United Staffs Off •, f : i *ixsn Prygrsms EPA 520/6-78-005
Environmental PtotH turn June 1978
Agency \\> «• f'': ?'¦' "»i<)
Radiation
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This report has been reviewed by Che Office of Radiation Programs, U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and approved for publication. Approval
does not signify that the contents necessarily reflect the views and policies
of the EPA. Neither the United States nor the EPA makes any warranty, expressed
or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility of any information,
apparatus, product or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not
infringe privately owned rights.
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EPA 520/6-78-005
DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF A RISK
ASSESSMENT METHOD FOR RADIOACTIVE WASTE MANAGEMENT
Final Contract Report
Principal Investigator: Stanley E. Logan
Bureau of Engineering Research
The University of New Mexico
Albuquerque, New Mexico 87131
Volume II: Implementation for Terminal Storage in
Reference Repository and Other Applications
S. E. Logan, M. C. Berbano
July 1978
Prepared for
U. S, Environmental Protection .Agency
Under Contract No. 68-01-3256
Project Officer
Bruce J. Mann
Office of Radiation Programs-LVF
P. O. Box 15027
Las Vegas, Nevada 89114
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Intentionally Blank Page
ii
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FOREWORD
The EPA Office of Radiation Programs carries out a national program
to evaluate human exposures to radioactivity, and to promote the
development of controls to protect the environment and public health
from such radioactivity. An important part of this program consists of
the development of environmental protection criteria and standards for
radioactive waste management and disposal.
To sustain this effort, studies have been supported by EPA to
develop methods to evaluate the environmental adequacy of proposed
waste management alternatives, and this report describes one of the
first attempts to develop a comprehensive assessment model. It has
been funded at a very modest level. Much interest has been expressed
in this work, and through publication, EPA is making it available to
those involved with the development and use of models as decision-
making tools.
In order for models to be useful as tools for decision-making
concerning radioactive waste management alternatives, their
capabilities and limitations must be fully understood. It should be
noted that assessment models in themselves will not identify optimum
waste management choices. However, they can be used to compare well
defined alternatives. One of the necessary steps in any model
development and validation process is the comparison of results with
results obtained from the application of alternate models to test
cases. It is hoped that as other comprehensive assessment models become
available, comparison studies can be performed.
The methodology described herein has been applied, for model
illustration purposes, to a reference repository in a bedded salt
formation located in the southwestern United States. Any results
published in this report should not be interpreted as implying
conclusions concerning the suitability of the reference site or any
site-specific method/repository combination for the preparation and
disposal of radioactive waste.
Comments on this analysis as well as any new information would be
welcomed; they may be sent to the Director, Technology Assessment
Division (AW-459) Office of Radiation Programs, U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency, Washington, D.
W, D. Rowe, Ph. D.
Deputy Assistant Administrator
for Radiation Programs (AW-459)
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Intentionally Blank Page
iv
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ABSTRACT
A Radioactive Waste Management Systems Model, developed and imple-
mented by The University of New Mexico under contract with the U. S.
Environmental Protection Agency, is presented. The systems model and
associated computer code called AMRAW (Assessment Method for Radioactive
Waste), has two parts. The first part, AMRAW-A, consists of the Source
Term (radioactive inventory versus time), the Release Model, and the
Environmental Model. The Release Model considers various geologic and
man-caused events which are potential mechanisms for release of radio-
active material beyond the immediate environs of a repository or other
location; the risk analysis mode uses events distributed probabilistically
over time, and the consequence analysis mode uses discrete events occur-
ring at specified times. The Environmental Model includes: 1) the trans-
port to and accumulations at various receptors in the biosphere,
2) pathways from these environmental concentrations, and 3) resulting
radiation dose to man.
The second part of the systems model, AMRAW-B, is the Economic Model
which calculates health effects corresponding to the various organ dose
rates from AMRAW-A, collects these health effects in terms of economic
costs and attributes these costs to radionuclides, decay groups, and
elements initially in the waste inventory. Implementation, with calcur-
lated results, of AMRAW for Terminal Storage in a Bedded Salt Reference
Repository are presented. Preliminary demonstrations for the repository
operations phase of waste management and terminal storage in a shale
formation are described; possible applications to other radioactive and
nonradioactive hazardous materials are discussed. AMRAW uniquely links
all steps together in a continuous calculation sequence.
v
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Funding for this project was initially provided by the Energy/Environ-
ment Program, Office of Research and Development, and subsequent funding
by the Office of Radiation Programs, EPA.
Persons at the EPA, other federal agencies, national laboratories,
federal contractors, and foreign correspondents have provided helpful
suggestions during progress of the work or through review of draft reports.
These contributions are greatly appreciated though space does not permit
acknowledgement of each individual contribution.
Personnel at The University of New Mexico who participated and other
persons making direct contributions are named in the Acknowledgements
section of Volume I.
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VOLUME I
VOLUME II
VOLUME I I I
VOLUME IV
DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION
OF A RISK ASSESSMENT METHOD
FOR RADIOACTIVE WASTE MANAGEMENT
VOLUME LISTING
GENERIC DESCRIPTION OF AMRAW-A MODEL
IMPLEMENTATION FOR TERMINAL STORAGE IN
REFERENCE REPOSITORY AND OTHER 'APPLICATIONS
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS; DESCRIPTION AND IMPLEMENTATION
OF AMRAW-B MODEL
AMRAW COMPUTER CODE USERS' MANUAL
vii
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VOLUME II
Table of Contents
Page
Forward
Abstract v
Acknowledgements 1!."!!! V1*
List of Vol umes !!,..!!...*.."!!. vli
List of Figures xil* •
List of Tables !!!!!! | xvii
List of Abbreviations, Symbols
and Nomenclature wi-:
Chapter 1, Introduction, . 1
Chapter 2, Summary . 3
A, Part 1; Terminal Storage
in Bedded Salti. ¦ >.>•...¦.>¦......¦ • <¦. ¦ > < ¦ ¦ . 3
B. Part 2; Other Applications .................. 12
Chapter 3. Conclusions. 15
A. Part 1: Terminal Storage
in Bedded Salt 16
B. Part 2: Other Applications 21
Chapter 4. Recommendations.......... 23
Part 1; Implementation for Terminal Storage
in Bedded Salt Reference Repository
Chapter 5, Description of Reference
Repository Site. 31
A. Los Medanos Area 32
B. Geologic/Hydrologic Description 38
1. Structure and Tectonic Processes , , , , , ......... 39
2. Hydrology i)l
C. Study Region and Division into Zones 50
viii
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Table of Contents (continued)
Chapter 6. Implementation of
Model: Base Case.
i i i i i i i i i i
i a i i i
< i i i i i t i i • i i » i < » i t i t i i « a i
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.itftiifiitttt
iiitaiiiiiiii
A. Source Term (Inventory at Risk)
1, Repository Size, , .
2. Waste Inventory Input for AMRAW
B. Release Model.
1. Extended Fault Tree Analysis,
2. Leaching by Ground Water
C. Environmental Model
1. Transport to Environment
2. Environmental Pathways
D. Calculated Dose Rates .............
Chapter 7. Implementation of
Model: Other Cases..........
A. Sensitivity Analysis
1. AMRAW Sensitivity Analysis Cases
2. Ground Water Transport
B. Consequence Analysis..
Chapter 8. Evaluation of Results
A. Discussion of Base Case
1. Environmental Receptor Significance ,
2. Most Significant Radionuclides , ,, , ,
3. Completeness
4. Alternatives in Source Term , ,, , ,
B. Sensitivity Analysis Discussion .
¦ Page
.... 55
.... 56
,. 56
ItVlllfJIIllI
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i i I i I « i i f
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.. 63
.. 82
.. 89
• i C I I I I I i
I I 1 I 1 I I
.103
..119
it i i ¦ i
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...,143
... .l¥l
... ,1M
... .150
•ii.158
... .167
... .168
... .170
... .171
... .178
... .181
... ,m
IX
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Table of Contents (continued)
Page
1. Extension of AMRAW Sensitivity Results, ,,,,,,,,,,, 184
2. Chain Decay and Reconcentration
in Ground Water, , , , , 186
C. Consequence Analysis Discussion 190
1. Volcanic Explosion Release to Air, , , , , , , , 190
2. Leach Incident Release to Ground Water 193
Appendices for Part 1
A. Supplementary Hydrologic Descriptions 197
B. Repository Inventory Source Data ,,,,, 199
C. VOLCANISM , 200
D. Offset Faulting 205
E. Meteorite Impact
and Surface Erosion 210
F. Allocation of
Radioisotopes to Zones 213
G. Bioaccumulation Factors
in Edible Aquatic Organisms 215
H. Meat and Milk Production Rates 217
I. Supplementary Biology Discussion 221
J. Output Listing of
AMRAW Input for Base Case 225
K. Sample AMRAW Base Case
Dose Calculation Output 243
L. Summary Tables of Dose
Calculation Output, Base Case 259
M. Summary Tables of Dose
Calculation Output, Case #32 275
X
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Table of Contents (continued)
Page
N, Summary Tables of Dose
Calculation Output, Case #50, 288
Part 2: Other Applications of Model
Chapter 9, Application to Repository
Operations 301
A. Data for AMRAW Input. 302
B. Results 310
Chapter 10. Application to Ground
Surface Storage 314
Chapter 11. Preliminary Demonstration for
Another Geologic Setting 315
A. Selection and Description
of Geologic Basin 316
B. Data for AMRAW Input. 317
1. Model Repository317
2. Release Model Data . 317
3. Environmental Model Data , , , . , 322
C. Results and Comparison
with Bedded Salt. 325
Chapter 12. Applications to Other
Radioactive and Nonradioactive
Hazardous Materials 329 ¦
A, Other Radioactive Materials. 330
B. Nonradioactive Hazardous Materials............ 331
1. Inventory at Risk ,,,,,,,,,, . ....... 332
2, Activity Transfer Coefficient,,,,,,,,,,, m
xi
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Table of Contents (concluded)
Page
3. Release Model ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,334
4. Transport to Environment ,334
5. Environment-to-Man Pathways,, ,334
6. Economics Model, , , , , .339
7. Additional Discussion, , ,, , ,339
Appendices for Part 2
0, Sample AMRAW Repository Operations
Dose Calculation Output .,,, .341
P, Description of Denver Basin, .344
Q. Comments on Diffusivities and
Kd Values Based on Data from
the Oklo Natural Reactor. ,349
Glossary ¦¦¦••>¦••,.¦<.¦.,., .357
References.359
xii
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VOLUME II
List of Figures
EisiiRE Page
2-1 One branch of systems model 5
Part 1;
5-1 Location of Los Medanos area, Southeastern
New Mexico 33
5-2 Stratigraphic column of consolidated rocks
penetrated by site evaluation borings sunk
in Los Medanos area 34
5-3 Cross section of region 36
5-4 Deep deposits below Salado Formation 37
5-5 Water table map 45
5-6 Study region and zones 51
6-1 Fault tree for release to air 66
6-2 Fault tree for release to land surface 67
6-3 Fault tree branch for release to surface water.. 68
6-4 Fault tree for release to ground water 69
6-5 Fault tree component for volcanogenic transport 70
6-6 Fault tree component for offset faulting 71
6-7 Fault tree component for new ground water 72
6-8 Volcanic interception of waste repository 74
6-9 Interconnection of aquifers by offset faulting 76
6-10 Sample cut set for release to ground water 79
6-11 Calculated cumulative amount leached plotted
against time for Pb-210, Ra-226 and Th-229 87
6-12 Calculated incremental leach rate plotted against
time for Sr-90 and Cm-244 88
6-13 Ground water concentration as a function of time
for Tc-99 at a point 10 km along aquifer 104
xiii
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LIST OF FIGURES (continued)
Figure Page
6-14 Ground water concentration as a function of time
for Tc-99, 1-129, C-14, Np-237, and Np-239 at a
point 10 km along aquifer 105
6-15 Calculated total body dose rates for all nuclides.... 120
6-16 Average annual local dose to individual for each
organ in Zone 1 from all nuclides 123
6-17 Average annual nonspecific dose to population for
each organ from all nuclides 124
6-18 Average annual local total body dose to
individual in Zone 1 from fission products 125
6-19 Average annual local total body dose to
individual in Zone 1 from minor con-
tributing fission products 126
6-20 Average annual local total body dose to
individual in Zone 1 from thorium series 12 7
6-21 Average annual local total body dose to
individual in Zone 1 from neptunium series 128
6-22 Average annual local total body dose to
individual in Zone 1 from uranium series 129
6-23 Average annual local total body dose to
individual in Zone 1 from actinium series 130
6-24 Average annual nonspecific total body dose
from fission products 131
6-25 Average annual nonspecific total body dose from
minor contributing fission products 132
6-26 Average annual nonspecific total body dose
from thorium decay series 133
6-27 Average annual nonspecific total body dose
from neptunium decay series 134
6-28 Average annual nonspecific total body dose
from uranium decay series 135
6-29 Average annual nonspecific total body dose
from actinium decay series 136
xiv
-------
LIST OF FIGURES (continued)
EiSiiEE.
6-30 Average annual nonspecific total body dose
from major contributing nuclides 137
6-31 Average annual nonspecific total body dose
from minor contributing heavy metals 133
6-32 Average annual total body dose in Zone 2,
total all nuclides by receptor 139
6-33 Average annual total body dose in Zone 6,
total all nuclides by receptors 140
6-34 Average annual nonspecific total body dose,
total all nuclides by receptors 141
7-1 Components of average annual local total body
dose to individual, in Zone 2 from all nuclides
for violent volcanic and meteorite events 146
7-2 Components of average annual local total body
dose from all nuclides for violent volcanic
and meteorite evexits 147
7-3 Transport time versus at several velocities 153
7-4 Widths of concentration peaks for various
values of K, 157
a
7-5 Average annual local total body dose to individual
in Zone 2 from all nuclides following discrete
violent volcanic events occurring at
various times 160
7-6 Average annual nonspecific total body dose from all
nuclides following discrete violent volcanic event
occurring at various times 161
7-7 Average annual total body dose to individual in
Zone 2 from all nuclides following discrete
leach incident initiated at various times 16 3
7-8 Average annual nonspecific total body dose from
all nuclides following discrete leach incident
initiated at various times 164
8-1 Percentage of integrated air concentration
from resuspension 173
xv
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LIST OF FIGURES (continued)
Figure Pme
8-2 Concentration versus time at a distance of 10 km
following a leach incident commencing at 100 y 194
C-l Volcanic interception of waste repository, 201
D-l Number of earthquakes versus local magnitude. 207
E-l Probability function for exposure by
surface erosion 212
Part 2
9-1 Simplified fault trees for repository
operations demonstration 304
9-2 Fraction of total inventory in handling
at surface and underground 307
9-3 Repository operations: average annual local
total body dose to individual in Zones 1 and
2, and nonspecific dose, total all nuclides 313
11-1 Interconnection of upper and lower aquifer
bands in shale by offset faulting 32 3
11-2 Repository in shale compared to bedded salt;
average annual local total body dose to
individual in Zones 1 and 2 and nonspecific
dose, total all nuclides 327
12-1 One branch of systems model 333
12-2 Main environment-to-man pathways 335
xvi
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VOLUME II
List of Tables
Table Pme
part 1
Summary Of Rock Units of Latest Permian (Ochoan)
and Younger Age, Los Medanos Area, Eddy and Lea
Counties, New Mexico 35
5-2 Geologic Time Divisions ........ 38
5-3 High and Low Population Projections 1970 - 2020 52
5-4 Land Use Patterns for 1969 by Zone 53
6-1 Projected Nuclear Operating Capacity, GWe . 57
6-2 Projections of Accumulated Fuel Reprocessing
or Spent Fuel 58
6-3 Selected Significant Radionuclides 62
6-4 Summary of Release Scenarios
Included in Base Case .. 80
6-5 Estimated Values of Effective Diffusivity and
Dissolution Rate Constant 86
6-6 Average New Mexico Meteorological Data Input
to AIRDOS Code 90
6-7 ' Integrated Air Concentration and Air Deposition ' 92
6-8 • Dispersion Factors for Direct Releases to
Land and Surface Water 92
6-9 Input Data and Parameters for Ground
Water Transport Model 98
6-10 Estimated Distribution Coefficients for
Selected Radionuclides 99
6-11 Predicted Ground Water Concentration as a
Function of Time for Tc-99 at a Point 10 km
Along Aquifer 101
6-12 Predicted Ground Water Concentration as a Function
of Time for Np-237 at a Point 10 km Along Aquifer 101
6-13 Predicted Ground Water Concentration as a Function
of Time for C-14 at a Point 10 km Along Aquifer 102
xvii
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List of Tables (continued)
Table Page
6-14 Environmental Pathways for Los Medanos
Region 107
6-15 Factors Comprising Environment-to-Man
Coefficients 109
6-16 TERMOD Input Parameters Changed for
Desert Terrain Ill
6-17 Sample TERMOD Output for Sr-90 Ill
6-18 Fractions of Natural Carbon in Food and
Environmental Media 113
6-19 Summary of Food Production in Region 114
3
6-20 Water Intake Per Person, cm /y 116
6-21 Summary of Dose Modes and Dose
Conversion Factor Units 118
7-1 Summary of Sensitivity Analysis Cases for
Volcanism and Meteorite Impact 144
7-2 Summary of Integrated Total Body Dose for
Base Case and Release Scenario Components 149
7-3 Reduction of Total Body Dose Rate from
Increase in Environmental Decay Constant 151
7-4 Border Values of for Transport in
Ground Water 155
7-5 Effect of Distribution Coefficient on
Width of Concentration Peaks 156
7-6 Summary of Consequence Analysis Cases for
Volcanism and Leaching Incidents 159
7-7 Summary of Integrated Doses for Discrete
Events of volcanic Explosion Release to Air 159
7-8 Summary of Integrated Total Body Dose for
Discrete Leach Incident Events 166
8-1 Determination of Resuspension Contribution
to Integrated Air Concentration 172
xviii
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List of Tables (continued)
Table Page
8-2 Radionuclides Comprising Greatest Mass
at 100 Years 174
8-3 Most Significant Radionuclides at Several
Calculation Stages Versus Time for the Base
¦ Case and Increased Environmental Decay Constant 175
8-4 Summary of Radionuclides Among the
Five Most Significant at Some Time 179
8-5 Effect of Increasing Iodine Retained in
Waste from 0.1% to 100% 182
8-6 Summary of Release Parameters for
Volcanism and Meteorite Impact 185
8-7 Decay Series Relationships for
Radionuclides Studied 189
8-8 Most Significant Radionuclides Based Upon
Total Body Dose Rates, Versus Time for
Volcanic Explosion Release to Air 191
8-9 Comparison of Deposition from Volcanic
Explosion Through Repository and 1972
Accumulation from Fallout from Nuclear
Weapons Testing 192
8-10 Total Body Dose Rates Following
• Volcanic Explosion Through Repository 192
8-11 Most Significant Radionuclides Based Upon
Total Body Dose Rates Versus Time for Leach
Incident Releases to Ground Water 196
B-l Input Data for Cubic Spline Curve
Fitting Program 199
G-l Fresh Water Habitat 215
G-2 Salt Water Habitat ..... 216
H-l Meat Production 219
1-1 Species in Los Medafios Area Interacting with
the Human Population 22 3
xix
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List of Tables (continued)
Table Page
J-l Directory of AMRAW-A Output Tables 226
J-2 Output Listing of Base Case AMRAW Input 228
K-l Sample Output, Tc-99 244
K-2 Sample Output, Pb-210 249
K-3 Sample Output, Total All Nuclides 254
L-l Average Annual Local Dose to Individual,
MAN1L, in Zone 1 260
L-2 Average Annual Local Dose to Individual,
MAN1L, in Zone 8 265
L-3 Average Annual Nonspecific Dose to Population,
MANlN 270
M-l Average Annual Local Dose to Individual,
MAN1L, in Zone 1 276
M-2 Average Annual Local Dose to Individual,
MAN1L, in Zone 8 230
M-3 Average Annual Nonspecific Dose to Population,
MANlN 284
N-l Average Annual Local Dose to Individual,
MAN1L, in Zone 2 289
N-2 Average Annual Local Dose to Individual,
MAN1L, in Zone 8 292
N-3 Average Annual Nonspecific Dose to Population,
MANlN 295
Part 2
9-1 Repository Inventory Accumulation
and Assumed Surface and Underground
Handling Quantities 30g
9-2 Summary of Demonstration Release Scenarios
for Repository Operations 309
9-3 Most Significant Radionuclides Versus
Time Based Upon Total Body Dose for
Repository Operations 312
xx
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List of Tables (concluded)
Table —
11-1 Summary of Release Scenarios for
Repository in Shale 318
11-2 Ratios of Release Parameters for
Shale to Those for Bedded Salt 326
12-1 Summary of Hazard Evaluation Criteria 338
0-1 Average Annual Local Dose to Individual 342
0-2 Average Annual Nonspecific Dose to Population 343
Q-l Estimates of Diffusivities 355
Q-2 Estimated K Values 355
xxi
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VOLUME II
•Chapter 1
AMRAW
AMRAW-A
AMRAW-B
Chapter 2,
Kd
Chapter 5
i
L
Q
T
Chapter 6
Section A.
Section B.
A
o
V
e
DC1
F
s
k
L
P
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS, SYMBOLS
AND NOMENCLATURE
(Assessment Method for Radioactive Waste) Assessment
Model and associated computer code
That portion of AMRAW which includes Source Terms,
Release Model and Environmental Model
The economic part of AMRAW
3, AND 4
Distribution coefficient—a measure of retention of
species on porous media
Hydraulic gradient, in feet per feet
Width of aquifer
Discharge, in cubic feet per day
Transmissivity in square feet per day
None
Initial total radioactivity of species subject to
leaching
Effective diffusivity for the species
Variable name in AMRAW for V
e
Total exposed area of specimen
Dissolution rate constant
I a
L n
m
xxii
-------
Overall probability for release to ground water
Radius of diffusing particle in cm
Subprogram in FAULT which handles leaching into ground
water
Specific activity factor
Time
Specimen volume
Transformation variable used is solution of diffusion
equation
Longitudinal dispersivitv
Transverse dispersivity
Time transfer coefficient, incorporating radioactive
and environmental decay
Max fraction of inventory {or value of G ) which can
be transferred (program variable name)
Transfer rate constant used in calculating G (program
variable name)
Air dispersion code from ORNL
Zone land surface area
Zone surface water area
Concentration or dilution to the consumed or exposed
quantity
Concentration of the dissolved species, also transfer
coefficient which transforms environmental concentra-
tion in a receptor to corresponding dose commitment rate
to a specified organ
(In AMRAW) Effective decay factor between two times
Time interval over which environmental decay constant
is applied; also, time increment for which transfer is
calculated ; same as At (program variable name)
(In AMRAW) Dispersion parameter (land surface area or
water volume)
xxiii
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DRC
E
in
EDC
F
m
G
m
GNDDIS
GNDEP
JP= 1, 2, 3 or 4
Estimated dissolution rate constant {program variable
name)
(ADJl in AMRAW) Max fraction of inventory (or value of
G } which can be transferred
m
Environmental Decay Constant
(ADJ2 in AMRAW) Transfer rate constant
(ADJ in AMRAW) Fraction of inventory transferred from
one receptor pool to another pool per unit time
Ground dispersion, related to ground water velocity
and aquifer dimensions (program variable name)
(In AMRAW) Non-accumulating matrix which retains inte-
grated deposition for current time increment for use
in calculating transfer to terrestrial food products
Program variable to denote environmental receptor:
1 - Air, 2 - Land Surface, 3 - Surface Water, 4 -
Ground Water
Distribution coefficient—a measure of retention of
species on porous medium
M ' Ratio of amount of particular radionuclide released
by leaching during a release time interval to the
thickness of aquifer in which released
r Radial distance from the center of Zone 1
R, Retardation factor
a
R2TOT (In AMRAW) Accumulated net total concentration in
yCi per ctn^ or cm^ by zone and Environmental Input
Receptor
RKD Program variable name for K,, distribution coefficient
a
t Time in the environment, d
At (DELTE in AMRAW) Time interval over which environmental
decay constant is applied; also, time increment for
which transfer is calculated
Pore (or seepage) velocity
Amount of exposure or consumption per year
x Distance along aquifer to point of usage or discharge, m
v
P
VQLINT
xxiv
-------
a
ZOKALQ
ZONDEK
Transverse distance from plume centerline, m
Effective plume width, m
Transverse distance to average concentration, m
Aquifer thickness, m
Dispersion allocation factor for air concentration
Dispersion allocation factor for ground deposition
Porosity
Bulk density of porous medium
Chapter 7
Section A.
DECFAC
EDC
K,
border
Ra
fct
T
U
v, v£
X
£
Proportionality constant used in calculation of
(K )
d border
Effective decay factor between two times (program
variable name)
Environmental Decay Constant
Distribution coefficient—a measure of retention of
species on porous medium
For selected assessment time period, distance to ground
water discharge and ground water velocity, value of
K
-------
Section B.
EDC
Environmental decay constant
Distribution coefficient
Chapter 8
Section A.
EDC
K.
Environmental decay constant
Distribution coefficient
Section B.
hi
DECFAC
Ka
PROB
Release fraction to a given input receptor
Effective decay factor between two times (program
variable name)
Same as above
Probability of occurrence
Section C.
K,
APPENDIX C
a (r)
P
Same as above
APPENDIX A, B None
Area of intersection
Volcanism probability
Distance between and
Repository radius with center at C
Volcano effect radius with center at C,
APPENDIX D
A factor used in relating magnitude of shocks to
number, function of area and time
A factor used in relating magnitude of shocks to
number; for New Mexico b 3 1.0
xxvi
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o
L
"l
K
APPENDIX E
D
k
N
P
APPENDIX F
dA
r
r
0
Z.
1
ZONALO
APPENDIX J
AOJl
AD J 2
AREAW
BIOFAC
DC1
Maximum displacement
Length of faulting
Local magnitude of largest earthquake
Earthquake shock event
Diameter of crater
Empirical constant in Har-tman's relationship
Number of craters with diameter greater than D
Probability of a direct strike by meteorite with
enough energy to exhume material to given depth
Differential area
Radial distance to center of Zone 1
Radius of Zone 1
Fraction of total amount released which is deposited
in Zone i
Zone allocation factor (program variable name)
Maximum fraction of inventory (or value of Gm) which
can be transferred from one receptor pool to another
per unit time (AMRAW variable name)
Transfer rate constant used in calculating G (AMRAW
variable name)
Zone Surface water area
Concentration or dilution to the consumed or exposed
quantity
AMRAW variable name used to store values of V , effec-
£
tive diffusivity
xxvii
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DISPN
(AMRAW variable name) Dispersion parameter (land sur-
face area or water volume)
DOSFAC
Dose rate conversion per unit of exposure or consump-
tion for the specified organ
DRC
Dissolution rate constant (AMRAW variable name for k)
EDC
MAN1L
Environmental decay constant
Average annual local dose to individual by nuclide
(AMRAW variable name)
MAN IN
Average annual nonspecific dose by nuclide to popu-
lation (AMRAW variable name)
MAN2L
Average annual local dose to individual, all nuclides,
all receptors (AMRAW variable name)
MAN2N
Average annual nonspecific dose to individual, all
nuclides, all receptors (AMRAW variable name)
MAN2NF
Average annual nonspecific dose to individual, all
nuclides, for receptor JF = 1 to 4 (AMRAW variable name)
RE LOUT
Release fraction by each cut set for each nuclide
(AMRAW variable name)
RlJ
Release increment to Preliminary Environment Input
Receptor from all release events by nuclide (AMRAW
variable name)
R2T0T
(In AMRAW) Accumulated net total concentration in pCi
per cm^ or cm^ by zone and Environment Input Receptor
RKD
Distribution coefficient, same as (AMRAW variable
name)
VOLINT
Amount of exposure or consumption per year (AMRAW
variable name)
ZONALO
Dispersion allocation factor for air concentration
(AMRAW variable name)
ZONDEP
APPENDIX K
Dispersion allocation factor for ground deposition
(AMRAW variable name)
JF= 1, 2, 3, 4
Preliminary Environmental Input Receptors (1 - Air,
2 - Ground Surface, 3 - Surface Water, 4 - Ground
Water)
xxviii
-------
K&NlL
wsiu
wa2b
HAN2LF
HMJ2N
Man2NF
HBLOOT
RlJ
R2TOT
Same as Appendix J
APPENDIX L M/ and N
MAN1L )
> Same as Appendix J
MAN1N )
Chapter 9
A(t) Transfer coefficient to a given preliminary environmental
input receptor
Ai Fraction of effected inventory transferred if release
occurs
BSC Constants used in equation for P (t)
CFAI Input to AMRAW as number of canisters exposed to leach
incident (AMRAW variable name)
DECFAC (In AMRAW) Effective decay factor between two times
DEPGND Deposition on land surface of zone (AMRAW variable name)
DEPWTR Deposition on water surface of zone (AMRAW variable name)
FAULT AMRAW subroutine for Release Model calculations
IFLAG AMRAW flag which designates probability function type
*TRE AMRAW subscript to designate time at end of release
ITRS AMRAW subscript to designate time at start of release
IW Computer program flag to denote assessment branch
p(t) Annual probability of release
pn(t) Component factor n, of release probability
xxix
-------
Chapter 9 cont'd
PROBB
TP
ZONALO
AMRAW variable name for initial value of probability-
factor value
Time at which P(t) commences change or when discrete event
occurs in using delta function
AMRAW variable name for t
P
Zone allotment for direct dispersion to land surface
Chapter 10
None
Chapter 11
K,
Same as previously defined. Chapter 4
Repository radius with center at
Volcano effect radius with center at C
Chapter 12
AMRAW-A
AMRAW-B
BIOFAC
V
e
DOSFAC
Kd
LC
50
That portion of AMRAW which includes Source Terms, Release
Model, and Environmental Model
The Economic Model part of AMRAW
Concentration or dilution to the consumed or exposed
quantity
Transfer coefficient for human dose commitment
Diffusivity coefficient
Dose rate conversion per unit of exposure or consumption
for the specified organ
Dissolution rate constant
Distribution coefficient
That concentration of a toxic material which, over a
given period of time, is likely to kill one-half the
test animal species
XXX
-------
Chapter 12 cont'd
LD
50
VOLINT
That dose likely to kill one-half of a group of animals
within a specified period of time
Amount of exposure or consumption per year
Appendix 0
JF = 1 to 4
MAN2L
MAN2LF
MAN2N
MAN2NF
Environmental Input Receptor Identification
Average annual local dose to individual, all nuclides,
all receptors (AMRAW variable name)
Average annual local dose to individual, all nuclides,
for receptor JF = 1 to 4 (AMRAW variable name)
Average annual nonspecific dose to individual, all
nuclides, all receptors (AMRAW variable name)
Average annual nonspecific dose to individual, all
nuclides, for receptor JF = 1 to 4 (AMRAW variable name)
Appendix P
None
Appendix Q
K
K
d
As previously defined in Chapter 12
Stokes-Einstein constant
Distribution coefficient
Radius of diffusing particle
Ionic charge
Solvent viscosity at absolute temperature T °K
xxx i
-------
Chapter 1
INTRODUCTION
The Radioactive Waste Management Systems Model and associated com-
puter code, AMRAW, developed at The University of New Mexico (UNM),
consists of two parts which are run separately: 1) AMRAW-A consists of
the Source Term, Release Model, and Environmental Model, and 2) AMRAW-B
is the Economic Model. Volume I gives the generic description of the
AMRAW-A model. The model applies to any of the several phases in the
radioactive waste management sequence (Fig. 4-1 in Vol. I), although
most of the effort during this study, has been related to the terminal
storage (disposal) phase.
As part of the generic model development work, an application to
terminal storage in a bedded salt model repository has been completed.
The development of an application in parallel with development of the
model helped in: 1) identifying model provisions necessary to accommo-
date real situations, 2) providing a demonstration of the procedure for
applying the model to any site, 3) provided some useful output for waste
management planning, and 4) accumulated a data bank which includes site-
specific and non site-specific components.
Calculated results from the demonstration application to a specific
site are useful for several purposes including the following:
1) Determine behavior at each stage through the model: calculated
releases from the repository, environmental concentrations, and
dose equivalent rates to the population.
2) Determine relative importance of each environmental input recep-
tor: air, land surface, surface water, and ground water.
3) Select the most significant radionuclides under various circum-
stances.
4) Determine effects of variations in parameters which have large
uncertainties.
5) Study the consequences of various low-probability potential
release scenarios.
-------
Part 1 of this volume presents the application of AMRAW-A to terminal
storage in a bedded salt model repository. The site chosen for this
initial application is the Los Medanos area in southeastern New Mexico,
an area under study for potential installation of a Waste Isolation Pilot
Plant [Wr77]. The proposed pilot plant is for DOE trans-uranium waste
and experimental retrievable emplacement of some high-level waste. There
are no plans at the present time to expand this facility into a full
scale high-level waste repository but the application of AMRAW reported
here assumes it is a full scale repository for study purposes. A base
case which simultaneously considers several release scenarios is first
described in detail along with calculated results. This is followed
by several series of other cases which examine component release sce-
narios and variations of selected parameters for sensitivity and conse-
quence analysis purposes. The population dose calculations output from
AMRAW-A become input data for the AMBAW-B Economic Model, detailed in
Vol. III.
Part 2 of this volume presents additional applications of AMRAW-A.
First, the model is applied to repository operations, the phase during
which a repository is open and receiving waste shipments. Then, a dis-
cussion of application to ground surface storage is presented. A pre-
liminary demonstration for another geologic setting (Denver Basin shales)
is given to illustrate generic capabilities of the model. Finally,
results of a feasibility study are presented which investigated the appli-
cability of AMRAW to other than high-level radioactive wastes and to
nonradioactive hazardous materials.
2
-------
Chapter 2
SUMMARY
The generic description of AMRAW-A is presented in Vol. I. Imple-
mentation of the model and computer code for terminal storage in a
bedded salt reference repository is presented in Part 1 of this volume.
The model is not limited to the application described here; demonstration
applications to other phases of the radioactive waste management sequence,
and to another geologic setting are given in Part 2 of this volume.
A. PART 1: TERMINAL STORAGE IN BEDDED SALT
The site chosen for this initial application of AMRAW is the Los
Medanos area in southeastern New Mexico. This area is in a stable
region, has thick deposits of nearly horizontal bedded salt (Salado
Formation), and is under study for potential installation of a Waste
Isolation Pilot Plant [Wr77], The proposed pilot plant is for DOE
trans-uranium waste and experimental retrievable emplacement of some
high-level waste. There are no plans at the present time to expand
this facility into a full scale high-level waste repository. The appli-
cation of AMRAW reported here assumes for study purposes that there is
only one repository for commercial high-level waste and that it is
located at Los Medanos. Concentration of the total waste inventory at
one site represents a conservative case for demonstration of the assess-
ment methodology; division of the total inventory into several different
repositories reduces the risk associated with any one site.
The site and surrounding region is characterized for two categories
of information: 1) geologic and hydrologic features of the area pro-
vides a base for evaluation of potential release events, and 2) demo-
graphic and agricultural data within a radius of approximately 150 km «
from the site provides for calculation of consequences of any release.
The study region is divided into 8 zones along county boundaries with
one or more counties in each zone. Exceptions are Zone 1 which is
defined as a 5 km radius area enclosing the site, and Zone 8 which is
defined as a corridor through Eddy County along the Pecos River having
irrigated land. Zone 2 is the balance of Eddy County after Zones 1 and
8 are excluded.
3
-------
The base case (see Chap. 6) is the primary vehicle used here for im-
plementing the model. Other cases, summarized later for sensitivity conse-
quence analyses draw from the base case input data with appropriate
variations. The base case, run in the probabilistic mode, represents
operation in a risk mode. Risk is defined as the product of probability
of occurrence of an event and the consequence of the event if it occurs.
Implementation for the base case involves defining and preparing input
data used in the sequence of component models within AMRAW-A: Source
Term (Inventory at Risk), Release Model, and Environmental Model (includ-
ing the Transport to Environment and Environment-to-Man Pathways parts).
Figure 2-1 illustrates one branch of the systems model, applied here
to the terminal storage phase of waste management.
A first step in implementing the model is to select the number of
time increments and the duration of each. Here, 50 increments are used
over a total time range of 10^ y; this permits each output table to be
complete on one page of computer printout. The first six time incre-
ments (5 y each) from zero reference time through the increment ending
at 30 y cover the repository operations phase. The next increment, of
10 y duration ending at 40 y reference time, starts the terminal storage
phase. The size of the time increments is increased in steps at later
times to reduce computer requirements. Also selected initially are the
radionuclides to be evaluated (25 here) , the geographic zones (8 here) ,
and the human organs for which dose is to be calculated (8 here, includ-
ing total body),
Source Term data is prepared externally to AMRAW. 'this is a matrix
of grams of inventory of each selected radionuclide at each of the
specified times. For this application, an underground repository area
2
is assumed to be 10 km which provides for accumulation of waste from
reprocessing of 187,000 metric tons of spent fuel. This quantity applies
to a 30 y accumulation for the moderately low growth case [Bk76, ERDA76]
or slightly less than a 40 y accumulation for the low growth case
[Ax77]. One hundred, eighty-seven thousand metric tons of fuel at a burnup
of 33,000 megawatt-days (thermal) per metric ton and a thermal efficiency
13
of 0.325 represent electrical energy generation of 5500 GW-y or 4.8 x 10
kw-hr. This data reflects a projection of installed nuclear capacity and
4
-------
INVENTORY AT RISK
ACTIVITY TRANSFER COEFFICIENT
RELEASE MODEL
AMRAW-A
ENVIRONMENTAL MODEL
TRANSPORT TO ENVIRONMENT
ENVIRONMENT-TO-MAN PATHWAYS
ECONOMIC MODEL
HEALTH EFFECTS
I
DAMAGE CALCULATIONS
DAMAGES
W-B
Figure 2-1. One branch of systems model,
5
-------
reactor types, the step-by-step accumulation during the repository
operations phase, simple decay, and chain decay, including ingrowth of
daughters. The repository operations phase is illustrated by an appli-
cation of AMRAW described in Part 2 of this volume.
The base case is run in the probabilistic mode in which several
types of geologic disturbance events are considered: severe earth-
quake, voleanism, meteorite impact, and surface erosion. Data input for
the Release Models is: estimated probabilities for each event occur-
rence, and the estimated fraction of Source Term inventory which is
released by the occurrence of each event. For a leach incident associ-
ated with severe earthquake, data is furnished for calculation within
AMRAW of quantities leached. An extended fault tree analysis {"extended"
refers to a time-dependent probability capability) is used to represent
the various geologic and man-caused events which may combine in various
ways and result in release of radioactive material from a waste reposi-
tory. Ten release scenarios are considered by the base case. While
AMRAW provides for time-varying probabilities and/or release fractions,
available geologic data at this time limit input to annual probabilities
which are constant with time.
The most likely geologic event for disturbance of the repository
assumed for this assessment demonstration appears to be offset faulting
which could interconnect aquifers above and below the bedded salt forma-
tion. The annual probability of such faulting is estimated to be 1.4 x
-7
10 . Subsequent slow leaching and retardation in ground water flow,
calculated with presently available hydrologic data, minimize the conse-
quences of this event over most of the total time range. This event
contributes 9% of the total body dose in Zone 2 and 46% of nonspecific
dose, integrated over 700,000 y. A volcanic explosion, assumed to trans-
port 50% of the intercepted waste inventory into the air but estimated to
have an extremely low probability for occurring within a repository zone
-12
(2.4 x 10 per year), and volcanogenic transport to the ground surface
— 1 ?
(8.1 x 10 per year) are the events which make the major contributions
to the results calculated on a probabilistic basis until 700,000 y. At
later times, breakthrough of Np moves ground water into a position of
dominance and the faulting event then contributes 99% of the total body
"ase, and 53% of the nonspecific dose when integrated over the full
6
-------
106 yi due to consequences after 700,000 y. These calculations conserva-
tively assumed a ground water velocity six times the estimated seepage
velocityi a somewhat less conservative adjustment would defer Up break-
through and cancel out the major contributions from ground water after
700>000 y. While the method assigns some risk from volcanic explosion, it
should be noted that the low probability means there is only one chance in
400,000 that such a volcanic event would expel material at any time
during a one million year storage period. It should be noted that un-
certainty in geologic event predictions does not justify the accuracy
implied by two significant figures, but use of two figures helps to
clarify the methods used in obtaining the values. In AMRAW, all input
data, calculations, and output are standardized to three significant
figures.
The first part of the Environmental Model handles Transport to
Environment. Input factors expressing average air concentration and
ground deposition in each zone per unit release to air were prepared
with' output from the AIRDOS-II air dispersion code [Mo75, Mo77a, Mo77b].
Average New Mexico meteorological data, but with directionally uniform
wind,: was-used. Models for dispersion of material transported directly
to land surface (and surface water), including ballistic trajectory dis-
tributions, are not well developed. A simple dispersion model (see
Appendix P) was used for direct transport in the absence of a more de-
tailed model. The retarded transport of radionuclides in ground water
is .handled by factors calculated within AMRAW using a simplified
ground water transport routine. The method handles the effects of
chain decay in an approximate but conservative manner. All of the
-ground water which flows slowly across and above the repository
in the Rustler Formation discharges to the surface southwest of the
repository by the time it reaches the vicinity of the Pecos River, A
%
matrix*of net environmental input receptor concentrations of each nuclide
for. each' receptor (air, land surface, surface water, and ground water)
in each zone, and at each time is calculated. This considers the dis-
persion discussed above, adjustment for transfers among the receptors,
and environmental and physical decay (and buildup). Interreceptor
adjustment for this application includes resuspension from land surface
7
-------
to air, transfer of ground water by discharge to surface water, and
transfer of surface water in Zone 8 as irrigation water to land sur-
face. Resuspension is found to comprise most of the average air con-
centration, dominating over the average concentration component from
passage of contaminated air plumes. A small token value of environmental
decay constant, representing an "environmental half-life" of 30,000 y
is used for surface land and water. This appears to be an unreasonably
conservative assumption and leads to overstating the persistence of
dispersed radionuclides and resulting dose rates. However, data for
defining more correct values for the environmental decay constant are
sparse. Radiodecay factors are generated within AMRAW as needed using
the Source Term data. This provides a simple method for handling
complex chain decay members.
The last part of the Environmental Model is the Environment-to-Man
Pathways Model which handles pathway analysis. The main pathways con-
sidered are: 1) air: immersion and inhalation, 2) land surface: direct
exposure and ingestion of terrestrial foods, 3) surface water: submer-
sion and ingestion, and 4) ground water: ingestion. Subpaths for
ingestion from water consider aquatic foods, drinking water, and contam-
ination components in meat and milk from animal ingestion of water.
Subpaths for ingestion of terrestrial foods consider above surface crops ,
and contamination of meat and milk. Unique calculation techniques used
in AMRAW, and reflected by the input data, consider potential contamina-
tion of meat during feeding within a contaminated region but excludes
weight added at feed lots after export from the region. On the other
hand, calculation of meat contamination beyond the region boundaries
due to export of hay from the region is included. Also, meat and milk
contamination through drinking water is usually neglected in environ-
mental impact calculations but this pathway is included in the AMRAW
calculations. Input data for the pathways and subpaths is defined for
the three applicable factors used in this part of the Environmental
Model: 1} the biofactor, which accounts for concentrations in foods,
2) consumption, exposure or food production rates, and 3) equivalent
dose conversion factors. Integrated concentrations in terrestrial foods
following a unit deposition on land surface (i.e. the biofactor) are
8
-------
determined for this application by use of the TEFMOD terrestrial code
[KJ176 ].
The calculated dose rates are the final product of AMRAW-A. The
term "dose" wherever used in this report refers to committed dose equi-
valent. Dose rates to 8 organs are calculated: total body, G.I- tract,
gonads, liver, lungs, bone marrow, bone, and thyroid. Local dose rates
in each geographic zone are dose rates to an individual in the zone
from local exposure through immersion in air, inhalation, direct expo-
sure to land surface, submersion in water and ingestion of drinking
water. As the bulk of agricultural products are exported from the
region, dose rates from associated pathways are designated as nonspe-
cific dose rates and represent dose to an undefined population. The
results from the base case do not represent predictions of environmental
concentrations and population doses,as the geologic events have very low
«
probabilities for occurrence and are therefore unlikely to occur during
the one million year time period studied. Allowing the events to par-
tially "occur" via the probabilistic method provides a basis for risk
comparisons between alternate repository sites, types of geologic for-
mations, fuel cycles and waste forms. The present status of available
geologic data results in large uncertainties in estimates of probabil-
ities which affects the calculated risk, but doesn't preclude relative
evaluation of various management options. The calculated dose rates,
used as a representation of risk, are very low. For example, the highest
calculated dose rates are obtained for Zone 1 (local dose) which is the
immediate area around the site. The average total body dose rate for
this zone is 0.006 mrem/y. The corresponding average nonspecific dose
rate (from agricultural products from all zones in the region) is 0.7
jnan-retn/y. The latter means a maximum individual dose rate from the
nonspecific category of approximately 7 x 10 ^ mrem/y as the exported
agricultural products represent the food for close to one million per-
sons. Average calculated dose rates to individuals become much less
When dilution by food from noncontaminated sources is considered.
Following the base case, results from a series of cases comprising
a sensitivity analysis are presented. Each of these cases considers
one or a combination of the release scenarios from the base case.
9
-------
•3 4 5
at 10', 10 , and 10 y reference times are examined. With the conser-
vative assumptions that one-half of the repository inventory intersected
by- the volcano becomes expelled and is not reburied, it is found that
if this event occurred, the local dose rate in Zone 2, close to the
repository site, becomes far greater than regulatory limits but is not
at a lethal level. In Zone 1, containing the repository site, the
indicated dose rate is too high for continuous residence, if in fact
anyone would care to live there during or shortly after a volcanic
eruption. These calculations assume there is no cleanup nor disruption
of normal agricultural or residency patterns. Another series of cases
examines a leach incident associated with offset faulting from a severe
2 3 4
earthquake, commencing at times of 10 , 10 , and 10 y. For the sorp-
tion properties used, only C-14, Tc-99, 1-129, and Np-237 appear at a
£
distance of 10 km (Zone 2) within 10 y. The corresponding dose rates
4
are low. After 10 y, local total body dose rates in Zone 2 reach only
-2 5
7 x 10 mrem/y, primarily from Tc-99, and drop off after 10 y. Break-
through of Np, commencing at 700,000 y, produces an increase reaching
6
660 mrem/y at 10 y. The corresponding nonspecific dose rates reach 218
4 5
man-rem/y in the 10 - 10 y time frame, drop off and then reach 788
man-rem/y by 10 y due to Hp. Again, as the agricultural products associ-
ated with the nonspecific dose represent the food for close to one million
persons, the maximum individual dose rate from the nonspecific category
is limited to only 0.8 mrem/y. It should be remembered that these
results are based upon the severe earthquake occurring, the resulting
fracture remaining open to permit continuous release by leaching, and a
ground water velocity greater than the estimated value.
A more severe faulting and leach incident case with occurrence at
100 y assumes all values of are decreased by a factor of 20 from the
nominal values, in addition to the increased ground water velocity, to
demonstrate sensitivity to K, values. Decreasing K, induces Cs-135,
a d
Ra-225 and Ra-226 (K^ now 3.5) to appear with the maximum concentration
of Ra-2 26 reached at about 700,000 y. With this large reduction in
assumed sorption effectiveness, the total body dose rate, totaled for all
4
nuclides, reaches a maximum of 4.7 x 10 mrem/y in Zone 2 after 700,000 y
7 6
and the nonspecific dose rate reaches 1.5 x 10 man-rem/y after 10 y.
These results indicate the importance of obtaining site-specific K_ data
d
10
-------
during the first 700,000 y, the total from all volcanism events contri-
butes 90% of the integrated total body dose in Zone 2 and 54% of the
integrated nonspecific dose; faulting and leaching to ground water con-
tribute 9% and 46% respectively; meteorite impact contributes the remain-
ing less than 1%. After 700,000 y, as mentioned earlier, breakthrough of
Np at an average distance of 10 km in Zone 2 greatly increases the ground
water contribution such that it accounts for 99% of the local dose in
s
Zona 2 and 53% of the nonspecific dose when integrated over the full 10
y. In other zones net downflow from the repository, a ground water com-
ponent is not involved. Surface erosion does not contribute to releases
within the 10^ y period. Over most of the time range, the most signifi-
cant environmental receptor (to which initial releases occur) is surface
water when it is a source of drinking water, followed in turn by land
surface and air. At later times, ground water becomes the most significan
receptor but this is primarily due to transfers to surface water. Dose
from direct exposure to land surface is a minor component of the total
and the dose from immersion in water is negligible due to the short
esjqpoeUre times. Increase of the environmental decay constant by two
orders of magnitude resulted in reduction of dose rates by less than
one order of magnitude.
Additional sensitivity analysis was performed for ground water
transport Using auxiliary computer programs instead of the full AMRAW
code. It is shown that there are border values of the important sorp-
tion- parameter , (distribution coefficient), for a given combination
of ground water velocity, distance to a point of usage, and time period
assessed. The border value represents sorption behavior which retards
the radionuclide migration sufficiently that it does not appear within
the time period considered. Above the border value, precise values need
not be determined. For a ground water velocity of 4 x 10 m/d, and a
l-
distance of 10 km, a value of only 10 retards the peak concentration
travel time to > lo^ y. Also, for slightly greater than zero, the
widths of concentration versus time peaks from a pulse release broaden
considerably.
A series of cases for discrete events occurring at various times
comprises a consequence analysis. Volcanic explosion releases to air
11
-------
but should not be considered to be expected dose rates.
B. PART 2: OTHER APPLICATIONS
The implementation for the terminal storage phase in bedded salt
considers a reference repository in the Los Medaflos area of southeastern
New Mexico, containing an inventory of high-level radioactive waste from
reprocessing of 187,000 KT of spent fuel. Repository operations covers
the approximately 30 y period during which the waste inventory is accumu-
lated. Surface operations include receival, brief interim storage and
associated handling. Underground operations include lowering canister
via a mine hoist, transport through mine drifts and emplacement of canis-
ters in drilled holes in the formation. Because of the relatively short
time period for this waste management phase, slow geologic processes and
very low probability events need not be included in the Release Model.
For this simplified demonstration, a number of basic disruptive
events are lumped together in the Release Model as "major events" and
"minor events" for both surface and underground operations, and preli-
minary estimates of occurrence probabilities are made. The net inven-
tory quantity of each radionuclide at each time of interest during the
operations period accumulation is handled by the same input matrix used
for the subsequent terminal storage phase. During repository operations
however, the total accumulation at any time is generally not exposed to
each release scenario. That is, the quantity at risk for each potential
handling accident is some fraction of the total accumulated inventory.
This is handled in AMRAW by using one of the time-dependent factors which
comprise the release probability to express the time-dependent fraction
of inventory subject to the given release scenario.
Results obtained for repository operations indicate maximum calcu-
lated dose rates occur near the end of the operations period and subse-
quently drop off as residuals decay away. A detailed repository design,
with operating procedures is needed for extending this demonstration into
a more complete assessment.
Application of AMRAW to ground surface storage is discussed but
12
-------
not inplemented at this time. The methods demonstrated for repository
operations are directly applicable.
As a supplement to the application of AMRAW to a repository in bedded
salt, a preliminary demonstration for another geologic setting is made
to illustrate the generic nature of the model. The other setting chosen
is the Denver Basin, which has a thick deposit of Pierre shale. This
formation is assumed to be at the Los Medanos model site in lieu of the
existing bedded salt formation, to illustrate different geologic param-
eters with the same demographic and agricultural setting. Due to the
lower thermal conductivity of shale, compared to bedded salt, the required
repository area is assumed to double. The corresponding disruptive event
probabilities are adjusted to reflect this change in area. Data from the
Oklo natural reactor is used to estimate sorption properties of Denver
Basin shale. Seismic and hydrology data is not presently available for
the Denver Basin and Los Medafios area data was therefore assumed to apply.
Results calculated for the application to shale indicate dose rates
to be consistently lower for shale, but not dramatically lower. The
better sorption properties estimated for shale prevent discharge of
C-14, .Tc^99, and Np-237, each of which breaks through for the bedded salt
application. The only nuclide with breakthrough in ground water in shale
is 1-129. Because of the preliminary nature of this demonstration, input
data uncertainty is such that detailed analysis of the output is not
justified. Conclusions comparing bedded salt with shale should not be
drawn prior to running the AMRAW model with more complete input data.
The feasibility of applying AMRAW to other radioactive and non-
radioactive hazardous materials is investigated. In general, the model
is directly applicable to low- and intermediate-level radioactive materials
as well as high-level, with appropriate adjustment of release scenarios
and other effected input data. There can be difficulty in establishing,
the radionuclide inventory and effective leaching parameters due to a
possibly wide range of waste components and waste forms.
Nonradioactive hazardous materials is a broad category addressed
by the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act of 1976 [P£?6]. The AMRAW
model is traced etep by step to determine the applicability of the
major secjuential parameters used in calculations. Input of inventory
13
-------
masses in grams and setting "specific activity" = 1.0 obtains releases,
environmental concentrations, and intake in terms of grains instead of
in Curies as with radioactive materials. The dose conversion factor,
DOSFAC, does not have a nonradioactive equivalent at the present time,
though simply setting it equal to 1.0 obtains intake rates in lieu of
"dose rates."
The concept of incidence rates of health effects corresponding to
intake rates (used by the Economic Model, AMRAW-B) is not well developed
for nonradioactive materials. Subject to limitations because of the lack
of information correlating toxic materials with health effects, AMRAW
can be applied to these materials for some assessment objectives.
14
-------
Chapter 3
CONCLUSIONS
There are two groups of conclusions presented in this volume. The
first group refers to the development of the AMRAW-A model and computer
codei the second group refers to implementation of the model. Part 1 of
this volume covers terminal storage in a bedded salt model repository;
Part 2 covers other applications. Conclusions from development and
implementation of the Economic Model (AMBAW-B) are presented in Volume
III.
The AMRAW model, including the AMRAW-A part, is interdisciplinary
and successfully brings together results from several fields of study
for technology assessment of each phase of radioactive waste management.
AMRAW does not replace established models which are in use for various
segments of the problem, such as air dispersion, geosphere ana biosphere
transport, environmental pathway analysis, and dosimetry Instead, most
of the calculations within AMRAW make use of input arrays and matrixes
of factors or coefficients obtained from the established models, aug-
mented by the judgements of experts in each discipline. Simplified
versions of leaching and ground water transport models are used inter-
nally, but these as well as the major model sections (Fig. 2-1) are each
contained in subprograms, providing for replacement should this become
desired. Output from AMRAW is provided at several stages through the
model giving calculated release quantities, environmental concentrations,
and doses to population.
AMRAW-A interfaces the component models providing continuous cal-
culations from the Source Term (Inventory at Risk), through the Release
Model and the two parts of the Environmental Model (Transport to Environ-t
ment and Environment-to-Man Pathways), obtaining output doses to popu-
lation. This output is the major input to AMRAW-B which then calculates
health effects and the corresponding damages in economic units. The
two parts of AMRAW can be linked together for a continuous run, but it
has been convenient to maintain them separately for development purposes
and parametric studies.
15
-------
The model is unique in that it simultaneously can consider a wide
range of potential geologic disturbances, including events leading to
expulsion into the air or to surface land or water as well as release
to and transport by ground water. The provisions for input of geologic
modeling data are flexible, permitting representation by time dependent
functions. When progress is made in dynamic simulation of repositories,
which seeks to calculate degradation of repository containment from
slow tectonic and thermal processes, the present programming in AMRAW
will accommodate the resulting time dependent release data. At the
present time, data for prediction of future geologic events is subject
to large uncertainties. However, AMRAW can be run for ranges of input
to determine importance of improved prediction and can also be run for
discrete event occurrences to explore consequences independently from
probability predictions.
A. PART l: TERMINAL STORAGE IN BEDDED SALT
Implementation of the model to terminal storage in a bedded salt
model repository leads to numerous findings. First, consider the base
case, run in the probabilistic mode. This case considers several types
of geologic disturbance events; severe earthquake {leading to possible
leach incident), volcanism, meteorite impact, and surface erosion dis-
6
tributed probabilistically over 10 y. Each conclusion reached may be
altered as new data becomes available and each might or might not'apply
to a different site.
1} Contributions to dose from releases to ground water are minimized
due to low ground water velocity and sorption effects. Only
C-14, Tc-99, 1-129, and Np-237 among 25 radionuclides studied
G
with present data, emerge at 10 km distance within 10 y.
2} At times up to 700,000 y, local dose rates are dominated by low
probability/high consequence volcanic events releasing to air,
land surface, and surface water, over dose rates from releases
to ground water via offset faulting and leaching. After 700,000
y in a zone where ground water is a factor (e.g., Zone 2),
breakthrough of neptunium is indicated (if ground water velocity
is conservatively increased by a factor of 6), resulting in
16
-------
0
dominance by ground water releases in the 700,000 - 10 y time
interval. However, in Zone 2, the average local dose rate to
0
700,000 y is only 0.0008 mrem/y and to 10 y, including the
late ground water dominance, is only 0.09 mrem/y. In Zone 1,
which contains the repository and is not influenced by ground
water, the average dose rate over 10^ y is obtained as 0.006
mrem/y.
3) Nonspecific dose, calculated for largely exported agricultural
products, corresponds to a low individual dose rate. The agri-
cultural products for the study region represent the total food
for close to one million persons, though in fact such persons
would have this food greatly diluted by uncontaminated sources.
For the base case, the 10^ y integrated nonspecific dose is
5
obtained as 6.9 x 10 man-rem, representing an average rate of
0
0.7 man-rem/y or a maximum individual rate (10 persons, averaged
S 6 -5
over 10 y) of 0.7/10 = 7 x 10 rem/y = 0.07 mrein/y.
4) In geographic zones where surface water is a major source of
drinking water (> 25%), surface water generally becomes the
most significant environmental receptor for contributions to
local dose rates, followed closely by air; otherwise, air is the
most significant receptor. Note, however, that initial release
to air is the major pathway for surface water contamination and
that deposition on land leads to resuspension in air. When sig-
nificant breakthrough occurs in ground water (such as Np in
Zone 2 after 700,000 y), it is the discharge of ground water to
surface water which is the major factor in affecting dose rates.
5) The average concentration in air (or integrated concentration
during an interval of time) is primarily from resuspension from
land surface accumulations. Note, however, that the surface
accumulation is largely via deposition from air originally.
6) The most significant radionuclides shift as one progresses
through the model: masses in inventory, radioactivity in
inventory, environmental receptor concentrations, and dose rates.
Also at each stage in the model, the nuclides included among
the most significant change with time. Twenty of the 25 nuclides
17
-------
studied are among the 5 most significant in one or more instances
of: environmental activity or dose to population. Actinides
and daughters and Tc-99 completely dominate dose after 100 y.
7) The 5 most significant nuclides at each of several times during
6
the 10 y range comprise close to 100% of the total dose rates
at each time.
8) Only 7 nuclides comprise almost all of the total nonspecific
dose rates: Cs-137 and Sr-90 are virtually the total up to
400 y; Am-241 and Am-243 are the major contributors from 400 -
5000 y; Ra-226 and Tc-99 are virtually the total for all times
£
> 5000 y, but Np-237 dominates after breakthrough near 10 y.
Extension of the base case through the sensitivity analysis series
leads to additional conclusions related to the probabilistic mode of
operation:
1) The total of all volcanism scenarios contributes approximately
90% of the base case total for environmental concentrations
and local dose to population (e.g., Zone 2); faulting and leach-
ing to ground water contributes 9%; meteorite impact contributes
the remaining less than 1%. However, breakthrough of Np after
700,000 y leads to dominance by ground water releases after
that time. Further consideration of plate tectonic concepts
may lead to reduction of the volcanism probabilities.
2) Over most of the time range, volcanism release to surface water
(considering Zone 2) is the most significant of the volcanism
components for local dose, followed in turn by volcanism re-
leases to land surface and to air in the time interval from
200 y through 100,000 y ( the latter two reverse at earlier and
later times).
3) Dose from direct exposure to land surface is a minor component
of the total and dose from water immersion (relatively short
exposure time) is negligible.
4) For a given ground water velocity, distance to discharge loca-
tion, and travel time, only nuclides with values of the distri-
bution coefficient, K^, less than a boundary value will emerge.
18
-------
3
In this application, K > 10 cm /g retards the peak concentra-
6 —3
tion to after 10 y for a water velocity of 4 x 10 m/d and
distance of 10 km.
5) Increasing the estimated value of the environmental decay con-
stant decreases rates of dose to population. However, a two
order of magnitude increase in environmental decay constant
results in less than a one order reduction of dose rates.
6) The large uncertainties in available data preclude benefits
from further ground water model refinements at this time.
Meanwhile, the provisions in AMRAW handle chain decay in an
indirect manner without requiring complex calculations.
The series of consequence analysis cases consider discrete events,
volcanic explosion release to air and leach event fallowing severe earth-
quake, occurring at specific times. Volcanic events are postulated at
times of 1000 y, 10,000 y and 100,000 y; leach incidents are postulated
commencing at 100 y, 1000 y and 10,000 y.
1) With the conservative assumptions that one-half of the reposi-
tory inventory intersected by a volcano becomes expelled and
is not reburied, it is found that if this event occurred at
1000 y or later, the local dose rates in Zone 2, close to the
repository site, become far greater than regulatory limits but
are not at a lethal level. In Zone 1, containing the repository
site, the indicated dose rates are too high for continuous
residence. Here it should be noted that the volcano would
induce prolonged evacuation of the population independent of a
radiological increment to the consequences. Site selection can
preclude early disruption by volcanic action.
2) For the sorption properties used, only C-14, Tc-99, 1-129, and a
©
Np-237 appear at a distance of 10 km within 10 y following
start of a leach incident at 100 y. The corresponding dose
rates are low.
3) Decreasing all K, values by a factor of 20 induces Cs-135,
a
Ra-225, and Ra-226 (K, for Ra = 3.5) to appear at 10 km with
a
the maximum concentration of Ra-226 reached at about 700,000 y.
19
-------
For this case, the dose rates are negligible through 30,000 y
{< 0.1 mrem/y total body in Zone 2 and < 200 man-rein/y non-
specific, also for total body), but substantial dose rates
0
accrue as 10 y is approached, because of greatly reduced re-
tardation. While this case does not represent an expected
condition, it emphasizes the importance of obtaining good data
for K,.
d
4) An increase of the environmental decay constant by a factor of
100 reduces the total local dose impact following a volcanic
explosion release to air (total body dose rate integrated over
10^ y) by a factor of 18 and nonspecific dose impact by a
factor of 55.
In addition to the above conclusions, general conclusions based
upon all of the cases can be drawn. The results for the probabilistic
calculations show dominance by the low probability/high consequence
events over most of the time range but faulting and leaching release
0
to ground water dominates at times close to 10 y. The discrete
event cases show that events such as volcanic release to air do have
relatively high consequences. There is bound to be a disagreement on
interpretation of these findings. Some persons believe the extremely
low probabilities for an occurrence justify neglecting these events,
while others find no comfort in probabilities. It has been beyond the
scope of this study to compare these results with the consequences of
the same type of events in major metropolitan centers or through
naturally radioactive ore bodies. It is apparent, however, that if
further development of reason concerning assessment of low probability/
high consequence events dictates that this source of risk must be
minimized, one ccmes to the conclusion that multiple repository sites
are needed. This approach reduces the inventory in any one location;
the consequences may be reduced to tolerable levels. The probability of
more than one such site being affected by severe events is infinitesimal.
Next, if meteorite protection is to be provided, multiple sites plus
burial depth become important. Increased depth reduces the probability
of a sufficiently energetic impact for exhumation.
The site selection should maintain favorable ground water conditions.
20
-------
A site should have low ground water velocities and have a hydrologic
setting which provides low susceptibility for augmented flow by pluvial
conditions from climatic changes. The geologic medium either in the
repository horizon or bordering it should have good sorption properties
(K.) to retard nuclide migration,
d
The waste inventory and waste form has a direct bearing on risk.
Risk is reduced if the actinide content in eit^laced waste is lowered.
A corollary of this is that with multiple repositories, partitioning
of the waste and emplacement of actinides in the most secure of the sites
reduces risk. Good leach resistance of the waste form is necessary to
preserve all factors of the multiple barrier isolation concept. This
suggests that all high-level waste should be incorporated in a leach
resistant matrix.
B. PART 2: OTHER APPLICATIONS
The preliminary demonstration of AMRAW to the repository operations
phase illustrates that AMRAW has the flexibility to be applied to each
of the phases in the waste management sequence. Flexibility in the model
provides for representing waste quantities being handled and subject to
release at any time, both at the surface and underground, as functions
of time related to the total inventory accumulation. Dose rates result-
ing from repository operations are a maximum near the end of the opera-
tions period and subsequently decline.
Application of AMRAW to ground surface storage may be made using
methods for data preparation similar to those used for the repository
operations demonstration.
AMRAW is generic in nature and is applicable to a variety of geo-
logic settings. Subject to limitations related to the availability of
data, the model can be used to compare various repository sites and
waste inventories.
It is feasible to apply AMRAW to other radioactive (low-level and
intermediate-level wastes) and nonradioactive hazardous materials. This
may be done directly for radioactive materials. In the case of nonradio-
active materials, the various parameters used in AMRAW for radioactivity
21
-------
and radiation dose can be adapted to other appropriate quantities and
toxicity indices. Revision of output table headings may be made to re-
flect quantities calculated in units other than Curies and rem. The
major difficulty in applying AMRAW to nonradioactive hazardous materials
is the lack of a systematic toxic index system for paralleling and
accumulating contributions from a variety of components in an inventory.
22
-------
Chapter 4
RECOMMENDATIONS
The systems model and computer code, AMRAW, are operational. There
will always be improvements in the model which can be made, and there
will never be as much data or data as accurate as the user of the as-
sessment method would like to have. Also, there will continue to be
uncertainty with prediction of geologic events. Certain areas of data
need attention as shown by this study. Additional applications of the
model and further study of calculated results will be helpful in under-
standing the most important contributors to risk from waste disposal,
and defining the ways to minimize the risk. However, caution should
be exercised to avoid non-ending studies prior to completing assessments
and making decisions to resolve radioactive waste management questions.
Recommendations given here relate to AMRAW-A in general; recommendations
relating directly to AMRAW-B are given in Vol. III.
Areas of data which have significant effects on results obtained by
AMRAW and which need attention are: distribution coefficient (K,),
d
environmental decay, resuspension and improved water usage information.
While results here indicate that contributions to dose from release to
ground water are smaller than from releases by lower probability/higher
consequence events to other receptors over most of the 10° y range of
time, it is found that reducing all K, values by a factor of 20 increased
6
10 y integrated local and nonspecific dose by factors of about 360 and
4
6 x 10 , respectively; this dominates the strong dependence upon sorption
properties. Comprehensive K, data is needed for several types of geolo-
d
gic media, and ranges of water analysis. Corresponding sorption data is
needed for fractured media [Ws77]. Environmental decay relates to re-
moval and retention mechanisms which reduce the environmental concentra-
tion of a nuclide with time, independent of radiodecay. This includes
leaching down from the soil surface past the root zone, sedimentation
in water, removal via harvest of agricultural products, and chemical
retention. In this study, a token recognition of these processes uses
an environmental half-time of 30,000 y and investigates sensitivity to
23
-------
reduction of this half-time by a factor of 100. Comprehensive correla-
tion of data in the literature plus new studies should be done to obtain
more realistic estimates for environmental persistence following dis-
persal. Resuspension from ground surface to air is partly related to
environmental decay. As a radionuclide migrates down from the surface,
it becomes unavailable for resuspension. Also, weathering processes can
produce agglomeration, reducing resuspension. As resuspension is found
to dominate the average air concentration, improved understanding of
this mechanism is needed. The surface water receptor is found to be
the most significant environmental receptor for contributions to local
dose rates. Surface water receives contamination from several sources
including deposition from the air and discharge by ground water. In
this study, assumptions were made regarding areas and volumes of surface
water present and the usage of this water for drinking. In further work,
a detailed survey should be performed to determine specific water usage
details. Non-use of water sources having excess salinity would tend to
lower the impact calculated here.
Additional modeling, external to AMRAW, can provide improved under-
standing of volcanic interactions with a waste repository and of slow
processes. Volcanic processes are found to dominate the environmental
impact when AMRAW is run in the probabilistic mode, under the assump-
tions used. It is assumed that one-half of the repository inventory
intersected by a volcanic process is transported and not reburied. This
is to say that not all will be pushed aside and not all with be carried
to an exposed position. Remaining to be determined from additional
modeling by geologists is the degree to which repository inventory be-
comes entrained by flowing magma or volatiles, and the degree to which
transported material becomes mixed and diluted in surface deposits or
becomes reburied. Also the chemical form after transport may not ren-
der radionuclides immediately available for biological intake, as as-
sumed in this study, but may involve a delay period for weathering and
leaching. If further study shows that mitigating processes may be as-
sumed, the relative importance of the volcanic release scenarios will
be reduced. Also, further consideration should be given to modern tec-
tonic plate concepts to determine whether lower volcanic probabilities
or whether lower or zero probabilities until some specified time are
24
-------
more appropriate. Modeling of slow tectonic, thermal, and other processes
which can potentially degrade repository containment through fracturing
of surrounding structure and altering of the hydrologic system is another
imcomplete area of geologic study. Similarly, mechanisms for breaching
repository mine shaft seals and transport via that route to the surface,
and response to drilled holes penetrating a repository, have not been
defined sufficiently to provide input data for an assessment model.
Application to repository operations and ground surface storage
beyond the preliminary demonstration and discussion presented in Part 2
of this volume requires design details and operating procedures for the
facilities. This includes details of protective features of interim
storage facilities (including earthquake and missile resistance), the
number of waste canisters involved in various storage and handling opera-
tions and data on the possibility of and consequences of canister rupture.
Further application of AMRAW to these waste management phases depends
upon a restudy of release scenarios based upon complete facility design
details to upgrade the AMRAW input data.
If an application of AMRAW to nonradioactive hazardous materials
is to be made, a version of AMRAW for this purpose should be prepared.
This involves changing terminology in output table headings to other than
radioactivity and radiation dose units. The altered version cam consist
of merely changing the wording in format statements to provide changed
table headings. If more flexibility is desired to acconnnodate various
units for quantities and toxicity indices for different categories of
hazardous materials, provision can be made in AMRAW for reading in
appropriate alphanumeric variables for use in titles of output tables.
The major need in application of AMRAW to nonradioactive hazardous
materials is not in model adaptations but is in obtaining a better
understanding of biological effects of these materials and in systema-
tizing environmental and intake quantities with respect to health effects.
Much less is known about effects of nonradioactive materials than is
known about radioactive materials. Additional work is needed to charac-
terize each material by a consistent set of toxicity parameters to permit
similar generic treatment of several components in an assessment model.
There are several types of AMRAW applications recommended for
25
-------
further work. The model should be applied to various proposed reposi-
tory sites in different geologic media: shale, basalt, granite, and
dome salt. Different emplacement methods such as a drilled hole ma-
trix and conventional mining may affect the results and should be in-
vestigated. An application which can help to place results obtained to
date into perspective is the calculation of risk associated with an
undisturbed uranium ore body. This is a naturally radioactive "reposi-
tory" of low concentration but having a large area. Responses to as-
sumed releases without fully characterizing the release mechanism can
be helpful in comparing different demographic or agricultural settings,
various environmental pathways, or movement via ground water. Extension
of sensitivity analysis is recommended to further bracket the important
ranges of significant parameters.
Unreprocessed spent fuel disposed of as high-level waste would increase
the environmental risk from the terminal storage phase due to: 1) increased
volume of waste which increases total repository area required, 2) large
increase of plutonium in the waste inventory, and 3) increased thermal
energy release and continuation of thermal effects over long time periods
which accentuates this perturbation. Also, unless some processing is
done to incorporate the material in a leach resistant matrix, the waste
form is more susceptible to releases by leaching. The long term environ-
mental risk of spent fuel as waste should be assessed.
Further refinement of the AMRAW code is not recommended at this
time, although specific applications may suggest providing additional or
alternate subprograms or output forms. There is a tendency for persons
to suggest that each component model in an assessment model be expanded
to the most sophisticated level available. This leads to the false belief
that greater accuracy is necessarily achieved where in fact the greatest
limitation is generally due to data uncertainty. As complex a code as
desired may be used external to AMRAW for preparation of input data, but
AMRAW itself should be kept as simple as possible. Two of the five sub-
programs in AMRAW-A utilize analytic modeling equations to calculate
quantities using basic nuclide-dependent parameters: RLEACH calculates
leach rates, and CRATIO calculates concentration ratios in ground water at
a point of interest compared to the vicinity of release. This internal
treatment is in lieu of working only with input parameters determined by
26
-------
external models. Where either of these internal modeling provisions
limits applicability of AMRAW or where there is user preference for other
approaches, alternate subprograms for leaching or ground water transport
can be adapted as part of follow-up work. This can be done by either of
two approaches: 1) provide a simplified version of an alternate calcu-
lation sequence, appropriate to repetitive calling in a computer code,
or 2) run an alternate code externally and fit results to simple func-
tions which may be used in an AMRAW subprogram.
27
-------
Intentionally Blank Page
28
-------
PART 1
IMPLEMENTATION FOR TERMINAL STORAGE
IN BEDDED SALT REFERENCE REPOSITORY
Chapter 5, Description of Reference Repository Site
Chapter 6. Implementation of Model; Base Case
Chapter 7, Implementation of Model: Other Cases
Chapter 8, Evaluation of Results
Appendices for Part 1: A through N
29
-------
Intentionally Blank Page
30
-------
Chapter 5
DESCRIPTION OF REFERENCE REPOSITORY SITE
Application of the assessment methodology to a specific site has
been accomplished for purposes of: 1) aiding a more complete develop-
ment of the model and AMRAW computer code, and 2) providing useful out-
put for waste management planning. The site chosen for this initial
application is the Los Medanos area in southeastern New Mexico. This
area is in a stable region, has thick deposits of nearly horizontal
bedded salt (Salado Formation) and is under study for potential instal-
lation of a Waste Isolation Pilot Plant [Wr77]. The proposed pilot
plant is for DOE trans-uranium waste and experimental retrievable em-
placement of some high-level waste. There are no plans at the present
time to expand this facility into a full scale high-level waste reposi-
tory. Further, it is expected that there will ultimately be as many as
six repositories in the United States for commercial high level waste
[Mc76]. The application of AMRAW reported here assumes for study pur-
poses that there is only one repository, located at Los Medanos. The
reader should note that concentration of the total waste inventory at
one site represents a conservative case for demonstration of the assess-
ment methodology and does not represent present waste management planning.
31
-------
A. LOS MEDANOS AREA
The Los Medaiios area is in southeastern New Mexico approximately
40 km (25 miles) east of the city of Carlsbad. The present waste re-
pository study area is centered between Sections 20 and 29, Township
22 South, Range 31 East (103° 43' West Longitude, 32° 22' North Lati-
tude) . This location is shown on the map in Fig. 5-1 [Jn73].
Figure 5-2 shows a stratigraphic column for the area [Jn75] , and
Table 5-1 describes the rock units. A cross-section of the region from
east of the study area, west to the Guadalupe Mountains is in Fig 5 - 3.
The proposed horizon for location of a high-level radioactive waste
repository is in rock salt at a depth of about 800 m in the lower Salado
2
Formation. The repository disposal area is assumed to be 10 km (see
Section 6.A.). This is indicated, approximately to scale, on Fig. 5 - 1 .
The deep deposits below the Salado Formation are shown in Fig. 5- 4.
Additional geologic information may be found in references Jn7 3, Jn75,
C£74, BLM75, and Ke71b.
