rnA EPA/600/R-17/281 I September 2017 I www.epa.gov
ObrA
United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
EPA Region 10 Climate Change and
TMDL Pilot - South Fork Nooksack
River, Washington
Final Project Report
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EPA Region 10 Climate Change
and TMDL Pilot—South Fork
Nooksack River, Washington
Final Project Report
Final: September 2017
E PA/600/R-17/281
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Final Project Report
EPA Region 10 Climate Change and TMDL Pilot -
South Fork Nooksack River, Washington
Prepared by:
Steve Klein1
Hope Herron2
Jonathan Butcher2
1 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development - Corvallis, OR
2 Tetra Tech, Inc. - Fairfax, VA
Preferred Citation:
USEPA (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency). 2016. Final Project Report: EPA Region 10 Climate
Change and TMDL Pilot—South Fork Nooksack River, Washington. EPA/600/R-17/281. U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency, National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory,
Western Ecology Division, Corvallis, OR.
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Foreword
Region 10 of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and EPA's Office of Water and
Office of Research and Development launched a pilot research project to explore how projected
climate change impacts could be considered in the implementation of a Clean Water Act
(C WA) 303(d) temperature total maximum daily load and how they might influence restoration
actions in an Endangered Species Act (ESA) salmonid recovery plan. The pilot research project
used a temperature TMDL developed by the Washington State Department of Ecology for the
South Fork Nooksack River (South Fork) as the pilot TMDL for climate change vulnerability
analysis. An overarching objective of the pilot research project was to support the goals and
priorities of EPA's climate adaptation plans.
A range of projected climate change impacts from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change emissions scenarios was evaluated as a risk assessment to thoroughly consider plausible
futures of potential impacts to salmonids.
The project consists of two separate research assessments:
The qualitative assessment is a comprehensive analysis of freshwater habitat for ESA salmon
restoration in the South Fork under climate change (EPA 2016). The objective of the qualitative
assessment was to identify and prioritize climate change adaptation strategies or recovery
actions for the South Fork that explicitly include climate change as a risk.
The quantitative assessment provides a comparison of OUAL2Kw-modeled stream
temperatures, including riparian shading, with and without climate change for the 2020s,
2040s, and 2080s (Butcher et al. 2016). A range of projected climate change impacts from a
high-, medium-, and low-impact scenario was analyzed for each time period. This assessment
discusses and considers the relevant C WA water quality standards developed to protect
beneficial uses, including cold-water fisheries.
Together, these two assessments identify comprehensive actions to protect CWA beneficial
uses (salmon habitat) and ESA recovery goals under potential climate change.
This final report provides an overarching summary of the pilot research project, including the
methods used in and the findings of the quantitative and qualitative assessments.
Stakeholder outreach and tribal engagement was considered a critical element of the pilot
research project. Workshops, webinars, and working interdisciplinary teams have been used
throughout the life of this project. The result is actionable science that, with the participation
of scientists, environmental practitioners, and decision makers, supports the coproduction of
knowledge for climate change adaptation.
Foreword by
One EPA Team:
EPA Region 10
EPA Office of Water
EPA Office of Research and Development
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Abstract - Final Project Report
This final report provides an overarching summary of the EPA Region 10 Climate Change and
TMDL Pilot for the South Fork Nooksack River, Washington (pilot research project), including
the methods and findings of the quantitative and qualitative assessments. The quantitative
and qualitative assessments serve as the technical research reports developed for the pilot
research project, while this final report summarizes the overarching approach and conclusions
of the project. It is written to appeal to a wide audience of policy makers, managers, agency
staff and the general public.
The South Fork Nooksack River (South Fork) is located in northwest Washington State and
is home to nine species of Pacific salmon, including Nooksack early Chinook (aka, spring
Chinook salmon), an iconic species for the Nooksack Indian Tribe. The quantity of salmon in
the South Fork, especially spring Chinook salmon, has dramatically declined from historic
levels, due primarily to habitat degradation from the legacy impacts of various land uses
such as commercial forestry, agriculture, flood control, and transportation infrastructure.
The Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) program, established by the Clean Water Act, is
used to establish limits on loading of pollutants from point and nonpoint sources necessary
to achieve water quality standards. One important use of a temperature TMDL is to allocate
thermal loads to achieve water temperature criteria established for the protection of cold water
fisheries. The pollutant in this case is thermal load and allocations to reduce the load often
involve restoration of stream shading, which reduces the solar input. While many temperature
TMDLs have been established, the supporting analyses have generally assumed a stationary
climate under which historical data on flow and air temperature can serve as an adequate
guide to future conditions. Projected changes in climate over the 21st century contradict this
assumption. Air temperature is expected to increase in most parts of the US, accompanied
in many areas by seasonal shifts in the timing and amount of precipitation, which in turn
will alter stream flow. We reran the OUAL2Kw model for future climate conditions (multiple
climate models for the 2020s, 2040s, and 2080s) using gridded downscaled climate data and
hydrologic model runoff predictions developed by the Climate Impacts Group at the University
of Washington to modify the critical conditions inputs using a change factor approach
(presented in detail in the quantitative assessment). Establishing a mature riparian forest
canopy can take 100 years, so it is important to begin planting riparian buffers now to reduce
the anticipated climate change impacts on water temperature. Protection and restoration of
local cold water refuges is another important adaptation strategy to mitigate the effects of
climate change on aquatic life during high temperature events.
High water temperatures in the South Fork are detrimental to fish and other native species
that depend on cool, clean, well-oxygenated water. Of the nine salmon species, three have
been listed as threatened under the federal Endangered Species Act (ESA) and are of high
priority to restoration efforts in the South Fork—spring Chinook salmon, summer steelhead
trout, and bull trout. Growing evidence shows that climate change will exacerbate legacy
impacts. As part of the pilot research project, a comprehensive analysis of climate change
impacts on freshwater habitat and Pacific salmon in the South Fork was conducted (presented
in detail in the qualitative assessment). The objective of the assessment is to identify and
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prioritize climate change adaptation strategies or recovery actions for the South Fork that
explicitly include climate change as a risk. The Beechie method (Beechie et al. 2013), with
some adaptation to the South Fork watershed, was used to provide a systematic, stepwise
approach to analyzing climate change impacts in the South Fork, including evaluation by
climate risk (focusing on temperature, hydrologic, and sediment regimes), per salmonid
species (emphasizing ESA-listed species), and per restoration action. We found that the
most important actions to implement to ameliorate the impacts of climate change in the
South Fork watershed are riparian restoration, floodplain reconnection, wetland restoration,
and placement of log jams. Most of these actions are already being implemented to varying
degrees, but the pace and scale of implementation will need to be increased by explicitly
addressing barriers to implementation. This will require substantial planning including a
watershed conservation plan, project feasibility assessments, agency consultation, landowner
cooperation, stakeholder involvement, and funding.
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Climate Change Pilot Project for the South Fork Nooksack River, Washington
Contents
Abbreviations and Acronyms iii
Acknowledgements v
Executive Summary vii
1.0 Introduction 1
2.0 Goals and Objectives 5
3.0 Problem Formulation 7
3.1 Pilot Area 8
3.2 Risk Assessment Framework 10
4.0 Research Approach 13
4.1 Parallel Study Strategy 13
4.2 Methods 14
4.2.1 Quality Assurance 16
4.2.2 Quantitative Assessment Methods 16
Watershed Modeling 18
Climate Change Modeling 19
4.2.3 Qualitative Assessment Methods 21
Defining the Geographic Scale of Analysis 23
Identifying Impacts by Climate Risk 2 3
Evaluating Impacts per Salmonid Species 24
Evaluating Impacts per Salmon Restoration Action 24
5.0 Stakeholder and Tribal Engagement 25
5.1 Stakeholder Identification 25
5.2 Stakeholder Organization 26
Project Sponsorship and Contract Support 27
Core Interdisciplinary Team 27
Virtual Interdisciplinary Team 28
Relationship with WRIA-1 29
5.3 Stakeholder Engagement Platforms and Activities 30
In-Person Meetings 30
Webinars 33
Internal EPA Coordination and One EPA Team Activities 34
External Awareness-Building: Websites, Conferences, and Presentations 35
6.0 Results 37
6.1 Quantitative Assessment Modeling Results 37
Additional Effects from Climate Change 40
6.2 Qualitative Assessment Results 41
7.0 Discussion 49
8.0 Conclusions 55
9.0 References 59
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Climate Change Pilot Project for the South Fork Nooksack River, Washington
Abbreviations and Acronyms
7-DADMax highest 7-day average of the daily maximum temperatures
7010 flow 7-day average flow with a 10-year recurrence frequency
702 flow 7-day average flow with a 2-year recurrence frequency
CIDT Core Interdisciplinary Team
CIG Climate Impacts Group
CREP Conservation Reserve Enhancement Program
CWA Clean Water Act
Ecology Washington State Department of Ecology
EPA U. S. Environmental Protection Agency
ESA Endangered Species Act
ESU evolutionarily significant unit
GCM global climate model
in inches
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
ORD EPA Office of Research and Development
OW EPA Office of Water
PNW Pacific Northwest
0UAL2 Kw Washington version of a river and stream water quality model (OUAL2 K)
that is in turn a modernized version of EPA's older OUAL2E model
RM river mile
SPV system potential vegetation
TMDL total maximum daily load
USFS U.S. Forest Service
VIDT Virtual Interdisciplinary Team
WDNR Washington State Department of Natural Resources
WOS water quality standards
WRIA water resource inventory area
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Climate Change Pilot Project for the South Fork Nooksack River, Washington
Acknowledgements
We acknowledge and thank the Core Interdisciplinary Team (CIDT) that was formed to support
the pilot research project effort. CIDT team members include members of the Nooksack
Indian Tribe: Oliver Grah, water resources program manager; Treva Coe, habitat program
manager; Mike Maudlin, forest and fish specialist/geomorphologist; Ned Currence, fisheries/
resource protection program manager; and Jezra Beaulieu, water resources specialist; Steve
Klein, project leader, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Office of Research and
Development (ORD); Jon Butcher, principal hydrologist, Tetra Tech; Hope Herron, climate
change specialist, Tetra Tech; and Tim Beechie, supervisory research fish biologist, National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Fisheries, who served as technical advisor.
We also want to acknowledge and thank the Peer Reviewers (Bruce Duncan, EPA Region 10;
Karen Metchis, EPA Office of Water; Paul Pickett, Washington Deptartment of Ecology, and;
Jim Markwiese, EPA Quality Assurance Officer) of this report for their insightful comments
and suggestions that resulted in an improved product.
Lastly, we want to acknowledge and thank the Virtual Interdisciplinary Team (VIDT) for
continued involvement and helpful comments during the life of this project. Members of the
VIDT include representatives from EPA Region 10, the Washington Department of Ecology,
EPA ORD, the Lummi Nation, and Water Resource Inventory Area 1 salmon recovery and
watershed management staff teams, as well as attendees from the project stakeholder
workshops: the Restoring Salmon Habitat for a Changing Climate In the South Fork Nooksack
River; WA workshop (Seattle, Washington, June 2012) and the EPA Region 10 Climate Change
and TMDL Pilot workshop (Bellingham, Washington, January 22 and 23, 2013), which was
cosponsored by EPA and the Nooksack Indian Tribe.
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Executive Summary
The South Fork Nooksack River (South Fork) is located in northwest
Washington State and is home to nine species of Pacific salmon, including
the Nooksack early Chinook, an iconic species for the Nooksack Indian
Tribe. Water temperature is critical to the health of salmon populations:
They depend on cool, clean, well-oxygenated water for survival. The
South Fork watershed currently is considered to be impaired by high water
temperatures. As in most watersheds in the Pacific Northwest (PNW),
the original conditions in the South Fork have been modified by human
activity. Logging and conversion of native habitat for agriculture have
greatly reduced riparian shading from its natural condition. As a result
of the rising water temperatures, abundances of Nooksack salmon have
dramatically declined from historic levels.
Global climate change will exacerbate the current stresses facing salmon in
the PNW. Its effects have the potential to significantly impact freshwater
ecosystems through changes in both the thermal and hydrological regimes.
The anticipated impacts of climate change combined with the historic
legacy impacts in the South Fork represent significant cumulative stressors
for salmon species in the river.
To better understand the potential effect of climate change on achieving
water quality and salmon recovery goals, the U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency's (EPA's) Region 10, Office of Research and
Development, and Office of Water; the Washington Department of
Ecology; the Nooksack Indian Tribe; and the Lummi Nation launched the
The Nooksack Indian
Tribe relies on salmon
for subsistence,
commercial cultural,
and ceremonial
purposes
-Oliver Grah, Water Resources
Program Manager,
Nooksack Indian Tribe
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Mount Baker, northeast of South Fork Nooksack River fn Bellingham, WA. Credit: Rick Leche, Flckr.com
Science in Action: Innovative Research for a Sustainable Future
collaborative EPA Region 10 Climate Change and TMDL Pilot for the South
Fork Nooksack River, Washington (pilot research project).
The overarching goal of the pilot research project was to further EPA's
understanding of how to incorporate projected climate change impacts
into a total maximum daily load (TMDL) implementation plan, using
the temperature TMDL developed for the South Fork as a pilot study.
The TMDL program is one of the primary frameworks for maintaining
and achieving healthy waterbodies nationwide, implemented pursuant
to section 303(d) of the Clean Water Act. Additionally, the collaborative
framework and coordinated research components conducted as part of
the pilot research project provided the opportunity to move beyond the
regulatory goal of the South Fork temperature TMDL and synergistically
explore how climate change might influence salmon recovery actions and
restoration plans prepared in the context of the Endangered Species Act.
The pilot research project was structured into two research components—a
quantitative assessment and a qualitative assessment—and relied on
stakeholder engagement as a fundamental, cross-cutting element. The
stakeholder-centric element benefited from the participation of both
Climate Change Pilot Project for the South Fork Nooksack River, Washington
Executive Summary
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oOKS^v
Climate Change Pilot Project for the South Fork Nooksack River, Washington
Executive Summary
Science in Action: Innovative Research for a Sustainable Future
knowledgeable scientists and informed laypeople, and included several
stakeholder involvement events (i.e., 10 workshops, meetings, and webinars).
The quantitative assessment evaluates the implications of climate change
for the water temperature TMDL developed for the South Fork, using
best available climate science (Butcher et al. 2016). This assessment used
quantitative methods (e.g., the OUAL2Kw water quality model) to project
future temperatures in the South Fork. It compares modeled stream
temperatures to the state's cold-water temperature water quality standard
to inform the TMDL implementation plan.
Results from the quantitative assessment show that the risk of higher water
temperatures will accelerate over time (Butcher et al. 2016). Predicted
increases in heat inputs and lower summer flows associated with a
reduction in the storage of winter snowpack will combine to exacerbate
summer water temperature extremes under low-flow critical conditions.
The OUALK2w model simulations suggest that, without restoration of
riparian shade, water temperatures during critical summer low-flow
conditions could increase by amounts ranging from 3.5 to almost 6 degrees
Celsius by the 2080s. Restoration of full system potential riparian shading
can help buffer against temperature increases and mitigate from 30 to 60
percent of the critical period increase; however, even with system potential
shade, average stream water temperatures are projected to increase.
The qualitative assessment was conducted to consider important habitat
features other than riparian shading that also can affect salmon recovery
(EPA 2016). This assessment is a comprehensive analysis of climate change
impacts on freshwater habitat and Pacific salmon in the South Fork, and an
evaluation of the effectiveness of
restoration tools. While including
the findings of the quantitative
assessment, the qualitative
assessment used local and tribal
knowledge of the Nooksack Indian
Tribe to identify and prioritize
climate change adaptation
strategies.
The qualitative assessment found
that climate change impacts
on temperature, hydrologic,
and sediment regimes could
profoundly affect the distribution,
life history periodicity, survival,
and productivity of salmonids
in the South Fork (EPA 2016).
Female Chinook salmon. Credit: U.S. Geological Survey, Department of
the Interior/USGS, U.S. Geological Survey/photo by Jeff Duda
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Climate Change Pilot Project for the South Fork Nooksack River, Washington
Executive Summary
Climate impacts will extend through the year, from reduced discharge
in spring to increased temperatures and reduced base flows in summer
to increased peak flows in winter, rendering all salmon species and life
stages vulnerable. The assessment results show that the most important
actions to take in ameliorating the impacts of climate change in the South
Fork watershed are riparian restoration, floodplain reconnection, wetland
restoration, and placement of log jams.
