Light-Duty Automotive Technology,
Carbon Dioxide Emissions, and
Fuel Economy Trends:
1975 Through 2015
Executive
v»EPA
United States
Environmental Protection
k Agency
EPA-420-S-15-001 December 2015
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Executive
Summary
INTRODUCTION
This report is the authoritative reference for carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, fuel economy, and
powertrain technology trends for new personal vehicles in the United States. The detailed data
supporting this report were obtained by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), directly from
automobile manufacturers, to support implementation ofEPA's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the
U.S. Department of Transportation's National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) Corporate
Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) programs. These data have been collected and maintained by EPA since
1975 and comprise the most comprehensive database of its kind. This report (the "Trends" report) has
been published annually since 1975 and covers all passenger cars, sport utility vehicles, minivans, and all
but the largest pickup trucks and vans.
Data for model years (MY) 1975 through 2014 are final. These data are submitted to the EPA and NHTSA
at the conclusion of the model year and include actual production data and the results of emission and
fuel economy testing performed by the manufacturers and EPA. Data for MY 2015 are preliminary
and based on projected production data provided to EPA by automakers prior to MY 2015 sales. The
uncertainty in these projections is magnified this year as U.S. gasoline prices decreased significantly in
the fall of 2014. MY 2015 values will be finalized in next year's report. All data in this report are based
on production volumes delivered for sale in the U.S. by model year, and may vary from publicized data
based on calendar year sales.
For the first time, because of increasing production, data from alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) are
integrated into the overall database, beginning with MY 2011 data. These vehicles include electric
vehicles, plug in hybrids, and compressed natural gas vehicles. The database continues to include
traditional hybrids and ethanol flexible fuel vehicles (assumed to operate on gasoline).
All of the tailpipe CO2 emissions and fuel economy values in this Executive Summary are adjusted values,
which are very similar to new car Fuel Economy and Environment Labels and are EPA's best estimate
of nationwide "real world" CO2 emissions and fuel consumption. This report does not provide formal
compliance values for EPA CO2 emissions standards and NHTSA CAFE standards, which are based on
unadjusted, laboratory values and various credits. The difference between adjusted and unadjusted
values is discussed in detail in Section 10 of the full report.
It is important to note that EPA has issued notices of violation to Volkswagen alleging that certain
MY 2009-2016 diesel vehicles are in violation of the Clean Air Act for excess oxides of nitrogen
emissions (see www.epa.gov/vw). In this report, EPA uses the CO2 emissions and fuel economy data
from the initial certification of these vehicles. Should the investigation and corrective actions yield
different CO2 and fuel economy data, the revised data will be used in future reports.
The full version of this report and the appendices are available at www.epa.gov/otaq/fetrends.htm.
Information about automaker compliance with EPA's GHG emissions standards is available in EPA's
"Manufacturer Performance Report" at www.epa.gov/otaq/climate/ghg-report.htm. Information about
automaker compliance with NHTSA's CAFE standards is available at NHTSA's CAFE Public Information
Center at www.nhtsa.gov/CAFE_PIC.
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Average vehicle CO2 emissions rate and fuel economy were
unchanged in MY 2014
The final MY 2014 adjusted, real world CO2 emissions rate for all new, personal vehicles is
366 g/mi, which is unchanged from MY 2013. The MY 2014 adjusted fuel economy is 24.3
mpg, which is also unchanged from MY 2013. New vehicle CO2 emission rates remain at
the lowest rate ever recorded in the Trends database, and likely the lowest rate of all-time.
New vehicle fuel economy is correspondingly at the highest level ever recorded, and likely
the highest of all-time.
The average MY 2014 adjusted fuel economy for cars remained at 27.9 mpg, while trucks
increased 0.6 mpg to a new record high adjusted truck fuel economy of 20.4 mpg. The
annual truck increase of 0.6 mpg was the second highest in the last 30 years.
The greatest value of the historical Trends database is the documentation of long-term
trends. CO2 emissions and fuel economy have improved in eight out of the last ten years.
Based on the final data through MY 2014, CO2 emissions have decreased by 95 g/mi, or
21%, since MY 2004, and fuel economy has increased by 5.0 mpg, or 26%, with an average
annual improvement of about 0.5 mpg per year.
