Appendices to the EconomicAnalysis for the Final Stage 2Disinfectants and DisinfectionByproducts RuleVolume II (F-H),


Appendices to the Economic
Analysis for the Final Stage 2
Disinfectants and Disinfection
Byproducts Rule
Volume II (F-H)

-------
Office of Water (4606-M)  EPA 815-R-05-010   December 2005   www.epa.gov/safewater

-------
          Appendix F
Valuation of Stage 2 DBPR Benefits

-------

-------
                                                   Matrix of Appendix F Contents
Applicable
Rule
Alternatlve(s)
All
Alternatives
Preferred
Alternative
Applicable
DBP(s)
TTHM
&
HAAS
TTHM
Non-fatal Case
Valuation
All
All
All
All
All
All
Non-Fatal
Lymphoma
Chronic
Bronchitis
Exhibit Description
Valuation Inputs
CPI Projections
Income Elasticity Inputs
Population, GDP, & Income Projections
Income Elasticity Factors
Valuation Factors
Valuation of Cases Avoided
Present Value of Benefits at 3% Discount Rate
Present Value of Benefits at 7% Discount Rate
Present Value of Benefits at 3% Discount Rate by Small
and Large Size Categroies
Present Value of Benefits at 7% Discount Rate by Small
and Large Size Categroies
Present Value of Benefits at 3% Discount Rate by Small
and Large Size Categroies
Present Value of Benefits at 7% Discount Rate by Small
and Large Size Categroies
Present Value of Benefits at 3% by System Size
Present Value of Benefits at 7% by System Size
Valuation of Cases Avoided
Present Value of Benefits at 3% Discount Rate
Present Value of Benefits at 7% Discount Rate
Present Value of Benefits at 3% Discount Rate by Small
and Large Size Categroies
Present Value of Benefits at 7% Discount Rate by Small
and Large Size Categroies
Present Value of Benefits at 3% Discount Rate by Small
and Large Size Categroies
Present Value of Benefits at 7% Discount Rate by Small
and Large Size Categroies
Present Value of Benefits at 3% by System Size
Present Value of Benefits at 7% by System Size
Applicable Source Water
Type(s)
All
All
All
All
All
All
Surface
Ground
All
All
All
Surface
Ground
All
All
Surface
Ground
All
All
All
Surface
Ground
All
All
Applicable
System Size
All
All
All
All
All
All
<100
101-500
501-1,000
1,001-3,300
3.301-10K
10,001 -50K
50,001-100K
100,001-1 M
>1 Million
All
<100
101-500
501-1,000
1,001-3,300
3.301-10K
10.001-50K
50,001 -100K
100,001-1 M
>1 Million
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
<100
101-500
501-1,000
1,001-3,300
3.301-10K
10,001 -50K
50.001-100K
100,001-1 M
>1 Million
All
<100
101-500
501-1,000
1,001-3,300
3.301-10K
10,001 -50K
50.001-100K
100,001-1 M
>1 Million
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
Exhibit
Number
F.1a
F.1b
F.1c
F.1d
F.1e
F.1f
F.2a
F.2b
F.2c
F.2d
F.2e
F.2f
F.2g
F.2h
F.2i
F.2J
F.2k
F.2I
F.2m
F.2n
F.2o
F.2p
F.2q
F.2r
F.2s
F.2t
F.2u
F.2v
F.2w
F.2x
F.2y
F.2z
F.2aa
F.2ab
F.2ac
F.3a
F.3b
F.3c
F.3d
F.3e
F.3f
F.3g
F.3h
F.3i
F.3J
F.3k
F.3I
F.3m
F.3n
F.3o
F.3p
F.3q
F.3r
F.3s
F.3t
F.3u
F.3v
F.3w
F.3x
F.3y
F.3z
F.3aa
F.3ab
F.3ac
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
                                                                                                                      December 2005

-------
                                               Matrix of Appendix F Contents (cont.)
Applicable
Rule
Alternatlve(s)
Preferred
Alternative
Alternative 1
Alternative 2
Alternative 3
Colon Cancer
Sensitivity
Analysis
Rectal Cancer
Sensitivity
Analysis
Applicable
DBP(s)
HAAS
TTHM
TTHM
TTHM
TTHM
TTHM
Non-fatal Case
Valuation
Non-Fatal
Lymphoma
Chronic
Bronchitis
Non-Fatal
Lymphoma
Chronic
Bronchitis
Non-Fatal
Lymphoma
Chronic
Bronchitis
Non-Fatal
Lymphoma
Chronic
Bronchitis
Non-Fatal
Lymphoma
Chronic
Bronchitis
Non-Fatal
Lymphoma
Chronic
Bronchitis
Exhibit Description
Valuation of Cases Avoided
Present Value of Benefits at 3% Discount Rate
Present Value of Benefits at 7% Discount Rate
Present Value of Benefits at 3% by System Size
Present Value of Benefits at 7% by System Size
Valuation of Cases Avoided
Present Value of Benefits at 3% Discount Rate
Present Value of Benefits at 7% Discount Rate
Present Value of Benefits at 3% by System Size
Present Value of Benefits at 7% by System Size
Valuation of Cases Avoided
Present Value of Benefits at 3% & 7% Discount Rate
Present Value of Benefits at 3% by System Size
Present Value of Benefits at 7% by System Size
Valuation of Cases Avoided
Present Value of Benefits at 3% & 7% Discount Rate
Present Value of Benefits at 3% by System Size
Present Value of Benefits at 7% by System Size
Valuation of Cases Avoided
Present Value of Benefits at 3% & 7% Discount Rate
Present Value of Benefits at 3% by System Size
Present Value of Benefits at 7% by System Size
Valuation of Cases Avoided
Present Value of Benefits at 3% & 7% Discount Rate
Present Value of Benefits at 3% by System Size
Present Value of Benefits at 7% by System Size
Valuation of Cases Avoided
Present Value of Benefits at 3% & 7% Discount Rate
Present Value of Benefits at 3% by System Size
Present Value of Benefits at 7% by System Size
Valuation of Cases Avoided
Present Value of Benefits at 3% & 7% Discount Rate
Present Value of Benefits at 3% by System Size
Present Value of Benefits at 7% by System Size
Valuation of Cases Avoided
Present Value of Benefits at 3% & 7% Discount Rate
Present Value of Benefits at 3% by System Size
Present Value of Benefits at 7% by System Size
Valuation of Cases Avoided
Present Value of Benefits at 3% & 7% Discount Rate
Present Value of Benefits at 3% by System Size
Present Value of Benefits at 7% by System Size
Valuation of Cases Avoided
Present Value of Benefits at 3% & 7% Discount Rate
Present Value of Benefits at 3% by System Size
Present Value of Benefits at 7% by System Size
Valuation of Cases Avoided
Present Value of Benefits at 3% & 7% Discount Rate
Present Value of Benefits at 3% by System Size
Present Value of Benefits at 7% by System Size
Applicable Source Water
Type(s)
Surface
Ground
All
All
All
All
All
Surface
Ground
All
All
All
All
All
Surface, Ground, & All
All
All
All
Surface, Ground, & All
All
All
All
Surface, Ground, & All
All
All
All
Surface, Ground, & All
All
All
All
Surface, Ground, & All
All
All
All
Surface, Ground, & All
All
All
All
Surface, Ground, & All
All
All
All
Surface, Ground, & All
All
All
All
Surface, Ground, & All
All
All
All
Surface, Ground, & All
All
All
All
Applicable
System Size
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
Exhibit
Number
F.4a
F.4b
F.4c
F.4d
F.4e
F.4f
F.4g
F.5a
F.5b
F.5c
F.5d
F.5e
F.5f
F.5g
F.6a
F.6b
F.6c
F.6d
F.7a
F.7b
F.7c
F.7d
F.8a
F.8b
F.8c
F.8d
F.9a
F.9b
F.9c
F.9d
F.10a
F.10b
F.10c
F.10d
F.11a
F.11b
F.11c
F.11d
F.12a
F.12b
F.12c
F.12d
F.13a
F.13b
F.13c
F.13d
F.14a
F.14b
F.14c
F.14d
F.15a
F.15b
F.15c
F.15d
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
                                                                                                                      December 2005

-------
                                                   Matrix of Appendix F Contents (cont.)
Preferred
Alternative, ICR
Matrix Method
Preferred
Alternative,
SWAT Method
TTHM
TTHM
Non-Fatal
Lymphoma
Non-Fatal
Lymphoma
Valuation of Cases Avoided
Present Value of Benefits at 3% Discount Rate
Present Value of Benefits at 7% Discount Rate
Present Value of Benefits at 3% Discount Rate by Small
and Large Size Categroies
Present Value of Benefits at 7% Discount Rate by Small
Present Value of Benefits at 3% Discount Rate by Small
and Large Size Categroies
Present Value of Benefits at 7% Discount Rate by Small
and Large Size Categroies
Present Value of Benefits at 3% by System Size
Present Value of Benefits at 7% by System Size
Valuation of Cases Avoided
Present Value of Benefits at 3% Discount Rate
Present Value of Benefits at 7% Discount Rate
Present Value of Benefits at 3% Discount Rate by Small
and Large Size Categroies
Present Value of Benefits at 7% Discount Rate by Small
Present Value of Benefits at 3% Discount Rate by Small
and Large Size Categroies
Present Value of Benefits at 7% Discount Rate by Small
and Large Size Categroies
Present Value of Benefits at 3% by System Size
Present Value of Benefits at 7% by System Size
Surface
Ground
All
All
All
Surface
Ground
All
All
Surface
Ground
All
All
All
Surface
Ground
All
All
<100
101-500
501-1,000
1,001-3,300
3.301-10K
10,001 -50K
50,001-100K
100,001-1 M
>1 Million
All
<100
101-500
501-1,000
1,001-3,300
3.301-10K
10,001 -50K
50,001-100K
100,001-1 M
>1 Million
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
<100
101-500
501-1,000
1,001-3,300
3.301-10K
10,001 -50K
50,001-100K
100,001-1 M
>1 Million
All
<100
101-500
501-1,000
1,001-3,300
3.301-10K
10,001 -50K
50,001-100K
100,001-1 M
>1 Million
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
F.20a
F.20b
F.20c
F.20d
F.20e
F.20f
F.20g
F.20h
F.20I
F.20i
F.20k
F.20I
F.20m
F.20n
F.20o
F.20p
F.20g
F.20r
F.20s
F.20t
F.20u
F.20v
F.20w
F.20x
F.20y
F.20z
F.20aa
F.20ab
F.20ac
F.21a
F.21b
F.21c
F.21d
F.21e
F.21f
F.21g
F.21h
F.21I
F.21J
F.21k
F.21I
F.21m
F.21n
F.21o
F.21p
F.21g
F.21r
F.21s
F.21t
F.21u
F.21v
F.21w
F.21x
F.21y
F.21z
F.21aa
F.21ab
F.21ac
    Note: To minimize the size of this appendix, only summary spreadsheets are presented to outline the computational approach used for the Stage 2 DBPR benefits
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
                                                                                                                                 December 2005

-------
   Section F.1
Input Parameters

-------

-------
                             Exhibit F.1a  Description of Valuation Parameters

      VSL

      Dist. Type             Weibull
      Parameters              Loc: 0
                             Scale: 5.32
                            Shape: 1.509588
      Simulation Mean   $     4.80 Million (1990$)
      Source: Distribution adapted from The Benefits and Costs of the Clean Air Act, 1970-1990 (USEPA, 1997b), as derived
      from Viscusietal. (1991)

      WTP:  Non-Fatal Cases - Non-Fatal Lymphoma

      Percent of VSL          58.3%
      Simulation Mean   $     2.80 Million (1990$)
      Note: Value derived as a forecast based on the VSL distribution above.
      Source: Percent of VSL derived as ratio of median risk tradeoff values reported in Magat et al. (1996)

      WTP:  Non-Fatal Cases - Chronic Bronchitis
Dist. Type
Parameters



Lognormal
Mean:
Median:
Std Dev:
Max:

$
$
$
$

587,500
535,600
264,826
1,500,000
      Simulation Mean   $     0.58 Million (1998$)
      Note: Distribution correlated to the VSL distribution in the Monte Carlo analysis.
      Source: Stage 1 DBPR RIA (USEPA, 1998a), as derived from Viscusi et al. (1991)
      Morbidity Increment

      Point Estimate     $  93,927 (1996$)
      Source: Cost of Illness Handbook (USEPA, 1999a)
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR                                                December 2005

-------
                                              Exhibit F.1b  CPI Projections



Year
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
CPI -All Items
CPI
(Annual
Average)
130.7
136.2
140.3
144.5
148.2
152.4
156.9
160.5
163.0
166.6
172.2
177.1
179.9
184.0

Percent
Change
-
4.2%
3.0%
3.0%
2.6%
2.8%
3.0%
2.3%
1.6%
2.2%
3.4%
2.9%
1.6%
2.3%
Adjustment
Factor
(1990 base)
1.00
1.04
1.07
1.11
1.13
1.17
1.20
1.23
1.25
1.27
1.32
1.36
1.38
1.41
Adjustment
Factor
(1998 base)
0.80
0.84
0.86
0.89
0.91
0.93
0.96
0.98
1.00
1.02
1.06
1.09
1.11
1.13
CPI - Medical Care
CPI
(Annual
Average)
162.8
177.0
190.1
201.4
211.0
220.5
228.2
234.6
242.1
250.6
260.8
272.8
285.6
297.1

Percent
Change
-
8.7%
7.4%
5.9%
4.8%
4.5%
3.5%
2.8%
3.2%
3.5%
4.1%
4.6%
4.7%
4.0%
Adjustment
Factor
(1996 base)
0.71
0.78
0.83
0.88
0.92
0.97
1.00
1.03
1.06
1.10
1.14
1.20
1.25
1.30
   Notes:  1990 base factors (all items) used to update VSL and non-fatal lymphoma WTP values.
          1998 base factors (all items) used to update chronic bronchitis WTP values (used in sensitivity analysis only).
          1996 base factors (medical care) used to update morbidity increment values.
 Source:  1990-2003 CPI values from Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
                                Exhibit F.1c Description of Elasticity Parameters
        Income Elasticity - Fatal Cancer Cases
Central Estimate
Low End
High End
Dist. Type
Distribution Mean
Income Elasticity
Central Estimate
Low End
High End
Dist. Type
Distribution Mean
0.40
0.08
1.00
Triangular
0.49
- Non-Fatal Cancer Cases
0.45
0.25
0.60
Triangular
0.43
        Note: Distributions are correlated in the Monte Carlo analysis.
        Source: Kleckner and Neumann (2000)
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR                                               December 2005

-------
                     Exhibit F.1d Population, GDP, and Per Capita Income Projections
Year
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Population
Estimates/
Projections
(Thousands)
249,439
252,127
254,995
257,746
260,289
262,765
265,190
267,744
270,299
272,820
275,306
277,803
280,306
282,798
285,266
287,716
290,153
292,583
295,009
297,436
299,862
302,300
304,764
307,250
309,753
312,268
314,793
317,325
319,860
322,395
324,927
327,468
330,028
332,607
335,202
337,815
340,441
343,078
345,735
348,391
Percent
Change
-
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1 .0%
1 .0%
0.9%
1 .0%
1 .0%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
Real GDP
Projection
(Billions
Chained 2000$)
7,112.5
7,100.5
7,336.6
7,532.7
7,835.5
8,031.7
8,328.9
8,703.5
9,066.9
9,470.3
9,817.0
9,866.6
10,083.0
10,398.0
10,730.7
11,245.8
11,718.1
12,093.1
12,419.6
12,767.4
13,124.9
13,466.1
13,802.8
14,147.8
14,501.5
14,864.1
15,235.7
15,616.6
16,007.0
16,407.2
16,817.3
17,237.8
17,668.7
18,110.4
18,563.2
19,027.3
19,502.9
19,990.5
20,490.3
21,002.5
Percent
Change
-
-0.2%
3.3%
2.7%
4.0%
2.5%
3.7%
4.5%
4.2%
4.4%
3.7%
0.5%
2.2%
3.1%
3.2%
4.8%
4.2%
3.2%
2.7%
2.8%
2.8%
2.6%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
Income
(Real GDP per Capita)
Projection
(Thousands
2000$)
28,514
28,162
28,772
29,225
30,103
30,566
31,407
32,507
33,544
34,713
35,659
35,517
35,971
36,768
37,617
39,086
40,386
41,332
42,099
42,925
43,770
44,546
45,290
46,047
46,816
47,600
48,399
49,213
50,044
50,891
51,757
52,640
53,537
54,450
55,379
56,325
57,287
58,268
59,266
60,284
Percent
Change
-
-1 .2%
2.2%
1 .6%
3.0%
1 .5%
2.8%
3.5%
3.2%
3.5%
2.7%
-0.4%
1 .3%
2.2%
2.3%
3.9%
3.3%
2.3%
1 .9%
2.0%
2.0%
1 .8%
1 .7%
1 .7%
1 .7%
1 .7%
1 .7%
1 .7%
1 .7%
1 .7%
1 .7%
1 .7%
1 .7%
1 .7%
1 .7%
1 .7%
1 .7%
1 .7%
1 .7%
1 .7%
       Source:   Population projections from US Census Bureau (NP-T1: Middle Series).
                1990-2000 real GDP from Bureau of Economic Analysis, all other years calculated based on percent change
                projections from Congressional Budget Office (January 23, 2002). Projections for years beyond 2012 based on
                percent change reported for 2012 due to lack of other data.
                Income (Real GDP per Capita)=Real GDP/Population
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
              Exhibit F.1e  Factors for Incorporation of Income Elasticity into Yearly Benefits Estimates
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Factors for Fatal Cancer Cases
Mean
Value
1.160
1.174
1.188
1.202
1.215
1.229
1.242
1.256
1.270
1.284
1.299
1.313
1.328
1.342
1.357
1.372
1.388
1.403
1.419
1.434
1.450
1.466
1.482
1.476
1.488
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
1.062
1.067
1.072
1.076
1.081
1.086
1.090
1.095
1.100
1.104
1.109
1.114
1.119
1.123
1.128
1.133
1.137
1.142
1.147
1.151
1.156
1.161
1.165
1.164
1.167
Upper
(95th %tile)
1.280
1.306
1.332
1.356
1.381
1.407
1.433
1.459
1.486
1.513
1.541
1.570
1.598
1.628
1.658
1.688
1.719
1.751
1.783
1.815
1.848
1.882
1.916
1.904
1.930
Factors for Non-Fatal Lymphoma Cases
Mean
Value
1.138
1.149
1.161
1.172
1.183
1.194
1.206
1.217
1.229
1.240
1.252
1.263
1.275
1.287
1.299
1.311
1.323
1.335
1.347
1.359
1.371
1.383
1.396
1.391
1.400
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
1.096
1.104
1.112
1.120
1.127
1.135
1.142
1.150
1.158
1.165
1.173
1.180
1.188
1.196
1.204
1.211
1.219
1.227
1.235
1.242
1.250
1.258
1.266
1.263
1.269
Upper
(95th %tile)
1.177
1.193
1.208
1.223
1.238
1.253
1.268
1.283
1.298
1.313
1.329
1.345
1.361
1.376
1.393
1.409
1.425
1.442
1.459
1.475
1.492
1.509
1.526
1.520
1.533
Factors for Chronic Bronchitis Cases
Mean
Value
1.063
1.074
1.085
1.096
1.106
1.117
1.128
1.139
1.150
1.161
1.172
1.183
1.194
1.206
1.217
1.229
1.240
1.252
1.264
1.276
1.288
1.300
1.312
1.307
1.316
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
1.045
1.052
1.060
1.067
1.075
1.082
1.090
1.097
1.104
1.112
1.119
1.127
1.135
1.142
1.150
1.158
1.165
1.173
1.181
1.189
1.196
1.204
1.212
1.209
1.215
Upper
(95th %tile)
1.081
1.095
1.109
1.123
1.137
1.151
1.165
1.179
1.193
1.208
1.222
1.237
1.252
1.267
1.283
1.298
1.314
1.330
1.345
1.361
1.378
1.394
1.410
1.404
1.417
 Note: Income elasticity factors calculated as [(el,- e!2-12- h) / (e!2 -el, -!2-li)]; where e=income elasticity of WTP estimate, and l=income.
 Source: Derived using elasticity distributions and per capita GDP projections from preceeding Exhibits F.lcand F.1d.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
                                                                                                                       December 2005

-------
                             Exhibit F.1f  Value of VSL, WTP, and Morbidity Increment by Year
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Fatal Cancer Cases
Morbidity
Increment
Point Estimate
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
VSL
Mean
Value
$ 7.8
$ 7.9
$ 7.9
$ 8.0
$ 8.1
$ 8.2
$ 8.3
$ 8.4
$ 8.5
$ 8.6
$ 8.7
$ 8.8
$ 8.9
$ 9.0
$ 9.1
$ 9.2
$ 9.3
$ 9.4
$ 9.5
$ 9.6
$ 9.7
$ 9.8
$ 9.9
$ 9.9
$ 10.0
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$ 1.2
$ 1.2
$ 1.2
$ 1.2
$ 1.2
$ 1.3
$ 1.3
$ 1.3
$ 1.3
$ 1.3
$ 1.3
$ 1.3
$ 1.3
$ 1.3
$ 1.4
$ 1.4
$ 1.4
$ 1.4
$ 1.4
$ 1.4
$ 1.4
$ 1.4
$ 1.5
$ 1.5
$ 1.5
Upper
(95th %tile)
$ 17.9
$ 18.1
$ 18.3
$ 18.6
$ 18.8
$ 19.0
$ 19.2
$ 19.4
$ 19.6
$ 19.9
$ 20.1
$ 20.3
$ 20.6
$ 20.9
$ 21.2
$ 21.4
$ 21.7
$ 22.0
$ 22.2
$ 22.4
$ 22.7
$ 23.0
$ 23.3
$ 23.2
$ 23.4
Non-Fatal Cancer Cases
WTP - Non-Fatal Lymphoma
Mean
Value
$ 4.4
$ 4.5
$ 4.5
$ 4.6
$ 4.6
$ 4.7
$ 4.7
$ 4.7
$ 4.8
$ 4.8
$ 4.9
$ 4.9
$ 5.0
$ 5.0
$ 5.1
$ 5.1
$ 5.2
$ 5.2
$ 5.2
$ 5.3
$ 5.3
$ 5.4
$ 5.4
$ 5.4
$ 5.5
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
Upper
(95th %tile)
$ 10.1
$ 10.2
$ 10.4
$ 10.5
$ 10.6
$ 10.7
$ 10.8
$ 10.8
$ 11.0
$ 11.1
$ 11.2
$ 11.3
$ 11.4
$ 11.5
$ 11.6
$ 11.7
$ 11.8
$ 11.9
$ 12.1
$ 12.2
$ 12.3
$ 12.4
$ 12.5
$ 12.5
$ 12.6
WTP -Chronic Bronchitis
Mean
Value
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.9
$ 0.9
$ 0.9
$ 0.9
$ 0.9
$ 0.9
$ 0.9
$ 0.9
$ 0.9
$ 0.9
$ 0.9
$ 0.9
$ 1.0
$ 1.0
$ 1.0
$ 1.0
$ 1.0
$ 1.0
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
Upper
(95th %tile)
$ 1.4
$ 1.5
$ 1.5
$ 1.5
$ 1.5
$ 1.5
$ 1.5
$ 1.6
$ 1.6
$ 1.6
$ 1.6
$ 1.6
$ 1.6
$ 1.6
$ 1.7
$ 1.7
$ 1.7
$ 1.7
$ 1.7
$ 1.7
$ 1.8
$ 1.8
$ 1.8
$ 1.8
$ 1.8
 Notes:  All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
        Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
 Source: Values derived based on valuation distributions and inflation (CPI) and income elasticity factors from Exhibits F.1a, F.1b, and F.1e.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
           Section F.2
Model Outputs - Preferred Alternative
        TTHM as Indicator
  Lymphoma for Non-Fatal Cases

-------

-------
      Exhibit F.2a  Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                             (Surface Water Systems Serving <100 People)

      TTHM - Preferred Alternative

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 3.3
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.5
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 7.5
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 2.1
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.3
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 4.9
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 3.9
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.6
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 9.1
     Notes:  All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
            Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
     Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38b, E.38f, and E.38J.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
      Exhibit F.2b  Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                            (Surface Water Systems Serving 100-499 People)

    TTHM - Preferred Alternative

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.5
$ 0.7
$ 1.0
$ 1.2
$ 1.4
$ 1.5
$ 1.7
$ 1.8
$ 1.9
$ 2.0
$ 2.1
$ 2.2
$ 2.2
$ 2.3
$ 2.4
$ 2.4
$ 2.5
$ 30.4
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 4.6
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.4
$ 0.8
$ 1.2
$ 1.7
$ 2.3
$ 2.7
$ 3.1
$ 3.5
$ 3.9
$ 4.2
$ 4.4
$ 4.6
$ 4.8
$ 5.0
$ 5.2
$ 5.4
$ 5.5
$ 5.6
$ 5.7
$ 70.2
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.7
$ 0.8
$ 0.9
$ 1.0
$ 1.0
$ 1.1
$ 1.2
$ 1.3
$ 1.3
$ 1.4
$ 1.5
$ 1.5
$ 1.6
$ 1.6
$ 1.7
$ 19.9
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 3.0
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.3
$ 0.6
$ 0.9
$ 1.2
$ 1.5
$ 1.8
$ 2.0
$ 2.2
$ 2.4
$ 2.6
$ 2.8
$ 2.9
$ 3.1
$ 3.3
$ 3.4
$ 3.6
$ 3.7
$ 3.8
$ 3.9
$ 46.0
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.3
$ 0.5
$ 0.8
$ 1.1
$ 1.4
$ 1.7
$ 1.8
$ 2.0
$ 2.1
$ 2.2
$ 2.3
$ 2.3
$ 2.4
$ 2.5
$ 2.5
$ 2.6
$ 2.6
$ 2.6
$ 2.7
$ 36.6
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 5.6
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.3
$ 0.7
$ 1.3
$ 1.9
$ 2.6
$ 3.3
$ 3.8
$ 4.2
$ 4.5
$ 4.8
$ 5.0
$ 5.2
$ 5.4
$ 5.6
$ 5.7
$ 5.8
$ 6.0
$ 6.1
$ 6.1
$ 6.2
$ 84.6
    Notes:   All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
           Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
    Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38b, E.38f, and E.38J.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
      Exhibit F.2c  Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                            (Surface Water Systems Serving 500-999 People)

    TTHM - Preferred Alternative

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.3
$ 0.6
$ 0.9
$ 1.3
$ 1.7
$ 2.1
$ 2.4
$ 2.7
$ 2.9
$ 3.2
$ 3.4
$ 3.5
$ 3.7
$ 3.8
$ 4.0
$ 4.1
$ 4.2
$ 4.2
$ 4.3
$ 53.5
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.7
$ 8.1
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.3
$ 0.8
$ 1.4
$ 2.1
$ 3.0
$ 4.0
$ 4.8
$ 5.5
$ 6.2
$ 6.8
$ 7.3
$ 7.8
$ 8.2
$ 8.5
$ 8.9
$ 9.2
$ 9.4
$ 9.7
$ 9.8
$ 10.0
$ 123.7
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.7
$ 0.9
$ 1.2
$ 1.4
$ 1.5
$ 1.7
$ 1.8
$ 2.0
$ 2.1
$ 2.2
$ 2.4
$ 2.5
$ 2.6
$ 2.7
$ 2.8
$ 2.9
$ 3.0
$ 35.1
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 5.3
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.6
$ 1.0
$ 1.5
$ 2.1
$ 2.7
$ 3.1
$ 3.5
$ 3.9
$ 4.2
$ 4.6
$ 4.9
$ 5.2
$ 5.5
$ 5.7
$ 6.0
$ 6.3
$ 6.5
$ 6.7
$ 6.9
$ 81.1
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.6
$ 1.0
$ 1.4
$ 2.0
$ 2.6
$ 2.9
$ 3.2
$ 3.5
$ 3.7
$ 3.8
$ 4.0
$ 4.1
$ 4.2
$ 4.3
$ 4.4
$ 4.5
$ 4.6
$ 4.6
$ 4.7
$ 64.5
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 9.8
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.5
$ 1.3
$ 2.2
$ 3.3
$ 4.5
$ 5.9
$ 6.7
$ 7.4
$ 8.0
$ 8.5
$ 8.9
$ 9.2
$ 9.5
$ 9.8
$ 10.1
$ 10.3
$ 10.5
$ 10.7
$ 10.7
$ 10.9
$ 149.1
    Notes:   All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
           Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
    Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38b, E.38f, and E.38J.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
      Exhibit F.2d  Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                          (Surface Water Systems Serving 1,000-3,299 People)

    TTHM - Preferred Alternative

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.8
$ 2.1
$ 3.8
$ 5.9
$ 8.4
$ 11.2
$ 13.5
$ 15.5
$ 17.4
$ 19.0
$ 20.5
$ 21.7
$ 22.8
$ 23.8
$ 24.7
$ 25.5
$ 26.3
$ 27.0
$ 27.3
$ 27.9
$ 345.2
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.3
$ 0.6
$ 0.9
$ 1.3
$ 1.7
$ 2.1
$ 2.4
$ 2.6
$ 2.9
$ 3.1
$ 3.3
$ 3.5
$ 3.6
$ 3.8
$ 3.9
$ 4.0
$ 4.1
$ 4.1
$ 4.2
$ 52.5
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.9
$ 4.8
$ 8.8
$ 13.6
$ 19.3
$ 25.8
$ 31.1
$ 35.8
$ 40.0
$ 43.9
$ 47.3
$ 50.1
$ 52.8
$ 55.1
$ 57.2
$ 59.1
$ 60.9
$ 62.6
$ 63.3
$ 64.7
$ 797.9
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.7
$ 1.6
$ 2.8
$ 4.2
$ 5.8
$ 7.6
$ 8.8
$ 9.9
$ 10.9
$ 11.8
$ 12.7
$ 13.6
$ 14.4
$ 15.2
$ 16.0
$ 16.7
$ 17.5
$ 18.2
$ 18.6
$ 19.2
$ 226.2
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.6
$ 0.9
$ 1.2
$ 1.3
$ 1.5
$ 1.7
$ 1.8
$ 1.9
$ 2.1
$ 2.2
$ 2.3
$ 2.4
$ 2.5
$ 2.6
$ 2.8
$ 2.8
$ 2.9
$ 34.4
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.6
$ 3.8
$ 6.5
$ 9.7
$ 13.3
$ 17.4
$ 20.2
$ 22.7
$ 25.0
$ 27.3
$ 29.4
$ 31.4
$ 33.3
$ 35.2
$ 37.0
$ 38.7
$ 40.5
$ 42.2
$ 43.2
$ 44.7
$ 523.0
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.4
$ 3.6
$ 6.2
$ 9.3
$ 12.7
$ 16.5
$ 18.9
$ 20.8
$ 22.4
$ 23.7
$ 24.8
$ 25.8
$ 26.6
$ 27.4
$ 28.0
$ 28.7
$ 29.2
$ 29.8
$ 29.9
$ 30.3
$ 416.1
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.5
$ 1.0
$ 1.4
$ 1.9
$ 2.5
$ 2.9
$ 3.2
$ 3.4
$ 3.6
$ 3.8
$ 3.9
$ 4.0
$ 4.2
$ 4.3
$ 4.4
$ 4.4
$ 4.5
$ 4.5
$ 4.6
$ 63.3
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 3.3
$ 8.2
$ 14.3
$ 21.4
$ 29.3
$ 37.9
$ 43.5
$ 47.9
$ 51.6
$ 54.7
$ 57.3
$ 59.5
$ 61.6
$ 63.3
$ 64.9
$ 66.3
$ 67.7
$ 69.1
$ 69.3
$ 70.3
$ 961.4
    Notes:   All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
           Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
    Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38b, E.38f, and E.38J.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
      Exhibit F.2e  Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                          (Surface Water Systems Serving 3,300-9,999 People)

    TTHM - Preferred Alternative

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.3
$ 6.0
$ 10.9
$ 16.9
$ 24.0
$ 32.1
$ 38.6
$ 44.5
$ 49.7
$ 54.4
$ 58.5
$ 62.1
$ 65.3
$ 68.1
$ 70.7
$ 73.0
$ 75.2
$ 77.2
$ 78.1
$ 79.7
$ 987.5
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.4
$ 0.9
$ 1.7
$ 2.6
$ 3.7
$ 4.9
$ 5.9
$ 6.8
$ 7.6
$ 8.3
$ 8.9
$ 9.4
$ 9.9
$ 10.4
$ 10.7
$ 11.1
$ 11.4
$ 11.7
$ 11.8
$ 12.1
$ 150.1
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 5.3
$ 13.9
$ 25.1
$ 38.8
$ 55.1
$ 73.8
$ 88.9
$ 102.3
$ 114.5
$ 125.6
$ 135.2
$ 143.4
$ 150.9
$ 157.5
$ 163.5
$ 169.0
$ 174.2
$ 179.2
$ 181.1
$ 185.0
$ 2,282.5
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.0
$ 4.7
$ 8.1
$ 12.1
$ 16.6
$ 21.7
$ 25.1
$ 28.2
$ 31.1
$ 33.8
$ 36.4
$ 38.8
$ 41.2
$ 43.5
$ 45.7
$ 47.9
$ 50.0
$ 52.0
$ 53.3
$ 55.1
$ 647.2
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.3
$ 0.7
$ 1.2
$ 1.8
$ 2.5
$ 3.3
$ 3.8
$ 4.3
$ 4.7
$ 5.1
$ 5.5
$ 5.9
$ 6.3
$ 6.6
$ 7.0
$ 7.3
$ 7.6
$ 7.9
$ 8.1
$ 8.3
$ 98.4
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 4.5
$ 10.8
$ 18.6
$ 27.8
$ 38.2
$ 49.8
$ 57.7
$ 64.9
$ 71.6
$ 78.0
$ 84.0
$ 89.7
$ 95.3
$ 100.7
$ 105.8
$ 110.8
$ 115.7
$ 120.6
$ 123.5
$ 127.8
$ 1,496.0
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 4.1
$ 10.2
$ 17.9
$ 26.7
$ 36.5
$ 47.1
$ 54.1
$ 59.5
$ 64.0
$ 67.8
$ 71.0
$ 73.7
$ 76.1
$ 78.3
$ 80.2
$ 82.0
$ 83.6
$ 85.2
$ 85.5
$ 86.6
$1,190.2
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.6
$ 1.6
$ 2.7
$ 4.1
$ 5.6
$ 7.2
$ 8.3
$ 9.1
$ 9.8
$ 10.3
$ 10.8
$ 11.2
$ 11.6
$ 11.9
$ 12.2
$ 12.4
$ 12.7
$ 12.9
$ 13.0
$ 13.1
$ 181.0
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 9.5
$ 23.6
$ 41.0
$ 61.2
$ 83.8
$ 108.3
$ 124.3
$ 137.1
$ 147.5
$ 156.4
$ 163.8
$ 170.2
$ 176.1
$ 181.1
$ 185.7
$ 189.8
$ 193.7
$ 197.6
$ 198.2
$ 201.1
$ 2,750.2
    Notes:   All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
           Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
    Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38b, E.38f, and E.38J.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
      Exhibit F.2f  Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                         (Surface Water Systems Serving 10,000-49,999 People)

    TTHM - Preferred Alternative

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 14.2
$ 36.6
$ 66.3
$ 102.7
$ 145.9
$ 188.3
$ 224.3
$ 256.9
$ 286.4
$ 312.5
$ 335.2
$ 354.8
$ 372.1
$ 387.7
$ 401 .8
$ 414.8
$ 426.8
$ 438.0
$ 442.7
$ 451 .5
$ 5,659.3
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.2
$ 5.6
$ 10.1
$ 15.7
$ 22.3
$ 28.8
$ 34.3
$ 39.2
$ 43.7
$ 47.6
$ 51.0
$ 54.0
$ 56.6
$ 59.0
$ 61.1
$ 63.0
$ 64.7
$ 66.3
$ 67.1
$ 68.3
$ 860.5
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 32.5
$ 84.2
$ 152.2
$ 235.8
$ 335.4
$ 433.1
$ 515.8
$ 591.3
$ 659.7
$ 721.2
$ 773.9
$ 819.2
$ 860.7
$ 896.9
$ 929.9
$ 959.9
$ 988.6
$ 1,016.1
$ 1 ,026.5
$ 1 ,047.8
$ 13,080.7
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 13.5
$ 31.9
$ 54.3
$ 80.3
$ 109.6
$ 135.0
$ 153.6
$ 170.3
$ 185.7
$ 200.2
$ 214.0
$ 227.2
$ 239.8
$ 252.0
$ 263.8
$ 275.3
$ 286.4
$ 297.2
$ 303.8
$ 313.2
$ 3,807.2
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.1
$ 4.9
$ 8.3
$ 12.3
$ 16.8
$ 20.6
$ 23.5
$ 26.0
$ 28.3
$ 30.5
$ 32.6
$ 34.6
$ 36.5
$ 38.3
$ 40.1
$ 41.8
$ 43.4
$ 45.0
$ 46.0
$ 47.4
$ 578.9
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 30.9
$ 73.3
$ 124.7
$ 184.5
$ 252.0
$ 310.5
$ 353.2
$ 391.9
$ 427.9
$ 462.1
$ 494.1
$ 524.6
$ 554.7
$ 583.1
$ 610.6
$ 637.1
$ 663.4
$ 689.5
$ 704.3
$ 726.9
$ 8,799.3
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 26.6
$ 65.1
$ 112.3
$ 166.5
$ 226.4
$ 277.3
$ 312.0
$ 339.7
$ 362.6
$ 381 .9
$ 398.5
$ 413.1
$ 426.0
$ 437.7
$ 448.3
$ 458.1
$ 467.2
$ 475.8
$ 477.7
$ 484.2
$ 6,757.1
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 4.1
$ 10.0
$ 17.2
$ 25.5
$ 34.6
$ 42.4
$ 47.7
$ 51.9
$ 55.3
$ 58.2
$ 60.7
$ 62.8
$ 64.8
$ 66.6
$ 68.1
$ 69.5
$ 70.8
$ 72.0
$ 72.4
$ 73.3
$ 1,027.8
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 61.1
$ 149.7
$ 257.9
$ 382.3
$ 520.4
$ 637.6
$ 717.6
$ 782.1
$ 835.4
$ 881.3
$ 920.1
$ 953.8
$ 985.3
$ 1,012.5
$ 1,037.5
$ 1,060.2
$ 1,082.3
$ 1,103.9
$ 1,107.6
$ 1,123.9
$ 15,612.6
    Notes:   All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
           Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
    Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38b,  E.38f, and E.38J.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
      Exhibit F.2g  Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                         (Surface Water Systems Serving 50,000-99,999 People)

    TTHM - Preferred Alternative

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 12.3
$ 31.9
$ 57.8
$ 89.5
$ 120.7
$ 147.5
$ 172.0
$ 194.2
$ 214.0
$ 231.1
$ 245.7
$ 258.6
$ 270.2
$ 280.6
$ 290.1
$ 298.9
$ 307.1
$ 314.8
$ 317.8
$ 323.9
$ 4,178.6
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.9
$ 4.9
$ 8.8
$ 13.7
$ 18.5
$ 22.6
$ 26.3
$ 29.7
$ 32.6
$ 35.2
$ 37.4
$ 39.3
$ 41.1
$ 42.7
$ 44.1
$ 45.4
$ 46.5
$ 47.7
$ 48.2
$ 49.0
$ 635.4
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 28.4
$ 73.4
$ 132.7
$ 205.5
$ 277.5
$ 339.2
$ 395.4
$ 447.1
$ 493.1
$ 533.3
$ 567.4
$ 597.2
$ 624.8
$ 649.1
$ 671.4
$ 691.8
$ 711.3
$ 730.2
$ 736.9
$ 751.6
$ 9,657.2
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 11.7
$ 27.8
$ 47.3
$ 70.0
$ 89.4
$ 103.2
$ 115.4
$ 126.7
$ 137.2
$ 147.2
$ 156.8
$ 165.9
$ 174.7
$ 183.2
$ 191.4
$ 199.4
$ 207.2
$ 214.7
$ 219.3
$ 225.9
$ 2,814.4
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.8
$ 4.3
$ 7.2
$ 10.7
$ 13.7
$ 15.8
$ 17.6
$ 19.3
$ 20.9
$ 22.4
$ 23.9
$ 25.2
$ 26.6
$ 27.9
$ 29.1
$ 30.3
$ 31.4
$ 32.5
$ 33.2
$ 34.2
$ 428.0
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 27.0
$ 63.9
$ 108.7
$ 160.8
$ 205.6
$ 237.3
$ 265.5
$ 291.6
$ 316.2
$ 339.8
$ 361.9
$ 383.0
$ 404.0
$ 423.7
$ 442.9
$ 461.5
$ 479.9
$ 498.2
$ 508.4
$ 524.2
$ 6,504.0
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 23.2
$ 56.7
$ 97.8
$ 145.1
$ 185.2
$ 212.1
$ 233.3
$ 250.7
$ 265.3
$ 277.7
$ 288.6
$ 298.2
$ 306.8
$ 314.7
$ 321 .8
$ 328.5
$ 334.8
$ 340.7
$ 341 .8
$ 346.3
$ 4,969.4
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 3.5
$ 8.7
$ 15.0
$ 22.2
$ 28.3
$ 32.4
$ 35.6
$ 38.3
$ 40.4
$ 42.3
$ 43.9
$ 45.4
$ 46.7
$ 47.9
$ 48.9
$ 49.9
$ 50.7
$ 51.6
$ 51.8
$ 52.4
$ 756.0
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 53.3
$ 130.4
$ 224.8
$ 333.2
$ 425.8
$ 487.8
$ 536.5
$ 577.0
$ 611.1
$ 641.0
$ 666.4
$ 688.6
$ 709.7
$ 727.9
$ 744.8
$ 760.3
$ 775.4
$ 790.3
$ 792.6
$ 803.8
$ 11,480.7
    Notes:   All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
           Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
    Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38b, E.38f, and E.38J.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
          Exhibit F.2h Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                           (Surface Water Systems Serving 100,000-999,999 People)

 TTHM - Preferred Alternative

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 54.6
$ 141.2
$ 255.5
$ 395.8
$ 505.7
$ 607.6
$ 702.0
$ 787.6
$ 862.2
$ 925.2
$ 980.1
$ 1,028.7
$ 1,072.4
$ 1,112.0
$ 1,148.3
$ 1,182.0
$ 1,213.4
$ 1,242.9
$ 1 ,254.4
$ 1,277.6
$ 16,749.1
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
-
$
$ 8.4
$ 21.6
$ 39.1
$ 60.6
$ 77.3
$ 92.9
$ 107.2
$ 120.3
$ 131.5
$ 140.9
$ 149.2
$ 156.5
$ 163.1
$ 169.1
$ 174.6
$ 179.4
$ 183.9
$ 188.2
$ 190.1
$ 193.4
$ 2,547.2
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 125.4
$ 324.8
$ 586.9
$ 909.0
$ 1,162.4
$ 1,397.5
$ 1,614.3
$ 1,813.0
$ 1,986.3
$ 2,135.1
$ 2,262.8
$ 2,375.2
$ 2,480.1
$ 2,572.4
$ 2,657.5
$ 2,735.5
$ 2,810.7
$ 2,883.5
$ 2,908.6
$ 2,965.2
$ 38,706.4
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 51.9
$ 122.8
$ 209.3
$ 309.6
$ 368.7
$ 419.8
$ 466.3
$ 509.4
$ 550.0
$ 588.5
$ 625.3
$ 660.7
$ 694.8
$ 727.8
$ 759.7
$ 790.8
$ 821.1
$ 850.6
$ 868.0
$ 893.7
$ 11,288.8
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
-
$
$ 7.9
$ 18.8
$ 32.0
$ 47.4
$ 56.4
$ 64.2
$ 71.2
$ 77.8
$ 83.9
$ 89.6
$ 95.2
$ 100.5
$ 105.7
$ 110.7
$ 115.5
$ 120.0
$ 124.5
$ 128.8
$ 131.5
$ 135.3
$ 1,716.9
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
-
$
$ 119.3
$ 282.5
$ 480.9
$ 711.2
$ 847.5
$ 965.5
$ 1,072.3
$ 1,172.6
$ 1,267.0
$ 1,358.1
$ 1,443.7
$ 1,525.5
$ 1,606.9
$ 1,683.6
$ 1,758.2
$ 1,830.2
$ 1,901.9
$ 1,973.3
$ 2,012.6
$ 2,074.2
$ 26,086.9
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
-
$
$ 102.5
$ 250.8
$ 432.8
$ 641.7
$ 766.0
$ 861.6
$ 938.7
$ 1 ,002.6
$ 1 ,056.6
$ 1,103.2
$ 1,144.0
$ 1,180.3
$ 1,212.9
$ 1,242.7
$ 1,270.1
$ 1,295.7
$ 1,319.8
$ 1 ,342.6
$ 1 ,346.8
$ 1 ,364.2
$ 19,875.7
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
-
$
$ 15.7
$ 38.4
$ 66.2
$ 98.2
$ 117.1
$ 131.8
$ 143.4
$ 153.1
$ 161.1
$ 168.1
$ 174.2
$ 179.5
$ 184.4
$ 189.0
$ 193.1
$ 196.7
$ 200.1
$ 203.3
$ 204.1
$ 206.5
$ 3,023.9
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 235.6
$ 576.9
$ 994.4
$ 1,473.9
$ 1,760.9
$ 1,981.6
$ 2,158.7
$ 2,307.8
$ 2,434.2
$ 2,545.9
$ 2,641.2
$ 2,725.1
$ 2,805.3
$ 2,874.8
$ 2,939.4
$ 2,998.8
$ 3,057.1
$ 3,114.8
$ 3,122.7
$ 3,166.1
$ 45,915.3
 Notes:  All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
        Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
 Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38b, E.38f, and E.38J.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
         Exhibit F.2i  Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                             (Surface Water Systems Serving >1,000,000 People)

TTHM - Preferred Alternative
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 46.4
$ 120.2
$ 217.4
$ 336.8
$ 430.3
$ 517.1
$ 597.4
$ 670.3
$ 733.8
$ 787.4
$ 834.1
$ 875.5
$ 912.6
$ 946.4
$ 977.3
$ 1,005.9
$ 1,032.7
$ 1,057.8
$ 1,067.6
$ 1,087.3
$ 14,254.5
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 7.1
$ 18.4
$ 33.3
$ 51.6
$ 65.8
$ 79.1
$ 91.3
$ 102.4
$ 111.9
$ 119.9
$ 127.0
$ 133.2
$ 138.8
$ 143.9
$ 148.6
$ 152.7
$ 156.5
$ 160.2
$ 161.8
$ 164.6
$ 2,167.8
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 106.8
$ 276.4
$ 499.5
$ 773.7
$ 989.3
$ 1,189.3
$ 1,373.9
$ 1,543.0
$ 1,690.5
$ 1,817.1
$ 1,925.8
$ 2,021.4
$ 2,110.7
$ 2,189.3
$ 2,261.7
$ 2,328.1
$ 2,392.0
$ 2,454.0
$ 2,475.4
$ 2,523.6
$ 32,941.4
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 44.2
$ 104.5
$ 178.2
$ 263.5
$ 313.8
$ 357.3
$ 396.8
$ 433.5
$ 468.1
$ 500.8
$ 532.2
$ 562.3
$ 591.3
$ 619.4
$ 646.6
$ 673.0
$ 698.8
$ 723.9
$ 738.7
$ 760.6
$ 9,607.4
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 6.8
$ 16.0
$ 27.3
$ 40.3
$ 48.0
$ 54.6
$ 60.6
$ 66.2
$ 71.4
$ 76.3
$ 81.0
$ 85.5
$ 89.9
$ 94.2
$ 98.3
$ 102.2
$ 105.9
$ 109.6
$ 111.9
$ 115.1
$ 1,461.1
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 101.5
$ 240.5
$ 409.3
$ 605.3
$ 721.3
$ 821.7
$ 912.6
$ 997.9
$ 1,078.3
$ 1,155.8
$ 1,228.7
$ 1,298.3
$ 1,367.6
$ 1,432.8
$ 1,496.3
$ 1,557.6
$ 1,618.6
$ 1,679.4
$ 1,712.9
$ 1,765.3
$ 22,201.5
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 87.2
$ 213.5
$ 368.4
$ 546.1
$ 651.9
$ 733.3
$ 798.9
$ 853.2
$ 899.2
$ 938.9
$ 973.6
$ 1,004.5
$ 1,032.3
$ 1,057.6
$ 1,081.0
$ 1,102.7
$ 1,123.2
$ 1,142.6
$ 1,146.2
$ 1,161.0
$ 16,915.4
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 13.4
$ 32.7
$ 56.4
$ 83.6
$ 99.7
$ 112.1
$ 122.0
$ 130.3
$ 137.1
$ 143.0
$ 148.3
$ 152.8
$ 157.0
$ 160.9
$ 164.3
$ 167.4
$ 170.3
$ 173.0
$ 173.7
$ 175.7
$ 2,573.5
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 200.5
$ 491.0
$ 846.3
$ 1,254.4
$ 1,498.7
$ 1,686.5
$ 1,837.2
$ 1,964.1
$ 2,071.7
$ 2,166.7
$ 2,247.8
$ 2,319.3
$ 2,387.4
$ 2,446.6
$ 2,501.6
$ 2,552.2
$ 2,601.8
$ 2,650.9
$ 2,657.6
$ 2,694.5
$ 39,076.6
 Notes:  All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
       Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
 Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38b, E.38f, and E.38J.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
         Exhibit F.2j  Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                                         (All Surface Water Systems)

TTHM - Preferred Alternative
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 130.8
$ 338.6
$ 612.6
$ 949.0
$ 1,237.1
$ 1,506.7
$ 1,751.2
$ 1,972.9
$ 2,167.8
$ 2,334.5
$ 2,479.3
$ 2,606.9
$ 2,721.1
$ 2,824.5
$ 2,919.2
$ 3,006.6
$ 3,088.0
$ 3,164.5
$ 3,194.9
$ 3,254.9
$ 42,261.4
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 20.0
$ 51.8
$ 93.8
$ 145.3
$ 189.1
$ 230.4
$ 267.5
$ 301.3
$ 330.5
$ 355.6
$ 377.5
$ 396.5
$ 413.8
$ 429.6
$ 443.8
$ 456.4
$ 468.1
$ 479.1
$ 484.2
$ 492.6
$ 6,426.8
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 300.8
$ 778.8
$ 1,407.4
$ 2,179.9
$ 2,843.9
$ 3,465.2
$ 4,027.2
$ 4,541.5
$ 4,994.2
$ 5,387.3
$ 5,724.1
$ 6,019.2
$ 6,293.4
$ 6,534.2
$ 6,755.6
$ 6,958.4
$ 7,153.0
$ 7,341.5
$ 7,407.8
$ 7,554.2
$ 97,667.6
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 124.0
$ 293.8
$ 500.8
$ 740.8
$ 905.4
$ 1,046.5
$ 1,168.2
$ 1,280.4
$ 1,385.7
$ 1,485.4
$ 1,580.6
$ 1,671.9
$ 1,759.9
$ 1,844.9
$ 1,927.3
$ 2,007.3
$ 2,085.2
$ 2,161.1
$ 2,206.4
$ 2,272.6
$ 28,448.2
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 19.0
$ 45.0
$ 76.6
$ 113.4
$ 138.4
$ 160.0
$ 178.5
$ 195.5
$ 211.3
$ 226.3
$ 240.7
$ 254.3
$ 267.6
$ 280.6
$ 293.0
$ 304.7
$ 316.1
$ 327.2
$ 334.4
$ 343.9
$ 4,326.4
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 285.1
$ 675.7
$ 1,150.4
$ 1,701.7
$ 2,081.3
$ 2,406.7
$ 2,686.6
$ 2,947.4
$ 3,192.4
$ 3,427.9
$ 3,649.2
$ 3,860.3
$ 4,070.3
$ 4,267.9
$ 4,460.2
$ 4,645.7
$ 4,830.1
$ 5,013.8
$ 5,115.9
$ 5,274.3
$ 65,742.7
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 245.4
$ 600.8
$ 1,037.0
$ 1,537.6
$ 1,882.0
$ 2,152.0
$ 2,360.7
$ 2,531.8
$ 2,675.8
$ 2,799.2
$ 2,906.8
$ 3,002.1
$ 3,087.6
$ 3,165.2
$ 3,236.6
$ 3,303.0
$ 3,365.3
$ 3,424.2
$ 3,435.4
$ 3,480.4
$ 50,228.9
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 37.6
$ 92.0
$ 158.7
$ 235.4
$ 287.7
$ 329.1
$ 360.6
$ 386.6
$ 408.0
$ 426.4
$ 442.6
$ 456.6
$ 469.5
$ 481.4
$ 492.0
$ 501.4
$ 510.1
$ 518.5
$ 520.6
$ 526.7
$ 7,641.4
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 564.2
$ 1,381.8
$ 2,382.3
$ 3,531.9
$ 4,326.3
$ 4,949.2
$ 5,428.8
$ 5,828.0
$ 6,164.5
$ 6,459.8
$ 6,711.1
$ 6,931.5
$ 7,140.9
$ 7,322.3
$ 7,490.3
$ 7,644.4
$ 7,795.2
$ 7,944.0
$ 7,965.5
$ 8,077.5
$ 116,039.6
Notes:     All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
          Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
Source:    Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38b, E.38f, and E.38J.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
      Exhibit F.2k  Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                             (Ground Water Systems Serving <100 People)

    TTHM - Preferred Alternative

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 7.2
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 1.1
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.6
$ 0.7
$ 0.8
$ 0.9
$ 1.0
$ 1.0
$ 1.1
$ 1.1
$ 1.2
$ 1.2
$ 1.3
$ 1.3
$ 1.3
$ 1.3
$ 16.6
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 4.7
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.7
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.9
$ 0.9
$ 0.9
$ 10.9
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 8.7
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 1.3
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.6
$ 0.8
$ 0.9
$ 1.0
$ 1.1
$ 1.1
$ 1.2
$ 1.2
$ 1.3
$ 1.3
$ 1.4
$ 1.4
$ 1.4
$ 1.4
$ 1.4
$ 1.5
$ 20.0
    Notes:   All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
           Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
    Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38c, E.38g, and E.38k.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
      Exhibit F.2I Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                            (Ground Water Systems Serving 100-499 People)

    TTHM - Preferred Alternative

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.3
$ 0.6
$ 0.9
$ 1.3
$ 1.7
$ 2.1
$ 2.4
$ 2.7
$ 2.9
$ 3.1
$ 3.3
$ 3.5
$ 3.7
$ 3.8
$ 3.9
$ 4.0
$ 4.2
$ 4.2
$ 4.3
$ 53.1
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 8.1
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.3
$ 0.7
$ 1.3
$ 2.1
$ 3.0
$ 4.0
$ 4.8
$ 5.5
$ 6.2
$ 6.7
$ 7.3
$ 7.7
$ 8.1
$ 8.5
$ 8.8
$ 9.1
$ 9.4
$ 9.6
$ 9.7
$ 9.9
$ 122.7
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.6
$ 0.9
$ 1.2
$ 1.3
$ 1.5
$ 1.7
$ 1.8
$ 2.0
$ 2.1
$ 2.2
$ 2.3
$ 2.5
$ 2.6
$ 2.7
$ 2.8
$ 2.9
$ 3.0
$ 34.8
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 5.3
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.6
$ 1.0
$ 1.5
$ 2.1
$ 2.7
$ 3.1
$ 3.5
$ 3.8
$ 4.2
$ 4.5
$ 4.8
$ 5.1
$ 5.4
$ 5.7
$ 6.0
$ 6.2
$ 6.5
$ 6.6
$ 6.9
$ 80.4
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.6
$ 1.0
$ 1.4
$ 2.0
$ 2.5
$ 2.9
$ 3.2
$ 3.4
$ 3.6
$ 3.8
$ 4.0
$ 4.1
$ 4.2
$ 4.3
$ 4.4
$ 4.5
$ 4.6
$ 4.6
$ 4.7
$ 64.0
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 9.7
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.5
$ 1.3
$ 2.2
$ 3.3
$ 4.5
$ 5.8
$ 6.7
$ 7.4
$ 7.9
$ 8.4
$ 8.8
$ 9.1
$ 9.5
$ 9.7
$ 10.0
$ 10.2
$ 10.4
$ 10.6
$ 10.7
$ 10.8
$ 147.8
    Notes:   All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
           Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
    Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38c, E.38g, and E.38k.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
      Exhibit F.2m Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                            (Ground Water Systems Serving 500-999 People)

    TTHM - Preferred Alternative

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.3
$ 0.6
$ 1.0
$ 1.4
$ 1.8
$ 2.2
$ 2.5
$ 2.8
$ 3.1
$ 3.3
$ 3.6
$ 3.7
$ 3.9
$ 4.0
$ 4.2
$ 4.3
$ 4.4
$ 4.5
$ 4.6
$ 56.5
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 8.6
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.3
$ 0.8
$ 1.4
$ 2.2
$ 3.2
$ 4.2
$ 5.1
$ 5.9
$ 6.5
$ 7.2
$ 7.7
$ 8.2
$ 8.6
$ 9.0
$ 9.4
$ 9.7
$ 10.0
$ 10.2
$ 10.4
$ 10.6
$ 130.5
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.3
$ 0.5
$ 0.7
$ 1.0
$ 1.2
$ 1.4
$ 1.6
$ 1.8
$ 1.9
$ 2.1
$ 2.2
$ 2.4
$ 2.5
$ 2.6
$ 2.7
$ 2.9
$ 3.0
$ 3.0
$ 3.1
$ 37.0
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 5.6
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.3
$ 0.6
$ 1.1
$ 1.6
$ 2.2
$ 2.8
$ 3.3
$ 3.7
$ 4.1
$ 4.5
$ 4.8
$ 5.1
$ 5.5
$ 5.8
$ 6.1
$ 6.3
$ 6.6
$ 6.9
$ 7.1
$ 7.3
$ 85.5
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.6
$ 1.0
$ 1.5
$ 2.1
$ 2.7
$ 3.1
$ 3.4
$ 3.7
$ 3.9
$ 4.1
$ 4.2
$ 4.4
$ 4.5
$ 4.6
$ 4.7
$ 4.8
$ 4.9
$ 4.9
$ 5.0
$ 68.0
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 10.3
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.5
$ 1.3
$ 2.3
$ 3.5
$ 4.8
$ 6.2
$ 7.1
$ 7.8
$ 8.4
$ 8.9
$ 9.4
$ 9.7
$ 10.1
$ 10.4
$ 10.6
$ 10.9
$ 11.1
$ 11.3
$ 11.3
$ 11.5
$ 157.2
    Notes:   All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
           Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
    Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38c, E.38g, and E.38k.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
      Exhibit F.2n  Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                          (Ground Water Systems Serving 1,000-3,299 People)

    TTHM - Preferred Alternative

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.4
$ 1.0
$ 1.9
$ 2.9
$ 4.1
$ 5.5
$ 6.7
$ 7.7
$ 8.6
$ 9.4
$ 10.1
$ 10.7
$ 11.3
$ 11.8
$ 12.2
$ 12.6
$ 13.0
$ 13.3
$ 13.5
$ 13.8
$ 170.4
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.6
$ 0.8
$ 1.0
$ 1.2
$ 1.3
$ 1.4
$ 1.5
$ 1.6
$ 1.7
$ 1.8
$ 1.9
$ 1.9
$ 2.0
$ 2.0
$ 2.0
$ 2.1
$ 25.9
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.9
$ 2.4
$ 4.3
$ 6.7
$ 9.5
$ 12.7
$ 15.3
$ 17.7
$ 19.8
$ 21.7
$ 23.3
$ 24.8
$ 26.1
$ 27.2
$ 28.2
$ 29.2
$ 30.1
$ 30.9
$ 31.3
$ 31.9
$ 394.0
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.3
$ 0.8
$ 1.4
$ 2.1
$ 2.9
$ 3.7
$ 4.3
$ 4.9
$ 5.4
$ 5.8
$ 6.3
$ 6.7
$ 7.1
$ 7.5
$ 7.9
$ 8.3
$ 8.6
$ 9.0
$ 9.2
$ 9.5
$ 111.7
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.6
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.8
$ 0.9
$ 1.0
$ 1.0
$ 1.1
$ 1.1
$ 1.2
$ 1.3
$ 1.3
$ 1.4
$ 1.4
$ 1.4
$ 17.0
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.8
$ 1.9
$ 3.2
$ 4.8
$ 6.6
$ 8.6
$ 10.0
$ 11.2
$ 12.4
$ 13.5
$ 14.5
$ 15.5
$ 16.5
$ 17.4
$ 18.3
$ 19.1
$ 20.0
$ 20.8
$ 21.3
$ 22.1
$ 258.3
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.7
$ 1.8
$ 3.1
$ 4.6
$ 6.3
$ 8.1
$ 9.3
$ 10.3
$ 11.1
$ 11.7
$ 12.2
$ 12.7
$ 13.1
$ 13.5
$ 13.8
$ 14.2
$ 14.4
$ 14.7
$ 14.8
$ 15.0
$ 205.4
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.3
$ 0.5
$ 0.7
$ 1.0
$ 1.2
$ 1.4
$ 1.6
$ 1.7
$ 1.8
$ 1.9
$ 1.9
$ 2.0
$ 2.1
$ 2.1
$ 2.1
$ 2.2
$ 2.2
$ 2.2
$ 2.3
$ 31.2
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.6
$ 4.1
$ 7.1
$ 10.6
$ 14.5
$ 18.7
$ 21.5
$ 23.7
$ 25.5
$ 27.0
$ 28.3
$ 29.4
$ 30.4
$ 31.3
$ 32.0
$ 32.8
$ 33.4
$ 34.1
$ 34.2
$ 34.7
$ 474.7
    Notes:   All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
           Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
    Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38c, E.38g, and E.38k.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
      Exhibit F.2o  Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                          (Ground Water Systems Serving 3,300-9,999 People)

    TTHM - Preferred Alternative

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.6
$ 1.6
$ 3.0
$ 4.6
$ 6.5
$ 8.8
$ 10.5
$ 12.1
$ 13.6
$ 14.9
$ 16.0
$ 17.0
$ 17.8
$ 18.6
$ 19.3
$ 19.9
$ 20.5
$ 21.1
$ 21.3
$ 21.8
$ 269.6
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.3
$ 0.5
$ 0.7
$ 1.0
$ 1.3
$ 1.6
$ 1.9
$ 2.1
$ 2.3
$ 2.4
$ 2.6
$ 2.7
$ 2.8
$ 2.9
$ 3.0
$ 3.1
$ 3.2
$ 3.2
$ 3.3
$ 41.0
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.5
$ 3.8
$ 6.8
$ 10.6
$ 15.1
$ 20.2
$ 24.3
$ 27.9
$ 31.3
$ 34.3
$ 36.9
$ 39.2
$ 41.2
$ 43.0
$ 44.7
$ 46.1
$ 47.6
$ 48.9
$ 49.5
$ 50.5
$ 623.2
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.5
$ 1.3
$ 2.2
$ 3.3
$ 4.5
$ 5.9
$ 6.9
$ 7.7
$ 8.5
$ 9.2
$ 9.9
$ 10.6
$ 11.3
$ 11.9
$ 12.5
$ 13.1
$ 13.6
$ 14.2
$ 14.5
$ 15.0
$ 176.7
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.5
$ 0.7
$ 0.9
$ 1.0
$ 1.2
$ 1.3
$ 1.4
$ 1.5
$ 1.6
$ 1.7
$ 1.8
$ 1.9
$ 2.0
$ 2.1
$ 2.1
$ 2.2
$ 2.3
$ 26.9
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.2
$ 3.0
$ 5.1
$ 7.6
$ 10.4
$ 13.6
$ 15.8
$ 17.7
$ 19.6
$ 21.3
$ 22.9
$ 24.5
$ 26.0
$ 27.5
$ 28.9
$ 30.3
$ 31.6
$ 32.9
$ 33.7
$ 34.9
$ 408.5
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.1
$ 2.8
$ 4.9
$ 7.3
$ 10.0
$ 12.9
$ 14.8
$ 16.3
$ 17.5
$ 18.5
$ 19.4
$ 20.1
$ 20.8
$ 21.4
$ 21.9
$ 22.4
$ 22.8
$ 23.3
$ 23.3
$ 23.7
$ 324.9
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.4
$ 0.7
$ 1.1
$ 1.5
$ 2.0
$ 2.3
$ 2.5
$ 2.7
$ 2.8
$ 3.0
$ 3.1
$ 3.2
$ 3.3
$ 3.3
$ 3.4
$ 3.5
$ 3.5
$ 3.5
$ 3.6
$ 49.4
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.6
$ 6.4
$ 11.2
$ 16.7
$ 22.9
$ 29.6
$ 33.9
$ 37.4
$ 40.3
$ 42.7
$ 44.7
$ 46.5
$ 48.1
$ 49.4
$ 50.7
$ 51.8
$ 52.9
$ 53.9
$ 54.1
$ 54.9
$ 750.9
    Notes:   All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
           Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
    Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38c, E.38g, and E.38k.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
      Exhibit F.2p  Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                         (Ground Water Systems Serving 10,000-49,999 People)

    TTHM - Preferred Alternative

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.0
$ 2.5
$ 4.5
$ 7.0
$ 9.9
$ 12.8
$ 15.2
$ 17.4
$ 19.3
$ 21.1
$ 22.6
$ 23.9
$ 25.0
$ 26.1
$ 27.0
$ 27.9
$ 28.7
$ 29.5
$ 29.8
$ 30.4
$ 381.5
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.4
$ 0.7
$ 1.1
$ 1.5
$ 2.0
$ 2.3
$ 2.7
$ 2.9
$ 3.2
$ 3.4
$ 3.6
$ 3.8
$ 4.0
$ 4.1
$ 4.2
$ 4.4
$ 4.5
$ 4.5
$ 4.6
$ 58.0
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.2
$ 5.7
$ 10.4
$ 16.1
$ 22.9
$ 29.5
$ 35.0
$ 40.0
$ 44.5
$ 48.6
$ 52.1
$ 55.1
$ 57.9
$ 60.3
$ 62.5
$ 64.6
$ 66.5
$ 68.4
$ 69.1
$ 70.5
$ 881.7
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.8
$ 2.0
$ 3.4
$ 5.0
$ 6.9
$ 8.5
$ 9.8
$ 11.0
$ 12.0
$ 13.0
$ 14.0
$ 14.9
$ 15.8
$ 16.7
$ 17.5
$ 18.3
$ 19.1
$ 19.9
$ 20.4
$ 21.0
$ 250.2
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.3
$ 0.5
$ 0.8
$ 1.1
$ 1.3
$ 1.5
$ 1.7
$ 1.8
$ 2.0
$ 2.1
$ 2.3
$ 2.4
$ 2.5
$ 2.7
$ 2.8
$ 2.9
$ 3.0
$ 3.1
$ 3.2
$ 38.0
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.9
$ 4.5
$ 7.7
$ 11.5
$ 15.8
$ 19.7
$ 22.6
$ 25.2
$ 27.7
$ 30.1
$ 32.4
$ 34.5
$ 36.6
$ 38.6
$ 40.6
$ 42.4
$ 44.3
$ 46.2
$ 47.2
$ 48.8
$ 578.4
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.7
$ 4.2
$ 7.4
$ 11.1
$ 15.1
$ 18.6
$ 21.1
$ 23.1
$ 24.7
$ 26.0
$ 27.2
$ 28.2
$ 29.1
$ 29.9
$ 30.6
$ 31.3
$ 31.9
$ 32.4
$ 32.5
$ 33.0
$ 459.0
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.3
$ 0.7
$ 1.1
$ 1.7
$ 2.3
$ 2.8
$ 3.2
$ 3.5
$ 3.8
$ 4.0
$ 4.1
$ 4.3
$ 4.4
$ 4.5
$ 4.7
$ 4.7
$ 4.8
$ 4.9
$ 4.9
$ 5.0
$ 69.8
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 3.9
$ 9.8
$ 17.0
$ 25.4
$ 34.7
$ 42.8
$ 48.5
$ 53.1
$ 56.8
$ 60.1
$ 62.8
$ 65.1
$ 67.3
$ 69.1
$ 70.8
$ 72.3
$ 73.8
$ 75.2
$ 75.5
$ 76.5
$ 1,060.5
    Notes:   All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
           Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
    Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38c, E.38g, and E.38k.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
      Exhibit F.2q  Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                         (Ground Water Systems Serving 50,000-99,999 People)

    TTHM - Preferred Alternative

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.4
$ 1.0
$ 1.9
$ 2.9
$ 4.0
$ 4.8
$ 5.6
$ 6.3
$ 6.9
$ 7.5
$ 7.9
$ 8.4
$ 8.7
$ 9.1
$ 9.4
$ 9.7
$ 9.9
$ 10.2
$ 10.3
$ 10.5
$ 135.3
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.6
$ 0.7
$ 0.9
$ 1.0
$ 1.1
$ 1.1
$ 1.2
$ 1.3
$ 1.3
$ 1.4
$ 1.4
$ 1.5
$ 1.5
$ 1.5
$ 1.6
$ 1.6
$ 20.6
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.9
$ 2.4
$ 4.4
$ 6.7
$ 9.1
$ 11.1
$ 12.9
$ 14.5
$ 16.0
$ 17.2
$ 18.3
$ 19.3
$ 20.2
$ 21.0
$ 21.7
$ 22.4
$ 23.0
$ 23.6
$ 23.8
$ 24.3
$ 312.8
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.3
$ 0.8
$ 1.4
$ 2.1
$ 2.7
$ 3.2
$ 3.6
$ 3.9
$ 4.3
$ 4.6
$ 4.9
$ 5.3
$ 5.6
$ 5.8
$ 6.1
$ 6.4
$ 6.7
$ 6.9
$ 7.1
$ 7.3
$ 89.0
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.6
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.9
$ 0.9
$ 1.0
$ 1.0
$ 1.0
$ 1.1
$ 1.1
$ 13.5
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.8
$ 1.9
$ 3.2
$ 4.8
$ 6.2
$ 7.3
$ 8.2
$ 9.1
$ 9.9
$ 10.7
$ 11.4
$ 12.1
$ 12.8
$ 13.5
$ 14.2
$ 14.8
$ 15.4
$ 16.0
$ 16.4
$ 16.9
$ 205.6
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.7
$ 1.8
$ 3.1
$ 4.6
$ 6.0
$ 6.9
$ 7.6
$ 8.2
$ 8.7
$ 9.1
$ 9.5
$ 9.8
$ 10.1
$ 10.3
$ 10.6
$ 10.8
$ 11.0
$ 11.2
$ 11.2
$ 11.3
$ 162.2
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.3
$ 0.5
$ 0.7
$ 0.9
$ 1.1
$ 1.2
$ 1.3
$ 1.3
$ 1.4
$ 1.4
$ 1.5
$ 1.5
$ 1.6
$ 1.6
$ 1.6
$ 1.7
$ 1.7
$ 1.7
$ 1.7
$ 24.7
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.6
$ 4.1
$ 7.1
$ 10.6
$ 13.7
$ 15.8
$ 17.5
$ 18.8
$ 20.0
$ 21.0
$ 21.9
$ 22.6
$ 23.3
$ 23.9
$ 24.4
$ 24.9
$ 25.4
$ 25.9
$ 25.9
$ 26.3
$ 374.8
    Notes:   All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
           Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
    Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38c, E.38g, and E.38k.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
      Exhibit F.2r  Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                        (Ground Water Systems Serving 100,000-999,999 People)

    TTHM - Preferred Alternative

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.1
$ 2.9
$ 5.3
$ 8.1
$ 10.4
$ 12.4
$ 14.3
$ 16.0
$ 17.5
$ 18.7
$ 19.8
$ 20.8
$ 21.7
$ 22.5
$ 23.3
$ 23.9
$ 24.6
$ 25.2
$ 25.4
$ 25.9
$ 339.9
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.4
$ 0.8
$ 1.2
$ 1.6
$ 1.9
$ 2.2
$ 2.4
$ 2.7
$ 2.9
$ 3.0
$ 3.2
$ 3.3
$ 3.4
$ 3.5
$ 3.6
$ 3.7
$ 3.8
$ 3.9
$ 3.9
$ 51.7
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.6
$ 6.7
$ 12.1
$ 18.7
$ 23.9
$ 28.6
$ 32.9
$ 36.8
$ 40.3
$ 43.3
$ 45.8
$ 48.1
$ 50.2
$ 52.1
$ 53.8
$ 55.4
$ 56.9
$ 58.4
$ 58.9
$ 60.1
$ 785.5
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.9
$ 2.3
$ 3.9
$ 5.8
$ 7.0
$ 8.1
$ 9.0
$ 9.9
$ 10.8
$ 11.6
$ 12.4
$ 13.1
$ 13.8
$ 14.6
$ 15.2
$ 15.9
$ 16.5
$ 17.2
$ 17.6
$ 18.1
$ 223.7
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.3
$ 0.6
$ 0.9
$ 1.1
$ 1.2
$ 1.4
$ 1.5
$ 1.6
$ 1.8
$ 1.9
$ 2.0
$ 2.1
$ 2.2
$ 2.3
$ 2.4
$ 2.5
$ 2.6
$ 2.7
$ 2.7
$ 34.0
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.2
$ 5.2
$ 9.0
$ 13.4
$ 16.1
$ 18.5
$ 20.7
$ 22.8
$ 24.8
$ 26.8
$ 28.6
$ 30.3
$ 32.0
$ 33.7
$ 35.3
$ 36.8
$ 38.3
$ 39.8
$ 40.7
$ 42.0
$ 517.0
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.0
$ 4.9
$ 8.6
$ 12.8
$ 15.5
$ 17.5
$ 19.2
$ 20.5
$ 21.7
$ 22.7
$ 23.5
$ 24.3
$ 24.9
$ 25.5
$ 26.1
$ 26.6
$ 27.1
$ 27.5
$ 27.6
$ 28.0
$ 406.6
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.3
$ 0.8
$ 1.3
$ 2.0
$ 2.4
$ 2.7
$ 2.9
$ 3.1
$ 3.3
$ 3.5
$ 3.6
$ 3.7
$ 3.8
$ 3.9
$ 4.0
$ 4.0
$ 4.1
$ 4.2
$ 4.2
$ 4.2
$ 61.9
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 4.6
$ 11.3
$ 19.7
$ 29.5
$ 35.6
$ 40.3
$ 44.1
$ 47.3
$ 50.0
$ 52.3
$ 54.3
$ 56.0
$ 57.7
$ 59.1
$ 60.4
$ 61.6
$ 62.8
$ 63.9
$ 64.0
$ 64.9
$ 939.2
    Notes:   All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
           Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
    Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38c, E.38g, and E.38k.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
      Exhibit F.2s  Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                          (Ground Water Systems Serving >1,000,000 People)

    TTHM - Preferred Alternative

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.5
$ 0.9
$ 1.4
$ 1.7
$ 2.1
$ 2.4
$ 2.7
$ 2.9
$ 3.1
$ 3.3
$ 3.5
$ 3.6
$ 3.7
$ 3.9
$ 4.0
$ 4.1
$ 4.2
$ 4.2
$ 4.3
$ 56.6
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.7
$ 8.6
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.4
$ 1.1
$ 2.0
$ 3.1
$ 4.0
$ 4.8
$ 5.5
$ 6.1
$ 6.7
$ 7.2
$ 7.6
$ 8.0
$ 8.4
$ 8.7
$ 9.0
$ 9.2
$ 9.5
$ 9.7
$ 9.8
$ 10.0
$ 130.8
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.4
$ 0.6
$ 1.0
$ 1.2
$ 1.3
$ 1.5
$ 1.7
$ 1.8
$ 1.9
$ 2.1
$ 2.2
$ 2.3
$ 2.4
$ 2.5
$ 2.6
$ 2.8
$ 2.9
$ 2.9
$ 3.0
$ 37.3
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 5.7
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.4
$ 0.9
$ 1.5
$ 2.2
$ 2.7
$ 3.1
$ 3.5
$ 3.8
$ 4.1
$ 4.5
$ 4.8
$ 5.0
$ 5.3
$ 5.6
$ 5.9
$ 6.1
$ 6.4
$ 6.6
$ 6.8
$ 7.0
$ 86.1
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.3
$ 0.8
$ 1.4
$ 2.1
$ 2.6
$ 2.9
$ 3.2
$ 3.4
$ 3.6
$ 3.8
$ 3.9
$ 4.0
$ 4.2
$ 4.3
$ 4.3
$ 4.4
$ 4.5
$ 4.6
$ 4.6
$ 4.7
$ 67.7
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 10.3
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.8
$ 1.9
$ 3.3
$ 4.9
$ 5.9
$ 6.7
$ 7.3
$ 7.9
$ 8.3
$ 8.7
$ 9.0
$ 9.3
$ 9.6
$ 9.8
$ 10.1
$ 10.3
$ 10.4
$ 10.6
$ 10.7
$ 10.8
$ 156.4
    Notes:   All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
           Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
    Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38c, E.38g, and E.38k.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
         Exhibit F.2t Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                                        (All Ground Water Systems)

 TTHM - Preferred Alternative
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 4.0
$ 10.3
$ 18.7
$ 29.0
$ 39.5
$ 50.2
$ 59.3
$ 67.4
$ 74.7
$ 81.1
$ 86.7
$ 91.5
$ 95.9
$ 99.8
$ 103.4
$ 106.6
$ 109.7
$ 112.6
$ 113.8
$ 116.0
$ 1,470.1
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.6
$ 1.6
$ 2.9
$ 4.4
$ 6.0
$ 7.7
$ 9.1
$ 10.3
$ 11.4
$ 12.3
$ 13.2
$ 13.9
$ 14.6
$ 15.2
$ 15.7
$ 16.2
$ 16.6
$ 17.0
$ 17.2
$ 17.6
$ 223.5
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 9.1
$ 23.8
$ 43.0
$ 66.6
$ 90.9
$ 115.5
$ 136.4
$ 155.2
$ 172.0
$ 187.1
$ 200.1
$ 211.3
$ 221.7
$ 230.9
$ 239.2
$ 246.8
$ 254.1
$ 261.1
$ 263.8
$ 269.2
$ 3,397.8
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 3.4
$ 8.1
$ 13.9
$ 20.7
$ 27.1
$ 33.3
$ 38.1
$ 42.4
$ 46.4
$ 50.3
$ 53.9
$ 57.4
$ 60.8
$ 64.0
$ 67.2
$ 70.3
$ 73.3
$ 76.2
$ 78.0
$ 80.5
$ 965.1
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.5
$ 1.2
$ 2.1
$ 3.2
$ 4.1
$ 5.1
$ 5.8
$ 6.5
$ 7.1
$ 7.7
$ 8.2
$ 8.7
$ 9.2
$ 9.7
$ 10.2
$ 10.7
$ 11.1
$ 11.5
$ 11.8
$ 12.2
$ 146.7
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 7.7
$ 18.6
$ 31.9
$ 47.6
$ 62.4
$ 76.6
$ 87.5
$ 97.6
$ 107.0
$ 116.0
$ 124.5
$ 132.6
$ 140.6
$ 148.2
$ 155.5
$ 162.6
$ 169.7
$ 176.7
$ 180.8
$ 186.9
$ 2,230.6
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 7.1
$ 17.6
$ 30.6
$ 45.7
$ 59.7
$ 72.5
$ 81.5
$ 88.8
$ 94.7
$ 99.8
$ 104.1
$ 107.8
$ 111.2
$ 114.1
$ 116.8
$ 119.3
$ 121.6
$ 123.7
$ 124.2
$ 125.8
$ 1,766.5
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.1
$ 2.7
$ 4.7
$ 7.0
$ 9.1
$ 11.1
$ 12.5
$ 13.6
$ 14.4
$ 15.2
$ 15.8
$ 16.4
$ 16.9
$ 17.4
$ 17.8
$ 18.1
$ 18.4
$ 18.7
$ 18.8
$ 19.0
$ 268.7
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 16.2
$ 40.4
$ 70.3
$ 104.9
$ 137.2
$ 166.7
$ 187.5
$ 204.3
$ 218.3
$ 230.3
$ 240.3
$ 249.0
$ 257.1
$ 264.0
$ 270.3
$ 276.1
$ 281.6
$ 287.1
$ 287.9
$ 291.9
$ 4,081.5
 Notes:  All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
        Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
 Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38c, E.38g, and E.38k.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
               Exhibit F.2u  Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                                                   (All Water Systems)
 TTHM - Preferred Alternative
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 134.8
$ 348.9
$ 631.3
$ 978.0
$ 1,276.7
$ 1,557.0
$ 1,810.5
$ 2,040.4
$ 2,242.5
$ 2,415.6
$ 2,566.0
$ 2,698.5
$ 2,817.0
$ 2,924.3
$ 3,022.5
$ 3,113.2
$ 3,197.7
$ 3,277.1
$ 3,308.6
$ 3,370.9
$ 43,731.5
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 20.6
$ 53.4
$ 96.6
$ 149.7
$ 195.2
$ 238.1
$ 276.6
$ 311.6
$ 341.9
$ 368.0
$ 390.7
$ 410.4
$ 428.4
$ 444.8
$ 459.5
$ 472.6
$ 484.7
$ 496.2
$ 501.4
$ 510.1
$ 6,650.4
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 309.9
$ 802.5
$ 1,450.4
$ 2,246.4
$ 2,934.8
$ 3,580.7
$ 4,163.6
$ 4,696.7
$ 5,166.3
$ 5,574.4
$ 5,924.2
$ 6,230.5
$ 6,515.1
$ 6,765.0
$ 6,994.8
$ 7,205.2
$ 7,407.1
$ 7,602.6
$ 7,671.6
$ 7,823.4
$ 101,065.4
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 127.4
$ 301.9
$ 514.7
$ 761.6
$ 932.5
$ 1,079.8
$ 1,206.3
$ 1,322.8
$ 1,432.1
$ 1,535.7
$ 1,634.5
$ 1,729.3
$ 1,820.7
$ 1,909.0
$ 1,994.5
$ 2,077.6
$ 2,158.4
$ 2,237.3
$ 2,284.4
$ 2,353.1
$ 29,413.3
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 19.5
$ 46.2
$ 78.8
$ 116.6
$ 142.6
$ 165.1
$ 184.3
$ 202.0
$ 218.4
$ 233.9
$ 248.9
$ 263.0
$ 276.9
$ 290.3
$ 303.2
$ 315.4
$ 327.2
$ 338.7
$ 346.2
$ 356.1
$ 4,473.1
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 292.9
$ 694.3
$ 1,182.3
$ 1,749.2
$ 2,143.7
$ 2,483.3
$ 2,774.1
$ 3,045.0
$ 3,299.3
$ 3,543.8
$ 3,773.6
$ 3,992.9
$ 4,210.9
$ 4,416.1
$ 4,615.7
$ 4,808.3
$ 4,999.8
$ 5,190.4
$ 5,296.6
$ 5,461.2
$ 67,973.3
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 252.5
$ 618.3
$ 1,067.6
$ 1,583.3
$ 1,941.7
$ 2,224.5
$ 2,442.2
$ 2,620.6
$ 2,770.5
$ 2,899.0
$ 3,010.9
$ 3,109.9
$ 3,198.7
$ 3,279.3
$ 3,353.4
$ 3,422.3
$ 3,486.8
$ 3,548.0
$ 3,559.6
$ 3,606.2
$ 51,995.4
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 38.6
$ 94.7
$ 163.4
$ 242.4
$ 296.8
$ 340.1
$ 373.1
$ 400.2
$ 422.4
$ 441.6
$ 458.5
$ 473.0
$ 486.4
$ 498.8
$ 509.8
$ 519.5
$ 528.5
$ 537.2
$ 539.4
$ 545.7
$ 7,910.1
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 580.4
$ 1,422.2
$ 2,452.6
$ 3,636.8
$ 4,463.5
$ 5,115.9
$ 5,616.3
$ 6,032.4
$ 6,382.8
$ 6,690.0
$ 6,951.5
$ 7,180.5
$ 7,398.0
$ 7,586.3
$ 7,760.7
$ 7,920.4
$ 8,076.9
$ 8,231.1
$ 8,253.4
$ 8,369.4
$ 120,121.1
 Notes:  All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
        Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
 Source: Derived from Exhibits F.2J and F.2t.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
     Exhibit F.2v  Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 3%
                                                       Discount Rate
                                                    (All Water Systems)

TTHM - Preferred Alternative
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Ann.
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 116.3
$ 292.2
$ 513.3
$ 772.0
$ 978.5
$ 1,158.5
$ 1,307.9
$ 1,431.1
$ 1,527.0
$ 1,597.0
$ 1,647.0
$ 1,681.6
$ 1,704.3
$ 1,717.7
$ 1,723.7
$ 1,723.7
$ 1,718.9
$ 1,710.3
$ 1,676.5
$ 1,658.3
$ 26,655.9
$ 1,530.8
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 17.8
$ 44.7
$ 78.6
$ 118.2
$ 149.6
$ 177.2
$ 199.8
$ 218.5
$ 232.8
$ 243.3
$ 250.8
$ 255.8
$ 259.2
$ 261.3
$ 262.0
$ 261.6
$ 260.6
$ 259.0
$ 254.1
$ 251.0
$ 4,055.6
$ 232.9
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 267.3
$ 672.1
$ 1,179.3
$ 1,773.3
$ 2,249.3
$ 2,664.4
$ 3,007.9
$ 3,294.2
$ 3,518.0
$ 3,685.3
$ 3,802.5
$ 3,882.6
$ 3,941.8
$ 3,973.7
$ 3,989.1
$ 3,989.3
$ 3,981.7
$ 3,967.8
$ 3,887.1
$ 3,848.6
$ 61,575.3
$ 3,536.1
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 109.9
$ 252.8
$ 418.5
$ 601.2
$ 714.7
$ 803.4
$ 871.4
$ 927.8
$ 975.2
$ 1,015.2
$ 1,049.1
$ 1,077.7
$ 1,101.5
$ 1,121.3
$ 1,137.4
$ 1,150.3
$ 1,160.3
$ 1,167.6
$ 1,157.5
$ 1,157.6
$ 17,970.5
$ 1,032.0
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 16.8
$ 38.7
$ 64.0
$ 92.0
$ 109.3
$ 122.9
$ 133.1
$ 141.7
$ 148.7
$ 154.7
$ 159.7
$ 163.9
$ 167.5
$ 170.5
$ 172.9
$ 174.6
$ 175.9
$ 176.8
$ 175.4
$ 175.2
$ 2,734.3
$ 157.0
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 252.6
$ 581.5
$ 961.3
$ 1,380.9
$ 1,642.9
$ 1,847.8
$ 2,004.0
$ 2,135.7
$ 2,246.7
$ 2,342.9
$ 2,422.2
$ 2,488.2
$ 2,547.6
$ 2,594.0
$ 2,632.3
$ 2,662.2
$ 2,687.6
$ 2,708.8
$ 2,683.8
$ 2,686.5
$ 41,509.6
$ 2,383.8
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 217.8
$ 517.8
$ 868.1
$ 1,249.9
$ 1,488.1
$ 1,655.2
$ 1,764.3
$ 1,838.0
$ 1,886.6
$ 1,916.6
$ 1,932.6
$ 1,938.0
$ 1,935.3
$ 1,926.3
$ 1,912.4
$ 1,894.8
$ 1,874.3
$ 1,851.7
$ 1,803.6
$ 1,774.0
$ 32,245.5
$ 1,851.8
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 33.3
$ 79.3
$ 132.8
$ 191.3
$ 227.5
$ 253.1
$ 269.5
$ 280.7
$ 287.7
$ 292.0
$ 294.3
$ 294.8
$ 294.3
$ 293.0
$ 290.7
$ 287.6
$ 284.1
$ 280.4
$ 273.3
$ 268.5
$ 4,908.1
$ 281.9
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 500.7
$ 1,191.1
$ 1,994.2
$ 2,870.9
$ 3,420.9
$ 3,806.7
$ 4,057.4
$ 4,231.0
$ 4,346.4
$ 4,422.9
$ 4,461.9
$ 4,474.7
$ 4,475.9
$ 4,456.2
$ 4,425.8
$ 4,385.4
$ 4,341.7
$ 4,295.7
$ 4,181.9
$ 4,117.2
$ 74,458.4
$ 4,276.0
Notes:     Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005.
          Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate.
          Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
Source:    Derived from Exhibit F.2u.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
     Exhibit F.2w Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 7%
                                                       Discount Rate
                                                    (All Water Systems)

  TTHM - Preferred Alternative
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Ann.
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 96.1
$ 232.5
$ 393.2
$ 569.2
$ 694.4
$ 791.5
$ 860.1
$ 905.9
$ 930.6
$ 936.8
$ 930.0
$ 914.1
$ 891.8
$ 865.2
$ 835.8
$ 804.5
$ 772.3
$ 739.7
$ 697.9
$ 664.6
$ 14,526.2
$ 1,246.5
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 14.7
$ 35.6
$ 60.2
$ 87.1
$ 106.2
$ 121.0
$ 131.4
$ 138.3
$ 141.9
$ 142.7
$ 141.6
$ 139.0
$ 135.6
$ 131.6
$ 127.0
$ 122.1
$ 117.1
$ 112.0
$ 105.8
$ 100.6
$ 2,211.5
$ 189.8
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 221.0
$ 534.8
$ 903.2
$ 1,307.4
$ 1,596.3
$ 1,820.3
$ 1,978.1
$ 2,085.4
$ 2,143.8
$ 2,161.9
$ 2,147.2
$ 2,110.5
$ 2,062.5
$ 2,001.5
$ 1,934.1
$ 1,862.0
$ 1,788.9
$ 1,716.0
$ 1,618.3
$ 1,542.4
$ 33,535.5
$ 2,877.7
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 90.8
$ 201.1
$ 320.5
$ 443.2
$ 507.2
$ 548.9
$ 573.1
$ 587.3
$ 594.3
$ 595.6
$ 592.4
$ 585.8
$ 576.4
$ 564.8
$ 551.5
$ 536.9
$ 521.3
$ 505.0
$ 481.9
$ 463.9
$ 9,841.9
$ 844.5
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 13.9
$ 30.8
$ 49.0
$ 67.8
$ 77.5
$ 83.9
$ 87.5
$ 89.7
$ 90.6
$ 90.7
$ 90.2
$ 89.1
$ 87.6
$ 85.9
$ 83.8
$ 81.5
$ 79.0
$ 76.5
$ 73.0
$ 70.2
$ 1,498.5
$ 128.6
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 208.8
$ 462.6
$ 736.3
$ 1,018.1
$ 1,166.0
$ 1,262.4
$ 1,317.9
$ 1,352.0
$ 1,369.1
$ 1,374.4
$ 1,367.7
$ 1,352.5
$ 1,333.1
$ 1,306.6
$ 1,276.3
$ 1,242.6
$ 1,207.5
$ 1,171.5
$ 1,117.3
$ 1,076.7
$ 22,719.3
$ 1,949.6
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 180.0
$ 412.0
$ 664.9
$ 921.5
$ 1,056.1
$ 1,130.8
$ 1,160.3
$ 1,163.6
$ 1,149.7
$ 1,124.3
$ 1,091.3
$ 1,053.4
$ 1,012.6
$ 970.2
$ 927.3
$ 884.4
$ 842.1
$ 800.8
$ 750.9
$ 710.9
$ 18,007.2
$ 1,545.2
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 27.6
$ 63.1
$ 101.7
$ 141.1
$ 161.5
$ 172.9
$ 177.2
$ 177.7
$ 175.3
$ 171.3
$ 166.2
$ 160.2
$ 154.0
$ 147.6
$ 141.0
$ 134.2
$ 127.7
$ 121.3
$ 113.8
$ 107.6
$ 2,742.7
$ 235.4
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 413.8
$ 947.7
$ 1,527.4
$ 2,116.7
$ 2,427.9
$ 2,600.7
$ 2,668.3
$ 2,678.4
$ 2,648.6
$ 2,594.5
$ 2,519.5
$ 2,432.3
$ 2,342.0
$ 2,244.5
$ 2,145.9
$ 2,046.8
$ 1,950.7
$ 1,857.9
$ 1,741.0
$ 1,650.0
$ 41,554.5
$ 3,565.8
  Notes:    Present values in millions of 2003 dollars.  Estimates are discounted to 2005.
           Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate.
           Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
  Source:    Derived from Exhibit F.2u.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
                      Exhibit F.2x Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 3% Discount Rate, by Small & Large Size Categories
                                                                                          (Surface Water Systems)
  TTHM - Preferred Alternative
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Ann.
Small Systems
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.9
$ 7.3
$ 12.8
$ 19.2
$ 26.4
$ 34.4
$ 40.1
$ 44.8
$ 48.7
$ 51.7
$ 54.0
$ 55.7
$ 56.8
$ 57.5
$ 57.9
$ 58.1
$ 58.1
$ 58.0
$ 56.9
$ 56.4
$ 857.7
$ 49.3
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.4
$ 1.1
$ 2.0
$ 2.9
$ 4.0
$ 5.3
$ 6.1
$ 6.8
$ 7.4
$ 7.9
$ 8.2
$ 8.5
$ 8.6
$ 8.7
$ 8.8
$ 8.8
$ 8.8
$ 8.8
$ 8.6
$ 8.5
$ 130.5
$ 7.5
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 6.6
$ 16.7
$ 29.3
$ 44.1
$ 60.8
$ 79.0
$ 92.3
$ 103.2
$ 112.1
$ 119.4
$ 124.7
$ 128.5
$ 131.3
$ 133.1
$ 134.1
$ 134.5
$ 134.6
$ 134.5
$ 132.0
$ 130.9
$ 1,981.7
$ 113.8
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.4
$ 5.7
$ 9.5
$ 13.7
$ 18.3
$ 23.2
$ 26.1
$ 28.4
$ 30.4
$ 32.1
$ 33.6
$ 34.8
$ 35.9
$ 36.7
$ 37.5
$ 38.1
$ 38.6
$ 39.0
$ 38.8
$ 38.9
$ 561.9
$ 32.3
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.4
$ 0.9
$ 1.5
$ 2.1
$ 2.8
$ 3.5
$ 4.0
$ 4.3
$ 4.6
$ 4.9
$ 5.1
$ 5.3
$ 5.5
$ 5.6
$ 5.7
$ 5.8
$ 5.9
$ 5.9
$ 5.9
$ 5.9
$ 85.5
$ 4.9
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 5.6
$ 13.0
$ 21.8
$ 31.5
$ 42.1
$ 53.3
$ 60.0
$ 65.5
$ 70.1
$ 74.1
$ 77.5
$ 80.4
$ 82.9
$ 85.0
$ 86.8
$ 88.2
$ 89.5
$ 90.5
$ 90.0
$ 90.4
$ 1,298.2
$ 74.6
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 5.1
$ 12.3
$ 20.9
$ 30.3
$ 40.2
$ 50.4
$ 56.2
$ 60.1
$ 62.7
$ 64.4
$ 65.5
$ 66.1
$ 66.2
$ 66.1
$ 65.8
$ 65.3
$ 64.7
$ 63.9
$ 62.3
$ 61.3
$ 1,049.6
$ 60.3
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.8
$ 1.9
$ 3.2
$ 4.6
$ 6.1
$ 7.7
$ 8.6
$ 9.2
$ 9.6
$ 9.8
$ 10.0
$ 10.0
$ 10.1
$ 10.1
$ 10.0
$ 9.9
$ 9.8
$ 9.7
$ 9.4
$ 9.3
$ 159.7
$ 9.2
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 11.8
$ 28.4
$ 48.0
$ 69.5
$ 92.4
$ 115.9
$ 129.1
$ 138.2
$ 144.4
$ 148.7
$ 151.2
$ 152.5
$ 153.2
$ 153.0
$ 152.3
$ 151.1
$ 149.8
$ 148.3
$ 144.4
$ 142.2
$ 2,424.3
$ 139.2
Large Systems
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 110.0
$ 276.3
$ 485.4
$ 730.0
$ 921.7
$ 1,086.8
$ 1,225.0
$ 1,339.0
$ 1,427.5
$ 1,491.7
$ 1,537.4
$ 1,568.9
$ 1,589.6
$ 1,601.6
$ 1,606.8
$ 1,606.5
$ 1,601.8
$ 1,593.6
$ 1,561.9
$ 1,544.8
$ 24,906.1
$ 1,430.3
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 16.8
$ 42.3
$ 74.3
$ 111.7
$ 140.9
$ 166.2
$ 187.1
$ 204.5
$ 217.7
$ 227.2
$ 234.1
$ 238.6
$ 241.7
$ 243.6
$ 244.3
$ 243.9
$ 242.8
$ 241.3
$ 236.7
$ 233.8
$ 3,789.4
$ 217.6
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 252.8
$ 635.5
$ 1,115.0
$ 1,676.7
$ 2,118.8
$ 2,499.4
$ 2,817.1
$ 3,082.1
$ 3,288.7
$ 3,442.3
$ 3,549.3
$ 3,622.4
$ 3,676.3
$ 3,705.1
$ 3,718.5
$ 3,718.1
$ 3,710.5
$ 3,697.0
$ 3,621.5
$ 3,585.3
$ 57,532.7
$ 3,304.0
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 104.6
$ 240.4
$ 397.7
$ 571.1
$ 675.6
$ 755.5
$ 817.9
$ 869.6
$ 913.1
$ 949.9
$ 981.0
$ 1,007.1
$ 1,028.9
$ 1,046.9
$ 1,061.6
$ 1,073.3
$ 1,082.3
$ 1,088.9
$ 1,079.1
$ 1,079.0
$ 16,823.4
$ 966.1
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 16.0
$ 36.8
$ 60.9
$ 87.4
$ 103.3
$ 115.5
$ 124.9
$ 132.8
$ 139.2
$ 144.7
$ 149.4
$ 153.2
$ 156.5
$ 159.2
$ 161.4
$ 162.9
$ 164.1
$ 164.9
$ 163.5
$ 163.3
$ 2,559.8
$ 147.0
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 240.4
$ 552.9
$ 913.6
$ 1,311.8
$ 1,553.1
$ 1,737.5
$ 1,880.9
$ 2,001.8
$ 2,103.7
$ 2,192.1
$ 2,264.8
$ 2,325.2
$ 2,379.7
$ 2,422.0
$ 2,456.8
$ 2,484.0
$ 2,507.0
$ 2,526.1
$ 2,502.2
$ 2,504.2
$ 38,859.5
$ 2,231.6
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 206.6
$ 490.8
$ 822.3
$ 1,183.6
$ 1,402.2
$ 1,550.9
$ 1,649.2
$ 1,715.7
$ 1,759.4
$ 1,786.2
$ 1,800.3
$ 1,804.8
$ 1,801.8
$ 1,793.1
$ 1,780.0
$ 1,763.5
$ 1,744.3
$ 1,723.2
$ 1,678.4
$ 1,650.8
$ 30,107.1
$ 1,729.0
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 31.6
$ 75.2
$ 125.8
$ 181.2
$ 214.4
$ 237.2
$ 251.9
$ 262.0
$ 268.3
$ 272.1
$ 274.1
$ 274.5
$ 274.0
$ 272.7
$ 270.6
$ 267.7
$ 264.4
$ 260.9
$ 254.3
$ 249.8
$ 4,582.7
$ 263.2
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 474.9
$ 1,128.9
$ 1,889.1
$ 2,718.6
$ 3,223.4
$ 3,566.8
$ 3,792.8
$ 3,949.4
$ 4,053.3
$ 4,122.0
$ 4,156.4
$ 4,167.0
$ 4,167.2
$ 4,148.1
$ 4,119.4
$ 4,081.4
$ 4,040.6
$ 3,997.6
$ 3,891.6
$ 3,831.3
$ 69,519.7
$ 3,992.4
            Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005.
            Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate.
            Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
            Derived from Exhibits F.2a through F.2i.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
                                                                                                                                                                                             December 2005

-------
                      Exhibit F.2y Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 7% Discount Rate, by Small & Large Size Categories
                                                                                          (Surface Water Systems)
  TTHM - Preferred Alternative
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Ann.
Small Systems
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.4
$ 5.8
$ 9.8
$ 14.2
$ 18.8
$ 23.5
$ 26.4
$ 28.4
$ 29.7
$ 30.3
$ 30.5
$ 30.3
$ 29.7
$ 29.0
$ 28.1
$ 27.1
$ 26.1
$ 25.1
$ 23.7
$ 22.6
$ 461.2
$ 39.6
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.4
$ 0.9
$ 1.5
$ 2.2
$ 2.9
$ 3.6
$ 4.0
$ 4.3
$ 4.5
$ 4.6
$ 4.6
$ 4.6
$ 4.5
$ 4.4
$ 4.3
$ 4.1
$ 4.0
$ 3.8
$ 3.6
$ 3.4
$ 70.2
$ 6.0
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 5.5
$ 13.3
$ 22.5
$ 32.5
$ 43.1
$ 54.0
$ 60.7
$ 65.3
$ 68.3
$ 70.0
$ 70.4
$ 69.9
$ 68.7
$ 67.0
$ 65.0
$ 62.8
$ 60.5
$ 58.2
$ 54.9
$ 52.4
$ 1,065.1
$ 91.4
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.0
$ 4.5
$ 7.3
$ 10.1
$ 13.0
$ 15.8
$ 17.1
$ 18.0
$ 18.5
$ 18.8
$ 19.0
$ 18.9
$ 18.8
$ 18.5
$ 18.2
$ 17.8
$ 17.4
$ 16.9
$ 16.2
$ 15.6
$ 302.4
$ 25.9
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.3
$ 0.7
$ 1.1
$ 1.5
$ 2.0
$ 2.4
$ 2.6
$ 2.7
$ 2.8
$ 2.9
$ 2.9
$ 2.9
$ 2.9
$ 2.8
$ 2.8
$ 2.7
$ 2.6
$ 2.6
$ 2.4
$ 2.4
$ 46.0
$ 3.9
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 4.6
$ 10.4
$ 16.7
$ 23.2
$ 29.9
$ 36.4
$ 39.4
$ 41.5
$ 42.7
$ 43.5
$ 43.8
$ 43.7
$ 43.4
$ 42.8
$ 42.1
$ 41.2
$ 40.2
$ 39.2
$ 37.5
$ 36.2
$ 698.2
$ 59.9
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 4.2
$ 9.8
$ 16.0
$ 22.3
$ 28.5
$ 34.4
$ 36.9
$ 38.0
$ 38.2
$ 37.8
$ 37.0
$ 35.9
$ 34.7
$ 33.3
$ 31.9
$ 30.5
$ 29.0
$ 27.6
$ 25.9
$ 24.6
$ 576.6
$ 49.5
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.6
$ 1.5
$ 2.4
$ 3.4
$ 4.4
$ 5.3
$ 5.6
$ 5.8
$ 5.8
$ 5.8
$ 5.6
$ 5.5
$ 5.3
$ 5.1
$ 4.8
$ 4.6
$ 4.4
$ 4.2
$ 3.9
$ 3.7
$ 87.8
$ 7.5
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 9.7
$ 22.6
$ 36.7
$ 51.3
$ 65.5
$ 79.2
$ 84.9
$ 87.5
$ 88.0
$ 87.2
$ 85.4
$ 82.9
$ 80.2
$ 77.0
$ 73.8
$ 70.5
$ 67.3
$ 64.1
$ 60.1
$ 57.0
$ 1,331.1
$ 114.2
Large Systems
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 90.9
$ 219.8
$ 371.7
$ 538.2
$ 654.2
$ 742.5
$ 805.6
$ 847.6
$ 869.9
$ 875.0
$ 868.1
$ 852.8
$ 831.7
$ 806.7
$ 779.1
$ 749.8
$ 719.7
$ 689.2
$ 650.3
$ 619.1
$ 13,581.9
$ 1,165.5
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 13.9
$ 33.7
$ 56.9
$ 82.4
$ 100.0
$ 113.5
$ 123.1
$ 129.4
$ 132.6
$ 133.3
$ 132.2
$ 129.7
$ 126.5
$ 122.7
$ 118.4
$ 113.8
$ 109.1
$ 104.4
$ 98.5
$ 93.7
$ 2,067.8
$ 177.4
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 209.0
$ 505.6
$ 854.0
$ 1,236.2
$ 1,503.8
$ 1,707.6
$ 1,852.6
$ 1,951.2
$ 2,004.1
$ 2,019.3
$ 2,004.2
$ 1,969.0
$ 1,923.6
$ 1,866.2
$ 1,803.0
$ 1,735.4
$ 1,667.1
$ 1,598.9
$ 1,507.7
$ 1,436.8
$ 31,355.3
$ 2,690.6
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 86.4
$ 191.2
$ 304.6
$ 421.1
$ 479.5
$ 516.1
$ 537.9
$ 550.5
$ 556.5
$ 557.2
$ 553.9
$ 547.4
$ 538.4
$ 527.3
$ 514.7
$ 500.9
$ 486.3
$ 470.9
$ 449.3
$ 432.4
$ 9,222.6
$ 791.4
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 13.2
$ 29.3
$ 46.6
$ 64.5
$ 73.3
$ 78.9
$ 82.2
$ 84.1
$ 84.8
$ 84.9
$ 84.3
$ 83.3
$ 81.9
$ 80.2
$ 78.2
$ 76.0
$ 73.7
$ 71.3
$ 68.1
$ 65.4
$ 1,404.3
$ 120.5
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 198.7
$ 439.9
$ 699.7
$ 967.2
$ 1,102.2
$ 1,187.0
$ 1,236.9
$ 1,267.2
$ 1,282.0
$ 1,285.9
$ 1,278.9
$ 1,263.9
$ 1,245.2
$ 1,219.9
$ 1,191.2
$ 1,159.4
$ 1,126.3
$ 1,092.5
$ 1,041.7
$ 1,003.6
$ 21,289.3
$ 1,826.8
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 170.7
$ 390.5
$ 629.8
$ 872.6
$ 995.2
$ 1,059.5
$ 1,084.6
$ 1,086.1
$ 1,072.2
$ 1,047.8
$ 1,016.6
$ 981.0
$ 942.8
$ 903.2
$ 863.1
$ 823.1
$ 783.7
$ 745.2
$ 698.8
$ 661.6
$ 16,828.1
$ 1,444.0
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 26.1
$ 59.8
$ 96.4
$ 133.6
$ 152.1
$ 162.0
$ 165.7
$ 165.8
$ 163.5
$ 159.6
$ 154.8
$ 149.2
$ 143.4
$ 137.4
$ 131.2
$ 124.9
$ 118.8
$ 112.8
$ 105.9
$ 100.1
$ 2,563.2
$ 219.9
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 392.5
$ 898.2
$ 1,446.9
$ 2,004.3
$ 2,287.7
$ 2,436.8
$ 2,494.3
$ 2,500.2
$ 2,470.0
$ 2,418.0
$ 2,347.0
$ 2,265.0
$ 2,180.5
$ 2,089.4
$ 1,997.3
$ 1,904.9
$ 1,815.4
$ 1,728.9
$ 1,620.2
$ 1,535.4
$ 38,832.9
$ 3,332.3
           Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005.
           Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate.
           Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
           Derived from Exhibits F.2a through F.2i.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
                                                                                                                                                                                             December 2005

