CLIMATE CHANGE AND
COASTAL WATERSHEDS
CLIMATE READY
-• E S T J ARIES
Adaptation to Attain Clean Water
Goals and Sustainable Coasts
Sustainable means: to create and maintain conditions, under which humans
and nature can exist in productive harmony, that permit fulfilling the social,
economic, and other requirements of present and future generations.
—Executive Order 13514 of October 5, 2009
Sustainability and Climate Change
Healthy and resilient ocean and coastal ecosystems are directly linked to environmental quality,
human well-being, and national prosperity. Protecting, restoring, and maintaining these ecosystems
and national resources are essential for ensuring a sustainable future.
Current environmental challenges in coastal watersheds loom large. Yet, the climate changes that
are anticipated (such as warmer temperatures, sea level rise, or intensification of the hydrologic
cycle) are going to increase existing pressures on estuaries as well as give rise to new problems.
Management strategies and practices will need to evolve as climate changes. It may not be sufficient
to restore or maintain historical conditions; Sustainability might require creating and maintaining new
environments as well.
Sustainability planning in estuaries encompasses nearly every sector, including human health, natural
resource management, and disaster response. EPA's Climate Ready Estuaries (CRE) program focuses
on the aspects of climate change that affect the chemical, physical, and biological integrity of coastal
watersheds. Climate Ready Estuaries works to ensure that the goals of the Clean Water Act will
continue to be achievable.
Adaptation for Sustainability
Clean Water Act legislation that specifically addresses estuaries *f, contains a mandate to control
pollution, to improve estuary habitat, to ensure healthy plant and animal communities, and to
* 33 USC 1330. National estuary program. (Section 320 of the Clean Water Act)
f 33 USC Chapter 42—Estuary Restoration. (The Estuaries and Clean Waters Act of 2000)
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maintain human uses. Efforts to incorporate sustainability principles into how the country tries to
reach those goals will be complicated in many ways by the impacts of future changes.
Coastal managers will be faced with climate changes that will affect their systems. Warmer summers
and winters, and warmer water temperatures will have a variety of effects on native plants and
animals. More intense drought and heavy precipitation will complicate efforts to control point
and nonpoint sources of pollution. Estuary habitats, especially coastal marshes, are increasingly
at risk of shoreline erosion, rising sea level, and ecological transition. Sea level rise also poses a
threat to water and wastewater infrastructure, as well as to drinking water in our rivers and aquifers.
Adaptation will be necessary to avoid, resist, or absorb those impacts and to help society achieve
clean water goals under changing environmental conditions.
Many of the strategies that have value for today's situation will also help to adapt to climate impacts.
Preserving healthy watersheds and restoring coastal environments are thought to be important
ways of maintaining robust fish, plant, and animal communities that can more easily transition with
changing climate conditions. Options for stormwater and pollution management, such as using
green infrastructure techniques or adopting low-impact development, can be no-regrets strategies
as well.
Adapting to climate change will not simply be a matter of adjusting to a new stable state.
Sustainability will be elusive as climate will be continually evolving. The challenge will be to optimize
needed environmental, economic, and social benefits, while being aware that climate changes in the
decades to come may mean our work is never done.
Being Climate Ready
Climate Ready Estuaries works to raise the capacity of the National Estuary Programs (NEPs) and
other coastal managers to anticipate and respond to climate change impacts. By choosing wisely,
the necessity of adapting to climate change can be leveraged so that present and future generations
of Americans can exist in productive harmony with nature. Prepared and alert coastal managers will
recognize needs and opportunities to avoid losses and to guide their systems to sustainability in a
constantly changing climate.
This progress report highlights some of the ways that NEPs have used CRE projects to continue
reaching for a sustainable future where the aspirations of the Clean Water Act can be achieved.
Pollution Control
Effectively controlling point and nonpoint sources of pollution and pollution cleanup are important
aspects of the Clean Water Act. Legislation also calls for improving and maintaining water quality
and cleaning up pollution for the benefit of estuary habitat. Pollution control activities will be
affected by climate change impacts, including changes in air and water temperature; changes in
amounts, frequency and distribution of rain and snowfall; sea level rise; and ocean acidification.
Point sources of pollution
In regions experiencing more frequent drought, critical-low-flow criteria for discharging may not
be met and pollutant concentrations would increase if sources stay the same as flow diminishes.
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Warmer winters with less snow accumulation could affect point sources of pollution by reducing
spring or summer flow volume which would affect pollution concentrations in receiving waters.
Increased water temperature can make it harder to meet water quality criteria, and could increase
the toxicity of pollutants. Floods may cause treatment plants to go offline. More intense precipitation
events can cause combined sewer overflow events to increase and sea level rise may also produce
seawater backflows into combined sewer systems. Sea level rise might require operational changes
at sewage treatment plants. Additionally, sea level rise could lead to flooding or shoreline erosion at
contaminated sites.