Bulltrout. Credit: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
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Climate Change Pilot Project for the South Fork Nooksack River, Washington
1.0 Introduction
Salmon are an integral component of the ecosystem and culture of the
Pacific Northwest (PNW). In fact, salmon are considered an ecological
keystone species1 because of the benefit they provide to aquatic and
terrestrial ecosystems as well as a cultural keystone species2 given their role
in the cultural identity of the coastal PNW indigenous tribes (Hilderbrand
et al. 2004; Garibaldi and Turner 2004).
The South Fork Nooksack River (South Fork) is located in northwest
Washington State (Figure 1-1) and is home to nine species of Pacific
salmon, including the Nooksack early
Chinook (also referred to as spring
Chinook salmon), an iconic species for
the Nooksack Indian Tribe.
Abundances of Nooksack salmon have
dramatically declined from historic
levels. Estimates of historical habitat
conditions suggest that the South Fork
supported approximately 13,000
Chinook salmon (habitat model-based
estimate) (WRIA 1 2005). During 2011
through 2013, the average escapement
estimate for Nooksack early Chinook
was only 70 salmon (Washington
Department of Fish and Wildlife 2014).
Sudden
Valley
Whatcom
Wiialuuiii Cuunly
Skagit County
South Fork Nooksack River Watershed
Figure 1-1. Map of the South Fork Nooksack River watershed.
Water temperature is critical to
the health of salmon populations:
They depend on cool, clean, well-oxygenated water for survival. As with
most watersheds in the PNW, the original conditions in the South Fork
have been modified by human activity. Logging and conversion of native
habitat for agriculture have greatly reduced riparian shading from its
natural condition. Diminishing snowpack due to climate change also has
contributed to rising water temperatures. The South Fork watershed is
currently considered to be impaired by high water temperatures, which can
be detrimental to salmon.3
1 As further described in Hilderbrand et al. (2004V salmon significantly contribute to nutrient
flow across aquatic ecosystems and are of nutritional importance to wildlife.
2 Cultural keystone species are the "plants and animals that form the contextual underpinnings
of a culture, as reflected in their fundamental roles in diet, as materials, or in medicine" (Garibaldi
and Turner 2004).
3 Every two years, states are required to prepare a list of water bodies that do not meet water
quality standards. This list is called the Clean Water Act 303(d) list. In Washington State, this list
is part of the Water Quality Assessment (WOA) process. Further information is available at the
Washington Department of Ecology's Water Quality Assessment website: here.
Key Message from the Third
National Climate Assessment
for the Pacific Northwest:
"Changes in the timing of
stream flow related to changing
snowmelt are already observed
and will continue, reducing
the supply of water for many
competing demands and causing
far-reaching ecological and
socioeconomic consequences."
Mote et al. 2014
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2
Climate Change Pilot Project for the South Fork Nooksack River, Washington
Introduction
Early South Fork Nooksack River. Credit: Nooksack Tribe
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What is a TMDL?
A total maximum daily load (TMDL)
is a calculation of the maximum
amount of a pollutant that a
waterbody can receive and still
meet water quality standards.
That pollutant load is allocated
among the various sources. The
pollutant for the South Fork
Nooksack River is temperature.
Global climate change will exacerbate the current stresses facing salmon
in the PN W. It has the potential to significantly impact freshwater
ecosystems through changes in both the thermal and hydrological
regimes. Stream temperatures are projected to increase in most rivers,
influenced by rising air temperatures. Changes in hydrology—particularly
a reduction in summer flows resulting from a shift from a snow-dominant
to a rain-dominant regime—could diminish river volumes and lead to
higher temperatures. The anticipated impacts of climate change combined
with the historic legacy impacts in the South Fork represent significant
cumulative stressors for salmon species in the river.
Clearly, there is a need for watershed managers and stakeholders to
consider climate-induced changes that are currently affecting water
quality in the South Fork and to plan for future scenarios. To date, however,
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Climate Change Pilot Project for the South Fork Nooksack River, Washington
Introduction
Nooksack River, Whatcom County. Credit: John Lemfeux, Flfckr.com
Science in Action: Innovative Research for a Sustainable Future
climate change has not been addressed in the watershed management tools
and strategies used to govern the South Fork watershed.
Indeed, the potential impacts of climate change represent a knowledge gap
for water resource managers across the country. The total maximum daily
load (TMDL) program is one of the primary frameworks for maintaining
and achieving healthy waterbodies nationwide, implemented pursuant to
section 303(d) of the Clean Water Act (C WA). A TMDL is developed for an
impaired waterbody to determine the maximum pollutant loads allowable
that will still permit attainment of water quality standards (WOS) and
describes the measures that must be taken to reduce pollution levels in
the waterbody. While more than 40,000 TMDLs have been developed in
the United States, the vast majority of them have been developed with no
consideration being given to climate change (EPA 2017).
Similarly, climate change is of increasing concern in the context of the
Endangered Species Act (ESA). While Congress has urged the U.S. Fish
and Wildlife Service and NOAA Fisheries
to consider the potential effects of climate
change on species, no established methodology
exists for conducting that analysis (Webb and
Weissman 2014).4
To help better understand the potential impact
of climate change on achieving water quality
and salmon recovery goals, the EPA Region 10,
Office of Research and Development (ORD),
Office of Water (OW), Washington Department
of Ecology (Ecology), Nooksack I ndian
Tribe, and the Lummi Nation launched the
Chinook Salmon (juvenile) Credit: USFWS
4 NOAA recently published eight research case studies on considering climate change in ESA,
which are summarized on NOAA's website, A Changing Climate for Endangered Species (2016),
available online here. The eight research case studies were published in Conservation Biology and
are available online here.
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Climate Change Pilot Project for the South Fork Nooksack River, Washington
Introduction
collaborative EPA Region 10 Climate Change and TMDL Pilot for the South
Fork Nooksack River, Washington (pilot research project).
This report will summarize the key activities and findings of the pilot
research project and is organized into the following sections:
Section 2: Goals and Objectives
Section 3: Problem Formulation
Section 4: Research Approach
Section 5: Stakeholder and Tribal Engagement
Section 6: Results
Section 7: Discussion
Section 8: Conclusions
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Climate Change Pilot Project for the South Fork Nooksack River, Washington
5
2.0 Goals and Objectives
The overarching goal of the pilot research project was to further EPA's
understanding of how to address projected climate change impacts in a
TMDL implementation plan, using the temperature TMDL developed for
the South Fork as a pilot study. Additionally, the collaborative framework
and coordinated research components conducted as part of the project
provided the opportunity to move beyond the regulatory goal of the South
Fork temperature TMDL implementation plan to also determine how
climate change might influence ESA recovery actions and restoration plans.
The pilot research project was
initiated to better understand
the impacts that climate change
might have on the South Fork and
to explore how to integrate that
understanding into watershed
management tools and strategies.
The pilot research project was designed as objective-driven research5, in
which objectives are established to serve as project goals, rather than
hypo thesis-driven research, in which a hypothesis is created and subjected
to empirical testing. In objective-driven research, objectives aimed at
scientific and/or technological advances are defined to guide research and
used as benchmarks of progress.
Specific focus was given to the
total maximum daily load (TMDL)
program, specifically the TMDL
implementation planning process,
and salmon recovery planning
under the ESA.
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Five key objectives were identified to guide project outcomes and include
the following:
¦ Assess the potential impacts of climate change on stream
temperature and stream flow for a temperature TMDL
implementation plan.
¦ Prioritize stream restoration actions under climate change for ESA
salmon recovery planning.
¦ Guide implementation of EPA's National Water Program 2012
Strategy: Response to Climate Change.
5 There is no formal research theory around "objective-driven
research" although it is a generally accepted method of developing
a research project. An interesting description of objective-driven
research being used to drive integrated thinking is found in
Provisions for Implementing Integrated Projects (European Research
2002), available online here.
NOAA Biologist with Chinook Salmon. Credit: NOAA
Support EPA's National Tribal Science
Priorities for Climate Change and Integration
of Traditional Ecological Knowledge.
Internal to EPA: Demonstrate how parts of
EPA, the regions, program office, OW, and
ORD can jointly engage in the planning,
execution, and evaluation of a pilot research
project.
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Climate Change Pilot Project for the South Fork Nooksack River, Washington
3.0 Problem Formulation
Climate change has the potential to significantly impact the nation's
freshwater ecosystems. No agreed-upon methodologies or approaches exist,
however, to incorporate climate change considerations into watershed
management planning tools such as the TMDL implementation planning esA Salmon Recovery Planning
process and ESA salmon recovery planning program. This project was first
conceived as a pilot project in 2011 by EPA ORD and EPA Region 10 to assess The ESA requires NOAA Fisheries
how adaptation to climate change could be incorporated into the TMDL and states to develop and
program, specifically into the TMDL implementation planning process. i mplement recovery plans for
salmon species listed under the
At that time, EPA Region 10, Ecology, the Nooksack Indian Tribe, and Act. Recovery plans identify
the Lummi Nation also began collaborating on the development of a actions needed to restore
temperature TMDL for the South Fork. The South Fork has 14 mainstem threatened and endangered
segments and nine tributary segments identified as being impaired for species to the point at which they
temperature on Washington's 2008 303(d) list. These areas exceed the are again self-sustaining elements
temperature criteria established by Ecology to protect aquatic life use of their ecosystems and no longer
categories (salmon versus warm-water species) and life-stage conditions need protection.
(spawning and rearing). The collaborating partners on the South Fork
temperature TMDL expressed independent interest in better understanding
how climate change might impact water temperature in the future and
influence the TMDL implementation plan.
EPA developed the concept of using a parallel study strategy to concurrently
accomplish the research objective of exploring how climate change
considerations could be incorporated into the TMDL implementation plan,
with the regulatory objective of developing the South Fork temperature
TMDL. This parallel study strategy allows EPA to learn by doing. The
project team for the pilot research project expanded from EPA ORD, EPA
Region 10, EPA OW, and EPA's consultant (TetraTech) to include Ecology,
the Nooksack Indian Tribe, and the Lummi Nation as cooperating partners.
The project team recognized that appropriate problem formulation was
key to achieving both the research and regulatory objectives; and that
stakeholder input would be critical to developing meaningful goals and
activities. The pilot research project was launched by EPA Region 10 in a
workshop held on June 25, 2012, in Seattle, Washington. The objective of
the workshop was to solicit input from key stakeholders on the project's
scope, approach, and methods.
At the workshop, stakeholders clearly demonstrated that important
linkages exist between the TMDL implementation plan and ESA salmon
recovery planning processes. There was a general recommendation to
structure the pilot research project in such a way that it would mutually
enforce both of these watershed management planning tools for the South
Fork. Thus, the pilot project design was expanded to consider not only
Science in Action: Innovative Research for a Sustainable Future
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Climate Change Pilot Project for the South Fork Nooksack River, Washington
Problem Formulation
how awareness of projected climate change impacts could be incorporated
into the South Fork temperature TMDL implementation plan, but also
how those impacts might influence restoration actions and plans for the
South Fork.
Science and Policy Integration
CWA, BOB(d)
TMDL Beneficial
Uses
ESA, Salmon
Recovery
Planning
Climate Science
Programs, USGCRP
The pilot research project
represents the integration of three
key environmental
management programs.
Stakeholders also recognized that simply assessing changes
in temperature relevant to WOS would not provide a robust
assessment of habitat factors that influence salmon. Local and
tribal knowledge was identified as a critical element to assess,
identify, and ultimately implement site-appropriate adaptation
strategies.
Based on this feedback, the pilot research project was formulated
to integrate three key management programs: CWA section
303(d), which provided the science and policy context; the ESA
salmon recovery goals, which are integral to achieving both
salmon recovery and attaining the beneficial uses under the
CWA; and the latest climate science out of the U.S. Global Change
Research Program (USGCRP). To support this programmatic
framework and achieve the project goals and objectives, the
pilot research project was designed to include two primary
assessments:
USGCRP Climate
Science Programs
The U.S. Global Change Research
Program (USGCRP) is a federal
program that coordinates and
integrates global change research
across 13 government agencies
to ensure that it most effectively
and efficiently serves the nation
and the world. Refer to
www.globalchange.gov/
¦ Quantitative Assessment—to evaluate the implications of
climate change for the water temperature TMDL implementation
plan developed for the South Fork, using best available climate
science (Butcher et al. 2016). This assessment used quantitative
methods (e.g., the OUAL2Kw water quality model) to estimate future
temperatures of the South Fork.
¦ Qualitative Assessment—a comprehensive analysis of climate
change impacts on freshwater habitat and Pacific salmon in the
South Fork, and an evaluation of the effectiveness of restoration
tools (EPA 2016). While including the findings of the quantitative
assessment, the qualitative assessment used local and tribal
knowledge of the Nooksack Indian Tribe to identify and prioritize
climate change adaptation strategies.
3.1 Pilot Area
The South Fork was identified as the pilot area for this research effort
primarily because of the interest expressed by the Nooksack Indian Tribe
and Lummi Nation to consider climate change in the temperature TMDL
implementation plan for the South Fork.
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Climate Change Pilot Project for the South Fork Nooksack River, Washington
Problem Formulation
9
The pilot area includes all portions of the South Fork Nooksack River
watershed, which is located in Whatcom and Skagit counties in northwest
Washington State (Figure 3-1). The river flows to the mainstem Nooksack
River, which empties into Bellingham Bay. The South Fork is in an area
considered typical of the mountainous, remote, forested landscape in that
region, with minor urban and agricultural land uses. Forest practices,
including road building and timber harvest, are the dominant land-use
practices in the watershed.
The South Fork and its tributaries provide migration routes, and spawning
and rearing habitat for nine salmon species throughout the year. Salmon
in the Nooksack River watershed are of great subsistence, ceremonial,
and cultural importance to the Lummi Nation and Nooksack Indian
Tribe, yet abundances of many salmonid populations have diminished
substantially from historic levels. Local spring Chinook, bull trout, and
steelhead populations comprise components of the Puget Sound Chinook
Evolutionarily Significant Unit (ESU), Puget Sound Steelhead ESU, and
Coastal-Puget Sound Distinct Population Segment (DPS), all of which are
listed as threatened under the federal ESA.
At the June 2012 kick-off meeting, the following benefits of using the South
Fork as the pilot area for the pilot research project were identified:
The synchronized pairing of the research project with a real-
world temperature TMDL implementation plan ensures better
understanding of the needs of water managers.
The pilot area represents a
typical landscape in the PNW,
which promotes broader direct
application of the project results.
The pilot research project will
be able to leverage downscaled
climate data sets and integrate
ongoing research by other
agencies that is directly relevant
to the project (see text box on the
following page).
Stakeholder desire (Lummi
Nation and Nooksack Indian
Tribe) was strong to collaborate
on a climate change study
that also informs ESA salmon
recovery planning.
Legend
I I Watershed Bcunaary
| Count. Boundar<
Skayil cyunry
Major Ro»
—inpaiietJ Segmenl (Teroeisture 2006/
Aquatic lite Use Designations (Temp. StandafO)
C<*e Summer Safcr.onld Habit* (1§®CJ
—Char Spawnng and Rearing (12°C)
Suulh FoiK Nouksauk River Impaired Segments
Figure 3-1. Map of the pilot area with temperature-impaired stream
segments in red.
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Climate Change Pilot Project for the South Fork Nooksack River, Washington
Problem Formulation
Ability to Leverage Notable
Research for the South Fork
Notable research involving the
South Fork and available to be
leveraged for the pilot research
project was identified at the
workshop and includes the
following:
s The Climate Impacts Group
(CIG) of the University of
Washington has developed
hydroclimatic scenarios
for the PNW, including for
the pilot area (Mauger and
Mantua 2011).
s Dan Isaak, USFS, with
support from the Great
Northern Landscape
Conservation Cooperative,
is developing a regional
stream temperature model.
s Tim Beechie, National
Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA), is
exploring steelhead salmon
vulnerability, including
from climate stress (Beechie
etal. 2013).
s Cristea and Burges,
University of Washington,
conducted an assessment
of stream temperature and
riparian shading for several
streams in the Wenatchee
River Basin to evaluate
the potential impact of
climate change on stream
temperature (Cristea and
Burges 2010).
3.2 Risk Assessment Framework
Because of the inherent uncertainty of climate change and the iterative
nature of watershed management, the project team recognized that a logic
model was needed as a framework to guide the assessment process.
