The
EPA Automotive
Trends Report:
Greenhouse Gas Emissions,
Fuel Economy, and
Technology since 1975
Executive Summary
United States
Environmental Protection
^*^1 Agency
EPA-420-S-19-001 March 2019
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Executive Summary
This new annual report is part of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA)
commitment to provide the public with information about new light-duty vehicle green-
house gas (GHG) emissions, fuel economy, technology data, and auto manufacturers'
performance in meeting the agency's GHG emissions standards. This report includes
content previously published in two separate reports, the Light-Duty Automotive Technology,
Carbon Dioxide Emissions, and Fuel Economy Trends Report, and the GHG Manufacturer
Performance Report. These reports have now been combined to provide a more
comprehensive analysis.
EPA has collected data on every new
light-duty vehicle model sold in the
United States since 1975, either from
testing performed by EPA at the
National Vehicle and Fuel Emissions
Laboratory in Ann Arbor, Michigan,
or directly from manufacturers using
official EPA test procedures. These
data are collected to support several
important national programs, includ-
ing EPA criteria pollutant and GHG
standards, the U.S. Department of Transportation's National Highway Traffic Safety
Administration (NHTSA) Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards, and vehicle
Fuel Economy and Environment labels.
This report presents current and historic data that provide a comprehensive overview of
the automotive industry. The report does not examine future model years, and past per-
formance does not necessarily predict future industry trends. All data for model years 1975
through 2017 are final and based on official data submitted to EPA and NHTSA as part of
the regulatory process. In some cases (not for manufacturer compliance), this report will
show data for model year 2018, which are preliminary and based on data provided to EPA
by automakers prior to the model year.
The carbon dioxide (C02) emissions and fuel economy data in this report fall into one of
two categories. The first is compliance data, which is measured using laboratory tests
required by law for CAFE and adopted by EPA for GHG compliance. The second is estimated
real-world data, which is measured using additional laboratory tests to capture a wider
range of operating conditions (including hot/cold weather and higher acceleration) that an
average driver will encounter. This report will show estimated real-world data except for the
discussion specific to the GHG regulations around Figures ES-6 through ES-8 and in Section 5.
Tedb&oW
%
EPA Automotive
Trends Report:
Greenhouse Gas Emissions,
Fuel Economy, and
Technology since 1975
ES2
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New vehicle estimated real-world CO2 emissions are
at a record low and fuel economy is at a record high
In model year 2017, the average estimated
real-world C02 emission rate for all new
vehicles fell by 3 grams per mile (g/mi) to
357 g/mi, the lowest level ever measured.
Fuel economy increased by 0.2 miles per
gallon to 24.9 mpg, achieving a record high.
Since 2004, C02 emissions have decreased
23%, or 104 g/mi, and fuel economy has
increased 29%, or 5.6 mpg. Over that time,
C02 emissions and fuel economy have im-
proved in eleven out of thirteen years and
have repeatedly achieved new records. The
trends in C02 emissions and fuel economy
since 1975 are shown in Figure ES-1.
Preliminary data suggest further improve-
ments in model year 2018. Average
estimated real-world C02 emissions are
projected to fall 8 g/mi to 348 g/mi and fuel
economy is projected to increase 0.5 mpg
to 25.4 mpg. Projected data are shown in
Figure ES-1 as a red dot because the values
are based on manufacturer projections
rather than final data.
Figure ES-1. Estimated Real-World C02
and Fuel Economy
CD
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03
CD
q:
CO
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LU
CM
o
o
25.0
22.5
20.0
17.5
15.0
12.5
700
600
500
400
—i 1 1 1 1—
1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Model Year
Manufacturers have made significant improvements in
fuel economy and CO2 emissions over the last 5 years
Twelve of the thirteen largest manufacturers selling vehicles in the U.S. market improved
estimated real-world C02 emissions and fuel economy between model year 2012 and 2017.
This five-year span, shown in Figure ES-2, covers the model years for which the coordinated
EPA GHG and NHTSA CAFE programs have been in place. Five years also represents the
average length of a vehicle redesign cycle, so it is likely that most vehicles have undergone
design changes in this period.
$1 ES3_
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Figure ES-2. Changes in Estimated Real-World Fuel Economy and C02for Large Manufacturers
Honda -
Mazda -
Hyundai -
Subaru -
Kia-
Nissan-
Mitsubishi"
VW-
BMW-
Toyota-
Mercedes-
Ford-
GM-
FCA-
All Manufacturers-
20 24 28 32 300 350 400 450
Fuel Economy (MPG), 2012 - 2017
CO Emissions (g/mi), 2012 - 2017
28.0
->28.6
25.0
26.2->27
.2
.1
24
r
21
.8 ->26.5
ZO. J
25.3
-<25.5
oh r\ ^ n
22.7->2
21.7—>>2;
—>•21.2
2
9
9
20.1
.
