3.1.1.1 Apply Multiplier to Full Record 44
40 3.1.1.2 Apply Seasonal Multiplier 51
41 3.1.1.3 Modify Partial Record 57
42 3.1.1.4 Represent Storm Intensification 63
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1 3.1.1.5 Add or Remove Storm Events 68
2 3.1.2 Modify Historical Air Temperature Records and Regenerate Evapotranspiration
3 Record 74
4 3.1.2.1 Apply Increment or Decrement to Full Air Temperature Records and Regenerate
5 Evapotranspiration Record 75
6 3.1.2.2 Apply Seasonal Increment or Decrement to Air Temperature Records and
7 Regenerate Evapotranspiration Record 82
8 3.1.2.3 Adjust Partial Record and Regenerate Evapotranspiration Record 92
9 3.1.3 Combine multiple changes to create a climate change scenario 99
10 3.1.4 Create Synthetic Climate Change Scenarios 101
11 Exporting Climate Change Scenarios as ASCII Text Files Ill
12 3.2 Tools for Assessing Environmental Endpoints 115
13 3.2.1 Endpoint Options 115
14 3.2.2 Specify Value Ranges of Concern 122
15 3.2.3 Specify Time Periods of Concern (Seasonal and/or Partial Records) 125
16 3.3 Running an HSPF Simulation Using BASINS CAT 129
17 3.4 Tools for Summarizing and Visualizing Results 132
18 3.4.1 Results Tables 132
19 3.4.2 Pivot Tables 135
20 3.4.3 Exporting Results for Use With External Software 138
21 3.4.4 Additional BASINS Tools 141
22 3.5 Using Scripts to Automate CAT Applications 150
23 4.0 CAT User's Manual 153
24 4.1 Climate Data 158
25 4.2 Assessment Endpoints 164
26 4.3 Running an Assessment 169
27 4.4 Results 171
28 5.0 A Case Study Application of the BASINS CAT in the Monocacy River Watershed 173
29 5.1 Background and Goals 173
30 5.2 Methods 174
31 5.2.1. Regional Climate Change Data 175
32 5.2.2. Scenario Analysis 175
33 5.3 Results 177
34 5.3.1 Synthetic Scenarios 177
35 5.3.2 Model-Based Scenarios 179
36 5.4 Conclusions 181
37 6.0 Other Resources 183
38 7.0 References 185
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1 PREFACE
2
3 The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Global Change Research Program (GCRP) is an
4 assessment-oriented program within the Office of Research and Development that focuses on
5 assessing how potential changes in climate and other global environmental stressors may impact
6 water quality, air quality, aquatic ecosystems, and human health in the United States. The
7 Program's focus on water quality is consistent with the Research Strategy of the U.S. Climate
8 Change Research Programthe federal umbrella organization for climate change science in the
9 U.S. governmentand is responsive to U.S. EPA's mission and responsibilities as defined by
10 the Clean Water Act and the Safe Drinking Water Act. A central goal of the EPA GCRP is to
11 provide EPA program offices, Regions, and other stakeholders with tools and information for
12 assessing and responding to any potential future impacts of climate change.
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14 In 2006 the EPA Global Change Research Program (GCRP) supported the development of a
15 Climate Assessment Tool (CAT) for the EPA Office of Water's Version 4 release of the
16 BASINS water quality modeling system. This report provides supporting documentation and
17 user support materials for the BASINS CAT tool.
18
19
20 Peter Preuss, Ph.D.
21 Director
22 National Center for Environmental Assessment
23 Office of Research and Development
24 U.S. Environmental Research Program
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1.0 Introduction
i Executive Summary
2
3 The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states
4 that "warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of
5 increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and
6 rising global average sea level" (IPCC, 2007). Projecting forward, continued warming
7 temperatures and changes in the amount, form, and intensity of precipitation are expected, albeit
8 with large and poorly understood regional variations.
9
10 The impacts of climate change on water and watershed systems will present, in many areas,
11 significant additional risk associated with the provision of safe, reliable water supplies,
12 compliance with water quality regulations, and the protection of aquatic ecosystems. Meeting
13 this challenge will require tools and information that allow water managers to explicitly address
14 the implications of climate change at the watershed scale in their decision making process.
15
16 The EPA Office of Research and Development, Global Change Research Program, in partnership
17 with EPA Office of Water supported the development of a Climate Assessment Tool (CAT) for
18 the Office of Water's BASINS 4 water quality modeling system. BASINS is a multi-purpose
19 environmental analysis system that integrates a geographical information system (GIS), national
20 watershed data, and state-of-the-art modeling tools including the watershed models HSPF and
21 SWAT into one package. BASINS CAT provides additional capabilities for assessing the
22 influence of climate variability and change on water quantity and quality at the watershed scale.
23 The basic philosophy behind BASINS CAT is to provide flexible capabilities for creating and
24 running climate change scenarios within the BASINS system. It's important to note that BASINS
25 does not provide actual data or other information about climate change. Rather, CAT simply
26 provides the capability for users to create and run scenarios reflecting changes they determine to
27 be of interest in their specific region or watershed. This capability is intended to support
28 BASINS users interested in assessing a wide range of "what if questions about how weather and
29 climate could affect their systems. Combined with the existing capabilities of BASINS models
30 for assessing the impacts of land use change and management practices, the climate assessment
31 capabilities provided by the CAT allow BASINS users to assess the impacts of alternative
32 futures including climate and land use change as well as implementation of adaptation strategies
33 (e.g. BMPs) for increasing resilience to climate change.
34
35 The purpose of this report is to provide in a single document a variety of documentation and user
36 support materials supporting the use of BASINS CAT. The report contains 6 chapters: Chapter 1
37 is a brief summary of the general philosophy behind development of BASINS CAT, Chapter 2
38 provides a "what and why" discussion of BASINS CAT capabilities, Chapter 3 illustrates
39 application of the tool through a series hands-on of tutorials, Chapter 4 provides additional basic
40 information about the development and application of the tool in the form of a user's manual,
41 Chapter 5 briefly describes a case study application of BASINS CAT illustrating the use of the
42 tool to assess the potential impacts of climate change on a mid-Atlantic watershed, and Chapter 6
43 is a listing of additional resources for learning more about climate change and the potential
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1 impacts of climate change on water resources. The material presented in this report will also be
2 made available in a keyword searchable form through the online help function within the Office
3 of Waters BASINS web site.
4
5 BASINS CAT is seamlessly integrated into the BASINS system through a series of graphical
6 user interfaces. Specifically, application of BASINS CAT requires a pre-existing, calibrated
7 HSPF application, a WDM file containing HSPF input meteorological time series, and an output
8 file(s) to which HSPF results are output (WDM and/or Binary)
9 BASINS CAT essentially provides additional capabilities to BASINS users in 2 general areas; a
10 flexible preprocessing capability for creating meteorological time series reflecting any user-
11 determined change in temperature and precipitation for use as input to the HSPF model, and a
12 post-processing capability for calculating management targets (endpoints) useful to water and
13 watershed managers from model output.
14 BASINS CAT enables adjustments to historical records of only two meteorological data types,
15 precipitation and air temperature. Users can adjust historical data using standard arithmetic
16 operators applied monthly, seasonally or over any other increment of time. This flexibility allows
17 adjustments to be made reflecting long term seasonal climate change, as well as short-term, year-
18 to-year changes such as changes in the intensity of periodic drought. In addition, adjustments to a
19 climate variable can also be applied uniformly to all "events", or be selectively imposed only on
20 those historical events that exceed (or fall below) a specified threshold. Future climate change is
21 expected to result in an acceleration or 'intensification' of the hydrologic cycle, whereby a
22 greater proportion of annual precipitation occurs as larger magnitude events. A general trend
23 during the 20th century towards increasing precipitation intensity has already been shown
24 throughout the U.S. The ability to selectively adjust only events within user-defined size classes
25 allows climate change scenarios to be created reflecting these changes. Finally, CAT also
26 provides a capability for users to create time series that contain more frequent precipitation
27 events.
28 The post-processing capability provided by CAT allows users to calculate hydrologic or water
29 quality endpoint metrics such as an x-year, y-duration high or low flow event, an annual water
30 yields, or an annual pollutant load. This capability provides a unique opportunity for water and
31 watershed managers to assess the impacts of climate change in terms of the metrics that are
32 traditionally used for understanding impacts and making decisions within their specific
33 professions or management domains. The user may select as endpoints any HSPF state variable
34 or flux that is being modeled and output as a result of the model set up. If so desired, CAT
35 enables users to further refine their analyses by considering only time periods of concern.
36 A series of step-by-step tutorials are provided illustrating application of the tool to creating
37 scenarios reflecting a wide range of potential changes in climate. A users manual and case study
38 assessment using BASINS CAT provide additional information about how BASINS CAT can be
39 used to understand and manage the potential impacts of climate change on water and watershed
40 systems.
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1.0 Introduction
i 1.0 Introduction
2 Watershed systems are influenced by climatic drivers including the amount, form, seasonality,
3 and event characteristics of precipitation, as well as temperature, solar radiation, wind and other
4 factors affecting hydrologic and biogeochemical processes (Gleick and Adams, 2000). The
5 seasonal dynamics of snow accumulation and melt are particularly important in the northwest
6 and mountainous regions. Changes in any of these attributes can influence the amount, timing
7 and/or location of surface runoff, groundwater recharge, and the quality of water. Climate also
8 interacts strongly with human use and demand for water, water treatment and other built
9 infrastructure, and non-climatic watershed stressors such as non-point pollution loading and
10 urban stormwater runoff. Ultimately, these changes may be reflected in key management targets,
11 such as frequency flow events (e.g., the 100-year flood), maximum water temperatures, or
12 nutrient loads.
13
14 Managing the risk associated with seasonal to annual climate variability has long been a
15 principal focus of water and watershed management. Management plans are developed, and
16 water infrastructure is designed and operated to be resilient to anticipated variability in climate.
17 In most areas, however, instrumental records are limited to a relatively short period within the
18 twentieth century, and estimates of future conditions are made assuming that climate is
19 stationary. There is growing concern, however, that this assumption may no longer be valid, and
20 that long term climatic trends may lead to unprecedented future conditions and events (IPPC,
21 2007).
22
23 There is now general consensus among climate scientists that human activities including the
24 combustion of fossil fuels and landcover change have resulted in, and will likely continue to
25 result in, long-term climatic change (IPCC, 2007). The 2007 Fourth Assessment Report of the
26 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states that "warming of the climate system
27 is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean
28 temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level" (IPCC,
29 2007). The global average temperature has risen 1.4°F in the last century. At the same time many
30 regions have experienced changes in precipitation amount, and an increase in the frequency of
31 heavy precipitation events (i.e. the proportion of annual precipitation occurring as heavy
32 precipitation events; IPCC, 2007). Projecting forward, continued warming temperatures and
33 changes in the amount, form, and intensity of precipitation are expected, albeit with large and
34 poorly understood regional variations.
35
36 The impacts of climate change on water and watershed systems will present, in many areas,
37 significant additional risk associated with the provision of safe, reliable water supplies,
38 compliance with water quality regulations, and the protection of aquatic ecosystems. In addition,
39 independent of the behavior of the climate, demographic and socioeconomic changes may
40 increase the vulnerability of certain regions or sectors to current climatic variability. To reduce
41 the likelihood of future impacts, water managers must be able to assess potential risks and
42 opportunities, and where appropriate, implement practices and strategies to adapt to future
43 climatic conditions. Meeting this challenge will require tools and information that allow water
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1 managers to explicitly address the implications of climate change at the watershed scale in their
2 decision making process.
O
4 The EPA Office of Research and Development, Global Change Research Program, in partnership
5 with EPA Office of Water supported the development of a Climate Assessment Tool (CAT) for
6 the Office of Water's BASINS 4 water quality modeling system. BASINS is a multi-purpose
7 environmental analysis system that integrates a geographical information system (GIS), national
8 watershed data, and state-of-the-art modeling tools including the watershed models HSPF and
9 SWAT into one package (U.S. EPA, 2001; see http:// www.epa.gov/waterscience^asins/).
10 BASINS CAT provides additional capabilities for assessing the influence of climate variability
11 and change on water quantity and quality at the watershed scale. Combined with the existing
12 capabilities of BASINS models for assessing the impacts of land use change and management
13 practices, the climate assessment capabilities provided by the CAT allow BASINS users to
14 assess the impacts of alternative futures including climate and land use change as well as
15 implementation of adaptation strategies (e.g. BMPs) for increasing resilience to climate change.
16 The CAT itself does not, however, provide an explicit capability for developing and running land
17 use and BMP scenarios.
18
19 The purpose of this report is to compile in a single document a variety of documentation and user
20 support materials useful to BASINS CAT users.
21
22 1.1 Development Philosophy
23
24 Recent advances in climate science have greatly improved our understanding of Earth's climate
25 including the multiple, complex natural and anthropogenic processes governing long term
26 climate change. Current climate models are extremely useful for understanding general system
27 behavior, response to climate forcing, and for characterizing broad scale pattern and trends.
28 Current climate models are less skilled, however, at predicting climate at the local and regional
29 scales needed by water managers. It is thus not possible to know with certainty the future
30 climatic conditions to which a given region or watershed will be exposed. Accurate predictions
31 of future climate should not be considered a necessary precursor, however, to taking action
32 (Sarewitz et al., 2000). An alternative approach is to consider the response of a watershed or
33 water system to a range of plausible future climatic conditions, termed "climate scenarios"
34 (IPCC-TGCIA, 2007). Using scenario analysis, water managers can assess their exposure to
35 climate-related risks, and using this information effectively manage risk by implementing
36 practices and strategies to make systems robust to a wide range of plausible future conditions and
37 events (Sarewitz et al., 2000).
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39 The climate scenarios used in scenario analysis can be developed in a variety of ways depending
40 on the type(s) of information about climate change available and, equally as importantly, the
41 goals and requirements of a specific assessment activity. Each scenario should be generally
42 consistent with global projections of change, physically plausible, and applicable in the context
43 of a particular assessment activity. Collectively, the set of scenarios considered should be
44 representative of a broad range of future changes that a given region or watershed may
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1.0 Introduction
1 experience. An excellent, comprehensive reference on the use of scenario data for assessing
2 climate change impacts and adaptation is available from the IPCC (IPCC-TGICA, 2007;
3 http://unfccc.int/resource/cd_roms/nal/v_and_a/Resoursce_materials/Climate/Scenari oData.pdf).
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5 The IPCC-TGCIA describes three different types of scenarios based on different types of
6 information about climate: synthetic scenarios, analogue scenarios, and scenarios based on
7 outputs from climate models. Synthetic scenarios describe techniques where particular climatic
8 attributes are changed by a realistic but arbitrary amount, often according to a qualitative
9 interpretation of climate model simulations for a region. For example, adjustments of baseline
10 temperatures by +1, 2, 3 and 4°C and baseline precipitation by ±5, 10, 15 and 20 percent could
11 represent various magnitudes of future change (IPCC-TGIA, 2007). Analogue scenarios are
12 constructed by identifying recorded climate regimes which may resemble the future climate in a
13 given region. These records can be obtained either from the past (temporal analogues) or from -
14 another region at the present (spatial analogues). Model based scenarios are developed using
15 output from modeling experiments with GCM (General Circulation Model) and RCM (Regional
16 Climate Model) models that simulate the response of the global climate system to increasing
17 greenhouse gas concentrations. A more detailed discussion of climate models and scenarios
18 based on climate models is provided by the IPCC-TGICA.
19
20 The philosophy behind BASINS CAT is to provide flexible capabilities for creating and running
21 climate change scenarios like those described by the IPCC-TGICA within the BASINS system.
22 It's important to note that BASINS does not provide actual data or other information about
23 climate change for any particular region. Rather, CAT simply provides the capability for users to
24 create and run scenarios reflecting changes they determine to be of interest in their specific
25 region or watershed. This capability is intended to support BASINS users interested in assessing
26 a wide range of "what if questions about how weather and climate could affect their systems.
27
28 The general concept of a pre-processing capability allowing model users to create climate change
29 scenarios for assessment is applicable to any modeling platform. BASINS was considered an
30 ideal platform for such a tool, however, as it is well known, widely distributed, and provides
31 access to several watershed models and other tools supporting watershed management.
32 Moreover, water and watershed systems are also impacted by non-climatic stressors such as
33 landcover change and pollutant discharges. In many areas these impacts may be greater than
34 those due to changes in climate. It is thus important to understand climate change impacts in the
35 context of specific watersheds and all stressors affecting the system. The BASINS system was
36 developed to support assessments of watershed land use change, pollutant discharges, and
37 management practices on water quality (U.S. EPA, 2007). As mentioned previously, BASINS
38 models have an existing capability for assessing the impacts of land use change, and the climate
39 assessment capabilities provided by the CAT allow BASINS users to assess the combined
40 impacts of climate and land use change. The CAT does not, however, provide an explicit
41 capability for developing and running land use change scenarios.
42
43 The actual, specific components of a climate scenario necessary for conducting an assessment
44 are meteorological data reflecting the potential changes of concern at a spatial and temporal
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1 resolution suitable for running a hydrologic model or otherwise informing upon a decision. If
2 GCM and/or RCM data of adequate resolution is available, climate model output can be used
3 directly as the necessary meteorological data for use with a hydrologic or other model. Direct use
4 of data from climate models restricts the number and type of scenarios able to be evaluated,
5 however, and the coarse spatial resolution of climate models can limit applicability. An
6 alternative approach is to couple available information about climate and climate change with a
7 stochastic weather generator to produce meteorological data at the necessary temporal and spatial
8 resolution for developing scenarios. Stochastic weather generators are a powerful tool useful for
9 a variety of applications, but their utility is limited in studies of large watersheds where the
10 spatial heterogeneity of climate must be represented. The problem results from the fact that each
11 run with a weather generator is a randomly generated time series, thus the spatial correlation
12 structure among adjacent or nearby locations represented by different runs is lost. A final
13 approach for creating scenarios is by modifying representative windows of historical weather
14 data from specific locations (e.g. NCDC weather stations) to reflect information about future
15 climate change from any available source, or otherwise to reflect any potential change of
16 concern. This last approach, modifying historical weather data, is the approach used by BASINS
17 CAT. It is relatively simple to implement, able to represent a wide range of potential changes
18 based on any available knowledge, whether quantitative or qualitative, about future climate
19 change, and the spatial correlation structure among adjacent locations can be maintained in
20 applications to large watersheds (by modifying existing weather records from all locations over
21 the same base period the spatial correlation structure is preserved).
22
23 Change scenarios are created with CAT by selecting a period of historical data to be modified
24 (e.g. from an NCDC weather station used as meteorological input to a watershed model), and
25 performing a series of operations or "adjustments" on that baseline time series. CAT allows
26 adjustments to temperature and precipitation time series. Creating scenarios by modifying
27 historical data provides a simple but effective form of spatial and temporal downscaling,
28 whereby projected climate change data at coarse spatial resolution (e.g. GCM grid cells) is
29 interpolated to the location of individual weather stations, and projected change data at coarser
30 temporal resolution (e.g. monthly or seasonal average changes) is applied to finer resolution data
31 from the historical record (e.g. daily or hourly data at specific weather station).
32
33 As described previously, scenarios can be developed based on any available information about
34 climate change and/or user goals for an analysis. For example, scenarios can be developed to
35 reflect re-occurrence of an extreme historical condition or event, to specifically address a
36 hypothesis about the sensitivity of a hydrologic or water quality endpoint to a particular type of
37 climate change, or to reflect attributes of a projection based on a climate modeling experiment.
38 In each case, creating a scenario using BASINS CAT requires that the user express the desired
39 change as a series of adjustments to historical time series using the specific capabilities provided
40 by CAT. BASINS CAT was developed with a range of capabilities for adjusting time series
41 intended to provide the flexibility needed to represent a wide range of potential climate change.
42 When developing scenarios to reflect specific changes such as a projection from a climate
43 modeling experiment, the types of adjustment possible are limited by the available information
44 (e.g. the type and temporal resolution of available information such as projected monthly versus
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1.0 Introduction
1 seasonal average temperature changes). With respect to model based projection data, this often a
2 function of the way data is summarized and distributed. Creating scenarios based on historical
3 variability or some other type of historical observation is similarly limited by the type and
4 resolution of observations (e.g. annual versus monthly low precipitation). Ultimately, however,
5 the requirements for creating scenarios suitable for an assessment activity depend on the context
6 and goals of the assessment.
7
8 In addition to supporting the creation of scenarios, CAT also manages the input and processing
9 of scenarios using HSPF watershed model (BASINS CAT is currently available only with the
10 HSPF model).
11
12 BASINS CAT also provides a post-processing capability to calculate a range of user selected
13 hydrologic and water quality management targets or "endpoints" such as mean annual flow, a
14 mean monthly flow, 100-year flood event, 10-year seven-day (7Q10) low flow event, or annual
15 nutrient load.
16
17 1.1.1 Example Sources of Climate Change Information
18
19 Future climate change is expected to vary considerably in different regions of the country.
20 Selected sources of climate change information, data, and guidance concerning the use of climate
21 change data are listed below. Most of the sources listed below provide climate change
22 projections developed from climate modeling experiments using GCM or coupled GCM/RCM
23 models. Information from these and other sources may be used to develop scenarios for different
24 regions of the U.S. Note that this is not an exhaustive list. Information and guidance about
25 climate change in different parts of the country can be obtained from additional sources
26 including local government agencies, universities, and other groups. Over time, additional
27 information about climate change is also likely to become available as climate models are
28 improved, new modeling experiments are conducted, and research such as investigations of
29 paleo-climate better reveal historical patterns of climate variability.
30
31 IPCC Data Distribution Centre (DDC): http://www.ipcc-data.org/
32
33 Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and
34 Intercomparison: http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/about ipcc.php
35
36 Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory/Bureau of Reclamation/Santa Clara University:
37 http://gdo-dcp.ucllnl.org/downscaled_cmip3_projections/dcplnterface.html
38
39 North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP):
40 http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/data/index.html
41
42 Consortium of Atlantic Regional Assessments (CARA; mid-Atlantic U.S. region):
43 http://www.cara.psu.edu/climate/models.asp
44
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1 University of Washington, Climate Impacts Group (northwest U.S. region):
2 http://www.cses.washington.edu/data/ipccar4/
O
4 It must be noted that climate projections based on climate modeling experiments are not
5 predictions, or the "most likely" future condition. Rather, these are projections of how future
6 climate could change based on a specific set of assumptions adopted for a particular experiment
7 (e.g. future greenhouse gas emissions) and including an element of uncertainty inherent in
8 modeling a highly complex system. As discussed previously, water managers can assess their
9 exposure to climate-related risks by considering the sensitivity of key management goals to a
10 wide range of plausible climatic conditions and events. This information can then be used to
11 guide decisions about appropriate management responses.
12
13 1.2 About This Document
14
15 The purpose of this report is to compile in a single document a variety of documentation and user
16 support materials useful to BASINS CAT users. In addition to the current document, much of the
17 material found in this report will be made accessible online in html format through the BASINS
18 Version 4 help function.
19
20 This document is composed of 6 chapters:
21
22 Chapter lisa brief summary of the background and general philosophy behind
23 development of the BASINS CAT.
24 Chapter 2 provides a "what and why" discussion of BASINS CAT capabilities.
25 Chapter 3 addresses illustrates application of the tool through a series of hands-on
26 tutorials.
27 Chapter 4 provides additional basic information about the development and application of
28 the tool in the form of a user's manual.
29 Chapter 5 briefly describes a case study application of the BASINS CAT illustrating the
30 use of the tool to assess the potential impacts of climate change on a mid-Atlantic
31 watershed.
32 Chapter 6 is a listing of additional resources for learning more about climate change and
33 the potential impacts of climate change on water resources.
34
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2.0 Tools and Methods
i 2.0 CAT Methods and Capabilities
2
3 The CAT development effort resulted from the need to provide tools and information to help
4 water managers understand and manage the potential impacts of climate change on water
5 resources at the watershed scale. This required a flexible approach for developing climate
6 change scenarios, coupled with a robust watershed modeling system. EPA's BASINS modeling
7 system is a widely know, well documented modeling system developed in the late 1990's to
8 support watershed management. As such, the BASINS system provides a unique platform upon
9 which additional capabilities for assessing the potential impacts of climate change on water and
10 watershed systems can be developed.
11 BASINS provides a suite of watershed models, from sophisticated broad-spectrum watershed
12 models to agricultural models to planning and management level models, plus supporting tools
13 and data, all within one package. BASINS CAT is available for use with the Hydrological
14 Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF), a mathematical watershed model for simulating
15 hydrologic and water quality processes in natural and man-made water systems. HSPF has been
16 widely applied in the planning, design, and operation of water resources systems for well over a
17 decade, and is arguably one of the best verified watershed models currently available.
18 Chapter 2 first introduces the BASINS modeling system and the HSPF watershed model. It then
19 describes the capabilities for assessing the impacts of climate change on water and watershed
20 systems provided by the Climate Assessment Tool.
21
22 2.1 BASINS
23
24 The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's BASINS system (USEPA, 2007;
25 http://www.epa.gov/waterscience/basins/) is designed to support watershed and water quality-
26 based studies by facilitating access to environmental information, modeling and analysis tools,
27 and providing an integrated framework for examining management alternatives. The BASINS
28 system combines the following five components: 1) a comprehensive collection of national
29 cartographic and environmental databases, 2) environmental assessment tools (to summarize
30 results; establish pollutant source-impact interrelationships; and selectively retrieve data); 3)
31 utilities (e.g., import tool, download tool, grid projector, post-processor, and land use, soil
32 classification and overlay tool); 4) automated watershed characterization reports (for eight
33 different data types); and 5) a suite of watershed models including HSPF (Bicknell et al., 2005),
34 AQUATOX (Clough and Park, 2006), and PLOAD (USEPA, 2007). A recent EPA report,
35 "Handbook for Developing Watershed Plans to Restore and Protect Our Waters" (USEPA,
36 2005), found that among 37 current watershed models and modeling systems, BASINS contained
37 the most robust suite of assessment capabilities (based on level of complexity, simulation time
38 step, hydrologic regimes, water quality constituents and BMP simulation options).
39
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1 This suite of models, support tools, and national environmental data provide an effective
2 platform for conducting varied and complex studies of environmental stressors, watershed
3 responses, and watershed management throughout the United States. The main interface to
4 BASINS is provided through a Geographic Information System (GIS). Because GIS combines
5 mapping tools with a database management system, it provides the integrated framework
6 necessary to bring modeling tools together with environmental spatial and tabular data. Version
7 4.0 of BASINS is the first to be primarily based on a non-proprietary, open-source GIS
8 foundation (http ://www.mapwindow.org/). By using open-source GIS tools and non-proprietary
9 data formats, the core of BASINS has become independent of any proprietary GIS platform
10 while still accommodating users of several different GIS software platforms. The underlying
11 software architecture provides a clear separation between interface components, general GIS
12 functions, and GIS platform-specific functions. Separating these components and functions
13 provides a future migration path for using core GIS functions from other GIS packages or for
14 accommodating future updates to the already-supported GIS packages.
15 With its open-source plug-in framework and growing number of data sources, a number of new
16 models and analysis tools have been and are being added to BASINS 4.0. On the modeling side
17 of the system, a draft version of a plug-in for EPA's DFLOW model (USEPA, 2006a) has been
18 developed and will be released in early 2008. Work on development of a plug-in for the Soil and
19 Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model (Arnold and Fohrer, 2005) will be completed by early
20 2009. Work has begun on development of a plug-in for EPA's Water Quality Analysis
21 Simulation Program (WASP) model (USEPA, 2006b), and release is scheduled for 2008. Plans
22 for a plug-in for the Stormwater Management Model (SWMM) (Rossman, 2007) have also been
23 developed. A data analysis tool recently added to BASINS is the USGS Surface Water Statistics
24 (SWSTAT) software (USGS, 2008), which is a software package for statistically analyzing time-
25 series data. A BASINS plug-in now provides a user interface to functions including frequency
26 distribution, trend analysis, and n-day annual time series.
27 Data sources available to BASINS users continue to expand. 2008 additions will include
28 download and system interaction capabilities for NHDPlus (EPA & USGS's enhanced
29 hydrography dataset - http://www.horizon-systems.com/nhdplus/), TerraServer (satellite and
30 aerial imagery - http://terraserver-usa.com/), NLCD 2001 (national land cover dataset from the
31 Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics Consortium - http://www.mrlc.gov/), and Modernized
32 STORET (EPA's water quality, biological and physical dataset - http://www.epa.gov/storet/).
16
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2.0 Tools and Methods
1
2
3
Tool
Political
Boundaries
TIGER Line
and Census
Monitoring
Data
Hydrography
Meteorological
Data [Weather
15)
BASINS 4.0 System Overview
Tools and Utllfles
WaterstietS Reports
acdBlona
User Supplied
Data
Watershed Delineation
[Automatic 01 Manual)
Parameter Estimation
Watershed ModeBng
HSPFIWirtHSPF
Decision Making and
Analysis
Postprocessing
GcnScn
Pollutant Loading Estimator
m
i-FTfl . f)
iwvitog in a iMiurt u
V/atershed Management
Sensitivity Analyele
Climate Analysis Tool
-
Nutrient Management
Source Water Protection
TMDLs
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Figure 2-1. U.S. EPA BASINS Version 4.0 Integrated Modeling System
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i 2.2 HSPF
2
3 BASINS CAT is currently available for use with the Hydrological Simulation Program-
4 FORTRAN (HSPF) watershed model (Bicknell et al., 2005). HSPF is a mathematical model
5 developed under joint EPA and USGS sponsorship for simulating hydrologic and water quality
6 processes in natural and man-made water systems. HSPF is a well documented, broadly
7 applicable analytical tool which has an established record of applications in the planning, design,
8 and operation of water resources systems.
9 The HSPF model uses information on the time history of rainfall, temperature, evaporation, and
10 parameters related to land use patterns, soil characteristics, and agricultural practices to simulate
11 the processes that occur in a watershed. The initial result of an HSPF simulation is a time series
12 simulation of the quantity and quality of water transported over the land surface and through
13 various soil zones down to the groundwater aquifers. Runoff flow rate, sediment loads, nutrients,
14 pesticides, toxic chemicals, and other quality constituent concentrations can also be predicted.
15 The model uses these results and stream channel information to simulate instream processes.
16 From this information, HSPF produces a time series simulation of water quantity and quality at
17 any point in the watershed.
18 Simulating the watershed processes associated with wet-weather occurrences are particularly
19 complex and require continuous/dynamic analyses of the hydrologic and quality processes
20 associated with landscape and land activities together with in-stream fate and transport
21 processes. HSPF offers a complete and defensible process-based watershed model for addressing
22 water quality impairments associated with diffuse pollution. Although other watershed models
23 are available, they are often limited to specific land uses or do not include in-stream response
24 processes. The HSPF model can be configured to represent all types of land uses, offers the
25 ability to include land use activities and potential management controls, allows for dynamic
26 simulation, and a detailed representation of critical conditions associated with high flows and
27 wet-weather conditions.
