EPA/600/A-96/010 AN OVERVIEW OF THE NORTH AMERICAN RESEARCH STRATEGY FOR TROPOSPHERIC OZONE Kenneth L. Schcrc' Atmospheric Sciences Modeling Division Air Resources Laboratory National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Research Triangle Park, NC U.S.A. INTRODUCTION Tropospheric o/.one (O,), and related products i>t photochemical smug, have been the subiect of repealed control attempts lor nearly 30 years in portions of North America. These truce gases art- known to be harmful to humans, animals, vegetation, and materials As growth and industrialization have migrated from urban areas to suburban and rural areas, these pollutants have traveled as well. Previous efforts at smog control often have not met expectations, in part, because of the incomplete scientific understanding of the complex physical, chemical, and biological processes affecting the accumulation of O, Also contributing to the problem was an inadequate monitoring network to verify the effectiveness of past emissions control measures for the precursors of 0„ notably nitrogen oxides (NO,) and volatile organic compounds (VOC). A part of the problem can be attributed to the fact that tropospheric (), research has been sponsored by a variety of government and non-government org an i rations, with their individual efforts largely uncoordinated. In a major review of the state of-science, the U.S. National Academy of Sciences (NAS, 1991) called for a comprehensive program of tropospheric O, research that would be coordinated across organizations from government (federal, state/provincial, and local), industry, academia, and other private-sector interests within North America. Hie NAS cited the stratospheric O, research program as a successful model on which a program of tropospheric research might be patterned. The present effort, described here, is known as the North American Research Strategy for Tropospheric O/.one (NARSTO). Over the next few years after the publication of the NAS report, a series of discussions and workshops took place among the principal sponsors, performers, and customers of North American tropospheric Q, research. Participants came from government organizations, industry and private sector groups, including the electric power, automobile, petroleum, and chemical industries, the university and contractor research communities, as well as non-profit environmental interest groups. A broad consensus toward coordinated collaborative research has emerged from these discussions, illustrated by the publication of the NARSTO Research Strategy and Charter (1994). The principal goals of the 10-year NARSTO program are to: develop and implement, a research strategy reflecting both scientific and policy concerns conduct timely, productive, pohcv-relevant tropospheric O, research with frequent and appropriate reporting of the research results to the scientific, policy, and air quality management communities • develop and deliver timely, useful, and scientifically credible assessment tools and guidance to the policy and air quality management communities provide periodic state-of-science assessments of the North American O, problems and their control, and to revise the NAP.STO research strategy based upon the identified assessment needs and remaining scientific gaps and uncertainties • provide a clearinghouse of current scientific and technical information generated as part of NARSTO (i.e., data, publications, results), ORGANIZATION An organization has been created to work toward the NARSTO research goals. It is designed to provide sustained coordination, collaboration, and leveraging of resources in tropospheric O, research across all participating groups. The organization and management structure aims to facilitate a high level of individual organizational ownership in the NARSTO program, and allows for each organization to maintain its own sovereignty and decision-making within NARSTO. Figure I illustrates the NARSTO structure. The Executive Steering Committee, composed of less than 12 representatives from the Executive 1 On assignment to the National Exposure Research Laboratory. U S Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park. North Carolina ------- executive Maeeeur exECvnvesTHwie cp**7*f mm figure 1. NARSTO organisational structure Assembly (all NARSTO sponsoring oiganizations). is responsible for overall guidance and high-level decision-making within NARSTO. The Stakeholder Council consists of all public and private parties which have interests in the outcomes of NARSTO research. The Science Advisory Council provides independent peer review of NARSTO plans and actions, and consists of a panel of internationally recognized and qualified scientists. The Management Coordinator is responsible for the day- to-day operant is and communications of the NARSTO program. The Science and Resource Planning Group assists the Management Coordinator by defining and coordinating the research needed to address the science and policy concerns, and recommending which sponsoring organizations might take responsibility for funding which activities. At present approximately 70 organizations in North America have signed the NARSTO Charter, indicating a willingness to fully participate in the research program. Table I illustrates a partial list of these organizations. Most of the real work of NARSTO, pursuing scientific research and assessment, occurs within the technical teams. The Analysis and Assessment Team produces periodic state-of-science assessments of fundamental knowledge and applied methods related to tropospheric Oj, coordinates the assessment-related activities of the other technical teams, and provides recommendations for data management, archival, and dissemination. Activities of the Observations Team consist of methods and Table I. Partial List of NARSTO Organizations Government U S Dept. of Commerce (NOAA) U S Environmental Protection Agency U.S. National Science Foundation U.S. Dept. of Energy Environment Canada Instituto Nacional de Ecologia-Mexico California Air Resources Board New York Dept of Envir Conservation Non-government Electric Power Research Institute American Petroleum Institute Coordinating Research Council Instituto