For assessment purposes, a region consisting of 13 New Mexico and
Texas counties within a radius of 200 km of the repository site is con-
sidered. This region is divided into eight zones, described in Section
5.C. A more detailed geologic and hydrologic discussion follows.
32
-------
Ref: USGS-4339-7
(5)
iiufKo v n
4ik'noS ioci
MYE*
Figure 5-1. Location of Los Medanos area, Southeastern
New Mexico.
33
-------
APPROXIMATE
THICKNE6S
FEET (METRES)
SECTION
MEKBER
rORhATION
¦
S*ntA
Rosa
Sandstone
Dewey
Lake
Bedbeds
lustier
ncNuCC
potash
a one
Salado
1,100
>1,000 (>305)
Castile
GENERAL CHARACTER
Sandstone lnterbedded wlch mud-
stone
Siltstone and very fine grained
sandstone
Anhydrite (gypsum) interbedded
with dolomite, siltstone, and
sandstone
Rock salt interbedded with
anhydrite, glaubcriee, silty
sandstone, sad a variety of
potassiua-beerlng rocks
Anhydrite and scsais of rock salt
explanation
hudsrone
Slltotone
EH
Sandstone
Dolocaite
ESI
Anhydrite «nd(or)
ochcr sulfAce rock
Rock ««Lc
S
3 et #+*
vi O
-6 f|
i" i!
ft]
?ri3 l,
Q. 6
m
31
a c
¦w t>
6£
u g
Ref: USGS-75-407
Figure 5-2
Stratigraphic column of consolidated rocks penetrated
by site evaluation borings sunk in Los Medanos area.
34
-------
Table 5-1. Summary of Rock Units of Latest Permian (Ochoan) and Younger
Age, Los Medanos Area, Eddy and Lea Counties, New Mexico (Ref: USGS-4339-7)
AS
e
Rock Unit
Thickness
(feet)
Description
Quaternary
Holocene
Mescalero
Sand
0-15
Dune aand, uniformly fine-grained, light-brown to reddish-brown
Caliche
0-5
Limestone, chalky, includes fragments-of underlying rock
1
Q ^
•*4 O
CJ I c
H o U
CU O
Gatuna
Formation
0-375
Sandstone and silestone, poorly indurated, dominantly reddish-orange
1
4J
|J
0) U
H O
Plio-
cene
Ogallala
Formation
20-60
Sandstone, fine- to medium-grained, tan, pink, and gray, locally con-
glomeratic, and typically has resistant cap of well-indurated caliche
Triaooic
u
•*4
*» o
aj a
3.3
h
H
Chinle
Formation
300-800
Mudstone shaly, reddish-brown end greenish-gray, interbedded lenses of
conglomerate, and gray and reddish-brown sandstone
Santa Rosa
Sandstone
212-245
Sandstone, medium- to coarse-grained, coicmonly cross-stratified, gray
and yellowish-brown, contains conglomerate and reddish-brown mudstone
e
9
E
Pi
— -i
Ochoan
Dewey Lake
Redbeds
505-560
Siltstone and aandstone, very fine to fine-grained, reddlah-orange to
reddish-brown, contains interbedded reddish-brown claystone, small-
scale lamination and cross-atratification cannon
Rustler
Formation
280-490
Anhydrite and rock salt with subordinate dolomite, sandstone, claystone,
and polyhalite
Salado
Forottion
1^00-2^10
Rock salt with subordinate anhydrite, polyhalite, potassium oresj
sandstone, and magnesite
Castile
Foroatlon
30-l£30
Anhydrite and rock salt with aubordinate limestone
-------
u>
CF>
Z
o
h-
<
>
Ui
_J
UJ
SEA
LEVEL
-1000
-2000
TENTATIVE
SITE
4500
s. GUADALUPE
A MTS
4000
PECOS
RIVER
I
3000
2000
'MM
1000
ANHYDR
SALT
MiLES
(SAND AND
fiCALICHE
RED BEDS
UNDIFFERENTIATED
[PIERCE CANYON
:{red BEDS
(RUSTLER
FORMATION
SALADO
FORMATION
CASTILE
FORMATION
Figure 5-3.
Cross section of region.
-------
ai-« p-12
flttf 1«f
KM *? U<» »~
+ 2000
KUI
Mil It
+ 2000
SALADO
TANSILL
CAAILLfT
CAPITAN
bell canyon
^2000
-2000
cherry canyon
brushy canyon
-4000 ^
-4000
PERMIAN
-6000 -ri
-6000
bone springs
-8000
-8000
WOLFCAMP
P'SCO- CANYON
strawn
-10,000
10,000
ATOKA
morrow
mou*
LtME
la u.oi
SJSSIPPIAN
ro avc
V°OOFQftO
tft
SILURO- DEVONIAN LIME
rii.-jV
-12,00
¦14,00.
-16,000
ELLt:na^f
-------
B. GEOLOGIC/HYDROLOGIC DESCRIPTION
A discussion of geologic and hydrologic features of the Los Medanos
area provides a base for evaluation of potential release events con-
sidered in the AMRAW model application. No attempt is made to model
the many complex geologic processes within AMRAW. Instead, each generic
process is subjected to study by geologists to determine the potential
for occurrence at the specific site, to estimate the extent and reposi-
tory implications of any such occurrence, and to develop the interrela-
tionships between synergistic events. Input to the AMRAW computer code
consists of the Release Model data, discussed later, which reflects geo-
logic data and judgements by geologists. The following discussion de-
scribes processes which either may or may not affect the site. Table
5-2 lists geologic time divisions. The figures and table in the
previous section also help in interpreting the references to various
formations.
Table 5 - 2 . Geologic Time Divisions
Era
Cenezoic
Mesozoic
Paleozoic
Period
Quaternary
Tertiary
Cretaceous
Jurassic
Triassic
Permian*
Pennsylvanian
Mississippian
Devonian
Cambrian
Beginning,
million
years ago
0.60
65
135
180
230
280
310
345
405
600
*The Permian includes Dewey Lake Redbeds, Rustler, Salado, Castile,
and other lower formations at Los Medanos Site.
38
-------
1. Structure and Tectonic Processes. The Los Medanos site is
located on the margin of the North American craton [KiP69J, a region that
has been relatively stable since Precambrian time, at least 570 million
years ago. Tectonic processes currently operative in the craton mainly
involve broad, epeirogenic warping, principally minor vertical movements.
These vertical movements may result in broad folds with low dips
or high-angle faults, mostly with small stratigraphic displacements.
Jointing may occur with either folding or faulting; at least one set of
joints and probably two sets will be about perpendicular to bedding.
Thus, folding and/or faulting could create fractures through which ground
water might move.
It is not known whether the joints would provide a fairly continu-
ous vertical access for waters, as the joints might not be propagated
through strata that tend to deform plastically, such as shales or eva-
porite.
Faults may be marked by breccia, which is extremely permeable, or
by gouge, which is impermeable. Carbonate rocks under low confining
pressures tend to brecciate. It is likely that faults in this region
would be very steeply dipping and therefore, would cut through the
stratigraphic column about normal to bedding.
It also seems likely that recent faults would tend to occur along
older faults at depth (in late Pennsylvanian deposits) and be propagated
upward through those strata that are younger than the prior fault.
The Los Medanos area is not part of the Basin-Range tectonic prov-
ince that is currently undergoing crustal extension. However, the
eastern margin of this province is the Sacramento uplift about 120 miles
to the west [Ke71a] and it is possible that the zone of crustal exten-
sion in the western United States may gradually extend eastward to
include the Los Medanos area. This seems highly unlikely at this time.
The structural processes that have been operative locally at the
Los Medanos site are discussed below. Inferences about these processes
are based on a description of the local structure by Jones [Jn73}.
The main structures in this area, the Delaware basin and northwest
shelf, are of Permian age and thus appear to have been stable for a long
39
-------
part of geologic time (about 225 million years). Los Medanos is located
near the northern edge of the Delaware basin which has a homoclinal dip
of about 2 degrees to the southeast here. This basin is bounded on the
north by a monocline in this area. These regional structures appear to
be stable.
Local structures include intraformational folds apparently caused
by downdip gravitational flow of salt and folds caused by subsidence
as underlying salt units changed thickness.
Structure contour maps by Jones [Jn73] of the base of the Castile
and the base of the Salado show that within this area there are folds
that plunge moderately to the southeast. However, the folds are dis-
harmonic (form or magnitude of fold varies with depth) , due to differences
in thicknesses of stratigraphic units across the area.
The monoclinal that is in evidence at the base of the Castile
Formation disappears upsection and is not present above the top of the
formation. A gentle homoclinal (group of inclined beds of same dip)
dip toward the southeast is maintained throughout the section with little
or no change in direction or amount of dip from one level to the next.
At intermediate and other levels in the section, the structure is
generally more uneven than at the base of the Castile Formation, and
minor folds are more prominent. Salt and anhydrite in the middle member
of the Castile are crumpled in sharp intraformational folds that appear
to die out northwestward updip and become more pronounced southeastward
downdip. Spatially, the intraformational folding of evaporite appears
to be confined to a single long northwestwardly trending belt, about
2 km wide, that more or less coincides in trend and extent with the
prominent southeast-plunging trough at the base of the Castile. The
folding has resulted in buckling in the Salado Formation.
Uplift of the Salado and rocks as young as the Chinle Formation has
resulted in a fairly broad arch that trends northwestward across the area.
The exact age of the deformation is unknown, but is post-Late Triassic
to pre-Pliocene (late Tertiary) , Deformation may have occurred during
or shortly after regional tilting that followed the deposition of Cre-
taceous rocks. The deformation probably occurred before any great thick-
ness of Cretaceous rocks was removed by erosion.
40
-------
Structure at the level of the pre-Tertiary terrane (above Salado
salt bed), by Jones [Jn73] , is complex. It includes most features
apparent at lower levels plus additional features of subsidence folds
that combine the total effect of all the warping and settling of rocks
to conform with the topography of the upper surface of salt in areas
where salt movement took place. Subsidence folds contribute considerably
to the general unevenness of the structure at all levels above the upper
surface of salt in central and western Los Medanos area, and they rather
noticeably disrupt and otherwise modify the southeast homoclinal dip
and continuity of the northwest-trending arch related to post-Cretaceous
salt deformation. The folds are clearly post-Cretaceous, but may have
formed during mid-Tertiary or earlier time. The folds extend into areas
where the Ogallala Formation of Pliocene (late Tertiary) age has escaped
deformation related to subsidence, but where other rocks above the
Rustler-Dewey Lake contact have subsided.
The Salado Formation appears to be little deformed internally, as
most of the salt movement probably took place in the Rustler and stra-
tigraphically higher units.
2. Hydrology. The Los Medanos area of east-central Eddy County
and west-central Lea County is characterized by a flat, gently undulat-
ing topography which, on a regional scale, slopes toward the Pecos
River. Superimposed on this surface are numerous arroyos and closed
depressions; consequently there is little integrated surface-water drain-
age toward the Pecos. The maximum topographic relief on this surface is
about 210 m (700 ft). Average rainfall in the Los Medanos area is about
35 cm (14 in.) per year.
This site takes advantage of the thick halite sequence present in
the Salado Formation; conversely, very few test holes have been drilled
in the area and it is assumed that the hydrologic conditions that exist
are essentially undisturbed. The Salado Formation consists primarily
of halite, small amounts of anhydrite, polyhalite, and potassium salts
which are mined in the area. No wells are known to produce from the
Salado. In the potash mines near Los Medanos, no pore spaces capable
of transmitting water have been found, and there is no water in any of
these mines. Locally oil tests have encountered small pockets of
41
-------
super-saturated brine within the Salado, but this cannot be considered as
an aquifer.
In the immediate vicinity of the Los Medanos area there are five
stratigraphic formations that are potential sources of ground water that
could be induced into the Salado Formation: Silurian-Devonian carbonates
the Delaware Mountain Group,- the Capitan Reef complex,- the Rustler
Formation; the Santa Rosa Sandstone, Each of these are discussed below,
beginning with the deepest formation:
(a) Silurian-Devonian Carbonates. This sequence of limestone
containing dolomitic zones underlies all of the Los Medanos area. Al-
though these carbonates are a major oil producing horizon along the
Vacuum trend east of the project area, the rocks are relatively untested
at Los Medanos. A map constructed by Haigler and Cunningham [Hg72]
shows that the top of the carbonate sequence is located at a depth of
about 3,734 m (12,250 ft) below sea level at Los Medanos.
From the various formation and drill-stem tests that have been made
in the Silurian-Devonian sequence, hydrostatic pressures generally exceed
2
316 kg/cm (4,500 psi) or 3,168 m (10,395 ft.) of head. However, most
of these tests were made at a considerable distance from the Los Medanos
area itself. Also there is insufficient data available near the site to
construct a potentiometrie map of the formation which would be meaning-
ful.
The base of the Salado Formation is presently at a depth of about
183 m (600 ft.) above sea level at Los Medanos. The repository itself
would be located near the base of the Salado. Assuming that a pathway
were opened from the repository to the underlying Silurian-Devonian
sequence, water from the carbonates would rise to a level of about 610 m
(2,000 ft.) below sea level, or approximately 792 m (2,600 ft.) below
the repository.
(b) Delaware Mountain Group. This sequence of sandstone, shale
and limestone directly underlies the Castile Formation and the Salado.
A great deal of hydrologic data are available for this Group owing to
the extensive oil and gas production from these rocks. Contours on the
potentiometric surface of the Group indicate that the formation water
would rise to elevations of about 1,036 m (3,400 ft.) above sea level
42
-------
at the Los Medanos area (Hiss , unpublished data). Therefore an open
pathway from the repository to the underlying Delaware Mountain Group
would result in migration of formation fluid from the Group, through the
Castile and Salado formations, and the repository.
Although significant formation pressures have been found in the
Delaware Mountain Group [Hi75] , the transmissivity of the deposits is
extremely low. Therefore, the actual volume of water transferred pro-
bably would be relatively small.
(c) Capitan Reef Complex. In general the arcuate reef complex
borders the Los Medanos area in the west, north, and east at a minimum
distance of about 16 km. Hiss reported that ground water moves north-
eastward along the axis of the reef from the Guadalupe Mountains and
discharges into the Pecos River. Water flows the opposite direction
to the river from the Eddy-Lea County line. East and south of this
county boundary, ground water seemingly migrates out of the reef com-
plex through the so-called Hobbs channel and into the permeable forma-
tions that underlie the High Plains of Texas.
The unique hydrologic characteristics of the Capitan Limestone
have led to a great deal of study in recent years. The most recent
study has been made by Hiss [Hi75]. There are two facies of the lime-
stone; the reef facies of this limestone forms an arcuate belt extending
from the Guadalupe Mountains northeastward to Carlsbad, then east and
south into Texas. This unit, which is locally as much as 610 m (2,000
ft.) thick, is highly permeable and contains good to excellent quality
water. Due to the high permeability of the reef facies and its proximity
to numerous oil fields, many oil companies have developed wells in this
aquifer and produced water for secondary recovery of oil fields.
The transmissivities of the Capitan reef complex are higher than
those of any of the other formations in the area; conversely, the hydro-
static head is less than the more deeply buried Delaware Mountain Group.
An open pathway between the two geologic units would result in movement
°f water from the Delaware Mountain into the reef complex.
(d) Rustler Formation. East of the Pecos River the Rustler
formation unconformably overlies the Salado Formation. In general the
Rustler outcrops in the bluffs along the east bank of the Pecos River and
43
-------
it dips east and. southeast into Texas. This formation is characterized
by numerous facies changes; primary lithologies include interbedded red
and green sandy shale, interbedded shale and dolomite, as well as local
deposits of anhydrite and gypsum. Near Los Medanos the Rustler is
approximately 152 in (500 ft.) thick and can be divided into two units:
a lower clastic unit of variegated shale and some evaporites, and the
upper unit of anhydrite and dolomite.
Due to the erratic distribution of the various lithologies that
comprise this formation, the hydrologic characteristics are extremely
complex. Most workers agree that the ground water in this formation is
locally perched, may often be present under water-table conditions, and/
or is locally under artesian conditions. Most of the contours shown in
Fig. 5-5, described later, are based on the hydrologic conditions in
the Rustler. These closely resemble the contours of Cooper and Glanzman
[Cp71]. Water movement is generally toward the south and west with the
major discharge points in Nash Draw and the Pecos River near Malaga Bend.
Several of the potash companies have wells yielding several hundred
gallons per minute from aquifers in the Rustler; greatest yields proba-
bly are obtained from the Culebra Dolomite Member of the Rustler.
According to Hiss [Hi75], the average porosity of the Rustler
Formation is about 15 percent. This value may be slightly higher in the
dolomite facies of the deposits; however, the effective porosity in the
shale units would be considerably less. Consequently 15 percent is
probably a valid approximation of the porosity of the formation as a
whole.
Aquifers in the Rustler Formation are locally recharged directly
by precipitation; however, the total amount of recharge from rainfall
probably is inconsequential. Most recharge probably enters the Rustler
frcm runoff that has been impounded in the numerous sinkholes and playa
lakes that have developed on the surface.
According to a study made in the vicinity of the potash mines, scxne
playa lakes in the Rustler hold storm runoff for a much longer period
of time than others, thus suggesting that there may be more leakage from
some of the playas than from others. It was estimated that in this
44
-------
EXPLANATION
0.76
Direction of ground water flow. Number is rate of flow in feet per year.
Calculation is based on length and direction of vector, average trans-
lssivity of 12 square feet per day, and average aquifer thickness of 300
feet-
stiles
0
L_
5 km 10
_i j
10
3500
Contour on water table, 10 feet above
mean sea level. Interval 100 feet.
T17S
£3|1£.t17S
R31E
R30E
US 82
Loco Hills
MM 529
Laguna Plata
Q.
Williams
T20S
NM 176
R33E
R31E
/ R3 2E
R301 a^C /. J°S1 R31E
T21S
Figure 5-5. Water table map.
45
-------
R30E 31{
R31E
R32E
R29E
T21S
T21S
3100.
NM
tO.60
T22S
0.62
SITE
.65
0.58
0.57
NM 128
Salt take
T23S
0.47
o;
Malaga Bend
T24S
0.42
Pecos River
Big Sinks
T25S
T25S
>T26S
T26S
R31E
NEW "MEXICO
R32E
TEXAS
R30E
Figure 5-5. Water table map, continued
R29E
46
-------
vicinity the total area of ephemeral and permanent lakes contributing
2
recharge to the Rustler is approximately 20 km (5,000 acres).
One of the major topographic features near the Los Medanos area is
Nash Draw, a tributary to the Pecos River. Robinson and Lang [Rb38,
8 3
p. 88] estimated that there may be as many as 7.71 x 10 m (625,000
acre feet) of ground water—predominantly brine—within this draw. This
water moves southwestward where much of it is discharged as brine into
the Pecos River at Malaga Bend. Hale et al. [H&54, p. 2] and others
estimated that the natural discharge of brine from the Rustler Formation
into the Pecos River at Malaga Bend was about 3.70 x 10^ m"^ (300 acre
feet) per year or 0.012 m3/sec (185 gpm).
Not all of the playa lakes represent recharge areas; some serve as
discharge points for ground water. A detailed study was made by Robinson
and Lang [Rb38] at Salt Lake which is located near Malaga Bend in Nash
Draw. Test holes indicate that the lake is actually a ground-water dis-
charge point and that there is no leakage from the Salt Lake into the
Rustler. Theis [Ts42, p. 71] reached a similar conclusion. Both studies
indicated that the water in Salt Lake was derived from precipitation,
storm runoff, effluent from industrial developments, and from ground-
water discharge.
(e) Santa Rosa Sandstone. This formation generally overlies
the Rustler at Los Medafios; however, it extends only a short distance
west of the site according to Cooper and Glanzman [Cp71]. The deposit
consists of a series of red shale, siltstone, and sandstone beds; the
latter yields small quantiti.es of water to wells.
The potentiometric surface within this formation was mapped by
Cooper and Glanzman; however, in many areas it is known that both arte-
sian and water-table conditions exist. (These data are included in
Fig. 5-5). In general, water within the Santa Rosa migrates south and
southeast into San Simon Swale in Lea County; the ultimate discharge
point is the Pecos River in Texas.
(f) Other Formations. A description of the Ogallala Formation
(above the Santa Rosa Sandstone), and alluvium deposits is presented in
Appendix A.
47
-------
(g) Ground Water Flow. In order to determine the rate and
direction of the ground-water flow in the region surrounding the proposed
disposal site, hydrologic data were obtained from a variety of sources.
Water-level data were obtained from Hendrickson and Jones [He52] and
from Nicholson and Clebsch [Ni61]; unpublished data from the U. S.
Geological Survey was also used. The water table map prepared during
this study, Fig. 5 - 5 , was made with current hydrologic practice, using
English units. In the following discussion, metric units are also
stated.
It is recognized that these data points may include water levels
from perched aquifers, the regional water table, and the potentiometric
surface within the Rustler Formation. However, when contoured on a
regional basis and using a 100 ft. (30.5 m) contour interval, the general
shape and configuration is believed to be reasonably accurate. Further-
more, the erratic distribution of most of the aquifers on the Ogallala
Formation and the alluvium, as well as variations in permeability of the
Rustler, preclude construction of water-table or potentiometric maps of
individual aquifers in the Los Medanos area.
In general the map indicates that the ground water is moving from
northeast to southwest. The 3,500 ft. contour (1,067 m) is closed near
the center of the map indicating a recharge area. This closed contour
coincides with the location of several large sinks in Township 20 South,
Range 31 and 32 East. Regional maps of the water table indicate that
the ground water drains into the Pecos River which is located along the
west side of the study area.
The vectors indicate the general direction and rate of movement of
the ground water as calculated for each particular vector. Rates were
calculated and plotted in feet per year. Ground-water velocities range
from about 0.39 ft. (0.12 m) per year near the southern part of the area
to 1.05 ft. (0.32 m) per year in the north. At Los Medanos the average
rate of flow is about 0.70 ft. (0.21 m) per year toward the west-southwest.
Rates of ground-water movement are based on the equation:
Q = TIL
where: Q = discharge, in cubic feet per day
48
-------
T = transmissivity, in square feet per day
I = hydraulic gradient, in feet per feet
L = width of aquifer.
2
Transmissivity is estimated to vary between zero and 520 ft /day as
determined from unpublished data by Hiss [Hi75] for the Rustler Formation
in the vicinity of Los Medanos. For these calculations, an effective
2
average value of 12 ft /day is used. The hydraulic gradient was deter-
mined from the contours on the map; one foot was used for width of the
cross section. The ground-water flow velocity in feet per day is ob-
tained by dividing the discharge rate by the estimated thickness of the
aquifer {300 ft.) and the porosity (0.15).
49
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C. STUDY REGION AND DIVISION INTO ZONES
A region within a radius of approximately 150 km from the proposed
repository site is chosen for study. It is ejected that most of any
release of material would be dispersed within this region. To provide
for non-uniform dispersal, population, and other factors, it is appro-
priate to divide the region into several zones. For this study, a
division into 8 zones, as shown in Fig. 5 - 6, is used.
Population projections to the year 2020 are used in the economic
model for damage calculations. For New Mexico, the UNM Bureau of
Business Research supplied two projections (to be used as high and low),
as seen in Table 5-3. A Texas projection was obtained from the Popu-
lation Research Center of the University of Texas at Austin. This
projection for Texas was calculated using the high New Mexico rate and
assuming constant annual growth rate for 10 year intervals. Agricultural
data is listed in Table 5 - 4.
2
A circular zone with a radius of 5 km from the center of 10 km
assumed disposal site is designated as Zone 1. This zone, in Eddy
2
County, New Mexico, has an area of 78.5 km ; it represents a possible
controlled area during the first several decades after start of the
terminal storage phase. For computational purposes in the economic
model the zone is considered to have a constant population of 101 indi-
viduals .
Zone 2 includes all of the arid land in Eddy County outside of
Zone 1. Irrigated land in Eddy County comprises Zone 8, described later.
Carlsbad Caverns National Park is in the southwest quadrant of Zone 2.
Five Texas counties comprise Zone 3. The counties aire Culberson,
Reeves, Loving, Ward and Winkler. This zone, due to the Pecos River
running through it, could potentially receive a share of any radiation
release through the air and water medium. Zone 3 only had 1.6% of its
farm land in irrigation (Table 5-4) whereas 85% of the land is
farmed. Thus the primary impact of a release would be in terms of
airborne dispersion of waste to crop land. The principal towns in the
zone are Pecos and Kermit with an overall population density of .019
4 2 2
people per hectare (1 hectare =10 m = 0.01 km ).
50
-------
200 KM
Chaves
roswell
1/
KM
BRQWNFIELD
\ o
Yoakum Co. \
' Terry Co.
9
LQVINGTON
"50 KM
ARTESIA
HOBBS
SEMINOLE
\0
\ Gaines Co
ZONE 5
CARLSBAD
<8
ANDREWS
I °
Andrews Co.
ZONE 4
. „ MIDLAND
Loving ^Winkler
Co.„kermitO Co,I ODESSA
o.
Culberson Co.
IDLAND
ZONE 3
MONAHANSQ
Reeves
* POPULATION
O 25,000 TO 50,000
O 5,000 to 25,000
o 1,000 to 5,000
Zone 1 is a 5 km radius area centered on the Los Medanos site.
k
Zone 8 is a 4 km corrider centered on the Pecos River in Eddy County
Figure 5-6. Study region and zones.
51
-------
Table 5-3. High and Low Population Projections
19 70 - 2020
High
ZONE
YEAR
1+2+8
3
4
5 .
6
7
'1970
41,119
42,778
157,237
43,452
49,552
43,335
1980
66,500
77,813
286,014
79,039
84,600
92,400
1990
85,350
101,935
374,678
103,541
112,450
121,900
2000
104,200
126,135
436,629
128,122
140,300
151,400
2010
138,050
169,650
587,266
172,324
192,850
202,250
2020
171,900
213,168
783,533
Low
216,526
245,400
253,100
1970
41,119
42,778
157,237
43,452
49,554
43,335
1980
44,000
38,236
163,406
43,462
53,600
47,800
1990
48,000
36,778
173,634
42,231
58,400
52,400
2000
52,000
39,099
188,319
45,547
63,200
57,000
2010
56,500
44,678
204,314
50,599
68,600
6'2,400
2020
61,000
53,578
224,047
57,869
74,000
67,800
•Values
for zones
1+2+8 are totals for Eddy County.
Estimated breakdown used for year 2020;
Zone High Low
1 101 101
2 17,200 6,100
8 155,000 54,900
52
-------
Table 5-4. Land Use Patterns for
1969 by Zone3
1+2+13^
3
4
5
6
7
Approximate land area
(1000 hectares)0
1079
2284
478
1223
1138
1576
Land In farms
(1000 hectares)
435
1944
495
899
939
1089
% of Land in Farms
40
85
109
73
83
69
Irrigated land (1000 hectare*)
22
32
6
153
22
35
% of Farm Land Irrigated
5.0
1.6
1.2
17.0
2.3
3.2
All Cattle (1000's)
55
100
39
53
71
140
Milk Cova
721
679
360
384
1680
2490
All Hogs"(1000's)
4.5
1.8
1.6
14.8
6.4
5.2
All Sheep (1000's)
43.8
1.3
12,9
15.6
21.3
165.7
Chickens (1000's)
200
16.5
59.6
282.9
28.2
21.7
Field Corn for Grain
(1000 kilograms)
191
0
3
145
228
413
Sorghum for Grain or Seed
(1000 kilograms)
2598
7208
3830
239050
18872
4941
Wheat for Grain
(1000 kilograms)
47
3849
120
11824
118
470
Soybeans for Beans
(1000 kilograms)
0
0
0
824
433
0
Hay (1000 Metric tons)
115
4.8
6.3
52
30
193
Cotton (1000 kilograms)
5282
14063
2539
51131
3355
7315
a
As listed In the Census of Agriculture 1969 [USCB69] .
b
Values listed for zones 1+2+8 are totals for Eddy County.
1 hectare = 104 m2 = 0.01 km2.
53
-------
The fourth zone includes the Texas counties of Midland and Ector.
The principal towns are Midland and Odessa, The percent of farm land
irrigated is only 1.2%. This irrigated water is most likely from ground
water sources. Zone 4 has the highest population of 157,237 in 1970.
Additionally the population density is the greatest, with .32 people
per hectare.
Zone 5 includes the Texas counties of Andrews, Gaines, Terry and
Yoakum. The principal towns are Andrews, Seminole, and Brownfield.
The population density is .036 people per hectare. This zone has only
73% of its land area in farms but a high of 17% for all the zones is
irrigated farm land. The principal crop of the zone is sorghum which
is used primarily for grain and seed.
The sixth zone includes exclusively Lea County of New Mexico. The
principal towns are Hobbs and Lovington. The population density is
only .04 people per hectare. Additionally Zone 6 has 83% of its land
area in farms.
Zone 7 is Chaves County of New Mexico. Roswell is the principal
town in the zone- The population density is .027 people per hectare.
Zone 8 is a corridor along the Pecos River within Eddy County,
consisting of the river bed, irrigated land and directly associated
land. This is taken as 60,000 hectares, somewhat less than three times
the area of irrigated land listed in Table 5-4. Zone 8 includes the
cities of Artesia and Carlsbad, and most of the population in Eddy
County. This zone is set up because of the concentrated belt of irri-
gated land, much of which is in the general direction of ground-water
flow from the repository area.
From this discussion it is seen that in the zones surrounding the
repository, agriculture is the predominant activity, with few large
urban areas. The population projections imply that the population mix
between the zones will remain relatively constant over time. Thus
development of large metropolitan centers in the zones is not expected;
most likely a predominant role will continue to be played by agriculture.
54
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Chapter 6
IMPLEMENTATION OF MODEL; BASE CASE
The base case is the primary vehicle used here for implementing
the AMRAW model and computer code to the terminal storage phase at a
reference high level waste repository. The reference site, described
in Chapter 5, is in the Los Medanos area in southeastern New Mexico,
with thick deposits of bedded salt. It should be emphasized again that
this site was chosen for study purposes to aid in development and demon-
stration of AMRAW, and does not represent present planning for the area.
It is expected that there will ultimately be as many as six repositories
in the United States for commercial high level waste; whether commercial
waste will or will not be included in a repository at the Los Medafios
site is not known. The study region surrounding the reference site is
divided into the eight geographic zones shown earlier in Fig. 5-6.
The base case is run in the probabilistic distribution mode in
which several geologic disturbance events are considered: severe earth-
quake, volcanism, meteorite impact, and surface erosion. Potential
releases to four environmental receptors (air, land surface, surface water,
and ground water) are calculated for the 25 most significant selected
radionuclides. Calculations use 50 times over a range of one million
years. Dose rates to 8 human organs (including total body) are calculated.
In Chapter 7, other cases are described in which discrete events
are assumed at various times and the consequences are evaluated. In
Part 2 of this volume, applications of AMRAW to repository operations and
ground surface storage phases of waste management are presented and an
initial demonstration is given for application of AMRAW to another geo-
logic setting (in shale).
The following sections in this chapter describe the input data pre-
paration for the Source Term, Release Model, and Environmental Model
components of AMRAW-A.
55
-------
A. SOURCE TERM (INVENTORY AT RISK)
Assessment of potential releases from a radioactive waste reposi-
tory and the consequences of releases requires a definition of the quan-
tity of waste present, the concentrations of significant radionuclides,
and the variation of these concentrations with time due to radiodecay.
While present plans by ERDA at the Los Medanos site involve only pilot
, plant studies with TRU waste and experimental emplacement of high level
waste, the purpose of this EPA study is to assess a full-scale repository.
It is therefore assumed for study purposes that the Los Medahos site
becomes a repository for high level waste. It is further assumed as a
conservative case that all high level waste generated from fuel repro-
cessing goes to the one repository. It is expected that several reposi-
tories will eventually come into use, dividing the waste load, and
reducing the risk from any one site.
The accumulated inventory in the assumed repository depends upon
two time-dependent major factors: 1) expansion of nuclear power, ana
2) the types of reactors and fuel cycles in the mix. Projections for
both of these factors are changing, with the result that the projected
quantities and compositions of waste are also changing.
1. Repository Size. The underground repository area is assumed to
2
be 10 km , equivalent to a square 3.2 km on a side or a circular area
with a 1.8 km radius. As shown shortly, this area is adequate for a
range of nuclear power projections. The moderately low growth case pre-
pared in 1975 and used for the ERDA Technical Alternatives•Document
[ERDA76] assumed growth to 800 GWe nuclear operating capacity by the year
2000, projecting further to 920 GWe in the year 2002, as listed in Table
6 - 1• The reference time used in this and other tables has zero arbi-
trarily corresponding to year 1972 for operating power capacity, and
accumulated fuel reprocessing or spent fuel (1982 for 10 y old waste from
reprocessing). The corresponding accumulated fuel reprocessing after
30 y is 187,000 MT. The low growth case projected in 1977 [Ax77] stretches
out the increase in nuclear power capacity (Table 6-1). However, as
indicated in Table 6-2, the accumulated spent fuel for this case reaches
187,000 MT at a reference time of 39 y, or 9 y beyond the previous case.
56
-------
Table 6-1. Projected Nuclear Operating Capacity, GWe
Reference timea
years
1975 Moderately Law
LWR HTGR
Growth
LMFBR
b
Case
TOTAL
1977 Low Growth
(LWR Only)
TOTAL
0
13.7
0.0
0.0
13.7
14.6
5
51.3
0.3
0.0
51.6
51.2
10
112.7
1.1
0.0
113.8
82. 3
15
225.6
11.1
0.3
237.0
153.2
20
382.7
35.2
1.1
419.0
227.0
25
547.6
64.3
26.1
638.0
322.1
30
688.4
90.5
141.1
920.0
402.9
35
462.6
40
509.3
3 A reference time of 0 y corresponds to year 1972.
b From Blomeke [Bk76] and ERDA-76-43 [ERDA76I.
C From Alexander et al. (Ax77].
-------
Table 6-2. Projections of Accumulated Fuel
Reprocessing or Spent Fuel
1975 Moderately Low Growth Case ^
Accumulated Fuel Reprocessing, MT
1977 Low Growth Case
Accumulated LWR Spent Fuel,
Reference time
years
LWR
HTGR
LMFBR
TOTAL
TOTAL
0
0
0.0
0.0
0
5
5.00
E2d
1.4
0.0
5.01
E2
3.19
E3
10
9.00
E3
1.25 El
0.0
9.01
E3
9.84
E3
15
2.69
E4
9.01 El
1.63 El
2.70
E4
2.16
E4
20
5.84
E4
5.41 E2
5.74 El
5.90
E4
4.11
E4
25
1.09
E5
1.87 E3
3.77 E2
1.11
E5
6.93
E4
30
1.79
E5
4.14 E3
3.75 E3
1.87
E5
1.07
E5
35
1.51
E5
40
2.00
E5
a A reference time of 0 y corresponds to year 1972 for fuel reprocessing and spent
fuel, and year 1982 for 10 y old waste from reprocessing.
L_
From Blomeke [Bk76] and EBDA-76-43 [ERDA76]. Metric tons at rated load equivalent.
c From Alexander et al. [Ax77].
^5.00 E2 represents 5,00 x 10^.
-------
The first of the above projections is used here for the reference
repository inventory, noting that the lower growth rate case reaches the
same reprocessing load after an additional 9 y accumulation, assuming
the spent fuel accumulation for the low growth case is ultimately repro-
cessed. The total accumulation of high level waste in the repository
is therefore assumed to be from reprocessing of 187,000 MT of spent fuel.
This total requires 62,500 canisters at approximately 3.0 MT per canis-
ter [Bk76]. For this loading, the average heat generation for 10-year
old waste is about 4 kw per canister. Assuming a permissible heat load
of 370 kw/hectare [ORNL70] at the time of emplacement and 24 m row spac-
ing (6 m wide rooms and 18 m pillars), the minimum spacing in rows be-
comes 4.5 m (use 5.0 m). Areal density is then 83.3 canisters/hectare
2 2
or 8330 canisters/km ; this corresponds to 7.5 km for all of the canis-
ters. Allowing for ineffectively used areas, the assumed area of 10
km^ stated earlier is adequate for this waste quantity. The above values
3 3
are based upon 0.057 m /MT (2.0 ft /MT) for the solidified waste [QRNL701.
The expected volumes may run as high as 0.94 m^/MT (3.3 ft^/MT), in which
case larger-diameter canisters and/or closer spacing in rows can be used
with no change in the total heat load or repository size.
2. Waste Inventory Input for AMRAW. As described above, the 30 y
accumulation period for the moderately low growth case is approximately
equivalent to slightly less than 40 y accumulation for the low growth
case.' The former includes about 2% of the total each from the HTGR
(High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactor) and the LMFBR {Liquid Metal Cooled
Fast Breeder Reactor). While the future of both of these reactor types
is uncertain, the relatively small contribution to the total waste inven-
tory does not greatly affect the waste composition.
Computer printout was obtained [Bk76] for: 1) accumulation of 10-
year old waste during a 30-year period, and 2) decay of the total accumu-
lation for a period up to one million years. This data is a blend of
ORIGEN output for each of the several reactor types and fuel loadings,
obtained at Oak Ridge using the auxiliary computer codes: WASPR for
compressing ORIGEN output and KWIKPLAN (Sill] for superimposing numerical
values according to projected increases in capacities of several reactor
types. Among the fission products, all H, Kr, arid Xe are assumed to be
59
-------
released from the high level waste stream. Most of the I and Br leaves
this waste stream but 0.1% is assumed to be retained, along with 100%
of all other fission products. Among the heavy metal isotopes, 0.5% of
the U and Pu and all of the other heavy metals are assumed to be in high
level waste. C-14 is not a fission product but it is produced in LWR
fuel by neutron irradiation of N-14, an impurity in the oxide fuel.
AMRAW uses as input the grams of each significant nuclide at each time
of interest. Activity in curies is obtained by multiplying by the cor-
responding specific activities.
The waste transportation and repository operations branches of the
systems model, when implemented, require waste inventory data for the
accumulation period. The terminal storage branch, currently implemented,
uses data for the subsequent decay of the accumulated inventory. It is
desirable to reference both categories of time to a common starting or
"zero" time, as indicated in Table 6-2. Also, it is desirable to use
smaller increments of time in the AMRAW calculations than used for the
ORIGEN output. This adjustment to a common reference time, interpolation
for intermediate values and formulating for AMRAW input, is best done
with an auxiliary computer program. A cubic spline technique is adopted
for this purpose.
Cubic spline functions are a recent methematical development and
provide an excellent method for curve fitting. Basically, the technique
involves interpolation by cubic splines such that a cubic polynominal
function is formulated between each pair of data points. Coefficients
are chosen so that the second derivative is continuous across adjacent
points,
A cubic spline curve fitting computer program developed by Moler
(The University of New Mexico Mathematics Department) and Malcolm was
obtained [Fr77] and slightly modified for adjustment of nuclide concentra-
tion data. Appendix B lists input and the output is included in Appendix
J. Table B- 1 lists the input obtained from ORNL data [Bk76] for the
selected radionuclides. The corresponding spline fit (Appendix J) results
for the 50 selected times.
A screening process [Lo74b] was applied to eliminate from consider-
ation the many radionuclides which make negligible contributions to
60
-------
risk, and to thereby select the most significant radionuclides over a
time range of 1 year to one million years after irradiation. The ori-
ginally selected nuclides included 10 fission product isotopes of 8
elements and 16 actinide and daughter isotopes of 7 elements. The se-
lection criteria applied is to select the 3 fission product elements and
3 actinide and daughter elements during each time interval over the full
time range of interest which comprise the greatest contribution to the
total ingestion or inhalation radiotoxic hazard measure for the waste
mixture. The latter is defined [C&75] as the ratio of activity in Ci
to the most restrictive RCG (Radiation Concentration Guide, Table II
3
10CFR20) values in Ci/m . The selection criteria then selects the iso-
topes of each selected element which comprise at least 99% of the hazard
for the element. In the current study, waste with a minimum age of 10 y
is considered. Radionuclides Ru-106f Cs-134, and Ce-144 have a rela-
tively insignificant hazard contribution after 10 y and are therefore
deleted from the original selection. Because of special environmental
interest, the activation product C-14 and the fission product 1-129 are
added. The net list of 25 selected significant radionuclides is given
in Table 6-3, and is the basis for the mass tabulations in Appendices B
and J.
61
-------
Table 6-3. Selected Significant Radionuclides
Fission products;
C-143 Sr-90 Sr-93 Tc-99 1-129 Cs-135
Y-90 Nb-93m Cs-137
Heavy metals;
Thorium
Series
Cm-244
Pu-240
Neptunium
Series
Pu-241
Am-241
Np-237
Th-229
Ra-225
Uranium
Series
&m-242m
Cm-242
Pu-2 38
Th-2 30
Ra-226
Pb-210
Actinium
Series
Am-243
Np-239
Pu-239
The activation product C-14 is included with fission products
62
-------
B. RELEASE MODEL
Implementing the Release Model for the "base" case, or any other
release scenario, involves the determination of event probabilities
and release fractions for applicable release events and the parameters
for leaching by ground water. The following sections first describe
the application of Fault Tree Analysis to the model repository site
and then the application of ground water leaching calculations to
the site.
1. Extended Fault Tree Analysis. Geologic modeling is represented
by the Release Model section of the Systems Model. Fault tree analy-
sis is used to represent the various geologic and man-caused events
which may combine in various ways and result in release of radioactive
material from the waste repository. This technique, which is a system-
atic method for analyzing interrelated events, need not necessarily be
used. Any technique which combines events into sets may be used. The
environmental pathway analysis uses input concentrations in four
"receptors": air, land surface, surface water, and ground water. It
is convenient for calculation purposes to consider the releases from
the geologic formation during an interval of time to four corresponding
"preliminary environmental input receptors." Release to air represents
the initial ejection into an air suspension. Release to land surface
and surface water is the initial transport toward these areas, and
release to ground water is the transfer by leaching into ground water
at the point of ground water contact. Transport through the geospnere
to a point of usage is required before release to ground water becomes
an environmental input.
Each path through a fault tree which leads to a release represents
a set of conditions existing at a given time which together can permit
a release to occur. Each such path comprises a "cut set." All of the
cut sets can be represented by a series of probability factors. In
addition, each cut set has an associated release fraction representing
the intensity of the occurrence. Each probability factor, representing
some geologic condition or event, may be a function of time. Many
geologic processes can be assumed to have a constant probability of
63
-------
occurrence with time but other processes may vary with/ for example,
step, ramp, or exponential changes. Time-dependent probabilities may
be applied to accommodate increased uncertainties for events further
into the future. For example, a specific event may be established as
having a zero or low probability for some time into the future but
with increasing uncertainty and hence an increasing probability at
later times for risk assessment purposes. This flexibility to
represent the various events in a fault tree by time-dependent prob-
abilities is an extension of the fault tree technique which is usually
applied only with constant values for each component.
The Los Medanos site is under study because it is in a region
with predicted long-term stability. The region appears to have been
stable since Permian times (225 million years) and has thick deposits
of nearly horizontal bedded salt (Salado Formation). The Salado Forma-
tion in the vicinity of the model site is more than 500 m thick start-
ing at a depth of about 300 m. This formation consists primarily of
halite, and small amounts of anhydrite, polyhalite, and potassium
salts. The disposal horizon is assumed to be at a depth of 800 m,
near the base of the Salado. The Rustler Formation uncomformably
overlies the Salado Formation. This formation, approximately 150 m
thick, includes interbedded red and green sandy shale, interbedded
shale and dolomite, and local deposits of anhydrite and gypsum. Aquifers
in the Rustler are locally recharged directly by precipitation, have
very low flow, velocities and discharge into salt lakes and the Pecos
River about 20 km southwest of the study site. The Castile Formation
(anhydrite, >300 m thick) underlies the Salado, followed by the Delaware
Mountain Group. Formation water in this sequence of sandstone, shale
and limestone has sufficient hydrostatic pressure to rise through the
Salado should an open pathway develop. The transmissivity of the
deposits is extremely low, limiting the possible water transfer rates.
There are geological events of low probability, which could occur
to disrupt a repository. Also, there are man-caused events such as the
drilling of holes into a disposal zone. In the fault tree section of
AMRAW, estimated probabilities are assigned to the various combinations
of such events, along with associated fractions of waste inventory
64
-------
which might be released by these occurrences. Numerical input to
accomplish this is obtained with the aid of earth scientists in the
interpretation of regional and local geologic data. Where leaching by
ground water is involved, AMRAW calculates leach rates, using input
parameters also obtained with the aid of earth scientists.
Fault tree diagrams have been developed during this study for the
terminal storage phase at the Los Medanos site. Diagrams for potential
releases to air, land surface, surface water, and ground water are
shown in Pig. 6-1 through 6-4, respectively. Figures 6-5 through 6-7
show fault tree components which are repeated inputs to the main
branch diagrams. A general rule in fault tree analysis is that each
logic gate should have an event description. In Figs. 6-1 and 6-4, event
descriptors are omitted for a few gates to save space. It is appropriate
to first describe the component groups, and then proceed to discuss the
main diagrams.
(a) Volcanogenia Transport. Volcanogenic transport, detailed in
Fig. 6-5, consists of three mechanisms: 1) magma transport, 2) volatile
transport, and 3) hydrothermal transport. The first of these involves
movement of magma which pushes or entrains and carries repository waste
material to a shallower depth, to the surface, or in more extreme
cases, into the air. The second mechanism involves movement of
volcanic vent gases moving through fractures caused by mechanical dis-
ruption of strata or by heat effects, even though the repository is
not penetrated by magma. The third mechanism, hydrothermal transport,
represents deep ground water contacting magma or other existing hot
rock and being propagated upward as with a geyser. Inhibit gates
represent conditions which must be met before the event is considered
to contribute toward a release. Component probabilities have not been
determined and it appears that they are not needed because the
probability for the aggregate may be estimated.
The probability of a volcanic disturbance affecting a 10 square
kilometer repository at the model site is estimated by a two-step
process: 1} determination of the maximum rate of occurrence in the
Delaware Basin, and 2) modification by the fraction of the basin
associated with the repository.
There have been no volcanos in the Delaware Basin since formation
65
-------
RELEASE
TO AS R
¦OR" GATE
'AND" GATE
DIRECT
EXPULSION
EJECTED
X
ro
K»
©
X
>T
—
o
O
w
\ K» (
\ S
( JH
J( >\
)
EJECTED i
EJECTED
f
EXPULSIVE
EVENT
X
o
1
M
WASTE TRANSPORT
TOWARD SURFACE
O
X
3
o
SB
2C
"D
3>
ci
OFFSET
FAULTING
.
X
o
I
VQLCANOGENIC
TRANSPORT
a A
Zsi
EXPULSIVE
EVENT
X o
o
in z
O ri
WASTE TRANSPORT
TOWARD SURFACE
.k xio"'0
j OFFSET
faulting
denotes fault tree component n detailed on another diagram.
Numerical values are estimated annual probabilities of
occurrence.
Figure
6
-1.
Fault tree for release to air.
-------
o\
WASTE V
TRANSPORT
TO SURFACE!
WASTE
TRANSPORT
TO SURFACE
OEKUD!
N1
EXPOSED
TO SURFACE
-10
xlO
CD
o
SUFFICIENT
PRESSURE
o
GROUND
WATER
ARTESIAN
WATER
OFFSET
FAULTING
WATER
TRANSPORT
OFFSET
FAULTING
RELEASE TO
LAND SURFACE
VOLCANOGENIC
TRANSPORT
EXPOSURE
BY OFFSET
FAULTING
WASTE
TRANSPORTED
TO 5URFACE
SURFACE
REDUCED
TO WASTE
Figure 6 - 2.
Fault tree for release to land surface.
-------
RELEASE
TO
SURFACE WATER
SURFACE
WATER
SOURCE
NEW LAKE
x C<=
i/i —|-n
300
RELEASE TO
LAND SURFACE!
See Fig. 6-2
NEW FLOWING
SURFACE WATER
c
>V..9=?0
ALTERED T ALTERED
SURFACE SURFACE
WATER 1 WATER
FL0" Oflw o
ALTERED
SURFACE
WATER
FLOW
cmHl
ALTERED V
SURFACE
WATER
FLOW ^~VL0V
ALTERED
SURFACE
WATER
¦x m
"u H
> m
o o
—i -X>
r>
5>
cz ~v
-v m
r- —
— PD
-n o
•H O
Figure 6-3.
Fault tree branch for release to surface water.
-------
RELEASE TO
GROUND WATER
FAULTS
INTERCONNECTING
AQUIFERS
PENETRATION
CONNECTION
EXPOSED SALT
TO AQUIFER
BY OFFSET
FAULTI NO
GROUND
MATER
PRESENT
NOT
HEALED
o
FAULTING
GROUND
WATER
SOURCE
BLOCKAGE
o
CONNECTED
o
o
V w
m r~
> cr
o z
5P O
iA O
IA
X
o
NEW
GROUND
WATER
z 0
m "
S*
2 O
crs z
OJ
a
2:
en
GROUND
WATER
EXISTING
-4
O
Figure 6 — 4.
Fault tree for release to ground water.
-------
8.1x10*" 8.lxl0~12
nA A
VOLCANOGENIc
TRANSPORT
VOLATILE
TRANSPORT
MAGHA
TRANSPORT
WTT5*
z
UJ
X
UJ UJ
(->
— «
O _l
HYDROTHERMAL
TRANSPORT
WTTS
o
: <
; ^
0
<
x.
¦'WTTS = WASTE TRANSPORT TOWARD SURFACE, FOR
= WASTE TRANSPORT TO SURFACE, FOR /£\
Figure 6-5. Fault tree component for
volcanogenic transport.
70
-------
t.4 x!0~7 J,« xlO-8 1.4 xto"10
•C. (INHIBIT CONDITION) »
WASTE TRANSPORT TOWARD SURFACE, FCR(
WASTE TRANSPORT TO SURFACE, FOr/\
SALT EXPOSED TO AQUIFER, FOR
OFFSET
FAULTING
REACTIVATE
OLD FAULTS
GENERATE
NEW FAULTS
o
0 0
0 0
m
X
—1 OB
m 5>
z c>
m v»
£
~ m CD
£ — 1/1
Z2 73 —-
<
o —
r- 3C _
o c, C.
> fn >
— z
o
z
o o
_ er>
m =£
^ z
— m
o
Z O -H
— —i m
%J% ~~ -X3
3E C3
^ 2
m
x
m >
z
-------
Ground
Ground
Water
Near
Site
Ground
Water
Near
Site
Ground
Water
Near
Site
Ground
Water
Near
Site
Ground
Water
Near
Site
0
•H
M
o
d> a
•m e
Q> M
X
Oi
o
c
0)
TJ
¦H
w
E
Eft
-H
c
rrl
U
»-t
o
>
Figure 6 - 7.
Fault tree component for
new ground water.
72
-------
during Permian time, though there have been some dike emplacements
about 30 million years ago (no published reference available)• Assuming
the "rate" in the future is no greater than in the past, and using a
nominal age of 200 million years for the basin, the volcanism prob-
ability is estimated by Kudo [Ku76] to be 5 x 10"^ per year in the
Delaware Basin. Appendix c considers the small fraction of the
Delaware Basin represented by the repository and estimates the prob-
ability for volcanogenic transport of waste to the surface to be
< 8.1 x 10 12 per year. This is based upon a 10-km2 repository with
a 4 km radius "volcanism effect zone" (Fig. 6-8) • This assumes the
average diameter of area affected by a volcano is 2.2 km and that the
envelope of tangency to the repository represents the effect zone. It
can be expected that less severe events such as dike emplacement may
occur and transport material to a shallower depth instead of to the
surface. Considering the earlier observation that there have been
some dike emplacements about 30 million years ago while no volcanos
have occurred in over 200 million years, it appears reasonable to assume
that the probability of transport merely to a shallower depth is a
factor of 10 greater than for transport to the surface, violent vol-
canic events such as volcanic explosions or diatremes, which would
expel material into the atmosphere, are estimated by Kudo [Ku76] to
occur at 0.3 times the rate of the basic volcanogenic transport events,
or 2.4 x 10"12 per year. These values are used for the diagrams in
Figs. . 6-1 through 6-3. The probabilities stated above represent the
probabilities of activities within the "volcanism effect zone" in
Fig. 6-8. Within this zone, the expected value of the area of inter-
section by the volcanic process is determined in Appendix C to be 15
percent of the repository area for a volcano, and 1.2 percent for a
diatreme. Also discussed in Appendix C are considerations of global
Plate tectonics. When further work on this concept is completed by
geologists, it may be possible to reduce the probabilities from those
used in this study. Further, a time-dependent probability may be
defined which takes on finite or increased values only after some period
of time.
In the absence of available information, the fraction of waste in
73
-------
/
VOLCANO
VOLCANO
DIATREME
WASTE
REPOSITORY
10 km^
\
VOLCANISM EFFECT ZONE
1 km
Figure 6-8. Volcanic interception of waste repository.
-------
the intersected area transported to an exposed position is conserva-
tively taken to be half of the affected inventory. It can be expected
that some of the material in the repository horizon will be entrained,
some will be carried only a short distance but much will be merely
pushed aside by penetrating magma. On this basis, the fraction of
repository inventory transported by a volcanogenic event becomes
0.15 x 0.5 = 0.075 for the volcano and 0.012 x 0.5 - 0.006 for the
diatreme. Actually, much of any such transported material would remain
in a buried configuration, or if exposed, would involve delay for
leaching before becoming available for biological uptake. It is there-
fore suggested that the assumptions and estimates used here are con-
servative.
(b) Offset Faulting. Factors causing offsets by faulting are de-
tailed in the fault tree component diagram in Fig. 6-6 and include the
mechanisms of: 1) basin extension if it were to occur, 2) epeirogenic
uplift, 3) subsidence, and 4) voleanism. These can lead to reactiva-
tion of old faults or generation of new ones, with a much higher prob-
ability assigned to reactivation of old faults. Secondly, another
mechanism for producing offsets is to reactivate old faults by injection
of water for secondary recovery of oil. As with volcanism, it does not
appear necessary to predict each contributing event if a means is at
hand to predict the aggregate occurrence. The aggregate probability
for offset faulting sufficiently severe to fracture the bedded salt
formation and interconnect upper and lower aquifers {Fig.6-9) is
estimated by Sanford, as described in Appendix D, to be 1.4 x 10~7 per
year (output 3 in Fig. 6-6, and input 3 in Figs. 6-1 and 6-4).
Fractures extending to the surface and offsets large enough to repre-
sent transport of waste toward the surface involve progressively lower
probabilities than this basic value. As discussed in Appendix D, the
probability for extension to the surface is conservatively taken as
one order of magnitude lower (output 4 in Fig. 6-6 and input 4 in
Fig. 6-2 ) and the probability for sufficient offset to expose a
significant section of bedded salt to an aquifer is assumed to be at
least three orders of magnitude lower (output 5 in Fig. 6-6, and
input 5 in Fig. 6-1, 6-2, and 6-4).
75
-------
SURFACE
CT>
XX2
FAULT
UPPER AQUIFER
DISPOSAL FORMATION
DISPOSAL HORIZON
LOWER AQUIFER
Figure 6 - 9. Interconnection of aquifers by offset faulting.
-------
(a) New Ground Water, The generalized category of new ground
water, Fig. 6-7 (input 6 in Fig. 6-4), reflects altered hydrologic
conditions. This can be changed quantities, velocities and directions
of flow caused by effects from a number of potential events. These
events are quite complex in nature. Data is not available at this
time for numerical implementation in AMRA.W. This can be studied by
parametric runs of the code for various altered hydrologic conditions.
For example, the "new ground water" event can be set to a probability
of unity and hydrologic input data provided for the correspondingly
higher velocity or other changed conditions.
Next, consider the main fault tree diagrams which include the
component groups discussed above.
(d) Release to Air. The most prominent member of the fault tree
branch for release to air, Fig. 6-1, is direct expulsion due to
meteorite impact or violent volcanic activity. The probability of
meteorite impact on a 10-km2 repository sufficient to exhume material
from the disposal horizon is estimated in Appendix E to be 1 x 10~13
per year. The fraction of inventory released by such an event is
conservatively estimated in Appendix E to be 5 percent to the air and
5 percent directly to land surface in the vicinity. Expulsion by
volcanism was discussed earlier. Two other members of the fault tree
in Fig. 6-1 express combinations of processes which first transport
the waste to a shallower depth, followed by an expulsive event less
severe than that required from the original depth.. It may be seen
that multiplication of annual probabilities in the AND gate in these
cases leads to an estimated annual probability of 3 x 10 22 or less,
which is an almost non-existent potential for such combined processes.
(e) Release to Land Surface. Release to the land surface, Fig.
6-2 , involves either carrying waste material to the surface or re-
ducing the surface by erosional processes to expose the waste. Material
released to the surface is assumed to be apportioned between land and
surface water according to their respective area fractions in the
region considered. Volcanogenic transport and meteorite impact have
low probabilities for occurrence discussed earlier. Insufficient data
is available to evaluate the other processes. The conditions do not
77
-------
appear to be present to cause salt diapirism; offset sufficient to
expose the disposal horizon at the surface is considered to be ex-
ceedingly improbable (inhibit gate much less than unity). Erosion is
a likely process, but the rate is so slow that denuding the waste
horizon is not likely in less than one million years. This is dis-
cussed in Appendix E.
(f) Release to Surface Water. The fault tree branch for release
to surface water, Fig. 6-3, includes the release-to-surface diagram
discussed above, plus a fault tree member representing the presence
of surface water either existing or which may come into existence at
some time in the future.
(g) Release to Ground Water. Combinations of conditions leading
to disruption of the repository and release of material by leaching
to ground water, Fig. 6-4, are generally considered to be more probable
than the more drastic events which release material to the surface or
into the air, as indicated by the event probabilities presented
earlier. This involves faulting which interconnects aquifers (as
illustrated in Fig. 6-9), an offset fault severe enough to present
the disposal horizon to an aquifer (very unlikely), or a man-caused
penetration. In each case, presence of ground water is a necessary
AND gate condition. It should be noted that an output from this fault
tree does not represent an instantaneous release but instead indicates
the start of a slow leaching process into circulating ground water.
The leaching'implementation is described later in this section. Data
has not yet been acquired to evaluate man-caused penetration connections.
It should be noted that any single hole drilling incident relates to
only a very small fraction of the total repository inventory.
(h) Summary of Release Scenarios Implemented. Each path through
a fault tree which leads to release represents a set of conditions
existing at a given time which together can permit a release to
occur. Each such path is called a "cut set." To illustrate, Fig.
6-10 shows the elements for one cut set in the fault tree branch for
release to ground water. This is one of the cut sets used as input
to AMRAW at this time for demonstration of the application to the
Los Medanos site. The 10 cut sets implemented at this time, their
78
-------
Release to
Ground Water
I
a*
tj c
C
P 4> 4-1
O -*J W
^ nJ-H
O £ X
M
•H X
O
W A
«
D
Faulting
H
«-4
NO
Blockage
Not
Healed
Ground Water
Source
Ground
Water
Present
Faults
Interconnecting
Aquifers
Figure 6-10
Sample cut set for release
to ground water.
79
-------
Table 6-4. Summary of Release Scenarios Included in Base case
CUT SET
RELEASE TO RECEPTOR
EVENT
ANNUAL PROBABILITY
ESTIMATED RELEASE
FRACTION
FUNCTION
ESTIMATED VALUE
1
Air
(see Fig. 6-1.)
Direct Expulsion by
meteorite impact
Constant
1 x 10"13
0.05
2
Air
Direct expulsion by
volcanic explosion
Constant
2.4 x 1CT12
0.075
3
Air
Direct expulsion by
diatreme
Constant
2.4 x 1CT12
0.006
4
Land Surface
(see Fig. 6-2 .)
Surface reduced to
waste by erosion
Ramp
0.0 for
t<1.6xl06y?
(t-1.6xl06) x
1.56x10"7
for t>1.6xl05y
a3.3 x 10~5
5
Land Surface
Transport to surface
by meteorite impact
Constant
1 x 10~13
0.05
6
Land Surface
Volcanogenic transport
to surface
Constant
8.1 x 10-12
0.075
7
^Surface Water
(see Fig. 6-3 ) .
Surface reduced to
waste by erosion
Ramp
0.0 for
t1.6x!06y
a3.3 x 10"5
-------
Table 6-4. Sunmary of Release Scenarios Included in Base Case (continued)
CUT SET
RELEASE TO RECEPTOR
EVENT
ANNUAL PROBABILITY
ESTIMATED RELEASE
FRACTION
FUNCTION
ESTIMATED VALUE
8
Surface Water
Transport to surface
by meteorite impact
Constant
1.0 X 10"13
o
4
o
9
Surface Water
Volcanogenic transport
to surface
Constant
8.1 X 10~12
0.075
10
Ground Water
(see Fig. 6-4 .)
Faulting; not sealed,
interconnecting
aquifers
Constant
1.4 x 10~7
¦^Calculated
leach rates
Notes: aRelease fraction for exposure by erosion assumes vertical canisters eroded at same annual rate
as land surface.
^The release to surface water corresponds to the same cut sets as for release to land surface
plus the presence of surface water.
cThe release fraction for release to ground water is the inventory fraction leached per year,
as calculated by function RLEACH under subroutine FAULT in AMRAW.
-------
overall annual probabilities and inventory release fraction (if
event occurs) are summarized in Table 6-4. All of the overall prob-
abilities listed are constant over time except the erosion event which
is represented by a ramp function. The exposure by erosion listed
for land surface and surface water does not lead here to a release
within one million years, but it is used to illustrate input of a
ramp function probability (see Appendix E). Input data for the
Release Model in AMRAW may be submitted as simply one factor (the over-
all probability) for each cut set. For the base case demonstrated
here, most of the cut sets are represented by several factors (see
input data in Appendix J). For example, in Fig. 6-10, the overall
probability for the release to ground water is represented by
P = (1)(1)(1)(1.4 x 10~7) (6-1)
where the unity factors respectively represent: "no blockage," "ground
water existing," and (fracture) "not sealed." Should these be deter-
mined to have a time dependence for non-unity values, AMRAW flexi-
bility is prepared to receive the more detailed data. Note at this
point that the fault trees serve primarily as devices for correlating
and displaying scenarios; once the AMRAW input probabilities are
determined, it makes no difference whether fault trees or some other
logic process was used.
2. Leaching by Ground Water. If access by ground water to the waste
deposit occurs (see Figs. 6-4 and 6-9), a gradual release by leaching
begins. In Section 3.C. of Vol. I a theoretical discussion of waste
deposit leaching is presented, in which Eq. 4-13 from Vol. I, repeated
below
L = r~ A (V k)1/2
p V o e
s
(t + i) erf (kt)1/2 + ^
1/2 -*t
TTk ' 6
(6-2)
represents the predictor equation for the cumulative amount of radioactive
species leached, L , in time interval t. The units of L correspond to
ir • P
that of A^, the initial total radioactivity of the species subject to
leaching at the time leaching begins.
82
-------
The derivation of the predictor expression (Eq. 6-2} is based on
a diffusion transport model [Gd74] that specifically considers diffusion
with concentration-dependent dissolution rate. Here, the implementation
of that model in AMRAW is discussed.
It is assumed that each waste canister has the dimensions 0.3 m in
diameter x 3 m high. Further assumptions include breaching of the
container by corrosion and disintegration of the exposed waste matrix
into ten cylindrical parts. The total surface area exposed thereby
4 2
corresponds to F = 4.38 x 10 cm , with the specimen volume equal to
5 S 3
V = 2.22 x 10 cm . In Eq. 6 - 2, V is the effective diffusivity for
s 2 e
the species in cm /d, k is the dissolution rate constant for the species
in d--*-, and t is the leaching time interval in days.
1/2
Clearly, Eq. 6-2 shows that the error function term erf(kt)
must also be evaluated before obtaining an explicit solution of L at
P
any time interval for a specific radionuclide. Mathematically, the
error function term has the form [Kr67]
(Jet)1/2 _^2
erf(kt)1,/2 = — f e dr, (6-3)
^ J
o
and its numerical evaluation can be an added computational burden. Be-
cause of the conputational nature of the AMRAW code itself, the predictor
relation {Eq. 6-2) is divided into two functions which comprise the
algorithm RLEACH. Firstly, at short time intervals, e.g. up to less
than one year, Eq. 6-2 reduces to
L = 2
P
K(f)1/2[(-f")t1/2]-
Secondly, for time intervals equal to or greater than one year, Eq. 6-2
becomes
L = -p A (10 k)1/2 (t + jA . (6-5)
p Vg o e \ 2k /
Equations 6-4 and 6-5 here correspond to Eqs. 3-15 and 3 - 16 ,
respectively, in Vol. I. Note that Eq. 6-5 above obtains from Eq. 6-2
1/2
since, for very long time intervals, erf(kt) approaches unity [Ab70,
83
-------
Kr67 ]. Thus, Eqs. 6-4 arid 6-5 are the equivalent of Eq. 6 - 2 , and
are used in AMRAW in estimating the cumulative amount of radionuclide
leached for all time; Eq. 6 - 4 is used in calculating L for leach time
P
intervals less than one year, and Eq. 6-5 for leach time intervals
equal to or greater than one year. (Example plots of calculations for
are presented later in this section.)
The leaching routine RLEACH in AMRAW uses Eqs. 6-4 and 6-5 to
calculate the predicted amount of radionuclide species released to solu-
tion for all time intervals in units of g and Ci. The latter unit ob-
tains from applying the specific activity factor (SPACT) and is used in
the ground water transport calculation (discussed in Section 3.D., Vol.
I). However, since most leaching data are reported in terms of mass leach
rates [Am72, B5.72, Gd74, Gv66, Me72, Me73, Ra72, Sm69] , the values in
grams calculated by Eqs.6-4 and 6-5 are then divided by the product
of the leach time interval in days (e.g. the interval 90 y - 100 y, or
10 x 365 d in the case of values calculated by Eq. 6-5) and the total
surface area exposed to obtain the incremental leach rates in units of
2
g/cm -d. Here, incremental leach rates are defined as leach rates cal-
culated for a particular radionuclide at a specific leach time interval
and do not include accumulated values at previous leach time intervals.
Results of incremental leach rates calculated are described later in this
section.
A total of 62,500 canisters are assumed distributed on a 5 m x 24 m
2
spacing within various sections of a 10-km repository area; the number
corresponds to an average arrangement of 250 rows of canisters, with
each row comprising 250. As discussed in the example leaching calcula-
tion in Section 4.C. of Vol. I, one row of canisters is assumed to be
subject to leaching at a time by a geologic faulting event. The leached
quantity, now ej^ressed as a fraction of inventory in the canister, is
then multiplied by the number of canisters assumed to be exposed by geo-
logic events (in this case 250), and subsequently expressed as a fraction
of total repository inventory. The example leaching calculational pro-
cedure in Section 4.C., Vol. I, also outlines this calculational sequence
as performed within AMRAW.
Estimation of the effective diffusivity Vis done using the Stokes-
84
-------
Einstein equation [Bi60] and is discussed in Section 3.C., Vol. I. Ap-
pendix J lists input data for the base case, and includes V values (in
2 e
cm /d) approximated for all radionuclides selected for study; the V
0
values aire under the variable name "DCl", and are also listed in Table
6-5. Subsequently the estimated Q is employed in determining the
e
dissolution rate constant k iteratively via a curve-fitting procedure..
The value of k is adjusted until the theoretically predicted profile
(e.g. L vs. t plot of Eq. 6-2) adequately coincides with the experi-
P
mentally measured leach data [Gd74]. Leach data from phosphate-glass
by Mendel and co-worker [Me72] is used in this iteration procedure.
Values of estimated k are listed in Appendix J under the variable name
"DRC" and also in Table 6 - 5.
Examples of leach rates calculated by the leaching routine RLEACH
in AMRAW are shown in Figs. 6- 11 and 6-12. Figure 6-11 represents
smoothed plots of Eqs. 6-4 and 6-5 for the cumulative amount leached
as a function of time for Pb-210, Ra-226, and Th-229, while Fig. 6-12
depicts the incremental leach rates for Sr-90, ana Cm-244. As
discussed earlier in this section, the procedure for obtaining the cal-
2
culated incremental leach rates in units of g/cm -d is to divide the
amount of radionuclide species leached in g for a specified leach time
interval by the product of the leach time interval (in d) and the total
2
surface area exposed (in this case 250 F cm ) ; the results of carrying
s
out this procedure are the plots shown in Fig. 6-12. in Fig. 6-11, it
is seen that Th-229 leaches more than either Ra-226 or Pb-210 at any
leach time interval. It should be pointed out that net radioactive
buildup and decay occurs simultaneously with the leaching process; thus,
although the estimated diffusivities of Th-229, Ra-226, and Pb-210 are
comparatively equal (refer to Table 6 - 5), the inventory of Th-229
available for leaching at various times is the greatest of the three,
followed by Ra-226 and Pb-210, as listed in the radionuclides in waste
source term in Appendix J. In Fig. 6-12, Sr-90 is shown to leach out
faster than Cm-244 depending both on differences in diffusivity and
inventory available for leaching.
85
-------
Table 6-5. Estimated Values of Effective Diffusivity
and Dissolution Rate Constant
Effective Diffusivity,
Dissolution Rate
Nuclide
V
cair/d
Constant, k, d~^
C-14
9.55
X
io-10
4.96
X
Kf3
Sr-90
1.64
X
io-8
2.90
X
io'2
Y-90
1.64
X
io"8
2.90
X
io~2
Zr-93
6.29
X
10~10
1.05
X
io~2
Nb-93m
6.91
X
io"10
1.11
X
io-2
Tc-99
1.23
X
10~9
2.86
X
io'3
1-129
9.52
X
io-10
4.95
X
io"3
Cs-135
1.99
X
io'8
3.14
X
-2
10
Cs-137
1.99
X
io"8
3. 30
X
io"2
Pb-210
9.39
X
io"10
2.75
X
io~3
Ra-225
7.71
X
io-10
4.46
X
ic~3
Ra-226
7.71
X
io"10
4.46
X
io"3
Th-229
6.64
X
io"10
1.08
X
io-2
Th-230
6.64
X
io"10
1.08
X
io-2
Np-237
7.51
X
0
H
1
o
r-i
4.38
X
io"3
Np-239
7.51
X
io"10
4.38
X
io"3
Pu-238
3.31
X
io"10
7.19
X
io-3
Pu-239
3.31
X
o
i
O
7.19
X
io-3
Pu-240
3.31
X
, -10
10
7.22
X
10~3
Pu-241
3.31
X
0
H
1
O
r-i
7.25
X
io-3
Am-241
8.12
X
io'10
2.49
X
!0~3
Am-242m
8.12
X
h->
O
1
H
O
2.49
X
10~3
toi-243
8.12
X
io"10
2.62
X
io-3
Cm-24 2
8.10
X
io"10
2.48
X
io~3
Cm-244
8.10
X
10~10
2.48
X
io"3
86
-------
Pb-210
600
Time, years
Figure 6-11. Calculated cumulative amount leached
plotted against time for Pb-210, Ra-226
and Th-229.
87
-------
Sr-90
200
1(00 600 800
Time, years
I 000
1200
Figure 6-12. Calculated incremental leach rate
plotted against time for Sr-90
and Cm-244.
88
-------
c. ENVIRONMENTAL MODEL
Implementing the Environmental Model requires input data for the
two parts: 1) Transport to Environment, and 2) Environment to Man
Pathways. The following sections describe each of these two parts in
turn.
1. Transport to Environment. This part of the Environmental
Model uses releases to the four preliminary input receptors from the
Release Model matrix and calculates the corresponding concentrations
in the environmental input receptors for each of the geographic zones.
Categories of input data required are for: 1) dispersion to zones,
2) interreceptor adjustment, and 3) conversion to concentrations.
(a) Dispersion to Zones, consider first, the dispersion of
a release to air to integrated air concentration and surface deposition
for each zone. That is, input data is needed for ZONALO. for air, and
ZONDEP for deposition allocation. See Fig. 4-8 in Vol. I. Several
air dispersion codes are available for this purpose. For this
implementation, output from the AIRDOS-II code [Mo75, Mo77b] was ob-
tained from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory [Mo77a]. Average New
Mexico meteorological data input for AIRDOS is listed in Table 6-6
[Mo77a]. Directional data was averaged and input as directionally uni-
form. The long term projection of AMRAW calculations does not justify
a non-uniform wind rose. AIRDOS output for a unit pulse or acute release
(1 pCi) was obtained for three 20 x 20 grids: 80, 200, and 400 square
km. The grids were superimposed on the region and zone map and
the area weighted averages for the integrated air concentration and
ground concentration from air deposition were calculated for each zone.
The reader is referred to Section 4.D-1 of Volume I for a discussion of
integrated air concentration. The integrated concentration, Ci-y/cm3,
from passage of a contaminated plume following an acute release, in
Ci, is numerically equal to the equilibrium air concentration, Ci/cm3,
from a continuous or chronic release, in Ci/y. The resulting integrated
air concentration and air deposition factors, input to AMRAW, are listed
in Table 6-7. Also listed in this table are the land [USCB69] .and water
areas estimated for each zone and input to AMRAW. Data is not readily
available for water areas and volumes in this arid region. After study
89
-------
Table 6-6. Average New Mexico Meteorological Data
Input to AIRDOS Code
Average Air Temperature, °K - • - « 294.
Average Vertical Air Temperature Gradient, °K/nu
In Stability Class E 0.0728
In Stability Class F 0.1090
In Stability Class G • • • 0.1455
Rainfall Rate, in/y ....... 8.00
Height of Lid, in 2000.
Release Height, 5.
Fraction of time in each stability class:
Class A 0.0244
Class B .. ............. 0.1345
Class C 0.1274
Class D 0.2996
Class E 0.1378
Class P 0.2752
Class G 0.0
Wind speeds for each stability class, uniform
wind rose assumed, m/s:
Class A 1.70
Class B 2.07
Class C * i . 3»50
Class D 6.04
Class E 3.64
Class F 1.70
Class G 0.0
Deposition Velocity, cm/s 1.0
Scavenging Coefficient, 1/s 0.46E-05
90
-------
of maps, an estimate is made here that the average exposed water surface
is 0.25 percent of the area in the more arid zones, 0.5 percent in zones
with the Pecos River and reservoirs, and 9.0 percent in Zone 8 (con-
fined to a corridor along the Pecos River).
Consider next the dispersion of direct releases to land surface
and associated surface water. As discussed earlier, models for
dispersion of material transported to the surface, including ballistic
trajectory distributions are not well developed. In the absence of
a more detailed model, the simple 1/r2 dispersion allocation model
described in Appendix F is used, in which dispersion concentrates near
the site but some dispersion to all parts of the study region is
assumed. Further study of this may support a greater concentration
near the site with zero dispersion to the region extremities. Table
6-8 lists areas and the 1/r2 factors obtained for each zone in the
study region. The fraction of a release allocated to a zone is assumed
to be dispersed uniformly within the zone, in proportion to the
relative areas of each receptor (land and water) in the zone, also
listed in Table 6-8. The zone allocation factor for each receptor
and zone is then the product of the 1/r2 dispersion factor and the
respective receptor area fraction.
The retarded transport of radionuclides in ground water is
handled by the factor A2 (see Fig. 4-8, Vol, I) instead of by a zone
allotment factor. The input for this calculation is discussed in
later paragraphs of this section.
All of the ground water which flows slowly across the repository
is assumed to emerge and transfer to surface water in Zone 2 lakes and
ponds (20 percent) and in Zone 8 Pecos River (80 percent). The dip
of the strata in this region (see Section SB) causes the Rustler
Formation, containing the aquifer of interest, to surface in the
vicinity of the Pecos River. Accordingly, ADJl is input as 0.20 and
0-80 for Zones 2 and 8, respectively, and ADJ2 is input as 20 (no
delay in transfer).