Water quality problems and nonpoint sources of pollution
Climate change will also affect the ability to effectively manage nonpoint sources of pollution.
Warmer water temperature could cause increased algal growth; and parasites and bacteria can have
greater abundance, survival, and transmission. Higher surface temperatures may lead to stratification
within the water column and warmer waters will hold less dissolved oxygen. Warmer summers may
increase the frequency of wildfires and lead to soil erosion. In regions experiencing more intense
precipitation, streams might also have greater erosive force. Where drought is more frequent,
nonpoint sources of pollution could increase from the buildup of pollutants on land, followed by high
intensity runoff when rain does come. Urban areas may be subject to more floods and flood control
facilities might be inadequate. Excessive rainfall can also cause septic systems to fail. Sea level rise
will cause tides to reach higher and flood new areas. Finally, acidification could be exacerbated in
coastal waters when decomposing organic matter interacts with pH changes in the oceans.
Climate Ready Estuaries partners are working to identify how particular climate change impacts
will affect their ability to manage point and nonpoint sources of pollution and pollution cleanup
activities. The Piscataqua Region Estuaries Program conducted a study of how increases in
the frequency and intensity of rainfall events are likely to impact hydrology and the drainage
infrastructure within the Oyster River watershed. The analysis demonstrated that implementing
low-impact development techniques in the watershed would allow for better management of
stormwater runoff. The Albemarle-Pamlico National Estuary Program held a series of listening
sessions to discuss residents' concerns about sea level rise and population growth. Residents spoke
about nonpoint source runoff from development, issues of poor drainage of water on the landscape,
and other results of population growth, such as the increase in green lawns and the resulting
chemical runoff from these residential areas. The Sarasota Bay Estuary Program developed a
sea level rise viewer to show a range of sea level rise and storm surge scenario impacts to coastal
development and infrastructure, including stormwater drainage systems. The viewer is online to
facilitate education of officials and the public. The Indian River Lagoon National Estuary Program
completed a sea level rise vulnerability assessment for the City of Satellite Beach, FL to aid city
planning. They are working with the city's Comprehensive Planning Authority Board to include
climate considerations into its comprehensive plan. The Lower Columbia River Estuary Partnership
is incorporating climate change into their Comprehensive Conservation and Management Plan. This
will ensure consideration of climate change in future management of conventional and toxic water
pollutants.
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Estuary Habitat
Establishing chemical, physical, and biological qualities of estuaries which will support a balanced
population of living resources, is a goal of the Clean Water Act. Coastal and near-shore marine
ecology and the ecosystems services they provide are vulnerable to a host of climate change-related
effects including increasing air and water temperatures, sea level rise, changes in runoff from the
land, and altered currents.
Aquatic environments
Surface water and ground water resources in coastal watersheds may be affected by a greater rate
of evaporation. Where temperatures are warmer or drought is more frequent, ground water tables
will be affected and base flow in streams could decrease. A change to ground water and surface
water resources can force municipalities to switch between drinking water sources, which may have
effects in estuaries. Managers at hydropower dams might react to greater electricity demand in the
summertime by changing how much water they release from reservoirs. The amount of water in
streams would also be affected by stronger storms that lead to more intense flooding and runoff.
This in turn can lead to less infiltration and also increase turbidity of surface waters. Changes in the
proportion of rain and snowfall might also change the runoff/infiltration balance, causing the base
flow in streams to change. Additionally, warmer winters may prevent rivers from freezing, eliminating
the spring thaw and a spring runoff pulse. Sea level rise will push tidal influence and saline water
farther upstream, and freshwater habitat would become more brackish.
Terrestrial environments
Stronger coastal storms can lead to greater shoreline erosion, and also cause coastal overwash or
island breaching. Even what are now routine storms would have enhanced effects because of sea
level rise. Intertidal environments are at risk of erosion and also to progressive drowning from rising
water. People may increasingly turn to bulkheads, sea walls, and revetments in an effort to preserve
the existing shoreline. In places where salt marshes will not be able to keep up with sea level rise
there is likely to be large wetland losses. Marshes and beaches can also be exposed to erosion in the
winter storm season by the loss of protective ice.
Climate Ready Estuaries partners are considering how changing climate conditions affect the
integrity of estuarine habitats and the shellfish, fish, and wildlife populations they support.
Implications of sea level rise and changing precipitation patterns to estuaries have been of particular
interest to NEPs. The Narragansett Bay Estuary Program is analyzing dams and other in-stream
structures in the Pawtuxet River watershed to assess their vulnerability to climate change and
flooding and resulting impacts on watershed restoration efforts. The Partnership for the Delaware
Estuary and the Indian River Lagoon National Estuary Program used the Sea Level Affecting
Marshes Model (SLAMM) to conduct an analysis of sea level rise impacts on coastal wetlands.