-------
                      Exhibit F.2z Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 3% Discount Rate, by Small & Large Size Categories
                                                                                         (Ground Water Systems)
 TTHM - Preferred Alternative
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Ann.
Small Systems
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.1
$ 2.8
$ 5.0
$ 7.5
$ 10.4
$ 13.5
$ 15.7
$ 17.6
$ 19.1
$ 20.3
$ 21.2
$ 21.8
$ 22.3
$ 22.6
$ 22.7
$ 22.8
$ 22.8
$ 22.7
$ 22.3
$ 22.1
$ 336.3
$ 19.3
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.4
$ 0.8
$ 1.2
$ 1.6
$ 2.1
$ 2.4
$ 2.7
$ 2.9
$ 3.1
$ 3.2
$ 3.3
$ 3.4
$ 3.4
$ 3.5
$ 3.5
$ 3.5
$ 3.4
$ 3.4
$ 3.3
$ 51.2
$ 2.9
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.6
$ 6.5
$ 11.5
$ 17.3
$ 23.8
$ 31.0
$ 36.2
$ 40.5
$ 44.0
$ 46.8
$ 48.9
$ 50.4
$ 51.5
$ 52.2
$ 52.6
$ 52.8
$ 52.8
$ 52.7
$ 51.7
$ 51.3
$ 777.1
$ 44.6
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.0
$ 2.2
$ 3.7
$ 5.4
$ 7.2
$ 9.1
$ 10.2
$ 11.2
$ 11.9
$ 12.6
$ 13.2
$ 13.7
$ 14.1
$ 14.4
$ 14.7
$ 14.9
$ 15.1
$ 15.3
$ 15.2
$ 15.3
$ 220.4
$ 12.7
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.3
$ 0.6
$ 0.8
$ 1.1
$ 1.4
$ 1.6
$ 1.7
$ 1.8
$ 1.9
$ 2.0
$ 2.1
$ 2.1
$ 2.2
$ 2.2
$ 2.3
$ 2.3
$ 2.3
$ 2.3
$ 2.3
$ 33.5
$ 1.9
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.2
$ 5.1
$ 8.5
$ 12.4
$ 16.5
$ 20.9
$ 23.5
$ 25.7
$ 27.5
$ 29.1
$ 30.4
$ 31.5
$ 32.5
$ 33.3
$ 34.0
$ 34.6
$ 35.1
$ 35.5
$ 35.3
$ 35.4
$ 509.1
$ 29.2
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.0
$ 4.8
$ 8.2
$ 11.9
$ 15.8
$ 19.8
$ 22.0
$ 23.5
$ 24.6
$ 25.3
$ 25.7
$ 25.9
$ 26.0
$ 25.9
$ 25.8
$ 25.6
$ 25.3
$ 25.1
$ 24.4
$ 24.0
$ 411.6
$ 23.6
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.3
$ 0.7
$ 1.3
$ 1.8
$ 2.4
$ 3.0
$ 3.4
$ 3.6
$ 3.7
$ 3.8
$ 3.9
$ 3.9
$ 3.9
$ 3.9
$ 3.9
$ 3.9
$ 3.8
$ 3.8
$ 3.7
$ 3.6
$ 62.6
$ 3.6
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 4.6
$ 11.1
$ 18.8
$ 27.3
$ 36.2
$ 45.4
$ 50.6
$ 54.2
$ 56.6
$ 58.3
$ 59.3
$ 59.8
$ 60.1
$ 60.0
$ 59.7
$ 59.2
$ 58.7
$ 58.1
$ 56.6
$ 55.8
$ 950.6
$ 54.6
Large Systems
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.3
$ 5.8
$ 10.2
$ 15.3
$ 19.9
$ 23.9
$ 27.1
$ 29.7
$ 31.8
$ 33.3
$ 34.4
$ 35.2
$ 35.7
$ 36.1
$ 36.2
$ 36.3
$ 36.2
$ 36.0
$ 35.3
$ 35.0
$ 555.8
$ 31.9
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.4
$ 0.9
$ 1.6
$ 2.3
$ 3.0
$ 3.7
$ 4.1
$ 4.5
$ 4.8
$ 5.1
$ 5.2
$ 5.4
$ 5.4
$ 5.5
$ 5.5
$ 5.5
$ 5.5
$ 5.5
$ 5.4
$ 5.3
$ 84.6
$ 4.9
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 5.3
$ 13.3
$ 23.5
$ 35.3
$ 45.8
$ 55.0
$ 62.3
$ 68.4
$ 73.2
$ 76.9
$ 79.5
$ 81.3
$ 82.7
$ 83.4
$ 83.8
$ 83.9
$ 83.8
$ 83.6
$ 81.9
$ 81.1
$ 1,283.9
$ 73.7
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.9
$ 4.5
$ 7.6
$ 11.0
$ 13.6
$ 15.7
$ 17.3
$ 18.6
$ 19.7
$ 20.6
$ 21.4
$ 22.1
$ 22.7
$ 23.2
$ 23.6
$ 24.0
$ 24.2
$ 24.4
$ 24.3
$ 24.3
$ 364.8
$ 20.9
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.3
$ 0.7
$ 1.2
$ 1.7
$ 2.1
$ 2.4
$ 2.6
$ 2.8
$ 3.0
$ 3.1
$ 3.3
$ 3.4
$ 3.5
$ 3.5
$ 3.6
$ 3.6
$ 3.7
$ 3.7
$ 3.7
$ 3.7
$ 55.5
$ 3.2
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 4.5
$ 10.4
$ 17.4
$ 25.2
$ 31.3
$ 36.1
$ 39.7
$ 42.7
$ 45.3
$ 47.6
$ 49.5
$ 51.1
$ 52.5
$ 53.7
$ 54.7
$ 55.5
$ 56.1
$ 56.7
$ 56.3
$ 56.5
$ 842.8
$ 48.4
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 4.1
$ 9.9
$ 16.7
$ 24.2
$ 30.0
$ 34.2
$ 36.9
$ 38.7
$ 39.9
$ 40.7
$ 41.1
$ 41.3
$ 41.3
$ 41.1
$ 40.8
$ 40.5
$ 40.0
$ 39.5
$ 38.5
$ 37.8
$ 677.2
$ 38.9
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.6
$ 1.5
$ 2.6
$ 3.7
$ 4.6
$ 5.2
$ 5.6
$ 5.9
$ 6.1
$ 6.2
$ 6.3
$ 6.3
$ 6.3
$ 6.3
$ 6.2
$ 6.1
$ 6.1
$ 6.0
$ 5.8
$ 5.7
$ 103.1
$ 5.9
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 9.4
$ 22.7
$ 38.3
$ 55.6
$ 68.9
$ 78.6
$ 84.8
$ 89.1
$ 92.0
$ 93.9
$ 95.0
$ 95.4
$ 95.5
$ 95.1
$ 94.5
$ 93.6
$ 92.7
$ 91.7
$ 89.2
$ 87.8
$ 1,563.8
$ 89.8
          Present values in millions of 2003 dollars.  Estimates are discounted to 2005.
          Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate.
          Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
          Derived from Exhibits F.2k through F.2s.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
                                                                                                                                                                                            December 2005

-------
                     Exhibit F.2aa  Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 7% Discount Rate, by Small & Large Size Categories
                                                                                         (Ground Water Systems)
  TTHM - Preferred Alternative
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Ann.
Small Systems
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.9
$ 2.3
$ 3.8
$ 5.5
$ 7.4
$ 9.2
$ 10.3
$ 11.1
$ 11.6
$ 11.9
$ 12.0
$ 11.9
$ 11.6
$ 11.4
$ 11.0
$ 10.6
$ 10.2
$ 9.8
$ 9.3
$ 8.9
$ 180.9
$ 15.5
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.3
$ 0.6
$ 0.8
$ 1.1
$ 1.4
$ 1.6
$ 1.7
$ 1.8
$ 1.8
$ 1.8
$ 1.8
$ 1.8
$ 1.7
$ 1.7
$ 1.6
$ 1.6
$ 1.5
$ 1.4
$ 1.3
$ 27.5
$ 2.4
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.1
$ 5.2
$ 8.8
$ 12.7
$ 16.9
$ 21.2
$ 23.8
$ 25.6
$ 26.8
$ 27.5
$ 27.6
$ 27.4
$ 26.9
$ 26.3
$ 25.5
$ 24.6
$ 23.7
$ 22.8
$ 21.5
$ 20.6
$ 417.6
$ 35.8
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.8
$ 1.8
$ 2.8
$ 4.0
$ 5.1
$ 6.2
$ 6.7
$ 7.1
$ 7.3
$ 7.4
$ 7.4
$ 7.4
$ 7.4
$ 7.3
$ 7.1
$ 7.0
$ 6.8
$ 6.6
$ 6.3
$ 6.1
$ 118.6
$ 10.2
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.6
$ 0.8
$ 0.9
$ 1.0
$ 1.1
$ 1.1
$ 1.1
$ 1.1
$ 1.1
$ 1.1
$ 1.1
$ 1.1
$ 1.1
$ 1.0
$ 1.0
$ 1.0
$ 0.9
$ 18.1
$ 1.5
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.8
$ 4.1
$ 6.5
$ 9.1
$ 11.7
$ 14.3
$ 15.5
$ 16.3
$ 16.8
$ 17.1
$ 17.2
$ 17.1
$ 17.0
$ 16.8
$ 16.5
$ 16.1
$ 15.8
$ 15.4
$ 14.7
$ 14.2
$ 273.9
$ 23.5
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.7
$ 3.9
$ 6.3
$ 8.8
$ 11.2
$ 13.5
$ 14.5
$ 14.9
$ 15.0
$ 14.8
$ 14.5
$ 14.1
$ 13.6
$ 13.1
$ 12.5
$ 11.9
$ 11.4
$ 10.8
$ 10.2
$ 9.6
$ 226.1
$ 19.4
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.3
$ 0.6
$ 1.0
$ 1.3
$ 1.7
$ 2.1
$ 2.2
$ 2.3
$ 2.3
$ 2.3
$ 2.2
$ 2.1
$ 2.1
$ 2.0
$ 1.9
$ 1.8
$ 1.7
$ 1.6
$ 1.5
$ 1.5
$ 34.4
$ 3.0
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 3.8
$ 8.9
$ 14.4
$ 20.1
$ 25.7
$ 31.0
$ 33.3
$ 34.3
$ 34.5
$ 34.2
$ 33.5
$ 32.5
$ 31.4
$ 30.2
$ 28.9
$ 27.7
$ 26.4
$ 25.1
$ 23.6
$ 22.4
$ 521.9
$ 44.8
Large Systems
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.9
$ 4.6
$ 7.8
$ 11.3
$ 14.1
$ 16.3
$ 17.8
$ 18.8
$ 19.4
$ 19.5
$ 19.4
$ 19.1
$ 18.7
$ 18.2
$ 17.6
$ 16.9
$ 16.3
$ 15.6
$ 14.7
$ 14.0
$ 302.1
$ 25.9
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.3
$ 0.7
$ 1.2
$ 1.7
$ 2.2
$ 2.5
$ 2.7
$ 2.9
$ 3.0
$ 3.0
$ 3.0
$ 2.9
$ 2.8
$ 2.8
$ 2.7
$ 2.6
$ 2.5
$ 2.4
$ 2.2
$ 2.1
$ 46.0
$ 3.9
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 4.4
$ 10.6
$ 18.0
$ 26.0
$ 32.5
$ 37.6
$ 41.0
$ 43.3
$ 44.6
$ 45.1
$ 44.9
$ 44.2
$ 43.3
$ 42.0
$ 40.6
$ 39.2
$ 37.7
$ 36.1
$ 34.1
$ 32.5
$ 697.6
$ 59.9
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.6
$ 3.6
$ 5.8
$ 8.1
$ 9.7
$ 10.7
$ 11.4
$ 11.8
$ 12.0
$ 12.1
$ 12.1
$ 12.0
$ 11.9
$ 11.7
$ 11.5
$ 11.2
$ 10.9
$ 10.6
$ 10.1
$ 9.8
$ 198.3
$ 17.0
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.6
$ 0.9
$ 1.2
$ 1.5
$ 1.6
$ 1.7
$ 1.8
$ 1.8
$ 1.8
$ 1.8
$ 1.8
$ 1.8
$ 1.8
$ 1.7
$ 1.7
$ 1.7
$ 1.6
$ 1.5
$ 1.5
$ 30.2
$ 2.6
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 3.7
$ 8.3
$ 13.3
$ 18.6
$ 22.2
$ 24.7
$ 26.1
$ 27.1
$ 27.6
$ 27.9
$ 27.9
$ 27.8
$ 27.5
$ 27.0
$ 26.5
$ 25.9
$ 25.2
$ 24.5
$ 23.4
$ 22.6
$ 457.9
$ 39.3
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 3.4
$ 7.8
$ 12.8
$ 17.8
$ 21.3
$ 23.4
$ 24.3
$ 24.5
$ 24.3
$ 23.9
$ 23.2
$ 22.5
$ 21.6
$ 20.7
$ 19.8
$ 18.9
$ 18.0
$ 17.1
$ 16.0
$ 15.2
$ 376.4
$ 32.3
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.5
$ 1.2
$ 2.0
$ 2.7
$ 3.3
$ 3.6
$ 3.7
$ 3.7
$ 3.7
$ 3.6
$ 3.5
$ 3.4
$ 3.3
$ 3.1
$ 3.0
$ 2.9
$ 2.7
$ 2.6
$ 2.4
$ 2.3
$ 57.3
$ 4.9
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 7.8
$ 18.0
$ 29.4
$ 41.0
$ 48.9
$ 53.7
$ 55.8
$ 56.4
$ 56.1
$ 55.1
$ 53.6
$ 51.8
$ 50.0
$ 47.9
$ 45.8
$ 43.7
$ 41.6
$ 39.7
$ 37.1
$ 35.2
$ 868.6
$ 74.5
           Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005.
           Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate.
           Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
           Derived from Exhibits F.2k through F.2s.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
                                                                                                                                                                                            December 2005

-------
                                                                                          Exhibit F.2ab Mean Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 3% Discount Rate, by System Size
                                                                                                                                                          (All Systems)
         TTHM - Preferred Alternative
                                             Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model
                                                                                                                                                    Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model
                                            1,000-3,299  3,300-9,999
                                                                10,000-49,999 50,000-99,999
                                                                                                                                                     1,000-3,299 3,300-9,999 10,000-49,999    99,999     999,999
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    1,000-3,299   9,999
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 99,999     999,999
          2005
          2006
          2007
          2008
          2009
          2010
          2011
          2012
          2013
          2020
          2021
          2022
          2023
          2024
          2025
          2026
          2027
$    2 •
$    2 I
                                                            $   374
                                                            $   377
$    3E
$    3<
$    3!
$    3!
$    5 '
$    5 '
$    5 '
$    5 [
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBF/?
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   December2005

-------
                                                                                 Exhibit F.2ac  Mean Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphom;
                                                                                                                                              (All Systems)
                                                                                                                                                             s Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 7% Discount Rate, by System Size
     TTHM - Preferred Alternative
Smokin
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Ann.
<100
$ -
$ -
$ -
S -
$ 00
$ 00
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 02
$ 02
$ 02
$ 02
$ 02
$ 02
$ 02
$ 02
$ 02

$ 02
$ 02
$ 02
$ 02
S 3.4

100-499
$
$
$
$
$ 0 1
S 03
$ 06
$ 08
S 1 4
$ 1 6
$ 1 7
$ 1 7
$ 18
$ 1 7
S 1 7

$ 1 5
S 1 5
$ 1 4
$ 1 3

500-999
$
$
S
$
$ 02
$ 04
$ 08
$ 1 1
$ 18
$ 20
$ 22
$ 23
$ 24
$ 24
$ 23
$ 23
$ 22

$ 20
$ 1 9

1,000-3,299
$
S
$
$
$ 09
$ 2 1
$ 36
$ 5 1
$ 85
$ 96
$ 103
$ 108
$ 110
$ 111
$ 110
$ 108
$ 105

$ 95
$ 9 1
$ 86

g/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model
3,300-9,999
S
$
$
s
$ 2 1
S 5 1
$ 125
S 208
$ 234
$ 251
$ 263
S 269
$ 270
$ 263
$ 256
$ 240
$ 231
S 222
$ 21 0
$ 200

10,000-49,999
$
$
$
$
$ 108
S 26 1
S 1022
$ 1138
$ 121 B
$ 1268
S 1294
$ 1297
$ 1283
$ 1257
S 1224
$ 1144
$ 1100
S 1055
$ 950

50,000-99,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 91
S 220
$ 371
$ 538
S 774
$ 844
$ 890
S 925
$ 919
$ 904
$ 857
$ 797
$ 766
S 733
$ 692
$ 659

100,000-
999,999
$
$
S
$
$
$ 397
$ 960
$ 1624
$ 235 1
$ 3152
$ 3403
$ 3568
$ 3650
$ 366 1
$ 3624
$ 3555
$ 3464
$ 3357
$ 311 6
$ 2990
$ 2862
$ 2570

> 1,000 ,000
$
$
$
$
$
$ 332
$ 804
$ 1359
$ 2639
$ 2850
$ 3057
$ 3066
$ 3035
$ 2977
$ 2901
$ 261 0
$ 2504
$ 2397
$ 2152

Total
S
$
$
$
S
$ 961
$ 2325
$ 3932
S 5692
$ 791 5
$ 8601
S 9059
$ 9306
$ 9368
$ 9300
S 9141
$ 8652
S 8045
$ 7723
$ 7397
$ 6646

Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model
<100
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ 00
S 00
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
S 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
S 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
S 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
S 0 1


100-499
S
$
$
s
$ 0 1
S 03
$ 06
S 09
$ 1 0
$ 1 1
$ 1 1
S 1 1
$ 1 1
$ 1 1
$ 1 1
$ 1 1
$ 1 0
$ 1 0
S 1 0


500-999
$
$
$
$
$ 02
$ 03
$ 08
$ 1 0
$ 1 2
$ 1 3
$ 1 4
$ 1 5
$ 1 5
$ 1 5
$ 1 5
$ 1 4
$ 1 4
$ 1 3
$ 1 3
« ,2

1,000-3,299
S
$
$
s
$ 07
$ ,8
S 37
$ 47
$ 57
$ 62
S 65
$ 68
$ 69
S 69
$ 68
S 65
$ 63
$ B,


3,300-9,999
$
$
$
$
$ 18
$ 40
S 90
$ 115
$ 140
$ 152
S 159
$ 167
$ 168
S 168
$ 164
S 157
$ 154
$ 149


10,000-49,999
$
$
$
$
$ 102
$ 225
$ 497
$ 634
$ 730
$ 776
$ 805
$ 827
$ 827
$ 820
$ 795
$ 759
$ 738
$ 71 6


50,000-99,999
S
$
$
$
$ 86
$ 190
S 420
$ 501
$ 541
$ 565
S 580
$ 589
$ 586
S 580
$ 559
S 532
$ 51 6
$ 500


100,000-
999,999
S
$
$
$
$ 377
$ 834
$ 2043
$ 2175
$ 2258
S 2306
$ 2327
$ 231 1
S 2282
$ 2196
S 2085
$ 2023
$ 1959


>1, 000,000
$
$
$
$ 31 6
$ 699
S 1539
$ 171 3
$ 1823
$ 1892
S 1932
$ 1950
$ 1936
S 191 2
$ 1840
S 1746
$ 1694
$ 1640


Total
S
$
S
$ 90S
$ 201 1
S 4432
$ 5072
$ 5489
$ 573 1
S 5873
$ 5956
$ 5924
S 5858
$ 5648
S 5369
$ 521 3
$ 5050


Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model
<100
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ 00
$ 0 1
$ 02
$ 02
$ 03
$ 03
$ 03
$ 03
$ 03
$ 03
$ 02
$ 02
$ 02
$ 02


100-499
$
S
$
$
$ 02
S 06
$ 1 3
$ 1 7
S 20
$ 22
$ 22
S 22
$ 22
$ 2 1
$ 20
$ 1 7
S 1 6


500-999
S
$
$
$
$ 03
$ 08
S 1 7
$ 22
$ 27
$ 29
S 29
$ 30
$ 29
$ 29
S 28
$ 26
S 24
$ 23
$ 2 1
« ,B

1,000-3,299
$
$
S
$
$ 1 5
S 36
$ 58
$ 104
S 125
$ 134
$ 138
$ 139
S 137
$ 134
$ 130
S 121
$ 116
$ 111
$ 105
S 100
« BB

3,300-9,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 37
$ 142
$ 198
$ 252
$ 305
$ 327
$ 337
$ 338
$ 335
$ 327
$ 31 B
$ 295
$ 270
$ 257
$ 245
$ 21 7

10,000-
49,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 202
$ 462
$ 745
$ 1033
$ 131 4
$ 1504
$ 1583
$ 1607
$ 1582
$ 1543
$ 1495
$ 1383
$ 1324
$ 1265
$ 1205
$ 1147
$ 1020

50,000-99,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 170
$ 390
$ 629
$ 1040
$ 1113
$ 1145
$ 1149
$ 1137
$ 1112
$ 1080
$ 1043
$ 1003
$ 962
$ 835
$ 794
$ 705

100,000-
999,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 745
$ 1704
$ 2749
S 3809
$ 425 1
$ 4469
$ 455 1
S 4543
$ 4475
$ 4366
$ 4232
S 4080
$ 391 9
$ 3752
S 341 7
$ 3253
$ 3093
$ 2745

> 1,000,000
s
$
$
$
s
$ 624
$ 2303
S 319 1
$ 3560
$ 3743
$ 3811
S 3804
$ 3747
$ 3656
$ 3543
S 341 6
$ 328 1
$ 3142
$ 300 1
S 286 1
$ 2724
$ 2589
$ 2298

Total
$
$
S
$
$
$ 1800
S 4120
$ 6649
$ 921 5
$ 1,0561
S 1,1308
$ 1,1603
$ 1,1636
$ 1,1497
S 1,1243
$ 1,0913
$ 1,0534
$ 1,0126
S 9702
$ 9273
$ 842 1
S 8008
$ 7109
$ 18,007.2

           Denver) from
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          December 2005

-------
            Section F.3
Model Outputs - Preferred Alternative
         TTHM as Indicator
   Bronchitis for Non-Fatal Cases

-------

-------
       Exhibit F.3a Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                              (Surface Water Systems Serving <100 People)

     TTHM - Preferred Alternative

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 1.6
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.4
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 3.6
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 1.1
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.2
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 2.4
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 2.0
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.4
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 4.4
     Notes:  All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
            Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
     Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38b, E.38f, and E.38J.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
       Exhibit F.3b Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                            (Surface Water Systems Serving 100-499 People)

    TTHM - Preferred Alternative

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.6
$ 0.7
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.9
$ 1.0
$ 1.0
$ 1.0
$ 1.1
$ 1.1
$ 1.2
$ 1.2
$ 1.2
$ 1.2
$ 15.2
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 3.3
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.4
$ 0.6
$ 0.8
$ 1.1
$ 1.3
$ 1.5
$ 1.7
$ 1.8
$ 2.0
$ 2.1
$ 2.2
$ 2.3
$ 2.4
$ 2.5
$ 2.6
$ 2.7
$ 2.7
$ 2.7
$ 33.7
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 9.9
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 2.1
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.6
$ 0.7
$ 0.8
$ 1.0
$ 1.1
$ 1.1
$ 1.2
$ 1.3
$ 1.4
$ 1.5
$ 1.6
$ 1.6
$ 1.7
$ 1.8
$ 1.8
$ 1.9
$ 22.1
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.6
$ 0.7
$ 0.8
$ 0.9
$ 1.0
$ 1.0
$ 1.1
$ 1.1
$ 1.2
$ 1.2
$ 1.2
$ 1.3
$ 1.3
$ 1.3
$ 1.3
$ 1.3
$ 18.3
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 4.0
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.3
$ 0.6
$ 0.9
$ 1.2
$ 1.6
$ 1.8
$ 2.0
$ 2.2
$ 2.3
$ 2.4
$ 2.5
$ 2.6
$ 2.7
$ 2.7
$ 2.8
$ 2.9
$ 2.9
$ 2.9
$ 3.0
$ 40.5
    Notes:  All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
          Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
    Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38b, E.38f, and E.38J.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
       Exhibit F.3c Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                            (Surface Water Systems Serving 500-999 People)

    TTHM - Preferred Alternative

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.5
$ 0.6
$ 0.9
$ 1.0
$ 1.2
$ 1.3
$ 1.5
$ 1.6
$ 1.7
$ 1.8
$ 1.8
$ 1.9
$ 2.0
$ 2.0
$ 2.1
$ 2.1
$ 2.2
$ 26.7
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 5.8
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.4
$ 0.6
$ 1.0
$ 1.4
$ 1.9
$ 2.3
$ 2.6
$ 3.0
$ 3.2
$ 3.5
$ 3.7
$ 3.9
$ 4.1
$ 4.3
$ 4.4
$ 4.5
$ 4.7
$ 4.7
$ 4.8
$ 59.3
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.6
$ 0.7
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.9
$ 1.0
$ 1.0
$ 1.1
$ 1.2
$ 1.2
$ 1.3
$ 1.4
$ 1.4
$ 1.4
$ 1.5
$ 17.5
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 3.8
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.3
$ 0.5
$ 0.7
$ 1.0
$ 1.3
$ 1.5
$ 1.7
$ 1.9
$ 2.0
$ 2.2
$ 2.3
$ 2.5
$ 2.6
$ 2.8
$ 2.9
$ 3.0
$ 3.2
$ 3.2
$ 3.3
$ 38.9
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.3
$ 0.5
$ 0.7
$ 1.0
$ 1.3
$ 1.5
$ 1.6
$ 1.7
$ 1.8
$ 1.9
$ 2.0
$ 2.1
$ 2.1
$ 2.2
$ 2.2
$ 2.3
$ 2.3
$ 2.3
$ 2.4
$ 32.2
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 7.0
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.6
$ 1.1
$ 1.6
$ 2.2
$ 2.8
$ 3.2
$ 3.5
$ 3.8
$ 4.0
$ 4.2
$ 4.4
$ 4.6
$ 4.7
$ 4.8
$ 4.9
$ 5.1
$ 5.2
$ 5.2
$ 5.3
$ 71.4
    Notes:   All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
           Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
    Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38b,  E.38f, and E.38J.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
       Exhibit F.3d  Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                           (Surface Water Systems Serving 1,000-3,299 People)

   TTHM - Preferred Alternative
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.4
$ 1.0
$ 1.9
$ 2.9
$ 4.2
$ 5.6
$ 6.7
$ 7.7
$ 8.6
$ 9.5
$ 10.2
$ 10.8
$ 11.4
$ 11.9
$ 12.3
$ 12.8
$ 13.2
$ 13.5
$ 13.7
$ 14.0
$ 172.1
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.4
$ 0.6
$ 0.9
$ 1.2
$ 1.5
$ 1.7
$ 1.9
$ 2.1
$ 2.2
$ 2.3
$ 2.5
$ 2.6
$0 7
Z. /
$ 2.7
$ 2.8
$ 2.9
$ 2.9
$ 3.0
$ 37.2
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.9
$ 2.3
$ 4.2
$ 6.4
$ 9.1
$ 12.3
$ 14.8
$ 17.0
$ 19.1
$ 20.9
$ 22.6
$ 24.0
$ 25.3
$ 26.4
$ 27.4
$ 28.4
$ 29.3
$ 30.2
$ 30.5
$ 31.2
$ 382.3
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.3
$ 0.8
$ 1.4
$ 2.1
$ 2.9
$ 3.8
$ 4.4
$ 4.9
$ 5.4
$ 5.9
$ 6.3
$ 6.8
$ 7.2
$ 7.6
$ 8.0
$ 8.4
$ 8.7
$ 9.1
$ 9.3
$ 9.6
$ 112.8
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.5
$ 0.6
$ 0.8
$ 1.0
$ 1.1
$ 1.2
$ 1.3
$ 1.4
$ 1.5
$ 1.6
$ 1.6
$ 1.7
$ 1.8
$ 1.9
$ 2.0
$ 2.0
$ 2.1
$ 24.4
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.7
$ 1.8
$ 3.1
$ 4.6
$ 6.3
$ 8.3
$ 9.6
$ 10.8
$ 11.9
$ 13.0
$ 14.0
$ 15.0
$ 16.0
$ 16.9
$ 17.8
$ 18.6
$ 19.5
$ 20.3
$ 20.8
$ 21.5
$ 250.6
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.7
$ 1.8
$ 3.1
$ 4.6
$ 6.3
$ 8.2
$ 9.4
$ 10.3
$ 11.1
$ 11.8
$ 12.3
$ 12.8
$ 13.3
$ 13.7
$ 14.0
$ 14.3
$ 14.6
$ 14.9
$ 15.0
$ 15.2
$ 207.4
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.4
$ 0.7
$ 1.0
$ 1.4
$ 1.8
$ 2.0
$ 2.3
$ 2.4
$ 2.6
$ 2.7
$ 2.8
$ 2.9
$ 2.9
$ 3.0
$ 3.1
$ 3.1
$ 3.2
$ 3.2
$ 3.3
$ 44.9
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.6
$ 3.9
$ 6.8
$ 10.2
$ 13.9
$ 18.0
$ 20.7
$ 22.8
$ 24.6
$ 26.1
$ 27.4
$ 28.5
$ 29.5
$ 30.4
$ 31.2
$ 31.9
$ 32.6
$ 33.3
$ 33.4
$ 33.9
$ 460.4
   Notes:   All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
          Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
   Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38b,  E.38f, and E.38J.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
       Exhibit F.3e  Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                           (Surface Water Systems Serving 3,300-9,999 People)

 TTHM - Preferred Alternative
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.1
$ 3.0
$ 5.4
$ 8.4
$ 11.9
$ 15.9
$ 19.2
$ 22.1
$ 24.7
$ 27.1
$ 29.1
$ 30.9
$ 32.5
$ 34.0
$ 35.3
$ 36.5
$ 37.6
$ 38.7
$ 39.1
$ 39.9
$ 492.4
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.3
$ 0.7
$ 1.2
$ 1.8
$ 2.6
$ 3.5
$ 4.2
$ 4.8
$ 5.4
$ 5.9
$ 6.3
$ 6.7
$ 7.0
$ 7.3
$ 7.6
$ 7.9
$ 8.1
$ 8.3
$ 8.4
$ 8.6
$ 106.5
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.5
$ 6.6
$ 11.9
$ 18.4
$ 26.2
$ 35.1
$ 42.3
$ 48.8
$ 54.6
$ 59.9
$ 64.6
$ 68.7
$ 72.3
$ 75.5
$ 78.5
$ 81.2
$ 83.8
$ 86.3
$ 87.2
$ 89.2
$ 1,093.5
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.0
$ 2.3
$ 4.0
$ 6.0
$ 8.2
$ 10.7
$ 12.5
$ 14.0
$ 15.4
$ 16.8
$ 18.1
$ 19.4
$ 20.5
$ 21.7
$ 22.8
$ 23.9
$ 25.0
$ 26.0
$ 26.7
$ 27.6
$ 322.7
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.5
$ 0.9
$ 1.3
$ 1.8
$ 2.3
$ 2.7
$ 3.1
$ 3.4
$ 3.7
$ 3.9
$ 4.2
$ 4.4
$ 4.7
$ 4.9
$ 5.1
$ 5.4
$ 5.6
$ 5.7
$ 5.9
$ 69.8
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.1
$ 5.1
$ 8.8
$ 13.2
$ 18.1
$ 23.7
$ 27.5
$ 30.9
$ 34.1
$ 37.2
$ 40.1
$ 42.9
$ 45.7
$ 48.3
$ 50.8
$ 53.3
$ 55.7
$ 58.1
$ 59.5
$ 61.6
$ 716.7
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.0
$ 5.1
$ 8.8
$ 13.2
$ 18.1
$ 23.3
$ 26.8
$ 29.6
$ 31.8
$ 33.7
$ 35.3
$ 36.7
$ 38.0
$ 39.1
$ 40.1
$ 41.0
$ 41.8
$ 42.6
$ 42.8
$ 43.4
$ 593.3
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.4
$ 1.1
$ 1.9
$ 2.9
$ 4.0
$ 5.1
$ 5.9
$ 6.5
$ 6.9
$ 7.3
$ 7.7
$ 8.0
$ 8.2
$ 8.4
$ 8.6
$ 8.8
$ 9.0
$ 9.1
$ 9.2
$ 9.3
$ 128.4
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 4.5
$ 11.2
$ 19.4
$ 29.0
$ 39.8
$ 51.5
$ 59.1
$ 65.3
$ 70.3
$ 74.6
$ 78.3
$ 81.5
$ 84.4
$ 86.9
$ 89.1
$ 91.2
$ 93.2
$ 95.2
$ 95.4
$ 97.0
$ 1,316.9
 Notes:  All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
        Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
 Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38b, E.38f, and E.38J.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
         Exhibit F.3f  Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                            (Surface Water Systems Serving 10,000-49,999 People)

  TTHM - Preferred Alternative
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 7.0
$ 18.1
$ 32.8
$ 50.8
$ 72.3
$ 93.4
$ 111.3
$ 127.5
$ 142.3
$ 155.4
$ 166.8
$ 176.7
$ 185.5
$ 193.4
$ 200.7
$ 207.3
$ 213.5
$ 219.3
$ 221.6
$ 226.1
$2,821.9
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.5
$ 4.0
$ 7.2
$ 11.2
$ 15.8
$ 20.4
$ 24.3
$ 27.8
$ 31.0
$ 33.8
$ 36.2
$ 38.3
$ 40.1
$ 41.7
$ 43.3
$ 44.6
$ 45.9
$ 47.0
$ 47.6
$ 48.5
$ 610.2
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 15.4
$ 39.9
$ 72.2
$ 111.8
$ 159.1
$ 205.9
$ 245.3
$ 281.7
$ 314.4
$ 344.2
$ 369.7
$ 392.1
$ 412.5
$ 430.1
$ 446.4
$ 461.5
$ 475.4
$ 489.5
$ 494.2
$ 505.2
$ 6,266.3
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 6.6
$ 15.8
$ 26.9
$ 39.8
$ 54.3
$ 66.9
$ 76.2
$ 84.5
$ 92.3
$ 99.6
$ 106.5
$ 113.2
$ 119.6
$ 125.8
$ 131.8
$ 137.6
$ 143.3
$ 148.8
$ 152.0
$ 156.9
$ 1,898.2
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.5
$ 3.5
$ 5.9
$ 8.7
$ 11.9
$ 14.6
$ 16.7
$ 18.5
$ 20.1
$ 21.7
$ 23.1
$ 24.5
$ 25.9
$ 27.1
$ 28.4
$ 29.6
$ 30.8
$ 31.9
$ 32.6
$ 33.6
$ 410.6
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 14.6
$ 34.7
$ 59.1
$ 87.5
$ 119.6
$ 147.6
$ 168.0
$ 186.7
$ 203.9
$ 220.5
$ 236.1
$ 251.1
$ 265.8
$ 279.6
$ 293.1
$ 306.3
$ 319.0
$ 332.2
$ 339.1
$ 350.5
$ 4,214.9
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 13.1
$ 32.2
$ 55.5
$ 82.4
$ 112.2
$ 137.5
$ 154.8
$ 168.7
$ 180.2
$ 189.9
$ 198.4
$ 205.8
$ 212.4
$ 218.4
$ 223.9
$ 229.0
$ 233.7
$ 238.2
$ 239.1
$ 242.5
$ 3,367.9
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.9
$ 7.1
$ 12.2
$ 18.1
$ 24.6
$ 30.1
$ 33.8
$ 36.8
$ 39.2
$ 41.3
$ 43.1
$ 44.6
$ 46.0
$ 47.1
$ 48.3
$ 49.3
$ 50.2
$ 51.1
$ 51.3
$ 52.0
$ 728.9
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 28.9
$ 70.8
$ 122.3
$ 181.3
$ 246.9
$ 303.1
$ 341.3
$ 372.6
$ 398.1
$ 420.6
$ 439.6
$ 456.6
$ 472.2
$ 485.6
$ 498.0
$ 509.7
$ 520.4
$ 531.8
$ 533.3
$ 541.9
$ 7,474.9
  Notes:   All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
         Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
  Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38b,  E.38f, and E.38J.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
         Exhibit F.3g  Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                            (Surface Water Systems Serving 50,000-99,999 People)

  TTHM - Preferred Alternative
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 6.1
$ 15.8
$ 28.6
$ 44.3
$ 59.8
$ 73.1
$ 85.3
$ 96.4
$ 106.4
$ 114.9
$ 122.3
$ 128.8
$ 134.7
$ 140.0
$ 144.9
$ 149.4
$ 153.6
$ 157.6
$ 159.1
$ 162.2
$ 2,083.3
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
-
$
$ 1.3
$ 3.5
$ 6.3
$ 9.7
$ 13.1
$ 16.0
$ 18.6
$ 21.1
$ 23.2
$ 25.0
$ 26.5
$ 27.9
$ 29.1
$ 30.2
$ 31.2
$ 32.1
$ 33.0
$ 33.8
$ 34.1
$ 34.8
$ 450.7
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 13.4
$ 34.8
$ 62.9
$ 97.4
$ 131.7
$ 161.2
$ 188.1
$ 213.0
$ 235.0
$ 254.5
$ 271.1
$ 285.9
$ 299.4
$ 311.3
$ 322.3
$ 332.5
$ 342.0
$ 351.8
$ 354.8
$ 362.4
$ 4,625.4
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
-
$
$ 5.8
$ 13.7
$ 23.4
$ 34.6
$ 44.3
$ 51.2
$ 57.3
$ 62.9
$ 68.2
$ 73.2
$ 78.0
$ 82.6
$ 87.1
$ 91.4
$ 95.6
$ 99.7
$ 103.6
$ 107.5
$ 109.7
$ 113.1
$ 1,403.1
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
-
$
$ 1.3
$ 3.0
$ 5.1
$ 7.6
$ 9.7
$ 11.2
$ 12.5
$ 13.7
$ 14.9
$ 15.9
$ 16.9
$ 17.9
$ 18.8
$ 19.7
$ 20.6
$ 21.4
$ 22.3
$ 23.1
$ 23.6
$ 24.2
$ 303.5
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 12.7
$ 30.2
$ 51.5
$ 76.2
$ 97.5
$ 112.8
$ 126.3
$ 138.9
$ 150.7
$ 162.1
$ 172.9
$ 183.4
$ 193.6
$ 203.2
$ 212.6
$ 221.8
$ 230.7
$ 240.0
$ 244.8
$ 252.7
$ 3,114.9
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
-
$
$ 11.4
$ 28.0
$ 48.4
$ 71.8
$ 91.8
$ 105.2
$ 115.8
$ 124.5
$ 131.8
$ 138.1
$ 143.7
$ 148.6
$ 153.0
$ 157.0
$ 160.7
$ 164.2
$ 167.5
$ 170.6
$ 171.1
$ 173.5
$ 2,476.5
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
-
$
$ 2.5
$ 6.2
$ 10.6
$ 15.8
$ 20.1
$ 23.0
$ 25.3
$ 27.2
$ 28.7
$ 30.0
$ 31.2
$ 32.2
$ 33.1
$ 33.9
$ 34.6
$ 35.3
$ 36.0
$ 36.6
$ 36.7
$ 37.2
$ 536.2
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 25.2
$ 61.7
$ 106.5
$ 158.0
$ 202.0
$ 231.9
$ 255.2
$ 274.9
$ 291.2
$ 305.9
$ 318.4
$ 329.6
$ 340.1
$ 349.1
$ 357.5
$ 365.5
$ 372.9
$ 380.8
$ 381.6
$ 387.6
$ 5,495.5
  Notes:   All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
         Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
  Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38b,  E.38f, and E.38J.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
             Exhibit F.3h Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                               (Surface Water Systems Serving 100,000-999,999 People)
 TTHM - Preferred Alternative
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 27.0
$ 69.8
$ 126.4
$ 195.9
$ 250.5
$ 301 .3
$ 348.3
$ 391.1
$ 428.4
$ 460.1
$ 487.8
$ 512.4
$ 534.6
$ 554.8
$ 573.5
$ 590.8
$ 607.0
$ 622.3
$ 627.9
$ 639.9
$ 8,349.8
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 5.9
$ 15.4
$ 27.8
$ 43.0
$ 54.9
$ 65.9
$ 76.1
$ 85.4
$ 93.3
$ 100.0
$ 105.9
$ 111.1
$ 115.7
$ 119.7
$ 123.6
$ 127.1
$ 130.4
$ 133.5
$ 134.7
$ 137.2
$ 1,806.5
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 59.3
$ 153.7
$ 278.2
$ 431.1
$ 551 .4
$ 664.3
$ 767.8
$ 863.7
$ 946.6
$ 1,018.9
$ 1,081.1
$ 1,137.0
$ 1,188.6
$ 1 ,233.7
$ 1 ,275.7
$ 1,315.0
$ 1,351.6
$ 1,389.1
$ 1 ,400.3
$ 1 ,429.7
$ 18,536.8
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 25.6
$ 60.7
$ 103.6
$ 153.3
$ 182.6
$ 208.1
$ 231.3
$ 252.9
$ 273.3
$ 292.7
$ 311.2
$ 329.1
$ 346.4
$ 363.1
$ 379.4
$ 395.3
$ 410.7
$ 425.9
$ 434.5
$ 447.6
$ 5,627.4
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 5.6
$ 13.4
$ 22.7
$ 33.7
$ 40.0
$ 45.5
$ 50.6
$ 55.2
$ 59.5
$ 63.6
$ 67.6
$ 71.3
$ 74.9
$ 78.3
$ 81.8
$ 85.0
$ 88.2
$ 91.3
$ 93.2
$ 95.9
$ 1,217.6
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 56.4
$ 133.7
$ 227.9
$ 337.3
$ 402.1
$ 459.0
$ 510.0
$ 558.6
$ 603.8
$ 648.1
$ 689.7
$ 730.2
$ 770.1
$ 807.4
$ 844.0
$ 879.8
$ 914.5
$ 950.6
$ 969.0
$ 1,000.1
$ 12,492.3
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 50.6
$ 124.0
$ 214.1
$ 317.7
$ 379.5
$ 427.2
$ 465.7
$ 497.8
$ 525.1
$ 548.7
$ 569.4
$ 587.9
$ 604.7
$ 620.1
$ 634.3
$ 647.6
$ 660.2
$ 672.2
$ 674.1
$ 683.3
$ 9,904.2
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 11.1
$ 27.3
$ 47.0
$ 69.7
$ 83.2
$ 93.4
$ 101.8
$ 108.7
$ 114.3
$ 119.3
$ 123.6
$ 127.4
$ 130.8
$ 133.8
$ 136.7
$ 139.3
$ 141.8
$ 144.2
$ 144.7
$ 146.4
$ 2,144.7
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 111.3
$ 273.1
$ 471.3
$ 698.9
$ 835.4
$ 942.0
$ 1,026.7
$ 1,099.4
$ 1,160.0
$ 1,214.9
$ 1,261.9
$ 1,304.5
$ 1 ,344.4
$ 1,378.7
$ 1,411.0
$ 1,441.6
$ 1,470.1
$ 1 ,500.6
$ 1,503.4
$ 1 ,526.5
$ 21 ,975.8
 Notes:  All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
        Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
 Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38b, E.38f, and E.38J.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
             Exhibit F.3i  Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                                 (Surface Water Systems Serving >1,000,000 People)
 TTHM - Preferred Alternative
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 22.9
$ 59.4
$ 107.6
$ 166.7
$ 213.2
$ 256.4
$ 296.4
$ 332.8
$ 364.6
$ 391 .6
$ 415.2
$ 436.1
$ 455.0
$ 472.2
$ 488.1
$ 502.8
$ 516.6
$ 529.6
$ 534.4
$ 544.6
$ 7,106.2
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 5.1
$ 13.1
$ 23.6
$ 36.6
$ 46.7
$ 56.1
$ 64.8
$ 72.7
$ 79.4
$ 85.1
$ 90.1
$ 94.5
$ 98.4
$ 101.9
$ 105.2
$ 108.2
$ 111.0
$ 113.6
$ 114.7
$ 116.7
$ 1,537.4
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 50.4
$ 130.8
$ 236.7
$ 366.9
$ 469.3
$ 565.3
$ 653.4
$ 735.1
$ 805.6
$ 867.2
$ 920.1
$ 967.6
$ 1,011.5
$ 1 ,049.9
$ 1 ,085.7
$ 1,119.2
$ 1,150.3
$ 1,182.2
$ 1,191.7
$ 1,216.7
$ 15,775.9
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 21.8
$ 51.7
$ 88.1
$ 130.5
$ 155.4
$ 177.1
$ 196.9
$ 215.3
$ 232.6
$ 249.1
$ 264.9
$ 280.1
$ 294.8
$ 309.0
$ 322.9
$ 336.4
$ 349.6
$ 362.4
$ 369.8
$ 381.0
$ 4,789.3
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 4.8
$ 11.4
$ 19.4
$ 28.6
$ 34.1
$ 38.7
$ 43.0
$ 47.0
$ 50.6
$ 54.2
$ 57.5
$ 60.7
$ 63.8
$ 66.7
$ 69.6
$ 72.4
$ 75.1
$ 77.7
$ 79.3
$ 81.7
$ 1,036.3
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 48.0
$ 113.8
$ 194.0
$ 287.0
$ 342.2
$ 390.6
$ 434.0
$ 475.4
$ 513.9
$ 551 .6
$ 587.0
$ 621 .5
$ 655.4
$ 687.2
$ 718.3
$ 748.8
$ 778.3
$ 809.0
$ 824.6
$ 851.1
$ 10,631.7
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 43.1
$ 105.5
$ 182.2
$ 270.3
$ 323.0
$ 363.6
$ 396.4
$ 423.7
$ 446.9
$ 466.9
$ 484.6
$ 500.4
$ 514.6
$ 527.7
$ 539.8
$ 551 .2
$ 561 .9
$ 572.1
$ 573.7
$ 581 .5
$ 8,429.0
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 9.5
$ 23.2
$ 40.0
$ 59.4
$ 70.8
$ 79.5
$ 86.6
$ 92.5
$ 97.3
$ 101.5
$ 105.2
$ 108.5
$ 111.3
$ 113.9
$ 116.4
$ 118.6
$ 120.7
$ 122.7
$ 123.1
$ 124.6
$ 1,825.3
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 94.8
$ 232.4
$ 401.1
$ 594.8
$ 711.0
$ 801.7
$ 873.8
$ 935.7
$ 987.2
$ 1 ,034.0
$ 1 ,073.9
$ 1,110.2
$ 1,144.1
$ 1,173.4
$ 1 ,200.9
$ 1,226.9
$ 1,251.1
$ 1,277.1
$ 1,279.5
$ 1,299.2
$ 18,702.7
 Notes:  All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
        Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
 Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38b, E.38f, and E.38J.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
         Exhibit F.3j  Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                                         (All Surface Water Systems)

 TTHM - Preferred Alternative
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 64.6
$ 167.4
$ 303.1
$ 469.8
$ 612.9
$ 747.0
$ 868.9
$ 979.6
$ 1,077.3
$ 1,161.0
$ 1,234.0
$ 1,298.6
$ 1,356.6
$ 1,409.3
$ 1,457.8
$ 1,502.7
$ 1,544.8
$ 1,584.4
$ 1,599.1
$ 1,630.3
$ 21,069.2
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 14.2
$ 36.8
$ 66.6
$ 103.1
$ 134.3
$ 163.4
$ 189.9
$ 213.8
$ 234.6
$ 252.4
$ 267.8
$ 281.5
$ 293.5
$ 304.1
$ 314.3
$ 323.3
$ 331.9
$ 339.8
$ 343.2
$ 349.4
$ 4,557.9
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 142.1
$ 368.7
$ 667.1
$ 1,033.7
$ 1,349.2
$ 1,647.2
$ 1,915.4
$ 2,163.6
$ 2,379.9
$ 2,570.9
$ 2,734.8
$ 2,881.4
$ 3,016.0
$ 3,133.7
$ 3,243.0
$ 3,345.0
$ 3,439.7
$ 3,536.8
$ 3,566.4
$ 3,642.2
$ 46,776.7
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 61.3
$ 145.2
$ 247.7
$ 366.8
$ 448.5
$ 518.8
$ 579.6
$ 635.8
$ 688.6
$ 738.7
$ 786.7
$ 832.8
$ 877.4
$ 920.5
$ 962.5
$ 1,003.3
$ 1,043.1
$ 1,082.1
$ 1,104.4
$ 1,138.2
$ 14,182.1
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 13.5
$ 31.9
$ 54.4
$ 80.5
$ 98.3
$ 113.5
$ 126.7
$ 138.8
$ 149.9
$ 160.6
$ 170.8
$ 180.5
$ 189.8
$ 198.6
$ 207.5
$ 215.8
$ 224.1
$ 232.1
$ 237.0
$ 244.0
$ 3,068.3
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 134.7
$ 319.9
$ 545.3
$ 806.9
$ 987.4
$ 1,144.0
$ 1,277.8
$ 1,404.2
$ 1,521.3
$ 1,635.8
$ 1,743.5
$ 1,847.9
$ 1,950.6
$ 2,046.8
$ 2,141.1
$ 2,233.3
$ 2,322.6
$ 2,415.4
$ 2,463.0
$ 2,543.0
$ 31,484.4
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 121.2
$ 297.0
$ 513.0
$ 761.2
$ 932.4
$ 1,066.9
$ 1,171.3
$ 1,257.2
$ 1,329.7
$ 1,392.1
$ 1,446.8
$ 1,495.4
$ 1,539.3
$ 1,579.3
$ 1,616.3
$ 1,650.9
$ 1,683.5
$ 1,714.5
$ 1,719.5
$ 1,743.2
$ 25,030.6
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 26.7
$ 65.3
$ 112.7
$ 167.1
$ 204.3
$ 233.4
$ 256.0
$ 274.4
$ 289.6
$ 302.7
$ 314.0
$ 324.2
$ 333.0
$ 340.8
$ 348.4
$ 355.1
$ 361.7
$ 367.7
$ 369.0
$ 373.6
$ 5,419.7
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 266.6
$ 654.1
$ 1,129.2
$ 1,674.8
$ 2,052.4
$ 2,352.6
$ 2,582.0
$ 2,776.5
$ 2,937.6
$ 3,082.7
$ 3,206.3
$ 3,318.1
$ 3,422.2
$ 3,511.6
$ 3,595.6
$ 3,674.8
$ 3,748.5
$ 3,827.0
$ 3,834.9
$ 3,894.5
$ 55,542.2
 Notes:      All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
           Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
 Source:     Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38b, E.38f, and E.38J.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
       Exhibit F.3k Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                              (Ground Water Systems Serving <100 People)

     TTHM - Preferred Alternative

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 3.6
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.8
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 8.0
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 2.3
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.5
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 5.2
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 4.3
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.9
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 9.6
     Notes:  All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
            Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
     Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38c, E.38g, and E.38k.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
       Exhibit F.3I Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                            (Ground Water Systems Serving 100-499 People)

    TTHM - Preferred Alternative

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.6
$ 0.9
$ 1.0
$ 1.2
$ 1.3
$ 1.5
$ 1.6
$ 1.7
$ 1.7
$ 1.8
$ 1.9
$ 2.0
$ 2.0
$ 2.1
$ 2.1
$ 2.1
$ 26.5
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 5.7
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.4
$ 0.6
$ 1.0
$ 1.4
$ 1.9
$ 2.3
$ 2.6
$ 2.9
$ 3.2
$ 3.5
$ 3.7
$ 3.9
$ 4.1
$ 4.2
$ 4.4
$ 4.5
$ 4.6
$ 4.7
$ 4.8
$ 58.8
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.6
$ 0.7
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.9
$ 1.0
$ 1.0
$ 1.1
$ 1.2
$ 1.2
$ 1.3
$ 1.3
$ 1.4
$ 1.4
$ 1.5
$ 17.3
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 3.8
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.3
$ 0.5
$ 0.7
$ 1.0
$ 1.3
$ 1.5
$ 1.7
$ 1.8
$ 2.0
$ 2.2
$ 2.3
$ 2.5
$ 2.6
$ 2.7
$ 2.9
$ 3.0
$ 3.1
$ 3.2
$ 3.3
$ 38.5
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.3
$ 0.5
$ 0.7
$ 1.0
$ 1.3
$ 1.4
$ 1.6
$ 1.7
$ 1.8
$ 1.9
$ 2.0
$ 2.0
$ 2.1
$ 2.2
$ 2.2
$ 2.2
$ 2.3
$ 2.3
$ 2.3
$ 31.9
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 6.9
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.6
$ 1.0
$ 1.6
$ 2.1
$ 2.8
$ 3.2
$ 3.5
$ 3.8
$ 4.0
$ 4.2
$ 4.4
$ 4.5
$ 4.7
$ 4.8
$ 4.9
$ 5.0
$ 5.1
$ 5.1
$ 5.2
$ 70.8
    Notes:  All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
          Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
    Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38c, E.38g, and E.38k.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
      Exhibit F.3m  Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                            (Ground Water Systems Serving 500-999 People)

    TTHM - Preferred Alternative

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.5
$ 0.7
$ 0.9
$ 1.1
$ 1.3
$ 1.4
$ 1.5
$ 1.7
$ 1.8
$ 1.9
$ 1.9
$ 2.0
$ 2.1
$ 2.2
$ 2.2
$ 2.2
$ 2.3
$ 28.2
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 6.1
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.4
$ 0.7
$ 1.1
$ 1.5
$ 2.0
$ 2.4
$ 2.8
$ 3.1
$ 3.4
$ 3.7
$ 3.9
$ 4.1
$ 4.3
$ 4.5
$ 4.6
$ 4.8
$ 4.9
$ 5.0
$ 5.1
$ 62.5
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.5
$ 0.6
$ 0.7
$ 0.8
$ 0.9
$ 1.0
$ 1.0
$ 1.1
$ 1.2
$ 1.2
$ 1.3
$ 1.4
$ 1.4
$ 1.5
$ 1.5
$ 1.6
$ 18.5
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 4.0
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.3
$ 0.5
$ 0.8
$ 1.0
$ 1.4
$ 1.6
$ 1.8
$ 2.0
$ 2.1
$ 2.3
$ 2.5
$ 2.6
$ 2.8
$ 2.9
$ 3.0
$ 3.2
$ 3.3
$ 3.4
$ 3.5
$ 41.0
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.3
$ 0.5
$ 0.8
$ 1.0
$ 1.3
$ 1.5
$ 1.7
$ 1.8
$ 1.9
$ 2.0
$ 2.1
$ 2.2
$ 2.2
$ 2.3
$ 2.3
$ 2.4
$ 2.4
$ 2.4
$ 2.5
$ 33.9
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 7.3
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.3
$ 0.6
$ 1.1
$ 1.7
$ 2.3
$ 2.9
$ 3.4
$ 3.7
$ 4.0
$ 4.3
$ 4.5
$ 4.7
$ 4.8
$ 5.0
$ 5.1
$ 5.2
$ 5.3
$ 5.4
$ 5.5
$ 5.5
$ 75.3
    Notes:  All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
          Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
    Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38c, E.38g, and E.38k.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
       Exhibit F.3n Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                          (Ground Water Systems Serving 1,000-3,299 People)

   TTHM - Preferred Alternative

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.5
$ 0.9
$ 1.4
$ 2.1
$ 2.7
$ 3.3
$ 3.8
$ 4.3
$ 4.7
$ 5.0
$ 5.3
$ 5.6
$ 5.9
$ 6.1
$ 6.3
$ 6.5
$ 6.7
$ 6.7
$ 6.9
$ 85.0
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.6
$ 0.7
$ 0.8
$ 0.9
$ 1.0
$ 1.1
$ 1.2
$ 1.2
$ 1.3
$ 1.3
$ 1.4
$ 1.4
$ 1.4
$ 1.4
$ 1.5
$ 18.4
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.4
$ 1.1
$ 2.1
$ 3.2
$ 4.5
$ 6.1
$ 7.3
$ 8.4
$ 9.4
$ 10.3
$ 11.1
$ 11.8
$ 12.5
$ 13.0
$ 13.6
$ 14.0
$ 14.5
$ 14.9
$ 15.1
$ 15.4
$ 188.7
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.4
$ 0.7
$ 1.0
$ 1.4
$ 1.9
$ 2.2
$ 2.4
$ 2.7
$ 2.9
$ 3.1
$ 3.3
$ 3.5
$ 3.7
$ 3.9
$ 4.1
$ 4.3
$ 4.5
$ 4.6
$ 4.8
$ 55.7
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.9
$ 0.9
$ 1.0
$ 1.0
$ 1.0
$ 12.0
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.4
$ 0.9
$ 1.5
$ 2.3
$ 3.1
$ 4.1
$ 4.7
$ 5.3
$ 5.9
$ 6.4
$ 6.9
$ 7.4
$ 7.9
$ 8.3
$ 8.8
$ 9.2
$ 9.6
$ 10.0
$ 10.3
$ 10.6
$ 123.7
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.4
$ 0.9
$ 1.5
$ 2.3
$ 3.1
$ 4.0
$ 4.6
$ 5.1
$ 5.5
$ 5.8
$ 6.1
$ 6.3
$ 6.6
$ 6.7
$ 6.9
$ 7.1
$ 7.2
$ 7.4
$ 7.4
$ 7.5
$ 102.4
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.5
$ 0.7
$ 0.9
$ 1.0
$ 1.1
$ 1.2
$ 1.3
$ 1.3
$ 1.4
$ 1.4
$ 1.5
$ 1.5
$ 1.5
$ 1.6
$ 1.6
$ 1.6
$ 1.6
$ 22.2
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.8
$ 1.9
$ 3.4
$ 5.0
$ 6.9
$ 8.9
$ 10.2
$ 11.3
$ 12.1
$ 12.9
$ 13.5
$ 14.1
$ 14.6
$ 15.0
$ 15.4
$ 15.7
$ 16.1
$ 16.4
$ 16.5
$ 16.7
$ 227.3
   Notes:   All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
          Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
   Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38c, E.38g, and E.38k.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
       Exhibit F.3o Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                          (Ground Water Systems Serving 3,300-9,999 People)

   TTHM - Preferred Alternative

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.3
$ 0.8
$ 1.5
$ 2.3
$ 3.2
$ 4.3
$ 5.2
$ 6.0
$ 6.7
$ 7.4
$ 8.0
$ 8.4
$ 8.9
$ 9.3
$ 9.6
$ 10.0
$ 10.3
$ 10.6
$ 10.7
$ 10.9
$ 134.4
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.5
$ 0.7
$ 1.0
$ 1.1
$ 1.3
$ 1.5
$ 1.6
$ 1.7
$ 1.8
$ 1.9
$ 2.0
$ 2.1
$ 2.1
$ 2.2
$ 2.3
$ 2.3
$ 2.3
$ 29.1
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.7
$ 1.8
$ 3.2
$ 5.0
$ 7.1
$ 9.6
$ 11.5
$ 13.3
$ 14.9
$ 16.4
$ 17.6
$ 18.7
$ 19.8
$ 20.6
$ 21.4
$ 22.2
$ 22.9
$ 23.6
$ 23.8
$ 24.4
$ 298.6
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.3
$ 0.6
$ 1.1
$ 1.6
$ 2.2
$ 2.9
$ 3.4
$ 3.8
$ 4.2
$ 4.6
$ 4.9
$ 5.3
$ 5.6
$ 5.9
$ 6.2
$ 6.5
$ 6.8
$ 7.1
$ 7.3
$ 7.5
$ 88.1
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.6
$ 0.7
$ 0.8
$ 0.9
$ 1.0
$ 1.1
$ 1.1
$ 1.2
$ 1.3
$ 1.3
$ 1.4
$ 1.5
$ 1.5
$ 1.6
$ 1.6
$ 19.1
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.6
$ 1.4
$ 2.4
$ 3.6
$ 4.9
$ 6.5
$ 7.5
$ 8.4
$ 9.3
$ 10.2
$ 11.0
$ 11.7
$ 12.5
$ 13.2
$ 13.9
$ 14.5
$ 15.2
$ 15.9
$ 16.2
$ 16.8
$ 195.7
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.6
$ 1.4
$ 2.4
$ 3.6
$ 4.9
$ 6.4
$ 7.3
$ 8.1
$ 8.7
$ 9.2
$ 9.6
$ 10.0
$ 10.4
$ 10.7
$ 10.9
$ 11.2
$ 11.4
$ 11.6
$ 11.7
$ 11.8
$ 162.0
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.3
$ 0.5
$ 0.8
$ 1.1
$ 1.4
$ 1.6
$ 1.8
$ 1.9
$ 2.0
$ 2.1
$ 2.2
$ 2.2
$ 2.3
$ 2.4
$ 2.4
$ 2.5
$ 2.5
$ 2.5
$ 2.5
$ 35.1
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.2
$ 3.0
$ 5.3
$ 7.9
$ 10.9
$ 14.1
$ 16.1
$ 17.8
$ 19.2
$ 20.4
$ 21.4
$ 22.2
$ 23.0
$ 23.7
$ 24.3
$ 24.9
$ 25.4
$ 26.0
$ 26.1
$ 26.5
$ 359.5
   Notes:   All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
          Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
   Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38c, E.38g, and E.38k.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
       Exhibit F.3p Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                         (Ground Water Systems Serving 10,000-49,999 People)

   TTHM - Preferred Alternative

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.5
$ 1.2
$ 2.2
$ 3.5
$ 4.9
$ 6.3
$ 7.5
$ 8.6
$ 9.6
$ 10.5
$ 11.2
$ 11.9
$ 12.5
$ 13.0
$ 13.5
$ 13.9
$ 14.4
$ 14.8
$ 14.9
$ 15.2
$ 190.2
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.3
$ 0.5
$ 0.8
$ 1.1
$ 1.4
$ 1.6
$ 1.9
$ 2.1
$ 2.3
$ 2.4
$ 2.6
$ 2.7
$ 2.8
$ 2.9
$ 3.0
$ 3.1
$ 3.2
$ 3.2
$ 3.3
$ 41.1
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.0
$ 2.7
$ 4.9
$ 7.6
$ 10.8
$ 14.0
$ 16.6
$ 19.1
$ 21.2
$ 23.2
$ 24.9
$ 26.4
$ 27.7
$ 28.9
$ 30.0
$ 31.0
$ 32.0
$ 32.9
$ 33.3
$ 34.0
$ 422.4
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.4
$ 1.0
$ 1.7
$ 2.5
$ 3.4
$ 4.2
$ 4.9
$ 5.4
$ 6.0
$ 6.5
$ 7.0
$ 7.4
$ 7.9
$ 8.3
$ 8.8
$ 9.2
$ 9.6
$ 10.0
$ 10.2
$ 10.5
$ 124.8
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.7
$ 0.9
$ 1.1
$ 1.2
$ 1.3
$ 1.4
$ 1.5
$ 1.6
$ 1.7
$ 1.8
$ 1.9
$ 2.0
$0 4
Z. I
$ 2.1
$ 2.2
$ 2.3
$ 27.0
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.9
$ 2.1
$ 3.7
$ 5.5
$ 7.5
$ 9.3
$ 10.7
$ 12.0
$ 13.2
$ 14.4
$ 15.5
$ 16.5
$ 17.6
$ 18.5
$ 19.5
$ 20.4
$ 21.3
$ 22.2
$ 22.7
$ 23.5
$ 277.1
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.8
$ 2.1
$ 3.7
$ 5.5
$ 7.5
$ 9.2
$ 10.5
$ 11.4
$ 12.3
$ 12.9
$ 13.5
$ 14.0
$ 14.5
$ 14.9
$ 15.3
$ 15.6
$ 15.9
$ 16.2
$ 16.3
$ 16.5
$ 228.8
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.5
$ 0.8
$ 1.2
$ 1.6
$ 2.0
$ 2.3
$ 2.5
$ 2.7
$ 2.8
$ 2.9
$ 3.0
$ 3.1
$ 3.2
$ 3.3
$ 3.4
$ 3.4
$ 3.5
$ 3.5
$ 3.5
$ 49.5
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.9
$ 4.6
$ 8.1
$ 12.0
$ 16.5
$ 20.4
$ 23.1
$ 25.3
$ 27.1
$ 28.7
$ 30.0
$ 31.2
$ 32.2
$ 33.1
$ 34.0
$ 34.8
$ 35.5
$ 36.2
$ 36.3
$ 36.9
$ 507.8
   Notes:   All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
          Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
   Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38c, E.38g, and E.38k.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
       Exhibit F.3q Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                         (Ground Water Systems Serving 50,000-99,999 People)

    TTHM - Preferred Alternative

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.5
$ 0.9
$ 1.5
$ 2.0
$ 2.4
$ 2.8
$ 3.1
$ 3.4
$ 3.7
$ 4.0
$ 4.2
$ 4.4
$ 4.5
$ 4.7
$ 4.8
$ 5.0
$ 5.1
$ 5.1
$ 5.2
$ 67.5
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.6
$ 0.7
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.9
$ 0.9
$ 0.9
$ 1.0
$ 1.0
$ 1.0
$ 1.1
$ 1.1
$ 1.1
$ 1.1
$ 14.6
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.4
$ 1.1
$ 2.1
$ 3.2
$ 4.3
$ 5.3
$ 6.1
$ 6.9
$ 7.6
$ 8.2
$ 8.8
$ 9.2
$ 9.7
$ 10.1
$ 10.4
$ 10.7
$ 11.1
$ 11.4
$ 11.5
$ 11.7
$ 149.8
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.4
$ 0.7
$ 1.0
$ 1.3
$ 1.6
$ 1.8
$ 2.0
$ 2.1
$ 2.3
$ 2.5
$ 2.6
$ 2.8
$ 2.9
$ 3.1
$ 3.2
$ 3.3
$ 3.5
$ 3.5
$ 3.7
$ 44.4
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 9.6
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.4
$ 0.9
$ 1.5
$ 2.3
$ 2.9
$ 3.4
$ 3.9
$ 4.3
$ 4.7
$ 5.1
$ 5.5
$ 5.8
$ 6.2
$ 6.5
$ 6.8
$ 7.1
$ 7.4
$ 7.7
$ 7.9
$ 8.2
$ 98.5
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.4
$ 0.9
$ 1.5
$ 2.3
$ 3.0
$ 3.4
$ 3.8
$ 4.1
$ 4.3
$ 4.5
$ 4.7
$ 4.9
$ 5.0
$ 5.1
$ 5.3
$ 5.4
$ 5.5
$ 5.6
$ 5.6
$ 5.7
$ 80.8
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.5
$ 0.6
$ 0.7
$ 0.8
$ 0.9
$ 0.9
$ 1.0
$ 1.0
$ 1.1
$ 1.1
$ 1.1
$ 1.1
$ 1.2
$ 1.2
$ 1.2
$ 1.2
$ 1.2
$ 17.5
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.8
$ 1.9
$ 3.4
$ 5.0
$ 6.5
$ 7.5
$ 8.3
$ 9.0
$ 9.5
$ 10.0
$ 10.4
$ 10.8
$ 11.2
$ 11.4
$ 11.7
$ 12.0
$ 12.2
$ 12.5
$ 12.5
$ 12.7
$ 179.4
    Notes:  All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
          Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
    Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38c, E.38g, and E.38k.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
       Exhibit F.3r Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                        (Ground Water Systems Serving 100,000-999,999 People)

   TTHM - Preferred Alternative

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.6
$ 1.4
$ 2.6
$ 4.0
$ 5.1
$ 6.2
$ 7.1
$ 7.9
$ 8.7
$ 9.3
$ 9.9
$ 10.4
$ 10.8
$ 11.2
$ 11.6
$ 12.0
$ 12.3
$ 12.6
$ 12.7
$ 13.0
$ 169.5
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.3
$ 0.6
$ 0.9
$ 1.1
$ 1.3
$ 1.6
$ 1.7
$ 1.9
$ 2.0
$ 2.1
$ 2.2
$ 2.3
$ 2.4
$ 2.5
$ 2.6
$ 2.6
$ 2.7
$ 2.7
$ 2.8
$ 36.7
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.2
$ 3.2
$ 5.7
$ 8.9
$ 11.3
$ 13.6
$ 15.7
$ 17.6
$ 19.2
$ 20.6
$ 21.9
$ 23.0
$ 24.1
$ 25.0
$ 25.8
$ 26.6
$ 27.4
$ 28.1
$ 28.4
$ 29.0
$ 376.2
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.5
$ 1.1
$ 1.9
$ 2.9
$ 3.5
$ 4.0
$ 4.5
$ 4.9
$ 5.4
$ 5.8
$ 6.2
$ 6.5
$ 6.9
$ 7.3
$ 7.6
$ 7.9
$ 8.3
$ 8.6
$ 8.8
$ 9.1
$ 111.5
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.4
$ 0.6
$ 0.8
$ 0.9
$ 1.0
$ 1.1
$ 1.2
$ 1.3
$ 1.3
$ 1.4
$ 1.5
$ 1.6
$ 1.6
$ 1.7
$ 1.8
$ 1.8
$ 1.9
$ 1.9
$ 24.1
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.0
$ 2.5
$ 4.2
$ 6.3
$ 7.6
$ 8.8
$ 9.9
$ 10.9
$ 11.8
$ 12.8
$ 13.6
$ 14.5
$ 15.4
$ 16.1
$ 16.9
$ 17.7
$ 18.4
$ 19.2
$ 19.6
$ 20.3
$ 247.6
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.0
$ 2.4
$ 4.3
$ 6.4
$ 7.7
$ 8.7
$ 9.5
$ 10.2
$ 10.8
$ 11.3
$ 11.7
$ 12.1
$ 12.4
$ 12.7
$ 13.0
$ 13.3
$ 13.6
$ 13.8
$ 13.8
$ 14.0
$ 202.6
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.5
$ 0.9
$ 1.4
$ 1.7
$ 1.9
$ 2.1
$ 2.2
$ 2.3
$ 2.5
$ 2.5
$ 2.6
$ 2.7
$ 2.7
$ 2.8
$ 2.9
$ 2.9
$ 3.0
$ 3.0
$ 3.0
$ 43.9
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.2
$ 5.4
$ 9.4
$ 14.0
$ 16.9
$ 19.2
$ 21.0
$ 22.5
$ 23.8
$ 25.0
$ 25.9
$ 26.8
$ 27.6
$ 28.3
$ 29.0
$ 29.6
$ 30.2
$ 30.8
$ 30.8
$ 31.3
$ 449.5
   Notes:   All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
          Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
   Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38c, E.38g, and E.38k.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
       Exhibit F.3s Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                           (Ground Water Systems Serving >1,000,000 People)

    TTHM - Preferred Alternative

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.4
$ 0.7
$ 0.9
$ 1.0
$ 1.2
$ 1.3
$ 1.4
$ 1.6
$ 1.6
$ 1.7
$ 1.8
$ 1.9
$ 1.9
$ 2.0
$ 2.0
$ 2.1
$ 2.1
$ 2.2
$ 28.2
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 6.1
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.5
$ 1.0
$ 1.5
$ 1.9
$ 2.3
$ 2.6
$ 2.9
$ 3.2
$ 3.4
$ 3.6
$ 3.8
$ 4.0
$ 4.2
$ 4.3
$ 4.4
$ 4.6
$ 4.7
$ 4.7
$ 4.8
$ 62.6
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.5
$ 0.6
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.8
$ 0.9
$ 1.0
$ 1.0
$ 1.1
$ 1.1
$ 1.2
$ 1.3
$ 1.3
$ 1.4
$ 1.4
$ 1.5
$ 1.5
$ 18.6
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 4.0
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.4
$ 0.7
$ 1.1
$ 1.3
$ 1.5
$ 1.6
$ 1.8
$ 2.0
$ 2.1
$ 2.3
$ 2.4
$ 2.6
$ 2.7
$ 2.8
$ 2.9
$ 3.1
$ 3.2
$ 3.3
$ 3.4
$ 41.2
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.4
$ 0.7
$ 1.1
$ 1.3
$ 1.4
$ 1.6
$ 1.7
$ 1.8
$ 1.9
$ 1.9
$ 2.0
$ 2.1
$ 2.1
$ 2.2
$ 2.2
$ 2.3
$ 2.3
$ 2.3
$ 2.3
$ 33.7
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 7.3
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.4
$ 0.9
$ 1.6
$ 2.3
$ 2.8
$ 3.2
$ 3.5
$ 3.8
$ 4.0
$ 4.2
$ 4.3
$ 4.5
$ 4.6
$ 4.7
$ 4.8
$ 4.9
$ 5.0
$ 5.1
$ 5.1
$ 5.2
$ 74.9
    Notes:  All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
          Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
    Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38c, E.38g, and E.38k.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
       Exhibit F.3t Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                                       (All Ground Water Systems)

 TTHM - Preferred Alternative

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.0
$ 5.1
$ 9.3
$ 14.3
$ 19.6
$ 24.9
$ 29.4
$ 33.5
$ 37.1
$ 40.3
$ 43.1
$ 45.6
$ 47.8
$ 49.8
$ 51.6
$ 53.3
$ 54.9
$ 56.4
$ 56.9
$ 58.1
$ 733.0
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.4
$ 1.1
$ 2.0
$ 3.1
$ 4.3
$ 5.4
$ 6.4
$ 7.3
$ 8.1
$ 8.8
$ 9.4
$ 9.9
$ 10.3
$ 10.7
$ 11.1
$ 11.5
$ 11.8
$ 12.1
$ 12.2
$ 12.5
$ 158.5
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 4.3
$ 11.2
$ 20.4
$ 31.6
$ 43.1
$ 54.9
$ 64.9
$ 73.9
$ 82.0
$ 89.3
$ 95.6
$ 101.2
$ 106.3
$ 110.7
$ 114.8
$ 118.7
$ 122.2
$ 125.8
$ 127.0
$ 129.8
$ 1,627.6
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.7
$ 4.0
$ 6.9
$ 10.2
$ 13.4
$ 16.5
$ 18.9
$ 21.0
$ 23.1
$ 25.0
$ 26.8
$ 28.6
$ 30.3
$ 32.0
$ 33.6
$ 35.1
$ 36.6
$ 38.1
$ 39.0
$ 40.3
$ 481.2
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.4
$ 0.9
$ 1.5
$ 2.3
$ 2.9
$ 3.6
$ 4.1
$ 4.6
$ 5.0
$ 5.4
$ 5.8
$ 6.2
$ 6.6
$ 6.9
$ 7.2
$ 7.6
$ 7.9
$ 8.2
$ 8.4
$ 8.6
$ 104.1
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 3.7
$ 8.8
$ 15.1
$ 22.5
$ 29.6
$ 36.4
$ 41.6
$ 46.5
$ 51.0
$ 55.3
$ 59.5
$ 63.5
$ 67.4
$ 71.1
$ 74.7
$ 78.2
$ 81.6
$ 85.1
$ 87.0
$ 90.1
$ 1,068.5
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 3.5
$ 8.7
$ 15.1
$ 22.6
$ 29.6
$ 35.9
$ 40.5
$ 44.1
$ 47.1
$ 49.6
$ 51.8
$ 53.7
$ 55.4
$ 56.9
$ 58.3
$ 59.6
$ 60.8
$ 62.0
$ 62.1
$ 63.0
$ 880.4
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.8
$ 1.9
$ 3.3
$ 5.0
$ 6.5
$ 7.9
$ 8.8
$ 9.6
$ 10.3
$ 10.8
$ 11.2
$ 11.6
$ 12.0
$ 12.3
$ 12.6
$ 12.8
$ 13.1
$ 13.3
$ 13.3
$ 13.5
$ 190.6
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 7.7
$ 19.1
$ 33.3
$ 49.8
$ 65.1
$ 79.2
$ 89.2
$ 97.4
$ 104.0
$ 109.9
$ 114.8
$ 119.2
$ 123.2
$ 126.6
$ 129.8
$ 132.7
$ 135.4
$ 138.3
$ 138.6
$ 140.7
$ 1,954.0
 Notes:  All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
        Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
 Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.38c, E.38g, and E.38k.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
               Exhibit F.3u  Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                                                   (All Water Systems)
 TTHM - Preferred Alternative

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 66.6
$ 172.5
$ 312.3
$ 484.2
$ 632.5
$ 771.9
$ 898.3
$ 1,013.1
$ 1,114.4
$ 1,201.3
$ 1,277.2
$ 1,344.2
$ 1,404.4
$ 1,459.1
$ 1,509.4
$ 1,556.0
$ 1,599.7
$ 1,640.8
$ 1,656.1
$ 1,688.4
$ 21,802.2
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 14.7
$ 37.9
$ 68.6
$ 106.3
$ 138.6
$ 168.9
$ 196.3
$ 221.2
$ 242.7
$ 261.2
$ 277.2
$ 291.4
$ 303.8
$ 314.8
$ 325.4
$ 334.7
$ 343.7
$ 351.9
$ 355.4
$ 361.9
$ 4,716.5
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 146.4
$ 379.9
$ 687.4
$ 1,065.2
$ 1,392.3
$ 1,702.1
$ 1,980.3
$ 2,237.5
$ 2,461.9
$ 2,660.2
$ 2,830.4
$ 2,982.5
$ 3,122.3
$ 3,244.4
$ 3,357.8
$ 3,463.7
$ 3,561.9
$ 3,662.6
$ 3,693.4
$ 3,772.1
$ 48,404.3
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 62.9
$ 149.2
$ 254.6
$ 377.0
$ 462.0
$ 535.3
$ 598.5
$ 656.8
$ 711.7
$ 763.7
$ 813.5
$ 861.4
$ 907.7
$ 952.5
$ 996.0
$ 1,038.4
$ 1,079.8
$ 1,120.2
$ 1,143.4
$ 1,178.6
$ 14,663.3
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 13.9
$ 32.8
$ 55.9
$ 82.8
$ 101.2
$ 117.1
$ 130.8
$ 143.4
$ 155.0
$ 166.0
$ 176.6
$ 186.7
$ 196.4
$ 205.5
$ 214.7
$ 223.4
$ 232.0
$ 240.3
$ 245.4
$ 252.6
$ 3,172.4
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 138.4
$ 328.7
$ 560.4
$ 829.5
$ 1,017.0
$ 1,180.4
$ 1,319.4
$ 1,450.7
$ 1,572.2
$ 1,691.2
$ 1,802.9
$ 1,911.4
$ 2,018.0
$ 2,117.9
$ 2,215.7
$ 2,311.5
$ 2,404.2
$ 2,500.5
$ 2,550.0
$ 2,633.1
$ 32,552.9
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 124.7
$ 305.7
$ 528.1
$ 783.8
$ 961.9
$ 1,102.9
$ 1,211.7
$ 1,301.2
$ 1,376.8
$ 1,441.7
$ 1,498.6
$ 1,549.2
$ 1,594.7
$ 1,636.3
$ 1,674.7
$ 1,710.5
$ 1,744.3
$ 1,776.4
$ 1,781.7
$ 1,806.2
$ 25,911.1
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 27.5
$ 67.2
$ 116.0
$ 172.1
$ 210.8
$ 241.2
$ 264.8
$ 284.0
$ 299.8
$ 313.4
$ 325.3
$ 335.8
$ 345.0
$ 353.0
$ 361.0
$ 368.0
$ 374.7
$ 381.0
$ 382.3
$ 387.1
$ 5,610.2
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 274.3
$ 673.3
$ 1,162.5
$ 1,724.5
$ 2,117.5
$ 2,431.9
$ 2,671.2
$ 2,873.8
$ 3,041.6
$ 3,192.6
$ 3,321.2
$ 3,437.3
$ 3,545.4
$ 3,638.2
$ 3,725.4
$ 3,807.5
$ 3,883.9
$ 3,965.3
$ 3,973.5
$ 4,035.3
$ 57,496.3
 Notes:  All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
        Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
 Source: Derived from Exhibits F.3J and F.3t.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
     Exhibit F.3v Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 3%
                                                        Discount Rate
                                                     (All Water Systems)

 TTHM - Preferred Alternative
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Ann.
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 57.4
$ 144.4
$ 253.9
$ 382.2
$ 484.7
$ 574.4
$ 648.9
$ 710.6
$ 758.8
$ 794.2
$ 819.8
$ 837.7
$ 849.7
$ 857.1
$ 860.8
$ 861.5
$ 859.9
$ 856.3
$ 839.1
$ 830.6
$ 13,282.1
$ 762.8
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 12.6
$ 31.8
$ 55.8
$ 83.9
$ 106.2
$ 125.6
$ 141.8
$ 155.1
$ 165.2
$ 172.7
$ 177.9
$ 181.6
$ 183.8
$ 184.9
$ 185.6
$ 185.3
$ 184.7
$ 183.7
$ 180.1
$ 178.0
$ 2,876.5
$ 165.2
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 126.3
$ 318.2
$ 558.9
$ 840.9
$ 1,067.1
$ 1,266.5
$ 1,430.6
$ 1,569.4
$ 1,676.4
$ 1,758.7
$ 1,816.7
$ 1,858.6
$ 1,889.0
$ 1,905.7
$ 1,914.9
$ 1,917.8
$ 1,914.7
$ 1,911.5
$ 1,871.4
$ 1,855.6
$ 29,468.9
$ 1,692.3
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 54.3
$ 125.0
$ 207.0
$ 297.6
$ 354.1
$ 398.3
$ 432.4
$ 460.7
$ 484.6
$ 504.9
$ 522.2
$ 536.8
$ 549.2
$ 559.5
$ 568.0
$ 574.9
$ 580.4
$ 584.6
$ 579.3
$ 579.8
$ 8,953.6
$ 514.2
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 12.0
$ 27.5
$ 45.5
$ 65.3
$ 77.6
$ 87.1
$ 94.5
$ 100.6
$ 105.5
$ 109.8
$ 113.3
$ 116.4
$ 118.8
$ 120.7
$ 122.5
$ 123.7
$ 124.7
$ 125.4
$ 124.3
$ 124.3
$ 1,939.4
$ 111.4
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 119.4
$ 275.2
$ 455.6
$ 654.8
$ 779.4
$ 878.3
$ 953.2
$ 1,017.5
$ 1,070.6
$ 1,118.1
$ 1,157.2
$ 1,191.1
$ 1,220.9
$ 1,244.0
$ 1,263.6
$ 1,279.8
$ 1,292.4
$ 1,305.0
$ 1,292.1
$ 1,295.3
$ 19,863.6
$ 1,140.7
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 107.6
$ 256.0
$ 429.4
$ 618.7
$ 737.2
$ 820.6
$ 875.4
$ 912.7
$ 937.5
$ 953.2
$ 961.9
$ 965.4
$ 964.8
$ 961.1
$ 955.0
$ 947.1
$ 937.6
$ 927.1
$ 902.8
$ 888.5
$ 16,059.7
$ 922.3
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 23.7
$ 56.3
$ 94.3
$ 135.8
$ 161.6
$ 179.5
$ 191.3
$ 199.2
$ 204.2
$ 207.2
$ 208.8
$ 209.3
$ 208.7
$ 207.4
$ 205.9
$ 203.7
$ 201.4
$ 198.8
$ 193.7
$ 190.4
$ 3,481.3
$ 199.9
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 236.6
$ 563.8
$ 945.2
$ 1,361.4
$ 1,622.9
$ 1,809.5
$ 1,929.7
$ 2,015.7
$ 2,071.2
$ 2,110.7
$ 2,131.7
$ 2,142.0
$ 2,145.0
$ 2,137.1
$ 2,124.6
$ 2,108.1
$ 2,087.8
$ 2,069.5
$ 2,013.3
$ 1,985.1
$ 35,610.9
$ 2,045.1
 Notes:    Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005.
          Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate.
          Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
 Source:   Derived from Exhibit F.3u.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
    Exhibit F.3w  Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 7%
                                                       Discount Rate
                                                    (All Water Systems)

 TTHM - Preferred Alternative

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Ann.
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 47.5
$ 114.9
$ 194.5
$ 281.8
$ 344.0
$ 392.4
$ 426.8
$ 449.8
$ 462.4
$ 465.9
$ 462.9
$ 455.3
$ 444.6
$ 431.7
$ 417.4
$ 402.1
$ 386.3
$ 370.3
$ 349.3
$ 332.9
$ 7,232.9
$ 620.7
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 10.5
$ 25.3
$ 42.7
$ 61.9
$ 75.4
$ 85.8
$ 93.3
$ 98.2
$ 100.7
$ 101.3
$ 100.5
$ 98.7
$ 96.2
$ 93.1
$ 90.0
$ 86.5
$ 83.0
$ 79.4
$ 75.0
$ 71.3
$ 1,568.7
$ 134.6
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 104.4
$ 253.1
$ 428.1
$ 620.0
$ 757.3
$ 865.3
$ 940.8
$ 993.5
$ 1,021.6
$ 1,031.7
$ 1,025.9
$ 1,010.3
$ 988.4
$ 959.9
$ 928.5
$ 895.1
$ 860.2
$ 826.7
$ 779.1
$ 743.6
$ 16,033.5
$ 1,375.8
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 44.9
$ 99.4
$ 158.5
$ 219.4
$ 251.3
$ 272.1
$ 284.3
$ 291.6
$ 295.3
$ 296.2
$ 294.9
$ 291.8
$ 287.4
$ 281.8
$ 275.4
$ 268.3
$ 260.8
$ 252.8
$ 241.2
$ 232.4
$ 4,899.9
$ 420.5
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 9.9
$ 21.9
$ 34.8
$ 48.2
$ 55.1
$ 59.5
$ 62.1
$ 63.7
$ 64.3
$ 64.4
$ 64.0
$ 63.3
$ 62.2
$ 60.8
$ 59.4
$ 57.7
$ 56.0
$ 54.2
$ 51.8
$ 49.8
$ 1,063.0
$ 91.2
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 98.7
$ 219.0
$ 349.0
$ 482.8
$ 553.2
$ 600.1
$ 626.8
$ 644.1
$ 652.4
$ 655.9
$ 653.5
$ 647.4
$ 638.8
$ 626.6
$ 612.7
$ 597.3
$ 580.7
$ 564.4
$ 537.9
$ 519.1
$ 10,860.3
$ 931.9
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 88.9
$ 203.7
$ 328.9
$ 456.2
$ 523.2
$ 560.6
$ 575.7
$ 577.8
$ 571.3
$ 559.1
$ 543.2
$ 524.8
$ 504.8
$ 484.1
$ 463.1
$ 442.0
$ 421.3
$ 401.0
$ 375.8
$ 356.1
$ 8,961.5
$ 769.0
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 19.6
$ 44.8
$ 72.2
$ 100.2
$ 114.7
$ 122.6
$ 125.8
$ 126.1
$ 124.4
$ 121.6
$ 117.9
$ 113.8
$ 109.2
$ 104.5
$ 99.8
$ 95.1
$ 90.5
$ 86.0
$ 80.7
$ 76.3
$ 1,945.7
$ 167.0
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 195.5
$ 448.6
$ 723.9
$ 1,003.7
$ 1,151.8
$ 1,236.2
$ 1,269.1
$ 1,276.0
$ 1,262.2
$ 1,238.1
$ 1,203.7
$ 1,164.3
$ 1,122.4
$ 1,076.4
$ 1,030.1
$ 983.9
$ 938.0
$ 895.0
$ 838.2
$ 795.5
$ 19,852.9
$ 1,703.6
 Notes:    Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005.
          Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate.
          Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
 Source:    Derived from Exhibit F.3u.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
                              Exhibit F.3x Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 3% Discount Rate, by Small & Large Size Categories
                                                                                                  (Surface Water Systems)
  TTHM - Preferred Alternative
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Ann.
Small Systems
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.4
$ 3.6
$ 6.3
$ 9.5
$ 13.1
$ 17.0
$ 19.9
$ 22.3
$ 24.2
$ 25.7
$ 26.9
$ 27.7
$ 28.3
$ 28.7
$ 28.9
$ 29.1
$ 29.1
$ 29.0
$ 28.5
$ 28.2
$ 427.5
$ 24.5
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.3
$ 0.8
$ 1.4
$ 2.1
$ 2.9
$ 3.7
$ 4.4
$ 4.9
$ 5.3
$ 5.6
$ 5.8
$ 6.0
$ 6.1
$ 6.2
$ 6.2
$ 6.3
$ 6.2
$ 6.2
$ 6.1
$ 6.1
$ 92.5
$ 5.3
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 3.1
$ 7.9
$ 13.9
$ 20.9
$ 28.8
$ 37.6
$ 43.9
$ 49.2
$ 53.4
$ 57.0
$ 59.6
$ 61.5
$ 62.9
$ 63.8
$ 64.4
$ 64.7
$ 64.7
$ 64.8
$ 63.5
$ 63.1
$ 948.7
$ 54.5
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.2
$ 2.8
$ 4.7
$ 6.8
$ 9.1
$ 11.5
$ 12.9
$ 14.1
$ 15.1
$ 16.0
$ 16.7
$ 17.3
$ 17.9
$ 18.3
$ 18.7
$ 19.0
$ 19.3
$ 19.5
$ 19.4
$ 19.5
$ 280.0
$ 16.1
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.3
$ 0.6
$ 1.0
$ 1.5
$ 2.0
$ 2.5
$ 2.8
$ 3.1
$ 3.3
$ 3.5
$ 3.6
$ 3.8
$ 3.9
$ 4.0
$ 4.0
$ 4.1
$ 4.2
$ 4.2
$ 4.2
$ 4.2
$ 60.6
$ 3.5
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.6
$ 6.2
$ 10.3
$ 14.9
$ 20.0
$ 25.3
$ 28.5
$ 31.2
$ 33.4
$ 35.4
$ 37.0
$ 38.5
$ 39.7
$ 40.8
$ 41.7
$ 42.4
$ 43.0
$ 43.6
$ 43.3
$ 43.6
$ 621.5
$ 35.7
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.5
$ 6.1
$ 10.3
$ 15.0
$ 19.9
$ 25.0
$ 27.9
$ 29.8
$ 31.2
$ 32.0
$ 32.6
$ 32.9
$ 33.0
$ 33.0
$ 32.9
$ 32.6
$ 32.3
$ 32.0
$ 31.2
$ 30.7
$ 522.9
$ 30.0
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.6
$ 1.3
$ 2.3
$ 3.3
$ 4.4
$ 5.5
$ 6.1
$ 6.5
$ 6.8
$ 7.0
$ 7.1
$ 7.1
$ 7.1
$ 7.1
$ 7.1
$ 7.0
$ 6.9
$ 6.9
$ 6.7
$ 6.6
$ 113.3
$ 6.5
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 5.6
$ 13.4
$ 22.7
$ 33.0
$ 43.8
$ 55.1
$ 61.4
$ 65.9
$ 68.8
$ 71.0
$ 72.2
$ 73.0
$ 73.4
$ 73.4
$ 73.1
$ 72.6
$ 72.0
$ 71.4
$ 69.5
$ 68.6
$ 1,160.0
$ 66.6
Large Systems
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 54.3
$ 136.6
$ 240.1
$ 361.4
$ 456.6
$ 538.8
$ 607.8
$ 664.8
$ 709.4
$ 741.8
$ 765.2
$ 781.5
$ 792.5
$ 799.1
$ 802.4
$ 803.0
$ 801.3
$ 797.9
$ 781.8
$ 773.7
$ 12,410.1
$ 712.7
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 12.0
$ 30.0
$ 52.7
$ 79.3
$ 100.1
$ 117.9
$ 132.8
$ 145.1
$ 154.5
$ 161.3
$ 166.1
$ 169.4
$ 171.4
$ 172.4
$ 173.0
$ 172.7
$ 172.2
$ 171.1
$ 167.8
$ 165.8
$ 2,687.7
$ 154.3
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 119.5
$ 300.8
$ 528.5
$ 795.1
$ 1,005.2
$ 1,188.1
$ 1,339.8
$ 1,468.3
$ 1,567.2
$ 1,642.7
$ 1,695.8
$ 1,734.1
$ 1,761.8
$ 1,776.9
$ 1,785.0
$ 1,787.4
$ 1,784.2
$ 1,781.0
$ 1,743.5
$ 1,728.6
$ 27,533.7
$ 1,581.2
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 51.6
$ 118.8
$ 196.7
$ 282.7
$ 334.7
$ 374.6
$ 405.8
$ 431.8
$ 453.8
$ 472.4
$ 488.2
$ 501.7
$ 513.0
$ 522.4
$ 530.2
$ 536.4
$ 541.4
$ 545.2
$ 540.1
$ 540.4
$ 8,382.0
$ 481.4
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 11.4
$ 26.1
$ 43.2
$ 62.1
$ 73.3
$ 81.9
$ 88.7
$ 94.3
$ 98.8
$ 102.7
$ 106.0
$ 108.7
$ 111.0
$ 112.7
$ 114.3
$ 115.4
$ 116.3
$ 116.9
$ 115.9
$ 115.8
$ 1,815.6
$ 104.3
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 113.6
$ 261.7
$ 433.0
$ 622.1
$ 736.8
$ 825.9
$ 894.6
$ 953.7
$ 1,002.5
$ 1,046.1
$ 1,082.0
$ 1,113.1
$ 1,140.4
$ 1,161.5
$ 1,179.4
$ 1,194.1
$ 1,205.5
$ 1,217.0
$ 1,204.6
$ 1,207.4
$ 18,594.9
$ 1,067.9
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 102.0
$ 242.6
$ 406.8
$ 585.9
$ 694.7
$ 768.9
$ 818.3
$ 851.9
$ 874.3
$ 888.3
$ 896.1
$ 899.0
$ 898.3
$ 894.7
$ 888.9
$ 881.4
$ 872.6
$ 862.8
$ 840.1
$ 826.8
$ 14,994.4
$ 861.1
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 22.5
$ 53.4
$ 89.3
$ 128.6
$ 152.2
$ 168.2
$ 178.8
$ 186.0
$ 190.4
$ 193.1
$ 194.5
$ 194.9
$ 194.3
$ 193.0
$ 191.6
$ 189.6
$ 187.5
$ 185.0
$ 180.3
$ 177.2
$ 3,250.5
$ 186.7
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 224.4
$ 534.4
$ 895.4
$ 1,289.1
$ 1,529.2
$ 1,695.5
$ 1,803.9
$ 1,881.5
$ 1,931.5
$ 1,967.1
$ 1,985.8
$ 1,994.7
$ 1,997.0
$ 1,989.3
$ 1,977.5
$ 1,962.0
$ 1,943.0
$ 1,925.9
$ 1,873.6
$ 1,847.3
$ 33,248.1
$ 1,909.4
            Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2
            Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate.
            Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
            Derived from Exhibits F.3a through F.3i.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
                                                                                                                                                                                                              December 2005

-------
                         Exhibit F.3y Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 7% Discount Rate, by Small & Large Size Categories
                                                                                               (Surface Water Systems)
TTHM - Preferred Alternative

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Ann.
Small Systems
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.2
$ 2.9
$ 4.8
$ 7.0
$ 9.3
$ 11.6
$ 13.1
$ 14.1
$ 14.7
$ 15.1
$ 15.2
$ 15.1
$ 14.8
$ 14.5
$ 14.0
$ 13.6
$ 13.1
$ 12.6
$ 11.9
$ 11.3
$ 229.7
$ 19.7
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.3
$ 0.6
$ 1.1
$ 1.5
$ 2.0
$ 2.5
$ 2.9
$ 3.1
$ 3.2
$ 3.3
$ 3.3
$ 3.3
$ 3.2
$ 3.1
$ 3.0
$ 2.9
$ 2.8
$ 2.7
$ 2.5
$ 2.4
$ 49.8
$ 4.3
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.6
$ 6.3
$ 10.6
$ 15.4
$ 20.5
$ 25.7
$ 28.9
$ 31.1
$ 32.6
$ 33.4
$ 33.7
$ 33.4
$ 32.9
$ 32.1
$ 31.2
$ 30.2
$ 29.1
$ 28.0
$ 26.5
$ 25.3
$ 509.4
$ 43.7
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.0
$ 2.2
$ 3.6
$ 5.0
$ 6.4
$ 7.8
$ 8.5
$ 8.9
$ 9.2
$ 9.4
$ 9.4
$ 9.4
$ 9.4
$ 9.2
$ 9.1
$ 8.9
$ 8.7
$ 8.4
$ 8.1
$ 7.8
$ 150.6
$ 12.9
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.5
$ 0.8
$ 1.1
$ 1.4
$ 1.7
$ 1.9
$ 2.0
$ 2.0
$ 2.0
$ 2.0
$ 2.0
$ 2.0
$ 2.0
$ 2.0
$ 1.9
$ 1.9
$ 1.8
$ 1.7
$ 1.7
$ 32.6
$ 2.8
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.2
$ 4.9
$ 7.9
$ 11.0
$ 14.2
$ 17.3
$ 18.8
$ 19.7
$ 20.4
$ 20.8
$ 20.9
$ 20.9
$ 20.8
$ 20.5
$ 20.2
$ 19.8
$ 19.3
$ 18.9
$ 18.0
$ 17.5
$ 334.0
$ 28.7
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.1
$ 4.9
$ 7.9
$ 11.0
$ 14.1
$ 17.1
$ 18.3
$ 18.9
$ 19.0
$ 18.8
$ 18.4
$ 17.9
$ 17.3
$ 16.6
$ 15.9
$ 15.2
$ 14.5
$ 13.8
$ 13.0
$ 12.3
$ 287.1
$ 24.6
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.5
$ 1.1
$ 1.7
$ 2.4
$ 3.1
$ 3.7
$ 4.0
$ 4.1
$ 4.1
$ 4.1
$ 4.0
$ 3.9
$ 3.7
$ 3.6
$ 3.4
$ 3.3
$ 3.1
$ 3.0
$ 2.8
$ 2.6
$ 62.3
$ 5.3
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 4.6
$ 10.7
$ 17.4
$ 24.3
$ 31.1
$ 37.6
$ 40.4
$ 41.7
$ 41.9
$ 41.6
$ 40.8
$ 39.7
$ 38.4
$ 37.0
$ 35.4
$ 33.9
$ 32.4
$ 30.9
$ 28.9
$ 27.5
$ 636.2
$ 54.6
Large Systems
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 44.9
$ 108.7
$ 183.9
$ 266.4
$ 324.1
$ 368.1
$ 399.7
$ 420.9
$ 432.3
$ 435.2
$ 432.1
$ 424.8
$ 414.7
$ 402.5
$ 389.1
$ 374.8
$ 360.0
$ 345.1
$ 325.5
$ 310.1
$ 6,762.7
$ 580.3
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 9.9
$ 23.9
$ 40.4
$ 58.5
$ 71.0
$ 80.5
$ 87.4
$ 91.9
$ 94.1
$ 94.6
$ 93.8
$ 92.1
$ 89.7
$ 86.8
$ 83.9
$ 80.6
$ 77.3
$ 74.0
$ 69.8
$ 66.5
$ 1,466.8
$ 125.9
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 98.8
$ 239.4
$ 404.8
$ 586.2
$ 713.4
$ 811.7
$ 881.1
$ 929.5
$ 955.0
$ 963.6
$ 957.6
$ 942.6
$ 921.9
$ 895.0
$ 865.5
$ 834.2
$ 801.6
$ 770.3
$ 725.9
$ 692.8
$ 14,990.8
$ 1,286.4
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 42.7
$ 94.5
$ 150.7
$ 208.4
$ 237.5
$ 255.9
$ 266.9
$ 273.4
$ 276.5
$ 277.1
$ 275.7
$ 272.7
$ 268.4
$ 263.1
$ 257.0
$ 250.4
$ 243.2
$ 235.8
$ 224.9
$ 216.6
$ 4,591.5
$ 394.0
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 9.4
$ 20.8
$ 33.1
$ 45.8
$ 52.1
$ 56.0
$ 58.3
$ 59.7
$ 60.2
$ 60.2
$ 59.8
$ 59.1
$ 58.1
$ 56.8
$ 55.4
$ 53.9
$ 52.3
$ 50.6
$ 48.3
$ 46.4
$ 996.1
$ 85.5
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 93.9
$ 208.2
$ 331.7
$ 458.6
$ 522.9
$ 564.3
$ 588.3
$ 603.7
$ 610.9
$ 613.6
$ 611.0
$ 605.0
$ 596.7
$ 585.0
$ 571.8
$ 557.3
$ 541.6
$ 526.3
$ 501.5
$ 483.9
$ 10,176.4
$ 873.2
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 84.3
$ 193.0
$ 311.6
$ 432.0
$ 493.0
$ 525.3
$ 538.1
$ 539.3
$ 532.8
$ 521.1
$ 506.0
$ 488.7
$ 470.0
$ 450.6
$ 431.0
$ 411.4
$ 392.0
$ 373.1
$ 349.7
$ 331.4
$ 8,374.6
$ 718.6
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 18.6
$ 42.5
$ 68.4
$ 94.8
$ 108.0
$ 114.9
$ 117.6
$ 117.7
$ 116.0
$ 113.3
$ 109.8
$ 105.9
$ 101.7
$ 97.2
$ 92.9
$ 88.5
$ 84.2
$ 80.0
$ 75.1
$ 71.0
$ 1,818.3
$ 156.0
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 185.5
$ 425.2
$ 685.8
$ 950.4
$ 1,085.3
$ 1,158.3
$ 1,186.3
$ 1,191.1
$ 1,177.1
$ 1,153.9
$ 1,121.3
$ 1,084.3
$ 1,045.0
$ 1,002.0
$ 958.8
$ 915.7
$ 872.9
$ 832.9
$ 780.0
$ 740.3
$ 18,552.2
$ 1,592.0
          Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005.
          Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate.
          Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
          Derived from Exhibits F.3a through F.3i.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
                                                                                                                                                                                                       December 2005

-------
                      Exhibit F.3z Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 3% Discount Rate, by Small & Large Size Categories
                                                                                          (Ground Water Systems)
  TTHM - Preferred Alternative
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Ann.
Small Systems
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.6
$ 1.4
$ 2.5
$ 3.7
$ 5.1
$ 6.7
$ 7.8
$ 8.7
$ 9.5
$ 10.1
$ 10.5
$ 10.9
$ 11.1
$ 11.3
$ 11.3
$ 11.4
$ 11.4
$ 11.4
$ 11.2
$ 11.1
$ 167.6
$ 9.6
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.3
$ 0.5
$ 0.8
$ 1.1
$ 1.5
$ 1.7
$ 1.9
$ 2.1
$ 2.2
$ 2.3
$ 2.4
$ 2.4
$ 2.4
$ 2.4
$ 2.5
$ 2.4
$ 2.4
$ 2.4
$ 2.4
$ 36.3
$ 2.1
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.2
$ 3.1
$ 5.5
$ 8.2
$ 11.3
$ 14.7
$ 17.2
$ 19.3
$ 21.0
$ 22.3
$ 23.4
$ 24.1
$ 24.7
$ 25.0
$ 25.2
$ 25.4
$ 25.4
$ 25.4
$ 24.9
$ 24.7
$ 372.0
$ 21.4
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.5
$ 1.1
$ 1.8
$ 2.7
$ 3.6
$ 4.5
$ 5.1
$ 5.5
$ 5.9
$ 6.3
$ 6.6
$ 6.8
$ 7.0
$ 7.2
$ 7.3
$ 7.5
$ 7.6
$ 7.7
$ 7.6
$ 7.6
$ 109.8
$ 6.3
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.4
$ 0.6
$ 0.8
$ 1.0
$ 1.1
$ 1.2
$ 1.3
$ 1.4
$ 1.4
$ 1.5
$ 1.5
$ 1.6
$ 1.6
$ 1.6
$ 1.6
$ 1.6
$ 1.6
$ 1.6
$ 23.8
$ 1.4
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.0
$ 2.4
$ 4.0
$ 5.9
$ 7.8
$ 9.9
$ 11.2
$ 12.2
$ 13.1
$ 13.9
$ 14.5
$ 15.1
$ 15.6
$ 16.0
$ 16.3
$ 16.6
$ 16.9
$ 17.1
$ 17.0
$ 17.1
$ 243.8
$ 14.0
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.0
$ 2.4
$ 4.1
$ 5.9
$ 7.8
$ 9.8
$ 10.9
$ 11.7
$ 12.2
$ 12.6
$ 12.8
$ 12.9
$ 12.9
$ 12.9
$ 12.9
$ 12.8
$ 12.7
$ 12.5
$ 12.2
$ 12.0
$ 205.0
$ 11.8
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.5
$ 0.9
$ 1.3
$ 1.7
$ 2.1
$ 2.4
$ 2.6
$ 2.7
$ 2.7
$ 2.8
$ 2.8
$ 2.8
$ 2.8
$ 2.8
$ 2.8
$ 2.7
$ 2.7
$ 2.6
$ 2.6
$ 44.4
$ 2.6
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.2
$ 5.3
$ 8.9
$ 12.9
$ 17.2
$ 21.6
$ 24.1
$ 25.8
$ 27.0
$ 27.8
$ 28.3
$ 28.6
$ 28.8
$ 28.8
$ 28.7
$ 28.5
$ 28.2
$ 28.0
$ 27.3
$ 26.9
$ 454.8
$ 26.1
Large Systems
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.1
$ 2.9
$ 5.1
$ 7.6
$ 9.9
$ 11.9
$ 13.4
$ 14.7
$ 15.8
$ 16.6
$ 17.1
$ 17.5
$ 17.8
$ 18.0
$ 18.1
$ 18.1
$ 18.1
$ 18.0
$ 17.7
$ 17.5
$ 277.0
$ 15.9
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.3
$ 0.6
$ 1.1
$ 1.7
$ 2.2
$ 2.6
$ 2.9
$ 3.2
$ 3.4
$ 3.6
$ 3.7
$ 3.8
$ 3.9
$ 3.9
$ 3.9
$ 3.9
$ 3.9
$ 3.9
$ 3.8
$ 3.8
$ 60.0
$ 3.4
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.5
$ 6.3
$ 11.1
$ 16.7
$ 21.7
$ 26.1
$ 29.6
$ 32.6
$ 34.9
$ 36.7
$ 38.0
$ 38.9
$ 39.6
$ 40.0
$ 40.2
$ 40.3
$ 40.3
$ 40.3
$ 39.4
$ 39.1
$ 614.5
$ 35.3
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.0
$ 2.2
$ 3.7
$ 5.4
$ 6.7
$ 7.8
$ 8.6
$ 9.2
$ 9.8
$ 10.3
$ 10.7
$ 11.0
$ 11.3
$ 11.6
$ 11.8
$ 12.0
$ 12.1
$ 12.2
$ 12.2
$ 12.2
$ 181.8
$ 10.4
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.5
$ 0.8
$ 1.2
$ 1.5
$ 1.7
$ 1.9
$ 2.0
$ 2.1
$ 2.2
$ 2.3
$ 2.4
$ 2.4
$ 2.5
$ 2.5
$ 2.6
$ 2.6
$ 2.6
$ 2.6
$ 2.6
$ 39.4
$ 2.3
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.1
$ 4.9
$ 8.2
$ 11.9
$ 14.8
$ 17.2
$ 18.9
$ 20.4
$ 21.6
$ 22.7
$ 23.6
$ 24.5
$ 25.2
$ 25.7
$ 26.2
$ 26.7
$ 27.0
$ 27.3
$ 27.1
$ 27.2
$ 403.4
$ 23.2
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.0
$ 4.9
$ 8.3
$ 12.0
$ 14.9
$ 16.9
$ 18.3
$ 19.2
$ 19.8
$ 20.2
$ 20.5
$ 20.6
$ 20.6
$ 20.5
$ 20.4
$ 20.2
$ 20.0
$ 19.8
$ 19.3
$ 19.0
$ 337.3
$ 19.4
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.4
$ 1.1
$ 1.8
$ 2.6
$ 3.3
$ 3.7
$ 4.0
$ 4.2
$ 4.3
$ 4.4
$ 4.4
$ 4.5
$ 4.5
$ 4.4
$ 4.4
$ 4.3
$ 4.3
$ 4.2
$ 4.1
$ 4.1
$ 73.1
$ 4.2
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 4.4
$ 10.7
$ 18.2
$ 26.4
$ 32.7
$ 37.4
$ 40.3
$ 42.5
$ 43.8
$ 44.8
$ 45.4
$ 45.7
$ 45.8
$ 45.6
$ 45.4
$ 45.0
$ 44.6
$ 44.2
$ 43.0
$ 42.3
$ 748.0
$ 43.0
            Present values in millions of 2003 dollars.  Estimates are discounted to 2005.
            Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate.
            Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
            Derived from Exhibits F.3k through F.3s.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
                                                                                                                                                                                              December 2005

-------
                      Exhibit F.Saa  Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 7% Discount Rate, by Small & Large Size Categories
                                                                                           (Surface Water Systems)
  TTHM - Preferred Alternative
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Ann.
Small Systems
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.5
$ 1.1
$ 1.9
$ 2.7
$ 3.6
$ 4.6
$ 5.1
$ 5.5
$ 5.8
$ 5.9
$ 6.0
$ 5.9
$ 5.8
$ 5.7
$ 5.5
$ 5.3
$ 5.1
$ 4.9
$ 4.7
$ 4.4
$ 90.1
$ 7.7
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.4
$ 0.6
$ 0.8
$ 1.0
$ 1.1
$ 1.2
$ 1.3
$ 1.3
$ 1.3
$ 1.3
$ 1.3
$ 1.2
$ 1.2
$ 1.1
$ 1.1
$ 1.1
$ 1.0
$ 1.0
$ 19.5
$ 1.7
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.0
$ 2.5
$ 4.2
$ 6.0
$ 8.0
$ 10.1
$ 11.3
$ 12.2
$ 12.8
$ 13.1
$ 13.2
$ 13.1
$ 12.9
$ 12.6
$ 12.2
$ 11.8
$ 11.4
$ 11.0
$ 10.4
$ 9.9
$ 199.8
$ 17.1
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.4
$ 0.9
$ 1.4
$ 2.0
$ 2.5
$ 3.1
$ 3.3
$ 3.5
$ 3.6
$ 3.7
$ 3.7
$ 3.7
$ 3.7
$ 3.6
$ 3.6
$ 3.5
$ 3.4
$ 3.3
$ 3.2
$ 3.1
$ 59.1
$ 5.1
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.6
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 12.8
$ 1.1
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.9
$ 1.9
$ 3.1
$ 4.3
$ 5.6
$ 6.8
$ 7.4
$ 7.7
$ 8.0
$ 8.1
$ 8.2
$ 8.2
$ 8.2
$ 8.1
$ 7.9
$ 7.8
$ 7.6
$ 7.4
$ 7.1
$ 6.8
$ 131.0
$ 11.2
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.8
$ 1.9
$ 3.1
$ 4.3
$ 5.5
$ 6.7
$ 7.2
$ 7.4
$ 7.4
$ 7.4
$ 7.2
$ 7.0
$ 6.8
$ 6.5
$ 6.2
$ 6.0
$ 5.7
$ 5.4
$ 5.1
$ 4.8
$ 112.6
$ 9.7
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.4
$ 0.7
$ 1.0
$ 1.2
$ 1.5
$ 1.6
$ 1.6
$ 1.6
$ 1.6
$ 1.6
$ 1.5
$ 1.5
$ 1.4
$ 1.3
$ 1.3
$ 1.2
$ 1.2
$ 1.1
$ 1.0
$ 24.4
$ 2.1
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.8
$ 4.2
$ 6.8
$ 9.5
$ 12.2
$ 14.8
$ 15.8
$ 16.3
$ 16.4
$ 16.3
$ 16.0
$ 15.6
$ 15.1
$ 14.5
$ 13.9
$ 13.3
$ 12.7
$ 12.1
$ 11.4
$ 10.8
$ 249.5
$ 21.4
Large Systems
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.9
$ 2.3
$ 3.9
$ 5.6
$ 7.0
$ 8.1
$ 8.8
$ 9.3
$ 9.6
$ 9.7
$ 9.7
$ 9.5
$ 9.3
$ 9.1
$ 8.8
$ 8.5
$ 8.1
$ 7.8
$ 7.4
$ 7.0
$ 150.5
$ 12.9
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.5
$ 0.8
$ 1.2
$ 1.5
$ 1.8
$ 1.9
$ 2.0
$ 2.1
$ 2.1
$ 2.1
$ 2.1
$ 2.0
$ 2.0
$ 1.9
$ 1.8
$ 1.7
$ 1.7
$ 1.6
$ 1.5
$ 32.6
$ 2.8
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.1
$ 5.0
$ 8.5
$ 12.3
$ 15.4
$ 17.9
$ 19.5
$ 20.6
$ 21.3
$ 21.5
$ 21.4
$ 21.2
$ 20.7
$ 20.2
$ 19.5
$ 18.8
$ 18.1
$ 17.4
$ 16.4
$ 15.7
$ 333.5
$ 28.6
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.8
$ 1.8
$ 2.9
$ 4.0
$ 4.8
$ 5.3
$ 5.6
$ 5.8
$ 6.0
$ 6.0
$ 6.0
$ 6.0
$ 5.9
$ 5.8
$ 5.7
$ 5.6
$ 5.4
$ 5.3
$ 5.1
$ 4.9
$ 98.8
$ 8.5
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.4
$ 0.6
$ 0.9
$ 1.0
$ 1.2
$ 1.2
$ 1.3
$ 1.3
$ 1.3
$ 1.3
$ 1.3
$ 1.3
$ 1.3
$ 1.2
$ 1.2
$ 1.2
$ 1.1
$ 1.1
$ 1.0
$ 21.4
$ 1.8
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.7
$ 3.9
$ 6.3
$ 8.8
$ 10.5
$ 11.7
$ 12.4
$ 12.9
$ 13.2
$ 13.3
$ 13.4
$ 13.3
$ 13.2
$ 13.0
$ 12.7
$ 12.4
$ 12.1
$ 11.8
$ 11.3
$ 10.9
$ 218.9
$ 18.8
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.7
$ 3.9
$ 6.3
$ 8.8
$ 10.5
$ 11.6
$ 12.0
$ 12.2
$ 12.1
$ 11.9
$ 11.6
$ 11.2
$ 10.8
$ 10.3
$ 9.9
$ 9.4
$ 9.0
$ 8.6
$ 8.0
$ 7.6
$ 187.3
$ 16.1
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.4
$ 0.9
$ 1.4
$ 1.9
$ 2.3
$ 2.5
$ 2.6
$ 2.7
$ 2.6
$ 2.6
$ 2.5
$ 2.4
$ 2.3
$ 2.2
$ 2.1
$ 2.0
$ 1.9
$ 1.8
$ 1.7
$ 1.6
$ 40.7
$ 3.5
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 3.7
$ 8.5
$ 13.9
$ 19.4
$ 23.2
$ 25.5
$ 26.5
$ 26.9
$ 26.7
$ 26.3
$ 25.6
$ 24.8
$ 23.9
$ 23.0
$ 22.0
$ 21.0
$ 20.0
$ 19.1
$ 17.9
$ 17.0
$ 415.0
$ 35.6
            Present values in millions of 2003 dollars.  Estimates are discounted to 2005.
            Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate.
            Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
            Derived from Exhibits F.3k through F.3s.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
                                                                                                                                                                                               December 2005

-------
                                                                                 Exhibit F.3ab Mean Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Bronchitis a
                                                                                                                                               (All Systems)
                                                                                                                                                               ; Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 3% Discount Rate, by System Size
    TTHM - Preferred Alternative
Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Ann.
<100
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
S 00
$ 00
$ 0 1
S 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 02
$ 02
S 02
$ 02
$ 02
$ 02
$ 02
$ 02
$ 02
$ 02
S 02
$ 02
$ 02

100-499
$
$
$
$
$ 02
$ 04
$ 06
$ 1 0
$ 1 3
$ 1 4
$ 1 5
$ 1 6
$ 1 6
$ 1 7
$ 1 7
$ 1 7
$ 1 7
$ 1 7
$ 1 7
$ 1 7
$ 1 7

500-999
S
$
$
s
$ 03
$ 05
S 07
$ 1 3
S 1 7
$ 19
$ 20
$ 2 1
S 2 1
$ 22
$ 22
$ 22
S 23
$ 23
$ 22
$ 22
$ 22

1,000-3,299
S
$
$
s
$ 1 3
$ 23
S 35
$ 62
$ 81
$ 88
$ 93
$ 98
S 10 1
$ 103
$ 104
$ 105
S 106
$ 106
$ 105
$ 103
$ 103

3,300-9,999
$
$
$
$
$ 32
$ 56
$ B4
$ 15 1
S 197
$ 214
$ 228
$ 238
S 245
$ 25 1
$ 254
$ 256
S 257
$ 257
$ 257
$ 252
$ 250

10,000-49,999
$
$
$
$
« HI
$ 429
$ 742
$ 955
$ 1034
$ 1097
$ 1143
$ 1175
$ 121 3
$ 1221
$ 1225
$ 1225
$ 1221
$ 1198
$ 	 IITT.