The project is structured as a risk assessment in which a range of outcomes
from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission
scenarios is assessed, rather than a single prediction of climate change
effects on stream temperature and the related WOS.
The team leveraged the traditional risk assessment paradigm used by EPA
and other federal agencies that was originally developed for the human
health context and then applied to the ecological context. This traditional
risk assessment paradigm was extended to the climate change context and
is presented as Figure 3-2.
Climate Change
Ecological Risk Assessment
Communication:
Risk Assessor and
Risk Manager
(Planning)
Prob em Formulation
Characterization Characterization of
of Exposure Ecological Effects
Analysis
Climate Change Vulnerability
(Risk Characterization)
-O
Communication:
Risk Assessor and
Risk Manager
(Results)
Climate Change Adaptation
(Risk Management)
I
I
Figure 3-2. Ecological risk assessment framework with climate change
included in the process. Modified from Framework For Ecological Risk
Assessment, EPA/630/R-92/0001, February 1992.
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Climate Change Pilot Project for the South Fork Nooksack River, Washington
Problem Formulation
o
u a>
c ^
S t)
cr E
As illustrated in the figure, climate change is viewed as an additional
stressor to the environment. Climate change risk is analyzed through a
characterization of exposure and ecological effects. Risk is continually
reevaluated through new data acquisition. Thus, the iterative risk
management framework is essentially an adaptive management framework
that can be used as an approach to verify, monitor, and evaluate climate
change adaptation strategies.
Climate change presents
additional complexities
beyond the traditional risk
assessment. The magnitude
of consequence, as well as the
likelihood of future risk, must
be understood. The National
Climate Assessment presents a
risk matrix paradigm to explore
iterative risk management
(Melillo et al. 2014). The project
team expanded that model
by adding two dimensions
to make it robust enough to
address both climate change
effects and salmon habitat as
end points (Figure 3-3). The
dimensions of time—2020,
2040, and 2080—were added,
while the uncertainty of climate
ru
O ^
° 2
"O u
3 rc
*; Q.
S-E
re
Medium
2020
Types of Action
fl Develop
"-"J Strategies
I I Evaluate Further/
— Develop Strategies
~
Watch
Climate Scenarios
— High Impact
— Medium Impact
— Low Impact
2040
Very High
2080
Likelihood of impact on infrastructure
occuring during asset's useful life
Figure 3-3. Risk matrix showing appropriate types of action based on
Likelihood of impact, magnitude of consequences, and climate scenarios
(purple, blue, and green lines) (Source: Yohe 2001).
change is expressed by a range of outcomes. In the diagram, the green line
represents the low-impact scenario, the blue line represents the medium-
impact scenario, and the purple line represents the high-impact scenario.
The color of the box—yellow, orange, or red—determines whether the
approach should be watching, evaluating, or developing, and implementing
strategies to invoke climate change adaptation and reduce risk. While this
matrix was originally developed to consider impacts on infrastructure, the
project team considers this matrix (with the additions of time and climate
scenarios) a useful framework to evaluate species and habitat risk.
Critically for this project, restoration actions that are undertaken today may
not be fully realized until far into the future. Restoration actions such as
the establishment of mature riparian forests and flood plain reconnections
could take decades to manifest themselves in the natural environment.
For climate change, it is important to factor in the element of time, both in
the timing of future impacts and in the planning and realization of future
adaptation strategies.
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Climate Change Pilot Project for the South Fork Nooksack River, Washington
4.0 Research Approach
4.1 Parallel Study Strategy
A parallel study strategy was developed to provide a structured research
approach in the context of regulatory implementation. The study strategy
was designed to maximize the timing of research activities so that findings
could be integrated into the development of the South Fork temperature
TMDL. Figure 4-1 illustrates the parallel study strategy, where the research
Research Objective Milestones
Regulatory Objective Milestones
EPA Region 10 Climate Change and TMDL Pilot for the South Fork Nooksack River
South Fork Nooksack River Temperature Total Maximum Dally Load
Data Review,
Technical Approach and
Recommendations
Formulate
Research Plan
Quality
Assurance
Project Plan
DECEMBER:
Develop Boundary
Conditions for Future
Climate Scenarios
TMDL
Shade and Temperature
Modeling
Research
Analysis and
Risk/
Vulnerability
Assessment
3> "Evaluation of TMDL
^ Climate Change
2 Considerations
TMDL
Development
¦ Develop TMDL
Implementation
NOVEMBER: Plan Lan8ua9e
Nooksack Indian
Tribe Presents, WRIfl-1
Management
Develop
Final Project
Report
Report Renort
Quantitative Assmt
Figure 4-1. Pilot research project and temperature TMDL parallel study strategy and major
milestones.
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Climate Change Pilot Project for the South Fork Nooksack River, Washington
Research Approach
and regulatory objective milestones are identified across the project time
horizon (beginning with 2012 at the top of the graphic and ending with
2017 at the bottom). This strategy was used to concurrently accomplish the
research objective of exploring how adaptation to climate change could be
incorporated into the TMDL implementation planning process, with the
regulatory objective of developing the South Fork temperature TMDL.
The research thread (on the left in the figure) runs from the development of
the project research plan at project outset through publishing of the final
project report (this document), which summarizes project activities and
findings. The quantitative and qualitative assessment milestones flow from
top to bottom as components of the research thread.
The regulatory thread (on the right in the figure) identifies milestones
associated with the South Fork temperature TMDL, including the filing of
the TMDL by Ecology.
The two threads are playing out across time (2012-2017), with the research
outputs directly incorporated into the regulatory thread. Research
outputs include the development of boundary conditions for future
climate scenarios and comparison of modeled stream temperatures to the
state's cold-water temperature WOS from the quantitative assessment;
and development of risk/vulnerability methodologies and TMDL
implementation plan language from the qualitative assessment.
Stakeholder involvement, which is critical to the success of the pilot research
project, occurred throughout the project and is described in section 5. Key
stakeholder engagement milestones are shown in orange circles.
The final reports from the quantitative (Butcher et al. 2016) and qualitative
(EPA 2016) assessments are companion methods documents to the
regulatory TMDL developed by Ecology and the updated ESA salmon
recovery plan for the South Fork developed by the Nooksack Indian Tribe.
The methodology of the two assessments is described in section 4.2, while
the findings are summarized in section 6.
4.2 Methods
The pilot research project was structured using quantitative and qualitative
assessments, and relied on stakeholder engagement as a fundamental,
cross-cutting element.
The quantitative assessment compares output of stream temperatures from
the OUAL2K water quality model (including riparian shading), for scenarios
with and without climate change for the 2020s, 2040s, and 2080s (Butcher
et al. 2016). It directly relates to the CWA numeric cold-water standard.
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Climate Change Pilot Project for the South Fork Nooksack River, Washington
Research Approach
To consider all of the other important habitat features that come into
play for salmon recovery, the qualitative assessment was conducted. It is
a comprehensive analysis of freshwater habitat for ESA recovery actions
in the South Fork under climate change. The results, which were included
in the TMDL implementation plan, are a prioritized list of climate change
adaptation strategies—real-world implementation—that support the
restoration. Taken together, the quantitative and qualitative assessments
will help protect the beneficial uses and ESA recovery goals under
climate change.
Figure 4-2 highlights the overarching stepwise methodology of the pilot
research project, which included problem formulation (step 1), development
of the research approach (step 2), and climate change analysis and
vulnerability assessment (step 3), with stakeholder engagement cross-
cutting the process. Climate change analysis and vulnerability assessment
(step 3) was conducted via the quantitative and qualitative assessments.
The quantitative assessment involved four substeps: watershed modeling,
climate change modeling, developing future boundary conditions, and
Quantitative Assessment
WATERSHED MODELING
CLIMATE CHANGE MODELING
DEVELOPING FUTURE BOUNDARY CONDITIONS
DOCUMENTING RESULTS
STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT
STEP 3:
CLIMATE CHANGE
ANALYSIS AND
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT
Qualitative Assessment
DEFINING SCALE OF ANALYSIS
IDENTIFYING PROJECTED CUMATE CHANGE RISK
EVALUATING IMPACTS BY SALMONID SPECIES
EVALUATING IMPACTS BY RESTORATION ACTION
DOCUMENTING RESULTS
TMDL CLIMATE
CHANGE
CONSIDERATIONS
AND
IMPLEMENTATION
PLAN
Figure 4-2. Relationships between the outputs of the quantitative and qualitative assessments in the pilot
research project process
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16
Climate Change Pilot Project for the South Fork Nooksack River, Washington
Research Approach
documenting results (Butcher et al. 2016). The qualitative assessment
involved five substeps: defining the scale of analysis, identifying projected
climate change risk, evaluating the impacts by salmonid species,
evaluating the impacts by restoration action, and documenting the results
(EPA 2016).
Figure 4-2 also illustrates the relationships between the outputs of the
assessments. The quantitative assessment results were used to inform the
qualitative assessment. Results of both assessments were used to inform
the South Fork temperature TMDL implementation plan. The qualitative
assessment also will be used to inform future ESA salmon recovery plans
for the South Fork.
4.2.1 Quality Assurance
The Quantitative Assessment
is considered a methods
manual for the climate change
modeling conducted for the
pilot research project.
The Quantitative Assessment
objectives include:
• Compare modeled stream
temperature, including
riparian shading, with and
without climate change for
the 2020s, 2040s, and 2080s.
• Compare modeled stream
temperatures to the cold-
water temperature WOS
for protecting salmon ids
to inform the TMDL
implementation plan.
• Use a risk assessment
approach to provide
risk managers with an
understanding of potential
climate change impacts on
stream temperatures and
stream flow.
The Quantitative Assessment is
available online here.
The pilot research project uses secondary data as described in the
Quality Assurance Project Plan, EPA Region 10 Climate Change and TMDL:
Qualitative Assessment (USEPA 2014). The core data for the pilot research
project is based on three published reports: 1) Restoring Salmon Habitat
For A Changing Climate (Beechie et al. 2013); 2) Quantitative Assessment
of Temperature Sensitivity of the South Fork Nooksack River Nooksack River
under Future Climates using OUAL2Kw, EPA/600/R-14/233 (Butcher et al.,
2016); and 3) WRIA 1 Salmonid Recovery Plan (adopted by the WRIA 1
Salmon Recovery Board in 2005). Limitations on use of these data are
stated in the quantitative and qualitative assessments. Other published
and unpublished reports are used as secondary data and cited throughout
this report. Unpublished data is attributed to the organization [federal,
tribal, state, local and non-government organizations (NGOs)] that was
responsible for the collection of the data and these references conform with
their organization's policies and procedures to ensure data quality (e.g.,
Quality Management Plans and Standard Operating Procedures). Anecdotal
information or assumptions used in sensitivity analysis are clearly cited
in this assessment and best professional judgment by natural resource
professionals, including the Nooksack Indian Tribe and other government
organizations (federal, tribal, state, local) is necessary and desirable to
synthesize data and present informed conclusions.
4.2.2 Quantitative Assessment Methods
The quantitative assessment serves both as a place-based analysis of
risks associated with climate change in the South Fork and as a how-to
example of technical methods that can be applied in temperature TMDL
implementation plans at other sites and, more generally, the evaluation of
any temperature-sensitive watershed responses important to regulatory
and planning applications.
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Climate Change Pilot Project for the South Fork Nooksack River, Washington
Research Approach
The quantitative assessment evaluated the implications of climate change
for the water temperature TMDL implementation plan developed for the
South Fork (Butcher et al. 2016). The associated modeling used stream
hydrology simulations in conjunction with an analysis of shading to predict
the temperature in the South Fork during the critical period, which is
the period with summer low flows and elevated air temperatures, when
river temperatures are most at risk of exceeding the water quality criteria,
jeopardizing aquatic life uses of the river.
In Washington State WOS, aquatic life use categories are described using
key species (e.g., salmon versus warm-water species) and life-stage
conditions (e.g., spawning versus rearing). The temperature criteria
established to protect these species and conditions include numeric criteria
of 12 degrees Celsius (°C) for char spawning and rearing; and 16 °C for core
summer salmonid habitat. The criteria are based on the highest 7-day
average of daily maximum temperatures (7-DADMax). Temperatures are
not to exceed the criteria at a probability frequency of more than once
every 10 years on average. When the background condition is cooler than
the criteria, the temperature increases resulting from the combined effect
of all nonpoint source activities in the waterbody must not, at any time,
exceed 2.8 °C.6
The temperature criteria applicable to the South Fork are listed in Table 4-1.
Where the 'natural' conditions are greater than the numeric criteria, the
state standards allow an increase of no more than 0.3° due to human actions.
The South Fork has 14 mainstem segments and nine tributary segments
identified as impaired by elevated water temperature on Washington's 2010
303(d) list. These segments are documented to exceed the temperature
criteria established by Ecology to protect aquatic life use categories
(salmonid habitat) and life-stage conditions (spawning and rearing).
Table 4-1. Washington State temperature criteria for the South Fork Nooksack River
watershed
Use Classification Numeric Temperature Criteria1,2
Core summer salmonid habitat, spawning,
rearing, and migration
Char spawning and rearing
Supplemental salmonid spawning and
incubation
Source: WAC 173-201A-200, 2003 edition.
Notes:
1 The highest annual running 7-day average of daily maximum temperatures.
2 When a water body's temperature is warmer than the criteria in Table 200 (l)(c) (or within 0.3°C
(0.54°F) of the criteria) and that condition is due to natural conditions, then human actions
considered cumulatively may not cause the 7-DADMax temperature of that water body to increase
more than 0.3°C (0.54°F)" (WAC173-201A-200(l)(c)(i)).
6 As identified in the Washington Administrative Code [WAC] 173-2 01A-2 00; 2003 edition.
< 16 °C 7-DADMax
< 12 °C 7-DADMax
< 13 °C 7-DADMax (Sept 1-Jul 1)
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Climate Change Pilot Project for the South Fork Nooksack River, Washington
Research Approach
The temperature TMDL implementation plan is intended to address these
conditions and identify the solutions needed to improve river temperatures
and support designated uses. The quantitative assessment methodology
was developed to complement the South Fork temperature TMDL
modeling efforts and explore how future climate scenarios might impact
achievement of temperature criteria important for development of the
implementation plan.
The South Fork TMDL modeling analysis used to estimate the temperature
TMDL consists of a shade model (Ecology 2003b) linked to the OUAL2Kw
water quality model (Ecology 2003a). The shade model quantified the
potential daily solar load and generated the percent effective shade,
while OUAL2Kw was used to simulate instream water temperature. The
quantitative assessment used these same models but accounted for air and
water temperature and stream flow changes as a result of various climate
scenarios and applied shading at different levels to evaluate the effects
on stream temperature (Butcher et al. 2016). The quantitative assessment
methodology steps included watershed modeling, climate change
modeling, and developing future climate-related stream flow conditions.
The approach for each of these steps is described in more detail below.
Watershed Modeling
The shade model was used to evaluate the impacts of restoring system
potential vegetation (SPV) and associated shade in the TMDL. SPV is the
mature (100-year+) tree community expected to be obtained on a given
soil type if the riparian corridor was left undisturbed, also considered
to be most like the natural watershed conditions prior to European
settlement. Increased shading typically reduces daily maximum water
temperatures but has a lesser
impact on minimum and daily
average water temperatures
(Johnson 2004). Washington
State Department of Natural
Resources (WDNR) and county
soil surveys identify Douglas
fir and western hemlock as the
dominant species over most of
the project area. At SPV, these
trees, in this location, should
have a 90th percentile height
of 50.66 meters. Figure 4-3
illustrates the model results for
hxistin® Sliodn
— — • System ^otert al All Vegetated
- Sy-ton Potnnli.nl: All s/ogot.irrd -xrfpt Konrl'/l)fvolopr
- NSDZ w d:h
ICO
Figure 4-3. Effective shade values under existing conditions and at system
potential vegetation.
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Climate Change Pilot Project for the South Fork Nooksack River, Washington
Research Approach
effective shade cover over the river under existing vegetation conditions
and at the SPV shade levels.
For the TMDL, the OUAL2Kw model was applied to conduct focused
analyses of critical conditions (e.g., late summer low flow, clear sky, and
high air temperature conditions) that exacerbate temperature impairments,
from which TMDL targets were determined directly. The models were
developed for well-monitored 2007 and 2010 summer conditions.
