Light-Duty Automotive Technology,
Carbon Dioxide Emissions, and
Fuel Economy Trends:
1975 Through 2017
Executive
United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
EPA-420-S-18-001 January 2018
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Executive
Summary
Introduction
This report is the authoritative reference for carbon dioxide (C02) emissions, fuel economy, and
powertrain technology trends for new personal vehicles in the United States. The data supporting this
report were obtained by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), directly from automobile
manufacturers, in support of EPA's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the U.S. Department of
Transportation's National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) Corporate Average Fuel
Economy (CAFE) programs. These data have been collected and maintained by EPA since 1975 and
comprise the most comprehensive database of its kind. This report (the "Trends" report) has been
published annually since 1975 and covers all passenger cars, sport utility vehicles, minivans, and all but
the largest pickup trucks and vans.
Data for model years (MY) 1975 through 2016 are final. These data are submitted to the EPA and NHTSA
at the conclusion of the model year and include actual production data and the results of emission and
fuel economy testing performed by the manufacturers and EPA. Data for MY 2017 are preliminary and
based on projected production data provided to EPA by automakers for vehicle certification and labeling
prior to MY 2017 sales. MY 2017 values will be finalized in next year's report. All data in this report are
based on production volumes delivered for sale in the U.S. by model year, and may vary from publicized
data based on calendar year sales.
All of the tailpipe C02 emissions and fuel economy values in this Executive Summary are adjusted
values, which are very similar to new vehicle Fuel Economy and Environment Labels and are EPA's best
estimate of nationwide "real world" C02 emissions and fuel consumption. EPA periodically updates the
methodology used for these calculations based on the best available data. In this report, an updated
methodology was applied to MY 2011 and later vehicles. Therefore, the values in this report are
not comparable to values in previous reports. For a detailed discussion of fuel economy values and
calculation methodology, see Section 10 of the full report.
This report does not provide formal compliance values for EPA C02 emissions standards and NHTSA CAFE
standards. Information about automaker compliance with EPA's GHG emissions standards is available in
EPA's Manufacturer Performance Report at www.epa.gov/regulations-emissions-vehicles-and-engines/
ghg-emission-standards-light-duty-vehicles-manufacturer. Information about automaker compliance
with NHTSA's CAFE standards is available at NHTSA's CAFE Public Information Center at https://one.
nhtsa.gov/cafe_pic/CAFE_PIC_Home.htm.
It is important to note that the Department of Justice, on behalf of EPA, alleged violations of the Clean
Air Act by Fiat Chrysler Automobiles based on the sale of certain 2014 through 2016 model year vehicles
equipped with devices that defeat the vehicles' emission control systems. In addition, the Department of
Justice and EPA have reached a settlement with Volkswagen over the use of defeat devices for certain
2009 through 2016 model year vehicles. In this report, EPA uses the C02 emissions and fuel economy
data from the initial certification of these vehicles. Should the investigation and corrective actions yield
different C02 and fuel economy data, any relevant changes will be used in future reports. For more
information on actions to resolve these alleged violations, see www.epa.gov/fca and www.epa.gov/vw.
The full version of this report and appendices are available at www.epa.gov/fuel-economy-trends.
ES2
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Highlight
Average new vehicle C02 emissions fell by 2 grams per mile to a record
low, and fuel economy increased 0.1 miles per gallon to a record high
The final MY 2016 adjusted, real world C02 emissions rate for all new personal vehicles is
359 g/mi, which is a 2 g/mi decrease from MY 2015 and the lowest level ever. The MY 2016
adjusted fuel economy is 24.7 mpg, which is 0.1 mpg higher than MY 2015, and is a record
high.
Both cars and trucks reached record adjusted fuel economy in MY 2016. The average MY 2016
adjusted fuel economy for cars increased to 28.5 mpg, a 0.3 mpg increase over MY 2015.
MY 2016 trucks also increased 0.1 mpg to 21.2 mpg.
The greatest value of the historical Trends database is the documentation of long-term
trends. Since MY 2004, C02 emissions and fuel economy have improved in ten out of twelve
years, and decreased only twice. C02emissions have decreased by 102 g/mi, or 22%, and
fuel economy has increased by 5.4 mpg, or 28%, with an average annual improvement of
about 0.5 mpg per year.
Preliminary MY 2017 adjusted C02emissions are projected to be 352 g/mi and fuel economy
is projected to be 25.2 mpg, which would be a further improvement over MY 2016. These
values are based on production estimates provided by automakers throughout 2016.
MY 2017 values will be finalized in next year's report.
