&EPA
    United States
    Environmental Protection
    Agency
Draft EPA-USGS Technical Report: Protecting
Aquatic Life from Effects of Hydrologic Alteration
EPA Report 822-P-15-002
USGS Scientific Investigations Report 2015-5160
U.S. Department of the Interior
U.S. Geological Survey
United States
Environmental Protection
Agency

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For more information concerning this document contact:

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Diana M. Eignor
EPA, Office of Water, Office of Science and Technology
1200 Pennsylvania Ave., N.W., MC4304T
Washington, DC 20460
Phone: (202) 566-1143, Fax: (202) 566-1140
Email: Eignor.Diana@epa.gov

U.S. Geological Survey
Jonathan G. Kennen
New Jersey Water Science Center
3450 Princeton Pike, Suite 110
Lawrenceville, NJ 08648
Phone: (609) 771-3948, Fax (609) 771-3915
Email: jgkennen@usgs.gov
Cover. Redfish Lake Creek, Stanley, Idaho. (Photo by Daniel Hart, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency)

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Draft: EPA-USGS Technical  Report: Protecting Aquatic  Life

from  Effects of Hydrologic Alteration

By Rachael Novak1, Jonathan G. Kennen2, Ralph W. Abele3, Carol F. Baschon4, Daren M. Carlisle5, Laura Dlugolecki6, Joe
E. Flotermersch7, Peter Ford8, Jamie Fowler9, Rose Galer10, Lisa P. Gordon11, Susan N. Hansen12, Bruce Herbold13,
Thomas E. Johnson14, John M. Johnston15, Christopher P. Konrad16, Beth Leamond17, and Paul W. Seelbach18.

1. Bureau of Indian Affairs, Washington, D.C. (Formerly with U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA),
Office of Water, Office of Science and Technology, Washington, D.C.)
2. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), New Jersey Water Science Center, Lawrenceville, New Jersey
3. EPA,  Region 1, Office of Ecosystem Protection, Boston, Massachusetts
4.  EPA, Region 4, Office of Regional Counsel, Atlanta, Georgia
5. USGS, Kansas Water Science Center, Lawrence, Kansas
6. Former Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (ORISE) participant in EPA Office of Water, Office of
Wetlands, Oceans and Watersheds, Washington, D.C.
7. EPA,  Office of Research and Development, National Exposure Research Lab, Cincinnati, Ohio
8. EPA,  Office of General Counsel, Washington, D.C.
9. EPA,  Office of Water, Office of Wetlands, Oceans and Watersheds, Washington, D.C.
10. Former ORISE participant in EPA Office of Water, Office of Science and Technology Standards and Health
Protection Program, Washington, D.C.
11. EPA, Region 4, Water Quality Standards, Atlanta, Georgia
12. EPA, Region 4, Office of Regional Counsel, Atlanta, Georgia
13. EPA, Region 9 (retired), San Francisco, California
14. EPA, Office of Research and Development, National Center for Environmental Assessment, Arlington,
Virginia
15. EPA, Office of Research and Development, National Exposure Research Lab, Athens, Georgia
16. USGS Geological Survey, Washington Water Science Center, Tacoma, Washington
17. EPA Office of Water (retired), Office of Science and Technology, Washington, D.C.
18. USGS Geological Survey, Great Lakes Science Center, Ann Arbor, Michigan

Jointly  prepared by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S.
Geological Survey


EPA  Report 822-P-15-002

USGS  Scientific Investigations Report  2015-5160

U.S. Department of the Interior                                       United States
U.S. Geological Survey                                              Environmental Protection
                                                                   Agency

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U.S. Department of the Interior
SALLY JEWELL, Secretary

U.S. Geological Survey
Suzette M.  Kimball, Director
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
GINA  MCCARTHY, Administrator

Office of Water
Joel Beauvais,  Deputy Assistant
Administrator
U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia: 2015
U.S. EPA, Washington, DC: 2015
                              For more information on the USGS—the Federal source for science about the Earth,
                              its natural and living resources, natural hazards, and the environment—visit
                              http://www.usgs.gov/orcall 1-888-ASK-USGS (1-888-275-8747).
                              For an overview of USGS information products, including maps, imagery, and publications,
                              visit http://www.usgs.gov/pubprod/.
                              For more information on the EPA and our mission to protect human health and the environment—visit
                              http://www3.epa.gov/.
                              For an overview of EPA publications, visit http://www2.epa.gov/nscep
                              Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply
                              endorsement by the U.S. Government.
                              Although this information product, for the most part, is in the public domain, it also may
                              contain copyrighted materials as noted in the text. Permission to reproduce copyrighted items
                              must be secured from the copyright owner.
                              Suggested citation:
                              Novak, Rachael, Kennen, J.G., Abele, R.W., Baschon, C.F., Carlisle, D.M., Dlugolecki, Laura, Flotermersch, J.E., Ford, Peter,
                              Fowler, Jamie, Galer, Rose, Gordon, L.P., Hansen, S.N., Herbold, Bruce, Johnson, I.E., Johnston, J.M., Konrad, C.P.,
                              Leamond, Beth, and Seelbach, P.W, 2015, Draft:  EPA-USGS Technical Report: Protecting Aquatic Life from Effects of
                              Hydrologic Alteration: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2015-5160, U.S. Environmental Protection
                              Agency EPA Report 822-P-15-002, XX p., http://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2015/5160/ and http://www2.epa.gov/wqc/aquatic life-
                              ambient-water quality-criteria
                                                                                                                              IV

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Disclaimer





This report provides technical support and examples to advance the protection of aquatic life use from




adverse effects of hydrologic alterations in streams and rivers. The provisions in the Clean Water Act (CWA)




and in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulations described in this document contain legally




binding requirements; however, this document is not a law itself, nor does it change or substitute for those




requirements. It does not impose legally binding requirements on EPA, states, tribes, or the regulatory




community. This document does not confer legal rights or impose legal obligations on any member of the




public.





Although the  U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and EPA have made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the




discussion in this document, the obligations of the regulated community are determined by statutes,




regulations, and other legally binding requirements. In the event of a conflict between the discussion in this




document and any statute or regulation, this document will not be controlling.





Depending on individual circumstances, the general descriptions provided here may not apply to a given




situation. Interested parties are free to raise questions and objections about the substance of this document




and the appropriateness of the application of the information  presented to a specific situation. This document




does not make any judgment regarding any specific data collected or determinations made as part of a state




or tribal water quality program. State and tribal decision makers retain the discretion to adopt approaches on




a case-by-case basis that differ from the approaches described in this report.

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Acknowledgments





The authors thank LeRoy Poff (Colorado State University), Julian Olden (University of Washington), Mark Rains




(University of South Florida), Larry Brown (USGS, California Water Science Center) and Eric Stein (Southern




California Coastal Water Research Project) for providing timely and thoughtful reviews that greatly improved




the draft version of this report. We graciously thank Robie Anson, Cheryl Atkinson, Bill Beckwith, Betsy Behl,




Renee Bellew, Britta Bierwagen, David Bylsma (former ORISE Fellow), Valentina Cabrera-Stagnos,  Leah Ettema,




Colleen Flaherty, Brian Fontenot, Laura Gabanski, Kathryn Gallagher, Tom Hagler, Rosemary Hall, Wayne




Jackson, Ann Lavaty, Christine Mazzarella, Stephen Maurano, Brenda Rashleigh, Susan Spielberger, Michele




Wetherington, and Ann Williams of the EPA for their constructive comments and suggestions. The authors




thank Jerry Diamond, Anna Hamilton, Maggie Craig, and Shann Stringer (Tetra Tech, Inc.), and Andrew Somor,




Corey Godfrey, and Karen Sklenar (The Cadmus Group, Inc.) for their technical support throughout the




development and publication of this report. Editorial, graphical, and publishing support from Dale Simmons




and Denis Sun, respectively, of the USGS West Trenton Publishing Service Center, was greatly appreciated.
                                                                                                 VI

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Conversion Factors
International System of Units to Inch/Pound
Multiply
By
To obtain
Length
centimeter (cm)
meter (km)
kilometer (km)
0.3937
3.2808
0.6213
inch (in.)
foot (ft)
mile (mi)
Area
square meter (m2)
square kilometer (km2)
hectare (ha)
0.00025
0.3861
2.4710
Acre
square mile (mi2)
Acre
Volume
cubic meter (m3)
cubic meter (m3)
35.3147
0.00026
cubic foot (ft3)
million gallon (gal)
Flow rate
cubic meter per second per square kilometer
[(m3/s)/km2]
cubic meter per second (m3/s)
91.47
22.8244
cubic foot per second per square mile [(ft3/s)/mi2]
million gallons per day (Mgal/d)
Temperature in degrees Celsius (°C) may be converted to degrees Fahrenheit (°F) as °F = (1.8 x °C) + 32.
                                                                                                                VII

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Acronyms
Acronym/Abbreviation Definition
BMP
CADDIS
CFR
CWA
ELOHA
EPA
ERA
FERC
GCM
IBI
IFC
IPCC
IR
MS4
NPDES
TMDL
USDA
USGS
WQS
Best Management Practice
Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System
Code of Federal Regulations
Clean Water Act
Ecological Limits of Hydrologic Alteration
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Ecological Risk Assessment
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission
General Circulation Model
Index of Biotic Integrity
Instream Flow Council
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
integrated reporting
Municipal Separate Storm Sewer System
National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System
Total Maximum Daily Load
U.S. Department of Agriculture
U.S. Geological Survey
water quality standards
                                                                           VIM

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Contents








Disclaimer	v





Acknowledgments	vi





Acronyms	viii





1    Abstract	7





2    Introduction	9





3    Purpose, Scope, and Overview	13





     3.1   Purpose and Scope	13





     3.2   Overview	13





     3.3   Who Can Use This Information?	14





4    Effects of Altered Flow on Aquatic Life	15





     4.1   Conceptual Model of the Biological Effects of Flow Alteration	15





     4.2   Drivers of the  Natural Flow Regime	18





     4.3   Sources of Flow Alteration	19





       4.3.1 Dams and Impoundments	20





       4.3.2 Diversions	24





       4.3.3 Ground water Withdrawals	26





       4.3.4 Effluents and Other Artificial Inputs (Discharges)	27





       4.3.5 Land-Cover Alteration (Land Use)	28

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       4.3.6 Climate Change	30





     4.4  Physical and Chemical Effects of Flow Alteration	34





       4.4.1 Effects on Geomorphology	34





       4.4.2 Effects on Connectivity	35





       4.4.3 Effects on Water Temperature and Chemistry	36





     4.5  Biological Responses to Flow Alteration	37





5    Examples of State and Federal Actions to Protect Aquatic Life from Altered Flows	39





     5.1  Narrative Criteria in State and Tribal Water Quality Standards  	42





     5.2  Monitoring, Assessing, and Identifying Waters Impaired as a Result of Flow Alteration	49





     5.3  Development of Total Maximum Daily Loads	55





     5.4  Consideration of Flow Alteration in Issuing 401 Certifications	56





     5.5  Consideration of Flow Alteration in Issuing 404 Permits	57





     5.6  Consideration of Flow Alteration in Issuing National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System




          (402) Permits	59





     5.7  Further considerations	63





6    Framework for Quantifying Flow Targets to Protect Aquatic Life	65





     6.1  Link Narrative Criteria to Biological Goals and Assessment Endpoints	68





     6.2  Identify Target Streams	69





     6.3  Conduct  Literature Review	71





     6.4  Develop Conceptual Models	72

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     6.5   Perform Data Inventory	74





     6.6   Identify Flow and Biological Indicators	75





     6.7   Develop Qualitative or Quantitative Flow-Ecology Models	79





     6.8   Estimate Effects and Identify Acceptable Levels	82





     6.9   Example Applications of the Flow-Target Framework	84





7    Conclusions	92





8    Selected References	93





Appendix A. Overview of the Clean Water Act and Water Quality Standards Relevant to the




     Development and  Use of Criteria for Hydrologic Condition	130





     Al. Designated Uses and Existing Uses	131





     A2. Water quality Criteria	132





     A3. Antidegradation	133





     A4. Using Narrative Criteria	134





Appendix B. Legal  Background and Relevant Case Law	135





Appendix C. Climate-Change Vulnerability and the Flow Regime	138





References Cited	151







Figures








Figure 1. Schematic diagram depicting the interaction between the natural flow regime, natural




   watershed conditions and the many ecosystem services it helps to maintain	12

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Figure 2. Schematic diagram illustrating a generalized conceptual model of the biological effects of flow




   alteration	17





Figure 3. Map showing dams in the conterminous United States listed in the National Inventory of




   Dams (NID) (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 2013)	23





Figure 4. Map showing location of water-conveyance structures in the medium-resolution National




   Hydrography Dataset (NHD) (U.S. Geological Survey, 2012), illustrating the widespread extent of




   canals, ditches, and pipelines in the conterminous United States	25





Figure 5. Graph showing streamflow at Halfmoon Creek, Colorado (U.S. Geological Survey station




   number 7083000), May-September, 2010	26





Figure 6. Graph showing artificially augmented daily streamflow at Sixth Water Creek, Utah (U.S.




   Geological Survey station number 10149000), January-December, 2000	28





Figure 7. Map showing trends in the magnitude of 7-day low streamflows in the  United States, 1940-




   2009	32





Figure 8. Map showing trends in the timing of winter-spring runoff in the United States, 1940-2009.. 33





Figure 9. Schematic diagram illustrating water quality management programs based on water quality




   standards underthe Clean Water Act	42





Figure 10. Flow diagram illustrating a framework for quantifying flow targets to  protect aquatic life. 67





Figure 11. Example conceptual diagram illustrating the ecological effects of human-induced flow




   alteration from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision




   Information  System (CADDIS)	73

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Figure 12. Example flow-ecology curves illustrating quantitative relations between flow and biological




   indicators	80





Figure 13. Example fish response curve from Scenario A generated through regression modeling	90





Figure 14. Conceptual diagram illustrating hypothesized flow needs offish and other aquatic biota by




   season in major tributaries of the Susquehanna River Basin, northeastern United States	91





Figure C-l. (a) Composite results of the vulnerability assessment illustrating the combined changes in




   the seven component metrics of projected climate-change parameters, three of which are shown:




   (b) surface runoff, (c) minimum temperature, and (d) snowpack	144





Figure C- 2. Diagram showing effect of climate change on life stages of salmonids through time, by




   season	147







Tables








Table 1. Excerpts from narrative flow criteria for selected states and tribes	44





Table 2. Example flow and biological indicators used to evaluate relations between streamflow




   characteristics and aquatic assemblage response	77





Table 3. Example applications of the framework to quantitatively translate the following narrative flow




   criterion: "Changes to the natural flow regime shall not impair the ability of a stream to support




   characteristic fish populations."	87





Table Cl. Incorporating climate-change considerations into the framework for quantifying flow targets.149

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Boxes





Box A. Goals of the Clean Water Act	10





Box B. Ecological Risk Assessment	15





Box C. Addressing Flow Regime Components	48





Box D. Procedures for Capturing Flow Information in the State of Texas	52





Box E. Vermont Addresses Hydrologically Altered Waters	55





Box F. 401 Certifications, Sufficient Flow, and Water quality Standards	57





Box G. Stormwater and West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) Municipal




   Separate Storm Sewer Systems (MS4) Permit Language	63





Box H. Fundamentals of Stream Classification	70





Box I. Components of Climate-Change Vulnerability	140





Box J. California's Climate-Change Vulnerability Index	142





Box K. Addressing Regional Climate-Change Effects on Salmon Habitat in the Pacific Northwest:




   Examples for Prioritizing Restoration Activities	145

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1   Abstract






The U.S. Congress enacted the Clean Water Act (CWA) in 1972 to "restore and maintain the chemical, physical




and biological integrity of the Nation's waters" (Section 101(a)). The natural flow regime, defined as the




characteristic pattern of flow magnitude, timing, duration, frequency, and rate of change, plays a critical role




in supporting the chemical, physical, and biological integrity of streams and rivers and the services they




provide. Human-induced alteration of the natural flow regime can degrade a stream's physical and chemical




properties, leading to loss of aquatic life and  reduced aquatic biodiversity. Protecting aquatic life from the




effects of flow alteration involves maintaining multiple components of the flow regime within their typical




range of variation. This report was developed to serve as a source of information for states, tribes, and




territories on (1) the natural flow regime and potential effects of flow alteration on aquatic life; (2) CWA




programs that can be used to support the natural flow regime and maintain the health of aquatic biota; and




(3) a flexible, nonprescriptive framework to quantify targets for flow regime components that are protective




of aquatic life.





Anthropogenic landscape change and water management activities are modifying flood flows, base flows,




peak-flow timing,  and other flow characteristics in streams and  rivers throughout the United States. Under




natural conditions, a stream's flow regime is determined by hydrologic properties at two scales, the upstream




drainage area (catchment) and the local, reach scale. At the catchment scale, climate determines patterns of




water and energy input over time, whereas physical  characteristics like soils, geology, and topography




determine pathways, rates of runoff, and routing through the stream network. Reach-scale factors such as




local groundwater dynamics further influence natural flow regime characteristics. Human activities that alter




the natural flow regime also occur at both the catchment and reach scales and include impoundments,




channelization, diversions, groundwater pumping, wastewater discharges, urban development, thermoelectric




power generation, and agricultural practices. Many of these activities alter hydrologic processes like

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infiltration, groundwater recharge, channel storage, or routing and lead to flow conditions outside the natural




range of variation. Others directly add or remove water from a stream such that flows are uncommonly high




or low over long periods of time. Occurring in conjunction with these activities is climate change. Climate




trends observed in recent decades and future projections (for example, rising ambient air temperatures,




increasing frequency of heavy precipitation events, reductions in the thickness of snow pack and ice) may




magnify the effects of other anthropogenic processes on the natural flow regime.





Alteration of the natural flow regime can have cascading effects on the physical, chemical, and biological




properties of riverine ecosystems. Effects on physical properties include altered channel geomorphology




(channel incision, widening, bed armoring, etc.), reduced (or augmented) riparian and flood-plain connectivity,




and reduced (or augmented)  longitudinal (upstream-downstream) and vertical (surface  water/groundwater)




connectivity. Effects on water quality can also result from altered flow magnitudes. For example, salinity,




sedimentation, and water temperature can increase when flow volumes are reduced, whereas erosion and




sediment transport can increase with amplified flow volumes. These changes to a stream can in turn lead to




the degradation of aquatic life as a result of the loss and disconnection of high-quality habitat. Furthermore,




altered flows can fail to provide the cues needed for aquatic species to complete their life cycles and can




encourage the invasion and establishment of non-native aquatic species. The ability of a water body to




support aquatic life is tied to the maintenance of key flow-regime components.





CWA programs can incorporate strategies to protect water quality and aquatic life from the potentially




harmful effects of flow alteration. Water quality standards programs can adopt criteria for flow to protect




aquatic life designated uses. As of 2014, 10 states and several tribes had adopted a narrative form of flow




criteria in their water quality standards. Water quality monitoring and assessment programs can collect flow




data and develop methods to evaluate whether flow alteration is contributing to water quality impairments.




National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) permitting programs can incorporate hydrologic and

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flow regime considerations into permit conditions. For example, several states and the U.S. Environmental




Protection Agency (EPA) have defined numeric post-construction standards in permits for municipal separate




storm sewer systems (MS4s) that require the treatment or retention of a specified volume of runoff to be




managed on site. In addition, CWA Section 404 permit programs, which authorize activities such as dam




construction, can consider whether a proposed project would alter the natural flow regime and adversely




affect aquatic life. These activities are subject to CWA Section 401 certification, in which a state verifies that a




project requiring a Federal license or permit will  not violate State water quality standards. A state can include




flow as a condition for Section 401 certification even if flow criteria are not yet adopted in State water quality




standards.





Efforts to implement strategies to protect aquatic life from flow alteration will be most effective if numeric




targets are  identified for flow-regime components that equate to intact and healthy aquatic communities. This




report presents a flexible framework to quantify flow targets that incorporates  EPA Guidelines for Ecological




Risk Assessment (ERA) and concepts from contemporary environmental flow  literature. The framework




consists of eight steps that begins with identifying biological goals and assessment endpoints and ends with an




evaluation of effects to aquatic life under varying degrees of flow alteration. The framework does not




prescribe any particular analytical approach (for example, statistical or mechanistic modeling methodology),




but rather focuses on the  process and information needed to evaluate relations between flow and aquatic life




and to select numeric flow targets.






2   Introduction






Healthy aquatic ecosystems provide an array of services to individuals and society, including clean drinking




water, irrigation supplies,  and  recreational opportunities (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2012c).




Sound and sustainable management of aquatic ecosystems is an integral part of managing water resources to




meet the needs of society and the goals of the Clean Water Act (CWA) (see Box A).

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Box A. Goals of the Clean Water Act
In 1972, with the objective of protecting lakes, rivers, streams, estuaries, wetlands, coastal waters, oceans,

and other water bodies, the U.S. Congress enacted the Clean Water Act (CWA). The overall objective of the

CWA is to "restore and maintain the chemical, physical and biological integrity of the Nation's waters" (Section

101(a)). In addition, the CWA establishes as an interim goal "water quality which provides for the protection

and propagation offish, shellfish and wildlife and provides for recreation in and on the water," wherever

attainable (Section 101(a)(2)).

Freshwater aquatic ecosystems are the most altered ecosystems globally; they exhibit declines in biodiversity

that far outpace those of terrestrial or marine ecosystems (Dudgeon and others, 2006; Strayer and Dudgeon,

2010). Although discharge of contaminants ranks as a top threat to aquatic  biodiversity, other important

sources of stress include urbanization, agriculture practices, and engineered structures used for water-

resource development (Vorosmarty and others, 2010). These factors directly and indirectly alter the natural

hydrology of a catchment and can have cascading effects on aquatic organisms (Poff and others, 1997).