The modeling team developed a series of modeling scenarios to evaluate
stream temperatures on the mainstem of the South Fork under various
typical and critical summer conditions. During both typical low-flow and
critical low-flow conditions, and corresponding meteorological conditions
in the summer, the calibrated model estimated that the South Fork exceeds
the numeric water quality criteria of 12 °C (from the headwaters to reach
28) and 16 °C (from reach 28 to the outlet) in nearly all mainstem river
segments, consistent with recent observations. To estimate the stream
temperature profile under conditions of maximum potential shade, the
models were run with 100-year SPV, associated microclimate effects, and
tributaries and headwaters at or below the numeric water quality criteria.
Under both typical and critical 100-year SPV scenarios, the model predicted
that the stream will continue to exceed the numeric water quality criteria
for temperature.
Due to the legacy impacts on the South Fork (such as landuse changes
from forestry practices, clearing and settlement, and agriculture), several
supplemental modeling scenarios were undertaken as a sensitivity
analysis for the TMDL analysis to compare possible stream temperature
responses during critical conditions with inferred historical conditions for
the watershed land cover and stream channel geometry. These analyses
suggest that, under historical conditions, stream temperatures during low-
flow critical conditions could be as much as 16 percent lower than predicted
under the 100-year SPV scenarios, with the predicted average maximum
stream temperature across all reaches dropping from 18.7 to 15.8 °C.
Climate Change Modeling
The primary objective of this modeling effort was to supply new climate
information to the OUAL2Kw model based on projected future changes to
the climate and to assess the results.
This project was able to leverage downscaled climate data sets and
integrate ongoing research by the Climate Impacts Group (GIG) of the
University of Washington. The basis of the GIG's climate change
assessment is a common set of simulations from the Special Report on
Emissions Scenarios (SRES) using 21 global climate models (GCMs)
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Conditions Prior to
European Settlement
Cooler headwater tributaries
Reduced natural channel
width
Increased riparian climax
tree height, greater buffer
width
Enhanced hyporheic
exchange
Reduced critical condition
water temperature
Reduced levels of sediment
delivery, loading, and
transport
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20
Climate Change Pilot Project for the South Fork Nooksack River, Washington
Research Approach
What's the 7Q10 Flow?
The lowest 7-day average flow
that occurs once every 10-years,
on average.
What's the 7Q2 Flow?
The lowest 7-day average flow
that occurs once every 2 years, on
average.
coordinated through the IPCC (Randall et al. 2007). These GCMs have
established a range of projections of future climate based on various
emission scenarios. The GCMs model project climate conditions at a large
spatial scale (approximately 15,000 square miles), however, and do not
account for local topography.
The CIG used a downscaling approach to determine the relationship
between GCM output and local climate variations for a more local analysis.
The group took projected time series from GCMs and downscaled the
meteorological output to a 1/16-degree resolution (approximately 6,600
acres) for the PNW (Hamlet et al. 2013; Polebitski et al. 2007).
A general schematic of the relationships between CIG climate products
and the TMDL model is shown in Figure 4-4. For this project, a limited
subset of model results for the IPCC A1B emissions scenario was selected
for evaluation.
The A1B scenario was considered a moderate emissions scenario as
compared to several other IPCC scenarios with more rapid increases
in greenhouse gasses. The models in the A1B scenario have a mean
temperature increase that is 1 °C lower at the end of the 21st century than
the A2 (high emissions) scenario, but the range among models in the
A2B scenarios covers most of the A2 range as well. Three time horizons
(representative of projected climate in the 2020s, 2040s, and 2080s) were
evaluated using results from GCMs under the A1B scenario downscaled for
the South Fork Nooksack watershed.
Meteorology Change
Factors
Shade Model
CIG Downscaled Future Climate
VIC Regional Hydrologic
Model
Tributaiy Water
Temperature Prediction
Model
ExistinR
Hydrology
QUAL2Kw Future Climate Instream
Temperature Model
Paiameleis
Calibrated QUAL2KW Instream lemperature Model
Precipitation, Air lemp,
Evaporation
Air Temp Solar Radiation,
Vapor Pressure Deficit
Change
Factors
Climate-altered
Boundary I lows
Solar Radiation
1
Air lemp, Dewpoint, Cloud,
Wind
Figure 4-4. Schematic of model and climate data integration for the
quantitative assessment (Butcher et a I. 2016).
Critical summer water
temperatures are affected
by both air temperature
and flow regime. Within the
A1B emissions scenario, the
project team identified three
GCMs for the analysis that
are anticipated to cover the
reasonable range of potential
futures, including a scenario
that predicts low warming of
air temperature and increased
summer precipitation (model
low-impact scenario), a
medium amount of warming
(medium-impact scenario),
and a high amount of
summer warming coupled
with decreased summer
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Climate Change Pilot Project for the South Fork Nooksack River, Washington
Research Approach
Table 4-2. Summary of the scenarios, associated models, arid general climatic trends
Scenario
GCM
General Trends
Low Impact
CGCM3.1-t47 (Third Generation
Coupled Global Climate Model)
Low warming, increased
precipitation
Medium
Impact
CCSM3 (Community Climate
System Model)
Average warming, decreased
summer precipitation
High Impact
HADGEM1 (Hadley Centre
Global Environmental Model)
High warming, decreased
precipitation
precipitation (high-impact scenario), resulting in three climate models
by three time horizons, or nine model runs (Table 4-2). This collection of
models addressed the project objective of evaluating the ensemble range
of outcomes from one IPCC emissions scenario for the climate change risk
assessment.
The draft TMDL analysis was developed using a steady-state OUAL2Kw
water quality model applied to critical conditions (summer low flows and
high air temperatures) within the South Fork (Ecology 2003a). In the
quantitative assessment, the modeling team reevaluated each of the critical
condition parameters under estimated future climate conditions (Butcher
etal. 2016).
The critical conditions model run for the draft TMDL was based on the
7-day average flow with a 10-year recurrence frequency (7010 flow),
representing a critical low-flow condition combined with air temperatures
of a similar recurrence (the 90th percentile 7-day annual maximum).
Some model simulations also were conducted using the 7-day average flow
with a 2-year recurrence frequency (702 flow) combined with the median
summer maximum temperature to represent the temperature stress on
salmonid populations during an average, or typical, year. Flow conditions
under future climates were based on an estimate of the effect of climate on
flow during low-flow periods. To make this estimate, predicted changes in
summer base flow were incorporated into the model.
In addition to flow conditions, the modeling team adjusted other
parameters under the climate change scenarios, including water
temperature, air temperature, dew point temperature, and groundwater
discharge temperature. Cloud cover and wind were not adjusted from the
TMDL model conditions.
4.2.3 Qualitative Assessment Methods
The qualitative assessment complements the modeling investigations of
the TMDL provided in the quantitative assessment and evaluates additional
restoration actions and strategies, beyond riparian shading, to enhance
salmon recovery under climate change in the South Fork (EPA 2016).
Science in Action: Innovative Research for a Sustainable Future
The Qualitative Assessment is
considered a methods manual
for the evaluation of restoration
actions to enhance salmon
recovery under climate change
for the pilot research project.
The Qualitative Assessment
objectives include:
• Comprehensively analyze
freshwater salmon habitat
for ESA salmon restoration in
the South Fork under climate
change.
• Create a prioritized list
of strategies that support
salmon restoration in the
South Fork under climate
change.
• Apply the method described
in Restoring Salmon Habitat
For a Changing Climate
(Beechie etal. 2013).
The Qualitative Assessment is
available online here.
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Climate Change Pilot Project for the South Fork Nooksack River, Washington
Research Approach
The Nooksack Indian Tribe led the qualitative assessment because they
shared authorship of the current Water Resource Inventory Area (WRIA) 1
ESA salmon recovery plan and they have substantial local knowledge of the
South Fork watershed and fish habitat (WRIA 1 2005).
While the WRIA 1 Salmonid Recovery Plan articulated the watershed
vision for the Nooksack River Basin—to recover self-sustaining salmonid
runs to harvestable levels—the very low populations of the early Chinook
salmon necessitated a focus on the immediate benefits of implementation
actions on the abundance and productivity of the populations. Therefore,
the potential impacts of climate change on the South Fork were not
considered in the past to address this gap (WRIA 1 2005, p. 21). The goal
of the qualitative assessment was to evaluate salmonid species life-cycle
biology and ESA species recovery actions in the South Fork TMDL, and to
incorporate climate change risk into salmonid recovery planning in the
South Fork (EPA 2016).
The objectives of the assessment were to identify and prioritize climate
change adaptation strategies or recovery actions for the South Fork that
explicitly include climate change as a risk. The qualitative assessment
findings are intended to inform development of the South Fork temperature
TMDL implementation plan, updates to the ESA WRIA 1 Salmonid Recovery
Plan, and other land-use and restoration planning efforts.
In the qualitative assessment, historic conditions (or natural conditions in
the South Fork temperature TMDL) and the changes resulting from those
conditions are evaluated (EPA 2016). The cumulative effects of legacy
impacts from timber harvest, flood control, transportation facilities, and
conversion of forested land to agricultural uses in the South Fork have
substantially altered the nature of the South Fork channel, floodplain,
and watershed, resulting in degraded habitat conditions that threaten the
survival of salmonids. Climate change has exacerbated and will continue to
exacerbate those cumulative effects.
It is important to consider past (historical), current (existing), and future
(climate change) habitat conditions to evaluate ESA recovery actions
in the South Fork. This approach recognizes process-based principles
for restoration, which include (1) targeting root causes of habitat and
ecosystem change; (2) tailoring restoration actions to local potential; (3)
matching the scale of restoration to the scale of physical and biological
processes; and (4) clearly defining expected outcomes, including recovery
time, to guide sustainable recovery of salmonid populations (Beechie
etal. 2010).
The qualitative assessment methodology was based on Restoring Salmon
Habitat for a Changing Climate (Beechie et al. 2013). In that paper, the
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Climate Change Pilot Project for the South Fork Nooksack River, Washington
Research Approach
authors grouped restoration actions according to the watershed processes
or functions they attempt to restore and then, based on evidence from
peer-reviewed literature, classified them as either likely or unlikely to
ameliorate a climate change effect on high stream flows, low stream flows,
and stream temperatures.
Impacts of climate change will vary across rivers and will include several
different climate risks (e.g., increase in temperature, decrease in base flow,
increase in peak flow, and increase in sediment loading and transport). In
turn, the risks to salmonid populations could vary according to salmonid
species (e.g., impairing optimal temperature thresholds according to
life cycle), season, and/or location within the river system. Evaluating
the effectiveness of regulatory protections in the face of climate change
also is a key component of developing an effective recovery strategy. The
methodology used in this evaluation was based on applying the Beechie
method to the geographic and regulatory context of the South Fork-
determining the geographical extent of the climate change assessment
and evaluating impacts by climate risk, salmonid species, and restoration
actions (Beechie et al. 2013).
Defining the Geographic Scale of Analysis
The mainstem South Fork was divided into five reaches based on river miles
(RMs): RMs 0-14.3 (floodplain; impaired TMDL reach); RMs 14.3-18.5
(canyon); RMs 18.5-25.4 (core Chinook spawning); RMs 25.4-31 (confined
areas); and upstream of RM 31 (mostly U.S. Department of Agriculture- and
U.S. Forest Service- [USFS-] administered lands). The contributing
watershed was divided into seven subbasins based on these reach breaks
and the contribution of larger tributaries. Figure 4-5 illustrates these
reaches and subbasins.
Identifying Impacts by
Climate Risk
In the qualitative assessment, historic
conditions (or natural conditions in the
South Fork temperature TMDL) and the
changes, or legacy impacts, resulting
from those conditions due to past land
management are evaluated (EPA 2016).
Modeling conducted as part of the
quantitative assessment (Butcher et al.
2016) was relied upon in the qualitative
assessment to determine the magnitude
of effects on temperature, flow, and
sediment dynamics.
+ Reach Breaks
Tributary
SOUHlFOtKHOOKSaCKRivef
03 OuatitalrveAssessmerct Subbasi
acme
I valK
MS
{ Reach 1 S
Ml 0.14: FJMdplSil
Hutchinson
Edfro
Ca,ra'naugh
1 n \
L \ |
'l Howard
Reach 4
Reach 5
KM >31.
horest Service
Reach 2
iU 143-18.5:
Plumbago
KM 25.4-31:
Confined Reaches
Figure 4-5. South Fork Nooksack reaches and subbasins.
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Climate Change Pilot Project for the South Fork Nooksack River, Washington
Research Approach
Evaluating Impacts per Salmonid Species
Nine species of Pacific salmonids inhabit the South Fork, including spring
Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), chum salmon (O. keta),
coho salmon (O. kisutch), pink salmon (O. gorbuscha), sockeye salmon (O.
nerka), cutthroat trout (O. clarkii), steelhead trout (O. mykiss), and bull
trout (Salvelinus confluentus). The first step in determining the impacts
of climate change by species involved overlaying the species life stage
periodicity in the South Fork with vulnerability to climate change. Then,
the species distribution was overlaid with the model output. Temperature
requirements and the modeled annual temperature regime were plotted
against each other graphically. This was done in detail for the ESA listed
species: spring Chinook salmon, steelhead trout, and bull trout. The
remaining five species were analyzed using the life stage periodicity
overlay with vulnerability to climate change impacts.
Evaluating Impacts per Salmon Restoration Action
Generally, actions for mitigating future climate change impacts on salmon
involve reducing the existing threats to their freshwater habitats caused
by legacy land and water use activities that impair natural physical and
biological processes. Because of the small size of salmonid populations and
their importance to regional recovery, the goal of the assessment was to
ensure that restoration actions address the current limiting factors while
considering the longer term future threats such as increased development
and climate change.
Salmon recovery actions and the ability of each action to ameliorate
climate change effects were evaluated on that basis. Restoration actions
were prioritized by reach and subbasin based on the ability to ameliorate
various climate change impacts and/or increase salmon resilience, and on
the potential effectiveness of each restoration action.
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Climate Change Pilot Project for the South Fork Nooksack River, Washington
5.0 Stakeholder and Tribal
Engagement
The pilot research project was developed as a stakeholder-centric process.
Stakeholder outreach and engagement was considered a critical, cross-
cutting element of the methodology. Local stakeholders are the most
familiar with watershed processes and habitat conditions in the South Fork
watershed and engaging these stakeholders in project activities makes it
more likely that the findings and recommendations will be embraced and
ultimately implemented.
Two federally recognized American Indian tribes are involved in watershed
management of the South Fork: the Lummi Nation and the Nooksack
Indian Tribe. Throughout the project, EPA has recognized and maintained
the federal Indian trust responsibility to protect their tribal treaty rights,
lands, assets, and resources. Engagement with the tribes has occurred on
a government-to-government basis, recognizing the sovereignty between
the United States and both federally recognized tribes. For thousands of
years, the Lummi Nation and the Nooksack Indian Tribe have cared for the
land and waterways in the project area. Stakeholder engagement efforts
centered on incorporating the leadership and knowledge of the tribes into
the activities of the pilot research project.
Local stakeholders, including federally recognized tribes, have always
been on the front line when it comes to protecting rivers and streams from
pollution and the encroachment of development and land use change,
and their role will become increasingly important as climate change
exacerbates the existing stressors.
5.1 Stakeholder Identification
Success of the pilot research project depended to a significant degree
on identifying and engaging local stakeholders and all other interested
parties in the interactive project. Even within EPA, there was increased
stakeholder engagement and interaction. During project scoping and
the initiation of the research planning process, EPA's Region 10 and OW
coordinated with EPA ORD to create the One EPA Team, which recognized
the importance of incorporating climate change considerations into the
South Fork temperature TMDL (with EPA Region 10 having regulatory
authority for the TMDL).
A community-based approach to problem solving requires working
solutions at the local level. To initiate the project, EPA reached out to the
tribes, state and local governments, and technical experts already involved
in the South Fork watershed, including representatives of the following:
; In the end,
almost all
adaptation is
local To be
effective, it
needs strong
local knowledge
and strong
local adaptive
capacit^y
—Sattertheaite et at.
2007, p. 74
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26
Climate Change Pilot Project for the South Fork Nooksack River, Washington
Stakeholder and Tribal Engagement
"The Nooksack Indian Tribe
relies on salmon for subsistence,
commercial, cultural, and
ceremonial purposes," Oliver Grah,
water resources program manager
of the Nooksack Indian Tribe,
said. "The Tribe is an active part
of the efforts to sustain salmon
population in the face of climate
change."
