Appendices to the Economic Analysis for the Final Stage 2 Disinfectants and Disinfection Byproducts Rule Volume II (F-H) ------- Office of Water (4606-M) EPA 815-R-05-010 December 2005 www.epa.gov/safewater ------- Appendix F Valuation of Stage 2 DBPR Benefits ------- ------- Matrix of Appendix F Contents Applicable Rule Alternatlve(s) All Alternatives Preferred Alternative Applicable DBP(s) TTHM & HAAS TTHM Non-fatal Case Valuation All All All All All All Non-Fatal Lymphoma Chronic Bronchitis Exhibit Description Valuation Inputs CPI Projections Income Elasticity Inputs Population, GDP, & Income Projections Income Elasticity Factors Valuation Factors Valuation of Cases Avoided Present Value of Benefits at 3% Discount Rate Present Value of Benefits at 7% Discount Rate Present Value of Benefits at 3% Discount Rate by Small and Large Size Categroies Present Value of Benefits at 7% Discount Rate by Small and Large Size Categroies Present Value of Benefits at 3% Discount Rate by Small and Large Size Categroies Present Value of Benefits at 7% Discount Rate by Small and Large Size Categroies Present Value of Benefits at 3% by System Size Present Value of Benefits at 7% by System Size Valuation of Cases Avoided Present Value of Benefits at 3% Discount Rate Present Value of Benefits at 7% Discount Rate Present Value of Benefits at 3% Discount Rate by Small and Large Size Categroies Present Value of Benefits at 7% Discount Rate by Small and Large Size Categroies Present Value of Benefits at 3% Discount Rate by Small and Large Size Categroies Present Value of Benefits at 7% Discount Rate by Small and Large Size Categroies Present Value of Benefits at 3% by System Size Present Value of Benefits at 7% by System Size Applicable Source Water Type(s) All All All All All All Surface Ground All All All Surface Ground All All Surface Ground All All All Surface Ground All All Applicable System Size All All All All All All <100 101-500 501-1,000 1,001-3,300 3.301-10K 10,001 -50K 50,001-100K 100,001-1 M >1 Million All <100 101-500 501-1,000 1,001-3,300 3.301-10K 10.001-50K 50,001 -100K 100,001-1 M >1 Million All All All All All All All All All All <100 101-500 501-1,000 1,001-3,300 3.301-10K 10,001 -50K 50.001-100K 100,001-1 M >1 Million All <100 101-500 501-1,000 1,001-3,300 3.301-10K 10,001 -50K 50.001-100K 100,001-1 M >1 Million All All All All All All All All All All Exhibit Number F.1a F.1b F.1c F.1d F.1e F.1f F.2a F.2b F.2c F.2d F.2e F.2f F.2g F.2h F.2i F.2J F.2k F.2I F.2m F.2n F.2o F.2p F.2q F.2r F.2s F.2t F.2u F.2v F.2w F.2x F.2y F.2z F.2aa F.2ab F.2ac F.3a F.3b F.3c F.3d F.3e F.3f F.3g F.3h F.3i F.3J F.3k F.3I F.3m F.3n F.3o F.3p F.3q F.3r F.3s F.3t F.3u F.3v F.3w F.3x F.3y F.3z F.3aa F.3ab F.3ac Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Matrix of Appendix F Contents (cont.) Applicable Rule Alternatlve(s) Preferred Alternative Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 3 Colon Cancer Sensitivity Analysis Rectal Cancer Sensitivity Analysis Applicable DBP(s) HAAS TTHM TTHM TTHM TTHM TTHM Non-fatal Case Valuation Non-Fatal Lymphoma Chronic Bronchitis Non-Fatal Lymphoma Chronic Bronchitis Non-Fatal Lymphoma Chronic Bronchitis Non-Fatal Lymphoma Chronic Bronchitis Non-Fatal Lymphoma Chronic Bronchitis Non-Fatal Lymphoma Chronic Bronchitis Exhibit Description Valuation of Cases Avoided Present Value of Benefits at 3% Discount Rate Present Value of Benefits at 7% Discount Rate Present Value of Benefits at 3% by System Size Present Value of Benefits at 7% by System Size Valuation of Cases Avoided Present Value of Benefits at 3% Discount Rate Present Value of Benefits at 7% Discount Rate Present Value of Benefits at 3% by System Size Present Value of Benefits at 7% by System Size Valuation of Cases Avoided Present Value of Benefits at 3% & 7% Discount Rate Present Value of Benefits at 3% by System Size Present Value of Benefits at 7% by System Size Valuation of Cases Avoided Present Value of Benefits at 3% & 7% Discount Rate Present Value of Benefits at 3% by System Size Present Value of Benefits at 7% by System Size Valuation of Cases Avoided Present Value of Benefits at 3% & 7% Discount Rate Present Value of Benefits at 3% by System Size Present Value of Benefits at 7% by System Size Valuation of Cases Avoided Present Value of Benefits at 3% & 7% Discount Rate Present Value of Benefits at 3% by System Size Present Value of Benefits at 7% by System Size Valuation of Cases Avoided Present Value of Benefits at 3% & 7% Discount Rate Present Value of Benefits at 3% by System Size Present Value of Benefits at 7% by System Size Valuation of Cases Avoided Present Value of Benefits at 3% & 7% Discount Rate Present Value of Benefits at 3% by System Size Present Value of Benefits at 7% by System Size Valuation of Cases Avoided Present Value of Benefits at 3% & 7% Discount Rate Present Value of Benefits at 3% by System Size Present Value of Benefits at 7% by System Size Valuation of Cases Avoided Present Value of Benefits at 3% & 7% Discount Rate Present Value of Benefits at 3% by System Size Present Value of Benefits at 7% by System Size Valuation of Cases Avoided Present Value of Benefits at 3% & 7% Discount Rate Present Value of Benefits at 3% by System Size Present Value of Benefits at 7% by System Size Valuation of Cases Avoided Present Value of Benefits at 3% & 7% Discount Rate Present Value of Benefits at 3% by System Size Present Value of Benefits at 7% by System Size Applicable Source Water Type(s) Surface Ground All All All All All Surface Ground All All All All All Surface, Ground, & All All All All Surface, Ground, & All All All All Surface, Ground, & All All All All Surface, Ground, & All All All All Surface, Ground, & All All All All Surface, Ground, & All All All All Surface, Ground, & All All All All Surface, Ground, & All All All All Surface, Ground, & All All All All Surface, Ground, & All All All All Applicable System Size All All All All All All All All All All All All All All All All All All All All All All All All All All All All All All All All All All All All All All All All All All All All All All All All All All All All All All Exhibit Number F.4a F.4b F.4c F.4d F.4e F.4f F.4g F.5a F.5b F.5c F.5d F.5e F.5f F.5g F.6a F.6b F.6c F.6d F.7a F.7b F.7c F.7d F.8a F.8b F.8c F.8d F.9a F.9b F.9c F.9d F.10a F.10b F.10c F.10d F.11a F.11b F.11c F.11d F.12a F.12b F.12c F.12d F.13a F.13b F.13c F.13d F.14a F.14b F.14c F.14d F.15a F.15b F.15c F.15d Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Matrix of Appendix F Contents (cont.) Preferred Alternative, ICR Matrix Method Preferred Alternative, SWAT Method TTHM TTHM Non-Fatal Lymphoma Non-Fatal Lymphoma Valuation of Cases Avoided Present Value of Benefits at 3% Discount Rate Present Value of Benefits at 7% Discount Rate Present Value of Benefits at 3% Discount Rate by Small and Large Size Categroies Present Value of Benefits at 7% Discount Rate by Small Present Value of Benefits at 3% Discount Rate by Small and Large Size Categroies Present Value of Benefits at 7% Discount Rate by Small and Large Size Categroies Present Value of Benefits at 3% by System Size Present Value of Benefits at 7% by System Size Valuation of Cases Avoided Present Value of Benefits at 3% Discount Rate Present Value of Benefits at 7% Discount Rate Present Value of Benefits at 3% Discount Rate by Small and Large Size Categroies Present Value of Benefits at 7% Discount Rate by Small Present Value of Benefits at 3% Discount Rate by Small and Large Size Categroies Present Value of Benefits at 7% Discount Rate by Small and Large Size Categroies Present Value of Benefits at 3% by System Size Present Value of Benefits at 7% by System Size Surface Ground All All All Surface Ground All All Surface Ground All All All Surface Ground All All <100 101-500 501-1,000 1,001-3,300 3.301-10K 10,001 -50K 50,001-100K 100,001-1 M >1 Million All <100 101-500 501-1,000 1,001-3,300 3.301-10K 10,001 -50K 50,001-100K 100,001-1 M >1 Million All All All All All All All All All All <100 101-500 501-1,000 1,001-3,300 3.301-10K 10,001 -50K 50,001-100K 100,001-1 M >1 Million All <100 101-500 501-1,000 1,001-3,300 3.301-10K 10,001 -50K 50,001-100K 100,001-1 M >1 Million All All All All All All All All All All F.20a F.20b F.20c F.20d F.20e F.20f F.20g F.20h F.20I F.20i F.20k F.20I F.20m F.20n F.20o F.20p F.20g F.20r F.20s F.20t F.20u F.20v F.20w F.20x F.20y F.20z F.20aa F.20ab F.20ac F.21a F.21b F.21c F.21d F.21e F.21f F.21g F.21h F.21I F.21J F.21k F.21I F.21m F.21n F.21o F.21p F.21g F.21r F.21s F.21t F.21u F.21v F.21w F.21x F.21y F.21z F.21aa F.21ab F.21ac Note: To minimize the size of this appendix, only summary spreadsheets are presented to outline the computational approach used for the Stage 2 DBPR benefits Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Section F.1 Input Parameters ------- ------- Exhibit F.1a Description of Valuation Parameters VSL Dist. Type Weibull Parameters Loc: 0 Scale: 5.32 Shape: 1.509588 Simulation Mean $ 4.80 Million (1990$) Source: Distribution adapted from The Benefits and Costs of the Clean Air Act, 1970-1990 (USEPA, 1997b), as derived from Viscusietal. (1991) WTP: Non-Fatal Cases - Non-Fatal Lymphoma Percent of VSL 58.3% Simulation Mean $ 2.80 Million (1990$) Note: Value derived as a forecast based on the VSL distribution above. Source: Percent of VSL derived as ratio of median risk tradeoff values reported in Magat et al. (1996) WTP: Non-Fatal Cases - Chronic Bronchitis Dist. Type Parameters Lognormal Mean: Median: Std Dev: Max: $ $ $ $ 587,500 535,600 264,826 1,500,000 Simulation Mean $ 0.58 Million (1998$) Note: Distribution correlated to the VSL distribution in the Monte Carlo analysis. Source: Stage 1 DBPR RIA (USEPA, 1998a), as derived from Viscusi et al. (1991) Morbidity Increment Point Estimate $ 93,927 (1996$) Source: Cost of Illness Handbook (USEPA, 1999a) Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.1b CPI Projections Year 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 CPI -All Items CPI (Annual Average) 130.7 136.2 140.3 144.5 148.2 152.4 156.9 160.5 163.0 166.6 172.2 177.1 179.9 184.0 Percent Change - 4.2% 3.0% 3.0% 2.6% 2.8% 3.0% 2.3% 1.6% 2.2% 3.4% 2.9% 1.6% 2.3% Adjustment Factor (1990 base) 1.00 1.04 1.07 1.11 1.13 1.17 1.20 1.23 1.25 1.27 1.32 1.36 1.38 1.41 Adjustment Factor (1998 base) 0.80 0.84 0.86 0.89 0.91 0.93 0.96 0.98 1.00 1.02 1.06 1.09 1.11 1.13 CPI - Medical Care CPI (Annual Average) 162.8 177.0 190.1 201.4 211.0 220.5 228.2 234.6 242.1 250.6 260.8 272.8 285.6 297.1 Percent Change - 8.7% 7.4% 5.9% 4.8% 4.5% 3.5% 2.8% 3.2% 3.5% 4.1% 4.6% 4.7% 4.0% Adjustment Factor (1996 base) 0.71 0.78 0.83 0.88 0.92 0.97 1.00 1.03 1.06 1.10 1.14 1.20 1.25 1.30 Notes: 1990 base factors (all items) used to update VSL and non-fatal lymphoma WTP values. 1998 base factors (all items) used to update chronic bronchitis WTP values (used in sensitivity analysis only). 1996 base factors (medical care) used to update morbidity increment values. Source: 1990-2003 CPI values from Bureau of Labor Statistics. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.1c Description of Elasticity Parameters Income Elasticity - Fatal Cancer Cases Central Estimate Low End High End Dist. Type Distribution Mean Income Elasticity Central Estimate Low End High End Dist. Type Distribution Mean 0.40 0.08 1.00 Triangular 0.49 - Non-Fatal Cancer Cases 0.45 0.25 0.60 Triangular 0.43 Note: Distributions are correlated in the Monte Carlo analysis. Source: Kleckner and Neumann (2000) Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.1d Population, GDP, and Per Capita Income Projections Year 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Population Estimates/ Projections (Thousands) 249,439 252,127 254,995 257,746 260,289 262,765 265,190 267,744 270,299 272,820 275,306 277,803 280,306 282,798 285,266 287,716 290,153 292,583 295,009 297,436 299,862 302,300 304,764 307,250 309,753 312,268 314,793 317,325 319,860 322,395 324,927 327,468 330,028 332,607 335,202 337,815 340,441 343,078 345,735 348,391 Percent Change - 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1 .0% 1 .0% 0.9% 1 .0% 1 .0% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% Real GDP Projection (Billions Chained 2000$) 7,112.5 7,100.5 7,336.6 7,532.7 7,835.5 8,031.7 8,328.9 8,703.5 9,066.9 9,470.3 9,817.0 9,866.6 10,083.0 10,398.0 10,730.7 11,245.8 11,718.1 12,093.1 12,419.6 12,767.4 13,124.9 13,466.1 13,802.8 14,147.8 14,501.5 14,864.1 15,235.7 15,616.6 16,007.0 16,407.2 16,817.3 17,237.8 17,668.7 18,110.4 18,563.2 19,027.3 19,502.9 19,990.5 20,490.3 21,002.5 Percent Change - -0.2% 3.3% 2.7% 4.0% 2.5% 3.7% 4.5% 4.2% 4.4% 3.7% 0.5% 2.2% 3.1% 3.2% 4.8% 4.2% 3.2% 2.7% 2.8% 2.8% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% Income (Real GDP per Capita) Projection (Thousands 2000$) 28,514 28,162 28,772 29,225 30,103 30,566 31,407 32,507 33,544 34,713 35,659 35,517 35,971 36,768 37,617 39,086 40,386 41,332 42,099 42,925 43,770 44,546 45,290 46,047 46,816 47,600 48,399 49,213 50,044 50,891 51,757 52,640 53,537 54,450 55,379 56,325 57,287 58,268 59,266 60,284 Percent Change - -1 .2% 2.2% 1 .6% 3.0% 1 .5% 2.8% 3.5% 3.2% 3.5% 2.7% -0.4% 1 .3% 2.2% 2.3% 3.9% 3.3% 2.3% 1 .9% 2.0% 2.0% 1 .8% 1 .7% 1 .7% 1 .7% 1 .7% 1 .7% 1 .7% 1 .7% 1 .7% 1 .7% 1 .7% 1 .7% 1 .7% 1 .7% 1 .7% 1 .7% 1 .7% 1 .7% 1 .7% Source: Population projections from US Census Bureau (NP-T1: Middle Series). 1990-2000 real GDP from Bureau of Economic Analysis, all other years calculated based on percent change projections from Congressional Budget Office (January 23, 2002). Projections for years beyond 2012 based on percent change reported for 2012 due to lack of other data. Income (Real GDP per Capita)=Real GDP/Population Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.1e Factors for Incorporation of Income Elasticity into Yearly Benefits Estimates Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Factors for Fatal Cancer Cases Mean Value 1.160 1.174 1.188 1.202 1.215 1.229 1.242 1.256 1.270 1.284 1.299 1.313 1.328 1.342 1.357 1.372 1.388 1.403 1.419 1.434 1.450 1.466 1.482 1.476 1.488 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) 1.062 1.067 1.072 1.076 1.081 1.086 1.090 1.095 1.100 1.104 1.109 1.114 1.119 1.123 1.128 1.133 1.137 1.142 1.147 1.151 1.156 1.161 1.165 1.164 1.167 Upper (95th %tile) 1.280 1.306 1.332 1.356 1.381 1.407 1.433 1.459 1.486 1.513 1.541 1.570 1.598 1.628 1.658 1.688 1.719 1.751 1.783 1.815 1.848 1.882 1.916 1.904 1.930 Factors for Non-Fatal Lymphoma Cases Mean Value 1.138 1.149 1.161 1.172 1.183 1.194 1.206 1.217 1.229 1.240 1.252 1.263 1.275 1.287 1.299 1.311 1.323 1.335 1.347 1.359 1.371 1.383 1.396 1.391 1.400 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) 1.096 1.104 1.112 1.120 1.127 1.135 1.142 1.150 1.158 1.165 1.173 1.180 1.188 1.196 1.204 1.211 1.219 1.227 1.235 1.242 1.250 1.258 1.266 1.263 1.269 Upper (95th %tile) 1.177 1.193 1.208 1.223 1.238 1.253 1.268 1.283 1.298 1.313 1.329 1.345 1.361 1.376 1.393 1.409 1.425 1.442 1.459 1.475 1.492 1.509 1.526 1.520 1.533 Factors for Chronic Bronchitis Cases Mean Value 1.063 1.074 1.085 1.096 1.106 1.117 1.128 1.139 1.150 1.161 1.172 1.183 1.194 1.206 1.217 1.229 1.240 1.252 1.264 1.276 1.288 1.300 1.312 1.307 1.316 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) 1.045 1.052 1.060 1.067 1.075 1.082 1.090 1.097 1.104 1.112 1.119 1.127 1.135 1.142 1.150 1.158 1.165 1.173 1.181 1.189 1.196 1.204 1.212 1.209 1.215 Upper (95th %tile) 1.081 1.095 1.109 1.123 1.137 1.151 1.165 1.179 1.193 1.208 1.222 1.237 1.252 1.267 1.283 1.298 1.314 1.330 1.345 1.361 1.378 1.394 1.410 1.404 1.417 Note: Income elasticity factors calculated as [(el,- e!2-12- h) / (e!2 -el, -!2-li)]; where e=income elasticity of WTP estimate, and l=income. Source: Derived using elasticity distributions and per capita GDP projections from preceeding Exhibits F.lcand F.1d. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.1f Value of VSL, WTP, and Morbidity Increment by Year Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Fatal Cancer Cases Morbidity Increment Point Estimate $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 VSL Mean Value $ 7.8 $ 7.9 $ 7.9 $ 8.0 $ 8.1 $ 8.2 $ 8.3 $ 8.4 $ 8.5 $ 8.6 $ 8.7 $ 8.8 $ 8.9 $ 9.0 $ 9.1 $ 9.2 $ 9.3 $ 9.4 $ 9.5 $ 9.6 $ 9.7 $ 9.8 $ 9.9 $ 9.9 $ 10.0 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ 1.2 $ 1.2 $ 1.2 $ 1.2 $ 1.2 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.4 $ 1.4 $ 1.4 $ 1.4 $ 1.4 $ 1.4 $ 1.4 $ 1.4 $ 1.5 $ 1.5 $ 1.5 Upper (95th %tile) $ 17.9 $ 18.1 $ 18.3 $ 18.6 $ 18.8 $ 19.0 $ 19.2 $ 19.4 $ 19.6 $ 19.9 $ 20.1 $ 20.3 $ 20.6 $ 20.9 $ 21.2 $ 21.4 $ 21.7 $ 22.0 $ 22.2 $ 22.4 $ 22.7 $ 23.0 $ 23.3 $ 23.2 $ 23.4 Non-Fatal Cancer Cases WTP - Non-Fatal Lymphoma Mean Value $ 4.4 $ 4.5 $ 4.5 $ 4.6 $ 4.6 $ 4.7 $ 4.7 $ 4.7 $ 4.8 $ 4.8 $ 4.9 $ 4.9 $ 5.0 $ 5.0 $ 5.1 $ 5.1 $ 5.2 $ 5.2 $ 5.2 $ 5.3 $ 5.3 $ 5.4 $ 5.4 $ 5.4 $ 5.5 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 Upper (95th %tile) $ 10.1 $ 10.2 $ 10.4 $ 10.5 $ 10.6 $ 10.7 $ 10.8 $ 10.8 $ 11.0 $ 11.1 $ 11.2 $ 11.3 $ 11.4 $ 11.5 $ 11.6 $ 11.7 $ 11.8 $ 11.9 $ 12.1 $ 12.2 $ 12.3 $ 12.4 $ 12.5 $ 12.5 $ 12.6 WTP -Chronic Bronchitis Mean Value $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.9 $ 0.9 $ 0.9 $ 0.9 $ 0.9 $ 0.9 $ 0.9 $ 0.9 $ 0.9 $ 0.9 $ 0.9 $ 0.9 $ 1.0 $ 1.0 $ 1.0 $ 1.0 $ 1.0 $ 1.0 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 Upper (95th %tile) $ 1.4 $ 1.5 $ 1.5 $ 1.5 $ 1.5 $ 1.5 $ 1.5 $ 1.6 $ 1.6 $ 1.6 $ 1.6 $ 1.6 $ 1.6 $ 1.6 $ 1.7 $ 1.7 $ 1.7 $ 1.7 $ 1.7 $ 1.7 $ 1.8 $ 1.8 $ 1.8 $ 1.8 $ 1.8 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Values derived based on valuation distributions and inflation (CPI) and income elasticity factors from Exhibits F.1a, F.1b, and F.1e. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Section F.2 Model Outputs - Preferred Alternative TTHM as Indicator Lymphoma for Non-Fatal Cases ------- ------- Exhibit F.2a Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Surface Water Systems Serving <100 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 3.3 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.5 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 7.5 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 2.1 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.3 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 4.9 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 3.9 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.6 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 9.1 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38b, E.38f, and E.38J. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.2b Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Surface Water Systems Serving 100-499 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.5 $ 0.7 $ 1.0 $ 1.2 $ 1.4 $ 1.5 $ 1.7 $ 1.8 $ 1.9 $ 2.0 $ 2.1 $ 2.2 $ 2.2 $ 2.3 $ 2.4 $ 2.4 $ 2.5 $ 30.4 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 4.6 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.4 $ 0.8 $ 1.2 $ 1.7 $ 2.3 $ 2.7 $ 3.1 $ 3.5 $ 3.9 $ 4.2 $ 4.4 $ 4.6 $ 4.8 $ 5.0 $ 5.2 $ 5.4 $ 5.5 $ 5.6 $ 5.7 $ 70.2 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.7 $ 0.8 $ 0.9 $ 1.0 $ 1.0 $ 1.1 $ 1.2 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.4 $ 1.5 $ 1.5 $ 1.6 $ 1.6 $ 1.7 $ 19.9 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 3.0 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.3 $ 0.6 $ 0.9 $ 1.2 $ 1.5 $ 1.8 $ 2.0 $ 2.2 $ 2.4 $ 2.6 $ 2.8 $ 2.9 $ 3.1 $ 3.3 $ 3.4 $ 3.6 $ 3.7 $ 3.8 $ 3.9 $ 46.0 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.3 $ 0.5 $ 0.8 $ 1.1 $ 1.4 $ 1.7 $ 1.8 $ 2.0 $ 2.1 $ 2.2 $ 2.3 $ 2.3 $ 2.4 $ 2.5 $ 2.5 $ 2.6 $ 2.6 $ 2.6 $ 2.7 $ 36.6 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 5.6 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.3 $ 0.7 $ 1.3 $ 1.9 $ 2.6 $ 3.3 $ 3.8 $ 4.2 $ 4.5 $ 4.8 $ 5.0 $ 5.2 $ 5.4 $ 5.6 $ 5.7 $ 5.8 $ 6.0 $ 6.1 $ 6.1 $ 6.2 $ 84.6 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38b, E.38f, and E.38J. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.2c Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Surface Water Systems Serving 500-999 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.3 $ 0.6 $ 0.9 $ 1.3 $ 1.7 $ 2.1 $ 2.4 $ 2.7 $ 2.9 $ 3.2 $ 3.4 $ 3.5 $ 3.7 $ 3.8 $ 4.0 $ 4.1 $ 4.2 $ 4.2 $ 4.3 $ 53.5 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.7 $ 8.1 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.3 $ 0.8 $ 1.4 $ 2.1 $ 3.0 $ 4.0 $ 4.8 $ 5.5 $ 6.2 $ 6.8 $ 7.3 $ 7.8 $ 8.2 $ 8.5 $ 8.9 $ 9.2 $ 9.4 $ 9.7 $ 9.8 $ 10.0 $ 123.7 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.7 $ 0.9 $ 1.2 $ 1.4 $ 1.5 $ 1.7 $ 1.8 $ 2.0 $ 2.1 $ 2.2 $ 2.4 $ 2.5 $ 2.6 $ 2.7 $ 2.8 $ 2.9 $ 3.0 $ 35.1 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 5.3 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.6 $ 1.0 $ 1.5 $ 2.1 $ 2.7 $ 3.1 $ 3.5 $ 3.9 $ 4.2 $ 4.6 $ 4.9 $ 5.2 $ 5.5 $ 5.7 $ 6.0 $ 6.3 $ 6.5 $ 6.7 $ 6.9 $ 81.1 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.6 $ 1.0 $ 1.4 $ 2.0 $ 2.6 $ 2.9 $ 3.2 $ 3.5 $ 3.7 $ 3.8 $ 4.0 $ 4.1 $ 4.2 $ 4.3 $ 4.4 $ 4.5 $ 4.6 $ 4.6 $ 4.7 $ 64.5 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 9.8 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.5 $ 1.3 $ 2.2 $ 3.3 $ 4.5 $ 5.9 $ 6.7 $ 7.4 $ 8.0 $ 8.5 $ 8.9 $ 9.2 $ 9.5 $ 9.8 $ 10.1 $ 10.3 $ 10.5 $ 10.7 $ 10.7 $ 10.9 $ 149.1 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38b, E.38f, and E.38J. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.2d Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Surface Water Systems Serving 1,000-3,299 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.8 $ 2.1 $ 3.8 $ 5.9 $ 8.4 $ 11.2 $ 13.5 $ 15.5 $ 17.4 $ 19.0 $ 20.5 $ 21.7 $ 22.8 $ 23.8 $ 24.7 $ 25.5 $ 26.3 $ 27.0 $ 27.3 $ 27.9 $ 345.2 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.3 $ 0.6 $ 0.9 $ 1.3 $ 1.7 $ 2.1 $ 2.4 $ 2.6 $ 2.9 $ 3.1 $ 3.3 $ 3.5 $ 3.6 $ 3.8 $ 3.9 $ 4.0 $ 4.1 $ 4.1 $ 4.2 $ 52.5 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.9 $ 4.8 $ 8.8 $ 13.6 $ 19.3 $ 25.8 $ 31.1 $ 35.8 $ 40.0 $ 43.9 $ 47.3 $ 50.1 $ 52.8 $ 55.1 $ 57.2 $ 59.1 $ 60.9 $ 62.6 $ 63.3 $ 64.7 $ 797.9 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.7 $ 1.6 $ 2.8 $ 4.2 $ 5.8 $ 7.6 $ 8.8 $ 9.9 $ 10.9 $ 11.8 $ 12.7 $ 13.6 $ 14.4 $ 15.2 $ 16.0 $ 16.7 $ 17.5 $ 18.2 $ 18.6 $ 19.2 $ 226.2 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.6 $ 0.9 $ 1.2 $ 1.3 $ 1.5 $ 1.7 $ 1.8 $ 1.9 $ 2.1 $ 2.2 $ 2.3 $ 2.4 $ 2.5 $ 2.6 $ 2.8 $ 2.8 $ 2.9 $ 34.4 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.6 $ 3.8 $ 6.5 $ 9.7 $ 13.3 $ 17.4 $ 20.2 $ 22.7 $ 25.0 $ 27.3 $ 29.4 $ 31.4 $ 33.3 $ 35.2 $ 37.0 $ 38.7 $ 40.5 $ 42.2 $ 43.2 $ 44.7 $ 523.0 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.4 $ 3.6 $ 6.2 $ 9.3 $ 12.7 $ 16.5 $ 18.9 $ 20.8 $ 22.4 $ 23.7 $ 24.8 $ 25.8 $ 26.6 $ 27.4 $ 28.0 $ 28.7 $ 29.2 $ 29.8 $ 29.9 $ 30.3 $ 416.1 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.5 $ 1.0 $ 1.4 $ 1.9 $ 2.5 $ 2.9 $ 3.2 $ 3.4 $ 3.6 $ 3.8 $ 3.9 $ 4.0 $ 4.2 $ 4.3 $ 4.4 $ 4.4 $ 4.5 $ 4.5 $ 4.6 $ 63.3 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 3.3 $ 8.2 $ 14.3 $ 21.4 $ 29.3 $ 37.9 $ 43.5 $ 47.9 $ 51.6 $ 54.7 $ 57.3 $ 59.5 $ 61.6 $ 63.3 $ 64.9 $ 66.3 $ 67.7 $ 69.1 $ 69.3 $ 70.3 $ 961.4 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38b, E.38f, and E.38J. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.2e Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Surface Water Systems Serving 3,300-9,999 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.3 $ 6.0 $ 10.9 $ 16.9 $ 24.0 $ 32.1 $ 38.6 $ 44.5 $ 49.7 $ 54.4 $ 58.5 $ 62.1 $ 65.3 $ 68.1 $ 70.7 $ 73.0 $ 75.2 $ 77.2 $ 78.1 $ 79.7 $ 987.5 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.4 $ 0.9 $ 1.7 $ 2.6 $ 3.7 $ 4.9 $ 5.9 $ 6.8 $ 7.6 $ 8.3 $ 8.9 $ 9.4 $ 9.9 $ 10.4 $ 10.7 $ 11.1 $ 11.4 $ 11.7 $ 11.8 $ 12.1 $ 150.1 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 5.3 $ 13.9 $ 25.1 $ 38.8 $ 55.1 $ 73.8 $ 88.9 $ 102.3 $ 114.5 $ 125.6 $ 135.2 $ 143.4 $ 150.9 $ 157.5 $ 163.5 $ 169.0 $ 174.2 $ 179.2 $ 181.1 $ 185.0 $ 2,282.5 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.0 $ 4.7 $ 8.1 $ 12.1 $ 16.6 $ 21.7 $ 25.1 $ 28.2 $ 31.1 $ 33.8 $ 36.4 $ 38.8 $ 41.2 $ 43.5 $ 45.7 $ 47.9 $ 50.0 $ 52.0 $ 53.3 $ 55.1 $ 647.2 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.3 $ 0.7 $ 1.2 $ 1.8 $ 2.5 $ 3.3 $ 3.8 $ 4.3 $ 4.7 $ 5.1 $ 5.5 $ 5.9 $ 6.3 $ 6.6 $ 7.0 $ 7.3 $ 7.6 $ 7.9 $ 8.1 $ 8.3 $ 98.4 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 4.5 $ 10.8 $ 18.6 $ 27.8 $ 38.2 $ 49.8 $ 57.7 $ 64.9 $ 71.6 $ 78.0 $ 84.0 $ 89.7 $ 95.3 $ 100.7 $ 105.8 $ 110.8 $ 115.7 $ 120.6 $ 123.5 $ 127.8 $ 1,496.0 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 4.1 $ 10.2 $ 17.9 $ 26.7 $ 36.5 $ 47.1 $ 54.1 $ 59.5 $ 64.0 $ 67.8 $ 71.0 $ 73.7 $ 76.1 $ 78.3 $ 80.2 $ 82.0 $ 83.6 $ 85.2 $ 85.5 $ 86.6 $1,190.2 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.6 $ 1.6 $ 2.7 $ 4.1 $ 5.6 $ 7.2 $ 8.3 $ 9.1 $ 9.8 $ 10.3 $ 10.8 $ 11.2 $ 11.6 $ 11.9 $ 12.2 $ 12.4 $ 12.7 $ 12.9 $ 13.0 $ 13.1 $ 181.0 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 9.5 $ 23.6 $ 41.0 $ 61.2 $ 83.8 $ 108.3 $ 124.3 $ 137.1 $ 147.5 $ 156.4 $ 163.8 $ 170.2 $ 176.1 $ 181.1 $ 185.7 $ 189.8 $ 193.7 $ 197.6 $ 198.2 $ 201.1 $ 2,750.2 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38b, E.38f, and E.38J. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.2f Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Surface Water Systems Serving 10,000-49,999 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 14.2 $ 36.6 $ 66.3 $ 102.7 $ 145.9 $ 188.3 $ 224.3 $ 256.9 $ 286.4 $ 312.5 $ 335.2 $ 354.8 $ 372.1 $ 387.7 $ 401 .8 $ 414.8 $ 426.8 $ 438.0 $ 442.7 $ 451 .5 $ 5,659.3 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.2 $ 5.6 $ 10.1 $ 15.7 $ 22.3 $ 28.8 $ 34.3 $ 39.2 $ 43.7 $ 47.6 $ 51.0 $ 54.0 $ 56.6 $ 59.0 $ 61.1 $ 63.0 $ 64.7 $ 66.3 $ 67.1 $ 68.3 $ 860.5 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 32.5 $ 84.2 $ 152.2 $ 235.8 $ 335.4 $ 433.1 $ 515.8 $ 591.3 $ 659.7 $ 721.2 $ 773.9 $ 819.2 $ 860.7 $ 896.9 $ 929.9 $ 959.9 $ 988.6 $ 1,016.1 $ 1 ,026.5 $ 1 ,047.8 $ 13,080.7 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 13.5 $ 31.9 $ 54.3 $ 80.3 $ 109.6 $ 135.0 $ 153.6 $ 170.3 $ 185.7 $ 200.2 $ 214.0 $ 227.2 $ 239.8 $ 252.0 $ 263.8 $ 275.3 $ 286.4 $ 297.2 $ 303.8 $ 313.2 $ 3,807.2 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.1 $ 4.9 $ 8.3 $ 12.3 $ 16.8 $ 20.6 $ 23.5 $ 26.0 $ 28.3 $ 30.5 $ 32.6 $ 34.6 $ 36.5 $ 38.3 $ 40.1 $ 41.8 $ 43.4 $ 45.0 $ 46.0 $ 47.4 $ 578.9 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 30.9 $ 73.3 $ 124.7 $ 184.5 $ 252.0 $ 310.5 $ 353.2 $ 391.9 $ 427.9 $ 462.1 $ 494.1 $ 524.6 $ 554.7 $ 583.1 $ 610.6 $ 637.1 $ 663.4 $ 689.5 $ 704.3 $ 726.9 $ 8,799.3 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 26.6 $ 65.1 $ 112.3 $ 166.5 $ 226.4 $ 277.3 $ 312.0 $ 339.7 $ 362.6 $ 381 .9 $ 398.5 $ 413.1 $ 426.0 $ 437.7 $ 448.3 $ 458.1 $ 467.2 $ 475.8 $ 477.7 $ 484.2 $ 6,757.1 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 4.1 $ 10.0 $ 17.2 $ 25.5 $ 34.6 $ 42.4 $ 47.7 $ 51.9 $ 55.3 $ 58.2 $ 60.7 $ 62.8 $ 64.8 $ 66.6 $ 68.1 $ 69.5 $ 70.8 $ 72.0 $ 72.4 $ 73.3 $ 1,027.8 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 61.1 $ 149.7 $ 257.9 $ 382.3 $ 520.4 $ 637.6 $ 717.6 $ 782.1 $ 835.4 $ 881.3 $ 920.1 $ 953.8 $ 985.3 $ 1,012.5 $ 1,037.5 $ 1,060.2 $ 1,082.3 $ 1,103.9 $ 1,107.6 $ 1,123.9 $ 15,612.6 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38b, E.38f, and E.38J. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.2g Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Surface Water Systems Serving 50,000-99,999 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 12.3 $ 31.9 $ 57.8 $ 89.5 $ 120.7 $ 147.5 $ 172.0 $ 194.2 $ 214.0 $ 231.1 $ 245.7 $ 258.6 $ 270.2 $ 280.6 $ 290.1 $ 298.9 $ 307.1 $ 314.8 $ 317.8 $ 323.9 $ 4,178.6 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.9 $ 4.9 $ 8.8 $ 13.7 $ 18.5 $ 22.6 $ 26.3 $ 29.7 $ 32.6 $ 35.2 $ 37.4 $ 39.3 $ 41.1 $ 42.7 $ 44.1 $ 45.4 $ 46.5 $ 47.7 $ 48.2 $ 49.0 $ 635.4 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 28.4 $ 73.4 $ 132.7 $ 205.5 $ 277.5 $ 339.2 $ 395.4 $ 447.1 $ 493.1 $ 533.3 $ 567.4 $ 597.2 $ 624.8 $ 649.1 $ 671.4 $ 691.8 $ 711.3 $ 730.2 $ 736.9 $ 751.6 $ 9,657.2 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 11.7 $ 27.8 $ 47.3 $ 70.0 $ 89.4 $ 103.2 $ 115.4 $ 126.7 $ 137.2 $ 147.2 $ 156.8 $ 165.9 $ 174.7 $ 183.2 $ 191.4 $ 199.4 $ 207.2 $ 214.7 $ 219.3 $ 225.9 $ 2,814.4 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.8 $ 4.3 $ 7.2 $ 10.7 $ 13.7 $ 15.8 $ 17.6 $ 19.3 $ 20.9 $ 22.4 $ 23.9 $ 25.2 $ 26.6 $ 27.9 $ 29.1 $ 30.3 $ 31.4 $ 32.5 $ 33.2 $ 34.2 $ 428.0 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 27.0 $ 63.9 $ 108.7 $ 160.8 $ 205.6 $ 237.3 $ 265.5 $ 291.6 $ 316.2 $ 339.8 $ 361.9 $ 383.0 $ 404.0 $ 423.7 $ 442.9 $ 461.5 $ 479.9 $ 498.2 $ 508.4 $ 524.2 $ 6,504.0 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 23.2 $ 56.7 $ 97.8 $ 145.1 $ 185.2 $ 212.1 $ 233.3 $ 250.7 $ 265.3 $ 277.7 $ 288.6 $ 298.2 $ 306.8 $ 314.7 $ 321 .8 $ 328.5 $ 334.8 $ 340.7 $ 341 .8 $ 346.3 $ 4,969.4 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 3.5 $ 8.7 $ 15.0 $ 22.2 $ 28.3 $ 32.4 $ 35.6 $ 38.3 $ 40.4 $ 42.3 $ 43.9 $ 45.4 $ 46.7 $ 47.9 $ 48.9 $ 49.9 $ 50.7 $ 51.6 $ 51.8 $ 52.4 $ 756.0 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 53.3 $ 130.4 $ 224.8 $ 333.2 $ 425.8 $ 487.8 $ 536.5 $ 577.0 $ 611.1 $ 641.0 $ 666.4 $ 688.6 $ 709.7 $ 727.9 $ 744.8 $ 760.3 $ 775.4 $ 790.3 $ 792.6 $ 803.8 $ 11,480.7 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38b, E.38f, and E.38J. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.2h Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Surface Water Systems Serving 100,000-999,999 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 54.6 $ 141.2 $ 255.5 $ 395.8 $ 505.7 $ 607.6 $ 702.0 $ 787.6 $ 862.2 $ 925.2 $ 980.1 $ 1,028.7 $ 1,072.4 $ 1,112.0 $ 1,148.3 $ 1,182.0 $ 1,213.4 $ 1,242.9 $ 1 ,254.4 $ 1,277.6 $ 16,749.1 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ - $ $ 8.4 $ 21.6 $ 39.1 $ 60.6 $ 77.3 $ 92.9 $ 107.2 $ 120.3 $ 131.5 $ 140.9 $ 149.2 $ 156.5 $ 163.1 $ 169.1 $ 174.6 $ 179.4 $ 183.9 $ 188.2 $ 190.1 $ 193.4 $ 2,547.2 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 125.4 $ 324.8 $ 586.9 $ 909.0 $ 1,162.4 $ 1,397.5 $ 1,614.3 $ 1,813.0 $ 1,986.3 $ 2,135.1 $ 2,262.8 $ 2,375.2 $ 2,480.1 $ 2,572.4 $ 2,657.5 $ 2,735.5 $ 2,810.7 $ 2,883.5 $ 2,908.6 $ 2,965.2 $ 38,706.4 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 51.9 $ 122.8 $ 209.3 $ 309.6 $ 368.7 $ 419.8 $ 466.3 $ 509.4 $ 550.0 $ 588.5 $ 625.3 $ 660.7 $ 694.8 $ 727.8 $ 759.7 $ 790.8 $ 821.1 $ 850.6 $ 868.0 $ 893.7 $ 11,288.8 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ - $ $ 7.9 $ 18.8 $ 32.0 $ 47.4 $ 56.4 $ 64.2 $ 71.2 $ 77.8 $ 83.9 $ 89.6 $ 95.2 $ 100.5 $ 105.7 $ 110.7 $ 115.5 $ 120.0 $ 124.5 $ 128.8 $ 131.5 $ 135.3 $ 1,716.9 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ - $ $ 119.3 $ 282.5 $ 480.9 $ 711.2 $ 847.5 $ 965.5 $ 1,072.3 $ 1,172.6 $ 1,267.0 $ 1,358.1 $ 1,443.7 $ 1,525.5 $ 1,606.9 $ 1,683.6 $ 1,758.2 $ 1,830.2 $ 1,901.9 $ 1,973.3 $ 2,012.6 $ 2,074.2 $ 26,086.9 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ - $ $ 102.5 $ 250.8 $ 432.8 $ 641.7 $ 766.0 $ 861.6 $ 938.7 $ 1 ,002.6 $ 1 ,056.6 $ 1,103.2 $ 1,144.0 $ 1,180.3 $ 1,212.9 $ 1,242.7 $ 1,270.1 $ 1,295.7 $ 1,319.8 $ 1 ,342.6 $ 1 ,346.8 $ 1 ,364.2 $ 19,875.7 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ - $ $ 15.7 $ 38.4 $ 66.2 $ 98.2 $ 117.1 $ 131.8 $ 143.4 $ 153.1 $ 161.1 $ 168.1 $ 174.2 $ 179.5 $ 184.4 $ 189.0 $ 193.1 $ 196.7 $ 200.1 $ 203.3 $ 204.1 $ 206.5 $ 3,023.9 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 235.6 $ 576.9 $ 994.4 $ 1,473.9 $ 1,760.9 $ 1,981.6 $ 2,158.7 $ 2,307.8 $ 2,434.2 $ 2,545.9 $ 2,641.2 $ 2,725.1 $ 2,805.3 $ 2,874.8 $ 2,939.4 $ 2,998.8 $ 3,057.1 $ 3,114.8 $ 3,122.7 $ 3,166.1 $ 45,915.3 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38b, E.38f, and E.38J. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.2i Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Surface Water Systems Serving >1,000,000 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 46.4 $ 120.2 $ 217.4 $ 336.8 $ 430.3 $ 517.1 $ 597.4 $ 670.3 $ 733.8 $ 787.4 $ 834.1 $ 875.5 $ 912.6 $ 946.4 $ 977.3 $ 1,005.9 $ 1,032.7 $ 1,057.8 $ 1,067.6 $ 1,087.3 $ 14,254.5 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 7.1 $ 18.4 $ 33.3 $ 51.6 $ 65.8 $ 79.1 $ 91.3 $ 102.4 $ 111.9 $ 119.9 $ 127.0 $ 133.2 $ 138.8 $ 143.9 $ 148.6 $ 152.7 $ 156.5 $ 160.2 $ 161.8 $ 164.6 $ 2,167.8 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 106.8 $ 276.4 $ 499.5 $ 773.7 $ 989.3 $ 1,189.3 $ 1,373.9 $ 1,543.0 $ 1,690.5 $ 1,817.1 $ 1,925.8 $ 2,021.4 $ 2,110.7 $ 2,189.3 $ 2,261.7 $ 2,328.1 $ 2,392.0 $ 2,454.0 $ 2,475.4 $ 2,523.6 $ 32,941.4 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 44.2 $ 104.5 $ 178.2 $ 263.5 $ 313.8 $ 357.3 $ 396.8 $ 433.5 $ 468.1 $ 500.8 $ 532.2 $ 562.3 $ 591.3 $ 619.4 $ 646.6 $ 673.0 $ 698.8 $ 723.9 $ 738.7 $ 760.6 $ 9,607.4 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 6.8 $ 16.0 $ 27.3 $ 40.3 $ 48.0 $ 54.6 $ 60.6 $ 66.2 $ 71.4 $ 76.3 $ 81.0 $ 85.5 $ 89.9 $ 94.2 $ 98.3 $ 102.2 $ 105.9 $ 109.6 $ 111.9 $ 115.1 $ 1,461.1 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 101.5 $ 240.5 $ 409.3 $ 605.3 $ 721.3 $ 821.7 $ 912.6 $ 997.9 $ 1,078.3 $ 1,155.8 $ 1,228.7 $ 1,298.3 $ 1,367.6 $ 1,432.8 $ 1,496.3 $ 1,557.6 $ 1,618.6 $ 1,679.4 $ 1,712.9 $ 1,765.3 $ 22,201.5 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 87.2 $ 213.5 $ 368.4 $ 546.1 $ 651.9 $ 733.3 $ 798.9 $ 853.2 $ 899.2 $ 938.9 $ 973.6 $ 1,004.5 $ 1,032.3 $ 1,057.6 $ 1,081.0 $ 1,102.7 $ 1,123.2 $ 1,142.6 $ 1,146.2 $ 1,161.0 $ 16,915.4 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 13.4 $ 32.7 $ 56.4 $ 83.6 $ 99.7 $ 112.1 $ 122.0 $ 130.3 $ 137.1 $ 143.0 $ 148.3 $ 152.8 $ 157.0 $ 160.9 $ 164.3 $ 167.4 $ 170.3 $ 173.0 $ 173.7 $ 175.7 $ 2,573.5 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 200.5 $ 491.0 $ 846.3 $ 1,254.4 $ 1,498.7 $ 1,686.5 $ 1,837.2 $ 1,964.1 $ 2,071.7 $ 2,166.7 $ 2,247.8 $ 2,319.3 $ 2,387.4 $ 2,446.6 $ 2,501.6 $ 2,552.2 $ 2,601.8 $ 2,650.9 $ 2,657.6 $ 2,694.5 $ 39,076.6 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38b, E.38f, and E.38J. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.2j Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (All Surface Water Systems) TTHM - Preferred Alternative Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 130.8 $ 338.6 $ 612.6 $ 949.0 $ 1,237.1 $ 1,506.7 $ 1,751.2 $ 1,972.9 $ 2,167.8 $ 2,334.5 $ 2,479.3 $ 2,606.9 $ 2,721.1 $ 2,824.5 $ 2,919.2 $ 3,006.6 $ 3,088.0 $ 3,164.5 $ 3,194.9 $ 3,254.9 $ 42,261.4 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 20.0 $ 51.8 $ 93.8 $ 145.3 $ 189.1 $ 230.4 $ 267.5 $ 301.3 $ 330.5 $ 355.6 $ 377.5 $ 396.5 $ 413.8 $ 429.6 $ 443.8 $ 456.4 $ 468.1 $ 479.1 $ 484.2 $ 492.6 $ 6,426.8 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 300.8 $ 778.8 $ 1,407.4 $ 2,179.9 $ 2,843.9 $ 3,465.2 $ 4,027.2 $ 4,541.5 $ 4,994.2 $ 5,387.3 $ 5,724.1 $ 6,019.2 $ 6,293.4 $ 6,534.2 $ 6,755.6 $ 6,958.4 $ 7,153.0 $ 7,341.5 $ 7,407.8 $ 7,554.2 $ 97,667.6 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 124.0 $ 293.8 $ 500.8 $ 740.8 $ 905.4 $ 1,046.5 $ 1,168.2 $ 1,280.4 $ 1,385.7 $ 1,485.4 $ 1,580.6 $ 1,671.9 $ 1,759.9 $ 1,844.9 $ 1,927.3 $ 2,007.3 $ 2,085.2 $ 2,161.1 $ 2,206.4 $ 2,272.6 $ 28,448.2 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 19.0 $ 45.0 $ 76.6 $ 113.4 $ 138.4 $ 160.0 $ 178.5 $ 195.5 $ 211.3 $ 226.3 $ 240.7 $ 254.3 $ 267.6 $ 280.6 $ 293.0 $ 304.7 $ 316.1 $ 327.2 $ 334.4 $ 343.9 $ 4,326.4 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 285.1 $ 675.7 $ 1,150.4 $ 1,701.7 $ 2,081.3 $ 2,406.7 $ 2,686.6 $ 2,947.4 $ 3,192.4 $ 3,427.9 $ 3,649.2 $ 3,860.3 $ 4,070.3 $ 4,267.9 $ 4,460.2 $ 4,645.7 $ 4,830.1 $ 5,013.8 $ 5,115.9 $ 5,274.3 $ 65,742.7 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 245.4 $ 600.8 $ 1,037.0 $ 1,537.6 $ 1,882.0 $ 2,152.0 $ 2,360.7 $ 2,531.8 $ 2,675.8 $ 2,799.2 $ 2,906.8 $ 3,002.1 $ 3,087.6 $ 3,165.2 $ 3,236.6 $ 3,303.0 $ 3,365.3 $ 3,424.2 $ 3,435.4 $ 3,480.4 $ 50,228.9 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 37.6 $ 92.0 $ 158.7 $ 235.4 $ 287.7 $ 329.1 $ 360.6 $ 386.6 $ 408.0 $ 426.4 $ 442.6 $ 456.6 $ 469.5 $ 481.4 $ 492.0 $ 501.4 $ 510.1 $ 518.5 $ 520.6 $ 526.7 $ 7,641.4 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 564.2 $ 1,381.8 $ 2,382.3 $ 3,531.9 $ 4,326.3 $ 4,949.2 $ 5,428.8 $ 5,828.0 $ 6,164.5 $ 6,459.8 $ 6,711.1 $ 6,931.5 $ 7,140.9 $ 7,322.3 $ 7,490.3 $ 7,644.4 $ 7,795.2 $ 7,944.0 $ 7,965.5 $ 8,077.5 $ 116,039.6 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38b, E.38f, and E.38J. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.2k Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Ground Water Systems Serving <100 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 7.2 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 1.1 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 0.7 $ 0.8 $ 0.9 $ 1.0 $ 1.0 $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 1.2 $ 1.2 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 16.6 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 4.7 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.7 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.9 $ 0.9 $ 0.9 $ 10.9 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 8.7 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 1.3 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.6 $ 0.8 $ 0.9 $ 1.0 $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 1.2 $ 1.2 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.4 $ 1.4 $ 1.4 $ 1.4 $ 1.4 $ 1.5 $ 20.0 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38c, E.38g, and E.38k. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.2I Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Ground Water Systems Serving 100-499 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.3 $ 0.6 $ 0.9 $ 1.3 $ 1.7 $ 2.1 $ 2.4 $ 2.7 $ 2.9 $ 3.1 $ 3.3 $ 3.5 $ 3.7 $ 3.8 $ 3.9 $ 4.0 $ 4.2 $ 4.2 $ 4.3 $ 53.1 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 8.1 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.3 $ 0.7 $ 1.3 $ 2.1 $ 3.0 $ 4.0 $ 4.8 $ 5.5 $ 6.2 $ 6.7 $ 7.3 $ 7.7 $ 8.1 $ 8.5 $ 8.8 $ 9.1 $ 9.4 $ 9.6 $ 9.7 $ 9.9 $ 122.7 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.6 $ 0.9 $ 1.2 $ 1.3 $ 1.5 $ 1.7 $ 1.8 $ 2.0 $ 2.1 $ 2.2 $ 2.3 $ 2.5 $ 2.6 $ 2.7 $ 2.8 $ 2.9 $ 3.0 $ 34.8 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 5.3 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.6 $ 1.0 $ 1.5 $ 2.1 $ 2.7 $ 3.1 $ 3.5 $ 3.8 $ 4.2 $ 4.5 $ 4.8 $ 5.1 $ 5.4 $ 5.7 $ 6.0 $ 6.2 $ 6.5 $ 6.6 $ 6.9 $ 80.4 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.6 $ 1.0 $ 1.4 $ 2.0 $ 2.5 $ 2.9 $ 3.2 $ 3.4 $ 3.6 $ 3.8 $ 4.0 $ 4.1 $ 4.2 $ 4.3 $ 4.4 $ 4.5 $ 4.6 $ 4.6 $ 4.7 $ 64.0 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 9.7 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.5 $ 1.3 $ 2.2 $ 3.3 $ 4.5 $ 5.8 $ 6.7 $ 7.4 $ 7.9 $ 8.4 $ 8.8 $ 9.1 $ 9.5 $ 9.7 $ 10.0 $ 10.2 $ 10.4 $ 10.6 $ 10.7 $ 10.8 $ 147.8 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38c, E.38g, and E.38k. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.2m Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Ground Water Systems Serving 500-999 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.3 $ 0.6 $ 1.0 $ 1.4 $ 1.8 $ 2.2 $ 2.5 $ 2.8 $ 3.1 $ 3.3 $ 3.6 $ 3.7 $ 3.9 $ 4.0 $ 4.2 $ 4.3 $ 4.4 $ 4.5 $ 4.6 $ 56.5 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 8.6 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.3 $ 0.8 $ 1.4 $ 2.2 $ 3.2 $ 4.2 $ 5.1 $ 5.9 $ 6.5 $ 7.2 $ 7.7 $ 8.2 $ 8.6 $ 9.0 $ 9.4 $ 9.7 $ 10.0 $ 10.2 $ 10.4 $ 10.6 $ 130.5 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.3 $ 0.5 $ 0.7 $ 1.0 $ 1.2 $ 1.4 $ 1.6 $ 1.8 $ 1.9 $ 2.1 $ 2.2 $ 2.4 $ 2.5 $ 2.6 $ 2.7 $ 2.9 $ 3.0 $ 3.0 $ 3.1 $ 37.0 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 5.6 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.3 $ 0.6 $ 1.1 $ 1.6 $ 2.2 $ 2.8 $ 3.3 $ 3.7 $ 4.1 $ 4.5 $ 4.8 $ 5.1 $ 5.5 $ 5.8 $ 6.1 $ 6.3 $ 6.6 $ 6.9 $ 7.1 $ 7.3 $ 85.5 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.6 $ 1.0 $ 1.5 $ 2.1 $ 2.7 $ 3.1 $ 3.4 $ 3.7 $ 3.9 $ 4.1 $ 4.2 $ 4.4 $ 4.5 $ 4.6 $ 4.7 $ 4.8 $ 4.9 $ 4.9 $ 5.0 $ 68.0 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 10.3 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.5 $ 1.3 $ 2.3 $ 3.5 $ 4.8 $ 6.2 $ 7.1 $ 7.8 $ 8.4 $ 8.9 $ 9.4 $ 9.7 $ 10.1 $ 10.4 $ 10.6 $ 10.9 $ 11.1 $ 11.3 $ 11.3 $ 11.5 $ 157.2 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38c, E.38g, and E.38k. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.2n Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Ground Water Systems Serving 1,000-3,299 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.4 $ 1.0 $ 1.9 $ 2.9 $ 4.1 $ 5.5 $ 6.7 $ 7.7 $ 8.6 $ 9.4 $ 10.1 $ 10.7 $ 11.3 $ 11.8 $ 12.2 $ 12.6 $ 13.0 $ 13.3 $ 13.5 $ 13.8 $ 170.4 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.6 $ 0.8 $ 1.0 $ 1.2 $ 1.3 $ 1.4 $ 1.5 $ 1.6 $ 1.7 $ 1.8 $ 1.9 $ 1.9 $ 2.0 $ 2.0 $ 2.0 $ 2.1 $ 25.9 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.9 $ 2.4 $ 4.3 $ 6.7 $ 9.5 $ 12.7 $ 15.3 $ 17.7 $ 19.8 $ 21.7 $ 23.3 $ 24.8 $ 26.1 $ 27.2 $ 28.2 $ 29.2 $ 30.1 $ 30.9 $ 31.3 $ 31.9 $ 394.0 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.3 $ 0.8 $ 1.4 $ 2.1 $ 2.9 $ 3.7 $ 4.3 $ 4.9 $ 5.4 $ 5.8 $ 6.3 $ 6.7 $ 7.1 $ 7.5 $ 7.9 $ 8.3 $ 8.6 $ 9.0 $ 9.2 $ 9.5 $ 111.7 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.6 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.8 $ 0.9 $ 1.0 $ 1.0 $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 1.2 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.4 $ 1.4 $ 1.4 $ 17.0 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.8 $ 1.9 $ 3.2 $ 4.8 $ 6.6 $ 8.6 $ 10.0 $ 11.2 $ 12.4 $ 13.5 $ 14.5 $ 15.5 $ 16.5 $ 17.4 $ 18.3 $ 19.1 $ 20.0 $ 20.8 $ 21.3 $ 22.1 $ 258.3 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.7 $ 1.8 $ 3.1 $ 4.6 $ 6.3 $ 8.1 $ 9.3 $ 10.3 $ 11.1 $ 11.7 $ 12.2 $ 12.7 $ 13.1 $ 13.5 $ 13.8 $ 14.2 $ 14.4 $ 14.7 $ 14.8 $ 15.0 $ 205.4 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.3 $ 0.5 $ 0.7 $ 1.0 $ 1.2 $ 1.4 $ 1.6 $ 1.7 $ 1.8 $ 1.9 $ 1.9 $ 2.0 $ 2.1 $ 2.1 $ 2.1 $ 2.2 $ 2.2 $ 2.2 $ 2.3 $ 31.2 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.6 $ 4.1 $ 7.1 $ 10.6 $ 14.5 $ 18.7 $ 21.5 $ 23.7 $ 25.5 $ 27.0 $ 28.3 $ 29.4 $ 30.4 $ 31.3 $ 32.0 $ 32.8 $ 33.4 $ 34.1 $ 34.2 $ 34.7 $ 474.7 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38c, E.38g, and E.38k. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.2o Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Ground Water Systems Serving 3,300-9,999 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.6 $ 1.6 $ 3.0 $ 4.6 $ 6.5 $ 8.8 $ 10.5 $ 12.1 $ 13.6 $ 14.9 $ 16.0 $ 17.0 $ 17.8 $ 18.6 $ 19.3 $ 19.9 $ 20.5 $ 21.1 $ 21.3 $ 21.8 $ 269.6 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.3 $ 0.5 $ 0.7 $ 1.0 $ 1.3 $ 1.6 $ 1.9 $ 2.1 $ 2.3 $ 2.4 $ 2.6 $ 2.7 $ 2.8 $ 2.9 $ 3.0 $ 3.1 $ 3.2 $ 3.2 $ 3.3 $ 41.0 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.5 $ 3.8 $ 6.8 $ 10.6 $ 15.1 $ 20.2 $ 24.3 $ 27.9 $ 31.3 $ 34.3 $ 36.9 $ 39.2 $ 41.2 $ 43.0 $ 44.7 $ 46.1 $ 47.6 $ 48.9 $ 49.5 $ 50.5 $ 623.2 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.5 $ 1.3 $ 2.2 $ 3.3 $ 4.5 $ 5.9 $ 6.9 $ 7.7 $ 8.5 $ 9.2 $ 9.9 $ 10.6 $ 11.3 $ 11.9 $ 12.5 $ 13.1 $ 13.6 $ 14.2 $ 14.5 $ 15.0 $ 176.7 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.5 $ 0.7 $ 0.9 $ 1.0 $ 1.2 $ 1.3 $ 1.4 $ 1.5 $ 1.6 $ 1.7 $ 1.8 $ 1.9 $ 2.0 $ 2.1 $ 2.1 $ 2.2 $ 2.3 $ 26.9 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.2 $ 3.0 $ 5.1 $ 7.6 $ 10.4 $ 13.6 $ 15.8 $ 17.7 $ 19.6 $ 21.3 $ 22.9 $ 24.5 $ 26.0 $ 27.5 $ 28.9 $ 30.3 $ 31.6 $ 32.9 $ 33.7 $ 34.9 $ 408.5 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.1 $ 2.8 $ 4.9 $ 7.3 $ 10.0 $ 12.9 $ 14.8 $ 16.3 $ 17.5 $ 18.5 $ 19.4 $ 20.1 $ 20.8 $ 21.4 $ 21.9 $ 22.4 $ 22.8 $ 23.3 $ 23.3 $ 23.7 $ 324.9 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.4 $ 0.7 $ 1.1 $ 1.5 $ 2.0 $ 2.3 $ 2.5 $ 2.7 $ 2.8 $ 3.0 $ 3.1 $ 3.2 $ 3.3 $ 3.3 $ 3.4 $ 3.5 $ 3.5 $ 3.5 $ 3.6 $ 49.4 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.6 $ 6.4 $ 11.2 $ 16.7 $ 22.9 $ 29.6 $ 33.9 $ 37.4 $ 40.3 $ 42.7 $ 44.7 $ 46.5 $ 48.1 $ 49.4 $ 50.7 $ 51.8 $ 52.9 $ 53.9 $ 54.1 $ 54.9 $ 750.9 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38c, E.38g, and E.38k. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.2p Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Ground Water Systems Serving 10,000-49,999 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.0 $ 2.5 $ 4.5 $ 7.0 $ 9.9 $ 12.8 $ 15.2 $ 17.4 $ 19.3 $ 21.1 $ 22.6 $ 23.9 $ 25.0 $ 26.1 $ 27.0 $ 27.9 $ 28.7 $ 29.5 $ 29.8 $ 30.4 $ 381.5 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.4 $ 0.7 $ 1.1 $ 1.5 $ 2.0 $ 2.3 $ 2.7 $ 2.9 $ 3.2 $ 3.4 $ 3.6 $ 3.8 $ 4.0 $ 4.1 $ 4.2 $ 4.4 $ 4.5 $ 4.5 $ 4.6 $ 58.0 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.2 $ 5.7 $ 10.4 $ 16.1 $ 22.9 $ 29.5 $ 35.0 $ 40.0 $ 44.5 $ 48.6 $ 52.1 $ 55.1 $ 57.9 $ 60.3 $ 62.5 $ 64.6 $ 66.5 $ 68.4 $ 69.1 $ 70.5 $ 881.7 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.8 $ 2.0 $ 3.4 $ 5.0 $ 6.9 $ 8.5 $ 9.8 $ 11.0 $ 12.0 $ 13.0 $ 14.0 $ 14.9 $ 15.8 $ 16.7 $ 17.5 $ 18.3 $ 19.1 $ 19.9 $ 20.4 $ 21.0 $ 250.2 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.3 $ 0.5 $ 0.8 $ 1.1 $ 1.3 $ 1.5 $ 1.7 $ 1.8 $ 2.0 $ 2.1 $ 2.3 $ 2.4 $ 2.5 $ 2.7 $ 2.8 $ 2.9 $ 3.0 $ 3.1 $ 3.2 $ 38.0 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.9 $ 4.5 $ 7.7 $ 11.5 $ 15.8 $ 19.7 $ 22.6 $ 25.2 $ 27.7 $ 30.1 $ 32.4 $ 34.5 $ 36.6 $ 38.6 $ 40.6 $ 42.4 $ 44.3 $ 46.2 $ 47.2 $ 48.8 $ 578.4 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.7 $ 4.2 $ 7.4 $ 11.1 $ 15.1 $ 18.6 $ 21.1 $ 23.1 $ 24.7 $ 26.0 $ 27.2 $ 28.2 $ 29.1 $ 29.9 $ 30.6 $ 31.3 $ 31.9 $ 32.4 $ 32.5 $ 33.0 $ 459.0 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.3 $ 0.7 $ 1.1 $ 1.7 $ 2.3 $ 2.8 $ 3.2 $ 3.5 $ 3.8 $ 4.0 $ 4.1 $ 4.3 $ 4.4 $ 4.5 $ 4.7 $ 4.7 $ 4.8 $ 4.9 $ 4.9 $ 5.0 $ 69.8 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 3.9 $ 9.8 $ 17.0 $ 25.4 $ 34.7 $ 42.8 $ 48.5 $ 53.1 $ 56.8 $ 60.1 $ 62.8 $ 65.1 $ 67.3 $ 69.1 $ 70.8 $ 72.3 $ 73.8 $ 75.2 $ 75.5 $ 76.5 $ 1,060.5 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38c, E.38g, and E.38k. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.2q Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Ground Water Systems Serving 50,000-99,999 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.4 $ 1.0 $ 1.9 $ 2.9 $ 4.0 $ 4.8 $ 5.6 $ 6.3 $ 6.9 $ 7.5 $ 7.9 $ 8.4 $ 8.7 $ 9.1 $ 9.4 $ 9.7 $ 9.9 $ 10.2 $ 10.3 $ 10.5 $ 135.3 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.6 $ 0.7 $ 0.9 $ 1.0 $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 1.2 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.4 $ 1.4 $ 1.5 $ 1.5 $ 1.5 $ 1.6 $ 1.6 $ 20.6 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.9 $ 2.4 $ 4.4 $ 6.7 $ 9.1 $ 11.1 $ 12.9 $ 14.5 $ 16.0 $ 17.2 $ 18.3 $ 19.3 $ 20.2 $ 21.0 $ 21.7 $ 22.4 $ 23.0 $ 23.6 $ 23.8 $ 24.3 $ 312.8 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.3 $ 0.8 $ 1.4 $ 2.1 $ 2.7 $ 3.2 $ 3.6 $ 3.9 $ 4.3 $ 4.6 $ 4.9 $ 5.3 $ 5.6 $ 5.8 $ 6.1 $ 6.4 $ 6.7 $ 6.9 $ 7.1 $ 7.3 $ 89.0 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.9 $ 0.9 $ 1.0 $ 1.0 $ 1.0 $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 13.5 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.8 $ 1.9 $ 3.2 $ 4.8 $ 6.2 $ 7.3 $ 8.2 $ 9.1 $ 9.9 $ 10.7 $ 11.4 $ 12.1 $ 12.8 $ 13.5 $ 14.2 $ 14.8 $ 15.4 $ 16.0 $ 16.4 $ 16.9 $ 205.6 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.7 $ 1.8 $ 3.1 $ 4.6 $ 6.0 $ 6.9 $ 7.6 $ 8.2 $ 8.7 $ 9.1 $ 9.5 $ 9.8 $ 10.1 $ 10.3 $ 10.6 $ 10.8 $ 11.0 $ 11.2 $ 11.2 $ 11.3 $ 162.2 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.3 $ 0.5 $ 0.7 $ 0.9 $ 1.1 $ 1.2 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.4 $ 1.4 $ 1.5 $ 1.5 $ 1.6 $ 1.6 $ 1.6 $ 1.7 $ 1.7 $ 1.7 $ 1.7 $ 24.7 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.6 $ 4.1 $ 7.1 $ 10.6 $ 13.7 $ 15.8 $ 17.5 $ 18.8 $ 20.0 $ 21.0 $ 21.9 $ 22.6 $ 23.3 $ 23.9 $ 24.4 $ 24.9 $ 25.4 $ 25.9 $ 25.9 $ 26.3 $ 374.8 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38c, E.38g, and E.38k. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.2r Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Ground Water Systems Serving 100,000-999,999 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.1 $ 2.9 $ 5.3 $ 8.1 $ 10.4 $ 12.4 $ 14.3 $ 16.0 $ 17.5 $ 18.7 $ 19.8 $ 20.8 $ 21.7 $ 22.5 $ 23.3 $ 23.9 $ 24.6 $ 25.2 $ 25.4 $ 25.9 $ 339.9 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.4 $ 0.8 $ 1.2 $ 1.6 $ 1.9 $ 2.2 $ 2.4 $ 2.7 $ 2.9 $ 3.0 $ 3.2 $ 3.3 $ 3.4 $ 3.5 $ 3.6 $ 3.7 $ 3.8 $ 3.9 $ 3.9 $ 51.7 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.6 $ 6.7 $ 12.1 $ 18.7 $ 23.9 $ 28.6 $ 32.9 $ 36.8 $ 40.3 $ 43.3 $ 45.8 $ 48.1 $ 50.2 $ 52.1 $ 53.8 $ 55.4 $ 56.9 $ 58.4 $ 58.9 $ 60.1 $ 785.5 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.9 $ 2.3 $ 3.9 $ 5.8 $ 7.0 $ 8.1 $ 9.0 $ 9.9 $ 10.8 $ 11.6 $ 12.4 $ 13.1 $ 13.8 $ 14.6 $ 15.2 $ 15.9 $ 16.5 $ 17.2 $ 17.6 $ 18.1 $ 223.7 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.3 $ 0.6 $ 0.9 $ 1.1 $ 1.2 $ 1.4 $ 1.5 $ 1.6 $ 1.8 $ 1.9 $ 2.0 $ 2.1 $ 2.2 $ 2.3 $ 2.4 $ 2.5 $ 2.6 $ 2.7 $ 2.7 $ 34.0 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.2 $ 5.2 $ 9.0 $ 13.4 $ 16.1 $ 18.5 $ 20.7 $ 22.8 $ 24.8 $ 26.8 $ 28.6 $ 30.3 $ 32.0 $ 33.7 $ 35.3 $ 36.8 $ 38.3 $ 39.8 $ 40.7 $ 42.0 $ 517.0 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.0 $ 4.9 $ 8.6 $ 12.8 $ 15.5 $ 17.5 $ 19.2 $ 20.5 $ 21.7 $ 22.7 $ 23.5 $ 24.3 $ 24.9 $ 25.5 $ 26.1 $ 26.6 $ 27.1 $ 27.5 $ 27.6 $ 28.0 $ 406.6 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.3 $ 0.8 $ 1.3 $ 2.0 $ 2.4 $ 2.7 $ 2.9 $ 3.1 $ 3.3 $ 3.5 $ 3.6 $ 3.7 $ 3.8 $ 3.9 $ 4.0 $ 4.0 $ 4.1 $ 4.2 $ 4.2 $ 4.2 $ 61.9 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 4.6 $ 11.3 $ 19.7 $ 29.5 $ 35.6 $ 40.3 $ 44.1 $ 47.3 $ 50.0 $ 52.3 $ 54.3 $ 56.0 $ 57.7 $ 59.1 $ 60.4 $ 61.6 $ 62.8 $ 63.9 $ 64.0 $ 64.9 $ 939.2 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38c, E.38g, and E.38k. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.2s Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Ground Water Systems Serving >1,000,000 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.5 $ 0.9 $ 1.4 $ 1.7 $ 2.1 $ 2.4 $ 2.7 $ 2.9 $ 3.1 $ 3.3 $ 3.5 $ 3.6 $ 3.7 $ 3.9 $ 4.0 $ 4.1 $ 4.2 $ 4.2 $ 4.3 $ 56.6 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.7 $ 8.6 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.4 $ 1.1 $ 2.0 $ 3.1 $ 4.0 $ 4.8 $ 5.5 $ 6.1 $ 6.7 $ 7.2 $ 7.6 $ 8.0 $ 8.4 $ 8.7 $ 9.0 $ 9.2 $ 9.5 $ 9.7 $ 9.8 $ 10.0 $ 130.8 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.4 $ 0.6 $ 1.0 $ 1.2 $ 1.3 $ 1.5 $ 1.7 $ 1.8 $ 1.9 $ 2.1 $ 2.2 $ 2.3 $ 2.4 $ 2.5 $ 2.6 $ 2.8 $ 2.9 $ 2.9 $ 3.0 $ 37.3 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 5.7 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.4 $ 0.9 $ 1.5 $ 2.2 $ 2.7 $ 3.1 $ 3.5 $ 3.8 $ 4.1 $ 4.5 $ 4.8 $ 5.0 $ 5.3 $ 5.6 $ 5.9 $ 6.1 $ 6.4 $ 6.6 $ 6.8 $ 7.0 $ 86.1 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.3 $ 0.8 $ 1.4 $ 2.1 $ 2.6 $ 2.9 $ 3.2 $ 3.4 $ 3.6 $ 3.8 $ 3.9 $ 4.0 $ 4.2 $ 4.3 $ 4.3 $ 4.4 $ 4.5 $ 4.6 $ 4.6 $ 4.7 $ 67.7 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 10.3 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.8 $ 1.9 $ 3.3 $ 4.9 $ 5.9 $ 6.7 $ 7.3 $ 7.9 $ 8.3 $ 8.7 $ 9.0 $ 9.3 $ 9.6 $ 9.8 $ 10.1 $ 10.3 $ 10.4 $ 10.6 $ 10.7 $ 10.8 $ 156.4 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38c, E.38g, and E.38k. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.2t Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (All Ground Water Systems) TTHM - Preferred Alternative Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 4.0 $ 10.3 $ 18.7 $ 29.0 $ 39.5 $ 50.2 $ 59.3 $ 67.4 $ 74.7 $ 81.1 $ 86.7 $ 91.5 $ 95.9 $ 99.8 $ 103.4 $ 106.6 $ 109.7 $ 112.6 $ 113.8 $ 116.0 $ 1,470.1 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.6 $ 1.6 $ 2.9 $ 4.4 $ 6.0 $ 7.7 $ 9.1 $ 10.3 $ 11.4 $ 12.3 $ 13.2 $ 13.9 $ 14.6 $ 15.2 $ 15.7 $ 16.2 $ 16.6 $ 17.0 $ 17.2 $ 17.6 $ 223.5 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 9.1 $ 23.8 $ 43.0 $ 66.6 $ 90.9 $ 115.5 $ 136.4 $ 155.2 $ 172.0 $ 187.1 $ 200.1 $ 211.3 $ 221.7 $ 230.9 $ 239.2 $ 246.8 $ 254.1 $ 261.1 $ 263.8 $ 269.2 $ 3,397.8 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 3.4 $ 8.1 $ 13.9 $ 20.7 $ 27.1 $ 33.3 $ 38.1 $ 42.4 $ 46.4 $ 50.3 $ 53.9 $ 57.4 $ 60.8 $ 64.0 $ 67.2 $ 70.3 $ 73.3 $ 76.2 $ 78.0 $ 80.5 $ 965.1 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.5 $ 1.2 $ 2.1 $ 3.2 $ 4.1 $ 5.1 $ 5.8 $ 6.5 $ 7.1 $ 7.7 $ 8.2 $ 8.7 $ 9.2 $ 9.7 $ 10.2 $ 10.7 $ 11.1 $ 11.5 $ 11.8 $ 12.2 $ 146.7 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 7.7 $ 18.6 $ 31.9 $ 47.6 $ 62.4 $ 76.6 $ 87.5 $ 97.6 $ 107.0 $ 116.0 $ 124.5 $ 132.6 $ 140.6 $ 148.2 $ 155.5 $ 162.6 $ 169.7 $ 176.7 $ 180.8 $ 186.9 $ 2,230.6 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 7.1 $ 17.6 $ 30.6 $ 45.7 $ 59.7 $ 72.5 $ 81.5 $ 88.8 $ 94.7 $ 99.8 $ 104.1 $ 107.8 $ 111.2 $ 114.1 $ 116.8 $ 119.3 $ 121.6 $ 123.7 $ 124.2 $ 125.8 $ 1,766.5 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.1 $ 2.7 $ 4.7 $ 7.0 $ 9.1 $ 11.1 $ 12.5 $ 13.6 $ 14.4 $ 15.2 $ 15.8 $ 16.4 $ 16.9 $ 17.4 $ 17.8 $ 18.1 $ 18.4 $ 18.7 $ 18.8 $ 19.0 $ 268.7 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 16.2 $ 40.4 $ 70.3 $ 104.9 $ 137.2 $ 166.7 $ 187.5 $ 204.3 $ 218.3 $ 230.3 $ 240.3 $ 249.0 $ 257.1 $ 264.0 $ 270.3 $ 276.1 $ 281.6 $ 287.1 $ 287.9 $ 291.9 $ 4,081.5 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38c, E.38g, and E.38k. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.2u Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (All Water Systems) TTHM - Preferred Alternative Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 134.8 $ 348.9 $ 631.3 $ 978.0 $ 1,276.7 $ 1,557.0 $ 1,810.5 $ 2,040.4 $ 2,242.5 $ 2,415.6 $ 2,566.0 $ 2,698.5 $ 2,817.0 $ 2,924.3 $ 3,022.5 $ 3,113.2 $ 3,197.7 $ 3,277.1 $ 3,308.6 $ 3,370.9 $ 43,731.5 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 20.6 $ 53.4 $ 96.6 $ 149.7 $ 195.2 $ 238.1 $ 276.6 $ 311.6 $ 341.9 $ 368.0 $ 390.7 $ 410.4 $ 428.4 $ 444.8 $ 459.5 $ 472.6 $ 484.7 $ 496.2 $ 501.4 $ 510.1 $ 6,650.4 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 309.9 $ 802.5 $ 1,450.4 $ 2,246.4 $ 2,934.8 $ 3,580.7 $ 4,163.6 $ 4,696.7 $ 5,166.3 $ 5,574.4 $ 5,924.2 $ 6,230.5 $ 6,515.1 $ 6,765.0 $ 6,994.8 $ 7,205.2 $ 7,407.1 $ 7,602.6 $ 7,671.6 $ 7,823.4 $ 101,065.4 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 127.4 $ 301.9 $ 514.7 $ 761.6 $ 932.5 $ 1,079.8 $ 1,206.3 $ 1,322.8 $ 1,432.1 $ 1,535.7 $ 1,634.5 $ 1,729.3 $ 1,820.7 $ 1,909.0 $ 1,994.5 $ 2,077.6 $ 2,158.4 $ 2,237.3 $ 2,284.4 $ 2,353.1 $ 29,413.3 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 19.5 $ 46.2 $ 78.8 $ 116.6 $ 142.6 $ 165.1 $ 184.3 $ 202.0 $ 218.4 $ 233.9 $ 248.9 $ 263.0 $ 276.9 $ 290.3 $ 303.2 $ 315.4 $ 327.2 $ 338.7 $ 346.2 $ 356.1 $ 4,473.1 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 292.9 $ 694.3 $ 1,182.3 $ 1,749.2 $ 2,143.7 $ 2,483.3 $ 2,774.1 $ 3,045.0 $ 3,299.3 $ 3,543.8 $ 3,773.6 $ 3,992.9 $ 4,210.9 $ 4,416.1 $ 4,615.7 $ 4,808.3 $ 4,999.8 $ 5,190.4 $ 5,296.6 $ 5,461.2 $ 67,973.3 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 252.5 $ 618.3 $ 1,067.6 $ 1,583.3 $ 1,941.7 $ 2,224.5 $ 2,442.2 $ 2,620.6 $ 2,770.5 $ 2,899.0 $ 3,010.9 $ 3,109.9 $ 3,198.7 $ 3,279.3 $ 3,353.4 $ 3,422.3 $ 3,486.8 $ 3,548.0 $ 3,559.6 $ 3,606.2 $ 51,995.4 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 38.6 $ 94.7 $ 163.4 $ 242.4 $ 296.8 $ 340.1 $ 373.1 $ 400.2 $ 422.4 $ 441.6 $ 458.5 $ 473.0 $ 486.4 $ 498.8 $ 509.8 $ 519.5 $ 528.5 $ 537.2 $ 539.4 $ 545.7 $ 7,910.1 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 580.4 $ 1,422.2 $ 2,452.6 $ 3,636.8 $ 4,463.5 $ 5,115.9 $ 5,616.3 $ 6,032.4 $ 6,382.8 $ 6,690.0 $ 6,951.5 $ 7,180.5 $ 7,398.0 $ 7,586.3 $ 7,760.7 $ 7,920.4 $ 8,076.9 $ 8,231.1 $ 8,253.4 $ 8,369.4 $ 120,121.1 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.2J and F.2t. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.2v Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 3% Discount Rate (All Water Systems) TTHM - Preferred Alternative Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Ann. Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 116.3 $ 292.2 $ 513.3 $ 772.0 $ 978.5 $ 1,158.5 $ 1,307.9 $ 1,431.1 $ 1,527.0 $ 1,597.0 $ 1,647.0 $ 1,681.6 $ 1,704.3 $ 1,717.7 $ 1,723.7 $ 1,723.7 $ 1,718.9 $ 1,710.3 $ 1,676.5 $ 1,658.3 $ 26,655.9 $ 1,530.8 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 17.8 $ 44.7 $ 78.6 $ 118.2 $ 149.6 $ 177.2 $ 199.8 $ 218.5 $ 232.8 $ 243.3 $ 250.8 $ 255.8 $ 259.2 $ 261.3 $ 262.0 $ 261.6 $ 260.6 $ 259.0 $ 254.1 $ 251.0 $ 4,055.6 $ 232.9 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 267.3 $ 672.1 $ 1,179.3 $ 1,773.3 $ 2,249.3 $ 2,664.4 $ 3,007.9 $ 3,294.2 $ 3,518.0 $ 3,685.3 $ 3,802.5 $ 3,882.6 $ 3,941.8 $ 3,973.7 $ 3,989.1 $ 3,989.3 $ 3,981.7 $ 3,967.8 $ 3,887.1 $ 3,848.6 $ 61,575.3 $ 3,536.1 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 109.9 $ 252.8 $ 418.5 $ 601.2 $ 714.7 $ 803.4 $ 871.4 $ 927.8 $ 975.2 $ 1,015.2 $ 1,049.1 $ 1,077.7 $ 1,101.5 $ 1,121.3 $ 1,137.4 $ 1,150.3 $ 1,160.3 $ 1,167.6 $ 1,157.5 $ 1,157.6 $ 17,970.5 $ 1,032.0 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 16.8 $ 38.7 $ 64.0 $ 92.0 $ 109.3 $ 122.9 $ 133.1 $ 141.7 $ 148.7 $ 154.7 $ 159.7 $ 163.9 $ 167.5 $ 170.5 $ 172.9 $ 174.6 $ 175.9 $ 176.8 $ 175.4 $ 175.2 $ 2,734.3 $ 157.0 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 252.6 $ 581.5 $ 961.3 $ 1,380.9 $ 1,642.9 $ 1,847.8 $ 2,004.0 $ 2,135.7 $ 2,246.7 $ 2,342.9 $ 2,422.2 $ 2,488.2 $ 2,547.6 $ 2,594.0 $ 2,632.3 $ 2,662.2 $ 2,687.6 $ 2,708.8 $ 2,683.8 $ 2,686.5 $ 41,509.6 $ 2,383.8 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 217.8 $ 517.8 $ 868.1 $ 1,249.9 $ 1,488.1 $ 1,655.2 $ 1,764.3 $ 1,838.0 $ 1,886.6 $ 1,916.6 $ 1,932.6 $ 1,938.0 $ 1,935.3 $ 1,926.3 $ 1,912.4 $ 1,894.8 $ 1,874.3 $ 1,851.7 $ 1,803.6 $ 1,774.0 $ 32,245.5 $ 1,851.8 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 33.3 $ 79.3 $ 132.8 $ 191.3 $ 227.5 $ 253.1 $ 269.5 $ 280.7 $ 287.7 $ 292.0 $ 294.3 $ 294.8 $ 294.3 $ 293.0 $ 290.7 $ 287.6 $ 284.1 $ 280.4 $ 273.3 $ 268.5 $ 4,908.1 $ 281.9 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 500.7 $ 1,191.1 $ 1,994.2 $ 2,870.9 $ 3,420.9 $ 3,806.7 $ 4,057.4 $ 4,231.0 $ 4,346.4 $ 4,422.9 $ 4,461.9 $ 4,474.7 $ 4,475.9 $ 4,456.2 $ 4,425.8 $ 4,385.4 $ 4,341.7 $ 4,295.7 $ 4,181.9 $ 4,117.2 $ 74,458.4 $ 4,276.0 Notes: Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005. Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibit F.2u. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.2w Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 7% Discount Rate (All Water Systems) TTHM - Preferred Alternative Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Ann. Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 96.1 $ 232.5 $ 393.2 $ 569.2 $ 694.4 $ 791.5 $ 860.1 $ 905.9 $ 930.6 $ 936.8 $ 930.0 $ 914.1 $ 891.8 $ 865.2 $ 835.8 $ 804.5 $ 772.3 $ 739.7 $ 697.9 $ 664.6 $ 14,526.2 $ 1,246.5 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 14.7 $ 35.6 $ 60.2 $ 87.1 $ 106.2 $ 121.0 $ 131.4 $ 138.3 $ 141.9 $ 142.7 $ 141.6 $ 139.0 $ 135.6 $ 131.6 $ 127.0 $ 122.1 $ 117.1 $ 112.0 $ 105.8 $ 100.6 $ 2,211.5 $ 189.8 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 221.0 $ 534.8 $ 903.2 $ 1,307.4 $ 1,596.3 $ 1,820.3 $ 1,978.1 $ 2,085.4 $ 2,143.8 $ 2,161.9 $ 2,147.2 $ 2,110.5 $ 2,062.5 $ 2,001.5 $ 1,934.1 $ 1,862.0 $ 1,788.9 $ 1,716.0 $ 1,618.3 $ 1,542.4 $ 33,535.5 $ 2,877.7 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 90.8 $ 201.1 $ 320.5 $ 443.2 $ 507.2 $ 548.9 $ 573.1 $ 587.3 $ 594.3 $ 595.6 $ 592.4 $ 585.8 $ 576.4 $ 564.8 $ 551.5 $ 536.9 $ 521.3 $ 505.0 $ 481.9 $ 463.9 $ 9,841.9 $ 844.5 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 13.9 $ 30.8 $ 49.0 $ 67.8 $ 77.5 $ 83.9 $ 87.5 $ 89.7 $ 90.6 $ 90.7 $ 90.2 $ 89.1 $ 87.6 $ 85.9 $ 83.8 $ 81.5 $ 79.0 $ 76.5 $ 73.0 $ 70.2 $ 1,498.5 $ 128.6 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 208.8 $ 462.6 $ 736.3 $ 1,018.1 $ 1,166.0 $ 1,262.4 $ 1,317.9 $ 1,352.0 $ 1,369.1 $ 1,374.4 $ 1,367.7 $ 1,352.5 $ 1,333.1 $ 1,306.6 $ 1,276.3 $ 1,242.6 $ 1,207.5 $ 1,171.5 $ 1,117.3 $ 1,076.7 $ 22,719.3 $ 1,949.6 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 180.0 $ 412.0 $ 664.9 $ 921.5 $ 1,056.1 $ 1,130.8 $ 1,160.3 $ 1,163.6 $ 1,149.7 $ 1,124.3 $ 1,091.3 $ 1,053.4 $ 1,012.6 $ 970.2 $ 927.3 $ 884.4 $ 842.1 $ 800.8 $ 750.9 $ 710.9 $ 18,007.2 $ 1,545.2 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 27.6 $ 63.1 $ 101.7 $ 141.1 $ 161.5 $ 172.9 $ 177.2 $ 177.7 $ 175.3 $ 171.3 $ 166.2 $ 160.2 $ 154.0 $ 147.6 $ 141.0 $ 134.2 $ 127.7 $ 121.3 $ 113.8 $ 107.6 $ 2,742.7 $ 235.4 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 413.8 $ 947.7 $ 1,527.4 $ 2,116.7 $ 2,427.9 $ 2,600.7 $ 2,668.3 $ 2,678.4 $ 2,648.6 $ 2,594.5 $ 2,519.5 $ 2,432.3 $ 2,342.0 $ 2,244.5 $ 2,145.9 $ 2,046.8 $ 1,950.7 $ 1,857.9 $ 1,741.0 $ 1,650.0 $ 41,554.5 $ 3,565.8 Notes: Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005. Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibit F.2u. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.2x Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 3% Discount Rate, by Small & Large Size Categories (Surface Water Systems) TTHM - Preferred Alternative Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Ann. Small Systems Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.9 $ 7.3 $ 12.8 $ 19.2 $ 26.4 $ 34.4 $ 40.1 $ 44.8 $ 48.7 $ 51.7 $ 54.0 $ 55.7 $ 56.8 $ 57.5 $ 57.9 $ 58.1 $ 58.1 $ 58.0 $ 56.9 $ 56.4 $ 857.7 $ 49.3 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.4 $ 1.1 $ 2.0 $ 2.9 $ 4.0 $ 5.3 $ 6.1 $ 6.8 $ 7.4 $ 7.9 $ 8.2 $ 8.5 $ 8.6 $ 8.7 $ 8.8 $ 8.8 $ 8.8 $ 8.8 $ 8.6 $ 8.5 $ 130.5 $ 7.5 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 6.6 $ 16.7 $ 29.3 $ 44.1 $ 60.8 $ 79.0 $ 92.3 $ 103.2 $ 112.1 $ 119.4 $ 124.7 $ 128.5 $ 131.3 $ 133.1 $ 134.1 $ 134.5 $ 134.6 $ 134.5 $ 132.0 $ 130.9 $ 1,981.7 $ 113.8 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.4 $ 5.7 $ 9.5 $ 13.7 $ 18.3 $ 23.2 $ 26.1 $ 28.4 $ 30.4 $ 32.1 $ 33.6 $ 34.8 $ 35.9 $ 36.7 $ 37.5 $ 38.1 $ 38.6 $ 39.0 $ 38.8 $ 38.9 $ 561.9 $ 32.3 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.4 $ 0.9 $ 1.5 $ 2.1 $ 2.8 $ 3.5 $ 4.0 $ 4.3 $ 4.6 $ 4.9 $ 5.1 $ 5.3 $ 5.5 $ 5.6 $ 5.7 $ 5.8 $ 5.9 $ 5.9 $ 5.9 $ 5.9 $ 85.5 $ 4.9 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 5.6 $ 13.0 $ 21.8 $ 31.5 $ 42.1 $ 53.3 $ 60.0 $ 65.5 $ 70.1 $ 74.1 $ 77.5 $ 80.4 $ 82.9 $ 85.0 $ 86.8 $ 88.2 $ 89.5 $ 90.5 $ 90.0 $ 90.4 $ 1,298.2 $ 74.6 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 5.1 $ 12.3 $ 20.9 $ 30.3 $ 40.2 $ 50.4 $ 56.2 $ 60.1 $ 62.7 $ 64.4 $ 65.5 $ 66.1 $ 66.2 $ 66.1 $ 65.8 $ 65.3 $ 64.7 $ 63.9 $ 62.3 $ 61.3 $ 1,049.6 $ 60.3 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.8 $ 1.9 $ 3.2 $ 4.6 $ 6.1 $ 7.7 $ 8.6 $ 9.2 $ 9.6 $ 9.8 $ 10.0 $ 10.0 $ 10.1 $ 10.1 $ 10.0 $ 9.9 $ 9.8 $ 9.7 $ 9.4 $ 9.3 $ 159.7 $ 9.2 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 11.8 $ 28.4 $ 48.0 $ 69.5 $ 92.4 $ 115.9 $ 129.1 $ 138.2 $ 144.4 $ 148.7 $ 151.2 $ 152.5 $ 153.2 $ 153.0 $ 152.3 $ 151.1 $ 149.8 $ 148.3 $ 144.4 $ 142.2 $ 2,424.3 $ 139.2 Large Systems Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 110.0 $ 276.3 $ 485.4 $ 730.0 $ 921.7 $ 1,086.8 $ 1,225.0 $ 1,339.0 $ 1,427.5 $ 1,491.7 $ 1,537.4 $ 1,568.9 $ 1,589.6 $ 1,601.6 $ 1,606.8 $ 1,606.5 $ 1,601.8 $ 1,593.6 $ 1,561.9 $ 1,544.8 $ 24,906.1 $ 1,430.3 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 16.8 $ 42.3 $ 74.3 $ 111.7 $ 140.9 $ 166.2 $ 187.1 $ 204.5 $ 217.7 $ 227.2 $ 234.1 $ 238.6 $ 241.7 $ 243.6 $ 244.3 $ 243.9 $ 242.8 $ 241.3 $ 236.7 $ 233.8 $ 3,789.4 $ 217.6 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 252.8 $ 635.5 $ 1,115.0 $ 1,676.7 $ 2,118.8 $ 2,499.4 $ 2,817.1 $ 3,082.1 $ 3,288.7 $ 3,442.3 $ 3,549.3 $ 3,622.4 $ 3,676.3 $ 3,705.1 $ 3,718.5 $ 3,718.1 $ 3,710.5 $ 3,697.0 $ 3,621.5 $ 3,585.3 $ 57,532.7 $ 3,304.0 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 104.6 $ 240.4 $ 397.7 $ 571.1 $ 675.6 $ 755.5 $ 817.9 $ 869.6 $ 913.1 $ 949.9 $ 981.0 $ 1,007.1 $ 1,028.9 $ 1,046.9 $ 1,061.6 $ 1,073.3 $ 1,082.3 $ 1,088.9 $ 1,079.1 $ 1,079.0 $ 16,823.4 $ 966.1 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 16.0 $ 36.8 $ 60.9 $ 87.4 $ 103.3 $ 115.5 $ 124.9 $ 132.8 $ 139.2 $ 144.7 $ 149.4 $ 153.2 $ 156.5 $ 159.2 $ 161.4 $ 162.9 $ 164.1 $ 164.9 $ 163.5 $ 163.3 $ 2,559.8 $ 147.0 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 240.4 $ 552.9 $ 913.6 $ 1,311.8 $ 1,553.1 $ 1,737.5 $ 1,880.9 $ 2,001.8 $ 2,103.7 $ 2,192.1 $ 2,264.8 $ 2,325.2 $ 2,379.7 $ 2,422.0 $ 2,456.8 $ 2,484.0 $ 2,507.0 $ 2,526.1 $ 2,502.2 $ 2,504.2 $ 38,859.5 $ 2,231.6 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 206.6 $ 490.8 $ 822.3 $ 1,183.6 $ 1,402.2 $ 1,550.9 $ 1,649.2 $ 1,715.7 $ 1,759.4 $ 1,786.2 $ 1,800.3 $ 1,804.8 $ 1,801.8 $ 1,793.1 $ 1,780.0 $ 1,763.5 $ 1,744.3 $ 1,723.2 $ 1,678.4 $ 1,650.8 $ 30,107.1 $ 1,729.0 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 31.6 $ 75.2 $ 125.8 $ 181.2 $ 214.4 $ 237.2 $ 251.9 $ 262.0 $ 268.3 $ 272.1 $ 274.1 $ 274.5 $ 274.0 $ 272.7 $ 270.6 $ 267.7 $ 264.4 $ 260.9 $ 254.3 $ 249.8 $ 4,582.7 $ 263.2 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 474.9 $ 1,128.9 $ 1,889.1 $ 2,718.6 $ 3,223.4 $ 3,566.8 $ 3,792.8 $ 3,949.4 $ 4,053.3 $ 4,122.0 $ 4,156.4 $ 4,167.0 $ 4,167.2 $ 4,148.1 $ 4,119.4 $ 4,081.4 $ 4,040.6 $ 3,997.6 $ 3,891.6 $ 3,831.3 $ 69,519.7 $ 3,992.4 Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005. Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Derived from Exhibits F.2a through F.2i. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.2y Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 7% Discount Rate, by Small & Large Size Categories (Surface Water Systems) TTHM - Preferred Alternative Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Ann. Small Systems Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.4 $ 5.8 $ 9.8 $ 14.2 $ 18.8 $ 23.5 $ 26.4 $ 28.4 $ 29.7 $ 30.3 $ 30.5 $ 30.3 $ 29.7 $ 29.0 $ 28.1 $ 27.1 $ 26.1 $ 25.1 $ 23.7 $ 22.6 $ 461.2 $ 39.6 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.4 $ 0.9 $ 1.5 $ 2.2 $ 2.9 $ 3.6 $ 4.0 $ 4.3 $ 4.5 $ 4.6 $ 4.6 $ 4.6 $ 4.5 $ 4.4 $ 4.3 $ 4.1 $ 4.0 $ 3.8 $ 3.6 $ 3.4 $ 70.2 $ 6.0 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 5.5 $ 13.3 $ 22.5 $ 32.5 $ 43.1 $ 54.0 $ 60.7 $ 65.3 $ 68.3 $ 70.0 $ 70.4 $ 69.9 $ 68.7 $ 67.0 $ 65.0 $ 62.8 $ 60.5 $ 58.2 $ 54.9 $ 52.4 $ 1,065.1 $ 91.4 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.0 $ 4.5 $ 7.3 $ 10.1 $ 13.0 $ 15.8 $ 17.1 $ 18.0 $ 18.5 $ 18.8 $ 19.0 $ 18.9 $ 18.8 $ 18.5 $ 18.2 $ 17.8 $ 17.4 $ 16.9 $ 16.2 $ 15.6 $ 302.4 $ 25.9 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.3 $ 0.7 $ 1.1 $ 1.5 $ 2.0 $ 2.4 $ 2.6 $ 2.7 $ 2.8 $ 2.9 $ 2.9 $ 2.9 $ 2.9 $ 2.8 $ 2.8 $ 2.7 $ 2.6 $ 2.6 $ 2.4 $ 2.4 $ 46.0 $ 3.9 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 4.6 $ 10.4 $ 16.7 $ 23.2 $ 29.9 $ 36.4 $ 39.4 $ 41.5 $ 42.7 $ 43.5 $ 43.8 $ 43.7 $ 43.4 $ 42.8 $ 42.1 $ 41.2 $ 40.2 $ 39.2 $ 37.5 $ 36.2 $ 698.2 $ 59.9 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 4.2 $ 9.8 $ 16.0 $ 22.3 $ 28.5 $ 34.4 $ 36.9 $ 38.0 $ 38.2 $ 37.8 $ 37.0 $ 35.9 $ 34.7 $ 33.3 $ 31.9 $ 30.5 $ 29.0 $ 27.6 $ 25.9 $ 24.6 $ 576.6 $ 49.5 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.6 $ 1.5 $ 2.4 $ 3.4 $ 4.4 $ 5.3 $ 5.6 $ 5.8 $ 5.8 $ 5.8 $ 5.6 $ 5.5 $ 5.3 $ 5.1 $ 4.8 $ 4.6 $ 4.4 $ 4.2 $ 3.9 $ 3.7 $ 87.8 $ 7.5 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 9.7 $ 22.6 $ 36.7 $ 51.3 $ 65.5 $ 79.2 $ 84.9 $ 87.5 $ 88.0 $ 87.2 $ 85.4 $ 82.9 $ 80.2 $ 77.0 $ 73.8 $ 70.5 $ 67.3 $ 64.1 $ 60.1 $ 57.0 $ 1,331.1 $ 114.2 Large Systems Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 90.9 $ 219.8 $ 371.7 $ 538.2 $ 654.2 $ 742.5 $ 805.6 $ 847.6 $ 869.9 $ 875.0 $ 868.1 $ 852.8 $ 831.7 $ 806.7 $ 779.1 $ 749.8 $ 719.7 $ 689.2 $ 650.3 $ 619.1 $ 13,581.9 $ 1,165.5 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 13.9 $ 33.7 $ 56.9 $ 82.4 $ 100.0 $ 113.5 $ 123.1 $ 129.4 $ 132.6 $ 133.3 $ 132.2 $ 129.7 $ 126.5 $ 122.7 $ 118.4 $ 113.8 $ 109.1 $ 104.4 $ 98.5 $ 93.7 $ 2,067.8 $ 177.4 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 209.0 $ 505.6 $ 854.0 $ 1,236.2 $ 1,503.8 $ 1,707.6 $ 1,852.6 $ 1,951.2 $ 2,004.1 $ 2,019.3 $ 2,004.2 $ 1,969.0 $ 1,923.6 $ 1,866.2 $ 1,803.0 $ 1,735.4 $ 1,667.1 $ 1,598.9 $ 1,507.7 $ 1,436.8 $ 31,355.3 $ 2,690.6 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 86.4 $ 191.2 $ 304.6 $ 421.1 $ 479.5 $ 516.1 $ 537.9 $ 550.5 $ 556.5 $ 557.2 $ 553.9 $ 547.4 $ 538.4 $ 527.3 $ 514.7 $ 500.9 $ 486.3 $ 470.9 $ 449.3 $ 432.4 $ 9,222.6 $ 791.4 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 13.2 $ 29.3 $ 46.6 $ 64.5 $ 73.3 $ 78.9 $ 82.2 $ 84.1 $ 84.8 $ 84.9 $ 84.3 $ 83.3 $ 81.9 $ 80.2 $ 78.2 $ 76.0 $ 73.7 $ 71.3 $ 68.1 $ 65.4 $ 1,404.3 $ 120.5 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 198.7 $ 439.9 $ 699.7 $ 967.2 $ 1,102.2 $ 1,187.0 $ 1,236.9 $ 1,267.2 $ 1,282.0 $ 1,285.9 $ 1,278.9 $ 1,263.9 $ 1,245.2 $ 1,219.9 $ 1,191.2 $ 1,159.4 $ 1,126.3 $ 1,092.5 $ 1,041.7 $ 1,003.6 $ 21,289.3 $ 1,826.8 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 170.7 $ 390.5 $ 629.8 $ 872.6 $ 995.2 $ 1,059.5 $ 1,084.6 $ 1,086.1 $ 1,072.2 $ 1,047.8 $ 1,016.6 $ 981.0 $ 942.8 $ 903.2 $ 863.1 $ 823.1 $ 783.7 $ 745.2 $ 698.8 $ 661.6 $ 16,828.1 $ 1,444.0 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 26.1 $ 59.8 $ 96.4 $ 133.6 $ 152.1 $ 162.0 $ 165.7 $ 165.8 $ 163.5 $ 159.6 $ 154.8 $ 149.2 $ 143.4 $ 137.4 $ 131.2 $ 124.9 $ 118.8 $ 112.8 $ 105.9 $ 100.1 $ 2,563.2 $ 219.9 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 392.5 $ 898.2 $ 1,446.9 $ 2,004.3 $ 2,287.7 $ 2,436.8 $ 2,494.3 $ 2,500.2 $ 2,470.0 $ 2,418.0 $ 2,347.0 $ 2,265.0 $ 2,180.5 $ 2,089.4 $ 1,997.3 $ 1,904.9 $ 1,815.4 $ 1,728.9 $ 1,620.2 $ 1,535.4 $ 38,832.9 $ 3,332.3 Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005. Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Derived from Exhibits F.2a through F.2i. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.2z Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 3% Discount Rate, by Small & Large Size Categories (Ground Water Systems) TTHM - Preferred Alternative Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Ann. Small Systems Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.1 $ 2.8 $ 5.0 $ 7.5 $ 10.4 $ 13.5 $ 15.7 $ 17.6 $ 19.1 $ 20.3 $ 21.2 $ 21.8 $ 22.3 $ 22.6 $ 22.7 $ 22.8 $ 22.8 $ 22.7 $ 22.3 $ 22.1 $ 336.3 $ 19.3 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.4 $ 0.8 $ 1.2 $ 1.6 $ 2.1 $ 2.4 $ 2.7 $ 2.9 $ 3.1 $ 3.2 $ 3.3 $ 3.4 $ 3.4 $ 3.5 $ 3.5 $ 3.5 $ 3.4 $ 3.4 $ 3.3 $ 51.2 $ 2.9 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.6 $ 6.5 $ 11.5 $ 17.3 $ 23.8 $ 31.0 $ 36.2 $ 40.5 $ 44.0 $ 46.8 $ 48.9 $ 50.4 $ 51.5 $ 52.2 $ 52.6 $ 52.8 $ 52.8 $ 52.7 $ 51.7 $ 51.3 $ 777.1 $ 44.6 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.0 $ 2.2 $ 3.7 $ 5.4 $ 7.2 $ 9.1 $ 10.2 $ 11.2 $ 11.9 $ 12.6 $ 13.2 $ 13.7 $ 14.1 $ 14.4 $ 14.7 $ 14.9 $ 15.1 $ 15.3 $ 15.2 $ 15.3 $ 220.4 $ 12.7 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.3 $ 0.6 $ 0.8 $ 1.1 $ 1.4 $ 1.6 $ 1.7 $ 1.8 $ 1.9 $ 2.0 $ 2.1 $ 2.1 $ 2.2 $ 2.2 $ 2.3 $ 2.3 $ 2.3 $ 2.3 $ 2.3 $ 33.5 $ 1.9 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.2 $ 5.1 $ 8.5 $ 12.4 $ 16.5 $ 20.9 $ 23.5 $ 25.7 $ 27.5 $ 29.1 $ 30.4 $ 31.5 $ 32.5 $ 33.3 $ 34.0 $ 34.6 $ 35.1 $ 35.5 $ 35.3 $ 35.4 $ 509.1 $ 29.2 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.0 $ 4.8 $ 8.2 $ 11.9 $ 15.8 $ 19.8 $ 22.0 $ 23.5 $ 24.6 $ 25.3 $ 25.7 $ 25.9 $ 26.0 $ 25.9 $ 25.8 $ 25.6 $ 25.3 $ 25.1 $ 24.4 $ 24.0 $ 411.6 $ 23.6 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.3 $ 0.7 $ 1.3 $ 1.8 $ 2.4 $ 3.0 $ 3.4 $ 3.6 $ 3.7 $ 3.8 $ 3.9 $ 3.9 $ 3.9 $ 3.9 $ 3.9 $ 3.9 $ 3.8 $ 3.8 $ 3.7 $ 3.6 $ 62.6 $ 3.6 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 4.6 $ 11.1 $ 18.8 $ 27.3 $ 36.2 $ 45.4 $ 50.6 $ 54.2 $ 56.6 $ 58.3 $ 59.3 $ 59.8 $ 60.1 $ 60.0 $ 59.7 $ 59.2 $ 58.7 $ 58.1 $ 56.6 $ 55.8 $ 950.6 $ 54.6 Large Systems Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.3 $ 5.8 $ 10.2 $ 15.3 $ 19.9 $ 23.9 $ 27.1 $ 29.7 $ 31.8 $ 33.3 $ 34.4 $ 35.2 $ 35.7 $ 36.1 $ 36.2 $ 36.3 $ 36.2 $ 36.0 $ 35.3 $ 35.0 $ 555.8 $ 31.9 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.4 $ 0.9 $ 1.6 $ 2.3 $ 3.0 $ 3.7 $ 4.1 $ 4.5 $ 4.8 $ 5.1 $ 5.2 $ 5.4 $ 5.4 $ 5.5 $ 5.5 $ 5.5 $ 5.5 $ 5.5 $ 5.4 $ 5.3 $ 84.6 $ 4.9 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 5.3 $ 13.3 $ 23.5 $ 35.3 $ 45.8 $ 55.0 $ 62.3 $ 68.4 $ 73.2 $ 76.9 $ 79.5 $ 81.3 $ 82.7 $ 83.4 $ 83.8 $ 83.9 $ 83.8 $ 83.6 $ 81.9 $ 81.1 $ 1,283.9 $ 73.7 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.9 $ 4.5 $ 7.6 $ 11.0 $ 13.6 $ 15.7 $ 17.3 $ 18.6 $ 19.7 $ 20.6 $ 21.4 $ 22.1 $ 22.7 $ 23.2 $ 23.6 $ 24.0 $ 24.2 $ 24.4 $ 24.3 $ 24.3 $ 364.8 $ 20.9 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.3 $ 0.7 $ 1.2 $ 1.7 $ 2.1 $ 2.4 $ 2.6 $ 2.8 $ 3.0 $ 3.1 $ 3.3 $ 3.4 $ 3.5 $ 3.5 $ 3.6 $ 3.6 $ 3.7 $ 3.7 $ 3.7 $ 3.7 $ 55.5 $ 3.2 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 4.5 $ 10.4 $ 17.4 $ 25.2 $ 31.3 $ 36.1 $ 39.7 $ 42.7 $ 45.3 $ 47.6 $ 49.5 $ 51.1 $ 52.5 $ 53.7 $ 54.7 $ 55.5 $ 56.1 $ 56.7 $ 56.3 $ 56.5 $ 842.8 $ 48.4 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 4.1 $ 9.9 $ 16.7 $ 24.2 $ 30.0 $ 34.2 $ 36.9 $ 38.7 $ 39.9 $ 40.7 $ 41.1 $ 41.3 $ 41.3 $ 41.1 $ 40.8 $ 40.5 $ 40.0 $ 39.5 $ 38.5 $ 37.8 $ 677.2 $ 38.9 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.6 $ 1.5 $ 2.6 $ 3.7 $ 4.6 $ 5.2 $ 5.6 $ 5.9 $ 6.1 $ 6.2 $ 6.3 $ 6.3 $ 6.3 $ 6.3 $ 6.2 $ 6.1 $ 6.1 $ 6.0 $ 5.8 $ 5.7 $ 103.1 $ 5.9 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 9.4 $ 22.7 $ 38.3 $ 55.6 $ 68.9 $ 78.6 $ 84.8 $ 89.1 $ 92.0 $ 93.9 $ 95.0 $ 95.4 $ 95.5 $ 95.1 $ 94.5 $ 93.6 $ 92.7 $ 91.7 $ 89.2 $ 87.8 $ 1,563.8 $ 89.8 Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005. Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Derived from Exhibits F.2k through F.2s. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.2aa Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 7% Discount Rate, by Small & Large Size Categories (Ground Water Systems) TTHM - Preferred Alternative Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Ann. Small Systems Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.9 $ 2.3 $ 3.8 $ 5.5 $ 7.4 $ 9.2 $ 10.3 $ 11.1 $ 11.6 $ 11.9 $ 12.0 $ 11.9 $ 11.6 $ 11.4 $ 11.0 $ 10.6 $ 10.2 $ 9.8 $ 9.3 $ 8.9 $ 180.9 $ 15.5 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.3 $ 0.6 $ 0.8 $ 1.1 $ 1.4 $ 1.6 $ 1.7 $ 1.8 $ 1.8 $ 1.8 $ 1.8 $ 1.8 $ 1.7 $ 1.7 $ 1.6 $ 1.6 $ 1.5 $ 1.4 $ 1.3 $ 27.5 $ 2.4 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.1 $ 5.2 $ 8.8 $ 12.7 $ 16.9 $ 21.2 $ 23.8 $ 25.6 $ 26.8 $ 27.5 $ 27.6 $ 27.4 $ 26.9 $ 26.3 $ 25.5 $ 24.6 $ 23.7 $ 22.8 $ 21.5 $ 20.6 $ 417.6 $ 35.8 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.8 $ 1.8 $ 2.8 $ 4.0 $ 5.1 $ 6.2 $ 6.7 $ 7.1 $ 7.3 $ 7.4 $ 7.4 $ 7.4 $ 7.4 $ 7.3 $ 7.1 $ 7.0 $ 6.8 $ 6.6 $ 6.3 $ 6.1 $ 118.6 $ 10.2 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.6 $ 0.8 $ 0.9 $ 1.0 $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 1.0 $ 1.0 $ 1.0 $ 0.9 $ 18.1 $ 1.5 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.8 $ 4.1 $ 6.5 $ 9.1 $ 11.7 $ 14.3 $ 15.5 $ 16.3 $ 16.8 $ 17.1 $ 17.2 $ 17.1 $ 17.0 $ 16.8 $ 16.5 $ 16.1 $ 15.8 $ 15.4 $ 14.7 $ 14.2 $ 273.9 $ 23.5 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.7 $ 3.9 $ 6.3 $ 8.8 $ 11.2 $ 13.5 $ 14.5 $ 14.9 $ 15.0 $ 14.8 $ 14.5 $ 14.1 $ 13.6 $ 13.1 $ 12.5 $ 11.9 $ 11.4 $ 10.8 $ 10.2 $ 9.6 $ 226.1 $ 19.4 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.3 $ 0.6 $ 1.0 $ 1.3 $ 1.7 $ 2.1 $ 2.2 $ 2.3 $ 2.3 $ 2.3 $ 2.2 $ 2.1 $ 2.1 $ 2.0 $ 1.9 $ 1.8 $ 1.7 $ 1.6 $ 1.5 $ 1.5 $ 34.4 $ 3.0 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 3.8 $ 8.9 $ 14.4 $ 20.1 $ 25.7 $ 31.0 $ 33.3 $ 34.3 $ 34.5 $ 34.2 $ 33.5 $ 32.5 $ 31.4 $ 30.2 $ 28.9 $ 27.7 $ 26.4 $ 25.1 $ 23.6 $ 22.4 $ 521.9 $ 44.8 Large Systems Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.9 $ 4.6 $ 7.8 $ 11.3 $ 14.1 $ 16.3 $ 17.8 $ 18.8 $ 19.4 $ 19.5 $ 19.4 $ 19.1 $ 18.7 $ 18.2 $ 17.6 $ 16.9 $ 16.3 $ 15.6 $ 14.7 $ 14.0 $ 302.1 $ 25.9 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.3 $ 0.7 $ 1.2 $ 1.7 $ 2.2 $ 2.5 $ 2.7 $ 2.9 $ 3.0 $ 3.0 $ 3.0 $ 2.9 $ 2.8 $ 2.8 $ 2.7 $ 2.6 $ 2.5 $ 2.4 $ 2.2 $ 2.1 $ 46.0 $ 3.9 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 4.4 $ 10.6 $ 18.0 $ 26.0 $ 32.5 $ 37.6 $ 41.0 $ 43.3 $ 44.6 $ 45.1 $ 44.9 $ 44.2 $ 43.3 $ 42.0 $ 40.6 $ 39.2 $ 37.7 $ 36.1 $ 34.1 $ 32.5 $ 697.6 $ 59.9 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.6 $ 3.6 $ 5.8 $ 8.1 $ 9.7 $ 10.7 $ 11.4 $ 11.8 $ 12.0 $ 12.1 $ 12.1 $ 12.0 $ 11.9 $ 11.7 $ 11.5 $ 11.2 $ 10.9 $ 10.6 $ 10.1 $ 9.8 $ 198.3 $ 17.0 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.6 $ 0.9 $ 1.2 $ 1.5 $ 1.6 $ 1.7 $ 1.8 $ 1.8 $ 1.8 $ 1.8 $ 1.8 $ 1.8 $ 1.8 $ 1.7 $ 1.7 $ 1.7 $ 1.6 $ 1.5 $ 1.5 $ 30.2 $ 2.6 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 3.7 $ 8.3 $ 13.3 $ 18.6 $ 22.2 $ 24.7 $ 26.1 $ 27.1 $ 27.6 $ 27.9 $ 27.9 $ 27.8 $ 27.5 $ 27.0 $ 26.5 $ 25.9 $ 25.2 $ 24.5 $ 23.4 $ 22.6 $ 457.9 $ 39.3 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 3.4 $ 7.8 $ 12.8 $ 17.8 $ 21.3 $ 23.4 $ 24.3 $ 24.5 $ 24.3 $ 23.9 $ 23.2 $ 22.5 $ 21.6 $ 20.7 $ 19.8 $ 18.9 $ 18.0 $ 17.1 $ 16.0 $ 15.2 $ 376.4 $ 32.3 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.5 $ 1.2 $ 2.0 $ 2.7 $ 3.3 $ 3.6 $ 3.7 $ 3.7 $ 3.7 $ 3.6 $ 3.5 $ 3.4 $ 3.3 $ 3.1 $ 3.0 $ 2.9 $ 2.7 $ 2.6 $ 2.4 $ 2.3 $ 57.3 $ 4.9 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 7.8 $ 18.0 $ 29.4 $ 41.0 $ 48.9 $ 53.7 $ 55.8 $ 56.4 $ 56.1 $ 55.1 $ 53.6 $ 51.8 $ 50.0 $ 47.9 $ 45.8 $ 43.7 $ 41.6 $ 39.7 $ 37.1 $ 35.2 $ 868.6 $ 74.5 Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005. Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Derived from Exhibits F.2k through F.2s. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.2ab Mean Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 3% Discount Rate, by System Size (All Systems) TTHM - Preferred Alternative Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model 1,000-3,299 3,300-9,999 10,000-49,999 50,000-99,999 1,000-3,299 3,300-9,999 10,000-49,999 99,999 999,999 1,000-3,299 9,999 99,999 999,999 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 $ 2 • $ 2 I $ 374 $ 377 $ 3E $ 3< $ 3! $ 3! $ 5 ' $ 5 ' $ 5 ' $ 5 [ Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBF/? December2005 ------- Exhibit F.2ac Mean Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphom; (All Systems) s Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 7% Discount Rate, by System Size TTHM - Preferred Alternative Smokin Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Ann. <100 $ - $ - $ - S - $ 00 $ 00 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 02 $ 02 $ 02 $ 02 $ 02 $ 02 $ 02 $ 02 $ 02 $ 02 $ 02 $ 02 $ 02 S 3.4 100-499 $ $ $ $ $ 0 1 S 03 $ 06 $ 08 S 1 4 $ 1 6 $ 1 7 $ 1 7 $ 18 $ 1 7 S 1 7 $ 1 5 S 1 5 $ 1 4 $ 1 3 500-999 $ $ S $ $ 02 $ 04 $ 08 $ 1 1 $ 18 $ 20 $ 22 $ 23 $ 24 $ 24 $ 23 $ 23 $ 22 $ 20 $ 1 9 1,000-3,299 $ S $ $ $ 09 $ 2 1 $ 36 $ 5 1 $ 85 $ 96 $ 103 $ 108 $ 110 $ 111 $ 110 $ 108 $ 105 $ 95 $ 9 1 $ 86 g/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model 3,300-9,999 S $ $ s $ 2 1 S 5 1 $ 125 S 208 $ 234 $ 251 $ 263 S 269 $ 270 $ 263 $ 256 $ 240 $ 231 S 222 $ 21 0 $ 200 10,000-49,999 $ $ $ $ $ 108 S 26 1 S 1022 $ 1138 $ 121 B $ 1268 S 1294 $ 1297 $ 1283 $ 1257 S 1224 $ 1144 $ 1100 S 1055 $ 950 50,000-99,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 91 S 220 $ 371 $ 538 S 774 $ 844 $ 890 S 925 $ 919 $ 904 $ 857 $ 797 $ 766 S 733 $ 692 $ 659 100,000- 999,999 $ $ S $ $ $ 397 $ 960 $ 1624 $ 235 1 $ 3152 $ 3403 $ 3568 $ 3650 $ 366 1 $ 3624 $ 3555 $ 3464 $ 3357 $ 311 6 $ 2990 $ 2862 $ 2570 > 1,000 ,000 $ $ $ $ $ $ 332 $ 804 $ 1359 $ 2639 $ 2850 $ 3057 $ 3066 $ 3035 $ 2977 $ 2901 $ 261 0 $ 2504 $ 2397 $ 2152 Total S $ $ $ S $ 961 $ 2325 $ 3932 S 5692 $ 791 5 $ 8601 S 9059 $ 9306 $ 9368 $ 9300 S 9141 $ 8652 S 8045 $ 7723 $ 7397 $ 6646 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model <100 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 00 S 00 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 S 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 S 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 S 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 S 0 1 100-499 S $ $ s $ 0 1 S 03 $ 06 S 09 $ 1 0 $ 1 1 $ 1 1 S 1 1 $ 1 1 $ 1 1 $ 1 1 $ 1 1 $ 1 0 $ 1 0 S 1 0 500-999 $ $ $ $ $ 02 $ 03 $ 08 $ 1 0 $ 1 2 $ 1 3 $ 1 4 $ 1 5 $ 1 5 $ 1 5 $ 1 5 $ 1 4 $ 1 4 $ 1 3 $ 1 3 « ,2 1,000-3,299 S $ $ s $ 07 $ ,8 S 37 $ 47 $ 57 $ 62 S 65 $ 68 $ 69 S 69 $ 68 S 65 $ 63 $ B, 3,300-9,999 $ $ $ $ $ 18 $ 40 S 90 $ 115 $ 140 $ 152 S 159 $ 167 $ 168 S 168 $ 164 S 157 $ 154 $ 149 10,000-49,999 $ $ $ $ $ 102 $ 225 $ 497 $ 634 $ 730 $ 776 $ 805 $ 827 $ 827 $ 820 $ 795 $ 759 $ 738 $ 71 6 50,000-99,999 S $ $ $ $ 86 $ 190 S 420 $ 501 $ 541 $ 565 S 580 $ 589 $ 586 S 580 $ 559 S 532 $ 51 6 $ 500 100,000- 999,999 S $ $ $ $ 377 $ 834 $ 2043 $ 2175 $ 2258 S 2306 $ 2327 $ 231 1 S 2282 $ 2196 S 2085 $ 2023 $ 1959 >1, 000,000 $ $ $ $ 31 6 $ 699 S 1539 $ 171 3 $ 1823 $ 1892 S 1932 $ 1950 $ 1936 S 191 2 $ 1840 S 1746 $ 1694 $ 1640 Total S $ S $ 90S $ 201 1 S 4432 $ 5072 $ 5489 $ 573 1 S 5873 $ 5956 $ 5924 S 5858 $ 5648 S 5369 $ 521 3 $ 5050 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model <100 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 00 $ 0 1 $ 02 $ 02 $ 03 $ 03 $ 03 $ 03 $ 03 $ 03 $ 02 $ 02 $ 02 $ 02 100-499 $ S $ $ $ 02 S 06 $ 1 3 $ 1 7 S 20 $ 22 $ 22 S 22 $ 22 $ 2 1 $ 20 $ 1 7 S 1 6 500-999 S $ $ $ $ 03 $ 08 S 1 7 $ 22 $ 27 $ 29 S 29 $ 30 $ 29 $ 29 S 28 $ 26 S 24 $ 23 $ 2 1 « ,B 1,000-3,299 $ $ S $ $ 1 5 S 36 $ 58 $ 104 S 125 $ 134 $ 138 $ 139 S 137 $ 134 $ 130 S 121 $ 116 $ 111 $ 105 S 100 « BB 3,300-9,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 37 $ 142 $ 198 $ 252 $ 305 $ 327 $ 337 $ 338 $ 335 $ 327 $ 31 B $ 295 $ 270 $ 257 $ 245 $ 21 7 10,000- 49,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 202 $ 462 $ 745 $ 1033 $ 131 4 $ 1504 $ 1583 $ 1607 $ 1582 $ 1543 $ 1495 $ 1383 $ 1324 $ 1265 $ 1205 $ 1147 $ 1020 50,000-99,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 170 $ 390 $ 629 $ 1040 $ 1113 $ 1145 $ 1149 $ 1137 $ 1112 $ 1080 $ 1043 $ 1003 $ 962 $ 835 $ 794 $ 705 100,000- 999,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 745 $ 1704 $ 2749 S 3809 $ 425 1 $ 4469 $ 455 1 S 4543 $ 4475 $ 4366 $ 4232 S 4080 $ 391 9 $ 3752 S 341 7 $ 3253 $ 3093 $ 2745 > 1,000,000 s $ $ $ s $ 624 $ 2303 S 319 1 $ 3560 $ 3743 $ 3811 S 3804 $ 3747 $ 3656 $ 3543 S 341 6 $ 328 1 $ 3142 $ 300 1 S 286 1 $ 2724 $ 2589 $ 2298 Total $ $ S $ $ $ 1800 S 4120 $ 6649 $ 921 5 $ 1,0561 S 1,1308 $ 1,1603 $ 1,1636 $ 1,1497 S 1,1243 $ 1,0913 $ 1,0534 $ 1,0126 S 9702 $ 9273 $ 842 1 S 8008 $ 7109 $ 18,007.2 Denver) from Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Section F.3 Model Outputs - Preferred Alternative TTHM as Indicator Bronchitis for Non-Fatal Cases ------- ------- Exhibit F.3a Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Surface Water Systems Serving <100 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 1.6 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.4 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 3.6 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 1.1 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.2 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 2.4 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 2.0 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.4 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 4.4 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38b, E.38f, and E.38J. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.3b Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Surface Water Systems Serving 100-499 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 0.7 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.9 $ 1.0 $ 1.0 $ 1.0 $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 1.2 $ 1.2 $ 1.2 $ 1.2 $ 15.2 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 3.3 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.4 $ 0.6 $ 0.8 $ 1.1 $ 1.3 $ 1.5 $ 1.7 $ 1.8 $ 2.0 $ 2.1 $ 2.2 $ 2.3 $ 2.4 $ 2.5 $ 2.6 $ 2.7 $ 2.7 $ 2.7 $ 33.7 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 9.9 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 2.1 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.6 $ 0.7 $ 0.8 $ 1.0 $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 1.2 $ 1.3 $ 1.4 $ 1.5 $ 1.6 $ 1.6 $ 1.7 $ 1.8 $ 1.8 $ 1.9 $ 22.1 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.6 $ 0.7 $ 0.8 $ 0.9 $ 1.0 $ 1.0 $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 1.2 $ 1.2 $ 1.2 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 18.3 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 4.0 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.3 $ 0.6 $ 0.9 $ 1.2 $ 1.6 $ 1.8 $ 2.0 $ 2.2 $ 2.3 $ 2.4 $ 2.5 $ 2.6 $ 2.7 $ 2.7 $ 2.8 $ 2.9 $ 2.9 $ 2.9 $ 3.0 $ 40.5 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38b, E.38f, and E.38J. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.3c Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Surface Water Systems Serving 500-999 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 0.9 $ 1.0 $ 1.2 $ 1.3 $ 1.5 $ 1.6 $ 1.7 $ 1.8 $ 1.8 $ 1.9 $ 2.0 $ 2.0 $ 2.1 $ 2.1 $ 2.2 $ 26.7 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 5.8 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.4 $ 0.6 $ 1.0 $ 1.4 $ 1.9 $ 2.3 $ 2.6 $ 3.0 $ 3.2 $ 3.5 $ 3.7 $ 3.9 $ 4.1 $ 4.3 $ 4.4 $ 4.5 $ 4.7 $ 4.7 $ 4.8 $ 59.3 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.6 $ 0.7 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.9 $ 1.0 $ 1.0 $ 1.1 $ 1.2 $ 1.2 $ 1.3 $ 1.4 $ 1.4 $ 1.4 $ 1.5 $ 17.5 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 3.8 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.3 $ 0.5 $ 0.7 $ 1.0 $ 1.3 $ 1.5 $ 1.7 $ 1.9 $ 2.0 $ 2.2 $ 2.3 $ 2.5 $ 2.6 $ 2.8 $ 2.9 $ 3.0 $ 3.2 $ 3.2 $ 3.3 $ 38.9 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.3 $ 0.5 $ 0.7 $ 1.0 $ 1.3 $ 1.5 $ 1.6 $ 1.7 $ 1.8 $ 1.9 $ 2.0 $ 2.1 $ 2.1 $ 2.2 $ 2.2 $ 2.3 $ 2.3 $ 2.3 $ 2.4 $ 32.2 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 7.0 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.6 $ 1.1 $ 1.6 $ 2.2 $ 2.8 $ 3.2 $ 3.5 $ 3.8 $ 4.0 $ 4.2 $ 4.4 $ 4.6 $ 4.7 $ 4.8 $ 4.9 $ 5.1 $ 5.2 $ 5.2 $ 5.3 $ 71.4 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38b, E.38f, and E.38J. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.3d Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Surface Water Systems Serving 1,000-3,299 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.4 $ 1.0 $ 1.9 $ 2.9 $ 4.2 $ 5.6 $ 6.7 $ 7.7 $ 8.6 $ 9.5 $ 10.2 $ 10.8 $ 11.4 $ 11.9 $ 12.3 $ 12.8 $ 13.2 $ 13.5 $ 13.7 $ 14.0 $ 172.1 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.4 $ 0.6 $ 0.9 $ 1.2 $ 1.5 $ 1.7 $ 1.9 $ 2.1 $ 2.2 $ 2.3 $ 2.5 $ 2.6 $0 7 Z. / $ 2.7 $ 2.8 $ 2.9 $ 2.9 $ 3.0 $ 37.2 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.9 $ 2.3 $ 4.2 $ 6.4 $ 9.1 $ 12.3 $ 14.8 $ 17.0 $ 19.1 $ 20.9 $ 22.6 $ 24.0 $ 25.3 $ 26.4 $ 27.4 $ 28.4 $ 29.3 $ 30.2 $ 30.5 $ 31.2 $ 382.3 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.3 $ 0.8 $ 1.4 $ 2.1 $ 2.9 $ 3.8 $ 4.4 $ 4.9 $ 5.4 $ 5.9 $ 6.3 $ 6.8 $ 7.2 $ 7.6 $ 8.0 $ 8.4 $ 8.7 $ 9.1 $ 9.3 $ 9.6 $ 112.8 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 0.8 $ 1.0 $ 1.1 $ 1.2 $ 1.3 $ 1.4 $ 1.5 $ 1.6 $ 1.6 $ 1.7 $ 1.8 $ 1.9 $ 2.0 $ 2.0 $ 2.1 $ 24.4 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.7 $ 1.8 $ 3.1 $ 4.6 $ 6.3 $ 8.3 $ 9.6 $ 10.8 $ 11.9 $ 13.0 $ 14.0 $ 15.0 $ 16.0 $ 16.9 $ 17.8 $ 18.6 $ 19.5 $ 20.3 $ 20.8 $ 21.5 $ 250.6 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.7 $ 1.8 $ 3.1 $ 4.6 $ 6.3 $ 8.2 $ 9.4 $ 10.3 $ 11.1 $ 11.8 $ 12.3 $ 12.8 $ 13.3 $ 13.7 $ 14.0 $ 14.3 $ 14.6 $ 14.9 $ 15.0 $ 15.2 $ 207.4 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.4 $ 0.7 $ 1.0 $ 1.4 $ 1.8 $ 2.0 $ 2.3 $ 2.4 $ 2.6 $ 2.7 $ 2.8 $ 2.9 $ 2.9 $ 3.0 $ 3.1 $ 3.1 $ 3.2 $ 3.2 $ 3.3 $ 44.9 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.6 $ 3.9 $ 6.8 $ 10.2 $ 13.9 $ 18.0 $ 20.7 $ 22.8 $ 24.6 $ 26.1 $ 27.4 $ 28.5 $ 29.5 $ 30.4 $ 31.2 $ 31.9 $ 32.6 $ 33.3 $ 33.4 $ 33.9 $ 460.4 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38b, E.38f, and E.38J. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.3e Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Surface Water Systems Serving 3,300-9,999 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.1 $ 3.0 $ 5.4 $ 8.4 $ 11.9 $ 15.9 $ 19.2 $ 22.1 $ 24.7 $ 27.1 $ 29.1 $ 30.9 $ 32.5 $ 34.0 $ 35.3 $ 36.5 $ 37.6 $ 38.7 $ 39.1 $ 39.9 $ 492.4 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.3 $ 0.7 $ 1.2 $ 1.8 $ 2.6 $ 3.5 $ 4.2 $ 4.8 $ 5.4 $ 5.9 $ 6.3 $ 6.7 $ 7.0 $ 7.3 $ 7.6 $ 7.9 $ 8.1 $ 8.3 $ 8.4 $ 8.6 $ 106.5 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.5 $ 6.6 $ 11.9 $ 18.4 $ 26.2 $ 35.1 $ 42.3 $ 48.8 $ 54.6 $ 59.9 $ 64.6 $ 68.7 $ 72.3 $ 75.5 $ 78.5 $ 81.2 $ 83.8 $ 86.3 $ 87.2 $ 89.2 $ 1,093.5 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.0 $ 2.3 $ 4.0 $ 6.0 $ 8.2 $ 10.7 $ 12.5 $ 14.0 $ 15.4 $ 16.8 $ 18.1 $ 19.4 $ 20.5 $ 21.7 $ 22.8 $ 23.9 $ 25.0 $ 26.0 $ 26.7 $ 27.6 $ 322.7 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.5 $ 0.9 $ 1.3 $ 1.8 $ 2.3 $ 2.7 $ 3.1 $ 3.4 $ 3.7 $ 3.9 $ 4.2 $ 4.4 $ 4.7 $ 4.9 $ 5.1 $ 5.4 $ 5.6 $ 5.7 $ 5.9 $ 69.8 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.1 $ 5.1 $ 8.8 $ 13.2 $ 18.1 $ 23.7 $ 27.5 $ 30.9 $ 34.1 $ 37.2 $ 40.1 $ 42.9 $ 45.7 $ 48.3 $ 50.8 $ 53.3 $ 55.7 $ 58.1 $ 59.5 $ 61.6 $ 716.7 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.0 $ 5.1 $ 8.8 $ 13.2 $ 18.1 $ 23.3 $ 26.8 $ 29.6 $ 31.8 $ 33.7 $ 35.3 $ 36.7 $ 38.0 $ 39.1 $ 40.1 $ 41.0 $ 41.8 $ 42.6 $ 42.8 $ 43.4 $ 593.3 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.4 $ 1.1 $ 1.9 $ 2.9 $ 4.0 $ 5.1 $ 5.9 $ 6.5 $ 6.9 $ 7.3 $ 7.7 $ 8.0 $ 8.2 $ 8.4 $ 8.6 $ 8.8 $ 9.0 $ 9.1 $ 9.2 $ 9.3 $ 128.4 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 4.5 $ 11.2 $ 19.4 $ 29.0 $ 39.8 $ 51.5 $ 59.1 $ 65.3 $ 70.3 $ 74.6 $ 78.3 $ 81.5 $ 84.4 $ 86.9 $ 89.1 $ 91.2 $ 93.2 $ 95.2 $ 95.4 $ 97.0 $ 1,316.9 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38b, E.38f, and E.38J. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.3f Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Surface Water Systems Serving 10,000-49,999 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 7.0 $ 18.1 $ 32.8 $ 50.8 $ 72.3 $ 93.4 $ 111.3 $ 127.5 $ 142.3 $ 155.4 $ 166.8 $ 176.7 $ 185.5 $ 193.4 $ 200.7 $ 207.3 $ 213.5 $ 219.3 $ 221.6 $ 226.1 $2,821.9 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.5 $ 4.0 $ 7.2 $ 11.2 $ 15.8 $ 20.4 $ 24.3 $ 27.8 $ 31.0 $ 33.8 $ 36.2 $ 38.3 $ 40.1 $ 41.7 $ 43.3 $ 44.6 $ 45.9 $ 47.0 $ 47.6 $ 48.5 $ 610.2 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 15.4 $ 39.9 $ 72.2 $ 111.8 $ 159.1 $ 205.9 $ 245.3 $ 281.7 $ 314.4 $ 344.2 $ 369.7 $ 392.1 $ 412.5 $ 430.1 $ 446.4 $ 461.5 $ 475.4 $ 489.5 $ 494.2 $ 505.2 $ 6,266.3 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 6.6 $ 15.8 $ 26.9 $ 39.8 $ 54.3 $ 66.9 $ 76.2 $ 84.5 $ 92.3 $ 99.6 $ 106.5 $ 113.2 $ 119.6 $ 125.8 $ 131.8 $ 137.6 $ 143.3 $ 148.8 $ 152.0 $ 156.9 $ 1,898.2 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.5 $ 3.5 $ 5.9 $ 8.7 $ 11.9 $ 14.6 $ 16.7 $ 18.5 $ 20.1 $ 21.7 $ 23.1 $ 24.5 $ 25.9 $ 27.1 $ 28.4 $ 29.6 $ 30.8 $ 31.9 $ 32.6 $ 33.6 $ 410.6 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 14.6 $ 34.7 $ 59.1 $ 87.5 $ 119.6 $ 147.6 $ 168.0 $ 186.7 $ 203.9 $ 220.5 $ 236.1 $ 251.1 $ 265.8 $ 279.6 $ 293.1 $ 306.3 $ 319.0 $ 332.2 $ 339.1 $ 350.5 $ 4,214.9 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 13.1 $ 32.2 $ 55.5 $ 82.4 $ 112.2 $ 137.5 $ 154.8 $ 168.7 $ 180.2 $ 189.9 $ 198.4 $ 205.8 $ 212.4 $ 218.4 $ 223.9 $ 229.0 $ 233.7 $ 238.2 $ 239.1 $ 242.5 $ 3,367.9 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.9 $ 7.1 $ 12.2 $ 18.1 $ 24.6 $ 30.1 $ 33.8 $ 36.8 $ 39.2 $ 41.3 $ 43.1 $ 44.6 $ 46.0 $ 47.1 $ 48.3 $ 49.3 $ 50.2 $ 51.1 $ 51.3 $ 52.0 $ 728.9 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 28.9 $ 70.8 $ 122.3 $ 181.3 $ 246.9 $ 303.1 $ 341.3 $ 372.6 $ 398.1 $ 420.6 $ 439.6 $ 456.6 $ 472.2 $ 485.6 $ 498.0 $ 509.7 $ 520.4 $ 531.8 $ 533.3 $ 541.9 $ 7,474.9 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38b, E.38f, and E.38J. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.3g Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Surface Water Systems Serving 50,000-99,999 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 6.1 $ 15.8 $ 28.6 $ 44.3 $ 59.8 $ 73.1 $ 85.3 $ 96.4 $ 106.4 $ 114.9 $ 122.3 $ 128.8 $ 134.7 $ 140.0 $ 144.9 $ 149.4 $ 153.6 $ 157.6 $ 159.1 $ 162.2 $ 2,083.3 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ - $ $ 1.3 $ 3.5 $ 6.3 $ 9.7 $ 13.1 $ 16.0 $ 18.6 $ 21.1 $ 23.2 $ 25.0 $ 26.5 $ 27.9 $ 29.1 $ 30.2 $ 31.2 $ 32.1 $ 33.0 $ 33.8 $ 34.1 $ 34.8 $ 450.7 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 13.4 $ 34.8 $ 62.9 $ 97.4 $ 131.7 $ 161.2 $ 188.1 $ 213.0 $ 235.0 $ 254.5 $ 271.1 $ 285.9 $ 299.4 $ 311.3 $ 322.3 $ 332.5 $ 342.0 $ 351.8 $ 354.8 $ 362.4 $ 4,625.4 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ - $ $ 5.8 $ 13.7 $ 23.4 $ 34.6 $ 44.3 $ 51.2 $ 57.3 $ 62.9 $ 68.2 $ 73.2 $ 78.0 $ 82.6 $ 87.1 $ 91.4 $ 95.6 $ 99.7 $ 103.6 $ 107.5 $ 109.7 $ 113.1 $ 1,403.1 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ - $ $ 1.3 $ 3.0 $ 5.1 $ 7.6 $ 9.7 $ 11.2 $ 12.5 $ 13.7 $ 14.9 $ 15.9 $ 16.9 $ 17.9 $ 18.8 $ 19.7 $ 20.6 $ 21.4 $ 22.3 $ 23.1 $ 23.6 $ 24.2 $ 303.5 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 12.7 $ 30.2 $ 51.5 $ 76.2 $ 97.5 $ 112.8 $ 126.3 $ 138.9 $ 150.7 $ 162.1 $ 172.9 $ 183.4 $ 193.6 $ 203.2 $ 212.6 $ 221.8 $ 230.7 $ 240.0 $ 244.8 $ 252.7 $ 3,114.9 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ - $ $ 11.4 $ 28.0 $ 48.4 $ 71.8 $ 91.8 $ 105.2 $ 115.8 $ 124.5 $ 131.8 $ 138.1 $ 143.7 $ 148.6 $ 153.0 $ 157.0 $ 160.7 $ 164.2 $ 167.5 $ 170.6 $ 171.1 $ 173.5 $ 2,476.5 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ - $ $ 2.5 $ 6.2 $ 10.6 $ 15.8 $ 20.1 $ 23.0 $ 25.3 $ 27.2 $ 28.7 $ 30.0 $ 31.2 $ 32.2 $ 33.1 $ 33.9 $ 34.6 $ 35.3 $ 36.0 $ 36.6 $ 36.7 $ 37.2 $ 536.2 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 25.2 $ 61.7 $ 106.5 $ 158.0 $ 202.0 $ 231.9 $ 255.2 $ 274.9 $ 291.2 $ 305.9 $ 318.4 $ 329.6 $ 340.1 $ 349.1 $ 357.5 $ 365.5 $ 372.9 $ 380.8 $ 381.6 $ 387.6 $ 5,495.5 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38b, E.38f, and E.38J. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.3h Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Surface Water Systems Serving 100,000-999,999 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 27.0 $ 69.8 $ 126.4 $ 195.9 $ 250.5 $ 301 .3 $ 348.3 $ 391.1 $ 428.4 $ 460.1 $ 487.8 $ 512.4 $ 534.6 $ 554.8 $ 573.5 $ 590.8 $ 607.0 $ 622.3 $ 627.9 $ 639.9 $ 8,349.8 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 5.9 $ 15.4 $ 27.8 $ 43.0 $ 54.9 $ 65.9 $ 76.1 $ 85.4 $ 93.3 $ 100.0 $ 105.9 $ 111.1 $ 115.7 $ 119.7 $ 123.6 $ 127.1 $ 130.4 $ 133.5 $ 134.7 $ 137.2 $ 1,806.5 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 59.3 $ 153.7 $ 278.2 $ 431.1 $ 551 .4 $ 664.3 $ 767.8 $ 863.7 $ 946.6 $ 1,018.9 $ 1,081.1 $ 1,137.0 $ 1,188.6 $ 1 ,233.7 $ 1 ,275.7 $ 1,315.0 $ 1,351.6 $ 1,389.1 $ 1 ,400.3 $ 1 ,429.7 $ 18,536.8 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 25.6 $ 60.7 $ 103.6 $ 153.3 $ 182.6 $ 208.1 $ 231.3 $ 252.9 $ 273.3 $ 292.7 $ 311.2 $ 329.1 $ 346.4 $ 363.1 $ 379.4 $ 395.3 $ 410.7 $ 425.9 $ 434.5 $ 447.6 $ 5,627.4 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 5.6 $ 13.4 $ 22.7 $ 33.7 $ 40.0 $ 45.5 $ 50.6 $ 55.2 $ 59.5 $ 63.6 $ 67.6 $ 71.3 $ 74.9 $ 78.3 $ 81.8 $ 85.0 $ 88.2 $ 91.3 $ 93.2 $ 95.9 $ 1,217.6 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 56.4 $ 133.7 $ 227.9 $ 337.3 $ 402.1 $ 459.0 $ 510.0 $ 558.6 $ 603.8 $ 648.1 $ 689.7 $ 730.2 $ 770.1 $ 807.4 $ 844.0 $ 879.8 $ 914.5 $ 950.6 $ 969.0 $ 1,000.1 $ 12,492.3 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 50.6 $ 124.0 $ 214.1 $ 317.7 $ 379.5 $ 427.2 $ 465.7 $ 497.8 $ 525.1 $ 548.7 $ 569.4 $ 587.9 $ 604.7 $ 620.1 $ 634.3 $ 647.6 $ 660.2 $ 672.2 $ 674.1 $ 683.3 $ 9,904.2 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 11.1 $ 27.3 $ 47.0 $ 69.7 $ 83.2 $ 93.4 $ 101.8 $ 108.7 $ 114.3 $ 119.3 $ 123.6 $ 127.4 $ 130.8 $ 133.8 $ 136.7 $ 139.3 $ 141.8 $ 144.2 $ 144.7 $ 146.4 $ 2,144.7 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 111.3 $ 273.1 $ 471.3 $ 698.9 $ 835.4 $ 942.0 $ 1,026.7 $ 1,099.4 $ 1,160.0 $ 1,214.9 $ 1,261.9 $ 1,304.5 $ 1 ,344.4 $ 1,378.7 $ 1,411.0 $ 1,441.6 $ 1,470.1 $ 1 ,500.6 $ 1,503.4 $ 1 ,526.5 $ 21 ,975.8 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38b, E.38f, and E.38J. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.3i Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Surface Water Systems Serving >1,000,000 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 22.9 $ 59.4 $ 107.6 $ 166.7 $ 213.2 $ 256.4 $ 296.4 $ 332.8 $ 364.6 $ 391 .6 $ 415.2 $ 436.1 $ 455.0 $ 472.2 $ 488.1 $ 502.8 $ 516.6 $ 529.6 $ 534.4 $ 544.6 $ 7,106.2 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 5.1 $ 13.1 $ 23.6 $ 36.6 $ 46.7 $ 56.1 $ 64.8 $ 72.7 $ 79.4 $ 85.1 $ 90.1 $ 94.5 $ 98.4 $ 101.9 $ 105.2 $ 108.2 $ 111.0 $ 113.6 $ 114.7 $ 116.7 $ 1,537.4 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 50.4 $ 130.8 $ 236.7 $ 366.9 $ 469.3 $ 565.3 $ 653.4 $ 735.1 $ 805.6 $ 867.2 $ 920.1 $ 967.6 $ 1,011.5 $ 1 ,049.9 $ 1 ,085.7 $ 1,119.2 $ 1,150.3 $ 1,182.2 $ 1,191.7 $ 1,216.7 $ 15,775.9 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 21.8 $ 51.7 $ 88.1 $ 130.5 $ 155.4 $ 177.1 $ 196.9 $ 215.3 $ 232.6 $ 249.1 $ 264.9 $ 280.1 $ 294.8 $ 309.0 $ 322.9 $ 336.4 $ 349.6 $ 362.4 $ 369.8 $ 381.0 $ 4,789.3 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 4.8 $ 11.4 $ 19.4 $ 28.6 $ 34.1 $ 38.7 $ 43.0 $ 47.0 $ 50.6 $ 54.2 $ 57.5 $ 60.7 $ 63.8 $ 66.7 $ 69.6 $ 72.4 $ 75.1 $ 77.7 $ 79.3 $ 81.7 $ 1,036.3 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 48.0 $ 113.8 $ 194.0 $ 287.0 $ 342.2 $ 390.6 $ 434.0 $ 475.4 $ 513.9 $ 551 .6 $ 587.0 $ 621 .5 $ 655.4 $ 687.2 $ 718.3 $ 748.8 $ 778.3 $ 809.0 $ 824.6 $ 851.1 $ 10,631.7 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 43.1 $ 105.5 $ 182.2 $ 270.3 $ 323.0 $ 363.6 $ 396.4 $ 423.7 $ 446.9 $ 466.9 $ 484.6 $ 500.4 $ 514.6 $ 527.7 $ 539.8 $ 551 .2 $ 561 .9 $ 572.1 $ 573.7 $ 581 .5 $ 8,429.0 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 9.5 $ 23.2 $ 40.0 $ 59.4 $ 70.8 $ 79.5 $ 86.6 $ 92.5 $ 97.3 $ 101.5 $ 105.2 $ 108.5 $ 111.3 $ 113.9 $ 116.4 $ 118.6 $ 120.7 $ 122.7 $ 123.1 $ 124.6 $ 1,825.3 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 94.8 $ 232.4 $ 401.1 $ 594.8 $ 711.0 $ 801.7 $ 873.8 $ 935.7 $ 987.2 $ 1 ,034.0 $ 1 ,073.9 $ 1,110.2 $ 1,144.1 $ 1,173.4 $ 1 ,200.9 $ 1,226.9 $ 1,251.1 $ 1,277.1 $ 1,279.5 $ 1,299.2 $ 18,702.7 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38b, E.38f, and E.38J. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.3j Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (All Surface Water Systems) TTHM - Preferred Alternative Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 64.6 $ 167.4 $ 303.1 $ 469.8 $ 612.9 $ 747.0 $ 868.9 $ 979.6 $ 1,077.3 $ 1,161.0 $ 1,234.0 $ 1,298.6 $ 1,356.6 $ 1,409.3 $ 1,457.8 $ 1,502.7 $ 1,544.8 $ 1,584.4 $ 1,599.1 $ 1,630.3 $ 21,069.2 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 14.2 $ 36.8 $ 66.6 $ 103.1 $ 134.3 $ 163.4 $ 189.9 $ 213.8 $ 234.6 $ 252.4 $ 267.8 $ 281.5 $ 293.5 $ 304.1 $ 314.3 $ 323.3 $ 331.9 $ 339.8 $ 343.2 $ 349.4 $ 4,557.9 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 142.1 $ 368.7 $ 667.1 $ 1,033.7 $ 1,349.2 $ 1,647.2 $ 1,915.4 $ 2,163.6 $ 2,379.9 $ 2,570.9 $ 2,734.8 $ 2,881.4 $ 3,016.0 $ 3,133.7 $ 3,243.0 $ 3,345.0 $ 3,439.7 $ 3,536.8 $ 3,566.4 $ 3,642.2 $ 46,776.7 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 61.3 $ 145.2 $ 247.7 $ 366.8 $ 448.5 $ 518.8 $ 579.6 $ 635.8 $ 688.6 $ 738.7 $ 786.7 $ 832.8 $ 877.4 $ 920.5 $ 962.5 $ 1,003.3 $ 1,043.1 $ 1,082.1 $ 1,104.4 $ 1,138.2 $ 14,182.1 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 13.5 $ 31.9 $ 54.4 $ 80.5 $ 98.3 $ 113.5 $ 126.7 $ 138.8 $ 149.9 $ 160.6 $ 170.8 $ 180.5 $ 189.8 $ 198.6 $ 207.5 $ 215.8 $ 224.1 $ 232.1 $ 237.0 $ 244.0 $ 3,068.3 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 134.7 $ 319.9 $ 545.3 $ 806.9 $ 987.4 $ 1,144.0 $ 1,277.8 $ 1,404.2 $ 1,521.3 $ 1,635.8 $ 1,743.5 $ 1,847.9 $ 1,950.6 $ 2,046.8 $ 2,141.1 $ 2,233.3 $ 2,322.6 $ 2,415.4 $ 2,463.0 $ 2,543.0 $ 31,484.4 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 121.2 $ 297.0 $ 513.0 $ 761.2 $ 932.4 $ 1,066.9 $ 1,171.3 $ 1,257.2 $ 1,329.7 $ 1,392.1 $ 1,446.8 $ 1,495.4 $ 1,539.3 $ 1,579.3 $ 1,616.3 $ 1,650.9 $ 1,683.5 $ 1,714.5 $ 1,719.5 $ 1,743.2 $ 25,030.6 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 26.7 $ 65.3 $ 112.7 $ 167.1 $ 204.3 $ 233.4 $ 256.0 $ 274.4 $ 289.6 $ 302.7 $ 314.0 $ 324.2 $ 333.0 $ 340.8 $ 348.4 $ 355.1 $ 361.7 $ 367.7 $ 369.0 $ 373.6 $ 5,419.7 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 266.6 $ 654.1 $ 1,129.2 $ 1,674.8 $ 2,052.4 $ 2,352.6 $ 2,582.0 $ 2,776.5 $ 2,937.6 $ 3,082.7 $ 3,206.3 $ 3,318.1 $ 3,422.2 $ 3,511.6 $ 3,595.6 $ 3,674.8 $ 3,748.5 $ 3,827.0 $ 3,834.9 $ 3,894.5 $ 55,542.2 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38b, E.38f, and E.38J. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.3k Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Ground Water Systems Serving <100 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 3.6 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.8 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 8.0 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 2.3 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.5 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 5.2 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 4.3 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.9 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 9.6 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38c, E.38g, and E.38k. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.3I Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Ground Water Systems Serving 100-499 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.6 $ 0.9 $ 1.0 $ 1.2 $ 1.3 $ 1.5 $ 1.6 $ 1.7 $ 1.7 $ 1.8 $ 1.9 $ 2.0 $ 2.0 $ 2.1 $ 2.1 $ 2.1 $ 26.5 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 5.7 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.4 $ 0.6 $ 1.0 $ 1.4 $ 1.9 $ 2.3 $ 2.6 $ 2.9 $ 3.2 $ 3.5 $ 3.7 $ 3.9 $ 4.1 $ 4.2 $ 4.4 $ 4.5 $ 4.6 $ 4.7 $ 4.8 $ 58.8 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.6 $ 0.7 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.9 $ 1.0 $ 1.0 $ 1.1 $ 1.2 $ 1.2 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.4 $ 1.4 $ 1.5 $ 17.3 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 3.8 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.3 $ 0.5 $ 0.7 $ 1.0 $ 1.3 $ 1.5 $ 1.7 $ 1.8 $ 2.0 $ 2.2 $ 2.3 $ 2.5 $ 2.6 $ 2.7 $ 2.9 $ 3.0 $ 3.1 $ 3.2 $ 3.3 $ 38.5 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.3 $ 0.5 $ 0.7 $ 1.0 $ 1.3 $ 1.4 $ 1.6 $ 1.7 $ 1.8 $ 1.9 $ 2.0 $ 2.0 $ 2.1 $ 2.2 $ 2.2 $ 2.2 $ 2.3 $ 2.3 $ 2.3 $ 31.9 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 6.9 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.6 $ 1.0 $ 1.6 $ 2.1 $ 2.8 $ 3.2 $ 3.5 $ 3.8 $ 4.0 $ 4.2 $ 4.4 $ 4.5 $ 4.7 $ 4.8 $ 4.9 $ 5.0 $ 5.1 $ 5.1 $ 5.2 $ 70.8 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38c, E.38g, and E.38k. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.3m Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Ground Water Systems Serving 500-999 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.5 $ 0.7 $ 0.9 $ 1.1 $ 1.3 $ 1.4 $ 1.5 $ 1.7 $ 1.8 $ 1.9 $ 1.9 $ 2.0 $ 2.1 $ 2.2 $ 2.2 $ 2.2 $ 2.3 $ 28.2 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 6.1 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.4 $ 0.7 $ 1.1 $ 1.5 $ 2.0 $ 2.4 $ 2.8 $ 3.1 $ 3.4 $ 3.7 $ 3.9 $ 4.1 $ 4.3 $ 4.5 $ 4.6 $ 4.8 $ 4.9 $ 5.0 $ 5.1 $ 62.5 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 0.7 $ 0.8 $ 0.9 $ 1.0 $ 1.0 $ 1.1 $ 1.2 $ 1.2 $ 1.3 $ 1.4 $ 1.4 $ 1.5 $ 1.5 $ 1.6 $ 18.5 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 4.0 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.3 $ 0.5 $ 0.8 $ 1.0 $ 1.4 $ 1.6 $ 1.8 $ 2.0 $ 2.1 $ 2.3 $ 2.5 $ 2.6 $ 2.8 $ 2.9 $ 3.0 $ 3.2 $ 3.3 $ 3.4 $ 3.5 $ 41.0 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.3 $ 0.5 $ 0.8 $ 1.0 $ 1.3 $ 1.5 $ 1.7 $ 1.8 $ 1.9 $ 2.0 $ 2.1 $ 2.2 $ 2.2 $ 2.3 $ 2.3 $ 2.4 $ 2.4 $ 2.4 $ 2.5 $ 33.9 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 7.3 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.3 $ 0.6 $ 1.1 $ 1.7 $ 2.3 $ 2.9 $ 3.4 $ 3.7 $ 4.0 $ 4.3 $ 4.5 $ 4.7 $ 4.8 $ 5.0 $ 5.1 $ 5.2 $ 5.3 $ 5.4 $ 5.5 $ 5.5 $ 75.3 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38c, E.38g, and E.38k. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.3n Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Ground Water Systems Serving 1,000-3,299 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.5 $ 0.9 $ 1.4 $ 2.1 $ 2.7 $ 3.3 $ 3.8 $ 4.3 $ 4.7 $ 5.0 $ 5.3 $ 5.6 $ 5.9 $ 6.1 $ 6.3 $ 6.5 $ 6.7 $ 6.7 $ 6.9 $ 85.0 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.6 $ 0.7 $ 0.8 $ 0.9 $ 1.0 $ 1.1 $ 1.2 $ 1.2 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.4 $ 1.4 $ 1.4 $ 1.4 $ 1.5 $ 18.4 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.4 $ 1.1 $ 2.1 $ 3.2 $ 4.5 $ 6.1 $ 7.3 $ 8.4 $ 9.4 $ 10.3 $ 11.1 $ 11.8 $ 12.5 $ 13.0 $ 13.6 $ 14.0 $ 14.5 $ 14.9 $ 15.1 $ 15.4 $ 188.7 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.4 $ 0.7 $ 1.0 $ 1.4 $ 1.9 $ 2.2 $ 2.4 $ 2.7 $ 2.9 $ 3.1 $ 3.3 $ 3.5 $ 3.7 $ 3.9 $ 4.1 $ 4.3 $ 4.5 $ 4.6 $ 4.8 $ 55.7 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.9 $ 0.9 $ 1.0 $ 1.0 $ 1.0 $ 12.0 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.4 $ 0.9 $ 1.5 $ 2.3 $ 3.1 $ 4.1 $ 4.7 $ 5.3 $ 5.9 $ 6.4 $ 6.9 $ 7.4 $ 7.9 $ 8.3 $ 8.8 $ 9.2 $ 9.6 $ 10.0 $ 10.3 $ 10.6 $ 123.7 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.4 $ 0.9 $ 1.5 $ 2.3 $ 3.1 $ 4.0 $ 4.6 $ 5.1 $ 5.5 $ 5.8 $ 6.1 $ 6.3 $ 6.6 $ 6.7 $ 6.9 $ 7.1 $ 7.2 $ 7.4 $ 7.4 $ 7.5 $ 102.4 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.5 $ 0.7 $ 0.9 $ 1.0 $ 1.1 $ 1.2 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.4 $ 1.4 $ 1.5 $ 1.5 $ 1.5 $ 1.6 $ 1.6 $ 1.6 $ 1.6 $ 22.2 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.8 $ 1.9 $ 3.4 $ 5.0 $ 6.9 $ 8.9 $ 10.2 $ 11.3 $ 12.1 $ 12.9 $ 13.5 $ 14.1 $ 14.6 $ 15.0 $ 15.4 $ 15.7 $ 16.1 $ 16.4 $ 16.5 $ 16.7 $ 227.3 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38c, E.38g, and E.38k. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.3o Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Ground Water Systems Serving 3,300-9,999 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.3 $ 0.8 $ 1.5 $ 2.3 $ 3.2 $ 4.3 $ 5.2 $ 6.0 $ 6.7 $ 7.4 $ 8.0 $ 8.4 $ 8.9 $ 9.3 $ 9.6 $ 10.0 $ 10.3 $ 10.6 $ 10.7 $ 10.9 $ 134.4 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.5 $ 0.7 $ 1.0 $ 1.1 $ 1.3 $ 1.5 $ 1.6 $ 1.7 $ 1.8 $ 1.9 $ 2.0 $ 2.1 $ 2.1 $ 2.2 $ 2.3 $ 2.3 $ 2.3 $ 29.1 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.7 $ 1.8 $ 3.2 $ 5.0 $ 7.1 $ 9.6 $ 11.5 $ 13.3 $ 14.9 $ 16.4 $ 17.6 $ 18.7 $ 19.8 $ 20.6 $ 21.4 $ 22.2 $ 22.9 $ 23.6 $ 23.8 $ 24.4 $ 298.6 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.3 $ 0.6 $ 1.1 $ 1.6 $ 2.2 $ 2.9 $ 3.4 $ 3.8 $ 4.2 $ 4.6 $ 4.9 $ 5.3 $ 5.6 $ 5.9 $ 6.2 $ 6.5 $ 6.8 $ 7.1 $ 7.3 $ 7.5 $ 88.1 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 0.7 $ 0.8 $ 0.9 $ 1.0 $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 1.2 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.4 $ 1.5 $ 1.5 $ 1.6 $ 1.6 $ 19.1 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.6 $ 1.4 $ 2.4 $ 3.6 $ 4.9 $ 6.5 $ 7.5 $ 8.4 $ 9.3 $ 10.2 $ 11.0 $ 11.7 $ 12.5 $ 13.2 $ 13.9 $ 14.5 $ 15.2 $ 15.9 $ 16.2 $ 16.8 $ 195.7 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.6 $ 1.4 $ 2.4 $ 3.6 $ 4.9 $ 6.4 $ 7.3 $ 8.1 $ 8.7 $ 9.2 $ 9.6 $ 10.0 $ 10.4 $ 10.7 $ 10.9 $ 11.2 $ 11.4 $ 11.6 $ 11.7 $ 11.8 $ 162.0 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.3 $ 0.5 $ 0.8 $ 1.1 $ 1.4 $ 1.6 $ 1.8 $ 1.9 $ 2.0 $ 2.1 $ 2.2 $ 2.2 $ 2.3 $ 2.4 $ 2.4 $ 2.5 $ 2.5 $ 2.5 $ 2.5 $ 35.1 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.2 $ 3.0 $ 5.3 $ 7.9 $ 10.9 $ 14.1 $ 16.1 $ 17.8 $ 19.2 $ 20.4 $ 21.4 $ 22.2 $ 23.0 $ 23.7 $ 24.3 $ 24.9 $ 25.4 $ 26.0 $ 26.1 $ 26.5 $ 359.5 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38c, E.38g, and E.38k. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.3p Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Ground Water Systems Serving 10,000-49,999 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.5 $ 1.2 $ 2.2 $ 3.5 $ 4.9 $ 6.3 $ 7.5 $ 8.6 $ 9.6 $ 10.5 $ 11.2 $ 11.9 $ 12.5 $ 13.0 $ 13.5 $ 13.9 $ 14.4 $ 14.8 $ 14.9 $ 15.2 $ 190.2 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.3 $ 0.5 $ 0.8 $ 1.1 $ 1.4 $ 1.6 $ 1.9 $ 2.1 $ 2.3 $ 2.4 $ 2.6 $ 2.7 $ 2.8 $ 2.9 $ 3.0 $ 3.1 $ 3.2 $ 3.2 $ 3.3 $ 41.1 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.0 $ 2.7 $ 4.9 $ 7.6 $ 10.8 $ 14.0 $ 16.6 $ 19.1 $ 21.2 $ 23.2 $ 24.9 $ 26.4 $ 27.7 $ 28.9 $ 30.0 $ 31.0 $ 32.0 $ 32.9 $ 33.3 $ 34.0 $ 422.4 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.4 $ 1.0 $ 1.7 $ 2.5 $ 3.4 $ 4.2 $ 4.9 $ 5.4 $ 6.0 $ 6.5 $ 7.0 $ 7.4 $ 7.9 $ 8.3 $ 8.8 $ 9.2 $ 9.6 $ 10.0 $ 10.2 $ 10.5 $ 124.8 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.7 $ 0.9 $ 1.1 $ 1.2 $ 1.3 $ 1.4 $ 1.5 $ 1.6 $ 1.7 $ 1.8 $ 1.9 $ 2.0 $0 4 Z. I $ 2.1 $ 2.2 $ 2.3 $ 27.0 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.9 $ 2.1 $ 3.7 $ 5.5 $ 7.5 $ 9.3 $ 10.7 $ 12.0 $ 13.2 $ 14.4 $ 15.5 $ 16.5 $ 17.6 $ 18.5 $ 19.5 $ 20.4 $ 21.3 $ 22.2 $ 22.7 $ 23.5 $ 277.1 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.8 $ 2.1 $ 3.7 $ 5.5 $ 7.5 $ 9.2 $ 10.5 $ 11.4 $ 12.3 $ 12.9 $ 13.5 $ 14.0 $ 14.5 $ 14.9 $ 15.3 $ 15.6 $ 15.9 $ 16.2 $ 16.3 $ 16.5 $ 228.8 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.5 $ 0.8 $ 1.2 $ 1.6 $ 2.0 $ 2.3 $ 2.5 $ 2.7 $ 2.8 $ 2.9 $ 3.0 $ 3.1 $ 3.2 $ 3.3 $ 3.4 $ 3.4 $ 3.5 $ 3.5 $ 3.5 $ 49.5 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.9 $ 4.6 $ 8.1 $ 12.0 $ 16.5 $ 20.4 $ 23.1 $ 25.3 $ 27.1 $ 28.7 $ 30.0 $ 31.2 $ 32.2 $ 33.1 $ 34.0 $ 34.8 $ 35.5 $ 36.2 $ 36.3 $ 36.9 $ 507.8 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38c, E.38g, and E.38k. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.3q Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Ground Water Systems Serving 50,000-99,999 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.5 $ 0.9 $ 1.5 $ 2.0 $ 2.4 $ 2.8 $ 3.1 $ 3.4 $ 3.7 $ 4.0 $ 4.2 $ 4.4 $ 4.5 $ 4.7 $ 4.8 $ 5.0 $ 5.1 $ 5.1 $ 5.2 $ 67.5 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 0.7 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.9 $ 0.9 $ 0.9 $ 1.0 $ 1.0 $ 1.0 $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 14.6 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.4 $ 1.1 $ 2.1 $ 3.2 $ 4.3 $ 5.3 $ 6.1 $ 6.9 $ 7.6 $ 8.2 $ 8.8 $ 9.2 $ 9.7 $ 10.1 $ 10.4 $ 10.7 $ 11.1 $ 11.4 $ 11.5 $ 11.7 $ 149.8 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.4 $ 0.7 $ 1.0 $ 1.3 $ 1.6 $ 1.8 $ 2.0 $ 2.1 $ 2.3 $ 2.5 $ 2.6 $ 2.8 $ 2.9 $ 3.1 $ 3.2 $ 3.3 $ 3.5 $ 3.5 $ 3.7 $ 44.4 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 9.6 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.4 $ 0.9 $ 1.5 $ 2.3 $ 2.9 $ 3.4 $ 3.9 $ 4.3 $ 4.7 $ 5.1 $ 5.5 $ 5.8 $ 6.2 $ 6.5 $ 6.8 $ 7.1 $ 7.4 $ 7.7 $ 7.9 $ 8.2 $ 98.5 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.4 $ 0.9 $ 1.5 $ 2.3 $ 3.0 $ 3.4 $ 3.8 $ 4.1 $ 4.3 $ 4.5 $ 4.7 $ 4.9 $ 5.0 $ 5.1 $ 5.3 $ 5.4 $ 5.5 $ 5.6 $ 5.6 $ 5.7 $ 80.8 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 0.7 $ 0.8 $ 0.9 $ 0.9 $ 1.0 $ 1.0 $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 1.2 $ 1.2 $ 1.2 $ 1.2 $ 1.2 $ 17.5 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.8 $ 1.9 $ 3.4 $ 5.0 $ 6.5 $ 7.5 $ 8.3 $ 9.0 $ 9.5 $ 10.0 $ 10.4 $ 10.8 $ 11.2 $ 11.4 $ 11.7 $ 12.0 $ 12.2 $ 12.5 $ 12.5 $ 12.7 $ 179.4 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38c, E.38g, and E.38k. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.3r Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Ground Water Systems Serving 100,000-999,999 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.6 $ 1.4 $ 2.6 $ 4.0 $ 5.1 $ 6.2 $ 7.1 $ 7.9 $ 8.7 $ 9.3 $ 9.9 $ 10.4 $ 10.8 $ 11.2 $ 11.6 $ 12.0 $ 12.3 $ 12.6 $ 12.7 $ 13.0 $ 169.5 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.3 $ 0.6 $ 0.9 $ 1.1 $ 1.3 $ 1.6 $ 1.7 $ 1.9 $ 2.0 $ 2.1 $ 2.2 $ 2.3 $ 2.4 $ 2.5 $ 2.6 $ 2.6 $ 2.7 $ 2.7 $ 2.8 $ 36.7 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.2 $ 3.2 $ 5.7 $ 8.9 $ 11.3 $ 13.6 $ 15.7 $ 17.6 $ 19.2 $ 20.6 $ 21.9 $ 23.0 $ 24.1 $ 25.0 $ 25.8 $ 26.6 $ 27.4 $ 28.1 $ 28.4 $ 29.0 $ 376.2 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.5 $ 1.1 $ 1.9 $ 2.9 $ 3.5 $ 4.0 $ 4.5 $ 4.9 $ 5.4 $ 5.8 $ 6.2 $ 6.5 $ 6.9 $ 7.3 $ 7.6 $ 7.9 $ 8.3 $ 8.6 $ 8.8 $ 9.1 $ 111.5 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.4 $ 0.6 $ 0.8 $ 0.9 $ 1.0 $ 1.1 $ 1.2 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.4 $ 1.5 $ 1.6 $ 1.6 $ 1.7 $ 1.8 $ 1.8 $ 1.9 $ 1.9 $ 24.1 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.0 $ 2.5 $ 4.2 $ 6.3 $ 7.6 $ 8.8 $ 9.9 $ 10.9 $ 11.8 $ 12.8 $ 13.6 $ 14.5 $ 15.4 $ 16.1 $ 16.9 $ 17.7 $ 18.4 $ 19.2 $ 19.6 $ 20.3 $ 247.6 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.0 $ 2.4 $ 4.3 $ 6.4 $ 7.7 $ 8.7 $ 9.5 $ 10.2 $ 10.8 $ 11.3 $ 11.7 $ 12.1 $ 12.4 $ 12.7 $ 13.0 $ 13.3 $ 13.6 $ 13.8 $ 13.8 $ 14.0 $ 202.6 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.5 $ 0.9 $ 1.4 $ 1.7 $ 1.9 $ 2.1 $ 2.2 $ 2.3 $ 2.5 $ 2.5 $ 2.6 $ 2.7 $ 2.7 $ 2.8 $ 2.9 $ 2.9 $ 3.0 $ 3.0 $ 3.0 $ 43.9 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.2 $ 5.4 $ 9.4 $ 14.0 $ 16.9 $ 19.2 $ 21.0 $ 22.5 $ 23.8 $ 25.0 $ 25.9 $ 26.8 $ 27.6 $ 28.3 $ 29.0 $ 29.6 $ 30.2 $ 30.8 $ 30.8 $ 31.3 $ 449.5 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38c, E.38g, and E.38k. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.3s Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Ground Water Systems Serving >1,000,000 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.4 $ 0.7 $ 0.9 $ 1.0 $ 1.2 $ 1.3 $ 1.4 $ 1.6 $ 1.6 $ 1.7 $ 1.8 $ 1.9 $ 1.9 $ 2.0 $ 2.0 $ 2.1 $ 2.1 $ 2.2 $ 28.2 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 6.1 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.5 $ 1.0 $ 1.5 $ 1.9 $ 2.3 $ 2.6 $ 2.9 $ 3.2 $ 3.4 $ 3.6 $ 3.8 $ 4.0 $ 4.2 $ 4.3 $ 4.4 $ 4.6 $ 4.7 $ 4.7 $ 4.8 $ 62.6 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.8 $ 0.9 $ 1.0 $ 1.0 $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 1.2 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.4 $ 1.4 $ 1.5 $ 1.5 $ 18.6 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 4.0 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.4 $ 0.7 $ 1.1 $ 1.3 $ 1.5 $ 1.6 $ 1.8 $ 2.0 $ 2.1 $ 2.3 $ 2.4 $ 2.6 $ 2.7 $ 2.8 $ 2.9 $ 3.1 $ 3.2 $ 3.3 $ 3.4 $ 41.2 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.4 $ 0.7 $ 1.1 $ 1.3 $ 1.4 $ 1.6 $ 1.7 $ 1.8 $ 1.9 $ 1.9 $ 2.0 $ 2.1 $ 2.1 $ 2.2 $ 2.2 $ 2.3 $ 2.3 $ 2.3 $ 2.3 $ 33.7 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 7.3 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.4 $ 0.9 $ 1.6 $ 2.3 $ 2.8 $ 3.2 $ 3.5 $ 3.8 $ 4.0 $ 4.2 $ 4.3 $ 4.5 $ 4.6 $ 4.7 $ 4.8 $ 4.9 $ 5.0 $ 5.1 $ 5.1 $ 5.2 $ 74.9 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38c, E.38g, and E.38k. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.3t Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (All Ground Water Systems) TTHM - Preferred Alternative Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.0 $ 5.1 $ 9.3 $ 14.3 $ 19.6 $ 24.9 $ 29.4 $ 33.5 $ 37.1 $ 40.3 $ 43.1 $ 45.6 $ 47.8 $ 49.8 $ 51.6 $ 53.3 $ 54.9 $ 56.4 $ 56.9 $ 58.1 $ 733.0 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.4 $ 1.1 $ 2.0 $ 3.1 $ 4.3 $ 5.4 $ 6.4 $ 7.3 $ 8.1 $ 8.8 $ 9.4 $ 9.9 $ 10.3 $ 10.7 $ 11.1 $ 11.5 $ 11.8 $ 12.1 $ 12.2 $ 12.5 $ 158.5 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 4.3 $ 11.2 $ 20.4 $ 31.6 $ 43.1 $ 54.9 $ 64.9 $ 73.9 $ 82.0 $ 89.3 $ 95.6 $ 101.2 $ 106.3 $ 110.7 $ 114.8 $ 118.7 $ 122.2 $ 125.8 $ 127.0 $ 129.8 $ 1,627.6 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.7 $ 4.0 $ 6.9 $ 10.2 $ 13.4 $ 16.5 $ 18.9 $ 21.0 $ 23.1 $ 25.0 $ 26.8 $ 28.6 $ 30.3 $ 32.0 $ 33.6 $ 35.1 $ 36.6 $ 38.1 $ 39.0 $ 40.3 $ 481.2 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.4 $ 0.9 $ 1.5 $ 2.3 $ 2.9 $ 3.6 $ 4.1 $ 4.6 $ 5.0 $ 5.4 $ 5.8 $ 6.2 $ 6.6 $ 6.9 $ 7.2 $ 7.6 $ 7.9 $ 8.2 $ 8.4 $ 8.6 $ 104.1 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 3.7 $ 8.8 $ 15.1 $ 22.5 $ 29.6 $ 36.4 $ 41.6 $ 46.5 $ 51.0 $ 55.3 $ 59.5 $ 63.5 $ 67.4 $ 71.1 $ 74.7 $ 78.2 $ 81.6 $ 85.1 $ 87.0 $ 90.1 $ 1,068.5 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 3.5 $ 8.7 $ 15.1 $ 22.6 $ 29.6 $ 35.9 $ 40.5 $ 44.1 $ 47.1 $ 49.6 $ 51.8 $ 53.7 $ 55.4 $ 56.9 $ 58.3 $ 59.6 $ 60.8 $ 62.0 $ 62.1 $ 63.0 $ 880.4 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.8 $ 1.9 $ 3.3 $ 5.0 $ 6.5 $ 7.9 $ 8.8 $ 9.6 $ 10.3 $ 10.8 $ 11.2 $ 11.6 $ 12.0 $ 12.3 $ 12.6 $ 12.8 $ 13.1 $ 13.3 $ 13.3 $ 13.5 $ 190.6 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 7.7 $ 19.1 $ 33.3 $ 49.8 $ 65.1 $ 79.2 $ 89.2 $ 97.4 $ 104.0 $ 109.9 $ 114.8 $ 119.2 $ 123.2 $ 126.6 $ 129.8 $ 132.7 $ 135.4 $ 138.3 $ 138.6 $ 140.7 $ 1,954.0 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38c, E.38g, and E.38k. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.3u Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (All Water Systems) TTHM - Preferred Alternative Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 66.6 $ 172.5 $ 312.3 $ 484.2 $ 632.5 $ 771.9 $ 898.3 $ 1,013.1 $ 1,114.4 $ 1,201.3 $ 1,277.2 $ 1,344.2 $ 1,404.4 $ 1,459.1 $ 1,509.4 $ 1,556.0 $ 1,599.7 $ 1,640.8 $ 1,656.1 $ 1,688.4 $ 21,802.2 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 14.7 $ 37.9 $ 68.6 $ 106.3 $ 138.6 $ 168.9 $ 196.3 $ 221.2 $ 242.7 $ 261.2 $ 277.2 $ 291.4 $ 303.8 $ 314.8 $ 325.4 $ 334.7 $ 343.7 $ 351.9 $ 355.4 $ 361.9 $ 4,716.5 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 146.4 $ 379.9 $ 687.4 $ 1,065.2 $ 1,392.3 $ 1,702.1 $ 1,980.3 $ 2,237.5 $ 2,461.9 $ 2,660.2 $ 2,830.4 $ 2,982.5 $ 3,122.3 $ 3,244.4 $ 3,357.8 $ 3,463.7 $ 3,561.9 $ 3,662.6 $ 3,693.4 $ 3,772.1 $ 48,404.3 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 62.9 $ 149.2 $ 254.6 $ 377.0 $ 462.0 $ 535.3 $ 598.5 $ 656.8 $ 711.7 $ 763.7 $ 813.5 $ 861.4 $ 907.7 $ 952.5 $ 996.0 $ 1,038.4 $ 1,079.8 $ 1,120.2 $ 1,143.4 $ 1,178.6 $ 14,663.3 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 13.9 $ 32.8 $ 55.9 $ 82.8 $ 101.2 $ 117.1 $ 130.8 $ 143.4 $ 155.0 $ 166.0 $ 176.6 $ 186.7 $ 196.4 $ 205.5 $ 214.7 $ 223.4 $ 232.0 $ 240.3 $ 245.4 $ 252.6 $ 3,172.4 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 138.4 $ 328.7 $ 560.4 $ 829.5 $ 1,017.0 $ 1,180.4 $ 1,319.4 $ 1,450.7 $ 1,572.2 $ 1,691.2 $ 1,802.9 $ 1,911.4 $ 2,018.0 $ 2,117.9 $ 2,215.7 $ 2,311.5 $ 2,404.2 $ 2,500.5 $ 2,550.0 $ 2,633.1 $ 32,552.9 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 124.7 $ 305.7 $ 528.1 $ 783.8 $ 961.9 $ 1,102.9 $ 1,211.7 $ 1,301.2 $ 1,376.8 $ 1,441.7 $ 1,498.6 $ 1,549.2 $ 1,594.7 $ 1,636.3 $ 1,674.7 $ 1,710.5 $ 1,744.3 $ 1,776.4 $ 1,781.7 $ 1,806.2 $ 25,911.1 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 27.5 $ 67.2 $ 116.0 $ 172.1 $ 210.8 $ 241.2 $ 264.8 $ 284.0 $ 299.8 $ 313.4 $ 325.3 $ 335.8 $ 345.0 $ 353.0 $ 361.0 $ 368.0 $ 374.7 $ 381.0 $ 382.3 $ 387.1 $ 5,610.2 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 274.3 $ 673.3 $ 1,162.5 $ 1,724.5 $ 2,117.5 $ 2,431.9 $ 2,671.2 $ 2,873.8 $ 3,041.6 $ 3,192.6 $ 3,321.2 $ 3,437.3 $ 3,545.4 $ 3,638.2 $ 3,725.4 $ 3,807.5 $ 3,883.9 $ 3,965.3 $ 3,973.5 $ 4,035.3 $ 57,496.3 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.3J and F.3t. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.3v Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 3% Discount Rate (All Water Systems) TTHM - Preferred Alternative Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Ann. Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 57.4 $ 144.4 $ 253.9 $ 382.2 $ 484.7 $ 574.4 $ 648.9 $ 710.6 $ 758.8 $ 794.2 $ 819.8 $ 837.7 $ 849.7 $ 857.1 $ 860.8 $ 861.5 $ 859.9 $ 856.3 $ 839.1 $ 830.6 $ 13,282.1 $ 762.8 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 12.6 $ 31.8 $ 55.8 $ 83.9 $ 106.2 $ 125.6 $ 141.8 $ 155.1 $ 165.2 $ 172.7 $ 177.9 $ 181.6 $ 183.8 $ 184.9 $ 185.6 $ 185.3 $ 184.7 $ 183.7 $ 180.1 $ 178.0 $ 2,876.5 $ 165.2 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 126.3 $ 318.2 $ 558.9 $ 840.9 $ 1,067.1 $ 1,266.5 $ 1,430.6 $ 1,569.4 $ 1,676.4 $ 1,758.7 $ 1,816.7 $ 1,858.6 $ 1,889.0 $ 1,905.7 $ 1,914.9 $ 1,917.8 $ 1,914.7 $ 1,911.5 $ 1,871.4 $ 1,855.6 $ 29,468.9 $ 1,692.3 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 54.3 $ 125.0 $ 207.0 $ 297.6 $ 354.1 $ 398.3 $ 432.4 $ 460.7 $ 484.6 $ 504.9 $ 522.2 $ 536.8 $ 549.2 $ 559.5 $ 568.0 $ 574.9 $ 580.4 $ 584.6 $ 579.3 $ 579.8 $ 8,953.6 $ 514.2 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 12.0 $ 27.5 $ 45.5 $ 65.3 $ 77.6 $ 87.1 $ 94.5 $ 100.6 $ 105.5 $ 109.8 $ 113.3 $ 116.4 $ 118.8 $ 120.7 $ 122.5 $ 123.7 $ 124.7 $ 125.4 $ 124.3 $ 124.3 $ 1,939.4 $ 111.4 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 119.4 $ 275.2 $ 455.6 $ 654.8 $ 779.4 $ 878.3 $ 953.2 $ 1,017.5 $ 1,070.6 $ 1,118.1 $ 1,157.2 $ 1,191.1 $ 1,220.9 $ 1,244.0 $ 1,263.6 $ 1,279.8 $ 1,292.4 $ 1,305.0 $ 1,292.1 $ 1,295.3 $ 19,863.6 $ 1,140.7 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 107.6 $ 256.0 $ 429.4 $ 618.7 $ 737.2 $ 820.6 $ 875.4 $ 912.7 $ 937.5 $ 953.2 $ 961.9 $ 965.4 $ 964.8 $ 961.1 $ 955.0 $ 947.1 $ 937.6 $ 927.1 $ 902.8 $ 888.5 $ 16,059.7 $ 922.3 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 23.7 $ 56.3 $ 94.3 $ 135.8 $ 161.6 $ 179.5 $ 191.3 $ 199.2 $ 204.2 $ 207.2 $ 208.8 $ 209.3 $ 208.7 $ 207.4 $ 205.9 $ 203.7 $ 201.4 $ 198.8 $ 193.7 $ 190.4 $ 3,481.3 $ 199.9 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 236.6 $ 563.8 $ 945.2 $ 1,361.4 $ 1,622.9 $ 1,809.5 $ 1,929.7 $ 2,015.7 $ 2,071.2 $ 2,110.7 $ 2,131.7 $ 2,142.0 $ 2,145.0 $ 2,137.1 $ 2,124.6 $ 2,108.1 $ 2,087.8 $ 2,069.5 $ 2,013.3 $ 1,985.1 $ 35,610.9 $ 2,045.1 Notes: Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005. Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibit F.3u. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.3w Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 7% Discount Rate (All Water Systems) TTHM - Preferred Alternative Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Ann. Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 47.5 $ 114.9 $ 194.5 $ 281.8 $ 344.0 $ 392.4 $ 426.8 $ 449.8 $ 462.4 $ 465.9 $ 462.9 $ 455.3 $ 444.6 $ 431.7 $ 417.4 $ 402.1 $ 386.3 $ 370.3 $ 349.3 $ 332.9 $ 7,232.9 $ 620.7 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 10.5 $ 25.3 $ 42.7 $ 61.9 $ 75.4 $ 85.8 $ 93.3 $ 98.2 $ 100.7 $ 101.3 $ 100.5 $ 98.7 $ 96.2 $ 93.1 $ 90.0 $ 86.5 $ 83.0 $ 79.4 $ 75.0 $ 71.3 $ 1,568.7 $ 134.6 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 104.4 $ 253.1 $ 428.1 $ 620.0 $ 757.3 $ 865.3 $ 940.8 $ 993.5 $ 1,021.6 $ 1,031.7 $ 1,025.9 $ 1,010.3 $ 988.4 $ 959.9 $ 928.5 $ 895.1 $ 860.2 $ 826.7 $ 779.1 $ 743.6 $ 16,033.5 $ 1,375.8 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 44.9 $ 99.4 $ 158.5 $ 219.4 $ 251.3 $ 272.1 $ 284.3 $ 291.6 $ 295.3 $ 296.2 $ 294.9 $ 291.8 $ 287.4 $ 281.8 $ 275.4 $ 268.3 $ 260.8 $ 252.8 $ 241.2 $ 232.4 $ 4,899.9 $ 420.5 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 9.9 $ 21.9 $ 34.8 $ 48.2 $ 55.1 $ 59.5 $ 62.1 $ 63.7 $ 64.3 $ 64.4 $ 64.0 $ 63.3 $ 62.2 $ 60.8 $ 59.4 $ 57.7 $ 56.0 $ 54.2 $ 51.8 $ 49.8 $ 1,063.0 $ 91.2 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 98.7 $ 219.0 $ 349.0 $ 482.8 $ 553.2 $ 600.1 $ 626.8 $ 644.1 $ 652.4 $ 655.9 $ 653.5 $ 647.4 $ 638.8 $ 626.6 $ 612.7 $ 597.3 $ 580.7 $ 564.4 $ 537.9 $ 519.1 $ 10,860.3 $ 931.9 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 88.9 $ 203.7 $ 328.9 $ 456.2 $ 523.2 $ 560.6 $ 575.7 $ 577.8 $ 571.3 $ 559.1 $ 543.2 $ 524.8 $ 504.8 $ 484.1 $ 463.1 $ 442.0 $ 421.3 $ 401.0 $ 375.8 $ 356.1 $ 8,961.5 $ 769.0 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 19.6 $ 44.8 $ 72.2 $ 100.2 $ 114.7 $ 122.6 $ 125.8 $ 126.1 $ 124.4 $ 121.6 $ 117.9 $ 113.8 $ 109.2 $ 104.5 $ 99.8 $ 95.1 $ 90.5 $ 86.0 $ 80.7 $ 76.3 $ 1,945.7 $ 167.0 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 195.5 $ 448.6 $ 723.9 $ 1,003.7 $ 1,151.8 $ 1,236.2 $ 1,269.1 $ 1,276.0 $ 1,262.2 $ 1,238.1 $ 1,203.7 $ 1,164.3 $ 1,122.4 $ 1,076.4 $ 1,030.1 $ 983.9 $ 938.0 $ 895.0 $ 838.2 $ 795.5 $ 19,852.9 $ 1,703.6 Notes: Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005. Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibit F.3u. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.3x Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 3% Discount Rate, by Small & Large Size Categories (Surface Water Systems) TTHM - Preferred Alternative Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Ann. Small Systems Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.4 $ 3.6 $ 6.3 $ 9.5 $ 13.1 $ 17.0 $ 19.9 $ 22.3 $ 24.2 $ 25.7 $ 26.9 $ 27.7 $ 28.3 $ 28.7 $ 28.9 $ 29.1 $ 29.1 $ 29.0 $ 28.5 $ 28.2 $ 427.5 $ 24.5 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.3 $ 0.8 $ 1.4 $ 2.1 $ 2.9 $ 3.7 $ 4.4 $ 4.9 $ 5.3 $ 5.6 $ 5.8 $ 6.0 $ 6.1 $ 6.2 $ 6.2 $ 6.3 $ 6.2 $ 6.2 $ 6.1 $ 6.1 $ 92.5 $ 5.3 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 3.1 $ 7.9 $ 13.9 $ 20.9 $ 28.8 $ 37.6 $ 43.9 $ 49.2 $ 53.4 $ 57.0 $ 59.6 $ 61.5 $ 62.9 $ 63.8 $ 64.4 $ 64.7 $ 64.7 $ 64.8 $ 63.5 $ 63.1 $ 948.7 $ 54.5 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.2 $ 2.8 $ 4.7 $ 6.8 $ 9.1 $ 11.5 $ 12.9 $ 14.1 $ 15.1 $ 16.0 $ 16.7 $ 17.3 $ 17.9 $ 18.3 $ 18.7 $ 19.0 $ 19.3 $ 19.5 $ 19.4 $ 19.5 $ 280.0 $ 16.1 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.3 $ 0.6 $ 1.0 $ 1.5 $ 2.0 $ 2.5 $ 2.8 $ 3.1 $ 3.3 $ 3.5 $ 3.6 $ 3.8 $ 3.9 $ 4.0 $ 4.0 $ 4.1 $ 4.2 $ 4.2 $ 4.2 $ 4.2 $ 60.6 $ 3.5 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.6 $ 6.2 $ 10.3 $ 14.9 $ 20.0 $ 25.3 $ 28.5 $ 31.2 $ 33.4 $ 35.4 $ 37.0 $ 38.5 $ 39.7 $ 40.8 $ 41.7 $ 42.4 $ 43.0 $ 43.6 $ 43.3 $ 43.6 $ 621.5 $ 35.7 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.5 $ 6.1 $ 10.3 $ 15.0 $ 19.9 $ 25.0 $ 27.9 $ 29.8 $ 31.2 $ 32.0 $ 32.6 $ 32.9 $ 33.0 $ 33.0 $ 32.9 $ 32.6 $ 32.3 $ 32.0 $ 31.2 $ 30.7 $ 522.9 $ 30.0 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.6 $ 1.3 $ 2.3 $ 3.3 $ 4.4 $ 5.5 $ 6.1 $ 6.5 $ 6.8 $ 7.0 $ 7.1 $ 7.1 $ 7.1 $ 7.1 $ 7.1 $ 7.0 $ 6.9 $ 6.9 $ 6.7 $ 6.6 $ 113.3 $ 6.5 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 5.6 $ 13.4 $ 22.7 $ 33.0 $ 43.8 $ 55.1 $ 61.4 $ 65.9 $ 68.8 $ 71.0 $ 72.2 $ 73.0 $ 73.4 $ 73.4 $ 73.1 $ 72.6 $ 72.0 $ 71.4 $ 69.5 $ 68.6 $ 1,160.0 $ 66.6 Large Systems Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 54.3 $ 136.6 $ 240.1 $ 361.4 $ 456.6 $ 538.8 $ 607.8 $ 664.8 $ 709.4 $ 741.8 $ 765.2 $ 781.5 $ 792.5 $ 799.1 $ 802.4 $ 803.0 $ 801.3 $ 797.9 $ 781.8 $ 773.7 $ 12,410.1 $ 712.7 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 12.0 $ 30.0 $ 52.7 $ 79.3 $ 100.1 $ 117.9 $ 132.8 $ 145.1 $ 154.5 $ 161.3 $ 166.1 $ 169.4 $ 171.4 $ 172.4 $ 173.0 $ 172.7 $ 172.2 $ 171.1 $ 167.8 $ 165.8 $ 2,687.7 $ 154.3 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 119.5 $ 300.8 $ 528.5 $ 795.1 $ 1,005.2 $ 1,188.1 $ 1,339.8 $ 1,468.3 $ 1,567.2 $ 1,642.7 $ 1,695.8 $ 1,734.1 $ 1,761.8 $ 1,776.9 $ 1,785.0 $ 1,787.4 $ 1,784.2 $ 1,781.0 $ 1,743.5 $ 1,728.6 $ 27,533.7 $ 1,581.2 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 51.6 $ 118.8 $ 196.7 $ 282.7 $ 334.7 $ 374.6 $ 405.8 $ 431.8 $ 453.8 $ 472.4 $ 488.2 $ 501.7 $ 513.0 $ 522.4 $ 530.2 $ 536.4 $ 541.4 $ 545.2 $ 540.1 $ 540.4 $ 8,382.0 $ 481.4 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 11.4 $ 26.1 $ 43.2 $ 62.1 $ 73.3 $ 81.9 $ 88.7 $ 94.3 $ 98.8 $ 102.7 $ 106.0 $ 108.7 $ 111.0 $ 112.7 $ 114.3 $ 115.4 $ 116.3 $ 116.9 $ 115.9 $ 115.8 $ 1,815.6 $ 104.3 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 113.6 $ 261.7 $ 433.0 $ 622.1 $ 736.8 $ 825.9 $ 894.6 $ 953.7 $ 1,002.5 $ 1,046.1 $ 1,082.0 $ 1,113.1 $ 1,140.4 $ 1,161.5 $ 1,179.4 $ 1,194.1 $ 1,205.5 $ 1,217.0 $ 1,204.6 $ 1,207.4 $ 18,594.9 $ 1,067.9 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 102.0 $ 242.6 $ 406.8 $ 585.9 $ 694.7 $ 768.9 $ 818.3 $ 851.9 $ 874.3 $ 888.3 $ 896.1 $ 899.0 $ 898.3 $ 894.7 $ 888.9 $ 881.4 $ 872.6 $ 862.8 $ 840.1 $ 826.8 $ 14,994.4 $ 861.1 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 22.5 $ 53.4 $ 89.3 $ 128.6 $ 152.2 $ 168.2 $ 178.8 $ 186.0 $ 190.4 $ 193.1 $ 194.5 $ 194.9 $ 194.3 $ 193.0 $ 191.6 $ 189.6 $ 187.5 $ 185.0 $ 180.3 $ 177.2 $ 3,250.5 $ 186.7 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 224.4 $ 534.4 $ 895.4 $ 1,289.1 $ 1,529.2 $ 1,695.5 $ 1,803.9 $ 1,881.5 $ 1,931.5 $ 1,967.1 $ 1,985.8 $ 1,994.7 $ 1,997.0 $ 1,989.3 $ 1,977.5 $ 1,962.0 $ 1,943.0 $ 1,925.9 $ 1,873.6 $ 1,847.3 $ 33,248.1 $ 1,909.4 Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2 Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Derived from Exhibits F.3a through F.3i. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.3y Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 7% Discount Rate, by Small & Large Size Categories (Surface Water Systems) TTHM - Preferred Alternative Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Ann. Small Systems Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.2 $ 2.9 $ 4.8 $ 7.0 $ 9.3 $ 11.6 $ 13.1 $ 14.1 $ 14.7 $ 15.1 $ 15.2 $ 15.1 $ 14.8 $ 14.5 $ 14.0 $ 13.6 $ 13.1 $ 12.6 $ 11.9 $ 11.3 $ 229.7 $ 19.7 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.3 $ 0.6 $ 1.1 $ 1.5 $ 2.0 $ 2.5 $ 2.9 $ 3.1 $ 3.2 $ 3.3 $ 3.3 $ 3.3 $ 3.2 $ 3.1 $ 3.0 $ 2.9 $ 2.8 $ 2.7 $ 2.5 $ 2.4 $ 49.8 $ 4.3 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.6 $ 6.3 $ 10.6 $ 15.4 $ 20.5 $ 25.7 $ 28.9 $ 31.1 $ 32.6 $ 33.4 $ 33.7 $ 33.4 $ 32.9 $ 32.1 $ 31.2 $ 30.2 $ 29.1 $ 28.0 $ 26.5 $ 25.3 $ 509.4 $ 43.7 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.0 $ 2.2 $ 3.6 $ 5.0 $ 6.4 $ 7.8 $ 8.5 $ 8.9 $ 9.2 $ 9.4 $ 9.4 $ 9.4 $ 9.4 $ 9.2 $ 9.1 $ 8.9 $ 8.7 $ 8.4 $ 8.1 $ 7.8 $ 150.6 $ 12.9 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.5 $ 0.8 $ 1.1 $ 1.4 $ 1.7 $ 1.9 $ 2.0 $ 2.0 $ 2.0 $ 2.0 $ 2.0 $ 2.0 $ 2.0 $ 2.0 $ 1.9 $ 1.9 $ 1.8 $ 1.7 $ 1.7 $ 32.6 $ 2.8 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.2 $ 4.9 $ 7.9 $ 11.0 $ 14.2 $ 17.3 $ 18.8 $ 19.7 $ 20.4 $ 20.8 $ 20.9 $ 20.9 $ 20.8 $ 20.5 $ 20.2 $ 19.8 $ 19.3 $ 18.9 $ 18.0 $ 17.5 $ 334.0 $ 28.7 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.1 $ 4.9 $ 7.9 $ 11.0 $ 14.1 $ 17.1 $ 18.3 $ 18.9 $ 19.0 $ 18.8 $ 18.4 $ 17.9 $ 17.3 $ 16.6 $ 15.9 $ 15.2 $ 14.5 $ 13.8 $ 13.0 $ 12.3 $ 287.1 $ 24.6 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.5 $ 1.1 $ 1.7 $ 2.4 $ 3.1 $ 3.7 $ 4.0 $ 4.1 $ 4.1 $ 4.1 $ 4.0 $ 3.9 $ 3.7 $ 3.6 $ 3.4 $ 3.3 $ 3.1 $ 3.0 $ 2.8 $ 2.6 $ 62.3 $ 5.3 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 4.6 $ 10.7 $ 17.4 $ 24.3 $ 31.1 $ 37.6 $ 40.4 $ 41.7 $ 41.9 $ 41.6 $ 40.8 $ 39.7 $ 38.4 $ 37.0 $ 35.4 $ 33.9 $ 32.4 $ 30.9 $ 28.9 $ 27.5 $ 636.2 $ 54.6 Large Systems Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 44.9 $ 108.7 $ 183.9 $ 266.4 $ 324.1 $ 368.1 $ 399.7 $ 420.9 $ 432.3 $ 435.2 $ 432.1 $ 424.8 $ 414.7 $ 402.5 $ 389.1 $ 374.8 $ 360.0 $ 345.1 $ 325.5 $ 310.1 $ 6,762.7 $ 580.3 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 9.9 $ 23.9 $ 40.4 $ 58.5 $ 71.0 $ 80.5 $ 87.4 $ 91.9 $ 94.1 $ 94.6 $ 93.8 $ 92.1 $ 89.7 $ 86.8 $ 83.9 $ 80.6 $ 77.3 $ 74.0 $ 69.8 $ 66.5 $ 1,466.8 $ 125.9 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 98.8 $ 239.4 $ 404.8 $ 586.2 $ 713.4 $ 811.7 $ 881.1 $ 929.5 $ 955.0 $ 963.6 $ 957.6 $ 942.6 $ 921.9 $ 895.0 $ 865.5 $ 834.2 $ 801.6 $ 770.3 $ 725.9 $ 692.8 $ 14,990.8 $ 1,286.4 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 42.7 $ 94.5 $ 150.7 $ 208.4 $ 237.5 $ 255.9 $ 266.9 $ 273.4 $ 276.5 $ 277.1 $ 275.7 $ 272.7 $ 268.4 $ 263.1 $ 257.0 $ 250.4 $ 243.2 $ 235.8 $ 224.9 $ 216.6 $ 4,591.5 $ 394.0 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 9.4 $ 20.8 $ 33.1 $ 45.8 $ 52.1 $ 56.0 $ 58.3 $ 59.7 $ 60.2 $ 60.2 $ 59.8 $ 59.1 $ 58.1 $ 56.8 $ 55.4 $ 53.9 $ 52.3 $ 50.6 $ 48.3 $ 46.4 $ 996.1 $ 85.5 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 93.9 $ 208.2 $ 331.7 $ 458.6 $ 522.9 $ 564.3 $ 588.3 $ 603.7 $ 610.9 $ 613.6 $ 611.0 $ 605.0 $ 596.7 $ 585.0 $ 571.8 $ 557.3 $ 541.6 $ 526.3 $ 501.5 $ 483.9 $ 10,176.4 $ 873.2 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 84.3 $ 193.0 $ 311.6 $ 432.0 $ 493.0 $ 525.3 $ 538.1 $ 539.3 $ 532.8 $ 521.1 $ 506.0 $ 488.7 $ 470.0 $ 450.6 $ 431.0 $ 411.4 $ 392.0 $ 373.1 $ 349.7 $ 331.4 $ 8,374.6 $ 718.6 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 18.6 $ 42.5 $ 68.4 $ 94.8 $ 108.0 $ 114.9 $ 117.6 $ 117.7 $ 116.0 $ 113.3 $ 109.8 $ 105.9 $ 101.7 $ 97.2 $ 92.9 $ 88.5 $ 84.2 $ 80.0 $ 75.1 $ 71.0 $ 1,818.3 $ 156.0 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 185.5 $ 425.2 $ 685.8 $ 950.4 $ 1,085.3 $ 1,158.3 $ 1,186.3 $ 1,191.1 $ 1,177.1 $ 1,153.9 $ 1,121.3 $ 1,084.3 $ 1,045.0 $ 1,002.0 $ 958.8 $ 915.7 $ 872.9 $ 832.9 $ 780.0 $ 740.3 $ 18,552.2 $ 1,592.0 Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005. Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Derived from Exhibits F.3a through F.3i. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.3z Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 3% Discount Rate, by Small & Large Size Categories (Ground Water Systems) TTHM - Preferred Alternative Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Ann. Small Systems Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.6 $ 1.4 $ 2.5 $ 3.7 $ 5.1 $ 6.7 $ 7.8 $ 8.7 $ 9.5 $ 10.1 $ 10.5 $ 10.9 $ 11.1 $ 11.3 $ 11.3 $ 11.4 $ 11.4 $ 11.4 $ 11.2 $ 11.1 $ 167.6 $ 9.6 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.3 $ 0.5 $ 0.8 $ 1.1 $ 1.5 $ 1.7 $ 1.9 $ 2.1 $ 2.2 $ 2.3 $ 2.4 $ 2.4 $ 2.4 $ 2.4 $ 2.5 $ 2.4 $ 2.4 $ 2.4 $ 2.4 $ 36.3 $ 2.1 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.2 $ 3.1 $ 5.5 $ 8.2 $ 11.3 $ 14.7 $ 17.2 $ 19.3 $ 21.0 $ 22.3 $ 23.4 $ 24.1 $ 24.7 $ 25.0 $ 25.2 $ 25.4 $ 25.4 $ 25.4 $ 24.9 $ 24.7 $ 372.0 $ 21.4 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.5 $ 1.1 $ 1.8 $ 2.7 $ 3.6 $ 4.5 $ 5.1 $ 5.5 $ 5.9 $ 6.3 $ 6.6 $ 6.8 $ 7.0 $ 7.2 $ 7.3 $ 7.5 $ 7.6 $ 7.7 $ 7.6 $ 7.6 $ 109.8 $ 6.3 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.4 $ 0.6 $ 0.8 $ 1.0 $ 1.1 $ 1.2 $ 1.3 $ 1.4 $ 1.4 $ 1.5 $ 1.5 $ 1.6 $ 1.6 $ 1.6 $ 1.6 $ 1.6 $ 1.6 $ 1.6 $ 23.8 $ 1.4 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.0 $ 2.4 $ 4.0 $ 5.9 $ 7.8 $ 9.9 $ 11.2 $ 12.2 $ 13.1 $ 13.9 $ 14.5 $ 15.1 $ 15.6 $ 16.0 $ 16.3 $ 16.6 $ 16.9 $ 17.1 $ 17.0 $ 17.1 $ 243.8 $ 14.0 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.0 $ 2.4 $ 4.1 $ 5.9 $ 7.8 $ 9.8 $ 10.9 $ 11.7 $ 12.2 $ 12.6 $ 12.8 $ 12.9 $ 12.9 $ 12.9 $ 12.9 $ 12.8 $ 12.7 $ 12.5 $ 12.2 $ 12.0 $ 205.0 $ 11.8 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.5 $ 0.9 $ 1.3 $ 1.7 $ 2.1 $ 2.4 $ 2.6 $ 2.7 $ 2.7 $ 2.8 $ 2.8 $ 2.8 $ 2.8 $ 2.8 $ 2.8 $ 2.7 $ 2.7 $ 2.6 $ 2.6 $ 44.4 $ 2.6 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.2 $ 5.3 $ 8.9 $ 12.9 $ 17.2 $ 21.6 $ 24.1 $ 25.8 $ 27.0 $ 27.8 $ 28.3 $ 28.6 $ 28.8 $ 28.8 $ 28.7 $ 28.5 $ 28.2 $ 28.0 $ 27.3 $ 26.9 $ 454.8 $ 26.1 Large Systems Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.1 $ 2.9 $ 5.1 $ 7.6 $ 9.9 $ 11.9 $ 13.4 $ 14.7 $ 15.8 $ 16.6 $ 17.1 $ 17.5 $ 17.8 $ 18.0 $ 18.1 $ 18.1 $ 18.1 $ 18.0 $ 17.7 $ 17.5 $ 277.0 $ 15.9 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.3 $ 0.6 $ 1.1 $ 1.7 $ 2.2 $ 2.6 $ 2.9 $ 3.2 $ 3.4 $ 3.6 $ 3.7 $ 3.8 $ 3.9 $ 3.9 $ 3.9 $ 3.9 $ 3.9 $ 3.9 $ 3.8 $ 3.8 $ 60.0 $ 3.4 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.5 $ 6.3 $ 11.1 $ 16.7 $ 21.7 $ 26.1 $ 29.6 $ 32.6 $ 34.9 $ 36.7 $ 38.0 $ 38.9 $ 39.6 $ 40.0 $ 40.2 $ 40.3 $ 40.3 $ 40.3 $ 39.4 $ 39.1 $ 614.5 $ 35.3 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.0 $ 2.2 $ 3.7 $ 5.4 $ 6.7 $ 7.8 $ 8.6 $ 9.2 $ 9.8 $ 10.3 $ 10.7 $ 11.0 $ 11.3 $ 11.6 $ 11.8 $ 12.0 $ 12.1 $ 12.2 $ 12.2 $ 12.2 $ 181.8 $ 10.4 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.5 $ 0.8 $ 1.2 $ 1.5 $ 1.7 $ 1.9 $ 2.0 $ 2.1 $ 2.2 $ 2.3 $ 2.4 $ 2.4 $ 2.5 $ 2.5 $ 2.6 $ 2.6 $ 2.6 $ 2.6 $ 2.6 $ 39.4 $ 2.3 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.1 $ 4.9 $ 8.2 $ 11.9 $ 14.8 $ 17.2 $ 18.9 $ 20.4 $ 21.6 $ 22.7 $ 23.6 $ 24.5 $ 25.2 $ 25.7 $ 26.2 $ 26.7 $ 27.0 $ 27.3 $ 27.1 $ 27.2 $ 403.4 $ 23.2 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.0 $ 4.9 $ 8.3 $ 12.0 $ 14.9 $ 16.9 $ 18.3 $ 19.2 $ 19.8 $ 20.2 $ 20.5 $ 20.6 $ 20.6 $ 20.5 $ 20.4 $ 20.2 $ 20.0 $ 19.8 $ 19.3 $ 19.0 $ 337.3 $ 19.4 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.4 $ 1.1 $ 1.8 $ 2.6 $ 3.3 $ 3.7 $ 4.0 $ 4.2 $ 4.3 $ 4.4 $ 4.4 $ 4.5 $ 4.5 $ 4.4 $ 4.4 $ 4.3 $ 4.3 $ 4.2 $ 4.1 $ 4.1 $ 73.1 $ 4.2 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 4.4 $ 10.7 $ 18.2 $ 26.4 $ 32.7 $ 37.4 $ 40.3 $ 42.5 $ 43.8 $ 44.8 $ 45.4 $ 45.7 $ 45.8 $ 45.6 $ 45.4 $ 45.0 $ 44.6 $ 44.2 $ 43.0 $ 42.3 $ 748.0 $ 43.0 Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005. Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Derived from Exhibits F.3k through F.3s. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.Saa Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 7% Discount Rate, by Small & Large Size Categories (Surface Water Systems) TTHM - Preferred Alternative Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Ann. Small Systems Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.5 $ 1.1 $ 1.9 $ 2.7 $ 3.6 $ 4.6 $ 5.1 $ 5.5 $ 5.8 $ 5.9 $ 6.0 $ 5.9 $ 5.8 $ 5.7 $ 5.5 $ 5.3 $ 5.1 $ 4.9 $ 4.7 $ 4.4 $ 90.1 $ 7.7 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.4 $ 0.6 $ 0.8 $ 1.0 $ 1.1 $ 1.2 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.2 $ 1.2 $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 1.0 $ 1.0 $ 19.5 $ 1.7 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.0 $ 2.5 $ 4.2 $ 6.0 $ 8.0 $ 10.1 $ 11.3 $ 12.2 $ 12.8 $ 13.1 $ 13.2 $ 13.1 $ 12.9 $ 12.6 $ 12.2 $ 11.8 $ 11.4 $ 11.0 $ 10.4 $ 9.9 $ 199.8 $ 17.1 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.4 $ 0.9 $ 1.4 $ 2.0 $ 2.5 $ 3.1 $ 3.3 $ 3.5 $ 3.6 $ 3.7 $ 3.7 $ 3.7 $ 3.7 $ 3.6 $ 3.6 $ 3.5 $ 3.4 $ 3.3 $ 3.2 $ 3.1 $ 59.1 $ 5.1 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.6 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 12.8 $ 1.1 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.9 $ 1.9 $ 3.1 $ 4.3 $ 5.6 $ 6.8 $ 7.4 $ 7.7 $ 8.0 $ 8.1 $ 8.2 $ 8.2 $ 8.2 $ 8.1 $ 7.9 $ 7.8 $ 7.6 $ 7.4 $ 7.1 $ 6.8 $ 131.0 $ 11.2 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.8 $ 1.9 $ 3.1 $ 4.3 $ 5.5 $ 6.7 $ 7.2 $ 7.4 $ 7.4 $ 7.4 $ 7.2 $ 7.0 $ 6.8 $ 6.5 $ 6.2 $ 6.0 $ 5.7 $ 5.4 $ 5.1 $ 4.8 $ 112.6 $ 9.7 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.4 $ 0.7 $ 1.0 $ 1.2 $ 1.5 $ 1.6 $ 1.6 $ 1.6 $ 1.6 $ 1.6 $ 1.5 $ 1.5 $ 1.4 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.2 $ 1.2 $ 1.1 $ 1.0 $ 24.4 $ 2.1 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.8 $ 4.2 $ 6.8 $ 9.5 $ 12.2 $ 14.8 $ 15.8 $ 16.3 $ 16.4 $ 16.3 $ 16.0 $ 15.6 $ 15.1 $ 14.5 $ 13.9 $ 13.3 $ 12.7 $ 12.1 $ 11.4 $ 10.8 $ 249.5 $ 21.4 Large Systems Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.9 $ 2.3 $ 3.9 $ 5.6 $ 7.0 $ 8.1 $ 8.8 $ 9.3 $ 9.6 $ 9.7 $ 9.7 $ 9.5 $ 9.3 $ 9.1 $ 8.8 $ 8.5 $ 8.1 $ 7.8 $ 7.4 $ 7.0 $ 150.5 $ 12.9 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.5 $ 0.8 $ 1.2 $ 1.5 $ 1.8 $ 1.9 $ 2.0 $ 2.1 $ 2.1 $ 2.1 $ 2.1 $ 2.0 $ 2.0 $ 1.9 $ 1.8 $ 1.7 $ 1.7 $ 1.6 $ 1.5 $ 32.6 $ 2.8 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.1 $ 5.0 $ 8.5 $ 12.3 $ 15.4 $ 17.9 $ 19.5 $ 20.6 $ 21.3 $ 21.5 $ 21.4 $ 21.2 $ 20.7 $ 20.2 $ 19.5 $ 18.8 $ 18.1 $ 17.4 $ 16.4 $ 15.7 $ 333.5 $ 28.6 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.8 $ 1.8 $ 2.9 $ 4.0 $ 4.8 $ 5.3 $ 5.6 $ 5.8 $ 6.0 $ 6.0 $ 6.0 $ 6.0 $ 5.9 $ 5.8 $ 5.7 $ 5.6 $ 5.4 $ 5.3 $ 5.1 $ 4.9 $ 98.8 $ 8.5 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.4 $ 0.6 $ 0.9 $ 1.0 $ 1.2 $ 1.2 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.2 $ 1.2 $ 1.2 $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 1.0 $ 21.4 $ 1.8 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.7 $ 3.9 $ 6.3 $ 8.8 $ 10.5 $ 11.7 $ 12.4 $ 12.9 $ 13.2 $ 13.3 $ 13.4 $ 13.3 $ 13.2 $ 13.0 $ 12.7 $ 12.4 $ 12.1 $ 11.8 $ 11.3 $ 10.9 $ 218.9 $ 18.8 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.7 $ 3.9 $ 6.3 $ 8.8 $ 10.5 $ 11.6 $ 12.0 $ 12.2 $ 12.1 $ 11.9 $ 11.6 $ 11.2 $ 10.8 $ 10.3 $ 9.9 $ 9.4 $ 9.0 $ 8.6 $ 8.0 $ 7.6 $ 187.3 $ 16.1 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.4 $ 0.9 $ 1.4 $ 1.9 $ 2.3 $ 2.5 $ 2.6 $ 2.7 $ 2.6 $ 2.6 $ 2.5 $ 2.4 $ 2.3 $ 2.2 $ 2.1 $ 2.0 $ 1.9 $ 1.8 $ 1.7 $ 1.6 $ 40.7 $ 3.5 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 3.7 $ 8.5 $ 13.9 $ 19.4 $ 23.2 $ 25.5 $ 26.5 $ 26.9 $ 26.7 $ 26.3 $ 25.6 $ 24.8 $ 23.9 $ 23.0 $ 22.0 $ 21.0 $ 20.0 $ 19.1 $ 17.9 $ 17.0 $ 415.0 $ 35.6 Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005. Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Derived from Exhibits F.3k through F.3s. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.3ab Mean Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Bronchitis a (All Systems) ; Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 3% Discount Rate, by System Size TTHM - Preferred Alternative Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Ann. <100 $ - $ - $ - $ - S 00 $ 00 $ 0 1 S 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 02 $ 02 S 02 $ 02 $ 02 $ 02 $ 02 $ 02 $ 02 $ 02 S 02 $ 02 $ 02 100-499 $ $ $ $ $ 02 $ 04 $ 06 $ 1 0 $ 1 3 $ 1 4 $ 1 5 $ 1 6 $ 1 6 $ 1 7 $ 1 7 $ 1 7 $ 1 7 $ 1 7 $ 1 7 $ 1 7 $ 1 7 500-999 S $ $ s $ 03 $ 05 S 07 $ 1 3 S 1 7 $ 19 $ 20 $ 2 1 S 2 1 $ 22 $ 22 $ 22 S 23 $ 23 $ 22 $ 22 $ 22 1,000-3,299 S $ $ s $ 1 3 $ 23 S 35 $ 62 $ 81 $ 88 $ 93 $ 98 S 10 1 $ 103 $ 104 $ 105 S 106 $ 106 $ 105 $ 103 $ 103 3,300-9,999 $ $ $ $ $ 32 $ 56 $ B4 $ 15 1 S 197 $ 214 $ 228 $ 238 S 245 $ 25 1 $ 254 $ 256 S 257 $ 257 $ 257 $ 252 $ 250 10,000-49,999 $ $ $ $ « HI $ 429 $ 742 $ 955 $ 1034 $ 1097 $ 1143 $ 1175 $ 121 3 $ 1221 $ 1225 $ 1225 $ 1221 $ 1198 $ IITT. 50,000-99,999 S $ $ $ $ $ 136 $ 240 S 36 1 $ 562 $ 698 $ 748 $ 784 $ 81 0 S 829 $ 84 1 $ 849 $ 853 S 854 $ 852 $ 849 $ 832 $ 824. 