The Santa Monica Bay Restoration Commission is conducting a vulnerability assessment of the
Ballona Wetlands to changes in temperature, precipitation, and sea level rise. Study results and
recommendations are being applied to wetland restoration planning and water quality management.
The Partnership for the Delaware Estuary is designing a living shoreline approach for maintaining
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ecological quality in tidal wetlands. The Tampa Bay Estuary Program is likewise leading the creation
of a "Gulf Coast Community Handbook" which will identify best practices and lessons learned for
incorporating climate change resiliency into habitat restoration and protection plans. The Puget
Sound Partnership, the Charlotte Harbor National Estuary Program, and the Long Island Sound
Study have all developed climate change indicators which will allow them to track climate-driven
changes and identify vulnerabilities or ecological thresholds.
Animals and Plants
Protection and propagation offish, shellfish, and wildlife is another focus of the Clean Water Act.
This includes the control of nonnative and invasive species and the reintroduction of native species
to maintain the biological integrity of an ecosystem. Animals and plants are sensitive to changes
in climate such as warmer air and water temperatures or changes in the frequency and intensity of
precipitation. Threatened and endangered species that are already stressed may be particularly
susceptible to climate change.
Temperature impacts
Species that cannot tolerate warmer temperatures may die or migrate and biota at the southern
edge of their range could disappear from ecosystems. Warmer winters can raise pest survival,
increase invasive species' ranges, and alter food sources and supplies. Changes in water temperature
will affect aquatic animals and plants. Habitats might become unsuitably warm for particular species
or for the food on which they depend; the dissolved oxygen capacity of water would decline; coral
bleaching episodes may occur more frequently; and some fish reproduction can be affected if they
require specific water temperatures.
Process impacts
During droughts, freshwater flow in streams will diminish and changing freshwater inputs might
affect salinity distribution in estuaries, particularly affecting shellfish habitat. Additionally, sensitive
species may not tolerate prolonged dry spells. Conversely, increases in frequency and intensity
of precipitation, will lead to greater soil erosion and can increase turbidity, decrease water clarity,
and increase sediment deposition in estuaries. This has particular consequences for the survival of
benthic species. Sea level rise would cause salinity to change, pushing saltier water farther upstream.
Sea level rise may also prevent sunlight from penetrating through the full depth of deeper water.
Animals that are dependent on coastal marshes might find that wetland losses will accelerate under
increasing rates of sea level rise. Ocean acidification brings into question the long term sustainability
of shellfish and changing pH could cause adverse affects to fish during particular development
stages. Furthermore, the effect of ocean acidification on calcifying plankton might lead to cascading
effects in the food chain.
Climate Ready Estuaries partners are working to document and monitor climate change impacts on
animals and plants in their watersheds and to determine how changing management techniques will
help improve the resilience of the biological integrity of estuarine systems. In partnership with EPAs
Office of Research and Development, the Massachusetts Bays Program and the San Francisco
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Estuary Program used expert elicitation to conduct vulnerability assessments of birds that use the
mudflats and salt marshes in their estuaries. The expert elicitation process was demonstrated to be a
useful methodology for adaptation cases with similar parameters. The Partnership for the Delaware
Estuary conducted a vulnerability assessment and developed a detailed case study of impacts and
adaptation options for bivalve shellfish. The Barnegat Bay Partnership held a series of stakeholder
workshops to advise its Climate Change Work Group and inform its adaptation activities. Participants
identified species loss, and migratory bird flyways among their concerns. The Tillamook Estuary
Partnership is updating their management plan to incorporate climate change impacts. Areas
of concern include pathogen contamination affects on shellfish, sedimentation affects on habitat
for bay shellfish and fish, and changes in living resources due to the loss of spawning habitat for
anadromous fish.
Human Uses
The Clean Water Act calls for managing and protecting water resources for human uses. In estuarine
areas, this includes allowing recreational activities in and on the water and protecting public water
supplies. The ways people use natural resources developed in conjunction with past climate
conditions, thus any changes to the generally prevailing climate will have impacts on human systems.
Public water supplies
Warmer summers and winters may lead to changes in water supply and demand. Water supply can
be affected by increased evaporation from reservoirs and ground water; summer water supplies that
are derived from snow pack might be threatened. Ground water may also become salinized due to
insufficient freshwater input or higher demand on aquifers. Also, with more frequent drought, ground
water tables would drop. Saltwater intrusion into ground water could be more likely and sea level
rise may also push salt fronts upstream past water diversion points. Sea level rise and increases in
precipitation will also cause water plants or pumps to be more vulnerable to flooding, inundation,
or erosion.