Today's water-resource managers face a universal challenge: balancing the  needs of a growing human

population with the protection of natural hydrologic regimes to support aquatic life, ecosystem health, and

services of crucial  importance to society (Annear and others, 2004; Postel and Richter, 2003). Further

complicating this challenge are expected changes to historic hydrologic conditions as a result of climate

change, which add complexity to the task of estimating acceptable levels of hydrologic variation  (Milly and

others, 2008).

The natural flow regime, defined as the characteristic pattern of flow magnitude, timing, duration, frequency,

and rate of change, plays a critical role in supporting the ecological integrity of streams and rivers and the

services they provide (Figure 1). Human-induced alteration of the natural flow regime can degrade the

physical, chemical, and  biological  properties of a water body (Annear and others, 2004; Bunn and Arthington,

                                                                                                  10

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2002; Naiman and others, 2002; Poff and others, 1997; Poff and Zimmerman, 2010; and many others). For




example, an increase in the duration and frequency of high flows can degrade aquatic habitat through




scouring and streambank erosion. More frequent low-flow conditions can degrade water quality through




elevated concentrations of toxic contaminants resulting from decreased dilution, increased temperatures, or a




decrease in dissolved-oxygen concentration. Lower flows can reduce sensitive taxa diversity and abundance,




alter life cycles, cause mortality in aquatic life, and promote the expansion of invasive plants and animals




(Bunn and Arthington, 2002; Poff and Zimmerman, 2010).





Flow alteration can be a primary contributor to the impairment of water bodies that are designated to support




aquatic life. Addressing flow conditions by using CWA mechanisms such as water quality standards (WQS) can




contribute to a comprehensive approach to managing and protecting water quality, improving aquatic




restoration efforts, maintaining designated uses (for example, aquatic life, cold-water or warm-water fisheries,




economically or recreationally important aquatic species), and satisfying antidegradation requirements. As the




science of flow ecology has uncovered aquatic life needs across the full spectrum of the flow regime (base




flows, high flows, etc.), water-resource managers are starting to recognize that protecting aquatic life from the




adverse effects of flow alteration involves maintaining multiple components of the flow regime  within their




typical range of variation. This perspective requires an understanding of natural flow variability over space and




time and the many ways in which biota respond to varied flow conditions.
                                                                                                 11

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                 Natural watershed conditions
                  (Climate, soils, physiography, etc.)
                       Natural flow regime
         (Magnitude, frequency, duration, timing, rate of change)
                                I
              Maintenance of ecosystem services
          (Recreation, fisheries, water supply, navigation, etc.)
Figure 1. Schematic diagram depicting the interaction between the natural flow regime, natural
watershed conditions and the many ecosystem services it helps to maintain.
                                                                            12

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3   Purpose, Scope, and Overview

3.1  Purpose and Scope

The purpose of this report is threefold. First, it describes the effects of flow alteration on aquatic life

designated uses in streams,  rivers, and other natural flowing water bodies. Second, it shows how CWA

mechanisms address hydrology or flow alterations through state and tribal examples. Third, it provides a

flexible, nonprescriptive framework to quantify flow targets to protect aquatic life from the effects associated

with flow alteration. Nonflowing waters (lakes or wetlands, for example) and nonfreshwater systems

(estuaries, tidal waters) are  not discussed in this report, nor are other designated uses such as recreation or

drinking water, although they also can be affected by hydrologic alteration and can benefit from measures to

maintain hydrologic conditions.

This report was developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in collaboration with the U.S.

Geological Survey (USGS) in  response to evidence that flow alteration has adversely affected the biological

integrity of water bodies throughout the United States (Bunn and Arthington, 2002; Carlisle and others, 2010;

Poff and Zimmerman, 2010). The information presented is drawn from the Guidelines for Ecological Risk

Assessment (ERA) (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1998), relevant environmental flows literature (for

example, Bunn and Arthington, 2002;  Petts, 2009; Poff and Zimmerman, 2010), and the experience of states

and tribes that have adopted narrative flow criteria to protect aquatic life uses in their waters.

3.2  Overview

Section 4 is a summary of available scientific information  about the effects of flow alteration on ecosystems,

including the role of climate change, which can exacerbate the stresses that result from flow alteration.

Section 5 is an overview of CWA programs that are applicable to maintaining hydrologic conditions that

protect aquatic life. It provides state and tribal examples  of flow considerations and management approaches

that promote the sustainability of aquatic ecosystems,  including a  review of existing state and tribal narrative
                                                                                                 13

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flow criteria. Section 6 presents concepts, tools, and examples that may be useful for translating narrative flow




criteria into quantitative flow targets. It includes examples of quantification to support states, authorized




tribes, and territories (hereinafter, "states") that wish to adopt flow criteria to protect aquatic life designated




uses in their WQS regulations. It also describes the potential role of narrative criteria as a tool to manage flow




to restore and maintain aquatic ecosystems. Appendix A is general review of the CWA and WQS, and Appendix




B provides a brief overview of the legal background and relevant case law relating to flow protection for




support of aquatic life designated uses.





Climate change is one category among a range of stressors that is likely to increase the vulnerability of rivers




and streams to flow alteration and affect the ecosystem services they provide (see Section 4.3.6). Given the




inherent difficulties associated with climate change assessment, many natural-resource management agencies




will likely encounter increasing challenges as they work to protect and restore the health of aquatic




ecosystems. Appendix C provides examples of vulnerability assessments of freshwater aquatic life and




environmental flows related to climate change.





3.3   Who Can Use This Information?





This report presents scientific information that can help water-resource managers improve the protection of




flow for aquatic life uses. Additionally, it serves as a source of information for a broad stakeholder audience




involved in water-resource management and aquatic life protection.  It does not establish any new authorities




or impose any additional requirements on states, tribes, or territories. Under the CWA, any state or authorized




tribe may protect aquatic life or use the CWA state programs to address flow (see Section 5) and develop




numeric flow targets by following a flexible, nonprescriptive framework described in this report (see Section 6)




to protect aquatic life.
                                                                                                  14

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4   Effects of Altered Flow on Aquatic Life





This section describes the scientific principles of the natural flow regime, hydrologic alteration, and ecological




responses to altered flows and presents a general conceptual model of the effects of flow alteration on




aquatic life. Potential causes of various types of streamflow change are outlined and pathways to degraded




biological conditions are discussed.





4.1  Conceptual Model of the Biological Effects of Flow Alteration





In ecological risk assessment (Box B, below), a conceptual model consists of a written description and diagram




of the relations and pathways between human activities (sources), stressors, and direct and indirect effects on




ecological entities (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1998). A conceptual model links one or more




stressors to ecological  assessment endpoints that are important for achieving management goals. Under the




CWA, management goals are established by states as designated uses of waters (for example, to support




aquatic life) and criteria to protect those uses.






Box B.  Ecological Risk Assessment





Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) provides a framework for evaluating the likelihood that adverse ecological




effects may occur or are occurring as a result of exposure to one or more stressors (U.S. Environmental




Protection Agency, 1998). It can apply to a range of environmental problems associated with chemical,




physical, and biological stressors,  including evaluating the risk posed to aquatic life by flow alteration. A key




step in the first phase of the ERA process, problem formulation, is the development of a conceptual model




that explicitly demonstrates the hypothesized relations between ecological entities and the stressors to which




they may be exposed.






The conceptual model  (Figure 2) describes in a general way how various stressors can alter the natural flow




regime, how flow alteration affects the chemical and physical conditions of an aquatic ecosystem, and how





                                                                                                 15

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those changes may ultimately reduce the ability of a stream to support aquatic life. The general model is

intended only to provide a foundation for detailed regional or catchment models; for a specific area, specific

types of flow alteration and biological responses should be identified.

The general conceptual model of the biological effects of flow alteration presented in this report (Figure 2) is a

broad framework relating streamflow alteration and its sources to degraded aquatic life. The model is

constructed around the following concepts and relations:

«  A stream's natural flow regime is primarily a function of climate and physical catchment-scale properties,

   and is further affected by local, reach-scale conditions.

•  The natural flow regime supports the integrity of aquatic life by maintaining habitat of sufficient size,

   character, diversity, and connectivity by supporting natural sediment, water-temperature, and water-

   chemistry regimes and by providing cues for spawning, migration, and other life-history strategies.

«  A variety of human activities that change pathways and rates of runoff, modify channel storage and

   dimensions, or directly add water to or remove water from streams can alter the natural flow regime.

«  Alteration of the natural flow regime leads to changes in water temperature and chemistry and (or) the

   physical properties of streams and adjacent riparian areas and flood plains. Feedback between altered

   flow and altered physical properties can further modify flow characteristics. Changes to stream chemical

   and physical condition following flow alteration can lead to the reduction, elimination, or disconnection of

   optimal habitat for aquatic biota.

•  Biological responses to flow-mediated changes in stream chemistry and physical  habitat can have

   cascading effects across trophic levels and aquatic communities, which may result in degraded aquatic life

   as determined by measures of effect (for example, survival, growth, and reproduction of aquatic biota).

The following sections describe the components of the general conceptual model. A detailed conceptual

model of flow alteration with explicit directional relations is provided in Section 6.4.  For detailed conceptual
                                                                                                  16

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models developed for the EPA Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System (CADDIS), see U.S.
Environmental  Protection Agency (2012a)
                         |
                                                    Natural hydroloqic regime
   Climate
  Topography
  Soil texture
(Catchment scale)
   Position in river network
Channel and valley morphology
   Groundwater dynamics
       (Local scale)
                                Altered flow magnitude, timing, duration, frequency, and rate of change

                                        Landusa       Discharges       Dam sand impoundments
                                    Climate change     Levees/channelization      Impervious surfaces
                                    Divarsions/interbasin transfers    Surface- and groundwaterwithdrawals
                                      Sediment and turbidity
                              Salinity, dissolved oxygen, and temperature
                                       Nutrients and toxics
                                      (Change in malar quality)
                                Depth, width, slope, and sinuosity
                                 Substrata texture and stability
                                  Velocity and residence time
                                  IChange in physical properties!1
                                 Adverse effects on survival, growth, and reproduction of aquatic life
                                                Change in reproductive success and timing
                                                      Change in food availability
                                                  Change in competition and predation
                                                   Change in physiology and behavior
          Figure 2. Schematic diagram illustrating a generalized conceptual model of the biological effects of
          flow alteration.
                                                                                                                             17

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4.2  Drivers of the Natural Flow Regime





The natural flow regime is the characteristic pattern of flow in a stream under natural conditions. Poff and




others (1997) present five components of the natural flow regime that are critical to aquatic ecosystems:





•  the magnitude of flow over a given time interval (for example, average flow rate [reported in either cubic




   feet per second or cubic meters per second] during the month of April, or the spring season);





«  the frequency with which flow is above or below a threshold value (for example, the number of times that




   flow exceeds the long-term average in one year);





•  the duration of a flow condition over a given time interval (for example, the number days in a year during




   which the flow exceeds some value);





•  the timing of a flow condition (for example, the date of the annual peak flow); and





«  the rate of change of flow (for example, how rapidly flow increases during a storm event).





A stream's natural flow regime is largely a function of the climate and physical properties of its unique




upstream drainage area (catchment1). Climate determines patterns of water and energy input over time,




whereas physical catchment characteristics such as soils, geology, and topography determine infiltration




pathways (surface or subsurface) and rates of runoff and routing of streamflow through the drainage network.




For example, a large proportion of rainfall in a catchment dominated by steep slopes and poorly-permeable




soils will  be converted to surface runoff that is quickly routed through the channel network. The flow regime




of a stream in such a catchment would be characterized by high peak flows relative to average conditions, high




rates of streamflow change during and after storm events, and relatively  low dry-weather flows. In contrast, in
1 The term "catchment" throughout this report refers specifically to the unique drainage area upstream from a stream reach of




interest. Although the term "watershed" also fits this definition, catchment is used in this report because managers use the term




"watershed" to describe larger geographic or planning units within a state or region.





                                                                                                  18

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a catchment dominated by well-drained soils, peak flows would more closely match average flows as a result




of higher rates of infiltration and groundwater routing to the stream channel.





Although the natural flow regime is driven primarily by catchment-scale properties, flow characteristics are




also affected by local-scale drivers specific to individual stream reaches and the location of the reach within




the river network. Heterogeneity of local topography and geology, for example, can result in variable




groundwater inputs among reaches with similar catchment-scale properties. Other potential local-scale drivers




of the natural flow regime include channel morphology and riparian vegetation, although such characteristics




are themselves affected by the flow regime.





4.3  Sources of Flow Alteration





The natural flow regime is driven by both catchment and local properties; human activities that alter the




natural flow regime also occur at both of these scales. Changes to water quantity (flow volume) may result in




loss of the designated use, such as when perennial streams or rivers are anthropogenically dewatered or




intermittent streams are dewatered permanently or well beyond their natural variability. This section




describes the major potential sources of flow alteration and their typical effects on the natural flow regime.




Other sources of flow alteration (for example,  artificial perennialization of intermittent streams [see Section




4.3.4]) may need to be considered depending on local or regional circumstances.





Recent assessments indicate that streamflow alteration is pervasive in the Nation's streams and rivers. In a




national assessment, the USGS found that human alteration of waterways has affected the magnitude of




minimum and maximum streamflows in more than 86 percent of monitored streams (Carlisle and others,




2013). In addition, human-caused depletion of minimum and maximum flows was associated with a twofold
                                                                                                 19

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increase in the likelihood of effects on fish and macroinvertebrate communities 2 (Carlisle and others, 2011).




Sources of such effects may include groundwater and surface-water withdrawals, new and existing dams,




impoundments and reservoirs, interbasin transfers, channelization, impervious cover, and water diversions.




Human adaptations to increased drought, including expansion of surface- and groundwater uses, may




compound these effects by decreasing the magnitude of low flows and increasing the frequency and duration




of low flows in streams and rivers. Alterations in high flows can affect use; for instance, an increase  in




impervious surface area may cause an increase in flow, resulting in deleterious alterations to habitat or the




biological  community. The following sections describe potential stressors in more detail.





4.3.1   Dams and Impoundments





Dams and impoundments (for example, reservoirs) are designed to control and store streamflow for various




purposes and can provide multiple societal benefits through increased recreation opportunities, flood




attenuation, hydroelectric power, irrigation, public water supply, and transportation. However, dams are also




a cause of flow alteration throughout the United States, as only about 40 large rivers (defined as longer than




200 kilometers) remain free-flowing (Benke, 1990). At a national scale, when interregional flow variation




before and after dam construction is compared, streams below dams can be subject to reduced high flows,




augmented low flows, reduced seasonal variation, and other changes relative  to predam conditions, resulting




in a regional homogenization of the flow regime (Poff and others, 2007). At a finer scale,  however, within a




more  homogenous hydroclimatic region, dams can create new flow regimes (McManamay and others, 2012).
2 Carlisle and others (2011) use the term "impairment" to describe this effect on the aquatic community, defining it as occurring when




the value of the ratio of the observed condition to the expected reference condition (0/E) was less than that at 90 percent of




reference sites within the same region. The aquatic community at a site was considered "unimpaired" when the 0/E did not meet this




condition. Although the term "impairment" is used in the original publication, the term "affected" is used for the purposes of this




report to avoid confusion with the specific use of the term "impaired" in CWA programs.





                                                                                                   20

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The ecological costs of controlling natural flows can have wide-ranging effects on the chemical, physical, and




biological integrity of streams and rivers (Collier and others, 1996; Dynesius and Nilsson, 1994; Magilligan and




Nislow; 2005; Poff and others, 2007; Wang and others, 2011; Zimmerman and others, 2010). The various types




of effects are highly dependent on dam purpose, size, and release operations (Poff and Hart, 2002).





As of 2013, more than 87,000 dams were represented in the U.S. National Inventory of Dams (NID) (U.S. Army




Corps of Engineers, 2013). Not included in this total are small impoundments for farm ponds, fishing ponds,




community amenities that fragment stream networks (for example, impoundments less than 2 meters [m]




high), and larger dams that have not yet been included in the national database. New geographic information




system (CIS)  and remote-sensing tools are used to identify the extent and number of small impoundments,




which may be in the tens of thousands per state. For example, a study in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint




River Basin in the southeastern United States identified the  presence of more than 25,362 impoundments




(Ignatius and Stallins, 2011), whereas the NID database recognized 1,415 (fewer than 6 percent of the




reported total) in the same basin. The extensive presence of dams with impoundment heights greater than 2




m on United  States waterways in the NID (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 2013) is shown in Figure 3. Estimates




made by Poff and Hart (2002), identify more than 2,000,000 dams across the country which includes small and




large sized dams.





Studies have shown that dam reregulation (when operational guidelines for the dam are modified to address




environmental  management concerns about downstream fisheries, riparian habitats, recreation, flow, etc.)




has the potential to restore ecological function downstream of dams. Although the ability to modify




operations varies on the basis of the type and purpose of the dam (that is, hydropower, flood control,




irrigation, etc.), virtually all dams, regardless of size, have the potential to be modified (Arthington, 2012).




Since 2000, large-scale flow experiments have become an important component of water-management




planning, with considerably more than 100 large-scale flow experiments documented worldwide, including 56





                                                                                               21

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in the United States alone (Olden and others, 2014). Alterations to dam operations, including changes in the




magnitude, frequency, and duration of high-flow events; changes to minimum releases; and alteration of




reservoir drawdown regimes or restoration of flows to bypassed reaches; can result in ecological benefits,




including recovery of fish and shellfish, improved water quality, reactivation of flood-plain storage, and




suppression of non-native species (Konrad and others, 2011; Olden and others, 2014; Richter and Thomas,




2007). Key components of successful dam reregulation include clearly articulating objectives and expectations




prior to beginning reregulation, inclusion  of a process to monitor or model the short -and long-term effects of




proposed release operations, and the ability to adaptively manage the dam operations (Konrad and others,




2011; Richter and Thomas, 2007).
                                                                                                 22

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                         EXPLANATION
                      Dam with impoundment height
                        greater than 2 meters
                                                          0   250   500 KILOMETERS
             Base from U.S. Census Bureau cartographic boundary file, 2013,1:500,000
             Albers Equal-Area Conic projection
             Standard parallels 29°30'N and 45°30'N
             Central meridian 96°00'W
Figure 3. Map showing dams in the conterminous United States listed in the National Inventory of Dams

(NID) (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 2013). The NID database contains the most comprehensive set of dam

information in the United States and lists dams with an impoundment height greater than 2 meters.
                                                                                                          23

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4.3.2   Diversions





In contrast to dams and reservoirs that store water and sustain releases, diversions remove a specified volume




of flow from a stream channel as needed. Diversions include permanent or temporary structures and water




pumps designed to divert water to ditches, canals, or storage structures. Diverted waters are used for




hydropower, irrigation, municipal, and (or) industrial purposes. Permanent infrastructure to convey diverted




waters (pipelines, canals, ditches, etc.) exists throughout the United States; a large number of these structures




are found in certain areas of the country (Figure 4).





The effects of diversions on the flow regime depend on the quantity and timing of the diversion (for example,




see Figure 5) (Bradford and Heinonen, 2008). Although the largest diversions by volume occur during storm




events, a greater proportion of flow is generally removed during low-flow periods, when plants and wildlife




are already under stress. Although diversions result in an immediate decrease in downstream flow magnitude,




some of the diverted water may eventually return to the stream as irrigation return flow or point-source




discharge (see Section 4.3.4). This is not the case, however, for interbasin water transfers, a distinct class of




diversion in which water is  transported out of one basin and used in another. Regardless of the fate of the




water, the quantity and timing of the diversion can alter the natural flow regime.
                                                                                                 24

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                      EXPLANATION
                    Water-conveyance structure

                      Canal or ditch

                      Pipeline
                                                              0   250  500 KILOMETERS
             Base from U.S. Census Bureau cartograpriic boundary file, 2013,1:500,000
             Alters Equal-Area Conic projection
             Standard parallels 29>30'N and 45°3Q'N
             Central meridian 96COQ'W
Figure 4. Map showing location of water-conveyance structures in the medium-resolution National

Hydrography Dataset (NHD) (U.S. Geological Survey, 2012), illustrating the widespread extent of canals,

ditches, and pipelines in the conterminous United States.
                                                                                                                25

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           350
           300
           250
         - ISO
            ICC
            50'
          EXPLANATION
        — Upstream of diversion
           Downstream of diversion
                     May
                                    June
July
2010
August
September
Figure 5. Graph showing streamflow at Halfmoon Creek, Colorado (U.S. Geological Survey station number
7083000), May-September, 2010. (Streamgages are located upstream and immediately downstream from
the diversion structure. Diverted water is stored in a nearby reservoir for irrigation.)
4.3.3   Groundwater Withdrawals

Most surface-water features interact with shallow groundwater, serving as points of discharge or recharge to
local and regional aquifers. In many parts of the United States, groundwater contributes to streamflow and is
the primary natural source of water during periods without substantial precipitation and runoff. Groundwater
is also a major source of water for irrigation,  public water supplies, and industrial use. Groundwater
withdrawals can lower the water table, resulting in reduced discharge to streams (Reeves and others, 2009;
                                                                                                  26

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Winter and others, 1998; Zarriello and Ries, 2000; Zorn and others, 2008). Once thought to be limited to the




arid west, groundwater depletion has been identified throughout the United States. The rate of groundwater




depletion continues to increase and has been recognized globally as a threat to sustainability of water supplies




(Konikow, 2013). Groundwater withdrawals for irrigation increase during drought, when the only source of




streamflow may be base flows from groundwater. The ecological effects of reduced groundwater




contributions to streamflow, like those of other reductions in stream base flows, include the desiccation of




aquatic and riparian habitat, reduced velocities and increased sedimentation, increased water temperature,




and reduced connectivity of the stream network (discussed in Sections 4.4 and 4.5). These effects are




exacerbated by groundwater demand, which spikes at times of the year when adequate flows are needed to




support important biological behaviors and processes (for example, in summer when certain fish migrate and




reproduce).





