Benefits of Addressing HFCs under
the Montreal Protocol
June 2013
Stratospheric Protection Division
Office of Atmospheric Programs
Office of Air and Radiation
United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
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U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
June 2013
Benefits of Addressing HFCs under the Montreal Protocol
June 2013
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The United States, Canada, and Mexico have proposed an amendment to the Montreal Protocol
to phase down production and consumption of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and control
byproduct emissions. The proposal includes binding reduction targets for all countries, and
provides access to financial support and extended phasedown time to developing countries.
HFC use and emissions are rapidly increasing as a result of the phaseout of ozone-depleting
substances (ODS) and growing global demand for air conditioning. Although safe for the ozone
layer, the continued emissions of HFCs - primarily as alternatives to ODS and also from the
continued production of HCFC-22 - will have an immediate and significant effect on the Earth's
climate system. Without further controls, it is predicted that HFC emissions could negate the
entire climate benefits achieved under the Montreal Protocol. The proposal calls for a gradual
phasedown of HFCs to allow for early transition in sectors where we have alternatives, and gives
more time and incentive for innovation to deploy alternatives in other areas. Some niche areas
may never transition, which is why the phasedown ends at 15% of allowable use of HFCs
relative to an established baseline.
Adoption of the HFC amendment would produce environmental benefits of more than 90
gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent (CC^eq) by 2050. To provide some context, current global
climate emissions from all sources are about 45 gigatons C02eq annually.
The proposed Amendment builds on the success of the Montreal Protocol, relies on the strength
of its institutions, and realizes climate benefits in both the near and long-term. Table ES-1
displays the projected benefits from the Amendment.
Table ES-1: Estimated Benefits of the Amendment Proposal, at Various Intervals
Cumulative HFC Reductions (MMTCQ2eq)
Party
2016 to 2020
2016 to 2030
2016 to 2040
2016 to 2050
HFC Phasedown - Consumption Reductions
Non-Article 5 Parties
1,600
9,900
24,100
40,200
Article 5 Parties
-
4,900
19,400
43,200
World
1,600
14,800
43,500
83,400
Byproduct Controls - Emissions Reductions
Non-Article 5 Parties
300
900
2,000
3,800
Article 5 Parties
700
2,100
4,200
7,500
World
1,000
3,000
6,200
11,300
World Total
2,600
17,800
49,700
94,700
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U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
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1. Introduction
This paper presents analysis of potential benefits from globally reducing consumption of
hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and reducing byproduct emissions of HFC-23. HFCs are a subset of
fluorinated greenhouse gases that are intentionally-made and used in various applications. HFCs
are predominantly alternatives to ozone-depleting substances (ODS) being phased out under the
Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (Montreal Protocol). Recent
1 2
scientific papers, including a 2009 paper by Velders et al., a 2011 paper by Gschrey et al., and
a 2011 report from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP),3 suggest that HFC use
will grow substantially over the next several decades, driven both by increased demand for
refrigeration and air-conditioning (in particular but not exclusively in developing countries,
hereinafter referred to as Article 5 or A5 countries), and because these substances were
developed and are being used as alternatives to ODS.
HFCs are a small part of the problem today. However, HFC emissions are increasing rapidly.
Left unabated, HFC emissions could rise to nearly 20% of carbon dioxide emissions by 2050. By
acting now, we could stem the growth of HFC use and avoid an increase that in three decades
could eclipse other climate protection efforts.
UNEP's recent report, HFCs: A Critical Link in Protecting Climate and the Ozone Layer,
concludes HFCs have the potential to substantially influence climate. By 2050, the buildup of
_2
HFCs is projected to increase radiative forcing by as much as 0.4 W m relative to 2000 and this
increase would be as much as one-quarter of the expected increase in radiative forcing from CO2
buildup since 2000. The abundances of HFCs in the atmosphere are also rapidly increasing. One
example is HFC-134a, the most abundant HFC, which has increased by about 10% per year from
2006 to 2010.4 Global HFC emissions (excluding emissions of HFC-23) increased 8% per year
from 2004 to 2008. By acting now, UNEP concludes we can avoid an increase in high-GWP
HFC emissions that would otherwise offset the climate benefit achieved by the ODS phaseout.5
HFC emissions also occur during the production of some fluorocarbons. This paper also presents
analysis of potential benefits from globally reducing the byproduct emissions of HFC-23 during
the production of hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC)-22.
1 Velders, G. J. M., Fahey, D. W., Daniel, J. S., McFarland, M., and Andersen, S. O.: The large contribution of projected HFC
emissions to future climate forcing, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 106, 10949-10954, doi: 10.1073/pnas.0902817106,2009.
Accessible at: http://www.pnas.Org/content/earlv/2009/06/l9/0902817106.full.pdf+html
2 Gschrey, B., Schwarz, W., Eisner, C., Engelhardt, R.: High increase of global F-gas emissions until 2050, Greenhouse Gas
Measurement & Management 1, 85-92,2011.
3 UNEP, 2011. HFCs: A Critical Link in Protecting Climate and the Ozone Layer, United Nations Environment Programme
(UNEP), 36 pp. Accessible at http://www.unep.org/dewa/Portals/67/pdf/HFC report.pdf
4 Ibid.
5 Ibid.
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U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
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2. Proposed Amendment to Phase Down HFC Consumption and
Reduce HFC-23 Byproduct Emissions
The governments of Mexico, Canada, and the United States of America proposed an amendment
to the Montreal Protocol to phase down the consumption and production of HFCs and reduce
HFC-23 byproduct emissions. Key elements of this Amendment proposal include:
• Lists 19 HFCs as controlled substances under the Montreal Protocol.
• Recognizes that there may not be alternatives for all HFC applications at this time and
therefore relies on a gradual phase down mechanism with a plateau as opposed to a
complete phaseout.
• Establishes commitments for the developed country (non-Article 5) and developing
country (Article 5) phasedown of HFC production and consumption while providing
additional time for Article 5 countries.
o The baseline for Article 5 countries is calculated as 90% of the average HCFC
consumption and production in the years 2008-2010; HCFCs are used in
recognition of the HFC data limitations in some countries,
o For non-Article 5 countries, the baseline is determined from a combination of
HFC consumption or production (as relevant) plus 85% of HCFC consumption or
production respectively averaged over the years 2008-2010.
o The amendment uses Global Warming Potential (GWP) weighting for HFCs and
HCFCs.
• Includes provisions to limit HFC-23 byproduct emissions resulting from the production
of HCFCs and HFCs beginning in 2016.
• Requires reporting on HFC production, consumption, and byproduct emissions.
• Makes reductions in HFC production and consumption and byproduct emissions eligible
for funding under the Multilateral Fund for the Implementation of the Montreal Protocol
(MLF).
• Requires licensing of HFC imports and exports, and bans imports from and exports to
non-Parties.
3. Proposed Phasedown of HFC Consumption
3.1. Summary of Benefits Analysis
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA's) benefits analysis of the amendment
proposal suggests it would reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) consumption and emissions by 94,700
million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MMTCC^eq) through 2050 - of which
83,400 MMTC02eq can be attributed to HFC Phasedown and 11,300 MMTCC^eq can be
attributed to byproduct controls.