28 HSPF has been used extensively to assess the hydrologic and water quality impacts associated
29 with land use/landcover change and implementation of watershed best different management
30 practices (BMPs). Other potential applications include:
31 Hydropower operations and dam removal studies
32 River basin and watershed planning
33 River restoration planning
34 Storm drainage analyses
35 Water quality planning and management
36 Point and nonpoint source pollution analyses
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2.0 Tools and Methods
1 Soil erosion and sediment transport studies
2 Evaluation of urban and agricultural best management practices
3 Fate, transport, exposure assessment, and control of pesticides, nutrients, and toxic
4 substances
5
6 HSPF can be applied to most watersheds using available meteorologic and hydrologic data; soils
7 and topographic information; and land use, drainage, and system (physical and man-made)
8 characteristics. The specific data requirements for running an HSPF simulation are:
9 1. Meteorologic data (for simulation period)
10 a. Precipitation, (daily, hourly, or 15-minute values for small watersheds)
11 b. Daily pan evaporation
12 c. Daily maximum and minimum air temperature (needed for water temp and snow
13 only)
14 d. Total daily wind movement (needed for water temperature and snow only)
15 e. Total daily solar radiation (needed for water temperature and snow only)
16 f Daily dewpoint temperature (needed for water temperature and snow only)
17 g. Average daily cloud cover (needed for water temperature and snow only)
18
19 2. Watershed land use/land cover characteristics (preferably as GIS layers)
20 a. Topographic map/data of watershed and subwatersheds, and/or DEM coverage
21 b. Land use/cropping delineation and acreages (as GIS layer)
22 c. Soils delineation and characteristics (GIS soils coverage of soil texture and/or SCS
23 Hydrologic Soil Groups)
24 d. Isohyetal map of mean annual rainfall (GIS layer preferred)
25
26 3. Hydrography and channel characterization
27 a. Channel lengths, slopes, cross-sections and geometry, rating curves, or DEM of
28 channel and overbank areas
29 b. Channel bed composition (e.g. particle dist, nutrients, pesticides)
30 c. Diversions, point sources, channelized segments, etc.
31 d. Tributary area (and land use distribution) for each channel reach (or available from
32 GIS land use layers)
33 e. Waterbody/reservoir bathymetry (or stage-volume-surface area relationships), stage-
34 discharge relationships, operational procedures, and spillway characteristics
35
36 4. Hydrologic and water quality observations (needed for model calibrations)
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1 a. Flow rates during all monitored storm events
2 b. Flow volume/rate totals for storm/daily, monthly, annual
3 c. Snow depths (for areas with significant snow accumulation)
4 d. Sediment mass losses in runoff and sediment concentrations in runoff and receiving
5 water
6 e. Chemical/constituent mass losses in runoff and concentrations in runoff and receiving
7 water
8 f Soil concentrations of constituent/nutrient forms, if available
9 g. Estimated/actual constituent concentrations in precipitation
10 h. Particle size distributions (sand, silt, clay fractions) of soils, eroded sediments, and
11 channel bed sediments
12
13 While the data requirements running an HSPF simulation are fairly extensive, HSPF users
14 benefit from a wide range of documentation and user support materials developed over decades
15 of model applications and made available to HSPF users. Perhaps more importantly, HSPF has a
16 relatively large number of parameters that need adjustment to properly calibrate the model.
17 Assistance in setting model parameter values is available, however, from sources including the
18 HSPF Application Guide (Donigian et al., 1984), an interactive database of parameter HSPF
19 values used for previous model applications (Donigian et al., 1998), and in the form of Techical
20 Notes available at the EPA BASINS web site.
21
22 HSPF contains three application modules that are used to simulate the hydrologic/hydraulic and
23 water quality components of the watershed:
24 1. PERLND - Simulates runoff and water quality constituents from pervious land areas in
25 the watershed.
26 2. IMPLND - Simulates impervious land area runoff and water quality.
27 3. RCHRES - Simulates the movement of runoff water and its associated water quality
28 constituents in stream channels and mixed reservoirs.
29 PERLND simulates the water quality and quantity processes that occur on pervious land areas,
30 and it is the most frequently used part of HSPF. To simulate these processes, PERLND models
31 the movement of water along three paths: overland flow, interflow, and groundwater flow. Each
32 of these three paths experiences differences in time delay and differences in interactions between
33 water and its various dissolved constituents. A variety of storage zones are used to represent the
34 processes which occur on the land surface and in the soil horizons. Snow accumulation and melt
35 are also included in the PERLND module so that the complete range of physical processes
36 affecting the generation of water and associated water quality constituents can be represented.
37 Some of the many capabilities available in the PERLND module include the simulation of:
38 water budget and runoff components
39 snow accumulation and melt
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2.0 Tools and Methods
1 sediment production and removal
2 accumulation and washoff of user-defined nonpoint pollutants
3 nitrogen and phosphorus fate and runoff
4 pesticide fate and runoff
5 movement of a tracer chemical
6
7 IMPLND is used for impervious land surfaces, primarily for urban land categories, where little
8 or no infiltration occurs. However, some land processes do occur, and water, solids, and various
9 pollutants are removed from the land surface by moving laterally downslope to a pervious area,
10 stream channel, or reservoir. IMPLND includes most of the pollutant washoff capabilities of the
11 commonly used urban runoff models such as the Stormwater Management Model (SWMM).
12 One difference between PERLND and IMPLND process representation is of note. In the
13 SOLIDS code section, IMPLND offers the capability to model the accumulation and removal of
14 urban solids (i.e. solids on impervious areas) by processes which are independent of storm events
15 (e.g., street cleaning, decay, wind deposition or scour). To use this option, the modeler needs to
16 assign monthly or constant rates of solids accumulation and removal, estimate parameter values
17 for impervious solids washoff (analogous to methods in the SEDMNT module of PERLND), and
18 provide 'potency factor' values for constituents associated with the solids removed.
19 Alternatively, the IQUAL module can be used to represent accumulation and removal processes
20 for each constituent individually, analogous to the PQUAL approach.
21 The instream module of HSPF (named RCHRES) simulates the movement of runoff water and
22 its associated water quality constituents in stream channels and mixed reservoirs. The module
23 features individual compartments for modeling hydraulics, constituent advection, conservative
24 (i.e., non-reactive) constituents such as total dissolved solids or chlorides, water temperature,
25 inorganic sediment, generalized quality constituents, specific constituents involved in
26 biochemical transformations, and acid mine drainage phenomena.
27 The model employs the following methods and capabilities. Additional detail on HSPF model
28 capabilities and formulations is available in the HSPF User's Manual.
29 Backwards finite difference solution scheme
30 1-D branching, uni-directional solution
31 Flow routing technique by kinematic wave methods (momentum is not considered)
32 Non-cohesive (sand) and cohesive (silt, clay) sediments are simulated; migration of each
33 sediment fraction between suspension in water and the bed is modeled by balancing
34 deposition and scour computations
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1 Code provides the user with the capability to model any subset of the following generalized
2 processes: advection of dissolved material; decay of dissolved material by hydrolysis,
3 oxidation by free radical oxygen, photolysis, volatilization, biodegradation, and/or
4 generalized first-order decay; production of one modeled constituent as a result of decay of
5 another constituent; advection of adsorbed suspended material; deposition and scour of
6 adsorbed material; and adsorption/desorption between dissolved and sediment-associated
7 phases.
8 Detailed simulation of constituents involved in biochemical transformations. Included are
9 dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), ammonia, nitrite, nitrate, phosphate,
10 phytoplankton, benthic algae, zooplankton, refractory organics, and pH.
11 Primary dissolved oxygen and BOD balances simulated with provisions for decay, settling,
12 benthic sinks and sources, re-aeration, and sinks and sources related to plankton.
13 Primary nitrogen balance modeled as sequential reactions from ammonia through nitrate.
14 Ammonia volatilization, ammonification, denitrification, and ammonium
15 adsorption/desorption interactions with suspended sediment fractions considered; both
16 ammonium and phosphate adsorption/desorption to suspended sediment fractions modeled
17 using an equilibrium, linear isotherm approach.
18 Three types of plankton - phytoplankton, attached algae and zooplankton. Phytoplankton
19 processes include growth, respiration, sinking, zooplankton predation, and death;
20 zooplankton processes include growth, respiration and death; and benthic algae processes are
21 growth, respiration and death.
22 Hydrogen ion activity (pH) calculated by either of two independent code sections: (1)
23 compute pH by considering carbonate system equilibria, or (2) perform user-defined instream
24 chemical computations to represent acid mine drainage and acid rain affected waters.
25
26 HSPF applications since its inception in 1980 have been worldwide and number in the hundreds,
27 if not thousands; nearly all HSPF applications have included application of both the landscape
28 (PERLND, IMPLND) modules and the receiving water (RCHRES) module (e.g. Donigian et al.,
29 1983; Mulkey et al., 1986; Johanson, 1989; Linker et al., 1998; AQUA TERRA and HydroQual,
30 2001). Numerous HSPF applications have focused only on simulating watershed hydrology,
31 however, a wide range of applications also address nutrient loading and other water quality
32 issues. HSPFParm, an interactive database of HSPF model parameters, includes data for over 40
33 watersheds in 14 states (Donigian et al., 1998). The model has been applied to such diverse
34 climatic regimes as the tropical rain forests of the Caribbean, arid conditions of Saudi Arabia and
35 the Southwestern U.S., the humid Eastern U.S. and Europe, and snow covered regions of Eastern
36 Canada.
37 2.2.1 Benefits and Opportunities Offered by CAT/HSPF Linkage
38
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2.0 Tools and Methods
1 A range of physical, chemical, and biological processes interact in complex ways to influence
2 water and watershed systems. The HSPF model has for decades provided a powerful tool for
3 exploring and understanding the potential outcomes of changes in watershed land use,
4 management, and other watershed stressors. Watersheds are known to be highly climate
5 sensitive, and climatic drivers are key inputs required to run watershed simulations. BASINS
6 CAT thus represents a simple extension of current modeling capabilities intended to facilitate the
7 use of watershed models to explore and understand the impacts of changes in climate on
8 watershed systems. BASINS CAT currently is available for use only with the HSPF watershed
9 model. The conceptual basis of CAT, however, is not specific to the HSPF model and is easily
10 transferable to any other watershed model.
11 HSPF was considered a good model to use with BASINS CAT because of its long and proven
12 history, its use of relatively detailed (and thus potentially more sensitive to a wide array of subtle
13 changes in climatic drivers) algorithms in simulations, and its broad applicability for simulating a
14 wide range of hydrologic and water quality attributes in diverse watershed settings. For example,
15 HSPF allows users to develop watershed models that represent an extensive mix of land uses and
16 watershed best management practices (BMPs). The model can then simulate the combined
17 effects on runoff resulting from changes in the amount, form, intensity, and seasonality of
18 precipitation, as well as the potential for changes in runoff to affect different water quality
19 endpoints. Finally, BASINS and the BASINS HSPF model have a long history of application to
20 assessing the impacts of changes in watershed land use and watershed management practices. In
21 combination with these existing capabilities, the climate assessment capabilities provided CAT
22 provide users with an ability to assess the combined impacts of climate change, land use change,
23 and management practices. In addition, this capability allows evaluation of the potential
24 effectiveness of different adaptation options for coping with the future impacts of climate
25 change. It should be noted, however, that BASINS CAT does not provide any additional
26 capabilities for simulating the effects of changes in land use and management. The only
27 capabilities in this area are those already available within BASINS.
28 The following is a list of features available within BASINS are available to support
29 comprehensive watershed assessments.
30 WinHSPF - a GUI for HSPF applications useful for implementing other management changes
31 (e.g. land use, point source, BMPs). To assess the combined impacts of management practices
32 and climate change, the specific management practices must first be reflected in a revised HSPF
33 UCI file. This UCI file may then be accessed by CAT to investigate the combined effects.
34 WDMUtil - a user interface for WDM files. This tool is particularly helpful in developing WDM
35 files to store both input and output time series for use by HSPF.
36 GenScn - a post-processing tool for comparing scenarios. GenScn contains a wide array of
37 output capabilities including data listing, graphical plots, and statistical analyses.
38 Since the release of BASINS 4.0 in 2007, it has been a long-term goal to simplify the system by
39 incorporating these tools into the BASINS user interface. With the latest BASINS 4 update in
40 the summer of 2008, most of the functionality found in WDMUtil and GenScn has been brought
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1 into BASINS. Work has begun on incorporating WinHSPF into BASINS also, but presently
2 WinHSPF still provides the most comprehensive interface to HSPF.
3 Along with these tools, BASINS and its documentation also provide a comprehensive resource
4 for calibration of the HSPF model. Users manuals, tutorial exercises, technical notes, and FAQs
5 relating to all aspects of watershed modeling may be found on the BASINS web site:
6 http://www.epa.gov/waterscience/BASINS/.
7
8 2.3 Climate Assessment Tool (CAT)
9 Water and watershed systems are influenced by the amount, form, seasonality, and event
10 characteristics of precipitation, as well as temperature, solar radiation and wind that affect
11 evaporative loss. Any change in climate may thus be reflected in key management targets such
12 as duration flow events (e.g., 7Q10), maximum water temperatures, or nutrient or materials loads
13 required to meet a TMDL or other water quality regulatory requirement.
14 The BASINS CAT essentially provides additional capabilities to BASINS users in 2 general
15 areas; a flexible preprocessing capability for creating meteorological time series reflecting any
16 user-determined change in temperature and precipitation for use as input to the HSPF model, and
17 a post-processing capability for calculating management targets (endpoints) useful to water and
18 watershed managers from model output.
19 BASINS CAT enables adjustments to historical records of only two meteorological data types,
20 precipitation and air temperature. The adjusted records are contained within the same BASINS
21 Watershed Data Management (WDM) file containing historical weather records. CAT provides
22 a view/export capability that (1) displays the changes resulting from a specific adjustment or (2)
23 saves the adjusted weather record as an ASCII file. It is important to note that CAT does not
24 provide actual data on climate change for any particular region of the U.S. Rather, CAT simply
25 provides a flexible capability for users to create meteorological data reflecting any type of
26 change they wish to consider.
27 Users can adjust historical data using standard arithmetic operators applied monthly, seasonally
28 or over any other increment of time. This flexibility allows adjustments to be made reflecting
29 long term seasonal climate change, as well as short-term, year-to-year changes such as changes
30 in the intensity of periodic drought. In addition, adjustments to a climate variable can also be
31 applied uniformly to all "events", or be selectively imposed only on those historical events that
32 exceed (or fall below) a specified threshold. Future climate change is expected to result in an
33 acceleration or 'intensification' of the hydrologic cycle, whereby a greater proportion of annual
34 precipitation occurs as larger magnitude events (Groisman et al., 2005; IPCC, 2007). A general
35 trend during the 20th century towards increasing precipitation intensity has already been shown
36 throughout the U.S. (Groisman et al., 2005). The ability to selectively adjust only events within
37 user-defined size classes allows climate change scenarios to be created reflecting these changes.
38 Finally, CAT also provides a capability for users to create time series that contain more frequent
39 precipitation events.
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2.0 Tools and Methods
1 The post-processing capability provided by CAT allows users to calculate hydrologic or water
2 quality endpoint metrics such as an x-year, y-duration high or low flow event, an annual water
3 yields, or an annual pollutant load. This capability provides a unique opportunity for water and
4 watershed managers to assess the impacts of climate change in terms of the metrics that are
5 traditionally used for understanding impacts and making decisions within their specific
6 professions or management domains (Johnson and Kittle, 2006). The user may select as
7 endpoints any HSPF state variable or flux that is being modeled and output as a result of the
8 model set up. If so desired, CAT enables users to further refine their analyses by considering
9 only time periods of concern. Details for such applications are provided in Section 2.3.2.
10 BASINS CAT capabilities are seamlessly integrated into the BASINS system through a series of
11 graphical user interfaces. Specifically, application of BASINS CAT requires the following:
12 A pre-existing, calibrated HSPF application
13 WDM file containing HSPF input meteorological time series
14 Output file(s) to which HSPF results are output (WDM and/or Binary)
15 For an HSPF application developed within BASINS, these elements will be created and saved in
16 the BASINS project associated with the application. For an HSPF application developed outside
17 of BASINS, input meteorological time series must come from a WDM file referenced by the
18 HSPF User Control Input (UCI) file. Similarly, output time series must be stored on either a
19 WDM or HSPF Binary output file for use by CAT. For either of these cases, CAT will first
20 reference the HSPF application's UCI file. The input meteorological time series and output
21 results reference by the UCI file will then be loaded into BASINS for use by CAT. A tutorial
22 demonstrating the setup of BASINS-CAT can be found in section 3.0.
23 Running an assessment using CAT requires defining one or more climate change scenarios and
24 selecting watershed endpoints. After initiating a CAT session, CAT creates the necessary input
25 files and manages all input and output from HSPF. In addition, CAT provides additional
26 capabilities for automating the creation and running of multiple climate change scenarios.
27 Section 2.3.3 provides guidance on the types of assessments that can be performed.
28 After running an assessment, a suite of tools for summarizing and visualizing results is available
29 both within the CAT interface as well as through standard BASINS plotting tools. Included
30 among these are options for exporting tabular data summaries, creating and exporting pivot
31 tables, and plotting time series. These tools are described in Section 2.3.4.
32
33 2.3.1 Tools For Developing Climate Change Scenarios
34
35 The following definitions apply throughout this report. Definitions of the terms projection,
36 prediction, and scenario are from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007).
37 The terms "scenario component" and "record adjustment" are defined with specific reference to
38 this report and the BASINS CAT tool.
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1 Projection. A projection is a potential future evolution of a quantity or set of quantities, often
2 computed with the aid of a model. Projections are distinguished from predictions in order to
3 emphasize that projections involve assumptions concerning, for example future socioeconomic
4 and technological developments that may or may not be realized, and therefore are subject to
5 substantial uncertainty (IPPC, 2007).
6 Prediction. A climate prediction (or forecast) is the result of an attempt to produce an estimate
7 of the actual evolution of the climate in the future, for example, at seasonal, interannual or long-
8 term time scales. Since the future evolution of the climate system may be highly sensitive to
9 initial conditions, such predictions are usually probabilistic in nature (IPPC, 2007).
10 Scenario. A scenario is a plausible and often simplified description of how the future may
11 develop, based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about driving forces
12 and key relationships. Scenarios may be derived from projections, but are often based on
13 additional information from other sources, sometimes combined with a narrative storyline (IPPC,
14 2007)
15 Scenario component. In the context of BASINS CAT, climate change scenarios are composed
16 of one or more specific types of change, or scenario components. For example, a single climate
17 change scenario could be defined to include increased precipitation during winter months,
18 decreased precipitation during summer months, and a uniform annual increase in air
19 temperatures. In the example above, the scenario is composed of 3 scenario components.
20 BASINS CAT allows users to create complex climate change scenarios by specifying multiple
21 scenario components (as arithmetic adjustments to baseline temperature and/or precipitation
22 records), and assembling scenarios from one or more scenario components as desired.
23 Record adjustment. The term record adjustment refers to a specific arithmetic or other
24 operation carried out on a temperature or precipitation record (time series) to reflect a specific
25 scenario component. For example, a scenario component calling for 20% increase in winter
26 precipitation can be represented by adjusting (here multiplying) each winter precipitation value
27 in the baseline precipitation record by 1.2.
28
29 Scenarios representative of a range of potential changes in future climate can be created using
30 the CAT interface by making one or more adjustments to a selected historical precipitation
31 and/or air temperature record. A range of changes can be applied to historical time series
32 reflecting different types of climate change (e.g. seasonal temperature changes, annual
33 precipitation totals, high intensity precipitation events), and specific changes can then be
34 assembled to create climate change scenarios for assessment. When climate change scenarios
35 include adjustments to air temperature, CAT automatically re-generates the evapotranspiration
36 record to reflect the specified changes in temperature. CAT can be used to create and run single
37 climate change scenarios. In addition, CAT can be used to automate the creation and running of
38 multiple "synthetic" scenarios within a specified range of values for selected change variables
39 (IPCC, 2007).
26
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2.0 Tools and Methods
1 The following sections describe different options for adjusting precipitation time series (Section
2 2.3.1.1), and air temperature time series (2.3.1.2). A discussion of combining individual
3 adjustments to time series to create a climate change scenario is provided in Section 2.3.1.3. The
4 discussion of climate scenario development concludes with additional information related to
5 using CAT to define synthetic scenarios in Section 2.3.1.4.
6 2.3.1.1 Modify Historical Precipitation Records
7
8 Future climate change may result in complex changes in precipitation including changes in
9 annual totals, seasonality, snowfall, the intensity of events, the length of dry spells, and other
10 specific types of change (IPCC, 2007). Different hydrologic and water quality endpoints are
11 more or less sensitive to specific types of precipitation changes. A complete understanding of the
12 impacts of climate change on water and watershed systems thus requires the ability to represent
13 and evaluate a variety of types and magnitudes of climate change.
14 BASINS CAT allows adjustments to be made to a historical precipitation record by one or more
15 of the five methods below:
16 1. Apply a constant multiplier to all values in a precipitation record (e.g. a daily or hourly
17 precipitation total); the assumption is that precipitation will change in a uniform way
18 throughout each year of the full record, either increasing or decreasing by a uniform
19 percent (multiplier).
20 2. Apply a constant multiplier only to values within a user-specified month or season of
21 each year of the full record; the assumption is that precipitation will change only during a
22 certain month or season of each year in the full record.
23 3. Apply a constant multiplier only to values within a user-specified range of years
24 contained within the full record; the assumption is that that precipitation will change only
25 during certain years within the full record, e.g. adjustment is made to a user-specified
26 period of 10 years within a 30-year historical record.
27 4. Add or remove precipitation events to a historical precipitation record to represent
28 changes in the frequency of events; the assumption is that changes in annual precipitation
29 totals occur due to changes in the frequency of precipitation events.
30 5. Apply a constant multiplier only to values within a user-specified event size class
31 (precipitation amount), e.g. change only those values that exceed or fall below a specified
32 event ranking such as the largest 10 percent of events; the assumption is that climate
33 change results in an intensification of the hydrologic cycle, whereby a larger proportion
34 of annual precipitation occurs as heavy precipitation events (Groisman et al., 2005).
35 Each of these five options for adjusting precipitation records is described below. For each
36 potential adjustment, an example is given of a question or analysis that might be addressed by
37 imposing the adjustment on the baseline historical precipitation record. Directly following the
38 analysis question, the specific CAT capability that has been implemented is described. The
27
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1 information provided in this section is limited to describing approaches and capabilities for
2 making adjustments to precipitation records. Chapter 3 provides a suite of tutorials that provide
3 the "how to" instructions for building and using modified historical precipitation records.
4 Chapter 4 provides a user's manual that details all user options.
5 2.3.1.1.1 Apply Multiplier to Full Record
6
7 Example of a relevant question/analysis: Evaluate the impact of a uniform 20 percent increase
8 in precipitation on watershed endpoints.
9 The simplest (and coarsest) method of modifying precipitation is to apply a multiplier to
10 historical values over the entire span of the model run. This method can be used in a stand-alone
11 manner, or as one component of a more complex scenario that includes additional adjustments.
12 As a stand alone-adjustment, application of a constant multiplier might be performed in
13 situations where previous studies do not make a convincing argument that precipitation changes
14 exhibit seasonality, variable changes from year to year, changes in storm frequency or
15 intensification of storms. As a component of a scenario that includes multiple adjustments, any
16 of the change types described above could be superimposed on a uniform increase or decrease of
17 historical precipitation. For example, one might apply half of an increase in precipitation
18 uniformly and impose the other half in only the largest storms.
19 2.3.1.1.2 Apply Seasonal Multiplier
20
21 Example of a relevant question/analysis: Evaluate the impact on watershed endpoints of a
22 uniform 20 percent seasonal increase in precipitation during the months of June, July and August
23 for each year of the record.
24 Climate change is expected to vary seasonally throughout the year in most regions of the U.S.
25 For example, greater increases in precipitation are anticipated during winter months in the
26 northeast U.S. than at other times of the year. A seasonal adjustment to a historical record is
27 achieved by specifying and applying a multiplier to only records within a specific, user defined
28 yearly time interval or 'season'. To define a season, CAT enables the selection of one month, or
29 any combination of months.
30 2.3.1.1.3 Modify Partial Record
31
32 Example of a relevant question/analysis: Evaluate the effect of climate change-induced
33 drought by decreasing by 20 percent all precipitation values occurring within the driest water
34 year contained within the record.
35 Climate change is expected to result in an increased severity of drought in many parts of the U.S.
36 This type of change can be represented in a climate change scenario by adjusting historical
37 precipitation values during specified, consecutive periods of time. For example, investigating
38 the impacts of increasing drought may include decreasing the precipitation total for an already
39 low-rainfall year. Using CAT a single multiplier can be applied to precipitation data during a
28
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2.0 Tools and Methods
1 specified portion of the historical precipitation record. The user may define the period that will
2 be adjusted in terms of either calendar years or water years (i.e., October to October).
3 23.1.1.4 Represent Storm Intensification
4 According to IPCC (2007), "It is likely that the frequency of heavy precipitation events (or
5 proportion of total rainfall from heavy falls) has increased over the past 50 years over most land
6 areas." CAT enables representation of this phenomenon at a watershed scale, either in a stand-
7 alone analysis, or as a component of a more complex climate scenario.
8 Example of relevant questions/analyses:
9 (1) Evaluate the impact on watershed endpoints of a 10 percent increase of annual precipitation
10 occurring only within the largest 20% (defined by total storm volume) of the storms present in
11 the historical precipitation record; (2) Evaluate the impact on watershed endpoints of a 10
12 percent decrease in precipitation occurring only in events within the historical record that are
13 among the lowest 90% defined by total storm volume.
14 Using CAT a constant multiplier can be applied only to specific rainfall events that exceed or fall
15 below a user-specified storm volume ranking (e.g., largest 10 percent or smallest 50 %). This
16 capability allows changes to be imposed only on selected events within user-defined size classes,
17 and can be used to represent the projected effects of intensification of the hydrologic cycle,
18 whereby an increased proportion of annual rainfall occurs during larger magnitude events.
19 Implementing this type of adjustment to a historical precipitation record requires specification of
20 a change in precipitation volume resulting from the intensification adjustment, and specification
21 of the particular storm events within which this volume is distributed. More specifically, the user
22 must:
23 1. Specify a percent change in water volume over the entire precipitation record (or for a
24 season within each year)
25 2. Specify which storm events are to be adjusted using the following criteria (note the
26 criteria below include options for specifying what an "event" is as well as for specifying
27 an event intensity threshold):
28 a. An event intensity threshold
29 b. The maximum allowable length of time (hours) that the intensity threshold is not
30 achieved before one event concludes and another begins,
31 c. The minimum volume that a storm event must have to be considered a candidate for
32 adjustment, and/or
33 d. The minimum duration that a storm event must have to be considered a candidate for
34 adjustment.
35 3. Further reduce the collection of storms that will be adjusted (as per #1 above) by
36 specifying the percentage of the total volume of the rainfall record that is to reside in the
37 storms that are included in the adjustment.
29
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1 Given this information, CAT then computes (1) the total volume of rainfall to be added/removed
2 from the selected storms, and based on this value (2) a multiplier that will be applied uniformly
3 to each selected rainfall event to distribute the desired change in precipitation volume.
4 A Synoptic Analysis Tool is also available within the BASINS system (BASINS 4.0) that can be
5 used characterize precipitation events. This application may be useful to BASINS CAT users to
6 define event size classes and other relevant information prior to specifying adjustments using
7 CAT. The Synoptic Analysis Tool can be applied directly, in a stand-alone manner, to any
8 weather record and provides a capability to sort or group storm events based on volume (max,
9 sum, mean, cumulative), event duration (max, sum, mean, standard deviation), event intensity
10 (max, mean, standard deviation), and the elapsed time since the last event (max, mean, variance)
11
12 2.3.1.1.5 Add or Remove Storm Events
13
14 Example of a relevant question/analysis: Evaluate the impact on watershed endpoints of
15 increasing precipitation volume by 10 percent (in terms of volume) by adding randomly timed
16 rainfall events with an average intensity greater than 0.1 inches per hour.
17 CAT enables users to represent changes in the frequency of precipitation events by randomly
18 selecting and duplicating with a historical time series (adding) an existing event, or randomly
19 selecting and removing an existing event from a historical record. More specifically,
20 implementing this type of adjustment to a historical precipitation record requires the following
21 steps:
22 1. Specify a percent change in water volume over the entire precipitation record (or for a
23 season within each year)
24 2. Specify which storm events will be either duplicated (to increase total precipitation
25 volume) or eliminated (to decrease total precipitation volume); storm events may be
26 defined in terms of any or all of the following attributes:
27 a. An event intensity threshold,
28 b. The maximum allowable length of time (hours) that the intensity threshold is not
29 achieved before one event concludes and another begins,
30 c. The minimum volume that a storm event must have to be considered a candidate for
31 adjustment, and/or
32 d. The minimum duration that a storm event must have to be considered a candidate for
33 adjustment.
34 3. Given this information, CAT randomly selects precipitation events for removal or
35 duplication elsewhere in the record until the specified change in precipitation volume is
36 reached.
37
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2.0 Tools and Methods
1 When duplicating storm events, the position in the time series (i.e. the day(s) on which a new
2 event is added) is determined randomly. Accordingly, it is possible for new events to overlap
3 existing events. In such cases the new precipitation is simply added to existing precipitation for
4 that time interval (e.g. day). CAT maintains an internal record to avoid duplicating the same
5 storm twice, unless all qualifying storms have been duplicated prior to meeting the specified
6 volume increase.
7 2.3.1.2 Modify Historical Air Temperature Records and Regenerate Evapotranspiration Record
8
9 Air temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere during the second half of the 20th century were
10 very likely higher than during any other 50-year period in the last 500 years, and likely the
11 highest in at least 1300 years (IPCC, 2007). The sensitivity of different hydrologic and water
12 quality endpoints to changes in temperature is likely to vary. A complete understanding of the
13 impacts of climate change on water and watershed systems thus requires the ability to represent
14 and evaluate a variety of types and magnitudes of changes in temperature.
15 The potential influence of warming temperatures on evapotranspiration and watershed
16 biogeochemical cycling are particularly pronounced. Evapotranspiration is a major factor in the
17 hydrological cycle and has a strong effect on watershed hydrologic response. It is extremely
18 important to note that whenever an adjustment is made to a historical air temperature record
19 using CAT, the potential evapotranspiration (PET) record used by HSPF must be re-generated to
20 reflect the new air temperature values. HSPF uses the Hamon (1961) method for estimating the
21 potential evapotranspiration based on air temperature. It is very simple to re-generate PET values
22 to reflect modified air temperatures when running a simulation through the CAT interface.