4.3.4   Effluents and Other Artificial Inputs (Discharges)





In contrast to diversions, surface- and groundwater withdrawals, and other human activities that remove




water from streams, discharge (effluent) from  industrial and municipal wastewater-treatment facilities and tile




drainage systems add water to streams and can alter natural  flow patterns. For example, the effects on




streamflow are amplified when artificial discharges consist of water that is not part of the natural water




budget of the stream, such as deep groundwater or water derived from other basins, as in the case of




interbasin transfers (Jackson and others, 2001). Such exogenous contributions shift the hydrograph upward




and may be especially noticeable during natural low-flow periods as well as during flood flows resulting from




storm events (Figure 6). This flow augmentation distorts the flow-sediment balance characteristic of




undisturbed catchments, leading to effects such as channel downcutting and bank erosion as the stream




strives to attain a new balance between water and sediment  flux (as discussed in Section 4.4.1). In many arid




environments,  streamflow during dry seasons is composed almost entirely of treated effluent from






                                                                                                27

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wastewater-treatment facilities (Brooks and others, 2006). These inputs can cause a change in the stability of

natural systems by artificially raising the water level during low-flow periods.
          1.6
       a
       I  1.4
          U
       S  1-0
          0.8
       I  0-6
          0.4
       8  0.2
    EXPLANATION
   	 Sixth Water Creek

       Reference stream
               Jan.    Feb.     Mar.     Apr.     May    June    July
Aug.     Sept.
                                                                            Oct
                                                                                  Nov.
                                                                                         Dec.
Figure 6. Graph showing artificially augmented daily streamflow at Sixth Water Creek, Utah (U.S. Geological
Survey station number 10149000), January-December, 2000.
4.3.5   Land-Cover Alteration (Land Use)

The alteration of natural land cover for agricultural, forestry, industrial, mining, or urban use can modify

several hydrologic processes that govern the amount and timing of runoff from the land surface, as well as

other important processes and characteristics (for example, sediment dynamics, temperature). Such land-

cover alterations may involve the removal of or change in vegetation cover, construction of impervious

surfaces (for example, parking lots and rooftops), land grading, stream-channel alteration, or construction of

engineered drainage systems. These changes reduce the potential for precipitation to be stored in shallow
depressions and soils (Blann and others, 2009; Konrad and Booth, 2005) and allow a greater fraction of
                                                                                                   28

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precipitation to enter stream channels through surface runoff, rather than infiltrate into the ground or




evaporate. Moreover, engineered drainage systems (for example, municipal stormwater systems) and road




networks can directly route runoff to receiving waters, increasing the rate of change to streamflow during a




storm event. As a result, streams in developed areas exhibit extreme flashiness, characterized by a rapid rise in




flow during storm events to a high peak-flow rate followed by rapid recession of flow after precipitation




ceases (Dunne and Leopold,  1978; Walsh and others, 2005a, 2005b).





In addition, impervious surfaces reduce base flow in the days or weeks after a storm event as a result of




reduced infiltration and groundwater recharge. In agricultural areas, the opposite effect is observed with




subsurface drainage structures (or tile drains), which discharge groundwater that would otherwise be held in




storage or lost through evapotranspiration. However, agricultural drainage systems can reduce base flow,




particularly when drainage lowers the water table and decreases groundwater recharge (Blann and others,




2009). During prolonged drought, differences in low-flow conditions between developed and natural streams




generally are less pronounced than during average or high-flow conditions because developed areas tend to




have a smaller effect on the deep groundwater recharge that supports flow during drought  conditions than on




the shallow groundwater and runoff that contribute water to a stream when precipitation is more plentiful




(Konrad and Booth, 2005).





Urban and agricultural land uses can accompany water-use and management practices such as interbasin




transfers, irrigation and other surface-water withdrawals, on-site wastewater disposal, impoundment, and




groundwater pumping. Each of these practices affects the direction and magnitude of flow alteration in urban




and agricultural streams and can  compound hydrologic effects,  as discussed previously.





The effects of surface mining on streamflow are highly localized and depend on the catchment characteristics




and vegetative cover, the geology of the mine and degree of valley fills, the extent of underground mines and




sediment ponds, and the amount of soil compaction and infiltration. Mining has been  found to increase peak




                                                                                                29

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flows, unless other transport pathways, such as substantial connections to underground mines, intercept the




stormwater discharges to streams (Messinger, 2003).





Finally, management activities in natural areas can cause flow alteration. Timber harvesting in forested areas




generally increases peak flows and base flows as a result of decreased evapotranspiration and increased




snowpack resulting from decreased canopy interception (Harrand others, 1982; Hewlett and Hibbert, 1961).




These effects are temporary and are dependent on the size and type of harvest and the rate of vegetation




regeneration.





4.3.6   Climate Change





Climate change is an important and complex source of flow alteration because of the broad geographic extent




of its effects and  the lack of management options for direct mitigation at the watershed scale. Recent climate




trends have included rising ambient air and water temperatures, increased frequency of extreme weather




such as heavy precipitation events, increased intensity of droughts, longer growing seasons, and reductions in




snow and ice, all  of which are expected to continue in the coming years and decades (Karl and others, 2009).




Some of these changes have occurred or are projected to occur throughout the United  States, such as




increases in the frequency of very heavy precipitation events during the 20th century (Melillo and others,




2014). Other changes have been or are projected to be limited to certain regions, such  as a  projected increase




in winter and spring  precipitation in the northern United States and a decrease in winter and spring




precipitation in the southwestern United States (Melillo and others, 2014).





Each of these aspects of climate change can substantially alter historic flow patterns. Projected nationwide




increases in the frequency of heavy storm events and summer droughts have the potential to result in more




frequent flooding and extreme low flows in streams and rivers across the  United States. Specific effects on




streamflows, however, will vary by region on the basis of regional climate change and hydrologic regimes. For




example, observed trends in the magnitude of 7-day low flows at streamgauges with minimal landscape




                                                                                                 30

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effects vary across the United States, with some regions exhibiting a trend of decreasing low flows (longer dry




spells) and others trending toward higher low flows (Figure 7) (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2014b).




Anthropogenic alterations that reduce streamflow may be further exacerbated by this climate-change trend.




In areas where flow regimes are strongly affected by snowmelt, observations show a trend toward earlier




timing of spring high flows (Figure 8) that corresponds to declines in the spring snowpack and earlier




snowmelt (Melillo and others, 2014). These examples demonstrate the exposure of aquatic ecosystems to




climate-driven flow alteration. Exposure analysis is an essential part of an assessment of the vulnerability of




aquatic life to climate change. Additional discussion and examples of climate-change vulnerability assessments




related to altered flow and aquatic life are included in Appendix C.





Climate change is occurring in conjunction with other anthropogenic stressors related to population increase




and land-use change and may magnify the hydrologic and biological effects of those existing stressors




(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007; Karl and others,  2009; Kundzewicz and others, 2008;




Palmer and others, 2009; Pittock and Finlayson, 2011). For example, the combination of earlier spring




snowmelt and increased water withdrawals can reduce summer flows to levels that would not otherwise




occur in response to either stressor alone and that reduce the survival of aquatic biota. An additional example




is the compounding effect of increased storm intensity on flood frequency in areas where impervious cover




already drives flood flows at a frequency that degrades stream habitat (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate




Change, 2007). These and other changes to the flow regime may further benefit invasive species to the




detriment of native species (Rahel and Olden, 2008).





Adaptive capacity, or the ability of a stream ecosystem to withstand climate-driven stresses, may be seen in




rivers whose flow patterns more closely resemble the natural flow regime. These rivers may be buffered from




the harmful effects of climate-related disturbances on aquatic life (Palmer, 2009; Pittock and Finlayson, 2011).
                                                                                                31

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Understanding and enhancing adaptive capacity, along with an assessment of climate-change vulnerability, is

a key part of climate-change adaptation planning.
                      EXPLANATION
                  Decrease greater than 50 percent
               V  Decrease greater than 20 percent
                    but less than 60 percent

               o  Decrease less than 20 percent
                    or increase less than 20 percent

               A  Increase greater than 20 percent
                    but less than 50 percent

              /\ Increase greater than 50 percent
                                                              0   250   500 KILOMETERS
             Base from U.S. Census Bureau cartographic boundary file. 2013,1:500,01)0
             Albers Equal-Area Conic projection
             Standard parallels 29r30'N and 45°30'N
             Central meridian 96'WW
Figure 7. Map showing trends in the magnitude of 7-day low streamflows in the United States, 1940-2009.

(Minimum streamflow is based on data from 193 long-term U.S. Geological Survey streamgages over the 70-

year period whose drainage basins are only minimally affected by changes in land use and water use.

Modified from U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2014b)
                                                                                                            32

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                    EXPLANATION
                Timing of winter-spring runoff,
                  in number of days earlier

               o  Less than or equal to 2

               T  Greater than 2 to 5

              V  Greater than 5 to 10

                 Greater than 10
     i     r
0   250   500 KILOMETERS
            Base from U.S. Census Bureau cartographic boundary file, 2013,1:500,000
            Albers Equal-Area Cunic projection
            Standard parallels 29P3Q'N and 45^30'N
            Central meridian 96
-------
4.4  Physical and Chemical Effects of Flow Alteration





Changes to the natural flow regime resulting from land-use and water-management practices can affect




physical and chemical properties of riverine ecosystems, including geomorphology, connectivity, and water




quality (Annear and others, 2004). This section provides an overview of the effects of flow alteration on each




of these properties.





4.4.1   Effects on Geomorphology





The geomorphology of stream channels and flood plains is shaped largely by natural flow patterns.




Geomorphology is the expression of the balance between flow strength (for example, flow magnitude, slope)




and flow resistance and sediment supply (for example, grain size, vegetation, sediment load), with a tendency




toward channel erosion and degradation when flow strength increases and a tendency toward channel




deposition and aggradation when flow resistance and sediment supply increase. Channel geometry, bed




substrate, and the presence of geomorphic features such as oxbow lakes, point bars, or riffle-pool sequences




vary according to the frequency of bankfull flows, the magnitude of floods, and other flow characteristics




(Trush and others, 2000). Research has uncovered a variety of geomorphic responses to flow alteration, with




specific effects depending on the type and severity of streamflow change. These effects can include channel




incision, narrowing, or widening; increased deposition of fine sediment or bed armoring (coarsening); and




reduced channel migration (Poff and others, 1997).





A primary mechanism for geomorphic change is a shift in energy and sediment dynamics following flow




alteration. For example, increased peak flows resulting from urban land use can increase bed erosion and




drive channel incision or widening. In  contrast, reduced flooding as a result of dam regulation can lower the




distribution of nutrient-bearing sediments to flood plains,  starve downstream channel and coastal areas of




needed sediment, and increase sedimentation upstream from the dam (Syvitski and others, 2005). These




processes can lead to simplified channels that are disconnected from their natural flood plains. Natural




                                                                                                34

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mosaics of geomorphic features serve as important habitats for a range of aquatic and flood-plain species, and




the loss of habitat diversity following hydrologic alteration can have adverse effects on the health of biological




communities.





4.4.2   Effects on Connectivity





Hydrologic connectivity is the water-mediated transfer of matter, energy, and (or) organisms within or




between elements of a hydrologic system (Pringle, 2003). In aquatic ecosystems, it encompasses longitudinal




connectivity of the stream network and specific habitat types, as well as lateral connectivity among stream




channels, riparian zones, flood plains, and wetlands. The vertical connection between surface water and




groundwater is a third dimension of connectivity along the various flow paths that connect points of recharge




(beginning at the water table) to points of discharge (for example, a river or stream) (Ward, 1989).





Longitudinal, lateral, and vertical connectivity naturally vary spatially and temporally with climate,




geomorphology, groundwater dynamics, and other factors. Longitudinal connectivity, for example, may be




continuous from headwaters to lower reaches in one catchment but interrupted by intermittent or ephemeral




reaches in another (Larned and others, 2010a, 2010b, 2011). Lateral connectivity is restricted to short-




duration flooding of narrow riparian areas in headwater reaches, whereas meandering and braided lower




reaches are subject to longer periods of inundation over broader flood plains (Ward and Stanford, 1995).




Aquatic biota  have adapted to connectivity patterns through space and time, with life-history traits such as




migration and spawning closely linked to the timing, frequency, and duration of upstream-downstream and




channel/flood-plain connections (Junk and others, 1986; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2015).





Flow alteration can affect connectivity in several ways. Longitudinal connectivity of the stream network is




disrupted by dams, weirs, diversions, and other manmade structures that obstruct upstream-downstream




passage by fish and other organisms. Longitudinal connectivity is also disrupted by fragmentation of aquatic




habitat without manmade barriers. For example, an increase in the frequency of zero-flow conditions in a




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stream reach as a result of water withdrawals can cause the disconnection of upstream areas from the rest of




the stream network (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2015). Lateral connectivity among the stream




channel, riparian areas, flood plains, and wetlands is reduced as a result of the decreased frequency of high




flows and floods caused by geomorphic change (for example, channel incision) or of direct modification of




stream channels (channelization, levee construction, etc.). Vertical connectivity is altered directly and




indirectly through practices that alter infiltration and runoff (for example, irrigation return flow), which can




affect recharge to groundwater and outflow to surface water. Other activities (for example, drainage)  can alter




surface-runoff rates and potentially reduce recharge and contribute to flooding. Other practices may cause a




rise in the water table and, subsequently, the base level of a stream (for example, reservoirs) (Winter and




others, 1998). For systems characterized by an absence of connectivity, flow alterations such as stream




channelization, irrigation, and impervious surface area can increase flashiness and increase connectivity (U.S.




Environmental Protection Agency, 2015).





4.4.3  Effects on Water Temperature and Chemistry





The water quality effects of flow alteration are varied  and can include changes in water temperature, salinity




(which is measured by specific conductance), dissolved-oxygen concentration, pH, nutrient concentrations,




and other parameters. For example, dilution of dissolved salts or toxic contaminants are reduced  because of a




decrease in flow magnitude when water is diverted or groundwater is pumped (Caruso, 2002; Olden and




Naiman, 2010; Sheng and Devere, 2005). Stream temperature is also closely linked to flow magnitude  (Cassie,




2006; Gu and Li, 2002; Wehrly and others, 2006); artificially low flows can result in increased water




temperatures as a result of reduced depths and (or) reduced input of cool groundwater. Low flows also




increase the likelihood of stagnant water with a low dissolved-oxygen concentration. In contrast, dam




tailwaters can become supersaturated with gases and harm aquatic life (Weitkamp and Katz, 1980).




Additionally, dam tailwaters,  particularly those drawing water from the depths of stratified reservoirs, show






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elevated levels of nutrients and metals, low dissolved-oxygen concentrations, and altered temperature




relative to downstream waters (Arnwine, 2006; De Jalon and others, 1994; McCartney, 2009; Olden and




Naiman, 2010; Poff and Hart, 2002; Preece and Jones, 2002; Sherman and others, 2007; Vorosmarty and




others, 2003). Thermal regime modifications can include an increase in temperatures when warm water is




released from the reservoir surface (common in smaller dams and diversions), or lower temperatures when




water is released from beneath a reservoir's thermocline (Olden and Naiman, 2010). In urban areas, stream




temperatures are elevated during high-flow conditions (constituting an increase in the rate of change) as a




result of the input of runoff that has come in contact with warm impervious surfaces. Moreover, runoff from




developed lands can transport nutrients, organic matter, sediment, bacteria, metals, and other contaminants




to streams (Grimm and others, 2005; Hatt and others, 2004; Morgan and Good, 1988; Mulholland and others,




2008; Paul and Meyer, 2001). Effects may differ among water-body types (for example, lentic and lotic




waters).





4.5   Biological Responses to Flow Alteration





The combined physical and chemical effects of flow alteration (summarized in the previous section) may result




in the degradation,  loss, and disconnection of ecological integrity within a stream system. Moreover, flow




modification can eliminate hydrologic cues needed to stimulate spawning or flow volume and timing needed




to aid seed dispersal, resulting in a mismatch between flow and species' life-history needs, and can encourage




the  invasion and establishment of non-native species (Bunn and Arthington, 2002). The ability of a water body




to support healthy aquatic life  is therefore tied to the maintenance of key flow-regime components.





Specific biological effects of a given type of flow alteration vary by location and degree of alteration; however,




some generalities can be made. Literature summarizing biological responses to altered flows, compiled and




reviewed by Bunn and Arthington (2002) and Poff and Zimmerman (2010), includes studies showing overall




reductions in the abundance and diversity of fish and macroinvertebrates, excessive growth of aquatic





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macrophytes, reduced growth of riparian vegetation, and shifts in aquatic and riparian species composition.




These changes are tied to altered habitat. For example, the stabilization of flow downstream of dams tends to




reduce habitat diversity and, therefore, species diversity. Reduced longitudinal connectivity of habitat types




can reduce the survival of migratory fish species, and reduced lateral connectivity between stream channels




and flood-plain wetlands limits access to important reproduction and feeding areas, refugia, and rearing




habitat for native and resident fishes. Reduced lateral connectivity can reduce habitat needed for aquatic life




stages of macroinvertebrates and amphibians, and can reduce the potential for gene flow (mixing individuals




from different locations). Fish spawning is disrupted by changes to the natural seasonal pattern of flow. For




some fish species, spawning is triggered by rising flows in the spring; therefore, a shift in the timing of high




flows can result in aseasonal reproduction during periods when conditions for larval survival are suboptimal.




In addition, changes in species abundance and richness, ecosystem functions such as contaminant removal




and nutrient cycling rates, can degrade in the environment due to flow alteration (Palmer and Febria, 2012;




Poff and others, 1997).





The relations among variables such as flow, temperature, habitat features, and biology are key in controlling




species distribution (for example, Zorn and others, 2008). Water temperature is an  associated hydrologic




characteristic and has a particularly strong effect on aquatic organisms in summer months, when streamflows




are lowest and temperatures are highest (Brett, 1979; Elliot, 1981; Wehrly and others, 2003). Increases in




water temperature that result from alterations such as withdrawals, especially during critical summer low-




flow periods, have detrimental biological effects. Dam operations can have diverse  effects on biology through




modifying the thermal regime, and these modifications depend on the size, purpose, and release operations of




the dam. For example, depressed spring and summer temperatures due to dam releases from the deep, cool




layer in a stratified reservoir,  may result in delayed or reduced spawning of fish species or extirpation of native




warm-water biological communities in favor of cool- and cold-water assemblages (Olden,  2004; Preece  and






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Jones, 2002). Dam releases in the winter result in warmer water temperatures, which may eliminate
developmental cues and increase growth, leading to earlier aquatic insect emergence. These changes in
temperature can create a mismatch between life-history stages and environmental conditions that may
increase mortality as a result of high-flow events, predation, reduction in resource availability earlier in the
season, and other stresses (Olden and Naiman, 2010; Vannote and others, 1980; Ward and Stanford, 1982).

The result of these hydrologic alterations may be impairment of a water body due to the physical, chemical, or
biological effects discussed above. The most severe of alterations, the complete dewatering of a perennial
stream or river, will result in complete extirpation of aquatic species in those water bodies. In addition to
directly contributing to impairments through ecologically deleterious physical changes (that is, hydrologic,
geomorphic, and connectivity change), hydrologic alteration may also be the underlying source of other
impairments such as low dissolved oxygen, modified thermal regimes, increased concentrations of sediment,
anoxic byproducts (such as downstream of dams), and nutrients or toxic contaminants. While the focus of this
report is primarily on those direct physical factors (for example, geomorphic and hydrologic) that can affect
biological communities, addressing these hydrologic alterations may also help to mitigate the effects of
contaminants such as those mentioned above.

The following section (Section 5) provides some examples of State actions within a CWA framework to protect
aquatic life from flow alteration.

5   Examples of State and Federal Actions to Protect Aquatic Life from Altered Flows

States have CWA tools and  other tools that can address the effects of altered flows on aquatic life. This section
briefly discusses those programs that are within the CWA. The CWA was intended to protect the chemical,
physical, and biological integrity of the Nation's waters (see Box A). The two sections of the CWA related to
the development of the information presented in this report are CWA Sections 304(a)(2) and 304(f). CWA
Section 304(a)(2) generally requires EPA to develop and publish information on the factors necessary to
                                                                                                39

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restore and maintain the chemical, physical, and biological integrity of navigable waters. Section 304(a)(2) also




allows EPA to provide information on the conditions necessary for the protection and propagation of shellfish,




fish, and wildlife in receiving waters and for allowing recreational activities in and on the water3. CWA Section




304(f) requires EPA to issue information to control pollution resulting from, among other things, "changes in




the movement, flow, or circulation of any navigable waters."





CWA case law has affirmed that the distinction between water quantity and water quality is artificial and that




sufficient water quantity may be necessary in order to protect designated uses and meet antidegradation




requirements. Public Utility District No.  1 of Jefferson County v. Washington Department of Ecology, 511 U.S.




700, 719-721 (1994); S.D. Warren Co. v. Maine Board of Environmental Protection, 547 U.S. 370 (2006).