EPA 2014, p. 1-2
¦ County agencies: Whatcom Conservation District, Whatcom
County Marine Resources Committee, Whatcom County Planning
Department, Whatcom County Public Works.
¦ Federal agencies: USFS, NOAA Fisheries (regulatory authority for
ESA), U.S. Geological Survey.
¦ Local organizations: Whatcom Land Trust, Whatcom Watersheds
Information Network.
¦ Tribes: Lummi Nation, Nooksack Indian Tribe.
¦ Universities: University of Washington CIG (developed climate
scenarios for the South Fork), Western Washington University.
¦ Washington state agencies: Department of Ecology (lead for
the South Fork temperature TMDL), Department of Fish and
Wildlife, WDNR.
¦ Watershed management authority: WRIAs are planning and
administrative boundaries developed by Washington State. WRIA 1
is the Nooksack River watershed organizational structure integrating
tribes, county and city governments, and the public utility.
From the beginning of the pilot research project, EPA recognized the
special status of the tribal governments that were involved in the project.
The tribes play a key role in on-the-ground implementation. In particular,
the pilot research project has capitalized on the significant participation
and involvement of the Nooksack Indian Tribe to ensure that the problem
formulation, research activities, and findings and recommendations of the
project are relevant and implementable in the real-world context of the
South Fork watershed.
Their significant involvement supports, and is emblematic of, EPA's policy
of integrating traditional ecological knowledge into environmental science,
policy, and decision-making (2011), which recognizes the significance
of tribes' traditional values and cultures and the importance of their
accumulated knowledge and understanding of the local environment
in shaping scientific research, environmental decision-making, and
implementation.
5.2 Stakeholder Organization
A stakeholder organizational structure was developed to optimize
stakeholder involvement and maintain regular interaction over the life
of the project. This section describes the organizational structure and
is followed by a description of stakeholder engagement platforms and
activities in section 5.3.
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Climate Change Pilot Project for the South Fork Nooksack River, Washington
Stakeholder and Tribal Engagement
Project Sponsorship and Contract Support
Sponsors of the pilot research project included EPA ORD, EPA OW, and
EPA Region 10 (One EPA Team). Ecology, the Nooksack Indian Tribe, and
the Lummi Nation are cooperating sponsors. Ecology led the South Fork
temperature TMDL effort, while the Nooksack Indian Tribe and Lummi
Nation led local ESA recovery efforts.
The EPA consultant (Tetra Tech) provided technical and logistical contract
support to the project sponsors. Tetra Tech conducted the quantitative
assessment and supported other activities under the pilot research project,
including supporting Region 10 and Ecology in the development of the
South Fork temperature TMDL.
Core Interdisciplinary Team
The project sponsors recognized that significant stakeholder engagement
would be necessary to develop the qualitative assessment in a robust
manner and to facilitate locally appropriate project activities. The
formation of a core interdisciplinary team (CIDT) was recommended during
the January 2013 stakeholder engagement and project scoping facilitation
meeting to guide the qualitative assessment and broader outreach efforts.
Six key stakeholders agreed to serve on the CIDT: four staff members of
the Nooksack Indian Tribe Natural Resources Department—Treva Coe, Ned
Currence, Oliver Grah, and Mike Maudlin; Tim Beechie from NOAA; and
Steve Klein from EPA ORD.
The Nooksack Indian Tribe is a key implementer of recovery actions and
the CIDT's tribal members agreed to lead the team's technical activities.
These staff members are among the primary authors of the WRIA 1
Salmonid Recovery Plan and associated implementation documents (3-Year
Work Plans, Restoration Strategy Matrices). Jezra Beaulieu of the Nooksack
Indian Tribe provided technical support. Tim Beechie served on the CIDT
as the primary author of the Beechie methodology, used in the qualitative
assessment to incorporate climate change considerations into recovery
actions. Steve Klein served on the CIDT as the project manager of the pilot
research project. Tetra Tech provided facilitation and technical support for
the CIDT.
The CIDT used regular conference calls, email communication, and in-
person meetings to provide input to and oversight of development of
the qualitative assessment. The team also identified and led stakeholder
engagement activities related to the assessment and supported broader
stakeholder engagement efforts. The formation of the CIDT allowed for a
sustained high level of interaction from key stakeholders, while narrowing
down the number of participants to a manageable level for continued day-
to-day progress on the project.
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Climate Change Pilot Project for the South Fork Nooksack River, Washington
Stakeholder and Tribal Engagement
Virtual Interdisciplinary Team
To complement the CIDT, the formation of a larger virtual interdisciplinary
team (VIDT) also was recommended during the January 2013 meeting. The
VIDT was developed to provide review of and comment on the qualitative
assessment. The CIDT served as the coordinating arm for engagement of
the larger VIDT.
The VIDT has approximately 50 members, including representatives from
all the stakeholder groups listed in section 5.1. Membership was considered
flexible and able to expand to include other stakeholders depending on
need and/or interest.
The VIDT provided a platform for broader stakeholder involvement but
minimized demands on the time and schedules of the members. While
the CIDT met on a regular basis (virtually and in person), the VIDT
convened as necessary to provide review of and comment on the qualitative
assessment. The VIDT served as a useful mechanism to provide structured
communication and receive input from the larger group.
Legislative Bodies
Program Implementation
Watershed Management
Staff Team
WRIA 1 Management Team
(Government to Government)
Federal, State, Regional
Involvement/Programs
(Ex. Puget Sound
Partnership)
WRIA 1 Joint Policy Boards
(WRIA 1 Joint Board and
Salmon Recovery Board;
Government to Government)
Salmon Staff Team Members
include staff of Nooksack Tribe,
lummi Nation, WDFW, Whatcom
County. Bellingham. Whatcom Land
Trust, and NSEA
• Watershed Staff Team Members
Include staff of Nooksack Tribe,
Lummi Nation, Whatcom County,
Bellingham, PUD No. t, Department
of Ecology
• Establish as needed:
• EPA Climate Change Pilot
• Qualitative Assessment
• Virtual Interdisciplinary Team (VIDT)
• ESA Recovery Plan SFNR
Ad Hoc Work Groups:
• EPA Climate Change Pilot
• Qualitative Assessment
• Nooksack Indian Tribe Lead
• Core Interdisciplinary
Team (CIDT)
• ESA Recovery Plan SFNR
Designated Representative of the
WRIA lPolicy Board including:
Nooksack Tribe, lummi Nation,
WDFW, Whatcom County, City of
Bellingham, Small Qties
Representative, PUD No. 1
• Nooksack Tribe Policy Representative
• Lummi Nation Policy Representative
• WDFW, Regional Manager
• Whatcom County Executive
• Mayors of all Municipalities
• Public Utility District Manager
Source: WRIA 1 Policy Board; approved )une30, ?009 Governance Structure for Implementing WRIA 1 Programs, modified for EPA Region 10 Climate Change and TMDl Pilot
Figure 5-1. Organizational Structure of WRIA 1.
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Climate Change Pilot Project for the South Fork Nooksack River, Washington
Stakeholder and Tribal Engagement
Relationship with WRIA-1
As the local watershed authority, WRIA 1 was recognized as an important
organizational element for stakeholder engagement. WRIA planning units
were established by the Washington State Legislature in 1997 (pursuant
to Revised Code of Washington 90.82) as part of an integrated approach to
managing water resources in the state. There are 62 WRI As that delineate
the state's major watersheds, with WRIA 1 encompassing the Nooksack
watershed. WRIAs are authorized to apply for funding assistance for
planning and implementing watershed plans.7
WRIA 1 has a distinct watershed organizational structure that includes
policy boards, a management team, staff teams, and working groups. The
structure integrates tribes, county and city governments, and the public
utility (see Figure 5-1).
The stakeholder
organizational approach used
for the pilot research project
is closely aligned with the
WRIA 1 structure.
The Nooksack Indian Tribe is
the nexus of the multilayered
and integrated approach to
stakeholder engagement that
was critical to the success of
this project. The tribe acted
as a consistent and unifying
voice through multiple layers
of stakeholders. The CIDT
and VIDT were aligned
within the existing WRIA 1
governance structure shown
in Figure 5-2.
The Nooksack Indian Tribe
is at the center of the CIDT, the VI DT, and the WRIA 1. The tribe is a
member of each group. Involvement with WRIA 1 leads to higher level buy-
in and implementation support and promotes the methodology used in
the South Fork watershed to be expanded to other watersheds in the Puget
Sound basin.
Puget
Sound
WRIA 1
VIDT
Figure 5-2. Integration and interaction between stakeholder groups and
local governance structures.
7 More information on WRIAs is available on Ecology's website at here.
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Climate Change Pilot Project for the South Fork Nooksack River, Washington
Stakeholder and Tribal Engagement
5.3 Stakeholder Engagement Platforms
and Activities
The pilot research project benefited from stakeholder engagement through
a myriad of platforms designed to provide strategic input at critical
milestones. Stakeholder and tribal engagement was considered a two-
way street whereby information exchange came from both the technical
project participants and local stakeholders; leading to actual changes
in the approach based on information received from the stakeholders.
Thus, one important element of the process was determining the type of
stakeholder engagement platform that would best service project-specific
needs. The pilot research project used in-person meetings and webinars
to interact with stakeholders and promote two-way communication. Key
project-focused stakeholder engagement opportunities and outcomes are
summarized in Figure 5-3 and described following the figure.
Additionally, the project team sought to reach a broader audience and
participate in national, regional, and tribal climate change conversations.
These broader activities are described as promoting internal EPA
coordination (One EPA Team activities) and external awareness-building
through conferences and presentations.
In-Person Meetings
In-person meetings were held at critical moments in the project to
maximize generation of stakeholder feedback.
Stakeholder Workshop hosted by EPA Region 10 in Seattle, WA, June 2012.
The pilot research project was launched by EPA Region 10 at a workshop
held on June 25, 2012, in Seattle, Washington. The goal of the workshop
was to solicit from key stakeholders input on the project objectives and
activities. Specific workshop objectives were developed to meet both the
regulatory and research goals. Sixty-six attendees participated in the
workshop, including 38 in-person attendees and 28 virtual attendees via
GoToMeeting. These stakeholders provided valuable insight into problem
formulation, including development of both a quantitative and qualitative
assessment, and instrumental in the project accomplishments.
This workshop was structured as a question-and-answer session and open
forum. After introductory presentations were given, the meeting was
run town-hall style to encourage participation. The presentations were
intentionally complex and technical to encourage the stakeholders to
provide technical comments and questions based on their local knowledge
and understanding of the South Fork. Top experts attended and presented
at the meeting to provide a solid base of information and identify what
factors were known and what questions needed to be addressed by the
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Climate Change Pilot Project for the South Fork Nooksack River, Washington
Stakeholder and Tribal Engagement
Stakeholder Engagement
INITIAL
STAKEHOLDER
WORKSHOP
PROJECT
SCOPING
FACILITATION
INITIAL
ASSESSMENT
WORKSHOP
Host: EPA Region 10
Date, Location: June 2012, Seattle, WA
Objective: Solicit input on project goals and activities
Host: WRIA 1 Salmon Recovery Team
Date, Location: October 2012, Bellingham, WA
Objective: Briefing on Pilot Project and solicit input on scope and approach to
qualitative assessment
Accomplishment: WRIA 1 Salmon Recovery Team agreed that consideration of climate
change impacts and effects on salmon recovery is important
Host: Nooksack Indian Tribe
Date, Location: January 2013, Bellingham, WA
Objective: Identify climate change trends and future change, understand how historic and
current landscape processes impact salmonids, support development of methodology for
qualitative assessment
Accomplishment: Agreed to form interdisciplinary team
FORMATION
OF CORE
INTERDISCIPLINARY
TEAM (CIDT)
FORMATION
OF VIRTUAL
INTERDISCIPLINARY
TEAM (VIDT)
Participants: Nooksack Indian Tribe, NOAA, EPA
Date, Location: February 2013 formation, ongoing in-person and virtual meetings
Objective: Form a team to provide input and oversight of development of qualitative
assessment; coordinate the broader stakeholder meetings
Participants: WRIA 1 Salmon Recovery Staff Team and Watershed Management Staff
Team, EPA Region 10, Washington Ecology, EPA ORD, Nooksack Indian Tribe, and and other
state and local stakeholders
Date, Location: February 2013 formation, ongoing virtual meetings
Objective: Form a team to review and comment on qualitative assessment
VIDT WEBINAR
ON PROPOSED
METHODOLOGY
Host: EPA ORD and Nooksack Indian Tribe
Date, Location: November 2013, Virtual
Objective: Solicit input from VIDT on proposed methodology for qualitative assessment
VIDT WEBINAR
ON QUALITATIVE
ASSESSMENT
FINDINGS
WRIA 1 SALMON
RECOVERY STAFF
TEAM BRIEFING
WRIA 1
MANAGEMENT
TEAM INFORMATION
BRIEFING
TECHNICAL
TRANSFER WEBINAR
Host: EPA ORD and Nooksack Indian Tribe
Date, Location: May 2015, Virtual
Objective: Present methodology, findings, and recommendations of the qualitative
assessment. Obtain stakeholder input on process and recommendations
Host: WRIA 1 Salmon Recovery Staff Team
Date, Location: August 2015, Bellingham, WA
Objectives: Seek input on Draft Final Qualitative Assessment
Host: WRIA 1 Management Team
Date, Location: November 2015
Objective: Present final qualitative assessment to WRIA 1 Management Team for
discussion and comments
Host: EPA
Date, Location: November 2016, Virtual
Objective: Present findings and methodology on Quantitative Assessment to EPA Regions,
Office of Water, States, Tribal Organization and TMDL Practitioners
Figure 5-3. Stakeholder engagement opportunities and outcomes.
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Climate Change Pilot Project for the South Fork Nooksack River, Washington
Stakeholder and Tribal Engagement
project. The result was a highly interactive workshop that allowed for real-
time adjustments in how the pilot research project was going to proceed.
Feedback from the stakeholders significantly impacted the project by
identifying factors other than temperature that influence salmon recovery.
Stakeholder Engagement and Project Scoping Facilitation Meeting hosted
by Washington's WRIA 1 Watershed Management and Salmon Recovery
staff teams in Bellingham, WA, October 4, 2012.
The purpose of the meeting was to brief the WRI A1 salmon recovery and
watershed management staff teams on the pilot research project and to
solicit their input on issues, concerns, and opportunities to improve the
scope and effectiveness of the project. There were 12 meeting attendees.
Addressing ecological degradation and climate change adaptation is the
science of place—the application of ecological principals to the right scale
and context. This meeting was directed at working the problem by reaching
out to the WRI A 1 watershed management and salmon recovery teams in
their place and relying on their expertise to define the problem and project,
essentially creating a local problem-solving effort and embedding the
project in a local integrating organization. Involving these teams helped
the project to gain legitimacy in the community.
The key outcome of the October 2012 meeting was agreement by the
WRI A 1 salmon recovery team that consideration of potential climate
change impacts in the South Fork watershed and the effects on salmon
recovery efforts was important. The team recommended implementing
the qualitative assessment as a rapid-prototype pilot. Specifically, these
recommendations included (1) developing an assessment methodology
based on Restoring Salmon Habitat for a Changing Climate (Beechie et al.
2013), and (2) leaving open the possibility of another follow-on project to
"refine the assessment methodology" and/or "scale to a larger landscape,"
possibly for the entire Nooksack River basin or WRI A 1.
Stakeholder Engagement and Project Scoping Facilitation Meeting hosted by
the Nooksack Indian Tribe in Bellingham, WA, January 22 and 23,2013.
The purpose of the meeting was to (1) identify measured climate change
trends and projected future climate change; (2) understand how historic
and current landscape watershed processes impact salmonids and aquatic
habitats in the South Fork, evaluate current conditions, and identify
existing restoration tools; and (3) support development of the step-by-step
methodology for the qualitative assessment in the South Fork by review
and application of the Beechie method for evaluation of salmon recovery
strategies in the face of climate change in the South Fork (Beechie et al.
2013). Thirty-two participants attended the 2-day meeting.