23 However, re-generation of PET is not an automatic function in CAT - it is the user's
24 responsibility to instruct CAT to perform the re-generation of PET.
25
26 Using CAT, changes can be imposed on a historical air temperature record by one or more of the
27 three methods below:
28 1. Apply an incremental or decremental value to all air temperature values in the historical
29 record; the assumption is that one component of the climate change is constant
30 throughout the year, either increasing or decreasing each air temperature event by a
31 specified value.
32 2. Apply an incremental or decremental value to all air temperature values within a user-
33 specified season each year of the full record; the assumption is that one component of the
34 climate change imposes a uniform increase or decrease in all air temperature values
35 within a season each year, but does not change the air temperature record for the rest of
36 each year.
37 3. Apply a constant to a user-specified period of the historical record; the assumption is that
38 one component of climate change is that year to year (or period to period) variability in
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1 air temperature will occur (i.e. some periods will remain consistent with historical
2 behavior, while others will not).
O
4 Each of these three options for adjusting air temperature records is described below. For each
5 potential adjustment, an example is given of a question or analysis that might be addressed by
6 imposing the adjustment on the baseline historical air temperature record. Directly following the
7 analysis question, the specific CAT capability that has been implemented is described. The
8 information provided in this section is limited to describing approaches and capabilities for
9 making adjustments to air temperature records. Chapter 3 provides a suite of tutorials that
10 provide the "how to" instructions for building and using modified historical air temperature
11 records. Chapter 4 provides a user's manual that details all user options.
12 2.3.1.2.1 Apply Increment or Decrement to Full Air Temperature Records and Regenerate
13 Evapotranspiration Record
14
15 Example of a relevant question/analysis: Evaluate the impact of a uniform 2 degree
16 Fahrenheit increase in air temperature on watershed endpoints; account for effects of temperature
17 change on potential evapotranspiration.
18 The simplest method of modifying air temperature is to add or subtract a constant value from all
19 historical values over the entire time interval of the model run. This adjustment can be
20 performed in a stand-alone manner, or as one component of a more complex scenario that
21 includes additional adjustments. As a stand alone-adjustment, application of a uniform
22 increment or decrement might be performed in situations where previous studies do not make a
23 convincing argument that air temperature changes exhibit seasonality or variable changes from
24 year to year. As a component of a scenario that includes multiple adjustments, either of the other
25 two change types described above could be superimposed on a uniform increase or decrease of
26 historical air temperature. For example, one might apply half of an increase in air temperature
27 uniformly and impose the other half in only the summer months.
28 2.3.1.2.2 Apply Seasonal Increment or Decrement to Air Temperature Records and Regenerate
29 Evapotranspiration Record
30
31 Example of a relevant question/analysis: Evaluate the impact on watershed endpoints of a
32 uniform 2 degrees Fahrenheit seasonal increase in air temperature during the cool months
33 (November through April) and a uniform 4 degrees Fahrenheit increase during the warm months
34 (May through October); account for effects of temperature change on potential
35 evapotranspiration.
36 As with precipitation, CAT enables the modification of temperature (and computed PET) values
37 for a specified portion of the year. With many climate models predicting larger temperature
38 increases (in total degrees) in warmer months than in cooler, this capability can be very useful in
39 representing varying patterns throughout the year.
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2.0 Tools and Methods
1 A seasonal adjustment to a historical record is achieved by specifying and adding or subtracting
2 a constant value to all air temperature values that occur within a user-defined 'season'
3 throughout the record. To define a season, CAT enables the selection of one month, or any
4 combination of months.
5 When making a seasonal adjustment to an air temperature record, it is the CAT user's
6 responsibility to instruct CAT to re-generate the potential evapotranspiration file that HSPF will
7 use for watershed simulation in parallel with the modified air temperature record.
8 2.3.1.2.3 Adjust Partial Record and Regenerate Evapotranspiration Record
9
10 Example of a relevant question/analysis: Evaluate the effect that a uniform increase of 3
11 degrees Fahrenheit has on drought conditions occurring within the driest water year contained
12 within the simulation period; account for effects of temperature change on potential
13 evapotranspiration.
14 Investigating the impacts of increasing drought severity may, for example, require increasing the
15 air temperature values and re-computing PET values for a single, specified year within a
16 historical record. Using CAT a uniform increment or decrement can be applied to air temperature
17 values during a specified portion of the historical air temperature record. The user may define
18 the period that will be adjusted in terms of either calendar years or water years (i.e., October to
19 September).
20 When making an adjustment to a portion of an air temperature record, it is the CAT user's
21 responsibility to instruct CAT to re-generate the potential evapotranspiration file that HSPF will
22 use for watershed simulation in parallel with the modified air temperature record.
23 2.3.1.3 Combine multiple adjustments to create a climate change scenario
24
25 Example of a relevant question/analysis: Evaluate the impact on watershed endpoints that
26 results from combining the following adjustments to the historical records:
27 1. 20 percent increase in summer (June through August) precipitation,
28 2. 2 degree Fahrenheit increase in air temperature during the 'cool' season (November
29 through April) and
30 3.4 degree Fahrenheit increase in air temperature during the 'warm' season (May through
31 October).
32
33 BASINS CAT provides a listing of all adjustments that the user has defined for precipitation and
34 air temperature records as one of its user interface screens. Each adjustment is preceded by a
35 'checkbox' that enables the user to indicate those adjustments that are to be included as
36 components for simulation of a particular scenario (or series of synthetic scenarios). The user
33
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1 may use the checkboxes to sequentially specify and simulate scenarios that combine various
2 combinations of previously defined adjustments.
3 23.1.4 Create Synthetic Climate Change Scenarios
4
5 The IPCC-TGIA suggests analyses using synthetic scenarios as a useful approach for
6 understanding environmental sensitivity to climate change (IPCC-TGIA, 2007). Synthetic
7 scenarios describe techniques where particular climatic attributes are changed by a realistic but
8 arbitrary amount, often according to a qualitative interpretation of climate model simulations,
9 historical variability, or other available information for a region. Application of this approach
10 involves picking a range of values and step interval for one or more climate variable(s), and then
11 creating and running scenarios based on each possible combination of arbitrarily assigned
12 changes.
13 Example of a relevant question/analysis: Evaluate the sensitivity of watershed endpoints to
14 changes in historical air temperature from 1 to 3 degrees F (at step interval of interval 1 degree F;
15 equals changes of+1, +2 and +3 degrees F) and historical precipitation from 10 to 30 percent (at
16 step interval of 10 percent; equals changes of 10, 20 and 30 percent); account for effects of
17 temperature change on potential evapotranspiration.
18 BASINS CAT provides an explicit capability for conducting analyses using synthetic scenarios.
19 CAT users can specify the type and range of climatic variability to be considered, and a step
20 interval within the range to be considered. CAT then iteratively creates and manages the
21 meteorological inputs, runs the watershed model (hydrology and water quality), manages model
22 output, and provides tabular summaries of the response of selected endpoints. Any adjustment
23 that can be performed using the single-run adjustment capabilities of CAT (i.e., those described
24 in Sections 2.3.1.1 through 2.3.1.2) can also be performed within a series of synthetic runs.
25 Hence, seasonal changes (via month specifications) repeated each year or changes to a specific
26 whole year can be made. Results from a series of model runs can be analysed by exporting model
27 output for use with any statistical or graphics package.
28 As stated previously, it is important to note that when synthetic scenarios include adjustments to
29 air temperatures, CAT user's must instruct CAT to re-generate the potential evapotranspiration
30 file used by HSPF in watershed simulations.
31 2.3.1.5 Exporting CAT Climate Change Scenarios as Text (ASCII) Files
32
33 BASINS CAT seamlessly links capabilities for modifying historical weather data to create
34 climate change scenarios with the HSPF watershed model within the BASINS system. It is
35 possible, however, that some users may wish to create climate change scenarios using BASINS
36 CAT for use with other models outside of the BASINS system. To provide this functionality,
37 BASINS CAT offers two options for exporting climate change scenarios as ASCII text files:
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2.0 Tools and Methods
1 1. In cases where a single adjustment is made to a precipitation or an air temperature record,
2 the resulting record can be exported as an ASCII file independent of running the HSPF
3 model.
4 2. In cases where multiple adjustments are made to a precipitation or an air temperature
5 record, it is necessary to complete a HSPF model run for one or more environmental
6 endpoints. After this has been accomplished, CAT enables the export of either or both of
7 the precipitation and air temperature records that resulted from the multiple adjustments
8 performed in defining the climate change scenario; again the export is performed in the
9 form of ASCII files.
10
11 2.3.2 Tools for Assessing Environmental Endpoints
12
13 The post-processing capability within BASINS CAT to calculate hydrologic and water quality
14 endpoints from model output time facilitates to the assessment of climate change impacts in
15 terms of metrics that are traditionally used for understanding impacts and making decisions
16 within their specific professions or management domains. For some investigations, simple
17 outputs from the HSPF model such as annual sediment or nutrient loads provide the most
18 effective metric. In other cases, a more relevant metric can be computed using standard model
19 output. A post-processing capability has been developed for CAT that calculates numerous
20 derived metrics such as x-year, y-duration high or low flow event. This post-processing
21 capability allows and greatly facilitates assessments to be conducted for key management targets
22 (Johnson and Kittle, 2006).
23 This section describes the range of endpoints that can be evaluated using CAT (Section 2.3.2.1)
24 and describes CAT's ability to refine the analysis and reporting of impacts on watershed
25 endpoints by specifying "value ranges of concern (Section 2.3.1.2)" and "time periods of concern
26 (Section 2.3.1.3)".
27 The information provided in this section is limited to describing approaches and capabilities for
28 making adjustments to precipitation records. Chapter 3 provides a suite of tutorials that provide
29 the "how to" instructions for specifying environmental endpoints. Chapter 4 provides a user's
30 manual that details all user options.
31 2.3.2.1 Endpoint Options
32
33 BASINS CAT users can specify endpoints to be calculated by selecting parameters (i.e. an
34 output HSPF time series) and attributes of parameters to be calculated (e.g. mean, min, max,
35 100-yr flood, 7Q10, etc.). The parameter options are determined by what is included in the
36 output from an HSPF simulation, or more specifically the time series specified as output in the
37 HSPF User Control Input file. Endpoint parameter options can be as simple as a few outputs to
38 WDM data sets in the External Targets block, or can be greatly expanded by using the binary
39 output file.
35
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1 Once a CAT application has been set up, the endpoint options are provided to the user in scroll
2 down menus on one or more screens. After selecting a parameter for calculating an endpoint, a
3 set of parameter attributes common to all time series in BASINS is available. Within the CAT
4 interface, the following parameter attributes are listed in a drop down menu:
5 Min
6 Max
7 Sum
8 Average annual sum of values
9 Mean
10 Geometric Mean
11 Variance
12 Standard Deviation
13 Standard Error of Skew
14 Serial Correlation Coefficient
15 Coefficient of Variation
16 7Q10
17 100 year flood
18
19 2.3.2.2 Specify Value Ranges of Concern
20
21 In many cases water and watershed managers may be interested in endpoint values relative to
22 some critical range or threshold value. Examples include a low flow threshold below which a
23 fish species is subject to harm, or numeric State water quality standards for chemical endpoints.
24 BASINS CAT provides a capability to visually flag endpoint values of concern within the
25 Results table tab (Section 2.3.4.1). Users have the ability to flag endpoint values using one of
26 two different schemes; a 'low range-favorable range-high range' color scheme, or a 'favorable
27 range-outside of favorable range' color scheme. The first shading scheme corresponds to the
28 default setting for shading, which is blue for cells with values falling below the favorable range,
29 no shading for cells with values falling within the favorable range, and red for cells with values
30 greater than the favorable range. The threshold/range that will be indicated as favorable is
31 determined by the user.
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2.0 Tools and Methods
1 2.3.2.3 Specify Time Periods of Concern (Seasonal and/or Partial Records)
2
3 Water and watershed managers may also be interested in endpoint values during only a particular
4 season of each year or during a specific year (or water year) within the record. BASINS CAT
5 provides an option to show in the Results table only those endpoint values falling within the
6 period of concern. The time period of concern is determined by the user.
7 2.3.3 Running a HSPF Simulation Using BASINS CAT
8
9 Watershed simulations using HSPF can managed from within the BASINS CAT interface after
10 creating and selecting the climate change scenarios to be considered (Section 2.3.1), and
11 specifying the endpoints to be calculated (Section 2.3.2). Subsequent to running an assessment,
12 CAT users may choose to either export simulation results for analysis or visualization using
13 external software (e.g., MS Excel), or use existing tools within the BASINS system to create
14 expanded summaries and visualization. The following section describes additional tools within
15 BASINS for displaying and analyzing the results of HSPF simulations that may be useful to
16 CAT users. All HSPF simulation results generated using CAT may also be exported as ASCII
17 text files for use with other analysis and visualization software.
18 2.3.4 Tools for Summarizing and Visualizing Results
19
20 The information provided in this section is limited to describing approaches and capabilities for
21 summarizing and visualizing results. Chapter 3 provides a suite of tutorials that provide the
22 "how to" for displaying results. Chapter 4 provides a user's manual that details all user options.
23 2.3.4.1 Results Tables
24
25 Results tables are the most straightforward method available for reporting the results of HSPF
26 simulations conducted with the CAT, including calculated endpoint values. The Results table
27 contains values for each endpoint selected by the user (i.e. for each attribute (e.g. mean, min) of
28 each HSPF output parameter (e.g, streamflow, sediment load) selected as an endpoint). The
29 process for generating a results table is explained in a tutorial in Section 3.4.3.
30 2.3.4.2 Pivot Tables
31
32 In addition to reporting results in the Results table, BASINS CAT also provides a capability for
33 visualizing and analyzing results of HSPF simulations using a pivot table. A pivot table is a
34 powerful data visualization and analysis tool available in several commercial spreadsheet
35 software programs (e.g., Microsoft Excel, OpenOffice.org). A pivot table can be used to quickly
36 and easily assess relationships among multiple variables. The user sets up and changes the
37 appearance of a pivot table by selecting a variable of concern and variables to use as x and y axes
37
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1 of the pivot table. Values of the variable of concern at each x,y coordinate location are then
2 shown as a function of the x and y coordinate variables. A pivot table is similar in concept to a
3 contour plot (x and y axis are the same), but expresses its information in the form of tabular
4 numbers rather than graphical contour lines. The process for generating pivot tables is explained
5 in Section 3.4.2.
6 2.3.4.4 Additional BASINS Tools
7
8 The time series results for HSPF simulations performed in conjunction with CAT may be
9 displayed or further analyzed by using any of the following BASINS capabilities:
10 Graph a time series or multiple time series
11 Display attributes and calculated statistics in the form of a data tree (a method of displaying
12 attributes and data in logical groups that can be collapsed or expanded with the "+" and "-"
13 boxes built into the tree).
14
15 Compute frequency statistics such for specified n-day values and recurrence intervals
16 Calculate and display statistics for user-defined "seasons"
17 Generate one time series from one or multiple other time series, such as performing unit
18 conversions or mathematical operations (e.g. adding a number of time series)
19 Create a separate time series consisting of each event exceeding a threshold, such as each
20 storm event with hourly precipitation exceeding 2.0 inches
21
22 2.3.5 Using Scripts to Automate CAT Applications
23
24 Both BASINS and Map Window, the GIS framework upon which BASINS is built, are open-
25 source software products. This means that both programs and their source code may be
26 downloaded free of charge without any run-time licenses required. The software architecture of
27 the programs has been designed to readily allow end users to extend the programs. One way that
28 this may be done is through the use of scripts. Map Window and BASINS have both been
29 developed in the .Net framework, meaning any script developed in a .Net language may be run
30 from BASINS. Scripts provide an efficient and reproducible method for performing repetitive
31 tasks. Scripts can be used to perform all facets of CAT analysis. A sample script and
32 demonstration of how scripts are run is found in Section 3.5.
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3.0 Tutorials
i 3.0 Tutorials
2
3 These Climate Assessment Tool (CAT) tutorials are designed to demonstrate a range of the
4 tool's features, from simple to complex. For this reason the tutorials are divided into a series of
5 small sessions that exhibit specific features. There is an overarching flow to the tutorials from
6 beginning to end of typical CAT usage and the tutorials are organized in chronological
7 groupings. Each tutorial provides the context of where that session's features fit into the CAT
8 application process.
9 NOTE: The data shown in the tutorials is for demonstration purpose only and does not
10 represent calibrated model results.
11 The tutorials are also organized in a parallel structure to Chapter 2, Tools and Methods. Where
12 chapter 2 provides a theoretical description of CAT features and why they were developed, the
13 tutorials provide detailed instruction on how to use the features. Thus, for example, each
14 precipitation modification feature described in Sections 2.3.1.1.1 through 2.3.1.1.5 has a
15 corresponding tutorial (Sections 3.1.1 through 3.1.5) with a sample application of the feature.
16 The overall organization of the tutorials is as follows:
17 1. BASINS-CAT Set-up
18 2. Developing Climate Change Scenarios
19 3. Specifying Environmental Endpoints
20 4. Running a CAT Assessment
21 5. Summarizing and Visualizing Results
22
23 NOTE: The BASINS-CAT Set-up tutorial at the end of this section must be run before any
24 of the other tutorials.
25 With the exception of the BASINS-CAT Set-up tutorial, there is a great deal of flexibility in how
26 the tutorials may be run. The sections listed above contain multiple tutorial sessions that
27 demonstrate various capabilities. It is not necessary to run every tutorial session although later
28 sessions under Running an Assessment and Summarizing and Visualizing Results may reference
29 climate change scenarios and environmental (hydrologic and water quality) endpoints developed
30 in earlier sessions. To make this clear to the user, each tutorial will list any tutorials that must be
31 run prior to it.
32 BASINS-CAT Setup
39
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1 This session illustrates how to reference CAT from within BASINS and the initial steps required
2 to begin climate change assessment. The steps in this session must be performed a single time
3 prior to running any other tutorials.
4 Before beginning this session, it is necessary to review the elements required for using CAT:
5 A calibrated HSPF application
6 WDM file containing HSPF input meteorological time series
7 Output file(s) to which HSPF is outputting results (WDM or Binary)
8 Data used in the tutorials are taken from the sample files provided with the BASINS installation
9 package. These files are found in the \BASINS\data\Climate folder. The BASINS system is
10 mostly comprised of various software plug-ins, of which CAT is one. The first step in setting up
11 CAT to run in BASINS is to be sure it is loaded as a plug-in. Select Climate Assessment Tool
12 from the Plug-ins:Analysis submenu so that it has a check next to it. This will add Climate
13 Assessment Tool to the Analysis menu.
BASINS 4 - 02060006
File Compute
IQ
Legend
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Watershec
0 Stream Re
Hydrology
D NHD 0206
D Reach File
D Cataloging
D Accountini
0 Cataloging
B0 Elevation
H3E DEMEIev
0 - 1 31
Q131 -262
H No Data
Preview Map
Analysis Models Edit View Plug-ins Watershed Delineation Shapefile Editor GIS Tools Help
ArcView 3
ArcGIS
GenScn
WDMUtil
Climate Assessment Tool
|X: 349.797 Y: 4285.654 Kilometers
Data Tree
Frequency Grid
Graph
List
Seasonal Attributes
Watershed Characterization Reports
Reclassify Land Use
Projection Parameters
STORET Agency Codes
Standard Industrial Classification Codes
Water Quality Criteria 304a
40
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3.0 Tutorials
1
2
1. Select the AnalysisrClimate Assessment Tool menu option, and the following form will
appear.
File Edit Options Help
Climate Data j Assessment Endpoints j Results Table j Pivot Table ]
Base Scenario j
New Scenario JModified
Add Remove Edit View Prepared
5
6
7
Before beginning the process of generating and analyzing climate change scenarios, a
starting scenario must be specified upon which new scenarios will be based. To do this,
click in the Base Scenario box and select the file \BASINS\data\Climate\base.uci. When
this UCI file is selected, the input meteorological and output data files specified in the
UCI file will be loaded into the BASINS project and made available for use in CAT.
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Leave the New Scenario name as 'Modified'.
Climate Assessment Tool
File Edit Options Help
Climate Data Assessment Endpoints 1 Results Table 1 Pivot Table 1
Base Scenario |C:\BASINS\Data\Climate\base.uci
NewScenario [Modified
Remove
Add
Start
3 3. It is advisable to save the state of the Climate Assessment Tool as tutorial exercises are
4 completed. This will allow later tutorials, which depend on results from earlier tutorials,
5 to be run without re-running the earlier tutorials. To perform this save, select the
6 FilerSave Climate and Endpoints menu option. A file dialogue window will prompt
7 you for the name of a file in which the state of CAT will be saved. This saved state may
8 then be retrieved at a later time using the FilerLoad Climate and Endpoints menu
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3.0 Tutorials
option.
Save Variations as XML Text
Savejn:
Climate
tCAT-Tutorial,
d
File name:
Save as type:
CAT-Tutorial.xml
Save
XML files r.x
Cancel
3 4. At this point the generation and assessment of climate change scenarios may be
4 performed. The remaining tutorial sections contain exercises showing how to generate
5 new climate change scenarios, specify environmental endpoints, run an assessment, and
6 summarize and visualize results.
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i 3.1 Tools For Developing Climate Change Scenarios
2
3 BASINS CAT provides a flexible capability to modify historical meteorological time series to
4 create climate change scenarios for use with the HSPF watershed model. As described in Chapter
5 2, a variety of modifications, or adjustments, may be applied to precipitation and temperature
6 timeseries, along with a necessary capability to regenerate potential evapotranspiration (PET)
7 when adjustments are made to air temperature.
8 The tutorials in this section illustrate the major types of adjustment that can be made to historical
9 meteorological data to create climate change scenarios, including methods for modifying
10 precipitation (3.1.1), modifying temperature/regenerating PET (3.1.2), and creating synthetic
11 climate change scenarios (3.1.4). Within these sub-sections a number of tutorials demonstrate
12 the specific methods by which these data may be modified.
13 3.1.1 Modify Historical Precipitation Records
14
15 The tutorials in this section demonstrate the following precipitation modifications:
16 Applying a multiplier to the entire record.
17 Applying a seasonal multiplier.
18 Applying a multiplier to a portion of the record.
19 Representing Storm Intensification.
20 Adding or Removing Storm Events.
21 These tutorials all assume that the BASINS-CAT Set-up tutorial, in Section 3.0, has already been
22 run.
23 3.1.1.1 Apply Multiplier to Full Record
24
25 To begin this tutorial, the Climate Assessment Tool form should be displayed with the
26 "\Basins\Data\Climate\base.uci" file as the Base Scenario, "Modified" as the New Scenario,
27 and the "\Basins\Data\Climate\base.wdm" file (not shown in the image below) added to the
28 BASINS project. These specifications are performed in the BASINS-CAT Setup tutorial in
44
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Section 3.0, which must be run prior to this tutorial.
Climate Assessment Tool
File Edit Options Help
Climate Data Assessment Endpoints 1 Results Table 1 Pivot Table 1
Base Scenario |C:\BASINS\Data\Climate\base.uci
NewScenario [Modified
Add I Remove I Edit View Prepared
Start
3 The simplest method of modifying precipitation is to apply a multiplier to historical values over
4 the entire span of the model run. For background on how this feature may be used to represent
5 climate change scenarios, see Section 2.3.1.1.1.
6 This tutorial will show how a single multiplier may be applied to an entire historical precipitation
7 data record. The final result of the tutorial will be a climate adjustment that applies a multiplier
8 to historical precipitation data for use as model input.
9 1. To begin creating a new climate adjustment, click the Add button and the Modify
10 Existing Data form will be displayed. This form contains the controls needed to define a
11 climate adjustment, including an identification label, the dataset(s) to be modified, and
12 how the data are to be modified. The Modification Name field is used to provide a text
13 label for identifying the scenario being created. Begin defining this scenario by entering
45
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'Increase Precip' in the Modification Name field.
Modify Existing Data
Modification Name: [increase Precip
Existing Data to Modify: \
Compute PET:
How to Modify:
View
|
View
[Multiply Existing Values by a Number _^J
Number to multiply existing data by
(* Single Change f Iterate Changes
Value 1.1 multiplication factor
Events
l~~ Vary precipitation only in the following Events
Seasons -
f" Vary only in selected
Cancel
3 2. To select the precipitation data to modify, click in the Existing Data to Modify box and
4 the Select data to vary form will be displayed. In the top third of this window, titled
5 Select Attribute Values to Filter Available Data, you can filter the type of data to
6 select by Scenario, Location, or Constituent. The data matching your selections will
7 appear in the middle third of the window, titled Matching Data. To further filter the
8 data, select one or more data sets from the Matching Data list, which will show up in the
9 lower third of the window under Selected Data. If you would like to select all of the
10 Matching Data, leave the Selected Data area blank. Click on individual data sets to
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remove them from Selected Data.
Select data to vary
File Attributes Select Help
Select Attribute Values to Filter Available Data
OBSERVED
PT-OBS
SCEN
base
Matching Data (2215 of 2215)
base
_^J [location
015S4526
BELTSVIL
1:101
_^J [Constituent
_±l AGWET
LAUREL
P:101
AGWI
AGWO
AGWS
AIRT
base
base
base
base
base
base
base
P:101
GAGE
P:101
P:101
P:101
SEGMENT
PERS
CEPS
P:101
P:101
P:101
P:101
SURS
UZS
IFWS
LZS
Selected Data
Ok
Cancel
3 3. Begin the selection process by looking at the first column, labeled Scenario, in the Select
4 Attribute Values to Filter Available Data frame Click on the OBSERVED item and
5 all data sets with a Scenario attribute of OBSERVED will be added to the Matching
6 Data list. In looking at the last column of the Matching Data list, note that there are two
7 data sets with the Constituent name HPRECIP (hourly precipitation). The HSPF model
8 used in this example is only using precipitation from the Upper Marlboro gage, so click
9 on the data set with UPMARLBR and HPRECIP as the respective Location and
10 Constituent. (Note: It is possible for more than one data set to be selected for use in
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1
2
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
defining a climate scenario.) When this data set has moved to the Selected Data list,
click the Ok button.
Select data to vary
File Attributes Select Help
Select Attribute Values to Filter Available Data
Matching Data (27 of 2215)
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
Selected Data (1 of 2215)
OBSERVED
015S4526
LAUREL
UPMARLBR
BELTSVIL
BELTSVIL
WASH_NAT
WASH_NAT
WASH NAT
UPMARLBR
T| | Constituent
_d AGWET
J AGWI
AGWO
AGWS
AIRT
.^^J A inTi jn
FLOW
HPRECIP
HPRECIP
PET
AIRTMP
CLOUD
WIND
DEWPT
HPRECIP
Ok
Cancel
4. The Modify Existing Data form has now been updated with a description of the selected
data set in the Existing Data to Modify box. The Compute PET box is for selecting the
evapotranspiration dataset to modify when a temperature climate scenario is being
defined and may be ignored for this example. The How to Modify box contains a list of
methods for modifying the data-set values. For this example, the "Modify Existing
Values by a Number" option will be used. In the Number to multiply existing data by
frame, there are two modification options: Single Change or Iterate Changes. The
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1
2
3
4
5
6
7
term 'iterate' as used here refers to the automation of multiple runs. The Single Change
option will result in one adjustment applied to the precipitation data set. The Iterate
Changes option will result in a series of adjustments to the precipitation data set and is
used to create "synthetic" climate change scenarios as described in Section 2.3.1.4. Use
of this option is shown in the Tutorial found in Section 3.1.4 Create Synthetic Climate
Change Scenarios. For this example, we will use the Single Change option. Enter ' 1.2'
in the Value field, thus defining the value by which all values in the precipitation data set
will be multiplied. Click the Ok button to complete the scenario definition process.
Modify Existing Data
Modification Name: [increase Precip
Existing Data to Modify: (OBSERVED UPMARLBR HPRECIP tt 105
Compute PET:
How to Modify:
|
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External Review Draft - Please Do Not Cite
1
2
5. The Climate Assessment Tool form is now updated to show the newly defined climate
scenario.
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
File Edit Options Help
Assessment Endpoints Results Table Pivot Table
Base Scenario C:\BASINS\Data\Climate\base.uci
N ew S cenario [Modified
0 Increase Precip Multiply 1.2
Start I Total iterations selected = 1 (0:08)
To view a listing of the modified precipitation data set, click on the newly created climate
adjustment to highlight it and then click the View button. The Time series List window
displays a listing of the values in the modified dataset. To view the modified data next to
the original, select the File: Select Data menu option and the Select Data window will be
displayed. Like earlier in this session, click the OBSERVED item from the Scenario list
and then click the OBSERVED, UPMARLBR, HPRECIP data set from the Matching
Data list. It will be added to the Selected Data list along with the modified precipitation
data set that is already in the Time series List window. Click Ok and the two data sets'
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values will be displayed.
4
5
6
7
9
10
Timeseries Li
File Edit View
History 1
Max
Mean
Min
1955/12/31 09:00
1955/12/31 10:00
1955/12/31 11:00
1955/12/31 12:00
1955/12/31 13:00
1955/12/31 14:00
1955/12/31 15:00
1955/12/31 16:00
1955/12/31 17:00
1955/12/31 13:00
1955/12/31 19:00
1955/12/31 20:00
1955/12/31 21:00
1955/12/31 22:00
1955/12/31 23:00
1955/12/31 24:00
1956/01/01 01:00
1956/01/01 02:00
1956/01/01 03:00
1956/01/01 04:00
1956/01/01 05:00
1956/01/01 06:00
st
Analysis Help
from base.wdm
3.072
0.0057794
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
from base.wdm
2.56
0.0048162
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
^^^- 5
by
4
d
7. To complete this session, close the data listing and save the state of CAT, using the
FilerSave Climate and Endpoints menu option, if desired.
3.1.1.2 Apply Seasonal Multiplier
To begin this tutorial, the Climate Assessment Tool form should be displayed with the
"\Basins\Data\Climate\base.uci" file as the Base Scenario, "Modified" as the New Scenario,
and the "\Basins\Data\Climate\base.wdm" file added to the BASINS project. These
51
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1 specifications are performed in the BASINS-CAT Setup tutorial in Section 3.0, which must be
2 run pri or to thi s tutori al.
3 A common climate scenario need is to adjust historical values during a particular portion of the
4 year over the entire span of the model run. For background on how this feature may be used to
5 represent climate change scenarios, see Section 2.3.1.1.2.