Additionally, the U.S. Supreme Court cited provisions in the CWA (Section 502(19))  recognizing that a




reduction in streamflow can constitute water pollution, including the CWA's definition of "pollution" as the




manmade or man-induced alteration of the chemical, physical, biological, and radiological integrity of water.




PUD No.l, 511 U.S. at 719. The Supreme Court held that this broad definition of pollution addresses the U.S.




Congress's concern regarding the physical and biological integrity of water, and refutes the  distinction




between water quantity and quality. Appendix B provides additional discussion of the legal  background and




relevant case law.
3 EPA notes that CWA Section 304(a)(2) is distinct from CWA Section 304(a)(l), which requires EPA to "develop and publish....criteria




for water quality accurately reflecting the latest scientific knowledge (A) on the kind and extent of all identifiable effects on health and




welfare including, but not limited to, plankton, fish, shellfish, wildlife, plant life, shorelines, beaches, esthetics, and recreation which




may be expected from the presence of pollutants in any body of water, including groundwater; (B) on the concentration and dispersal




of pollutants, or their byproducts, through biological, physical, and chemical processes; and (C) on the effects of pollutants on




biological community, diversity, productivity, and stability, including information on the factors affecting rates of eutrophication and




rates of organic and inorganic sedimentation for varying types of receiving waters."





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This section describes CWA programs that are used to address flow issues for aquatic life protection.
It provides illustrative case examples from states using the following six programs:

•   Water quality standards (WQS) (Section 5.1),

•   Monitoring and assessment of water bodies (Section 5.2),

•   Total maximum daily load (TMDL) development (Section 5.3),

•   Clean Water Act (CWA) 401 certifications (Section 5.4),

•   CWA Section 404 permits (Section 5.5)4, and

•   CWA Section 402 National Pollutant Elimination Discharge System (NPDES) permits (Section 5.6).

This section describes how these programs consider flow alteration to protect aquatic life. (An exhaustive

discussion of these CWA programs is beyond  the scope of this document; readers can learn more by accessing

available EPA resources as noted below5.) Water quality standards (WQS) play a central role in the other CWA

programs mentioned (see Figure 9) and therefore are discussed first. Additional information on WQS is found

in Appendix A.
4 The responsibility for administering and enforcing CWA Section 404 is shared by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the U.S. EPA

except in two states, Michigan and New Jersey, that have assumed CWA Section 404 responsibilities.

5 See Water Quality Standards Academy (http://water.epa.gov/learn/training/standardsacademy/index.cfm) and Watershed Academy

Water Law Modules (http://cfpub.epa.gov/watertrain/index.cfm).

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                                 Point-source
                              discharge permitting
 Targets for cleanup
   actions under
the Superfund program
                 Listing of
               impaired waters
            Nonpoint-source
             assessments
                Basis for certification of
                  and conditions for
                Federal permits/licenses
                                                    -quality
                                                standards
                      Targets for total
                    maximum daily load
                 Wet weather discharge
                    (combined sewer
                  overflows, stormwater)
             Area-wide waste
             treatment plans
                                            Reporting of condition
                                                 of waters
Figure 9. Schematic diagram illustrating water quality management programs based on water quality
standards under the Clean Water Act.
5.1   Narrative Criteria in State and Tribal Water Quality Standards

One set of CWA tools that states use to address the effects of hydrologic alteration on aquatic life is WQS,

which include designated uses, criteria, and antidegradation requirements. (A WQS overview is provided in

Appendix A.) The goals and provisions of the CWA and corresponding EPA regulations provide for states to

adopt narrative and (or) numeric chemical-specific criteria, as well as criteria that address the physical and

biological integrity of the Nation's waters (see CWA sections 101 and 303(c); see also Title 40 of the Code of

Federal Regulations (40 CFR) part 131.11(b)). This section presents examples of existing narrative flow criteria
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for states interested in developing or revising their own and some considerations for developing narrative




language.





As of 2014, 10 states had adopted narrative flow criteria in their WQS: New Hampshire, Rhode Island,




Vermont, New York, Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Louisiana, Missouri, and Oregon. Also as of 2014, six tribes




with Treatment in a  Manner Similar to a State (TAS) had adopted narrative flow criteria in their WQS. (Many




other authorized  tribes have adopted wetland flow criteria.) As of 2015, no United States territories have yet




adopted flow criteria in their WQS. Table 1 contains example language for State and Tribal flow criteria.6
6 For the full text of State water quality standards, please see the following U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Web site for links to




the most up-to-date information: http://water.epa.gov/scitech/swguidance/standards/wqslibrary/index.cfm.





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Table 1. Excerpts from narrative flow criteria for selected states and tribes.
[Key terms are shown in bold for emphasis; see U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (2014e) for complete text of individual criteria; %, percent; 7Q10,




the 7-day, 10-year annual low-flow statistic; WMT, Water Management Type; 1
  State/Tribe
New Hampshire
                               Water Quality Standard description of protected resource and corresponding goal
"surface water quantity shall be maintained at levels adequate to protect existing and designated uses"




"These rules shall apply to any person who causes point or nonpoint source discharge(s) of pollutants to surface waters, or who undertakes hydrologic




modifications, such as dam construction or water withdrawals, or who undertakes any other activity that affects the beneficial uses or the level of water




quality of surface waters."
Rhode Island
"quantity for protection of... fish and wildlife...adequate to protect designated uses"




"For activities that will likely cause or contribute to flow alterations, streamflow conditions must be adequate to support existing and designated uses."
Vermont
Class A(l)—"Changes from natural flow regime shall not cause the natural flow regime to be diminished, in aggregate, by more than 5% of 7Q10 at any




time;"




Class B WMT 1 Waters—"Changes from the natural flow regime, in aggregate, shall not result in natural flows being diminished by more than a minimal




amount provided that all uses are fully supported; and when flows are equal to or less than 7Q10, by not more than 5% of 7Q10."




Class A(2) Waters and  Class B Waters other than WMT1—"Any change from the natural flow regime shall provide for maintenance of flow characteristics




that ensure the full support of uses and comply with the applicable water quality criteria."
New York
Class N fresh surface waters ... 'There shall be no alteration to flow that will impair the waters for their best usages."
Virginia
"Man-made alterations in stream flow shall not contravene designated uses including protection of the propagation and growth of aquatic life."
Kentucky
Section 4. "Aquatic Life. (1) Warm water aquatic habitat. The following parameters and associated criteria shall apply for the protection of productive
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  State/Tribe
                 warm water aquatic communities, fowl, animal wildlife, arboreous growth, agricultural, and industrial uses:...(c) Flow shall not be altered to a degree which




                 will adversely affect the aquatic community."
Tennessee
Rule 0400-40-03-.03, Criteria for Water Uses: Section (3) The criteria for the use of Fish and Aquatic Life are the following, subsection (n) Habitat—'The




quality of stream habitat shall provide for the development of a diverse aquatic community that meets regionally-based biological integrity goals. Types of




habitat loss include, but are not limited to: channel and substrate alterations....stream flow changes....for wadeable streams, the instream habitat within




each subecoregion shall be generally similar to that found at reference streams. However, streams shall not be assessed as impacted by habitat loss if it




has been demonstrated that the biological integrity goal has been met." Subsection (o) Flow—"Stream or other waterbody flows shall support the fish and




aquatic life criteria."




"Section (4) The criteria for the use of Recreation are the following: Subsection (m) Flow—Stream flows shall support recreational uses."
Missouri
"Waters shall be free from physical, chemical, or hydrologic changes that would impair the natural biological community."
Seminole Tribe




of Florida
"Class 2-A waters shall be free from activities....that....impair the biological community as it naturally occurs....due to....hydrologic changes."
Bad River Band




of the Lake




Superior Tribe




of Chippewa




Indians
"Water quantity and quality that may limit the growth and propagation of, or otherwise cause or contribute to an adverse effect to wild rice, wildlife, and




other flora and fauna of cultural importance to the Tribe shall be prohibited."




"Natural hydrological conditions supportive of the natural biological community, including all flora and fauna, and physical characteristics naturally




present in the waterbody shall be protected to prevent any adverse effects."




"Pollutants or human-induced changes to Tribal waters, the sediments of Tribal waters, or area hydrology that results in changes to the natural biological




communities and wildlife habitat shall be prohibited. The migration offish and other aquatic biota normally present shall not be hindered.  Natural daily




and seasonal fluctuations of flow (including naturally occurring seiche), level, stage, dissolved oxygen, pH, and temperature shall be maintained."
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Table 1 demonstrates that narrative flow criteria are written in various ways. However, the language




commonly addresses two general components: (1) a description of the resource or attribute to be protected




and (or) protection goal; and (2) one or more statements describing the hydrologic condition needed to be




maintained to achieve the protection goal. The resource to be protected generally is an explicit reference to




aquatic life designated uses or general language that targets the protection of a suite of designated and (or)




existing uses (for example, "propagation and growth of aquatic life," "biological community as it naturally




occurs," "diverse aquatic community," etc.). For most existing narrative flow criteria, the flow condition to be




maintained is written in general terms (for example, "There shall be no alteration to flow....," "natural daily




and seasonal fluctuations in flow," etc.). The addition of language that references specific aquatic life




endpoints, such as migration or other life-cycle events,  may serve as important reminders of biological goals to




guide the selection of assessment endpoints, measures of effect (biological and flow indicators), and flow




targets to  meet aquatic life needs. These concepts are discussed in detail in Section 6. Additionally, EPA




recently reiterated that WQS (designated uses and criteria) must ensure attainment and  maintenance of




downstream WQS, including the hydrologic condition (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2014d).





More complete examples from New Hampshire and Rhode Island narrative flow criteria are as follows and




illustrate additional attributes these states chose to emphasize, such as broad applicability  across all surface




waters:





"Unless flows are caused by naturally occurring conditions, surface water quantity shall be  maintained at




levels adequate to protect existing and designated uses." (New Hampshire Code of Administrative Rules Env-




Wq 1703.01 (d)). "These rules shall apply to any person who causes point or nonpoint source discharge(s) of




pollutants to surface waters, or who undertakes hydrologic modifications, such as dam construction or water




withdrawals, or who undertakes any other activity that  affects the beneficial uses or the  level of water quality




of surface waters." (New Hampshire Code of Administrative Rules Env-Wq 1701.02 (b)).





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"General Criteria—The following minimum criteria are applicable to all waters of the State, unless criteria




specified for individual classes are more stringent:....(h). For activities that will likely cause or contribute to




flow alterations, streamflow conditions must be adequate to support existing and designated uses." (Rhode




Island Department of Environmental Management Water Quality Regulations (2010) Rule 8(D)(l)(h)).





Although the narrative examples in Table 1 may be useful tools to help states make informed decisions about




their water resources, they do not explicitly describe the specific components of the natural flow regime (that




is, magnitude, duration, frequency, rate of change, and timing) to be maintained to protect aquatic life uses.




The framework presented in Section 6 can help guide a state through a process to determine which of these




components are most important to protect the designated use. Box C describes the physical and biological




importance of considering the specific components of the natural flow regime in the development of




environmental flow targets rather than relying on a more general minimum flow magnitude to protect aquatic




life.
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Box C. Addressing Flow Regime Components





It is critically important to maintain extremes (floods and droughts) within the bounds of the natural flow




regime to support the ecological structure and function of streams and rivers. However, alterations in low or




high flows that are human-induced, affect and can control many ecosystem patterns, such as habitat extent




and condition, water quality, connectivity, and material and energy exchange. These patterns can in turn




affect many ecosystem processes, including biological composition, distribution, recruitment of biota, and




ecosystem production (Rolls and others, 2012).





Although low flows serve a critical role in ecosystem function, current scientific research indicates that flow




criteria ideally should support the natural flow regime as a whole, and that criteria for minimum flow alone




(that is, a single minimum discharge value or a minimum passing flow) are not sufficient for maintaining




ecosystem integrity (Annear and others, 2004; Bunn and Arthington, 2002; Poff and others, 1997). Minimum




flow criteria do not address the full range of seasonal and interannual variability of the natural flow regime in




most rivers and streams.





The natural fluctuation of water volume and  levels in rivers and streams is critical for maintaining aquatic




ecosystems because aquatic biota have developed life-history strategies in response to these fluctuations  (Hill




and others, 1991; Lytle and Poff, 2004; Mims and Olden, 2012, 2013;  Postel and Richter, 2003; Stalnaker,




1990). Comprehensive flow criteria not only identify flow needs (that is, magnitude) but may also address  the




rate, frequency, timing, and duration of streamflow required to support ecosystem health (Poff and  others,




2010). The Instream Flow Council (a non-profit organization working to improve the effectiveness of instream




flow programs and activities: http://www.instreamflowcouncil.org/) recommends developing criteria that




incorporate natural patterns of intra- and interannual variability in a manner that maintains and (or) restores




riverine form and function to effectively maintain ecological integrity (Annear and others, 2004). Therefore,




narrative hydrologic criteria and their  implementation ideally should address several flow-regime components




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(frequency, duration, timing, rate of change) in addition to flow magnitude. The components necessary are




determined on a case-by-case basis, depending on which values are most ecologically relevant.





Minimum flow statistics such as the 7Q10 design flow (the minimum 7-day average flow likely to occur in a 10-




year period) are recommended by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for the derivation of water




quality-based effluent limits in the National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System permitting program, but,




although they include magnitude, duration, and frequency components, they were not derived to support the




hydrologic requirements of aquatic ecosystems (Annear and others, 2004).  The main  purpose of these design




flows is to determine pollutant discharge values (or limits) rather than to support the flow requirements of




aquatic ecosystems (see U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1991).






5.2  Monitoring, Assessing, and Identifying Waters Impaired as a Result of Flow Alteration





Once WQS are adopted, states ensure they are met through monitoring to assess use  attainment status,




reporting on use attainment and identifying impaired waters, and implementing appropriate restoration




measures. Waters are classified and states report on their condition to support use attainment decisions




under Sections 303(d) and 305(b). States use their monitoring and assessment programs to identify and report




to the public those waters that have impairments from pollution, defined under the CWA as "the man-made




or man-induced alteration of the chemical, physical, biological, and radiological integrity of water" (Section




502(19)), including the effects of altered flow regimes or hydromodification (U.S. Environmental Protection




Agency, 1997, 2003, 2005). Attainment of designated uses is evaluated through monitoring and assessment of




indicators that reflect State WQS, including narrative or numeric criteria, or evaluating other data or




information (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1991). Accurately identifying the  impairment status of




these waters allows states to engage stakeholders on appropriate restoration strategies. The state of the




science for restoring waters impaired by hydrologic alteration has evolved considerably, including, for




instance, dam reregulation and improved  methods for surface- or groundwater withdrawals.




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In the Consolidated Assessment and Listing Methodology guidance (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,




2002), EPA recommends that the flow regime be a "core" water quality indicator for general designated uses




in the following categories: aquatic life and wildlife, recreation, and drinking water. As a core indicator, states




ideally would incorporate flow into their monitoring designs (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2002,




Chapters 8 and 10). In order to accurately assess flow conditions over time, states evaluate monitoring data




and information  relating to the flow regime.





States can record and evaluate flow information even when routine monitoring cannot occur as a result of




extreme (high or low) flow conditions. This evaluation could include desktop analyses sources such as USGS




StreamStats (a Web application that provides users with access to stream network tools for water-resources




planning purposes: http://water.usgs.gov/osw/streamstats/) or qualitative visual observations of streams.




Such data or information could be used for making attainment decisions. For instance, the absence of water




from a perennial stream could demonstrate that the aquatic life designated use  is not being attained, and a




state may conclude that the designated use is impaired. Texas provides an example: for each visit to nontidally




influenced freshwater streams or rivers, the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) monitoring




procedures require that a "flow-severity" field (with a value of no flow, low flow, normal flow, flood flow, high




flow, or dry) be recorded, even if it is not possible to quantitatively measure flow or conduct sampling during a




visit (see Box D).





States and tribes can use these data and information to classify the water-body segments into one of five of




the 303(d) and 305(b) Integrated Reporting (IR)  categories7 (U.S. Environmental  Protection Agency, 2005).
7 The listing categories are as follows: Category 1—All designated uses are supported, no use is threatened; Category 2—Available




data and (or) information indicate that some, but not all, of the designated uses are supported; Category 3—There is insufficient




available data and (or) information to make a use support determination; Category 4 (includes subcategories)—Available data and (or)




information indicate that at least one designated use is not being supported or is threatened, but a Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL)





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Water-body segments where an applicable WQS for a pollutant is not met and a total maximum daily load




(TMDL) is required are placed on the 303(d) list of impaired waters, also known as IR Category 5 (U.S.




Environmental Protection Agency, 2005).





Where there is no associated pollutant, EPA recommends reporting impairments due to hydrologic alteration




in Category 4c, which are those impairments due to pollution not requiring a TMDL (U.S. Environmental




Protection Agency, 2005). Examples of hydrologic alteration may include the following: a perennial water body




is dry, no longer has flow, has low flow, has stand-alone pools, or has extreme high flows; or there is altered




frequency, magnitude, duration, or rate of change of natural flows in a  water body; or a water body is




characterized by entrenchment, bank destabilization, or channelization. Where the specific pollutant causing




the impairment has not been identified (for example, for biological impairments), EPA recommends that states




list those waters in Category 5 (the 303[d] list, impaired by a pollutant and requiring a TMDL), unless they can




demonstrate that the impairment is solely attributable to a nonpollutant (for example, flow) (U.S.




Environmental Protection Agency, 2003; 2005). Additionally, EPA's guidance has noted that assessment




categories are not mutually exclusive, and waters may be placed in more than one category (for example,




categories 4c and  5) (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2005).





The integrated reporting format provides transparency in reporting the status of all assessed waters and,




therefore, is one way to acknowledge the important role of flow in contributing to water-body impairments.




An example of a reporting option that helps clearly delineate and address waters impaired as a result of




streamflow alteration is described in Box E, which illustrates the use of Category 4F in Vermont.
is not needed; Category 5— Available data and (or) information indicate that at least one designated use is not being supported or is




threatened, and a TMDL is needed. For more information on Integrated Reporting categories, see




http://water.epa.gov/lawsregs/lawsguidance/cwa/tmdl/upload/2006irg-report.pdf.





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Box D. Procedures for Capturing Flow Information in the State of Texas





The publication "Surface water quality monitoring procedures, Volume 1: Physical and chemical monitoring




methods" (Texas Commission on Environmental Quality [TCEQ], 2012) describes how Texas monitors all flow




conditions and captures flow information in its State database. Parameter codes for data uploads to the U.S.




Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Storage and Retrieval Data Warehouse (STORET), a repository for




water monitoring data, are provided for each type of data collected. In addition to describing methods for




capturing quantitative flow information, the document describes how to capture qualitative flow information




with the "flow-severity" field:





•  "Record a flow-severity value for each visit to freshwater streams or rivers (nontidally influenced) and




   report the value to the TCEQ central office. Do not report flow severity for reservoirs, lakes, bays, or tidal




   streams. It should be recorded even if it was not possible to measure flow on a specific sampling visit. See




   the Surface water quality monitoring data management reference guide for detailed information on data




   reporting." (Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, 2013)





•  "No numerical guidelines are associated with flow severity, an observational measurement that is highly




   dependent on the water body and the knowledge of monitoring personnel. It is  a simple but useful piece




   of information when assessing water quality data. For example, a bacteria value of 10,000 with a flow




   severity of 1 would represent something entirely different than the same value with a flow severity of 5."





Table  3.2 of Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (2012) provides photographs of each "flow-severity"




category  and the following descriptions, which can be found at




https://www.tceq.texas.gov/assets/public/comm exec/pubs/rg/rg415/rg-415  chapter3.pdf (accessed




February 4, 2016):
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•  "No Flow. When a flow severity of 1 is recorded for a sampling visit, record a flow value of 0 ft3/s (using




   parameter code 00061) for that sampling visit. A flow severity of 1 describes situations where the stream




   has water visible in isolated pools. There should be no obvious shallow subsurface flow in sand or gravel




   beds between isolated pools. —No flow not only applies to streams with pools, but also to long reaches of




   streams that have water from bank to bank but no detectable flow."






•  "Low Flow. When streamflow is considered low, record a flow-severity value of 2 for the visit, along with




   the corresponding flow measurement (parameter code 00061).  In streams too shallow for a flow




   measurement where water movement is detected, record a value of < 0.10 ft3/s. In general, at low flow




   the stream would be characterized by flows that don't fill the normal stream channel. Water would not




   reach the base of both banks. Portions of the stream channel might be dry. Flow might be confined to one




   side of the stream channel."





•  "Normal Flow. When streamflow is considered normal, record a flow severity value of 3 for the visit, along




   with the corresponding flow measurement (parameter code 00061). What is normal is highly dependent




   on the stream. Normality is characterized by flow that stays within the confines of the normal stream




   channel. Water generally reaches the base of each bank."





•  "Flood Flow. Flow-severity values for high and flood flows have long been established by the EPA and are




   not sequential. Flood flow is reported as a flow severity of 4. Flood flows are those that leave the confines




   of the normal stream channel and move out onto the floodplain (either side of the stream)."