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U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
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U.S. EPA's analysis assumes the HFC reduction obligations in the proposal by Mexico, Canada
and the United States are met, and that all Parties (developed and developing countries) continue
to comply with current HCFC phaseout obligations. Although both the HFC proposal and the
HCFC controls would be effective simultaneously, individual countries would still have the
ability to examine their specific conditions and obligations, and determine whether their
transitions out of HCFC sectors would include an interim step (i.e., HCFC to HFC to low-GWP),
occur directly (HCFC to low-GWP), or continue to use fluorocarbons (HCFC to HFC) for the
foreseeable future. The estimated cumulative HFC consumption reductions from the phasedown
are 1,600 MMTCC^eq 6 through 2020, and 83,400 MMTCC^eq through 2050, assuming annual
global compliance with the proposed HFC phasedown requirements. As explained in Section 4
below, the estimated cumulative HFC emission reductions from the control of byproduct
emissions of HFC-23 are 1,000 MMTCC^eq through 2020, and 11,300 MMTCC^eq through
2050, assuming annual global compliance.
3.2. Assumptions for Establishing the Baseline and Projected Consumption
3.2.1. Baseline
Because HFCs have replaced HCFCs in many applications in some countries, the baseline used
by Mexico, Canada and the United States is set using historical information while accounting for
this transition. The baseline for all Parties uses data from the years 2008 through 2010. Since
HCFC controls for Article 5 countries did not start until 2013, with a freeze in 2013 followed by
a 10% reduction step in 2015, only historical HCFC consumption is used to set their baseline.
The baseline for Article 5 countries is calculated as 90% of the average 2008-2010 HCFC
consumption. The baseline for non-Article 5 countries is calculated as the average, for the years
2008-2010, of HFC consumption plus 85% of HCFC consumption. The formulas to calculate
baselines are shown in Table 1.
Table 1: Baselines
Party
Method (Average 2008-2010)
Non-Article 5 Parties
100% HFC Consumption + 85% HCFC Consumption
Article 5 Parties
90% HCFC Consumption
3.2.2. Estimated Consumption of HCFCs and HFCs
In addition to estimating historical HCFC and HFC consumption, U.S. EPA estimated business-
as-usual (BAU) HFC consumption through 2050 to determine the benefits of the proposed
phasedown. Such estimates are prepared regionally and aggregated below to reflect Article 5,
non-Article 5, and world totals.
6 The benefit calculations assume participation from all parties to the Montreal Protocol (i.e., global participation), with
consumption at the maximum level allowed under the proposed amendment. Other modeling techniques could calculate different
benefits. For instance, a different method could be used to analyze what reduction options are available, what benefits they would
achieve, and, assuming options are undertaken based solely on cost, the reductions that would be achieved.
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U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
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Estimated Consumption in Other Countries: HCFCs
For purposes of calculating baselines, aggregated developed and developing country HCFC-
specific consumption data as reported under Article 7 of the Montreal Protocol are used to
determine total GWP-weighted HCFC consumption. Reports from UNEP's Ozone Secretariat
are in ozone depleting potential (ODP)-tonnes; therefore, assumptions regarding the mix of
HCFCs for Article 5 countries are based on data gathered from HCFC Phaseout Management
Plans which contain species specific consumption data. Non-Article 5 countries' mix of HCFCs
is based on U.S. consumption patterns as reported to the Ozone Secretariat. Once this breakdown
is estimated, the ODP-weighted tonnes are converted into metric tonnes, which are then
multiplied by the GWPs in the proposed Amendment, taken from the Intergovernmental Panel on
n
Climate Change's Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), and used to develop total HCFC
consumption in terms of MMTC02eq.
Projected Consumption in the United States: HFCs
For estimates of U.S. HFC consumption, U.S. EPA used its Vintaging Model,8 which tracks and
projects past and future use and emissions of chemicals (including HFCs) in products that
previously relied on ODS. Although each type of product is modeled separately at its respective
growth rate as determined through information relevant to the product type, U.S. EPA projected
the U.S. growth of all products at an equal and steady amount beginning in 2030, the date at
which ODS consumption in the United States will cease. For this period 2030-2050, U.S. EPA
assumed an annual growth rate for each HFC-using product of 0.8%, which equals the
approximate population growth rate expected in the United States at that time. Previous
sensitivity studies using a 1.8% annual growth rate for 2030-2050 show an approximate 10%
increase in cumulative benefits through 2050.
Projected Consumption in Other Countries: HFCs
HFC consumption was estimated on a country-by-country basis and then aggregated to Article 5
and non-Article 5 regions. To develop the global HFC consumption baseline through 2050, U.S.
EPA relied on the approach used to develop two peer-reviewed reports released in 2006: Global
Anthropogenic Emissions of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases: 1990-2020 (U.S. EPA Report #430-
R-06-003)9 and Global Mitigation o/Non-C02 Greenhouse Gases (U.S. EPA Report #430-R-06-
005).10 This process, as outlined in those reports, generally follows these steps:
1. Gather ODS (i.e., chlorofluorocarbon (CFC), HCFC, halons, carbon tetrachloride, and
methyl chloroform) consumption data as reported under the Montreal Protocol. Data from
1986, 1989 or 1990 are chosen because they pre-date most of the ODS phaseout.11
2. Split ODS consumption by ODS type into end-use sectors (i.e., refrigeration/air
conditioning, aerosols, foams, solvents, and sterilization).
7 International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 2007. "Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis." Contribution of
Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Solomon, S., D. Qin, M.
Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor, and H.L. Miller (Eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United
Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. September 2007.
8 Vintaging Model, 12/16/2009. (This version is used to maintain consistency with past analyses presented to the Montreal
Protocol Parties.)
9 http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/Downloads/EPAactivities/GlobalAnthroEmissionsReport.pdf
10 http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/Downloads/EPAactivities/GlobalMitigationFullReport.pdf
11 If available, 1989 data is used; where 1989 data is not available, the next closest available year's data is used.
6
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U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
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3. Use ODS consumption to estimate HFC consumption by multiplying by the ratio of U.S.
HFC consumption for the relevant year to U.S. 1990 ODS consumption. U.S. HFC
consumption estimates are generated from U.S. EPA's Vintaging Model as described
above.
4. Scale HFC consumption by the region's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth relative
to U.S. historical and projected GDP. Data were obtained from the U.S. Energy
Information Administration (2008).12
5. Apply several adjustment factors to account for country-specific differences in transition
pathways:
a. Apply the later phaseout of ODS for Article 5 countries.
b. Account for a proportion of natural refrigerants (such as hydrocarbons) in lieu of
HFCs in the baseline for all regions except North America.
c. Account for lower levels of recovery and recycling of refrigerants from small
equipment in Article 5 countries and certain eastern European countries.
d. Account for regional transitions in the foams and fire protection sectors by using
results from regional Vintaging Model runs that modeled sector-specific data
from both the fire protection industry13 and the foams industry.14
6. Multiply the consumption (i.e., tonnes) by an average GWP to derive GWP-weighted
consumption (i.e., MMTC02eq). The average GWP, which varies by sector, is
determined by examining the estimated baseline HFC consumption in the United States
in 2012. This year is chosen because the U.S. HFC market is assumed to be relatively
mature by this date and, under a BAU scenario, the mix of HFCs, and hence the average
GWP, is not expected to change significantly thereafter. For instance, the year 2012 is
beyond the recent (January 1, 2010) U.S. and Montreal Protocol HCFC phaseout step.