100,000- 999599 S $ $ s $ 597 $ 1049 S 1578 $ 1959 $ 2287 S 2799 $ 2977 $ 3104 $ 3195 S 3258 $ 3300 $ 3325 $ 3337 S 3337 $ 3329 $ 3314 $ 3246 $ 321 2 >1, 000,000 $ $ $ s $ 199 $ 499 $ 1322 $ 164 1 $ 191 5 $ 2344 $ 2493 $ 2599 $ 2675 $ 272 B $ 2785 $ 2794 $ 2795 $ 2788 $ 2775 $ 271 8 $ 2690 Total $ S $ $ $ 574 S 1444 $ 2539 $ 3822 S 5744 $ 7106 $ 7588 S 7942 $ 8198 $ 8377 $ 857 1 $ 861 5 $ 8599 S 8563 $ 8391 $ 8306 $ 762.8 Smoking <100 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 00 $ 00 $ 00 $ 00 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 100-499 $ $ S $ $ 0 1 $ 02 $ 03 S 04 $ 07 $ 08 S 08 $ 09 $ 09 $ 1 0 S 1 0 $ 1 1 $ 1 1 S 1 1 $ 1 1 $ 1 1 $ 1 1 $ 1 1 500-999 $ $ $ S $ 0 1 $ 02 $ 04 $ 05 $ 09 $ 1 0 $ 1 1 $ 1 2 $ 1 2 $ 1 3 $ 1 3 $ 1 4 $ 1 5 $ 1 5 $ 1 5 $ 1 5 $ 1 5 $ 1 5 1,000-3,299 $ $ $ $ 04 S 1 0 $ 1 7 $ 25 S 42 $ 47 $ 5 1 $ 55 S 58 $ 6 1 $ 63 $ 67 $ 68 $ 69 $ 70 S 7 1 $ 7 1 $ 7 1 /Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model 3,300-9,999 $ $ $ $ 1 1 $ 25 $ 42 $ 60 $ 80 $ 102 $ 125 $ 134 $ 14 1 $ 148 $ 154 $ 162 $ 166 $ 169 $ 17 1 $ 173 $ 172 $ 173 10,000-49,999 $ $ $ $ 140 $ 232 $ 333 $ 442 $ 530 $ 631 $ 669 $ 701 $ 729 $ 752 $ 801 $ 81 3 $ 822 $ 829 $ B22 $ 82^ 50,000-99,999 $ $ $ 196 $ 350 S 392 $ 455 $ 479 S 499 $ 51 7 $ 531 $ 554 $ 563 $ 569 $ 575 S 579 $ 574 $ 575 100,000- 999,999 $ $ S 51 8 $ 1233 S 1579 $ 1809 $ 1897 S 1973 $ 2037 $ 2092 $ 2176 $ 2207 $ 2232 $ 2252 S 2267 $ 2246 $ 2247_ >1, 000,000 s $ s S 434 $ 71 9 $ 1034 S 1323 $ 151 6 $ 1590 S 1653 $ 1707 $ 1752 S 1822 $ 1849 $ 1870 $ 1886 S 1899 $ 1881 $ 1SS1 Total $ $ $ S 1250 $ 2070 $ 2976 S 3983 $ 4607 $ 4846 S 5049 $ 5222 $ 5368 $ 5595 $ 5680 $ 5749 $ 5804 S 5846 $ 5793 $ 5798 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model <100 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 00 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 02 $ 02 $ 02 $ 02 $ 02 $ 02 $ 02 $ 02 $ 02 $ 02 $ 02 $ 02 $ 02 100-499 S $ $ s $ 04 $ 06 S 09 $ 1 5 $ 18 $ 18 $ 1 9 $ 1 9 S 1 9 $ 1 9 $ 1 9 S 1 9 $ 1 9 $ 1 9 $ 1 a $ — ^ 500-999 $ $ $ $ S 05 $ 08 $ 1 2 S 1 9 $ 23 $ 24 S 25 $ 25 $ 25 $ 26 $ 25 $ 25 $ 25 S 25 $ 24 $ 24 1,000-3,299 S $ $ s $ 22 $ 38 S 54 $ 9 1 S 108 $ 113 $ 116 $ 118 S 119 $ 120 S 118 $ 117 $ 116 $ 113 $ 111 3,300-9,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 91 $ 133 $ 22 1 $ 264 $ 276 $ 284 $ 289 $ 29 1 $ 292 $ 289 $ 286 $ 283 $ 276 $ 272 10,000- 49,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 481 $ 694 $ 1092 $ 1263 $ 131 0 $ 134 1 $ 1360 $ 1370 $ 1370 $ 1364 $ 1354 $ 1342 $ 1328 $ 1294 $ 1274 50,000-99,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 406 $ 585 « =,= $ 902 $ 927 $ 943 $ 952 $ 956 $ 947 $ 939 $ 930 $ 91 9 $ 895 J 88^ 100,000- 999,999 S $ $ $ s $ 1776 $ 2558 S 3243 $ 3563 $ 3649 S 3702 $ 3730 $ 3739 $ 3692 $ 3659 $ 3622 S 3580 $ 3486 $ 3430 > 1,000,000 $ $ s $ $ $ 1487 $ 2142 S 271 6 $ 2983 $ 3055 S 3099 $ 3123 $ 313 1 $ 309 1 $ 3064 $ 3033 S 2998 $ 291 9 $ 2872 Total S $ $ $ S $ 1076 $ 4294 $ 6187 S 8206 $ 9127 $ 9375 S 9532 $ 961 9 $ 9654 $ 9550 $ 9471 $ 9376 S 9271 $ 9028 Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.3ac Mean Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Bronchitis (All Systems) s Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 7% Discount Rate, by System Size TTHM - Preferred Alternative Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Year 2005 2007 2009 2010 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2027 2029 Total Ann. <100 $ - $ - $ - $ 00 $ 00 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 0.1 101-500 $ $ $ $ 0 1 S 02 $ 04 S 07 $ OB S 09 $ 09 $ 09 $ 00 $ OB $ OB S 07 $ 07 501 -1K $ $ $ $ 0 1 $ 02 $ 05 $ 09 $ 1 1 $ 1 2 $ 1 2 $ 1 1 $ 1 1 $ 1 1 $ 1 1 $ 1 0 $ 09 1,001-3,3K $ $ $ $ 04 $ 1 0 $ 25 $ 42 $ 5 1 $ 55 $ 55 $ 54 $ 52 $ 5 1 $ 49 « 4 = $ 4 1 3,301-1 OK S $ s $ 1 0 S 25 $ 62 S 103 $ 125 S 134 $ 133 S 131 $ 12B $ 124 $ 120 S 11 1 $ 100 10.001-60K $ $ $ $ 53 $ 129 $ 31 6 $ 507 $ 605 $ 643 $ 639 $ 627 $ 61 1 $ 592 $ 572 $ 52 B $ 476 50,001 -100K $ $ $ $ 45 $ 109 $ 266 « 3=4 $ 442 $ 460 $ 45 1 $ 440 $ 42 B $ 414 $ 399 $ 367 $ 330 100,001 -1M $ $ $ $ 196 $ 475 « ,, = 4 $ 1563 $ 1772 $ 1B21 $ 1771 $ 1727 $ 1675 $ 161 B $ 155B $ 1433 « ,2=7 >1M $ $ $ $ 164 S 397 $ 974 S 1309 « ,4=4 S 1525 $ 14B3 S 1446 $ 1403 $ 1355 $ 1304 S 1200 $ 107B Total $ S $ $ 475 S 1149 « 2=,= S 3924 $ 449 B S 4659 $ 4553 $ 4446 S 431 7 $ 4174 $ 4021 S 3703 $ 3329 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model <100 S - $ - s - $ 00 $ 00 S 00 $ 0 1 S 0 1 $ 0 1 S 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 S 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 101-500 $ s $ $ 01 $ 0 1 S 03 $ 05 S 05 $ 06 S 06 $ 05 $ 05 $ 05 S 05 $ 05 $ 05 501 -1K $ $ $ $ 01 $ 02 $ 04 $ 06 $ 07 $ 07 $ 07 $ 07 $ 07 $ 07 $ 07 $ 07 $ 06 1,001-3,3K $ $ $ $ 04 S OB « ,= S 29 $ 32 S 34 $ 34 $ 34 $ 34 $ 33 $ 32 S 3 1 « 2 = 3.301-10K $ S $ $ 09 S 20 $ 44 S 69 $ 79 S S3 $ S3 $ 83 S B2 $ BO $ 79 S 75 $ 69 10.001-60K $ $ $ $ 50 S 11 1 $ 246 $ 362 $ 400 $ 41 1 $ 409 $ 404 $ 397 $ 389 $ 379 $ 358 $ 330 50,001 -100K $ $ $ $ 43 S 94 $ 208 $ 268 $ 288 $ 293 $ 289 $ 284 $ 279 $ 273 $ 266 $ 250 $ 230 100,001 -1M $ $ $ $ 186 S 412 $ 909 $ 1078 $ 1145 $ 1157 $ 1137 $ 1118 $ 1096 $ 1070 $ 1042 « ==, $ 900 >1M $ $ $ $ 156 $ 346 $ 762 S 904 $ 959 S 970 $ 952 $ 937 $ 91 8 $ 896 $ 873 S 82 1 $ 754 Total S $ S $ 449 $ 994 S 2194 $ 272 1 S 291 6 $ 2962 S 291 8 $ 2874 $ 281 8 $ 2754 $ 28= = $ 2528 $ 2324 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model <100 $ - $ - $ - $ 00 S 00 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 101-500 $ $ $ $ 0 1 $ 03 $ 06 S 1 0 $ 1 1 S 1 1 $ 1 1 $ 1 0 $ 1 0 $ 09 $ 09 S 08 $ 07 501 -1K S $ s $ 02 $ 04 S 09 $ 1 3 S 1 5 $ 1 5 S 1 4 $ 1 3 $ 1 3 $ 1 2 S 1 2 $ 1 1 $ 1 0 1,001-3,3K $ $ $ $ 08 $ ,= $ 40 S 62 $ 69 « = = $ 65 S 63 $ 60 $ 58 $ 55 S 50 $ 45 3.301-10K S $ s $ 18 $ 43 S 98 $ 151 S 167 $ 166 S 158 $ 153 $ 147 $ 141 S 135 $ 123 $ 109 10.001-50K $ S $ $ 100 $ 22 = $ 51 1 « 74 = $ BOO « 7=7 $ 745 $ 718 S 690 $ 661 $ 632 S 574 $ 51 1 50,001 -100K S $ s $ 84 S 193 $ 43 1 S 552 $ 57 1 S 553 $ 520 $ 500 $ 480 $ 459 $ 438 S 398 $ 353 100,001 -1M $ $ $ $ 368 $ B42 « ,=== $ 221 6 S 2256 $ 2171 S 2032 $ 1954 $ 1872 $ 1790 S 1708 $ 1548 $ 1375 >1M S $ s $ 308 $ 706 $ 1580 $ 1855 S 1889 S 1702 $ 1636 $ 1568 $ 1499 S 1430 $ 1297 $ 115 1 S 2,943.4 Total $ $ $ $ 889 $ 2037 $ 4562 S 5606 $ 5778 S 559 1 $ 5248 S 5048 $ 4841 $ 463 1 $ 4420 S 401 0 $ 356 1 S 8,961.5 De rived fromExh Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Section F.4 Model Outputs - Preferred Alternative HAAS as Indicator Lymphoma for Non-Fatal Cases ------- ------- Exhibit F.4a Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (All Surface Water Systems) HAAS - Preferred Alternative Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 146.7 $ 379.5 $ 686.6 $ 1,063.7 $ 1,386.8 $ 1,689.8 $ 1,965.0 $ 2,214.9 $ 2,434.4 $ 2,622.1 $ 2,785.0 $ 2,928.4 $ 3,056.7 $ 3,172.8 $ 3,279.0 $ 3,377.1 $ 3,468.5 $ 3,554.4 $ 3,588.4 $ 3,655.8 $ 47,455.7 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 22.5 $ 58.1 $ 105.1 $ 162.8 $ 212.0 $ 258.4 $ 300.2 $ 338.2 $ 371.2 $ 399.4 $ 424.1 $ 445.4 $ 464.8 $ 482.6 $ 498.5 $ 512.6 $ 525.8 $ 538.2 $ 543.8 $ 553.2 $ 7,216.8 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 337.3 $ 872.9 $ 1,577.2 $ 2,443.2 $ 3,188.0 $ 3,886.3 $ 4,519.0 $ 5,098.5 $ 5,608.5 $ 6,051.0 $ 6,429.7 $ 6,761.4 $ 7,069.5 $ 7,339.9 $ 7,588.5 $ 7,816.0 $ 8,034.5 $ 8,245.9 $ 8,320.3 $ 8,484.5 $ 109,672.1 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 141.5 $ 334.6 $ 569.6 $ 841.7 $ 1 ,026.9 $ 1,185.1 $ 1,321.4 $ 1 ,446.9 $ 1 ,564.4 $ 1,675.7 $ 1,781.9 $ 1,883.7 $ 1,981.8 $ 2,076.5 $ 2,168.3 $ 2,257.5 $ 2,344.3 $ 2,428.9 $ 2,479.0 $ 2,552.7 $ 32,062.5 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 21.7 $ 51.2 $ 87.2 $ 128.8 $ 157.0 $ 181.2 $ 201.9 $ 220.9 $ 238.5 $ 255.3 $ 271.3 $ 286.5 $ 301 .4 $ 315.8 $ 329.6 $ 342.7 $ 355.4 $ 367.8 $ 375.7 $ 386.3 $ 4,876.1 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 325.3 $ 769.6 $ 1,308.4 $ 1,933.3 $ 2,360.6 $ 2,725.6 $ 3,038.9 $ 3,330.6 $ 3,604.1 $ 3,867.0 $ 4,113.9 $ 4,349.3 $ 4,583.5 $ 4,803.8 $ 5,018.1 $ 5,224.7 $ 5,430.2 $ 5,634.9 $ 5,748.0 $ 5,924.5 $ 74,094.3 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 277.6 $ 678.0 $ 1,168.7 $ 1,731.0 $ 2,115.5 $ 2,416.3 $ 2,648.7 $ 2,839.4 $ 2,999.9 $ 3,137.7 $ 3,258.0 $ 3,364.6 $ 3,460.4 $ 3,547.5 $ 3,627.7 $ 3,702.3 $ 3,772.3 $ 3,838.7 $ 3,851.5 $ 3,902.2 $ 56,337.8 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 42.5 $ 103.8 $ 178.8 $ 265.0 $ 323.4 $ 369.5 $ 404.6 $ 433.6 $ 457.4 $ 478.0 $ 496.1 $ 511.7 $ 526.2 $ 539.5 $ 551.5 $ 562.0 $ 571.8 $ 581.2 $ 583.7 $ 590.5 $ 8,570.8 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 638.1 $ 1 ,559.6 $ 2,684.8 $ 3,976.0 $ 4,863.1 $ 5,557.2 $ 6,091.2 $ 6,535.9 $ 6,911.1 $ 7,240.8 $ 7,521.8 $ 7,768.5 $ 8,003.1 $ 8,206.6 $ 8,395.3 $ 8,568.5 $ 8,738.1 $ 8,905.5 $ 8,930.3 $ 9,056.5 $ 130,151.9 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.39b, E.39f, and E.39J. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.4b Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (All Ground Water Systems) HAAS - Preferred Alternative Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 9.6 $ 24.9 $ 45.1 $ 69.8 $ 95.2 $ 121.0 $ 142.9 $ 162.5 $ 180.1 $ 195.5 $ 209.0 $ 220.8 $ 231.3 $ 240.7 $ 249.3 $ 257.3 $ 264.6 $ 271.5 $ 274.4 $ 279.8 $ 3,545.3 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.5 $ 3.8 $ 6.9 $ 10.7 $ 14.6 $ 18.5 $ 21.8 $ 24.8 $ 27.5 $ 29.8 $ 31.8 $ 33.6 $ 35.2 $ 36.6 $ 37.9 $ 39.0 $ 40.1 $ 41.1 $ 41.6 $ 42.3 $ 539.1 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ - $ $ 22.0 $ 57.2 $ 103.5 $ 160.3 $ 218.9 $ 278.4 $ 328.6 $ 374.1 $ 414.8 $ 451.2 $ 482.6 $ 509.8 $ 534.9 $ 556.9 $ 577.0 $ 595.4 $ 613.0 $ 629.9 $ 636.3 $ 649.4 $ 8,194.0 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 8.2 $ 19.6 $ 33.7 $ 50.2 $ 65.8 $ 80.7 $ 92.2 $ 102.6 $ 112.3 $ 121.5 $ 130.3 $ 138.7 $ 146.8 $ 154.7 $ 162.3 $ 169.6 $ 176.8 $ 183.8 $ 188.1 $ 194.2 $ 2,332.2 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ - $ $ 1.3 $ 3.0 $ 5.2 $ 7.7 $ 10.1 $ 12.3 $ 14.1 $ 15.7 $ 17.1 $ 18.5 $ 19.8 $ 21.1 $ 22.3 $ 23.5 $ 24.7 $ 25.7 $ 26.8 $ 27.8 $ 28.5 $ 29.4 $ 354.6 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ - $ $ 18.8 $ 45.1 $ 77.4 $ 115.4 $ 151.2 $ 185.7 $ 211.9 $ 236.1 $ 258.7 $ 280.4 $ 300.8 $ 320.3 $ 339.6 $ 357.8 $ 375.5 $ 392.6 $ 409.5 $ 426.3 $ 436.2 $ 450.8 $ 5,390.4 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 17.1 $ 42.4 $ 73.9 $ 110.3 $ 144.0 $ 174.8 $ 196.6 $ 214.0 $ 228.3 $ 240.4 $ 250.8 $ 259.8 $ 267.8 $ 275.0 $ 281.5 $ 287.4 $ 293.0 $ 298.2 $ 299.2 $ 303.1 $ 4,257.7 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ - $ $ 2.6 $ 6.5 $ 11.3 $ 16.9 $ 22.0 $ 26.7 $ 30.0 $ 32.7 $ 34.8 $ 36.6 $ 38.2 $ 39.5 $ 40.7 $ 41.8 $ 42.8 $ 43.6 $ 44.4 $ 45.1 $ 45.3 $ 45.9 $ 647.6 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ - $ $ 39.3 $ 97.6 $ 169.8 $ 253.3 $ 331.0 $ 402.1 $ 452.0 $ 492.5 $ 526.0 $ 554.9 $ 579.1 $ 600.0 $ 619.4 $ 636.1 $ 651.4 $ 665.3 $ 678.7 $ 691.8 $ 693.7 $ 703.5 $ 9,837.4 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.39c, E.39g, and E.39k. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.4c Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (All Water Systems) HAAS - Preferred Alternative Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 156.3 $ 404.4 $ 731.6 $ 1,133.4 $ 1,482.1 $ 1,810.9 $ 2,107.9 $ 2,377.4 $ 2,614.5 $ 2,817.6 $ 2,994.0 $ 3,149.2 $ 3,288.0 $ 3,413.5 $ 3,528.4 $ 3,634.4 $ 3,733.2 $ 3,825.9 $ 3,862.8 $ 3,935.6 $ 51,001.0 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 23.9 $ 61.9 $ 112.0 $ 173.5 $ 226.6 $ 276.9 $ 322.0 $ 363.0 $ 398.7 $ 429.2 $ 455.9 $ 479.0 $ 500.0 $ 519.2 $ 536.4 $ 551.7 $ 565.9 $ 579.3 $ 585.4 $ 595.6 $ 7,755.8 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 359.3 $ 930.1 $ 1,680.7 $ 2,603.4 $ 3,407.0 $ 4,164.7 $ 4,847.7 $ 5,472.6 $ 6,023.4 $ 6,502.2 $ 6,912.3 $ 7,271.2 $ 7,604.4 $ 7,896.7 $ 8,165.5 $ 8,411.4 $ 8,647.4 $ 8,875.8 $ 8,956.5 $ 9,133.9 $ 117,866.1 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 149.7 $ 354.2 $ 603.3 $ 891.9 $ 1,092.7 $ 1,265.9 $ 1,413.6 $ 1,549.5 $ 1,676.7 $ 1,797.2 $ 1,912.2 $ 2,022.5 $ 2,128.6 $ 2,231.2 $ 2,330.6 $ 2,427.1 $ 2,521.1 $ 2,612.7 $ 2,667.2 $ 2,747.0 $ 34,394.6 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 22.9 $ 54.2 $ 92.3 $ 136.5 $ 167.0 $ 193.6 $ 215.9 $ 236.6 $ 255.7 $ 273.8 $ 291.2 $ 307.6 $ 323.7 $ 339.4 $ 354.3 $ 368.4 $ 382.2 $ 395.6 $ 404.2 $ 415.7 $ 5,230.7 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 344.1 $ 814.7 $ 1,385.9 $ 2,048.6 $ 2,511.8 $ 2,911.3 $ 3,250.8 $ 3,566.7 $ 3,862.8 $ 4,147.5 $ 4,414.8 $ 4,669.6 $ 4,923.1 $ 5,161.6 $ 5,393.6 $ 5,617.3 $ 5,839.7 $ 6,061.3 $ 6,184.2 $ 6,375.3 $ 79,484.7 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 294.7 $ 720.5 $ 1,242.6 $ 1,841.3 $ 2,259.5 $ 2,591.2 $ 2,845.2 $ 3,053.3 $ 3,228.2 $ 3,378.1 $ 3,508.8 $ 3,624.4 $ 3,728.2 $ 3,822.5 $ 3,909.2 $ 3,989.7 $ 4,065.3 $ 4,136.9 $ 4,150.7 $ 4,205.3 $ 60,595.5 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 45.1 $ 110.3 $ 190.2 $ 281.8 $ 345.4 $ 396.2 $ 434.6 $ 466.2 $ 492.2 $ 514.6 $ 534.3 $ 551.3 $ 566.9 $ 581.4 $ 594.3 $ 605.6 $ 616.2 $ 626.4 $ 629.0 $ 636.4 $ 9,218.4 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 677.4 $ 1,657.1 $ 2,854.5 $ 4,229.3 $ 5,194.1 $ 5,959.2 $ 6,543.2 $ 7,028.4 $ 7,437.2 $ 7,795.6 $ 8,100.8 $ 8,368.4 $ 8,622.5 $ 8,842.8 $ 9,046.7 $ 9,233.7 $ 9,416.8 $ 9,597.3 $ 9,624.0 $ 9,760.0 $ 139,989.3 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.4a and F.4b. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.4d Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 3% Discount Rate (All Water Systems) HAAS - Preferred Alternative Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Ann. Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 134.8 $ 338.7 $ 594.9 $ 894.7 $ 1,135.9 $ 1,347.5 $ 1,522.8 $ 1,667.5 $ 1,780.4 $ 1,862.8 $ 1,921.7 $ 1,962.5 $ 1,989.3 $ 2,005.1 $ 2,012.2 $ 2,012.3 $ 2,006.8 $ 1,996.7 $ 1,957.3 $ 1,936.0 $ 31,079.6 $ 1,784.8 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tlle) $ $ $ $ $ $ 20.6 $ 51.9 $ 91.0 $ 137.0 $ 173.7 $ 206.0 $ 232.6 $ 254.6 $ 271.5 $ 283.8 $ 292.6 $ 298.5 $ 302.5 $ 305.0 $ 305.9 $ 305.4 $ 304.2 $ 302.3 $ 296.6 $ 293.0 $ 4,728.6 $ 271.6 Upper (95th %tlle) $ $ $ $ $ $ 310.0 $ 779.0 $ 1,366.6 $ 2,055.2 $ 2,611.1 $ 3,098.9 $ 3,502.1 $ 3,838.4 $ 4,101.6 $ 4,298.7 $ 4,436.7 $ 4,531.2 $ 4,600.8 $ 4,638.5 $ 4,656.7 $ 4,657.2 $ 4,648.4 $ 4,632.2 $ 4,538.2 $ 4,493.3 $ 71 ,794.6 $ 4,123.0 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 129.1 $ 296.6 $ 490.5 $ 704.1 $ 837.4 $ 941.9 $ 1,021.2 $ 1,086.8 $ 1,141.8 $ 1,188.2 $ 1,227.4 $ 1,260.3 $ 1,287.9 $ 1,310.6 $ 1,329.1 $ 1,343.8 $ 1,355.2 $ 1,363.5 $ 1,351.4 $ 1,351.3 $ 21,018.2 $ 1,207.0 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tlle) $ $ $ $ $ $ 19.8 $ 45.4 $ 75.1 $ 107.8 $ 128.0 $ 144.0 $ 156.0 $ 165.9 $ 174.1 $ 181.0 $ 186.9 $ 191.7 $ 195.8 $ 199.3 $ 202.0 $ 204.0 $ 205.4 $ 206.5 $ 204.8 $ 204.5 $ 3,198.1 $ 183.7 Upper (95th %tlle) $ $ $ $ $ $ 296.8 $ 682.3 $ 1,126.8 $ 1,617.2 $ 1,925.1 $ 2,166.3 $ 2,348.5 $ 2,501.6 $ 2,630.4 $ 2,742.0 $ 2,833.7 $ 2,910.0 $ 2,978.5 $ 3,031.9 $ 3,075.9 $ 3,110.2 $ 3,139.2 $ 3,163.3 $ 3,133.5 $ 3,136.2 $ 48,549.3 $ 2,788.1 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 254.2 $ 603.4 $ 1,010.3 $ 1,453.5 $ 1,731.7 $ 1,928.1 $ 2,055.4 $ 2,141.5 $ 2,198.2 $ 2,233.3 $ 2,252.2 $ 2,258.6 $ 2,255.6 $ 2,245.3 $ 2,229.3 $ 2,209.0 $ 2,185.3 $ 2,159.0 $ 2,103.1 $ 2,068.7 $ 37,576.0 $ 2,157.9 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tlle) $ $ $ $ $ $ 38.9 $ 92.4 $ 154.6 $ 222.5 $ 264.7 $ 294.8 $ 314.0 $ 327.0 $ 335.2 $ 340.2 $ 342.9 $ 343.5 $ 343.0 $ 341.5 $ 338.9 $ 335.3 $ 331.3 $ 326.9 $ 318.7 $ 313.1 $ 5,719.4 $ 328.5 Upper (95th %tlle) $ $ $ $ $ $ 584.3 $ 1,387.8 $ 2,321.0 $ 3,338.7 $ 3,980.9 $ 4,434.2 $ 4,726.9 $ 4,929.6 $ 5,064.4 $ 5,153.8 $ 5,199.6 $ 5,214.9 $ 5,216.8 $ 5,194.2 $ 5,159.2 $ 5,112.5 $ 5,062.0 $ 5,008.8 $ 4,876.4 $ 4,801.3 $ 86,767.3 $ 4,982.9 Notes: Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005. Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibit F.4c. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.4e Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 7% Discount Rate (All Water Systems) HAAS - Preferred Alternative Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Ann. Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 111.5 $ 269.5 $ 455.6 $ 659.7 $ 806.1 $ 920.6 $ 1,001.5 $ 1,055.6 $ 1,084.9 $ 1,092.7 $ 1,085.2 $ 1,066.7 $ 1,040.9 $ 1,009.9 $ 975.6 $ 939.2 $ 901.6 $ 863.6 $ 814.8 $ 775.9 $ 16,931.0 $ 1,452.9 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 17.1 $ 41.3 $ 69.7 $ 101.0 $ 123.2 $ 140.8 $ 153.0 $ 161.2 $ 165.4 $ 166.5 $ 165.2 $ 162.2 $ 158.3 $ 153.6 $ 148.3 $ 142.6 $ 136.7 $ 130.7 $ 123.5 $ 117.4 $ 2,577.6 $ 221.2 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 256.2 $ 619.8 $ 1,046.7 $ 1,515.2 $ 1,853.2 $ 2,117.1 $ 2,303.1 $ 2,429.9 $ 2,499.5 $ 2,521.6 $ 2,505.3 $ 2,463.0 $ 2,407.3 $ 2,336.4 $ 2,257.8 $ 2,173.7 $ 2,088.5 $ 2,003.4 $ 1,889.3 $ 1,800.7 $ 39,087.7 $ 3,354.1 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 106.7 $ 236.0 $ 375.7 $ 519.1 $ 594.3 $ 643.5 $ 671.6 $ 688.0 $ 695.8 $ 697.0 $ 693.1 $ 685.1 $ 673.9 $ 660.1 $ 644.4 $ 627.2 $ 608.9 $ 589.7 $ 562.6 $ 541.6 $ 11,514.3 $ 988.0 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 16.3 $ 36.1 $ 57.5 $ 79.5 $ 90.9 $ 98.4 $ 102.6 $ 105.1 $ 106.1 $ 106.2 $ 105.5 $ 104.2 $ 102.5 $ 100.4 $ 98.0 $ 95.2 $ 92.3 $ 89.3 $ 85.3 $ 82.0 $ 1,753.2 $ 150.4 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 245.3 $ 542.8 $ 863.0 $ 1,192.3 $ 1,366.3 $ 1,479.9 $ 1,544.4 $ 1,583.6 $ 1,602.9 $ 1,608.5 $ 1,600.1 $ 1,581.8 $ 1,558.5 $ 1,527.1 $ 1,491.4 $ 1,451.6 $ 1,410.4 $ 1,368.1 $ 1,304.5 $ 1,256.9 $ 26,579.7 $ 2,280.8 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 210.1 $ 480.1 $ 773.8 $ 1,071.6 $ 1,229.0 $ 1,317.2 $ 1,351.7 $ 1,355.7 $ 1,339.6 $ 1,310.1 $ 1,271.7 $ 1,227.7 $ 1,180.2 $ 1,130.9 $ 1,080.9 $ 1,031.0 $ 981.8 $ 933.7 $ 875.6 $ 829.1 $ 20,981.8 $ 1,800.5 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 32.2 $ 73.5 $ 118.4 $ 164.0 $ 187.9 $ 201.4 $ 206.5 $ 207.0 $ 204.3 $ 199.6 $ 193.6 $ 186.7 $ 179.5 $ 172.0 $ 164.3 $ 156.5 $ 148.8 $ 141.4 $ 132.7 $ 125.5 $ 3,195.8 $ 274.2 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 483.0 $ 1,104.2 $ 1,777.7 $ 2,461.5 $ 2,825.3 $ 3,029.4 $ 3,108.6 $ 3,120.7 $ 3,086.2 $ 3,023.3 $ 2,936.1 $ 2,834.7 $ 2,729.7 $ 2,616.3 $ 2,501.5 $ 2,386.2 $ 2,274.3 $ 2,166.2 $ 2,030.2 $ 1,924.1 $ 48,419.0 $ 4,154.9 Notes: Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005. Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibit F.4c. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.4f Mean Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 3% Discount Rate, by System Size (All Systems) HAAS - Preferred Alternative Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Total <100 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 00 $ 02 $ 03 $ 04 $ 05 $ 06 $ 07 $ 07 $ 08 $ OS $ 08 $ OS $ 08 $ 09 $ 09 $ 09 $ 09 $ OS $ 12.7 100-499 $ - $ - $ 03 $ 1 5 $ 22 $ 30 $ 39 $ 46 $ 5 1 $ 55 $ 59 $ 62 $ 63 $ 65 $ 65 $ 66 $ 66 $ 66 $ 66 $ 65 $ 97.6 500-999 $ - $ - $ 04 $ 1 8 $ 26 $ 36 $ 47 $ 55 $ 62 $ 67 $ 7 1 $ 74 $ 76 $ 78 $ 79 $ 80 $ 80 $ 80 $ 80 $ 78 $ 117.8 1 ,OX-3,299 $ $ $ 1 6 $ 7 1 $ 107 $ 147 $ 19 1 $ 223 $ 249 $ 270 $ 287 $ 300 $ 309 $ 31 5 $ 320 $ 322 $ 323 $ 323 $ 322 $ 31 6 $ 476.5 3,300-9,999 $ $ $ 35 $ 155 $ 233 $ 322 $ 41 8 $ 488 $ 546 $ 592 $ 630 $ 658 $ 678 $ 69 1 $ 700 $ 706 $ 708 $ 708 $ 706 $ 693 $ 1,044.1 10,XO- 49,999 $ $ $ 157 $ 693 $ 1042 $ 1438 $ 1802 $ 2084 $ 231 7 $ 2508 $ 2658 $ 2767 $ 2844 $ 2896 $ 2929 $ 2947 $ 2954 $ 295 1 $ 2940 $ 2885 S 4,406.3 50,XO- 99,999 $ $ $ 128 $ 564 $ 848 $ 111 1 $ 131 8 $ 1492 $ 1637 $ 1752 $ 1837 $ 1896 $ 1938 $ 1965 $ 198 1 $ 1989 $ 1990 $ 1984 $ 1975 $ 1936 $ 3,057.7 100,OX- $ $ $ 552 $ 2432 $ 3659 $ 4539 $ 5298 $ 5945 $ 6478 $ 6887 $ 7176 $ 7380 $ 752 1 $ 761 2 $ 7663 $ 7683 $ 7678 $ 7652 $ 761 0 $ 7457 $ 11,998.0 >1 ,XO,XO $ $ $ 454 $ 2000 $ 3008 $ 3732 $ 4357 $ 4889 $ 5329 $ 5665 $ 5903 $ 607 1 $ 6187 $ 6262 $ 6304 $ 6320 $ 631 6 $ 6295 $ 6260 $ 6134 S 9,869.0 Total $ $ $ 1348 $ 5949 $ 8947 $ 1,1359 $ 1,3475 $ 1,5228 $ 1,6675 $ 1,7804 $ 1,8628 $ 1,921 7 $ 1,9625 $ 1,9893 $ 2,005 1 $ 2,0122 $ 2,0123 $ 2,0068 $ 1,9967 $ 1,9573 $31,079.6 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model <1X $ - $ - $ 00 $ 0 1 $ 02 $ 03 $ 03 $ 04 $ 04 $ 05 $ 05 $ 05 $ 05 $ 05 $ 05 $ 06 $ 06 $ 06 $ 06 $ 06 $ 8.3 100499 $ $ $ 03 $ 1 1 $ 1 6 $ 2 1 $ 27 $ 30 $ 32 $ 35 $ 37 $ 38 $ 40 $ 4 1 $ 42 $ 43 $ 43 $ 44 $ 44 $ 44 S 64.1 500-999 $ $ $ 03 $ 1 3 $ 1 9 $ 25 $ 32 $ 36 $ 39 $ 42 $ 44 $ 46 $ 48 $ 49 $ 5 1 $ 52 $ 52 $ 53 $ 54 $ 53 $ 77.4 1,XO-3,299 $ $ $ 1 4 $ 53 $ 77 $ 102 $ 129 $ 145 $ 159 $ 170 $ 179 $ 187 $ 194 $ 200 $ 204 $ 209 $ 21 2 $ 21 5 $ 21 7 $ 21 6 $ 312.8 3,300- 9,999 $ $ $ 30 $ 116 $ 168 $ 224 $ 283 $ 31 9 $ 348 $ 372 $ 392 $ 41 0 $ 425 $ 437 $ 448 $ 457 $ 464 $ 470 $ 475 $ 473 S 685.5 10,XO- 49,999 $ $ $ 150 $ 569 $ 81 7 $ 1082 $ 1294 $ 1428 $ 1537 $ 1628 $ 1704 $ 1768 $ 1822 $ 1867 $ 1905 $ 1936 $ 196 1 $ 1980 $ 1995 $ 1980 $ 2,974.9 50,XO- 99,999 $ $ $ 123 $ 466 $ 668 $ 829 $ 927 $ 1006 $ 1072 $ 1127 $ 1173 $ 121 2 $ 1245 $ 1272 $ 1295 $ 131 3 $ 1328 $ 1339 $ 1348 $ 1336 $ 2,069.8 100,OX- $ $ $ 53 1 $ 201 4 $ 2890 $ 3337 $ 3686 $ 397 1 $ 4209 $ 4409 $ 4578 $ 472 1 $ 484 1 $ 4940 $ 5022 $ 5089 $ 514 1 $ 518 1 $ 521 0 $ 516 1 $ 8,130.9 >1 ,XO,XO $ $ $ 438 $ 1662 $ 2384 $ 275 1 $ 3038 $ 3272 $ 3467 $ 363 1 $ 3770 $ 3887 $ 3985 $ 4066 $ 4133 $ 4188 $ 4230 $ 4263 $ 4286 $ 4246 S 6,694.5 Total $ $ $ 129 1 $ 4905 $ 704 1 $ 8374 $ 941 9 $ 1,021 2 $ 1,0868 $ 1,141 8 $ 1,1882 $ 1,2274 $ 1,2603 $ 1,2879 $ 1,3106 $ 1,3291 $ 1,3438 $ 1,3552 $ 1,3635 $ 1,3514 $21,018.2 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model <1X $ - $ - $ 0 1 $ 03 $ 04 $ 06 $ 07 $ 08 $ 09 $ 09 $ 1 0 $ 1 0 $ 1 0 $ 1 0 $ 1 0 $ 1 0 $ 1 0 $ 1 0 $ 09 $ 09 $ 15.5 100499 $ $ $ 06 $ 24 $ 34 $ 46 $ 57 $ 64 $ 68 $ 7 1 $ 73 $ 74 $ 75 $ 75 $ 75 $ 75 $ 74 $ 74 $ 73 $ 7 1 $ 119.4 500-999 $ $ $ 07 $ 29 $ 42 $ 55 $ 69 $ 77 $ 82 $ 86 $ 88 $ 90 $ 9 1 $ 9 1 $ 9 1 $ 90 $ 90 $ 89 $ 88 « 86 $ 144.1 1,XO-3,299 $ $ $ 29 $ 116 $ 168 $ 223 $ 280 $ 31 2 $ 334 $ 348 $ 358 $ 364 $ 367 $ 368 $ 367 $ 365 $ 362 $ 359 $ 355 $ 346 S 582.9 3,300- 9,999 $ $ $ 63 $ 255 $ 369 $ 489 $ 614 $ 684 $ 73 1 $ 763 $ 784 $ 797 $ 803 $ 806 $ 804 $ 800 $ 794 $ 786 $ 778 $ 758 $ 1,277.2 10,XO- 49,999 $ $ $ 295 $ 1175 $ 169 1 $ 2232 $ 2654 $ 2899 $ 3065 $ 3175 $ 3247 $ 3290 $ 331 1 $ 331 5 $ 3306 $ 3288 $ 3262 $ 3230 $ 3193 $ 311 3 $ 5,350.5 50,XO- 99,999 $ $ $ 24 1 $ 958 $ 1378 $ 1707 $ 1897 $ 2025 $ 112 $ 169 $ 205 $ 225 $ 232 $ 229 $ 21 9 $ 204 $ 184 $ 16 1 $ 135 $ 080 $ 3,698.1 100,OX- $ $ $ 1042 $ 4138 $ 595 1 $ 6890 $ 751 8 $ 7948 $ 8239 $ 8429 $ 8544 $ 860 1 $ 861 5 $ 8596 $ 8550 $ 8485 $ 8404 $ 831 1 $ 8209 $ 7995 $ 14,480.2 >1 ,XO,XO $ $ $ 859 $ 2036 $ 3406 $ 4898 $ 5668 $ 6184 $ 6537 $ 6775 $ 693 1 $ 7025 $ 7072 $ 7083 $ 7067 $ 7030 $ 6976 $ 691 0 $ 6834 $ 6750 $ 6574 $11,908.1 Total $ $ $ 2542 $ 6034 $ 1,0103 $ 1,4535 $ 1,7317 $ 1 ,928 1 $ 2,0554 $ 2,141 5 $ 2,1982 $ 2,2333 $ 2,2522 $ 2,2586 $ 2,2556 $ 2,2453 $ 2,2293 $ 2,2090 $ 2,1853 $ 2,1590 $ 2,1031 $ 37,576.0 ues in millions of 2003 dollars Estimates are discounted to 20 le of total annualized at discount rate Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding Derived from Exhibits F 1f, E 39b, E 39c, E 39f, E 39g, E 39j, and E 39k Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.4g Mean Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 7% Discount Rate, by System Size (All Systems) HAAS - Preferred Alternative Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2011 2013 2014 2015 2017 2018 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Ann. <1X $ - $ - $ 02 $ 03 $ 04 $ 04 $ $ $ 04 $ $ $ $ 03 $ 03 S 6.8 100-499 $ $ $ $ 1 6 $ 27 $ 32 $ 34 $ $ $ $ 33 $ $ $ $ 27 $ 26 $ 52.5 500-999 $ $ $ $ 1 9 $ 32 $ 39 $ 41 $ $ 40 $ $ $ $ 33 $ 31 S 63.4 1,XO-3,299 $ $ $ $ 79 $ 130 $ 158 $ 165 $ $ $ $ 16 1 $ $ $ $ 132 $ 126 $ 256.2 3,3X-9,999 $ $ $ 172 $ 286 $ 345 $ 361 $ $ $ $ 353 $ $ $ $ 289 $ 275 S 561.4 10,XO- 49,999 $ $ $ $ 768 $ 123 1 $ 1467 $ 1528 $ $ $ $ 1475 $ $ $ $ 120 1 S 1145 $ 2,376.9 50,000-99,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 625 $ 900 $ 1036 $ 1068 $ $ $ $ 998 $ $ $ $ 806 $ 768 $ 1 ,663.2 100,OX- 999,999 $ $ $ « 2,97 $ 3620 $ 410 1 $ 4197 $ $ $ $ 3860 $ $ $ 3104 $ 2955 $ 6,557.2 >1 ,XO,XO $ $ $ $ 221 8 $ 2976 $ 3373 $ 3452 $ $ $ $ 3175 $ $ $ $ 2554 $ 2431 $ 5,393.5 Total $ $ $ $ 6597 $ 9206 $ 1,0556 $ 1,0849 $ , $ , $ , $ 1,0099 $ $ $ $ 8148 $ 7759 $16,931.0 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model <100 $ - $ - $ 02 $ 02 $ 03 $ 03 $ 03 $ 02 S 4.5 100499 $ $ $ 1 2 $ 1 8 $ 1 $ 1 $ 1 $ $ 1 8 $ 1 8 S 34.5 500-999 $ $ $ $ 1 4 $ 22 $ 25 $ 26 $ $ $ $ 25 $ $ $ $ 22 $ 21 S 41.6 1 ,OX-3,299 $ $ $ $ 57 $ 88 $ 100 $ 103 $ $ $ $ 103 $ $ $ $ 90 $ 87 S 168.4 3,300-9,999 $ $ $ $ 124 $ 194 $ 20 $ 26 $ $ $ $ 26 $ $ $ $ 197 $ 190 S 369.0 10,XO- 49,999 $ $ $ $ 602 $ 884 $ 973 $ 992 $ $ $ $ 959 $ $ $ $ 824 $ 794 $ 1,614.2 50,000-99,999 $ $ $ $ 493 $ 634 $ 679 $ 687 $ $ $ $ 652 $ $ $ $ 556 $ 535 $ 1,132.4 100,OX- 999,999 $ $ $ $ $ 213 1 $ 251 8 $ 2665 $ 2687 $ $ $ $ 2530 $ $ $ $ 2149 $ 2067 S 4,469.3 >1 ,XO,XO $ $ $ $ $ 1758 $ 2075 $ 2195 $ 221 3 $ $ $ $ 2082 $ $ $ $ 1768 $ 1700 $ 3,680.3 Total $ $ $ $ $ 519 1 $ 6435 « 6880 $ 6958 $ $ $ $ 660 1 $ $ $ 5626 $ 541 6 $11,514.3 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model <1X $ $ 03 $ 05 $ 06 $ 06 $ $ 05 $ 04 S 8.5 100499 $ $ 25 $ 39 $ 43 $ 43 $ $ $ 38 $ $ $ $ 29 $ 28 S 65.6 500-999 $ $ 3 1 $ 47 $ 52 $ $ $ 46 $ $ $ 36 S 34 $ 79.2 1,XO-3,299 $ $ 124 $ 19 1 $ 21 1 $ 21 2 $ $ $ $ 185 $ $ $ $ 144 $ 136 $ 320.2 3,300- 9,999 $ $ 272 $ 41 9 $ 463 $ 465 $ $ $ $ 405 $ $ $ $ 31 5 $ 299 $ 701.8 10,XO- 49,999 $ $ 1246 $ 181 3 $ 1940 $ 1935 $ $ $ $ 1665 $ $ $ $ 1296 $ 1228 $ 2,956.1 50,XO- 99,999 $ $ 101 6 $ 1296 $ 1337 $ 1322 $ $ $ $ 111 8 $ $ $ $ 820 $ 2,061.8 100,OX- 999,999 $ $ 4388 $ 5136 $ 521 6 $ 5137 $ $ $ $ 4307 $ $ $ $ 3329 $ 3151 $ 8,114.8 >1 ,XO,XO $ $ $ $ $ 2609 $ 361 1 $ 4225 $ 4289 $ 4224 $ 412 1 $ $ 3698 $ 354 1 $ $ $ $ 2737 $ 6,673.7 Total $ $ $ $ $ 7738 $ 1,0716 $ 1,3172 $ 1,3557 $ 1,3396 $ 1,3101 $ , $ 1,1802 $ 1,1309 $ , $ , $ $ 8756 $ 8291 $ 20,981 .8 n millions of 2003 dollars Estimates are discoi. total annualized at discount rate idd exactly to totals due to independent roundim (hibits F 1f, E 39b, E 39c, E 39f, E 39g, E 39j, e Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Section F.5 Model Outputs - Preferred Alternative HAAS as Indicator Bronchitis for Non-Fatal Cases ------- ------- Exhibit F.5a Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (All Surface Water Systems) HAAS - Preferred Alternative Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 72.5 $ 187.6 $ 339.6 $ 526.6 $ 687.0 $ 837.8 $ 975.0 $ 1,099.8 $ 1,209.7 $ 1,304.0 $ 1,386.2 $ 1,458.7 $ 1,523.9 $ 1,583.1 $ 1,637.5 $ 1,687.9 $ 1,735.1 $ 1,779.6 $ 1,796.1 $ 1,831.0 $ 23,658.9 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 16.0 $ 41.3 $ 74.6 $ 115.6 $ 150.6 $ 183.3 $ 213.1 $ 240.1 $ 263.4 $ 283.5 $ 300.9 $ 316.2 $ 329.7 $ 341.6 $ 353.0 $ 363.1 $ 372.8 $ 381.7 $ 385.4 $ 392.4 $ 5,118.1 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 159.4 $ 413.2 $ 747.6 $ 1,158.5 $ 1,512.4 $ 1,847.4 $ 2,149.3 $ 2,428.9 $ 2,672.7 $ 2,887.6 $ 3,071.9 $ 3,236.7 $ 3,388.0 $ 3,520.0 $ 3,642.8 $ 3,757.3 $ 3,863.5 $ 3,972.5 $ 4,005.7 $ 4,090.8 $ 52,526.2 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 69.9 $ 165.4 $ 281.7 $ 416.7 $ 508.7 $ 587.6 $ 655.6 $ 718.4 $ 777.4 $ 833.4 $ 886.9 $ 938.4 $ 988.0 $ 1,036.1 $ 1,082.8 $ 1,128.3 $ 1,172.7 $ 1,216.1 $ 1,240.8 $ 1,278.6 $ 15,983.6 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 15.4 $ 36.4 $ 61.9 $ 91.5 $ 111.5 $ 128.5 $ 143.3 $ 156.8 $ 169.3 $ 181.2 $ 192.5 $ 203.4 $ 213.8 $ 223.6 $ 233.4 $ 242.7 $ 252.0 $ 260.8 $ 266.3 $ 274.0 $ 3,458.2 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 153.7 $ 364.3 $ 620.2 $ 916.7 $ 1,119.9 $ 1,295.6 $ 1,445.3 $ 1,586.7 $ 1,717.5 $ 1,845.4 $ 1,965.5 $ 2,082.0 $ 2,196.6 $ 2,303.8 $ 2,408.9 $ 2,511.6 $ 2,611.2 $ 2,714.6 $ 2,767.3 $ 2,856.5 $ 35,483.4 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 137.1 $ 335.2 $ 578.1 $ 856.9 $ 1,048.0 $ 1,198.0 $ 1,314.2 $ 1,409.9 $ 1,490.7 $ 1,560.4 $ 1,621.6 $ 1,676.0 $ 1,725.2 $ 1,770.1 $ 1,811.6 $ 1,850.5 $ 1,887.1 $ 1,922.0 $ 1,927.8 $ 1,954.5 $ 28,074.7 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 30.2 $ 73.7 $ 127.0 $ 188.1 $ 229.7 $ 262.1 $ 287.2 $ 307.8 $ 324.6 $ 339.2 $ 352.0 $ 363.3 $ 373.2 $ 381.9 $ 390.5 $ 398.1 $ 405.4 $ 412.2 $ 413.7 $ 418.9 $ 6,078.8 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 301.5 $ 738.3 $ 1,272.5 $ 1,885.4 $ 2,307.1 $ 2,641.6 $ 2,897.1 $ 3,113.7 $ 3,293.4 $ 3,455.4 $ 3,593.6 $ 3,718.8 $ 3,835.4 $ 3,935.7 $ 4,030.1 $ 4,119.1 $ 4,201.9 $ 4,290.3 $ 4,299.4 $ 4,366.5 $ 62,296.7 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.39b, E.39f, and E.39J. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.5b Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (All Ground Water Systems) HAAS - Preferred Alternative Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 4.7 $ 12.3 $ 22.3 $ 34.5 $ 47.2 $ 60.0 $ 70.9 $ 80.7 $ 89.5 $ 97.2 $ 104.0 $ 110.0 $ 115.3 $ 120.1 $ 124.5 $ 128.6 $ 132.4 $ 135.9 $ 137.3 $ 140.1 $ 1,767.7 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.0 $ 2.7 $ 4.9 $ 7.6 $ 10.3 $ 13.1 $ 15.5 $ 17.6 $ 19.5 $ 21.1 $ 22.6 $ 23.8 $ 24.9 $ 25.9 $ 26.8 $ 27.7 $ 28.4 $ 29.2 $ 29.5 $ 30.0 $ 382.3 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 10.4 $ 27.1 $ 49.1 $ 76.0 $ 103.9 $ 132.3 $ 156.3 $ 178.2 $ 197.7 $ 215.3 $ 230.5 $ 244.0 $ 256.3 $ 267.1 $ 277.0 $ 286.2 $ 294.8 $ 303.5 $ 306.3 $ 313.1 $ 3,925.1 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 4.0 $ 9.7 $ 16.7 $ 24.9 $ 32.6 $ 40.0 $ 45.7 $ 50.9 $ 55.8 $ 60.4 $ 64.9 $ 69.1 $ 73.2 $ 77.2 $ 81.0 $ 84.8 $ 88.4 $ 92.0 $ 94.2 $ 97.3 $1,162.9 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.9 $ 2.1 $ 3.7 $ 5.5 $ 7.1 $ 8.8 $ 10.0 $ 11.1 $ 12.2 $ 13.1 $ 14.1 $ 15.0 $ 15.8 $ 16.7 $ 17.5 $ 18.2 $ 19.0 $ 19.7 $ 20.2 $ 20.9 $ 251.5 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 8.9 $ 21.3 $ 36.7 $ 54.7 $ 71.7 $ 88.3 $ 100.8 $ 112.5 $ 123.3 $ 133.8 $ 143.7 $ 153.3 $ 162.8 $ 171.6 $ 180.3 $ 188.7 $ 196.9 $ 205.4 $ 210.0 $ 217.3 $ 2,582.1 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 8.4 $ 21.0 $ 36.6 $ 54.6 $ 71.3 $ 86.7 $ 97.5 $ 106.2 $ 113.5 $ 119.6 $ 124.8 $ 129.4 $ 133.5 $ 137.2 $ 140.6 $ 143.7 $ 146.6 $ 149.3 $ 149.8 $ 151.8 $2,122.1 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.9 $ 4.6 $ 8.0 $ 12.0 $ 15.6 $ 19.0 $ 21.3 $ 23.2 $ 24.7 $ 26.0 $ 27.1 $ 28.1 $ 28.9 $ 29.6 $ 30.3 $ 30.9 $ 31.5 $ 32.0 $ 32.1 $ 32.5 $ 459.3 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 18.6 $ 46.2 $ 80.5 $ 120.1 $ 157.0 $ 191.1 $ 215.0 $ 234.6 $ 250.7 $ 264.8 $ 276.7 $ 287.2 $ 296.9 $ 305.1 $ 312.7 $ 319.8 $ 326.3 $ 333.3 $ 334.0 $ 339.2 $ 4,709.7 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.39c, E.39g, and E.39k. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.5c Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (All Water Systems) HAAS - Preferred Alternative Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 156.3 $ 404.4 $ 731.6 $ 1,133.4 $ 1,482.1 $ 1,810.9 $ 2,107.9 $ 2,377.4 $ 2,614.5 $ 2,817.6 $ 2,994.0 $ 3,149.2 $ 3,288.0 $ 3,413.5 $ 3,528.4 $ 3,634.4 $ 3,733.2 $ 3,825.9 $ 3,862.8 $ 3,935.6 $ 51,001.0 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 23.9 $ 61.9 $ 112.0 $ 173.5 $ 226.6 $ 276.9 $ 322.0 $ 363.0 $ 398.7 $ 429.2 $ 455.9 $ 479.0 $ 500.0 $ 519.2 $ 536.4 $ 551.7 $ 565.9 $ 579.3 $ 585.4 $ 595.6 $ 7,755.8 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 359.3 $ 930.1 $ 1,680.7 $ 2,603.4 $ 3,407.0 $ 4,164.7 $ 4,847.7 $ 5,472.6 $ 6,023.4 $ 6,502.2 $ 6,912.3 $ 7,271.2 $ 7,604.4 $ 7,896.7 $ 8,165.5 $ 8,411.4 $ 8,647.4 $ 8,875.8 $ 8,956.5 $ 9,133.9 $ 117,866.1 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 149.7 $ 354.2 $ 603.3 $ 891.9 $ 1,092.7 $ 1,265.9 $ 1,413.6 $ 1,549.5 $ 1,676.7 $ 1,797.2 $ 1,912.2 $ 2,022.5 $ 2,128.6 $ 2,231.2 $ 2,330.6 $ 2,427.1 $ 2,521.1 $ 2,612.7 $ 2,667.2 $ 2,747.0 $ 34,394.6 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 22.9 $ 54.2 $ 92.3 $ 136.5 $ 167.0 $ 193.6 $ 215.9 $ 236.6 $ 255.7 $ 273.8 $ 291.2 $ 307.6 $ 323.7 $ 339.4 $ 354.3 $ 368.4 $ 382.2 $ 395.6 $ 404.2 $ 415.7 $ 5,230.7 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 344.1 $ 814.7 $ 1,385.9 $ 2,048.6 $ 2,511.8 $ 2,911.3 $ 3,250.8 $ 3,566.7 $ 3,862.8 $ 4,147.5 $ 4,414.8 $ 4,669.6 $ 4,923.1 $ 5,161.6 $ 5,393.6 $ 5,617.3 $ 5,839.7 $ 6,061.3 $ 6,184.2 $ 6,375.3 $ 79,484.7 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 294.7 $ 720.5 $ 1,242.6 $ 1,841.3 $ 2,259.5 $ 2,591.2 $ 2,845.2 $ 3,053.3 $ 3,228.2 $ 3,378.1 $ 3,508.8 $ 3,624.4 $ 3,728.2 $ 3,822.5 $ 3,909.2 $ 3,989.7 $ 4,065.3 $ 4,136.9 $ 4,150.7 $ 4,205.3 $ 60,595.5 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 45.1 $ 110.3 $ 190.2 $ 281.8 $ 345.4 $ 396.2 $ 434.6 $ 466.2 $ 492.2 $ 514.6 $ 534.3 $ 551.3 $ 566.9 $ 581.4 $ 594.3 $ 605.6 $ 616.2 $ 626.4 $ 629.0 $ 636.4 $ 9,218.4 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 677.4 $ 1,657.1 $ 2,854.5 $ 4,229.3 $ 5,194.1 $ 5,959.2 $ 6,543.2 $ 7,028.4 $ 7,437.2 $ 7,795.6 $ 8,100.8 $ 8,368.4 $ 8,622.5 $ 8,842.8 $ 9,046.7 $ 9,233.7 $ 9,416.8 $ 9,597.3 $ 9,624.0 $ 9,760.0 $ 139,989.3 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.5a and F.5b. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.5d Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 3% (All Water Systems) HAAS - Preferred Alternative Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Ann. Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 134.8 $ 338.7 $ 594.9 $ 894.7 $ 1,135.9 $ 1,347.5 $ 1,522.8 $ 1,667.5 $ 1,780.4 $ 1,862.8 $ 1,921.7 $ 1,962.5 $ 1,989.3 $ 2,005.1 $ 2,012.2 $ 2,012.3 $ 2,006.8 $ 1,996.7 $ 1,957.3 $ 1,936.0 $ 31,079.6 $ 1,784.8 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 20.6 $ 51.9 $ 91.0 $ 137.0 $ 173.7 $ 206.0 $ 232.6 $ 254.6 $ 271.5 $ 283.8 $ 292.6 $ 298.5 $ 302.5 $ 305.0 $ 305.9 $ 305.4 $ 304.2 $ 302.3 $ 296.6 $ 293.0 $ 4,728.6 $ 271.6 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 310.0 $ 779.0 $ 1,366.6 $ 2,055.2 $ 2,611.1 $ 3,098.9 $ 3,502.1 $ 3,838.4 $ 4,101.6 $ 4,298.7 $ 4,436.7 $ 4,531.2 $ 4,600.8 $ 4,638.5 $ 4,656.7 $ 4,657.2 $ 4,648.4 $ 4,632.2 $ 4,538.2 $ 4,493.3 $ 71,794.6 $ 4,123.0 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 129.1 $ 296.6 $ 490.5 $ 704.1 $ 837.4 $ 941.9 $ 1,021.2 $ 1,086.8 $ 1,141.8 $ 1,188.2 $ 1,227.4 $ 1,260.3 $ 1,287.9 $ 1,310.6 $ 1,329.1 $ 1,343.8 $ 1,355.2 $ 1,363.5 $ 1,351.4 $ 1,351.3 $ 21,018.2 $ 1,207.0 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 19.8 $ 45.4 $ 75.1 $ 107.8 $ 128.0 $ 144.0 $ 156.0 $ 165.9 $ 174.1 $ 181.0 $ 186.9 $ 191.7 $ 195.8 $ 199.3 $ 202.0 $ 204.0 $ 205.4 $ 206.5 $ 204.8 $ 204.5 $ 3,198.1 $ 183.7 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 296.8 $ 682.3 $ 1,126.8 $ 1,617.2 $ 1,925.1 $ 2,166.3 $ 2,348.5 $ 2,501.6 $ 2,630.4 $ 2,742.0 $ 2,833.7 $ 2,910.0 $ 2,978.5 $ 3,031.9 $ 3,075.9 $ 3,110.2 $ 3,139.2 $ 3,163.3 $ 3,133.5 $ 3,136.2 $ 48,549.3 $ 2,788.1 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 254.2 $ 603.4 $ 1,010.3 $ 1,453.5 $ 1,731.7 $ 1,928.1 $ 2,055.4 $ 2,141.5 $ 2,198.2 $ 2,233.3 $ 2,252.2 $ 2,258.6 $ 2,255.6 $ 2,245.3 $ 2,229.3 $ 2,209.0 $ 2,185.3 $ 2,159.0 $ 2,103.1 $ 2,068.7 $ 37,576.0 $ 2,157.9 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 38.9 $ 92.4 $ 154.6 $ 222.5 $ 264.7 $ 294.8 $ 314.0 $ 327.0 $ 335.2 $ 340.2 $ 342.9 $ 343.5 $ 343.0 $ 341.5 $ 338.9 $ 335.3 $ 331.3 $ 326.9 $ 318.7 $ 313.1 $ 5,719.4 $ 328.5 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 584.3 $ 1,387.8 $ 2,321.0 $ 3,338.7 $ 3,980.9 $ 4,434.2 $ 4,726.9 $ 4,929.6 $ 5,064.4 $ 5,153.8 $ 5,199.6 $ 5,214.9 $ 5,216.8 $ 5,194.2 $ 5,159.2 $ 5,112.5 $ 5,062.0 $ 5,008.8 $ 4,876.4 $ 4,801.3 $ 86,767.3 $ 4,982.9 Notes: Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005. Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibit F.5c. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.5e Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal (All Water Systems) HAAS - Preferred Alternative Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Ann. Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 111.5 $ 269.5 $ 455.6 $ 659.7 $ 806.1 $ 920.6 $ 1 ,001 .5 $ 1 ,055.6 $ 1 ,084.9 $ 1 ,092.7 $ 1 ,085.2 $ 1 ,066.7 $ 1 ,040.9 $ 1 ,009.9 $ 975.6 $ 939.2 $ 901 .6 $ 863.6 $ 814.8 $ 775.9 $ 16,931.0 $ 1,452.9 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 17.1 $ 41.3 $ 69.7 $ 101.0 $ 123.2 $ 140.8 $ 153.0 $ 161.2 $ 165.4 $ 166.5 $ 165.2 $ 162.2 $ 158.3 $ 153.6 $ 148.3 $ 142.6 $ 136.7 $ 130.7 $ 123.5 $ 117.4 $ 2,577.6 $ 221.2 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 256.2 $ 619.8 $ 1,046.7 $ 1,515.2 $ 1,853.2 $ 2,117.1 $ 2,303.1 $ 2,429.9 $ 2,499.5 $ 2,521.6 $ 2,505.3 $ 2,463.0 $ 2,407.3 $ 2,336.4 $ 2,257.8 $ 2,173.7 $ 2,088.5 $ 2,003.4 $ 1,889.3 $ 1,800.7 $ 39,087.7 $ 3,354.1 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 106.7 $ 236.0 $ 375.7 $ 519.1 $ 594.3 $ 643.5 $ 671.6 $ 688.0 $ 695.8 $ 697.0 $ 693.1 $ 685.1 $ 673.9 $ 660.1 $ 644.4 $ 627.2 $ 608.9 $ 589.7 $ 562.6 $ 541.6 $ 11,514.3 $ 988.0 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 16.3 $ 36.1 $ 57.5 $ 79.5 $ 90.9 $ 98.4 $ 102.6 $ 105.1 $ 106.1 $ 106.2 $ 105.5 $ 104.2 $ 102.5 $ 100.4 $ 98.0 $ 95.2 $ 92.3 $ 89.3 $ 85.3 $ 82.0 $ 1,753.2 $ 150.4 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 245.3 $ 542.8 $ 863.0 $ 1,192.3 $ 1 ,366.3 $ 1 ,479.9 $ 1 ,544.4 $ 1 ,583.6 $ 1 ,602.9 $ 1 ,608.5 $ 1,600.1 $ 1 ,581 .8 $ 1 ,558.5 $ 1,527.1 $ 1 ,491 .4 $ 1 ,451 .6 $ 1,410.4 $ 1,368.1 $ 1 ,304.5 $ 1 ,256.9 $ 26,579.7 $ 2,280.8 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 210.1 $ 480.1 $ 773.8 $ 1 ,071 .6 $ 1 ,229.0 $ 1,317.2 $ 1 ,351 .7 $ 1 ,355.7 $ 1 ,339.6 $ 1,310.1 $ 1 ,271 .7 $ 1 ,227.7 $ 1,180.2 $ 1,130.9 $ 1 ,080.9 $ 1 ,031 .0 $ 981 .8 $ 933.7 $ 875.6 $ 829.1 $ 20,981.8 $ 1,800.5 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 32.2 $ 73.5 $ 118.4 $ 164.0 $ 187.9 $ 201.4 $ 206.5 $ 207.0 $ 204.3 $ 199.6 $ 193.6 $ 186.7 $ 179.5 $ 172.0 $ 164.3 $ 156.5 $ 148.8 $ 141.4 $ 132.7 $ 125.5 $ 3,195.8 $ 274.2 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 483.0 $ 1,104.2 $ 1,777.7 $ 2,461.5 $ 2,825.3 $ 3,029.4 $ 3,108.6 $ 3,120.7 $ 3,086.2 $ 3,023.3 $ 2,936.1 $ 2,834.7 $ 2,729.7 $ 2,616.3 $ 2,501.5 $ 2,386.2 $ 2,274.3 $ 2,166.2 $ 2,030.2 $ 1,924.1 $ 48,419.0 $ 4,154.9 Notes: Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005. Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibit F.5c. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.5f Mean Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 3% Discount Rate, by System Size (All Systems) HAAS - Preferred Alternative Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Ann. <1X $ 00 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 02 $ 03 $ 03 $ 03 $ 04 $ 04 $ 04 $ 04 $ 04 $ 04 S 6.3 100-499 $ 02 $ 04 $ 07 $ 1 1 $ 1 5 $ 1 9 $ 23 $ 25 $ 29 $ 32 $ 33 $ 33 $ 33 $ 32 $ 48.7 500-999 $ 02 $ 05 $ 09 $ 1 3 $ 1 8 $ 23 $ 27 $ 3 1 $ 35 $ 38 $ 39 $ 40 $ 40 $ 39 $ 58.7 1,XO-3,299 $ 08 $ 20 $ 35 $ 53 $ 73 $ 95 $ 11 1 $ 124 $ 143 $ 154 $ 159 $ 16 1 $ 16 1 $ 157 $ 237.5 3,3X-9,999 $ 1 7 $ 44 $ 77 $ 116 $ 159 $ 207 $ 242 $ 27 1 $ 31 3 $ 338 $ 349 $ 354 $ 353 S 520.4 10,XO- 49,999 $ 78 $ 195 $ 343 $ 51 6 $ 71 2 $ 893 $ 1034 $ 115 1 $ 1322 $ 141 7 $ 1462 $ 1476 $ 1472 $ 2,196.0 50,000-99,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 63 $ 159 $ 279 $ 420 $ 550 $ 653 $ 740 $ 81 3 $ 91 3 $ 965 $ 9S9 $ 994 $ 989 $ 959 $ 1 ,523.6 100,OX- 999,999 $ $ $ $ 272 $ 685 $ 1203 $ 181 1 $ 2249 $ 2627 $ 2950 $ 321 7 $ 3569 $ 3747 $ 3824 $ 3837 $ 381 0 $ 3693 $ 5,978.0 >1 ,XO,XO $ $ $ $ 224 $ 563 $ 989 $ 1489 $ 1849 $ 2160 $ 2426 $ 2646 $ 2936 « 3082 $ 3146 $ 3157 $ 3134 $ 3038 $ 4,917.3 Total $ $ $ $ 666 $ 1674 $ 2943 $ 4429 $ 5627 $ 6680 $ 7556 $ 8280 $ 9264 $ 9776 $ 1,0005 $ 1,0058 $ 9997 S 9697 S 15,486.5 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model <1X $ - $ - $ - $ 00 $ 00 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 02 $ 02 $ 02 $ 02 $ 03 $ 03 $ 03 $ 03 $ 03 $ 4.1 100-499 $ $ $ $ 0 1 $ 03 $ 05 $ 08 $ 1 0 $ 1 3 $ 1 5 $ 1 6 $ 1 8 $ 20 $ 2 1 $ 22 $ 22 $ 22 $ 31.9 500-999 $ $ $ $ 02 $ 04 $ 06 $ 09 $ 1 3 $ 1 6 $ 1 8 $ 1 9 $ 2 $ 4 $ 5 « 6 $ 7 $ 7 S 38.6 1,XO-3,299 $ $ $ $ 07 $ 1 6 $ 26 $ 38 $ 5 1 $ 64 $ 72 $ 79 $ 89 $ 97 $ 102 $ 106 $ 109 $ 108 S 155.9 3,3X-9,999 $ $ $ $ 1 5 $ 34 $ 57 $ 83 $ 11 1 $ 14 1 $ 158 $ 173 $ 195 $ 21 1 $ 224 $ 232 $ 238 $ 238 $ 341.7 10,XO- 49,999 $ $ $ $ 74 $ 170 $ 28 1 $ 404 $ 536 $ 64 1 $ 709 $ 763 $ 847 $ 908 $ 950 $ 980 $ 999 S 993 $ 1,482.5 50,000-99,999 $ $ $ $ 6 1 $ 139 $ 230 $ 33 1 $ 41 0 $ 460 $ 499 $ 532 $ 583 $ 620 $ 646 $ 664 $ 675 $ 669 $ 1 ,031 .3 100,OX- $ $ $ $ 262 $ 602 $ 996 $ 143 1 $ 1653 $ 1827 $ 1970 $ 2090 « 2277 $ 241 1 $ 2506 $ 2570 $ 2609 $ 2583 S 4,050.8 >1 ,XO,XO $ $ $ $ 21 6 $ 497 $ 822 $ 1180 $ 1363 $ 1506 $ 1623 $ 1722 $ 1875 $ 1985 $ 2062 $ 211 4 $ 2146 $ 2125 $ 3,335.2 Total $ $ $ $ 638 $ 1466 $ 2426 $ 3485 $ 4149 $ 4670 $ 5067 $ 5396 $ 5909 $ 6278 $ 6539 $ 671 7 $ 6827 $ 6768 $ 10,472.1 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model <100 $ - $ - $ - $ 00 $ 0 1 $ 02 $ 02 $ 03 $ 04 $ 04 $ 04 $ 05 $ 05 $ 05 $ 05 $ 05 $ 7.7 100-499 $ - $ - $ - $ 03 $ 07 $ 1 2 $ 1 7 $ 23 $ 28 $ 32 $ 34 $ 36 $ 37 $ 38 $ 37 $ 36 S 59.5 500-999 $ - $ - $ - $ 03 $ 08 $ 1 4 $ 2 1 $ 27 $ 34 $ 38 $ 4 1 $ 44 $ 45 $ 45 $ 45 $ 44 $ 71.8 1 ,OX-3,299 $ $ $ $ 1 4 $ 34 $ 57 $ 83 $ 11 1 $ 139 $ 155 $ 166 $ 178 $ 183 $ 183 $ 18 1 $ 178 S 290.4 3,300-9,999 $ $ $ $ 3 1 $ 74 $ 126 $ 183 $ 242 $ 304 $ 339 $ 363 $ 390 $ 400 $ 40 1 $ 397 $ 389 S 636.3 10,XO- 49,999 $ $ $ $ 146 $ 347 $ 58 1 $ 837 $ 1106 $ 131 6 $ 1439 $ 1522 $ 161 5 $ 1649 $ 1650 $ 1630 $ 1599 $ 2,665.3 50,XO- 99,999 $ $ $ $ 119 $ 283 $ 474 $ 682 $ 846 $ 94 1 $ 1005 $ 1049 $ 1097 $ 111 2 $ 111 1 $ 1107 $ 1092 $ 1069 $ 1,841.9 100,OX- 999,999 $ $ $ $ 51 5 $ 1222 $ 2047 $ 2946 $ 341 3 $ 3727 $ 3944 $ 409 1 $ 4249 $ 4292 $ 4285 $ 4266 $ 420 1 $ 411 0 $ 393 8 $ 7,211.3 >1 ,XO,XO $ $ $ $ 424 $ 1006 $ 1685 $ 2425 $ 2808 $ 3066 $ 3243 $ 3364 $ 3494 $ 3520 $ 3528 $ 3523 $ 3508 $ 3454 $ 3380 $ 5,930.3 Total $ $ $ $ 1256 $ 2983 $ 4998 $ 7196 $ 8579 $ 9559 $ 1,0198 $ 1,0634 $ 1,1107 $ 1,1210 $ 1,1251 $ 1,1245 $ 1,1203 $ 1,1041 $ 1,0810 $ 1,0362 $ 18,714.6 n millions of 2003 dollars Estimates are discoi total annualized at discount rate idd exactly to totals due to independent roundiru (hibits F 1f, E 39b, E 39c, E 39f, E 39g, E 39j, e Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.5g Mean Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 7% Discount Rate, by System Size (All Systems) HAAS - Preferred Alternative Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2011 2012 2014 2015 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Ann. <1X $ - $ - $ 00 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 0 $ 0 $ 0 $ 0 $ 0 $ 0 $ 0 $ 0 $ 0 $ 0 $ 0 S 3.4 100-499 $ $ $ 03 $ 06 $ 1 1 $ 1 3 $ 1 6 $ 1 7 $ 1 7 $ 1 7 $ 1 7 $ 1 6 $ 1 6 $ 1 5 $ 1 4 $ 1 3 $ 26.1 500-999 $ $ $ 04 $ 07 $ 1 3 $ 1 6 $ 1 9 $ 20 $ 2 1 $ 2 1 $ 20 $ 20 $ 1 9 $ 1 9 $ 1 7 $ 1 6 $ 31.6 1,XO-3,299 $ $ $ 1 6 $ 27 $ 52 $ 65 $ 78 $ 82 $ 84 $ 84 $ 82 $ 80 $ 78 $ 75 $ 70 $ 63 $ 127.6 3,300-9,999 $ $ $ 35 $ 59 $ 113 $ 142 $ 172 $ 179 $ 184 $ 183 $ 180 $ 176 $ 17 1 $ 165 $ 153 $ 138 $ 279.6 10,XO- 49,999 $ $ $ 155 $ 262 $ 506 $ 61 0 $ 728 $ 759 $ 775 $ 770 $ 755 $ 736 $ 714 $ 689 $ 637 $ 573 $ 1,183.8 50,XO- 99,999 $ $ $ 126 $ 21 4 $ 39 1 $ 446 $ 51 5 $ 53 1 $ 536 $ 525 $ 51 3 $ 498 $ 482 $ 464 $ 428 $ 384 $ 828.2 100,OX- 999,999 $ $ $ 545 $ 922 $ 1596 $ 1794 $ 2036 $ 2085 $ 2093 $ 2036 $ 1986 $ 1926 $ 1860 $ 179 1 $ 1648 $ 1480 $ 3,264.8 >1 ,XO,XO $ $ $ 448 $ 758 $ 131 2 $ 1476 $ 1675 $ 171 5 $ 1722 $ 1675 $ 1633 $ 1584 $ 1530 $ 1473 $ 1356 $ 121 7 S 2,685.4 Total $ $ $ 1332 $ 2254 $ 3994 $ 4564 $ 5242 $ 539 1 $ 5434 $ 531 4 $ 5189 $ 5039 $ 4872 $ 4694 $ 4324 S 3886 S 8,430.4 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model <1X $ - $ - $ 00 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 01 $ 2.2 100-499 $ $ $ 03 $ 04 $ 07 $ 09 $ 1 0 $ 1 1 $ 1 1 $ 1 1 $ 1 1 $ 1 1 $ 1 0 $ 1 0 $ 1 0 $ 09 $ 17.2 500-999 $ $ $ 03 $ 05 $ 09 $ 1 1 $ 1 2 $ 1 3 $ 1 3 $ 1 3 $ 1 3 $ 1 3 $ 1 2 $ 1 2 $ 1 2 $ 1 1 $ 20.7 1,XO-3,299 $ $ $ 1 2 $ 20 $ 36 $ 44 $ 50 $ 5 1 $ 52 $ 52 $ 52 $ 5 1 $ 50 $ 49 $ 47 $ 43 S 83.9 3,3X-9,999 $ $ $ 27 $ 44 $ 79 $ 96 $ 109 $ 113 $ 114 $ 115 $ 114 $ 113 $ 11 1 $ 108 $ 103 $ 95 $ 183.8 10,XO- 49,999 $ $ $ 135 $ 21 6 $ 38 1 $ 438 $ 483 $ 493 $ 497 $ 493 $ 487 $ 479 $ 469 $ 457 $ 432 S 398 S 803.8 50,XO- 99,999 $ $ $ 11 1 $ 176 $ 29 1 $ 31 4 $ 337 $ 34 1 $ 342 $ 337 $ 332 $ 325 $ 31 8 $ 31 0 $ 292 $ 268 S 563.8 100,OX- $ $ $ 479 $ 763 $ 1173 $ 1248 $ 1323 $ 1335 $ 1336 $ 131 1 $ 1289 $ 1262 $ 1232 $ 1199 $ 1128 $ 1035 $ 2,224.9 >1 ,XO,XO $ $ $ 396 $ 630 $ 967 $ 1029 $ 1090 $ 1100 $ 1100 $ 1079 $ 106 1 $ 1039 $ 101 4 $ 987 $ 928 $ 852 $ 1,832.1 Total $ $ $ 1167 « 1858 $ 2944 $ 3190 $ 341 6 $ 3458 $ 3466 $ 341 3 $ 3360 $ 3294 $ 321 8 $ 3135 $ 2953 $ 271 2 $ 5,732.5 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model <100 $ - $ - $ 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 02 $ 03 $ 03 $ 03 $ 03 $ 03 $ 03 $ 02 $ 02 $ 02 $ 02 $ 02 $ 4.2 100-499 $ - $ - $ 06 $ 09 $ 1 6 $ 1 9 $ 1 $ 2 $ 1 $ 0 $ 0 $ 1 9 $ 1 8 $ 1 7 $ 1 6 $ 14 $ 32.7 500-999 $ - $ - $ 07 $ 1 1 $ 1 9 $ 3 $ 6 $ 6 « 6 $ 5 $ 4 $ 3 $ 2 $ 1 $ 1 9 $ 1 7 S 39.4 1 ,OX-3,299 $ $ $ 27 $ 44 $ 79 $ 95 $ 105 $ 105 $ 104 $ 99 $ 96 $ 92 $ 88 $ 85 $ 77 $ 68 S 159.4 3,3X-9,999 $ $ $ 59 $ 96 $ 172 $ 208 $ 230 $ 23 1 $ 229 $ 21 8 $ 21 0 $ 202 $ 194 $ 185 « ,68 $ 150 S 349.4 10,XO- 49,999 $ $ $ 276 $ 445 $ 785 $ 899 $ 963 $ 962 $ 947 $ 896 $ 865 $ 83 1 $ 796 $ 76 1 $ 692 $ 61 5 $ 1,471.5 50,XO- 99,999 $ $ $ 225 $ 363 $ 600 $ 643 $ 664 $ 657 $ 643 $ 604 $ 582 $ 558 $ 534 $ 51 0 $ 462 $ 41 1 $ 1,026.1 100,OX- 999,999 $ $ $ 972 $ 1568 $ 2422 $ 2547 $ 2590 $ 2553 $ 2492 $ 2333 $ 2242 $ 2149 $ 2054 $ 196 1 $ 1778 $ 1578 $ 4,038.1 >1 ,XO,XO $ $ $ 80 1 $ 129 1 $ 1993 $ 2095 $ 2130 $ 2099 $ 2049 $ 191 8 $ 1844 $ 1767 $ 1689 $ 161 2 $ 1462 $ 1298 $ 3,321.0 Total $ $ $ 2373 $ 3828 $ 6089 $ 653 1 $ 6732 $ 6657 $ 651 5 $ 6330 $ 611 6 $ 5884 $ 5643 $ 5398 $ 5153 $ 4675 $ 4152 $ 10,441 .9 Present values in millions of 2003 dollars Estimates are discounted to 200 Ann = value of total annualized at discount rate Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding Derived from Exhibits F 1f, E 39b, E 39c, E 39f, E 39g, E 39j, and E 39k Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Section F.6 Model Outputs - Alternative 1 TTHM as Indicator Lymphoma for Non-Fatal Cases ------- ------- Exhibit F.6a Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model) TTHM - Alternative 1 Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Surface Water Systems Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 122.6 $ 326.7 $ 596.2 $ 921.0 $ 1,190.1 $ 1,420.1 $ 1,613.6 $ 1,781.3 $ 1,929.0 $ 2,061.0 $ 2,180.1 $ 2,288.6 $ 2,388.0 $ 2,479.9 $ 2,565.2 $ 2,645.0 $ 2,719.9 $ 2,790.7 $ 2,820.8 $ 2,877.1 $ 37,717.0 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 18.8 $ 50.0 $ 91.2 $ 141.0 $ 181.9 $ 217.2 $ 246.5 $ 272.0 $ 294.1 $ 314.0 $ 332.0 $ 348.1 $ 363.1 $ 377.2 $ 390.0 $ 401.5 $ 412.3 $ 422.5 $ 427.5 $ 435.4 $ 5,736.2 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 281.8 $ 751.4 $ 1,369.6 $ 2,115.4 $ 2,735.9 $ 3,266.1 $ 3,710.8 $ 4,100.3 $ 4,444.2 $ 4,756.2 $ 5,033.4 $ 5,284.1 $ 5,523.0 $ 5,736.8 $ 5,936.5 $ 6,121.5 $ 6,300.4 $ 6,474.3 $ 6,540.5 $ 6,677.3 $ 87,159.4 Ground Water Systems Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 4.2 $ 11.2 $ 20.4 $ 31.4 $ 42.5 $ 53.2 $ 61.8 $ 69.2 $ 75.6 $ 81.3 $ 86.4 $ 91.0 $ 95.3 $ 99.2 $ 102.8 $ 106.1 $ 109.3 $ 112.2 $ 113.5 $ 115.9 $ 1,482.5 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.6 $ 1.7 $ 3.1 $ 4.8 $ 6.5 $ 8.1 $ 9.4 $ 10.6 $ 11.5 $ 12.4 $ 13.2 $ 13.8 $ 14.5 $ 15.1 $ 15.6 $ 16.1 $ 16.6 $ 17.0 $ 17.2 $ 17.5 $ 225.4 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 9.6 $ 25.7 $ 46.8 $ 72.2 $ 97.8 $ 122.4 $ 142.2 $ 159.3 $ 174.2 $ 187.6 $ 199.5 $ 210.2 $ 220.3 $ 229.4 $ 237.8 $ 245.6 $ 253.1 $ 260.3 $ 263.2 $ 268.9 $ 3,426.1 All Systems Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 126.8 $ 337.8 $ 616.5 $ 952.4 $ 1,232.7 $ 1,473.4 $ 1,675.4 $ 1,850.5 $ 2,004.7 $ 2,142.3 $ 2,266.6 $ 2,379.6 $ 2,483.3 $ 2,579.0 $ 2,668.0 $ 2,751.1 $ 2,829.2 $ 2,902.9 $ 2,934.4 $ 2,993.0 $ 39,199.4 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 19.4 $ 51.7 $ 94.4 $ 145.8 $ 188.4 $ 225.3 $ 255.9 $ 282.6 $ 305.7 $ 326.3 $ 345.1 $ 361.9 $ 377.6 $ 392.3 $ 405.6 $ 417.6 $ 428.9 $ 439.5 $ 444.7 $ 452.9 $ 5,961.6 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 291.4 $ 777.1 $ 1,416.4 $ 2,187.6 $ 2,833.6 $ 3,388.5 $ 3,853.0 $ 4,259.5 $ 4,618.4 $ 4,943.9 $ 5,232.9 $ 5,494.3 $ 5,743.3 $ 5,966.2 $ 6,174.3 $ 6,367.0 $ 6,553.4 $ 6,734.6 $ 6,803.8 $ 6,946.3 $ 90,585.6 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.40b, and E.40c. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.6b Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model (All Water Systems) TTHM -Alternative 1 Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Ann. 3% Discount Rate Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 109.4 $ 282.9 $ 501 .3 $ 751 .8 $ 944.7 $ 1 ,096.3 $ 1,210.4 $ 1 ,297.9 $ 1,365.1 $ 1,416.3 $ 1 ,454.8 $ 1 ,482.9 $ 1 ,502.4 $ 1,514.9 $ 1 ,521 .5 $ 1 ,523.2 $ 1 ,520.8 $ 1,515.0 $ 1 ,486.8 $ 1 ,472.4 $ 23,970.9 $ 1,376.6 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 16.7 $ 43.3 $ 76.7 $ 115.1 $ 144.4 $ 167.6 $ 184.9 $ 198.2 $ 208.1 $ 215.8 $ 221 .5 $ 225.5 $ 228.5 $ 230.4 $ 231 .3 $ 231 .2 $ 230.5 $ 229.4 $ 225.3 $ 222.8 $ 3,647.4 $ 209.5 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 251.4 $ 650.8 $ 1,151.6 $ 1,726.9 $ 2,171.7 $ 2,521.3 $ 2,783.5 $ 2,987.6 $ 3,144.9 $ 3,268.5 $ 3,358.8 $ 3,423.9 $ 3,474.8 $ 3,504.5 $ 3,521.1 $ 3,525.3 $ 3,522.8 $ 3,514.7 $ 3,447.4 $ 3,417.1 $ 55,368.7 $ 3,179.7 7% Discount Rate Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 90.4 $ 225.1 $ 384.0 $ 554.3 $ 670.5 $ 749.0 $ 796.0 $ 821.6 $ 831.9 $ 830.8 $ 821.5 $ 806.1 $ 786.1 $ 763.0 $ 737.7 $ 710.9 $ 683.3 $ 655.2 $ 619.0 $ 590.1 $ 13,126.5 $ 1,126.4 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 13.8 $ 34.5 $ 58.8 $ 84.8 $ 102.5 $ 114.5 $ 121.6 $ 125.5 $ 126.8 $ 126.6 $ 125.1 $ 122.6 $ 119.5 $ 116.1 $ 112.1 $ 107.9 $ 103.6 $ 99.2 $ 93.8 $ 89.3 $ 1,998.6 $ 171.5 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 207.8 $ 517.8 $ 882.0 $ 1 ,273.2 $ 1 ,541 .3 $ 1 ,722.5 $ 1 ,830.5 $ 1 ,891 .3 $ 1,916.5 $ 1,917.3 $ 1 ,896.6 $ 1,861.1 $ 1,818.2 $ 1 ,765.2 $ 1 ,707.2 $ 1 ,645.4 $ 1 ,582.7 $ 1,520.1 $ 1 ,435.2 $ 1 ,369.4 $ 30,301.5 $ 2,600.2 Notes: Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005. Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibit F.6a. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.6c Mean Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 3% Discount Rate, by System Size (All Systems) TTHM - Alternative 1 Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Ann. <100 $ - $ - $ - - $ - $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 6.7 $ 0.4 100-499 $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.5 $ 0.9 $ 1.3 $ 1.8 $ 2.3 $ 2.6 $ 2.9 $ 3.1 $ 3.2 $ 3.3 $ 3.4 $ 3.5 $ 3.5 $ 3.6 $ 3.6 $ 3.6 $ 3.6 $ 3.5 $ 3.5 $ 53.6 $ 3.1 500-999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.3 $ 0.6 $ 1.1 $ 1.7 $ 2.4 $ 3.0 $ 3.5 $ 3.8 $ 4.1 $ 4.3 $ 4.5 $ 4.6 $ 4.7 $ 4.7 $ 4.8 $ 4.8 $ 4.8 $ 4.8 $ 4.7 $ 4.7 $ 71.8 $ 4.1 1,000-3,299 $ $ $ - $ $ 1.2 $ 3.1 $ 5.5 $ 8.3 $ 11.3 $ 14.5 $ 16.7 $ 18.4 $ 19.7 $ 20.7 $ 21.5 $ 22.1 $ 22.5 $ 22.7 $ 22.9 $ 23.0 $ 23.0 $ 23.0 $ 22.6 $ 22.4 $ 345.3 $ 19.8 3,300-9,999 $ $ $ - $ $ 3.0 $ 7.7 $ 13.7 $ 20.5 $ 28.0 $ 35.9 $ 41.5 $ 45.7 $ 48.9 $ 51.3 $ 53.2 $ 54.6 $ 55.6 $ 56.3 $ 56.7 $ 57.0 $ 57.0 $ 56.9 $ 55.9 $ 55.5 $ 854.8 $ 49.1 10,000- 49,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 12.2 $ 31.6 $ 56.1 $ 84.1 $ 114.7 $ 141.6 $ 161.0 $ 175.8 $ 187.1 $ 195.7 $ 202.3 $ 207.2 $ 210.7 $ 213.0 $ 214.5 $ 215.1 $ 215.2 $ 214.6 $ 210.9 $ 209.0 $ 3,272.4 $ 187.9 50,000-99,999 $ $ $ - $ $ 10.3 $ 26.5 $ 47.0 $ 70.5 $ 91.5 $ 106.5 $ 117.9 $ 126.7 $ 133.4 $ 138.5 $ 142.4 $ 145.2 $ 147.2 $ 148.5 $ 149.1 $ 149.3 $ 149.1 $ 148.6 $ 145.9 $ 144.5 $ 2,338.6 $ 134.3 100,000- 999,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 44.8 $ 115.9 $ 205.3 $ 307.9 $ 378.6 $ 431.6 $ 472.3 $ 503.6 $ 527.6 $ 545.9 $ 559.6 $ 569.6 $ 576.4 $ 580.6 $ 582.6 $ 582.9 $ 581.7 $ 579.2 $ 568.2 $ 562.5 $ 9,276.7 $ 532.7 >1, 000,000 $ $ $ - $ $ 37.4 $ 96.8 $ 171.6 $ 257.3 $ 316.3 $ 360.6 $ 394.6 $ 420.7 $ 440.8 $ 456.2 $ 467.6 $ 475.9 $ 481.6 $ 485.1 $ 486.8 $ 487.0 $ 486.0 $ 483.9 $ 474.7 $ 470.0 $ 7,751.0 $ 445.1 Total $ $ $ - $ $ 109.4 $ 282.9 $ 501.3 $ 751.8 $ 944.7 $ 1,096.3 $ 1,210.4 $ 1,297.9 $ 1,365.1 $ 1,416.3 $ 1,454.8 $ 1,482.9 $ 1,502.4 $ 1,514.9 $ 1,521.5 $ 1,523.2 $ 1,520.8 $ 1,515.0 $ 1,486.8 $ 1,472.4 $ 23,970.9 $ 1,376.6 Notes: Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005. Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and E.40d. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.6d Mean Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 7% Discount Rate, by System Size (All Systems) TTHM - Alternative 1 Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Ann. <100 $ - $ - $ - - $ - $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 3.6 $ 0.3 100-499 $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.4 $ 0.7 $ 0.9 $ 1.2 $ 1.5 $ 1.7 $ 1.8 $ 1.9 $ 1.9 $ 1.9 $ 1.9 $ 1.8 $ 1.8 $ 1.7 $ 1.7 $ 1.6 $ 1.5 $ 1.5 $ 1.4 $ 28.9 $ 2.5 500-999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.5 $ 0.9 $ 1.3 $ 1.7 $ 2.1 $ 2.3 $ 2.4 $ 2.5 $ 2.5 $ 2.5 $ 2.5 $ 2.4 $ 2.4 $ 2.3 $ 2.2 $ 2.2 $ 2.1 $ 2.0 $ 1.9 $ 38.8 $ 3.3 1,000-3,299 $ $ $ - $ $ 1.0 $ 2.5 $ 4.2 $ 6.1 $ 8.0 $ 9.9 $ 11.0 $ 11.7 $ 12.0 $ 12.2 $ 12.1 $ 12.0 $ 11.8 $ 11.5 $ 11.1 $ 10.7 $ 10.3 $ 9.9 $ 9.4 $ 9.0 $ 186.5 $ 16.0 3,300-9,999 $ $ $ - $ $ 2.5 $ 6.1 $ 10.5 $ 15.1 $ 19.9 $ 24.5 $ 27.3 $ 28.9 $ 29.8 $ 30.1 $ 30.0 $ 29.7 $ 29.1 $ 28.4 $ 27.5 $ 26.6 $ 25.6 $ 24.6 $ 23.3 $ 22.2 $ 461.7 $ 39.6 10,000- 49,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 10.1 $ 25.2 $ 42.9 $ 62.0 $ 81.4 $ 96.7 $ 105.9 $ 111.3 $ 114.0 $ 114.8 $ 114.2 $ 112.6 $ 110.2 $ 107.3 $ 104.0 $ 100.4 $ 96.7 $ 92.8 $ 87.8 $ 83.8 $ 1,774.2 $ 152.2 50,000-99,999 $ $ $ - $ $ 8.5 $ 21.1 $ 36.0 $ 52.0 $ 64.9 $ 72.8 $ 77.5 $ 80.2 $ 81.3 $ 81.3 $ 80.4 $ 78.9 $ 77.0 $ 74.8 $ 72.3 $ 69.7 $ 67.0 $ 64.3 $ 60.7 $ 57.9 $ 1,278.6 $ 109.7 100,000- 999,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 37.0 $ 92.2 $ 157.3 $ 227.0 $ 268.7 $ 294.9 $ 310.6 $ 318.8 $ 321.5 $ 320.3 $ 316.0 $ 309.6 $ 301.6 $ 292.4 $ 282.5 $ 272.1 $ 261.3 $ 250.5 $ 236.5 $ 225.4 $ 5,096.2 $ 437.3 >1, 000,000 $ $ $ - $ $ 30.9 $ 77.0 $ 131.4 $ 189.7 $ 224.5 $ 246.4 $ 259.5 $ 266.4 $ 268.6 $ 267.6 $ 264.0 $ 258.7 $ 252.0 $ 244.3 $ 236.0 $ 227.3 $ 218.4 $ 209.3 $ 197.6 $ 188.3 $ 4,258.0 $ 365.4 Total $ $ $ - $ $ 90.4 $ 225.1 $ 384.0 $ 554.3 $ 670.5 $ 749.0 $ 796.0 $ 821.6 $ 831.9 $ 830.8 $ 821.5 $ 806.1 $ 786.1 $ 763.0 $ 737.7 $ 710.9 $ 683.3 $ 655.2 $ 619.0 $ 590.1 $ 13,126.5 $ 1,126.4 Notes: Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005. Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and E.40d. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Section F.7 Model Outputs - Alternative 1 TTHM as Indicator Bronchitis for Non-Fatal Cases ------- ------- Exhibit F.7a Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model) TTHM-Alternative 1 Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Surface Water Systems Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 60.6 $ 161.5 $ 294.9 $ 455.9 $ 589.6 $ 704.1 $ 800.6 $ 884.5 $ 958.6 $ 1 ,025.0 $ 1,085.1 $ 1,140.0 $ 1,190.5 $ 1 ,237.4 $ 1,281.0 $ 1 ,322.0 $ 1 ,360.6 $ 1 ,397.3 $ 1,411.9 $ 1,441.0 $ 18,802.2 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 13.3 $ 35.5 $ 64.8 $ 100.1 $ 129.2 $ 154.0 $ 175.0 $ 193.1 $ 208.7 $ 222.8 $ 235.5 $ 247.1 $ 257.6 $ 267.0 $ 276.2 $ 284.4 $ 292.3 $ 299.7 $ 303.0 $ 308.9 $ 4,068.2 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 133.2 $ 355.7 $ 649.2 $ 1,003.1 $ 1 ,297.9 $ 1 ,552.5 $ 1 ,764.9 $ 1 ,953.4 $ 2,117.8 $ 2,269.8 $ 2,404.8 $ 2,529.5 $ 2,646.8 $ 2,751.3 $ 2,849.8 $ 2,942.7 $ 3,029.6 $ 3,119.0 $ 3,148.9 $ 3,219.5 $ 41,739.3 Ground Water Systems Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.1 $ 5.5 $ 10.1 $ 15.6 $ 21.1 $ 26.4 $ 30.7 $ 34.4 $ 37.6 $ 40.4 $ 43.0 $ 45.4 $ 47.5 $ 49.5 $ 51.3 $ 53.0 $ 54.7 $ 56.2 $ 56.8 $ 58.0 $ 739.1 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.5 $ 1.2 $ 2.2 $ 3.4 $ 4.6 $ 5.8 $ 6.7 $ 7.5 $ 8.2 $ 8.8 $ 9.3 $ 9.8 $ 10.3 $ 10.7 $ 11.1 $ 11.4 $ 11.7 $ 12.0 $ 12.2 $ 12.4 $ 159.9 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 4.5 $ 12.1 $ 22.2 $ 34.2 $ 46.4 $ 58.2 $ 67.6 $ 75.9 $ 83.0 $ 89.5 $ 95.3 $ 100.6 $ 105.6 $ 110.0 $ 114.2 $ 118.1 $ 121.7 $ 125.4 $ 126.7 $ 129.7 $ 1,641.0 All Systems Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 62.6 $ 167.0 $ 305.0 $ 471.5 $ 610.7 $ 730.5 $ 831.3 $ 918.8 $ 996.2 $ 1 ,065.4 $ 1,128.1 $ 1,185.4 $ 1 ,238.0 $ 1 ,286.8 $ 1 ,332.3 $ 1 ,375.0 $ 1,415.3 $ 1 ,453.4 $ 1 ,468.7 $ 1,499.1 $ 19,541.3 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 13.8 $ 36.7 $ 67.0 $ 103.5 $ 133.8 $ 159.8 $ 181.7 $ 200.6 $ 216.9 $ 231.6 $ 244.9 $ 256.9 $ 267.8 $ 277.6 $ 287.2 $ 295.8 $ 304.1 $ 311.7 $ 315.2 $ 321.3 $ 4,228.0 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 137.7 $ 367.8 $ 671 .3 $ 1 ,037.4 $ 1 ,344.3 $ 1,610.7 $ 1 ,832.6 $ 2,029.3 $ 2,200.8 $ 2,359.3 $ 2,500.1 $ 2,630.1 $ 2,752.4 $ 2,861.3 $ 2,963.9 $ 3,060.8 $ 3,151.3 $ 3,244.4 $ 3,275.6 $ 3,349.1 $ 43,380.3 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.40b, and E.40c. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.7b Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model (All Water Systems) TTHM -Alternative 1 Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Ann. 3% Discount Rate Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 54.0 $ 139.9 $ 248.0 $ 372.2 $ 468.0 $ 543.5 $ 600.5 $ 644.4 $ 678.4 $ 704.4 $ 724.1 $ 738.7 $ 749.0 $ 755.9 $ 759.8 $ 761 .3 $ 760.8 $ 758.5 $ 744.2 $ 737.4 $ 11,943.1 $ 685.9 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 11.9 $ 30.8 $ 54.5 $ 81.7 $ 102.6 $ 118.9 $ 131.2 $ 140.7 $ 147.7 $ 153.1 $ 157.2 $ 160.1 $ 162.0 $ 163.1 $ 163.8 $ 163.8 $ 163.4 $ 162.7 $ 159.7 $ 158.1 $ 2,587.0 $ 148.6 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 118.8 $ 308.1 $ 545.8 $ 818.9 $ 1 ,030.3 $ 1,198.5 $ 1 ,323.9 $ 1 ,423.3 $ 1 ,498.7 $ 1 ,559.8 $ 1 ,604.7 $ 1 ,639.0 $ 1 ,665.3 $ 1 ,680.7 $ 1 ,690.3 $ 1 ,694.7 $ 1 ,694.0 $ 1 ,693.2 $ 1 ,659.7 $ 1 ,647.6 $ 26,495.1 $ 1,521.6 7% Discount Rate Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 44.6 $ 111.3 $ 189.9 $ 274.4 $ 332.2 $ 371.3 $ 394.9 $ 408.0 $ 413.4 $ 413.2 $ 408.9 $ 401.5 $ 391.9 $ 380.7 $ 368.4 $ 355.3 $ 341.8 $ 328.1 $ 309.8 $ 295.5 $ 6,535.3 $ 560.8 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 9.8 $ 24.5 $ 41.7 $ 60.2 $ 72.8 $ 81.2 $ 86.3 $ 89.1 $ 90.0 $ 89.8 $ 88.7 $ 87.0 $ 84.8 $ 82.1 $ 79.4 $ 76.4 $ 73.4 $ 70.4 $ 66.5 $ 63.3 $ 1,417.7 $ 121.7 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 98.2 $ 245.1 $ 418.1 $ 603.8 $ 731 .2 $ 818.8 $ 870.6 $ 901 .0 $ 913.3 $ 915.0 $ 906.2 $ 890.9 $ 871 .3 $ 846.5 $ 819.5 $ 791 .0 $ 761.1 $ 732.3 $ 691 .0 $ 660.3 $ 14,485.1 $ 1,243.0 Notes: Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005. Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibit F.7a. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.7c Mean Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non- Fatal Cases, at 3% Discount Rate, by System Size (All Systems) TTHM-Alternative 1 Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Ann. <100 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 3.3 $ 0.2 100-499 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.4 $ 0.6 $ 0.9 $ 1.1 $ 1.3 $ 1.4 $ 1.5 $ 1.6 $ 1.7 $ 1.7 $ 1.7 $ 1.8 $ 1.8 $ 1.8 $ 1.8 $ 1.8 $ 1.8 $ 1.7 $ 26.7 $ 1.5 500-999 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 0.1 $ 0.3 $ 0.6 $ 0.9 $ 1.2 $ 1.5 $ 1.7 $ 1.9 $ 2.0 $ 2.1 $ 2.2 $ 2.3 $ 2.3 $ 2.4 $ 2.4 $ 2.4 $ 2.4 $ 2.4 $ 2.4 $ 2.3 $ 35.8 $ 2.1 1,000-3,299 $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.6 $ 1.5 $ 2.7 $ 4.1 $ 5.6 $ 7.2 $ 8.3 $ 9.2 $ 9.8 $ 10.3 $ 10.7 $ 11.0 $ 11.2 $ 11.3 $ 11.4 $ 11.5 $ 11.5 $ 11.5 $ 11.3 $ 11.2 $ 172.1 $ 9.9 3,300-9,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.5 $ 3.8 $ 6.8 $ 10.2 $ 13.9 $ 17.8 $ 20.6 $ 22.7 $ 24.3 $ 25.5 $ 26.5 $ 27.2 $ 27.7 $ 28.1 $ 28.3 $ 28.5 $ 28.5 $ 28.5 $ 28.0 $ 27.8 $ 426.0 $ 24.5 10,000- 49,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 6.0 $ 15.6 $ 27.7 $ 41.6 $ 56.8 $ 70.2 $ 79.9 $ 87.3 $ 93.0 $ 97.3 $ 100.7 $ 103.2 $ 105.0 $ 106.3 $ 107.1 $ 107.5 $ 107.6 $ 107.5 $ 105.6 $ 104.7 $ 1,630.7 $ 93.6 50,000- 99,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 5.1 $ 13.1 $ 23.3 $ 34.9 $ 45.3 $ 52.8 $ 58.5 $ 62.9 $ 66.3 $ 68.9 $ 70.9 $ 72.3 $ 73.4 $ 74.1 $ 74.5 $ 74.6 $ 74.6 $ 74.4 $ 73.0 $ 72.4 $ 1,165.2 $ 66.9 100,000- 999,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 22.1 $ 57.3 $ 101.6 $ 152.4 $ 187.6 $ 214.0 $ 234.3 $ 250.0 $ 262.2 $ 271 .5 $ 278.5 $ 283.7 $ 287.3 $ 289.7 $ 291 .0 $ 291 .3 $ 291 .0 $ 290.0 $ 284.4 $ 281 .7 $ 4,621.7 $ 265.4 >1, 000,000 $ $ $ $ $ $ 18.5 $ 47.9 $ 84.9 $ 127.4 $ 156.7 $ 178.8 $ 195.8 $ 208.9 $ 219.1 $ 226.9 $ 232.7 $ 237.1 $ 240.1 $ 242.0 $ 243.1 $ 243.4 $ 243.1 $ 242.3 $ 237.6 $ 235.4 $ 3,861.6 $ 221.8 Total $ $ $ $ $ $ 54.0 $ 139.9 $ 248.0 $ 372.2 $ 468.0 $ 543.5 $ 600.5 $ 644.4 $ 678.4 $ 704.4 $ 724.1 $ 738.7 $ 749.0 $ 755.9 $ 759.8 $ 761 .3 $ 760.8 $ 758.5 $ 744.2 $ 737.4 $ 11,943.1 $ 685.9 Notes: Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and E.40d. 2005. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.7d Mean Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non- Fatal Cases, at 7% Discount Rate, by System Size (All Systems) TTHM-Alternative 1 Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Ann. <100 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 1.8 $ 0.2 100-499 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.9 $ 0.9 $ 0.9 $ 0.9 $ 0.9 $ 0.9 $ 0.9 $ 0.9 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 14.4 $ 1.2 500-999 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 0.1 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.6 $ 0.8 $ 1.0 $ 1.1 $ 1.2 $ 1.2 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.2 $ 1.2 $ 1.2 $ 1.2 $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 1.0 $ 1.0 $ 0.9 $ 19.3 $ 1.7 1,000-3,299 $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.5 $ 1.2 $ 2.1 $ 3.0 $ 4.0 $ 4.9 $ 5.5 $ 5.8 $ 6.0 $ 6.0 $ 6.0 $ 6.0 $ 5.9 $ 5.7 $ 5.5 $ 5.4 $ 5.2 $ 5.0 $ 4.7 $ 4.5 $ 92.9 $ 8.0 3,300-9,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.2 $ 3.0 $ 5.2 $ 7.5 $ 9.8 $ 12.2 $ 13.5 $ 14.4 $ 14.8 $ 15.0 $ 15.0 $ 14.8 $ 14.5 $ 14.2 $ 13.7 $ 13.3 $ 12.8 $ 12.3 $ 11.7 $ 11.1 $ 229.9 $ 19.7 10,000- 49,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 5.0 $ 12.4 $ 21.2 $ 30.7 $ 40.3 $ 48.0 $ 52.5 $ 55.2 $ 56.6 $ 57.1 $ 56.9 $ 56.1 $ 55.0 $ 53.5 $ 51.9 $ 50.2 $ 48.4 $ 46.5 $ 43.9 $ 42.0 $ 883.5 $ 75.8 50,000- 99,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 4.2 $ 10.4 $ 17.8 $ 25.7 $ 32.2 $ 36.1 $ 38.5 $ 39.8 $ 40.4 $ 40.4 $ 40.0 $ 39.3 $ 38.4 $ 37.3 $ 36.1 $ 34.8 $ 33.5 $ 32.2 $ 30.4 $ 29.0 $ 636.6 $ 54.6 100,000- 999,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 18.3 $ 45.6 $ 77.8 $ 112.4 $ 133.1 $ 146.2 $ 154.1 $ 158.3 $ 159.8 $ 159.3 $ 157.3 $ 154.2 $ 150.3 $ 145.9 $ 141.1 $ 136.0 $ 130.7 $ 125.4 $ 118.4 $ 112.9 $ 2,537.1 $ 217.7 >1, 000,000 $ $ $ $ $ $ 15.3 $ 38.1 $ 65.0 $ 93.9 $ 111.2 $ 122.2 $ 128.8 $ 132.3 $ 133.5 $ 133.1 $ 131.4 $ 128.9 $ 125.6 $ 121.9 $ 117.9 $ 113.6 $ 109.2 $ 104.8 $ 98.9 $ 94.3 $ 2,119.8 $ 181.9 Total $ $ $ $ $ $ 44.6 $ 111.3 $ 189.9 $ 274.4 $ 332.2 $ 371 .3 $ 394.9 $ 408.0 $ 413.4 $ 413.2 $ 408.9 $ 401 .5 $ 391 .9 $ 380.7 $ 368.4 $ 355.3 $ 341 .8 $ 328.1 $ 309.8 $ 295.5 $ 6,535.3 $ 560.8 Notes: Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and E.40d. 2005. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Section F.8 Model Outputs - Alternative 2 TTHM as Indicator Lymphoma for Non-Fatal Cases ------- ------- Exhibit F.8a Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model) TTHM-Alternative 2 Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Surface Water Systems Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 434.5 $ 1,157.5 $ 2,112.2 $ 3,262.5 $ 4,215.5 $ 5,029.8 $ 5,714.7 $ 6,308.1 $ 6,831.2 $ 7,298.4 $ 7,720.0 $ 8,103.8 $ 8,455.8 $ 8,780.9 $ 9,083.0 $ 9,365.3 $ 9,630.6 $ 9,881.1 $ 9,987.8 $ 10,187.0 $ 133,559.8 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 66.5 $ 177.2 $ 323.2 $ 499.4 $ 644.5 $ 769.1 $ 873.0 $ 963.2 $ 1,041.6 $ 1,111.8 $ 1,175.5 $ 1,232.5 $ 1,285.8 $ 1,335.5 $ 1,380.8 $ 1,421.6 $ 1,459.8 $ 1,496.1 $ 1,513.6 $ 1,541.6 $ 20,312.4 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 998.7 $ 2,662.4 $ 4,852.2 $ 7,493.8 $ 9,690.5 $ 11,567.7 $ 13,142.1 $ 14,520.6 $ 15,737.9 $ 16,842.6 $ 17,823.5 $ 18,710.9 $ 19,556.6 $ 20,313.4 $ 21,020.2 $ 21,674.9 $ 22,308.1 $ 22,923.7 $ 23,158.2 $ 23,642.5 $ 308,640.7 Ground Water Systems Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 39.5 $ 105.3 $ 192.2 $ 296.9 $ 398.7 $ 493.6 $ 570.8 $ 636.9 $ 694.7 $ 745.9 $ 792.0 $ 833.8 $ 871.9 $ 907.1 $ 939.7 $ 970.0 $ 998.5 $ 1,025.3 $ 1,037.1 $ 1,058.4 $ 13,608.4 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 6.1 $ 16.1 $ 29.4 $ 45.4 $ 61.0 $ 75.5 $ 87.2 $ 97.2 $ 105.9 $ 113.6 $ 120.6 $ 126.8 $ 132.6 $ 138.0 $ 142.8 $ 147.2 $ 151.4 $ 155.2 $ 157.2 $ 160.2 $ 2,069.5 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 90.9 $ 242.3 $ 441.6 $ 682.0 $ 916.5 $ 1,135.1 $ 1,312.7 $ 1,466.0 $ 1,600.4 $ 1,721.4 $ 1,828.5 $ 1,925.1 $ 2,016.6 $ 2,098.4 $ 2,174.6 $ 2,245.0 $ 2,312.9 $ 2,378.7 $ 2,404.7 $ 2,456.5 $ 31,450.0 All Systems Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 474.0 $ 1,262.9 $ 2,304.4 $ 3,559.4 $ 4,614.2 $ 5,523.4 $ 6,285.5 $ 6,945.0 $ 7,525.9 $ 8,044.4 $ 8,512.0 $ 8,937.6 $ 9,327.8 $ 9,688.0 $ 10,022.6 $ 10,335.3 $ 10,629.1 $ 10,906.4 $ 11,024.9 $ 11,245.4 $ 147,168.2 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 72.6 $ 193.4 $ 352.6 $ 544.8 $ 705.4 $ 844.6 $ 960.2 $ 1,060.5 $ 1,147.5 $ 1,225.4 $ 1,296.1 $ 1,359.4 $ 1,418.4 $ 1,473.5 $ 1,523.6 $ 1,568.8 $ 1,611.2 $ 1,651.3 $ 1,670.7 $ 1,701.8 $ 22,381.8 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 1,089.6 $ 2,904.7 $ 5,293.8 $ 8,175.8 $ 10,607.1 $ 12,702.8 $ 14,454.8 $ 15,986.6 $ 17,338.3 $ 18,564.0 $ 19,652.1 $ 20,636.0 $ 21,573.2 $ 22,411.9 $ 23,194.8 $ 23,919.9 $ 24,621.0 $ 25,302.4 $ 25,562.9 $ 26,098.9 $ 340,090.7 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.41b, and E.41c. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.8b Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model (All Water Systems) TTHM-Alternative 2 Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Ann. 3% Discount Rate Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 408.9 $ 1 ,057.7 $ 1 ,873.7 $ 2,809.8 $ 3,536.4 $ 4,109.9 $ 4,540.7 $ 4,871.1 $ 5,124.8 $ 5,318.3 $ 5,463.6 $ 5,569.6 $ 5,643.5 $ 5,690.7 $ 5,715.8 $ 5,722.4 $ 5,713.6 $ 5,692.0 $ 5,586.2 $ 5,532.0 $ 89,980.6 $ 5,167.4 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 62.6 $ 161.9 $ 286.7 $ 430.1 $ 540.6 $ 628.5 $ 693.7 $ 743.8 $ 781.4 $ 810.1 $ 831.9 $ 847.1 $ 858.2 $ 865.5 $ 868.9 $ 868.6 $ 866.1 $ 861.8 $ 846.6 $ 837.2 $ 13,691.3 $ 786.3 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 939.9 $ 2,432.7 $ 4,304.4 $ 6,454.0 $ 8,129.4 $ 9,452.1 $ 10,442.4 $ 11,212.7 $ 1 1 ,806.5 $ 12,273.0 $ 12,613.9 $ 12,859.7 $ 13,052.2 $ 13,164.6 $ 13,227.7 $ 13,243.9 $ 13,235.0 $ 13,205.1 $ 12,952.5 $ 12,838.9 $ 207,840.7 $ 11,935.8 7% Discount Rate Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 338.0 $ 841 .5 $ 1,435.1 $ 2,071.6 $ 2,509.8 $ 2,807.8 $ 2,986.2 $ 3,083.7 $ 3,123.0 $ 3,119.7 $ 3,085.2 $ 3,027.5 $ 2,952.9 $ 2,866.3 $ 2,771.3 $ 2,670.8 $ 2,567.1 $ 2,461.7 $ 2,325.7 $ 2,217.0 $ 49,261.9 $ 4,227.2 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 51.7 $ 128.9 $ 219.6 $ 317.1 $ 383.7 $ 429.3 $ 456.2 $ 470.9 $ 476.2 $ 475.2 $ 469.8 $ 460.5 $ 449.0 $ 435.9 $ 421 .3 $ 405.4 $ 389.1 $ 372.7 $ 352.4 $ 335.5 $ 7,500.5 $ 643.6 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 776.9 $ 1,935.6 $ 3,296.7 $ 4,758.4 $ 5,769.5 $ 6,457.5 $ 6,867.3 $ 7,098.2 $ 7,194.8 $ 7,199.4 $ 7,122.8 $ 6,990.1 $ 6,829.5 $ 6,630.9 $ 6,413.6 $ 6,181.4 $ 5,946.3 $ 5,711.1 $ 5,392.4 $ 5,145.3 $ 113,717.7 $ 9,758.2 Notes: Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005. Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibit F.8a. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.8c Mean Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 3% Discount Rate, by System Size (All Systems) TTHM-Alternative 2 Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Ann. <100 $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.3 $ 0.5 $ 0.8 $ 1.1 $ 1.4 $ 1.7 $ 1.8 $ 1.9 $ 2.0 $ 2.1 $ 2.2 $ 2.2 $ 2.2 $ 2.3 $ 2.3 $ 2.3 $ 2.3 $ 2.2 $ 2.2 $ 34.1 $ 2.0 100-499 $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.9 $ 2.4 $ 4.3 $ 6.4 $ 8.7 $ 11.2 $ 13.0 $ 14.3 $ 15.3 $ 16.0 $ 16.6 $ 17.1 $ 17.4 $ 17.6 $ 17.7 $ 17.8 $ 17.8 $ 17.8 $ 17.5 $ 17.3 $ 267.1 $ 15.3 500-999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.2 $ 3.0 $ 5.4 $ 8.1 $ 11.0 $ 14.1 $ 16.3 $ 18.0 $ 19.3 $ 20.2 $ 21.0 $ 21.5 $ 21.9 $ 22.2 $ 22.4 $ 22.4 $ 22.5 $ 22.4 $ 22.0 $ 21.9 $ 336.8 $ 19.3 1,000-3,299 $ $ $ $ $ $ 5.1 $ 13.3 $ 23.6 $ 35.3 $ 48.2 $ 61.8 $ 71.4 $ 78.6 $ 84.2 $ 88.4 $ 91.6 $ 94.0 $ 95.8 $ 97.0 $ 97.7 $ 98.1 $ 98.2 $ 98.0 $ 96.3 $ 95.5 $ 1,472.1 $ 84.5 3,300-9,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 12.0 $ 30.9 $ 54.8 $ 82.2 $ 112.1 $ 143.8 $ 166.1 $ 182.9 $ 195.7 $ 205.6 $ 213.1 $ 218.6 $ 222.7 $ 225.5 $ 227.2 $ 228.1 $ 228.3 $ 227.9 $ 224.0 $ 222.1 $ 3,423.7 $ 196.6 10,000- 49,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 50.0 $ 129.4 $ 229.2 $ 343.7 $ 468.7 $ 578.5 $ 657.9 $ 718.1 $ 764.3 $ 799.7 $ 826.5 $ 846.4 $ 860.7 $ 870.3 $ 876.2 $ 878.9 $ 878.9 $ 876.7 $ 861.4 $ 853.9 $ 13,369.3 $ 767.8 50,000-99,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 39.2 $ 101.3 $ 179.4 $ 269.1 $ 348.9 $ 406.2 $ 449.6 $ 482.9 $ 508.6 $ 528.1 $ 542.8 $ 553.6 $ 561.1 $ 566.0 $ 568.6 $ 569.4 $ 568.6 $ 566.5 $ 556.0 $ 550.7 $ 8,916.5 $ 512.1 100,000- 999,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 166.5 $ 430.6 $ 762.8 $ 1,144.0 $ 1,406.3 $ 1,603.1 $ 1,753.9 $ 1,870.1 $ 1,959.4 $ 2,027.3 $ 2,078.2 $ 2,114.9 $ 2,140.1 $ 2,155.7 $ 2,163.4 $ 2,164.3 $ 2,159.8 $ 2,150.5 $ 2,109.7 $ 2,088.4 $ 34,448.9 $ 1,978.3 >1, 000,000 $ $ $ $ $ $ 133.9 $ 346.4 $ 613.7 $ 920.3 $ 1,131.3 $ 1,289.6 $ 1,410.9 $ 1,504.4 $ 1,576.2 $ 1,630.9 $ 1,671.8 $ 1,701.3 $ 1,721.6 $ 1,734.2 $ 1,740.3 $ 1,741.1 $ 1,737.4 $ 1,729.9 $ 1,697.1 $ 1,680.0 $ 27,712.2 $ 1,591.4 Total $ $ $ $ $ $ 408.9 $ 1,057.7 $ 1,873.7 $ 2,809.8 $ 3,536.4 $ 4,109.9 $ 4,540.7 $ 4,871.1 $ 5,124.8 $ 5,318.3 $ 5,463.6 $ 5,569.6 $ 5,643.5 $ 5,690.7 $ 5,715.8 $ 5,722.4 $ 5,713.6 $ 5,692.0 $ 5,586.2 $ 5,532.0 $ 89,980.6 $ 5,167.4 Notes: Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005. Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and E.41d. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.8d Mean Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 7% Discount Rate, by System Size (All Systems) TTHM-Alternative 2 Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Ann. <100 $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.4 $ 0.6 $ 0.8 $ 1.0 $ 1.1 $ 1.2 $ 1.2 $ 1.2 $ 1.2 $ 1.2 $ 1.2 $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 1.0 $ 1.0 $ 0.9 $ 0.9 $ 18.4 $ 1.6 100-499 $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.8 $ 1.9 $ 3.3 $ 4.7 $ 6.2 $ 7.7 $ 8.5 $ 9.0 $ 9.3 $ 9.4 $ 9.4 $ 9.3 $ 9.1 $ 8.9 $ 8.6 $ 8.3 $ 8.0 $ 7.7 $ 7.3 $ 6.9 $ 144.3 $ 12.4 500-999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.0 $ 2.4 $ 4.1 $ 6.0 $ 7.8 $ 9.7 $ 10.7 $ 11.4 $ 11.7 $ 11.9 $ 11.8 $ 11.7 $ 11.5 $ 11.2 $ 10.8 $ 10.5 $ 10.1 $ 9.7 $ 9.2 $ 8.8 $ 181.9 $ 15.6 1,000-3,299 $ $ $ $ $ $ 4.3 $ 10.6 $ 18.1 $ 26.1 $ 34.2 $ 42.2 $ 47.0 $ 49.8 $ 51.3 $ 51.9 $ 51.7 $ 51.1 $ 50.1 $ 48.8 $ 47.4 $ 45.8 $ 44.1 $ 42.4 $ 40.1 $ 38.3 $ 795.1 $ 68.2 3,300-9,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 9.9 $ 24.6 $ 42.0 $ 60.6 $ 79.6 $ 98.3 $ 109.2 $ 115.8 $ 119.3 $ 120.6 $ 120.3 $ 118.8 $ 116.5 $ 113.6 $ 110.2 $ 106.5 $ 102.6 $ 98.5 $ 93.3 $ 89.0 $ 1,849.1 $ 158.7 10,000- 49,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 41.3 $ 102.9 $ 175.5 $ 253.4 $ 332.7 $ 395.3 $ 432.7 $ 454.6 $ 465.8 $ 469.1 $ 466.7 $ 460.1 $ 450.3 $ 438.4 $ 424.8 $ 410.2 $ 394.9 $ 379.2 $ 358.6 $ 342.2 $ 7,248.6 $ 622.0 50,000-99,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 32.4 $ 80.6 $ 137.4 $ 198.4 $ 247.6 $ 277.5 $ 295.7 $ 305.7 $ 309.9 $ 309.8 $ 306.5 $ 300.9 $ 293.6 $ 285.1 $ 275.7 $ 265.7 $ 255.5 $ 245.0 $ 231.5 $ 220.7 $ 4,875.2 $ 418.3 100,000- 999,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 137.6 $ 342.6 $ 584.3 $ 843.4 $ 998.1 $ 1,095.2 $ 1,153.4 $ 1,183.8 $ 1,194.0 $ 1,189.3 $ 1,173.5 $ 1,149.6 $ 1,119.8 $ 1,085.8 $ 1,048.9 $ 1,010.2 $ 970.3 $ 930.1 $ 878.3 $ 837.0 $ 18,925.2 $ 1,624.0 >1, 000,000 $ $ $ $ $ $ 110.7 $ 275.6 $ 470.0 $ 678.5 $ 802.9 $ 881.0 $ 927.9 $ 952.3 $ 960.5 $ 956.7 $ 944.0 $ 924.8 $ 900.8 $ 873.5 $ 843.8 $ 812.6 $ 780.6 $ 748.2 $ 706.5 $ 673.3 $ 15,224.2 $ 1,306.4 Total $ $ $ $ $ $ 338.0 $ 841 .5 $ 1,435.1 $ 2,071.6 $ 2,509.8 $ 2,807.8 $ 2,986.2 $ 3,083.7 $ 3,123.0 $ 3,119.7 $ 3,085.2 $ 3,027.5 $ 2,952.9 $ 2,866.3 $ 2,771.3 $ 2,670.8 $ 2,567.1 $ 2,461.7 $ 2,325.7 $ 2,217.0 $49,261.9 $ 4,227.2 Notes: Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005. Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and E.41d. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Section F.9 Model Outputs - Alternative 2 TTHM as Indicator Bronchitis for Non-Fatal Cases ------- ------- Exhibit F.9a Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model) TTHM-Alternative 2 Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Surface Water Systems Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 214.6 $ 572.2 $ 1 ,044.9 $ 1,615.1 $ 2,088.4 $ 2,493.7 $ 2,835.4 $ 3,132.2 $ 3,394.7 $ 3,629.7 $ 3,842.5 $ 4,036.8 $ 4,215.6 $ 4,381.4 $ 4,535.9 $ 4,680.9 $ 4,817.7 $ 4,947.3 $ 4,999.2 $ 5,102.3 $ 66,580.4 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 47.2 $ 125.8 $ 229.5 $ 354.6 $ 457.6 $ 545.5 $ 619.7 $ 683.7 $ 739.2 $ 789.1 $ 834.0 $ 875.0 $ 912.0 $ 945.3 $ 977.8 $ 1 ,006.9 $ 1,035.0 $ 1,061.1 $ 1,072.8 $ 1,093.6 $ 14,405.8 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 471 .9 $ 1 ,260.4 $ 2,299.8 $ 3,553.5 $ 4,597.3 $ 5,498.7 $ 6,250.6 $ 6,917.7 $ 7,499.7 $ 8,037.5 $ 8,515.5 $ 8,956.9 $ 9,372.2 $ 9,741.9 $ 10,090.5 $ 10,419.6 $ 10,727.2 $ 1 1 ,043.6 $ 11,149.3 $ 1 1 ,399.2 $ 147,803.0 Ground Water Systems Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 19.5 $ 52.1 $ 95.1 $ 147.0 $ 197.5 $ 244.7 $ 283.2 $ 316.2 $ 345.2 $ 371 .0 $ 394.2 $ 415.3 $ 434.7 $ 452.6 $ 469.3 $ 484.8 $ 499.5 $ 513.4 $ 519.1 $ 530.1 $ 6,784.6 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 4.3 $ 11.5 $ 20.9 $ 32.3 $ 43.3 $ 53.5 $ 61.9 $ 69.0 $ 75.2 $ 80.7 $ 85.6 $ 90.0 $ 94.0 $ 97.7 $ 101.2 $ 104.3 $ 107.3 $ 110.1 $ 111.4 $ 113.6 $ 1,467.7 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 43.0 $ 114.7 $ 209.3 $ 323.4 $ 434.8 $ 539.6 $ 624.3 $ 698.4 $ 762.6 $ 821.5 $ 873.6 $ 921.5 $ 966.4 $ 1,006.4 $ 1,043.9 $ 1,079.2 $ 1,112.2 $ 1,145.9 $ 1,157.7 $ 1,184.4 $ 15,062.9 All Systems Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 234.1 $ 624.3 $ 1,139.9 $ 1,762.1 $ 2,285.9 $ 2,738.4 $ 3,118.6 $ 3,448.5 $ 3,739.8 $ 4,000.7 $ 4,236.7 $ 4,452.1 $ 4,650.3 $ 4,834.0 $ 5,005.2 $ 5,165.7 $ 5,317.2 $ 5,460.7 $ 5,518.3 $ 5,632.4 $ 73,364.9 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 51.5 $ 137.3 $ 250.4 $ 386.8 $ 500.9 $ 599.0 $ 681 .6 $ 752.8 $ 814.4 $ 869.8 $ 919.6 $ 965.1 $ 1,006.1 $ 1 ,043.0 $ 1 ,079.0 $ 1,111.2 $ 1,142.4 $ 1,171.2 $ 1,184.2 $ 1 ,207.2 $ 15,873.4 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 514.9 $ 1,375.1 $ 2,509.1 $ 3,876.9 $ 5,032.1 $ 6,038.3 $ 6,874.9 $ 7,616.1 $ 8,262.3 $ 8,859.0 $ 9,389.1 $ 9,878.4 $ 10,338.7 $ 10,748.2 $ 11,134.4 $ 11,498.9 $ 11,839.4 $ 12,189.5 $ 12,307.1 $ 12,583.5 $ 162,865.9 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.41b, and E.41c. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.9b Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model (All Water Systems) TTHM-Alternative 2 Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Ann. 3% Discount Rate Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 202.0 $ 522.8 $ 926.9 $ 1 ,391 .0 $ 1 ,752.0 $ 2,037.6 $ 2,252.9 $ 2,418.7 $ 2,546.7 $ 2,644.9 $ 2,719.4 $ 2,774.4 $ 2,813.5 $ 2,839.4 $ 2,854.4 $ 2,860.1 $ 2,858.2 $ 2,849.9 $ 2,796.1 $ 2,770.8 $ 44,831.7 $ 2,574.6 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 44.5 $ 115.0 $ 203.6 $ 305.4 $ 383.9 $ 445.7 $ 492.4 $ 528.0 $ 554.6 $ 575.0 $ 590.2 $ 601.4 $ 608.7 $ 612.6 $ 615.3 $ 615.3 $ 614.1 $ 611.2 $ 600.0 $ 593.9 $ 9,710.8 $ 557.7 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 444.1 $ 1,151.6 $ 2,040.1 $ 3,060.4 $ 3,856.7 $ 4,493.1 $ 4,966.6 $ 5,341.8 $ 5,626.3 $ 5,856.9 $ 6,026.5 $ 6,155.9 $ 6,255.1 $ 6,313.5 $ 6,349.8 $ 6,366.6 $ 6,364.3 $ 6,361.6 $ 6,235.9 $ 6,190.3 $ 99,456.9 $ 5,711.6 7% Discount Rate Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 166.9 $ 416.0 $ 709.9 $ 1,025.5 $ 1,243.4 $ 1,392.1 $ 1,481.6 $ 1,531.2 $ 1,551.9 $ 1,551.5 $ 1,535.6 $ 1,508.1 $ 1,472.2 $ 1,430.2 $ 1,384.0 $ 1,334.9 $ 1,284.2 $ 1,232.6 $ 1,164.1 $ 1,110.4 $ 24,526.1 $ 2,104.6 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 36.8 $ 91.5 $ 155.9 $ 225.1 $ 272.5 $ 304.5 $ 323.8 $ 334.2 $ 338.0 $ 337.3 $ 333.3 $ 326.9 $ 318.5 $ 308.6 $ 298.3 $ 287.2 $ 275.9 $ 264.4 $ 249.8 $ 238.0 $ 5,320.4 $ 456.5 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 367.1 $ 916.3 $ 1 ,562.6 $ 2,256.4 $ 2,737.1 $ 3,069.6 $ 3,266.2 $ 3,381.6 $ 3,428.6 $ 3,435.7 $ 3,403.0 $ 3,346.2 $ 3,273.0 $ 3,180.0 $ 3,078.8 $ 2,971.5 $ 2,859.4 $ 2,751.3 $ 2,596.1 $ 2,480.8 $ 54,361.2 $ 4,664.8 Notes: Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005. Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibit F.9a. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.9c Mean Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non- Fatal Cases, at 3% Discount Rate, by System Size (All Systems) TTHM-Alternative 2 Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Ann. <100 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.6 $ 0.7 $ 0.8 $ 0.9 $ 1.0 $ 1.0 $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 17.0 $ 1.0 100-499 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 0.5 $ 1.2 $ 2.1 $ 3.2 $ 4.3 $ 5.6 $ 6.4 $ 7.1 $ 7.6 $ 8.0 $ 8.3 $ 8.5 $ 8.7 $ 8.8 $ 8.9 $ 8.9 $ 8.9 $ 8.9 $ 8.7 $ 8.7 $ 133.1 $ 7.6 500-999 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 0.6 $ 1.5 $ 2.7 $ 4.0 $ 5.5 $ 7.0 $ 8.1 $ 8.9 $ 9.6 $ 10.1 $ 10.4 $ 10.7 $ 10.9 $ 11.1 $ 11.2 $ 11.2 $ 11.2 $ 11.2 $ 11.0 $ 10.9 $ 167.8 $ 9.6 1,000-3,299 $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.5 $ 6.6 $ 11.7 $ 17.5 $ 23.9 $ 30.7 $ 35.4 $ 39.0 $ 41.8 $ 44.0 $ 45.6 $ 46.8 $ 47.7 $ 48.4 $ 48.8 $ 49.0 $ 49.1 $ 49.1 $ 48.2 $ 47.8 $ 733.7 $ 42.1 3,300-9,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 5.9 $ 15.3 $ 27.1 $ 40.7 $ 55.5 $ 71.3 $ 82.4 $ 90.8 $ 97.3 $ 102.2 $ 106.0 $ 108.9 $ 111.0 $ 112.5 $ 113.5 $ 114.0 $ 114.2 $ 114.1 $ 112.1 $ 111.3 $ 1,706.2 $ 98.0 10,000- 49,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 24.7 $ 63.9 $ 113.4 $ 170.1 $ 232.2 $ 286.8 $ 326.4 $ 356.6 $ 379.8 $ 397.7 $ 411.3 $ 421.6 $ 429.1 $ 434.3 $ 437.6 $ 439.3 $ 439.7 $ 439.0 $ 431.2 $ 427.7 $ 6,662.3 $ 382.6 50,000- 99,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 19.3 $ 50.1 $ 88.8 $ 133.2 $ 172.8 $ 201 .4 $ 223.1 $ 239.8 $ 252.7 $ 262.7 $ 270.2 $ 275.8 $ 279.8 $ 282.4 $ 283.9 $ 284.6 $ 284.4 $ 283.6 $ 278.3 $ 275.8 $ 4,442.7 $ 255.1 100,000- 999,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 82.2 $ 212.9 $ 377.4 $ 566.3 $ 696.7 $ 794.8 $ 870.2 $ 928.6 $ 973.7 $ 1 ,008.2 $ 1 ,034.4 $ 1 ,053.5 $ 1 ,067.0 $ 1 ,075.6 $ 1 ,080.4 $ 1 ,081 .8 $ 1 ,080.4 $ 1 ,076.7 $ 1 ,055.9 $ 1 ,046.0 $ 17,162.6 $ 985.6 >1, 000,000 $ $ $ $ $ $ 66.1 $ 171.2 $ 303.6 $ 455.6 $ 560.4 $ 639.4 $ 700.0 $ 747.0 $ 783.3 $ 811.1 $ 832.1 $ 847.5 $ 858.3 $ 865.3 $ 869.1 $ 870.2 $ 869.1 $ 866.2 $ 849.4 $ 841.5 $ 13,806.3 $ 792.9 Total $ $ $ $ $ $ 202.0 $ 522.8 $ 926.9 $ 1 ,391 .0 $ 1 ,752.0 $ 2,037.6 $ 2,252.9 $ 2,418.7 $ 2,546.7 $ 2,644.9 $ 2,719.4 $ 2,774.4 $ 2,813.5 $ 2,839.4 $ 2,854.4 $ 2,860.1 $ 2,858.2 $ 2,849.9 $ 2,796.1 $ 2,770.8 $ 44,831.7 $ 2,574.6 Notes: Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and E.41d. 2005. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.9d Mean Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non- Fatal Cases, at 7% Discount Rate, by System Size (All Systems) TTHM-Alternative 2 Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Ann. <100 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.4 $ 9.2 $ 0.8 100-499 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 0.4 $ 0.9 $ 1.6 $ 2.3 $ 3.1 $ 3.8 $ 4.2 $ 4.5 $ 4.6 $ 4.7 $ 4.7 $ 4.6 $ 4.5 $ 4.4 $ 4.3 $ 4.2 $ 4.0 $ 3.8 $ 3.6 $ 3.5 $ 71.8 $ 6.2 500-999 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 0.5 $ 1.2 $ 2.0 $ 3.0 $ 3.9 $ 4.8 $ 5.3 $ 5.7 $ 5.8 $ 5.9 $ 5.9 $ 5.8 $ 5.7 $ 5.6 $ 5.4 $ 5.2 $ 5.0 $ 4.9 $ 4.6 $ 4.4 $ 90.6 $ 7.8 1,000-3,299 $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.1 $ 5.2 $ 8.9 $ 12.9 $ 17.0 $ 20.9 $ 23.3 $ 24.7 $ 25.5 $ 25.8 $ 25.7 $ 25.5 $ 25.0 $ 24.4 $ 23.7 $ 22.9 $ 22.1 $ 21.2 $ 20.1 $ 19.2 $ 396.0 $ 34.0 3,300-9,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 4.9 $ 12.2 $ 20.8 $ 30.0 $ 39.4 $ 48.7 $ 54.2 $ 57.5 $ 59.3 $ 60.0 $ 59.9 $ 59.2 $ 58.1 $ 56.7 $ 55.0 $ 53.2 $ 51.3 $ 49.3 $ 46.7 $ 44.6 $ 920.9 $ 79.0 10,000- 49,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 20.4 $ 50.9 $ 86.8 $ 125.4 $ 164.8 $ 196.0 $ 214.7 $ 225.7 $ 231.5 $ 233.3 $ 232.3 $ 229.2 $ 224.5 $ 218.7 $ 212.2 $ 205.0 $ 197.5 $ 189.9 $ 179.5 $ 171.4 $ 3,609.6 $ 309.7 50,000- 99,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 16.0 $ 39.8 $ 68.0 $ 98.2 $ 122.7 $ 137.6 $ 146.7 $ 151.8 $ 154.0 $ 154.1 $ 152.6 $ 149.9 $ 146.4 $ 142.2 $ 137.7 $ 132.8 $ 127.8 $ 122.7 $ 115.9 $ 110.5 $ 2,427.3 $ 208.3 100,000- 999,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 68.0 $ 169.4 $ 289.0 $ 417.5 $ 494.4 $ 543.0 $ 572.3 $ 587.8 $ 593.3 $ 591 .4 $ 584.1 $ 572.7 $ 558.3 $ 541 .8 $ 523.8 $ 504.9 $ 485.4 $ 465.7 $ 439.6 $ 419.2 $ 9,421.6 $ 808.5 >1, 000,000 $ $ $ $ $ $ 54.7 $ 136.2 $ 232.5 $ 335.9 $ 397.8 $ 436.8 $ 460.4 $ 472.9 $ 477.3 $ 475.8 $ 469.9 $ 460.7 $ 449.1 $ 435.8 $ 421.4 $ 406.2 $ 390.5 $ 374.6 $ 353.6 $ 337.2 $ 7,579.2 $ 650.4 Total $ $ $ $ $ $ 166.9 $ 416.0 $ 709.9 $ 1 ,025.5 $ 1 ,243.4 $ 1,392.1 $ 1 ,481 .6 $ 1 ,531 .2 $ 1 ,551 .9 $ 1 ,551 .5 $ 1 ,535.6 $ 1,508.1 $ 1 ,472.2 $ 1 ,430.2 $ 1 ,384.0 $ 1 ,334.9 $ 1 ,284.2 $ 1 ,232.6 $ 1,164.1 $ 1,110.4 $ 24,526.1 $ 2,104.6 Notes: Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and E.41d. 2005. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Section F.10 Model Outputs - Alternative 3 TTHM as Indicator Lymphoma for Non-Fatal Cases ------- ------- Exhibit F.10a Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model) TTHM-Alternative 3 Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Surface Water Systems Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 593.4 $ 1,580.3 $ 2,882.9 $ 4,452.1 $ 5,751.2 $ 6,861.0 $ 7,794.1 $ 8,602.7 $ 9,315.4 $ 9,951.8 $ 10,526.2 $ 11,049.1 $ 11,528.6 $ 11,971.4 $ 12,383.0 $ 12,767.6 $ 13,129.0 $ 13,470.3 $ 13,615.6 $ 13,887.0 $ 182,112.8 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 90.8 $ 242.0 $ 441.2 $ 681.5 $ 879.2 $ 1,049.1 $ 1,190.7 $ 1,313.6 $ 1,420.4 $ 1,516.0 $ 1,602.8 $ 1,680.5 $ 1,753.1 $ 1,820.8 $ 1,882.4 $ 1,938.0 $ 1,990.2 $ 2,039.5 $ 2,063.3 $ 2,101.6 $ 27,696.6 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 1,364.1 $ 3,634.9 $ 6,622.7 $ 10,226.2 $ 13,220.8 $ 15,779.2 $ 17,924.3 $ 19,802.4 $ 21,460.9 $ 22,965.9 $ 24,302.3 $ 25,511.1 $ 26,663.3 $ 27,694.3 $ 28,657.2 $ 29,549.1 $ 30,411.8 $ 31,250.5 $ 31,569.8 $ 32,229.6 $ 420,840.5 Ground Water Systems Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 61.0 $ 162.3 $ 296.2 $ 457.4 $ 614.0 $ 759.9 $ 878.6 $ 980.2 $ 1,069.0 $ 1,147.9 $ 1,218.7 $ 1,282.9 $ 1,341.5 $ 1,395.6 $ 1,445.6 $ 1,492.3 $ 1,536.1 $ 1,577.3 $ 1,595.4 $ 1,628.2 $ 20,939.8 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 9.3 $ 24.9 $ 45.3 $ 70.0 $ 93.9 $ 116.2 $ 134.2 $ 149.7 $ 163.0 $ 174.9 $ 185.6 $ 195.1 $ 204.0 $ 212.3 $ 219.8 $ 226.5 $ 232.8 $ 238.8 $ 241.8 $ 246.4 $ 3,184.4 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 140.1 $ 373.4 $ 680.4 $ 1,050.5 $ 1,411.4 $ 1,747.6 $ 2,020.6 $ 2,256.3 $ 2,462.8 $ 2,648.9 $ 2,813.6 $ 2,962.0 $ 3,102.7 $ 3,228.4 $ 3,345.5 $ 3,453.7 $ 3,558.1 $ 3,659.2 $ 3,699.2 $ 3,778.8 $ 48,393.3 All Systems Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 654.3 $ 1,742.7 $ 3,179.0 $ 4,909.4 $ 6,365.2 $ 7,620.9 $ 8,672.8 $ 9,582.9 $ 10,384.4 $ 11,099.7 $ 11,744.9 $ 12,331.9 $ 12,870.1 $ 13,367.0 $ 13,828.6 $ 14,259.9 $ 14,665.1 $ 15,047.6 $ 15,211.0 $ 15,515.2 $ 203,052.6 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 100.2 $ 266.8 $ 486.5 $ 751.5 $ 973.1 $ 1,165.3 $ 1,324.9 $ 1,463.3 $ 1,583.4 $ 1,690.8 $ 1,788.4 $ 1,875.6 $ 1,957.1 $ 2,033.0 $ 2,102.2 $ 2,164.5 $ 2,223.0 $ 2,278.3 $ 2,305.1 $ 2,348.0 $ 30,880.9 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 1,504.2 $ 4,008.3 $ 7,303.0 $ 11,276.7 $ 14,632.2 $ 17,526.7 $ 19,944.9 $ 22,058.8 $ 23,923.8 $ 25,614.8 $ 27,115.8 $ 28,473.1 $ 29,766.0 $ 30,922.8 $ 32,002.7 $ 33,002.9 $ 33,969.9 $ 34,909.8 $ 35,269.1 $ 36,008.3 $ 469,233.7 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.42b, and E.42c. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.10b Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model (All Water Systems) TTHM-Alternative 3 Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Ann. 3% Discount Rate Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 564.4 $ 1 ,459.5 $ 2,584.8 $ 3,875.6 $ 4,878.4 $ 5,670.7 $ 6,265.4 $ 6,721.2 $ 7,071.3 $ 7,338.2 $ 7,538.6 $ 7,684.9 $ 7,786.6 $ 7,851.7 $ 7,886.2 $ 7,895.3 $ 7,883.2 $ 7,853.2 $ 7,707.3 $ 7,632.4 $ 124,149.0 $ 7,129.6 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 86.4 $ 223.5 $ 395.6 $ 593.2 $ 745.8 $ 867.1 $ 957.1 $ 1 ,026.3 $ 1 ,078.2 $ 1,117.8 $ 1,147.9 $ 1,168.8 $ 1,184.1 $ 1,194.2 $ 1,198.8 $ 1,198.4 $ 1,195.0 $ 1,189.1 $ 1,168.0 $ 1,155.1 $ 18,890.3 $ 1,084.8 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 1,297.6 $ 3,356.9 $ 5,938.0 $ 8,901.9 $ 11,214.4 $ 13,041.5 $ 14,408.6 $ 15,471.6 $ 16,290.9 $ 16,934.4 $ 17,404.6 $ 17,743.5 $ 18,008.9 $ 18,163.9 $ 18,250.7 $ 18,272.9 $ 18,260.5 $ 18,219.1 $ 17,870.5 $ 17,713.7 $ 286,764.2 $ 16,468.3 7% Discount Rate Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 466.5 $ 1,161.2 $ 1,979.7 $ 2,857.3 $ 3,462.2 $ 3,874.1 $ 4,120.4 $ 4,254.9 $ 4,309.2 $ 4,304.7 $ 4,256.9 $ 4,177.3 $ 4,074.4 $ 3,954.8 $ 3,823.7 $ 3,685.0 $ 3,541.8 $ 3,396.4 $ 3,208.7 $ 3,058.8 $ 67,968.0 $ 5,832.4 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 71.4 $ 177.8 $ 303.0 $ 437.4 $ 529.3 $ 592.4 $ 629.4 $ 649.7 $ 657.1 $ 655.7 $ 648.2 $ 635.3 $ 619.6 $ 601 .5 $ 581 .3 $ 559.3 $ 536.9 $ 514.3 $ 486.3 $ 462.9 $ 10,348.6 $ 888.0 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 1,072.5 $ 2,670.9 $ 4,548.0 $ 6,563.1 $ 7,959.0 $ 8,909.7 $ 9,475.7 $ 9,794.3 $ 9,927.5 $ 9,933.8 $ 9,828.0 $ 9,644.8 $ 9,423.1 $ 9,148.9 $ 8,849.0 $ 8,528.6 $ 8,204.2 $ 7,879.6 $ 7,439.9 $ 7,098.9 $ 156,899.6 $ 13,463.6 Notes: Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005. Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibit F.10a. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.10c Mean Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non Fatal Cases, at 3% Discount Rate, by System Size (All Systems) TTHM-Alternative 3 Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Ann. <100 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 0.2 $ 0.5 $ 0.8 $ 1.2 $ 1.7 $ 2.1 $ 2.5 $ 2.7 $ 2.9 $ 3.0 $ 3.2 $ 3.2 $ 3.3 $ 3.3 $ 3.4 $ 3.4 $ 3.4 $ 3.4 $ 3.3 $ 3.3 $ 50.8 $ 2.9 100-499 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 1.4 $ 3.6 $ 6.3 $ 9.5 $ 13.0 $ 16.6 $ 19.2 $ 21.2 $ 22.6 $ 23.8 $ 24.7 $ 25.3 $ 25.8 $ 26.1 $ 26.3 $ 26.4 $ 26.4 $ 26.4 $ 25.9 $ 25.7 $ 396.2 $ 22.8 500-999 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 1.7 $ 4.5 $ 7.9 $ 11.8 $ 16.2 $ 20.7 $ 23.9 $ 26.3 $ 28.2 $ 29.6 $ 30.7 $ 31.5 $ 32.1 $ 32.5 $ 32.7 $ 32.9 $ 32.9 $ 32.8 $ 32.3 $ 32.0 $ 493.1 $ 28.3 1,000-3,299 $ $ $ $ $ $ 7.4 $ 19.1 $ 33.8 $ 50.7 $ 69.1 $ 88.6 $ 102.3 $ 112.7 $ 120.6 $ 126.6 $ 131.2 $ 134.7 $ 137.2 $ 138.9 $ 140.0 $ 140.5 $ 140.6 $ 140.3 $ 137.9 $ 136.8 $ 2,109.0 $ 121.1 3,300-9,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 16.9 $ 43.7 $ 77.4 $ 116.0 $ 158.2 $ 202.9 $ 234.3 $ 257.9 $ 276.0 $ 289.9 $ 300.4 $ 308.3 $ 314.0 $ 317.9 $ 320.4 $ 321 .6 $ 321 .8 $ 321 .2 $ 315.7 $ 313.1 $ 4,827.4 $ 277.2 10,000- 49,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 70.0 $ 181.1 $ 320.8 $ 480.9 $ 655.8 $ 809.4 $ 920.3 $ 1 ,004.4 $ 1 ,068.9 $ 1,118.2 $ 1,155.6 $ 1,183.4 $ 1 ,203.4 $ 1,216.9 $ 1 ,225.0 $ 1 ,228.8 $ 1 ,228.8 $ 1 ,225.7 $ 1 ,204.3 $ 1,193.7 $ 18,695.4 $ 1,073.6 50,000- 99,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 54.2 $ 140.2 $ 248.3 $ 372.2 $ 482.5 $ 561 .6 $ 621 .6 $ 667.6 $ 703.0 $ 730.0 $ 750.3 $ 765.1 $ 775.5 $ 782.2 $ 785.8 $ 786.8 $ 785.7 $ 782.8 $ 768.3 $ 761 .0 $12,324.6 $ 707.8 100,000- 999,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 229.4 $ 593.1 $ 1 ,050.5 $ 1 ,575.0 $ 1 ,935.7 $ 2,206.2 $ 2,413.4 $ 2,573.0 $ 2,695.7 $ 2,789.1 $ 2,858.8 $ 2,909.3 $ 2,943.9 $ 2,965.3 $ 2,975.7 $ 2,977.0 $ 2,970.6 $ 2,957.8 $ 2,901.6 $ 2,872.4 $ 47,393.3 $ 2,721.7 >1, 000,000 $ $ $ $ $ $ 183.2 $ 473.8 $ 839.1 $ 1,258.2 $ 1,546.3 $ 1,762.4 $ 1,927.9 $ 2,055.4 $ 2,153.4 $ 2,228.0 $ 2,283.7 $ 2,324.0 $ 2,351.6 $ 2,368.7 $ 2,377.1 $ 2,378.1 $ 2,373.0 $ 2,362.8 $ 2,317.9 $ 2,294.5 $ 37,859.3 $ 2,174.2 Total $ $ $ $ $ $ 564.4 $ 1 ,459.5 $ 2,584.8 $ 3,875.6 $ 4,878.4 $ 5,670.7 $ 6,265.4 $ 6,721.2 $ 7,071.3 $ 7,338.2 $ 7,538.6 $ 7,684.9 $ 7,786.6 $ 7,851.7 $ 7,886.2 $ 7,895.3 $ 7,883.2 $ 7,853.2 $ 7,707.3 $ 7,632.4 $124,149.0 $ 7,129.6 Notes: Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and E.42d. 2005. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.10d Mean Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 7% Discount Rate, by System Size (All Systems) TTHM-Alternative 3 Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Ann. <100 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 0.1 $ 0.4 $ 0.6 $ 0.9 $ 1.2 $ 1.5 $ 1.6 $ 1.7 $ 1.8 $ 1.8 $ 1.8 $ 1.8 $ 1.7 $ 1.7 $ 1.6 $ 1.6 $ 1.5 $ 1.5 $ 1.4 $ 1.3 $ 27.4 $ 2.4 100-499 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 1.1 $ 2.9 $ 4.9 $ 7.0 $ 9.2 $ 11.4 $ 12.6 $ 13.4 $ 13.8 $ 14.0 $ 13.9 $ 13.8 $ 13.5 $ 13.1 $ 12.7 $ 12.3 $ 11.9 $ 11.4 $ 10.8 $ 10.3 $ 214.0 $ 18.4 500-999 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 1.4 $ 3.6 $ 6.1 $ 8.7 $ 11.5 $ 14.2 $ 15.7 $ 16.7 $ 17.2 $ 17.4 $ 17.3 $ 17.1 $ 16.8 $ 16.4 $ 15.9 $ 15.3 $ 14.8 $ 14.2 $ 13.4 $ 12.8 $ 266.4 $ 22.9 1,000-3,299 $ $ $ $ $ $ 6.1 $ 15.2 $ 25.9 $ 37.4 $ 49.0 $ 60.6 $ 67.3 $ 71.3 $ 73.5 $ 74.3 $ 74.1 $ 73.2 $ 71.8 $ 70.0 $ 67.9 $ 65.6 $ 63.2 $ 60.7 $ 57.4 $ 54.8 $ 1,139.1 $ 97.7 3,300-9,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 14.0 $ 34.8 $ 59.3 $ 85.5 $ 112.3 $ 138.6 $ 154.1 $ 163.3 $ 168.2 $ 170.0 $ 169.6 $ 167.6 $ 164.3 $ 160.1 $ 155.3 $ 150.1 $ 144.6 $ 138.9 $ 131.5 $ 125.5 $ 2,607.4 $ 223.7 10,000- 49,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 57.9 $ 144.1 $ 245.7 $ 354.6 $ 465.5 $ 553.0 $ 605.2 $ 635.8 $ 651.4 $ 656.0 $ 652.6 $ 643.3 $ 629.7 $ 612.9 $ 594.0 $ 573.5 $ 552.1 $ 530.1 $ 501.4 $ 478.4 $ 10,136.8 $ 869.8 50,000- 99,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 44.8 $ 111.5 $ 190.1 $ 274.4 $ 342.4 $ 383.7 $ 408.8 $ 422.6 $ 428.4 $ 428.2 $ 423.7 $ 415.9 $ 405.8 $ 394.0 $ 381 .0 $ 367.2 $ 353.0 $ 338.6 $ 319.9 $ 305.0 $ 6,739.0 $ 578.3 100,000- 999,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 189.6 $ 471 .9 $ 804.6 $ 1,161.2 $ 1 ,373.8 $ 1 ,507.2 $ 1 ,587.2 $ 1 ,628.9 $ 1 ,642.7 $ 1,636.1 $ 1,614.3 $ 1 ,581 .4 $ 1 ,540.4 $ 1 ,493.6 $ 1 ,442.8 $ 1 ,389.5 $ 1 ,334.6 $ 1 ,279.2 $ 1 ,208.0 $ 1,151.1 $ 26,038.0 $ 2,234.3 >1, 000,000 $ $ $ $ $ $ 151.5 $ 377.0 $ 642.7 $ 927.6 $ 1,097.4 $ 1,204.0 $ 1,267.9 $ 1,301.2 $ 1,312.3 $ 1 ,307.0 $ 1 ,289.6 $ 1 ,263.3 $ 1 ,230.5 $ 1,193.1 $ 1,152.5 $ 1,109.9 $ 1 ,066.2 $ 1,021.9 $ 965.0 $ 919.6 $ 20,800.0 $ 1,784.9 Total $ $ $ $ $ $ 466.5 $ 1,161.2 $ 1 ,979.7 $ 2,857.3 $ 3,462.2 $ 3,874.1 $ 4,120.4 $ 4,254.9 $ 4,309.2 $ 4,304.7 $ 4,256.9 $ 4,177.3 $ 4,074.4 $ 3,954.8 $ 3,823.7 $ 3,685.0 $ 3,541.8 $ 3,396.4 $ 3,208.7 $ 3,058.8 $ 67,968.0 $ 5,832.4 Notes: Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and E.42d. 2005. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Section F.11 Model Outputs - Alternative 3 TTHM as Indicator Bronchitis for Non-Fatal Cases ------- ------- Exhibit F.11a Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model) TTHM-Alternative 3 Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Surface Water Systems Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 293.1 $ 781.2 $ 1,426.1 $ 2,204.0 $ 2,849.2 $ 3,401.6 $ 3,867.1 $ 4,271.6 $ 4,629.1 $ 4,949.3 $ 5,239.2 $ 5,503.9 $ 5,747.6 $ 5,973.3 $ 6,183.9 $ 6,381.4 $ 6,567.8 $ 6,744.4 $ 6,815.0 $ 6,955.4 $ 90,784.2 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 64.5 $ 171.8 $ 313.2 $ 483.9 $ 624.4 $ 744.1 $ 845.2 $ 932.4 $ 1,008.1 $ 1 ,076.0 $ 1,137.1 $ 1,193.1 $ 1,243.5 $ 1,288.8 $ 1,333.1 $ 1,372.8 $ 1,411.0 $ 1,446.5 $ 1,462.5 $ 1,490.8 $ 19,642.7 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 644.6 $ 1 ,720.7 $ 3,139.0 $ 4,849.2 $ 6,272.1 $ 7,500.7 $ 8,525.1 $ 9,434.0 $ 10,226.9 $ 10,959.7 $ 11,610.8 $ 12,212.1 $ 12,778.0 $ 13,281.6 $ 13,756.6 $ 14,205.0 $ 14,624.0 $ 15,055.0 $ 15,199.0 $ 15,539.4 $ 201,533.3 Ground Water Systems Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 30.1 $ 80.3 $ 146.5 $ 226.4 $ 304.2 $ 376.7 $ 435.9 $ 486.7 $ 531 .2 $ 570.9 $ 606.6 $ 639.0 $ 668.8 $ 696.3 $ 721 .9 $ 745.9 $ 768.4 $ 789.7 $ 798.6 $ 815.5 $ 10,439.6 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 6.6 $ 17.6 $ 32.2 $ 49.7 $ 66.7 $ 82.4 $ 95.3 $ 106.2 $ 115.7 $ 124.1 $ 131.7 $ 138.5 $ 144.7 $ 150.2 $ 155.6 $ 160.4 $ 165.1 $ 169.4 $ 171.4 $ 174.8 $ 2,258.3 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 66.2 $ 176.8 $ 322.5 $ 498.2 $ 669.6 $ 830.7 $ 961.0 $ 1,074.9 $ 1,173.6 $ 1,264.1 $ 1,344.2 $ 1,417.9 $ 1,486.9 $ 1,548.3 $ 1,606.0 $ 1,660.3 $ 1,711.0 $ 1,762.8 $ 1,781.0 $ 1,821.9 $ 23,177.8 All Systems Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 323.2 $ 861 .4 $ 1 ,572.6 $ 2,430.4 $ 3,153.4 $ 3,778.3 $ 4,303.0 $ 4,758.3 $ 5,160.3 $ 5,520.2 $ 5,845.7 $ 6,143.0 $ 6,416.4 $ 6,669.7 $ 6,905.8 $ 7,127.3 $ 7,336.2 $ 7,534.2 $ 7,613.6 $ 7,770.9 $ 101,223.9 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 71.2 $ 189.5 $ 345.4 $ 533.6 $ 691 .0 $ 826.5 $ 940.5 $ 1 ,038.7 $ 1,123.7 $ 1,200.1 $ 1 ,268.8 $ 1 ,331 .6 $ 1,388.1 $ 1 ,439.0 $ 1 ,488.7 $ 1 ,533.2 $ 1,576.1 $ 1,615.9 $ 1 ,633.9 $ 1 ,665.5 $ 21,901.0 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 710.8 $ 1,897.5 $ 3,461.4 $ 5,347.3 $ 6,941.7 $ 8,331.4 $ 9,486.1 $ 10,508.9 $ 11,400.6 $ 12,223.8 $ 12,955.0 $ 13,630.0 $ 14,264.9 $ 14,829.9 $ 15,362.5 $ 15,865.3 $ 16,335.0 $ 16,817.9 $ 16,980.0 $ 17,361.4 $ 224,711.2 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.42b, and E.42c. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.11 b Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model (All Water Systems) TTHM-Alternative 3 Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Ann. 3% Discount Rate Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 278.8 $ 721 .4 $ 1 ,278.7 $ 1,918.6 $ 2,416.8 $ 2,811.4 $ 3,108.6 $ 3,337.4 $ 3,513.9 $ 3,649.5 $ 3,752.2 $ 3,828.1 $ 3,882.0 $ 3,917.7 $ 3,938.3 $ 3,946.2 $ 3,943.6 $ 3,932.0 $ 3,857.7 $ 3,822.8 $ 61,855.7 $ 3,552.2 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 61.4 $ 158.7 $ 280.8 $ 421.2 $ 529.6 $ 615.0 $ 679.4 $ 728.5 $ 765.2 $ 793.4 $ 814.4 $ 829.8 $ 839.9 $ 845.3 $ 849.0 $ 848.9 $ 847.2 $ 843.3 $ 827.9 $ 819.3 $ 13,398.2 $ 769.4 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 613.1 $ 1,589.1 $ 2,814.5 $ 4,221.2 $ 5,320.2 $ 6,199.3 $ 6,853.0 $ 7,370.7 $ 7,763.2 $ 8,081.4 $ 8,315.3 $ 8,493.8 $ 8,630.5 $ 8,711.0 $ 8,761.0 $ 8,784.2 $ 8,780.9 $ 8,777.1 $ 8,603.6 $ 8,540.6 $ 137,223.8 $ 7,880.5 7% Discount Rate Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 230.5 $ 574.0 $ 979.3 $ 1,414.5 $ 1,715.2 $ 1,920.7 $ 2,044.3 $ 2,112.7 $ 2,141.4 $ 2,140.8 $ 2,118.8 $ 2,080.8 $ 2,031.3 $ 1,973.3 $ 1,909.5 $ 1,841.8 $ 1,771.8 $ 1,700.6 $ 1,606.1 $ 1,532.0 $ 33,839.4 $ 2,903.8 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 50.7 $ 126.2 $ 215.1 $ 310.5 $ 375.9 $ 420.1 $ 446.8 $ 461 .2 $ 466.3 $ 465.4 $ 459.9 $ 451.1 $ 439.5 $ 425.8 $ 411.6 $ 396.2 $ 380.7 $ 364.7 $ 344.7 $ 328.4 $ 7,340.8 $ 629.9 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 506.8 $ 1 ,264.4 $ 2,155.6 $ 3,112.2 $ 3,775.8 $ 4,235.3 $ 4,506.8 $ 4,666.1 $ 4,730.8 $ 4,740.6 $ 4,695.5 $ 4,617.0 $ 4,515.9 $ 4,387.6 $ 4,247.9 $ 4,099.9 $ 3,945.1 $ 3,796.0 $ 3,581.9 $ 3,422.7 $ 75,003.7 $ 6,436.1 Notes: Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005. Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibit F.11a. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.11c Mean Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non- Fatal Cases, at 3% Discount Rate, by System Size (All Systems) TTHM-Alternative 3 Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Ann. <100 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.4 $ 0.6 $ 0.8 $ 1.1 $ 1.2 $ 1.3 $ 1.4 $ 1.5 $ 1.6 $ 1.6 $ 1.6 $ 1.7 $1 7 I . / $ 1.7 $ 1.7 $ 1.7 $ 1.7 $ 1.6 $ 25.3 $ 1.5 100-499 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 0.7 $ 1.8 $ 3.1 $ 4.7 $ 6.4 $ 8.3 $ 9.5 $ 10.5 $ 11.3 $ 11.8 $ 12.3 $ 12.6 $ 12.8 $ 13.0 $ 13.1 $ 13.2 $ 13.2 $ 13.2 $ 13.0 $ 12.9 $ 197.4 $ 11.3 500-999 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 0.9 $ 2.2 $ 3.9 $ 5.9 $ 8.0 $ 10.3 $ 11.9 $ 13.1 $ 14.0 $ 14.7 $ 15.3 $ 15.7 $ 16.0 $ 16.2 $ 16.3 $ 16.4 $ 16.4 $ 16.4 $ 16.1 $ 16.0 $ 245.8 $ 14.1 1,000-3,299 $ $ $ $ $ $ 3.6 $ 9.4 $ 16.7 $ 25.1 $ 34.2 $ 43.9 $ 50.8 $ 55.9 $ 59.9 $ 63.0 $ 65.3 $ 67.1 $ 68.4 $ 69.3 $ 69.9 $ 70.2 $ 70.3 $ 70.3 $ 69.0 $ 68.5 $ 1,051.0 $ 60.4 3,300-9,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 8.3 $ 21.6 $ 38.3 $ 57.4 $ 78.4 $ 100.6 $ 116.2 $ 128.1 $ 137.2 $ 144.2 $ 149.5 $ 153.6 $ 156.5 $ 158.6 $ 160.0 $ 160.7 $ 161.0 $ 160.8 $ 158.0 $ 156.8 $ 2,405.8 $ 138.2 10,000- 49,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 34.6 $ 89.5 $ 158.7 $ 238.1 $ 324.9 $ 401.3 $ 456.6 $ 498.7 $ 531.2 $ 556.1 $ 575.2 $ 589.5 $ 599.9 $ 607.2 $ 611.8 $ 614.2 $ 614.7 $ 613.7 $ 602.8 $ 597.9 $ 9,316.5 $ 535.0 50,000- 99,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 26.8 $ 69.3 $ 122.8 $ 184.3 $ 239.0 $ 278.4 $ 308.4 $ 331.5 $ 349.3 $ 363.0 $ 373.4 $ 381.1 $ 386.6 $ 390.3 $ 392.4 $ 393.3 $ 393.1 $ 391.9 $ 384.6 $ 381.1 $ 6,140.7 $ 352.6 100,000- 999,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 113.3 $ 293.2 $ 519.6 $ 779.7 $ 958.9 $ 1,093.8 $ 1,197.4 $ 1,277.6 $ 1,339.6 $ 1,387.1 $ 1,422.9 $ 1,449.2 $ 1,467.7 $ 1,479.6 $ 1,486.0 $ 1,487.9 $ 1,486.0 $ 1,480.9 $ 1,452.3 $ 1,438.7 $ 23,611.5 $ 1,356.0 >1, 000,000 $ $ $ $ $ $ 90.5 $ 234.2 $ 415.1 $ 622.8 $ 766.0 $ 873.8 $ 956.5 $ 1 ,020.6 $ 1,070.1 $ 1,108.0 $ 1,136.7 $ 1,157.7 $ 1,172.4 $ 1,181.9 $ 1,187.1 $ 1,188.6 $ 1,187.1 $ 1,183.0 $ 1,160.2 $ 1,149.2 $ 18,861.6 $ 1,083.2 Total $ $ $ $ $ $ 278.8 $ 721.4 $ 1,278.7 $ 1,918.6 $ 2,416.8 $ 2,811.4 $ 3,108.6 $ 3,337.4 $ 3,513.9 $ 3,649.5 $ 3,752.2 $ 3,828.1 $ 3,882.0 $ 3,917.7 $ 3,938.3 $ 3,946.2 $ 3,943.6 $ 3,932.0 $ 3,857.7 $ 3,822.8 $ 61,855.7 $ 3,552.2 Notes: Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005. Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and E.42d. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.11d Mean Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non- Fatal Cases, at 7% Discount Rate, by System Size (All Systems) TTHM -Alternative 3 Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Ann. <100 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.6 $ 0.7 $ 0.8 $ 0.9 $ 0.9 $ 0.9 $ 0.9 $ 0.9 $ 0.9 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 13.7 $ 1.2 100-499 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 0.6 $ 1.4 $ 2.4 $ 3.5 $ 4.6 $ 5.6 $ 6.3 $ 6.7 $ 6.9 $ 6.9 $ 6.9 $ 6.8 $ 6.7 $ 6.6 $ 6.4 $ 6.2 $ 5.9 $ 5.7 $ 5.4 $ 5.2 $ 106.6 $ 9.1 500-999 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 0.7 $ 1.8 $ 3.0 $ 4.3 $ 5.7 $ 7.0 $ 7.8 $ 8.3 $ 8.5 $ 8.6 $ 8.6 $ 8.5 $ 8.4 $ 8.2 $ 7.9 $ 7.7 $ 7.4 $ 7.1 $ 6.7 $ 6.4 $ 132.7 $ 11.4 1,000-3,299 $ $ $ $ $ $ 3.0 $ 7.5 $ 12.8 $ 18.5 $ 24.3 $ 30.0 $ 33.4 $ 35.4 $ 36.5 $ 36.9 $ 36.9 $ 36.5 $ 35.8 $ 34.9 $ 33.9 $ 32.8 $ 31.6 $ 30.4 $ 28.7 $ 27.5 $ 567.3 $ 48.7 3,300-9,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 6.9 $ 17.2 $ 29.3 $ 42.3 $ 55.6 $ 68.7 $ 76.4 $ 81.1 $ 83.6 $ 84.6 $ 84.4 $ 83.5 $ 81.9 $ 79.9 $ 77.6 $ 75.0 $ 72.3 $ 69.6 $ 65.8 $ 62.8 $ 1,298.5 $ 111.4 10,000- 49,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 28.6 $ 71.2 $ 121.5 $ 175.5 $ 230.6 $ 274.1 $ 300.3 $ 315.7 $ 323.7 $ 326.2 $ 324.8 $ 320.4 $ 313.9 $ 305.8 $ 296.6 $ 286.6 $ 276.2 $ 265.4 $ 250.9 $ 239.6 $ 5,047.9 $ 433.2 50,000- 99,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 22.1 $ 55.1 $ 94.1 $ 135.9 $ 169.7 $ 190.2 $ 202.8 $ 209.9 $ 212.9 $ 213.0 $ 210.9 $ 207.2 $ 202.3 $ 196.6 $ 190.3 $ 183.5 $ 176.6 $ 169.5 $ 160.1 $ 152.7 $ 3,355.2 $ 287.9 100,000- 999,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 93.7 $ 233.3 $ 398.0 $ 574.8 $ 680.6 $ 747.3 $ 787.5 $ 808.8 $ 816.3 $ 813.7 $ 803.5 $ 787.8 $ 767.9 $ 745.2 $ 720.5 $ 694.5 $ 667.7 $ 640.5 $ 604.6 $ 576.6 $ 12,962.6 $ 1,112.3 >1, 000,000 $ $ $ $ $ $ 74.8 $ 186.3 $ 317.9 $ 459.2 $ 543.7 $ 596.9 $ 629.1 $ 646.1 $ 652.1 $ 650.0 $ 641 .9 $ 629.3 $ 613.5 $ 595.3 $ 575.6 $ 554.8 $ 533.3 $ 511.6 $ 483.0 $ 460.6 $ 10,354.9 $ 888.6 Total $ $ $ $ $ $ 230.5 $ 574.0 $ 979.3 $ 1,414.5 $ 1,715.2 $ 1,920.7 $ 2,044.3 $ 2,112.7 $ 2,141.4 $ 2,140.8 $ 2,118.8 $ 2,080.8 $ 2,031.3 $ 1 ,973.3 $ 1 ,909.5 $ 1,841.8 $ 1,771.8 $ 1 ,700.6 $ 1,606.1 $ 1 ,532.0 $ 33,839.4 $ 2,903.8 Notes: Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005. Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and E.42d. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Section F.12 Model Outputs - Colon Cancer Sensitivity Analysis TTHM as Indicator Lymphoma for Non-Fatal Cases ------- ------- Exhibit F.12a Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model) TTHM -Colon Cancer Sensitivity Analysis Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Surface Water Systems Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 247.4 $ 552.0 $ 914.0 $ 1,331.0 $ 1,584.8 $ 1,804.4 $ 1,982.9 $ 2,136.4 $ 2,270.0 $ 2,387.9 $ 2,493.5 $ 2,589.2 $ 2,676.7 $ 2,757.5 $ 2,832.9 $ 2,903.5 $ 2,970.3 $ 3,033.8 $ 3,054.4 $ 3,104.5 $ 43,627.2 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 37.9 $ 84.5 $ 139.9 $ 203.7 $ 242.3 $ 275.9 $ 302.9 $ 326.2 $ 346.1 $ 363.8 $ 379.7 $ 393.8 $ 407.0 $ 419.4 $ 430.6 $ 440.7 $ 450.3 $ 459.3 $ 462.9 $ 469.8 $ 6,636.8 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 568.8 $ 1,269.6 $ 2,099.8 $ 3,057.2 $ 3,643.0 $ 4,149.9 $ 4,560.0 $ 4,917.7 $ 5,229.7 $ 5,510.7 $ 5,756.9 $ 5,978.1 $ 6,190.6 $ 6,379.2 $ 6,555.9 $ 6,719.9 $ 6,880.5 $ 7,038.3 $ 7,082.2 $ 7,205.0 $ 100,793.1 Ground Water Systems Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 119.5 $ 266.5 $ 441.3 $ 642.6 $ 813.3 $ 966.6 $ 1,071.3 $ 1,163.5 $ 1,243.7 $ 1,313.8 $ 1,376.1 $ 1,432.2 $ 1,483.3 $ 1,530.3 $ 1,573.9 $ 1,614.6 $ 1,653.1 $ 1,689.5 $ 1,701.8 $ 1,730.5 $ 23,827.5 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 18.3 $ 40.8 $ 67.5 $ 98.4 $ 124.3 $ 147.8 $ 163.7 $ 177.7 $ 189.6 $ 200.1 $ 209.5 $ 217.8 $ 225.6 $ 232.7 $ 239.3 $ 245.1 $ 250.6 $ 255.8 $ 257.9 $ 261.9 $ 3,624.4 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 274.6 $ 613.0 $ 1,013.8 $ 1,476.1 $ 1,869.6 $ 2,222.9 $ 2,463.8 $ 2,678.2 $ 2,865.4 $ 3,031.9 $ 3,177.1 $ 3,306.8 $ 3,430.6 $ 3,540.1 $ 3,642.3 $ 3,736.9 $ 3,829.1 $ 3,919.5 $ 3,946.0 $ 4,016.3 $ 55,054.0 All Systems Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 366.9 $ 818.5 $ 1,355.3 $ 1,973.6 $ 2,398.1 $ 2,771.0 $ 3,054.2 $ 3,299.8 $ 3,513.8 $ 3,701.8 $ 3,869.6 $ 4,021.4 $ 4,160.0 $ 4,287.8 $ 4,406.7 $ 4,518.2 $ 4,623.4 $ 4,723.3 $ 4,756.3 $ 4,835.0 $ 67,454.7 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 56.2 $ 125.3 $ 207.4 $ 302.1 $ 366.6 $ 423.7 $ 466.6 $ 503.9 $ 535.8 $ 563.9 $ 589.2 $ 611.6 $ 632.6 $ 652.1 $ 669.9 $ 685.8 $ 700.8 $ 715.1 $ 720.8 $ 731.7 $ 10,261.2 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 843.4 $ 1,882.7 $ 3,113.6 $ 4,533.3 $ 5,512.6 $ 6,372.8 $ 7,023.8 $ 7,595.9 $ 8,095.1 $ 8,542.6 $ 8,934.0 $ 9,285.0 $ 9,621.2 $ 9,919.3 $ 10,198.3 $ 10,456.8 $ 10,709.6 $ 10,957.8 $ 11,028.1 $ 11,221.3 $ 155,847.0 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.43b, and E.43c. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.12b Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model (All Water Systems) TTHM - Colon Cancer Sensitivity Analysis Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Ann. 3% Discount Rate Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 316.5 $ 685.5 $ 1,102.0 $ 1,558.0 $ 1,837.9 $ 2,061.9 $ 2,206.4 $ 2,314.4 $ 2,392.7 $ 2,447.3 $ 2,483.8 $ 2,506.0 $ 2,516.9 $ 2,518.6 $ 2,513.1 $ 2,501.6 $ 2,485.3 $ 2,465.0 $ 2,410.0 $ 2,378.5 $ 41,701.5 $ 2,394.8 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 48.4 $ 105.0 $ 168.6 $ 238.5 $ 281 .0 $ 315.3 $ 337.1 $ 353.4 $ 364.8 $ 372.8 $ 378.2 $ 381.1 $ 382.7 $ 383.1 $ 382.0 $ 379.7 $ 376.7 $ 373.2 $ 365.2 $ 359.9 $ 6,346.9 $ 364.5 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 727.5 $ 1,576.7 $ 2,531.6 $ 3,578.6 $ 4,225.0 $ 4,742.0 $ 5,074.1 $ 5,327.6 $ 5,512.4 $ 5,647.7 $ 5,734.4 $ 5,786.1 $ 5,821.0 $ 5,826.5 $ 5,815.9 $ 5,789.7 $ 5,756.9 $ 5,718.8 $ 5,587.9 $ 5,520.1 $ 96,300.5 $ 5,530.3 7% Discount Rate Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 261.6 $ 545.4 $ 844.0 $ 1,148.7 $ 1,304.4 $ 1,408.6 $ 1,451.0 $ 1,465.2 $ 1,458.1 $ 1,435.6 $ 1,402.5 $ 1,362.2 $ 1,316.9 $ 1,268.6 $ 1,218.5 $ 1,167.6 $ 1,116.6 $ 1,066.1 $ 1,003.3 $ 953.2 $ 23,198.2 $ 1,990.7 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 40.0 $ 83.5 $ 129.2 $ 175.8 $ 199.4 $ 215.4 $ 221 .7 $ 223.7 $ 222.3 $ 218.7 $ 213.6 $ 207.2 $ 200.3 $ 192.9 $ 185.2 $ 177.2 $ 169.3 $ 161.4 $ 152.0 $ 144.3 $ 3,533.1 $ 303.2 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 601.3 $ 1,254.5 $ 1,939.0 $ 2,638.4 $ 2,998.5 $ 3,239.6 $ 3,337.0 $ 3,372.6 $ 3,359.2 $ 3,313.0 $ 3,238.1 $ 3,145.1 $ 3,045.8 $ 2,934.8 $ 2,819.9 $ 2,702.2 $ 2,586.5 $ 2,473.3 $ 2,326.3 $ 2,212.2 $ 53,537.5 $ 4,594.1 Notes: Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005. Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibit F.12a. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.12c Mean Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 3% Discount Rate, by System Size (All Systems) TTHM -Colon Cancer Sensitivity Analysis Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Ann. <100 $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.3 $ 0.7 $ 1.2 $ 1.7 $ 2.2 $ 2.7 $ 2.9 $ 3.1 $ 3.3 $ 3.4 $ 3.4 $ 3.5 $ 3.5 $ 3.5 $ 3.5 $ 3.5 $ 3.5 $ 3.5 $ 3.4 $ 3.4 $ 56.3 $ 3.2 100-499 $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.5 $ 5.4 $ 8.7 $ 12.3 $ 16.1 $ 20.0 $ 21.8 $ 23.2 $ 24.3 $ 25.0 $ 25.5 $ 25.9 $ 26.1 $ 26.2 $ 26.2 $ 26.1 $ 25.9 $ 25.8 $ 25.2 $ 24.9 $ 417.0 $ 23.9 500-999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.8 $ 6.0 $ 9.6 $ 13.6 $ 17.8 $ 22.2 $ 24.1 $ 25.7 $ 26.9 $ 27.7 $ 28.3 $ 28.7 $ 28.9 $ 29.0 $ 29.0 $ 28.9 $ 28.8 $ 28.6 $ 27.9 $ 27.6 $ 462.1 $ 26.5 1,000-3,299 $ $ $ $ $ $ 9.5 $ 20.5 $ 33.0 $ 46.6 $ 61.0 $ 75.9 $ 82.5 $ 87.9 $ 91.9 $ 94.8 $ 96.8 $ 98.1 $ 98.8 $ 99.1 $ 99.1 $ 98.9 $ 98.4 $ 97.7 $ 95.6 $ 94.4 $ 1,580.5 $ 90.8 3,300-9,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 16.8 $ 36.4 $ 58.5 $ 82.7 $ 108.2 $ 134.6 $ 146.4 $ 155.9 $ 163.1 $ 168.1 $ 171.6 $ 173.9 $ 175.2 $ 175.8 $ 175.8 $ 175.3 $ 174.4 $ 173.2 $ 169.5 $ 167.4 $ 2,803.0 $ 161.0 10,000- 49,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 51.0 $ 110.5 $ 177.6 $ 251.1 $ 328.6 $ 385.4 $ 417.0 $ 441.9 $ 460.1 $ 473.0 $ 481.9 $ 487.5 $ 490.7 $ 491.9 $ 491.5 $ 489.8 $ 487.0 $ 483.4 $ 472.9 $ 467.0 $ 7,940.0 $ 456.0 50,000-99,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 32.4 $ 70.1 $ 112.7 $ 159.3 $ 193.5 $ 212.1 $ 226.9 $ 237.8 $ 245.6 $ 251.1 $ 254.7 $ 256.9 $ 257.9 $ 258.1 $ 257.5 $ 256.3 $ 254.6 $ 252.5 $ 246.8 $ 243.6 $ 4,280.0 $ 245.8 100,000- 999,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 120.7 $ 261.5 $ 420.4 $ 594.4 $ 666.2 $ 725.4 $ 770.8 $ 803.3 $ 826.5 $ 842.5 $ 852.9 $ 858.9 $ 861.4 $ 861.0 $ 858.3 $ 853.7 $ 847.6 $ 840.2 $ 821.1 $ 810.1 $ 14,497.0 $ 832.5 >1, 000,000 $ $ $ $ $ $ 80.5 $ 174.4 $ 280.3 $ 396.3 $ 444.2 $ 483.6 $ 513.9 $ 535.6 $ 551.0 $ 561.7 $ 568.7 $ 572.7 $ 574.3 $ 574.0 $ 572.2 $ 569.2 $ 565.1 $ 560.2 $ 547.5 $ 540.1 $ 9,665.6 $ 555.1 Total $ $ $ $ $ $ 316.5 $ 685.5 $ 1,102.0 $ 1,558.0 $ 1,837.9 $ 2,061.9 $ 2,206.4 $ 2,314.4 $ 2,392.7 $ 2,447.3 $ 2,483.8 $ 2,506.0 $ 2,516.9 $ 2,518.6 $ 2,513.1 $ 2,501.6 $ 2,485.3 $ 2,465.0 $ 2,410.0 $ 2,378.5 $ 41,701.5 $ 2,394.8 Notes: Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005. Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and E.43d. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.12d Mean Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTPfor Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 7% Discount Rate, by System Size (All Systems) TTHM -Colon Cancer Sensitivity Analysis Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Ann. <100 $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.3 $ 0.6 $ 0.9 $ 1.2 $ 1.5 $ 1.8 $ 1.9 $ 2.0 $ 2.0 $ 2.0 $ 1.9 $ 1.9 $ 1.8 $ 1.8 $ 1.7 $ 1.6 $ 1.6 $ 1.5 $ 1.4 $ 1.3 $ 30.9 $ 2.7 100-499 $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.1 $ 4.3 $ 6.7 $ 9.1 $ 11.4 $ 13.7 $ 14.3 $ 14.7 $ 14.8 $ 14.7 $ 14.4 $ 14.1 $ 13.6 $ 13.2 $ 12.7 $ 12.2 $ 11.7 $ 11.1 $ 10.5 $ 10.0 $ 229.1 $ 19.7 500-999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.3 $ 4.8 $ 7.4 $ 10.1 $ 12.7 $ 15.2 $ 15.9 $ 16.3 $ 16.4 $ 16.3 $ 16.0 $ 15.6 $ 15.1 $ 14.6 $ 14.1 $ 13.5 $ 12.9 $ 12.4 $ 11.6 $ 11.1 $ 253.9 $ 21.8 1,000-3,299 $ $ $ $ $ $ 7.8 $ 16.3 $ 25.3 $ 34.4 $ 43.3 $ 51.8 $ 54.3 $ 55.6 $ 56.0 $ 55.6 $ 54.6 $ 53.3 $ 51.7 $ 49.9 $ 48.1 $ 46.1 $ 44.2 $ 42.2 $ 39.8 $ 37.8 $ 868.4 $ 74.5 3,300-9,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 13.9 $ 29.0 $ 44.8 $ 61.0 $ 76.8 $ 91.9 $ 96.3 $ 98.7 $ 99.4 $ 98.6 $ 96.9 $ 94.5 $ 91.7 $ 88.6 $ 85.3 $ 81.8 $ 78.4 $ 74.9 $ 70.6 $ 67.1 $ 1,540.0 $ 132.2 10,000- 49,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 42.2 $ 87.9 $ 136.0 $ 185.1 $ 233.2 $ 263.3 $ 274.3 $ 279.7 $ 280.4 $ 277.5 $ 272.1 $ 265.0 $ 256.8 $ 247.8 $ 238.3 $ 228.6 $ 218.8 $ 209.1 $ 196.9 $ 187.2 $ 4,380.1 $ 375.9 50,000-99,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 26.7 $ 55.8 $ 86.3 $ 117.4 $ 137.3 $ 144.9 $ 149.2 $ 150.6 $ 149.7 $ 147.3 $ 143.8 $ 139.6 $ 135.0 $ 130.0 $ 124.8 $ 119.6 $ 114.4 $ 109.2 $ 102.8 $ 97.6 $ 2,381.9 $ 204.4 100,000- 999,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 99.8 $ 208.1 $ 322.0 $ 438.2 $ 472.8 $ 495.6 $ 506.9 $ 508.6 $ 503.7 $ 494.2 $ 481.6 $ 466.9 $ 450.7 $ 433.7 $ 416.1 $ 398.4 $ 380.8 $ 363.4 $ 341.8 $ 324.6 $ 8,108.0 $ 695.8 >1, 000,000 $ $ $ $ $ $ 66.5 $ 138.7 $ 214.7 $ 292.2 $ 315.3 $ 330.4 $ 338.0 $ 339.1 $ 335.8 $ 329.5 $ 321.1 $ 311.3 $ 300.5 $ 289.1 $ 277.5 $ 265.7 $ 253.9 $ 242.3 $ 227.9 $ 216.5 $ 5,405.9 $ 463.9 Total $ $ $ $ $ $ 261.6 $ 545.4 $ 844.0 $ 1,148.7 $ 1,304.4 $ 1,408.6 $ 1,451.0 $ 1,465.2 $ 1,458.1 $ 1,435.6 $ 1,402.5 $ 1,362.2 $ 1,316.9 $ 1,268.6 $ 1,218.5 $ 1,167.6 $ 1,116.6 $ 1,066.1 $ 1,003.3 $ 953.2 $ 23,198.2 $ 1,990.7 Notes: Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005. Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and E.43d. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Section F.13 Model Outputs - Colon Cancer Sensitivity Analysis TTHM as Indicator Bronchitis for Non-Fatal Cases ------- ------- Exhibit F.13a Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model) TTHM -Colon Cancer Sensitivity Analysis Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Surface Water Systems Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 122.2 $ 272.9 $ 452.2 $ 658.9 $ 785.1 $ 894.6 $ 983.8 $ 1,060.8 $ 1,128.0 $ 1,187.6 $ 1,241.1 $ 1,289.8 $ 1,334.5 $ 1,375.9 $ 1,414.7 $ 1,451.2 $ 1,485.9 $ 1,519.0 $ 1,528.8 $ 1,554.9 $ 21,741.9 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 26.9 $ 60.0 $ 99.3 $ 144.7 $ 172.0 $ 195.7 $ 215.0 $ 231.6 $ 245.6 $ 258.2 $ 269.4 $ 279.6 $ 288.7 $ 296.9 $ 305.0 $ 312.2 $ 319.2 $ 325.8 $ 328.1 $ 333.3 $ 4,707.1 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 268.8 $ 601.0 $ 995.2 $ 1,449.7 $ 1,728.3 $ 1,972.7 $ 2,168.8 $ 2,342.8 $ 2,492.2 $ 2,629.8 $ 2,750.4 $ 2,861.7 $ 2,966.8 $ 3,059.3 $ 3,147.1 $ 3,230.4 $ 3,308.6 $ 3,390.7 $ 3,409.6 $ 3,473.9 $ 48,247.8 Ground Water Systems Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 59.0 $ 131.7 $ 218.3 $ 318.1 $ 402.9 $ 479.2 $ 531.6 $ 577.7 $ 618.1 $ 653.4 $ 684.9 $ 713.4 $ 739.5 $ 763.6 $ 786.0 $ 807.0 $ 826.9 $ 845.9 $ 851.8 $ 866.7 $ 11,875.9 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 13.0 $ 29.0 $ 47.9 $ 69.8 $ 88.3 $ 104.8 $ 116.2 $ 126.1 $ 134.6 $ 142.1 $ 148.7 $ 154.6 $ 160.0 $ 164.7 $ 169.4 $ 173.6 $ 177.7 $ 181.4 $ 182.8 $ 185.8 $ 2,570.5 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 129.8 $ 290.2 $ 480.5 $ 699.9 $ 886.9 $ 1,056.7 $ 1,171.8 $ 1,275.9 $ 1,365.5 $ 1,446.9 $ 1,517.9 $ 1,583.0 $ 1,644.1 $ 1,697.8 $ 1,748.5 $ 1,796.4 $ 1,841.3 $ 1,888.2 $ 1,899.8 $ 1,936.4 $ 26,357.3 All Systems Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 181.2 $ 404.6 $ 670.5 $ 977.0 $ 1,188.0 $ 1,373.8 $ 1,515.4 $ 1,638.5 $ 1,746.1 $ 1,841.0 $ 1,926.0 $ 2,003.2 $ 2,074.0 $ 2,139.5 $ 2,200.7 $ 2,258.3 $ 2,312.9 $ 2,364.9 $ 2,380.7 $ 2,421.7 $ 33,617.7 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 39.9 $ 89.0 $ 147.3 $ 214.5 $ 260.3 $ 300.5 $ 331.2 $ 357.7 $ 380.2 $ 400.2 $ 418.0 $ 434.2 $ 448.7 $ 461.6 $ 474.4 $ 485.8 $ 496.9 $ 507.2 $ 510.9 $ 519.0 $ 7,277.6 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 398.5 $ 891.2 $ 1,475.7 $ 2,149.6 $ 2,615.2 $ 3,029.3 $ 3,340.6 $ 3,618.7 $ 3,857.6 $ 4,076.7 $ 4,268.4 $ 4,444.7 $ 4,610.8 $ 4,757.1 $ 4,895.5 $ 5,026.9 $ 5,149.9 $ 5,279.0 $ 5,309.4 $ 5,410.3 $ 74,605.2 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.43b, and E.43c. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.13b Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model (All Water Systems) TTHM - Colon Cancer Sensitivity Analysis Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Ann. 3% Discount Rate Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 156.3 $ 338.9 $ 545.1 $ 771 .3 $ 910.5 $ 1 ,022.2 $ 1 ,094.7 $ 1,149.2 $ 1,189.0 $ 1,217.1 $ 1 ,236.2 $ 1 ,248.3 $ 1 ,254.8 $ 1 ,256.7 $ 1 ,255.0 $ 1 ,250.3 $ 1 ,243.3 $ 1 ,234.2 $ 1 ,206.3 $ 1,191.3 $ 20,770.9 $ 1,192.8 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 34.4 $ 74.5 $ 119.7 $ 169.3 $ 199.5 $ 223.6 $ 239.3 $ 250.9 $ 258.9 $ 264.6 $ 268.3 $ 270.6 $ 271.5 $ 271.1 $ 270.5 $ 269.0 $ 267.1 $ 264.7 $ 258.9 $ 255.3 $ 4,501.9 $ 258.5 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 343.8 $ 746.4 $ 1,199.9 $ 1 ,696.9 $ 2,004.4 $ 2,254.1 $ 2,413.4 $ 2,538.1 $ 2,626.8 $ 2,695.1 $ 2,739.7 $ 2,769.8 $ 2,789.6 $ 2,794.3 $ 2,791.9 $ 2,783.2 $ 2,768.3 $ 2,755.0 $ 2,690.2 $ 2,661.5 $ 46,062.5 $ 2,645.3 7% Discount Rate Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 129.2 $ 269.6 $ 417.5 $ 568.6 $ 646.2 $ 698.4 $ 719.9 $ 727.5 $ 724.6 $ 714.0 $ 698.1 $ 678.6 $ 656.6 $ 633.0 $ 608.5 $ 583.6 $ 558.6 $ 533.8 $ 502.2 $ 477.4 $ 11,545.8 $ 990.8 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 28.4 $ 59.3 $ 91.7 $ 124.8 $ 141.6 $ 152.8 $ 157.3 $ 158.8 $ 157.8 $ 155.2 $ 151.5 $ 147.1 $ 142.0 $ 136.6 $ 131.2 $ 125.5 $ 120.0 $ 114.5 $ 107.8 $ 102.3 $ 2,506.3 $ 215.1 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 284.1 $ 593.9 $ 919.0 $ 1,251.1 $ 1 ,422.5 $ 1 ,540.0 $ 1,587.1 $ 1 ,606.7 $ 1 ,600.8 $ 1 ,581 .0 $ 1 ,547.0 $ 1 ,505.6 $ 1 ,459.7 $ 1 ,407.4 $ 1 ,353.7 $ 1 ,299.0 $ 1 ,243.8 $ 1,191.5 $ 1,120.0 $ 1 ,066.6 $ 25,580.6 $ 2,195.1 Notes: Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005. Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibit F.13a. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.13c Mean Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 3% Discount Rate, by System Size (All Systems) TTHM - Colon Cancer Sensitivity Analysis Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Ann. <100 $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.4 $ 0.6 $ 0.8 $ 1.1 $ 1.3 $ 1.5 $ 1.6 $ 1.6 $ 1.7 $ 1.7 $ 1.7 $ 1.8 $ 1.8 $ 1.8 $ 1.8 $ 1.8 $ 1.7 $ 1.7 $ 1.7 $ 28.0 $ 1.6 100499 $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.2 $ 2.7 $ 4.3 $ 6.1 $ 8.0 $ 9.9 $ 10.8 $ 11.5 $ 12.1 $ 12.4 $ 12.7 $ 12.9 $ 13.0 $ 13.1 $ 13.1 $ 13.0 $ 13.0 $ 12.9 $ 12.6 $ 12.5 $ 207.7 $ 11.9 500-999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.4 $ 3.0 $ 4.8 $ 6.7 $ 8.8 $ 11.0 $ 12.0 $ 12.8 $ 13.4 $ 13.8 $ 14.1 $ 14.3 $ 14.4 $ 14.5 $ 14.5 $ 14.4 $ 14.4 $ 14.3 $ 14.0 $ 13.8 $ 230.2 $ 13.2 1,000-3,299 $ $ $ $ $ $ 4.7 $ 10.1 $ 16.3 $ 23.1 $ 30.2 $ 37.6 $ 41.0 $ 43.6 $ 45.7 $ 47.1 $ 48.2 $ 48.8 $ 49.3 $ 49.5 $ 49.5 $ 49.4 $ 49.2 $ 48.9 $ 47.8 $ 47.3 $ 787.4 $ 45.2 3,300-9,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 8.3 $ 18.0 $ 28.9 $ 40.9 $ 53.6 $ 66.7 $ 72.6 $ 77.4 $ 81.0 $ 83.6 $ 85.4 $ 86.6 $ 87.4 $ 87.7 $ 87.8 $ 87.6 $ 87.3 $ 86.7 $ 84.8 $ 83.9 $ 1,396.4 $ 80.2 10,000- 49,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 25.2 $ 54.6 $ 87.9 $ 124.3 $ 162.8 $ 191.1 $ 206.9 $ 219.4 $ 228.7 $ 235.3 $ 239.8 $ 242.9 $ 244.6 $ 245.4 $ 245.4 $ 244.8 $ 243.6 $ 242.1 $ 236.7 $ 233.9 $ 3,955.4 $ 227.2 50,000- 99,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 16.0 $ 34.6 $ 55.7 $ 78.8 $ 95.9 $ 105.2 $ 112.6 $ 118.1 $ 122.1 $ 124.9 $ 126.8 $ 128.0 $ 128.6 $ 128.8 $ 128.6 $ 128.1 $ 127.3 $ 126.4 $ 123.5 $ 122.0 $ 2,131.8 $ 122.4 100,000- 999,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 59.6 $ 129.3 $ 208.0 $ 294.3 $ 330.1 $ 359.6 $ 382.4 $ 398.9 $ 410.7 $ 419.0 $ 424.5 $ 427.9 $ 429.4 $ 429.6 $ 428.6 $ 426.7 $ 424.0 $ 420.7 $ 411.0 $ 405.7 $ 7,220.0 $ 414.6 >1, 000,000 $ $ $ $ $ $ 39.8 $ 86.2 $ 138.7 $ 196.2 $ 220.1 $ 239.8 $ 255.0 $ 266.0 $ 273.8 $ 279.4 $ 283.0 $ 285.3 $ 286.3 $ 286.4 $ 285.8 $ 284.5 $ 282.7 $ 280.5 $ 274.0 $ 270.5 $ 4,813.8 $ 276.4 Total $ $ $ $ $ $ 156.3 $ 338.9 $ 545.1 $ 771 .3 $ 910.5 $ 1,022.2 $ 1,094.7 $ 1,149.2 $ 1,189.0 $ 1,217.1 $ 1,236.2 $ 1,248.3 $ 1,254.8 $ 1,256.7 $ 1,255.0 $ 1,250.3 $ 1,243.3 $ 1,234.2 $ 1,206.3 $ 1,191.3 $ 20,770.9 $ 1,192.8 Notes: Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005. Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and E.43d. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.13d Mean Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 7% Discount Rate, by System Size (All Systems) TTHM - Colon Cancer Sensitivity Analysis Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Ann. <100 $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.6 $ 0.8 $ 0.9 $ 1.0 $ 1.0 $ 1.0 $ 1.0 $ 1.0 $ 0.9 $ 0.9 $ 0.9 $ 0.9 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 15.4 $ 1.3 100-499 $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.0 $ 2.1 $ 3.3 $ 4.5 $ 5.7 $ 6.8 $ 7.1 $ 7.3 $ 7.3 $ 7.3 $ 7.2 $ 7.0 $ 6.8 $ 6.6 $ 6.3 $ 6.1 $ 5.8 $ 5.6 $ 5.3 $ 5.0 $ 114.1 $ 9.8 500-999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.1 $ 2.4 $ 3.7 $ 5.0 $ 6.3 $ 7.5 $ 7.9 $ 8.1 $ 8.1 $ 8.1 $ 8.0 $ 7.8 $ 7.5 $ 7.3 $ 7.0 $ 6.7 $ 6.5 $ 6.2 $ 5.8 $ 5.5 $ 126.4 $ 10.8 1,000-3,299 $ $ $ $ $ $ 3.9 $ 8.1 $ 12.5 $ 17.0 $ 21.5 $ 25.7 $ 26.9 $ 27.6 $ 27.8 $ 27.7 $ 27.2 $ 26.6 $ 25.8 $ 24.9 $ 24.0 $ 23.1 $ 22.1 $ 21.1 $ 19.9 $ 19.0 $ 432.3 $ 37.1 3,300-9,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 6.9 $ 14.3 $ 22.2 $ 30.2 $ 38.1 $ 45.6 $ 47.8 $ 49.0 $ 49.4 $ 49.0 $ 48.2 $ 47.1 $ 45.7 $ 44.2 $ 42.6 $ 40.9 $ 39.2 $ 37.5 $ 35.3 $ 33.6 $ 766.7 $ 65.8 10,000-49,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 20.8 $ 43.4 $ 67.3 $ 91.6 $ 115.5 $ 130.5 $ 136.1 $ 138.9 $ 139.3 $ 138.0 $ 135.4 $ 132.0 $ 128.0 $ 123.6 $ 119.0 $ 114.3 $ 109.5 $ 104.7 $ 98.6 $ 93.7 $ 2,180.4 $ 187.1 50,000- 99,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 13.2 $ 27.6 $ 42.7 $ 58.1 $ 68.0 $ 71.8 $ 74.0 $ 74.8 $ 74.4 $ 73.2 $ 71.6 $ 69.6 $ 67.3 $ 64.9 $ 62.3 $ 59.8 $ 57.2 $ 54.7 $ 51.4 $ 48.9 $ 1,185.5 $ 101.7 100,000- 999,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 49.3 $ 102.9 $ 159.3 $ 216.9 $ 234.2 $ 245.7 $ 251.5 $ 252.5 $ 250.3 $ 245.8 $ 239.7 $ 232.6 $ 224.7 $ 216.4 $ 207.8 $ 199.2 $ 190.5 $ 181.9 $ 171.1 $ 162.6 $ 4,034.9 $ 346.2 >1, 000,000 $ $ $ $ $ $ 32.9 $ 68.6 $ 106.2 $ 144.6 $ 156.2 $ 163.8 $ 167.7 $ 168.4 $ 166.9 $ 163.9 $ 159.8 $ 155.1 $ 149.8 $ 144.3 $ 138.6 $ 132.8 $ 127.0 $ 121.3 $ 114.1 $ 108.4 $ 2,690.2 $ 230.8 Total $ $ $ $ $ $ 129.2 $ 269.6 $ 417.5 $ 568.6 $ 646.2 $ 698.4 $ 719.9 $ 727.5 $ 724.6 $ 714.0 $ 698.1 $ 678.6 $ 656.6 $ 633.0 $ 608.5 $ 583.6 $ 558.6 $ 533.8 $ 502.2 $ 477.4 $ 11,545.8 $ 990.8 Notes: Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005. Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and E.43d. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Section F.14 Model Outputs - Rectal Cancer Sensitivity Analysis TTHM as Indicator Lymphoma for Non-Fatal Cases ------- ------- Exhibit F.14a Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model) TTHM - Rectal Cancer Sensitivity Analysis Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Surface Water Systems Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 84.6 $ 188.7 $ 312.4 $ 454.9 $ 541.7 $ 616.7 $ 677.7 $ 730.2 $ 775.9 $ 816.2 $ 852.3 $ 885.0 $ 914.9 $ 942.5 $ 968.2 $ 992.4 $ 1,015.2 $ 1,036.9 $ 1,044.0 $ 1,061.1 $ 14,911.5 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 12.9 $ 28.9 $ 47.8 $ 69.6 $ 82.8 $ 94.3 $ 103.5 $ 111.5 $ 118.3 $ 124.3 $ 129.8 $ 134.6 $ 139.1 $ 143.3 $ 147.2 $ 150.6 $ 153.9 $ 157.0 $ 158.2 $ 160.6 $ 2,268.4 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 194.4 $ 434.0 $ 717.7 $ 1,044.9 $ 1,245.2 $ 1,418.4 $ 1,558.6 $ 1,680.8 $ 1,787.5 $ 1,883.5 $ 1,967.7 $ 2,043.3 $ 2,115.9 $ 2,180.4 $ 2,240.8 $ 2,296.8 $ 2,351.7 $ 2,405.7 $ 2,420.6 $ 2,462.6 $ 34,450.4 Ground Water Systems Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 40.8 $ 91.1 $ 150.8 $ 219.6 $ 278.0 $ 330.4 $ 366.2 $ 397.7 $ 425.1 $ 449.1 $ 470.3 $ 489.5 $ 507.0 $ 523.0 $ 537.9 $ 551.9 $ 565.0 $ 577.4 $ 581.7 $ 591.5 $ 8,144.1 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 6.3 $ 13.9 $ 23.1 $ 33.6 $ 42.5 $ 50.5 $ 55.9 $ 60.7 $ 64.8 $ 68.4 $ 71.6 $ 74.5 $ 77.1 $ 79.6 $ 81.8 $ 83.8 $ 85.6 $ 87.4 $ 88.1 $ 89.5 $ 1,238.8 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 93.9 $ 209.5 $ 346.5 $ 504.5 $ 639.0 $ 759.8 $ 842.1 $ 915.4 $ 979.4 $ 1,036.3 $ 1,085.9 $ 1,130.3 $ 1,172.5 $ 1,210.0 $ 1,244.9 $ 1,277.3 $ 1,308.8 $ 1,339.6 $ 1,348.7 $ 1,372.7 $ 18,817.1 All Systems Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 125.4 $ 279.8 $ 463.2 $ 674.6 $ 819.6 $ 947.1 $ 1,043.9 $ 1,127.9 $ 1,201.0 $ 1,265.2 $ 1,322.6 $ 1,374.5 $ 1,421.9 $ 1,465.5 $ 1,506.2 $ 1,544.3 $ 1,580.2 $ 1,614.4 $ 1,625.7 $ 1,652.6 $ 23,055.6 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 19.2 $ 42.8 $ 70.9 $ 103.3 $ 125.3 $ 144.8 $ 159.5 $ 172.2 $ 183.1 $ 192.7 $ 201.4 $ 209.1 $ 216.2 $ 222.9 $ 229.0 $ 234.4 $ 239.5 $ 244.4 $ 246.4 $ 250.1 $ 3,507.2 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 288.3 $ 643.5 $ 1,064.2 $ 1,549.4 $ 1,884.2 $ 2,178.2 $ 2,400.7 $ 2,596.2 $ 2,766.8 $ 2,919.8 $ 3,053.6 $ 3,173.5 $ 3,288.5 $ 3,390.3 $ 3,485.7 $ 3,574.1 $ 3,660.5 $ 3,745.3 $ 3,769.3 $ 3,835.4 $ 53,267.5 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.44b, and E.44c. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.14b Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model (All Water Systems) TTHM - Rectal Cancer Sensitivity Analysis Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Ann. 3% Discount Rate Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 108.2 $ 234.3 $ 376.7 $ 532.5 $ 628.2 $ 704.7 $ 754.1 $ 791.1 $ 817.8 $ 836.5 $ 848.9 $ 856.5 $ 860.2 $ 860.9 $ 859.0 $ 855.0 $ 849.5 $ 842.5 $ 823.7 $ 813.0 $ 14,253.3 $ 818.5 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 16.6 $ 35.9 $ 57.6 $ 81.5 $ 96.0 $ 107.8 $ 115.2 $ 120.8 $ 124.7 $ 127.4 $ 129.3 $ 130.3 $ 130.8 $ 130.9 $ 130.6 $ 129.8 $ 128.8 $ 127.6 $ 124.8 $ 123.0 $ 2,169.3 $ 124.6 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 248.7 $ 538.9 $ 865.3 $ 1,223.1 $ 1,444.1 $ 1 ,620.8 $ 1 ,734.3 $ 1 ,820.9 $ 1,884.1 $ 1 ,930.3 $ 1 ,960.0 $ 1 ,977.6 $ 1 ,989.6 $ 1,991.5 $ 1 ,987.8 $ 1 ,978.9 $ 1 ,967.7 $ 1 ,954.6 $ 1 ,909.9 $ 1 ,886.7 $ 32,914.9 $ 1,890.2 7% Discount Rate Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 89.4 $ 186.4 $ 288.5 $ 392.6 $ 445.8 $ 481.5 $ 496.0 $ 500.8 $ 498.4 $ 490.7 $ 479.4 $ 465.6 $ 450.1 $ 433.6 $ 416.5 $ 399.1 $ 381.7 $ 364.4 $ 342.9 $ 325.8 $ 7,929.0 $ 680.4 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 13.7 $ 28.5 $ 44.1 $ 60.1 $ 68.2 $ 73.6 $ 75.8 $ 76.5 $ 76.0 $ 74.7 $ 73.0 $ 70.8 $ 68.4 $ 65.9 $ 63.3 $ 60.6 $ 57.9 $ 55.2 $ 52.0 $ 49.3 $ 1,207.6 $ 103.6 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 205.5 $ 428.8 $ 662.7 $ 901.8 $ 1,024.9 $ 1,107.3 $ 1,140.5 $ 1,152.7 $ 1,148.1 $ 1,132.3 $ 1,106.8 $ 1,075.0 $ 1,041.0 $ 1,003.1 $ 963.8 $ 923.6 $ 884.0 $ 845.4 $ 795.1 $ 756.1 $ 18,298.7 $ 1,570.2 Notes: Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005. Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibit F.14a. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.14c Mean Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non- Fatal Cases, at 3% Discount Rate, by System Size (All Systems) TTHM - Rectal Cancer Sensitivity Analysis Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Ann. <100 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.4 $ 0.6 $ 0.7 $ 0.9 $ 1.0 $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 1.2 $ 1.2 $ 1.2 $ 1.2 $ 1.2 $ 1.2 $ 1.2 $ 1.2 $ 1.2 $ 1.2 $ 1.1 $ 19.2 $ 1.1 100-499 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 0.9 $ 1.9 $ 3.0 $ 4.2 $ 5.5 $ 6.8 $ 7.4 $ 7.9 $ 8.3 $ 8.5 $ 8.7 $ 8.8 $ 8.9 $ 8.9 $ 8.9 $ 8.9 $ 8.9 $ 8.8 $ 8.6 $ 8.5 $ 142.5 $ 8.2 500-999 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 0.9 $ 2.1 $ 3.3 $ 4.7 $ 6.1 $ 7.6 $ 8.2 $ 8.8 $ 9.2 $ 9.5 $ 9.7 $ 9.8 $ 9.9 $ 9.9 $ 9.9 $ 9.9 $ 9.8 $ 9.8 $ 9.6 $ 9.4 $ 157.9 $ 9.1 1,000-3,299 $ $ $ $ $ $ 3.2 $ 7.0 $ 11.3 $ 15.9 $ 20.9 $ 25.9 $ 28.2 $ 30.0 $ 31.4 $ 32.4 $ 33.1 $ 33.5 $ 33.8 $ 33.9 $ 33.9 $ 33.8 $ 33.6 $ 33.4 $ 32.7 $ 32.3 $ 540.2 $ 31.0 3,300-9,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 5.7 $ 12.4 $ 20.0 $ 28.3 $ 37.0 $ 46.0 $ 50.0 $ 53.3 $ 55.7 $ 57.5 $ 58.7 $ 59.4 $ 59.9 $ 60.1 $ 60.1 $ 59.9 $ 59.6 $ 59.2 $ 57.9 $ 57.2 $ 958.0 $ 55.0 10,000-49,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 17.4 $ 37.8 $ 60.7 $ 85.8 $ 112.3 $ 131.7 $ 142.5 $ 151.0 $ 157.3 $ 161.7 $ 164.7 $ 166.6 $ 167.7 $ 168.1 $ 168.0 $ 167.4 $ 166.5 $ 165.2 $ 161.7 $ 159.6 $ 2,713.8 $ 155.9 50,000- 99,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 11.1 $ 24.0 $ 38.5 $ 54.4 $ 66.1 $ 72.5 $ 77.5 $ 81.3 $ 84.0 $ 85.8 $ 87.1 $ 87.8 $ 88.2 $ 88.2 $ 88.0 $ 87.6 $ 87.0 $ 86.3 $ 84.4 $ 83.2 $ 1,462.9 $ 84.0 100,000- 999,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 41.3 $ 89.4 $ 143.7 $ 203.2 $ 227.7 $ 247.9 $ 263.5 $ 274.6 $ 282.5 $ 288.0 $ 291 .5 $ 293.6 $ 294.4 $ 294.3 $ 293.3 $ 291 .8 $ 289.7 $ 287.2 $ 280.6 $ 276.9 $ 4,955.0 $ 284.6 >1,000,000 $ $ $ $ $ $ 27.5 $ 59.6 $ 95.8 $ 135.5 $ 151.8 $ 165.3 $ 175.7 $ 183.1 $ 188.3 $ 192.0 $ 194.4 $ 195.7 $ 196.3 $ 196.2 $ 195.6 $ 194.5 $ 193.2 $ 191.5 $ 187.1 $ 184.6 $ 3,303.6 $ 189.7 Total $ $ $ $ $ $ 108.2 $ 234.3 $ 376.7 $ 532.5 $ 628.2 $ 704.7 $ 754.1 $ 791.1 $ 817.8 $ 836.5 $ 848.9 $ 856.5 $ 860.2 $ 860.9 $ 859.0 $ 855.0 $ 849.5 $ 842.5 $ 823.7 $ 813.0 $ 14,253.3 $ 818.5 Notes: Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005. Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and E.44d. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.14d Mean Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non- Fatal Cases, at 7% Discount Rate, by System Size (All Systems) TTHM - Rectal Cancer Sensitivity Analysis Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Ann. <100 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 10.6 $ 0.9 100-499 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 0.7 $ 1.5 $ 2.3 $ 3.1 $ 3.9 $ 4.7 $ 4.9 $ 5.0 $ 5.1 $ 5.0 $ 4.9 $ 4.8 $ 4.7 $ 4.5 $ 4.3 $ 4.2 $ 4.0 $ 3.8 $ 3.6 $ 3.4 $ 78.3 $ 6.7 500-999 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 0.8 $ 1.6 $ 2.5 $ 3.4 $ 4.3 $ 5.2 $ 5.4 $ 5.6 $ 5.6 $ 5.6 $ 5.5 $ 5.3 $ 5.2 $ 5.0 $ 4.8 $ 4.6 $ 4.4 $ 4.2 $ 4.0 $ 3.8 $ 86.8 $ 7.4 1,000-3,299 $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.7 $ 5.6 $ 8.6 $ 11.8 $ 14.8 $ 17.7 $ 18.6 $ 19.0 $ 19.1 $ 19.0 $ 18.7 $ 18.2 $ 17.7 $ 17.1 $ 16.4 $ 15.8 $ 15.1 $ 14.4 $ 13.6 $ 12.9 $ 296.8 $ 25.5 3,300-9,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 4.7 $ 9.9 $ 15.3 $ 20.8 $ 26.3 $ 31.4 $ 32.9 $ 33.7 $ 34.0 $ 33.7 $ 33.1 $ 32.3 $ 31.3 $ 30.3 $ 29.1 $ 28.0 $ 26.8 $ 25.6 $ 24.1 $ 22.9 $ 526.4 $ 45.2 10,000- 49,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 14.4 $ 30.0 $ 46.5 $ 63.3 $ 79.7 $ 90.0 $ 93.7 $ 95.6 $ 95.8 $ 94.8 $ 93.0 $ 90.6 $ 87.8 $ 84.7 $ 81.5 $ 78.1 $ 74.8 $ 71.5 $ 67.3 $ 64.0 $ 1,497.1 $ 128.5 50,000- 99,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 9.1 $ 19.1 $ 29.5 $ 40.1 $ 46.9 $ 49.5 $ 51.0 $ 51.5 $ 51.2 $ 50.3 $ 49.2 $ 47.7 $ 46.1 $ 44.4 $ 42.7 $ 40.9 $ 39.1 $ 37.3 $ 35.1 $ 33.4 $ 814.1 $ 69.9 100,000- 999,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 34.1 $ 71.1 $ 110.1 $ 149.8 $ 161.6 $ 169.4 $ 173.3 $ 173.8 $ 172.1 $ 168.9 $ 164.6 $ 159.6 $ 154.0 $ 148.2 $ 142.2 $ 136.2 $ 130.2 $ 124.2 $ 116.8 $ 111.0 $ 2,771.3 $ 237.8 >1, 000,000 $ $ $ $ $ $ 22.7 $ 47.4 $ 73.4 $ 99.9 $ 107.8 $ 112.9 $ 115.5 $ 115.9 $ 114.8 $ 112.6 $ 109.8 $ 106.4 $ 102.7 $ 98.8 $ 94.8 $ 90.8 $ 86.8 $ 82.8 $ 77.9 $ 74.0 $ 1,847.7 $ 158.6 Total $ $ $ $ $ $ 89.4 $ 186.4 $ 288.5 $ 392.6 $ 445.8 $ 481 .5 $ 496.0 $ 500.8 $ 498.4 $ 490.7 $ 479.4 $ 465.6 $ 450.1 $ 433.6 $ 416.5 $ 399.1 $ 381 .7 $ 364.4 $ 342.9 $ 325.8 $ 7,929.0 $ 680.4 Notes: Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005. Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and E.44d. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Section F.15 Model Outputs - Rectal Cancer Sensitivity Analysis TTHM as Indicator Bronchitis for Non-Fatal Cases ------- ------- Exhibit F.15a Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model) TTHM - Rectal Cancer Sensitivity Analysis Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Surface Water Systems Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 41.8 $ 93.3 $ 154.5 $ 225.2 $ 268.3 $ 305.8 $ 336.3 $ 362.6 $ 385.6 $ 405.9 $ 424.2 $ 440.8 $ 456.1 $ 470.3 $ 483.5 $ 496.0 $ 507.9 $ 519.2 $ 522.5 $ 531.5 $ 7,431.2 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 9.2 $ 20.5 $ 33.9 $ 49.4 $ 58.8 $ 66.9 $ 73.5 $ 79.1 $ 84.0 $ 88.2 $ 92.1 $ 95.6 $ 98.7 $ 101.5 $ 104.2 $ 106.7 $ 109.1 $ 111.4 $ 112.1 $ 113.9 $ 1,608.9 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 91.9 $ 205.4 $ 340.2 $ 495.5 $ 590.7 $ 674.2 $ 741.3 $ 800.8 $ 851.8 $ 898.8 $ 940.1 $ 978.1 $ 1,014.0 $ 1,045.7 $ 1,075.7 $ 1,104.1 $ 1,130.9 $ 1,158.9 $ 1,165.4 $ 1,187.4 $ 16,490.8 Ground Water Systems Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 20.2 $ 45.0 $ 74.6 $ 108.7 $ 137.7 $ 163.8 $ 181.7 $ 197.5 $ 211.2 $ 223.3 $ 234.1 $ 243.8 $ 252.8 $ 261.0 $ 268.6 $ 275.8 $ 282.6 $ 289.1 $ 291.1 $ 296.2 $ 4,059.1 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 4.4 $ 9.9 $ 16.4 $ 23.9 $ 30.2 $ 35.8 $ 39.7 $ 43.1 $ 46.0 $ 48.6 $ 50.8 $ 52.9 $ 54.7 $ 56.3 $ 57.9 $ 59.3 $ 60.7 $ 62.0 $ 62.5 $ 63.5 $ 878.6 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 44.4 $ 99.2 $ 164.2 $ 239.2 $ 303.2 $ 361.2 $ 400.5 $ 436.1 $ 466.7 $ 494.5 $ 518.8 $ 541.1 $ 561.9 $ 580.3 $ 597.6 $ 614.0 $ 629.3 $ 645.4 $ 649.3 $ 661.9 $ 9,008.8 All Systems Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 61.9 $ 138.3 $ 229.2 $ 333.9 $ 406.1 $ 469.6 $ 517.9 $ 560.0 $ 596.8 $ 629.2 $ 658.3 $ 684.7 $ 708.9 $ 731.3 $ 752.2 $ 771.9 $ 790.5 $ 808.3 $ 813.7 $ 827.7 $ 11,490.3 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 13.6 $ 30.4 $ 50.3 $ 73.3 $ 89.0 $ 102.7 $ 113.2 $ 122.2 $ 130.0 $ 136.8 $ 142.9 $ 148.4 $ 153.4 $ 157.8 $ 162.1 $ 166.0 $ 169.8 $ 173.4 $ 174.6 $ 177.4 $ 2,487.4 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 136.2 $ 304.6 $ 504.4 $ 734.7 $ 893.9 $ 1,035.4 $ 1,141.8 $ 1,236.8 $ 1,318.5 $ 1,393.4 $ 1,458.9 $ 1,519.2 $ 1,575.9 $ 1,625.9 $ 1,673.3 $ 1,718.1 $ 1,760.2 $ 1,804.3 $ 1,814.7 $ 1,849.2 $ 25,499.6 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.44b, and E.44c. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.15b Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model (All Water Systems) TTHM - Rectal Cancer Sensitivity Analysis Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Ann. 3% Discount Rate Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 53.4 $ 115.8 $ 186.3 $ 263.6 $ 311.2 $ 349.4 $ 374.2 $ 392.8 $ 406.4 $ 416.0 $ 422.5 $ 426.7 $ 428.9 $ 429.5 $ 429.0 $ 427.4 $ 424.9 $ 421.8 $ 412.3 $ 407.2 $ 7,099.3 $ 407.7 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 11.8 $ 25.5 $ 40.9 $ 57.9 $ 68.2 $ 76.4 $ 81.8 $ 85.7 $ 88.5 $ 90.4 $ 91.7 $ 92.5 $ 92.8 $ 92.7 $ 92.5 $ 91.9 $ 91.3 $ 90.5 $ 88.5 $ 87.3 $ 1,538.7 $ 88.4 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 117.5 $ 255.1 $ 410.1 $ 580.0 $ 685.1 $ 770.4 $ 824.9 $ 867.5 $ 897.8 $ 921 .2 $ 936.4 $ 946.7 $ 953.5 $ 955.1 $ 954.2 $ 951 .3 $ 946.2 $ 941 .7 $ 919.5 $ 909.7 $ 15,743.9 $ 904.1 7% Discount Rate Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 44.2 $ 92.2 $ 142.7 $ 194.4 $ 220.9 $ 238.7 $ 246.1 $ 248.7 $ 247.7 $ 244.0 $ 238.6 $ 231 .9 $ 224.4 $ 216.4 $ 208.0 $ 199.5 $ 190.9 $ 182.4 $ 171.6 $ 163.2 $ 3,946.3 $ 338.6 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 9.7 $ 20.3 $ 31.3 $ 42.7 $ 48.4 $ 52.2 $ 53.8 $ 54.3 $ 53.9 $ 53.1 $ 51.8 $ 50.3 $ 48.5 $ 46.7 $ 44.8 $ 42.9 $ 41.0 $ 39.1 $ 36.8 $ 35.0 $ 856.7 $ 73.5 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 97.1 $ 203.0 $ 314.1 $ 427.6 $ 486.2 $ 526.3 $ 542.5 $ 549.2 $ 547.1 $ 540.4 $ 528.8 $ 514.6 $ 498.9 $ 481.1 $ 462.7 $ 444.0 $ 425.1 $ 407.3 $ 382.8 $ 364.6 $ 8,743.3 $ 750.3 Notes: Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005. Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibit F.15a. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.15c Mean Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non- Fatal Cases, at 3% Discount Rate, by System Size (All Systems) TTHM - Rectal Cancer Sensitivity Analysis Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Ann. <100 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 9.6 $ 0.6 100-499 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 0.4 $ 0.9 $ 1.5 $ 2.1 $ 2.7 $ 3.4 $ 3.7 $ 3.9 $ 4.1 $ 4.3 $ 4.3 $ 4.4 $ 4.4 $ 4.5 $ 4.5 $ 4.5 $ 4.4 $ 4.4 $ 4.3 $ 4.3 $ 71.0 $ 4.1 500-999 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 0.5 $ 1.0 $ 1.6 $ 2.3 $ 3.0 $ 3.8 $ 4.1 $ 4.4 $ 4.6 $ 4.7 $ 4.8 $ 4.9 $ 4.9 $ 4.9 $ 4.9 $ 4.9 $ 4.9 $ 4.9 $ 4.8 $ 4.7 $ 78.7 $ 4.5 1,000-3,299 $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.6 $ 3.5 $ 5.6 $ 7.9 $ 10.3 $ 12.9 $ 14.0 $ 14.9 $ 15.6 $ 16.1 $ 16.5 $ 16.7 $ 16.8 $ 16.9 $ 16.9 $ 16.9 $ 16.8 $ 16.7 $ 16.4 $ 16.2 $ 269.1 $ 15.5 3,300-9,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.8 $ 6.1 $ 9.9 $ 14.0 $ 18.3 $ 22.8 $ 24.8 $ 26.5 $ 27.7 $ 28.6 $ 29.2 $ 29.6 $ 29.9 $ 30.0 $ 30.0 $ 30.0 $ 29.8 $ 29.6 $ 29.0 $ 28.7 $ 477.3 $ 27.4 10,000- 49,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 8.6 $ 18.7 $ 30.0 $ 42.5 $ 55.6 $ 65.3 $ 70.7 $ 75.0 $ 78.2 $ 80.4 $ 82.0 $ 83.0 $ 83.6 $ 83.9 $ 83.9 $ 83.7 $ 83.3 $ 82.7 $ 80.9 $ 80.0 $ 1,351.9 $ 77.6 50,000- 99,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 5.5 $ 11.8 $ 19.0 $ 26.9 $ 32.8 $ 35.9 $ 38.5 $ 40.4 $ 41.7 $ 42.7 $ 43.3 $ 43.7 $ 44.0 $ 44.0 $ 43.9 $ 43.8 $ 43.5 $ 43.2 $ 42.2 $ 41.7 $ 728.6 $ 41.8 100,000- 999,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 20.4 $ 44.2 $ 71.1 $ 100.6 $ 112.8 $ 122.9 $ 130.7 $ 136.3 $ 140.4 $ 143.2 $ 145.1 $ 146.2 $ 146.8 $ 146.8 $ 146.5 $ 145.8 $ 144.9 $ 143.8 $ 140.5 $ 138.7 $ 2,467.8 $ 141.7 >1, 000,000 $ $ $ $ $ $ 13.6 $ 29.5 $ 47.4 $ 67.1 $ 75.2 $ 82.0 $ 87.2 $ 90.9 $ 93.6 $ 95.5 $ 96.7 $ 97.5 $ 97.9 $ 97.9 $ 97.7 $ 97.2 $ 96.6 $ 95.9 $ 93.7 $ 92.5 $ 1,645.3 $ 94.5 Total $ $ $ $ $ $ 53.4 $ 115.8 $ 186.3 $ 263.6 $ 311.2 $ 349.4 $ 374.2 $ 392.8 $ 406.4 $ 416.0 $ 422.5 $ 426.7 $ 428.9 $ 429.5 $ 429.0 $ 427.4 $ 424.9 $ 421 .8 $ 412.3 $ 407.2 $ 7,099.3 $ 407.7 Notes: Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and E.44d. 2005. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.15d Mean Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non- Fatal Cases, at 7% Discount Rate, by System Size (All Systems) TTHM - Rectal Cancer Sensitivity Analysis Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Ann. <100 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 5.3 $ 0.5 100-499 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 0.3 $ 0.7 $ 1.1 $ 1.5 $ 1.9 $ 2.3 $ 2.4 $ 2.5 $ 2.5 $ 2.5 $ 2.5 $ 2.4 $ 2.3 $ 2.2 $ 2.2 $ 2.1 $ 2.0 $ 1.9 $ 1.8 $ 1.7 $ 39.0 $ 3.3 500-999 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 0.4 $ 0.8 $ 1.2 $ 1.7 $ 2.1 $ 2.6 $ 2.7 $ 2.8 $ 2.8 $ 2.8 $0 7 £.. I $ 2.7 $ 2.6 $ 2.5 $ 2.4 $ 2.3 $ 2.2 $ 2.1 $ 2.0 $ 1.9 $ 43.2 $ 3.7 1,000-3,299 $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.3 $ 2.8 $ 4.3 $ 5.8 $ 7.3 $ 8.8 $ 9.2 $ 9.4 $ 9.5 $ 9.5 $ 9.3 $ 9.1 $ 8.8 $ 8.5 $ 8.2 $ 7.9 $ 7.6 $ 7.2 $ 6.8 $ 6.5 $ 147.8 $ 12.7 3,300-9,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.3 $ 4.9 $ 7.6 $ 10.3 $ 13.0 $ 15.6 $ 16.3 $ 16.7 $ 16.9 $ 16.8 $ 16.5 $ 16.1 $ 15.6 $ 15.1 $ 14.6 $ 14.0 $ 13.4 $ 12.8 $ 12.1 $ 11.5 $ 262.0 $ 22.5 10,000- 49,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 7.1 $ 14.9 $ 23.0 $ 31.3 $ 39.5 $ 44.6 $ 46.5 $ 47.5 $ 47.6 $ 47.2 $ 46.3 $ 45.1 $ 43.8 $ 42.3 $ 40.7 $ 39.1 $ 37.4 $ 35.8 $ 33.7 $ 32.0 $ 745.2 $ 63.9 50,000- 99,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 4.5 $ 9.4 $ 14.6 $ 19.9 $ 23.3 $ 24.6 $ 25.3 $ 25.6 $ 25.4 $ 25.0 $ 24.5 $ 23.8 $ 23.0 $ 22.2 $ 21.3 $ 20.4 $ 19.6 $ 18.7 $ 17.6 $ 16.7 $ 405.2 $ 34.8 100,000- 999,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 16.8 $ 35.2 $ 54.4 $ 74.2 $ 80.1 $ 84.0 $ 86.0 $ 86.3 $ 85.5 $ 84.0 $ 81.9 $ 79.5 $ 76.8 $ 74.0 $ 71.0 $ 68.1 $ 65.1 $ 62.2 $ 58.5 $ 55.6 $ 1,379.1 $ 118.3 >1, 000,000 $ $ $ $ $ $ 11.2 $ 23.4 $ 36.3 $ 49.4 $ 53.4 $ 56.0 $ 57.3 $ 57.5 $ 57.0 $ 56.0 $ 54.6 $ 53.0 $ 51.2 $ 49.3 $ 47.4 $ 45.4 $ 43.4 $ 41.5 $ 39.0 $ 37.1 $ 919.5 $ 78.9 Total $ $ $ $ $ $ 44.2 $ 92.2 $ 142.7 $ 194.4 $ 220.9 $ 238.7 $ 246.1 $ 248.7 $ 247.7 $ 244.0 $ 238.6 $ 231 .9 $ 224.4 $ 216.4 $ 208.0 $ 199.5 $ 190.9 $ 182.4 $ 171.6 $ 163.2 $ 3,946.3 $ 338.6 Notes: Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and E.44d. 2005. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Section F.20 Model Outputs - Preferred Alternative, ICR Matrix Method Only TTHM as Indicator Lymphoma for Non-Fatal Cases ------- ------- Exhibit F.20a Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Surface Water Systems Serving <100 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative, ICR Matrix Method Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 3.9 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.6 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 9.0 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 2.5 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.4 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 5.7 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 4.7 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.7 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 10.9 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.20b Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Surface Water Systems Serving 100-499 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative, ICR Matrix Method Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.4 $ 0.6 $ 0.9 $ 1.2 $ 1.4 $ 1.6 $ 1.8 $ 2.0 $ 2.1 $ 2.3 $ 2.4 $ 2.5 $ 2.6 $ 2.7 $ 2.7 $ 2.8 $ 2.8 $ 2.9 $ 36.1 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 5.5 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.5 $ 0.9 $ 1.4 $ 2.0 $ 2.7 $ 3.3 $ 3.8 $ 4.2 $ 4.6 $ 4.9 $ 5.2 $ 5.5 $ 5.7 $ 6.0 $ 6.2 $ 6.3 $ 6.5 $ 6.6 $ 6.7 $ 83.4 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.7 $ 0.9 $ 1.0 $ 1.1 $ 1.2 $ 1.3 $ 1.4 $ 1.5 $ 1.6 $ 1.6 $ 1.7 $ 1.8 $ 1.9 $ 1.9 $ 2.0 $ 22.9 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 3.5 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.3 $ 0.6 $ 0.9 $ 1.3 $ 1.7 $ 2.0 $ 2.2 $ 2.5 $ 2.7 $ 2.9 $ 3.2 $ 3.4 $ 3.6 $ 3.8 $ 4.0 $ 4.2 $ 4.4 $ 4.5 $ 4.6 $ 52.8 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.4 $ 0.6 $ 1.0 $ 1.3 $ 1.7 $ 2.0 $ 2.2 $ 2.4 $ 2.5 $ 2.6 $ 2.7 $ 2.8 $ 2.9 $ 3.0 $ 3.0 $ 3.1 $ 3.2 $ 3.2 $ 3.2 $ 43.9 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 6.7 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.3 $ 0.8 $ 1.5 $ 2.2 $ 3.0 $ 3.9 $ 4.5 $ 5.0 $ 5.4 $ 5.8 $ 6.1 $ 6.3 $ 6.5 $ 6.7 $ 6.9 $ 7.0 $ 7.2 $ 7.3 $ 7.3 $ 7.4 $ 101.4 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.20c Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Surface Water Systems Serving 500-999 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative, ICR Matrix Method Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.4 $ 0.7 $ 1.1 $ 1.6 $ 2.1 $ 2.5 $ 2.9 $ 3.2 $ 3.5 $ 3.8 $ 4.0 $ 4.2 $ 4.4 $ 4.5 $ 4.7 $ 4.8 $ 5.0 $ 5.0 $ 5.1 $ 63.6 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 9.7 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.3 $ 0.9 $ 1.6 $ 2.5 $ 3.6 $ 4.8 $ 5.8 $ 6.6 $ 7.4 $ 8.1 $ 8.7 $ 9.2 $ 9.7 $ 10.1 $ 10.5 $ 10.8 $ 11.2 $ 11.5 $ 11.6 $ 11.9 $ 146.9 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.3 $ 0.5 $ 0.7 $ 1.0 $ 1.3 $ 1.5 $ 1.7 $ 1.9 $ 2.1 $ 2.2 $ 2.4 $ 2.6 $ 2.7 $ 2.9 $ 3.0 $ 3.2 $ 3.3 $ 3.4 $ 3.5 $ 40.3 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 6.1 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.6 $ 1.1 $ 1.6 $ 2.2 $ 2.9 $ 3.4 $ 3.9 $ 4.4 $ 4.8 $ 5.2 $ 5.6 $ 6.0 $ 6.3 $ 6.7 $ 7.0 $ 7.4 $ 7.7 $ 7.9 $ 8.2 $ 93.1 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.6 $ 1.1 $ 1.7 $ 2.3 $ 3.0 $ 3.5 $ 3.9 $ 4.2 $ 4.4 $ 4.6 $ 4.8 $ 5.0 $ 5.1 $ 5.2 $ 5.4 $ 5.5 $ 5.6 $ 5.6 $ 5.6 $ 77.3 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.9 $ 11.8 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.6 $ 1.5 $ 2.6 $ 3.9 $ 5.3 $ 6.9 $ 8.0 $ 8.9 $ 9.6 $ 10.2 $ 10.7 $ 11.1 $ 11.5 $ 11.8 $ 12.1 $ 12.4 $ 12.6 $ 12.9 $ 12.9 $ 13.1 $ 178.6 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.20d Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Surface Water Systems Serving 1,000-3,299 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative, ICR Matrix Method Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.0 $ 2.6 $ 4.6 $ 7.2 $ 10.1 $ 13.5 $ 16.2 $ 18.6 $ 20.7 $ 22.6 $ 24.3 $ 25.7 $ 27.0 $ 28.2 $ 29.2 $ 30.2 $ 31.1 $ 32.0 $ 32.3 $ 33.0 $ 409.9 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.4 $ 0.7 $ 1.1 $ 1.5 $ 2.1 $ 2.5 $ 2.8 $ 3.2 $ 3.4 $ 3.7 $ 3.9 $ 4.1 $ 4.3 $ 4.4 $ 4.6 $ 4.7 $ 4.8 $ 4.9 $ 5.0 $ 62.3 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.2 $ 5.9 $ 10.6 $ 16.4 $ 23.3 $ 31.0 $ 37.2 $ 42.7 $ 47.7 $ 52.1 $ 56.0 $ 59.4 $ 62.4 $ 65.2 $ 67.6 $ 69.9 $ 72.1 $ 74.1 $ 75.0 $ 76.6 $ 947.4 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.7 $ 1.7 $ 3.0 $ 4.5 $ 6.2 $ 8.2 $ 9.7 $ 11.0 $ 12.2 $ 13.4 $ 14.5 $ 15.6 $ 16.6 $ 17.6 $ 18.6 $ 19.6 $ 20.5 $ 21.4 $ 22.0 $ 22.7 $ 259.6 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.3 $ 0.5 $ 0.7 $ 1.0 $ 1.3 $ 1.5 $ 1.7 $ 1.9 $ 2.0 $ 2.2 $ 2.4 $ 2.5 $ 2.7 $ 2.8 $ 3.0 $ 3.1 $ 3.2 $ 3.3 $ 3.4 $ 39.5 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.6 $ 3.9 $ 6.8 $ 10.3 $ 14.4 $ 18.9 $ 22.2 $ 25.3 $ 28.1 $ 30.9 $ 33.5 $ 36.0 $ 38.5 $ 40.8 $ 43.1 $ 45.2 $ 47.4 $ 49.6 $ 50.9 $ 52.8 $ 600.1 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.6 $ 4.1 $ 7.2 $ 10.8 $ 14.9 $ 19.4 $ 22.5 $ 24.9 $ 26.9 $ 28.5 $ 29.9 $ 31.1 $ 32.1 $ 33.0 $ 33.8 $ 34.5 $ 35.2 $ 35.8 $ 36.0 $ 36.4 $ 498.5 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.6 $ 1.1 $ 1.7 $ 2.3 $ 3.0 $ 3.4 $ 3.8 $ 4.1 $ 4.3 $ 4.5 $ 4.7 $ 4.9 $ 5.0 $ 5.1 $ 5.2 $ 5.3 $ 5.4 $ 5.4 $ 5.5 $ 75.8 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 3.7 $ 9.4 $ 16.5 $ 24.9 $ 34.3 $ 44.6 $ 51.6 $ 57.3 $ 61.9 $ 65.7 $ 69.0 $ 71.7 $ 74.2 $ 76.3 $ 78.2 $ 79.9 $ 81.6 $ 83.1 $ 83.4 $ 84.5 $ 1,151.9 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.20e Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Surface Water Systems Serving 3,300-9,999 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative, ICR Matrix Method Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.8 $ 7.3 $ 13.2 $ 20.5 $ 28.9 $ 38.6 $ 46.3 $ 53.1 $ 59.2 $ 64.6 $ 69.4 $ 73.5 $ 77.2 $ 80.6 $ 83.6 $ 86.4 $ 89.0 $ 91.4 $ 92.5 $ 94.4 $ 1,172.5 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.4 $ 1.1 $ 2.0 $ 3.1 $ 4.4 $ 5.9 $ 7.1 $ 8.1 $ 9.0 $ 9.8 $ 10.6 $ 11.2 $ 11.7 $ 12.3 $ 12.7 $ 13.1 $ 13.5 $ 13.8 $ 14.0 $ 14.3 $ 178.3 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 6.4 $ 16.8 $ 30.4 $ 47.0 $ 66.5 $ 88.8 $ 106.5 $ 122.2 $ 136.3 $ 149.1 $ 160.2 $ 169.8 $ 178.6 $ 186.4 $ 193.5 $ 200.0 $ 206.1 $ 212.1 $ 214.4 $ 219.0 $ 2,710.1 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.0 $ 4.9 $ 8.5 $ 12.9 $ 17.9 $ 23.5 $ 27.6 $ 31.4 $ 34.9 $ 38.3 $ 41.5 $ 44.6 $ 47.6 $ 50.4 $ 53.2 $ 55.9 $ 58.6 $ 61.1 $ 62.8 $ 65.1 $ 742.6 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.3 $ 0.7 $ 1.3 $ 2.0 $ 2.7 $ 3.6 $ 4.2 $ 4.8 $ 5.3 $ 5.8 $ 6.3 $ 6.8 $ 7.2 $ 7.7 $ 8.1 $ 8.5 $ 8.9 $ 9.3 $ 9.5 $ 9.8 $ 112.9 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 4.6 $ 11.2 $ 19.6 $ 29.5 $ 41.1 $ 54.0 $ 63.5 $ 72.3 $ 80.5 $ 88.4 $ 95.8 $ 102.9 $ 110.0 $ 116.7 $ 123.2 $ 129.4 $ 135.6 $ 141.8 $ 145.6 $ 151.0 $ 1,716.7 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 4.6 $ 11.7 $ 20.6 $ 31.0 $ 42.7 $ 55.5 $ 64.2 $ 71.2 $ 76.8 $ 81.5 $ 85.5 $ 88.8 $ 91.8 $ 94.4 $ 96.7 $ 98.8 $ 100.7 $ 102.5 $ 102.8 $ 104.2 $1,425.9 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.7 $ 1.8 $ 3.2 $ 4.8 $ 6.5 $ 8.5 $ 9.8 $ 10.9 $ 11.7 $ 12.4 $ 13.0 $ 13.5 $ 14.0 $ 14.4 $ 14.7 $ 15.0 $ 15.3 $ 15.5 $ 15.6 $ 15.8 $ 216.9 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 10.6 $ 26.8 $ 47.3 $ 71.3 $ 98.2 $ 127.5 $ 147.7 $ 163.8 $ 177.0 $ 188.1 $ 197.3 $ 205.1 $ 212.3 $ 218.3 $ 223.8 $ 228.6 $ 233.3 $ 237.8 $ 238.4 $ 241.7 $ 3,294.9 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.20f Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Surface Water Systems Serving 10,000-49,999 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative, ICR Matrix Method Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 17.6 $ 45.6 $ 82.6 $ 127.8 $ 181.3 $ 233.4 $ 277.3 $ 316.7 $ 352.3 $ 383.8 $ 411.2 $ 435.0 $ 456.2 $ 475.2 $ 492.5 $ 508.4 $ 523.2 $ 537.0 $ 542.9 $ 553.7 $ 6,953.7 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.7 $ 7.0 $ 12.6 $ 19.6 $ 27.7 $ 35.7 $ 42.4 $ 48.4 $ 53.7 $ 58.5 $ 62.6 $ 66.2 $ 69.4 $ 72.3 $ 74.9 $ 77.2 $ 79.3 $ 81.3 $ 82.3 $ 83.8 $ 1,057.3 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 40.4 $ 104.9 $ 189.7 $ 293.5 $ 416.7 $ 536.8 $ 637.7 $ 729.1 $ 811.6 $ 885.8 $ 949.4 $ 1,004.5 $ 1,055.1 $ 1,099.3 $ 1,139.8 $ 1,176.7 $ 1,211.9 $ 1,245.8 $ 1,258.7 $ 1,285.0 $ 16,072.5 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 15.1 $ 36.1 $ 62.1 $ 92.4 $ 126.9 $ 157.3 $ 180.3 $ 201 .2 $ 220.7 $ 239.1 $ 256.6 $ 273.4 $ 289.5 $ 305.1 $ 320.2 $ 334.8 $ 349.0 $ 362.9 $ 371 .5 $ 383.7 $ 4,577.9 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.3 $ 5.5 $ 9.5 $ 14.1 $ 19.4 $ 24.1 $ 27.5 $ 30.7 $ 33.7 $ 36.4 $ 39.1 $ 41.6 $ 44.0 $ 46.4 $ 48.7 $ 50.8 $ 52.9 $ 54.9 $ 56.3 $ 58.1 $ 696.1 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 34.7 $ 83.1 $ 142.6 $ 212.3 $ 291.7 $ 361.8 $ 414.7 $ 463.2 $ 508.4 $ 551.7 $ 592.4 $ 631.2 $ 669.6 $ 705.8 $ 740.9 $ 774.8 $ 808.5 $ 841.9 $ 861.5 $ 890.4 $ 10,581.2 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 31.4 $ 77.8 $ 135.4 $ 201 .9 $ 275.8 $ 339.5 $ 384.0 $ 419.5 $ 448.8 $ 473.3 $ 494.4 $ 512.6 $ 528.8 $ 543.2 $ 556.3 $ 568.3 $ 579.4 $ 589.8 $ 591 .9 $ 599.8 $8,351.7 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 4.8 $ 11.9 $ 20.7 $ 30.9 $ 42.2 $ 51.9 $ 58.7 $ 64.1 $ 68.4 $ 72.1 $ 75.3 $ 78.0 $ 80.4 $ 82.6 $ 84.6 $ 86.3 $ 87.8 $ 89.3 $ 89.7 $ 90.8 $ 1,270.3 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 72.2 $ 178.9 $ 311.0 $ 463.7 $ 634.0 $ 780.7 $ 883.1 $ 965.7 $ 1,033.9 $ 1,092.3 $ 1,141.4 $ 1,183.6 $ 1,222.9 $ 1,256.6 $ 1,287.3 $ 1,315.2 $ 1,342.1 $ 1,368.4 $ 1,372.5 $ 1,392.1 $ 19,297.5 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.20g Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Surface Water Systems Serving 50,000-99,999 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative, ICR Matrix Method Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 15.3 $ 39.7 $ 71.9 $ 111.4 $ 150.0 $ 182.7 $ 212.3 $ 239.2 $ 263.0 $ 283.6 $ 301 .4 $ 317.1 $ 331 .2 $ 343.9 $ 355.6 $ 366.4 $ 376.5 $ 385.9 $ 389.8 $ 397.2 $ 5,134.0 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.3 $ 6.1 $ 11.0 $ 17.0 $ 22.9 $ 27.9 $ 32.4 $ 36.5 $ 40.1 $ 43.2 $ 45.9 $ 48.2 $ 50.4 $ 52.3 $ 54.1 $ 55.6 $ 57.1 $ 58.4 $ 59.1 $ 60.1 $ 780.7 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 35.2 $ 91.4 $ 165.3 $ 255.8 $ 344.8 $ 420.2 $ 488.3 $ 550.5 $ 605.9 $ 654.4 $ 695.8 $ 732.1 $ 765.9 $ 795.6 $ 823.0 $ 848.0 $ 872.1 $ 895.4 $ 903.7 $ 921.8 $ 11,865.1 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 13.2 $ 31.5 $ 54.1 $ 80.5 $ 103.7 $ 120.7 $ 136.0 $ 150.2 $ 163.5 $ 176.2 $ 188.3 $ 199.9 $ 211.2 $ 222.0 $ 232.5 $ 242.8 $ 252.7 $ 262.4 $ 268.4 $ 276.9 $ 3,386.6 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.0 $ 4.8 $ 8.3 $ 12.3 $ 15.9 $ 18.5 $ 20.8 $ 22.9 $ 24.9 $ 26.8 $ 28.7 $ 30.4 $ 32.1 $ 33.8 $ 35.3 $ 36.9 $ 38.3 $ 39.7 $ 40.7 $ 41.9 $ 515.0 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 30.3 $ 72.4 $ 124.3 $ 185.0 $ 238.5 $ 277.6 $ 312.7 $ 345.6 $ 376.6 $ 406.5 $ 434.7 $ 461.6 $ 488.4 $ 513.6 $ 538.2 $ 561.9 $ 585.4 $ 608.8 $ 622.3 $ 642.6 $ 7,827.0 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 27.4 $ 67.8 $ 118.0 $ 175.9 $ 226.1 $ 260.5 $ 287.8 $ 310.0 $ 328.6 $ 344.5 $ 358.2 $ 370.2 $ 380.9 $ 390.5 $ 399.3 $ 407.5 $ 415.1 $ 422.2 $ 423.5 $ 428.9 $ 6,142.6 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 4.2 $ 10.4 $ 18.1 $ 26.9 $ 34.6 $ 39.8 $ 44.0 $ 47.3 $ 50.1 $ 52.5 $ 54.5 $ 56.3 $ 57.9 $ 59.4 $ 60.7 $ 61.8 $ 62.9 $ 63.9 $ 64.2 $ 64.9 $ 934.4 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 62.9 $ 155.9 $ 271.0 $ 404.1 $ 519.7 $ 599.2 $ 661.8 $ 713.7 $ 757.1 $ 794.9 $ 826.9 $ 854.7 $ 880.8 $ 903.4 $ 924.1 $ 943.0 $ 961.4 $ 979.5 $ 981.9 $ 995.5 $ 14,191.4 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.20h Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Surface Water Systems Serving 100,000-999,999 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative, ICR Matrix Method Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 67.8 $ 175.8 $ 318.3 $ 492.6 $ 628.3 $ 752.4 $ 866.1 $ 969.0 $ 1 ,058.7 $ 1,135.0 $ 1 ,201 .7 $ 1 ,261 .0 $ 1,314.4 $ 1 ,363.0 $ 1 ,407.6 $ 1 ,449.0 $ 1 ,487.7 $ 1,524.1 $ 1 ,538.4 $ 1 ,567.0 $ 20,577.9 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 10.4 $ 26.9 $ 48.7 $ 75.4 $ 96.0 $ 115.0 $ 132.3 $ 148.0 $ 161.4 $ 172.9 $ 183.0 $ 191.8 $ 199.9 $ 207.3 $ 214.0 $ 219.9 $ 225.5 $ 230.8 $ 233.1 $ 237.1 $ 3,129.5 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 155.7 $ 404.4 $ 731.1 $ 1,131.5 $ 1,444.2 $ 1,730.3 $ 1,991.9 $ 2,230.5 $ 2,439.0 $ 2,619.3 $ 2,774.4 $ 2,911.6 $ 3,040.0 $ 3,153.1 $ 3,257.6 $ 3,353.6 $ 3,446.1 $ 3,535.8 $ 3,566.9 $ 3,636.8 $ 47,553.9 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 58.2 $ 139.3 $ 239.3 $ 356.3 $ 428.6 $ 492.1 $ 550.3 $ 604.6 $ 656.0 $ 704.9 $ 751.8 $ 797.0 $ 840.5 $ 882.7 $ 923.6 $ 963.4 $ 1,002.2 $ 1,040.0 $ 1,063.0 $ 1,096.0 $ 13,589.8 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 8.9 $ 21.3 $ 36.6 $ 54.5 $ 65.5 $ 75.2 $ 84.1 $ 92.3 $ 100.0 $ 107.4 $ 114.5 $ 121.2 $ 127.8 $ 134.3 $ 140.4 $ 146.2 $ 151.9 $ 157.5 $ 161.1 $ 165.9 $ 2,066.7 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 133.9 $ 320.3 $ 549.7 $ 818.4 $ 985.2 $ 1,131.7 $ 1 ,265.4 $ 1 ,391 .7 $ 1,511.2 $ 1 ,626.7 $ 1 ,735.8 $ 1,840.1 $ 1 ,944.0 $ 2,042.1 $ 2,137.5 $ 2,229.8 $ 2,321.4 $ 2,412.7 $ 2,464.7 $ 2,543.7 $ 31,406.1 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 121.0 $ 299.9 $ 521 .8 $ 778.2 $ 937.1 $ 1,060.1 $ 1,159.1 $ 1 ,240.9 $ 1 ,309.7 $ 1 ,368.6 $ 1,419.8 $ 1,465.1 $ 1 ,505.5 $ 1,542.1 $ 1 ,575.8 $ 1 ,607.0 $ 1 ,636.2 $ 1 ,663.8 $ 1 ,668.3 $ 1 ,689.3 $ 24,569.2 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 18.5 $ 45.9 $ 79.9 $ 119.1 $ 143.3 $ 162.1 $ 177.1 $ 189.5 $ 199.7 $ 208.5 $ 216.2 $ 222.8 $ 228.9 $ 234.6 $ 239.5 $ 243.9 $ 248.0 $ 251 .9 $ 252.8 $ 255.6 $ 3,737.9 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 278.2 $ 689.7 $ 1,198.8 $ 1,787.6 $ 2,154.3 $ 2,437.9 $ 2,665.6 $ 2,856.3 $ 3,017.2 $ 3,158.3 $ 3,278.0 $ 3,382.7 $ 3,481.9 $ 3,567.6 $ 3,646.7 $ 3,719.1 $ 3,790.0 $ 3,860.0 $ 3,868.2 $ 3,920.5 $ 56,758.7 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.20i Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Surface Water Systems Serving >1,000,000 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative, ICR Matrix Method Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 57.7 $ 149.6 $ 270.9 $ 419.2 $ 534.7 $ 640.3 $ 737.1 $ 824.7 $ 901 .0 $ 966.0 $ 1 ,022.7 $ 1 ,073.2 $ 1,118.6 $ 1,160.0 $ 1,198.0 $ 1 ,233.2 $ 1,266.1 $ 1,297.1 $ 1 ,309.2 $ 1 ,333.6 $ 17,513.0 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 8.8 $ 22.9 $ 41.4 $ 64.2 $ 81.7 $ 97.9 $ 112.6 $ 125.9 $ 137.4 $ 147.1 $ 155.7 $ 163.2 $ 170.1 $ 176.4 $ 182.1 $ 187.2 $ 191.9 $ 196.4 $ 198.4 $ 201 .8 $ 2,663.4 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 132.6 $ 344.1 $ 622.2 $ 963.0 $ 1,229.1 $ 1,472.6 $ 1,695.2 $ 1,898.3 $ 2,075.8 $ 2,229.1 $ 2,361.2 $ 2,477.9 $ 2,587.2 $ 2,683.5 $ 2,772.4 $ 2,854.1 $ 2,932.8 $ 3,009.2 $ 3,035.7 $ 3,095.1 $ 40,471.2 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 49.6 $ 118.5 $ 203.6 $ 303.2 $ 364.7 $ 418.8 $ 468.3 $ 514.6 $ 558.3 $ 599.9 $ 639.8 $ 678.3 $ 715.3 $ 751.2 $ 786.1 $ 819.9 $ 852.9 $ 885.1 $ 904.7 $ 932.8 $ 11,565.7 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 7.6 $ 18.1 $ 31.2 $ 46.4 $ 55.8 $ 64.0 $ 71.5 $ 78.6 $ 85.1 $ 91.4 $ 97.4 $ 103.2 $ 108.8 $ 114.3 $ 119.5 $ 124.5 $ 129.3 $ 134.0 $ 137.1 $ 141.2 $ 1,758.9 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 113.9 $ 272.6 $ 467.8 $ 696.5 $ 838.5 $ 963.2 $ 1 ,077.0 $ 1,184.4 $ 1,286.1 $ 1 ,384.4 $ 1 ,477.2 $ 1 ,566.0 $ 1 ,654.4 $ 1 ,737.9 $ 1,819.2 $ 1 ,897.7 $ 1 ,975.7 $ 2,053.4 $ 2,097.6 $ 2,164.8 $ 26,728.4 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 103.0 $ 255.2 $ 444.1 $ 662.3 $ 797.6 $ 902.2 $ 986.5 $ 1 ,056.0 $ 1,114.6 $ 1,164.8 $ 1 ,208.4 $ 1 ,246.8 $ 1 ,281 .3 $ 1,312.5 $ 1,341.1 $ 1 ,367.6 $ 1 ,392.5 $ 1,416.0 $ 1,419.8 $ 1 ,437.7 $ 20,909.9 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 15.8 $ 39.1 $ 68.0 $ 101.4 $ 121.9 $ 138.0 $ 150.7 $ 161.3 $ 170.0 $ 177.4 $ 184.0 $ 189.6 $ 194.8 $ 199.6 $ 203.9 $ 207.6 $ 211.1 $ 214.4 $ 215.2 $ 217.6 $ 3,181.1 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 236.8 $ 587.0 $ 1,020.3 $ 1,521.3 $ 1,833.4 $ 2,074.8 $ 2,268.6 $ 2,430.9 $ 2,567.9 $ 2,687.9 $ 2,789.8 $ 2,878.8 $ 2,963.3 $ 3,036.2 $ 3,103.6 $ 3,165.2 $ 3,225.5 $ 3,285.1 $ 3,292.1 $ 3,336.6 $ 48,305.0 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.20J Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (All Surface Water Systems) TTHM - Preferred Alternative, ICR Matrix Method Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 162.3 $ 421.3 $ 762.6 $ 1,180.4 $ 1,535.8 $ 1,864.3 $ 2,159.5 $ 2,425.9 $ 2,660.1 $ 2,861.2 $ 3,036.8 $ 3,192.1 $ 3,331.5 $ 3,458.0 $ 3,574.0 $ 3,681.3 $ 3,781.5 $ 3,875.6 $ 3,913.2 $ 3,987.2 $ 51,864.5 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 24.8 $ 64.5 $ 116.7 $ 180.7 $ 234.8 $ 285.1 $ 329.9 $ 370.4 $ 405.6 $ 435.9 $ 462.4 $ 485.5 $ 506.6 $ 525.9 $ 543.3 $ 558.8 $ 573.2 $ 586.8 $ 593.0 $ 603.4 $ 7,887.3 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 373.1 $ 968.9 $ 1,751.9 $ 2,711.3 $ 3,530.5 $ 4,287.5 $ 4,966.3 $ 5,584.2 $ 6,128.3 $ 6,602.9 $ 7,011.1 $ 7,370.1 $ 7,705.0 $ 7,999.6 $ 8,271.1 $ 8,520.0 $ 8,759.3 $ 8,991.1 $ 9,073.4 $ 9,253.6 $ 119,859.5 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 138.9 $ 332.4 $ 571.3 $ 851.0 $ 1,049.6 $ 1,222.7 $ 1,374.6 $ 1,515.7 $ 1,648.6 $ 1,775.1 $ 1,896.2 $ 2,012.6 $ 2,124.9 $ 2,233.6 $ 2,338.9 $ 2,441.4 $ 2,541.1 $ 2,638.3 $ 2,697.9 $ 2,782.9 $ 34,187.8 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 21.3 $ 50.9 $ 87.4 $ 130.3 $ 160.5 $ 187.0 $ 210.0 $ 231.4 $ 251.4 $ 270.4 $ 288.7 $ 306.1 $ 323.1 $ 339.7 $ 355.6 $ 370.6 $ 385.2 $ 399.5 $ 408.8 $ 421.1 $ 5,198.9 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 319.3 $ 764.6 $ 1,312.5 $ 1,954.7 $ 2,412.8 $ 2,811.9 $ 3,161.2 $ 3,488.9 $ 3,798.2 $ 4,096.5 $ 4,377.8 $ 4,646.9 $ 4,914.5 $ 5,167.1 $ 5,412.9 $ 5,650.2 $ 5,886.1 $ 6,120.8 $ 6,255.5 $ 6,458.7 $ 79,011.1 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 289.4 $ 717.4 $ 1,248.9 $ 1,863.0 $ 2,298.0 $ 2,641.9 $ 2,909.7 $ 3,128.8 $ 3,312.1 $ 3,468.3 $ 3,603.6 $ 3,722.4 $ 3,828.4 $ 3,924.0 $ 4,011.4 $ 4,092.3 $ 4,167.9 $ 4,239.3 $ 4,251.4 $ 4,305.4 $ 62,023.7 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 44.3 $ 109.8 $ 191.1 $ 285.2 $ 351.3 $ 404.0 $ 444.5 $ 477.8 $ 505.0 $ 528.3 $ 548.7 $ 566.2 $ 582.1 $ 596.8 $ 609.8 $ 621.2 $ 631.8 $ 641.9 $ 644.3 $ 651.6 $ 9,435.6 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 665.2 $ 1,650.1 $ 2,869.0 $ 4,279.2 $ 5,282.6 $ 6,076.0 $ 6,691.4 $ 7,202.1 $ 7,630.5 $ 8,003.9 $ 8,319.7 $ 8,594.7 $ 8,854.2 $ 9,077.6 $ 9,283.5 $ 9,471.2 $ 9,654.5 $ 9,834.9 $ 9,857.6 $ 9,992.3 $ 143,290.4 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.20k Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Ground Water Systems Serving <100 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative, ICR Matrix Method Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 0.7 $ 0.8 $ 0.9 $ 1.0 $ 1.0 $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 1.2 $ 1.2 $ 1.2 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 16.2 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 2.5 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.4 $ 0.6 $ 0.9 $ 1.2 $ 1.5 $ 1.7 $ 1.9 $ 2.1 $ 2.2 $ 2.3 $ 2.5 $ 2.6 $ 2.7 $ 2.8 $ 2.8 $ 2.9 $ 3.0 $ 3.0 $ 37.4 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.9 $ 0.9 $ 10.2 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 1.6 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.6 $ 0.7 $ 0.9 $ 1.0 $ 1.1 $ 1.2 $ 1.3 $ 1.4 $ 1.5 $ 1.6 $ 1.7 $ 1.8 $ 1.9 $ 2.0 $ 2.0 $ 2.1 $ 23.7 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.6 $ 0.8 $ 0.9 $ 1.0 $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 1.2 $ 1.2 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.4 $ 1.4 $ 1.4 $ 1.4 $ 1.4 $ 19.7 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 3.0 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.4 $ 0.7 $ 1.0 $ 1.4 $ 1.8 $ 2.0 $ 2.3 $ 2.4 $ 2.6 $ 2.7 $ 2.8 $ 2.9 $ 3.0 $ 3.1 $ 3.2 $ 3.2 $ 3.3 $ 3.3 $ 3.3 $ 45.5 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.20I Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Ground Water Systems Serving 100-499 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative, ICR Matrix Method Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.3 $ 0.7 $ 1.3 $ 2.1 $ 3.0 $ 3.9 $ 4.7 $ 5.4 $ 6.0 $ 6.6 $ 7.1 $ 7.5 $ 7.9 $ 8.2 $ 8.5 $ 8.8 $ 9.1 $ 9.3 $ 9.4 $ 9.6 $ 119.5 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 0.7 $ 0.8 $ 0.9 $ 1.0 $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 1.2 $ 1.2 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.4 $ 1.4 $ 1.4 $ 1.5 $ 18.2 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.7 $ 1.7 $ 3.1 $ 4.8 $ 6.8 $ 9.1 $ 10.9 $ 12.5 $ 13.9 $ 15.2 $ 16.3 $ 17.3 $ 18.2 $ 19.0 $ 19.7 $ 20.4 $ 21.0 $ 21.6 $ 21.9 $ 22.3 $ 276.3 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.5 $ 0.9 $ 1.3 $ 1.8 $ 2.4 $ 2.8 $ 3.2 $ 3.6 $ 3.9 $ 4.2 $ 4.5 $ 4.8 $ 5.1 $ 5.4 $ 5.7 $ 6.0 $ 6.2 $ 6.4 $ 6.6 $ 75.7 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.9 $ 0.9 $ 0.9 $ 1.0 $ 1.0 $ 11.5 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.5 $ 1.1 $ 2.0 $ 3.0 $ 4.2 $ 5.5 $ 6.5 $ 7.4 $ 8.2 $ 9.0 $ 9.8 $ 10.5 $ 11.2 $ 11.9 $ 12.6 $ 13.2 $ 13.8 $ 14.5 $ 14.8 $ 15.4 $ 175.0 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.5 $ 1.2 $ 2.1 $ 3.2 $ 4.4 $ 5.7 $ 6.5 $ 7.3 $ 7.8 $ 8.3 $ 8.7 $ 9.1 $ 9.4 $ 9.6 $ 9.9 $ 10.1 $ 10.3 $ 10.5 $ 10.5 $ 10.6 $ 145.4 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.5 $ 0.7 $ 0.9 $ 1.0 $ 1.1 $ 1.2 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.4 $ 1.4 $ 1.5 $ 1.5 $ 1.5 $ 1.6 $ 1.6 $ 1.6 $ 1.6 $ 22.1 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.1 $ 2.7 $ 4.8 $ 7.3 $ 10.0 $ 13.0 $ 15.1 $ 16.7 $ 18.0 $ 19.2 $ 20.1 $ 20.9 $ 21.6 $ 22.3 $ 22.8 $ 23.3 $ 23.8 $ 24.2 $ 24.3 $ 24.6 $ 335.9 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.20m Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Ground Water Systems Serving 500-999 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative, ICR Matrix Method Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.3 $ 0.8 $ 1.4 $ 2.2 $ 3.1 $ 4.2 $ 5.0 $ 5.8 $ 6.4 $ 7.0 $ 7.5 $ 8.0 $ 8.4 $ 8.7 $ 9.1 $ 9.4 $ 9.7 $ 9.9 $ 10.0 $ 10.2 $ 127.2 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 0.8 $ 0.9 $ 1.0 $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 1.2 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.4 $ 1.4 $ 1.5 $ 1.5 $ 1.5 $ 1.5 $ 19.3 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.7 $ 1.8 $ 3.3 $ 5.1 $ 7.2 $ 9.6 $ 11.6 $ 13.3 $ 14.8 $ 16.2 $ 17.4 $ 18.4 $ 19.4 $ 20.2 $ 21.0 $ 21.7 $ 22.4 $ 23.0 $ 23.3 $ 23.8 $ 294.0 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.5 $ 0.9 $ 1.4 $ 1.9 $ 2.5 $ 3.0 $ 3.4 $ 3.8 $ 4.2 $ 4.5 $ 4.8 $ 5.2 $ 5.5 $ 5.8 $ 6.1 $ 6.4 $ 6.6 $ 6.8 $ 7.1 $ 80.6 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.9 $ 0.9 $ 1.0 $ 1.0 $ 1.0 $ 1.1 $ 12.2 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.5 $ 1.2 $ 2.1 $ 3.2 $ 4.5 $ 5.9 $ 6.9 $ 7.8 $ 8.7 $ 9.6 $ 10.4 $ 11.2 $ 11.9 $ 12.7 $ 13.4 $ 14.0 $ 14.7 $ 15.4 $ 15.8 $ 16.4 $ 186.2 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.5 $ 1.3 $ 2.2 $ 3.4 $ 4.6 $ 6.0 $ 7.0 $ 7.7 $ 8.3 $ 8.8 $ 9.3 $ 9.6 $ 10.0 $ 10.2 $ 10.5 $ 10.7 $ 10.9 $ 11.1 $ 11.2 $ 11.3 $ 154.7 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.5 $ 0.7 $ 0.9 $ 1.1 $ 1.2 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.4 $ 1.5 $ 1.5 $ 1.6 $ 1.6 $ 1.6 $ 1.7 $ 1.7 $ 1.7 $ 1.7 $ 23.5 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.1 $ 2.9 $ 5.1 $ 7.7 $ 10.7 $ 13.8 $ 16.0 $ 17.8 $ 19.2 $ 20.4 $ 21.4 $ 22.3 $ 23.0 $ 23.7 $ 24.3 $ 24.8 $ 25.3 $ 25.8 $ 25.9 $ 26.2 $ 357.4 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.20n Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Ground Water Systems Serving 1,000-3,299 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative, ICR Matrix Method Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.8 $ 2.0 $ 3.6 $ 5.6 $ 7.9 $ 10.6 $ 12.7 $ 14.5 $ 16.2 $ 17.7 $ 19.0 $ 20.1 $ 21.2 $ 22.1 $ 22.9 $ 23.7 $ 24.4 $ 25.0 $ 25.3 $ 25.9 $ 321.2 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.3 $ 0.6 $ 0.9 $ 1.2 $ 1.6 $ 1.9 $ 2.2 $ 2.5 $ 2.7 $ 2.9 $ 3.1 $ 3.2 $ 3.4 $ 3.5 $ 3.6 $ 3.7 $ 3.8 $ 3.8 $ 3.9 $ 48.8 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.8 $ 4.6 $ 8.3 $ 12.9 $ 18.2 $ 24.3 $ 29.2 $ 33.5 $ 37.3 $ 40.8 $ 43.9 $ 46.5 $ 48.9 $ 51.1 $ 53.0 $ 54.8 $ 56.5 $ 58.1 $ 58.7 $ 60.0 $ 742.5 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.5 $ 1.3 $ 2.3 $ 3.5 $ 4.9 $ 6.4 $ 7.6 $ 8.6 $ 9.6 $ 10.5 $ 11.4 $ 12.2 $ 13.0 $ 13.8 $ 14.6 $ 15.3 $ 16.0 $ 16.7 $ 17.2 $ 17.8 $ 203.5 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.7 $ 1.0 $ 1.2 $ 1.3 $ 1.5 $ 1.6 $ 1.7 $ 1.9 $ 2.0 $ 2.1 $ 2.2 $ 2.3 $ 2.4 $ 2.5 $ 2.6 $ 2.7 $ 30.9 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.3 $ 3.1 $ 5.4 $ 8.1 $ 11.3 $ 14.8 $ 17.4 $ 19.8 $ 22.1 $ 24.2 $ 26.3 $ 28.2 $ 30.1 $ 32.0 $ 33.7 $ 35.5 $ 37.2 $ 38.9 $ 39.9 $ 41.4 $ 470.4 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.3 $ 3.2 $ 5.6 $ 8.5 $ 11.7 $ 15.2 $ 17.6 $ 19.5 $ 21.0 $ 22.3 $ 23.4 $ 24.3 $ 25.1 $ 25.9 $ 26.5 $ 27.1 $ 27.6 $ 28.1 $ 28.2 $ 28.5 $ 390.7 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.5 $ 0.9 $ 1.3 $ 1.8 $ 2.3 $ 2.7 $ 3.0 $ 3.2 $ 3.4 $ 3.6 $ 3.7 $ 3.8 $ 3.9 $ 4.0 $ 4.1 $ 4.2 $ 4.3 $ 4.3 $ 4.3 $ 59.4 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.9 $ 7.3 $ 13.0 $ 19.5 $ 26.9 $ 34.9 $ 40.5 $ 44.9 $ 48.5 $ 51.5 $ 54.1 $ 56.2 $ 58.2 $ 59.8 $ 61.3 $ 62.6 $ 63.9 $ 65.2 $ 65.3 $ 66.2 $ 902.7 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.20o Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Ground Water Systems Serving 3,300-9,999 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative, ICR Matrix Method Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.4 $ 3.8 $ 6.9 $ 10.6 $ 15.0 $ 20.0 $ 24.0 $ 27.5 $ 30.7 $ 33.5 $ 35.9 $ 38.1 $ 40.0 $ 41.7 $ 43.3 $ 44.8 $ 46.1 $ 47.4 $ 47.9 $ 48.9 $ 607.4 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.6 $ 1.0 $ 1.6 $ 2.3 $ 3.1 $ 3.7 $ 4.2 $ 4.7 $ 5.1 $ 5.5 $ 5.8 $ 6.1 $ 6.3 $ 6.6 $ 6.8 $ 7.0 $ 7.2 $ 7.3 $ 7.4 $ 92.3 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 3.3 $ 8.7 $ 15.7 $ 24.3 $ 34.5 $ 46.0 $ 55.2 $ 63.3 $ 70.6 $ 77.2 $ 83.0 $ 87.9 $ 92.5 $ 96.5 $ 100.2 $ 103.6 $ 106.8 $ 109.9 $ 111.1 $ 113.5 $ 1,403.9 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.0 $ 2.5 $ 4.4 $ 6.7 $ 9.3 $ 12.2 $ 14.3 $ 16.3 $ 18.1 $ 19.8 $ 21.5 $ 23.1 $ 24.6 $ 26.1 $ 27.6 $ 29.0 $ 30.3 $ 31.7 $ 32.5 $ 33.7 $ 384.7 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.4 $ 0.7 $ 1.0 $ 1.4 $ 1.9 $ 2.2 $ 2.5 $ 2.8 $ 3.0 $ 3.3 $ 3.5 $ 3.7 $ 4.0 $ 4.2 $ 4.4 $ 4.6 $ 4.8 $ 4.9 $ 5.1 $ 58.5 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.4 $ 5.8 $ 10.1 $ 15.3 $ 21.3 $ 28.0 $ 32.9 $ 37.4 $ 41.7 $ 45.8 $ 49.6 $ 53.3 $ 57.0 $ 60.4 $ 63.8 $ 67.1 $ 70.3 $ 73.5 $ 75.4 $ 78.2 $ 889.3 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.4 $ 6.0 $ 10.7 $ 16.1 $ 22.1 $ 28.7 $ 33.3 $ 36.9 $ 39.8 $ 42.2 $ 44.3 $ 46.0 $ 47.5 $ 48.9 $ 50.1 $ 51.2 $ 52.2 $ 53.1 $ 53.3 $ 54.0 $ 738.6 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.4 $ 0.9 $ 1.6 $ 2.5 $ 3.4 $ 4.4 $ 5.1 $ 5.6 $ 6.1 $ 6.4 $ 6.7 $ 7.0 $ 7.2 $ 7.4 $ 7.6 $ 7.8 $ 7.9 $ 8.0 $ 8.1 $ 8.2 $ 112.3 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 5.5 $ 13.9 $ 24.5 $ 36.9 $ 50.9 $ 66.1 $ 76.5 $ 84.9 $ 91.7 $ 97.4 $ 102.2 $ 106.3 $ 110.0 $ 113.1 $ 115.9 $ 118.4 $ 120.8 $ 123.2 $ 123.5 $ 125.2 $ 1,706.8 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.20p Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Ground Water Systems Serving 10,000-49,999 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative, ICR Matrix Method Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.8 $ 4.7 $ 8.5 $ 13.1 $ 18.5 $ 23.8 $ 28.2 $ 32.1 $ 35.5 $ 38.6 $ 41.3 $ 43.6 $ 45.8 $ 47.7 $ 49.4 $ 51.0 $ 52.5 $ 53.9 $ 54.5 $ 55.6 $ 700.0 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.3 $ 0.7 $ 1.3 $ 2.0 $ 2.8 $ 3.6 $ 4.3 $ 4.9 $ 5.4 $ 5.9 $ 6.3 $ 6.6 $ 7.0 $ 7.2 $ 7.5 $ 7.7 $ 8.0 $ 8.2 $ 8.3 $ 8.4 $ 106.4 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 4.1 $ 10.8 $ 19.5 $ 30.1 $ 42.6 $ 54.7 $ 64.8 $ 73.8 $ 81.8 $ 89.1 $ 95.3 $ 100.8 $ 105.8 $ 110.3 $ 114.3 $ 118.1 $ 121.6 $ 125.0 $ 126.4 $ 129.0 $ 1,617.9 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.3 $ 3.1 $ 5.5 $ 8.2 $ 11.4 $ 14.4 $ 16.7 $ 18.9 $ 20.9 $ 22.9 $ 24.7 $ 26.5 $ 28.3 $ 29.9 $ 31.6 $ 33.1 $ 34.7 $ 36.2 $ 37.1 $ 38.4 $ 444.0 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.5 $ 0.8 $ 1.3 $ 1.7 $ 2.2 $ 2.6 $ 2.9 $ 3.2 $ 3.5 $ 3.8 $ 4.0 $ 4.3 $ 4.6 $ 4.8 $ 5.0 $ 5.3 $ 5.5 $ 5.6 $ 5.8 $ 67.5 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.9 $ 7.2 $ 12.5 $ 18.9 $ 26.3 $ 33.1 $ 38.5 $ 43.5 $ 48.2 $ 52.8 $ 57.1 $ 61.3 $ 65.4 $ 69.3 $ 73.0 $ 76.7 $ 80.3 $ 83.9 $ 86.1 $ 89.2 $ 1,026.3 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.9 $ 7.5 $ 13.2 $ 19.9 $ 27.4 $ 34.0 $ 38.8 $ 42.6 $ 45.8 $ 48.4 $ 50.6 $ 52.5 $ 54.2 $ 55.7 $ 57.0 $ 58.2 $ 59.3 $ 60.3 $ 60.5 $ 61.3 $ 849.9 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.5 $ 1.1 $ 2.0 $ 3.0 $ 4.2 $ 5.2 $ 5.9 $ 6.5 $ 7.0 $ 7.4 $ 7.7 $ 8.0 $ 8.2 $ 8.5 $ 8.7 $ 8.8 $ 9.0 $ 9.1 $ 9.2 $ 9.3 $ 129.3 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 6.8 $ 17.2 $ 30.3 $ 45.7 $ 62.9 $ 78.2 $ 89.2 $ 98.1 $ 105.4 $ 111.7 $ 116.8 $ 121.3 $ 125.3 $ 128.8 $ 131.9 $ 134.7 $ 137.3 $ 139.9 $ 140.3 $ 142.2 $ 1,963.8 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.20q Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Ground Water Systems Serving 50,000-99,999 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative, ICR Matrix Method Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.7 $ 2.0 $ 3.5 $ 5.5 $ 7.4 $ 8.9 $ 10.3 $ 11.6 $ 12.7 $ 13.7 $ 14.5 $ 15.3 $ 16.0 $ 16.6 $ 17.1 $ 17.7 $ 18.2 $ 18.6 $ 18.8 $ 19.2 $ 248.3 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.3 $ 0.5 $ 0.8 $ 1.1 $ 1.4 $ 1.6 $ 1.8 $ 1.9 $ 2.1 $ 2.2 $ 2.3 $ 2.4 $ 2.5 $ 2.6 $ 2.7 $ 2.8 $ 2.8 $ 2.8 $ 2.9 $ 37.8 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.7 $ 4.5 $ 8.2 $ 12.6 $ 17.0 $ 20.6 $ 23.8 $ 26.7 $ 29.3 $ 31.6 $ 33.5 $ 35.3 $ 36.9 $ 38.3 $ 39.7 $ 40.9 $ 42.1 $ 43.2 $ 43.6 $ 44.5 $ 573.9 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.5 $ 1.3 $ 2.3 $ 3.4 $ 4.5 $ 5.3 $ 6.1 $ 6.8 $ 7.5 $ 8.1 $ 8.8 $ 9.4 $ 9.9 $ 10.5 $ 11.0 $ 11.6 $ 12.1 $ 12.6 $ 12.9 $ 13.4 $ 158.0 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.5 $ 0.7 $ 0.8 $ 0.9 $ 1.0 $ 1.1 $ 1.2 $ 1.3 $ 1.4 $ 1.5 $ 1.6 $ 1.7 $ 1.8 $ 1.8 $ 1.9 $ 2.0 $ 2.0 $ 24.0 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.2 $ 3.0 $ 5.2 $ 7.9 $ 10.4 $ 12.3 $ 14.0 $ 15.7 $ 17.3 $ 18.8 $ 20.2 $ 21.6 $ 23.0 $ 24.3 $ 25.5 $ 26.8 $ 28.0 $ 29.2 $ 29.9 $ 31.0 $ 365.3 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.2 $ 3.1 $ 5.5 $ 8.3 $ 10.8 $ 12.6 $ 14.0 $ 15.2 $ 16.1 $ 16.9 $ 17.6 $ 18.2 $ 18.8 $ 19.2 $ 19.7 $ 20.0 $ 20.4 $ 20.7 $ 20.8 $ 21.0 $ 300.4 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.5 $ 0.8 $ 1.3 $ 1.7 $ 1.9 $ 2.1 $ 2.3 $ 2.5 $ 2.6 $ 2.7 $ 2.8 $ 2.9 $ 2.9 $ 3.0 $ 3.0 $ 3.1 $ 3.1 $ 3.2 $ 3.2 $ 45.7 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.8 $ 7.2 $ 12.7 $ 19.1 $ 24.9 $ 29.0 $ 32.2 $ 34.9 $ 37.2 $ 39.1 $ 40.7 $ 42.1 $ 43.4 $ 44.5 $ 45.5 $ 46.4 $ 47.3 $ 48.1 $ 48.2 $ 48.8 $ 694.1 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.20r Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Ground Water Systems Serving 100,000-999,999 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative, ICR Matrix Method Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.1 $ 5.4 $ 9.8 $ 15.2 $ 19.4 $ 23.1 $ 26.4 $ 29.4 $ 32.0 $ 34.3 $ 36.3 $ 38.1 $ 39.7 $ 41.2 $ 42.5 $ 43.8 $ 45.0 $ 46.1 $ 46.5 $ 47.4 $ 623.6 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.3 $ 0.8 $ 1.5 $ 2.3 $ 3.0 $ 3.5 $ 4.0 $ 4.5 $ 4.9 $ 5.2 $ 5.5 $ 5.8 $ 6.0 $ 6.3 $ 6.5 $ 6.6 $ 6.8 $ 7.0 $ 7.0 $ 7.2 $ 94.8 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 4.8 $ 12.5 $ 22.6 $ 34.9 $ 44.5 $ 53.1 $ 60.8 $ 67.7 $ 73.8 $ 79.2 $ 83.8 $ 87.9 $ 91.8 $ 95.2 $ 98.4 $ 101.3 $ 104.1 $ 106.9 $ 107.8 $ 110.0 $ 1,441.1 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.5 $ 3.6 $ 6.3 $ 9.6 $ 11.7 $ 13.7 $ 15.5 $ 17.2 $ 18.9 $ 20.4 $ 21.9 $ 23.4 $ 24.8 $ 26.2 $ 27.5 $ 28.8 $ 30.1 $ 31.3 $ 32.1 $ 33.1 $ 397.7 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.6 $ 1.0 $ 1.5 $ 1.8 $ 2.1 $ 2.4 $ 2.6 $ 2.9 $ 3.1 $ 3.3 $ 3.6 $ 3.8 $ 4.0 $ 4.2 $ 4.4 $ 4.6 $ 4.7 $ 4.9 $ 5.0 $ 60.5 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 3.4 $ 8.3 $ 14.5 $ 22.0 $ 27.0 $ 31.5 $ 35.7 $ 39.7 $ 43.5 $ 47.2 $ 50.7 $ 54.0 $ 57.4 $ 60.6 $ 63.7 $ 66.6 $ 69.6 $ 72.6 $ 74.3 $ 76.9 $ 919.1 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 3.4 $ 8.7 $ 15.3 $ 23.1 $ 28.2 $ 32.2 $ 35.5 $ 38.1 $ 40.3 $ 42.2 $ 43.8 $ 45.2 $ 46.5 $ 47.6 $ 48.6 $ 49.5 $ 50.4 $ 51.2 $ 51.3 $ 51.9 $ 753.0 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.5 $ 1.3 $ 2.3 $ 3.5 $ 4.3 $ 4.9 $ 5.4 $ 5.8 $ 6.1 $ 6.4 $ 6.7 $ 6.9 $ 7.1 $ 7.2 $ 7.4 $ 7.5 $ 7.6 $ 7.8 $ 7.8 $ 7.9 $ 114.5 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 7.9 $ 19.9 $ 35.2 $ 53.0 $ 64.9 $ 74.1 $ 81.5 $ 87.7 $ 92.9 $ 97.4 $ 101.1 $ 104.4 $ 107.4 $ 110.1 $ 112.4 $ 114.6 $ 116.7 $ 118.8 $ 119.0 $ 120.5 $ 1,739.5 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.20s Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Ground Water Systems Serving >1,000,000 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative, ICR Matrix Method Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.3 $ 0.9 $ 1.6 $ 2.5 $ 3.2 $ 3.8 $ 4.4 $ 4.9 $ 5.3 $ 5.7 $ 6.0 $ 6.3 $ 6.6 $ 6.9 $ 7.1 $ 7.3 $ 7.5 $ 7.7 $ 7.7 $ 7.9 $ 103.9 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.8 $ 0.9 $ 0.9 $ 1.0 $ 1.0 $ 1.0 $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 1.2 $ 1.2 $ 1.2 $ 15.8 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.8 $ 2.1 $ 3.8 $ 5.8 $ 7.4 $ 8.8 $ 10.1 $ 11.3 $ 12.3 $ 13.2 $ 14.0 $ 14.6 $ 15.3 $ 15.9 $ 16.4 $ 16.9 $ 17.3 $ 17.8 $ 18.0 $ 18.3 $ 240.0 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.6 $ 1.1 $ 1.6 $ 2.0 $ 2.3 $ 2.6 $ 2.9 $ 3.1 $ 3.4 $ 3.7 $ 3.9 $ 4.1 $ 4.4 $ 4.6 $ 4.8 $ 5.0 $ 5.2 $ 5.3 $ 5.5 $ 66.2 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 10.1 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.6 $ 1.4 $ 2.4 $ 3.7 $ 4.5 $ 5.2 $ 5.9 $ 6.6 $ 7.2 $ 7.9 $ 8.4 $ 9.0 $ 9.6 $ 10.1 $ 10.6 $ 11.1 $ 11.6 $ 12.1 $ 12.4 $ 12.8 $ 153.1 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.6 $ 1.4 $ 2.5 $ 3.8 $ 4.7 $ 5.4 $ 5.9 $ 6.3 $ 6.7 $ 7.0 $ 7.3 $ 7.5 $ 7.7 $ 7.9 $ 8.1 $ 8.2 $ 8.4 $ 8.5 $ 8.5 $ 8.6 $ 125.4 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.4 $ 0.6 $ 0.7 $ 0.8 $ 0.9 $ 1.0 $ 1.0 $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 1.2 $ 1.2 $ 1.2 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 19.1 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.3 $ 3.3 $ 5.9 $ 8.8 $ 10.8 $ 12.3 $ 13.6 $ 14.6 $ 15.5 $ 16.2 $ 16.8 $ 17.4 $ 17.9 $ 18.3 $ 18.7 $ 19.1 $ 19.4 $ 19.8 $ 19.8 $ 20.1 $ 289.7 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.20t Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (All Ground Water Systems) TTHM - Preferred Alternative, ICR Matrix Method Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 7.8 $ 20.4 $ 36.9 $ 57.1 $ 77.9 $ 98.9 $ 116.4 $ 131.9 $ 145.8 $ 158.0 $ 168.7 $ 178.1 $ 186.5 $ 194.1 $ 201.1 $ 207.5 $ 213.5 $ 219.1 $ 221.5 $ 226.0 $ 2,867.3 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.2 $ 3.1 $ 5.7 $ 8.7 $ 11.9 $ 15.1 $ 17.8 $ 20.1 $ 22.2 $ 24.1 $ 25.7 $ 27.1 $ 28.4 $ 29.5 $ 30.6 $ 31.5 $ 32.4 $ 33.2 $ 33.6 $ 34.2 $ 436.0 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 17.9 $ 46.9 $ 84.9 $ 131.2 $ 179.1 $ 227.5 $ 267.7 $ 303.7 $ 335.8 $ 364.5 $ 389.4 $ 411.2 $ 431 .3 $ 449.1 $ 465.4 $ 480.3 $ 494.6 $ 508.4 $ 513.7 $ 524.4 $ 6,627.1 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 5.6 $ 13.6 $ 23.8 $ 35.9 $ 47.8 $ 59.6 $ 69.0 $ 77.7 $ 86.0 $ 93.8 $ 101.3 $ 108.5 $ 115.5 $ 122.2 $ 128.8 $ 135.1 $ 141.3 $ 147.4 $ 151.3 $ 156.6 $ 1,820.6 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.9 $ 2.1 $ 3.6 $ 5.5 $ 7.3 $ 9.1 $ 10.5 $ 11.9 $ 13.1 $ 14.3 $ 15.4 $ 16.5 $ 17.6 $ 18.6 $ 19.6 $ 20.5 $ 21.4 $ 22.3 $ 22.9 $ 23.7 $ 276.8 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 12.8 $ 31.3 $ 54.6 $ 82.5 $ 109.9 $ 137.0 $ 158.7 $ 178.9 $ 198.0 $ 216.4 $ 233.8 $ 250.5 $ 267.1 $ 282.8 $ 298.0 $ 312.8 $ 327.4 $ 341 .9 $ 350.7 $ 363.4 $ 4,208.5 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 12.8 $ 32.5 $ 57.5 $ 86.7 $ 114.5 $ 140.5 $ 159.4 $ 174.6 $ 187.0 $ 197.4 $ 206.2 $ 213.8 $ 220.4 $ 226.3 $ 231.6 $ 236.4 $ 240.8 $ 245.0 $ 245.6 $ 248.7 $ 3,477.7 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.0 $ 5.0 $ 8.8 $ 13.3 $ 17.5 $ 21.5 $ 24.4 $ 26.7 $ 28.5 $ 30.1 $ 31.4 $ 32.5 $ 33.5 $ 34.4 $ 35.2 $ 35.9 $ 36.5 $ 37.1 $ 37.2 $ 37.6 $ 529.0 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 29.5 $ 74.8 $ 132.1 $ 199.1 $ 263.3 $ 323.2 $ 366.7 $ 401 .8 $ 430.8 $ 455.5 $ 476.0 $ 493.6 $ 509.7 $ 523.5 $ 535.9 $ 547.1 $ 557.8 $ 568.3 $ 569.6 $ 577.2 $ 8,035.4 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.20u Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (All Water Systems) TTHM - Preferred Alternative, ICR Matrix Method Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ - - - $ $ 170.1 $ 441 .6 $ 799.6 $ 1 ,237.5 $ 1,613.7 $ 1 ,963.2 $ 2,276.0 $ 2,557.9 $ 2,805.8 $ 3,019.2 $ 3,205.4 $ 3,370.1 $ 3,518.0 $ 3,652.1 $ 3,775.1 $ 3,888.9 $ 3,995.0 $ 4,094.7 $ 4,134.7 $ 4,213.1 $ 54,731.8 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ - - - $ $ 26.0 $ 67.6 $ 122.4 $ 189.4 $ 246.7 $ 300.2 $ 347.7 $ 390.6 $ 427.8 $ 459.9 $ 488.1 $ 512.6 $ 534.9 $ 555.5 $ 573.9 $ 590.3 $ 605.6 $ 620.0 $ 626.6 $ 637.6 $ 8,323.3 Upper (95th %tile) $ - - - $ $ 391.1 $ 1,015.8 $ 1 ,836.8 $ 2,842.6 $ 3,709.7 $ 4,515.0 $ 5,234.0 $ 5,888.0 $ 6,464.1 $ 6,967.4 $ 7,400.5 $ 7,781.3 $ 8,136.3 $ 8,448.7 $ 8,736.5 $ 9,000.4 $ 9,253.9 $ 9,499.5 $ 9,587.0 $ 9,778.0 $ 126,486.6 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ - - - - $ 144.5 $ 346.0 $ 595.1 $ 886.9 $ 1 ,097.4 $ 1 ,282.3 $ 1 ,443.6 $ 1 ,593.4 $ 1 ,734.6 $ 1 ,868.9 $ 1 ,997.5 $ 2,121.1 $ 2,240.4 $ 2,355.8 $ 2,467.7 $ 2,576.5 $ 2,682.4 $ 2,785.7 $ 2,849.2 $ 2,939.5 $ 36,008.4 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ - - - $ $ 22.1 $ 53.0 $ 91.1 $ 135.8 $ 167.8 $ 196.1 $ 220.5 $ 243.3 $ 264.5 $ 284.7 $ 304.2 $ 322.6 $ 340.7 $ 358.3 $ 375.1 $ 391.1 $ 406.6 $ 421 .8 $ 431 .8 $ 444.8 $ 5,475.7 Upper (95th %tile) $ - - - $ $ 332.1 $ 795.9 $ 1,367.1 $ 2,037.2 $ 2,522.7 $ 2,949.0 $ 3,319.9 $ 3,667.8 $ 3,996.2 $ 4,312.9 $ 4,61 1 .7 $ 4,897.5 $ 5,181.6 $ 5,449.9 $ 5,710.9 $ 5,963.0 $ 6,213.4 $ 6,462.6 $ 6,606.2 $ 6,822.1 $ 83,219.6 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ - - - $ $ 302.2 $ 749.9 $ 1 ,306.4 $ 1 ,949.7 $ 2,412.5 $ 2,782.5 $ 3,069.1 $ 3,303.4 $ 3,499.1 $ 3,665.7 $ 3,809.8 $ 3,936.2 $ 4,048.8 $ 4,150.3 $ 4,243.0 $ 4,328.7 $ 4,408.7 $ 4,484.2 $ 4,497.1 $ 4,554.2 $ 65,501.4 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ - - - $ $ 46.3 $ 114.8 $ 199.9 $ 298.4 $ 368.8 $ 425.5 $ 468.8 $ 504.4 $ 533.5 $ 558.4 $ 580.1 $ 598.7 $ 615.7 $ 631 .2 $ 645.0 $ 657.0 $ 668.3 $ 679.0 $ 681 .5 $ 689.2 $ 9,964.6 Upper (95th %tile) $ - - - $ $ 694.7 $ 1 ,724.9 $ 3,001.1 $ 4,478.2 $ 5,545.9 $ 6,399.2 $ 7,058.1 $ 7,604.0 $ 8,061.4 $ 8,459.4 $ 8,795.7 $ 9,088.3 $ 9,363.9 $ 9,601.1 $ 9,819.3 $ 10,018.3 $ 10,212.3 $ 10,403.2 $ 10,427.2 $ 10,569.5 $ 151,325.7 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.20J and F.20t. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.20v Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 3% Discount Rate (All Water Systems) TTHM - Preferred Alternative, ICR Matrix Method Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Ann. Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 146.8 $ 369.9 $ 650.1 $ 976.9 $ 1,236.8 $ 1,460.8 $ 1,644.2 $ 1,794.0 $ 1,910.6 $ 1,996.0 $ 2,057.4 $ 2,100.2 $ 2,128.4 $ 2,145.2 $ 2,152.9 $ 2,153.2 $ 2,147.5 $ 2,137.0 $ 2,095.0 $ 2,072.6 $ 33,375.6 $ 1,916.7 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 22.5 $ 56.6 $ 99.5 $ 149.5 $ 189.1 $ 223.4 $ 251.2 $ 273.9 $ 291.3 $ 304.1 $ 313.3 $ 319.4 $ 323.7 $ 326.3 $ 327.3 $ 326.8 $ 325.5 $ 323.6 $ 317.5 $ 313.7 $ 5,078.0 $ 291.6 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 337.4 $ 850.7 $ 1,493.5 $ 2,243.9 $ 2,843.2 $ 3,359.6 $ 3,781.2 $ 4,129.7 $ 4,401.7 $ 4,606.3 $ 4,750.1 $ 4,849.1 $ 4,922.6 $ 4,962.7 $ 4,982.3 $ 4,983.3 $ 4,974.4 $ 4,957.7 $ 4,857.7 $ 4,810.2 $ 77,097.1 $ 4,427.5 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 124.6 $ 289.8 $ 483.9 $ 700.1 $ 841.1 $ 954.1 $ 1,042.9 $ 1,117.6 $ 1,181.2 $ 1,235.6 $ 1,282.1 $ 1,321.8 $ 1,355.5 $ 1,383.8 $ 1,407.3 $ 1,426.5 $ 1,441.9 $ 1,453.8 $ 1,443.6 $ 1,446.0 $ 21,933.3 $ 1,259.6 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 19.1 $ 44.4 $ 74.0 $ 107.2 $ 128.6 $ 145.9 $ 159.3 $ 170.6 $ 180.1 $ 188.2 $ 195.2 $ 201.0 $ 206.1 $ 210.5 $ 213.9 $ 216.5 $ 218.6 $ 220.1 $ 218.8 $ 218.8 $ 3,337.0 $ 191.6 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 286.5 $ 666.5 $ 1,111.6 $ 1,608.2 $ 1,933.5 $ 2,194.3 $ 2,398.3 $ 2,572.5 $ 2,721.2 $ 2,851.3 $ 2,960.1 $ 3,051.9 $ 3,135.0 $ 3,201.2 $ 3,256.9 $ 3,301.6 $ 3,340.0 $ 3,372.8 $ 3,347.3 $ 3,356.0 $ 50,666.7 $ 2,909.7 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 260.7 $ 628.1 $ 1,062.2 $ 1,539.1 $ 1,849.0 $ 2,070.4 $ 2,217.2 $ 2,316.9 $ 2,382.7 $ 2,423.5 $ 2,445.3 $ 2,452.9 $ 2,449.6 $ 2,437.8 $ 2,419.7 $ 2,396.7 $ 2,369.9 $ 2,340.3 $ 2,278.6 $ 2,240.3 $ 40,581.0 $ 2,330.5 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 39.9 $ 96.2 $ 162.6 $ 235.6 $ 282.7 $ 316.6 $ 338.7 $ 353.8 $ 363.3 $ 369.2 $ 372.3 $ 373.1 $ 372.5 $ 370.8 $ 367.8 $ 363.8 $ 359.2 $ 354.3 $ 345.3 $ 339.0 $ 6,176.7 $ 354.7 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 599.2 $ 1,444.6 $ 2,440.2 $ 3,535.2 $ 4,250.4 $ 4,761.6 $ 5,098.9 $ 5,333.3 $ 5,489.4 $ 5,592.6 $ 5,645.7 $ 5,663.5 $ 5,665.3 $ 5,639.6 $ 5,599.8 $ 5,546.9 $ 5,489.6 $ 5,429.4 $ 5,283.4 $ 5,199.5 $ 93,708.1 $ 5,381.5 Notes: Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005. Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibit F.20u. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.20w Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 7% Discount Rate (All Water Systems) TTHM - Preferred Alternative, ICR Matrix Method Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Ann. Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 121.3 $ 294.3 $ 497.9 $ 720.3 $ 877.8 $ 998.0 $ 1 ,081 .3 $ 1,135.7 $ 1,164.3 $ 1,170.9 $ 1,161.8 $ 1,141.6 $ 1,113.7 $ 1 ,080.5 $ 1 ,043.8 $ 1 ,005.0 $ 964.8 $ 924.2 $ 872.2 $ 830.6 $ 18,200.0 $ 1,561.8 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 18.6 $ 45.1 $ 76.2 $ 110.2 $ 134.2 $ 152.6 $ 165.2 $ 173.4 $ 177.5 $ 178.4 $ 176.9 $ 173.6 $ 169.4 $ 164.3 $ 158.7 $ 152.5 $ 146.3 $ 1 39.9 $ 1 32.2 $ 1 25.7 $ 2,770.9 $ 237.8 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 278.8 $ 676.9 $ 1,143.9 $ 1 ,654.4 $ 2,017.8 $ 2,295.2 $ 2,486.7 $ 2,614.3 $ 2,682.4 $ 2,702.1 $ 2,682.3 $ 2,635.8 $ 2,575.7 $ 2,499.7 $ 2,415.7 $ 2,325.9 $ 2,234.9 $ 2,144.2 $ 2,022.4 $ 1 ,927.7 $ 42,016.6 $ 3,605.5 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 103.0 $ 230.6 $ 370.6 $ 516.2 $ 596.9 $ 651 .8 $ 685.8 $ 707.5 $ 719.8 $ 724.8 $ 724.0 $ 718.5 $ 709.3 $ 697.0 $ 682.3 $ 665.8 $ 647.8 $ 628.8 $ 601 .0 $ 579.5 $ 11,961.1 $ 1,026.4 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 15.8 $ 35.3 $ 56.7 $ 79.0 $ 91.3 $ 99.7 $ 104.8 $ 108.0 $ 109.8 $ 110.4 $ 110.2 $ 109.3 $ 107.9 $ 106.0 $ 103.7 $ 101.1 $ 98.2 $ 95.2 $ 91.1 $ 87.7 $ 1,821.0 $ 156.3 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 236.8 $ 530.3 $ 851 .3 $ 1,185.7 $ 1 ,372.2 $ 1 ,499.1 $ 1 ,577.2 $ 1 ,628.6 $ 1 ,658.3 $ 1 ,672.6 $ 1 ,671 .5 $ 1 ,658.9 $ 1 ,640.4 $ 1,612.4 $ 1,579.1 $ 1 ,541 .0 $ 1 ,500.6 $ 1 ,458.7 $ 1 ,393.6 $ 1 ,344.9 $ 27,613.3 $ 2,369.5 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 215.5 $ 499.7 $ 813.6 $ 1,134.7 $ 1,312.2 $ 1,414.5 $ 1,458.1 $ 1 ,466.7 $ 1 ,452.0 $ 1 ,421 .6 $ 1 ,380.8 $ 1 ,333.3 $ 1,281.7 $ 1 ,227.9 $ 1,173.2 $ 1,118.6 $ 1 ,064.8 $ 1,012.2 $ 948.6 $ 897.8 $ 22,627.7 $ 1,941.7 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 33.0 $ 76.5 $ 124.5 $ 173.7 $ 200.6 $ 216.3 $ 222.7 $ 224.0 $ 221 .4 $ 216.6 $ 210.3 $ 202.8 $ 194.9 $ 186.8 $ 178.3 $ 169.8 $ 161.4 $ 153.2 $ 143.8 $ 135.9 $ 3,446.4 $ 295.7 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 495.3 $ 1,149.4 $ 1 ,868.9 $ 2,606.4 $ 3,016.6 $ 3,253.0 $ 3,353.2 $ 3,376.3 $ 3,345.2 $ 3,280.7 $ 3,188.0 $ 3,078.5 $ 2,964.4 $ 2,840.6 $ 2,715.1 $ 2,588.9 $ 2,466.4 $ 2,348.1 $ 2,199.6 $ 2,083.7 $ 52,218.4 $ 4,480.9 Notes: Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibit F.20u. 2005. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.20x Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 3% Discount Rate, by Small & Large Size Categories (Surface Water Systems) TTHM - Preferred Alternative, ICR Matrix Method Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Ann. Small Systems Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 3.5 $ 8.8 $ 15.5 $ 23.2 $ 31.9 $ 41.3 $ 48.1 $ 53.6 $ 57.9 $ 61.4 $ 64.0 $ 65.9 $ 67.2 $ 68.0 $ 68.6 $ 68.8 $ 68.8 $ 68.6 $ 67.4 $ 66.8 $ 1,019.2 $ 58.5 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.5 $ 1.3 $ 2.4 $ 3.6 $ 4.9 $ 6.3 $ 7.4 $ 8.2 $ 8.8 $ 9.4 $ 9.7 $ 10.0 $ 10.2 $ 10.3 $ 10.4 $ 10.4 $ 10.4 $ 10.4 $ 10.2 $ 10.1 $ 155.0 $ 8.9 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 8.0 $ 20.2 $ 35.5 $ 53.3 $ 73.3 $ 95.0 $ 110.7 $ 123.3 $ 133.5 $ 141.7 $ 147.8 $ 152.1 $ 155.4 $ 157.4 $ 158.7 $ 159.2 $ 159.3 $ 159.1 $ 156.2 $ 154.9 $ 2,354.7 $ 135.2 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.5 $ 5.9 $ 10.0 $ 14.6 $ 19.7 $ 25.1 $ 28.7 $ 31.7 $ 34.2 $ 36.4 $ 38.3 $ 40.0 $ 41.4 $ 42.6 $ 43.6 $ 44.5 $ 45.3 $ 45.9 $ 45.8 $ 46.0 $ 642.0 $ 36.9 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.4 $ 0.9 $ 1.5 $ 2.2 $ 3.0 $ 3.8 $ 4.4 $ 4.8 $ 5.2 $ 5.5 $ 5.8 $ 6.1 $ 6.3 $ 6.5 $ 6.6 $ 6.8 $ 6.9 $ 6.9 $ 6.9 $ 7.0 $ 97.6 $ 5.6 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 5.7 $ 13.5 $ 22.9 $ 33.5 $ 45.3 $ 57.8 $ 66.0 $ 72.9 $ 78.8 $ 84.0 $ 88.4 $ 92.2 $ 95.7 $ 98.5 $ 101.0 $ 103.0 $ 104.8 $ 106.4 $ 106.1 $ 106.8 $ 1,483.4 $ 85.2 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 5.7 $ 14.0 $ 24.1 $ 35.2 $ 47.1 $ 59.3 $ 66.7 $ 71.8 $ 75.2 $ 77.5 $ 78.9 $ 79.6 $ 79.8 $ 79.7 $ 79.3 $ 78.6 $ 77.8 $ 76.9 $ 74.9 $ 73.7 $ 1,255.9 $ 72.1 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.9 $ 2.1 $ 3.7 $ 5.4 $ 7.2 $ 9.1 $ 10.2 $ 11.0 $ 11.5 $ 11.8 $ 12.0 $ 12.1 $ 12.1 $ 12.1 $ 12.1 $ 11.9 $ 11.8 $ 11.6 $ 11.4 $ 11.2 $ 191.1 $ 11.0 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 13.1 $ 32.3 $ 55.3 $ 80.9 $ 108.2 $ 136.5 $ 153.4 $ 165.2 $ 173.3 $ 178.8 $ 182.1 $ 183.8 $ 184.7 $ 184.4 $ 183.5 $ 182.0 $ 180.3 $ 178.5 $ 173.7 $ 171.0 $ 2,900.9 $ 166.6 Large Systems Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 136.6 $ 344.0 $ 604.6 $ 908.6 $ 1,145.2 $ 1,345.9 $ 1,512.0 $ 1,647.9 $ 1,753.4 $ 1,830.2 $ 1,885.2 $ 1,923.3 $ 1,948.4 $ 1,963.2 $ 1,969.6 $ 1,969.5 $ 1,963.9 $ 1,954.0 $ 1,915.4 $ 1,894.7 $ 30,615.6 $ 1,758.2 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 20.9 $ 52.7 $ 92.5 $ 139.1 $ 175.1 $ 205.8 $ 231.0 $ 251.6 $ 267.4 $ 278.8 $ 287.1 $ 292.5 $ 296.3 $ 298.6 $ 299.4 $ 298.9 $ 297.7 $ 295.9 $ 290.3 $ 286.7 $ 4,658.2 $ 267.5 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 313.9 $ 791.3 $ 1,389.0 $ 2,087.0 $ 2,632.5 $ 3,095.3 $ 3,477.1 $ 3,793.4 $ 4,039.6 $ 4,223.6 $ 4,352.3 $ 4,440.7 $ 4,506.2 $ 4,541.5 $ 4,558.2 $ 4,558.1 $ 4,549.2 $ 4,533.2 $ 4,441.2 $ 4,397.2 $ 70,720.7 $ 4,061.3 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 117.4 $ 272.5 $ 454.6 $ 657.2 $ 784.8 $ 884.6 $ 964.3 $ 1,031.4 $ 1,088.4 $ 1,137.2 $ 1,178.8 $ 1,214.2 $ 1,244.2 $ 1,269.4 $ 1,290.2 $ 1,307.2 $ 1,320.7 $ 1,331.0 $ 1,321.3 $ 1,323.0 $ 20,192.5 $ 1,159.6 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 18.0 $ 41.7 $ 69.6 $ 100.6 $ 120.0 $ 135.3 $ 147.3 $ 157.5 $ 166.0 $ 173.2 $ 179.5 $ 184.7 $ 189.2 $ 193.1 $ 196.1 $ 198.4 $ 200.2 $ 201.5 $ 200.2 $ 200.2 $ 3,072.3 $ 176.4 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 269.8 $ 626.8 $ 1,044.3 $ 1,509.6 $ 1,804.0 $ 2,034.5 $ 2,217.7 $ 2,374.2 $ 2,507.6 $ 2,624.2 $ 2,721.5 $ 2,803.6 $ 2,877.7 $ 2,936.6 $ 2,985.9 $ 3,025.4 $ 3,059.2 $ 3,088.0 $ 3,063.5 $ 3,070.5 $ 46,644.4 $ 2,678.7 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 243.9 $ 586.8 $ 991.4 $ 1,435.4 $ 1,714.1 $ 1,906.5 $ 2,035.3 $ 2,122.7 $ 2,180.2 $ 2,215.5 $ 2,234.1 $ 2,240.1 $ 2,236.4 $ 2,225.2 $ 2,208.4 $ 2,187.2 $ 2,162.6 $ 2,135.5 $ 2,079.2 $ 2,044.3 $ 37,185.0 $ 2,135.5 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 37.3 $ 89.8 $ 151.7 $ 219.7 $ 262.1 $ 291.5 $ 310.9 $ 324.1 $ 332.4 $ 337.5 $ 340.2 $ 340.7 $ 340.1 $ 338.4 $ 335.7 $ 332.0 $ 327.8 $ 323.3 $ 315.1 $ 309.4 $ 5,659.9 $ 325.0 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 560.7 $ 1,349.6 $ 2,277.5 $ 3,297.1 $ 3,940.5 $ 4,384.7 $ 4,680.6 $ 4,886.2 $ 5,022.8 $ 5,112.7 $ 5,158.0 $ 5,172.2 $ 5,172.3 $ 5,147.8 $ 5,110.7 $ 5,062.0 $ 5,009.5 $ 4,954.3 $ 4,821.1 $ 4,744.5 $ 85,864.6 $ 4,931.0 Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005. Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Derived from Exhibits F.20a through F.20L Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.20y Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 7% Discount Rate, by Small & Large Size Categories (Surface Water Systems) TTHM - Preferred Alternative, ICR Matrix Method Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Ann. Small Systems Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.9 $ 7.0 $ 11.8 $ 17.1 $ 22.6 $ 28.2 $ 31.6 $ 33.9 $ 35.3 $ 36.0 $ 36.2 $ 35.8 $ 35.2 $ 34.3 $ 33.2 $ 32.1 $ 30.9 $ 29.7 $ 28.0 $ 26.8 $ 548.7 $ 47.1 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.4 $ 1.1 $ 1.8 $ 2.6 $ 3.5 $ 4.3 $ 4.8 $ 5.2 $ 5.4 $ 5.5 $ 5.5 $ 5.4 $ 5.3 $ 5.2 $ 5.1 $ 4.9 $ 4.7 $ 4.5 $ 4.3 $ 4.0 $ 83.5 $ 7.2 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 6.6 $ 16.1 $ 27.2 $ 39.3 $ 52.0 $ 64.9 $ 72.8 $ 78.0 $ 81.3 $ 83.1 $ 83.5 $ 82.7 $ 81.3 $ 79.3 $ 76.9 $ 74.3 $ 71.6 $ 68.8 $ 65.0 $ 62.1 $ 1,267.0 $ 108.7 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.0 $ 4.7 $ 7.6 $ 10.8 $ 14.0 $ 17.2 $ 18.9 $ 20.0 $ 20.8 $ 21.4 $ 21.6 $ 21.7 $ 21.6 $ 21.5 $ 21.2 $ 20.8 $ 20.3 $ 19.8 $ 19.0 $ 18.4 $ 343.4 $ 29.5 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.3 $ 0.7 $ 1.2 $ 1.6 $ 2.1 $ 2.6 $ 2.9 $ 3.1 $ 3.2 $ 3.3 $ 3.3 $ 3.3 $ 3.3 $ 3.3 $ 3.2 $ 3.2 $ 3.1 $ 3.0 $ 2.9 $ 2.8 $ 52.3 $ 4.5 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 4.7 $ 10.7 $ 17.5 $ 24.7 $ 32.1 $ 39.5 $ 43.4 $ 46.1 $ 48.0 $ 49.3 $ 49.9 $ 50.1 $ 50.1 $ 49.6 $ 49.0 $ 48.1 $ 47.1 $ 46.0 $ 44.2 $ 42.8 $ 793.0 $ 68.1 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 4.7 $ 11.2 $ 18.4 $ 26.0 $ 33.4 $ 40.5 $ 43.9 $ 45.4 $ 45.8 $ 45.4 $ 44.5 $ 43.3 $ 41.8 $ 40.1 $ 38.4 $ 36.7 $ 35.0 $ 33.3 $ 31.2 $ 29.5 $ 688.7 $ 59.1 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.7 $ 1.7 $ 2.8 $ 4.0 $ 5.1 $ 6.2 $ 6.7 $ 6.9 $ 7.0 $ 6.9 $ 6.8 $ 6.6 $ 6.4 $ 6.1 $ 5.8 $ 5.6 $ 5.3 $ 5.0 $ 4.7 $ 4.5 $ 104.9 $ 9.0 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 10.8 $ 25.7 $ 42.4 $ 59.7 $ 76.8 $ 93.2 $ 100.9 $ 104.6 $ 105.6 $ 104.9 $ 102.8 $ 99.9 $ 96.6 $ 92.9 $ 89.0 $ 85.0 $ 81.0 $ 77.2 $ 72.3 $ 68.5 $ 1,589.7 $ 136.4 Large Systems Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 112.9 $ 273.7 $ 463.1 $ 669.9 $ 812.7 $ 919.5 $ 994.3 $ 1,043.2 $ 1,068.5 $ 1,073.6 $ 1,064.5 $ 1,045.4 $ 1,019.5 $ 988.8 $ 955.0 $ 919.2 $ 882.4 $ 845.1 $ 797.4 $ 759.3 $ 16,708.2 $ 1,433.7 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 17.3 $ 41.9 $ 70.9 $ 102.5 $ 124.3 $ 140.6 $ 151.9 $ 159.3 $ 162.9 $ 163.5 $ 162.1 $ 159.0 $ 155.0 $ 150.4 $ 145.2 $ 139.5 $ 133.8 $ 128.0 $ 120.8 $ 114.9 $ 2,543.8 $ 218.3 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 259.5 $ 629.6 $ 1,063.8 $ 1,538.7 $ 1,868.3 $ 2,114.7 $ 2,286.7 $ 2,401.4 $ 2,461.7 $ 2,477.6 $ 2,457.7 $ 2,413.8 $ 2,357.9 $ 2,287.5 $ 2,210.1 $ 2,127.4 $ 2,043.9 $ 1,960.6 $ 1,849.0 $ 1,762.2 $ 38,572.0 $ 3,309.9 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 97.0 $ 216.8 $ 348.2 $ 484.5 $ 557.0 $ 604.4 $ 634.2 $ 652.9 $ 663.3 $ 667.1 $ 665.6 $ 660.0 $ 651.0 $ 639.4 $ 625.6 $ 610.1 $ 593.4 $ 575.7 $ 550.1 $ 530.2 $ 11,026.4 $ 946.2 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 14.8 $ 33.2 $ 53.3 $ 74.2 $ 85.1 $ 92.4 $ 96.9 $ 99.7 $ 101.1 $ 101.6 $ 101.4 $ 100.4 $ 99.0 $ 97.2 $ 95.1 $ 92.6 $ 89.9 $ 87.2 $ 83.4 $ 80.2 $ 1,678.8 $ 144.1 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 223.0 $ 498.7 $ 799.8 $ 1,113.0 $ 1,280.3 $ 1,390.0 $ 1,458.5 $ 1,503.0 $ 1,528.1 $ 1,539.4 $ 1,536.8 $ 1,523.9 $ 1,505.7 $ 1,479.1 $ 1,447.7 $ 1,412.0 $ 1,374.5 $ 1,335.5 $ 1,275.4 $ 1,230.5 $ 25,454.9 $ 2,184.3 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 201.6 $ 466.9 $ 759.3 $ 1,058.3 $ 1,216.5 $ 1,302.5 $ 1,338.5 $ 1,343.8 $ 1,328.6 $ 1,299.6 $ 1,261.6 $ 1,217.7 $ 1,170.2 $ 1,120.8 $ 1,070.8 $ 1,020.8 $ 971.6 $ 923.6 $ 865.6 $ 819.3 $ 20,757.6 $ 1,781.2 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 30.9 $ 71.5 $ 116.2 $ 162.0 $ 186.0 $ 199.2 $ 204.5 $ 205.2 $ 202.6 $ 198.0 $ 192.1 $ 185.2 $ 177.9 $ 170.5 $ 162.8 $ 155.0 $ 147.3 $ 139.8 $ 131.2 $ 124.0 $ 3,161.6 $ 271.3 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 463.5 $ 1,073.8 $ 1,744.3 $ 2,430.9 $ 2,796.6 $ 2,995.5 $ 3,078.1 $ 3,093.3 $ 3,060.8 $ 2,999.2 $ 2,912.6 $ 2,811.4 $ 2,706.4 $ 2,592.9 $ 2,478.0 $ 2,362.6 $ 2,250.7 $ 2,142.7 $ 2,007.1 $ 1,901.4 $ 47,901.7 $ 4,110.5 Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005. Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Derived from Exhibits F.20a through F.20L Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.20z Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 3% Discount Rate, by Small & Large Size Categories (Ground Water Systems) TTHM - Preferred Alternative, ICR Matrix Method Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Ann. Small Systems Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.4 $ 6.2 $ 10.9 $ 16.4 $ 22.5 $ 29.2 $ 34.0 $ 37.9 $ 40.9 $ 43.4 $ 45.2 $ 46.6 $ 47.5 $ 48.1 $ 48.5 $ 48.6 $ 48.6 $ 48.5 $ 47.6 $ 47.2 $ 720.3 $ 41.4 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.4 $ 1.0 $ 1.7 $ 2.5 $ 3.4 $ 4.5 $ 5.2 $ 5.8 $ 6.2 $ 6.6 $ 6.9 $ 7.1 $ 7.2 $ 7.3 $ 7.4 $ 7.4 $ 7.4 $ 7.3 $ 7.2 $ 7.1 $ 109.6 $ 6.3 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 5.6 $ 14.3 $ 25.1 $ 37.7 $ 51.8 $ 67.2 $ 78.2 $ 87.1 $ 94.3 $ 100.2 $ 104.5 $ 107.5 $ 109.8 $ 111.3 $ 112.1 $ 112.5 $ 112.6 $ 112.5 $ 110.4 $ 109.5 $ 1,664.2 $ 95.6 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.7 $ 4.1 $ 7.0 $ 10.3 $ 13.9 $ 17.8 $ 20.3 $ 22.4 $ 24.2 $ 25.7 $ 27.1 $ 28.2 $ 29.2 $ 30.1 $ 30.8 $ 31.5 $ 32.0 $ 32.4 $ 32.3 $ 32.5 $ 453.8 $ 26.1 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.3 $ 0.6 $ 1.1 $ 1.6 $ 2.1 $ 2.7 $ 3.1 $ 3.4 $ 3.7 $ 3.9 $ 4.1 $ 4.3 $ 4.4 $ 4.6 $ 4.7 $ 4.8 $ 4.8 $ 4.9 $ 4.9 $ 4.9 $ 69.0 $ 4.0 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 4.0 $ 9.5 $ 16.2 $ 23.7 $ 32.0 $ 40.9 $ 46.6 $ 51.5 $ 55.7 $ 59.4 $ 62.5 $ 65.2 $ 67.6 $ 69.7 $ 71.4 $ 72.8 $ 74.1 $ 75.2 $ 75.0 $ 75.5 $ 1,048.5 $ 60.2 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 4.0 $ 9.9 $ 17.0 $ 24.9 $ 33.3 $ 41.9 $ 47.1 $ 50.7 $ 53.2 $ 54.8 $ 55.7 $ 56.3 $ 56.4 $ 56.3 $ 56.0 $ 55.6 $ 55.0 $ 54.4 $ 53.0 $ 52.1 $ 887.6 $ 51.0 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.6 $ 1.5 $ 2.6 $ 3.8 $ 5.1 $ 6.4 $ 7.2 $ 7.7 $ 8.1 $ 8.3 $ 8.5 $ 8.6 $ 8.6 $ 8.6 $ 8.5 $ 8.4 $ 8.3 $ 8.2 $ 8.0 $ 7.9 $ 135.1 $ 7.8 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 9.3 $ 22.8 $ 39.1 $ 57.2 $ 76.5 $ 96.4 $ 108.4 $ 116.8 $ 122.5 $ 126.4 $ 128.7 $ 129.9 $ 130.5 $ 130.3 $ 129.7 $ 128.6 $ 127.4 $ 126.1 $ 122.8 $ 120.8 $ 2,050.2 $ 117.7 Large Systems Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 4.3 $ 10.9 $ 19.1 $ 28.7 $ 37.2 $ 44.4 $ 50.1 $ 54.7 $ 58.3 $ 61.0 $ 63.0 $ 64.4 $ 65.4 $ 65.9 $ 66.2 $ 66.3 $ 66.2 $ 65.9 $ 64.6 $ 64.0 $ 1,020.5 $ 58.6 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.7 $ 1.7 $ 2.9 $ 4.4 $ 5.7 $ 6.8 $ 7.7 $ 8.4 $ 8.9 $ 9.3 $ 9.6 $ 9.8 $ 9.9 $ 10.0 $ 10.1 $ 10.1 $ 10.0 $ 10.0 $ 9.8 $ 9.7 $ 155.3 $ 8.9 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 9.8 $ 25.0 $ 43.9 $ 65.9 $ 85.5 $ 102.1 $ 115.2 $ 125.9 $ 134.3 $ 140.8 $ 145.5 $ 148.7 $ 151.1 $ 152.5 $ 153.3 $ 153.4 $ 153.3 $ 152.9 $ 149.9 $ 148.5 $ 2,357.5 $ 135.4 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 3.1 $ 7.2 $ 12.3 $ 18.0 $ 22.7 $ 26.6 $ 29.6 $ 32.1 $ 34.4 $ 36.3 $ 37.9 $ 39.4 $ 40.6 $ 41.7 $ 42.6 $ 43.4 $ 44.0 $ 44.5 $ 44.3 $ 44.5 $ 645.1 $ 37.0 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.5 $ 1.1 $ 1.9 $ 2.8 $ 3.5 $ 4.1 $ 4.5 $ 4.9 $ 5.2 $ 5.5 $ 5.8 $ 6.0 $ 6.2 $ 6.3 $ 6.5 $ 6.6 $ 6.7 $ 6.7 $ 6.7 $ 6.7 $ 98.1 $ 5.6 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 7.0 $ 16.7 $ 28.2 $ 41.4 $ 52.2 $ 61.1 $ 68.0 $ 74.0 $ 79.1 $ 83.7 $ 87.6 $ 90.9 $ 94.0 $ 96.4 $ 98.6 $ 100.3 $ 101.9 $ 103.2 $ 102.7 $ 103.3 $ 1,490.4 $ 85.6 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 7.0 $ 17.3 $ 29.7 $ 43.5 $ 54.5 $ 62.6 $ 68.0 $ 71.7 $ 74.2 $ 75.7 $ 76.6 $ 77.0 $ 76.9 $ 76.6 $ 76.0 $ 75.3 $ 74.4 $ 73.5 $ 71.5 $ 70.3 $ 1,252.5 $ 71.9 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.1 $ 2.7 $ 4.6 $ 6.7 $ 8.3 $ 9.6 $ 10.4 $ 11.0 $ 11.3 $ 11.5 $ 11.7 $ 11.7 $ 11.7 $ 11.6 $ 11.6 $ 11.4 $ 11.3 $ 11.1 $ 10.8 $ 10.6 $ 190.6 $ 10.9 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 16.2 $ 39.9 $ 68.3 $ 100.0 $ 125.3 $ 144.1 $ 156.5 $ 165.1 $ 170.9 $ 174.8 $ 176.9 $ 177.7 $ 177.9 $ 177.2 $ 175.9 $ 174.3 $ 172.4 $ 170.5 $ 165.8 $ 163.1 $ 2,892.4 $ 166.1 Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005. Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Derived from Exhibits F.20k through F.20s. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.20aa Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 7% Discount Rate, by Small & Large Size Categories (Ground Water Systems) TTHM - Preferred Alternative, ICR Matrix Method Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Ann. Small Systems Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.0 $ 4.9 $ 8.4 $ 12.1 $ 16.0 $ 19.9 $ 22.4 $ 24.0 $ 25.0 $ 25.5 $ 25.6 $ 25.3 $ 24.8 $ 24.2 $ 23.5 $ 22.7 $ 21.8 $ 21.0 $ 19.8 $ 18.9 $ 387.8 $ 33.3 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.3 $ 0.8 $ 1.3 $ 1.9 $ 2.4 $ 3.1 $ 3.4 $ 3.7 $ 3.8 $ 3.9 $ 3.9 $ 3.8 $ 3.8 $ 3.7 $ 3.6 $ 3.4 $ 3.3 $ 3.2 $ 3.0 $ 2.9 $ 59.0 $ 5.1 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 4.7 $ 11.4 $ 19.2 $ 27.8 $ 36.8 $ 45.9 $ 51.4 $ 55.2 $ 57.5 $ 58.7 $ 59.0 $ 58.4 $ 57.5 $ 56.0 $ 54.4 $ 52.5 $ 50.6 $ 48.6 $ 46.0 $ 43.9 $ 895.4 $ 76.8 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.4 $ 3.3 $ 5.4 $ 7.6 $ 9.9 $ 12.1 $ 13.3 $ 14.2 $ 14.7 $ 15.1 $ 15.3 $ 15.3 $ 15.3 $ 15.2 $ 15.0 $ 14.7 $ 14.4 $ 14.0 $ 13.5 $ 13.0 $ 242.7 $ 20.8 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.5 $ 0.8 $ 1.2 $ 1.5 $ 1.9 $ 2.0 $ 2.2 $ 2.2 $ 2.3 $ 2.3 $ 2.3 $ 2.3 $ 2.3 $ 2.3 $ 2.2 $ 2.2 $ 2.1 $ 2.0 $ 2.0 $ 36.9 $ 3.2 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 3.3 $ 7.6 $ 12.4 $ 17.5 $ 22.7 $ 27.9 $ 30.7 $ 32.6 $ 33.9 $ 34.8 $ 35.3 $ 35.4 $ 35.4 $ 35.1 $ 34.6 $ 34.0 $ 33.3 $ 32.5 $ 31.2 $ 30.2 $ 560.6 $ 48.1 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 3.3 $ 7.9 $ 13.0 $ 18.4 $ 23.6 $ 28.7 $ 31.0 $ 32.1 $ 32.4 $ 32.1 $ 31.5 $ 30.6 $ 29.5 $ 28.4 $ 27.2 $ 25.9 $ 24.7 $ 23.5 $ 22.0 $ 20.9 $ 486.7 $ 41.8 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.5 $ 1.2 $ 2.0 $ 2.8 $ 3.6 $ 4.4 $ 4.7 $ 4.9 $ 4.9 $ 4.9 $ 4.8 $ 4.7 $ 4.5 $ 4.3 $ 4.1 $ 3.9 $ 3.7 $ 3.6 $ 3.3 $ 3.2 $ 74.1 $ 6.4 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 7.7 $ 18.1 $ 29.9 $ 42.2 $ 54.3 $ 65.9 $ 71.3 $ 73.9 $ 74.6 $ 74.1 $ 72.7 $ 70.6 $ 68.3 $ 65.6 $ 62.9 $ 60.0 $ 57.3 $ 54.5 $ 51.1 $ 48.4 $ 1,123.5 $ 96.4 Large Systems Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 3.5 $ 8.6 $ 14.6 $ 21.2 $ 26.4 $ 30.3 $ 32.9 $ 34.6 $ 35.5 $ 35.8 $ 35.6 $ 35.0 $ 34.2 $ 33.2 $ 32.1 $ 30.9 $ 29.7 $ 28.5 $ 26.9 $ 25.6 $ 555.4 $ 47.7 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.5 $ 1.3 $ 2.2 $ 3.2 $ 4.0 $ 4.6 $ 5.0 $ 5.3 $ 5.4 $ 5.5 $ 5.4 $ 5.3 $ 5.2 $ 5.1 $ 4.9 $ 4.7 $ 4.5 $ 4.3 $ 4.1 $ 3.9 $ 84.6 $ 7.3 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 8.1 $ 19.9 $ 33.6 $ 48.6 $ 60.7 $ 69.8 $ 75.8 $ 79.7 $ 81.9 $ 82.6 $ 82.1 $ 80.8 $ 79.1 $ 76.8 $ 74.3 $ 71.6 $ 68.9 $ 66.1 $ 62.4 $ 59.5 $ 1,282.2 $ 110.0 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.5 $ 5.8 $ 9.4 $ 13.3 $ 16.1 $ 18.1 $ 19.4 $ 20.3 $ 20.9 $ 21.3 $ 21.4 $ 21.4 $ 21.3 $ 21.0 $ 20.7 $ 20.2 $ 19.8 $ 19.2 $ 18.4 $ 17.8 $ 348.5 $ 29.9 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.4 $ 0.9 $ 1.4 $ 2.0 $ 2.5 $ 2.8 $ 3.0 $ 3.1 $ 3.2 $ 3.2 $ 3.3 $ 3.3 $ 3.2 $ 3.2 $ 3.1 $ 3.1 $ 3.0 $ 2.9 $ 2.8 $ 2.7 $ 53.1 $ 4.6 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 5.8 $ 13.3 $ 21.6 $ 30.5 $ 37.1 $ 41.7 $ 44.7 $ 46.8 $ 48.2 $ 49.1 $ 49.5 $ 49.4 $ 49.2 $ 48.6 $ 47.8 $ 46.8 $ 45.8 $ 44.6 $ 42.8 $ 41.4 $ 804.7 $ 69.1 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 5.8 $ 13.8 $ 22.8 $ 32.1 $ 38.7 $ 42.8 $ 44.7 $ 45.4 $ 45.2 $ 44.4 $ 43.3 $ 41.8 $ 40.2 $ 38.6 $ 36.9 $ 35.1 $ 33.4 $ 31.8 $ 29.8 $ 28.2 $ 694.8 $ 59.6 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.9 $ 2.1 $ 3.5 $ 4.9 $ 5.9 $ 6.5 $ 6.8 $ 6.9 $ 6.9 $ 6.8 $ 6.6 $ 6.4 $ 6.1 $ 5.9 $ 5.6 $ 5.3 $ 5.1 $ 4.8 $ 4.5 $ 4.3 $ 105.8 $ 9.1 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 13.4 $ 31.7 $ 52.3 $ 73.7 $ 88.9 $ 98.4 $ 102.9 $ 104.5 $ 104.1 $ 102.5 $ 99.9 $ 96.6 $ 93.1 $ 89.2 $ 85.3 $ 81.3 $ 77.5 $ 73.7 $ 69.0 $ 65.4 $ 1,603.5 $ 137.6 Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005. Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Derived from Exhibits F.20k through F.20s. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.20ab Mean Present Value of Benefits Yeariy Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 3% Discount Rate, by System Size (All Systems) TTHM - Preferred Alternative, ICR Matrix Method Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model 1,000-49,999 50,000-99,999 3,300-9,999 10,000-49,999 50,000-99,999 999,999 1,000-3,299 9,999 49,999 99,999 999,999 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2015 2016 2017 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBF/? December2005 ------- Exhibit F.20ac Mean Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphom (All Systems) s Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 7% Discount Rate, by System Size TTHM - Preferred Alternative, ICR Matrix Method Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Ann. <100 $ - S - $ - $ - $ - $ 00 S 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 02 $ 03 S 03 $ 04 $ 04 S 04 $ 04 $ 04 $ 04 $ 04 $ 04 $ 04 S 04 $ 03 $ 03 100-499 $ $ $ $ $ $ 03 $ 06 $ 1 1 $ 1 6 $ 2 1 $ 26 $ 29 $ 3 1 $ 33 $ 33 $ 33 $ 32 $ 3 1 $ 30 $ 29 $ 27 $ 26 $ 25 500-999 S $ $ $ s $ 03 $ 08 $ 1 3 S 1 9 $ 26 $ 32 $ 36 S 38 $ 4 1 $ 4 1 S 4 1 $ 39 $ 38 S 36 $ 35 $ 34 $ 32 $ 30 1,000-3,299 S $ $ $ s $ 1 2 $ 30 $ 5 1 S 74 $ 98 $ 122 $ 137 S 147 $ 156 $ 157 S 155 $ 149 $ 144 S 139 $ 134 $ 129 $ 122 $ 116 3,300-9,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 30 $ 74 $ 125 $ 239 $ 298 $ 334 S 358 $ 380 S 378 $ 362 $ 35 1 S 339 $ 326 $ 31 3 $ 296 $ 282 10,000-49,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 138 $ 335 $ 567 $ 820 $ 1087 $ 1307 $ 1451 $ 1549 $ 1640 $ 1622 $ 1547 $ 1499 $ 1446 $ 1390 $ 1334 $ 1260 $ 1201 50,000-99,999 S $ $ $ $ $ 115 $ 278 $ 680 $ 856 $ 974 $ 1058 S 111 3 $ 1144 $ 1153 $ 1145 S 1126 $ 1067 $ 103 1 S 993 $ 953 $ 91 3 $ 862 $ 82^ 100,000- 999599 S $ $ $ s $ 498 $ 1208 S 2956 $ 3523 $ 3942 $ 4241 S 4433 $ 4535 S 4400 $ 4154 $ 401 0 S 3858 $ 3702 $ 3544 $ 3343 $ 3183 >1, 000,000 $ $ $ $ s $ 414 $ 1003 $ 2455 $ 2926 $ 3275 $ 3523 $ 3683 $ 3768 $ 3729 $ 3657 $ 3452 $ 3332 $ 3206 $ 3076 $ 2945 $ 2778 $ 2645 Total $ $ $ $ $ $ 121 3 S 2943 $ 7203 $ 8778 S 9980 $ 1,0813 $ 1,1357 S 1,1709 $ 1,1618 S 1,0805 $ 1 ,043 8 $ 1,0050 $ 964 8 S 9242 $ 8722 $ 8306 S 18,200.0 Smoking <100 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 00 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 02 $ 02 $ 02 $ 02 $ 03 $ 03 $ 03 $ 03 $ 03 $ 02 $ 02 $ 02 $ 02 $ 02 100-499 $ $ $ $ $ $ 02 $ 04 S 1 0 $ 1 3 $ 1 6 $ 1 7 S 1 9 $ 20 $ 20 S 20 $ 20 $ 20 S 1 9 $ 1 9 $ 1 8 $ 1 7 500-999 $ $ $ $ S $ 02 $ 05 $ 1 2 $ 1 6 $ 1 9 $ 2 1 $ 23 $ 24 $ 24 $ 25 $ 24 $ 24 $ 24 $ 23 $ 22 $ 22 $ 2 1 1,000-3,299 $ S $ $ $ $ 09 S 20 $ 47 $ 6 1 S 74 $ 82 $ 87 S 93 $ 94 $ 94 $ 93 $ 92 $ 90 S 86 $ 83 $ 80 /Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model 3,300-9,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 22 $ 49 $ 114 $ 148 $ 181 $ 199 $ 21 2 $ 220 $ 225 $ 229 $ 227 $ 21 9 $ 21 5 $ 209 $ 201 $ 195 10,000-49,999 $ $ $ $ S $ 117 $ 262 $ 586 $ 752 $ 873 $ 936 $ 977 $ 101 6 $ 101 6 $ 1006 $ 99 1 $ 95 1 $ 927 $ 90 1 $ 862 $ 832 50,000-99,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 98 $ 2,B $ 489 $ 589 $ 641 $ 675 $ 697 $ 71 5 $ 709 « B= = $ 657 $ 640 $ 621 $ 593 $ 572 100,000- 999,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 426 S 952 $ 2129 $ 2395 S 257 1 $ 2688 $ 276 1 S 281 3 $ 2779 S 2689 $ 2564 S 241 8 $ 231 0 $ 2226 >1, 000,000 s $ $ $ $ 355 S 794 $ 1774 $ 1995 S 214 1 $ 2237 $ 2297 S 2340 $ 231 1 $ 2236 $ 213 1 S 201 0 $ 1920 $ 1850 Total $ S $ $ $ 1030 S 2306 $ 5162 $ 5969 S 651 8 $ 6858 $ 7075 S 7248 $ 7185 S 6970 $ 6658 S 6288 $ 601 0 $ 5795 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model <100 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 03 $ 04 $ 05 $ 05 $ 05 $ 05 $ 05 $ 05 $ 04 $ 04 $ 04 $ 04 100-499 S $ $ s $ 04 $ 1 0 $ 1 7 S 24 $ 3 1 $ 37 $ 40 S 42 $ 42 S 40 $ 37 S 34 $ 3 1 $ 29 $ 27 500-999 $ S $ $ $ 05 S 1 3 $ 2 1 $ 29 $ 38 S 46 $ 50 $ 5 1 S 5 1 $ 49 S 45 $ 42 S 38 $ 35 $ 33 1,000-3,299 S $ $ $ $ 20 $ 80 S 113 $ 145 $ 176 $ 190 S 197 $ 197 « ,== $ 174 S 159 $ 144 $ 135 $ HB_ 3,300-9,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 50 $ 195 $ 274 $ 353 $ 428 $ 463 $ 480 $ 480 $ 457 $ 424 $ 369 $ 35 1 $ 329 $ 31 2 10,000- 49,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 245 $ 925 $ 129 1 $ 1649 $ 1898 $ 2009 $ 2052 $ 2023 $ 1975 $ 191 4 $ 1845 $ 1772 $ 1696 $ 161 9 $ 1542 $ 1376 $ 1303 50,000-99,999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 204 $ 473 $ 769 $ 1072 $ 1289 $ 1388 $ 1434 $ 1444 $ 1402 $ 1362 $ 131 6 $ 1265 $ 121 2 $ 1105 $ 1052 $ 1000 $ 937 _$ 887_ 100,000- 999,999 S $ $ $ $ $ 887 S 2056 $ 3345 $ 4664 $ 525 1 S 5553 $ 5675 $ 5679 S 547 1 $ 5305 $ 511 6 $ 491 3 $ 4703 $ 449 1 $ 428 1 $ 4073 $ 3627 $ 3433 > 1,000,000 $ $ $ $ $ $ 738 S 171 0 $ 2782 $ 4364 S 461 3 $ 471 5 $ 471 7 S 4544 $ 4406 $ 4249 $ 3907 $ 373 1 $ 3555 $ 3383 S 321 5 $ 301 3 $ 285 1 $ 627.3 Total S $ $ $ s $ 2155 $ 4997 $ 8136 S 1,1347 $ 1,3122 $ 1,4145 $ 1 ,458 1 S 1 ,466 7 $ 1,4216 S 1,3333 $ 1,2817 $ 1,2279 $ 1,1732 S 1,1186 $ 1 ,064 8 $ 1,0122 $ 9486 $ 1,941.7 Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Section F.21 Model Outputs - Preferred Alternative, SWAT Method TTHM as Indicator Lymphoma for Non-Fatal Cases ------- ------- Exhibit F.21a Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Surface Water Systems Serving <100 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative, SWAT Method Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 2.2 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.3 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 5.0 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 1.4 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.2 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 3.2 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 2.6 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.4 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 6.0 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.21b Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Surface Water Systems Serving 100-499 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative, SWAT Method Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.5 $ 0.7 $ 0.8 $ 0.9 $ 1.0 $ 1.1 $ 1.2 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.4 $ 1.4 $ 1.5 $ 1.5 $ 1.6 $ 1.6 $ 1.6 $ 20.0 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 3.0 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.3 $ 0.5 $ 0.8 $ 1.1 $ 1.5 $ 1.8 $ 2.1 $ 2.3 $ 2.5 $ 2.7 $ 2.9 $ 3.1 $ 3.2 $ 3.3 $ 3.4 $ 3.5 $ 3.6 $ 3.7 $ 3.7 $ 46.2 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.9 $ 0.9 $ 1.0 $ 1.0 $ 1.0 $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 12.8 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 2.0 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.7 $ 1.0 $ 1.1 $ 1.3 $ 1.4 $ 1.5 $ 1.7 $ 1.8 $ 1.9 $ 2.0 $ 2.1 $ 2.2 $ 2.3 $ 2.4 $ 2.5 $ 2.6 $ 29.7 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.7 $ 0.9 $ 1.1 $ 1.2 $ 1.3 $ 1.4 $ 1.4 $ 1.5 $ 1.6 $ 1.6 $ 1.6 $ 1.7 $ 1.7 $ 1.7 $ 1.7 $ 1.8 $ 24.2 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 3.7 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.5 $ 0.8 $ 1.2 $ 1.7 $ 2.2 $ 2.5 $ 2.8 $ 3.0 $ 3.2 $ 3.3 $ 3.5 $ 3.6 $ 3.7 $ 3.8 $ 3.9 $ 4.0 $ 4.0 $ 4.0 $ 4.1 $ 56.0 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.21c Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Surface Water Systems Serving 500-999 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative, SWAT Method Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.4 $ 0.6 $ 0.9 $ 1.2 $ 1.4 $ 1.6 $ 1.8 $ 1.9 $ 2.1 $ 2.2 $ 2.3 $ 2.4 $ 2.5 $ 2.6 $ 2.7 $ 2.8 $ 2.8 $ 2.8 $ 35.2 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 5.4 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.5 $ 0.9 $ 1.4 $ 2.0 $ 2.7 $ 3.2 $ 3.7 $ 4.1 $ 4.5 $ 4.8 $ 5.1 $ 5.4 $ 5.6 $ 5.8 $ 6.0 $ 6.2 $ 6.4 $ 6.5 $ 6.6 $ 81.5 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.6 $ 0.7 $ 0.9 $ 1.0 $ 1.1 $ 1.2 $ 1.3 $ 1.4 $ 1.4 $ 1.5 $ 1.6 $ 1.7 $ 1.8 $ 1.8 $ 1.9 $ 2.0 $ 22.6 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 3.4 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.4 $ 0.6 $ 0.9 $ 1.3 $ 1.7 $ 2.0 $ 2.2 $ 2.5 $ 2.7 $ 2.9 $ 3.1 $ 3.3 $ 3.5 $ 3.7 $ 3.9 $ 4.1 $ 4.3 $ 4.4 $ 4.5 $ 52.3 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.4 $ 0.6 $ 0.9 $ 1.3 $ 1.7 $ 1.9 $ 2.1 $ 2.3 $ 2.4 $ 2.6 $0 7 Z. / $ 2.7 $ 2.8 $ 2.9 $ 3.0 $ 3.0 $ 3.1 $ 3.1 $ 3.1 $ 42.7 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 6.5 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.3 $ 0.8 $ 1.4 $ 2.2 $ 3.0 $ 3.8 $ 4.4 $ 4.9 $ 5.3 $ 5.6 $ 5.9 $ 6.1 $ 6.3 $ 6.5 $ 6.7 $ 6.8 $ 7.0 $ 7.1 $ 7.1 $ 7.2 $ 98.7 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.21d Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Surface Water Systems Serving 1,000-3,299 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative, SWAT Method Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.5 $ 1.4 $ 2.5 $ 3.9 $ 5.6 $ 7.5 $ 8.9 $ 10.3 $ 11.5 $ 12.5 $ 13.5 $ 14.3 $ 15.0 $ 15.6 $ 16.2 $ 16.8 $ 17.3 $ 17.7 $ 17.9 $ 18.3 $ 227.3 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.4 $ 0.6 $ 0.9 $ 1.1 $ 1.4 $ 1.6 $ 1.7 $ 1.9 $ 2.0 $ 2.2 $ 2.3 $ 2.4 $ 2.5 $ 2.5 $ 2.6 $ 2.7 $ 2.7 $ 2.8 $ 34.6 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.2 $ 3.2 $ 5.8 $ 9.0 $ 12.8 $ 17.1 $ 20.6 $ 23.6 $ 26.4 $ 28.9 $ 31.1 $ 32.9 $ 34.7 $ 36.2 $ 37.5 $ 38.8 $ 40.0 $ 41.1 $ 41.6 $ 42.5 $ 525.3 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.4 $ 1.0 $ 1.7 $ 2.6 $ 3.6 $ 4.7 $ 5.5 $ 6.2 $ 6.9 $ 7.6 $ 8.2 $ 8.8 $ 9.3 $ 9.9 $ 10.4 $ 10.9 $ 11.4 $ 11.9 $ 12.2 $ 12.6 $ 145.9 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.6 $ 0.7 $ 0.8 $ 1.0 $ 1.1 $ 1.2 $ 1.2 $ 1.3 $ 1.4 $ 1.5 $ 1.6 $ 1.7 $ 1.7 $ 1.8 $ 1.8 $ 1.9 $ 22.2 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.9 $ 2.3 $ 4.0 $ 6.0 $ 8.3 $ 10.9 $ 12.7 $ 14.4 $ 15.9 $ 17.4 $ 18.9 $ 20.2 $ 21.6 $ 22.8 $ 24.1 $ 25.2 $ 26.4 $ 27.6 $ 28.3 $ 29.3 $ 337.2 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.9 $ 2.3 $ 4.0 $ 6.1 $ 8.3 $ 10.8 $ 12.4 $ 13.8 $ 14.8 $ 15.7 $ 16.5 $ 17.1 $ 17.7 $ 18.2 $ 18.6 $ 19.0 $ 19.4 $ 19.8 $ 19.8 $ 20.1 $ 275.3 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.4 $ 0.6 $ 0.9 $ 1.3 $ 1.6 $ 1.9 $ 2.1 $ 2.3 $ 2.4 $ 2.5 $ 2.6 $ 2.7 $ 2.8 $ 2.8 $ 2.9 $ 2.9 $ 3.0 $ 3.0 $ 3.0 $ 41.9 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.1 $ 5.3 $ 9.3 $ 13.9 $ 19.1 $ 24.8 $ 28.6 $ 31.7 $ 34.2 $ 36.3 $ 38.0 $ 39.5 $ 40.9 $ 42.1 $ 43.1 $ 44.1 $ 45.0 $ 45.8 $ 46.0 $ 46.6 $ 636.2 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.21e Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Surface Water Systems Serving 3,300-9,999 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative, SWAT Method Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.5 $ 4.0 $ 7.3 $ 11.3 $ 16.0 $ 21.3 $ 25.6 $ 29.4 $ 32.8 $ 35.8 $ 38.5 $ 40.8 $ 42.9 $ 44.7 $ 46.4 $ 48.0 $ 49.4 $ 50.7 $ 51.3 $ 52.4 $ 650.1 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.6 $ 1.1 $ 1.7 $ 2.4 $ 3.3 $ 3.9 $ 4.5 $ 5.0 $ 5.5 $ 5.9 $ 6.2 $ 6.5 $ 6.8 $ 7.1 $ 7.3 $ 7.5 $ 7.7 $ 7.8 $ 7.9 $ 98.8 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 3.5 $ 9.2 $ 16.7 $ 25.9 $ 36.7 $ 49.0 $ 58.9 $ 67.6 $ 75.5 $ 82.7 $ 88.9 $ 94.2 $ 99.2 $ 103.5 $ 107.4 $ 111.0 $ 114.4 $ 117.7 $ 119.0 $ 121.6 $ 1,502.6 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.2 $ 2.9 $ 5.0 $ 7.5 $ 10.3 $ 13.5 $ 15.8 $ 17.9 $ 19.8 $ 21.6 $ 23.4 $ 25.1 $ 26.7 $ 28.2 $ 29.7 $ 31.2 $ 32.6 $ 34.0 $ 34.9 $ 36.1 $ 417.3 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.4 $ 0.8 $ 1.1 $ 1.6 $ 2.1 $ 2.4 $ 2.7 $ 3.0 $ 3.3 $ 3.6 $ 3.8 $ 4.1 $ 4.3 $ 4.5 $ 4.7 $ 4.9 $ 5.2 $ 5.3 $ 5.5 $ 63.4 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.7 $ 6.6 $ 11.4 $ 17.1 $ 23.7 $ 31.1 $ 36.3 $ 41.1 $ 45.6 $ 49.9 $ 54.0 $ 57.8 $ 61.7 $ 65.3 $ 68.8 $ 72.2 $ 75.6 $ 78.9 $ 81.0 $ 83.9 $ 964.6 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.6 $ 6.6 $ 11.5 $ 17.3 $ 23.8 $ 30.8 $ 35.6 $ 39.3 $ 42.4 $ 45.0 $ 47.1 $ 49.0 $ 50.6 $ 52.0 $ 53.3 $ 54.5 $ 55.5 $ 56.5 $ 56.7 $ 57.5 $ 787.6 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.4 $ 1.0 $ 1.8 $ 2.7 $ 3.6 $ 4.7 $ 5.4 $ 6.0 $ 6.5 $ 6.8 $ 7.2 $ 7.4 $ 7.7 $ 7.9 $ 8.1 $ 8.3 $ 8.4 $ 8.6 $ 8.6 $ 8.7 $ 119.8 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 6.0 $ 15.1 $ 26.5 $ 39.8 $ 54.7 $ 70.9 $ 81.9 $ 90.6 $ 97.7 $ 103.7 $ 108.8 $ 113.0 $ 117.0 $ 120.3 $ 123.3 $ 126.0 $ 128.6 $ 131.1 $ 131.5 $ 133.4 $ 1,820.0 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.21f Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Surface Water Systems Serving 10,000-49,999 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative, SWAT Method Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 10.0 $ 25.8 $ 46.8 $ 72.4 $ 102.8 $ 132.5 $ 157.6 $ 180.3 $ 200.7 $ 218.9 $ 234.7 $ 248.3 $ 260.4 $ 271 .3 $ 281 .2 $ 290.2 $ 298.6 $ 306.5 $ 309.8 $ 315.9 $ 3,964.7 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.5 $ 4.0 $ 7.2 $ 11.1 $ 15.7 $ 20.3 $ 24.1 $ 27.5 $ 30.6 $ 33.3 $ 35.7 $ 37.8 $ 39.6 $ 41.3 $ 42.7 $ 44.1 $ 45.3 $ 46.4 $ 46.9 $ 47.8 $ 602.8 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 22.9 $ 59.5 $ 107.4 $ 166.3 $ 236.3 $ 304.7 $ 362.5 $ 415.0 $ 462.5 $ 505.2 $ 541.8 $ 573.3 $ 602.3 $ 627.6 $ 650.7 $ 671.7 $ 691.7 $ 711.0 $ 718.3 $ 733.2 $ 9,163.8 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 9.1 $ 21.6 $ 36.9 $ 54.7 $ 74.8 $ 92.4 $ 105.5 $ 117.3 $ 128.2 $ 138.5 $ 148.3 $ 157.7 $ 166.7 $ 175.4 $ 183.8 $ 191.9 $ 199.9 $ 207.6 $ 212.3 $ 219.1 $2,641.5 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.4 $ 3.3 $ 5.6 $ 8.4 $ 11.4 $ 14.1 $ 16.1 $ 17.9 $ 19.5 $ 21.1 $ 22.6 $ 24.0 $ 25.3 $ 26.7 $ 27.9 $ 29.1 $ 30.3 $ 31.4 $ 