•  "High Flow. High flows are reported as a flow severity of 5. High flow would be characterized by flows that




   leave the normal stream channel but stay within the stream banks."
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"Dry. When the stream is dry, record a flow-severity value of 6 for the sampling visit. In this case the flow




(parameter code 00061)  is not reported, indicating that the stream is completely dry with no visible




pools."
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Box E. Vermont Addresses Hydrologically Altered Waters





Vermont first adopted narrative criteria into its water quality standards (WQS) for Clean Water Act purposes




for flow or hydrologic condition in 1973 (for full text, see http://www2.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2014-




12/documents/vtwqs.pdf [accessed February 4, 2016] or Vt. Code R. 12 004 052,




http://www.vtwaterquality.org/wrprules/wsmd wqs.pdf [accessed February 4, 2016]). Although hydrologic




alteration is listed under integrated reporting guidance as Category 4c (impairments due to pollution not




requiring a Total Maximum Daily Load), Vermont does address flow-related exceedance of the WQS through




the Vermont Priority Waters List. This list includes waters assessed as "altered" using the state's assessment




methodology (Vermont Department of Environmental Conservation, 2014:




http://www.vtwaterquality.org/mapp/docs/mp assessmethod.pdf [accessed  February 4, 2016]). Part F of the




Priority Waters List is water bodies that do not support one or more designated uses as a result of alteration




by flow regulation (primarily from hydroelectric facilities, other dam operations, or industrial, municipal, or




snowmaking water withdrawals). This list includes a description of the problem, current status or control




activity, and the projected year the water-body segment will come into compliance with WQS. Creating a new




category for hydrologic alteration helps separate it from other causes of pollution effects that would be




reported in Category 4.






5.3  Development of Total Maximum Daily Loads





When waters are placed into Category 5, a TMDL must be developed to address the pollutant(s) causing the




impairment.  A TMDL is a calculation of the maximum amount of a pollutant that a water body can receive and




still meet WQS, and an allocation of that load among the various sources of those pollutants. Quantity of flow




and variation in flow regimes are important factors in transporting pollutants (for example, sediment,




pathogens, and metals) for which there may be WQS, and therefore flow is considered when calculating




TMDLs. In addition, EPA regulations require that seasonal variations, critical conditions, and a margin of safety,




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which are likely to be influenced by flow regimes, also be taken into account when developing a TMDL (40 CFR




§130.7(c)(l)). Flow conditions are used to help establish the cause-and-effect relation between the numeric




TMDL target and the identified pollutant sources using a water quality model. Understanding flow regimes




and how they transport the pollutant of concern can help identify actions needed to meet WQS. Flow patterns




play a major role when considering loading capacities in TMDL development and, therefore, states are




encouraged to consider the most up-to-date flow information available when developing TMDLs. Similarly,




when hydrologic alteration occurs after the  completion of a TMDL (for example, the construction of a new




water intake that alters the water quantity on which the TMDL was based), states ideally would consider re-




evaluating the TMDL and, if necessary, revise it. A common source of streamflow data is the USGS National




Water Information System. Several EPA TMDL technical documents discuss the role of flow in the context of




methods and models to develop loadings and  load and waste-load allocations. These include the EPA




document on developing TMDLs based on the load-duration curve approach (U.S. Environmental Protection




Agency, 2007) and the EPA protocol for developing sediment TMDLs (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,




1999).





5.4  Consideration of Flow Alteration in Issuing 401 Certifications





An additional CWA program that can address protection of aquatic life from flow alteration is the CWA Section




401 water quality certification process. This  certification process gives states the authority to grant, condition,




or deny a Federal permit or license (see CWA Section 401(a)(l)). Before issuing a CWA Section 401




certification, the state would ensure that any discharge to United States waters from the activity to be




permitted or licensed will be consistent with, among other things, the state's WQS and any other appropriate




requirement of State law including provisions  relating to hydrologic conditions. See S. D. Warren Co. v. Maine




Board of Environmental Protection, 547 U.S. 370 (2006). The state can include flow as a condition for a Federal




401 permit or license, even if flow criteria are  not explicitly included in the state's WQS. See Public Utility






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District No. 1 of Jefferson City v. Washington Department of Ecology, 511 U.S. 700, 719-721 (1994), described




in Box F. A State narrative criterion describing desired hydrologic conditions would provide a state with a basis




to identify conditions for inclusion in a Federal permit or license that might have beneficial effects on aquatic




life designated uses that would otherwise be harmed by altered hydrologic conditions (see two examples in




Box F).





Identification of flow impairments can aid in the 401 certification process. For example, a 4C identification or




other related category developed by a state (for example, the 4F category described in Box E) might help the




state recognize the potential for flow-related impairments caused by proposed projects. Such adverse effects




can be addressed through CWA 401 certification for operating conditions for a Section 404 permit (see Section




5.5), or as part of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission permitting process for hydroelectric power




generation, for example.






Box F. 401 Certifications, Sufficient Flow, and Water Quality Standards





South Carolina Board of Health and  Environmental Control Denied Certification




In 2009, South Carolina denied a 401 certification of a hydroelectric  project license renewal (involving 11




dams), stating, "[t]he Board finds  that the WQ Certification does not provide sufficient flow to protect




classified uses, the endangered shortnose sturgeon and adequate downstream flow....to provide reasonable




assurance....that WQS will be met."  As a result of that action, negotiations were held that resulted in an




agreement in 2014 and granting of the 401 certification. The agreement conditions committed the energy




company to operating its dams to improve conditions for the sturgeon, protect flow conditions during




spawning periods, and provide periodic flood-plain  inundation mimicking ecologically important natural floods




and recessions.





Public Utility District No. 1 of Jefferson County v. Washington Department of Ecology , 511 U.S. 700, 719-721




(1994), addressed the question of whether flow may be linked to WQS and whether a state may include

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specific flow requirements in a Clean Water Act Section 401 certification. The challenge was related to the




State of Washington's inclusion of minimum-flow requirements in a 401 certification for a Federal Energy




Regulatory Commission relicensing of a hydropower plant. The Court held that the State of Washington was




authorized to require the plant to maintain certain streamflows as a  condition of a Section 401 certification. In




this case, the State of Washington did not have explicit narrative or numeric criteria related to flow, but the




certification was conditioned to address flow in order to protect the  designated use and meet antidegradation




requirements.






5.5  Consideration of Flow Alteration in Issuing 404 Permits





Reviews conducted pursuant to CWA Section 404 also take into account potential effects on aquatic life uses




caused by hydrologic alteration associated with the discharge of dredged or fill material (for example, dams or




other impoundments). CWA Section 404 regulates8 discharge of dredged  or fill material into waters of the




United States, and some proposed projects may result in loss of the conditions necessary for survival of




aquatic life, including, for example, lotic species (species that depend on flowing water for survival). As a




result, such projects could result in the  inability to meet WQS, including protecting for the designated use,




narrative and numeric criteria (that is, dissolved oxygen, temperature, or biological narratives), and




antidegradation. Potential effects on the ability of a water body to meet WQS are a required consideration




when evaluating whether to issue a Section 404 permit [see 40 CFR 230.10(b)]. The Section 404 review entails




evaluating efforts to avoid the adverse effects on aquatic resources,  minimizing effects if they cannot be




avoided, and mitigating any unavoidable adverse effects that remain. For example, avoidance could include




water conservation and efficiency programs and (or) use of an existing impoundment in lieu of creating a new
8 The responsibility for administering and enforcing CWA Section 404 is shared by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the U.S.




Environmental Protection Agency. For more information on these responsibilities, see http://www.epa.gov/cwa-404/laws-regulations-




executive-orders and http://www.epa.gov/cwa-404/policy-and-guidance





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water-supply reservoir; minimizing could include reducing the scope of effects associated with a proposed




impoundment; and compensatory mitigation to offset the effects of a project could include hydrologic




restoration of waters through dam removal.





Examples of projects involving discharge of dredged or fill material that affect hydrology include the




construction of new water withdrawal or storage systems (for example, reservoirs); expansion of existing




withdrawal or storage systems; diversions and construction of projects such as drinking-water or flood-control




reservoirs, impoundments for energy generation, and fishing reservoirs or amenity ponds (an impoundment




developed for recreation and (or) aesthetic purposes). Impoundments alter streamflows, and operation of




dams to manage releases largely determines how closely downstream flows resemble the natural hydrograph.





State review of such proposed activities ideally would consider whether the proposed project would adversely




affect the designated use (aquatic life) or result in nonattainment of narrative or numeric WQS. Activities




proposed for Section 404 permits (issued by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers) are reviewed by resource




agencies (Federal and State) and are subject to Section 401 certification. Permits issued by a state that has




assumed the Section 404 program (as of 2015, only Michigan and New Jersey have approved Section 404




programs), or issued by a state or tribe implementing a programmatic general permit issued by the U.S. Army




Corps of Engineers, must also consider the potential effects of a  project on attainment of WQS, including




antidegradation requirements. A State program must be at least as stringent as the CWA requirements.





5.6  Consideration of Flow Alteration in Issuing National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (402)




     Permits





The National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) is another CWA program that can play a role in




protecting aquatic life from the effects of hydrologic alteration. NPDES permits are generally required for




point-source discharges of pollutants.
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Many NPDES permits depend on streamflow data for pollutant discharge limit calculations. Permits issued




under CWA Section 402 use critical low-flow values such as the 7Q10 (7-day, 10-year annual low-flow statistic)




or regulated low flows to calculate a permittee's discharge limits so that permitted values will be protective of




aquatic life under the most critical conditions. Many rivers and streams across the United States have




experienced trends in low flows since the 1940's-with increases generally in the Northeast and Midwest, and




decreases (streams carrying less water) in the Southeast and the Pacific Northwest (Figure 7). Permit writers




use the most up-to-date critical low-flow information for the receiving water and, where historical flow data




are no longer representative, use current low-flow data to calculate effluent permit limits to protect for the




new critical low flow (see the EPA Water Quality Standards Handbook [U.S.  Environmental Protection Agency,




1994, Chapter 5.2]).





As states issue  permits for new surface-water intakes or other surface- or groundwater withdrawals that will




alter the existing low flow of a stream, NPDES permits may need to be re-evaluated to ensure that the new




low flow is incorporated into effluent limit calculations and updated as needed. Safeguarding  protective




instream flows from anthropogenic alteration will help maintain streamflow for existing NPDES permits,




reducing the need to modify them to meet new low-flow conditions. The protection of flow levels would




prevent additional treatment requirements for those permittees.





Among NPDES  permits are those generally  required for stormwater discharges from three sources: Municipal




Separate Storm Sewer Systems (MS4) identified in EPA regulations, construction activities that disturb one or




more acres, and industrial activities. MS4 regulations require that the permitted MS4, including storm-sewer




systems serving populations of 100,000 or more and systems serving populations located within the census-




defined urbanized area, develop a post-construction program to address stormwater runoff from new




development and redevelopment projects to reduce the discharge of pollutants and prevent or minimize
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effects on water quality. The post-construction program allows states to help protect aquatic life in receiving




waters from flow alteration as development occurs.





A substantial portion of the Nation's impervious cover was created since the 1950's, and the conversion of




land types, including forest, meadow, prairie, and agriculture, to impervious cover is expected to continue. An




increase in impervious cover increases runoff and affects NPDES permitting. According to the U.S. Department




of Agriculture (USDA) National Resources Inventory, developed land area increased almost 600 percent, from




18.6 to 111 million acres (7.5 to 44.9 million hectares), in the contiguous United States from 1954 to 2007




(U.S. Department of Agriculture, 1997; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2013c). From 1982 to 2007,




more than 40 million acres of land —more than one-third of all land that has ever been developed in the




contiguous United States—was newly developed (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2009). Approximately 25




percent of the land that has been developed in the United States is considered to  be impervious (Elvidge and




others, 2004;  U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2009). Impervious surface area in the United States is projected




to increase 14.2 percent from 2010 to 2040 (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2009, 2010a).





An increase in impervious surface cover will increase the amount of runoff. Substantial effects of runoff




generally take one of two  forms. The first is caused by an increase in the type and  quantity of pollutants in




stormwater runoff. These  pollutants can become suspended in runoff and are carried to receiving waters, such




as lakes, ponds, and  streams, and can impair the aquatic life uses of these waters (see Section 4.4.3 for more




information). The second kind of runoff effect occurs by increasing the quantity of water delivered to the




water body as a result of storms. Increased impervious surface area (for example,  parking lots, driveways, and




rooftops) interrupts the natural process of gradual percolation of water through vegetation and soil, and the




water that would percolate under natural conditions may instead be discharged through an MS4. The effects




of this alteration include streambank scouring and downstream flooding, which can affect aquatic life and




damage property (see Section 4.3.5 for more information).





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EPA requires that municipalities with permitted MS4s develop an implementation strategy that includes a




combination of structural and (or) nonstructural best management practices (BMPs) to control post-




construction discharges. EPA recommends that the BMPs chosen attempt to maintain predevelopment runoff




conditions (40 CFR 122.34(b)(5) http://www.epa.gov/npdes/npdes-stormwater-program ). Some states and




the EPA have included measurable post-construction requirements in their MS4 permits, such as requirements




for the treatment or retention of a specified volume of runoff to be managed on site. These requirements




clearly specify the expectations for controlling discharges from new development and redevelopment in order




to protect the aquatic life uses in the receiving water. An example of a post-construction volume retention




requirement is West Virginia's requirement to keep and maintain on site the first 1 inch (2.54 centimeters) of




rainfall from a 24-hour rain event (see Box G). This proactive approach using prior planning and design for the




minimization of contaminant concentrations and erosive flows is a cost-effective approach to stormwater




management.
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Box G. Stormwater and West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) Municipal Separate




Storm Sewer Systems (MS4) Permit Language





The West Virginia DEP issued a small MS4 permit including the language below for new and redevelopment




projects to reduce effects from stormwater runoff at permitted sites:





"Performance Standards. The permittee must implement and enforce via ordinance and/or other enforceable




mechanism(s) the following requirements for new and redevelopment: [....]"





"Site design standards for all new and  redevelopment that require, in combination or alone, management




measures that keep and manage on site the first one inch of rainfall from a 24-hour storm preceded by 48




hours of no measurable precipitation.  Runoff volume reduction is achieved by canopy interception, soil




amendments, evaporation, rainfall harvesting, engineered infiltration, extended filtration, and/or




evapotranspiration and any combination of the aforementioned practices. This first  one inch of rainfall must




be 100% managed with no discharge to surface waters."





For a full compendium of this and other examples, see U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (2014c).





For additional examples of stormwater-related  permits and their analysis, see U.S. Environmental Protection




Agency (2012b).






5.7  Further considerations





The discussion above is not meant to be a comprehensive assessment of all Federal  CWA programs that may




address flow and the protection of aquatic life uses. In addition to the approaches mentioned above, other




non-CWA mechanisms exist that may protect aquatic ecosystems from alteration of flow. Although many of




these programs may provide a method to specifically address these altered-flow effects, others may lack




specified frameworks and (or) established methods to quantify targets to address the  impacts of flow on




aquatic life uses, allowing room for supplemental considerations or the application of  methods considered the




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"best available science." Section 6 below presents a framework for quantifying flow targets to protect aquatic




life.
                                                                                                   64

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6   Framework for Quantifying Flow Targets to Protect Aquatic Life

The adoption of narrative flow criteria in WQS is a mechanism to address the effect of flow alteration on
aquatic life. Narrative criteria are qualitative statements that describe the desired water quality condition
needed to protect a specified designated use (for example, aquatic life uses). The adoption of explicit narrative
flow criteria allows for a clear link between the natural flow regime and the protection of designated uses.
Moreover, the adoption of narrative flow criteria ensures that flow conditions are considered under various
other CWA programs (for example, CWA Section 401 certifications, monitoring and assessment, and
permitting under CWA Sections 402 and 404).

The effectiveness of narrative flow criteria  depends, in part, on the establishment of scientifically defensible
methods to quantitatively translate and implement the narrative. Quantitative translation of narrative flow
criteria requires an understanding of the principles of the natural flow regime,  hydrologic alteration, and
ecological responses to altered flows. (The term "quantitative translation" encompasses the qualitative
approaches described further in this section.)

A fundamental goal of any effort to translate narrative flow criteria is to establish scientifically sound,
quantitative flow targets that are readily implemented in State water quality management programs. This
section describes a framework (illustrated  in Figure 10) for developing quantitative flow targets for protection
of aquatic life uses that incorporates elements of the EPA Guidelines for Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) (U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency, 1998), recent environmental flow literature (Arthington, 2012; Kendy and
others, 2012; Poff and others, 2010), and procedures outlined in EPA guidance documents (U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency 2000a, 2000b, 2001, 2008, 2010b). The framework is intended to be flexible; decisions
regarding whether and how each step is applied depend on project-specific goals and resources.

The framework presented in this section is organized into eight discrete steps that integrate science and policy
(Figure 10). Steps 1 through 4 correspond to the "problem formulation phase"  of the EPA ERA framework;
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Steps 5 through 7 represent the "analysis phase"; and Step 8 incorporates concepts from the "risk




characterization" phase as an "effects characterization". Throughout the process, opportunities for public and




stakeholder involvement should be considered. Certain steps within this framework are particularly well




suited for public participation (see discussion of Steps 1 and 8). The benefits of public involvement are




twofold. First, public input can help strengthen the study design by incorporating suggested methods or




addressing deficiencies identified  in proposed approaches. Second, public involvement can foster a sense of




support and ownership in the resulting flow targets, leading to streamlined implementation (Annear and




others, 2004; Locke and others, 2008).
                                                                                                  66

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                        Phase
Step
Problem formulation


..., Link narrative criteria to biological goals
and assessment endpoints
4
(2) Define scope of action
i
(3) Conduct literature review
I
(4) Develop conceptual models


Analysis
^




(5) Data inventory
i
(6) Identify measures of
exposure and effect
i
.... Develop qualtative and (or)
quantitative flow-ecology models


Risk characterization
i




Estimate risk and identify
acceptable risk levels


Figure 10. Flow diagram illustrating a framework for quantifying flow targets to protect aquatic life.
(Adapted from EPA Guidelines for Ecological Risk Assessment;
http://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2014-ll/documents/eco_risk_assessmentl998.pdf)
                                                                                               67

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6.1  Link Narrative Criteria to Biological Goals and Assessment Endpoints





As described in Section 4, narrative flow criteria (see Table 1) are generally composed of (1) a description of




the resource to be protected and the protection goal, and (2) statements describing the flow condition needed




to be maintained to achieve the protection goal.





The first step in the framework for quantifying flow targets is to link narrative flow criteria to biological goals




and assessment endpoints for the purpose  of directing subsequent steps. A biological goal is a specific type of




management goal that focuses on the biological characteristics of an aquatic system, such as fish or




macroinvertebrate populations. Biological goals clearly state the desired condition of biological attributes




relevant to flow target development (for example, "restore and maintain cold-water fisheries"). In most cases,




a narrative flow criterion will already provide or suggest biological goals for a  particular community or species




that are tied to aquatic life designated uses. For narrative criteria worded in general terms, biological goals are




derived through interpretation of narrative statements or are based on existing biological criteria to  protect




aquatic life designated uses. Examples of linking narrative flow criteria to biological goals are provided in




Section 6.9.





Assessment endpoints are "explicit expressions of the actual environmental value that is to be protected"




(U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1998). Whereas biological goals describe the desired condition of




aquatic biota and communities, assessment endpoints specify which biological attributes are used to evaluate




whether goals are met. If, for example, a biological goal was to "maintain a cold-water fishery," assessment




endpoints could include spawning success rate and adult abundance for one or more cold-water fish species.




Assessment endpoints use "neutral phrasing" in that they do not call for any desired  level of achievement. The




EPA document "Guidelines for Ecological Risk Assessment" (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1998)




outlines three  main criteria for selecting assessment endpoints: (1) ecological relevance; (2) susceptibility to




known or potential stressors; and (3) relevance to management goals. Selection of assessment endpoints can





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take into consideration available methods for measuring biological conditions, although endpoints without




standard measurement protocols may be selected. Additional discussion of biological measures for




quantitative analysis is provided in Section 6.6, and example endpoints are listed in Table 2.





Biological goals and assessment endpoints defined during this step may be shared  with the public for




comment. Soliciting feedback at this step can improve public awareness of a state's intent to quantitatively




translate narrative flow criteria and promote transparency at the onset of the process, both of which are




crucial to the successful development and implementation of flow targets.





6.2   Identify Target Streams





Flow targets are quantified for a single stream, all streams within a geographic area (for example, a catchment




or a state), or a subset of streams that satisfy a set of selection criteria. The second step in the framework for




quantifying flow targets is to clearly define the spatial extent of the project and the target stream population.





When multiple streams over a large area are the subject of study, it is advantageous to classify target streams




according to their natural flow, geomorphic properties, temperature  regimes, and  other attributes. The




purpose of stream classification is to identify groups of streams with similar characteristics so that data for




each group are aggregated and extrapolated (Archfield and others, 2013; Arthington and others, 2006; Olden




and others, 2011; Poff and others, 2010; Wagener and others, 2007). It is a key step described in EPA's




"Biological assessment program review" (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2013a), the EPA technical




guidance for developing numeric nutrient criteria for streams (U.S. Environmental  Protection  Agency, 2000a)




and the Ecological Limits of Hydrologic Alteration (ELOHA) framework for developing regional flow standards




outlined in Poff and others (2010). Stream classification based on flow, geomorphology, or other attributes




should not be confused with the definition of stream condition classes that may serve as the basis of tiered




biological thresholds or effects  levels [see Section 6.8]. Additionally, although stream classification offers
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several benefits (Box H), it is not a requirement for successful development of quantitative flow targets (Kendy




and others, 2012).