The procedure outlined above is summarized in Equation 1:
Equation 1: Estimating HFC consumption from ODS consumption data
chi i HFC consumption Growth and Average GWP of GWP-weighted
^qrq'1'3 l0n * p n fSe * nnc ' ^ X other X HFC consumption = HFC consumption
,1989. as Percentage °DS~n adjustents ^
12 EIA (2008) International Energy Outlook 2008. Washington, D.C. Release date: June 2008. Department of Energy/Energy
Information Administration-084(2008). At: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/archive/ieo08/index.html
13 2001 Hughes Associates - International Market Share Data
14 Data provided by Paul Ashford in personal communications with ICF in 2004.
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U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
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Projected consumption estimates for Article 5 and non-Article 5 are shown in Graph 1 below.
Graph 1. Projected HFC Consumption 2012 Through 2050
Projected HFC Consumption
3,500
3,000
Non-A5 A5
cr
8 2,500
O
O
l-
s
s
2,000
c
¦-§_ 1,500
E
D
t/>
§ 1,000
o
500
\V r& nV r§~> & b?5
v ^cv jcv jcv j^y j^y j^y jr>P jrP jrP j>? -C\ ^or -.or -.or ~or jcy5
3.3. Reduction Scenario and Results
The reduction schedule used for this analysis appears in Table 2 and Graph 2 below. Targets
were set by considering the need to achieve significant reductions, the likely availability of
alternatives, and other obligations under the Montreal Protocol (e.g., HCFC phaseout).
Table 2: Proposed HFC Reduction Schedules
HFC Consumption
Reduction Schedule
Non-Article 5 Parties
Artie
e 5 Parties
Year
Cap (% of Baseline)
Year
Cap (% of Baseline)
2016
90%
2018
100%
2022
65%
2025
75%
2029
30%
2030
40%
2033
15%
2043
15%
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U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
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Graph 2. Proposed HFC Reduction Schedules
HFC Reduction Steps for Article 5 and Non-Article 5 Countries (% of Baseline)
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U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
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European Fluorinated Gas Regulation
The European Commission is working to strengthen existing controls on fluorinated gases, with
particular focus on HFCs. Proposed requirements would include a European phasedown and
quota system for the supply of HFCs beginning in 2015, along with bans on certain HFC-
containing equipment, and a requirement to destroy HFC-23 (a production byproduct). Existing
regulation on labeling, reporting requirements, and training programs have also been expanded to
cover HFCs.
Japanese Fluorinated Gas Regulation
In April 2013, Japan enacted a law updating their existing fluorocarbon regulation. The objective
of the new legislation is to reduce HFC emissions through measures that cover the total life cycle
of fluorocarbons from manufacture through disposal, as well as equipment using these gases.
Among other requirements, the law requires that entities manufacturing and importing air
conditioning and refrigeration units transition to either non-fluorinated gases or low-GWP
fluorocarbons by certain years.
Consumer Goods Forum Resolution
The Consumer Goods Forum (CGF), a group of over 400 private sector companies from 70
countries, has pledged to phase out HFC refrigerants in new point-of-sale units and large
refrigeration systems starting in 2015. CGF also urges companies to practice effective
maintenance to minimize, detect, and promptly repair leaks in existing refrigeration systems.
CGF members include The Coca Cola Company, 3M, Procter & Gamble, and Unilever. Given
the reach of many CGF companies, and the impact on national equipment production that similar
CFC-related pledges had, the global community can expect to see very significant changes in the
production and use of related equipment in developed and developing countries alike.
Arctic Council
The May 2013 Kiruna Declaration of the Arctic Council urged the Parties to the Montreal
Protocol to "take action as soon as possible to phase-down the consumption and production of
hydrofluorocarbons," because HFCs accelerate the melting and thawing of Arctic ice. The
Council, a high-level intergovernmental forum, recognized that reducing short-lived climate
pollutants such as HFCs can have positive impacts on both climate and human health, and is
currently working on a project to responsibly dispose of HFC-containing appliances to reduce
the emissions of HFCs in Arctic territories.
Rio +20
At the Rio+20 United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development (June 2012), countries
agreed to support a gradual phasedown in the consumption and production of HFCs in the
outcome document "The Future We Want." The Montreal Protocol controls consumption and
production of intentionally produced substances in the same sectors where HFCs are used, and
can effectively mitigate these substances, thus operationalizing paragraph 222 of the Rio+20
outcome document.
The Climate and Clean Air Coalition to Reduce Short-Lived Climate Pollutants
The Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC) to Reduce Short-Lived Climate Pollutants is a
voluntary initiative launched in 2012 aimed at achieving progress in addressing near-term
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U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
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contributions to global warming. The CCAC is focusing on HFCs as well as black carbon and
methane, and has already sponsored several capacity building activities such as workshops and
conferences focusing on enabling the use of climate-friendly alternatives to high-GWP HFCs and
removing barriers to their adoption. The CCAC is also helping countries inventory their HFC
sectors, and is producing case studies to share information about successful transitions to
climate-friendly alternatives in areas such as commercial refrigeration. Additional capacity
building efforts have been planned.
Fulfilling the Vision of Decision XIX/6
In taking the 2007 decision to accelerate the phaseout of HCFCs, the Parties emphasized the
need for the Executive Committee to give priority to projects that promote substitutes and
alternatives that minimize other impacts on the environment, including on the climate, taking
into account global-warming potential, energy use and other relevant factors. While the goal to
achieve climate benefits has been considered in many different ways, two significant tools that
have been used by the Multilateral Fund are projects designed to demonstrate and optimize
alternatives to high-GWP substitutes, and the provision of enhanced funding for those projects
that utilize low-GWP technologies. EPA's benefits analysis for the accelerated HCFC phaseout
produced a range based on the transition to alternatives and improved energy efficiency. If the
accelerated HCFC phaseout resulted in transition predominantly to high-GWP HFCs, the
benefits through 2040 would be 3 gigatons CC^eq, while a transition to only low-GWP
alternatives would result in 16 gigatons C02eq avoided. The assumption was that a mix of low-
and high-GWP alternatives would result in 9 gigatons CC^eq of emissions avoided. Since 2007,
a number of additional new climate-friendly alternatives have been developed and deployed.
3.5. Availability of Alternatives for Meeting the Reduction Schedule
When the North American amendment was first proposed in 2010, the availability of alternatives
(in this case for HFCs) was similar to the availability of CFC alternatives at the 1987 signing of
the Montreal Protocol, and similar to when the Parties agreed to phase out HCFCs. Alternatives
are known and in use for some end uses, but not in all cases. This is still true today, but over the
last several years, a number of new alternatives have been made available and significant
experience has been gained in optimizing more mature low-GWP technologies. Accordingly,
there are currently fewer end uses for which a menu of proven alternatives is not available.
As part of the U.S. ozone layer protection program, the U.S. EPA established the regulatory
Significant New Alternatives Policy (SNAP) program in 1994. The SNAP program encourages a
smooth and timely transition from ODS to a variety of alternatives across major industrial,
commercial, and military sectors. The SNAP program's findings are relevant globally and can be
used by countries as they consider adopting safer alternatives. The SNAP program currently
provides a broad menu of alternatives with a range of GWPs - both HFC and non-HFC options.
As the SNAP menu continues to be updated, more low-GWP and no-GWP alternatives are being
added.
SNAP continues to identify substitutes - for ODS as well as HFCs - that offer lower overall
risks to human health and the environment. The risk factors considered include:
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U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
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• Ozone Depletion Potential (ODP);
• Global Warming Potential (GWP);
• Flammability;
• Toxicity;
• Contributions to smog;
• Aquatic and ecosystem effects; and,
• Occupational health and safety.