Transfer of surface water from the Pecos River to land surface
f°r irrigation in Zone 8 involves an estimated annual usage of 0.6 ra
91
-------
ZONE
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
ONE
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Table 6 - 7. Integrated Air Concentration
and Air Deposition
AIR CONCENTRATION AIR DEPOSITION LAND AREA WATER AREA
Ci-y/ cm^Ci Ci/cm^Ci cm^ cm^
(ZONALO) (ZONDEP) (AREAG) (AREAW)
1.26E-20
4.04E-13
7.90E+11
0.0
5.31E-23
1.93E-15
1.01E+14
5.06E+11
5.09E-24
1.94E-16
2.27E+14
1.14E+12
2.12E-24
1.05E-16
4.77E+13
1.12E+11
3.83E-24
1.79E-16
1.22E+14
3.06E+11
3.03E-23
1.17E-15
1.14E+14
2.85E+11
3.18E-24
1.50E-16
1.57E+14
7.88E+11
3.12E-23
1.25E-15
5.46E+12
5.40E+11
Table 6-8. Dispersion Factors for Direct Releases
to Land and Surface Water
TOTAL
LAND
WATER
1/r
ALLOCATION FACTOR
(ZONALO)
AREA
AREA
AREA
DISPERSION
cm^
%
%
ALLOCATION, %
LAND
WATER
7.90E+11
100.
0.
12.9
1.29E-01
0.0
1.01E+14
99.5
0.5
43.3
4.31E-01
2.17E-03
2.28E+14
99.5
0.5
9.2
9.15E-02
4.60E-04
4.78E+13
99.75
0.25
0.9
8.68E-03
2.18E-05
1.22E+14
99.75
0.25
3.6
3.59E-02
9.00E-05
1.14E+14
99.75
0.25
24.3
2.42E-01
6.08E-04
1.58E+14
99.5
0.5
4.2
4.18E-02
2.10E-04
6.00E+12
91.0
9.0
1.6
1.46E-02
1.44E-03
7.78E+14
100.0
92
-------
of water on the 22 x 103 hectares of irrigated land (see Section 5.C.).
Pecos River flow varies over a wide range; it is assumed in this study
that the average flow rate through this region is double the average
irrigation withdrawal rate. Hence, ADJ1 for transfer of surface water
to land surface is 0.50 (and ADJ2 is 20 for step function).
The transfer rate for the above is treated as being rapid, repre-
sented by a step function because there is no delay. Slower transfers
such as involving leaching or surface erosion would not permit the
maximum transfer to be completed within a time increment, particularly
for short time increments. It is for such conditions that the trans-
fer rate constant, ADJ2, is provided in AMRAW-
Because of the low rate of rainfall, transfer by wash-off from
land to surface water is not evaluated for the application.
(b) Interreaeptor Adjustment. After the initial dispersion to
receptors in each zone, adjustment for transfer to each receptor in a
given zone from each of the other receptors in that zone is calculated by
G = E |l-exp(-0.5 F At) (6-6)
m m j_ m J
where E (designated ADJ1 in AMRAW) is input data representing the
m
maximum fraction of the radionuclide inventory in one receptor which
can be transferred (< 1.0), F (ADJ2 in AMRAW) is a transfer rate
— m
constant, and the average time for transfer of portions of the inventory
(average of transfer to the beginning and to the end of the time incre-
ment considered) is one-half of the time increment At (DELTE in AMRAW).
If the rate constant is large (0.5 F At > 15), a step function G = E
m mm
is used. As mentioned in vol. I, Section 4.d.1» transfer from air to
the land and water surface by deposition is handled directly in the
initial dispersion, as the process only involves a few days. Only a few
L
of the many potential transfers in Fig. 4-9, Vol. I, are involved for
this application. Data is input for the following assumed transfers:
1. Resuspension from land surface to air in all zones.
2. Ground water intercepting the site geometry discharges 0.20 fraction
to surface water in Zone 2 and 0.80 to Zone 8 (Pecos River).
3. Surface water in Zone 8 has fraction of 0-50 transferred
annually for irrigation to land surface in Zone 8.
93
-------
A resuspension factor expresses the ratio of average air concentra-
tion above a ground surface to the concentration on the ground surface.
The value used here is 100 times the generally used U.S. average/ or
1 x 10" 7 m_1 (1 x 10 9 cm-1}, to account for the less consolidated
nature of desert soil. Gera reports [Ge75] a somewhat higher value for un-
disturbed Nevada desert: 7 x 10 7 m -1. The constant ADJ1 is set equal to
the resuspension factor. ADJ2 is arbitrarily set at 20, a value which
causes a fast rise time for the exponential and provides a constant re-
suspended fraction. In fact, for this value of ADJ2, the exponential is
bypassed, giving a true step function.
(a) Conversion to Concentrations. The adjusted radionuclide
activities in each zone are converted to concentrations using appropriate
dispersion areas and volumes. The dispersion parameter DISPN (see Fig.
4-10, Vol. I) for air is set within AMRAW to unity to avoid altering air
values which already are concentrations. For land surface, the values
are listed as AREAG in Table 6-7 (AMRAW obtains AREAG from input values
of DISPN). For surface water, DISPN is the estimated water volume in
each zone. The average water depth is assumed to be 100 cm, except in
zone 8 where average Pecos River volume in Eddy County (including reser-
voirs) is taken as double the annual irrigation usage (0.6 m water on
22 x 103 hectares of irrigated land). For ground water, DISPN is set
equal to a quantity called GNDDIS (ground dispersion), related to ground
water velocity and aquifer dimensions, described later under Ground
Water Transport. The dispersed concentrations are obtained by dividing
each allocated release by the appropriate receptor area or volume.
(d) Environmental Decay. Data for evaluation of environmental
decay constants is sparse. The most conservative assumption is to use
values of zero, allowing removal by radiodecay only. For AMRAW calcula-
tions reported here, a very small token value is used (EDC = 2.30E-05),
representing an "environmental half-life" of 30,000 years (factor of 10
attenuation in 100,000 years). Appendix J lists the environmental decay
constants as "EDC," by zone, receptor, and nuclide. For ground water,
zero values are assigned because removal by sorption processes is
separately calculated within the ground water transport routine. For
air, complete deposition of material released to air occurs during the
release increment. To avoid carrying a residual in the air to a subse-
nnont time increment, EDC is set to an arbitrarily large value (50).
94
-------
(e) Ground Water Transport, In Section 4.D. of Vol. I a theo-
retical discussion of ground water transport is presented in which, for
a stable geologic isolation repository, the geologic medium itself
surrounding the repository can act to impede the rate of migration of
radionuclides through the geosphere to the biosphere if the preceding
barriers, including the low-leachable solid waste matrix (into which
the radioactive species are incorporated) become ineffective and leach-
ing occurs. In considering the migration of dissolved nuclides through
the geologic medium, complex physico-chemical interactions such as solid-
phase sorption, hydrodynamic dispersion, and diffusion [Br74] can act
to control the movement of the nuclides relative to the carrier fluid
(in this case water). These interactions cause the movement of nuclides
to be generally slower compared to the movement of the water, consequently
resulting in the reduction of releases to the biosphere [Bu76].
(1) Simplified Radionuclide Mass Transport Equation. As
discussed in Vol. I, a simplified version of the Duguid-Reeves
transport model for saturated--unsaturated flow in porous media [Re75]
is adapted in AMRAW to predict radionuclide concentrations in ground
water at points of usage or discharge to the surface. It is important
to list again the following major assumptions described in Vol. I as
simplification to the complex radionuclide mass transport and which
form an important basis for the simplified Duguid-Reeves model itself:
1) the porous medium is infinite, homogeneous, and isotropic with simple
boundary conditions; 2) porous region is fully saturated; 3) sorption
of the dissolved radionuclide species is governed by a linear relation-
ship; 4) mechanical dispersion is dominant over molecular diffusion;
5) chemical reactions are rapid such that instantaneous equilibrium
exists between the dissolved and sorbed constituents; 6) fluid flow is
uniform and steady; 7) the major flow component is parallel to the x-axis;
and 8) concentration of the radionuclide species in the soil region is zero
at time equals zero.
The simplified analytical solution to the Duguid-Reeves model
for one-dimensional flow with two-dimensional dispersion [ANS] which is
the basis of the ground water transport model employed in AMRAW to predict
radionuclide concentration at usage or emergence points, is obtained as
Eq, 4-84 in Vol. I, and is repeated as follows
95
-------
ki [ (x-k vnt)2 2 )
C => exp - \ . I + Tf—r > (6-7)
v t J k..v t k.v t \
p I 3 p 4 p J
ki= , m'>2/ k2s it k3 -4 iT (6"7a)
'T* d cl
41r(aLaT) V*a
*T M PKd
k4 - 4 - M' - - Rd = 1 + — - (6-7b)
d a
where C = radionuclide concentration in ground water at point of usage
or discharge, Ci/ta^,
M' = amount of particular radionuclide released by leaching during
a release time interval (M in Ci) divided by the thickness of
the aquifer in which the waste is released (z in m), Ci/m,
a
R, = retardation factor, dimensionless ,
d
K, = distribution coefficient, defined as the ratio of fraction of
d
amount of species that is sorbed on the solid medium per unit
mass of medium to amount of species remaining in the solution
per unit volume of solution (Eg. 4-71 of Vol. X), cm^/g,
3
p = solid medium bulk density, g/cm ,
e = porosity of solid medium, dimensionless,
v = pore or seepage velocity, m/d,
a = longitudinal disperaivity, m,
Xj
a,^ = transverse dispersivity, m
x * distance along aquifer to point of usage or discharge, m,
y = transverse distance from plume centerline, m,
t = time in the environment, d.
With these units used for the parameters listed above, the lumped para-
2
meters k^ -*¦ k^ will have the respective units: k^ in Ci/m , dimension-
less, and k^ and k^ both in m. Following calculation of concentration at
usage or emergence point, a decay factor (DECFAC) is applied to account
for radiodecay. This DECFAC factor and its application is discussed in
Section 4.D.l.e. and illustrated by a sample calculation in Section 4.D.I.
of Vol. I. The interpretation of the transverse distance y is discussed
in Appendix A of Vol. I and illustrated in the following paragraphs.
96
-------
Preliminary distances of 10 km (Zone 2) and 20 km (Zone 8) are used
in the calculations. The 10 km is a representative average distance
between the site and points of possible well withdrawal for use in Zone
2. Since the ground water is considered to surface at or before the
Pecos River, the portion of Zone 2 west of the river is not affected.
The primary entry of ground water to the river is at Malaga Bend, a
distance of about 25 km; a representative distance of 20 km is used to
average in some closer sections of the river.
(2) Ground Water Transport Data and Parameters. In the
very complex transport of radioactive nuclei through porous media it is
necessary to use sorption data and parameters obtained from sorption
measurements in the model site [Bu76, Rt73a] . To date, however, sorption
measurements have almost exclusively been carried out in the laboratory
[Bu76]. In order to generate solutions to the defining governing equa-
tions, it is likewise necessary to make assumptions about the data and
parameters, even though some of these assumptions could be quite restric-
tive [EPA75]. The minimum data base requirements upon which a transport
model can be developed vary from site to site [EPA75]. Table 6-9
gives the data being employed in the implementation of the transport
model. For conservation, ground water seepage velocity in initial cal-
culations [Ky75] is increased by a factor of six (as listed) to cover
uncertainty (see discussion of site hydrology in Section 5.B. of this
volume). The average solid porosity was taken from Hiss [Hi75]. The
average aquifer thickness is 100 m, but only the lower half of the for-
mation (50 m) is considered in the analysis. The value of the transverse
distance y in Eq. 6-7 which yields the average concentration across the
effective plume width, from Eq. 4-84c in Vol. I, is y = y^ = 2.08 (aTx) 2.
The corresponding effective plume width (width = 2y), where the concen-
tration drops to 0.1% of the centerline value, from Eq. 4-84d in Vol. I
ls y = 10.5 (ax) 2. Compared to the transverse dispersivity, a much
W
higher axial dispersivity is assumed, to account for the predominant bulk
fluid flow. Finally, as previously discussed, preliminary distances of
10 km and 20 km from the source to point of usage or discharge are used
in the ground water transport analysis.
A very important parameter in the transport analysis is the distri-
bution coefficient (K_), which is discussed in Section 4.D. in Vol. I.
d
97
-------
The Kj is a direct measure of the retention of the species on the porous
medium [Gf74, Gv66, Lv72]. Its determination depends on three primary
factors [Bu76], namely: 1) pH of the ground water, 2) concentration of
dissolved salts (e.g., sodium chloride), and 3) terr^perature of solution.
Table 6-9. Input Data and Parameters for
Ground Water Transport Model
Symbol
Physical Parameter
Estimated
Value
V
p
Seepage velocity [Ky75], m/d
4.00 x 10~3
IT
e
Porosity of porous media [Hi75], dimensionless
0.15
P
3
Solid bulk density, g/cm
2.3
Z
a
Aquifer thickness, m
50
yw
Effective plume width, m
Zone 2
Zone 8
2580
3640
yy
Transverse distance to average concentration, m
i
Zone 2
Zone 8
520
730
a
L
Axial dispersivity, m
50
T
Transverse dispersivity, m
6
X
Source to point of usage distance, km
Zone 2
Zone 8
10
20
In some cases the concentration of the dissolved nuclide itself may be
a significant factor [Bu76].
To date there is a dearth of experimentally-measured distribution
coefficients in the literature, except some proposed values as pub-
lished at Battelle [Rt73a, De73]. These values have been estimated for U.S.
western soil, but are applicable only to a non-salt geologic medium.
There has been some preliminary work [Bu75b, Ja74a, Ja74b, Rt74b] aimed
at considering the effect of salt (e.g. sodium chloride) on the migration
of nuclides from an underground waste disposal site. Two studies [Ja74b,
Rt74b] have proposed that ions present in the ground water (e.g. sodium
ions) can greatly affect the retardation factor Rd (also termed sorption
98
-------
equilibrium constant [Bu76, Ja74a]) for a specific radionuclide species.
It is anticipated that the presence of sodium ions in solution may de-
crease the retardation factor [Ja74a] , i.e. lower the K, also (Eq. 6-7b).
a
The published values for western soil [Rt7 3a] are used, but reduced by
30% as an approximate assumed compensation for salinity, in the ground
water transport analysis in AMRAW. These estimated values are listed
in Table 6-10 and also in Appendix J under the variable name "RKD."
In Table 6 - 10 a high K represents very strona sorption or retention
a
for a particular radionuclide, and conversely; T'n-230, for exaitple, with
K over 10,000 is very strongly sorbed, while Tc-99 (K near zero) is
d c
sorbed very poorly, if at all. Both Tc-99 and 1-129 can generally be
considered as simply moving with the ground water since their K, values
a
are near zero.
Table 6-10. Estimated Distribution Coefficients for
Selected Radionuclides
Distribution
Nuclide Number Nuclide Coefficient, cm /g
1
C-14
1
2
Sr-90
14
3
Y-90
1400
4
Zr-9 3
1400
5
Nb-9 3m
1400
6
Tc-99
~0
7
1-129
-0
8
Cs-135
140
• 9
Cs-137
140
10
Pb-210
2800
11
Ra-225
70
12
Ra-226
70
13
Th-229
10500
14
Th-230
10500
15
Np-2 37
10
16
Np-239
10
17
Pu-238
1400
18
Pu-2 39
1400
19
Pu-240
1400
20
Pu-241
1400
21
Am-241
1400
22
Am-24 2m
1400
23
Am-243
1400
24
Cm-242
420
25
Cm-244
420
99
-------
(3) Examples of Ground Water Transport Calculations. The
objective in the ground water transport calculations is to obtain the
average concentrations at points of water usage during each time incre-
ment. After the start of a leach incident, the accumulated quantity of
a radionuclide at the end of each time increment is calculated as a re-
lease to ground water transport at that time. Thus, the AMRAW calculations
consider a sequence of pulse releases. As each pulse moves downflow,
the concentration peak broadens in time by axial dispersion. Sensitivity
analysis runs on the ground water transport model, discussed in Section
7.A., show that when = 0, the width of the concentration peak, at half-
maximum at distances greater than a few kilometers from the repository
site generally is close to 2000 y. When values are non-zero, broaden-
ing of the concentration peak becomes more pronounced due to retardation
effects; this broadening increases with K^.
It is important to describe the procedure used in AMRAW (see Vol. I,
Section 4.D.) for estimating the average radionuclide concentration in
ground water at a specific point of usage or discharge. As presently
implemented, 50 times are used in AMRAW from the start of repository
operations up to one million years. Shorter time increments of 5, 10,
100, and 1000 y are used near the beginning and longer time increments
{10,000 and 100,000 y) are used later. For time increments up through
1000 y (e.g., between times of 2000 and 3000 y), the average radionuclide
concentration for each time increment is obtained by averaging the con-
centrations obtained from Eq. 6-7 at the beginning (e.g., 2000 y) and at
the end {e.g., 3000 y) of the time increment. For larger time increments
and low values of K,, this simple averaging procedure would be in error;
a
when time increments under consideration are 10,000 y or higher, the
narrow peaks associated with values near zero can be "missed." That
is, a peak passes through the location considered at some time within
the time increment and is not wide enough to result in a significant
calculated concentration at the beginning and/or end of the time incre-
ment. Hence, in AMRAW, each time increment of >. 10,000 y is subdivided
into 1000 y sub-intervals if K, < 1; for K > 1, each time increment 2.
J d d
100,000 y is subdivided into 20,000 y sub-intervals (allowed by broader
peaks when >_ 1). The radionuclide concentration is calculated at the
100
-------
Table 6-11. Predicted Ground Water Concentration as
a Function of Time for Tc-99 at a Point
10 km Along Aquifer (K, = 0.0)
d
Time, y
b . , 3
Concentration, pCi/cm
5,000
1.83
X
10"11
6,000
1.21
X
io"9
7,000
a2.92
X
io"9
8,000
8.96
X
io-10
9,000
6.97
X
io"11
10,000
2.07
X
10-12
11,000
3.07
X
io"14
12,000
2.70
X
io"16
13,000
1.59
X
io-18
14,000
6.83
X
io-21
15,000
2.28
X
io-23
16,000
6.22
X
io"26
a — Q 3
^Calculated peak at 6,850 y (2.98 x 10 pCi/cm ).
Prior to correction for radiodecay.
Table 6-12. Predicted Ground Water Concentration
as a Function of Time for Np-237 at a
Point 10 km Along Aquifer
-------
Table 6-13•• Predicted Ground Water Concentration
as a Function of Time for C-14 at a
Point 10 km Along Aquifer (K = 1.4)
Time, y
b 3
Concentration, yCi/cm
100,000
2.00
X
10-13
110,000
9.00
X
io"12
120,000
1.24
X
10-10
130,000
6.89
X
10"10
140,000
1.87
X
io"9
150,000
a2.87
X
io"9
160,000
2.77
X
io"9
170,000
1.83
X
io~9
180,000
8.75
X
io-10
190,000
3.21
X
io'10
200,000
9.38
X
io-11
210,000
2.26
X
io"11
220,000
4.59
X
io-12
230,000
8.06
X
io"13
240,000
1.25
X
io"13
250,000
1.72
X
io"14
260,000
2.16
X
io"15
270,000
2.47
X
io-16
280,000
2.62
X
io-17
290,000
2.59
X
io"18
300,000
2.39
X
io"19
310,000
2.10
X
io"20
320,000
1.74
X
io-21
a -9 3
Calculated peak at 154,000 y (2.978 x 10 pCi/cm )
Prior to correction for radiodecay.
102
-------
end of each time sub-interval, and the average radionuclide concentration
is obtained by dividing the sum of all these calculated concentrations
by the total number of time periods in the increment. Finally, as dis-
cussed in Section 4.D. of Vol. I, a decay factor, DECFAC, is applied
within AMRAW to account for radiodecay in each of the components for
average concentration calculations.
Examples of ground water concentrations prior to accounting for
radiodecay predicted by the simplified transport solution in Eq. 6-7 are
presented in Tables 6-11 to 6-13 for 1 Ci releases of Tc-99, Np-2 37 and
C-14. Results of calculations indicate that both Tc-99 and 1-129 (K =
d
0) emerge at 10 km along aquifer after 9000 y, but only calculated con-
centrations for Tc-99 are presented in Table 6-11. The Np-237 nuclide
(half—life 2.14 x 10 y) , evaluated with K = 10.5, does not peak, until
6 d
after 10 years.
In Table 6-13, C-14 (K^ = 1.4 assumed) is found to peak a little
after 150,000 years. Plots of these tabulations are shown in Figs. 6-13
and 6-14. Figure 6-13 is a concentration plot for Tc-99 and 1-129 while
Fig. 6-14 shows the relative emergence of the concentration peaks for
Tc-99 and 1-129 (coincident in the plot), C-14 and Np-237. Clearly,
C-14 appears to travel by a factor of 22 slower compared to Tc-99 and
1-129 (peaks at 6800 y) . Also, the peak width at half height with K =
d
1.4 is 37,000. (Auxiliary runs external to AMRAW indicate Np-237, for
0
instance, peaks after 1.1 x 10 Y.)
2. Environmental Pathways. The second part of the Environmental
Model is the Environment-to-Man Pathways Model, in which pathway analysis
is performed and dose equivalent rates to man are calculated. This
model is entered for each increment of time with the calculated concen-
trations for each environmental input receptor. These concentrations,
as determined in the Transport-to-Environment Model are:
3
1) Air. Integrated air concentration, R2TOT, jiCi-y/cm ,
2) Land Surface.
2
a. Accumulated ground concentration, R2T0T, vCi/cm ,
b. Integrated deposition for current time increment,
2
GNDEP, yCi/cm ,
103
-------
1 CI Release
Rad iodecay neglected
(Tc-99 and 1-129)
0-
o-
o
1
0 MOO 8,000 12,000
Time (years)
Figure 6-13 . Ground water concentration as a function oi
time for = 0 at a point 10 km along
aquifer.
104
-------
-8
d
(Tc-99 and
1-129)
1 CI Re1 eases
Rad iodecay neglected
(Np-237)
0 100,000 200,000 ^ J 700,000 800,000 900,000 1
Time (years)
Figure 6-14. Ground water concentration as a functi,
of time for Tc-99, 1-129, c-14 and
Hp-237 at a point 10 km along 'aquifer.
105
-------
3) Surface Water. Accumulated water concentration, R2T0T,
3
yci/cm , and
4) Ground Water. Accumulated ground water concentration at
3
point of use, R2T0T, pCi/cm .
The matrix, R2T0T, contains the net total concentrations accumulated
for each of the four environmental input receptors, for each zone of
the study region, at the end of each time increment considered. Similarly,
GNDEP is the land surface deposition matrix for each current time incre-
ment.
Implementation of the last half of the environmental model requires
a definition of all the pathways considered significant, and evaluation
of input for the three factors which are components of the corresponding
transfer coefficients, C: 1) biofactor, BIOFAC, 2) consumption, ex-
posure or food production rates, VOLINT, and 3) dose rate factors,
DOSFAC. In Vol. I, Fig. 4-14 illustrates the main pathways and Fig.
4-15 illustrates the relation of transfer coefficient C between receptor
concentrations and dose commitment rates. Table 4-3 in Vol. I details
the factors comprising the transfer coefficients and their units.
Table 6-14 lists 14 subpathways representing the most common path-
ways between the environment and man in the Los Meaanos region. The
pathways are grouped for orderly computer calculations. Under each
input receptor there are two main pathways or modes, one for external
exposure and the other for internal exposure (except for ground water
where it is convenient to use both modes for different categories of
ingestion). The ingestion mode under the land surface receptor divides
into several subpaths representing above surface crops, meat, and milk.
Each of these in turn has up to several components. To avoid an unwieldy
number of pathways, the components are consolidated external to AMRAW,
with consideration of individual concentration factors and consumption,
and reduced to equivalent composite transfer coefficients for subpath
calculations. There are both fresh water and salt water lakes and ponds
in the region, each with a different aquatic food production behavior.
Again, in this provision for a single aquatic food subpath, the conpo-
nents are consolidated external to AMRAW. As discussed in a later para-
graph , data on production rates in the aquatic food subpath cure not
106
-------
Table
6
"14. Environmental
Pathways for Los Medarios
Region
Environmental Input
Receptor
Main Pathway
(Mode)
Subpath
Dose
Effect* Component
Air
1.
Immersion
1.
Immersion
L
2.
Inhalation
1.
Inhalation
L
Land Surface
1.
Direct exposure
1.
Direct exposure
L
2.
Ingestion
1.
2.
3.
4.
Above surface crops
Meat (range fed)
Meat (hay fed)
Milk
N
N
N
N
Corn
Sorghus
Wheat
Soybeans
Grazing
Exported hay (feed lots)
Within zone
Exported hay equivalent
Surface Hater
1.
Submersion
1.
Submersion
X.
2.
Ingestion
1.
2.
3.
4.
Drinking water
Meat from drinking water
Milk from drinking water
Aquatic foods
L
N
N
N
Fish (fresh water)
Invertebrates (fresh water)
Aquatic plants (fresh water)
Waterfowl (fresh water)
Fish (salt water)
Invertebrates (salt water)
Aquatic plants (salt water)
Waterfowl (salt water)
Ground Mater
1.
Ingestion
1.
Drinking water (man)
L
2. Ingestion 1. Heat from drinking water ft
•Subpaths contribute to local dose (L) or to nonspecific dose (N) , as indicated.
-------
presently available (values for VOLINT input as zero). Each subpath
listed in the subpath column of Table 6-14 represents a pathway imple-
mented for the application, for a total of 14.
The calculations are linear, permitting superposition of effects.
Meat and milk pathway analysis usually considers only the food input
to the animals involved. For desert range cattle, there is a heavy
intake of drinking water which can also lead to contamination of meat.
The superposition calculations are handled in the model by first calcu-
lating transfer of radionuclides into meat and milk through food ingesti
followed by consumption of meat and milk by man (land surface subpaths).
Then the contamination from drinking water is determined and the meat
and milk are assumed to be re-consumed by man (surface water and ground
water subpaths) and dose effects are added. Note also that meat is
divided into two subpaths under land surface. The first subpath repre-
sents meat added to animals grazing on contaminated rangeland (does not
include weight added in feed lots after export from the region). The
second subpath represents meat added to animals feeding on contaminated
hay grown on irrigated land in the region. This includes hay exported
and used for feed outside of the region.
Each subpath in Table 6-14 is labeled to indicate whether the
associated dose rate contributes to "local dose" to individuals within
each particular zone, or to a "nonspecific dose" to the population
consuming exported agricultural products.
Next, implementation for the factors which make up the transfer
coefficients is described.
(a) Bio factors. The term "biofactor" is used here to denote
the ratio of radionuclide concentration in a food or drink to the cor-
responding environmental concentration, with units as shown in Table
6-15. Biofactors, denoted by the nomenclature BIOFAC, are needed only
for the ingestion pathways; this factor is set equal to unity within
AMRAW for the other pathway categories (mode 1 for all four receptors
and mode 2 for the air receptor).
(1) Terrestrial Biofactors. Terrestrial codes such as
108
-------
Table 6-15. Factors Comprising Environment-to-Man. Coefficients
ENVIRONMENTAL
INPUT RECEPTOR
CONCENTRATION
AIR
yCi-y/cm3
R2T0T
LAND SURFACE
yjCi/cm2
R2TOT GNDEP
SURFACE WATER
liCi/cm3
R2T0T
GROUND WATER
yCi/cio3
R2T0T
Main* Pathway
Mode
Immersion
1
Inhalation
2
Direct
Exposure
1
Ingestion
Terrestrial
Food*
2
Submersion
1
Ingesti
Drinking
Water
2
on
Aquatic
Food*
2
Ingestion
1 or 2
Biofactor
BIOFAC
X
uCi-y/g
yCi/cm2
liCi/cm3
liCi/cm3
(dimensionless)
uCi/g
ViCi/cm3
yCi/cm3
pCi/cm3
(dime ns ionl e s s)
Consumption,
Exposarei
or Food
y/y
cm3/y
y/y
g/y
y/y
cm^/y
g/y
cm^/y
Production Rate
VOLINT
Conversion of
Integrated
Value to
Average Rate
1/DELTE
i/y
i/y
—
i/y
—
—
Dose Factor
DOSFAC
mrem/y
pCi/cm3
rarem
ViCi
mrem/y
•7
IjCi/cm
mrem/y
pCi/y
mrem/y
pCi/cm3
mrem/y
pCi/y
mrem/y
uCi/y
mrem/y
uCx/y
Transfer
Coefficient
C
mrem/y
mrem/y
mrem/y
mrem/y
mrem/y
mrem/y
mrem/y
mrem/y
pCi-y/cm3
ViCi-y/cm3
ViCi/cm^
ViCi/cm2
pCi/cm3
^iCi/cm3
yCi/cm3
|iCi/cm3
Dose Rate
mrem/y#
mrem/y^
mrem/y
mrem/y*
mrem/y
mrem/y
mrem/y
mrem/y
*Food pathways divide into sub-paths (not shown).
~Transfer coefficient yields average dose commitment rate during time interval in which integrated dose commitment
-------
TERMOD [K£76] or FOOD [Ba76] may be used to obtain radionuclide concen-
trations in food per unit deposition rate over the area concerned. It
is advantageous to base the terrestrial food on the concept of integrated
concentration following an acute deposition, as explained in Section
4.D.2. of Vol. I. There is an equivalence of the ratio of the equili-
brium concentration in food (yCi/g) to a unit continuous surface depo-
2
sition rate (yCi/m -day) with the ratio of the integrated concentration
2
in the food (yCi-day/g) to a unit acute surface deposition (]jCi/ra ) .
This equivalence provides for a simple application of terrestrial code
output to obtain integrated concentrations. The present implementation
makes use of TERMOD output.
First, TERMOD output for a desert grassland environment was needed
in addition to the usual output for U. S. average conditions. Table
6-16 lists the parameters for which TERMOD input was changed. The
desert values are estimates made at UNM by Gosz [Gz76] for the Los
Medanos region. The output for desert is used for range grazing meat
animals, and the U. S. average data is used for all food categories
associated with irrigated agriculture, including above surface food and
milk.
Table 6-17 lists sample TERMOD output for Sr-90. Consider above-
surface food, for example. The equilibrium concentration of Sr-90 cor-
2 -2
responding to a unit deposition rate (1 jiCi/m -day) is 1.92 x 10 \iCi/g.
By the equivalence stated above, this also represents an integrated
-2 2
concentration per unit deposition of 1.92 x 10 (iiCi-day/g)/(uCi/m ).
4 2 2
Multiplying by 10 for m to cm conversion and dividing by 365 for days
2
to y conversion obtains BIOFAC = 0.526 (yCi-y/g)/(yCi/cm ).
The biofactor for range fed meat production is obtained in the
same manner as the deposition component above, using the beef concen-
trations per unit deposition rate from Table 6-17 for the desert condi-
tion (0.191 yCi/kg). Similarly, the biofactor for hay fed meat (0.130
VCi/kg) assumes the U. S. average pasture conditions simulate irrigated
hay production. Similarly, the biofactor for milk is obtained using the
milk concentration per unit deposition rate, 0.672 yCi/liter. The values
2
of BIOFAC for Sr-90 after unit conversions to (yCi-y/g)/(pCi/cm ) become:
110
-------
Table 6 -16 .
TERMOD Input Parameters Changed
for Desert Terrain
Parameter
U. S. Avg.
Desert
, .4 2
Pasture area per cow, 10^ ur
Dry weight areal grass density, kg/m*
Rate of increase in wet muscle mass
of steer, kg/day
Mass of muscle on steer at time of
slaughter (or export), kg
Density of soil, g/cm^
Deposition fraction to pasture
Transfer rates, day
Above surface food to soil surface
Grass to soil
Soil pool to soil sink
Pasture soil to soil sink
Pasture soil to pasture grass
1.0E+4
0.15
0.4
200
1.4
0.25
0.0495
0.0495
1.10E-4
1.10E-4
2.74E-5
2.6E+4
0.015
0.1
100
1.6
0.025
0.0243
0.0243
1.0E-5
1.0E-5
5.48E-5
Table 6-17. Sample TERMOD Output, for Sr-90
2
(Deposition rate: 1 pCi/m -day)
U. S. Avg.
Desert
Above-surface food,3 pCi/m2
1.92
(3.72)b
adjusted pCi/g
1.92E-2
Beef, yCi/kg
1.30E-1
1.91E-1
Milk, pCi/liter
6.72E-1
(1.97)b
2
Soil surface, pCi/m
1.31E+3
1.30E+3
Soil pool,C pCi 2
5.11E+6
1.16E+7
adjusted, pCi/m
5.11E+3
1.16E+4
2
Soil sink, pCi/m
1.02E+4
1.75E+3
Notes: a. Dry weight areal density of man's above-surface food
is 100 g/m2.
b. Reference values only; desert not used for man's food
crops and milk.
c. Soil pool in yCi in subsurface pool associated with
one man's food supply (surface area of 1000 m^) .
Ill
-------
Above-surface foods 5.26 E-01
Meat (range fed) 5.23 E-03
Meat (hay fed) 3.56 E-03
Milk 1.84 E-02
The terrestrial biofactor values for the other radionuclides are
obtained using corresponding TERMOD output [Wi76].
(2) Water Biofactors. The biofactors for weat and milk
contamination from contaminated drinking water are readily calculated.
For example, the stable element transfer factor for strontium into meat
[NRC76] is 6.0 x 10 ^ day/leg which for Sr-90 represents 6.0 x 10 ^ (yCi/
kg)/(yCi/day), Multiplying this by an average daily water intake per
cow, 4.0 x 105 cm3/day, and converting from kg to g results in a bio-
factor of 0.24(pci/g)/(vCi/cm3). Similarly, the stable element trans-
-4
fer factor for strontium into mxlk is 8.0 x 10 and a daily water intake
5 3
per milk cow of 6.4 x 10 cm /day results in a biofactor of 0.512.
The study site in southeast New Mexico contains both fresh water
and salt water environments. Available biofactors, obtained for path-
ways for both of these habitats, are listed in Appendix G. Consumption
rates for the several types of aquatic foods (Table 6-14 5 are not yet
known and zero values for this pathway have therefore been entered into
AMRAW. However, this is believed here to be a very minor contribution
in the Los Medanos area,
(3) Carbon-14. The concentration of C-14 in vegetation
is assumed to have the same ratio to the natural carbon in the vegeta-
tion as the ratio of C-14 to natural carbon in the atmosphere surrounding
the vegetation [Ba76, NRC76, Ng68], Similarly, the C-14 ratio to
natural carbon in animal products is the same as that in the vegetative
feed. Table 6-18 lists some typical natural carbon fractions [8a76].
The biofac for C-14 in above-surface foods is then taken to be: air
concentration per unit land surface accumulation (approximated by the
resuspension factor discussed earlier), divided by the natural carbon
fraction in air, and multiplied by the natural carbon fraction in
above-surface food. In turn, the resulting value multiplied by Fc for
beef and milk yields the corresponding biofactors for C-14 in beef and
milk, respectively. The C-14 biofactors for transfer to beef and milk
are determined using the stable element transfer factor for carbon, as
-------
Table 6-18.
Fractions of Natural Carbon in Food
and Environmental Media
Food or Fodder
Carbon
(Dry)
Carbon
(Wet)
F
c
F
c
Vegetation
0.45
0.090
Grain
0.45
0.40
Beef
0.60
0.24
Milk
0.58
0.070
Poultry
0.67
0. 20
Concentration of carbon in water: 0.020 g/liter.
Concentration of aarbon in air: 0.16 g/m^.
described earlier for other elements.
(4) Tabulation of Biofactors. The biofactors obtained for
the 25 radionuclides and the 10 mode 2 ingestion subpaths are listed in
Appendix J under the variable name "BIOFAC."
(b) Consumption^ Exposure and Food Production Rates. This is
the second of three factors which make up the environmental pathway
transfer coefficients, and is discussed here in the subpath sequence
used in Table 6-14. Immersion and inhalation of affected air 100% of
9 3
the time is assumed. Inhalation rate per individual is 7.30 x 10 cm /y
4
(2 x 10 l/d) [KJ2.76]. Direct exposure to contaminated ground by indi-
viduals is assumed to average 40% of the time. For the ingestion sub-
paths associated with land surface contamination, Table 6-19 summarizes
the production rates for above-surface foods, range fed meat, cultivated
land meat (exported hay equivalent), and milk, taken from Appendix H.
The latter were developed by the study team, based upon Census of Agri-
culture [USCB69] data for the area and discussions with Agriculture
Economics staff at New Mexico State University [NMSU75].
Submersion in water assumes 10% of the population spends 1% of their
time swimming; the corresponding average exposure factor is 0.001.
Drinking water for individuals is assumed to be 8.0 x 105 cm3/y (2.2 £/d)
113
-------
Table 6-19. Summary of Food Production in Region
(VOLINT input for land surface, ingestion pathways)
Zone
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Above surface food
crops, g/y
0
0
1.11E10
3.95E9
2.52E11
1.97E10
5.82E9
2.84E9
Range land meat,
g/y
6.30E7
1.18E10
1-81E10
7.60E9
1.02E10
1.38E10
3 .27E10
0
Cultivated land
meat, g/y
0
0
4.67E8
8.32E8
5.43E9
,1.92E9
7.88E9
6.23E9
Milk, an3/y
0
0
4.05E9
3.21E9
1.58E10
1.50E10
6.31E10
3.46E10
Notes: Zones 1, 2, and 8 are components of Eddy County; Zone 1 is the repository site and
Zone 8 is'the irrigated area.
Exported hay is assumed to go 75% to beef conditioning operations and 2 5% to dairies.
-------
[KJi.76] , divided between surface water and ground water sources as listed
in Table 6-20. It should be noted that consumption of ground water in a
particular zone can be only partially from a contaminated source. The
contaminated plume downflow from the repository lies beneath a surface
area equal to an effective plume width multiplied by the distance tra-
veled in the zone. On this basis, the postulated contaminated plume in
Zone 2 lies under a fraction of 0.006 times the total area of Zone 2.
Assuming a random drilling of water wells, a fraction of 0.006 times
the individual intake rate of 8.0 x 10^ cm3/y results in an average of
3 3
4.80 x 10 cm /y for individuals in Zone 2 from contaminated ground water,
as listed in Table 6-20.
Meat and dairy animals are assumed to consume drinking water from
surface and ground sources with the same fractions listed in Table 6-20-
The "production rate" of meat associated with surface drinking water in
a particular zone equals the total meat production rate for the zone,
not including meat from exported hay, from Table H-l {Appendix H), multi-
plied by the drinking water surface source fraction from Table 6-20.
Milk is treated similarly.
Production rates for aquatic foods are not currently available and
these are input with zero values.
Ingestion of drinking water by man from contaminated ground water
sources is in accordance with Table 6-20; associated meat production
is determined in a manner similar to that used with surface water (meat
production rate for the zone multiplied by the contaminated ground water
source fraction from Table 6-20) .
The resulting matrix of factors is listed in Appendix J under the
variable name "VOLINT."
(a) Dose Rate Factors. The last of three factors comprising
the environmental pathway transfer coefficients is the dose rate factor
which converts from external exposure concentrations (mode 1) or nuclide
intake rates (mode 2) to annual dose commitments to various organs.
Dose commitment from a given intake of a radionuclide is the integrated
dose over a period of time subsequent to intake. The integration period
is generally taken to be 50 y. For external exposure, dose commitment
rates are simply the instantaneous rates as there is no persistence of
115
-------
3
Table 6-20. Water Intake Per Person, cm /y
Zone
Surface Water
3 . a
cm /y
Total Ground
Water
Contaminated
Ground Water
_ • 3 b
Fraction an /y
Noncontaminated
Ground Water
3
Fraction cm /y
Fraction
Fraction
3.
cm /y
1
0
0
0
0
0 0
0
0
2
0.50
4.00E5
0.50
4.00E5
0.006 4.80E3
0.494
3.95E5
3
0.25
2.00E5
0.75
6.00E5
0 0
0.75
6.00E5
4
0
0
1.00
8.00E5
0 0
1.00
8.00E5
5
0
0
1.00
8.00E5
0 0
1.00
8.00E5
6
0
0
1-00
8.00E5
0 0
1.00
8.00E5
7
0.50
4.00E5
0-50
4.00E5
0 0
0.50
4.00E5
8
0.50
4.00E5
0-50
4.00E5
0.025 2.00E4
0-475
3.80E5
avOLINT input for surface water ingestion pathway.
*VoLINT input for ground water ingestion pathway.
-------
dose rate once the external source is removed. The modes listed in
Table 6-15 are summarized in Table 6-21 along with the units for the
corresponding dose conversion factors. The modes listed in Table 6-21
are: immersion and inhalation for air, direct exposure to contaminated
land surface, submersion in contaminated water and ingestion of contam-
inated food or water. The eight organs selected for calculation are:
total body, GI tract, gonads, liver, lungs, bone marrow, bone, and
thyroid. Wherever possible, dose factor values used for this applica-
tion are taken from ORNL-4992 [K£76]. Internal (inhalation and inges-
tion) dose factors for Zr-93, Nb-93m, Tc-99, and Cs-135 (and for inges-
tion of C-14) are from NUREG-0172 [Ho77]. Also, most of the internal
factors for thyroid and ingestion for lung are from NUREG-0172. From
half to two-thirds of the internal factors (except for GI tract and
thyroid) are from ERDA-1541 [ERDA76b]. This latter source uses 70 y
dose commitments instead of the 50 y period used in the previous two
sources. Also, most of the factors for dose to gonads are from ERDA-
1541. Missing data for gonads was approximated by whole body data
where deemed appropriate and bone data was used as default data for
missing bone marrow values. Appendix J lists the dose factors under the
variable name "DOSFAC," for all of the nuclides, exposure modes, and
affected organs included in this study. Table 6-21 aids in identifying
nomenclature in Appendix J.
(d) Othev Potential Pathways. One additional pathway which
could be added is that from ground surface to upland birds to man. Bio-
factors have not yet been found for this pathway. Other minor pathways
include other hunted game species, and animal species attracted to
human dwellings. Any changes in species populations in response to re-
leases of radioactivity could have some effect on the vegetation types
and indirectly shift the potential transfer of radioactivity to man.
This is discussed further in Appendix I. Effects of this type may be
investigated in AMRAW by input of variables reflecting any projected
shift of conditions.
117
-------
Table 6-21. Summary of Dose Modes and Dose
Conversion Factor Units
Air (JF = 1)
Mode 1. Immersion,
VCi/cm
Mode 2. Inhalation, mram/pei
Land Surface (JF = 2}
Mode 1. Direct exposure, mre"/¥"-_
yci/cm
Mode 2. Ingestion, rarem/yci
Surface Water (JF = 3)
Mode 1. Submersion, .
VCi/cra
Mode 2. Ingestion, mrem/pci
Ground Water (JF = 4)
Mode 1. Ingestion, mrem/yci
Mode 2. Ingestion, mrem/VCi
118
-------
D. CALCULATED DOSE RATES
The Base Case AMRAW-A computer run for terminal storage at the
Los Medaflos site is designated Case 48 and the output calculations for
this case are presented here in some detail. This case evaluates the
potential releases of radioactivity on a probabilistic basis from all
of the release event combinations described earlier in the Release Model
Section 6.B.
One computer run with full output option, for 25 nuclides, 8 organs
and 8 zones, produces 627 tables of calculated output (see Table J-l in
Appendix J). Several types of summaries are used here to both present
sample sets of output and to collect output in a condensed form.
The map in Figure 6-15 indicates total body dose rates totaled for
all nuclides, in each zone and for the non-specific category, at times
of 100, 1,000, and 10,000 years. Local dose rates in each zone are
millirems per year to an individual in the zone, and nonspecific dose
rates are man rems to a dispersed population.
Zones 1, 8 (and in one table: Zone 6) and nonspecific are used for
sampling the output in more detail. Zone 1 (5 km radius around the site)
is of interest because any violent event which transports waste material
to the surface results in the highest calculated concentration and as-
sociated dose rates in this zone. It should be noted, however, that the
only environmental pathways considered for this zone are: air immersion
and inhalation, direct ground exposure, and range grazed meat production
(site exclusion to grazing is assumed to be only temporary). Zone 8 on
the other hand (irrigated corridor along the Pecos River) involves all
pathways except range animals and is the zone which ultimately receives
surfacing ground water which has passed over the site. The nonspecific
category collects effects on agricultural commodities from all of the
zones (largely exported to consumers outside of the study region) and partly
represents consequences outside of the region as well as within.
Sets of computer output for two radionuclides are in Appendix K.
Results for one fission product (Tc-99) and one heavy metal (Pb-210) are
presented, with all tables for Zones 1, 8, apd the nonspecific category
included. Output listing of the corresponding major AMRAW input is in
Appendix J.
119
-------
NONSPECIFIC
7.09 x JO"2
!.47 x 10~3
ZONE 6
k.2k x 10-5
1.26 x 10"*
ZONE 8**
ZONE 5
2.62 x 10'
5-97 x 10"
ZONE 2 C
5.03 x JO"?
3.29 x 10"?
7.63 x I0-*
ZONE k
ZON
Values listed are for
100 years
1 ,000 years
10,000 years
tn mi11i rems per year fc
Zones 1-8;
in man-rems per year for
NONSPECIFIC DOSE.
scale of kilometers
* Zone 1 is a 5 km radius area centered on the Los ^edanos site.
**Zone 8 Is a k km wide corridor centered on the Pecos River
in Eddy County.
Figure 6-15. Calculated total body dose rates
for all nuclides.
10 25
120
-------
Figures 6-16 through 6-34 collect sairole results in various com-
binations for comparison purposes.
Figures 6-16 and 6-17 are plots of local dose rates in Zone 1 and
nonspecific, respectively, for each organ, totaled for all nuclides.
More complete data are listed in Appendix L where sunwary tables for
Zones 1, 8, and "nonspecific" list dose rates to each of the 8 organs
considered, from each of the 25 radionuclides, at times of 40 (10 years
3 5 6
after closing the repository), 100, 10 , 10 , 10 and 10 years. All of
the other figures described in the following paragraphs are for total
body dose rates. Results indicate breakthrough of Np-237 in ground water,
commencing at about 700,000 y in Zone 2 (downflow from the repository).
This causes the steep turnup near 10 y in Fig. 6-17 for nonspecific dose
(partially from Zone 2). This characteristic result is apparent in some
other figures described in following paragraphs. If the time range of
calculations were extended beyond 10 y, it would be found that these
curves would level off above 10^ y and then decline. A given increment
of Np-237 release peaks in Zone 2 after approximately 1.1 x 10& y. It
should be recalled that the ground water seepage velocity used in this
study was conservatively taken to be 6 times the estimated value} if a
less conservative factor of 4 were used instead of 6, the Np breakthrough
0
would not occur within 10 y.
Figures 6-18 through 6-23 are plots of total body dose rates in
Zone 1. The first two figures are for fission products and the last four
are for the heavy metal nuclides, grouped into the four decay series
(Th, Np, U, and Ac).
Some irregularity in the curves is related to the sizing of time
increments. The size of time increments jumps by a factor of 10 at the
beginning of each decade in the time scale. Figure 6-22 for the uranium
series, clearly illustrates the effects of sequential buildups of Th-230,
Ra-226, and Pb-210 as the precursors Am-242m, Cm-242, and Pu-2 38 decline.
Figures 6-24 through 6-31 are corresponding plots and additional
summaries for the nonspecific category. That is, Figs. 6-24 and 6-25
are for fission products and Figs. 6-26 through 6-29 are for the four
decay series. Figure 6-30 is a summary which shows that only six nuclides
121
-------
comprise almost all of the total nonspecific dose rate. Cs-137 and
Sr-90 are virtually the total up to 400 years? Am-241 and Am-243 are
the major contributors from 400 years to 5000 years; Tc-99 and Ra-226
take over for times after 5000 years, and Np-237 moves in as 10^ y is
approached. Figure 6-31 presents contributions from minor heavy metals
Figures 6-32 through 6-34 are plots of total body dose rates,
totaled for all radionuclides, broken down by contributions from each o
the four environmental receptors: air, ground surface, surface water,
and ground water, and their total. Figure 6-32 is local dose rates in
Zone 2; here, a prominant Np breakthrough appears in ground water after
700,000 y as Zone 2 is downflow from the repository. Fig. 6-33 is loca.
dose rates in Zone 6. These two zones are of comparison interest as
their centers are roughly the same distance from the repository site an<
they are both primarily desert terrain. However, 50% of drinking water
in Zone 2 is assumed to be from surface water and 50% from ground water
while no surface sources of drinking water is assumed in Zone 6 and groi
water in this zone is in a direction which cannot become contaminated.
Figure 6-34 is the corresponding plot of nonspecific dose rates (accumu-
lated from all zones). Note that air is not a contributing receptor fo:
the nonspecific category. Ground water begins to show a significant
4
contribution after 10 y as Tc-99 breaks through in Zone 2, followed by
Np-237 breakthrough after 700,000 y.
Chapter 7 describes other cases in which selected parameters are
varied in the probabilistic mode for sensitivity analysis purposes and
discrete events at specific times provide for consequence analysis.
122
-------
0
0
0
Marrow & Bone
Lungs
Lungs
Li ver
Li ver
-2
Total Body
Gonads
3
Thyroid
5
6
6
3
2
5
Time (years)
Figure 6-16 . Average annual local dose to individual
for each organ in Zone 1 from all nuclides.
123
-------
G.I. Tract
Bone
Bone
Li ver
Liver
Tota 1
Body &
Gonads
f TotaI Bod
£ Gonads S
. Tract
Lungs
-2
Lungs
Total Body
Thyroid
-3 -
Gonads
Mini mum i s
at 800 y
Time (years)
Figure 6-17. Average annual nonspecific dose to popu-
lation for each organ from all nuclides.
124
-------
10
10
10
^ 50
10
0)
>•
(U
i.
e
m 10
cc
-------
Y-90
Zr-93
Tc-99
1 0
1 1
12
13
Time (years)
Figure 6-19. Average annual local total body dose to
individual in Zone 1 from minor contri-
buting fission products.
126
-------
10
-1
10
-2
r3
10
-5
,-6
10
-7
10
-8
10'
TOTAL, ALL NUCLIDES
Pu-2h0
Cm-2kh
I
JL
10
10* 10
Time (years)
10-
10
Figure 6-20. Average annual local total body dose to
individual in Zone 1 from thorium series.
127
-------
TOTAL, ALL NUCLIDES
2
Th-229
3
k
5
6
7
Th-229
Ra-225
8
0
6
5
3
2
10
Time (years)
Figure 6- 21. Average annual local total body dose to
individual in Zone 1 from neptunium series
128
-------
TOTAL, ALL NUCLIDES
2
-3
Th-230
Ra-226
5
Pb-210
6
7
8
0
6
A
5
2
3
Time (years)
Figure 6-22. Average annual local total body dose to
individual in Zone 1 from uranium series.
129
-------
10
-I
10
-2
10
-3
10
Am-243
10
10
-6
10
-7 -
10
Np-239
10'
TOTAL, ALL NUCLIDES
10J 10"
Time (years)
Figure 6 -23. Average annual local total body dose to
individual in Zone 1 from actinium series.
130
-------
0
0
0
TOTAL, ALL NUCLIDES
0
Sr-90
2
0
3
Tc-99
Cs-137
5
-129
6
10
6
5
2
10
10
10
10
Time (years)
Figure 6-24. Average annual nonspecific total body
dose from fission products.
131
-------
05
>-
»
c
fO
E
ce:
QJ
w
O
o
Nb-93m
Figure 6
I0-1 10
Time (years)
25. Average annual nonspecific total body dose
from minor contributing fission products.
132
-------
0
0
0
TOTAL, ALL NUCLIDES
2
10
-3
0
0
6
0
Time (years)
Figure 6 -26. Average annual nonspecific total body
dose from thorium decay series.
133
-------
TOTAL, ALL NUCLIDES
Am~2
-------
10'
10
1_
(0
g)
>-
i
c
m
E
to
cc
-------
TOTAL, ALL NUCLIDES
(0
4>
>»
E
«
u
i
c
a>
VI
O
a
-6 -
Pu-239
Time (years)
Figure 6 - 29. Average annual nonspecific total body
dose from actinium decay series.
136
-------
TOTAL, ALL NUCLIDES
Ra-226
Sr-90
Am-2^1
Am-243
Cs-137
Tc-99
Np-237
\0J 10
Time (years)
Figure 6 - 30. Average annual nonspecific total body dose
from major contributing nuclides.
137
-------
10-5
Th-230
0
0
0
10
-10
] 1
12
Time (years)
Figure 6-31. Average annual nonspecific total body
dose front minor contributing heavy
metals.
138
-------
TOTAL, ALL RECEPTORS
SURFACE WATER
GROUND SURFACE
GROUND WATER
Time (years)
Figure 6 - 32, Average annual total body dose in Zone
2, total all nuclides by receptor.
139
-------
10
TOTAL, ALL RECEPTORS
10
10
Ground Surface
10
0
Surface Water
10
0
Time (years)
Figure 6-33. Average annual total body dose in Zone 6,
total all nuclides by receptors.
140
-------
TOTAL, ALL RECEPTORS
X-
m
•
E
4)
Ground Water
C
1
Surface Water
u
Ground Surface
-5 -
Time (years)
Figure 6-34. Average annual nonspecific total body
dose, total all nuclides by receptors.
141
-------
Intentionally Blank Page
142
-------
Chapter 7
IMPLEMENTATION OF MODEL; OTHER CASES
The base case described in Chapter 6 is a computer run in the
probabilistic mode in which several geologic disturbance events are con-
sidered. The probabilistic distribution represents operation of AMRAW
in a risk mode. Additional cases which consider individual release
scenarios or which use different values for one or more of the parameters
input to the code are helpful in identifying the more important contri-
butors to risk. These additional cases comprise a sensitivity analysis,
presented in this chapter.
Another category of cases described in this chapter considers dis-
crete release events occurring at various times, comprising a consequence
analysis. This mode can also be considered to be sensitivity analysis in
that the consequence response to various times of initiation and to changes
in certain parameters is studied.
143
-------
A. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
The sensitivity analysis is done using two approaches: 1} operation
of the complete AMRAW-A code with varied input, and 2) operation of an
auxiliary program, consisting of the leaching and ground water transport
sub-programs from AMRAW-A, with varied input. Each of these approaches
is described in the following paragraphs. A structured sensitivity ana-
lysis requires agreement on the output parameter to be used as an indi-
cator. With approximately 600 output tables for each computer run, it
is possible to demonstrate only with a few important parameters. With
a selected indicator, output can be reduced to keep a structured analysis
within reasonable bounds.
1. AMRAW Sensitivity Analysis Cases¦ The 10 release scenarios
considered by the base case (Case 48) described in Chapter 6 are summa-
rized in Table 6-4. A first step for sensitivity analysis purposes is
to conduct computer runs for different single release scenarios {cut
sets) or combinations to determine relative contributions by each to
the total. The cases selected here are summarized in Table 7-1.
Table 7-1. Summary of Sensitivity Analysis Cases for
Volcanism and Meteorite Impact
Case
No.
Cuta
Set (s)
Release to
Receptor
Event
48
I—'
r
<=>
All
All (Base Case)
22
2
Air
Direct expulsion by volcanic
explosion
23
6
Land Surface
Volcanogenic transport to
surface
24
9
Surface Water
Volcanogenic transport to
surface
25
2,3,6,9
Air, Land
Surface & Surface
Water
All volcanism (including
diatreme)
26
1,5,8
Air, Land
Surface £ Surface
Water
Meteorite impact: Direct
expulsion to air and transport
to surface
54
10
Ground Water
Faulting, leaching to ground water
aCut set numbers refer to Table 6-4.
144
-------
The only difference in AMRAW input for these various cases is in Release
Model input. Inclusion of all cut sets comprises the base case, while
one or several cut sets comprises each of the other cases. It is not
necessary to run all of the cut sets separately. For example, 2 cut
sets (4 and 7 in Table 6-4) for surface reduction to the waste by erosion
do not result in a release during the 10^ y study period. Direct expul-
sion to air by a diatreme is minor compared to other volcanic releases
but may be obtained as the difference between Case 25 (total of all
volcanic releases) and the sum of Cases 22, 23, and 24 (all volcanic
releases except diatreme). Releases due to meteorite impact comprise
only 1% of those from volcanism and the 3 cut sets (1, 5, and 8) are
therefore combined in one run (Case 26).
Figure 7-1 and 7-2 show graphs of sample results for the 6 cases
identified in Table 7-1. Figure 7-1 is local total body dose rates in
Zone 2 summed for all nuclides. Zone 2 (see Fig. 5-6) is a desert area
surrounding the repository zone (Zone 1), in which 50% of drinking water
is assumed to be from surface water and 50% from ground water sources.
The total of all volcanism cut sets (Case 25) contributes virtually all
of the total for the base case (Case 48) until about 20,000 y (see
coincident plots); leaching and ground water transport (Case 54) begins
to affect the total after Tc-99 breakthrough, followed by ground water
domination after 700,000 y due to Np-237 breakthrough. Meteorite impact
(Case 26) is 2 orders of magnitude below the base case total, and there-
fore contributes only 1% of the total. During the first 20,000 y, the most
significant environmental receptor for releases is surface water (Case 24)
(60 - 80% of the total), followed in turn by land surface (Case 23) and
air (Case 22). After 20,000 y, the ground water receptor overtakes the
other receptors as stated above and becomes dominant. The reader is
reminded that calculated releases to one receptor also involves subse-
quent contamination of other receptors as interreceptor transfers are
made. For example, the case for a cut set giving release to air (Case
22) also includes consequences of deposition onto land surface and
surface water and resuspension from land surface back into the air. If
irrigation were involved in Zone 2 (it is not), there would also be
sequential transfer from surface water to land surface and corresponding
additional resuspension. Figure 7-2 shows the nonspecific total body
145
-------
Case 48 Base case, all volcanism plus other events
22 Volcanic release to air
23 11 " to land surface
24 " " to surface water
25 Total of all volcanic releases
26 Meteorite impact, total of all components
54 Leaching with ground water transport, from
faulting and interconnection of aquifers
_L
X
10
10'
10"
io'
Figure 7-1.
10J 10"
Time (years)
Components of average annual local total
body dose to individual, in Zone 2 from all
nuclides for violent volcanic, meteorite,
and faulting events.
146
-------
Case
kS
22
23
2k
25
26
5^4
Base case, all vol can ism plus other events
Volcanic release to air
" " to land surface
11 11 to surface water
Total of all volcanic releases
Meteorite impact, total of all components
Leaching with ground water transport, 48''
from faulting and interconnection of
aquifers
Figure 7-2.
10J 10
Time (years)
Components of average annual nonspecific
total body dose from all nuclides for vio-
lent volcanic, meteorite and faulting events
147
-------
dose rate summed for all nuclides. Recall that the nonspecific category
refers to agricultural products which are largely exported from the
region. The relative ranking of components is the same as for local dose
except that the relative importance of release to land surface (Case 23)
4
decreases at later times and ground water begins to dominate at 10 y.
The characteristic dip in the middle of these curves is due to dominance
by Sr-90 and Cs-137 at times less than 300 y, and dominance by Tc-99 and
Ra-226 at times greater than 10,000 y. Integration of dose rates over
7 x 105 y and the entire study period of 10^ y (areas under each curve
in Figs. 7-1 and 7-2) gives a measure of long-term risk from all events
and from each contributing event. Results of integration (performed
externally with AMRAW output) are listed in Table 7-2 for local dose
in Zone 2 as a sample, and for nonspecific dose (includes components
from all zones). The two ranges of integration show the changes in
relative contributions by the various events after Np breakthrough occurs.
Before Np breakthrough, volcanism comprises 90.5% of the total local
dose in Zone 2 with 8.6% from ground water, but Np breakthrough in the
10 y time range moves ground water to 99% of the total. On the other
hand, nonspecific dose is close to equally divided between volcanism
and ground water for both time ranges. The reader is reminded that the
ground water velocity is conservatively taken to be G times the esti-
mated value; a less conservative velocity assumption or a slightly higher
£
K, (e.g., instead of 10.5) would defer Np breakthrough to times > 10 y.
d
The relative importance of surface water depends upon its use as
drinking water. For example, in Zone 6 (a desert area near the reposi-
tory in which no drinking water is assumed to be from surface sources
and ground water flow from the repository does not occur) local total
body dose rate from volcanic release to surface water (Case 24) is more
than 7 orders of magnitude below the total for all events (Case 48),
representing a negligible contribution from swimming.
The next step in the sensitivity analysis is an investigation of a
parameter which applies after release. A very small token value for the
environmental decay constant (EDC) is used for most of the cases in this
study (see Section 6.C.l.d), corresponding to an environmental half-time
of 30,000 y. Case 49 has EDC for land surface and surface water increased
by a factor of 100, corresponding to an environmental half-time of 300 y.
148
-------
Table 7-2. Simmary of Integrated Total Body Dose for Base Case
and Release Scenario Components3
, 5
h
6
7
x 10 y
Integrated Dose
10 y
Integrated Dose
Local, Zone
2
Nonspeci fic
Local, Zone 2
Nonspecific
Case
% of
% of
% of
% of
No. Description
mrem
Total
man-rem
Total
mrem
Total
man-rem
Total
48 Base case, all events
2
7.96 x 10
100
4.97 x 105
100
4
8.83 x 10
100
6.86 x 105
100
22 Volcanic to air
8.32 x 10
10.5
3.04 x 104
6.1
1.03 x 102
0.1
3.66 x 104
5.3
23 Volcanic to land surface
6.73 x 10
8.5
6.03 x 10
0.01
9.07 x 10
0.1
6.86 x 10
0.01
24 Volcanic to surface water
5.63 x 102
70.7
2.35 x 105
47.3
6.85 x 10 2
0.8
2.84 x 105
41.4
. c
— Diatreme to air
6.50
0.8
1.54 x 103
0.3
8.00
0.01
2.33 x 103
0.3
25 Volcanic, total
7.20 X 102
90.5
2.67 x 105
53.7
8.87 x 102
1.0
3.23 x 105
47.1
26 Meteorite iaqpact, total
7.51
0.9
2.85 x 103
0.6
9.24
0.01
3.43 x 103
0.5
54 Faulting, leaching to
5
4
5
ground water
6.82 x 10
8.6
2.27 x 10
45.7
8.74 x 10
99.0
3.60 x.10
52.5
Cases run in probabilistic mode.
b 5 •
7 x 10 y is prior to breakthrough of Np in ground water discharged in Zone 2.
Q
Diatreme release to air is Case 25 (total of all volcanic) minus sum of Cases 22, 23, and 24.
-------
Table 7-3 summarizes results. Significant reduction of dose rates occurs
for the increased EDC, up to a maximum reduction of 87%; a two orders of
magnitude increase in EDC results in less than a one order of magnitude
reduction in total dose rates. The effect of varying EDC is moderated
in the probabilistic mode by continual feed in of new calculated releases.
Other examples of sensitivity analysis are discussed under the topic
of consequence analysis in Section 7.B. Additional discussion is also
presented in Chapter 8.
2. Ground Water Transport. The sensitivity analysis work in the
leaching and ground water transport models similarly uses the present
site-specific application of AM RAW to the Los Medafios site as the basis.
Here, however, the leaching and ground water transport routines , which
include analytic expressions that are functions of a number of parameters,
are run separately from AMRAW as a combined auxiliary program. This is
an economical step since only portions of AMRAW are used instead of the
entire code.
(a) Border Values of KAn important parameter in ground
water transport is the retardation factor, R,, discussed in Section 4.D.
a
of Vol. I and in Section 6.C. of this volume. Burkholder [Bu77a] uses
the term: "adsorption equilibrium constant" for this parameter. From
Eq. 6-7b (or Eq. 4-72 in Vol. I), R^ is defined as
pK
Rd " 1 + — <7-D
where p is the density of the solid medium, K, is the distribution co-
d
efficient, and e is the porosity of the aquifer. Simply, Eq. 7-1 shows
that the retardation factor increases with K,, In Vol. I (Eq. 4-80),
d
the pulse velocity U is the approximate rate of travel of a dissolved
radionuclide, defined as the ratio of the seepage velocity (or pore
velocity) v to R,, i.e.
p d
v
For a given distance x corresponding to a point of discharge or usage,
the pulse velocity in Eq. 7-2 can be used to estimate the approximate
150
-------
Table 7-3, Reduction of Total Body Dose Rate
from Increase in Environmental
Decay Constant
Time Base Case Comparison Case % Dose Rate
y No. 48 No. 49 a Reduction
Zone 1 local dose rates, mrem/y
100
2.55
X
-3
10
2.41
X
-3
10
5
1,000
5.04
X
-3
10
2.32
X
-3
10
54
10,000
1.48
X
-2
10
1.85
X
io~3
87
100,000
3.91
X
-3
10
8.94
X
10-4
77
1,000,000
5.12
X
10
4.61
X
-3
10
10
Zone 2 local dose rates, mrem/y
100
5.03
X
io~4
4.70
X
lO"4
7
1,000
3.29
X
1
o
HI
1.49
X
-4
10
55
10,000
7.63
X
-4
10
9-6.8
X
-5
10
87
100,000
5.90
X
O
1
1.36
X
-4
10
77
1,000,000
8.19
X
-l
10
8.14
X
io"1
r>
Nonspecific dose rates, man-rem/y
— ¦ 11 TO mm-mm—m————I II n — Mil I nWH
100
7.09
X
-2
10
6.85'
X
-2
10
3
1,000
1.47
X
io"3
1.25
X
, -3
10
15
10,000
1.81
X
10~2
8.75
X
-3
10
52
100,000
4.57
X
io"1
1.26
X
io-1
72
1,000,000
1.19
1.16
3
aCase 49 has the environmental decay constant for land surface and
surface water increased by a factor of 100.
151
-------
transport time t for a specific radionuclide. Thus
t = _2_ „ 2 = JL d n ^
fct U (v /R ) v a* (7~3)
p d p
This approximation of the travel time indicates that as the value for
K , and therefore for R^, increases, the transport time to a given point
of discharge for the associated nuclide increases. For each set of
ground water seepage velocity, distance, other rock properties, and
radionuclide half-life, there is some value of K, above which; 1) the
d
transport time exceeds the length of time studied, or 2) radiodecay
diminishes nuclide activity to insignificant levels during transport.
In such cases, risk analysis may be considered insensitive to values
greater than this border value.
Using Eqs. 7-1 and 7-3 , the approximate transport time versus K.
d
for a distance of 10 km and several velocities is obtained and shown
as curves in Pig. 7-3 . it should be noted that these curves neglect radio-
decay. The top curve, for a velocity of 4 x 10 m/d, represents the velocity
used for the AMRAW cases. The other two curves are for higher velocities
by factors of 10 and 100 respectively. The top curve indicates that for
6
K > 10, the transport time for 10 km is > 10 y. Thus, for these con-
d
ditions, if is determined to be, for example, approximately 100, a
precise value need not be obtained as the value of 100 is an order of
magnitude greater than the border value of 10. Similarly, if the assess-
ment time is limited to 100,000 y, K = 1.0 becomes the border value.
a
Actually, a small margin above these values should be allowed to pro-
vide for the leading edge which begins to arrive before the peak con-
centration.
An auxiliary program containing the leaching routine, the ground
water transport routine (which solves the equivalent of Eq. 6-7} , and
the decay factor (DECFAC), was applied to two radionuclides having long
half-lives. Representative points for the peak concentration travel
times for the two nuclides are shown in Fig. 7-3, The results indicate
that travel times calculated by AMRAW programming lie on or close to
curves obtained by the approximate calculations. Shorter half-lives
would skew the concentration curve toward shorter times because of
152
-------
O Cs-135. t.
T Np-237, t,
Transport distance x_
Porosity e
Density p
10 km
0.15
2.3 g/cm*
0.01
0.1
1
10
Kd, cm^/g
100
Figure 7-3,
Transport time versus K, at several
ground water velocities.
15 3
-------
removal of later "arrivals" fay decay.
Extension of the approximate calculations with Eqs. 7-1 and 7-3
obtain the families of data listed in Table 7-4 . It should be pointed
out that the values involved in these calculations are based upon a
density to porosity ratio of p/e = 2.3/0.15 = 15.3. Hence, the results
also apply to higher density rock with greater porosity, and visa versa.
Definition of the appropriate assessment time period, distance to ground
water discharge and ground water velocity determines the border value of
K,. There is no advantage in expending effort to obtain precise values
a
of K, when they are substantially greater than the border value. A
a
general relationship becomes apparent. The border value of is
(K ) . ~ v T/x (7-4)
d border p
where v is the seepage velocity, T is the limiting transport time, and
P
x is the applicable distance to discharge. A nominal combination which
fits the conditions reported here is:
^ £ 10¦ cm3/g
d border
for v = 4 x 10 ^ m/d I (7-5)
P 1
T = 106 y
4
x = 10 m,
Variations for other values of v , T, and x vary the border value on the
P
base of Eq. 7-4 as follows:
= T/x) (7-6)
d border p
where A is the proportionality constant
(K,). x n. 4
d border ^ 10 • 10 = 25 n_7)
v T -3 6 ' (7 '
p 4 x 10 • 10
(b) Widths of Concentration Peaks. The widths of the concen-
tration versus time peaks at a distance of interest following a pulse
release need to be examined to make certain that adequate calculation
154
-------
Table 7-4, Border Values of for
Transport in Ground Water
Distance
x, m
Velocity
v , m/d
P
Time
T, y
Kd
cra^/g
Rd
5,000
0.004
io6
19,
290.
0.04
tl
190.
2900.
0.4
M
1900.
2.9 x 104
0.004
io5
1.8
29.
0.04
11
19.
290.
0.4
If
190,
2900.
10,000
0.004
106
9.5
2800.
rr
o
V
o
II
95.
1500.
0.4
II
950.
1.5 x 104
0.004
io5
0.89
15.
0.04
M
9.5
150.
0.4
II
95.
1500.
20,000
0.004
106
4.7
73.
0.04
ir
47.
720.
0.4
if
470.
7200.
0.004
io5
0.41
7.3
0.04
ii
4.7
73.
0.4
ii
48.
70.
155
-------
resolution is provided. An auxiliary computer program is applied
to Eq. 6-7 to define the tops of the curves previously shown in Figs.
6-14 and 6-15. The results are shown in Fig. 7-4 for K, = 0, 1.4, and
d
10.5. These values correspond to nuclides Tc-99 or 1-129, C-14, and
Np-237 respectively. As these graphs neglect radiodecay, they also
apply to other nuclides having the same values. For reference pur-
poses, the widths at half-maximum are indicated.
These are summarized in Table 7-5 , and are the basis of the sub-
dividing of time increments for ground water transport calculations,
described in Section 6.C.l.e. This discussion applies to the procedure
for calculating the average ground water concentration during each main
time increment by averaging the calculated concentrations at each sub-
interval and superimposing the results for the sequence of pulse releases
which simulate a band release. At times greater than 10,000 y, the
current application uses main time increments of 10,000 y and then
100,000 y. These are subdivided into 1000 y sub-intervals when <
1.0 to accomodate the indicated widths as narrow as 1600 y. The 100,000
y main increments are subdivided into 20,000 y intervals for >_ 1.0,
which appears to be adequate for the much broader peaks.
Table 7-5. Effect of Distribution Coefficient
on Width of Concentrations Peaks
Distribution Peak Width
Coefficient, at Half
3 . Maximum, y
cm /g
0 1,600
1.4 37,000
10.5 2.7 x 105'
156
-------
A x 10
0 km
1,600 y
Time, y (x 10 )
3-0 -
2.0 "
\ .0 -
37,000 y
15 16 , 17
Time, y (x 10 )
2.7 x 10
Figure 7-4.
11 12 13 14
Time, y (x 10"5)
Widths of concentration peaks
for various values of K,.
a
157
-------
B. CONSEQUENCE /WALYSIS
Computer runs for discrete release events occurring at various times
comprises a consequence analysis. The various potential release events
have very low probabilities of occurrence. It is of interest to calcu-
late the consequences following any such occurrence, but the low pro-
babilities should be kept in mind when evaluating the calculated results.
Also, violent events such as volcanic explosions have serious consequences
independent of a radiological increment.
Table 7-6 summarizes two series of computer runs: 1) volcanic
explosion release to air, and 2) leach incident release to ground water.
The first series considers volcanic explosions occurring at 1,000, 10,000,
and 100,000 y. This corresponds to cut set 2 (Table 6-4) described
-12
earlier, except that instead of a probabilistic distribution (2.4 x 10 /
y), a probability of unity is input as a delta function in the time incre-
ment of interest. Occurrence of the event means erupting within the
volcanism effect zone (Fig. C-l). On this basis, the expected repository
fraction intersected is 0.15 (see Appendix C) and assuming one-half of
the intersected inventory is expelled to the air, the expected fraction
of repository inventory expelled is 0.075. The reader is reminded that
this is a generous assumption. Further, as before, it is assumed that
all expelled radioactive material, subsequently deposited, is not covered
by other deposited material, and is available immediately for environ-
mental uptake without first requiring leaching or chemical modification.
Additionally, population distribution and agricultural activity is assumed
to continue unaffected by the volcano, and no cleanup or evacuation occurs
after the eruption. Figure 7-5 shows the local total body dose rates in
Zone 2 for the several cases. The decrease in dose rate following the
release in each case is due to radiodecay and the token value for the
environmental decay constant (EDC) corresponding to an environmental half-
time of 30,000 y. Case 33 assumes the rate of environmental decay is
increased by a factor of 100 (half-time of 300 y), resulting in a much
more rapid decline in dose rate following a release at 1,000 y. Fig.7-6
gives the corresponding nonspecific dose rates. The hump at later times
is due to buildup of Ra-226 (see earlier Fig. 6-31).
158
-------
Table 7-6. Summary of Consequence Analysis
Cases for Volcanism and Leaching
Incidents
1. Volcanic explosion release to air.
Case No. Occurrence Time, y Other Description
i i i.i. i 'J i.
32 1,000
33 1,000 Environmental decay
rate increased, x 100.
34 10,000
35 100,000
2, Leach incident release to ground water.
Case No. Initiation Time, y Other Description
50 100
51 1,000
52 10,000
53 100
Distribution coefficients,
K_, reduced, * 20.
a
Table 7- 7. Summary of Integrated Doses for
Discrete Events of Volcanic Explosion
Release to Air
6
10 y Integrated Dose
Local, Zone 2 Nonspecific
Case No. Occurrence Time, y {mrem) (sian-rem5
32 1,000 9.77 x 107 3.81 X 10®
33 1,000 (EDC x 100)3 5.42 x 106 6,92 x 10 7
34 10,000 5.76 x 107 4.49 x 109
7 9
35 100,000 2.37 x 10 8.66 x 10
a
Environmental decay constant increased by factor of 100,
159
-------
5
0
Volcanic occurrence at:
Case 32 1000 y
4
0
env i ronmen ta1 decay
rate increased by fac-
tor of 100
10,000 y
100,000 y
3
0
2
- Note: Probability of
volcanic occurrence is
estimated to be 2.k x
10-'2 per year.
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
Time (years)
Figure 7-5. Average annual local total body dose to indi-
vidual in Zone 2 from all nuclides following
discrete violent volcanic events occurring at
various times.
160
-------
Volcanic occurrence
at:
_ Case 32 1000 y
33 1000 y,
environmental decay
rate Increased by fac-
tor of 100
3*»
W
Ik 10,000 y
35 100,000 y
H32
\\
Note; Probabi1ity of
volcanic occurrence is
estimated to be 2,k x
10"' per year.
1
32
33
33 1
3i»
35 11
1
1
1
»
10
Figure 7
10'
10*
10
}QJ 10
Time(years)
6. Average annual nonspecific total body dose from
all nuclides following discrete violent volcanic
event occurring at various times.