23.6
24.9
302
30
¦J JJ I
11 <<317
355
327<— 335
7
335 <—
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oo
349->3
51
38
3
3
>1 07
38 <392
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357
377
ES4
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Overall, the industry improved C02 emissions by 21 g/mi and fuel economy by 1.3 mpg
between model year 2012 and 2017 (the apparent discrepancy with figure ES-2 is due to
rounding). Subaru had the largest decrease in C02 emissions during this period, reduc-
ing emissions by 43 g/mi. Mercedes had the next largest reduction at 42 g/mi, followed by
Nissan-Mitsubishi at 40 g/mi. Subaru also had the largest improvement in fuel economy at
3.5 mpg, followed by Honda at 3.1 mpg and Nissan-Mitsubishi at 2.9 mpg.
In model year 2017, Honda led the industry with the lowest C02 emissions and highest fuel
economy. Mazda and Hyundai had the second and third lowest C02 emissions, respective-
ly. FCA had the highest new vehicle average C02 emissions and lowest fuel economy of the
large manufacturers, followed by GM and Ford.
Sport utility vehicles continue to gain market share,
with truck SUVs achieving record low CO2 emissions
and record high fuel economy
In this report, vehicles are disaggregated into five vehicle types: sedan/wagon, car SUV,
truck SUV, pickup truck, and minivan/van. Car SUVs are generally smaller 2WD SUVs while
truck SUVs are larger or 4WD vehicles. The distinction between car and truck SUVs is based
on regulatory definitions and is important because cars and trucks are subject to differ-
ent GHG and fuel economy standards. Sedan/wagons and car SUVs are subject to the car
regulatory standards while truck SUVs, pickups, and minivans/vans are subject to the truck
standards. Note that media reports generally consider all SUVs as trucks, which is different
from the regulatory distinctions used in this report.
The overall market continues to move towards both car SUVs and truck SUVs. Combined,
car and truck SUVs captured a record high 43% market share in model year 2017. Truck
SUVs improved fuel economy by 0.1 mpg and C02 emissions by 3 g/mile in model year
2017, while car SUVs essentially remained flat with no change in fuel economy and a slight
increase in C02 emissions of less than 1 g/mi. Sedan/wagons fell to 41 % of the market, or
almost half of the market share they held in model year 1975, even as their fuel economy
increased by 1 mpg.
All five vehicle types are at or near record low C02 emissions and record high fuel economy
and have steadily improved in recent years. However, the market shift towards SUVs and
away from sedan/wagons has offset some of the fleetwide benefits that otherwise would
have been achieved from the increased fuel economy within each vehicle type.
ES5
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Figure ES-3. Production Share and Fuel Economy by Vehicle Type
Sedan/Wagon
Car SUV
Truck SUV
Minivan/Van
Pickup
o
Q-
33
o
30
20
10
30
20
10
30
20
1 10
ro
2 30
20
10
30
20
10
1975
1985
1995
2005
2015
1
1975
1985
—i
1995
2005
2015
Model Year
Model Year
Average new vehicle fuel economy and horsepower
continue to increase, while weight remains constant
Vehicle weight and horsepower are two fundamental vehicle attributes that influence a
vehicle's C02 emissions and fuel economy. Vehicles with higher weight, or more power,
will generally have higher C02 emissions and lower fuel economy. Over time, automotive
technology innovation has been applied to vehicle design with differing emphasis between
vehicle weight, power, C02 emissions and fuel economy (Figure ES-4).
in the two decades before model year 2004, technology innovation was generally used to
increase vehicle power, and weight increased due to changing vehicle design, increased
vehicle size, and increased content. During this period, average new vehicle fuel economy
steadily decreased and C02 emissions correspondingly increased. However, since model
year 2004 technology has been used to increase fuel economy (up 29%) and power (up
11 %), while maintaining vehicle weight and reducing C02 emissions (down 23%). The
improvement in C02 emissions and fuel economy since 2004 is due to many factors,
including gasoline prices, consumer preference, and increasing stringency of NHTSA
light-duty car and truck CAFE standards.