6 This tutorial will show how a single multiplier may be applied to precipitation data during a
7 specific portion of the year. The final result of the tutorial will be a climate scenario that applies
8 a multiplier to historical precipitation data during summer months for use as model input.
9 1. To begin creating a new climate scenario, click the Add button and the Modify Existing
10 Data form will be displayed. This form contains the controls needed to define a climate
11 adjustment, including an identification label, the dataset(s) to be modified, and how the
12 data are to be modified. The Modification Name field is used to provide a text label for
13 identifying the scenario being created. Begin defining this scenario by entering 'Seasonal
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Precip' in the Modification Name field.
Modify Existing Data
Modification Name: [Seasonal Precip
Existing Data to Modify: \
Compute PET:
How to Modify:
View
|
View
[Multiply Existing Values by a Number _^J
Number to multiply existing data by
(* Single Change f Iterate Changes
Value 1.1 multiplication factor
Events
l~~ Vary precipitation only in the following Events
Seasons -
f" Vary only in selected
Cancel
3 2. To select the precipitation data to modify, click in the Existing Data to Modify box and
4 the Select data to vary form will be displayed. A detailed description of this form is
5 found in steps 2 and 3 of the tutorial in Section 3.1.1.1. In the first column, under the
6 Scenario label, click on the OBSERVED item. In looking at the Matching Data list,
7 note that there are two data sets with the Constituent name HPRECIP (hourly
8 precipitation). The HSPF model used in this example is only applying precipitation from
9 the Upper Marlboro gage, so click on the data set with UPMARLBR and HPRECIP as
10 the respective Location and Constituent. (Note: It is possible for more than one data set
53
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External Review Draft - Please Do Not Cite
1
2
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
to be selected for use in defining a climate scenario.) When this data set has moved to
the Selected Data list, click the Ok button.
Select data to vary
File Attributes Select Help
Select Attribute Values to Filter Available Data
Matching Data (27 of 2215)
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
Selected Data (1 of 2215)
OBSERVED
015S4526
LAUREL
UPMARLBR
BELTSVIL
BELTSVIL
WASH_NAT
WASH_NAT
WASH NAT
UPMARLBR
T| | Constituent
_d AGWET
J AGWI
AGWO
AGWS
AIRT
.^^J A inTi jn
FLOW
HPRECIP
HPRECIP
PET
AIRTMP
CLOUD
WIND
DEWPT
HPRECIP
Ok
Cancel
3. The Modify Existing Data form has now been updated with a description of the selected
data set in the Existing Data to Modify box. The Compute PET box is for selecting the
evapotranspiration dataset to modify when a temperature climate scenario is being
defined and may be ignored for this example. The How to Modify box contains a list of
methods for modifying the data-set values. For this example, the "Modify Existing
Values by a Number" option will be used. A detailed description of the Number to
multiply existing data by frame is found in the tutorial in Section 3.1.1.1. For this
54
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1
2
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
example, we will use the Single Change option. Enter '1.2' in the Value field, thus
defining the value by which all values in the precipitation data set will be multiplied.
Modify Existing Data
Modification Name: [Seasonal Precip
E Kisting D ata to M odify: [OBSERVED UPMARLBR HPRECIP81Q5
Compute PET:
How to Modify:
View
Kclick to specify PET to replace>
View
[Multiply Existing Values by a Number _^
Number to multiply existing data by
(* Single Change (~ Iterate Changes
Value |1.2 multiplication factor
-Events
|~~ Vary precipitation only in the following Events
Seasons
|~~ Vary only in selected
Ok
Cancel
4. The Seasons frame near the bottom of the form is used for specifying a time subset of the
data set to which the modification will be applied. Begin defining this subset by clicking
on the Vary only in selected check box and two additional fields will be displayed. The
first field is a list of time subset options that includes Calendar Years, Months, and
Water Years. The second field will display a list of available time intervals based on the
item selected in the first field. For example, selecting Water Years from the first field
will populate the second field with a list of available water years based on the period of
55
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1
2
3
4
5
record of the data set. For this example, select the Months option and the second field
will be populated with the months of the year. Items in the second field may be selected
and deselected by clicking on them. Additionally, the buttons below the list may be used
to select All or None of the items. To represent increased precipitation during summer
months, select Jun, Jul, and Aug.
Modify Existing Data
Modification Name: [Seasonal Precip
E xisting D ata to M odify: (OBSERVED UPMARLBR HPRECIPS105
Compute PET:
How to Modify:
View
|
View
[Multiply Existing Values by a Number ^
Number to multiply existing data by
(* Single Change f Iterate Changes
Value 1.2 multiplication factor
Events
f~ Vary precipitation only in the following Events
Seasons
56
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1
2
4
5
6
7
5. Click the Ok button to complete the scenario definition process. The Climate
Assessment Tool form is now updated to show the newly defined climate scenario.
Climate Assessment Tool 01*1EJ
File Edit Options Help
Climate Data
Assessment Endpoints Results Table Pivot Table
Base Scenario |C:\BASINS\Data\Climate\base.uci
New Scenario [Modified
Add
Remove
Edit
View
Prepared
0 Increase Precip Multiply 1.2
0 Seasonal Precip Multiply 1.2 Month: Jun Jul Aug
Start | Total iterations selected = 1 (0:08)
To complete this session, save the state of CAT, using the File: Save Climate and
Endpoints menu option, if desired.
3.1.1.3 Modify Partial Record
9 To begin this tutorial, the Climate Assessment Tool form should be displayed with the
10 "\Basins\Data\Climate\base.uci" file as the Base Scenario, "Modified" as the New Scenario,
11 and the "\Basins\Data\Climate\base.wdm" file added to the BASINS project. These
12 specifications are performed in the BASINS-CAT Setup tutorial in Section 3.0, which must be
13 run pri or to thi s tutori al.
14 A common climate scenario need is to adjust historical values during a particular portion of the
15 model run. For example, investigating the impacts of drought may include decreasing the
16 precipitation total for an already low-rainfall year. For background on how this feature may be
17 used to represent climate change scenarios, see Section 2.3.1.1.3.
57
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External Review Draft - Please Do Not Cite
1
2
4
5
6
7
This tutorial will show how a single multiplier may be applied to precipitation data during a
specific portion of the model run. The final result of the tutorial will be a climate adjustment that
applies a multiplier to historical precipitation data during one year of a model run.
1. To begin creating a new climate scenario, click the Add button and the Modify Existing
Data form will be displayed. This form contains the controls needed to define a climate
adjustment, including an identification label, the dataset(s) to be modified, and how the
data are to be modified. The Modification Name field is used to provide a text label for
identifying the scenario being created. Begin defining this scenario by entering 'Partial
Precip' in the Modification Name field.
Modify Existing Data
Modification Name:
Existing Data to Modify: \
View
Multiply Existing Values by a Number _^j
Number to multiply existing data by
(* Single Change (~ Iterate Changes
Value 1.1 multiplication factor
-Events
|~~ Vary precipitation only in the following Events
Seasons
l~~ Vary only in selected
Ok
Cancel
10
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3.0 Tutorials
1 2. To select the precipitation data to modify, click in the Existing Data to Modify box and
2 the Select data to vary form will be displayed. A detailed description of this form is
3 found in steps 2 and 3 of the tutorial in Section 3.1.1.1. In the first column, under the
4 Scenario label, click on the OBSERVED item . In looking at the Matching Data list,
5 note that there are two data sets with the Constituent name HPRECIP (hourly
6 precipitation). The HSPF model used in this example is only applying precipitation from
7 the Upper Marlboro gage, so click on the data set with UPMARLBR and HPRECIP as
8 the respective Location and Constituent. (Note: It is possible for more than one data set
9 to be selected for use in defining a climate scenario.) When this data set has moved to
59
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the Selected Data list, click the Ok button.
Select data to vary
File Attributes Select Help
Select Attribute Values to Filter Available Data
FT-DBS
SCEN
base
Matching Data (27 of 2215)
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
Selected Data (1 of 2215)
OBSERVED
^J [location
015S4526
BELTSVIL
1:101
LAUREL
P:101
01534526
LAUREL
UPMARLBR
BELTSVIL
BELTSVIL
WASH_NAT
WASH_NAT
WASH NAT
UPMARLBR
_^J [Constituent
_±l AGWET
AGWI
AGWO
AGWS
AIRT
HPRECIP
HPRECIP
PET
HPRECIP
T
T
T
AIRTMP
CLOUD
WIND
DEWPT
Ok
Cancel
3 3. The Modify Existing Data form has now been updated with a description of the selected
4 data set in the Existing Data to Modify box. The Compute PET box is for selecting the
5 evapotranspiration dataset to modify when a temperature climate scenario is being
6 defined and may be ignored for this example. The How to Modify box contains a list of
7 methods for modifying the data-set values. For this example, the "Modify Existing
8 Values by a Number" option will be used. A detailed description of the Number to
9 multiply existing data by frame is found in the tutorial in Section 3.1.1.1. For this
10 example, we will use the Single Change option. Enter '0.8' in the Value field, thus
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3.0 Tutorials
1
2
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
defining the value by which the precipitation values will be multiplied during the year
specified in the next step.
Modify Existing Data
Modification Name:
Partial Precip
E Kisting D ata to M odify: [OBSERVED UPMARLBR HPRECIP81Q5
Compute PET:
How to Modify:
View
Kclick to specify PET to replace>
View
[Multiply Existing Values by a Number _^
Number to multiply existing data by
(* Single Change (~ Iterate Changes
Value
[OS
multiplication factor
-Events
|~~ Vary precipitation only in the following Events
Seasons
|~~ Vary only in selected
Ok
Cancel
4. The Seasons frame near the bottom of the form is used for specifying a time subset of the
data set to which the modification will be applied. Begin defining this subset by clicking
on the Vary only in selected check box and two additional fields will be displayed. The
first field is a list of time subset options that includes Calendar Years, Months, and
Water Years. The second field will display a list of available time intervals based on the
item selected in the first field. For example, selecting Water Years from the first field
will populate the second field with a list of available water years based on the period of
61
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External Review Draft - Please Do Not Cite
1
2
3
4
5
record of the data set. Items in the second field may be selected and deselected by
clicking on them. Additionally, the buttons below the list may be used to select All or
None of the items. The sample HSPF run used here is run for water years 1986 through
1988, with 1986 being the driest. Thus, to help assess the impact of drought, select the
Water Years option and then select 1986 from the list of available water years.
Modify Existing Data
Modification Name:
Partial Precip
E xisting D ata to M odify: (OBSERVED UPMARLBR HPRECIPH105
Compute PET:
How to Modify:
View
|
View
I Multiply Existing Values by a Number _^
Number to multiply existing data by
(* Single Change f* Iterate Changes
Value
fas
multiplication factor
Events
f~ Vary precipitation only in the following Events
Seasons
Vary only in selected Water Years
1976
1977
1978
1979
1984
1985
1988
1989
|1990
1991
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1
2
4
5
6
7
5. Click the Ok button to complete the scenario definition process. The Climate
Assessment Tool form is now updated to show the newly defined climate scenario.
Climate Assessment Tool 01*1EJ
File Edit Options Help
Climate Data
Assessment Endpoints Results Table Pivot Table
Base Scenario |C:\BASINS\Data\Climate\base.uci
New Scenario [Modified
Add
Remove
Edit
View
Prepared
0 Increase Precip Multiply 1.2
0 Seasonal Precip Multiply 1.2 Month: Jun Jul Aug
0 Partial Precip Multiply 0.8 Water Year: 1986
Start | Total iterations selected = 1 (0:08)
To complete this session, save the state of CAT, using the File: Save Climate and
Endpoints menu option, if desired.
3.1.1.4 Represent Storm Intensification
9 To begin this tutorial, the Climate Assessment Tool form should be displayed with the
10 "\Basins\Data\Climate\base.uci" file as the Base Scenario, "Modified" as the New Scenario,
11 and the "\Basins\Data\Climate\base.wdm" file added to the BASINS project. These
12 specifications are performed in the BASINS-CAT Setup tutorial in Section 3.0, which must be
13 run pri or to thi s tutori al.
14 CAT has the ability to represent storm intensification by increasing storm volumes by a specified
15 percent for a selected portion of the highest percentage storms. For background on how this
16 feature may be used to represent climate change scenarios, see Section 2.3.1.1.4.
17 This tutorial will show how to make specifications to represent storm intensification. The final
18 result of the tutorial will be a climate scenario that applies an increase to storm volumes in a
19 specified percentage of storm events.
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1
2
3
4
5
1. To begin creating a new climate scenario, click the Add button and the Modify Existing
Data form will be displayed. This form contains the controls needed to define a climate
adjustment, including an identification label, the dataset(s) to be modified, and how the
data are to be modified. Begin defining this scenario by entering 'Storm Intensity' in the
Modification Name field.
7
8
9
10
2.
Modify Existing Data
Modification Name:
I Storm Intensity
Existing Data to Modify: \
Compute PET:
How to Modify:
View
|
View
[Multiply Existing Values by a Number _^J
Number to multiply existing data by
Single Change f Iterate Changes
Value 1.1 multiplication factor
l~~ Vary precipitation only in the following Events
Since we will be modifying historical precipitation data, begin the selection process by
clicking on the OBSERVED item under the Scenario list. In looking at the Matching
Data list, note that there are two data sets with the Constituent name HPRECIP (hourly
precipitation). The HSPF model used in this example is only applying precipitation from
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1
2
3
4
6
7
8
9
10
the Upper Marlboro gage, so click on the data set with UPMARLBR and HPRECIP as
the respective Location and Constituent. (Note: It is possible for more than one data set
to be selected for use in defining a climate scenario.) When this data set has moved to
the Selected Data list, click the Ok button.
Select data to vary
File Attributes Select Help
Select Attribute Values to Filter Available Data
^J Location
PT-OBS
BELTSVIL
SCEN
base
Matching Data (27 of 221 5)
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
1:101
LAUREL
P:101
01594526
LAUREL
UPMARLBR
Selected Data (1 of 2215)
OBSERVED
UPMARLBR
_^J (Constituent
_±l AGWET
AGWI
AGWO
AGWS
AIRT
FLOW
HPRECIP
HPRECIP
HPRECIP
UbbtHVtU tftLlbVIL Hi I
OBSERVED
BELTSVIL AIRTMP
OBSERVED WASH_NAT CLOUD
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
WASH_NAT
WASH_NAT
WIND
DEWPT
jj
Ok
Cancel
3. The Modify Existing Data form has now been updated with a description of the selected
data set in the Existing Data to Modify box. The Compute PET box is for selecting the
evapotranspiration dataset to modify when a temperature climate scenario is being
defined and may be ignored for this example. The How to Modify box contains a list of
methods for modifying the data-set values. For this example, select 'Add/Remove
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1
2
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Volume in Extreme Events'. The form will be updated to allow for specification of storm
intensity modifications.
Modify Existing Data
Modification Name:
Storm Intensity
Existing Data to Modify: [OBSERVED UPMARLBR HPRECIP81Q5 View
Compute PET:
How to Modify:
Kclick to specify PET to replace>
View
Add/Remove Volume in Extreme Events T
Percent Change in Volume
(* Single Change (~ Iterate Changes
Value
[10
pEvents
|7 Vary precipitation only in the following Events Change | % of events
in/hr
hours
inches
hours
Hourly intensity above |[l
Allow gaps up to |0
Total volume above
Total duration above JO
Seasons
l~~ Vary only in selected
Ok
Cancel
4. In the Percent Change in Volume frame leave the Single Change option selected and
enter a value of' 10' percent. It is important to note that this value indicates the percent
change in the total water volume for the entire data set. In the Events frame, there are
two components available for specifying storm intensification: Vary precipitation only
in the following Events and Change a specified % of events. By default the option to
Vary precipitation only in the following Events is checked. Values may be entered for
any or all of the four elements that define an extreme event. Enter '0.1' in the Total
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1
2
3
4
5
6
7
9
10
volume above field, indicating that only events with greater than 0.1 inches/hour will be
considered storm events. The Change ... % of events field is used to specify the
percentage of the qualifying events to be modified. Leaving this field blank will result in
the specified volume change being applied to all qualifying events. Entering a percentage
value will result in the volume change being applied to the highest storms that total that
percentage of the data set's volume. Enter a value of '20' percent of the events, which
will result in a more intense modification being applied to a smaller subset of storms.
Modify Existing Data
ModificationNanne: | S torm I ntensity
E xisting D ata to M odify: (OBSERVED UPMARLBR HPRECIPS105
Compute PET:
How to Modify:
View
Kclick to specify PET to replace>
View
Add/Remove Volume in Extreme Events ~*|
Percent Change in Volume
f* Single Change <~ Iterate Changes
Value PuT" ' %
Events
1^ Vary precipitation only in the following Events Change |2Q % of events
Hourly intensity above |0.1 in/hr
Allow gaps up to [0 hours
Total volume above |0 inches
Total duration above [0 hours
5. Click the Ok button at the bottom of the window. This scenario, as summarized on the
main CAT form, will intensify the storms defined on the previous form by adding 10%
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3
4
5
6
7
of the data set's total volume to them.
Climate Assessment Tool
File Edit Options Help
Climate Data Assessment Endpoints 1 Results Table 1 Pivot Table 1
Base Scenario |C:\BASINS\Data\Climate\base.uci
NewScenario [Modified
Add
0 Increase Precip Multiply 1.2
0 Seasonal Precip Multiply 1.2 Month: Jun Jul Aug
0 Partial Precip Multiply 0.3 Water Year: 1986
0 Storm Intensity Intensify 10
Start Total iterations selected = 1 (0:08)
Having completed defining this scenario, you may use the View button to see the values
in the modified data sets. You may also want to save the state of CAT using the
FilerSave Climate and Endpoints menu option.
3.1.1.5 Add or Remove Storm Events
9 To begin this tutorial, the Climate Assessment Tool form should be displayed with the
10 "\Basins\Data\Climate\base.uci" file as the Base Scenario, "Modified" as the New Scenario,
11 and the "\Basins\Data\Climate\base.wdm" file added to the BASINS project. These
12 specifications are performed in the BASINS-CAT Setup tutorial in Section 3.0, which must be
13 run pri or to thi s tutori al.
14 CAT has the ability to represent changes in storm frequency by adding or removing storms in a
15 historical record. For background on how this feature may be used to represent climate change
16 scenarios, see Section 2.3.1.1.5.
17 This tutorial will show how to make specifications to represent a change in storm frequency.
18 The final result of the tutorial will be a climate scenario that increases the total volume of
19 precipitation by a specified percent by adding storms during selected months in the year.
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1
2
3
4
5
1. To begin creating a new climate scenario, click the Add button and the Modify Existing
Data form will be displayed. This form contains the controls needed to define a climate
adjustment, including an identification label, the dataset(s) to be modified, and how the
data are to be modified. Begin defining this scenario by entering 'Storm Frequency' in
the Modification Name field.
7
8
9
10
2.
Modify Existing Data
Modification Name:
I Storm Frequency
Existing Data to Modify: \
Compute PET:
How to Modify:
View
|
View
[Multiply Existing Values by a Number _^J
Number to multiply existing data by
Single Change f Iterate Changes
Value 1.1 multiplication factor
l~~ Vary precipitation only in the following Events
Since we will be modifying historical precipitation data, begin the selection process by
clicking on the OBSERVED item under the Scenario list. In looking at the Matching
Data list, note that there are two data sets with the Constituent name HPRECIP (hourly
precipitation). The HSPF model used in this example is only applying precipitation from
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1
2
3
4
6
1
8
9
10
the Upper Marlboro gage, so click on the data set with UPMARLBR and HPRECIP as
the respective Location and Constituent. (Note: It is possible for more than one data set
to be selected for use in defining a climate scenario.) When this data set has moved to
the Selected Data list, click the Ok button.
Select data to vary
File Attributes Select Help
Select Attribute Values to Filter Available Data
^J Location
PT-OBS
BELTSVIL
SCEN
base
Matching Data (27 of 221 5)
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
1:101
LAUREL
P:101
01594526
LAUREL
UPMARLBR
Selected Data (1 of 2215)
OBSERVED
UPMARLBR
_^J (Constituent
_±l AGWET
AGWI
AGWO
AGWS
AIRT
FLOW
HPRECIP
HPRECIP
HPRECIP
UbbtHVtU tftLlbVIL Hi I
OBSERVED
BELTSVIL AIRTMP
OBSERVED WASH_NAT CLOUD
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
WASH_NAT
WASH_NAT
WIND
DEWPT
jj
Ok
Cancel
3. The Modify Existing Data form has now been updated with a description of the selected
data set in the Existing Data to Modify box. The Compute PET box is for selecting the
evapotranspiration dataset to modify when a temperature climate scenario is being
defined and may be ignored for this example. The How to Modify box contains a list of
methods for modifying the data-set values. For this example, select 'Add/Remove Storm
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1
2
4
5
6
7
Events'. The
modifications.
Modify Existing Data
form will be updated to allow for specification of storm intensity
Modification Name: |Stornn Frequency
Existing Data to Modify:
Compute PET:
How to Modify:
OBSERVED UPMARLBR HPRECIPS105
|
View |
View |
Add/Rernove Stornn Events
Percent Change in Volume
(* Single Change f* Iterate Changes
Value
Vary precipitation only in the following Events
Hourly intensity above JO in/hr
Allow gaps up to [O hours
Total volume above JO inches
Total duration above JO hours
Seasons
4. In the Percent Change in Volume frame leave the Single Change option selected and
enter a value of' 10' percent, indicating the percent change in the total water volume for
the entire data set. In the Events frame, checking the Vary precipitation only in the
following Events box causes four fields to be displayed for defining what qualifies as a
storm event. Qualifying events will then be randomly selected and duplicated to meet the
10% increase specified above. (Note: "Unchecking" the Vary precipitation only in the
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1
2
3
4
6
7
8
9
10
following Events box results in all precipitation values considered as events qualifying
for duplication.) Values may be entered for any or all of the four elements. Enter '0.1' in
the Total volume above field, indicating that only events with greater than 0.1
inches/hour will be considered storm events.
Modify Existing Data
Modification Name: |Storm Frequency
Existing Data to Modify: | OBSERVED UPMARLBR HPRECIP 8 105
Compute PET:
How to Modify:
View
|
View
jAdd/Remove Storm Events
Percent Change in Volume
(* Single Change C Iterate Changes
Value
[10
Events
Vary precipitation only in the following Events
Hourly intensity above J0.1 in/hr
Allow gaps up to fo hours
Total volume above [0 inches
hours
Total duration above |0
Seasons
f" Vary only in selected
Ok
Cancel
The Seasons frame near the bottom of the form is used for specifying a time subset of the
data set to which the modification will be applied. Begin defining this subset by clicking
on the Vary only in selected check box and two additional fields will be displayed. The
first field is a list of time subset options that includes Calendar Years, Months, and
Water Years. The second field will display a list of available time intervals based on the
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1
2
3
4
5
6
7
9
10
item selected in the first field. For example, selecting Water Years from the first field
will populate the second field with a list of available water years based on the period of
record of the data set. For this example, select the Months option and the second field
will be populated with the months of the year. Items in the second field may be selected
and deselected by clicking on them. Additionally, the buttons below the list may be used
to select All or None of the items. To represent increased storm frequency during spring
months, select Mar, Apr, and May.
Modify Existing Data
Modification Name: |Storm Frequency
ExistingDatatoModify: (OBSERVED UPMARLBR HPRECIPW105
Compute PET:
How to Modify:
View
View
Add/Remove Storm Events
Percent Change in Volume
f* Single Change <~ Iterate Changes
Value PuT" ' %
Events
l^ Vary precipitation only in the following Events
Hourly intensity above |0.1 in/hr
Allow gaps up to [0 hours
Total volume above |0 inches
Total duration above 0 hours
Seasons
Vary only in selected Months
Jun
Jul
,ug
ISep
Pet
Nov
Dec
All
Ok
Click the Ok button at the bottom of the window. This scenario, as summarized on the
main CAT form, will Add storms during Mar Apr May until a 10% increase in the data
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set's original volume has been achieved.
Climate Assessment Tool
File Edit Options Help
Climate Data Assessment Endpoints 1 Results Table 1 Pivot Table 1
Base Scenario |C:\BASINS\Data\Clinnate\base.uci
NewScenario [Modified
Add
0 Increase Precip Multiply 1.2
0 Seasonal Precip Multiply 1.2 Month: Jun Jul Aug
0 Partial Precip Multiply 0.8 Water Year: 1986
0 Storm Intensity Intensify 10
0 Storm Frequency AddE vents 10 Month: Mar Apr May
Start Total iterations selected = 1 (0:08)
3 7. Having completed defining this scenario, you may use the View button to see the values
4 in the modified data sets. You may also want to save the state of CAT using the
5 FilerSave Climate and Endpoints menu option.
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
3.1.2 Modify Historical Air Temperature Records and Regenerate Evapotranspiration Record
As described in the Tools and Methods chapter, temperature records, and thus generated
evapotranspiration records, may be modified in a variety of ways. The tutorials in this section
demonstrate the following modifications:
Applying a change to the entire temperature record and regenerating PET.
Applying a seasonal change and regenerating PET.
Applying a change to a portion of the temperature record and regenerating PET.
These tutorials all assume that the BASINS-CAT Set-up tutorial, in Section 3.0, has already been
run.
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1 3.1.2.1 Apply Increment or Decrement to Full Air Temperature Records and Regenerate
2 Evapotranspiration Record
O
4 To begin this tutorial, the Climate Assessment Tool form should be displayed with the
5 "\Basins\Data\Climate\base.uci" file as the Base Scenario, "Modified" as the New Scenario,
6 and the "\Basins\Data\Climate\base.wdm" file added to the BASINS project. These
7 specifications are performed in the BASINS-CAT Setup tutorial in Section 3.0, which must be
8 run pri or to thi s tutori al.
9 The simplest method of modifying temperature is to apply a multiplier to historical values over
10 the entire span of the model run. Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) data are then regenerated
11 using the modified temperature values. For background on how this feature may be used to
12 represent climate change scenarios, see Section 2.3.1.2.1.
13 This tutorial will show how a single change may be applied to an entire historical air temperature
14 data record and how PET data are regenerated from the modified data. The final result of the
15 tutorial will be a climate adjustment that applies an increase to historical air temperature data and
16 regenerates PET data for use as model input.
17 1. To begin creating a new climate adjustment, click the Add button and the Modify
18 Existing Data form will be displayed. This form contains the controls needed to define a
19 climate adjustment, including an identification label, the dataset(s) to be modified, and
20 how the data are to be modified. The Modification Name field is used to provide a text
21 label for identifying the scenario being created. Begin defining this scenario by entering
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'Temperature' in the Modification Name field.
Modify Existing Data
Modification Name: [Temperature
Existing Data to Modify: \
Compute PET:
How to Modify:
View
|
View
[Multiply Existing Values by a Number _^J
Number to multiply existing data by
(* Single Change f Iterate Changes
Value 1.1 multiplication factor
Events
l~~ Vary precipitation only in the following Events
Seasons -
l~~ Vary only in selected
Cancel
3 2. To select the air temperature data to modify, click in the Existing Data to Modify box
4 and the Select data to vary form will be displayed. In the top third of this window, titled
5 Select Attribute Values to Filter Available Data, you can filter the type of data to
6 select by Scenario, Location, or Constituent. The data matching your selections will
7 appear in the middle third of the window, titled Matching Data. To further filter the
8 data, select one or more data sets from the Matching Data list, which will show up in the
9 lower third of the window under Selected Data. If you would like to select all of the
10 Matching Data, leave the Selected Data area blank. Click on individual data sets to
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remove them from Selected Data.
Select data to vary
File Attributes Select Help
Select Attribute Values to Filter Available Data
OBSERVED
PT-OBS
SCEN
base
Matching Data (2215 of 2215)
base
_^J [location
015S4526
BELTSVIL
1:101
LAUREL
P:101
base
base
base
base
base
base
base
P:101
P:101
P:101
P:101
P:101
P:101
P:101
P:101
Selected Data
3.0 Tutorials
_^J [Constituent
_±l AGWET
AGWI
AGWO
AGWS
AIRT
GAGE
SEGMENT
PERS
CEPS
SURS
UZS
IFWS
LZS
Ok
Cancel
3 3. Begin the selection process by looking at the first column, labeled Scenario, in the Select
4 Attribute Values to Filter Available Data frame Click on the OBSERVED item and
5 all data sets with a Scenario attribute of OBSERVED will be added to the Matching
6 Data list. In looking at the last column of the Matching Data list, note the data set with
7 the Constituent name AIRTMP (air temperature). Click on this data set and it will be
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3
4
5
6
1
added to the Selected Data list. Click the Ok button to close the form.
Select data to vary
File Attributes Select Help
Select Attribute Values to Filter Available Data
FT-DBS
SCEN
base
Matching Data (27 of 2215)
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
Selected Data (1 of 2215)
OBSERVED
^J [location
015S4526
BELTSVIL
1:101
LAUREL
P:101
01594526
LAUREL
UPMARLBR
BELTSVIL
BELTSVIL
WASH_NAT
WASH_NAT
WASH NAT
BELTSVIL
_^J [Constituent
_±l AGWET
AGWI
AGWO
AGWS
AIRT
HPRECIP
HPRECIP
PET
CLOUD
WIND
DEWPT
AIRTMP
Ok
Cancel
The Modify Existing Data form has now been updated with a description of the selected
data set in the Existing Data to Modify box. When modifying temperature it is
necessary to also re-compute the Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) using the modified
temperature data. Click in the Compute PET box to specify which PET data to re-
compute.
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3.0 Tutorials
Modify Existing Data
Modification Name: (Temperature
E xisting D ata to M odify: pQBSERVED BELTSVIL AIRTMP tt 122
Compute PET:
How to Modify:
|
View |
View |
Multiply Existing Values by a Number
Number to multiply existing data by
(* Single Change (~ Iterate Changes
Value
Events
I~ Vary precipitation only in the following Events
2 5. In the Select data to vary form, again click on the OBSERVED item in the Scenario
3 column and then click the OBSERVED BELTSVIL PET data set from the Matching
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3
4
5
6
1
8
9
10
Data list. Click the Ok button to close the Select data to vary form.
Select PET to replace with values computed from air temperature
File Attributes Select Help
Select Attribute Values to Filter Available Data
FT-DBS
SCEN
base
Matching Data (27 of 2215)
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
Selected Data (1 of 2215)
OBSERVED
^J [location
015S4526
BELTSVIL
1:101
LAUREL
P:101
UPMARLBR
BELTSVIL
BELTSVIL
WASH NAT
WASH_NAT
WASH NAT
BELTSVIL
_^J [Constituent
_±l AGWET
AGWI
AGWO
AGWS
AIRT
HPRECIP
HPRECIP
AIRTMP
PET
CLOUD
WIND
DEWPT
Ok
Cancel
The Modify Existing Data form has been updated with a description of the selected data
set in the Compute PET box. The How to Modify box contains a list of methods for
modifying the data-set values. For this example, select the "Change Temperature"
option In the Degrees to add to each existing temperature value frame, there are two
modification options: Single Change or Iterate Changes. The term 'iterate' as used
here refers to the automation of multiple runs. The Single Change option will result in
one adjustment applied to the temperature data set. The Iterate Changes option will
result in a series of adjustments to the temperature data set and is used to create
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1
2
3
4
5
"synthetic" climate change scenarios as described in Section 2.3.1.4. Use of this option is
shown in the Tutorial found in Section 3.1.4 Create Synthetic Climate Change Scenarios.