50,000-99,999
S
$
$
$
$
$ 136
$ 240
S 36 1
$ 562
$ 698
$ 748
$ 784
$ 81 0
S 829
$ 84 1
$ 849
$ 853
S 854
$ 852
$ 849
$ 832
$ 	 824.

100,000-
999599
S
$
$
s
$ 597
$ 1049
S 1578
$ 1959
$ 2287
S 2799
$ 2977
$ 3104
$ 3195
S 3258
$ 3300
$ 3325
$ 3337
S 3337
$ 3329
$ 3314
$ 3246
$ 321 2

>1, 000,000
$
$
$
s
$ 199
$ 499
$ 1322
$ 164 1
$ 191 5
$ 2344
$ 2493
$ 2599
$ 2675
$ 272 B
$ 2785
$ 2794
$ 2795
$ 2788
$ 2775
$ 271 8
$ 2690

Total
$
S
$
$
$ 574
S 1444
$ 2539
$ 3822
S 5744
$ 7106
$ 7588
S 7942
$ 8198
$ 8377
$ 857 1
$ 861 5
$ 8599
S 8563
$ 8391
$ 8306
$ 762.8
Smoking
<100
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ 00
$ 00
$ 00
$ 00
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 0 1

100-499
$
$
S
$
$ 0 1
$ 02
$ 03
S 04
$ 07
$ 08
S 08
$ 09
$ 09
$ 1 0
S 1 0
$ 1 1
$ 1 1
S 1 1
$ 1 1
$ 1 1
$ 1 1
$ 1 1

500-999
$
$
$
S
$ 0 1
$ 02
$ 04
$ 05
$ 09
$ 1 0
$ 1 1
$ 1 2
$ 1 2
$ 1 3
$ 1 3
$ 1 4
$ 1 5
$ 1 5
$ 1 5
$ 1 5
$ 1 5
$ 1 5

1,000-3,299
$
$
$

$ 04
S 1 0
$ 1 7
$ 25
S 42
$ 47
$ 5 1
$ 55
S 58
$ 6 1
$ 63
$ 67
$ 68
$ 69
$ 70
S 7 1
$ 7 1
$ 7 1

/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model
3,300-9,999
$
$
$

$ 1 1
$ 25
$ 42
$ 60
$ 80
$ 102
$ 125
$ 134
$ 14 1
$ 148
$ 154
$ 162
$ 166
$ 169
$ 17 1
$ 173
$ 172
$ 173

10,000-49,999
$
$
$


$ 140
$ 232
$ 333
$ 442
$ 530
$ 631
$ 669
$ 701
$ 729
$ 752
$ 801
$ 81 3
$ 822
$ 829
$ B22
$ 	 82^

50,000-99,999
$
$


$ 196
$ 350
S 392
$ 455
$ 479
S 499
$ 51 7
$ 531
$ 554
$ 563
$ 569
$ 575
S 579
$ 574
$ 575

100,000-
999,999
$
$


S 51 8
$ 1233
S 1579
$ 1809
$ 1897
S 1973
$ 2037
$ 2092
$ 2176
$ 2207
$ 2232
$ 2252
S 2267
$ 2246
$ 	 2247_

>1, 000,000
s
$
s
S 434
$ 71 9
$ 1034
S 1323
$ 151 6
$ 1590
S 1653
$ 1707
$ 1752
S 1822
$ 1849
$ 1870
$ 1886
S 1899
$ 1881
$ 1SS1

Total
$
$
$
S 1250
$ 2070
$ 2976
S 3983
$ 4607
$ 4846
S 5049
$ 5222
$ 5368
$ 5595
$ 5680
$ 5749
$ 5804
S 5846
$ 5793
$ 5798

Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model
<100
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ 00
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 02
$ 02
$ 02
$ 02
$ 02
$ 02
$ 02
$ 02
$ 02
$ 02
$ 02
$ 02
$ 02

100-499
S
$
$
s
$ 04
$ 06
S 09
$ 1 5
$ 18
$ 18
$ 1 9
$ 1 9
S 1 9
$ 1 9
$ 1 9
S 1 9
$ 1 9
$ 1 9
$ 1 a
$ — ^

500-999
$
$
$
$
S 05
$ 08
$ 1 2
S 1 9
$ 23
$ 24
S 25
$ 25
$ 25
$ 26
$ 25
$ 25
$ 25
S 25
$ 24
$ 24

1,000-3,299
S
$
$
s
$ 22
$ 38
S 54
$ 9 1
S 108
$ 113
$ 116
$ 118
S 119
$ 120
S 118
$ 117
$ 116
$ 113
$ 111

3,300-9,999
$
$
$
$
$

$ 91
$ 133
$ 22 1
$ 264
$ 276
$ 284
$ 289
$ 29 1
$ 292
$ 289
$ 286
$ 283
$ 276
$ 272

10,000-
49,999
$
$
$
$
$

$ 481
$ 694
$ 1092
$ 1263
$ 131 0
$ 134 1
$ 1360
$ 1370
$ 1370
$ 1364
$ 1354
$ 1342
$ 1328
$ 1294
$ 1274

50,000-99,999
$
$
$
$
$

$ 406
$ 585
« =,=
$ 902
$ 927
$ 943
$ 952
$ 956

$ 947
$ 939
$ 930
$ 91 9
$ 895
J 	 88^

100,000-
999,999
S
$
$
$
s

$ 1776
$ 2558
S 3243
$ 3563
$ 3649
S 3702
$ 3730
$ 3739

$ 3692
$ 3659
$ 3622
S 3580
$ 3486
$ 3430

> 1,000,000
$
$
s
$
$

$ 1487
$ 2142
S 271 6
$ 2983
$ 3055
S 3099
$ 3123
$ 313 1

$ 309 1
$ 3064
$ 3033
S 2998
$ 291 9
$ 2872

Total
S
$
$
$
S
$ 1076
$ 4294
$ 6187
S 8206
$ 9127
$ 9375
S 9532
$ 961 9
$ 9654
$ 9550
$ 9471
$ 9376
S 9271
$ 9028


Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            December 2005

-------
                                                                                  Exhibit F.3ac Mean Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Bronchitis
                                                                                                                                                (All Systems)
                                                                                                                                                               s Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 7% Discount Rate, by System Size
       TTHM - Preferred Alternative
Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model
Year
2005
2007
2009
2010
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2027
2029
Total
Ann.
<100
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ 00
$ 00
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 0.1
101-500
$
$
$
$ 0 1
S 02
$ 04
S 07
$ OB
S 09
$ 09
$ 09
$ 00
$ OB
$ OB
S 07
$ 07

501 -1K
$
$
$
$ 0 1
$ 02
$ 05
$ 09
$ 1 1
$ 1 2
$ 1 2
$ 1 1
$ 1 1
$ 1 1
$ 1 1
$ 1 0
$ 09

1,001-3,3K
$
$
$
$ 04
$ 1 0
$ 25
$ 42
$ 5 1
$ 55
$ 55
$ 54
$ 52
$ 5 1
$ 49
« 4 =
$ 4 1

3,301-1 OK
S
$
s
$ 1 0
S 25
$ 62
S 103
$ 125
S 134
$ 133
S 131
$ 12B
$ 124
$ 120
S 11 1
$ 100

10.001-60K
$
$
$
$ 53
$ 129
$ 31 6
$ 507
$ 605
$ 643
$ 639
$ 627
$ 61 1
$ 592
$ 572
$ 52 B
$ 476

50,001 -100K
$
$
$
$ 45
$ 109
$ 266
« 3=4
$ 442
$ 460
$ 45 1
$ 440
$ 42 B
$ 414
$ 399
$ 367
$ 330

100,001 -1M
$
$
$
$ 196
$ 475
« ,, = 4
$ 1563
$ 1772
$ 1B21
$ 1771
$ 1727
$ 1675
$ 161 B
$ 155B
$ 1433
« ,2=7

>1M
$
$
$
$ 164
S 397
$ 974
S 1309
« ,4=4
S 1525
$ 14B3
S 1446
$ 1403
$ 1355
$ 1304
S 1200
$ 107B

Total
$
S
$
$ 475
S 1149
« 2=,=
S 3924
$ 449 B
S 4659
$ 4553
$ 4446
S 431 7
$ 4174
$ 4021
S 3703
$ 3329

Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model
<100
S -
$ -
s -
$ 00
$ 00
S 00
$ 0 1
S 0 1
$ 0 1
S 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
S 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 0 1

101-500
$
s
$
$ 01
$ 0 1
S 03
$ 05
S 05
$ 06
S 06
$ 05
$ 05
$ 05
S 05
$ 05
$ 05

501 -1K
$
$
$
$ 01
$ 02
$ 04
$ 06
$ 07
$ 07
$ 07
$ 07
$ 07
$ 07
$ 07
$ 07
$ 06

1,001-3,3K
$
$
$
$ 04
S OB
« ,=
S 29
$ 32
S 34
$ 34
$ 34
$ 34
$ 33
$ 32
S 3 1
« 2 =

3.301-10K
$
S
$
$ 09
S 20
$ 44
S 69
$ 79
S S3
$ S3
$ 83
S B2
$ BO
$ 79
S 75
$ 69

10.001-60K
$
$
$
$ 50
S 11 1
$ 246
$ 362
$ 400
$ 41 1
$ 409
$ 404
$ 397
$ 389
$ 379
$ 358
$ 330

50,001 -100K
$
$
$
$ 43
S 94
$ 208
$ 268
$ 288
$ 293
$ 289
$ 284
$ 279
$ 273
$ 266
$ 250
$ 230

100,001 -1M
$
$
$
$ 186
S 412
$ 909
$ 1078
$ 1145
$ 1157
$ 1137
$ 1118
$ 1096
$ 1070
$ 1042
« ==,
$ 900

>1M
$
$
$
$ 156
$ 346
$ 762
S 904
$ 959
S 970
$ 952
$ 937
$ 91 8
$ 896
$ 873
S 82 1
$ 754

Total
S
$
S
$ 449
$ 994
S 2194
$ 272 1
S 291 6
$ 2962
S 291 8
$ 2874
$ 281 8
$ 2754
$ 28= =
$ 2528
$ 2324

Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model
<100
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ 00
S 00
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 0 1

101-500
$
$
$
$ 0 1
$ 03
$ 06
S 1 0
$ 1 1
S 1 1
$ 1 1
$ 1 0
$ 1 0
$ 09
$ 09
S 08
$ 07

501 -1K
S
$
s
$ 02
$ 04
S 09
$ 1 3
S 1 5
$ 1 5
S 1 4
$ 1 3
$ 1 3
$ 1 2
S 1 2
$ 1 1
$ 1 0

1,001-3,3K
$
$
$
$ 08
$ ,=
$ 40
S 62
$ 69
« = =
$ 65
S 63
$ 60
$ 58
$ 55
S 50
$ 45

3.301-10K
S
$
s
$ 18
$ 43
S 98
$ 151
S 167
$ 166
S 158
$ 153
$ 147
$ 141
S 135
$ 123
$ 109

10.001-50K
$
S
$
$ 100
$ 22 =
$ 51 1
« 74 =
$ BOO
« 7=7
$ 745
$ 718
S 690
$ 661
$ 632
S 574
$ 51 1

50,001 -100K
S
$
s
$ 84
S 193
$ 43 1
S 552
$ 57 1
S 553
$ 520
$ 500
$ 480
$ 459
$ 438
S 398
$ 353

100,001 -1M
$
$
$
$ 368
$ B42
« ,===
$ 221 6
S 2256
$ 2171
S 2032
$ 1954
$ 1872
$ 1790
S 1708
$ 1548
$ 1375

>1M
S
$
s
$ 308
$ 706
$ 1580
$ 1855
S 1889

S 1702
$ 1636
$ 1568
$ 1499
S 1430
$ 1297
$ 115 1
S 2,943.4

Total
$
$
$
$ 889
$ 2037
$ 4562
S 5606
$ 5778
S 559 1
$ 5248
S 5048
$ 4841
$ 463 1
$ 4420
S 401 0
$ 356 1
S 8,961.5

             De rived fromExh
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              December 2005

-------
           Section F.4
Model Outputs - Preferred Alternative
        HAAS as Indicator
  Lymphoma for Non-Fatal Cases

-------

-------
          Exhibit F.4a Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                                          (All Surface Water Systems)

 HAAS - Preferred Alternative
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 146.7
$ 379.5
$ 686.6
$ 1,063.7
$ 1,386.8
$ 1,689.8
$ 1,965.0
$ 2,214.9
$ 2,434.4
$ 2,622.1
$ 2,785.0
$ 2,928.4
$ 3,056.7
$ 3,172.8
$ 3,279.0
$ 3,377.1
$ 3,468.5
$ 3,554.4
$ 3,588.4
$ 3,655.8
$ 47,455.7
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 22.5
$ 58.1
$ 105.1
$ 162.8
$ 212.0
$ 258.4
$ 300.2
$ 338.2
$ 371.2
$ 399.4
$ 424.1
$ 445.4
$ 464.8
$ 482.6
$ 498.5
$ 512.6
$ 525.8
$ 538.2
$ 543.8
$ 553.2
$ 7,216.8
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 337.3
$ 872.9
$ 1,577.2
$ 2,443.2
$ 3,188.0
$ 3,886.3
$ 4,519.0
$ 5,098.5
$ 5,608.5
$ 6,051.0
$ 6,429.7
$ 6,761.4
$ 7,069.5
$ 7,339.9
$ 7,588.5
$ 7,816.0
$ 8,034.5
$ 8,245.9
$ 8,320.3
$ 8,484.5
$ 109,672.1
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 141.5
$ 334.6
$ 569.6
$ 841.7
$ 1 ,026.9
$ 1,185.1
$ 1,321.4
$ 1 ,446.9
$ 1 ,564.4
$ 1,675.7
$ 1,781.9
$ 1,883.7
$ 1,981.8
$ 2,076.5
$ 2,168.3
$ 2,257.5
$ 2,344.3
$ 2,428.9
$ 2,479.0
$ 2,552.7
$ 32,062.5
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 21.7
$ 51.2
$ 87.2
$ 128.8
$ 157.0
$ 181.2
$ 201.9
$ 220.9
$ 238.5
$ 255.3
$ 271.3
$ 286.5
$ 301 .4
$ 315.8
$ 329.6
$ 342.7
$ 355.4
$ 367.8
$ 375.7
$ 386.3
$ 4,876.1
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 325.3
$ 769.6
$ 1,308.4
$ 1,933.3
$ 2,360.6
$ 2,725.6
$ 3,038.9
$ 3,330.6
$ 3,604.1
$ 3,867.0
$ 4,113.9
$ 4,349.3
$ 4,583.5
$ 4,803.8
$ 5,018.1
$ 5,224.7
$ 5,430.2
$ 5,634.9
$ 5,748.0
$ 5,924.5
$ 74,094.3
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 277.6
$ 678.0
$ 1,168.7
$ 1,731.0
$ 2,115.5
$ 2,416.3
$ 2,648.7
$ 2,839.4
$ 2,999.9
$ 3,137.7
$ 3,258.0
$ 3,364.6
$ 3,460.4
$ 3,547.5
$ 3,627.7
$ 3,702.3
$ 3,772.3
$ 3,838.7
$ 3,851.5
$ 3,902.2
$ 56,337.8
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 42.5
$ 103.8
$ 178.8
$ 265.0
$ 323.4
$ 369.5
$ 404.6
$ 433.6
$ 457.4
$ 478.0
$ 496.1
$ 511.7
$ 526.2
$ 539.5
$ 551.5
$ 562.0
$ 571.8
$ 581.2
$ 583.7
$ 590.5
$ 8,570.8
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 638.1
$ 1 ,559.6
$ 2,684.8
$ 3,976.0
$ 4,863.1
$ 5,557.2
$ 6,091.2
$ 6,535.9
$ 6,911.1
$ 7,240.8
$ 7,521.8
$ 7,768.5
$ 8,003.1
$ 8,206.6
$ 8,395.3
$ 8,568.5
$ 8,738.1
$ 8,905.5
$ 8,930.3
$ 9,056.5
$ 130,151.9
 Notes:      All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
           Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
 Source:     Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.39b, E.39f, and E.39J.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
        Exhibit F.4b Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                                        (All Ground Water Systems)

 HAAS - Preferred Alternative
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 9.6
$ 24.9
$ 45.1
$ 69.8
$ 95.2
$ 121.0
$ 142.9
$ 162.5
$ 180.1
$ 195.5
$ 209.0
$ 220.8
$ 231.3
$ 240.7
$ 249.3
$ 257.3
$ 264.6
$ 271.5
$ 274.4
$ 279.8
$ 3,545.3
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.5
$ 3.8
$ 6.9
$ 10.7
$ 14.6
$ 18.5
$ 21.8
$ 24.8
$ 27.5
$ 29.8
$ 31.8
$ 33.6
$ 35.2
$ 36.6
$ 37.9
$ 39.0
$ 40.1
$ 41.1
$ 41.6
$ 42.3
$ 539.1
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
-
$
$ 22.0
$ 57.2
$ 103.5
$ 160.3
$ 218.9
$ 278.4
$ 328.6
$ 374.1
$ 414.8
$ 451.2
$ 482.6
$ 509.8
$ 534.9
$ 556.9
$ 577.0
$ 595.4
$ 613.0
$ 629.9
$ 636.3
$ 649.4
$ 8,194.0
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 8.2
$ 19.6
$ 33.7
$ 50.2
$ 65.8
$ 80.7
$ 92.2
$ 102.6
$ 112.3
$ 121.5
$ 130.3
$ 138.7
$ 146.8
$ 154.7
$ 162.3
$ 169.6
$ 176.8
$ 183.8
$ 188.1
$ 194.2
$ 2,332.2
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
-
$
$ 1.3
$ 3.0
$ 5.2
$ 7.7
$ 10.1
$ 12.3
$ 14.1
$ 15.7
$ 17.1
$ 18.5
$ 19.8
$ 21.1
$ 22.3
$ 23.5
$ 24.7
$ 25.7
$ 26.8
$ 27.8
$ 28.5
$ 29.4
$ 354.6
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
-
$
$ 18.8
$ 45.1
$ 77.4
$ 115.4
$ 151.2
$ 185.7
$ 211.9
$ 236.1
$ 258.7
$ 280.4
$ 300.8
$ 320.3
$ 339.6
$ 357.8
$ 375.5
$ 392.6
$ 409.5
$ 426.3
$ 436.2
$ 450.8
$ 5,390.4
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 17.1
$ 42.4
$ 73.9
$ 110.3
$ 144.0
$ 174.8
$ 196.6
$ 214.0
$ 228.3
$ 240.4
$ 250.8
$ 259.8
$ 267.8
$ 275.0
$ 281.5
$ 287.4
$ 293.0
$ 298.2
$ 299.2
$ 303.1
$ 4,257.7
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
-
$
$ 2.6
$ 6.5
$ 11.3
$ 16.9
$ 22.0
$ 26.7
$ 30.0
$ 32.7
$ 34.8
$ 36.6
$ 38.2
$ 39.5
$ 40.7
$ 41.8
$ 42.8
$ 43.6
$ 44.4
$ 45.1
$ 45.3
$ 45.9
$ 647.6
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
-
$
$ 39.3
$ 97.6
$ 169.8
$ 253.3
$ 331.0
$ 402.1
$ 452.0
$ 492.5
$ 526.0
$ 554.9
$ 579.1
$ 600.0
$ 619.4
$ 636.1
$ 651.4
$ 665.3
$ 678.7
$ 691.8
$ 693.7
$ 703.5
$ 9,837.4
 Notes:  All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
        Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
 Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.39c, E.39g, and E.39k.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
               Exhibit F.4c  Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                                                   (All Water Systems)
 HAAS - Preferred Alternative
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 156.3
$ 404.4
$ 731.6
$ 1,133.4
$ 1,482.1
$ 1,810.9
$ 2,107.9
$ 2,377.4
$ 2,614.5
$ 2,817.6
$ 2,994.0
$ 3,149.2
$ 3,288.0
$ 3,413.5
$ 3,528.4
$ 3,634.4
$ 3,733.2
$ 3,825.9
$ 3,862.8
$ 3,935.6
$ 51,001.0
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 23.9
$ 61.9
$ 112.0
$ 173.5
$ 226.6
$ 276.9
$ 322.0
$ 363.0
$ 398.7
$ 429.2
$ 455.9
$ 479.0
$ 500.0
$ 519.2
$ 536.4
$ 551.7
$ 565.9
$ 579.3
$ 585.4
$ 595.6
$ 7,755.8
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 359.3
$ 930.1
$ 1,680.7
$ 2,603.4
$ 3,407.0
$ 4,164.7
$ 4,847.7
$ 5,472.6
$ 6,023.4
$ 6,502.2
$ 6,912.3
$ 7,271.2
$ 7,604.4
$ 7,896.7
$ 8,165.5
$ 8,411.4
$ 8,647.4
$ 8,875.8
$ 8,956.5
$ 9,133.9
$ 117,866.1
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 149.7
$ 354.2
$ 603.3
$ 891.9
$ 1,092.7
$ 1,265.9
$ 1,413.6
$ 1,549.5
$ 1,676.7
$ 1,797.2
$ 1,912.2
$ 2,022.5
$ 2,128.6
$ 2,231.2
$ 2,330.6
$ 2,427.1
$ 2,521.1
$ 2,612.7
$ 2,667.2
$ 2,747.0
$ 34,394.6
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 22.9
$ 54.2
$ 92.3
$ 136.5
$ 167.0
$ 193.6
$ 215.9
$ 236.6
$ 255.7
$ 273.8
$ 291.2
$ 307.6
$ 323.7
$ 339.4
$ 354.3
$ 368.4
$ 382.2
$ 395.6
$ 404.2
$ 415.7
$ 5,230.7
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 344.1
$ 814.7
$ 1,385.9
$ 2,048.6
$ 2,511.8
$ 2,911.3
$ 3,250.8
$ 3,566.7
$ 3,862.8
$ 4,147.5
$ 4,414.8
$ 4,669.6
$ 4,923.1
$ 5,161.6
$ 5,393.6
$ 5,617.3
$ 5,839.7
$ 6,061.3
$ 6,184.2
$ 6,375.3
$ 79,484.7
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 294.7
$ 720.5
$ 1,242.6
$ 1,841.3
$ 2,259.5
$ 2,591.2
$ 2,845.2
$ 3,053.3
$ 3,228.2
$ 3,378.1
$ 3,508.8
$ 3,624.4
$ 3,728.2
$ 3,822.5
$ 3,909.2
$ 3,989.7
$ 4,065.3
$ 4,136.9
$ 4,150.7
$ 4,205.3
$ 60,595.5
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 45.1
$ 110.3
$ 190.2
$ 281.8
$ 345.4
$ 396.2
$ 434.6
$ 466.2
$ 492.2
$ 514.6
$ 534.3
$ 551.3
$ 566.9
$ 581.4
$ 594.3
$ 605.6
$ 616.2
$ 626.4
$ 629.0
$ 636.4
$ 9,218.4
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 677.4
$ 1,657.1
$ 2,854.5
$ 4,229.3
$ 5,194.1
$ 5,959.2
$ 6,543.2
$ 7,028.4
$ 7,437.2
$ 7,795.6
$ 8,100.8
$ 8,368.4
$ 8,622.5
$ 8,842.8
$ 9,046.7
$ 9,233.7
$ 9,416.8
$ 9,597.3
$ 9,624.0
$ 9,760.0
$ 139,989.3
 Notes:  All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
        Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
 Source: Derived from Exhibits F.4a and F.4b.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
      Exhibit F.4d  Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 3%
                                                        Discount Rate
                                                     (All Water Systems)

  HAAS - Preferred Alternative

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Ann.
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 134.8
$ 338.7
$ 594.9
$ 894.7
$ 1,135.9
$ 1,347.5
$ 1,522.8
$ 1,667.5
$ 1,780.4
$ 1,862.8
$ 1,921.7
$ 1,962.5
$ 1,989.3
$ 2,005.1
$ 2,012.2
$ 2,012.3
$ 2,006.8
$ 1,996.7
$ 1,957.3
$ 1,936.0
$ 31,079.6
$ 1,784.8
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tlle)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 20.6
$ 51.9
$ 91.0
$ 137.0
$ 173.7
$ 206.0
$ 232.6
$ 254.6
$ 271.5
$ 283.8
$ 292.6
$ 298.5
$ 302.5
$ 305.0
$ 305.9
$ 305.4
$ 304.2
$ 302.3
$ 296.6
$ 293.0
$ 4,728.6
$ 271.6
Upper
(95th %tlle)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 310.0
$ 779.0
$ 1,366.6
$ 2,055.2
$ 2,611.1
$ 3,098.9
$ 3,502.1
$ 3,838.4
$ 4,101.6
$ 4,298.7
$ 4,436.7
$ 4,531.2
$ 4,600.8
$ 4,638.5
$ 4,656.7
$ 4,657.2
$ 4,648.4
$ 4,632.2
$ 4,538.2
$ 4,493.3
$ 71 ,794.6
$ 4,123.0
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 129.1
$ 296.6
$ 490.5
$ 704.1
$ 837.4
$ 941.9
$ 1,021.2
$ 1,086.8
$ 1,141.8
$ 1,188.2
$ 1,227.4
$ 1,260.3
$ 1,287.9
$ 1,310.6
$ 1,329.1
$ 1,343.8
$ 1,355.2
$ 1,363.5
$ 1,351.4
$ 1,351.3
$ 21,018.2
$ 1,207.0
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tlle)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 19.8
$ 45.4
$ 75.1
$ 107.8
$ 128.0
$ 144.0
$ 156.0
$ 165.9
$ 174.1
$ 181.0
$ 186.9
$ 191.7
$ 195.8
$ 199.3
$ 202.0
$ 204.0
$ 205.4
$ 206.5
$ 204.8
$ 204.5
$ 3,198.1
$ 183.7
Upper
(95th %tlle)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 296.8
$ 682.3
$ 1,126.8
$ 1,617.2
$ 1,925.1
$ 2,166.3
$ 2,348.5
$ 2,501.6
$ 2,630.4
$ 2,742.0
$ 2,833.7
$ 2,910.0
$ 2,978.5
$ 3,031.9
$ 3,075.9
$ 3,110.2
$ 3,139.2
$ 3,163.3
$ 3,133.5
$ 3,136.2
$ 48,549.3
$ 2,788.1
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 254.2
$ 603.4
$ 1,010.3
$ 1,453.5
$ 1,731.7
$ 1,928.1
$ 2,055.4
$ 2,141.5
$ 2,198.2
$ 2,233.3
$ 2,252.2
$ 2,258.6
$ 2,255.6
$ 2,245.3
$ 2,229.3
$ 2,209.0
$ 2,185.3
$ 2,159.0
$ 2,103.1
$ 2,068.7
$ 37,576.0
$ 2,157.9
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tlle)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 38.9
$ 92.4
$ 154.6
$ 222.5
$ 264.7
$ 294.8
$ 314.0
$ 327.0
$ 335.2
$ 340.2
$ 342.9
$ 343.5
$ 343.0
$ 341.5
$ 338.9
$ 335.3
$ 331.3
$ 326.9
$ 318.7
$ 313.1
$ 5,719.4
$ 328.5
Upper
(95th %tlle)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 584.3
$ 1,387.8
$ 2,321.0
$ 3,338.7
$ 3,980.9
$ 4,434.2
$ 4,726.9
$ 4,929.6
$ 5,064.4
$ 5,153.8
$ 5,199.6
$ 5,214.9
$ 5,216.8
$ 5,194.2
$ 5,159.2
$ 5,112.5
$ 5,062.0
$ 5,008.8
$ 4,876.4
$ 4,801.3
$ 86,767.3
$ 4,982.9
  Notes:     Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005.
           Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate.
           Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
  Source:    Derived from Exhibit F.4c.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
     Exhibit F.4e  Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal
                                         Cases, at 7% Discount Rate
                                             (All Water Systems)

 HAAS - Preferred Alternative
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Ann.
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 111.5
$ 269.5
$ 455.6
$ 659.7
$ 806.1
$ 920.6
$ 1,001.5
$ 1,055.6
$ 1,084.9
$ 1,092.7
$ 1,085.2
$ 1,066.7
$ 1,040.9
$ 1,009.9
$ 975.6
$ 939.2
$ 901.6
$ 863.6
$ 814.8
$ 775.9
$ 16,931.0
$ 1,452.9
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 17.1
$ 41.3
$ 69.7
$ 101.0
$ 123.2
$ 140.8
$ 153.0
$ 161.2
$ 165.4
$ 166.5
$ 165.2
$ 162.2
$ 158.3
$ 153.6
$ 148.3
$ 142.6
$ 136.7
$ 130.7
$ 123.5
$ 117.4
$ 2,577.6
$ 221.2
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 256.2
$ 619.8
$ 1,046.7
$ 1,515.2
$ 1,853.2
$ 2,117.1
$ 2,303.1
$ 2,429.9
$ 2,499.5
$ 2,521.6
$ 2,505.3
$ 2,463.0
$ 2,407.3
$ 2,336.4
$ 2,257.8
$ 2,173.7
$ 2,088.5
$ 2,003.4
$ 1,889.3
$ 1,800.7
$ 39,087.7
$ 3,354.1
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 106.7
$ 236.0
$ 375.7
$ 519.1
$ 594.3
$ 643.5
$ 671.6
$ 688.0
$ 695.8
$ 697.0
$ 693.1
$ 685.1
$ 673.9
$ 660.1
$ 644.4
$ 627.2
$ 608.9
$ 589.7
$ 562.6
$ 541.6
$ 11,514.3
$ 988.0
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 16.3
$ 36.1
$ 57.5
$ 79.5
$ 90.9
$ 98.4
$ 102.6
$ 105.1
$ 106.1
$ 106.2
$ 105.5
$ 104.2
$ 102.5
$ 100.4
$ 98.0
$ 95.2
$ 92.3
$ 89.3
$ 85.3
$ 82.0
$ 1,753.2
$ 150.4
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 245.3
$ 542.8
$ 863.0
$ 1,192.3
$ 1,366.3
$ 1,479.9
$ 1,544.4
$ 1,583.6
$ 1,602.9
$ 1,608.5
$ 1,600.1
$ 1,581.8
$ 1,558.5
$ 1,527.1
$ 1,491.4
$ 1,451.6
$ 1,410.4
$ 1,368.1
$ 1,304.5
$ 1,256.9
$ 26,579.7
$ 2,280.8
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 210.1
$ 480.1
$ 773.8
$ 1,071.6
$ 1,229.0
$ 1,317.2
$ 1,351.7
$ 1,355.7
$ 1,339.6
$ 1,310.1
$ 1,271.7
$ 1,227.7
$ 1,180.2
$ 1,130.9
$ 1,080.9
$ 1,031.0
$ 981.8
$ 933.7
$ 875.6
$ 829.1
$ 20,981.8
$ 1,800.5
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 32.2
$ 73.5
$ 118.4
$ 164.0
$ 187.9
$ 201.4
$ 206.5
$ 207.0
$ 204.3
$ 199.6
$ 193.6
$ 186.7
$ 179.5
$ 172.0
$ 164.3
$ 156.5
$ 148.8
$ 141.4
$ 132.7
$ 125.5
$ 3,195.8
$ 274.2
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 483.0
$ 1,104.2
$ 1,777.7
$ 2,461.5
$ 2,825.3
$ 3,029.4
$ 3,108.6
$ 3,120.7
$ 3,086.2
$ 3,023.3
$ 2,936.1
$ 2,834.7
$ 2,729.7
$ 2,616.3
$ 2,501.5
$ 2,386.2
$ 2,274.3
$ 2,166.2
$ 2,030.2
$ 1,924.1
$ 48,419.0
$ 4,154.9
 Notes:    Present values in millions of 2003 dollars.  Estimates are discounted to 2005.
          Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate.
          Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
 Source:   Derived from Exhibit F.4c.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
                         Exhibit F.4f Mean Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 3% Discount Rate, by System Size
                                                                                             (All Systems)
HAAS - Preferred Alternative
Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
Total
<100
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ 00
$ 02
$ 03
$ 04
$ 05
$ 06
$ 07
$ 07
$ 08
$ OS
$ 08
$ OS
$ 08
$ 09
$ 09
$ 09
$ 09
$ OS
$ 12.7
100-499
$ -

$ -
$ 03
$ 1 5
$ 22
$ 30
$ 39
$ 46
$ 5 1
$ 55
$ 59
$ 62
$ 63
$ 65
$ 65
$ 66
$ 66
$ 66
$ 66
$ 65
$ 97.6
500-999
$ -

$ -
$ 04
$ 1 8
$ 26
$ 36
$ 47
$ 55
$ 62
$ 67
$ 7 1
$ 74
$ 76
$ 78
$ 79
$ 80
$ 80
$ 80
$ 80
$ 78
$ 117.8
1 ,OX-3,299
$

$
$ 1 6
$ 7 1
$ 107
$ 147
$ 19 1
$ 223
$ 249
$ 270
$ 287
$ 300
$ 309
$ 31 5
$ 320
$ 322
$ 323
$ 323
$ 322
$ 31 6
$ 476.5
3,300-9,999
$

$
$ 35
$ 155
$ 233
$ 322
$ 41 8
$ 488
$ 546
$ 592
$ 630
$ 658
$ 678
$ 69 1
$ 700
$ 706
$ 708
$ 708
$ 706
$ 693
$ 1,044.1
10,XO-
49,999
$

$
$ 157
$ 693
$ 1042
$ 1438
$ 1802
$ 2084
$ 231 7
$ 2508
$ 2658
$ 2767
$ 2844
$ 2896
$ 2929
$ 2947
$ 2954
$ 295 1
$ 2940
$ 2885
S 4,406.3
50,XO-
99,999
$

$
$ 128
$ 564
$ 848
$ 111 1
$ 131 8
$ 1492
$ 1637
$ 1752
$ 1837
$ 1896
$ 1938
$ 1965
$ 198 1
$ 1989
$ 1990
$ 1984
$ 1975
$ 1936
$ 3,057.7
100,OX-
$

$
$ 552
$ 2432
$ 3659
$ 4539
$ 5298
$ 5945
$ 6478
$ 6887
$ 7176
$ 7380
$ 752 1
$ 761 2
$ 7663
$ 7683
$ 7678
$ 7652
$ 761 0
$ 7457
$ 11,998.0
>1 ,XO,XO
$

$
$ 454
$ 2000
$ 3008
$ 3732
$ 4357
$ 4889
$ 5329
$ 5665
$ 5903
$ 607 1
$ 6187
$ 6262
$ 6304
$ 6320
$ 631 6
$ 6295
$ 6260
$ 6134
S 9,869.0
Total
$

$
$ 1348
$ 5949
$ 8947
$ 1,1359
$ 1,3475
$ 1,5228
$ 1,6675
$ 1,7804
$ 1,8628
$ 1,921 7
$ 1,9625
$ 1,9893
$ 2,005 1
$ 2,0122
$ 2,0123
$ 2,0068
$ 1,9967
$ 1,9573
$31,079.6
Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model
<1X
$ -

$ -
$ 00
$ 0 1
$ 02
$ 03
$ 03
$ 04
$ 04
$ 05
$ 05
$ 05
$ 05
$ 05
$ 05
$ 06
$ 06
$ 06
$ 06
$ 06
$ 8.3
100499
$

$
$ 03
$ 1 1
$ 1 6
$ 2 1
$ 27
$ 30
$ 32
$ 35
$ 37
$ 38
$ 40
$ 4 1
$ 42
$ 43
$ 43
$ 44
$ 44
$ 44
S 64.1
500-999
$

$
$ 03
$ 1 3
$ 1 9
$ 25
$ 32
$ 36
$ 39
$ 42
$ 44
$ 46
$ 48
$ 49
$ 5 1
$ 52
$ 52
$ 53
$ 54
$ 53
$ 77.4
1,XO-3,299
$

$
$ 1 4
$ 53
$ 77
$ 102
$ 129
$ 145
$ 159
$ 170
$ 179
$ 187
$ 194
$ 200
$ 204
$ 209
$ 21 2
$ 21 5
$ 21 7
$ 21 6
$ 312.8
3,300-
9,999
$

$
$ 30
$ 116
$ 168
$ 224
$ 283
$ 31 9
$ 348
$ 372
$ 392
$ 41 0
$ 425
$ 437
$ 448
$ 457
$ 464
$ 470
$ 475
$ 473
S 685.5
10,XO-
49,999
$

$
$ 150
$ 569
$ 81 7
$ 1082
$ 1294
$ 1428
$ 1537
$ 1628
$ 1704
$ 1768
$ 1822
$ 1867
$ 1905
$ 1936
$ 196 1
$ 1980
$ 1995
$ 1980
$ 2,974.9
50,XO-
99,999
$

$
$ 123
$ 466
$ 668
$ 829
$ 927
$ 1006
$ 1072
$ 1127
$ 1173
$ 121 2
$ 1245
$ 1272
$ 1295
$ 131 3
$ 1328
$ 1339
$ 1348
$ 1336
$ 2,069.8
100,OX-
$

$
$ 53 1
$ 201 4
$ 2890
$ 3337
$ 3686
$ 397 1
$ 4209
$ 4409
$ 4578
$ 472 1
$ 484 1
$ 4940
$ 5022
$ 5089
$ 514 1
$ 518 1
$ 521 0
$ 516 1
$ 8,130.9
>1 ,XO,XO
$

$
$ 438
$ 1662
$ 2384
$ 275 1
$ 3038
$ 3272
$ 3467
$ 363 1
$ 3770
$ 3887
$ 3985
$ 4066
$ 4133
$ 4188
$ 4230
$ 4263
$ 4286
$ 4246
S 6,694.5
Total
$

$
$ 129 1
$ 4905
$ 704 1
$ 8374
$ 941 9
$ 1,021 2
$ 1,0868
$ 1,141 8
$ 1,1882
$ 1,2274
$ 1,2603
$ 1,2879
$ 1,3106
$ 1,3291
$ 1,3438
$ 1,3552
$ 1,3635
$ 1,3514
$21,018.2
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model
<1X
$ -

$ -
$ 0 1
$ 03
$ 04
$ 06
$ 07
$ 08
$ 09
$ 09
$ 1 0
$ 1 0
$ 1 0
$ 1 0
$ 1 0
$ 1 0
$ 1 0
$ 1 0
$ 09
$ 09
$ 15.5
100499
$

$
$ 06
$ 24
$ 34
$ 46
$ 57
$ 64
$ 68
$ 7 1
$ 73
$ 74
$ 75
$ 75
$ 75
$ 75
$ 74
$ 74
$ 73
$ 7 1
$ 119.4
500-999
$

$
$ 07
$ 29
$ 42
$ 55
$ 69
$ 77
$ 82
$ 86
$ 88
$ 90
$ 9 1
$ 9 1
$ 9 1
$ 90
$ 90
$ 89
$ 88
« 86
$ 144.1
1,XO-3,299
$

$
$ 29
$ 116
$ 168
$ 223
$ 280
$ 31 2
$ 334
$ 348
$ 358
$ 364
$ 367
$ 368
$ 367
$ 365
$ 362
$ 359
$ 355
$ 346
S 582.9
3,300-
9,999
$

$
$ 63
$ 255
$ 369
$ 489
$ 614
$ 684
$ 73 1
$ 763
$ 784
$ 797
$ 803
$ 806
$ 804
$ 800
$ 794
$ 786
$ 778
$ 758
$ 1,277.2
10,XO-
49,999
$

$
$ 295
$ 1175
$ 169 1
$ 2232
$ 2654
$ 2899
$ 3065
$ 3175
$ 3247
$ 3290
$ 331 1
$ 331 5
$ 3306
$ 3288
$ 3262
$ 3230
$ 3193
$ 311 3
$ 5,350.5
50,XO-
99,999
$

$
$ 24 1
$ 958
$ 1378
$ 1707
$ 1897
$ 2025
$ 112
$ 169
$ 205
$ 225
$ 232
$ 229
$ 21 9
$ 204
$ 184
$ 16 1
$ 135
$ 080
$ 3,698.1
100,OX-
$

$
$ 1042
$ 4138
$ 595 1
$ 6890
$ 751 8
$ 7948
$ 8239
$ 8429
$ 8544
$ 860 1
$ 861 5
$ 8596
$ 8550
$ 8485
$ 8404
$ 831 1
$ 8209
$ 7995
$ 14,480.2
>1 ,XO,XO
$

$
$ 859
$ 2036
$ 3406
$ 4898
$ 5668
$ 6184
$ 6537
$ 6775
$ 693 1
$ 7025
$ 7072
$ 7083
$ 7067
$ 7030
$ 6976
$ 691 0
$ 6834
$ 6750
$ 6574
$11,908.1
Total
$

$
$ 2542
$ 6034
$ 1,0103
$ 1,4535
$ 1,7317
$ 1 ,928 1
$ 2,0554
$ 2,141 5
$ 2,1982
$ 2,2333
$ 2,2522
$ 2,2586
$ 2,2556
$ 2,2453
$ 2,2293
$ 2,2090
$ 2,1853
$ 2,1590
$ 2,1031
$ 37,576.0
               ues in millions of 2003 dollars Estimates are discounted to 20
               le of total annualized at discount rate
       Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding
       Derived from Exhibits F 1f, E 39b, E 39c, E 39f, E 39g, E 39j, and E 39k
        Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 December 2005

-------
                             Exhibit F.4g Mean Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 7% Discount Rate, by System Size
                                                                                                 (All Systems)
HAAS - Preferred Alternative
Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2011
2013
2014
2015
2017
2018
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Ann.
<1X
$ -

$ -


$ 02
$ 03
$ 04
$ 04
$

$
$ 04
$
$
$
$ 03
$ 03
S 6.8
100-499
$

$
$

$ 1 6
$ 27
$ 32
$ 34
$
$
$
$ 33
$
$
$
$ 27
$ 26
$ 52.5
500-999
$

$
$

$ 1 9
$ 32
$ 39
$ 41
$


$ 40
$
$
$
$ 33
$ 31
S 63.4
1,XO-3,299
$

$
$

$ 79
$ 130
$ 158
$ 165
$
$
$
$ 16 1
$
$
$
$ 132
$ 126
$ 256.2
3,3X-9,999
$

$


$ 172
$ 286
$ 345
$ 361
$
$
$
$ 353
$
$
$
$ 289
$ 275
S 561.4
10,XO-
49,999
$

$
$

$ 768
$ 123 1
$ 1467
$ 1528
$
$
$
$ 1475
$
$
$
$ 120 1
S 1145
$ 2,376.9
50,000-99,999
$
$
$
$
$
$

$ 625
$ 900
$ 1036
$ 1068
$
$
$
$ 998
$
$
$
$ 806
$ 768
$ 1 ,663.2
100,OX-
999,999
$
$

$

« 2,97
$ 3620
$ 410 1
$ 4197
$
$
$
$ 3860

$
$
$ 3104
$ 2955
$ 6,557.2
>1 ,XO,XO
$
$

$

$ 221 8
$ 2976
$ 3373
$ 3452
$
$
$
$ 3175
$
$
$
$ 2554
$ 2431
$ 5,393.5
Total
$
$

$

$ 6597
$ 9206
$ 1,0556
$ 1,0849
$ ,
$ ,
$ ,
$ 1,0099
$
$
$
$ 8148
$ 7759
$16,931.0
Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model
<100
$ -
$ -



$ 02
$ 02
$ 03
$ 03



$ 03



$ 02
S 4.5
100499
$
$



$ 1 2
$ 1 8
$ 1
$ 1



$ 1
$


$ 1 8
$ 1 8
S 34.5
500-999
$
$

$

$ 1 4
$ 22
$ 25
$ 26
$
$
$
$ 25
$
$
$
$ 22
$ 21
S 41.6
1 ,OX-3,299
$
$

$

$ 57
$ 88
$ 100
$ 103
$
$
$
$ 103
$
$
$
$ 90
$ 87
S 168.4
3,300-9,999
$
$

$

$ 124
$ 194
$ 20
$ 26
$
$
$
$ 26
$
$
$
$ 197
$ 190
S 369.0
10,XO-
49,999
$
$

$

$ 602
$ 884
$ 973
$ 992
$
$
$
$ 959
$
$
$
$ 824
$ 794
$ 1,614.2
50,000-99,999
$
$

$

$ 493
$ 634
$ 679
$ 687
$
$
$
$ 652
$
$
$
$ 556
$ 535
$ 1,132.4
100,OX-
999,999
$
$
$
$

$ 213 1
$ 251 8
$ 2665
$ 2687
$
$
$
$ 2530
$
$
$
$ 2149
$ 2067
S 4,469.3
>1 ,XO,XO
$
$
$
$

$ 1758
$ 2075
$ 2195
$ 221 3
$
$
$
$ 2082
$
$
$
$ 1768
$ 1700
$ 3,680.3
Total
$
$
$
$

$ 519 1
$ 6435
« 6880
$ 6958
$
$
$
$ 660 1
$

$
$ 5626
$ 541 6
$11,514.3
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model
<1X





$

$ 03
$ 05
$ 06
$ 06
$


$ 05



$ 04
S 8.5
100499





$

$ 25
$ 39
$ 43
$ 43
$

$
$ 38
$
$
$
$ 29
$ 28
S 65.6
500-999





$

$ 3 1
$ 47
$ 52


$
$
$ 46
$

$
$ 36
S 34
$ 79.2
1,XO-3,299





$

$ 124
$ 19 1
$ 21 1
$ 21 2
$
$
$
$ 185
$
$
$
$ 144
$ 136
$ 320.2
3,300-
9,999





$

$ 272
$ 41 9
$ 463
$ 465
$
$
$
$ 405
$
$
$
$ 31 5
$ 299
$ 701.8
10,XO-
49,999





$

$ 1246
$ 181 3
$ 1940
$ 1935
$
$
$
$ 1665
$
$
$
$ 1296
$ 1228
$ 2,956.1
50,XO-
99,999





$

$ 101 6
$ 1296
$ 1337
$ 1322
$
$
$
$ 111 8
$
$
$
$ 820
$ 2,061.8
100,OX-
999,999





$

$ 4388
$ 5136
$ 521 6
$ 5137
$
$
$
$ 4307
$
$
$
$ 3329
$ 3151
$ 8,114.8
>1 ,XO,XO
$
$
$
$
$ 2609
$ 361 1
$ 4225
$ 4289
$ 4224
$ 412 1
$
$ 3698
$ 354 1
$
$
$
$ 2737
$ 6,673.7
Total
$
$
$
$
$ 7738
$ 1,0716
$ 1,3172
$ 1,3557
$ 1,3396
$ 1,3101
$ ,
$ 1,1802
$ 1,1309
$ ,
$ ,
$
$ 8756
$ 8291
$ 20,981 .8
                  n millions of 2003 dollars  Estimates are discoi.
                  total annualized at discount rate
                  idd exactly to totals due to independent roundim
                  (hibits F 1f, E 39b, E 39c, E 39f, E 39g, E 39j, e
             Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  December 2005

-------
            Section F.5
Model Outputs - Preferred Alternative
         HAAS as Indicator
   Bronchitis for Non-Fatal Cases

-------

-------
               Exhibit F.5a Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                                               (All Surface Water Systems)
 HAAS - Preferred Alternative
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 72.5
$ 187.6
$ 339.6
$ 526.6
$ 687.0
$ 837.8
$ 975.0
$ 1,099.8
$ 1,209.7
$ 1,304.0
$ 1,386.2
$ 1,458.7
$ 1,523.9
$ 1,583.1
$ 1,637.5
$ 1,687.9
$ 1,735.1
$ 1,779.6
$ 1,796.1
$ 1,831.0
$ 23,658.9
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 16.0
$ 41.3
$ 74.6
$ 115.6
$ 150.6
$ 183.3
$ 213.1
$ 240.1
$ 263.4
$ 283.5
$ 300.9
$ 316.2
$ 329.7
$ 341.6
$ 353.0
$ 363.1
$ 372.8
$ 381.7
$ 385.4
$ 392.4
$ 5,118.1
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 159.4
$ 413.2
$ 747.6
$ 1,158.5
$ 1,512.4
$ 1,847.4
$ 2,149.3
$ 2,428.9
$ 2,672.7
$ 2,887.6
$ 3,071.9
$ 3,236.7
$ 3,388.0
$ 3,520.0
$ 3,642.8
$ 3,757.3
$ 3,863.5
$ 3,972.5
$ 4,005.7
$ 4,090.8
$ 52,526.2
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 69.9
$ 165.4
$ 281.7
$ 416.7
$ 508.7
$ 587.6
$ 655.6
$ 718.4
$ 777.4
$ 833.4
$ 886.9
$ 938.4
$ 988.0
$ 1,036.1
$ 1,082.8
$ 1,128.3
$ 1,172.7
$ 1,216.1
$ 1,240.8
$ 1,278.6
$ 15,983.6
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 15.4
$ 36.4
$ 61.9
$ 91.5
$ 111.5
$ 128.5
$ 143.3
$ 156.8
$ 169.3
$ 181.2
$ 192.5
$ 203.4
$ 213.8
$ 223.6
$ 233.4
$ 242.7
$ 252.0
$ 260.8
$ 266.3
$ 274.0
$ 3,458.2
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 153.7
$ 364.3
$ 620.2
$ 916.7
$ 1,119.9
$ 1,295.6
$ 1,445.3
$ 1,586.7
$ 1,717.5
$ 1,845.4
$ 1,965.5
$ 2,082.0
$ 2,196.6
$ 2,303.8
$ 2,408.9
$ 2,511.6
$ 2,611.2
$ 2,714.6
$ 2,767.3
$ 2,856.5
$ 35,483.4
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 137.1
$ 335.2
$ 578.1
$ 856.9
$ 1,048.0
$ 1,198.0
$ 1,314.2
$ 1,409.9
$ 1,490.7
$ 1,560.4
$ 1,621.6
$ 1,676.0
$ 1,725.2
$ 1,770.1
$ 1,811.6
$ 1,850.5
$ 1,887.1
$ 1,922.0
$ 1,927.8
$ 1,954.5
$ 28,074.7
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 30.2
$ 73.7
$ 127.0
$ 188.1
$ 229.7
$ 262.1
$ 287.2
$ 307.8
$ 324.6
$ 339.2
$ 352.0
$ 363.3
$ 373.2
$ 381.9
$ 390.5
$ 398.1
$ 405.4
$ 412.2
$ 413.7
$ 418.9
$ 6,078.8
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 301.5
$ 738.3
$ 1,272.5
$ 1,885.4
$ 2,307.1
$ 2,641.6
$ 2,897.1
$ 3,113.7
$ 3,293.4
$ 3,455.4
$ 3,593.6
$ 3,718.8
$ 3,835.4
$ 3,935.7
$ 4,030.1
$ 4,119.1
$ 4,201.9
$ 4,290.3
$ 4,299.4
$ 4,366.5
$ 62,296.7
 Notes:   All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
        Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
 Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.39b, E.39f, and E.39J.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
       Exhibit F.5b  Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                                       (All Ground Water Systems)

     HAAS - Preferred Alternative

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 4.7
$ 12.3
$ 22.3
$ 34.5
$ 47.2
$ 60.0
$ 70.9
$ 80.7
$ 89.5
$ 97.2
$ 104.0
$ 110.0
$ 115.3
$ 120.1
$ 124.5
$ 128.6
$ 132.4
$ 135.9
$ 137.3
$ 140.1
$ 1,767.7
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.0
$ 2.7
$ 4.9
$ 7.6
$ 10.3
$ 13.1
$ 15.5
$ 17.6
$ 19.5
$ 21.1
$ 22.6
$ 23.8
$ 24.9
$ 25.9
$ 26.8
$ 27.7
$ 28.4
$ 29.2
$ 29.5
$ 30.0
$ 382.3
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 10.4
$ 27.1
$ 49.1
$ 76.0
$ 103.9
$ 132.3
$ 156.3
$ 178.2
$ 197.7
$ 215.3
$ 230.5
$ 244.0
$ 256.3
$ 267.1
$ 277.0
$ 286.2
$ 294.8
$ 303.5
$ 306.3
$ 313.1
$ 3,925.1
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 4.0
$ 9.7
$ 16.7
$ 24.9
$ 32.6
$ 40.0
$ 45.7
$ 50.9
$ 55.8
$ 60.4
$ 64.9
$ 69.1
$ 73.2
$ 77.2
$ 81.0
$ 84.8
$ 88.4
$ 92.0
$ 94.2
$ 97.3
$1,162.9
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.9
$ 2.1
$ 3.7
$ 5.5
$ 7.1
$ 8.8
$ 10.0
$ 11.1
$ 12.2
$ 13.1
$ 14.1
$ 15.0
$ 15.8
$ 16.7
$ 17.5
$ 18.2
$ 19.0
$ 19.7
$ 20.2
$ 20.9
$ 251.5
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 8.9
$ 21.3
$ 36.7
$ 54.7
$ 71.7
$ 88.3
$ 100.8
$ 112.5
$ 123.3
$ 133.8
$ 143.7
$ 153.3
$ 162.8
$ 171.6
$ 180.3
$ 188.7
$ 196.9
$ 205.4
$ 210.0
$ 217.3
$ 2,582.1
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 8.4
$ 21.0
$ 36.6
$ 54.6
$ 71.3
$ 86.7
$ 97.5
$ 106.2
$ 113.5
$ 119.6
$ 124.8
$ 129.4
$ 133.5
$ 137.2
$ 140.6
$ 143.7
$ 146.6
$ 149.3
$ 149.8
$ 151.8
$2,122.1
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.9
$ 4.6
$ 8.0
$ 12.0
$ 15.6
$ 19.0
$ 21.3
$ 23.2
$ 24.7
$ 26.0
$ 27.1
$ 28.1
$ 28.9
$ 29.6
$ 30.3
$ 30.9
$ 31.5
$ 32.0
$ 32.1
$ 32.5
$ 459.3
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 18.6
$ 46.2
$ 80.5
$ 120.1
$ 157.0
$ 191.1
$ 215.0
$ 234.6
$ 250.7
$ 264.8
$ 276.7
$ 287.2
$ 296.9
$ 305.1
$ 312.7
$ 319.8
$ 326.3
$ 333.3
$ 334.0
$ 339.2
$ 4,709.7
     Notes:   All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
            Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
     Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.39c, E.39g, and E.39k.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
                Exhibit F.5c  Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                                                    (All Water Systems)
 HAAS - Preferred Alternative
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 156.3
$ 404.4
$ 731.6
$ 1,133.4
$ 1,482.1
$ 1,810.9
$ 2,107.9
$ 2,377.4
$ 2,614.5
$ 2,817.6
$ 2,994.0
$ 3,149.2
$ 3,288.0
$ 3,413.5
$ 3,528.4
$ 3,634.4
$ 3,733.2
$ 3,825.9
$ 3,862.8
$ 3,935.6
$ 51,001.0
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 23.9
$ 61.9
$ 112.0
$ 173.5
$ 226.6
$ 276.9
$ 322.0
$ 363.0
$ 398.7
$ 429.2
$ 455.9
$ 479.0
$ 500.0
$ 519.2
$ 536.4
$ 551.7
$ 565.9
$ 579.3
$ 585.4
$ 595.6
$ 7,755.8
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 359.3
$ 930.1
$ 1,680.7
$ 2,603.4
$ 3,407.0
$ 4,164.7
$ 4,847.7
$ 5,472.6
$ 6,023.4
$ 6,502.2
$ 6,912.3
$ 7,271.2
$ 7,604.4
$ 7,896.7
$ 8,165.5
$ 8,411.4
$ 8,647.4
$ 8,875.8
$ 8,956.5
$ 9,133.9
$ 117,866.1
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 149.7
$ 354.2
$ 603.3
$ 891.9
$ 1,092.7
$ 1,265.9
$ 1,413.6
$ 1,549.5
$ 1,676.7
$ 1,797.2
$ 1,912.2
$ 2,022.5
$ 2,128.6
$ 2,231.2
$ 2,330.6
$ 2,427.1
$ 2,521.1
$ 2,612.7
$ 2,667.2
$ 2,747.0
$ 34,394.6
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 22.9
$ 54.2
$ 92.3
$ 136.5
$ 167.0
$ 193.6
$ 215.9
$ 236.6
$ 255.7
$ 273.8
$ 291.2
$ 307.6
$ 323.7
$ 339.4
$ 354.3
$ 368.4
$ 382.2
$ 395.6
$ 404.2
$ 415.7
$ 5,230.7
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 344.1
$ 814.7
$ 1,385.9
$ 2,048.6
$ 2,511.8
$ 2,911.3
$ 3,250.8
$ 3,566.7
$ 3,862.8
$ 4,147.5
$ 4,414.8
$ 4,669.6
$ 4,923.1
$ 5,161.6
$ 5,393.6
$ 5,617.3
$ 5,839.7
$ 6,061.3
$ 6,184.2
$ 6,375.3
$ 79,484.7
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 294.7
$ 720.5
$ 1,242.6
$ 1,841.3
$ 2,259.5
$ 2,591.2
$ 2,845.2
$ 3,053.3
$ 3,228.2
$ 3,378.1
$ 3,508.8
$ 3,624.4
$ 3,728.2
$ 3,822.5
$ 3,909.2
$ 3,989.7
$ 4,065.3
$ 4,136.9
$ 4,150.7
$ 4,205.3
$ 60,595.5
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 45.1
$ 110.3
$ 190.2
$ 281.8
$ 345.4
$ 396.2
$ 434.6
$ 466.2
$ 492.2
$ 514.6
$ 534.3
$ 551.3
$ 566.9
$ 581.4
$ 594.3
$ 605.6
$ 616.2
$ 626.4
$ 629.0
$ 636.4
$ 9,218.4
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 677.4
$ 1,657.1
$ 2,854.5
$ 4,229.3
$ 5,194.1
$ 5,959.2
$ 6,543.2
$ 7,028.4
$ 7,437.2
$ 7,795.6
$ 8,100.8
$ 8,368.4
$ 8,622.5
$ 8,842.8
$ 9,046.7
$ 9,233.7
$ 9,416.8
$ 9,597.3
$ 9,624.0
$ 9,760.0
$ 139,989.3
 Notes:  All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
        Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
 Source: Derived from Exhibits F.5a and F.5b.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
     Exhibit F.5d  Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 3%
                                                     (All Water Systems)

 HAAS - Preferred Alternative

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Ann.
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 134.8
$ 338.7
$ 594.9
$ 894.7
$ 1,135.9
$ 1,347.5
$ 1,522.8
$ 1,667.5
$ 1,780.4
$ 1,862.8
$ 1,921.7
$ 1,962.5
$ 1,989.3
$ 2,005.1
$ 2,012.2
$ 2,012.3
$ 2,006.8
$ 1,996.7
$ 1,957.3
$ 1,936.0
$ 31,079.6
$ 1,784.8
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 20.6
$ 51.9
$ 91.0
$ 137.0
$ 173.7
$ 206.0
$ 232.6
$ 254.6
$ 271.5
$ 283.8
$ 292.6
$ 298.5
$ 302.5
$ 305.0
$ 305.9
$ 305.4
$ 304.2
$ 302.3
$ 296.6
$ 293.0
$ 4,728.6
$ 271.6
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 310.0
$ 779.0
$ 1,366.6
$ 2,055.2
$ 2,611.1
$ 3,098.9
$ 3,502.1
$ 3,838.4
$ 4,101.6
$ 4,298.7
$ 4,436.7
$ 4,531.2
$ 4,600.8
$ 4,638.5
$ 4,656.7
$ 4,657.2
$ 4,648.4
$ 4,632.2
$ 4,538.2
$ 4,493.3
$ 71,794.6
$ 4,123.0
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 129.1
$ 296.6
$ 490.5
$ 704.1
$ 837.4
$ 941.9
$ 1,021.2
$ 1,086.8
$ 1,141.8
$ 1,188.2
$ 1,227.4
$ 1,260.3
$ 1,287.9
$ 1,310.6
$ 1,329.1
$ 1,343.8
$ 1,355.2
$ 1,363.5
$ 1,351.4
$ 1,351.3
$ 21,018.2
$ 1,207.0
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 19.8
$ 45.4
$ 75.1
$ 107.8
$ 128.0
$ 144.0
$ 156.0
$ 165.9
$ 174.1
$ 181.0
$ 186.9
$ 191.7
$ 195.8
$ 199.3
$ 202.0
$ 204.0
$ 205.4
$ 206.5
$ 204.8
$ 204.5
$ 3,198.1
$ 183.7
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 296.8
$ 682.3
$ 1,126.8
$ 1,617.2
$ 1,925.1
$ 2,166.3
$ 2,348.5
$ 2,501.6
$ 2,630.4
$ 2,742.0
$ 2,833.7
$ 2,910.0
$ 2,978.5
$ 3,031.9
$ 3,075.9
$ 3,110.2
$ 3,139.2
$ 3,163.3
$ 3,133.5
$ 3,136.2
$ 48,549.3
$ 2,788.1
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 254.2
$ 603.4
$ 1,010.3
$ 1,453.5
$ 1,731.7
$ 1,928.1
$ 2,055.4
$ 2,141.5
$ 2,198.2
$ 2,233.3
$ 2,252.2
$ 2,258.6
$ 2,255.6
$ 2,245.3
$ 2,229.3
$ 2,209.0
$ 2,185.3
$ 2,159.0
$ 2,103.1
$ 2,068.7
$ 37,576.0
$ 2,157.9
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 38.9
$ 92.4
$ 154.6
$ 222.5
$ 264.7
$ 294.8
$ 314.0
$ 327.0
$ 335.2
$ 340.2
$ 342.9
$ 343.5
$ 343.0
$ 341.5
$ 338.9
$ 335.3
$ 331.3
$ 326.9
$ 318.7
$ 313.1
$ 5,719.4
$ 328.5
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 584.3
$ 1,387.8
$ 2,321.0
$ 3,338.7
$ 3,980.9
$ 4,434.2
$ 4,726.9
$ 4,929.6
$ 5,064.4
$ 5,153.8
$ 5,199.6
$ 5,214.9
$ 5,216.8
$ 5,194.2
$ 5,159.2
$ 5,112.5
$ 5,062.0
$ 5,008.8
$ 4,876.4
$ 4,801.3
$ 86,767.3
$ 4,982.9
 Notes:     Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005.
           Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate.
           Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
 Source:    Derived from Exhibit F.5c.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
   Exhibit F.5e Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal
                                            (All Water Systems)

 HAAS - Preferred Alternative
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Ann.
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 111.5
$ 269.5
$ 455.6
$ 659.7
$ 806.1
$ 920.6
$ 1 ,001 .5
$ 1 ,055.6
$ 1 ,084.9
$ 1 ,092.7
$ 1 ,085.2
$ 1 ,066.7
$ 1 ,040.9
$ 1 ,009.9
$ 975.6
$ 939.2
$ 901 .6
$ 863.6
$ 814.8
$ 775.9
$ 16,931.0
$ 1,452.9
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 17.1
$ 41.3
$ 69.7
$ 101.0
$ 123.2
$ 140.8
$ 153.0
$ 161.2
$ 165.4
$ 166.5
$ 165.2
$ 162.2
$ 158.3
$ 153.6
$ 148.3
$ 142.6
$ 136.7
$ 130.7
$ 123.5
$ 117.4
$ 2,577.6
$ 221.2
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 256.2
$ 619.8
$ 1,046.7
$ 1,515.2
$ 1,853.2
$ 2,117.1
$ 2,303.1
$ 2,429.9
$ 2,499.5
$ 2,521.6
$ 2,505.3
$ 2,463.0
$ 2,407.3
$ 2,336.4
$ 2,257.8
$ 2,173.7
$ 2,088.5
$ 2,003.4
$ 1,889.3
$ 1,800.7
$ 39,087.7
$ 3,354.1
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 106.7
$ 236.0
$ 375.7
$ 519.1
$ 594.3
$ 643.5
$ 671.6
$ 688.0
$ 695.8
$ 697.0
$ 693.1
$ 685.1
$ 673.9
$ 660.1
$ 644.4
$ 627.2
$ 608.9
$ 589.7
$ 562.6
$ 541.6
$ 11,514.3
$ 988.0
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 16.3
$ 36.1
$ 57.5
$ 79.5
$ 90.9
$ 98.4
$ 102.6
$ 105.1
$ 106.1
$ 106.2
$ 105.5
$ 104.2
$ 102.5
$ 100.4
$ 98.0
$ 95.2
$ 92.3
$ 89.3
$ 85.3
$ 82.0
$ 1,753.2
$ 150.4
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 245.3
$ 542.8
$ 863.0
$ 1,192.3
$ 1 ,366.3
$ 1 ,479.9
$ 1 ,544.4
$ 1 ,583.6
$ 1 ,602.9
$ 1 ,608.5
$ 1,600.1
$ 1 ,581 .8
$ 1 ,558.5
$ 1,527.1
$ 1 ,491 .4
$ 1 ,451 .6
$ 1,410.4
$ 1,368.1
$ 1 ,304.5
$ 1 ,256.9
$ 26,579.7
$ 2,280.8
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 210.1
$ 480.1
$ 773.8
$ 1 ,071 .6
$ 1 ,229.0
$ 1,317.2
$ 1 ,351 .7
$ 1 ,355.7
$ 1 ,339.6
$ 1,310.1
$ 1 ,271 .7
$ 1 ,227.7
$ 1,180.2
$ 1,130.9
$ 1 ,080.9
$ 1 ,031 .0
$ 981 .8
$ 933.7
$ 875.6
$ 829.1
$ 20,981.8
$ 1,800.5
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 32.2
$ 73.5
$ 118.4
$ 164.0
$ 187.9
$ 201.4
$ 206.5
$ 207.0
$ 204.3
$ 199.6
$ 193.6
$ 186.7
$ 179.5
$ 172.0
$ 164.3
$ 156.5
$ 148.8
$ 141.4
$ 132.7
$ 125.5
$ 3,195.8
$ 274.2
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 483.0
$ 1,104.2
$ 1,777.7
$ 2,461.5
$ 2,825.3
$ 3,029.4
$ 3,108.6
$ 3,120.7
$ 3,086.2
$ 3,023.3
$ 2,936.1
$ 2,834.7
$ 2,729.7
$ 2,616.3
$ 2,501.5
$ 2,386.2
$ 2,274.3
$ 2,166.2
$ 2,030.2
$ 1,924.1
$ 48,419.0
$ 4,154.9
 Notes:     Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005.
           Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate.
           Detail may not add  exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
 Source:    Derived from Exhibit F.5c.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
                              Exhibit F.5f Mean Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 3% Discount Rate, by System Size
                                                                                                 (All Systems)
HAAS - Preferred Alternative
Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Ann.
<1X




$ 00
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 02
$ 03
$ 03
$ 03
$ 04
$ 04
$ 04
$ 04
$ 04
$ 04
S 6.3
100-499




$ 02
$ 04
$ 07
$ 1 1
$ 1 5
$ 1 9
$ 23
$ 25
$ 29
$ 32
$ 33
$ 33
$ 33
$ 32
$ 48.7
500-999




$ 02
$ 05
$ 09
$ 1 3
$ 1 8
$ 23
$ 27
$ 3 1
$ 35
$ 38
$ 39
$ 40
$ 40
$ 39
$ 58.7
1,XO-3,299




$ 08
$ 20
$ 35
$ 53
$ 73
$ 95
$ 11 1
$ 124
$ 143
$ 154
$ 159
$ 16 1
$ 16 1
$ 157
$ 237.5
3,3X-9,999




$ 1 7
$ 44
$ 77
$ 116
$ 159
$ 207
$ 242
$ 27 1
$ 31 3
$ 338
$ 349
$ 354
$ 353

S 520.4
10,XO-
49,999




$ 78
$ 195
$ 343
$ 51 6
$ 71 2
$ 893
$ 1034
$ 115 1
$ 1322
$ 141 7
$ 1462
$ 1476
$ 1472

$ 2,196.0
50,000-99,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 63
$ 159
$ 279
$ 420
$ 550
$ 653
$ 740
$ 81 3
$ 91 3
$ 965
$ 9S9
$ 994
$ 989
$ 959
$ 1 ,523.6
100,OX-
999,999
$
$
$
$ 272
$ 685
$ 1203
$ 181 1
$ 2249
$ 2627
$ 2950
$ 321 7
$ 3569
$ 3747
$ 3824
$ 3837
$ 381 0
$ 3693
$ 5,978.0
>1 ,XO,XO
$
$
$
$ 224
$ 563
$ 989
$ 1489
$ 1849
$ 2160
$ 2426
$ 2646
$ 2936
« 3082
$ 3146
$ 3157
$ 3134
$ 3038
$ 4,917.3
Total
$
$
$
$ 666
$ 1674
$ 2943
$ 4429
$ 5627
$ 6680
$ 7556
$ 8280
$ 9264
$ 9776
$ 1,0005
$ 1,0058
$ 9997
S 9697
S 15,486.5
Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model
<1X
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ 00
$ 00
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 02
$ 02
$ 02
$ 02
$ 03
$ 03
$ 03
$ 03
$ 03
$ 4.1
100-499
$
$
$
$ 0 1
$ 03
$ 05
$ 08
$ 1 0
$ 1 3
$ 1 5
$ 1 6
$ 1 8
$ 20
$ 2 1
$ 22
$ 22
$ 22
$ 31.9
500-999
$
$
$
$ 02
$ 04
$ 06
$ 09
$ 1 3
$ 1 6
$ 1 8
$ 1 9
$ 2
$ 4
$ 5
« 6
$ 7
$ 7
S 38.6
1,XO-3,299
$
$
$
$ 07
$ 1 6
$ 26
$ 38
$ 5 1
$ 64
$ 72
$ 79
$ 89
$ 97
$ 102
$ 106
$ 109
$ 108
S 155.9
3,3X-9,999
$
$
$
$ 1 5
$ 34
$ 57
$ 83
$ 11 1
$ 14 1
$ 158
$ 173
$ 195
$ 21 1
$ 224
$ 232
$ 238
$ 238
$ 341.7
10,XO-
49,999
$
$
$
$ 74
$ 170
$ 28 1
$ 404
$ 536
$ 64 1
$ 709
$ 763
$ 847
$ 908
$ 950
$ 980
$ 999
S 993
$ 1,482.5
50,000-99,999
$
$
$
$ 6 1
$ 139
$ 230
$ 33 1
$ 41 0
$ 460
$ 499
$ 532
$ 583
$ 620
$ 646
$ 664
$ 675
$ 669
$ 1 ,031 .3
100,OX-
$
$
$
$ 262
$ 602
$ 996
$ 143 1
$ 1653
$ 1827
$ 1970
$ 2090
« 2277
$ 241 1
$ 2506
$ 2570
$ 2609
$ 2583
S 4,050.8
>1 ,XO,XO
$
$
$
$ 21 6
$ 497
$ 822
$ 1180
$ 1363
$ 1506
$ 1623
$ 1722
$ 1875
$ 1985
$ 2062
$ 211 4
$ 2146
$ 2125
$ 3,335.2
Total
$
$
$
$ 638
$ 1466
$ 2426
$ 3485
$ 4149
$ 4670
$ 5067
$ 5396
$ 5909
$ 6278
$ 6539
$ 671 7
$ 6827
$ 6768
$ 10,472.1
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model
<100
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ 00
$ 0 1
$ 02
$ 02
$ 03
$ 04
$ 04
$ 04
$ 05
$ 05
$ 05
$ 05
$ 05

$ 7.7
100-499
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ 03
$ 07
$ 1 2
$ 1 7
$ 23
$ 28
$ 32
$ 34
$ 36
$ 37
$ 38
$ 37
$ 36

S 59.5
500-999
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ 03
$ 08
$ 1 4
$ 2 1
$ 27
$ 34
$ 38
$ 4 1
$ 44
$ 45
$ 45
$ 45
$ 44

$ 71.8
1 ,OX-3,299
$
$
$
$ 1 4
$ 34
$ 57
$ 83
$ 11 1
$ 139
$ 155
$ 166
$ 178
$ 183
$ 183
$ 18 1
$ 178

S 290.4
3,300-9,999
$
$
$
$ 3 1
$ 74
$ 126
$ 183
$ 242
$ 304
$ 339
$ 363
$ 390
$ 400
$ 40 1
$ 397
$ 389

S 636.3
10,XO-
49,999
$
$
$
$ 146
$ 347
$ 58 1
$ 837
$ 1106
$ 131 6
$ 1439
$ 1522
$ 161 5
$ 1649
$ 1650
$ 1630
$ 1599

$ 2,665.3
50,XO-
99,999
$
$
$
$ 119
$ 283
$ 474
$ 682
$ 846
$ 94 1
$ 1005
$ 1049
$ 1097
$ 111 2
$ 111 1
$ 1107
$ 1092
$ 1069

$ 1,841.9
100,OX-
999,999
$
$
$
$ 51 5
$ 1222
$ 2047
$ 2946
$ 341 3
$ 3727
$ 3944
$ 409 1
$ 4249
$ 4292
$ 4285
$ 4266
$ 420 1
$ 411 0
$ 393 8
$ 7,211.3
>1 ,XO,XO
$
$
$
$ 424
$ 1006
$ 1685
$ 2425
$ 2808
$ 3066
$ 3243
$ 3364
$ 3494
$ 3520
$ 3528
$ 3523
$ 3508
$ 3454
$ 3380

$ 5,930.3
Total
$
$
$
$ 1256
$ 2983
$ 4998
$ 7196
$ 8579
$ 9559
$ 1,0198
$ 1,0634
$ 1,1107
$ 1,1210
$ 1,1251
$ 1,1245
$ 1,1203
$ 1,1041
$ 1,0810
$ 1,0362
$ 18,714.6
                   n millions of 2003 dollars Estimates are discoi
                   total annualized at discount rate
                   idd exactly to totals due to independent roundiru
                   (hibits F 1f, E 39b, E 39c, E 39f, E 39g, E 39j, e
          Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   December 2005

-------
                            Exhibit F.5g Mean Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 7% Discount Rate, by System Size
                                                                                                 (All Systems)
HAAS - Preferred Alternative
Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2011
2012
2014
2015
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Ann.
<1X
$ -

$ -
$ 00
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 0
$ 0
$ 0
$ 0
$ 0
$ 0
$ 0
$ 0
$ 0
$ 0
$ 0
S 3.4
100-499
$

$
$ 03
$ 06
$ 1 1
$ 1 3
$ 1 6
$ 1 7
$ 1 7
$ 1 7
$ 1 7
$ 1 6
$ 1 6
$ 1 5
$ 1 4
$ 1 3
$ 26.1
500-999
$

$
$ 04
$ 07
$ 1 3
$ 1 6
$ 1 9
$ 20
$ 2 1
$ 2 1
$ 20
$ 20
$ 1 9
$ 1 9
$ 1 7
$ 1 6
$ 31.6
1,XO-3,299
$

$
$ 1 6
$ 27
$ 52
$ 65
$ 78
$ 82
$ 84
$ 84
$ 82
$ 80
$ 78
$ 75
$ 70
$ 63
$ 127.6
3,300-9,999
$

$
$ 35
$ 59
$ 113
$ 142
$ 172
$ 179
$ 184
$ 183
$ 180
$ 176
$ 17 1
$ 165
$ 153
$ 138
$ 279.6
10,XO-
49,999
$

$
$ 155
$ 262
$ 506
$ 61 0
$ 728
$ 759
$ 775
$ 770
$ 755
$ 736
$ 714
$ 689
$ 637
$ 573
$ 1,183.8
50,XO-
99,999
$

$
$ 126
$ 21 4
$ 39 1
$ 446
$ 51 5
$ 53 1
$ 536
$ 525
$ 51 3
$ 498
$ 482
$ 464
$ 428
$ 384
$ 828.2
100,OX-
999,999
$

$
$ 545
$ 922
$ 1596
$ 1794
$ 2036
$ 2085
$ 2093
$ 2036
$ 1986
$ 1926
$ 1860
$ 179 1
$ 1648
$ 1480
$ 3,264.8
>1 ,XO,XO
$

$
$ 448
$ 758
$ 131 2
$ 1476
$ 1675
$ 171 5
$ 1722
$ 1675
$ 1633
$ 1584
$ 1530
$ 1473
$ 1356
$ 121 7
S 2,685.4
Total
$

$
$ 1332
$ 2254
$ 3994
$ 4564
$ 5242
$ 539 1
$ 5434
$ 531 4
$ 5189
$ 5039
$ 4872
$ 4694
$ 4324
S 3886
S 8,430.4
Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model
<1X
$ -

$ -
$ 00
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 01
$ 2.2
100-499
$

$
$ 03
$ 04
$ 07
$ 09
$ 1 0
$ 1 1
$ 1 1
$ 1 1
$ 1 1
$ 1 1
$ 1 0
$ 1 0
$ 1 0
$ 09
$ 17.2
500-999
$

$
$ 03
$ 05
$ 09
$ 1 1
$ 1 2
$ 1 3
$ 1 3
$ 1 3
$ 1 3
$ 1 3
$ 1 2
$ 1 2
$ 1 2
$ 1 1
$ 20.7
1,XO-3,299
$

$
$ 1 2
$ 20
$ 36
$ 44
$ 50
$ 5 1
$ 52
$ 52
$ 52
$ 5 1
$ 50
$ 49
$ 47
$ 43
S 83.9
3,3X-9,999
$

$
$ 27
$ 44
$ 79
$ 96
$ 109
$ 113
$ 114
$ 115
$ 114
$ 113
$ 11 1
$ 108
$ 103
$ 95
$ 183.8
10,XO-
49,999
$

$
$ 135
$ 21 6
$ 38 1
$ 438
$ 483
$ 493
$ 497
$ 493
$ 487
$ 479
$ 469
$ 457
$ 432
S 398
S 803.8
50,XO-
99,999
$

$
$ 11 1
$ 176
$ 29 1
$ 31 4
$ 337
$ 34 1
$ 342
$ 337
$ 332
$ 325
$ 31 8
$ 31 0
$ 292
$ 268
S 563.8
100,OX-
$

$
$ 479
$ 763
$ 1173
$ 1248
$ 1323
$ 1335
$ 1336
$ 131 1
$ 1289
$ 1262
$ 1232
$ 1199
$ 1128
$ 1035
$ 2,224.9
>1 ,XO,XO
$

$
$ 396
$ 630
$ 967
$ 1029
$ 1090
$ 1100
$ 1100
$ 1079
$ 106 1
$ 1039
$ 101 4
$ 987
$ 928
$ 852
$ 1,832.1
Total
$

$
$ 1167
« 1858
$ 2944
$ 3190
$ 341 6
$ 3458
$ 3466
$ 341 3
$ 3360
$ 3294
$ 321 8
$ 3135
$ 2953
$ 271 2
$ 5,732.5
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model
<100
$ -

$ -
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 02
$ 03
$ 03
$ 03
$ 03
$ 03
$ 03
$ 02
$ 02
$ 02
$ 02
$ 02
$ 4.2
100-499
$ -

$ -
$ 06
$ 09
$ 1 6
$ 1 9
$ 1
$ 2
$ 1
$ 0
$ 0
$ 1 9
$ 1 8
$ 1 7
$ 1 6
$ 14
$ 32.7
500-999
$ -

$ -
$ 07
$ 1 1
$ 1 9
$ 3
$ 6
$ 6
« 6
$ 5
$ 4
$ 3
$ 2
$ 1
$ 1 9
$ 1 7
S 39.4
1 ,OX-3,299
$

$
$ 27
$ 44
$ 79
$ 95
$ 105
$ 105
$ 104
$ 99
$ 96
$ 92
$ 88
$ 85
$ 77
$ 68
S 159.4
3,3X-9,999
$

$
$ 59
$ 96
$ 172
$ 208
$ 230
$ 23 1
$ 229
$ 21 8
$ 21 0
$ 202
$ 194
$ 185
« ,68
$ 150
S 349.4
10,XO-
49,999
$

$
$ 276
$ 445
$ 785
$ 899
$ 963
$ 962
$ 947
$ 896
$ 865
$ 83 1
$ 796
$ 76 1
$ 692
$ 61 5
$ 1,471.5
50,XO-
99,999
$

$
$ 225
$ 363
$ 600
$ 643
$ 664
$ 657
$ 643
$ 604
$ 582
$ 558
$ 534
$ 51 0
$ 462
$ 41 1
$ 1,026.1
100,OX-
999,999
$

$
$ 972
$ 1568
$ 2422
$ 2547
$ 2590
$ 2553
$ 2492
$ 2333
$ 2242
$ 2149
$ 2054
$ 196 1
$ 1778
$ 1578
$ 4,038.1
>1 ,XO,XO
$

$
$ 80 1
$ 129 1
$ 1993
$ 2095
$ 2130
$ 2099
$ 2049
$ 191 8
$ 1844
$ 1767
$ 1689
$ 161 2
$ 1462
$ 1298
$ 3,321.0
Total
$

$
$ 2373
$ 3828
$ 6089
$ 653 1
$ 6732
$ 6657
$ 651 5
$ 6330
$ 611 6
$ 5884
$ 5643
$ 5398
$ 5153
$ 4675
$ 4152
$ 10,441 .9
       Present values in millions of 2003 dollars Estimates are discounted to 200
       Ann = value of total annualized at discount rate
       Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding
       Derived from Exhibits F 1f, E 39b, E 39c, E 39f, E 39g, E 39j, and E 39k
         Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       December 2005

-------
         Section F.6
 Model Outputs - Alternative 1
      TTHM as Indicator
Lymphoma for Non-Fatal Cases

-------

-------
        Exhibit F.6a  Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                                (Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model)
 TTHM - Alternative 1
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Surface Water Systems
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 122.6
$ 326.7
$ 596.2
$ 921.0
$ 1,190.1
$ 1,420.1
$ 1,613.6
$ 1,781.3
$ 1,929.0
$ 2,061.0
$ 2,180.1
$ 2,288.6
$ 2,388.0
$ 2,479.9
$ 2,565.2
$ 2,645.0
$ 2,719.9
$ 2,790.7
$ 2,820.8
$ 2,877.1
$ 37,717.0
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 18.8
$ 50.0
$ 91.2
$ 141.0
$ 181.9
$ 217.2
$ 246.5
$ 272.0
$ 294.1
$ 314.0
$ 332.0
$ 348.1
$ 363.1
$ 377.2
$ 390.0
$ 401.5
$ 412.3
$ 422.5
$ 427.5
$ 435.4
$ 5,736.2
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 281.8
$ 751.4
$ 1,369.6
$ 2,115.4
$ 2,735.9
$ 3,266.1
$ 3,710.8
$ 4,100.3
$ 4,444.2
$ 4,756.2
$ 5,033.4
$ 5,284.1
$ 5,523.0
$ 5,736.8
$ 5,936.5
$ 6,121.5
$ 6,300.4
$ 6,474.3
$ 6,540.5
$ 6,677.3
$ 87,159.4
Ground Water Systems
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 4.2
$ 11.2
$ 20.4
$ 31.4
$ 42.5
$ 53.2
$ 61.8
$ 69.2
$ 75.6
$ 81.3
$ 86.4
$ 91.0
$ 95.3
$ 99.2
$ 102.8
$ 106.1
$ 109.3
$ 112.2
$ 113.5
$ 115.9
$ 1,482.5
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.6
$ 1.7
$ 3.1
$ 4.8
$ 6.5
$ 8.1
$ 9.4
$ 10.6
$ 11.5
$ 12.4
$ 13.2
$ 13.8
$ 14.5
$ 15.1
$ 15.6
$ 16.1
$ 16.6
$ 17.0
$ 17.2
$ 17.5
$ 225.4
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 9.6
$ 25.7
$ 46.8
$ 72.2
$ 97.8
$ 122.4
$ 142.2
$ 159.3
$ 174.2
$ 187.6
$ 199.5
$ 210.2
$ 220.3
$ 229.4
$ 237.8
$ 245.6
$ 253.1
$ 260.3
$ 263.2
$ 268.9
$ 3,426.1
All Systems
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 126.8
$ 337.8
$ 616.5
$ 952.4
$ 1,232.7
$ 1,473.4
$ 1,675.4
$ 1,850.5
$ 2,004.7
$ 2,142.3
$ 2,266.6
$ 2,379.6
$ 2,483.3
$ 2,579.0
$ 2,668.0
$ 2,751.1
$ 2,829.2
$ 2,902.9
$ 2,934.4
$ 2,993.0
$ 39,199.4
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 19.4
$ 51.7
$ 94.4
$ 145.8
$ 188.4
$ 225.3
$ 255.9
$ 282.6
$ 305.7
$ 326.3
$ 345.1
$ 361.9
$ 377.6
$ 392.3
$ 405.6
$ 417.6
$ 428.9
$ 439.5
$ 444.7
$ 452.9
$ 5,961.6
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 291.4
$ 777.1
$ 1,416.4
$ 2,187.6
$ 2,833.6
$ 3,388.5
$ 3,853.0
$ 4,259.5
$ 4,618.4
$ 4,943.9
$ 5,232.9
$ 5,494.3
$ 5,743.3
$ 5,966.2
$ 6,174.3
$ 6,367.0
$ 6,553.4
$ 6,734.6
$ 6,803.8
$ 6,946.3
$ 90,585.6
 Notes:      All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
           Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
 Source:     Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.40b, and E.40c.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
            Exhibit F.6b  Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as
                 Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model
                                          (All Water Systems)

            TTHM -Alternative 1

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Ann.
3% Discount Rate

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 109.4
$ 282.9
$ 501 .3
$ 751 .8
$ 944.7
$ 1 ,096.3
$ 1,210.4
$ 1 ,297.9
$ 1,365.1
$ 1,416.3
$ 1 ,454.8
$ 1 ,482.9
$ 1 ,502.4
$ 1,514.9
$ 1 ,521 .5
$ 1 ,523.2
$ 1 ,520.8
$ 1,515.0
$ 1 ,486.8
$ 1 ,472.4
$ 23,970.9
$ 1,376.6
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 16.7
$ 43.3
$ 76.7
$ 115.1
$ 144.4
$ 167.6
$ 184.9
$ 198.2
$ 208.1
$ 215.8
$ 221 .5
$ 225.5
$ 228.5
$ 230.4
$ 231 .3
$ 231 .2
$ 230.5
$ 229.4
$ 225.3
$ 222.8
$ 3,647.4
$ 209.5
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 251.4
$ 650.8
$ 1,151.6
$ 1,726.9
$ 2,171.7
$ 2,521.3
$ 2,783.5
$ 2,987.6
$ 3,144.9
$ 3,268.5
$ 3,358.8
$ 3,423.9
$ 3,474.8
$ 3,504.5
$ 3,521.1
$ 3,525.3
$ 3,522.8
$ 3,514.7
$ 3,447.4
$ 3,417.1
$ 55,368.7
$ 3,179.7
7% Discount Rate

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 90.4
$ 225.1
$ 384.0
$ 554.3
$ 670.5
$ 749.0
$ 796.0
$ 821.6
$ 831.9
$ 830.8
$ 821.5
$ 806.1
$ 786.1
$ 763.0
$ 737.7
$ 710.9
$ 683.3
$ 655.2
$ 619.0
$ 590.1
$ 13,126.5
$ 1,126.4
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 13.8
$ 34.5
$ 58.8
$ 84.8
$ 102.5
$ 114.5
$ 121.6
$ 125.5
$ 126.8
$ 126.6
$ 125.1
$ 122.6
$ 119.5
$ 116.1
$ 112.1
$ 107.9
$ 103.6
$ 99.2
$ 93.8
$ 89.3
$ 1,998.6
$ 171.5
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 207.8
$ 517.8
$ 882.0
$ 1 ,273.2
$ 1 ,541 .3
$ 1 ,722.5
$ 1 ,830.5
$ 1 ,891 .3
$ 1,916.5
$ 1,917.3
$ 1 ,896.6
$ 1,861.1
$ 1,818.2
$ 1 ,765.2
$ 1 ,707.2
$ 1 ,645.4
$ 1 ,582.7
$ 1,520.1
$ 1 ,435.2
$ 1 ,369.4
$ 30,301.5
$ 2,600.2
            Notes:     Present values in millions of 2003 dollars.  Estimates are discounted to 2005.
                     Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate.
                     Detail may not add exactly to totals due to  independent rounding.
            Source:    Derived from Exhibit F.6a.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
  Exhibit F.6c  Mean Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal
                                 Cases, at 3% Discount Rate, by System Size
                                                (All Systems)

 TTHM - Alternative 1
Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Ann.
<100
$ -
$ -
$ -
-
$ -
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 6.7
$ 0.4
100-499
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.5
$ 0.9
$ 1.3
$ 1.8
$ 2.3
$ 2.6
$ 2.9
$ 3.1
$ 3.2
$ 3.3
$ 3.4
$ 3.5
$ 3.5
$ 3.6
$ 3.6
$ 3.6
$ 3.6
$ 3.5
$ 3.5
$ 53.6
$ 3.1
500-999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.3
$ 0.6
$ 1.1
$ 1.7
$ 2.4
$ 3.0
$ 3.5
$ 3.8
$ 4.1
$ 4.3
$ 4.5
$ 4.6
$ 4.7
$ 4.7
$ 4.8
$ 4.8
$ 4.8
$ 4.8
$ 4.7
$ 4.7
$ 71.8
$ 4.1
1,000-3,299
$
$
$
-
$
$ 1.2
$ 3.1
$ 5.5
$ 8.3
$ 11.3
$ 14.5
$ 16.7
$ 18.4
$ 19.7
$ 20.7
$ 21.5
$ 22.1
$ 22.5
$ 22.7
$ 22.9
$ 23.0
$ 23.0
$ 23.0
$ 22.6
$ 22.4
$ 345.3
$ 19.8
3,300-9,999
$
$
$
-
$
$ 3.0
$ 7.7
$ 13.7
$ 20.5
$ 28.0
$ 35.9
$ 41.5
$ 45.7
$ 48.9
$ 51.3
$ 53.2
$ 54.6
$ 55.6
$ 56.3
$ 56.7
$ 57.0
$ 57.0
$ 56.9
$ 55.9
$ 55.5
$ 854.8
$ 49.1
10,000-
49,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 12.2
$ 31.6
$ 56.1
$ 84.1
$ 114.7
$ 141.6
$ 161.0
$ 175.8
$ 187.1
$ 195.7
$ 202.3
$ 207.2
$ 210.7
$ 213.0
$ 214.5
$ 215.1
$ 215.2
$ 214.6
$ 210.9
$ 209.0
$ 3,272.4
$ 187.9
50,000-99,999
$
$
$
-
$
$ 10.3
$ 26.5
$ 47.0
$ 70.5
$ 91.5
$ 106.5
$ 117.9
$ 126.7
$ 133.4
$ 138.5
$ 142.4
$ 145.2
$ 147.2
$ 148.5
$ 149.1
$ 149.3
$ 149.1
$ 148.6
$ 145.9
$ 144.5
$ 2,338.6
$ 134.3
100,000-
999,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 44.8
$ 115.9
$ 205.3
$ 307.9
$ 378.6
$ 431.6
$ 472.3
$ 503.6
$ 527.6
$ 545.9
$ 559.6
$ 569.6
$ 576.4
$ 580.6
$ 582.6
$ 582.9
$ 581.7
$ 579.2
$ 568.2
$ 562.5
$ 9,276.7
$ 532.7
>1, 000,000
$
$
$
-
$
$ 37.4
$ 96.8
$ 171.6
$ 257.3
$ 316.3
$ 360.6
$ 394.6
$ 420.7
$ 440.8
$ 456.2
$ 467.6
$ 475.9
$ 481.6
$ 485.1
$ 486.8
$ 487.0
$ 486.0
$ 483.9
$ 474.7
$ 470.0
$ 7,751.0
$ 445.1
Total
$
$
$
-
$
$ 109.4
$ 282.9
$ 501.3
$ 751.8
$ 944.7
$ 1,096.3
$ 1,210.4
$ 1,297.9
$ 1,365.1
$ 1,416.3
$ 1,454.8
$ 1,482.9
$ 1,502.4
$ 1,514.9
$ 1,521.5
$ 1,523.2
$ 1,520.8
$ 1,515.0
$ 1,486.8
$ 1,472.4
$ 23,970.9
$ 1,376.6
 Notes:  Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005.
        Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate.
        Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
 Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f and E.40d.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
  Exhibit F.6d  Mean Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal
                                 Cases, at 7% Discount Rate, by System Size
                                                (All Systems)