Box H. Fundamentals of Stream Classification





Stream classification is the grouping of multiple streams into a smaller number of classes on the basis of




shared hydrologic, physical, chemical, and (or) biological attributes. Stream classification is a valuable tool for




quantifying flow targets because (1) data from multiple streams are pooled for analysis, and (2) conclusions




drawn for a given class are reasonably applied to all streams in that class. A general goal of stream




classification is to systematically arrange streams of the study area into groups that are unique in key




attributes for environmental flow research and management (for example, catchment size and temperature




regime, as in example Scenario A described in Section 6.9). The process requires compiling observed and




modeled  data for the streams of interest, identifying metrics to serve as the basis of classification, and




determining appropriate breakpoints for these metrics. Statistical methods such as correlation analysis,




principal  component analysis, regression, and cluster analysis are used to select metrics for classification and




determine stream groupings. Important considerations include the types of data and attributes such as the




number of classes, analytical methods, approaches to data gaps and uncertainty, and methods for evaluating




results. As an example, a simple classification scheme may reflect the dependence of flow characteristics on




catchment size and would require a database of stream drainage areas and the definition of drainage-area




breakpoints for stream-size classes (for example—small, less than 50 square miles [mi2]; medium, 50-100 mi2;




large, greater than 100 mi2). A comprehensive review of stream classification to support environmental flow




management is provided in Olden and others (2011) and Melles and others (2012). Example approaches are




found in Seelbach and others (2006), Kennard and others (2010b), Kennen and others (2007), Reidy Liermann




and others (2012), Melles and others (2012), and Archfield and others (2013).
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6.3  Conduct Literature Review





A review of existing literature provides a foundation for understanding how the natural flow regime supports




aquatic life and the biological effects of flow alteration in target streams. The literature review can include any




published  or unpublished journal articles, reports, presentations, and other documents that are relevant to




the target streams. The literature review ideally should identify the most important aspects of flow regimes




that are vital to support aquatic life and include both direct and indirect  connections between flow variables




and ecological response (Richter and others, 2006). Studies that characterize natural flow and biological




conditions are valuable even if they do not specifically address flow alteration (Mims and Olden, 2012;




McMullen and Lytle, 2012; Rolls and others,  2012). For example, studies of the historical and current biological




condition of target streams, the physical and chemical conditions that support aquatic life, and the life-history




strategies  of aquatic species are all relevant for subsequent analysis steps. Literature reviews are aided by




existing databases of flow-ecology literature for the region of interest (for example, McManamay and others,




2013).  Global-scale literature reviews, such as Bunn and Arthington (2002) or Poff and Zimmerman (2010),




may also help to  identify candidate sources of flow alteration, and the relevance of these potential effects are




evaluated  on the basis of local information.





The literature review can help to identify data gaps that could be filled through subsequent studies. It can




provide a set of references for characterizing the types and sources of flow alteration in target streams. Past




studies may provide detailed descriptions of observed flow modifications below dams and diversions or in




urbanized  catchments. Studies of observed and projected climate change may be reviewed, particularly those




conducted at the state or regional scale. Information on climate-mediated changes in flow will be most




valuable for subsequent steps; however, historical and projected trends  in climate variables (precipitation,




temperature, etc.) may be  used to model flow  regime changes for a state.
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6.4  Develop Conceptual Models





The literature review is used to guide the development of one or more conceptual models that depict




hypothesized relations between biological conditions and flow alteration in target streams. A conceptual




model consists of a diagram and accompanying narrative describing hypothesized cause-and-effect relations.




Poff and others (2010) recommend that these hypotheses focus on process-based relations between a




particular flow-regime component and ecological change. The conceptual models, therefore, ideally depict




how a specific change in a flow-regime component is believed to drive one or more biological responses. The




pathways leading to indirect biological responses to flow alteration (that is, those mediated by habitat or




water quality change) are clearly depicted. Conceptual models developed as part of this process are therefore




much more detailed than the general model presented in Section 4 (Figure 2).





The EPA Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System (CADDIS) Web site includes a conceptual




diagram of potential biological responses to several types of flow alteration (Figure 11) that may serve as a




useful starting point for conceptual model development; other existing conceptual diagrams can be




considered. Although this example does not include climate change as a source of flow alteration, climate




effects on flow and biota can be conceptualized to more accurately reflect climate as a dynamic component of




the ecosystem. Relations among climate, flow, and aquatic life might already be apparent from past studies,




particularly if a state has  undertaken a climate-change vulnerability assessment. (See Appendix C for




additional discussion and examples of climate-change vulnerability and assessments.) Where information on




climate change effects does not already exist, available climate, hydrologic, and biological literature may be




synthesized to infer potential types of flow alteration and potential biological responses.





The conceptual models resulting from this step of the framework are used to guide subsequent analysis of




flow targets, including the selection of biological and flow variables and analysis methods. In general,




conceptual models created for flow target development contain a  similar structure, but focus on stressors and





                                                                                                 72

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responses specific to the streams of study. Biological responses to flow-mediated changes in water chemistry

and temperature can be included which are not explicitly depicted in Figure 11. A detailed conceptual model

may also identify alternative pathways (that is, other than flow alteration) to a given biological response. This

approach also facilitates identification of potential confounding variables for consideration in flow-ecology

modeling. The topic of confounding variables is discussed further in Section 6.6.



Wnterstied
devegetaticn
1

1 4 i
Increased discrarca Increased overterd Increased
into surface waters transport efficiency surface ninctf
;


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I 	 ' 	 1
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grtwindwater inputs

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surface waler inputs
1111










, ^ Channel alteration

I 1
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* 4- •'



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"-v

Change in
structural habitat

Change in
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                                                                              EXPLANATION
                                                                             HUIBBA activity
                                                                             Additional step HI cwsal fuftwif
                                                                             Proximate stressor
                                                                             Response
Figure 11. Example conceptual diagram illustrating the ecological effects of human-induced flow alteration
from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System
(CADDIS). (Modified from CADDIS Volume 2: Sources, Stressors and Responses,
http://www3.epa.gov/caddis/ssr_flow4s.html).
                                                                                                   73

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6.5   Perform Data Inventory





Existing streamflow and ecological data from target streams ideally are compiled, inventoried, and reviewed




for use in quantifying flow targets. A common source of streamflow data is the USGS National Water




Information System database (http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis), in which catchment attributes for many




streams monitored by the USGS have been compiled in geographic information system (CIS) datasets (Falcone




and others, 2010; Falcone, 2011). Existing mechanistic or statistical models of streamflow can provide




continuous flow estimates, estimates of historical summary statistics, or estimates of flow under projected




future climate scenarios (for example, Archfield and others, 2010; Holtschlag, 2009; Stuckey and others, 2012).





Potential sources of biological data include the EPA Wadeable Streams Assessment program




(http://water.epa.gov/tvpe/rsl/monitoring/streamsurvey/web data.cfm), the USGS BioData retrieval system




(https://aquatic.biodata.usgs.gov/landing.action), and databases maintained by the U.S. Forest Service, the




Bureau of Land Management, the National Fish Habitat Partnership9, or state agencies. Sampling methods,




including the  attributes measured, timing, equipment used, habitat type sampled, and taxonomic




classification, are reviewed for each biological dataset. These and other sampling protocols are important for




evaluating whether and how data from  multiple sources are synthesized. A thorough discussion of potential




data compatibility issues is provided in Cao and Hawkins (2011) and Maas-Hebner and others (2015).





The literature and data review will likely reveal information gaps  that hinder the quantification of flow targets.




Common issues include a  lack of biological data for streams with  long-term flow data or a lack of reference




biological  or flow data with which to evaluate alteration. Depending on the scope of the effort, additional




monitoring or modeling may be required to fill such gaps.
9 The National Fish Habitat Partnership has created data for every stream reach and catchment in the United States, available at




http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03632415.2011.607075tf.VPc9VGiF-4l. The fish data are available at




http://ecosystems.usRS.Rov/fishhabitat/data viewer.jsp.





                                                                                                   74

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6.6  Identify Flow and Biological Indicators





Streamflow and biological indicators are specific measures that are used to analyze the relations between flow




alteration and biological response (termed "flow-ecology" relations). Flow indicators correspond to "measures




of exposure"  in the EPA ERA framework, whereas biological indicators correspond to "measures of effect."




Biological indicators reflect narrative flow criteria and can include various measures of the diversity,




abundance, or specific life-history traits offish, macroinvertebrates, and aquatic vegetation. Many flow




indicators have been proposed to characterize the flow regime; these indicators describe the magnitude,




timing, frequency,  duration, and rate of change of various flow conditions. They are calculated from long-term




daily flow datasets, and software tools are available to automate this process (for example, Henriksen and




others, 2006; The Nature Conservancy, 2009; and the USGS EflowStats "R" package which is available at




https://github.com/USGS-R/EflowStats). Example flow and biological indicators that have been used in past




studies of flow-ecology relations are listed in Table 2. These examples are only a small subset of the full




universe of indicators that could be considered for a target-setting effort.





The biological indicators selected for analysis ideally are consistent with narrative flow criteria and the




biological goals and assessment endpoints developed under Step 1 of this framework. Ideally, the  biological




indicators selected directly reflect the biological attributes of concern described by assessment endpoints (for




example, fish diversity). In cases where assessment endpoints cannot be directly measured  or have limited




observational data for flow-ecology modeling, surrogate biological indicators are linked to assessment




endpoints through additional analysis. For example, if an assessment endpoint involves a rare fish  species with




few monitoring records, a surrogate biological indicator is selected  by identifying a data-rich species with




similar life-history traits. (See Merritt and  others [2010] or Mims and Olden [2012, 2013] for examples of




methods for grouping biota by life-history strategies.)
                                                                                                   75

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The flow and biological indicators selected for analysis should be consistent with the conceptual models




developed as part of Step 4 of this framework. Biological indicators (that is, measures of effect) may include




measurements along the scales of ecological organization, but they should be quantitatively related to




survival, reproduction, or growth, as indicated  in the general conceptual model presented in Figure 2. In most




cases, the ability to analyze each and every hypothesized relation will be prohibited by data limitations and




the project schedule and resources. Moreover, multiple flow indicators may be relevant to a particular




relation. For example, analysis of a hypothesized relation between peak flow magnitude and fish-species




diversity could use one of several peak-flow indicators (peak daily flow, peak 7-day flow, etc.). It may therefore




be beneficial to establish a set of guidelines for flow indicator selection. Guidelines proposed in Apse and




others (2008) include the use of flow indicators that are readily calculated, replicated, and communicated.




Also recommended  by Apse and others (2008) is the use of nonredundant flow indicators (that is, those  that




are not strongly correlated with one another). Olden and Poff (2003) and Gao and others (2009) describe the




use of principal component analysis to identify nonredundant indicators and Archfield and others (2013) used




a subset of fundamental daily streamflow statistics to capture the stochastic properties of the streamflow




signal while minimizing the potential for redundancy. Other studies have addressed redundancy by




investigating the correlation between pairs of potential flow indicators and discarding one indicator from




highly correlated pairs (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and others, 2013). The uncertainty associated with




potential flow indicators and attempt to select indicators with  low measurement uncertainty can be




considered (Kennard and others, 2010a). Finally, identification of flow indicators that are most sensitive  to




sources of flow alteration can be attempted. For example, if climate change is considered to be an important




source of flow alteration, available climate-vulnerability information to identify flow indicators that are




sensitive to observed and projected climate trends and that are amenable to management changes can  be




evaluated (See Appendix C for additional  discussion of climate-change vulnerability).







                                                                                                  76

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Table 2. Example flow and biological indicators used to evaluate relations between streamflow characteristics and aquatic assemblage response.
  component
  Magnitude
                  Flow indicators (measures of exposure)
Mean June-July flow;




Mean August flow
                                              Biological
                                             component
Fish
                   Biological
                   indicators (measures of effect)
Fish density;




Fish abundance
                                       Reference
Peterson and Kwak (1999);




Zorn and others (2008)
  Magnitude
Spring maximum flow;




Summer median flow
Fish
Fish abundance;




Fish-assemblage composition
Freeman and others (2001)
  Magnitude
Magnitude of 10-year low-flow event
Fish
Fish Index of Biotic Integrity;




Fish-species richness
                                                                                                                         Freeman and Marcinek (2006)
  Magnitude
Mean annual flow;




Base-flow index
Macroinvertebrates
Macroinvertebrate abundance;




Macroinvertebrate assemblage;




composition
                                                                                                                         Kennen and others (2014)




                                                                                                                         Castella and others (1995)
  Magnitude
Maximum flow;




Ratio of maximum to minimum flow
Macroinvertebrates
Macroinvertebrate Index of Biotic




   Integrity;




Macroinvertebrate species richness
                                                                                                                         Morley and Karr (2002)
  Magnitude
Magnitude of 1-, 2-, 5-, 10-, and 20-year flood




events
Macroinvertebrates
Macroinvertebrate O/E (ratio between




   the observed and expected) scores;




Macroinvertebrate-assemblage




composition
                                                                                                                         Nichols and others (2006)
                                                                                                                                                     77

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                                                              Biological
                                                                  Biological
                                                           Reference
component
Magnitude
Summer diversion magnitude
                                              component
Macroinvertebrates
                    indicators (measures of effect)
Macroinvertebrate abundance
Wills and others (2006)
Timing
Date of annual maximum flow;




Date of annual minimum flow
Fish
Fish abundance;




Fish-assemblage composition
                                                                                                                         Koel and Sparks (2002)
Frequency
Number of days above mean annual flow;




Number of events above 75% exceedance flow




value
Macroinvertebrates
Macroinvertebrate Index of Biotic




Integrity




Macroinvertebrate richness
                                                                                                                         Booth and others (2004)




                                                                                                                         Kennen and others (2010)
Frequency
Number of flood events;




Number of low-flow events
Riparian




vegetation
Riparian tree abundance
                                                                                                                         Lytle and Merritt (2004)
Duration
Duration of high-flow events;




Duration of low-flow events
Fish
Fish abundance;




Fish-assemblage composition
                                                                                                                         Koel and Sparks (2002)
Rate of change
Mean rise rate;




Mean fall rate
Fish
Fish abundance;




Fish-assemblage composition
                                                                                                                         Koel and Sparks (2002)
                                                                                                                                                     78

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6.7  Develop Qualitative or Quantitative Flow-Ecology Models





A flow-ecology model is a specific type of stressor-response model that describes the relation between a flow




indicator and a biological indicator in absolute terms (for example, fish diversity as a function of annual peak




flow magnitude) or relative to reference conditions (for example, the percent change in fish diversity as a




function of the percent change in annual peak flow magnitude).





Guided by the conceptual model, quantitative flow-ecology models are developed by using statistical methods




and used to predict the value of a biological indicator under a variety of flow conditions (Figure 12).




Quantitative flow-ecology models take the form of linear or nonlinear regression equations, but other




approaches, such as regression tree analysis or change point analysis, also are available. Their development is




guided by a variety of exploratory data-analysis techniques to characterize individual indicator datasets (their




range, average, distribution, etc.), evaluate potential relations, and determine appropriate modeling methods.




A thorough review of statistical methods to employ for stressor-response modeling is provided in the report




"Using stressor-response relations to derive numeric nutrient criteria" (U.S. Environmental  Protection Agency,




2010b). An example approach to flow-target development using quantitative modeling is described in Section




6.9 (see Table 3 and Figure 13).
                                                                                                  79

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                    15 E
                     O3 CO
                  O
                  to
                 _0
                  O
                 CD
J3 S
-a =
o, =
-a E
2 E
O} O
                            Gray bands along curves indicate
                            the degree of uncertainty
                                                                  Curve B
                          Natural flow
                          conditions
                                               Flow indicator
                                                 Highly altered
                                                    flow
Figure 12. Example flow-ecology curves illustrating quantitative relations between flow and biological

indicators. (Quantitative models provide continuous predictions of biological responses to flow alteration.

Curve A depicts a flow-ecology relation with higher sensitivity but greater uncertainty than those associated

with Curve B.)
As introduced in Section 4.5, confounding variables are associated with alternative stressors and pathways

(that is, other than flow alteration) to a given biological response. The presence of confounding variables at

biological monitoring sites can limit the strength of causal inferences about the association between altered

streamflow and biological indicators (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2010b). Where feasible,

confounding variables should be factored into the development of quantitative flow-ecology models. In
                                                                                                    80

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practice, researchers have dealt with this issue by explicitly including possible confounding variables in




preliminary models (for example, Carlisle and others,. 2010), by using modeling approaches that implicitly




assume the presence of other confounding factors (for example, Konrad and others, 2008; Kennen and others,




2010), or, at a minimum, acknowledging that potential confounding factors were not included in modeling




efforts, but that other evidence indicates that their influence likely was minimal (for example, Merritt and




Poff, 2010).





Available data may be insufficient to support quantitative flow-ecology modeling, or that data or analytical




limitations result in quantitative relations with a low level of statistical significance. In such cases, qualitative




flow-ecology modeling is a practical alternative. Qualitative  modeling does not attempt to uncover precise




numerical relations between flow and biological indicators. Rather, the objective is to describe relations




between variables based on hypothesized cause-effect associations using any available evidence. Qualitative




modeling can help identify the direction of flow-ecology relations, and possible thresholds for degraded




conditions,  in data-limited environments.





The conceptual models discussed in Sections 4.1 and 6.4 are examples of qualitative models; however, it may




be useful to reformulate conceptual models in terms of the flow and biological indicators selected for analysis.




Qualitative  models can incorporate numerical flow alteration and biological response thresholds reported in




relevant literature, and (or) available data on reference flow and biological conditions. Such models are




sometimes  referred to as semiquantitative because they include numeric values but, unlike quantitative




models, do  not allow for precise predictions across the full spectrum of flow alteration. Qualitative modeling




can incorporate a set of decision rules for combining and weighting conclusions from existing studies that used




inconsistent study designs and data (Webb and others, 2013). An example approach to flow-target




development using qualitative modeling is described in  Section 6.9 (see Table 3 and Figure 14).
                                                                                                  81

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6.8  Estimate Effects and Identify Acceptable Levels





After modeling flow-ecology relations, dividing lines between acceptable and unacceptable flow alteration to




select numeric flow targets can be determined. Effects characterization can guide this process. In general,




effects characterization involves estimating effects levels that correspond to increasing magnitudes of a




stressor. Effects characterization can define the likelihood that biological goals will not be achieved given a




certain magnitude of flow alteration. Effects estimates are categorical (low, medium, high) or numeric (the




probability of not meeting a certain biological condition). Effects estimation integrates quantitative or




qualitative flow-ecology models, biological goals, and other available evidence.





In cases where quantitative flow-ecology models are available, effects estimation may be centered on the




numerical relations between flow and biological indicators and their uncertainty. For example, descriptive




effects levels are assigned to incremental flow-indicator values on the basis of predicted effects on stream




biota and the degree of uncertainty associated with those predictions (for example, narrative effects




statements based on the  Biological Condition Gradient [Davies and Jackson, 2006] may provide useful




examples). When quantitative models are not available, effects estimates are generated from qualitative flow-




ecology models, results of past observational studies, information on current and expected levels of flow




alteration, and any other  lines of evidence. For more detailed information on characterization and estimation,




see,  "Guidelines for Ecological Risk Assessment" (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1998) and "Risk




Characterization  Handbook"  (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2000c).





Effects estimation can be  guided by threshold values or range of biological indicators, concentration of the




stressor magnitude response, etc.  that correspond to attainment or  non-attainment of biological goals.  For




some biological indicators, point thresholds may be readily apparent from past studies or known reference




conditions, or may be defined by existing biological criteria (for example, Index of Biotic Integrity = 90).
                                                                                                   82

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Alternatively, available evidence may point to a range of biological-indicator values as a suitable threshold (for




example, Index of Biotic Integrity between 80 and 90).





After generating effects estimates, numeric flow targets are determined by identifying acceptable levels




toward attainment of biological goals. For example, if flow-indicator values are divided into high, medium, or




low effects ranges, the decision to set the flow target to the high-medium effects breakpoint, the low-medium




breakpoint, or some alternative level is made. The process of identifying acceptable effects levels offers an




opportunity to further incorporate uncertainty (for example, uncertainty caused by natural temporal and




spatial variability of biological and hydrologic processes, sampling, etc.) in flow-ecology models and is helpful




for soliciting and incorporating feedback from stakeholders and the public. The utility of feedback received at




this step will likely be maximized if stakeholders have been kept informed and involved throughout the




completion of prior steps. Decisions on whether and how to act on suggested modifications to acceptable




effects levels and proposed numeric flow targets are weighed according to the strength of scientific support




for the change and implications for meeting biological goals.





After acceptable effects levels have been identified and flow targets have been quantified, planning for




implementation is enhanced  by several key activities. Peer review can be used to evaluate the strength of




flow-target values and highlight areas for improvement. Targeted monitoring or  modeling can support




validation of the ability of flow targets to achieve desired goals. Finally, an adaptive management approach




allows flow targets to be periodically evaluated and adjusted to ensure that the desired goals are achieved.




The adaptive management approach is continually informed and updated by results of monitoring, research,




and experimentation to address specific uncertainties. (See Richter and others [2003] and Konrad and  others




[2011] for specific examples.)
                                                                                                  83

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6.9  Example Applications of the Flow-Target Framework





Two hypothetical efforts to quantify flow targets to protect aquatic life (referred to as Scenario A and Scenario




B) are described in Table 3. Each scenario represents one potential application of the framework discussed in




this section (Section 6) to quantitatively translate the following narrative flow criterion: Changes to the natural




flow regime shall not impair the ability of a stream to support characteristic fish populations. The two




scenarios differ in their approach to several framework steps. These scenarios are not intended to convey




recommended methods, but rather describe example approaches for each step and demonstrate the




adaptability of the framework to project-specific goals and available resources.