For this example, we will use the Single Change option. Enter '2' in the Value field,
thus defining the amount to be added to all values in the temperature data set. Click the
Ok button to complete the scenario definition process.
Modify Existing Data
Modification Name: [Temperature
E xisting D ata to M odify: (OBSERVED BELTSVILAIRTMPtt 122
Compute PET:
How to Modify:
View
(OBSERVED BELTSVIL PETS 111
View
I Change Temperature
-Degrees to add to each existing temperature value
Single Change f Iterate Changes
Value 2 degrees
l~~ Vary precipitation only in the following Events
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1
2
7. The Climate Assessment Tool form is now updated to show the newly defined climate
scenario.
4
5
6
7
File Edit Options Help
Assessment Endpoints Results Table Pivot Table
Base Scenario C:\BASINS\Data\Climate\base.uci
N ew S cenario [Modified
Add
'0 Increase Precip Multiply 1.2
0 Seasonal Precip Multiply 1.2 Month: Jun Jul Aug
0 Partial Precip Multiply 0.8 Water Year: 1986
0 Storm Intensity Intensify 10
0 Storm Frequency AddE vents 10 Month: Mar Apr May
0 Temperature Add 2
Start I Total iterations selected = 1 (0:08)
To complete this session, close the data listing and save the state of CAT, using the
File: Save Climate and Endpoints menu option, if desired.
3.1.2.2 Apply Seasonal Increment or Decrement to Air Temperature Records and Regenerate
Evapotranspiration Record
10 To begin this tutorial, the Climate Assessment Tool form should be displayed with the
11 "\Basins\Data\Climate\base.uci" file as the Base Scenario, "Modified" as the New Scenario,
12 and the "\Basins\Data\Climate\base.wdm" file added to the BASINS project. These
13 specifications are performed in the BASINS-CAT Setup tutorial in Section 3.0, which must be
14 run pri or to thi s tutori al.
15 As with precipitation, CAT allows for the modification of temperature (and computed PET)
16 values for a specified portion of the year. With many climate models predicting larger
17 temperature increases (in total degrees) in warmer months than in cooler, this capability can be
18 very useful in representing varying patterns throughout the year. For background on how this
19 feature may be used to represent climate change scenarios, see Section 2.3.1.2.2.
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1 This tutorial will show how a single change may be applied to a historical air temperature data
2 record for a specified portion of the year and how PET data are regenerated from the modified
3 data. The final result of the tutorial will be two climate adjustments, one for cool months and
4 one for warm, that apply different increases to historical air temperature data and regenerate PET
5 data for use as model input.
6 1. To begin creating the cool months temperature adjustment, click the Add button and the
7 Modify Existing Data form will be displayed. This form contains the controls needed to
8 define a climate adjustment, including an identification label, the dataset(s) to be
9 modified, and how the data are to be modified. The Modification Name field is used to
10 provide a text label for identifying the scenario being created. Begin defining this
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scenario by entering 'Temp Cool Season' in the Modification Name field
Modify Existing Data
Modification Name: JTennp Cool Season
Existing Data to Modify: \
Compute PET:
How to Modify:
View
|
View
[Multiply Existing Values by a Number _^J
Number to multiply existing data by
(* Single Change f Iterate Changes
Value 1.1 multiplication factor
Events
l~~ Vary precipitation only in the following Events
Seasons -
l~~ Vary only in selected
Cancel
3 2. To select the air temperature data to modify, click in the Existing Data to Modify box
4 and the Select data to vary form will be displayed. A detailed description of this form is
5 found in steps 2 and 3 of the tutorial in Section 3.1.2.1. In the first column, under the
6 Scenario label, click on the OBSERVED item and all data sets with a Scenario attribute
7 of OBSERVED will be added to the Matching Data list. In looking at the last column of
8 the Matching Data list, note the data set with the Constituent name AIRTMP (air
9 temperature). Click on this data set and it will be added to the Selected Data list. Click
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3.0 Tutorials
the Ok button to close the form.
Select data to vary
File Attributes Select Help
Select Attribute Values to Filter Available Data
FT-DBS
SCEN
base
Matching Data (27 of 2215)
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
Selected Data (1 of 2215)
OBSERVED
^J [location
015S4526
BELTSVIL
1:101
LAUREL
P:101
01594526
LAUREL
UPMARLBR
BELTSVIL
BELTSVIL
WASH_NAT
WASH_NAT
WASH NAT
BELTSVIL
_^J [Constituent
_±l AGWET
AGWI
AGWO
AGWS
AIRT
HPRECIP
HPRECIP
PET
CLOUD
WIND
DEWPT
AIRTMP
Ok
Cancel
3 3. The Modify Existing Data form has now been updated with a description of the selected
4 data set in the Existing Data to Modify box. When modifying temperature it is
5 necessary to also re-compute the Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) using the modified
6 temperature data. Click in the Compute PET box to specify which PET data to re-
7 compute.
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2
3
' Modify Existing Data
Modification Name: JTemp Cool Season
E Kisting D ata to M odify: ||QBSERVED BELTSVILAIRTMP tt 122
Compute PET:
How to Modify:
|
View
View
[Multiply Existing Values by a Number
Number to multiply existing data by
(* Single Change (" Iterate Changes
Value
multiplication factor
Events
|~~ Vary precipitation only in the following Events
Seasons
f" Vary only in selected
Ok
Cancel
In the Select data to vary form, again click on the OBSERVED item in the Scenario
column and then click the OBSERVED BELTSVIL PET data set from the Matching
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3.0 Tutorials
Data list. Click the Ok button to close the Select data to vary form.
Select PET to replace with values computed from air temperature
File Attributes Select Help
Select Attribute Values to Filter Available Data
FT-DBS
SCEN
base
Matching Data (27 of 2215)
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
Selected Data (1 of 2215)
OBSERVED
^J [location
015S4526
BELTSVIL
1:101
LAUREL
P:101
UPMARLBR
BELTSVIL
BELTSVIL
WASH NAT
WASH_NAT
WASH NAT
BELTSVIL
_^J [Constituent
_±l AGWET
AGWI
AGWO
AGWS
AIRT
HPRECIP
HPRECIP
AIRTMP
CLOUD
WIND
DEWPT
PET
Ok
Cancel
3 5. The Modify Existing Data form has been updated with a description of the selected data
4 set in the Compute PET box. The How to Modify box contains a list of methods for
5 modifying the data-set values. For this example, the "Change Temperature" option will
6 be used. A detailed description of the Degrees to add to each existing temperature
7 value frame is found in the tutorial in Section 3.1.2.1. For this example, we will use the
8 Single Change option. Enter '2' in the Value field, which will be the temperature
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3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
increase applied to the air temperature values in the season defined in the next step
Modify Existing Data
Modification Name: JTennp Cool Season
E xisting D ata to M odify: (OBSERVED BELTSVILAIRTMPtt 122
Compute PET:
How to Modify:
View
(OBSERVED BELTSVIL PETS 111
View
IChange Temperature
Degrees to add to each existing temperature value
(* Single Change <~ Iterate Changes
Value 2 degrees
Events
l~~ Vary precipitation only in the following Events
Seasons -
f" Vary only in selected
Cancel
The Seasons frame near the bottom of the form is used for specifying a time subset of the
data set to which the modification will be applied. Begin defining this subset by clicking
on the Vary only in selected check box and two additional fields will be displayed. The
first field is a list of time subset options that includes Calendar Years, Months, and
Water Years. The second field will display a list of available time intervals based on the
item selected in the first field. For example, selecting Water Years from the first field
will populate the second field with a list of available water years based on the period of
record of the data set. For this example, select the Months option and the second field
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1
2
3
4
6
7
will be populated with the months of the year. Items in the second field may be selected
and deselected by clicking on them. Additionally, the buttons below the list may be used
to select All or None of the items. To apply the 2 degree increase to cooler months,
select Nov through Apr.
Modify Existing Data
Modification Name: JTemp Cool Season
E xisting D ata to M odify: (OBSERVED BELTSVILAIRTMP tt 122
ComputePET: (OBSERVED BELTSVIL PET 8 111
How to Modify:
View
View
(Change Temperature
Degrees to add to each existing temperature value
(* Single Change f Iterate Changes
Value [2 degrees
Events
|~~ Vary precipitation only in the following Events
Seasons
Vary only in selected M onths
Ok
Cancel
1. Click the Ok button to complete defining the cooler month's temperature adjustment.
The newly defined adjustment will be shown on the Climate Assessment Tool form. To
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3
4
5
6
1
begin defining the warm month's air temperature adjustment, click the Add button again
Climate Assessment Tool
File Edit Options Help
Climate Data Assessment Endpoints 1 Results Table 1 Pivot Table 1
Base Scenario |C:\BASINS\Data\Clinnate\base.uci
NewScenario [Modified
Add
0 Increase Precip Multiply 1.2
0 Seasonal Precip Multiply 1.2 Month: Jun Jul Aug
0 Partial Precip Multiply 0.8 Water Year: 1986
0 Storm Intensity Intensify 10
0 Storm Frequency AddE vents 10 Month: Mar Apr May
0 Temperature Add 2
0 Temp Cool Season Add 2 Month: Jan Feb Mar Apr Nov Dec
Start Total iterations selected = 1 (0:08)
From the Modify Existing Data form, enter 'Temp Warm Season' in the Modification
Name field. Next, repeat steps 2 - 4 to select the same air temperature and PET data sets
as before. For the warm month's adjustment, we will apply a 4 degree increase to the
historical data. Select Change Temperature from the How to Modify list and then
enter '4' in the Value field. In the Seasons frame, again select Months from the first list
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and then select May through Oct.
Modify Existing Data
ModificationNanne: IT emp Warm S eason
E xisting D ata to M odi^: (OBSERVED BELTSVILAIRTMPtt 122
Compute PET:
How to Modify:
View
(OBSERVED BELTSVIL PETS 111
View
IChange Temperature
Degrees to add to each existing temperature value
(* Single Change <~ Iterate Changes
Value 4 degrees
Events
F" Vary precipitation only in the following Events
Seasons
Vary onli) in selected Months
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1
2
4
5
6
7
Click the Ok button to complete defining the warm month's temperature adjustment.
The newly defined adjustment will be shown on the Climate Assessment Tool form.
File Edit Options Help
Assessment Endpoints Results Table Pivot Table
Base Scenario C:\BASINS\Data\Climate\base.uci
N ew S cenario [Modified
'0 Increase Precip Multiply 1.2
0 Seasonal Precip Multiply 1.2 Month: Jun Jul Aug
0 Partial Precip Multiply 0.8 Water Year: 1986
0 Storm Intensity Intensify 10
0 Storm Frequency AddE vents 10 Month: Mar Apr May
0 Temperature Add 2
0 Tennp Cool Season Add 2 Month: Jan Feb Mar Apr Nov Dec
0 Temp Warm Season Add 4 Month: May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Start I Total iterations selected = 1 (0:08)
10. To complete this session, save the state of CAT, using the File: Save Climate and
Endpoints menu option, if desired.
3.1.2.3 Adjust Partial Record and Regenerate Evapotranspiration Record
9 To begin this tutorial, the Climate Assessment Tool form should be displayed with the
10 "\Basins\Data\Climate\base.uci" file as the Base Scenario, "Modified" as the New Scenario,
11 and the "\Basins\Data\Climate\base.wdm" file added to the BASINS project. These
12 specifications are performed in the BASINS-CAT Setup tutorial in Section 3.0, which must be
13 run pri or to thi s tutori al.
14 A common climate scenario need is to adjust historical values during a particular portion of the
15 model run. For example, investigating the impacts of drought may include increasing the air
16 temperature values, and re-computing PET values, for a specified year. For background on how
17 this feature may be used to represent climate change scenarios, see Section 2.3.1.2.3.
18 This tutorial will show how a single change may be applied to a historical air temperature data
19 record for a specified portion of the model run and how PET data are regenerated from the
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1 modified data. The final result of the tutorial will be a climate adjustment that increases
2 historical air temperature data and regenerates PET data for a single year of a model run.
3 1. To begin creating a new climate scenario, click the Add button and the Modify Existing
4 Data form will be displayed. This form contains the controls needed to define a climate
5 adjustment, including an identification label, the dataset(s) to be modified, and how the
6 data are to be modified. The Modification Name field is used to provide a text label for
7 identifying the scenario being created. Begin defining this scenario by entering 'Partial
8 Temp' in the Modification Name field.
Modify Existing Data
Modification Name: [Partial Temp
Existing Data to Modify: |< click to specify data to modify>
Compute PET:
How to Modify:
View
|
[Multiply Existing Values by a Number _r]
Number to multiply existing data by
(* Single Change f Iterate Changes
Value pU multiplication factor
Events
F" Vary precipitation only in the following Events
Seasons
l~~ Vary only in selected
Ok
Cancel
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1 2. To select the air temperature data to modify, click in the Existing Data to Modify box
2 and the Select data to vary form will be displayed. A detailed description of this form is
3 found in steps 2 and 3 of the tutorial in Section 3.1.2.1. In the first column, under the
4 Scenario label, click on the OBSERVED item and all data sets with a Scenario attribute
5 of OBSERVED will be added to the Matching Data list. In looking at the last column of
6 the Matching Data list, note the data set with the Constituent name AIRTMP (air
7 temperature). Click on this data set and it will be added to the Selected Data list. Click
8 the Ok button to close the form.
Select data to vary
File Attributes Select Help
Select Attribute Values to Filter Available Data
Matching Data (27 of 2215)
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
tedData(1 of 2215)
OBSERVED
BELTSVIL
WASH_NAT
WASH_NAT
WASH NAT
BELTSVIL
AIRTMP
CLOUD
WIND
DEWPT
AIRTMP
^J (Constituent
_±l AGWET
01594526
LAUREL
UPMARLBR
BELTSVIL
Ok
Cancel
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1
2
3
4
5
6
7
3. The Modify Existing Data form has now been updated with a description of the selected
data set in the Existing Data to Modify box. When modifying temperature it is
necessary to also re-compute the Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) using the modified
temperature data. Click in the Compute PET box to specify which PET data to re-
compute.
4.
E Kisting D ata to M odify: (OBSERVED BELTSVILAIRTMP S122
Compute PET:
How to Modify:
View
|
View
Multiply Existing Values by a Number ^l
Number to multiply existing data by
( Single Change <~ Iterate Changes
Value
fiT
multiplication factor
Events
|~~ Vary precipitation only in the following Events
Seasons
f~ Vary only in selected
In the Select data to vary form, again click on the OBSERVED item in the Scenario
column and then click the OBSERVED BELTSVIL PET data set from the Matching
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Data list. Click the Ok button to close the Select data to vary form.
Select PET to replace with values computed from air temperature
File Attributes Select Help
Select Attribute Values to Filter Available Data
FT-DBS
SCEN
base
Matching Data (27 of 2215)
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
Selected Data (1 of 2215)
OBSERVED
^J [location
015S4526
BELTSVIL
1:101
LAUREL
P:101
UPMARLBR
BELTSVIL
BELTSVIL
WASH NAT
WASH_NAT
WASH NAT
BELTSVIL
_^J [Constituent
_±l AGWET
AGWI
AGWO
AGWS
AIRT
HPRECIP
HPRECIP
AIRTMP
CLOUD
WIND
DEWPT
PET
Ok
Cancel
3 5. The Modify Existing Data form has been updated with a description of the selected data
4 set in the Compute PET box. The How to Modify box contains a list of methods for
5 modifying the data-set values. For this example, the "Change Temperature" option will
6 be used. A detailed description of the Degrees to add to each existing temperature
7 value frame is found in the tutorial in Section 3.1.2.1. For this example, we will use the
8 Single Change option. Enter '3' in the Value field, which will be the temperature
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3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
increase applied to the air temperature values in the year specified in the next step
Modify Existing Data
Modification Name:
I Partial Temp
E xisting D ata to M odify: (OBSERVED BELTSVILAIRTMPtt 122
Compute PET:
How to Modify:
View
(OBSERVED BELTSVIL PETS 111
View
IChange Temperature
Degrees to add to each existing temperature value
(* Single Change f Iterate Changes
Value 3 degrees
Events
F" Vary precipitation only in the following Events
Seasons -
f" Vary only in selected
Cancel
The Seasons frame near the bottom of the form is used for specifying a time subset of the
data set to which the modification will be applied. Begin defining this subset by clicking
on the Vary only in selected check box and two additional fields will be displayed. The
first field is a list of time subset options that includes Calendar Years, Months, and
Water Years. The second field will display a list of available time intervals based on the
item selected in the first field. For example, selecting Water Years from the first field
will populate the second field with a list of available water years based on the period of
record of the data set. Items in the second field may be selected and deselected by
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1
2
3
4
clicking on them. Additionally, the buttons below the list may be used to select All or
None of the items. The sample HSPF run used here is run for water years 1986 through
1988, with 1986 being the driest. Thus, to help assess the impact of drought, select the
Water Years option and then select 1986 from the list of available water years.
Modify Existing Data
Modification Name: |Partial Temp
E xisting D ata to M odify: (OBSERVED BELTSVILAIRTMP tt 122
ComputePET: (OBSERVED BELTSVIL PET 8 111
How to Modify:
View
View
(Change Temperature
Degrees to add to each existing temperature value
(* Single Change <"" Iterate Changes
Value
degrees
Events
|~~ Vary precipitation only in the following Events
Seasons
Vary only in selected Water Years
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
JE5I3
1987
1988
1989
1990
11991
All
None
Ok
Cancel
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1
2
4
5
6
7
7. Click the Ok button to complete the scenario definition process. The Climate
Assessment Tool form is now updated to show the newly defined climate scenario.
Climate Assessment Tool 01*1EJ
File Edit Options Help
Climate Data
Assessment Endpoints Results Table Pivot Table
Base Scenario |C:\BASINS\Data\Climate\base.uci
New Scenario [Modified
Remove
Edit
View
Prepared
0 Increase Precip Multiply 1.2
0 Seasonal Precip Multiply 1.2 Month: Jun Jul Aug
0 Partial Precip Multiply 0.8 Water Year: 1986
0 Storm Intensity Intensify 10
0 Storm Frequency AddE vents 10 Month: Mar Apr May
0 Temperature Add 2
0 Tennp Cool Season Add 2 Month: Jan Feb Mar Apr Nov Dec
0 Temp Warm Season Add 4 Month: May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
0 Partial Temp Add 3 Water Year: 1986
Start | Total iterations selected = 1 (0:08)
To complete this session, save the state of CAT, using the File: Save Climate and
Endpoints menu option, if desired.
3.1.3 Combine multiple changes to create a climate change scenario
9 This tutorial requires some number of climate adjustments to be defined using the tutorials in
10 Sections 3.1.1.1 through 3.1.2.3. This tutorial uses climate adjustments defined in previous
11 tutorials to show how they can be combined to create climate change scenarios composed of
12 multiple adjustments to historical temperature and/or precipitation data. However, the tutorial
13 can also be performed using climate adjustments other than those shown here.
14 This tutorial will create two climate change scenarios. The first combines temperature and
15 precipitation changes to create a long term change scenario. The second combines decreasing
16 precipitation and increasing temperature for a selected, single year to create a scenario
17 representing the potential intensification of a drought year.
18 1. The Climate Assessment Tool form displays the previously defined climate adjustments
19 in a list on the Climate Data tab. Each adjustment has a check box for indicating
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1
2
3
4
5
6
7
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
whether or not it is to be included as a component of the climate scenario being
developed. The order of adjustments may be controlled by selecting an adjustment and
using the up and down arrow buttons above the list. This is particularly important when
multiple adjustments are being made to the same values in an input data set (e.g.
increasing an entire precipitation record and also increasing a season's storm intensity).
2. Begin defining a climate scenario by "checking on" the following adjustments:
Increase Precip Multiply 1.2
Temperature Add 2
All other climate adjustments should be "checked off. This combination of adjustments
represents a climate scenario that is available for input to the model. (Note: This scenario
will not be run here as this tutorial is only demonstrating how climate change scenarios
are defined).
Climate Assessment Tool
File Edit Options Help
Climate Data Assessment Endpoints | Results Table | Pivot Table 1
Base Scenario |C:\BASINSSData\Climate\base.uci
N ew S cenario [Modified
Remove
Edit
View
Prepared
0 Increase Precip Multiply 1.2
n Seasonal Precip Multiply 1.2 Month: Jun Jul Aug
D Partial Precip Multiply 0.8 Water Year: 1986
n Storm Intensity Intensify 10
n Storm Frequency AddE vents 10 Month: Mar Apr May
H Temperature Add
Tennp Cool Season Add 2 Month: Jan Feb Mar Apr Nov Dec
Ternp Warm Season Add 4 Month: May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
D Partial Temp Add 3 Water Year: 1986
Synthetic Temp Add from 0 to 3 step 1
Synthetic Precip Multiply from 1 to 1.3 step 0.1
Start Total iterations selected = 1 (0:08)
3. Begin defining another scenario by "checking on" the following scenarios:
Partial Precip Multiply 0.8 Water Year: 1986
Partial Temp Add 3 Water Year: 1986
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1
2
5
6
1
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
All other climate adjustments should be "checked off. This combination of adjustments
represents a climate scenario for assessing the intensification of a drought year during a
model run.
Climate Assessment Tool
File Edit Options Help
Climate Data | Assessment Endpoints 1 Results Table | Pivot Table |
Base Scenario (C:\ElASINS\Data\Climate\base.uci
New Scenario |Modified
Remove
Prepared
n Increase Precip Multiply 1.2
n Seasonal Precip Multiply 1.2 Month: Jun Jul Aug
0 Partial Precip Multiply 0.8 Water Year: 1986
D Storm Intensity Intensify 10
n Storm Frequency AddE vents 10 Month: Mar Apr May
n Temperature Add 2
n Temp Cool Season Add 2 Month: Jan Feb Mar Apr Nov Dec
n Temp Warm Season Add 4 Month: May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
H Partial Temp Add 3
Synthetic Temp Add from 0 to 3 step 1
D Synthetic Precip Multiply from 1 to 1.3 step 0.1
Start Total iterations selected = 1 (0:08)
At the bottom of the CAT form, a label indicates the number of model runs (or
iterations) that will be performed. For each climate scenario shown here, only one
model run will be made. When a synthetic climate scenario (see the tutorial in Section
3.1.4) is used, a series of model runs is made to represent the iterations of the synthetic
scenario. If multiple synthetic scenarios are used, a model run is made for each unique
combination of adjustments defined by the scenarios. For example, a synthetic
temperature scenario with four iterations combined with a synthetic temperature scenario
with three iterations would result in twelve model runs.
3.1.4 Create Synthetic Climate Change Scenarios
To begin this tutorial, the Climate Assessment Tool form should be displayed with the
"\Basins\Data\Climate\base.uci" file as the Base Scenario, "Modified" as the New Scenario,
and the "\Basins\Data\Climate\base.wdm" file added to the BASINS project. These
specifications are performed in the BASINS-CAT Setup tutorial in Section 3.0, which must be
run prior to this tutorial.
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1 CAT facilitates the creation of synthetic climate change scenarios by allowing for the
2 specification of an iterative set of modifications to historical data. For background on how this
3 feature may be used to represent climate change scenarios, see Section 2.3.1.4.
4 This tutorial will show how a series of multipliers may be applied to an entire historical
5 precipitation data record to create synthetic climate change scenarios. The final result of the
6 tutorial will be two synthetic scenarios - one that incrementally increases temperature values and
7 one that incrementally increases precipitation values.
8 1. To begin creating the synthetic temperature scenario, click the Add button and the
9 Modify Existing Data form will be displayed. This form contains the controls needed to
10 define a climate adjustment, including an identification label, the dataset(s) to be
11 modified, and how the data are to be modified. The Modification Name field is used to
12 provide a text label for identifying the scenario being created. Begin defining this
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scenario by entering 'Synthetic Temp' in the Modification Name field
Modify Existing Data
Modification Name: [Synthetic Temp
Existing Data to Modify: \
Compute PET:
How to Modify:
View
|
View
[Multiply Existing Values by a Number _^J
Number to multiply existing data by
(* Single Change f Iterate Changes
Value 1.1 multiplication factor
Events
l~~ Vary precipitation only in the following Events
Seasons -
l~~ Vary only in selected
Cancel
3 2. To select the air temperature data to modify, click in the Existing Data to Modify box
4 and the Select data to vary form will be displayed. A detailed description of this form is
5 found in steps 2 and 3 of the tutorial in Section 3.1.2.1. In the first column, under the
6 Scenario label, click on the OBSERVED item and all data sets with a Scenario attribute
7 of OBSERVED will be added to the Matching Data list. In looking at the last column of
8 the Matching Data list, note the data set with the Constituent name AIRTMP (air
9 temperature). Click on this data set and it will be added to the Selected Data list. Click
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the Ok button to close the form.
Select data to vary
File Attributes Select Help
Select Attribute Values to Filter Available Data
FT-DBS
SCEN
base
Matching Data (27 of 2215)
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
Selected Data (1 of 2215)
OBSERVED
^J [location
015S4526
BELTSVIL
1:101
LAUREL
P:101
01594526
LAUREL
UPMARLBR
BELTSVIL
BELTSVIL
WASH_NAT
WASH_NAT
WASH NAT
BELTSVIL
_^J [Constituent
_±l AGWET
AGWI
AGWO
AGWS
AIRT
HPRECIP
HPRECIP
PET
CLOUD
WIND
DEWPT
AIRTMP
Ok
Cancel
3 3. The Modify Existing Data form has now been updated with a description of the selected
4 data set in the Existing Data to Modify box. When modifying temperature it is
5 necessary to also re-compute the Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) using the modified
6 temperature data. Click in the Compute PET box to specify which PET data to re-
7 compute.
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2
3
' Modify Existing Data
Modification Name: [Synthetic Temp
E xisting D ata to M odify: [OBSERVED BELTSVIL AIRTMP tt 122
Compute PET:
How to Modify:
| < click to specify PET to replace>
View
View
[Multiply Existing Values by a Number
Number to multiply existing data by
(* Single Change (" Iterate Changes
Value
multiplication factor
Events
|~~ Vary precipitation only in the following Events
Seasons
f" Vary only in selected
Ok
Cancel
In the Select data to vary form, again click on the OBSERVED item in the Scenario
column and then click the OBSERVED BELTSVIL PET data set from the Matching
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Data list. Click the Ok button to close the Select data to vary form.
Select PET to replace with values computed from air temperature
File Attributes Select Help
Select Attribute Values to Filter Available Data
FT-DBS
SCEN
base
Matching Data (27 of 2215)
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
Selected Data (1 of 2215)
OBSERVED
^J [location
015S4526
BELTSVIL
1:101
LAUREL
P:101
UPMARLBR
BELTSVIL
BELTSVIL
WASH NAT
WASH_NAT
WASH NAT
BELTSVIL
_^J [Constituent
_±l AGWET
AGWI
AGWO
AGWS
AIRT
HPRECIP
HPRECIP
AIRTMP
PET
CLOUD
WIND
DEWPT
Ok
Cancel
3 5. The Modify Existing Data form has been updated with a description of the selected data
4 set in the Compute PET box. The How to Modify box contains a list of methods for
5 modifying the data-set values. For this scenario, select the "Change Temperature"
6 option In the Degrees to add to each existing temperature value frame, there are two
7 modification options: Single Change or Iterate Changes. The term 'iterate' as used
8 here refers to the automation of multiple runs. The Single Change option will result in
9 one adjustment applied to the temperature and PET data sets. The Iterate Changes
10 option will result in a series of adjustments to the temperature and PET data sets and is
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1
2
3
4
5
6
7
used to create "synthetic" climate change scenarios as defined in Section 23.1.4. Click
the Iterate Changes radio button and the form will be updated to allow entry of
Minimum and Maximum degree changes along with an Increment to apply over that
range. Enter a Minimum value of '0', a Maximum value of '3', and an Increment value
of' 1'. This will create a synthetic scenario with four iterations, the first being identical to
the original data and the ensuing three having 1 additional degree added to historical
temperature data with PET data being computed from each. Click the Ok button to
complete the scenario definition process.
Modify Existing Data
Modification Name: [Synthetic Temp
E xisting D ata to M odify: (OBSERVED BELTSVILAIRTMP tt 122
ComputePET: (OBSERVED BELTSVIL PET 8 111
How to Modify:
View
View
(Change Temperature
Degrees to add to each existing temperature value
C Single Change (* Iterate Changes
Minimum [0 degrees
Maximum: |3 degrees
Increment: |1
Increase this much each iteration from Minimum
Events
|~~ Vary precipitation only in the following Events
Seasons
|~~ Vary only in selected
Ok
Cancel
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1
2
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
The Climate Assessment Tool form is now updated to show the newly defined climate
scenario. To begin defining the synthetic precipitation scenario, click the Add button
again.
Climate Assessment Tool
File Edit Options Help
Climate Data | Assessment Endpoints 1 Results Table | Pivot Table |
Base Scenario (C:\BASINS\Data\Climate\base.uci
New Scenario |Modified
Add
Remove
Prepared
0 Increase Precip Multiply 1.2
0 Seasonal Precip Multiply 1.2 Month: Jun Jul Aug
0 Partial Precip Multiply 0.8 Water Year: 1986
0 Storm Intensity Flash 10
0 Storm Frequency AddE vents 10 Month: Mar Apr May
0 Temperature Add 2
0 Temp Cool Season Add 2 Month: Jan Feb Mar Apr Nov Dec
0 Temp Warm Season Add 4 Month: May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
0 Partial Temp Add 3 Water Year: 1986
0 Synthetic Temp Add from 0 to 3 step 1
Start Total iterations selected = 4 (0:32)
7. From the Modify Existing Data form, enter 'Synthetic Precip' in the Modification
Name field. Next, click in the Existing Data to Modify box to select the precipitation
data set to be modified. As in step 2, from the Select data to vary form click the
OBSERVED item from the Scenario list. From the Matching Data list, click on the
data set with the attributes OBSERVED UPMARLBR HPRECIP and then click the
Ok. The Modify Existing Data form will be updated to show the selected precipitation
data set.