 TTHM - Alternative 1
Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Ann.
<100
$ -
$ -
$ -
-
$ -
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 3.6
$ 0.3
100-499
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.4
$ 0.7
$ 0.9
$ 1.2
$ 1.5
$ 1.7
$ 1.8
$ 1.9
$ 1.9
$ 1.9
$ 1.9
$ 1.8
$ 1.8
$ 1.7
$ 1.7
$ 1.6
$ 1.5
$ 1.5
$ 1.4
$ 28.9
$ 2.5
500-999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.5
$ 0.9
$ 1.3
$ 1.7
$ 2.1
$ 2.3
$ 2.4
$ 2.5
$ 2.5
$ 2.5
$ 2.5
$ 2.4
$ 2.4
$ 2.3
$ 2.2
$ 2.2
$ 2.1
$ 2.0
$ 1.9
$ 38.8
$ 3.3
1,000-3,299
$
$
$
-
$
$ 1.0
$ 2.5
$ 4.2
$ 6.1
$ 8.0
$ 9.9
$ 11.0
$ 11.7
$ 12.0
$ 12.2
$ 12.1
$ 12.0
$ 11.8
$ 11.5
$ 11.1
$ 10.7
$ 10.3
$ 9.9
$ 9.4
$ 9.0
$ 186.5
$ 16.0
3,300-9,999
$
$
$
-
$
$ 2.5
$ 6.1
$ 10.5
$ 15.1
$ 19.9
$ 24.5
$ 27.3
$ 28.9
$ 29.8
$ 30.1
$ 30.0
$ 29.7
$ 29.1
$ 28.4
$ 27.5
$ 26.6
$ 25.6
$ 24.6
$ 23.3
$ 22.2
$ 461.7
$ 39.6
10,000-
49,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 10.1
$ 25.2
$ 42.9
$ 62.0
$ 81.4
$ 96.7
$ 105.9
$ 111.3
$ 114.0
$ 114.8
$ 114.2
$ 112.6
$ 110.2
$ 107.3
$ 104.0
$ 100.4
$ 96.7
$ 92.8
$ 87.8
$ 83.8
$ 1,774.2
$ 152.2
50,000-99,999
$
$
$
-
$
$ 8.5
$ 21.1
$ 36.0
$ 52.0
$ 64.9
$ 72.8
$ 77.5
$ 80.2
$ 81.3
$ 81.3
$ 80.4
$ 78.9
$ 77.0
$ 74.8
$ 72.3
$ 69.7
$ 67.0
$ 64.3
$ 60.7
$ 57.9
$ 1,278.6
$ 109.7
100,000-
999,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 37.0
$ 92.2
$ 157.3
$ 227.0
$ 268.7
$ 294.9
$ 310.6
$ 318.8
$ 321.5
$ 320.3
$ 316.0
$ 309.6
$ 301.6
$ 292.4
$ 282.5
$ 272.1
$ 261.3
$ 250.5
$ 236.5
$ 225.4
$ 5,096.2
$ 437.3
>1, 000,000
$
$
$
-
$
$ 30.9
$ 77.0
$ 131.4
$ 189.7
$ 224.5
$ 246.4
$ 259.5
$ 266.4
$ 268.6
$ 267.6
$ 264.0
$ 258.7
$ 252.0
$ 244.3
$ 236.0
$ 227.3
$ 218.4
$ 209.3
$ 197.6
$ 188.3
$ 4,258.0
$ 365.4
Total
$
$
$
-
$
$ 90.4
$ 225.1
$ 384.0
$ 554.3
$ 670.5
$ 749.0
$ 796.0
$ 821.6
$ 831.9
$ 830.8
$ 821.5
$ 806.1
$ 786.1
$ 763.0
$ 737.7
$ 710.9
$ 683.3
$ 655.2
$ 619.0
$ 590.1
$ 13,126.5
$ 1,126.4
 Notes:  Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005.
        Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate.
        Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
 Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f and E.40d.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
         Section F.7
 Model Outputs - Alternative 1
      TTHM as Indicator
Bronchitis for Non-Fatal Cases

-------

-------
       Exhibit F.7a Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                              (Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model)

 TTHM-Alternative 1

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Surface Water Systems

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 60.6
$ 161.5
$ 294.9
$ 455.9
$ 589.6
$ 704.1
$ 800.6
$ 884.5
$ 958.6
$ 1 ,025.0
$ 1,085.1
$ 1,140.0
$ 1,190.5
$ 1 ,237.4
$ 1,281.0
$ 1 ,322.0
$ 1 ,360.6
$ 1 ,397.3
$ 1,411.9
$ 1,441.0
$ 18,802.2
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 13.3
$ 35.5
$ 64.8
$ 100.1
$ 129.2
$ 154.0
$ 175.0
$ 193.1
$ 208.7
$ 222.8
$ 235.5
$ 247.1
$ 257.6
$ 267.0
$ 276.2
$ 284.4
$ 292.3
$ 299.7
$ 303.0
$ 308.9
$ 4,068.2
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 133.2
$ 355.7
$ 649.2
$ 1,003.1
$ 1 ,297.9
$ 1 ,552.5
$ 1 ,764.9
$ 1 ,953.4
$ 2,117.8
$ 2,269.8
$ 2,404.8
$ 2,529.5
$ 2,646.8
$ 2,751.3
$ 2,849.8
$ 2,942.7
$ 3,029.6
$ 3,119.0
$ 3,148.9
$ 3,219.5
$ 41,739.3
Ground Water Systems

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.1
$ 5.5
$ 10.1
$ 15.6
$ 21.1
$ 26.4
$ 30.7
$ 34.4
$ 37.6
$ 40.4
$ 43.0
$ 45.4
$ 47.5
$ 49.5
$ 51.3
$ 53.0
$ 54.7
$ 56.2
$ 56.8
$ 58.0
$ 739.1
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.5
$ 1.2
$ 2.2
$ 3.4
$ 4.6
$ 5.8
$ 6.7
$ 7.5
$ 8.2
$ 8.8
$ 9.3
$ 9.8
$ 10.3
$ 10.7
$ 11.1
$ 11.4
$ 11.7
$ 12.0
$ 12.2
$ 12.4
$ 159.9
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 4.5
$ 12.1
$ 22.2
$ 34.2
$ 46.4
$ 58.2
$ 67.6
$ 75.9
$ 83.0
$ 89.5
$ 95.3
$ 100.6
$ 105.6
$ 110.0
$ 114.2
$ 118.1
$ 121.7
$ 125.4
$ 126.7
$ 129.7
$ 1,641.0
All Systems

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 62.6
$ 167.0
$ 305.0
$ 471.5
$ 610.7
$ 730.5
$ 831.3
$ 918.8
$ 996.2
$ 1 ,065.4
$ 1,128.1
$ 1,185.4
$ 1 ,238.0
$ 1 ,286.8
$ 1 ,332.3
$ 1 ,375.0
$ 1,415.3
$ 1 ,453.4
$ 1 ,468.7
$ 1,499.1
$ 19,541.3
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 13.8
$ 36.7
$ 67.0
$ 103.5
$ 133.8
$ 159.8
$ 181.7
$ 200.6
$ 216.9
$ 231.6
$ 244.9
$ 256.9
$ 267.8
$ 277.6
$ 287.2
$ 295.8
$ 304.1
$ 311.7
$ 315.2
$ 321.3
$ 4,228.0
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 137.7
$ 367.8
$ 671 .3
$ 1 ,037.4
$ 1 ,344.3
$ 1,610.7
$ 1 ,832.6
$ 2,029.3
$ 2,200.8
$ 2,359.3
$ 2,500.1
$ 2,630.1
$ 2,752.4
$ 2,861.3
$ 2,963.9
$ 3,060.8
$ 3,151.3
$ 3,244.4
$ 3,275.6
$ 3,349.1
$ 43,380.3
 Notes:  All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
        Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
 Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.40b, and E.40c.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
                   Exhibit F.7b Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for
                     Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, Smoking/Lung Cancer
                                          Cessation Lag Model
                                           (All Water Systems)

                TTHM -Alternative 1
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Ann.
3% Discount Rate
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 54.0
$ 139.9
$ 248.0
$ 372.2
$ 468.0
$ 543.5
$ 600.5
$ 644.4
$ 678.4
$ 704.4
$ 724.1
$ 738.7
$ 749.0
$ 755.9
$ 759.8
$ 761 .3
$ 760.8
$ 758.5
$ 744.2
$ 737.4
$ 11,943.1
$ 685.9
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 11.9
$ 30.8
$ 54.5
$ 81.7
$ 102.6
$ 118.9
$ 131.2
$ 140.7
$ 147.7
$ 153.1
$ 157.2
$ 160.1
$ 162.0
$ 163.1
$ 163.8
$ 163.8
$ 163.4
$ 162.7
$ 159.7
$ 158.1
$ 2,587.0
$ 148.6
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 118.8
$ 308.1
$ 545.8
$ 818.9
$ 1 ,030.3
$ 1,198.5
$ 1 ,323.9
$ 1 ,423.3
$ 1 ,498.7
$ 1 ,559.8
$ 1 ,604.7
$ 1 ,639.0
$ 1 ,665.3
$ 1 ,680.7
$ 1 ,690.3
$ 1 ,694.7
$ 1 ,694.0
$ 1 ,693.2
$ 1 ,659.7
$ 1 ,647.6
$ 26,495.1
$ 1,521.6
7% Discount Rate
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 44.6
$ 111.3
$ 189.9
$ 274.4
$ 332.2
$ 371.3
$ 394.9
$ 408.0
$ 413.4
$ 413.2
$ 408.9
$ 401.5
$ 391.9
$ 380.7
$ 368.4
$ 355.3
$ 341.8
$ 328.1
$ 309.8
$ 295.5
$ 6,535.3
$ 560.8
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 9.8
$ 24.5
$ 41.7
$ 60.2
$ 72.8
$ 81.2
$ 86.3
$ 89.1
$ 90.0
$ 89.8
$ 88.7
$ 87.0
$ 84.8
$ 82.1
$ 79.4
$ 76.4
$ 73.4
$ 70.4
$ 66.5
$ 63.3
$ 1,417.7
$ 121.7
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 98.2
$ 245.1
$ 418.1
$ 603.8
$ 731 .2
$ 818.8
$ 870.6
$ 901 .0
$ 913.3
$ 915.0
$ 906.2
$ 890.9
$ 871 .3
$ 846.5
$ 819.5
$ 791 .0
$ 761.1
$ 732.3
$ 691 .0
$ 660.3
$ 14,485.1
$ 1,243.0
                Notes:    Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005.
                         Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate.
                         Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
                Source:   Derived from Exhibit F.7a.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
  Exhibit F.7c Mean Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-
                             Fatal Cases, at 3% Discount Rate, by System Size
                                               (All Systems)
  TTHM-Alternative 1
Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Ann.
<100
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 3.3
$ 0.2
100-499
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.4
$ 0.6
$ 0.9
$ 1.1
$ 1.3
$ 1.4
$ 1.5
$ 1.6
$ 1.7
$ 1.7
$ 1.7
$ 1.8
$ 1.8
$ 1.8
$ 1.8
$ 1.8
$ 1.8
$ 1.7
$ 26.7
$ 1.5
500-999
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ 0.1
$ 0.3
$ 0.6
$ 0.9
$ 1.2
$ 1.5
$ 1.7
$ 1.9
$ 2.0
$ 2.1
$ 2.2
$ 2.3
$ 2.3
$ 2.4
$ 2.4
$ 2.4
$ 2.4
$ 2.4
$ 2.4
$ 2.3
$ 35.8
$ 2.1
1,000-3,299
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.6
$ 1.5
$ 2.7
$ 4.1
$ 5.6
$ 7.2
$ 8.3
$ 9.2
$ 9.8
$ 10.3
$ 10.7
$ 11.0
$ 11.2
$ 11.3
$ 11.4
$ 11.5
$ 11.5
$ 11.5
$ 11.3
$ 11.2
$ 172.1
$ 9.9
3,300-9,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.5
$ 3.8
$ 6.8
$ 10.2
$ 13.9
$ 17.8
$ 20.6
$ 22.7
$ 24.3
$ 25.5
$ 26.5
$ 27.2
$ 27.7
$ 28.1
$ 28.3
$ 28.5
$ 28.5
$ 28.5
$ 28.0
$ 27.8
$ 426.0
$ 24.5
10,000-
49,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 6.0
$ 15.6
$ 27.7
$ 41.6
$ 56.8
$ 70.2
$ 79.9
$ 87.3
$ 93.0
$ 97.3
$ 100.7
$ 103.2
$ 105.0
$ 106.3
$ 107.1
$ 107.5
$ 107.6
$ 107.5
$ 105.6
$ 104.7
$ 1,630.7
$ 93.6
50,000-
99,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 5.1
$ 13.1
$ 23.3
$ 34.9
$ 45.3
$ 52.8
$ 58.5
$ 62.9
$ 66.3
$ 68.9
$ 70.9
$ 72.3
$ 73.4
$ 74.1
$ 74.5
$ 74.6
$ 74.6
$ 74.4
$ 73.0
$ 72.4
$ 1,165.2
$ 66.9
100,000-
999,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 22.1
$ 57.3
$ 101.6
$ 152.4
$ 187.6
$ 214.0
$ 234.3
$ 250.0
$ 262.2
$ 271 .5
$ 278.5
$ 283.7
$ 287.3
$ 289.7
$ 291 .0
$ 291 .3
$ 291 .0
$ 290.0
$ 284.4
$ 281 .7
$ 4,621.7
$ 265.4
>1, 000,000
$
$
$
$
$
$ 18.5
$ 47.9
$ 84.9
$ 127.4
$ 156.7
$ 178.8
$ 195.8
$ 208.9
$ 219.1
$ 226.9
$ 232.7
$ 237.1
$ 240.1
$ 242.0
$ 243.1
$ 243.4
$ 243.1
$ 242.3
$ 237.6
$ 235.4
$ 3,861.6
$ 221.8
Total
$
$
$
$
$
$ 54.0
$ 139.9
$ 248.0
$ 372.2
$ 468.0
$ 543.5
$ 600.5
$ 644.4
$ 678.4
$ 704.4
$ 724.1
$ 738.7
$ 749.0
$ 755.9
$ 759.8
$ 761 .3
$ 760.8
$ 758.5
$ 744.2
$ 737.4
$ 11,943.1
$ 685.9
  Notes:   Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to
         Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate.
         Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
  Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f and E.40d.
2005.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
                             December 2005

-------
  Exhibit F.7d Mean Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-
                            Fatal Cases, at 7% Discount Rate, by System Size
                                               (All Systems)
  TTHM-Alternative 1
Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Ann.
<100
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 1.8
$ 0.2
100-499
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.5
$ 0.6
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.9
$ 0.9
$ 0.9
$ 0.9
$ 0.9
$ 0.9
$ 0.9
$ 0.9
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 14.4
$ 1.2
500-999
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ 0.1
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.6
$ 0.8
$ 1.0
$ 1.1
$ 1.2
$ 1.2
$ 1.3
$ 1.3
$ 1.2
$ 1.2
$ 1.2
$ 1.2
$ 1.1
$ 1.1
$ 1.0
$ 1.0
$ 0.9
$ 19.3
$ 1.7
1,000-3,299
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.5
$ 1.2
$ 2.1
$ 3.0
$ 4.0
$ 4.9
$ 5.5
$ 5.8
$ 6.0
$ 6.0
$ 6.0
$ 6.0
$ 5.9
$ 5.7
$ 5.5
$ 5.4
$ 5.2
$ 5.0
$ 4.7
$ 4.5
$ 92.9
$ 8.0
3,300-9,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.2
$ 3.0
$ 5.2
$ 7.5
$ 9.8
$ 12.2
$ 13.5
$ 14.4
$ 14.8
$ 15.0
$ 15.0
$ 14.8
$ 14.5
$ 14.2
$ 13.7
$ 13.3
$ 12.8
$ 12.3
$ 11.7
$ 11.1
$ 229.9
$ 19.7
10,000-
49,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 5.0
$ 12.4
$ 21.2
$ 30.7
$ 40.3
$ 48.0
$ 52.5
$ 55.2
$ 56.6
$ 57.1
$ 56.9
$ 56.1
$ 55.0
$ 53.5
$ 51.9
$ 50.2
$ 48.4
$ 46.5
$ 43.9
$ 42.0
$ 883.5
$ 75.8
50,000-
99,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 4.2
$ 10.4
$ 17.8
$ 25.7
$ 32.2
$ 36.1
$ 38.5
$ 39.8
$ 40.4
$ 40.4
$ 40.0
$ 39.3
$ 38.4
$ 37.3
$ 36.1
$ 34.8
$ 33.5
$ 32.2
$ 30.4
$ 29.0
$ 636.6
$ 54.6
100,000-
999,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 18.3
$ 45.6
$ 77.8
$ 112.4
$ 133.1
$ 146.2
$ 154.1
$ 158.3
$ 159.8
$ 159.3
$ 157.3
$ 154.2
$ 150.3
$ 145.9
$ 141.1
$ 136.0
$ 130.7
$ 125.4
$ 118.4
$ 112.9
$ 2,537.1
$ 217.7
>1, 000,000
$
$
$
$
$
$ 15.3
$ 38.1
$ 65.0
$ 93.9
$ 111.2
$ 122.2
$ 128.8
$ 132.3
$ 133.5
$ 133.1
$ 131.4
$ 128.9
$ 125.6
$ 121.9
$ 117.9
$ 113.6
$ 109.2
$ 104.8
$ 98.9
$ 94.3
$ 2,119.8
$ 181.9
Total
$
$
$
$
$
$ 44.6
$ 111.3
$ 189.9
$ 274.4
$ 332.2
$ 371 .3
$ 394.9
$ 408.0
$ 413.4
$ 413.2
$ 408.9
$ 401 .5
$ 391 .9
$ 380.7
$ 368.4
$ 355.3
$ 341 .8
$ 328.1
$ 309.8
$ 295.5
$ 6,535.3
$ 560.8
  Notes:   Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to
         Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate.
         Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
  Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f and E.40d.
2005.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
                            December 2005

-------
         Section F.8
 Model Outputs - Alternative 2
      TTHM as Indicator
Lymphoma for Non-Fatal Cases

-------

-------
        Exhibit F.8a Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                                (Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model)
TTHM-Alternative 2
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Surface Water Systems
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 434.5
$ 1,157.5
$ 2,112.2
$ 3,262.5
$ 4,215.5
$ 5,029.8
$ 5,714.7
$ 6,308.1
$ 6,831.2
$ 7,298.4
$ 7,720.0
$ 8,103.8
$ 8,455.8
$ 8,780.9
$ 9,083.0
$ 9,365.3
$ 9,630.6
$ 9,881.1
$ 9,987.8
$ 10,187.0
$ 133,559.8
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 66.5
$ 177.2
$ 323.2
$ 499.4
$ 644.5
$ 769.1
$ 873.0
$ 963.2
$ 1,041.6
$ 1,111.8
$ 1,175.5
$ 1,232.5
$ 1,285.8
$ 1,335.5
$ 1,380.8
$ 1,421.6
$ 1,459.8
$ 1,496.1
$ 1,513.6
$ 1,541.6
$ 20,312.4
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 998.7
$ 2,662.4
$ 4,852.2
$ 7,493.8
$ 9,690.5
$ 11,567.7
$ 13,142.1
$ 14,520.6
$ 15,737.9
$ 16,842.6
$ 17,823.5
$ 18,710.9
$ 19,556.6
$ 20,313.4
$ 21,020.2
$ 21,674.9
$ 22,308.1
$ 22,923.7
$ 23,158.2
$ 23,642.5
$ 308,640.7
Ground Water Systems
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 39.5
$ 105.3
$ 192.2
$ 296.9
$ 398.7
$ 493.6
$ 570.8
$ 636.9
$ 694.7
$ 745.9
$ 792.0
$ 833.8
$ 871.9
$ 907.1
$ 939.7
$ 970.0
$ 998.5
$ 1,025.3
$ 1,037.1
$ 1,058.4
$ 13,608.4
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 6.1
$ 16.1
$ 29.4
$ 45.4
$ 61.0
$ 75.5
$ 87.2
$ 97.2
$ 105.9
$ 113.6
$ 120.6
$ 126.8
$ 132.6
$ 138.0
$ 142.8
$ 147.2
$ 151.4
$ 155.2
$ 157.2
$ 160.2
$ 2,069.5
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 90.9
$ 242.3
$ 441.6
$ 682.0
$ 916.5
$ 1,135.1
$ 1,312.7
$ 1,466.0
$ 1,600.4
$ 1,721.4
$ 1,828.5
$ 1,925.1
$ 2,016.6
$ 2,098.4
$ 2,174.6
$ 2,245.0
$ 2,312.9
$ 2,378.7
$ 2,404.7
$ 2,456.5
$ 31,450.0
All Systems
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 474.0
$ 1,262.9
$ 2,304.4
$ 3,559.4
$ 4,614.2
$ 5,523.4
$ 6,285.5
$ 6,945.0
$ 7,525.9
$ 8,044.4
$ 8,512.0
$ 8,937.6
$ 9,327.8
$ 9,688.0
$ 10,022.6
$ 10,335.3
$ 10,629.1
$ 10,906.4
$ 11,024.9
$ 11,245.4
$ 147,168.2
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 72.6
$ 193.4
$ 352.6
$ 544.8
$ 705.4
$ 844.6
$ 960.2
$ 1,060.5
$ 1,147.5
$ 1,225.4
$ 1,296.1
$ 1,359.4
$ 1,418.4
$ 1,473.5
$ 1,523.6
$ 1,568.8
$ 1,611.2
$ 1,651.3
$ 1,670.7
$ 1,701.8
$ 22,381.8
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1,089.6
$ 2,904.7
$ 5,293.8
$ 8,175.8
$ 10,607.1
$ 12,702.8
$ 14,454.8
$ 15,986.6
$ 17,338.3
$ 18,564.0
$ 19,652.1
$ 20,636.0
$ 21,573.2
$ 22,411.9
$ 23,194.8
$ 23,919.9
$ 24,621.0
$ 25,302.4
$ 25,562.9
$ 26,098.9
$ 340,090.7
Notes:     All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
          Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
Source:    Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.41b, and E.41c.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
            Exhibit F.8b  Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as
                 Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model
                                          (All Water Systems)

          TTHM-Alternative 2
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Ann.
3% Discount Rate
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 408.9
$ 1 ,057.7
$ 1 ,873.7
$ 2,809.8
$ 3,536.4
$ 4,109.9
$ 4,540.7
$ 4,871.1
$ 5,124.8
$ 5,318.3
$ 5,463.6
$ 5,569.6
$ 5,643.5
$ 5,690.7
$ 5,715.8
$ 5,722.4
$ 5,713.6
$ 5,692.0
$ 5,586.2
$ 5,532.0
$ 89,980.6
$ 5,167.4
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 62.6
$ 161.9
$ 286.7
$ 430.1
$ 540.6
$ 628.5
$ 693.7
$ 743.8
$ 781.4
$ 810.1
$ 831.9
$ 847.1
$ 858.2
$ 865.5
$ 868.9
$ 868.6
$ 866.1
$ 861.8
$ 846.6
$ 837.2
$ 13,691.3
$ 786.3
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 939.9
$ 2,432.7
$ 4,304.4
$ 6,454.0
$ 8,129.4
$ 9,452.1
$ 10,442.4
$ 11,212.7
$ 1 1 ,806.5
$ 12,273.0
$ 12,613.9
$ 12,859.7
$ 13,052.2
$ 13,164.6
$ 13,227.7
$ 13,243.9
$ 13,235.0
$ 13,205.1
$ 12,952.5
$ 12,838.9
$ 207,840.7
$ 11,935.8
7% Discount Rate
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 338.0
$ 841 .5
$ 1,435.1
$ 2,071.6
$ 2,509.8
$ 2,807.8
$ 2,986.2
$ 3,083.7
$ 3,123.0
$ 3,119.7
$ 3,085.2
$ 3,027.5
$ 2,952.9
$ 2,866.3
$ 2,771.3
$ 2,670.8
$ 2,567.1
$ 2,461.7
$ 2,325.7
$ 2,217.0
$ 49,261.9
$ 4,227.2
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 51.7
$ 128.9
$ 219.6
$ 317.1
$ 383.7
$ 429.3
$ 456.2
$ 470.9
$ 476.2
$ 475.2
$ 469.8
$ 460.5
$ 449.0
$ 435.9
$ 421 .3
$ 405.4
$ 389.1
$ 372.7
$ 352.4
$ 335.5
$ 7,500.5
$ 643.6
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 776.9
$ 1,935.6
$ 3,296.7
$ 4,758.4
$ 5,769.5
$ 6,457.5
$ 6,867.3
$ 7,098.2
$ 7,194.8
$ 7,199.4
$ 7,122.8
$ 6,990.1
$ 6,829.5
$ 6,630.9
$ 6,413.6
$ 6,181.4
$ 5,946.3
$ 5,711.1
$ 5,392.4
$ 5,145.3
$ 113,717.7
$ 9,758.2
          Notes:     Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005.
                   Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate.
                   Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
          Source:    Derived from Exhibit F.8a.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
     Exhibit F.8c  Mean Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal
                                    Cases, at 3% Discount Rate, by System Size
                                                   (All Systems)

 TTHM-Alternative 2
Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Ann.
<100
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.3
$ 0.5
$ 0.8
$ 1.1
$ 1.4
$ 1.7
$ 1.8
$ 1.9
$ 2.0
$ 2.1
$ 2.2
$ 2.2
$ 2.2
$ 2.3
$ 2.3
$ 2.3
$ 2.3
$ 2.2
$ 2.2
$ 34.1
$ 2.0
100-499
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.9
$ 2.4
$ 4.3
$ 6.4
$ 8.7
$ 11.2
$ 13.0
$ 14.3
$ 15.3
$ 16.0
$ 16.6
$ 17.1
$ 17.4
$ 17.6
$ 17.7
$ 17.8
$ 17.8
$ 17.8
$ 17.5
$ 17.3
$ 267.1
$ 15.3
500-999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.2
$ 3.0
$ 5.4
$ 8.1
$ 11.0
$ 14.1
$ 16.3
$ 18.0
$ 19.3
$ 20.2
$ 21.0
$ 21.5
$ 21.9
$ 22.2
$ 22.4
$ 22.4
$ 22.5
$ 22.4
$ 22.0
$ 21.9
$ 336.8
$ 19.3
1,000-3,299
$
$
$
$
$
$ 5.1
$ 13.3
$ 23.6
$ 35.3
$ 48.2
$ 61.8
$ 71.4
$ 78.6
$ 84.2
$ 88.4
$ 91.6
$ 94.0
$ 95.8
$ 97.0
$ 97.7
$ 98.1
$ 98.2
$ 98.0
$ 96.3
$ 95.5
$ 1,472.1
$ 84.5
3,300-9,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 12.0
$ 30.9
$ 54.8
$ 82.2
$ 112.1
$ 143.8
$ 166.1
$ 182.9
$ 195.7
$ 205.6
$ 213.1
$ 218.6
$ 222.7
$ 225.5
$ 227.2
$ 228.1
$ 228.3
$ 227.9
$ 224.0
$ 222.1
$ 3,423.7
$ 196.6
10,000-
49,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 50.0
$ 129.4
$ 229.2
$ 343.7
$ 468.7
$ 578.5
$ 657.9
$ 718.1
$ 764.3
$ 799.7
$ 826.5
$ 846.4
$ 860.7
$ 870.3
$ 876.2
$ 878.9
$ 878.9
$ 876.7
$ 861.4
$ 853.9
$ 13,369.3
$ 767.8
50,000-99,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 39.2
$ 101.3
$ 179.4
$ 269.1
$ 348.9
$ 406.2
$ 449.6
$ 482.9
$ 508.6
$ 528.1
$ 542.8
$ 553.6
$ 561.1
$ 566.0
$ 568.6
$ 569.4
$ 568.6
$ 566.5
$ 556.0
$ 550.7
$ 8,916.5
$ 512.1
100,000-
999,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 166.5
$ 430.6
$ 762.8
$ 1,144.0
$ 1,406.3
$ 1,603.1
$ 1,753.9
$ 1,870.1
$ 1,959.4
$ 2,027.3
$ 2,078.2
$ 2,114.9
$ 2,140.1
$ 2,155.7
$ 2,163.4
$ 2,164.3
$ 2,159.8
$ 2,150.5
$ 2,109.7
$ 2,088.4
$ 34,448.9
$ 1,978.3
>1, 000,000
$
$
$
$
$
$ 133.9
$ 346.4
$ 613.7
$ 920.3
$ 1,131.3
$ 1,289.6
$ 1,410.9
$ 1,504.4
$ 1,576.2
$ 1,630.9
$ 1,671.8
$ 1,701.3
$ 1,721.6
$ 1,734.2
$ 1,740.3
$ 1,741.1
$ 1,737.4
$ 1,729.9
$ 1,697.1
$ 1,680.0
$ 27,712.2
$ 1,591.4
Total
$
$
$
$
$
$ 408.9
$ 1,057.7
$ 1,873.7
$ 2,809.8
$ 3,536.4
$ 4,109.9
$ 4,540.7
$ 4,871.1
$ 5,124.8
$ 5,318.3
$ 5,463.6
$ 5,569.6
$ 5,643.5
$ 5,690.7
$ 5,715.8
$ 5,722.4
$ 5,713.6
$ 5,692.0
$ 5,586.2
$ 5,532.0
$ 89,980.6
$ 5,167.4
 Notes:  Present values in millions of 2003 dollars.  Estimates are discounted to 2005.
        Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate.
        Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
 Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and E.41d.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
   Exhibit F.8d  Mean Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal
                                  Cases, at 7% Discount Rate, by System Size
                                                  (All Systems)

 TTHM-Alternative 2
Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Ann.
<100
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.4
$ 0.6
$ 0.8
$ 1.0
$ 1.1
$ 1.2
$ 1.2
$ 1.2
$ 1.2
$ 1.2
$ 1.2
$ 1.1
$ 1.1
$ 1.1
$ 1.0
$ 1.0
$ 0.9
$ 0.9
$ 18.4
$ 1.6
100-499
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.8
$ 1.9
$ 3.3
$ 4.7
$ 6.2
$ 7.7
$ 8.5
$ 9.0
$ 9.3
$ 9.4
$ 9.4
$ 9.3
$ 9.1
$ 8.9
$ 8.6
$ 8.3
$ 8.0
$ 7.7
$ 7.3
$ 6.9
$ 144.3
$ 12.4
500-999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.0
$ 2.4
$ 4.1
$ 6.0
$ 7.8
$ 9.7
$ 10.7
$ 11.4
$ 11.7
$ 11.9
$ 11.8
$ 11.7
$ 11.5
$ 11.2
$ 10.8
$ 10.5
$ 10.1
$ 9.7
$ 9.2
$ 8.8
$ 181.9
$ 15.6
1,000-3,299
$
$
$
$
$
$ 4.3
$ 10.6
$ 18.1
$ 26.1
$ 34.2
$ 42.2
$ 47.0
$ 49.8
$ 51.3
$ 51.9
$ 51.7
$ 51.1
$ 50.1
$ 48.8
$ 47.4
$ 45.8
$ 44.1
$ 42.4
$ 40.1
$ 38.3
$ 795.1
$ 68.2
3,300-9,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 9.9
$ 24.6
$ 42.0
$ 60.6
$ 79.6
$ 98.3
$ 109.2
$ 115.8
$ 119.3
$ 120.6
$ 120.3
$ 118.8
$ 116.5
$ 113.6
$ 110.2
$ 106.5
$ 102.6
$ 98.5
$ 93.3
$ 89.0
$ 1,849.1
$ 158.7
10,000-
49,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 41.3
$ 102.9
$ 175.5
$ 253.4
$ 332.7
$ 395.3
$ 432.7
$ 454.6
$ 465.8
$ 469.1
$ 466.7
$ 460.1
$ 450.3
$ 438.4
$ 424.8
$ 410.2
$ 394.9
$ 379.2
$ 358.6
$ 342.2
$ 7,248.6
$ 622.0
50,000-99,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 32.4
$ 80.6
$ 137.4
$ 198.4
$ 247.6
$ 277.5
$ 295.7
$ 305.7
$ 309.9
$ 309.8
$ 306.5
$ 300.9
$ 293.6
$ 285.1
$ 275.7
$ 265.7
$ 255.5
$ 245.0
$ 231.5
$ 220.7
$ 4,875.2
$ 418.3
100,000-
999,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 137.6
$ 342.6
$ 584.3
$ 843.4
$ 998.1
$ 1,095.2
$ 1,153.4
$ 1,183.8
$ 1,194.0
$ 1,189.3
$ 1,173.5
$ 1,149.6
$ 1,119.8
$ 1,085.8
$ 1,048.9
$ 1,010.2
$ 970.3
$ 930.1
$ 878.3
$ 837.0
$ 18,925.2
$ 1,624.0
>1, 000,000
$
$
$
$
$
$ 110.7
$ 275.6
$ 470.0
$ 678.5
$ 802.9
$ 881.0
$ 927.9
$ 952.3
$ 960.5
$ 956.7
$ 944.0
$ 924.8
$ 900.8
$ 873.5
$ 843.8
$ 812.6
$ 780.6
$ 748.2
$ 706.5
$ 673.3
$ 15,224.2
$ 1,306.4
Total
$
$
$
$
$
$ 338.0
$ 841 .5
$ 1,435.1
$ 2,071.6
$ 2,509.8
$ 2,807.8
$ 2,986.2
$ 3,083.7
$ 3,123.0
$ 3,119.7
$ 3,085.2
$ 3,027.5
$ 2,952.9
$ 2,866.3
$ 2,771.3
$ 2,670.8
$ 2,567.1
$ 2,461.7
$ 2,325.7
$ 2,217.0
$49,261.9
$ 4,227.2
 Notes:   Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005.
        Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate.
        Detail may not add  exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
 Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f and E.41d.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
         Section F.9
 Model Outputs - Alternative 2
      TTHM as Indicator
Bronchitis for Non-Fatal Cases

-------

-------
       Exhibit F.9a Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                              (Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model)

 TTHM-Alternative 2

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Surface Water Systems

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 214.6
$ 572.2
$ 1 ,044.9
$ 1,615.1
$ 2,088.4
$ 2,493.7
$ 2,835.4
$ 3,132.2
$ 3,394.7
$ 3,629.7
$ 3,842.5
$ 4,036.8
$ 4,215.6
$ 4,381.4
$ 4,535.9
$ 4,680.9
$ 4,817.7
$ 4,947.3
$ 4,999.2
$ 5,102.3
$ 66,580.4
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 47.2
$ 125.8
$ 229.5
$ 354.6
$ 457.6
$ 545.5
$ 619.7
$ 683.7
$ 739.2
$ 789.1
$ 834.0
$ 875.0
$ 912.0
$ 945.3
$ 977.8
$ 1 ,006.9
$ 1,035.0
$ 1,061.1
$ 1,072.8
$ 1,093.6
$ 14,405.8
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 471 .9
$ 1 ,260.4
$ 2,299.8
$ 3,553.5
$ 4,597.3
$ 5,498.7
$ 6,250.6
$ 6,917.7
$ 7,499.7
$ 8,037.5
$ 8,515.5
$ 8,956.9
$ 9,372.2
$ 9,741.9
$ 10,090.5
$ 10,419.6
$ 10,727.2
$ 1 1 ,043.6
$ 11,149.3
$ 1 1 ,399.2
$ 147,803.0
Ground Water Systems

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 19.5
$ 52.1
$ 95.1
$ 147.0
$ 197.5
$ 244.7
$ 283.2
$ 316.2
$ 345.2
$ 371 .0
$ 394.2
$ 415.3
$ 434.7
$ 452.6
$ 469.3
$ 484.8
$ 499.5
$ 513.4
$ 519.1
$ 530.1
$ 6,784.6
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 4.3
$ 11.5
$ 20.9
$ 32.3
$ 43.3
$ 53.5
$ 61.9
$ 69.0
$ 75.2
$ 80.7
$ 85.6
$ 90.0
$ 94.0
$ 97.7
$ 101.2
$ 104.3
$ 107.3
$ 110.1
$ 111.4
$ 113.6
$ 1,467.7
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 43.0
$ 114.7
$ 209.3
$ 323.4
$ 434.8
$ 539.6
$ 624.3
$ 698.4
$ 762.6
$ 821.5
$ 873.6
$ 921.5
$ 966.4
$ 1,006.4
$ 1,043.9
$ 1,079.2
$ 1,112.2
$ 1,145.9
$ 1,157.7
$ 1,184.4
$ 15,062.9
All Systems

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 234.1
$ 624.3
$ 1,139.9
$ 1,762.1
$ 2,285.9
$ 2,738.4
$ 3,118.6
$ 3,448.5
$ 3,739.8
$ 4,000.7
$ 4,236.7
$ 4,452.1
$ 4,650.3
$ 4,834.0
$ 5,005.2
$ 5,165.7
$ 5,317.2
$ 5,460.7
$ 5,518.3
$ 5,632.4
$ 73,364.9
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 51.5
$ 137.3
$ 250.4
$ 386.8
$ 500.9
$ 599.0
$ 681 .6
$ 752.8
$ 814.4
$ 869.8
$ 919.6
$ 965.1
$ 1,006.1
$ 1 ,043.0
$ 1 ,079.0
$ 1,111.2
$ 1,142.4
$ 1,171.2
$ 1,184.2
$ 1 ,207.2
$ 15,873.4
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 514.9
$ 1,375.1
$ 2,509.1
$ 3,876.9
$ 5,032.1
$ 6,038.3
$ 6,874.9
$ 7,616.1
$ 8,262.3
$ 8,859.0
$ 9,389.1
$ 9,878.4
$ 10,338.7
$ 10,748.2
$ 11,134.4
$ 11,498.9
$ 11,839.4
$ 12,189.5
$ 12,307.1
$ 12,583.5
$ 162,865.9
 Notes:   All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
        Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
 Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.41b, and E.41c.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
                    Exhibit F.9b  Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for
                     Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, Smoking/Lung Cancer
                                          Cessation Lag Model
                                           (All Water Systems)

                TTHM-Alternative 2
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Ann.
3% Discount Rate
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 202.0
$ 522.8
$ 926.9
$ 1 ,391 .0
$ 1 ,752.0
$ 2,037.6
$ 2,252.9
$ 2,418.7
$ 2,546.7
$ 2,644.9
$ 2,719.4
$ 2,774.4
$ 2,813.5
$ 2,839.4
$ 2,854.4
$ 2,860.1
$ 2,858.2
$ 2,849.9
$ 2,796.1
$ 2,770.8
$ 44,831.7
$ 2,574.6
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 44.5
$ 115.0
$ 203.6
$ 305.4
$ 383.9
$ 445.7
$ 492.4
$ 528.0
$ 554.6
$ 575.0
$ 590.2
$ 601.4
$ 608.7
$ 612.6
$ 615.3
$ 615.3
$ 614.1
$ 611.2
$ 600.0
$ 593.9
$ 9,710.8
$ 557.7
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 444.1
$ 1,151.6
$ 2,040.1
$ 3,060.4
$ 3,856.7
$ 4,493.1
$ 4,966.6
$ 5,341.8
$ 5,626.3
$ 5,856.9
$ 6,026.5
$ 6,155.9
$ 6,255.1
$ 6,313.5
$ 6,349.8
$ 6,366.6
$ 6,364.3
$ 6,361.6
$ 6,235.9
$ 6,190.3
$ 99,456.9
$ 5,711.6
7% Discount Rate
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 166.9
$ 416.0
$ 709.9
$ 1,025.5
$ 1,243.4
$ 1,392.1
$ 1,481.6
$ 1,531.2
$ 1,551.9
$ 1,551.5
$ 1,535.6
$ 1,508.1
$ 1,472.2
$ 1,430.2
$ 1,384.0
$ 1,334.9
$ 1,284.2
$ 1,232.6
$ 1,164.1
$ 1,110.4
$ 24,526.1
$ 2,104.6
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 36.8
$ 91.5
$ 155.9
$ 225.1
$ 272.5
$ 304.5
$ 323.8
$ 334.2
$ 338.0
$ 337.3
$ 333.3
$ 326.9
$ 318.5
$ 308.6
$ 298.3
$ 287.2
$ 275.9
$ 264.4
$ 249.8
$ 238.0
$ 5,320.4
$ 456.5
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 367.1
$ 916.3
$ 1 ,562.6
$ 2,256.4
$ 2,737.1
$ 3,069.6
$ 3,266.2
$ 3,381.6
$ 3,428.6
$ 3,435.7
$ 3,403.0
$ 3,346.2
$ 3,273.0
$ 3,180.0
$ 3,078.8
$ 2,971.5
$ 2,859.4
$ 2,751.3
$ 2,596.1
$ 2,480.8
$ 54,361.2
$ 4,664.8
                Notes:    Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005.
                         Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate.
                         Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
                Source:   Derived from Exhibit F.9a.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
  Exhibit F.9c Mean Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-
                             Fatal Cases, at 3% Discount Rate, by System Size
                                               (All Systems)
  TTHM-Alternative 2
Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Ann.
<100
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.6
$ 0.7
$ 0.8
$ 0.9
$ 1.0
$ 1.0
$ 1.1
$ 1.1
$ 1.1
$ 1.1
$ 1.1
$ 1.1
$ 1.1
$ 1.1
$ 1.1
$ 1.1
$ 17.0
$ 1.0
100-499
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ 0.5
$ 1.2
$ 2.1
$ 3.2
$ 4.3
$ 5.6
$ 6.4
$ 7.1
$ 7.6
$ 8.0
$ 8.3
$ 8.5
$ 8.7
$ 8.8
$ 8.9
$ 8.9
$ 8.9
$ 8.9
$ 8.7
$ 8.7
$ 133.1
$ 7.6
500-999
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ 0.6
$ 1.5
$ 2.7
$ 4.0
$ 5.5
$ 7.0
$ 8.1
$ 8.9
$ 9.6
$ 10.1
$ 10.4
$ 10.7
$ 10.9
$ 11.1
$ 11.2
$ 11.2
$ 11.2
$ 11.2
$ 11.0
$ 10.9
$ 167.8
$ 9.6
1,000-3,299
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.5
$ 6.6
$ 11.7
$ 17.5
$ 23.9
$ 30.7
$ 35.4
$ 39.0
$ 41.8
$ 44.0
$ 45.6
$ 46.8
$ 47.7
$ 48.4
$ 48.8
$ 49.0
$ 49.1
$ 49.1
$ 48.2
$ 47.8
$ 733.7
$ 42.1
3,300-9,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 5.9
$ 15.3
$ 27.1
$ 40.7
$ 55.5
$ 71.3
$ 82.4
$ 90.8
$ 97.3
$ 102.2
$ 106.0
$ 108.9
$ 111.0
$ 112.5
$ 113.5
$ 114.0
$ 114.2
$ 114.1
$ 112.1
$ 111.3
$ 1,706.2
$ 98.0
10,000-
49,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 24.7
$ 63.9
$ 113.4
$ 170.1
$ 232.2
$ 286.8
$ 326.4
$ 356.6
$ 379.8
$ 397.7
$ 411.3
$ 421.6
$ 429.1
$ 434.3
$ 437.6
$ 439.3
$ 439.7
$ 439.0
$ 431.2
$ 427.7
$ 6,662.3
$ 382.6
50,000-
99,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 19.3
$ 50.1
$ 88.8
$ 133.2
$ 172.8
$ 201 .4
$ 223.1
$ 239.8
$ 252.7
$ 262.7
$ 270.2
$ 275.8
$ 279.8
$ 282.4
$ 283.9
$ 284.6
$ 284.4
$ 283.6
$ 278.3
$ 275.8
$ 4,442.7
$ 255.1
100,000-
999,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 82.2
$ 212.9
$ 377.4
$ 566.3
$ 696.7
$ 794.8
$ 870.2
$ 928.6
$ 973.7
$ 1 ,008.2
$ 1 ,034.4
$ 1 ,053.5
$ 1 ,067.0
$ 1 ,075.6
$ 1 ,080.4
$ 1 ,081 .8
$ 1 ,080.4
$ 1 ,076.7
$ 1 ,055.9
$ 1 ,046.0
$ 17,162.6
$ 985.6
>1, 000,000
$
$
$
$
$
$ 66.1
$ 171.2
$ 303.6
$ 455.6
$ 560.4
$ 639.4
$ 700.0
$ 747.0
$ 783.3
$ 811.1
$ 832.1
$ 847.5
$ 858.3
$ 865.3
$ 869.1
$ 870.2
$ 869.1
$ 866.2
$ 849.4
$ 841.5
$ 13,806.3
$ 792.9
Total
$
$
$
$
$
$ 202.0
$ 522.8
$ 926.9
$ 1 ,391 .0
$ 1 ,752.0
$ 2,037.6
$ 2,252.9
$ 2,418.7
$ 2,546.7
$ 2,644.9
$ 2,719.4
$ 2,774.4
$ 2,813.5
$ 2,839.4
$ 2,854.4
$ 2,860.1
$ 2,858.2
$ 2,849.9
$ 2,796.1
$ 2,770.8
$ 44,831.7
$ 2,574.6
  Notes:   Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to
         Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate.
         Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
  Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f and E.41d.
2005.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
                             December 2005

-------
  Exhibit F.9d Mean Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-
                            Fatal Cases, at 7% Discount Rate, by System Size
                                               (All Systems)
  TTHM-Alternative 2
Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Ann.
<100
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.4
$ 9.2
$ 0.8
100-499
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ 0.4
$ 0.9
$ 1.6
$ 2.3
$ 3.1
$ 3.8
$ 4.2
$ 4.5
$ 4.6
$ 4.7
$ 4.7
$ 4.6
$ 4.5
$ 4.4
$ 4.3
$ 4.2
$ 4.0
$ 3.8
$ 3.6
$ 3.5
$ 71.8
$ 6.2
500-999
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ 0.5
$ 1.2
$ 2.0
$ 3.0
$ 3.9
$ 4.8
$ 5.3
$ 5.7
$ 5.8
$ 5.9
$ 5.9
$ 5.8
$ 5.7
$ 5.6
$ 5.4
$ 5.2
$ 5.0
$ 4.9
$ 4.6
$ 4.4
$ 90.6
$ 7.8
1,000-3,299
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.1
$ 5.2
$ 8.9
$ 12.9
$ 17.0
$ 20.9
$ 23.3
$ 24.7
$ 25.5
$ 25.8
$ 25.7
$ 25.5
$ 25.0
$ 24.4
$ 23.7
$ 22.9
$ 22.1
$ 21.2
$ 20.1
$ 19.2
$ 396.0
$ 34.0
3,300-9,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 4.9
$ 12.2
$ 20.8
$ 30.0
$ 39.4
$ 48.7
$ 54.2
$ 57.5
$ 59.3
$ 60.0
$ 59.9
$ 59.2
$ 58.1
$ 56.7
$ 55.0
$ 53.2
$ 51.3
$ 49.3
$ 46.7
$ 44.6
$ 920.9
$ 79.0
10,000-
49,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 20.4
$ 50.9
$ 86.8
$ 125.4
$ 164.8
$ 196.0
$ 214.7
$ 225.7
$ 231.5
$ 233.3
$ 232.3
$ 229.2
$ 224.5
$ 218.7
$ 212.2
$ 205.0
$ 197.5
$ 189.9
$ 179.5
$ 171.4
$ 3,609.6
$ 309.7
50,000-
99,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 16.0
$ 39.8
$ 68.0
$ 98.2
$ 122.7
$ 137.6
$ 146.7
$ 151.8
$ 154.0
$ 154.1
$ 152.6
$ 149.9
$ 146.4
$ 142.2
$ 137.7
$ 132.8
$ 127.8
$ 122.7
$ 115.9
$ 110.5
$ 2,427.3
$ 208.3
100,000-
999,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 68.0
$ 169.4
$ 289.0
$ 417.5
$ 494.4
$ 543.0
$ 572.3
$ 587.8
$ 593.3
$ 591 .4
$ 584.1
$ 572.7
$ 558.3
$ 541 .8
$ 523.8
$ 504.9
$ 485.4
$ 465.7
$ 439.6
$ 419.2
$ 9,421.6
$ 808.5
>1, 000,000
$
$
$
$
$
$ 54.7
$ 136.2
$ 232.5
$ 335.9
$ 397.8
$ 436.8
$ 460.4
$ 472.9
$ 477.3
$ 475.8
$ 469.9
$ 460.7
$ 449.1
$ 435.8
$ 421.4
$ 406.2
$ 390.5
$ 374.6
$ 353.6
$ 337.2
$ 7,579.2
$ 650.4
Total
$
$
$
$
$
$ 166.9
$ 416.0
$ 709.9
$ 1 ,025.5
$ 1 ,243.4
$ 1,392.1
$ 1 ,481 .6
$ 1 ,531 .2
$ 1 ,551 .9
$ 1 ,551 .5
$ 1 ,535.6
$ 1,508.1
$ 1 ,472.2
$ 1 ,430.2
$ 1 ,384.0
$ 1 ,334.9
$ 1 ,284.2
$ 1 ,232.6
$ 1,164.1
$ 1,110.4
$ 24,526.1
$ 2,104.6
  Notes:   Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to
         Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate.
         Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
  Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f and E.41d.
2005.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
                            December 2005

-------
        Section F.10
 Model Outputs - Alternative 3
      TTHM as Indicator
Lymphoma for Non-Fatal Cases

-------

-------
        Exhibit F.10a Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                               (Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model)
TTHM-Alternative 3
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Surface Water Systems
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 593.4
$ 1,580.3
$ 2,882.9
$ 4,452.1
$ 5,751.2
$ 6,861.0
$ 7,794.1
$ 8,602.7
$ 9,315.4
$ 9,951.8
$ 10,526.2
$ 11,049.1
$ 11,528.6
$ 11,971.4
$ 12,383.0
$ 12,767.6
$ 13,129.0
$ 13,470.3
$ 13,615.6
$ 13,887.0
$ 182,112.8
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 90.8
$ 242.0
$ 441.2
$ 681.5
$ 879.2
$ 1,049.1
$ 1,190.7
$ 1,313.6
$ 1,420.4
$ 1,516.0
$ 1,602.8
$ 1,680.5
$ 1,753.1
$ 1,820.8
$ 1,882.4
$ 1,938.0
$ 1,990.2
$ 2,039.5
$ 2,063.3
$ 2,101.6
$ 27,696.6
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1,364.1
$ 3,634.9
$ 6,622.7
$ 10,226.2
$ 13,220.8
$ 15,779.2
$ 17,924.3
$ 19,802.4
$ 21,460.9
$ 22,965.9
$ 24,302.3
$ 25,511.1
$ 26,663.3
$ 27,694.3
$ 28,657.2
$ 29,549.1
$ 30,411.8
$ 31,250.5
$ 31,569.8
$ 32,229.6
$ 420,840.5
Ground Water Systems
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 61.0
$ 162.3
$ 296.2
$ 457.4
$ 614.0
$ 759.9
$ 878.6
$ 980.2
$ 1,069.0
$ 1,147.9
$ 1,218.7
$ 1,282.9
$ 1,341.5
$ 1,395.6
$ 1,445.6
$ 1,492.3
$ 1,536.1
$ 1,577.3
$ 1,595.4
$ 1,628.2
$ 20,939.8
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 9.3
$ 24.9
$ 45.3
$ 70.0
$ 93.9
$ 116.2
$ 134.2
$ 149.7
$ 163.0
$ 174.9
$ 185.6
$ 195.1
$ 204.0
$ 212.3
$ 219.8
$ 226.5
$ 232.8
$ 238.8
$ 241.8
$ 246.4
$ 3,184.4
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 140.1
$ 373.4
$ 680.4
$ 1,050.5
$ 1,411.4
$ 1,747.6
$ 2,020.6
$ 2,256.3
$ 2,462.8
$ 2,648.9
$ 2,813.6
$ 2,962.0
$ 3,102.7
$ 3,228.4
$ 3,345.5
$ 3,453.7
$ 3,558.1
$ 3,659.2
$ 3,699.2
$ 3,778.8
$ 48,393.3
All Systems
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 654.3
$ 1,742.7
$ 3,179.0
$ 4,909.4
$ 6,365.2
$ 7,620.9
$ 8,672.8
$ 9,582.9
$ 10,384.4
$ 11,099.7
$ 11,744.9
$ 12,331.9
$ 12,870.1
$ 13,367.0
$ 13,828.6
$ 14,259.9
$ 14,665.1
$ 15,047.6
$ 15,211.0
$ 15,515.2
$ 203,052.6
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 100.2
$ 266.8
$ 486.5
$ 751.5
$ 973.1
$ 1,165.3
$ 1,324.9
$ 1,463.3
$ 1,583.4
$ 1,690.8
$ 1,788.4
$ 1,875.6
$ 1,957.1
$ 2,033.0
$ 2,102.2
$ 2,164.5
$ 2,223.0
$ 2,278.3
$ 2,305.1
$ 2,348.0
$ 30,880.9
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1,504.2
$ 4,008.3
$ 7,303.0
$ 11,276.7
$ 14,632.2
$ 17,526.7
$ 19,944.9
$ 22,058.8
$ 23,923.8
$ 25,614.8
$ 27,115.8
$ 28,473.1
$ 29,766.0
$ 30,922.8
$ 32,002.7
$ 33,002.9
$ 33,969.9
$ 34,909.8
$ 35,269.1
$ 36,008.3
$ 469,233.7
Notes:     All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
          Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
Source:    Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.42b, and E.42c.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
                   Exhibit F.10b  Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for
                    Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, Smoking/Lung Cancer
                                         Cessation Lag Model
                                          (All Water Systems)

               TTHM-Alternative 3

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Ann.
3% Discount Rate

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 564.4
$ 1 ,459.5
$ 2,584.8
$ 3,875.6
$ 4,878.4
$ 5,670.7
$ 6,265.4
$ 6,721.2
$ 7,071.3
$ 7,338.2
$ 7,538.6
$ 7,684.9
$ 7,786.6
$ 7,851.7
$ 7,886.2
$ 7,895.3
$ 7,883.2
$ 7,853.2
$ 7,707.3
$ 7,632.4
$ 124,149.0
$ 7,129.6
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 86.4
$ 223.5
$ 395.6
$ 593.2
$ 745.8
$ 867.1
$ 957.1
$ 1 ,026.3
$ 1 ,078.2
$ 1,117.8
$ 1,147.9
$ 1,168.8
$ 1,184.1
$ 1,194.2
$ 1,198.8
$ 1,198.4
$ 1,195.0
$ 1,189.1
$ 1,168.0
$ 1,155.1
$ 18,890.3
$ 1,084.8
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1,297.6
$ 3,356.9
$ 5,938.0
$ 8,901.9
$ 11,214.4
$ 13,041.5
$ 14,408.6
$ 15,471.6
$ 16,290.9
$ 16,934.4
$ 17,404.6
$ 17,743.5
$ 18,008.9
$ 18,163.9
$ 18,250.7
$ 18,272.9
$ 18,260.5
$ 18,219.1
$ 17,870.5
$ 17,713.7
$ 286,764.2
$ 16,468.3
7% Discount Rate

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 466.5
$ 1,161.2
$ 1,979.7
$ 2,857.3
$ 3,462.2
$ 3,874.1
$ 4,120.4
$ 4,254.9
$ 4,309.2
$ 4,304.7
$ 4,256.9
$ 4,177.3
$ 4,074.4
$ 3,954.8
$ 3,823.7
$ 3,685.0
$ 3,541.8
$ 3,396.4
$ 3,208.7
$ 3,058.8
$ 67,968.0
$ 5,832.4
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 71.4
$ 177.8
$ 303.0
$ 437.4
$ 529.3
$ 592.4
$ 629.4
$ 649.7
$ 657.1
$ 655.7
$ 648.2
$ 635.3
$ 619.6
$ 601 .5
$ 581 .3
$ 559.3
$ 536.9
$ 514.3
$ 486.3
$ 462.9
$ 10,348.6
$ 888.0
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1,072.5
$ 2,670.9
$ 4,548.0
$ 6,563.1
$ 7,959.0
$ 8,909.7
$ 9,475.7
$ 9,794.3
$ 9,927.5
$ 9,933.8
$ 9,828.0
$ 9,644.8
$ 9,423.1
$ 9,148.9
$ 8,849.0
$ 8,528.6
$ 8,204.2
$ 7,879.6
$ 7,439.9
$ 7,098.9
$ 156,899.6
$ 13,463.6
               Notes:    Present values in millions of 2003 dollars.  Estimates are discounted to 2005.
                        Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate.
                        Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
               Source:   Derived from Exhibit F.10a.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
  Exhibit F.10c  Mean Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non
                            Fatal Cases, at 3% Discount Rate, by System Size
                                              (All Systems)
  TTHM-Alternative 3
Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Ann.
<100
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ 0.2
$ 0.5
$ 0.8
$ 1.2
$ 1.7
$ 2.1
$ 2.5
$ 2.7
$ 2.9
$ 3.0
$ 3.2
$ 3.2
$ 3.3
$ 3.3
$ 3.4
$ 3.4
$ 3.4
$ 3.4
$ 3.3
$ 3.3
$ 50.8
$ 2.9
100-499
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ 1.4
$ 3.6
$ 6.3
$ 9.5
$ 13.0
$ 16.6
$ 19.2
$ 21.2
$ 22.6
$ 23.8
$ 24.7
$ 25.3
$ 25.8
$ 26.1
$ 26.3
$ 26.4
$ 26.4
$ 26.4
$ 25.9
$ 25.7
$ 396.2
$ 22.8
500-999
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ 1.7
$ 4.5
$ 7.9
$ 11.8
$ 16.2
$ 20.7
$ 23.9
$ 26.3
$ 28.2
$ 29.6
$ 30.7
$ 31.5
$ 32.1
$ 32.5
$ 32.7
$ 32.9
$ 32.9
$ 32.8
$ 32.3
$ 32.0
$ 493.1
$ 28.3
1,000-3,299
$
$
$
$
$
$ 7.4
$ 19.1
$ 33.8
$ 50.7
$ 69.1
$ 88.6
$ 102.3
$ 112.7
$ 120.6
$ 126.6
$ 131.2
$ 134.7
$ 137.2
$ 138.9
$ 140.0
$ 140.5
$ 140.6
$ 140.3
$ 137.9
$ 136.8
$ 2,109.0
$ 121.1
3,300-9,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 16.9
$ 43.7
$ 77.4
$ 116.0
$ 158.2
$ 202.9
$ 234.3
$ 257.9
$ 276.0
$ 289.9
$ 300.4
$ 308.3
$ 314.0
$ 317.9
$ 320.4
$ 321 .6
$ 321 .8
$ 321 .2
$ 315.7
$ 313.1
$ 4,827.4
$ 277.2
10,000-
49,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 70.0
$ 181.1
$ 320.8
$ 480.9
$ 655.8
$ 809.4
$ 920.3
$ 1 ,004.4
$ 1 ,068.9
$ 1,118.2
$ 1,155.6
$ 1,183.4
$ 1 ,203.4
$ 1,216.9
$ 1 ,225.0
$ 1 ,228.8
$ 1 ,228.8
$ 1 ,225.7
$ 1 ,204.3
$ 1,193.7
$ 18,695.4
$ 1,073.6
50,000-
99,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 54.2
$ 140.2
$ 248.3
$ 372.2
$ 482.5
$ 561 .6
$ 621 .6
$ 667.6
$ 703.0
$ 730.0
$ 750.3
$ 765.1
$ 775.5
$ 782.2
$ 785.8
$ 786.8
$ 785.7
$ 782.8
$ 768.3
$ 761 .0
$12,324.6
$ 707.8
100,000-
999,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 229.4
$ 593.1
$ 1 ,050.5
$ 1 ,575.0
$ 1 ,935.7
$ 2,206.2
$ 2,413.4
$ 2,573.0
$ 2,695.7
$ 2,789.1
$ 2,858.8
$ 2,909.3
$ 2,943.9
$ 2,965.3
$ 2,975.7
$ 2,977.0
$ 2,970.6
$ 2,957.8
$ 2,901.6
$ 2,872.4
$ 47,393.3
$ 2,721.7
>1, 000,000
$
$
$
$
$
$ 183.2
$ 473.8
$ 839.1
$ 1,258.2
$ 1,546.3
$ 1,762.4
$ 1,927.9
$ 2,055.4
$ 2,153.4
$ 2,228.0
$ 2,283.7
$ 2,324.0
$ 2,351.6
$ 2,368.7
$ 2,377.1
$ 2,378.1
$ 2,373.0
$ 2,362.8
$ 2,317.9
$ 2,294.5
$ 37,859.3
$ 2,174.2
Total
$
$
$
$
$
$ 564.4
$ 1 ,459.5
$ 2,584.8
$ 3,875.6
$ 4,878.4
$ 5,670.7
$ 6,265.4
$ 6,721.2
$ 7,071.3
$ 7,338.2
$ 7,538.6
$ 7,684.9
$ 7,786.6
$ 7,851.7
$ 7,886.2
$ 7,895.3
$ 7,883.2
$ 7,853.2
$ 7,707.3
$ 7,632.4
$124,149.0
$ 7,129.6
  Notes:   Present values in millions of 2003 dollars.  Estimates are discounted to
         Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate.
         Detail may not add exactly to totals due to  independent rounding.
  Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f and E.42d.
2005.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
                            December 2005

-------
    Exhibit F.10d Mean Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for
                          Non-Fatal Cases, at 7% Discount Rate, by System Size
                                              (All Systems)
  TTHM-Alternative 3
Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Ann.
<100
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ 0.1
$ 0.4
$ 0.6
$ 0.9
$ 1.2
$ 1.5
$ 1.6
$ 1.7
$ 1.8
$ 1.8
$ 1.8
$ 1.8
$ 1.7
$ 1.7
$ 1.6
$ 1.6
$ 1.5
$ 1.5
$ 1.4
$ 1.3
$ 27.4
$ 2.4
100-499
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ 1.1
$ 2.9
$ 4.9
$ 7.0
$ 9.2
$ 11.4
$ 12.6
$ 13.4
$ 13.8
$ 14.0
$ 13.9
$ 13.8
$ 13.5
$ 13.1
$ 12.7
$ 12.3
$ 11.9
$ 11.4
$ 10.8
$ 10.3
$ 214.0
$ 18.4
500-999
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ 1.4
$ 3.6
$ 6.1
$ 8.7
$ 11.5
$ 14.2
$ 15.7
$ 16.7
$ 17.2
$ 17.4
$ 17.3
$ 17.1
$ 16.8
$ 16.4
$ 15.9
$ 15.3
$ 14.8
$ 14.2
$ 13.4
$ 12.8
$ 266.4
$ 22.9
1,000-3,299
$
$
$
$
$
$ 6.1
$ 15.2
$ 25.9
$ 37.4
$ 49.0
$ 60.6
$ 67.3
$ 71.3
$ 73.5
$ 74.3
$ 74.1
$ 73.2
$ 71.8
$ 70.0
$ 67.9
$ 65.6
$ 63.2
$ 60.7
$ 57.4
$ 54.8
$ 1,139.1
$ 97.7
3,300-9,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 14.0
$ 34.8
$ 59.3
$ 85.5
$ 112.3
$ 138.6
$ 154.1
$ 163.3
$ 168.2
$ 170.0
$ 169.6
$ 167.6
$ 164.3
$ 160.1
$ 155.3
$ 150.1
$ 144.6
$ 138.9
$ 131.5
$ 125.5
$ 2,607.4
$ 223.7
10,000-
49,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 57.9
$ 144.1
$ 245.7
$ 354.6
$ 465.5
$ 553.0
$ 605.2
$ 635.8
$ 651.4
$ 656.0
$ 652.6
$ 643.3
$ 629.7
$ 612.9
$ 594.0
$ 573.5
$ 552.1
$ 530.1
$ 501.4
$ 478.4
$ 10,136.8
$ 869.8
50,000-
99,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 44.8
$ 111.5
$ 190.1
$ 274.4
$ 342.4
$ 383.7
$ 408.8
$ 422.6
$ 428.4
$ 428.2
$ 423.7
$ 415.9
$ 405.8
$ 394.0
$ 381 .0
$ 367.2
$ 353.0
$ 338.6
$ 319.9
$ 305.0
$ 6,739.0
$ 578.3
100,000-
999,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 189.6
$ 471 .9
$ 804.6
$ 1,161.2
$ 1 ,373.8
$ 1 ,507.2
$ 1 ,587.2
$ 1 ,628.9
$ 1 ,642.7
$ 1,636.1
$ 1,614.3
$ 1 ,581 .4
$ 1 ,540.4
$ 1 ,493.6
$ 1 ,442.8
$ 1 ,389.5
$ 1 ,334.6
$ 1 ,279.2
$ 1 ,208.0
$ 1,151.1
$ 26,038.0
$ 2,234.3
>1, 000,000
$
$
$
$
$
$ 151.5
$ 377.0
$ 642.7
$ 927.6
$ 1,097.4
$ 1,204.0
$ 1,267.9
$ 1,301.2
$ 1,312.3
$ 1 ,307.0
$ 1 ,289.6
$ 1 ,263.3
$ 1 ,230.5
$ 1,193.1
$ 1,152.5
$ 1,109.9
$ 1 ,066.2
$ 1,021.9
$ 965.0
$ 919.6
$ 20,800.0
$ 1,784.9
Total
$
$
$
$
$
$ 466.5
$ 1,161.2
$ 1 ,979.7
$ 2,857.3
$ 3,462.2
$ 3,874.1
$ 4,120.4
$ 4,254.9
$ 4,309.2
$ 4,304.7
$ 4,256.9
$ 4,177.3
$ 4,074.4
$ 3,954.8
$ 3,823.7
$ 3,685.0
$ 3,541.8
$ 3,396.4
$ 3,208.7
$ 3,058.8
$ 67,968.0
$ 5,832.4
  Notes:   Present values in millions of 2003 dollars.  Estimates are discounted to
         Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate.
         Detail may not add exactly to totals due to  independent rounding.
  Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f and E.42d.
2005.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
                            December 2005

-------
        Section F.11
 Model Outputs - Alternative 3
      TTHM as Indicator
Bronchitis for Non-Fatal Cases

-------

-------
      Exhibit F.11a  Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                              (Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model)

TTHM-Alternative 3

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Surface Water Systems

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 293.1
$ 781.2
$ 1,426.1
$ 2,204.0
$ 2,849.2
$ 3,401.6
$ 3,867.1
$ 4,271.6
$ 4,629.1
$ 4,949.3
$ 5,239.2
$ 5,503.9
$ 5,747.6
$ 5,973.3
$ 6,183.9
$ 6,381.4
$ 6,567.8
$ 6,744.4
$ 6,815.0
$ 6,955.4
$ 90,784.2
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 64.5
$ 171.8
$ 313.2
$ 483.9
$ 624.4
$ 744.1
$ 845.2
$ 932.4
$ 1,008.1
$ 1 ,076.0
$ 1,137.1
$ 1,193.1
$ 1,243.5
$ 1,288.8
$ 1,333.1
$ 1,372.8
$ 1,411.0
$ 1,446.5
$ 1,462.5
$ 1,490.8
$ 19,642.7
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 644.6
$ 1 ,720.7
$ 3,139.0
$ 4,849.2
$ 6,272.1
$ 7,500.7
$ 8,525.1
$ 9,434.0
$ 10,226.9
$ 10,959.7
$ 11,610.8
$ 12,212.1
$ 12,778.0
$ 13,281.6
$ 13,756.6
$ 14,205.0
$ 14,624.0
$ 15,055.0
$ 15,199.0
$ 15,539.4
$ 201,533.3
Ground Water Systems

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 30.1
$ 80.3
$ 146.5
$ 226.4
$ 304.2
$ 376.7
$ 435.9
$ 486.7
$ 531 .2
$ 570.9
$ 606.6
$ 639.0
$ 668.8
$ 696.3
$ 721 .9
$ 745.9
$ 768.4
$ 789.7
$ 798.6
$ 815.5
$ 10,439.6
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 6.6
$ 17.6
$ 32.2
$ 49.7
$ 66.7
$ 82.4
$ 95.3
$ 106.2
$ 115.7
$ 124.1
$ 131.7
$ 138.5
$ 144.7
$ 150.2
$ 155.6
$ 160.4
$ 165.1
$ 169.4
$ 171.4
$ 174.8
$ 2,258.3
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 66.2
$ 176.8
$ 322.5
$ 498.2
$ 669.6
$ 830.7
$ 961.0
$ 1,074.9
$ 1,173.6
$ 1,264.1
$ 1,344.2
$ 1,417.9
$ 1,486.9
$ 1,548.3
$ 1,606.0
$ 1,660.3
$ 1,711.0
$ 1,762.8
$ 1,781.0
$ 1,821.9
$ 23,177.8
All Systems

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 323.2
$ 861 .4
$ 1 ,572.6
$ 2,430.4
$ 3,153.4
$ 3,778.3
$ 4,303.0
$ 4,758.3
$ 5,160.3
$ 5,520.2
$ 5,845.7
$ 6,143.0
$ 6,416.4
$ 6,669.7
$ 6,905.8
$ 7,127.3
$ 7,336.2
$ 7,534.2
$ 7,613.6
$ 7,770.9
$ 101,223.9
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 71.2
$ 189.5
$ 345.4
$ 533.6
$ 691 .0
$ 826.5
$ 940.5
$ 1 ,038.7
$ 1,123.7
$ 1,200.1
$ 1 ,268.8
$ 1 ,331 .6
$ 1,388.1
$ 1 ,439.0
$ 1 ,488.7
$ 1 ,533.2
$ 1,576.1
$ 1,615.9
$ 1 ,633.9
$ 1 ,665.5
$ 21,901.0
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 710.8
$ 1,897.5
$ 3,461.4
$ 5,347.3
$ 6,941.7
$ 8,331.4
$ 9,486.1
$ 10,508.9
$ 11,400.6
$ 12,223.8
$ 12,955.0
$ 13,630.0
$ 14,264.9
$ 14,829.9
$ 15,362.5
$ 15,865.3
$ 16,335.0
$ 16,817.9
$ 16,980.0
$ 17,361.4
$ 224,711.2
Notes:  All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
       Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.42b, and E.42c.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
                   Exhibit F.11 b Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for
                     Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, Smoking/Lung Cancer
                                          Cessation Lag Model
                                           (All Water Systems)

                TTHM-Alternative 3

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Ann.
3% Discount Rate

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 278.8
$ 721 .4
$ 1 ,278.7
$ 1,918.6
$ 2,416.8
$ 2,811.4
$ 3,108.6
$ 3,337.4
$ 3,513.9
$ 3,649.5
$ 3,752.2
$ 3,828.1
$ 3,882.0
$ 3,917.7
$ 3,938.3
$ 3,946.2
$ 3,943.6
$ 3,932.0
$ 3,857.7
$ 3,822.8
$ 61,855.7
$ 3,552.2
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 61.4
$ 158.7
$ 280.8
$ 421.2
$ 529.6
$ 615.0
$ 679.4
$ 728.5
$ 765.2
$ 793.4
$ 814.4
$ 829.8
$ 839.9
$ 845.3
$ 849.0
$ 848.9
$ 847.2
$ 843.3
$ 827.9
$ 819.3
$ 13,398.2
$ 769.4
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 613.1
$ 1,589.1
$ 2,814.5
$ 4,221.2
$ 5,320.2
$ 6,199.3
$ 6,853.0
$ 7,370.7
$ 7,763.2
$ 8,081.4
$ 8,315.3
$ 8,493.8
$ 8,630.5
$ 8,711.0
$ 8,761.0
$ 8,784.2
$ 8,780.9
$ 8,777.1
$ 8,603.6
$ 8,540.6
$ 137,223.8
$ 7,880.5
7% Discount Rate

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 230.5
$ 574.0
$ 979.3
$ 1,414.5
$ 1,715.2
$ 1,920.7
$ 2,044.3
$ 2,112.7
$ 2,141.4
$ 2,140.8
$ 2,118.8
$ 2,080.8
$ 2,031.3
$ 1,973.3
$ 1,909.5
$ 1,841.8
$ 1,771.8
$ 1,700.6
$ 1,606.1
$ 1,532.0
$ 33,839.4
$ 2,903.8
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 50.7
$ 126.2
$ 215.1
$ 310.5
$ 375.9
$ 420.1
$ 446.8
$ 461 .2
$ 466.3
$ 465.4
$ 459.9
$ 451.1
$ 439.5
$ 425.8
$ 411.6
$ 396.2
$ 380.7
$ 364.7
$ 344.7
$ 328.4
$ 7,340.8
$ 629.9
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 506.8
$ 1 ,264.4
$ 2,155.6
$ 3,112.2
$ 3,775.8
$ 4,235.3
$ 4,506.8
$ 4,666.1
$ 4,730.8
$ 4,740.6
$ 4,695.5
$ 4,617.0
$ 4,515.9
$ 4,387.6
$ 4,247.9
$ 4,099.9
$ 3,945.1
$ 3,796.0
$ 3,581.9
$ 3,422.7
$ 75,003.7
$ 6,436.1
                Notes:    Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005.
                         Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate.
                         Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
                Source:   Derived from Exhibit F.11a.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
  Exhibit F.11c  Mean Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-
                            Fatal Cases, at 3% Discount Rate, by System Size
                                              (All Systems)

TTHM-Alternative 3
Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Ann.
<100
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.4
$ 0.6
$ 0.8
$ 1.1
$ 1.2
$ 1.3
$ 1.4
$ 1.5
$ 1.6
$ 1.6
$ 1.6
$ 1.7
$1 7
I . /
$ 1.7
$ 1.7
$ 1.7
$ 1.7
$ 1.6
$ 25.3
$ 1.5
100-499
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ 0.7
$ 1.8
$ 3.1
$ 4.7
$ 6.4
$ 8.3
$ 9.5
$ 10.5
$ 11.3
$ 11.8
$ 12.3
$ 12.6
$ 12.8
$ 13.0
$ 13.1
$ 13.2
$ 13.2
$ 13.2
$ 13.0
$ 12.9
$ 197.4
$ 11.3
500-999
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ 0.9
$ 2.2
$ 3.9
$ 5.9
$ 8.0
$ 10.3
$ 11.9
$ 13.1
$ 14.0
$ 14.7
$ 15.3
$ 15.7
$ 16.0
$ 16.2
$ 16.3
$ 16.4
$ 16.4
$ 16.4
$ 16.1
$ 16.0
$ 245.8
$ 14.1
1,000-3,299
$
$
$
$
$
$ 3.6
$ 9.4
$ 16.7
$ 25.1
$ 34.2
$ 43.9
$ 50.8
$ 55.9
$ 59.9
$ 63.0
$ 65.3
$ 67.1
$ 68.4
$ 69.3
$ 69.9
$ 70.2
$ 70.3
$ 70.3
$ 69.0
$ 68.5
$ 1,051.0
$ 60.4
3,300-9,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 8.3
$ 21.6
$ 38.3
$ 57.4
$ 78.4
$ 100.6
$ 116.2
$ 128.1
$ 137.2
$ 144.2
$ 149.5
$ 153.6
$ 156.5
$ 158.6
$ 160.0
$ 160.7
$ 161.0
$ 160.8
$ 158.0
$ 156.8
$ 2,405.8
$ 138.2
10,000-
49,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 34.6
$ 89.5
$ 158.7
$ 238.1
$ 324.9
$ 401.3
$ 456.6
$ 498.7
$ 531.2
$ 556.1
$ 575.2
$ 589.5
$ 599.9
$ 607.2
$ 611.8
$ 614.2
$ 614.7
$ 613.7
$ 602.8
$ 597.9
$ 9,316.5
$ 535.0
50,000-
99,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 26.8
$ 69.3
$ 122.8
$ 184.3
$ 239.0
$ 278.4
$ 308.4
$ 331.5
$ 349.3
$ 363.0
$ 373.4
$ 381.1
$ 386.6
$ 390.3
$ 392.4
$ 393.3
$ 393.1
$ 391.9
$ 384.6
$ 381.1
$ 6,140.7
$ 352.6
100,000-
999,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 113.3
$ 293.2
$ 519.6
$ 779.7
$ 958.9
$ 1,093.8
$ 1,197.4
$ 1,277.6
$ 1,339.6
$ 1,387.1
$ 1,422.9
$ 1,449.2
$ 1,467.7
$ 1,479.6
$ 1,486.0
$ 1,487.9
$ 1,486.0
$ 1,480.9
$ 1,452.3
$ 1,438.7
$ 23,611.5
$ 1,356.0
>1, 000,000
$
$
$
$
$
$ 90.5
$ 234.2
$ 415.1
$ 622.8
$ 766.0
$ 873.8
$ 956.5
$ 1 ,020.6
$ 1,070.1
$ 1,108.0
$ 1,136.7
$ 1,157.7
$ 1,172.4
$ 1,181.9
$ 1,187.1
$ 1,188.6
$ 1,187.1
$ 1,183.0
$ 1,160.2
$ 1,149.2
$ 18,861.6
$ 1,083.2
Total
$
$
$
$
$
$ 278.8
$ 721.4
$ 1,278.7
$ 1,918.6
$ 2,416.8
$ 2,811.4
$ 3,108.6
$ 3,337.4
$ 3,513.9
$ 3,649.5
$ 3,752.2
$ 3,828.1
$ 3,882.0
$ 3,917.7
$ 3,938.3
$ 3,946.2
$ 3,943.6
$ 3,932.0
$ 3,857.7
$ 3,822.8
$ 61,855.7
$ 3,552.2
Notes:   Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005.
        Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate.
        Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f and E.42d.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
  Exhibit F.11d Mean Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-
                            Fatal Cases, at 7% Discount Rate, by System Size
                                              (All Systems)

  TTHM -Alternative 3
Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Ann.
<100
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.6
$ 0.7
$ 0.8
$ 0.9
$ 0.9
$ 0.9
$ 0.9
$ 0.9
$ 0.9
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 13.7
$ 1.2
100-499
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ 0.6
$ 1.4
$ 2.4
$ 3.5
$ 4.6
$ 5.6
$ 6.3
$ 6.7
$ 6.9
$ 6.9
$ 6.9
$ 6.8
$ 6.7
$ 6.6
$ 6.4
$ 6.2
$ 5.9
$ 5.7
$ 5.4
$ 5.2
$ 106.6
$ 9.1
500-999
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ 0.7
$ 1.8
$ 3.0
$ 4.3
$ 5.7
$ 7.0
$ 7.8
$ 8.3
$ 8.5
$ 8.6
$ 8.6
$ 8.5
$ 8.4
$ 8.2
$ 7.9
$ 7.7
$ 7.4
$ 7.1
$ 6.7
$ 6.4
$ 132.7
$ 11.4
1,000-3,299
$
$
$
$
$
$ 3.0
$ 7.5
$ 12.8
$ 18.5
$ 24.3
$ 30.0
$ 33.4
$ 35.4
$ 36.5
$ 36.9
$ 36.9
$ 36.5
$ 35.8
$ 34.9
$ 33.9
$ 32.8
$ 31.6
$ 30.4
$ 28.7
$ 27.5
$ 567.3
$ 48.7
3,300-9,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 6.9
$ 17.2
$ 29.3
$ 42.3
$ 55.6
$ 68.7
$ 76.4
$ 81.1
$ 83.6
$ 84.6
$ 84.4
$ 83.5
$ 81.9
$ 79.9
$ 77.6
$ 75.0
$ 72.3
$ 69.6
$ 65.8
$ 62.8
$ 1,298.5
$ 111.4
10,000-
49,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 28.6
$ 71.2
$ 121.5
$ 175.5
$ 230.6
$ 274.1
$ 300.3
$ 315.7
$ 323.7
$ 326.2
$ 324.8
$ 320.4
$ 313.9
$ 305.8
$ 296.6
$ 286.6
$ 276.2
$ 265.4
$ 250.9
$ 239.6
$ 5,047.9
$ 433.2
50,000-
99,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 22.1
$ 55.1
$ 94.1
$ 135.9
$ 169.7
$ 190.2
$ 202.8
$ 209.9
$ 212.9
$ 213.0
$ 210.9
$ 207.2
$ 202.3
$ 196.6
$ 190.3
$ 183.5
$ 176.6
$ 169.5
$ 160.1
$ 152.7
$ 3,355.2
$ 287.9
100,000-
999,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 93.7
$ 233.3
$ 398.0
$ 574.8
$ 680.6
$ 747.3
$ 787.5
$ 808.8
$ 816.3
$ 813.7
$ 803.5
$ 787.8
$ 767.9
$ 745.2
$ 720.5
$ 694.5
$ 667.7
$ 640.5
$ 604.6
$ 576.6
$ 12,962.6
$ 1,112.3
>1, 000,000
$
$
$
$
$
$ 74.8
$ 186.3
$ 317.9
$ 459.2
$ 543.7
$ 596.9
$ 629.1
$ 646.1
$ 652.1
$ 650.0
$ 641 .9
$ 629.3
$ 613.5
$ 595.3
$ 575.6
$ 554.8
$ 533.3
$ 511.6
$ 483.0
$ 460.6
$ 10,354.9
$ 888.6
Total
$
$
$
$
$
$ 230.5
$ 574.0
$ 979.3
$ 1,414.5
$ 1,715.2
$ 1,920.7
$ 2,044.3
$ 2,112.7
$ 2,141.4
$ 2,140.8
$ 2,118.8
$ 2,080.8
$ 2,031.3
$ 1 ,973.3
$ 1 ,909.5
$ 1,841.8
$ 1,771.8
$ 1 ,700.6
$ 1,606.1
$ 1 ,532.0
$ 33,839.4
$ 2,903.8
 Notes:   Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005.
         Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate.
         Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
 Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f and E.42d.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
                Section F.12
Model Outputs - Colon Cancer Sensitivity Analysis
              TTHM as Indicator
        Lymphoma for Non-Fatal Cases

-------

-------
              Exhibit F.12a  Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                                      (Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model)

TTHM -Colon Cancer Sensitivity Analysis
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Surface Water Systems
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 247.4
$ 552.0
$ 914.0
$ 1,331.0
$ 1,584.8
$ 1,804.4
$ 1,982.9
$ 2,136.4
$ 2,270.0
$ 2,387.9
$ 2,493.5
$ 2,589.2
$ 2,676.7
$ 2,757.5
$ 2,832.9
$ 2,903.5
$ 2,970.3
$ 3,033.8
$ 3,054.4
$ 3,104.5
$ 43,627.2
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 37.9
$ 84.5
$ 139.9
$ 203.7
$ 242.3
$ 275.9
$ 302.9
$ 326.2
$ 346.1
$ 363.8
$ 379.7
$ 393.8
$ 407.0
$ 419.4
$ 430.6
$ 440.7
$ 450.3
$ 459.3
$ 462.9
$ 469.8
$ 6,636.8
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 568.8
$ 1,269.6
$ 2,099.8
$ 3,057.2
$ 3,643.0
$ 4,149.9
$ 4,560.0
$ 4,917.7
$ 5,229.7
$ 5,510.7
$ 5,756.9
$ 5,978.1
$ 6,190.6
$ 6,379.2
$ 6,555.9
$ 6,719.9
$ 6,880.5
$ 7,038.3
$ 7,082.2
$ 7,205.0
$ 100,793.1
Ground Water Systems
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 119.5
$ 266.5
$ 441.3
$ 642.6
$ 813.3
$ 966.6
$ 1,071.3
$ 1,163.5
$ 1,243.7
$ 1,313.8
$ 1,376.1
$ 1,432.2
$ 1,483.3
$ 1,530.3
$ 1,573.9
$ 1,614.6
$ 1,653.1
$ 1,689.5
$ 1,701.8
$ 1,730.5
$ 23,827.5
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 18.3
$ 40.8
$ 67.5
$ 98.4
$ 124.3
$ 147.8
$ 163.7
$ 177.7
$ 189.6
$ 200.1
$ 209.5
$ 217.8
$ 225.6
$ 232.7
$ 239.3
$ 245.1
$ 250.6
$ 255.8
$ 257.9
$ 261.9
$ 3,624.4
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 274.6
$ 613.0
$ 1,013.8
$ 1,476.1
$ 1,869.6
$ 2,222.9
$ 2,463.8
$ 2,678.2
$ 2,865.4
$ 3,031.9
$ 3,177.1
$ 3,306.8
$ 3,430.6
$ 3,540.1
$ 3,642.3
$ 3,736.9
$ 3,829.1
$ 3,919.5
$ 3,946.0
$ 4,016.3
$ 55,054.0
All Systems
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 366.9
$ 818.5
$ 1,355.3
$ 1,973.6
$ 2,398.1
$ 2,771.0
$ 3,054.2
$ 3,299.8
$ 3,513.8
$ 3,701.8
$ 3,869.6
$ 4,021.4
$ 4,160.0
$ 4,287.8
$ 4,406.7
$ 4,518.2
$ 4,623.4
$ 4,723.3
$ 4,756.3
$ 4,835.0
$ 67,454.7
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 56.2
$ 125.3
$ 207.4
$ 302.1
$ 366.6
$ 423.7
$ 466.6
$ 503.9
$ 535.8
$ 563.9
$ 589.2
$ 611.6
$ 632.6
$ 652.1
$ 669.9
$ 685.8
$ 700.8
$ 715.1
$ 720.8
$ 731.7
$ 10,261.2
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 843.4
$ 1,882.7
$ 3,113.6
$ 4,533.3
$ 5,512.6
$ 6,372.8
$ 7,023.8
$ 7,595.9
$ 8,095.1
$ 8,542.6
$ 8,934.0
$ 9,285.0
$ 9,621.2
$ 9,919.3
$ 10,198.3
$ 10,456.8
$ 10,709.6
$ 10,957.8
$ 11,028.1
$ 11,221.3
$ 155,847.0
Notes:     All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
          Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
Source:    Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.43b, and E.43c.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
           Exhibit F.12b Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as
                           Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, Smoking/Lung Cancer
                                         Cessation Lag Model
                                          (All Water Systems)

          TTHM - Colon Cancer Sensitivity Analysis

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Ann.
3% Discount Rate

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 316.5
$ 685.5
$ 1,102.0
$ 1,558.0
$ 1,837.9
$ 2,061.9
$ 2,206.4
$ 2,314.4
$ 2,392.7
$ 2,447.3
$ 2,483.8
$ 2,506.0
$ 2,516.9
$ 2,518.6
$ 2,513.1
$ 2,501.6
$ 2,485.3
$ 2,465.0
$ 2,410.0
$ 2,378.5
$ 41,701.5
$ 2,394.8
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 48.4
$ 105.0
$ 168.6
$ 238.5
$ 281 .0
$ 315.3
$ 337.1
$ 353.4
$ 364.8
$ 372.8
$ 378.2
$ 381.1
$ 382.7
$ 383.1
$ 382.0
$ 379.7
$ 376.7
$ 373.2
$ 365.2
$ 359.9
$ 6,346.9
$ 364.5
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 727.5
$ 1,576.7
$ 2,531.6
$ 3,578.6
$ 4,225.0
$ 4,742.0
$ 5,074.1
$ 5,327.6
$ 5,512.4
$ 5,647.7
$ 5,734.4
$ 5,786.1
$ 5,821.0
$ 5,826.5
$ 5,815.9
$ 5,789.7
$ 5,756.9
$ 5,718.8
$ 5,587.9
$ 5,520.1
$ 96,300.5
$ 5,530.3
7% Discount Rate

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 261.6
$ 545.4
$ 844.0
$ 1,148.7
$ 1,304.4
$ 1,408.6
$ 1,451.0
$ 1,465.2
$ 1,458.1
$ 1,435.6
$ 1,402.5
$ 1,362.2
$ 1,316.9
$ 1,268.6
$ 1,218.5
$ 1,167.6
$ 1,116.6
$ 1,066.1
$ 1,003.3
$ 953.2
$ 23,198.2
$ 1,990.7
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 40.0
$ 83.5
$ 129.2
$ 175.8
$ 199.4
$ 215.4
$ 221 .7
$ 223.7
$ 222.3
$ 218.7
$ 213.6
$ 207.2
$ 200.3
$ 192.9
$ 185.2
$ 177.2
$ 169.3
$ 161.4
$ 152.0
$ 144.3
$ 3,533.1
$ 303.2
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 601.3
$ 1,254.5
$ 1,939.0
$ 2,638.4
$ 2,998.5
$ 3,239.6
$ 3,337.0
$ 3,372.6
$ 3,359.2
$ 3,313.0
$ 3,238.1
$ 3,145.1
$ 3,045.8
$ 2,934.8
$ 2,819.9
$ 2,702.2
$ 2,586.5
$ 2,473.3
$ 2,326.3
$ 2,212.2
$ 53,537.5
$ 4,594.1
          Notes:     Present values in millions of 2003 dollars.  Estimates are discounted to 2005.
                   Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate.
                   Detail may not add  exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
          Source:    Derived from Exhibit F.12a.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
   Exhibit F.12c Mean Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 3%
                                                Discount Rate, by System Size
                                                         (All Systems)

  TTHM -Colon Cancer Sensitivity Analysis
Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Ann.

<100
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.3
$ 0.7
$ 1.2
$ 1.7
$ 2.2
$ 2.7
$ 2.9
$ 3.1
$ 3.3
$ 3.4
$ 3.4
$ 3.5
$ 3.5
$ 3.5
$ 3.5
$ 3.5
$ 3.5
$ 3.5
$ 3.4
$ 3.4
$ 56.3
$ 3.2

100-499
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.5
$ 5.4
$ 8.7
$ 12.3
$ 16.1
$ 20.0
$ 21.8
$ 23.2
$ 24.3
$ 25.0
$ 25.5
$ 25.9
$ 26.1
$ 26.2
$ 26.2
$ 26.1
$ 25.9
$ 25.8
$ 25.2
$ 24.9
$ 417.0
$ 23.9

500-999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.8
$ 6.0
$ 9.6
$ 13.6
$ 17.8
$ 22.2
$ 24.1
$ 25.7
$ 26.9
$ 27.7
$ 28.3
$ 28.7
$ 28.9
$ 29.0
$ 29.0
$ 28.9
$ 28.8
$ 28.6
$ 27.9
$ 27.6
$ 462.1
$ 26.5

1,000-3,299
$
$
$
$
$
$ 9.5
$ 20.5
$ 33.0
$ 46.6
$ 61.0
$ 75.9
$ 82.5
$ 87.9
$ 91.9
$ 94.8
$ 96.8
$ 98.1
$ 98.8
$ 99.1
$ 99.1
$ 98.9
$ 98.4
$ 97.7
$ 95.6
$ 94.4
$ 1,580.5
$ 90.8

3,300-9,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 16.8
$ 36.4
$ 58.5
$ 82.7
$ 108.2
$ 134.6
$ 146.4
$ 155.9
$ 163.1
$ 168.1
$ 171.6
$ 173.9
$ 175.2
$ 175.8
$ 175.8
$ 175.3
$ 174.4
$ 173.2
$ 169.5
$ 167.4
$ 2,803.0
$ 161.0
10,000-
49,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 51.0
$ 110.5
$ 177.6
$ 251.1
$ 328.6
$ 385.4
$ 417.0
$ 441.9
$ 460.1
$ 473.0
$ 481.9
$ 487.5
$ 490.7
$ 491.9
$ 491.5
$ 489.8
$ 487.0
$ 483.4
$ 472.9
$ 467.0
$ 7,940.0
$ 456.0

50,000-99,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 32.4
$ 70.1
$ 112.7
$ 159.3
$ 193.5
$ 212.1
$ 226.9
$ 237.8
$ 245.6
$ 251.1
$ 254.7
$ 256.9
$ 257.9
$ 258.1
$ 257.5
$ 256.3
$ 254.6
$ 252.5
$ 246.8
$ 243.6
$ 4,280.0
$ 245.8
100,000-
999,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 120.7
$ 261.5
$ 420.4
$ 594.4
$ 666.2
$ 725.4
$ 770.8
$ 803.3
$ 826.5
$ 842.5
$ 852.9
$ 858.9
$ 861.4
$ 861.0
$ 858.3
$ 853.7
$ 847.6
$ 840.2
$ 821.1
$ 810.1
$ 14,497.0
$ 832.5

>1, 000,000
$
$
$
$
$
$ 80.5
$ 174.4
$ 280.3
$ 396.3
$ 444.2
$ 483.6
$ 513.9
$ 535.6
$ 551.0
$ 561.7
$ 568.7
$ 572.7
$ 574.3
$ 574.0
$ 572.2
$ 569.2
$ 565.1
$ 560.2
$ 547.5
$ 540.1
$ 9,665.6
$ 555.1

Total
$
$
$
$
$
$ 316.5
$ 685.5
$ 1,102.0
$ 1,558.0
$ 1,837.9
$ 2,061.9
$ 2,206.4
$ 2,314.4
$ 2,392.7
$ 2,447.3
$ 2,483.8
$ 2,506.0
$ 2,516.9
$ 2,518.6
$ 2,513.1
$ 2,501.6
$ 2,485.3
$ 2,465.0
$ 2,410.0
$ 2,378.5
$ 41,701.5
$ 2,394.8
  Notes:   Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005.
         Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate.
         Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
  Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f and E.43d.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
   Exhibit F.12d Mean Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTPfor Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 7%
                                                Discount Rate, by System Size
                                                        (All Systems)

 TTHM -Colon Cancer Sensitivity Analysis
Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Ann.
<100
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.3
$ 0.6
$ 0.9
$ 1.2
$ 1.5
$ 1.8
$ 1.9
$ 2.0
$ 2.0
$ 2.0
$ 1.9
$ 1.9
$ 1.8
$ 1.8
$ 1.7
$ 1.6
$ 1.6
$ 1.5
$ 1.4
$ 1.3
$ 30.9
$ 2.7
100-499
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.1
$ 4.3
$ 6.7
$ 9.1
$ 11.4
$ 13.7
$ 14.3
$ 14.7
$ 14.8
$ 14.7
$ 14.4
$ 14.1
$ 13.6
$ 13.2
$ 12.7
$ 12.2
$ 11.7
$ 11.1
$ 10.5
$ 10.0
$ 229.1
$ 19.7
500-999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.3
$ 4.8
$ 7.4
$ 10.1
$ 12.7
$ 15.2
$ 15.9
$ 16.3
$ 16.4
$ 16.3
$ 16.0
$ 15.6
$ 15.1
$ 14.6
$ 14.1
$ 13.5
$ 12.9
$ 12.4
$ 11.6
$ 11.1
$ 253.9
$ 21.8
1,000-3,299
$
$
$
$
$
$ 7.8
$ 16.3
$ 25.3
$ 34.4
$ 43.3
$ 51.8
$ 54.3
$ 55.6
$ 56.0
$ 55.6
$ 54.6
$ 53.3
$ 51.7
$ 49.9
$ 48.1
$ 46.1
$ 44.2
$ 42.2
$ 39.8
$ 37.8
$ 868.4
$ 74.5
3,300-9,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 13.9
$ 29.0
$ 44.8
$ 61.0
$ 76.8
$ 91.9
$ 96.3
$ 98.7
$ 99.4
$ 98.6
$ 96.9
$ 94.5
$ 91.7
$ 88.6
$ 85.3
$ 81.8
$ 78.4
$ 74.9
$ 70.6
$ 67.1
$ 1,540.0
$ 132.2
10,000-
49,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 42.2
$ 87.9
$ 136.0
$ 185.1
$ 233.2
$ 263.3
$ 274.3
$ 279.7
$ 280.4
$ 277.5
$ 272.1
$ 265.0
$ 256.8
$ 247.8
$ 238.3
$ 228.6
$ 218.8
$ 209.1
$ 196.9
$ 187.2
$ 4,380.1
$ 375.9
50,000-99,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 26.7
$ 55.8
$ 86.3
$ 117.4
$ 137.3
$ 144.9
$ 149.2
$ 150.6
$ 149.7
$ 147.3
$ 143.8
$ 139.6
$ 135.0
$ 130.0
$ 124.8
$ 119.6
$ 114.4
$ 109.2
$ 102.8
$ 97.6
$ 2,381.9
$ 204.4
100,000-
999,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 99.8
$ 208.1
$ 322.0
$ 438.2
$ 472.8
$ 495.6
$ 506.9
$ 508.6
$ 503.7
$ 494.2
$ 481.6
$ 466.9
$ 450.7
$ 433.7
$ 416.1
$ 398.4
$ 380.8
$ 363.4
$ 341.8
$ 324.6
$ 8,108.0
$ 695.8
>1, 000,000
$
$
$
$
$
$ 66.5
$ 138.7
$ 214.7
$ 292.2
$ 315.3
$ 330.4
$ 338.0
$ 339.1
$ 335.8
$ 329.5
$ 321.1
$ 311.3
$ 300.5
$ 289.1
$ 277.5
$ 265.7
$ 253.9
$ 242.3
$ 227.9
$ 216.5
$ 5,405.9
$ 463.9
Total
$
$
$
$
$
$ 261.6
$ 545.4
$ 844.0
$ 1,148.7
$ 1,304.4
$ 1,408.6
$ 1,451.0
$ 1,465.2
$ 1,458.1
$ 1,435.6
$ 1,402.5
$ 1,362.2
$ 1,316.9
$ 1,268.6
$ 1,218.5
$ 1,167.6
$ 1,116.6
$ 1,066.1
$ 1,003.3
$ 953.2
$ 23,198.2
$ 1,990.7
 Notes:  Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005.
        Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate.
        Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
 Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f and E.43d.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
                 Section F.13
Model Outputs - Colon Cancer Sensitivity Analysis
              TTHM as Indicator
         Bronchitis for Non-Fatal Cases

-------

-------
               Exhibit F.13a Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                                      (Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model)
TTHM -Colon Cancer Sensitivity Analysis
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Surface Water Systems
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 122.2
$ 272.9
$ 452.2
$ 658.9
$ 785.1
$ 894.6
$ 983.8
$ 1,060.8
$ 1,128.0
$ 1,187.6
$ 1,241.1
$ 1,289.8
$ 1,334.5
$ 1,375.9
$ 1,414.7
$ 1,451.2
$ 1,485.9
$ 1,519.0
$ 1,528.8
$ 1,554.9
$ 21,741.9
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 26.9
$ 60.0
$ 99.3
$ 144.7
$ 172.0
$ 195.7
$ 215.0
$ 231.6
$ 245.6
$ 258.2
$ 269.4
$ 279.6
$ 288.7
$ 296.9
$ 305.0
$ 312.2
$ 319.2
$ 325.8
$ 328.1
$ 333.3
$ 4,707.1
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 268.8
$ 601.0
$ 995.2
$ 1,449.7
$ 1,728.3
$ 1,972.7
$ 2,168.8
$ 2,342.8
$ 2,492.2
$ 2,629.8
$ 2,750.4
$ 2,861.7
$ 2,966.8
$ 3,059.3
$ 3,147.1
$ 3,230.4
$ 3,308.6
$ 3,390.7
$ 3,409.6
$ 3,473.9
$ 48,247.8
Ground Water Systems
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 59.0
$ 131.7
$ 218.3
$ 318.1
$ 402.9
$ 479.2
$ 531.6
$ 577.7
$ 618.1
$ 653.4
$ 684.9
$ 713.4
$ 739.5
$ 763.6
$ 786.0
$ 807.0
$ 826.9
$ 845.9
$ 851.8
$ 866.7
$ 11,875.9
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 13.0
$ 29.0
$ 47.9
$ 69.8
$ 88.3
$ 104.8
$ 116.2
$ 126.1
$ 134.6
$ 142.1
$ 148.7
$ 154.6
$ 160.0
$ 164.7
$ 169.4
$ 173.6
$ 177.7
$ 181.4
$ 182.8
$ 185.8
$ 2,570.5
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 129.8
$ 290.2
$ 480.5
$ 699.9
$ 886.9
$ 1,056.7
$ 1,171.8
$ 1,275.9
$ 1,365.5
$ 1,446.9
$ 1,517.9
$ 1,583.0
$ 1,644.1
$ 1,697.8
$ 1,748.5
$ 1,796.4
$ 1,841.3
$ 1,888.2
$ 1,899.8
$ 1,936.4
$ 26,357.3
All Systems
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 181.2
$ 404.6
$ 670.5
$ 977.0
$ 1,188.0
$ 1,373.8
$ 1,515.4
$ 1,638.5
$ 1,746.1
$ 1,841.0
$ 1,926.0
$ 2,003.2
$ 2,074.0
$ 2,139.5
$ 2,200.7
$ 2,258.3
$ 2,312.9
$ 2,364.9
$ 2,380.7
$ 2,421.7
$ 33,617.7
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 39.9
$ 89.0
$ 147.3
$ 214.5
$ 260.3
$ 300.5
$ 331.2
$ 357.7
$ 380.2
$ 400.2
$ 418.0
$ 434.2
$ 448.7
$ 461.6
$ 474.4
$ 485.8
$ 496.9
$ 507.2
$ 510.9
$ 519.0
$ 7,277.6
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 398.5
$ 891.2
$ 1,475.7
$ 2,149.6
$ 2,615.2
$ 3,029.3
$ 3,340.6
$ 3,618.7
$ 3,857.6
$ 4,076.7
$ 4,268.4
$ 4,444.7
$ 4,610.8
$ 4,757.1
$ 4,895.5
$ 5,026.9
$ 5,149.9
$ 5,279.0
$ 5,309.4
$ 5,410.3
$ 74,605.2
Notes:     All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
          Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
Source:    Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.43b, and E.43c.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
            Exhibit F.13b Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Bronchitis as
                            Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, Smoking/Lung Cancer
                                          Cessation Lag Model
                                          (All Water Systems)

         TTHM - Colon Cancer Sensitivity Analysis

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Ann.
3% Discount Rate

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 156.3
$ 338.9
$ 545.1
$ 771 .3
$ 910.5
$ 1 ,022.2
$ 1 ,094.7
$ 1,149.2
$ 1,189.0
$ 1,217.1
$ 1 ,236.2
$ 1 ,248.3
$ 1 ,254.8
$ 1 ,256.7
$ 1 ,255.0
$ 1 ,250.3
$ 1 ,243.3
$ 1 ,234.2
$ 1 ,206.3
$ 1,191.3
$ 20,770.9
$ 1,192.8
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 34.4
$ 74.5
$ 119.7
$ 169.3
$ 199.5
$ 223.6
$ 239.3
$ 250.9
$ 258.9
$ 264.6
$ 268.3
$ 270.6
$ 271.5
$ 271.1
$ 270.5
$ 269.0
$ 267.1
$ 264.7
$ 258.9
$ 255.3
$ 4,501.9
$ 258.5
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 343.8
$ 746.4
$ 1,199.9
$ 1 ,696.9
$ 2,004.4
$ 2,254.1
$ 2,413.4
$ 2,538.1
$ 2,626.8
$ 2,695.1
$ 2,739.7
$ 2,769.8
$ 2,789.6
$ 2,794.3
$ 2,791.9
$ 2,783.2
$ 2,768.3
$ 2,755.0
$ 2,690.2
$ 2,661.5
$ 46,062.5
$ 2,645.3
7% Discount Rate

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 129.2
$ 269.6
$ 417.5
$ 568.6
$ 646.2
$ 698.4
$ 719.9
$ 727.5
$ 724.6
$ 714.0
$ 698.1
$ 678.6
$ 656.6
$ 633.0
$ 608.5
$ 583.6
$ 558.6
$ 533.8
$ 502.2
$ 477.4
$ 11,545.8
$ 990.8
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 28.4
$ 59.3
$ 91.7
$ 124.8
$ 141.6
$ 152.8
$ 157.3
$ 158.8
$ 157.8
$ 155.2
$ 151.5
$ 147.1
$ 142.0
$ 136.6
$ 131.2
$ 125.5
$ 120.0
$ 114.5
$ 107.8
$ 102.3
$ 2,506.3
$ 215.1
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 284.1
$ 593.9
$ 919.0
$ 1,251.1
$ 1 ,422.5
$ 1 ,540.0
$ 1,587.1
$ 1 ,606.7
$ 1 ,600.8
$ 1 ,581 .0
$ 1 ,547.0
$ 1 ,505.6
$ 1 ,459.7
$ 1 ,407.4
$ 1 ,353.7
$ 1 ,299.0
$ 1 ,243.8
$ 1,191.5
$ 1,120.0
$ 1 ,066.6
$ 25,580.6
$ 2,195.1
         Notes:    Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005.
                  Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate.
                  Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
         Source:   Derived from Exhibit F.13a.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
  Exhibit F.13c Mean Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases,
                                         at 3% Discount Rate, by System Size
                                                     (All Systems)