Preliminary MY 2015 adjusted CO2 emissions are projected to be 360 g/mi and fuel
economy is projected to be 24.7 mpg, which would represent an improvement over MY
2014. These values are based on production estimates provided by automakers in early
2014 and are particularly uncertain given market conditions, including lower gasoline
prices. MY 2015 values will be finalized in next year's report.
Adjusted CO2 Emissions for MY 1975-20151
800-
r 700-
I 600
O 500
Adjusted Fuel Economy for MY 1975-20151
T3
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Light truck fuel economy reached a record high at the same
time as consumer demand for light trucks increased in MY 2014
Light truck fuel economy increased by 0.6 mpg in MY 2014 to a record 20.4 mpg. Light
trucks, which include pickups, minivans/vans, and truck SUVs (SUVs that are light trucks
for purposes of compliance with GHG emissions and fuel economy standards), accounted
for 41% of all light-duty vehicle production in MY 2014. This represents an increase of 5%
relative to MY 2013. MY 2014 truck share is the same as MY 2008, even though it has
fluctuated by 4% or more in five out of the six years. Truck share is still well below the
record 48% in MY 2004.
In MY 2014, the 5% increase in truck share offset all of the fleetwide benefits that would
otherwise have been achieved due to the 0.6 mpg increase in truck fuel economy, the
second highest truck fuel economy increase in the last 30 years. Truck share impacts many
important fleetwide metrics, since light trucks on average have higher CO2 emissions, lower
fuel economy, higher weight, and horsepower, and larger footprint than cars.
Of the five vehicle types in Trends, cars have the highest average adjusted fuel economy
of 28.7 mpg, followed by car SUVs (SUVs that must meet car GHG and fuel economy
standards) at 24.6 mpg.
The most inefficient vehicle types, truck SUVs and pickups, have been achieving the
greatest improvements in recent years. Truck SUVs and pickups had the highest annual
improvements from MY 2013 to MY 2014 of 0.8 and 0.6 mpg, respectively. Truck SUVs and
pickups have also achieved the largest absolute improvements in both CO2 emissions and
fuel consumption since MY 2010.
Production Share by Vehicle Type for MY 1975-2015
100% -
75% -
CD
ro
o
••5
T3
O
50% -
25% -
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Model Year
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• • Vehicle power and footprint are trending higher while weight is
U fairlyflat
Vehicle weight, power, and footprint are three important design parameters that help
determine a vehicle's CO2 emissions and fuel economy.
For nearly two decades through MY 2004, on a fleetwide basis, automotive technology
innovation was generally utilized to support vehicle attributes other than CO2 emissions
and fuel economy, such as weight, performance, utility, and other attributes. Beginning in
MY 2005, technology has generally been used to increase both fuel economy (which has
reduced CO2 emissions) and power, while keeping vehicle weight relatively constant.
The MY 2014 fleet averaged 4,060 pounds, an increase of 57 pounds (1.4%) compared to
MY 2013. This increase was primarily due to the 5% increase in truck share, as car weight
was 0.5% higher but truck weight was 0.7% lower. Average MY 2014 vehicle power was
230 horsepower, an increase of 4 horsepower (1.8%) from MY 2013, also driven primarily
by truck share as car power increased by 1 hp while truck power was unchanged. This
power level tied the all-time high reached in MY 2011. Average MY 2014 vehicle footprint
increased by 0.6 square feet (1.2%) to 49.7 square feet, the highest level since data began
in MY 2008, with both car and truck footprint rising about 0.5%. The average O-to-60 mph
acceleration time was essentially unchanged in MY 2014.
Preliminary MY 2015 values suggest that average weight will be relatively unchanged,
horsepower will increase to a record high, and footprint will reach the highest level since
we began reporting data in MY 2008. EPA will not have final MY 2015 data until next year's
report.
Change in Adjusted Fuel Economy, Weight, and Horsepower for MY 1975-2015
CD
CD
O
100%-
80% -
60% •
tf> 40% -
0
D)
™ 20% -
O
"c
g o% •
L_
0
Q-
-20% •
-40% -
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Model Year
ESS
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Many technologies continue to gain market share
Technological innovation is a major driving force in the industry. The majority of the carbon
and oil savings from current vehicles is due to new gasoline vehicle technologies. The figure
below shows changes in market share over the five-year period, from MY 2010 through MY
2015, for several key engine and transmission technologies for which Trends gathers data.