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Stakeholder and Tribal Engagement
The meeting was used to move the project from a concept to a formal
methodology specific to the South Fork. Initially a formal agenda was
planned, but the participants got so actively involved that the agenda
was dropped, and the group began designing a mockup of the qualitative
assessment. Workshop participants were working the problem by applying
the Beechie methodology to each of the South Fork stream reaches and
identifying points of agreement and knowledge gaps (Beechie et al.
2013). Allowing the meeting to follow the momentum of the participants
created an impromptu way to make significantly more progress than was
initially expected. One of the key outcomes from the workshop was that
participants agreed to form the CIDT and VIDT to develop and provide
input on the qualitative assessment (further details in section 5. 2).
WRIA1 Salmon Recovery Staff Team Briefing in Bellingham, WA,
August 6, 2015.
Treva Coe of the Nooksack Indian Tribe led a briefing of the WRI A 1
salmon recovery staff team to seek peer input on the draft final qualitative
assessment. This briefing fulfilled a commitment to maintain substantive
interaction between the Nooksack Indian Tribe and the WRI A1 team. In
keeping with the deep engagement strategy, this briefing ensured that
the lines of communication were kept open and provided the salmon
recovery team with the opportunity to voice any concerns, ask questions,
and ultimately endorse the draft qualitative assessment before the report
moved to the WRI A 1 management team.
WRI A1 Management Team Information Briefing on the Final Qualitative
Assessment, November 9, 2015.
Oliver Grah and Treva Coe of the Nooksack Indian Tribe led a briefing of
the WRI A 1 management team to present the draft qualitative assessment.
The objective of the briefing was to ensure that the management team
actively supported the findings of the qualitative assessment. The
management team was given the opportunity to ask questions and provide
comments that could be addressed in the final version of the qualitative
assessment. Not only is buy-in from the management team important
for implementing the pilot research project findings, but also because
the pilot research project offers a bottom-up approach to assessment
that can be scaled to a broader Puget Sound basin research project for
WRI A consideration. Scaling up would be a clear shift from research
demonstration project to operational implementation.
Webinars
VIDT Webinar on the Proposed Methodology for Evaluating Climate Change
on Endangered Species Act Recovery Actions cosponsored by EPA ORD and
the Nooksack Indian Tribe, November 20, 2013.
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Climate Change Pilot Project for the South Fork Nooksack River, Washington
Stakeholder and Tribal Engagement
The goal of the webinar was to solicit input from the VIDT on the proposed
methodology for conducting the qualitative assessment. The VIDT webinar
was an opportunity to transfer technical details from the CIDT to the
VIDT. It offered an effective way to engage stakeholders in the process
of moving from project concept to actual project methods and provided
participants with the opportunity to react to the proposed methodology
and provide input before it was finalized. Forty members of the VIDT
participated in the webinar. After hearing the webinar presentations,
the majority of attendees agreed that the proposed methodology was
appropriate for the qualitative assessment.
VIDT Webinar on the Qualitative Assessment Findings cosponsored by EPA
ORD and the Nooksack Indian Tribe, May 19, 2015.
The second VIDT webinar was held to present the methodology, findings,
and recommendations of the qualitative assessment. Listening to and
addressing comments from the VIDT members was a key objective of the
meeting. As a rapid-prototype pilot, it is hoped that the methods used
in the qualitative assessment can be applied to other watersheds. The
webinar sought to obtain valuable stakeholder input on the process and
recommendations of the qualitative assessment and to ensure consensus
on the findings as the team works to move from research demonstration
to scaling up to a more comprehensive program. The VIDT endorsed the
qualitative assessment approach and recommendations, as well as the need
to scale them to other watersheds such as the Middle and North Forks.
Technical Transfer Webinar on the Quantitative Assessment, July 13, 2017.
A technical transfer webinar was held on July 13, 2017 to present the
findings and methodology of the quantitative assessment. Tetra Tech
delivered the webinar to the VIDT as well as to an audience of EPA regional
and OW personnel, state departments of environmental quality, tribal
environmental organizations, and TMDL practitioners to promote national
level knowledge transfer.
Internal EPA Coordination and One EPA Team Activities
The One EPA Team consists of representatives of EPA ORD, EPA OW,
and EPA Region 10. The interactions of this coordinated team led to the
jointly hosted June 2012 kickoff for the pilot research project. Interaction
was sustained through internal EPA briefings, which also served to build
awareness across EPA of the pilot research project process and findings.
Internal EPA awareness-building activities included:
¦ EPA OW brownbag seminar (July 2 012);
¦ EPA climate change speaker series (September 2013);
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Climate Change Pilot Project for the South Fork Nooksack River, Washington
Stakeholder and Tribal Engagement
¦ EPA Region 10 and OW briefing (August 2014);
¦ EPA OW and regions briefing (August 2015), and;
¦ EPA OW National Water Program Resilience Workgroup (March 2017).
External Awareness-Building: Websites, Conferences,
and Presentations
Because the pilot research project has the potential for regional and
national scale application, the project sponsors wanted to ensure that
project activities and findings reached a larger audience beyond local
stakeholders. Thus, the Science Inventory on EPA's public website was used
to post project deliverables. The Quantitative Assessment of Temperature
Sensitivity of the South Fork Nooksack River Nooksack River under Future
Climates using OUAL2Kw (Butcher et al. 2016) is available on EPA's website
at https://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si public record report.cfm?dirEntrvId=288555.
The Qualitative Assessment: Evaluating the Impacts of Climate Change on
Endangered Species Act Recovery Actions for the South Fork Nooksack River,
WA (EPA 2016) is found on EPA's website at https://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si
public record report.cfm?dirF.ntryID =520470.
Both EPA ORD and the Nooksack Indian Tribe presented on pilot research
project activities and findings through posters and presentations at several
public workshops and conferences. The illustrative public events include
the following:
¦ EPA Poster, PNW Climate Science Conference (September 2015);
¦ Nooksack Indian Tribe Presentation, EPA Tribal NPS Workshop
(March 2014);
¦ EPA and Nooksack Indian Tribe Co-Presentation, National
Adaptation Conference (May 2015);
¦ EPA Presentation, Coastal and Estuarine Research Federation
Conference (November 2015);
¦ EPA Presentation, Northwest Climate Conference (November 2015);
¦ EPA Presentation, Future of Our Salmon Technical Workshop
(August 2016);
¦ EPA and Nooksack Indian Tribe Co-Presentation and EPA Poster,
River Restoration Northwest (January 2017); and
¦ EPA Poster, National Adaptation Forum (May 2017).
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Climate Change Pilot Project for the South Fork Nooksack River, Washington
37
6.0 Results
6.1 Quantitative Assessment Modeling Results
Once the modeling team applied all the future climate boundary conditions
to the OUAL2kw model of TMDL critical conditions, the model was run
to determine the maximum water temperature predictions for the 2020s,
2040s, and 2080s under the low-, medium-, and high-impact scenarios
(Butcher et al. 2016). The daily maximum water temperature predicted
by the steady-state model under critical conditions was assumed to be
equivalent to the 7-DADMax as defined in the WOS.
The model processed 18 future climate simulation scenarios, including
one representing the current climate and current shade conditions at 7010
flows and one representing current climate and SPV shade at 7010 flows
to represent baseline (presettlement) conditions. The remaining scenarios
represented various combinations of high-, medium-, and low-impact
scenarios in 2020, 2040, and 2080, with either current shade or the SPV
shade. In the draft TMDL, Ecology estimates the "natural condition" of the
South Fork temperature regime utilizing readily available information such
as buffer tree height associated with the 100-year site index. The critical
100-year "natural condition" scenario was chosen by Ecology as the TMDL
natural condition scenario. To consider additional mitigation of water
temperature increases through effective buffering on all tributaries to the
South Fork; an additional natural conditions scenario was investigated,
including for future climate scenarios.8
In this section, we discuss the customary TMDL results first, then the
findings from the future climate scenario runs. The TMDL simulations,
even with maximum shade conditions, exceeds the numeric temperature
criteria throughout the river and approaches the temperature levels
identified as potentially lethal for 1-day and 7-day exposures (22 °C and
23 °C, respectively) in the downstream reaches.
The simulations estimating the impact of climate change on scenarios
using 7010 flow with current shade levels are noticeably warmer than
under the SPV scenarios, and they are projected to exceed the 1-day
maximum lethality threshold of 23 °C over much of the river, even by the
2020s. This is of practical concern for implementation activities because
it will take considerably longer than a decade to achieve SPV. It should be
recalled that TMDLs are based on extreme critical conditions, however, and
more typical conditions will not be as adverse.
Documenting Results
The research team developed
two products associated with the
quantitative assessment:
• Quart ti ta tive Assessmen t of
Temperature Sensitivity of the
South Fork Nooksack River
under Future Climates using
QUAL2Kw fully documents
the modeling approach and
results and is considered
a technical supplement to
the South Fork temperature
TMDL.
• Climate Change
Considerations for TMDL
Development in the South Fork
discusses the implications of
the quantitative assessment
for the South Fork TMDL
implementation plan.
8 Refer to the qualitative assessment section 5.1.1.1.1 Sensitivity Analysis for Natural Conditions
Estimate using Current Climate for more, including modeled natural condition scenarios
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As shown in Figure 6-1, water quality criteria are not met under any
of the scenarios using critical low-flow (7010) conditions. Under 2080
climate conditions, the maximum lethality temperature is exceeded
for all scenarios with current shade conditions. If shade conditions are
restored to the system potential value natural conditions (defined as pre-
European development conditions), however, the river can remain below
the maximum salmonid lethality thresholds, even though WOS are not
necessarily maintained at all times.
¦ 1-Day Maximum Lethality (23'C)
• Water QualityStandards
• 2080 High GCM, Current Shade
2080 Low GCMt Current Shade
7-DADMax Lethality (22;C)
— — 7Q10Baseline.Current Shade
- 2080 Medium GCM, Current Shade
2080 Medium GCM: 7Q10 Natural/Restored
Figure 6-1. Maximum stream temperature by RM under 7Q10 flows.
30
15
Current 2020s 2040s 2080s
£ 20
-High-Existing Shade
Med-Existing Shade
•Low-Existing Shade
-High-SPV
•Med-SPV
Low-SPV
Figure 6-2. Summary of 18 climate scenario-predicted maximum
temperatures with existing shade and SPV.
Note: "Low". "Med", and "High" refer to the Low, Medium, and High Impact
climate scenarios. SPV refers to restoration of 100-yr system potential
vegetative shading of the stream channel.
Examining average 7010 flow water
temperatures across the modeled
reaches of the river on the same
plot, SPV reduces average water
temperature by about 2 °C when
compared to the current shade levels.
Figure 6-2 summarizes all 18 climate
scenarios and the expected steady
increase in water temperature over
time. SPV is estimated to mitigate
climate-related water temperature
increases through the 2020s and to
reduce increases (relative to existing
shade) through the end of the century.
The TMDL analysis of critical
conditions purposefully represents
relatively extreme worst-case
conditions that will not occur every
year. The modeling team also looked
at some of the less extreme (more
frequently occurring; i.e., based on 2
year increments) conditions. Updating
the TMDL modeling for average
annual 2080 climate conditions
using 702 flows, the modeling team
simulated the maximum stream
temperatures that salmon are
expected to encounter during a
typical year.
Model results for 2080s climate
coupled with SPV and 702 flows and
meteorology are shown in Figure
6-3. The low-, medium-, and high-
impact scenarios all remain below
the 1-day lethality temperature over
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Climate Change Pilot Project for the South Fork Nooksack River, Washington
Results
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
River Mile
1-Day Maximum lethality (23*C) — — 7-DADMax Lethality (22X1
Water Quality Standards — — /Q2 System Potential Baseline
2080 Low GCM 2080 Medium GCM
2080 High GCM
Figure 6-3. 2080s maximum temperature at 7Q2 flows and SPV for the low-, medium-, and high-impact models
for the medium impact scenario.
most of the length of the South Fork
mainstem. The high-impact scenario,
however, does predict temperatures
higher than 23 °C for the lower 7
kilometers of the South Fork, even
under these less extreme, more typical
flow conditions. This could present a
barrier to migration because thermal
blockages for salmon are reported
to consistently occur in the range
of 19-23 °C (Mantua et al. 2010;
McCullough et al. 2001; Richter and
Kolmes 2005).9
A comparison of the medium-impact
scenario at 702 and 7Q10 flows
is shown in Figure 6-4. During a
typical year, the 7-DADMax lethality
temperature of 22 °C is projected
to be exceeded in only the farthest
7-DADMax Lethality
2080 Medium GCM. 7Q2
Water Qua ity Standards
2080 Medium OCM, 7010
7Q2 Current Shade Basel f
Figure 6-4. Comparison of 2080s maximum temperatures at 7Q2
and 7Q10 flows for the medium impact scenario.
9 Fine scale thermal heterogeneity and the role of thermal refugia is a current active research
area that can also help with thermal barriers. These concepts will be further discussed as part of
the qualitative assessment (section 6.2).
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40
Climate Change Pilot Project for the South Fork Nooksack River, Washington
Results
downstream reaches of the river, while under more extreme low-flow
conditions (7010 flows), the lethality temperature is exceeded along nearly
the entire mainstem.
Additional Effects from Climate Change
Modeling efforts for this project and others in the region show that, in
addition to increasing temperatures and decreasing flows, other effects of
climate change are likely to alter habitat conditions in the South Fork. Most
notably, higher-elevation runoff is expected to shift from a mix of rain and
snow to a rain-dominant regime, with more runoff occurring earlier in the
year. A possible result of this regime shift is an increase in extreme high
flows, which can cause the scouring and loss of salmonid eggs.10
Mass wasting refers to the
movement of a rock particle down
a slope due to gravity. Examples
of mass wasting include rock falls,
slumps, and debris flows. Mass
wasting can occur slowly over
time or occur very rapidly, such as
in a landslide.
Studies have shown that flood magnitude can be a significant predictor of
Chinook salmon survival rates. The magnitude and frequency of flooding
are likely to increase dramatically in the winter months in watersheds that
shift from rain and snow to a rain-dominated system. Modeling suggests
that the magnitude of floods could increase by 4-39 percent.
Another effect of more variable flows with increased peaks is the changes
in sediment. Increased bed and bank erosion are likely to occur. The
severity of erosion is dependent on channel shape and plan-form. Changes
in mass wasting also are likely, as is an increase in the number of unstable
road-fill failures. Riparian buffer effectiveness also will be threatened by
Table 6-1. Summary of predicted changes in future conditions
Future Conditions for the South Fork Nooksack River
Parameter
Change Direction
Air Temperature
Increase
Annual Precipitation
Steady
Summer Precipitation
Decrease
Snow Water Equivalent
Decrease
High Flows
Increase
Low Flows
Decrease
7-DADMax Water Temperature
Increase
Sediment/Turbidity
Increase
10 Climate-induced changes in temperature and precipitation can impact the hydrologic processes
of a watershed system in a variety of ways, in addition to the conditions modeled in this study
(such as the potential for nutrient loading). In addition to direct effects on the hydrologic cycle,
climate change will directly and indirectly alter ecological disturbances that are influenced by
hydrologic processes (such as potential for increased wildfires, forest mortality, vector borne
diseases, and ecosystem shifts). It was not practical to model each of these processes for this
study, although it could be important to do so in the future as more information on these changes
becomes available.
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Climate Change Pilot Project for the South Fork Nooksack River, Washington
Results
(Acme]
.Valley]
Hutcmnsonl
SKOpkum
i'^Upper.^
South l-ork
Edfro";.
.Cavanaugn
^Howard
Plumbago
./"Deerm
Reach
* Reach Breaks
2040 Medium Scenario
© 20-21 'C
O 21-22'C
O 22 23'C
O 23-24'C
O 24-25'C
O 25-26'C
© 26-27'C
Precipitation Zones
Highland
Snow-dominated
Figure 6-5. Summer low-flow temperatures under the 2040 medium-impact scenario.
increased peak flows. Table 6-1 summarizes the general trend for a number
of conditions.
6.2 Qualitative Assessment Results
As described above, climate change will have a significant effect on
temperature in the South Fork watershed—it is projected to rise by
2.81-6.31 °C by the 2080s—and could substantially reduce the amount
and quality of preferred salmon habitat. Other important climate
change impacts could include altered hydrology (higher peak flows,
floods, and lower late-summer flows) and sediment dynamics (increased
sedimentation). Climate change will cause the altitude at which the lower
limit of snow accumulation occurs to be higher and reduce the area and
depth of snow accumulation, which in turn will increase flows in the fall-
winter-spring period, but reduce flows during the critical low-flow period.