 TTHM - Colon Cancer Sensitivity Analysis
Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Ann.
<100
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.4
$ 0.6
$ 0.8
$ 1.1
$ 1.3
$ 1.5
$ 1.6
$ 1.6
$ 1.7
$ 1.7
$ 1.7
$ 1.8
$ 1.8
$ 1.8
$ 1.8
$ 1.8
$ 1.7
$ 1.7
$ 1.7
$ 28.0
$ 1.6
100499
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.2
$ 2.7
$ 4.3
$ 6.1
$ 8.0
$ 9.9
$ 10.8
$ 11.5
$ 12.1
$ 12.4
$ 12.7
$ 12.9
$ 13.0
$ 13.1
$ 13.1
$ 13.0
$ 13.0
$ 12.9
$ 12.6
$ 12.5
$ 207.7
$ 11.9
500-999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.4
$ 3.0
$ 4.8
$ 6.7
$ 8.8
$ 11.0
$ 12.0
$ 12.8
$ 13.4
$ 13.8
$ 14.1
$ 14.3
$ 14.4
$ 14.5
$ 14.5
$ 14.4
$ 14.4
$ 14.3
$ 14.0
$ 13.8
$ 230.2
$ 13.2
1,000-3,299
$
$
$
$
$
$ 4.7
$ 10.1
$ 16.3
$ 23.1
$ 30.2
$ 37.6
$ 41.0
$ 43.6
$ 45.7
$ 47.1
$ 48.2
$ 48.8
$ 49.3
$ 49.5
$ 49.5
$ 49.4
$ 49.2
$ 48.9
$ 47.8
$ 47.3
$ 787.4
$ 45.2
3,300-9,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 8.3
$ 18.0
$ 28.9
$ 40.9
$ 53.6
$ 66.7
$ 72.6
$ 77.4
$ 81.0
$ 83.6
$ 85.4
$ 86.6
$ 87.4
$ 87.7
$ 87.8
$ 87.6
$ 87.3
$ 86.7
$ 84.8
$ 83.9
$ 1,396.4
$ 80.2
10,000-
49,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 25.2
$ 54.6
$ 87.9
$ 124.3
$ 162.8
$ 191.1
$ 206.9
$ 219.4
$ 228.7
$ 235.3
$ 239.8
$ 242.9
$ 244.6
$ 245.4
$ 245.4
$ 244.8
$ 243.6
$ 242.1
$ 236.7
$ 233.9
$ 3,955.4
$ 227.2
50,000-
99,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 16.0
$ 34.6
$ 55.7
$ 78.8
$ 95.9
$ 105.2
$ 112.6
$ 118.1
$ 122.1
$ 124.9
$ 126.8
$ 128.0
$ 128.6
$ 128.8
$ 128.6
$ 128.1
$ 127.3
$ 126.4
$ 123.5
$ 122.0
$ 2,131.8
$ 122.4
100,000-
999,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 59.6
$ 129.3
$ 208.0
$ 294.3
$ 330.1
$ 359.6
$ 382.4
$ 398.9
$ 410.7
$ 419.0
$ 424.5
$ 427.9
$ 429.4
$ 429.6
$ 428.6
$ 426.7
$ 424.0
$ 420.7
$ 411.0
$ 405.7
$ 7,220.0
$ 414.6
>1, 000,000
$
$
$
$
$
$ 39.8
$ 86.2
$ 138.7
$ 196.2
$ 220.1
$ 239.8
$ 255.0
$ 266.0
$ 273.8
$ 279.4
$ 283.0
$ 285.3
$ 286.3
$ 286.4
$ 285.8
$ 284.5
$ 282.7
$ 280.5
$ 274.0
$ 270.5
$ 4,813.8
$ 276.4
Total
$
$
$
$
$
$ 156.3
$ 338.9
$ 545.1
$ 771 .3
$ 910.5
$ 1,022.2
$ 1,094.7
$ 1,149.2
$ 1,189.0
$ 1,217.1
$ 1,236.2
$ 1,248.3
$ 1,254.8
$ 1,256.7
$ 1,255.0
$ 1,250.3
$ 1,243.3
$ 1,234.2
$ 1,206.3
$ 1,191.3
$ 20,770.9
$ 1,192.8
 Notes:  Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005.
        Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate.
        Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
 Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f and E.43d.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
   Exhibit F.13d  Mean Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at
                                            7% Discount Rate, by System Size
                                                       (All Systems)

 TTHM - Colon Cancer Sensitivity Analysis
Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Ann.
<100
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.6
$ 0.8
$ 0.9
$ 1.0
$ 1.0
$ 1.0
$ 1.0
$ 1.0
$ 0.9
$ 0.9
$ 0.9
$ 0.9
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 15.4
$ 1.3
100-499
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.0
$ 2.1
$ 3.3
$ 4.5
$ 5.7
$ 6.8
$ 7.1
$ 7.3
$ 7.3
$ 7.3
$ 7.2
$ 7.0
$ 6.8
$ 6.6
$ 6.3
$ 6.1
$ 5.8
$ 5.6
$ 5.3
$ 5.0
$ 114.1
$ 9.8
500-999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.1
$ 2.4
$ 3.7
$ 5.0
$ 6.3
$ 7.5
$ 7.9
$ 8.1
$ 8.1
$ 8.1
$ 8.0
$ 7.8
$ 7.5
$ 7.3
$ 7.0
$ 6.7
$ 6.5
$ 6.2
$ 5.8
$ 5.5
$ 126.4
$ 10.8
1,000-3,299
$
$
$
$
$
$ 3.9
$ 8.1
$ 12.5
$ 17.0
$ 21.5
$ 25.7
$ 26.9
$ 27.6
$ 27.8
$ 27.7
$ 27.2
$ 26.6
$ 25.8
$ 24.9
$ 24.0
$ 23.1
$ 22.1
$ 21.1
$ 19.9
$ 19.0
$ 432.3
$ 37.1
3,300-9,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 6.9
$ 14.3
$ 22.2
$ 30.2
$ 38.1
$ 45.6
$ 47.8
$ 49.0
$ 49.4
$ 49.0
$ 48.2
$ 47.1
$ 45.7
$ 44.2
$ 42.6
$ 40.9
$ 39.2
$ 37.5
$ 35.3
$ 33.6
$ 766.7
$ 65.8
10,000-49,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 20.8
$ 43.4
$ 67.3
$ 91.6
$ 115.5
$ 130.5
$ 136.1
$ 138.9
$ 139.3
$ 138.0
$ 135.4
$ 132.0
$ 128.0
$ 123.6
$ 119.0
$ 114.3
$ 109.5
$ 104.7
$ 98.6
$ 93.7
$ 2,180.4
$ 187.1
50,000-
99,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 13.2
$ 27.6
$ 42.7
$ 58.1
$ 68.0
$ 71.8
$ 74.0
$ 74.8
$ 74.4
$ 73.2
$ 71.6
$ 69.6
$ 67.3
$ 64.9
$ 62.3
$ 59.8
$ 57.2
$ 54.7
$ 51.4
$ 48.9
$ 1,185.5
$ 101.7
100,000-
999,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 49.3
$ 102.9
$ 159.3
$ 216.9
$ 234.2
$ 245.7
$ 251.5
$ 252.5
$ 250.3
$ 245.8
$ 239.7
$ 232.6
$ 224.7
$ 216.4
$ 207.8
$ 199.2
$ 190.5
$ 181.9
$ 171.1
$ 162.6
$ 4,034.9
$ 346.2
>1, 000,000
$
$
$
$
$
$ 32.9
$ 68.6
$ 106.2
$ 144.6
$ 156.2
$ 163.8
$ 167.7
$ 168.4
$ 166.9
$ 163.9
$ 159.8
$ 155.1
$ 149.8
$ 144.3
$ 138.6
$ 132.8
$ 127.0
$ 121.3
$ 114.1
$ 108.4
$ 2,690.2
$ 230.8
Total
$
$
$
$
$
$ 129.2
$ 269.6
$ 417.5
$ 568.6
$ 646.2
$ 698.4
$ 719.9
$ 727.5
$ 724.6
$ 714.0
$ 698.1
$ 678.6
$ 656.6
$ 633.0
$ 608.5
$ 583.6
$ 558.6
$ 533.8
$ 502.2
$ 477.4
$ 11,545.8
$ 990.8
 Notes:   Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005.
         Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate.
         Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
 Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f and E.43d.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
                 Section F.14
Model Outputs - Rectal Cancer Sensitivity Analysis
              TTHM as Indicator
        Lymphoma for Non-Fatal Cases

-------

-------
        Exhibit F.14a Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                               (Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model)

TTHM - Rectal Cancer Sensitivity Analysis
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Surface Water Systems
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 84.6
$ 188.7
$ 312.4
$ 454.9
$ 541.7
$ 616.7
$ 677.7
$ 730.2
$ 775.9
$ 816.2
$ 852.3
$ 885.0
$ 914.9
$ 942.5
$ 968.2
$ 992.4
$ 1,015.2
$ 1,036.9
$ 1,044.0
$ 1,061.1
$ 14,911.5
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 12.9
$ 28.9
$ 47.8
$ 69.6
$ 82.8
$ 94.3
$ 103.5
$ 111.5
$ 118.3
$ 124.3
$ 129.8
$ 134.6
$ 139.1
$ 143.3
$ 147.2
$ 150.6
$ 153.9
$ 157.0
$ 158.2
$ 160.6
$ 2,268.4
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 194.4
$ 434.0
$ 717.7
$ 1,044.9
$ 1,245.2
$ 1,418.4
$ 1,558.6
$ 1,680.8
$ 1,787.5
$ 1,883.5
$ 1,967.7
$ 2,043.3
$ 2,115.9
$ 2,180.4
$ 2,240.8
$ 2,296.8
$ 2,351.7
$ 2,405.7
$ 2,420.6
$ 2,462.6
$ 34,450.4
Ground Water Systems
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 40.8
$ 91.1
$ 150.8
$ 219.6
$ 278.0
$ 330.4
$ 366.2
$ 397.7
$ 425.1
$ 449.1
$ 470.3
$ 489.5
$ 507.0
$ 523.0
$ 537.9
$ 551.9
$ 565.0
$ 577.4
$ 581.7
$ 591.5
$ 8,144.1
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 6.3
$ 13.9
$ 23.1
$ 33.6
$ 42.5
$ 50.5
$ 55.9
$ 60.7
$ 64.8
$ 68.4
$ 71.6
$ 74.5
$ 77.1
$ 79.6
$ 81.8
$ 83.8
$ 85.6
$ 87.4
$ 88.1
$ 89.5
$ 1,238.8
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 93.9
$ 209.5
$ 346.5
$ 504.5
$ 639.0
$ 759.8
$ 842.1
$ 915.4
$ 979.4
$ 1,036.3
$ 1,085.9
$ 1,130.3
$ 1,172.5
$ 1,210.0
$ 1,244.9
$ 1,277.3
$ 1,308.8
$ 1,339.6
$ 1,348.7
$ 1,372.7
$ 18,817.1
All Systems
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 125.4
$ 279.8
$ 463.2
$ 674.6
$ 819.6
$ 947.1
$ 1,043.9
$ 1,127.9
$ 1,201.0
$ 1,265.2
$ 1,322.6
$ 1,374.5
$ 1,421.9
$ 1,465.5
$ 1,506.2
$ 1,544.3
$ 1,580.2
$ 1,614.4
$ 1,625.7
$ 1,652.6
$ 23,055.6
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 19.2
$ 42.8
$ 70.9
$ 103.3
$ 125.3
$ 144.8
$ 159.5
$ 172.2
$ 183.1
$ 192.7
$ 201.4
$ 209.1
$ 216.2
$ 222.9
$ 229.0
$ 234.4
$ 239.5
$ 244.4
$ 246.4
$ 250.1
$ 3,507.2
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 288.3
$ 643.5
$ 1,064.2
$ 1,549.4
$ 1,884.2
$ 2,178.2
$ 2,400.7
$ 2,596.2
$ 2,766.8
$ 2,919.8
$ 3,053.6
$ 3,173.5
$ 3,288.5
$ 3,390.3
$ 3,485.7
$ 3,574.1
$ 3,660.5
$ 3,745.3
$ 3,769.3
$ 3,835.4
$ 53,267.5
Notes:     All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
          Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
Source:    Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.44b, and E.44c.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
                   Exhibit F.14b Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for
                    Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, Smoking/Lung Cancer
                                         Cessation Lag Model
                                          (All Water Systems)

               TTHM - Rectal Cancer Sensitivity Analysis

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Ann.
3% Discount Rate

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 108.2
$ 234.3
$ 376.7
$ 532.5
$ 628.2
$ 704.7
$ 754.1
$ 791.1
$ 817.8
$ 836.5
$ 848.9
$ 856.5
$ 860.2
$ 860.9
$ 859.0
$ 855.0
$ 849.5
$ 842.5
$ 823.7
$ 813.0
$ 14,253.3
$ 818.5
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 16.6
$ 35.9
$ 57.6
$ 81.5
$ 96.0
$ 107.8
$ 115.2
$ 120.8
$ 124.7
$ 127.4
$ 129.3
$ 130.3
$ 130.8
$ 130.9
$ 130.6
$ 129.8
$ 128.8
$ 127.6
$ 124.8
$ 123.0
$ 2,169.3
$ 124.6
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 248.7
$ 538.9
$ 865.3
$ 1,223.1
$ 1,444.1
$ 1 ,620.8
$ 1 ,734.3
$ 1 ,820.9
$ 1,884.1
$ 1 ,930.3
$ 1 ,960.0
$ 1 ,977.6
$ 1 ,989.6
$ 1,991.5
$ 1 ,987.8
$ 1 ,978.9
$ 1 ,967.7
$ 1 ,954.6
$ 1 ,909.9
$ 1 ,886.7
$ 32,914.9
$ 1,890.2
7% Discount Rate

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 89.4
$ 186.4
$ 288.5
$ 392.6
$ 445.8
$ 481.5
$ 496.0
$ 500.8
$ 498.4
$ 490.7
$ 479.4
$ 465.6
$ 450.1
$ 433.6
$ 416.5
$ 399.1
$ 381.7
$ 364.4
$ 342.9
$ 325.8
$ 7,929.0
$ 680.4
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 13.7
$ 28.5
$ 44.1
$ 60.1
$ 68.2
$ 73.6
$ 75.8
$ 76.5
$ 76.0
$ 74.7
$ 73.0
$ 70.8
$ 68.4
$ 65.9
$ 63.3
$ 60.6
$ 57.9
$ 55.2
$ 52.0
$ 49.3
$ 1,207.6
$ 103.6
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 205.5
$ 428.8
$ 662.7
$ 901.8
$ 1,024.9
$ 1,107.3
$ 1,140.5
$ 1,152.7
$ 1,148.1
$ 1,132.3
$ 1,106.8
$ 1,075.0
$ 1,041.0
$ 1,003.1
$ 963.8
$ 923.6
$ 884.0
$ 845.4
$ 795.1
$ 756.1
$ 18,298.7
$ 1,570.2
               Notes:     Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005.
                        Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate.
                        Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
               Source:    Derived from Exhibit F.14a.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
   Exhibit F.14c  Mean Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-
                             Fatal Cases, at 3% Discount Rate, by System Size
                                               (All Systems)

 TTHM - Rectal Cancer Sensitivity Analysis
Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Ann.
<100
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.4
$ 0.6
$ 0.7
$ 0.9
$ 1.0
$ 1.1
$ 1.1
$ 1.2
$ 1.2
$ 1.2
$ 1.2
$ 1.2
$ 1.2
$ 1.2
$ 1.2
$ 1.2
$ 1.2
$ 1.1
$ 19.2
$ 1.1
100-499
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ 0.9
$ 1.9
$ 3.0
$ 4.2
$ 5.5
$ 6.8
$ 7.4
$ 7.9
$ 8.3
$ 8.5
$ 8.7
$ 8.8
$ 8.9
$ 8.9
$ 8.9
$ 8.9
$ 8.9
$ 8.8
$ 8.6
$ 8.5
$ 142.5
$ 8.2
500-999
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ 0.9
$ 2.1
$ 3.3
$ 4.7
$ 6.1
$ 7.6
$ 8.2
$ 8.8
$ 9.2
$ 9.5
$ 9.7
$ 9.8
$ 9.9
$ 9.9
$ 9.9
$ 9.9
$ 9.8
$ 9.8
$ 9.6
$ 9.4
$ 157.9
$ 9.1
1,000-3,299
$
$
$
$
$
$ 3.2
$ 7.0
$ 11.3
$ 15.9
$ 20.9
$ 25.9
$ 28.2
$ 30.0
$ 31.4
$ 32.4
$ 33.1
$ 33.5
$ 33.8
$ 33.9
$ 33.9
$ 33.8
$ 33.6
$ 33.4
$ 32.7
$ 32.3
$ 540.2
$ 31.0
3,300-9,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 5.7
$ 12.4
$ 20.0
$ 28.3
$ 37.0
$ 46.0
$ 50.0
$ 53.3
$ 55.7
$ 57.5
$ 58.7
$ 59.4
$ 59.9
$ 60.1
$ 60.1
$ 59.9
$ 59.6
$ 59.2
$ 57.9
$ 57.2
$ 958.0
$ 55.0
10,000-49,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 17.4
$ 37.8
$ 60.7
$ 85.8
$ 112.3
$ 131.7
$ 142.5
$ 151.0
$ 157.3
$ 161.7
$ 164.7
$ 166.6
$ 167.7
$ 168.1
$ 168.0
$ 167.4
$ 166.5
$ 165.2
$ 161.7
$ 159.6
$ 2,713.8
$ 155.9
50,000-
99,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 11.1
$ 24.0
$ 38.5
$ 54.4
$ 66.1
$ 72.5
$ 77.5
$ 81.3
$ 84.0
$ 85.8
$ 87.1
$ 87.8
$ 88.2
$ 88.2
$ 88.0
$ 87.6
$ 87.0
$ 86.3
$ 84.4
$ 83.2
$ 1,462.9
$ 84.0
100,000-
999,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 41.3
$ 89.4
$ 143.7
$ 203.2
$ 227.7
$ 247.9
$ 263.5
$ 274.6
$ 282.5
$ 288.0
$ 291 .5
$ 293.6
$ 294.4
$ 294.3
$ 293.3
$ 291 .8
$ 289.7
$ 287.2
$ 280.6
$ 276.9
$ 4,955.0
$ 284.6
>1,000,000
$
$
$
$
$
$ 27.5
$ 59.6
$ 95.8
$ 135.5
$ 151.8
$ 165.3
$ 175.7
$ 183.1
$ 188.3
$ 192.0
$ 194.4
$ 195.7
$ 196.3
$ 196.2
$ 195.6
$ 194.5
$ 193.2
$ 191.5
$ 187.1
$ 184.6
$ 3,303.6
$ 189.7
Total
$
$
$
$
$
$ 108.2
$ 234.3
$ 376.7
$ 532.5
$ 628.2
$ 704.7
$ 754.1
$ 791.1
$ 817.8
$ 836.5
$ 848.9
$ 856.5
$ 860.2
$ 860.9
$ 859.0
$ 855.0
$ 849.5
$ 842.5
$ 823.7
$ 813.0
$ 14,253.3
$ 818.5
 Notes:   Present values in millions of 2003 dollars.  Estimates are discounted to 2005.
        Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate.
        Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
 Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f and E.44d.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
 Exhibit F.14d Mean Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-
                            Fatal Cases, at 7% Discount Rate, by System Size
                                              (All Systems)

TTHM - Rectal Cancer Sensitivity Analysis
Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Ann.
<100
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.6
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 10.6
$ 0.9
100-499
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ 0.7
$ 1.5
$ 2.3
$ 3.1
$ 3.9
$ 4.7
$ 4.9
$ 5.0
$ 5.1
$ 5.0
$ 4.9
$ 4.8
$ 4.7
$ 4.5
$ 4.3
$ 4.2
$ 4.0
$ 3.8
$ 3.6
$ 3.4
$ 78.3
$ 6.7
500-999
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ 0.8
$ 1.6
$ 2.5
$ 3.4
$ 4.3
$ 5.2
$ 5.4
$ 5.6
$ 5.6
$ 5.6
$ 5.5
$ 5.3
$ 5.2
$ 5.0
$ 4.8
$ 4.6
$ 4.4
$ 4.2
$ 4.0
$ 3.8
$ 86.8
$ 7.4
1,000-3,299
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.7
$ 5.6
$ 8.6
$ 11.8
$ 14.8
$ 17.7
$ 18.6
$ 19.0
$ 19.1
$ 19.0
$ 18.7
$ 18.2
$ 17.7
$ 17.1
$ 16.4
$ 15.8
$ 15.1
$ 14.4
$ 13.6
$ 12.9
$ 296.8
$ 25.5
3,300-9,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 4.7
$ 9.9
$ 15.3
$ 20.8
$ 26.3
$ 31.4
$ 32.9
$ 33.7
$ 34.0
$ 33.7
$ 33.1
$ 32.3
$ 31.3
$ 30.3
$ 29.1
$ 28.0
$ 26.8
$ 25.6
$ 24.1
$ 22.9
$ 526.4
$ 45.2
10,000-
49,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 14.4
$ 30.0
$ 46.5
$ 63.3
$ 79.7
$ 90.0
$ 93.7
$ 95.6
$ 95.8
$ 94.8
$ 93.0
$ 90.6
$ 87.8
$ 84.7
$ 81.5
$ 78.1
$ 74.8
$ 71.5
$ 67.3
$ 64.0
$ 1,497.1
$ 128.5
50,000-
99,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 9.1
$ 19.1
$ 29.5
$ 40.1
$ 46.9
$ 49.5
$ 51.0
$ 51.5
$ 51.2
$ 50.3
$ 49.2
$ 47.7
$ 46.1
$ 44.4
$ 42.7
$ 40.9
$ 39.1
$ 37.3
$ 35.1
$ 33.4
$ 814.1
$ 69.9
100,000-
999,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 34.1
$ 71.1
$ 110.1
$ 149.8
$ 161.6
$ 169.4
$ 173.3
$ 173.8
$ 172.1
$ 168.9
$ 164.6
$ 159.6
$ 154.0
$ 148.2
$ 142.2
$ 136.2
$ 130.2
$ 124.2
$ 116.8
$ 111.0
$ 2,771.3
$ 237.8
>1, 000,000
$
$
$
$
$
$ 22.7
$ 47.4
$ 73.4
$ 99.9
$ 107.8
$ 112.9
$ 115.5
$ 115.9
$ 114.8
$ 112.6
$ 109.8
$ 106.4
$ 102.7
$ 98.8
$ 94.8
$ 90.8
$ 86.8
$ 82.8
$ 77.9
$ 74.0
$ 1,847.7
$ 158.6
Total
$
$
$
$
$
$ 89.4
$ 186.4
$ 288.5
$ 392.6
$ 445.8
$ 481 .5
$ 496.0
$ 500.8
$ 498.4
$ 490.7
$ 479.4
$ 465.6
$ 450.1
$ 433.6
$ 416.5
$ 399.1
$ 381 .7
$ 364.4
$ 342.9
$ 325.8
$ 7,929.0
$ 680.4
Notes:  Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005.
       Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate.
       Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and E.44d.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
                 Section F.15
Model Outputs - Rectal Cancer Sensitivity Analysis
               TTHM as Indicator
         Bronchitis for Non-Fatal Cases

-------

-------
        Exhibit F.15a Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                                (Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model)

TTHM - Rectal Cancer Sensitivity Analysis
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Surface Water Systems
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 41.8
$ 93.3
$ 154.5
$ 225.2
$ 268.3
$ 305.8
$ 336.3
$ 362.6
$ 385.6
$ 405.9
$ 424.2
$ 440.8
$ 456.1
$ 470.3
$ 483.5
$ 496.0
$ 507.9
$ 519.2
$ 522.5
$ 531.5
$ 7,431.2
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 9.2
$ 20.5
$ 33.9
$ 49.4
$ 58.8
$ 66.9
$ 73.5
$ 79.1
$ 84.0
$ 88.2
$ 92.1
$ 95.6
$ 98.7
$ 101.5
$ 104.2
$ 106.7
$ 109.1
$ 111.4
$ 112.1
$ 113.9
$ 1,608.9
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 91.9
$ 205.4
$ 340.2
$ 495.5
$ 590.7
$ 674.2
$ 741.3
$ 800.8
$ 851.8
$ 898.8
$ 940.1
$ 978.1
$ 1,014.0
$ 1,045.7
$ 1,075.7
$ 1,104.1
$ 1,130.9
$ 1,158.9
$ 1,165.4
$ 1,187.4
$ 16,490.8
Ground Water Systems
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 20.2
$ 45.0
$ 74.6
$ 108.7
$ 137.7
$ 163.8
$ 181.7
$ 197.5
$ 211.2
$ 223.3
$ 234.1
$ 243.8
$ 252.8
$ 261.0
$ 268.6
$ 275.8
$ 282.6
$ 289.1
$ 291.1
$ 296.2
$ 4,059.1
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 4.4
$ 9.9
$ 16.4
$ 23.9
$ 30.2
$ 35.8
$ 39.7
$ 43.1
$ 46.0
$ 48.6
$ 50.8
$ 52.9
$ 54.7
$ 56.3
$ 57.9
$ 59.3
$ 60.7
$ 62.0
$ 62.5
$ 63.5
$ 878.6
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 44.4
$ 99.2
$ 164.2
$ 239.2
$ 303.2
$ 361.2
$ 400.5
$ 436.1
$ 466.7
$ 494.5
$ 518.8
$ 541.1
$ 561.9
$ 580.3
$ 597.6
$ 614.0
$ 629.3
$ 645.4
$ 649.3
$ 661.9
$ 9,008.8
All Systems
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 61.9
$ 138.3
$ 229.2
$ 333.9
$ 406.1
$ 469.6
$ 517.9
$ 560.0
$ 596.8
$ 629.2
$ 658.3
$ 684.7
$ 708.9
$ 731.3
$ 752.2
$ 771.9
$ 790.5
$ 808.3
$ 813.7
$ 827.7
$ 11,490.3
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 13.6
$ 30.4
$ 50.3
$ 73.3
$ 89.0
$ 102.7
$ 113.2
$ 122.2
$ 130.0
$ 136.8
$ 142.9
$ 148.4
$ 153.4
$ 157.8
$ 162.1
$ 166.0
$ 169.8
$ 173.4
$ 174.6
$ 177.4
$ 2,487.4
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 136.2
$ 304.6
$ 504.4
$ 734.7
$ 893.9
$ 1,035.4
$ 1,141.8
$ 1,236.8
$ 1,318.5
$ 1,393.4
$ 1,458.9
$ 1,519.2
$ 1,575.9
$ 1,625.9
$ 1,673.3
$ 1,718.1
$ 1,760.2
$ 1,804.3
$ 1,814.7
$ 1,849.2
$ 25,499.6
Notes:     All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
          Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
Source:    Derived from Exhibits F.1f, E.44b, and E.44c.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
                   Exhibit F.15b  Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for
                     Bronchitis as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, Smoking/Lung Cancer
                                          Cessation Lag Model
                                          (All Water Systems)

                TTHM - Rectal Cancer Sensitivity Analysis

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Ann.
3% Discount Rate

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 53.4
$ 115.8
$ 186.3
$ 263.6
$ 311.2
$ 349.4
$ 374.2
$ 392.8
$ 406.4
$ 416.0
$ 422.5
$ 426.7
$ 428.9
$ 429.5
$ 429.0
$ 427.4
$ 424.9
$ 421.8
$ 412.3
$ 407.2
$ 7,099.3
$ 407.7
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 11.8
$ 25.5
$ 40.9
$ 57.9
$ 68.2
$ 76.4
$ 81.8
$ 85.7
$ 88.5
$ 90.4
$ 91.7
$ 92.5
$ 92.8
$ 92.7
$ 92.5
$ 91.9
$ 91.3
$ 90.5
$ 88.5
$ 87.3
$ 1,538.7
$ 88.4
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 117.5
$ 255.1
$ 410.1
$ 580.0
$ 685.1
$ 770.4
$ 824.9
$ 867.5
$ 897.8
$ 921 .2
$ 936.4
$ 946.7
$ 953.5
$ 955.1
$ 954.2
$ 951 .3
$ 946.2
$ 941 .7
$ 919.5
$ 909.7
$ 15,743.9
$ 904.1
7% Discount Rate

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 44.2
$ 92.2
$ 142.7
$ 194.4
$ 220.9
$ 238.7
$ 246.1
$ 248.7
$ 247.7
$ 244.0
$ 238.6
$ 231 .9
$ 224.4
$ 216.4
$ 208.0
$ 199.5
$ 190.9
$ 182.4
$ 171.6
$ 163.2
$ 3,946.3
$ 338.6
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 9.7
$ 20.3
$ 31.3
$ 42.7
$ 48.4
$ 52.2
$ 53.8
$ 54.3
$ 53.9
$ 53.1
$ 51.8
$ 50.3
$ 48.5
$ 46.7
$ 44.8
$ 42.9
$ 41.0
$ 39.1
$ 36.8
$ 35.0
$ 856.7
$ 73.5
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 97.1
$ 203.0
$ 314.1
$ 427.6
$ 486.2
$ 526.3
$ 542.5
$ 549.2
$ 547.1
$ 540.4
$ 528.8
$ 514.6
$ 498.9
$ 481.1
$ 462.7
$ 444.0
$ 425.1
$ 407.3
$ 382.8
$ 364.6
$ 8,743.3
$ 750.3
                Notes:     Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005.
                         Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate.
                         Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
                Source:    Derived from Exhibit F.15a.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
  Exhibit F.15c  Mean Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-
                            Fatal Cases, at 3% Discount Rate, by System Size
                                              (All Systems)
  TTHM - Rectal Cancer Sensitivity Analysis
Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Ann.
<100
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 9.6
$ 0.6
100-499
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ 0.4
$ 0.9
$ 1.5
$ 2.1
$ 2.7
$ 3.4
$ 3.7
$ 3.9
$ 4.1
$ 4.3
$ 4.3
$ 4.4
$ 4.4
$ 4.5
$ 4.5
$ 4.5
$ 4.4
$ 4.4
$ 4.3
$ 4.3
$ 71.0
$ 4.1
500-999
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ 0.5
$ 1.0
$ 1.6
$ 2.3
$ 3.0
$ 3.8
$ 4.1
$ 4.4
$ 4.6
$ 4.7
$ 4.8
$ 4.9
$ 4.9
$ 4.9
$ 4.9
$ 4.9
$ 4.9
$ 4.9
$ 4.8
$ 4.7
$ 78.7
$ 4.5
1,000-3,299
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.6
$ 3.5
$ 5.6
$ 7.9
$ 10.3
$ 12.9
$ 14.0
$ 14.9
$ 15.6
$ 16.1
$ 16.5
$ 16.7
$ 16.8
$ 16.9
$ 16.9
$ 16.9
$ 16.8
$ 16.7
$ 16.4
$ 16.2
$ 269.1
$ 15.5
3,300-9,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.8
$ 6.1
$ 9.9
$ 14.0
$ 18.3
$ 22.8
$ 24.8
$ 26.5
$ 27.7
$ 28.6
$ 29.2
$ 29.6
$ 29.9
$ 30.0
$ 30.0
$ 30.0
$ 29.8
$ 29.6
$ 29.0
$ 28.7
$ 477.3
$ 27.4
10,000-
49,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 8.6
$ 18.7
$ 30.0
$ 42.5
$ 55.6
$ 65.3
$ 70.7
$ 75.0
$ 78.2
$ 80.4
$ 82.0
$ 83.0
$ 83.6
$ 83.9
$ 83.9
$ 83.7
$ 83.3
$ 82.7
$ 80.9
$ 80.0
$ 1,351.9
$ 77.6
50,000-
99,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 5.5
$ 11.8
$ 19.0
$ 26.9
$ 32.8
$ 35.9
$ 38.5
$ 40.4
$ 41.7
$ 42.7
$ 43.3
$ 43.7
$ 44.0
$ 44.0
$ 43.9
$ 43.8
$ 43.5
$ 43.2
$ 42.2
$ 41.7
$ 728.6
$ 41.8
100,000-
999,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 20.4
$ 44.2
$ 71.1
$ 100.6
$ 112.8
$ 122.9
$ 130.7
$ 136.3
$ 140.4
$ 143.2
$ 145.1
$ 146.2
$ 146.8
$ 146.8
$ 146.5
$ 145.8
$ 144.9
$ 143.8
$ 140.5
$ 138.7
$ 2,467.8
$ 141.7
>1, 000,000
$
$
$
$
$
$ 13.6
$ 29.5
$ 47.4
$ 67.1
$ 75.2
$ 82.0
$ 87.2
$ 90.9
$ 93.6
$ 95.5
$ 96.7
$ 97.5
$ 97.9
$ 97.9
$ 97.7
$ 97.2
$ 96.6
$ 95.9
$ 93.7
$ 92.5
$ 1,645.3
$ 94.5
Total
$
$
$
$
$
$ 53.4
$ 115.8
$ 186.3
$ 263.6
$ 311.2
$ 349.4
$ 374.2
$ 392.8
$ 406.4
$ 416.0
$ 422.5
$ 426.7
$ 428.9
$ 429.5
$ 429.0
$ 427.4
$ 424.9
$ 421 .8
$ 412.3
$ 407.2
$ 7,099.3
$ 407.7
  Notes:   Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to
         Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate.
         Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
  Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f and E.44d.
2005.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
                            December 2005

-------
  Exhibit F.15d  Mean Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Bronchitis as Basis for Non-
                            Fatal Cases, at 7% Discount Rate, by System Size
                                              (All Systems)
  TTHM - Rectal Cancer Sensitivity Analysis
Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Ann.
<100
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 5.3
$ 0.5
100-499
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ 0.3
$ 0.7
$ 1.1
$ 1.5
$ 1.9
$ 2.3
$ 2.4
$ 2.5
$ 2.5
$ 2.5
$ 2.5
$ 2.4
$ 2.3
$ 2.2
$ 2.2
$ 2.1
$ 2.0
$ 1.9
$ 1.8
$ 1.7
$ 39.0
$ 3.3
500-999
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ 0.4
$ 0.8
$ 1.2
$ 1.7
$ 2.1
$ 2.6
$ 2.7
$ 2.8
$ 2.8
$ 2.8
$0 7
£.. I
$ 2.7
$ 2.6
$ 2.5
$ 2.4
$ 2.3
$ 2.2
$ 2.1
$ 2.0
$ 1.9
$ 43.2
$ 3.7
1,000-3,299
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.3
$ 2.8
$ 4.3
$ 5.8
$ 7.3
$ 8.8
$ 9.2
$ 9.4
$ 9.5
$ 9.5
$ 9.3
$ 9.1
$ 8.8
$ 8.5
$ 8.2
$ 7.9
$ 7.6
$ 7.2
$ 6.8
$ 6.5
$ 147.8
$ 12.7
3,300-9,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.3
$ 4.9
$ 7.6
$ 10.3
$ 13.0
$ 15.6
$ 16.3
$ 16.7
$ 16.9
$ 16.8
$ 16.5
$ 16.1
$ 15.6
$ 15.1
$ 14.6
$ 14.0
$ 13.4
$ 12.8
$ 12.1
$ 11.5
$ 262.0
$ 22.5
10,000-
49,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 7.1
$ 14.9
$ 23.0
$ 31.3
$ 39.5
$ 44.6
$ 46.5
$ 47.5
$ 47.6
$ 47.2
$ 46.3
$ 45.1
$ 43.8
$ 42.3
$ 40.7
$ 39.1
$ 37.4
$ 35.8
$ 33.7
$ 32.0
$ 745.2
$ 63.9
50,000-
99,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 4.5
$ 9.4
$ 14.6
$ 19.9
$ 23.3
$ 24.6
$ 25.3
$ 25.6
$ 25.4
$ 25.0
$ 24.5
$ 23.8
$ 23.0
$ 22.2
$ 21.3
$ 20.4
$ 19.6
$ 18.7
$ 17.6
$ 16.7
$ 405.2
$ 34.8
100,000-
999,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 16.8
$ 35.2
$ 54.4
$ 74.2
$ 80.1
$ 84.0
$ 86.0
$ 86.3
$ 85.5
$ 84.0
$ 81.9
$ 79.5
$ 76.8
$ 74.0
$ 71.0
$ 68.1
$ 65.1
$ 62.2
$ 58.5
$ 55.6
$ 1,379.1
$ 118.3
>1, 000,000
$
$
$
$
$
$ 11.2
$ 23.4
$ 36.3
$ 49.4
$ 53.4
$ 56.0
$ 57.3
$ 57.5
$ 57.0
$ 56.0
$ 54.6
$ 53.0
$ 51.2
$ 49.3
$ 47.4
$ 45.4
$ 43.4
$ 41.5
$ 39.0
$ 37.1
$ 919.5
$ 78.9
Total
$
$
$
$
$
$ 44.2
$ 92.2
$ 142.7
$ 194.4
$ 220.9
$ 238.7
$ 246.1
$ 248.7
$ 247.7
$ 244.0
$ 238.6
$ 231 .9
$ 224.4
$ 216.4
$ 208.0
$ 199.5
$ 190.9
$ 182.4
$ 171.6
$ 163.2
$ 3,946.3
$ 338.6
  Notes:   Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to
         Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate.
         Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
  Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f and E.44d.
2005.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
                            December 2005

-------
             Section F.20
Model Outputs - Preferred Alternative, ICR
          Matrix Method Only
          TTHM as Indicator
     Lymphoma for Non-Fatal Cases

-------

-------
      Exhibit F.20a Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                             (Surface Water Systems Serving <100 People)

      TTHM - Preferred Alternative, ICR Matrix Method

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 3.9
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.6
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 9.0
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 2.5
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.4
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 5.7
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 4.7
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.7
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 10.9
     Notes:  All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
            Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
     Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
     Exhibit F.20b Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                            (Surface Water Systems Serving 100-499 People)

    TTHM - Preferred Alternative, ICR Matrix Method

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.4
$ 0.6
$ 0.9
$ 1.2
$ 1.4
$ 1.6
$ 1.8
$ 2.0
$ 2.1
$ 2.3
$ 2.4
$ 2.5
$ 2.6
$ 2.7
$ 2.7
$ 2.8
$ 2.8
$ 2.9
$ 36.1
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 5.5
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.5
$ 0.9
$ 1.4
$ 2.0
$ 2.7
$ 3.3
$ 3.8
$ 4.2
$ 4.6
$ 4.9
$ 5.2
$ 5.5
$ 5.7
$ 6.0
$ 6.2
$ 6.3
$ 6.5
$ 6.6
$ 6.7
$ 83.4
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.7
$ 0.9
$ 1.0
$ 1.1
$ 1.2
$ 1.3
$ 1.4
$ 1.5
$ 1.6
$ 1.6
$ 1.7
$ 1.8
$ 1.9
$ 1.9
$ 2.0
$ 22.9
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 3.5
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.3
$ 0.6
$ 0.9
$ 1.3
$ 1.7
$ 2.0
$ 2.2
$ 2.5
$ 2.7
$ 2.9
$ 3.2
$ 3.4
$ 3.6
$ 3.8
$ 4.0
$ 4.2
$ 4.4
$ 4.5
$ 4.6
$ 52.8
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.4
$ 0.6
$ 1.0
$ 1.3
$ 1.7
$ 2.0
$ 2.2
$ 2.4
$ 2.5
$ 2.6
$ 2.7
$ 2.8
$ 2.9
$ 3.0
$ 3.0
$ 3.1
$ 3.2
$ 3.2
$ 3.2
$ 43.9
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 6.7
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.3
$ 0.8
$ 1.5
$ 2.2
$ 3.0
$ 3.9
$ 4.5
$ 5.0
$ 5.4
$ 5.8
$ 6.1
$ 6.3
$ 6.5
$ 6.7
$ 6.9
$ 7.0
$ 7.2
$ 7.3
$ 7.3
$ 7.4
$ 101.4
    Notes:   All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
           Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
    Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
      Exhibit F.20c Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                            (Surface Water Systems Serving 500-999 People)

    TTHM - Preferred Alternative, ICR Matrix Method

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.4
$ 0.7
$ 1.1
$ 1.6
$ 2.1
$ 2.5
$ 2.9
$ 3.2
$ 3.5
$ 3.8
$ 4.0
$ 4.2
$ 4.4
$ 4.5
$ 4.7
$ 4.8
$ 5.0
$ 5.0
$ 5.1
$ 63.6
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 9.7
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.3
$ 0.9
$ 1.6
$ 2.5
$ 3.6
$ 4.8
$ 5.8
$ 6.6
$ 7.4
$ 8.1
$ 8.7
$ 9.2
$ 9.7
$ 10.1
$ 10.5
$ 10.8
$ 11.2
$ 11.5
$ 11.6
$ 11.9
$ 146.9
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.3
$ 0.5
$ 0.7
$ 1.0
$ 1.3
$ 1.5
$ 1.7
$ 1.9
$ 2.1
$ 2.2
$ 2.4
$ 2.6
$ 2.7
$ 2.9
$ 3.0
$ 3.2
$ 3.3
$ 3.4
$ 3.5
$ 40.3
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 6.1
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.6
$ 1.1
$ 1.6
$ 2.2
$ 2.9
$ 3.4
$ 3.9
$ 4.4
$ 4.8
$ 5.2
$ 5.6
$ 6.0
$ 6.3
$ 6.7
$ 7.0
$ 7.4
$ 7.7
$ 7.9
$ 8.2
$ 93.1
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.6
$ 1.1
$ 1.7
$ 2.3
$ 3.0
$ 3.5
$ 3.9
$ 4.2
$ 4.4
$ 4.6
$ 4.8
$ 5.0
$ 5.1
$ 5.2
$ 5.4
$ 5.5
$ 5.6
$ 5.6
$ 5.6
$ 77.3
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.9
$ 11.8
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.6
$ 1.5
$ 2.6
$ 3.9
$ 5.3
$ 6.9
$ 8.0
$ 8.9
$ 9.6
$ 10.2
$ 10.7
$ 11.1
$ 11.5
$ 11.8
$ 12.1
$ 12.4
$ 12.6
$ 12.9
$ 12.9
$ 13.1
$ 178.6
    Notes:   All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
           Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
    Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
     Exhibit F.20d Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                          (Surface Water Systems Serving 1,000-3,299 People)

    TTHM - Preferred Alternative, ICR Matrix Method

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.0
$ 2.6
$ 4.6
$ 7.2
$ 10.1
$ 13.5
$ 16.2
$ 18.6
$ 20.7
$ 22.6
$ 24.3
$ 25.7
$ 27.0
$ 28.2
$ 29.2
$ 30.2
$ 31.1
$ 32.0
$ 32.3
$ 33.0
$ 409.9
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.4
$ 0.7
$ 1.1
$ 1.5
$ 2.1
$ 2.5
$ 2.8
$ 3.2
$ 3.4
$ 3.7
$ 3.9
$ 4.1
$ 4.3
$ 4.4
$ 4.6
$ 4.7
$ 4.8
$ 4.9
$ 5.0
$ 62.3
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.2
$ 5.9
$ 10.6
$ 16.4
$ 23.3
$ 31.0
$ 37.2
$ 42.7
$ 47.7
$ 52.1
$ 56.0
$ 59.4
$ 62.4
$ 65.2
$ 67.6
$ 69.9
$ 72.1
$ 74.1
$ 75.0
$ 76.6
$ 947.4
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.7
$ 1.7
$ 3.0
$ 4.5
$ 6.2
$ 8.2
$ 9.7
$ 11.0
$ 12.2
$ 13.4
$ 14.5
$ 15.6
$ 16.6
$ 17.6
$ 18.6
$ 19.6
$ 20.5
$ 21.4
$ 22.0
$ 22.7
$ 259.6
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.3
$ 0.5
$ 0.7
$ 1.0
$ 1.3
$ 1.5
$ 1.7
$ 1.9
$ 2.0
$ 2.2
$ 2.4
$ 2.5
$ 2.7
$ 2.8
$ 3.0
$ 3.1
$ 3.2
$ 3.3
$ 3.4
$ 39.5
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.6
$ 3.9
$ 6.8
$ 10.3
$ 14.4
$ 18.9
$ 22.2
$ 25.3
$ 28.1
$ 30.9
$ 33.5
$ 36.0
$ 38.5
$ 40.8
$ 43.1
$ 45.2
$ 47.4
$ 49.6
$ 50.9
$ 52.8
$ 600.1
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.6
$ 4.1
$ 7.2
$ 10.8
$ 14.9
$ 19.4
$ 22.5
$ 24.9
$ 26.9
$ 28.5
$ 29.9
$ 31.1
$ 32.1
$ 33.0
$ 33.8
$ 34.5
$ 35.2
$ 35.8
$ 36.0
$ 36.4
$ 498.5
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.6
$ 1.1
$ 1.7
$ 2.3
$ 3.0
$ 3.4
$ 3.8
$ 4.1
$ 4.3
$ 4.5
$ 4.7
$ 4.9
$ 5.0
$ 5.1
$ 5.2
$ 5.3
$ 5.4
$ 5.4
$ 5.5
$ 75.8
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 3.7
$ 9.4
$ 16.5
$ 24.9
$ 34.3
$ 44.6
$ 51.6
$ 57.3
$ 61.9
$ 65.7
$ 69.0
$ 71.7
$ 74.2
$ 76.3
$ 78.2
$ 79.9
$ 81.6
$ 83.1
$ 83.4
$ 84.5
$ 1,151.9
    Notes:   All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
           Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
    Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
      Exhibit F.20e Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                          (Surface Water Systems Serving 3,300-9,999 People)

    TTHM - Preferred Alternative, ICR Matrix Method

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.8
$ 7.3
$ 13.2
$ 20.5
$ 28.9
$ 38.6
$ 46.3
$ 53.1
$ 59.2
$ 64.6
$ 69.4
$ 73.5
$ 77.2
$ 80.6
$ 83.6
$ 86.4
$ 89.0
$ 91.4
$ 92.5
$ 94.4
$ 1,172.5
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.4
$ 1.1
$ 2.0
$ 3.1
$ 4.4
$ 5.9
$ 7.1
$ 8.1
$ 9.0
$ 9.8
$ 10.6
$ 11.2
$ 11.7
$ 12.3
$ 12.7
$ 13.1
$ 13.5
$ 13.8
$ 14.0
$ 14.3
$ 178.3
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 6.4
$ 16.8
$ 30.4
$ 47.0
$ 66.5
$ 88.8
$ 106.5
$ 122.2
$ 136.3
$ 149.1
$ 160.2
$ 169.8
$ 178.6
$ 186.4
$ 193.5
$ 200.0
$ 206.1
$ 212.1
$ 214.4
$ 219.0
$ 2,710.1
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.0
$ 4.9
$ 8.5
$ 12.9
$ 17.9
$ 23.5
$ 27.6
$ 31.4
$ 34.9
$ 38.3
$ 41.5
$ 44.6
$ 47.6
$ 50.4
$ 53.2
$ 55.9
$ 58.6
$ 61.1
$ 62.8
$ 65.1
$ 742.6
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.3
$ 0.7
$ 1.3
$ 2.0
$ 2.7
$ 3.6
$ 4.2
$ 4.8
$ 5.3
$ 5.8
$ 6.3
$ 6.8
$ 7.2
$ 7.7
$ 8.1
$ 8.5
$ 8.9
$ 9.3
$ 9.5
$ 9.8
$ 112.9
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 4.6
$ 11.2
$ 19.6
$ 29.5
$ 41.1
$ 54.0
$ 63.5
$ 72.3
$ 80.5
$ 88.4
$ 95.8
$ 102.9
$ 110.0
$ 116.7
$ 123.2
$ 129.4
$ 135.6
$ 141.8
$ 145.6
$ 151.0
$ 1,716.7
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 4.6
$ 11.7
$ 20.6
$ 31.0
$ 42.7
$ 55.5
$ 64.2
$ 71.2
$ 76.8
$ 81.5
$ 85.5
$ 88.8
$ 91.8
$ 94.4
$ 96.7
$ 98.8
$ 100.7
$ 102.5
$ 102.8
$ 104.2
$1,425.9
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.7
$ 1.8
$ 3.2
$ 4.8
$ 6.5
$ 8.5
$ 9.8
$ 10.9
$ 11.7
$ 12.4
$ 13.0
$ 13.5
$ 14.0
$ 14.4
$ 14.7
$ 15.0
$ 15.3
$ 15.5
$ 15.6
$ 15.8
$ 216.9
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 10.6
$ 26.8
$ 47.3
$ 71.3
$ 98.2
$ 127.5
$ 147.7
$ 163.8
$ 177.0
$ 188.1
$ 197.3
$ 205.1
$ 212.3
$ 218.3
$ 223.8
$ 228.6
$ 233.3
$ 237.8
$ 238.4
$ 241.7
$ 3,294.9
    Notes:   All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
           Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
    Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
      Exhibit F.20f Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                         (Surface Water Systems Serving 10,000-49,999 People)

    TTHM - Preferred Alternative, ICR Matrix Method

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 17.6
$ 45.6
$ 82.6
$ 127.8
$ 181.3
$ 233.4
$ 277.3
$ 316.7
$ 352.3
$ 383.8
$ 411.2
$ 435.0
$ 456.2
$ 475.2
$ 492.5
$ 508.4
$ 523.2
$ 537.0
$ 542.9
$ 553.7
$ 6,953.7
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.7
$ 7.0
$ 12.6
$ 19.6
$ 27.7
$ 35.7
$ 42.4
$ 48.4
$ 53.7
$ 58.5
$ 62.6
$ 66.2
$ 69.4
$ 72.3
$ 74.9
$ 77.2
$ 79.3
$ 81.3
$ 82.3
$ 83.8
$ 1,057.3
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 40.4
$ 104.9
$ 189.7
$ 293.5
$ 416.7
$ 536.8
$ 637.7
$ 729.1
$ 811.6
$ 885.8
$ 949.4
$ 1,004.5
$ 1,055.1
$ 1,099.3
$ 1,139.8
$ 1,176.7
$ 1,211.9
$ 1,245.8
$ 1,258.7
$ 1,285.0
$ 16,072.5
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 15.1
$ 36.1
$ 62.1
$ 92.4
$ 126.9
$ 157.3
$ 180.3
$ 201 .2
$ 220.7
$ 239.1
$ 256.6
$ 273.4
$ 289.5
$ 305.1
$ 320.2
$ 334.8
$ 349.0
$ 362.9
$ 371 .5
$ 383.7
$ 4,577.9
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.3
$ 5.5
$ 9.5
$ 14.1
$ 19.4
$ 24.1
$ 27.5
$ 30.7
$ 33.7
$ 36.4
$ 39.1
$ 41.6
$ 44.0
$ 46.4
$ 48.7
$ 50.8
$ 52.9
$ 54.9
$ 56.3
$ 58.1
$ 696.1
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 34.7
$ 83.1
$ 142.6
$ 212.3
$ 291.7
$ 361.8
$ 414.7
$ 463.2
$ 508.4
$ 551.7
$ 592.4
$ 631.2
$ 669.6
$ 705.8
$ 740.9
$ 774.8
$ 808.5
$ 841.9
$ 861.5
$ 890.4
$ 10,581.2
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 31.4
$ 77.8
$ 135.4
$ 201 .9
$ 275.8
$ 339.5
$ 384.0
$ 419.5
$ 448.8
$ 473.3
$ 494.4
$ 512.6
$ 528.8
$ 543.2
$ 556.3
$ 568.3
$ 579.4
$ 589.8
$ 591 .9
$ 599.8
$8,351.7
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 4.8
$ 11.9
$ 20.7
$ 30.9
$ 42.2
$ 51.9
$ 58.7
$ 64.1
$ 68.4
$ 72.1
$ 75.3
$ 78.0
$ 80.4
$ 82.6
$ 84.6
$ 86.3
$ 87.8
$ 89.3
$ 89.7
$ 90.8
$ 1,270.3
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 72.2
$ 178.9
$ 311.0
$ 463.7
$ 634.0
$ 780.7
$ 883.1
$ 965.7
$ 1,033.9
$ 1,092.3
$ 1,141.4
$ 1,183.6
$ 1,222.9
$ 1,256.6
$ 1,287.3
$ 1,315.2
$ 1,342.1
$ 1,368.4
$ 1,372.5
$ 1,392.1
$ 19,297.5
    Notes:   All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
           Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
    Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
     Exhibit F.20g Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                         (Surface Water Systems Serving 50,000-99,999 People)

    TTHM - Preferred Alternative, ICR Matrix Method

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 15.3
$ 39.7
$ 71.9
$ 111.4
$ 150.0
$ 182.7
$ 212.3
$ 239.2
$ 263.0
$ 283.6
$ 301 .4
$ 317.1
$ 331 .2
$ 343.9
$ 355.6
$ 366.4
$ 376.5
$ 385.9
$ 389.8
$ 397.2
$ 5,134.0
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.3
$ 6.1
$ 11.0
$ 17.0
$ 22.9
$ 27.9
$ 32.4
$ 36.5
$ 40.1
$ 43.2
$ 45.9
$ 48.2
$ 50.4
$ 52.3
$ 54.1
$ 55.6
$ 57.1
$ 58.4
$ 59.1
$ 60.1
$ 780.7
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 35.2
$ 91.4
$ 165.3
$ 255.8
$ 344.8
$ 420.2
$ 488.3
$ 550.5
$ 605.9
$ 654.4
$ 695.8
$ 732.1
$ 765.9
$ 795.6
$ 823.0
$ 848.0
$ 872.1
$ 895.4
$ 903.7
$ 921.8
$ 11,865.1
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 13.2
$ 31.5
$ 54.1
$ 80.5
$ 103.7
$ 120.7
$ 136.0
$ 150.2
$ 163.5
$ 176.2
$ 188.3
$ 199.9
$ 211.2
$ 222.0
$ 232.5
$ 242.8
$ 252.7
$ 262.4
$ 268.4
$ 276.9
$ 3,386.6
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.0
$ 4.8
$ 8.3
$ 12.3
$ 15.9
$ 18.5
$ 20.8
$ 22.9
$ 24.9
$ 26.8
$ 28.7
$ 30.4
$ 32.1
$ 33.8
$ 35.3
$ 36.9
$ 38.3
$ 39.7
$ 40.7
$ 41.9
$ 515.0
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 30.3
$ 72.4
$ 124.3
$ 185.0
$ 238.5
$ 277.6
$ 312.7
$ 345.6
$ 376.6
$ 406.5
$ 434.7
$ 461.6
$ 488.4
$ 513.6
$ 538.2
$ 561.9
$ 585.4
$ 608.8
$ 622.3
$ 642.6
$ 7,827.0
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 27.4
$ 67.8
$ 118.0
$ 175.9
$ 226.1
$ 260.5
$ 287.8
$ 310.0
$ 328.6
$ 344.5
$ 358.2
$ 370.2
$ 380.9
$ 390.5
$ 399.3
$ 407.5
$ 415.1
$ 422.2
$ 423.5
$ 428.9
$ 6,142.6
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 4.2
$ 10.4
$ 18.1
$ 26.9
$ 34.6
$ 39.8
$ 44.0
$ 47.3
$ 50.1
$ 52.5
$ 54.5
$ 56.3
$ 57.9
$ 59.4
$ 60.7
$ 61.8
$ 62.9
$ 63.9
$ 64.2
$ 64.9
$ 934.4
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 62.9
$ 155.9
$ 271.0
$ 404.1
$ 519.7
$ 599.2
$ 661.8
$ 713.7
$ 757.1
$ 794.9
$ 826.9
$ 854.7
$ 880.8
$ 903.4
$ 924.1
$ 943.0
$ 961.4
$ 979.5
$ 981.9
$ 995.5
$ 14,191.4
    Notes:   All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
           Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
    Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
     Exhibit F.20h Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                        (Surface Water Systems Serving 100,000-999,999 People)

  TTHM - Preferred Alternative, ICR Matrix Method

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 67.8
$ 175.8
$ 318.3
$ 492.6
$ 628.3
$ 752.4
$ 866.1
$ 969.0
$ 1 ,058.7
$ 1,135.0
$ 1 ,201 .7
$ 1 ,261 .0
$ 1,314.4
$ 1 ,363.0
$ 1 ,407.6
$ 1 ,449.0
$ 1 ,487.7
$ 1,524.1
$ 1 ,538.4
$ 1 ,567.0
$ 20,577.9
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 10.4
$ 26.9
$ 48.7
$ 75.4
$ 96.0
$ 115.0
$ 132.3
$ 148.0
$ 161.4
$ 172.9
$ 183.0
$ 191.8
$ 199.9
$ 207.3
$ 214.0
$ 219.9
$ 225.5
$ 230.8
$ 233.1
$ 237.1
$ 3,129.5
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 155.7
$ 404.4
$ 731.1
$ 1,131.5
$ 1,444.2
$ 1,730.3
$ 1,991.9
$ 2,230.5
$ 2,439.0
$ 2,619.3
$ 2,774.4
$ 2,911.6
$ 3,040.0
$ 3,153.1
$ 3,257.6
$ 3,353.6
$ 3,446.1
$ 3,535.8
$ 3,566.9
$ 3,636.8
$ 47,553.9
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 58.2
$ 139.3
$ 239.3
$ 356.3
$ 428.6
$ 492.1
$ 550.3
$ 604.6
$ 656.0
$ 704.9
$ 751.8
$ 797.0
$ 840.5
$ 882.7
$ 923.6
$ 963.4
$ 1,002.2
$ 1,040.0
$ 1,063.0
$ 1,096.0
$ 13,589.8
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 8.9
$ 21.3
$ 36.6
$ 54.5
$ 65.5
$ 75.2
$ 84.1
$ 92.3
$ 100.0
$ 107.4
$ 114.5
$ 121.2
$ 127.8
$ 134.3
$ 140.4
$ 146.2
$ 151.9
$ 157.5
$ 161.1
$ 165.9
$ 2,066.7
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 133.9
$ 320.3
$ 549.7
$ 818.4
$ 985.2
$ 1,131.7
$ 1 ,265.4
$ 1 ,391 .7
$ 1,511.2
$ 1 ,626.7
$ 1 ,735.8
$ 1,840.1
$ 1 ,944.0
$ 2,042.1
$ 2,137.5
$ 2,229.8
$ 2,321.4
$ 2,412.7
$ 2,464.7
$ 2,543.7
$ 31,406.1
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 121.0
$ 299.9
$ 521 .8
$ 778.2
$ 937.1
$ 1,060.1
$ 1,159.1
$ 1 ,240.9
$ 1 ,309.7
$ 1 ,368.6
$ 1,419.8
$ 1,465.1
$ 1 ,505.5
$ 1,542.1
$ 1 ,575.8
$ 1 ,607.0
$ 1 ,636.2
$ 1 ,663.8
$ 1 ,668.3
$ 1 ,689.3
$ 24,569.2
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 18.5
$ 45.9
$ 79.9
$ 119.1
$ 143.3
$ 162.1
$ 177.1
$ 189.5
$ 199.7
$ 208.5
$ 216.2
$ 222.8
$ 228.9
$ 234.6
$ 239.5
$ 243.9
$ 248.0
$ 251 .9
$ 252.8
$ 255.6
$ 3,737.9
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 278.2
$ 689.7
$ 1,198.8
$ 1,787.6
$ 2,154.3
$ 2,437.9
$ 2,665.6
$ 2,856.3
$ 3,017.2
$ 3,158.3
$ 3,278.0
$ 3,382.7
$ 3,481.9
$ 3,567.6
$ 3,646.7
$ 3,719.1
$ 3,790.0
$ 3,860.0
$ 3,868.2
$ 3,920.5
$ 56,758.7
  Notes:  All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
         Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
  Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
      Exhibit F.20i Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                          (Surface Water Systems Serving >1,000,000 People)

  TTHM - Preferred Alternative, ICR Matrix Method

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 57.7
$ 149.6
$ 270.9
$ 419.2
$ 534.7
$ 640.3
$ 737.1
$ 824.7
$ 901 .0
$ 966.0
$ 1 ,022.7
$ 1 ,073.2
$ 1,118.6
$ 1,160.0
$ 1,198.0
$ 1 ,233.2
$ 1,266.1
$ 1,297.1
$ 1 ,309.2
$ 1 ,333.6
$ 17,513.0
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 8.8
$ 22.9
$ 41.4
$ 64.2
$ 81.7
$ 97.9
$ 112.6
$ 125.9
$ 137.4
$ 147.1
$ 155.7
$ 163.2
$ 170.1
$ 176.4
$ 182.1
$ 187.2
$ 191.9
$ 196.4
$ 198.4
$ 201 .8
$ 2,663.4
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 132.6
$ 344.1
$ 622.2
$ 963.0
$ 1,229.1
$ 1,472.6
$ 1,695.2
$ 1,898.3
$ 2,075.8
$ 2,229.1
$ 2,361.2
$ 2,477.9
$ 2,587.2
$ 2,683.5
$ 2,772.4
$ 2,854.1
$ 2,932.8
$ 3,009.2
$ 3,035.7
$ 3,095.1
$ 40,471.2
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 49.6
$ 118.5
$ 203.6
$ 303.2
$ 364.7
$ 418.8
$ 468.3
$ 514.6
$ 558.3
$ 599.9
$ 639.8
$ 678.3
$ 715.3
$ 751.2
$ 786.1
$ 819.9
$ 852.9
$ 885.1
$ 904.7
$ 932.8
$ 11,565.7
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 7.6
$ 18.1
$ 31.2
$ 46.4
$ 55.8
$ 64.0
$ 71.5
$ 78.6
$ 85.1
$ 91.4
$ 97.4
$ 103.2
$ 108.8
$ 114.3
$ 119.5
$ 124.5
$ 129.3
$ 134.0
$ 137.1
$ 141.2
$ 1,758.9
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 113.9
$ 272.6
$ 467.8
$ 696.5
$ 838.5
$ 963.2
$ 1 ,077.0
$ 1,184.4
$ 1,286.1
$ 1 ,384.4
$ 1 ,477.2
$ 1 ,566.0
$ 1 ,654.4
$ 1 ,737.9
$ 1,819.2
$ 1 ,897.7
$ 1 ,975.7
$ 2,053.4
$ 2,097.6
$ 2,164.8
$ 26,728.4
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 103.0
$ 255.2
$ 444.1
$ 662.3
$ 797.6
$ 902.2
$ 986.5
$ 1 ,056.0
$ 1,114.6
$ 1,164.8
$ 1 ,208.4
$ 1 ,246.8
$ 1 ,281 .3
$ 1,312.5
$ 1,341.1
$ 1 ,367.6
$ 1 ,392.5
$ 1,416.0
$ 1,419.8
$ 1 ,437.7
$ 20,909.9
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 15.8
$ 39.1
$ 68.0
$ 101.4
$ 121.9
$ 138.0
$ 150.7
$ 161.3
$ 170.0
$ 177.4
$ 184.0
$ 189.6
$ 194.8
$ 199.6
$ 203.9
$ 207.6
$ 211.1
$ 214.4
$ 215.2
$ 217.6
$ 3,181.1
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 236.8
$ 587.0
$ 1,020.3
$ 1,521.3
$ 1,833.4
$ 2,074.8
$ 2,268.6
$ 2,430.9
$ 2,567.9
$ 2,687.9
$ 2,789.8
$ 2,878.8
$ 2,963.3
$ 3,036.2
$ 3,103.6
$ 3,165.2
$ 3,225.5
$ 3,285.1
$ 3,292.1
$ 3,336.6
$ 48,305.0
  Notes:  All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
         Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
  Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
        Exhibit F.20J Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                                        (All Surface Water Systems)

TTHM - Preferred Alternative, ICR Matrix Method
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 162.3
$ 421.3
$ 762.6
$ 1,180.4
$ 1,535.8
$ 1,864.3
$ 2,159.5
$ 2,425.9
$ 2,660.1
$ 2,861.2
$ 3,036.8
$ 3,192.1
$ 3,331.5
$ 3,458.0
$ 3,574.0
$ 3,681.3
$ 3,781.5
$ 3,875.6
$ 3,913.2
$ 3,987.2
$ 51,864.5
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 24.8
$ 64.5
$ 116.7
$ 180.7
$ 234.8
$ 285.1
$ 329.9
$ 370.4
$ 405.6
$ 435.9
$ 462.4
$ 485.5
$ 506.6
$ 525.9
$ 543.3
$ 558.8
$ 573.2
$ 586.8
$ 593.0
$ 603.4
$ 7,887.3
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 373.1
$ 968.9
$ 1,751.9
$ 2,711.3
$ 3,530.5
$ 4,287.5
$ 4,966.3
$ 5,584.2
$ 6,128.3
$ 6,602.9
$ 7,011.1
$ 7,370.1
$ 7,705.0
$ 7,999.6
$ 8,271.1
$ 8,520.0
$ 8,759.3
$ 8,991.1
$ 9,073.4
$ 9,253.6
$ 119,859.5
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 138.9
$ 332.4
$ 571.3
$ 851.0
$ 1,049.6
$ 1,222.7
$ 1,374.6
$ 1,515.7
$ 1,648.6
$ 1,775.1
$ 1,896.2
$ 2,012.6
$ 2,124.9
$ 2,233.6
$ 2,338.9
$ 2,441.4
$ 2,541.1
$ 2,638.3
$ 2,697.9
$ 2,782.9
$ 34,187.8
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 21.3
$ 50.9
$ 87.4
$ 130.3
$ 160.5
$ 187.0
$ 210.0
$ 231.4
$ 251.4
$ 270.4
$ 288.7
$ 306.1
$ 323.1
$ 339.7
$ 355.6
$ 370.6
$ 385.2
$ 399.5
$ 408.8
$ 421.1
$ 5,198.9
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 319.3
$ 764.6
$ 1,312.5
$ 1,954.7
$ 2,412.8
$ 2,811.9
$ 3,161.2
$ 3,488.9
$ 3,798.2
$ 4,096.5
$ 4,377.8
$ 4,646.9
$ 4,914.5
$ 5,167.1
$ 5,412.9
$ 5,650.2
$ 5,886.1
$ 6,120.8
$ 6,255.5
$ 6,458.7
$ 79,011.1
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 289.4
$ 717.4
$ 1,248.9
$ 1,863.0
$ 2,298.0
$ 2,641.9
$ 2,909.7
$ 3,128.8
$ 3,312.1
$ 3,468.3
$ 3,603.6
$ 3,722.4
$ 3,828.4
$ 3,924.0
$ 4,011.4
$ 4,092.3
$ 4,167.9
$ 4,239.3
$ 4,251.4
$ 4,305.4
$ 62,023.7
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 44.3
$ 109.8
$ 191.1
$ 285.2
$ 351.3
$ 404.0
$ 444.5
$ 477.8
$ 505.0
$ 528.3
$ 548.7
$ 566.2
$ 582.1
$ 596.8
$ 609.8
$ 621.2
$ 631.8
$ 641.9
$ 644.3
$ 651.6
$ 9,435.6
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 665.2
$ 1,650.1
$ 2,869.0
$ 4,279.2
$ 5,282.6
$ 6,076.0
$ 6,691.4
$ 7,202.1
$ 7,630.5
$ 8,003.9
$ 8,319.7
$ 8,594.7
$ 8,854.2
$ 9,077.6
$ 9,283.5
$ 9,471.2
$ 9,654.5
$ 9,834.9
$ 9,857.6
$ 9,992.3
$ 143,290.4
Notes:     All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
          Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
Source:    Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
     Exhibit F.20k Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                             (Ground Water Systems Serving <100 People)

    TTHM - Preferred Alternative, ICR Matrix Method

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.6
$ 0.7
$ 0.8
$ 0.9
$ 1.0
$ 1.0
$ 1.1
$ 1.1
$ 1.2
$ 1.2
$ 1.2
$ 1.3
$ 1.3
$ 1.3
$ 16.2
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 2.5
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.4
$ 0.6
$ 0.9
$ 1.2
$ 1.5
$ 1.7
$ 1.9
$ 2.1
$ 2.2
$ 2.3
$ 2.5
$ 2.6
$ 2.7
$ 2.8
$ 2.8
$ 2.9
$ 3.0
$ 3.0
$ 37.4
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.9
$ 0.9
$ 10.2
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 1.6
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.6
$ 0.7
$ 0.9
$ 1.0
$ 1.1
$ 1.2
$ 1.3
$ 1.4
$ 1.5
$ 1.6
$ 1.7
$ 1.8
$ 1.9
$ 2.0
$ 2.0
$ 2.1
$ 23.7
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.6
$ 0.8
$ 0.9
$ 1.0
$ 1.1
$ 1.1
$ 1.2
$ 1.2
$ 1.3
$ 1.3
$ 1.3
$ 1.4
$ 1.4
$ 1.4
$ 1.4
$ 1.4
$ 19.7
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 3.0
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.4
$ 0.7
$ 1.0
$ 1.4
$ 1.8
$ 2.0
$ 2.3
$ 2.4
$ 2.6
$ 2.7
$ 2.8
$ 2.9
$ 3.0
$ 3.1
$ 3.2
$ 3.2
$ 3.3
$ 3.3
$ 3.3
$ 45.5
    Notes:   All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
           Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
    Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
      Exhibit F.20I  Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                           (Ground Water Systems Serving 100-499 People)

    TTHM - Preferred Alternative, ICR Matrix Method

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.3
$ 0.7
$ 1.3
$ 2.1
$ 3.0
$ 3.9
$ 4.7
$ 5.4
$ 6.0
$ 6.6
$ 7.1
$ 7.5
$ 7.9
$ 8.2
$ 8.5
$ 8.8
$ 9.1
$ 9.3
$ 9.4
$ 9.6
$ 119.5
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.5
$ 0.6
$ 0.7
$ 0.8
$ 0.9
$ 1.0
$ 1.1
$ 1.1
$ 1.2
$ 1.2
$ 1.3
$ 1.3
$ 1.4
$ 1.4
$ 1.4
$ 1.5
$ 18.2
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.7
$ 1.7
$ 3.1
$ 4.8
$ 6.8
$ 9.1
$ 10.9
$ 12.5
$ 13.9
$ 15.2
$ 16.3
$ 17.3
$ 18.2
$ 19.0
$ 19.7
$ 20.4
$ 21.0
$ 21.6
$ 21.9
$ 22.3
$ 276.3
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.5
$ 0.9
$ 1.3
$ 1.8
$ 2.4
$ 2.8
$ 3.2
$ 3.6
$ 3.9
$ 4.2
$ 4.5
$ 4.8
$ 5.1
$ 5.4
$ 5.7
$ 6.0
$ 6.2
$ 6.4
$ 6.6
$ 75.7
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.9
$ 0.9
$ 0.9
$ 1.0
$ 1.0
$ 11.5
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.5
$ 1.1
$ 2.0
$ 3.0
$ 4.2
$ 5.5
$ 6.5
$ 7.4
$ 8.2
$ 9.0
$ 9.8
$ 10.5
$ 11.2
$ 11.9
$ 12.6
$ 13.2
$ 13.8
$ 14.5
$ 14.8
$ 15.4
$ 175.0
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.5
$ 1.2
$ 2.1
$ 3.2
$ 4.4
$ 5.7
$ 6.5
$ 7.3
$ 7.8
$ 8.3
$ 8.7
$ 9.1
$ 9.4
$ 9.6
$ 9.9
$ 10.1
$ 10.3
$ 10.5
$ 10.5
$ 10.6
$ 145.4
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.5
$ 0.7
$ 0.9
$ 1.0
$ 1.1
$ 1.2
$ 1.3
$ 1.3
$ 1.4
$ 1.4
$ 1.5
$ 1.5
$ 1.5
$ 1.6
$ 1.6
$ 1.6
$ 1.6
$ 22.1
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.1
$ 2.7
$ 4.8
$ 7.3
$ 10.0
$ 13.0
$ 15.1
$ 16.7
$ 18.0
$ 19.2
$ 20.1
$ 20.9
$ 21.6
$ 22.3
$ 22.8
$ 23.3
$ 23.8
$ 24.2
$ 24.3
$ 24.6
$ 335.9
    Notes:   All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
           Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
    Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
     Exhibit F.20m Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                           (Ground Water Systems Serving 500-999 People)

    TTHM - Preferred Alternative, ICR Matrix Method

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.3
$ 0.8
$ 1.4
$ 2.2
$ 3.1
$ 4.2
$ 5.0
$ 5.8
$ 6.4
$ 7.0
$ 7.5
$ 8.0
$ 8.4
$ 8.7
$ 9.1
$ 9.4
$ 9.7
$ 9.9
$ 10.0
$ 10.2
$ 127.2
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.5
$ 0.6
$ 0.8
$ 0.9
$ 1.0
$ 1.1
$ 1.1
$ 1.2
$ 1.3
$ 1.3
$ 1.4
$ 1.4
$ 1.5
$ 1.5
$ 1.5
$ 1.5
$ 19.3
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.7
$ 1.8
$ 3.3
$ 5.1
$ 7.2
$ 9.6
$ 11.6
$ 13.3
$ 14.8
$ 16.2
$ 17.4
$ 18.4
$ 19.4
$ 20.2
$ 21.0
$ 21.7
$ 22.4
$ 23.0
$ 23.3
$ 23.8
$ 294.0
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.5
$ 0.9
$ 1.4
$ 1.9
$ 2.5
$ 3.0
$ 3.4
$ 3.8
$ 4.2
$ 4.5
$ 4.8
$ 5.2
$ 5.5
$ 5.8
$ 6.1
$ 6.4
$ 6.6
$ 6.8
$ 7.1
$ 80.6
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.9
$ 0.9
$ 1.0
$ 1.0
$ 1.0
$ 1.1
$ 12.2
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.5
$ 1.2
$ 2.1
$ 3.2
$ 4.5
$ 5.9
$ 6.9
$ 7.8
$ 8.7
$ 9.6
$ 10.4
$ 11.2
$ 11.9
$ 12.7
$ 13.4
$ 14.0
$ 14.7
$ 15.4
$ 15.8
$ 16.4
$ 186.2
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.5
$ 1.3
$ 2.2
$ 3.4
$ 4.6
$ 6.0
$ 7.0
$ 7.7
$ 8.3
$ 8.8
$ 9.3
$ 9.6
$ 10.0
$ 10.2
$ 10.5
$ 10.7
$ 10.9
$ 11.1
$ 11.2
$ 11.3
$ 154.7
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.5
$ 0.7
$ 0.9
$ 1.1
$ 1.2
$ 1.3
$ 1.3
$ 1.4
$ 1.5
$ 1.5
$ 1.6
$ 1.6
$ 1.6
$ 1.7
$ 1.7
$ 1.7
$ 1.7
$ 23.5
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.1
$ 2.9
$ 5.1
$ 7.7
$ 10.7
$ 13.8
$ 16.0
$ 17.8
$ 19.2
$ 20.4
$ 21.4
$ 22.3
$ 23.0
$ 23.7
$ 24.3
$ 24.8
$ 25.3
$ 25.8
$ 25.9
$ 26.2
$ 357.4
    Notes:   All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
           Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
    Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
     Exhibit F.20n Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                          (Ground Water Systems Serving 1,000-3,299 People)

    TTHM - Preferred Alternative, ICR Matrix Method

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.8
$ 2.0
$ 3.6
$ 5.6
$ 7.9
$ 10.6
$ 12.7
$ 14.5
$ 16.2
$ 17.7
$ 19.0
$ 20.1
$ 21.2
$ 22.1
$ 22.9
$ 23.7
$ 24.4
$ 25.0
$ 25.3
$ 25.9
$ 321.2
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.3
$ 0.6
$ 0.9
$ 1.2
$ 1.6
$ 1.9
$ 2.2
$ 2.5
$ 2.7
$ 2.9
$ 3.1
$ 3.2
$ 3.4
$ 3.5
$ 3.6
$ 3.7
$ 3.8
$ 3.8
$ 3.9
$ 48.8
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.8
$ 4.6
$ 8.3
$ 12.9
$ 18.2
$ 24.3
$ 29.2
$ 33.5
$ 37.3
$ 40.8
$ 43.9
$ 46.5
$ 48.9
$ 51.1
$ 53.0
$ 54.8
$ 56.5
$ 58.1
$ 58.7
$ 60.0
$ 742.5
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.5
$ 1.3
$ 2.3
$ 3.5
$ 4.9
$ 6.4
$ 7.6
$ 8.6
$ 9.6
$ 10.5
$ 11.4
$ 12.2
$ 13.0
$ 13.8
$ 14.6
$ 15.3
$ 16.0
$ 16.7
$ 17.2
$ 17.8
$ 203.5
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.7
$ 1.0
$ 1.2
$ 1.3
$ 1.5
$ 1.6
$ 1.7
$ 1.9
$ 2.0
$ 2.1
$ 2.2
$ 2.3
$ 2.4
$ 2.5
$ 2.6
$ 2.7
$ 30.9
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.3
$ 3.1
$ 5.4
$ 8.1
$ 11.3
$ 14.8
$ 17.4
$ 19.8
$ 22.1
$ 24.2
$ 26.3
$ 28.2
$ 30.1
$ 32.0
$ 33.7
$ 35.5
$ 37.2
$ 38.9
$ 39.9
$ 41.4
$ 470.4
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.3
$ 3.2
$ 5.6
$ 8.5
$ 11.7
$ 15.2
$ 17.6
$ 19.5
$ 21.0
$ 22.3
$ 23.4
$ 24.3
$ 25.1
$ 25.9
$ 26.5
$ 27.1
$ 27.6
$ 28.1
$ 28.2
$ 28.5
$ 390.7
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.5
$ 0.9
$ 1.3
$ 1.8
$ 2.3
$ 2.7
$ 3.0
$ 3.2
$ 3.4
$ 3.6
$ 3.7
$ 3.8
$ 3.9
$ 4.0
$ 4.1
$ 4.2
$ 4.3
$ 4.3
$ 4.3
$ 59.4
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.9
$ 7.3
$ 13.0
$ 19.5
$ 26.9
$ 34.9
$ 40.5
$ 44.9
$ 48.5
$ 51.5
$ 54.1
$ 56.2
$ 58.2
$ 59.8
$ 61.3
$ 62.6
$ 63.9
$ 65.2
$ 65.3
$ 66.2
$ 902.7
    Notes:   All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
           Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
    Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
     Exhibit F.20o Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                          (Ground Water Systems Serving 3,300-9,999 People)

    TTHM - Preferred Alternative, ICR Matrix Method

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.4
$ 3.8
$ 6.9
$ 10.6
$ 15.0
$ 20.0
$ 24.0
$ 27.5
$ 30.7
$ 33.5
$ 35.9
$ 38.1
$ 40.0
$ 41.7
$ 43.3
$ 44.8
$ 46.1
$ 47.4
$ 47.9
$ 48.9
$ 607.4
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.6
$ 1.0
$ 1.6
$ 2.3
$ 3.1
$ 3.7
$ 4.2
$ 4.7
$ 5.1
$ 5.5
$ 5.8
$ 6.1
$ 6.3
$ 6.6
$ 6.8
$ 7.0
$ 7.2
$ 7.3
$ 7.4
$ 92.3
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 3.3
$ 8.7
$ 15.7
$ 24.3
$ 34.5
$ 46.0
$ 55.2
$ 63.3
$ 70.6
$ 77.2
$ 83.0
$ 87.9
$ 92.5
$ 96.5
$ 100.2
$ 103.6
$ 106.8
$ 109.9
$ 111.1
$ 113.5
$ 1,403.9
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.0
$ 2.5
$ 4.4
$ 6.7
$ 9.3
$ 12.2
$ 14.3
$ 16.3
$ 18.1
$ 19.8
$ 21.5
$ 23.1
$ 24.6
$ 26.1
$ 27.6
$ 29.0
$ 30.3
$ 31.7
$ 32.5
$ 33.7
$ 384.7
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.4
$ 0.7
$ 1.0
$ 1.4
$ 1.9
$ 2.2
$ 2.5
$ 2.8
$ 3.0
$ 3.3
$ 3.5
$ 3.7
$ 4.0
$ 4.2
$ 4.4
$ 4.6
$ 4.8
$ 4.9
$ 5.1
$ 58.5
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.4
$ 5.8
$ 10.1
$ 15.3
$ 21.3
$ 28.0
$ 32.9
$ 37.4
$ 41.7
$ 45.8
$ 49.6
$ 53.3
$ 57.0
$ 60.4
$ 63.8
$ 67.1
$ 70.3
$ 73.5
$ 75.4
$ 78.2
$ 889.3
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.4
$ 6.0
$ 10.7
$ 16.1
$ 22.1
$ 28.7
$ 33.3
$ 36.9
$ 39.8
$ 42.2
$ 44.3
$ 46.0
$ 47.5
$ 48.9
$ 50.1
$ 51.2
$ 52.2
$ 53.1
$ 53.3
$ 54.0
$ 738.6
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.4
$ 0.9
$ 1.6
$ 2.5
$ 3.4
$ 4.4
$ 5.1
$ 5.6
$ 6.1
$ 6.4
$ 6.7
$ 7.0
$ 7.2
$ 7.4
$ 7.6
$ 7.8
$ 7.9
$ 8.0
$ 8.1
$ 8.2
$ 112.3
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 5.5
$ 13.9
$ 24.5
$ 36.9
$ 50.9
$ 66.1
$ 76.5
$ 84.9
$ 91.7
$ 97.4
$ 102.2
$ 106.3
$ 110.0
$ 113.1
$ 115.9
$ 118.4
$ 120.8
$ 123.2
$ 123.5
$ 125.2
$ 1,706.8
    Notes:   All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
           Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
    Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
     Exhibit F.20p Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                         (Ground Water Systems Serving 10,000-49,999 People)

    TTHM - Preferred Alternative, ICR Matrix Method

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.8
$ 4.7
$ 8.5
$ 13.1
$ 18.5
$ 23.8
$ 28.2
$ 32.1
$ 35.5
$ 38.6
$ 41.3
$ 43.6
$ 45.8
$ 47.7
$ 49.4
$ 51.0
$ 52.5
$ 53.9
$ 54.5
$ 55.6
$ 700.0
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.3
$ 0.7
$ 1.3
$ 2.0
$ 2.8
$ 3.6
$ 4.3
$ 4.9
$ 5.4
$ 5.9
$ 6.3
$ 6.6
$ 7.0
$ 7.2
$ 7.5
$ 7.7
$ 8.0
$ 8.2
$ 8.3
$ 8.4
$ 106.4
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 4.1
$ 10.8
$ 19.5
$ 30.1
$ 42.6
$ 54.7
$ 64.8
$ 73.8
$ 81.8
$ 89.1
$ 95.3
$ 100.8
$ 105.8
$ 110.3
$ 114.3
$ 118.1
$ 121.6
$ 125.0
$ 126.4
$ 129.0
$ 1,617.9
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.3
$ 3.1
$ 5.5
$ 8.2
$ 11.4
$ 14.4
$ 16.7
$ 18.9
$ 20.9
$ 22.9
$ 24.7
$ 26.5
$ 28.3
$ 29.9
$ 31.6
$ 33.1
$ 34.7
$ 36.2
$ 37.1
$ 38.4
$ 444.0
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.5
$ 0.8
$ 1.3
$ 1.7
$ 2.2
$ 2.6
$ 2.9
$ 3.2
$ 3.5
$ 3.8
$ 4.0
$ 4.3
$ 4.6
$ 4.8
$ 5.0
$ 5.3
$ 5.5
$ 5.6
$ 5.8
$ 67.5
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.9
$ 7.2
$ 12.5
$ 18.9
$ 26.3
$ 33.1
$ 38.5
$ 43.5
$ 48.2
$ 52.8
$ 57.1
$ 61.3
$ 65.4
$ 69.3
$ 73.0
$ 76.7
$ 80.3
$ 83.9
$ 86.1
$ 89.2
$ 1,026.3
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.9
$ 7.5
$ 13.2
$ 19.9
$ 27.4
$ 34.0
$ 38.8
$ 42.6
$ 45.8
$ 48.4
$ 50.6
$ 52.5
$ 54.2
$ 55.7
$ 57.0
$ 58.2
$ 59.3
$ 60.3
$ 60.5
$ 61.3
$ 849.9
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.5
$ 1.1
$ 2.0
$ 3.0
$ 4.2
$ 5.2
$ 5.9
$ 6.5
$ 7.0
$ 7.4
$ 7.7
$ 8.0
$ 8.2
$ 8.5
$ 8.7
$ 8.8
$ 9.0
$ 9.1
$ 9.2
$ 9.3
$ 129.3
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 6.8
$ 17.2
$ 30.3
$ 45.7
$ 62.9
$ 78.2
$ 89.2
$ 98.1
$ 105.4
$ 111.7
$ 116.8
$ 121.3
$ 125.3
$ 128.8
$ 131.9
$ 134.7
$ 137.3
$ 139.9
$ 140.3
$ 142.2
$ 1,963.8
    Notes:   All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
           Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
    Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
     Exhibit F.20q Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                         (Ground Water Systems Serving 50,000-99,999 People)

    TTHM - Preferred Alternative, ICR Matrix Method

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.7
$ 2.0
$ 3.5
$ 5.5
$ 7.4
$ 8.9
$ 10.3
$ 11.6
$ 12.7
$ 13.7
$ 14.5
$ 15.3
$ 16.0
$ 16.6
$ 17.1
$ 17.7
$ 18.2
$ 18.6
$ 18.8
$ 19.2
$ 248.3
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.3
$ 0.5
$ 0.8
$ 1.1
$ 1.4
$ 1.6
$ 1.8
$ 1.9
$ 2.1
$ 2.2
$ 2.3
$ 2.4
$ 2.5
$ 2.6
$ 2.7
$ 2.8
$ 2.8
$ 2.8
$ 2.9
$ 37.8
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.7
$ 4.5
$ 8.2
$ 12.6
$ 17.0
$ 20.6
$ 23.8
$ 26.7
$ 29.3
$ 31.6
$ 33.5
$ 35.3
$ 36.9
$ 38.3
$ 39.7
$ 40.9
$ 42.1
$ 43.2
$ 43.6
$ 44.5
$ 573.9
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.5
$ 1.3
$ 2.3
$ 3.4
$ 4.5
$ 5.3
$ 6.1
$ 6.8
$ 7.5
$ 8.1
$ 8.8
$ 9.4
$ 9.9
$ 10.5
$ 11.0
$ 11.6
$ 12.1
$ 12.6
$ 12.9
$ 13.4
$ 158.0
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.5
$ 0.7
$ 0.8
$ 0.9
$ 1.0
$ 1.1
$ 1.2
$ 1.3
$ 1.4
$ 1.5
$ 1.6
$ 1.7
$ 1.8
$ 1.8
$ 1.9
$ 2.0
$ 2.0
$ 24.0
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.2
$ 3.0
$ 5.2
$ 7.9
$ 10.4
$ 12.3
$ 14.0
$ 15.7
$ 17.3
$ 18.8
$ 20.2
$ 21.6
$ 23.0
$ 24.3
$ 25.5
$ 26.8
$ 28.0
$ 29.2
$ 29.9
$ 31.0
$ 365.3
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.2
$ 3.1
$ 5.5
$ 8.3
$ 10.8
$ 12.6
$ 14.0
$ 15.2
$ 16.1
$ 16.9
$ 17.6
$ 18.2
$ 18.8
$ 19.2
$ 19.7
$ 20.0
$ 20.4
$ 20.7
$ 20.8
$ 21.0
$ 300.4
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.5
$ 0.8
$ 1.3
$ 1.7
$ 1.9
$ 2.1
$ 2.3
$ 2.5
$ 2.6
$ 2.7
$ 2.8
$ 2.9
$ 2.9
$ 3.0
$ 3.0
$ 3.1
$ 3.1
$ 3.2
$ 3.2
$ 45.7
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.8
$ 7.2
$ 12.7
$ 19.1
$ 24.9
$ 29.0
$ 32.2
$ 34.9
$ 37.2
$ 39.1
$ 40.7
$ 42.1
$ 43.4
$ 44.5
$ 45.5
$ 46.4
$ 47.3
$ 48.1
$ 48.2
$ 48.8
$ 694.1
    Notes:   All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
           Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
    Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
      Exhibit F.20r Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                        (Ground Water Systems Serving 100,000-999,999 People)

    TTHM - Preferred Alternative, ICR Matrix Method

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.1
$ 5.4
$ 9.8
$ 15.2
$ 19.4
$ 23.1
$ 26.4
$ 29.4
$ 32.0
$ 34.3
$ 36.3
$ 38.1
$ 39.7
$ 41.2
$ 42.5
$ 43.8
$ 45.0
$ 46.1
$ 46.5
$ 47.4
$ 623.6
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.3
$ 0.8
$ 1.5
$ 2.3
$ 3.0
$ 3.5
$ 4.0
$ 4.5
$ 4.9
$ 5.2
$ 5.5
$ 5.8
$ 6.0
$ 6.3
$ 6.5
$ 6.6
$ 6.8
$ 7.0
$ 7.0
$ 7.2
$ 94.8
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 4.8
$ 12.5
$ 22.6
$ 34.9
$ 44.5
$ 53.1
$ 60.8
$ 67.7
$ 73.8
$ 79.2
$ 83.8
$ 87.9
$ 91.8
$ 95.2
$ 98.4
$ 101.3
$ 104.1
$ 106.9
$ 107.8
$ 110.0
$ 1,441.1
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.5
$ 3.6
$ 6.3
$ 9.6
$ 11.7
$ 13.7
$ 15.5
$ 17.2
$ 18.9
$ 20.4
$ 21.9
$ 23.4
$ 24.8
$ 26.2
$ 27.5
$ 28.8
$ 30.1
$ 31.3
$ 32.1
$ 33.1
$ 397.7
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.6
$ 1.0
$ 1.5
$ 1.8
$ 2.1
$ 2.4
$ 2.6
$ 2.9
$ 3.1
$ 3.3
$ 3.6
$ 3.8
$ 4.0
$ 4.2
$ 4.4
$ 4.6
$ 4.7
$ 4.9
$ 5.0
$ 60.5
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 3.4
$ 8.3
$ 14.5
$ 22.0
$ 27.0
$ 31.5
$ 35.7
$ 39.7
$ 43.5
$ 47.2
$ 50.7
$ 54.0
$ 57.4
$ 60.6
$ 63.7
$ 66.6
$ 69.6
$ 72.6
$ 74.3
$ 76.9
$ 919.1
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 3.4
$ 8.7
$ 15.3
$ 23.1
$ 28.2
$ 32.2
$ 35.5
$ 38.1
$ 40.3
$ 42.2
$ 43.8
$ 45.2
$ 46.5
$ 47.6
$ 48.6
$ 49.5
$ 50.4
$ 51.2
$ 51.3
$ 51.9
$ 753.0
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.5
$ 1.3
$ 2.3
$ 3.5
$ 4.3
$ 4.9
$ 5.4
$ 5.8
$ 6.1
$ 6.4
$ 6.7
$ 6.9
$ 7.1
$ 7.2
$ 7.4
$ 7.5
$ 7.6
$ 7.8
$ 7.8
$ 7.9
$ 114.5
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 7.9
$ 19.9
$ 35.2
$ 53.0
$ 64.9
$ 74.1
$ 81.5
$ 87.7
$ 92.9
$ 97.4
$ 101.1
$ 104.4
$ 107.4
$ 110.1
$ 112.4
$ 114.6
$ 116.7
$ 118.8
$ 119.0
$ 120.5
$ 1,739.5
    Notes:   All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
           Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
    Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
     Exhibit F.20s Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                          (Ground Water Systems Serving >1,000,000 People)

    TTHM - Preferred Alternative, ICR Matrix Method

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.3
$ 0.9
$ 1.6
$ 2.5
$ 3.2
$ 3.8
$ 4.4
$ 4.9
$ 5.3
$ 5.7
$ 6.0
$ 6.3
$ 6.6
$ 6.9
$ 7.1
$ 7.3
$ 7.5
$ 7.7
$ 7.7
$ 7.9
$ 103.9
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.6
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.8
$ 0.9
$ 0.9
$ 1.0
$ 1.0
$ 1.0
$ 1.1
$ 1.1
$ 1.1
$ 1.2
$ 1.2
$ 1.2
$ 15.8
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.8
$ 2.1
$ 3.8
$ 5.8
$ 7.4
$ 8.8
$ 10.1
$ 11.3
$ 12.3
$ 13.2
$ 14.0
$ 14.6
$ 15.3
$ 15.9
$ 16.4
$ 16.9
$ 17.3
$ 17.8
$ 18.0
$ 18.3
$ 240.0
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.6
$ 1.1
$ 1.6
$ 2.0
$ 2.3
$ 2.6
$ 2.9
$ 3.1
$ 3.4
$ 3.7
$ 3.9
$ 4.1
$ 4.4
$ 4.6
$ 4.8
$ 5.0
$ 5.2
$ 5.3
$ 5.5
$ 66.2
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 10.1
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.6
$ 1.4
$ 2.4
$ 3.7
$ 4.5
$ 5.2
$ 5.9
$ 6.6
$ 7.2
$ 7.9
$ 8.4
$ 9.0
$ 9.6
$ 10.1
$ 10.6
$ 11.1
$ 11.6
$ 12.1
$ 12.4
$ 12.8
$ 153.1
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.6
$ 1.4
$ 2.5
$ 3.8
$ 4.7
$ 5.4
$ 5.9
$ 6.3
$ 6.7
$ 7.0
$ 7.3
$ 7.5
$ 7.7
$ 7.9
$ 8.1
$ 8.2
$ 8.4
$ 8.5
$ 8.5
$ 8.6
$ 125.4
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.4
$ 0.6
$ 0.7
$ 0.8
$ 0.9
$ 1.0
$ 1.0
$ 1.1
$ 1.1
$ 1.1
$ 1.2
$ 1.2
$ 1.2
$ 1.3
$ 1.3
$ 1.3
$ 1.3
$ 1.3
$ 19.1
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.3
$ 3.3
$ 5.9
$ 8.8
$ 10.8
$ 12.3
$ 13.6
$ 14.6
$ 15.5
$ 16.2
$ 16.8
$ 17.4
$ 17.9
$ 18.3
$ 18.7
$ 19.1
$ 19.4
$ 19.8
$ 19.8
$ 20.1
$ 289.7
    Notes:   All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
           Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
    Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
      Exhibit F.20t Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                                      (All Ground Water Systems)

 TTHM - Preferred Alternative, ICR Matrix Method
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 7.8
$ 20.4
$ 36.9
$ 57.1
$ 77.9
$ 98.9
$ 116.4
$ 131.9
$ 145.8
$ 158.0
$ 168.7
$ 178.1
$ 186.5
$ 194.1
$ 201.1
$ 207.5
$ 213.5
$ 219.1
$ 221.5
$ 226.0
$ 2,867.3
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.2
$ 3.1
$ 5.7
$ 8.7
$ 11.9
$ 15.1
$ 17.8
$ 20.1
$ 22.2
$ 24.1
$ 25.7
$ 27.1
$ 28.4
$ 29.5
$ 30.6
$ 31.5
$ 32.4
$ 33.2
$ 33.6
$ 34.2
$ 436.0
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 17.9
$ 46.9
$ 84.9
$ 131.2
$ 179.1
$ 227.5
$ 267.7
$ 303.7
$ 335.8
$ 364.5
$ 389.4
$ 411.2
$ 431 .3
$ 449.1
$ 465.4
$ 480.3
$ 494.6
$ 508.4
$ 513.7
$ 524.4
$ 6,627.1
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 5.6
$ 13.6
$ 23.8
$ 35.9
$ 47.8
$ 59.6
$ 69.0
$ 77.7
$ 86.0
$ 93.8
$ 101.3
$ 108.5
$ 115.5
$ 122.2
$ 128.8
$ 135.1
$ 141.3
$ 147.4
$ 151.3
$ 156.6
$ 1,820.6
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.9
$ 2.1
$ 3.6
$ 5.5
$ 7.3
$ 9.1
$ 10.5
$ 11.9
$ 13.1
$ 14.3
$ 15.4
$ 16.5
$ 17.6
$ 18.6
$ 19.6
$ 20.5
$ 21.4
$ 22.3
$ 22.9
$ 23.7
$ 276.8
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 12.8
$ 31.3
$ 54.6
$ 82.5
$ 109.9
$ 137.0
$ 158.7
$ 178.9
$ 198.0
$ 216.4
$ 233.8
$ 250.5
$ 267.1
$ 282.8
$ 298.0
$ 312.8
$ 327.4
$ 341 .9
$ 350.7
$ 363.4
$ 4,208.5
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 12.8
$ 32.5
$ 57.5
$ 86.7
$ 114.5
$ 140.5
$ 159.4
$ 174.6
$ 187.0
$ 197.4
$ 206.2
$ 213.8
$ 220.4
$ 226.3
$ 231.6
$ 236.4
$ 240.8
$ 245.0
$ 245.6
$ 248.7
$ 3,477.7
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.0
$ 5.0
$ 8.8
$ 13.3
$ 17.5
$ 21.5
$ 24.4
$ 26.7
$ 28.5
$ 30.1
$ 31.4
$ 32.5
$ 33.5
$ 34.4
$ 35.2
$ 35.9
$ 36.5
$ 37.1
$ 37.2
$ 37.6
$ 529.0
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 29.5
$ 74.8
$ 132.1
$ 199.1
$ 263.3
$ 323.2
$ 366.7
$ 401 .8
$ 430.8
$ 455.5
$ 476.0
$ 493.6
$ 509.7
$ 523.5
$ 535.9
$ 547.1
$ 557.8
$ 568.3
$ 569.6
$ 577.2
$ 8,035.4
 Notes:  All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
       Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
 Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
       Exhibit F.20u  Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                                           (All Water Systems)

 TTHM - Preferred Alternative, ICR Matrix Method
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
-
-
-
$
$ 170.1
$ 441 .6
$ 799.6
$ 1 ,237.5
$ 1,613.7
$ 1 ,963.2
$ 2,276.0
$ 2,557.9
$ 2,805.8
$ 3,019.2
$ 3,205.4
$ 3,370.1
$ 3,518.0
$ 3,652.1
$ 3,775.1
$ 3,888.9
$ 3,995.0
$ 4,094.7
$ 4,134.7
$ 4,213.1
$ 54,731.8
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
-
-
-
$
$ 26.0
$ 67.6
$ 122.4
$ 189.4
$ 246.7
$ 300.2
$ 347.7
$ 390.6
$ 427.8
$ 459.9
$ 488.1
$ 512.6
$ 534.9
$ 555.5
$ 573.9
$ 590.3
$ 605.6
$ 620.0
$ 626.6
$ 637.6
$ 8,323.3
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
-
-
-
$
$ 391.1
$ 1,015.8
$ 1 ,836.8
$ 2,842.6
$ 3,709.7
$ 4,515.0
$ 5,234.0
$ 5,888.0
$ 6,464.1
$ 6,967.4
$ 7,400.5
$ 7,781.3
$ 8,136.3
$ 8,448.7
$ 8,736.5
$ 9,000.4
$ 9,253.9
$ 9,499.5
$ 9,587.0
$ 9,778.0
$ 126,486.6
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
-
-
-
-
$ 144.5
$ 346.0
$ 595.1
$ 886.9
$ 1 ,097.4
$ 1 ,282.3
$ 1 ,443.6
$ 1 ,593.4
$ 1 ,734.6
$ 1 ,868.9
$ 1 ,997.5
$ 2,121.1
$ 2,240.4
$ 2,355.8
$ 2,467.7
$ 2,576.5
$ 2,682.4
$ 2,785.7
$ 2,849.2
$ 2,939.5
$ 36,008.4
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
-
-
-
$
$ 22.1
$ 53.0
$ 91.1
$ 135.8
$ 167.8
$ 196.1
$ 220.5
$ 243.3
$ 264.5
$ 284.7
$ 304.2
$ 322.6
$ 340.7
$ 358.3
$ 375.1
$ 391.1
$ 406.6
$ 421 .8
$ 431 .8
$ 444.8
$ 5,475.7
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
-
-
-
$
$ 332.1
$ 795.9
$ 1,367.1
$ 2,037.2
$ 2,522.7
$ 2,949.0
$ 3,319.9
$ 3,667.8
$ 3,996.2
$ 4,312.9
$ 4,61 1 .7
$ 4,897.5
$ 5,181.6
$ 5,449.9
$ 5,710.9
$ 5,963.0
$ 6,213.4
$ 6,462.6
$ 6,606.2
$ 6,822.1
$ 83,219.6
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
-
-
-
$
$ 302.2
$ 749.9
$ 1 ,306.4
$ 1 ,949.7
$ 2,412.5
$ 2,782.5
$ 3,069.1
$ 3,303.4
$ 3,499.1
$ 3,665.7
$ 3,809.8
$ 3,936.2
$ 4,048.8
$ 4,150.3
$ 4,243.0
$ 4,328.7
$ 4,408.7
$ 4,484.2
$ 4,497.1
$ 4,554.2
$ 65,501.4
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
-
-
-
$
$ 46.3
$ 114.8
$ 199.9
$ 298.4
$ 368.8
$ 425.5
$ 468.8
$ 504.4
$ 533.5
$ 558.4
$ 580.1
$ 598.7
$ 615.7
$ 631 .2
$ 645.0
$ 657.0
$ 668.3
$ 679.0
$ 681 .5
$ 689.2
$ 9,964.6
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
-
-
-
$
$ 694.7
$ 1 ,724.9
$ 3,001.1
$ 4,478.2
$ 5,545.9
$ 6,399.2
$ 7,058.1
$ 7,604.0
$ 8,061.4
$ 8,459.4
$ 8,795.7
$ 9,088.3
$ 9,363.9
$ 9,601.1
$ 9,819.3
$ 10,018.3
$ 10,212.3
$ 10,403.2
$ 10,427.2
$ 10,569.5
$ 151,325.7
 Notes:   All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
        Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
 Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.20J and F.20t.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
    Exhibit F.20v Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal
                                         Cases, at 3% Discount Rate
                                             (All Water Systems)

 TTHM - Preferred Alternative, ICR Matrix Method
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Ann.
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 146.8
$ 369.9
$ 650.1
$ 976.9
$ 1,236.8
$ 1,460.8
$ 1,644.2
$ 1,794.0
$ 1,910.6
$ 1,996.0
$ 2,057.4
$ 2,100.2
$ 2,128.4
$ 2,145.2
$ 2,152.9
$ 2,153.2
$ 2,147.5
$ 2,137.0
$ 2,095.0
$ 2,072.6
$ 33,375.6
$ 1,916.7
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 22.5
$ 56.6
$ 99.5
$ 149.5
$ 189.1
$ 223.4
$ 251.2
$ 273.9
$ 291.3
$ 304.1
$ 313.3
$ 319.4
$ 323.7
$ 326.3
$ 327.3
$ 326.8
$ 325.5
$ 323.6
$ 317.5
$ 313.7
$ 5,078.0
$ 291.6
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 337.4
$ 850.7
$ 1,493.5
$ 2,243.9
$ 2,843.2
$ 3,359.6
$ 3,781.2
$ 4,129.7
$ 4,401.7
$ 4,606.3
$ 4,750.1
$ 4,849.1
$ 4,922.6
$ 4,962.7
$ 4,982.3
$ 4,983.3
$ 4,974.4
$ 4,957.7
$ 4,857.7
$ 4,810.2
$ 77,097.1
$ 4,427.5
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 124.6
$ 289.8
$ 483.9
$ 700.1
$ 841.1
$ 954.1
$ 1,042.9
$ 1,117.6
$ 1,181.2
$ 1,235.6
$ 1,282.1
$ 1,321.8
$ 1,355.5
$ 1,383.8
$ 1,407.3
$ 1,426.5
$ 1,441.9
$ 1,453.8
$ 1,443.6
$ 1,446.0
$ 21,933.3
$ 1,259.6
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 19.1
$ 44.4
$ 74.0
$ 107.2
$ 128.6
$ 145.9
$ 159.3
$ 170.6
$ 180.1
$ 188.2
$ 195.2
$ 201.0
$ 206.1
$ 210.5
$ 213.9
$ 216.5
$ 218.6
$ 220.1
$ 218.8
$ 218.8
$ 3,337.0
$ 191.6
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 286.5
$ 666.5
$ 1,111.6
$ 1,608.2
$ 1,933.5
$ 2,194.3
$ 2,398.3
$ 2,572.5
$ 2,721.2
$ 2,851.3
$ 2,960.1
$ 3,051.9
$ 3,135.0
$ 3,201.2
$ 3,256.9
$ 3,301.6
$ 3,340.0
$ 3,372.8
$ 3,347.3
$ 3,356.0
$ 50,666.7
$ 2,909.7
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 260.7
$ 628.1
$ 1,062.2
$ 1,539.1
$ 1,849.0
$ 2,070.4
$ 2,217.2
$ 2,316.9
$ 2,382.7
$ 2,423.5
$ 2,445.3
$ 2,452.9
$ 2,449.6
$ 2,437.8
$ 2,419.7
$ 2,396.7
$ 2,369.9
$ 2,340.3
$ 2,278.6
$ 2,240.3
$ 40,581.0
$ 2,330.5
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 39.9
$ 96.2
$ 162.6
$ 235.6
$ 282.7
$ 316.6
$ 338.7
$ 353.8
$ 363.3
$ 369.2
$ 372.3
$ 373.1
$ 372.5
$ 370.8
$ 367.8
$ 363.8
$ 359.2
$ 354.3
$ 345.3
$ 339.0
$ 6,176.7
$ 354.7
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 599.2
$ 1,444.6
$ 2,440.2
$ 3,535.2
$ 4,250.4
$ 4,761.6
$ 5,098.9
$ 5,333.3
$ 5,489.4
$ 5,592.6
$ 5,645.7
$ 5,663.5
$ 5,665.3
$ 5,639.6
$ 5,599.8
$ 5,546.9
$ 5,489.6
$ 5,429.4
$ 5,283.4
$ 5,199.5
$ 93,708.1
$ 5,381.5
 Notes:     Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005.
          Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate.
          Detail may not add  exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
 Source:    Derived from Exhibit F.20u.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
   Exhibit F.20w Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal
                                        Cases, at 7% Discount Rate
                                            (All Water Systems)