161
-------
Table 7-"7 lists the values from integration of dose rates over the
entire study period of 10 y (area under each curve in Figs. 7-5 and
7-6). It is seen that the total impact of local dose decreases as the
time of assumed occurrence becomes later. On the other hand, later
occurrences have greater total nonspecific dose impact as a result of
greater inventories of Ra-226 at times of release. An increase of EDC
by a factor of 100 reduces the total local dose impact by a factor of
18 and nonspecific close impact by a factor of 55 (Case 33 versus Case
32). Appendix M presents summary tables of dose rates from Case 32 for
Zones 1 and 8 and nonspecific, by organ at several times.
The second series of consequence analysis runs (Table 7-6) considers
initiation of leach incidents from interconnection of aquifers by offset
faulting at times of 100, 1,000, and 10,000 y. This corresponds to cut
set 10 (Table 6-4} described earlier, except that instead of a probabi-
-7
listic distribution (1.4 x 10 /y), a probability of unity is input as a
step function with the step occurring in the time increment of interest.
The step function is used to cause the leach incident to continue indef-
initely (fracture pathway for water flow remains open). This assumes
that closure or healing of the fracture does not occur or is offset by
dissolution of salt. Figure 7-7 shows plots of local dose rates in Zone
2. The curves for Cases 50, 51 and 52 become nearly coincident after 10^
y. Similarly, Fig. 7-8 shows plots of nonspecific dose rates. The con-
tributors to dose are 4 radionuclides having estimated distribution coef-
ficients, Kd (Table 6-10), less than approximately 15 and relatively long
half-lives (rules out Sr-90): C-14, Tc-99, 1-129, and Np-237. However,
as can be noted from Appendix N summary tables of dose rates from Case 50,
Tc-99 comprises virtually all of the dose rate totals prior to Np break-
through. At later times,, approaching 10 y, almost all of the total is
from Np-237.
Case 53 investigates the effect of substantial decreases in the K,
d
values. For this case, all K. values are reduced by a factor of 20; K,
d d
for radium is thereby reduced from 70 to 3.5. The effect is to diminish
the retardation of the previously noted nuclides plus introducing addi-
C
tional nuclides previously retarded to beyond 10 y. The corresponding
increase in local total body dose rate in Zone 2 is shown in Fig.7-7 ,
and the nonspecific dose rate in Fig. 7-8 . Tc-99 again dominates early
162
-------
Leach incident initiated at:
Case 50
1000 y
10,000 y
100 y, reduced
by factor of 20
Note: Probability of leach
incident by offset faulting is
50, 53
-2 -
Time (years)
Figure 7-7. Average annual total body dose to indivi-
dual in Zone 2 from all nuclides following
discrete leach incident initiated at
various times.
163
-------
10
lo1
10'
10
10"
10
10
Leach incident initiated at:
50
100 y
51
1000 y
52
10,000 y
53
100 y, Kd
reduced
by factor
of 20
Note: Probability of leach
incident by offset faulting Is
estimated to be 1x 10~7 per
year
2 _
50,53
50,51,52
10' 10'
Figure 7-8,
lO3 10
Time (years)
k
io-
10
Average annual nonspecific total body dose
from all nuclides following discrete leach
incident initiated at various times.
164
-------
time periods but Ra and then Np become the major contributors at later
6
times approaching 10 y. This is discussed further in Section 8.C.
£
Table 7-8 lists integrated dose rates for the 10 y study period
for the discrete leach incident cases. It may be noted that integrated
results are not greatly sensitive to the time of initiation, though some
reduction occurs as the time of initiation is delayed. Reduction of K,
6 d
by a factor of 20 increases 10 y integrated local dose by a factor of
over 300 and nonspecific dose by a factor of close to 60,000. This
illustrates the high sensitivity to K^,.
165
-------
Table 7-8. Summary of Integrated Total Body Dose for
Discrete Leach Incident Events
Case No.
Initiation Time, y
7 x 10 y Int
egrated Dose3
10^ y Integrated Dose
Local, Zone 2
(mrem)
Nonspecific
(man-rem)
Local, Zone 2
(mrem)
Nonspecific
(man-rem)
50
51
52
53
100
1,000
10,000
100 (K reduced)13
d
1.30 x 104
1.23 x 104
1.02 x 104
, .-10
1.47 x 10
3.97 x 107
3.80 x 107
3.27 x 107
12
3.01 x 10
7.18 x 107
7.04 x 107
5.75 x 107
2.57 x 1010
1.27 x 108
1.23 x 108
1.03 x 108
12
7.29 x 10
a 5
7 x 10 y is prior to breakthrough of Np in ground water discharged in Zone 2.
bK, reduced, * 20.
d
-------
Chapter 8
EVALUATION OF RESULTS
The previous two chapters present and discuss implementation and
results obtained for a base case (Chapter 6) , and for a series of other
cases for sensitivity and consequence analyses (Chapter 7). This chapter
provides additional discussion to extend and interpret those results for
terminal storage in a bedded salt reference repository.
16 7
-------
A. DISCUSSION OF BASE CASE
The base case described in Chapter 6 is a computer run in the pro-
babilistic mode in which several geologic disturbance events are simul-
taneously considered. The probabilistic distribution represents operation
of AMRAW in a risk mode; recall that risk is defined as the product of
probability of occurrence of an event and the consequence of an event
if it occurs. The results from the base case do not represent predic-
tions of environmental concentrations and population dose equivalent
rates. The geologic events have very low probabilities for occurrence
and are therefore unlikely to occur during the time period studied: one
million years. Allowing the events to partially "occur" via the proba-
bilistic method provides a basis for risk comparisions between alternative
repository sites, types of geologic formations, fuel cycles and waste
forms. Also the method allows ranking the various release scenarios
according to relative contributions to long term risk and helps to identify
areas of study requiring additional attention for minimizing risk. The
present status of available geologic data results in large uncertainties
in estimates of probabilities which affects the calculated risk, but
doesn't preclude relative evaluation of various management options. A
preliminary demonstration of AMRAW for another geologic setting is des-
cribed in Chapter 11•
The calculations performed in the base case run (Case 48) in effect
weights the consequences of each event by the year to year probability of
occurrence and sums for all events considered. On this basis, calculated
dose rates are very low, as illustrated by the summary map in Fig. 6-16.
The highest calculated dose rates are obtained for Zone 1 which is the
immediate area around the site. Integrating the local total body dose
rates over the 10^ y period (from Appendix K: average annual local dose
to individual, total for all nuclides, total body, Zone 1) obtains 6.2 x
3
10 millirems or an average annual rate of only 0.006 millrems/y. The
corresponding integrated nonspecific dose from agricultural products in
the entire study region (from Appendix K: average annual nonspecific dose
to population, total for all nuclides, total body) is 6.9 x 10^ man-rems
or an average rate of man-rems/y.
166
-------
The total food production in the region, slimmed from Table 6-19,
is: 2.96 x 10 g/y above surface food, 1.17 x 10 g/y meat, and
1.36 x 1011 g/y milk. If the average daily intake per person is 250 g
above surface food, 300 g meat, and 1000 g milk [Bh71, K£76], the total
production rates correspond to the intake rates of 3.2 x 10^, 1.1 x
106, and 3.7 x 10^ persons, respectively. Thus, while the quantities
of each type of food are not in balance, the total represents the food
for close to one million persons. This means that any of the results
_6
presented for nonspecific dose or dose rate multiplied by 10 approxi-
mately represent the maximum individual dose or dose rate from the
nonspecific category. For example, the average rate of 0.7 man-rems/y
mentioned in the previous paragraph represents a maximum individual
-6 -7 -4
rate of 0.7 x 10 =7x10 rems/y = 7 x 10 mrem/y. Actual average
dose rates to individuals in the population would be much less than
indicated by this procedure; exported food becomes greatly diluted by
noncontaminated sources prior to being consumed by the population.
169
-------
1. Environmental Receptor Significance. The release scenarios
evaluated for the base case result in approximately three times as much
material dispersed directly to land surface and surface water as by
finely divided expulsion into the air (see Table 6-4, and in a later
section, Table 8-6) . Releases calculated to ground water depend upon
non-linear leaching behavior but are generally greater than the releases
to the other receptors (see sample results in Appendix K). However, as
observed in Section 6.D. {see Figs. 6-32 and 6-34), the contributions
to dose rates at time up to 700,000 y from releases to ground water are
smaller than from the other receptors due to sorption and low ground
water velocity. An exception is ground surface contribution to nonspe-
cific dose rate, which drops below ground water near 10,000 y (Fig. 6-34).
The only radionuclides showing up at discharge points (10 km distance in
Zone 2 or 20 km distance in Zone 8) are: C-14, Tc-99, 1-129, and Np-2 37.
The Np isotope begins to appear in Zone 2 after 700,000 y, but the peak
concentrations would not arrive in this zone until well after 106 y.
Ra-226 with K, = 70 assumed (and precursors not less than this value),
d 6
does not emerge within 10 y.
It is assumed here that the fracture from offset faulting sufficient
to interconnect aquifers above and below the disposal horizon intersects
an average of one row (250) of canisters. It is further assumed that
the containers have disappeared through corrosion and that each cylindri-
cal monolith of waste incorporated in glass has fractured into ten pieces.
It is, of course, possible that a fracture from faulting may not inter-
sect any canisters, in which case there would be a time lag for salt dis-
solution prior to the onset of waste leaching. If further study indicates
that, on the average, more than the equivalent of one row may be exposed
by this process or that additional groups of canisters become exposed
with time due to salt dissolution, modified input data can reflect these
conditions.
It was noted in Section 6.D. (see Figs. 6-32 and 6-33) that in zones
where surface water is a major source of drinking water, surface water
becomes the most significant receptor for local dose rates over most of
the time range. In the absence of drinking water dominance, air becomes
the most important receptor.
170
-------
The integrated concentration in air is primarily from resuspension
from accumulated land surface contamination. An incremental release to
3
air leads to an average integrated concentration, (pCi-y)/cm , in a
given zone as the plume moves over the zone. Deposition onto the land
surface plus other direct releases to the land surface produce a calcu-
lated continuous accumulation subject to reduction by radiodecay and
environmental decay. During each time increment a small fraction of the
accumulation is, on the average, continuously resuspenaed in air near the
land surface. In these calculations, a resuspension factor for the desert
terrain is taken to be 100 times the U. S. average (see Section 6.C.l.b.).
Table 8-1 illustrates the method for determining the percentage of air
concentration which is due to resuspension from AMRAW output, and Fig,
8-1 is a plot for this example. The fraction from resuspension for the
first release increment (30 - 40 y) for the various zones and for the
other cases reported in this volume range from 30 - 75%, but the approach
to 100% is similar to the example illustrated. Increased environmental
decay constant (EDC) tends to delay the reaching of 100% because of slower
net accumulation of land contamination.
2* Most Significant Radionuclides. The 25 radionuclides used in
this study were screened from the several hundred initially present in
the waste. The screening method [Lo74b], described in Vol. I, Section
4.B., selected the most significant nuclides over the full 10 y time
range on the basis of a hazard measure defined as the Curies of a given
radionuclide in a quantity of waste (such as from one metric ton of fuel)
divided by the corresponding Radiation Concentration Guide (RCG) value
[CFR2Q1, The screening does not consider behavior in movements through
the geosphere and biosphere. It is therefore of interest to rank the
nuclides in order of importance as the calculations progress through the
model from the source term to population dose.
The 10 nuclides comprising the greatest mass in the model repository
at a reference time of 100 y are summarized from Appendix J in Table 8-2 .
However, the most significant nuclides shift as one progresses through
the model. The 5 most significant nuclides are listed at each stage and
for several times in Table 8-3, with base case data taken from AMRAW out-
Put (sample in Appendix K and Appendix L). The same top 5 appear for source
171
-------
Table 8-1 . Determination of Resuspension Contribution
to Integrated Air Concentration
Time Increment
Air
Land
% of
tui Si usyeiisiuii
j-iiLeyxdiea
End Time
Length,
At
Cone
VJCi-y
D
Surface
VCi
Cone.
c
Resuspension^
Air
Cone.
3
2
y
y
cm
cm
40
10
1.13
X
io-19
4.73
x IO-12
4.73
X
io"21
4.73
X
io"20
41.9
100
10
3.96
X
O
1
H
3. 31
x 10"11
3.31
X
io"20
3. 31
X
io'19
83.6
1,000
100
4.58
X
io~17
4.51
x 10"10
4.51
X
io-19
4.51
X
io"17
98.5
10,000
1,000
4.13
X
io"15
4.12
x 10"9
4.12
X
io"18
4.12
X
io"15
99.8
100,000
10,000
1.51
X
io"13
1.51
x 10"8
1.51
X
io"17
1.51
X
io"13
100.
1,000,000
100,000
2.34
X
io"13
2. 34
x 10"9
2.34
X
io"18
2. 34
X
io"13
100
Example for Tc-99, Case 48, Zone 1.
^Data from Appendix K.
c
Resuspension concentration is product of land surface concentration, fraction of zone which is land
-9 -1
(1.00 in Zone 1), and resuspension factor (1 x 10 cm ).
d
Integrated resuspension is resuspension concentration multiplied by length of time increment.
-------
Case *t8
Tc-99 in Zone 1
Time, y
Figure 8-1
Percentage of integrated air
concentration from resuspension,
173
-------
Table 8-2 . Radionuclides Comprising Greatest
Mass at 100 Years
Nuclide Mass, g Accumulated %
of 25 Nuclide Total
Tc-99
1.54E+8a
25
Zr-93
1.33E+8
46
Np-237
8.56E+7
59
Am-243
7.20E+7
71
Cs-135
6.80E+7
82
Fu-240
4.16E+7
88
Cs-137
3.11E+7
' 93
Aro-241
1.81E+7
96
Sr-90
1.15E+7
98
Pu-239
7.58E+6
99
Nuclide Total
6.28E+8
100
, 54E+8 denotes
8
1.54 x 10 .
term activity and for the environmental input concentration (land surface
activity per unit area) in both Zones 1 and 8 at each time, although there
is some shifting in order. The two zones used in this sample cover the ex-
tremes of a desert area with no surface water nor agricultural crops (Zone
1) and an area with surface water and extensive irrigated farming (Zone 8).
Going from environmental input concentration to dose rates in Table
8-3 , several changes appear. Comparing the local dose rates for the two
zones, the top 4 for Zone 1 are among the top 5 for Zone 8 over the full
time range except that Th-230 becomes prominent in Zone 1 and Tc-99 in
Zone 8 after 100,000 y. The nonspecific dose (associated with largely
exported agricultural products) is dominated during early time by Cs-137
6
and Sr-90, at later times by Tc-99 and Ra-226 and at 10 y by Np-237.
This was illustrated earlier in Fig. 6-30.
Also listed in Table 8-3 are the total body dose rates, total for all
nuclides evaluated and for the top 5 as listed, for both the base case
and for a corresponding case with the environmental decay rate increased
174
-------
Table Q-3. Most Significant Radionuclides at Several
Calculation Stages Versus Time for the Base
Case and Increased Environmental Decay Constant
Time, y Order^ 10^ 103 104 10^ 10^
Source Term
(Activity)
1
2
Cs-137
Sr-90
Am-241
Np-239
Np-239
Am-243
Tc-99
PU-239
Zr-93
Nb-93m
3
Y-90
Am-243
Pu-240
Zr-93
Tc-99
4
Cm-244
Pu-240
Pu-239
Nb-93m
Ra-225
5
Am-241
Tc-99
Tc-99
Np-2 37
Th-229
Environmental Input
Concentration (Land
Surface Activity per
Unit Area)
ZONE 1
1
Cs-137
Am-241
Am-243
TC-99
Zr-93
2
Sr-90
Np-239
Np-2 39
PU-239
Nb-93m
3
Y-90
Am-243
Pu-240
Zr-93
Tc-99
4
Cm-244
Pu-240
Tc-99
Nb-93m
Ra-225
5
Am-241
Tc-99
Pu-239
Np-237
Th-229
ZONE 8
1
Cs-137
Am-241
Am-243
Tc-99
Tc-99
2
Y-90
Np-239
Np-2 39
Pu-239
Nb-93m
3
Sr-90
Am-243
Pu-240
Nb-93m
Zr-93
4
Cm-244
Pu-240
Tc-99
Zr-93
Ra-225
5
Am-241
Tc-99
Pu-239
Np-237
Th-229
175
-------
Table 8-3. (Continued)
Time, y Order 102 10^ 10^ lof 10®
Dose Rate. Total Body
ZONE 1
1
2
Cm-244
Am-241
Am-241
Am-243
Am-243
Pu-240
Pu-239
Th-229
Th-229
Np-237
3
Pu-238
Pu-240
Pu-239
Np-237
Th-230
4
Sr-90
Np-239
Np-239
Th-230
Ra-226
5
Am-243
Pu-239
Am-241
Ra-226
Pb-210
Local Dose Rate (mrem/yr)
Base Case
Case 48
Total all nuclides
Top 5
% of total
2.55E-30
2.38E-3
93.3
5.04E-3
4.94E-3
97.9
1.48E-2
1.47E-2
99.5
3.91E-3
3.88E-3
99.4
5.12E-3
5.12E-3
100
EDC x 100
Case 49
Total all nuclides
Top 5
% of total
2.4IE-3
2.25E-3
93.3
2.32E-3
2.30E-3
99.1
1.85E-3
1.83E-3
99.2
8.94E-4
8.88E-4
99.3
4.61E-3
4.61E-3
100
% change
d
for EDC x 100
-5.5
-54.
-88.
-77.
-10.
Dose Rate, Total Body
ZONE 8
1
Sr-90
Am-241
Am-243
Tc-99
Th-229
2
Cm-244
Am-243
Pu-240
Pu-239
Ra-226
3
Am-241
Pu-240
Pu-239
Ra-226
Np-237
4
Pu-238
Np-239
Np-239
Th-229
Ra-225
5
Cs-137
Pu-239
Am-241
Np-237
Tc-99
Local Dose Rate (mrem/yr)
Base Case
Case 48
Total all nuclides
Top 5
% of total
4.09E-5
3.75E-5
91.7
6.29E-5
6.23E-5
99.0
1.81E-4
1.79E-4
99.0
1.05E-4
1.00E-4
95.4
1.15E-4
1.13E-4
98.0
EDC x 100
Case 49
Total all nuclides
Top 5
% of total
3.90E-5
3.58E-5
91.8
3.06E-5
3.04E-5
99,5
2.70E-5
2.66E-5
98.6
3.99E-5
3.85E-5
96.4
1.06E-4
1.04E-4
97.9
% change
for EDC x 100
-4.6
-51.
-85.
-62.
-S.
176
-------
Table 8-3 . (Continued)
Time, y Order 10^ 10^ 10^ 10 10
Dose Rate, Total Body
NONSPECIFIC
1
Cs-137
Am-241
Tc-99
Tc-99
Np-237
2
Sr-90
Am-243
Ra-226
Ra-226
Ra-226
3
Cm-244
Pu-240
Am-243
Ra-225
Tc-99
4
Am-241
Ra-226
Ra-225
Pb-210
Ra-225
5
Am-243
Tc-99
Am-241
Cs-135
Cs-135
Dose Rate (man-rem/yr)
Base Case
Case 48
Total all nuclides
Top 5
% of total
7.09E-2
7.07E-2
99.7
1.47E-3
1.46E-3
99.3
1.81E-2
1.80E-2
99.2
4.57E-1
4.57E-1
100
1.19
1.19
100
EDC x 100
Case 49
Total all nuclides
Top 5
% of total
6.85E-2
6.83E-2
99.7
1.25E-3
1.24E-3
99.3
8.75E-3
8.74E-3
99.9
I.26E-1
1.26E-1
100
1.16E+0
1.16E+0
100
% change
for EDC x 100
-3.
-15.
-52.
-72.
-2.
aThe base case (no. 48) has environmental half-time of 30,000 y. Case 49
has increased environmental decay constant (EDC) by factor of 100
(environmental half-time of 300 y).
b
The order lxsts the sequence of contribution of the 5 most significant
nuclides, with most significant listed first.
c -3
2.55 E-3 denotes 2.55 x 10
^Percent change for EDC x 100 is the percent change from Case 48 to
Case 49 due to increased rate of environmental decay.
177
-------
by a factor of 100. In most instances, the top 5 nuclides comprise close
to 100% of the total. Increasing the rate of environmental decay reduces
the calculated dose rate, particularly in the middle portion of the time
range, but does not effect the lists of most significant nuclides nor
their order. This is discussed further in Section 8.B.I.
Table 8-4 indicates which of the 25 radionuclides studied are in-
cluded among the top 5 in Table 8-3 at one or more of the times listed,
for each stage through the model. It is seen that 20 of the 25 nuclides
studied each appear among the top 5 in at least one instance. In the
population dose category, only Sr-90 and Cs-137 from the fission product
group are among the most significant contributors to local dose, but
Tc-99 and Cs-135 join in for nonspecific dose. In the actinides and
daughters group, all 16 studied except Pu-241, Am-242m and Cm-242 are
among the most significant for local dose but 5 of them drop out from
the list for nonspecific dose. If the most significant nuclides are
selected only on the basis of population dose rates, the nuclides added
to the list based upon environmental concentrations are; Cs-135, Pb-210r
Ra-226, Th-230, and Pu-238 while those which are omitted are Y-90, Zr-93
and Nb-93m.
3. Completeness. Not all of the release event combinations shown
on the fault tree diagrams (Figs. 6-1 through 6-7) have been implemented
in the base case. Several are properly omitted because they represent
products of two or more very low probabilities (such as volcanogenic
transport to shallower depth coupled with impact by a smaller meteorite
than required for the original depth, as in Fig. 6-2). Two scenarios
included in Fig, 6-4 which have not been evaluated because of lack of
sufficient data are releases to ground water via mine shaft leaks and as
a result of deliberate or accidental penetration by drilling. Reviewers
of this work have inquired about these and some discussion may be helpful.
Leakage to the upper aquifer or more particularly to the surface in
Zone 1 via the mine shaft requires a fracture to furnish a conduit from
a lower aquifer to the disposal horizon, sufficient hydrostatic pressure
to rise to the surface, and failure of the shaft seal (see conditional
gate in Fig. 6-4). In the absence of the lower fracture, an alternate
undefined mechanism for creation of a convective cell from above would
178
-------
Table 8-4 . Summary of Radionuclides
Five Most Significant at
Among the
Same Time
Source Term
Environmental
Input
Dose
Rates
No.
Nuclide
Activity
Concentration
Local
Nonspecific
Fiss
ion and activ
ation products
1
C-14
2
Sr-90
X
X
X
X
3
Y-90
X
X
4
Zr-93
X
X
5
Nb-93m
X
X
6
Tc-99
X
X
X
7
1-129
8
Cs-135
X
9
Cs-137
X
X
X
X
Acti
nides and dau
ghters
10
Pb-210
X
X
11
Ra-225
X
X
X
X
12
Ra-226
X
X
13
Th-229
X
X
X
14
Th-230
X
15
Np-237
X
X
X
X
16
Np-239
X
X
X
17
Pu-238
X
18
Pu-239
X
X
X
19
Pu-240
X
X
X
X
20
Pu-241
21
Am-241
X
X
X
X
22
Am-242m
23
Am-243
X
X
X
X
24
Cm-242
25
Cm-244
X
X
X
X
Number checked 15 15 15 17 12
179
-------
be required. Under present hydrologic conditions [Mr77], the hydrostatic
pressure is not adequate to rise to the surface, though data for changing
these conditions may evolve (see Fig. 6-7). It should be recognized that
a lag time and limited release rates for leaching apply.
Penetration by drilling leads to two categories of consequences:
1) transport to surface via drill cuttings and 2) exposure of disposal
horizon to action of ground water. First, consider the probability for
contacting waste by drilling. The reference repository used here has
62,500 canisters, each 0.3 m in diameter, oriented vertically in an area
2 7 2
of 10 km (10 m ). If a 0.3 m diameter hole is drilled at random
within the repository boundary, a 0.9 m diameter canister effect zone
(analogous to volcanism effect zone in Fig. 6-8) is associated with
each canister. The probability of any one hole entering a canister
effect zone is
62,500 U0.92/4)/107 = 0.004. (8-1)
The expected value of intersection for a hole entering the zone is
2
(0.3/0.9) - 0.11, representing the average fraction of a canister
inventory encountered if contacted by drilling. Thus it would require
250 randomly drilled holes to bring up an average of 0.1 the contents
of one canister. Political control prevents the drilling attempt during
early time decades, but a probability function for later years is re-
quired to more completely evaluate this scenario. Action by ground water
initially affects no more than one canister but if salt dissolution
takes place, additional canisters became effected after time lags. If
appropriate data becomes available, the above release paths can be input
to AM RAW.
Other conditions having some potential for causing migration from
the repository are slow processes such as fracturing overlying strata
from thermal effects. This can be accommodated by AMRAW (see Section
4,c.l.d in Vol. I) if the data becomes available.
While the present implementation in the base case is not represented
as being complete, the low calculated dose rates obtained indicate a
substantial buffer for accommodating other postulated releases.
180
-------
4. Alternatives in Source Term. The source term {inventory at
risk) used for this model repository application of AMRAW is detailed
in Section 6.A. In summary, the accumulated inventory at the beginning
of the terminal storage phase is the high-level waste from reprocessing
of 187,000 metric tons of fuel from a projected mix of reactor types
(primarily light water reactors), with gradual phase in of plutonium
recycle. The waste age at the time of emplacement is 10 y, 0.5% of
U and Pu are retained in the waste, no H, Kr and Xe remain and only
0.1% of I and Br remain in the waste. Adjustment of results for some
variations in source term conditions can be made without reruns of
AMRAW, while other variations are best accommodated by reruns with re-
vised input. The calculated results vary linearly with the total number
of accumulated metric tons if the repository area and reactor mix remain
the same. If the repository area also varies with the accumulation
(as with constant emplacement density) , a small effect is introduced
from changed probabilities of geologic disruption (see alternate demon-
stration, Chapter 11).
The 10 y waste age used in radioactive waste projections [Bk74] is
generally assumed to provide for decay of thermal output by a factor of
more than 10 from that at the time of reprocessing (180 d after irradi-
ation) . Increasing the age of waste prior to emplacement would reduce
the calculated results for times soon after the end of repository
operations, but there is virtually no effect at later times. For example,
a 10 or 20 y shift in the time scale due to emplacement delay is negli-
gible at subsequent times after 1000 y.
Volatile elements driven off from high-level waste during solidi-
fication (such as by calcination and incorporation into glass) are
assumed to be trapped in another waste form. It is expected that regu-
lations will require all iodine to be retained. When defined, this
may be handled by AMRAW with separate runs if analysis of these elements
is needed. The contributions by iodine to local dose rates, for the
cases reported here, is found to be negligible for total body dose and
also for the iodine-sensitive thyroid. That is, other radionuclides
dominate. Table 8-5 summarizes sample output data from Appendix L, for
2one 1 local dose rates and nonspecific dose rates. Domination by other
nuclides is also true for total body nonspecific dose, but thyroid non-
181
-------
Table 8-5 . Effect of Increasing Iodine Retained in
Waste from 0.1% to 100%
0.1% I
(Case 48)
100% I
Total Body
Thyroid
Total Body
Thyroid
Time,
y
1-129
Total
1-129
Total
1-129
Total
%
Incr.
1-129
Total
%
Incr.
Local
D<
ose Rates
Zone 1) , mr<
sm/y
io2
2.76E-12
2.55E-3
8.75E-12
5.99E-5
2.76E-9
2.55E-3
0
8.75E-9
5.99E-5
0
10 3
3.79E-11
5.04E-3
1.08E-10
3.74E-4
3.79E-8
5.04E-3
0
1.08E-7
3.74E-4
0
io4
3.56E-10
1.48E-2
1.00E-9
1.27E-3
3.56E-7
1.48E-2
0
1.00B-6
1.27E-3
0
10 5
1.72E-9
3.91E-3
4.85E-9
4.04E-5
1.72E-6
3.91E-3
0
4.85E-6
4.53E-5
12
iob
4.22E-9
5.12E-3
1.19E-8
6.85E-5
4.22E-6
5.12E-3
0
1.19E-5
8.04E-5
17
Nonspec
ific Dose 1
lates, man-r
em/y
Incr.
Factor
240
io2
1.93E-11
7.09E-2
1.38E-8
a
5.77E-8
1.93E-8
7.09E-2
0
1.38E-5
a
1.39E-5
io3
1.36E-10
1.47S-3
9.76E-8
6.33E-7
1.36E-7
1.47E-3
0
9.76E-5
9.B2E-5
154
io4
4.16E-8
1.8IE-2
2-98E-5
3.15E-5
4.16E-5
1.81E-2
0
2.98E-2
2.98E-2.
945
io5
8. 51E-6-
4.57E-1
6.09E-3
6.09E-3
8.5LE-3
4. 66Et-1
0
6.09E-0
6.09E-0
1000
10 6
4.08E-5
1.19E-0
2.92E-2
2.92E-2
4.08E-2
1.23E-0
3.3
2.92E+1
2.92E+1
1000
aThyroid nonspecific dose due to C-14 and 1-129.
-------
specific dose is due only to C-14 and 1-129; iodine comprises 26% of the
total at 100 y rising to 100% by about 50,000 y. If all of the iodine
in the spent fuel is assumed to remain in the high-level waste instead
of 0.1%, iodine increases by a factor of 1000. From Table 8-5, it may
be seen that this increase in iodine has no effect on the three-significant-
figure total for all nuclides for total body dose rates, either local or
nonspecific. Local thyroid dose does show an increase after 10,000 y,
ranging to an increase of up to 17% at 10^ y. As nonspecific thyroid
dose is due only to C-14 and 1-129, this category increases directly with
1-129 increase. At 10 6 y, for example, the nonspecific total thyroid
dose rate with iodine increased by the factor of 1000 becomes 29.2 man-
rem/y (Table 8-5).
Adjustments of results for variation in the inventory of any other
simply decaying nuclide may be made similarly to the above adjustment for
iodine. Adjustment for large changes in the initial inventory (at the
end of repository operations) of members of decay chains becomes complex
and is best handled by rerunning AMRAW with the changes. In discussion
of AMRAW-B, the Economic Model (see Table 8-12 in Vol, III), it is shown
that attribution of total damages over the 10 y study period to the
initial inventory attributes 5.2% of the total to plutonium initially
present. That is, damages from plutonium daughters are attributed back
to parents in proportion to the initial mass distribution. Therefore,
as an approximation it may be noted that an increase of Pu by a factor
of 200 leads to an increase in the 10 y damages (such as an integrated
dose rate) by a factor of (1 -.052) + 200 x .052 = 11. Disposal of spent
fuel (with 100% of the Pu) as waste instead of fuel reprocessing waste
(with 0.5% of the Pu) increases the Pu content of the waste by a factor
of 200, assuming enriched U fuel in both cases. A factor somewhat lower
than 200 applies to a comparison with the source term used here, as the
latter involves some increased Pu use through recycling. Disposal of
spent fuel as waste increases the potential environmental damage due to:
1) a large increase in Pu inventory, 2) a possible increase in leacha-
bility if not processed into a leach resistant waste form and 3) an
increase in repository area required for the large increase in waste
0
quantity. Further, total damages over the 10 y study period also attri-
bute 45.2% to neptunium, 11.3% to americium, and 38.3% to technetium.
183
-------
With reprocessing, the option of partitioning and transmutation is avail-
able to reduce environmental damage by elimination of a portion of these
few elements.
B. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS DISCUSSION
Sensitivity analysis, described in Section 7.A. consists of a series
of runs with AMRAW-A plus operation of a portion of AMRAW-A as an auxil-
iary program for leaching and ground water transport studies. In this
chapter, extension of the AMRAW run results is discussed, followed by
discussion of chain decay and reconcentration effects.
1. Extension of AMRAW Sensitivity Results. The series of computer
runs for the sensitivity analysis (Table 8-6) handles one release sce-
nario or combination at a time to determine relative contributions by
each to the total. Three categories of volcanism (volcanic explosion,
volcanogenic transport, and diatreme) and meteorite impact are examined.
While AMRAW provides for occurrence parameters which are time dependent,
the available data during this study is limited to probability estimates
which are constant with time. Therefore, the results for any of these
sensitivity runs may be scaled up or down linearly with changes in either
the occurrence probability, the expected value of the release fraction,
or their product (probabilistic release fraction). For example, Case 22
is eiqpulsion to air by volcanic explosion. Table 8-6 includes this event,
-12 -1
listing the probability of occurrence as 2.4 x 10 y and the release
fraction as 0.075. If a probability increase by a factor of 10 is to be
considered, it is not necessary to rerun AMRAW. Any result of interest,
including an environmental concentration or dose rate, increases by the
factor of 10. The relative effect on the total of all events can be
evaluated by adding the change increment to the corresponding base case
(Case 48) and comparing the base case before and after incrementing
with the component change. Similarly, values of the release parameters
for other events are listed in Table 8-6 (summarized from Table 6-4).
Thus, Cases 23 and 24 (Table 7-2) relate directly to "Volcanogenic
Transport" in Table 8-6; Case 25 is a combination of "Volcanic Explosion,"
"Volcanogenic Transport," and "Diatreme." Linear extension of results
for a combination such as this require each component to be changed by
184
-------
Table 8-6. Summary of Release Parameters for
Volcanism and Meteorite Impact
Release
Receptor
Parameter
Volcanic
Explosion
Diatreme
Meteorite
Air
Probability of
occurrence (PROB)a
Release fraction
-12
2.4 x 10
-12
2.4 x 10
1.0 x lo"13
(Al)b
0.075
0.006
0.05
Probabilistic
-13
1.8 x 10
1.4 x 10~14
5.0 x 10~15
release fraction
Volcanic
Transport
Land
Surface
Probability of
occurrence (PROB)
-12
8.1 x 10
-13
1.0 x 10
Ctf
Surface
Release fraction
Water
(Al)
0.075
0.05
Probabilistic
-13
6.1 x 10
5.0 x 10~15
release fraction
Probability of occurrence is annual probability of volcano or diatreme
occurring within the "volcanism effect zone," or a direct strike on
repository area by a meteorite.
b
Release fraction includes effected area of intersection (of repository)
and fraction of intersected inventory which is transported.
Probabilistic release fraction is (PROB) x (Al).
185
-------
the same factor; otherwise, rerun of AMRAW is preferred. The meteorite
category relates to Case 26. If discrete events are being considered
instead of a probabilistic distribution, the probability becomes equal
to unity at the appropriate time.
Comparisons between different events also allow scaling one event
to simulate a different event. For example, from Table 8-6, comparing the
probabilistic release fractions, meteorite impact results scale as 5.0 x
-15 -13 -2
10 /1.8 x 10 =2.78x10 times volcanic explosion to air, or
5.0 x 10 15/6.1 x 10 13 = 8.20 x 10 3 times volcanic transport to land
surface or surface water. For the non-probabilistic mode, comparing
listed release fractions, meteorite results become two-thirds of volcanic
results. As improved data becomes available and the model capabilities
are more fully utilized, particularly with regard to time dependent func-
tions, simple relations for linear extension of AMRAW results may not
apply.
2. Chain Decay and Reconcentration in Ground Water. Chain decay
refers to the behavior of decay series. A member of a decay series may
display a net growth for some time due to decay of one or more precursors,
reach a maximum value, and then display a net decay as the precursors
become depleted. AMRAW avoids using complex chain calculations by use of
the nuclide inventories which are input data for each of the times to be
calculated. The ratio of the quantity of a nuclide of interest at two
times is a factor (DECFAC) which expresses the decay or buildup between
the two times (see Section 4.D.l.e. in Vol. I for details). This works
well when the various nuclides are transported together but some discus-
sion of the behavior in ground water is necessary.
A reconcentration phenomena can occur when different members of a
chain move at different velocities because of different sorption proper-
ties. The effect occurs when the daughter migrates faster than the
parents. During a band release from continued leaching into ground water,
the slower moving parent becomes distributed over a distance in the medi
with daughter production by decay all along this path. An increment of
daughter leaving the source and moving faster than the parent encounters
additions along the way from the parent. Each addition moves with the
daughter, augmenting the concentration. This reconcentration continues
186
-------
until the daughter outruns the leaching edge of the parent, is offset by
decay of the accumulating daughter, or discharges. A detailed analysis of
this phenomena is given by Burkholder and Cloninger [Bu77a].
However, for reasonable values of the distribution coefficient, K,,
d
and low ground water velocities, the peak reconcentration effect occurs
close to the source. For example, a base case calculation [Bu77a] was
2 34 230 226
made for the last two members of the U -»¦ Th -*¦ Ra decay chain,
assuming water velocity of 0.3 m/d, retardation factors for Th and Ra
of 50,000 and 500 respectively, and a period of 10,000 y for complete
leaching. The resulting maximum reconcentration occurred at a distance
of only 50 m (0.03 mile) and the effect disappeared by 1000 m (0.6 mile).
At more rapid leach rates, the effect diminishes and moves to shorter
distances; at longer leach times to 10 y, the peak approaches 160 m
(0.1 mile) and disappears by 1600 m (1.0 mile). These distances vary
linearly with water velocity. Therefore, considering the velocity of
-3
4 x 10 m/d used for Los Medarios, the corresponding distance from the
-3
source to a peak reconcentration effect would be only (4 x 10 /0.3) x
50 = 0.7 m! While this very interesting phenomena should be kept in mind
during repository site studies and separate test calculations made as
insurance, it does not appear to warrant adding provisions to AMRAW.
Next, consider other effects of chain decay on calculated migration.
In AMRAW, a band release is simulated by a series of pulse releases.
Downstream concentrations are superimposed and averaged during each time
increment calculated. Briefly the process is as follows:
1) The quantity leached during a time increment is accumulated
and released to transport at the end of the time increment with
an initial concentration based upon ground water flow past the
discharge plane during the time increment.
2) The ratio of concentration at the usage or discharge location to
the initial concentration (in the ground water at point of release
to ground water) is calculated, considering sorption and disper-
sion, but not including radiodecay.
3) The result is then corrected for decay (or buildup) by multi-
plying by the factor (DECFAC) previously defined.
In AMRAW, one nuclide at a time is handled. In effect, the way DECFAC
i m
-------
is used assumes that all precursors migrate with the nuclide being con-
sidered. If the radionuclide of interest has no radioactive parent or
if a radioactive parent has the same as the daughter, the simplified
method used in the AMHAW subprogram (CRATIO) correctly accounts for chain
decay. A short-lived daughter of a long-lived parent (e.g., Np-239 daughter
of Am-243 in Table 8-7) may be approximated by setting the value for
the daughter equal to for the parent; the daughter inventory in this
case is dependent upon the parent and in effect moves with the parent.
If both parent and daughter are long-lived, the method in AMRAW overstates
daughter concentrations if the daughter moves faster than the parent and
understates daughter concentrations if the daughter moves slower than the
parent. In this case, an intermediate value of assigned to the daughter
may provide an approximate corrected representation. A complete interpre-
tation of the validity of these simplified calculations depends upon
inspection of the K values determined for the specific site for the
d
nuclides in decay groups to be considered. For nuclides where the travel
time to a usage or discharge point exceeds the time range to be calculated
(i.e., K, exceeds a "border value"; see Section 7.A.2.a), the calculation
d
method becomes moot.
Table 8-7 lists the decay chains involved with the 25 nuclides
included in this study. Several nuclides shown have very short half-lives
and do not influence the ground water transport, but they are included
in the table for completeness. The only nuclides in Table 8-7 (nuclides
in decay series) which show up within 10^ y at a distance of 10 km are
those having < 15: isotopes of Np (Sr decays away early in its migra-
tion) . Other nuclides with low K, such as C-14, Tc-99, and 1-129 are in
d
simple decay and are not affected by chain decay considerations. As
mentioned in the previous paragraph, Np-239 can appropriately be assigned
the K, value of its parent, Am-243. This was not done here but is sug-
d
gested for follow-on work. Substantial reductions in and/or substan-
tial increases in ground water velocity can be encountered before other
decay chain members contribute to consequences of a leach incident. In
Case 53, reduction of K, by a factor of 20 reduces K, for radium from 70
6
to 3.5, and results in appearance in Zone 2 (at 10 km) within 10 y,
peaking at about 700,000 y. The parent of Ra-226, Th-230 (see part (c)
of Table 8-7), correspondingly has K = 10500/20 = 525, giving a
d
188
-------
Table 8-7 . Decay Series Relationships for
Radionuclides Studied
(a)
Thorium Series
-------
retardation factor {from Eq, 6-7b) of R, = 1 + 2.3 x 525/0.15 = 8049,
a
The approximate travel distance for the Th-230 during 700,000 y is only
slightly over 100 m, but its contribution by decay to Ra-226 buildup is
conservatively included by the use of DECFAC. Similarly, Ra-225 (part
(b) of Table 8-7) has the parent: Th-229. Burkholder [Bu77a] indicates
that for Th is ejected to be greater than for Sa for all geologic
« media. The Ra isotopes may be more appropriately represented by the K
d
values for their Th parents, or an intermediate value.
The large uncertainties in available data preclude benefits from
further model refinement at this time. Meanwhile, the provisions in
AMRAW handle chain decay in an approximate indirect manner without requir-
ing complex calculations.
C, CONSEQUENCE ANALYSIS DISCUSSION
The cases run for consequence analysis, described in Section 7.B.,
are divided into two series (see Table 7-6) ; 1) volcanic explosion
release to air, and 2) leach incident release to ground water. Extension
of the earlier discussion is given in the following paragraphs.
1. Volcanic Explosion Release to air, A list of the roost signifi-
cant radionuclides as indicated by the base case (Case 48) appears in
Table 8-3 and is summarized in Table 8-4. In the base case, the various
radionuclides are released a bit at a time according to the probabilistic
distributions of several release scenarios. Now it is of interest to
compare the earlier list with a list of the most significant nuclides
for a one time acute release. Table 8-8 is for a volcanic explosion
release to air at 1000 y. There is some change in the nuclides listed
compared to Table 8-3. In Zone 8, Tc-99 is dropped and Th-230 is added
at 105 yj Tc-99 and Ra-225 are dropped and Th-23o and Pb-210 are added at
106 y. For the nonspecific category, Tc-99 and Ra-226 are dropped and
3
Am-242m and Np-237 are added at 10 y? Tc-99 is dropped and Pb-210 is
added at 106 y. Addition of Am-242m to the summary from Table 8-4 means
that 18 of the 25 nuclides studied are among the most significant contri-
butors to dose at some time following an acute release.
Limited data is available for environmental concentrations to com-
pare with this severe acute event. Table 8-9 compares the calculated
190
-------
Table 8-8. Most Significant Radionuclides Based
Upon Total Body Dose Rates, Versus Time
for Volcanic Explosion Release to Aira
Order*5
io3
io4
io5
io6
Local Dose Rate
Total Body
Zone 1
1
Am-241
Am-243
Pu-239
Th-229
2
Am-243
Pu-240
Th-229
Np-2 37
3
Pu-240
Pu-239
Np-237
Th-230
4
Np-239
Np-239
Th-230
Ra-226
5
Pu-239
Am-241
Ra-226
Pb-210
Local Dose Rate
Total Body
Zone 8
1
Am-241
Am-243
Pu-239
Th-229
2
Am-243
Pu-240
Th-229
Np-237
3
Pu-240
Pu-239
Np-237
Th-230
4
Np-239
Np-239
Th-230
Ra-226
5
Pu-239
Am-241
Ra-226
Pb-210
Nonspecific
Dose Rate
Total Body
1
Am-241
Ra-226
Ra-226
Ra-226
2
Am-243
Am-243
Ra-225
Ra-225
3
Pu-240
Ra-225
Tc-99
Cs-135
4
Am-242m
Tc-99
Pb-210
Np-237
5
Np-237
Am-241
Cs-135
Pb-210
3Case 32, volcanic explosion release to air at 1000 y.
^The order lists the sequence of contribution of the 5 most significant
nuclides, with most significant listed first.
191
-------
Table 8-9. Comparison of Deposition from Volcanic
Explosion Through Repository and 1972
Accumulation from Fallout from Nuclear
Weapons Testing
Land 1972 Fallout
Zone Nuclide Surface2 Accumulation
yCi/cm pCi/cm2
1
Sr-90
a
8.43
X
H
o
1
00
b2.37
x 10 6
2
t> ii
4.03
X
10"10
4
it n
2.19
X
10"11
1
Pu-239
2.33
X
10~2
°2.65
x 10 ~7
2
» ir
1.11
X
io"4
4
ii ii
6.06
X
10~6
3
Case 32, volcanic explosion release to air at reference time of
1000 y.
^1972 worldwide accumulation of Sr-90 deposition from "Radiological
Quality of the Environment," [EPA76], 12.1 MCi, divided by world
surface area, 5.1 x lO^8 cm2 [Hm65].
C1972 cumulative deposit of Pu-239 in New York State [EFA76].
Table 8-10. Total Body Dose Rates Following
Volcanic Explosion Through Repository
1000 y
2000 y
Zone
mrem/y
mrem/y
1
1.12E6b
6.74E5
2
1.75E4
1.20E4
3
1.13E3
7.65E2
4
2.68E2
1.75E2
5
4,62E2
2.99E2
6
3.12E3
1.95E3
7
1.34E3
9.32E2
8
4.97E3
2.78E3
man-rem/y
man-rem/y
Nonspecific
6.51E5
1.32E4
aCase 32, volcanic explosion release to air at reference time
of 1000 y.
b 6
Total body dose rate, total all nuclides; 1.12E6 denotes 1.12 x 10 .
192
-------
deposition from a volcanic explosion (estimated occurrence probability
-12 -1
is 2.4 x 10 y ) with published Sr-90 and ?u-2 39 accumulations from
nuclear weapons testing fallout [EPA76J. Sr-90 would decay within the
1000 y prior to the calculated release such that the land surface concen-
tration from volcanic dispersion is everywhere less than the 1972 accumu-
lated fallout. Pu-239 on the other hand, exceeds the measured environ-
mental value by almost 5 orders of magnitude in Zone 1 (the repository
and volcanism zone) ranging down to a factor of 23 in Zone 4 (the furthest
zone from the repository in the study region).
Total body dose rates, summarized from Appendix M, are listed for
each zone in Table 8-10. The indicated dose rate within Zone 1 is too
high for continuous residence; a one month exposure would be 100 rem.
To place this into perspective, it should be noted that this zone would
certainly be inhospitable for some period of time following formation
of a volcano. In Zone 2, the dose rate is far above regulatory limits
but is not at a lethal level. These results indicate, that while the
volcanic event is very unlikely, an occurrence does appear to provide
time for protection of the population from excessive radiological conse-
quences.
2. Leach Incident Release to Ground Water. The ground water veio-
-3
city used in this study, 4,0 x 10 m/d, is a factor of 6 greater than
the estimated velocity in the principle aquifer above the model reposi-
tory, to provide for uncertainty. Published values of distribution
coefficients, K,, estimated for U, S. western soil and applicable to a
d
non-salt geologic medium are used. Appropriate values for for various
degrees of salinity in Los Medafios area aquifers are not available. The
non-salt values are reduced by 30% as an approximate assumed compensation
for salinity. In addition, one case (Case 53) has all values further
multiplied by 0.05 to provide a more conservative comparison.
A discrete leach incident commencing at a reference time of 100 y is
represented by Case 50. Only 4 nuclides appear in Zone 2 (distance of
10 km) within 106 y: C-14, Tc-99, 1-129, and Np-237. Concentrations
versus time are shown in Fig. 8-2. The calculations is AMRAW include
calculation of leached quantities, ground water transport, and radiodecay
(or buildup and decay in the case of Np-237). The peak concentrations
19 3
-------
-1]
-129
-12
-13
Np-237
-10
-15
-16
-10
Case 50
-12
-17
Time (years)
Figure 8-2. Concentration versus time at a distance
of 10 km following a leach incident
commencing at 100 y.
194
-------
6
for Np (K, = 10.5) do not occur until after 10 yj only the early rises
a
toward the peaks appear. The indicated concentrations are low and the
corresponding dose rates (Appendix N) are negligible. The orders of
importance for the transported nuclides at several times are listed in
Table 8-11.
Also listed in Table 8-11 are the orders of importance for the nu-
clides which appear when K, is reduced by a factor of 20 (Case 53). The
6
lower K. values add 3 nuclides discharging within 10 y: Cs-135 (K, now
a d
7.0), Ra-225 and Ra-226 (1, now 3.5). The maximum concentration of Ra-226
d
is reached at about 700,000 y in Zone 2. With this large reduction in
assumed sorption effectiveness, the maximum total body local dose rate,
4
totaled for all nuclides, is calculated to be 4.72 x 10 mrem/y in Zone
4
2 (reached after 700,000 y) and 1.79 x 10 mrem/y in Zone 8 (reached
6 7
after 10 y). The nonspecific dose rate reaches 1,46 x 10 man-rem/y
£
after 10 y. Note that these are results assuming that the leach inci-
dent does occur at 100 y, though the estimated probability of occurrences
-7 -1
is 1.4 x 10 y and also that is reduced by a factor of 20 from the
nominal values for all nuclides. Again, this demonstrates the sensiti-
vity of ground water contributions to values.
195
-------
Table 8-11. Most Significant Radionuclides Based
Upon Total Body Dose Rates, Versus Time
for Leach Incident Release to Ground Water
Case S31
Reference Time, y
Order
10
10'
10
Case 50
Zone 2 and
nonspecific
1
2
3
Tc-99
1-129
Tc-99
1-129
C-14
Np-237
Tc-99
1-129
Zone 8
1
2
Tc-99
1-129
Tc-99
1-129
Tc-99
1-129
Zone 2
1
2
3
4
5
6
Tc-99
1-129
C-14
Np-237
Tc-99
1-129
C-14
Ra-226
Ra-225
Cs-135
Np-237
TC-99
1-129
Zone 8 1 Tc-99 Tc-99 Ra-226
2 1-129 Np-237 Ra-225
3 1-129 Np-237
4 C-14 Tc-99
5 1-129
6 Cs-135
Nonspecific 1 Tc-99 Tc-99 Ra-226
2 1-129 Np-237 Ra-225
3 C-14 1-129 Cs-135
4 C-14 Np-237
5 Tc-99
6 1-129
aCases 50 and 53, leach incident initiated by offset faulting at 100 y.
Case 53, distribution coefficient, decreased by factor of 20 for
all nuclides.
196
-------
APPENDIX A
SUPPLEMENTARY HYDROLOGIC DESCRIPTIONS
(T. E. KELLY)
1- Qgallala Formation. The Qgallala Formation is rather wide-
spread throughout Lea County, and consequently it is locally present
along the east side of the Los Medanos area. However, the thickness
increases from west to east, and in the project study area the Ogallala
is relatively thin and non-water bearing. This deposit consists
chiefly of calcareous clay and silt, unconsolidated sand and gravel,
and local deposits of lucastrine limestone. All of these lithologic
types are intricately interbedded, which makes it extremely difficult
to correlate different units for a significant distance. This gives
rise to many perched water tables.
Although the Ogallala is not widespread in the Los Medanos area,
the porosity and permeability probably are sufficiently high to act
as a recharge area for precipitation. Theis [Ts37] estimated that a
typical value for the rate of recharge to water-table aquifers in the
southern High Plains is about one-quarter to one-half inch of water
per year. Nicholson and Clebsch [Ni61] estimated that the porosity
of the Ogallala Formation on the High Plains is about 20 percent. In
the Los Medanos area the regional water table generally is present
near the base of the Ogallala or in the underlying deposits. Conse-
quently, most of the precipitation that falls on the Ogallala deposits
will migrate downward to the water table, then laterally—south and
west—to the point of discharge.
2. Alluvium. Unconsolidated alluvium comprise the youngest
aquifer deposits in the Los Medanos area. The alluvium consists of
clay, silt, sand, gravel, caliche, and conglomerate. These are
irregularly distributed; greatest thicknesses have been reported in
the Pecos Valley where test wells have penetrated 200 feet of alluvium;
in other areas these deposits are either thin or absent. Most of the
alluvium is present in the drainage channels, including Nash Draw and
its tributaries, as well as those channels which empty into the
197
-------
Pecos River. Along the Eddy-Lea County border, an area known as the
James Dune area is characterized by aeolian deposits of silt to fine
sand.
In general, the water table underlies the alluvium in the Los
Medanos area except along the Pecos River itself. Consequently few
wells have been developed in the alluvial deposits; most of these
tap perched water tables within the alluvium. As a result, few hydro-
logic data are available for the alluvium. In general, these deposits
are similar to the Ogallala Formation by acting as recharge areas for
the underlying rocks, but they could not be considered as major aquifers
themselves.
198
-------
APPENDIX B
REPOSITORY INVENTORY SOURCE DATA
Table B-l. input Data for Cubic Spline
Curve Fitting Program
¦a input data
• rworEKTiEa or accumulate- io-tear old waste as * function of sge,
a COHCENTMnQHi OKflHS
TlHimSJ
u c-n
BR -90
Y-95
ZR-93
N£{~93rt
0.
*>0.0
5.30&+03
a.300+02
8.440+05
2.69FHOO
5.
4.140+01
3.890+04
1.010+03
6,3UUi06
2.24Jf+0i
10.
1.200+03
1.060+07
2.750+03
I.820+07
7.03rif01
15,
4,070+03
2,240+07
5.020+03
4.000+07
1.660+02
20.
?.990+03
4,;'2Ii+07
i, 100+04
7,720+07
3.3«[*+02
25,
2.170+04
7.110+07
1 .850+04
1,330+08
4*110+02
30»
4.04B+04
4.200+07
1.630+04
1,330+Oft
7.45IH02
40.
4.040+04
4.910+07
1.28P+04
l»33It»Q8
9.29D+02
130*
3,990+04
5.330+04
l,3tt0+03
1,J3D+0S
1 .200+03
330.
3.900*04
3.B4D+04
9,970+00
1,330+08
1.2i0+03
1030,
3,380404
1,220-03
3.S7D-07
1.330+08
1.210+03
3030.
2.810+04
4,570-25
1.190-28
1,330+ 08
1.20D+03
10030.
1.210+04
0.0
0.0
1 , J20*O£J
1.201» + 03
30030.
1.075+03
0.0
0.0
1.310+08
1.1911*03
100030.
2.250-01
0.0
0.0
1.27D+-08
1,150+03
300030.
7.000-12
0.0
0.0
1.14H+08
1 «0titi+O3
1000030.
1.18D"-48
0.0
0.0
8(360+07
7,590+02
TWECTRS)
RA-22S
m-226
TH-299
TH-230
HP-237
0.
4.OOP-OB
1.130-04
7.09P-G3
1.23D+0Q
5.530+OS
3.
3.00D-07
9.B2D-04
7,200-02
9.310+00
4.150+04
10,
2.27D-04
3.430-03
4.110-Q1
2,580+01
1.13H+07
IS,
1.45U-05
1,350-02
2.630+00
5.700+01
2.4SP407
20,
5 • 730-05
4,070-02
1.0*0+01
1,140+02
4.760+07
25.
I.4HD-Q4
9.050-02
2»?1 IH Oi
2,040+02
8.340+07
30 -
I,940-04
9.940-02
3.600+01
2,210+02
813'JtifO?
40.
2,930-04
1.190-01
3,380+01
2.630+02
fl.3«0+07
130.
1,17D-03
5.77D-OJ
2,140*02
i,080+03
0.&4l«+-07
330.
3,10D-03
4.810+00
5.600+02
4.33H+03
9,110+07
1030.
9.770-03
4,300+01
1 * 700+03
1,850+04
9,950+07
3030.
2. 030-02
5.OS0+02
5.190*03
S,950+04
1.040+08
10030.
8.890-02
2.990+03
3 ,630+04
1.960+03
l«OSf<*08
30030.
2.420-01
i.040+04
4.44C+04
S,200+05
1.040+08
100030.
4,7l0~01
2.340+04
1,230+05
1,200*06
l,O4Ii+0B
300030,
1.3*0*00
2,520+04
2.5G0+0S
1.230+06
9.770+07
100*030,
1.490+00
4.4811+03
2.730+QS
2.280+05
7.790+07
TI*E
AH-?41
AM-242H
AH-?43
CH-242
CH-244
0.
5.3911+04
1.040+03
1,080+05
3,050*00
2.660+04
5.
4.680*05
i .090+04
1.170+06
3.090+01
3.7AD+03
10.
2.350+04
8,220+04
9,4S0*U6
2.1611+02
3.920+06
15.
5*9411+06
2,190+05
2,550*07
3.410+02
1.03LH07
20.
1,160+07
4.240+05
4,9R£i+07
1,070+03
1,910+07
25,
J,920+07
4,3701OiS
7.250+07
I.SUO+03
2,47^07
30.
1,930+07
4,230+03
7.2:'«m*G7
i.;»oo+03
2.040+07
4ft,
fi,9r.r<+0*
7,tMi.in?
1 ,4^1^103
1.39A+07
l.tfc •
I, /i'lHu/
J, Vl.iJ+OiJ
/. itflUO?
4.4^0+0*
330.
1,250+07
1.298+05
7.050+07
3.H2D+02
2.090+02
1030.
4.230+04
6.510+03
4.620+0?
1.570+01
4.770-10
3030.
3.540+03
7.120-01
5.520+07
1.720-03
2.400-43
10030.
1 * 020+05
9.730-15
2.930+07
2.350-17
0.0
30030.
1,900+04
0.0
4.700+04
0,0
0.0
100030.
5.390*01
0.0
8.540+03
0,0
0.0
300030.
2.935-04
0,0
3,7Sa+00
0.0
0,0
1000030.
0.0
0.0
3.440+0©
0.0
0*0
TC-99
1-129
Ci-135
CS-137
Hi"? JO
9.441^05
3,46f.+02
3.71P+05
1.210404
2.120-07
7.32I«+06
2.660+03
2.850+04
0.950+04
2«120-04
2. l3l»+07
7.940+03
8»9*0+04
2.540+07
9.100-04
4.701^+07
1,770+04
2,020+07
5.440*07
3.9O0-05
9.0UMQ7
3.40LM04
3.910+07
1.020+06
2.320-04
1»S4DhO0
5.B40+04
6.800+07
1,710+oa
3.250-04
1.S4H+08
5.040+04
4,800+07
1.520+09
4,510-04
1,t«H*OB
S,84lr+04
6,000+07
1.210+03
7,000-04
l.S-U^OH
t;,D4r»f04
4.000+07
1.510*07
4.480-03
1,S40t08
5.040+04
4.300+07
1.4Q0+3S
4.740-02
1.530*00
5.84t»+04
4.800407
1,400-02
7.780-01
1.520+08
S.B40+04
4.B00+07
1.200-22
4*160+00
1.4*D*08
5.ti4lH04
4.VV0+O7
0,0
3 .64 (HOI
1.390+03
5,830+04
4.750+07
0,0
I.270+02
1.11^+06
5.820+04
A.450+07
0.0
2.SG0+O2
5.7/0+07
5.770+04
6,3L0t07
0.0
3,030+02
S. 850+06
5,610+04
5.400+07
0.0
5.4 7H+01
NP-239
PU-238
PU-239
PU-240
FU-241
8,96Ii-02
7. 7ui«* 03
3.040-»04
1.990+04
4."440+03
9.76r«-01
4.950+04
2.360+05
2.040+05
3.400^04
7.820+00
3«920 + 05
7.R1D+05
1.490+06
I«370 ^05
2«1ID+Ol
1,260+06
1.840+04
5.110+04
3.320+05
4.130 r01
3*1BD+06
3,740+04
1.120+07
4.560405
A,OODf01
6.100+06
7. 100+04
1.900+07
1.070+04
6 iOOU+Ol
5.BHU+06
7,130+06
2.330+07
8.470+05
5* 9f t*t01
5,460+04
7,20fH 04
2,940+07
5.30U+05
5,940f0l
2.820+04
7.77D4C4
4.2^0+07
l.iilD+04
S.84U+Q1
4.800+05
Q.9V0+O4
4.210+07
7.730+03
5.4SI> f01
9.570+03
1.300+07
3.*20+07
7.280+03
4.570+91
6.140-01
2.29D+07
3.190+07
6.160+03
2.420+01
1,110-14
4.160+07
1.5611+07
3.420+03
3« 960+00
0.0
4,050+07
2*000t06
4. 400+02
7.070-03
0.0
6, 470+06
1,533+03
1.820+00
3.100-04
0.0
2.220+04
2« 170-02
9.430-08
3.100*06
0.0
1.140*01
4.180-02
0,0
Notes:
^'Concentration" represents the net accumulated mass in the waste
mixture.
bZero value for C-14 at zero reference time is due to a source
table starting at a reference time of 5 y.
199
-------
APPENDIX C
VOLCANISM
The probability of a volcanic disturbance affecting a waste reposi-
tory in the Los Medanos area is estimated by a two-step process:
1) determination of the maximum rate of occurrence in the Delaware
Basin, and 2) modification by the fraction of the basin associated
with the repository.
There have been no volcanos in the Delaware Basin since formation
during Permian time, though there have been some dike emplacements
about 30 million years ago. Assuming the "rate" in the future is no
greater than in the past, and using a nominal age of 200 million years
for the basin, the volcanism probability is estimated by Kudo [Ku76]
to be
P } 1/200 x 106 = 5.0 x 10~9, y"1. (C-l)
A 10-krn2 repository has a 4-km radius "volcanism effect zone" (Pig.
C-l) with area of 50.3 km2. This assumes that the average diameter
of area affected by a volcano is 2.2 km (see later paragraph) and that
the envelope of tangency to the repository represents the effect zone.
The total area of the Delaware Basin is 3.10 x 10^ km2. The probability
of volcanism affecting the repository becomes
P = (5.0 x 10~9) (50.3/3.10 x 104) = 8.1 x 10"12, y"1 (C-2)
1. Repository Fraction Intercepted. In addition to estimating
the probability of occurrence, the average fraction of the repository
inventory affected by such an occurrence also must be estimated. Let
rj = repository radius centered at Cj (Fig. C-l), r2 = volcano effect
radius with center at C2 and r = distance between Cj and C2.
Assuming r2 < r^, the area of intersection, a(r), the shaded portion
of Fig. C-l, as a function of r is:
200
-------
T
r. + 2 r.
/
/
\
/
\
\
r1 + r2 / VOLCANO
VOLCANO
WASTE
\
ATREME
/
\
VOLCANISM EFFECT ZONE
/
1 KM
Figure C-l. Volcanic interception of waste repository.
201
-------
0 if r > (x-j + r2)
a(r) = ^ a complicated function if {r -r ) < r < (r +r ) (C-3)
* Z 12
2
irr2 if r £ {rj - r2)
The average area of intersection of the repository and volcano, occurring
with r < + r2^ ^-s
rl+r2
(ri + 'J'' 0
a(r)rdr. (C-4)
This integral has been approximated by Riemann Sums, for r^ = 1.8 km,
and r2 = 1.1 km, to a value of 1.5 km2. This expected value of the
area of intersection represents 1.5/10 = 0.15 fraction of the repository.
A diatreme is a smaller diameter violent volcanic disturbance.
Assuming for this case, r2 = 0.5 km, and the same volcanism effect zone
as before (4-km radius) (Pig. C-l), the approximation of Eq. C-4 by
Riemann Sums gives an expected value of intersection of 0.210 km2, or
a repository fractional area of 0.210/10 = 0.021. Note that this value
is much lower than for the volcano because: 1) the diatreme area is
smaller, and 2) there is an annular region in the volcanism effect zone
where the diatreme does not contact any part of the repository. The
diatreme repository fractional area used in the base case for this study
is 0.012, which corresponds to r^ = 0.4 km.
2. Alternate Probability Estimate. An estimate of new volcano
occurrence by Smith at Battelle Pacific Northwest Laboratories
[BNWL74] is based upon an observation that an average of one new
volcano every 20 years has occurred during the last 225 years and
obtaining a random probability from the affected repository area
relative to the total area of the earth. If the average core height,
h, of land-sited new volcanos is 430 m and the outer diameter of the
affected area is 5h * 2150 m, the probability of a new volcano affecting
202
-------
a part of a circular 10-km repository can be shown to be
ir (1.8 + 2.15/2)2 _ „ . .-q -i
P = ——— - 2,5 x 10 y 1 (C-5)
20 x 5.1 x 1O0
Q n
where 5.1 x 10 knr is the surface area of the earth, and 1.8 km is the
repository radius. Smith shows that the historical rate of occurrence
of volcanos in mid-continent areas is only 1/28 that of the earth's
surface as a whole. On this basis, the probability for volcanism
affecting the Los Medanos repository, located in a mid-continent area,
becomes
P = 2.5 x 10"9/28 = 8.9 x 10~U, y"1. (C-6)
This is about an order of magnitude greater than the value obtained
in Eq. C-2.
3. Global Plate Tectonic Considerations. Press and Siever [Ps74],
Dewey [Dy72], and other investigators have demonstrated that approximately
98 percent of the volcanoes on earth are situated in close proximity to
global plate boundaries ? the remaining two percent are along emerging
global plate boundaries such as the rift system in Africa.
Dott and Batten [Do76, page 152], postulate that the basic lithospheric
plate mechanism has been operating 2.5 billion years with plate boundaries
and patterns of motion changing drastically several times during this time.
Thus, the average duration of a particular plate boundary is roughly be-
tween 300 and 500 million years and the present configuration has lasted
already about 200 million years. Assuming this to be the case, the pre-
sent boundary between the North American plate and the Pacific plate is
not apt to change for the next 100 to 300 million years and the expectations
of volcanism in the Los Medafios area during this time can be expected to
approach zero probability.
The world geography based upon motion of present day lithospheric
plate movement at 1 to 4 cm/y, in accordance with the predictions of Dietz
and Holden for the next 50 million years [Di70], suggests that volcanic
activity will not occur in the Los Medaflos area during the next one
20 3
-------
million years.
When further work on the global plate tectonic concept is completed '
by geologists, consideration of time and spatial requirements should
enable more realistic assessment of risk due to volcanism. It may be
possible to reduce the probabilities from those used in this study, includ-
ing definition of a time-dependent probability which takes on finite or
increased values only after some period of time.
4. Other Volcanism Processes. Interaction of volcanism with ground
water can lead to a phreatomagmatic explosion and resulting marr tuff ring
and diatreme. There have been no such incidents in the repository area
but there have been many in the Rio Grande rift [AuJ. Kudo places the
probability of such ground water interaction at 0.3 times the basic vol-
canism probability.
204
-------
APPENDIX D
OFFSET FAULTING
(A. SANFORD)
Factors causing offsets by faulting include the mechanisms of
1) basin extension if it were to occur, 2 epeirogenic uplift, 3) subsi-
dence, and 4) volcanism. These can lead to reactivation of old faults
or generation of new ones, with a much higher probability expected
for reactivation of old faults. The relation between old and new
faults is unknown, but the following analysis is based upon the aggre-
gate observed seismic activity. Another mechanism for producing off-
sets is to reactivate old faults by injection of water for secondary
recovery of oil.
1. Number of Earthquakes in The Region Surrounding The Repository.
To assign a probability to offset faulting, begin with the earthquake
activity observed in the area surrounding the proposed repository:
Time period - 1962 through 1974 (13 years)
Number of shocks detected - 10
Magnitudes (local) from 2.5 to 3.3. Ref: Sanford and
Toppozada, 1974 [Sa74] and Sanford, et al., 1976a [Sa ].
2. Relation Between Number of Earthquakes and Magnitude. The
cumulative number of shocks, EN, is related to magnitude by the relation
(Richter, 1958 .[Rc58])
For New Mexico, the value of b is very nearly 1.0 [Sa76]. For the 13-
year time period and area of 5 x 101* km2, we obtain
Geographic limits - 31.4° to 33.4°N
102.4° to 105°W
Geographic area - 50,000 km2
log IN = a - bM .
10 L
(d-i)
log IN = 3.6 - M,
10 :
L
(D-2)
205
-------
Equation D-2 is illustrated by Fig. D-l- For the same 13-year time
period but considering a sn
tory, the relation becomes
. hO ,
period but considering a smaller 1 x 10 kin area around the reposi-
log1QSN = 2.9 - M . (d-3)
This can be extrapolated to 1.637 x 106 years by adding
log Q(1.637 x 106/13) =
the expression becomes
log10(1.637 x 106/13) = 5-10 to the value of "a", obtaining 8.0, and
log IN = 8.0 - M. (D-4)
1U Xj
Note that this equation indicates that the largest earthquake in 1.637
x 10^ years will be of magnitude 8. A magnitude 8 earthquake is a
conservative estimate of the largest earthquake likely to occur in that
region. A more realistic upper limit might be 7.5. This is also the
magnitude estimated by Sanford to be required to create a fracture
adequate to interconnect aquifers above and below a repository in the
Los Medanos area.
3. Faulting. King and Knopoff (1968) [KiC68] established a
relation between magnitude and the fault parameters L (length of fault-
ing) and D (maximum displacement)
log LD2 = 2.24 M - 4.99 (D~5)
1U L
The ratio D/L is generally around 10 4. By substituting this ratio
into Eq. D-5r L and L2 can be calculated •for all earthquakes occurring
in 1.637 x 106 years. The summation of L2 is 20,000 km2 and is the
total fault surface that has some movement during the 1.637 x 106-year
period. The long-term average of fault surface over which some move-
ment occurs becomes
20,000 km2 ^ , ?y
' = 0.012 kmVy. (D-6)
1.637 x 106
4. Permian-Pennsylvanian Faults. Subsurface data from drill
holes reveal a fair number of faults of Late-Pennsylvanian-Early
206
-------
Time Period: 1 962 - 1 97'»
13 years
31 .4° to 33 . 0 N
102.^° to 105.0°W
Geographic Limits;
Area: 50,000 km2
2 . 6
2.8
3.6
3.0
3.2
Loca} Magnitude -
Figure D-l. Number of earthquakes versus local magnitude.
-------
Permian age (Foster, 1974) [Fs74] beneath the salt beds. Well-sampling
of the subsurface is widely spaced or missing over much of the 10^ km2
area surrounding the site. However, judging from the fault density in
areas that have been adequately sampled, the probability of an old
fracture beneath this area is a density of one per 5 km. Only move-
ments on fractures close to the salt have a chance of penetrating the
repository.
5. Probabilities. Assuming the 10 km2 repository may be repre-
sented with linear dimensions of 3.16 km, the probability of a fracture
beneath the repository is 3.16/5 = 0.6. The probability that movement
on a fault beneath the repository will penetrate the repository is
estimated by Sanford at 0.2.
6. Probability of Offset Faulting (yearly basis). Combining the
previous parameters, the annual probability of a fault penetrating the
repository becomes
Average Fault Surface with Movement/Yr. /Prob. of fracture \ /Pro^* °^ \
Total Surface of Permian-Penn. Faults Ibeneath repository! I fault/
0.012 km2/y x Q>60 x 0>20 = 1>4 x 1Q 7f y-1^
1014 km2
(D-7)
A reasonable range for this estimate is 2.9 x 10~8 7.2 x 10 7. These
are the probabilities for use when considering exposure of salt to
circulating water by faulting in this region.
The probability of having rupture through the repository extending
to the surface is estimated by Sanford to be at least an order of
magnitude less than the numbers stated above. The fault trees used
here conservatively use one order of magnitude less for this extension
to the surface.
Assignment of probabilities to the individual mechanisms that can
cause faulting may not be necessary because, regardless of cause, the
result is the same. The only exception would be if the faulting were
induced by water flooding for secondary recovery of oil. In this case,
208
-------
the probabilities might be initially fairly high (if the flooding was
near the repository) and then become very low or non-existent within
a 100-year period. It is still not known whether most if not all of
the observed activity near the repository is caused by water injection
or mining activities.
209
-------
APPENDIX E
METEORITE IMPACT AND SURFACE EROSION
1. Meteorite Impact. The total depth (surrounding plane to bottom
of crushing zone) of a meteorite impact crater is approximately 1/3 of
the diameter. Claiborne and Gera [c£74] report from the literature
the following predicted impact probabilities;
300 m deep (-1 km dia.) = 1 x 10 13/kmZ'y
600 m deep {-2 km dia.) = 2 x 10_1 Vkm2*y
To exhume material from burial at a depth of 800 m, using a relation-
ship by Hartman [ci.74]
N = k D~2'h (1-1)
where N is number of craters with diameter greater than D, and k is an
empirical constant,
-2.it -2.it
!epo=/^soo\ = (3 x 800 \ 2
N600 \D600/ ^3 x 600 J
- (1. 333)-?--lf = 0.501
or
N_. = 0.50 x 2xl0~llf = lxl0~ll+, (km2-y)~1. (E-3)
800
repository, the probability of a direct strike by a
enough energy to exhume material from a depth of 800 m
P = 10 x 1 x 10"14 = 1 x 10"13, y"1. (2-4)
The greatest part of the ejected material would fall back inside the
crater and in the immediate vicinity to form the crater rim. It is
Por a 10 km2
meteorite of
is
210
-------
assumed here that 5 percent of the repository inventory would be
ejected into the air and 5 percent initially dispersed over land
surface (and surface water). The sum, 10 percent, is considered by
Claiborne and Gera to be about 10 times as large as a "reasonable
assumption" for ejected material and it is therefore considered to be
conservative.
2. Surface Erosion. Examples of surface erosion rates [Ge72]
are
Drainage cm/1000 y
Colorado Plateau* 17
Pacific slopes, California 9
Total U.S. 6
According to Claiborne and Gera [C174], Nash Draw, west of the
Los Medanos area, has lowered at 10 cm/1000 y, mostly due to dissolution
and subsidence. A drastic change in the rate of erosion could be
caused by a significant uplift in the area.
Considering a conservative erosion rate assumption of 10 cm/1000 y,
denuding a repository at a depth of 800 m requires
in/? = 8 x 106 y.
0.10/1000 1
Thus, at this erosion rate, there is a probability of 1.0 that the waste
disposal horizon becomes exposed after 8 million years. It appears
that an erosion rate 5 times higher (50 cm/1000 y) would be an absolute
maximum and that there is therefore a zero probability for denuding in
less than
8 x 106 , „
- = 1.6 x 10° y.
The Colorado Plateau is an uplifted region having a high erosion
rate.
211
-------
Accordingly, the probability for exposing the waste by erosion may be
represented by a ramp function as indicated in Fig. e-1.
slope
a
TIME
Figure E-1. Probability function for exposure
by surface erosion.
212
-------
APPENDIX F
ALLOCATION OF RADIOISOTOPES TO ZONES
The first step in obtaining environmental concentrations is to
allocate the initial releases to the environmental receptors in each
zone. This is done using zone dispersion allocation factors (ZONALO).
Values of ZONALO are not calculated within AMRAW but are determined
by application of existing dispersion models or codes, considering the
effective surface areas of land and water in each zone, and are
furnished to AMRAW as input data. As discussed in Section 6.C.1,
dispersion factors for releases to air are obtained by use of data
from an air dispersion code. Direct transfer to land surface (and
associated surface water) and dispersion by ballistic flight, lava
flows, and other processes not covered by air dispersion codes, is
not well modeled at this time. For this purpose, in the absence of
a more complete land dispersion model, a simplified 1/r^ basis is
used.
The density of radioisotope distribution on the ground surface
surrounding the repository as a result of a direct release to land
surface event is assumed to be proportional to
— if r > r
r2 - o
— if
r <
r ,
o
where r is the radial distance to the center of zone 1 and r is the
o
radius of Zone 1.
Let Z. = fraction of total amount released which is deposited in
i
Zone i. Then, if all the release is assumed to be deposited only in
the zones comprising the study region,
213
-------
where
//. W«
z _ Zone i \r^/
1E //few
All zones \r /
ff fcW/M
Zone 1 \ r-y Zone 1 /
dA.
Values for these expressions have been approximated, and the results
are the 1/r2 dispersion allocation factors. When multiplied by the
appropriate receptor area fractions in the zones, the zone allocation
factors, ZONALO(JF,IZ), are obtained for input to amraw, where JF
designates the environmental receptor and IZ designates the zone.