There will likely be an increase in the frequency and magnitude of mass
earth failures resulting from oversaturation of oversteepened glacially
carved mountain slopes. More frequent landslides, both natural and
human-induced (e.g., caused by forest practices, roads, and clearcuts), could
increase the sediment loading of the South Fork. All of these impacts will
have adverse effects on Pacific salmon in the South Fork and must be taken
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Climate Change Pilot Project for the South Fork Nooksack River, Washington
Results
into consideration when restoration plans are being modified, updated, and
prepared to be climate-ready for the future.
Summer low-flow temperature modeling shows that the greatest impact to
water temperature will occur in the lower three reaches of the South Fork.
These areas either currently exceed the 7-DADMax lethal limit of 22 °C or
are expected to exceed this limit under the medium-impact climate change
scenario, as illustrated in Figure 6-5.
Increased winter peak flow is expected to be more pronounced in reaches
of the South Fork that have been impacted by artificial confinement to
prevent erosion. Sediment flux is expected to reflect the increase in peak
flow, as sediment transport increases. Increases in bank erosion and
potentially an increase in mass wasting could deliver more sediment to
the channel in the steeper areas of the upper watershed and subbasins.
Table 6-2 summarizes the distribution and severity of climate change
impacts through the reaches and subbasins of the South Fork Nooksack
River watershed.
Table 6-2. Summary of distribution arid severity of potential climate change impacts across South Fork
reaches and subbasins
Climate Impact
Reach or Subbasin
Reduced Spring
Snowmelt
Elevated
Summer
Temperature
Reduced
Summer Low
Flow
Increased Winter
Peak Flow
Sediment
Reach
1(RM 0-14.3)
Moderate
High
High
High
Moderate
2 (RM14.3-18.5)
High
High
Moderate
Low
Moderate
3 (RM 18.5-25.4)
High
High
Moderate
Moderate
Low
4 (RM 25.4-31)
High
High
Moderate
Low
Moderate
5 (Upstream of RM 31)
High
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Subbasin
Hutchinson
Moderate
High
High
Moderate
Moderate
Skookum
High
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Acme Valley
Low
High
High
Moderate
Moderate
Plumbago and Deer
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Edfro and Cavanaugh
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Howard
High
Low
Low
Moderate
Moderate
Upper South Fork
High
Low
Low
Moderate
Moderate
impact Potential
Low Impact
Moderate Impact (Mod)
High Impact
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Salmonids are particularly vulnerable to climate change because of their
ectothermic physiologies and anadromous life histories that require
migration through linear stream networks that are easily fragmented
(Isaak et al. 2010). According to Rieman and Isaak (2010, p. 1), "a rapidly
expanding literature" has indicated that climate change impacts on
temperature, flow, and sediment regimes could profoundly affect
physiology, behavior, and growth of individuals; phenology, growth,
dynamics, and distribution of populations; structure of communities; and
functioning of whole ecosystems.
The potential magnitude of the impact that climate change could have on
Pacific salmon species and life stages in the South Fork was evaluated for the
nine species of Pacific salmonids that inhabit the South Fork. Three salmon
species have been listed as threatened under the federal ESA and are of high
priority in the South Fork—spring Chinook salmon, summer steelhead trout,
and bull trout. For all species, the life stages with the greatest potential to
be impacted by the changing climate were evaluated during spawning and
intragravel development stages, with high potential also recorded for several
species during upstream migration/holding and rearing.
The three ESA listed species have several commonalities: They experience
summer and snowmelt adult migration and holding; year-round rearing
leading to exposure to climate change effects all year long; and spawning
areas above partial barriers. Also Chinook salmon and winter steelhead
trout have summer spawning and/or incubation. Figures 6-6, 6-8, and 6-9
show the species life stages overlaid with climate change vulnerabilities.
Figure 6-7 shows an example of the life-cycle temperature requirements
for Chinook compared to the future year-round temperature regime
predicted as a function of air temperature for the medium impact scenario
using a Mohseni empirical model (see EPA 2016 for details). The remaining
Jan Feb
Mar
Apr Mav
Jun Jul Aug Sep
Oct
Nov Dec
South Fork Entry
|
Upstream Migration/
Spawning
1
Intragravel Development
I
Age-0 rearing
Age-0 outmigration
|
Age-1+ rearing
Age-1+ outmigration
| - Increased Winter Peak Flows
- Increased Summer Temperatures
- Respective Life Stage Petiodicitoes
- Loss of Spring Snowmelt Reducing Discharge
- Decreased Summer Low Flows and Increased Temperatures
Figure 6-6. Chinook vulnerability to climate change impacts by life-cycle stage.
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Climate Change Pilot Project for the South Fork Nooksack River, Washington
Results
graphical displays of temperature requirements are provided in the full
qualitative report (EPA 2016). As shown, all life-cycle stages for the ESA
listed species are impacted in some way by the effects of climate change.
Restoration actions, the ability of each action to ameliorate climate change
effects, and the priority level for each technique are presented by South
Fork reach (Table 6-3) and subbasin (Table 6-4). Specific recommendations
for adaptation to address both legacy and climate change impacts are
presented by action type in Table 6-5.
iAdu|£mjgration^jeth^
Smoltification impairment-'
Juvenile rearing (optimum growth, full rations)-
Incubation and early fry
development
(upper threshold)'
Holding and spawning (optimal threshold)
2040s 2080s
3
1512
I
E10
£
8
CHINOOK
Historical 2020s
Figure 6-7. Chinook life-cycle temperature requirements plotted against predicted water
temperature at Potter Rd. for the medium impact scenario using a Mohseni Model {see
EPA, 2016).
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Climate Change Pilot Project for the South Fork Nooksack River, Washington
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WINTER-RUN
STEELHEAD
Upstream Migration
Holding
Spawning
Adult Outmigration
Intragravel Development
Juvenile Rearing
Juvenile Outmigration
- Increased Winter Peak Flows
_ - Increased Summer Temperatures
- Respective Life Stage Periodicities
— Loss of Spring Snowmelt Reducing Discharge
- Decreased Summer Low Flows and Increased Temperatures
SUMMER-RUN
STEELHEAD Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Upstream Migration
Spawning
Adult Outmigration
Intragravel Development
Juvenile Rearing
Juvenile Outmigration
Holding
Figure 6-8. Summer-run steelhead trout (upper half) and winter-run steelhead trout
(lower half) vulnerability to climate change impacts by life-cycle stage.
Jan Feb
Mar
Apr May
Jun
Jul Aug
Sep
Oct Nov Dec 11
Adult Upstream Migration
Subadult Upstream Migration
Subadult Overwinter Holding
1
Holding
Spawning
1
Adult Outmigration
Intragravel Development
1
Juvenile Rearing
1
Smolt Outmigration
- Increased Winter Peak Flows
- Increased Summer Temperatures
- Respective Life Stage Periodicities
- Loss of Spring Snowmelt Reducing Discharge
- Decreased Summer Low Flows and Increased Temperatures
Figure 6-9. Bull trout vulnerability to climate change impacts by life-cycle stage.
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Table 6-3. Recommended Restoration Actions for South Fork Reaches (Source: Beechie et al. 2013)
Category
Analogous South Fork
Technique
Ameliorates Climate Change Effects?3
Priority of Restoral
(by Reach
tion Action
4
Ameliorates
Temperature
Increase
Ameliorates
Base Flow
Decrease
Ameliorates
Peak Flow
Increase
Ameliorates
Sediment
Increasel
Increases
Salmon
Resilience
1
2
3
4
5
Longitudinal
Connectivity (Barrier
Removal)
Improve passage at natural
barriers
o
o
o
o
•
N/A
N/A
Mod
Mod
N/A
Floodplain
Reconnection
Hydromodification removal/
setback
•
o
•
•
•
High
High
High
High
Low
Low
Low
Low
Log jams to reconnect
floodplains
•
•
•
•
o
Low
Mod
Low
Low
Stream Flow
Regimes
Reduce water withdrawals
•
•
o
o
o
Low
N/A
N/A
N/A
Restore floodplain wetlands
•
•
o
Low
Mod
Low
Low
Erosion and
Sediment Delivery
Reduce stream-adjacent
sediment inputs (wood
placement to reduce toe
erosion)
o
o
o
o
o
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Riparian Functions
Planting (trees, other
vegetation)
•
o
o
o
o
High High High High High
High High High High High
High High High High High
Thinning or removal of
understory
o
o
o
o
o
Remove nonnative plants
Q
Q
o
o
o
Instream
Rehabilitation
Placement of log jams, other
wood
Q2
O
o
o
o
High
Low
High
Low
Low
Notes:
1 Beechie et al. (2013) did not evaluate potential for actions to
ameliorate increases in sediment. Call is based on best professional
judgment.
2Instream rehabilitation can ameliorate temperature increase by
creating temperature refuges, increasing hyporheic exchange by
encouraging bedform diversity, and narrowing active channel and
increasing effective shade.
5 Ability to Ameliorate Climate Change
Effects
•
Yes
o
No
Q
Context-dependent
4 Impact Potential
Low Impact
Moderate Impact (Mod)
High Impact
-------
Table 6-4. Recommended Restoration Actions for South Fork Subbasins (Source: Beechie et al. 2013
Ameliorates Climate Change
Effects?3
Priority of Restoration Action
(by Reach)4
Category
Common Techniques
Analogous South
Fork Technique
Ameliorates
Temperature
Increase
Ameliorates
Base Flow
Decrease
Ameliorates
Peak Flow
Increase
Ameliorates
Sediment
Increase
Increases
Salmon
Resilience
Acme
Hutchinson
Skookum
Edfro/
Cavanaugh
Plumbago/
Deer
Howard
Upper South
Fork
Longitudinal
Connectivity
Barrier or culvert
replacement
Barrier or culvert
replacement
o
o
o
o
• >
Mod
Mod
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Improve passage
at natural barriers
o
o
o
o
• '
Low
Low
Mod
Low
Low
Low
Low
Stream Flow
Regimes
Reduce water
withdrawals, restore
Reduce
withdrawals
•
•
o
o
o
High
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
summer base flow
Restore flood plain
wetlands
• 2
•
o
o
o
High
Lows
Low5
Low5
Low5
Low5
Low5
Disconnect road drainage
from streams
Disconnect road
drainage from
streams
o
o
•
•
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low6
Erosion and
Sediment
Delivery
Landslide hazard
reduction (sidecast/ fill
removal)
Landslide
hazard reduction
(sidecast/fill
removal)
o
o
o
•
o
Low7
Low7
Low7
Low7
Low7
Low7
Low7
Riparian
Functions
Planting (trees, other
vegetation)
•
o
o
o
o
Thinning or removal of
understory
Riparian
treatments
o
o
o
o
o
High
High
Mod
Mod
Mod
Mod
Mod
Remove nonnative plants
Q
Q
o
o
o
Instream
Rehabilitation
Addition of log structures,
log jams
Placement of log
jams, other wood
Q
o
o
o
o
Mod/
Low8
Mod/
Low8
Mod/
Low8
Mod/
Low8
Mod/
Low8
Mod/
Low8
Mod/
Low8
Sources:
1 Beechie et al. 2006; Waples et al. 2006.
2 Poole etal. 2008; Arrigoni etal. 2008.
3 Beechie et al. 2005.
Notes:
4 Techniques and amelioration effects not cited individually are from Beechie et al. 2013.
5 Prioritization deferred pending analysis of beaver restoration potential.
6 Upper South Fork subbasin is federal ownership. USFS is underfunded for road maintenance, so
more information is needed to evaluate priority.
7 Prioritization deferred pending development of sediment budget to quantify relative contributions
of sediment sources.
8 Moderate priority applies to cold-water tributaries (temperatures more than 2 °C cooler than the
South Fork).
9 Ability to Ameliorate Climate Change
Effects
•
Yes
o
No
Q
Context-dependent
10 Impact Potential
Low Impact
Moderate Impact (Mod)
High Impact
Moderate/Low
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Climate Change Pilot Project for the South Fork Nooksack River, Washington
Results
Table 6-5. Summary of recommended actions for the South Fork
Restoration arid _ .
_ ^ Recommendations
Protection Action
Floodplain
Reconnection
• Increase the pace of broader scale floodplain reconnection projects by
increasing opportunity by acquiring conservation easements or fee simple
title to property in the floodplain or otherwise working with existing
landowners to increase stewardship. In addition, work with landowners
and develop plans that facilitate floodplain reconnection on specific
parcels.
Restoring Stream
Flow Regimes
• Enforce water rights and incentivize water conservation in the lower
South Fork valley to the maximum extent possible (e.g., water banking).
• Develop a ground water-flow model coupled with a watershed model
for the South Fork basin to evaluate future development/restoration
scenarios to inform land-use decisions and identify and prioritize
floodplain wetland restoration projects.
Riparian Functions
• Continue to implement and expand the Conservation Reserve
Enhancement Program (CREP) through the lower South Fork and seek
funding to extend 15-year lease terms and/or otherwise work to protect
existing CREP buffers over the long term.
• Increase opportunity and funding for riparian restoration along the lower
South Fork through purchase of conservation easements, development
rights, and/or fee simple title and/or working with landowners to foster
stewardship.
Instream
Rehabilitation
• Continue and increase the pace of instream restoration projects in high-
priority reaches of the South Fork that create cold-water refuges, increase
effective shading, promote hyporheic exchange, reconnect floodplain
channels, reduce redd scour, and create flood refuge habitat.
Planning
• Incorporate climate change considerations into updates of WRIA 1
Salmonid Recovery Plan and development and prioritization of projects for
Salmon Recovery Funding Board/Puget Sound Acquisition and Restoration
Account funding.
• Develop a watershed management/conservation plan that facilitates the
South Fork temperature TMDL implementation plan and comprehensively
addresses the impacts of land management and climate change on the
ecological health of the South Fork watershed.
Monitoring,
Research,
and Adaptive
Management
• Develop life-cycle models for South Fork salmonid populations to identify
limiting life stages and support quantitative assessment of climate
change impacts on salmon recovery.
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Climate Change Pilot Project for the South Fork Nooksack River, Washington
7.0 Discussion
Climate change is an emerging field of study and practice for scientists,
policy-makers, and local stakeholders. There are no agreed-upon
methodologies or approaches to incorporating climate change
considerations into watershed management planning tools. This project
provided an opportunity to use climate change risk and adaptation
concepts developed by the IPCC and USGCRP and apply them using the
South Fork watershed as a pilot. This section reflects on how some of these
key concepts were interpreted and applied in this project with the intent of
identifying practical considerations and initial lessons learned.
The project team first sought to develop a stepwise research approach that
could be easily replicated and scaled (see Figure 4-2). The project, including
formulation of the quantitative and qualitative assessments, was generally
structured to follow the USGCRP resilience framework to explore climate
threats, assess vulnerability and risks, investigate options, prioritize
actions, and take action.11 Importantly, the project team recognized the
necessity of moving from climate change vulnerability assessment to
adaptation actions. The quantitative assessment modeled projected climate
change impacts and future stream conditions of the South Fork (Butcher
et al. 2016). The qualitative assessment used that information to explore
the vulnerability and risk thresholds of South Fork salmonids (EPA 2016).
The quantitative assessment focused on riparian restoration to maximize
stream shading, which is the approach used in most temperature TMDLs
in forested watersheds. In contrast, the qualitative assessment identified
and then prioritized a suite of adaptation strategies. Both assessments were
designed to provide direct input into the South Fork temperature TMDL
implementation plan and ESA salmon recovery plan, so that watershed
managers can act on the findings. Thus, the quantitative and qualitative
assessments were structured to synergistically amplify each other and to
provide actionable information that could provide direct input into existing
watershed regulatory tools. The pilot research project approach seeks to
bridge the gaps between science, policy, and practice; thus, moving to
actionable science.
Climate change presents temporal challenges beyond the traditional risk
management paradigm—the uncertainty surrounding the magnitude and
consequences of future impacts complicates climate change adaptation
planning. EPA has a rich history of risk assessment, and the project team
leveraged the Agency's traditional risk assessment paradigm to develop an
iterative adaptive risk management framework. As presented in Figure 3-2,
climate change is considered an additional stressor to the environment.