Mexicano del Petroleo General Motors Corporation Ford Motor Company E I. DuPont deNemours & Company analysis research applicable for monitoring networks, research-grade intensive measurements and field campaigns, and diagnostic analysis of observations. The Modeling and Chemistry Tenm pursues air quality and meteorological model development, model applications and evaluation research, laboratory and smog chamber studies, and chemical mechanism development. The Emissions Team activities include emissions model development, process and activity analysis, source and ambient emissions field studies, and emissions projection and control technology implications analysis. A Quality Systems Science Center is being designed by »n ad hoc Quality Systems and Data Management Team, to ensure that quality management systems are implemented within NARSTO. The team plans and conducts audits on the critical NARSTO program elements, and coordinates data management, archival, and dissemination. Finally, the Liaison Team maintains communication links with the principal customer communities for NARSTO research, including those of health and ecological effects research, emissions control technology research, and public policy and air quality management. Table 2 lists the current Team Leaders and their affiliations. ------- Table 2. NARSTO Team Leaders Management Coordinator Dr. Jeremy Hales (Envair) Analysis and Assessment Team Dr. George Hidy (Univ. of California-Riv) Mr. Kenneth Schere (U.S. EPA) Observations Team Dr. Fred Fehsenfeld (NOAA) Dr. Phil Galvin (New York State-DEC) Modeling/Chemistry Team Dr. Robin Dennis (U.S. EPA) Dr. S T. Rao (New York State-DEC) Emissions Team Dr. Kenneth Knapp (U.S. EPA) Dr. Doug Lawson (Colorado State Univ.) Quality Systems and Data Management Team Mr. Ronald Patterson (U.S. EPA) Liaison Team Mr. Blaine DeHaven (Pennsylvania-DER) RESEARCH DIRECTIONS NARSTO is committed to research that is relevant to public policy on air quality management. In working with the policy community, the following set of policy concerns/questions have been posed to the NARSTO research community: • For a given area, how do we determine that an O, problem exists, and how do we determine its severity? • What portion of the problem is essentially .rreducible (based on such factors as natural emissions of precursors and stratospheric O, flux) and what portion of the problcn is potentially controllable? • Do we have evidence that existing control measures are having an impact? • What are optimal approaches for reducing current and future high O, concentrations? • What is the magnitude and impact of trans- national-boundary transport of O, and its precursors? • How can the relevant science and scientific uncertainties be meaningfully communicated to the air quality management and policy communities? In response to these policy concerns NARSTO will organize on-goin?, and future research around several major themes. The first theme is determining trends in concentrations of 03 and its precursors (NO,, VOCs, CO) on local and regional scales in North America. Analysis of 0, exposures over time by humans and vegetation requires a sustained effort in urban and rural O, measurements. Large areas of North America, especially in non- urban regions that may be sensitive to O, exposures, do not have adequate monitoring. Sustained measurements of precursors are seen less often. The Photochemical Assessment Monitoring Stations (PAMS) is one such effott in the U.S. PAMS sites began operating in 1994. Building a record of precursor measurements is a necessary step in confirming the accuracy of emissions inventories and evaluating the effectiveness of emissions controls on NO,, VOCs, and CO. Normalizing the trends of these trace gas concentrations for the variability in the meteorological signal is a particular challenge in interpreting trends. A second theme is obtaining a better understanding of the physical, chemical, and meteorological processes responsible for O, accumulation on local and regional scales in North America. Res arch along this theme pursues analysis of data taken during intensive field and laboratory studies focused on particular processes. Some recent examples of such studies include the Southern Oxidants Study (SOS), emphasizing the role of biogenic precursor emissions in oxidant photochemistry in the southern U.S., the NARSTO- NE study, focusing on the inter-urban transport of smog precursors and products in the northeast U.S. and southeast Canada, and the Mexico City Air Qualit; Research Initiative (MARI), studying smog formation processes in a densely populated high- altitude urban area with complex flow regimes. Longer-term research in the fundamental chemistry of oxidant processes is also encompassed by this theme. Laboratory and smog chamber studies are needed to further explore poorly understood chemical pathways, especially for some of the complex reactive organic species. Another important component is methods research leading to improved measurement capabilities for key chemical and meteorological parameters, especially using remote sensing technologies to obtain vertical profiles in the atmosphere. The third theme is incorporau.ig our evolving knowledge of processes into the development, evaluation, and refinement of models that allow us to diagnostically explain the relevant phenomena and to predict future atmospheric states based on perturbations of major forces, such as precursor emissions reductions or increases. These models include both observations based diagnostic models as well as emissions-based chemical-transport models. Such models have evolved in recent years to encompass complete modeling systems, including sophisticated meteorological models with four- dimensional data assimilation, emissions models with increasingly realistic emissions activity patterns and source term magnitudes, and highly-resolved (temporally, spatially, and chemically) chemical- transport models. These models contain a synthesis ------- of our scientific understanding of how the various atmospheric processes work and how they interrelate to produce O, and other smog products. In conjunction with the intensive field data discussed