To date, U.S. EPA has reviewed over 400 substitutes in the refrigeration and air conditioning;
fire suppression; foam blowing; solvent cleaning; aerosols; adhesives, coatings, and inks;
sterilants; and tobacco expansion sectors. Across all sectors, since the initiation of the SNAP
program in 1994, roughly one-third of the substitutes reviewed contain HFCs. For the
refrigeration and air conditioning sector, HFCs have dominated. However, the SNAP program
has issued several rulemakings, and is currently considering a number of other such rulemakings
and projects, that have and will continue to provide additional low-GWP or no-GWP options
including hydrocarbons and low-GWP hydrofluoroolefins (HFOs).
The amendment proposal is GWP-weighted and does not fully phase out HFCs. It is anticipated
that countries, including the United States, will use a mixture of fluorinated and non-fluorinated
options. U.S. EPA analyzed certain sector-specific, technically- and economically-viable
mitigation options for HFCs. The most promising options to reduce HFC consumption fall into
these broad categories:
• Substituting high-GWP HFCs with low-GWP or no-GWP substances in a variety of
applications (where safety and performance requirements can be met);
• Implementing new technologies that use, at installation and/or over the lifetime of the
equipment, no or significantly lower amounts of HFCs; and,
• Various process and handling options—including the principles of refrigerant recovery
and management implemented during the CFC phaseout—that reduce consumption
during the manufacture, use, and disposal of products that contain or use HFCs.
Information on existing and potential options to reduce HFCs can be found in Tables 4 through
6. For some subsectors additional information also is available on U.S. EPA's website, as
discussed below.
Finally, over the last twelve months, two significant international conferences were held in
Bangkok, Thailand and Montreal, Canada to review progress on low-GWP alternatives, and the
results of those workshops can be found at:
http://www.unep.org/ccac/Actions/HFCAlternativeTechnologyandStandards/tabid/104667/Defau
lt.aspx.
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Table 4. HFC Substitutes by Sector: Aerosols, Foams, Fire Suppression & Solvents
End-Use
Substitute or Mitigation Strategy
Change in CO^e
Where Adopted*
Years Until
Available**
Replace HFC-134a with HFC-152a
91%
Available Now
Non-Medical
Hydrocarbons
-100%
Available Now
o
Xfi
Not-in-Kind (pumps, roll-ons, etc.)
100%
Available Now
o
u
4)
<
HFO-1234ze(E)
95.2 to 99.6%
Available Now
Medical
Dry Powder Inhalers
100%
Available Now
Injections / Tablets
100%
10+
a
Total
Flooding
Inert Gases
100%
Available Now
o
"cfl
Water Mist
100%
Available Now
•- u
to a
a
s
(Z3
Fluorinated Ketone
99.97%
Available Now
All
Other Low-GWP Substances
-90 to 100%
Available Now to
<10
Various
Hydrocarbons
-100%
Available Now
S/j
e
XPS
C02, HFO-1234ze(E),
HFO-1336mzz(Z), -1233zd(E)
99.3 to 99.9%
<5
Spray
h2o, co2
99.9 to 100%
<5
%
o
3
Appliance,
Sandwich
Methyl Formate, HFO-1234ze(E),
-1233zd(E)
99.3 to 100%
Available Now
S
es
Panels, Spray
HFO-133 6mzz(Z)
99.0%
<5
O
to
Appliance
Foam
Capture / Destruction at End-of-Life
(EOL)
-90%
Available Now
Construction
Foam
Capture / Destruction at EOL
-90%
10+
Electronics &
Precision
Aqueous & Semi-Aqueous
100%
Available Now
e
a>
>•
Hydrofluoroethers (HFEs)
65 to 96%
Available Now
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U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
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Table 5. HFC Substitutes by Sector: Air Conditioning
End-Use
Substitute or Mitigation Strategy
Change in C02e
Where Adopted
Years Until
Available
All End Uses
Refrigerant Management: Recovery,
Reclamation and Destruction
10 to 100%*
Available Now
Leak Repair
10 to 100%*
Available Now
Auto A/C
Enhanced HFC-134a Systems
50%
Available Now
HFO-1234yf
99.7%
Available Now
C02, HFC-152a
91.3 to 99.9%
<5
Bus, Train A/C
HFO-1234yf, C02
99.7 to 99.9%
<5
Residential &
Commercial A/C
MicroChannel Heat Exchangers
35 to 50%
Available Now
HFC-32, Low-GWP Blends
50 to 90%
<5
Room A/C
Hydrocarbons, C02, HFO-1234yf
99.8 to-100%
Available Now to <5
Dehumidifiers
Chillers
Ammonia
100%
Available Now
HFC-32, Low-GWP Blends
-50%
<10
HFO-1234ze(E), -1233zd(E)
99.5 to 99.6%
<5
* Wide range indicates the wide range of practices across different end-uses and institutional behaviors.
Table 6. HFC Substitutes by Sector: Refrigeration
End-Use
Substitute or Mitigation
Strategy
Change in C02e
Where Adopted
Years Until Available
All End Uses
Refrigerant Management:
Recovery, Reclamation and
Destruction
10 to 100%*
Available Now
Leak Repair
10 to 100%*
Available Now
Low Charge / Low Leak
Supermarkets
Technologies (e.g., Cascade or
Secondary Systems)
90 to 100%
Available Now
Low-GWP Blends
50 to 90%
Available Now to <10
Ammonia
100%
Available Now
Chillers
HFC-32, Low-GWP Blends
-50%
<10
HFO-1234ze(E), -1233zd(E)
99.5 to 99.6%
<5
Home Refrigerators/
F reezers
Hydrocarbons
-100%
Available Now
Stand-Alone
Commercial
Available Now
Refrigerators/ Freezers
Hydrocarbons, COt
99.9 to-100%
Beverage Coolers
Available Now
Ice Makers
<5
Vending Machines
C02, Hydrocarbons
99.9 to-100%
Available Now to <5
Transport
Refrigeration
Hydrocarbons, Ammonia,
Low-GWP Blends, C02
50 to 100%
<5 to <10
Cold Storage
Ammonia, C02
100%
Available Now
* Wide range indicates the wide range of practices across different end-uses and institutional behaviors.
14
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U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
June 2013
It is clear that many options exist across all major sectors to reduce—and in some, even
eliminate—the use of HFCs. Some of these options are available today, meaning they could be
used to meet HCFC phaseout obligations while at the same time contributing to the proposed
HFC reductions. Indeed, this was the intent of the Montreal Protocol's decision XIX/6 which
called on the Parties to promote the selection of HCFC alternatives that minimize environmental
impacts, in particular impacts on climate, as well as meeting other health, safety and economic
considerations. While low-GWP alternatives already exist for many end-use applications,
additional research is already underway in companies around the world to find alternatives for
other important applications, such as large residential and light-commercial air conditioning (i.e.,
unitary air conditioners and multi-splits).
3.6. Transitioning to Low-GWP Alternatives
A detailed analysis of how individual Parties might meet the proposed reduction schedule has not
been performed, as related choices would depend on national circumstances and preferences.
However, many types of transitions can be foreseen and are shown schematically in Figures 1
through 5 below. For example, some automobile manufacturers, including General Motors, have
already begun to introduce HFO-1234yf air conditioning systems in Europe and the United
States.
Several options in foam-blowing, including hydrocarbons and HFOs, also offer an opportunity
for non-Article 5 countries to reduce HFC consumption, and for Article 5 countries to leap frog
HFCs altogether in certain applications. Many types of hermetic air-conditioning and
refrigeration equipment—including domestic refrigerators, vending machines, and bottle
coolers—are becoming available worldwide with low-GWP alternatives in lieu of HCFC-22,
HFC-134a and other high-GWP chemicals. A number of key multinational corporations have
also pledged to phase out the use of HFCs as refrigerants in newly manufactured equipment.