Scenario A is a case in which a state incorporates existing numeric biological condition criteria and an ample




hydrologic and biological dataset for quantitative flow-ecology modeling, in which the resulting flow-ecology




curves are used as a focal point for estimating effects, identifying acceptable  effects levels, and selecting




numeric flow targets. In Step 1, biological goals and assessment endpoints are selected from state WQS, which




define minimum acceptable values offish Index of Biotic Integrity (IBI) scores for attaining designated uses. In




Step 2, statewide stream classification is undertaken to assign stream segments to one of 10 classes on the




basis of catchment size and temperature regime (cold headwater, warm large river, etc.). In Step 3, the




literature review uncovers extensive evidence for the effect of summer base-flow depletion on fish diversity




and abundance. Conceptual models are developed in Step 4 to demonstrate pathways between




anthropogenic sources of summer base-flow depletion and effects on fish populations. Data compiled in Step




5 include fish-survey results, flow-monitoring records, and modeled  streamflow data for ungaged stream




segments. In Step 6, fish  IBI score and the percent reduction in August median flow are determined to be




appropriate indicators for flow-ecology modeling because they reflect biological goals and sufficient data are




available for analysis. Regression modeling is undertaken in Step 7 by using paired biological and flow data to




generate response curves that quantify relations between fish IBI score and reduced August median flow.






                                                                                                  84

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Separate response curves are developed for each of the 10 stream classes defined for the project so that




selected targets are transferable between stream segments within each class. In Step 8, fish response curves




are used to guide discussions with stakeholders of acceptable effects levels to fish populations and to identify




appropriate targets for August median flow.





In Scenario B, qualitative flow-ecology models are generated and integrated with other lines of evidence to




identify a set of flow indicators that, if altered, present an unacceptable effect to aquatic communities. In Step




1, the state's WQS do not include biological criteria that establish assessment endpoints defining biological




goals, so the state takes appropriate actions, and includes stakeholder input, to identify specific biological




goals that are consistent with its designated aquatic life uses. This effort identifies specific fish species and




functional groups that are key to ensuring attainment of the state's designated aquatic life uses and, in turn,




establishes the goals for interpreting the state's narrative flow criteria.  In  Step 2, the decision is made to




include all streams in the state in the effort and opt not to address stream classification until after the




literature review of flow-ecology relations is complete. Literature reviewed in Step 3 demonstrates clear links




between fish health and a broad range of flow components.  Because documented relations are consistent




across stream size and ecoregion, stream classification is not pursued. The conceptual models developed in




Step 4 summarize known and hypothesized flow needs of fish,  organized by fish species/functional group,




season, and flow characteristic.  Data compiled in Step 5 focus on streamflow, with long-term records used to




calculate reference and affected values of more than 50 flow metrics to evaluate the sensitivity of each metric




to anthropogenic sources of flow alteration. On the basis of this analysis and  evidence for biological sensitivity,




a subset of flow metrics is selected in Step  6. A lack of biological data is determined to prohibit quantitative




flow-ecology modeling; therefore, qualitative modeling is undertaken in Step 7 to reframe conceptual models




in terms of the subset of flow indicators identified during Step  6. In Step 8, participating agencies review




available evidence to estimate effects associated with increasing levels  of hydrologic change and, with public






                                                                                                   85

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input, use effects estimates to set targets that express the maximum allowable deviation from reference




conditions for each flow indicator.





Although the examples in Scenarios A and B are largely hypothetical, components were drawn from real-world




examples. Many more case studies of flow-target quantification can be found in Colorado Division of Water




Resources and Colorado Water Conservation Board (2009), Cummins and others (2010), DePhilip and Moberg




(2010), Kendy and others (2012), Kennen and others (2013), Richardson (2005), and Zorn and others (2008).
                                                                                               86

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Table 3. Example applications of the framework to quantitatively translate the following narrative flow criterion: "Changes to the natural flow regime
shall not impair the ability of a stream to support characteristic fish populations."
  Framework Step
(1) Link narrative




criteria to biological




goals and assessment




endpoints
                  Scenario A: Quantitative Example
Numeric biological goals are defined from existing biological condition




criteria, expressed as minimum acceptable values offish Index of Biotic




Integrity (IBI) scores.
                   Scenario B: Qualitative Example
Narrative biological goals are defined through interpretation of the




narrative flow criterion and stakeholder input. Each biological goal




identifies a specific fish species or functional group to protect. Example




biological goal: to maintain the abundance of riffle obligate species.
(2) Define scope of




action: identify target




streams
Statewide stream classification is undertaken that builds on prior stream




mapping and fish-ecology research. Individual stream segments are




assigned to one of 10 stream classes according to catchment size and




water-temperature regime, characteristics known to affect fish




distributions. Example stream class: cold headwater.
All streams in the state are included in the effort to develop flow targets.




As a result of data and resource constraints, the need for stream




classification following the literature review is evaluated.
(3) Conduct literature
review
Literature is reviewed to identify flow-regime changes that most affect




the condition offish communities. Relevant literature points to summer




base-flow depletion as a key factor in reduced fish diversity and




abundance throughout the state.
Literature is reviewed to highlight flow-dependent life history and habitat




traits offish species/functional groups referenced in Step 1. Relevant




literature demonstrates the importance of a wide range of flow conditions




on the health offish communities in the state, with consistent relations




identified across stream size and ecoregion. On the basis of these findings,




a systematic stream classification is not needed.
                                                                                                                                                            87

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  Framework Step
(4) Develop




conceptual models
Conceptual models depict pathways between anthropogenic sources of




summer base-flow depletion and effects on fish populations. Important




relations include reduced food availability for both benthic and water-




column taxa as a result of reduced wetted-channel perimeter and water




depth.
Conceptual models summarize known and hypothesized flow needs offish,




organized by fish species/functional group, season, and flow characteristic.
(5) Conduct data




inventory
A database of existing flow and fish-survey records is prepared. Observed




data are augmented with predictions from previous hydrologic modeling




efforts. Modeled data include reference and present-day values of




median monthly streamflow for every stream segment in the state.
Long-term daily flow records, land-use information, and water-use data are




compiled. Reference streams (those with minimal flow alteration) and




affected streams are identified. Flow records for these sites are used to




calculate reference and affected values of 50 or more flow metrics. The




sensitivity of each flow metric to anthropogenic sources flow alteration is




quantified by comparing reference and affected values.
(6) Identify flow and




biological indicators




to serve as measures




of exposure and




effect
Two indicators are selected for quantitative flow-ecology modeling: fish




Index of Biotic Integrity score and the percent reduction in August




median flow (relative to reference conditions).
A subset of the flow metrics quantified in Step 5 is selected for flow-target




development. Metrics are evaluated according to their sensitivity to




anthropogenic sources flow alteration and evidence of biological




relevance. Flow indicators describe magnitude and frequency




characteristics of high/flood flows, seasonal/average flows, and




low/drought flows.
(7) Develop flow-




ecology models
Regression modeling is undertaken by using monitoring and modeling




data from sites with paired flow and biological data. Final models
Qualitative flow-ecology models are developed by reframing conceptual




models in terms of the flow indicators selected in Step 6 (Figure 14).
                                                                                                                                                            88

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  Framework Step
                      (termed "fish response curves"; see Figure 13) quantify the relation




                      between fish IBI scores and reduced August median flow. Fish response




                      curves are generated for each of the 10 stream classes defined in Step 2.
(8) Estimate effects




and identify




acceptable levels
Fish response curves are divided into high, medium, and low effects




levels and shared with stakeholders to guide discussion of acceptable




levels. Because of model uncertainty,  participating agencies and




stakeholders add a 5-percent margin of safety to fish IBI thresholds




defined in Step 1 and agree that flow alteration resulting in IBI scores




below this threshold present an unacceptable effects to fish




communities. Flow targets determined from fish response curves and




acceptable effects levels are selected for each stream class. Targets are




expressed as a maximum allowable percentage reduction in August




median flow by stream type.
Participating agencies review available evidence to estimate effects




associated with increasing levels of hydrologic change. For some flow




indicators, past studies indicate the likelihood of high effect of biological




degradation under any magnitude of flow change. For others, healthy




biotic communities are observed under moderate flow change and are




determined to pose a lower effect if altered. This information is shared




with stakeholders to further refine effects estimates and levels of flow




alteration presenting unacceptable effects to stream biota. The outcome




of these discussions is a set of targets expressing the maximum allowable




deviation from reference conditions for each flow indicator that will




protect the aquatic life use.
Follow-up and




adaptive




management
Participating agencies continue to collect flow and fish-community data.




A plan is developed to assess flow targets every 5 years by analyzing new




and historic data for evidence of their effectiveness.
Participating agencies continue to collect flow and fish-community data. A




plan is developed to assess flow targets every 5 years by analyzing new and




historic data for evidence of their effectiveness.
                                                                                                                                                              89

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                   o
                   •D
                   Vt

                   CD
JBI_goal_defined_
in step S


IBI goal defined
in step 1
                                     I
                                  Percent change in August median flow
Figure 13. Example fish response curve from Scenario A generated through regression modeling. (In this


scenario, fish response curves depict the relation between altered August median flow and fish-community


condition; IBI, Index of Biotic Integrity)
                                                                                                  90

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            Flow Components and Needs: Major Tributaries
        10000
            Example: 01543500 Sinnemahoning Creek at Sinnemahoning, PA (585 s
              " • High Flow-related needs
                • Seasonal Flow needs
                • Low Flow-related needs
         5000
         4000
               Flow Component (Daily Exceedance Probability )
                   High Flow Events (Q. .toQ,,)
                   Seasonal Flow (QJ= toQ. ,)
                 H Low Flow (Q. to Q....)
                 •S Minimum to 0,5
                   FALL
t
                                    WINTER
                Cue diadromous
         2000  fish emigration
             Ul
                • Maintain stable
              hibernation habitats
    * Maintain ke scour
    events and floodplain
    connectivity

      Support winter
    •mergence of aquatic
    Insects and maintain
    overwinter habitat for
    macroinvertebrates

     • Maintain overwinter
    habitats for resident fish
                                    RING
                             Maintain channel
                           morphology. Island formation,
                           and Roodplain habitat

  Cue alosid spawning
migration and promote egg and
larval development
  Support spring emergence of
aquatic insects and maintain
habitats for mating and, egg
laving


 • Support resident fish
spav
                                                            SUMMER
                          • Transport organic matter and fine
                          sediment
                          • *•  Promote vegetation growth
                                                                     M
• Cue and direct immigration of juvenile
American Eel
* Provide abundant food resources and
nesting and feeding habitats for birds
and mammals
•• Support development and growth of
all fishes, reptiles, and amphibians
•• Maintain connectivity between
habitats and refugia for resident and
diadromous fishes
•  • Support mussel spawning, glochidia
release, and growth
  • Promote macroinvertebrate growth
  » Maintain water quality
• Maintain hyporhek habitat
                                                                                     I
                                                                                                          i of
Figure 14. Conceptual diagram illustrating hypothesized flow needs offish and other aquatic biota by

season in major tributaries of the Susquehanna River Basin, northeastern United States. (Example

hydrograph shown is from U.S. Geological Survey station 01543500, Sinnemahoning Creek at

Sinnemahoning, Pennsylvania  [drainage basin 685 square miles]; as described in Scenario B, conceptual

diagrams are used in conjunction with information on natural flow variability, flow alteration, and biological

response thresholds to quantify candidate flow targets.) (From DePhilip and Moberg, 2010)
                                                                                                                    91

-------
7   Conclusions





The flow regime plays a central role in supporting healthy aquatic ecosystems and the ecological services they




provide to society. A stream's natural flow regime is determined by climate and other catchment and reach




scale properties that affect hydrologic processes such as infiltration, groundwater recharge, or channel




storage. Human activities can alter the flow regime  by modifying streamflow-generation processes (for




example, infiltration, overland flow, etc.), altering the physical properties of stream channels (for example,




channelization), or through direct manipulation of surface water and groundwater (dams or water




withdrawals). Climate change effects on patterns of water and energy inputs to streams may further




exacerbate these effects of flow on aquatic ecosystems.





Alterations to the natural flow regime can contribute to the degradation of biological communities by reducing




habitat quality, extent, and connectivity and by failing to provide cues needed for aquatic species to complete




their life cycles. Flow alteration can prevent water bodies from supporting aquatic  life designated uses defined




by state water quality standards. Water quality programs implemented to address  the Clean Water Act (CWA)




objective of restoring and maintaining the chemical, physical and biological integrity of waters ideally consider




strategies to maintain key components of the natural flow regime. This report was cooperatively developed to




serve as a source of information for states, tribes, and territories that may want to proactively protect aquatic




life from the adverse effects of flow alteration. It provides background information on the natural flow regime




and potential effects of flow alteration on aquatic life, a summary of CWA programs that can be used to




support the natural flow regime, and a flexible, nonprescriptive  framework to quantify targets for flow regime




components that are  protective of aquatic life.
                                                                                                 92

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Appendix A. Overview of the Clean Water Act and Water Quality Standards Relevant to the





    Development and Use of Criteria for Hydrologic Condition





In 1972, with the objective of protecting lakes, rivers, streams, estuaries, wetlands, coastal waters, the ocean,




and other water bodies, the U.S. Congress enacted comprehensive amendments to the Federal Water




Pollution Control Act, now commonly known as the Clean Water Act (CWA). The overall objective of the CWA




is to "restore and maintain the chemical, physical and biological integrity of the Nation's waters" (Section




101(a)). In addition, the CWA establishes as an interim goal "water quality which provides for the protection




and propagation offish, shellfish and wildlife and provides for recreation in and on the water/' wherever




attainable (Section 101(a)(2)). Section 303(c)(l) of the CWA provides that states must review, and revise as




appropriate, their water quality standards (WQS) at least once every 3 years. Section 303(c)(3) requires the




U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to review and approve or disapprove such new or revised WQS.




Specific requirements and procedures for developing, reviewing, revising, and approving WQS are outlined in




the Code of Federal Regulations, Chapter  I, Subchapter D, part 131 (40 CFR Part 131)




(http://www.ecfr.gov/cgi-bin/text-idx?node=pt40.22.131&rgn=div5).





Generally speaking, WQS define the water quality goals for a water body, or part of a water body, by (1)




designating the use or uses of the water; (2) setting criteria sufficient to protect those designated uses; and (3)




preserving water quality that exceeds the levels necessary to support propagation of fish, shellfish, and




wildlife and recreation in and on the water, as well as existing uses, through antidegradation provisions. States




adopt WQS to protect public health or welfare, enhance the quality of water, and serve the purposes of the




CWA. WQS serve as the regulatory basis for establishing water quality-based treatment controls and




strategies, such as National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) permits and Total Maximum Daily




Loads(TMDLs).
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Al. Designated Uses and Existing Uses





EPA's regulatory provisions regarding designated uses are defined in 40 CFR Section 131.10. Designated uses




are those uses specified in the state's WQS for each water body or segment regardless of whether or not




those uses are actually being attained. Designated uses are a state's concise statements of its management




objectives and expectations for each of the individual surface waters under its jurisdiction and may include




(but are not limited to) propagation of fish, shellfish and wildlife (including protection of human health when




consuming aquatic life), recreation, agricultural uses,  industrial uses, navigation, and (or) public water supply.




Water quality criteria are adopted to protect the designated uses. When designating uses and adopting




criteria, states and tribes must consider the WQS of downstream waters, and ensure that the designated uses




and criteria provide for the attainment and maintenance of the WQS of downstream waters (40 CFR Section
Existing uses are defined in 40 CFR Section 131. 3(e) as uses that have been "actually attained" in a water body




on or after November 28, 1975. Existing uses are known to have been "actually attained" when the use has




actually occurred and the water quality necessary to support the use has been attained. The EPA recognizes,




however, that all necessary data may not be available to determine whether the use actually occurred or the




water quality to support the use has been attained. When determining an existing use, EPA provides




substantial flexibility to states and authorized tribes to evaluate the strength of the available data and




information where data may be limited, inconclusive, or insufficient regarding whether the use has occurred




and the water quality necessary to support the use has been attained. In this instance, states and authorized




tribes may decide that based on such information, the use is indeed existing (Water Quality Standards




Regulatory Revisions; Final Rule; 80 FR 51027; August 21, 2015). Determination of existing uses that actually




have been attained in a water body is done on a site-specific basis and may involve evaluating data on the




following:






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•   Historical/current water quality;





•   Historical/current biological condition; and





•   Historical pattern, frequency, and type of use.





Once a use has been designated for a particular water body or segment that designated use may be removed




under specific conditions. If a designated use is an existing use for a particular water body or segment,




however, it cannot be removed unless a use requiring more stringent criteria is added. As described in 40 CFR




Section 131.10(g), when removing a use for those uses specified in CWA Section 101(a)(2) or subcategories of




such a  use, the state or authorized tribe must demonstrate through a Use Attainability Analysis (UAA) that




attaining the use is not feasible because of one the six factors provided in the regulation. Additionally, if the




state or authorized tribe adopts a new or revised water quality standard based on a required UAA, they must




also adopt the highest attainable use (defined at 40 CFR Section 131.3(m)). If a state or authorized tribe wishes




to remove or revise a designated use that is a unrelated to the protection and propagation offish, shellfish,




wildlife or recreation in or on the water (i.e., a "non-101(a)(2) use"), the state or authorized tribe must submit




documentation justifying how its consideration of the use and value of water for the use appropriately




supports the state's or authorized tribe's action (see 40 CFR Sections 131.10(a) and 131.10(k)(3)).





A2. Water quality Criteria





Water  quality criteria are defined in 40 CFR Section 131.3(b) as constituent concentrations, levels, or narrative




statements representing a quality of water that supports a particular use, such as propagation of fish and




wildlife, recreation, and public water supply. EPA develops recommendations for many water quality criteria




under the authority of CWA Section 304(a). Consistent with EPA WQS regulation at 40 CFR Section 131.11, the




criteria that states adopt must meet the following requirements:





•   Be  based on a sound scientific rationale; and
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«  Include sufficient parameters (at acceptable concentrations and levels) to support protection of the




   designated uses of a particular water body, including the most sensitive use.





States adopting numeric criteria may either adopt the recommended criteria that EPA publishes into their




WQS, modify the EPA criteria to reflect site-specific conditions, or use other scientifically defensible methods




(40 CFR Section 131.11(b)(l)). States may also adopt narrative criteria or criteria based on biomonitoring




methods (40 CFR Section 131(b)(2)).





A3. Antidegradation





Antidegradation is an integral component of a comprehensive approach to protect and maintain water quality.




EPA antidegradation regulations are specified in 40 CFR Section 131.12. Each state and authorized tribe must




develop and adopt a statewide antidegradation policy (40 CFR Section 131.12(a)) and develop methods for




implementing the antidegradation policy that are, at minimum, consistent with the policy and EPA regulations




in 131.12(a) (40 CFR Section 131.12(b)). The state's or authorized tribe's antidegradation policy must ensure




the maintenance and protection of existing uses of a water body and the level of water quality necessary to




protect those existing uses (Tier 1);  maintain and protect water quality where the quality exceeds the levels




necessary to support propagation of fish, shellfish, and wildlife and recreation in and on the water, unless the




state or authorized tribe finds that allowing lower water quality is necessary to accommodate important




economic or social  development in the area where the waters are located (Tier 2); and provide for the




maintenance and protection of water quality in outstanding national resource waters identified by the state or




authorized tribe (Tier 3). The state or tribal antidegradation policy and implementation methods must be




consistent with EPA regulations, although states may adopt antidegradation statements that are more




protective than those prescribed by EPA.
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A4. Using Narrative Criteria





Narrative water quality criteria are qualitative statements that describe the desired water quality condition




sufficient to protect applicable designated uses—for example, "no toxic compounds in toxic concentrations."




Many states have adopted narrative criteria. Where narrative criteria are in place, they may serve as the basis




for limiting the discharge of contaminants from permitted discharges when there is reasonable potential that




a specific contaminant will cause or contributes to an exceedance of the narrative criteria, regardless of




whether numeric criteria are in place to address the contaminant. EPA's regulatory provisions for satisfying




narrative criteria in NPDES permits are specified in Section 40 CFR 122.44. Where a state or authorized tribe




adopts narrative criteria for toxic pollutants to protect designated uses, the state or authorized tribe must




provide information identifying the method by which they intend to translate the narrative for use in




development of NPDES permit limits (40 CFR Section 131.11(a)(2)). For other pollutants, states and authorized




tribes may  include a procedure to translate narrative criteria in their WQS to facilitate the development of




NPDES permit limits and other quantitative targets.
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Appendix B. Legal Background and Relevant Case Law





The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) notes that it has been argued "that the Clean Water Act is




only concerned with water 'quality/ and does not allow the regulation of water 'quantity.'" Public Utility




District No. 1 of Jefferson County v. Washington Department of Ecology ("PUD No.l"), 511 U.S. 700, 719-




(1994). In PUD No. 1, the U.S. Supreme Court, however, found that the distinction between water quality and




water quantity is "artificial," explaining that "[i]n  many cases, water quantity is closely related to water




quality; a sufficient lowering of the water quantity in a body of water could destroy all of its designated uses,




be it for drinking water, recreation, navigation or....as a fishery." Id.





The Court, in PUD No.l, cited various provisions of the CWA that recognize that "reduced stream flow, I.e.,




diminishment of water quantity, can constitute water pollution," including the Act's definition of "pollution"




as "the man-made or man-induced alteration of the chemical, physical, biological, and radiological integrity of




water" in Section 502(19). 511 U.S. at 719-720. The Supreme  Court held in that case that "[t]his  broad




conception of pollution - one which expressly evinces Congress' concern with the physical and biological




integrity of water - refutes petitioners' assertion  that the Act draws a sharp distinction between the




regulation of water 'quantity' and water 'quality'." 511 U.S. 719.