above, NARSTO research will evaluate and improve the evolving class of multi-scale air quality models. Solomon (1995) provides a review of many recent Oj field and modeling studies conducted in North America. A fourth theme integrates information from the earlier themes to evaluate and assess the relative contribution of VOCs and NO,, and their control, to O, accumulation on local and regional scales. The relevant question here is whether oxidant production is limited more by availability of NO. or of VOCs, and whether this limitation changes from day to day for a given area, or from area to area on a gi.en day. A complicating factor in the analysis is the role of transport of O, and precursors between urban areas, and from urban areas to rural areas and vice versa. Recent evidence (NAS, 1991) illustrates that much of eastern North America may be NO,- limited for O, formation, but in and around major urban centers such as Chicago and New York the highest O, concentrations arc limited more by VOCs. It is clear that more data collection and research must yet occur before the best approaches and technologies can be determined for reducing O, concentrations on local and regional bases in North America. NARSTO Assessment While a major thrust of NARSTO is coordinating the research being conducted along the lines of the above major themes, a short-term goal is to produce an updated stale-of-science assessment by 1998. This time period was chosen since it is just in advance of several key analysis and decision points for the policy and air quality management communities in the U S. Timely production of a NARSTO assessment should assist these communities in making decisions for the beginning of the next century that are based on the most current sound science. Key components of the assessment will be: • Review papers on the statj-of-science both at the process level and from an integrated knowledge perspective • New analysis of existing data sets using a common set of diagnostic techniques « Survey papers on methods development, including: comparative assessments of measurement techniques for key species evaluation of diagnostic data analysis techniques (observations-based models) cross-model comparative evaluations model sensitivity analyses with process- level diagnostics evaluation of current emission inventories reconciliation techniques between emissions inventory and ambient data Another objective of the assessment will be to provide recommendations on longer-term research to fill remaining knowledge gaps SUMMARY The NARSTO provides for a 10-year research program in the chemical, physical, and meteorological aspects of tropospheric O, science. The research is Mended to conduct both short-term and long-term studies producing documented results that are relevant to the customer communities, including those of policy, effects, and control technologies Major elements of the program will include state-of-science assessments, coordination of on-going research in North America, and the promotion of new relevant scientific initiatives. NARSTO is being built on an organizational structure that encourages all organizations within North America that sponsor or participate in tropospheric O, research to participate in the program. DISCLAIMER This paper has been reviewed in accordance with the U S. Environmental Protection Agency's peer and administrative review policies and approved for presentation and publication. Ment-on of trade names or commercial products does not constitute endorsement or recommendation for use. REFERENCES NARSTO, 1994. NARSTO Research Strategy and Charter, US Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC, 155 pp. NAS, 1991. Rethinking the Ozone Problem in Urban and Regional Atr Pollution, National Academy Press, Washington, DC, 489 pp. Solomon, P.A., 1995. Regional photochemical measurement and modeling studies: A summary of the Air and Waste Management Association International Specialty Conference. J. Air A Waste Manage. Assoc. 45:253-286. ------- TECHNICAL REPORT DATA — 1. REPORT NO. EPA/600/A-96/010 2 . 3 . RE( 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE An Overview of the North American Research Strategy for Tropospheric Ozone 5.REPORT DATE 6.PERFORMING ORGANIZATION CODE 7. AUTHOR (S) Kenneth L. Scherc B.PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO. 9 PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS Same as Block 12. 10.PROGRAM ELEMENT NO. 11. CONTRACT/GRANT NO. 12. SPONSORING AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS National Exposure Research Laboratory Office of Research and Development U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Research Triangle Park, NC 27711 13.TYPE OF REPORT AND PERIOD COVERED Proceedings, FY-96 14 SPONSORING AGENCY CODE EPA/600/9 15. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 16. ABSTRACT Tropospheric ozone (0,), and related products of photochemical smog, have been the subject of repeated control attempts for nearly 30 years in portions of North America. These trace gases are known to be harmful to humans, animals, vegetation, and materials. As growth and industrialization have migrated from urban areas to suburban and rural areas, these pollutants have traveled as well. Previous efforts at smog control often have r.ot met expectations, in part, because of the incomplete scientific understanding of the complex physical, chemical, and biological processes affecting the accumulation of 0). Also contributing to the problem was an inadequate monitoring network to verify the effectiveness of past emissions control measures for the precursors of 0,, notably nitrogen oxides (NO,) and volatile organic compounds (VOC). A part of the problem can be attributed to the fact that tropospheric Oj research has been sponsored by a variety of government and non-government organizations, with their individual efforts largely uncoordinated. 17. KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS a. DESCRIPTORS b.IDENTIFIERS/ OPEN ENDED TERMS c.COSATI 19. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT RELEASE T9 PVBLI? 19. SECURITY CLASS (This Report) UNCLASSIFIED 21.NO. OF PAGES P°j«JECU?ITY CLASS UNCLASSIFIED ------- |