Over the past few years, a number of Article 5 countries have included a range of lower-GWP
alternatives in their HCFC Phaseout Management Plans (HPMPs). For example, rather than
using R-410A (an HFC blend with a GWP of 2,088), Indonesia is using R-32 (an HFC with a
GWP of 675) for certain air conditioning applications. China agreed to convert at least 18
manufacturing lines for the production of room air-conditioning equipment, including both
window units and mini-splits, to the hydrocarbon R-290. Many countries included hydrocarbons
in their foam sector HPMPs when phasing out of HCFC-141b.
U.S. EPA has developed a series of sector-specific fact sheets to provide more current
information on low-GWP or no-GWP alternatives. Seven fact sheets are currently available on
U.S. EPA's website at: www.epa.gov/ozone/intpol/mpagreement.html:
• Commercial Refrigeration;
• Domestic Refrigeration;
• Motor Vehicle Air Conditioning;
• Unitary Air-Conditioning;
• Transport Refrigeration;
• Construction Foam; and
• Non-Medical Aerosols.
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U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
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Figures 1 through 5 illustrate some of the transition pathways that have occurred and are
emerging as CFCs and HCFCs are being phased out and a combination of HFCs and low-GWP
alternatives are being used. In some cases, such as motor vehicle air conditioning (MVAC)
(Figure 1), industry moved to one option (HFC-134a), but is now in a position to introduce
various low-GWP alternatives, one of which, R-1234yf, is already in use in some models. In
other cases, such as domestic refrigeration and unitary air conditioning (Figures 2 through 4),
some companies moved directly from ODS to low-GWP options while others first moved to
HFCs and are now considering the low-GWP options.
Figure 1. Refrigerant Transition in the MVAC End-Use (Passenger Vehicles and Light
Trucks)
Passenger Vehicles
and Light Duty Trucks:
<
R-744
! r
<
R-1234yf
R-12 —R-134a
1 L
R-1243zf Blend
L.
R-152a
Figure 2. Refrigerant Transition in the Domestic Refrigeration End-Use
Figure 3. Blowing Agent Transition in the Domestic Refrigeration End-Use
Methyl Formate
Cyclopentane
Blends
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U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
June 2013
Figure 4. Refrigerant Transition in the Unitary Air Conditioning End-Use
'~ R-32
-~ R-410A —
HFOs
R-22 —
—
-~ R-290
^ R-407C —I
U- R-744
Figure 5. Refrigerant Transition in the Commercial Refrigeration End-Use (Stand-
alone Equipment)
R-744
R-404A
R-12
R-600a
R-22
R-134a
R-290
These five and 14 other diagrams are available in the seven sector fact sheets listed above.
U.S. EPA performed a preliminary analysis of how HFC consumption could be reduced in the
United States. Multiple alternatives were analyzed, including many of those highlighted in
Tables 4 through 6 and in the transition pathways in Figures 1 through 5. As shown in Graph 3, a
multi-sector approach could be used by the United States to reduce HFC consumption from the
increasing business-as-usual projection to levels necessary to meet the proposed amendment. It is
assumed here that some HFC use will continue to be used beyond 2033, as anticipated in the
reduction to a 15% level called for in the proposed Amendment. In this example, it is clear that
the majority of reductions come from the refrigeration and air conditioning sectors, but that
reductions from the other sectors also play an important part. Existing options could help the
United States meet its obligations in the near term; however, some projected alternatives need to
be developed and implemented in the next decade or so, and potentially other or better reduction
alternatives need to be found, for compliance in the long term.
17
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U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
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Graph 3. Potential HFC Consumption Reductions by Sector for the United States
700
U.S. HFC Consumption (MMTC02eq)
2010
2020
2030
2040
~ MobileAC
cziFoams
~ Refrigeration
^Stationary AC
^OtherSectors
~AC Projected
^—Mitigated
HFC Cap (2012)
BAU
2050
3.7. Case Studies in the Transition to Low-GWP Alternatives
3.7.1. Transitions at the Regional and National Levels
The following are summaries of transitions certain nations or regions have taken to adopt low-
GWP alternatives in specific sectors. These four examples show how national circumstances can
be taken into account while adopting low-GWP alternatives. Example national and regional level
transition summaries are available from the U.S. EPA sector fact sheets.
Unitary Air Conditioning: China's Experience
China manufactures half of the world's 50 million mini-split air conditioner (AC)
systems annually. It is the largest manufacturer of AC equipment in the developing
world. A significant portion of production is for the export market—China supplies
nearly 85% of the window, wall, and mini-split AC imports to the United States, and is
also a major supplier to Europe, Asia and elsewhere. While R-22 continues to dominate
unitary AC domestically, China manufactures both R-22 and R-410A units. The R-410A
units are in high demand as exports to developed countries. China has commercialized
room ACs with R-290 and, under their HPMP, agreed to convert a number of their
production lines for unitary AC products to R-290 as well as R-32.
Construction Foams: Europe's Experience
The European Union phased out HCFCs in construction foam by the early 2000s and
much of the building/construction sector transitioned directly to hydrocarbons (HCs),
having used these blowing agents in other products since the early 1990s. Some smaller
18
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U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
June 2013
companies, as well as those making foams with stringent end-use flammability standards,
used HFCs. Through product development, most of these standards now can be met with
HC-based foams, and HFC use has diminished. Notably, even in the spray foam
application, which has relied primarily on HFCs due to the higher flammability risks
(relative to other foam applications), next-generation low-GWP alternatives, such as
-1233zd(E), have recently started to become available.15'16
Refrigerated Transport Trucks and Trailers: Norway's Experience
In 2007, liquid CO2 refrigerant-based cryogenic systems were introduced into Norway's
road transport refrigeration market. Cryogenic truck and trailer systems use liquid CO2
for refrigeration to minimize environmental impact and noise while providing high
reliability and lower maintenance.
In 2011, approximately 16% of new refrigerated truck and trailer systems sold in Norway
were equipped with cryogenic refrigeration systems. One of Norway's largest food
distributors has committed to making cryogenic system-equipped vehicles the standard
for all of their future purchases. In addition, a major manufacturer of cryogenic systems
has partnered with one of Norway's largest refrigerant suppliers to provide CO2 filling
stations across the country. Cryogenic systems are currently used in other European
countries (e.g., Sweden, Denmark, Finland, France, the Netherlands, and Germany), and
are being piloted in the United States. Use of liquid CO2 refrigerant-based cryogenic
systems is expected to expand further in the future, particularly in Western Europe.
Commercial Refrigeration Systems: Australia's Experience
Australia's major supermarkets have committed to reducing commercial refrigeration
emissions through lower GWP refrigerants, advanced refrigeration technology, and
innovative store designs. The supermarket chains determined that half of their emissions
(in CC^eq) are from refrigeration systems. Losses from HFC refrigerants account for a
significant portion of these emissions. Supermarkets are incorporating CO2 cascade and
transcritical refrigeration systems to meet their target reductions in C02eq emissions.