 TTHM - Preferred Alternative, ICR Matrix Method

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Ann.
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 121.3
$ 294.3
$ 497.9
$ 720.3
$ 877.8
$ 998.0
$ 1 ,081 .3
$ 1,135.7
$ 1,164.3
$ 1,170.9
$ 1,161.8
$ 1,141.6
$ 1,113.7
$ 1 ,080.5
$ 1 ,043.8
$ 1 ,005.0
$ 964.8
$ 924.2
$ 872.2
$ 830.6
$ 18,200.0
$ 1,561.8
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 18.6
$ 45.1
$ 76.2
$ 110.2
$ 134.2
$ 152.6
$ 165.2
$ 173.4
$ 177.5
$ 178.4
$ 176.9
$ 173.6
$ 169.4
$ 164.3
$ 158.7
$ 152.5
$ 146.3
$ 1 39.9
$ 1 32.2
$ 1 25.7
$ 2,770.9
$ 237.8
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 278.8
$ 676.9
$ 1,143.9
$ 1 ,654.4
$ 2,017.8
$ 2,295.2
$ 2,486.7
$ 2,614.3
$ 2,682.4
$ 2,702.1
$ 2,682.3
$ 2,635.8
$ 2,575.7
$ 2,499.7
$ 2,415.7
$ 2,325.9
$ 2,234.9
$ 2,144.2
$ 2,022.4
$ 1 ,927.7
$ 42,016.6
$ 3,605.5
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 103.0
$ 230.6
$ 370.6
$ 516.2
$ 596.9
$ 651 .8
$ 685.8
$ 707.5
$ 719.8
$ 724.8
$ 724.0
$ 718.5
$ 709.3
$ 697.0
$ 682.3
$ 665.8
$ 647.8
$ 628.8
$ 601 .0
$ 579.5
$ 11,961.1
$ 1,026.4
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 15.8
$ 35.3
$ 56.7
$ 79.0
$ 91.3
$ 99.7
$ 104.8
$ 108.0
$ 109.8
$ 110.4
$ 110.2
$ 109.3
$ 107.9
$ 106.0
$ 103.7
$ 101.1
$ 98.2
$ 95.2
$ 91.1
$ 87.7
$ 1,821.0
$ 156.3
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 236.8
$ 530.3
$ 851 .3
$ 1,185.7
$ 1 ,372.2
$ 1 ,499.1
$ 1 ,577.2
$ 1 ,628.6
$ 1 ,658.3
$ 1 ,672.6
$ 1 ,671 .5
$ 1 ,658.9
$ 1 ,640.4
$ 1,612.4
$ 1,579.1
$ 1 ,541 .0
$ 1 ,500.6
$ 1 ,458.7
$ 1 ,393.6
$ 1 ,344.9
$ 27,613.3
$ 2,369.5
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 215.5
$ 499.7
$ 813.6
$ 1,134.7
$ 1,312.2
$ 1,414.5
$ 1,458.1
$ 1 ,466.7
$ 1 ,452.0
$ 1 ,421 .6
$ 1 ,380.8
$ 1 ,333.3
$ 1,281.7
$ 1 ,227.9
$ 1,173.2
$ 1,118.6
$ 1 ,064.8
$ 1,012.2
$ 948.6
$ 897.8
$ 22,627.7
$ 1,941.7
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 33.0
$ 76.5
$ 124.5
$ 173.7
$ 200.6
$ 216.3
$ 222.7
$ 224.0
$ 221 .4
$ 216.6
$ 210.3
$ 202.8
$ 194.9
$ 186.8
$ 178.3
$ 169.8
$ 161.4
$ 153.2
$ 143.8
$ 135.9
$ 3,446.4
$ 295.7
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 495.3
$ 1,149.4
$ 1 ,868.9
$ 2,606.4
$ 3,016.6
$ 3,253.0
$ 3,353.2
$ 3,376.3
$ 3,345.2
$ 3,280.7
$ 3,188.0
$ 3,078.5
$ 2,964.4
$ 2,840.6
$ 2,715.1
$ 2,588.9
$ 2,466.4
$ 2,348.1
$ 2,199.6
$ 2,083.7
$ 52,218.4
$ 4,480.9
 Notes:     Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to
           Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate.
           Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
 Source:    Derived from Exhibit F.20u.
                                                               2005.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
                            Exhibit F.20x Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 3% Discount Rate, by Small & Large Size Categories
                                                                                                 (Surface Water Systems)
TTHM - Preferred Alternative, ICR Matrix Method
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Ann.
Small Systems
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 3.5
$ 8.8
$ 15.5
$ 23.2
$ 31.9
$ 41.3
$ 48.1
$ 53.6
$ 57.9
$ 61.4
$ 64.0
$ 65.9
$ 67.2
$ 68.0
$ 68.6
$ 68.8
$ 68.8
$ 68.6
$ 67.4
$ 66.8
$ 1,019.2
$ 58.5
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.5
$ 1.3
$ 2.4
$ 3.6
$ 4.9
$ 6.3
$ 7.4
$ 8.2
$ 8.8
$ 9.4
$ 9.7
$ 10.0
$ 10.2
$ 10.3
$ 10.4
$ 10.4
$ 10.4
$ 10.4
$ 10.2
$ 10.1
$ 155.0
$ 8.9
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 8.0
$ 20.2
$ 35.5
$ 53.3
$ 73.3
$ 95.0
$ 110.7
$ 123.3
$ 133.5
$ 141.7
$ 147.8
$ 152.1
$ 155.4
$ 157.4
$ 158.7
$ 159.2
$ 159.3
$ 159.1
$ 156.2
$ 154.9
$ 2,354.7
$ 135.2
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.5
$ 5.9
$ 10.0
$ 14.6
$ 19.7
$ 25.1
$ 28.7
$ 31.7
$ 34.2
$ 36.4
$ 38.3
$ 40.0
$ 41.4
$ 42.6
$ 43.6
$ 44.5
$ 45.3
$ 45.9
$ 45.8
$ 46.0
$ 642.0
$ 36.9
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.4
$ 0.9
$ 1.5
$ 2.2
$ 3.0
$ 3.8
$ 4.4
$ 4.8
$ 5.2
$ 5.5
$ 5.8
$ 6.1
$ 6.3
$ 6.5
$ 6.6
$ 6.8
$ 6.9
$ 6.9
$ 6.9
$ 7.0
$ 97.6
$ 5.6
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 5.7
$ 13.5
$ 22.9
$ 33.5
$ 45.3
$ 57.8
$ 66.0
$ 72.9
$ 78.8
$ 84.0
$ 88.4
$ 92.2
$ 95.7
$ 98.5
$ 101.0
$ 103.0
$ 104.8
$ 106.4
$ 106.1
$ 106.8
$ 1,483.4
$ 85.2
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 5.7
$ 14.0
$ 24.1
$ 35.2
$ 47.1
$ 59.3
$ 66.7
$ 71.8
$ 75.2
$ 77.5
$ 78.9
$ 79.6
$ 79.8
$ 79.7
$ 79.3
$ 78.6
$ 77.8
$ 76.9
$ 74.9
$ 73.7
$ 1,255.9
$ 72.1
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.9
$ 2.1
$ 3.7
$ 5.4
$ 7.2
$ 9.1
$ 10.2
$ 11.0
$ 11.5
$ 11.8
$ 12.0
$ 12.1
$ 12.1
$ 12.1
$ 12.1
$ 11.9
$ 11.8
$ 11.6
$ 11.4
$ 11.2
$ 191.1
$ 11.0
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 13.1
$ 32.3
$ 55.3
$ 80.9
$ 108.2
$ 136.5
$ 153.4
$ 165.2
$ 173.3
$ 178.8
$ 182.1
$ 183.8
$ 184.7
$ 184.4
$ 183.5
$ 182.0
$ 180.3
$ 178.5
$ 173.7
$ 171.0
$ 2,900.9
$ 166.6
Large Systems
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 136.6
$ 344.0
$ 604.6
$ 908.6
$ 1,145.2
$ 1,345.9
$ 1,512.0
$ 1,647.9
$ 1,753.4
$ 1,830.2
$ 1,885.2
$ 1,923.3
$ 1,948.4
$ 1,963.2
$ 1,969.6
$ 1,969.5
$ 1,963.9
$ 1,954.0
$ 1,915.4
$ 1,894.7
$ 30,615.6
$ 1,758.2
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 20.9
$ 52.7
$ 92.5
$ 139.1
$ 175.1
$ 205.8
$ 231.0
$ 251.6
$ 267.4
$ 278.8
$ 287.1
$ 292.5
$ 296.3
$ 298.6
$ 299.4
$ 298.9
$ 297.7
$ 295.9
$ 290.3
$ 286.7
$ 4,658.2
$ 267.5
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 313.9
$ 791.3
$ 1,389.0
$ 2,087.0
$ 2,632.5
$ 3,095.3
$ 3,477.1
$ 3,793.4
$ 4,039.6
$ 4,223.6
$ 4,352.3
$ 4,440.7
$ 4,506.2
$ 4,541.5
$ 4,558.2
$ 4,558.1
$ 4,549.2
$ 4,533.2
$ 4,441.2
$ 4,397.2
$ 70,720.7
$ 4,061.3
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 117.4
$ 272.5
$ 454.6
$ 657.2
$ 784.8
$ 884.6
$ 964.3
$ 1,031.4
$ 1,088.4
$ 1,137.2
$ 1,178.8
$ 1,214.2
$ 1,244.2
$ 1,269.4
$ 1,290.2
$ 1,307.2
$ 1,320.7
$ 1,331.0
$ 1,321.3
$ 1,323.0
$ 20,192.5
$ 1,159.6
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 18.0
$ 41.7
$ 69.6
$ 100.6
$ 120.0
$ 135.3
$ 147.3
$ 157.5
$ 166.0
$ 173.2
$ 179.5
$ 184.7
$ 189.2
$ 193.1
$ 196.1
$ 198.4
$ 200.2
$ 201.5
$ 200.2
$ 200.2
$ 3,072.3
$ 176.4
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 269.8
$ 626.8
$ 1,044.3
$ 1,509.6
$ 1,804.0
$ 2,034.5
$ 2,217.7
$ 2,374.2
$ 2,507.6
$ 2,624.2
$ 2,721.5
$ 2,803.6
$ 2,877.7
$ 2,936.6
$ 2,985.9
$ 3,025.4
$ 3,059.2
$ 3,088.0
$ 3,063.5
$ 3,070.5
$ 46,644.4
$ 2,678.7
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 243.9
$ 586.8
$ 991.4
$ 1,435.4
$ 1,714.1
$ 1,906.5
$ 2,035.3
$ 2,122.7
$ 2,180.2
$ 2,215.5
$ 2,234.1
$ 2,240.1
$ 2,236.4
$ 2,225.2
$ 2,208.4
$ 2,187.2
$ 2,162.6
$ 2,135.5
$ 2,079.2
$ 2,044.3
$ 37,185.0
$ 2,135.5
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 37.3
$ 89.8
$ 151.7
$ 219.7
$ 262.1
$ 291.5
$ 310.9
$ 324.1
$ 332.4
$ 337.5
$ 340.2
$ 340.7
$ 340.1
$ 338.4
$ 335.7
$ 332.0
$ 327.8
$ 323.3
$ 315.1
$ 309.4
$ 5,659.9
$ 325.0
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 560.7
$ 1,349.6
$ 2,277.5
$ 3,297.1
$ 3,940.5
$ 4,384.7
$ 4,680.6
$ 4,886.2
$ 5,022.8
$ 5,112.7
$ 5,158.0
$ 5,172.2
$ 5,172.3
$ 5,147.8
$ 5,110.7
$ 5,062.0
$ 5,009.5
$ 4,954.3
$ 4,821.1
$ 4,744.5
$ 85,864.6
$ 4,931.0
          Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005.
          Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate.
          Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
          Derived from Exhibits F.20a through F.20L
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
                                                                                                                                                                                                           December 2005

-------
                            Exhibit F.20y Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 7% Discount Rate, by Small & Large Size Categories
                                                                                                 (Surface Water Systems)
 TTHM - Preferred Alternative, ICR Matrix Method
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Ann.
Small Systems
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.9
$ 7.0
$ 11.8
$ 17.1
$ 22.6
$ 28.2
$ 31.6
$ 33.9
$ 35.3
$ 36.0
$ 36.2
$ 35.8
$ 35.2
$ 34.3
$ 33.2
$ 32.1
$ 30.9
$ 29.7
$ 28.0
$ 26.8
$ 548.7
$ 47.1
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.4
$ 1.1
$ 1.8
$ 2.6
$ 3.5
$ 4.3
$ 4.8
$ 5.2
$ 5.4
$ 5.5
$ 5.5
$ 5.4
$ 5.3
$ 5.2
$ 5.1
$ 4.9
$ 4.7
$ 4.5
$ 4.3
$ 4.0
$ 83.5
$ 7.2
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 6.6
$ 16.1
$ 27.2
$ 39.3
$ 52.0
$ 64.9
$ 72.8
$ 78.0
$ 81.3
$ 83.1
$ 83.5
$ 82.7
$ 81.3
$ 79.3
$ 76.9
$ 74.3
$ 71.6
$ 68.8
$ 65.0
$ 62.1
$ 1,267.0
$ 108.7
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.0
$ 4.7
$ 7.6
$ 10.8
$ 14.0
$ 17.2
$ 18.9
$ 20.0
$ 20.8
$ 21.4
$ 21.6
$ 21.7
$ 21.6
$ 21.5
$ 21.2
$ 20.8
$ 20.3
$ 19.8
$ 19.0
$ 18.4
$ 343.4
$ 29.5
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.3
$ 0.7
$ 1.2
$ 1.6
$ 2.1
$ 2.6
$ 2.9
$ 3.1
$ 3.2
$ 3.3
$ 3.3
$ 3.3
$ 3.3
$ 3.3
$ 3.2
$ 3.2
$ 3.1
$ 3.0
$ 2.9
$ 2.8
$ 52.3
$ 4.5
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 4.7
$ 10.7
$ 17.5
$ 24.7
$ 32.1
$ 39.5
$ 43.4
$ 46.1
$ 48.0
$ 49.3
$ 49.9
$ 50.1
$ 50.1
$ 49.6
$ 49.0
$ 48.1
$ 47.1
$ 46.0
$ 44.2
$ 42.8
$ 793.0
$ 68.1
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 4.7
$ 11.2
$ 18.4
$ 26.0
$ 33.4
$ 40.5
$ 43.9
$ 45.4
$ 45.8
$ 45.4
$ 44.5
$ 43.3
$ 41.8
$ 40.1
$ 38.4
$ 36.7
$ 35.0
$ 33.3
$ 31.2
$ 29.5
$ 688.7
$ 59.1
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.7
$ 1.7
$ 2.8
$ 4.0
$ 5.1
$ 6.2
$ 6.7
$ 6.9
$ 7.0
$ 6.9
$ 6.8
$ 6.6
$ 6.4
$ 6.1
$ 5.8
$ 5.6
$ 5.3
$ 5.0
$ 4.7
$ 4.5
$ 104.9
$ 9.0
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 10.8
$ 25.7
$ 42.4
$ 59.7
$ 76.8
$ 93.2
$ 100.9
$ 104.6
$ 105.6
$ 104.9
$ 102.8
$ 99.9
$ 96.6
$ 92.9
$ 89.0
$ 85.0
$ 81.0
$ 77.2
$ 72.3
$ 68.5
$ 1,589.7
$ 136.4
Large Systems
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 112.9
$ 273.7
$ 463.1
$ 669.9
$ 812.7
$ 919.5
$ 994.3
$ 1,043.2
$ 1,068.5
$ 1,073.6
$ 1,064.5
$ 1,045.4
$ 1,019.5
$ 988.8
$ 955.0
$ 919.2
$ 882.4
$ 845.1
$ 797.4
$ 759.3
$ 16,708.2
$ 1,433.7
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 17.3
$ 41.9
$ 70.9
$ 102.5
$ 124.3
$ 140.6
$ 151.9
$ 159.3
$ 162.9
$ 163.5
$ 162.1
$ 159.0
$ 155.0
$ 150.4
$ 145.2
$ 139.5
$ 133.8
$ 128.0
$ 120.8
$ 114.9
$ 2,543.8
$ 218.3
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 259.5
$ 629.6
$ 1,063.8
$ 1,538.7
$ 1,868.3
$ 2,114.7
$ 2,286.7
$ 2,401.4
$ 2,461.7
$ 2,477.6
$ 2,457.7
$ 2,413.8
$ 2,357.9
$ 2,287.5
$ 2,210.1
$ 2,127.4
$ 2,043.9
$ 1,960.6
$ 1,849.0
$ 1,762.2
$ 38,572.0
$ 3,309.9
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 97.0
$ 216.8
$ 348.2
$ 484.5
$ 557.0
$ 604.4
$ 634.2
$ 652.9
$ 663.3
$ 667.1
$ 665.6
$ 660.0
$ 651.0
$ 639.4
$ 625.6
$ 610.1
$ 593.4
$ 575.7
$ 550.1
$ 530.2
$ 11,026.4
$ 946.2
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 14.8
$ 33.2
$ 53.3
$ 74.2
$ 85.1
$ 92.4
$ 96.9
$ 99.7
$ 101.1
$ 101.6
$ 101.4
$ 100.4
$ 99.0
$ 97.2
$ 95.1
$ 92.6
$ 89.9
$ 87.2
$ 83.4
$ 80.2
$ 1,678.8
$ 144.1
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 223.0
$ 498.7
$ 799.8
$ 1,113.0
$ 1,280.3
$ 1,390.0
$ 1,458.5
$ 1,503.0
$ 1,528.1
$ 1,539.4
$ 1,536.8
$ 1,523.9
$ 1,505.7
$ 1,479.1
$ 1,447.7
$ 1,412.0
$ 1,374.5
$ 1,335.5
$ 1,275.4
$ 1,230.5
$ 25,454.9
$ 2,184.3
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 201.6
$ 466.9
$ 759.3
$ 1,058.3
$ 1,216.5
$ 1,302.5
$ 1,338.5
$ 1,343.8
$ 1,328.6
$ 1,299.6
$ 1,261.6
$ 1,217.7
$ 1,170.2
$ 1,120.8
$ 1,070.8
$ 1,020.8
$ 971.6
$ 923.6
$ 865.6
$ 819.3
$ 20,757.6
$ 1,781.2
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 30.9
$ 71.5
$ 116.2
$ 162.0
$ 186.0
$ 199.2
$ 204.5
$ 205.2
$ 202.6
$ 198.0
$ 192.1
$ 185.2
$ 177.9
$ 170.5
$ 162.8
$ 155.0
$ 147.3
$ 139.8
$ 131.2
$ 124.0
$ 3,161.6
$ 271.3
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 463.5
$ 1,073.8
$ 1,744.3
$ 2,430.9
$ 2,796.6
$ 2,995.5
$ 3,078.1
$ 3,093.3
$ 3,060.8
$ 2,999.2
$ 2,912.6
$ 2,811.4
$ 2,706.4
$ 2,592.9
$ 2,478.0
$ 2,362.6
$ 2,250.7
$ 2,142.7
$ 2,007.1
$ 1,901.4
$ 47,901.7
$ 4,110.5
           Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005.
           Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate.
           Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
           Derived from Exhibits F.20a through F.20L
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
                                                                                                                                                                                                          December 2005

-------
                        Exhibit F.20z  Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 3% Discount Rate, by Small & Large Size Categories
                                                                                            (Ground Water Systems)
  TTHM - Preferred Alternative, ICR Matrix Method

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Ann.
Small Systems
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.4
$ 6.2
$ 10.9
$ 16.4
$ 22.5
$ 29.2
$ 34.0
$ 37.9
$ 40.9
$ 43.4
$ 45.2
$ 46.6
$ 47.5
$ 48.1
$ 48.5
$ 48.6
$ 48.6
$ 48.5
$ 47.6
$ 47.2
$ 720.3
$ 41.4
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.4
$ 1.0
$ 1.7
$ 2.5
$ 3.4
$ 4.5
$ 5.2
$ 5.8
$ 6.2
$ 6.6
$ 6.9
$ 7.1
$ 7.2
$ 7.3
$ 7.4
$ 7.4
$ 7.4
$ 7.3
$ 7.2
$ 7.1
$ 109.6
$ 6.3
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 5.6
$ 14.3
$ 25.1
$ 37.7
$ 51.8
$ 67.2
$ 78.2
$ 87.1
$ 94.3
$ 100.2
$ 104.5
$ 107.5
$ 109.8
$ 111.3
$ 112.1
$ 112.5
$ 112.6
$ 112.5
$ 110.4
$ 109.5
$ 1,664.2
$ 95.6
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.7
$ 4.1
$ 7.0
$ 10.3
$ 13.9
$ 17.8
$ 20.3
$ 22.4
$ 24.2
$ 25.7
$ 27.1
$ 28.2
$ 29.2
$ 30.1
$ 30.8
$ 31.5
$ 32.0
$ 32.4
$ 32.3
$ 32.5
$ 453.8
$ 26.1
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.3
$ 0.6
$ 1.1
$ 1.6
$ 2.1
$ 2.7
$ 3.1
$ 3.4
$ 3.7
$ 3.9
$ 4.1
$ 4.3
$ 4.4
$ 4.6
$ 4.7
$ 4.8
$ 4.8
$ 4.9
$ 4.9
$ 4.9
$ 69.0
$ 4.0
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 4.0
$ 9.5
$ 16.2
$ 23.7
$ 32.0
$ 40.9
$ 46.6
$ 51.5
$ 55.7
$ 59.4
$ 62.5
$ 65.2
$ 67.6
$ 69.7
$ 71.4
$ 72.8
$ 74.1
$ 75.2
$ 75.0
$ 75.5
$ 1,048.5
$ 60.2
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 4.0
$ 9.9
$ 17.0
$ 24.9
$ 33.3
$ 41.9
$ 47.1
$ 50.7
$ 53.2
$ 54.8
$ 55.7
$ 56.3
$ 56.4
$ 56.3
$ 56.0
$ 55.6
$ 55.0
$ 54.4
$ 53.0
$ 52.1
$ 887.6
$ 51.0
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.6
$ 1.5
$ 2.6
$ 3.8
$ 5.1
$ 6.4
$ 7.2
$ 7.7
$ 8.1
$ 8.3
$ 8.5
$ 8.6
$ 8.6
$ 8.6
$ 8.5
$ 8.4
$ 8.3
$ 8.2
$ 8.0
$ 7.9
$ 135.1
$ 7.8
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 9.3
$ 22.8
$ 39.1
$ 57.2
$ 76.5
$ 96.4
$ 108.4
$ 116.8
$ 122.5
$ 126.4
$ 128.7
$ 129.9
$ 130.5
$ 130.3
$ 129.7
$ 128.6
$ 127.4
$ 126.1
$ 122.8
$ 120.8
$ 2,050.2
$ 117.7
Large Systems
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 4.3
$ 10.9
$ 19.1
$ 28.7
$ 37.2
$ 44.4
$ 50.1
$ 54.7
$ 58.3
$ 61.0
$ 63.0
$ 64.4
$ 65.4
$ 65.9
$ 66.2
$ 66.3
$ 66.2
$ 65.9
$ 64.6
$ 64.0
$ 1,020.5
$ 58.6
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.7
$ 1.7
$ 2.9
$ 4.4
$ 5.7
$ 6.8
$ 7.7
$ 8.4
$ 8.9
$ 9.3
$ 9.6
$ 9.8
$ 9.9
$ 10.0
$ 10.1
$ 10.1
$ 10.0
$ 10.0
$ 9.8
$ 9.7
$ 155.3
$ 8.9
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 9.8
$ 25.0
$ 43.9
$ 65.9
$ 85.5
$ 102.1
$ 115.2
$ 125.9
$ 134.3
$ 140.8
$ 145.5
$ 148.7
$ 151.1
$ 152.5
$ 153.3
$ 153.4
$ 153.3
$ 152.9
$ 149.9
$ 148.5
$ 2,357.5
$ 135.4
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 3.1
$ 7.2
$ 12.3
$ 18.0
$ 22.7
$ 26.6
$ 29.6
$ 32.1
$ 34.4
$ 36.3
$ 37.9
$ 39.4
$ 40.6
$ 41.7
$ 42.6
$ 43.4
$ 44.0
$ 44.5
$ 44.3
$ 44.5
$ 645.1
$ 37.0
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.5
$ 1.1
$ 1.9
$ 2.8
$ 3.5
$ 4.1
$ 4.5
$ 4.9
$ 5.2
$ 5.5
$ 5.8
$ 6.0
$ 6.2
$ 6.3
$ 6.5
$ 6.6
$ 6.7
$ 6.7
$ 6.7
$ 6.7
$ 98.1
$ 5.6
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 7.0
$ 16.7
$ 28.2
$ 41.4
$ 52.2
$ 61.1
$ 68.0
$ 74.0
$ 79.1
$ 83.7
$ 87.6
$ 90.9
$ 94.0
$ 96.4
$ 98.6
$ 100.3
$ 101.9
$ 103.2
$ 102.7
$ 103.3
$ 1,490.4
$ 85.6
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 7.0
$ 17.3
$ 29.7
$ 43.5
$ 54.5
$ 62.6
$ 68.0
$ 71.7
$ 74.2
$ 75.7
$ 76.6
$ 77.0
$ 76.9
$ 76.6
$ 76.0
$ 75.3
$ 74.4
$ 73.5
$ 71.5
$ 70.3
$ 1,252.5
$ 71.9
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.1
$ 2.7
$ 4.6
$ 6.7
$ 8.3
$ 9.6
$ 10.4
$ 11.0
$ 11.3
$ 11.5
$ 11.7
$ 11.7
$ 11.7
$ 11.6
$ 11.6
$ 11.4
$ 11.3
$ 11.1
$ 10.8
$ 10.6
$ 190.6
$ 10.9
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 16.2
$ 39.9
$ 68.3
$ 100.0
$ 125.3
$ 144.1
$ 156.5
$ 165.1
$ 170.9
$ 174.8
$ 176.9
$ 177.7
$ 177.9
$ 177.2
$ 175.9
$ 174.3
$ 172.4
$ 170.5
$ 165.8
$ 163.1
$ 2,892.4
$ 166.1
           Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005.
           Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate.
           Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
           Derived from Exhibits F.20k through F.20s.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
                                                                                                                                                                                                  December 2005

-------
                    Exhibit F.20aa Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 7% Discount Rate, by Small & Large Size Categories
                                                                                         (Ground Water Systems)
TTHM - Preferred Alternative, ICR Matrix Method
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Ann.
Small Systems
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.0
$ 4.9
$ 8.4
$ 12.1
$ 16.0
$ 19.9
$ 22.4
$ 24.0
$ 25.0
$ 25.5
$ 25.6
$ 25.3
$ 24.8
$ 24.2
$ 23.5
$ 22.7
$ 21.8
$ 21.0
$ 19.8
$ 18.9
$ 387.8
$ 33.3
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.3
$ 0.8
$ 1.3
$ 1.9
$ 2.4
$ 3.1
$ 3.4
$ 3.7
$ 3.8
$ 3.9
$ 3.9
$ 3.8
$ 3.8
$ 3.7
$ 3.6
$ 3.4
$ 3.3
$ 3.2
$ 3.0
$ 2.9
$ 59.0
$ 5.1
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 4.7
$ 11.4
$ 19.2
$ 27.8
$ 36.8
$ 45.9
$ 51.4
$ 55.2
$ 57.5
$ 58.7
$ 59.0
$ 58.4
$ 57.5
$ 56.0
$ 54.4
$ 52.5
$ 50.6
$ 48.6
$ 46.0
$ 43.9
$ 895.4
$ 76.8
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.4
$ 3.3
$ 5.4
$ 7.6
$ 9.9
$ 12.1
$ 13.3
$ 14.2
$ 14.7
$ 15.1
$ 15.3
$ 15.3
$ 15.3
$ 15.2
$ 15.0
$ 14.7
$ 14.4
$ 14.0
$ 13.5
$ 13.0
$ 242.7
$ 20.8
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.5
$ 0.8
$ 1.2
$ 1.5
$ 1.9
$ 2.0
$ 2.2
$ 2.2
$ 2.3
$ 2.3
$ 2.3
$ 2.3
$ 2.3
$ 2.3
$ 2.2
$ 2.2
$ 2.1
$ 2.0
$ 2.0
$ 36.9
$ 3.2
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 3.3
$ 7.6
$ 12.4
$ 17.5
$ 22.7
$ 27.9
$ 30.7
$ 32.6
$ 33.9
$ 34.8
$ 35.3
$ 35.4
$ 35.4
$ 35.1
$ 34.6
$ 34.0
$ 33.3
$ 32.5
$ 31.2
$ 30.2
$ 560.6
$ 48.1
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 3.3
$ 7.9
$ 13.0
$ 18.4
$ 23.6
$ 28.7
$ 31.0
$ 32.1
$ 32.4
$ 32.1
$ 31.5
$ 30.6
$ 29.5
$ 28.4
$ 27.2
$ 25.9
$ 24.7
$ 23.5
$ 22.0
$ 20.9
$ 486.7
$ 41.8
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.5
$ 1.2
$ 2.0
$ 2.8
$ 3.6
$ 4.4
$ 4.7
$ 4.9
$ 4.9
$ 4.9
$ 4.8
$ 4.7
$ 4.5
$ 4.3
$ 4.1
$ 3.9
$ 3.7
$ 3.6
$ 3.3
$ 3.2
$ 74.1
$ 6.4
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 7.7
$ 18.1
$ 29.9
$ 42.2
$ 54.3
$ 65.9
$ 71.3
$ 73.9
$ 74.6
$ 74.1
$ 72.7
$ 70.6
$ 68.3
$ 65.6
$ 62.9
$ 60.0
$ 57.3
$ 54.5
$ 51.1
$ 48.4
$ 1,123.5
$ 96.4
Large Systems
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 3.5
$ 8.6
$ 14.6
$ 21.2
$ 26.4
$ 30.3
$ 32.9
$ 34.6
$ 35.5
$ 35.8
$ 35.6
$ 35.0
$ 34.2
$ 33.2
$ 32.1
$ 30.9
$ 29.7
$ 28.5
$ 26.9
$ 25.6
$ 555.4
$ 47.7
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.5
$ 1.3
$ 2.2
$ 3.2
$ 4.0
$ 4.6
$ 5.0
$ 5.3
$ 5.4
$ 5.5
$ 5.4
$ 5.3
$ 5.2
$ 5.1
$ 4.9
$ 4.7
$ 4.5
$ 4.3
$ 4.1
$ 3.9
$ 84.6
$ 7.3
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 8.1
$ 19.9
$ 33.6
$ 48.6
$ 60.7
$ 69.8
$ 75.8
$ 79.7
$ 81.9
$ 82.6
$ 82.1
$ 80.8
$ 79.1
$ 76.8
$ 74.3
$ 71.6
$ 68.9
$ 66.1
$ 62.4
$ 59.5
$ 1,282.2
$ 110.0
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.5
$ 5.8
$ 9.4
$ 13.3
$ 16.1
$ 18.1
$ 19.4
$ 20.3
$ 20.9
$ 21.3
$ 21.4
$ 21.4
$ 21.3
$ 21.0
$ 20.7
$ 20.2
$ 19.8
$ 19.2
$ 18.4
$ 17.8
$ 348.5
$ 29.9
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.4
$ 0.9
$ 1.4
$ 2.0
$ 2.5
$ 2.8
$ 3.0
$ 3.1
$ 3.2
$ 3.2
$ 3.3
$ 3.3
$ 3.2
$ 3.2
$ 3.1
$ 3.1
$ 3.0
$ 2.9
$ 2.8
$ 2.7
$ 53.1
$ 4.6
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 5.8
$ 13.3
$ 21.6
$ 30.5
$ 37.1
$ 41.7
$ 44.7
$ 46.8
$ 48.2
$ 49.1
$ 49.5
$ 49.4
$ 49.2
$ 48.6
$ 47.8
$ 46.8
$ 45.8
$ 44.6
$ 42.8
$ 41.4
$ 804.7
$ 69.1
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 5.8
$ 13.8
$ 22.8
$ 32.1
$ 38.7
$ 42.8
$ 44.7
$ 45.4
$ 45.2
$ 44.4
$ 43.3
$ 41.8
$ 40.2
$ 38.6
$ 36.9
$ 35.1
$ 33.4
$ 31.8
$ 29.8
$ 28.2
$ 694.8
$ 59.6
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.9
$ 2.1
$ 3.5
$ 4.9
$ 5.9
$ 6.5
$ 6.8
$ 6.9
$ 6.9
$ 6.8
$ 6.6
$ 6.4
$ 6.1
$ 5.9
$ 5.6
$ 5.3
$ 5.1
$ 4.8
$ 4.5
$ 4.3
$ 105.8
$ 9.1
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 13.4
$ 31.7
$ 52.3
$ 73.7
$ 88.9
$ 98.4
$ 102.9
$ 104.5
$ 104.1
$ 102.5
$ 99.9
$ 96.6
$ 93.1
$ 89.2
$ 85.3
$ 81.3
$ 77.5
$ 73.7
$ 69.0
$ 65.4
$ 1,603.5
$ 137.6
          Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005.
          Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate.
          Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
          Derived from Exhibits F.20k through F.20s.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
                                                                                                                                                                                           December 2005

-------
                                                                                       Exhibit F.20ab Mean Present Value of Benefits Yeariy Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 3% Discount Rate, by System Size
                                                                                                                                                       (All Systems)
      TTHM - Preferred Alternative, ICR Matrix Method
                                          Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model
                                                                                                                                                          Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model
                                                              1,000-49,999 50,000-99,999
                                                                                                                                                          3,300-9,999 10,000-49,999 50,000-99,999   999,999
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 1,000-3,299  9,999
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     49,999     99,999     999,999
       2005
       2006
       2007
       2008
       2009
       2010
       2011
       2015
       2016
       2017
       2022
       2023
       2024
       2025
       2026
       2027
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBF/?
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            December2005

-------
                                                                               Exhibit F.20ac Mean Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphom
                                                                                                                                            (All Systems)
                                                                                                                                                            s Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 7% Discount Rate, by System Size
    TTHM - Preferred Alternative, ICR Matrix Method
Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Ann.
<100
$ -
S -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ 00
S 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 02
$ 03
S 03
$ 04
$ 04
S 04
$ 04
$ 04
$ 04
$ 04
$ 04
$ 04
S 04
$ 03
$ 03

100-499
$
$
$
$
$
$ 03
$ 06
$ 1 1
$ 1 6
$ 2 1
$ 26
$ 29
$ 3 1
$ 33
$ 33
$ 33
$ 32
$ 3 1
$ 30
$ 29
$ 27
$ 26
$ 25

500-999
S
$
$
$
s
$ 03
$ 08
$ 1 3
S 1 9
$ 26
$ 32
$ 36
S 38
$ 4 1
$ 4 1
S 4 1
$ 39
$ 38
S 36
$ 35
$ 34
$ 32
$ 30

1,000-3,299
S
$
$
$
s
$ 1 2
$ 30
$ 5 1
S 74
$ 98
$ 122
$ 137
S 147
$ 156
$ 157
S 155
$ 149
$ 144
S 139
$ 134
$ 129
$ 122
$ 116

3,300-9,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 30
$ 74
$ 125
$ 239
$ 298
$ 334
S 358
$ 380
S 378
$ 362
$ 35 1
S 339
$ 326
$ 31 3
$ 296
$ 282

10,000-49,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 138
$ 335
$ 567
$ 820
$ 1087
$ 1307
$ 1451
$ 1549
$ 1640
$ 1622
$ 1547
$ 1499
$ 1446
$ 1390
$ 1334
$ 1260
$ 1201

50,000-99,999
S
$
$
$
$
$ 115
$ 278
$ 680
$ 856
$ 974
$ 1058
S 111 3
$ 1144
$ 1153
$ 1145
S 1126
$ 1067
$ 103 1
S 993
$ 953
$ 91 3
$ 862
$ 	 82^

100,000-
999599
S
$
$
$
s
$ 498
$ 1208
S 2956
$ 3523
$ 3942
$ 4241
S 4433
$ 4535
S 4400
$ 4154
$ 401 0
S 3858
$ 3702
$ 3544
$ 3343
$ 3183

>1, 000,000
$
$
$
$
s
$ 414
$ 1003
$ 2455
$ 2926
$ 3275
$ 3523
$ 3683
$ 3768
$ 3729
$ 3657
$ 3452
$ 3332
$ 3206
$ 3076
$ 2945
$ 2778
$ 2645

Total
$
$
$
$
$
$ 121 3
S 2943
$ 7203
$ 8778
S 9980
$ 1,0813
$ 1,1357
S 1,1709
$ 1,1618
S 1,0805
$ 1 ,043 8
$ 1,0050
$ 964 8
S 9242
$ 8722
$ 8306
S 18,200.0

Smoking
<100
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ 00
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 02
$ 02
$ 02
$ 02
$ 03
$ 03
$ 03
$ 03
$ 03
$ 02
$ 02
$ 02
$ 02
$ 02

100-499
$
$
$
$
$
$ 02
$ 04
S 1 0
$ 1 3
$ 1 6
$ 1 7
S 1 9
$ 20
$ 20
S 20
$ 20
$ 20
S 1 9
$ 1 9
$ 1 8
$ 1 7

500-999
$
$
$
$
S
$ 02
$ 05
$ 1 2
$ 1 6
$ 1 9
$ 2 1
$ 23
$ 24
$ 24
$ 25
$ 24
$ 24
$ 24
$ 23
$ 22
$ 22
$ 2 1

1,000-3,299
$
S
$
$
$
$ 09
S 20
$ 47
$ 6 1
S 74
$ 82
$ 87
S 93
$ 94
$ 94
$ 93
$ 92
$ 90
S 86
$ 83
$ 80

/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model
3,300-9,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 22
$ 49
$ 114
$ 148
$ 181
$ 199
$ 21 2
$ 220
$ 225
$ 229
$ 227
$ 21 9
$ 21 5
$ 209
$ 201
$ 195

10,000-49,999
$
$
$
$
S
$ 117
$ 262
$ 586
$ 752
$ 873
$ 936
$ 977
$ 101 6
$ 101 6
$ 1006
$ 99 1
$ 95 1
$ 927
$ 90 1
$ 862
$ 832

50,000-99,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 98
$ 2,B
$ 489
$ 589
$ 641
$ 675
$ 697
$ 71 5
$ 709
« B= =
$ 657
$ 640
$ 621
$ 593
$ 572

100,000-
999,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 426
S 952
$ 2129
$ 2395
S 257 1
$ 2688
$ 276 1
S 281 3
$ 2779
S 2689
$ 2564
S 241 8
$ 231 0
$ 2226

>1, 000,000
s
$
$
$
$ 355
S 794
$ 1774
$ 1995
S 214 1
$ 2237
$ 2297
S 2340
$ 231 1
$ 2236
$ 213 1
S 201 0
$ 1920
$ 1850

Total
$
S
$
$
$ 1030
S 2306
$ 5162
$ 5969
S 651 8
$ 6858
$ 7075
S 7248
$ 7185
S 6970
$ 6658
S 6288
$ 601 0
$ 5795

Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model
<100
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 03
$ 04
$ 05
$ 05
$ 05
$ 05
$ 05
$ 05
$ 04
$ 04
$ 04
$ 04

100-499
S
$
$
s
$ 04
$ 1 0
$ 1 7
S 24
$ 3 1
$ 37
$ 40
S 42
$ 42
S 40
$ 37
S 34
$ 3 1
$ 29
$ 27

500-999
$
S
$
$
$ 05
S 1 3
$ 2 1
$ 29
$ 38
S 46
$ 50
$ 5 1
S 5 1
$ 49
S 45
$ 42
S 38
$ 35
$ 33

1,000-3,299
S
$
$
$
$ 20
$ 80
S 113
$ 145
$ 176
$ 190
S 197
$ 197
« ,==
$ 174
S 159
$ 144
$ 135
$ 	 HB_

3,300-9,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 50
$ 195
$ 274
$ 353
$ 428
$ 463
$ 480
$ 480
$ 457
$ 424
$ 369
$ 35 1
$ 329
$ 31 2

10,000-
49,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 245
$ 925
$ 129 1
$ 1649
$ 1898
$ 2009
$ 2052
$ 2023
$ 1975
$ 191 4
$ 1845
$ 1772
$ 1696
$ 161 9
$ 1542
$ 1376
$ 1303

50,000-99,999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 204
$ 473
$ 769
$ 1072
$ 1289
$ 1388
$ 1434
$ 1444
$ 1402
$ 1362
$ 131 6
$ 1265
$ 121 2
$ 1105
$ 1052
$ 1000
$ 937
_$ 	 887_

100,000-
999,999
S
$
$
$
$
$ 887
S 2056
$ 3345
$ 4664
$ 525 1
S 5553
$ 5675
$ 5679
S 547 1
$ 5305
$ 511 6
$ 491 3
$ 4703
$ 449 1
$ 428 1
$ 4073
$ 3627
$ 3433

> 1,000,000
$
$
$
$
$
$ 738
S 171 0
$ 2782
$ 4364
S 461 3
$ 471 5
$ 471 7
S 4544
$ 4406
$ 4249
$ 3907
$ 373 1
$ 3555
$ 3383
S 321 5
$ 301 3
$ 285 1
$ 627.3
Total
S
$
$
$
s
$ 2155
$ 4997
$ 8136
S 1,1347
$ 1,3122
$ 1,4145
$ 1 ,458 1
S 1 ,466 7
$ 1,4216
S 1,3333
$ 1,2817
$ 1,2279
$ 1,1732
S 1,1186
$ 1 ,064 8
$ 1,0122
$ 9486

$ 1,941.7
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      December 2005

-------
              Section F.21
Model Outputs - Preferred Alternative, SWAT
                Method
           TTHM as Indicator
      Lymphoma for Non-Fatal Cases

-------

-------
     Exhibit F.21a Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                             (Surface Water Systems Serving <100 People)

     TTHM - Preferred Alternative, SWAT Method

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 2.2
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.3
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 5.0
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 1.4
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.2
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 3.2
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 2.6
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.4
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 6.0
     Notes:  All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
            Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
     Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
     Exhibit F.21b Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                           (Surface Water Systems Serving 100-499 People)

    TTHM - Preferred Alternative, SWAT Method

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.5
$ 0.7
$ 0.8
$ 0.9
$ 1.0
$ 1.1
$ 1.2
$ 1.3
$ 1.3
$ 1.4
$ 1.4
$ 1.5
$ 1.5
$ 1.6
$ 1.6
$ 1.6
$ 20.0
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 3.0
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.3
$ 0.5
$ 0.8
$ 1.1
$ 1.5
$ 1.8
$ 2.1
$ 2.3
$ 2.5
$ 2.7
$ 2.9
$ 3.1
$ 3.2
$ 3.3
$ 3.4
$ 3.5
$ 3.6
$ 3.7
$ 3.7
$ 46.2
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.6
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.9
$ 0.9
$ 1.0
$ 1.0
$ 1.0
$ 1.1
$ 1.1
$ 12.8
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 2.0
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.7
$ 1.0
$ 1.1
$ 1.3
$ 1.4
$ 1.5
$ 1.7
$ 1.8
$ 1.9
$ 2.0
$ 2.1
$ 2.2
$ 2.3
$ 2.4
$ 2.5
$ 2.6
$ 29.7
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.7
$ 0.9
$ 1.1
$ 1.2
$ 1.3
$ 1.4
$ 1.4
$ 1.5
$ 1.6
$ 1.6
$ 1.6
$ 1.7
$ 1.7
$ 1.7
$ 1.7
$ 1.8
$ 24.2
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 3.7
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.5
$ 0.8
$ 1.2
$ 1.7
$ 2.2
$ 2.5
$ 2.8
$ 3.0
$ 3.2
$ 3.3
$ 3.5
$ 3.6
$ 3.7
$ 3.8
$ 3.9
$ 4.0
$ 4.0
$ 4.0
$ 4.1
$ 56.0
    Notes:   All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
           Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
    Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
     Exhibit F.21c Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                           (Surface Water Systems Serving 500-999 People)

    TTHM - Preferred Alternative, SWAT Method

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.4
$ 0.6
$ 0.9
$ 1.2
$ 1.4
$ 1.6
$ 1.8
$ 1.9
$ 2.1
$ 2.2
$ 2.3
$ 2.4
$ 2.5
$ 2.6
$ 2.7
$ 2.8
$ 2.8
$ 2.8
$ 35.2
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 5.4
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.5
$ 0.9
$ 1.4
$ 2.0
$ 2.7
$ 3.2
$ 3.7
$ 4.1
$ 4.5
$ 4.8
$ 5.1
$ 5.4
$ 5.6
$ 5.8
$ 6.0
$ 6.2
$ 6.4
$ 6.5
$ 6.6
$ 81.5
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.6
$ 0.7
$ 0.9
$ 1.0
$ 1.1
$ 1.2
$ 1.3
$ 1.4
$ 1.4
$ 1.5
$ 1.6
$ 1.7
$ 1.8
$ 1.8
$ 1.9
$ 2.0
$ 22.6
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 3.4
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.4
$ 0.6
$ 0.9
$ 1.3
$ 1.7
$ 2.0
$ 2.2
$ 2.5
$ 2.7
$ 2.9
$ 3.1
$ 3.3
$ 3.5
$ 3.7
$ 3.9
$ 4.1
$ 4.3
$ 4.4
$ 4.5
$ 52.3
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.4
$ 0.6
$ 0.9
$ 1.3
$ 1.7
$ 1.9
$ 2.1
$ 2.3
$ 2.4
$ 2.6
$0 7
Z. /
$ 2.7
$ 2.8
$ 2.9
$ 3.0
$ 3.0
$ 3.1
$ 3.1
$ 3.1
$ 42.7
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 6.5
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.3
$ 0.8
$ 1.4
$ 2.2
$ 3.0
$ 3.8
$ 4.4
$ 4.9
$ 5.3
$ 5.6
$ 5.9
$ 6.1
$ 6.3
$ 6.5
$ 6.7
$ 6.8
$ 7.0
$ 7.1
$ 7.1
$ 7.2
$ 98.7
    Notes:   All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
           Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
    Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
     Exhibit F.21d Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                          (Surface Water Systems Serving 1,000-3,299 People)

    TTHM - Preferred Alternative, SWAT Method

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.5
$ 1.4
$ 2.5
$ 3.9
$ 5.6
$ 7.5
$ 8.9
$ 10.3
$ 11.5
$ 12.5
$ 13.5
$ 14.3
$ 15.0
$ 15.6
$ 16.2
$ 16.8
$ 17.3
$ 17.7
$ 17.9
$ 18.3
$ 227.3
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.4
$ 0.6
$ 0.9
$ 1.1
$ 1.4
$ 1.6
$ 1.7
$ 1.9
$ 2.0
$ 2.2
$ 2.3
$ 2.4
$ 2.5
$ 2.5
$ 2.6
$ 2.7
$ 2.7
$ 2.8
$ 34.6
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.2
$ 3.2
$ 5.8
$ 9.0
$ 12.8
$ 17.1
$ 20.6
$ 23.6
$ 26.4
$ 28.9
$ 31.1
$ 32.9
$ 34.7
$ 36.2
$ 37.5
$ 38.8
$ 40.0
$ 41.1
$ 41.6
$ 42.5
$ 525.3
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.4
$ 1.0
$ 1.7
$ 2.6
$ 3.6
$ 4.7
$ 5.5
$ 6.2
$ 6.9
$ 7.6
$ 8.2
$ 8.8
$ 9.3
$ 9.9
$ 10.4
$ 10.9
$ 11.4
$ 11.9
$ 12.2
$ 12.6
$ 145.9
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.6
$ 0.7
$ 0.8
$ 1.0
$ 1.1
$ 1.2
$ 1.2
$ 1.3
$ 1.4
$ 1.5
$ 1.6
$ 1.7
$ 1.7
$ 1.8
$ 1.8
$ 1.9
$ 22.2
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.9
$ 2.3
$ 4.0
$ 6.0
$ 8.3
$ 10.9
$ 12.7
$ 14.4
$ 15.9
$ 17.4
$ 18.9
$ 20.2
$ 21.6
$ 22.8
$ 24.1
$ 25.2
$ 26.4
$ 27.6
$ 28.3
$ 29.3
$ 337.2
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.9
$ 2.3
$ 4.0
$ 6.1
$ 8.3
$ 10.8
$ 12.4
$ 13.8
$ 14.8
$ 15.7
$ 16.5
$ 17.1
$ 17.7
$ 18.2
$ 18.6
$ 19.0
$ 19.4
$ 19.8
$ 19.8
$ 20.1
$ 275.3
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.4
$ 0.6
$ 0.9
$ 1.3
$ 1.6
$ 1.9
$ 2.1
$ 2.3
$ 2.4
$ 2.5
$ 2.6
$ 2.7
$ 2.8
$ 2.8
$ 2.9
$ 2.9
$ 3.0
$ 3.0
$ 3.0
$ 41.9
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.1
$ 5.3
$ 9.3
$ 13.9
$ 19.1
$ 24.8
$ 28.6
$ 31.7
$ 34.2
$ 36.3
$ 38.0
$ 39.5
$ 40.9
$ 42.1
$ 43.1
$ 44.1
$ 45.0
$ 45.8
$ 46.0
$ 46.6
$ 636.2
    Notes:   All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
           Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
    Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
      Exhibit F.21e Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                          (Surface Water Systems Serving 3,300-9,999 People)

    TTHM - Preferred Alternative, SWAT Method

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.5
$ 4.0
$ 7.3
$ 11.3
$ 16.0
$ 21.3
$ 25.6
$ 29.4
$ 32.8
$ 35.8
$ 38.5
$ 40.8
$ 42.9
$ 44.7
$ 46.4
$ 48.0
$ 49.4
$ 50.7
$ 51.3
$ 52.4
$ 650.1
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.6
$ 1.1
$ 1.7
$ 2.4
$ 3.3
$ 3.9
$ 4.5
$ 5.0
$ 5.5
$ 5.9
$ 6.2
$ 6.5
$ 6.8
$ 7.1
$ 7.3
$ 7.5
$ 7.7
$ 7.8
$ 7.9
$ 98.8
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 3.5
$ 9.2
$ 16.7
$ 25.9
$ 36.7
$ 49.0
$ 58.9
$ 67.6
$ 75.5
$ 82.7
$ 88.9
$ 94.2
$ 99.2
$ 103.5
$ 107.4
$ 111.0
$ 114.4
$ 117.7
$ 119.0
$ 121.6
$ 1,502.6
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.2
$ 2.9
$ 5.0
$ 7.5
$ 10.3
$ 13.5
$ 15.8
$ 17.9
$ 19.8
$ 21.6
$ 23.4
$ 25.1
$ 26.7
$ 28.2
$ 29.7
$ 31.2
$ 32.6
$ 34.0
$ 34.9
$ 36.1
$ 417.3
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.4
$ 0.8
$ 1.1
$ 1.6
$ 2.1
$ 2.4
$ 2.7
$ 3.0
$ 3.3
$ 3.6
$ 3.8
$ 4.1
$ 4.3
$ 4.5
$ 4.7
$ 4.9
$ 5.2
$ 5.3
$ 5.5
$ 63.4
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.7
$ 6.6
$ 11.4
$ 17.1
$ 23.7
$ 31.1
$ 36.3
$ 41.1
$ 45.6
$ 49.9
$ 54.0
$ 57.8
$ 61.7
$ 65.3
$ 68.8
$ 72.2
$ 75.6
$ 78.9
$ 81.0
$ 83.9
$ 964.6
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.6
$ 6.6
$ 11.5
$ 17.3
$ 23.8
$ 30.8
$ 35.6
$ 39.3
$ 42.4
$ 45.0
$ 47.1
$ 49.0
$ 50.6
$ 52.0
$ 53.3
$ 54.5
$ 55.5
$ 56.5
$ 56.7
$ 57.5
$ 787.6
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.4
$ 1.0
$ 1.8
$ 2.7
$ 3.6
$ 4.7
$ 5.4
$ 6.0
$ 6.5
$ 6.8
$ 7.2
$ 7.4
$ 7.7
$ 7.9
$ 8.1
$ 8.3
$ 8.4
$ 8.6
$ 8.6
$ 8.7
$ 119.8
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 6.0
$ 15.1
$ 26.5
$ 39.8
$ 54.7
$ 70.9
$ 81.9
$ 90.6
$ 97.7
$ 103.7
$ 108.8
$ 113.0
$ 117.0
$ 120.3
$ 123.3
$ 126.0
$ 128.6
$ 131.1
$ 131.5
$ 133.4
$ 1,820.0
    Notes:   All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
           Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
    Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
      Exhibit F.21f Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                         (Surface Water Systems Serving 10,000-49,999 People)

    TTHM - Preferred Alternative, SWAT Method

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 10.0
$ 25.8
$ 46.8
$ 72.4
$ 102.8
$ 132.5
$ 157.6
$ 180.3
$ 200.7
$ 218.9
$ 234.7
$ 248.3
$ 260.4
$ 271 .3
$ 281 .2
$ 290.2
$ 298.6
$ 306.5
$ 309.8
$ 315.9
$ 3,964.7
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.5
$ 4.0
$ 7.2
$ 11.1
$ 15.7
$ 20.3
$ 24.1
$ 27.5
$ 30.6
$ 33.3
$ 35.7
$ 37.8
$ 39.6
$ 41.3
$ 42.7
$ 44.1
$ 45.3
$ 46.4
$ 46.9
$ 47.8
$ 602.8
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 22.9
$ 59.5
$ 107.4
$ 166.3
$ 236.3
$ 304.7
$ 362.5
$ 415.0
$ 462.5
$ 505.2
$ 541.8
$ 573.3
$ 602.3
$ 627.6
$ 650.7
$ 671.7
$ 691.7
$ 711.0
$ 718.3
$ 733.2
$ 9,163.8
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 9.1
$ 21.6
$ 36.9
$ 54.7
$ 74.8
$ 92.4
$ 105.5
$ 117.3
$ 128.2
$ 138.5
$ 148.3
$ 157.7
$ 166.7
$ 175.4
$ 183.8
$ 191.9
$ 199.9
$ 207.6
$ 212.3
$ 219.1
$2,641.5
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.4
$ 3.3
$ 5.6
$ 8.4
$ 11.4
$ 14.1
$ 16.1
$ 17.9
$ 19.5
$ 21.1
$ 22.6
$ 24.0
$ 25.3
$ 26.7
$ 27.9
$ 29.1
$ 30.3
$ 31.4
$ 32.2
$ 33.2
$ 401.7
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 20.8
$ 49.6
$ 84.7
$ 125.6
$ 172.0
$ 212.5
$ 242.6
$ 269.9
$ 295.4
$ 319.6
$ 342.4
$ 364.1
$ 385.5
$ 405.7
$ 425.3
$ 444.2
$ 463.0
$ 481.6
$ 492.3
$ 508.4
$ 6,105.3
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 18.3
$ 45.0
$ 78.0
$ 115.9
$ 158.0
$ 193.9
$ 218.7
$ 238.5
$ 254.8
$ 268.5
$ 280.3
$ 290.6
$ 299.7
$ 307.9
$ 315.3
$ 322.2
$ 328.5
$ 334.5
$ 335.8
$ 340.3
$ 4,744.7
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.8
$ 6.9
$ 11.9
$ 17.7
$ 24.1
$ 29.6
$ 33.4
$ 36.4
$ 38.8
$ 40.9
$ 42.7
$ 44.2
$ 45.6
$ 46.8
$ 47.9
$ 48.9
$ 49.8
$ 50.7
$ 50.9
$ 51.5
$ 721.7
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 42.1
$ 103.6
$ 179.2
$ 266.3
$ 363.1
$ 445.9
$ 502.9
$ 548.9
$ 586.9
$ 619.6
$ 647.1
$ 670.9
$ 693.1
$ 712.2
$ 729.7
$ 745.6
$ 761.0
$ 776.1
$ 778.6
$ 789.9
$ 10,963.0
    Notes:   All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
           Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
    Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
     Exhibit F.21g Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                         (Surface Water Systems Serving 50,000-99,999 People)

    TTHM - Preferred Alternative, SWAT Method

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 8.7
$ 22.5
$ 40.7
$ 63.1
$ 85.0
$ 103.7
$ 120.8
$ 136.2
$ 150.0
$ 161.8
$ 172.0
$ 181.0
$ 189.0
$ 196.3
$ 203.0
$ 209.1
$ 214.9
$ 220.3
$ 222.4
$ 226.6
$ 2,927.3
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.3
$ 3.4
$ 6.2
$ 9.7
$ 13.0
$ 15.9
$ 18.4
$ 20.8
$ 22.9
$ 24.6
$ 26.2
$ 27.5
$ 28.7
$ 29.9
$ 30.9
$ 31.7
$ 32.6
$ 33.3
$ 33.7
$ 34.3
$ 445.2
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 20.0
$ 51.8
$ 93.6
$ 144.9
$ 195.5
$ 238.6
$ 277.7
$ 313.6
$ 345.5
$ 373.4
$ 397.1
$ 417.9
$ 437.2
$ 454.2
$ 469.8
$ 484.0
$ 497.7
$ 511.0
$ 515.7
$ 526.0
$ 6,765.2
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 7.9
$ 18.8
$ 32.1
$ 47.7
$ 61.1
$ 70.7
$ 79.4
$ 87.4
$ 94.8
$ 101.9
$ 108.7
$ 115.2
$ 121.5
$ 127.5
$ 133.4
$ 139.1
$ 144.6
$ 150.0
$ 153.3
$ 158.0
$1,953.3
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.2
$ 2.9
$ 4.9
$ 7.3
$ 9.3
$ 10.8
$ 12.1
$ 13.3
$ 14.5
$ 15.5
$ 16.6
$ 17.5
$ 18.5
$ 19.4
$ 20.3
$ 21.1
$ 21.9
$ 22.7
$ 23.2
$ 23.9
$ 297.0
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 18.2
$ 43.2
$ 73.8
$ 109.5
$ 140.5
$ 162.7
$ 182.6
$ 201.1
$ 218.5
$ 235.2
$ 251.0
$ 266.0
$ 280.9
$ 295.0
$ 308.7
$ 321.9
$ 335.0
$ 348.1
$ 355.5
$ 366.8
$ 4,514.2
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 16.0
$ 39.2
$ 68.0
$ 101.0
$ 129.4
$ 148.5
$ 163.7
$ 176.1
$ 186.5
$ 195.3
$ 203.0
$ 209.8
$ 215.9
$ 221 .3
$ 226.4
$ 231 .0
$ 235.4
$ 239.5
$ 240.3
$ 243.4
$ 3,489.5
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.4
$ 6.0
$ 10.4
$ 15.5
$ 19.8
$ 22.7
$ 25.0
$ 26.9
$ 28.4
$ 29.8
$ 30.9
$ 31.9
$ 32.8
$ 33.7
$ 34.4
$ 35.1
$ 35.7
$ 36.3
$ 36.4
$ 36.8
$ 530.9
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 36.7
$ 90.3
$ 156.1
$ 232.0
$ 297.4
$ 341.6
$ 376.4
$ 405.3
$ 429.6
$ 450.7
$ 468.7
$ 484.4
$ 499.2
$ 512.0
$ 523.9
$ 534.7
$ 545.2
$ 555.6
$ 557.1
$ 564.9
$ 8,061.9
    Notes:   All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
           Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
    Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
     Exhibit F.21h Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                       (Surface Water Systems Serving 100,000-999,999 People)

  TTHM - Preferred Alternative, SWAT Method

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 38.5
$ 99.6
$ 180.3
$ 279.1
$ 356.2
$ 427.3
$ 492.8
$ 552.2
$ 603.9
$ 647.7
$ 685.9
$ 719.9
$ 750.3
$ 778.1
$ 803.5
$ 827.1
$ 849.1
$ 869.8
$ 877.8
$ 894.1
$ 11,733.1
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 5.9
$ 15.3
$ 27.6
$ 42.7
$ 54.5
$ 65.3
$ 75.3
$ 84.3
$ 92.1
$ 98.7
$ 104.4
$ 109.5
$ 114.1
$ 118.3
$ 122.1
$ 125.5
$ 128.7
$ 131.7
$ 133.0
$ 135.3
$ 1,784.4
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 88.5
$ 229.2
$ 414.1
$ 641.1
$ 818.9
$ 982.7
$ 1,133.3
$ 1,271.0
$ 1,391.2
$ 1,494.7
$ 1,583.6
$ 1,662.1
$ 1,735.4
$ 1,799.9
$ 1,859.5
$ 1,914.1
$ 1,966.7
$ 2,017.8
$ 2,035.4
$ 2,075.1
$ 27,114.4
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 35.0
$ 83.1
$ 142.1
$ 210.8
$ 252.1
$ 288.1
$ 320.9
$ 351.4
$ 380.2
$ 407.6
$ 433.8
$ 459.0
$ 483.3
$ 506.8
$ 529.6
$ 551.8
$ 573.4
$ 594.5
$ 607.1
$ 625.4
$ 7,836.3
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 5.4
$ 12.7
$ 21.8
$ 32.3
$ 38.5
$ 44.1
$ 49.0
$ 53.7
$ 58.0
$ 62.1
$ 66.1
$ 69.8
$ 73.5
$ 77.1
$ 80.5
$ 83.8
$ 86.9
$ 90.0
$ 92.0
$ 94.6
$ 1,191.8
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 80.4
$ 191.2
$ 326.5
$ 484.3
$ 579.5
$ 662.6
$ 738.0
$ 809.0
$ 876.0
$ 940.7
$ 1 ,001 .6
$ 1 ,059.9
$ 1,117.9
$ 1,172.5
$ 1 ,225.7
$ 1,277.1
$ 1 ,328.2
$ 1,379.1
$ 1 ,407.6
$ 1 ,451 .5
$ 18,109.2
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 70.6
$ 173.6
$ 300.7
$ 446.9
$ 535.5
$ 603.8
$ 658.9
$ 704.4
$ 742.9
$ 775.9
$ 804.8
$ 830.3
$ 853.3
$ 874.1
$ 893.3
$ 911.2
$ 928.0
$ 943.8
$ 946.6
$ 958.7
$ 13,957.1
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 10.8
$ 26.6
$ 46.0
$ 68.4
$ 81.9
$ 92.3
$ 100.6
$ 107.6
$ 113.3
$ 118.2
$ 122.5
$ 126.3
$ 129.7
$ 132.9
$ 135.8
$ 138.3
$ 140.7
$ 142.9
$ 143.4
$ 145.1
$ 2,123.4
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 162.2
$ 399.3
$ 690.7
$ 1,026.5
$ 1,231.0
$ 1,388.6
$ 1,515.2
$ 1,621.4
$ 1,711.4
$ 1,790.5
$ 1,858.0
$ 1,917.1
$ 1,973.4
$ 2,022.2
$ 2,067.4
$ 2,108.8
$ 2,149.5
$ 2,189.7
$ 2,194.8
$ 2,225.0
$ 32,242.8
  Notes:  All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
         Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
  Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
      Exhibit F.21 i  Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                          (Surface Water Systems Serving >1,000,000 People)

  TTHM - Preferred Alternative, SWAT Method

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 32.7
$ 84.8
$ 153.4
$ 237.5
$ 303.2
$ 363.7
$ 419.4
$ 469.9
$ 513.9
$ 551 .2
$ 583.8
$ 612.6
$ 638.6
$ 662.2
$ 683.8
$ 703.9
$ 722.6
$ 740.2
$ 747.1
$ 760.9
$ 9,985.5
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 5.0
$ 13.0
$ 23.5
$ 36.4
$ 46.3
$ 55.6
$ 64.1
$ 71.8
$ 78.4
$ 84.0
$ 88.9
$ 93.2
$ 97.1
$ 100.7
$ 104.0
$ 106.8
$ 109.5
$ 112.1
$ 113.2
$ 115.2
$ 1,518.6
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 75.3
$ 195.0
$ 352.4
$ 545.6
$ 696.9
$ 836.4
$ 964.5
$ 1,081.7
$ 1,184.0
$ 1,272.1
$ 1,347.8
$ 1,414.5
$ 1,476.9
$ 1,531.9
$ 1,582.5
$ 1,629.0
$ 1,673.8
$ 1,717.3
$ 1,732.2
$ 1,766.0
$ 23,075.9
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 29.8
$ 70.7
$ 121.0
$ 179.4
$ 214.6
$ 245.2
$ 273.1
$ 299.1
$ 323.6
$ 346.9
$ 369.2
$ 390.7
$ 411.3
$ 431.4
$ 450.8
$ 469.6
$ 488.0
$ 505.9
$ 516.6
$ 532.3
$ 6,669.2
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 4.6
$ 10.8
$ 18.5
$ 27.5
$ 32.8
$ 37.5
$ 41.7
$ 45.7
$ 49.3
$ 52.8
$ 56.2
$ 59.4
$ 62.6
$ 65.6
$ 68.5
$ 71.3
$ 74.0
$ 76.6
$ 78.3
$ 80.6
$ 1,014.3
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 68.4
$ 162.7
$ 277.9
$ 412.1
$ 493.2
$ 563.9
$ 628.1
$ 688.5
$ 745.5
$ 800.6
$ 852.4
$ 902.0
$ 951 .4
$ 997.9
$ 1 ,043.2
$ 1 ,086.9
$ 1,130.4
$ 1,173.7
$ 1,197.9
$ 1 ,235.3
$ 15,412.0
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 60.1
$ 147.7
$ 255.9
$ 380.3
$ 455.7
$ 513.9
$ 560.7
$ 599.5
$ 632.2
$ 660.3
$ 684.9
$ 706.6
$ 726.2
$ 743.9
$ 760.3
$ 775.5
$ 789.7
$ 803.3
$ 805.6
$ 815.9
$ 11,878.3
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 9.2
$ 22.6
$ 39.2
$ 58.2
$ 69.7
$ 78.6
$ 85.7
$ 91.5
$ 96.4
$ 100.6
$ 104.3
$ 107.5
$ 110.4
$ 113.1
$ 115.6
$ 117.7
$ 119.7
$ 121.6
$ 122.1
$ 123.5
$ 1,807.1
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 138.1
$ 339.8
$ 587.9
$ 873.6
$ 1,047.6
$ 1,181.8
$ 1,289.5
$ 1,379.9
$ 1,456.5
$ 1,523.9
$ 1,581.2
$ 1,631.6
$ 1,679.5
$ 1,721.0
$ 1,759.5
$ 1,794.7
$ 1,829.3
$ 1,863.5
$ 1,867.9
$ 1,893.6
$ 27,440.5
  Notes:  All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
         Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
  Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
        Exhibit F.21J Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                                        (All Surface Water Systems)

TTHM - Preferred Alternative, SWAT Method
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 92.1
$ 238.6
$ 431.7
$ 668.3
$ 870.2
$ 1,057.9
$ 1,227.4
$ 1,380.8
$ 1,515.6
$ 1,631.2
$ 1,731.7
$ 1,820.5
$ 1,900.0
$ 1,972.1
$ 2,038.2
$ 2,099.3
$ 2,156.2
$ 2,209.6
$ 2,230.9
$ 2,272.9
$ 29,545.3
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 14.1
$ 36.5
$ 66.1
$ 102.3
$ 133.0
$ 161.8
$ 187.5
$ 210.8
$ 231.1
$ 248.5
$ 263.7
$ 276.9
$ 288.9
$ 300.0
$ 309.8
$ 318.6
$ 326.8
$ 334.6
$ 338.1
$ 344.0
$ 4,493.1
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 211.8
$ 548.8
$ 991.7
$ 1,535.1
$ 2,000.3
$ 2,432.9
$ 2,822.7
$ 3,178.5
$ 3,491.7
$ 3,764.2
$ 3,998.1
$ 4,203.3
$ 4,394.4
$ 4,562.3
$ 4,716.9
$ 4,858.5
$ 4,994.5
$ 5,126.3
$ 5,172.8
$ 5,275.1
$ 68,279.8
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 83.4
$ 198.3
$ 339.2
$ 503.3
$ 617.4
$ 715.9
$ 801.6
$ 880.8
$ 955.4
$ 1,026.1
$ 1,093.7
$ 1,158.6
$ 1,221.2
$ 1,281.7
$ 1,340.3
$ 1,397.3
$ 1,452.8
$ 1,506.9
$ 1,539.6
$ 1,586.8
$ 19,700.3
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 12.8
$ 30.4
$ 51.9
$ 77.0
$ 94.4
$ 109.5
$ 122.5
$ 134.5
$ 145.7
$ 156.3
$ 166.5
$ 176.2
$ 185.7
$ 194.9
$ 203.8
$ 212.1
$ 220.2
$ 228.2
$ 233.3
$ 240.1
$ 2,995.9
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 191.7
$ 456.2
$ 779.3
$ 1,156.1
$ 1,419.3
$ 1,646.4
$ 1,843.4
$ 2,027.6
$ 2,201.0
$ 2,367.9
$ 2,525.0
$ 2,675.1
$ 2,824.3
$ 2,965.0
$ 3,101.9
$ 3,234.0
$ 3,365.3
$ 3,496.0
$ 3,569.7
$ 3,682.6
$ 45,527.7
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 168.6
$ 415.1
$ 719.1
$ 1,069.1
$ 1,312.8
$ 1,504.4
$ 1,653.1
$ 1,775.0
$ 1,877.3
$ 1,964.7
$ 2,040.7
$ 2,107.7
$ 2,167.7
$ 2,222.1
$ 2,271.9
$ 2,318.1
$ 2,361.5
$ 2,402.4
$ 2,409.8
$ 2,441.0
$ 35,202.1
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 25.8
$ 63.6
$ 110.1
$ 163.6
$ 200.7
$ 230.0
$ 252.5
$ 271.0
$ 286.2
$ 299.3
$ 310.7
$ 320.6
$ 329.6
$ 338.0
$ 345.4
$ 351.9
$ 358.0
$ 363.7
$ 365.2
$ 369.4
$ 5,355.3
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 387.7
$ 954.7
$ 1,652.0
$ 2,455.6
$ 3,017.8
$ 3,459.9
$ 3,801.7
$ 4,085.8
$ 4,324.9
$ 4,533.9
$ 4,711.4
$ 4,866.5
$ 5,013.5
$ 5,140.4
$ 5,257.8
$ 5,365.1
$ 5,470.0
$ 5,573.5
$ 5,587.6
$ 5,665.1
$ 81,325.0
Notes:     All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
          Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
Source:    Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
     Exhibit F.21 k Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                             (Ground Water Systems Serving <100 People)

    TTHM - Preferred Alternative, SWAT Method

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 9.0
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 1.4
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.7
$ 0.8
$ 0.9
$ 1.0
$ 1.1
$ 1.2
$ 1.3
$ 1.4
$ 1.4
$ 1.5
$ 1.5
$ 1.6
$ 1.6
$ 1.6
$ 1.7
$ 20.7
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 5.8
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.9
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.8
$ 0.9
$ 0.9
$ 0.9
$ 1.0
$ 1.0
$ 1.1
$ 1.1
$ 1.2
$ 13.3
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 10.9
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 1.7
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.8
$ 1.0
$ 1.1
$ 1.3
$ 1.3
$ 1.4
$ 1.5
$ 1.6
$ 1.6
$ 1.7
$ 1.7
$ 1.7
$ 1.8
$ 1.8
$ 1.8
$ 1.8
$ 25.1
    Notes:   All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
           Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
    Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
      Exhibit F.211  Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                           (Ground Water Systems Serving 100-499 People)

    TTHM - Preferred Alternative, SWAT Method

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.4
$ 0.7
$ 1.1
$ 1.6
$ 2.2
$ 2.6
$ 3.0
$ 3.3
$ 3.7
$ 3.9
$ 4.2
$ 4.4
$ 4.6
$ 4.7
$ 4.9
$ 5.0
$ 5.2
$ 5.2
$ 5.3
$ 66.3
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 10.1
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.4
$ 0.9
$ 1.7
$ 2.6
$ 3.7
$ 5.0
$ 6.0
$ 6.9
$ 7.7
$ 8.4
$ 9.1
$ 9.6
$ 10.1
$ 10.5
$ 11.0
$ 11.3
$ 11.7
$ 12.0
$ 12.1
$ 12.4
$ 153.2
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.3
$ 0.5
$ 0.8
$ 1.1
$ 1.4
$ 1.6
$ 1.8
$ 2.0
$ 2.2
$ 2.4
$ 2.6
$ 2.7
$ 2.9
$ 3.0
$ 3.2
$ 3.3
$ 3.5
$ 3.6
$ 3.7
$ 42.6
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.6
$ 6.5
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.3
$ 0.7
$ 1.2
$ 1.7
$ 2.4
$ 3.2
$ 3.7
$ 4.2
$ 4.7
$ 5.1
$ 5.5
$ 5.9
$ 6.3
$ 6.7
$ 7.0
$ 7.4
$ 7.7
$ 8.0
$ 8.3
$ 8.6
$ 98.4
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.3
$ 0.7
$ 1.2
$ 1.8
$ 2.4
$ 3.1
$ 3.6
$ 4.0
$ 4.3
$ 4.6
$ 4.8
$ 5.0
$ 5.2
$ 5.3
$ 5.4
$ 5.6
$ 5.7
$ 5.8
$ 5.8
$ 5.9
$ 80.3
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.9
$ 0.9
$ 0.9
$ 0.9
$ 12.2
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.6
$ 1.5
$ 2.7
$ 4.1
$ 5.6
$ 7.2
$ 8.3
$ 9.2
$ 10.0
$ 10.6
$ 11.1
$ 11.5
$ 11.9
$ 12.3
$ 12.6
$ 12.8
$ 13.1
$ 13.4
$ 13.4
$ 13.6
$ 185.6
    Notes:   All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
           Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
    Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
     Exhibit F.21m Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                           (Ground Water Systems Serving 500-999 People)

    TTHM - Preferred Alternative, SWAT Method

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.4
$ 0.8
$ 1.2
$ 1.7
$ 2.3
$ 2.8
$ 3.2
$ 3.6
$ 3.9
$ 4.2
$ 4.4
$ 4.7
$ 4.9
$ 5.0
$ 5.2
$ 5.4
$ 5.5
$ 5.6
$ 5.7
$ 70.5
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.9
$ 10.7
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.4
$ 1.0
$ 1.8
$ 2.8
$ 4.0
$ 5.3
$ 6.4
$ 7.3
$ 8.2
$ 9.0
$ 9.6
$ 10.2
$ 10.8
$ 11.2
$ 11.7
$ 12.0
$ 12.4
$ 12.8
$ 12.9
$ 13.2
$ 163.0
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.3
$ 0.5
$ 0.8
$ 1.1
$ 1.5
$ 1.7
$ 1.9
$ 2.1
$ 2.3
$ 2.5
$ 2.7
$ 2.9
$ 3.1
$ 3.2
$ 3.4
$ 3.5
$ 3.7
$ 3.8
$ 3.9
$ 45.3
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 6.9
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.3
$ 0.7
$ 1.2
$ 1.9
$ 2.6
$ 3.4
$ 3.9
$ 4.5
$ 4.9
$ 5.4
$ 5.9
$ 6.3
$ 6.7
$ 7.1
$ 7.5
$ 7.8
$ 8.2
$ 8.6
$ 8.8
$ 9.1
$ 104.7
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.3
$ 0.7
$ 1.3
$ 1.9
$ 2.6
$ 3.3
$ 3.9
$ 4.3
$ 4.6
$ 4.9
$ 5.1
$ 5.3
$ 5.5
$ 5.6
$ 5.8
$ 5.9
$ 6.0
$ 6.1
$ 6.2
$ 6.2
$ 85.4
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.6
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.9
$ 0.9
$ 0.9
$ 0.9
$ 0.9
$ 0.9
$ 0.9
$ 13.0
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.7
$ 1.6
$ 2.9
$ 4.3
$ 5.9
$ 7.7
$ 8.9
$ 9.8
$ 10.6
$ 11.3
$ 11.8
$ 12.3
$ 12.7
$ 13.1
$ 13.4
$ 13.7
$ 14.0
$ 14.2
$ 14.3
$ 14.5
$ 197.4
    Notes:   All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
           Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
    Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
     Exhibit F.21n Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                          (Ground Water Systems Serving 1,000-3,299 People)

    TTHM - Preferred Alternative, SWAT Method

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.4
$ 1.1
$ 2.0
$ 3.1
$ 4.4
$ 5.8
$ 7.0
$ 8.1
$ 9.0
$ 9.8
$ 10.5
$ 11.2
$ 11.7
$ 12.3
$ 12.7
$ 13.1
$ 13.5
$ 13.9
$ 14.1
$ 14.4
$ 178.1
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.5
$ 0.7
$ 0.9
$ 1.1
$ 1.2
$ 1.4
$ 1.5
$ 1.6
$ 1.7
$ 1.8
$ 1.9
$ 1.9
$ 2.0
$ 2.1
$ 2.1
$ 2.1
$ 2.2
$ 27.1
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.0
$ 2.5
$ 4.6
$ 7.1
$ 10.1
$ 13.4
$ 16.1
$ 18.5
$ 20.7
$ 22.6
$ 24.4
$ 25.8
$ 27.2
$ 28.4
$ 29.4
$ 30.4
$ 31.4
$ 32.3
$ 32.6
$ 33.3
$ 411.7
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.3
$ 0.8
$ 1.4
$ 2.0
$ 2.8
$ 3.7
$ 4.3
$ 4.9
$ 5.4
$ 5.9
$ 6.4
$ 6.9
$ 7.3
$ 7.7
$ 8.1
$ 8.5
$ 8.9
$ 9.3
$ 9.6
$ 9.9
$ 114.3
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.6
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.8
$ 0.9
$ 1.0
$ 1.0
$ 1.1
$ 1.2
$ 1.2
$ 1.3
$ 1.4
$ 1.4
$ 1.4
$ 1.5
$ 17.4
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.7
$ 1.8
$ 3.1
$ 4.7
$ 6.5
$ 8.5
$ 10.0
$ 11.3
$ 12.5
$ 13.7
$ 14.8
$ 15.8
$ 16.9
$ 17.9
$ 18.9
$ 19.8
$ 20.7
$ 21.6
$ 22.2
$ 23.0
$ 264.3
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.7
$ 1.8
$ 3.2
$ 4.8
$ 6.5
$ 8.5
$ 9.8
$ 10.8
$ 11.6
$ 12.3
$ 12.9
$ 13.4
$ 13.9
$ 14.2
$ 14.6
$ 14.9
$ 15.2
$ 15.5
$ 15.5
$ 15.7
$ 215.8
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.3
$ 0.5
$ 0.7
$ 1.0
$ 1.3
$ 1.5
$ 1.6
$ 1.8
$ 1.9
$ 2.0
$ 2.0
$ 2.1
$ 2.2
$ 2.2
$ 2.3
$ 2.3
$ 2.3
$ 2.4
$ 2.4
$ 32.8
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.6
$ 4.1
$ 7.3
$ 10.9
$ 15.0
$ 19.4
$ 22.4
$ 24.8
$ 26.8
$ 28.4
$ 29.8
$ 31.0
$ 32.0
$ 33.0
$ 33.8
$ 34.5
$ 35.2
$ 35.9
$ 36.0
$ 36.5
$ 498.7
    Notes:   All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
           Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
    Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
     Exhibit F.21o Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                          (Ground Water Systems Serving 3,300-9,999 People)

    TTHM - Preferred Alternative, SWAT Method

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.8
$ 2.1
$ 3.8
$ 5.8
$ 8.3
$ 11.0
$ 13.3
$ 15.2
$ 17.0
$ 18.6
$ 19.9
$ 21.1
$ 22.2
$ 23.2
$ 24.0
$ 24.8
$ 25.6
$ 26.3
$ 26.6
$ 27.1
$ 336.8
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.3
$ 0.6
$ 0.9
$ 1.3
$ 1.7
$ 2.0
$ 2.3
$ 2.6
$ 2.8
$ 3.0
$ 3.2
$ 3.4
$ 3.5
$ 3.7
$ 3.8
$ 3.9
$ 4.0
$ 4.0
$ 4.1
$ 51.2
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.8
$ 4.8
$ 8.7
$ 13.4
$ 19.0
$ 25.4
$ 30.5
$ 35.0
$ 39.1
$ 42.8
$ 46.0
$ 48.8
$ 51.4
$ 53.6
$ 55.6
$ 57.5
$ 59.3
$ 61.0
$ 61.6
$ 63.0
$ 778.4
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.6
$ 1.5
$ 2.6
$ 3.9
$ 5.3
$ 7.0
$ 8.2
$ 9.3
$ 10.3
$ 11.2
$ 12.1
$ 13.0
$ 13.8
$ 14.6
$ 15.4
$ 16.2
$ 16.9
$ 17.6
$ 18.1
$ 18.7
$ 216.2
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.4
$ 0.6
$ 0.8
$ 1.1
$ 1.2
$ 1.4
$ 1.6
$ 1.7
$ 1.8
$ 2.0
$ 2.1
$ 2.2
$ 2.3
$ 2.5
$ 2.6
$ 2.7
$ 2.7
$ 2.8
$ 32.9
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.4
$ 3.4
$ 5.9
$ 8.9
$ 12.3
$ 16.1
$ 18.8
$ 21.3
$ 23.6
$ 25.9
$ 28.0
$ 30.0
$ 32.0
$ 33.8
$ 35.7
$ 37.4
$ 39.2
$ 40.9
$ 41.9
$ 43.4
$ 499.7
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.4
$ 3.4
$ 6.0
$ 9.0
$ 12.3
$ 16.0
$ 18.4
$ 20.4
$ 22.0
$ 23.3
$ 24.4
$ 25.4
$ 26.2
$ 26.9
$ 27.6
$ 28.2
$ 28.8
$ 29.3
$ 29.4
$ 29.8
$ 408.0
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.5
$ 0.9
$ 1.4
$ 1.9
$ 2.4
$ 2.8
$ 3.1
$ 3.3
$ 3.5
$ 3.7
$ 3.9
$ 4.0
$ 4.1
$ 4.2
$ 4.3
$ 4.4
$ 4.4
$ 4.5
$ 4.5
$ 62.1
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 3.1
$ 7.8
$ 13.7
$ 20.6
$ 28.3
$ 36.7
$ 42.4
$ 46.9
$ 50.6
$ 53.7
$ 56.3
$ 58.6
$ 60.6
$ 62.3
$ 63.9
$ 65.3
$ 66.6
$ 67.9
$ 68.1
$ 69.1
$ 942.8
    Notes:   All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
           Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
    Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
     Exhibit F.21p Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                         (Ground Water Systems Serving 10,000-49,999 People)

    TTHM - Preferred Alternative, SWAT Method

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.0
$ 2.6
$ 4.7
$ 7.2
$ 10.2
$ 13.1
$ 15.6
$ 17.7
$ 19.7
$ 21.4
$ 22.9
$ 24.2
$ 25.4
$ 26.5
$ 27.4
$ 28.3
$ 29.1
$ 29.9
$ 30.2
$ 30.8
$ 388.1
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.4
$ 0.7
$ 1.1
$ 1.6
$ 2.0
$ 2.4
$ 2.7
$ 3.0
$ 3.3
$ 3.5
$ 3.7
$ 3.9
$ 4.0
$ 4.2
$ 4.3
$ 4.4
$ 4.5
$ 4.6
$ 4.7
$ 59.0
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.3
$ 5.9
$ 10.7
$ 16.6
$ 23.5
$ 30.2
$ 35.8
$ 40.8
$ 45.3
$ 49.4
$ 52.9
$ 55.9
$ 58.7
$ 61.2
$ 63.5
$ 65.5
$ 67.5
$ 69.4
$ 70.1
$ 71.6
$ 896.9
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.8
$ 1.8
$ 3.2
$ 4.8
$ 6.6
$ 8.3
$ 9.5
$ 10.7
$ 11.9
$ 12.9
$ 13.9
$ 14.9
$ 15.8
$ 16.7
$ 17.6
$ 18.5
$ 19.3
$ 20.1
$ 20.6
$ 21.3
$ 249.4
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.3
$ 0.5
$ 0.7
$ 1.0
$ 1.3
$ 1.5
$ 1.6
$ 1.8
$ 2.0
$ 2.1
$ 2.3
$ 2.4
$ 2.5
$ 2.7
$ 2.8
$ 2.9
$ 3.0
$ 3.1
$ 3.2
$ 37.9
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.7
$ 4.2
$ 7.3
$ 11.0
$ 15.2
$ 19.0
$ 22.0
$ 24.7
$ 27.3
$ 29.8
$ 32.2
$ 34.4
$ 36.6
$ 38.7
$ 40.8
$ 42.8
$ 44.7
$ 46.7
$ 47.9
$ 49.5
$ 576.5
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.7
$ 4.2
$ 7.4
$ 11.1
$ 15.2
$ 18.9
$ 21.5
$ 23.6
$ 25.3
$ 26.7
$ 27.9
$ 28.9
$ 29.9
$ 30.7
$ 31.4
$ 32.1
$ 32.7
$ 33.3
$ 33.4
$ 33.8
$ 469.4
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.3
$ 0.6
$ 1.1
$ 1.7
$ 2.3
$ 2.9
$ 3.3
$ 3.6
$ 3.9
$ 4.1
$ 4.2
$ 4.4
$ 4.5
$ 4.7
$ 4.8
$ 4.9
$ 5.0
$ 5.0
$ 5.1
$ 5.1
$ 71.4
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 3.8
$ 9.7
$ 17.0
$ 25.5
$ 35.1
$ 43.4
$ 49.4
$ 54.2
$ 58.2
$ 61.6
$ 64.4
$ 66.8
$ 69.0
$ 70.9
$ 72.7
$ 74.2
$ 75.7
$ 77.2
$ 77.4
$ 78.4
$ 1,084.6
    Notes:   All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
           Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
    Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
     Exhibit F.21q Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                         (Ground Water Systems Serving 50,000-99,999 People)

    TTHM - Preferred Alternative, SWAT Method

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.4
$ 1.1
$ 2.0
$ 3.0
$ 4.1
$ 4.9
$ 5.7
$ 6.4
$ 7.1
$ 7.6
$ 8.1
$ 8.5
$ 8.9
$ 9.2
$ 9.5
$ 9.8
$ 10.1
$ 10.3
$ 10.4
$ 10.6
$ 137.7
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.5
$ 0.6
$ 0.8
$ 0.9
$ 1.0
$ 1.1
$ 1.2
$ 1.2
$ 1.3
$ 1.3
$ 1.4
$ 1.4
$ 1.5
$ 1.5
$ 1.6
$ 1.6
$ 1.6
$ 20.9
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.0
$ 2.5
$ 4.5
$ 6.9
$ 9.3
$ 11.4
$ 13.2
$ 14.8
$ 16.2
$ 17.5
$ 18.6
$ 19.6
$ 20.5
$ 21.3
$ 22.0
$ 22.7
$ 23.3
$ 24.0
$ 24.2
$ 24.7
$ 318.1
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.3
$ 0.8
$ 1.3
$ 2.0
$ 2.6
$ 3.1
$ 3.5
$ 3.9
$ 4.2
$ 4.6
$ 4.9
$ 5.2
$ 5.6
$ 5.9
$ 6.2
$ 6.4
$ 6.7
$ 7.0
$ 7.2
$ 7.4
$ 88.7
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.9
$ 0.9
$ 1.0
$ 1.0
$ 1.1
$ 1.1
$ 1.1
$ 13.5
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.7
$ 1.8
$ 3.1
$ 4.6
$ 6.0
$ 7.0
$ 8.0
$ 8.9
$ 9.8
$ 10.6
$ 11.4
$ 12.1
$ 12.9
$ 13.6
$ 14.3
$ 14.9
$ 15.6
$ 16.2
$ 16.6
$ 17.2
$ 205.1
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.7
$ 1.8
$ 3.1
$ 4.7
$ 6.0
$ 7.0
$ 7.8
$ 8.4
$ 8.9
$ 9.3
$ 9.7
$ 10.0
$ 10.3
$ 10.6
$ 10.8
$ 11.0
$ 11.2
$ 11.4
$ 11.5
$ 11.6
$ 165.9
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.3
$ 0.5
$ 0.7
$ 0.9
$ 1.1
$ 1.2
$ 1.3
$ 1.4
$ 1.4
$ 1.5
$ 1.5
$ 1.6
$ 1.6
$ 1.6
$ 1.7
$ 1.7
$ 1.7
$ 1.7
$ 1.8
$ 25.2
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.6
$ 4.1
$ 7.1
$ 10.7
$ 13.8
$ 16.1
$ 17.8
$ 19.3
$ 20.5
$ 21.5
$ 22.4
$ 23.2
$ 23.9
$ 24.5
$ 25.1
$ 25.6
$ 26.1
$ 26.5
$ 26.6
$ 26.9
$ 383.3
    Notes:   All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
           Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
    Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
      Exhibit F.21r Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                       (Ground Water Systems Serving 100,000-999,999 People)

    TTHM - Preferred Alternative, SWAT Method

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.1
$ 3.0
$ 5.4
$ 8.4
$ 10.7
$ 12.7
$ 14.6
$ 16.3
$ 17.8
$ 19.0
$ 20.1
$ 21.1
$ 22.0
$ 22.8
$ 23.6
$ 24.3
$ 24.9
$ 25.6
$ 25.8
$ 26.3
$ 345.7
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.5
$ 0.8
$ 1.3
$ 1.6
$ 1.9
$ 2.2
$ 2.5
$ 2.7
$ 2.9
$ 3.1
$ 3.2
$ 3.4
$ 3.5
$ 3.6
$ 3.7
$ 3.8
$ 3.9
$ 3.9
$ 4.0
$ 52.6
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.6
$ 6.9
$ 12.4
$ 19.2
$ 24.5
$ 29.3
$ 33.6
$ 37.5
$ 40.9
$ 43.9
$ 46.5
$ 48.8
$ 51.0
$ 52.9
$ 54.6
$ 56.2
$ 57.8
$ 59.3
$ 59.8
$ 61.0
$ 799.0
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.9
$ 2.1
$ 3.7
$ 5.5
$ 6.7
$ 7.8
$ 8.8
$ 9.8
$ 10.7
$ 11.5
$ 12.3
$ 13.1
$ 13.9
$ 14.6
$ 15.3
$ 16.0
$ 16.7
$ 17.4
$ 17.8
$ 18.4
$ 223.2
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.3
$ 0.6
$ 0.8
$ 1.0
$ 1.2
$ 1.3
$ 1.5
$ 1.6
$ 1.8
$ 1.9
$ 2.0
$ 2.1
$ 2.2
$ 2.3
$ 2.4
$ 2.5
$ 2.6
$ 2.7
$ 2.8
$ 33.9
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.0
$ 4.9
$ 8.5
$ 12.7
$ 15.5
$ 18.0
$ 20.3
$ 22.5
$ 24.6
$ 26.6
$ 28.5
$ 30.3
$ 32.1
$ 33.8
$ 35.5
$ 37.1
$ 38.7
$ 40.3
$ 41.3
$ 42.7
$ 515.9
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.9
$ 4.9
$ 8.6
$ 12.9
$ 15.7
$ 17.8
$ 19.6
$ 21.0
$ 22.2
$ 23.3
$ 24.1
$ 24.9
$ 25.6
$ 26.2
$ 26.8
$ 27.3
$ 27.8
$ 28.2
$ 28.3
$ 28.6
$ 415.8
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.3
$ 0.7
$ 1.3
$ 2.0
$ 2.4
$ 2.7
$ 3.0
$ 3.2
$ 3.4
$ 3.5
$ 3.7
$ 3.8
$ 3.9
$ 4.0
$ 4.1
$ 4.1
$ 4.2
$ 4.3
$ 4.3
$ 4.3
$ 63.3
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 4.5
$ 11.2
$ 19.7
$ 29.6
$ 36.0
$ 41.0
$ 45.1
$ 48.4
$ 51.2
$ 53.7
$ 55.7
$ 57.5
$ 59.2
$ 60.6
$ 62.0
$ 63.2
$ 64.3
$ 65.5
$ 65.6
$ 66.5
$ 960.6
    Notes:   All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
           Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
    Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
     Exhibit F.21s Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                          (Ground Water Systems Serving >1,000,000 People)

    TTHM - Preferred Alternative, SWAT Method

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.5
$ 0.9
$ 1.4
$ 1.8
$ 2.1
$ 2.4
$ 2.7
$ 3.0
$ 3.2
$ 3.4
$ 3.5
$ 3.7
$ 3.8
$ 3.9
$ 4.0
$ 4.2
$ 4.3
$ 4.3
$ 4.4
$ 57.6
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 8.8
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.4
$ 1.1
$ 2.1
$ 3.2
$ 4.1
$ 4.9
$ 5.6
$ 6.2
$ 6.8
$ 7.3
$ 7.7
$ 8.1
$ 8.5
$ 8.8
$ 9.1
$ 9.4
$ 9.6
$ 9.9
$ 10.0
$ 10.2
$ 133.1
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.4
$ 0.6
$ 0.9
$ 1.1
$ 1.3
$ 1.5
$ 1.6
$ 1.8
$ 1.9
$ 2.1
$ 2.2
$ 2.3
$ 2.4
$ 2.6
$ 2.7
$ 2.8
$ 2.9
$ 3.0
$ 3.1
$ 37.2
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 5.7
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.3
$ 0.8
$ 1.4
$ 2.1
$ 2.6
$ 3.0
$ 3.4
$ 3.7
$ 4.1
$ 4.4
$ 4.7
$ 5.0
$ 5.3
$ 5.6
$ 5.9
$ 6.2
$ 6.5
$ 6.7
$ 6.9
$ 7.1
$ 85.9
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.3
$ 0.8
$ 1.4
$ 2.1
$ 2.6
$ 3.0
$ 3.3
$ 3.5
$ 3.7
$ 3.9
$ 4.0
$ 4.1
$ 4.3
$ 4.4
$ 4.5
$ 4.5
$ 4.6
$ 4.7
$ 4.7
$ 4.8
$ 69.2
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.0
$ 0.1
$ 0.2
$ 0.3
$ 0.4
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.5
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.6
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 10.5
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.7
$ 1.9
$ 3.3
$ 4.9
$ 6.0
$ 6.8
$ 7.5
$ 8.1
$ 8.5
$ 8.9
$ 9.3
$ 9.6
$ 9.9
$ 10.1
$ 10.3
$ 10.5
$ 10.7
$ 10.9
$ 10.9
$ 11.1
$ 160.0
    Notes:   All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
           Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
    Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
      Exhibit F.21t Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                                      (All Ground Water Systems)

 TTHM - Preferred Alternative, SWAT Method
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 4.3
$ 11.2
$ 20.3
$ 31.5
$ 43.0
$ 54.6
$ 64.3
$ 73.0
$ 80.8
$ 87.6
$ 93.6
$ 98.8
$ 103.5
$ 107.8
$ 111.6
$ 115.2
$ 118.5
$ 121.6
$ 122.9
$ 125.4
$ 1,589.7
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.7
$ 1.7
$ 3.1
$ 4.8
$ 6.6
$ 8.3
$ 9.8
$ 11.2
$ 12.3
$ 13.3
$ 14.3
$ 15.0
$ 15.7
$ 16.4
$ 17.0
$ 17.5
$ 18.0
$ 18.4
$ 18.6
$ 19.0
$ 241.7
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 9.9
$ 25.8
$ 46.7
$ 72.3
$ 98.7
$ 125.6
$ 148.0
$ 168.1
$ 186.1
$ 202.2
$ 216.1
$ 228.2
$ 239.4
$ 249.3
$ 258.3
$ 266.6
$ 274.5
$ 282.2
$ 285.1
$ 291 .0
$ 3,674.2
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 3.3
$ 8.0
$ 13.9
$ 20.8
$ 27.5
$ 34.2
$ 39.4
$ 44.1
$ 48.6
$ 52.9
$ 57.0
$ 60.9
$ 64.7
$ 68.4
$ 71.9
$ 75.4
$ 78.7
$ 82.0
$ 84.1
$ 86.9
$ 1,022.6
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.5
$ 1.2
$ 2.1
$ 3.2
$ 4.2
$ 5.2
$ 6.0
$ 6.7
$ 7.4
$ 8.1
$ 8.7
$ 9.3
$ 9.8
$ 10.4
$ 10.9
$ 11.4
$ 11.9
$ 12.4
$ 12.7
$ 13.2
$ 155.5
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 7.6
$ 18.3
$ 31.8
$ 47.8
$ 63.3
$ 78.6
$ 90.5
$ 101.6
$ 112.1
$ 122.1
$ 131.6
$ 140.6
$ 149.6
$ 158.1
$ 166.4
$ 174.4
$ 182.3
$ 190.2
$ 194.9
$ 201 .7
$ 2,363.7
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 7.3
$ 18.3
$ 32.2
$ 48.4
$ 63.8
$ 78.0
$ 88.3
$ 96.5
$ 103.2
$ 108.8
$ 113.6
$ 117.8
$ 121.4
$ 124.7
$ 127.6
$ 130.3
$ 132.8
$ 135.1
$ 135.5
$ 137.2
$ 1,920.8
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.1
$ 2.8
$ 4.9
$ 7.4
$ 9.7
$ 11.9
$ 13.5
$ 14.7
$ 15.7
$ 16.6
$ 17.3
$ 17.9
$ 18.5
$ 19.0
$ 19.4
$ 19.8
$ 20.1
$ 20.5
$ 20.5
$ 20.8
$ 292.2
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 16.8
$ 42.2
$ 74.1
$ 111.2
$ 146.5
$ 179.4
$ 203.0
$ 222.0
$ 237.7
$ 251 .2
$ 262.4
$ 272.0
$ 280.9
$ 288.4
$ 295.3
$ 301 .5
$ 307.5
$ 313.4
$ 314.1
$ 318.4
$ 4,438.1
 Notes:  All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
       Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
 Source: Derived from Exhibits F.1f and Stage 2 DBPR Benefits Model.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
       Exhibit F.21 u  Projections of Yearly Benefits, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases
                                           (All Water Systems)

 TTHM - Preferred Alternative, SWAT Method
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
-
-
-
$
$ 96.4
$ 249.8
$ 452.0
$ 699.8
$ 913.1
$ 1,112.5
$ 1,291.8
$ 1 ,453.9
$ 1 ,596.4
$ 1,718.8
$ 1 ,825.3
$ 1,919.3
$ 2,003.6
$ 2,079.9
$ 2,149.8
$ 2,214.5
$ 2,274.7
$ 2,331.3
$ 2,353.9
$ 2,398.3
$ 31,135.0
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
-
-
-
-
$ 14.8
$ 38.3
$ 69.2
$ 107.1
$ 139.6
$ 170.1
$ 197.3
$ 222.0
$ 243.4
$ 261 .8
$ 277.9
$ 291 .9
$ 304.7
$ 316.3
$ 326.8
$ 336.1
$ 344.8
$ 353.0
$ 356.7
$ 362.9
$ 4,734.8
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
-
-
-
$
$ 221 .7
$ 574.6
$ 1 ,038.4
$ 1 ,607.4
$ 2,099.1
$ 2,558.5
$ 2,970.7
$ 3,346.7
$ 3,677.8
$ 3,966.4
$ 4,214.1
$ 4,431 .5
$ 4,633.8
$ 4,811.6
$ 4,975.2
$ 5,125.1
$ 5,269.1
$ 5,408.4
$ 5,457.8
$ 5,566.1
$ 71,954.0
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
-
-
-
$
$ 86.7
$ 206.3
$ 353.1
$ 524.1
$ 645.0
$ 750.0
$ 840.9
$ 925.0
$ 1 ,004.0
$ 1 ,079.0
$ 1,150.7
$ 1,219.5
$ 1 ,285.9
$ 1 ,350.0
$ 1,412.2
$ 1 ,472.7
$ 1,531.5
$ 1 ,588.9
$ 1 ,623.6
$ 1 ,673.7
$ 20,722.9
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
-
-
-
$
$ 13.3
$ 31.6
$ 54.0
$ 80.2
$ 98.6
$ 114.7
$ 128.5
$ 141.2
$ 153.1
$ 164.4
$ 175.2
$ 185.5
$ 195.5
$ 205.3
$ 214.7
$ 223.5
$ 232.2
$ 240.6
$ 246.0
$ 253.3
$ 3,151.4
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
-
-
-
$
$ 199.2
$ 474.5
$ 811.1
$ 1 ,203.9
$ 1 ,482.6
$ 1 ,725.0
$ 1 ,933.9
$ 2,129.2
$ 2,313.0
$ 2,490.0
$ 2,656.6
$ 2,815.7
$ 2,974.0
$ 3,123.2
$ 3,268.3
$ 3,408.3
$ 3,547.6
$ 3,686.1
$ 3,764.6
$ 3,884.4
$ 47,891.4
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
-
-
-
$
$ 175.9
$ 433.4
$ 751 .4
$ 1,117.5
$ 1 ,376.5
$ 1 ,582.5
$ 1 ,741 .4
$ 1 ,871 .4
$ 1 ,980.4
$ 2,073.5
$ 2,154.3
$ 2,225.5
$ 2,289.2
$ 2,346.7
$ 2,399.5
$ 2,448.4
$ 2,494.2
$ 2,537.5
$ 2,545.3
$ 2,578.2
$ 37,122.9
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
-
-
-
$
$ 26.9
$ 66.4
$ 115.0
$ 171.1
$ 210.4
$ 242.0
$ 266.0
$ 285.8
$ 302.0
$ 315.9
$ 328.0
$ 338.5
$ 348.1
$ 356.9
$ 364.8
$ 371 .6
$ 378.1
$ 384.2
$ 385.7
$ 390.2
$ 5,647.5
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
-
-
-
$
$ 404.4
$ 996.9
$ 1,726.1
$ 2,566.9
$ 3,164.4
$ 3,639.4
$ 4,004.7
$ 4,307.9
$ 4,562.6
$ 4,785.1
$ 4,973.8
$ 5,138.5
$ 5,294.3
$ 5,428.9
$ 5,553.1
$ 5,666.6
$ 5,777.6
$ 5,886.8
$ 5,901.7
$ 5,983.6
$ 85,763.1
 Notes:   All values in millions of year 2003 dollars.
        Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
 Source:  Derived from Exhibits F.2J and F.2t.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
    Exhibit F.21v Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal
                                         Cases, at 3% Discount Rate
                                             (All Water Systems)

 TTHM - Preferred Alternative, SWAT Method
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Ann.
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 83.2
$ 209.2
$ 367.5
$ 552.4
$ 699.8
$ 827.8
$ 933.2
$ 1,019.7
$ 1,087.1
$ 1,136.3
$ 1,171.6
$ 1,196.1
$ 1,212.2
$ 1,221.7
$ 1,226.0
$ 1,226.1
$ 1,222.8
$ 1,216.7
$ 1,192.7
$ 1,179.8
$ 18,981.9
$ 1,090.1
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 12.7
$ 32.0
$ 56.2
$ 84.6
$ 107.0
$ 126.6
$ 142.6
$ 155.7
$ 165.8
$ 173.1
$ 178.4
$ 181.9
$ 184.3
$ 185.8
$ 186.4
$ 186.1
$ 185.4
$ 184.2
$ 180.7
$ 178.5
$ 2,888.0
$ 165.9
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 191.2
$ 481.2
$ 844.3
$ 1,268.9
$ 1,608.8
$ 1,903.7
$ 2,146.1
$ 2,347.3
$ 2,504.4
$ 2,622.3
$ 2,704.9
$ 2,761.6
$ 2,803.5
$ 2,826.3
$ 2,837.3
$ 2,837.6
$ 2,832.4
$ 2,822.6
$ 2,765.4
$ 2,738.2
$ 43,848.0
$ 2,518.1
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 74.8
$ 172.8
$ 287.1
$ 413.8
$ 494.3
$ 558.1
$ 607.5
$ 648.8
$ 683.7
$ 713.3
$ 738.6
$ 760.0
$ 778.0
$ 793.0
$ 805.4
$ 815.4
$ 823.3
$ 829.2
$ 822.7
$ 823.3
$ 12,642.9
$ 726.1
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 11.4
$ 26.5
$ 43.9
$ 63.3
$ 75.6
$ 85.3
$ 92.8
$ 99.1
$ 104.2
$ 108.7
$ 112.5
$ 115.6
$ 118.3
$ 120.6
$ 122.4
$ 123.8
$ 124.8
$ 125.6
$ 124.7
$ 124.6
$ 1,923.6
$ 110.5
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 171.9
$ 397.4
$ 659.5
$ 950.4
$ 1,136.3
$ 1,283.5
$ 1,397.1
$ 1,493.4
$ 1,575.1
$ 1,646.2
$ 1,705.2
$ 1,754.7
$ 1,799.3
$ 1,834.5
$ 1,863.9
$ 1,887.1
$ 1,907.0
$ 1,923.8
$ 1,907.5
$ 1,910.9
$ 29,204.5
$ 1,677.2
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 151.8
$ 363.0
$ 610.9
$ 882.2
$ 1,055.0
$ 1,177.5
$ 1,258.0
$ 1,312.6
$ 1,348.6
$ 1,370.8
$ 1,382.8
$ 1,386.9
$ 1,385.0
$ 1,378.5
$ 1,368.4
$ 1,355.6
$ 1,340.8
$ 1,324.3
$ 1,289.7
$ 1,268.3
$ 23,010.6
$ 1,321.4
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 23.2
$ 55.6
$ 93.5
$ 135.0
$ 161.3
$ 180.1
$ 192.2
$ 200.4
$ 205.6
$ 208.8
$ 210.6
$ 210.9
$ 210.6
$ 209.7
$ 208.0
$ 205.8
$ 203.2
$ 200.5
$ 195.4
$ 191.9
$ 3,502.4
$ 201.1
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 348.9
$ 834.9
$ 1,403.5
$ 2,026.3
$ 2,425.2
$ 2,708.0
$ 2,893.1
$ 3,021.5
$ 3,106.9
$ 3,163.5
$ 3,192.5
$ 3,202.2
$ 3,203.2
$ 3,188.9
$ 3,166.9
$ 3,137.5
$ 3,105.7
$ 3,072.3
$ 2,990.3
$ 2,943.5
$ 53,134.6
$ 3,051.4
 Notes:     Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005.
          Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate.
          Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
 Source:    Derived from Exhibit F.21u.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
   Exhibit F.21w Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal
                                        Cases, at 7% Discount Rate
                                            (All Water Systems)