Adjusted C02 Emissions for MY 1975-20171 Adjusted Fuel Economy for MY 1975-20171
30
CD
CL
5- 25
E
o
Car
rn 20
Both
(D
Truck
(/)
=3
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
800
0 700
E
ui
| 600
0)
Truck
o 500
T3
0
Both
H—'
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Highlight
Fuel economy continues to increase while weight and power
have leveled off
Vehicle weight and power are two important design parameters that help determine a
vehicle's C02 emissions and fuel economy.
For nearly two decades through MY 2004, on a fleetwide basis, automotive technology
innovation was generally utilized to support vehicle attributes other than C02 emissions
and fuel economy, such as weight, performance, utility, and other attributes. Beginning in
MY 2005, technology has generally been used to increase both fuel economy (which has
reduced C02 emissions) and power, while keeping vehicle weight relatively constant.
The average weight for new vehicles produced in MY 2016 was 4,035 pounds, which was
unchanged from MY 2015 although the weight of an average new car fell by 23 pounds,
and the weight of an average new truck fell by 24 pounds. The 2.1% increase in truck share
offset the weight reductions in cars and trucks, so that overall new vehicle weight was
relatively unchanged.
Average new vehicle horsepower (hp) was also basically unchanged in MY 2016, as the
average vehicle was 1 hp higher than MY 2015. With an average 230 hp, new vehicles
remain at a record high average horsepower. Car horsepower was down by 1 hp and truck
horsepower increased by 1 hp. The average 0-to-60 mph acceleration time was the same
in MY 2016 as MY 2015.
Preliminary MY 2017 values suggest that average weight will be up 9 pounds and
horsepower up 2 hp. EPA will not have final MY 2017 data until next year's report.
Change in Adjusted Fuel Economy, Weight, and Horsepower for MY 1975-2017
Adjusted Fuel Economy
Horsepower
Weight
Model Year
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Highlight
Sport utility vehicles reached record high market share, while also
achieving record low C02 emissions and record high fuel economy
In this report, vehicles are disaggregated into five vehicle types: car, car SUV, truck SUV,
pickup truck, and minivan/van. Car SUVs are generally smaller 2WD SUVs that are considered
cars for purposes of compliance with the GHG emissions and fuel economy standards.
Car SUVs had the largest production share increase of any vehicle type in MY 2016, up 1.3
percentage points to a record 12% of all production. Truck SUVs reached a record market
share of 29%, resulting in a record 41% market share for combined SUVs in MY 2016. Car
SUVs had the largest increase in fuel economy, at 1.1 mpg. Both car SUVs and truck SUVs
achieved record high fuel economy and record low C02 emissions, with car SUVs reaching
26.2 mpg and truck SUVs reaching 22.2 mpg.
Pickup trucks increased fuel economy by 0.1 mpg. Pickup trucks are now at their highest
recorded fuel economy, tied with the fuel economy achieved in MY 1986 (when trucks were
much smaller and on average weighed one third less than new trucks today).
All five vehicle types have steadily increased fuel economy in recent years and are at or
near their record high fuel economy levels. However, the market shift towards SUVs has
offset some of the fleetwide benefits that otherwise would have been achieved due to the
increased fuel economy within each vehicle type. Light trucks, which include pickups, truck
SUVs, and minivans/vans, increased market share 2 percentage points in MY 2016, to 45%
of production. This remains below the record light truck share of 48% reached in MY 2004.
Preliminary MY 2017 data suggests that overall truck share will drop in MY 2017; however,
this projection is particularly uncertain given market conditions and low gasoline prices.
Production Share and Adjusted Fuel Economy by Vehicle Type for MY 1975-2017
100%
Truck SUV
Truck SUV
Minivan/Van
Minivan/Van
Pickup
Pickup
—i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1— —i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 r
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 1975 1980 1985 19901995 2000 2005 2010 20152020
Model Year Model Year
ES5
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Highlight
I Average new vehicle footprint remains stable
Footprint is an important measure of vehicle size that is defined as the area enclosed by
the tires of the vehicle (i.e., wheelbase multiplied by average track width). Both the GHG
emissions and fuel economy standards rely on footprint to determine vehicle GHG and fuel
economy targets. EPA began collecting industry-wide footprint data in MY 2008.
The average footprint within each of the five vehicle types has been relatively stable
between MY 2008 and MY 2016. The average footprint for pickup trucks increased 1.5 ft2
(2.4%); cars increased 1 ft2 (2.1%); minivans/vans increased 1.0 ft2 (1.9%); truck SUVs
increased 0.4 ft2 (0.7%); and car SUVs were down 0.2 ft2 (-0.4%).