The 1/r2 dispersion for land surface is considered here to be
conservative as it results in distribution to the entire study region,
while the visualized mechanisms more likely restrict the transport to
a relatively small area surrounding the repository. It should be
emphasized that the dispersion basis is not fixed within AMRAW and
results of any other appropriate basis may be used for the input data.
Other bases include: 1) a different distance functional relationship
than 1/r2, 2) a land dispersion model and code, or 3) assumed sensi-
tivity analysis dispersions such as weighting in favor of denser popu-
lation areas.
214
-------
APPENDIX G
BIOACCUMULATION FACTORS IN EDIBLE AQUATIC ORGANISMS
Table G-l. Fresh Water Habitat
Isotope
Fish'
£
Invertebrates®
Aquatic_
Plants®
Waterfowl
C-14
Sr-90
y-90
Zr-93
Nb-93m
Tc-99
1-129
Cs-135
Cs-137
Pb-210
Ra-225
Ha-226
Th-229
Th-230
Np-237
Np-239
Pu-238
Pu-239
Pu-240
Pu-241
Am-241
Am-242m
Am-243
Cm-242
Cm-244
4.55E+03
5.005+00
2.50E+01
3.33E+00
3.00E+04
1.50E+01
1.50E+01
3.00E+03
3.00E+02
5.00E+01
3.00E+01
1.00E+01
•3.50E+00
2.5GE+01
2.50E+01
9.09E+03
1.001+02
1.00E+03
6.67E+00
1.OOE+02
5.00E+00
5.00E+00
1.00E+02
1.00E+02
2.50E+02
5.00E+02
4.001+02
>1.00E+02
1.00E+03
1.00E+03
4.55E+03
5,00E+02
5.00E+03
1.0GE+03
8.00E+02
4.00E+01
4.00E+01
5.00E+02
2.00E+02
2.50E+03
1.50E+03
1.00E+03
'3.50E+02
5.00E+03
5.00E+03
3.00E+03
Notes:
Ref.
3Ref.
: Tp72
: ORNL75
215
-------
Table G-2. Salt Water Habitat
Isotope
Fisha
Invertebrates
Aquatic_
Plants'
Waterfowl
1.79E+03
5.00E-01
2.50E+01
2.00E+02
3.00E+04
1.00E+01
1.00E+01
3.00E+01
3.00E+02
15.00E+01
1.43E+03
6.25E+00
1.00E+03
2.00E+01
1.00E+02
5.00E+01
5.00E+01
2.00E+01
1.00E+03
1.00E+02
1.79E+03
1.25E+01
5.00E+03
2.00E+03
1.00E+03
4.00E+03
4.00E+03
|5.00E+01
5.00E+03
1.00E+02
3.00E+03
1.00E+04
1.00E+01
2.00E+03
ll.
00E+01
3•OOE+03
6.00E+00
3.50E+00
¦ 2.00E+02
1.OOE+03
2.50E+01
1.00E+03
5.00E+03
2.50E+01
1.00E+03
5.00E+03
Notes:
Ref.: Tp72
DRef.: ORNL75
216
-------
APPENDIX H
MEAT AND MILK PRODUCTION RATES
CS. E. LOGAN)
Meat production per head of beef cattle:
Calving rate = 0.85 (per year). 0.20 held back for herd replacement
and 0.20 held back for yearling program. Net calves exported ® 0.45,
at 193 kg (425 lb) average.
0.45 x 193 = 86.9 kg/y
Yearling program grazes calves for another year and adds 136 kg (300 lb)
to a 329 kg (725 lb) total.
0.2 x 329 = 65.8 kg/y
Cull cows, 5-8% at 454 kg (1000 lb)
.06 x 454 = 27.2 kg/y
(the balance from replenishment represents death loss)
Total: 180 kg/y (397 lb/y)
Meat production per head of hogs:
At 7-8 pigs/litter and 2 litters/y, yield is 15 pigs/y per sow.
What is the sow fraction in a hog population? If we assume 1 year for
each pig to become a 95 kg (210 lb average for 200-220 lb range) fat
hog, the average population will be 15 hogs per sow, and if we assume
1 breeding boar per 10 sows,
sow fraction = 1/1 +15+0.1 = 0.062
fat hog fraction = 15/1 + 15 + 0.1 - 0.932
Production of meat per head becomes
0.932 x 95 = 88.5 kg/y (use 90.)
Meat production per head of sheep:
100% annual lamb crop. Graze to 31.8 kg (70 lb) and lamb feed lots
(local) to 45.4 kg (100 lb) fat lambs for export.
1.00 x 45.4 = 45.4 kg/y (use 45.)
Meat production per chicken:
If chicken population represents imported chicks being raised for export
as broilers at 1.59 kg (3.5 lb), and'if 3 months are assumed as residence
time for growth, the annual production rate per head of chicken is
1.59 X 12/3 = 6.36 kg/y
If chicken population represents laying hens used for egg production,
and assuming 200 eggs/y per laying hen and an average of 0.050 kg/egg,
the production rate of eggs per head of chicken is
200 x 0.05 = 10.0 kg/y
217
-------
If it is assumed that two-thirds of the chickens are being raised as
broilers and one-third are used for egg production, the weighted
average production rate per head of chicken is
6.36 x 2/3 + 10.0 x 1/3 = 7.6 kg/y
Meat production equivalent of hay and grain:
Exported calves at 193 kg (425 lb) are conditioned on roughage (hay)
for about 250 days to a weight of 318 kg (700 lb). Average day weight
of hay consumption is 10 kg/day. This represents
(318-193)/(250x10) = 0.050 kg beef/kg hay
or 0.050 kg/d (beef)/kg/d(hay)
After conditioning, they are fattened on a feed lot for 120 days to a
fat cattle weight of 450 kg (1000 lb), on a diet of 9 kg/day grain and
2 kg/d hay. Assuming the weight gain from hay is at the same rate as
during conditioning, the hay "component" is
0.050 x 2 x 120 = 12 kg
The balance of the weight gain, from grain, is
(450-318-12)/(120x9) = 0.111 kg beef/kg grain.
The equivalence factors from above are
hay: 0.050 kg/y (beef)/kg/y (hay)
grain: 0.111 kg/y (beef)/kg/y (grain)
Milk production equivalent of hay:
10 kg/d consumption of hay; 11 £/day milk production
1.1 £ milk / kg hay.
Milk production equivalent of drinking water:
64 £/day (17 gal/day) drinking water per producing cow.
11/64 = 0.17 I milk / I water
Meat production equivalent of drinking water:
40 5,/day (approximately 10 gal/day) drinking water per head; 180 kg/y
meat production per head
180/(40 x 365) = 0.012 kg meat/& water
The resulting meat production and milk production rates for each zone
in the region are compiled in Table H-l and Table H-2 respectively.
218
-------
Table H—1. Meat Production
Zone 123 4567 8
Range land:
I
1
Cattle (1000's)
0.3
54.7
100.
39.
53.
71.
140.
0
kg/y (180/head)
5.4 E4
9.85 E6
1.80 E7
7.02 E6
9.54 E6
1.28 E7
2.52 E7
0
Sheep (1000's)
0.2
43. S
1.3
12.9
15.6
21.3
165.7
0
kg/y (45/head)
9.00 E3
1.96 E6
5.85 E4
5.81 E5
7.02 E5
9.59 E5
7.46 E6
0
Total kg/y
6.30 E4
1.18 E7
1.81 E7
7.60 E6
1.02 E7
1.38 E7
3.27 E7
0
Cultivated land:
Beef from exported hay
75% of hay
>
(106 kg/y)
0
0
3.6
4.7
39.
22.5
145.
86.
kg meat/y (,05/kg)
0
0
1.80 E5
2.35 E5
1.95 E6
1.13 E6
7.25 E6
4.30 E6
Hogs (1000's)
0
0
1.8
1.6
14.8
6.4
5.2
4.5
kg/y (90/head)
0
0
1.62 E5
1.44 E5
1.33 E6
5.76 E5
4.68 E5
4.05 E5
Chickens (1000's)
0
0
16.5
59.6
282.9
28.2
21.7
200.
kg/y (7.6/head)
0
0
1.25 E5
4.53 E5
2.15 E6
2.14 E5
1.65 E5
1.52 E6
Total kg/y
0
0
4.67 E5
8.32 E5
5.43 E6
1.92 E6
7.88 E6
6.23 E6
Note: Zone 1 is the repository site; Zone 2 is the portion of Eddy County not in Zone 1 or 8; Zone 8 is
irrigated land in Eddy County.
-------
Table il-2. Milk Production.
Zone 123 456 7 8
Milk cows
0
0
679
360.
384.
1680.
2490.
721.
£/y
0
0
2.73 E6
1.45 E6
1.54 E6
6.75 E6
1.00 E7
2.89 E6
25% of hay.
106 kg/y
0
0
1.2
1.6
13.
7.5
48.3
28.8
milk equiv.» fc/y
0
0
1.32 E6
1.76 E6
1.43 E7
8.25 E6
5.31 E7
3.17 E7
Total milk, l/y
0
0
4.05 E6
3.21 E6
1.58 E7
1.50 E7
6.31 E7
3.46 E7
Note; Zone 1 is the repository site; Zone 2 is the portion of Eddy County not in Zone l or 8; Zone 8
is irrigated land in Eddy County.
-------
APPENDIX I
SUPPLEMENTARY BIOLOGY DISCUSSION
(J. R. GOSZ)
The study area near Carlsbad is an area which is not suited to dry-
land farming because the soils are sandy and rainfall is low and unde-
pendable. The area is suitable for native pasture and wildlife habitat?
therefore, the major link between contamination in the study area and
the effect on humans is expected to be through consumption of sheep,
cattle or game species. The plant production in the area can be ex-
pected to range between 70 and 440 kg per hectare (400 to 2400 pounds
per acre) of air dry forage depending on whether the site is in poor
or excellent condition.
The study area is subject to severe wind erosion if the plant
cover is seriously depleted. This condition may be an important factor
in the transfer of contamination in the study area to human habitation
to the east (Hobbs, New Mexico) and northeast (Lovington, New Mexico).
A preliminary list of species of the Los Medanos area has been com-
piled. The species of the area which are expected to interact with the
human populations by one of several means are listed in Table l-l. The
plant species are involved primarily as the dominant forage species
for animals which may be in the human food chain. The animals listed
may be human food items or may be species which are attracted to human
dwellings (e.g., house mouse).
Nine species on the Federal endangered or threatened species list
are reported to use the area (Burrowing Owl, Lesser Prairie Chicken,
Peregrine Falcon, Prairie Falcon, Bald Eagle, Ferruginous Hawk, Long-
billed Curlew, Mountain Plover, Snowy Plover). All the species are
terrestrial species, except the Snowy Plover which is listed as an
aquatic species. All species are at least a secondary step in the
food-chain after primary producers, but many are carnivores and are
therefore the third step or higher in the food-chain. The State of
New Mexico considers two species in the area as endangered (McCown's
Longspur, Pupfish species). The pupfish are found in many ponds and
221
-------
sink-holes throughout the area and thus would be in immediate contact
with any contaminated surface water. Considering full-time residence
of many species in the area of concern, or the level in the food-chain,
these species would be subject to at least the levels of radiation
that man would receive. Various environmental relationships potentially
could be altered by a release of radionuclides in the area of the
disposal sites.
Predator species, including many endangered species, would be
subject to the highest levels of radiation accumulation. If radiation
levels cause a decrease in predator numbers, prey species including
rodents, rabbits, etc., may increase. These species are herbivore
consumers and would therefore decrease the amount of vegetation.
The area is an ecotone between Chihuahuan and desert grassland-
shrub communities. An increase in vegetation removal, as already
caused by grazing impact, would increase woody-shrub perennials. These
shrubs would accumulate more airborne dust contamination of radionuclides.
Also, this would decrease grazing capacity for cattle and change the
values used in the terrestrial model. Any cattle grazing in this area
would then be forced to shift diet to perennial species and thus ingest
higher levels of radiation.
222
-------
Table l-l. Species in
The Human ;
Mammals
House mouse
Blacktail jackrabbit
Desert cottontail
Mule deer
White-tailed deer
Pronghorn
Birds
Mallard
Pintail
Shoveler
Green-winged teal
canvasback
Redhead
Lesser prairie chicken
Scaled quail
Mourning dove
House sparrow
House finch
Brown towhee
Vascular plants
Shrubs and Trees-.
Estafiata
Mesquite
Shirmery oak
Los Medanos Area Interacting with
Mus muscuius
Lepus californicus
Sylvilagus auduboni
Odocoileus hemionus
Odocoileus virginianus
Antilocapra americana
Anas platyrhynchos
Anas acuta
Spatula clypeata
Anas carolininsia
Aythya valisinaria
Aythya americana
Tympanuchus pallidicinctus
Callipepla squaraata
Zeniadura macroura
Passer domesticus
Carpodacus mexicanus
Pipiko fuscus
Artemisia frigida
Prosopis juliflora
Quercus havardii
223
-------
Grasses:
Sand bluestem
Silver bluestem
Little bluestem
Side-oats grama
Black grama
Blue grama
Hairy grama
Lovegrasses
Giant dropseed
Needle-and-thread
Forbs:
Milkvetches
Fremont goosefoot
Croton
James hiddenflower
Spectacle pod
Buckwheat
Stemless hymenoxys
Bladderpod
Plains blackfoot
Evening primrose
Beard tongue
Caterpillar-weed
Indianwheat
Scurfpea
Threadleaf groundsel
Fendler globemallow
Wrights verbena
Andropogon hallii
Andropogon saccharoiaes
Andropogon scoparius
Bouteloua curtipendula
Bouteloua eriopoda
Bouteloua gracilis
Bouteloua hirsuta
Eragrostis spp.
Sporobolus giganteus
Stipa comata
Astragalus spp.
Chenopodium fremontii
Croton neomexicana
Cryptantha jamesii
Dithyrea wislizenii
Eriogonum spp.
Hymenoxys acaulis
Lesquerella gordonii
Melampodium leucanthus
Oenothera mexicana
Penstemon buckleyi
Phacelia crenulata
Plantago sp.
Psoralea esculenta
Senecio longilobus
Sphaeralcea fendleri
Verbena wrightii
224
-------
APPENDIX J
OUTPUT LISTING OF AMRAW INPUT FOR BASE CASE
1- Directory of AMRAW-A Output Tables. Table J~1 lists the
titles of tables in full output from AMRAW-A. The output tables are
divided into six sections.
2. Output Listing of Base Case AMRAW Input. Table J-2 is com-
puter output from Section 1 of output, which provides tabulations of
Base casea input data for the following variables (defined in the main
text):
Definitions of environmental inputs and probability inputs.
Release Model probabilities and related data.
Grams of elements in waste at start of terminal storage.
Grams of radionuclides in waste versus time.
DC1, DRC, RKD and other ground water parameters.
EDC
DISPN
ZONALO
ZONDEP
AREAW
ADJl and ADJ2
VOLINT
BIOFAC
DOSFAC
SFull run base case for terminal storage phase, Case No. 48, all
probabilistic releases.
225
-------
Table J-l. Directory of AMRAW-A Output Tables
dumber of Table Combinations
Total
Description
Nuclides
Zones
Organs
Environ.
Receptors
SECTION 1. Data Input
1. Output listing of AMRAW input.
(20
pages)
SECTION 2. Release to Environment
1. Release Fractions by Each Cutset, RELOUT
2. Release Increments to Preliminary Environmental
Input Receptors, R1J, from All Release
Events, Ci
3. Concentrations at Environment Input Receptor,
R2TOT. Units: JF = 1 pCi-y/cm^, JF = 2 yCi/cm^,
JF - 3 and 4 uCi/cm^.
25
25
25
8
(4 in each
table)
25
25
200
SECTION 3. Local Dose to Individual
1. Average Annual Local Dose to Individual, MAN1L,
mrem/y.
SECTION 4. Nonspecific Dose to Population
25
8
(8 in each
table)
200
1. Average Annual Nonspecific Dose to Population,
MAN 111, manrem/y .
25
(8 in each
table)
25
-------
Table J-JL Directory of AMRAW Output Tables (continued)
Total
Nuclides
Zones
Organs
Environ.
Receptors
SECTION 5. Total Dose by Receptors
1. Average Annual Local Dose to Individual,
MAN2LF for JF = 1 to 4, MAN2L for Total,
mrem/y, Total for All Nuclides.
8
8
(4 in each
table)
64
2. Average Annual Nonspecific Dose to Population,
MAN2NF for JF = 1 to 4, MAN2N for Total,
manrem/y, Total for All Nuclides.
8
(4 in each
table)
8
SECTION 6. Dose Summary Tables
1. Average Annual Local Dose to Individual,
MAN1L, in Zone , mrem/y.
(25 in each
table)
b . o
up to 8
(8 in each
table)
¦ C5
40
2. Average Annual Nonspecific Dose to Population,
MANIN, manrem/y.
(25 in each
table)
b
up to 8
{8 in each
table)
C5
40
Total Number of Tables
627
Note:
a. All output tables, except Section 6 are for 50
time steps, 0 to 10^ years.
b. Individual zones may be specified.
c. Section 6 may call for a table for each of all
times beginning with 100 y or skip some times;
5 tables result if call for every ninth time.
-------
Table J-2.
Output Listing of Base Case AMRAW Input
*» DC#1 HIT TON 0F ENVIRONMENTAL INPUTS *~ OEFJNITICN OF PROBABILITY INPUTS
Jf
DEFINITION
IFLAG
DEFINITION
—
1
Al R
0
PROBABILITY (PR08I CONSTANT
2
GROUND SURFACE
1
STEP FUNCTION AT TIWE TP CHANGES P«OB BY AMOUNT
CP
3
SURFACE HATER
2
RAMP FUNCTION AT TP CHANGES PSD0 0* SLOPE CP
4
GROUND «ATER
3
EXPONENTIAL FUNCTION AT TP CHANGES PROS 9V TINE
CONSTANT
4 DELTA FUNCTION* AT TIM£ IP RELEASE TO ENVIRONMENT IS AA1
PROGABILITY ANO RELATED DATA
JF NJF J HJJ
AA|
IFLAG
TP
CP
tsJ
to
03
I
1
t
2
Z
2
3
2
2
*
3* 006-02
T. SOE—02
6. OOE- 03
3*30£-0S
%» OOE-02
7*50£- 02
J« 30E—OS
9.OOE-02
?.50E— 02
0,0
1* QOE-l3
2* * OE—1 2
2.40E-12
UOOC 00
0*0
1•OOE—13
S.IOE-I2
1 * OOE 00
I*00£ 00
0«0
1 »00E 00
1*OOE"S3
1*00E 00
8.I0E-I2
1«00£ 00
i* o oe oo
1« OOE 00
1»40E-0 7
0
0
o
o
2
0
0
0
o
2
O
O
o
o
0
0
o
0
0. 0
0. 0
0. 0
0. 0
U 60 0QQE 06
0* 0
0* 0
o« o
0. 0
1* 6O0OOE 06
0.0
0» 0
0. o
0* o
0. 0
Oft 0
0. 0
0, 0
o*o
o.o
o«o
0*0
U&60006-0F
o. 0
0. o
0, 0
0*0
1*36000£~07
(WO
0*0
0«0
0*0
0*0
o«o
OoQ
a» o
«» SELECTED RES I DUAL ELEMENTS IN WASTE
GRAMS AT START OP TERMINAL STORAGE
for TOTAL FUEL * 137000*NETH1C TONS
C
4.04E
04
SR
U26C
OS
Y
a« 34E
07
IU
6* 95E
08
n a
I o 21 E
03
TC
!•**£
oe
I
1«34E
OS
CS
A. OSE
OB
pa
«• oaE
02
R A
2* 96£-
•01
TH
I. S2E
07
NP
e»35E
07
PU
3. 93£
07
AH
<9* 2*E
Q?
CM
2. 55£
07
-------
Table J-2. (continued)
• • SELECTED KAOlQWija. JDES IN WASTE
CdA"S IN nASTC VERSUS TIME IN TEARS
to
hO
ID
0*
0.0
S*39£
05
1.38Z
02
8«44£
OS
2»6?E
00
9.64E
OS
3«4«e
02
3.71E
OS
1*21£
06
2.12E-07
s*
6* 1 4£
01
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-------
APPENDIX K
SAMPLE AMRAW BASE CASE DOSE CALCULATION OUTPUT
Sample output for the full run base case for terminal storage phase,
Case No. 48, all probabilistic releases, for output Sections 2 through
5 are presented in the appendix as follows:
1. Tc-99 (Table K-l)
(a) Section 2. Release to Environment.
1) Release Fractions by Each Cut Set, RELOUT.
2) Release Increments to Preliminary Environmental Input
Receptors, R1J, from All Release Events, Ci,
3) Concentrations at Environment Input Receptor, R2TOT,
Zones 1 and 8. Units: JF =1, pCi-y/cm^; JF = 2,
2 3
pCi/cm ; JF = 3 and 4, yCi/cm .
(b) Section 3. Local Dose to Individual.
1) Average Annual Local Dose to Individual, MAN1L, mrem/y,
Zones 1 and 8.
(c) Section 4. Nonspecific Dose to Population.
1) Average Annual Nonspecific Dose to Population, MAN1N,
man-rem/y.
2. Pb-210 (Table K-2)
(Same sequence as for Tc-99).
3. Totals for All Nuclides (Table K-3)
Section 5. Total Dose by Receptors.
1) Average Annual Local Dose to Individual, MAN2LF for JF =
1 to 4, MAN2L for Total, mrem/y, Total for All Nuclides,
for each of 8 zones.
2) Average Annual Nonspecific Dose to Population, MAN2NF for
JF = 1 to 4, MAN2N for Total, znan-rem/y, Total for All
Nuclides.
243
-------
Table
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1
i.rrc-iA
0*9
0. 0
aooo.
2. A 51—1 ?
3.»««-}1
i*JfE-14
0*0
0.0
600?.
2*91E5-I7
2*06--il
l.4|*-|4
0.9
0*0
709C#
3.36C-I7
3*A1£—1i
1«y3e-|A
2.32£-3A
0. 0
8619*
VS0--I7
3.6SC-11
I.9*E-iA
7.I2E-2*
0.0
90 00*
<-.21C-1?
A.27^-ll
1 .9IC-14
7.27C-21
0* 0
toooa-
1?
«*««C-11
1.03S-1A
O. 0
a>oo<33.
a.765-J6
#«0ts-ll
4.77S-U
A.fe^f~»l
0*0
3eona«
1.|5f-J1
I.17C-09
0.A7E-II
A.iitr-u
0* c
AOO'O^*
2.1t>E-04
l*»0C-O9
«.1&£-10
O.o
SOO90.
i.r«£-i«
2*1 e£-oa
t*nl£-0«
«.I2£"|0
0*0
OCOM.
1.«2J!-I3
A.l«5-0#
2*a*5-a«
7. 00C-*! 0
o.a
rooff'Q.
1.2)1-11
0* 39^-OJ
2*30^-«<9
2.6BC.-10
o.a
j*ao oo.
A.AO^-iJ
7.J 7E-P#
2.04?-»9«
0* 0
COD 01*
B»3 7C-0«
2.31C-00
7. 116-*l 0
0.0
tOflOTJ.
fc.4S.'-Jt
1.9 6C-DV
t*VJ?.-lO
0. fi
200001.
2.172-12
2. O6E-0S
A. ft iC - 10
l.l&r-u
0. o
J0000rt*
e.2r«-l i
2. 7a£-0»
J.uOS-Q*
A«%vr~i a
0.0
A 000 3 J*
9.21C-0O
A.3/I-G*
2.26£^tO
o.a
So09*l«t-0»
3.ll'-0<
2.31E-10
o. e
a.Tic-M
2.22T-09
ua*r-io
0*0
TOfO-iO.
A.i-Jf-14
3.«^e-o<»
1 ."592-01
1.tar-io
0*0
*0090,}*
S.06--K
2.60C-O9
1*1 j*-00
J.S3C-11
Q. 0
«00991«
;> J5<£-1*
2-351-09
4»A«2- 1 C
e*2U-il
0*0
Ioooooo*
I.C.7S-14
1.52C-0-9
6 * 2 2£ - 10
-------
Table K-l-b, Average Annual Local Dose
to Individual, MAN1L, In
Mi11irems/Year
2OKE* t m. NUCLIDE® TC-99 K*
ti«e
0.
s.
10.
15 .
20.
2b.
3Q.
40.
5D .
60*
70 .
BO »
90 «
100 *
200-
300 »
*00*
500 •
600 m
700.
600*
900 *
1000.
2000.
3000.
4000.
S000.
-5 0 DO.
7000 .
@000 .
90C0 *
10000 •
20000.
3 0 000 *
40000.
soooo,
60000.
7oaoo.
80000.
scooa.
4 00500 .
200 000.
300000.
400000.
sooooo«
600DOQ ,
700000,
800000 .
900000 »
1COOOOO,
TOT soor
0.0
0*0
0*0
0.0
0.0
c.o
0.0.1,036-12
1 .4 6E-12
1.B9E- 12
2.33E-12
2.76E- 12
3,19E-12
3.626-12
7. 936-1 2
1.22E-1 I
1,656-11
2.08E-11
2.51E-1 I
2.92E-11
3.336-11
3.76E-U
4.18£- 11
3.385-11
l.24E~i0
I.64£-1 0
2.02E- 10
2.39E-10
Z.75E-10
3.1OE— A 0
3.44E-I0
3.77E-10
7.37E-10
9.62E-10
1« 12E-0?
1.23E-09
1.3 i E —09
1.35E-09
1.386-0?
1.3 8E-09
i ,386—09
3. 036-09
2.1 7E-00
1.53E-09
ucae-09
7.63E-10
5. 466-10
3.956-10
2.896-10
2. I3E-10
G| tract
0.0
0.0
0. 0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
5.86E- 10
8.33E-10
1•QBE—09
1. 326-09
U57E-09
1.82E-09
2.06E-09
4.52E-09
6.96E-09
9•4IE—09
I.186-08
1*43£-0a
1.66E-00
1.906-06
2«14£—08
2.386-08
4-# 776— 08
7#O9E-O0
9.34E-08
1.I5E-0 7
I.36E-07
1.576-07
1.7?E-07
I*96£-07
2.15E-07
4.20E-07
5.486-07
6.38E-07
7.016-07
7.44E-07
7.74E-07
7. 846" 0 7
7.876-07
7.86E-07
t. 726-06
1» 23E—06
8.71E-07
6#I3E-07
4.3SE-07
3#1 IE—07
2.256-07
I,65E-07
W22E-07
gonads
0.0
0.0
c.o
0*0
0.0
0«0
0.0
1.036-12
1.46E-12
I.896-12
2.336-1t
2,76E— 12
3.19E-I2
3.62E-12
7.93E—12
1,226-1i
1.6SE-U
2.08E-1t
2.51E— 11
2. 92E~-11
3.336-11
3.765-11
4.iae-1i
8.38E-I1
1.246-10
1.646-10
2,026-10
2.J96-10
2.7S6-10
3.10E-10
3,446-JO
3.776-1©
7.3 7E—10
9.626-10
1•I2E-09
1 .236-09
I.31E—09
1.3SE —09
1.386-09
U38E-09
1.38E-09
3,036-09
2.I7E—09
1.33E-09
1.08E-09
7 * 63E—I 0
5.46E-10
3.9SE-IC
2.89E-10
2.13E-10
Lives
0.0
0 .0
0.0
0.0
o.o
o.o
0.0
3.83E—|2
5.436-12
7.03E-12
8.63E—12
1»02E—11
I.lOE-ll
I.346-11
2.94E-11
4.54E-U
6.13E-H
7,72 e-u
9.306—11
t .OBfc-lQ
I.24E-I0
ft.39E-I0
1 « SSE—10
3.I16-10
4.6i e-io
6.G9E-10
7.S1E-I0
8 .886-10
1.02E-09
I.156-09
1.28E-09
1.40€-09
2.74E-09
3.576-09
4.1 6E— 09
4 .57E-09
4 * 856—09
S.02£—09
5.11E—09
S.136—09
S.I2E-09
I.126-08
8.05E-09
S.68£-09
3.99E-09
2 .03 6—09
2,03E-09
I.47E-09
1 .07E-O9
Tm92E-10
LUNGS
0.0
0.0
0,0
0.0
0.0
c.o
o.o
8.3 4E-09
1,1 BE—OS
I.53E-08
1.88E-GB
2.23E-Q&
2.S8E-08
2.92E-08
&,4i£-oa
9.88E-08
I.33E-07
I ¦ 6 BE—01
2.02E-07
2.36E-07
2.69E-07
3.03E-Q7
3.37E-07
6.77E-0?
i»OOE~06
l.33E-*06
1.63&-9G
1.93E-06
2. 22E—Oti
2.51E-06
2.78E-06
3.04E—06
S.95E—06
7.77E-06
9.05E-06
9.94E-06
I.06E-Q9
1.09E-0S
1.1 IE-OS
1.12E-Q5
I«12E-0 S
2.45E—05
1«7SE—0S
1 .24E—05
8. 6 9E-06
6.I6E-06
4,42E—06
3.20E—06
2.33E—06
I.72E-06
MAHROtf
o.o
o.o
0-0
o.o
0.0
0.0
0.0.I.02E-U
1.44E—1I
1.86E-11
2.29E-U
2. 7IE— 11
3. I4E-U
3•56E- 1 (
7.00E— 11
1.20E-10
1.ezE-to
2.0SE-I0
2,476-IQ
2.aeE-10
3.28E-I0
3.70E-10
4. HE- 10
a.256-10
I.22E-09
1.felE-09
1 *99E —09
3.356-09
3.71E—09
3*056-09
3.38E-09
3.nE-09
7,25E-09
9.47E-09
1 .I0E-O6
1.21E—08
I.296-08
1.33E-08
I •35E-08
1.36E—Ofi
1.366-08
2.98E-08
2. 1 3E—08
I.50E-08
1.06E-08
7,SlE-09
5.306-09
3.B96-09
2.84E-09
2. 10E-09
BONE
0.0
0,0
0.0
0.0
0«0
0.0
0.0
I.02E-1 1
1.446-U
1.866—11
2,296-11
2.7IE-I1
3.14E— iI
3 .366 — t 1
7.806-11
1.20E-10
1.626-10
2.05E—I 0
2.4 76-10
2,086-10
3.28E-10
3.70E-10
4.UE-10
8.2S6-10
I.22E—09
1,616-09
1.99E-09
2.3SE-09
2.71E-09
3.056-09
3.3BE—09
3.716-09
7.2SE-09
9.47E-09
1.10E-0S
1*21E—08
1.29E—08
1.33E-08
I*3 SE—0 8
1.36E-08
1«366-08
2.986-08
2.I3E-08
I .506-08
1 .OQE-08
7»516-09
5,386-09
3,896-09
2.3 46-09
2.1OE—09
thyroid
0.0
O.o
o.o
0.0
0,0
0.0
O.O
0.0
O.o
0.0
o.o
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0,0
O.o
0.0
0,0
0,0
0,0
o.o
0.0
0*0
0,0
o.o
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
O.o
O.O
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0 .0
0.0
0,0
0,0
o.o
246
-------
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*-*njr)«tmoh.*o*»>a)0iw
-------
Table K-l-c. Average Nonspecific Dose to Popu-
lation, MAN1N, In Man-rem/¥ear
** AVERAGE ANNUAL NONSPECIFIC DOSE TO POPULATION, MAMN, IN N'ANREMS/YEAR
NGSSFECIFIC
... NUCL I0E— TC-99 K=
6
TI ME
TOT BODY
GI TRACT
GONADS
LI VER
LUNGS
MARROl»
S ONE
°«
Oo 0
0. 0
0« 0
0.0
0» 0
Oo 0
0* 0
5.
OoO
0. 0
0. 0
0, 0
0. 0
0.0
0.0
10.
C.O
Oe 0
0.0
OoO
Oe 0
Oc 0
Oo 0
1 5®
C0 0
0.0
Oe 0
0*0
Oo 0
0o 0
0. 0
20.
0. 0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0. 0
0.0
25s
0. 0
0.0
Oo 0
0.0
Oo 0
Oe 0
Oo 0
30a
Co 0
0. 0
0. 0
0. 0
0.0
0, 0
OoO
40 .
6.91E-
OS
1.34E-
05
6.91E-
oa
2.57E-07
2.19E-
08
lo 74E —
07
lo 74E-
07
50e
1.26E-07
2.45E-
•05
1.26E-
07
4.69E-
-0 7
3c 9 dE-
08
3o18E-
C7
3«1 8H-
07
60s
1.02E-O7
3o 53E-
•05
1.82E-
07
6 e 78 E—07
5a 76E—
Ott
4.59E-
C7
4.59E-
07
70.
2.38E-
•07
4.61E-
•05
2a 38E-
07
8.B4E-
-07
7o 51 £-
ca
5o 99E-
07
5o9 9E-
•07
80«
2.93E-
07
50 69E-05
2o 93E-
07
1 a 09 E—06
9. 2 6£-
oa
7o 39E—
07
7o39fT-
07
90 e
3. 4 8E-
07
6.76E-
05
3.4BE-
07
1.30E-
¦06
1.1OE-
07
6.78E-
07
a.78E—
•07
1 OO o
40 03E-07
7 a 63 £-
¦05
4.03E-
0 7
1.50E-06
la2 7E-
07
lo 02E-
06
le02E-
06
200a
6 7E-
07
la 92E— 04
9e 87E-
07
3.67E-06
3c 1 2 E-
07
49E-
06
2.49E-
06
300 «
1.55E-
¦06
3.01E-
•04
1.55 E—
C6
5.78E-06
4.91E-
07
3a 91=-
06
3o91E-
•06
4 0 0®
ZollE-
¦06
4« 09E-04
2o 11 E-
0 6
7o85E-
¦06
6c6 7E-
07
5. 322-
C6
5o 3 2E-
06
SOQo
2.66E-06
5.16E-04
2o 66 E-
•06
9o 906—06
06
1 a 99E—05
1.69E-
06
Ic 3 5E-
05
1 o 3 5 E—
05
2000 .
1.10E-
OS
2.14R-
¦03
1.10E-
¦05
4 . 11 E-
-05
301
4.26E-
02
3n4 0T-
CI
lo 4 OE —
01
900000.
9. 79E-
02
1.90E
01
9a 79E-
02
3. 64E—
01
3«09E—
02
2.47E-
01
?o4 7E—
01
ICOOOOOo
7. 1 BE-
02
1.39E
01
7.18E-
02
2.67E-
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2.27 E—
02
1.81Z-
01
1.81=-
01
THYRDIC
Go 0
0.0
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Co 0
0.0
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0,0
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0
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0,1
248
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Table K-2-a. Pb-2]
NAOIOMJU. IDE*
08-210 ¦ |0>
hclcaSc tractions bt each cuTSEt# Metour
to
KD
BO,
BO.
to.
60.
40.
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60.
90.
90.
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200.
200.
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300.
300.
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400*
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500.
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600.
600*
600.
600.
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700.
700.
700.
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6.O7E-09
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6.O7E-09
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Ta]
RAOIOHUCl IDE .
B-210
RE LEASE I4*C REHEMTS TO PRCLlrtlMART ENVIRONMENT t«C>UT
RECEPTORS. A|J. FROM 4LL RELEASE EvENTS. |M CUR1E&
to
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0.0
90QO*
3.9SC-20
3.99C-I*
I.ftIC- 17
0.0
10000.
4*4«e-ia
4*4 fl£-
2
0.0
o.o
100*0.
S»D4E'73
•¦•OVE-14
2.ioe->i7
9.0
20000*
i laec-16
1 .»M-
o.o
0. 0
2QOOO.
t.72E-10
I.77E-13
2.07^-J*
o.o
30000.
3.7U-I6
3.71E-
0.0
0.0
30000.
4.oat-ia
4.19C-I3
4 . 7fi.- 16
O.o
AOOOO.
6.23C-I6
6.23£-
0.0
o.o
400 09*
A. ODE-16
«.9re-l3
7.22E-16
o.o
£0000.
0 «6t5E-) 6
a.tae-
~ ,0
0.0
soooo*
9«*3E-la
9. 7SE--13
9.1 rs-16
o .a
AOOOO*
I.I0E-I«
x.joe-
0
0 .0
0.0
60044.
1.216-1/
1.24C-I2
i.oAe-is
0.0
70000.
i .3i6-ia
1.3l£-
0
o.o
0. 0
TOO 00.
1.4 1 r
1.4 -12
I.202- 1S
0*0
noooo.
1 .50E-JS
I.SOE-
0
o.o
0 .0
aoooo.
i.o&e-i/
1.696-12
i. jie-13
o.o
•J0000.
1.66E-I 9
1 .6CK-~
o
o.o
o.o
90000.
i»04e-ir
1.07E-J-2
1.40E-19
o.a
100000.
i.fioe-i
-------
Table K-2-b. Average Annual Local Dose to
Individual, MAN1L, In Millirems/Year
ZONE' !••• NUCLIDE' PB-210 K> 10
7 1 ME
TOT BODY
GI TRACT
GONADS
LI VER
LUNGS
NARROW
BONE
THYROID
0.
0.0
0.0
0,0
0
• 0
0*0
0*0
0*0
0* 0
s«
0.0
0. 0
0.0
0
• 0
0*0
0.0
0*0
0*0
10.
0,0
0*0
0*0
a
• c
0*0
0.0
0.0
0*0
15.
0*0
0*0
0*0
0
• 0
0*0
0.0
0.0
0*0
20*
0*0
0. o
0*0
0
*0
0.0
0*0
0.0
0*0
26 ,
0. 0
0.0
0.0
0
.0
0«0
0.0
0.0
0.0
30.
0.0
0* 0
0*0
0
*0
0*0
0*0
0.0
0.0
40 •
5*77E— 1 5
3*19E-16
5.66E-15
4
•61E-14
9.43E-13
4.ASE-13
4,876-13
6.4S6-16
50.
1.25E-14
9*15E- 16
1.226-14
9
.49E-14
1*946-12
UOOE-12
1.006-12
1.876-15
60 •
2.22E-14
1.83E-15
2* 155-14
1
*646-13
3.356-12
1 * 736— 12
1*736-12
3.74E-I5
70*
3* 54E— 14
3* 11E—15
3.42E-14
2
* SB E— 13
5.256- 12
2.72e-l2
2.726-12
6,366-15
eo .
5.2 6E-14
4,aie-is
5.08E-14
3
*79£-13
7.716-12
3,996-12
3.99E-J 2
9.S5E-15
90*
7« 4 8E- 14
7.026-15
7* 22E— 14
5
.356-13
1*096-11
3.636-12
5.636-12
I ,44E—14
100.
J.03E-13
9. 8.7 E— 1 S
9.936-14
7
*326—13
1.496-11
7.706-12
7.706-12
2.03E-14
ZOO*
6* 99E-13
7.23E-14
6,72E— 13
4
.856-12
9*846-11
5* 10E-11
5.10E-U
1.496-13
300 »
3.45E-12
3. 64 E— 13
3*3 IE—12
Z
• 38E-U
4« 82E—10
2.506-10
2*5 06—10
7*49E—13
400 •
1 * 09E—11
1 » 166— 12
1.046-11
7
*476-11
1.516-09
7* 856- 10
7.046-10
2 • 3B6—12
500 .
2* 58E—11
2.77E-12
2*4 86 —1 I
1
•77E-10
3*5 96-09
1*866-09
1.666—09
S.70E-12
600*
5* I 5E-U
5. 54 E- 12
4.94E-11
3
•636-10
7«1SE-09
3.716-09
3.716-09
1 . 14E-1l
7C0 .
9* 0 7E—1 1
9.78E-1Z
6,70E-11
6
.21E-IO
i.2e>E-aa
6.536- 09
6.52E-09
2*016—11
BOO »
1.46E- 1 0
1•586— 11
1,406-10
9
•996-10
2* 036—OS
1* 056-08
1 .05E-08
3.256-11
900 •
2.206-10
2.386-11
2*11E- 10
1
• 50E—09
3.05E-08
U58E-08
1.5 86-08
4,906-11
1000*
3* X5E-1Q
3*4| E— 1 1
3.026-10
2
* 156—09
4.366-08
2.26E-08
2.26E-08
7,016—i1
2000.
U80E-09
1.96E-10
1.726-09
I
•23E—OS
2.486-07
1*296-07
1.296-07
4.03E-10
3000 ,
6>S3E—09
7.13E— 10
6.266-09
4
*46£-08
9.036-07
4*686-07
4.6 BE—0 7
i.476-09
4 000 •
1.51E-08
1.65E-09
I,446-08
1
* 03E—07
2. 086-06
1 .086-06
J.08E-06
3*396-09
5000 ,
2*77E-03
3.0ZE-09
2*656-0 8
1
,896—0 7
3*826-06
1.98E-06
1 .906-06
6.22E-09
6000 *
4.44E-03
4.85E-09
4.26E-08
3
•03E-07
6.136-06
3*13E-06
3, 1 BE—06
9.996-09
7000 *
6.52E-08
7.13E-09
6 *256.-08
4
*446-07
9.006-06
4* 67E— 06
4.666-06
1 ,476-08
8000,
9,026-08
9.86E-09
8.656-06
6
*15 6-07
1*2 5E—05
6* 466—06
6.456-06
2*036-08
9000 m
1* 1 9E-07
1* 30E-08
1.14E—07
8
. 126-0 7
1.64E-0S
8.S36-06
8»536—06
2,686—08
10000*
U52E-07
1•66E-08
I .466-07
1
• 04 E—06
2.10E-05
1.096-05
1.096-05
3,426-08
20000.
5* 37E—0 7
5.S7E-08
5.15E-0 7
3
,66 6-06
7,4 1E—05
3*846-05
3.84E-05
1 ,216-07
30000*
1,276-06
1,396-07
1*226-06
6
*676-06
1.766-04
9* 11 E-05
9.10E-05
2.876-07
40000*
2. 1 16-06
2*31E—07
2.026-06
1
.446-05
2.916-04
1 .516-04
1.5 IE—04
4.75E-07
50000.
2.94E-06
3.226-07
2.G2E-06
2
•016—05
4* 0 6E—04
2.J1E-04
2.1 IE—04
6,636-07
60000•
3.73E-06
4.08E-07
3,586-06
2
.546—05
5*156-04
2. 67E-04
2.6 76-04
8.416-07
70000.
4* 446-06
4.866-07
4.26E-06
3
• 03 E—0 5
6.I3E-04
3*18E-04
3*186-04
1 . 006—06
eoooo *
5*086-06
5* 56E-07
4* 87E—06
3
•46E-05
7*016-04
3«63E—04
3.63E-04
1.146-06
90000*
S, 636—06
6.I7E-07
5*406-06
3
•846-05
7.76E-04
4.036-04
4.03E-Q4
1 .276-06
100000*
6*12E—06
6*706-07
5« 876—06
4
.176-05
0*446-04
4.39E-04
4.386-04
1 .386-06
200000*
1.75E-05
1 * 92E-06
1 .686-03
1
.196-04
2.426—03
1•26E— 03
1«2 56—0 3
3.95E—06
3C0000*
I.796-05
1.96E—06
1.72E-05
1
4 226—04
2.476-03
1.2SE-03
1*286-03
4.04E—06
400000*
1.SSE-05
1* 70E-06
1.49E-05
1
• 066-04
2.14E-03
1*116-03
1.116-03
3.49E-06
500000*
U2SE-05
1.376-06
1,206-05
8
• 51 E—05
1.726-03
8.946—04
8.936-04
2.816-06
600000•
9* 78E-06
1.076-06
9*3QE—06
6
.66E-05
1 •356—03
7. 00 6-04
6*996-04
2.206-06
700000*
7. 57E-06
8.29E-07
7* 26E —06
5
* 166-05
1.046-03
5.426-04
5*4 16—04
1.716-06
600000 *
5.826-06
6.37E-07
5.SBE-06
3
•966-05
8. 036-04
4. I6E-04
4*16E-04
1 ,316-06
900000*
4.4QE-06
4.916-07
4.J06-06
3
•058-05
6.I9E—04
3*216-04
3*2 16—04
1 *016-06
1000000 <
3*466-06
3. 79E-07
3* 32E— 06
2
*366-05
4*78E—04
2* 4GE—04
2.486-04
7*fllE-07
251
-------
Table K-2~b. (Continued)
ZONE* 8*«• NUCLIDE" PS-210 K* 10
TIME
TOT BODY
GI TRACT
GONADS
LIVER
LUNGS
0.
0.0
0. 0
o.o
0 «0
0.0
5.
0,0
0*0
0.0
0 .0
0.0
10.
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
IS.
0«0
0*0
o.o
0*0
0.0
20 *
c.o
0.0
0.0
o «o
0.0
25.
0.0
0.0
0.0
0*0
0.0
30.
0.0
0« 0
0,0
0 lO
0 ¦ 0
40 .
4.03E-16
1.05E- 17
4.02E-16
3.64E-15
4.13E-15
50 .
A.99E-16
2.54E-J7
8.95E-16
8 >06E—13
W22E-14
60 .
I.44E-15
4.43E-I7
1 .44E-15
1.29E-14
2.49E- 14
70 •
2.0 4E-1 5
6.75E-17
2.02E-15
1 .80E-14
4.2 86-14
80*
2« 7 OE—15
9.60E- 17
2.67E-15
2•37E-14
6.69E-14
90.
3.4 BE-15
1eJlE-16
3.45E-15
3.03E-14
1.0JE-13
100.
4.3 6E-15
U 73E-16
4.32E-J 5
3.78E-14
1.45E-13
200.
6.29E-14
1.86E-IS
6.26E-14
3.62E-13
1.00E-12
300 •
2« 85E— 13
8s 8DE-15
2.64E-13
2*546-12
S.C5E-12
400.
7.79E-13
2.56E-14
7.74E-13
6*90E-12
1.62E-11
soo.
1.61E-12
5.656- 14
1 .60E-12
1.42E-11
3.69E-U
600 *
2.82E-12
1.06E-\3
2.80E-12
2 *46E—11
7. 8 IE- 1 1
700 *
4.43E-12
1.76E-13
4.40E-12
3,8S£-11
1.386— 1 0
800 .
6.50E-12
2.72E-13
6.43E-12
S.598-t1
2.24E— I 0
900 •
0. 996-12
3.95E- 13
8.88E-12
7.69E-11
3.38E-10
1 000 •
1.19E — 1I
5.4BE-13
1.18E-U
1 .01E-10
^.85E-I0
2000 .
I.51E-10
4.63E-12
1.50E-1O
1.34E-09
2.69E-09
3000*
5.2 16-10
1.65E— 1 L
5.16E-I0
4.62E-09
9.83E-09
40C0.
1.06C-09
3.55E- 11
1.05E-09
9.36E-09
2.26E-0B
5000.
1* 71E-09
6.Q8E- 11
1. 70E-09
1.50E-03
4.22E-08
6000.
2.45E-09
9.20E-I1
2.43E-09
2.13E-06
6.8 IE—08
7 000*
3.24E-09
1.29E-10
3.21E—09
2.BI E-08
UOOC-07
8000 •
4. 1 1E-09
1.71E-10
4. 07E-09
3.54E-08
1.39E-07
9O00*
5.03E-09
2.18E- 10
4.976-09
4.3IE-00
1.85E-07
10000.
6. 00E-09
2.71E-10
S.93E-09
5.12E-08
2.36E-07
20000.
4.82E-0B
I.46E-09
4.79E-08
4.30E—0 7
8.04E-07
3COOO•
1.I2E-C7
3.42E-09
1 .11E-07
9 e96E—0 7
1.91E-06
40000#
I . 7 IE*"0 7
5.39E-09
1.70E-07
1.51£—06
3. 18E-06
50000.
2.20E-07
7.18E-09
2.1 BE—07
I.94E-06
4.46E-06
60000*
2.6IE-07
8.77E-09
2.59E-07
2.30£-06
5.67E-06
70000•
2.95E-07
1. *>2E-08
2.93E-07
2.60E—06
6.77E-06
80000.
3.24E-07
1*14E-08
3.22E—07
2.B5E-06
7.75E-06
90000.
3.49E-07
1.24E-08
3. 46E-07
3.06E-06
8.61E-06
10C000*
3.70E-07
I# 33E-08
3.67ET07
3 .246—06
9.36E-06
200000•
2.27E-06
6.07E-08
2.26E—06
2.04E-09
2.55E*0S
300000»
2.40E-06
6. JSC-08
2.39E-06
2.16E-05
2.60E-05
400000.
2.08E-06
5.50E-08
2.07E-06
1.87E-05
2.25E-0S
sooooo.
1.67E-06
4. 43E-08
1 .67E-06
1.51E-OS
1.81E—OS
600000.
I.31E-06
3.47E-08
1*31E—06
I.I8E-03
1.426-05
7C0C00 .
I.01E-06
2.696-06
1.01E-0 6
9 .15E—06
I. 10E-03
800000.
7. 80E-07
2.07E-08
7.77E-07
7.03E-06
8. 4 3E-06
900000•
6. OIE-07
1•S9E- 08
5.99E-07
S .42E-06
6.5QE-06
lOCCCOO.
4.64E-07
I.23E-08
4.63E-07
4.196-06
5.026-06
MARROW
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0*0
6.0
0.0
3« 87E— 14
8.376- 14
1.37E- 13
1.91E-13
2.S1E-13
3. 226— 13
4.01E-13
S.97E-12
2 « 70E— 11
7«J3E-11
1.50E-]0
2.62E-10
4.09E- 10
3.90E- 10
B. 16E-10
1.0BE-09
U43E-0B
4.91E-08
9.94E-08
1.60E-07
2.27E-Q7
2.99E-07
3.76E-07
4.57E-C7
*5.43E-07
4. 56E-C6
1 .06E-05
1 o 61E—05
2.07E-05
2•45E— 05
2*76E—05
3.03E-05
3.25E-05
3.43E-05
2.17E-04
2. 30E—04
].99E-04
1 .60E-04
L•26E—04
9. 73E-03
7.4BE—05
S.76E-05
4 « 45E— OS
BONE
0.0
O.f)
0.0
0.0
0*0
0.0
0.0
5.8 7E—I 4
8.57E—4 4
1.37E-13
1.9 IE—13
2.31E-13
3« 2 2E—13
4.0IE—13
5.97C-12
2.7 0E-1I
7.33 E—11
X.50E— t 0
2.6 2£—10
4«0 9E-10
S.94E-10
fl.l6E-10
I•08E—Q9
I.43E-08
4.91E-08
9.94E-03
1.60E-0 7
2.27E-07
2.99E-07
3.76E-07
4.57E-07
5.4 3E—0 7
4.36E—06
1 • 06E-OS
1.eie-os
2.07£—05
2.45E-0S
2.76E-0S
3.03E-05
3.2 56—03
3.44E-05
2.17E-04
2.30E-04
1.99E-04
I .6OE—04
1 «26E—04
9«73E-0S
7.48E-05
3.76E-05
4.45E-05
fMYRQIO
0*0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0*0
0.0
0.0
7.07E-18
2*07E~17
4»iee-L7
7.13E-17
1.11C-16
1.63E-16
2•30E—i 6
t*66E-l3
0.37E-I5
2•6QE-I4
6.43E-14
1.29E-13
2.Z9E-13
J.69E-13
5.37E-13
7.9BE-I3
4.S1E-12
I .64E-11
3.81 E— 11
7.02E-11
t .13E-10
1.66E-10
2.30E-10
3.05E-1O
3.89E-10
1.35E—09
3.20C-09
5.33E—09
7.45E-09
9.45E-09
I »1 36—08
1.29E-08
I.4 3E~fr8
1 .56E-08
4. 35E—08
4*44E-98
3*a4E-0B
3-09E-08
2.42E-03
1.886-00
I® 44E—03
1.11E-08
Q.58E-09
252
-------
Table K-2-c. Average Annual Nonspecific Dose to
Population, MAN1N, In Man-rems/Year
• • average annual nonspecific dose to population, mamn, in vankems/year
NCf-iSPECIF 1C ... NUCLIDE^ P8-210 K= JO
TIME
TOT BODY
G1 TRACT
GONADS
LI VER
LUNGS
MARPOK
BONE
THrROID
Oa
OoO
0.0
Oa 0
0.0
Oa 0
Oo 0
Oo 0
0» 0
5.
0.0
Oa 0
0.0
0.0
0. 0
0.0
0.0
0.0
10s
0. 0
Oa 0
0. 0
0.0
0. 0
Oo 0
0.0
03 0
1 5.
C. 0
0.0
Oa 0
0.0
0. 0
0.0
0. 0
OaO
20 4
0.0
0. 0
0.0
0*0
0. 0
0.0
C.O
0.0
25.
0. 0
Oa 0
Oa 0
0.0
OoO
Oo 0
OaO
Oo 0
30.
CoO
0. 0
0. 0
Oa 0
C.O
OaO
OoO
OoO
40 .
1.2 7E-12
2.4IE—14
1 .27E-12
1.17E-11
0.0
1. 24^.-10
1.2 4--1 0
Oa 0
50.
1.91E-I2
3.63E-14
1.91 E-12
1 .76E-U
0.0
1.87C-10
la 6 7E-1 0
Oo 0
60s
2o 64E — 1 2
5.03E-14
Zo 64E-12
2.44E-11
0. 0
2.59E—10
2.5 93—10
0 .0
70,
3e49E-12
6o63E-14
3a 49 E —I 2
3.21E-11
0.0
3.42E-10
3.4 2E-I 0
Oo 0
60*
4.46E-I 2
8.48E-14
4.46E-12
4.11E-11
0.0
4.37E-10
4a 3 7E- 1 0
OaO
90.
5.60E-12
1.07E-13
5.60E-I2
5.16E-11
0.0
5.49E-10
5.49E-10
OoO
1 00 e
6.95E-I2
1 a 32 E—13
6095E-12
6.40E-11
0.0
6. 61 E— 10
6o 31E-1 0
OoO
200.
2.86E-1I
5.44E-13
2. 86E-U
2.C3E-I0
0. 0
2. 00 E — 09
2.Q0E-O9
0.0
300.
1.12E-10
2. 14E-12
1.12E-10
1 o 03 E—09
Go C
lo10E-08
la 1OE-OS
OoO
400a
2o O0E-1 0
5c66E-12
3.08E-10
2 o 84 E—09
0. 0
3c02E-08
Zo0?.E-03
o, o
500.
6o67E-10
la 2 7E-11
6.67E-10
6 .14E-09
0.0
6.54S-C8
6.5 4T-08
0 .0
600.
1,24 E— 0 9
2.36E-11
1.24E-09
1.14E-08
OoO
1.22E-C7
1.22E-0 7
Oo o
700.
2a 07E-09
3.94E-11
2a07E-09
1 . 91 E—08
0.0
2. 03E—07
2o 0 3^—0 7
Oo 0
eoo.
3.20E-09
6 . 09 E- 11
3.20E-09
2 .S5E-08
0. c
3.14E-07
3ol4E-07
OoO
900 o
4.66E-09
6a 86E—11
4.66E-09
4.29E-05
0.0
4o 57E-C7
4o07Z-J7
Oa 0
1 000.
eo48F-09
la 23E—10
6.48E-09
5.98E-0a
0.0
6.36E-07
Co 3 61— 07
0.3
2000 .
3.61E—08
6.86E-10
3.61E—08
3o33E-07
OoO
3o 54E-C6
3o 5 4E —06
Oo 0
3000a
1.26E-07
2.39E-09
1.26E-07
1.16E-06
0.0
lo ?3E—05
J,23E-05
0„ o
4000.
2. 80E-07
E« 33 E— 09
2.00E-07
2.59E-06
0.0
2.75E-05
2.751-OS
0 .0
5000a
5. 01E-0 7
9. 53 E— 09
5.01E—07
4.62 E—06
0.0
4o 91E-05
4„9IE-05
Oo 0
6000.
7. 87E-07
1.50E-08
7o 87E—0 7
7.2SE-06
0. 0
7o721-05
7.7 2c.-05
OoO
7000.
1.14E-06
2.16E-08
1.14E-06
1.O5E-0S
0.0
1 .12"-04
1.12E-C14
OoO
8000.
lo55E-06
2.96E-08
1.55E — 06
1.43E-05
OeO
1«S2E-C4
'.,52E-04
7c 0
9000.
2a 03E-06
3.86E-08
2a 03E-06
1 a S7E-05
0,0
1.99E-04
1 a 9 9 E— 0 4
3.0
10000.
2.57E-06
4.89E-08
2.57E-06
2.37E-0S
0.0
2a 52E-04
2o 5 23-0 4
Oo 0
20000.
9.90E-06
la 88E-07
9.90E-06
9.12E-05
OoO
9o70E-04
9o 70E-04
To 0
30000.
U33E-05
4a 43E-07
2.33E-05
2.1SE-04
0.0
2.23E-03
2.28C-03
0 .0
40000a
3. 81 E~ 05
7.24E-07
3. 81 E—05
3.51 E-04
C.O
3. 7 3F.-C3
3o 73E—03
OaO
50000.
5o 2 4E-05
9.97E-07
5.24E-0S
4.81E-IH
0.0
5.14E-03
5a 1 4 E— 0 3
OoO
60000.
e.5QE-05
1.25O06
6.S8E-05
6.06E-04
0.0
6.4SE-03
6o 4 5E—0 3
f)0 a
70000.
7. 78E-05
1.48E-06
7.78E-05
7.17E-04
0. 0
7o 63E—03
7a 6 3S-C1 1
lo 1
80000.
e,84E-05
la 68E-06
6.34E-05
Sa 15E-CW
0. 0
8.67E-03
«.67E-13
0.0
90000 .
5.77E-05
la 86E-06
9.77E-05
9.01E-04
Oa 0
9.58E-03
9o 58E-03
loO
100000,
1.06E-04
?a 01 E- 06
1.06E-04
9.73E-04
Oa 0
lo C4E-C2
1.34E-02
Oo 1
200000,
3. 44E- 04
6. 5 5E- 06
3.44E-04
3.17 E— 03
0.0
3.38S-02
3.38 E— a 2
0 .0
300000.
3a 55E-04
6a 74E-06
3.55E-04
3.27E-03
OoO
48E-02
3n 4 8E— 3 2
Oo 0
400000o
2. 0 7E-04
5a84E-06
3.07E-04
2.83E-03
OoO
3o21E—02
3a 0 1 E—0 2
Oo 0
500000 .
2.47E-04.
4.7 0E-06
2.47E-04
2.20 E—03
0.0
2.42E-02
2o 4 2E—0 2
OoO
600000.
1.54E-04
3.68E-06
1.94E-04
1 a 7dE—0J
Oa 0
1c90E-02
lo 9
-------
Table K-3. Average Annual Local Dose to Individual, Total for All
Nuclides, MAN2LF for JF-1 to 4, MAN2L In MilliremsAear.
• • AVERAGE ANNU4L LOCAL OQSfc" TO !Nl>|V!OUAL« *AK2L^ F CR JF= I TO 4, MAN'2 L FDR TOT\L» IN MILLIREMS/VlAR
TLTAL f CR ALL NUCLICL'S
TQT OCDY
Oft
5,
10,
1 S*
2 a.
2 5.
30o
40.
50*
to.
70.
60•
90*
100*
200*
300.
4 0 0*
500«
600*
700*
boo*
coo.
1000a
2000*
300 Oft
4000*
5000.
tOCQ*
7000*
aoou*
9000ft
100C0.
2000 Oft
30000*
40000*
SO 0C>0.
eooooft
70000*
acoooft
90000.
1€000 Oft
2 COOO Oft
scoooo.
4 COOOO*
5 COOOOft
6 COCO 0,
7 C COOO.
a cocoo.
9 COCOO.
1OCOOOO.
Al*
0.0
0*0
o« 0
Cm 0
0.0
c.o
0. c
2« 7«E-03
2ft*j4£ — OJ
2.96F-03
2ft eaE-03
2* 75E-01
2 • tlC-03
2.49E-03
3ft 7 0E-03
3.25^-03
3.tjF-03
3«62E-03
4 «C9E-03
4ft 21P~03
4.47L-03
4.ESE-02
4f t7E-03
7.34E-03
7. HI E —03
9*07f-03
1•C3F-02
l*l?E-0<:
1.20E-02
lft27F-02
1 oS2E-02
1 -36P-02
2ft C«E-02
1 *6£F-0?
1« 21E-02
9ft e0E-03
6 * laE-03
6ft t2E-C3
5ft €3F-03
4.1 3L-03
3*fc5E-Q3
6« S9f-03
5#2^£-03
bo e?F-03
S.13C-03
5.t OE-03
bo 49C-0 3
5.3 3E-03
5.?ts-P3
* • ME-03
J#--2
SURFACE
OftO
Oft 0
0*0
OoO
0.0
OftO
0« 0
2.63c-05
4.40E-05
«»3XE-05
5ft63c-0S
6*l5<;-05
t .26;- OS
6«ei£-05
Io2dR-04
1 .Sb«
¦04
l*S9c-04
2©37=-04
2.71E-04
2ft GlE-04
3.27E-04
3 • 4 9— 04
?o 70S— 04
€.4*^-04
7»eoE-o*
9* 14E-U4
1« C2E-03
1*10--0 3
1 • 15S-03
1 • 19 fi—03
1« 2PE-03
1 .24^-03
1 a 71 E-03
9« 04
4.57E-04
?* f.Q S— 04
1 .1 1£-04
7ft4fr£-05
6. 18E-05
5.77E-0S
So 7! E— 05
l**7t>04
1« 705-04
1* ttE-04
1 .91=T-04
1 * 91 tl — 0 4
It BSS-C4
1 • B4 I- 0<»
la 7^E-C4
1 . 741:- 04
JF = 3
SURFACE
¦ATCH
Oa 0
Ob 0
0« 0
0*0
o.o
Oft o
Oft 0
0.0
OftO
o.o
OftO
C. 0
0.0
Oft o
OftO
0.0
OftO
0* o
OftO
0« 0
c.o
OftO
OftO
0.0
0*0
0* 0
OftO
Oft o
o.o
Ob 0
Oe o
0.0
Oft o
Oft 0
OftO
OftO
0. o
Oft ~
Oft 0
0.0
OftO
Oft o
OftO
Oft 0
0.0
0.0
c.o
o.o
o.o
0. o
J*=4
GRCUNO
*4 TEG
0.0
Oft 0
o.o
Oo 0
0.0
Oc 0
0. o
0*0
0*0
0*0
OftO
0*0
0.0
OftO
Oe 0
0.0
OftO
Oc 0
On 0
OftO
0.0
Oc 0
Oo 0
o. 0
Oc 0
Oft o
Oe 0
0«0
0.0
OoO
OftO
O.O
0.0
Oft 0
0*0
OftO
0.0
OoO
OoO
0. 0
Oc 0
OftO
OftO
Oft 0
0.0
Oc o
Oo 0
o.O
o*o
o. o
TCTAL
Oft 0
O. 0
Oft 0
OftO
0.0
Oft 0
00 0
2* 7oE—03
2* 9fl£-03
3 * O^E-03
2e 94E-03
2a 61 L—03
2.67E-03
2« S5E ** 03
3 a 031-03
3.41 fc' -03
3. 73E-03
4ft 06E-03
4* 36?!— 03
4ft el £-03
4.dOC-03
S4E —03
04E.-03
7 . 9£4E—03
da S9EL—03
9* 98£-*03
1 a 13E-02
1« 23E-02
1•32c—0 2
1» 3dc—02
1 o 44E.-02
1.46E-G2
2« 21£-02
1« odE-02
1 « 25E—02
1 aOuE-02
a.29E~03
6* 69E-03
5»69E~03
4 • fc*»E—03
3« 91 E—03
7* 14ET-03
5 & 39E —0 3
•J. 70£-0 3
S m eilfc.—03
5* 79E-03
5« c—03
5.s^E-03
S.3 3C-ol
5.12 £-03
Oft
5.
1
15.
20.
2£*
30*
40ft
50*
60 •
70ft
00*
90*
100ft
200*
300*
400a
500.
600o
;oo«
HOO#
900*
1 OOOft
2 COO e
3000«
4 300 •
*3 000*
6 001ft
7000.
BOO Oft
9000 o
10000*
?OCOOft
.30 000 •
40000a
£0000*
e o o o o ~
7C COO*
60 DOOa
90000^
J 00000a
200000 -
300000ft
400000ft
500 000•
oo oon •
700 000ft
e co aoo.
9f>OOO0ft
1oooooo•
JF=1
Mn
0* 0
0. 0
0* 0
Cft 0
OftO
C. 0
Do 0
2fl G1E-05
3o 44.1- Os
3.5?.c.-05
3ft ^J2-05
3ft eotr-os
3.79T-0Q
?fttO3-05
£»• 51^-03
5. 3! z-05
5* 91 ^.-OS
t.33E-05
6oaor-05
7ft i ae-oa
7.472-15
7* eaH-or5
7 a33£-05
lp 24i-04
la 322-04
1.53F.-04
l*T3E-04
2. 03r--04
2*14~-04
2o 23'il—04
2ft 20^1-04
3» 4Cr-04
2.C7E-04
2* 04E-04
l«66E-04
1. 39t>04
1* 15--04
9o 533— OS
7«A43-05
6« 53- —05
1 • 19->04
Bo 03^-0*3
9. "<42-05
9."47-05
9® 30Z-05
9.033-OS
6« m-os
44. ,3<5r-DS
JF-2
GRCUfiO
SURFACE
0* 0
0,-3
Oft 0
0*0
0.0
00 0
Oft 0
41» 7911-07
7o 4 5C-0 7
9.00"-07
9* »9E-07
1* 04-— O6
1 • OflT-06
J*1ZE-06
2ftl7C-06
2. a 7£-0 6
3o 3 7H-0O
4.021-06
4o J>0^**06
5* 1 01-06
G.54=-06
5* 92^-06
6*2 6r>0 6
la O9E-0S
I . "jp.E-0 5
1.55^-0 5
U 73?.-03
1 e J 6^-0 5
1 .9SS-13
Pa 32^-0 5
2o07C-05
2* 1 0Lr-0 5
2d 90r-05
1.67T-0 5
7o 74^-06
3ft 52T-0 6
1 .dttH-06
1« 26E-06
lo 03E-06
9* 77^-0 7
9fttiaE-0 7
Z*66£-06
2o 96E-06
3o i 6^-06
3.33--06
3o 3^:^0 6
lo 1 9CI-06
3» 1 JS-0 6
3d 04^^06
,?.44^-06
JF-=3
SURFACE
*ATER
Oo 9
0*0
0. 0
Oft O
0*0
000
0«0
2* U32-04
4o 39E-04
5.i 9E— 04
5o45E—04
So 36E-04
5 » 06E—04
4o 65c-04
5* J2£-0 +
2® 061-04
1* B6E-04
2.05E-04
2« 22E-04
2» 355-34
2.42E-04
2* 44u-0 +
2* 4S3-04
3o 60E-04
3* 37E-0*
3 » 74 E- 04
4.* 12E-04
4* 43E-04
4.67H-04-
4* 84S — 0 4
4*99:1-04
5* 12H-04
7o 31 £— 04
S.222-04
3« 91 E—04
3. 61 E- 04
3* 01E—04
4a 16Z-0*
4« 56E— 04
4o 92E-04
J*24F.-04
1«26E-0J
la 40E-03
1.30E-OJ
1 •04E-03
Jo 7BE-04
7« ldE-04
1•29C-03
Jo 4 1 H -02
d • 1 8t-> 01
JF^4
GROUND
WATER
0* 0
O.O
, Os 0
Oft 0
0*0
0* O
0. 0
0*0
0. 0
0.0
Oft 0
0* 0
0*0
0* 0
0. 0
3* 0
OoO
o. o
Oft 0
Oft o
OftO
0.0
0. o
00 0
1* 32E:—27
2.4 Oc—17
2*94E—12
7. 9SE-10
5o29E-09
3* 49E-O0
1 . 66 a-07
3* OSS—07
2o 41E—00
2* 932—07
2«B3E-07
20 74E-07
2*6 52-0 7
2* 57E-07
2. 49E-07
2» 41 E—0 7
2. 34EV07
2. 47E-09
2ft11E—07
1. 52E-07
lo Otic-07
7* 5 OE—Od
5.51 E— 08
So 9 45-07
Sm 76Z-J5
a- 73£-04
TOTAL
Oft O
0.0
Oft o
0* o
0*0
0* 0
0.0
3ft 09E-04
4*75E-04
5.58E-04
5.85E-04
5* 76E— 04
5.45E-04
5ft 033-04
6.43E-04
2« 62E-04
?* 43E-04
2.72E-04
2* 95E-04
3* 12E-04
3ft22E-04
3* 27E-04
3* 29E-04
4o 95E—04
4o 62E-04
5.43^-04
6* 02E-04
6* 51E-04
6* 39E-04
7* 19E-04
7.43H-04
7o63E-04
1»11E-03
8.C6E-0 4
6o 03E-0 4
5* 30E—04
So21E-04
5* 35E-04
5.53^-04
S» 72E-04
5. 90 E—0 4
i.3ar-o3
lo 57E-03
lo 40E-03
1*ldE-03
9a 76E-04
0- 142-04
2o 48E-0 3
S« 43E-A?
d.J9£-fll
-------
o
«
•0
«0
•c
4
«
n
*
*
~
n
n
V
01
*
UJ
a
j
j
a)
o
c
•H
4J "»
0 S
Si
u.
. i
7 5
*
5 =
H O
o
o yi
UJ
* 2
U «J
~ U
Z
< J
5 4
i
< at
o
u-
4 S a
ii 2 w
H.Oh
c0
vO
K
in
©
tn
N
r>
S 3
<
e
a
o
o
o
o
o
o
D
«0
««
Ift
O
~
o
m
••
<0
•4
tf)
n
CD
N
~
C
S
©
9
9
o
©
0
GD
a
o
o
o
o
o
o
5
o
o
a
o
o
o
e
e
o
©
o
©
c
o
o
o
©
©
o
o
o
H
o
CM
«
in
<0
N
«
0>
e
©
(SI
o
n
o
~
©
5n
©
o
s
o
o
o
Q>
o
c
©
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
c
o
o
o
o
o
c
©
o
TO
H»
•*
in
o
fw
!/>kntAin^tr«£> a
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
if
o
©
o
o o
Q
a
O
o
o
©
o
O
©
o
N
rt
9
(0
to
s
flj
9
o
a
o
©
o
o
u
o o
©
©
u
o
o
a
a
o
©
M
fV
F>
*
tfl
e
f.
(0 9
o
u
-------
Table K-3.
• * AVERAGE ANNUAL LOCAL DOSE TO INDIVIDUAL* MAN2LF FOR JF=1
70TA&. FDR ALL NUCLIDES
to
Ln
20N£* 3
JF*1
JF—2
JF^3
Jl
TIME
AIR
crouno
SURFACE
GRi
SURFACE
MATER
WA
0*
0.0
0.0
0*0
OoO
5.
o.o
0.0
0*0
0.0
10,
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
15*
0.0
0*0
0.0
0.0
2 0«
0.0
0.0
0*0
0.0
25*
0.0
0*0
0 .0
0.0
30.
0*0
0,0
0 .0
0.0
40.
i.asc-06
3 o38E—08
4 . 09£*-14
0.0
50.
2 • 43E — 06
S.266-08
6.406-14
0.0
60*
2.66E-06
6.356-08
7¦8JE—14
0.0
70.
2. 74E-06
6.98E-08
8.76E- |4
0*0
60.
2.70E-06
7.3S6-08
9*436-14
o.o
90*
2«fc26—06
7.64E-O0
1¦OQE—13
0.0
100.
2.54E-06
7. VI 6— oa
1.06E—1J
0. 0
200 *
4.OCE-06
1 .536-07
2*21E—13
0*0
300 e
3* 72E-06
1.896-07
3.016-13
0.0
400.
4.106-06
2.30E-O7
3.93E- 13
0.0
500.
4*476-06
2« 64E-07
4«796- 1 3
0.0
60 0*
4.80E-06
3.256-07
5«596-13
0.0
700.
S.07E-06
3.606-07
6*326-13
0.0
AOOo
5.276-06
3.91E— 07
7. OOE—13
0.0
960»
5.42E-0&
4.I0E-O7
7.646-13
o.o
1000.
S .536-06
4. 4 2 E—07
Q.246 —13
0.0
2000.
8 . 736- 06
7.69E-07
1.5IE—12
0.0
3000.
9.31E-06
9.27E-07
1.93E-12
0.0
4000a
1 . 08E-05
1 • 06E-06
2.286-12
0.0
5000.
I.226-05
1.20E-06
2 . 546-12
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TO 4• MAN2L FOR TOTAL, IN MILLIREWS/YEAR
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-------
APPENDIX L
SUMMARY TABLES OF DOSE CALCULATION OUTPUT
BASE CASE
Summary tables at selected times are given in Tables L-l through
L-3 from output Section 6 as follows, for Base Case 48.
Section 6. Dose Summary Tables
1. Average Annual Local Dose to Individual, MANlL, in lone 1,
mrem/y (Table L-l).
2. Average Annual Local Dose to Individual, MANlL, in Zone 8,
mrem/y {Table L-2),
3. Average Annual Nonspecific Dose to Population, MAN1N, raan-
rem/y (Table L-3),
259
-------
Table L-l. Average Annual Local Dose to Individual,
MAN1L, in Zone 1, In Millirems/Year
100. YEARSa
K>
o
K
NUCLIDE
TOT BODY
GI TRACT
GONADS
LIVER
LUNGS
MARROW
BONE
THYROID
1
C-14
8.366-12
1.05E-10
2.80E-12
0 .0
1.17E-09
4.46E-11
4.466-11
0.0
2
SR-90
3.67 E—04
7.35E-06
3.67E-04
0.0
2.00E-03
5.5 IE—03
5.51E—03
0 .0
3
Y— 9 0
2.39E-07
1 .47E-0 5
2.39E—0 7
0.0
7.24E-06
3.796-06
8.796—06
O.O
4
ZR-93
5.16E-I1
8.02E-11
5.16E-11
1.I0E-10
8.02E-10
1.96E-09
1.96E-09
0.0
5
N6-93H
9.15E-11
1.12E-10
9.15E-11
3.716-10
1.14E—09
1.14E—0 9
1 . 14E-09
0. 0
6
T C—99
3.62E-12
2.06E-09
3.62E-12
1.34E-1 1
2.92E-08
3.56E-I1
3.56E-11
0.0
7
l-l 29
2.7SE-12
5.78E-13
3.79E-12
1.C4E-12
1.87E-12
4.516-12
4.23E-12
8.75E-12
a
C5—13 5
3.99E-11
3.S5E-1 1
3.99 E—1 I
8.37E-1 1
1.04E-11
9.70E-I1
9.706-11
0.0
9
CS-137
1.42E-05
9.04E-06
1.42E-0S
2.176-0 5
1.2 4E—0 3
I.59E-05
1.596-05
0.0
SUB TOTAL
3.S2E-04
3.11E-05
3.S2E-04
2.17E-0 5
3.25E-03
5.546-03
5«54E-03
8.75E-12
10
PB-210
1.036-13
9.S7E-15
9.936-14
7.32E-13
I.49E-11
7.706-12
7.70E-I2
2.03E-14
11
RA—225
7.96E-I3
9.796-13
7.96E-13
5.06E-15
1.06E-10
S.4 2E-12
S.4 2E-12
0.0
1 2
RA—226
1.52E-12
1.19E-14
1.S2E-12
1.20E-14
4.39E-12
1.78E-11
i.78E-I1
1.53E-14
13
TH-229
1 # 73 E— 09
1.14E-12
1.73E-09
7.23E-10
1*51E—08
1.10E-0 7
1.10E-07
0.0
1 4
TH-230
2.83E-10
2 . 1 4E- 1 3
2.836-10
4.66E-10
9.S0E-10
1.05E-08
1.05E-0 8
3 .02E-13
IS
NP-237
5.98E-07
2.63E-0 8
3.43E-07
8.09E-06
5.35E-0 6
2.056-05
2.056-05
4.57E-03
ie
NP—239
1.74E-05
1.1SE-05
2.02E-05
1.31E-05
1.506-05
2.81E-05
2.80E-D5
i.326-0 5
17
PU—238
S.246-04
3.72E-07
3.18E-0 4
7.806—03
6.19E-03
1.82E-02
i.aae-02
1.49E-07
ie
Pl>—2 39
4.63E-06
2.546-09
2 oS0E—06
6 . 7SE- 0 5
4.41E-05
1.69E-0 4
1.69E-0 4
8.39E-10
19
PU-2 40
9.07E-05
5.52E-08
4.9 2 E—05
1.32E-0 3
8.656-04
3.31E-0 3
3. 31E-03
2.266-08
20
PU-241
5.04E-07
4.28E-10
4.80E-07
3 .48E-0 6
1.78E-0 7
2.0SE-05
2.056-05
O.O
21
AM—241
6.6SE-04
1.10E-05
3.756-04
9.40E-03
6.4 IE—03
2.25E-0 2
2.25E-02
2.27E-05
22
AM-24 2M
4.S1E-05
S.32E-09
2.44E-05
6.276-04
1.82E-04
1.6 0E-03
1.606-03
0.0
2J
AM—2 43
1.47E-04
2.226-06
8.00E-05
2.056 —0 3
1.35E-03
5.106-0 3
5. 106-03
4.54E-06
24
CM—242
6.75E-07
2.SSE-08
6.71E—0 7
1.24E-0S
1.04E-04
2.31E—05
2.31E—0 5
6.55E-09
23
CM—244
6.766-04
7.65E-06
5.4 16-04
1.04E-02
1.48E-02
2.26E-02
2.25E-0 2
1 .42E-0S
SUB TOTAL
2.17E-03
3.28E-05
1.41E-03
3.17E-02
3.00E-0 2
7.36E-0 2
7.366-0 2
5.99E-05
TOTAL.