 TTHM - Preferred Alternative, SWAT Method

Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Ann.
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 68.8
$ 166.5
$ 281 .5
$ 407.3
$ 496.7
$ 565.5
$ 613.7
$ 645.5
$ 662.5
$ 666.6
$ 661 .6
$ 650.1
$ 634.3
$ 615.4
$ 594.4
$ 572.3
$ 549.4
$ 526.2
$ 496.5
$ 472.8
$ 10,347.4
$ 887.9
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 10.5
$ 25.5
$ 43.1
$ 62.3
$ 75.9
$ 86.5
$ 93.8
$ 98.6
$ 101.0
$ 101.5
$ 1 00.7
$ 98.9
$ 96.4
$ 93.6
$ 90.4
$ 86.9
$ 83.3
$ 79.7
$ 75.2
$ 71.6
$ 1,575.3
$ 135.2
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 158.0
$ 382.9
$ 646.7
$ 935.5
$ 1,141.8
$ 1 ,300.6
$ 1,411.4
$ 1 ,486.0
$ 1 ,526.2
$ 1 ,538.2
$ 1 ,527.4
$ 1,501.1
$ 1 ,466.9
$ 1 ,423.6
$ 1 ,375.7
$ 1 ,324.4
$ 1 ,272.5
$ 1 ,220.8
$ 1,151.3
$ 1 ,097.3
$ 23,888.3
$ 2,049.9
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 61.8
$ 137.5
$ 219.9
$ 305.1
$ 350.8
$ 381 .3
$ 399.5
$ 410.7
$ 416.6
$ 418.5
$ 417.1
$ 413.1
$ 407.1
$ 399.4
$ 390.5
$ 380.6
$ 369.9
$ 358.6
$ 342.5
$ 330.0
$ 6,910.3
$ 593.0
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 9.5
$ 21.0
$ 33.6
$ 46.7
$ 53.6
$ 58.3
$ 61.0
$ 62.7
$ 63.5
$ 63.7
$ 63.5
$ 62.8
$ 61.9
$ 60.8
$ 59.4
$ 57.8
$ 56.1
$ 54.3
$ 51.9
$ 49.9
$ 1,052.1
$ 90.3
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 142.0
$ 316.2
$ 505.1
$ 700.7
$ 806.5
$ 876.9
$ 918.8
$ 945.4
$ 959.8
$ 965.7
$ 962.9
$ 953.8
$ 941 .5
$ 924.0
$ 903.7
$ 880.8
$ 856.8
$ 832.0
$ 794.1
$ 765.8
$ 15,952.5
$ 1,368.9
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model

Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 125.4
$ 288.8
$ 467.9
$ 650.4
$ 748.7
$ 804.4
$ 827.3
$ 830.9
$ 821 .8
$ 804.1
$ 780.8
$ 753.9
$ 724.7
$ 694.3
$ 663.5
$ 632.7
$ 602.4
$ 572.7
$ 536.9
$ 508.3
$ 12,840.2
$ 1,101.8
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 19.2
$ 44.2
$ 71.6
$ 99.6
$ 114.5
$ 123.0
$ 126.4
$ 126.9
$ 125.3
$ 122.5
$ 118.9
$ 114.7
$ 110.2
$ 105.6
$ 1 00.9
$ 96.0
$ 91.3
$ 86.7
$ 81.4
$ 76.9
$ 1,955.7
$ 167.8
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 288.4
$ 664.3
$ 1 ,074.9
$ 1 ,493.9
$ 1 ,721 .2
$ 1,850.1
$ 1 ,902.6
$ 1,912.7
$ 1 ,893.3
$ 1 ,855.7
$ 1 ,802.7
$ 1 ,740.6
$ 1,676.1
$ 1 ,606.2
$ 1 ,535.5
$ 1 ,464.4
$ 1 ,395.4
$ 1 ,328.7
$ 1 ,244.9
$ 1,179.6
$ 29,631.3
$ 2,542.7
 Notes:    Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to
          Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate.
          Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
 Source:   Derived from Exhibit F.21 u.
                                                               2005.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
December 2005

-------
                     Exhibit F.21x  Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 3% Discount Rate, by Small & Large Size Categories
                                                                                         (Surface Water Systems)
  TTHM - Preferred Alternative, SWAT Method
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Ann.
Small Systems
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.9
$ 4.8
$ 8.5
$ 12.8
$ 17.6
$ 22.8
$ 26.6
$ 29.6
$ 32.1
$ 34.0
$ 35.5
$ 36.6
$ 37.3
$ 37.8
$ 38.1
$ 38.2
$ 38.2
$ 38.1
$ 37.4
$ 37.0
$ 564.9
$ 32.4
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.3
$ 0.7
$ 1.3
$ 2.0
$ 2.7
$ 3.5
$ 4.1
$ 4.5
$ 4.9
$ 5.2
$ 5.4
$ 5.6
$ 5.7
$ 5.7
$ 5.8
$ 5.8
$ 5.8
$ 5.8
$ 5.7
$ 5.6
$ 85.9
$ 4.9
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 4.4
$ 11.1
$ 19.6
$ 29.4
$ 40.4
$ 52.4
$ 61.1
$ 68.2
$ 73.9
$ 78.6
$ 82.0
$ 84.4
$ 86.3
$ 87.4
$ 88.1
$ 88.4
$ 88.4
$ 88.3
$ 86.7
$ 86.0
$ 1,305.2
$ 75.0
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.5
$ 3.4
$ 5.8
$ 8.5
$ 11.4
$ 14.5
$ 16.4
$ 18.0
$ 19.4
$ 20.6
$ 21.6
$ 22.4
$ 23.2
$ 23.8
$ 24.4
$ 24.8
$ 25.2
$ 25.5
$ 25.4
$ 25.6
$ 361.3
$ 20.8
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.5
$ 0.9
$ 1.3
$ 1.7
$ 2.2
$ 2.5
$ 2.8
$ 3.0
$ 3.1
$ 3.3
$ 3.4
$ 3.5
$ 3.6
$ 3.7
$ 3.8
$ 3.8
$ 3.9
$ 3.9
$ 3.9
$ 55.0
$ 3.2
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 3.4
$ 7.9
$ 13.3
$ 19.4
$ 26.1
$ 33.2
$ 37.7
$ 41.5
$ 44.7
$ 47.4
$ 49.8
$ 51.8
$ 53.7
$ 55.1
$ 56.4
$ 57.5
$ 58.4
$ 59.2
$ 59.0
$ 59.3
$ 834.9
$ 47.9
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 3.2
$ 7.9
$ 13.5
$ 19.7
$ 26.2
$ 33.0
$ 37.0
$ 39.7
$ 41.5
$ 42.7
$ 43.5
$ 43.9
$ 44.0
$ 43.9
$ 43.7
$ 43.3
$ 42.9
$ 42.4
$ 41.3
$ 40.6
$ 694.1
$ 39.9
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.5
$ 1.2
$ 2.1
$ 3.0
$ 4.0
$ 5.0
$ 5.6
$ 6.1
$ 6.3
$ 6.5
$ 6.6
$ 6.7
$ 6.7
$ 6.7
$ 6.6
$ 6.6
$ 6.5
$ 6.4
$ 6.3
$ 6.2
$ 105.6
$ 6.1
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 7.4
$ 18.2
$ 31.0
$ 45.2
$ 60.3
$ 75.9
$ 85.0
$ 91.3
$ 95.7
$ 98.6
$ 100.4
$ 101.3
$ 101.8
$ 101.6
$ 101.1
$ 100.3
$ 99.4
$ 98.4
$ 95.8
$ 94.3
$ 1,603.1
$ 92.1
Large Systems
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 77.5
$ 195.0
$ 342.5
$ 514.8
$ 649.3
$ 764.3
$ 860.1
$ 938.9
$ 1,000.0
$ 1,044.3
$ 1,076.0
$ 1,097.9
$ 1,112.3
$ 1,120.7
$ 1,124.3
$ 1,124.1
$ 1,120.9
$ 1,115.1
$ 1,093.0
$ 1,081.1
$ 17,452.1
$ 1,002.2
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 11.9
$ 29.9
$ 52.4
$ 78.8
$ 99.3
$ 116.9
$ 131.4
$ 143.4
$ 152.5
$ 159.1
$ 163.8
$ 167.0
$ 169.1
$ 170.4
$ 170.9
$ 170.6
$ 169.9
$ 168.8
$ 165.6
$ 163.6
$ 2,655.3
$ 152.5
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 178.3
$ 448.5
$ 786.8
$ 1,182.5
$ 1,492.6
$ 1,757.9
$ 1,978.0
$ 2,161.2
$ 2,303.8
$ 2,410.0
$ 2,484.2
$ 2,534.9
$ 2,572.4
$ 2,592.5
$ 2,601.9
$ 2,601.7
$ 2,596.4
$ 2,587.0
$ 2,534.3
$ 2,509.0
$ 40,313.7
$ 2,315.1
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 70.5
$ 162.7
$ 270.0
$ 388.9
$ 461.8
$ 518.2
$ 562.7
$ 599.8
$ 631.2
$ 657.8
$ 680.4
$ 699.6
$ 715.6
$ 729.0
$ 740.0
$ 748.8
$ 755.7
$ 760.9
$ 754.6
$ 755.0
$ 11,663.3
$ 669.8
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 10.8
$ 24.9
$ 41.3
$ 59.5
$ 70.6
$ 79.2
$ 86.0
$ 91.6
$ 96.2
$ 100.2
$ 103.6
$ 106.4
$ 108.8
$ 110.9
$ 112.5
$ 113.7
$ 114.6
$ 115.2
$ 114.4
$ 114.3
$ 1,774.6
$ 101.9
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 162.0
$ 374.1
$ 620.3
$ 893.2
$ 1,061.7
$ 1,191.8
$ 1,294.0
$ 1,380.7
$ 1,454.1
$ 1,518.0
$ 1,570.9
$ 1,615.2
$ 1,655.1
$ 1,686.5
$ 1,712.5
$ 1,733.1
$ 1,750.6
$ 1,765.3
$ 1,749.8
$ 1,752.3
$ 26,941.2
$ 1,547.2
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 142.2
$ 339.7
$ 571.2
$ 824.3
$ 979.9
$ 1,086.4
$ 1,157.3
$ 1,205.3
$ 1,236.8
$ 1,256.2
$ 1,266.4
$ 1,269.6
$ 1,267.5
$ 1,261.3
$ 1,251.9
$ 1,240.2
$ 1,226.5
$ 1,211.4
$ 1,179.7
$ 1,160.2
$ 21,133.9
$ 1,213.7
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 21.8
$ 52.0
$ 87.4
$ 126.2
$ 149.8
$ 166.1
$ 176.8
$ 184.0
$ 188.6
$ 191.4
$ 192.8
$ 193.1
$ 192.7
$ 191.8
$ 190.3
$ 188.2
$ 185.9
$ 183.4
$ 178.8
$ 175.6
$ 3,216.8
$ 184.7
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 326.9
$ 781.4
$ 1,312.2
$ 1,893.3
$ 2,252.6
$ 2,498.6
$ 2,661.4
$ 2,774.4
$ 2,849.4
$ 2,898.8
$ 2,923.7
$ 2,931.4
$ 2,931.5
$ 2,917.9
$ 2,897.3
$ 2,870.2
$ 2,841.0
$ 2,810.4
$ 2,735.4
$ 2,692.5
$ 48,800.2
$ 2,802.5
           Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005.
           Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate.
           Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
           Derived from Exhibits F.21a through F.21L
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
                                                                                                                                                                                           December 2005

-------
                     Exhibit F.21y  Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 7% Discount Rate, by Small & Large Size Categories
                                                                                         (Surface Water Systems)
  TTHM - Preferred Alternative, SWAT Method
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Ann.
Small Systems
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.6
$ 3.9
$ 6.5
$ 9.4
$ 12.5
$ 15.6
$ 17.5
$ 18.8
$ 19.6
$ 20.0
$ 20.1
$ 19.9
$ 19.5
$ 19.0
$ 18.5
$ 17.8
$ 17.2
$ 16.5
$ 15.6
$ 14.8
$ 304.0
$ 26.1
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.6
$ 1.0
$ 1.4
$ 1.9
$ 2.4
$ 2.7
$ 2.9
$ 3.0
$ 3.0
$ 3.1
$ 3.0
$ 3.0
$ 2.9
$ 2.8
$ 2.7
$ 2.6
$ 2.5
$ 2.4
$ 2.2
$ 46.3
$ 4.0
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 3.6
$ 8.9
$ 15.0
$ 21.7
$ 28.7
$ 35.8
$ 40.2
$ 43.2
$ 45.1
$ 46.1
$ 46.3
$ 45.9
$ 45.1
$ 44.0
$ 42.7
$ 41.2
$ 39.7
$ 38.2
$ 36.1
$ 34.5
$ 702.0
$ 60.2
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.2
$ 2.7
$ 4.4
$ 6.2
$ 8.1
$ 9.9
$ 10.8
$ 11.4
$ 11.8
$ 12.1
$ 12.2
$ 12.2
$ 12.1
$ 12.0
$ 11.8
$ 11.6
$ 11.3
$ 11.0
$ 10.6
$ 10.2
$ 193.8
$ 16.6
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.4
$ 0.7
$ 1.0
$ 1.2
$ 1.5
$ 1.6
$ 1.7
$ 1.8
$ 1.8
$ 1.9
$ 1.9
$ 1.8
$ 1.8
$ 1.8
$ 1.8
$ 1.7
$ 1.7
$ 1.6
$ 1.6
$ 29.5
$ 2.5
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.8
$ 6.3
$ 10.2
$ 14.3
$ 18.5
$ 22.7
$ 24.8
$ 26.2
$ 27.2
$ 27.8
$ 28.1
$ 28.2
$ 28.1
$ 27.8
$ 27.4
$ 26.8
$ 26.2
$ 25.6
$ 24.6
$ 23.8
$ 447.5
$ 38.4
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.7
$ 6.3
$ 10.3
$ 14.5
$ 18.6
$ 22.5
$ 24.3
$ 25.1
$ 25.3
$ 25.1
$ 24.6
$ 23.8
$ 23.0
$ 22.1
$ 21.2
$ 20.2
$ 19.3
$ 18.3
$ 17.2
$ 16.3
$ 380.9
$ 32.7
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.4
$ 1.0
$ 1.6
$ 2.2
$ 2.8
$ 3.4
$ 3.7
$ 3.8
$ 3.9
$ 3.8
$ 3.7
$ 3.6
$ 3.5
$ 3.4
$ 3.2
$ 3.1
$ 2.9
$ 2.8
$ 2.6
$ 2.5
$ 58.0
$ 5.0
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 6.2
$ 14.5
$ 23.8
$ 33.3
$ 42.8
$ 51.8
$ 55.9
$ 57.8
$ 58.3
$ 57.8
$ 56.7
$ 55.1
$ 53.2
$ 51.2
$ 49.0
$ 46.8
$ 44.7
$ 42.6
$ 39.9
$ 37.8
$ 879.2
$ 75.4
Large Systems
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 64.1
$ 155.1
$ 262.3
$ 379.5
$ 460.8
$ 522.2
$ 565.7
$ 594.3
$ 609.4
$ 612.6
$ 607.6
$ 596.8
$ 582.0
$ 564.5
$ 545.1
$ 524.7
$ 503.6
$ 482.3
$ 455.0
$ 433.3
$ 9,520.9
$ 817.0
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 9.8
$ 23.8
$ 40.1
$ 58.1
$ 70.5
$ 79.8
$ 86.4
$ 90.8
$ 92.9
$ 93.3
$ 92.5
$ 90.8
$ 88.5
$ 85.9
$ 82.9
$ 79.6
$ 76.3
$ 73.0
$ 69.0
$ 65.6
$ 1,449.5
$ 124.4
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 147.3
$ 356.8
$ 602.6
$ 871.8
$ 1,059.3
$ 1,200.9
$ 1,300.8
$ 1,368.1
$ 1,403.9
$ 1,413.7
$ 1,402.8
$ 1,377.9
$ 1,346.0
$ 1,305.8
$ 1,261.6
$ 1,214.3
$ 1,166.5
$ 1,118.9
$ 1,055.1
$ 1,005.5
$ 21,979.7
$ 1,886.1
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 58.2
$ 129.4
$ 206.8
$ 286.7
$ 327.8
$ 354.0
$ 370.0
$ 379.7
$ 384.6
$ 385.9
$ 384.2
$ 380.3
$ 374.5
$ 367.2
$ 358.8
$ 349.5
$ 339.5
$ 329.1
$ 314.2
$ 302.6
$ 6,383.0
$ 547.7
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 8.9
$ 19.8
$ 31.6
$ 43.9
$ 50.1
$ 54.1
$ 56.5
$ 58.0
$ 58.6
$ 58.8
$ 58.5
$ 57.8
$ 56.9
$ 55.8
$ 54.5
$ 53.1
$ 51.5
$ 49.8
$ 47.6
$ 45.8
$ 971.9
$ 83.4
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 133.9
$ 297.7
$ 475.1
$ 658.5
$ 753.5
$ 814.2
$ 851.0
$ 874.0
$ 886.1
$ 890.5
$ 887.1
$ 878.0
$ 866.0
$ 849.5
$ 830.3
$ 808.9
$ 786.5
$ 763.5
$ 728.5
$ 702.3
$ 14,735.0
$ 1,264.4
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 117.6
$ 270.3
$ 437.5
$ 607.7
$ 695.4
$ 742.2
$ 761.1
$ 763.0
$ 753.7
$ 736.9
$ 715.1
$ 690.1
$ 663.2
$ 635.3
$ 607.0
$ 578.8
$ 551.0
$ 523.9
$ 491.1
$ 464.9
$ 11,806.0
$ 1,013.1
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 18.0
$ 41.4
$ 67.0
$ 93.0
$ 106.3
$ 113.5
$ 116.3
$ 116.5
$ 114.9
$ 112.2
$ 108.9
$ 105.0
$ 100.9
$ 96.6
$ 92.3
$ 87.9
$ 83.5
$ 79.3
$ 74.4
$ 70.4
$ 1,798.2
$ 154.3
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 270.2
$ 621.7
$ 1,005.1
$ 1,395.9
$ 1,598.7
$ 1,707.0
$ 1,750.2
$ 1,756.3
$ 1,736.4
$ 1,700.5
$ 1,650.9
$ 1,593.4
$ 1,533.9
$ 1,469.7
$ 1,404.8
$ 1,339.6
$ 1,276.4
$ 1,215.4
$ 1,138.8
$ 1,079.1
$ 27,244.1
$ 2,337.8
           Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005.
           Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate.
           Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
           Derived from Exhibits F.21a through F.21L
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
                                                                                                                                                                                           December 2005

-------
                     Exhibit F.21z Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 3% Discount Rate, by Small & Large Size Categories
                                                                                         (Ground Water Systems)
  TTHM - Preferred Alternative, SWAT Method
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Ann.
Small Systems
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.4
$ 3.4
$ 6.0
$ 9.0
$ 12.4
$ 16.1
$ 18.8
$ 20.9
$ 22.7
$ 24.1
$ 25.1
$ 25.8
$ 26.4
$ 26.7
$ 26.9
$ 27.0
$ 27.0
$ 26.9
$ 26.4
$ 26.2
$ 399.3
$ 22.9
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.5
$ 0.9
$ 1.4
$ 1.9
$ 2.5
$ 2.9
$ 3.2
$ 3.5
$ 3.7
$ 3.8
$ 3.9
$ 4.0
$ 4.1
$ 4.1
$ 4.1
$ 4.1
$ 4.1
$ 4.0
$ 4.0
$ 60.7
$ 3.5
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 3.1
$ 7.9
$ 13.8
$ 20.8
$ 28.6
$ 37.1
$ 43.2
$ 48.2
$ 52.3
$ 55.5
$ 58.0
$ 59.7
$ 61.0
$ 61.8
$ 62.3
$ 62.5
$ 62.5
$ 62.4
$ 61.3
$ 60.8
$ 922.5
$ 53.0
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.0
$ 2.4
$ 4.1
$ 6.0
$ 8.0
$ 10.2
$ 11.6
$ 12.7
$ 13.7
$ 14.5
$ 15.2
$ 15.9
$ 16.4
$ 16.9
$ 17.2
$ 17.6
$ 17.8
$ 18.0
$ 18.0
$ 18.1
$ 255.4
$ 14.7
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.4
$ 0.6
$ 0.9
$ 1.2
$ 1.6
$ 1.8
$ 1.9
$ 2.1
$ 2.2
$ 2.3
$ 2.4
$ 2.5
$ 2.6
$ 2.6
$ 2.7
$ 2.7
$ 2.7
$ 2.7
$ 2.7
$ 38.9
$ 2.2
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.4
$ 5.6
$ 9.4
$ 13.7
$ 18.5
$ 23.5
$ 26.7
$ 29.3
$ 31.6
$ 33.5
$ 35.2
$ 36.6
$ 37.9
$ 39.0
$ 39.9
$ 40.6
$ 41.3
$ 41.9
$ 41.7
$ 41.9
$ 590.2
$ 33.9
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.3
$ 5.6
$ 9.5
$ 13.9
$ 18.5
$ 23.3
$ 26.1
$ 28.0
$ 29.3
$ 30.2
$ 30.7
$ 31.0
$ 31.1
$ 31.0
$ 30.9
$ 30.6
$ 30.3
$ 30.0
$ 29.2
$ 28.7
$ 490.6
$ 28.2
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.4
$ 0.9
$ 1.5
$ 2.1
$ 2.8
$ 3.6
$ 4.0
$ 4.3
$ 4.5
$ 4.6
$ 4.7
$ 4.7
$ 4.7
$ 4.7
$ 4.7
$ 4.7
$ 4.6
$ 4.5
$ 4.4
$ 4.3
$ 74.6
$ 4.3
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 5.3
$ 12.9
$ 21.9
$ 32.0
$ 42.6
$ 53.6
$ 60.1
$ 64.6
$ 67.6
$ 69.7
$ 70.9
$ 71.6
$ 71.9
$ 71.8
$ 71.5
$ 70.9
$ 70.3
$ 69.5
$ 67.7
$ 66.7
$ 1,133.1
$ 65.1
Large Systems
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.4
$ 6.0
$ 10.5
$ 15.8
$ 20.5
$ 24.5
$ 27.7
$ 30.3
$ 32.3
$ 33.9
$ 35.0
$ 35.7
$ 36.3
$ 36.6
$ 36.8
$ 36.8
$ 36.7
$ 36.6
$ 35.9
$ 35.5
$ 565.6
$ 32.5
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.4
$ 0.9
$ 1.6
$ 2.4
$ 3.1
$ 3.7
$ 4.2
$ 4.6
$ 4.9
$ 5.2
$ 5.3
$ 5.4
$ 5.5
$ 5.6
$ 5.6
$ 5.6
$ 5.6
$ 5.5
$ 5.4
$ 5.4
$ 86.1
$ 4.9
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 5.4
$ 13.8
$ 24.2
$ 36.3
$ 47.1
$ 56.4
$ 63.7
$ 69.7
$ 74.5
$ 78.1
$ 80.7
$ 82.5
$ 83.9
$ 84.7
$ 85.1
$ 85.2
$ 85.1
$ 84.8
$ 83.2
$ 82.4
$ 1,306.6
$ 75.0
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.8
$ 4.2
$ 7.2
$ 10.4
$ 13.1
$ 15.2
$ 16.8
$ 18.2
$ 19.4
$ 20.4
$ 21.3
$ 22.1
$ 22.7
$ 23.3
$ 23.8
$ 24.2
$ 24.5
$ 24.7
$ 24.6
$ 24.7
$ 362.8
$ 20.8
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.3
$ 0.7
$ 1.1
$ 1.6
$ 2.0
$ 2.3
$ 2.6
$ 2.8
$ 3.0
$ 3.1
$ 3.2
$ 3.4
$ 3.5
$ 3.5
$ 3.6
$ 3.7
$ 3.7
$ 3.7
$ 3.7
$ 3.7
$ 55.2
$ 3.2
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 4.1
$ 9.8
$ 16.5
$ 24.0
$ 30.1
$ 35.0
$ 38.7
$ 42.0
$ 44.7
$ 47.2
$ 49.2
$ 51.0
$ 52.6
$ 53.9
$ 55.0
$ 55.9
$ 56.7
$ 57.4
$ 57.1
$ 57.3
$ 838.3
$ 48.1
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 4.0
$ 9.8
$ 16.7
$ 24.3
$ 30.3
$ 34.7
$ 37.6
$ 39.6
$ 40.9
$ 41.7
$ 42.2
$ 42.4
$ 42.4
$ 42.2
$ 41.9
$ 41.5
$ 41.0
$ 40.5
$ 39.4
$ 38.8
$ 692.0
$ 39.7
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.6
$ 1.5
$ 2.6
$ 3.7
$ 4.6
$ 5.3
$ 5.7
$ 6.0
$ 6.2
$ 6.4
$ 6.4
$ 6.4
$ 6.4
$ 6.4
$ 6.4
$ 6.3
$ 6.2
$ 6.1
$ 6.0
$ 5.9
$ 105.3
$ 6.0
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 9.2
$ 22.5
$ 38.3
$ 55.8
$ 69.7
$ 79.9
$ 86.5
$ 91.2
$ 94.3
$ 96.3
$ 97.5
$ 97.9
$ 98.0
$ 97.6
$ 97.0
$ 96.0
$ 95.0
$ 94.0
$ 91.5
$ 90.0
$ 1,598.1
$ 91.8
           Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005.
           Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate.
           Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
           Derived from Exhibits F.21k through F.21s.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
                                                                                                                                                                                           December 2005

-------
                    Exhibit F.21aa Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 7% Discount Rate, by Small & Large Size Categories
                                                                                         (Ground Water Systems)
  TTHM - Preferred Alternative, SWAT Method
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Total
Ann.
Small Systems
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.1
$ 2.7
$ 4.6
$ 6.7
$ 8.8
$ 11.0
$ 12.4
$ 13.3
$ 13.8
$ 14.1
$ 14.2
$ 14.1
$ 13.8
$ 13.4
$ 13.0
$ 12.6
$ 12.1
$ 11.6
$ 11.0
$ 10.5
$ 214.9
$ 18.4
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.4
$ 0.7
$ 1.0
$ 1.3
$ 1.7
$ 1.9
$ 2.0
$ 2.1
$ 2.2
$ 2.2
$ 2.1
$ 2.1
$ 2.0
$ 2.0
$ 1.9
$ 1.8
$ 1.8
$ 1.7
$ 1.6
$ 32.7
$ 2.8
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.6
$ 6.3
$ 10.6
$ 15.3
$ 20.3
$ 25.3
$ 28.4
$ 30.5
$ 31.8
$ 32.6
$ 32.7
$ 32.4
$ 31.9
$ 31.1
$ 30.2
$ 29.2
$ 28.1
$ 27.0
$ 25.5
$ 24.4
$ 496.2
$ 42.6
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.9
$ 1.9
$ 3.1
$ 4.4
$ 5.7
$ 7.0
$ 7.6
$ 8.1
$ 8.3
$ 8.5
$ 8.6
$ 8.6
$ 8.6
$ 8.5
$ 8.4
$ 8.2
$ 8.0
$ 7.8
$ 7.5
$ 7.2
$ 137.0
$ 11.8
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.1
$ 0.3
$ 0.5
$ 0.7
$ 0.9
$ 1.1
$ 1.2
$ 1.2
$ 1.3
$ 1.3
$ 1.3
$ 1.3
$ 1.3
$ 1.3
$ 1.3
$ 1.2
$ 1.2
$ 1.2
$ 1.1
$ 1.1
$ 20.8
$ 1.8
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.0
$ 4.5
$ 7.2
$ 10.1
$ 13.1
$ 16.1
$ 17.5
$ 18.6
$ 19.2
$ 19.7
$ 19.9
$ 19.9
$ 19.8
$ 19.6
$ 19.3
$ 19.0
$ 18.6
$ 18.1
$ 17.4
$ 16.8
$ 316.3
$ 27.1
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.9
$ 4.5
$ 7.3
$ 10.3
$ 13.2
$ 15.9
$ 17.2
$ 17.8
$ 17.9
$ 17.7
$ 17.4
$ 16.9
$ 16.3
$ 15.6
$ 15.0
$ 14.3
$ 13.6
$ 13.0
$ 12.2
$ 11.5
$ 269.2
$ 23.1
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.3
$ 0.7
$ 1.1
$ 1.6
$ 2.0
$ 2.4
$ 2.6
$ 2.7
$ 2.7
$ 2.7
$ 2.6
$ 2.6
$ 2.5
$ 2.4
$ 2.3
$ 2.2
$ 2.1
$ 2.0
$ 1.8
$ 1.7
$ 41.0
$ 3.5
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 4.4
$ 10.2
$ 16.8
$ 23.6
$ 30.3
$ 36.6
$ 39.5
$ 40.9
$ 41.2
$ 40.9
$ 40.1
$ 38.9
$ 37.6
$ 36.2
$ 34.7
$ 33.1
$ 31.6
$ 30.1
$ 28.2
$ 26.7
$ 621.4
$ 53.3
Large Systems
Smoking/Lung Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 2.0
$ 4.8
$ 8.1
$ 11.7
$ 14.5
$ 16.7
$ 18.2
$ 19.2
$ 19.7
$ 19.9
$ 19.7
$ 19.4
$ 19.0
$ 18.4
$ 17.8
$ 17.2
$ 16.5
$ 15.8
$ 14.9
$ 14.2
$ 307.7
$ 26.4
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.3
$ 0.7
$ 1.2
$ 1.8
$ 2.2
$ 2.6
$ 2.8
$ 2.9
$ 3.0
$ 3.0
$ 3.0
$ 3.0
$ 2.9
$ 2.8
$ 2.7
$ 2.6
$ 2.5
$ 2.4
$ 2.3
$ 2.2
$ 46.8
$ 4.0
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 4.5
$ 10.9
$ 18.5
$ 26.8
$ 33.4
$ 38.5
$ 41.9
$ 44.1
$ 45.4
$ 45.8
$ 45.6
$ 44.9
$ 43.9
$ 42.6
$ 41.3
$ 39.7
$ 38.2
$ 36.7
$ 34.6
$ 33.0
$ 710.4
$ 61.0
Smoking/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1.5
$ 3.4
$ 5.5
$ 7.7
$ 9.3
$ 10.4
$ 11.1
$ 11.5
$ 11.8
$ 12.0
$ 12.0
$ 12.0
$ 11.9
$ 11.7
$ 11.5
$ 11.3
$ 11.0
$ 10.7
$ 10.2
$ 9.9
$ 196.5
$ 16.9
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.2
$ 0.5
$ 0.8
$ 1.2
$ 1.4
$ 1.6
$ 1.7
$ 1.8
$ 1.8
$ 1.8
$ 1.8
$ 1.8
$ 1.8
$ 1.8
$ 1.8
$ 1.7
$ 1.7
$ 1.6
$ 1.6
$ 1.5
$ 29.9
$ 2.6
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 3.4
$ 7.8
$ 12.6
$ 17.7
$ 21.3
$ 23.9
$ 25.5
$ 26.6
$ 27.3
$ 27.7
$ 27.8
$ 27.7
$ 27.5
$ 27.2
$ 26.7
$ 26.1
$ 25.5
$ 24.8
$ 23.8
$ 23.0
$ 453.8
$ 38.9
Arsenic/Bladder Cancer
Cessation Lag Model
Mean
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$ 3.3
$ 7.8
$ 12.8
$ 17.9
$ 21.5
$ 23.7
$ 24.7
$ 25.1
$ 24.9
$ 24.5
$ 23.8
$ 23.0
$ 22.2
$ 21.3
$ 20.3
$ 19.4
$ 18.4
$ 17.5
$ 16.4
$ 15.5
$ 384.2
$ 33.0
90 Percent
Confidence Bound
Lower
(5th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 0.5
$ 1.2
$ 2.0
$ 2.7
$ 3.3
$ 3.6
$ 3.8
$ 3.8
$ 3.8
$ 3.7
$ 3.6
$ 3.5
$ 3.4
$ 3.2
$ 3.1
$ 2.9
$ 2.8
$ 2.7
$ 2.5
$ 2.4
$ 58.5
$ 5.0
Upper
(95th %tile)
$
$
$
$
$
$ 7.6
$ 17.9
$ 29.3
$ 41.2
$ 49.5
$ 54.6
$ 56.9
$ 57.7
$ 57.4
$ 56.5
$ 55.0
$ 53.2
$ 51.3
$ 49.2
$ 47.0
$ 44.8
$ 42.7
$ 40.7
$ 38.1
$ 36.1
$ 886.6
$ 76.1
           Present values in millions of 2003 dollars. Estimates are discounted to 2005.
           Ann. = value of total annualized at discount rate.
           Detail may not add exactly to totals due to independent rounding.
           Derived from Exhibits F.21k through F.21s.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
                                                                                                                                                                                           December 2005

-------
                                                                                        Exhibit F.21 ab  Mean Present Value of Benefits Yeariy Projections, WTP for Lymphoma as Basis for Non-Fatal Cases, at 3% Discount Rate, by System Size
                                                                                                                                                        (All Systems)
         TTHM - Preferred Alternative, SWAT Method
                                            Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model
                                                                                                                                                  Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model
                                           1,000-3,299  3,300-9,999
                                                               10,000-49,999 50,000-99,999
                                                                                                                                                   1,000-3,299 3,300-9,999 10,000-49,999   99,999     999,999
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                1,000-3,299   9,999
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             99,999     999,999
                                  $     3'
                                  $     3 f
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       $    5 1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       $    5 1
                                                                                                                                         $    2 I
                                                                                                                                         $    2 <
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBF/?
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              December2005

-------
                                                                                Exhibit F.21 ac Mean Present Value of Benefits Yearly Projectioi
                                                                                                                                         s, WTP for Lymphom
                                                                                                                                              (All Systems)
                                                                                                                                                                   is for Non-Fatal Cases, at 7% Discount Rate, by System Size
     TTHM - Preferred Alternative, SWAT Method
Smoking/Lung Cancer Cessation Lag Model
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Ann.
<100
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ 00
$ 00
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 02
$ 02
$ 02
$ 02
$ 02
$ 02
$ 02
$ 02
$ 02
$ 02
$ 02
$ 02
$ 02
$ 02
$ 02
S 0.3
100-499
S
$
$
S
$ 0 1
$ 04
S 09
$ 1 2
$ 1 4
$ 1 6
S 1 7
$ 1 B
$ 19
S 1 B
$ 18
$ 1 B
$ 1 7
S 1 6
$ 1 6
$ 1 5
$ 1 4

500-999
$
$
$
$
$ 02
$ 04
$ 1 1
$ 1 4
$ 1 8
$ 20
$ 2 1
$ 22
$ 23
$ 23
$ 22
$ 22
$ 22
$ 2 1
$ 20
$ 1 9
$ 1 9
$ 1 7

1,000-3,299
$
$
$
$
$ 07
$ 1 7
$ 4 1
$ 54
$ 68
$ 76
$ 87
$ 87
$ 86
$ 85
$ 83
$ 80
$ 77
$ 74
$ 7 1
$ 64

3,300-9,999
$
$
S
$
$ 1 7
$ 4 1
$ 100
$ 132
$ 164
$ 185
$ 198
$ 206
$ 21 1
$ 21 2
$ 21 0
$ 206
$ 20 1
$ 195
$ 188
$ 181
$ 174
$ 157

10,000-49,999
S
$
$
S
$ 78
$ 189
S 463
$ 61 5
$ 740
$ 823
S 879
$ 91 5
$ 932
$ 934
S 923
$ 905
$ 881
$ 853
S 823
$ 792
$ 759
$ 684

50,000-99,999
$
$
$
$
S
$ 65
$ 157
$ 385
$ 485
$ 552
$ 60 1
$ 633
$ 652
$ 657
$ 653
$ 642
$ 627
$ 608
$ 588
$ 566
$ 543
$ 520
$ 468

100,000-
999599
$
$
$
$
$
$ 283
$ 684
$ 1673
$ 1996
$ 2237
$ 241 1
$ 2524
$ 2580
$ 2586
$ 2559
$ 251 0
$ 2445
$ 2370
$ 2287
$ 2200
$ 211 1
$ 2021
« ,B,S

>1, 000,000
$
$
$
$
$
$ 235
$ 96 1
$ 139 1
$ 1659
S 1859
$ 2004
$ 2099
$ 2145
S 2150
$ 2128
$ 2087
$ 2033
S 1970
$ 1902
$ 1829
$ 1755
$ 1585
$ 1509

Total
$
$
$
$
$
$ 688
$ 1665
$ 281 5
$ 4073
$ 4967
$ 5655
$ 6137
$ 6455
$ 6625
$ 6666
$ 661 6
$ 650 1
$ 6343
$ 6154
$ 5944
$ 5723
$ 5494
$ 5262
« m.

Smoking/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model
<100
S -
$ -
S -
$ 00
$ 00
$ 0 1
S 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
S 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
S 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
S 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 0 1
$ 0 1

100-499
$
S
$
$ 0 1
$ 03
$ 04
$ 06
$ 07
$ 09
$ 1 0
$ 1 1
$ 1 1
$ 1 1
$ 1 1
$ 1 1
$ 1 1
$ 1 1
$ 1 1
$ 1 1
$ 1 0
$ 1 0
$ 09

500-999
$
$
$
$ 0 1
$ 03
$ 05
S 07
$ 09
$ 1 1
$ 1 2
S 1 3
$ 1 3
$ 1 4
$ 1 4
S 1 4
$ 1 4
$ 1 4
$ 1 3
S 1 3
$ 1 3
$ 1 2
$ 1 2

1,000-3,299
$
S
$
$ 05
$ 1 2
$ 27
$ 35
$ 43
$ 47
$ 49
$ 5 1
$ 52
$ 53
$ 53
$ 53
$ 52
$ 5 1
$ 50
$ 49
$ 48


3,300-9,999
S
$
S
$ 1 3
S 29
$ 47
$ 66
$ 85
S 104
$ 114
$ 120
$ 125
S 127
$ 129
$ 129
$ 128
S 127
$ 125
$ 122
$ 120
S 117
« ,BB

10,000-
49599
$
$
$
$
$ 70
$ 156
$ 249
$ 346
$ 443
$ 51 2
$ 546
$ 568
$ 587
$ 588
$ 585
$ 578
$ 568
$ 55 7
$ 544
$ 529
$ 514


50,000-99,999
$
$
$
$
$ 59
$ 130
$ 208
$ 289
$ 346
$ 375
$ 3B4
$ 41 1
$ 41 3
$ 41 2
$ 408
$ 402
$ 395
$ 386
$ 376
$ 366
$ 354


100,000-
999599
$
$
$
$
$
$ 255
$ 5BB
$ 1259
$ 1408
$ 1504
$ 1567
$ 1622
$ 1625
$ 161 7
$ 1599
$ 1574
$ 1543
$ 1507
$ 1467
$ 1425
$ 1381
« ,2BB

> 1,000 ,000
$
$
$
$
$
$ 21 3
$ 474
$ 1050
$ 1173
$ 1253
$ 1305
$ 1350
$ 1353
$ 1346
$ 1331
$ 131 0
$ 1283
$ 1253
$ 1220
$ 1185
$ ,,4B


Total
$
$
$
$
$
$ 61 B
S 1375
$ 3051
$ 3508
S 381 3
$ 3995
$ 4107
$ 4166
S 4185
$ 4171
$ 4131
$ 4071
$ 3994
$ 3905
$ 3806
$ 3699
$ 35BB


Arsenic/Bladder Cancer Cessation Lag Model
<100
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ 00
$ 0 1
$ 02
$ 02
$ 03
$ 03
$ 03
$ 03
$ 03
$ 03
$ 03
$ 03
$ 03
$ 03
$ 02
$ 02
$ 02


100-499
S
$
$
$
$
$ 02
$ 06
S 1 3
$ 1 7
$ 2 1
$ 22
S 23
$ 23
$ 23
$ 23
S 22
$ 2 1
$ 20
$ 20
S 1 9
$ 18
$ 1 7


500-999
$
$
$
$
$
$ 03
$ 07
$ 16
$ 2 1
$ 26
$ 28
$ 28
$ 28
$ 27
$ 26
$ 25
$ 24
$ 23
$ 22
$ 2 1

1,000-3,299
$
$
$
$
$
$ 1 2
$ 27
$ 63
$ 81
$ 98
$ 105
$ 109
$ 110
$ 109
$ 106
$ 103
$ 100
$ 96
$ 92
$ 88
$ 84
$ 80
$ 75
$ 7 1

3,300-9,999
$
$
$
$
S
$ 28
$ 66
$ 153
$ 197
$ 238
$ 257
$ 265
$ 267
$ 265
$ 259
$ 252
$ 243
$ 234
$ 224
$ 214
$ 204
$ 194
$ 172

10,000-
49599
$
$
$
$
$
$ 142
$ 328
$ 739
$ 942
$ 1082
$ 1141
$ 1163
$ 1162
$ 1145
$ 1117
$ 1082
$ 1043
$ 1002
$ 959
$ 91 5
$ 872
$ 830
$ 779
$ 738

50,000-99,999
$
$
$
$
S
$ 119
$ 273
$ 61 5
$ 736
$ 79 1
$ 81 9
$ 794
$ 77 1
$ 745
$ 71 6
$ 686
$ 656
$ 626
$ 596
$ 53 1
$ 503

100,000-
999599
$
$
$
$
$
$ 51 7
$ 1189
$ 2676
$ 2998
$ 3160
$ 3223
$ 3221
$ 3175
$ 3099
$ 3004
$ 2897
$ 2782
$ 2664
$ 2544
$ 2425
$ 2308
$ 2194
$ 2057
$ 1947

>1, 000,000
$
$
S
$
$
$ 430
S 990
$ 2226
$ 2493
S 2627
$ 2679
$ 2677
$ 2639
S 2576
$ 2497
$ 2408
$ 231 2
S 2214
$ 211 5
$ 201 6
$ 191 9
S 1824
$ 1709
$ 161 8

Total
S
$
$
$
$
$ 1254
$ 2BBB
S 6504
$ 7487
$ 8044
$ 8273
S 8309
$ 8041
$ 7808
S 7539
$ 7247
$ 6943
$ 6635
S 6327
$ 6024
$ 5727
$ 5369
$ 5083

                             of 2003 dollars Estimat
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          December 2005

-------
                Appendix G
Illustrative Calculation for Quantifying Potential
  Reproductive/Developmental Benefits of the
               Stage 2 DBPR

-------

-------
                                        Appendix G
                  Illustrative Calculation for Quantifying Potential
            Reproductive/Developmental Benefits of the Stage 2 DBPR

G.I   Introduction and Purpose

       The purpose of this Appendix is to support Section 6.8.1 by providing details for an illustrative
calculation that quantifies the potential benefits of reduced fetal losses (miscarriage and stillbirth) which
may be attributable to the reduction in elevated disinfection byproduct (DBF) levels resulting from the
Stage 2 Disinfection Byproduct Rule (DBPR).  Human epidemiology studies and animal toxicology
studies have examined associations between chlorinated drinking water or DBFs and reproductive and
developmental health effects. Based on an evaluation of the available science, EPA believes the data
suggest that exposure to DBFs is a potential reproductive and developmental health hazard.

       Fetal loss was chosen from the reported reproductive and developmental health endpoints
(including neural tube defects, low birth weight, cardiovascular effects, intrauterine growth retardation
and cleft palate, etc.) because there are relatively more epidemiological data for it in comparison to the
other endpoints and evidence is suggestive of an association between fetal loss and chlorinated water or
DBF exposure.  In addition,  fetal loss occurs frequently in the United States, where approximately 1 in 6
of the 6 million pregnancies each year results in a fetal loss (Ventura et al. 2000).  Consequently, even a
small  risk attributable to DBFs (e.g., 0.1 percent) may represent many fetal losses (n=l,000) and any
reduction in fetal loss due to the Stage 2 DBPR would represent a significant benefit.

       The existing epidemiological studies for fetal loss endpoints remain inconsistent as a whole, and
the  science on these effects as a result of DBF exposure is not strong enough to establish a causal
relationship or quantify risk  or benefits in the primary analysis. Nevertheless, given the widespread
nature of exposure to DBFs, the importance our society places on reproductive and developmental health,
and the large number of fetal losses experienced each year in the US, the Agency believes that it is
important to provide some quantitative indication of the potential risk suggested by some of the published
results on reproductive and developmental endpoints, despite the absence of a demonstrated causal link
between disinfection byproducts and these risks.

       Section G.2 describes the derivation of potential Population Attributable Risk (PAR) values
relating fetal losses to DBP exposure. Section G.3 presents the calculation of potential fetal losses
avoided as a result of the Stage 2 DBPR. Assumptions and uncertainties in these  calculations are
summarized in Section G.4.
G.2   Derivation of Illustrative PARs from Four Epidemiological Studies

       Fetal losses potentially attributable to DBFs in drinking water were estimated using the PAR
approach, similar to the approach used to quantify benefits associated with reduced incidence of bladder
cancer cases in the main benefits analysis.  PAR is the fraction of a disease that occurs in the population
that is attributable to some specified risk factor. By extension, it also implies the fraction of that disease
that would be eliminated from the population if the specified risk factor was eliminated.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR        G-l                                 December 2005

-------
        To derive the PAR estimate, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) evaluated four
published population-based human epidemiological studies:

               Savitz et al. 2005
               Waller etal. 2001
               King et al. 2000a
               Savitz etal. 1995

Exhibit G. 1 summarizes the key characteristics of these studies. All four are considered high quality
studies as they conform to the following criteria: 1) population-based-case-control or cohort study that
ascertained exposure to chlorinated surface water (a chloramine residual disinfectant was used in the
distribution system in two of the three study populations from Savitz et al. 2005), 2) high quality, well-
designed study that had sufficient sample size, high response rate1, and adjusted for known confounding
factors, and 3) exposure assessment using information from water treatment data, residential histories, and
trihalomethane (THM)  measurement data. These are the same criteria used to select the bladder cancer
studies for the primary benefits analysis for both Stage 1 and Stage 2 DBPR.
        1 Note: The Savitz et al. 1995 study had a response rate of 62 percent for miscarriage cases which is not
unexpected due to the highly sensitive nature of this event.

Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR        G-2                                  December 2005

-------
Exhibit G.1 Summary of the Fetal Loss Human Epidemiological Studies
Study
Waller et al.
2001
King et al.
2000a
Savitz et al.
1995
Savitz et al.
2005
Type of Study and
Population
Prospective cohort
of 4,209 pregnant
women in prepaid
health plan in CA
1989-91
Population-based
retrospective cohort
of 47,275 births in
Nova Scotia,
Canada 1988-1995
Population-based
case-control study
of 126 cases and
122 controls in NC
1988-91
Prospective cohort
of 2413 pregnant
women from 3
water systems in
the U.S., 2000-
2004
Exposure Assessment
Used utility total
trihalomethane (TTHM) data
to estimate exposure via
ingestion and showering
during first trimester of
pregnancy.
Linked mother's residence at
time of delivery to the levels of
specific TTHMs monitored in
the distribution system of the
utility and averaged predicted
values of TTHM levels for all
the months covering the
pregnancy.
Linked existing distribution
system TTHM concentration
data to maternal residence
and water consumption data.
Fourth week of pregnancy
used to assign the reported
quarterly average TTHM.
Weekly or biweekly
distribution system DBP
concentration data were
collected and linked with
maternal residence and water
consumption data (during first
and second trimesters).
Periconceptual, early and late
gestational exposure windows
were examined.
Outcome
Spontaneous
abortion
(< 20 weeks
of gestation)
Stillbirth
Spontaneous
abortion
Spontaneous
abortion,
including early
(<12 wks) and
late(>=12
wks) fetal
losses
Potential Confounders
Evaluated
Gestational age at interview,
maternal age, cigarette
smoking, history of
pregnancy loss, maternal
race, employment during
pregnancy
Smoking, maternal age
Maternal age, race,
education, marital status,
poverty level, smoking,
alcohol use, nausea,
employment
Maternal age, tobacco use,
race, ethnicity, education,
marital status, income,
alcohol use, caffeine
consumption, body mass
index, age at menarche,
employment, diabetes,
pregnancy history, prior fetal
loss, induced abortion
history, vitamin use
The PARs were derived using the Relative Risk (RR) measures such as the odds ratio and risk
ratios from the four studies. To determine the fraction of cases within the exposed population that would
be attributable to a specific exposure (i.e., PAR value), the proportion of exposed cases can be derived
from either the study population or national occurrence information. To calculate a PAR value as a
percent using the study-exposed fraction, Equation G. 1 would be used. Equation G.2, which is
mathematically equivalent to Equation G.I, would be used when adjusting the exposed fraction using the
national occurrence data. RR refers to the relative risk estimates, Pc refers to the prevalence of exposure
in the cases (the total number of exposed cases/total number of cases), and Pe refers to the fraction of the
population that is exposed.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
G-3
December 2005

-------
[
[Pex(RR-l)]+l
(EquationG.l)
G-2>
It is common practice to use the study population-derived exposed fraction of cases to calculate
the PAR estimate (Equation G. 1) by making the assumption that the study populations are representative
of the general U.S. population. However, analysis of the 1998 Information Collection Rule (ICR)
occurrence data show that study populations have higher DBF exposures than the general U.S.
population. National DBF exposure estimates are compared to study population exposures in Section
G.2. 1 . Section G.2.2 follows with a detailed derivation of PAR using Equation G.2 (adjusted to be more
representative of national exposure levels).

G.2.1 DBF Exposure for Study Populations Compared to National Data

Section 5.6 provides a basis for why ICR data can be used to represent national exposure to
DBFs. Below is a discussion of how EPA compared the ICR data to the exposure characterizations of the
four epidemiology studies. The data are presented in a different manner than in 5 .6.2 to reflect the
specific methodologies used in the epidemiological studies to characterize exposure.

Summary of exposure characterizations from epidemiological studies

The four epidemiological studies used in this analysis differ in geographic location, health
endpoint definitions, study type, and exposure classification. Major features of the studies are
summarized in Exhibit G. 1 . Subjects from the four studies were assigned exposure scores based on
distribution system THM concentrations and grouped into exposure categories. The most relevant
categorizations were those most closely related to the Stage 2 DBPR maximum contaminant level (MCL)
of 80 micrograms per liter (|-ig/L). Exhibits G.2 and G.3 presents the study data that are used to assess
representativeness of national exposure in this appendix.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR G-4 December 2005

-------
Exhibit G.2 DBF Exposure Data for Cohort Studies
(Waller et al. 2001, King et al. 2000a, and Savitz et al. 2005)
Study
Waller et al.
2001,
Table 2
King et al.
2000a,
Table 3
Savitz et al.
2005 4
Exposure
1st Trimester Mean TTHM > 80 • g/L
1st Trimester Mean TTHM < 80 u.g/L
Pregnancy Mean TTHM > 75 • g/L
Pregnancy Mean TTHM < 75 • g/L
1st Trimester Mean TTHM > 75 • g/L
1st Trimester Mean TTHM < 75 • g/L
Cases
74
322
75
122
45
210
Non-Cases
578
3,238
15,0002
32,000
376
1681
Percent of
Population
15.5%'
84.5%
32% 3
68%
18.2%
81 .8%
Notes:
1. As derived from original study data: (488+164)/(488+164+488+1139+715+654+564) =652/(652+3560)=15.5
percent
2. Non-cases were back-calculated from information provided in the paper. Total subjects at an exposure level was
estimated by dividing the number of cases by the "Rate" from Table 3 of King et al., which is the ratio of cases to
subjects. Non-cases equals the difference between total subjects and cases. Estimates above are shown to two
significant figures because the Rates were only given to two significant figures.
3. As derived from original study data: (31+44+7350+7813)/(31+44+7350+7813+43+79+12987+18730)=
15,258/(15,258+31,840)=32.4 percent. Estimates are shown to two significant figures.
4. Personal communication, Richard MacLehose (University of North Carolina). Study population used in the
analysis was similar to the exclusion criteria used in Waller et al. 1998.
Exhibit G.3 DBF Exposure Data for Savitz et al. (1995) Case-Control Study
Study
Savitz et al.
1995,
Table 2
Exposure
1st Trimester Mean TTHM >
81 »g/L
1st Trimester Mean TTHM <
81 'g/L
Cases
46
80
Controls
43
79
Percent of Population 1
35.2% 2
64.8%
Notes:
1. For case-control studies, the distribution of population exposure is most appropriately represented by the control
group only.
2. 43/(43+79) = 35.2 percent
Comparison of exposure between ICR data and study populations

EPA derived national exposure estimates based on the ICR data using the exposure study
definitions by Waller et al. 2001, Savitz et al. 1995, King et al. 2000b, and Savitz et al. 2005. For the
Waller et al. study, EPA used the first trimester utility wide average, rather than the closest-site estimate,
as only this definition could be applied to the ICR data. This decision is supported by data from Waller et
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
G-5
December 2005

-------
al. 2001 indicating that there was little difference between the exposure estimates derived from the utility-
wide average versus the closest-site estimates. In analyzing the ICR data for purpose of exposure
comparison with the Waller et al. study, EPA considered the plants having data from at least three
distribution system locations with at least three valid results for both total trihalomethanes (TTHM) and
haloacetic acid (HAAS) during 1998, the final year of the ICR survey (i.e., ICR quarters 3, 4, 5, and 6).
Among these plants, 336 of the 4,482 observations (7.5 percent) were greater than 80 u,g/L, and therefore
are categorized as high-exposure per Waller et al. The Savitz et al. 1995 and Savitz et al. 2005 studies
also used utility wide averages as the basis for the first trimester exposure estimates. However, the Savitz
et al. 1995 paper used 81 u.g/L as their study population reference point. Since it is very close to 80 u.g/L,
EPA assumed the same percent observations as for Waller et al. Thus, the 7.5 percent exposure estimate
for 80 u,g/L is used to estimate the PAR value for the Savitz et al. 1995 study. To estimate the PAR value
for the Savitz et al. 2005 study, EPA used the study's reference THM concentration of 75 u,g/L since
adjusted ORs for that concentration pertained to the first trimester calculation. The ICR data indicated
that 399 of the 4,482 observations (8.9 percent) were greater than 75 u.g/L. The basis for these
calculations is shown in Section G.3.1

For the King et al. study, exposure was estimated by averaging predicted TTHM values for the
months covering the duration of the mother's pregnancy and using 75 |J.g/L as the exposure concentration
for comparisons. To relate the King et al. exposure estimate to the ICR data, EPA calculated locational
nine month running averages based on 3 consecutive quarters of the ICR data. Each ICR plant location
provided three or four nine-month running averages, taking quarters (3,4,5), (4,5,6), (5,6,3), or (6,3,4).
Of the 3,679 location-nine-month averages from the ICR data, 222 (6.0 percent) exceeded 75 u.g/L, and
therefore are categorized as high-exposure per the King et al. study. See Section G.3.1 for these
calculations.

Exhibit G.4 compares DBP exposures for the studies and ICR data using the study exposure
definitions. The fraction of cases among the study population experiencing TTHM occurrences over 80
ug/L (current TTHM MCL) is 15 percent to 35 percent for Waller et al. and Savitz et al. 1995
respectively, while the fraction of cases over 75 ug/L is 32 percent for the King et al. study and 18
percent for the Savitz et al. 2005 study. National ICR DBP occurrence data indicate that approximately
7.5 percent of the U.S. population are potentially exposed to TTHM levels higher than the current MCL
of 80 ug/L during any of the four quarters during the last 12 months of the ICR.
Exhibit G.4: Comparison of DBP Exposures:
Fractions Exposed in Epidemiologic Studies and ICR Populations
Data Source
Study Population
ICR Population
Waller et al.
(1st trimester
> 80 • g/L)
15.5%
7.5%
Savitz etal. 1995
(1st trimester
> 81 • g/L)
35.2%
7.5%
King et al.
(pregnancy mean
> 75 • g/L)
32.4%
6.0%
Savitz et al. 2005
(1st trimester > 75
•9/L)
18.2%1
8.9%
Notes:
1. Personal communication, Richard MacLehose (University of North Carolina) (MacLehose 2005).
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
G-6
December 2005

-------
G.2.2 PAR Results Using OR or RR and Scaling to National Exposure

PAR estimates were derived using risk estimates and odds ratios calculated from the studies
(summarized in Exhibit G.5). Each study assigned pregnancies to multiple exposure categories, but the
exposure category closest to the Stage 2 DBP TTHM MCL (80 (ig/L) was used to calculate crude odds
ratio and risk ratios. For the Waller et al. 2001 and Savitz et al. 1995 studies, persons with exposure to
greater than or equal to 80 (ig/L and 81 (ig/L, respectively, were defined as "exposed." For the King et al.
2000 and Savitz et al. 2005 studies, the cut-off was established at 75 (ig/L. In addition, to make the
results from the Waller et al. 2001 study comparable to the other studies, the utility-wide, unweighted
average TTHM concentrations were used. Individual water consumption data were not considered since
these data were not collected in all of the studies under consideration. For this analysis, crude odds ratios
and risk ratios were used because it was not possible to calculate relative risk estimates adjusted for the
same confounders from the four studies. Regardless, when comparisons were made between crude and
adjusted values, studies did not find a significant difference between the two estimates (e.g., King et al.
2000 and Savitz et al. 2005).

The crude odds and risk ratios were calculated from the reported number of cases and non-cases
(or controls) at high and low exposure levels, except for the Savitz et al. 2005 study (which reported the
odds ratio needed). The data summarized in Exhibit G.2 were used to derive the risk ratio. An example
calculation using the Waller et al. cohort study follows:

a = cases among those exposed at the higher level = 74
b = cases among those exposed at the lower level = 322
c = non-cases among those exposed at the higher level = 578
d = non-cases among those exposed at the lower level = 3238
RR = risk ratio in equation G.3 and G.4.
a + c b (Equation G.3)
This estimate was then used to derive a PAR, given the ICR-based estimate of fraction exposed at
the higher level, ICR_pe = 7.5%:

(RR- l)-ICR_pe
PARTrR = = 0.0188 (Eauation G 4)
1CR (RR - l)-ICR_pe + 1 liquation u.4;

Calculations for the Savitz et al. 1995 case-control study were similar, but based on odds ratio
rather than risk ratio:

a = cases exposed at the higher level
b = cases exposed at the lower level
c = controls exposed at the higher level
d = controls exposed at the lower level
OR = odds ratio

OR=-.- (Equation G.5)
c b

Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR G-7 December 2005

-------
Confidence intervals for risk and odds ratios are based on likelihood functions (likelihood of the
data, as a function of risk ratio or odds ratio). The 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of the cumulative
likelihood functions defined the 95% confidence intervals. In all four studies, the lower confidence
bounds around the relative risk measures were less than 1.0, so the confidence bounds from the
corresponding ICR-based PAR estimates included some values less than zero (which indicate that there
maybe no risk).
Exhibit G.5 RR, OR, and PAR Estimates for Four Epidemiological Studies
Study
Waller et al.
2001
Savitz et al.
1995
Savitz et al.
2005
King et al.
2000a
Crude Relative Risk Estimates 2
Odds Ratio/
Risk Ratio
RR = 1 .25
OR = 1 .06
OR = 0.96 5
RR = 1 .28
95% Confidence
Interval
(1.0, 1.6)
(0.6, 1.8)
(0.68, 1.35)5
(1.0, 1.7)
Attributable Risk Estimates 3
PAR
1 .9 %
0.4 %
0%
1 .7 %
95% Confidence
Interval
(0, 4) %
(-3, 6) % 4
(-3, 3) % 4
(0, 4) %
Notes:
1. Estimates slightly differ from those of the Stage 2 Proposal because of minor adjustments to calculations and use
of the new population exposure fractions shown in Exhibit G.4 and discussed in Section 5.6
2. With the exception of the Savitz et al. 2005 study which reported the appropriate OR and 95% confidence interval,
crude odds ratios were calculated by EPA for high exposure levels as described in Section G.2.2
3. Based on Equation G.2: % PAR = 100% * (Pe)* (RR-1) / [(RR-1)* Pe + 1] where Pe is the fraction of the exposed
population and RR is Risk Ratio or Odds Ratio
4. Lower confidence bounds below zero indicate that there may be no risk
5. Savitz et al. 2005, Table 6.1, page 75
G.3 Estimate of Potential Annual Fetal Losses Avoided as a Result of the Stage 2 DBPR

Three of the four epidemiological studies used for the PAR analysis covered exposure periods
that occurred between 1988 and 1995, before implementation of the Stage 1 DBPR. The fourth study
(Savitz et al. 2005) covered the period 2000 to 2004. Therefore, to calculate the number of fetal losses
avoided for Stage 2, EPA calculated the potential losses avoided for Stage 1 first, then estimate the
percent of remaining post-Stage 1 cases that could potentially avoided as a consequence of the Stage 2
DBPR

To estimate the percent reduction in peak exposure, EPA used the ICR Matrix Method to estimate
the fraction peak TTHM observations for pre-Stage 1, pre-Stage 2 (post-Stage 1), and post-Stage 2
scenarios1. Because developmental and reproductive health data described in section 6.2 does not
conclusively identify an exposure level of concern, several possible TTHM study levels (including
concentrations of 80 and 75 |_ig/L to correlate with the available epidemiological study reference points)
that EPA uses a 20% safety margin in the compliance forecast analysis for this illustrative
calculation. By not incorporating the uncertainty in the impacts of the initial distribution system evaluation (IDSE),
the results of this illustrative analysis are potentially biased downward.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
G-8
December 2005

-------
were evaluated. From these fractions, the percent reduction in peak exposures attributed to the Stage 2
DBPR can be calculated. Section G.3.2 shows the derivation of these estimates

Section G.3.2 shows the derivation of fetal losses avoided as a result of the Stage 2 DBPR for a
PAR value of 1.9 percent from the Waller et al. study, which represents the top value in the range. The
same steps can be used to derive the results for the other fetal loss estimates. Results show that an
approximate range of 0 to 3,700 fetal losses could potentially be avoided per year as a result of the Stage
2 DBPR. Section G.4 provides discussion of the assumptions and uncertainties for the derivation of
potential fetal losses avoided as a result of the Stage 2 DBPR.

G.3.1 Reduction in Exposure to Peaks

This section summarizes the analysis of the reduced frequency of peak TTHM and HAAS
occurrences as a result of the Stage 1 and Stage 2 for observations and three-quarter averages. See
section 5.6.1 for more details on the ICR Matrix Method approach for the reduction in peak values.

Characterization of peak TTHM and HAAS levels for plants in each bin is shown in the tables on
the right-hand side of Exhibits G.6a for observations and G.6b for three-quarter averages. The first
column shows the total number of locations in the bin. Subsequent columns show the percent of the
TTHM observations above study levels of 60, 75, 80, and 100 (ig/L followed by the percent of HAAS
observations above 45, 60, and 75 (ig/L. The subsequent columns for three-quarter averages show the
number of three-quarter averages greater than 75 (ig/L. Shaded rows represent those sampling locations
associated with non-compliant plants that are expected to make treatment technology changes to meet
Stage 1, then Stage 2 compliance.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR G-9 December 2005

-------
   Exhibit G.6a ICR Matrix Method for Peak Observations for the Stage 2 DBPR, 20 Percent Safety Margin, Large
                                               Surface and Ground Water Plants
                                                              P re-Stage 1
Bin
A1
A2
B2
All Plants
Number of
Observations
3,212
555
715
4,482
Observations with
TTHM >60 ug/L
159
169
387
715
Observations with
TTHM >75 ug/L
33
87
279
399
Observations with
TTHM >80 ug/L
21
69
246
336
Observations with
TTHM >100 ug/L
4
18
119
141
Observations with
HAAS >45 ug/L
98
132
345
575
Observations with
HAAS >60 ug/L
13
37
217
267
Observations with
HAAS >75 ug/L
3
9
127
139
                                                              P re-Stage 2
Bin
A1
A2
m :
All Plants
Number of
Observations
3,212
555
7/I5
4,482
Observations with
TTHM >60 ug/L
159
169
48
377
Observations with
TTHM >75 ug/L
33
87
5
125
Observations with
TTHM >80 ug/L
21
69
/
91
Observations with
TTHM >100 ug/L
4
18
0
22
Observations with
HAAS >45 ug/L
98
132
28
256
Observations with
HAAS >60 ug/L
13
37
2
52
Observations with
HAAS >75 ug/L
3
9
0
12
                                                             Post-Stage 2
Bin
A1
/./
BZ :
All Plants
Number of
Observations
3,212
,,555 .'
^15 -
4,482
Observations with
TTHM >60 ug/L
159
,-'
,,48
246
Observations with
TTHM >75 ug/L
33
// /
J5
42
Observations with
TTHM >80 ug/L
21
X1
,'1
23
Observations with
TTHM >100 ug/L
4
8
.,o
4
Observations with
HAAS >45 ug/L
98
^0
^
144
Observations with
HAAS >60 ug/L
13
/*
^
17
Observations with
HAAS >75 ug/L
3
Q
,-•
/B
3
Notes:   1) In the Pre-Stage 1 tables, A1 through B2 are the number of locations for ICR plants that meet the criteria for each bin under pre-Stage 1 conditions. A
        total of 4,482 observations for 311 screened ICR surface and ground water plants were evaluated.
        2) Each cell (bin) represents a range of the TTHM and HAAS RAA concentrations and Maximum LRAA concentrations in • g/L (i.e., RAA <64/48 means
        the plant needs to have its TTHM RAA level below 64 ug/L and its HAAS RAA level below 48 ug/L to be placed into the bin).  The maximum TTHM or
        HAAS result determines the bin placement.  Note that bins are based on a 20 percent safety margin on the Stage 1 and Stage 2 MCLs.
        3) Crossed-out bins represent plants that have moved from  out of compliance  bins to in compliance bins.
        4) The gray bins on the right-hand side represents bins that have moved into compliance with pre-Stage 2 and post-Stage 2.  The percent observations
        with TTHM and HAAS concentrations above each study level is the percent of observations above the study level for those ICR plants that are compliant
        with Stage 1 and Stage 2 and use an advanced treatment technology and/or chloramines (as shown in Exhibit 5.26).
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
G-10
December 2005

-------
 Exhibit G.6b  ICR Matrix Method for Three-Quarter Averages Greater than 75 ug/L
for the Stage 2 DBPR, 20 Percent Safety Margin, Large Surface and Ground Water
                                              Plants
            	Pre-Stage 1
              Max
             LRAA
                  <64/48
>= 64/48
(S2 non-
compliant)
                                   RAA
                            <64/48
                 >=64/48 (S1 non
                   compliant)
                             A1
                             A2
                                        B2
Bin
A1
A2
B2
All Plants
Number of
Terms
2,648
433
598
3,679
Pregnancy Terms with
mean TTHM >75 ug/L
0
28
194
222
                                           Pre-Stage 2
              Max
             LRAA
                  <64/48
>= 64/48
(S2 non-
compliant)
                                   RAA
                            <64/48
                 >=64/48 (S1 non
                   compliant)
                            A1+B2
                             A2
                                           Post-Stage 2
              Max
             LRAA
                  <64/48
>= 64/48
(S2 non-
compliant)
                                   RAA
                            <64/48
                 =64/48 (S1 non
                   compliant)
                           A1+B2+A2
Bin
A1
A2
,-'B? -
All Plants
Number of
Terms
2,648
433
,8f§ '
3,679
Pregnancy Terms with
mean TTHM >75 ug/L
0
28
,P
28
Bin
A1
/"
Bf '
All Plants
Number of
Terms
2,648
433
5|8
3,679
Pregnancy Terms with
mean TTHM >75 ug/L
0
Q
0
0
Notes:   1) In the Pre-Stage 1 tables, A1 through B2 are the number of three-quarter averages for ICR plants that
        meet the criteria for each bin under pre-Stage 1 conditions.  A total of 3,679 three-quarter terms for 311
        screened ICR surface and ground water plants were evaluated.
        2) Each cell (bin) represents a range of the TTHM and HAAS RAA concentrations and Maximum LRAA
        concentrations in • g/L (i.e., RAA <64/48 means the plant needs to have its TTHM RAA level below 64 ug/L
        and its HAAS RAA level below 48 ug/L to be placed into the bin).  The maximum TTHM or HAAS result
        determines the bin placement. Note that bins are based on a 20 percent safety margin  on the Stage 1 and
        Stage 2 MCLs.
        3) Crossed-out bins represent plants that have moved from out of compliance bins to in compliance bins.
        4) The gray bins on the right-hand side represents bins that have  moved  into compliance with pre-Stage 2
        and post-Stage 2. The percent three-quarter averages with TTHM and HAAS concentrations above each
        study level is the percent of three-quarter averages above the study level for those ICR  plants that are
        compliant with Stage 1 and Stage 2 and use an advanced treatment technology and/or  chloramines (as
        shown in Exhibit 5.26).
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
                             G-ll
December 2005

-------
       Similar to the method explained in Section 5.6.1, EPA used information on the occurrence of
peaks for ICR plants using advanced treatment technologies and/or chloramines at the time of the ICR to
estimate the occurrence of peaks for plants predicted to change treatment technology to comply with the
Stage 1 and Stage 2 DBPRs.  The results of the analysis of TTHM and HAAS peaks for this subset of
plants is summarized in Exhibits G.7a and G.7b. The frequency of peak TTHM and HAAS  observations
in Exhibits G.7a are assumed to represent the frequency of peak TTHM and HAAS observations for
plants that will make treatment technology changes to meet the Stage 1 and Stage 2 rules (identified as
shaded rows for the pre-Stage 2 and post-Stage 2 tables in Exhibits G.6a and G.6b).  A similar analysis
was used to determine the frequency of three-quarter averages greater than 75 (ig/L in Exhibit G.7b.

       Exhibits G.8a and G.8b summarize the results for each TTHM study level for observations and
three-quarter averages. Using the ICR Matrix Method approach, the predicted percent of peak
observations declines from 7.5 percent for pre-Stage 1 to  2.0 percent for pre-Stage 2 to 0.5 percent for
post-Stage 2 DBPR conditions at a TTHM study level of 80 |_ig/L. For three-quarter averages greater
than 75 |J-g/L, the percentage declines from 6.0 percent for pre-Stage 1 to 0.8 percent for pre-Stage 2 to 0
percent for post-Stage 2 DBPR conditions.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR        G-12                                December 2005

-------
 Exhibit G.7a  Frequency of Occurrence of Peak Observations for ICR Surface and
       Ground Water Plants Using Chloramines and/or Advanced Treatment
                                       Technologies
Technology
Category
Number of
Observations
A
percent or uoservations witn
TTHM Peaks Above
60|jg/L
C
75 ug/L
D
80|jg/L
E
100|jg/L
F
percent or uoservations witn
HAAS Peaks Above
45 ug/L
I
60 ug/L
J
75 ug/L
K
Stage 2 Compliance Based on a 20 Percent Safety Margin
CLM only
Adv. tech with CLM
Adv. tech w/o CLM
All plants 	
886
211
66
1,163
8.4%
2.4%
1.5%
6.9%
0.8%
0.5%
0.0%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
4.1%
0.5%
7.6%
3.6%
0.5%
0.0%
0.0%
0.3%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Stage 2 Compliance Based on a 25 Percent Safety Margin
CLM only
Adv. tech with CLM
Adv. tech w/o CLM
All plants
829
211
50
1,090
5.7%
2.4%
0.0%
4.8%
0.5%
0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
2.5%
0.5%
0.0%
2.0%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
      Notes:
      Source:
Advanced technologies include chlorine dioxide,ozone, GAC, and membranes. Advanced technologies DO
NOT consider enhanced coagulation or enhanced softening.
The 25 percent safety margin results include ground water systems.
ICR database (USEPA 2000h), analysis of 311 screened ICR surface and ground water plants.
  Exhibit G.7b  Frequency of Occurrence of Three-Quarter Averages Greater than
    75 ug/L for ICR Surface and Ground Water Plants Using Chloramines and/or
                           Advanced Treatment Technologies
Technology
Category
Number of Terms
A
TTHM Pregnancy
Means > 75 ug/L
B
Compliance Based on a 20% SM
CLM only
Adv. tech with CLM
Adv. tech w/o CLM
All plants
788
193
43
1,024
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Compliance Based on a 25% SM
CLM only
Adv. tech with CLM
Adv. tech w/o CLM
All plants
745
193
27
965
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
                    Notes:
                    Source:
              Advanced technologies include chlorine dioxide,ozone,
              GAC, and membranes. Advanced technologies DO NOT
              consider enhanced coagulation or enhanced softening.

              The 25 percent safety margin results include ground water
              systems.
              ICR database (USEPA 2000h), analysis of 311 screened
              ICR surface and ground water plants.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
                       G-13
December 2005

-------
  Exhibit G.8a  Predicted Percent of Distribution System Sampling Observations
       with Peaks for Pre-Stage 1, Pre-Stage 2, and Post-Stage 2 Conditions
TTHM Study
Level
Evaluated
60 ug/L
75 ug/L
80 ug/L
100 ug/L
Pre-Stage 1 Conditions
Number of
Observations
Evaluated
A
4,482
4,482
4,482
4,482
Number of
Observations
with Peaks
B
715
399
336
141
Percent of
Observations
with Peaks
C = B/A
16.0%
8.9%
7.5%
3.1%
Pre-Stage 2 Conditions
Number of
Observations
Evaluated
D
4,482
4,482
4,482
4,482
Number of
Observations
with Peaks
E
377
125
91
22
Percent of
Observations
with Peaks
F= E/D
8.4%
2.8%
2.0%
0.5%
Post-Stage 2 Conditions
Number of
Observations
Evaluated
G
4,482
4,482
4,482
4,482
Number of
Observations
with Peaks
H
246
42
23
4
Percent of
Observations
with Peaks
l = H/G
5.5%
0.9%
0.5%
0.1%
Sources:      (A), (D), and (G) are the number of distribution system observations evaluated for 311 screened ICR surface and ground
            water plants.
            (B), (E), and (H) are number of observations over the TTHM study level as derived in Exhibits 5.25.
  Exhibit G.8b Predicted Percent of Distribution System Three-Quarter Averages
  Greater than 75 ug/L for Pre-Stage 1, Pre-Stage 2, and Post-Stage 2 Conditions

Over
Pregnancy

Term (3-
Quarters)

75 ug/L
Pre-Stage 1 Conditions
Number of
Pregnancy

Evaluated
A
3,679
Number of
Pregnancy
Terms Greater

than TTHM
Mean
B
222
Percent of
Pregnancy
Terms Greater

than TTHM
Mean
C = B/A
6.0%
Pre-Stage 2 Conditions
Number of
Pregnancy

Evaluated
D
3,679
Number of
Pregnancy
Terms

Greater than
TTHM Mean
E
28
Percent of
Pregnancy
Terms Greater

than TTHM
Mean
F= E/D
0.8%
Post -Stage 2 Conditions
Number of
Pregnancy

Evaluated
G
3,679
Number of
Pregnancy
Terms Greater

than TTHM
Mean
H
0
Percent of
Pregnancy
Terms Greater

than TTHM
Mean
l = H/G
0.0%
Sources:      (A), (D), and (G) are the number of distribution system pregnancy terms evaluated for 311 screened ICR surface and
            ground water plants.
            (B), (E), and (H) are number of pregnancy terms with a TTHM mean greater than 75 ug/L.
G.3.2  Derivation of Fetal Losses Avoided based on Waller et al. (2001)

       Step 1:  Estimate the baseline number of fetal losses (pre-Stage 1 conditions) attributable to
               exposure to peak DBFs by multiplying the PAR value by the total number of fetal losses
               in the U.S. per year (983,000 from Ventura et al. 2000):

                      1.9% PAR x 983,000 = 18,677

       Step 2:  Estimate the percent of population exposed to peaks for Pre-Stage 1, Pre-Stage 2 and
               Post-Stage 2 conditions (derived in Section G.3.1). Results for a TTHM study level of 80
               |J,g/L are shown in Exhibit G.9.

       Step 3:  Estimate the fetal losses remaining for Pre-Stage 2 conditions.  First, estimate the fetal
               losses avoided by the Stage  1 DBPR by multiplying the Pre-Stage 1 cases by the percent
               reduction in peak DBP  exposure as a result of the Stage 1 DBPR (shown in Exhibit G.9):

                      18,677x [7.5%  - 2.0%]/7.5% = 13,696
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
G-14
December 2005

-------
                      Subtract the fetal losses avoided as a result of the Stage 1 DBPR from the pre-
                      Stage 1 baseline number of fetal losses attributable to DBFs to produce the fetal
                      losses remaining that are attributable to DBFs for Pre-Stage 2 conditions:

                      18,677- 13,696 = 4,981

       Step 4:  Calculate the fetal losses avoided as a result of the Stage 2 DBPR.  Similarly to Step 3,
               multiply the fetal losses remaining after the Stage 1 DBPR by the percent reduction in
               peak DBP exposure as a result of the Stage 2 DBPR (shown in Exhibit G.9):

                      4,981x[2.0% - 0.5%]/2.0% = 3,735
     Exhibit G.9 Exposure to Peak TTHM Levels (>80 • g/L) Based on ICR Data

Peaks / Observations
Prevalence of Exposure
(Peaks / Observations)
Pre-Stage 1
336/4,482
7.5%
Pre-Stage 2
(Post-Stage 1)
91/4,482
2.0%
Post-Stage 21
23/4,482
0.5%
  Source: Exhibit G.8a
  Note: 1Data is based on a 20 percent safety margin in the compliance forecast
G.4   Summary of Assumptions and Uncertainties

       There are a number of uncertainties and assumptions associated with calculating PAR and
deriving the estimate of fetal losses that could be attributable to DBP exposure. These include the
following:

       •       DBFs may not be the causative agent for these fetal losses.

       •       The PAR estimates may not have captured the true PAR value since they are based on
               crude relative risk estimates rather than relative risk estimates adjusted for confounding.

               By using TTHM exposure estimates as a surrogate for exposure to chlorinated DBFs,
               EPA may not be capturing potential risks associated with individual THMs or other
               DBFs. Using THMs as a surrogate may either over- or under-represent the risk.

               The annual incidence for all fetal losses  (n=983,000) was used to represent both
               spontaneous abortion and stillbirth because there is insufficient data to distinguish the
               number of miscarriages versus the number of stillbirths per year.

               TTHM occurrence for ICR plants evaluated are assumed to represent national occurrence
               data.

       •       Pregnancies are assumed to occur at equal rates throughout the year.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR
G-15
December 2005

-------
               The methodology for measuring exposure may not be the relevant exposure estimate.

These assumptions and uncertainties are not all specific to this analysis; they would be true for many
environmental epidemiological studies and population attributable risk calculations.

       There are other uncertainties and assumptions associated with calculating the reduction in
potential fetal losses that could be attributable to the Stage 2 DBPR.  To translate DBF occurrence to DBF
exposure, two assumptions were used:

•      For the  studies that were based on first trimester exposure, each observation at an ICR plant-
       location (taken at any of the following locations: Distribution System Equivalent Sample Point
       [DSE], Average Sample Point Number 1 [AVG1], Average Sample Point Number 2 [AVG2], and
       Distribution System Maximum Sample Point [DS Maximum]) was assumed to represent an equal
       portion  of the exposures to the pregnant population.  Similarly, running nine-month averages of
       TTHM concentrations from the ICR plant data were assumed to represent exposure to pregnant
       women  in the epidemiological study based on nine months of exposure (King et al. 2000).

•      Peak DBP occurrence  data for 311 large ICR plants evaluated are representative of DBP
       occurrence for all water treatment plant sizes.

Section 6.3.3.2 provides an assessment  of the validity and impact of these assumptions.

       Because DBP concentrations can be highly variable in distribution systems, it is possible that the
exposure analysis in Section 6.3.3.2 does not capture the true variability in exposure to elevated DBP
levels. Uncertainties with interpretation of the ICR data for the purposes of this exposure assessment
include the following:

       •       The extent to which small system occurrence is represented

       •       Year to year variability of DBP occurrence data that might be affected by changes in
               source water quality (e.g., drought years versus non-drought years) may not be captured
               by year of ICR data used

       •       The extent to which each ICR measurement at sampling points represents equal fractions
               of the population served

       •       The extent to which ICR sampling locations represent compliance monitoring locations
               when trying to estimate reductions in exposure resulting from compliance with Stage 1
               and Stage 2 DBPRs.
Final Economic Analysis for the Stage 2 DBPR       G-16                                 December 2005

-------
            Appendix H

          National Costs
                for
Non-Treatment-Related Rule Activities

-------

-------
Appendix H
National Costs for Non-Treatment-Related Rule Activities
This appendix presents calculation summaries and cost tables for activities under the Stage 2
Disinfectants and Disinfection Byproducts Rule (DBPR) associated with rule implementation, Initial
Distribution System Evaluations (IDSEs), Stage 2 DBPR monitoring plans, additional routine monitoring,
and operational evaluations. It supports the discussion of these rule activities in Chapter 7. For systems,
each activity is described separately in sections H.2 through H.6. A summary of all non-treatment
activities and costs for systems is presented in H.7. State/Primacy Agency activities are described in
section H.8.

Each cost summary presented in this appendix details the labor hours and corresponding labor
costs for a given activity. The derivation of the public water system (PWS) and State labor rates used for
each activity is discussed in further detail in Chapter 7 (section 7.2).
H.I Derivation of the Stage 2 Monitoring Baseline

The Stage 2 DBPR monitoring requirements (both IDSE and compliance monitoring) are based
on 8 surface water and 5 ground water population size categories. The Environmental Protection Agency
(EPA) believes these to be more appropriate for specifying the numbers of samples per system than the
standard nine system size categories that are used to generate treatment costs in this Economic Analysis
(EA). Thus, a separate Stage 2 monitoring baseline for systems is needed. The final Stage 2 DBPR
monitoring baseline, as presented in Column K in Exhibit H. 1, is derived as described below.

Exhibit H.I begins with the total number of systems according to the monitoring size categories.
The data is obtained from the 2003 4th quarter Safe Drinking Water Information System (SDWIS) frozen
database (USEPA 2003t), as explained in section 3.4 of this EA. Systems are categorized by source and
system type as well as by purchasing and nonpurchasing systems. The purchasing or nonpurchasing
designation is important because systems that purchase all their water may not have monitored for the
Stage 1 DBPR, so they may not have the data available to take advantage of some IDSE options such as
40/30 certification or very small system waivers (see section 7.3 of this EA). The purchased designation
in SDWIS, however, includes systems that treat their own water as well as purchase some of their water
from another system. These producing systems would be required to monitor for the Stage 1 DBPR and
so should be included with the nonpurchasing systems for determining which monitoring options are
available to them. To estimate inputs for these types of systems separately, estimates of "100%
purchasing" and "Producing" systems are needed.

To determine the percent of purchasing systems in SDWIS that purchase 100 percent of their
water, EPA examined SDWIS purchasing system inventory data. As explained in Chapter 3 of this EA,
in SDWIS and the Baseline Handbook (USEPA 200Ic), systems are assigned a source type using the
following hierarchy, in descending order: Surface water1, Purchased Surface water, Ground Water, and
Purchased Ground Water. The presence of the first source in this list determines the source assignment
1 For the purposes of this EA, systems supplying ground water under the influence of surface water
(GWUDI) are included with surface water systems. EPA also refers to the grouping of surface water and GWUDI
systems as "subpart H" systems in the Stage 2 DBPR rule language. Surface water and GWUDI systems are
grouped together because they fall under the same requirements in the Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA)
regulations.

Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR H-l December 2005

-------
for that system. As a result, all purchasing ground water community water systems (CWSs) and
nontransient noncommunity water systems (NTNCWSs) are, by SDWIS definition, 100 percent
purchasing systems.

Unlike purchasing ground water systems, purchasing surface water systems may have non-
purchasing supplies. To determine how many purchasing surface water CWSs buy 100 percent of their
water, EPA reviewed the results of the system linking exercise presented in section 3.4.2.2 of this EA. As
explained in that section, the "linked" surface water system inventory was created by adding the
population of 100 percent purchasing systems to their sellers and removing those systems from the
inventory. A system was not "linked" to its seller if it had its own treatment plant or bought water from a
system of a different type (e.g., a CWS buying water from a NTNCWS). Thus, remaining unlinked
purchasing surface water systems (shown in Exhibit 3.2 of this EA, columns A and B) represent either
systems that purchase finished water and have their own source, systems that buy from a different system
type (e.g., a purchasing surface water plant that has its own ground water wells), or systems with missing
seller information. In other words, those purchasing surface water systems that were able to be linked
represents the minimum number of 100 percent purchasing systems. Using the percentage of purchasing
systems that could be linked to estimate 100 percent purchasing systems may create a bias in the number
of estimated 100 percent purchasing systems, but the error introduced is expected to be minimal since the
number of remaining unlinked surface water CWSs is small.

From Exhibits 3.2 and 3.3 of this EA, the total number SDWIS purchasing surface water CWSs
that could be linked is 5,124 (4130+994), and the percent of the total is 94 [51247(4130+994+232+83)].
Note that this calculation was not performed for each Stage 2 DBPR monitoring size category because
inventory data in Chapter 3 is organized according to the standard nine size categories (not the Stage 2
DBPR monitoring categories). The percentage of all purchasing surface water systems that could be
linked (94 percent) was used in Exhibit H.I to estimate the baseline number of purchasing surface water
CWSs that buy 100 percent of their water (see column D).

A large portion of NTNCWSs could not be linked because they purchase water from different
system types (in many cases, a NTNCWS purchases water from a CWS and was therefore, not linked).
Therefore, a different methodology was used to estimate the percent of purchasing surface water
NTNCWS that buy 100 percent of their water. All NTNCWSs are assumed to have just one entry point
per system (as explained in section 3.4.2.2, these systems are most often a single building or located in a
small area). Following this logic, a purchasing surface water NTNCWS is unlikely to have a second
treated source—all are assumed to be 100 percent purchasing systems.

Only systems that disinfect or deliver disinfected water will be required to meet the requirements
of the Stage 2 DBPR. Therefore, to determine the appropriate baseline for nontreatment costs, the
number of disinfecting systems is determined. As with the treatment plant baseline, all surface water
systems are assumed to be disinfecting. The percent of disinfecting ground water systems was obtained
from the Third Edition of the Baseline Handbook, which is derived from the 1995 Community Water
Systems Survey (CWSS). Column H of Exhibit H. 1 displays the percentage disinfecting.
Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR H-2 December 2005

-------
                   Exhibit H.1  Baseline Number of Disinfecting Systems by Monitoring Size Categories



Size Category



Number of Systems




Purchased
A




Nonpurchased




Total
B C

Percent of
Purchased
Systems that
Purchase 100%
of Their Water
D
Surface Water and Mixed CWSs
<500
500-3,300
3,301-9,999
10,000-49,999
50,000-249,999
250,000-999,999
1,000,000-4,999,999
>5 M
National Totals
2,191
2,531
1,001
795
188
9
-
-
6,715
1,106
1,527
1,041
978
346
72
17
1
5,088
3,297
4,058
2,042
1,773
534
81
17
1
11,803
94.00%
94.00%
94.00%
94.00%
94.00%
94.00%
94.00%
94.00%

Disinfecting Ground Water Only CWSs
<500
500-9,999
10,000-99,999
100,000-499,999
> 500,000
National Totals
1,127
976
41
1
-
2,145
25,501
12,390
1,381
61
6
39,339
26,628
13,366
1,422
62
6
41,484
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%

Surface Water and Mixed NTNCWSs
<500
500-3,300
3,301-9,999
10,000-49,999
50,000-249,999
250,000-999,999
1,000,000-4,999,999
>5 M
National Totals
126
55
11
4
1
-
-
-
197
422
144
13
1
-
-
-
-
580
548
199
24
5
1
-
-
-
777
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%

Disinfecting Ground Water Only NTNCWSs
<500
500-9,999
10,000-99,999
100,000-499,999
> 500,000
National Totals
Grand Totals
55
25
3


83
9,140
15,882
2,933
9
1

18,825
63,832
15,937
2,958
12
1

18,908
72,972
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%


Number of Systems



100%
Purchasing
E = A*D

2,060
2,379
941
747
177
8
0
0
6,312

1,127
976
41
1
0
2,145

126
55
11
4
1
0
0
0
197

55
25
3
0
0
83
8,737




Producing
F = C-E

1,237
1,679
1,101
1,026
357
73
17
1
5,491

25,501
12,390
1,381
61
6
39,339

422
144
13
1
0
0
0
0
580

15,882
2,933
9
1
0
18,825
64,235




Total
G = E + F

3,297
4,058
2,042
1,773
534
81
17
1
11,803

26,628
13,366
1,422
62
6
41,484

548
199
24
5
1
0
0
0
777

15,937
2,958
12
1
0
18,908
72,972




Percent
Disinfecting
H

100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%


66.68%
82.67%
95.48%
96.40%
98.19%


100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%


29.00%
29.00%
29.00%
29.00%
29.00%


Number of Disinfecting Systems



100%
Purchasing
l = E*H

2,060
2,379
941
747
177
8
0
0
6,312

752
807
39
1
0
1,598

126
55
11
4
1
0
0
0
197

16
7
1
0
0
24
8,132




Producing
J = F*H

1,237
1,679
1,101
1,026
357
73
17
1
5,491

17,005
10,243
1,319
59
6
28,631

422
144
13
1
0
0
0
0
580

4,606
851
3
0
0
5,459
40,161




Total
K = I+J

3,297
4,058
2,042
1,773
534
81
17
1
11,803

17,756
11,050
1,358
60
6
30,229

548
199
24
5
1
0
0
0
777

4,622
858
3
0
0
5,483
48,293
    Sources:
    (A), (B) 2003 4th quarter SDWIS frozen database (USEPA 2003t).
    (D) Percentage of purchased systems that are 100% purchasing is estimated from SDWIS data
    (H) Percent disinfecting is estimated from the Third Edition of the Baseline Handbook (Table B1.3.3) originally derived from the 1995 CWSS.
Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR
H-3
December 2005

-------
H.2    Rule Implementation Activities for Systems

        Exhibit H.2 presents the costs and burden2 for systems to perform implementation activities
associated with the Stage 2 DBPR.  These costs represent the labor hours incurred by PWSs to read the
appropriate Stage 2 DBPR documents and train staff in their requirements. All systems subject to the
Stage 2 DBPR  are expected to undertake these implementation activities.  Exhibit H.2 presents estimates
of implementation hours and costs by system type, system size, and source water type.
         Burden means the total time, effort, or resources expended by persons to generate, maintain, retain,
disclose, or provide information to or for a federal agency. This includes the time needed to review instructions;
adjust the existing ways to comply with any previously applicable instructions and requirements; train personnel to
be able to respond to the collection of information; search data sources; complete and review the collection of
information; and transmit or otherwise disclose the information.

Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR           H-4                                   December 2005

-------
            Exhibit H.2  Rule Implementation  Burden and Costs for Systems


Size Category
Total Number
of Systems
A
Read Hours
per PWS
B
Train Hours
per PWS
C
Cost per
Labor Hour
D

Total Cost
E = A*(B+C)*D
Total Burden
(Hours)
F = A*(B+C)
Total Burden
(FTEs)
G = F/2,080
Surface Water and Mixed CWSs
<500
500-3,300
3,301-9,999
10,000-49,999
50,000-249,999
250,000-999,999
1,000,000-4,999,999
>5M
National Totals
3,297
4,058
2,042
1,773
534
81
17
1
11,803
8
8
8
20
20
20
20
20
2
2
2
2
2
4
4
4
$ 22.55
$ 24.74
$ 30.51
$ 31 .08
$ 32.64
$ 35.25
$ 35.25
$ 35.25

$ 743,375
$ 1 ,003,949
$ 623,055
$ 1,212,306
$ 383,467
$ 68,522
$ 14,381
$ 846
$ 4,049,902
32,970
40,580
20,420
39,006
11,748
1,944
408
24
147,100
15.85
19.51
9.82
18.75
5.65
0.93
0.20
0.01
70.72
Disinfecting Ground Water Only CWSs
<500
500-9,999
10,000-99,999
100,000-499,999
> 500,000
National Totals
17,756
1 1 ,050
1,358
60
6
30,229
8
8
20
20
20
1
1
1
1
1
$ 22.35
$ 24.86
$ 31 .08
$ 35.25
$ 35.25

$ 3,572,101
$ 2,472,179
$ 886,174
$ 44,241
$ 4,361
$ 6,979,054
159,807
99,446
28,513
1,255
124
289,145
76.83
47.81
13.71
0.60
0.06
139.01
Surface Water and Mixed NTNCWSs
<500
500-3,300
3,301-9,999
10,000-49,999
50,000-249,999
250,000-999,999
1,000,000-4,999,999
>5M
National Totals
548
199
24
5
1
-
-
-
777
8
8
8
20
20
20
20
20
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
$ 22.39
$ 24.74
$ 30.51
$ 31 .08
$ 35.25
N/A
N/A
N/A

$ 110,450
$ 44,309
$ 6,591
$ 3,263
$ 740
$
$
$
$ 165,353
4,932
1,791
216
105
21
-
-
-
7,065
2.37
0.86
0.10
0.05
0.01
-
-
-
3.40
Disinfecting Ground Water Only NTNCWSs
<500
500-9,999
10,000-99,999
100,000-499,999
500,000-1 ,499,999
National Totals
Grand Totals
4,622
858
3
0.3
-
5,483
48,293
8
8
20
20
20
1
1
1
1
1
$ 22.20
$ 24.76
$ 31 .08
$ 35.25
N/A


$ 923,423
$ 191,118
$ 2,271
$ 215
$
$ 1,117,027
$ 12,311,336
41 ,596
7,720
73
6
-
49,395
492,705
20.00
3.71
0.04
0.00
-
23.75
236.88
 Notes:     Detail may not add due to independent rounding.
          1 FTE=2,080 hours (40 hours/week; 52 weeks/year).
 Sources:   (A) Number of disinfecting systems (column K) from Exhibit H.1.
          (B and C) Hours for reading the rule and training appropriate personel are estimated based on EPA experience implementing
          previous regulations.
          (D) Labor rates from the Labor Costs for National Drinking Water Rules (USEPA, 2003s). An 80:20 split between technical
          and managerial labor rates was assumed, except for systems serving 500 or fewer people, for which only a technical rate
          was applied.
Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR
H-5
December 2005

-------
H.3 IDSE Activities for Systems

The purpose of the IDSE is to aid PWSs in identifying sample locations for Stage 2 compliance
monitoring that represent distribution system sites with high TTHM and HAAS levels. Some systems are
not subject to IDSE requirements or may receive waivers. The first step in estimating costs for the IDSE
is to categorize the systems into one of the five IDSE options listed below.
Systems Performing the IDSE:

Systems conducting standard monitoring

Systems using system specific studies
(SSS)
Systems Not Performing the IDSE:

• All NTNCWSs serving fewer than 10,000
people.

• Systems serving fewer than 500 people that
receive a very small system waiver.

• Systems eligible for the 40/30 certification.
Costs and burden associated with IDSE activities differ depending on whether or not the system
performs the IDSE and, if so, which option a system chooses. All systems performing the IDSE are
expected to incur some costs, as are those that are eligible for the 40/30 certification.

Section H.3.1 describes the assumptions for allocating systems to the five categories. Section
H.3.2 provides cost estimates for those systems performing the IDSE (Standard Monitoring or SSS
option). Section H.3.3 provides the rationale and, if appropriate, cost estimates for systems not
performing the IDSE (NTNCWSs serving < 10,000; systems serving < 500 that receive a waiver; and
systems that qualify for the 40/30 certification).
H.3.1 Categorization of Systems

Exhibits H.3a and H.3b summarize the percentages and estimated number of systems that will
conduct each IDSE activity for 100 percent purchasing and producing systems, respectively. The
percentages associated with each IDSE activity, listed in columns B-D of these exhibits, have been
derived for the total population served in each size category, but are applied to the number of systems in a
size category sequentially. For example, the very small system waiver is applied to the total number of
systems (3,297); then the percentage of systems qualifying for the 40/30 certification is applied to the
remaining systems; finally, the percentage of systems conducting an SSS is applied to the systems that
cannot be granted either the waiver or certification. The assumptions underlying the percentages are
discussed in detail in the remainder of this section. The number of systems in the IDSE categories that
are expected to incur system costs (standard monitoring, SSS, and 40/30 certification) are presented in the
last three columns of these exhibits.

NTNCWSs Serving < JO, 000 People

None of the NTNCWSs serving fewer than 10,000 people are subject to the IDSE requirements.
The exhibits in this appendix note "N/A" for these NTNCWS population categories.
Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR
H-6
December 2005

-------
   Exhibit H.3a  Percent and Number of 100 Percent Purchasing Systems in Each
                                             IDSE Category







Size Category
Total
Number of
100%
Purchasing
Systems


A
Percentage
Receiving a
Very Small
System
Waiver


B
Percentage
Having
Concentrations
Less than or
Equal to 40/30


C



Percentage
Using Studies


D
Systems
Conducting
IDSE
Standard
Monitoring

E=A*(1-B)-F-
G

Systems
Receiving the
40/30
Certification

F=Round
[A*(1-B)*C]


Systems
Using
Studies
G=Round
[A*(1-B)*(1-
C)*D]
Surface Water and Mixed CWSs
<500
500-3,300
3,301-9,999
10,000-49,999
50,000-249,999
250,000-999,999
1 ,000,000-4,999,999
>5M
National Totals
2,060
2,379
941
747
177
8
-
-
6,312
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
14%
14%
14%
14%
14%
0%
0%
0%
0%
5%
10%
10%
10%

2,060
2,379
941
642
144
6
-
-
6,172
-
-
-
105
25
1
-
-
131
-
-
-
-
8
1
-
-
9
Disinfecting Ground Water Only CWSs
<500
500-9,999
10,000-99,999
100,000-499,999
> 500,000
National Totals
752
807
39
1
-
1,598
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
82%
66%
79%
0%
0%
0%
10%
10%

752
807
7
-
-
1,566
-
-
32
1
-
33
-
-
-
-
-
0
Surface Water and Mixed NTNCWSs
<500
500-3,300
3,301-9,999
10,000-49,999
50,000-249,999
250,000-999,999
1 ,000,000-4,999,999
>5M
National Totals
126
55
11
4
1
-
-
-
197
N/A
N/A
N/A
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
14%
14%
14%
14%
14%
N/A
N/A
N/A
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%

N/A
N/A
N/A
3
1
-
-
-
4
N/A
N/A
N/A
1
-
-
-
-
1
N/A
N/A
N/A
-
-
-
-
-
0
Disinfecting Ground Water Only NTNCWSs
<500
500-9,999
10,000-99,999
100,000-499,999
> 500,000
National Totals
Grand Totals
16
7
1
-
-
24
8,132
N/A
N/A
0%
0%
0%
N/A
N/A
92%
92%
92%
N/A
N/A
0%
0%
0%


N/A
N/A
-
-
-
0
7,742
N/A
N/A
1
-
-
1
166
N/A
N/A
-
-
-
0
9
    Notes:      Detail may not add due to independent rounding.
              Results in columns F and G are rounded to whole systems.
              Column C is percent of systems with TTHM concentrations less than or equal to 40 ug/L and HAAS concentrations less than or
              equal to 30  ug/L for Stage 1 DBPR monitoring.
    Sources:    (A) Number of disinfecting 100% purchasing systems (Exhibit H.1, column I).
              (B)-(C) 100% purchasing systems may not have DBP data with which to qualify for the waiver or certification. As a
              conservative assumption, 0% is used.
              (D) Percentage of systems able to use historical data based on expert opinion.
Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR
H-7
December 2005

-------
  Exhibit H.3b  Percent and Number of Producing Systems  in Each  IDSE Category

Size Category
Total
Number of
Producing
Systems

A
Percentage
Receiving a
Very Small
System
Waiver

B
Percentage
Having
Concentrations
Less than or Equal
to 40/30

C
Percentage
Using Studies

D
Systems
Conducting
IDSE
Standard
Monitoring

E=A*(1-B)-F-G
Systems
Receiving the
40/30
Certification
F=Round
[A*(1-B)*C]
Systems
Using
Studies
G=Round
C)*D]
Surface Water and Mixed CWSs
<500
500-3,300
3,301-9,999
10,000-49,999
50,000-249,999
250,000-999,999
1 ,000,000-4,999,999
>5M
National Totals
1,237
1,679
1,101
1,026
357
73
17
1
5,491
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
14%
14%
14%
14%
14%
14%
14%
0%
0%
0%
0%
5%
10%
10%
10%

-
1,444
947
882
292
57
14
1
3,636
-
235
154
144
50
10
2
-
595
-
-
-
-
15
6
1
-
22
Disinfecting Ground Water Only CWSs
<500
500-9,999
10,000-99,999
100,000-499,999
> 500,000
National Totals
17,005
10,243
1,319
59
6
28,631
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
89%
82%
66%
79%
0%
0%
0%
10%
10%

-
1,149
233
18
1
1,400
-
9,094
1,086
39
5
10,224
-
-
-
2
-
2
Surface Water and Mixed NTNCWSs
<500
500-3,300
3,301-9,999
10,000-49,999
50,000-249,999
250,000-999,999
1 ,000,000-4,999,999
>5M
National Totals
422
144
13
1
-
-
-
-
580
N/A
N/A
N/A
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
14%
14%
14%
14%
14%
N/A
N/A
N/A
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%

N/A
N/A
N/A
1
-
-
-
-
1
N/A
N/A
N/A
-
-
-
-
-
0
N/A
N/A
N/A
-
-
-
-
-
0
Disinfecting Ground Water Only NTNCWSs
<500
500-9,999
10,000-99,999
100,000-499,999
> 500,000
National Totals
Grand Totals
4,606
851
3
0
-
5,459
40,161
N/A
N/A
0%
0%
0%
N/A
N/A
92%
92%
92%
N/A
N/A
0%
0%
0%


N/A
N/A
1
0
-
1
5,038
N/A
N/A
2
-
-
2
10,821
N/A
N/A
-
-
-
0
24
    Notes:      Detail may not add due to independent rounding.
               Results in columns F and G are rounded to whole systems.
               Column C is percent of systems with TTHM concentrations less than or equal to 40 ug/L and HAAS concentrations less than or
               equal to 30  ug/L for Stage 1 DBPR monitoring.
    Sources:     (A) Number of producing disinfecting systems (Exhibit H.1, column J).
               (B) The percentage of small systems to receive a very small system waiver is an assumption based on EPA experience with
               small systems. 100% purchasing systems may not have DBP data with which to qualify for small system waivers. As a
               conservative estimate 0% is assumed.
               (C) Percentage of systems with all data less than or equal to 40/30 for Surface Water and Mixed systems based on ICR and
               NRWA data.
               (D) Percentage of systems able to use historical data based on expert opinion.
Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR
H-8
December 2005

-------
Systems Receiving a Very Small System Waiver

Systems serving fewer than 500 people that have conducted Stage 1 monitoring are eligible for a
very small system waiver from the IDSE requirements. These systems must conduct IDSE monitoring or
an SSS, however, if they have not monitored for Stage 1 or if the State directs them to do so. It is
assumed that no small 100 percent purchasing systems are eligible for the very small system waiver. This
is a conservative estimate, as some States may have already required these systems to monitor
disinfection byproduct (DBFs).

Because all systems with data will receive the waiver unless the State notifies them otherwise, it
is assumed all producing systems will receive the very small system waiver. Although this may be a
slight overestimate, it is believed that very few of these systems will be required to monitor by the State.

Systems Receiving the 40/30 Certification

To be eligible for the 40/30 certification, systems must certify to the State/Primacy Agency that
each individual sample collected for the Stage 1 DBPR is no more than 40 micrograms per liter ((ig/L) for
TTHM and 30 (ig/L for HAAS, and that there were no TTHM or HAAS monitoring violations during the
same period. Small systems that purchase 100 percent of their water may not have the Stage 1 DBPR
monitoring data needed in order to apply for a 40/30 certification. Although this is a conservative
estimate, it is assumed that no small 100 percent purchasing systems can receive a 40/30 certification.

EPA used various data sources to estimate the percentage of producing systems that could
potentially qualify for the 40/30 certification. Based on analysis of the last 4 quarters of Information
Collection Rule (ICR) data3, it was estimated that 14 percent of large and medium surface water systems
could show that all compliance monitoring data were less than or equal to 40 (ig/L for TTHM and 30
(ig/L for HAAS. While this may be an underestimate because it is based on pre-Stage 1 data, few
additional systems will make changes to meet Stage 1 requirements that will result in all of their samples
being less than or equal to 40/30. In the absence of other information, however, EPA believes that 14
percent is the best estimate of large and medium surface water systems that could meet the 40/30
certification requirements.