The overall new vehicle average footprint has also been stable between MY 2008 and
MY 2016. The overall average is influenced by the trends within each vehicle type, as well
as the mix of new vehicles produced. Since MY 2008, market share has shifted towards car
SUVs and truck SUVs, and away from cars, pickups, and minivans/vans. The result of this
shift, and the accompanying footprint changes within each vehicle type, is that between
MY 2008 and MY 2016 the overall industry footprint increased by 0.6 ft2 (1.2%), to 49.5 ft2.
Preliminary MY 2017 values are essentially unchanged from MY 2016. The overall new
vehicle average footprint is projected to stay the same, at 49.5 ft2.
Footprint by Vehicle Type for MY 2008-2017
70-
65-
£* 60-
w
c 55-
Q.
O
o
LL 50-
45-
40-
Pickup -
Minivan/Van
Truck
SUV FleetwideAvg
I
Car ' '
i 1 1 ¦ ¦ r
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Model Year
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Highlight
Seven of the 13 largest manufacturers decreased C02 emissions
and improved fuel economy in MY 2016
Seven of the thirteen manufacturers shown below decreased C02 emissions and five
increased fuel economy from MY 2015 to MY 2016.
In MY 2016, Mazda had the lowest fleetwide average adjusted C02 emissions and highest
adjusted fuel economy performance, followed closely by Hyundai, Honda, Subaru, and
Nissan. Fiat-Chrysler2 had the highest C02 emissions and lowest fuel economy. Hyundai had
the largest reduction in adjusted C02 emissions from MY 2015 to MY 2016, at 15 g/mile.
Four manufacturers increased average adjusted C02 emissions between MY 2015 and
MY 2016. This is partially explained by increases in truck share for all four, however other
companies such as Mazda and Kia had large increases in truck share while improving
overall fuel economy.
Preliminary values suggest that nearly all manufacturers will improve in MY 2017, though
these projections are uncertain, and EPA will not have final MY 2017 data until next year's
report.
MY 2015-2017 Manufacturer Adjusted Fuel Economy and Adjusted C02 Emissions1
MY2017
MY 2015 Final MY 2016 Final Preliminary
Manufacturer
Adj. Fuel
Economy
(MPG)
C02
(g/mi)
Adj. Fuel
Economy
(MPG)
Change
from MY
2015
(MPG)
co2
(g/mi)
Change
from MY
2015
(g/mi)
Adj. Fuel
Economy
(MPG)
C02
(g/mi)
Mazda
29.2
304
29.6
+0.4
301
-3
29.3
304
Hyundai
27.5
324
28.8
+1.3
309
-15
28.9
307
Honda
28.5
312
28.2
-0.3
315
+3
29.5
301
Subaru
28.1
317
28.1
0
317
0
28.4
312
Nissan
28.0
316
27.9
-0.1
318
+2
27.9
317
Kia
26.1
341
26.2
+0.1
338
-3
27.5
323
BMW
26.1
342
25.5
-0.6
349
+7
25.6
347
Toyota
25.0
356
25.0
0
355
-1
26.0
341
Mercedes
23.4
381
23.7
+0.3
376
-5
24.2
366
Ford
22.8
389
22.8
0
389
0
22.8
390
GM
22.2
399
22.4
+0.2
397
-2
23.0
386
Volkswagen2
26.6
339
26.6
0.0
334
-5
26.3
337
Fiat-Chrysler2
21.8
409
21.5
-0.3
413
+4
21.5
413
All
24.6
361
24.7
+0.1
359
-2
25.2
352
1 Adjusted C02 and fuel economy values reflect real world performance and are not comparable to automaker standards
compliance levels. Adjusted C02 values are higher and adjusted fuel economy values are lower than compliance values.
2 Volkswagen and FCA (Fiat-Chrysler) are listed separately in this table due to an ongoing investigation and/or corrective actions.
These data are based on initial certification data, and are included in industry-wide or "All" values. Should the investigation
and corrective actions yield different C02 and fuel economy data, any relevant changes will be used in future reports.
ES7
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Highlight
Manufactures continue to adopt a wide array of advanced
technologies
Technological innovation is a major driving force in the industry. Though the industry overall
has adopted several technologies quickly in recent years, individual manufacturers are clearly
utilizing different technologies to achieve C02 emissions, fuel economy, and performance
goals. The figure below illustrates projected manufacturer-specific technology adoption for
MY 2017.
Gasoline direct injection (GDI) has achieved widespread use by many manufacturers and is
projected to be used on over half of all vehicles in MY 2017. This is particularly impressive
since GDI was used in fewer than 3% of vehicles as recently as MY 2008. All Mazda engines
are projected to use GDI in MY 2017, with several other manufacturers at nearly 100%
adoption. Turbochargers, which are often used in conjunction with GDI, have also increased
market share to 25% in MY 2017, led by BMW, Mercedes, VW, and Ford.