11 As illustrated and described in the USGCRP Toolkit, which is located online here
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Climate Change Pilot Project for the South Fork Nooksack River, Washington
Discussion
Climate change risk is analyzed through a characterization of exposure
and ecological effects, with risk continually reevaluated as new data is
acquired. An iterative adaptive risk management framework is a flexible
process that uses a research, evaluation, monitoring, and learning
process (cycle) to improve future management strategies. Important to
this project, an iterative adaptive risk management framework provides
a process of learning by doing, whereby there is continued adaptation to
improve outcomes (USGCRP 2014). The pilot project approach and parallel
study strategy allowed the project team to concurrently accomplish the
research objective of exploring how climate change considerations could
be incorporated into the TMDL implementation plan and the regulatory
objective of developing the South Fork temperature TMDL. It is hoped
that this structure provides a process so that as new information becomes
available, the TMDL implementation plan and future ESA salmon recovery
updates monitor effectiveness of the proposed strategies and adjust as
necessary (e.g., based on new information and lessons learned).
Perhaps most critically, the project team recognized the significance of
the role of local stakeholders in the ultimate success of this pilot research
project. Local stakeholders are responsible for implementing proposed
adaptation options and using the adaptive management framework. The
project was structured as a stakeholder-centric process, whereby:
¦ Stakeholder input provided the basis for problem formulation and
approach (specifically through initial project kick-off activities
including the June 2012 stakeholder workshop and October 2012
stakeholder engagement and project scoping facilitation meeting).
¦ Key stakeholders were also leaders —four staff of the Nooksack
Indian Tribe served as lead authors of the qualitative assessment.
The Nooksack Indian Tribe are key implementers of recovery actions
and authors of the current ESA salmon recovery plan.
¦ An inclusive stakeholder engagement process was developed (via
the VIDT) to interact with all relevant stakeholders at key project
milestones.
¦ The stakeholder organizational approach was embedded within the
local watershed management structure, WRIA 1. Project activities
were closely coordinated with the WRIA 1 salmon recovery and
management teams, with the Nooksack Indian Tribe serving as the
nexus of this integrated approach.
Stakeholder engagement was considered a critical component of the pilot
research project and strategic opportunities for engagement and awareness
building were provided throughout the life of the project. The dynamic
stakeholder engagement process used in this project (and described in
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Climate Change Pilot Project for the South Fork Nooksack River, Washington
Discussion
section 5) fostered the shared production
of knowledge on climate change risks and
adaptation options for the South Fork
watershed. The shared or coproduction
of knowledge is described as a means "to
produce usable climate science knowledge
through a process of collaboration
between scientists and decision makers"
(Meadow et al. 2010, p.l). The objective
is to yield better adaptation strategies
and outcomes. The pilot research project
team generated robust interaction
between scientists, policy makers, and
local stakeholders to coproduce climate
change information that is actionable Adult Chinook. Credit: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
within the context of the South Fork. The
project team also embedded the process
in existing governance structures so the project networks and findings are
sustainable and can be carried on past the life of this project.
The project team used a deliberate approach to identifying and applying
the latest climate change science and approaches to this pilot research
project. In addition to the technical findings and recommendations
described in this report, the following overarching lessons identified by the
project team are considered important to the pilot project:
¦ Although considerable uncertainty (e.g., from future greenhouse
gas emissions and ability of models to simulate responses of future
climate) surrounds future climate change conditions and impacts,
risk assessment and management is not an entirely new construct.
The temporal challenges of climate change can be easily integrated
into traditional risk approaches by using adaptive management
frameworks. Pilot projects provide opportunities to learn by
doing and to update adaptive management frameworks and policy
approaches in the near term.
¦ Stakeholder engagement should be structured to build relationships
and communication channels between scientists, policy makers, and
stakeholders that foster the coproduction of knowledge and yield
more effective adaptation strategies and outcomes.
¦ Embedding climate change risk assessment and adaptation planning
in existing watershed management governance and planning
frameworks helps to ensure the uptake and implementation of
recommendations and strengthens the possibility that an adaptive
management framework will be used in the future.
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Climate Change Pilot Project for the South Fork Nooksack River, Washington
Discussion
¦ The potential to see results and scale pilot activities greatly benefits
from robust stakeholder engagement, as such a process can increase
the potential that stakeholders will embrace, and ultimately
implement, the resulting recommendations.
As a pilot demonstration project, the South Fork pilot research project can
be applied to other watersheds in the Nooksack River basin with similar
species, limiting factors, and restoration planning such as the Middle
Fork and North Fork Nooksack rivers, and the lower mainstem of the
Nooksack River. The involvement of members of the WRIA 1 watershed
management and salmon recovery staff teams in this pilot is considered
critical to extending the application to other WRI A 1 watersheds. The
pilot research project can also be applied in other watersheds across the
country, although the procedures and methods may differ depending on
site specific considerations, existing information, and watershed tools (e.g.,
TMDL modeling tools). The key steps of the quantitative and qualitative
assessment are summarized in the call out boxes below, along with a
few key take away messages for the application of these steps in other
watersheds. It is recommended that an initial step
for any practitioner that is interested in applying
these methods in a local watershed context is to read
the quantitative and qualitative assessments as the
methods and findings are fully described and provide
important context and detail.
.S. Geological Survey
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Climate Change Pilot Project for the South Fork Nooksack River, Washington
Discussion
Quantitative Assessment
Key Steps and Take-Away Messages on Application to other Watersheds
The quantitative assessment provides a demonstration of how climate change can be incorporated into the modeling
that supports a temperature TMDL. The quantitative assessment contains six general steps:
1. Water Quality Response Model: Developing a TMDL and associated point source wasteload allocations and
nonpoint source load allocations requires a linkage analysis that relates stressor inputs to criteria outcomes
using either a process-based or empirical model. For the South Fork Nooksack temperature TMDL, the
0UAL2KW model provides a process-based linkage between thermal inputs and water temperature response.
2. Evaluate Critical Conditions: The TMDL must protect uses across a range of conditions, including critical
conditions of high risk. For a temperature TMDL, this involves assuring that criteria are achieved under warm,
late summer conditions with high thermal inputs and low instream flows. These critical conditions determine
the type of information that is needed for assessing risk associated with future climate projections.
3. Select Climate Scenarios: Climate models contain uncertainty regarding the course of future climate and no
model is a perfect predictor of what will happen. It is important to look at an ensemble of climate models to
approximate the envelope of future conditions to which adaptation may be needed.
4. Derive Future Boundary Conditions: Output of selected climate scenarios is processed to provide alternative
boundary conditions (e.g., weather, streamflow) for the TMDL critical conditions. It is important to use data that
have been processed via downscaling designed to correct for bias and provide results that are appropriate to
the spatial scale of the problem of interest.
5. Apply Response Model: Once future boundary conditions are assembled, the TMDL water quality response
model can be run for multiple future climate conditions along with different implementation options.
6. Interpret the Results: The quantitative assessment can be thought of as an embedded ecological risk
assessment that is intended to help inform TMDL development and associated implementation plans that take
into account potential needs for climate adaptation.
Note that most of these steps are part of the standard TMDL development process, the difference here being that
alternate future climate conditions are incorporated into the analysis in Steps 3 and 4. The general process would be
applicable to assessment of water quality concerns other than temperature.
The quantitative assessment for the South Fork Nooksack River shows one way that a specific set of tools and analyses
can be successfully used to complete the six steps shown above. The details are intended to be informative, but not
proscriptive. Indeed, there are a variety of ways in which the six steps could be completed, at varying levels of effort.
For the South Fork Nooksack River plentiful continuous monitoring of water temperature was available at multiple
locations, enabling the calibration of a detailed temperature response model (OUAL2Kw in this case, but other models
could have been used instead). An analysis could also have been performed with less data and/or less resources, for
instance by pursuing an empirical statistical analysis that relates water temperature to weather conditions. While a
simpler approach may introduce additional uncertainty, it can still be informative. The important point is to evaluate the
risks that may be associated with future climate to plan for and maximize implementation success over the longer term.
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Climate Change Pilot Project for the South Fork Nooksack River, Washington
Discussion
Qualitative Assessment
Key Steps and Take-Away Messages on Application to other Watersheds
The qualitative assessment provides a demonstration of incorporating climate change risk into salmonid recovery
planning in the South Fork to support a TMDL implementation plan and ESA salmon recovery plan. The qualitative
assessment contains five general steps, which is adapted from Restoring Salmon Habitat for a Changing Climate (Beechie
eta I. 2012):
1. Define the Geographic Scale of Analysis: The impacts of climate change will vary among rivers and will
include several different climate risks (e.g., increase in temperature, decrease in base flow, increase in peak
flow). In turn, the risks to salmonid populations can vary according to salmonid species (e.g., impairing
optimal temperature thresholds according to life cycle). The first step in applying the Beechie method is for
practitioners to determine the geographical scale of the climate change assessment. Considerations when
determining the scale of the assessment include the resources available to conduct the assessment, data
availability and coverage, and units used for planning efforts to date.
2. Identify Projected Climate Change Risk: This step involves assessing the projected impacts of climate change
to the respective geographic region, relative to changes that have already occurred. For the South Fork, the
OUAL2kw modeling runs conducted for the quantitative assessment provided future climate change scenarios
that were assessed per river mile.
3. Evaluate the Impacts by Salmonid Species: Salmonids have species-specific tolerances and life history
requirements which are important criteria in determining how changes in temperature and stream flow will
impact the salmon population. The development of visualization tools can assist in understanding life cycle
impacts and priority vulnerabilities to the respective species (refer to Figures 6-6 and 6-7).
4. Evaluate the Impacts by Restoration Action: Restoration actions can then be prioritized based on the ability to
ameliorate various climate change impacts and/or increase salmon resilience, and on the potential effectiveness of
each restoration action. For the South Fork, restoration actions were prioritized by reach and subbasin.
5. Document the Results: The results of the analysis can be used to inform relevant watershed, land-use,
and restoration planning efforts and tools. In this case, the results were used to develop the South Fork
temperature TMDL implementation plan. The qualitative assessment will also be used to inform future ESA
salmon recovery plans for the South Fork.
As illustrated in this case study, the Beechie method can be tailored fairly easily for salmon recovery efforts in other
watersheds. There was considerable effort on the part of the Nooksack Indian Tribe to conduct research and develop
visualization tools and graphics to assist with the evaluation of climate change impacts by salmonid species. These
graphics are considered particularly helpful in mapping out the complicated relationships between species life stage
periodicity, species distribution with temperature requirements, and future climate change projections. But, if the
information is not available or time/resources insufficient, then assumptions can be made and plotted.
A particularly important aspect of the qualitative assessment is the reliance on local knowledge and use of robust
stakeholder methods. Local stakeholders have an understanding of historic and current conditions, lessons learned
on the application of salmon recovery efforts, and engaging these stakeholders in project activities makes it more
likely that the findings and recommendations will be embraced and ultimately implemented. The special status of the
Nooksack Indian Tribe as leaders of the qualitative assessment is considered critical, as the tribe plays a key role in on-
the-ground implementation.
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Climate Change Pilot Project for the South Fork Nooksack River, Washington
55
8.0 Conclusions
The climate change analysis conducted for the quantitative assessment
was designed to provide an understanding of potential climate change
impacts (magnitude and timing) on stream temperature and streamflow
(Butcher et al. 2016). TMDLs—and, by extension, their implementation
plans—have typically been developed using historic data, based on the
assumption that climate is stable. That type of TMDL might not accurately
represent conditions under potential future climate regimes. In the past,
data for estimating future impacts of climate change have not been readily
available to state agencies, who are responsible for developing TMDLs.
The evaluation of climate change vulnerability can help inform the South
Fork TMDL implementation plan. Climate change is time-dependent.
The pace (timing/rate) and priorities of restoration actions for TMDL
implementation to protect against potential impacts of climate change are
key components of an iterative risk management strategy. A key finding
of the quantitative analysis for the South Fork is that the shade associated
with system potential vegetation (SPV shade) can likely provide substantial
resiliency into the future that will help protect beneficial uses, especially if
South Fork Nooksack River. Credit: Nooksack Tribe
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Climate Change Pilot Project for the South Fork Nooksack River, Washington
Conclusions
combined with other actions that provide cold-water refuges during high-
temperature periods (Butcher et al. 2016). To approach achieving SPV
(60-70-year-old trees) by the 2080s, planting should occur now and
riparian areas along the mainstem South Fork should be protected.
The modeling analysis of water temperature associated with future
climate change in the South Fork watershed suggests a significant effect
on maximum temperature in the river that could substantially reduce
preferred salmon habitat. It is important to remember, however, that
TMDL modeling analysis is purposefully based on an analysis of reasonable
worst-case conditions (7010 flow combined with 90th percentile annual air
temperature maximum) that could occur at a sufficiently low frequency
so as to allow recovery or adaptation of the population. The analyses
of more typical 702 conditions still suggest significant stress on the
salmon population, but are not nearly as dire as the 7010 flow projections.
Many rivers within the current salmon range, including the Snake and
Willamette river basins, have monitored temperatures above published
lethal or protective thresholds, yet salmon currently occupy the majority of
those rivers (Beechie et al. 2012).
While the modeling scenarios show that restoring SPV shade will have a
strong beneficial impact on the summer temperature regime in the South
Fork, future climate scenarios predict water temperature regimes that
increasingly deviate from preferred habitat for salmon. The impact of
occasional high-temperature events is in large part determined by whether
the fish can find sufficient cold-water refuges that are cooler than the reach
average and within their physiological tolerance ranges. The qualitative
assessment was conducted to analyze a range of restoration strategies,
and particularly smaller scale habitat management activities considered
important to protect the resource (EPA 2016).
The qualitative assessment evaluated restoration actions that address
legacy, ongoing, and future climate change impacts within each South
Fork reach and subbasin (EPA 2016). From a watershed-scale perspective,
channel conditions and legacy impacts today are directly related to
intensive and extensive land management. Forestry dominates the
watershed and timber harvest and logging road construction are likely
the largest contributors to the legacy impacts. As discussed earlier, the
quantitative assessment findings indicate that restoring the riparian
zone of the mainstem of the South Fork alone is not enough to ameliorate
excessive temperatures in the river. That outcome strongly suggests that
additional study of salmon recovery efforts is required to identify other
watershed-scale actions that will address both legacy impacts and future
continued climate change.
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Climate Change Pilot Project for the South Fork Nooksack River, Washington
Conclusions
57
The qualitative assessment found that the most important actions to
implement to ameliorate the impacts of climate change in the South
Fork watershed are riparian restoration, floodplain reconnect ion,
wetland restoration, and placement of log jams (EPA 2016). Most of
these actions will require substantial planning—including a watershed
conservation plan, project feasibility assessments, agency consultation,
landowner cooperation, stakeholder involvement, and funding—if they are
to be implemented in a manner that will effectively address the cumulative
effects of legacy impacts and climate change on salmonids and ESA
recovery. These parameters will require a substantial amount of time to
work through and become effective. The qualitative assessment thus urges
that the recommended actions it presents are considered and implemented
in a timely fashion to support a climate-resilient ecosystem and ESA
recovery (EPA 2016).
There is considerable overlap between existing salmon recovery priorities
and those considered to be climate ready priorities. Adapting salmon
recovery plans to incorporate climate change considerations is unlikely to
require wholesale change, but rather a dramatic increase in the scale and
pace of implementation. For the South Fork watershed, where Chinook
spawner abundances are critically low, current salmon recovery priorities
have emphasized actions likely to produce immediate benefit. Although it
is still extremely important to boost Chinook abundance and productivity
in the near-term, the qualitative assessment has encouraged a broadening
of the restoration planning horizon. The greatest discrepancy between
current and climate ready salmon recovery priorities is the elevated
priority of actions with longer time scale-to-benefit ratios (e.g.,
riparian and wetland restoration).
Adapting salmon recovery plans
to incorporate climate change
considerations is unlikely to
require wholesale change, but
rather a dramatic increase in the
scale and pace of implementation.
While climate projections often seem dire, the importance of taking
action now to offset future impacts could help motivate restoration
practitioners and resource managers to redouble their efforts to address
barriers to implementation. Highlighting the benefits of restoration on
ecosystem services (i.e., reducing flood risk to downstream communities
by reconnecting floodplains) might increase opportunity for restoration.
Finally, climate change will force freshwater ecosystems beyond
the historic range of variability, necessitating the development and
implementation of novel restoration tools and strategies.
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*>EPA
United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
Western Ecology Division
National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory
Office of Research and Development
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Corvallis, OR 97333
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