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2
3
4
5
6
7
' Modify Existing Data
Modification Name: [Synthetic Precip
Existing Data to Modify: (OBSERVED UPMARLBR HPRECIP tt 105
Compute PET:
How to Modify:
|
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precipitation data. Click the Ok button to complete the scenario definition process
Modify Existing Data
Modification Name: [Synthetic Precip
Existing Data to Modify: [OBSERVED UPMARLBR HPRECIPS105 View
Compute PET:
How to Modify:
|
View
I Multiply Existing Values by a Number _^J
Number to multiply existing data by
(" Single Change <" Iterate Changes
Minimum J1.Q
Maximum: |1.3
Increment: [[LI
multiplication factor
multiplication factor
Increase this much each iteration from Minimum
Events
l~~ Vary precipitation only in the following Events
Seasons -
l~~ Vary only in selected
Cancel
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1
2
Click the Ok button to complete defining the synthetic precipitation scenario. The newly
defined scenario will be shown on the Climate Assessment Tool form.
4
5
6
7
File Edit Options Help
Assessment Endpoints Results Table Pivot Table
Base Scenario C:\BASINS\Data\Climate\base.uci
N ew S cenario [Modified
0 Increase Precip Multiply 1.2
0 Seasonal Precip Multiply 1.2 Month: Jun Jul Aug
0 Partial Precip Multiply 0.8 Water Year: 1986
0 Storm Intensity Intensify 10
0 Storm Frequency AddE vents 10 Month: Mar Apr May
0 Temperature Add 2
0 Tennp Cool Season Add 2 Month: Jan Feb Mar Apr Nov Dec
0 Temp Warm Season Add 4 Month: May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
0 Partial Temp Add 3 Water Year: 1986
0 Synthetic Temp Add from 0 to 3 step 1
0 Synthetic Precip Multiply from 1 to 1.3 step 0.1
Start Total iterations selected = 16 (2:07)
10. To complete this session, save the state of CAT, using the File: Save Climate and
Endpoints menu option, if desired.
Exporting Climate Change Scenarios as ASCII Text Files
9 This tutorial requires the development of at least one climate adjustment. This can be either a
10 precipitation (Sections 3.1.1.1 - 3.1.1.5) or temperature (Sections 3.1.2.1 - 3.1.2.3) adjustment (or
11 both). This tutorial uses a specific adjustment as an example, but the exporting feature shown
12 here can be applied to any defined adjustment.
13 This tutorial will demonstrate how climate adjustments defined in CAT can be exported to a file
14 for use elsewhere. Individual adjustments to a historical record may be viewed and saved from
15 the Climate Data tab. That feature is demonstrated in this tutorial. If multiple adjustments are
16 applied to the same data record, the resulting data set incorporating all of the adjustments is not
17 available for viewing and saving until the model run has been made. Accessing this type of
18 modified data is shown in Section 3.4.4 Additional BASINS Tools.
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1 Begin this tutorial by selecting one of the climate adjustments shown on the Climate Data tab
Climate Assessment Tool
File Edit Options Help
Climate Data Assessment Endpoints 1 Results Table 1 Pivot Table 1
Base Scenario |C:\BASINS\Data\Clinnate\base.uci
NewScenario [Modified
Add Remove I Edit
Start Total iterations selected = 1 (0:08)
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1 Next click the View button and a listing of the data set being modified will be displayed
Timeseries List
File Edit View Analysis Help
History 1 from base, wdm
3.072
0.0057794
Max
Mean
Min
Sum
1955/12/31 09:00
1955/12/31 10:00
1955/12/31 11:00
1955/12/31 12:00
1955/12/31 13:00
1955/12/31 14:00
1955/12/31 15:00
1955/12/31 16:00
1955/12/31 17:00
1955/12/31 18:00
1955/12/31 19:00
1955/12/31 20:00
1955/12/31 21:00
1955/12/31 22:00
1955/12/31 23:00
1955/12/31 24:00
1956/01/01 01:00
1956/01/01 02:00
1956/01/01 03:00
1956/01/01 04:00
1956/01/01 05:00
4
From the Time series List form, select the File: Save menu option and a file dialogue form will
allow you to specify the file to which the listing is to be saved. The values will be saved in a tab-
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1 separated format as shown below.
PI TimeseriesJ.ist.tHt - Notepad HQ E3 1
File Edit Format View Help
rlmeserles List
jj
History 1 from base.wdm ^j
Max 3.072
Mean 0.0057794
Mln 0
Sum 1,773.3
1955/12/31 09:00
1955/12/31 10:00
1955/12/31 11:00
1955/12/31 12:00
1955/12/31 13:00
1955/12/31 14:00
1955/12/31 15:00
1955/12/31 16:00
1955/12/31 17:00
1955/12/31 18:00
1955/12/31 19:00
1955/12/31 20:00
1955/12/31 21:00
1955/12/31 22:00
1955/12/31 23:00
1955/12/31 24:00
1956/01/01 01:00
1956/01/01 02:00
1956/01/01 03:00
1956/01/01 04:00
1956/01/01 05:00
1956/01/01 06:00
1956/01/01 07:00
1956/01/01 08:00
1956/01/01 09:00
1956/01/01 10:00
1956/01/01 11:00
1956/01/01 12:00
1956/01/01 13:00
1956/01/01 14:00
1J
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 ,J
-iE
3 To end this session, close the Time series List form.
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i 3.2 Tools for Assessing Environmental Endpoints
2
3 BASINS CAT provides a post-processing capability to calculate hydrologic and water quality
4 endpoints from HSPF output time series. As described in Chapter 2, endpoints may range from
5 simple (e.g. mean streamflow, annual sediment load) to complex (e.g. n-day frequency flow
6 values).
7 The tutorials in this section illustrate how to:
8 Select endpoints to be calculated from HSPF output time series
9 Specify value ranges of concern
10 Specify time periods of concern
11
12 3.2.1 Endpoint Options
13
14 To begin this tutorial, the Climate Assessment Tool form should be displayed with the
15 "\Basins\Data\Climate\base.uci" file as the Base Scenario, "Modified" as the New Scenario,
16 and the "\Basins\Data\Climate\base.wdm" file added to the BASINS project. These
17 specifications are performed in the BASINS-CAT Setup tutorial in Section 3.0, which must be
18 run pri or to thi s tutori al.
19 After defining and selecting the input climate modifications to be used, the next phase of a CAT
20 analysis is the definition of assessment endpoints. This tutorial will demonstrate the basic
21 functionality of assessment endpoint specification. The final result of this tutorial will be the
22 definition of two assessment endpoints: one for flow and one for total nitrogen loading.
23 1. The defining of endpoints is performed through the Assessment Endpoints tab on the
24 CAT form. After clicking on this tab, begin defining a new endpoint by clicking on the
25 Add button. The form contains the controls needed to define an assessment endpoint,
26 including the endpoint name, the dataset to be analyzed, and the attribute of the dataset to
27 be reported. The Endpoint Name field is used to provide a text label for identifying the
28 assessment endpoint being created. Begin defining this endpoint by entering 'Flow' in
29 the Endpoint Name field
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Endpoint Name: JFlow
Data set: j
Attribute: JMean
Highlight Values
Default Color: |white
MinimumValue: |
Color Lower Values: JDeepSkyBlue
M aximum Value: j < none>
Color Higher Values. |OrangeRed
Seasons
f~ Only include values in selected
Ok
Cancel
2 2. Begin defining the data for the endpoint by clicking in the Data set box and the Select
3 data for endpoint form will be displayed. A detailed description of this form is found in
4 steps 2 and 3 of the tutorial in Section 3.1.2.1. In the first column, under the Scenario
5 label, click on the SCEN item and all data sets with a Scenario attribute of SCEN will be
6 added to the Matching Data list. In looking at the last column of the Matching Data
7 list, note the data set with the Constituent name FLOW. Click on this data set and it
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will be added to the Selected Data list. Click the Ok button to close the form.
Select data for endpoint
File Attributes Select Help
"Select Attribute Values to Filter Available Data
(Scenario
OBSERVED
PT-OBS
^2
base
Matching Data (4 of 221 5)
SCEN
SCEN
I Location
015S4526
BELTSVIL
1:101
LAUREL
P:101
SCEN
RCH5
RCH6
RCH5
Selected Data (1 of 2215)
SCEN
RCH5
^J [Constituent
±] AGWET
AGWI
AGWO
AGWS
AIRT
TOTAL-N
SSED
TN-LOAD
FLOW
2
3 3. The Endpoint form has now been updated with a description of the selected Flow data in
4 the Data set box. The Attribute pull-down list contains the attributes available for
5 selection as assessment endpoints. CAT provides a wide array of attributes, from
6 standard statistics (e.g. mean, sum, standard deviation) to duration-frequency statistics
7 (e.g. 7Q10, 100-year flood). For this example, we will specify an endpoint focused on
8 high flow, so select the IHilOO (i.e. 1-day Hi value occurring every 100 years or 100
9 year flood) item from the list.
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i
Endpoint > ! :
Endpoint Name: JFlow
D ata set: | S CE N R CH 5 FLO W tt 1 ,004
Attribute: ]lHigh10Q _^J
Highlight Values
Default Color: (white
Minimum Value: |
Color Lower Values: JDeepSkyBlue
M aximum Value: |
Seasons
V Only include values in selected
Ok Cancel
XI 1
//,
2
3
Click the Ok button to complete defining this endpoint. The Climate Assessment Tool
form will be updated to show the newly defined end point. Begin defining a second
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endpoint by clicking the Add button again.
Climate Assessment Tool
File Edit Options Help
Climate Data Assessment Endpoints ] Results Table j Pivot Table |
r Save All Results
f" Show Progress of Each Run
Add
Remove
Flow1High1QO
Start Total iterations selected = 16 (2:10)
3 5. Now we will define an assessment endpoint for total Nitrogen load. Begin by entering
4 'Total N' in the Endpoint Name field and then click in the Data set box to select the
5 appropriate data set. On the Select data for endpoint form, again click the SCEN item
6 in the Scenario list. From the Matching Data list, click on the data set with a
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2
3
4
5
6
7
constituent name of TN-LOAD. Click the Ok button to close the form.
Select data for endpoint
File Attributes Select Help
"Select Attribute Values to Filter Available Data
(Scenario
OBSERVED
PT-OBS
Matching Data (4 of 2215)
SCEN
SCEN
Selected Data (1 of 2215)
SCEN
RCH5
TN-LOAD
The Endpoint form has now been updated with a description of the selected Flow data in
the Data set box. As opposed to the previous extreme event selected for the flow
endpoint, this endpoint will look to assess annual values. Thus in the Attribute list,
select the SumAnnual item, resulting in an endpoint that reports average annual loads of
total Nitrogen.
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Endpoint
Endpoint Name: [TotalN
Data set: ISCEN RCH5 TN-LOAD tt 1,003
Attribute: [SumAnnual
Highlight Values
Default Color: [White
Minimum Value: |
Color Lower Values: |DeepSkyBlue
Maximum Value: |
Color Higher Values: lOrangeRed
Seasons
|~~ Only include values in selected
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1
2
4
5
6
7
7. Click the Ok button to complete defining this endpoint. The Climate Assessment Tool
form now shows both endpoints defined in this session.
File Edit Options Help
Climate Data Assessment Endpoints I Results Table I Pivot Table
Save All Results
l~ Show Progress of Each Run
Flow1High100
Total N SumAnnual
Start I Total iterations selected = 16 (2:07)
To complete this session, save the state of CAT, using the File: Save Climate and
Endpoints menu option, if desired.
3.2.2 Specify Value Ranges of Concern
9 To begin this tutorial, the Climate Assessment Tool form should be displayed with the
10 "\Basins\Data\Climate\base.uci" file as the Base Scenario, "Modified" as the New Scenario,
11 and the "\Basins\Data\Climate\base.wdm" file added to the BASINS project. These
12 specifications are performed in the BASINS-CAT Setup tutorial in Section 3.0, which must be
13 run pri or to thi s tutori al.
14 BASINS CAT provides a capability to specify ranges of concern for endpoint values. Critically
15 low and/or high values may be entered, along with indicator colors, during endpoint definition.
16 Endpoint values that fall outside of the specified critical range will then be highlighted in the
17 specified indicator color on the results display. This tutorial will demonstrate how to specify
18 value ranges of concern when selecting endpoints.
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1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1. The defining of endpoints is performed through the Assessment Endpoints tab on the
CAT form. After clicking on this tab, begin defining a new endpoint by clicking on the
Add button. The form contains the controls needed to define an assessment endpoint,
including the endpoint name, the data set to be analyzed, and the attribute of the dataset
to be reported. Details of how to define these elements are found in steps 1 through 3 of
the Endpoint Options tutorial in Section 3.2.1. Begin defining this endpoint by entering
'Flow' in the Endpoint Name field. Click in the Data set box to select the data set to be
analyzed. Select the data set with the attributes SCEN RCH5 FLOW from the Select
data for endpoints form. Leave the Attribute field as the default of Mean. The form
should now appear as below.
Endpoint
Endpoint Name: I Flow
Dataset: JSCEN RCH5 FLOW tt 1,004
Attribute: (Mean
Highlight Values
Default Color: (White
Minimum Value: |
Color Lower Values: iDeepSkyBlue
Maximum Value: |
Color Higher Values: lOrangeRed
easons
|~" Only include values in selected
Ok
Cancel
11
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1 2. The highlight feature in CAT is provided as an aid to visually interpreting model output.
2 Specifications for this feature are found in the Highlight Values frame. In this example,
3 we wish to highlight values falling outside of the range from 90 to 150 cfs. Type in '90'
4 for the Minimum Value and '150' for the Maximum Value. Results within the
5 specified range will be displayed in cells with the Default Color background. Results
6 below the Minimum Value will be displayed with the Color Lower Values background.
7 Results above the Maximum Value will be displayed with the Color Higher Values
8 background. Colors for all three ranges may be updated by clicking in the color fields.
Endpoint
Endpoint Name: JFlow
Data set: (SCEN RCH5 FLOW tt 1,004
Attribute: (Mean
Highlight Values
Default Color: (White
Minimum Value: (90
Color Lower Values: iDeepSkyBlue
Maximum Value: (l50
Color H igher Values: (OrangeR ed
Seasons
|~~ Only include values in selected
Ok
Cancel
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1 3. Click the Ok to complete defining of this endpoint. The new created endpoint will be
2 displayed on the Climate Assessment Tool form.
File Edit Options Help
Climate Data Assessment Endpoints I Results Table I Pivot Table
Save All Results
I" Show Progress of Each Run
Flow1High100
0 Total N SumAnnual
0 Flow Mean from 90 to 150
Start I Total iterations selected = 16 (2:07)
5 3.2.3 Specify Time Periods of Concern (Seasonal and/or Partial Records)
6
1 To begin this tutorial, the Climate Assessment Tool form should be displayed with the
8 "\Basins\Data\Climate\base.uci" file as the Base Scenario, "Modified" as the New Scenario,
9 and the "\Basins\Data\Climate\base.wdm" file added to the BASINS project. These
10 specifications are performed in the BASINS-CAT Setup tutorial in Section 3.0, which must be
11 run prior to this tutorial.
12 A specialized feature of CAT assessment endpoints is the ability to specify a subset of time for
13 computation of the endpoint values. This subset may be a select set of months for each year of
14 the model run or a selected year (or years) from the run. Endpoint values will then be computed
15 from only those time intervals that fall within the specified subset. This tutorial will demonstrate
16 how to specify date subsets when defining endpoints.
17 1. The defining of endpoints is performed through the Assessment Endpoints tab on the
18 CAT form. After clicking on this tab, begin defining a new endpoint by clicking on the
19 Add button. The form contains the controls needed to define an assessment endpoint,
20 including the endpoint name, the data set to be analyzed, and the attribute of the dataset
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1
2
3
4
5
6
9
10
11
12
to be reported. Details of how to define these elements are found in steps 1 through 3 of
the Endpoint Options tutorial in Section 3.2.1. Begin defining this endpoint by entering
' Summer Flow' in the Endpoint Name field. Click in the Data set box to select the data
set to be analyzed. Select the data set with the attributes SCEN RCH5 FLOW from the
Select data for endpoints form. This endpoint will look at minimum summer flow, so
select Min from the Attribute list. The form should now appear as below.
" Endpoint
Endpoint Name: Summer Flow
Data set: JSCEN RCH5 FLOW tt 1,004
Attribute: |Min
Highlight Values
Default Color: [White
Minimum Value: |
Color Lower Values: JDeepSkyBlue
Maximum Value: |
Color Higher Values: OrangeR
Seasons
|~~ Only include values in selected
Ok
Cancel
The Seasons frame near the bottom of the form is used for specifying a time subset to be
used when computing the endpoint value. Begin defining this subset by clicking on the
Only include values in selected check box and two additional fields will be displayed.
The first field is a list of time subset options that includes Calendar Years, Months, and
Water Years. The second field will display a list of available time intervals based on the
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1
2
3
4
5
6
7
item selected in the first field. For example, selecting Water Years from the first field
will populate the second field with a list of available water years based on the period of
record of the data set. For this example, select the Months option and the second field
will be populated with the months of the year. Items in the second field may be selected
and deselected by clicking on them. Additionally, the buttons below the list may be used
to select All or None of the items. To report endpoint values during summer months,
select Jun, Jul, and Aug.
Endpoint
Endpoint Name: |Summer Flow
Data set: (SCEN RCH5 FLOW tt 1,004
Attribute:
Highlight Values
vim
Default Color: (White
Minimum Value: |
Color Lower Values: iDeepSkyBlue
Maximum Value: |
Color Higher Values: lOrangeRed
Seasons
Only include values in selected |Months
All
Ok
Cancel
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1 3. Click the Ok to complete defining of this endpoint. The newly created endpoint will be
2 displayed on the Climate Assessment Tool form.
File Edit Options Help
Climate Data Assessment Endpoints I Results Table I Pivot Table
Save All Results
I" Show Progress of Each Run
0 Flow1High100
0 Total N SumAnnual
0 Flow Mean from 90 to 150
0 Summer Flow Min Month: Jun JulAug
Start I Total iterations selected = 16 (2:07)
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1
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5
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8
9
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12
13
14
15
16
17
3.3 Running an HSPF Simulation Using BASINS CAT
To begin this tutorial, at least one climate scenario and one environmental endpoint must be
defined. Climate change scenarios are defined by selecting any number of climate adjustments
developed in the tutorials under Section 3.1. Environmental endpoints are defined in the tutorials
under Section 3.2.
This tutorial will show how to run a climate assessment using a climate scenario and
environmental endpoints. Although this tutorial references climate adjustments and
environmental endpoints defined in specific tutorials, it is possible to perform this tutorial using
other adjustments and endpoints.
1. The first step in performing an assessment is to define the climate scenario(s) to be run by
the model. The tutorial in Section 3.1.3 provides examples of this task. Using that
tutorial's first scenario as an example, go to the Climate Data tab and select the two
climate adjustments shown below to build a climate scenario for this assessment. (Note:
If you did not perform the tutorials that developed these climate adjustments, you may
select other adjustments to build a different climate scenario and continue with this
exercise.)
Climate Assessment Tool
File
18
Assessment Endpoints
Base Scenario |C:\BASINS\Data\Climate\base.uci
N ew S cenario Modified
0 Increase Precip Multiply 1.2
Seasonal Precip Multiply 1.2 Month: Jun Jul Aug
Partial Precip Multiply 0.8 Water Year: 1986
Storm Intensity Intensify 10
Storm Frequency AddE vents 10 Month: Mar Apr May
TennpCool Season Add 2 Month: JanFeb Mar Apr NovDec
Temp Warm Season Add 4 Month: May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
D Partial Temp Add 3 Water Year: 1986
Synthetic Temp Add from 0 to 3 step 1
I Synthetic Precip Multiply from 1 to 1.3 step 0.1
Start Total iterations selected = 1 (0:08)
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1
2
3
4
5
2.
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
3.
The next step in performing an assessment is selecting environmental endpoints of
interest. Any number of endpoints may be selected for output from the model run(s). For
this example, go to the Assessment Endpoints tab and select the endpoints shown below.
(Note: If you did not perform the tutorials that developed these endpoints, you may select
other endpoints and continue with this exercise.)
Climate Assessment Tool
File Edit Options Help
Climate Data [^sKsment Endpointsj| Results Table | Pivot Table ]
f~ Save All Results
|~" Show Progress of Each Run
0 FlowlHighlOO
0 Total N SumAnnual
Summer Flow Min Month: Jun Jul Aug
Start Total iterations selected = 1 (0:08)
Before model execution, two additional options on the Assessment Endpoints tab may
be set: Save All Results and Show Progress of Each Run. The Save All Results check
box is used to set whether or not all model output is saved, not just the assessment
endpoint values. Checking this box will save a new set of output results in the same
manner as the original output. The text from the New Scenario field on the Climate
Data tab will be used as the base file name for the new output files. When saving results
from synthetic scenarios, this base name will also have model run number added to it (i.e.
"modified-1", "modified-2", etc.). The Show Progress of Each Run check box is used
to set whether or not a status monitor will be displayed while the model is running. If a
model run is particularly long, or a series of model runs are being made using synthetic
data, checking this box can be useful to see the progress of the model run(s). For this
example, leave these two boxes unchecked. Click the Start button to make the model
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run and see the endpoint results.
Climate Assessment Tool
File Edit Options Help
Climate Data | Assessment Endpoints Results Table pjyot Table ]
Run Increase Precip Temperature Flow Total N Flow
Multiply Add 1High100 SumAnnual Mean
Current Value Current Value SCENRCH5FLOW SCEN RCH5 TN-LOAD SCENRCH5FLOW
1 1.2
2
3
Start Finished with 1 runs
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i 3.4 Tools for Summarizing and Visualizing Results
3 As a component of the BASINS system, BASINS CAT has a variety of output capabilities useful
4 for summarizing and visualizing the results of HSPF simulations. The CAT interface provides
5 standard tabular (results table) and pivot table options. Additional graphics and data listings are
6 also available from within the BASINS system.
7 The tutorials in this section illustrate the following output capabilities:
8 Results Tables - CAT's tabular output of assessment endpoint values
9 Pivot Tables - CAT's pivot table output of assessment endpoint values
10 Exporting Results - output of assessment endpoint values to files in a format that can be
11 analyzed or visualized using external software
12 Additional BASINS Tools - analysis and display features available in BASINS
13
14 3.4.1 Results Tables
15
16 To begin this tutorial, at least one climate scenario and one environmental endpoint must be
17 defined. Climate change scenarios are defined by selecting any number of climate adjustments
18 developed in the tutorials under Section 3.1. Environmental endpoints are defined in the tutorials
19 under Section 3.2.
20 This tutorial will demonstrate CAT's standard tabular output capabilities by running an
21 assessment. Although this tutorial references climate adjustments and environmental endpoints
22 developed in specific tutorials, it is possible perform this tutorial using other adjustments and
23 endpoints.
24 1. Begin this example by defining a climate scenario. Following the second example from
25 the tutorial in Section 3.1.3, go to the Climate Data tab and select the climate
26 adjustments shown below. (Note: If you did not perform the tutorials that developed
27 these climate adjustments, you may select other adjustments to build a different climate
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scenario and continue with this exercise.)
Climate Assessment Tool
File Edit Options Help
Climate Data Assessment Endpoints 1 Results Table 1 Pivot Table 1
Base Scenario |C:\BASINS\Data\Clinnate\base.uci
New Scenario
| Modified
n Increase Precip Multiply 1.2
n Seasonal Precip Multiply 1.2 Month: Jun Jul Aug
0 Partial Precip Multiply 0.8 Water Year: 1986
n Storm Intensity Intensify 10
D Storm Frequency AddE vents 10 Month: Mar Apr May
n Temperature Add 2
n Temp Cool Season Add 2 Month: Jan Feb Mar Apr Nov Dec
n Temp Warm Season Add 4 Month: May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
H Partial Temp Add 3 Water Year: 1386
Synthetic Tennp Add from 0 to 3 step 1
Synthetic Precip Multiply from 1 to 1.3 step 0.1
Start Total iterations selected = 1 (0:08)
3 2. Now select the environmental endpoints of interest for this assessment. For this example,
4 go to the Assessment Endpoints tab and select the endpoints shown below. (Note: If
5 you did not perform the tutorials that developed these endpoints, you may select other
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endpoints and continue with this exercise.)
Climate Assessment Tool
File Edit Options Help
Climate Data Assessment Endpoints | Results Table ] Pivot Table
f~ Save All Results
|~" Show Progress of Each Run
FlowlHighlOO
0 Total N SumAnnual
Flow Mean from 90 to 150
Start Total iterations selected = 1 (0:08)
3 3. To execute the model run for this assessment, click the Start button at the bottom of the
4 form. When the model has completed, CAT will report the resulting endpoint values on
5 the Results Table tab. The CAT form may be resized to show all resulting values at the
6 same time. Note that for this assessment, the average flow value falls below the
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minimum value of concern specified for that endpoint.
3
4
5
6
Climate Assessment Tool
File Edit Options Help
Climate Data | Assessment Endpoints Results Table pjvot Table ]
Run Partial Precip
Multiply
Current Value
WaterYear(1986;
1 0.8
Partial Temp
Add
Current Value
WaterYear(1986)
3
Total N
SumAnnual
SCENRCH5TN-LOAD
289,260
Flow Summer Flow
Mean Min
SCEN RCH5 FLOW SCEN RCH5 FLOW
Month (Jun JulAug)
81.142 110.109
Start Finished with 1 runs
Output tables in CAT may also be saved to an external file for use outside of the
program. Choose the Save Results item from the File menu and a dialogue form will
prompt for the file name in which the results are to be saved. Results are saved in a tab-
delimited format, suitable for import into Excel and other analysis programs.
8 3.4.2 Pivot Tables
9
10 A pivot table is a data visualization and mining tool that allows users to reorganize selected
11 columns and rows of data within a database. The term pivot refers to turning the data to view it
12 from different perspectives. Pivot tables are especially useful for summarizing large amounts of
13 data in a compact format, looking for patterns and relationships within a dataset, and organizing
14 data into a format suitable for plotting data as a chart.
15 To perform this tutorial, the tutorial in Section 3.1.4 must have been run to create synthetic
16 climate change scenarios for precipitation and temperature. Additionally at least one
17 environmental endpoint must be defined. Environmental endpoints are defined in the tutorials
18 under Section 3.2.
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1
2
4
5
6
7
This tutorial will demonstrate CAT's pivot table output capabilities by running an assessment.
The pivot table feature provides flexibility in displaying multiple sets of results produced when
running synthetic climate change scenarios.
1. Begin this example by defining a climate scenario. On the Climate Data tab select the
two synthetic climate change scenarios developed in Section 3.1.4, as shown below.
Note that since each synthetic scenario has four iterations, a total of 16 model runs will
be made, one for each unique precipitation and temperature value.
9
10
11
2.
Base Scenario | C AB AS IN S VD ata\Climate\base. uci
New Scenario
Remove
File Edit Options Help
Climate Data | Assessment Endpoints ] Results Table | Pivot Table
n Increase Precip Multiply 1.2
n Seasonal Precip Multiply 1.2 Month: Jun Jul Aug
D Partial Precip Multiply 0.8 Water Year: 1986
D Storm Intensity Intensify 10
n Storm Frequency AddE vents 10 Month: Mar Apr May
n Temperature Add 2
n Ternp Cool Season Add 2 Month: Jan Feb Mar Apr Nov Dec
n Temp Warm Season Add 4 Month: May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
D Partial Temp Add 3 Water Year: 1986
0 Synthetic Temp Add from 0 to 3 step 1
|Hl Synthetic Precip Multiply from 1 to 1.3 step 0.1
Start | Total iterations selected = 16 (2:21)
Now select the environmental endpoints of interest for this assessment. For this example,
go to the Assessment Endpoints tab and select the endpoints shown below. (Note: If
you did not perform the tutorials that developed these endpoints, you may select other
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endpoints and continue with this exercise.)
Climate Assessment Tool
File Edit Options Help
Climate Data Assessment Endpoints Results Table Pivot Table
|~ Save All Results
Show Progress of Each Run
Add | Remove | Edit | Copy
0 FlowlHighlOO
0 Total N SumAnnual
Summer Flow Min Month: Jun Jul Aug
Start Total iterations selected = 16 (2:21)
3 3. Since this assessment will involved 16 model runs, it is advisable to "check on" the Show
4 Progress of Each Run option. To execute the model run for this assessment, click the
5 Start button at the bottom of the form. When the model has completed, CAT will report
6 the resulting endpoint values on the Results Table tab. Now click on the Pivot Table
7 tab to explore additional CAT output features. The first two fields of this form are used
8 to specify what element to vary in the Rows and Columns of the pivot table. For this
9 exercise, select Synthetic Temp Add Current Value and Synthetic Precip Add
10 Current Value for the Rows and Columns field values. The Cells field is used to
11 specify what element will be displayed in the pivot table's cells. Select Flow Mean
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3
4
5
6
SCEN RCH5 FLOW for this field and the resulting pivot table will appear as follows.
Climate Assessment Tool
File Edit Options Help
Climate Data 1 Assessment Endpoints 1 Results Table Pivot Table
R ows Synthetic T emp Add Current Value)
Columns [Synthetic Precip Multiply Current Value
Cells (Flow Mean SCEN R CHS FLOW
1
95.307
92.751
90.238
87.7E
1.1
114.23
111.44
108.69
105.98
1.2
133.75
130.79
127.8
124.85
Start Finished with 16 runs
Note that some of the flow values fall below or above the minimum and maximum values
of concern that were specified when defining this endpoint. As desired, familiarize
yourself with the pivot table's capabilities by changing the selections in the 3 fields above
the table.
8
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10
11
12
13
14
3.4.3 Exporting Results for Use With External Software
To perform this tutorial, it is necessary to complete the previous Pivot Tables tutorial in Section
3.4.2. This tutorial continues the assessment performed in the previous section where synthetic
temperature and precipitation scenarios were run and a pivot table of the results was created.
This tutorial will demonstrate how results from CAT can be exported for analysis or data
visualization using external software.
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1. This tutorial begins with the final step of the previous tutorial, which should be the
display of a pivot table on the CAT form.
Climate Assessment Tool | !(] EJ
File Edit Options Help
Climate Data | Assessment Endpoints | Results Table Pivot Table
Rows | Synthetic T emp Add Current Value)
Columns I Synthetic Precip Multiply Current Value
Cells |FlowMeanSCENRCH5FLQW
114.23
111.44
108.69
105.98
144.33
Start Finished with 16 runs
2. Output results from both the Results Table and the Pivot Tables may be saved to an
external file. Use the File menu to access options for saving either table. A file dialogue
will then prompt for the name of the output file. The results will be saved in a tab-
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delimited format, which are readily imported into Excel and other analysis packages
Climate Assessment Tool
Start Finished with 16 runs
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3. In the same manner, results from both tables may also be copied to the clipboard. The
results may then be directly pasted into an external program.