For small surface water systems, analysis of National Rural Water Association (NRWA) Winter
and Summer data indicates that 12 percent could quality for the 40/30 certification. However, small
systems have a later start date for the IDSE, and some systems will most likely make treatment
technology changes to meet the Stage 1 DBPR before the start of the IDSE. Therefore, the percent with
all compliance data less than or equal to 40/30 for small systems is estimated to be the same as for large
systems (i.e., 14 percent). EPA assumed that no very small systems will qualify for the 40/30
certification since very small systems with data will receive a very small system waiver instead.

For all ground water systems, ICR data were used to estimate the percentage that could qualify
for the 40/30 certification. Approximately 24 percent of ICR ground water systems are located in Florida
where total organic carbon (TOC) levels (and consequently DBP levels) are high. Appendix B describes
the analysis of Florida and non-Florida ICR data, which shows that 18 percent of Florida systems have all
TTHM and HAAS concentrations less than or equal to 40/30 respectively and 92 percent of non-Florida
systems have all concentrations less than or equal to 40/30. These percentages were applied to the Florida
3At least 3 of 4 quarters must have TTHM and HAAS data for at least 3 of 4 distribution system locations
(TTHM and HAA5 data do not have to be present at the same location, however) for a plant to be included in this
analysis.

Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR H-9 December 2005

-------
and non-Florida systems in each system size category, respectively to produce the percent estimates in
column C of Exhibit H.3a and H.3b.

Conducting an SSS

An SSS based on hydraulic modeling or existing monitoring data can be used instead of standard
monitoring. EPA estimates that 10 percent of the surface water and disinfecting ground water systems
serving more than 100,000 people and 5 percent of surface water systems serving 50,000 to 100,000
people will complete an SSS in lieu of monitoring. EPA assumed that surface water systems serving
fewer than 50,000 people and ground water systems serving fewer than 100,000 people will not have
adequate historical data or models to meet the SSS requirements.

Conducting Standard Monitoring

All systems that do not receive a waiver, do not quality for the 40/30 certification, or cannot use
an SSS are required to perform standard monitoring. Standard monitoring involves selecting specific
types of sample sites in the distribution system (e.g., maximum TTHM sites, sites near the entry point)
and monitoring at those sites for 1 year. The number and type of required samples are based on system
size, source water type, and residual disinfectant type. The system must prepare a report summarizing the
results of the standard monitoring and justifying selection of Stage 2 compliance monitoring sites.
H.3.2 Costs for Systems Performing the IDSE

Systems Conducting Standard Monitoring

Standard monitoring consists of three activities—preparing an IDSE monitoring plan, monitoring,
and reporting. Costs associated with preparing the IDSE monitoring plan result from the labor effort
required to evaluate the distribution system, select the sites, and layout where and when the system will
collect and analyze samples. Labor hours are estimated on a per-system basis and vary by system size,
with the assumption that larger systems need more time to select sites. The labor hour estimates for
monitoring plan preparation are based on EPA's experience with other rules.

Monitoring costs include labor for sample collection and laboratory costs for sample analysis.
These costs are estimated from the number of samples required. EPA estimates that systems will spend
an average of 1 hour to collect one sample. Laboratory costs include $200 for analysis of TTHM and
HAA5 paired samples. A shipping cost of $40 for systems serving fewer than 10,000 is included to
reflect that these systems are unlikely to have in-house laboratory facilities and are less likely to be able
to take advantage of bulk rate discounts. For systems serving 10,000 or more people, a shipping cost of
$10 is added to reflect that many of them have in-house laboratories and can take advantage of bulk rates.
These costs represent averages obtained from the ICR (see Chapter 7, section 7.1.1 for more information
on laboratory cost assumptions). Costs per sample for ground and surface water plants are not expected
to differ substantially.

As noted in section H. 1, the total number of sampling sites and frequency of sampling for systems
is a function of system size (population served) and source water type, not the number of plants. Larger
systems must sample at more sites and more frequently than smaller ones, which typically have shorter
and less complex distribution systems. Surface water sources generally have higher DBP precursor levels
than ground water sources; therefore, they have a greater potential for high DBP occurrence.

Reporting costs reflect the labor required for systems to prepare and submit a report to their
State/Primacy Agency on IDSE results and their proposed Stage 2 DBPR compliance monitoring sites.

Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR H-10 December 2005

-------
These costs are estimated on a per system basis for all systems. The reporting labor rate is the same rate
used for preparation of the IDSE monitoring plan.

       Exhibit H.4 shows the calculations and estimated costs and burden for systems expected to
monitor for the IDSE.

Systems Performing an SSS

       Cost estimates for systems conducting an SSS consist of preparing a study plan, conducting the
study, and reporting results.  The labor hours required for the study plan and report are similar to the
hours required for the standard monitoring plan and report for systems performing the standard
monitoring. A uniform value of 20 hours was used for all large systems, as it is the average of the
reporting costs in the three largest size categories for systems doing an IDSE report for the standard
monitoring. Conducting the SSS study was estimated to take 40 hours of labor. The estimate is based on
EPA's best professional judgement and its experience with similar programs. Exhibit H.5 shows the
calculations and estimated costs and burden for systems completing an SSS in lieu of standard monitoring
to fulfill IDSE requirements.
Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR          H-ll                                 December 2005

-------
                Exhibit H.4  IDSE  Costs for Systems  Using  Standard Monitoring

Size Category


Total Number
of Systems
that Monitor
A
Develop IDSE monitoring plan and report
Preparation
of IDSE
Monitoring
Plan
B
Preparation of
IDSE Report
C
Reporting Cost
per Labor Hour
D
Sampling
Number of
Dual Sample
Sets per
System
E
Hours
per
Sample
F
Sampling
Cost per
Labor Hour
G
Laboratory
Cost per
Sample
H

Total Cost
=A*((B+C)*D+E*(
F*G+H))

Total
Burden
(Hours)
J=A*(B+C+
E'F)

Total
Burden
(FTEs)
K=J/2,080
Surface Water and Mixed CWSs
<500
500-3,300
3,301-9,999
10,000-49,999
50,000-249,999
250,000-999,999
1,000,000-4,999,999
>5M
National Totals
2,060
3,823
1,888
1,524
436
63
14
1
9,809
4
4
4
8
8
12
16
24
2
2
2
4
8
12
24
24
$ 22.55
$ 24.74
$ 30.51
$ 31.08
$ 32.64
$ 35.25
$ 35.25
$ 35.25

2
8
16
48
96
144
192
240
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
$ 22.55
$ 24.74
$ 25.34
$ 26.05
$ 28.00
$ 31.26
$ 31.26
$ 31.26
$ 240
$ 240
$ 240
$ 210
$ 210
$ 210
$ 210
$ 210

$ 1,360,071
$ 8,664,294
$ 8,361,031
$ 17,835,921
$ 10,189,487
$ 2,242,006
$ 668,246
$ 59,594
$ 49,380,649
16,476
53,522
41,536
91,440
48,832
10,584
3,248
288
265,926
7.9
25.7
20.0
44.0
23.5
5.1
1.6
0.1
127. 8
Disinfecting Ground Water Only CWSs
<500
500-9,999
10,000-99,999
100,000-499,999
> 500,000
National Totals
752
1,956
240
18
1
2,966
4
4
8
12
16
2
2
8
12
24
$ 22.35
$ 24.86
$ 31.08
$ 35.25
$ 35.25

2
8
24
32
48
1
1
1
1
1
$ 22.35
$ 24.86
$ 26.05
$ 31.26
$ 31.26
$ 240
$ 240
$ 210
$ 210
$ 210

$ 495,114
$ 4,435,321
$ 1,477,430
$ 152,514
$ 11,576
$ 6,571,956
6,012
27,378
9,590
997
78
44,056
2.9
13.2
4.6
0.5
0.0
21.2
Surface Water and Mixed NTNCWSs
t«a
500-3,350
3,301-8,899
10,000-49,999
50,000-249,999
250,000-999,999
1,000,000-4,999,999
>5M
National Totals
N/A
N/A
NIA
4
1
0
0
0
5
N/A
N/A
N/A
8
8
12
16
24
WA
WA
N/A
4
8
12
24
24
WA
WA
N/A
$ 31.08
$ 35.25
N/A
N/A
N/A

WA
N/A
N/A
48
96
144
192
240
WA
WA
N/A
1
1
1
1
1
NIA
N/A
Njk
$ 26.05
$ 31.26
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
• NIA
WA
$ 210
$ 210
$ 210
$ 210
$ 210

N/A
• NIA
WA
$ 46,813
$ 23,725
$
$
$
$ 70,538
N/A
N/A
N/A,
240
112
-

-
352
WA
N/A
N/A
0.1
0.1
-

-
0.2
Disinfecting Ground Water Only NTNCWSs
<«IQ
500-9,988
10,000-99,999
100,000-499,999
> 500,000
National Totals
Grand Totals
N/A
• N/A
1
0
0
1
12,780
N/A
N/A
8
12
16
IWA
WA
8
12
24
WA
WA
$ 31.08
$ 35.25
N/A

WA
' N/A
24
32
48
WA
WA
1
1
1
NIA
N/A
$ 26.05
$ 31.26
N/A
N/A
NIA
$ 210
$ 210
$ 210


N/A
NIA
$ 3,759
$ 2,484
$
$ 6,243
$ 56,029,386
N/A
N/A
24
16

41
310,375
N/A
N/A
0.0
0.0

0.0
149.2
          Detail may not add due to independent rounding.
          Shaded areas represent systems that are not subject to IDSE requirements.
          1 FTE=2,080 hours (40 hours/week; 52 weeks/year).
          (A) From Exhibits H.3a and H.3b, column E.
          (B and C) Labor hours for site selection and reporting based on expert opinion received during regulatory development process.
          (D)Site selection and reporting labor rates estimated based on labor rates from Labor Costs for National Drinking Water Rules (USEPA 2003s) . An 80:20 split between technical
          and managerial labor rates was assumed, except for systems serving 500 or fewer people, for which only a technical rate was applied.
          (E) Number of IDSE samples per system based on rule requirements for conducting IDSE monitoring. Column E in Exhibit 1.2. (Number of sites multiplied by frequency of samples
          (F) Labor hours per sample reflect EPA estimate.
          (G) Sampling labor rates estimated based on technical labor rates from the Labor Costs for National Drinking Water Rules (USEPA 2003s) .
          (H) Laboratory cost for TTHM and HAA5 analyses per sample based on costs incurred for the ICR. $10 Shipping is added for large systems as many large systems have in-house
          capacity and will not have to ship. $40 is added for small systems because of higher shipping charges and fewer samples (no bulk discounts).
Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR
H-ll
December 2005

-------
                         Exhibit H.5  IDSE Costs for Systems  Using SSSs
Size Category

Number of
Systems
Qualifying for
SSS
A
Preparation of
IDSE Study
Plan
B
Conduct Study
C
Preparation of
IDSE Study
Report
D
Cost per
Labor Hour
E
Total Cost
F =
A*(B+C+D)*E
Total Burden
(Hours)
G =
A*(B+C+D)
Total Burden
(FTEs)
H = G/2,080
Surface Water and Mixed CWSs
<500
500-3,300
3,301-9,999
10,000-49,999
50,000-249,999
250,000-999,999
1,000,000-4,999,999
>5M
National Total
-

-

23
7
1

31
-

-

20
20
20

-

-

40
40
40

-

-

20
20
20

-

-

$ 32.64
$ 35.25
$ 35.25


$
$
$
$
$ 60,060
$ 19,739
$ 2,820
$
$ 82,618
-

-

1,840
560
80

2,480
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.88
0.27
0.04
0.00
1.19
Disinfecting Ground Water Only CWSs
<500
500-9,999
10,000-99,999
100,000-499,999
> 500,000
National Total
-

-
2

2
-

-
20

-

-
40

-

-
20

-

-
$ 35.25


$
$
$
$ 5,640
$
$ 5,640
-

-
160

160
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.08
0.00
0.08
Surface Water and Mixed NTNCWSs
5*00
600-3,300
3if31-3i83i
10,000-49,999
50,000-249,999
250,000-999,999
1,000,000-4,999,999
>5M
National Total
JM/A
/ Nft
/ ,,WA
-


-

-
N/A'
,WA
/ N/A
-


-

N/A'
,«A
/ N/A
-


-

N/A
,MA
/ N/A,
-


-

N/A
N/A
N|A
-


-


N/A
,MA
,••' N/A.
$
$
$
$
$
$
N/A
,MA
,••' N/A.
-


-

-
N/A
,WA
,-*' N/A.
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Disinfecting Ground Water Only NTNCWSs
$600
6003,988
10,000-99,999
100,000-499,999
> 500,000
National Total
Grand Totals
,N/A
/ m

-

-
33
,N/A
/ WA

-

JM/A
/ N/A

-

JM/A
/' N/A

-

N/A
ffA

-



JM/A
,-'"" N/A
$
$
$
$
$ 88,258
JM/A
,•'*' N/A

-

-
2,640
N/A
,MA
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.27
 Notes:     Detail may not add due to independent rounding.
          Shaded areas represent systems that are not subject to IDSE requirements.
          SSS stands for Systems using System Specific Studies.
 Sources:   (A) Number of systems using studies to satisfy IDSE requirements from Exhibits H.3a and H.3b, column G.
          (B), (C), (D) Reporting hours required per system based on expert opinion.
          (E) Labor rates from Labor Costs for National Drinking Water Rules (USEPA, 2003s). An 80:20 split between technical and managerial labor
          rates was assumed, except for systems serving 500 or fewer people, for which only a technical rate was applied.
Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR
H-13
December 2005

-------
H.3.3 Costs for Systems Not Performing the IDSE

As noted in the beginning of section H.3, there are three types of systems that do not have to
perform the IDSE:

• All NTNCWSs serving fewer than 10,000 people (they are not subject to IDSE requirements)

• Systems receiving the very small system waiver

• Systems qualifying for the 40/30 certification (all TTHM and HAAS compliance monitoring
data must be less than or equal to 40/30 (ig/L, respectively)

Since NTNCWSs serving fewer than 10,000 people are not subject to IDSE requirements, they
bear no costs. EPA estimates a minimal burden for systems receiving a very small system waiver, given
that they are automatically covered by the waiver if they have Stage 1 monitoring data unless the State
requires otherwise. Therefore, this EA does not include costs for systems receiving the very small system
waiver.

Systems qualifying for the 40/30 certification are expected to bear a small cost for reviewing
monitoring data and preparing a certification letter to send to the State. Cost calculations are shown in
Exhibit H.7. For CWS systems serving fewer than 10,000 people, reporting hours for 40/30 certification
reports were estimated to be one hour. For systems serving at least 10,000 people certification reports
were estimated to be 2 hours.

EPA also considers costs for those systems that receive the 40/30 certification and do not have to
perform the IDSE, but must select additional Stage 2 sites compared to Stage 1 DBPR requirements. The
number of those systems with additional sites is based on a comparison of Stage 2 population-based
monitoring requirements to an analysis of Stage 1 plant-based requirements multiplied by the average
number of plants per system. This analysis is shown in Section H.5. A minimal burden of one hour is
estimated for very small systems, as only one additional site will be selected and the distribution systems
are generally small. For larger systems the hours are estimated to be similar to the hours required to
prepare the standard monitoring plan.
Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR H-14 December 2005

-------
       Exhibit H.6  IDSE Costs for Systems Receiving the 40/30 Certification
Size Category
Selecting Additional Sites
Systems Receiving
40/30 Certification
but Adding Stage 2
site(s)
A
Hours per
System
B
Preparing IDSE Certification
Number of
Systems Receiving
40/30 Certification
C
Reporting
Hours per
System
D
Cost per
Labor Hour
E
Total Cost
F = (A*B+C*D)*E
Total Burden
(Hours)
G = A*B+C*D
Total Burden
(FTEs)
H = G/2,080
Surface Water and Mixed CWSs
<500
500-3,300
3,301-9,999
10,000-49,999
50,000-249,999
250,000-999,999
1,000,000-4,999,999
>SM
National Total
154
75
11
2
242
1
3
3
8
8
8
8
8

235
154
249
75
11
2
726
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
$ 22.55
$ 24.74
$ 30.51
$ 31.08
$ 32.64
$ 35.25
$ 35.25
$ 35.25

$
$ 5,814
$ 18,795
$ 15,478
$ 24,481
$ 3,877
$ 705
$
$ 69,150
235
616
498
750
110
20
2,229
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.4
0.1
0.0
1.1
Disinfecting Ground Water Only CWSs
<500
500-9,999
10,000-99,999
100,000-499,999
> 500,000
National Total
9,094
1,118
10,212
1
3
8
8
8

9,094
1,118
40
5
10,257
1
1
2
2
2
$ 22.35
$ 24.86
$ 31.08
$ 35.25
$ 35.25

$
$ 904,287
$ 347,474
$ 2,820
$ 352
$ 1 ,254,934
36,376
11,180
80
10
47,646
17.5
5.4
0.0
0.0
22.9
Surface Water and Mixed NTNCWSs
«5QQ
500-3,300
3,301
10,000-49,999
50,000-249,999
250,000-999,999
1,000,000-4,999,999
>5M
National Total
n»
/NfA
/ NfA
-
NfA
J*A
Xt*
8
8
8
8
8

J*'
/NfA
/ N/A
1
1
JJ/A
/NfA
/ NfA
2
2
2
2
2
NfA
J*A
Xf«*
$ 31.08
$ 35.25
N/A
N/A
N/A

NfA
JW
Xt*A
$ 62
$
$
$
$
$ 62
NfA
J*A
,/J«
2
2
N/A
J*A
XP«
0.0
0.0
Disinfecting Ground Water Only NTNCWSs
<5a>
,SOO-8,S9i
10,000-99,999
100,000-499,999
> 500,000
National Total
Grand Totals
N/A
JS»
3
3
10,457
|I/A
/f*A
8
8
8


Nl|.
J«
3
3
10,987
N/4
J*
2
3
6
J*\
/N&
$ 31.08
$ 35.25
N/A


|I/A
/N/A
$ 932
$
$
$ 932
$ 1 ,325,079
J«\
/N^S
30
30
49,907
|I/A
/N/A
0.0
0.0
24.0
Notes: Shaded areas represent systems that are not subject to IDSE requirements.
Sources: (A) Number of systems less than or equal to 40/30 from Exhibit H.3a and H.3b (column F) for only those system size categories that are predicted to have additional
routine monitoring from Stage 1 to Stage 2 (see Exhibit H.8a, column I).
(B) Hours per system required to se ect new sites for Stage 2 based on expert opinion.
(C) Number of systems that qualify for 40/30 certification from Exhibit H.3a and H.3b, column F.
(D) Reporting hours are based on best professional judgement and experience with similar ru es.
(E) Labor rates from Labor Costs for National Drinking Water Rules (USEPA, 2003s) . An 80:20 split between technical and managerial labor rates was assumed,
except for systems serving 500 or fewer people, for which only a technical rate was applied.
Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR
H-15
December 2005

-------
H.4 Developing a Stage 2 Monitoring Plan

This section presents the costs for systems to develop a monitoring plan for the Stage 2 DBPR.
Prior to the beginning of compliance sampling, systems must prepare a monitoring plan describing how
the system intends to comply with the monitoring requirements. The plan must contain the sites where
the samples will be taken, based on data gathered in the IDSE and Stage 1 compliance monitoring, the
month(s) in which samples will be taken, and other information. Surface water systems serving more
than 3,300 people must submit their plans to the State.

For systems that perform the IDSE (SSS or standard monitoring), most of the information in the
monitoring plan is required in the IDSE report. Most of the work required for the monitoring plan will be
consulting with and making modifications suggested by the State/Primacy Agency. Therefore the labor
hours required for the monitoring plan will be less than those required for the IDSE report. EPA assumes
that for the purposes of this EA, the monitoring plans will take half the time estimated for systems to
complete the IDSE report. Very small systems obtaining waivers will not be required to submit a
monitoring plan and therefore do not have a burden. Small NTNCWS which do not receive very small
system waivers will need to update their Stage 1 monitoring plan. A minimal burden of two hours is
assumed for this. Exhibit H.7 displays the burden and costs associated with monitoring plan preparation.

Ground water systems that add chemical disinfection as a result of the Ground Water Rule
(GWR) will have to prepare monitoring plans4. The GWR was proposed in 2000 but has not been
finalized. Therefore, EPA used information from the impact analysis prepared for the proposed GWR EA
(USEPA 2000g) and system inventory data from SDWIS to estimate the number of systems that will add
disinfection as a result of the GWR Assumptions for labor hours for these systems are similar to the
assumptions listed above for other systems subject to the Stage 2 DBPR.
4 EPA assumes that systems adding disinfection for the GWR will have to prepare a monitoring plan and
conduct compliance monitoring. The IDSE requirement, however, will likely be completed before these systems add
disinfection, so this EA does not include costs for newly disinfecting ground water systems to conduct an IDSE.
Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR H-16 December 2005

-------
                          Exhibit H.7 Stage 2  Monitoring Plan Costs for Systems

Size Category





Number
Systems
Performing
IDSE, SSS, or
40/30
Certification


A

Number of
Systems
Receiving
Very Small
System
Waiver or
Small

NTNCWS
B


Systems Adding
Disinfection for
the GWR
Preparing
Monitoring


C


Hours to
Prepare
Stage 2
Monitoring
Plan


D


Hours to
Update
Exisiting
Stage 1
Monitoring
Plan


E


Labor Cost


F


Total Cost


G = F*((A+C)*D
+ B*E)

Total
Burden
(hours)


H = G/F


Total
Burden
(FTEs)


I = H/2080

Surface Water and Mixed CWSs
<500
500-3,300
3,301-9,999
10,000-49,999
50,000-249,999
250,000-999,999
1,000,000-4,999,999
>5M
National Totals
2,060
4,058
2,042
1,773
534
81
17
1
10,566
1,237
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,237
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
5
5
5
10
10
15
20
30
0
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
$ 22.55
$ 24.74
$ 25.34
$ 26.05
$ 28.00
$ 31.26
$ 31.26
$ 31.26

$ 232,182
$ 501,975
$ 258,721
$ 461,867
$ 149,527
$ 37,981
$ 10,628
$ 938
$ 1,653,819
10,298
20,290
10,210
17,730
5,340
1,215
340
30
65,453
4.95
9.75
4.91
8.52
2.57
0.58
0.16
0.01
31.47
Disinfecting Ground Water Only CWSs
<500
500-9,999
10,000-99,999
100,000-499,999
> 500,000
National Totals
752
11,050
1,358
60
6
13,225
17,005
0
0
0
0
17,005
793
237
11
2
0
1,042
5
5
10
15
20
0
2
2
2
2
$ 22.35
$ 24.86
$ 26.05
$ 31.26
$ 31.26

$ 172,612
$ 1,402,853
$ 356,494
$ 28,822
$ 3,735
$ 1,964,515
7,722
56,431
13,685
922
119
78,880
3.71
27.13
6.58
0.44
0.06
37.92
Surface Water and Mixed NTNCWSs
<500
500-3,300
3,301-9,999
10,000-49,999
50,000-249,999
250,000-999,999
1,000,000-4,999,999
>5M
National Totals
-


5
1
-
-
-
6
548
199
24
0
0
0
0
0
771
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
5
5
5
10
10
15
20
30
0
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
$ 22.39
$ 24.74
$ 25.34
$ 26.05
$ 31.26
N/A
N/A
N/A

$
$ 9,847
$ 1,216
$ 1,303
$ 313
$
$
$
$ 12,678
0
398
48
50
10
0
0
0
506
0.00
0.19
0.02
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.24
Disinfecting Ground Water Only NTNCWSs
<500
500-9,999
10,000-99,999
100,000-499,999
> 500,000
National Totals
Grand Totals


3
0
-
4
23,800
4,622
858
0
0
0
5,480
24,493
1,241
268
1
0
0
1,510
2,552
5
5
10
15
20
0
2
2
2
2
$ 22.20
$ 24.76
$ 26.05
$ 31.26
N/A


$ 137,760
$ 75,586
$ 1,247
$ 192
$
$ 214,785
$ 3,845,797
6,205
3,053
48
6
0
9,313
154,152
2.98
1.47
0.02
0.00
0.00
4.48
74.11
Notes:      Detail may not add due to independent rounding.
           1 FTE=2,080 hours (40 hours/week; 52 weeks/year).
Sources:    (A) Exhibit H.1 Column K minus systems receiving small system waivers from column B in this Exhibit.
           (B) From Exhibit H.3a and H.3b, colulmn A minus columns E, F, and G.
           (C) Best estimate based on proposed Ground Water Rule
           (D), (E) Labor hours based on a best professional judgement and experience with similar rules.
           (F) Labor rates from Labor Costs for National Drinking Water Rules (USEPA,  2003s). An 80:20 split between technical and managerial labor rates \
           assumed, except for systems serving 500 or fewer people, for which only a technical rate was applied.
      Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR
H-17
December 2005

-------
H.5 Additional Routine Monitoring

Because systems already sample for the Stage 1 DBPR, costs for additional routine monitoring
are determined by the change in the number of samples collected from the Stage 1 to the Stage 2 DBPR.

The Stage 2 DBPR monitoring requirements are based only on population served and source
water type. The Stage 1 DBPR requirements are based on number of treatment plants per system in
addition to these characteristics. Depending on the number of plants in a given system, the number of
Stage 2 compliance samples required per year can stay the same, decrease, or increase from Stage 1
requirements. For example, if a system has many plants, they must collect compliance samples for each
plant under the Stage 1 DBPR. The sampling requirements for the Stage 2 DBPR, based on population
served and not plants, will likely be lower than for Stage 1 for this system.

Exhibit H.8 summarizes the estimated change in number of samples required and the associated
cost. An explanation of this exhibit is provided in the following paragraphs.

To compare plant-based Stage 1 to population-based Stage 2 monitoring requirements, an
estimate of plants per system is needed for each of the monitoring size categories. Column B in Exhibit
H.8a shows the mean number of plants per system for (1) surface water and all mixed systems, and (2)
disinfecting ground water-only systems. This number is used to transform the system baseline to a plant
baseline in order to calculate number of samples per system for Stage 1. The values are based on analysis
of 2000 CWSS data, question 18.5 EPA used the 2000 CWSS instead of the 1995 CWSS because the
mean number of plants per system is key in defining new population-based monitoring requirements.
EPA believes that the additional analyses needed to derive new estimates using 2000 CWSS data were
warranted in this case. (As shown in Chapter 3 of this EA, all other baseline analyses were performed
with 1995 CWSS data.)

Systems Using One Site to Represent Both High TTHM and HAAS

Column F shows the number of Stage 2 DBPR routine samples required per system. For surface
water systems serving 3,300 or fewer people and disinfecting ground water systems serving fewer than
500 people, one sample is required unless the TTHM and F£AA5 sites are at different locations in the
distribution system. If this is the case, then the system must collect one TTHM sample at the high TTHM
site, and one HAA5 sample at the high HAA5 site, which is equivalent to one dual sample. The only
increase in burden is the extra sample collection time to visit two sites instead of one. (Note that for
surface water systems serving 500 to 3,300 people, samples must be collected every 90 days, resulting in
a total of 4 dual samples per system. Surface and ground water systems serving fewer than 500 people
only have to collect one sample per year, resulting in one dual sample per system as shown in Exhibit
H.8a).

EPA assumes that systems that receive a very small system waiver (i.e., all producing systems,
see Exhibit H.3b) will use one site for high TTHM and HAA5 at the same location. ICR data was used to
estimate the percent of producing systems that need two monitoring sites (instead of one) to represent
both high TTHM and high HAA5 concentrations. For CWSs, EPA evaluated data from the last four
quarters6 of the ICR to estimate the percentage of systems that had their highest TTHM and HAA5 at
5 Systems were considered outliers if their flow data were incomplete or if they had more than 100 entry points, or if
they lacked other data for question 18 and were excluded from the analysis.

6At least 3 of 4 quarters must have TTHM and HAAS data for at 1
HAAS data do not have to be present at the same location, however) for a plant to be included in this analysis.
Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR H-18 December 2005
6At least 3 of 4 quarters must have TTHM and HAAS data for at least 3 of 4 distribution system locations (TTHM and

-------
different locations7 and thus need to monitor at two sites. Results of this analysis show that
approximately 51 percent of surface water and 44 percent of ground water plants have their high TTHM
and HAAS sites at different locations. Therefore the total percent that will monitor at two sites is:

(51%)*(2060))/3297 = 32% for surface water systems serving less than 500 people.

(51%)*(2379)74058 = 30% for surface water systems serving between 500 and 3,300 people.

(44%)*(752)/17756 = 2% for ground water systems serving less than 500 people.

For NTNCWSs, high TTHM and HAA5 concentrations are more likely to be at the same location
because these systems are typically small and have small distribution systems. Thus, EPA believes that
all eligible NTNCWSs (surface water NTNCWSs serving fewer than 10,000 people and ground water
NTNCWSs serving fewer than 500 people) will qualify for reduced sample sites.

Surface water systems serving 3,300 or fewer people and ground water systems serving fewer
than 500 people required to monitor at two sites instead of a single site have an additional hour of labor to
account for travel time to the additional site. However, no additional lab costs are added since the total
number of samples is the same.

Effects of Reduced Monitoring

Both the Stage 1 and Stage 2 DBPRs have a provision for reduced monitoring if compliance
monitoring results are below 40 (ig/L for TTHM and 30 (ig/L for HAA5. Although there may be a slight
decrease in systems qualifying because of the change from RAA to LRAA, other systems may qualify as
they install belter treatment technologies. EPA believes monitoring costs incurred for the reduced
monitoring systems from Stage 1 to Stage 2 are expected to change minimally. This EA does not
calculate costs associated with changes in reduced monitoring status.

Increased Monitoring for Small Systems

Surface water systems serving fewer than 500 people and ground water systems serving fewer
than 10,000 people are only required to monitor once a year. If one of these systems exceeds 80 (ig/L for
TTHM or 60 (ig/L for HAA5, they are not in violation of the maximum contaminant level (MCL)
immediately, but instead must increase their monitoring to quarterly. If quarterly monitoring produces a
locational running annual average (LRAA) above 80 (ig/L for TTHM or 60 (ig/L for HAA5, then they are
in violation of the MCL. If the LRAA is below 60 (ig/L for TTHM or 45 (ig/L for HAA5, the system
may return to annual monitoring. Some systems will incur additional monitoring costs because of this
requirement.

Increased monitoring costs for small systems are not explicitly calculated in this EA because all
systems are assumed to apply an operational safety factor when assessing compliance with MCLs. Thus,
they are not expected to experience concentrations over the MCLs in future years. This is particularly
true for ground water systems since they tend to see less year-to-year variability in source water quality.
Although surface water systems could potentially see higher year-to-year variability and be triggered into
increased monitoring in the future, EPA expects very few systems to be affected.
This was based on the average of four quarters of data for each of four distribution system sites (AVE1, AVE2,
DSE, and MAX for plants with at least three quarters of data). Plants with the highest four quarter HAAS average and
highest four quarter TTHM average occurring at the same location were assumed to be able to qualify for a reduction in
number of monitoring sites under the Stage 2 DBPR.

Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR H-19 December 2005

-------
Calculation of systems which will face changes in sampling burden from Stage 1

       As noted above, systems can face either an increase, decrease, or no change in number of dual
samples required from the Stage 1  DBPR to the Stage 2 DBPR requirements.  Exhibits H.8a through H.8c
are based on national averages. To obtain a better estimate of the number and percent of systems that
would be faced with either increases or decreases in sampling costs, 2000 CWSS data was examined.
First systems with extraordinarily high flow or numbers of entry points were removed from the analysis.
Based on the remaining systems a distribution of the number of treated entry points per system was
calculated. From this point, the number of plants which a system would need to have for its Stage 1
DBPR and Stage 2 DBPR sampling requirements to be the same was calculated.  Then using the
distributions calculated from the 2000 CWSS, the percentage and number of systems with positive and
negative changes in sampling burden from the Stage 1 DBPR to the Stage 2 DBPR was calculated. The
results of this calculation are shown in Exhibit. H.8d.
Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR          H-20                                December 2005

-------
              Exhibit H.8a Additional Routine Monitoring Costs for Systems




Size Category


Total
Systems
A
Stage 1 Sampling

Plants Per
System
B


Total Plants
C = A*B
Routine Dual
Samples per
System
D
Total
Stage 1
Samples
E=C*D
Stage 2 Sampling
Routine Dual
Samples per
System
F
Number of
Stage 2
Samples
G = A*F
Surface Water and Mixed CWSs
<500
500-3,300
3,301-9,999
10,000-49,999
50,000-249,999
250,000-999,999
1 ,000,000-4,999,999
>5M
National Totals
3,297
4,058
2,042
1,773
534
81
17
1
11,803
1.2
1.2
1.6
1.4
1.8
2.5
3.5
3.5

3,989
4,951
3,186
2,429
977
205
60
4
15,800
1
4
4
16
16
16
16
16

3,989
19,803
12,742
38,864
15,636
3,279
960
56
95,330
1
4
8
16
32
48
64
80

3,297
16,232
16,336
28,368
17,088
3,888
1,088
80
86,377
Disinfecting Ground Water Only CWSs
<500
500-9,999
10,000-99,999
100,000-499,999
> 500,000
National Totals
17,756
1 1 ,050
1,358
60
6
30,229
1.0
1.5
3.9
7.3
17.0

17,756
16,795
5,336
438
100
40,426
1
1
4
4
4

17,756
16,795
21,344
1,752
401
58,048
1
2
16
24
32

17,756
22,099
21,724
1,434
189
63,202
Surface Water and Mixed NTNCWSs
<500
500-3,300
3,301-9,999
10,000-49,999
50,000-249,999
250,000-999,999
1 ,000,000-4,999,999
>5M
National Totals
548
199
24
5
1
-
-
-
777
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0

548
199
24
5
1
-
-
-
777
1
4
4
16
16
16
16
16

548
796
96
80
16
-
-
-
1,536
1
4
8
16
32
48
64
80

548
796
192
80
32
-
-
-
1,648
Disinfecting Ground Water Only NTNCWSs
<500
500-9,999
10,000-99,999
100,000-499,999
> 500,000
National Totals
Grand Totals
4,622
858
3
0
-
5,483
48,293
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0


4,622
858
3
0
-
5,483
62,487
1
1
4
4
4


4,622
858
14
1
-
5,495
160,409
1
2
16
24
32


4,622
1,716
56
7
-
6,400
157,627
       Notes:      Detail may not added due to independent rounding.

                  Systems will incur routine monitoring costs only for sites and samples that are required beyond those required under
                  the Stage 1 DBPR (i.e., systems that, as a result of the IDSE, only move sample sites will incur no additional costs).

                  1 FTE = 2,080 hours (40 hours/week; 52 weeks/year).
       Sources:    (A) Number of systems from Exhibit H.1 (column K).
                  (B) Number of plants per system based on 2000 CWSS question 18.
                  (D) Routine samples per plant from the Stage 1 Rule (USEPA 1998a).
                  (F) Number of routine samples per system based on Stage 2 rule requirements (population-based approach). Number
                  of samples may be less for SW systems serving < 5,000 and GW systems serving < 500 if high TTHM and HAAS
                  locations are the same.
Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR
H-21
December 2005

-------
            H.8a Additional  Routine  Monitoring Costs for Systems (continued)







Size Category

Additional
Dual Samples
Required for
Stage 2
Monitoring

H=G-E



Hours
per
Sample

I
Percent of
Systems
with
Separate
TTHM and
HAAS sites

J


Sampling
Cost per
Labor
Hour

K




Cost per
Sample

L


Sampling Costs
Based on
Additional
Monitoring

M = H*(I*K + L)
Additiona
Labor Costs
for Small
Systems
with Two
Sites

N = A*I*J*K





Total Cost

O = M + N



Total
Burden
(Hours)
P=H*I +
A*I*K



Total
Burden
(FTEs)

Q=P/2080
Surface Water and Mixed CWSs
<500
500-3,300
3,301-9,999
10,000-49,999
50,000-249,999
250,000-999,999
1,000,000-4,999,999
>5M
National Totals
(692)
(3,571)
3,594
(10,496)
1,452
609
128
24
(8,953)
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
32%
30%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
$ 22.55
$ 24.74
$ 25.34
$ 26.05
$ 28.00
$ 31.26
$ 31.26
$ 31.26
$ 240
$ 240
$ 240
$ 210
$ 210
$ 210
$ 210
$ 210

$ (181,780)
$ (945,397)
$ 953,611
$ (2,477,619)
$ 345,692
$ 146,956
$ 30,843
$ 5,674
$ (2,122,019)
$ 23,455
$ 29,730
$
$
$
$
$
$
$ 53,185
$ (158,325)
$ (915,667)
$ 953,611
$ (2,477,619)
$ 345,692
$ 146,956
$ 30,843
$ 5,674
$ (2,068,834)
348
(2,369)
3,594
(10,496)
1,452
609
128
24
(6,711)
0
(D
2
(5)
1
0
0
0
(3)
Disinfecting Ground Water Only CWSs
<500
500-9,999
10,000-99,999
100,000-499,999
> 500,000
National Totals
0
5,304
380
(318)
(212)
5,154
1
1
1
1
1
2%
0%
0%
0%
0%
$ 22.35
$ 24.86
$ 26.05
$ 31.26
$ 31.26
$ 240
$ 240
$ 210
$ 210
$ 210

$
$ 1,404,761
$ 89,739
$ (76,712)
$ (51,167)
1,366,621
$ 8,485
$
$
$
$
8,485
$ 8,485
$ 1,404,761
$ 89,739
$ (76,712)
$ (51,167)
1,375,106
380
5,304
380
(318)
(212)
5,534
0
3
0
(0)
(0)
2.66
Surface Water and Mixed NTNCWSs
<500
500-3,300
3,301-9,999
10,000-49,999
50,000-249,999
250,000-999,999
1,000,000-4,999,999
>5M
National Totals
0
0
96
0
16
0
0
0
112
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
$ 22.39
$ 24.74
$ 25.34
$ 26.05
$ 31.26
N/A
N/A
N/A
$ 240
$ 240
$ 240
$ 210
$ 210
$ 210
$ 210
$ 210

$
$
$ 25,473
$
$ 3,860
$
$
$
$ 29,333
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$ 25,473
$
$ 3,860
$
$
$
$ 29,333
-
-
96

16
-


112
-
-
0

0
-


0.05
Disinfecting Ground Water Only NTNCWSs
<500
500-9,999
10,000-99,999
100,000-499,999
> 500,000
National Totals
Grand Totals
0
858
42
6
0
905
(2,781)
1
1
1
1
1
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
$ 22.20
$ 24.76
$ 26.05
$ 31.26
N/A
$ 240
$ 240
$ 210
$ 210
$ 210


$
$ 227,112
$ 9,857
$ 1,399
$
$ 238,369
(487,696)
$
$
$
$
$
$
61,670
$
$ 227,112
$ 9,857
$ 1,399
$
$ 238,369
(426,026)
-
858
42
6
-
905
(160)
-
0
0
0
-
0
(0)
 Notes:      Detail may not added due to independent rounding.
           Systems will incur routine monitoring costs only for sites and samples that are required beyond those required under the Stage 1 DBPR (i.e., systems
           that, as a result of the IDSE, only move sample sites will incur no additional costs).
           FTE = 2,080 hours (40 hours/week; 52 weeks/year).
           1 Columns M and N for SW < 3,300 and GW < 500 adds in an hour extra sampling time for systems which only take 1 dual sample but at two different
           sites. This additional labor is calculated by A*J*K
 Sources:    (I) Labor hours per sample reflects EPA estimate.
           (J) Estimated percent of systems that will have only one sampling site because their high TTHM and HAA5 site occur at the same location based on
           analysis of Information Collection Rule data from 4 distribution system locations .
           (K) Technical labor rates from Labor Costs for National Drinking Water Rules (USEPA, 2003s).
           (L) Laboratory cost for TTHM and HAAS analyses per sample based on costs incurred for the ICR.
Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR
H-22
December 2005

-------
Monitoring for Systems Adding Disinfection to Comply with the Ground Water Rule (GWR)

Some ground water systems that do not currently disinfect may install disinfection to meet the
requirements of the GWR. Because the GWR is expected to be promulgated within 8 months after the
Stage 2 DBPR, EPA expects new systems adding disinfection to meet GWR requirements to
simultaneously achieve compliance with Stage 2 MCLs. Therefore, as discussed in Chapter 3 of this EA,
these systems are not included in the treatment baseline. Also, although these systems will be required to
monitor for the first time under Stage 2, they will not be required to perform an IDSE since they will add
disinfection after the IDSE is required.

Systems that begin to disinfect as a result of the GWR will, however, incur new costs for
collecting and analyzing all of the required Stage 2 DBPR samples. These costs, which are only estimates
and may be different from actual costs depending upon the details of the final GWR, are shown in Exhibit
H.8b. Exhibit H.8c shows the sum of additional routine monitoring for disinfecting systems and new
GWR disinfecting systems (sum of Exhibits H.8a - H.8b). Column A of this exhibit shows the total
change in the number of samples required for each size category between the Stage 1 and Stage 2
compliance monitoring requirements. The rest of the exhibit displays total costs and burdens for Stage 2
DBPR monitoring requirements.
Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR H-23 December 2005

-------
       Exhibit H.8b Additional Routine Monitoring Costs for Systems Installing
                             Disinfectant to Comply with the GWR

Size Category
Number of
Systems
Adding
Disinfectant
for GWR
A

Number of
Samples for
Stage 2 DBPR
B

Hours Per
Sample
C

Sampling
Cost Per
Labor Hour
D

Cost Per
Sample
E

Total Costs
F =
A*B*(C*D+E)

Total
Burden
(Hours)
G = A*B*C

Total
Burden
(FTEs)
H = G/2080
Surface Water and Mixed CWSs
<500
500-3,300
3,301-9,999
10,000-49,999
50,000-249,999
250,000-999,999
1 ,000,000-4,999,999
>5M
National Totals
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
4
8
16
32
48
64
80
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
$ 22.55
$ 24.74
$ 25.34
$ 26.05
$ 28.00
$ 31.26
$ 31.26
$ 31.26

$ 240
$ 240
$ 240
$ 210
$ 210
$ 210
$ 210
$ 210

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Disinfecting Ground Water Only CWSs
<500
500-9,999
10,000-99,999
100,000-499,999
> 500,000
National Totals
793
237
11
2
0
1,042
1
2
16
24
32
1
1
1
1
1
$ 22.35
$ 24.86
$ 26.05
$ 31.26
$ 31.26

$ 240
$ 240
$ 210
$ 210
$ 210

$ 208,026
$ 125,379
$ 40,611
$ 9,834
$ 645
$ 384,494
793
473
172
41
3
1,482
0.38
0.23
0.08
0.02
0.00
0.71
Surface Water and Mixed NTNCWSs
<500
500-3,300
3,301-9,999
10,000-49,999
50,000-249,999
250,000-999,999
1 ,000,000-4,999,999
>5M
National Totals
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-
1
4
8
16
32
48
64
80
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
$ 22.39
$ 24.74
$ 25.34
$ 26.05
$ 31.26
N/A
N/A
N/A

$ 240
$ 240
$ 240
$ 210
$ 210
$ 210
$ 210
$ 210

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Disinfecting Ground Water Only NTNCWSs
<500
500-9,999
10,000-99,999
100,000-499,999
> 500,000
National Totals
Grand Totals
1,241
268
1
0
0
1,510
2,552
1
2
16
24
32
1
1
1
1
1
$ 22.20
$ 24.76
$ 26.05
$ 31.26
N/A


$ 240
$ 240
$ 210
$ 210
$ 210


$ 325,412
$ 141,666
$ 4,938
$ 686
$
$ 472,703
$ 857,197
1,241
535
21
3
-
1,800
3,282
0.60
0.26
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.87
1.58
   Sources:
   (A) Best estimate based on proposed Ground Water Rule
   (B) Number of routine samples per system, Exhibit H.8a Column F. Number of samples may be less for SW systems serving < 5,000 and GW
   systems serving < 500 if high TTHM and HAAS locations are the same.
   (C) Labor hours per sample reflects EPA estimate.
   (D) Technical labor rates from Labor Costs for National Drinking Water Rules (USEPA, 2003s).
   (E) Laboratory cost for TTHM and HAAS analyses per sample based on costs incurred for the ICR.
Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR
H-24
December 2005

-------
                   Exhibit H.8c Total Additional Routine Monitoring Costs





Size Category
Total
Additional
Compliance
Samples per
Year
A



Total Labor
Costs
B


Total
Sampling
Costs
C




Total Costs
D


Total
Burden
(Hours)
E


Total
Burden
(FTEs)
F= E/2080
Surface Water and Mixed CWSs
<500
500-3,300
3,301-9,999
10,000-49,999
50,000-249,999
250,000-999,999
1,000,000-4,999,999
>5M
National Totals
(692)
(3,571)
3,594
(10,496)
1,452
609
128
24
(8,953)
$ 7,844
$ (58,617)
$ 91,070
$ (273,425)
$ 40,671
$ 19,041
$ 3,996
$ 735
$ (168,684)
$ (166,169)
$ (857,050)
$ 862,541
$ (2,204,194)
$ 305,021
$ 127,915
$ 26,846
$ 4,939
$ (1,900,150)
$ (158,325)
$ (915,667)
$ 953,611
$ (2,477,619)
$ 345,692
$ 146,956
$ 30,843
$ 5,674
$ (2,068,834)
348
(2,369)
3,594
(10,496)
1,452
609
128
24
(6,711)
0.17
-1.14
1.73
-5.05
0.70
0.29
0.06
0.01
(3.23)
Disinfecting Ground Water Only CWSs
<500
500-9,999
10,000-99,999
100,000-499,999
> 500,000
National Totals
793
5,777
552
(277)
(209)
6,636
$ 26,209
$ 143,617
$ 14,385
$ (8,665)
$ (6,546)
$ 169,000
$ 190,302
$ 1,386,523
$ 115,964
$ (58,213)
$ (43,976)
$ 1,590,600
$ 216,511
$ 1,530,140
$ 130,349
$ (66,879)
$ (50,522)
$ 1,759,600
1,173
5,777
552
(277)
(209)
7,015
0.56
2.78
0.27
-0.13
-0.10
3.37
Surface Water and Mixed NTNCWSs
<500
500-3,300
3,301-9,999
10,000-49,999
50,000-249,999
250,000-999,999
1,000,000-4,999,999
>5M
National Totals
0
0
96
0
16
-
-
-
112
$ 0
$ 0
$ 2,433
$ 0
$ 500
$
$
$
$ 2,933
$ 0
$ 0
$ 23,040
$ 0
$ 3,360
$
$
$
$ 26,400
$ 0
$ 0
$ 25,473
$ 0
$ 3,860
$
$
$
$ 29,333
0
0
96
0
16
0
0
0
112
0.00
0.00
0.05
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.05
Disinfecting Ground Water Only NTNCWSs
<500
500-9,999
10,000-99,999
100,000-499,999
> 500,000
National Totals
Grand Totals
1,241
1,393
63
9
-
2,705
500
$ 27,552
$ 34,481
$ 1,633
$ 270
$
$ 63,936
$ 67,185
$ 297,860
$ 334,297
$ 13,163
$ 1,815
$
$ 647,135
$ 363,986
$ 325,412
$ 368,779
$ 14,796
$ 2,085
$
$ 711,072
$ 431,171
1,241
1,393
63
9
0
2,705
3,122
0.60
0.67
0.03
0.00
0.00
1.30
1.50
     Note:       (A) Shows the difference in total compliance monitoring samples from Stage 1 to Stage 2 for disinfecting
                systems and systms predicted to install disinfection for the GWR.  For disinfecting systems, derived from
                Exhibit H.8a, column I. For systems installing disinfection for the GWR, derived from Exhibit H.8b, product
                of columns A and B.
     Sources:    (A) sum of column I from Exhibit H.8a and column (A) times column (B) from Exhibit H.8b
                (B) - (E) Summed from tables H.8a - H.8b.
Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR
H-25
December 2005

-------
 Exhibit H.8d  Percentage and Number of Plants with Changes in Sampling Burden




Size Category
SWCWS
<500
500-3,300
3,301-9,999
10,00049,999
50,000-249,999
250,000-999,999
1,000,0004,999,999
15 M
National Totals



Number of
Systems
A
3,297
4,058
2,042
1,773
534
81
17
1
11,803



Plants per
System
B
1.21
1.22
1.56
1.37
1.83
2.53
3.53
3.53
1.3


Stage 1
Samples
per Plant
C
1
4
4
16
16
16
16
16
6.0

Average
Stage 1
Samples per
System
D = B*C
1.2
4.9
6.2
21.9
29.3
40.5
56.5
56.5
8.1

Stage 2
Samples
per
System
E
1
4
8
16
32
48
64
80
7.3
Number of
Plants per
System for No
Change in
Sampling Burden
F = E/C
1
1
2
1
2
3
4
5
1.2
Percent
with
Positive
Sampling
Burden

Percent
with Zero
Sampling
Burden

Percent with
Negative
Sampling
Burden
G H I
0.0%
0.0%
65.6%
0.0%
52.3%
59.2%
44.4%
44.4%
14.2%
GWCWS
<500
500-9,999
10,000-99,999
100,000-499,999
> 500,000
National Totals
17,756
11,050
1,358
60
6
30,229
1
1.52
3.93
7.33
17
1.3
1
1
4
4
4
1.4
1.0
1.5
15.7
29.3
68.0
1.9
1
2
16
24
32
2.1
1
2
4
6
8
1.5
28.3%
62.7%
57.5%
62.6%
33.3%
42.3%
SW NTNCWS
<500
500-3,300
3,301-9,999
10,00049,999
50,000-249,999
250,000-999,999
1,000,0004,999,999
15 M
National Totals
548
199
24
5
1
0
0
0
777
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1.0
1
4
4
16
16
16
16
16
2.0








2.0
1
4
8
16
32
48
64
80
2.1
1
1
2
1
2
3
4
5
1.0
0.0%
0.0%
100.0%
0.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
3.2%
GW NTNCWS
<500
500-9,999
10,000-99,999
100,000-499,999
> 500,000
National Totals
Grand Totals
4,622
858
3
0
0
5,483
48,293
1
1
1
1
1
1.0
1.3
1
1
4
4
4
1.0
2.5





1.0
3.3
1
2
16
24
32
1.2
3.3
1
2
4
6
8
1.2
1.4
0.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
15.7%
31.8%
79.8%
84.8%
19.8%
73.6%
25.0%
23.3%
33.3%
33.3%
67.3%

55.7%
15.8%
17.8%
8.1%
0.0%
39.3%

100.0%
100.0%
0.0%
100.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
96.8%

100.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
84.3%
52.2%
20.2%
15.2%
14.6%
26.4%
22.6%
17.5%
22.2%
22.2%
18.6%
Number
with
Positive
Sampling
Burden
K = G*A
0
0
1,339
0
279
48
8
0.4
1,675

Number
with Zero
Sampling
Burden
L = H*A
2,630
3,441
404
1,304
134
19
6
0.3
7,938
Number
with
Negative
Sampling
Burden
M =I*A
667
617
299
469
121
14
4
0.2
2,190

16.0%
21.5%
24.8%
29.4%
66.7%
18.5%
5,025
6,928
780
37
2
12,772
9,889
1,742
241
5
0
11,877
2,843
2,379
336
18
4
5,580

0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0
0
24
0
1
0
0
0
25
548
199
0
5
0
0
0
0
752
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
16.1%
0
858
3
0
0
862
15,333
4,622
0
0
0
0
4,622
25,189
0
0
0
0
0
0
7,771
 Note:
 Sources:
        (A) Exhibit H.8a column A
        (B) Average number of plants per system based on 2000 CWSS question 18.
        (C) Routine samples per plant from the Stage 1 Rule (USEPA 1998a).
        (E) Number of routine samples per system based on Stage 2 rule requirements (population-based
        approach). Number of samples may be less for SW systems serving < 5,000 and GW systems
        serving < 500 if high TTHM and HAAS locations are the same.
        (G), (H), (I) Based on analyisis of 2000 CWSS question 18.
H.6    National Costs for Operational Evaluations

        This section discusses the national costs of exceeding operational evaluation levels and the
benefits that may occur by reducing them after implementing the Stage 2 DBPR.

        •    Section H.6.1 defines an operational evaluation.

        •    Section H.6.2 describes the evaluation procedure for systems that exceed operational
            evaluation levels.

            Section H.6.3 presents the costs associated with operational evaluations and the estimated
            number of systems affected.

        •    Section H.6.4 explains the benefits of operational evaluation requirements.
Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR
H-26
December 2005

-------
H.6.1  Definition of "Operational Evaluation Level"

       Although the Stage 2 DBPR is expected to reduce the number and level of peak DBF events, EPA
recognizes that levels above 80 |-lg/L for TTHM and 60 |-lg/L for HAAS may still occur, even when
systems are in full compliance with MCLs.  An exceedance of the operational evaluation level is defined
as a sample result, when multiplied by 2 and added to the previous two quarters and then divided by 4,
that gives an LRAA over 80 |o,g/L for TTHM or 60 |o,g/L for HAAS.  For example, if a system had a
current quarter result of 100 |o,g/L and had first and second quarter TTHM results of 70 |o,g/L, the resulting
calculation gives:
       (2* (100 ng/L) + 70 ng/L + 70 ng/L)/4 = 85

Therefore, an exceedance of the operational evaluation level would result from the above scenario.


H.6.2  System Requirements for Operational Evaluations

       If a system exceeds an operational evaluation level, it must conduct a operational evaluation and
submit a written report to the  State no later than 90 days after being notified of the analytical result that
exceeded the operational evaluation level.  The evaluation must include an examination of system
treatment and distribution operational practices, including storage tank operations, excess storage
capacity, distribution system flushing, changes in sources or source water quality, and treatment
technology changes or problems that may contribute to TTHM and HAAS formation and what steps could
be considered to minimize future excursions.

       Exceeding an operational evaluation level, as defined in section H.6.1, is not a violation of the
Stage 2 DBPR and does not require any public notification or explanation in Consumer Confidence
Reports (CCR). Systems are not required to take any action to  reduce DBP concentrations as a result of
exceeding operational evaluation levels; however, reducing peaks is a primary objective of the Stage 2
DBPR and is an important goal in providing safe drinking water.  EPA is providing guidance to systems
on operational alternatives to  reduce DBP peaks in the distribution system.


H.6.3  Cost Implications of Exceeding Operational Evaluation Levels

       Each time an operational evaluation level is exceeded,  it is expected to result in some labor costs
for systems to evaluate the exceedance and prepare the operational evaluation report.  To determine
national costs for operational  evaluations, this section presents  an estimate of: (1) the percent of all
sampling locations exceeding Stage 2 DBPR operational evaluation levels, and (2) the burden for each
operational evaluation.

Percent of Locations  That Are Peaks and Per cent of Systems Experiencing Peaks

       EPA examined ICR data to estimate the number of systems that might exceed an operational
evaluation level.  Because the ICR data were taken before both Stage 1 and Stage 2 requirements were in
place, the data had to be adjusted to reflect changes that plants would make to meet Stage  1 and Stage 2
MCLs. EPA developed a method called the ICR matrix method, which is described in detail in Chapter 5
of this EA, to adjust the data.

       Post-Stage 2 predicted occurrence  of TTHM and HAAS concentrations were evaluated to assess
the potential frequency of operational evaluation level exceedances. Because the predicted occurrence
was only based on 1 year of data, alternative sequences of samples were evaluated.  For example, EPA

Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR          H-27                                December 2005

-------
checked whether the 3rd quarter results would exceed an operational evaluation level following the 1st and
2nd quarter results. Next, EPA checked whether the 3rd quarter results would exceed an operational
evaluation level following the 4th and 1st quarter results and the 4th and 2nd quarter results. This process
continued until all possible combinations of quarters had been examined. However, no more than one
excursion occurred for any given sample location. For each system size category, the number of
exceedances of operational evaluation levels were estimated as a percent of locations exceeding these
levels. The percent for each category was multiplied by the adjusted number of locations in that category
to determine the total number of locations exceeding operational evaluation levels.

Individual monitoring locations were evaluated instead of plants so that the results could be
extrapolated to systems with a different number of sites per system than the plants participating in the
ICR. The 10 percent safety factor was chosen for the cost analysis for this rule activity, to more
conservatively reflect the possibility of year to year variability from the ICR data. Exhibit H.9 displays
the results of the analysis.
Exhibit H.9 Predicted Occurrence of Exceeding Operational Evaluation Levels in
Large Systems

System
Type

Number of
Locations
Evaluated
A

Number of Locations
exceeding Operation
Evaluational Levels
B
% of Locations
exceeding
Operational
Evaluation
Levels
C = B/A
Post-Stage 2
GW
SW
All
327
851
1,178
0
12
12
0.00%
1.41%
1.02%
Sources: (A) - (B) Analysis of Post-Stage 2 ICR data, developed using the ICR matrix
method defined in Ch. 5.
To estimate the total number of operational evaluation level exceedances that will occur
nationally, EPA assumed that results of the ICR location analysis represent, as a whole, the probability
that any one treated-water location meeting the Stage 2 requirements will exceed an operational
evaluation level. Those single-location probabilities are 1.4 percent (12/851) and 0 percent (0/327) for
surface water and ground water sampling locations, respectively. EPA used the following procedure to
calculate the probability of finding an operational evaluation level exceedance in 1 year. Assuming
independence from one location to the next, EPA calculated the probability of at least one exceedance
occurring for N locations from l-(l-p)N, where p is the probability of observing a peak. In this
calculation, (1-p) is the probability of not observing an operational evaluation level exceedance in any
one location, and (l-p)N is the probability of not observing an exceedance after N locations. For example,
it can be estimated that a surface water system monitoring at 4 locations has a probability of (1-0.0141)4 =
0.9448 of not observing an operational evaluation level exceedance. Therefore, the probability of
observing at least one exceedance is simply 1 minus that value, or 1 - 0.9448 = 0.0552 (5.52 percent).
EPA used this approach to estimate the probability of observing an operational evaluation level
exceedance in surface and ground water systems, as shown in Exhibit H. 10. EPA assumed that two
exceedances in a given location would not occur since systems are expected to address problems
identified in the operational evaluation, making a recurrence unlikely.
Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR
H-28
December 2005

-------
       The same percentages used for large systems were also used to estimate the occurrence of
operational evaluation level exceedances for small and medium systems.  EPA assumed that NTNCWSs
would not exceed operational evaluation levels since these systems typically have very small distribution
systems and have less variability in TTHM/HAA5 levels.

Exhibit H.10 Number of Locations and Systems Exceeding Operational Evaluation
                                          Levels





Size
Category




No. of
Systems
A


No. of Stage 2
Monitoring
Locations/
System
B
Percent of
Locations that
exceed
Operational
Evaluation
Levels
C


Estimated Number of
Locations/Year that
exceed Operational
Evaluation Levels
D = Round [A*B*C]

Percent of
Systems that do
not exceed
Operational
Evaluation Levels
E = (1-C)B

Percent of Systems
with atleast one
exceedance of
Operational Evaluation
Levels/yr
F = 1-E

Predicted No. of
Systems with atleast
one exceedance of
Operational Evaluation
Levels/yr
G = Round [A*F]
Surface Water and Mixed CWSs
<500
500-3,300
3,301-9,999
10,000-49,999
50,000-249,999
250,000-999,999
1,000,000-4,999,999
>5M
National Totals
3,297
4,058
2,042
1,773
534
81
17
1
11,803
1
1
4
8
16
24
32
40

0.4%
0.7%
0.7%
1.4%
1.4%
1.4%
1.4%
1.4%

12
28
57
199
120
27
8
1
452
99.65%
99.30%
97.23%
89.33%
79.68%
71.12%
63.48%
56.66%
0.3%
0.7%
2.8%
10.7%
20.3%
28.9%
36.5%
43.3%

12
28
57
189
109
23
6
0
424
Disinfecting Ground Water Only CWSs
<500
500-9,999
10,000-99,999
100,000-499,999
> 500,000
National Totals
17,756
11,050
1,358
60
6
30,229
1
2
6
8
12

0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

-
-
-
-
-
-
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

0
0
0
0
0
0
Surface Water and Mixed NTNCWSs
<500
500-3,300
3,301-9,999
10,000-49,999
50,000-249,999
250,000-999,999
1,000,000-4,999,999
>5M
National Totals
548
199
24
5
1
-


777
1
1
4
8
16
24
32
40

0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Disinfecting Ground Water Only NTNCWSs
<500
500-9,999
10,000-99,999
100,000-499,999
> 500,000
National Totals
Grand Totals
4,622
858
3
0

5,483
48,293
1
2
6
8
12


0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%


-
-
-
-
-
-
452
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%


0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%


0
0
0
0
0
0
424
Notes: Detail may not add to totals due to independent rounding.
Sources: (A) Exhibit H.1, Column K.
(B) Stage 2 DBPR sample requirements presented in Chapter 1. Data shown are the total number of locations required per year.
(C) Exhibit H.9, column I for 10% safety factor.
Level of Effort Required for Operational Evaluations

       EPA estimates that systems will spend 2 to 16 hours to perform an operational evaluation,
depending on system size (large systems with more complex distribution systems are expected to spend
16 hours per exceedance, while small systems with simpler distribution systems are expected to spend 2
hours per exceedance).  There may be reduced effort for systems that experience more than one
Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR
H-29
December 2005

-------
exceedance of operational evaluation levels yearly; however, this effect could not be quantified. EPA
also expects the rate of exceedances to decrease over time as systems begin identifying the cause and
working with their States/Primacy Agencies to reduce future exceedances.

Other Cost Implications

Although systems are not required to make changes as a result of exceeding operational
evaluation levels, they may still decide to change their operations to reduce the likelihood of future
exceedances of operational evaluation levels and potential MCL violations. These changes can range
from minimal to significant depending on the nature of the solution and size of the system. Because
changes are not required by EPA, the costs for responding to exceedances of operational evaluation levels
are not included as part of the national costs of the Stage 2 DBPR; however, examples of typical system-
level costs are provided below to show potential implications.

Systems have a number of operational and distribution system modification options available to
reduce DBP concentrations and eliminate exceedances of operational evaluation levels. If a system
determines that a storage tank is the cause of an exceedance, it may be possible to implement operational
changes, such as lengthening drain/fill cycles or increasing the frequency of drain/fill cycles, to improve
tank mixing. A system may also consider decommissioning excess storage, or maintaining excess storage
for emergency use only. Generally, these options will require minimal additional expenditures by the
system; however, in some cases their feasibility may depend on system pressure requirements. When
excess storage is to be maintained for emergency use only, it is still important to maintain water quality in
the storage tank. This may require periodic manual disinfection (i.e., addition of calcium hypochlorite
tablets) to prevent significant microbiological activity in the storage tank. This can involve some
chemical cost (chlorination tablets are available for about $65 per 25 pounds), as well as additional labor
cost (e.g., a few hours for a two-person crew). When excess storage is to be maintained for emergency
use only, it is important to adequately flush the system after the tank has been used.

If operational modifications fail to improve tank water quality, it may be necessary to make
inlet/outlet piping modifications, install baffles, or add a recirculation system to improve tank mixing.
The costs for these types of improvements are widely variable and depend on the size and configuration
of the existing tank. For example, capital costs for modifications to inlet/outlet piping in six standpipes (2
million gallon (MG) to 4 MG capacity) may range from $78,000 to $94,000 for one system. Costs for
modifications to elevated tanks (all 1 MG capacity) may range from $19,000 to $90,000 for the same
system. These costs do not include the installation of sample probes and temperature sensors used to
verify proper tank mixing (estimated at $34,000 per tank including tie-in to an existing Supervisory
Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system).

Another operational option available to systems is the use of flushing and blow-offs in high
residence-time areas. Costs for these options can vary significantly from system to system depending on
size, amount of labor involved, and if system modifications are required. Some large systems employ one
or more flushing crews, whose sole responsibility is to flush system dead ends. For a two-person crew at
a labor rate of $25 per hour (including fringe benefits), a system would incur a cost of over $100,000 per
year. Assuming installation of a fire hydrant as a conservative estimate, the cost to add a dead end blow-
off or flushing station could be $8,000 or more (RS Means 1999). Where runoff from blow-offs or
flushing locations contains chloramines and may enter open waterways, neutralization of chloraminated
discharges will be necessary. This can be done by laying burlap sacks filled with ammonium sulfate or
sodium sulfite in the path of the runoff. Water losses may also be a concern in water scarce regions. The
costs associated with water losses are system specific and no attempt has been made to quantify them
here.
Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR H-30 December 2005

-------
                             Exhibit H.11  Operational Evaluation Costs



Size
Category
Estimated No. of
Locations/yr that
exceed Operational
Evaluation Levels
A

Reporting Hours
per Operational
Evaluation
B


Cost per
Labor Hour
C



Total Cost
D = A*B*C


Total Burden
(Hours)
E = A*B


Total Burden
(FTEs)
F=E/2,080
Surface Water and Mixed CWSs
<500
500-3,300
3,301-9,999
10,000-49,999
50,000-249,999
250,000-999,999
1 ,000,000-4,999,999
>5M
National Totals
12
28
57
199
120
27
8
1
452
6
12
12
16
16
16
16
16
$ 22.55
$ 24.74
$ 30.51
$ 31.08
$ 32.64
$ 35.25
$ 35.25
$ 35.25

$ 1,623
$ 8,313
$ 20,870
$ 98,959
$ 62,671
$ 15,227
$ 4,512
$ 564
$ 212,739
72
336
684
3,184
1,920
432
128
16
6772
0.0
0.2
0.3
1.5
0.9
0.2
0.1
0.0
3.3
Disinfecting Ground Water Only CWSs
<500
500-9,999
10,000-99,999
100,000-499,999
> 500,000
National Totals
-
-
-
-
-
-
6
12
16
16
16
$ 22.35
$ 24.86
$ 31.08
$ 35.25
$ 35.25

$
$
$
$
$
$
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Surface Water and Mixed NTNCWSs
<500
500-3,300
3,301-9,999
10,000-49,999
50,000-249,999
250,000-999,999
1 ,000,000-4,999,999
>5M
National Totals
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
6
12
12
16
16
16
16
16
$ 22.39
$ 24.74
$ 30.51
$ 31.08
$ 35.25




$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Disinfecting Ground Water Only NTNCWSs
<500
500-9,999
10,000-99,999
100,000-499,999
> 500,000
National Totals
Grand Totals
-
-
-
-
-
-
452
2
2
3
3
3


$ 22.20
$ 24.76
$ 31.08
$ 35.25



$
$
$
$
$
$
$ 212,739
-
-
-
-
-
-
6,772
-
-
-
-
-
-
3.3
      Notes:     Detail may not add to totals due to independent rounding.
                1 FTE = 2,080 hours (40 hours/week; 52 weeks/year).
      Sources:   (A) Exhibit H.10, column D.
                (B) Hours estimated by EPA to complete Operational Evaluations. EPA expects it to take less time for small systems given
                they have simpler distribution systems.
                (C) Labor rates from the Labor Costs for National Drinking Water Rules (USEPA, 2003s) . An 80:20 split between technical
                and managerial labor rates was assumed, except for systems serving 500 or fewer people, for which only a technical rate
                was applied.
Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR
H-31
December 2005

-------
If long residence times in distribution system dead ends are the source of an exceedance of an
operational evaluation level, then systems may be able to improve flow in dead-end areas and reduce
water residence time by "looping" dead ends together. For looping to be effective, it is critical that
sufficient demand exists in the looped area to create a flow pattern that eliminates the dead end, rather
than creating a larger one. The costs associated with looping will vary from system to system, depending
on the size and length of pipe involved. Based on cost data presented in RS Means (1999), the cost for
looping may range from $3,500 per 100 feet for a 6-inch line to $20,000 per 100 feet for a 24-inch line.

Variability from system to system makes it difficult to quantify the possible costs associated
with operational evaluation remedies. The most effective option will vary from system to system, as will
the costs for similar types of improvements.
H.6.4 Benefits Implications of the Operational Evaluation Requirements

As discussed in detail in Chapter 5 of this EA, a primary objective of the Stage 2 DBPR is to
reduce peak DBF occurrence, thereby reducing potential adverse developmental and reproductive health
effects and cancers associated with DBFs. Although systems are not required to make changes in
response to significant DBF excursions, EPA believes that the requirement to perform an operational
evaluation will encourage attention to peak events and foster better understanding of peak TTHM and
HAAS occurrence in the distribution system.
H.7 Summary of Systems Costs for Non-Treatment-Related Rule Activities

This section summarizes the estimated number of systems performing various rule activities
and their associated costs, derived previously in sections H.2 through H.6. Exhibit H. 12a shows the
number of systems performing each rule activity, and Exhibit H. 12b shows the number of systems that
will add disinfection for the GWR performing each rule activity. Exhibit H. 13 shows costs for both the
baseline systems and the GWR systems. The estimates in Exhibits H. 12a, H. 12b, and H. 13 are broken
out by the Stage 2 DBPR monitoring size categories. To combine system and cost breakouts with
comparable treatment costs (derived in Chapter 7 of this EA), the results in Exhibits H.12 and H.13 were
transformed into EPA's standard nine system size categories. Exhibit H. 14 (the baseline adjustment
matrix) shows the percentage of systems from each of the Stage 2 DBPR monitoring size categories that
is in each of EPA's nine standard size categories (see section H.I for an additional description of this
calculation). Data in Exhibit H.I4 are derived from SDWIS 4th Quarter Frozen Database (USEPA 2003t).
EPA multiplied the results from Exhibits H. 12 and H. 13 by the baseline adjustment matrix in Exhibit
H.14 to produce system and cost results in EPA's nine standard size categories (Exhibits H.15a, H.15b,
and H. 16).
Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR H-32 December 2005

-------
 Exhibit H.12a Systems Performing Various Rule Activities, by Stage 2 Monitoring
                                              Size Categories
System Size
(Population Served)
Baseline No. of
Systems
A
Implementation
B = A
IDSE
C
Stage 2
Monitoring
Plans
D
Additional Routine
Monitoring
E
Operational
Evaluations
F
Surface Water and Mixed CWSs
<500
500-3,300
3,301-9,999
10,000-49,999
50,000-249,999
250,000-999,999
1,000,000-4,999,999
>5M
National Totals
3,297
4,058
2,042
1,773
534
81
17
1
11,803
3,297
4,058
2,042
1,773
534
81
17
1
11,803
2,060
3,823
1,888
1,524
436
63
14
1
9,809
2,060
4,058
2,042
1,773
534
81
17
1
10,566
0
0
2,042
0
534
81
17
1
2,675
12
28
57
189
109
23
6
0
424
Disinfecting Ground Water Only CWSs
<500
500-9,999
10,000-99,999
100,000-499,999
> 500,000
National Totals
17,756
11,050
1,358
60
6
30,229
17,756
11,050
1,358
60
6
30,229
752
1,956
240
18
1
2,966
752
11,050
1,358
60
6
13,225
0
11,050
1,358
0
0
12,407
0
0
0
0
0
0
Surface Water and Mixed NTNCWSs
<500
500-3,300
3,301-9,999
10,000-49,999
50,000-249,999
250,000-999,999
1,000,000-4,999,999
>5M
National Totals
548
199
24
5
1
0
0
0
777
548
199
24
5
1
0
0
0
777
-


4
1
0
0
0
5
0
0
0
5
1
0
0
0
6
0
0
24
0
1
0
0
0
25
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Disinfecting Ground Water Only NTNCWSs
<500
500-9,999
10,000-99,999
100,000-499,999
> 500,000
National Totals
Grand Totals
4,622
858
3
0
0
5,483
48,293
4,622
858
3
0
0
5,483
48,293
-
-
1
0
0
1
12,780
0
0
3
0
0
4
23,800
0
858
3
0
0
862
15,969
0
0
0
0
0
0
424
 Note:
                         Detail may not add due to independent rounding.
 Sources:
Non-treatment-Related Rule Activities, in addition to those shown in the table, also include routine compliance
monitoring. Some systems are expected to take more samples and some are expected to take less from Stage 1 to
Stage 2 depending on the number of plants in their systems. Overall, the Stage 2 DBPR results in an increase in the
total number of compliance samples taken from the Stage 1  DBPR. See Exhibit H.8a for column I, for the change in
total samples for different system size categories.
(A) and (B) Exhibit H.1 (column K).
(C)Exhibits H.3a and b (column E).
(D) Exhibit H.7 (column A).
(E) Exhibit H.8a (column A).
(F) Exhibit H.10 (column  G).
Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR
                             H-33
December 2005

-------
      Exhibit H.12b Non-Treatment Related Rule Activities for Systems Adding
                           Disinfection to Comply with the GWR

System Size
(Population Served)

Baseline No. of
Systems Adding
Disinfectant for the
GWR
A

Number Preparing
Stage 2
Monitoring Plans
B

Percent
Preparing
Monitoring
Plans
C = B/A
Number
Performing
Additional
Routine
Monitoring
D

Percent Performing
Additional Routine
Monitoring
E = D/A
Surface Water and Mixed CWSs
<500
500-3,300
3,301-9,999
10,000-49,999
50,000-249,999
250,000-999,999
1 ,000,000-4,999,999
>5M
National Totals
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%

Disinfecting Ground Water Only CWSs
<500
500-9,999
10,000-99,999
100,000-499,999
> 500,000
National Totals
793
237
11
2
0
1,042
793
237
11
2
0
1,042
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%

793
237
11
2
0
1,042
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%

Surface Water and Mixed NTNCWSs
<500
500-3,300
3,301-9,999
10,000-49,999
50,000-249,999
250,000-999,999
1,000,000-4,999,999
>5M
National Totals
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0
Disinfecting Ground Water Only NTNCWSs
<500
500-9,999
10,000-99,999
100,000-499,999
> 500,000
National Totals
Grand Total
1,241
268
1
0
0
1,510
2,552
1,241
268
1
0
0
1,510
2,552
100%
100%
100%
100%
0%


1,241
268
1
0
0
1,510
2,552
100%
100%
100%
100%
0%


    Note:
    Sources:
Detail may not add due to independent rounding.
Non-treatment-Related Rule Activities, in addition to those
shown in the table, include routine compliance monitoring for
all systems.
(A) Exhibit 8.b
(B) Exhibits H.7 (column C).
(D) Exhibit H.8b (column A).
Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR
                       H-34
December 2005

-------
       Exhibit H.13 Non-Treatment Cost Summary, by Stage 2 Monitoring Size
                                              Categories

System Size
(PopulationServed)

Implementation
A

IDSE
B

Stage 2 Monitoring Plans
C
Additional Routine
Monitoring
D
Operational
Evaluations
E
Surface Water and Mixed CWSs
<500
500-3,300
3,301-9,999
10,000-49,999
50,000-249,999
250,000-999,999
1 ,000,000-4,999,99
35M
National Totals
$ 743,375
$ 1,003,949
$ 623,055
$ 1,212,306
$ 383,467
$ 68,522
$ 14,381
$ 846
$ 4,049,902
$ 1,360,071
$ 8,670,108
$ 8,379,826
$ 17,851,398
$ 10,274,027
$ 2,265,622
$ 671,771
$ 59,594
$ 49,532,418
$ 232,182
$ 501,975
$ 258,721
$ 461,867
$ 149,527
$ 37,981
$ 10,628
$ 938
$ 1,653,819
$ (158,325)
$ (915,667)
$ 953,611
$ (2,477,619)
$ 345,692
$ 146,956
$ 30,843
$ 5,674
$ (2,068,834)
$ 1,623
$ 8,313
$ 20,870
$ 98,959
$ 62,671
$ 15,227
$ 4,512
$ 564
$ 212,739
Disinfecting Ground Water Only CWSs
<500
500-9,999
10,000-99,999
100,000-499,999
> 500,000
National Totals
$ 3,572,101
$ 2,472,179
$ 886,174
$ 44,241
$ 4,361
$ 6,979,054
$ 495,114
$ 5,339,608
$ 1,824,904
$ 160,973
$ 11,929
$ 7,832,529
$ 172,612
$ 1,402,853
$ 356,494
$ 28,822
$ 3,735
$ 1,964,515
$ 216,511
$ 1,530,140
$ 130,349
$ (66,879)
$ (50,522)
$ 1,759,600
-
-
$
$
$
$
Surface Water and Mixed NTNCWSs
<500
500-3,300
3,301-9,999
10,000-49,999
50,000-249,999
250,000-999,999
1 ,000,000-4,999,99
35M
National Totals
$ 110,450
$ 44,309
$ 6,591
$ 3,263
$ 740
$
$
$
$ 165,353
$
$
$
$ 46,876
$ 23,725
$
$
$
$ 70,601
$
$ 9,847
$ 1,216
$ 1,303
$ 313
$
$
$
$ 12,678
$
$
$ 25,473
$
$ 3,860
$
$
$
$ 29,333
$
$
-
-
$
$
$
$
$
Disinfecting Ground Water Only NTNCWSs
<500
500-9,999
10,000-99,999
100,000-499,999
> 500,000
National Totals
Grand Totals
$ 923,423
$ 191,118
$ 2,271
$ 215
$
$ 1,117,027
$ 12,311,336
$
$
$ 932
$
$
$ 932
$ 57,436,480
$ 137,760
$ 75,586
$ 1,247
$ 192
$
$ 214,785
$ 3,845,797
$ 325,412
$ 368,779
$ 14,796
$ 2,085
$
$ 711,072
$ 431,171
$
$
-
-
$
$
$ 212,739
 Notes:          Detail may not add to totals due to independent rounding.
                Costs for Stage 2 monitoring plans and additional routine monitoring include those costs for systems that are projected to add
                disinfection to comply with the GWR.
 Sources:        (A) Exhibit H.2 (column E).
                (B) Sum of Exhibit H.4 (column I)  , Exhibit H.5 (column F), and H.6(column F).
                (C) Exhibit H.7 (column G).
                (D) Exhibit H.8c  (column D).
                (E) Exhibit H.11 (Column D).
Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR
H-35
December 2005

-------
  Exhibit H.14 Baseline Adjustment Matrix from Stage 2 Monitoring Categories to
                            Standard Nine Categories
Stage 2 Monitoring
Size Categories
(Population Served)
Standard Size Categories (Population Served)
<100
100-499
500-999
1 ,000-3,299
3,300-9,999
10,000-49,999
50,000-99,999
100,000-999,999
> 1 ,000,000
SW-CWS
<500
500-3,300
3,301-9,999
10,000-49,999
50,000-249,999
250,000-999,999
1 ,000,000-4,999,999
>5M
32.9%







67.1%








36.2%







63.8%








100.0%








100.0%








62.5%







37.5%
100.0%








100.0%
100.0%
SW-NTNCWS
<500
500-3,300
3,301-9,999
10,000-49,999
50,000-249,999
250,000-999,999
1 ,000,000-4,999,999
>5M
42.2%







57.8%








53.3%







46.7%








100.0%








100.0%








0.0%







100.0%
100.0%








100.0%
100.0%
Stage 2 Monitoring
Categories (Population
Served)
Standard Size Categories (Population Served)
<100
100-499
500-999
1,000-3,299
3,300-9,999
10,000-49,999
50,000-99,999
100,000-999,999
> 1,000,000
GW-CWS
<500
500-9,999
10,000-99,999
100,000-499,999
>500,000
44.7%




55.3%





36.2%




43.9%




19.9%





90.0%




10.0%





100.0%
50.0%




50.0%
GW-NTNCWS
<500
500-9,999
10,000-99,999
100,000-499,999
>500,000
53.9%




46.1%





68.7%




28.8%




2.5%





91.7%




8.3%





100.0%






Source: SDWIS 2003 4th quarter frozen database (USEPA 2003t)
Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR
H-36
December 2005

-------
                 Exhibit H.15a Systems Performing Various  Rule Activities,
                                    Standard Nine  Size Categories
System Size
(Population Served)
Baseline Number
of Systems
A
Implemen-
tation
B=A
IDSE
C
Stage 2
Monitoring
Plans
D
Operational
Evaluations
E
Surface Water and Mixed CWSs
<100
100-499
500-999
1,000-3,299
3,300-9,999
10,000-49,999
50,000-99,999
100,000-999,999
> 1,000,000
National Totals
1,085
2,212
1,470
2,588
2,042
1,773
334
281
18
11,803
1,085
2,212
1,470
2,588
2,042
1,773
334
281
18
11,803
678
1,382
1,385
2,438
1,888
1,524
273
226
15
9,809
678
1,382
1,470
2,588
2,042
1,773
334
281
18
10,566
4
8
10
18
57
189
68
64
6
424
Disinfecting Ground Water Only CWSs
<100
1 00-499
500-999
1,000-3,299
3,300-9,999
10,000-49,999
50,000-99,999
100,000-999,999
> 1,000,000
National Totals
7,935
9,821
3,998
4,852
2,200
1,222
136
63
3
30,229
7,935
9,821
3,998
4,852
2,200
1,222
136
63
3
30,229
336
416
708
859
389
216
24
18
0
2,966
336
416
3,998
4,852
2,200
1,222
136
63
3
13,225
-
-

-

-

-

-
Surface Water and Mixed NTNCWSs
<100
1 00-499
500-999
1,000-3,299
3,300-9,999
10,000-49,999
50,000-99,999
100,000-999,999
> 1,000,000
National Totals
231
317
106
93
24
5

1
-
777
231
317
106
93
24
5

1
-
777

-

-

4

1
-
5

-

-

5

1
-
6

-

-

-


-
-
Disinfecting Ground Water Only NTNCWSs
<100
100-499
500-999
1,000-3,299
3,300-9,999
10,000-49,999
50,000-99,999
100,000-999,999
> 1,000,000
National Totals
Grand Totals
2,493
2,129
589
247
21
3
0
0
-
5,483
48,293
2,493
2,129
589
247
21
3
0
0
-
5,483
48,293
-

-

-
1
0
0
-
1
12,780
-

-

-
3
0
0
-
4
23,800
-

-

-

-

-
-
424
Additional Routine
Monitoring
F

-

-

2,042

334
281
18
2,675

-
-
3,998
4,852
2,200
1,222
136
-

12,407


-

-
24
-

1
-
25

-

589
247
21
3
0
0
-
862
15,969
 Notes:  Detail may not add to totals due to independent rounding.
      Non-treatment-Related Rule Activities, in addition to those shown in the table, also include routine compliance
      monitoring. Some systems are expected to take more samples and some are expected to take less from Stage 1 to
      Stage 2 depending on the number of plants in their systems. Overall, the Stage 2 DBPR results in an increase in the
      total number of compliance samples taken from the Stage 1 DBPR. See Exhibit H.8a for column I, for the change in
      total samples for different system size categories.

 Source: Derived by multiplying results in H.13 by the baseline adjustment matrix in H.14.
Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR
H-37
December 2005

-------
       Exhibit H.15b Non-Treatment Related Rule Activities for Systems Adding
          Disinfection to Comply with the GWR, Standard  Nine Size Categories
System Size
(Population Served)
Baseline Number of Systems
Adding Disinfectant for the
GWR
A
Number Preparing
Stage 2 Monitoring
Plans
B
Percent Preparing
Monitoring Plans
C= B/A
Surface Water and Mixed CWSs
<100
100-499
500-999
1,000-3,299
3,300-9,999
10,000-49,999
50,000-99,999
100,000-999,999
> 1,000,000
National Totals
Disinfecting Ground Water On
<100
100-499
500-999
1,000-3,299
3,300-9,999
10,000-49,999
50,000-99,999
100,000-999,999
> 1,000,000
National Totals









-









-










yCWSs
354
439
86
104
47
10
1
2
0
1,042
354
439
86
104
47
10
1
2
0
1,042
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%

Surface Water and Mixed NTNCWSs
<100
100-499
500-999
1,000-3,299
3,300-9,999
10,000-49,999
50,000-99,999
100,000-999,999
> 1,000,000
National Totals
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-

-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-

-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-


Disinfecting Ground Water Only NTNCWSs
<100
100-499
500-999
1,000-3,299
3,300-9,999
10,000-49,999
50,000-99,999
100,000-999,999
> 1,000,000
National Totals
Grand Totals
669
572
184
77
7
1
0
0

1,510
2,552
669
572
184
77
7
1
0
0

1,510
2,552
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
0%


Number Performing
Additional Routine
Monitoring
D
Percent Performing
Additional Routine
Monitoring
E










-











354
439
86
104
47
10
1
2
0
1,042
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%


-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-

-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-



669
572
184
77
7
1
0
0

1,510
2,552
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
0%


 Notes: Detail may not add to totals due to independent rounding.
     Non-treatment-Related Rule Activities, in addition to those shown in the table, also include routine compliance
     monitoring. Some systems are expected to take more samples and some are expected to take less from Stage
     1 to Stage 2 depending on the number of plants in their systems. Overall, the Stage 2 DBPR results in an
     increase in the total number of compliance samples taken from the Stage 1 DBPR. See Exhibit H.8a for column
     I, for the change in total samples for different system size categories.

 Source: Derived  by multiplying results in H.12b by the baseline adjustment matrix in H.14.
Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR
H-38
December 2005

-------
                         Exhibit H.16 Non-Treatment Cost Summary,
                                  Standard Nine Size Categories
System Size
(Population Served)
Implementation
A
IDSE
B
Stage 2 Monitoring
Plans
C
Additional Routine
Monitoring
D
Operational Evaluations
E
Surface Water and Mixed CWSs
<100
100-499
500-999
1,000-3,299
3,300-9,999
10,000-49,999
50,000-99,999
100,000-999,999
> 1,000, 000
National Totals
$ 244,635
$ 498,740
$ 363,678
$ 640,272
$ 623,055
$ 1,212,306
$ 239,846
$ 212,143
$ 15,227
$ 4,049,902
$ 447,582
$ 912,489
$ 3,140,721
$ 5,529,388
$ 8,379,826
$ 17,851,398
$ 6,426,075
$ 6,113,574
$ 731,365
$ 49,532,418
$ 76,408
$ 155,774
$ 181,839
$ 320,136
$ 258,721
$ 461,867
$ 93,524
$ 93,984
$ 11,566
$ 1,653,819
$ (52,103)
$ (106,222)
$ (331,698)
$ (583,969)
$ 953,611
$ (2,477,619)
$ 216,219
$ 276,429
$ 36,517
$ (2,068,834)
$ 534
$ 1,089
$ 3,011
$ 5,301
$ 20,870
$ 98,959
$ 39,199
$ 38,699
$ 5,076
$ 212,739
Disinfecting Ground Water Only CWSs
<100
100-499
500-999
1,000-3,299
3,300-9,999
10,000-49,999
50,000-99,999
100,000-999,999
> 1,000,000
National Totals
$ 1,596,365
$ 1,975,736
$ 894,469
$ 1,085,531
$ 492,179
$ 797,681
$ 88,492
$ 46,421
$ 2,180
$ 6,979,054
$ 221,266
$ 273,849
$ 1,931,945
$ 2,344,617
$ 1,063,047
$ 1,642,671
$ 182,233
$ 166,938
$ 5,964
$ 7,832,529
$ 77,140
$ 95,472
$ 507,572
$ 615,991
$ 279,290
$ 320,895
$ 35,599
$ 30,689
$ 1,868
$ 1,964,515
$ 96,758
$ 119,753
$ 553,626
$ 671,883
$ 304,631
$ 117,333
$ 13,017
$ (92,140)
$ (25,261)
$ 1,759,600
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
Surface Water and Mixed NTNCWSs
<100
100-499
500-999
1,000-3,299
3,300-9,999
10,000-49,999
50,000-99,999
100,000-999,999
> 1,000, 000
National Totals
$ 46,558
$ 63,891
$ 23,602
$ 20,707
$ 6,591
$ 3,263
$
$ 740
$
$ 165,353
$
$
$
$
$
$ 46,876
$
$ 23,725
$
$ 70,601
$
$
$ 5,245
$ 4,602
$ 1,216
$ 1,303
$
$ 313
$
$ 12,678
$
$
$
$
$ 25,473
$
$
$ 3,860
$
$ 29,333
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
Disinfecting Ground Water Only NTNCWSs
<100
100-499
500-999
1,000-3,299
3,300-9,999
10,000-49,999
50,000-99,999
100,000-999,999
> 1,000, 000
National Totals
Grand Totals
$ 498,070
$ 425,353
$ 131,289
$ 55,048
$ 4,781
$ 2,082
$ 189
$ 215
$
$ 1,117,027
$ 12,311,336
$
$
$
$
$
$ 855
$ 78
$
$
$ 932
$ 57,436,480
$ 74,304
$ 63,456
$ 51,924
$ 21,771
$ 1,891
$ 1,143
$ 104
$ 192
$
$ 214,785
$ 3,845,797
$ 175,519
$ 149,893
$ 253,333
$ 106,220
$ 9,226
$ 13,563
$ 1,233
$ 2,085
$
$ 711,072
$ 431,171
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$ 212,739
 Notes: Detail may not add to totals due to independent rounding.
 Costs for Stage 2 monitoring plans and additional routine monitoring include those costs for systems that are projected to add disinfection to comply with the
 GWR.
 Source: Derived by multiplying results in H.12 by the baseline adjustment matrix in H.14.
Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR
H-39
December 2005

-------
H.8 Cost & Burden Estimates for States/Primacy Agency Action

To estimate State/Primacy Agency costs, the estimated number of full-time equivalents (FTEs)
required per activity is multiplied by the number of labor hours per FTE, the State/Primacy Agency
hourly wage, and the number of States/Primacy Agencies. EPA estimated the number of FTEs required
per activity based on experience implementing previous rules, such as the Stage 1 DBPR. The number of
States/Primacy Agencies is the sum of the 50 States, six territories, and one tribal government (57 total).
Labor costs attributable to States for administrative tasks are based on an average annual FTE labor cost,
including overhead and fringe benefits, of $65,255 (2001$). This rate was established based on data from
the 2001 State Drinking Water Needs Analysis (ASDWA 2001). For use in the Stage 2 EA analyses, the
$65,255 annual rate was updated to a year 2003 price level ($70,132) using the ECI and converted to an
hourly basis (1 FTE = 2,080 hours) to establish a State rate of $33.60 per hour.

Implementation Activities

States/Primacy Agencies incur labor costs for adopting the regulation and developing a program
for implementation, providing initial public notification, training State staff, training PWS staff, providing
technical assistance, and updating their data management systems. Exhibit H. 17 presents the calculations
and estimated costs and burden for these activities. Note that this EA does not include initial State costs
for laboratory certification because EPA assumes that these activities occurred under the Stage 1 DBPR
and were captured in the Stage 1 DBPR Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA) (USEPA 1998a).

IDSE Activities for States/Primacy Agencies

States/Primacy Agencies will also incur costs as a result of the IDSE. EPA estimated the
number of FTEs required per activity based on experience with previous rules, such as the Stage 1 DBPR.
States/Primacy Agencies are expected to work with the small systems that conduct IDSEs to review data
and make compliance determinations. State/Primacy Agency activities include analyzing IDSE reports
and approving new or revised monitoring sites, responding to PWSs, and keeping records. All the costs
for the IDSE activities were conservatively attributed to States/Primacy Agencies although it is possible
that some of them may not have primacy before the IDSEs begin. Exhibit H.I 8 shows the calculations
and estimated costs and burden associated with the IDSE for States/Primacy Agencies.

Because systems receiving the very small system waivers do not have to submit an IDSE report,
EPA assumes that minimal state time will be needed for these systems.

Monitoring Plans

States/Primacy Agencies will incur costs to review the monitoring plans. States/Primacy
Agencies are expected to review the monitoring plans for PWSs and approve them. States will only have
to review monitoring plans for subpart H systems serving more than 3,300 people. EPA estimated the
effort at four hours per monitoring plan for small systems and 8 hours for large systems, based on
experience with previous rules, such as the Stage 1 DBPR. Exhibit H. 19 shows the calculations and
estimated costs and burden associated with the IDSE for States/Primacy Agencies.

Additional Routine Monitoring for States/Primacy Agencies

States/Primacy Agencies will incur costs to review and monitor PWSs' routine monitoring for
TTHM and HAA5. States/Primacy Agencies are expected to incur costs for tracking PWS monitoring
data and updating records. EPA estimated that 0.40 FTE's will be needed per State/Primacy agency for
this activity, which is equivalent to 832 hours per State/Primacy Agency or 47,424 hours total (57x832).

Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR H-40 December 2005

-------
   Operational Evaluations

           States/Primacy Agencies will incur costs to review operational evaluations made by PWSs.  It is
   estimated that States/Primacy Agencies will use 1 hour to review each report and consult with the PWS.
   Exhibit H.20 shows estimated costs and burdens for operational evaluations for States/Primacy Agencies.
   Summary
           Exhibit H.21 shows a summary of all State/Primacy Agency costs.
       Exhibit H.17 State/Primacy Agency Costs for Implementation and Additional
                                  Routine Monitoring Activities



Cost per
Labor Hour
A
FTEs per
State
B
Hours per
State
C=B*2,080

Cost per State
D=A*C
National
Total FTEs
E=B*57
National
Total Hours
F=C*57
National Total
Cost
G=D*57
Implementation Activities
Public Notification |
Regulation Adoption and Program Development
Training State Staff
Training PWS Staff and Technical Assistants
Updating Data Management System
Totals
$ 33.60
$ 33.60
$ 33.60
$ 33.60
$ 33.60

0.10
0.50
0.25
1.00
0.10
1.95
208
1,040
520
2,080
208
4,056
$ 6,989
$ 34,944
$ 17,472
$ 69,888
$ 6,989
$ 136,282
5.70
28.50
14.25
57.00
5.70
111
11,856
59,280
29,640
118,560
11,856
231,192
$ 398,362
$ 1,991,808
$ 995,904
$ 3,983,616
$ 398,362
$ 7,768,051
Additional Routine Monitoring Activities
Recordkeeping and Compliance Tracking
Totals
Grand Totals
$ 33.60


0.40
0.40
2.35
832
832
4,888
$ 27,955
$ 27,955
164,237
22.80
22.80
134
47,424
47,424
278,616
$ 1,593,446
$ 1,593,446
9,361,498
Notes:        All states/primacy agencies are assumed to incur some costs for each activity.

Sources:       (A) State labor rates based on the State Workload Model, updated to year 2003 dollar values.
            (B) FTEs per State/Primacy Agency based on EPA experience with previous regulations.
   Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR
H-41
December 2005

-------
                 Exhibit H.18 State/Primacy Agency Costs for the IDSE
Size Category

Number of Systems Conducting IDSE, by
Category
Standard
Monitoring
A
System-
Specific
Study
B
40/30
Certification
C
Number of Hours to Work with Systems on
IDSE and Review I DSE Reports
Standard
Monitoring
D
System-
Specific
Study
E
40/30
Certification
F
Average State
Employee
Hourly Wage
G
Average Total Costs
to States
H = la "
(A*D+B*E+C*F)
Average
Total Costs
per State
I = H / 57
Total
Burden
J = A"U +
B*E + C*F
Average
Burden/
State
K = J/57
Surface Water and Mixed CWSs
<500
500-3,300
3,301-9,999
10,000-49,999
50,000-249,999
250,000-999,999
1,000,000-4,999,999
>5M
National Totals
2,060
3,823
1,888
1,524
436
63
14
1
9,809
0
0
0
0
23
7
1
0
31
0
235
154
249
75
11
2
0
726
4
4
4
8
8
10
12
12

4
4
4
8
8
12
16
16

0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5

$ 33.60
$ 33.60
$ 33.60
$ 33.60
$ 33.60
$ 33.60
$ 33.60
$ 33.60

$ 276,802
$ 517,759
$ 256,334
$ 413,834
$ 124,639
$ 24,175
$ 6,216
$ 403
$ 1,620,164
$ 4,856
$ 9,083
$ 4,497
$ 7,260
$ 2,187
$ 424
$ 109
$ 7
$ 28,424
8238.16
15409.5
7629
12316.5
3709.5
719.5
185
12
48,219
144.5
270.3
133.8
216.1
65.1
12.6
3.2
0.2
846.0
Ground Water Only CWSs
<500
500-9,999
10,000-99,999
100,000-499,999
> 500,000
National Totals
752
1,956
240
18
1
2,966
0
0
0
2
0
2
0
9,094
1,118
40
5
10,257
4
4
8
8
12

4
4
8
8
16

0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5

$ 33.60
$ 33.60
$ 33.60
$ 33.60
$ 33.60

$ 101,004
$ 415,609
$ 83,226
$ 5,995
$ 443
$ 606,278
$ 1,772
$ 7,291
$ 1,460
$ 105
$ 8
$ 10,636
3,006
12,369
2,477
178
13
18,044
52.7
217.0
43.5
3.1
0.2
316.6
Surface Water and Mixed NTNCWSs
<500
500-3,300
3,301-9,999
10,000-49,999
50,000-249,999
250,000-999,999
1,000,000-4,999,999
>5M
National Totals



4
1
0
0
0
5
-
-

0
0
0
0
0
0



1
0
0
0
0
1



8
8
10
12
12

-
-

8
8
12
16
16

-
-

0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5

Disinfecting Ground Water Only NTNCWSs
<500
500-9,999
10,000-99,999
100,000-499,999
> 500,000
National Totals
Grand Totals


1
0
0
1
12,780

-
0
0
0
0
33


3
0
0
3
10,987


8
8
12




8
8
16



-
0.5
0.5
0.5


-
-

$ 33.60
$ 33.60
$ 33.60
$ 33.60
$ 33.60

-
-

$ 1,092
$ 269
$
$
$
$ 1,361
-
-

$ 19
$ 5
$
$
$
$ 24


-
$ 33.60
$ 33.60
$ 33.60



-
$ 214
$ 78
$
$ 292
$ 2,228,095

-
$ 4
$ 1
$
$ 5
$ 39,089
-
-

33
8
0
0
0
41
-
-

0.6
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.7


-
6
2
0
9
66,312

-
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.2
1,163.4
Sources:  (A, B, C) From columns E, F, and G in Exhibits H.3a and H.3b.
       (D, E, F) From EPA experience with other regulations.
Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR
H-42
December 2005

-------
               Exhibit H.19 State/Primacy Agency Monitoring Plan Costs





Size Category

Number of
Systems
Conducting
Monitoring
Plan, by
Category
A
Number of
Hours to
Review
Monitoring
Plans per
System
B

Average
State
Employee
Hourly
Wage
C



Average Total
Costs to
States
D = A*B*C



Average
Total Costs
per State
E = D/57




Total
Burden
F = A*B
Surface Water and Mixed CWSs
<500
500-3,300
3,301-9,999
10,000-49,999
50,000-249,999
250,000-999,999
1,000,000-4,999,999
>5M
National Totals
2,060
4,058
2,042
1,773
534
81
17
1
10,566
0
0
4
8
8
8
8
8
-
$ 33.60
$ 33.60
$ 33.60
$ 33.60
$ 33.60
$ 33.60
$ 33.60
$ 33.60
-
$
$
$ 274,445
$ 476,582
$ 143,539
$ 21 ,773
$ 4,570
$ 269
$ 921,178
$
$
$ 4,815
$ 8,361
$ 2,518
$ 382
$ 80
$ 5
$ 16,161
0
0
8,168
14,184
4,272
648
136
8
27,416
Ground Water Only CWSs
<500
500-9,999
10,000-99,999
100,000-499,999
> 500,000
National Totals
1,544
11,286
1,368
61
6
14,267
0
0
0
0
0
-
$ 33.60
$ 33.60
$ 33.60
$ 33.60
$ 33.60
-
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
0
0
0
0
0
0
Surface Water and Mixed NTNCWSs
<500
500-3,300
3,301-9,999
10,000-49,999
50,000-249,999
250,000-999,999
1,000,000-4,999,999
>5M
National Totals
0
0
24
5
1
0
0
0
30
0
0
4
8
8
8
8
8
-
$ 33.60
$ 33.60
$ 33.60
$ 33.60
$ 33.60
$ 33.60
$ 33.60
$ 33.60
-
$
$
$ 3,226
$ 1 ,344
$ 269
$
$
$
$ 4,838
$
$
$ 57
$ 24
$ 5
$
$
$
$ 85
0
0
96
40
8
0
0
0
48
Disinfecting Ground Water Only NTNCWSs
<500
500-9,999
10,000-99,999
100,000-499,999
> 500,000
National Totals
Grand Totals
1,241
268
5
0
0
1,514
26,376
0
0
0
0
0
-
-
$ 33.60
$ 33.60
$ 33.60
$ 33.60
$ 33.60
-
-
$
$
$
$
$
$
$ 926,016
$
$
$
$
$
$
$ 16,246
0
0
0
0
0
0
27,464
     Notes:
     Sources:    (A) From columns A, B, and C in Exhibit H.7
               (B) From EPA experience with other regulations.
               (C) State labor rates based on the State Workload Model, updated to year 2003 dollar values.
Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR
H-43
December 2005

-------
          Exhibit H.20 State/Primacy Agency Operational Evaluation Costs






Size Category

Number of
times
Operational
Evaluation
Levels are
exceeded per
Year
A

Number of
Hours to
Review
Operational
Evaluations
per System
B


Average
State
Employee
Hourly
Wage
C




Average Total
Costs to
States
D = A*B*C




Average
Total Costs
per State
E = D/57





Total
Burden
F = A*B
Surface Water and Mixed CWSs
<500
500-3,300
3,301-9,999
10,000-49,999
50,000-249,999
250,000-999,999
1 ,000,000-4,999,999
>5M
National Totals
12
28
57
199
120
27
8
1
452
4
6
6
8
8
8
8
8
-
$ 33.60
$ 33.60
$ 33.60
$ 33.60
$ 33.60
$ 33.60
$ 33.60
$ 33.60
-
$ 1,613
$ 5,645
$ 11,491
$ 53,491
$ 32,256
$ 7,258
$ 2,150
$ 269
$ 114,173
$ 28
$ 99
$ 202
$ 938
$ 566
$ 127
$ 38
$ 5
$ 2,003
48
168
342
1,592
960
216
64
8
3,398
Ground Water Only CWSs
<500
500-9,999
10,000-99,999
100,000-499,999
> 500,000
National Totals
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
6
8
8
8
-
$ 33.60
$ 33.60
$ 33.60
$ 33.60
$ 33.60
-
$
$
$
$
$
$
-
$
$
$
$
$
0
0
0
0
0
0
Surface Water and Mixed NTNCWSs
<500
500-3,300
3,301-9,999
10,000-49,999
50,000-249,999
250,000-999,999
1 ,000,000-4,999,999
>5M
National Totals
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
6
6
8
8
8
8
8
-
$ 33.60
$ 33.60
$ 33.60
$ 33.60
$ 33.60
$ 33.60
$ 33.60
$ 33.60
-
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
-
$
$
$
$
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Disinfecting Ground Water Only NTNCWSs
<500
500-9,999
10,000-99,999
100,000-499,999
> 500,000
National Totals
Grand Totals
0
0
0
0
0
0
452
4
6
8
8
8
-
-
$ 33.60
$ 33.60
$ 33.60
$ 33.60
$ 33.60
-
-
$
$
$
$
$
$
$ 114,173
-
-
$
$
$
$
$ 2,003
0
0
0
0
0
0
3,398
  Sources:    (A) From column D in Exhibit H.10
             (B) From EPA experience with other regulations.
             (C) State labor rates based on the State Workload Model, updated to year 2003 dollar values.
Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR
H-44
December 2005

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                     Exhibit H.21  State/Primacy Agency Cost Summary

Total Hours
A
Average
Hours per
State
B = A/57
Cost/ Labor
Hour
C
Total Cost
D
Cost per
State
E = D/57
Implementation Activities
Public Notification
Regulation Adoption and Program Development
Training State Staff
Training PWS Staff and Technical Assistants
Updating Data Management System
Subtotal
1 1 ,856
59,280
29,640
118,560
1 1 ,856
231,192
208
1,040
520
2,080
208
4,056
$ 33.60
$ 33.60
$ 33.60
$ 33.60
$ 33.60

$ 398,362
$ 1,991,808
$ 995,904
$ 3,983,616
$ 398,362
$ 7,768,051
$ 6,989
$ 34,944
$ 17,472
$ 69,888
$ 6,989
$ 136,282
Monitoring Plan Activities
Monitoring Plans
27,464
482
$ 33.60
$ 926,016
$ 16,246
IDSE Activities
IDSE Monitoring
66,312
1,163
$ 33.60
$ 2,228,095
$ 39,089
Additional Routine Monitoring Activities
Recordkeeping and Compliance Tracking
Operational Evaluation Costs
Subtotal
Grand Totals
47,424
3,398
50,822
375,790
832
60
892
6,593
$ 33.60
$ 33.60


$ 1,593,446
$ 114,173
$ 1,707,619
$ 12,629,781
$ 27,955
$ 2,003
$ 29,958
$ 221,575
        Notes:      All states/primacy agencies are assumed to incur some costs for each activity.

        Sources:    (A) Exhibits H.17 to H.20.
                  (B) Exhibits H.17 to H.20.
                  (C) State labor rates based on the State Workload Model, updated to year 2003 dollar values.
Final Economic Analysis for Stage 2 DBPR
H-45
December 2005

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