Where surface water is warmer, it can lead to increased growth of algae and microbes. Water
treatment processes might need to change in response to health threats and changes in water
quality (for example, warmer water can hold more dissolved material). Flood waters may increase
downstream turbidity, negatively affecting the quality of the waters. Finally, in cold places, warming
temperatures could induce more freeze/thaw cycles that can affect water infrastructure.
Recreation
Recreational activities in and on the water, such as swimming, fishing, or boating will also be
impacted due to climate change. Increases in water temperature can make harmful algal blooms
(HABs) more likely, and jellyfish might become more common in some regions. Decreased freshwater
flows in streams may impede recreational uses. More frequent or more intense bad weather would
reduce recreational opportunities. Increased precipitation will cause greater nonpoint source
pollution, which may also impede recreation. Sea level rise might cause beaches and public access
sites to be threatened by coastal erosion. Boaters could have to contend with decreased clearance
under bridges or invasive plants that might clog creeks and waterways. With more frequent drought,
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increased estuary salinity may drive away targeted recreational fish and salinity or temperature
changes can cause fish habitat ranges to shift. Desired fish might no longer be around, or they may
be present at different times of the year. Finally, ocean acidification could lead to the loss of shellfish
harvests, as well as to the degradation of eco-tourism resources and attractions, such as diving or
fishing.
Climate Ready Estuaries partners are considering how climate change impacts in their watersheds
will affect sustainability, and they are identifying potential adaptation options. Through consultation
with stakeholders and local decision makers, the Casco Bay Estuary Partnership identified the water
resource infrastructure community as a critical audience for adaptation related outreach, and then
developed a strategy to target this audience. The Charlotte Harbor Estuary Program completed
a vulnerability assessment for the City of Punta Gorda, FL The assessment found that seventeen
public water supply facilities and fourteen wastewater treatment facilities are likely to be impacted
by sea level rise by 2100. The Albemarle-Pamlico National Estuary Program is working with CRE
and EPA's Climate Ready Water Utilities program to develop its capacity to use CRWU's Climate
Resilience Evaluation and Awareness Tool (CREAT) with North Carolina municipalities to identify and
assess climate impacts on public utilities. The Morro Bay National Estuary Program is working with
local water suppliers to identify the environmental impacts from sea level rise and climate-driven
changes in water availability. The New York-New Jersey Harbor and Estuary Program worked
with the North Hudson (N.J.) Sewerage Authority to look at climate change impacts and identify
adaptation options for consideration. The New York-New Jersey Harbor and Estuary Program is
also assessing how climate change will affect public access sites and the human uses of the estuary
that are dependent on getting to the water.
The above descriptions of the National Estuary Programs' achievements through their Climate Ready
Estuaries projects are highly abbreviated. Please see their respective websites for more information.
Learn more about climate impacts in coastal watersheds
Climate Ready Estuaries Synthesis of Adaptation Options for Coastal Areas
water.epa.gov/type/oceb/cre/uploa d/CRE_Synthesis_1 -09.pdf
U.S. Climate Change Science Program Synthesis and Assessment Products
• SAP 4.1. Coastal Sensitivity to Sea-Level Rise: A Focus on the Mid-Atlantic Region.
• SAP 4.4. Preliminary Review of Adaptation Options for Climate-Sensitive Ecosystems and Resources.
library.globalchange.gov/products/assessments/
Coastal Areas Impacts and Adaptation
www.epa.gov/climatechange/impacts-adaptation/coasts.html
Climate Ready Water Utilities
water.epa.gov/infrastructure/watersecurity/climate/index.cfm
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Climate Ready Estuaries Partners, 2008-2012
Pacific
Puget Sound Partnership (WA)
Lower Columbia River Est. Partnership (WA/OR)
Tillamook Estuaries Partnership (OR)
San Francisco Estuary Partnership (CA)
Morro Bay National Estuary Program (CA)
Santa Monica Bay Restoration Commission (CA)
Gulf of Mexico
Mobile Bay National Estuary Program (AL)
Tampa Bay Estuary Program (FL)
Sarasota Bay Estuary Program (FL)
Charlotte Harbor National Estuary Program (FL)
Atlantic
Casco Bay Estuary Partnership (ME)
Piscataqua Region Estuaries Partnership (NH)
Massachusetts Bays Program (MA)
Buzzards Bay National Estuary Program (MA)
Narragansett Bay Estuary Program (Rl)
Long Island Sound Study (CT/NY)
Peconic Estuary Program (NY)
NY-NJ Harbor and Estuary Program (NY/NJ)
Barnegat Bay Partnership (NJ)
Partnership for the Delaware Estuary (NJ/PA/DE)
Albemarle-Pamlico NEP (NC)
Indian River Lagoon NEP (FL)
San Juan Bay Estuary Program (PR)
Office of Water
EPA-842-R-13-004
December 2012
e Climate Ready Estuaries 2012 Progress Report
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