Transmission technology has also changed rapidly with about 24% of MY 2017 vehicles
projected to use transmissions that have seven or more speeds, with an additional 24%
relying on continuously variable transmissions (CVT). Subaru, Nissan, and Honda are leading
in adoption of CVTs, while Mercedes, BMW, and Fiat-Chrysler lead in the adoption of
transmissions with seven or more speeds. Mercedes and BMW are the leading manufacturers
for non-hybrid stop/start, and GM and Honda are utilizing cylinder deactivation the most.
Manufacturer Adoption of Emerging Technologies for MY 2017
GDI Turbo
o
o
"O
o
~0
CD
O
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Highlight
Consumers have an increasing number of high fuel economy/
iow C02 vehicle choices
In MY 2017, consumers have more choices when shopping for vehicles with higher fuel
economy and lower tailpipe C02 emissions compared to MY 2012. These choices reflect both
a more diverse range of technology packages on conventional gasoline and diesel vehicles
as well as an increasing number of electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicle offerings.
There are 20 MY 2017 pickup and minivan/van models for which at least one variant of the
model has a combined city/highway label fuel economy rating of 20 mpg or more, a small
increase over MY 2012. There are more than twice as many SUV models that achieve at
least 25 mpg in MY 2017 than there were in MY 2012. The number of car models, where at
least one variant has a combined city/highway label fuel economy of at least 30 mpg, has
grown from 46 models in MY 2012 to more than 70 models in MY 2017, and the number
of car models with 40 mpg or higher has more than doubled (comprised of hybrid, electric
(EV), plug-in hybrid electric (PHEV), and fuel cell vehicles (FCV)).
Vehicle Models Meeting Fuel Economy Thresholds in MY 2012 and 2017
Includes city/hwy combined
label MPG estimates for
gasoline, diesel and hybrid
vehicles, and MPGe estimates
forEVs, PHEVs, and FCVs
Pickup and SUV >25 MPG Car>30MPG Car >40 MPG
Minivan/Van > 20 MPG
In MY 2017 there were 35 EV and PHEV models available, more than triple the number
available in MY 2012. There are also more fuel cell vehicle models, and the same number
of hybrid models. The number of diesel vehicle models available fell slightly, and no CNG
vehicle models were available in MY 2017.
Advanced Technology and Alternative Fuel Vehicle Models in MY 2012 and 2017
Diesel
PHEV
ES9
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Highlight
About a quarter of MY 2017 vehicles already meet or exceed MY2020
targets, or roughly half of what might be necessary for compliance
EPA evaluated MY 2017 vehicle emissions against future footprint-based C02 regulatory targets to
determine which current vehicles could meet or exceed their future targets. These comparisons assume
future improvements in air conditioner refrigerants and efficiency, since these improvements are
considered to be among the least expensive methods to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The analysis
also assumes that manufacturers will receive, on average, 5 grams/mile of off-cycle credits in all years.
It is important to note that there are no C02 emissions standards for individual vehicles. Overall
manufacturer compliance is determined based on the manufacturer specific production-weighted
average footprint and C02 emissions. It is fully expected that there will be a distribution of how
manufacturers' vehicles compare to their fuel economy targets; some will be above their targets and
some will be below. Manufacturers will likely be able to achieve compliance with roughly 50% of their
vehicles meeting or exceeding the standards.
The figure below shows that 26% of projected MY 2017 vehicle production already meets or exceeds the
MY 2020 C02 emissions targets, with the addition of expected air conditioning improvements and off-
cycle credits. This represents approximately 4.5 million vehicles per year being sold today. The number
of vehicles meeting or exceeding the MY 2020 standards has steadily increased with each model year.
Including air conditioning and off-cycle credits, fewer than 5% of MY 2012 vehicles met or exceeded
the MY 2020 standards, the majority of which were hybrids. By MY 2017, improvements in non-hybrid
gasoline vehicles led to 26% of MY 2017 vehicles meeting or exceeding the MY 2020 standards.
Looking ahead, about 5% of projected MY 2017 production could meet the MY 2025 C02 emissions targets.
Vehicles meeting the MY 2025 C02 targets are comprised solely of hybrids (HEV), plug-in hybrids (PHEV),
electric vehicles (EV) and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCV).
MY 2017 Vehicle Production That Meets or Exceeds Future C02 Emissions Targets
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Fuel
s
FCV
EV
PHEV
HEV
Diesel
Gasoline
2020
ES10
2022
Target Year
2025
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NOTICE: This technical report does not necessarily represent final EPA decisions or positions. It is
intended to present technical analysis of issues using data that are currently available. The purpose
in the release of such reports is to facilitate the exchange of technical information and to inform the
public of technical developments.
ES11
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