32.2 $ 33.2 $ 401.7 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 20.8 $ 49.6 $ 84.7 $ 125.6 $ 172.0 $ 212.5 $ 242.6 $ 269.9 $ 295.4 $ 319.6 $ 342.4 $ 364.1 $ 385.5 $ 405.7 $ 425.3 $ 444.2 $ 463.0 $ 481.6 $ 492.3 $ 508.4 $ 6,105.3 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 18.3 $ 45.0 $ 78.0 $ 115.9 $ 158.0 $ 193.9 $ 218.7 $ 238.5 $ 254.8 $ 268.5 $ 280.3 $ 290.6 $ 299.7 $ 307.9 $ 315.3 $ 322.2 $ 328.5 $ 334.5 $ 335.8 $ 340.3 $ 4,744.7 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.8 $ 6.9 $ 11.9 $ 17.7 $ 24.1 $ 29.6 $ 33.4 $ 36.4 $ 38.8 $ 40.9 $ 42.7 $ 44.2 $ 45.6 $ 46.8 $ 47.9 $ 48.9 $ 49.8 $ 50.7 $ 50.9 $ 51.5 $ 721.7 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 42.1 $ 103.6 $ 179.2 $ 266.3 $ 363.1 $ 445.9 $ 502.9 $ 548.9 $ 586.9 $ 619.6 $ 647.1 $ 670.9 $ 693.1 $ 712.2 $ 729.7 $ 745.6 $ 761.0 $ 776.1 $ 778.6 $ 789.9 $ 10,963.0 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.21g Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Surface Water Systems Serving 50,000-99,999 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative, SWAT Method Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 8.7 $ 22.5 $ 40.7 $ 63.1 $ 85.0 $ 103.7 $ 120.8 $ 136.2 $ 150.0 $ 161.8 $ 172.0 $ 181.0 $ 189.0 $ 196.3 $ 203.0 $ 209.1 $ 214.9 $ 220.3 $ 222.4 $ 226.6 $ 2,927.3 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.3 $ 3.4 $ 6.2 $ 9.7 $ 13.0 $ 15.9 $ 18.4 $ 20.8 $ 22.9 $ 24.6 $ 26.2 $ 27.5 $ 28.7 $ 29.9 $ 30.9 $ 31.7 $ 32.6 $ 33.3 $ 33.7 $ 34.3 $ 445.2 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 20.0 $ 51.8 $ 93.6 $ 144.9 $ 195.5 $ 238.6 $ 277.7 $ 313.6 $ 345.5 $ 373.4 $ 397.1 $ 417.9 $ 437.2 $ 454.2 $ 469.8 $ 484.0 $ 497.7 $ 511.0 $ 515.7 $ 526.0 $ 6,765.2 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 7.9 $ 18.8 $ 32.1 $ 47.7 $ 61.1 $ 70.7 $ 79.4 $ 87.4 $ 94.8 $ 101.9 $ 108.7 $ 115.2 $ 121.5 $ 127.5 $ 133.4 $ 139.1 $ 144.6 $ 150.0 $ 153.3 $ 158.0 $1,953.3 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.2 $ 2.9 $ 4.9 $ 7.3 $ 9.3 $ 10.8 $ 12.1 $ 13.3 $ 14.5 $ 15.5 $ 16.6 $ 17.5 $ 18.5 $ 19.4 $ 20.3 $ 21.1 $ 21.9 $ 22.7 $ 23.2 $ 23.9 $ 297.0 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 18.2 $ 43.2 $ 73.8 $ 109.5 $ 140.5 $ 162.7 $ 182.6 $ 201.1 $ 218.5 $ 235.2 $ 251.0 $ 266.0 $ 280.9 $ 295.0 $ 308.7 $ 321.9 $ 335.0 $ 348.1 $ 355.5 $ 366.8 $ 4,514.2 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 16.0 $ 39.2 $ 68.0 $ 101.0 $ 129.4 $ 148.5 $ 163.7 $ 176.1 $ 186.5 $ 195.3 $ 203.0 $ 209.8 $ 215.9 $ 221 .3 $ 226.4 $ 231 .0 $ 235.4 $ 239.5 $ 240.3 $ 243.4 $ 3,489.5 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.4 $ 6.0 $ 10.4 $ 15.5 $ 19.8 $ 22.7 $ 25.0 $ 26.9 $ 28.4 $ 29.8 $ 30.9 $ 31.9 $ 32.8 $ 33.7 $ 34.4 $ 35.1 $ 35.7 $ 36.3 $ 36.4 $ 36.8 $ 530.9 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 36.7 $ 90.3 $ 156.1 $ 232.0 $ 297.4 $ 341.6 $ 376.4 $ 405.3 $ 429.6 $ 450.7 $ 468.7 $ 484.4 $ 499.2 $ 512.0 $ 523.9 $ 534.7 $ 545.2 $ 555.6 $ 557.1 $ 564.9 $ 8,061.9 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.21h Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Surface Water Systems Serving 100,000-999,999 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative, SWAT Method Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 38.5 $ 99.6 $ 180.3 $ 279.1 $ 356.2 $ 427.3 $ 492.8 $ 552.2 $ 603.9 $ 647.7 $ 685.9 $ 719.9 $ 750.3 $ 778.1 $ 803.5 $ 827.1 $ 849.1 $ 869.8 $ 877.8 $ 894.1 $ 11,733.1 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 5.9 $ 15.3 $ 27.6 $ 42.7 $ 54.5 $ 65.3 $ 75.3 $ 84.3 $ 92.1 $ 98.7 $ 104.4 $ 109.5 $ 114.1 $ 118.3 $ 122.1 $ 125.5 $ 128.7 $ 131.7 $ 133.0 $ 135.3 $ 1,784.4 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 88.5 $ 229.2 $ 414.1 $ 641.1 $ 818.9 $ 982.7 $ 1,133.3 $ 1,271.0 $ 1,391.2 $ 1,494.7 $ 1,583.6 $ 1,662.1 $ 1,735.4 $ 1,799.9 $ 1,859.5 $ 1,914.1 $ 1,966.7 $ 2,017.8 $ 2,035.4 $ 2,075.1 $ 27,114.4 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 35.0 $ 83.1 $ 142.1 $ 210.8 $ 252.1 $ 288.1 $ 320.9 $ 351.4 $ 380.2 $ 407.6 $ 433.8 $ 459.0 $ 483.3 $ 506.8 $ 529.6 $ 551.8 $ 573.4 $ 594.5 $ 607.1 $ 625.4 $ 7,836.3 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 5.4 $ 12.7 $ 21.8 $ 32.3 $ 38.5 $ 44.1 $ 49.0 $ 53.7 $ 58.0 $ 62.1 $ 66.1 $ 69.8 $ 73.5 $ 77.1 $ 80.5 $ 83.8 $ 86.9 $ 90.0 $ 92.0 $ 94.6 $ 1,191.8 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 80.4 $ 191.2 $ 326.5 $ 484.3 $ 579.5 $ 662.6 $ 738.0 $ 809.0 $ 876.0 $ 940.7 $ 1 ,001 .6 $ 1 ,059.9 $ 1,117.9 $ 1,172.5 $ 1 ,225.7 $ 1,277.1 $ 1 ,328.2 $ 1,379.1 $ 1 ,407.6 $ 1 ,451 .5 $ 18,109.2 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 70.6 $ 173.6 $ 300.7 $ 446.9 $ 535.5 $ 603.8 $ 658.9 $ 704.4 $ 742.9 $ 775.9 $ 804.8 $ 830.3 $ 853.3 $ 874.1 $ 893.3 $ 911.2 $ 928.0 $ 943.8 $ 946.6 $ 958.7 $ 13,957.1 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 10.8 $ 26.6 $ 46.0 $ 68.4 $ 81.9 $ 92.3 $ 100.6 $ 107.6 $ 113.3 $ 118.2 $ 122.5 $ 126.3 $ 129.7 $ 132.9 $ 135.8 $ 138.3 $ 140.7 $ 142.9 $ 143.4 $ 145.1 $ 2,123.4 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 162.2 $ 399.3 $ 690.7 $ 1,026.5 $ 1,231.0 $ 1,388.6 $ 1,515.2 $ 1,621.4 $ 1,711.4 $ 1,790.5 $ 1,858.0 $ 1,917.1 $ 1,973.4 $ 2,022.2 $ 2,067.4 $ 2,108.8 $ 2,149.5 $ 2,189.7 $ 2,194.8 $ 2,225.0 $ 32,242.8 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.21 i Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Surface Water Systems Serving >1,000,000 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative, SWAT Method Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 32.7 $ 84.8 $ 153.4 $ 237.5 $ 303.2 $ 363.7 $ 419.4 $ 469.9 $ 513.9 $ 551 .2 $ 583.8 $ 612.6 $ 638.6 $ 662.2 $ 683.8 $ 703.9 $ 722.6 $ 740.2 $ 747.1 $ 760.9 $ 9,985.5 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 5.0 $ 13.0 $ 23.5 $ 36.4 $ 46.3 $ 55.6 $ 64.1 $ 71.8 $ 78.4 $ 84.0 $ 88.9 $ 93.2 $ 97.1 $ 100.7 $ 104.0 $ 106.8 $ 109.5 $ 112.1 $ 113.2 $ 115.2 $ 1,518.6 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 75.3 $ 195.0 $ 352.4 $ 545.6 $ 696.9 $ 836.4 $ 964.5 $ 1,081.7 $ 1,184.0 $ 1,272.1 $ 1,347.8 $ 1,414.5 $ 1,476.9 $ 1,531.9 $ 1,582.5 $ 1,629.0 $ 1,673.8 $ 1,717.3 $ 1,732.2 $ 1,766.0 $ 23,075.9 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 29.8 $ 70.7 $ 121.0 $ 179.4 $ 214.6 $ 245.2 $ 273.1 $ 299.1 $ 323.6 $ 346.9 $ 369.2 $ 390.7 $ 411.3 $ 431.4 $ 450.8 $ 469.6 $ 488.0 $ 505.9 $ 516.6 $ 532.3 $ 6,669.2 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 4.6 $ 10.8 $ 18.5 $ 27.5 $ 32.8 $ 37.5 $ 41.7 $ 45.7 $ 49.3 $ 52.8 $ 56.2 $ 59.4 $ 62.6 $ 65.6 $ 68.5 $ 71.3 $ 74.0 $ 76.6 $ 78.3 $ 80.6 $ 1,014.3 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 68.4 $ 162.7 $ 277.9 $ 412.1 $ 493.2 $ 563.9 $ 628.1 $ 688.5 $ 745.5 $ 800.6 $ 852.4 $ 902.0 $ 951 .4 $ 997.9 $ 1 ,043.2 $ 1 ,086.9 $ 1,130.4 $ 1,173.7 $ 1,197.9 $ 1 ,235.3 $ 15,412.0 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 60.1 $ 147.7 $ 255.9 $ 380.3 $ 455.7 $ 513.9 $ 560.7 $ 599.5 $ 632.2 $ 660.3 $ 684.9 $ 706.6 $ 726.2 $ 743.9 $ 760.3 $ 775.5 $ 789.7 $ 803.3 $ 805.6 $ 815.9 $ 11,878.3 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 9.2 $ 22.6 $ 39.2 $ 58.2 $ 69.7 $ 78.6 $ 85.7 $ 91.5 $ 96.4 $ 100.6 $ 104.3 $ 107.5 $ 110.4 $ 113.1 $ 115.6 $ 117.7 $ 119.7 $ 121.6 $ 122.1 $ 123.5 $ 1,807.1 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 138.1 $ 339.8 $ 587.9 $ 873.6 $ 1,047.6 $ 1,181.8 $ 1,289.5 $ 1,379.9 $ 1,456.5 $ 1,523.9 $ 1,581.2 $ 1,631.6 $ 1,679.5 $ 1,721.0 $ 1,759.5 $ 1,794.7 $ 1,829.3 $ 1,863.5 $ 1,867.9 $ 1,893.6 $ 27,440.5 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.21J Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (All Surface Water Systems) TTHM - Preferred Alternative, SWAT Method Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 92.1 $ 238.6 $ 431.7 $ 668.3 $ 870.2 $ 1,057.9 $ 1,227.4 $ 1,380.8 $ 1,515.6 $ 1,631.2 $ 1,731.7 $ 1,820.5 $ 1,900.0 $ 1,972.1 $ 2,038.2 $ 2,099.3 $ 2,156.2 $ 2,209.6 $ 2,230.9 $ 2,272.9 $ 29,545.3 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 14.1 $ 36.5 $ 66.1 $ 102.3 $ 133.0 $ 161.8 $ 187.5 $ 210.8 $ 231.1 $ 248.5 $ 263.7 $ 276.9 $ 288.9 $ 300.0 $ 309.8 $ 318.6 $ 326.8 $ 334.6 $ 338.1 $ 344.0 $ 4,493.1 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 211.8 $ 548.8 $ 991.7 $ 1,535.1 $ 2,000.3 $ 2,432.9 $ 2,822.7 $ 3,178.5 $ 3,491.7 $ 3,764.2 $ 3,998.1 $ 4,203.3 $ 4,394.4 $ 4,562.3 $ 4,716.9 $ 4,858.5 $ 4,994.5 $ 5,126.3 $ 5,172.8 $ 5,275.1 $ 68,279.8 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 83.4 $ 198.3 $ 339.2 $ 503.3 $ 617.4 $ 715.9 $ 801.6 $ 880.8 $ 955.4 $ 1,026.1 $ 1,093.7 $ 1,158.6 $ 1,221.2 $ 1,281.7 $ 1,340.3 $ 1,397.3 $ 1,452.8 $ 1,506.9 $ 1,539.6 $ 1,586.8 $ 19,700.3 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 12.8 $ 30.4 $ 51.9 $ 77.0 $ 94.4 $ 109.5 $ 122.5 $ 134.5 $ 145.7 $ 156.3 $ 166.5 $ 176.2 $ 185.7 $ 194.9 $ 203.8 $ 212.1 $ 220.2 $ 228.2 $ 233.3 $ 240.1 $ 2,995.9 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 191.7 $ 456.2 $ 779.3 $ 1,156.1 $ 1,419.3 $ 1,646.4 $ 1,843.4 $ 2,027.6 $ 2,201.0 $ 2,367.9 $ 2,525.0 $ 2,675.1 $ 2,824.3 $ 2,965.0 $ 3,101.9 $ 3,234.0 $ 3,365.3 $ 3,496.0 $ 3,569.7 $ 3,682.6 $ 45,527.7 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 168.6 $ 415.1 $ 719.1 $ 1,069.1 $ 1,312.8 $ 1,504.4 $ 1,653.1 $ 1,775.0 $ 1,877.3 $ 1,964.7 $ 2,040.7 $ 2,107.7 $ 2,167.7 $ 2,222.1 $ 2,271.9 $ 2,318.1 $ 2,361.5 $ 2,402.4 $ 2,409.8 $ 2,441.0 $ 35,202.1 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 25.8 $ 63.6 $ 110.1 $ 163.6 $ 200.7 $ 230.0 $ 252.5 $ 271.0 $ 286.2 $ 299.3 $ 310.7 $ 320.6 $ 329.6 $ 338.0 $ 345.4 $ 351.9 $ 358.0 $ 363.7 $ 365.2 $ 369.4 $ 5,355.3 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 387.7 $ 954.7 $ 1,652.0 $ 2,455.6 $ 3,017.8 $ 3,459.9 $ 3,801.7 $ 4,085.8 $ 4,324.9 $ 4,533.9 $ 4,711.4 $ 4,866.5 $ 5,013.5 $ 5,140.4 $ 5,257.8 $ 5,365.1 $ 5,470.0 $ 5,573.5 $ 5,587.6 $ 5,665.1 $ 81,325.0 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.21 k Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Ground Water Systems Serving <100 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative, SWAT Method Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 9.0 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 1.4 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.7 $ 0.8 $ 0.9 $ 1.0 $ 1.1 $ 1.2 $ 1.3 $ 1.4 $ 1.4 $ 1.5 $ 1.5 $ 1.6 $ 1.6 $ 1.6 $ 1.7 $ 20.7 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 5.8 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.9 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.8 $ 0.9 $ 0.9 $ 0.9 $ 1.0 $ 1.0 $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 1.2 $ 13.3 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 10.9 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 1.7 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.8 $ 1.0 $ 1.1 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.4 $ 1.5 $ 1.6 $ 1.6 $ 1.7 $ 1.7 $ 1.7 $ 1.8 $ 1.8 $ 1.8 $ 1.8 $ 25.1 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.211 Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Ground Water Systems Serving 100-499 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative, SWAT Method Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.4 $ 0.7 $ 1.1 $ 1.6 $ 2.2 $ 2.6 $ 3.0 $ 3.3 $ 3.7 $ 3.9 $ 4.2 $ 4.4 $ 4.6 $ 4.7 $ 4.9 $ 5.0 $ 5.2 $ 5.2 $ 5.3 $ 66.3 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 10.1 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.4 $ 0.9 $ 1.7 $ 2.6 $ 3.7 $ 5.0 $ 6.0 $ 6.9 $ 7.7 $ 8.4 $ 9.1 $ 9.6 $ 10.1 $ 10.5 $ 11.0 $ 11.3 $ 11.7 $ 12.0 $ 12.1 $ 12.4 $ 153.2 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.3 $ 0.5 $ 0.8 $ 1.1 $ 1.4 $ 1.6 $ 1.8 $ 2.0 $ 2.2 $ 2.4 $ 2.6 $ 2.7 $ 2.9 $ 3.0 $ 3.2 $ 3.3 $ 3.5 $ 3.6 $ 3.7 $ 42.6 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 6.5 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.3 $ 0.7 $ 1.2 $ 1.7 $ 2.4 $ 3.2 $ 3.7 $ 4.2 $ 4.7 $ 5.1 $ 5.5 $ 5.9 $ 6.3 $ 6.7 $ 7.0 $ 7.4 $ 7.7 $ 8.0 $ 8.3 $ 8.6 $ 98.4 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.3 $ 0.7 $ 1.2 $ 1.8 $ 2.4 $ 3.1 $ 3.6 $ 4.0 $ 4.3 $ 4.6 $ 4.8 $ 5.0 $ 5.2 $ 5.3 $ 5.4 $ 5.6 $ 5.7 $ 5.8 $ 5.8 $ 5.9 $ 80.3 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.9 $ 0.9 $ 0.9 $ 0.9 $ 12.2 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.6 $ 1.5 $ 2.7 $ 4.1 $ 5.6 $ 7.2 $ 8.3 $ 9.2 $ 10.0 $ 10.6 $ 11.1 $ 11.5 $ 11.9 $ 12.3 $ 12.6 $ 12.8 $ 13.1 $ 13.4 $ 13.4 $ 13.6 $ 185.6 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.21m Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Ground Water Systems Serving 500-999 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative, SWAT Method Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.4 $ 0.8 $ 1.2 $ 1.7 $ 2.3 $ 2.8 $ 3.2 $ 3.6 $ 3.9 $ 4.2 $ 4.4 $ 4.7 $ 4.9 $ 5.0 $ 5.2 $ 5.4 $ 5.5 $ 5.6 $ 5.7 $ 70.5 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.9 $ 10.7 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.4 $ 1.0 $ 1.8 $ 2.8 $ 4.0 $ 5.3 $ 6.4 $ 7.3 $ 8.2 $ 9.0 $ 9.6 $ 10.2 $ 10.8 $ 11.2 $ 11.7 $ 12.0 $ 12.4 $ 12.8 $ 12.9 $ 13.2 $ 163.0 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.3 $ 0.5 $ 0.8 $ 1.1 $ 1.5 $ 1.7 $ 1.9 $ 2.1 $ 2.3 $ 2.5 $ 2.7 $ 2.9 $ 3.1 $ 3.2 $ 3.4 $ 3.5 $ 3.7 $ 3.8 $ 3.9 $ 45.3 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 6.9 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.3 $ 0.7 $ 1.2 $ 1.9 $ 2.6 $ 3.4 $ 3.9 $ 4.5 $ 4.9 $ 5.4 $ 5.9 $ 6.3 $ 6.7 $ 7.1 $ 7.5 $ 7.8 $ 8.2 $ 8.6 $ 8.8 $ 9.1 $ 104.7 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.3 $ 0.7 $ 1.3 $ 1.9 $ 2.6 $ 3.3 $ 3.9 $ 4.3 $ 4.6 $ 4.9 $ 5.1 $ 5.3 $ 5.5 $ 5.6 $ 5.8 $ 5.9 $ 6.0 $ 6.1 $ 6.2 $ 6.2 $ 85.4 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.9 $ 0.9 $ 0.9 $ 0.9 $ 0.9 $ 0.9 $ 0.9 $ 13.0 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.7 $ 1.6 $ 2.9 $ 4.3 $ 5.9 $ 7.7 $ 8.9 $ 9.8 $ 10.6 $ 11.3 $ 11.8 $ 12.3 $ 12.7 $ 13.1 $ 13.4 $ 13.7 $ 14.0 $ 14.2 $ 14.3 $ 14.5 $ 197.4 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.21n Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Ground Water Systems Serving 1,000-3,299 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative, SWAT Method Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.4 $ 1.1 $ 2.0 $ 3.1 $ 4.4 $ 5.8 $ 7.0 $ 8.1 $ 9.0 $ 9.8 $ 10.5 $ 11.2 $ 11.7 $ 12.3 $ 12.7 $ 13.1 $ 13.5 $ 13.9 $ 14.1 $ 14.4 $ 178.1 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.5 $ 0.7 $ 0.9 $ 1.1 $ 1.2 $ 1.4 $ 1.5 $ 1.6 $ 1.7 $ 1.8 $ 1.9 $ 1.9 $ 2.0 $ 2.1 $ 2.1 $ 2.1 $ 2.2 $ 27.1 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.0 $ 2.5 $ 4.6 $ 7.1 $ 10.1 $ 13.4 $ 16.1 $ 18.5 $ 20.7 $ 22.6 $ 24.4 $ 25.8 $ 27.2 $ 28.4 $ 29.4 $ 30.4 $ 31.4 $ 32.3 $ 32.6 $ 33.3 $ 411.7 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.3 $ 0.8 $ 1.4 $ 2.0 $ 2.8 $ 3.7 $ 4.3 $ 4.9 $ 5.4 $ 5.9 $ 6.4 $ 6.9 $ 7.3 $ 7.7 $ 8.1 $ 8.5 $ 8.9 $ 9.3 $ 9.6 $ 9.9 $ 114.3 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.6 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.8 $ 0.9 $ 1.0 $ 1.0 $ 1.1 $ 1.2 $ 1.2 $ 1.3 $ 1.4 $ 1.4 $ 1.4 $ 1.5 $ 17.4 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.7 $ 1.8 $ 3.1 $ 4.7 $ 6.5 $ 8.5 $ 10.0 $ 11.3 $ 12.5 $ 13.7 $ 14.8 $ 15.8 $ 16.9 $ 17.9 $ 18.9 $ 19.8 $ 20.7 $ 21.6 $ 22.2 $ 23.0 $ 264.3 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.7 $ 1.8 $ 3.2 $ 4.8 $ 6.5 $ 8.5 $ 9.8 $ 10.8 $ 11.6 $ 12.3 $ 12.9 $ 13.4 $ 13.9 $ 14.2 $ 14.6 $ 14.9 $ 15.2 $ 15.5 $ 15.5 $ 15.7 $ 215.8 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.3 $ 0.5 $ 0.7 $ 1.0 $ 1.3 $ 1.5 $ 1.6 $ 1.8 $ 1.9 $ 2.0 $ 2.0 $ 2.1 $ 2.2 $ 2.2 $ 2.3 $ 2.3 $ 2.3 $ 2.4 $ 2.4 $ 32.8 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.6 $ 4.1 $ 7.3 $ 10.9 $ 15.0 $ 19.4 $ 22.4 $ 24.8 $ 26.8 $ 28.4 $ 29.8 $ 31.0 $ 32.0 $ 33.0 $ 33.8 $ 34.5 $ 35.2 $ 35.9 $ 36.0 $ 36.5 $ 498.7 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.21o Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Ground Water Systems Serving 3,300-9,999 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative, SWAT Method Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.8 $ 2.1 $ 3.8 $ 5.8 $ 8.3 $ 11.0 $ 13.3 $ 15.2 $ 17.0 $ 18.6 $ 19.9 $ 21.1 $ 22.2 $ 23.2 $ 24.0 $ 24.8 $ 25.6 $ 26.3 $ 26.6 $ 27.1 $ 336.8 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.3 $ 0.6 $ 0.9 $ 1.3 $ 1.7 $ 2.0 $ 2.3 $ 2.6 $ 2.8 $ 3.0 $ 3.2 $ 3.4 $ 3.5 $ 3.7 $ 3.8 $ 3.9 $ 4.0 $ 4.0 $ 4.1 $ 51.2 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.8 $ 4.8 $ 8.7 $ 13.4 $ 19.0 $ 25.4 $ 30.5 $ 35.0 $ 39.1 $ 42.8 $ 46.0 $ 48.8 $ 51.4 $ 53.6 $ 55.6 $ 57.5 $ 59.3 $ 61.0 $ 61.6 $ 63.0 $ 778.4 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.6 $ 1.5 $ 2.6 $ 3.9 $ 5.3 $ 7.0 $ 8.2 $ 9.3 $ 10.3 $ 11.2 $ 12.1 $ 13.0 $ 13.8 $ 14.6 $ 15.4 $ 16.2 $ 16.9 $ 17.6 $ 18.1 $ 18.7 $ 216.2 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.4 $ 0.6 $ 0.8 $ 1.1 $ 1.2 $ 1.4 $ 1.6 $ 1.7 $ 1.8 $ 2.0 $ 2.1 $ 2.2 $ 2.3 $ 2.5 $ 2.6 $ 2.7 $ 2.7 $ 2.8 $ 32.9 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.4 $ 3.4 $ 5.9 $ 8.9 $ 12.3 $ 16.1 $ 18.8 $ 21.3 $ 23.6 $ 25.9 $ 28.0 $ 30.0 $ 32.0 $ 33.8 $ 35.7 $ 37.4 $ 39.2 $ 40.9 $ 41.9 $ 43.4 $ 499.7 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.4 $ 3.4 $ 6.0 $ 9.0 $ 12.3 $ 16.0 $ 18.4 $ 20.4 $ 22.0 $ 23.3 $ 24.4 $ 25.4 $ 26.2 $ 26.9 $ 27.6 $ 28.2 $ 28.8 $ 29.3 $ 29.4 $ 29.8 $ 408.0 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.5 $ 0.9 $ 1.4 $ 1.9 $ 2.4 $ 2.8 $ 3.1 $ 3.3 $ 3.5 $ 3.7 $ 3.9 $ 4.0 $ 4.1 $ 4.2 $ 4.3 $ 4.4 $ 4.4 $ 4.5 $ 4.5 $ 62.1 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 3.1 $ 7.8 $ 13.7 $ 20.6 $ 28.3 $ 36.7 $ 42.4 $ 46.9 $ 50.6 $ 53.7 $ 56.3 $ 58.6 $ 60.6 $ 62.3 $ 63.9 $ 65.3 $ 66.6 $ 67.9 $ 68.1 $ 69.1 $ 942.8 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.21p Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Ground Water Systems Serving 10,000-49,999 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative, SWAT Method Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.0 $ 2.6 $ 4.7 $ 7.2 $ 10.2 $ 13.1 $ 15.6 $ 17.7 $ 19.7 $ 21.4 $ 22.9 $ 24.2 $ 25.4 $ 26.5 $ 27.4 $ 28.3 $ 29.1 $ 29.9 $ 30.2 $ 30.8 $ 388.1 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.4 $ 0.7 $ 1.1 $ 1.6 $ 2.0 $ 2.4 $ 2.7 $ 3.0 $ 3.3 $ 3.5 $ 3.7 $ 3.9 $ 4.0 $ 4.2 $ 4.3 $ 4.4 $ 4.5 $ 4.6 $ 4.7 $ 59.0 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.3 $ 5.9 $ 10.7 $ 16.6 $ 23.5 $ 30.2 $ 35.8 $ 40.8 $ 45.3 $ 49.4 $ 52.9 $ 55.9 $ 58.7 $ 61.2 $ 63.5 $ 65.5 $ 67.5 $ 69.4 $ 70.1 $ 71.6 $ 896.9 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.8 $ 1.8 $ 3.2 $ 4.8 $ 6.6 $ 8.3 $ 9.5 $ 10.7 $ 11.9 $ 12.9 $ 13.9 $ 14.9 $ 15.8 $ 16.7 $ 17.6 $ 18.5 $ 19.3 $ 20.1 $ 20.6 $ 21.3 $ 249.4 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.3 $ 0.5 $ 0.7 $ 1.0 $ 1.3 $ 1.5 $ 1.6 $ 1.8 $ 2.0 $ 2.1 $ 2.3 $ 2.4 $ 2.5 $ 2.7 $ 2.8 $ 2.9 $ 3.0 $ 3.1 $ 3.2 $ 37.9 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.7 $ 4.2 $ 7.3 $ 11.0 $ 15.2 $ 19.0 $ 22.0 $ 24.7 $ 27.3 $ 29.8 $ 32.2 $ 34.4 $ 36.6 $ 38.7 $ 40.8 $ 42.8 $ 44.7 $ 46.7 $ 47.9 $ 49.5 $ 576.5 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.7 $ 4.2 $ 7.4 $ 11.1 $ 15.2 $ 18.9 $ 21.5 $ 23.6 $ 25.3 $ 26.7 $ 27.9 $ 28.9 $ 29.9 $ 30.7 $ 31.4 $ 32.1 $ 32.7 $ 33.3 $ 33.4 $ 33.8 $ 469.4 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.3 $ 0.6 $ 1.1 $ 1.7 $ 2.3 $ 2.9 $ 3.3 $ 3.6 $ 3.9 $ 4.1 $ 4.2 $ 4.4 $ 4.5 $ 4.7 $ 4.8 $ 4.9 $ 5.0 $ 5.0 $ 5.1 $ 5.1 $ 71.4 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 3.8 $ 9.7 $ 17.0 $ 25.5 $ 35.1 $ 43.4 $ 49.4 $ 54.2 $ 58.2 $ 61.6 $ 64.4 $ 66.8 $ 69.0 $ 70.9 $ 72.7 $ 74.2 $ 75.7 $ 77.2 $ 77.4 $ 78.4 $ 1,084.6 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.21q Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Ground Water Systems Serving 50,000-99,999 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative, SWAT Method Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.4 $ 1.1 $ 2.0 $ 3.0 $ 4.1 $ 4.9 $ 5.7 $ 6.4 $ 7.1 $ 7.6 $ 8.1 $ 8.5 $ 8.9 $ 9.2 $ 9.5 $ 9.8 $ 10.1 $ 10.3 $ 10.4 $ 10.6 $ 137.7 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 0.8 $ 0.9 $ 1.0 $ 1.1 $ 1.2 $ 1.2 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.4 $ 1.4 $ 1.5 $ 1.5 $ 1.6 $ 1.6 $ 1.6 $ 20.9 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.0 $ 2.5 $ 4.5 $ 6.9 $ 9.3 $ 11.4 $ 13.2 $ 14.8 $ 16.2 $ 17.5 $ 18.6 $ 19.6 $ 20.5 $ 21.3 $ 22.0 $ 22.7 $ 23.3 $ 24.0 $ 24.2 $ 24.7 $ 318.1 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.3 $ 0.8 $ 1.3 $ 2.0 $ 2.6 $ 3.1 $ 3.5 $ 3.9 $ 4.2 $ 4.6 $ 4.9 $ 5.2 $ 5.6 $ 5.9 $ 6.2 $ 6.4 $ 6.7 $ 7.0 $ 7.2 $ 7.4 $ 88.7 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.9 $ 0.9 $ 1.0 $ 1.0 $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 13.5 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.7 $ 1.8 $ 3.1 $ 4.6 $ 6.0 $ 7.0 $ 8.0 $ 8.9 $ 9.8 $ 10.6 $ 11.4 $ 12.1 $ 12.9 $ 13.6 $ 14.3 $ 14.9 $ 15.6 $ 16.2 $ 16.6 $ 17.2 $ 205.1 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.7 $ 1.8 $ 3.1 $ 4.7 $ 6.0 $ 7.0 $ 7.8 $ 8.4 $ 8.9 $ 9.3 $ 9.7 $ 10.0 $ 10.3 $ 10.6 $ 10.8 $ 11.0 $ 11.2 $ 11.4 $ 11.5 $ 11.6 $ 165.9 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.3 $ 0.5 $ 0.7 $ 0.9 $ 1.1 $ 1.2 $ 1.3 $ 1.4 $ 1.4 $ 1.5 $ 1.5 $ 1.6 $ 1.6 $ 1.6 $ 1.7 $ 1.7 $ 1.7 $ 1.7 $ 1.8 $ 25.2 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.6 $ 4.1 $ 7.1 $ 10.7 $ 13.8 $ 16.1 $ 17.8 $ 19.3 $ 20.5 $ 21.5 $ 22.4 $ 23.2 $ 23.9 $ 24.5 $ 25.1 $ 25.6 $ 26.1 $ 26.5 $ 26.6 $ 26.9 $ 383.3 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.21r Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Ground Water Systems Serving 100,000-999,999 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative, SWAT Method Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.1 $ 3.0 $ 5.4 $ 8.4 $ 10.7 $ 12.7 $ 14.6 $ 16.3 $ 17.8 $ 19.0 $ 20.1 $ 21.1 $ 22.0 $ 22.8 $ 23.6 $ 24.3 $ 24.9 $ 25.6 $ 25.8 $ 26.3 $ 345.7 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.5 $ 0.8 $ 1.3 $ 1.6 $ 1.9 $ 2.2 $ 2.5 $ 2.7 $ 2.9 $ 3.1 $ 3.2 $ 3.4 $ 3.5 $ 3.6 $ 3.7 $ 3.8 $ 3.9 $ 3.9 $ 4.0 $ 52.6 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.6 $ 6.9 $ 12.4 $ 19.2 $ 24.5 $ 29.3 $ 33.6 $ 37.5 $ 40.9 $ 43.9 $ 46.5 $ 48.8 $ 51.0 $ 52.9 $ 54.6 $ 56.2 $ 57.8 $ 59.3 $ 59.8 $ 61.0 $ 799.0 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.9 $ 2.1 $ 3.7 $ 5.5 $ 6.7 $ 7.8 $ 8.8 $ 9.8 $ 10.7 $ 11.5 $ 12.3 $ 13.1 $ 13.9 $ 14.6 $ 15.3 $ 16.0 $ 16.7 $ 17.4 $ 17.8 $ 18.4 $ 223.2 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.3 $ 0.6 $ 0.8 $ 1.0 $ 1.2 $ 1.3 $ 1.5 $ 1.6 $ 1.8 $ 1.9 $ 2.0 $ 2.1 $ 2.2 $ 2.3 $ 2.4 $ 2.5 $ 2.6 $ 2.7 $ 2.8 $ 33.9 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.0 $ 4.9 $ 8.5 $ 12.7 $ 15.5 $ 18.0 $ 20.3 $ 22.5 $ 24.6 $ 26.6 $ 28.5 $ 30.3 $ 32.1 $ 33.8 $ 35.5 $ 37.1 $ 38.7 $ 40.3 $ 41.3 $ 42.7 $ 515.9 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.9 $ 4.9 $ 8.6 $ 12.9 $ 15.7 $ 17.8 $ 19.6 $ 21.0 $ 22.2 $ 23.3 $ 24.1 $ 24.9 $ 25.6 $ 26.2 $ 26.8 $ 27.3 $ 27.8 $ 28.2 $ 28.3 $ 28.6 $ 415.8 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.3 $ 0.7 $ 1.3 $ 2.0 $ 2.4 $ 2.7 $ 3.0 $ 3.2 $ 3.4 $ 3.5 $ 3.7 $ 3.8 $ 3.9 $ 4.0 $ 4.1 $ 4.1 $ 4.2 $ 4.3 $ 4.3 $ 4.3 $ 63.3 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 4.5 $ 11.2 $ 19.7 $ 29.6 $ 36.0 $ 41.0 $ 45.1 $ 48.4 $ 51.2 $ 53.7 $ 55.7 $ 57.5 $ 59.2 $ 60.6 $ 62.0 $ 63.2 $ 64.3 $ 65.5 $ 65.6 $ 66.5 $ 960.6 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.21s Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (Ground Water Systems Serving >1,000,000 People) TTHM - Preferred Alternative, SWAT Method Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.5 $ 0.9 $ 1.4 $ 1.8 $ 2.1 $ 2.4 $ 2.7 $ 3.0 $ 3.2 $ 3.4 $ 3.5 $ 3.7 $ 3.8 $ 3.9 $ 4.0 $ 4.2 $ 4.3 $ 4.3 $ 4.4 $ 57.6 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 8.8 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.4 $ 1.1 $ 2.1 $ 3.2 $ 4.1 $ 4.9 $ 5.6 $ 6.2 $ 6.8 $ 7.3 $ 7.7 $ 8.1 $ 8.5 $ 8.8 $ 9.1 $ 9.4 $ 9.6 $ 9.9 $ 10.0 $ 10.2 $ 133.1 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.4 $ 0.6 $ 0.9 $ 1.1 $ 1.3 $ 1.5 $ 1.6 $ 1.8 $ 1.9 $ 2.1 $ 2.2 $ 2.3 $ 2.4 $ 2.6 $ 2.7 $ 2.8 $ 2.9 $ 3.0 $ 3.1 $ 37.2 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 5.7 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.3 $ 0.8 $ 1.4 $ 2.1 $ 2.6 $ 3.0 $ 3.4 $ 3.7 $ 4.1 $ 4.4 $ 4.7 $ 5.0 $ 5.3 $ 5.6 $ 5.9 $ 6.2 $ 6.5 $ 6.7 $ 6.9 $ 7.1 $ 85.9 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.3 $ 0.8 $ 1.4 $ 2.1 $ 2.6 $ 3.0 $ 3.3 $ 3.5 $ 3.7 $ 3.9 $ 4.0 $ 4.1 $ 4.3 $ 4.4 $ 4.5 $ 4.5 $ 4.6 $ 4.7 $ 4.7 $ 4.8 $ 69.2 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.0 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 0.7 $ 10.5 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.7 $ 1.9 $ 3.3 $ 4.9 $ 6.0 $ 6.8 $ 7.5 $ 8.1 $ 8.5 $ 8.9 $ 9.3 $ 9.6 $ 9.9 $ 10.1 $ 10.3 $ 10.5 $ 10.7 $ 10.9 $ 10.9 $ 11.1 $ 160.0 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.21t Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (All Ground Water Systems) TTHM - Preferred Alternative, SWAT Method Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 4.3 $ 11.2 $ 20.3 $ 31.5 $ 43.0 $ 54.6 $ 64.3 $ 73.0 $ 80.8 $ 87.6 $ 93.6 $ 98.8 $ 103.5 $ 107.8 $ 111.6 $ 115.2 $ 118.5 $ 121.6 $ 122.9 $ 125.4 $ 1,589.7 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.7 $ 1.7 $ 3.1 $ 4.8 $ 6.6 $ 8.3 $ 9.8 $ 11.2 $ 12.3 $ 13.3 $ 14.3 $ 15.0 $ 15.7 $ 16.4 $ 17.0 $ 17.5 $ 18.0 $ 18.4 $ 18.6 $ 19.0 $ 241.7 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 9.9 $ 25.8 $ 46.7 $ 72.3 $ 98.7 $ 125.6 $ 148.0 $ 168.1 $ 186.1 $ 202.2 $ 216.1 $ 228.2 $ 239.4 $ 249.3 $ 258.3 $ 266.6 $ 274.5 $ 282.2 $ 285.1 $ 291 .0 $ 3,674.2 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 3.3 $ 8.0 $ 13.9 $ 20.8 $ 27.5 $ 34.2 $ 39.4 $ 44.1 $ 48.6 $ 52.9 $ 57.0 $ 60.9 $ 64.7 $ 68.4 $ 71.9 $ 75.4 $ 78.7 $ 82.0 $ 84.1 $ 86.9 $ 1,022.6 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.5 $ 1.2 $ 2.1 $ 3.2 $ 4.2 $ 5.2 $ 6.0 $ 6.7 $ 7.4 $ 8.1 $ 8.7 $ 9.3 $ 9.8 $ 10.4 $ 10.9 $ 11.4 $ 11.9 $ 12.4 $ 12.7 $ 13.2 $ 155.5 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 7.6 $ 18.3 $ 31.8 $ 47.8 $ 63.3 $ 78.6 $ 90.5 $ 101.6 $ 112.1 $ 122.1 $ 131.6 $ 140.6 $ 149.6 $ 158.1 $ 166.4 $ 174.4 $ 182.3 $ 190.2 $ 194.9 $ 201 .7 $ 2,363.7 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 7.3 $ 18.3 $ 32.2 $ 48.4 $ 63.8 $ 78.0 $ 88.3 $ 96.5 $ 103.2 $ 108.8 $ 113.6 $ 117.8 $ 121.4 $ 124.7 $ 127.6 $ 130.3 $ 132.8 $ 135.1 $ 135.5 $ 137.2 $ 1,920.8 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.1 $ 2.8 $ 4.9 $ 7.4 $ 9.7 $ 11.9 $ 13.5 $ 14.7 $ 15.7 $ 16.6 $ 17.3 $ 17.9 $ 18.5 $ 19.0 $ 19.4 $ 19.8 $ 20.1 $ 20.5 $ 20.5 $ 20.8 $ 292.2 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 16.8 $ 42.2 $ 74.1 $ 111.2 $ 146.5 $ 179.4 $ 203.0 $ 222.0 $ 237.7 $ 251 .2 $ 262.4 $ 272.0 $ 280.9 $ 288.4 $ 295.3 $ 301 .5 $ 307.5 $ 313.4 $ 314.1 $ 318.4 $ 4,438.1 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.21 u Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases (All Water Systems) TTHM - Preferred Alternative, SWAT Method Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ - - - $ $ 96.4 $ 249.8 $ 452.0 $ 699.8 $ 913.1 $ 1,112.5 $ 1,291.8 $ 1 ,453.9 $ 1 ,596.4 $ 1,718.8 $ 1 ,825.3 $ 1,919.3 $ 2,003.6 $ 2,079.9 $ 2,149.8 $ 2,214.5 $ 2,274.7 $ 2,331.3 $ 2,353.9 $ 2,398.3 $ 31,135.0 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ - - - - $ 14.8 $ 38.3 $ 69.2 $ 107.1 $ 139.6 $ 170.1 $ 197.3 $ 222.0 $ 243.4 $ 261 .8 $ 277.9 $ 291 .9 $ 304.7 $ 316.3 $ 326.8 $ 336.1 $ 344.8 $ 353.0 $ 356.7 $ 362.9 $ 4,734.8 Upper (95th %tile) $ - - - $ $ 221 .7 $ 574.6 $ 1 ,038.4 $ 1 ,607.4 $ 2,099.1 $ 2,558.5 $ 2,970.7 $ 3,346.7 $ 3,677.8 $ 3,966.4 $ 4,214.1 $ 4,431 .5 $ 4,633.8 $ 4,811.6 $ 4,975.2 $ 5,125.1 $ 5,269.1 $ 5,408.4 $ 5,457.8 $ 5,566.1 $ 71,954.0 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ - - - $ $ 86.7 $ 206.3 $ 353.1 $ 524.1 $ 645.0 $ 750.0 $ 840.9 $ 925.0 $ 1 ,004.0 $ 1 ,079.0 $ 1,150.7 $ 1,219.5 $ 1 ,285.9 $ 1 ,350.0 $ 1,412.2 $ 1 ,472.7 $ 1,531.5 $ 1 ,588.9 $ 1 ,623.6 $ 1 ,673.7 $ 20,722.9 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ - - - $ $ 13.3 $ 31.6 $ 54.0 $ 80.2 $ 98.6 $ 114.7 $ 128.5 $ 141.2 $ 153.1 $ 164.4 $ 175.2 $ 185.5 $ 195.5 $ 205.3 $ 214.7 $ 223.5 $ 232.2 $ 240.6 $ 246.0 $ 253.3 $ 3,151.4 Upper (95th %tile) $ - - - $ $ 199.2 $ 474.5 $ 811.1 $ 1 ,203.9 $ 1 ,482.6 $ 1 ,725.0 $ 1 ,933.9 $ 2,129.2 $ 2,313.0 $ 2,490.0 $ 2,656.6 $ 2,815.7 $ 2,974.0 $ 3,123.2 $ 3,268.3 $ 3,408.3 $ 3,547.6 $ 3,686.1 $ 3,764.6 $ 3,884.4 $ 47,891.4 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ - - - $ $ 175.9 $ 433.4 $ 751 .4 $ 1,117.5 $ 1 ,376.5 $ 1 ,582.5 $ 1 ,741 .4 $ 1 ,871 .4 $ 1 ,980.4 $ 2,073.5 $ 2,154.3 $ 2,225.5 $ 2,289.2 $ 2,346.7 $ 2,399.5 $ 2,448.4 $ 2,494.2 $ 2,537.5 $ 2,545.3 $ 2,578.2 $ 37,122.9 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ - - - $ $ 26.9 $ 66.4 $ 115.0 $ 171.1 $ 210.4 $ 242.0 $ 266.0 $ 285.8 $ 302.0 $ 315.9 $ 328.0 $ 338.5 $ 348.1 $ 356.9 $ 364.8 $ 371 .6 $ 378.1 $ 384.2 $ 385.7 $ 390.2 $ 5,647.5 Upper (95th %tile) $ - - - $ $ 404.4 $ 996.9 $ 1,726.1 $ 2,566.9 $ 3,164.4 $ 3,639.4 $ 4,004.7 $ 4,307.9 $ 4,562.6 $ 4,785.1 $ 4,973.8 $ 5,138.5 $ 5,294.3 $ 5,428.9 $ 5,553.1 $ 5,666.6 $ 5,777.6 $ 5,886.8 $ 5,901.7 $ 5,983.6 $ 85,763.1 Notes: All values in millions of year 2003 dollars. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibits F.2J and F.2t. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.21v Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 3% Discount Rate (All Water Systems) TTHM - Preferred Alternative, SWAT Method Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Ann. Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 83.2 $ 209.2 $ 367.5 $ 552.4 $ 699.8 $ 827.8 $ 933.2 $ 1,019.7 $ 1,087.1 $ 1,136.3 $ 1,171.6 $ 1,196.1 $ 1,212.2 $ 1,221.7 $ 1,226.0 $ 1,226.1 $ 1,222.8 $ 1,216.7 $ 1,192.7 $ 1,179.8 $ 18,981.9 $ 1,090.1 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 12.7 $ 32.0 $ 56.2 $ 84.6 $ 107.0 $ 126.6 $ 142.6 $ 155.7 $ 165.8 $ 173.1 $ 178.4 $ 181.9 $ 184.3 $ 185.8 $ 186.4 $ 186.1 $ 185.4 $ 184.2 $ 180.7 $ 178.5 $ 2,888.0 $ 165.9 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 191.2 $ 481.2 $ 844.3 $ 1,268.9 $ 1,608.8 $ 1,903.7 $ 2,146.1 $ 2,347.3 $ 2,504.4 $ 2,622.3 $ 2,704.9 $ 2,761.6 $ 2,803.5 $ 2,826.3 $ 2,837.3 $ 2,837.6 $ 2,832.4 $ 2,822.6 $ 2,765.4 $ 2,738.2 $ 43,848.0 $ 2,518.1 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 74.8 $ 172.8 $ 287.1 $ 413.8 $ 494.3 $ 558.1 $ 607.5 $ 648.8 $ 683.7 $ 713.3 $ 738.6 $ 760.0 $ 778.0 $ 793.0 $ 805.4 $ 815.4 $ 823.3 $ 829.2 $ 822.7 $ 823.3 $ 12,642.9 $ 726.1 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 11.4 $ 26.5 $ 43.9 $ 63.3 $ 75.6 $ 85.3 $ 92.8 $ 99.1 $ 104.2 $ 108.7 $ 112.5 $ 115.6 $ 118.3 $ 120.6 $ 122.4 $ 123.8 $ 124.8 $ 125.6 $ 124.7 $ 124.6 $ 1,923.6 $ 110.5 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 171.9 $ 397.4 $ 659.5 $ 950.4 $ 1,136.3 $ 1,283.5 $ 1,397.1 $ 1,493.4 $ 1,575.1 $ 1,646.2 $ 1,705.2 $ 1,754.7 $ 1,799.3 $ 1,834.5 $ 1,863.9 $ 1,887.1 $ 1,907.0 $ 1,923.8 $ 1,907.5 $ 1,910.9 $ 29,204.5 $ 1,677.2 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 151.8 $ 363.0 $ 610.9 $ 882.2 $ 1,055.0 $ 1,177.5 $ 1,258.0 $ 1,312.6 $ 1,348.6 $ 1,370.8 $ 1,382.8 $ 1,386.9 $ 1,385.0 $ 1,378.5 $ 1,368.4 $ 1,355.6 $ 1,340.8 $ 1,324.3 $ 1,289.7 $ 1,268.3 $ 23,010.6 $ 1,321.4 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 23.2 $ 55.6 $ 93.5 $ 135.0 $ 161.3 $ 180.1 $ 192.2 $ 200.4 $ 205.6 $ 208.8 $ 210.6 $ 210.9 $ 210.6 $ 209.7 $ 208.0 $ 205.8 $ 203.2 $ 200.5 $ 195.4 $ 191.9 $ 3,502.4 $ 201.1 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 348.9 $ 834.9 $ 1,403.5 $ 2,026.3 $ 2,425.2 $ 2,708.0 $ 2,893.1 $ 3,021.5 $ 3,106.9 $ 3,163.5 $ 3,192.5 $ 3,202.2 $ 3,203.2 $ 3,188.9 $ 3,166.9 $ 3,137.5 $ 3,105.7 $ 3,072.3 $ 2,990.3 $ 2,943.5 $ 53,134.6 $ 3,051.4 Notes: Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005. Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibit F.21u. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.21w Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 7% Discount Rate (All Water Systems) TTHM - Preferred Alternative, SWAT Method Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Ann. Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 68.8 $ 166.5 $ 281 .5 $ 407.3 $ 496.7 $ 565.5 $ 613.7 $ 645.5 $ 662.5 $ 666.6 $ 661 .6 $ 650.1 $ 634.3 $ 615.4 $ 594.4 $ 572.3 $ 549.4 $ 526.2 $ 496.5 $ 472.8 $ 10,347.4 $ 887.9 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 10.5 $ 25.5 $ 43.1 $ 62.3 $ 75.9 $ 86.5 $ 93.8 $ 98.6 $ 101.0 $ 101.5 $ 1 00.7 $ 98.9 $ 96.4 $ 93.6 $ 90.4 $ 86.9 $ 83.3 $ 79.7 $ 75.2 $ 71.6 $ 1,575.3 $ 135.2 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 158.0 $ 382.9 $ 646.7 $ 935.5 $ 1,141.8 $ 1 ,300.6 $ 1,411.4 $ 1 ,486.0 $ 1 ,526.2 $ 1 ,538.2 $ 1 ,527.4 $ 1,501.1 $ 1 ,466.9 $ 1 ,423.6 $ 1 ,375.7 $ 1 ,324.4 $ 1 ,272.5 $ 1 ,220.8 $ 1,151.3 $ 1 ,097.3 $ 23,888.3 $ 2,049.9 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 61.8 $ 137.5 $ 219.9 $ 305.1 $ 350.8 $ 381 .3 $ 399.5 $ 410.7 $ 416.6 $ 418.5 $ 417.1 $ 413.1 $ 407.1 $ 399.4 $ 390.5 $ 380.6 $ 369.9 $ 358.6 $ 342.5 $ 330.0 $ 6,910.3 $ 593.0 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 9.5 $ 21.0 $ 33.6 $ 46.7 $ 53.6 $ 58.3 $ 61.0 $ 62.7 $ 63.5 $ 63.7 $ 63.5 $ 62.8 $ 61.9 $ 60.8 $ 59.4 $ 57.8 $ 56.1 $ 54.3 $ 51.9 $ 49.9 $ 1,052.1 $ 90.3 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 142.0 $ 316.2 $ 505.1 $ 700.7 $ 806.5 $ 876.9 $ 918.8 $ 945.4 $ 959.8 $ 965.7 $ 962.9 $ 953.8 $ 941 .5 $ 924.0 $ 903.7 $ 880.8 $ 856.8 $ 832.0 $ 794.1 $ 765.8 $ 15,952.5 $ 1,368.9 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 125.4 $ 288.8 $ 467.9 $ 650.4 $ 748.7 $ 804.4 $ 827.3 $ 830.9 $ 821 .8 $ 804.1 $ 780.8 $ 753.9 $ 724.7 $ 694.3 $ 663.5 $ 632.7 $ 602.4 $ 572.7 $ 536.9 $ 508.3 $ 12,840.2 $ 1,101.8 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 19.2 $ 44.2 $ 71.6 $ 99.6 $ 114.5 $ 123.0 $ 126.4 $ 126.9 $ 125.3 $ 122.5 $ 118.9 $ 114.7 $ 110.2 $ 105.6 $ 1 00.9 $ 96.0 $ 91.3 $ 86.7 $ 81.4 $ 76.9 $ 1,955.7 $ 167.8 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 288.4 $ 664.3 $ 1 ,074.9 $ 1 ,493.9 $ 1 ,721 .2 $ 1,850.1 $ 1 ,902.6 $ 1,912.7 $ 1 ,893.3 $ 1 ,855.7 $ 1 ,802.7 $ 1 ,740.6 $ 1,676.1 $ 1 ,606.2 $ 1 ,535.5 $ 1 ,464.4 $ 1 ,395.4 $ 1 ,328.7 $ 1 ,244.9 $ 1,179.6 $ 29,631.3 $ 2,542.7 Notes: Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Source: Derived from Exhibit F.21 u. 2005. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.21x Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 3% Discount Rate, by Small & Large Size Categories (Surface Water Systems) TTHM - Preferred Alternative, SWAT Method Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Ann. Small Systems Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.9 $ 4.8 $ 8.5 $ 12.8 $ 17.6 $ 22.8 $ 26.6 $ 29.6 $ 32.1 $ 34.0 $ 35.5 $ 36.6 $ 37.3 $ 37.8 $ 38.1 $ 38.2 $ 38.2 $ 38.1 $ 37.4 $ 37.0 $ 564.9 $ 32.4 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.3 $ 0.7 $ 1.3 $ 2.0 $ 2.7 $ 3.5 $ 4.1 $ 4.5 $ 4.9 $ 5.2 $ 5.4 $ 5.6 $ 5.7 $ 5.7 $ 5.8 $ 5.8 $ 5.8 $ 5.8 $ 5.7 $ 5.6 $ 85.9 $ 4.9 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 4.4 $ 11.1 $ 19.6 $ 29.4 $ 40.4 $ 52.4 $ 61.1 $ 68.2 $ 73.9 $ 78.6 $ 82.0 $ 84.4 $ 86.3 $ 87.4 $ 88.1 $ 88.4 $ 88.4 $ 88.3 $ 86.7 $ 86.0 $ 1,305.2 $ 75.0 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.5 $ 3.4 $ 5.8 $ 8.5 $ 11.4 $ 14.5 $ 16.4 $ 18.0 $ 19.4 $ 20.6 $ 21.6 $ 22.4 $ 23.2 $ 23.8 $ 24.4 $ 24.8 $ 25.2 $ 25.5 $ 25.4 $ 25.6 $ 361.3 $ 20.8 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.5 $ 0.9 $ 1.3 $ 1.7 $ 2.2 $ 2.5 $ 2.8 $ 3.0 $ 3.1 $ 3.3 $ 3.4 $ 3.5 $ 3.6 $ 3.7 $ 3.8 $ 3.8 $ 3.9 $ 3.9 $ 3.9 $ 55.0 $ 3.2 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 3.4 $ 7.9 $ 13.3 $ 19.4 $ 26.1 $ 33.2 $ 37.7 $ 41.5 $ 44.7 $ 47.4 $ 49.8 $ 51.8 $ 53.7 $ 55.1 $ 56.4 $ 57.5 $ 58.4 $ 59.2 $ 59.0 $ 59.3 $ 834.9 $ 47.9 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 3.2 $ 7.9 $ 13.5 $ 19.7 $ 26.2 $ 33.0 $ 37.0 $ 39.7 $ 41.5 $ 42.7 $ 43.5 $ 43.9 $ 44.0 $ 43.9 $ 43.7 $ 43.3 $ 42.9 $ 42.4 $ 41.3 $ 40.6 $ 694.1 $ 39.9 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.5 $ 1.2 $ 2.1 $ 3.0 $ 4.0 $ 5.0 $ 5.6 $ 6.1 $ 6.3 $ 6.5 $ 6.6 $ 6.7 $ 6.7 $ 6.7 $ 6.6 $ 6.6 $ 6.5 $ 6.4 $ 6.3 $ 6.2 $ 105.6 $ 6.1 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 7.4 $ 18.2 $ 31.0 $ 45.2 $ 60.3 $ 75.9 $ 85.0 $ 91.3 $ 95.7 $ 98.6 $ 100.4 $ 101.3 $ 101.8 $ 101.6 $ 101.1 $ 100.3 $ 99.4 $ 98.4 $ 95.8 $ 94.3 $ 1,603.1 $ 92.1 Large Systems Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 77.5 $ 195.0 $ 342.5 $ 514.8 $ 649.3 $ 764.3 $ 860.1 $ 938.9 $ 1,000.0 $ 1,044.3 $ 1,076.0 $ 1,097.9 $ 1,112.3 $ 1,120.7 $ 1,124.3 $ 1,124.1 $ 1,120.9 $ 1,115.1 $ 1,093.0 $ 1,081.1 $ 17,452.1 $ 1,002.2 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 11.9 $ 29.9 $ 52.4 $ 78.8 $ 99.3 $ 116.9 $ 131.4 $ 143.4 $ 152.5 $ 159.1 $ 163.8 $ 167.0 $ 169.1 $ 170.4 $ 170.9 $ 170.6 $ 169.9 $ 168.8 $ 165.6 $ 163.6 $ 2,655.3 $ 152.5 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 178.3 $ 448.5 $ 786.8 $ 1,182.5 $ 1,492.6 $ 1,757.9 $ 1,978.0 $ 2,161.2 $ 2,303.8 $ 2,410.0 $ 2,484.2 $ 2,534.9 $ 2,572.4 $ 2,592.5 $ 2,601.9 $ 2,601.7 $ 2,596.4 $ 2,587.0 $ 2,534.3 $ 2,509.0 $ 40,313.7 $ 2,315.1 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 70.5 $ 162.7 $ 270.0 $ 388.9 $ 461.8 $ 518.2 $ 562.7 $ 599.8 $ 631.2 $ 657.8 $ 680.4 $ 699.6 $ 715.6 $ 729.0 $ 740.0 $ 748.8 $ 755.7 $ 760.9 $ 754.6 $ 755.0 $ 11,663.3 $ 669.8 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 10.8 $ 24.9 $ 41.3 $ 59.5 $ 70.6 $ 79.2 $ 86.0 $ 91.6 $ 96.2 $ 100.2 $ 103.6 $ 106.4 $ 108.8 $ 110.9 $ 112.5 $ 113.7 $ 114.6 $ 115.2 $ 114.4 $ 114.3 $ 1,774.6 $ 101.9 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 162.0 $ 374.1 $ 620.3 $ 893.2 $ 1,061.7 $ 1,191.8 $ 1,294.0 $ 1,380.7 $ 1,454.1 $ 1,518.0 $ 1,570.9 $ 1,615.2 $ 1,655.1 $ 1,686.5 $ 1,712.5 $ 1,733.1 $ 1,750.6 $ 1,765.3 $ 1,749.8 $ 1,752.3 $ 26,941.2 $ 1,547.2 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 142.2 $ 339.7 $ 571.2 $ 824.3 $ 979.9 $ 1,086.4 $ 1,157.3 $ 1,205.3 $ 1,236.8 $ 1,256.2 $ 1,266.4 $ 1,269.6 $ 1,267.5 $ 1,261.3 $ 1,251.9 $ 1,240.2 $ 1,226.5 $ 1,211.4 $ 1,179.7 $ 1,160.2 $ 21,133.9 $ 1,213.7 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 21.8 $ 52.0 $ 87.4 $ 126.2 $ 149.8 $ 166.1 $ 176.8 $ 184.0 $ 188.6 $ 191.4 $ 192.8 $ 193.1 $ 192.7 $ 191.8 $ 190.3 $ 188.2 $ 185.9 $ 183.4 $ 178.8 $ 175.6 $ 3,216.8 $ 184.7 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 326.9 $ 781.4 $ 1,312.2 $ 1,893.3 $ 2,252.6 $ 2,498.6 $ 2,661.4 $ 2,774.4 $ 2,849.4 $ 2,898.8 $ 2,923.7 $ 2,931.4 $ 2,931.5 $ 2,917.9 $ 2,897.3 $ 2,870.2 $ 2,841.0 $ 2,810.4 $ 2,735.4 $ 2,692.5 $ 48,800.2 $ 2,802.5 Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005. Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Derived from Exhibits F.21a through F.21L Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.21y Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 7% Discount Rate, by Small & Large Size Categories (Surface Water Systems) TTHM - Preferred Alternative, SWAT Method Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Ann. Small Systems Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.6 $ 3.9 $ 6.5 $ 9.4 $ 12.5 $ 15.6 $ 17.5 $ 18.8 $ 19.6 $ 20.0 $ 20.1 $ 19.9 $ 19.5 $ 19.0 $ 18.5 $ 17.8 $ 17.2 $ 16.5 $ 15.6 $ 14.8 $ 304.0 $ 26.1 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.6 $ 1.0 $ 1.4 $ 1.9 $ 2.4 $ 2.7 $ 2.9 $ 3.0 $ 3.0 $ 3.1 $ 3.0 $ 3.0 $ 2.9 $ 2.8 $ 2.7 $ 2.6 $ 2.5 $ 2.4 $ 2.2 $ 46.3 $ 4.0 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 3.6 $ 8.9 $ 15.0 $ 21.7 $ 28.7 $ 35.8 $ 40.2 $ 43.2 $ 45.1 $ 46.1 $ 46.3 $ 45.9 $ 45.1 $ 44.0 $ 42.7 $ 41.2 $ 39.7 $ 38.2 $ 36.1 $ 34.5 $ 702.0 $ 60.2 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.2 $ 2.7 $ 4.4 $ 6.2 $ 8.1 $ 9.9 $ 10.8 $ 11.4 $ 11.8 $ 12.1 $ 12.2 $ 12.2 $ 12.1 $ 12.0 $ 11.8 $ 11.6 $ 11.3 $ 11.0 $ 10.6 $ 10.2 $ 193.8 $ 16.6 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.4 $ 0.7 $ 1.0 $ 1.2 $ 1.5 $ 1.6 $ 1.7 $ 1.8 $ 1.8 $ 1.9 $ 1.9 $ 1.8 $ 1.8 $ 1.8 $ 1.8 $ 1.7 $ 1.7 $ 1.6 $ 1.6 $ 29.5 $ 2.5 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.8 $ 6.3 $ 10.2 $ 14.3 $ 18.5 $ 22.7 $ 24.8 $ 26.2 $ 27.2 $ 27.8 $ 28.1 $ 28.2 $ 28.1 $ 27.8 $ 27.4 $ 26.8 $ 26.2 $ 25.6 $ 24.6 $ 23.8 $ 447.5 $ 38.4 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.7 $ 6.3 $ 10.3 $ 14.5 $ 18.6 $ 22.5 $ 24.3 $ 25.1 $ 25.3 $ 25.1 $ 24.6 $ 23.8 $ 23.0 $ 22.1 $ 21.2 $ 20.2 $ 19.3 $ 18.3 $ 17.2 $ 16.3 $ 380.9 $ 32.7 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.4 $ 1.0 $ 1.6 $ 2.2 $ 2.8 $ 3.4 $ 3.7 $ 3.8 $ 3.9 $ 3.8 $ 3.7 $ 3.6 $ 3.5 $ 3.4 $ 3.2 $ 3.1 $ 2.9 $ 2.8 $ 2.6 $ 2.5 $ 58.0 $ 5.0 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 6.2 $ 14.5 $ 23.8 $ 33.3 $ 42.8 $ 51.8 $ 55.9 $ 57.8 $ 58.3 $ 57.8 $ 56.7 $ 55.1 $ 53.2 $ 51.2 $ 49.0 $ 46.8 $ 44.7 $ 42.6 $ 39.9 $ 37.8 $ 879.2 $ 75.4 Large Systems Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 64.1 $ 155.1 $ 262.3 $ 379.5 $ 460.8 $ 522.2 $ 565.7 $ 594.3 $ 609.4 $ 612.6 $ 607.6 $ 596.8 $ 582.0 $ 564.5 $ 545.1 $ 524.7 $ 503.6 $ 482.3 $ 455.0 $ 433.3 $ 9,520.9 $ 817.0 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 9.8 $ 23.8 $ 40.1 $ 58.1 $ 70.5 $ 79.8 $ 86.4 $ 90.8 $ 92.9 $ 93.3 $ 92.5 $ 90.8 $ 88.5 $ 85.9 $ 82.9 $ 79.6 $ 76.3 $ 73.0 $ 69.0 $ 65.6 $ 1,449.5 $ 124.4 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 147.3 $ 356.8 $ 602.6 $ 871.8 $ 1,059.3 $ 1,200.9 $ 1,300.8 $ 1,368.1 $ 1,403.9 $ 1,413.7 $ 1,402.8 $ 1,377.9 $ 1,346.0 $ 1,305.8 $ 1,261.6 $ 1,214.3 $ 1,166.5 $ 1,118.9 $ 1,055.1 $ 1,005.5 $ 21,979.7 $ 1,886.1 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 58.2 $ 129.4 $ 206.8 $ 286.7 $ 327.8 $ 354.0 $ 370.0 $ 379.7 $ 384.6 $ 385.9 $ 384.2 $ 380.3 $ 374.5 $ 367.2 $ 358.8 $ 349.5 $ 339.5 $ 329.1 $ 314.2 $ 302.6 $ 6,383.0 $ 547.7 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 8.9 $ 19.8 $ 31.6 $ 43.9 $ 50.1 $ 54.1 $ 56.5 $ 58.0 $ 58.6 $ 58.8 $ 58.5 $ 57.8 $ 56.9 $ 55.8 $ 54.5 $ 53.1 $ 51.5 $ 49.8 $ 47.6 $ 45.8 $ 971.9 $ 83.4 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 133.9 $ 297.7 $ 475.1 $ 658.5 $ 753.5 $ 814.2 $ 851.0 $ 874.0 $ 886.1 $ 890.5 $ 887.1 $ 878.0 $ 866.0 $ 849.5 $ 830.3 $ 808.9 $ 786.5 $ 763.5 $ 728.5 $ 702.3 $ 14,735.0 $ 1,264.4 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 117.6 $ 270.3 $ 437.5 $ 607.7 $ 695.4 $ 742.2 $ 761.1 $ 763.0 $ 753.7 $ 736.9 $ 715.1 $ 690.1 $ 663.2 $ 635.3 $ 607.0 $ 578.8 $ 551.0 $ 523.9 $ 491.1 $ 464.9 $ 11,806.0 $ 1,013.1 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 18.0 $ 41.4 $ 67.0 $ 93.0 $ 106.3 $ 113.5 $ 116.3 $ 116.5 $ 114.9 $ 112.2 $ 108.9 $ 105.0 $ 100.9 $ 96.6 $ 92.3 $ 87.9 $ 83.5 $ 79.3 $ 74.4 $ 70.4 $ 1,798.2 $ 154.3 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 270.2 $ 621.7 $ 1,005.1 $ 1,395.9 $ 1,598.7 $ 1,707.0 $ 1,750.2 $ 1,756.3 $ 1,736.4 $ 1,700.5 $ 1,650.9 $ 1,593.4 $ 1,533.9 $ 1,469.7 $ 1,404.8 $ 1,339.6 $ 1,276.4 $ 1,215.4 $ 1,138.8 $ 1,079.1 $ 27,244.1 $ 2,337.8 Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005. Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Derived from Exhibits F.21a through F.21L Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.21z Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 3% Discount Rate, by Small & Large Size Categories (Ground Water Systems) TTHM - Preferred Alternative, SWAT Method Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Ann. Small Systems Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.4 $ 3.4 $ 6.0 $ 9.0 $ 12.4 $ 16.1 $ 18.8 $ 20.9 $ 22.7 $ 24.1 $ 25.1 $ 25.8 $ 26.4 $ 26.7 $ 26.9 $ 27.0 $ 27.0 $ 26.9 $ 26.4 $ 26.2 $ 399.3 $ 22.9 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.5 $ 0.9 $ 1.4 $ 1.9 $ 2.5 $ 2.9 $ 3.2 $ 3.5 $ 3.7 $ 3.8 $ 3.9 $ 4.0 $ 4.1 $ 4.1 $ 4.1 $ 4.1 $ 4.1 $ 4.0 $ 4.0 $ 60.7 $ 3.5 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 3.1 $ 7.9 $ 13.8 $ 20.8 $ 28.6 $ 37.1 $ 43.2 $ 48.2 $ 52.3 $ 55.5 $ 58.0 $ 59.7 $ 61.0 $ 61.8 $ 62.3 $ 62.5 $ 62.5 $ 62.4 $ 61.3 $ 60.8 $ 922.5 $ 53.0 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.0 $ 2.4 $ 4.1 $ 6.0 $ 8.0 $ 10.2 $ 11.6 $ 12.7 $ 13.7 $ 14.5 $ 15.2 $ 15.9 $ 16.4 $ 16.9 $ 17.2 $ 17.6 $ 17.8 $ 18.0 $ 18.0 $ 18.1 $ 255.4 $ 14.7 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.4 $ 0.6 $ 0.9 $ 1.2 $ 1.6 $ 1.8 $ 1.9 $ 2.1 $ 2.2 $ 2.3 $ 2.4 $ 2.5 $ 2.6 $ 2.6 $ 2.7 $ 2.7 $ 2.7 $ 2.7 $ 2.7 $ 38.9 $ 2.2 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.4 $ 5.6 $ 9.4 $ 13.7 $ 18.5 $ 23.5 $ 26.7 $ 29.3 $ 31.6 $ 33.5 $ 35.2 $ 36.6 $ 37.9 $ 39.0 $ 39.9 $ 40.6 $ 41.3 $ 41.9 $ 41.7 $ 41.9 $ 590.2 $ 33.9 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.3 $ 5.6 $ 9.5 $ 13.9 $ 18.5 $ 23.3 $ 26.1 $ 28.0 $ 29.3 $ 30.2 $ 30.7 $ 31.0 $ 31.1 $ 31.0 $ 30.9 $ 30.6 $ 30.3 $ 30.0 $ 29.2 $ 28.7 $ 490.6 $ 28.2 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.4 $ 0.9 $ 1.5 $ 2.1 $ 2.8 $ 3.6 $ 4.0 $ 4.3 $ 4.5 $ 4.6 $ 4.7 $ 4.7 $ 4.7 $ 4.7 $ 4.7 $ 4.7 $ 4.6 $ 4.5 $ 4.4 $ 4.3 $ 74.6 $ 4.3 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 5.3 $ 12.9 $ 21.9 $ 32.0 $ 42.6 $ 53.6 $ 60.1 $ 64.6 $ 67.6 $ 69.7 $ 70.9 $ 71.6 $ 71.9 $ 71.8 $ 71.5 $ 70.9 $ 70.3 $ 69.5 $ 67.7 $ 66.7 $ 1,133.1 $ 65.1 Large Systems Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.4 $ 6.0 $ 10.5 $ 15.8 $ 20.5 $ 24.5 $ 27.7 $ 30.3 $ 32.3 $ 33.9 $ 35.0 $ 35.7 $ 36.3 $ 36.6 $ 36.8 $ 36.8 $ 36.7 $ 36.6 $ 35.9 $ 35.5 $ 565.6 $ 32.5 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.4 $ 0.9 $ 1.6 $ 2.4 $ 3.1 $ 3.7 $ 4.2 $ 4.6 $ 4.9 $ 5.2 $ 5.3 $ 5.4 $ 5.5 $ 5.6 $ 5.6 $ 5.6 $ 5.6 $ 5.5 $ 5.4 $ 5.4 $ 86.1 $ 4.9 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 5.4 $ 13.8 $ 24.2 $ 36.3 $ 47.1 $ 56.4 $ 63.7 $ 69.7 $ 74.5 $ 78.1 $ 80.7 $ 82.5 $ 83.9 $ 84.7 $ 85.1 $ 85.2 $ 85.1 $ 84.8 $ 83.2 $ 82.4 $ 1,306.6 $ 75.0 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.8 $ 4.2 $ 7.2 $ 10.4 $ 13.1 $ 15.2 $ 16.8 $ 18.2 $ 19.4 $ 20.4 $ 21.3 $ 22.1 $ 22.7 $ 23.3 $ 23.8 $ 24.2 $ 24.5 $ 24.7 $ 24.6 $ 24.7 $ 362.8 $ 20.8 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.3 $ 0.7 $ 1.1 $ 1.6 $ 2.0 $ 2.3 $ 2.6 $ 2.8 $ 3.0 $ 3.1 $ 3.2 $ 3.4 $ 3.5 $ 3.5 $ 3.6 $ 3.7 $ 3.7 $ 3.7 $ 3.7 $ 3.7 $ 55.2 $ 3.2 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 4.1 $ 9.8 $ 16.5 $ 24.0 $ 30.1 $ 35.0 $ 38.7 $ 42.0 $ 44.7 $ 47.2 $ 49.2 $ 51.0 $ 52.6 $ 53.9 $ 55.0 $ 55.9 $ 56.7 $ 57.4 $ 57.1 $ 57.3 $ 838.3 $ 48.1 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 4.0 $ 9.8 $ 16.7 $ 24.3 $ 30.3 $ 34.7 $ 37.6 $ 39.6 $ 40.9 $ 41.7 $ 42.2 $ 42.4 $ 42.4 $ 42.2 $ 41.9 $ 41.5 $ 41.0 $ 40.5 $ 39.4 $ 38.8 $ 692.0 $ 39.7 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.6 $ 1.5 $ 2.6 $ 3.7 $ 4.6 $ 5.3 $ 5.7 $ 6.0 $ 6.2 $ 6.4 $ 6.4 $ 6.4 $ 6.4 $ 6.4 $ 6.4 $ 6.3 $ 6.2 $ 6.1 $ 6.0 $ 5.9 $ 105.3 $ 6.0 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 9.2 $ 22.5 $ 38.3 $ 55.8 $ 69.7 $ 79.9 $ 86.5 $ 91.2 $ 94.3 $ 96.3 $ 97.5 $ 97.9 $ 98.0 $ 97.6 $ 97.0 $ 96.0 $ 95.0 $ 94.0 $ 91.5 $ 90.0 $ 1,598.1 $ 91.8 Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005. Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Derived from Exhibits F.21k through F.21s. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.21aa Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 7% Discount Rate, by Small & Large Size Categories (Ground Water Systems) TTHM - Preferred Alternative, SWAT Method Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Ann. Small Systems Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.1 $ 2.7 $ 4.6 $ 6.7 $ 8.8 $ 11.0 $ 12.4 $ 13.3 $ 13.8 $ 14.1 $ 14.2 $ 14.1 $ 13.8 $ 13.4 $ 13.0 $ 12.6 $ 12.1 $ 11.6 $ 11.0 $ 10.5 $ 214.9 $ 18.4 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.4 $ 0.7 $ 1.0 $ 1.3 $ 1.7 $ 1.9 $ 2.0 $ 2.1 $ 2.2 $ 2.2 $ 2.1 $ 2.1 $ 2.0 $ 2.0 $ 1.9 $ 1.8 $ 1.8 $ 1.7 $ 1.6 $ 32.7 $ 2.8 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.6 $ 6.3 $ 10.6 $ 15.3 $ 20.3 $ 25.3 $ 28.4 $ 30.5 $ 31.8 $ 32.6 $ 32.7 $ 32.4 $ 31.9 $ 31.1 $ 30.2 $ 29.2 $ 28.1 $ 27.0 $ 25.5 $ 24.4 $ 496.2 $ 42.6 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.9 $ 1.9 $ 3.1 $ 4.4 $ 5.7 $ 7.0 $ 7.6 $ 8.1 $ 8.3 $ 8.5 $ 8.6 $ 8.6 $ 8.6 $ 8.5 $ 8.4 $ 8.2 $ 8.0 $ 7.8 $ 7.5 $ 7.2 $ 137.0 $ 11.8 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.1 $ 0.3 $ 0.5 $ 0.7 $ 0.9 $ 1.1 $ 1.2 $ 1.2 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.2 $ 1.2 $ 1.2 $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 20.8 $ 1.8 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.0 $ 4.5 $ 7.2 $ 10.1 $ 13.1 $ 16.1 $ 17.5 $ 18.6 $ 19.2 $ 19.7 $ 19.9 $ 19.9 $ 19.8 $ 19.6 $ 19.3 $ 19.0 $ 18.6 $ 18.1 $ 17.4 $ 16.8 $ 316.3 $ 27.1 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.9 $ 4.5 $ 7.3 $ 10.3 $ 13.2 $ 15.9 $ 17.2 $ 17.8 $ 17.9 $ 17.7 $ 17.4 $ 16.9 $ 16.3 $ 15.6 $ 15.0 $ 14.3 $ 13.6 $ 13.0 $ 12.2 $ 11.5 $ 269.2 $ 23.1 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.3 $ 0.7 $ 1.1 $ 1.6 $ 2.0 $ 2.4 $ 2.6 $ 2.7 $ 2.7 $ 2.7 $ 2.6 $ 2.6 $ 2.5 $ 2.4 $ 2.3 $ 2.2 $ 2.1 $ 2.0 $ 1.8 $ 1.7 $ 41.0 $ 3.5 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 4.4 $ 10.2 $ 16.8 $ 23.6 $ 30.3 $ 36.6 $ 39.5 $ 40.9 $ 41.2 $ 40.9 $ 40.1 $ 38.9 $ 37.6 $ 36.2 $ 34.7 $ 33.1 $ 31.6 $ 30.1 $ 28.2 $ 26.7 $ 621.4 $ 53.3 Large Systems Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 2.0 $ 4.8 $ 8.1 $ 11.7 $ 14.5 $ 16.7 $ 18.2 $ 19.2 $ 19.7 $ 19.9 $ 19.7 $ 19.4 $ 19.0 $ 18.4 $ 17.8 $ 17.2 $ 16.5 $ 15.8 $ 14.9 $ 14.2 $ 307.7 $ 26.4 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.3 $ 0.7 $ 1.2 $ 1.8 $ 2.2 $ 2.6 $ 2.8 $ 2.9 $ 3.0 $ 3.0 $ 3.0 $ 3.0 $ 2.9 $ 2.8 $ 2.7 $ 2.6 $ 2.5 $ 2.4 $ 2.3 $ 2.2 $ 46.8 $ 4.0 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 4.5 $ 10.9 $ 18.5 $ 26.8 $ 33.4 $ 38.5 $ 41.9 $ 44.1 $ 45.4 $ 45.8 $ 45.6 $ 44.9 $ 43.9 $ 42.6 $ 41.3 $ 39.7 $ 38.2 $ 36.7 $ 34.6 $ 33.0 $ 710.4 $ 61.0 Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 1.5 $ 3.4 $ 5.5 $ 7.7 $ 9.3 $ 10.4 $ 11.1 $ 11.5 $ 11.8 $ 12.0 $ 12.0 $ 12.0 $ 11.9 $ 11.7 $ 11.5 $ 11.3 $ 11.0 $ 10.7 $ 10.2 $ 9.9 $ 196.5 $ 16.9 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.2 $ 0.5 $ 0.8 $ 1.2 $ 1.4 $ 1.6 $ 1.7 $ 1.8 $ 1.8 $ 1.8 $ 1.8 $ 1.8 $ 1.8 $ 1.8 $ 1.8 $ 1.7 $ 1.7 $ 1.6 $ 1.6 $ 1.5 $ 29.9 $ 2.6 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 3.4 $ 7.8 $ 12.6 $ 17.7 $ 21.3 $ 23.9 $ 25.5 $ 26.6 $ 27.3 $ 27.7 $ 27.8 $ 27.7 $ 27.5 $ 27.2 $ 26.7 $ 26.1 $ 25.5 $ 24.8 $ 23.8 $ 23.0 $ 453.8 $ 38.9 Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Mean Value $ $ $ $ $ $ 3.3 $ 7.8 $ 12.8 $ 17.9 $ 21.5 $ 23.7 $ 24.7 $ 25.1 $ 24.9 $ 24.5 $ 23.8 $ 23.0 $ 22.2 $ 21.3 $ 20.3 $ 19.4 $ 18.4 $ 17.5 $ 16.4 $ 15.5 $ 384.2 $ 33.0 90 Percent Confidence Bound Lower (5th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.5 $ 1.2 $ 2.0 $ 2.7 $ 3.3 $ 3.6 $ 3.8 $ 3.8 $ 3.8 $ 3.7 $ 3.6 $ 3.5 $ 3.4 $ 3.2 $ 3.1 $ 2.9 $ 2.8 $ 2.7 $ 2.5 $ 2.4 $ 58.5 $ 5.0 Upper (95th %tile) $ $ $ $ $ $ 7.6 $ 17.9 $ 29.3 $ 41.2 $ 49.5 $ 54.6 $ 56.9 $ 57.7 $ 57.4 $ 56.5 $ 55.0 $ 53.2 $ 51.3 $ 49.2 $ 47.0 $ 44.8 $ 42.7 $ 40.7 $ 38.1 $ 36.1 $ 886.6 $ 76.1 Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005. Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate. Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding. Derived from Exhibits F.21k through F.21s. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Exhibit F.21 ab Mean Present Value of Benefits Yeariy Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 3% Discount Rate, by System Size (All Systems) TTHM - Preferred Alternative, SWAT Method Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model 1,000-3,299 3,300-9,999 10,000-49,999 50,000-99,999 1,000-3,299 3,300-9,999 10,000-49,999 99,999 999,999 1,000-3,299 9,999 99,999 999,999 $ 3' $ 3 f $ 5 1 $ 5 1 $ 2 I $ 2 < Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBF/? December2005 ------- Exhibit F.21 ac Mean Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projectioi s, WTP for Lymphom (All Systems) is for Non-Fatal Cases, at 7% Discount Rate, by System Size TTHM - Preferred Alternative, SWAT Method Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Ann. <100 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 00 $ 00 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 02 $ 02 $ 02 $ 02 $ 02 $ 02 $ 02 $ 02 $ 02 $ 02 $ 02 $ 02 $ 02 $ 02 $ 02 S 0.3 100-499 S $ $ S $ 0 1 $ 04 S 09 $ 1 2 $ 1 4 $ 1 6 S 1 7 $ 1 B $ 19 S 1 B $ 18 $ 1 B $ 1 7 S 1 6 $ 1 6 $ 1 5 $ 1 4 500-999 $ $ $ $ $ 02 $ 04 $ 1 1 $ 1 4 $ 1 8 $ 20 $ 2 1 $ 22 $ 23 $ 23 $ 22 $ 22 $ 22 $ 2 1 $ 20 $ 1 9 $ 1 9 $ 1 7 1,000-3,299 $ $ $ $ $ 07 $ 1 7 $ 4 1 $ 54 $ 68 $ 76 $ 87 $ 87 $ 86 $ 85 $ 83 $ 80 $ 77 $ 74 $ 7 1 $ 64 3,300-9,999 $ $ S $ $ 1 7 $ 4 1 $ 100 $ 132 $ 164 $ 185 $ 198 $ 206 $ 21 1 $ 21 2 $ 21 0 $ 206 $ 20 1 $ 195 $ 188 $ 181 $ 174 $ 157 10,000-49,999 S $ $ S $ 78 $ 189 S 463 $ 61 5 $ 740 $ 823 S 879 $ 91 5 $ 932 $ 934 S 923 $ 905 $ 881 $ 853 S 823 $ 792 $ 759 $ 684 50,000-99,999 $ $ $ $ S $ 65 $ 157 $ 385 $ 485 $ 552 $ 60 1 $ 633 $ 652 $ 657 $ 653 $ 642 $ 627 $ 608 $ 588 $ 566 $ 543 $ 520 $ 468 100,000- 999599 $ $ $ $ $ $ 283 $ 684 $ 1673 $ 1996 $ 2237 $ 241 1 $ 2524 $ 2580 $ 2586 $ 2559 $ 251 0 $ 2445 $ 2370 $ 2287 $ 2200 $ 211 1 $ 2021 « ,B,S >1, 000,000 $ $ $ $ $ $ 235 $ 96 1 $ 139 1 $ 1659 S 1859 $ 2004 $ 2099 $ 2145 S 2150 $ 2128 $ 2087 $ 2033 S 1970 $ 1902 $ 1829 $ 1755 $ 1585 $ 1509 Total $ $ $ $ $ $ 688 $ 1665 $ 281 5 $ 4073 $ 4967 $ 5655 $ 6137 $ 6455 $ 6625 $ 6666 $ 661 6 $ 650 1 $ 6343 $ 6154 $ 5944 $ 5723 $ 5494 $ 5262 « m. Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model <100 S - $ - S - $ 00 $ 00 $ 0 1 S 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 S 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 S 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 S 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 $ 0 1 100-499 $ S $ $ 0 1 $ 03 $ 04 $ 06 $ 07 $ 09 $ 1 0 $ 1 1 $ 1 1 $ 1 1 $ 1 1 $ 1 1 $ 1 1 $ 1 1 $ 1 1 $ 1 1 $ 1 0 $ 1 0 $ 09 500-999 $ $ $ $ 0 1 $ 03 $ 05 S 07 $ 09 $ 1 1 $ 1 2 S 1 3 $ 1 3 $ 1 4 $ 1 4 S 1 4 $ 1 4 $ 1 4 $ 1 3 S 1 3 $ 1 3 $ 1 2 $ 1 2 1,000-3,299 $ S $ $ 05 $ 1 2 $ 27 $ 35 $ 43 $ 47 $ 49 $ 5 1 $ 52 $ 53 $ 53 $ 53 $ 52 $ 5 1 $ 50 $ 49 $ 48 3,300-9,999 S $ S $ 1 3 S 29 $ 47 $ 66 $ 85 S 104 $ 114 $ 120 $ 125 S 127 $ 129 $ 129 $ 128 S 127 $ 125 $ 122 $ 120 S 117 « ,BB 10,000- 49599 $ $ $ $ $ 70 $ 156 $ 249 $ 346 $ 443 $ 51 2 $ 546 $ 568 $ 587 $ 588 $ 585 $ 578 $ 568 $ 55 7 $ 544 $ 529 $ 514 50,000-99,999 $ $ $ $ $ 59 $ 130 $ 208 $ 289 $ 346 $ 375 $ 3B4 $ 41 1 $ 41 3 $ 41 2 $ 408 $ 402 $ 395 $ 386 $ 376 $ 366 $ 354 100,000- 999599 $ $ $ $ $ $ 255 $ 5BB $ 1259 $ 1408 $ 1504 $ 1567 $ 1622 $ 1625 $ 161 7 $ 1599 $ 1574 $ 1543 $ 1507 $ 1467 $ 1425 $ 1381 « ,2BB > 1,000 ,000 $ $ $ $ $ $ 21 3 $ 474 $ 1050 $ 1173 $ 1253 $ 1305 $ 1350 $ 1353 $ 1346 $ 1331 $ 131 0 $ 1283 $ 1253 $ 1220 $ 1185 $ ,,4B Total $ $ $ $ $ $ 61 B S 1375 $ 3051 $ 3508 S 381 3 $ 3995 $ 4107 $ 4166 S 4185 $ 4171 $ 4131 $ 4071 $ 3994 $ 3905 $ 3806 $ 3699 $ 35BB Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model <100 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 00 $ 0 1 $ 02 $ 02 $ 03 $ 03 $ 03 $ 03 $ 03 $ 03 $ 03 $ 03 $ 03 $ 03 $ 02 $ 02 $ 02 100-499 S $ $ $ $ $ 02 $ 06 S 1 3 $ 1 7 $ 2 1 $ 22 S 23 $ 23 $ 23 $ 23 S 22 $ 2 1 $ 20 $ 20 S 1 9 $ 18 $ 1 7 500-999 $ $ $ $ $ $ 03 $ 07 $ 16 $ 2 1 $ 26 $ 28 $ 28 $ 28 $ 27 $ 26 $ 25 $ 24 $ 23 $ 22 $ 2 1 1,000-3,299 $ $ $ $ $ $ 1 2 $ 27 $ 63 $ 81 $ 98 $ 105 $ 109 $ 110 $ 109 $ 106 $ 103 $ 100 $ 96 $ 92 $ 88 $ 84 $ 80 $ 75 $ 7 1 3,300-9,999 $ $ $ $ S $ 28 $ 66 $ 153 $ 197 $ 238 $ 257 $ 265 $ 267 $ 265 $ 259 $ 252 $ 243 $ 234 $ 224 $ 214 $ 204 $ 194 $ 172 10,000- 49599 $ $ $ $ $ $ 142 $ 328 $ 739 $ 942 $ 1082 $ 1141 $ 1163 $ 1162 $ 1145 $ 1117 $ 1082 $ 1043 $ 1002 $ 959 $ 91 5 $ 872 $ 830 $ 779 $ 738 50,000-99,999 $ $ $ $ S $ 119 $ 273 $ 61 5 $ 736 $ 79 1 $ 81 9 $ 794 $ 77 1 $ 745 $ 71 6 $ 686 $ 656 $ 626 $ 596 $ 53 1 $ 503 100,000- 999599 $ $ $ $ $ $ 51 7 $ 1189 $ 2676 $ 2998 $ 3160 $ 3223 $ 3221 $ 3175 $ 3099 $ 3004 $ 2897 $ 2782 $ 2664 $ 2544 $ 2425 $ 2308 $ 2194 $ 2057 $ 1947 >1, 000,000 $ $ S $ $ $ 430 S 990 $ 2226 $ 2493 S 2627 $ 2679 $ 2677 $ 2639 S 2576 $ 2497 $ 2408 $ 231 2 S 2214 $ 211 5 $ 201 6 $ 191 9 S 1824 $ 1709 $ 161 8 Total S $ $ $ $ $ 1254 $ 2BBB S 6504 $ 7487 $ 8044 $ 8273 S 8309 $ 8041 $ 7808 S 7539 $ 7247 $ 6943 $ 6635 S 6327 $ 6024 $ 5727 $ 5369 $ 5083 of 2003 dollars Estimat Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR December 2005 ------- Appendix G Illustrative Calculation for Quantifying Potential Reproductive/Developmental Benefits of the Stage 2 DBPR ------- ------- Appendix G Illustrative Calculation for Quantifying Potential Reproductive/Developmental Benefits of the Stage 2 DBPR G.I Introduction and Purpose The purpose of this Appendix is to support Section 6.8.1 by providing details for an illustrative calculation that quantifies the potential benefits of reduced fetal losses (miscarriage and stillbirth) which may be attributable to the reduction in elevated disinfection byproduct (DBF) levels resulting from the Stage 2 Disinfection Byproduct Rule (DBPR). Human epidemiology studies and animal toxicology studies have examined associations between chlorinated drinking water or DBFs and reproductive and developmental health effects. Based on an evaluation of the available science, EPA believes the data suggest that exposure to DBFs is a potential reproductive and developmental health hazard. Fetal loss was chosen from the reported reproductive and developmental health endpoints (including neural tube defects, low birth weight, cardiovascular effects, intrauterine growth retardation and cleft palate, etc.) because there are relatively more epidemiological data for it in comparison to the other endpoints and evidence is suggestive of an association between fetal loss and chlorinated water or DBF exposure. In addition, fetal loss occurs frequently in the United States, where approximately 1 in 6 of the 6 million pregnancies each year results in a fetal loss (Ventura et al. 2000). Consequently, even a small risk attributable to DBFs (e.g., 0.1 percent) may represent many fetal losses (n=l,000) and any reduction in fetal loss due to the Stage 2 DBPR would represent a significant benefit. The existing epidemiological studies for fetal loss endpoints remain inconsistent as a whole, and the science on these effects as a result of DBF exposure is not strong enough to establish a causal relationship or quantify risk or benefits in the primary analysis. Nevertheless, given the widespread nature of exposure to DBFs, the importance our society places on reproductive and developmental health, and the large number of fetal losses experienced each year in the US, the Agency believes that it is important to provide some quantitative indication of the potential risk suggested by some of the published results on reproductive and developmental endpoints, despite the absence of a demonstrated causal link between disinfection byproducts and these risks. Section G.2 describes the derivation of potential Population Attributable Risk (PAR) values relating fetal losses to DBP exposure. Section G.3 presents the calculation of potential fetal losses avoided as a result of the Stage 2 DBPR. Assumptions and uncertainties in these calculations are summarized in Section G.4. G.2 Derivation of Illustrative PARs from Four Epidemiological Studies Fetal losses potentially attributable to DBFs in drinking water were estimated using the PAR approach, similar to the approach used to quantify benefits associated with reduced incidence of bladder cancer cases in the main benefits analysis. PAR is the fraction of a disease that occurs in the population that is attributable to some specified risk factor. By extension, it also implies the fraction of that disease that would be eliminated from the population if the specified risk factor was eliminated. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR G-l December 2005 ------- To derive the PAR estimate, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) evaluated four published population-based human epidemiological studies: Savitz et al. 2005 Waller etal. 2001 King et al. 2000a Savitz etal. 1995 Exhibit G. 1 summarizes the key characteristics of these studies. All four are considered high quality studies as they conform to the following criteria: 1) population-based-case-control or cohort study that ascertained exposure to chlorinated surface water (a chloramine residual disinfectant was used in the distribution system in two of the three study populations from Savitz et al. 2005), 2) high quality, well- designed study that had sufficient sample size, high response rate1, and adjusted for known confounding factors, and 3) exposure assessment using information from water treatment data, residential histories, and trihalomethane (THM) measurement data. These are the same criteria used to select the bladder cancer studies for the primary benefits analysis for both Stage 1 and Stage 2 DBPR. 1 Note: The Savitz et al. 1995 study had a response rate of 62 percent for miscarriage cases which is not unexpected due to the highly sensitive nature of this event. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR G-2 December 2005 ------- Exhibit G.1 Summary of the Fetal Loss Human Epidemiological Studies Study Waller et al. 2001 King et al. 2000a Savitz et al. 1995 Savitz et al. 2005 Type of Study and Population Prospective cohort of 4,209 pregnant women in prepaid health plan in CA 1989-91 Population-based retrospective cohort of 47,275 births in Nova Scotia, Canada 1988-1995 Population-based case-control study of 126 cases and 122 controls in NC 1988-91 Prospective cohort of 2413 pregnant women from 3 water systems in the U.S., 2000- 2004 Exposure Assessment Used utility total trihalomethane (TTHM) data to estimate exposure via ingestion and showering during first trimester of pregnancy. Linked mother's residence at time of delivery to the levels of specific TTHMs monitored in the distribution system of the utility and averaged predicted values of TTHM levels for all the months covering the pregnancy. Linked existing distribution system TTHM concentration data to maternal residence and water consumption data. Fourth week of pregnancy used to assign the reported quarterly average TTHM. Weekly or biweekly distribution system DBP concentration data were collected and linked with maternal residence and water consumption data (during first and second trimesters). Periconceptual, early and late gestational exposure windows were examined. Outcome Spontaneous abortion (< 20 weeks of gestation) Stillbirth Spontaneous abortion Spontaneous abortion, including early (<12 wks) and late(>=12 wks) fetal losses Potential Confounders Evaluated Gestational age at interview, maternal age, cigarette smoking, history of pregnancy loss, maternal race, employment during pregnancy Smoking, maternal age Maternal age, race, education, marital status, poverty level, smoking, alcohol use, nausea, employment Maternal age, tobacco use, race, ethnicity, education, marital status, income, alcohol use, caffeine consumption, body mass index, age at menarche, employment, diabetes, pregnancy history, prior fetal loss, induced abortion history, vitamin use The PARs were derived using the Relative Risk (RR) measures such as the odds ratio and risk ratios from the four studies. To determine the fraction of cases within the exposed population that would be attributable to a specific exposure (i.e., PAR value), the proportion of exposed cases can be derived from either the study population or national occurrence information. To calculate a PAR value as a percent using the study-exposed fraction, Equation G. 1 would be used. Equation G.2, which is mathematically equivalent to Equation G.I, would be used when adjusting the exposed fraction using the national occurrence data. RR refers to the relative risk estimates, Pc refers to the prevalence of exposure in the cases (the total number of exposed cases/total number of cases), and Pe refers to the fraction of the population that is exposed. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR G-3 December 2005 ------- [ [Pex(RR-l)]+l (EquationG.l) G-2> It is common practice to use the study population-derived exposed fraction of cases to calculate the PAR estimate (Equation G. 1) by making the assumption that the study populations are representative of the general U.S. population. However, analysis of the 1998 Information Collection Rule (ICR) occurrence data show that study populations have higher DBF exposures than the general U.S. population. National DBF exposure estimates are compared to study population exposures in Section G.2. 1 . Section G.2.2 follows with a detailed derivation of PAR using Equation G.2 (adjusted to be more representative of national exposure levels). G.2.1 DBF Exposure for Study Populations Compared to National Data Section 5.6 provides a basis for why ICR data can be used to represent national exposure to DBFs. Below is a discussion of how EPA compared the ICR data to the exposure characterizations of the four epidemiology studies. The data are presented in a different manner than in 5 .6.2 to reflect the specific methodologies used in the epidemiological studies to characterize exposure. Summary of exposure characterizations from epidemiological studies The four epidemiological studies used in this analysis differ in geographic location, health endpoint definitions, study type, and exposure classification. Major features of the studies are summarized in Exhibit G. 1 . Subjects from the four studies were assigned exposure scores based on distribution system THM concentrations and grouped into exposure categories. The most relevant categorizations were those most closely related to the Stage 2 DBPR maximum contaminant level (MCL) of 80 micrograms per liter (|-ig/L). Exhibits G.2 and G.3 presents the study data that are used to assess representativeness of national exposure in this appendix. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR G-4 December 2005 ------- Exhibit G.2 DBF Exposure Data for Cohort Studies (Waller et al. 2001, King et al. 2000a, and Savitz et al. 2005) Study Waller et al. 2001, Table 2 King et al. 2000a, Table 3 Savitz et al. 2005 4 Exposure 1st Trimester Mean TTHM > 80 • g/L 1st Trimester Mean TTHM < 80 u.g/L Pregnancy Mean TTHM > 75 • g/L Pregnancy Mean TTHM < 75 • g/L 1st Trimester Mean TTHM > 75 • g/L 1st Trimester Mean TTHM < 75 • g/L Cases 74 322 75 122 45 210 Non-Cases 578 3,238 15,0002 32,000 376 1681 Percent of Population 15.5%' 84.5% 32% 3 68% 18.2% 81 .8% Notes: 1. As derived from original study data: (488+164)/(488+164+488+1139+715+654+564) =652/(652+3560)=15.5 percent 2. Non-cases were back-calculated from information provided in the paper. Total subjects at an exposure level was estimated by dividing the number of cases by the "Rate" from Table 3 of King et al., which is the ratio of cases to subjects. Non-cases equals the difference between total subjects and cases. Estimates above are shown to two significant figures because the Rates were only given to two significant figures. 3. As derived from original study data: (31+44+7350+7813)/(31+44+7350+7813+43+79+12987+18730)= 15,258/(15,258+31,840)=32.4 percent. Estimates are shown to two significant figures. 4. Personal communication, Richard MacLehose (University of North Carolina). Study population used in the analysis was similar to the exclusion criteria used in Waller et al. 1998. Exhibit G.3 DBF Exposure Data for Savitz et al. (1995) Case-Control Study Study Savitz et al. 1995, Table 2 Exposure 1st Trimester Mean TTHM > 81 »g/L 1st Trimester Mean TTHM < 81 'g/L Cases 46 80 Controls 43 79 Percent of Population 1 35.2% 2 64.8% Notes: 1. For case-control studies, the distribution of population exposure is most appropriately represented by the control group only. 2. 43/(43+79) = 35.2 percent Comparison of exposure between ICR data and study populations EPA derived national exposure estimates based on the ICR data using the exposure study definitions by Waller et al. 2001, Savitz et al. 1995, King et al. 2000b, and Savitz et al. 2005. For the Waller et al. study, EPA used the first trimester utility wide average, rather than the closest-site estimate, as only this definition could be applied to the ICR data. This decision is supported by data from Waller et Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR G-5 December 2005 ------- al. 2001 indicating that there was little difference between the exposure estimates derived from the utility- wide average versus the closest-site estimates. In analyzing the ICR data for purpose of exposure comparison with the Waller et al. study, EPA considered the plants having data from at least three distribution system locations with at least three valid results for both total trihalomethanes (TTHM) and haloacetic acid (HAAS) during 1998, the final year of the ICR survey (i.e., ICR quarters 3, 4, 5, and 6). Among these plants, 336 of the 4,482 observations (7.5 percent) were greater than 80 u,g/L, and therefore are categorized as high-exposure per Waller et al. The Savitz et al. 1995 and Savitz et al. 2005 studies also used utility wide averages as the basis for the first trimester exposure estimates. However, the Savitz et al. 1995 paper used 81 u.g/L as their study population reference point. Since it is very close to 80 u.g/L, EPA assumed the same percent observations as for Waller et al. Thus, the 7.5 percent exposure estimate for 80 u,g/L is used to estimate the PAR value for the Savitz et al. 1995 study. To estimate the PAR value for the Savitz et al. 2005 study, EPA used the study's reference THM concentration of 75 u,g/L since adjusted ORs for that concentration pertained to the first trimester calculation. The ICR data indicated that 399 of the 4,482 observations (8.9 percent) were greater than 75 u.g/L. The basis for these calculations is shown in Section G.3.1 For the King et al. study, exposure was estimated by averaging predicted TTHM values for the months covering the duration of the mother's pregnancy and using 75 |J.g/L as the exposure concentration for comparisons. To relate the King et al. exposure estimate to the ICR data, EPA calculated locational nine month running averages based on 3 consecutive quarters of the ICR data. Each ICR plant location provided three or four nine-month running averages, taking quarters (3,4,5), (4,5,6), (5,6,3), or (6,3,4). Of the 3,679 location-nine-month averages from the ICR data, 222 (6.0 percent) exceeded 75 u.g/L, and therefore are categorized as high-exposure per the King et al. study. See Section G.3.1 for these calculations. Exhibit G.4 compares DBP exposures for the studies and ICR data using the study exposure definitions. The fraction of cases among the study population experiencing TTHM occurrences over 80 ug/L (current TTHM MCL) is 15 percent to 35 percent for Waller et al. and Savitz et al. 1995 respectively, while the fraction of cases over 75 ug/L is 32 percent for the King et al. study and 18 percent for the Savitz et al. 2005 study. National ICR DBP occurrence data indicate that approximately 7.5 percent of the U.S. population are potentially exposed to TTHM levels higher than the current MCL of 80 ug/L during any of the four quarters during the last 12 months of the ICR. Exhibit G.4: Comparison of DBP Exposures: Fractions Exposed in Epidemiologic Studies and ICR Populations Data Source Study Population ICR Population Waller et al. (1st trimester > 80 • g/L) 15.5% 7.5% Savitz etal. 1995 (1st trimester > 81 • g/L) 35.2% 7.5% King et al. (pregnancy mean > 75 • g/L) 32.4% 6.0% Savitz et al. 2005 (1st trimester > 75 •9/L) 18.2%1 8.9% Notes: 1. Personal communication, Richard MacLehose (University of North Carolina) (MacLehose 2005). Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR G-6 December 2005 ------- G.2.2 PAR Results Using OR or RR and Scaling to National Exposure PAR estimates were derived using risk estimates and odds ratios calculated from the studies (summarized in Exhibit G.5). Each study assigned pregnancies to multiple exposure categories, but the exposure category closest to the Stage 2 DBP TTHM MCL (80 (ig/L) was used to calculate crude odds ratio and risk ratios. For the Waller et al. 2001 and Savitz et al. 1995 studies, persons with exposure to greater than or equal to 80 (ig/L and 81 (ig/L, respectively, were defined as "exposed." For the King et al. 2000 and Savitz et al. 2005 studies, the cut-off was established at 75 (ig/L. In addition, to make the results from the Waller et al. 2001 study comparable to the other studies, the utility-wide, unweighted average TTHM concentrations were used. Individual water consumption data were not considered since these data were not collected in all of the studies under consideration. For this analysis, crude odds ratios and risk ratios were used because it was not possible to calculate relative risk estimates adjusted for the same confounders from the four studies. Regardless, when comparisons were made between crude and adjusted values, studies did not find a significant difference between the two estimates (e.g., King et al. 2000 and Savitz et al. 2005). The crude odds and risk ratios were calculated from the reported number of cases and non-cases (or controls) at high and low exposure levels, except for the Savitz et al. 2005 study (which reported the odds ratio needed). The data summarized in Exhibit G.2 were used to derive the risk ratio. An example calculation using the Waller et al. cohort study follows: a = cases among those exposed at the higher level = 74 b = cases among those exposed at the lower level = 322 c = non-cases among those exposed at the higher level = 578 d = non-cases among those exposed at the lower level = 3238 RR = risk ratio in equation G.3 and G.4. a + c b (Equation G.3) This estimate was then used to derive a PAR, given the ICR-based estimate of fraction exposed at the higher level, ICR_pe = 7.5%: (RR- l)-ICR_pe PARTrR = = 0.0188 (Eauation G 4) 1CR (RR - l)-ICR_pe + 1 liquation u.4; Calculations for the Savitz et al. 1995 case-control study were similar, but based on odds ratio rather than risk ratio: a = cases exposed at the higher level b = cases exposed at the lower level c = controls exposed at the higher level d = controls exposed at the lower level OR = odds ratio OR=-.- (Equation G.5) c b Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR G-7 December 2005 ------- Confidence intervals for risk and odds ratios are based on likelihood functions (likelihood of the data, as a function of risk ratio or odds ratio). The 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of the cumulative likelihood functions defined the 95% confidence intervals. In all four studies, the lower confidence bounds around the relative risk measures were less than 1.0, so the confidence bounds from the corresponding ICR-based PAR estimates included some values less than zero (which indicate that there maybe no risk). Exhibit G.5 RR, OR, and PAR Estimates for Four Epidemiological Studies Study Waller et al. 2001 Savitz et al. 1995 Savitz et al. 2005 King et al. 2000a Crude Relative Risk Estimates 2 Odds Ratio/ Risk Ratio RR = 1 .25 OR = 1 .06 OR = 0.96 5 RR = 1 .28 95% Confidence Interval (1.0, 1.6) (0.6, 1.8) (0.68, 1.35)5 (1.0, 1.7) Attributable Risk Estimates 3 PAR 1 .9 % 0.4 % 0% 1 .7 % 95% Confidence Interval (0, 4) % (-3, 6) % 4 (-3, 3) % 4 (0, 4) % Notes: 1. Estimates slightly differ from those of the Stage 2 Proposal because of minor adjustments to calculations and use of the new population exposure fractions shown in Exhibit G.4 and discussed in Section 5.6 2. With the exception of the Savitz et al. 2005 study which reported the appropriate OR and 95% confidence interval, crude odds ratios were calculated by EPA for high exposure levels as described in Section G.2.2 3. Based on Equation G.2: % PAR = 100% * (Pe)* (RR-1) / [(RR-1)* Pe + 1] where Pe is the fraction of the exposed population and RR is Risk Ratio or Odds Ratio 4. Lower confidence bounds below zero indicate that there may be no risk 5. Savitz et al. 2005, Table 6.1, page 75 G.3 Estimate of Potential Annual Fetal Losses Avoided as a Result of the Stage 2 DBPR Three of the four epidemiological studies used for the PAR analysis covered exposure periods that occurred between 1988 and 1995, before implementation of the Stage 1 DBPR. The fourth study (Savitz et al. 2005) covered the period 2000 to 2004. Therefore, to calculate the number of fetal losses avoided for Stage 2, EPA calculated the potential losses avoided for Stage 1 first, then estimate the percent of remaining post-Stage 1 cases that could potentially avoided as a consequence of the Stage 2 DBPR To estimate the percent reduction in peak exposure, EPA used the ICR Matrix Method to estimate the fraction peak TTHM observations for pre-Stage 1, pre-Stage 2 (post-Stage 1), and post-Stage 2 scenarios1. Because developmental and reproductive health data described in section 6.2 does not conclusively identify an exposure level of concern, several possible TTHM study levels (including concentrations of 80 and 75 |_ig/L to correlate with the available epidemiological study reference points) that EPA uses a 20% safety margin in the compliance forecast analysis for this illustrative calculation. By not incorporating the uncertainty in the impacts of the initial distribution system evaluation (IDSE), the results of this illustrative analysis are potentially biased downward. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR G-8 December 2005 ------- were evaluated. From these fractions, the percent reduction in peak exposures attributed to the Stage 2 DBPR can be calculated. Section G.3.2 shows the derivation of these estimates Section G.3.2 shows the derivation of fetal losses avoided as a result of the Stage 2 DBPR for a PAR value of 1.9 percent from the Waller et al. study, which represents the top value in the range. The same steps can be used to derive the results for the other fetal loss estimates. Results show that an approximate range of 0 to 3,700 fetal losses could potentially be avoided per year as a result of the Stage 2 DBPR. Section G.4 provides discussion of the assumptions and uncertainties for the derivation of potential fetal losses avoided as a result of the Stage 2 DBPR. G.3.1 Reduction in Exposure to Peaks This section summarizes the analysis of the reduced frequency of peak TTHM and HAAS occurrences as a result of the Stage 1 and Stage 2 for observations and three-quarter averages. See section 5.6.1 for more details on the ICR Matrix Method approach for the reduction in peak values. Characterization of peak TTHM and HAAS levels for plants in each bin is shown in the tables on the right-hand side of Exhibits G.6a for observations and G.6b for three-quarter averages. The first column shows the total number of locations in the bin. Subsequent columns show the percent of the TTHM observations above study levels of 60, 75, 80, and 100 (ig/L followed by the percent of HAAS observations above 45, 60, and 75 (ig/L. The subsequent columns for three-quarter averages show the number of three-quarter averages greater than 75 (ig/L. Shaded rows represent those sampling locations associated with non-compliant plants that are expected to make treatment technology changes to meet Stage 1, then Stage 2 compliance. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR G-9 December 2005 ------- Exhibit G.6a ICR Matrix Method for Peak Observations for the Stage 2 DBPR, 20 Percent Safety Margin, Large Surface and Ground Water Plants P re-Stage 1 Bin A1 A2 B2 All Plants Number of Observations 3,212 555 715 4,482 Observations with TTHM >60 ug/L 159 169 387 715 Observations with TTHM >75 ug/L 33 87 279 399 Observations with TTHM >80 ug/L 21 69 246 336 Observations with TTHM >100 ug/L 4 18 119 141 Observations with HAAS >45 ug/L 98 132 345 575 Observations with HAAS >60 ug/L 13 37 217 267 Observations with HAAS >75 ug/L 3 9 127 139 P re-Stage 2 Bin A1 A2 m : All Plants Number of Observations 3,212 555 7/I5 4,482 Observations with TTHM >60 ug/L 159 169 48 377 Observations with TTHM >75 ug/L 33 87 5 125 Observations with TTHM >80 ug/L 21 69 / 91 Observations with TTHM >100 ug/L 4 18 0 22 Observations with HAAS >45 ug/L 98 132 28 256 Observations with HAAS >60 ug/L 13 37 2 52 Observations with HAAS >75 ug/L 3 9 0 12 Post-Stage 2 Bin A1 /./ BZ : All Plants Number of Observations 3,212 ,,555 .' ^15 - 4,482 Observations with TTHM >60 ug/L 159 ,-' ,,48 246 Observations with TTHM >75 ug/L 33 // / J5 42 Observations with TTHM >80 ug/L 21 X1 ,'1 23 Observations with TTHM >100 ug/L 4 8 .,o 4 Observations with HAAS >45 ug/L 98 ^0 ^ 144 Observations with HAAS >60 ug/L 13 /* ^ 17 Observations with HAAS >75 ug/L 3 Q ,-• /B 3 Notes: 1) In the Pre-Stage 1 tables, A1 through B2 are the number of locations for ICR plants that meet the criteria for each bin under pre-Stage 1 conditions. A total of 4,482 observations for 311 screened ICR surface and ground water plants were evaluated. 2) Each cell (bin) represents a range of the TTHM and HAAS RAA concentrations and Maximum LRAA concentrations in • g/L (i.e., RAA <64/48 means the plant needs to have its TTHM RAA level below 64 ug/L and its HAAS RAA level below 48 ug/L to be placed into the bin). The maximum TTHM or HAAS result determines the bin placement. Note that bins are based on a 20 percent safety margin on the Stage 1 and Stage 2 MCLs. 3) Crossed-out bins represent plants that have moved from out of compliance bins to in compliance bins. 4) The gray bins on the right-hand side represents bins that have moved into compliance with pre-Stage 2 and post-Stage 2. The percent observations with TTHM and HAAS concentrations above each study level is the percent of observations above the study level for those ICR plants that are compliant with Stage 1 and Stage 2 and use an advanced treatment technology and/or chloramines (as shown in Exhibit 5.26). Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR G-10 December 2005 ------- Exhibit G.6b ICR Matrix Method for Three-Quarter Averages Greater than 75 ug/L for the Stage 2 DBPR, 20 Percent Safety Margin, Large Surface and Ground Water Plants Pre-Stage 1 Max LRAA <64/48 >= 64/48 (S2 non- compliant) RAA <64/48 >=64/48 (S1 non compliant) A1 A2 B2 Bin A1 A2 B2 All Plants Number of Terms 2,648 433 598 3,679 Pregnancy Terms with mean TTHM >75 ug/L 0 28 194 222 Pre-Stage 2 Max LRAA <64/48 >= 64/48 (S2 non- compliant) RAA <64/48 >=64/48 (S1 non compliant) A1+B2 A2 Post-Stage 2 Max LRAA <64/48 >= 64/48 (S2 non- compliant) RAA <64/48 =64/48 (S1 non compliant) A1+B2+A2 Bin A1 A2 ,-'B? - All Plants Number of Terms 2,648 433 ,8f§ ' 3,679 Pregnancy Terms with mean TTHM >75 ug/L 0 28 ,P 28 Bin A1 /" Bf ' All Plants Number of Terms 2,648 433 5|8 3,679 Pregnancy Terms with mean TTHM >75 ug/L 0 Q 0 0 Notes: 1) In the Pre-Stage 1 tables, A1 through B2 are the number of three-quarter averages for ICR plants that meet the criteria for each bin under pre-Stage 1 conditions. A total of 3,679 three-quarter terms for 311 screened ICR surface and ground water plants were evaluated. 2) Each cell (bin) represents a range of the TTHM and HAAS RAA concentrations and Maximum LRAA concentrations in • g/L (i.e., RAA <64/48 means the plant needs to have its TTHM RAA level below 64 ug/L and its HAAS RAA level below 48 ug/L to be placed into the bin). The maximum TTHM or HAAS result determines the bin placement. Note that bins are based on a 20 percent safety margin on the Stage 1 and Stage 2 MCLs. 3) Crossed-out bins represent plants that have moved from out of compliance bins to in compliance bins. 4) The gray bins on the right-hand side represents bins that have moved into compliance with pre-Stage 2 and post-Stage 2. The percent three-quarter averages with TTHM and HAAS concentrations above each study level is the percent of three-quarter averages above the study level for those ICR plants that are compliant with Stage 1 and Stage 2 and use an advanced treatment technology and/or chloramines (as shown in Exhibit 5.26). Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR G-ll December 2005 ------- Similar to the method explained in Section 5.6.1, EPA used information on the occurrence of peaks for ICR plants using advanced treatment technologies and/or chloramines at the time of the ICR to estimate the occurrence of peaks for plants predicted to change treatment technology to comply with the Stage 1 and Stage 2 DBPRs. The results of the analysis of TTHM and HAAS peaks for this subset of plants is summarized in Exhibits G.7a and G.7b. The frequency of peak TTHM and HAAS observations in Exhibits G.7a are assumed to represent the frequency of peak TTHM and HAAS observations for plants that will make treatment technology changes to meet the Stage 1 and Stage 2 rules (identified as shaded rows for the pre-Stage 2 and post-Stage 2 tables in Exhibits G.6a and G.6b). A similar analysis was used to determine the frequency of three-quarter averages greater than 75 (ig/L in Exhibit G.7b. Exhibits G.8a and G.8b summarize the results for each TTHM study level for observations and three-quarter averages. Using the ICR Matrix Method approach, the predicted percent of peak observations declines from 7.5 percent for pre-Stage 1 to 2.0 percent for pre-Stage 2 to 0.5 percent for post-Stage 2 DBPR conditions at a TTHM study level of 80 |_ig/L. For three-quarter averages greater than 75 |J-g/L, the percentage declines from 6.0 percent for pre-Stage 1 to 0.8 percent for pre-Stage 2 to 0 percent for post-Stage 2 DBPR conditions. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR G-12 December 2005 ------- Exhibit G.7a Frequency of Occurrence of Peak Observations for ICR Surface and Ground Water Plants Using Chloramines and/or Advanced Treatment Technologies Technology Category Number of Observations A percent or uoservations witn TTHM Peaks Above 60|jg/L C 75 ug/L D 80|jg/L E 100|jg/L F percent or uoservations witn HAAS Peaks Above 45 ug/L I 60 ug/L J 75 ug/L K Stage 2 Compliance Based on a 20 Percent Safety Margin CLM only Adv. tech with CLM Adv. tech w/o CLM All plants 886 211 66 1,163 8.4% 2.4% 1.5% 6.9% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.1% 0.5% 7.6% 3.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Stage 2 Compliance Based on a 25 Percent Safety Margin CLM only Adv. tech with CLM Adv. tech w/o CLM All plants 829 211 50 1,090 5.7% 2.4% 0.0% 4.8% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% 0.5% 0.0% 2.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Notes: Source: Advanced technologies include chlorine dioxide,ozone, GAC, and membranes. Advanced technologies DO NOT consider enhanced coagulation or enhanced softening. The 25 percent safety margin results include ground water systems. ICR database (USEPA 2000h), analysis of 311 screened ICR surface and ground water plants. Exhibit G.7b Frequency of Occurrence of Three-Quarter Averages Greater than 75 ug/L for ICR Surface and Ground Water Plants Using Chloramines and/or Advanced Treatment Technologies Technology Category Number of Terms A TTHM Pregnancy Means > 75 ug/L B Compliance Based on a 20% SM CLM only Adv. tech with CLM Adv. tech w/o CLM All plants 788 193 43 1,024 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Compliance Based on a 25% SM CLM only Adv. tech with CLM Adv. tech w/o CLM All plants 745 193 27 965 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Notes: Source: Advanced technologies include chlorine dioxide,ozone, GAC, and membranes. Advanced technologies DO NOT consider enhanced coagulation or enhanced softening. The 25 percent safety margin results include ground water systems. ICR database (USEPA 2000h), analysis of 311 screened ICR surface and ground water plants. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR G-13 December 2005 ------- Exhibit G.8a Predicted Percent of Distribution System Sampling Observations with Peaks for Pre-Stage 1, Pre-Stage 2, and Post-Stage 2 Conditions TTHM Study Level Evaluated 60 ug/L 75 ug/L 80 ug/L 100 ug/L Pre-Stage 1 Conditions Number of Observations Evaluated A 4,482 4,482 4,482 4,482 Number of Observations with Peaks B 715 399 336 141 Percent of Observations with Peaks C = B/A 16.0% 8.9% 7.5% 3.1% Pre-Stage 2 Conditions Number of Observations Evaluated D 4,482 4,482 4,482 4,482 Number of Observations with Peaks E 377 125 91 22 Percent of Observations with Peaks F= E/D 8.4% 2.8% 2.0% 0.5% Post-Stage 2 Conditions Number of Observations Evaluated G 4,482 4,482 4,482 4,482 Number of Observations with Peaks H 246 42 23 4 Percent of Observations with Peaks l = H/G 5.5% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% Sources: (A), (D), and (G) are the number of distribution system observations evaluated for 311 screened ICR surface and ground water plants. (B), (E), and (H) are number of observations over the TTHM study level as derived in Exhibits 5.25. Exhibit G.8b Predicted Percent of Distribution System Three-Quarter Averages Greater than 75 ug/L for Pre-Stage 1, Pre-Stage 2, and Post-Stage 2 Conditions Over Pregnancy Term (3- Quarters) 75 ug/L Pre-Stage 1 Conditions Number of Pregnancy Evaluated A 3,679 Number of Pregnancy Terms Greater than TTHM Mean B 222 Percent of Pregnancy Terms Greater than TTHM Mean C = B/A 6.0% Pre-Stage 2 Conditions Number of Pregnancy Evaluated D 3,679 Number of Pregnancy Terms Greater than TTHM Mean E 28 Percent of Pregnancy Terms Greater than TTHM Mean F= E/D 0.8% Post -Stage 2 Conditions Number of Pregnancy Evaluated G 3,679 Number of Pregnancy Terms Greater than TTHM Mean H 0 Percent of Pregnancy Terms Greater than TTHM Mean l = H/G 0.0% Sources: (A), (D), and (G) are the number of distribution system pregnancy terms evaluated for 311 screened ICR surface and ground water plants. (B), (E), and (H) are number of pregnancy terms with a TTHM mean greater than 75 ug/L. G.3.2 Derivation of Fetal Losses Avoided based on Waller et al. (2001) Step 1: Estimate the baseline number of fetal losses (pre-Stage 1 conditions) attributable to exposure to peak DBFs by multiplying the PAR value by the total number of fetal losses in the U.S. per year (983,000 from Ventura et al. 2000): 1.9% PAR x 983,000 = 18,677 Step 2: Estimate the percent of population exposed to peaks for Pre-Stage 1, Pre-Stage 2 and Post-Stage 2 conditions (derived in Section G.3.1). Results for a TTHM study level of 80 |J,g/L are shown in Exhibit G.9. Step 3: Estimate the fetal losses remaining for Pre-Stage 2 conditions. First, estimate the fetal losses avoided by the Stage 1 DBPR by multiplying the Pre-Stage 1 cases by the percent reduction in peak DBP exposure as a result of the Stage 1 DBPR (shown in Exhibit G.9): 18,677x [7.5% - 2.0%]/7.5% = 13,696 Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR G-14 December 2005 ------- Subtract the fetal losses avoided as a result of the Stage 1 DBPR from the pre- Stage 1 baseline number of fetal losses attributable to DBFs to produce the fetal losses remaining that are attributable to DBFs for Pre-Stage 2 conditions: 18,677- 13,696 = 4,981 Step 4: Calculate the fetal losses avoided as a result of the Stage 2 DBPR. Similarly to Step 3, multiply the fetal losses remaining after the Stage 1 DBPR by the percent reduction in peak DBP exposure as a result of the Stage 2 DBPR (shown in Exhibit G.9): 4,981x[2.0% - 0.5%]/2.0% = 3,735 Exhibit G.9 Exposure to Peak TTHM Levels (>80 • g/L) Based on ICR Data Peaks / Observations Prevalence of Exposure (Peaks / Observations) Pre-Stage 1 336/4,482 7.5% Pre-Stage 2 (Post-Stage 1) 91/4,482 2.0% Post-Stage 21 23/4,482 0.5% Source: Exhibit G.8a Note: 1Data is based on a 20 percent safety margin in the compliance forecast G.4 Summary of Assumptions and Uncertainties There are a number of uncertainties and assumptions associated with calculating PAR and deriving the estimate of fetal losses that could be attributable to DBP exposure. These include the following: • DBFs may not be the causative agent for these fetal losses. • The PAR estimates may not have captured the true PAR value since they are based on crude relative risk estimates rather than relative risk estimates adjusted for confounding. By using TTHM exposure estimates as a surrogate for exposure to chlorinated DBFs, EPA may not be capturing potential risks associated with individual THMs or other DBFs. Using THMs as a surrogate may either over- or under-represent the risk. The annual incidence for all fetal losses (n=983,000) was used to represent both spontaneous abortion and stillbirth because there is insufficient data to distinguish the number of miscarriages versus the number of stillbirths per year. TTHM occurrence for ICR plants evaluated are assumed to represent national occurrence data. • Pregnancies are assumed to occur at equal rates throughout the year. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR G-15 December 2005 ------- The methodology for measuring exposure may not be the relevant exposure estimate. These assumptions and uncertainties are not all specific to this analysis; they would be true for many environmental epidemiological studies and population attributable risk calculations. There are other uncertainties and assumptions associated with calculating the reduction in potential fetal losses that could be attributable to the Stage 2 DBPR. To translate DBF occurrence to DBF exposure, two assumptions were used: • For the studies that were based on first trimester exposure, each observation at an ICR plant- location (taken at any of the following locations: Distribution System Equivalent Sample Point [DSE], Average Sample Point Number 1 [AVG1], Average Sample Point Number 2 [AVG2], and Distribution System Maximum Sample Point [DS Maximum]) was assumed to represent an equal portion of the exposures to the pregnant population. Similarly, running nine-month averages of TTHM concentrations from the ICR plant data were assumed to represent exposure to pregnant women in the epidemiological study based on nine months of exposure (King et al. 2000). • Peak DBP occurrence data for 311 large ICR plants evaluated are representative of DBP occurrence for all water treatment plant sizes. Section 6.3.3.2 provides an assessment of the validity and impact of these assumptions. Because DBP concentrations can be highly variable in distribution systems, it is possible that the exposure analysis in Section 6.3.3.2 does not capture the true variability in exposure to elevated DBP levels. Uncertainties with interpretation of the ICR data for the purposes of this exposure assessment include the following: • The extent to which small system occurrence is represented • Year to year variability of DBP occurrence data that might be affected by changes in source water quality (e.g., drought years versus non-drought years) may not be captured by year of ICR data used • The extent to which each ICR measurement at sampling points represents equal fractions of the population served • The extent to which ICR sampling locations represent compliance monitoring locations when trying to estimate reductions in exposure resulting from compliance with Stage 1 and Stage 2 DBPRs. Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR G-16 December 2005 ------- Appendix H National Costs for Non-Treatment-Related Rule Activities ------- ------- Appendix H National Costs for Non-Treatment-Related Rule Activities This appendix presents calculation summaries and cost tables for activities under the Stage 2 Disinfectants and Disinfection Byproducts Rule (DBPR) associated with rule implementation, Initial Distribution System Evaluations (IDSEs), Stage 2 DBPR monitoring plans, additional routine monitoring, and operational evaluations. It supports the discussion of these rule activities in Chapter 7. For systems, each activity is described separately in sections H.2 through H.6. A summary of all non-treatment activities and costs for systems is presented in H.7. State/Primacy Agency activities are described in section H.8. Each cost summary presented in this appendix details the labor hours and corresponding labor costs for a given activity. The derivation of the public water system (PWS) and State labor rates used for each activity is discussed in further detail in Chapter 7 (section 7.2). H.I Derivation of the Stage 2 Monitoring Baseline The Stage 2 DBPR monitoring requirements (both IDSE and compliance monitoring) are based on 8 surface water and 5 ground water population size categories. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) believes these to be more appropriate for specifying the numbers of samples per system than the standard nine system size categories that are used to generate treatment costs in this Economic Analysis (EA). Thus, a separate Stage 2 monitoring baseline for systems is needed. The final Stage 2 DBPR monitoring baseline, as presented in Column K in Exhibit H. 1, is derived as described below. Exhibit H.I begins with the total number of systems according to the monitoring size categories. The data is obtained from the 2003 4th quarter Safe Drinking Water Information System (SDWIS) frozen database (USEPA 2003t), as explained in section 3.4 of this EA. Systems are categorized by source and system type as well as by purchasing and nonpurchasing systems. The purchasing or nonpurchasing designation is important because systems that purchase all their water may not have monitored for the Stage 1 DBPR, so they may not have the data available to take advantage of some IDSE options such as 40/30 certification or very small system waivers (see section 7.3 of this EA). The purchased designation in SDWIS, however, includes systems that treat their own water as well as purchase some of their water from another system. These producing systems would be required to monitor for the Stage 1 DBPR and so should be included with the nonpurchasing systems for determining which monitoring options are available to them. To estimate inputs for these types of systems separately, estimates of "100% purchasing" and "Producing" systems are needed. To determine the percent of purchasing systems in SDWIS that purchase 100 percent of their water, EPA examined SDWIS purchasing system inventory data. As explained in Chapter 3 of this EA, in SDWIS and the Baseline Handbook (USEPA 200Ic), systems are assigned a source type using the following hierarchy, in descending order: Surface water1, Purchased Surface water, Ground Water, and Purchased Ground Water. The presence of the first source in this list determines the source assignment 1 For the purposes of this EA, systems supplying ground water under the influence of surface water (GWUDI) are included with surface water systems. EPA also refers to the grouping of surface water and GWUDI systems as "subpart H" systems in the Stage 2 DBPR rule language. Surface water and GWUDI systems are grouped together because they fall under the same requirements in the Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA) regulations. Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR H-l December 2005 ------- for that system. As a result, all purchasing ground water community water systems (CWSs) and nontransient noncommunity water systems (NTNCWSs) are, by SDWIS definition, 100 percent purchasing systems. Unlike purchasing ground water systems, purchasing surface water systems may have non- purchasing supplies. To determine how many purchasing surface water CWSs buy 100 percent of their water, EPA reviewed the results of the system linking exercise presented in section 3.4.2.2 of this EA. As explained in that section, the "linked" surface water system inventory was created by adding the population of 100 percent purchasing systems to their sellers and removing those systems from the inventory. A system was not "linked" to its seller if it had its own treatment plant or bought water from a system of a different type (e.g., a CWS buying water from a NTNCWS). Thus, remaining unlinked purchasing surface water systems (shown in Exhibit 3.2 of this EA, columns A and B) represent either systems that purchase finished water and have their own source, systems that buy from a different system type (e.g., a purchasing surface water plant that has its own ground water wells), or systems with missing seller information. In other words, those purchasing surface water systems that were able to be linked represents the minimum number of 100 percent purchasing systems. Using the percentage of purchasing systems that could be linked to estimate 100 percent purchasing systems may create a bias in the number of estimated 100 percent purchasing systems, but the error introduced is expected to be minimal since the number of remaining unlinked surface water CWSs is small. From Exhibits 3.2 and 3.3 of this EA, the total number SDWIS purchasing surface water CWSs that could be linked is 5,124 (4130+994), and the percent of the total is 94 [51247(4130+994+232+83)]. Note that this calculation was not performed for each Stage 2 DBPR monitoring size category because inventory data in Chapter 3 is organized according to the standard nine size categories (not the Stage 2 DBPR monitoring categories). The percentage of all purchasing surface water systems that could be linked (94 percent) was used in Exhibit H.I to estimate the baseline number of purchasing surface water CWSs that buy 100 percent of their water (see column D). A large portion of NTNCWSs could not be linked because they purchase water from different system types (in many cases, a NTNCWS purchases water from a CWS and was therefore, not linked). Therefore, a different methodology was used to estimate the percent of purchasing surface water NTNCWS that buy 100 percent of their water. All NTNCWSs are assumed to have just one entry point per system (as explained in section 3.4.2.2, these systems are most often a single building or located in a small area). Following this logic, a purchasing surface water NTNCWS is unlikely to have a second treated source—all are assumed to be 100 percent purchasing systems. Only systems that disinfect or deliver disinfected water will be required to meet the requirements of the Stage 2 DBPR. Therefore, to determine the appropriate baseline for nontreatment costs, the number of disinfecting systems is determined. As with the treatment plant baseline, all surface water systems are assumed to be disinfecting. The percent of disinfecting ground water systems was obtained from the Third Edition of the Baseline Handbook, which is derived from the 1995 Community Water Systems Survey (CWSS). Column H of Exhibit H. 1 displays the percentage disinfecting. Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR H-2 December 2005 ------- Exhibit H.1 Baseline Number of Disinfecting Systems by Monitoring Size Categories Size Category Number of Systems Purchased A Nonpurchased Total B C Percent of Purchased Systems that Purchase 100% of Their Water D Surface Water and Mixed CWSs <500 500-3,300 3,301-9,999 10,000-49,999 50,000-249,999 250,000-999,999 1,000,000-4,999,999 >5 M National Totals 2,191 2,531 1,001 795 188 9 - - 6,715 1,106 1,527 1,041 978 346 72 17 1 5,088 3,297 4,058 2,042 1,773 534 81 17 1 11,803 94.00% 94.00% 94.00% 94.00% 94.00% 94.00% 94.00% 94.00% Disinfecting Ground Water Only CWSs <500 500-9,999 10,000-99,999 100,000-499,999 > 500,000 National Totals 1,127 976 41 1 - 2,145 25,501 12,390 1,381 61 6 39,339 26,628 13,366 1,422 62 6 41,484 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% Surface Water and Mixed NTNCWSs <500 500-3,300 3,301-9,999 10,000-49,999 50,000-249,999 250,000-999,999 1,000,000-4,999,999 >5 M National Totals 126 55 11 4 1 - - - 197 422 144 13 1 - - - - 580 548 199 24 5 1 - - - 777 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% Disinfecting Ground Water Only NTNCWSs <500 500-9,999 10,000-99,999 100,000-499,999 > 500,000 National Totals Grand Totals 55 25 3 83 9,140 15,882 2,933 9 1 18,825 63,832 15,937 2,958 12 1 18,908 72,972 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% Number of Systems 100% Purchasing E = A*D 2,060 2,379 941 747 177 8 0 0 6,312 1,127 976 41 1 0 2,145 126 55 11 4 1 0 0 0 197 55 25 3 0 0 83 8,737 Producing F = C-E 1,237 1,679 1,101 1,026 357 73 17 1 5,491 25,501 12,390 1,381 61 6 39,339 422 144 13 1 0 0 0 0 580 15,882 2,933 9 1 0 18,825 64,235 Total G = E + F 3,297 4,058 2,042 1,773 534 81 17 1 11,803 26,628 13,366 1,422 62 6 41,484 548 199 24 5 1 0 0 0 777 15,937 2,958 12 1 0 18,908 72,972 Percent Disinfecting H 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 66.68% 82.67% 95.48% 96.40% 98.19% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 29.00% 29.00% 29.00% 29.00% 29.00% Number of Disinfecting Systems 100% Purchasing l = E*H 2,060 2,379 941 747 177 8 0 0 6,312 752 807 39 1 0 1,598 126 55 11 4 1 0 0 0 197 16 7 1 0 0 24 8,132 Producing J = F*H 1,237 1,679 1,101 1,026 357 73 17 1 5,491 17,005 10,243 1,319 59 6 28,631 422 144 13 1 0 0 0 0 580 4,606 851 3 0 0 5,459 40,161 Total K = I+J 3,297 4,058 2,042 1,773 534 81 17 1 11,803 17,756 11,050 1,358 60 6 30,229 548 199 24 5 1 0 0 0 777 4,622 858 3 0 0 5,483 48,293 Sources: (A), (B) 2003 4th quarter SDWIS frozen database (USEPA 2003t). (D) Percentage of purchased systems that are 100% purchasing is estimated from SDWIS data (H) Percent disinfecting is estimated from the Third Edition of the Baseline Handbook (Table B1.3.3) originally derived from the 1995 CWSS. Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR H-3 December 2005 ------- H.2 Rule Implementation Activities for Systems Exhibit H.2 presents the costs and burden2 for systems to perform implementation activities associated with the Stage 2 DBPR. These costs represent the labor hours incurred by PWSs to read the appropriate Stage 2 DBPR documents and train staff in their requirements. All systems subject to the Stage 2 DBPR are expected to undertake these implementation activities. Exhibit H.2 presents estimates of implementation hours and costs by system type, system size, and source water type. Burden means the total time, effort, or resources expended by persons to generate, maintain, retain, disclose, or provide information to or for a federal agency. This includes the time needed to review instructions; adjust the existing ways to comply with any previously applicable instructions and requirements; train personnel to be able to respond to the collection of information; search data sources; complete and review the collection of information; and transmit or otherwise disclose the information. Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR H-4 December 2005 ------- Exhibit H.2 Rule Implementation Burden and Costs for Systems Size Category Total Number of Systems A Read Hours per PWS B Train Hours per PWS C Cost per Labor Hour D Total Cost E = A*(B+C)*D Total Burden (Hours) F = A*(B+C) Total Burden (FTEs) G = F/2,080 Surface Water and Mixed CWSs <500 500-3,300 3,301-9,999 10,000-49,999 50,000-249,999 250,000-999,999 1,000,000-4,999,999 >5M National Totals 3,297 4,058 2,042 1,773 534 81 17 1 11,803 8 8 8 20 20 20 20 20 2 2 2 2 2 4 4 4 $ 22.55 $ 24.74 $ 30.51 $ 31 .08 $ 32.64 $ 35.25 $ 35.25 $ 35.25 $ 743,375 $ 1 ,003,949 $ 623,055 $ 1,212,306 $ 383,467 $ 68,522 $ 14,381 $ 846 $ 4,049,902 32,970 40,580 20,420 39,006 11,748 1,944 408 24 147,100 15.85 19.51 9.82 18.75 5.65 0.93 0.20 0.01 70.72 Disinfecting Ground Water Only CWSs <500 500-9,999 10,000-99,999 100,000-499,999 > 500,000 National Totals 17,756 1 1 ,050 1,358 60 6 30,229 8 8 20 20 20 1 1 1 1 1 $ 22.35 $ 24.86 $ 31 .08 $ 35.25 $ 35.25 $ 3,572,101 $ 2,472,179 $ 886,174 $ 44,241 $ 4,361 $ 6,979,054 159,807 99,446 28,513 1,255 124 289,145 76.83 47.81 13.71 0.60 0.06 139.01 Surface Water and Mixed NTNCWSs <500 500-3,300 3,301-9,999 10,000-49,999 50,000-249,999 250,000-999,999 1,000,000-4,999,999 >5M National Totals 548 199 24 5 1 - - - 777 8 8 8 20 20 20 20 20 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 $ 22.39 $ 24.74 $ 30.51 $ 31 .08 $ 35.25 N/A N/A N/A $ 110,450 $ 44,309 $ 6,591 $ 3,263 $ 740 $ $ $ $ 165,353 4,932 1,791 216 105 21 - - - 7,065 2.37 0.86 0.10 0.05 0.01 - - - 3.40 Disinfecting Ground Water Only NTNCWSs <500 500-9,999 10,000-99,999 100,000-499,999 500,000-1 ,499,999 National Totals Grand Totals 4,622 858 3 0.3 - 5,483 48,293 8 8 20 20 20 1 1 1 1 1 $ 22.20 $ 24.76 $ 31 .08 $ 35.25 N/A $ 923,423 $ 191,118 $ 2,271 $ 215 $ $ 1,117,027 $ 12,311,336 41 ,596 7,720 73 6 - 49,395 492,705 20.00 3.71 0.04 0.00 - 23.75 236.88 Notes: Detail may not add due to independent rounding. 1 FTE=2,080 hours (40 hours/week; 52 weeks/year). Sources: (A) Number of disinfecting systems (column K) from Exhibit H.1. (B and C) Hours for reading the rule and training appropriate personel are estimated based on EPA experience implementing previous regulations. (D) Labor rates from the Labor Costs for National Drinking Water Rules (USEPA, 2003s). An 80:20 split between technical and managerial labor rates was assumed, except for systems serving 500 or fewer people, for which only a technical rate was applied. Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR H-5 December 2005 ------- H.3 IDSE Activities for Systems The purpose of the IDSE is to aid PWSs in identifying sample locations for Stage 2 compliance monitoring that represent distribution system sites with high TTHM and HAAS levels. Some systems are not subject to IDSE requirements or may receive waivers. The first step in estimating costs for the IDSE is to categorize the systems into one of the five IDSE options listed below. Systems Performing the IDSE: Systems conducting standard monitoring Systems using system specific studies (SSS) Systems Not Performing the IDSE: • All NTNCWSs serving fewer than 10,000 people. • Systems serving fewer than 500 people that receive a very small system waiver. • Systems eligible for the 40/30 certification. Costs and burden associated with IDSE activities differ depending on whether or not the system performs the IDSE and, if so, which option a system chooses. All systems performing the IDSE are expected to incur some costs, as are those that are eligible for the 40/30 certification. Section H.3.1 describes the assumptions for allocating systems to the five categories. Section H.3.2 provides cost estimates for those systems performing the IDSE (Standard Monitoring or SSS option). Section H.3.3 provides the rationale and, if appropriate, cost estimates for systems not performing the IDSE (NTNCWSs serving < 10,000; systems serving < 500 that receive a waiver; and systems that qualify for the 40/30 certification). H.3.1 Categorization of Systems Exhibits H.3a and H.3b summarize the percentages and estimated number of systems that will conduct each IDSE activity for 100 percent purchasing and producing systems, respectively. The percentages associated with each IDSE activity, listed in columns B-D of these exhibits, have been derived for the total population served in each size category, but are applied to the number of systems in a size category sequentially. For example, the very small system waiver is applied to the total number of systems (3,297); then the percentage of systems qualifying for the 40/30 certification is applied to the remaining systems; finally, the percentage of systems conducting an SSS is applied to the systems that cannot be granted either the waiver or certification. The assumptions underlying the percentages are discussed in detail in the remainder of this section. The number of systems in the IDSE categories that are expected to incur system costs (standard monitoring, SSS, and 40/30 certification) are presented in the last three columns of these exhibits. NTNCWSs Serving < JO, 000 People None of the NTNCWSs serving fewer than 10,000 people are subject to the IDSE requirements. The exhibits in this appendix note "N/A" for these NTNCWS population categories. Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR H-6 December 2005 ------- Exhibit H.3a Percent and Number of 100 Percent Purchasing Systems in Each IDSE Category Size Category Total Number of 100% Purchasing Systems A Percentage Receiving a Very Small System Waiver B Percentage Having Concentrations Less than or Equal to 40/30 C Percentage Using Studies D Systems Conducting IDSE Standard Monitoring E=A*(1-B)-F- G Systems Receiving the 40/30 Certification F=Round [A*(1-B)*C] Systems Using Studies G=Round [A*(1-B)*(1- C)*D] Surface Water and Mixed CWSs <500 500-3,300 3,301-9,999 10,000-49,999 50,000-249,999 250,000-999,999 1 ,000,000-4,999,999 >5M National Totals 2,060 2,379 941 747 177 8 - - 6,312 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 0% 0% 0% 0% 5% 10% 10% 10% 2,060 2,379 941 642 144 6 - - 6,172 - - - 105 25 1 - - 131 - - - - 8 1 - - 9 Disinfecting Ground Water Only CWSs <500 500-9,999 10,000-99,999 100,000-499,999 > 500,000 National Totals 752 807 39 1 - 1,598 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 82% 66% 79% 0% 0% 0% 10% 10% 752 807 7 - - 1,566 - - 32 1 - 33 - - - - - 0 Surface Water and Mixed NTNCWSs <500 500-3,300 3,301-9,999 10,000-49,999 50,000-249,999 250,000-999,999 1 ,000,000-4,999,999 >5M National Totals 126 55 11 4 1 - - - 197 N/A N/A N/A 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% N/A N/A N/A 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% N/A N/A N/A 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% N/A N/A N/A 3 1 - - - 4 N/A N/A N/A 1 - - - - 1 N/A N/A N/A - - - - - 0 Disinfecting Ground Water Only NTNCWSs <500 500-9,999 10,000-99,999 100,000-499,999 > 500,000 National Totals Grand Totals 16 7 1 - - 24 8,132 N/A N/A 0% 0% 0% N/A N/A 92% 92% 92% N/A N/A 0% 0% 0% N/A N/A - - - 0 7,742 N/A N/A 1 - - 1 166 N/A N/A - - - 0 9 Notes: Detail may not add due to independent rounding. Results in columns F and G are rounded to whole systems. Column C is percent of systems with TTHM concentrations less than or equal to 40 ug/L and HAAS concentrations less than or equal to 30 ug/L for Stage 1 DBPR monitoring. Sources: (A) Number of disinfecting 100% purchasing systems (Exhibit H.1, column I). (B)-(C) 100% purchasing systems may not have DBP data with which to qualify for the waiver or certification. As a conservative assumption, 0% is used. (D) Percentage of systems able to use historical data based on expert opinion. Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR H-7 December 2005 ------- Exhibit H.3b Percent and Number of Producing Systems in Each IDSE Category Size Category Total Number of Producing Systems A Percentage Receiving a Very Small System Waiver B Percentage Having Concentrations Less than or Equal to 40/30 C Percentage Using Studies D Systems Conducting IDSE Standard Monitoring E=A*(1-B)-F-G Systems Receiving the 40/30 Certification F=Round [A*(1-B)*C] Systems Using Studies G=Round C)*D] Surface Water and Mixed CWSs <500 500-3,300 3,301-9,999 10,000-49,999 50,000-249,999 250,000-999,999 1 ,000,000-4,999,999 >5M National Totals 1,237 1,679 1,101 1,026 357 73 17 1 5,491 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 0% 0% 0% 0% 5% 10% 10% 10% - 1,444 947 882 292 57 14 1 3,636 - 235 154 144 50 10 2 - 595 - - - - 15 6 1 - 22 Disinfecting Ground Water Only CWSs <500 500-9,999 10,000-99,999 100,000-499,999 > 500,000 National Totals 17,005 10,243 1,319 59 6 28,631 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 89% 82% 66% 79% 0% 0% 0% 10% 10% - 1,149 233 18 1 1,400 - 9,094 1,086 39 5 10,224 - - - 2 - 2 Surface Water and Mixed NTNCWSs <500 500-3,300 3,301-9,999 10,000-49,999 50,000-249,999 250,000-999,999 1 ,000,000-4,999,999 >5M National Totals 422 144 13 1 - - - - 580 N/A N/A N/A 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% N/A N/A N/A 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% N/A N/A N/A 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% N/A N/A N/A 1 - - - - 1 N/A N/A N/A - - - - - 0 N/A N/A N/A - - - - - 0 Disinfecting Ground Water Only NTNCWSs <500 500-9,999 10,000-99,999 100,000-499,999 > 500,000 National Totals Grand Totals 4,606 851 3 0 - 5,459 40,161 N/A N/A 0% 0% 0% N/A N/A 92% 92% 92% N/A N/A 0% 0% 0% N/A N/A 1 0 - 1 5,038 N/A N/A 2 - - 2 10,821 N/A N/A - - - 0 24 Notes: Detail may not add due to independent rounding. Results in columns F and G are rounded to whole systems. Column C is percent of systems with TTHM concentrations less than or equal to 40 ug/L and HAAS concentrations less than or equal to 30 ug/L for Stage 1 DBPR monitoring. Sources: (A) Number of producing disinfecting systems (Exhibit H.1, column J). (B) The percentage of small systems to receive a very small system waiver is an assumption based on EPA experience with small systems. 100% purchasing systems may not have DBP data with which to qualify for small system waivers. As a conservative estimate 0% is assumed. (C) Percentage of systems with all data less than or equal to 40/30 for Surface Water and Mixed systems based on ICR and NRWA data. (D) Percentage of systems able to use historical data based on expert opinion. Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR H-8 December 2005 ------- Systems Receiving a Very Small System Waiver Systems serving fewer than 500 people that have conducted Stage 1 monitoring are eligible for a very small system waiver from the IDSE requirements. These systems must conduct IDSE monitoring or an SSS, however, if they have not monitored for Stage 1 or if the State directs them to do so. It is assumed that no small 100 percent purchasing systems are eligible for the very small system waiver. This is a conservative estimate, as some States may have already required these systems to monitor disinfection byproduct (DBFs). Because all systems with data will receive the waiver unless the State notifies them otherwise, it is assumed all producing systems will receive the very small system waiver. Although this may be a slight overestimate, it is believed that very few of these systems will be required to monitor by the State. Systems Receiving the 40/30 Certification To be eligible for the 40/30 certification, systems must certify to the State/Primacy Agency that each individual sample collected for the Stage 1 DBPR is no more than 40 micrograms per liter ((ig/L) for TTHM and 30 (ig/L for HAAS, and that there were no TTHM or HAAS monitoring violations during the same period. Small systems that purchase 100 percent of their water may not have the Stage 1 DBPR monitoring data needed in order to apply for a 40/30 certification. Although this is a conservative estimate, it is assumed that no small 100 percent purchasing systems can receive a 40/30 certification. EPA used various data sources to estimate the percentage of producing systems that could potentially qualify for the 40/30 certification. Based on analysis of the last 4 quarters of Information Collection Rule (ICR) data3, it was estimated that 14 percent of large and medium surface water systems could show that all compliance monitoring data were less than or equal to 40 (ig/L for TTHM and 30 (ig/L for HAAS. While this may be an underestimate because it is based on pre-Stage 1 data, few additional systems will make changes to meet Stage 1 requirements that will result in all of their samples being less than or equal to 40/30. In the absence of other information, however, EPA believes that 14 percent is the best estimate of large and medium surface water systems that could meet the 40/30 certification requirements. For small surface water systems, analysis of National Rural Water Association (NRWA) Winter and Summer data indicates that 12 percent could quality for the 40/30 certification. However, small systems have a later start date for the IDSE, and some systems will most likely make treatment technology changes to meet the Stage 1 DBPR before the start of the IDSE. Therefore, the percent with all compliance data less than or equal to 40/30 for small systems is estimated to be the same as for large systems (i.e., 14 percent). EPA assumed that no very small systems will qualify for the 40/30 certification since very small systems with data will receive a very small system waiver instead. For all ground water systems, ICR data were used to estimate the percentage that could qualify for the 40/30 certification. Approximately 24 percent of ICR ground water systems are located in Florida where total organic carbon (TOC) levels (and consequently DBP levels) are high. Appendix B describes the analysis of Florida and non-Florida ICR data, which shows that 18 percent of Florida systems have all TTHM and HAAS concentrations less than or equal to 40/30 respectively and 92 percent of non-Florida systems have all concentrations less than or equal to 40/30. These percentages were applied to the Florida 3At least 3 of 4 quarters must have TTHM and HAAS data for at least 3 of 4 distribution system locations (TTHM and HAA5 data do not have to be present at the same location, however) for a plant to be included in this analysis. Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR H-9 December 2005 ------- and non-Florida systems in each system size category, respectively to produce the percent estimates in column C of Exhibit H.3a and H.3b. Conducting an SSS An SSS based on hydraulic modeling or existing monitoring data can be used instead of standard monitoring. EPA estimates that 10 percent of the surface water and disinfecting ground water systems serving more than 100,000 people and 5 percent of surface water systems serving 50,000 to 100,000 people will complete an SSS in lieu of monitoring. EPA assumed that surface water systems serving fewer than 50,000 people and ground water systems serving fewer than 100,000 people will not have adequate historical data or models to meet the SSS requirements. Conducting Standard Monitoring All systems that do not receive a waiver, do not quality for the 40/30 certification, or cannot use an SSS are required to perform standard monitoring. Standard monitoring involves selecting specific types of sample sites in the distribution system (e.g., maximum TTHM sites, sites near the entry point) and monitoring at those sites for 1 year. The number and type of required samples are based on system size, source water type, and residual disinfectant type. The system must prepare a report summarizing the results of the standard monitoring and justifying selection of Stage 2 compliance monitoring sites. H.3.2 Costs for Systems Performing the IDSE Systems Conducting Standard Monitoring Standard monitoring consists of three activities—preparing an IDSE monitoring plan, monitoring, and reporting. Costs associated with preparing the IDSE monitoring plan result from the labor effort required to evaluate the distribution system, select the sites, and layout where and when the system will collect and analyze samples. Labor hours are estimated on a per-system basis and vary by system size, with the assumption that larger systems need more time to select sites. The labor hour estimates for monitoring plan preparation are based on EPA's experience with other rules. Monitoring costs include labor for sample collection and laboratory costs for sample analysis. These costs are estimated from the number of samples required. EPA estimates that systems will spend an average of 1 hour to collect one sample. Laboratory costs include $200 for analysis of TTHM and HAA5 paired samples. A shipping cost of $40 for systems serving fewer than 10,000 is included to reflect that these systems are unlikely to have in-house laboratory facilities and are less likely to be able to take advantage of bulk rate discounts. For systems serving 10,000 or more people, a shipping cost of $10 is added to reflect that many of them have in-house laboratories and can take advantage of bulk rates. These costs represent averages obtained from the ICR (see Chapter 7, section 7.1.1 for more information on laboratory cost assumptions). Costs per sample for ground and surface water plants are not expected to differ substantially. As noted in section H. 1, the total number of sampling sites and frequency of sampling for systems is a function of system size (population served) and source water type, not the number of plants. Larger systems must sample at more sites and more frequently than smaller ones, which typically have shorter and less complex distribution systems. Surface water sources generally have higher DBP precursor levels than ground water sources; therefore, they have a greater potential for high DBP occurrence. Reporting costs reflect the labor required for systems to prepare and submit a report to their State/Primacy Agency on IDSE results and their proposed Stage 2 DBPR compliance monitoring sites. Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR H-10 December 2005 ------- These costs are estimated on a per system basis for all systems. The reporting labor rate is the same rate used for preparation of the IDSE monitoring plan. Exhibit H.4 shows the calculations and estimated costs and burden for systems expected to monitor for the IDSE. Systems Performing an SSS Cost estimates for systems conducting an SSS consist of preparing a study plan, conducting the study, and reporting results. The labor hours required for the study plan and report are similar to the hours required for the standard monitoring plan and report for systems performing the standard monitoring. A uniform value of 20 hours was used for all large systems, as it is the average of the reporting costs in the three largest size categories for systems doing an IDSE report for the standard monitoring. Conducting the SSS study was estimated to take 40 hours of labor. The estimate is based on EPA's best professional judgement and its experience with similar programs. Exhibit H.5 shows the calculations and estimated costs and burden for systems completing an SSS in lieu of standard monitoring to fulfill IDSE requirements. Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR H-ll December 2005 ------- Exhibit H.4 IDSE Costs for Systems Using Standard Monitoring Size Category Total Number of Systems that Monitor A Develop IDSE monitoring plan and report Preparation of IDSE Monitoring Plan B Preparation of IDSE Report C Reporting Cost per Labor Hour D Sampling Number of Dual Sample Sets per System E Hours per Sample F Sampling Cost per Labor Hour G Laboratory Cost per Sample H Total Cost =A*((B+C)*D+E*( F*G+H)) Total Burden (Hours) J=A*(B+C+ E'F) Total Burden (FTEs) K=J/2,080 Surface Water and Mixed CWSs <500 500-3,300 3,301-9,999 10,000-49,999 50,000-249,999 250,000-999,999 1,000,000-4,999,999 >5M National Totals 2,060 3,823 1,888 1,524 436 63 14 1 9,809 4 4 4 8 8 12 16 24 2 2 2 4 8 12 24 24 $ 22.55 $ 24.74 $ 30.51 $ 31.08 $ 32.64 $ 35.25 $ 35.25 $ 35.25 2 8 16 48 96 144 192 240 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 $ 22.55 $ 24.74 $ 25.34 $ 26.05 $ 28.00 $ 31.26 $ 31.26 $ 31.26 $ 240 $ 240 $ 240 $ 210 $ 210 $ 210 $ 210 $ 210 $ 1,360,071 $ 8,664,294 $ 8,361,031 $ 17,835,921 $ 10,189,487 $ 2,242,006 $ 668,246 $ 59,594 $ 49,380,649 16,476 53,522 41,536 91,440 48,832 10,584 3,248 288 265,926 7.9 25.7 20.0 44.0 23.5 5.1 1.6 0.1 127. 8 Disinfecting Ground Water Only CWSs <500 500-9,999 10,000-99,999 100,000-499,999 > 500,000 National Totals 752 1,956 240 18 1 2,966 4 4 8 12 16 2 2 8 12 24 $ 22.35 $ 24.86 $ 31.08 $ 35.25 $ 35.25 2 8 24 32 48 1 1 1 1 1 $ 22.35 $ 24.86 $ 26.05 $ 31.26 $ 31.26 $ 240 $ 240 $ 210 $ 210 $ 210 $ 495,114 $ 4,435,321 $ 1,477,430 $ 152,514 $ 11,576 $ 6,571,956 6,012 27,378 9,590 997 78 44,056 2.9 13.2 4.6 0.5 0.0 21.2 Surface Water and Mixed NTNCWSs t«a 500-3,350 3,301-8,899 10,000-49,999 50,000-249,999 250,000-999,999 1,000,000-4,999,999 >5M National Totals N/A N/A NIA 4 1 0 0 0 5 N/A N/A N/A 8 8 12 16 24 WA WA N/A 4 8 12 24 24 WA WA N/A $ 31.08 $ 35.25 N/A N/A N/A WA N/A N/A 48 96 144 192 240 WA WA N/A 1 1 1 1 1 NIA N/A Njk $ 26.05 $ 31.26 N/A N/A N/A N/A • NIA WA $ 210 $ 210 $ 210 $ 210 $ 210 N/A • NIA WA $ 46,813 $ 23,725 $ $ $ $ 70,538 N/A N/A N/A, 240 112 - - 352 WA N/A N/A 0.1 0.1 - - 0.2 Disinfecting Ground Water Only NTNCWSs <«IQ 500-9,988 10,000-99,999 100,000-499,999 > 500,000 National Totals Grand Totals N/A • N/A 1 0 0 1 12,780 N/A N/A 8 12 16 IWA WA 8 12 24 WA WA $ 31.08 $ 35.25 N/A WA ' N/A 24 32 48 WA WA 1 1 1 NIA N/A $ 26.05 $ 31.26 N/A N/A NIA $ 210 $ 210 $ 210 N/A NIA $ 3,759 $ 2,484 $ $ 6,243 $ 56,029,386 N/A N/A 24 16 41 310,375 N/A N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 149.2 Detail may not add due to independent rounding. Shaded areas represent systems that are not subject to IDSE requirements. 1 FTE=2,080 hours (40 hours/week; 52 weeks/year). (A) From Exhibits H.3a and H.3b, column E. (B and C) Labor hours for site selection and reporting based on expert opinion received during regulatory development process. (D)Site selection and reporting labor rates estimated based on labor rates from Labor Costs for National Drinking Water Rules (USEPA 2003s) . An 80:20 split between technical and managerial labor rates was assumed, except for systems serving 500 or fewer people, for which only a technical rate was applied. (E) Number of IDSE samples per system based on rule requirements for conducting IDSE monitoring. Column E in Exhibit 1.2. (Number of sites multiplied by frequency of samples (F) Labor hours per sample reflect EPA estimate. (G) Sampling labor rates estimated based on technical labor rates from the Labor Costs for National Drinking Water Rules (USEPA 2003s) . (H) Laboratory cost for TTHM and HAA5 analyses per sample based on costs incurred for the ICR. $10 Shipping is added for large systems as many large systems have in-house capacity and will not have to ship. $40 is added for small systems because of higher shipping charges and fewer samples (no bulk discounts). Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR H-ll December 2005 ------- Exhibit H.5 IDSE Costs for Systems Using SSSs Size Category Number of Systems Qualifying for SSS A Preparation of IDSE Study Plan B Conduct Study C Preparation of IDSE Study Report D Cost per Labor Hour E Total Cost F = A*(B+C+D)*E Total Burden (Hours) G = A*(B+C+D) Total Burden (FTEs) H = G/2,080 Surface Water and Mixed CWSs <500 500-3,300 3,301-9,999 10,000-49,999 50,000-249,999 250,000-999,999 1,000,000-4,999,999 >5M National Total - - 23 7 1 31 - - 20 20 20 - - 40 40 40 - - 20 20 20 - - $ 32.64 $ 35.25 $ 35.25 $ $ $ $ $ 60,060 $ 19,739 $ 2,820 $ $ 82,618 - - 1,840 560 80 2,480 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.88 0.27 0.04 0.00 1.19 Disinfecting Ground Water Only CWSs <500 500-9,999 10,000-99,999 100,000-499,999 > 500,000 National Total - - 2 2 - - 20 - - 40 - - 20 - - $ 35.25 $ $ $ $ 5,640 $ $ 5,640 - - 160 160 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.08 Surface Water and Mixed NTNCWSs 5*00 600-3,300 3if31-3i83i 10,000-49,999 50,000-249,999 250,000-999,999 1,000,000-4,999,999 >5M National Total JM/A / Nft / ,,WA - - - N/A' ,WA / N/A - - N/A' ,«A / N/A - - N/A ,MA / N/A, - - N/A N/A N|A - - N/A ,MA ,••' N/A. $ $ $ $ $ $ N/A ,MA ,••' N/A. - - - N/A ,WA ,-*' N/A. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Disinfecting Ground Water Only NTNCWSs $600 6003,988 10,000-99,999 100,000-499,999 > 500,000 National Total Grand Totals ,N/A / m - - 33 ,N/A / WA - JM/A / N/A - JM/A /' N/A - N/A ffA - JM/A ,-'"" N/A $ $ $ $ $ 88,258 JM/A ,•'*' N/A - - 2,640 N/A ,MA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.27 Notes: Detail may not add due to independent rounding. Shaded areas represent systems that are not subject to IDSE requirements. SSS stands for Systems using System Specific Studies. Sources: (A) Number of systems using studies to satisfy IDSE requirements from Exhibits H.3a and H.3b, column G. (B), (C), (D) Reporting hours required per system based on expert opinion. (E) Labor rates from Labor Costs for National Drinking Water Rules (USEPA, 2003s). An 80:20 split between technical and managerial labor rates was assumed, except for systems serving 500 or fewer people, for which only a technical rate was applied. Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR H-13 December 2005 ------- H.3.3 Costs for Systems Not Performing the IDSE As noted in the beginning of section H.3, there are three types of systems that do not have to perform the IDSE: • All NTNCWSs serving fewer than 10,000 people (they are not subject to IDSE requirements) • Systems receiving the very small system waiver • Systems qualifying for the 40/30 certification (all TTHM and HAAS compliance monitoring data must be less than or equal to 40/30 (ig/L, respectively) Since NTNCWSs serving fewer than 10,000 people are not subject to IDSE requirements, they bear no costs. EPA estimates a minimal burden for systems receiving a very small system waiver, given that they are automatically covered by the waiver if they have Stage 1 monitoring data unless the State requires otherwise. Therefore, this EA does not include costs for systems receiving the very small system waiver. Systems qualifying for the 40/30 certification are expected to bear a small cost for reviewing monitoring data and preparing a certification letter to send to the State. Cost calculations are shown in Exhibit H.7. For CWS systems serving fewer than 10,000 people, reporting hours for 40/30 certification reports were estimated to be one hour. For systems serving at least 10,000 people certification reports were estimated to be 2 hours. EPA also considers costs for those systems that receive the 40/30 certification and do not have to perform the IDSE, but must select additional Stage 2 sites compared to Stage 1 DBPR requirements. The number of those systems with additional sites is based on a comparison of Stage 2 population-based monitoring requirements to an analysis of Stage 1 plant-based requirements multiplied by the average number of plants per system. This analysis is shown in Section H.5. A minimal burden of one hour is estimated for very small systems, as only one additional site will be selected and the distribution systems are generally small. For larger systems the hours are estimated to be similar to the hours required to prepare the standard monitoring plan. Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR H-14 December 2005 ------- Exhibit H.6 IDSE Costs for Systems Receiving the 40/30 Certification Size Category Selecting Additional Sites Systems Receiving 40/30 Certification but Adding Stage 2 site(s) A Hours per System B Preparing IDSE Certification Number of Systems Receiving 40/30 Certification C Reporting Hours per System D Cost per Labor Hour E Total Cost F = (A*B+C*D)*E Total Burden (Hours) G = A*B+C*D Total Burden (FTEs) H = G/2,080 Surface Water and Mixed CWSs <500 500-3,300 3,301-9,999 10,000-49,999 50,000-249,999 250,000-999,999 1,000,000-4,999,999 >SM National Total 154 75 11 2 242 1 3 3 8 8 8 8 8 235 154 249 75 11 2 726 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 $ 22.55 $ 24.74 $ 30.51 $ 31.08 $ 32.64 $ 35.25 $ 35.25 $ 35.25 $ $ 5,814 $ 18,795 $ 15,478 $ 24,481 $ 3,877 $ 705 $ $ 69,150 235 616 498 750 110 20 2,229 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 Disinfecting Ground Water Only CWSs <500 500-9,999 10,000-99,999 100,000-499,999 > 500,000 National Total 9,094 1,118 10,212 1 3 8 8 8 9,094 1,118 40 5 10,257 1 1 2 2 2 $ 22.35 $ 24.86 $ 31.08 $ 35.25 $ 35.25 $ $ 904,287 $ 347,474 $ 2,820 $ 352 $ 1 ,254,934 36,376 11,180 80 10 47,646 17.5 5.4 0.0 0.0 22.9 Surface Water and Mixed NTNCWSs «5QQ 500-3,300 3,301 10,000-49,999 50,000-249,999 250,000-999,999 1,000,000-4,999,999 >5M National Total n» /NfA / NfA - NfA J*A Xt* 8 8 8 8 8 J*' /NfA / N/A 1 1 JJ/A /NfA / NfA 2 2 2 2 2 NfA J*A Xf«* $ 31.08 $ 35.25 N/A N/A N/A NfA JW Xt*A $ 62 $ $ $ $ $ 62 NfA J*A ,/J« 2 2 N/A J*A XP« 0.0 0.0 Disinfecting Ground Water Only NTNCWSs <5a> ,SOO-8,S9i 10,000-99,999 100,000-499,999 > 500,000 National Total Grand Totals N/A JS» 3 3 10,457 |I/A /f*A 8 8 8 Nl|. J« 3 3 10,987 N/4 J* 2 3 6 J*\ /N& $ 31.08 $ 35.25 N/A |I/A /N/A $ 932 $ $ $ 932 $ 1 ,325,079 J«\ /N^S 30 30 49,907 |I/A /N/A 0.0 0.0 24.0 Notes: Shaded areas represent systems that are not subject to IDSE requirements. Sources: (A) Number of systems less than or equal to 40/30 from Exhibit H.3a and H.3b (column F) for only those system size categories that are predicted to have additional routine monitoring from Stage 1 to Stage 2 (see Exhibit H.8a, column I). (B) Hours per system required to se ect new sites for Stage 2 based on expert opinion. (C) Number of systems that qualify for 40/30 certification from Exhibit H.3a and H.3b, column F. (D) Reporting hours are based on best professional judgement and experience with similar ru es. (E) Labor rates from Labor Costs for National Drinking Water Rules (USEPA, 2003s) . An 80:20 split between technical and managerial labor rates was assumed, except for systems serving 500 or fewer people, for which only a technical rate was applied. Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR H-15 December 2005 ------- H.4 Developing a Stage 2 Monitoring Plan This section presents the costs for systems to develop a monitoring plan for the Stage 2 DBPR. Prior to the beginning of compliance sampling, systems must prepare a monitoring plan describing how the system intends to comply with the monitoring requirements. The plan must contain the sites where the samples will be taken, based on data gathered in the IDSE and Stage 1 compliance monitoring, the month(s) in which samples will be taken, and other information. Surface water systems serving more than 3,300 people must submit their plans to the State. For systems that perform the IDSE (SSS or standard monitoring), most of the information in the monitoring plan is required in the IDSE report. Most of the work required for the monitoring plan will be consulting with and making modifications suggested by the State/Primacy Agency. Therefore the labor hours required for the monitoring plan will be less than those required for the IDSE report. EPA assumes that for the purposes of this EA, the monitoring plans will take half the time estimated for systems to complete the IDSE report. Very small systems obtaining waivers will not be required to submit a monitoring plan and therefore do not have a burden. Small NTNCWS which do not receive very small system waivers will need to update their Stage 1 monitoring plan. A minimal burden of two hours is assumed for this. Exhibit H.7 displays the burden and costs associated with monitoring plan preparation. Ground water systems that add chemical disinfection as a result of the Ground Water Rule (GWR) will have to prepare monitoring plans4. The GWR was proposed in 2000 but has not been finalized. Therefore, EPA used information from the impact analysis prepared for the proposed GWR EA (USEPA 2000g) and system inventory data from SDWIS to estimate the number of systems that will add disinfection as a result of the GWR Assumptions for labor hours for these systems are similar to the assumptions listed above for other systems subject to the Stage 2 DBPR. 4 EPA assumes that systems adding disinfection for the GWR will have to prepare a monitoring plan and conduct compliance monitoring. The IDSE requirement, however, will likely be completed before these systems add disinfection, so this EA does not include costs for newly disinfecting ground water systems to conduct an IDSE. Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR H-16 December 2005 ------- Exhibit H.7 Stage 2 Monitoring Plan Costs for Systems Size Category Number Systems Performing IDSE, SSS, or 40/30 Certification A Number of Systems Receiving Very Small System Waiver or Small NTNCWS B Systems Adding Disinfection for the GWR Preparing Monitoring C Hours to Prepare Stage 2 Monitoring Plan D Hours to Update Exisiting Stage 1 Monitoring Plan E Labor Cost F Total Cost G = F*((A+C)*D + B*E) Total Burden (hours) H = G/F Total Burden (FTEs) I = H/2080 Surface Water and Mixed CWSs <500 500-3,300 3,301-9,999 10,000-49,999 50,000-249,999 250,000-999,999 1,000,000-4,999,999 >5M National Totals 2,060 4,058 2,042 1,773 534 81 17 1 10,566 1,237 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,237 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 5 5 10 10 15 20 30 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 $ 22.55 $ 24.74 $ 25.34 $ 26.05 $ 28.00 $ 31.26 $ 31.26 $ 31.26 $ 232,182 $ 501,975 $ 258,721 $ 461,867 $ 149,527 $ 37,981 $ 10,628 $ 938 $ 1,653,819 10,298 20,290 10,210 17,730 5,340 1,215 340 30 65,453 4.95 9.75 4.91 8.52 2.57 0.58 0.16 0.01 31.47 Disinfecting Ground Water Only CWSs <500 500-9,999 10,000-99,999 100,000-499,999 > 500,000 National Totals 752 11,050 1,358 60 6 13,225 17,005 0 0 0 0 17,005 793 237 11 2 0 1,042 5 5 10 15 20 0 2 2 2 2 $ 22.35 $ 24.86 $ 26.05 $ 31.26 $ 31.26 $ 172,612 $ 1,402,853 $ 356,494 $ 28,822 $ 3,735 $ 1,964,515 7,722 56,431 13,685 922 119 78,880 3.71 27.13 6.58 0.44 0.06 37.92 Surface Water and Mixed NTNCWSs <500 500-3,300 3,301-9,999 10,000-49,999 50,000-249,999 250,000-999,999 1,000,000-4,999,999 >5M National Totals - 5 1 - - - 6 548 199 24 0 0 0 0 0 771 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 5 5 10 10 15 20 30 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 $ 22.39 $ 24.74 $ 25.34 $ 26.05 $ 31.26 N/A N/A N/A $ $ 9,847 $ 1,216 $ 1,303 $ 313 $ $ $ $ 12,678 0 398 48 50 10 0 0 0 506 0.00 0.19 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.24 Disinfecting Ground Water Only NTNCWSs <500 500-9,999 10,000-99,999 100,000-499,999 > 500,000 National Totals Grand Totals 3 0 - 4 23,800 4,622 858 0 0 0 5,480 24,493 1,241 268 1 0 0 1,510 2,552 5 5 10 15 20 0 2 2 2 2 $ 22.20 $ 24.76 $ 26.05 $ 31.26 N/A $ 137,760 $ 75,586 $ 1,247 $ 192 $ $ 214,785 $ 3,845,797 6,205 3,053 48 6 0 9,313 154,152 2.98 1.47 0.02 0.00 0.00 4.48 74.11 Notes: Detail may not add due to independent rounding. 1 FTE=2,080 hours (40 hours/week; 52 weeks/year). Sources: (A) Exhibit H.1 Column K minus systems receiving small system waivers from column B in this Exhibit. (B) From Exhibit H.3a and H.3b, colulmn A minus columns E, F, and G. (C) Best estimate based on proposed Ground Water Rule (D), (E) Labor hours based on a best professional judgement and experience with similar rules. (F) Labor rates from Labor Costs for National Drinking Water Rules (USEPA, 2003s). An 80:20 split between technical and managerial labor rates \ assumed, except for systems serving 500 or fewer people, for which only a technical rate was applied. Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR H-17 December 2005 ------- H.5 Additional Routine Monitoring Because systems already sample for the Stage 1 DBPR, costs for additional routine monitoring are determined by the change in the number of samples collected from the Stage 1 to the Stage 2 DBPR. The Stage 2 DBPR monitoring requirements are based only on population served and source water type. The Stage 1 DBPR requirements are based on number of treatment plants per system in addition to these characteristics. Depending on the number of plants in a given system, the number of Stage 2 compliance samples required per year can stay the same, decrease, or increase from Stage 1 requirements. For example, if a system has many plants, they must collect compliance samples for each plant under the Stage 1 DBPR. The sampling requirements for the Stage 2 DBPR, based on population served and not plants, will likely be lower than for Stage 1 for this system. Exhibit H.8 summarizes the estimated change in number of samples required and the associated cost. An explanation of this exhibit is provided in the following paragraphs. To compare plant-based Stage 1 to population-based Stage 2 monitoring requirements, an estimate of plants per system is needed for each of the monitoring size categories. Column B in Exhibit H.8a shows the mean number of plants per system for (1) surface water and all mixed systems, and (2) disinfecting ground water-only systems. This number is used to transform the system baseline to a plant baseline in order to calculate number of samples per system for Stage 1. The values are based on analysis of 2000 CWSS data, question 18.5 EPA used the 2000 CWSS instead of the 1995 CWSS because the mean number of plants per system is key in defining new population-based monitoring requirements. EPA believes that the additional analyses needed to derive new estimates using 2000 CWSS data were warranted in this case. (As shown in Chapter 3 of this EA, all other baseline analyses were performed with 1995 CWSS data.) Systems Using One Site to Represent Both High TTHM and HAAS Column F shows the number of Stage 2 DBPR routine samples required per system. For surface water systems serving 3,300 or fewer people and disinfecting ground water systems serving fewer than 500 people, one sample is required unless the TTHM and F£AA5 sites are at different locations in the distribution system. If this is the case, then the system must collect one TTHM sample at the high TTHM site, and one HAA5 sample at the high HAA5 site, which is equivalent to one dual sample. The only increase in burden is the extra sample collection time to visit two sites instead of one. (Note that for surface water systems serving 500 to 3,300 people, samples must be collected every 90 days, resulting in a total of 4 dual samples per system. Surface and ground water systems serving fewer than 500 people only have to collect one sample per year, resulting in one dual sample per system as shown in Exhibit H.8a). EPA assumes that systems that receive a very small system waiver (i.e., all producing systems, see Exhibit H.3b) will use one site for high TTHM and HAA5 at the same location. ICR data was used to estimate the percent of producing systems that need two monitoring sites (instead of one) to represent both high TTHM and high HAA5 concentrations. For CWSs, EPA evaluated data from the last four quarters6 of the ICR to estimate the percentage of systems that had their highest TTHM and HAA5 at 5 Systems were considered outliers if their flow data were incomplete or if they had more than 100 entry points, or if they lacked other data for question 18 and were excluded from the analysis. 6At least 3 of 4 quarters must have TTHM and HAAS data for at 1 HAAS data do not have to be present at the same location, however) for a plant to be included in this analysis. Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR H-18 December 2005 6At least 3 of 4 quarters must have TTHM and HAAS data for at least 3 of 4 distribution system locations (TTHM and ------- different locations7 and thus need to monitor at two sites. Results of this analysis show that approximately 51 percent of surface water and 44 percent of ground water plants have their high TTHM and HAAS sites at different locations. Therefore the total percent that will monitor at two sites is: (51%)*(2060))/3297 = 32% for surface water systems serving less than 500 people. (51%)*(2379)74058 = 30% for surface water systems serving between 500 and 3,300 people. (44%)*(752)/17756 = 2% for ground water systems serving less than 500 people. For NTNCWSs, high TTHM and HAA5 concentrations are more likely to be at the same location because these systems are typically small and have small distribution systems. Thus, EPA believes that all eligible NTNCWSs (surface water NTNCWSs serving fewer than 10,000 people and ground water NTNCWSs serving fewer than 500 people) will qualify for reduced sample sites. Surface water systems serving 3,300 or fewer people and ground water systems serving fewer than 500 people required to monitor at two sites instead of a single site have an additional hour of labor to account for travel time to the additional site. However, no additional lab costs are added since the total number of samples is the same. Effects of Reduced Monitoring Both the Stage 1 and Stage 2 DBPRs have a provision for reduced monitoring if compliance monitoring results are below 40 (ig/L for TTHM and 30 (ig/L for HAA5. Although there may be a slight decrease in systems qualifying because of the change from RAA to LRAA, other systems may qualify as they install belter treatment technologies. EPA believes monitoring costs incurred for the reduced monitoring systems from Stage 1 to Stage 2 are expected to change minimally. This EA does not calculate costs associated with changes in reduced monitoring status. Increased Monitoring for Small Systems Surface water systems serving fewer than 500 people and ground water systems serving fewer than 10,000 people are only required to monitor once a year. If one of these systems exceeds 80 (ig/L for TTHM or 60 (ig/L for HAA5, they are not in violation of the maximum contaminant level (MCL) immediately, but instead must increase their monitoring to quarterly. If quarterly monitoring produces a locational running annual average (LRAA) above 80 (ig/L for TTHM or 60 (ig/L for HAA5, then they are in violation of the MCL. If the LRAA is below 60 (ig/L for TTHM or 45 (ig/L for HAA5, the system may return to annual monitoring. Some systems will incur additional monitoring costs because of this requirement. Increased monitoring costs for small systems are not explicitly calculated in this EA because all systems are assumed to apply an operational safety factor when assessing compliance with MCLs. Thus, they are not expected to experience concentrations over the MCLs in future years. This is particularly true for ground water systems since they tend to see less year-to-year variability in source water quality. Although surface water systems could potentially see higher year-to-year variability and be triggered into increased monitoring in the future, EPA expects very few systems to be affected. This was based on the average of four quarters of data for each of four distribution system sites (AVE1, AVE2, DSE, and MAX for plants with at least three quarters of data). Plants with the highest four quarter HAAS average and highest four quarter TTHM average occurring at the same location were assumed to be able to qualify for a reduction in number of monitoring sites under the Stage 2 DBPR. Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR H-19 December 2005 ------- Calculation of systems which will face changes in sampling burden from Stage 1 As noted above, systems can face either an increase, decrease, or no change in number of dual samples required from the Stage 1 DBPR to the Stage 2 DBPR requirements. Exhibits H.8a through H.8c are based on national averages. To obtain a better estimate of the number and percent of systems that would be faced with either increases or decreases in sampling costs, 2000 CWSS data was examined. First systems with extraordinarily high flow or numbers of entry points were removed from the analysis. Based on the remaining systems a distribution of the number of treated entry points per system was calculated. From this point, the number of plants which a system would need to have for its Stage 1 DBPR and Stage 2 DBPR sampling requirements to be the same was calculated. Then using the distributions calculated from the 2000 CWSS, the percentage and number of systems with positive and negative changes in sampling burden from the Stage 1 DBPR to the Stage 2 DBPR was calculated. The results of this calculation are shown in Exhibit. H.8d. Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR H-20 December 2005 ------- Exhibit H.8a Additional Routine Monitoring Costs for Systems Size Category Total Systems A Stage 1 Sampling Plants Per System B Total Plants C = A*B Routine Dual Samples per System D Total Stage 1 Samples E=C*D Stage 2 Sampling Routine Dual Samples per System F Number of Stage 2 Samples G = A*F Surface Water and Mixed CWSs <500 500-3,300 3,301-9,999 10,000-49,999 50,000-249,999 250,000-999,999 1 ,000,000-4,999,999 >5M National Totals 3,297 4,058 2,042 1,773 534 81 17 1 11,803 1.2 1.2 1.6 1.4 1.8 2.5 3.5 3.5 3,989 4,951 3,186 2,429 977 205 60 4 15,800 1 4 4 16 16 16 16 16 3,989 19,803 12,742 38,864 15,636 3,279 960 56 95,330 1 4 8 16 32 48 64 80 3,297 16,232 16,336 28,368 17,088 3,888 1,088 80 86,377 Disinfecting Ground Water Only CWSs <500 500-9,999 10,000-99,999 100,000-499,999 > 500,000 National Totals 17,756 1 1 ,050 1,358 60 6 30,229 1.0 1.5 3.9 7.3 17.0 17,756 16,795 5,336 438 100 40,426 1 1 4 4 4 17,756 16,795 21,344 1,752 401 58,048 1 2 16 24 32 17,756 22,099 21,724 1,434 189 63,202 Surface Water and Mixed NTNCWSs <500 500-3,300 3,301-9,999 10,000-49,999 50,000-249,999 250,000-999,999 1 ,000,000-4,999,999 >5M National Totals 548 199 24 5 1 - - - 777 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 548 199 24 5 1 - - - 777 1 4 4 16 16 16 16 16 548 796 96 80 16 - - - 1,536 1 4 8 16 32 48 64 80 548 796 192 80 32 - - - 1,648 Disinfecting Ground Water Only NTNCWSs <500 500-9,999 10,000-99,999 100,000-499,999 > 500,000 National Totals Grand Totals 4,622 858 3 0 - 5,483 48,293 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 4,622 858 3 0 - 5,483 62,487 1 1 4 4 4 4,622 858 14 1 - 5,495 160,409 1 2 16 24 32 4,622 1,716 56 7 - 6,400 157,627 Notes: Detail may not added due to independent rounding. Systems will incur routine monitoring costs only for sites and samples that are required beyond those required under the Stage 1 DBPR (i.e., systems that, as a result of the IDSE, only move sample sites will incur no additional costs). 1 FTE = 2,080 hours (40 hours/week; 52 weeks/year). Sources: (A) Number of systems from Exhibit H.1 (column K). (B) Number of plants per system based on 2000 CWSS question 18. (D) Routine samples per plant from the Stage 1 Rule (USEPA 1998a). (F) Number of routine samples per system based on Stage 2 rule requirements (population-based approach). Number of samples may be less for SW systems serving < 5,000 and GW systems serving < 500 if high TTHM and HAAS locations are the same. Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR H-21 December 2005 ------- H.8a Additional Routine Monitoring Costs for Systems (continued) Size Category Additional Dual Samples Required for Stage 2 Monitoring H=G-E Hours per Sample I Percent of Systems with Separate TTHM and HAAS sites J Sampling Cost per Labor Hour K Cost per Sample L Sampling Costs Based on Additional Monitoring M = H*(I*K + L) Additiona Labor Costs for Small Systems with Two Sites N = A*I*J*K Total Cost O = M + N Total Burden (Hours) P=H*I + A*I*K Total Burden (FTEs) Q=P/2080 Surface Water and Mixed CWSs <500 500-3,300 3,301-9,999 10,000-49,999 50,000-249,999 250,000-999,999 1,000,000-4,999,999 >5M National Totals (692) (3,571) 3,594 (10,496) 1,452 609 128 24 (8,953) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 32% 30% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $ 22.55 $ 24.74 $ 25.34 $ 26.05 $ 28.00 $ 31.26 $ 31.26 $ 31.26 $ 240 $ 240 $ 240 $ 210 $ 210 $ 210 $ 210 $ 210 $ (181,780) $ (945,397) $ 953,611 $ (2,477,619) $ 345,692 $ 146,956 $ 30,843 $ 5,674 $ (2,122,019) $ 23,455 $ 29,730 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 53,185 $ (158,325) $ (915,667) $ 953,611 $ (2,477,619) $ 345,692 $ 146,956 $ 30,843 $ 5,674 $ (2,068,834) 348 (2,369) 3,594 (10,496) 1,452 609 128 24 (6,711) 0 (D 2 (5) 1 0 0 0 (3) Disinfecting Ground Water Only CWSs <500 500-9,999 10,000-99,999 100,000-499,999 > 500,000 National Totals 0 5,304 380 (318) (212) 5,154 1 1 1 1 1 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% $ 22.35 $ 24.86 $ 26.05 $ 31.26 $ 31.26 $ 240 $ 240 $ 210 $ 210 $ 210 $ $ 1,404,761 $ 89,739 $ (76,712) $ (51,167) 1,366,621 $ 8,485 $ $ $ $ 8,485 $ 8,485 $ 1,404,761 $ 89,739 $ (76,712) $ (51,167) 1,375,106 380 5,304 380 (318) (212) 5,534 0 3 0 (0) (0) 2.66 Surface Water and Mixed NTNCWSs <500 500-3,300 3,301-9,999 10,000-49,999 50,000-249,999 250,000-999,999 1,000,000-4,999,999 >5M National Totals 0 0 96 0 16 0 0 0 112 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $ 22.39 $ 24.74 $ 25.34 $ 26.05 $ 31.26 N/A N/A N/A $ 240 $ 240 $ 240 $ 210 $ 210 $ 210 $ 210 $ 210 $ $ $ 25,473 $ $ 3,860 $ $ $ $ 29,333 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 25,473 $ $ 3,860 $ $ $ $ 29,333 - - 96 16 - 112 - - 0 0 - 0.05 Disinfecting Ground Water Only NTNCWSs <500 500-9,999 10,000-99,999 100,000-499,999 > 500,000 National Totals Grand Totals 0 858 42 6 0 905 (2,781) 1 1 1 1 1 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $ 22.20 $ 24.76 $ 26.05 $ 31.26 N/A $ 240 $ 240 $ 210 $ 210 $ 210 $ $ 227,112 $ 9,857 $ 1,399 $ $ 238,369 (487,696) $ $ $ $ $ $ 61,670 $ $ 227,112 $ 9,857 $ 1,399 $ $ 238,369 (426,026) - 858 42 6 - 905 (160) - 0 0 0 - 0 (0) Notes: Detail may not added due to independent rounding. Systems will incur routine monitoring costs only for sites and samples that are required beyond those required under the Stage 1 DBPR (i.e., systems that, as a result of the IDSE, only move sample sites will incur no additional costs). FTE = 2,080 hours (40 hours/week; 52 weeks/year). 1 Columns M and N for SW < 3,300 and GW < 500 adds in an hour extra sampling time for systems which only take 1 dual sample but at two different sites. This additional labor is calculated by A*J*K Sources: (I) Labor hours per sample reflects EPA estimate. (J) Estimated percent of systems that will have only one sampling site because their high TTHM and HAA5 site occur at the same location based on analysis of Information Collection Rule data from 4 distribution system locations . (K) Technical labor rates from Labor Costs for National Drinking Water Rules (USEPA, 2003s). (L) Laboratory cost for TTHM and HAAS analyses per sample based on costs incurred for the ICR. Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR H-22 December 2005 ------- Monitoring for Systems Adding Disinfection to Comply with the Ground Water Rule (GWR) Some ground water systems that do not currently disinfect may install disinfection to meet the requirements of the GWR. Because the GWR is expected to be promulgated within 8 months after the Stage 2 DBPR, EPA expects new systems adding disinfection to meet GWR requirements to simultaneously achieve compliance with Stage 2 MCLs. Therefore, as discussed in Chapter 3 of this EA, these systems are not included in the treatment baseline. Also, although these systems will be required to monitor for the first time under Stage 2, they will not be required to perform an IDSE since they will add disinfection after the IDSE is required. Systems that begin to disinfect as a result of the GWR will, however, incur new costs for collecting and analyzing all of the required Stage 2 DBPR samples. These costs, which are only estimates and may be different from actual costs depending upon the details of the final GWR, are shown in Exhibit H.8b. Exhibit H.8c shows the sum of additional routine monitoring for disinfecting systems and new GWR disinfecting systems (sum of Exhibits H.8a - H.8b). Column A of this exhibit shows the total change in the number of samples required for each size category between the Stage 1 and Stage 2 compliance monitoring requirements. The rest of the exhibit displays total costs and burdens for Stage 2 DBPR monitoring requirements. Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR H-23 December 2005 ------- Exhibit H.8b Additional Routine Monitoring Costs for Systems Installing Disinfectant to Comply with the GWR Size Category Number of Systems Adding Disinfectant for GWR A Number of Samples for Stage 2 DBPR B Hours Per Sample C Sampling Cost Per Labor Hour D Cost Per Sample E Total Costs F = A*B*(C*D+E) Total Burden (Hours) G = A*B*C Total Burden (FTEs) H = G/2080 Surface Water and Mixed CWSs <500 500-3,300 3,301-9,999 10,000-49,999 50,000-249,999 250,000-999,999 1 ,000,000-4,999,999 >5M National Totals - - - - - - - - - 1 4 8 16 32 48 64 80 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 $ 22.55 $ 24.74 $ 25.34 $ 26.05 $ 28.00 $ 31.26 $ 31.26 $ 31.26 $ 240 $ 240 $ 240 $ 210 $ 210 $ 210 $ 210 $ 210 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Disinfecting Ground Water Only CWSs <500 500-9,999 10,000-99,999 100,000-499,999 > 500,000 National Totals 793 237 11 2 0 1,042 1 2 16 24 32 1 1 1 1 1 $ 22.35 $ 24.86 $ 26.05 $ 31.26 $ 31.26 $ 240 $ 240 $ 210 $ 210 $ 210 $ 208,026 $ 125,379 $ 40,611 $ 9,834 $ 645 $ 384,494 793 473 172 41 3 1,482 0.38 0.23 0.08 0.02 0.00 0.71 Surface Water and Mixed NTNCWSs <500 500-3,300 3,301-9,999 10,000-49,999 50,000-249,999 250,000-999,999 1 ,000,000-4,999,999 >5M National Totals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - 1 4 8 16 32 48 64 80 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 $ 22.39 $ 24.74 $ 25.34 $ 26.05 $ 31.26 N/A N/A N/A $ 240 $ 240 $ 240 $ 210 $ 210 $ 210 $ 210 $ 210 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Disinfecting Ground Water Only NTNCWSs <500 500-9,999 10,000-99,999 100,000-499,999 > 500,000 National Totals Grand Totals 1,241 268 1 0 0 1,510 2,552 1 2 16 24 32 1 1 1 1 1 $ 22.20 $ 24.76 $ 26.05 $ 31.26 N/A $ 240 $ 240 $ 210 $ 210 $ 210 $ 325,412 $ 141,666 $ 4,938 $ 686 $ $ 472,703 $ 857,197 1,241 535 21 3 - 1,800 3,282 0.60 0.26 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.87 1.58 Sources: (A) Best estimate based on proposed Ground Water Rule (B) Number of routine samples per system, Exhibit H.8a Column F. Number of samples may be less for SW systems serving < 5,000 and GW systems serving < 500 if high TTHM and HAAS locations are the same. (C) Labor hours per sample reflects EPA estimate. (D) Technical labor rates from Labor Costs for National Drinking Water Rules (USEPA, 2003s). (E) Laboratory cost for TTHM and HAAS analyses per sample based on costs incurred for the ICR. Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR H-24 December 2005 ------- Exhibit H.8c Total Additional Routine Monitoring Costs Size Category Total Additional Compliance Samples per Year A Total Labor Costs B Total Sampling Costs C Total Costs D Total Burden (Hours) E Total Burden (FTEs) F= E/2080 Surface Water and Mixed CWSs <500 500-3,300 3,301-9,999 10,000-49,999 50,000-249,999 250,000-999,999 1,000,000-4,999,999 >5M National Totals (692) (3,571) 3,594 (10,496) 1,452 609 128 24 (8,953) $ 7,844 $ (58,617) $ 91,070 $ (273,425) $ 40,671 $ 19,041 $ 3,996 $ 735 $ (168,684) $ (166,169) $ (857,050) $ 862,541 $ (2,204,194) $ 305,021 $ 127,915 $ 26,846 $ 4,939 $ (1,900,150) $ (158,325) $ (915,667) $ 953,611 $ (2,477,619) $ 345,692 $ 146,956 $ 30,843 $ 5,674 $ (2,068,834) 348 (2,369) 3,594 (10,496) 1,452 609 128 24 (6,711) 0.17 -1.14 1.73 -5.05 0.70 0.29 0.06 0.01 (3.23) Disinfecting Ground Water Only CWSs <500 500-9,999 10,000-99,999 100,000-499,999 > 500,000 National Totals 793 5,777 552 (277) (209) 6,636 $ 26,209 $ 143,617 $ 14,385 $ (8,665) $ (6,546) $ 169,000 $ 190,302 $ 1,386,523 $ 115,964 $ (58,213) $ (43,976) $ 1,590,600 $ 216,511 $ 1,530,140 $ 130,349 $ (66,879) $ (50,522) $ 1,759,600 1,173 5,777 552 (277) (209) 7,015 0.56 2.78 0.27 -0.13 -0.10 3.37 Surface Water and Mixed NTNCWSs <500 500-3,300 3,301-9,999 10,000-49,999 50,000-249,999 250,000-999,999 1,000,000-4,999,999 >5M National Totals 0 0 96 0 16 - - - 112 $ 0 $ 0 $ 2,433 $ 0 $ 500 $ $ $ $ 2,933 $ 0 $ 0 $ 23,040 $ 0 $ 3,360 $ $ $ $ 26,400 $ 0 $ 0 $ 25,473 $ 0 $ 3,860 $ $ $ $ 29,333 0 0 96 0 16 0 0 0 112 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 Disinfecting Ground Water Only NTNCWSs <500 500-9,999 10,000-99,999 100,000-499,999 > 500,000 National Totals Grand Totals 1,241 1,393 63 9 - 2,705 500 $ 27,552 $ 34,481 $ 1,633 $ 270 $ $ 63,936 $ 67,185 $ 297,860 $ 334,297 $ 13,163 $ 1,815 $ $ 647,135 $ 363,986 $ 325,412 $ 368,779 $ 14,796 $ 2,085 $ $ 711,072 $ 431,171 1,241 1,393 63 9 0 2,705 3,122 0.60 0.67 0.03 0.00 0.00 1.30 1.50 Note: (A) Shows the difference in total compliance monitoring samples from Stage 1 to Stage 2 for disinfecting systems and systms predicted to install disinfection for the GWR. For disinfecting systems, derived from Exhibit H.8a, column I. For systems installing disinfection for the GWR, derived from Exhibit H.8b, product of columns A and B. Sources: (A) sum of column I from Exhibit H.8a and column (A) times column (B) from Exhibit H.8b (B) - (E) Summed from tables H.8a - H.8b. Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR H-25 December 2005 ------- Exhibit H.8d Percentage and Number of Plants with Changes in Sampling Burden Size Category SWCWS <500 500-3,300 3,301-9,999 10,00049,999 50,000-249,999 250,000-999,999 1,000,0004,999,999 15 M National Totals Number of Systems A 3,297 4,058 2,042 1,773 534 81 17 1 11,803 Plants per System B 1.21 1.22 1.56 1.37 1.83 2.53 3.53 3.53 1.3 Stage 1 Samples per Plant C 1 4 4 16 16 16 16 16 6.0 Average Stage 1 Samples per System D = B*C 1.2 4.9 6.2 21.9 29.3 40.5 56.5 56.5 8.1 Stage 2 Samples per System E 1 4 8 16 32 48 64 80 7.3 Number of Plants per System for No Change in Sampling Burden F = E/C 1 1 2 1 2 3 4 5 1.2 Percent with Positive Sampling Burden Percent with Zero Sampling Burden Percent with Negative Sampling Burden G H I 0.0% 0.0% 65.6% 0.0% 52.3% 59.2% 44.4% 44.4% 14.2% GWCWS <500 500-9,999 10,000-99,999 100,000-499,999 > 500,000 National Totals 17,756 11,050 1,358 60 6 30,229 1 1.52 3.93 7.33 17 1.3 1 1 4 4 4 1.4 1.0 1.5 15.7 29.3 68.0 1.9 1 2 16 24 32 2.1 1 2 4 6 8 1.5 28.3% 62.7% 57.5% 62.6% 33.3% 42.3% SW NTNCWS <500 500-3,300 3,301-9,999 10,00049,999 50,000-249,999 250,000-999,999 1,000,0004,999,999 15 M National Totals 548 199 24 5 1 0 0 0 777 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.0 1 4 4 16 16 16 16 16 2.0 2.0 1 4 8 16 32 48 64 80 2.1 1 1 2 1 2 3 4 5 1.0 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 3.2% GW NTNCWS <500 500-9,999 10,000-99,999 100,000-499,999 > 500,000 National Totals Grand Totals 4,622 858 3 0 0 5,483 48,293 1 1 1 1 1 1.0 1.3 1 1 4 4 4 1.0 2.5 1.0 3.3 1 2 16 24 32 1.2 3.3 1 2 4 6 8 1.2 1.4 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 15.7% 31.8% 79.8% 84.8% 19.8% 73.6% 25.0% 23.3% 33.3% 33.3% 67.3% 55.7% 15.8% 17.8% 8.1% 0.0% 39.3% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 96.8% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 84.3% 52.2% 20.2% 15.2% 14.6% 26.4% 22.6% 17.5% 22.2% 22.2% 18.6% Number with Positive Sampling Burden K = G*A 0 0 1,339 0 279 48 8 0.4 1,675 Number with Zero Sampling Burden L = H*A 2,630 3,441 404 1,304 134 19 6 0.3 7,938 Number with Negative Sampling Burden M =I*A 667 617 299 469 121 14 4 0.2 2,190 16.0% 21.5% 24.8% 29.4% 66.7% 18.5% 5,025 6,928 780 37 2 12,772 9,889 1,742 241 5 0 11,877 2,843 2,379 336 18 4 5,580 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 24 0 1 0 0 0 25 548 199 0 5 0 0 0 0 752 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.1% 0 858 3 0 0 862 15,333 4,622 0 0 0 0 4,622 25,189 0 0 0 0 0 0 7,771 Note: Sources: (A) Exhibit H.8a column A (B) Average number of plants per system based on 2000 CWSS question 18. (C) Routine samples per plant from the Stage 1 Rule (USEPA 1998a). (E) Number of routine samples per system based on Stage 2 rule requirements (population-based approach). Number of samples may be less for SW systems serving < 5,000 and GW systems serving < 500 if high TTHM and HAAS locations are the same. (G), (H), (I) Based on analyisis of 2000 CWSS question 18. H.6 National Costs for Operational Evaluations This section discusses the national costs of exceeding operational evaluation levels and the benefits that may occur by reducing them after implementing the Stage 2 DBPR. • Section H.6.1 defines an operational evaluation. • Section H.6.2 describes the evaluation procedure for systems that exceed operational evaluation levels. Section H.6.3 presents the costs associated with operational evaluations and the estimated number of systems affected. • Section H.6.4 explains the benefits of operational evaluation requirements. Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR H-26 December 2005 ------- H.6.1 Definition of "Operational Evaluation Level" Although the Stage 2 DBPR is expected to reduce the number and level of peak DBF events, EPA recognizes that levels above 80 |-lg/L for TTHM and 60 |-lg/L for HAAS may still occur, even when systems are in full compliance with MCLs. An exceedance of the operational evaluation level is defined as a sample result, when multiplied by 2 and added to the previous two quarters and then divided by 4, that gives an LRAA over 80 |o,g/L for TTHM or 60 |o,g/L for HAAS. For example, if a system had a current quarter result of 100 |o,g/L and had first and second quarter TTHM results of 70 |o,g/L, the resulting calculation gives: (2* (100 ng/L) + 70 ng/L + 70 ng/L)/4 = 85 Therefore, an exceedance of the operational evaluation level would result from the above scenario. H.6.2 System Requirements for Operational Evaluations If a system exceeds an operational evaluation level, it must conduct a operational evaluation and submit a written report to the State no later than 90 days after being notified of the analytical result that exceeded the operational evaluation level. The evaluation must include an examination of system treatment and distribution operational practices, including storage tank operations, excess storage capacity, distribution system flushing, changes in sources or source water quality, and treatment technology changes or problems that may contribute to TTHM and HAAS formation and what steps could be considered to minimize future excursions. Exceeding an operational evaluation level, as defined in section H.6.1, is not a violation of the Stage 2 DBPR and does not require any public notification or explanation in Consumer Confidence Reports (CCR). Systems are not required to take any action to reduce DBP concentrations as a result of exceeding operational evaluation levels; however, reducing peaks is a primary objective of the Stage 2 DBPR and is an important goal in providing safe drinking water. EPA is providing guidance to systems on operational alternatives to reduce DBP peaks in the distribution system. H.6.3 Cost Implications of Exceeding Operational Evaluation Levels Each time an operational evaluation level is exceeded, it is expected to result in some labor costs for systems to evaluate the exceedance and prepare the operational evaluation report. To determine national costs for operational evaluations, this section presents an estimate of: (1) the percent of all sampling locations exceeding Stage 2 DBPR operational evaluation levels, and (2) the burden for each operational evaluation. Percent of Locations That Are Peaks and Per cent of Systems Experiencing Peaks EPA examined ICR data to estimate the number of systems that might exceed an operational evaluation level. Because the ICR data were taken before both Stage 1 and Stage 2 requirements were in place, the data had to be adjusted to reflect changes that plants would make to meet Stage 1 and Stage 2 MCLs. EPA developed a method called the ICR matrix method, which is described in detail in Chapter 5 of this EA, to adjust the data. Post-Stage 2 predicted occurrence of TTHM and HAAS concentrations were evaluated to assess the potential frequency of operational evaluation level exceedances. Because the predicted occurrence was only based on 1 year of data, alternative sequences of samples were evaluated. For example, EPA Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR H-27 December 2005 ------- checked whether the 3rd quarter results would exceed an operational evaluation level following the 1st and 2nd quarter results. Next, EPA checked whether the 3rd quarter results would exceed an operational evaluation level following the 4th and 1st quarter results and the 4th and 2nd quarter results. This process continued until all possible combinations of quarters had been examined. However, no more than one excursion occurred for any given sample location. For each system size category, the number of exceedances of operational evaluation levels were estimated as a percent of locations exceeding these levels. The percent for each category was multiplied by the adjusted number of locations in that category to determine the total number of locations exceeding operational evaluation levels. Individual monitoring locations were evaluated instead of plants so that the results could be extrapolated to systems with a different number of sites per system than the plants participating in the ICR. The 10 percent safety factor was chosen for the cost analysis for this rule activity, to more conservatively reflect the possibility of year to year variability from the ICR data. Exhibit H.9 displays the results of the analysis. Exhibit H.9 Predicted Occurrence of Exceeding Operational Evaluation Levels in Large Systems System Type Number of Locations Evaluated A Number of Locations exceeding Operation Evaluational Levels B % of Locations exceeding Operational Evaluation Levels C = B/A Post-Stage 2 GW SW All 327 851 1,178 0 12 12 0.00% 1.41% 1.02% Sources: (A) - (B) Analysis of Post-Stage 2 ICR data, developed using the ICR matrix method defined in Ch. 5. To estimate the total number of operational evaluation level exceedances that will occur nationally, EPA assumed that results of the ICR location analysis represent, as a whole, the probability that any one treated-water location meeting the Stage 2 requirements will exceed an operational evaluation level. Those single-location probabilities are 1.4 percent (12/851) and 0 percent (0/327) for surface water and ground water sampling locations, respectively. EPA used the following procedure to calculate the probability of finding an operational evaluation level exceedance in 1 year. Assuming independence from one location to the next, EPA calculated the probability of at least one exceedance occurring for N locations from l-(l-p)N, where p is the probability of observing a peak. In this calculation, (1-p) is the probability of not observing an operational evaluation level exceedance in any one location, and (l-p)N is the probability of not observing an exceedance after N locations. For example, it can be estimated that a surface water system monitoring at 4 locations has a probability of (1-0.0141)4 = 0.9448 of not observing an operational evaluation level exceedance. Therefore, the probability of observing at least one exceedance is simply 1 minus that value, or 1 - 0.9448 = 0.0552 (5.52 percent). EPA used this approach to estimate the probability of observing an operational evaluation level exceedance in surface and ground water systems, as shown in Exhibit H. 10. EPA assumed that two exceedances in a given location would not occur since systems are expected to address problems identified in the operational evaluation, making a recurrence unlikely. Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR H-28 December 2005 ------- The same percentages used for large systems were also used to estimate the occurrence of operational evaluation level exceedances for small and medium systems. EPA assumed that NTNCWSs would not exceed operational evaluation levels since these systems typically have very small distribution systems and have less variability in TTHM/HAA5 levels. Exhibit H.10 Number of Locations and Systems Exceeding Operational Evaluation Levels Size Category No. of Systems A No. of Stage 2 Monitoring Locations/ System B Percent of Locations that exceed Operational Evaluation Levels C Estimated Number of Locations/Year that exceed Operational Evaluation Levels D = Round [A*B*C] Percent of Systems that do not exceed Operational Evaluation Levels E = (1-C)B Percent of Systems with atleast one exceedance of Operational Evaluation Levels/yr F = 1-E Predicted No. of Systems with atleast one exceedance of Operational Evaluation Levels/yr G = Round [A*F] Surface Water and Mixed CWSs <500 500-3,300 3,301-9,999 10,000-49,999 50,000-249,999 250,000-999,999 1,000,000-4,999,999 >5M National Totals 3,297 4,058 2,042 1,773 534 81 17 1 11,803 1 1 4 8 16 24 32 40 0.4% 0.7% 0.7% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 12 28 57 199 120 27 8 1 452 99.65% 99.30% 97.23% 89.33% 79.68% 71.12% 63.48% 56.66% 0.3% 0.7% 2.8% 10.7% 20.3% 28.9% 36.5% 43.3% 12 28 57 189 109 23 6 0 424 Disinfecting Ground Water Only CWSs <500 500-9,999 10,000-99,999 100,000-499,999 > 500,000 National Totals 17,756 11,050 1,358 60 6 30,229 1 2 6 8 12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - - - - - - 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 Surface Water and Mixed NTNCWSs <500 500-3,300 3,301-9,999 10,000-49,999 50,000-249,999 250,000-999,999 1,000,000-4,999,999 >5M National Totals 548 199 24 5 1 - 777 1 1 4 8 16 24 32 40 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - - - - - - - - - 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Disinfecting Ground Water Only NTNCWSs <500 500-9,999 10,000-99,999 100,000-499,999 > 500,000 National Totals Grand Totals 4,622 858 3 0 5,483 48,293 1 2 6 8 12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - - - - - - 452 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 424 Notes: Detail may not add to totals due to independent rounding. Sources: (A) Exhibit H.1, Column K. (B) Stage 2 DBPR sample requirements presented in Chapter 1. Data shown are the total number of locations required per year. (C) Exhibit H.9, column I for 10% safety factor. Level of Effort Required for Operational Evaluations EPA estimates that systems will spend 2 to 16 hours to perform an operational evaluation, depending on system size (large systems with more complex distribution systems are expected to spend 16 hours per exceedance, while small systems with simpler distribution systems are expected to spend 2 hours per exceedance). There may be reduced effort for systems that experience more than one Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR H-29 December 2005 ------- exceedance of operational evaluation levels yearly; however, this effect could not be quantified. EPA also expects the rate of exceedances to decrease over time as systems begin identifying the cause and working with their States/Primacy Agencies to reduce future exceedances. Other Cost Implications Although systems are not required to make changes as a result of exceeding operational evaluation levels, they may still decide to change their operations to reduce the likelihood of future exceedances of operational evaluation levels and potential MCL violations. These changes can range from minimal to significant depending on the nature of the solution and size of the system. Because changes are not required by EPA, the costs for responding to exceedances of operational evaluation levels are not included as part of the national costs of the Stage 2 DBPR; however, examples of typical system- level costs are provided below to show potential implications. Systems have a number of operational and distribution system modification options available to reduce DBP concentrations and eliminate exceedances of operational evaluation levels. If a system determines that a storage tank is the cause of an exceedance, it may be possible to implement operational changes, such as lengthening drain/fill cycles or increasing the frequency of drain/fill cycles, to improve tank mixing. A system may also consider decommissioning excess storage, or maintaining excess storage for emergency use only. Generally, these options will require minimal additional expenditures by the system; however, in some cases their feasibility may depend on system pressure requirements. When excess storage is to be maintained for emergency use only, it is still important to maintain water quality in the storage tank. This may require periodic manual disinfection (i.e., addition of calcium hypochlorite tablets) to prevent significant microbiological activity in the storage tank. This can involve some chemical cost (chlorination tablets are available for about $65 per 25 pounds), as well as additional labor cost (e.g., a few hours for a two-person crew). When excess storage is to be maintained for emergency use only, it is important to adequately flush the system after the tank has been used. If operational modifications fail to improve tank water quality, it may be necessary to make inlet/outlet piping modifications, install baffles, or add a recirculation system to improve tank mixing. The costs for these types of improvements are widely variable and depend on the size and configuration of the existing tank. For example, capital costs for modifications to inlet/outlet piping in six standpipes (2 million gallon (MG) to 4 MG capacity) may range from $78,000 to $94,000 for one system. Costs for modifications to elevated tanks (all 1 MG capacity) may range from $19,000 to $90,000 for the same system. These costs do not include the installation of sample probes and temperature sensors used to verify proper tank mixing (estimated at $34,000 per tank including tie-in to an existing Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system). Another operational option available to systems is the use of flushing and blow-offs in high residence-time areas. Costs for these options can vary significantly from system to system depending on size, amount of labor involved, and if system modifications are required. Some large systems employ one or more flushing crews, whose sole responsibility is to flush system dead ends. For a two-person crew at a labor rate of $25 per hour (including fringe benefits), a system would incur a cost of over $100,000 per year. Assuming installation of a fire hydrant as a conservative estimate, the cost to add a dead end blow- off or flushing station could be $8,000 or more (RS Means 1999). Where runoff from blow-offs or flushing locations contains chloramines and may enter open waterways, neutralization of chloraminated discharges will be necessary. This can be done by laying burlap sacks filled with ammonium sulfate or sodium sulfite in the path of the runoff. Water losses may also be a concern in water scarce regions. The costs associated with water losses are system specific and no attempt has been made to quantify them here. Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR H-30 December 2005 ------- Exhibit H.11 Operational Evaluation Costs Size Category Estimated No. of Locations/yr that exceed Operational Evaluation Levels A Reporting Hours per Operational Evaluation B Cost per Labor Hour C Total Cost D = A*B*C Total Burden (Hours) E = A*B Total Burden (FTEs) F=E/2,080 Surface Water and Mixed CWSs <500 500-3,300 3,301-9,999 10,000-49,999 50,000-249,999 250,000-999,999 1 ,000,000-4,999,999 >5M National Totals 12 28 57 199 120 27 8 1 452 6 12 12 16 16 16 16 16 $ 22.55 $ 24.74 $ 30.51 $ 31.08 $ 32.64 $ 35.25 $ 35.25 $ 35.25 $ 1,623 $ 8,313 $ 20,870 $ 98,959 $ 62,671 $ 15,227 $ 4,512 $ 564 $ 212,739 72 336 684 3,184 1,920 432 128 16 6772 0.0 0.2 0.3 1.5 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.3 Disinfecting Ground Water Only CWSs <500 500-9,999 10,000-99,999 100,000-499,999 > 500,000 National Totals - - - - - - 6 12 16 16 16 $ 22.35 $ 24.86 $ 31.08 $ 35.25 $ 35.25 $ $ $ $ $ $ - - - - - - - - - - - - Surface Water and Mixed NTNCWSs <500 500-3,300 3,301-9,999 10,000-49,999 50,000-249,999 250,000-999,999 1 ,000,000-4,999,999 >5M National Totals - - - - - - - - - 6 12 12 16 16 16 16 16 $ 22.39 $ 24.74 $ 30.51 $ 31.08 $ 35.25 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Disinfecting Ground Water Only NTNCWSs <500 500-9,999 10,000-99,999 100,000-499,999 > 500,000 National Totals Grand Totals - - - - - - 452 2 2 3 3 3 $ 22.20 $ 24.76 $ 31.08 $ 35.25 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 212,739 - - - - - - 6,772 - - - - - - 3.3 Notes: Detail may not add to totals due to independent rounding. 1 FTE = 2,080 hours (40 hours/week; 52 weeks/year). Sources: (A) Exhibit H.10, column D. (B) Hours estimated by EPA to complete Operational Evaluations. EPA expects it to take less time for small systems given they have simpler distribution systems. (C) Labor rates from the Labor Costs for National Drinking Water Rules (USEPA, 2003s) . An 80:20 split between technical and managerial labor rates was assumed, except for systems serving 500 or fewer people, for which only a technical rate was applied. Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR H-31 December 2005 ------- If long residence times in distribution system dead ends are the source of an exceedance of an operational evaluation level, then systems may be able to improve flow in dead-end areas and reduce water residence time by "looping" dead ends together. For looping to be effective, it is critical that sufficient demand exists in the looped area to create a flow pattern that eliminates the dead end, rather than creating a larger one. The costs associated with looping will vary from system to system, depending on the size and length of pipe involved. Based on cost data presented in RS Means (1999), the cost for looping may range from $3,500 per 100 feet for a 6-inch line to $20,000 per 100 feet for a 24-inch line. Variability from system to system makes it difficult to quantify the possible costs associated with operational evaluation remedies. The most effective option will vary from system to system, as will the costs for similar types of improvements. H.6.4 Benefits Implications of the Operational Evaluation Requirements As discussed in detail in Chapter 5 of this EA, a primary objective of the Stage 2 DBPR is to reduce peak DBF occurrence, thereby reducing potential adverse developmental and reproductive health effects and cancers associated with DBFs. Although systems are not required to make changes in response to significant DBF excursions, EPA believes that the requirement to perform an operational evaluation will encourage attention to peak events and foster better understanding of peak TTHM and HAAS occurrence in the distribution system. H.7 Summary of Systems Costs for Non-Treatment-Related Rule Activities This section summarizes the estimated number of systems performing various rule activities and their associated costs, derived previously in sections H.2 through H.6. Exhibit H. 12a shows the number of systems performing each rule activity, and Exhibit H. 12b shows the number of systems that will add disinfection for the GWR performing each rule activity. Exhibit H. 13 shows costs for both the baseline systems and the GWR systems. The estimates in Exhibits H. 12a, H. 12b, and H. 13 are broken out by the Stage 2 DBPR monitoring size categories. To combine system and cost breakouts with comparable treatment costs (derived in Chapter 7 of this EA), the results in Exhibits H.12 and H.13 were transformed into EPA's standard nine system size categories. Exhibit H. 14 (the baseline adjustment matrix) shows the percentage of systems from each of the Stage 2 DBPR monitoring size categories that is in each of EPA's nine standard size categories (see section H.I for an additional description of this calculation). Data in Exhibit H.I4 are derived from SDWIS 4th Quarter Frozen Database (USEPA 2003t). EPA multiplied the results from Exhibits H. 12 and H. 13 by the baseline adjustment matrix in Exhibit H.14 to produce system and cost results in EPA's nine standard size categories (Exhibits H.15a, H.15b, and H. 16). Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR H-32 December 2005 ------- Exhibit H.12a Systems Performing Various Rule Activities, by Stage 2 Monitoring Size Categories System Size (Population Served) Baseline No. of Systems A Implementation B = A IDSE C Stage 2 Monitoring Plans D Additional Routine Monitoring E Operational Evaluations F Surface Water and Mixed CWSs <500 500-3,300 3,301-9,999 10,000-49,999 50,000-249,999 250,000-999,999 1,000,000-4,999,999 >5M National Totals 3,297 4,058 2,042 1,773 534 81 17 1 11,803 3,297 4,058 2,042 1,773 534 81 17 1 11,803 2,060 3,823 1,888 1,524 436 63 14 1 9,809 2,060 4,058 2,042 1,773 534 81 17 1 10,566 0 0 2,042 0 534 81 17 1 2,675 12 28 57 189 109 23 6 0 424 Disinfecting Ground Water Only CWSs <500 500-9,999 10,000-99,999 100,000-499,999 > 500,000 National Totals 17,756 11,050 1,358 60 6 30,229 17,756 11,050 1,358 60 6 30,229 752 1,956 240 18 1 2,966 752 11,050 1,358 60 6 13,225 0 11,050 1,358 0 0 12,407 0 0 0 0 0 0 Surface Water and Mixed NTNCWSs <500 500-3,300 3,301-9,999 10,000-49,999 50,000-249,999 250,000-999,999 1,000,000-4,999,999 >5M National Totals 548 199 24 5 1 0 0 0 777 548 199 24 5 1 0 0 0 777 - 4 1 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 5 1 0 0 0 6 0 0 24 0 1 0 0 0 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Disinfecting Ground Water Only NTNCWSs <500 500-9,999 10,000-99,999 100,000-499,999 > 500,000 National Totals Grand Totals 4,622 858 3 0 0 5,483 48,293 4,622 858 3 0 0 5,483 48,293 - - 1 0 0 1 12,780 0 0 3 0 0 4 23,800 0 858 3 0 0 862 15,969 0 0 0 0 0 0 424 Note: Detail may not add due to independent rounding. Sources: Non-treatment-Related Rule Activities, in addition to those shown in the table, also include routine compliance monitoring. Some systems are expected to take more samples and some are expected to take less from Stage 1 to Stage 2 depending on the number of plants in their systems. Overall, the Stage 2 DBPR results in an increase in the total number of compliance samples taken from the Stage 1 DBPR. See Exhibit H.8a for column I, for the change in total samples for different system size categories. (A) and (B) Exhibit H.1 (column K). (C)Exhibits H.3a and b (column E). (D) Exhibit H.7 (column A). (E) Exhibit H.8a (column A). (F) Exhibit H.10 (column G). Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR H-33 December 2005 ------- Exhibit H.12b Non-Treatment Related Rule Activities for Systems Adding Disinfection to Comply with the GWR System Size (Population Served) Baseline No. of Systems Adding Disinfectant for the GWR A Number Preparing Stage 2 Monitoring Plans B Percent Preparing Monitoring Plans C = B/A Number Performing Additional Routine Monitoring D Percent Performing Additional Routine Monitoring E = D/A Surface Water and Mixed CWSs <500 500-3,300 3,301-9,999 10,000-49,999 50,000-249,999 250,000-999,999 1 ,000,000-4,999,999 >5M National Totals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Disinfecting Ground Water Only CWSs <500 500-9,999 10,000-99,999 100,000-499,999 > 500,000 National Totals 793 237 11 2 0 1,042 793 237 11 2 0 1,042 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 793 237 11 2 0 1,042 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Surface Water and Mixed NTNCWSs <500 500-3,300 3,301-9,999 10,000-49,999 50,000-249,999 250,000-999,999 1,000,000-4,999,999 >5M National Totals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 Disinfecting Ground Water Only NTNCWSs <500 500-9,999 10,000-99,999 100,000-499,999 > 500,000 National Totals Grand Total 1,241 268 1 0 0 1,510 2,552 1,241 268 1 0 0 1,510 2,552 100% 100% 100% 100% 0% 1,241 268 1 0 0 1,510 2,552 100% 100% 100% 100% 0% Note: Sources: Detail may not add due to independent rounding. Non-treatment-Related Rule Activities, in addition to those shown in the table, include routine compliance monitoring for all systems. (A) Exhibit 8.b (B) Exhibits H.7 (column C). (D) Exhibit H.8b (column A). Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR H-34 December 2005 ------- Exhibit H.13 Non-Treatment Cost Summary, by Stage 2 Monitoring Size Categories System Size (PopulationServed) Implementation A IDSE B Stage 2 Monitoring Plans C Additional Routine Monitoring D Operational Evaluations E Surface Water and Mixed CWSs <500 500-3,300 3,301-9,999 10,000-49,999 50,000-249,999 250,000-999,999 1 ,000,000-4,999,99 35M National Totals $ 743,375 $ 1,003,949 $ 623,055 $ 1,212,306 $ 383,467 $ 68,522 $ 14,381 $ 846 $ 4,049,902 $ 1,360,071 $ 8,670,108 $ 8,379,826 $ 17,851,398 $ 10,274,027 $ 2,265,622 $ 671,771 $ 59,594 $ 49,532,418 $ 232,182 $ 501,975 $ 258,721 $ 461,867 $ 149,527 $ 37,981 $ 10,628 $ 938 $ 1,653,819 $ (158,325) $ (915,667) $ 953,611 $ (2,477,619) $ 345,692 $ 146,956 $ 30,843 $ 5,674 $ (2,068,834) $ 1,623 $ 8,313 $ 20,870 $ 98,959 $ 62,671 $ 15,227 $ 4,512 $ 564 $ 212,739 Disinfecting Ground Water Only CWSs <500 500-9,999 10,000-99,999 100,000-499,999 > 500,000 National Totals $ 3,572,101 $ 2,472,179 $ 886,174 $ 44,241 $ 4,361 $ 6,979,054 $ 495,114 $ 5,339,608 $ 1,824,904 $ 160,973 $ 11,929 $ 7,832,529 $ 172,612 $ 1,402,853 $ 356,494 $ 28,822 $ 3,735 $ 1,964,515 $ 216,511 $ 1,530,140 $ 130,349 $ (66,879) $ (50,522) $ 1,759,600 - - $ $ $ $ Surface Water and Mixed NTNCWSs <500 500-3,300 3,301-9,999 10,000-49,999 50,000-249,999 250,000-999,999 1 ,000,000-4,999,99 35M National Totals $ 110,450 $ 44,309 $ 6,591 $ 3,263 $ 740 $ $ $ $ 165,353 $ $ $ $ 46,876 $ 23,725 $ $ $ $ 70,601 $ $ 9,847 $ 1,216 $ 1,303 $ 313 $ $ $ $ 12,678 $ $ $ 25,473 $ $ 3,860 $ $ $ $ 29,333 $ $ - - $ $ $ $ $ Disinfecting Ground Water Only NTNCWSs <500 500-9,999 10,000-99,999 100,000-499,999 > 500,000 National Totals Grand Totals $ 923,423 $ 191,118 $ 2,271 $ 215 $ $ 1,117,027 $ 12,311,336 $ $ $ 932 $ $ $ 932 $ 57,436,480 $ 137,760 $ 75,586 $ 1,247 $ 192 $ $ 214,785 $ 3,845,797 $ 325,412 $ 368,779 $ 14,796 $ 2,085 $ $ 711,072 $ 431,171 $ $ - - $ $ $ 212,739 Notes: Detail may not add to totals due to independent rounding. Costs for Stage 2 monitoring plans and additional routine monitoring include those costs for systems that are projected to add disinfection to comply with the GWR. Sources: (A) Exhibit H.2 (column E). (B) Sum of Exhibit H.4 (column I) , Exhibit H.5 (column F), and H.6(column F). (C) Exhibit H.7 (column G). (D) Exhibit H.8c (column D). (E) Exhibit H.11 (Column D). Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR H-35 December 2005 ------- Exhibit H.14 Baseline Adjustment Matrix from Stage 2 Monitoring Categories to Standard Nine Categories Stage 2 Monitoring Size Categories (Population Served) Standard Size Categories (Population Served) <100 100-499 500-999 1 ,000-3,299 3,300-9,999 10,000-49,999 50,000-99,999 100,000-999,999 > 1 ,000,000 SW-CWS <500 500-3,300 3,301-9,999 10,000-49,999 50,000-249,999 250,000-999,999 1 ,000,000-4,999,999 >5M 32.9% 67.1% 36.2% 63.8% 100.0% 100.0% 62.5% 37.5% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% SW-NTNCWS <500 500-3,300 3,301-9,999 10,000-49,999 50,000-249,999 250,000-999,999 1 ,000,000-4,999,999 >5M 42.2% 57.8% 53.3% 46.7% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Stage 2 Monitoring Categories (Population Served) Standard Size Categories (Population Served) <100 100-499 500-999 1,000-3,299 3,300-9,999 10,000-49,999 50,000-99,999 100,000-999,999 > 1,000,000 GW-CWS <500 500-9,999 10,000-99,999 100,000-499,999 >500,000 44.7% 55.3% 36.2% 43.9% 19.9% 90.0% 10.0% 100.0% 50.0% 50.0% GW-NTNCWS <500 500-9,999 10,000-99,999 100,000-499,999 >500,000 53.9% 46.1% 68.7% 28.8% 2.5% 91.7% 8.3% 100.0% Source: SDWIS 2003 4th quarter frozen database (USEPA 2003t) Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR H-36 December 2005 ------- Exhibit H.15a Systems Performing Various Rule Activities, Standard Nine Size Categories System Size (Population Served) Baseline Number of Systems A Implemen- tation B=A IDSE C Stage 2 Monitoring Plans D Operational Evaluations E Surface Water and Mixed CWSs <100 100-499 500-999 1,000-3,299 3,300-9,999 10,000-49,999 50,000-99,999 100,000-999,999 > 1,000,000 National Totals 1,085 2,212 1,470 2,588 2,042 1,773 334 281 18 11,803 1,085 2,212 1,470 2,588 2,042 1,773 334 281 18 11,803 678 1,382 1,385 2,438 1,888 1,524 273 226 15 9,809 678 1,382 1,470 2,588 2,042 1,773 334 281 18 10,566 4 8 10 18 57 189 68 64 6 424 Disinfecting Ground Water Only CWSs <100 1 00-499 500-999 1,000-3,299 3,300-9,999 10,000-49,999 50,000-99,999 100,000-999,999 > 1,000,000 National Totals 7,935 9,821 3,998 4,852 2,200 1,222 136 63 3 30,229 7,935 9,821 3,998 4,852 2,200 1,222 136 63 3 30,229 336 416 708 859 389 216 24 18 0 2,966 336 416 3,998 4,852 2,200 1,222 136 63 3 13,225 - - - - - - Surface Water and Mixed NTNCWSs <100 1 00-499 500-999 1,000-3,299 3,300-9,999 10,000-49,999 50,000-99,999 100,000-999,999 > 1,000,000 National Totals 231 317 106 93 24 5 1 - 777 231 317 106 93 24 5 1 - 777 - - 4 1 - 5 - - 5 1 - 6 - - - - - Disinfecting Ground Water Only NTNCWSs <100 100-499 500-999 1,000-3,299 3,300-9,999 10,000-49,999 50,000-99,999 100,000-999,999 > 1,000,000 National Totals Grand Totals 2,493 2,129 589 247 21 3 0 0 - 5,483 48,293 2,493 2,129 589 247 21 3 0 0 - 5,483 48,293 - - - 1 0 0 - 1 12,780 - - - 3 0 0 - 4 23,800 - - - - - - 424 Additional Routine Monitoring F - - 2,042 334 281 18 2,675 - - 3,998 4,852 2,200 1,222 136 - 12,407 - - 24 - 1 - 25 - 589 247 21 3 0 0 - 862 15,969 Notes: Detail may not add to totals due to independent rounding. Non-treatment-Related Rule Activities, in addition to those shown in the table, also include routine compliance monitoring. Some systems are expected to take more samples and some are expected to take less from Stage 1 to Stage 2 depending on the number of plants in their systems. Overall, the Stage 2 DBPR results in an increase in the total number of compliance samples taken from the Stage 1 DBPR. See Exhibit H.8a for column I, for the change in total samples for different system size categories. Source: Derived by multiplying results in H.13 by the baseline adjustment matrix in H.14. Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR H-37 December 2005 ------- Exhibit H.15b Non-Treatment Related Rule Activities for Systems Adding Disinfection to Comply with the GWR, Standard Nine Size Categories System Size (Population Served) Baseline Number of Systems Adding Disinfectant for the GWR A Number Preparing Stage 2 Monitoring Plans B Percent Preparing Monitoring Plans C= B/A Surface Water and Mixed CWSs <100 100-499 500-999 1,000-3,299 3,300-9,999 10,000-49,999 50,000-99,999 100,000-999,999 > 1,000,000 National Totals Disinfecting Ground Water On <100 100-499 500-999 1,000-3,299 3,300-9,999 10,000-49,999 50,000-99,999 100,000-999,999 > 1,000,000 National Totals - - yCWSs 354 439 86 104 47 10 1 2 0 1,042 354 439 86 104 47 10 1 2 0 1,042 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Surface Water and Mixed NTNCWSs <100 100-499 500-999 1,000-3,299 3,300-9,999 10,000-49,999 50,000-99,999 100,000-999,999 > 1,000,000 National Totals - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Disinfecting Ground Water Only NTNCWSs <100 100-499 500-999 1,000-3,299 3,300-9,999 10,000-49,999 50,000-99,999 100,000-999,999 > 1,000,000 National Totals Grand Totals 669 572 184 77 7 1 0 0 1,510 2,552 669 572 184 77 7 1 0 0 1,510 2,552 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 0% Number Performing Additional Routine Monitoring D Percent Performing Additional Routine Monitoring E - 354 439 86 104 47 10 1 2 0 1,042 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 669 572 184 77 7 1 0 0 1,510 2,552 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 0% Notes: Detail may not add to totals due to independent rounding. Non-treatment-Related Rule Activities, in addition to those shown in the table, also include routine compliance monitoring. Some systems are expected to take more samples and some are expected to take less from Stage 1 to Stage 2 depending on the number of plants in their systems. Overall, the Stage 2 DBPR results in an increase in the total number of compliance samples taken from the Stage 1 DBPR. See Exhibit H.8a for column I, for the change in total samples for different system size categories. Source: Derived by multiplying results in H.12b by the baseline adjustment matrix in H.14. Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR H-38 December 2005 ------- Exhibit H.16 Non-Treatment Cost Summary, Standard Nine Size Categories System Size (Population Served) Implementation A IDSE B Stage 2 Monitoring Plans C Additional Routine Monitoring D Operational Evaluations E Surface Water and Mixed CWSs <100 100-499 500-999 1,000-3,299 3,300-9,999 10,000-49,999 50,000-99,999 100,000-999,999 > 1,000, 000 National Totals $ 244,635 $ 498,740 $ 363,678 $ 640,272 $ 623,055 $ 1,212,306 $ 239,846 $ 212,143 $ 15,227 $ 4,049,902 $ 447,582 $ 912,489 $ 3,140,721 $ 5,529,388 $ 8,379,826 $ 17,851,398 $ 6,426,075 $ 6,113,574 $ 731,365 $ 49,532,418 $ 76,408 $ 155,774 $ 181,839 $ 320,136 $ 258,721 $ 461,867 $ 93,524 $ 93,984 $ 11,566 $ 1,653,819 $ (52,103) $ (106,222) $ (331,698) $ (583,969) $ 953,611 $ (2,477,619) $ 216,219 $ 276,429 $ 36,517 $ (2,068,834) $ 534 $ 1,089 $ 3,011 $ 5,301 $ 20,870 $ 98,959 $ 39,199 $ 38,699 $ 5,076 $ 212,739 Disinfecting Ground Water Only CWSs <100 100-499 500-999 1,000-3,299 3,300-9,999 10,000-49,999 50,000-99,999 100,000-999,999 > 1,000,000 National Totals $ 1,596,365 $ 1,975,736 $ 894,469 $ 1,085,531 $ 492,179 $ 797,681 $ 88,492 $ 46,421 $ 2,180 $ 6,979,054 $ 221,266 $ 273,849 $ 1,931,945 $ 2,344,617 $ 1,063,047 $ 1,642,671 $ 182,233 $ 166,938 $ 5,964 $ 7,832,529 $ 77,140 $ 95,472 $ 507,572 $ 615,991 $ 279,290 $ 320,895 $ 35,599 $ 30,689 $ 1,868 $ 1,964,515 $ 96,758 $ 119,753 $ 553,626 $ 671,883 $ 304,631 $ 117,333 $ 13,017 $ (92,140) $ (25,261) $ 1,759,600 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Surface Water and Mixed NTNCWSs <100 100-499 500-999 1,000-3,299 3,300-9,999 10,000-49,999 50,000-99,999 100,000-999,999 > 1,000, 000 National Totals $ 46,558 $ 63,891 $ 23,602 $ 20,707 $ 6,591 $ 3,263 $ $ 740 $ $ 165,353 $ $ $ $ $ $ 46,876 $ $ 23,725 $ $ 70,601 $ $ $ 5,245 $ 4,602 $ 1,216 $ 1,303 $ $ 313 $ $ 12,678 $ $ $ $ $ 25,473 $ $ $ 3,860 $ $ 29,333 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Disinfecting Ground Water Only NTNCWSs <100 100-499 500-999 1,000-3,299 3,300-9,999 10,000-49,999 50,000-99,999 100,000-999,999 > 1,000, 000 National Totals Grand Totals $ 498,070 $ 425,353 $ 131,289 $ 55,048 $ 4,781 $ 2,082 $ 189 $ 215 $ $ 1,117,027 $ 12,311,336 $ $ $ $ $ $ 855 $ 78 $ $ $ 932 $ 57,436,480 $ 74,304 $ 63,456 $ 51,924 $ 21,771 $ 1,891 $ 1,143 $ 104 $ 192 $ $ 214,785 $ 3,845,797 $ 175,519 $ 149,893 $ 253,333 $ 106,220 $ 9,226 $ 13,563 $ 1,233 $ 2,085 $ $ 711,072 $ 431,171 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 212,739 Notes: Detail may not add to totals due to independent rounding. Costs for Stage 2 monitoring plans and additional routine monitoring include those costs for systems that are projected to add disinfection to comply with the GWR. Source: Derived by multiplying results in H.12 by the baseline adjustment matrix in H.14. Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR H-39 December 2005 ------- H.8 Cost & Burden Estimates for States/Primacy Agency Action To estimate State/Primacy Agency costs, the estimated number of full-time equivalents (FTEs) required per activity is multiplied by the number of labor hours per FTE, the State/Primacy Agency hourly wage, and the number of States/Primacy Agencies. EPA estimated the number of FTEs required per activity based on experience implementing previous rules, such as the Stage 1 DBPR. The number of States/Primacy Agencies is the sum of the 50 States, six territories, and one tribal government (57 total). Labor costs attributable to States for administrative tasks are based on an average annual FTE labor cost, including overhead and fringe benefits, of $65,255 (2001$). This rate was established based on data from the 2001 State Drinking Water Needs Analysis (ASDWA 2001). For use in the Stage 2 EA analyses, the $65,255 annual rate was updated to a year 2003 price level ($70,132) using the ECI and converted to an hourly basis (1 FTE = 2,080 hours) to establish a State rate of $33.60 per hour. Implementation Activities States/Primacy Agencies incur labor costs for adopting the regulation and developing a program for implementation, providing initial public notification, training State staff, training PWS staff, providing technical assistance, and updating their data management systems. Exhibit H. 17 presents the calculations and estimated costs and burden for these activities. Note that this EA does not include initial State costs for laboratory certification because EPA assumes that these activities occurred under the Stage 1 DBPR and were captured in the Stage 1 DBPR Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA) (USEPA 1998a). IDSE Activities for States/Primacy Agencies States/Primacy Agencies will also incur costs as a result of the IDSE. EPA estimated the number of FTEs required per activity based on experience with previous rules, such as the Stage 1 DBPR. States/Primacy Agencies are expected to work with the small systems that conduct IDSEs to review data and make compliance determinations. State/Primacy Agency activities include analyzing IDSE reports and approving new or revised monitoring sites, responding to PWSs, and keeping records. All the costs for the IDSE activities were conservatively attributed to States/Primacy Agencies although it is possible that some of them may not have primacy before the IDSEs begin. Exhibit H.I 8 shows the calculations and estimated costs and burden associated with the IDSE for States/Primacy Agencies. Because systems receiving the very small system waivers do not have to submit an IDSE report, EPA assumes that minimal state time will be needed for these systems. Monitoring Plans States/Primacy Agencies will incur costs to review the monitoring plans. States/Primacy Agencies are expected to review the monitoring plans for PWSs and approve them. States will only have to review monitoring plans for subpart H systems serving more than 3,300 people. EPA estimated the effort at four hours per monitoring plan for small systems and 8 hours for large systems, based on experience with previous rules, such as the Stage 1 DBPR. Exhibit H. 19 shows the calculations and estimated costs and burden associated with the IDSE for States/Primacy Agencies. Additional Routine Monitoring for States/Primacy Agencies States/Primacy Agencies will incur costs to review and monitor PWSs' routine monitoring for TTHM and HAA5. States/Primacy Agencies are expected to incur costs for tracking PWS monitoring data and updating records. EPA estimated that 0.40 FTE's will be needed per State/Primacy agency for this activity, which is equivalent to 832 hours per State/Primacy Agency or 47,424 hours total (57x832). Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR H-40 December 2005 ------- Operational Evaluations States/Primacy Agencies will incur costs to review operational evaluations made by PWSs. It is estimated that States/Primacy Agencies will use 1 hour to review each report and consult with the PWS. Exhibit H.20 shows estimated costs and burdens for operational evaluations for States/Primacy Agencies. Summary Exhibit H.21 shows a summary of all State/Primacy Agency costs. Exhibit H.17 State/Primacy Agency Costs for Implementation and Additional Routine Monitoring Activities Cost per Labor Hour A FTEs per State B Hours per State C=B*2,080 Cost per State D=A*C National Total FTEs E=B*57 National Total Hours F=C*57 National Total Cost G=D*57 Implementation Activities Public Notification | Regulation Adoption and Program Development Training State Staff Training PWS Staff and Technical Assistants Updating Data Management System Totals $ 33.60 $ 33.60 $ 33.60 $ 33.60 $ 33.60 0.10 0.50 0.25 1.00 0.10 1.95 208 1,040 520 2,080 208 4,056 $ 6,989 $ 34,944 $ 17,472 $ 69,888 $ 6,989 $ 136,282 5.70 28.50 14.25 57.00 5.70 111 11,856 59,280 29,640 118,560 11,856 231,192 $ 398,362 $ 1,991,808 $ 995,904 $ 3,983,616 $ 398,362 $ 7,768,051 Additional Routine Monitoring Activities Recordkeeping and Compliance Tracking Totals Grand Totals $ 33.60 0.40 0.40 2.35 832 832 4,888 $ 27,955 $ 27,955 164,237 22.80 22.80 134 47,424 47,424 278,616 $ 1,593,446 $ 1,593,446 9,361,498 Notes: All states/primacy agencies are assumed to incur some costs for each activity. Sources: (A) State labor rates based on the State Workload Model, updated to year 2003 dollar values. (B) FTEs per State/Primacy Agency based on EPA experience with previous regulations. Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR H-41 December 2005 ------- Exhibit H.18 State/Primacy Agency Costs for the IDSE Size Category Number of Systems Conducting IDSE, by Category Standard Monitoring A System- Specific Study B 40/30 Certification C Number of Hours to Work with Systems on IDSE and Review I DSE Reports Standard Monitoring D System- Specific Study E 40/30 Certification F Average State Employee Hourly Wage G Average Total Costs to States H = la " (A*D+B*E+C*F) Average Total Costs per State I = H / 57 Total Burden J = A"U + B*E + C*F Average Burden/ State K = J/57 Surface Water and Mixed CWSs <500 500-3,300 3,301-9,999 10,000-49,999 50,000-249,999 250,000-999,999 1,000,000-4,999,999 >5M National Totals 2,060 3,823 1,888 1,524 436 63 14 1 9,809 0 0 0 0 23 7 1 0 31 0 235 154 249 75 11 2 0 726 4 4 4 8 8 10 12 12 4 4 4 8 8 12 16 16 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 $ 33.60 $ 33.60 $ 33.60 $ 33.60 $ 33.60 $ 33.60 $ 33.60 $ 33.60 $ 276,802 $ 517,759 $ 256,334 $ 413,834 $ 124,639 $ 24,175 $ 6,216 $ 403 $ 1,620,164 $ 4,856 $ 9,083 $ 4,497 $ 7,260 $ 2,187 $ 424 $ 109 $ 7 $ 28,424 8238.16 15409.5 7629 12316.5 3709.5 719.5 185 12 48,219 144.5 270.3 133.8 216.1 65.1 12.6 3.2 0.2 846.0 Ground Water Only CWSs <500 500-9,999 10,000-99,999 100,000-499,999 > 500,000 National Totals 752 1,956 240 18 1 2,966 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 9,094 1,118 40 5 10,257 4 4 8 8 12 4 4 8 8 16 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 $ 33.60 $ 33.60 $ 33.60 $ 33.60 $ 33.60 $ 101,004 $ 415,609 $ 83,226 $ 5,995 $ 443 $ 606,278 $ 1,772 $ 7,291 $ 1,460 $ 105 $ 8 $ 10,636 3,006 12,369 2,477 178 13 18,044 52.7 217.0 43.5 3.1 0.2 316.6 Surface Water and Mixed NTNCWSs <500 500-3,300 3,301-9,999 10,000-49,999 50,000-249,999 250,000-999,999 1,000,000-4,999,999 >5M National Totals 4 1 0 0 0 5 - - 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 8 8 10 12 12 - - 8 8 12 16 16 - - 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Disinfecting Ground Water Only NTNCWSs <500 500-9,999 10,000-99,999 100,000-499,999 > 500,000 National Totals Grand Totals 1 0 0 1 12,780 - 0 0 0 0 33 3 0 0 3 10,987 8 8 12 8 8 16 - 0.5 0.5 0.5 - - $ 33.60 $ 33.60 $ 33.60 $ 33.60 $ 33.60 - - $ 1,092 $ 269 $ $ $ $ 1,361 - - $ 19 $ 5 $ $ $ $ 24 - $ 33.60 $ 33.60 $ 33.60 - $ 214 $ 78 $ $ 292 $ 2,228,095 - $ 4 $ 1 $ $ 5 $ 39,089 - - 33 8 0 0 0 41 - - 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 - 6 2 0 9 66,312 - 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1,163.4 Sources: (A, B, C) From columns E, F, and G in Exhibits H.3a and H.3b. (D, E, F) From EPA experience with other regulations. Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR H-42 December 2005 ------- Exhibit H.19 State/Primacy Agency Monitoring Plan Costs Size Category Number of Systems Conducting Monitoring Plan, by Category A Number of Hours to Review Monitoring Plans per System B Average State Employee Hourly Wage C Average Total Costs to States D = A*B*C Average Total Costs per State E = D/57 Total Burden F = A*B Surface Water and Mixed CWSs <500 500-3,300 3,301-9,999 10,000-49,999 50,000-249,999 250,000-999,999 1,000,000-4,999,999 >5M National Totals 2,060 4,058 2,042 1,773 534 81 17 1 10,566 0 0 4 8 8 8 8 8 - $ 33.60 $ 33.60 $ 33.60 $ 33.60 $ 33.60 $ 33.60 $ 33.60 $ 33.60 - $ $ $ 274,445 $ 476,582 $ 143,539 $ 21 ,773 $ 4,570 $ 269 $ 921,178 $ $ $ 4,815 $ 8,361 $ 2,518 $ 382 $ 80 $ 5 $ 16,161 0 0 8,168 14,184 4,272 648 136 8 27,416 Ground Water Only CWSs <500 500-9,999 10,000-99,999 100,000-499,999 > 500,000 National Totals 1,544 11,286 1,368 61 6 14,267 0 0 0 0 0 - $ 33.60 $ 33.60 $ 33.60 $ 33.60 $ 33.60 - $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 0 0 0 0 0 0 Surface Water and Mixed NTNCWSs <500 500-3,300 3,301-9,999 10,000-49,999 50,000-249,999 250,000-999,999 1,000,000-4,999,999 >5M National Totals 0 0 24 5 1 0 0 0 30 0 0 4 8 8 8 8 8 - $ 33.60 $ 33.60 $ 33.60 $ 33.60 $ 33.60 $ 33.60 $ 33.60 $ 33.60 - $ $ $ 3,226 $ 1 ,344 $ 269 $ $ $ $ 4,838 $ $ $ 57 $ 24 $ 5 $ $ $ $ 85 0 0 96 40 8 0 0 0 48 Disinfecting Ground Water Only NTNCWSs <500 500-9,999 10,000-99,999 100,000-499,999 > 500,000 National Totals Grand Totals 1,241 268 5 0 0 1,514 26,376 0 0 0 0 0 - - $ 33.60 $ 33.60 $ 33.60 $ 33.60 $ 33.60 - - $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 926,016 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 16,246 0 0 0 0 0 0 27,464 Notes: Sources: (A) From columns A, B, and C in Exhibit H.7 (B) From EPA experience with other regulations. (C) State labor rates based on the State Workload Model, updated to year 2003 dollar values. Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR H-43 December 2005 ------- Exhibit H.20 State/Primacy Agency Operational Evaluation Costs Size Category Number of times Operational Evaluation Levels are exceeded per Year A Number of Hours to Review Operational Evaluations per System B Average State Employee Hourly Wage C Average Total Costs to States D = A*B*C Average Total Costs per State E = D/57 Total Burden F = A*B Surface Water and Mixed CWSs <500 500-3,300 3,301-9,999 10,000-49,999 50,000-249,999 250,000-999,999 1 ,000,000-4,999,999 >5M National Totals 12 28 57 199 120 27 8 1 452 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 - $ 33.60 $ 33.60 $ 33.60 $ 33.60 $ 33.60 $ 33.60 $ 33.60 $ 33.60 - $ 1,613 $ 5,645 $ 11,491 $ 53,491 $ 32,256 $ 7,258 $ 2,150 $ 269 $ 114,173 $ 28 $ 99 $ 202 $ 938 $ 566 $ 127 $ 38 $ 5 $ 2,003 48 168 342 1,592 960 216 64 8 3,398 Ground Water Only CWSs <500 500-9,999 10,000-99,999 100,000-499,999 > 500,000 National Totals 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 6 8 8 8 - $ 33.60 $ 33.60 $ 33.60 $ 33.60 $ 33.60 - $ $ $ $ $ $ - $ $ $ $ $ 0 0 0 0 0 0 Surface Water and Mixed NTNCWSs <500 500-3,300 3,301-9,999 10,000-49,999 50,000-249,999 250,000-999,999 1 ,000,000-4,999,999 >5M National Totals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 - $ 33.60 $ 33.60 $ 33.60 $ 33.60 $ 33.60 $ 33.60 $ 33.60 $ 33.60 - $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ - $ $ $ $ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Disinfecting Ground Water Only NTNCWSs <500 500-9,999 10,000-99,999 100,000-499,999 > 500,000 National Totals Grand Totals 0 0 0 0 0 0 452 4 6 8 8 8 - - $ 33.60 $ 33.60 $ 33.60 $ 33.60 $ 33.60 - - $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 114,173 - - $ $ $ $ $ 2,003 0 0 0 0 0 0 3,398 Sources: (A) From column D in Exhibit H.10 (B) From EPA experience with other regulations. (C) State labor rates based on the State Workload Model, updated to year 2003 dollar values. Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR H-44 December 2005 ------- Exhibit H.21 State/Primacy Agency Cost Summary Total Hours A Average Hours per State B = A/57 Cost/ Labor Hour C Total Cost D Cost per State E = D/57 Implementation Activities Public Notification Regulation Adoption and Program Development Training State Staff Training PWS Staff and Technical Assistants Updating Data Management System Subtotal 1 1 ,856 59,280 29,640 118,560 1 1 ,856 231,192 208 1,040 520 2,080 208 4,056 $ 33.60 $ 33.60 $ 33.60 $ 33.60 $ 33.60 $ 398,362 $ 1,991,808 $ 995,904 $ 3,983,616 $ 398,362 $ 7,768,051 $ 6,989 $ 34,944 $ 17,472 $ 69,888 $ 6,989 $ 136,282 Monitoring Plan Activities Monitoring Plans 27,464 482 $ 33.60 $ 926,016 $ 16,246 IDSE Activities IDSE Monitoring 66,312 1,163 $ 33.60 $ 2,228,095 $ 39,089 Additional Routine Monitoring Activities Recordkeeping and Compliance Tracking Operational Evaluation Costs Subtotal Grand Totals 47,424 3,398 50,822 375,790 832 60 892 6,593 $ 33.60 $ 33.60 $ 1,593,446 $ 114,173 $ 1,707,619 $ 12,629,781 $ 27,955 $ 2,003 $ 29,958 $ 221,575 Notes: All states/primacy agencies are assumed to incur some costs for each activity. Sources: (A) Exhibits H.17 to H.20. (B) Exhibits H.17 to H.20. (C) State labor rates based on the State Workload Model, updated to year 2003 dollar values. Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR H-45 December 2005 ------- |