2.55E-03
6.39E-05
1.79E-03
3.17E-0 2
3.32E-02
7.92E—0 2
7.916—0 2
5.996-05
. _ —,— —
——
—. . ¦
011 ME SINCE START OF REPOSITORY OPERATIONS.
-------
Table L-l. (Continued)
AVERAGE ANNUAL LOCAL. DOSE TO INDIVIDUAL. MANIL. IN ZONE I. IN MILLIRENS/YEAR
1000. YEARS*
K
NUCLIDE
TOT BOOY
GI TRACT
CONAOS LIVER
LUNGS
MARROU
BONE
THYROID
1
C- 14
8.76E-11
1.10E-09
Z.93E-11 0.0
1.236-08
4.67E-10
4.67E-10
0 .0
2
SR—90
6.36E-12
1.27E-13
6.36E-12
0 .0
3.47E-1I
9.54E-11
9.54E-11
0 .0
3
V-90
4.13E-1S
2.54E-13
4.I3E-15
0 .0
1.2SE-13
1.52E-13
1.52E-I3
0. 0
4
ZR-93
S.99E-10
9.3IE-10
S.99E-10
1 .28E-09
9.31E—09
2.2BE-08
2.2SE-08
0.0
5
NB-9 3M
1.I0E-O9
I.34E-09
1.IOE-09
4.44E-09
1.37E-0S
1.36E-0 8
1.36E-0 8
0. 0
6
T C—99
4. IBE-tl
2.3BE-06
4.18E-11
I .55E-10
3.37E-07
4. HE-10
4.1 IE—10
0.0
7
1-129
3.79E-11
7.92E-12
5.21E-11
1.43E-11
2.47E-11
6.20E-1I
5.76E-II
1.09E-10
8
CS-135
4.63E-10
4.12E-10
4.&3E-I0
9.736-10
1.21E-10
1.I3E-09
1.13E-09
0. 0
9
CS-137
9.21E-13
5.47E-13
9.2 IE—13
1.31E-1Z
7.4/E-lI
9.62E-13
9.62E-I3
0.0
SUB TOTAL 2.33E-09 2.76E-08 2.29E-09 6.86E-09 3.73E-07 3.066-0 0 3.3&E-08 1.08E-I0
tO
cn
to
PB-210
3.15E-10
3.4IE— 1 1
3.02E-10
2.156-09
4.366-0a
2.26E-O0
2.26E-0 8
7.01 E—11
11
RA—225
l.ooe-io
t.23E-10
1.OOE-IO
6.37E-13
X.346-08
6.83E-I0
6.83E-1Q
0.0
12
RA—226
2.87E-09
2.63E-11
2.88E-09
2.69E-1 1
8.31E-09
3.3BE-08
3.386-08
3.43E-11
13
TH—229
2.18E-07
1.43E-10
2.18E-07
9.09E-08
1.90E-06
t.36E-0 5
1.336-05
o.o
(4
TH—2 30
8.03E-08
6.916-11
8.03E-08
1 .32E-0 7
2.70E-07
2.99E-06
2.99E-06
1.31E-10
1 E
KIP-2 37
8.14E-06
4.I8E-07
4.71E—06
I .09E-0 4
7.20E-05
2.766-04
2.766-0 4
7.26E-07
16
NP-2 39
2* 2IE—04
I.46E-04
2.57E-04
1.66E-04
1.91E-04
3.S7E-0*
3.56E-04
2.32E-0 4
17
PU—238
2.48E-05
1.83E-08
1«50E—05
3.69E-04
2.93E-04
8.64E-04
8.64E—04
9.35E—09
ie
PU—239
8.94E-05
5.03E-08
4.83E-05
I.30E-03
8.52E—04
3.27E-0 3
3.27E-03
1.92E-08
19
PU—240
1.01E—03
6.39E-07
S.46E-04
1 . 47E—0 2
9.62E-03
3.68E-0 2
3.6SE-02
2.97E-0 7
20
PU—2 4 I
1.21E—06
1.03E-09
I.15E-06
8.35E-06
4.27E-07
4.93E-05
4.93E-05
0.0
21
AM-241
2.09E-03
4.04E-OS
1«1BE—03
2.93E-02
2.00E-0 2
7.0 46-0 2
7.04E-0 2
8.39E-0 5
22
AM-242M
1» 06C—05
1.26E-09
S.77E-06
1.48E-0 4
4.30E-0S
3.78E-04
3.78E-04
0.0
23
AM—243
1.S9E-03
2.8OE-0S
8.68E-04
2.21E-02
I.4 56-02
S.49E-02
5.48E-02
5.77E-05
24
CM—2 42
1.626-07
6.1BE-09
1.60E-07
2.926-06
2.47E-05
5.46E-06
5.46E-D6
i.aae-os
25
CM—244
2.02E-16
2.69E-18
1«6 2E—16
3.10E-15
4.41E-1S
6.72E-15
6.726-15
5.06E-18
SUB TOTAL S.O4E-03 2.1SE-04 2.93E-03 6.826-02 4.56E-02 t.67E-0I 1.67E-0I 3.746-04
TOTAL
S.04E-03 2.156-04 2.93E-03 6.B2E-02 4.56E-02 1.67E-0 1 1.67E-01 3.74E-04
•TIME SINCE START OF REPOSITORY OPERATIONS.
-------
Table L-l. (Continued)
AVERAGE ANNUAL LOCAL OOSE TO INDIVIDUAL. MAN1L. IN ZONE 1* IN NILL1HEMS/YEAR
10000. YEARS®
K NUCLIDE
TOT B00Y
GI TRACT
GONADS
LIVER
LUNGS
MARROW
BONE
THYROID
1
C- 14
2.S8E-10
3.636-09
9.66E-11
0.0
4.04E-08
1.546-0 9
1.54E-09
0.0
2
SR-90
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3
Y—90
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
o.a
0.0
0. 0
4
ZR-93
5.51E-09
8.56E-09
5.51E-09
1.17E-0S
S.566-08
2.10E-0 7
2. IOE-07
0. 0
5
NB-93M
1 .01E-08
1 .236-08
1.0 IE—08
4.08E-08
1.26E-07
I.25E-0 7
1.25E-07
0.0
6
TC-M
3.77E-10
2.15E-07
3.77E-10
1 .406-09
3 <,046-06
3.71E—0 9
3.71E-09
0.0
7
1-1 29
3.56E-1C
7. 43E- 11
4.89E-10
1.34E- 1 0
2.31E-10
5.82E-10
5.41E—10
1.006-09
a
CS-135
4.2 9E—09
3.81E-09
4.29E-09
9.00E-09
1.12E-09
1.046-0 8
1 .046-08
0. 0
5
CS-137
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
SUB TOTAL 2.09E-08 2.43E-07 2.08E-08 6.31E-08 3.30E-06 3.51E-07 3.51E-07 l.OOE-09
to
to
1 0
PB-210
1.52E-0 7
I.666-03
1.46E-07
1.04E-06
2.10 E—0 5
1.09E-05
1.09E-0 5
3.426-08
11
RA—225
8. 716—09
1.076-0 8
8.71E—09
5.53E-11
1.16E-06
5.93E-0C
5.936-08
0.0
1 2
RA—226
1.30E-O6
1.276-08
1.30E-O6
1.30E-08
3.98E-06
1.62E-0S
1 .62E-05
1.S7E-03
13
TH—229
1.91E—OS
1.256—08
I.91E-05
7.93E-0 6
1.66E-04
1.2 IE—0 3
1.216-03
0. 0
14
TM—230
8.216-06
7.146-09
8.216-06
1.3S6-0S
2.766-05
3.056-0 4
3.05E-04
1.056-03
1 S
NP—237
8.01E—05
4.16E-06
4.64E-05
1 .07E-0 3
7.086-04
2.716-0 3
2.7IE-03
7.23E-0 6
1 6
NP-2 39
9.SIE—04
6.276-04
1.116-03
7.156-04
8.226-04
1.54E-03
I.53E-0 3
9.97E-04
17
PU—238
6.28E-21
4.66E-24
3.8 IE—21
9.356-20
7. 41E—20
2.196-19
2.196-19
2.14E-24
18
PU—239
2.70E-03
1.S2E-06
1.46E-0J
3.93E-0 2
2.57E-02
9.866-02
9.866-02
5. 85E-07
19
PU—240
3.90E-03
2.47E-06
2.11E-03
5 .686—0 2
3.716-02
1.42E-01
1.42E-01
I . 16E-0 6
20
PU—241
5.49E-06
4.66E-09
5o23E-06
3.79E-05
1.94E-06
2.24E-04
2.24E—04
0.0
21
AM—241
4.22E-04
6.266-06
2 o39E—04
S.93E-03
4.05E-0 3
1.4 2E-0 2
1 .426-02
1.72E-05
22
AM-242M
3.68E—21
4.35E-25
1.99E-21
5. 12E-20
1.49E-20
1.3IE—19
1.31E-19
0.0
23
AM—243
6.76E-03
1.2IE—04
3.70E-03
9.38E-02
6.16E-02
2.33E-0 I
2.33E-01
2.49E-04
24
CM—2 42
5.60E-23
3.156-24
S.566—23
1.016-21
8.546-21
1.89E-21
1.39E-21
6.42E-25
25
CM—2 44
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
SUB TOTAL
1.48E-02
7.656-04
8.696—03
1 ,>986-0 1
1.306-01
4.946-01
4.94E-01
1.27E-03
TOTAL
1.486-02 7.656-04 8.696-03 1.986-0 1 1.306-01 4.94E-01 4.94E~01 I.27E-03
0T1ME SINCE START OF REPOSITORY OPERATIONS.
-------
Table L—1. (Continued)
AVERAGE ANNUAL LOCAL DOSE TO INDIVIDUAL. MAN1L. IN ZONE 1. IN MILLIREHS/YEAR
100000. YEARS 0
to
en
w
K
NUCLIDE
TOT BODY
GI TRACT
GONADS
LIVER
LUNGS
MARROW
BONE
THYROID
I
C-14
5.06E-14
6.37E-I3
1.69E-14
0.0
7.0BE-1H
2.69E-13
2.69E-13
0.0
2
SR-90
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3
Y—90
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0'
0.0
0. 0
4
ZR-93
2.SBE-08
4.0XE-0B
2.58E-08
S.SOE-OB
4.01E—0 7
9.B4E-0 7
9.84E-07
0. Q
5
MB-93*
4.TOE—OS
5.76E-08
4.70E-0B
1.91E-07
5.87E-07
5.BSE—07
5.85E-07
0.0
6
TC-99
1.30E—09
7.B6E-07
1 .38E—09
5.12E-09
1.12E-05
I.366-0B
1.36E-0S
OcD
7
1-129
1.72E-09
3.60E-10
2.37E-0 9
6.496-10
1.12E-09
2.82E-09
2.62E-09
4.B5E-09
S
CS-13S
2.04E—08
1 .B1E-08
2.04E-06
4.28E-0B
5.33E-09
4.96E-OB
4.96E-08
0. 0
9
CS-137
0.0
0.0
O.C
0.0
0.0
0.0
o.o
0,0
SUB TOTAL
9.63E-0G
9.02E-07
9.69E-08
2.94E-0 7
1.21E—05
1.63E-0 6
1.63C-06
4.BSE—0 9
1 0
PB-210
6.I2E-06
6.70E-07
S.87E-06
4.17E-0 5
8.44E-04
4.3 8E-04
4.38E-0 4
1.38E-06
1 1
PA—225
3.22E-07
3.96E-07
3.22E-07
2.05E-0 9
4.30E-05
2.19E-06
2.19E-0&
D.O
12
RA-226
5.536—05
5.12E-0 7
S.55E-05
5.24E-07
1 .60E-04
6.50E-04
6.50E—04
6.TOE—07
13
TH—229
7.04E-O4
4.626-07
7.04E-04
2.93E-04
6.14E-03
4.46E-02
4.46E—02
0. 0
I 4
TH—230
2.S1E-04
2. 1BE-07
2.5IE—04
4.13E-04
8.42E-04
9.32E-03
9.32E—03
3.20E-0 7
IS
NP—237
3.85E-04
2.00E-05
2.23E-04
5. 15E-03
3.40E-03
1.30E-02
1 .30E-0 2
3.48E-05
i«
NP—239
2.OOE-06
1.32E-06
2.33E-06
1.50E-06
1.73E-06
3.23E-0 6
3.22E-06
2.10E-06
17
PU-230
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0. 0
t e
PU—239
2.49E-03
1.40E-06
1.34E-03
3.&3E-0 2
2.37E-02
9.10E-02
9. I0E-02
5.41E-07
19
PU-240
3.17E-06
2.01E-09
1.71E-06
4.62E-0 5
3.02E-05
1 .1 5E-04
1.15E-04
9.45E-10
20
PU-24I
2.33E-O0
1.98E-11
2.22E-0B
1.61E-07
8.24E-09
9.50E-07
9.S0E-07
0.0
21
AM—241
1.7BE-06
3.49E-06
1.0 IE—06
2.50E—0 5
1*7 IE—OS
6.00E-05
fi.006-05
7.25E-08
22
AH-242(4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
23
AM—2 43
I.42E-0S
2.54E-07
7.75E-06
1.97E-04
1.29E-04
4.90E-04
4.S9E-04
5.Z2E-0 7
24
CM—242
0*0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2£
CM—2 44
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0. 0
SUB TOTAL
3.91E-03
2.53E—OS
2.60E-03
4.2SE-02
3.53E—02
1.60E-0t
1 .60E-01
4.64E—0 5
TOTAL
3.91E-03 2.62E-05 Z.60E-03 4.25E-02 3.53E-02 1.60E-0t 1.60E-01 4.04E-05
0TIHE SINCE START OF REPOSITORY OPERATIONS.
-------
Table L-l, (Continued)
AVERAGE ANNUAL LOCAL DOSE TO XNOIVIDU/H.* MAN 1 L» IN ZONE !, IN MILLIR£MS/YEAR
1000000. YEARS*
to
a*
K
NUCLIDE
TOT BODY
GI TRACT
GONADS
LIVER
LUNGS
HARROW
BONE
THYROID
1
C- 14
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2
SR-90
0.0
0.0
0.0
o.o
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3
Y-9C
0.0
0.0
0.0
o.o
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
4
ZR-93
4.40E-08
6.84E-08
4.4 06-08
9.38E-0 8
6.845-07
1.68E-0 6
1.68E-06
0.0
5
NB-9 3M
e.OOE-08
9.806-08
8 .OOE-Oa
3.24E-0 7
9.99E-07
9.96E-0 7
9.96E-07
0 .0
6
TC-9S
2.13E-10
1.22E-07
2.13E-10
7.92E-I 0
1.726-06
2.106-0 9
2.106—09
0.0
7
1-1 29
4.2^6-09
8.82E-10
S.80E-09
1.596-0 9
2.74E-09
6.906-09
6.426-09
1.196-0 8
8
CS-13S
4.24E-08
3.77E-08
4.24E-08
8.906—08
l.llE-0 0
1.03E-07
1.03E-07
0.0
9
CS-137
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
SUB TOTAL
1.71E-07
3.2 7E-0 7
1.726-07
5 . 10E-0 7
3.42E-06
2.78E-06
2.786-06
1 .196-08
1 0
pa-2 to
3.466-06
3.79E-07
3.326-06
2 .36 £-0 5
4.78E-04
2.48E-04
2.48E-04
7.81E— 0 7
11
RA—225
1.92E-06
2.36£-06
1.92E-06
1.22E-0 6
2.566-04
I.31E-0 5
1.31E—05
0.0
12
RA-226
3.13E-05
2.89E-07
3.14E-05
2.97E-0 7
9.04E-O5
3.67E-04
3.67E-04
3.79E-OT
13
TH—229
4.20E-03
2.76E-06
4.20E-03
1.7SE-b3
3.66E-02
2.666—01
2.O6E-0I
0.0
I*
TH—230
1.42E-04
1.24E-07
I.42E-04
2.346-04
4.76E-04
5.28E-03
5.28E-03
1.SIE-07
15
NP—237
7«43E-04
3.86E-0S
4.31E-04
9.92E-03
6.57E-03
2.52E-02
2.52E-02
6.71E-05
16
NP—239
1.C9E-09
7.22E-10
1.27E-09
8.22E-10
9.45E-10
1.77E-09
1 .76E-09
1.156-09
1 7
PL*—230
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
18
PU—239
1.336-08
7.49E-I2
7.18E-09
1.94E-0 7
L .276-07
4.86E-07
4.86E-0 7
2.99E-12
19
Pl>-240
8 . 11 E-11
5.156-14
4.38E-11
1.186—09
7.73E—10
2.966-09
2.96E-0 9
2.426-14
20
PU—241
4.02E-34
3.42E-37
3.83E-34
2.78E—33
1.42E-34
1.64E-32
1.646-32
O.O
21
AM-241
3.83E-32
7.516-34
2.176-32
5.3SE-3I
3.68E-31
1.296-30
1.296-30
1.566-33
22
AM-242M
0.0
0.0
0.0
O.O
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
23
AM-243
7.55E-09
1.356-10
4.13E-09
1 .0SE-0 7
6.87E-08
2.616—07
2.616-07
2.78E-10
24
CM—2 42
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0. 0
2 S
CM—244
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
SUB TOTAL
5.12E-03
4.46E-0S
4.81E—03
1.19E-02
4.4SE-02
2.97E-01
2.97E-01
6.85E-05
TOTAL
S.12E-03
4.496-05
4.8 IE—03
1 .196-02
4.456-02
2.976-0 I
2.97E-01
6. a^-os
ffTIME SINCE START OF REPOSITORY OPERATIONS.
-------
Table L-2. Average Annual Local Dose to Individual,
M&N1L, In Zone 8, In Millirems/Year
M
G\
LH
100
. YEARS#
K
NUCLIDE
TOT BODY
G1 TRACT
GONADS
LIVER
LUNGS
HARROW
BONE
TMYBOID
1
C- 14
3.23E-12
5.4 76-11
I.07E-12
3.1SE-12
1.46E-11
1.62E-11
I.62E-11
3.156—12
2
SR-90
1.226-05
2.70E-06
1.226-05
0.0
1.6 26—0 5
5.03E-04
5.03E-Q4
0.0
3
Y—90
2.35E-09
5.76E-06
2.356—09
0 .0
7.06E-0 8
0.62E-O0
a.62e-oa
0.0
4
Zn-93
5.146-13
2.656-11
5.14E-I3
1. ICE-12
7.816—12
I«96E—1 I
l.966-11
0.0
S
NB-9 3NI
9.136-13
5.11E-1I
9.136-13
3.70E-I 2
1.116-11
1.146—11
1.146-11
0.0
6
TC-99
4..10E-12
8.0 8E-10
4.10E-12
I.52E-11
2.866-10
I.06E-11
I.06E-1I
0.0
7
1 — 1 29
3# 34E—14
9.416-15
4.516-14
1.26E-14
2.04E-14
5.2 IE—14
4.856-14
1 .626-12
e
CS-135
1.53E-11
1.84E-II
1.53E-11
3.44E-1 I
3.93E-12
3.73E-11
3.736—11
0.0
9
CS—13?
4.266-06
4.706-06
4.26E-06
1.07E-0 5
1.326-05
7.86E-06
7.fl6E-06
0.0
SUB TCTAL
1.64E-05
I.325-05
1.646-05
1 .07E-05
2.94E-0S
5.116-0 4
5.1IE—0 4
4.776-12
t 0
PO-2I 0
4.36E-1S
1.75E-16
4.326—15
3.78E-14
1.456-13
4.016-13
4.016-13
2.JOE—16
11
RA-225
I.336-12
3.206—13
1.33E-12
8.26E-15
t.03E-12
9. 16E-12
9.1BE-12
0* 0
1 2
RA-226
3.3CE-13
7.89E-16
3.30E-I3
1.95E-16
4.286-14
3.936-12
3.93E-12
I.746-16
13
TH-229
1.73E-11
5.2SE-I3
1.73E-11
7.19E-I2
1.406—10
I.106-09
1 .106-09
0.0
1 4
T H—230
2.796-12
2.926-14
2.79E-1Z
4.61E—12
9.266—12
1.046-10
1.04E-I0
3.42E-15
1 £
NP-237
7.086-09
4.196-JO
4.04E-09
9.62E-0 8
5.22E-O0
2.43E-0 7
2.43E-07
5.1 BE—lO
16
NP-2 39
1.97E-07
1 .3BE-0 7
2.296-07
1.48E-07
1.7QE-0 7
3. lflE-0 7
3.17E-0 7
2.07E-07
1 7
PU-23B
5.146—06
I.2 7E-0 7
3.12E-06
7.65E-0 5
6.O3E-05
1.79E-04
I.T9E-04
1.696-09
i a
PU-2 39
4.S4E-08
9.546-10
2.45E-O0
6.62E-0 7
4.306-07
1.666-06
1.666-06
9.526-12
19
PU-240
8.90fc-0 7
1.B8E-0B
4 b SIE—07
i.30E-0 5
8.43E-06
3.2SE-0 5
3.Z5E-0S
2.56E-10
20
PU-2 41
4.956-09
2.226-10
4.71E-C9
3.42E-0 8
I.746-09
2.0 IE—07
2.0IE-07
0.0
21
AM-2 41
7.886-06
2.49E-0 7
4.44E-06
1.12E-0 4
6.25E-05
2.68E-0 4
2»686-0*
2.5SE-Q7
22
AM-242M
5.356—07
3.07E-09
2.906-07
7.43E-06
1 .7 76—06
1.90E-OS
1.906—OS
0.0
23
AM-243
1.74E-06
5.2 86-08
9.49E-07
2.44E-0S
1.31E-0S
6.OSE-05
6.OSE-05
5.156-08
24
CM—2 42
B.22E-09
1.14E-0B
7.986-09
I.43E-0 7
1 .026—06
2.7SE-0 7
2.756-07
7.42E-1I
2 5
CM— 2 4 4
a.026-06
3.02E-O7
6.43E-06
1.23E-04
1.44E-04
2.67E-04
2. 676—04
1.61E-07
SUB TOTAL
2.456-05
9.846-07
1.60E-05
3.57E-0 4
2.92E-04
S.29E-0 4
8.286-04
6.T9E-0 T
TOTAL
4.09E-0S
I.416-05
3.246-05
3 .68E-Q 4
3.21E-C4
1.34E-0 3
1.34E-03
6.79E-0 7
tfTIMC SINCE START OF REPOSITORY OPERATIONS~
-------
Table L-2. (Continued)
AVERAGE ANNUAL LOCAL. DOSE TO INDIVIDUAL. MANIL, IN ZONE 8. IN HILL I REM S/YEAR
100 0. YEARS 0
NUCLIDE
TOT BODY GI TPACT
GONADS
LIVED
LUNGS
NARROW
BONE
THYROID
1
C- 14
2.95E-11
4.98E-10
9.8 06-12
2.856-11
1.65E-10
1.486-10
1.43E-I0
2.85E-11
2
SR-SO
8.06E-14
2.12E-14
8.06E-14
0.0
3.84E—14
3.77E-12
3.77E-12
0.0
3
Y—9 0
4.63E-17
8.666-14
4.63E-17
0 .0
1.396-15
1.7CE-15
1.70E-15
0.0
4
ZR-93
6.796—12
2.6 8E-10
6.79E-12
1 .45E-11
1.04E-10
2.59E-10
2.596-10
0.0
5
NS-93M
1.24E-11
5.32E-10
1.24E-11
5.04E—1 1
1.526-10
1.55E-10
1.55E-10
0 . 0
6
TC-99
4.I0E-11
8.136-09
4.10E-11
1.526-10
3.77E-09
1 . 0 7E-1 0
1.07E-10
0.0
7
I-l 29
4.52E-13
1 .19E- 1 3
6.14E-13
1 . 71E- 1 3
2.7 96—I 3
7.156-13
6.65E-13
1.656-11
8
CS—135
1.5SE-10
1.666-10
1.55E-10
3.48E-10
3.97E-11
3.78E-10
3.78E-10
0.0
9
CS-l 37
2.25E-13
2.47E-13
2.25E-13
5.61E-13
8.94E-13
4.13E-13
4.13E-13
0.0
SUB TOTAL 2.4SE-I0 9.616-09 2.26E-10 5.946-10 4.23E-09 1.0SE-09 1.05E-09 4.5IE-11
10
PB-210
1.19E-11
5.486-13
I.18E-11
1.01E—10
4.85E-10
1.0eE-09
1.08E-09
7.98E-13
11
RA—225
1.45E-10
3.51E-11
1.45E-10
9.01E-13
1.49E-10
I .00E-09
1 a OOE—09
0.0
12
RA-22C
5.486-10
1.37E-12
5.48E-10
4.01E-13
9.26E-1 1
6.5 2E-09
6.52E-09
3.90E-I3
13
TH—229
2.47E-09
5.77E-11
2.47E-09
1 . 03 E— 0 9
2.12E-08
1.57E-0 7
1.57E-07
0.0
1 4
TH-2 30
9.03E-10
7.37E-12
9.03 E—10
1 .49E-0 9
3.00E-09
3.35E-0 8
3.356-03
1.15E-12
19
NP—237
1.056—07
6.16E-09
6.00E-08
I.41E-06
8.026—07
3.586-06
3.5BE-06
8.25E-09
16
NP-239
2.51E—06
I.73E-06
2«93E—06
1.096-0 6
2.17E-06
4.06E-06
4.05E-0 6
2.63E-06
1 7
PU—238
2.78E-07
5.256-09
1.68E-07
4.I4E-06
3.2 6E-06
9.68E-06
9.68E—06
9.49E-11
18
PU—239
1.00E-06
1.61E-08
S.41E-07
1.46E-0 5
9.49E-06
3.66E-0 5
3.666-05
2.18E-10
19
PU-2 40
1.13E-05
1.82E-07
6.11E—06
1o65E—04
1 .07E-04
4.12E-0 4
4.12E-04
3.38E-09
20
PU—241
1.35E-08
4.63E-10
1.29E-08
9.3SE-0 8
4.76E-09
5.52E-0 7
5.52E-07
0.0
21
AM—241
2.70E-OS
7.97E-07
1.52E-05
3 . 8IE—0 4
2.23E-04
9.14E-0 4
9. 14E-04
9.54E-07
22
AM— 24 2 M
1.38E-07
6.29E-10
7.48E-08
1.92E-06
4.79E-0 7
4.91E—0 6
4.91E—0 6
0.0
23
AM—243
2.G5E-0 5
5.77E-07
1.12E-0 5
2•66E— 04
1 .61E-04
7.1 IE—0 4
7.11E-0 4
6.56E-07
24
CM—2 42
2.12E-09
2.33E-09
2.076-09
3 .72E-0 8
2®75E-0 7
7o09E-0 8
7.09E-0 8
2.006-I I
2 S
CM—244
2.65E-18
1.08E—I9
2.12E-18
4.07E-17
4.97E-17
8.81E—17
8.81E—I 7
5.76E-20
SUB TOTAL 6.29E-05 3.32E-06 3.63E-05 8.56E-04 5.08E-04 2.10E-03 2.10E-0J
TOTAL
6.29E-05 3.336-06 3.63E-05 8.56E-04 5.086-04 2.10E-03 2.10E-03
4.26E-06
4.26E-06
«T1 HE SINCE START OF REPOSITORY OPERATIONS.
-------
Table L-2. (Continued)
AVERAGE annual LOCAL. DOSE TO INDIVIDUAL. MANlLg IN ZONE 8. IN MILLIREMS/YEAR
10000. YEARS•
K
NUCLIDE
TOT BODY
GI TRACT
GONADS
LIVER
LUNGS
MARROW
BONE
THYROID
1
C-14
1.01E-1O
1.716-09
3.36E-11
9.80E-1 1
5.236-10
5.0 56-10
5.05E-10
9.30E-I1
2
SR-90
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3
V—90
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
4
ZP-93
6.31E-11
2.606-09
6.31E-1I
1.34E-10
9.63E-10
2.40E-0 9
2.40E-09
0.0
5
NB-9 3M
1.15E-I0
5.I7E-09
I.15E-10
4.68E-10
1.4 IE—0 9
1.43E-09
1.43E-09
a • o
6
TC-99
3.91E—1O
7.75E-08
3 .9 1 E—10
1.45E-09
3.43E-08
1.02E-0 9
1 .026—09
0.0
7
1-1 29
4.256-12
1 «13E-12
S.77E-12
1.61 E—12
2.62E-12
6.71E—12
6.24E-12
1.62E—10
e
CS-I35
1.516-09
1.82E-09
(.5IE-09
3.40E-0 9
3.88E-10
3.6 £6—09
3.69E-09
0.0
9
CS-137
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0. 0
SUB TOTAL
2.19E-09
8.88E-08
2.12E-09
5.S6E-0 9
3.76E-08
9.06E-09
9.06E—09
2.60E-I0
M
CTi
10
PB-210
6.00E-09
2.716-10
5.93E-09
5.12E-0 8
2.36E-07
5.43E-07
S.43E-07
3.89E-10
1 1
RA-225
1.33E-08
3.22E-09
1.33E-08
0.286-1 1
1.3IE-08
9,196-0 8
9.19E-08
0. 0
12
RA—2 26
2.77E-07
6.89E-10
2.77E-07
1.976-10
4.486-08
3.29E-06
3.29E-06
1.89E—10
13
TH—229
2.1 BE—07
5.33E-09
2.1 BE—07
9.07E-0 8
1 .87E-06
1.38E-05
1 .38E-05
0.0
1 4
TH—230
9.32E-08
7.94E-I0
9.32E-08
1.546-0 7
3.10E-07
3.4CE—0 6
3.46E-06
I. 196-10
1 5
NP—237
1e 04E—06
6.19E-0 8
6.00E-07
1 .41E-05
7.96E-06
3.58E-05
3.586-05
8.22E-08
16
NP—2 3 9
1.04E-05
7.23E-0 6
1.22E-05
7.846-06
9.02E-06
1.69E-0 5
t .68E-0S
1.09E-05
1 7
PU—238
7.t16-23
1.40E-24
4.31£—23
I a 06E—2 1
8.34E-22
2.47E-21
2.476-21
2.44E-26
1 8
PU—239
3.05E-0S
5.126-07
1.65E-05
4.456-04
2.89E-04
1.116-03
1.1 IE—0 3
6.656-09
19
PU—2 40
4.40E-05
7.436—0 7
2.3BE-05
6.42E-0 4
4. 1 7E-C4
1 . 6 IE—0 3
I.616-03
I.32E-08
20
PU—241
6.21E-0B
2.22E-09
So 9IE—OB
4.28E-0 7
2.186-08
2.536-06
2.53E-06
0.0
21
A14-2 4 1
5.S4E-06
1.66E-07
3.13E-06
7.82E-0 5
4.55E-05
1.8SE-04
1 .88E—04
1.9SE-07
22
AM-242M
4.S6E-23
2.3 IE—25
2.636-23
6.76E-22
1.67E-22
1.73E-2 1
1.736-21
0.0
23
AM—243
8.87E-05
2. 53E-06
4.84E-05
1.24E-0 3
6.926-0 4
3.076-03
3.07E-03
2.83E-06
24
CM—2 42
7.486—25
8.S6E-25
7.296-2 5
1.316-23
9.6 IE—23
2.S0E-2 3
2.50E-2 3
7.29E-27
2 £
CM—2 44
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
SUB TOTAL
1.81E—04
1.13E-05
1.056-D4
2.43E-03
1.466-03
6.066-0 3
6.06E-03
1.41E-05
TOTAL
1*81E —0 4 1.13E-05 1.05E-04 2.43E-03 1.46E-03 6.066-03 6.066-03 1.4IE-05
011ME SINCE START OF REPOSITORY OPERATIONS.
-------
Table L-2. (Continued)
AVERAGE ANNU\L LOCAL OOSE TO 1NC1VI0UAL. MAMLi IK 2GNE 0, IN MILL 1 flZMS / YEAR
100000. YEARS#
K NUCLIOE TCT BCDY GI TRACT GONADS LIVcK LUNGS MAPRGW QONZ TMYRO]O
1
C-14
la85E—14
3«1SC-13
6 ?1 4E-1 5
1c 84E —I 4
3a53E —1 4
9o 24E-14
9o 2 41—14
1» 84E-14
2
Sf>— 9 C
0* Q
0.0
0,0
OaO
Oo 0
Of, 0
HnO
Oa 0
2
Y-9C
0* 0
0 .0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
o«o
0.0
4
ZF-92
2o 9bE —1 0
2alOE-08
2«9CE-10
S o 30E-1 0
4045E-09
1.13E-06
t a1! = -0d
Oq 0
S
NQ-9 3M
5a3SE-10
$•1 eE-oe
5 p3GE-10
2a X8£- 09
6*51c:-0g
60 70E-09
6o 701-09
3 a 0
6
TC-99
3.99C-05
7.74F-03
3•99E-0 3
1 -461-04
6a Q «2c.—0 5
1o 01E-04
Jo01E-04
Oo 0
7
I -1 29
3a 1 £E-Q«
3o20E-O8
3o47E-Od
1 a ?.2ii- 0 e
Sol 11-09
?o 42E-0 ?
3 3E-0*
lo 6GE-05
e
CS-13E
l*24E-0e
la5 0E-08
1.24E-0B
79c-00
o.191-09
3 . 0 31-0 S
3 * 031—0 3
g * n
9
CS -12 7
OaO
0« 0
OoO
Oo 0
Oo 0
0* 0
0« 0
Oe 0
sue TCT AL
3 •99E—05
7.74E~03
3•99E-0S
1,483-04
6.021-05
1 oCIE—04
1.01E-04
1 .661-0 5
1 C
PU-210
3« 70E-C7
1» 33E-08
3» 67E-07
3 * 24 E— 0 6
9a 3 6E —0 6
3o 45E-05
3-* 441-05
1.56E-08
1 1
RA-22 5
8.571-07
2.05E-07
Qa5 7E-07
5® 34E-0 9
7fcE—07
5q 93E-06
5a93E-06
0« G
1 2
PA-22f
1« 9OE — 05
4o40F-08
Xa90E-&5
9o 32E-09
la 77E-06
2o26E-0 $
261-04
7 o50E-0 9
1 3
T H—2 29
0a 04E-01
3o4 1E-07
8•0 4E—0 6
3*351-06
6.81S-05
5.1OE—0 4
5•10 E—0 4
0 « 0
1 4
TH-2 3 0
2* 83 E —06
4« 06E-08
2oQ3E-06
4«67E-0 fc
9o33u-0€
1105E-0 %
to 051-04
3o 61E-09
1 £
NP-2 3 7
5» 46E-06
3«49E-07
3 a 1 3E-06
7a 47E-05
3a 7dC —0 5
lofl^E— 0 4
la 89E—04
3 e93E—0 7
11
NP-2 39
7.4 9E-0 9
5.66H-09
a.72E-09
5 * 62E-0 9
6 • 4 7h —0 9
1*2lE-03
1 o 2IE —03
7o 85E-09
1 7
PU-2 3e
0» 0
0 a 0
0*0
OoO
OaO
0» 0
Oi 0
Oa 0
1 e
PU-239
2* 70E-O5
6. 15E-07
1« S0E-G5
4a 06E-Q4
2.62G-04
le0ZE-03
1.02C-0 3
5.1OE— 0 9
19
PU-24 0
3•54 C —08
i.04E-09
1»92E-0tt
5»l7E-07
jtjSL-07
I.29E-0*
Io 2 9Z —0 6
Io 07E-11
2 C
PU-2 41
2o61E—10
lob41-l1
?„49E-!t0
lo80E-09
9oi 4E-1 \
KoOcF-03
To 06E-0 1
Oo o
21
AM—2 41
2a 5GE-0G
9a 2 7E- 1 0
I •44E-06
3,62^-0 7
1.89E-0 7
8.6 ^E-07
9.69i-07
Am 191-10
22
AM-24 2 M
0*0
OaO
OoO
OaO
OoO
Oj 0
Oa 0
Oo 0
23
AM — 24 3
2a 04E-0 7
7« 1 3E-09
tsHE-07
2« 86E-06
1o 4 3 E—0 6
7 o 06E-0 6
7rt 071—0 6
So 09E-09
24
CM—2 42
0.0
0,0
0.0
0,0
OoO
0 • 0
OjO
0 o 0
2E
CM-24A
Oo 0
Oa 0
OaO
Oo 0
040
OoO
On O
Oo 0
SUB TOTAL
6.47E-05
1 .82E-06
4« 94E-0S
4 • 96E — 0 4
3o^2E-04
2f1OE —0 3
2i» 1 OE—03
4„4DE-07
TOTAL
la 05E-04
7»74E~03
8.94E-0S
6 • 4 4Z - 0 4
4•5 2E — 0 4
2 « 20E—0 3
2-2T1-0 3
1 .701-0 5
«TI ME SINCE START CF REPOSITORY OPERATIONS®
-------
Tabie L-2. (Continued)
AVERAGE annual LOCAL DOSE TO IC4 C 1V I DU AL. HA NJ L * IN ZONE 8. in WILLI REMS/YZAR
1000000* YEARS*
to
cn
vo
K
NUCLIDE
TOT BCCY
GI TRACT
GONADS
LIVER
LUNGS
HARROW
BONE
THYROID
1
C~1 4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
OeO
0,11
On 0
Oo 0
2
SR-9 0
Oo 0
0.0
OaO
OaO
0.0
Oo 0
0.0
Oo 0
*3
Y— 90
0*0
0.0
0*0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
4
ZR^-93
5.01E-I0
8.84E-08
5.01E-10
1•07E—09
7.1eE-09
lo91E-0S
1.91E-03
0. 0
5
NB-93M
9«14E-tO
1.76E-07
9.14E-10
3 • 71 E— 0 9
1oObE-Oe
lo14E-0a
lo14E-08
0. 0
e
TC-9S
1.25E-05
2.42E-03
1.25E-05
4.65E-0E
4.07E-06
3.15E-C5
3.15E-05
0. 0
7
I-l 29
1.17E-07
1.55E-07
lol8E-07
4.55E-0E
1.23E-0S
5« 5£E-03
So 55E-0B
So 21E-05
0
CS-I3E
6.4 0E-08
7.74E-0 8
6.4OE-0 8
1.44E-0 7
1.64E-08
lo5CE-0 7
1.56Z-0 7
0.0
9
CS-137
0.0
0.0
0*0
0.0
0.0
0. 0
0.0
0. 0
SUB TCTAL
1.27E-05
2.42E-03
1.27E-05
4.67E-0 5
4.11t£ —0 €
3.17E-0E
3.17E-03
B•21E—0 5
to
PB-21C
4. 64E-0 7
1.23E-0B
4.63E-07
4.19£— 0 6
5.02E-06
4.4tE-0S
4.45E-0S
8.5 3E-0 9
tl
RA-225
1.28E-05
3.02E-0 6
1.28E-05
7.95H-oe
2.6 9E—Ot
8o 8 4E-0 5
3.B4C-05
0.0
12
RA—226
2* 63E-05
5.73E-0B
2.636-05
8»07E-09
9.50E-07
3e i 3E-0 4
3.13E-04
4o16E-09
13
TH—229
4« 76E-C5
5« 04E-06
4.76E-05
1.982-0 5
3.3bE-04
3 .O2E-03
3.02E-03
0.0
14
TH—230
1« SSE-06
5.53E-OB
1.5SE-06
2.59E-0 6
5.00E-06
5.77E-0E
5.77E-0 5
lo 9SE-0 9
IS
NP-2 3 7
la37E-05
1.02E-06
7.67E-06
1 « 90 E — 0 4
6,90E-05
4«77E-0 4
4o 77E—04
7.3BE-07
16
NP-2 3S
1.18E-11
9.S0E-12
1.37E-11
a.esE-i2
1.02E-11
I.90E-1I
1.90E-11
1.24E-1I
1 7
PU-2 3e
0* 0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Oo 0
Oo 0
ie
PU-239
1.43E-10
1* 08E-11
7.72E-11
2. 09 E— 09
1.3 3t—09
5.22E-09
5.23E-09
3.1BE-14
19
PU-24 0
8.72E-13
6.57E-14
4.72E-13
1.27E-11
a.iie-i2
3.18E-11
3.18E-U
2a66E—16
20
PU-2 4J
4» 58E—3 t
B.6 5E-38
36E—36
3«16S-3S
1©61E—3 6
lcS6E-34
laa6E-34
Oft 0
21
AH-2 41
4.72E-34
lo 20E-35
2.67E-54
6.6S£-33
4.17E-33
1.oOE-32
1.60E-32
1 .78E-3S
22
AM-242V
0.0
0*0
0*0
0. 0
0.0
Oft 0
0.0
0. 0
23
AH—2 43
1« 41E—10
7.I6E-12
7.68E-11
2« 00 E— 0 9
7.22E-I0
4.93E-09
4»93E-09
3.06E-12
24
CM—2 42
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0 , 0
0.0
0 . 0
25
CM—2 44
OeO
0.0
0.0
0. 0
o.o
0* 0
0.0
0.0
SUB TCTAL 1*02E— 04 9.20E-06 9.64E-05
TOTAL 1*156—04 2.43E-03 1.09E-04
2.16E-04 4.67E-04
2.63E-04 4.72E-04
4« 0CE-03
4.03E-03
4o OOE-03
4.03E-03
7.52E-0 7
a.29^-0 5
tfTIME SINCE START OF REPOSITORY OPERATIONS,
-------
Table L-3. Average Annual Nonspecific Dose to Popu-
lation, MAN1N, In Man-rems/Year
AVERAGE ANNUAL NONSPECIFIC DCSE TO POPULATION
* *AMN| IN *ANREMS/YEAR
10 0a
. YEARS*
K NUCLIDE
TCT G 00 Y
Gi TPACT
GONADS
LIVER
LUNGS
MARRO*
B 3 tiz.
THYRQI0
1 C- 14
4.39E-06
7.4se-07
1.46E-08
4 ,395-08
4»39E
-00
2 0 1 9 E— 0 7
¦?oPH-07
40 39E-08
2
5P-90
2» 19E-02
f«20E— 0 3
2#19E—0 2
0 0 0
OoO
i®o<;e 00
1 -5 00
0o 0
3
Y-9 0
le 73E-0C
6o78E— 0 3
l»73E-08
OoO
0.0
6.50E-0 7
6« 50*1 — 07
0.0
4
ZP-92
1* 25E-1C
2o78E~07
1 e 2 5E-10
2o67S~l0
OoO
Aft 7«E-09
40 79E-09
0« 0
K
NB —9 3 M
lr40E-09
3o 31E-06
lo40E-09
5flo8E-09
OoO
10 74^-08
lo74E-03
Oo 0
6
TC-99
4.03E-07
7.83E-05
4.03E-07
1.50E-06
1-27E
-0 7
I * 0 HE—0 6
1 * 02 Z—06
0.0
7
1-129
1.93E-11
2o60E-l1
1.93E-11
7o52E-l2
OoO
Bo 7 5E-1?
* 0 38^-Oii
B
CS-13S
1.61E-07
1« 96E—>07
1 v 6 1 E— 0 7
3 0 63S— 0 7
4 0 1 4E
-06
3o 93E— 0 7
3o9 37>07
0.0
9
CS-137
4.3 7E—02
4.90E-02
4•37£—02 1« 1 IE— 0 1
1« 2 4h
-02
80 18E—0 1
3o1 BE—02
Oij 0
SUd TCTAL
6o 56E-02
6a 2 IE-0 2
6®56E-02 1«1IE— 0 1
1 . 2 4 E
-0 2
t-17E 00
lot 7rt 00 5.77R-0 8
1 0
PB-ai0
6«9SE—1c
1«32E-13
6« 9SE—12
6* 40E —1 1
0.0
6.81E-10
608IK-I0
OflO
1 1
RA-22S
1.72E-06
4 . OSE-* 09
1.72E-08
1.073-10
0*0
1.19E-0 7
1.19^-07
Oo 0
12
PA—2 26
5o14E-0S
1« 07E—!1
Sol4E-09
9«51E-13
OoO
60j?e—0 a
60t 2H-08
Oo 0
1 2
TH-22?
5.S5E~10
a.62E-10
5 0 a 9 K — 10
2 0 53E— 1 0
OoO
3o 8 7H— 0 8
3-107^-08
0. 0
1 A
TH-230
5.30E-11
4.40E-1i
5a 30E--1 1
1« 09E—10
OoO
1« 92E-09
lo92u-09
Oo 0
1 £
NP-2 3 7
Id 98E-06
2o 02C— 0 7
]•O6E-O6
3®90E-0£
On 0
7« 246-05
7o *?4E-05
0.0
i e
NP-239
0o 65S— 1 2
2o 3 7E- 06
3o6£E-12
1.36^-1 1
0.0
1 . 3 Z7.~ 1
1»32E-10
0*0
1 7
PU-23e
5* 40E-05
2o00E>04
31» 2 7E—05
8•OSE— 0 4
OoO
1.88E-03
lo 83:=-03
Oo 0
i e
PU-239
4o 8CE-07
1o 51E— 0 6
2o 59E-07
6099^-06
0*0
1 •7SE-03
to 73E-05
Oo 0
19
PU-2 4 0
9.37E-06
2*96E—05
5.07E-06
1.37E-04
0.0
3 . 4 3E- 0 4
3o 4 .3rI -0 4
Oo 0
20
PU-2 41
5o22 E—0£
3«53E-07
4 a 96E-08
3.6GE-0 ?
0*0
?o1GE-OG
13Z-36
Oo 0
21
A M —2 4 1
2«27E-03
2o09E>04
lo 26E-03
3*325-02
OoO
7 0 9 7 c— 0 2
7.97^-02
0.0
22
AM— i4 2 K
1«59E-04
5-02E-06
S«60E—0 5
2 ® 21E — 0 3
0«0
5o67E-0 3
5„67E-03
Oo 0
23
AM-24?
5» 0SE—04
4o 63E"0 5
2g 72E-04
70 316— 0 3
OoO
1 a 7 9F.-0?
lo 79^-0?
Oo 0
24
C M—2 4 2
2» 40E — O6
1 © 7 1E-0 5
2.125-06
3 » S3E-05
a .0
7 « G 8E— 0 5
7053^.-05
0.0
25
CM-2 4 4
2«34E-03
4 o92E— 0 4
1 * 90 E—0 3
3 a 65£-0 2
OoO
70 9IE-02
7o91."-02
Oo 0
SLfS TCTAL
S.35E-03
1 ~00E-03
3.566-03
8-03E-0 2
0.0
1 -B5E-01
R5C-01
0*0
TOTAL
7o 09E— 02 6c -1E— 02
6»92E—02 t»91£-01
1 o24E
-02
103£F 0 ^
l-3rir 00
5.77E-08
ATIME SINCE START CF REPOSITORY OPERATIONS*
-------
T LZ
z
m
n
Ti
71
m
¦o
o
on
M
o
<
o
T>
m
T3
>
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o
2
t/1
z ( >
n i r
n I i
>
71
»UM*Al0lB<4(X(A»MMi'O
S»
nn>i>Tj"0T)T)2Z-*H^a-g
IJIIICCCC1TIII>>0I
iiir\jii4iiirT«ili
rorofUA-rorafohjfioporofuf\ifsjroro
frroui^^QiAQin^Oin^uio
C(>OkAttp'OC)NMU»-£D O M 0>
N M M N
m m m m m m m n m in m rti m in ffl n»
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272
-------
Table L-3. (Continued)
AVERAGE ANNUAL NONSPECIFIC DCSH TO POPULATION, XANIN. IN NANREMS/YEAR
NUCLIDE TOT aCJCY GI TRACT
100000* YEARS*
GONADS LIVER LUNGS
MAF.ROW
SOME
THYROID
M
U1
1
C- 14
1.70E-10
2«89E-09
5.63E-11
1.70£-l0
1.70E-10
3.46E-10
B.46E-10
1.70E-10
2
SP-9C
0. 0
0.0
0.0
3. 0
0.0
Oi 0
Oo 0
Oo 0
3
r-9C
0.0
0. 0
0.0
0.0
O. 0
0.0
0.0
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4
ZP-92
4.76^-0e
1.06E-0 4
4 .76E-08
1.026-0 7
0 .0
1.0 2C-0 6
1.83E-06
0.0
£
NB-93M
7.5SE-07
1.80E-03
7.59E-07
3o09E-0fc
0*0
9.44E-0£
9a 44E-0 6
0. 0
6
TC-9S
2.82E-01
5.47E 01
2.6 2E-01
1.0SE 0 0
8.91E-02
7o1 16-01
7olIE—01
0.0
7
1-1 29
8.51E-0e
1.14 E— 0 5
8.51E—06
3.31E-06
0*0
3« 8SE-06
3o 8SE-06
6. 09E-03
e
CS-125
7.936-05
9.62E-05
7.93E-05
l«792-04
2.036-05
1o 9 3E—0 4
1.93E-04
0.0
CS-137
0* 0
0.0
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0.0
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SLB TOTAL
2.82E-01
5.47E 01
2.Q2E-01
1.05£ 0 0
8.91E-02
7. 1 16-0 1
7.11E-01
6a 09E-03
10
11
12
12
14
15
1 t
17
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1 s
20
21
22
23
24
2 £
PB-210
RA—225
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TM-229
TH-230
NP-2 3 7
NP-235
PU-2 3 6
PU-23S
PU-240
PU-241
AM-2 41
AM-242*
AM-2 42
CM-242
CM-244
la 06E-04
To 75E-03
1.67E-01
7. 96E-06
1.S6E-06
4. 1 9E-0S
1.28E-13
0. 0
1.26E-06
1* 62E-09
1.20E-11
2. 02E-0 7
O. 0
1.61E—06
0. 0
0.0
2.01E-06
1. 625-0 3
3.48E-04
1«:6E-05
1.32E-06
4.27E-06
3. 51E-0B
0.0
4.03E-06
5.13E-09
8.13E-U
1.85E-08
0.0
1© 48E —0 7
0*0
0.0
1.06E-04
7.75E-03
1.67 E—0 1
7.96E-06
1.56E-06
2.24E-05
1.28E-13
0.0
6o 91E-07
8.6 0E-10
1.14E-11
lei2E—0 7
0.0
B« 69E-07
Oa O
0.0
5© 7SE-04
4d83E-0S
3.09E-0S
3.41E-06
3.21E-06
6«14E—0 4
3.01E-13
0.0
1.87E-05
2 « 3 BE— O 8
8.30:1-1 1
2o95S-0t>
0. 0
2o33E-05
0. O
0.0
0.0
0.0
0*0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0*0
0.0
0.0
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0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
sue TOTAL 1.756-01 2.20E-03 1.75E-01 1.72E-03 OoO
TCTAL 4.S7E-01 5«47E 01 4.57E-01 loOSE 00 8«91E-0?
«TIME SINCE START CF REPOSITORY OPERATIONS©
1o 0 4E—0 2
5.37E-02
lo9SE 00
So 22E—04
5.66E-05
lo53E-03
1 o 9 EE-1 2
0.0
4 o 6 7E—O 5
5.94E-08
5.02E-10
7© 0 7E—0 6
0.0
Se7 2E-0S
OoO
0« 0
2.0EE 00
2o7£E 00
1.046-02
5.37=-02
1u99E 00
5.23E-04
5.66-—0 5
lo53Z-03
1o95I!-12
OoO
4.67E-05
5.94E-03
5.03E-10
7.07E-0o
0.0
5o72E-05
0. 0
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2.05E 0 0
2o76E 00
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0. O
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0. 0
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0. 0
0.0
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0. 0
0.0
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0. 0
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0.0
u» 09E-03
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Table L-3. (Continued)
AVERAGE ANNUAL NONSPECIFIC OCSS TC POFULATIQN. I'ASIN, IN C4NREMS/YEAR
1000000a
YEARS»
K
nuclide
TCT BCCY
GI TRACT
GONADS
LIVEK
LUNGS
MARROW
~ ~NE
Thyroid
t
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0.0
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o. a
2
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0.0
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0.0
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a
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0. 0
0. O
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0.0
0«0
0*0
0»0
0, 0
4
ZR-9 2
8. 19E-0 6
1o 03E-0 4
B.19E-08
1 . 76E-0 7
0.0
3.15E-0 6
3.15E-0 6
0.0
5
NB-9 3*
1.31E-oe
3.10E-03
1.31E-0 6
5.325-06
OoO
1.63E-QS
lo63E-05
0» 0
t
TC-9S
7.18C-02
1.39E 01
7.10E-O2
2o67e-01
2.27E-02
1o61E-0t
io»iz-oi
0,0
7
1-1 25
1.oaE-05
5.48E-0S
4•OSE-0 5
1.S9E-05
0.0
1.3SE-05
1.355-05
2C 92E-0 Z
e
CS-135
I. 90E-04
2.31E-04
1 »90E—0 4
a.29E-0 4
4«fl8d-0S
4.6 4E-0 4
4e 04E-04
0,0
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CS-137
0. 0
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0. 3
SUB TCTAL 7.21E-02 lo39E 01 7.21E-02 2.6SE-01 2o28E-02 l«82E-0.\ laOBE-Ot 2.92E-02
10
pa-210
6«8fcE-0S
1.30E-06
6.a£E—05
6.32E— 0 4
Oo 0
So 72E-03
6o72E-03
0. 0
11
RA-22S
4.995-02
1.17E-0 2
4.99E-0 2
3. Hi-0 4
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3.46E-01
3.46E-01
OoO
12
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1.02E-01
2.I2F-04
1.02E-01
1.68Z-0 5
0.0
1 . 21E 00
1 .21 £ 00
Oo 0
1 3
TH-225
«•69E-05
6.85E-05
4o 69E-05
2.015-05
0.0
3» OSE-O 3
3a 03E-03
Do 0
1 4
TH-23C
So 73E-07
7.39E-07
8.736-07
lo79E-0e
0.0
3o J6E-0 5
3.1G=-05
0.0
15
NP-2 37
9.66E-01
9.86E-02
Sol8E-01
1 o 422 01
OoO
3o54E 01
3o54E 01
0, 0
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NP-229
lo 26E-11
3o 50E—0 6
1.28E-11
2.00a—11
0.0
1.95E-10
1s95E—10
0,0
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PU-23S
Oo 0
0 .0
0.0
0.0
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0.0
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PU—23S
5e 51 E— 1 2
1.73E-11
2.97E-12
8.02E-11
0.0
2.0 IE- 1 0
2o0lE-l0
0o 0
19
PU-24C
3.3SE-14
1.06E-13
1•01E-1 4
4 a90E—I 3
0.0
1 o 2 EE—1 2
lo22E-12
Oo 0
20
PU-2M
1.1BE-3 7
7 . 9 6c — 3 7
1.12E-3 7
8.13E-3 7
0.0
4o9JE-36
4.93E-36
0o 0
21
AM—2 4 X
3o 93E —33
3.62E-34
2ol6E-33
5o76£-3 2
0*0
io3ee-3i
1.3SE-31
Oo 0
22
AH— 24 2^
0.0
OoO
0.0
OoO
0. u
0.0
0.0
o. o
23
AM—243
a.4 7E-10
7.77E-11
4o 56E—10
1.23E-06
0. 0
3o OOE-oa
3oOOE-oa
Oo 0
24
CM-2 42
0« 0
Oo 0
OoO
OoO
o.o
0.0
Oo 0
Oo 0
2S
CM—2 4 4
0. 0
0.0
0.0
0.0
o
«
o
0.0
0 .0
0.0
SUB TOTAL
1.I2E 00
lo1 IE—01
6.7 OE —01
1o42£ 01
0.0
3ofcSE 01
3o69E 01
0. 0
TOTAL
1, I 9E 00
t o 4 IE 01
7 o42E-01
io 44E 01
2o28E-02
3o 7 IE OX
"3o 71E 01
2. 92H-02
-
——
_— 1—
ST1ME SINCE START CF PFPOSITCRV GPERATICNS«
-------
APPENDIX M
SUMMARY TABLES OF DOSE CALCULATION OUTPUT
CASE 32
Summary tables at selected times are given in Tables M-l through
M-3 from output Section 6 as follows for volcanic explosion release to
air, Case 32.
1. Average Annual Local Dose to Individual, MAN1L, In Zone 1,
mrem/y (Table M-l) .
2. Average Annual Local Dose to Individual, MANlL, in Zone 8,
mrem/y (Table M-2).
3. Average Annual Nonspecific Dose to Population, MAN1N, man-rem/y
(Table M-3).
01^
-------
Table M-l. Average Annual Local Dose to Individual, MAN1L, In
Zone 1, In Millirems/Year
in?C» YEARS n
K NUCLIDE TOT BCCY GI T^ACT GONADS LIVER LUNGS MARROW FJQNE THYROID
1
C- 1 4
J 0
S6E-
0 2
2 «
49F-
0 1
6.
6 3E-
0 3
OaC
2a 77L
on
1 005E-
0 1
1«05E—
01
0.
3
2
£ R— 9C
1 »
4*-E —
03
2 a
6 7E—
0 5
1 0
44£-
0 3
Og 0
7o 64E—
03
2b16E-
02
2o16E-
02
3
3
V-9 0
5 e
32E-
07
5 e
73c-
05
9.
3 2E-
07
0. 0
2 o 9 2E—
¦05
3o 4 3E-
¦C 5
3«43E-
05
08
0
4
Zfc-93
1 o
3&r-
0 I
2 e
1C&-
0 1
1 «
3 5E-
0 1
2,88E-
C 1
2 a 1 Ot
CO
5o I 6E
0 0
5« 16Z
00
Oo
0
5
NB-5 2M
2 o
4 71-
CI
3®
0 3F-
0 1
2. 9
4 7F-
01
1 a DUE
00
3 (09c
00
3c oeE
00
3e 03E
00
Oe
0
€
TC- 5 9
9o
4 3E-
03
37E
oo
9 »
4 3F-
C 3
3® 50E-
02
7o 62E
0 1
9» 2 8E—
•0 2
9a 29t-
02
0,
0
7
I- 1 £9
6,
t>2H-
C 3
1 a
39E-
03
9.
lf-F~
< 3
2© 50E-
0 3
4059E>C3
lo oeE-
02
1e 01E —
02
2 9
23E-
02
e
CS-135
1 a
05F-
0 1
9.
3 1E-
02
1 a
0 5E—
01
2 « 20E-*
0 1
2a 7 4t—
02
2 o 55£—
01
2a55E-
~ I
0 a
0
9
CS-127
1«
87E>
04
1 «
2 4fc-
04
1 <»
8 7E-
04
2.96E-
0 4
1.69E-
0 2
2 a 17E-
0 4
2.17~~
34
n .
0
SUB TCTAL
fc.
2 5F-
0 1
6.
2 3ET
00
5 o
t 4 F—
01
1 » 55E
00
6o4.3E
01
8, 72E
0 0
a. 73S
C3
2.
2 jE—
0 2
10
pa-2 i n
6« cqf—
02
5«
5 SE-
0 3
6f
46E-
t'2
4 «. 84E—
0 I
9ad4E
00
5 o 1 CE
00
59 09E
JO
1 0
23E-
02
1 1
& A-2 2E
2 a
2 7E>
02
2.
79F-
C 2
2.
2 7F-
C2
U44E-
04
3a02c
00
1o 54E-
¦0 !
1a54E-
0 1
0.
D
1 2
RA-2 26
6 a
4 7E-
0 I
4 a
71 E-
03
6 a
4 9E -
0 I
4® 70E-
03
1 a 88E
CO
7„ 63E
0 0
7,63^
0.1
6s
OOF-
03
12
TH- 22 5
«<
5 OE
01
Jf.
24E-
02
4 «
9 OE
0 1
2 q 05c
0 1
40 3 OE
02
3, 13E
03
3al3E
03
0a 0
1 4
TH-2 2D
1.
eiE
01
1 <»
2 8F-
0 2
1 •
8 IE
0 1
2 « 99E
0 1
6a 0 9E
0 1
6o 74E
02
6o 74E
0 2
1 a
77E-
02
1 E
NP-2 3 7
1 >
81 C
03
7 a
32E
0 1
1 a
0 3E
03
2 o 46E
04
lo 62E
(14
6o 2 2E
04
6« 23E
04
1 o
27E
02
1 €
NP-235
J «
86 F
04
2.
55E
04
4 a
5 OE
04
2, 90 E
04
3s 34t
04
6a 22E
04
6» 22E
04
4 a
04
1 7
PU—2 3 a
5,
6 IE
C3
J.
9 1E
T r
3 »
40?
03
8 a 35E
0 4
6a62E
04
1 o 9 £E
05
lo 95E
0 5
1 a
46=
00
i e
PU-2 29
2»
rpE
f 4
1 Q
C5F
0 1
1 «
C9E
04
2<» 95E
05
1 a 92E
05
7a 35E
05
7o 39E
03
3,
3 5E
00
1 s
PU-£ 4 C
tZ a
2 bC
f.'t
1 e
3oE
02
1 ¦
2 3 E
0 5
3. 33E
ce
2a 1 7E
C 6
8. 32E
06
So 32E
0 6
5 •
19E
0 1
2C
PU-2 41
-------
Table M-l. (Continued)
ANNUAL LOCAL DOSE TO INDIVIDUAL
10000. V E AR S V
KUC L ID E
TOT .BCCY G1 TRACT
GONADS
1
2
3
4
5
e
7
e
5
10
i 1
i 2
1 3
1 4
1 £
16
1 7
1 E
1 9
20
21
22
2 3
24
2 £
C-14
£ R— SC
Y- 9 0
ZP- S3
NB-9 3M
TC- 5 5
1-129
CS- 1 35
C5-137
A.41E-02
Co 0
0. 0
6.4 1E-02
1 o 54E-01
5« 75F-03
5. 44P-C3
6» 54E- 02
C» n
5® 5 EE** 02
C.O
0.0
1 « 3 IE— 0 1
1e 8 8E— 01
3a 28E 00
1•145-0 3
5o 3 2F-02
o.o
1 a 4 8E"03
0.0
0,0
8o 41E-C 2
1o54£-01
5. 75E-03
7.4 BE—03
6«5tc-02
O.O
LI VER
0.0
0«0
0. 0
1•79E-01
6 « 23£— 0 1
2®14E-02
2 « 05£"0 3
1 «37£-0 1
G.O
5U3 TOTAL 3.19E-01 3.71E 00 3el8E-01 9.63Si-01
PB-2 1 r
P A- 2 2 £
RA-226
T H— 2 25
TH—2 3C
N P— 2 37
NP-2 35
PU-*2 3 e
PU-2 35
PU-2 40
PU-2 41
AM— 2^1
AM-2^2f
AM—2 4 1
CM— 2 4 2
CM« 2 4 4
02
0 2
0 3
04
2o32E 00
1e33F—01
2.ICE 01
2o 9 IE
1. 256
lo 226
1 a 4CE
9. 6C E- 1 4
4.12E C 4
5 e 55E 04
B# 38E 0 1
6.45E 03
5.62F-14
1.C3F 05
8, 57E-1 t
C .0
2 «54E— 01
1«64E-n 1
1 »95E-C1
lo 9 1?- 0 1
I o 09E-0 1
6o2 7E 01
5o 6 OE 03
7, 13E- 17
2® 32E 01
3 e 7 BE 01
7.1 2E-0 2
1 . 2 6E 0 2
6«65E-18
1« S5E 03
3.2 £E- 1 7
0.0
2» 23E 00
1s33E-01
2.: IE 0 1
2c. 9 1 £ 02
1 « 25E 0 2
7.09E 02
1«69E 04
5.82E-14
2a 22E 04
3o22E 04
7.96E 01
3® 65E 03
3.0 5E- 1 4
5 e 6 4E 04
8 o 50E—16
0.0
1 e 53c
8.45«E-
U 99c-
1 • 21E
2.0 7c
1 « 6 5E
1 o 09£
1.43c-
' eOlE
. £8E
5 a 79s
9. 06E
7. 83E-
1 o63E
1 o 55t£*
O-P
8
0 1
¦04
0 1
02
0 2
04
04
¦ 1 2
05
05
02
04
¦ 1 3
oe
¦14
SU0 TCTAL 2.27E 05 1.17E 04 1„3?E 05
TOTAL 2«27b 05 1. 1 7E 04 1«,33E 05
0 TI ME SINCE STAPT OF REPOSITORY OPERATIONS.
3.02E 05
3 e02E 0 6
MA NIL* IN £ONF. 1, IN MI LL I 3EM5/YEAR
LUNGS MARROW BONE THYROID
6.17E-0 1
0«0
Oe 0
1 o 3 It: 00
1 o 9 2E 0 0
4o65E 01
3«53E-0 3
1«7 IE—02
0.0
5o03E 01
3o 20E 02
1 e 77E 01
6.08E 01
2.54E 03
4.21E 02
1o06E 04
1.26E 04
le 13E-12
3» 92E 05
5.67E 05
2© 96E 01
6o18E 04
2.27E-13
So 4CE 05
1o 31E—13
Go 0
1.99E 06
1 e 99E 06
2. 3 5E-02
0. 0
0.0.3. 2 IE 00
1 •91E 00
5.66E-02
0» B9E-03
1. 5 5E-0 1
0.0
5 b 37E 00
1 e 6€E 02
9.05E-01
2o47E 02
1 a 8 4E 04
4.66E 03
4« 1 5E 0 4
2s35E 04
3» 3 4E— 1 2
U51E 06
2. 17E 06
3. 4 IF 03
2o17E 05
2.0CE-1 2
3.56E 06
2eS9E-l4
0« 0
7.55G 06
7« 5£E 06
2.355-02
o.o
o.o
3® 21E 00
I 9 91E 00
5.66E— 02
8.2 7E-03
1.59^-0 1
0.0
5. 37E 00
1 o 6oc 02
9.05E-01
2s 47E 02
1e 84E 04
4.66E 03
4«15E 04
2. 34E 0 4
3.34^—12
I o 51E 0 6
2. 17E 06
3o 41 E 03
2«17E 05
2. nr)E-l 2
3o56E 06
2.89E-14
0.0
7.55E Co
7.55E 05
0. 3
0. ¦*
0.0
0® 1
0« 0
0. 0
1•53E-02
0.0
0.0
1 8 53E-02
5 o23H-01
0.0
2e 55E-0 1
0.0
1 » 60EZ-0 1
le 1 IE 02
1.53^ 04
3d28E-17
8o 95E 00
lo 78E 0 1
0. 0
2o63E 02
0.0
3.90E 03
9.3IE—13
0. 3
1.95E 0 4
1 e 95E 0 4
-------
Table M-l. (Continued)
AVLPAGC ANNUAL LOCAL OjSE TO IN C I V I OU AL . MA NIL? IN iONE 1 » IN M I L L I 3 E M S / YE A R.
'.0 00 0 0 a YtArtS#
K NUCLlDt TQT BCtTY GI TRACT GONADS LIVER LUNGS MARROW rl-'JNE THYROID
3
c- 14
2.
2 3R-
C 6
2 o 0C F-0 7
7 a
4I5F-0 9
0
a
c
3»1 2E-
0 6
1 0
1 9E-
0 7
1.193-
0 7
0 a
¦)
2
S ft- 9 ¦"
0 a
r
Oo
0
0
9
(<
0*0
0 o
0
•">, 1
CU
3
3
Y— 9 0
0«
0
0» 0
0« 0
0
Q
0
OoO
Oo
0
Oaf
0.
r>
A
£P -93
1.
I 4E~
0 2
1 . 7 7F-0 2
1 •
14F-02
2
a
42E-
0 2
1«77E-
0 1
4.
3 3E-
C 1
4,33E-
n 1
0 e
¦)
5
Ne-<3 3M
2 o
C7F--
° 2
2., 5402
2 g
0 7£-0 2
8
o
39E-
02
2«5 at>
0 1
2a
5 £E—
0 1
2 9 "3 8 r—
01
0,
0
e
TC- 9 9
6a
oet-
C4
3. 4 6F-C 1
e«
r;eE-o<*
2
»
26E—
03
4 ® 91 E
GO
5.
9 8E—
0 3
5c 9 3il-
0 3
n.
¦)
7
I- 1 29
7.
5 8E-
C 4
1 a 59E- 0 4
1 e
C 4E>n 3
2
8oc —
04
4 « 92l£—
0 4
1 a
2 4E-
03
1 a 1 5f->
03
2a
14E-D3
6
C 5- 1 3 5
a.
98E-
03
7.99E-03
9,
9fit—0 3
1
a
83c-
02
2.35E-
03
2• i eE-
02
2a I8S —
02
0,
0
5
CS~137
C a
0
A « 0
o.
C-
0
•
C
0,0
0.
0
0..1
0 *
0
SUB TOTAL
4,
2 4{j ¦—
02
3 »97F-0 1
4 o
27E-02
1
a
20E-
0 1
5*3 5E
00
7 e
20 E-
0 1
7a 20E-
0 1
2 c
1 4E-0 3
1 C
PB— 2 1 C
2 o
6 9P.
OC
2.9 5E-0 1
2.
5 8F. CO
1
o
84E
0 1
3<»72f£
02
1 0
93E
02
1 • 93E
02
6o 07c:— 0 1
1 1
&A-22E
1 .
«2F-
CI
1* 74F-01
1 •
42E-0 1
9
o
01E-
04
loBJE
01
9a
65E-
0 I
9.65E-
0 1
0.
0
1 2
RA-2 26
2.
44E
C 1
2. 26E-0 1
2 «
44E 0 1
2
a
3 IE—
0 1
7« 0 4t
C 1
2 *
6CE
02
2a <36E
02
2a
95E-0 1
I 3
T H— 2 29
j a
1 OE
02
2a 04£> 0 I
3 «
1 OF 02
1
0
29E
0 2
2(7 OE
03
lo
96E
04
I • 96E
04
Oa
0
1 4
TH-23C
I.
ICE
0 2
9. e 1F-C2
1 .
1 PL r 2
1
a
82 £
0 2
3. 7 1E
02
4.
1 f!E
C-3
4o 10E
0 3
la
415-0 1
1 £
NP-2 27
1 •
7Ct
C 2
o « B 2iT 0 0
9.
83H 01
2
a
27Z
0 3
t • S0£
C 2
5 a
75E
03
5a 7ac
')3
1 9
3 3E 0 1
i e
KP-2 39
«•
& 1F-
0 I
5,a IE- 01
1 o
02E 00
6
G
62E-
0 1
7« 61E-
01
1 6
42E
00
1 a 42E
01
9 o
2 3E-0 1
1 7
PU-238
C ~
r
**
„o
0 .
0
0
a
C
0*0
0«
0
0On
0»
l e
PU-2 29
1«
10F
0 2
t«i 8=-e i
5 a
92F 02
1
o
60E
Oh
1 o 04E
04
4 e
0 IE
04
4a 0 1E
0«*
2,
36Z-0 1
1 5
PU-2 4 r
1 .
39E
00
B« 35E-f4
5 4 E-01
2
Q
03c.
0 1
1 . 33L
ri
5 a
09E
0 I
5 a 0 9F:
r> i
4»
1 6F.-0 4
20
PU— 2 4 I
) •
r 3f-
0 2
<3, 732-06
9«
79F-03
7
a
1 OE—
0 2
3 e 63E —
•0 3
4,
1 6E-
0 1
4o13£—
•">!
Oc
)
21
AM— 2 4 I
7,
6F f —
01
1 a 54F — 02
4 «
44E-01
I
o
1 0£
0 1
7o 52E
00
2o
54E
0 1
2.64S
01
3a
2C£-G 2
22
AM-24 2M
0.
c
0
0 a
c
0
4
r
0.1)
0.
0
0.
n
2 2
AM-24 2
6,
2 5n
O'T
1 « 1 2--C 1
3 e
4 1 L 0 0
a
s
fc7i"
0 1
5. 6 9£
01
2 o
1 6E
0 2
2o IS-"
02
2.
3 OF-0 1
24
C M— 2 4 2
Oo
0
0« 0
0 o
0
0
«
0
OoO
0,
0
0,0
.1
2 E
CM-2 44
r..
0
-¦»
« 9 V
n.
C
0
a
C
0«0
0»
0
0.
0,
-}
SUt: TGTAL
1 «
72£
n *a
! • 1 I £
1 o
1 4£ P3
l
o
G TcL
0 4
1 a 56fc
04
7 «
0 4E
0 4
04^
>¦>4
1 n
73F. C 1
TOTAL
1.
72f:
03
1.10 1
1 «
t 4F 03
l
9
87 =
04
1 • 5 6&
04
7 o
0 4E
04
7 s Q4F.
04
1 a
CI
# TIM" SINCE. START OF ^lPGSITC^Y UPSPAT ION3o
-------
Table M—1. (Continued)
AVEfcAGc ANNUAL LCC4L DOSE TO INDIVIDUAL. MAN 1 L» IN ZONE 1, IN MILLI RfTMS/Y£TAR
NUCL ID P
TOT BCCY GI TRACT
ICGOOOO. YEARS#
GONAOS LIVER
LUNGS
1
2
3
4
5
t
7
E
9
C- 14
SR- 90
Y-9 0
IP- 9 2
NB-9 3M
Tc-se
I- 1 29
CS-13S
CS-137
0,0
C. C
0. 0
2» 2,OE-11
4.CCE-11
1.07E-1 3
2. 1 IE- 1 2
2a 12E- 1 1
C.O
Oe 0
C.r
0, o
3.42E- 1 1
4.9CE- 1 1
6.C8E>11
A.4 IE- 1 3
1 »39t- 1 1
C • 0
3*0
0.0
0*0
2.2CE-1 1
4 . CC E-1 1
1.0 76-13
2 a 90E- 1 2
2.12E-1 1
0.0
0.0
0*0
0. 0
4.o9E- 1 1
1e 62c— 10
3.965-13
7 a 96E— 1 3
4 »45E— 1 1
o.c
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.42E-10
4.9 9E-10
Q.62E—10
I .3 7E—12
5o55E-l2
0. 0
MARROW
0.0
0.0
0. 0
B.38E-10
4.9 BE— 1 0
leOSE-12
3.4 5E-12
5.iee-ii
0.0
BONE
0.0
0.0
0«0
8.33E-10
4.99E- 1 0
1o 0 5K—I 2
3.21 E— 1 2
5.15E—1 1
0.0
THYROID
0.0
0. ¦)
0 .0
0.0
0® o
0. 5
5.95E-12
0.0
C.« 0
SUB TOTAL e*54E-ll 1.63E-1 0 S.62E-11 2.55E-10 1.71E-09 1.39E-09 1.39E-09 5.95E-12
10
1 1
1 2
1 3
14
1 £
1€
1 7
1 e
19
2C
21
22
23
2 4
25
PB-Z1C
F A-2 25
RA-226
Th-229
TH-230
NP-2 37
NP- 239
PU-2J8
PU-2 3?