Two engine technologies first introduced over 20 years ago—variable valve timing (VVT)
and multi-valve engines—are both projected to be used on nearly all MY 2015 vehicles.
Gasoline direct injection (GDI) engines have increased market share by more than a factor
of 5 from 8% in MY 2010 to 46% in MY 2015. Turbochargers, which are often used in
conjunction with GDI, have also increased market share by more than a factor of five since
MY 2010.
Non-hybrid stop/start systems represent about 7% of the projected MY 2015 market.
Accounting for hybrids, stop/start systems are used on nearly 10% of MY 2015 vehicles.
Transmissions with 6 or more speeds and continuously variable transmissions (CVTs)
cumulatively accounted for 52% of vehicle production in MY 2010, but are projected to
achieve 94% market share in MY 2015. CVTs and advanced transmissions with 7 or more
speeds are projected to reach 37% market penetration in MY 2015.
Compared to the engine and transmission technologies discussed above, there has been
far less growth in the absolute production shares of cylinder deactivation (CD), hybrid and
diesel powertrains. See Highlight 5 for the increase in the number of individual hybrid and
diesel models, as well as for the number of alternative fuel vehicle models.
Technology Production Share for MY 2010 and MY 2015
100% -
75% -
CO
g 50% -
'•5
T3
O
25% -
0% -
MY 2010
MY 2015
WT Multi- GDI Turbo Cyl. Non- Hybrid Diesel Six Seven CVT
Valve Deact. Hybrid Speed Speed+
Stop/Start
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Consumers have an increasing number of
high fuel economy/low CO2 vehicle choices
In MY 2015, consumers have many more choices when shopping for vehicles with higher
fuel economy and lower tailpipe CO2 emissions compared to MY 2010. These choices
reflect both a more diverse range of technology packages on conventional gasoline vehicles
as well as more advanced technology and alternative fueled vehicles.
There are 20 MY 2015 pickup and minivan/van models for which at least one variant of the
model has a combined city/highway label fuel economy rating of 20 mpg or more, a small
increase over MY 2010. There are more than three times as many SUV models that achieve
25 mpg or more in MY 2015 than there were in MY 2010. The number of car models, where
at least one variant has a combined city/highway label fuel economy of at least 30 mpg,
more than doubled, and the number of car models at 40 mpg or more have increased from
4 to 26 (comprised of one conventional gasoline car with the rest being hybrid, electric, and
plug-in hybrid electric cars).
Vehicle Models Meeting Fuel Economy Thresholds in MY 2010 and MY 2015
70-
60-
Includes city/hwy combined
label MPG estimates for
gasoline, diesel and hybrid
vehicles, and MPGe estimates
forEVsandPHEVs
MY 2010
MY 2015
Pickups and
Minivans/Vans > 20 MPG
SUVs>25MPG
Cars > 30 MPG
Cars > 40 MPG
There are also many more advanced technology vehicle choices. In MY 2015, there are more
than twice as many diesel offerings and nine more hybrids than there were in MY 2010. There
are now over 20 electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, nearly all of which are new since
MY 2010.
Advanced Technology and Alternative Fuel Vehicle Models in MY 2010 and MY 2015
Diesel
Hybrid
PHEV
CNG
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Most manufacturers decreased CO2 emissions and improved
fuel economy in MY 2014
Eight of the twelve largest manufacturers shown below increased fuel economy and decreased CO2
emissions from MY 2013 to MY 2014, the last two years for which we have final data.
In MY 2014, Mazda had the lowest fleetwide adjusted composite CO2 emissions and highest adjusted
fuel economy performance, followed by a grouping of Subaru, Hyundai, Honda, and Nissan. Fiat-Chrysler
had the highest CO2 emissions and lowest fuel economy, followed by GM, Ford, and Mercedes. BMW
accomplished the biggest improvement in adjusted CO2 emissions performance from MY 2013 to MY
2014, followed by Mercedes and Mazda. BMW also had the biggest fuel economy improvement from
MY 2013 to MY 2014, followed by Mazda.
MY 2014 values for Hyundai and Kia are both about 1.5 mpg less than MY 2013 values. These two
manufacturers had very short MY 2014 production time frames, and therefore significantly reduced
production in MY 2014, for their highest fuel economy vehicles. Excluding these two manufacturers,
fleetwide fuel economy would have increased by 0.3 mpg and fleetwide CO2 emissions would have
decreased by 4 g/mi in MY 2014, rather than being flat.
