FACT SHEET Proposed ACE Rule - CO2 Emissions Trends On August 21, 2018, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) proposed the Affordable Clean Energy (ACE) rule which would establish emission guidelines for states to develop plans to address greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from existing coal-fired power plants. The ACE rule would replace the 2015 Clean Power Plan (CPP), which EPA has proposed to repeal because it exceeded EPA's authority. The CPP was stayed by the U.S. Supreme Court and has never gone into effect. The proposed ACE rule is informed by the more than 270,000 public comments that EPA received on its December 2017 Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking. The ACE rule has several components: a determination of the best system of emission reduction (BSER) for GHG emissions from coal-fired power plants, a list of "candidate technologies" states can use when developing their plans, a new preliminary applicability test for determining whether a physical or operational change made to a power plant may be a "major modification" triggering New Source Review, and new implementation regulations for emission guidelines under Clean Air Act section 111(d). CO2 EMISSIONS STEADILY DECLINING EPA projects that, compared to a no CPP scenario, the ACE rule will reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in 2025 by between 13 and 30 million short tons, resulting in $1.6 billion in monetized domestic climate benefits. EPA evaluated three illustrative implementation scenarios. EPA estimates that the ACE rule could reduce 2030 CO2 emissions by an amount equivalent to the annual emissions of up to 5 million cars. The rule could also reduce co-pollutant emissions by up to 2%. These illustrative scenarios suggest that when states have fully implemented the ACE rule, U.S. power sector CO2 emissions could be around 34% below 2005 levels. CO2 emissions in the power sector have steadily declined in recent years due to a range of factors including: market forces, technology improvements, regulatory and policy changes. As a result, the industry has increased the use of natural gas and renewable energy sources. These trends have resulted in CO2 emission reductions even as the U.S. has sustained economic growth and job gains across the economyand this has all happened without the CPP ever going into effect. The ACE rule will continue this trend. 1 ------- 40% GDP Population Electricity Generation Electricity C02 Emissions Electricity S02 + NOx -100% L/llDI^00CT>O*H(Ncr)^-L/llDI^ o O O O O H ^l ^l ^l ^l ^l ^l ^l ooooooooooooo fMfMfMfMfMfMMfMfMfNlfMfNlfM **** The power sector emitted roughly 1.9 billion tons of CO2 in 2017, compared to 2.7 billion tons in 2005a 28% decrease.1 o Table 1 in the appendix to this fact sheet provides state-level CO2 emissions data for 2005 and 2016 as well as the state-level percentage of generation by fuel-type for 2016.2 Approximately 600 coal-fired electric generating units at 300 facilities could be covered by this rule. The U.S. leads the world in reducing CO2 emissions. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) found that U.S. energy-related CO2 emissions fell by 14 percent between 2005 to 2017, with coal-related CO2 emissions down 39 percent over that period. During that time, global energy-related CO2 emissions rose by 21 percent. FOR MORE INFORMATION Additional fact sheets along with copies of the proposed rule and accompanying Regulatory Impact Analysis are available on EPA's website at https://www.epa.gov/stationarv-sources-air- pollution/proposal-affordable-clean-energy-ace-rule 1 ElATable 12.6, available at https://www.eia. gov/totalenergv/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T12.06#/?f=A&start=2005&end=2017&charted=0- 1-6-9. 2 2017 state-level data is not yet available from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). 2 ------- APPENDIX Table 1: CO2 Emissions and Generation Mix by State3 CO2 Emissions (million short tons) 2006 2016 2016 Generation Mix (percent of total generation by fuel-type)4 Coal Natural Nuclear Renewable5 Other6 Gas Alaska 3.9 3.4 8% 50% 0% 28% 13% Alabama 92.1 61.2 25% 41% 29% 5% 0% Arkansas 31.0 34.1 40% 30% 23% 6% 0% Arizona 58.6 49.0 28% 31% 30% 11% 0% California 52.0 41.0 0% 47% 10% 43% 0% Colorado 46.4 39.6 55% 23% 0% 22% 0% Connecticut 11.9 8.7 0% 48% 47% 3% 2% District of 0.1 0.0 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% Columbia Delaware 6.2 4.0 6% 91% 0% 1% 1% Florida 138.0 119.0 17% 67% 13% 1% 2% Georgia 94.5 63.6 29% 41% 27% 3% 0% Hawaii 9.6 7.4 16% 0% 0% 12% 71% Iowa 40.7 27.4 45% 5% 9% 40% 0% Idaho 0.6 1.4 0% 21% 0% 79% 0% Illinois 103.7 73.3 31% 9% 54% 6% 0% Indiana 134.5 91.9 74% 20% 0% 6% 1% Kansas 39.8 28.1 49% 4% 17% 30% 0% Kentucky 103.7 79.5 84% 10% 0% 5% 2% Louisiana 42.5 40.2 16% 53% 23% 2% 6% Massachusetts 25.1 13.2 6% 66% 17% 7% 4% Maryland 32.6 19.3 38% 13% 40% 7% 1% Maine 3.4 2.1 1% 33% 0% 63% 3% Michigan 80.5 60.8 37% 26% 29% 6% 2% Minnesota 39.5 30.4 39% 15% 24% 21% 1% Missouri 87.6 68.8 77% 8% 12% 3% 0% Mississippi 28.2 28.5 9% 82% 10% 0% 0% Montana 21.3 18.1 51% 2% 0% 44% 3% North Carolina 78.4 56.1 29% 30% 33% 7% 0% North Dakota 34.2 32.5 70% 3% 0% 27% 0% 3 ElA's Detailed State Data, available at https://www.eia.gov/electricitv/data/state/. 4 These data exclude industrial and commercial sources. 5 Includes geothermal, hydroelectric (conventional and pumped storage), biomass (including wood and wood derived fuels), solar (thermal and photovoltaic), and wind. 6 Includes petroleum and other gases. 3 ------- Nebraska 24.0 23.9 60% 1% 26% 13% 0% New Hampshire 7.6 2.7 2% 24% 56% 17% 0% New Jersey 20.9 22.5 2% 57% 39% 2% 1% New Mexico 37.0 25.5 56% 30% 0% 14% 0% Nevada 18.3 15.4 6% 73% 0% 22% 0% New York 53.6 32.1 1% 42% 31% 24% 1% Ohio 141.0 87.9 58% 24% 14% 2% 1% Oklahoma 56.3 39.4 24% 47% 0% 29% 0% Oregon 7.2 8.7 3% 26% 0% 71% 0% Pennsylvania 136.0 91.1 26% 31% 39% 3% 0% Rhode Island 2.6 2.8 0% 96% 0% 4% 0% South Carolina 43.6 30.1 22% 17% 59% 2% 0% South Dakota 4.0 2.9 18% 8% 0% 74% 0% Tennessee 62.5 39.7 39% 14% 38% 8% 0% Texas 255.0 233.1 30% 45% 10% 15% 0% Utah 39.6 30.1 69% 22% 0% 9% 0% Virginia 41.1 37.3 18% 45% 33% 3% 1% Vermont 0.0 0.0 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% Washington 10.9 10.6 4% 10% 9% 77% 0% Wisconsin 48.6 42.7 52% 24% 16% 8% 0% West Virginia 93.2 74.9 95% 1% 0% 3% 0% Wyoming 48.8 45.7 88% 0% 0% 12% 0% ------- |