ES6
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One additional vehicle metric not shown in Figure ES-4 is vehicle footprint, or the area
enclosed by the four tires. Footprint is important because it is the basis for determining
regulatory standards under the GHG and CAFE regulations. Since EPA began tracking foot-
print in model year 2008, average footprint has increased slightly, up about 2%.
Figure ES-4. Estimated Real-World Fuel Economy, Horsepower, and Weight
Since Model Year 1975
100%-
80%-
60%-
CD
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c
W
g, 20%-
C
05
.£=
o 0%-
-20%-
-40%-
Manufacturers continue to adopt a wide array of
advanced technologies
Technological innovation in the automobile industry has led to a wide array of technology
available to manufacturers to achieve C02 emissions, fuel economy, and performance
goals. Figure ES-5 illustrates projected manufacturer-specific technology adoption, with
larger circles representing higher adoption rates, for model year 2018. The figure
shows preliminary model year 2018 technology projections to provide insight on a quickly
changing industry, even though there is some uncertainty in the preliminary data.
Engine technologies such as turbocharged engines (Turbo) and gasoline direct injection
(GDI) allow for more efficient engine design and operation. Cylinder deactivation (CD)
Real-Warld Fuel
Economy
/
r
Horse Dower
VNfeight
—i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1—
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Model Year
ES7
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allows for use of only a portion of the engine when less power is needed and stop/start
systems can turn off the engine entirely at idle to save fuel. Hybrid vehicles use a larger
battery to recapture braking energy and provide power when necessary, allowing for a
smaller, more efficiently-operated engine. Transmissions that have seven or more gears, or
continuously variable transmissions (CVTs), transfer power to the wheels more efficiently
and allow for more efficient engine operation.
The technologies in Figure ES-5 are all being adopted by manufacturers to reduce C02
emissions and increase fuel economy, in some cases quite rapidly. For example, GDI was
used in fewer than 3% of vehicles as recently as model year 2008 but is projected to be in
about 50% of vehicles in model year 2018. Electric vehicles (EVs), plug-in hybrid vehicles
(PHEVs), and fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) are a small but growing percentage of new vehicles.
Figure ES-5. Technology Share for Large Manufacturers, Model Year 2018
Honda -
Mazda -
Hyundai -
Subaru -
Kia -
Nissan- _
Mitsubishi "
VW -
BMW -
Toyota -
Mercedes -
Ford -
GM -
FCA -
All Manufacturers -
44%
76%
63%
24%
25%
5%
3%
2%
20%
96%
38%
13%
77%
10%
4%
1%
5%
31%
92%
10%
86%
10%
5%
8%
2%
7%
21%
76%
12%
2%
1%
2%
83%
99%
63%
1%
59%
1%
97%
94%
88%
84%
7%
3%
2%
27%
30%
6%
11%
1%
86%
100%
100%
2%
79%
2%
56%
42%
4%
35%
59%
3%
0%
40%
89%
2%
40%
43%
44%
1%
2%
10%
7%
1%
78%
12%
41%
4%
1%
31%
51%
22%
36%
12%
28%
4%
3%
Turbo GDI CVT 7+Gears CD StopStart Hybrid PHEV/
EV/FCV
ES8
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All large manufacturers are in compliance with the
GHG standards through the 2017 model year
EPA's GHG program is an averaging, banking, and trading (ABT) program. An ABT program
means that the standards may be met on a fleet average basis, manufacturers may earn and
bank credits to use later, and manufacturers may trade credits with other manufacturers.
This provides manufacturers flexibility in meeting the standards while accounting for
vehicle design cycles, introduction
rates of new technologies
and emission improvements, and
fluctuating consumer
preferences.
Manufacturers with average
fleet emissions lower than the
emissions standard generate
credits by over complying with
the standards. Because credits
may not be carried forward
unless deficits from all prior
model years have been resolved,
a positive credit balance means
compliance with the current and
all previous model years of the
program. Any manufacturer with
a deficit at the end of the model
year has up to three years to off-
set the deficit with credits
generated by future improve-
ments beyond the standards or
credits purchased from another
manufacturer.
Figure ES-6. GHG Credit Balance for Large
Manufacturers, After 2017 Model Year
Toyota -
Honda
Nissan-
Mitsubishi
FCA -
Hyundai
Subaru
Ford-
GM -
Mazda
BMW -
Kia -
VW-
Mercedes
Manufacturers with a positive
credit balance have complied
through model year 2017
I
~20 40 60~
GHG Credits (Tg of C02)
All large manufacturers (with production of more than 150,000 in model year 2017) ended
the 2017 model year with a positive credit balance and are thus in compliance with model
year 2017 and all previous years of the GHG program. The total credits accumulated, as
shown in Figure ES-6, will be carried forward for use in future model years. Total credits are
shown in teragrams (one billion kilograms), which accounts for manufacturer performance
compared to their standards, expected vehicle lifetime miles driven, and the number of
vehicles produced by each manufacturer, for all years of the GHG program.