The Court held that the State of Washington had  authority to impose minimum flow conditions on a FERC-




licensed project through Section 401 of the CWA  to protect designated  uses and comply with the State's




antidegradation policy. Despite the fact that the State of Washington did not have specific flow criteria, the




State had determined that the project and license at issue and as proposed would not comply with one of the




designated uses for the water body at issue,  Class AA (fish rearing, spawning, and harvesting). The Court held




that CWA Section 401 certifications may include conditions to ensure compliance with not only criteria, but




also designated uses and antidegradation requirements.
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In S.D. Warren Co. v. Maine Board of Environmental Protection ("S.D.Warren") 547 U.S. 370, 385 (2006), the




Supreme Court held that "Congress passed the Clean Water Act to 'restore and maintain the chemical,




physical, and biological integrity of the Nation's waters,'....the 'national goal' being to achieve 'water quality




which provides for the protection and propagation offish, shellfish, and wildlife and provides for recreation in




and on the water,'...." To do this, the Act does not stop at controlling the 'addition of pollutants,' but deals




with 'pollution' generally ...., which Congress defined to mean 'the man-made or man-induced alteration of




the chemical, physical, biological, and radiological integrity of water." Id. "The alteration of water quality as




thus defined is a  risk inherent in limiting flow and releasing water through turbines. Warren itself admits that




its dams "can cause changes in the movement, flow and circulation of a river.... caus[ing] a river to absorb less




oxygen and to be less passable by boaters and fish..." Id. "Changes in the river like these fall within a State's




legitimate legislative business, and the Clean Water Act provides for a system that respects the State's




concerns." 547 U.S. at 386. The Court upheld the State of Maine's CWA Section 401 certification requiring




minimum flows to protect the designated  fishing and recreational uses of an affected water body for which




Maine did not have an explicit flow criterion.





The Supreme Court, in PUD No.l, also addressed arguments raised by the  petitioners that Sections 101(g) and




510(2) of the CWA exclude the regulation  of water quantity from the coverage of the CWA, specifically arguing




that "these provisions exclude 'water quantity issues from direct regulation under the federally controlled




water quality standards in § 303." 511 U.S. at 720. The Supreme Court noted the peculiarity of the petitioners'




argument that these provisions (which give the  states authority to allocate water rights) prevent states from




regulating streamflow. The Court went on to address the  meaning of these provisions and found that




"[s]ections 101(g) and 510(2) preserve the authority of each State to allocate water quantity as between users;




they do not limit the scope of water pollution controls that may be imposed on users who have obtained,




pursuant to state law, a water allocation." Id. The Court cited its decision in California v. Federal Energy






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Regulatory Commission (FERC), 495 U.S. 490, 498 (1990), construing an analogous provision of the Federal




Power Act, where the Court explained that "minimum stream flow requirements neither reflect nor establish




proprietary rights" to water. 511 U.S. at 720.





In reaching its decision upholding the State's authority to require minimum streamflow requirements




necessary to protect state water quality standards, the Court noted that its view was reinforced by the 1977




amendments to the CWA adding Section 101(g). The Court quoted from the Library of Congress, Congressional




Research Service, Environmental Policy Division (1978): "The requirements [of the Act] may incidentally affect




individual water rights....It is not the purpose of this amendment to prohibit those incidental effects. It is the




purpose of this amendment to [e]nsure that State allocation systems are not subverted, and that effects on




individual rights, if any, are prompted by legitimate and necessary water quality considerations." 511 U.S. at




721.
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Appendix C. Climate-Change Vulnerability and the Flow Regime





Climate change is one category of stressors among many (see Section 4.3) that increase the vulnerability of




rivers and streams to flow alteration and affect the ecosystem services they provide. Changes in global




temperature and shifts in precipitation are superimposed on local stressors such as water contamination,




habitat degradation, exotic species, and flow modification (Dudgeon and others, 2006). Given the challenges




posed by climate change, many natural-resource management agencies likely will find protecting and




restoring the health of aquatic ecosystems increasingly challenging. For example, projected changes in




temperature and precipitation due to climate change are  expected to increase the departures from historic




conditions. This means that using the past envelope of variability as a guide for the future is no longer a




reliable assumption in water-resources management (Milly and others, 2008). Observed streamflow trends




since about 1940 indicate regional changes in low flows, high flows, and timing of winter/spring runoff (U.S.




Environmental Protection Agency, 2014b). However, there is much uncertainty about the future effect of




climatically driven changes on streamflow. Even though knowledge of national and regional climate-change




effects are useful at a coarse scale, water scientists need to  move from generalizations of climate-change




effects to more regional and (or) place-based effects to develop approaches relevant to the scale of




management (Palmer and others, 2009). Global, national, and  regional effects are described comprehensively




elsewhere (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007; Field and others, 2014; Georgakakos and




others, 2014; Karl and others, 2009).





Resilience is the ability of a system to recover after disturbance and the capacity of that system to maintain its




functions in spite of the disturbance (Turner and others, 2003; Walker and others, 2004). Restoring or




maintaining a natural flow regime can increase system resilience to climate-change effects and help avoid or




reduce intensification of historical stresses (Beechie and others, 2013; Palmer and others, 2008, 2009; Pittock




and Finlayson, 2011; Poff and others, 2012). Therefore, defining and protecting environmental flows is not





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only a way to protect and restore rivers and streams from anthropogenic stressors, but it may also be a means




of adapting to climate-change.





Not all rivers and streams are equally vulnerable to the effects of climate change. An assessment of climate-




change vulnerability can help identify locations and hydrologic and ecological attributes that are most




vulnerable to altered climate conditions. A climate-change vulnerability assessment, at a minimum, will supply




specific information on the type of climate change expected across the assessed area. Depending on the scope




of the effort, a climate-change vulnerability assessment may also translate projected changes in climate into




effects on flow and (or) aquatic biota. This information is valuable for planning and implementation of Clean




Water Act program strategies to support the resilience of aquatic life to a changing climate. Furthermore, flow




and biological projections are incorporated into efforts to quantify flow targets that are protective of aquatic




life under both historic and projected future climate conditions.





Approaches for assessing climate-change vulnerability are evolving and becoming  more robust (Dawson and




others, 2011). This appendix describes the components of vulnerability (Box I) and presents two examples




from studies in California (Box J) and the Pacific Northwest (Box K) that illustrate the ways in which regional




climate-change effects are being incorporated into vulnerability studies of the flow regime and the potential




resulting effects on aquatic life  (Box J).
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Box I. Components of Climate-Change Vulnerability





The paragraphs that follow briefly describe the primary components of climate-change vulnerability that may




be included in climate vulnerability assessments: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. An in-depth




discussion of these components is available in Click and others (2011) and Poff and others (2012). Generalized




case examples available in Click and others (2011) demonstrate assessment approaches for climate




vulnerability assessments across various ecosystems and species, both aquatic and terrestrial. Examples that




focus  on watershed vulnerability and aquatic resources are included in Furniss and others (2013). An




additional resource (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2014a) is a workbook for organizations managing




environmental resources that provides a two-part process to carry out vulnerability assessments and develop




effects-based adaptation plans  for strategic climate-change plans.





Exposure: Exposure generally refers to the character, magnitude, and rate of climatic changes (Click and




others, 2011). Results of climate model simulations such as regional climate projections or downscaled climate




projections, though accompanied by uncertainty, can help to estimate the range and location of potential




climate change. Identifying sources of increased past variability may also be helpful (for example, paleoclimate




records of tree-rings). Those changes that are ecologically significant (for example, those that affect an




assessment endpoint) are considered as exposure metrics (for example, snowpack vulnerability, winter water




temperature, aridity index, monthly precipitation, winter peak flows, freeze and thaw days, etc.) Additional




examples of exposure metrics used in case studies are given in Furniss and others (2013).





Sensitivity: Climate sensitivity is the degree to which a system, habitat, or species is (or is likely to be) altered




by or  responsive to a given amount of climate change (in this case, climate-induced hydrologic changes in




particular) (Click and others, 2011). Sensitivity factors can include  intrinsic attributes of a watershed, aquatic




ecosystem, or organism, as well as the existing condition owing to anthropogenic factors. For example, the




hydrology in a snowmelt-dominated watershed (and the ecosystem that is adapted to this hydrologic regime)




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may be more sensitive to climate changes that reduce the proportion of precipitation from snow than that in a




rainfall-dominated watershed (see the Beechie and others [2013] example in Box K). Many of the intrinsic




attributes at the landscape level (for example, geology, soil, topography) affect the sensitivity of the aquatic




ecosystem to any stressor. For example, the rate at which shifts in stream temperature can occur is driven by




variables such as stream slope and interannual variability—so the rate at which temperature gradients shift




are variable, even within a given basin, and statistically significant signals may not be detected for decades




(Isaak and Reiman, 2013). The intrinsic factors that affect sensitivity at the population scale may include




environmental tolerance range (for example, thermal tolerances), mobility, genetic adaptation, and range or




population size.





Adaptive Capacity: Adaptive capacity is the ability of a species or system to cope with or adjust to climate-




change effects with minimal disruption (Click and others, 2011). It is also a subset of system resilience and can




help managers assess vulnerability for use in decision making. Ecosystems and aquatic organisms can cope




with climate change in different ways; for example, they may migrate, shift to more suitable microhabitats, or




persist in place (for example, phenotypic plasticity) (Dawson and others, 2011). On a landscape scale, some




vulnerability assessment approaches include landscape/river connectivity under this component. Many




adaptive capacity factors may be those pre-existing conditions that future management conditions can




address (for example, reducing fragmentation of a water body, thereby preventing mobility to more suitable




conditions, such as cooler temperatures) (Click and others, 2011). The Pacific Northwest salmon restoration




case study (Box K) provides some examples of restoration practices Beechie and others (2013) identified as




adaptive activities that may ameliorate some of the expected climate changes and increase habitat diversity




and salmon population resilience.
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Box J. California's Climate-Change Vulnerability Index





The goal of the California Integrated Assessment of Watershed Health (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,




2013b) was to identify and better protect healthy watersheds by integrating data and making them available




to planning agencies for improved coordination of monitoring and prioritization of protection efforts. The




primary partners included the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Healthy Streams




Partnership (HSP), an interagency workgroup of the California Water Monitoring Council. The assessment




partners identified and integrated 23 indicators of watershed health, stream condition, and watershed




vulnerability to characterize relative watershed health and vulnerability across California. The indicators used




in this assessment reflect the reality that multiple ecological attributes and anthropogenic effects play a role in




watershed and stream health, and need to be considered together.





The integrated watershed vulnerability index used in the assessment of watershed health is a composite of




four vulnerability indices that may change from 2010 to 2050 (land cover, wildfire severity, water use, and




climate change). The composite climate-change vulnerability index,  in turn, is  composed of seven component




metrics of estimated climate-change parameters using projections from Cal-Adapt, a collaboration of several




institutions that modeled downscaled hydrologic response across California by using temperature and




precipitation projections produced from global general circulation models (GCMs). The interagency partners




used the modeled outputs to evaluate the relative response of watersheds in  California to future climate




change, but the models did not explicitly simulate effects on ecosystem health or watershed processes




(although they are certainly related to the modeled inputs),  nor was the sensitivity of those watersheds to




such changes a focus of this screening-level assessment. Rather, the vulnerability index is meant to be




assessed with the composite indices of stream health and watershed condition to help prioritize protection




opportunities.
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The HSP used annual precipitation, mean base flow, mean surface runoff, and snowpack (as snow water




equivalent) as the hydrologic responses to projected climate change because they were identified as the




primary indicators affecting stream hydrology. It also identified annual temperature maximum, minimum, and




mean as climate variables that may affect future watershed vulnerability. The interagency partners calculated




the percent difference between projected values of these indicators (that is, component metrics of exposure)




from 2050 and 2010.





The composite results of the vulnerability assessment (Figure C-l) illustrate the climate exposure primarily in




terms of its effects on temperature and hydrology-related parameters in this example. Overall, the  climate




vulnerability component of this assessment identified the greatest vulnerability for northern California as a




result of a combination of expected temperature increases and changes in snowpack, surface runoff, and base




flow.





This screening-level assessment is an instructive example that may help inform the protection of healthy




watersheds based on climate-change vulnerability. However, the assessment combined other vulnerability




indices—land cover, water use, and fire-regime class (which can affect surface erosion, sediment deposition,




and stream temperature)—with climate change as characteristics that could modify (exacerbate or




ameliorate) overall vulnerability. Additionally, this assessment not only sought to develop  priorities based on




ecosystem vulnerability, but also a comprehensive understanding of the overall status of the aquatic




ecosystem. For the entire assessment, stream condition, watershed health, and vulnerability were considered.





For more information,  see U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (2013b)




(http://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2015-ll/documents/ca hw  report  111213  O.pdf).
                                                                                               143

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                   4 Clinate-chin|»vulQ«rabili1y
S ProJKltd ckiigi in t »r fac» nnotl
                   Composite vdneraDlltv foas:wpj*, ang tirHn ninotf

                   C Pioject»d changt in snow pack
                                                        P?oj»c1ed cha»g* in raininMni temp»f iture
                                                                    IHf
Figure C-l. (a) Composite results of the vulnerability assessment illustrating the combined changes in the


seven component metrics of projected climate-change parameters, three of which are shown: (b) surface


runoff, (c) minimum temperature, and (d) snowpack. (Additional component metrics including projected

change in precipitation, mean temperature, maximum temperature, and baseflow are shown in U.S.


Environmental Protection Agency [2013b], available at

http://water.epa.gov/polwaste/nps/watershed/integrative_assessments.cfm.)
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Box K. Addressing Regional Climate-Change Effects on Salmon Habitat in the Pacific Northwest: Examples




for Prioritizing Restoration Activities





Salmon habitat restoration is a prominent issue in the Pacific Northwest; however, a need exists to better




understand whether current restoration activities and priorities will be effective under future climate




conditions. Beechie and others (2013) sought to address this issue by providing insight into ways in which a




restoration plan might be altered under various climate-change scenarios.





The authors developed a decision support system to adapt salmon recovery plans to address climate-




mediated stream temperature and flow changes in  order to both ameliorate climate effects and increase




salmon resilience. To guide the effort, the researchers mapped scenarios of future stream temperature and




flow and performed a literature review of current restoration practices.





The authors modeled stream temperature and flow from a multimodel average of daily gridded precipitation




and air temperature. By using the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model, the inputs were used to predict




daily runoff, runoff routing, and stream temperature and flow. (Additional information on the specifics of the




development of these parameters are found in Beechie  and others [2013].) The scenario mapping exercise




compared historical baseline (1970-99) water temperature and flow conditions to those projected for the




periods 2000-29, 2030-69, and 2070-99. The researchers modeled mean monthly flows, calculating the




change in magnitude and timing of maximum monthly flows between the future period and the historical




baseline for each stream cell. They modeled and mapped stream temperature directly. The results indicated




lower summer flows (35-75 percent lower), higher  monthly maximum flows (10-60 percent higher), and




higher air and stream temperatures (maximum weekly mean temperature 2-6 9C [degrees Celsius] higher).




Snowmelt-dominated hydrologic regimes across the region almost entirely disappeared by the 2070-99 time




period, and transitional (rain-snow mix) hydrologic  regimes contracted substantially as well. By the final 2070-

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99 time period, most of the region was characterized by a rainfall-dominated hydrologic regime. The authors




compared the projected stream-temperature changes to the known thermal thresholds and seasonal flows




needed during different salmonid life stages (Figure C-2).





Beechie and others (2013) carried out a literature review to identify restoration practices that could




ameliorate expected changes in streamflow (base-flow decrease and peak-flow increase) and stream




temperature, and increase habitat diversity and population resilience. The primary activities most likely to do




so include restoring flood-plain connectivity, restoring streamflow regimes, and reaggrading incised stream




channels.





This Pacific Northwest salmonid restoration example combines projected climate-exposure information and




known ecological sensitivities of salmonid species to improve understanding of potential vulnerability to




climate change. This knowledge can help inform management plans to prioritize restoration practices that are




more likely to be effective under projected climate scenarios.
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                Sep    Dec    Mar     Jun     Sep    Dec     Mar     Jun     Sep    Dec     Mar     Jun
                               Spawn KEmergeW    Rearing
•                Increased summer temperature may decrease growth or kill juvenile salmon where temperatures are already
                high, but may increase growth where temperatures are low. May also decrease spawning fecundity (e.g., Chum).

D                Decreased summer low flow may contribute to increased temperatures, decrease rearing habitat capacity for
                juvenile salmonids, and decrease access to or availability of spawning areas.

•                Increased winter floods may increase scour of eggs from the gravel, or increase mortality of rearing juveniles
                where flood refugia are not available.


                DLoss of spring snowmelt may decrease or eliminate spawning opportunities for spring spawners, and may alter
                survival of eggs or emergent fry for fall-spawning species.



Figure C- 2. Diagram showing effect of climate change on life stages of salmonids through time, by season.



(Modified from Beechie and others, 2013; white rectangles represent the freshwater life-history stage of



salmonids, gray boxes represent the ocean stage, and stippled lines indicate an alternate life-history)
The science of incorporating climate change into environmental flow assessments is young and complex.


Considerations for incorporating climate change  into the framework for developing flow targets to protect


aquatic life discussed in Section 6 and illustrated  in Figure  10 are presented below. This information can help


identify which ecologically significant flow indicators may be most affected by climate change (as determined


from the observed trends and projections). These examples can help elucidate relative climate effects (that is,


vulnerability) related to flow targets and the aquatic life uses they are designed to protect. States and tribes
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can more effectively prioritize limited resources and identify new management actions more strategically to




increase aquatic-ecosystem resilience. This framework is meant to be a qualitative assessment to rank relative




effects, which may help in identifying and ranking adaptive management actions in later steps. In a resource-




constrained environment, managers also need to evaluate the importance of projected climate change on key




hydrologic variables compared to that of hydrologic alteration from other anthropogenic sources. The ranking




of effects below can assist in this process to optimize management of limited resources.
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     Table Cl. Incorporating climate-change considerations into the framework for quantifying flow targets.
  Framework component
(1) Formally link narrative




criteria to biological goals
                          Potential climate-change considerations
May not be applicable to Step 1 unless climate changes affect biological expectations.
(2) Identify target streams
Consider which elements, if any, in the classification of target streams are climate dependent.
(3) Conduct literature
review
Consider all potential climate-change-related effects that could eventually threaten the target




streams. Identify available climate-change reports relevant to the region or state water resources.




Identify potential changes in ecologically relevant flow components from both observed trends and




projected changes. It may be helpful to create broad categories of effects and list specific stressors




by type for consideration in conceptual model development.
(4) Develop conceptual




models
Include climate change in development of conceptual models. Consider how climate-related




stressors can affect biological goals from various pathways, building on the findings obtained from




the literature review. The level of detail should be commensurate with the level of detail for




planning or screening.
(5) Inventory data
Identify which of the available observed hydrologic, climatic, and biological data may be affected by




climate-related stress identified in preceding steps. Consider observed data/projected information




to identify the already or potentially affected biological indicators and (or) flow indicators/flow-




regime components. Rate them considering the following qualitative categories: consequences




(low, medium, high); likelihood (low, medium, high); spatial extent (site, watershed, region); time




until problem begins (decades, within next 15 to 30 years, already occurring/likely occurring).










Consider sensitivity: Do some characteristics of the catchment increase or decrease sensitivity to




these climate stressors (for example, north-facing aspect or high elevations may reduce sensitivity




of snowmelt or water temperature to increased air temperature, whereas south-facing aspect or




low elevations may increase sensitivity).






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   Framework component
                          Potential climate-change considerations
 (6) Identify biological and




 flow indicators
Identify which biological and flow indicators may be most affected by climate change. Rate them by




considering the qualitative categories previously mentioned (consequence, likelihood, spatial




extent, time until problem begins).
 (7) Develop qualitative or




 quantitative flow-ecology




 models
Climate change considerations may not be applicable to Step 7.
 (8) Identify acceptable




 biological condition




 goals/effects levels
Compare range of potential likely climate changes to the potential flow targets.
 (9) Select candidate flow




 targets
Compare range of potential likely changes to the actual selected flow target.




Identify management adaptation actions and determine which of them are most appropriate given




the likely effect to flow targets/biological goals.
 (10) Monitor, evaluate, and




 periodically refine flow




 targets
Assess observed climate and hydrologic data for any emerging climate-change related trends in




variability of magnitude, frequency, duration, timing, and rate of change of flow. Identify and assess




new or updated climate-change projections. Are the updated projections consistent with observed




trends and (or) other existing projected information? How are the updated projections ecologically




significant? Do the updated climate change projections merit reassessment of acceptable effects




levels and the ability to meet environmental flow targets under current management practices?
As discussed in this appendix, climate change may challenge the management of aquatic resources because




past variability is no longer a reliable assumption for the future. However, protection of environmental flows




can serve as an adaptation tool, increasing resilience so that a system is more likely to  recover from the effects
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of climate change. Climate-change vulnerability assessments can help managers strategically address water-




resource protection in spite of uncertainty. Climate-change vulnerability assessment approaches are highly




diverse; the two presented here illustrate only two of the many possible approaches. The California example




(Box J) describes a screening-level assessment in which climate-change exposure is the focus, whereas the




Pacific Northwest example (Box K) additionally accounts for potential effects of climate exposure on




assessment endpoints, in large  part on the basis of the sensitivity of the biota and their life stages. The




information developed during a climate-change vulnerability assessment can help managers identify




differential effects to aquatic resources and understand the reasons that their resources are at risk so they can




set priorities and develop appropriate management responses.
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