PU- 2 4T
?U»2 4 1
AM-2t I
AM— 242 ^
AM-2A2
CM-2 42
CM-2 44
1 . 73E-09
9. 62t-lC'
1 • S6E-08
2» 1 OE- 06
71-1 0E-0 6
2« 72E-C7
?.47£- 13
C . t
e»64E-l2
4.C5E- 14
2o f GF-34
1 a 9 OE— 32
Go C
3oTeE-12
0.0
c.c
1.9CE- 10
1 . 1 9c- C- 9
1 .4 5E- 10
1 .3BE-09
6.18E-11
1 .93C-P 6
3.6 IE- I 3
O.C
3«75E—15
2.57E-17
1« 70E—37
3. 73E-34
CoO
6.76E-14
0. 0
O.C
1 .66E-09
9. 6 2E-1 0
1«57E-C8
2. 1 OE— 0 6
7. 1 TE-0 8
2. I 5E-0 7
6.37E-13
0.0
3.59E-12
2.19E-14
I.90E-34
1.OeE-32
C.O
2 « 06E—12
0.0
C.O
1 • 18i£—0 8
6.115-12
1.48E- 1 0
9 a 75£— 0 7
1. 17E-0 7
4 o96E— 0 fc
4* HE-13
o.r
9ae9E- 1 1
5 e 92E —13
1•38E— 3 3
2 « 67E— 3 1
O.C
5 «24E-1 1
0. 0
O.C
2.39E-07
1.28E-0 7
4e 52E—0 8
1 o83E-05
2.38E-07
3e 2 BE—0 6
4.73E-13
0.0
6.33E-11
3®86E—13
7 e 0 ~E - 3 5
lo 8 2E.—3 1
C.O
3»44E-11
0.0
0<3 0
SUb TOTAL
TOTAL
2» 56E—C fc
2« ttE-06
2.23E-C e
2o24E>08
2.41 E-0 6
2 o 4 1 E— 0 6
5 e 97E —0 6
5.97E-0 6
2.23E-05
2.23E-05
1•24E— 07
6.54E-C 5
1 « 04E-O7
1© 33E— 0 4
2.6 4E-0 6
l-o 2€E— 0 5
8aS4E—13
000
2 » 4 3E— 1 0
1.46E-12
Be12E-3 3
6«4 IE-31
0.0
1 o 3CE-10
OoO
0.0
1.49E-0 4
1*49 E— 0 4
1.24E-0**
6.54E-09
1 604E-O7
1.33E-04
2.64E-06
1.26E-0 5
8o 82E—13
0.0
2e 4 3£f— 1 0
1.48E-12
Be 1 3E-33
6a41E-31
0#0
1o 3 OE— 10
000
0*0
1 .49E-34
I o 49c—04
3.905-10
0. J
1•B9E-10
Oe J
9.0 7E-11
3.42E-08
3.42E-03
#TIM£ SINCE START OF PfPuSITORY CPEKAT IONS.
-------
Table M-2. Average Annual Local Dose to Individual,
MAN1L, in Zone 8, In Millirems/Year
ICO Or YEARS #
K
NUCL IC E
TOT PCCY
G I
t«ac t
GONADS
LIVE
R
LUNGS
MARRC1*
QTNE
THYRDID
1
C-H
7 « 19E-0 3
1 9
22L-01
13
o
39E-03
7 9 1 32-
C 3
1 a 53E—-0 2
3b59E-
02
3«59E-
02
7 a
13E-03
2
SR- 9C
4oCbE-CS
1 a
CeE.-O 5
4
*
f'EE-05
0 0C
2o 31f£ —05
i» a 9E—
0 3
le 89E-
0 3
0.
0
3
V- 9 0
2a f>0E~ 09
2«
1 IE- OS
2
9
6 0E- 0 9
0 Q 0
0o32E-Oe
1 e 0 3E—
0^
1a03E-
0 7
0 e
4
zf-
4. 2 BE-0 4
U a
5 1 F - 0 2
4
O
2 HE—C 4
9.12E-
0 4
t> a 20 E—0 3
1 « 6 3E-
0 2
1 a 6 3.= -
02
0 0
e
N6-93M
7* f-4
i «
3 C E— 0 1
7
4
84F.-04
3 «13c-
0 3
9. 1 IE-03
9 e 7 6 E—
03
9.763-
03
0 5
0
e
TC-?9
1 o 0£E-02
1 «
9 3F. cr
I
0
G2E-C2
3 a7faE —
02
2o2dE-01
2»5eE-
02
2a o3IE —
D2
0.
0
7
I - 1 £5
2.69E-C b
1 0
17E—0 5
3
9
4 9F-C5
1«C2E-
0 t
1 o 4 SE—0 5
3 o7 6E-
05
3.51E-
0 5
39
9^E-C 3
e
C 5- 1 3 5
3. 76F-02
4*
E 7E- 0 2
3
O
76E-02
8 »49£—
02
9« 68E— 0 3
9a 2 0E-
02
90 20E-
02
0.
0
9
CS-137
5a —C 5
6 a
OfcE-05
•
4 3 E— 0 5
1 a 37£-
0 4
6.50E-0 5
1 « 0 1E-
04
1 »01^~
n 4.
0o
0
SUB TCTAL
5«64 t— 0 2
2 B
3AF 0 0
5
•
16E-02
1« 34E—
0 1
2s 68E—01
K82E-
0 1
l e 82E—
01
1 ?
1GE-02
1 c
PB- 2 1 C
2o 3 T F— C. 3
5.
94F-05
2
•
3CE-03
2 . QrJE-
0 2
2o S0E-02
2o2 1 E—
0 1
2 » 2IE-
0 1
3 o
98--0 5
11
PA-225
3 o 5 9c - Cc
9.
5 3E — 0 3
3
•
59E-02
2•£4E-
04
3. 91£-C 3
2 o 4 9E—
0 1
2» 49E—
0 1
0.
0
1 2
R A— 2 2 6
1 . 3 1E.-0 1
2 e
8 4E- 0 4
!
e
31E-0 1
3 o 91E-
0 5
5e 53E-03
1 o 5 6E
00
1 a 56E
00
1 a
95E-0 5
1 3
•TH-229
14 E4E —C 1
1 *
4 IE-02
1
o
54E-01
6 «46E-
02
lo27£ 00
9 o 84E
00
9s 84E
30
0 D
0
1 4
TH-2 3C
5.S^E-C 2
1 o
69E-03
5
4
54E-02
y<. 2IE—
C 2
1.80E-C1
2 • 0 6E
00
2a 0 5E
00
5,
74E-05
1 £
NP-23 7
e* o < e r (.
5 a
99E-01
4
0
92 E 0 0
1 a23E
0 2
4o79E 01
3o 10E
02
3o 10c
02
4 «
12E-0 1
16
NP-239
1.25E 02
1 0
0 2E 0 2
I
9
46E 02
9 • 42E
0 I
1« 06E 02
2 a 0 2E
02
2o 0 2?.
0 2
1 •
31E 02
1 7
PU-2 38
1.69E 01
1 •
2 7E 0C
I
•
*2E 01
2 » 5 1E
C 2
1 o 95E 02
5c 87E
0 2
5s 87F
02
4 3
7 3E-0 3
i e
PU-2 3 c
6aCf.E ri
3 o
9 I E 00
3
9
2 8 E 0 1
9 « 66c
02
5» 67E 02
2 o 2 2E
03
2o 2.2 =
03
1 0
09E-02
1 s
PU-2^r
6•8 c E 0 2
4 •
42 c 01
3
Q
71 E 02
1 .C0E
0 4
6.41E C2
2a 5CE
04
2a 50B
04
1 a
69E-0 1
2C
PU-2 4 1
8« 2 2E- 0 1
la
14E-0 1
7
O
B3E-01
5. 6bE
00
2»85E-01
3s 35E
0 1
3o 35E
01
r>o
D
2 1
AM-24 1
2.30E 03
1 »
08E 0 2
i
•0
29E 03
3 e 30E
04
lo33£ 0 4
70 9 IE
04
7, 91 F
04
4,
76E 01
22
AM-24 2K
1 » 2 C E C J
1 .
5 5E— C 1
6
•
48E 0 D
1 . 6bE
02
2. B6E 0 1
4a 26E
02
4. 26E
0 2
0 a
0
2 3
1o 75E C3
e«
05E C 1
9
0
52F 02
2 « 49E
04
9o6 3E 03
6b 1 A E
04
6s 1 4E
04
3a
27E 0 1
24
CM— 2^-2
1 a BSE-C1
E.
70E-01
1
9
76E-01
3, 11E
00
1 «64E 01
6 o 1 5E
00
6 o 1 5H
r> n
1 o
04E-0 3
25
CM-244
2. 2 6E— 1C
2*
C9E — 1 1
1
«
84F-13
3¦53c —
0 9
2o 98E-C9
7a 65E-
0 9
7o65E—
09
2 a
37E—12
SUB TCTAL
4.9 7c 0 3
3 o
4 1 E 0 2
2
+
1
m |
O (
1
IU 1
—' 1
CO 1
6. 94E
04
3.03t 04
1 a 6 9E
0 5
1 a 69F
05
2.
12E 0 2
TOTAL
4® 97E 03
3«43E 02
2
e
e IE 03
6 e 9«tE
04
3a 03E 04
1 e 69E
05
1 . 69E
1 O 1
1 01 1
1 1
2 e 1 2E 0 2
SINCE START CF fEPGSITCPY UPERATION5,
-------
Table M-2. (Continued)
AVcK/iGE ANNUAL LOCAL DOSE TO INCIVIDUAL* MAN1L. IK ZONE 8, IN MILLI REM S/YEAR
1C000. YEARS#
1
2
3
4
c
C
7
E
9
10
1 1
1 2
13
I 4
& 5
16
I 7
i e
19
20
21
22
23
24
2E
NUCL IDE
C- 14
SR— 9C
Y- 5C
Z£-?3
N9-93M
TC-99
.1-1 29
C S- 1 3 £
CS-137
TOT BCCY GI TRACT
i.90E-G5
C»C
Oa 0
2 a 666-04
5. 2 2E— C A
3 a 5 4E-0 5
1.8SE-05
2a B2F-04
CaC
2.59E— 04
flat)
Oa 0
5.A7E-0 4
So A^E-OA
1a42E-C 2
3c88E—O 6
2a 7 IE— OA
0.0
GGNAOS
6.3 7E-06
0,P
Oft 0
2» 86E—04
5»22E-0A
3.5AE-C5
2 a 5 4E—C 5
2 a 82E—04
O.D
LIVER
4.07E-06
0.0
Oe 0
6 o 10E-04
28 12E-03
1 o31E-0A
6g9dE~ 0 6
6 a 02E-04
0,0
LUNGS
2»1OE—0 3
OaO
Oe 0
4.4 5E-0 3
6#52E—03
laSBE-01
l«20£-05
7 ®36E—05
0.0
MARROW
BONE
THYROID
1.0CE-0 4
0«, 0
OtO
1 .09E-02
6 a 5 0 E— 0 3
2«32E-04
3a 02E-05
6. 86E-04
0.0
1 .OnH-OA
o.o
o9o
1o09E— 0 2
6 o 5 0 c—0 3
2.32E-C4
2a 61E-0S
6» 835-OA
o. o
A«07E-06
o, 0
c.o
Oe 0
0 e 0
0.0
5.32E-C5
0.0
0.0
SUB TOTAL l«16E-03 U61F-02 1.16E-03 3«A7E-03 1<,71E-Gl 1.B5E-02 1.84E-02 6.23E-05
PB-2 1 C
RA-225
RA—226
TH— 2 2 5
TH-2 3C
NP-2 3 7
NP— 2 39
PU—2 38
PU-2 39
PU-2 AC
PU—2 A 1
AM—2 4 1
AM- 2421*
AM— 2 4 3
CM—2 4 c
CM—2 A A
SUe TOTAL
TOTAL
0. 07F.-C3
9o 92F-04
Q «22E-C2
9« 9 0E-01
4.26E-01
4«17E 00
4 « 95E 01
3. 2 7F- 1 6
1•ACE C2
2.02E 02
2a85E-C1
2« 2 OE 01
1•92E- 16
3.52E 02
2.92E-16
G. 0
7«7 IF 02
7© 7 IE 02
a«68E-04
6« B3E-OA
6 » 8 4E- 0 A
6«62E-OA
A.0CE-04
2®17E-01
3«2 6F. 01
2.98F-19
9« 92E— 0 2
i.5e--oi
3a 3 1E-0 4
4» 33E- 0 1
3« 18E-20
6« 33E 00
1a46E- 1 9
0.0
3,59E 01
3.99E 01
7,75E-03
9.92E-04
8« 2 AE—0 2
9a90E-01
A.2 6E-0 1
2« A 1 E 00
5.76E 01
1.96E-16
7o5€E 01
1.C-9E 02
2e 71E-01
1« 2 AE 01
loOAE-lo
J e 92E 02
2.89E-1Q
0*0
5a 54E-02
6.23E-06
do 60E-0 4
A a12E— 0 1
7.03E-0 1
5 o 57E 0 1
3.72E 0 1
A e 86E-15
2o04E 03
2 a 95E 03
I e 97E 0 0
3 q OQE 0 2
2.67E- 1 5
A * 8QE 0 3
5<,26=."-l 7
0 o 0
1 a09E 00
6o03E-02
2« 07t—01
a»63E 00
19 A3E 00
3«66E 01
4o27E 01
3.85E-1 5
1 a 33E 03
1.93E 0 3
1® 0 IE—0 1
2«1OE 02
7.73E-16
3o 20E 03
4a 44E—16
0,0
5 o 8 2E— 0 1
6•8 IE—0 3
9® 6 7E—0 I
6a 27E 0 1
I « 5 BE 0 1
1*4 IE 02
7.99E 01
1 • 1 AE- 1 A
5o12E 0 3
7o38E 03
1« 1 6E 0 1
7e40E 02
6.8 IE-15
1 e 2 IE OA
9« 85E-17
OtO
5.82E-01
6.81E—03
9.67H-J1
6.27E 01
1.58E 0 1
1« 41E 02
7 a 97F. 01
la 1AE—1 A
5e12E 03
7. 38E 03
lei 6c 01
7 g 4 OE 02
6e81E-15
1 o 21H OA
9» 95E—17
Oe 0
I a 7SE-0 3
0.3
3.66E-0A
0« 0
5. A5F-0A
3® 76c-0 1
5 a 1 9E 0 1
la 1 IE-1 9
3a 0AE-02
6. 0AE—0 2
Oa 0
8a 93E-0 1
0.0
1t29E 0 1
3.3AE-20
0 B 0
4.51E 02
A a 51E 02
1 oC3E 04 6a 76E C3 2a S7E 04
I e 03E 04 6.76E 03 2.57E 04
2.57E OA
2.57E 04
6 * 5 IE 0 1
6 a o IE 0 1
0 7 IME SINCE START OF PFPUSITOPY OPERATIONSo
-------
Table M-2. (Continued)
A V E r A G17 ANNUAL LOCAL DUSE TO INCIVIDUAL. MANlLs IN ZONE 8, IN MILL I 3 iIM 3/ Y£ A 3
I 0 CO D 0 a' V F AR S H
K
NUCL IDt.
TOT F3CCY
G I
TRACT
GONADS
LIVER
LUNGS
MARROW
BONE
THYROID
1
C- 1 4
7,
57=:- 11
y« 54E- 1 n
2.54E.-1 1
4.(,lc-l 4
l«oet-ca
4.04E-10
4.P4E-10
4.01 E— 1 4
2
Sfi- 9C
0 »
n
0 .
0 .C
O.n
0.0
0, 0
o0 r
0. )
3
V- SO
0.
0
0.
0
0. 0
0. 0
OoO
Oo 0
0.0
0.0
4
IF-- 9 3
3.
07E — f e
O a
f 1 F- 0 5
3. 8 7£..CS
3.24E-0 5
6.01E-04
1. 4 7E-0 3
1e 47E—0 3
o« -y
5
No-9 3M
7.
C'4£- c 5
6 4
6 2E— 0 5
7.C4E-C5
2.BS£-0 4
B«79£—04
8.7eE-0 4
8.75H-04
0.0
e
TC- 95
2 i
C7=- r.fc
1 «
I BE-0 3
2.0 7E—-0 6
7 e6 dt— 06
1»o7t-02
2.03E-05
2.0 3H-3 5
c. 0
7
I - I 29
? 0
5 8E - C- c
5,
39r~-C 7
3» 54E.-C 6
9.72£-07
Io67E-G6
4» 2 2E-0 6
3. 92E—'--6
7.275-^6
8
C 5- 1 3 £
3 «
05F—0b
2 •
72E-05
3 s 0 ?.F—0 5
6 o 4 11—0 5
7899E~06
7.4 3E-0 5
7.4 3 0 5
0.0
9
CS-1 3 7
c.
n
O.
n
0. c
n ,0
9.0
0.0
f>. C
0.0
SUB TOTAL
t o
04
l'o
35E-03
I .4SE- 04
4 s 41E-04
1 .62E-02
2.45E-0 3
2 s 45 £ — 0 3
7 e27Z-06
1 C
PB—2 1 C
Vo
1 f E- C. 3
1 o
OCE-C 3
3.73E-C3
6.24E — 0 2
1 o 2 6c 0 0
6 o56E-01
5.55E-01
2. 06E-03
1 1
f> A" 2 'c. £
4,
e 3r - t 4
5o
93 c':— 0 4
4.e3E-04
3.07E-06
6.4-3E-C2
3.29E-0 3
3.29E—03
0. 1
1 2
R A— 2 26
b.
28F-0 2
7 a
6 7F-C-4
a,3 1b~C 2
7« 36E-04
2o59E->0l
9e74E-0I
9, 74F-0 1
1 . 0 ">Z —0 3
1 3
TH-229
1 •
0£E OC
c «
93F-04
1« 05E 0 0
4 o 3J£-0 I
9eJ9c 0 0
6 e 6 8E 01
6.68^ 01
Oo 0
1 4
TM-23C
3 e
7 eF.-c 1
5 i
?7t-r»4
3.75E-01
6. 13E—0 1
1.26E 00
1s 4fE 0 1
1.47E 01
4. 60E-0 4
1 5
NP-2 37
w »
771— CX
3»
c cz-c.z
3 a 3 4t.-C 1
7<,70E OC
s.ioe oc
1.9 EE C I
1.95= 0 1
5. 21E-02
11
NP-239
3 •
0 0E-0 3
1 .
9 8s.- 0 3
3 . 4 9E — 0 3
2o25fc£— 0 3
2«59E-03
4 « 8 4 E— 0 3
4.82E-03
3 s 14E-03
1 7
PU- 2 3 8
{ .
C
.
i;
o. 0
C .r
OoO
0.0
o.p
C.O
i a
PU-239
3.
73F CO
?o
1 Cci- 0 3
2. CI E 00
5 o 44-E 01
3.55£ 0 1
la 36E- 0 2
1.35E 02
6.10£-04
1 9
pu- 2<-r
4.
74 fc - C 3
3.
OJc-Pt
2, 56E-C-3
5.92E-0 2
4.52E-02
1 . 7 3E-0 1
1. 7 JE--01
1.42F—06
20
PU-2 4I
3.
aye - r b
2 o
9 7^-'"1 ft
3 a 3 2£—0 5
2a 41E-0 4
1.23E-C5
1 a 4 2E- 0 3
1. 4 2E--0 3
0. ">
2 1
AM-2 41
67T-03
2 3E— 0 5
1 .5 1 C-0 3
3,753-0 2
2.56E-02
8.99 E— 0 2
8. 99E7- 02
1.09E-04
2 2
A M— 2 4 2 M
C.
0
1-V
• o
0
/ .0
G. f
0.0
0.0
0.0
OaO
23
AM-243
2.
1 2F-02
3 o
UCE—C4
1 o 1 CF-C2
2«^5£~0 I
1.93t-C1
7. 3 3E-0 1
7,33~-01
7.32E— 04
24
CM— 2^2
0 o
0
0.
0
0.0
Oe C-
0.0
0.0
O.f-
0.0
2 £
CM-2 44
r.
r
0 •
C
0.0
C. 1
C.O
0. 0
OeO
0. 0
SUb TCTAl ?0ecF CC 3,79t- 0 2 3.8C-E. Of) 6.36E 01 5.29E 01 2. 39E 02 2.39E ^2 6sH5E-^2
TOTAL 00 3.93F-02 3.S9E 00 6«36I 01 5.29E 01 2.39E 02 2.39c 02 6.05~-02
*TI*p SINCE STAf-T UF F-EPUSITCfcY OPERATIONS.
-------
Table M-2. (Continued)
AVEPAGF ANNUAL LOCAL DOSE TO INDIVIDUAL. MAN1L, IN ZONE 8, IN MILLIREMS/YcAR
100C000. YEARS #
NLCL IDE
TOT BODY GI TRACT
GONADS
LIVER
LUNGS
MARROW
BONE
THYROID
1
2
3
£
7
e
9
C'li
SR- 9C
Y- 9 0
Z&- 53
NB—S 3M
TC- S9
1-1 29
CS-135
CS-I37
n.0
c« o
0. 0
7.'48E:-14
I93 6E- 13
3.6 3R- It
7. 17R— 15
7.2IE- 1 4
C.O
3.0
0.0
0*0
I . 1 6E-13
1 a 67E-13
0 7B— 1 3
1.5CE- 1 5
6* 4 IE— 14
0. 0
0.0
0.0
Og 0
7.48E-14
1.36E-13
3.6 3E-16
9o 86E—15
7.21 E— I 4
0.0
0,0
0.0
0« 0
1•59c-13
5c51 £- 1 3
1 •35E— 1 5
2« 71£— 1 5
I« 51£-13
0. C
0.0
000
Oe 0
1 •16E-12
1 o70E-l2
2.93E-12
4o 6 5E — I 5
lo89E-14
0.0
0.0
o*o
0.0
2. SEE-12
lo 6<;E-1 2
3«57E-15
1«17E-14
lo75E-l3
C. 0
0.0
0#0
2e 8 5E — 1 2
Io69E— i 2
3.57E-15
1.09^-14
1 e "^5 E— 1 3
0.0
0« 0
0.0
0. 0
0. 0
0.0
2.02E-14
Oa 0
0. 0
SUB TOTAL 2.90E-13 5.55F- 13 2.93E-13 806&E-13 5.82E-12 4o72E-12 4o73£-12 2.02E-14
1C
1 1
1 2
1 3
14
1 5
16
1 7
1 e
19
20
2 1
22
23
24
25
PB-2 1 P
F> A- 2 2 5
K A— 2 2 6
T H— 22 9
TH-2 3C
NP-2 37
NP-23?
PU-238
PU—2 39
PU-24C
PU— 24 1
AM— 2 4 1
AM-242V
AM-2 41
CM— 2 4 2
CM-2 44
5»89F-12
3.27E-12
5.32E-1 1
7,14E- 0?
2.41E-10
1 « 2 C E- C 9
lo86E- IE
C.O
2q2 6E-14
1o 36E-1e
6® 79E-37
6«47E— 35
C.C
le 28E-14
Oe 0
C o 0
6.45E- 1 3
4.0 2E- 1 2
4.92E- 13
4.6 9E- 1 2
2.1OE— 1 3
6 o 57E- 1 1
1« 2 3E—15
0.0
1 o 2 7E— 1 7
3c75E— 2 0
5® 7 7E—40
lo 27E-36
0.0
2.30E-16
0. 0
o .r
5* 65E—12
3.2 7E-12
5.3 3E-11
7.15E-09
2.41F-10
7.32E-10
2 o17E-15
O.C
1•22E—14
7e 4 5E—17
6.47E-37
3« 6CE—35
C.O
7.02E-15
0.0
0.0
4•01E— 1 1
2.C8E-14
5«C4E-13
2 e97£— 0 9
3.98E-1 0
1 « £9E— C 8
1» 40E—15
0. C
3e30E- 1 3
2®C1E-15
4o69E-3fc
9.09E-34
0. C
1 a 7BE-I 3
0. 0
0.0
boI3E-10
4.36E-10
1•54E-I 0
6a 23E—08
8.1OE—1C
la 12E-08
1.61E-15
0.0
2«15E—13
1.31E-15
2o40E-37
6.20E-34
0.0
le17E-13
C.O
Oe 0
4021E-1 0
2.22E-11
6o 25E- 1 C
4.53E-07
3 « 9 7 E— 0 9
4s 2EE-0 9
3 « 0 0 E— 1 5
0 a 0
Bo 2£E—13
5.03E-I5
2o7CE-35
2a I EE—3 3
0.0
4 e 4 2E— 1 3
0.0
OoO
4e 21E— 1 0
2.22E-11
6»25E—I 0
4.53E-07
8.97E—0 9
4e 2 3E—0 8
3 « 0 0 E— 1 5
0.0
do 26E— I 3
5.03E-15
?.e T6E—35
2«18E-33
0.0
4e43E-13
0.0
0« 0
la 33E-12
0 . 1
6.44E-13
0. 0
3. 0 an-13
1.14E-10
1» 9 5E—15
CeO
4 m9IE-IQ
4.12E-20
0« 0
2.63E-36
0.0
4 o73E-16
0.0
OoO
SUB TOTAL Be 71F— P9 7.58E-11 3.18E-09 2.03E-06 7.57E-08 5«0eE-07 5.06E-07 1.16E-10
TOTAL 8.71E—09 7.63E-1 1 8«1SE-09 2« 03E-0 e
ffTIME SINCE START OF REPOSITORY OPERATIONS*
7o 57E—08 5 a 0 CE— 0 7 5.06E-07 1.16E-10
-------
Table M~3. Average Annual Nonspecific Dose to Population,
MAN1N, In Man-rems/Year
ICOOc YEARS#
K nuclide tot bocy gi tract gonads liver lungs harrow bone thyroid
1
C-14
3 « 06F
CI
5g 2 oF
02
1 a 02E
01
3a 03E
0 1
3o 08E
0 1
1 S54E
02
la 54E
02
3,
¦)3E
0 &
2
SR- 90
2o 28E-
0 2
6 a54E—
02
2 • 2 BE—
02
OoO
0 © 0
la 1 4E
00
1« 14H
00
"0
0
3
Y- 9 0
1o44E-
08
5« 6 3E-
03
1a 44E—
03
0«0
Oe 0
59 39E-
07
5a 395-
0 7
r.
0
4
Zfc- 9 2
7o 2 1 E —
02
l « 61E
C 2
7 . 2 1 E-
'0 2
U 55E-
01
0«0
2 o 7 7E
00
2# 77E
00
Oa
0
5
NB-S/2M
Fa ltE-
0 I
1 »92E
0 3
3, J 6E-
01
3o 32f
00
CoO
1« 0 IE
0 1
ie 01E
01
Oo 0
e
TC- 9 9
2 » 4 ter
02
4« 775
04
2«46E
02
9a 1 5E
02
7*77 e
01
6 « 2 OE
02
6 » 2 3 E
02
0,
3
7
.1-1 29
1 « 49F-
0 2
2.0Ch-
02
1•49E-
C 2
5¦79E-
0 3
0 o 0
6o74E-
03
6o74E-
01
1 e
07E
01
e
CS-13S
1 . 3bF
02
1 . 67E
02
l o 38fc"
02
3« 1 IE
02
3» 5 4E
0 I
3« 36Z
02
3 e 3 6E
02
0,
0
9
CS-137
1 « 95C-
2»19C—
0 1
1.9 5E-
01
4.96E-
0 1
5 o 5 5G—0 2
3 0 6 6E-
0 1
3« 66E—
n 1
c-.
0
sue TCTAL
¦VolfE
02
5« 05E
04
3.95E
02
l a 26c.
03
1 o 4 4E
02
1. 1 2E
1 o 1
I 1
> 1
1 o 1 2E
03
4 9
1 4E
01
1 0
PB-2 1 C
j • \ e .E
0 0
2,2It-
02
I « 1 6E
0 3
1 ®07E
0 I
OoC
lg 14E
02
lo 14E
02
Oa
0
11
RA-225
1 o 231-
C 2
3, 1 4E
0 1
1 «32E
02
Be30E-
01
0,0
9o23E
02
9a 235
02
0.
0
I 2
RA-22C
St 86E.
02
t . 22E
00
£»« 86E
C 2
10 OQE-
C 1
OttO
6„ 97E
03
6o 97E
•13
0.
3
1 3
TH- 2 2 9
3« 7 9E
00
^ • 55E
00
3. 7°E
00
1 o63E
00
OoO
2o 49E
02
2»49S
02
0 a
0
1 4
TH-2 2f
7.70E-
0 1
S IE-
c 1
7.7CE-
01
1 « 58E
00
0 e 0
2s 79E
0 1
2. 79"
01
c.
0
1 5
NP-2 37
l» 3 e e
C2
1 a 39E
02
7« 30E
02
2 « 00 E
04
0 a C
4« 9EE
04
4o98E
04
09
3
1 t
NP-2 39
4.74E-
03
t, 3 0E
0 3
4„74E-
03
7•44E—
03
OeO
7c 2 4E-
0 2
7 e24E—
02
0<,
0
I 7
PU-238
1 . 31t
C 2
4, 84E
02
7a 93E
0 1
1 a 95E
0 3
0.0
4« 5 6E
03
4« 56E
0 3
Oa
0
i e
PU-2 29
4. 75E
0 2
1 « 4 9Z
03
2« 56E
02
6«92E
03
Oo 0
U 73E
04
1« 73E
04
0*
0
1 9
PU-2 4C
5a 34 E
C 2
1 o 15 6E
0 4
2 a Q9E
03
7« 81 c
04
0,0
1 a 95E
05
1 a 95£
05
•)
2C
PU-241
6 » 4 1 E.
OC
4, 33E
0 1
6»C9E
00
4 o 4 2E
0 1
0.0
2 $ 6 6E
0 2
2a 63E
02
Oa
0
21
AM—2 4 1
3« 63E
OE
3 a 3 4£
04
2.01E
05
5o 31 £
0 fc
0«0
la 27E
07
1 o 2"^
07
0.
0
22
AM-242M
I a 93E
C 3
6. C6E
0 1
I a 04E
03
2. 67£
04
0.0
6« 8 EE
04
o > 83"
04
0 a
0
23
AM-2 4 3
co 78E
05
2 a 55H
0 4
I a 5CE
05
4» C2E
06
OoO
9o 8 EE
0 6
9« fl5E
06
Oo
24
CM-24 2
2 « 8 9E
0 1
2 • OfcE
02
2 « 55E
01
4.26E
0 2
0„0
9a 1 5E
02
9 e 1 5£
02
0 a
0
2 5
CM— 2 4 4
3 • 62 E—
0 b
7.6CZ-
09
2 » 9 4 E—
•0 3
5 a 64c"
0 7
« 0
1, 2 2E-
06
la 22E-
06
0.
0
SUB TCTAL
6 * 5 ! FT
05
7 « 9 4F
04
3 o 5 6E
0 5
9 « 46£
Oc
1 1
1 O 1
1 • 1
1 O 1
1 1
1 1
2a 29E
07
2a 29E
07
0 a
0
TOT AL
6.51E
05
1 » 3 OF
05
3. 57E
05
9 o 46E
06
1.44E
02
2 o 2 9E
07
2a 2-TE
07
4a
1 4E
0 I
#TII*E SINCE START CF f
-------
Table M-3. (Continued)
AVT^AGE ANNUAL NONSPECIFIC DGSE TO POPULATION. CAMN• IN MANREMS/YEAfi
NJ
CD
U1
NUCLIDE
TCT BODY GI TRACT
ICOOOe YEARS#
GONADS LIVER
LUNGS
MAKROW
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
e
9
C~ 1 4
SR-90
Y-9 0
ZF-S2
NB—9 3 *
TC- 9?
1-1 29
C S—12 5
CS-I37
7® 6 OE CC.
o.c
Oa 0
3. 52F-C2
5«6BF-01
1 a Bit" 0Z
5. 60E-03
7*5eE Cl
C.C
1 • ICE
C aC
0« 0
7. 84E.
1 o 34E
J a 51E
7.52E-
9a 19E
0«0
02 2.52E 00
OaO
Oa 0
3.52E-C2
5 a 68E-0I
1.81E 02
5.60 fc— 0 3
7•58E 01
0,0
0 1
C 3
04
03
0 1
7 a6CE CO
OaO
0« 0
7» 55E-02
2 a 31 E 00
5o73E 02
2e 18E-0 3
1.71E 02
o«r»
7.60E 00
0,0
0*0
0.0
G«0
5,72E 01
OaO
1 a 94E 01
0.0
0 1
3a 79E
0 o 0
Oa 0
1 a 3SE
7a0 7E
4» 56E
2o 54E-03
1 a 85E 02
OaO
CO
o n
02
B3NE
3. 79E PI
OaO
0. 0
1.35E 00
7a07E 00
4© 56c. 02
2a 54E-03
la 355 02
OaO
THYROID
7a60E 00
4 ¦ 01E 00
SUB TOTAL 2a6EE 02 3a67E 04 2.6 0E 02 8a?3E 02 8.42E 01 6e67E 02 6*87E 02 1«16E 01
I 0
II
1 2
1 3
1 4
1 5
1 t
1 7
1 6
IS
20
21
22
23
24
2E
PB-2 1C
PA-22 5
RA-226
TH-229
TH-23C
NP-237
NP-2 3S
PU-238
PU-2JC
PU-2 40
PU-2 41
AM-24 1
AM-242^
AM—2 43
CM-242
CM—2 4 4
lalEF 01
e.34E 02
1 e 65E C4
7a 23F—0 I
la 72E-G1
2a 92F 01
2® 56E-04
7. 63E- 1 6
3a 2 5E 00
4® 73L 00
6o 70t-r»3
la £OH 02
1 e 4 6E.-1 5
28 5eF. 03
2o 36E- 17
0.0
2e2 4E-0 1
1s S6E 02
3.44E 0 1
1 a 06E 0 0
1 o45F.»0 1
2 o 98E 00
7 a 09E 0 1
2.82E- 1 7
1 a 03E 01
1 a 49E 01
4 a 5 36 **• 0 2
1 o 4 7E 01
4.60E-17
2a 3 7E C 2
1•70E—16
f) e 0
1 a 18E 01
8 a 3 4E 02
1 a 65E 0 4
7a 23E—01
1.72E-01
1 a 57E Cl
2a SSE—04
4 « 6 2 E— 1 8
1« 77E 00
2o 56E 00
6o 37E—0 3
3eB6E 01
7.86E-16
U39E 0 3
2a1OE-l7
OoC
la09E 02
5 a 2CE 0 0
3a06E CO
3 a10E-0 1
3.535-0 1
4o 29£ 0 2
4a 06E-0 4
1•14E- 1 to
4 a 79E 0 1
6 e 92E 01
4 ® 6 2c — 0 2
2o35E 0 3
2 « C2E— 1 4
3« 73E 04
3a 50E-16
O.C
0«0
0.0
OaO
OoO
OaO
OaO
OaO
0.0
Oe 0
OeO
OaO
OaO
0.0
0,0
OaO
0.0
03
03
05
0 1
00
01
SUB TCTfiL 2eC2t 04 5e63E 02 lo89E 04
TOTAL 2.04E 04 3o73E 04 la92E 04
0TIMF- SINCfc START CF RtPOSITORY OPERATIONS.
4 a 03E 04
4s 12E 04
0 a 0
6o42E 01
1« 16E
5a 77E
la S7E
4«7EE
6.22E
la 07E
3e 95E-03
2, 6CE-1 6
le 20E 02
lo73E 02
2s 80E-0 1
5a63E 03
5. 19E-14
9a 1 OE 04
7a52E-l 6
Oe 0
3.02E 05
3, 03E 05
03
03
05
01
00
03
-03
la 16E
5 e 77E
la 97E
4»75^
6s 22E
1 a 07 E
3© 95E-
2e 6 6E—1o
1 a 2 OE 02
1e 73E 02
2o30E-0l
5»63E 03
5a19E-14
9al4E 0 4
7a52E-16
OeO
3»02E 05
3a 035 05
Oa 0
OaO
Oe 0
Oa 0
0. 3
Oe 0
OaO
OaO
Oa 0
0. 0
OoO
Oa 0
0.0
OaO
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.1 6E 01
-------
Table M-3. (Continued)
A V f"F A GC ANNUAL NONSPECIFIC DOS.£ TU PUPULATIUN. f A N1 N » t^NREMS/YZAR
lOOOOCa YFARS*
K
NLCL IDt
TOT BO C Y
GI
TRACT
GONADS
L I VEfi
LUNGS
MARROW
~ ONE
THYROID
1
C- 14
3. 84F-
P5
o »
55c
10 2BE-0 5
3•84E-
0 5
3 . 8 4c—0 5
1•92E-
04
1.92E-
-n 4
3d 3 4E-0 5
2
s ft- 9 r.
c„r
C- o
0
n 0r.
CoC >
OoG
0. 0
Oo 0
0« 0
3
Y-90
Oe 0
Oo
0
o« 0
Oe 0
Oo 0
OoO
0. 0
0. 0
A
9 3
4. 75F-
03
1.
0 6F
C 1
4.75E-03
1.02E-
02
0.0
1 . 8 3E-
0 1
1.8 3E-
0 i
0.0
5
7a 66 E-
r-2
1 a
81 E
C2
7.cfcE-C2
3e11E~
0 1
0 0 0
9 «52E-
01
9o 52=:-
01
OaO
e
TC-5S
1,9 IE
0 1
3 s
7 IF
03
1.91E 01
7, 1 IE
0 1
60 04E
00
4 e 8 2E
0 1
4 » 82 E
0 !
OoO
7
1-1 29
7« ar-F-
0 4
1 o
0 5fc"
G 3
7.8PE-04
3 0 0 4c-
0 4
OoO
3 e53E-
'0 4
3e 53S-
04
5 a59E-01
e
C3-135
1 »
0 1
1«
26E
0 1
10 04E 01
2 « 34E
0 1
2e 66t
00
2g 53E
0 1
2« • j3E
0 1
Ob 0
9
CS-I37
c.r
0 0
rt
0,0
o.p
0 a 0
0.0
0. P
C. 0
SUB TOTAL
2»9£E
01
Jo
9 IF:
03
2.56E 01
9® 46E
0 1
8«7 0E
OD
7 0 4 6E
0 1
7.46E
01
5 059E — 01
1 0
PQ-2 10
1 »37E
01
2 «
6CQ-
0 1
1037E 01
1 0 26E
02
0 « 0
1« 34E
03
U34E
03
0. 0
1 1
RA-2 25
80 89fc
02
2 a
09F
02
8«89E 02
5 a 64E
00
OoO
6 s 1 6E
03
6a 1 6 £
03
0,0
1 2
PA-226
1. 92E
r 4
3.
99F
0 1
1.9 2E 0 4
3« 54E
CO
Oe 0
2o 26E
C 5
2s 29E
05
0. 0
1 2
TH-2 29
7«7P£-
^ 1
1 9
13F
0 0
7 „ 7 0 £- 0 1
3«30E—
0 1
OoO
So 06E
0 1
5e 06E
01
0» 0
1 A
TH—230
1 » S1 E—
C 1
1 O
2 86-
01
1 e 5 IE—01
3.ICE-
0 1
0.0
5.485
00
5o 48E
TO
0.0
1 5
NP—237
*-« 05 E
nr
4.
1 7F-
c 1
2« 1 7£ 00
5 a 94!£
c 1
OoO
1 0 4 8E
02
1« 48£
02
la T
1 6
NP-239
la 56E-
oe
4«
29F-
03
1•56E-08
2o 46c-
oa
0 « 0
2 « 3 9E—
0 7
2.0 39 = -
07
0,0
1 7
PU-23e
OoO
0 e
C
0.0
0 .0
0 a 0
0.0
0«0
0»0
i e
P U— 2 3 5
e. 75 E—
C 2
2.
7 5F —
01
4e 71E-P2
t « ?.7E
00
0*0
3 b 1 9F
00
3 e 19E
0 0
0. 0
1 9
PU—24 0
1o1 1 E-
C A
3.
50E-
c 4
6 9 C CE—0z>
1 »62£ —
03
0 a 0
4,05E-
03
4.T5E-
03
0. 0
20
PU-24 1
ti. 21 F-
C 7
5.
55£-
r>6
7 0 S1E—0 7
5«66E-
0 6
0 a 0
3o43E-
C 5
3o 43E-
0 5
0,0
2 1
AH—24 1
1« 9EET-
02
I D
79E>
OJ
1 0 08E-02
2 065E—
0 1
OoO
638 4E-
01
6.84E—
01
0. 0
22
AM-242W
C« 0
0 B
0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0 . 0
23
AM-242
1 o 5f t"-
CI
1 a
43E-
02
8a 41E-C.2
2o 26E
00
0 0 0
5e 5 2E
00
5o53E
00
0,0
24
CM-242
0. 0
0®
0
Oo 0
Oo 0
OoO
OoO
OoO
0.0
25
CM-2 44
0.0
0 0
0
0.0
o.c
OoO
0.0
OoO
0. 0
SUB TOTAL
2 o 0 ! E
0 4
2 a
5 1 if
02
2e0IE C4
1 0 99E
02
1 1
1
I
0 1
0 1
0 (
1
?.e 3 6E
05
2 b 36E
05
0. 0
TOTAL
20 0 IE
04
4«
1 6E
03
2.01E 04
2 9 94£
02
Be 7 Oc
00
2e 3€E
05
2036E
05
5s 59E-01
0TIME SINCE STAKT CH F*FPCSITORY OPERATIONS®
-------
Table M-3. (Continued)
AVERAGE ANNUAL NONSPECIFIC DOSE Tu population* wamn, in manrems/y^ar
KJ
oo
•vl
nuclide:
TOT. BCCY GI Tf> ACT
lOCCOOGo YEARS/*
GONADS LIVER
LUNGS
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
e
9
C- I a
Sfc- 9C
Y— 90
Zfc- c.2
NB-9 3M
TC-S9
1-1 29
CS-12£
CS-127
0.(
r*r
o« o
9..2C E-l 2
1o 48E-1C
Jo36E-09
2. 17E- 12
2«45E-Ce
0,0
o.c
c.'"1
0« 0
2. 05E-08
3o50E-0 7
6o 51 E- 07
2.9 2E-12
2.9 8E- 0 8
0 «0
0 a 0
0« 0
9.20E-12
1.4 8E-10
3o 36E-09
2•17E-12
2»45E-08
0.0
0*0
0, 0
00 0
I« 97E-1 1
6.(jIE-1 r
1 « 25E-0 e
8.45E- 1 3
5 « 52E— 0 B
0.0
0.0
0,0
Oo 0
0.0
0 « 0
lo06E-09
0 o 0
6.29E-09
0.0
MARRCW
0.0
n« 0
0. 0
3« 5 4E-10
le 84E-09
8 a 4 6 E— 0 Q
9# 8 3E-1 3
5 o 9 £ E— 0 8
0.0
Q0N5
0.0
0.0
Oo 0
3.54E-10
1« 34E—09
3.46E-09
9.8 35-1 3
5.9BE— 0 3
rt.O
THYROID
1 a 55E-09
SUB TOTAL 2*81E-0e 1.05F-06 2.81E-08 6«83E-0e 7«3SE-09 7«0EE~08 7„055-0 8 l„55E-09
PR—21C
PA—225
fcA- 2 2 6
T H— 2 2?>
TH-2 2C
NP-2 3 7
NP—239
PU— 2 3 5
PU-2 39
PU— 24C
PU-24 1
AM- 2* 1
AM- 242M
AM-243
CM— 2 42
CM—2 4 4
e. 76E-CC
C. 03c~0£
¦ 1 a 23F-T5
£« 22E-CS
9,72E—11
80 8 7£-"—C 9
9.72E-21
Oo 0
5o 30E- 1 t
3.22E-1 8
1« 35F-38
4. 55
l»46E-04
3# 43E— 07
3.52E—09
3e 25E-07
1.43E-19
0.0
lo 9 3E— 1 4
IolSE-16
5e 63E-37
1 o 59E—32
0.0
3s 34E-12
0.0
OoO
la 90E-14
Oo 0
0.0
0 a 0
Oo 0
0.0
Oo
0 .0
Oc 0
Oo 0
0. 0
0. 0
Oo 0
0.0
0« 0
OoO
OoO
le 55E-09
-------
APPENDIX N
SUMMARY TABLES OF DOSE CALCULATION OUTPUT
CASE 50
Summary tables at selected times are given in Tables N-l through
N-3 from output Section 6 as follows for leach incident release to
ground water beginning at 100 y, Case 50.
1. Average Annual Local Dose to Individual, MAN1L, in Zone 2,
mrem/y (Table N-l),
2. Average Annual Local Dose to Individual, MAN1L, in Zone 8,
mrem/y (Table N-2}.
3. Average Annual Nonspecific Dose to Population, MAN1N, man-rem/y
(Table N-3).
288
-------
Table N-l. Average Annual Local Dose to Individual, MAN1L,
in Zone 2, in Millirems/Year.
AVERAGE ANNUAL LDCAL DOSE to INDIVIDUAL. MAN1L. IK ZONE Z, IN MILL I REXS/YZAR
10000
• YEARS *
K
NUCLIDE
TCT BCDY
G1 TRACT
GONADS
LIVER
LUNGS
MARROW
DONE
THYROID
1
C-H
Oo 0
OeO
o»o
Os 0
0.0
0.0
0* 0
0. 0
z
SR-9C
0. 0
0.0
0*0
OoO
OoO
0.0
0* 0
0, Q
3
>-90
'o. 0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0. 0
0*0
0. 0
4
ZF-93
0o 0
Os 0
0*0
0«0
0«0
0*0
0. 0
0. 0
K
N8-9 3M
0. 0
0. 0
OoO
Oo 0
0.0
0.0
0.0
o • o
6
TC-99
S.63E-02
1.09E
01
5o63E-02
2»09E-01
1.70E-O2
lo42E~0I
1„42E-01
Os 0
7
1-1 29
2o47E-05
3o32E-
05
?.o4 7£-05
9.61E-06
8«37E-t 2
HolZE-0 5
1 a 12E—0 5
1o 77E-02
e
CS-13E
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
O.O
0.0
g
CS-137
Oo 0
OeO
0*0
OoO
OoO
o.o
OoO
0.0
SUB TLTAL
S.63E-02
1 .09E
01
S.63E-0 2
2.09E-01
1,7UE-02
1.4 2E-01
Io42E-01
1° 77E-02
00
10
PB-210
OoO
Oe 0
0.0
0»0
o.o
0.0
0.0
0*0
11
PA-22E
0.0
0*0
0.0
Oe 0
0. 0
Oe 0
Oo 0
0 a 0
12
RA-22fc
0* 0
0.0
OoO
OoO
0* 0
0*0
OoO
0, 0
12
TH-22S
0.0
0.0
0.0
0*0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1 4
TH-2 3 0
OoO
0.0
OoO
0« 0
0*0
Oo a
Oo 0
Oo 0
I £
NP-237
0. 0
0.0
0. 0
Oo 0
0*0
0* 0
OoO
Oo 0
16
Np—239
0.0
0.0
0.0
0*0
OoO
0*0
0*0
Oo 0
1 7
PU—236
0* 0
o.o
OoO
0»0
0«0
0« 0
0*0.
0
i e
PU—239
Oo 0
Oo 0
0. 0
0« 0
0.0
o.o
0.9
0.0
is
PU-240
Oo 0
0.0
OoO
OoO
0*0
Q«0
On 0
On 0
2C
PU-241
0* 0
Oo 0
OoO
0*0
Oc 0
Oo 0
OoO
OoO
21
AM-241
0.0
0.0
o.o
0.0
0.0
o.o
o .n
0 .0
22
AK-242N
Oa 0
OoO
OoO
Oa 0
OeO
Oo o
OoO
Oo 0
23
A M— 2 43
0. 0
0. 0
0 o 0
Oo 0
~ a 0
0*0
0*0
Oo 0
24
CM-242
0.0
0.0
0.0
OoO
OoO
OoO
OiO
0-> 0
2£
CM-244
Oa 0
OeO
Oo 0
0« 0
Oo ~
Oo 0
Oo 0
0* 0
SLID TOTAL
0.0
1
1
: i
i
i
o 1
0 1
i O 1
i
i o:
1 0
1 O 1
1 1
1 1
1
I
1 1
0® o
OoO
0« 0
Oo 0
Oo 0
TOTAL
5.63E-02
1.09L 01
5.63E-02
2.09^-0 1
1 * 785-02
1 ,4 25-01
1 .42E-01
1 .71
WTIME SINCE START of REPOSITORY OPERATIONS#
-------
Table N-l. (Continued)
AVER AGE ANNUAL LOCAL DCJSE TO INDIVIDUAL, MA NIL* IN iCNE 2. IN M ILLI RF.'JI 3 / Y "AQ
lOOOOOo YEA^S*
——
K
NUCLIDE
TCT UCDV
iSI TPACT
gonads
LIVCR
LUNGS
MARHCW
~ 0N3
TKI'ROID
1
C- 14
2.B7E-I1
4o69E-lO
9 o 5 3E— 1 2
2oe7£-l 1
2c67E-l1
1o 4 ^E—1 0
lo 43^-10
2 o 8 7E —1 1
2
sp-sc
0* 0
Oc 0
Oo 0
OoO
OoO
0 e 0
OnO
Oo 0
3
Y-9 0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0»0
0.0
4
Zf-93
0* 0
o»o
Oa 0
v> o 0
OoO
o-» o
Oc 0
Oo 0
e
NB~93M
0* 0
0. 0
0« 0
0, 0
OoO
Oo 0
OoO
Oo 0
e
TC- 99
7. 13E-02
i -3en oi
7.13E-02
2.65£-0 1
2c25E-02
loQOE-O*
l'sSOH-ai
OoO
7
1-1 29
4« 095-05
5e5QE-05
4 « 09E—0 5
t * 59 = — 0 5
lo44£-t\
XoS^-OS
lo 8f5:I-05
2* 93c-02
e
CS-125
0, 0
Oe 0
0. 0
3o0
0.0
0.0
0«o
0.0
9
CS-137
0.0
0C0
0.0
OoO
0*0
Oa 0
Oo 0
On 0
SUB TCTAL
7.13H-02
1.33E 01
7.13E-02
2.CSH-01
2.25E-02
1.80S-0I
1 .00=1-01
2.93E-02
1C
P3-210
0„ 0
0« 0
o»o
0» 0
Oo 0
OoO
o-> o
OoO
11
fiA-226
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Oo 0
Oa 0
Oo o
o»o
1 2
RA-22C-
0. 0
~ • 0
Oe 0
0*0
OoO
Oo 0
OoO
Oo 0
1 2
TH-229
0« 0
Oo 0
Oc 0
J. 0
0 *0
o.o
0.0
0.0
1 4
TH-230
0« 0
0,0
Oo 0
0«0
Oc 0
Oa 0
Oo 0
Oo 0
1 S
NP-237
Oo 0
0*0
Oo 0
OoO
Oe 0
OoO
Oo 0
Jo Q
z t
NP-2 39
0. 0
0,0
0.0
0- 0
0*0
0*0
0.0
o.o
1 7
PU-238
0* 0
Oo 0
Oo 0
0*0
OoO
OoO
%0
Ort o
l e
PU-2 3 9
0« 0
Co 0
Oo 0
Oo 0
o«o
Oo 0
OoO
0» 0
19
PU-2 40
0.0
0 .0
0.0
OoO
Oo 0
OoO
0, 0
0 o 0
20
PU-24I
Co 0
0*0
Oo 0
o«o
0.0
OoO
Oo 0
0® 0
21
A M— 2 4 1
Oc 0
Oc 0
Oo 0
o.o
0 t. o
0.0
0.0
0.0
22
AM-24 2H
Oc 0
0*0
0 n 0
Oo 0
Oa 0
Oo 0
Oo 0
Oo 0
22
AM-243
Oc 0
Oo 0
Oo 0
Oo 0
Oe 0
Oa 0
OoO
0o0
24
CM-242
0.0
D»0
0*0
0*0
0*0
0-0
0.0
0.0
2£
CM-244
OeO
OoO
0 o 0
Oo 0
OoO
Oo 0
Oo 0
Oo 0
SUB TCTAL
0.0
0 .0
0.0
OoO
Oo 0
Oo 0
Oo 0
Oo 0
TOTAL
7» I 2 E>02
lo38E 01
7a13C-0 2
2 .65ft-0 1
2.2 SE — 0 ?
1 .0 OE—0S
1 .00^-01
2.93^-02
rfTI ME SINCE START of fcEPDSITORY CPE NAT 2 ON So
-------
Table N-l. (Continued)
AVERAGE ANNUAL LOCAL OOSE TO INDIVIDUAL. MAN1L. Il\ ZGNE 2. IN MILLIREHS/YEAR
1000000a YEA3S#
KJ
VO
K
NUCLIDE
TOT BCDY
CI TF ACT
GONADS
LIVER
LONGS
MARROW
BONE
THYROID
I
C— 1 4
0 . D
0«0
0.0
0.0
OoO
OoO
OoO
Oa 0
2
SR-50
0* 0
OoO
OoO
OoO
OoO
0.0
OoO
Oo 0
3
Y-90
OoO
0* 0
0* 0
0*0
0*0
0.0
0.0
0.0
4
Zf—93
0*0
0*0
OoO
OoO
0* 0
0 a 0
Oo 0
0* 0
5
N0-Q3M
0* 0
Oo 0
0.0
OoO
Oo 0
0o0
0*0
Oo 0
e
T C— 95
1 • 51E— 0 2
2 «92E-01
1 •51E-03
5•61E- 0 3
4 m766 — 0 4
3 *BOE—-0 3
3.aoE-03
0*0
7
1-1 29
lo 04E-05
1s 4QE —0 5
i.04E-05
4o06E-06
3o6dE-l2
4« 7££— 06
4o7*E-06
7o 47E-03
e
CS-1 3E
0*0
Oo 0
OpO
Oo 0
OoO
0o0
OoO
Oo 0
s
CS-137
0.0
0*0
0.0
0.0
OoO
o«o
OoO
Oo 0
SUtJ TCTAL
1* 52t~C2
2.52E-01
la5 2H—0 3
5.61H-03
4.76E-04
3.B0H-02
3.80^-03
7 . V7-E-0 3
IC PB-21C
0, 0
0« 0
0*0
0»0
0*0
0o0
OeO
Oo 3
1 1
RA-22S
0,0
~ •0
0,0
0 . 0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
12
RA-2£t
Oa 0
GoO
0*0
Oo 0
OoO
0« 0
Oo ~
Oo 0
12
Th—2 25
0*0
Oc 0
a«o
OoO
0«0
OoO
Oo 0
0-9 0
14
TH-23C
0.0
0*0
OoO
OoO
OoO
o0o
0*0
Oo 0
1 £
NP-237
6.63E 02
6»77E 01
3a 56E 02
ye73c 03
2c 05E-05
2o4 2E 0 4
2a*lE 04
3o B2E-05
16
NP-239
2.43E-0S
5.47E-04
3.67E-09
4•21E-0 9
1*24E-0V
2 «2eE-oa
3.2<3^-0a
1 .51E-09
17
PU-2 3 e
Oo 0
0 a 0
0*0
OeO
Oo 0
Oo o
Oo 0
Oo 0
ie
PU-235
0.0
0. 0
0.0
OoO
OoO
0o0
Oo 0
Oo 0
19
PU-24C
0.0
0.0
0*0
0*0
0. 0
o.o
.0 .0
O.O
20
PU-2 41
Oo 0
OoO
OoO
OoO
Oc 0
OoO
Oo 0
0* 0
21
AM —2 41
0*0
0* 0
OoO
Oo 0
Or 0
o«o
0* 0
OoO
22
AM-242M
0.0
0.0
0 .0
OoO
OoO
0« 0
0,0
Oa 0
23
AM —2 42
0* 0
OoO
Oo 0
OoO
OoO
o»o
0*0
Oo 0
24
CM— 2 4 2
Go 0
Oo 0
OoO
0. 0
0.0
o.o
0.0
0 i 0
2?
CM—244
OoO
0«0
OoO
OoO
Oc a
OoO
On 0
Oo 0
SUb Tt-TAL 6.63F 02 6.77E 01 3.56E 02 9.73E 03 2.85E.-05 2.42E 0 4 2.43c 04 3.02E-05
TCTAL 6«63E 02 6.0OE 01 3.56E 02
BTIHF SINCE START CF DEPOSITORY OPF.HATIONS.
9o 73— 03 5.05E-04 2043E 04
1.433 04 7.50E-03
-------
Table N-2. Average Annual Local Dose to Individual,
MAN1L, in Zone 8, in Millirems/Year
AVERAGE .
ANMUAL local
DOSE. TO
INDIV I DU AL
• MAN*L *
IN ZCNE Q.
IN MlLLlRf-
MS/YTAR
10000
o YEARS*
K
NUCLIDE
TUT B COY
lil TKACT 6DNAOS
LJ V^f-
LUNGS
MAf-RGw
~ ONE
TrlYPOlD
1
C- I 4
Od 0
Om 0
0 o 0
Oo 0
Oc 0
Oo 0
0.0
0.0
2
SP-90
0,0
Oo C
Oo 0
Oo 0
OoO
Oo 0
Oe 0
0-> 0
Y- SO
n« o
Oa 0
Oo 0
Oo 0
OoO
Oo 0
0* 0
OoO
4
0. 0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
c
Nd-ylf
Of o
Oo 0
QdO
Oo 0
O0 0
Oo 0
OoO
Oo 0
6
Tt-09
1.3*E-oe
'¦ia 54P-06
1 • 3 JE —03
*o33^-08
4 01*£-09
3o3lE-08
3o31E-0tl
OoO
7
1-1 29
5-U2c- 12
7.P3E- 12
5.«3£-12
2.27E-12
6.29E.-1 7
2c64E-12
2o64E-l2
4-o 1 7£-09
e
cs-iae
0« 0
Oo 0
0« 0
0 o 0
Oo 0
Oo 0
OoO
Oo 0
9
cs-lj7
0 o 0
Oo 0
Oo 0
0„ 0
OoO 0*0
0.0
0. 0
5UB TCTAL
it 31 F-Od
2c S4F-06
l«31E-08
4 9 fltJZ-* 0 8
4ol4E-0S 3 0 31E—0 6
3o31=-0d
4«s 1 7C-09
1 o
py-*21 o
Oe 0
0*0
Oa 0
0 0 0
Oo 0
Oo 0
Oo 0
0C 0
11
RA-£?S
0*0
Oo 0
Oo 0
Oo 0
Oo 0
OoO
OoO
Oo 0
1 2
PA-22t
0.0
0*0
0.0
0.0
Oe 0
0»0
Oo 0
0 3 0
1 2
TH-22C
Oc 0
Oo 0
Oo 0
OoO
Oc 0
04 0
OoO
Oo 0
1 4
TH-i. JO
Oo D
Oo 0
0» 0
0 0 0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1 S
NP-2 3 7
Oc 0
0^0
Oo 0
Oo 0
0*0
Oo 0
Oo 0
Oo 0
J t
NP-231;
0. 0
Oo 0
Oo 0
OoO
OoO
OoO
Oo 0
Oo 0
1 7
PU-238
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1 £
PU-2 3$
0« 0
OoO
0,0
Oo 0
OoO
Oo 0
Oo 0
Oo 0
IS
PU-2 4C
Oo 0
0»0
0, 0
OoO
OoO
OoO
OoO
Oo 0
20
PU-2 4 I
0 » 0
0 - 0
0*0
0.0
OoO
0.0
Oa 0
0 0 0
21
A M ^ 4 I
0« 0
0<1 0
Oo 0
Oo 0
Oo 0
OoO
o0 0
Oo 0
2 2
AV-242W
O0 0
0. 0
0 o 0
OoO
0.0
0 . 0
0.0
0.0
23
AM-2 43
Or 0
Oo 0
Oo 0
OoO
Oo 0
On 0
0, 0
Oo 0
24
CM-2 4?
o« a
G«0
Oo 0
OoO
OoO
Oo 0
OoO
0o 0
? f;
CM-?. 4 4
0.0
0,0
0 . 0
0.0
0. 0
0.0
O.O
0.0
£(JU TCTAL
0.0
Oc 0
0*0
OoO
Oc 0
OoO
Oo 0
Oo 0
TOTAL
1 ft 31E-Ofcj
2« 54-t~06
um e-oa
4 0 ba£~ OtJ
4.1 4E-05
?.„3 i,E— 0 B
IcMZ-03
4ol 7" — 0 CJ
»TIMF. SINCE STAM CF F-EPCSITCRY OPE RAT I DNS o
-------
Table N-2. (Continued)
to
u>
u>
AVERAGE ANNUAL
LOCAL DOSE TO
IN CIV I DUAL
. MA NIL*
IN ZOtvE a.
IN millihtms/year
lOOOOOo YEAR S »
K
NUCLIDE
TCT 8C0V
GI TRACT
GONADS
LIVER
lungs
marrow
BGN? THYROID
1
C-l 4
0« 0
0. 0
OaO
0.0
Oa 0
1
|
O
0
o
1
OoO OoO
2
SP-90
0. 0
0 .0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0*0
090 OoO
3
Y-,9 0
0.0
0*0
OaO
Oo 0
OaO
0
-------
Table N-2. (Continued)
AVERAGE ANNUAL LOCAL DOSE TO INC1V10UAL. MA NIL. IN ZONE 0. IN MILLI3EMS/VSA3
1000000. YEARS'*
— — -
K
NUCLtoe
TOT BLi2Y
G] TRACT
UONADS
LIVER
LUNGS
M AKRC'W
HON'-
THYROID
1
C-14
0.0
OoO
OoO
OoO
0.0
Oo 0
0,0
0 a a
2
SR-SC
0*0
0.0
0.0
0. 0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2
¥-90
0.0
0.0
0.0
0 <5 0
0.0
OoO
Oo 0
Oo 0
4
2R-92
Oe 0
Oe 0
0.0
o.o
0.0
Oe 0
0,0
0, 0
5
NB-9 3M
0,0
0 .0
0 .0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0. 0
6
TC-S5
b. 92 £—04
1e 73F — 0 J
8.92E-04
3b325-03
2.90E-04
2o 3ZZ-33
Oo 0
7
I-J 25
8«,3SE-06
I.IOE-OS
S»4ie-06
3e25fc-Q6
O.04E-08
3oS6E-06
3r 96~-06
5.06E-03
8
CS-135
0.0
0 .0
OoO
OoO
Oe"
Oo 0
OoO
0« 0
S
CS-l37
0.0
Od 0
0*0
Oo 0
Oe 0
0.0
Oo 0
Oo 0
SUB TOTAL
9o 01E-0«
1.73E-01
9o 0 1E—0 4
3o32c-0i
2ovOE—04
2.2EE-02
2o23E-03
SoB6E-03
1 0
PB-21C
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
D.O
0.0
OoO
Oo 0
11
RA-22E
0. 0
0. 0
0,0
OoO
OoO
Oo 0
Oo 0
Oo 0
1 2
RA-226
0.0
0.0
0. Q
Oe 0
0.0
OoO
o.o
0.0
13
TH-E29
0.0
0. 0
0 e 0
Q„0
OoO
0.0
OoO
Oo 0
1 4
JH-2 3 0
0. 0
OoO
0® 0
OoO
OeO
Oo 0
•3,0
0. 0
1 £
MP-2 37
9. 7 *»f- — k V
9.99E-30
S.2EE-Z0
0. 0
0.0
Oo 0
Oa 0
2 C
PU-2«1
OoO
OoO
Oo 0
Oo 0
OoO
0.0
o.o
0.3
21
AM-241
0.0
o. o
OoO
Oo 0
0.0
Oo 0
0* 0
Oo 0
2 Z
AM-2«2M
Do 0
n„ o
OoO
On 0
0. 0
0„0
0,0
0o o
23
AM-243
Do 0
o.o
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
24
CM-2 42
Oe 0
OoO
OoO
OoO
OoO
0, 0
OoO
Oo a
25
CM-244
0. 0
Oo 0
0. 0
OeO
OoO
Oa 0
OoO
Oo 0
SUB TOTAL
9«7%E-29
9o99F;-30
S.25E-29
1 <.44^-2 7
4o1y£—36
3a58E-27
!c 335-^ 7
5«61S-36
TOTAL
9a01E-Ofi
1*735-01
90o;e-o4
3.32E-03
2.90E-04
2a 25E-0 2
2i25E-03
5.862-03
•TIME SINCE START CP FEPOSITCRY OPERATIONS.
-------
Table N-3. Average Annual Nonspecific Dose to Population,
MAN1N, in Man-rems/Y ear
AVERAGE ANNUAL NONSPECIFIC DOSE TO POPULATICN, *AN1N» IN VANRZMS/YcAR
1 000 Oo YEARS/?
to
\D
Ul
K
NUCLIDE
TOT BCDV
GI TRACT
GONADS
LIVER
LUNGS
MARROW
BOt-iE
thyroid
1
C-14
0*0
0 o C
o 1
•
o
OoO
000
On 0
Oo 0
Oo 0
2
• SR-90
0. 0
OoO
0*0
Oo 0
0* 0
OoO
OoO
Oe 0
3
V—9 0
0.0
0.0
0*0
0.0
0.0
o
•
o
0.0
o
•
o
4
ZP-93
0* 0
OoO
OoO
OoO
0o o
OoO
OoO
0. 0
c
NS-9 3M
0.0
OoO
OeO
Oo 0
0« 0
0« 0
09 0
3o 0
6
TC-S9
1.33E
02
2.58E
04
1.33E 02
4 . 94 E
0 Z
4o20E
01
3o 25E
02
3« 3^E
02
0. 0
7
1-1 29
4.23E-
1 OA
5.68E-
04
4 «2 3E—0 4
1o 64E-
04
OoO
1«91E-
¦04
lo9*E-
~ 4
3,03E-01
8
cs-l35
0*0 .
Oe 0
0.0
0» 0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
9
CS-137
0.0
0.0
0.0
OoO
0o0
On 0
OoO
0. 0
SUA TCTAL
1 .33E
03
2o58E
04
1«33E 02
4 .94E
02
4.20E
01
3.35E
0 2
3.35E
02
3.0 3E-01
1 0
pa-2ic
0e 0
Oo 0
0« 0
0« 0
0, 0
OoO
0*0
Oo 0
11
RA-225
0. 0
0*0
0.0
0.0
0o 0
OoO
OoO
Oo Q
12
RA-22€
0« 0
OoO
OoO
Oo 0
Oo 0
0)0
OoO
Oo 0
1 3
TH-229
o.o
Oo 0
0*0
0*0
0,0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1 «
TH-2JC
0.0
Oe 0
OoO
0S 0
0t0
Oo 0
On 0
0. 0
i:
NP-2 3 7
0. 0
OoO
0«0
OoO
0*0
Oo 0
OoO
o. o
it
NP-2 3S
0. 0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.3
17
PU~2 3e
0. 0
OoO
OoO
OoO
0« 0
Oo 0
OoO
0. 0
l e
PU-2 7 5
0.0
0.0
OoO
0.0
0«0
OoO
OoO
0. 0
19
PU-2 4T
0.0
0 .0
o.o
0.0
0«0
OoO
OoO
Oo 0
20
PU—241
0.0
OoO
OoO
OoO
0D0
Oo 0
Oo 0
Oo 0
21
AM—2 41
Oo 0
00 0
OoO
Oo 0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
22
AM-242V
Oe 0
0.0
OoO
0« 0
OoO
OoO
On 0
0. 0
23
AM-243
0. 0
0# 0
0*0
Oo 0
0o0
OoO
Oo 0
0. 0
24
CM-242
0.0
0.0
0*0
0.0
0.0
OoO
0.0
0.0
2 £
CM—2 4 4
0.0
0®0
OoO
OoO
0o0
Oo 0
0*0
0« 0
SUB TOTAL
1
1 o
! o
1
1
o I
6 j
O 1
1
1
0.0
0.0
OoO
Oo 0
OeO
0„ 0
TOTAL
1.33E
02
2o 58F
04
lo33E 02
4094E
02
4.20E
ot
3.356
02
3.3GE
02
3.03^-0 1
——
I .
—— .
tf 11ME SINCE START OF REPOSITORY GPERATlONSo
-------
Table N-3. (Continued)
AVERAGE annual NCNSPECIFIC DOSS TO POPULATION, NAM N, IS VANaE'43/YIAR
J 00000* YEARS*
K
NUCL IDE
TCT OrDY
GI TRACT GUNAOS
LIVER
LUNGS
HAPRG#
HONS
THYR01D
1
O 1 4
e.25E-P9
B.SAt-OS 1.74E-09
5.25E-09
5o25£-05
2q&2E-0 R
2o62E-0'l
50 25^-09
2
SR- 9C
Oe 0
0*0
Oe 0
OoC
Oo 0
Oc 0
On 0
On 0
T
Y-90
Oc 0
0. 0
0* 0
OoO
0*0
0 ..0
0.0
0.0
4
2P-92
0e 0
0 o 0
OoO
0. 0
Oo 0
050
0,0
0 « 0
5
ND-9 3M
Oc 0
Go 0
0. 0
0*0
OoO
Oo 0
OaO
Oo 0
6
TC- 99
£•1S£ 0 Z
A,23r 04 2.1 8E 02
3.112 0 2
t^.dsJe oi
5.45E 02
5.49" 02
o.o
7
1-1 2^
14E-03
8e26C-03 6ol*E-03
2c39E-03
0«0
2o 76E-0 3
2o 7^r-03
<**40H 00
£
C 5—12*
Oc G
Oo 0
Oe 0
Oe 0
OoO
OoO
Oc 0
3ft 0
9
CS-137
0*0
0*0
0.0
0 . 0
Oo o
0« 0
Oc 0
0o 0
SUB TCTAL 2«16E 02 »t23i; OA 2c 1 BE 02 BollE 02 6.dyE 01 5.A9E 02 5.02 4.40E 00
1 c
PB-21C
Oe 0
Oe 0
Oe 0
OoO
OoO
o
0
o
0*0
Oo 0
1 1
R A— 2 2 £
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0 .C
0.0
1 2
PA-2 2C
Oe 0
OoO
OoO
OoO
OoO
OoO
Oc 0
0o 0
1 3
TH— 2 2 9
Oo 0
Oo 0
Oe 0
Oo 0
Oe 0
OftO
OoO
0« 0
1 <*
TH-23 C
0.0
0.0
0.0
0 e 0
OoO
OoO
OoO
Oo 0
1 t
NP-237
Oo 0
OoO
OoO
0« 0
Oo 0
Oo 0
OrtO
0o 0
l e
NP-239
Od 0
Oe 0
Oo 0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0 .0
0.0
1 7
PU-238
Oo 0
OoO
OoO
OoO
0* 0
Oo 0
OoO
0 TT 0
1 S
PU-23S
o« o
Oc 0
OoO
OoO
OoO
Oo 0
OnO
Oo 0
19
PU-2A0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2 C
PU-241
Oe 0
Or. 0
OoO
OoO
OoO
Oo o
Oc 0
Oo T
21
AM— 2 41
O0 0
Oc 0
OoO
Oo 0
OoO
Oo 0
OtO
Oft 3
22
AM-242M
0. 0
0.0
0.0
OoO
0« 0
On 0
OoO
Oo 0
22
AM —243
Oc 0
OoO
0*0
OoO
Ov 0
0, 0
Oo 0
Oo o'
24
CM-2 4 2
0 8 0
Oo 0
OoO
0.0
U .0
0.0
0.0
0.0
25
CH-2M
0D o
OoO
Oe 0
Oo 0
0« 0
Oo 0
Oo 0
Oo 0
SUB TCTAL
0 .0
0 .0
0.0
0 > 0
0.0
0.0
0 .0
0.0
TOTAL
2. 1 he
02 4e22E 04
2a 1 Oc 0 2
9o 1 lc 0 2
OztiVZ 01
So (* QE 0 2
4.4
——
—.
.
*time since
START cf
RE POSI TCP Y
0PPR*7]ONSo
-------
Table N-3. (Continued)
average annual nonspecific oo££ to population. canin. In manhems/year
t 00000O. YEARS*
NUCLIDE
TOT BCDY GI Tf> ACT
GONADS
LIVER
LUNGS
MARROW
DONE
TH YREJ1D
K)
vO
--—
—
______
—
——-— —
——
—
1
C-14
0.0
o
•
o
0-0
OoO
0.0
0.0
0 .0
o. o
2
Sf.-<>0
0. 0
0*0
0«0
OoO
o*o
Oo 0
Oo 0
Oe 0
V-SC
Oo 0
0* D
0. 0
Oo 0
0* o
Og O
Oo 0
Oo 0
4
ZK-S3
0. D
0 *0
0.0
0*0
Oo 0
OeO
OoO
Oo 0
c
NB-V.3M
0. 0
OoO
0*0
Oo 0
OoO
0»0
Oo 0
Oo 0
6
TC-59
5.13E
00
9o95E 0£
5a 1 -E 00
1 o-9XE
01
1.62E 00 1« 29E
0 1
1 .29E
01
0. 0
7
1-1 29
2.91 E-
•03
2o91E-03
2a 91E —0 3
Id13E-
02
0« 0
1 o 32E-
¦03
l#32e-03
2o 03E
OO
e
CS-1 35
0. 0
0« 0
0*0
o.o
0*0
0 o 0
Oo 0
Oo 0
5
CS-137
0.0
0.0
0*0
0 v 0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Ob 0
SUB TOTAL
S.13E
00
9o95£ 02
5«12E GO
1 • 91=.
01
lfl62t 00 1 • 29E
a i
lo2?E
0 1
2. OBE
00
1 0
PB-21C
oa o
0« 0
0.0
OoO
0«0 0*0
OoO
0. 0
1 1
RA-22E
0. 0
0* 0
0.0
0* 0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1 2
KA-22t
0.0
OoO
OoO
0. o
Oo 0
0* 0
0* 0
Oo 0
I 2
TH-22S
0. 0
Oo 0
0«C
0*0
0*0
0*0
Oo 0
Oo a
1 4
TH-230
0. 0
0.0
0.0
0*0
0.0
0.0
OoO
OoO
in
NP-237
7. B3E
02
7oS9?r 01
4.20E 02
lo 15E
04
OoO
2o B6E
0 4
2«a6E
04
Oo o
it
Np—235
2.35E-
09
Oo 46E— 04
2o35E-G9
Jo 70 = -
09
0*0
3©eoE-oe
3. 6)E-
-Od
0.0
17
PU~23t
0.0
0*0
Oe 0
0*0
Oo 0
Oo 0
D-, 0
Oo 0
ie
PU-2 3S
0e 0
Oo 0
0*0
OeO
OoO
OoO
0« 0
Oo 0
\<)
PU-240
0. 0
Oe 0
0*0
0 . 0
0.0
0.0
0 .0
0.0
2 C
PU—241
0. 0
OoO
0. 0
o«o
0*0
Oo 0
Oa 0
Oo 0
21
*M-2 41
0. 0
0®0
Oo 0
0* 0
0*0
OoO
OoO
Oo 0
22
AM-242M
0. 0
0*0
0.0
0*0
OoO
0.0
OoO
Oo 0
23
AM —2 43
0. 0
Oo 0
Oo 0
Oo 0
0* 0
Oo 0
Oo 0
00 0
24
CM-2<.2
0.0
OoO
0*0
Oo 0
OoO
OoO
0.0
0. 0
2£
CM—2 AA
0. 0
OoO
OeO
0*0
OoO 0*0
0« o
Oo 0
SUB TCTAL
7„ A3E
02
7.99E 01
4.20E 02
1 .155
04
0.0 2.865
04
2.B6E
04
0.0
TOTAL
7. auE
0?