Climate Assessment Tool
File Edit Options Help
ajm Copy Results | E ndpoints 1 R esd[s T abb Pivot T ab|e
Copy Pivot
Paste Results lie Temp Add Current Value
Columns |Synthetic Precip Multiply Current Value
Cells (Flow Mean SCENRCH5 FLOW
Start Finished with 16 runs
Using either of the above exporting capabilities, results from HSPF simulations conducted using
BASINS CAT can be exported for analysis and/or visualization using any external software.
i.4.4 Additional BASINS Tools
9 To begin this tutorial, at least one climate scenario and one environmental endpoint must be
10 defined. Climate change scenarios are defined by selecting any number of climate adjustments
11 developed in the tutorials under Section 3.1. Environmental endpoints are defined in the tutorials
12 under Section 3.2.
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1
2
3
4
5
6
7
This tutorial will demonstrate how to access additional output and analysis capabilities in
BASINS that can aid in an assessment. Although this tutorial references climate adjustments and
environmental endpoints developed in specific tutorials, it is possible perform this tutorial using
other adjustments and endpoints.
10
11
12
13
14
1.
2.
Begin this example by defining a climate scenario. For this example a simple scenario of
intensifying precipitation will be used as shown below. (Note: If you did not perform the
tutorial that developed this climate adjustment, you may select another adjustment to
build a different climate scenario and continue with this exercise.)
Climate Assessment Tool
File Edit Options Help
Climate Data | Assessment Endpoints 1 Results Table | Pivot Table |
Base Scenario |C:\BASINS\Data\Climate\base.uci
N ew S cenario [Modified
Remove Edit View Prepared
Increase Precip Multiply 1.2
Seasonal Precip Multiply 1.2 Month: Jun Jul Aug
Partial Precip Multiply 0.8 Water Year: 1986
Storm Intensity Inten;
n Storm Frequency AddE vents 10 Month: Mar Apr May
n Temperature Add 2
D TempCool SeasonAdd 2Month: JanFeb MarApr NovDec
n Temp Warm Season Add 4 Month: May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
D Partial Temp Add 3 Water Year: 1986
n Synthetic Temp Add from 0 to 3 step 1
n Synthetic Precip Multiply from 1 to 1.3 step 0.1
Start Total iterations selected = 1 (0:08)
Now select the environmental endpoints of interest for this assessment. This example
will focus on total nitrogen loads, so go to the Assessment Endpoints tab and select the
endpoints shown below. (Note: If you did not perform the tutorials that developed these
endpoints, you may select other endpoints and continue with this exercise.) This exercise
will demonstrate further analysis capabilities within BASINS, so be sure the "Save All
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Results" option is on
Climate Assessment Tool
File Edit Options Help
Climate Data Assessment Endpoints Results Table Pivot Table
Save All Results
V Show Progress of Each Run
FlowlHighlOO
0 Total N SumAnnual
Summer Flow Min Month: Jun Jul Aug
Start Total iterations selected = 1 (0:08)
3 3. To execute the model run for this assessment, click the Start button at the bottom of the
4 form. When the model has completed, CAT will report the resulting endpoint values on
5 the Results Table tab. To begin using BASINS analysis tools, return to the main
6 BASINS form and select the Manage Data option from the File menu. The Data
7 Sources form shows the data sources that are currently open, these being the WDM and
8 binary output (hbn) file from the Base run. From here the results from the modified
9 climate scenario may be loaded into the current BASINS project. Begin this process by
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clicking the Open File button.
Data Sources
Open File... New File... Close Selected Display Selected
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3.0 Tutorials
Data Sources form should now list this WDM file along with the 'Base' files
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Open File... New File... Close Selected Display Selected
(0)
|Tirneseries::HSPF Binary Output C:\BASINS\Data\Climate\base.hbn (2173)
Timeseries::WDM C:\BASINS\Data\Climate\base.wdm (42)
Timeseries::WDM
C: \BAS IN S \D ata\airnate\M odified-1. base, wdrn
42 Timeseries
1,802,240 bytes
Modified 3/27/2008 5:00:17PM
The Data Sources window may now be closed. The Analysis menu contains a variety of
features to aid in assessment. To view the daily Nitrogen loads, select the List option
from this menu and you will be prompted for the data sets to be listed. In the third
column, labeled Constituent, scroll down and select the TN-LOAD item. Two data sets
with the same Scenario, Location, and Constituent are available. To distinguish
between the two it is necessary to change the attribute listed in one of the three columns.
Go to the first column, labeled Scenario, and click the pull-down list at the top of the
column. Scroll up the list and select the Data Source attribute, which will show the file
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name of each data set.
Select Data
File Attributes Select Help
Select Attribute Values to Filter Available Data
Data Source
El
C:\BASINS\D ata\Climate\M odif ied-+
C:\BASINS\Data\Climate\base.hbn
C:\BASINS\D ata\Climate\base. wdm
Location
01594526
BELTSVIL
1:101
Matching Data (2 of 2263)
C:\BASINS\Data\Climate\base.wdm
I: \BAS IN S \D ataVCIimateW odified-+
Selected Data
Dates to Include
All Common |
Start none
End none
Ok
Cancel
3 7. Clicking the Ok will automatically select the two Matching data sets and generate the
4 listing of the data sets' values. A variety of attributes are available for display at the top
5 of the listing. These are accessed through the FilerSelect Attributes menu option.
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Select this option and customize the listing as desired
4
5
6
Timeseries Li
File Edit View
Data Source
Max
Mean
Min
Sum
SumAnnual
1985/10/01 24:00
1935/10/0224:00
1985/10/0324:00
1985/10/0424:00
1985/10/0524:00
1985/10/0624:00
1985/10/0724:00
1985/10/0824:00
1985/10/0824:00
1985/10/1024:00
1985/10/11 24:00
1985/10/1224:00
1985/10/1324:00
1985/10/1424:00
1985/10/1524:00
1985/10/1624:00
1985/10/1724:00
1985/10/1824:00
1985/10/1824:00
1985/10/2024:00
st
Analysis Help
C: \BAS I N S \D ata\Climate\base. wdm
11,020
625.49
3.9019
685,540
223,510
163.58
849.26
11,020
267.79
604.84
679.62
601.42
522.34
259.36
118.9
94.873
239.72
141.76
469.52
390.83
148.28
172.96
121.37
52.456
101.61
E
CABAS I N S \D ata\Climate\M odified-1 . base, wdm
11,504
713.03
4.3894
781 ,480
260,490
163.58
1,006.4
11,504
278.6
650.71
727.14
641.71
556.37
276.52
127.79
101.83
256.34
150.43
476.14
393.01
155.77
181.99
127.5
54.957
106.07
|n|x|
4
^mi
J
The Analysis menu on the Time series List form contains many of the same analysis
functions as the main BASINS form. Select the Graph option from the Analysis menu
and the Choose Graphs to Create form is displayed. To see two examples of different
graphs, select the Time series and Running Sum graphs and then click the Generate
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button.
File Edit View Analysis Coordinates Help
inns
1986
1987
RCHS
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1
2
9. BASINS graphs may be manipulated in a variety of ways including resizing, zooming,
and customizing the various graph components.
Running Sum Graph
File Edit View Analysis (1986 May 11, 793,070) Help
800
700
600
o
o 500
400
en
300
200
100
1986 1987
Running Sums at RCHS
1988
4
5
6
1
10. Along with listing and graphing, BASINS contains many other time series analysis
features including duration-frequency computations, seasonal statistic computation,
generation of additional time series from existing time series, and creation of time series
of distinct events that are above or below a threshold.
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7
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16
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19
3.5 Using Scripts to Automate CAT Applications
This tutorial is run from the main BASINS form and requires no actual CAT interaction. The
purpose of this tutorial is to demonstrate how to run scripts from BASINS to perform CAT
functions. Scripts provide a way to automate repetitive tasks in CAT and also leave a track
record of how procedures were accomplished.
Begin this tutorial by leaving the CAT form and returning to the main BASINS form. Scripts
written in .Net programming languages such as VB.Net or C# may be accessed and run from the
BASINS interface. Select the Scripts... option from the Plug-ins menu and the MapWindow
Scripts form will be displayed.
J9 MapWindow Scripts
File Execute Online Script Directory Help
Language
P VB.Net
Ctt
Output
Script P Plug-in
1
2
3
'!:
5
6
J
9
10
1.1.
12
13
Imports MapUindow.Interfaces
Imports MapUinGIS
Imports System.Windows.Forms
Imports Microsoft.VisualBasic
Imports System
'Each script should (tout doesn't have to) have a unique name.
Public Hodule HyExample
Public Sub ScriptMain(ByRef m_HapUin As IHapUin)
mapwinutility.logger.msg("This is a simple script to displ
mapwinutility.logger.msg("Number of Layers: " £ m_HapUin.L
End Sub
End Hodule
Ready
This form provides an interface to open or save existing scripts or to start a new script using the
File menu or the icons below the menu bar. The Execute option allows for a script to be run or
for a script to be compiled as a plug-in for use in MapWindow/BASINS. Access to an online
repository of scripts is also provided through the Online Script Directory.
The code below shows a simple script that performs basic CAT functions. After a number of
declarations ("Const" and "Dim" statements), the WDM file is opened (variable "lOriginalData")
and the data set to be modified is set (variable "lOriginalPrecip"). The climate variations for this
assessment are then specified (variable "IVariation"), including the "Name", the "Operation"
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1 type, the "Min" and "Max" value, and the "Increment". In this case, there will only be one
2 variation, an increase of 10% (i.e. Multiply by 1.1) to the historical precipitation record. The
3 assessment is then run with a call to "modCAT.ScenarioRun" and the model output time series
4 are stored in the variable "IResults". Lastly, the script simply reports the count of output time
5 series. The script could readily be expanded to extract more detailed information out of the
6 resulting time series.
l-e~ Map Window Scripts
HHQ
File Execute Online Script Directory Help
D
[
li
|2
3
4
S
6
I7
8
9
10
1 1
12
>EI > <>= 0
iguage Output
VB.Met r Ctt ff Script T Plug-in
[imports MapWindow. Interfaces
Imports MapWinUtility
Imports atclltility
Imports ate Data
Imports at cClimate Assessment Tool
Imports atcUDM
Module Climate Assessment FromScript
Private Const pTestPath As String
Private Const pBaseName As String
Private Const pScenName As String
= "D : \ Basins\ data\ Climate"
= "base"
= "scriptDemo"
13 1
14
! '=.
Public Sub ScriptMainfByRef aMapUin As IMapTJin)
Dim IResults As New atcCollection
16 |
17
IB
ChDriveDir (pTestPath)
1 -- Dim lOriginalData As New atcDataSourceTJDH
20
lOriginalData. Open (pBaseName £ " . wdm")
_ i Dim lOriginalPrecip As atcTimeseries = lOriginalData. DataSets. FindData ( "ID", "105") . Item (0)
22
2 5
Dim IVariation As New atcVariation
24 : With IVariation
|2S
12 f
27
za
29
n
33
.;:
36
37
1
, DataSets . Add ( lOriginalPrecip)
.Name = "Adjust Precip"
. C omp ut at i o nS o ur c e = Ne w at c T ime series Mat h . at c T ime series Mat h
Min ~ 1
. Max = 1.1
. Increment = 0.1
im 01 le aa sacs
IResults modC AT . Scenar ic
Logger . Dbg ( " Al ID one : " S 11
End With
End Sub
End Module
itaGroup = . Start Iteration ( )
Run (pBaseName £ ". uci", pScenName, IModif i
results . Count)
'
edData, " " , True , Tr ue , True )
,j
i >\
Ready
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4.0 CAT User's Manual
i 4.0 CAT User's Manual
3 The BASINS Climate Assessment Tool (CAT) provides a flexible set of capabilities for
4 representing and exploring climate change and its relationship to watershed science. Tools have
5 been integrated into the BASINS system allowing users to create climate change scenarios by
6 modifying historical weather data, and to use these data as the meteorological inputs to the
7 Hydrological Simulation Program - FORTRAN (HSPF) watershed model. A capability is also
8 provided to calculate specific hydrologic and water quality endpoints important to watershed
9 management based on HSPF model output (e.g. the 100-year flood or 7Q10 low flow event).
10 Finally, the CAT can be used to assess the outcomes of a single climate change scenario, or to
11 automate multiple HSPF runs to determine the sensitivity or general pattern of watershed
12 response to different types and amounts of climate change.
13 Users can modify historical climate data using standard arithmetic operators applied monthly,
14 seasonally or over any other increment of time. Increases or decreases in a climate variable
15 (precipitation, air temperature) can be applied uniformly, or they can be selectively imposed on
16 only those historical events that exceed (or fall below) a specified magnitude. This capability
17 allows changes to be imposed only on events within user-defined size classes, and can be used to
18 represent the projected effects of 'intensification' of the hydrologic cycle, whereby larger
19 precipitation events intensify, instead of events becoming more frequent. In addition, users are
20 able to create time series that contain more frequent precipitation events. These capabilities
21 provide users with an ability to represent and assess the impacts of a wide range of potential
22 future climatic conditions and events.
23 BASINS CAT does not provide climate change scenario data. Rather, the tool provides a
24 capability for quickly creating and running climate change scenarios within the BASINS system.
25 Diverse sources of information such as records of historical and paleo-extreme events, observed
26 trends, and projections based on global or regional scale climate models can be used to guide
27 scenario development. Data requirements will vary depending on assessment goals. BASINS
28 CAT provides capabilities to support a range of assessment goals, e.g. simple screening analysis,
29 systematic sensitivity analysis, or implementing more detailed scenarios based on climate model
30 projections. Other resources are available to support users with scenario development and
31 climate change impact assessment.
32 To activate CAT, first confirm that the Climate Assessment Tool is checked on the Plug-
33 insrAnalysis menu on the main BASINS window.
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BASINS 4 02060006*
File Compute Analysis Models
T?[
2002 Tiger MiscGroind 0206A/ ^
|J 2002 Tiger Railroad Q2Q5COQ A/
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BD Soil, Land UseJCover
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D LandUseerlay Q
BD Other
D trial
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Plug-ins | Watershed Delineation CIS Tools
Edit Plug-ins
Scripts...
Help
Analysis
Archive Project Tool
BASINS 4
CSV to Shapefile Converter
GIS Tools
Manual Delineation
Model Setup (HSPF/AQLIATOX)
Pollutant Loading Estimator (PLOAD)
Shapefile Editor
Timeseries
Watershed Delineation
Cligen
* Climate Assessment Tool
Data Tree
Frequency Grid
Graph
^ List
^] Lookup Tables
^] Reclassify Land Use
Seasonal Attributes
Synoptic
Watershed Characterization Reports
2 From the main BASINS window, CAT is opened by first clicking Analysis on the BASINS
3 menu bar, then Climate Assessment Tool on the submenu (or typing ALT-AC).
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BASINS 4
File Compute
D
Legend
i
2
Preview Map
Analysis Models Edit View Plug-ins Waters!"
ArcView 3
ArcGIS
GenScn
WDMUtil
Climate Assessment Tool
Data Tree
Frequency Grid
Graph
List
Seasonal Attributes
Synoptic
Watershed Characterization Reports
Reclassify Land Use
Projection Parameters
STORET Agency Codes
Standard Industrial Classification Codes
Water Quality Criteria 304a
The main CAT window opens. It contains a menu bar, four tabs and the Start button.
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. Climate Assessment Tool
File Edit Options Help
Qimate Data j fesessment Endpoints j Results Table ] Pivot Table |
Base Scenario | cclick to select ;=
New Scenario (Modified
Asd Remove I Edit
Start
2 Menu Options
3 On the Climate Assessment Tool menu, the File menu option includes choices to Open a HSPF
4 UCI file, Load or Save Climate and Endpoints, Load or Save Results, or to Save Pivot
5 Table
6 The Edit menu option includes choices to Copy Results, to copy the results table, or Copy
7 Pivot, to copy the pivot table. Both options allow this information to be pasted into another
8 document (such as Word or Excel). Finally, the Paste Results option allows the user to paste
9 old results (from another document) into CAT to view them in the table format, if desired.
10 Under the Options menu option, the user can choose whether only the data is copied, or whether
11 the data and table headings are copied.
12 Tabs
13 The Climate Data tab allows the user to create climate change scenarios by selecting existing
14 weather time series to be modified, and implementing one or more changes. The Assessment
15 Endpoints tab allows the user to specify the hydrologic and water quality endpoints to be
16 calculated from model output. The Results Table and Pivot Table tabs are for viewing model
17 output including hydrologic and water quality endpoints computed by the model.
18 Start Button
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4.0 CAT User's Manual
1 At least one climate scenario and one assessment endpoint are necessary to run the Climate
2 Assessment Tool. After selecting all climate data and endpoints desired, press the Start button
3 at the bottom of the main CAT window. Further details on running CAT are provided in the
4 Running an Assessment section.
5 Total Iterations Selected
6 Once the desired climate adjustments have been specified, the Total Iterations Selected shown
7 at the bottom of the window indicates the number ofHSPF runs to complete the task. This
8 number can range from 1 when running a single scenario, to greater than 1 when automating
9 multiple runs using synthetic climate change scenarios to determine sensitivity to a range of
10 different climate adjustments.
11 The Climate Assessment Tool makes a separate HSPF run for each distinct combination of input
12 data specified by the user. After the model runs, model output endpoints for each run are
13 displayed so that the user may analyze the impacts of varying input data. Optionally, the user
14 may save the model output to an external file for further analysis.
15 A detailed tutorial is available for the Climate Assessment Tool.
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4.1 Climate Data
Climate Assessment Tool
File Edit Options Help
Climate Data j .Assessment Endpoints ] Results Table | Pivot Table |
-iDlxll
Base Scenario | sclick to select >
New Scenario [Modified
Add Remove) Edit View | Prepared |
Start
The Climate Data tab is the main window for managing changes to input time series data (i.e.
weather data). Through this tab users are able to create climate change scenarios by selecting an
existing input time series to be modified, and implementing one or more changes to create a new
scenario(s).
The Base Scenario field contains the HSPF model User Control Input (UCI) file. When the
model is run, a modified UCI file will be created, using the name in the New Scenario field as
the base portion of the file name.
11 Add Button
12 Clicking the Add button on the Climate Data tab of the CAT form will display the Modify
13 Existing Data form. This form contains the controls needed to define a climate adjustment,
14 including an identification label, the dataset(s) to be modified, and how the data are to be
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4.0 CAT User's Manual
1 modified. The screen shown below exhibits all features of the form.
3
4
5
6
7
Modify Existing Data
Modification Name:
I Storm Frequency
E xisting D ata to M odify: [OBSERVED UPMARLBR HPRECIPW105
Compute PET:
How to Modify:
View
|
View
Add/Remove Storm Events
Percent Change in Volume
f* Single Change (~~ Iterate Changes
Value
Events
Vary precipitation only in the following Events
Hourly intensity above |0.1 in/hr
Allow gaps up to [0 hours
Total volume above [0 inches
Total duration above |0 hours
Seasons
Vary only in selected Months
Nov
Dec
The Modification Name field is used to provide a text label for identifying the scenario being
created. The Existing Data to Modify field is used to select the historical data to which the
adjustment will be made. When modifying temperature data, the Compute PET field is used to
select the potential evapotranspiration data set that will be re-computed using the modified
temperature data as input to Hamon's PET estimation method. The How to Modify field is a
pull-down list of options for how the data are to be adjusted. The options include:
Changing the temperature
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1 Multiplying existing values by a number
2 Adding/Removing storm events
3 Adding/Removing volume in extreme events
4 Depending on the option selected, the frame below the How to Modify field is updated to input
5 the quantity of the change (e.g. +/- degrees, % change in precipitation depth). In this frame,
6 there are two modification options: Single Change or Iterate Changes. The term 'iterate' as
7 used here refers to the automation of multiple runs. The Single Change option will result in one
8 adjustment applied to the data set being modified. The Iterate Changes option will result in a
9 range of adjustments to the data set and is used to create "synthetic" climate change scenarios.
10 To create and run synthetic scenarios, users specify the desired type of change, the range of
11 values to be considered, and the step interval between successive trials. For example, a user can
12 specify an increase in average annual temperature from 0 to 3 degrees at a step interval of 1
13 degree (units dependent on original data set). CAT would then automate the creation and
14 processing of four input time series (i.e. reflecting average annual temperature increases of 0, 1,
15 2, and 3 degrees) for input as distinct model runs. When 2 or more sets of synthetic scenarios are
16 specified, CAT will systematically create scenarios and assess each possible combination of
17 specified values. For example, if the above temperature change were specified together with
18 changes in annual precipitation from 0 to 30 percent with a step interval of 10 percent (i.e.
19 changes of 0, 10, 20, and 30%), CAT would automate the creation and processing of 4 * 4 = 16
20 climate change scenarios reflecting each possible combination of values.
21 The Events frame is used to define what precipitation events are considered to be storms when
22 either Adding/Removing storm events or Adding/Removing volume in extreme events. When the
23 Vary precipitation only in the following Events checkbox is selected, a set of four elements
24 are made visible for defining storms. The Hourly intensity above field specifies the minimum
25 hourly precipitation value (or series of values) that is considered to be an event. The Allow gaps
26 up to field defines the number of hours allowed between two sets of storm events to consider
27 them all one event. The Total volume above field specifies the minimum amount of total
28 volume in an overall event for the event to be considered a storm. The Total duration above
29 field defines the minimum number of hours of consecutive storm values for the values to be
30 considered a storm. When Adding/Removing volume in extreme events, an additional field,
31 Change ... % of events, is provided in the frame to specify the percentage of events to change.
32 Leaving this field blank will result in the specified volume change being applied to all qualifying
33 events. Entering a percentage value will result in the volume change being applied to the highest
34 storms that total that percentage of the data set's volume.
35 The Seasons frame near the bottom of the form is used for specifying a time subset of the data
36 set to which the modification will be applied. To specify a season, click on the Vary only in
37 selected check box and two additional fields will be displayed. The first field is a list of time
38 subset options that includes Calendar Years, Months, and Water Years. The second field will
39 display a list of available time intervals based on the item selected in the first field. For example,
40 selecting Water Years from the first field will populate the second field with a list of available
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water years based on the period of record of the data set. Items in the second field may be
selected and deselected by clicking on them. Additionally, the buttons below the list may be
used to select All or None of the items.
As new climate adjustments are created, they are added to the text box on the Climate Data tab.
Each new scenario can be composed of multiple adjustments to an input time series. By
combining multiple adjustments, a wide range of climate change scenarios of varying complexity
can be created. After adding an adjustment, it will appear as a line item in the text box below.
Checking the box will apply the change to the input series when running CAT. Unchecking the
box will cause the change to be ignored when running CAT. When multiple changes are applied
to an input data set, the changes are implemented in the order they are listed in the text box. This
order can be modified through use of the up and down arrows above the list. As adjustments are
checked and unchecked, the total number of climate change scenarios is computed. This number
is displayed as the Total iterations selected at the bottom of the form next to the Start button.
Climate Assessment Tool
File Edit Options Help
Climate Data | Assessment Endpoints | Results Table | Pivot Table |
Base Scenario |C:\BASINS\Data\Climate\base.uci
New Scenario [Modified
n Increase Precip Multiply 1.2
G Seasonal Precip Multiply 1.2 Month: Jun Jul Aug
D Partial Precip Multiply 0.8 Water Year: 1986
n Storm Intensity Intensify 10
n Storm Frequency AddE vents 10 Month: Mar Apr May
n Temperature Add 2
n Tennp Cool Season Add 2 Month: Jan Feb Mar Apr Nov Dec
n Tennp Warm Season Add 4 Month: May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
D Partial Temp Add 3 Water Year: 1986
0 Synthetic Temp Add from 0 to 3 step 1
|H| Synthetic Precip Multiply from 1 to 1.3 step 0.1
Start Total iterations selected = 16 (2:21)
Remove Button
The Remove button is used to delete an item from the list of climate adjustments. The item to be
deleted must first be highlighted before clicking the Remove button.
Edit Button
19 The Edit button is used to modify an existing climate adjustment. The desired adjustment must
20 be highlighted prior to clicking the Edit button.
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View Button
2 After creating an adjustment, the View may be used to see the actual modified data values in
3 tabular form. The Time series List window will be displayed. The contents and layout of the
4 listing may be modified through options in the File, Edit, and View menus. A key feature of the
5 time series listing is the ability to export the modified values to an external file for use outside of
6 BASINS-CAT. The FilerSave option will save the listed data values to a tab-separated file.
^^| Timeseries List PI-II3II
File Edit View
History 1
Max
I Mean
Min
1955/12/31 09:00
1955/12/31 10:00
1955/12/31 11:00
1955/12/31 12:00
1955/12/31 13:00
1955/12/31 14:00
1955/12/31 15:00
1955/12/31 16:00
1955/12/31 17:00
1955/12/31 18:00
1955/12/31 19:00
1955/12/31 20:00
1955/12/31 21:00
1955/12/31 22:00
1955/12/31 23:00
1955/12/31 24:00
1956/01/01 01:00
1956/01/01 02:00
1956/01/01 03:00
1956/01/01 04:00
1956/01/01 05:00
7 1956/01/01 06:00
Analysis Help
from base.wdm
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from base.wdm ^_
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8 Prepared Button
9 The Prepared button allows the user to add scenarios that have been prepared as part of a
10 previous assessment and saved. These prepared inputs must be .WDM files, and you will be
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1 prompted to Select First base WDM file to use
Select First base WDM file to use
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Look in: l£_) Qimate
| base.wdm
I Modified.base.wdm
File name:
Files of type:
WDM files f.vvdm}
HSPF follows a certain naming convention when running CAT using prepared inputs. Select the
first folder with the .WDM file prepared for the analysis. HSPF will go through the parallel
folders that come alphabetically after that folder and add all .WDM files to CAT as prepared
inputs. Therefore, the user should create parallel folders containing the relevant .WDM files, and
choose the First base WDM file as prompted.
These prepared inputs cannot be edited in CAT. Instead, the benefit of running the model with
prepared files is to see the effect of multiple inputs and user-selected endpoints.
While running the model using prepared data, no other (non-prepared) inputs can be used. The
user must still select Endpoints as usual.
12 Arrow Buttons
13 The arrows on the right side of the window are used to move the list of inputs up and down for
14 organization.
15
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i 4.2 Assessment Endpoints
Climate Assessment Tool
File Edit Options Help
Climate Data [^essment Endpoints jj Results Table | Rvot Table |
F Save All Results
f" Show Progress of Each Rim
Remove Edit
Start
4 EPA's Guidelines to Ecological Risk Assessment define an assessment endpoint as an explicit
5 expression of an environmental value that is to be protected. More generally, any ecological
6 attribute of relevance or concern to those conducting an assessment can be considered an
7 endpoint. Examples include a particular duration-frequency flow event (e.g. the 100-year flood,
8 7Q10 low flow event), the annual water yield from a watershed, or the annual nutrient loading to
9 a stream.
10 CAT provides a flexible capability to calculate and display assessment endpoints based on model
11 output data. Endpoints are calculated as a post-processing step using output data. This capability
12 allows users to quickly generate data for assessing the influence of climate change on hydrologic
13 and water quality endpoints of concern to managers.
14 The Assessment Endpoints tab contains a list of the Endpoints which the user has created. To
15 run the model, at least one climate scenario and one endpoint are necessary.
16 Check Boxes.
17 At the top of the tab window, there are two checkboxes for options when the model is run. The
18 user can choose to:
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Save all results - a new set of model inputs and outputs will be saved for each model run,
using the text entered in the New Scenario field on the Climate Data tab as the base name
for the new files. Index numbers will be added to file names when multiple scenarios are
saved.
Show progress of each run - the model will show a window (shown below) depicting the
progress of each run. This is useful when a particularly long model is being run or a
significant number of model runs is to be performed.
Executing
Now
70%
Complete
i Pause
Estimated time left 2 seconds
Cancel Output
Add Button
Clicking the Add button on the Assessment Endpoints tab of the CAT form will display the
Endpoint form. This form contains the controls needed to define an assessment endpoint,
including the endpoint name, the dataset to be analyzed, the attribute of the dataset to be
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1 reported, value ranges of concern, and time periods of concern. The screen shown below
Endpoint
Endpoint Name: |Summer Flow
D ata set: | S CE N R CH 5 FLOW 81,004
Attribute:
Highlight Values
Default Color: White
Minimum Value: knone>
Color Lower Values: DeepSkyBlue
Lolor H igher Values: 0 rangeR ed
Only include values in selected Months
2 exhibits all features of the form.
3 The Endpoint Name field is used to provide a text label for identifying the assessment endpoint
4 being created. The Data set field is used to select the model output time series from which to
5 calculate the endpoint. The Attribute pull-down list contains the attributes available for
6 selection as assessment endpoints. CAT provides a wide array of attributes, from standard
7 statistics (e.g. mean, sum, standard deviation) to duration-frequency statistics (e.g. 7Q10, 100-
8 year flood).
9 The Highlight Values frame allows for endpoint values of concern to be specified. A minimum
10 and maximum range can be specified along with color codes to identify the ranges. Endpoint
11 results within the specified range will be displayed in cells with the Default Color background.
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1 Results below the Minimum Value will be displayed with the Color Lower Values
2 background. Results above the Maximum Value will be displayed with the Color Higher
3 Values background. Colors for all three ranges may be updated by clicking in the color fields.
4 The Seasons frame near the bottom of the form is used for specifying a time subset to be used
5 when computing the endpoint value. To specify a season, click on the Only include values in
6 selected check box and two additional fields will be displayed. The first field is a list of time
7 subset options that includes Calendar Years, Months, and Water Years. The second field will
8 display a list of available time intervals based on the item selected in the first field. For example,
9 selecting Water Years from the first field will populate the second field with a list of available
10 water years based on the period of record of the data set. For this example, select the Months
11 option and the second field will be populated with the months of the year. Items in the second
12 field may be selected and deselected by clicking on them. Additionally, the buttons below the
13 list may be used to select All or None of the items.
14 As new endpoints are defined, they are added to the text box on the Assessment Endpoints tab.
15 Endpoints in this box may be manipulated further through other buttons on this tab.
16 Remove Button
17 Click on an endpoint to highlight it, then click the Remove button to delete the endpoint.
18 Edit Button
19 Highlight an endpoint and click the Edit button to open the main Endpoint window to modify
20 the endpoint.
21 Copy Button
22 If you would like to use a similar endpoint, but make a small change (for example, change which
23 months are selected), click the Copy button to create a new, identical endpoint that can be edited
24 more easily than starting over.
25 Top and Bottom Buttons
26 These buttons are useful for organization. Highlight an endpoint, then click the Top button to
27 bring the endpoint to the top of the list of endpoints on this tab. Similarly, the Bottom button
28 will move a highlighted endpoint to the bottom of the list.