ES9
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The industry used a combination of technology and
credits to achieve compliance in 2017
Most large manufacturers used banked credits, along with technology improvements, to
maintain compliance in model year 2017. Three large manufacturers achieved compliance
based on the emission performance of their vehicles, without utilizing additional banked
credits. Figure ES-7 illustrates the performance of individual large manufacturers in model
year 2017 compared to their overall standard, in terms of an average vehicle grams per
mile emission rate. This "snapshot" provides insight into how the large manufacturers
performed against the standards in model year 2017, but it does not account for banked
credits or credit transactions between companies. Figure ES-7 also does not portray whether
these manufacturers ultimately complied with the model year 2017 standards (they did).
The manufacturers with emissions above their standards used banked or purchased credits
in model year 2017. All of these manufacturers had credits available from previous years,
and/or they were able to purchase credits to ensure their credit balance remained positive
after model year 2017.
Figure ES-7. Performance and Standards by Manufacturer, 2017 Model Year
E
3
CD
X
CD
0
o
c
03
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350
300
250-
200
150
307
285 286
258 ¦ 257 I ?55
244
246
252
I243l 240 |9,7F^ ¦
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I Standard
I Performance
4°
ES10
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A large bank of credits remains for the industry to
use in future model years
The industry emerges from model year 2017 with a bank of almost 250 teragrams (Tg) of
GHG credits, as seen in Figure ES-8. Based on their compliance strategy, many manufacturers
used credits in model year 2017. As a result, the industry depleted their collective credit
bank by about 18 Tg, or about 7% of the total credit balance, to maintain compliance. In
addition to the balance of the industry-wide bank, the expiration date and distribution of
credits are also important factors. Credits earned in model year 2017 or beyond have a
five-year life, while all prior credits (92% of the current bank) will expire at the end of
model year 2021. Additionally, more than half of the current balance is held by three
manufacturers, and the availability of these or future credits is inherently uncertain.
Figure ES-8. Industry Performance and Standards, Credit Generation and Use
E
3
O
x
o
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The industry was able to accrue credits before the standards took effect in model year
2012 for early deployment of efficient vehicles and technology (the "early credit" program).
The industry generated additional credits the first four years of the program, as the industry
GHG performance was below the standards. In the last two years, the industry GHG perfor-
mance has been above the standards, resulting in withdrawals from the bank of credits to
maintain compliance.
In model year 2017, the industry improved overall compliance GHG performance by 8 g/mi.
While this was not enough to meet the standard, the gap between the standard and GHG
performance narrowed to 5 g/mi from 9 g/mi. One factor that contributed meaningfully to
this improvement was that production multipliers (e.g. one electric vehicle may be counted
as two for compliance) took effect in model year 2017. These incentives are in place
through model year 2019 before phasing out in 2021.
The automobile industry continues to innovate,
improve, and meet the GHG standards
The analysis here is a snapshot of the data collected by EPA in support of several important
regulatory programs and is presented with the intent of providing as much transparency
to the public as possible. The data show the change and innovation in the industry since
model year 1975, and the manufacturers' performance under EPA's GHG standards.
To download the full report, or to explore the data using EPA's new interactive data tools,
visit the report webpage at www.epa.gov/automotive-trends.
NOTICE: This technical report does not necessarily represent final EPA decisions, positions, or approval
or validation of compliance data reported to EPA by manufacturers. It is intended to present technical
analysis of issues using data that are currently available and that may be subject to change. The purpose
of the release of such reports is to facilitate the exchange of technical information and to inform the public
of technical developments.
The Department of Justice and EPA have reached settlements with Volkswagen and Fiat Chrysler Automo-
biles based on the sale of certain diesel vehicles equipped with devices to defeat the vehicles' emission con-
trol systems. This report includes the original fuel economy and GHG certification values of these vehicles,
as EPA believes this is a reasonable representation of how these vehicles were expected to perform. The
affected vehicles are certain model year 2009 to 2016 diesel vehicles from Volkswagen and 2014 to 2016
diesel vehicles from Fiat Chrysler Automobiles, and account for less than 1% of production in all affected
years. For more information about these investigations, please see www.epa.gov/vw or www.epa.gov/fca.
ES12
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