Preliminary values suggest that most manufacturers will improve in MY 2015 as well, though these
projections are uncertain, and EPA will not have final MY 2015 data until next year's report.
MY 2013-2015 Manufacturer Adjusted Fuel Economy and Adjusted CO2 Emissions1-2
MY 2013 Final
MY 2014 Final
MY 2015 Preliminary
Manufacturer
Mazda
Subaru
Hyundai
Honda
Nissan
BMW
Kia
Toyota
Mercedes Benz
Ford
GM
Fiat-Chrysler
All
Adj. Fuel
Economy
(MPG)
28.1
26.7
29.1
27.4
26.6
24.5
27.4
25.2
22.3
22.3
22.1
20.9
24.3
CO2
(g/mi)
316
332
305
324
332
364
324
352
401
397
401
425
366
Adj. Fuel
Economy
(MPG)
29.4
27.6
27.5
27.3
27.0
26.4
25.9
25.6
23.2
22.8
22.8
20.8
24.3
Change from
MY 2013
(MPG)
+1.3
+0.9
-1.6
-0.1
+0.4
+1.9
-1.5
+0.4
+0.9
+0.5
+0.7
-0.1
0
CO2
(g/mi)
302
321
323
326
329
338
343
347
385
389
390
428
366
Change from
MY 2013
(g/mi)
-14
-11
+18
+2
-3
-26
+19
-5
-16
-8
-11
+3
0
Adj. Fuel
Economy
(MPG)
30.1
28.7
27.4
28.9
28.3
26.6
26.1
25.4
23.7
23.5
21.9
21.8
24.7
CO2
(g/mi)
295
309
325
307
312
335
341
350
375
378
406
409
360
1 Adjusted CO2 and fuel economy values reflect real world performance and are not comparable to automaker standards compli-
ance levels. Adjusted CO2 values are higher and adjusted fuel economy values are lower than compliance values.
2 Volkswagen is not included in this table due to an ongoing investigation. Based on the original compliance data, Volkswagen
values are 25.7 mpg and 353 g/mi CO 2 for MY2013, 26.2 mpg and 347 g/mi for MY2014, and 27.6 mpg and 329 g/mi for pre-
liminary MY 2015. These Volkswagen data are included in industry-wide or "AH" values. If corrective actions yield different fuel
economy and CO2 data, revised data will be used in future reports.
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Manufacturers are producing many vehicles today that can
meet future CO2 emissions targets
EPA evaluated MY 2015 vehicle emissions performance against future footprint-based
CO2 emissions regulatory targets to determine which current vehicles could meet or
exceed their future targets in MY 2018-2025. These comparisons were based on current
powertrain designs, assuming future improvements only in air conditioner refrigerants and
efficiency. EPA assumed air conditioning improvements since these are considered to be
among the most straightforward and least expensive technologies available to reduce CO2
and other greenhouse gas emissions.
It is important to note there are no CO2 emissions standards for individual vehicles. Overall
manufacturer compliance is determined based on the production volume-weighted
distribution of vehicles by each manufacturer, and how each model performs relative to
the footprint-based CO2emissions target curves. Vehicles with emissions levels below their
CO2 targets will generate credits, and those above their targets will generate debits.
The figure below shows that 26% of projected MY 2015 vehicle production already meets the
MY 2018 CO2 emissions targets, or can meet these targets with the addition of expected
air conditioning improvements. The bulk of this production share is accounted for by non-
hybrid gasoline vehicles, although other technologies are also represented.
Looking ahead, about 3% of projected MY 2015 production could meet the MY 2025
CO2 emissions targets. Vehicles meeting the MY 2025 CO2 targets are comprised solely
of hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and electric vehicles. Since the MY 2025 standards are a
decade away, there's considerable time for continued improvements in gasoline vehicle
technology.
MY 2015 Vehicle Production That Meets Future CO2 Emissions Targets
40% -
35% -
30% -
25% -
20% -
15%-
10%-
Fuel
CNG
EV
PHEV
HEV
Diesel
Gasoline
2018 2020 2022
Target Year
2025
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NOTICE: This technical report does not necessarily represent final EPA decisions or positions. It is
intended to present technical analysis of issues using data that are currently available. The purpose
in the release of such reports is to facilitate the exchange of technical information and to inform the
public of technical developments.
ESKHA
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