Shifting from HFCs to CO2 can eliminate direct system emissions while potentially also
reducing indirect emissions associated with energy consumption: CO2 transcritical
systems operate most efficiently in cooler climates, where they have been found to
perform an estimated 5% to 10% more efficiently than conventional systems using an
HFC refrigerant in regions with an average annual temperature below 50°F (10°C).17
However, due to a possible energy penalty, the use of CO2 transcritical systems in
warmer climates is currently considered less viable. That said, significant work is
underway that could result in greater use of transcritical systems in warmer climates. As
18
of 2011, at least 51 stores have implemented this new technology. Australia has
15 Honeywell. 2013. Regulations, http://www.honey well-blowingagents.com/regulation/#european-union
16 Honeywell. 2011. Honeywell Solstice™ Liquid Blowing Agent. November 2011. http: //www, honey well-
blowingagents.com/?document=solstice-liauid-blowing-agent-product-overview-europe&download=l
17 Supermarket News. 2012. "Refrigeration Systems Chillin' with Carbon Dioxide." Available at:
http://supermarketnews.com/technologv/refrigeration-svstems-chillin-carbon-dioxide?page=l
sho wtext. cfm?t=ptbO 810
18 Rees, Brian (McAlpine Hussmann Ltd.). 2011. "Supermarket Refrigeration Trends in the Asia Pacific Region." September
2011. Available at: http://www.epa.gov/greenchill/downloads/non us refrigeration trends asia.pdf.
19
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U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
June 2013
evaluated the benefits of new technologies and provided assistance to update supermarket
refrigeration equipment.
3.7.2. Transitions at the Company and Project Levels
Some examples of specific company actions to adopt low-GWP alternatives are discussed below.
These illustrate how individual companies are already moving towards a low-GWP future, often
without any regulatory requirements to do so. In addition, some specific case studies of projects
are shown below as examples of actions to adopt environmentally sound alternatives.
Hydrocarbon Ice Cream Freezers: Unilever's Experience
In 2000, Unilever, an international food, refreshment, home and personal care products
company that owns about 2 million ice cream freezers throughout the world, pledged that
it would not buy ice cream freezers that were charged with HFC refrigerants after 2005 in
countries where legal and commercially-viable alternatives were available.19 After
deciding that hydrocarbons were the most viable option, the company had 50 R-290 ice
cream freezers manufactured for the 2000 Sydney Olympics. Testing of this equipment
confirmed that the R-290 cabinets would be able to maintain the correct temperatures
even under severe use conditions. It was also found that the cases used considerably less
energy than comparable freezers using R-404A (an HFC blend). By mid-2008, there were
20
270,000 such units in use worldwide; and by 2009, Unilever alone had placed over
400,000 HC ice-cream coolers around the world, including South Africa, China, Europe,
21
Brazil and the United States. Unilever has continued to expand in these markets with
22
more than 900,000 HC freezers in use globally by 2012, and has committed to
purchasing a further 850,000 units by 2015.23
Carbon Dioxide Vending Machines: Sanyo's Experience
Sanyo has produced CO2 compressors since 2001, originally developed for heat pump
water heaters. Using this technology, Sanyo developed the first CO2 vending machine,
which was field tested in February 2004 in Australia. Results from these tests showed
that the CO2 system consumed 17% less energy compared to the comparable HFC-134a
system during the summer season. Beginning in 2005, CO2 vending machines began
being sold in Japan and have represented a significant and growing portion of the
Japanese market—estimated at 116,000 units in 20 1 0.24,25 Coca-Cola is using CO2 as the
19 Australian Institute of Refrigeration, Air Conditioning, and Heating (AIRAH). 2007. "Natural Refrigerant Case Studies."
Available online at: http://www.environment.gov.au/atmosphere/ozone/publications/pubs/refrigerants-guide.pdf.
20 Gerwen, Rene Van, Alan Gerrard, and Fabio Roberti. 2008. "Ice Cream Cabinets Using Hydrocarbon Refrigerant: From
Technology Concept to Global Rollout." Prepared for the 8th IIR Gustav Lorentzen Conference on Natural Working Fluids.
Available online at:
http://www.unilever.com/images/Ice%20Cream%20Cabinets%20Using%20a%20Hvdrocarbon%20Refrigerant%20-
%20From%20Technologv%20Concept%20to%20Global%20Rollout tcml3-262015.pdf.
21 Greenpeace. 2010. "Cool Technologies: Working without HFCs." Available online at: http://www.hvsave.com/wp-
content/uploads/2010/07/COOLING-WITHQUT-HFCs-June-2010-Edition.pdf.
22 Unilever. 2012. Unilever and Ben & Jerry's Bring Climate-Friendly Freezer Cabinets to U.S. February 14, 2012.
http://www.unileverusa.com/media-
center/pressreleases/2012/UnileverandBenandJerrvsBringClimateFriendlvFreezerCabinets.aspx
23 Unilever. Undated. Climate-Friendly Refrigeration, http: //www, unilever. com/ sustainable-living/greenhouse gases/ climate-
friendlv-refrigeration/
24 Sanyo Electric Co. 2008. "C02 Vending Machines." Technical Meeting on HCFC Phase-Out.
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U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
June 2013
refrigerant in vending machines (listed as acceptable by the SNAP program in 2012).
Several years ago, Coca-Cola installed 35 units under a test market agreement in the U.S.
Capitol buildings as part of the House's former "Green the Capitol" program.26 Today,
more than 700,000 of Sanyo's CO: compressor units are in use globally in vending
machines, water fountains, glass door cases, supermarket show cases and heat pumps.:7
Transcritical Carbon Dioxide Supermarkets: Sobeys' Experience
Since the first supermarket transcritical CO2 system installation in 2002—at a Coop store
28
in Lestans, Italy—around 1,200 such systems have been installed across Europe. The
technology is now spreading to North America. Sobeys, Canada's second largest food
retailer, installed its first transcritical CO2 system in July 2006 and has plans to
implement the technology in all of its 1,300 stores in 15 years. In one study of three
transcritical stores compared to 22 conventional stores using R-507 (an HFC blend),
Sobeys found the transcritical system required 18% to 21% less energy. Also, Sobeys did
not experience significant problems with the systems despite operating during the higher-
than-normal temperatures experienced in Quebec in the summers of 2010, 2011, and
2012.29
Low-GWP HFC Air Conditioning: Daikin's Experience
In 2011, the Indonesia Ministry of Environment and Ministry of Industry; the Japan
Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry; Daikin and Panasonic, and with support of the
United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), reached an agreement to introduce
HFC-32 air conditioners in the Indonesian market. Soon after, Fujitsu General, Hitachi,
30
and Toshiba also joined the new partnership. Today, R-32 AC products are available in
Japan31 and India,32 while manufacturers in other developing countries also plan to
33
transition to R-32 AC systems—including Algeria, China, and Thailand.
Ammonia Supermarket: Supervalu's Experience
Supervalu opened an ammonia-based refrigeration system in their Albertsons store in
Carpinteria, California in 2012, the first in the United States. The Carpinteria Albertsons
store is a remodeled unit that doubled in size to 40,000 square feet. The store had used
HCFC-22 in a conventional direct expansion (DX) refrigeration system, which was
25 Greenpeace. 2010. "Cool Technologies: Working without HFCs." Available online at: http://www.hvsave.com/wp-
content/uploads/2010/07/CQOLING-WITHQUT-HFCs-June-2010-Edition.pdf.
26 R744.com. 35 C02 vending machines installed at the US Capitol. April 29,2010. Available online at:
http://www.r744.com/articles/2010-04-29-35-co2-vending-machines-installed-at-the-us-capitol.php
27 R744.com. Growing interest in C02 products - view from 2013 China Refrigeration - Part 2. April 17, 2013. Available online
at: http://www.r744.com/news/view/4116
28 ACR News. "UK a leader in transcritical C02 refrigeration." Available online at: http://www.acr-
news.com/news/news.asp?id=2767&title=UK+a+leader+in+transcritical+C02+refrigeration.