UOdf 03
4»25£ 02
lol5E
04
1o 62E 00 2oS7E
0 <*
2o 87E
04
2o 06 =
00
_
..—
• TIME SI NC £ START LF FEPOSITCRY OPERATIONS.
-------
Intentionally Blank Page
298
-------
PART 2
OTHER APPLICATIONS OF MODEL
Chapter 9, Application to Repository Operations
Chapter 10. Application to Ground Surface Storage
Chapter 11. Preliminary Demonstration for Another
Geologic Setting
Chapter 12. Applications to Other Radioactive and
Nonradioactive Hazardous Materials
Appendices for Part 2; 0 through Q
299
-------
Intentionally Blank Page
300
-------
Chapter 9
APPLICATION TO REPOSITORY OPERATIONS
Assessment of a radioactive waste repository is best done by examin-
ing two phases: repository operations and terminal storage. The latter
represents the long term period following accumulation of the total
inventory, backfilling and sealing the repository. This phase can also
be divided into near and far terms if needed. Implementation of AMRAW
for terminal storage is presented in detail in Part 1 of this volume. Reposi-
tory operations represents the period during which the repository is open
and receiving waste. A preliminary demonstration of AMRAW to this phase
is presented in this chapter.
The projection of accumulated high-level waste from reprocessing
assumed for the reference repository is given in Table 6-2 in Part 1.
This corresponds to an assumed repository operations period of 30 y.
During this period, excavations are extended as required to accommodate
waste receipts. Surface operations include receival, brief interim
storage, and associated handling. Underground operations include lower-
ing canisters via a mine hoist, transport through mine drifts, and em-
placement of canisters in drilled holes in the formation. There may or
may not be progressive backfill depending upon retrievability require-
ments. Ventilation air is circulated through Eones of the mine (repository)
and discharged through banks of HEPA filters at the surface. During these
operations, corrective action may be taken to mitigate consequences of
accidents or natural disruptive events. Analysis of repository opera-
tions considers release scenarios which apply only during the operations
time period (here assumed to be 30 y), but evaluates environmental con-
sequences during and subsequent to the operations period.
A complete assessment of the repository operations phase requires
design details for the repository, including facilities, equipment and
operating procedures. The application of AMRAW presented here is a
preliminary demonstration and serves only to illustrate methods of data
preparation and the form of output obtained.
301
-------
A. DATA FOR AM RAW INPUi
The major difference in input data for repository operations from
that for terminal storage is the input used by the Release Model (Sub-
routine FAULT). The short 30 y time period for releases during this
phase precludes consideration of very low probability events such as
volcanism and meteorite impact. Site selection studies eliminates vol-
canism as a possibility until well after the operations phase. In the
absence of violent natural occurrences, any release directly to land
surface is expected to involve only the geographic zone surrounding the
repository (Zone 1); accordingly, the zone allotment factor for dispersior
directly to land surface (ZONALO) is input as 1.0 for Zone 1 and zero
for the other zones. As described later, because of an absence of surface
water in Zone 1, the Release Model input provides no releases to this
receptor; the corresponding zone allotment factors are therefore by-
passed and may have any input values. Conservatively, the dispersion of
releases to air and deposition from the air onto land surface and sur-
face water in the various zones uses the same allotment factors (ZORALO,
DEPGND, and DEPWTR) used for terminal storage. These, of course, may
be changed as appropriate for a more detailed study of repository opera-
tions. The only other items of data changed from terminal storage for
this demonstration are for calculation control. Release time increments
are set starting with 0 - 5 y (ITRS = 2) through 25 - 30 y (ITRE = 7)
and a flag (IW - 3} is set to denote repository operations. The latter
controls a branch calculation of the radiodecay factor (DECFAC) when a
time prior to the full repository inventory accumulation is involved.
Input data for the Release Model provides estimates of probabilities
for component and the fraction of an affected inventory released to a
given receptor by a release occurrence. During repository operations,
the accumulated inventory at a given time is divided between; 1) surface
storage and handling, 2) underground handling, and 3) emplaced under-
ground storage. Accordingly, a time dependent factor is applied to
express the effected inventory for each release scenario. This is
explained in later paragraphs below. First, consider the release sce-
narios. Fault trees developed for repository operations by Logan (Lo74aJ
consider the following basic events for release to air or land surface:
302
-------
1) Earthquake
2) Wind (tornados or hurricanes)
3) Sabotage
4) Aircraft impact
5) Flood
6) Handling accidents.
Each of these may occur with a range of severities and is subject
to a conditional inhibit gate for probability of breech of containment
for a given severity level. These events apply primarily to surface
operations. For release to land surface, a factor designating fraction
of "no cleanup" applies. Release to air from underground operations
involves a handling accident in the mine, subject to an inhibit condition
for breech of containment, plus improper ventilation system operation
(failure of filters). Release to ground water considers flooding of the
mine {or a portion) by water seepage into a shaft or into storage rooms,
plus a failure of corrective repair.
For this demonstration, the six basic events listed above are
considered to occur at two severity levels and are lumped together as
"major events" and as "minor events," illustrated in the simplified
fault trees in Fig. 9-1. No attempt is made here to evaluate probabi-
lities for individual component basic events. The transfer coefficient
as a function of time to a given preliminary environmental input receptor
for a given release mechanism and radionuclide is defined by Eq. 4-2 in
Vol. I as
A(t) = p
-------
RELEASE TO
LAND SURFACE
RELEASE TO
GROUND WATER
RELEASE TO
AIR
HIKE
ACCIDENT
RELEASE
MAJOR EVENT
RELEASE
MINOR EVENT
RELEASE
REPAIR
FAILURE
NINE
FLOODING
CLEANUP
MINOR EVENT
RELEASE
MAJOR EVEHT
RELEASE
CONTAINMENT
BREECH
CONTAINMENT
BREECH
MINE HANDLING ACCIDENT
BASIC EVENTS
Figure 9 1. Simplified fault trees for repository operations demonstration,
-------
surface, it is assumed that 0.1% of contents are released from 1 canister
among 500 canisters exposed and Ai becomes 0.001 x 1/500 = 2 x 10
For release to ground water, Al is calculated within AMRAW by a leach
subroutine. Data input (CFAI) assumes 250 canisters are exposed to one
leach incident.
In Eq. 9-1, P(t) is the annual probability of occurrence of release
and is expressed by Eq. 3-3 in Vol. I as
P(t) « P (t) P (t) ... P (t), (9-2)
12 n
where each component factor may be any of five functions of time. The
first factor, P^(t), is used here to express the fraction of accumulated
inventory which is exposed to the release scenario. While this factor
is not a probability of event occurrence, the programmed flexibility in
AMRAW makes it convenient to use the P^(t) component of P(t) to account
for portions of the total inventory exposed to a given release scenario.
Table 9-1 lists the total accumulated inventory in metric tons (MT) at
each reference time and the assumed average quantities in handling at the
surface and underground. It may be seen that the quantities handled at
the surface are assumed to represent approximately 6 months' receipts at
the beginning as operations get underway, with one canister at a time
handled underground.. As operations mature, surface inventory increases
but represents a decrease to 1 months' receipts as underground operations
level out at 10 canisters at a time. This handling quantity allows 5
hours per canister for emplacement at the peak receival rate. Figure
9-2 is a semi-log plot of the surface/total and mine/total handling
ratios. The surface handling fraction is approximated by the straight
line on the semi-log plot, represented by the equation
P1 (t) = exp^- 0.0991 (t + 18.8)j . (9-3)
The corresponding underground fraction is
PL(t) = exp£- 0.140 (t + 33.4)j. (9-4)
305
-------
Table 9-1. Repository Inventory Accumulation and Assumed
Surface and Underground Handling Quantities
Surface
Underground
Reference
Average
Accumulated
Quantity
Surface
Quantity
Mine
Time
Receipt Rate
Inventory
Handled
Total
Handled
Total
Y
MT/y
MT
MT
MT
(no. canisters)
0
0
0
0
0
0
100
__ *1
5
5.01 x 10
50
9-98 x 10"-
3 (1)
5.98 x 10
1,700
O
_ "3
10
9.01 x 10
500
5.55 x 10
CO
2.00 x 10
3,600
A
J
_ q
15
2.70 x 10
900
3.33 x 10
30 (10)
1.11 x 10
6,400
A
20
5.90 x 10
1,200
2.03 x 10
30 (10)
5.08 x 10
10,400
5
-2
-4
25
1.10 x 10
1,500
1.35 x 10
30 (10)
2.70 x 10
15,200
C
— *5
—4
30
1.87 x 10
1,500
8.02 x 10
30 (10)
1.60 x 10
acanister capacity is waste from 3 MT spent fuel.
-------
Surface
Underground
10 15 20
Time (years)
25
30
Figure 9 -2. Fraction of total inventory in
handling at surface and underground,
307
-------
These correspond to the exponential programmed function (see Section
4.C in vol. I)
Pn (t) = C + exp j^B (t - tp)j , (9-5)
where AMRAW input parameters and values become C = PROBB =0.0, B = CP =
-0.0991 and -0.140 respectively, and t = TP = -18.3 and -33.4 respec-
tively. The data input to branch to this function is IFLAG = 3.
Next, the other component factors, P_(t) ... P (t), must be esti-
2 n
mated for each scenario. The balance of this paragraph continuously
refers to Fig. 9-1. For this demonstration, it is assumed that the pro-
bability of occurrence of a basic event comprising a major event release
to air or to land surface is P^(t) = 0.001/y. It is then assumed that
1% of such events result in a breech of containment, or P.j(t) = 0.01
(see conditional gates Fig. 9-1) . Similarly, minor events are assumed
to be much more frequent, with = O'^/y an<^ containment breech also
P^(t) = 0.01. For release to land surface, the factor representing "no
cleanup" is represented by P^(t) = 0.50. This assumes that 50% of spills
on the land surface are cleaned up prior to dispersion. For the mine
handling accident scenario, the accident probability is taken as P^(t)
= 0.5/y, containment breech: = 0*01' an<^ the ventilation system
is assumed to malfunction 1% of the time or P^(t) = 0.01. Release to
ground water assumes a mine flooding probability cf = 0-02/Y an<^
"repair failure" of 50% or P (t) = 0.50. Each of the factors P (t) is
3 n
input to AMRAW via the subscripted variable PROBB. A constant function
of time is designated for each factor (IFLAG = 0).
The 6 release scenarios, or cutsets in Fig. 9-1, are summarized in
Table 9-2. It is emphasized that the data input values listed in Table
9-2 and described in preceding paragraphs are used here to demonstrate
methods for data preparation and operation of the AMRAW cede applied to
the repository operations phase.
308
-------
Table 9-2. Summary of Demonstration Release
Scenario for Repository Operations
Cutset Scenario Factor Value
Release to Air
1 Major event at Al 0.001
surface P^(t) a
P2(t) 0.001
P (t) 0.01
—6
2 Minor event at Al 2 x 10
surface P^ft) a
P2(t) 0.20
P3(t) 0.01
3 Handling accident in Al 0.001
P^t) b
P2(t) 0.50
P3(t) 0.01
P4(t) 0.01
Release to Land Surface
4 Major event at Al 0.001
surface P^t) a
P2(t) 0.001
P3(t) 0.01
P.(t) 0.50
4
-6
5 Minor event at Ai 2 x 10
surface P^tt) a
P2(t) 0.20
P3(t) 0.01
P^(t) 0.50
4
Release to Surface Water
None (no surface water in Zone 1)
Release to Ground Water
6 Mine flooding Al c
P (t) 0.02
P2(t) 0.50
aP (t) designated by Eq. 9-3.
^ J-
P^(t) designated by Eq. 9-4.
Al calculated by leach subroutine.
309
-------
B. RESULTS
The demonstration of AMRAW applied to the repository operations
phase considers preliminary estimates of releases during a 30 y operation
period. Results provide some indication of system response characteris-
tics but a more complete analysis of repository design and operating
procedures is needed for assessment of this waste management phase.
Figure 9-3 has plots of local total body dose rates in Zones 1 and
2 and the corresponding nonspecific dose rate, totaled for all nuclides.
Dose rates increase as repository inventory increases. After the reposi-
tory is sealed (assumed at 30 y), dose rates from accumulated releases
during operation decrease over subsequent time. Consequences of any
releases after the repository operations phase are calculated by the
previously described application of AMRAW to the terminal storage phase.
Table 9-3 lists the most significant radionuclides versus time as indi-
cated by the calculations. Local dose rates reach an indicated maximum
of 3.9 mrem/y in the vicinity of the repository (Zone 1) near the end
of the operations period. In Zone 2, surrounding the repository zone,
dose rates are lower by a factor of about 100. Over most of the long
term period, only 5 radionuclides at any one time comprise over 99% of
the total calculated dose rate (Table 9-3); this involves 10 nuclides
altogether. The nonspecific dose rate is dominated by Cs-137 and Sr-90
at early times (less than 600 y), is sustained primarily by Americium
4
in middle times, and after 10 y, is almost totally due to Tc-99 and
Ra-226. The maximum indicated nonspecific dose rate is 27 man-rem/y,
reached near the end of the operations period. As discussed in Part 1,
the nonspecific dose is from exported agricultural products which repre-
sent the total food needs for about 10^ persons; the maximum individual
dose rate from this dose category then becomes approximately 0.03 mrem/y.
The input data used includes a ground water velocity 6 times the esti-
mated value to conservatively cover uncertainty. On the basis, neptu-
nium breaks through in ground water in Zone 2 at times near 10^ y, and
is partially discharged to surface water assumed to be a drinking water
. . 6
source. This results in the rising curve in Fig. 9-3 at times near 10
y, representing both mrem/y local dose rate in Zone 2 and man-rem/y
nonspecific dose rate.
310
-------
Sample output breaking dose rates down by environmental receptors
is given in Appendix 0 for Zones 1 and 2 and the nonspecific category.
In Zone 1, releases to air dominate the results, with releases to land
surface comprising 1 - 10% over the full time range. No surface water is
assumed in Zone 1. In Zone 2, where surface water does exist, this
receptor dominates with 70 - 100% of the total dose rate, followed by
releases to air and then land surface. Ground water is negligible until
some neptunium breakthrough at times near 106 y. For the nonspecific
dose rate category, releases to land surface dominate with 70 - 90% of
the total during repository operations. After the operations period,
releases for this phase cease, and no further direct or indirect depo-
sitions occur. After repository operations, assumed persistence in sur-
face water causes this receptor to comprise virtually the total source
of dose rates over the long term. Breakthrough of Tc-99 in ground water
(in Zone 2) causes this receptor to contribute up to 9% of the total
(from drinking water to meat production} at times in the vicinity of
6,000 y. Ground water concentrations peak at 7,000 y from Tc-99 (and
j
1-129), at 200,000 y from C-14, and Np-237 begins to buildup from break-
through after 700,000 y.
Further detailed analysis* of results for this case are not justified
because of the preliminary nature of the estimated input data for the
release scenarios.
311
-------
Table 9-3. Most Significant Radionuclides Versus Time Based
Upon Total Body Dose for Repository Operationsa
2
10 y
Nuclide^, Accum.
%c
10
Nuclide,
3
y
Accum.
%
Nuclide
4
10 y
, Accum.
%
io5
Nuclide,
Y
Accum.
%
106 y
Nuclide, Accum.
%
Local,
Zone
1
Am-241
28
Am-241
40
Am~243
47
Pu-239
65
Negligible
Cm-244
55
Am-243
73
Pu-240
73
Th-229
79
Pu-238
72
Pu-240
93
Pu-239
90
Np-237
90
Sr-90
86
Np-239
98
Np-239
97
Th-230
98
Am-243
92
Pu-2 39
99+
Am-241
99+
Ra-226
99+
Nonspecific
Cs-137
89
Am-241
53
Tc-99
98
Tc-99
88
Np-237 100
Sr-90
99+
Am-243
95
Ra-226
99+
Ra-226
99+
Am-24l
Ra-226
97
Am-243
Ra-225
Cm-244
Tc-99
98
Ra-225
Pb-210
Am-243
Cs-135
99+
Am-241
Cs-135
aCase 56 is the preliminary demonstration to repository operations.
Nuclides are ranked in order of dose rates, with the highest listed first.
The accumulated percentage is percent of total dose rate from all 2 5 nuclides.
-------
Nonspecific dose
man-rem/year
Local dose in
Zone 1 mrem/year
/ Local
dose in
Zone 2
mrem/year
Nonspecific
and Zone 2
dose
Repository operations
to 30 years
Time (years)
Figure 9-3. Repository operations: average annual
local total body dose to individual in
Zones 1 and 2 and nonspecific dose,
total all nuclides.
313
-------
Chapter 10
APPLICATION TO GROUND SURFACE STORAGE
The AMRAW computer code can be applied to each phase of the radio-
active waste management sequence. Application to ground surface storage
is similar to the application to repository operations in the previous
chapter. The operating period of a surface storage facility is similar
in concept to a repository operations period. It is preferred that the
waste or spent fuel inventory and its accumulation over time for surface
storage be established for a specific facility and input to AMRAW instead
of the repository inventory. However, it may be appropriate if desired,
to express the surface storage inventory as some function of the reposi-
tory inventory, as was done for surface and underground handled quanti-
ties in Chapter 9.
Release scenarios for a surface storage facility may be constructed
in a manner similar to the approach used for repository operations.
Detailed designs of facilities are needed to accomplish this. Basic
events to be considered include, as before: earthquakes, tornados,
hurricanes, sabotage, aircraft impact, flooding, and handling accidents.
Air or water cooling provisions, container corrosion and other factors
associated with storage for up to decades enter into this analysis. In
the absence of a specific facility design, a numerical application of
AMRAW is not attempted here.
314
-------
Chapter 11
PRELIMINARY DEMONSTRATION FOR
ANOTHER GEOLOGIC SETTING
As part of the development of the generic AMR&W model and conputer
code, an application to terminal storage in a bedded salt model reposi-
tory was completed. A preliminary demonstration for another geologic
setting is presented here to illustrate the generic nature of the model.
In addition to bedded salt, other formations being studied for
possible repository use include dome salt, shales (argillaceous material),
basalt and granite. Complete implementation of AMRAW to a proposed
repository in another geologic setting involves different demographic
and agricultural data as well as different geologic and release scenario
data. To demonstrate the differences in model application due only to a
different geologic setting, this demonstration simply substitutes another
structure for the bedded salt formation. For the purpose, the Denver
Basin was selected and this formation, including a thick deposit of
Pierre Shale, is assumed to be at the Los Medaflos model site in lieu of
the existing bedded salt formation.
315
-------
A. SELECTION AND DESCRIPTION OF GEOLOGIC BASIN
Microcrystalline argillaceous material is attractive for the envi-
ronment of a nuclear repository site, because of the relatively low
permeability and porosity coefficients associated with shales, and the
good sorption properties for shales which tend to prevent or retard
radionuclide migration. The characteristics of the Denver Basin make it
attractive for a nuclear repository site because of: 1) the massive
sequences of moderately homogeneous argillaceous material, 2) the basin
contains up to 4000 m (13,000 ft) of sediment in the western portion,
thinning down to approximately 1200 m (4000 ft) of sediment in the east-
ern margin, and 3) only minor episodes of volcanism have occurred within
the basin in the past 30 million years. The Denver Basin is a relatively
stable structure, located at the western margin of the Great Plains in
the east-central portion of Colorado, southeastern Wyoming, and the
southwestern and western portions of South Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas.
Within the central area of the basin the Pierre Shale of Late Cretaceous
Age, consisting of thick sequences of a lower gray and black shale, a
middle section of shale-sandstone sequences, and an upper shale unit,
was selected for this study. Massive sequences of microcrystalline-shale
size material range from 1000 - 1900 m in thickness. Relatively minor
amounts of macrocrystalline-sand size are interbedded within the shale.
Davis [Dv75] suggests that a favorable site for a nuclear repository
within the Denver Basin is near the eastern margin of the basin, charac-
terized by relatively low basin relief and less complex geological struc-
ture .
Additional description of geographic and geologic features of the
Denver Basin is presented in Appendix P.
316
-------
B. DATA FOR AMRAW INPUT
Any change in the model repository due to differences in properties
of the formation must first be defined. Then, input data for the Release
Model and the Transport-to-Environment part of the Environmental Model
are needed.
1. Model Repository. The thermal conductivity of shale is appro-
ximately one-third that of rock salt [Ck66]. This suggests that the
thermal loading should be reduced in shale to limit maximum temperatures
reached in the disposal horizon to a desired range. A complete thermal
analysis considering all of the rock properties and the rock mechanical
response to thermal loading is not available. For purposes here, it is
2
assumed that the repository area is doubled from 10 km (used for the
2
bedded salt model repository) to 20 km for high level waste from repro-
cessing of 187,000 MT of spent fuel. Assuming only 75% of the total
repository area is actually used for disposal, this assumes a reduction
of the initial heat load from 370 to 185 kw/hectare.
The repository is assumed to be in Pierre shale corresponding to
a site near the eastern margin of the Denver Basin, a region of nearly
horizontal bedding and low basin relief. A burial depth of 800 m places
the repository in the lower third of the Pierre Shale.
2. Release Model Data. The release scenarios and associated data
used for the application to a bedded salt model repository are listed
in Table 6-4 in Part 1. For this preliminary demonstration to a repos-
itory in shale, the same scenarios are appropriate and they are listed
in Table 11-1. The determination of revised numerical values of param-
eters is presented in following paragraphs.
(a) Meteorite Impact. The probability of a direct strike by a
meteorite of enough energy to exhume material from a depth of 800 m is
-14 2-1 2
shown in Appendix E to be 1 x 10 (1cm - y) . For a 20 km reposi-
tory, this becomes (20) (1 x 10~14) = 2 x 10~13 y_1. For the
repository in bedded salt, it was estimated that a direct hit exhumes
5% of repository inventory to the air and 5% directly to land surface;
the more dilute emplacement in shale reduces the fraction exhumed by a
factor of two to 2.5% each to air and land surface. The annual
317
-------
Table 11-1. Summary of Release Scenarios for Repository in Shale
CUT SET
RELEASE TO RECEPTOR
EVENT
ANNUAL PROBABILITY
ESTIMATED RELEASE
FRACTION
FUNCTION
ESTIMATED VALUE
1
Air
Direct expulsion by
meteorite impact
Constant
-13
2 x 10
0.025
2
Air
Direct expulsion by
volcanic explosion
Constant
3 x 10~12
0.045
3
Air
Direct expulsion by
diatreirte
Constant
3 x lO"12
0.007
4
Land Surface
Surface reduced to
waste by erosion
Ramp
0.0 for
t < 8.0 x 106 y;
(t - 8.0 x 106) x
5.6 x 10~8; for
t > 8.0 x 106 y
a2 x lo"5
5
Land Surface
Transport to surface
by meteorite impact
Constant
2 x 10"13
0 .025
6
Land Surface
Volcanogenic transport
to surface
Constant
1 x 10-11
0-045
7
^Surface Water
Surface reduced to
waste by erosion
Ramp
0.0 for
t < 8.0 x 10 y
(t - 8.0 x 106 y;
5.6 x 10"®; for
t > 8.0 x 106 y
a2 x 10"5
1
-------
Table 11-1. Summary of Release Scenarios for Repository in Shale (continued)
CUT SET
RELEASE TO RECEPTOR
EVENT
ANNUAL
PROBABILITY
FUNCTION
ESTIMATED VALUE
FRACTION
8
Surface Water
Transport to surface
by meteorite impact
Constant
2 x 10-13
0.025
9
Surface Water
Volcanogenic transport
to surface
Constant
1 x 10_11
0.045
10
Ground Water
(see Fig. 7-1)
Faulting; not sealed,
interconnecting
aquifers
Constant
-7
2 x 10
c
Calculated
leach rates
NOTES: aRelease fraction for exposure by erosion assumes vertical canisters eroded at same annual rate
as land surface.
The release to surface water corresponds to the same cut sets as for release to land surface
plus the presence of surface water.
c
The release fraction for release to ground water is the inventory fraction leached per year,
as calculated by function RLEACH under subroutine FAULT in AMRAW.
-------
probability and estimated release fraction are entered in Table 11-1 for
cut set (release scenario) numbers 1, 5 and 8 (expulsion to air, transport
to land surface, and transport to surface water, respectively) .
2
(b) Voloan-ism. The equivalent radius of a 20 km repository
is approximately 2.5 km. Referring to the procedure in Appendix c
and Figure C-l, the corresponding volcanism effect zone has a radius
2
of r + 2r = 4.7 km (area 69.4 km ), where r = 1.1 km is taken as the
average volcano radius. The probability of volcanism effecting the
-9 4 11 -1
larger repository becomes (5.0 x 10 )(69.4/3.1 x 10 ) = 1.12 x 10 y
(use 1 x 10-11 y"1). This is the probability for volcanogenic transport
to land surface (cut set 6) and to surface water (cut set 9) . The proba-
bility of a volcanic explosion or diatreme is 0,3 times the basic volcanism
-12 -1
event or 3 x 10 y . This applies to direct expulsion to air by vol-
canic explosion (cut set 2) or by diatreme.
The estimated release fraction is one-half of the expected value of
area intersection of the repository by a volcano or diatreme. Approxi-
mating by Riemann sums, the expected intersection area for a volcano
2
becomes 1.8 km or a fraction of 1.8/20 = 0-09 and the estimated release
fraction becomes 0.5 x 0.09 = 0.045 (cut sets 2, 6, and 9). For a dia-
2
treme, the intersection area is 0.28 km , fraction 0.28/20 = 0.014, and
release fraction 0.5 x 0.014 = 0.007 (cut set 3).
(a) Surface Erosion. Denudation rates are calculated for
drainage basins, which average 1500 square miles in an area and are
underlain predominantly by sedimentary and metamorphic rocks. Average
denudation rates range from 3 to 10 cm (0.1 to 0.3 feet) per 1000 years,
whereas an average of maximum denudation rates is about 100 cm (3 feet)
per 1000 years [Su56, Su61]. The denudation rates are an exponential
function of drainage-basin relief, indicating that denudation rates in-
crease rapidly with uplift. Denudation rates in humid climates are about
four times slower. The relief/length ratio near the eastern margin of
the Denver Basin is approximately 0.002 (the corresponding value in the
Los Medanos area of southeastern New Mexico is approximately 0.008). A
graph by Schumm [Su56] indicates that the range of average dunation rates
stated above corresponds to a relief/length range of 0.02 to 0.05. It is
therefore conservative (by a factor of about 30 for the high rate) to
320
-------
use the average rates for lower relief of the Denver Basin. This repre-
sents approximately the same factor of conservatism previously used for
the bedded salt application (10 - 50 cm/1000 y) with relief four times
as great.
The time required to expose the waste horizon at a depth of 800 m
at the upper end of the denudation rates, 10 cm/1000 y, is
800 It 102 „ „ ,„6 ,,, ,,
10/1000 = 8'° * 10 y • l11-11
The probability is zero for exposure at shorter times. The probability
is assumed to be 1.0 that exposure will occur from the low end of the
rates, 3 cm/1000 y, in
800 x 10 2 „ „ ,„7
3/1000 = 2'6 * 10 y " ai"2)
A ramp function of probability between these two times has a slope of
1.0 0.0 r ^
= — = 5.6 x 10 y . Ul-3)
2.6 x 10 - 8.0 x 10
Therefore, AMRAW input for surface erosion cutsets 4 and 7 in Table 11-1
is.- initial probability (PROBB) 0.0, function type (IFLAG) 2 for ramp
0
function, time at start of probability increase (TP) 8.0 x 10 y, and
— 8
slope of increase (CP) 5.6 x 10 . The release fraction for exposure
by erosion assumes vertical canisters eroded at the same annual rate as
land surface. The estimated release fraction (annual in this case) for
300 cm long canisters at a mean rate of 6 cm/1000 y becomes
^222. . 2 X 10"5 y"1 (11-4)
and is the input value for AAi.
It should be noted that a calculation range of 10^ y does not reach
a time when contributions to release commence from this release scenario.
(d) Offset Faulting. Cutset 10 in Table 11-1 is a scenario for
offset faulting causing a fracture to pass through the repository hori-
zon and interconnect aquifer strata above and below the repository
321
-------
(Fig. 11-1) . Aquifers in this case may consist of multiple distributed
thin porous bedding components spaced through the shale. Attempts to
obtain seismic and hydrologic data for the Denver Basin from the USGS
and from petroleum companies were not successful. For this demonstration
it is assumed that the seismic data applied to the Los Medanos area for
the bedded salt structure may also be used for the Denver Basin, and
only adjustment for repository size is required.
Referring to Appendix D , the long-term average of fault
2
surface over which some movement occurs becomes 0.012 km ,/y, and the
4 2
total surface of Permian-Peruisylvanian faults considered is 10 km .
Well sampling in the Los Medanos area indicates an old fault density
2
beneath the area of one per 5 km. Assuming the 20 km repository in
shale may be represented by a linear dimension of /2Q~ =4.5 km, the pro-
bability of an old fracture beneath the repository is 4.5/5 =0.9. Again
assuming the probability of movement on such an old fault penetrating the
repository to be 0.2, the annual probability of a fault penetrating the
repository becomes
Average Fault Surface with Movement/y /Prob. of fracture \ /Profa* of\
Total Surface of Permian-Penn. Faults X \beneath repository/ x l Movement J
\ / \on fault/
_ 0.012 km2/y ^ -7 -1
4 2 X X - 2.2 x 10 y . (11-5)
10 km
-7 -1
This compares with 1.4 x 10 y obtained for the smaller bedded salt
repository.
The waste form is assumed to be borosilicate glass, as before, and
no data revisions for leach rate calculations are made. Effective dif-
fusivities are paired with corresponding dissolution rate constants to
represent e3
-------
Surface
"yy 4> ? y / >" y /"v—y /' /"y / 7 / a // y / / »—> / v•¦¦/v > / y r v r ; /—r-
il
/,
Top of Shale
0 a
Upper Aquifer Components
a a Disposal Horizon
Lower Aquifer Components
Faul t
Figure 11-1. Interconnection of upper and lower aquifer
bands in shale by offset faulting.
-------
model parameters used for the formations overlying the bedded salt at
Los Medanos are also assumed here for demonstration purposes (see Table
6-9)- This includes a water velocity of 4 x 10~^ m/d (1.51
m/y). The exception is K, values. Appendix C presents estimated K,
a a
values for shale based upon Oklo natural reactor data. The values listed
in Column 2 of Table C-2, plus 600 for Cm, are used here. For comparison,
the values listed in Column 1 (but reduced by 30%) were used for the
bedded salt application. As discussed in Part 1, a value of only
slightly over 10 results in retardation sufficient to prevent discharge
within 10 y. The only nuclide listed with an estimated K_ less than
a
200 for shale is 1-129; this becomes the only nuclide for which calcu-
lations can show discharge.
324
-------
C. RESULTS AND COMPARISON WITH BEDDED SALT
The repository in shale is assumed to occupy double the area of the
corresponding model repository in bedded salt. This leads to some increase
in the probabilities for disruptive event occurrences but generally
results in reduced releases if an event does occur. Table 11-2 lists
ratios which compare release parameters for shale from Table 11-1 to
those for bedded salt from Table 6-4. For meteorite impact, the
doubled probability for doubled area is offset by the halved release
(concentration in shale repository one-half that in bedded salt) and the
net transfer coefficient (product of probability and release fraction) is
therefore the same for both geologic settings (ratio of 1.00). The
transfer coefficients for volcanism events for shale become 0.75 to 0.83
times those for bedded salt. The conditions for leaching are input as
being unchanged and the transfer coefficient for faulting and leaching
shows an increase for shale corresponding to the greater probability that
the larger area will be penetrated by a fracture.
3
The only nuclide listed with an estimated less than 20 cm /g is
1-129. As a value only slightly over 10 results in retardation sufficient to
prevent discharge within 10^ y, 1-129 is the only nuclide which contributes
to consequences via ground water in shale.
Figure 11-2 summarizes results with graphs of total body local dose
rates in Zones 1 and 2 and nonspecific dose rate, totaled for all nuclides.
Earlier results for bedded salt are added to Fig. 11-2 for comparison with
the results obtained for shale. Dose rates are seen to be consistently
lower for shale, but not dramatically lower. This follows from the
lower volcanism calculated contributions and improved sorption properties
of shale which prevent discharge of C-14, Tc-99, and Np-237. In parti-
cular, breakthrough of Np for the bedded salt case commencing at 700,000
0
y (note the spike in Fig. 7-2 near 10 y) does not occur for the shale
case.
Various other categories of AMRAW output are reduced for the shale
case by the relative amounts indicated by Fig. 11-2. Because of the
preliminary nature of this demonstration, input data uncertainty is such
that detailed analysis of the output is not justified. The objective
325
-------
Table 11-2. Ratios of Release Parameters for Shale to
Those for Bedded Salt
Annual
Release
Transfer
Cut Setsa
Event
Probability
Fraction
Coefficient
P
Al
P X Al
1, 5, 8
Meteorite Impact
2,00
0.05
1.00
2
Volcanic Explosion
1.25
0.60
0.75
3
Diatreme
1.25
0.67^
0.83
6, 9
Volcanogenic Transport
1.23
0.60
0.74
10
Faulting and Leaching
1,43
o
o
r—1
1.43
aCut sets 4 and 7, surface erosion, do not contribute to calculated release and
are omitted here.
Based upon a corrected value of Al - .0105 for bedded salt.
-------
Nonspecific dose
man-rem/year
Local dose
Zone ] mrem/
year
V
Local dose in Zone 2
mrem/year
Case 55 - shale
Case A8 - bedded salt
Time (years)
Figure. 11-2. Repository in shale compared to bedded
salt: average annual local total body
dose to individual in Zones 1 and 2 and
nonspecific dose, total all nuclides.
327
-------
here is simply to illustrate methods for changing data to apply AMRAW
to another geologic setting though data acquisition for the purpose is
incomplete.
328
-------
Chapter 12
APPLICATIONS TO OTHER RADIOACTIVE
AND NONRADIOACTIVE HAZARDOUS MATERIALS
The Radioactive Waste Management Systems Model and computer code
AMRAW were developed for the purpose of providing tools for technology
assessment of the several phases in the high-level radioactive waste
management sequence. Basically, the model considers: 1) a hazardous
material confined within protective barriers, 2) disruptive processes
which can lead to migration, 3) movement to and through the environ-
ment to man, and 4) effects on man from exposure or intake. This sug-
gests that the model is not limited to high-level radioactive waste but
may be applicable to low or intermediate level waste, transuranic (TRU)
waste, or other nonradioactive hazardous materials. A study was per-
formed to examine the feasibility of applying AMRAW to these other
materials. This involved tracing the flow of calculations to determine
whether AMRAW parameters apply directly or can be adopted to apply to
the other materials.
329
-------
A. OTHER RADIOACTIVE MATERIALS
Radioactive waste which is other than high-level covers a wide range
of materials including ion exchange resins, contaminated hardware, chemi-
cal residues, and ash residues from incineration of contaminated combus-
tible materials. Further, these may be configured in a variety of waste
forms including solidification in cement or bituirdn. Disposal of this
class of material in the past has been in shallow land burial sites.
In the future, repository sites may range from shallow land burial to
deeper geological disposal, depending upon degrees of protection required
for various categories of material.
In general, AMRAW can be applied directly to these other radioactive
materials. The use of each parameter is the same as for high-level waste,
though there may be considerable differences in numerical values of input
data. Because of the generally lower level of radioactivity prominance of
short-lived nuclides and correspondingly less stringent handling, pro-
cessing, and disposal requirements, the assessment process may concen-
trate on shorter time frames. Release scenarios appropriate to shorter
time frames are emphasized. There can be some difficulty in establish-
ing the inventory of radionuclides to be considered due to the mixture
of waste components. The range of components and waste forms also
presents some difficulty in estimating leaching parameters. If a
wide range of leachability for components of varying nuclide content
prevents use of averaged leaching properties for a given repository,
AMRAW may be applied to each of two or more categories and the results
superimposed.
The AMRAW code is quite flexible and cam readily accept the input
required to address radioactive materials derived from various sources.
However, as with any new application, careful analysis of the specific
problem is required in order to identify and deal properly with the
prominent events and activities affecting the solution.
330
-------
B. NONRADIOACTIVE HAZARDOUS MATERIALS
H&zacdous materials may be divided into several general categories:
1) chemically toxic or poisonous, 2) flammable, 3) explosive, 4) bio-
logically infectious, or 5) radioactive.
Tha terra "hazardous waste" is defined in the Resource Conservation
and Recovery Act of 1976 [PL76] as,
"...a solid waste, or combination of solid wastes, which because
of its quantity, concentration, or physical, chemical, or in-
fectious characteristics may—
"(A) cause, or significantly contribute to an increase in
mortality or an increase in serious irreversible, or in-
capacitating reversible illness; or,
"(B) pose a substantial present or potential hazard to
human health, or the environment when improperly treated,
stored, transported, or disposed of, or otherwise
managed..."
Further, the term "hazardous waste management" is stated to mean
"...the systematic control of the collection, source pre-
paration, storage, transportation, processing, treatment,
recovery, and disposal of hazardous wastes."
Among other things, the Act is designed to provide technical and
financial assistance for the safe disposal of discarded materials, and
to regulate the management of hazardous waste. Although it specifically
excludes source, special nuclear, and byproduct material as defined by
the Atomic Energy Act of 1954, the parallel between these nonradioactive
hazardous materials and the radioactive materials for which AMRAW was
primarily designed can be seen from the above definitions. The princi-
pal differences affecting application of AMRAW to these materials are
due primarily to the chemical and/or biological nature of their damage
mechanisms, as opposed to radiological, and up to infinite lifetimes.
Inhalation of large doses of toxic gases such as chlorine or phosgene,
constitutes probably the most hazardous combination of poison and path-
way, but the relatively short lifetimes of these gases in our environ-
ment place them somewhat outside the intended scope of AHRAW. In contrast
elements or compounds such as barium, arsenic, cyanide and a host of
other toxic materials are essentially permanent environmentally and
331
-------
appear in or can be reduced to solid form. It is the management of these
materials that can be best assessed with AMRAW. Wherever possible
objectives should be to recycle hazardous materials or to chemically
convert them to non-hazardous compounds, instead of disposing them as
hazardous materials in a repository. While AMRAW may be applied to
1 various management phases such as surface storage and transportation,
the discussion which follows refers to the disposal phase. The concepts
developed also apply in a general sense to the other phases.
Figure 12-1 repeated from Vol. I, is a schematic of one branch of
the systems model applied, say, to a waste repository after operations
are completed (terminal storage). The following paragraphs refer to
this figure and consider each step through the model.
1. Inventory at Risk. The repository inventory may vary greatly,
both in composition and size, for the wide range of possible applications.
Waste inventories which are likely to be encountered may not be particu-
larly large but may be highly specialized and unique.
The waste inventory input to AMRAW is a matrix in mass units, such
as grams, of each element or compound of interest at each time to be
calculated over the full time range studied. A compound which does not
degrade with time has the same mass at all times. If it does degrade,
input data reflects this by different masses at the various times
following emplacement. If degradation is associated with transformation
into another hazardous material, this is reflected by input data for the
other material showing an increase in mass. This is analogous to radio-
decay in that it is a transformation from a hazardous form to either a
non-hazardous or another hazardous form. Consideration is required of
potential chemical, molecular combination, phase or other changes which
might be incurred by certain constituents of the waste inventory as the
result of time in specific environments. These can be expressed by the
input mass data for various compounds or forms. AMRAW calculates decay
factors, DECFAC, using the input matrix of masses. It appears that this
provision serves equally well for chemical decay of compounds or radio-
decay of nuclides. If an infinite lived compound is involved, the
332
-------
INVENTORY AT RISK
ACTIVITY TRANSFERi (COEFFICIENT
RELEASE MODEL
AMRAW-A
ENVIRONMENTAL MODEL
TRANSPORT TO ENVIRONMENT
ENVIRONMENT-TO-MAN PATHWAYS
"1
ECONOMIC MODEL
HEALTH EFFECTS
DAMAGE CALCULATIONS
AMRAW-B
w
DAMAGES
Figure 12-1. One branch of systems model.
333
-------
constant inventory with time simply evolves decay factors equal to unity.
2. Activity Transfer Coefficient. For radioactive waste, this is
the specific activity, Ci/g, and this converts mass in the inventory to
activity in Curies. For nonradioactive materials, the calculations may
be retained in mass units by input of 1.0 for this parameter for each
^compound considered. If a toxicity index comes into usage and it is
desired to carry the calculations in terms of such units, the activity
transfer coefficient can be employed to make the conversion.
3. Release Model. Release Model calculations are performed in the
same manner as for radioactive materials and differ from the other
applications mainly in input parameters associated with the elements and
compounds forming the waste, and the scenarios pertinent to probably
shorter time frames and perhaps less effective geologic barriers. The
release model calculates the fraction of inventory released during a
given time period either on a probabilistic or discrete event basis,
as designated by input parameters. It makes no difference whether this
refers to an inventory in grams, Curies, or some other unit. It is
within this model that a sub-program calculates leached quantities.
There may be difficulty in determining appropriate diffusivity coeffi-
cients, V , and dissolution rate constants, k, for the variety of com-
e
pounds and waste forms.
4. Transport to Environment. This first part of the Environment
Model can operate the same for nonradioactive materials as for radio-
active materials. Retardation in ground water transport depends upon
the distribution coefficient, K,. There may be difficulty in obtainina
d
values of K, to use for the variety of chemical forms encountered,
d
5. Environment-to-Man Pathways. This last part of the Environmental
Model is where differences of emphasis appear between radioactive and
nonradioactive applications. Figure 12-2, repeated from Vol. I, illus-
trates the main environment-to-man pathways. Predominant casual path-
ways for nonradioactive materials are ingestion, and, to a lesser extent,
inhalation of resuspended or transformed materials. Immersion, submer-
sion, and direct exposure, which would correspond to direct contact
pathways such as skin contact with caustic chemicals, are of less
significance because of dilution in the analysis of effects caused by
334
-------
PATHWAYS TO MAN
Ground
Water
Surface
Surface
* For Land Surface, the net total accumulated concentration applies to the Direct Exposure pathway,
and current deposition concentration applies to the Terrestrial Food pathway.
Figure 12-2. Main environment-to-man pathways.
-------
later, non-occupational exposure.
The environmental input receptor concentrations, which are calcu-
lated in preceding stages, are transformed to human dose commitment
through the transfer coefficient, C, which is formed as follows,
C = BIOFAC X VOLINT x DOSFAC . (12-1)
j
The factor, BIOFAC, expresses the concentration or integrated con-
centration in food and drink per unit concentration in the associated
environment, and input values may be obtained in the same manner as for
radionuclides. Difficulty could arise, however, where particular ele-
ments or compounds of interest are not currently included in output by
codes such as TERMOD [K2.76] or FOOD [Ba76] or where no stable element
transfer factors or bioaccumulation factors have been generated.
The second factor, VOLINT, expresses the consumption, exposure or
food production rate for each zone or subpath, and values may also be
produced in the same manner as for radioactive nuclides. Immersion and
direct exposure values should be carried through this factor, in the
event they are required for some specialized calculation or sensitivity
analyses.
The last term, DOSFAC, is the dose commitment conversion factor for
each combination of element or compound, organ, and exposure mode. For
intake of radionuclides, DOSFAC expresses mrem of dose equivalent per
yCi of activity intake. This is the single factor for which no simple
analogous approach currently exists for toxic materials. However, if
the values in the DOSFAC matrix are simply input as 1.0, the output
from the Environmental Model will be calculated intake. For example,
if masses of toxic materials in grams are carried through the model
(inventory in grams and "specific activity" = 1.0), setting DOSFAC =
1.0 results in intake in yg being calculated, or a "dose rate" of yg/y.
This form can be useful for comparisons or a judgement review to deter-
mine whether excessive values for public safety are indicated. Setting
DOSFAC = 0.0 may be input for immersion in air or water and direct
exposure to land surface, to confine the problem to one concerned with
the ingestion and inhalation pathways. Before proceeding with the
Economic Model, additional discussion follows concerning the difficulty
336
-------
of relating intake of toxic materials to effects.
Certain characteristics of toxic effects will affect adaptation of
AMRAW at this stage. First, the radiological application develops nuc-
lide concentrations in various organs, including total body, from which
estimated damages or damage rates are obtained directly based on nuclide
characteristics. Only the concentrations are pathway dependent. In
describing the effects of poisons on humans, however, the detailed body
organ receptor stage is replaced by cataloging data based largely on
mode of entry. For example, the inhalation hazard categorization and
toxic effects are treated in terms of DC_rt or lethal concentrations in
3 Q
the input environment; the ingestion hazard is treated in terms of LD^
or concentration in the recipient, a scheme more closely approaching the
radiological method. This is illustrated in Table 12-1 taken from EPA
publication SW-508 [EPA76a] which contains an accepted breakout of hazard
categories together with criteria applicable to different hazard grade
levels used in a scheme developed by the National Academy of Sciences
for the U. S. Coast Guard. Difficulty in effecting the AMRAW interface
is further aggravated by deficiencies in available toxicology informa-
tion [EPA76b]. For the most part, descriptions and documentation of
toxicity are published for elemental parent substances and very little
information is available for many new compounds. Also, most documen-
tation deals with responses to acute doses in relatively high concen-
trations, as is pertinent to occupational or laboratory interest, and
very little information is available that is relevant to the relatively
small quantities or concentrations expected in repositories or landfills.
As a result, biological half-lives, and the immediate, latent, cumulative,
and genetic effects of small repeated doses are germaine but are not yet
fully available and assembled for convenient use in analyses such as
AMRAW.
Another feature noted from Table 12-1 is the inclusion of hazard
effect categories other than those effecting man directly; viz., fire,
aquatic toxicity, and reactions. The original framework of AMRAW [Lo74a]
contained a branch for "Environmental Effects" to cover effects not
directly man related, but to reduce complexity in subsequent development
of AMRAW, this feature was eliminated.
337
-------
G
R
A
D
E
Table 12-1. Summary of Hazard Evaluation Criteria'
Hazard Cataggrwa
IV V
III
VI
VII
VIII
IX
Fire
Non-combmt-
iUs
Skin and
Era
All not
ttetciibad
below
Health
Vcpor
Inhalation
Gas
Inhalation
Not
Applicable
All not
dweribad
below
RipNtMl
Inhalation
OSHAJ*
KWOppm
Water PoUytxal
Reaction
| Human
Ton jetty
LDjo >
5CCK) mg/kg
AqusSi
TonialY
Wbta
Reaction
Imignif.
Hazard
TLrn> 1000 ma/S
SeH-Rasctian
No EppredtbJo
telf-racction
OJ
U)
00
IS
It
FPcc > 1«0°F
(WC)
FPcc
100°F-14CfF
(37£°B0°C)
f37.8fC>
FPcc < TOO* F
BP >lOO'F
(37.fl*C>
(37.fl°CI
FPcc < I (Xf F
BP < tOO'F
WtfC)
Corrosive
to eye*
Corrostvo
to jkin
LD,„
20-200 mg/kg
24-hr. tkin
contact
LDio < 20 mg
24-hr. (kin
contact
Oapreusnts.
asphyxiants
LCj0
200-2000 ppm
LCf ^ 60-200 ppm
or 0.6-2 m&i
LC,0 <60 ppm
or < 0.5 mg/8
•Priorities are dlacutssd In Subsection 3.1.3
All not
described
bfiovtr
LCj o
200-2000 ppm
LC|g
60-200 ppm
OS HA
lOaiOOOppm
LOjfl
500-5000 mg/kg
TL
100-1000 malt
OSHA
10-100 ppm
9-8-. CI,
s-g, MHj
LD.o
50-600 mg/kg
T«-m
10-100 mg/8
OSHA
1-10 ppm
LO(.
6-60 mo/kg
LC,o<50ppm OSHA <1 ppm LOJO<5i7Vkg TL < 1 mg/e o.j.. S03
May pojymarln
with low hast
svoiuUcn
Cant&nfegtien
msy coca
polymartesttea;
no SnMWEor
TL_ 1-10 asi-. Otsvm
paJysssrio;
N9t!m
cts&lLrcr
Sstl-recctJcn
may ccuse
explosion or
dstonation
Wota: Bto-concuntrotabla materlelj aro roltad to next higher hazard clarification. Subjected carcinogens ere retad as Grade 4.
aTaken from EPA publication SW-508 [EPA76a].
-------
6. Economic Model. The Economic Model comprises AMRAW-B and draws,
as its major input the "dose rate" output from.AMRAW-A. The first part .
of this model is Health Effects. For radioactive materials, this part
of the model applies incidence rates of various health effects (various
cancers, particularly) to corresponding organ dose rates to obtain deaths
from health effects. This assumes a linear response of effects to dose.
For nonradioactive hazardous materials, simple correlations apparently
do not yet exist. If a threshold response is more realistic, test state-
ments can be added to AMRAW-B to determine whether a calculated intake
rate exceeds a threshold for a given effect, whether morbidity or death.
Again, the combination of the DOSFAC factor in AMRAW-A and the incidence
rates of health effects factor in AMRAW-B comprise the area where more
information about toxic materials is needed. Knowledge of radioactivity
and its effects is more advanced than for other materials. The final
part of the Economic Model, Damage Calculations, can proceed as with
assessment of radioactive waste management phases. The evaluation of
health effects depends upon whether morbidity or death is being consi-
dered.
7. Additional Discussion. From this brief survey of nonradioactive
hazardous waste management it appears that terminal disposal philosophy
for these materials is strongly based on rapid environmental decay and
expected waste dilution on the intermediate time scales of concern. The
sensitivity and meaning of the Environmental Decay Constant, EDC, used
in AMRAW may require further study for this type of application. Through-
out AMRAW, editorial changes are required such as modification of FORMAT
write statements to reflect the type of assessment and the nature of
input data and output.
Also, in contemplating the application of AMRAW to nonradioactive
wastes, note should be taken of the wide variety of waste inventory
compositions which can be encountered, the relatively small, decentralized
nature of operations and disposal of the materials—usually co-located
with the generating plant, and of the somewhat independent manner in which
industry has necessarily operated in this field, conforming to state or
local guidelines where they exist, or resorting to its own judgement.
One intent of the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act of 1976 is to
339
-------
bring order and a common frame of reference to these activities, and it
is possible that methodology such as is offered in AMRAW can be useful
in solving many aspects of this problem.
340
-------
APPENDIX 0
SAMPLE AMRAW REPOSITORY OPERATIONS
DOSE CALCULATION OUTPUT
Sample output for the preliminary demonstration of AMRAW to the
repository operations phase, Case No. 56, all probabilistic releases,
broken down by environmental receptors.
Table 0-1
Average Annual Local Dose to Individual, MAN2LF for JF = 1 to
MAN2L for Total, mrem/y, Total for All Nuclides, Zones 1 and 2
Table 0-2
Average Annual Nonspecific Dose to Population, MAN2NF for JF
1 to 4, MAN2N for Total, man-rem/y, Total for All Nuclides.
341
-------
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APPENDIX P
DESCRIPTION OF DENVER BASIN
(ASSEMBLED BY P. A. LQNGMIRE)
GEOGRAPHIC FEATURES OF THE DENVER BASIN
¦5
The Denver Basin is one of the largest basins in the Rocky Mountain
area. It extends over 60,000 square miles across northeastern Colorado,
western Nebraska, and southeastern Wyoming. It is typically asymmetric
with its axis parallel with and close to the Front Range of central
Colorado; its deepest portion lies near Denver where there are more
than 13,000 feet of sediments.
Bounding the Basin on the west are the Front and Laramie Ranges of
Colorado and Wyoming. Other tectonic features surrounding the Basin
include the Hartville uplift on the northwest, the Black Hills on the
north, the Chadron-Cambridge Arch on the northeast, the Las Animas arch
on the southeast and on the south and southwest, the Sierra Grande and
Apishipa uplifts.
Strata in and around the Basin indicate that the area was predomi-
nantly a marine shelf during the early Paleozoic. Uplift during the
middle Paleozoic locally exposed older sedimentary rocks to extensive
erosion.
GEOLOGIC HISTORY OF THE DENVER BASIN
The seas transgressed in the Early Pennsylvanian and eroded the
Mississippian systems from the south. Fine to medium elastics and dense
thin-bedded carbonates were deposited in these seas. The first major
uplift of the Ancestral Rockies occurred in the Lower Pennsylvanian
Period. This uplift reached its peak during Lower Middle Pennsylvanian.
Clastic material from the uplifted mountains intertongues with marine
sediments of the expanding Des Moines sea. Marine transgression con-
tinued through the Upper Middle Pennsylvanian Period. Regression
continued during the Permian and a suite of rocks was deposited which
range from normal marine through evaporite to continental.
344
-------
Upper Permian and Triassic rocks supplied sediments to a shallow
hypersaline sea. Non-deposition persisted from Late Triassic to Middle
Jurassic time. During the Middle and Late Jurassic, seas encroached
from the northwest. At the close of the Jurassic, the seas regressed
and a broad Flood plain was developed.
The present basin form began to emerge as Early Cretaceous seas
advanced from the north and south [Bt37]. Earlier sediments were reworked
and the Jurassic-Cretaceous boundary was obscured. As the sea regressed,
Fluviatile material from the east and northeast developed a complex
delta system which intertongued with marine sediments basin ward. Another
delta extended into the area from the southwest and merged with an east-
ern delta. A second cycle of transgression and regression developed
similar depositional patterns. During Late Cretaceous, a major trans-
gression joined the northern and southern seas into a large seaway across
the down warping basin. Laramide tectonic activity reached its peak
during the Eocene. It was during the Laramide that the Front Range was
uplifted and the Basin acquired its present configuration.
PIERRE FORMATION
The Pierre shale of Late Cretaceous Age represents extensive marine
deposition on the broad eastern shelf of the Cretaceous Geosyncline [Gr49].
It is composed of thick sequences of gray and black shales and shaly
sandstones of the Upper Upper Cretaceous. In northeastern Colorado,
the formation has been subdivided into four zones, or members; the
Sharon Springs, Rusty, Hygiene and Transition members, in ascending
order. The Sharon Springs member is characterized by lack of fossils,
and the Rusty member by red-brown Limonitic (FeO-OH) concretions. The
Hygiene member consists of sandy shales and sandstones which make up
the transition of the Pierre to the overlying Fox Hills formation.
STRATIGRAPHY AND SEDIMENTATION OF THE PIERRE FORMATION
The sandstone zones of the Pierre Formation are composed of alter-
nating soft to hard, buff and gray sandstones and gray sandy shales.
The sandstones are dominantly fine-grained, ranging from fine to medium.
The grains show, for the most part, fair sorting of quartz grains,
abundant chert and matrix, and relatively few unstable minerals, with the
345
-------
exception of a few cases in which the clay matrix seems to have been
washed out and is largely replaced by calcite.
A marine environment of deposition of the sandstones is indicated
by both megafossils and macrofossils, and by the intimate interbedding
of individual sandstone beds with marine shales. With the exception of
the few cross-bedded members, which are mostly discontinuous. The Pierre
Sandstones contain a rather abundant clay matrix. This immature condition
of sorting would seem to indicate rather rapid mass transportation and
deposition. Mild pulsating uplifts in the general area of the northern
Front Range, accompanying the deposition of some of the sandstones, are
suggested by foraminiferal evidence (Scott, Cabban 1959, reported by
Weimer [Wm59]).
The Pierre sandstones represent the eastern most deposits of the
Mesa Verde group in Colorado, in as rauch as they are similar litho-
logically and occur in approximately the same stratigraphic position.
The Hygiene group of the Pierre shale of northeastern Colorado is divi-
sible into a lower shale unit, a middle sandy unit, and an upper shale
unit. The middle sandy unit has been referred to as the "Hygiene sand-
stone ."
STRATIGRAPHY OF THE HYGIENE SANDSTONE MEMBER
Fenneman (1905), as reported by Weimer [Wm59], named this member for
sandstone beds that outcrop about a third of the way from the base of
the Pierre shale a mile and a half west of the town of Hygiene in north-
eastern Boulder County, Colorado. The Hygiene member consists of a basal
240 foot thick light olive-gray to yellowish-gray silty limestone con-
centrations in the upper part, a medial 38-foot dark-gray clayey shale
with orange-brown iron-stained limestone concretions, and an upper 126
foot-thick ridge forming dusky-yellow thick-bedded friable medium-grained
sandstone. Three miles north of Kassler, the Hygiene member is 1,420
feet above the base of the Pierre, it is 600 feet thick and consists of
dusky yellow-soft shaly sandstone that contains, at the lower part and
the top, masses as much as 12 feet in diameter of gray rough hard
crystalline limestone. Beds and concretions of orange-brown ironstone
are present in the upper half. Marine invertebrate megafossils are
common in the Hygiene member in the Kassler-Boulder area.
346
-------
The Hygiene is separated from the younger Terry sandstone member by
as much as 387 feet of olive-gray sandy shale (Mather, Gilluly and Lusk,
1928, per Weimer IWm59]).
TERRY SANDSTONE MEMBER
Ball [Bad24] named this member for sandstone beds exposed at Terry
Lake two miles north of Fort Collins, Colorado. Olive-gray massive
fine-grained sandstone makes up the member at the type locality. Highly
fossiliferous-calcareous sandstone concretions 6 to 18 inches in diameter
are common. The thickness of the member in the Port Collins area ranges
from 10 to 20 feet. The Terry is separated from the younger Rock Ridge
sandstone member by 511 to 604 feet of sandy and non-sandy shale. This
shale unit in the Eldorado Springs-Morrison area contains a thin glauco-
nic sandstone about 900 feet above the top of the Hygiene member. Large
brown calcerous sandstone concretions in this bed contain numerous fossils.
ROCK RIDGE SANDSTONE MEMBER
This member was named by Ball [Ba£24] and consists of olive-gray
fine grained massive sandstones. It contains large calcerous sandstone
concretions that weather dark brown and is 97 feet thick. The Rocky
Ridge is separated from the higher Larimer sandstone member by 163 feet
to 187 feet of soft yellowish-gray sandstone and sandy shale with gray
sandstone concretions.
LARIMER SANDSTONE MEMBER
This member is composed of olive-gray fine grained massive sandstone
with brown calcerous sandy concretions. The member consists of two to
four thin ledge-forming brown sandstone beds separated by thicker units
of softer and lighter colored sandstone. The Larimer contains a large
and varied invertebrate fauna. The Larimer is separated from the younger
Richard Sandstone Member by 171 feet of sandy shale.
RICHARD SANDSTONE MEMBER
Olive-gray massive fine-grained sandstone is characteristic of
the Richard sandstone. Large orange-brown calcareous sandstone concre-
tions are common. The thickness is about 60 feet at Richard Lake, three
miles northeast of Fort Collins.
347
-------
IGNEOUS ACTIVITY IN THE DENVER BASIN
Igneous activity in the Denver Basin has played a minor role in its
evolution. It is possible, however, that some volcanic processes took
place within the Basin during the uplift of the Front Range during the
time span of Cretaceous to Eocene. However, few surface expressions
of^volcanic structures are known in the Basin. Therefore, it can be
generally stated that prolific volcanism is absent in the Denver Basin.
340
-------
APPENDIX Q
COMMENTS ON DIFFUSIVITIES AND K, VALUES
a
BASED ON DATA FROM THE OKLO NATURAL REACTOR
(D. G. BROOK INS)
DIFFUSIVITIES
2
The effective diffusivity, V , in units of cm /d, used for calcu-
e
lation of leach rates of nuclides from a borosilicate glass waste form
were estimated (see Vol. I) with the use of the Stokes-Einstein relation
[Bi60]
P " KT ^ t, (Q-l)
e 6iryR *
¦" 16 2 2
where K is the Stokes-Einstein constant equal to 1.38 x 10 g-cm /sec
molecule °K; p is the solvent viscosity at absolute temperature T °K
-3
(2.35 x 10 g/cm sec at 523 °K for water); and is the radius of the
diffusing particle in cm. As applied in leach rate calculations, a
corresponding dissolution rate constant, in units of d \ was also
obtained which relates V and experimentally measured leach data. The
values obtained for are listed in Column 1 of Table Q-l.
_8 135 137 ""10
Values range from 2.0 x 10 ( Cs and Cs) to 3.3 x 10 (Pu
isotopes). Use of these diffusivities may be justified only for those
species likely to be present as free ions (or possibly as simple complex
ions) in normal ground water. If one assumes that ground water from the
Jurassic Westwater Canyon Sandstone is typical, then the data of Phoenix
[Ph59] allows calculation of I = 0.06; this is possibly in support of
use of a simple diffusion equation as above where activity coefficients
of species being transported are assumed close to 1 (i.e., approximately
ideal solution).
An attempt is made here to comment on the use of such diffusivities
for the species tabulated (Table Q-l) based on the available data for
the Oklo Natural Reactor [IAEA75]. In brief, the parts of the uranium
ore at the Oklo deposit that sustained a critical fission reaction of
some 500,000 y duration at about 1.8 billion years ago are confined to
349
-------
Table Q-l. Estimates of Diffusivities
Nuclide
2
Diffusivity, cm /d
Column la
Column 2^
14c
9.6
X
10-10
io"16
9°Sr
1.6
X
10"8
io"21
90y
1.6
X
10-8
io"23
93Zr
6.3
X
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io"23
93Nb
6.9
X
10"10
io"23
99
T c
1.2
X
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io"18
129
9.5
X
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io"10
135Cs
2 .0
X
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io"21
137
io"8
io"21
Cs
2.0
X
210Pb
9.4
X
io"10
io"18
225Ra
7.7
X
io"10
io'21
226„
Ra
7.7
X
io'10
io"21
2 29 ,
Th
6.6
X
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io-23
230mu
Th
6.6
X
io~10
io"23
237
Np
7.5
X
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-23
10
239,.n
Np
7.5
X
io"10
-23
10 J
238,239,240,241pu
3.3
X
io"10
io"23
241,242,243
Am
8.1
X
io"10
io"23
Estimated by Stokes-Einstein relation.
^Estimated by Brookins from Oklo data.
350
-------
very high grade (to 70% U by weight) ore in veins of 1 to 2 m thickness.
Most of the fission and other products listed in Table Q-l were produced
14 242 243
during the reactors' lifetime; exceptions are C, Am(?) and Am(?)
isotopes.
The high grade ore at Qklo is a mixture of sooty pitchblende and
well crystallized uraninite; the former may have the approximate formula
4+ 6+
U02 6 (due to some oxidation of U to D requiring excess oxygen) and
the latter near-stoichiometric UO^. Although very high temperature may
have been locally obtained in the reactor ore, the maximum temperature
and pressure close to the reactor zones were on the order of 100°C and
0.5 to 1 Kb(?).
The behavior of radioactive nuclides within host pitchblende* (* here
used to include uraninite as well for simplicity) can be thought of as
being controlled as follows. Fissiogenic or nuclides produced by neutron
capture (i.e., Pu, Np, Am) will or will not be retained in the pitchblende
as a function essentially of crystal chemistry and of host grain stabi-
lity. A typical "grain" of pitchblende at Oklo is usually cracked with
sulfide veins as infillings and the edges of the grains are commonly
corroded.
The actinide elements Th, U and transuranics Np, Pu, Am are all
found under reducing conditions as +4 ions which exhibit a high degree
of solid solution with each other. Similarly, other ions with radii of
approximately one angstrom and z = +3, +4 and electronegativities simi-
lar to U will be relatively stable in sites in the pitchblende. Hence,
the rare earth elements (REE) are almost 100% retained within the pitch-
blende. Elements with higher electronegativites (i.e., chalcophile
elements) may be enriched in the sulfide veinlets. Only those elements
with very different charges and non-chalcophile tendencies will be
expected to be highly metastable in the host pitchblende. Thus, alkali,
alkaline earth and halide elements would be classified as metastable.
One must keep in mind that a direct comparison of the results of
the study of the Oklo Phenomenon [IAEA75] with the experimental studies
leading to the diffusivities in Column 1 of Table Q-l is probably not
justified. The experimental data are obtained under controlled condi-
tions and, more importantly, usually under oxygenated systems. The
351
-------
nuclear reactions at Oklo, on the other hand, occurred under very reduc-
-50
ing conditions, perhaps with P = 10 or so. Under these very
reducing conditions high valence elements which commonly form very solu-
ble metal oxanions {or other complexes) may behave in a completely
different fashion. Thus, Tc and Ru would be predicted from Eh-pH diagrams
2-
to be stable at Oklo as TcS„ or RuS in the reduced S (i.e., S ) field
and as TuO^ or RuO^ in the oxidized S (S ) field; that the Oklo ores
fall near the Eh-pH boundary between reduced and oxidized sulfur is
demonstrated by the presence of both primary pyrite (FeS^) ana hematite
(Fe.,0.) . At Eh values expected in atmospheric-saturated waters, P„ is
2 3 O2
close to 0.2 atm. and Tc and Ru are present as highly soluble TcO^~ and
RuO, ions.
4
The diffusion of any of the fissiogenic nuclides at Oklo can be
thought to be controlled by at least three steps5 (1) solid state
diffusion (by exchange, vacancy, interstitial or interstitialcy mecha-
nisms) , (2) surface diffusion, and (3) grain boundary diffusion; any or
all of which must occur before a species would be free to be transported
by diffusion in an aqueous solution. Thus, a fissiogenic nuclei, M,
may move by (1) to an intergranular site (3) before dissolution occurs.
This sequence of events may be further complicated by armoring and/or
fixation on gangue clay minerals. Hence, an atom of Pb, for example,
would have to move from an original site in the host pitchblende to the
surface of the grain or to an inter-granular site where it would likely
be incorporated into sulfide minerals. From the host sulfide it must
again diffuse to the surface where, in order for dissolution to occur,
entrapment in some MCO^ (or similar) grain must be avoided and the
exchangeable sites on clay minerals filled with high cec atoms. If these
2+
conditions are met, then the Pb atom is free to be transported as Pb
n—
or possibly as PbCl . Chloride complexes at Oklo are not, however,
X
thought to have played a major role.
A very limiting factor at Oklo, and one which is applicable to any
equivalent set of Eh-pH conditions, is that for diffusion in an aqueous
medium to occur, the element must not be incorporated into a compound
stable at those conditions. If such a compound does exist, whether a
CaF^ (i.e., uraninite) structure, sulfide, or other, the proper diffusivity
352
-------
to use is that involving the solid state.
For the nuclides tabulated in Table Q-l, only ^Sr, and ^"^Cs
137 -8 2
Cs are likely to have diffusivities as high as 10 to 10 cm /d.
Even for these nuclides, diffusion studies by Foland, [Fo74] indicate
approximate diffusivities for Rb, Sr (and, by inference, Cs) of 10~16 to
—18 2
10 cm /sec in silicates. Further, data are available [Bo75] suggest-
135 137
ing retention of Cs and Cs for at least 23 million years (m.y.);
135
e.g., about ten times the half life of Cs.
Chalcophile elements such as Pb, Bi, Cd, Mo, In, Sb, Te, Ag, Pd are
-11 2
present in sulfides where typical diffusivities range from 10 cm /s to
-15 2
much lower values, i.e., 10 cm /s [Bc74]; and these values may be 2 to
4 orders of magnitude greater than corresponding diffusivities in oxides.
After possible sulfide grain destruction by local oxidation, then species
2- 2+
such as Mo and Cd as MoO. and Cd respectively, may posses diffusi-
-5 2
vities on the order of 1 - 2 x 10 cm /s, which is in agreement with the
-9 2
10 cm /d diffusivities listed in Table Q-l.
225 226
Radium, as either Ra or Ra, presents a special case. While
oxidation is not a problem with Ra, its solubility is. The gangue at
Oklo contains appreciable sulfate minerals, much of it as barite. Since
the solubility product of RaSo. is less than that for BaSO , then any
2+
barite present would efficiently scavenge any Ra in solution. Thus,
-10 2
while a diffusivity of 717 x 10 cm /d is probably not unrealistic for
the time span between loss of Ra from host pitchblende and incorporation
into sulfates (or adsorbed on clay minerals for that matter), this time
span is, in geologic time sense, infinitesimally small. Ra scavenging
is so effective, for example, that in areas of the Colorado Plateau,
a Ra-rich barite is dubbed "radiobarite;" further, Ra is scavenged during
uranium milling by treating the waste water with BaF^'.BaSO^ which effec-
tively removes Ra as (Ba,Ra)SO^.
14
The case for carbon as C cannot be directly addressed with regard
to Oklo. There is no reason to expect that any carbon species should
have been removed from the reactor zones, however, due to the presence
of large amounts of carbonate minerals (i.e., dolomite, calcite, lesser
amounts of siderite, magnesite) in the gangue. Further, from stable
isotope studies [Sh74], meteoric waters comnonly allow for widespread
353
-------
exchange of oxygen but not for carbon under reducing conditions. Thus,
14
an argument can be made for c retention under the Eh-pH conditions at
Oklo in any other shale site as well.
The above comments suggest that in most cases the diffusivities for
the species listed in Table Q-l used by themselves for migration calcu-
lations are too high by many orders of magnitude. Only under oxygen
saturated conditions would diffusivities on the order or 10 to 10
cm^/d be met; for 129j and possibly for ^"^Cs, ^^Cs and ^°Sr, the diffu-
sivities of Table Q-l might also be applicable—but only under the un-
likely conditions of absence of carbonates and/or clay minerals. The
lithophile elements, Y, Zr, Nb, Th, Np, Pu, Am will possess diffusivities
- 20 2
on the order of 10 (or less) cm /s in oxide or hydroxide or silicate
phases and thus, be unlikely to migrate. The chalcophile elements, Tc,
Pc will possess higher diffusivities due to greater ease for diffusion
in sulfides relative to oxides or silicates, but even these values will
-15 2 2
be on the order of 10 cm /s. When.converted to units of cm /d, then
— 3
the above V values decrease by at least 10 . The more realistic V values
estimated here are listed as column 2 in Table Q-l.
It should be noted that while the discovery of a natural fission
reaction at Oklo is unique, the host rocks are very common. Collectively,
the data argue for the feasibility for shale as a waste repository under
reducing conditions similar to those at Oklo.
K, VALUES
d
The K values (Table Q-2), like the diffusivities (Table Q-l), are
d
subject to large uncertainties due to the assumptions of (1) soil type,
(2) oxidation potential, and (3) pH. Extrapolation from the Oklo
environment (see earlier discussion) to the "U. S. Western Soil" and for
experimental data taken under high Eh, acid pH conditions are not appli-
cable to Oklo. However, if one uses the Column 1, Table Q-2, K, value
d
for Th isotopes as a reference, then the Oklo "K.1 s" can be estimated.
a
This has been done using the Eh-pH arguments, geochemical considerations
[Hf74], and geologic constraints discussed earlier and in IAEA proceed-
ings [IAEA75].
354
-------
Table Q-2. Estimated K Values
Q
Nuclide
3/
Kd, cm /g
Column
la
Column 2^
14
c
2
200
90_
Sr
20
200
90
Y
2000
10000
93
Zr
2000
10000
93
Nb
2000
10000
99
Tc
0
1000
129l
0
0C?)
135,137
Cs
200
200
21Qt.
Pb
4000
5000
225,226
Ra
100
5000
229,230Th
15000
15000
237,239^
15
10000
238,239,240,241^
2000
15000
241,242,243
Am
2000
15000
Estimated for "Western Desert Soil."
Estimated by Brookins from Oklo data.
355
-------
3
The species assigned values of 15000 cm /g {Th, Pu, Am) are those
exhibiting wide stability fields for solid species under the Eh-pH con-
ditions for Oklo. For those in the 10000 range {Zr, Y, Nb, Np) either
lower pH or higher Eh might allow an aqueous species to be encountered;
this probability is considered less than 1/3 and hence the value shown
is chosen. Similarly, those in the 5000 range (Pb, Ra) are stable in
sulfide or sulfate species which are more disseminated than the Zr, Y,
Nb, Np possible species. Tc is assigned a value of 1000 because of
weakly chalcophile tendencies and some evidence for local redistribution
at Oklo. Yet it is retained. Species in the 200 range include C, Sr,
Cs which (for Cs and Sr at least) have migrated although probably on a
local scale. Mixing with gangue to an uncertain degree is noted. Fixa-
tion of Cs and Sr on clay minerals has been demonstrated. Only for
iodine is a value of 0 assigned as daughter Xe may be totally missing
from Oklo samples (note; this point is not resolved, however),
The same final comment as for diffusivities can be made when compar-
ing the values of Columns 1 and 2. The Oklo uranium deposit occurs
in a rather poor quality, yet not a typical, shale. Retention of the
nuclides for which values have been assigned is based on predictions
from Eh-pH diagrams coupled with geoehemical-geologic constraints,
including knowledge of mineralogy. For shales at a depth of 500 meters
or so in the pH range of 7 to 8.5 and in which buffering by argillaceous
(and sulfate-bearing) carbonates in the presence of sulfides, the K,
a
values of Column 2, normalized to Th - 15000, may be more applicable
than those of Column 1.
356
-------
GLOSSARY
damages
diapir
diatreme
distribution
coefficient
(Xd>
the value of adverse or unwanted effects measured
in economic units, usually dollars. Total damages
are a summation over causes and time; marginal damages
are total damages divided by a reference production
quantity,
a mobile core such as salt which moves upward
injecting into the more brittle overlying rock.
a volcanic vent or pipe, typically less than 1000 m
in diameter, drilled through enclosing rocks by the
explosive energy of gas-charged magmas (mobile,
possibly molten, rock material).
a sorption parameter relating amount of material
sorbed on solid material and amount remaining in
solution.
dose
dose rate
health effect
leach incident
"committed dose equivalent" is sometimes referred to
here as simply "dose." Dose equivalent is the pro-
duct of the absorbed dose from radioactivity and the
quality factor, loosely called biological dose,
expressed in units of rem or millirem (mrem).
Committed dose is the sum of future dose accrual
(generally over 50 y) resulting from a radioactivity
intake. Dose expressed in man-rems is the sum of dose
to individuals in a given population.
the rate at which dose (committed dose equivalent)
accrues following an intake or during exposure to an
external source. Where an intake rate is also
involved, reference is made here to "dose committment
rate" (committed dose equivalent rate).
an unwanted health effect such as leukemia, a cancer,
or serious genetic effect, equatable to a death for
damage estimation purposes.
a combination of events that introduces circulating
ground water to the waste inventory and starts dis-
solving waste components. Time delays for the leach
process and migration via ground water flow retard
the environmental effects.
local dose
committed dose equivalent to individuals located in a
given geographic zone, in mrem.
357
-------
nonspecific dose
nuclide
offset faulting
probabilistic
radionuclide
release
re suspension
risk
sorption
volcanict
volcanism
voIconic
exp losion
volcanogenic
transport
committed dose equivalent to an undefined population
from consumption of largely exported agricultural
products, in man-rem.
a nuclear species characterized by the number of
neutrons and protons in the nucleus. Used here at
times in lieu of the more descriptive term: radio-
nuclide.
movement producing relative displacement of adjacent
rock masses along a fracture and resulting in a
separation or gap.
based on probability, which is the number of times
something will probably occur in a given amount of
time. The probabilistic mode refers to operations
with probabilities included in the calculations.
a nuclide which is unstable or radioactive.
a breach of containment which allows radioactive
material to migrate through the geosphere. A release
may or may not be directly to the biosphere.
the process of material deposited onto land surface
being picked up by wind action and resuspended.
The product of probability of occurrence of an event
and the consequences of an occurrence. As used in
economics, risk refers to the chance of damage or
loss.
an overall term referring to retention of a species
on a solid by any of several processes such as
absorption, adsorption, and ion exchange.
adjective and noun, respectively, pertaining to
natural processes resulting in the formation of
volcanoes or lava flows.
a violent explosive form of volcano ejecting material
into the atmosphere.
non-explosive carrying of material by any of three
mechanisms: magma transport, volatile transport,
or hydrothermal train sport.
358
-------
VOLUME II
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