A J\ United States Environmental Protection ^1 M m Agency EPA 600/F-16/179 | July 2016 Innovative Research for a Sustainable Future Research Summary Water Energy Nexus 1.0 Introduction In the water-energy nexus the electric power sector stands out as a crucial link between water and energy systems. The U.S. energy system is comprised of primary energy resources such as coal, natural gas, petroleum, uranium and renewables like wind, solar, hydropower, geothermal and biomass. Refineries and electric power facilities convert these primary resources to useable forms of energy such as electricity, gasoline, diesel and other products. The end-use sectors include residential, commercial, industrial and light and heavy duty transportation. According to the Energy Information Administration more than 90% of the U.S. electricity supply is generated by thermoelectric power plants that require an abundant supply of water from nearby water bodies such as rivers and lakes for cooling. The U.S. Geologic Survey has shown the electric sector withdraws more water than any other sector in the U.S., accounting for 45% of all total water withdrawals and 38% of total freshwater withdrawals for all The Water-Energy Nexus i ------- For water consumption there is less recent data, but the electric sector has been estimated to account for between 3% and 6% of total water consumption in the U.S. This is expected to grow to 9% by 2030 however, making the electric sector the fastest growing water consumer. A heavy dependence on reliable water supply means that the U.S. electric sector is highly vulnerable to changes in water resource availability. The electric sector will be negatively impacted when the water supply is compromised, affecting the ability to produce adequate cooling causing reduced electricity generation or total shut down of a facility. Thermoelectric cooling can be compromised in three ways. First, the water level of rivers and other cooling water sources can fall below the cooling water intakes of nearby power plants. Second, high source water temperatures can reduce the efficiency of power plant cooling systems and consequently limit plant generating capacity. Lastly, state regulations may limit power plants from discharging heated cooling water into water bodies that already exceed temperature thresholds designed to protect water quality and ecosystems. NRMRL's research assessing the water demand of the energy system focuses primarily on changes in water withdrawals and consumption. Withdrawals represent the amount of water diverted from a water body such as a freshwater river, lake, reservoior, or saline or brackish water sources. Consumption represents the portion of water lost to evaporation (e.g., steam from a cooling tower) or other losses that may occur where the water does not return to the original water body. Our research has examined both the water consumption and withdrawal for a range of scenarios generated by the MARKAL (MARKet ALIocation) energy system model using the EPA's U.S. nine- region (EPAUS9r) database. A 2014 study, performed in collaboration with researchers from UNC Chapel Hill, assessed the water demands for scenarios of system-wide C02 mitigation for the electric sector, looking only at electric sector water use (Cameron et al. 2014). A more recent study, currently in journal review (Dodder et al. 2016), expanded the system boundares to asssess water use under a range of both C02 and water constrained scenarios, estimating not only the water use by electric power generation facilities, but the life cycle water use for the fuels they consumed (coal, natural gas, biomass, etc.) and in their construction. Finally, in 2014 NRMRL produced a critical review of the literature examining a range of modeling tools and approaches used to assess the future water demands of the energy system (Dodder, 2014). 2.0 The water demands of energy w Our research conducted at the National Risk Management Research Lab (NRMRL) Air Pollution Prevention and Control Division (APPCD) addresses the interaction between the energy and water sectors, by modeling the water demands from the full energy system. This includes not only the water demands for thermoelectric cooling and other electric power operational water needs, but also water use for the full energy system. This means also taking a full life-cycle perspective, including the water use for the primary resource supplies as well as the water use in the manufacturing, construction and decommissioning of power plants and other energy-production facilities. 2 ------- Electric sector water use under carbon constrained scenarios Cameron et al. (2014) assessed the impact of long-range (2055) energy sytem scenarios on electric sector water withdrawal and consumption to 2055. The EPAUS9r MARKAL model was used to estimate changes in U.S. electric sector water withdrawal and consumption through 2055 resulting from energy system-wide C02 emissions reduction targets of 10%, 25%, and 50%, as well as nine sensitivity analysis scenarios. C02 reduction strategies accelerated the deployment of more water-efficient thermoelectric generation technologies and increased the use of renewables, nuclear, and carbon capture. The 50% C02 reduction scenario also prompted electrification in end-use demand sectors, most notably transportation, increasing electricity demand 36% by 2055. In aggregate, C02 reduction strategies decrease national electric sector water withdrawal in all scenarios (-31% to -46% by 2055), but have a varied impact on water consumption (-4% to +42% by 2055). These changes in electricity generation technology and the resulting change in water use would likely reduce broad electric sector vulnerability to droughts and heat waves, however the potential for more localized vulnerabilies exists. In comparison with previous work on this topic, this study addressed a wider range of scenarios than was previously modeled and captured interactions between multiple sectors (e.g., between electric power and transportation or other end-use demands) not previously explored in the context of U.S. electric sector water use. Broader energy system water use under carbon and water constrained scenarios Currently, the operational (e.g., cooling systems) water use for thermoelectric generation dominates life cycle water withdrawal and consumption for the electric sector. Water use for the associated fuel cycle (e.g. natural gas, coal) and power plant manufacturing is substantially lower on a life-cycle basis. However, a remaining question is whether shifting the full electricity mix toward low carbon and low water operations can lead to trade-offs across the life cycle. Dodder et al. (2016) compared business-as-usual with scenarios of carbon reductions and water use constraints using the MARKet ALIocation (MARKAL) energy system model. Our results showed that for water withdrawals, the trade-offs appeared to be minimal - operational water accounts for over 95% of life cycle withdrawals across all scenarios. For water consumption, however, this analysis identified some potential trade- offs. Some scenarios showed significant increases in the water consumption in the upstream stages of the life cycle. Nationally, water use for the fuel cycle and power plant manufacturing could reach up to 26% of the total life cycle consumption. In the western and midwestern regions, non-operational water consumption in 2050 could even exceed operational water use. In particular, water use for biomass feedstock irrigation and for the manufacturing/construction of concentrating solar power facilities could increase with high deployment of these low carbon options. As the U.S. moves toward lower carbon and lower water electric power operations, decision makers may consider looking at shifting water demands in order to avoid unintended consequences. 3.0 Expected Outcomes I Results The U.S. electric sector's reliance on water makes it vulnerable to climate variability and change. This research informs the water use implications of approaches to decarbonization of the energy system, by exploring a range of pathways and their changing water demands. The modeling also examines regional differences in the energy mixes and associated water use. Using these studies, APPCD evaluates various carbon mitigation policies and how they would improve or exacerbate electric sector water reliance. While these studies inform carbon and water trade-offs, they do not address facility level water withdrawal with sufficient spatial and temporal detail to consider impacts on 3 ------- electric sector vulnerability to changes in water availability during periods of drought, for example. Future efforts will aim to extend this work by linking the water demands with estimates of changes in water resources. In addition, while there is a robust body of literature assessing the water demands of long range electricity and energy system scenarios from a water quantity standpoint, there are limited studies that assess water quality implications of broader energy systems scenarios, that capture the full life cycle of water use. The expected outcome is a broader understanding of the potential water-related co-benefits or tradeoffs between climate migitation strategies (carbon reductions) and climate adaptation and resiliency strategies (water use reductions). Keywords Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), APPCD, climate mitigation, energy system modeling, MARKAL, carbon dioxide (C02), water quantity, consumption, water-energy nexus, electric power, renewables Contact Rebecca Dodder dodder. rebecca(a)epa.gov 919.541.5376 Lead 4 ------- |