29 Supermarket News, 2012. "Refrigeration Systems Chillin' with Carbon Dioxide." Available online at:
http://supermarketnews.com/technologv/refrigeration-svstems-chillin-carbon-dioxide.
30 JARN News, August 2011 "Indonesia-Japan HFC-32 Partnership Targets Room Air Conditioner Market" Available online at:
http://www.ei arn.com/news. asp?ID=16248
31 Daikin. September 27,2012. News Release: World's First Commercialization of Air Conditioning Equipment Using Next-
Generation Refrigerant HFC32. Obtained February 14,2013 at: http://www.daikin.com/press/2012/120927/index.html.
32 ACR-News. 2013. Daikin launches R32 units in India. February 12, 2013. Available online at: http://www.acr-
news.com/news/news.asp?id=3200&title=Daikin+launches+R32+units+in+India.
33 Stanga, Mark (Daikin Industries, Ltd). 2012. "Alternative Refrigerant R-32 in Air Conditioning." Presented at Advancing
Ozone and Climate Protection Technologies: Next Steps, Bangkok, Thailand, July 22, 2012. Available online at:
http://www.unep.org/ccac/Portals/24183/docs/Bangkok%20Technologv%20Conference%20-%20Report%20and%20Cover%20-
%20FINAL.pdf.
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U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
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replaced with one that uses ammonia as the primary refrigerant with CO2 for medium-
temperature cases, and a combined cascade and DX system for low-temperature cases. A
month after operating the new system, Supervalu was impressed with its performance.34
The new system is expected to result in 30% reduction in annual energy consumption,
equating to savings of $100,000 per year.35
Liquid Propane Extruded Polystyrene (XPS) Foam: Egypt's Experience
The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) implemented a project in Egypt to
phase out the use of ODS in XPS foam. Although butane and isobutane were considered
for the conversion, ultimately liquid propane gas was used due to its lower cost and
because the gas could be obtained easily for this project. Local contractors were hired to
complete the conversion. The conversion resulted in improved quality of the foam; the
foam had a softer touch (which consumers preferred) and was less brittle. Its density was
also reduced, which improved the market position of the company. The project performed
a safety audit that concluded that the plant was operated safely with use of liquid propane
gas as the blowing agent.
4. Byproduct Emissions of HFC-23
4.1. Proposed Amendment and Current Mitigation Activities
The Mexico, Canada, and U.S. Amendment proposal includes provisions that limit HFC-23
byproduct emissions resulting from the production of HCFCs and HFCs beginning in 2016.
HFC-23 is a potent greenhouse gas that is 14,800 times more damaging to the Earth's climate
system than carbon dioxide. HFC-23 is a known byproduct from the production of HCFC-22.
HCFC-22 is used primarily as a refrigerant and as a feedstock for manufacturing synthetic
polymers. HCFC-22 is an ODS; non-feedstock production of it is scheduled for phaseout by
2040 under the Montreal Protocol. However, given the extensive use of HCFC-22 as a feedstock,
its production is projected to continue indefinitely. While a small amount of HFC-23 is used
predominantly in plasma-etching processes in semiconductor manufacturing, as a fire suppres-
sant, and either neat or as a blend component in cryogenic refrigeration, the vast majority of
HFC-23 produced is not used and is either emitted, captured or destroyed. Recent studies36
indicate that HFC-23 emissions continue to increase in developing countries, despite global
efforts to curb emissions.
Nearly all producers in non-Article 5 countries have implemented process optimization and/or
thermal destruction to reduce HFC-23 emissions. For example, U.S. EPA worked in partnership
with production facilities located in the United States to develop and implement technically
feasible, cost-effective processing practices or technologies to reduce HFC-23 emissions from
34 Supermarket News June 2012 "Supervalu Pleased With Ammonia Refrigerant" Available online at:
http://supermarketnews.com/technologv/supervalu-pleased-ammonia-refrigerant
35 U.S. Department of Energy. Undated. Albertsons Carpinteria Remodel & Expansion.
http://www4.eere.energv.gov/challenge/showcase/supervalu/albertsons-carpinteria-remodel
36 Montzka et al.: Recent increases in global HFC-23 emissions, Geophysical Research Letters, 37, L02808,
doi:10.1029/2009GL041195, 2010.
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U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
June 2013
the manufacture of HCFC-22. Since 2010, U.S. emissions of HFC-23 from the production of
HCFC-22 must be reported to U.S. EPA as part of the Greenhouse Gas Mandatory Reporting
Rule (40 CFRPart 98). U.S. EPA's report, Global Mitigation of Non-CO 2 Greenhouse Gases,37
analyzes technology options that can be deployed in both Article 5 and non-Article 5 countries to
minimize such emissions.
Some developing country HFC-23 emissions have been mitigated through Clean Development
Mechanism (CDM) projects using destruction technologies, namely thermal oxidation or plasma
arc. The CDM allows emission-reduction projects in developing countries to earn certified
emission reduction (CER) credits, each equivalent to one ton of CO2. Not all HCFC-22 facilities
have been eligible to earn credits under CDM; therefore, a number of facilities may not have
emission reduction technology installed. Today, the HFC-23 credit market appears to be
shrinking, since many countries are no longer willing to purchase these credits. In 2011, the
European Commission formally adopted a ban on HFC-23 credits in the European Union's
Emissions Trading System. The ban recently went into effect as of May 2013. Many questions
concerning the state of the HFC-23 market remain, including whether there are longer term
contracts (at fixed prices in some cases) that may keep this market alive into the future to some
extent. Also, individual countries may have national regimes that include HFC-23 offsets.
However, many countries in the European Union as well as Australia and New Zealand have
announced that they too will not accept credits generated from HFC-23 destruction. It is unclear
how offset credits or emissions reduction credits from HFC-23 destruction may be accounted for
in the future; therefore, in order to conservatively estimate benefits, this analysis assumes
business as usual within CDM.
38
Approximately 43 HCFC-22 production lines were identified in Article 5 countries. There are
about 23 production lines in Article 5 countries with CDM Projects approved. An estimated 20
production lines are assumed to not currently have emission control technologies installed. Given
that CDM only covers some facilities, this benefits analysis assumes that the provisions in the
Amendment proposal apply to all countries and that controls to mitigate (i.e., destroy) HFC-23
emissions are installed in all production lines that do not already have an approved project under
the CDM to control emissions of HFC-23.
The timelines for crediting periods vary for each CDM project; they are either granted a one-time
10-year crediting period or a 7-year renewable crediting period for up to 21 total years. Below is
39
a schematic of the time periods. Table 8 illustrates the timeline of the 18 CDM projects and
each project's renewal process, if any. The first crediting year of current CDM projects was
2004; the last crediting year will be 2029.