29 Arrow Buttons
30 The Arrow buttons on the right side of the window are used to move the list of endpoints up and
31 down for organization.
32
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4.3 Running an Assessment
Prior to performing an assessment in CAT it is necessary to define the climate scenario(s) to be
used as input to the model. The Climate Data tab displays a list of the previously defined
climate adjustments. Each adjustment has a check box for indicating whether or not it is to be
included as a component of the climate scenario being developed. The order of adjustments may
be controlled by selecting an adjustment and using the up and down arrow buttons above the list.
This is particularly important when multiple adjustments are being made to the same values in an
input data set (e.g. increasing an entire precipitation record and also increasing a season's storm
intensity). When synthetic climate change scenarios are selected for an assessment, multiple
scenarios are automatically generated, resulting in multiple model runs. The Total iterations
selected label at the bottom of the CAT form shows the number of model runs based on the
selected adjustments (along with an estimate of time required).
File Edit Options Help
Climate Data | Assessment Endpoints 1 Results Table | Pivot Table ]
Base Scenario (C:\BASINS\Data\Climate\base.uci
New Scenario [Modified
Remove
Edit
View
Prepared
0 Increase Precip Multiply 1 .2
n Seasonal Precip Multiply 1.2 Month: Jun Jul Aug
D Partial Precip Multiply 0.8 Water Year: 1986
O Storm Intensity Intensify 1 0
n Storm Frequency AddE vents 10 Month: Mar Apr May
jerature Add 2
Temp Cool Season Add 2 Month: Jan Feb Mar Apr Nov Dec
n Temp Warm Season Add 4 Month: May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
D Partial Temp Add 3 Water Year: 1986
n Synthetic Temp Add from 0 to 3 step 1
D Synthetic Precip Multiply from 1 to 1.3 step 0.1
Total iterations selected = 1 (0:08)
The other step required prior to performing an assessment is selecting environmental endpoints
of interest. Any number of endpoints may be selected for output from the model run(s). The
Top, Bottom, and Up/Down Arrow buttons are useful for arranging the endpoint values in a
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1 desired order on the output results table.
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Climate Assessment Tool
File Edit Options Help
Climate Data O^^ssmerrt^^ Results Table | Pivot Table |
F Save All Results
l~~ Show Progress of Each Run
0 FlowlHighlOO
0 Total N SumAnnual
Summer Flow Min Month: Jun Jul Aug
Start Total iterations selected = 1 (0:08)
Before model execution, two additional options on the Assessment Endpoints tab may be set:
Save All Results and Show Progress of Each Run. The Save All Results check box is used to
set whether or not all model output is saved, not just the assessment endpoint values. Checking
this box will save a new set of output results in the same manner as the original output. The text
from the New Scenario field on the Climate Data tab will be used to build the base file name
for the new output files. When saving multiple sets of results, this base name will also have
model run number added to it. The Show Progress of Each Run check box is used to set
whether or not a status monitor will be displayed while the model is running. If a model run is
particularly long, or a series of model runs are being made using synthetic data, checking this
box can be useful to see the progress of the model run(s).
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i 4.4 Results
3 CAT outputs results in the form of assessment endpoint values as they are computed from model
4 output time series. CAT results can be displayed in both a standard table and a pivot table.
5 Additionally, it is possible to assess model output results at a greater level of detail through the
6 main BASINS interface.
7 Results Table
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The Results Table tab displays the assessment endpoint values computed from the model run's
output time series. If a range of concern was specified for an endpoint and the resulting endpoint
value is above or below the specified range, its background color will be set according to the
endpoint specification.
Climate Assessment Tool
File Edit Options Help
Climate Data | Assessment Endpoints Results Table j Pivot Table |
Run Partial Precip
Multiply
Current Value
WaterYear (1986
0.8
Partial Temp
Add
Current Value
WaterYear (1986)
3
Total N
SumAnnual
SCENRCH5TN-LOAD
289,260
Flow
Mean
SCENRCH5FLOW
Summer Flow
Min
SCENRCH5FLOW
Month (Jun Jul Aug )
10.109
Start Finished with 1 runs
Output tables in CAT may also be saved to an external file for use outside of the program. The
Save Results item in the File menu will prompt for the file name in which the results are to be
saved. Results are saved in a tab-delimited format, suitable for import into Excel and other
analysis programs. Additionally, the EditrCopy Results menu option will copy the contents of
the results table to the clipboard, making them available for pasting elsewhere.
18 Pivot Table
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A pivot table is a data visualization and mining tool that allows users to reorganize selected
columns and rows of data within a database. The term pivot refers to turning the data to view it
from different perspectives. Pivot tables are especially useful for summarizing large amounts of
data in a compact format, looking for patterns and relationships within a dataset, and organizing
data into a format suitable for plotting data as a chart.
The Pivot Table tab allows users to view model output data (the same data listed in the results
table) in a pivot table. The Rows and Columns fields must be selected from the dropdown lists
on this tab. This feature is especially useful when synthetic climate change scenarios are used
and the effects of varying climatic changes on a selected endpoint are being investigated. The
first two fields of this form are used to specify what element to vary in the Rows and Columns
of the pivot table. The Cells field is used to specify what element will be displayed in the pivot
table's cells.
Climate Assessment Tool
File Edit Options Help
Climate Data 1 Assessment Endpoints 1 Results Table Pivot Table
R ows Synthetic T emp Add Current Value)
Columns [Synthetic Precip Multiply Current Value
Cells | Flow Mean SCEN R CHS FLOW
Start Finished with 16 runs
As with CAT's standard Results Table, pivot table results may also be saved to an external file.
The File:Save Pivot option will prompt for the file name in which the pivot table is to be saved.
Additionally, the Edit: Copy Pivot menu option will copy the contents of the pivot table to the
clipboard, making them available for pasting elsewhere.
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i 5.0 A Case Study Application of the BASINS CAT in the
2 Monocacy River Watershed
3
4 This chapter presents a case study application of BASINS CAT assessing the potential impacts
5 of climate change on the hydrology and water quality of a mid-Atlantic watershed. The
6 discussion is intended to be illustrative of the type of analyses and data that can be generated
7 using the BASINS CAT. Accordingly, we do not present a comprehensive discussion of results.
8 A limited set of results are presented as only examples of the analyses performed. Moreover, this
9 case study is a single example of an analysis conducted using the CAT tool. Other studies and
10 applications of BASINS CAT may employ different methods of creating scenarios and/or
11 address hydrologic, water quality and/or biological endpoints not discussed here.
12
13 5.1 Background and Goals
14
15 The Monocacy River flows from south-central Pennsylvania to central Maryland, and is a
16 tributary of the Potomac River and Chesapeake Bay (Figure 5.1). During the latter half of the
17 20th century, human activities within the Bay watershed resulted in severe ecological
18 impairment, principally due to nutrient pollution and associated reductions in dissolved oxygen
19 and water clarity. To address this problem, in 1983 a government partnership called the
20 Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) was established among the States of Maryland, Virginia,
21 Pennsylvania, the District of Columbia, and the federal government with the goal of restoring
22 water quality and living resources throughout the Bay and tributaries.
23
24 This study was conducted to help the EPA Chesapeake Bay Program determine how potential
25 future changes in climate could impact the ability to achieve nutrient and sediment reduction
26 targets in the Monocacy River. Specifically, the study goal was to determine whether potential
27 future climate changes by the year 2030 presented a significant risk to achieving and maintaining
28 desired nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment reductions. Nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment were
29 selected as endpoints because they have an important influence on Bay dissolved oxygen, water
30 clarity and organisms such as crabs, fish and plankton. The planning horizon of 2030 was
31 selected to be consistent with a concurrent CBP effort assessing the impacts of land use change
32 on water quality. The impacts of potential future changes in land use were not considered,
33 however, in this study.
34
35 The Monocacy watershed is 1,927 km2 in size, with approximately 60% in agriculture, 33%
36 forested, and 7% urban. The city of Frederick, MD, and its suburbs are the largest urban area
37 within the watershed. The Monocacy is categorized as a Maryland Wild and Scenic River, but it
38 has one of the greatest nonpoint source pollution problems in the state due in large part to runoff
39 from the 3,500 farms, livestock operations and dairies in the watershed. A USGS Stream gage is
40 located near the mouth of the river.
41
42
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Stream Reach Shapefile
CBP Phase 5 - River Seqments
Countv Boundaries
State Boundaries
2002 Titier Road 02070009
Primary limited access
1 Primary non-limited access
Secondary
Local
n Other
National Elevation Datasel
S5229 - 35328
35328 - 65427
"''" No Data
-V
n
a
'V
n
Figure 5.1. The Monocacy River Watershed.
5.2 Methods
BASINS CAT was used to create and run climate change scenarios using the watershed model
HSPF. Climate change scenarios were created by modifying temperature and precipitation
records for a 16 year period of historical data, from 1984 to 2000, from 7 NCDC weather stations
located within or near to the watershed. As discussed previously, this approach allows scenarios
to be created at multiple locations (e.g. NCDC weather stations) while maintaining the existing
spatial correlation structure among neighboring locations.
The HSPF model was selected for simulating the watershed response to climate change for two
reasons. First, the influence of climate change on watershed processes is complex, and it was
decided that a relatively detailed model was necessary to adequately represent the sensitivities of
the system to changes in temperature and precipitation. This is particularly true given the focus
on the biologically reactive endpoints nitrogen and phosphorus. In addition, it was important to
use a model for assessing climate change impacts that was compatible with the model used by
the Chesapeake Bay Program to assess other program outcomes, the Phase 5 Community
Watershed Model, which is based on HSPF. Moreover, to ensure that simulations of climate
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1 change impacts were consistent with existing Bay Program modeling practices, the Monocacy
2 BASINS HSPF project was set up and parameterized in the same way using the same land
3 use/landcover and BMP data as used by the Phase 5 Community Watershed Model.
4
5 5.2.1. Regional Climate Change Data
6
7 Information about future climate change in the Monocacy Watershed was acquired through Penn
8 State University's Consortium of Atlantic Regional Assessments project (CARA) web page
9 (http://www.cara.psu.edu/). The CARA webpage provides spatially referenced data on projected
10 changes in temperature and precipitation totals throughout the mid-Atlantic region for the future
11 periods 2010-2039, 2040-2069, and 2070-2099 based on climate modeling experiments using 7
12 GCM models from the IPCC Third Assessment Report (IPCC, 2001) and two IPCC future
13 greenhouse gas emission storylines (A2 and B2; IPCC, 2001). CARA data are expressed as
14 projected changes relative to the base period 1971-2000, summarized for each season of the year,
15 and interpolated spatially from the original GCM grid resolution to 1/8 degree resolution using a
16 spline algorithm. Collectively, climate change projections based on these 7 GCM models and
17 A2/B2 emissions storylines capture a plausible range of future change in the Monocacy
18 Watershed. Scenarios based on these projections, in turn, were used to identify the range of
19 plausible changes in nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment loads in the Monocacy River. Note that
20 CARA website is also a good source of general information about climate change, the use of
21 climate change scenarios for assessing impacts, land use change, and other information for the
22 mid-Atlantic region. Additional information about the CARA data is available at:
23 http://www.cara.psu.edu/climate/models.asp
24
25 5.2.2. Scenario Analysis
26
27 The scenarios evaluated in this study considered only potential future changes in climate. Future
28 changes in land use, sea level rise, or other factors potentially impacting the Chesapeake Bay
29 were not addressed. All watershed simulations thus assumed current land use conditions
30 throughout the Monocacy watershed.
31
32 Climate change scenarios were created and analyzed in 2 ways to address different questions
33 about system sensitivity to climate change. The first analysis used a set of "synthetic" scenarios
34 to gain fundamental understanding of important system properties, e.g., thresholds and non-
35 linear behaviors. Synthetic scenarios describe techniques where particular climatic attributes are
36 changed by a realistic but arbitrary amount, often according to a qualitative interpretation of
37 climate model simulations for a region (IPCC_TGIA, 2007). The results of this type of analysis
38 are particularly useful for providing insights about the type and amount of change necessary to
39 threaten a management target or push the system past a threshold. In this study, a set of 42
40 synthetic scenarios were created and run with the HSPF model reflecting different combinations
41 of arbitrarily assigned changes in temperature and precipitation. Baseline temperatures were
42 adjusted by 0, 2, 4, 6, 8, and 10°F, and baseline precipitation volume by -10, -5, 0, 5, 10, 15, and
43 20 percent. Changes in precipitation volume were implemented by applying a uniform multiplier
44 to all precipitation events in the record, thus potential future increases in the proportion of
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1 precipitation occurring in larger magnitude events were not reflected in synthetic scenarios.
2 Although the specific changes described are arbitrary, the range of temperature and precipitation
3 change is consistent with projected changes for this region by the end of this century in the
4 CARA dataset.
5
6 The second analysis used a set of model based climate change scenarios from the CARA
7 database to determine the potential range of changes in nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment
8 loading in the Monocacy River by the year 2030. This analysis was intended to assess the
9 sensitivity of these endpoints to a set of specific, internally consistent climate change scenarios
10 based on climate modeling experiments reflecting different assumptions about future greenhouse
11 gas emissions and different model representations of the climate system.
12
13 A total of 42 model-based scenarios were created and run with the HSPF model based on
14 seasonally variable climate change projections for the period 2010-2039 (the averaging period in
15 the CARA dataset closest to the 2030 planning horizon of the Chesapeake Bay Program) from
16 the CARA dataset. Scenarios reflect projections based on 7 GCM models, and 2 emissions
17 storylines, and 3 assumptions about changes in the intensity of precipitation events.
18
19 The projected changes in mean air temperature and precipitation totals for each season of the
20 year (Dec/Jan/Feb; Mar/Apr/May; Jun/Jul/Aug; Sep/Oct/Nov) relative to the base period 1971 to
21 2000 were acquired for each projection in the CARA dataset. It is generally expected that as
22 climate changes, a greater proportion of annual precipitation will occur in larger magnitude
23 events (IPCC, 2007). The CARA dataset, however, did not provide any information about
24 changes in precipitation intensity. Accordingly, to capture a range of plausible changes in event
25 intensity, scenarios were created by applying projected seasonal changes from the CARA dataset
26 in three ways: (1) as a constant multiplier applied equally to all events within the specified
27 season, (2) as a constant multiplier applied only to the largest 30% of events within the specified
28 season, and (3) as a constant multiplier applied only to the largest 10% of events within the
29 specified season. The 3 assumptions about changes in precipitation intensity capture a plausible
30 range of future changes in the distribution of precipitation among different magnitude events
31 based on observed trends during the 20th century (e.g. during this period there was a general
32 trend throughout the U. S. towards increases in the proportion of annual precipitation occurring in
33 roughly the largest 30% magnitude events; Groisman et al., 2005). All totaled, the resulting set
34 of 42 scenarios capture a broad range of plausible future climate change well suited to
35 identifying the potential range of impacts on system endpoints.
36
37 Each of the 42 scenarios was created using BASINS CAT by specifying a set of adjustments to
38 historical temperature and precipitation time series for the period 1984 to 2000. More
39 specifically, each scenario consisted of a set of 4 adjustments to the historical temperature time
40 series, one for each season of the year, reflecting projected seasonal temperature changes for one
41 projection from the CARA dataset; and 4 adjustments to the historical precipitation time series,
42 one for each season of the year, reflecting projected seasonal precipitation changes (expressed as
43 a percent change) together with an assumption about how changes in precipitation are distributed
44 among different sized events (i.e. assume that the projected seasonal change in precipitation
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volume is distributed among all events during that season, just the largest 30% of events, or just
the largest 10% of events).
5.3 Results
The model output generated by HSPF for the different scenarios evaluated can be compared,
contrasted, combined, parsed, or otherwise analyzed in a great variety of ways to gain insights
concerning the system response to climate change. In this study we focus on mean annual
nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment loading, although a wide range of other metrics could be
calculated and assessed. As mentioned previously, the purpose of this case study is to provide an
example of the types of analyses supported by BASINS CAT. Accordingly, we do not provide a
detailed discussion of results or conclusions. Rather, results are presented for a single endpoint,
mean annual nitrogen loading, and we provide a single graphic display of data generated using
each type of scenario. Other studies and applications of BASINS CAT, depending on
management/user goals, may utilize other methods of analysis and display, and may address a
multitude of other hydrologic, water quality and/or biological endpoints.
5.3.1 Synthetic Scenarios
After conducting a series of HSPF simulations using BASINS CAT, a summary of results can be
viewed by selecting the "Results Table" tab from the opening CAT window. This data can be
exported and used with any 3rd party database, spreadsheet, or plotting package. In addition, the
"Pivot Table" tab in BASINS CAT provides powerful tool for quickly exploring the response of
any selected endpoint as a function of any two other variables. For example, Figure 5.2 shows in
pivot table format the response of mean annual nitrogen loading in the Monocacy River to
changes in mean annual temperature and precipitation based on the analysis using synthetic
scenarios.
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Climate Data | Assessment Endpoints | ResultsTable PivotTable
Rows
Columns
AirTemp:Seg1 Mean OBSERVED SEG1 ATMP#1,104| -r|
Precsegl Sum OBSERVED SEG1 HPRC#Z,100 _rj
Cells |Nitrogen-Total SumAnnual base R:9 N-TOT-OUT* 16,111 ^|
52.779
54.779
56.779
58.779
60.779
62.779
668.1
4,151,200
4,061,100
3,993,100
3,936,100
3,903,500
3,869,700
705.22
4,355,300
4,238,100
4,151,500
4,076,400
4,018,100
3,978,200
742.33 779.45 816.57 853.68 890.8
4,574,700 4,808,900 5,042,800 5,270,300 5,485,500
4,451,800 4,678,200 4,907,500 5,141,800 5,375,200
4,323,800 4,534,900 4,761,900 4,989,600 5,231,800
4,240,600 4,415,000 4,614,300 4,838,200 5,065,700
4,175,400 4,339,600 4,514,900 4,710,100 4,925,600
4,112,200 4,266,000 4,434,100 4,619,100 4,814,900
^!d
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1 Figure 5.2. Pivot table showing the response of mean annual nitrogen loading (pounds per
2 year) in the Monocacy River to changes in mean annual temperature and precipitation
3 based on the analysis using synthetic scenarios.
4
5 Figure 5.3 shows the same data contained in Figure 5.2 in a different format. The plot is based on
6 output from 42 HSPF simulations generated using the automated (iterative) run capability of the
7 BASINS CAT. Contours were generated by interpolation from the original 42 points, or
8 synthetic scenarios, evaluated. The plot illustrates that as precipitation increases across the
9 watershed, annual nitrogen loads increase, reflecting increases in runoff. As air temperature
10 increases, annual nitrogen loads decrease in response to decreased runoff resulting from
11 increased evapotranspiration. More specifically, the impact of warming temperatures on nitrogen
12 loading can be seen in this figure by moving from the point labeled "current climate" vertically
13 upwards. The impacts of changes in precipitation can be seen by moving horizontally left or right
14 from this point. In a similar way, the projected impacts of any combination of change in
15 temperature and precipitation on annual nitrogen loading can be seen by moving along different
16 trajectories within the plot. Generally, mean annual nitrogen loading is shown to change about
17 1.1% per % change in mean annual precipitation (relative to current conditions), and about 2%
18 per degree F change in mean annual air temperature. This type of quantitative information can be
19 developed for any endpoint of concern, and can be useful for assessing the risk of climate change
20 impacting a management target or goal (e.g. a target nutrient load). In this study similar plots
21 were developed for phosphorus and sediment loading but are not shown here. It should be noted
22 that BASINS CAT does not provide a direct capability for making contour plots such as Figure
23 5.3. The contour plot shown here was created using a 3rd party plotting software (DPLOT) from
24 tabular HSPF output data generated by BASINS CAT (shown in the "Results Table" tab).
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Mean Annual Precipitation (inches)
Figure 5.3. Contour plot showing the response of mean annual nitrogen loading
(pounds* 1000 per year) in the Monocacy River to changes in mean annual temperature
and precipitation based on the analysis using synthetic scenarios. The current mean annual
temperature and precipitation are indicated by the black star.
5.3.2 Model-Based Scenarios
Figure 5.4 shows the response of mean annual nitrogen loading in the Monocacy River to the
model-based, seasonally variable climate change scenarios developed from climate change
projection data in the CARA dataset. The data shown are from HSPF simulations of only the 14
scenarios created by applying a uniform multiplier to all events (i.e. does not reflect potential
changes in the proportion of precipitation occurring in large magnitude events). BASINS CAT
was used to create and run each scenario. Note that the scenarios based on other assumptions
about changes in precipitation intensity have exactly the same mean annual temperature and
precipitation values, and thus cannot be displayed in Figure 5.4 (because x-axis value reflects
only annual total precipitation, results based on each different assumption about intensity would
plot at exactly the same x,y coordinate).
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Mean Annual Precipitation (inches)
Figure 5.4. Scatter plot showing the response of mean annual nitrogen loading (indicated by
the color scale in pounds* 1000 per year) in the Monocacy River to model based climate
change scenarios from the CARA dataset. Circles represent projections based on the A2
emissions storyline, triangles represent projections based on the B2 emissions storyline, and
the star represents current mean annual temperature and precipitation.
Current climate is indicated on the plot by the star. The spatial distribution of the points shows
the range of projected changes in mean annual temperature and precipitation from the 7 GCM
models and two emissions storylines. All projections show warming mean annual temperatures
by 2030. Projections vary with respect to changes in mean annual precipitation, with some
showing increases, and others decreases. The color scale indicates the range changes in mean
annual nitrogen loading in response to projected changes in climate. Changes in mean annual
precipitation for these scenarios ranged from about -1 to 5 %, and changes in mean annual
temperature from about 1 to 3 °F. The resulting changes in mean annual nitrogen loads ranged
from about -5 to 3 %. The projected decreases are likely to result from decreases in streamflow
also projected by 2030.
As with the analysis of synthetic scenarios, this type of quantitative information can be
developed for various or multiple endpoints of concern, and can be useful for determining the
range of potential changes in a key management target resulting from plausible future changes in
climate (in this case based on model projection data). Figure 5.4 was created using a 3rd party
plotting software (DPLOT) from tabular HSPF output data generated by BASINS CAT (shown
in the "Results Table" tab).
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5.0 Monocacy Case Study
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2 5.4 Conclusions
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4 The case study described in this chapter is a brief example of an analysis conducted using
5 BASINS CAT assessing the sensitivity of a single water quality parameter, nitrogen, to a range
6 of plausible changes in climate. Results suggest that nitrogen loading is sensitive to projected
7 changes in climate in this watershed, although the direction of change is unclear due to
8 differences in projected future changes in precipitation. Similar analyses could be conducted
9 using the BASINS CAT tool assessing a wide range of user-specified climate change scenarios
10 and/or hydrologic and water quality endpoints.
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6.0 Other Resources
i 6.0 Other Resources
3 The U.S. EPA's climate change web site provides a range of information about climate change
4 and potential climate change impacts.
5 http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/
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7 The U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) web site provides links to information and
8 products from the U.S. Global Change Research Program.
9 http://www.climatescience.gov/
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11 The NOAA Climate Program Office web site provides links to information and products from
12 NOAA.
13 http://www.climate.noaa.gov/cpo_pa/risa/
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15 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) web site provides a wealth of scientific
16 information and products including links to the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report.
17 http://www.ipcc.ch/
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19 The IPCC Task Group on Scenarios for Climate Impact Analysis gives guidance on developing
20 scenarios and conducting climate change impact assessments.
21 http://ipcc-wgl .ucar.edu/wgl/wgl_tgica.html
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23 The Consortium for Atlantic Regional Assessment (CARA) web site has a useful climate change
24 primer along with some climate change scenarios for the Northeastern US.
25 http://www.cara.psu.edu/
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7.0 References
i 7.0 References
2
3 AQUA TERRA Consultants, and HydroQual, Inc. 2001. Modeling Nutrient Loads to Long
4 Island Sound from Connecticut Watersheds, and Impacts of Future Buildout and Management
5 Scenarios. Prepared for CT Department of Environmental Protection. Hartford, CT. 138 pg, plus
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7 Arnold, J.G. and N. Fohrer. 2005. SWAT2000: Current Capabilities and Research
8 Opportunities in Applied Watershed Modeling. Hydrol. Process. 19(3): 563-572.
9 Bicknell, B.R., J.C. Imhoff, J.L. Kittle Jr., T.H. Jobes, and A.S. Donigian, Jr. 2005. Hydrological
10 Simulation Program - Fortran (HSPF). User's Manual for Release 12.2 U.S. EPA National
11 Exposure Research Laboratory, Athens, GA, in cooperation with U.S. Geological Survey, WRD,
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13 Burns, I. S., S. Scott, L. Levick, M. Hernandez, D. C. Goodrich, D. J. Semmens, W. G. Kepner,
14 and S. N. Miller. 2004. Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) - A GIS-Based
15 Hydrologic Modeling Tool: Documentation and User Manual (http://www.epa.gov/esd/land-
16 sci/agwa/pdf/agwa manual 1 -5.pdf) Version 1.5, EPA/600/C-06/001 and ARS/137460.
17 Clough, J. S., and R. A. Park. 2006. AQUATOX (Release 3) Modeling Environmental Fate and
18 Ecological Effects in Aquatic Ecosystems, Addendum to Release 2 & 2.1 Technical
19 Documentation. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC.
20 Donigian, A.S. Jr., J.C. Imhoff and B.R. Bicknell. 1983. Predicting Water Quality Resulting
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22 Management and Water Quality, (ed.) F.W. Schaller and G.W. Baily, Iowa State University
23 Press, Ames, IA, pp. 209-249.
24 Donigian, A.S., Jr., J.C. Imhoff, B.R. Bicknell and J.L. Kittle, Jr. 1984. Application Guide for
25 Hydrological Simulation Program - FORTRAN (HSPF). EPA- 600/3-84-065. Office of
26 Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Athens, GA.
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28 Donigian, A.S., Jr., J.C. Imhoff and J.L. Kittle, Jr., 1998. HSPFParm: An Interactive Database
29 of HSPF Model Parameters - Version 1.0. Office of Science and Technology, Office of Water,
30 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC.
31 Fitzpatrick, J.J., J.C. Imhoff, E.H. Burgess and R.W. Brashear. 2001. Assessment and Use of
32 Hydrodynamic, Land-based Runoff, and Fate and Transport Models. Project 99-WSM-5 Final
33 Report. Published by the Water Environment Federation, Alexandria, VA.
34 Gleick, P., and D.B. Adams, 2000. Water: The potential consequences of climate variability and
35 change for water resources of the United States, Report of the Water Sector Assessment Team of
36 the National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change,
37 Pacific Institute, Oakland CA, 151 p.
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1 Groisman, P., R. Knight, D. Easterling, T. Karl, G. Hegerl, and V. Razuvaev, 2005. Trends in
2 intense precipitation in the climate record, J. of Climate, Vol. 18, p 1326-1350
3 Hamon, R.W. 1961, Estimating Potential Evapotranspiration, Proceedings of the American
4 Society of Civil Engineers, Journal of the Hydraulic Division, Vol. 87, No. HY3, p 107-120.
5 Imhoff, J.C, J.L. Kittle, M.R. Gray and T.E. Johnson. 2007. Using the Climate Assessment Tool
6 (CAT) in U.S. EPA BASINS integrated modeling system to assess watershed vulnerability to
7 climate change. Water Science and Technology Vol 56 No 8. IWA Publishing, London, p 49-56
8 IPPC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 2001. Climate Change 2001: Impacts,
9 Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment
10 Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press.
11 Cambridge, United Kingdom.
12 IPPC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 2007. Climate Change 2007: Impacts,
13 Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment
14 Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press.
15 Cambridge, United Kingdom
16 IPCC-TGICA, 2007. General guidelines on the use of scenario data for climate impact and
17 adaptation assessment, Prepared by T.R. Carter on behalf of the International Panel on Climate
18 Change Task Group on Data and Scenario Support for Impact and Climate Assessment, 66 pp.
19 http://unfccc.int/resource/cd roms/nal/v and a/Resoursce materials/Climate/ScenarioData.pdf
20 Johanson, R.C. 1989. Water Quantity/Quality Modelling in an Overseas Situation. Proc. of
21 Specialty Conference of ASCE, Water Resources Planning and Management Division,
22 Sacramento, CA.
23 Johnson, T. and J.L. Kittle, Jr. 2006. Sensitivity Analysis as a Guide for Assessing and
24 Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources. AWRA Water Resources
25 Impact, Vol 8:5, p. 15-18.
26 Linker, L.C., G.W. Shenk, P. Wang, and J.M. Storrick. 1998. Chesapeake Bay Watershed Model
27 Application and Calculation of Nutrient and Sediment Loadings. Appendix B. Phase 4
28 Chesapeake Bay Watershed Model Water Quality Calibration Results, EPA/903/R-98/003. U.S.
29 EPA, Chesapeake Bay Program, Annapolis, MD.
30 Mulkey, L.A., R.B. Ambrose, and T.O. Barnwell. 1986. "Aquatic Fate and Transport Modeling
31 Techniques for Predicting Environmental Exposure to Organic Pesticides and Other Toxicants -
32 A Comparative Study." In: Urban Runoff Pollution, Springer-Verlag, New York, NY.
33 Pielke, R.A. Sr. and L. Bravo de Guenni, Eds., 2004: How to evaluate vulnerability in changing
34 environmental conditions. Part E In: Vegetation, Water, Humans and the Climate: A New
35 Perspective on an Interactive System. Global Change - The IGBP Series, P. Kabat et al. Eds.,
36 Springer, 483-544.
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7.0 References
1 Rossman, L.A. 2007. Storm Water Management Model User's Manual - Version 5.0. EPA-600-
2 R-05-040. U.S. EPA National Risk Management Research Laboratory. Cincinnati, OH.
3 Sarewitz, D., R.A. Pielke Jr., R. Byerly Jr., 2000. Introduction: Death, taxes, and environmental
4 policy. In: Predictions: science, decision making, and the future of nature, edited by D. Sarewitz,
5 R.A. Pielke Jr., and R. Byerly Jr., p. 1-7, Island Press, Washington, DC
6 USEPA. 2005. Handbook for Developing Watershed Plans to Restore and Protect Our Waters
7 (Draft). USEPA Office of Water, Nonpoint Source Control Branch, Washington DC.
8 USEPA, 2006a. DFLOW Version 3.1 User's Manual. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
9 Office of Water, Washington, DC.
10 USEPA, 2006b. WASP Version 7.2. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Water,
11 Washington, DC.
12 USEPA (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency). 2007. BASINS 4.0. U.S. Environmental
13 Protection Agency, EPA-823-C-07-001, Washington, DC.
14 USGS. 2008. USGS Surface Water Statistics (SWSTAT) software.
15 http://water.usgs.gov/software/SWSTAT/
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