37 Global Mitigation of Non-CO 2 Greenhouse Gases (USEPA 430-R-06-005, June 2006). Available at:
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/Downloads/EPAactivities/GlobalMitigationFullReport.pdf
38 "Summary of Information Publicly Available on Relative Elements of the Operation of Clean Development Mechanisms and
the Amounts of HCFC-22 Production Available for Credits" by Executive Committee of the Multilateral Fund for the
Implementation of the Montreal Protocol, Fifty-seventh Meeting, Montreal, 30 March - 3 April 2009. Available at:
http://www.multilateralfund.Org/sites/57th/Document%20Librarv2/l/5762.pdf and "Preliminary Data on the HCFC Production
Sector in China" Excel worksheet (HCFC PRODUCTION SECTOR PLANT.xls) accessible online at:
https://www.ungm. org/Notices/Item. aspx?Id= 14001
39 Note that two CDM projects in China apply to the same facility. Hence, these 18 projects represent 17 facilities.
23
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U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
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Table 8: Timeline for CDM Projects Crediting
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24
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U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
June 2013
4.2. Benefits from Byproduct Controls
Benefits were calculated with UNEP reported and projected data for HCFC consumption,
feedstock production estimates (Montzka, 2009), publicly available data on individual CDM
Projects (accessible at: http://cdm.unfccc.int/). and data from the MLF Secretariat.40 Using the
data from the CDM, the annual amount of CERs for each project, which is based on IPCC
Second Assessment Report (SAR) GWP values, is transformed to reflect the updated GWPs in
AR4 and the Amendment proposal. As CDM projects go offline, the benefits are included in the
cumulative total. Benefits from production lines not covered under CDM, from both Article 5
and non-Article 5 countries, are assumed to accrue beginning in 2016.
A number of assumptions were made to estimate the benefits: HCFC-22 production for feedstock
is projected to increase at a rate of 5% per year through 2050 (based on Montzka, 2009); HCFC-
22 production for consumption (i.e., non-feedstock uses) is derived from HCFC consumption
data for 2009 through 201241 and adjusted to reflect the HCFC phasedown; and, the baseline
(i.e., without the amendment proposal) fraction of HFC-23 produced per tonne of HCFC-22 is
estimated to be 3% in Article 5 countries based on CDM methodologies and 1% in non-A5
countries. Once the total HCFC-22 production is estimated from adding together the adjusted
consumption plus projected feedstock, the total is multiplied by the estimated fraction of HFC-23
produced per tonne of HCFC-22. That result is then multiplied by the GWP of HFC-23 and
finally divided by 1,000,000 to yield the benefits for that year in MMTCC^eq. Results are shown
in Table 9 below.
Table 9: Estimated Benefits of HFC-23 Byproduct Emission Controls
Cumulative HFC-23 Byproduct Emission Reductions (MMTC02eq)
Party
2016 to 2020
2016 to 2030
2016 to 2040
2016 to 2050
Non-Article 5 Parties
300
900
2,000
3,800
Article 5 Parties
700
2,100
4,200
7,500
World Byproduct
Controls
1,000
3,000
6,200
11,300
In April 2013, the Executive Committee of the MLF reached an agreement with China to phase
out all HCFC production for consumption by 2030. China is by far the largest Article 5 producer
of HCFC-22 and has 34 out of the 43 identified production lines. While the agreement will phase
out the HCFC-22 production for consumption, this analysis already accounted for the HCFC-22
phaseout as well as the growth in HCFC-22 for feedstock use; thus, no adjustment is necessary.
The amendment proposed by Canada, Mexico and the United States includes provisions to
reduce emissions of HFC-23 from HCFC-22 production; however, the obligations do not apply
to emissions from production lines that have an approved project under CDM to control HFC-23
40 "Summary of Information Publicly Available on Relative Elements of the Operation of Clean Development Mechanisms and
the Amounts of HCFC-22 Production Available for Credits" by Executive Committee of the Multilateral Fund for the
Implementation of the Montreal Protocol, Fifty-seventh Meeting, Montreal, 30 March - 3 April 2009. Available at:
http://www.multilateralfund.Org/sites/57tl-i/Document%20Librarv2/l/5762.pdf
41 "Updated Model Rolling Three-Year Phase-Out Plan: 2011-2013 (Decision 59/5), Table 7." Document 62/7 by Executive
Committee of the Multilateral Fund for the Implementation of the Montreal Protocol, Sixty-second Meeting, Montreal, 29
November - 3 December 2010. Available at: http://www.multilateralfund.Org/62/English%20Docmnent/l/6207.pdf
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U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
June 2013
emissions so long as those emissions are covered by and continue to generate emissions
reduction credits under a CDM project. If a facility does not have a CDM project because either
it is not eligible or the project has expired, then the obligations would apply and funding from the
MLF could be available.
5. Summary
The Montreal Protocol has been an unparalleled environmental success story. It is the only
international agreement to achieve universal ratification. It has completed an enormous task in
the phaseout of CFCs and halons—chemicals that were pervasive in multiple industries. It
established a schedule to phase out the remaining important ODS (namely, HCFCs) by 2040.
Under the Montreal Protocol, Article 5 and non-Article 5 countries together have not only set the
ozone layer on a path to recovery by mid-century but have reduced greenhouse gases by over 11
gigatons CC^eq per year, providing an approximate 10-year delay in the onset of the effects of
climate change.42
This legacy is now at risk. Although safe for the ozone layer, the continued emissions of HFCs—
primarily as alternatives to ODS but also from the continued production of HCFC-22—will have
an immediate and significant effect on the Earth's climate system. Without further controls, it is
predicted that HFC emissions could negate the entire climate benefits achieved under the
Montreal Protocol. HFCs are rapidly increasing in the atmosphere. HFC use is forecast to grow,
mostly due to increased demand for refrigeration and air conditioning, particularly in Article 5
countries. There is a clear connection between the Montreal Protocol's CFC and HCFC phaseout
and the increased use of HFCs. However, it is possible to maintain the climate benefits achieved
by the Montreal Protocol by using climate-friendly alternatives and addressing HFC
consumption.
Recognizing the concerns with continued HFC consumption and emissions, the actions taken to
date to address them, the need for continued HFC use in the near future for certain applications,
and the need for better alternatives, Canada, Mexico and the United States have proposed an
amendment to phase down HFC consumption and to reduce byproduct emissions of HFC-23, the
HFC with the highest GWP. The proposed Amendment would build on the success of the
Montreal Protocol, rely on the strength of its institutions, and realize climate benefits in both the
near and long-term. Table 10 displays the projected benefits from the Amendment.
42 Velders, G. J. M., Andersen, S. O., Daniel, J. S., Fahey, D. W., and McFarland, M.: The importance of the Montreal Protocol
in protecting climate, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 104, 4815-4819, 2007. Accessible at:
http: //www.pnas .org / content/104/12/4814. full .pdf+html
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U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
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Table 10: Estimated Benefits of the Amendment Proposal, at Various Intervals
Cumulative HFC Reductions (MMTCQ2eq)
Party
2016 to 2020
2016 to 2030
2016 to 2040
2016 to 2050
HFC Phasedown - Consumption Reductions
Non-Article 5 Parties
1,600
9,900
24,100
40,200
Article 5 Parties
0
4,900
19,400
43,200
World
1,600
14,800
43,500
83,400
Byproduct Controls - Emissions Reductions
Non-Article 5 Parties
300
900
2,000
3,800
Article 5 Parties
700
2,100
4,200
7,500
World
1,000
3,000
6,200
11,300
World Total
2,600
17,800
49,700
94,700
Taken together, the suite of known alternative chemicals, new technologies, and better process
and handling practices can significantly reduce HFC consumption and emissions in both the near
and long term, while simultaneously completing the HCFC phaseout. Since the Amendment was
first introduced, a number of actions by countries and multinational corporations have built
momentum to address HFC use and emissions. Although there is much work to do to fully
implement these alternatives, technologies and practices, the industries currently using HCFCs
and HFCs have proven through the ODS phaseout that they can move quickly to protect the
environment.
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