The
EPA Automotive
Trends Report	
Greenhouse Gas Emissions,
Fuel Economy, and
Technology since 1975
Executive Summary
United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
EPA-420-S-20-001 March 2020

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Executive Summary
This annual report is part of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) commitment
to provide the public with information about new light-duty vehicle greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions, fuel economy, technology data, and auto manufacturers' performance in meet-
ing the agency's GHG emissions standards.
EPA has collected data on every new light-duty vehicle model sold in the United States since
1975, either from testing performed by EPA at the National Vehicle and Fuel Emissions
Laboratory in Ann Arbor, Michigan, or directly from manufacturers using official EPA test
procedures. These data are collected to support several important national programs, in-
cluding EPA criteria pollutant and GHG standards, the U.S. Department of Transportation's
National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) Corporate Average Fuel Economy
(CAFE) standards, and vehicle Fuel Economy and Environment labels. This expansive data
set allows EPA to provide a uniquely comprehensive analysis of the automotive industry
over the last 40 plus years.
All data in this report for model years 1975 through 2018 are final and based on official
data submitted to EPA and NHTSA as part of the regulatory process. In some cases, this
report will show data for model year 2019, which are preliminary and based on data
provided to EPA by automakers prior to the model year. Preliminary data is not shown for
manufacturer compliance. The report does not examine future model years, and past per-
formance does not necessarily predict future industry trends.
The carbon dioxide (C02) emissions and fuel economy data in this report fall into one of
two categories. The first is compliance data, which is measured using laboratory tests
required by law for CAFE and adopted by EPA for GHG compliance. The second is estimated
real-world data, which is measured using additional laboratory tests to capture a wider
range of operating conditions (including hot/cold weather and higher acceleration) that an
average driver will encounter. This report will show estimated real-world data except for
the discussion specific to the GHG regulations around Figures ES-6 through ES-8 and in
Section 5.
The content in this report was previously published in two separate reports, the Light-Duty
Automotive Technology, Carbon Dioxide Emissions, and Fuel Economy Trends Report, and the
GHG Manufacturer Performance Report. These reports were combined, starting with the
2018 report, to provide a more comprehensive analysis.
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New vehicle estimated real-world CO2 emissions are
at a record low and fuel economy is at a record high
In model year 2018, the average estimated
real-world C02 emission rate for all new
vehicles fell by 4 grams per mile (g/mi) to
353 g/mi, the lowest level ever measured.
Fuel economy increased by 0.2 miles per
gallon to 25.1 mpg, achieving a record high.
Since 2004, C02 emissions have decreased
23%, or 108 g/mi, and fuel economy has
increased 30%, or 5.8 mpg. Over that time,
C02 emissions and fuel economy have im-
proved in twelve out of fourteen years and
have repeatedly achieved new records. The
trends in C02 emissions and fuel economy
since 1975 are shown in Figure ES-1.
Preliminary data suggest further improve-
ments in model year 2019. Average
estimated real-world C02 emissions are
projected to fall 6 g/mi to 346 g/mi and fuel
economy is projected to increase 0.4 mpg
to 25.5 mpg. Projected data are shown in
Figure ES-1 as a red dot because the values
are based on manufacturer projections
rather than final data.
Figure ES-1. Estimated Real-World C02
and Fuel Economy
o
£ 22.5-
0
25.1 MPG
MY 2018
17.5-
15.0-
12.5
700
600-
353 g/mi
MY 2018
500-
400-
1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Model Year
Manufacturers have made significant improvements in
fuel economy and CO2 emissions over the last 5 years
Over the last five years, eleven of the fourteen largest manufacturers selling vehicles in the
U.S. market improved both estimated real-world C02 emissions and fuel economy of their
new vehicle fleets. One manufacturer, Tesla, improved fuel economy (as measured in miles
per gallon of gasoline equivalent, or mpge) but not tailpipe C02 emissions, because their
all-electric fleet produces no tailpipe C02 emissions. Two of the fourteen manufacturers
increased C02 emissions and decreased fuel economy of their new vehicle fleets.
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Figure ES-2. Changes in Estimated Real-World Fuel Economy and C02for Large Manufacturers
Fuel Economy (MPG), 2013 - 2018
CO Emissions (g/mi), 2013 - 2018
Tesla ¦
Honda'
Subaru.
Mazda'
Hyundai
Kia'
Nissan ¦
BMW'
Toyota'
VW'
Mercedes'
GM'
Ford.
FCA'
All Manufacturers
45
90.7-
-~113.7
70
95
120









r-





27.8 -
28
27.2 ~
26.5 -~ 27.
-~ 28.7
6 ¦< 29.0
27.8
1














24.3


5.0
6*<
.5
~ 25.5
— 25.9



2
24
22.2	>22
22.0 —~23.0
22.2 ~ 22.4
0.9-~21.7














2









24.2
-~
25.1











50
100
150
200












310-4-320
307 ~ 311
0^ oor-
















OI5 OtL O
327-4-334








366



348
¦35!
~ 3
a



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>1 no





386 <—
397-4
4
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a no




4Uo
400
D9 <— 426












353


368













20
24
28
32
300
350
400
450
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The five-year span shown in Figure ES-2 covers the approximate length of a vehicle re-
design cycle. It is likely that most vehicles have undergone design changes in this period,
resulting in a more accurate depiction of recent manufacturer trends than focusing on a
single year. The trends shown in Figure ES-2 are due to a combination of vehicle design
changes and changes to the distribution of vehicles produced.
Many tables in this report show only manufacturers that produced more than 150,000
vehicles in the last model year. This year, Tesla crossed that threshold and is now shown
along with the thirteen large manufacturers in last year's edition of this report. Since Tesla
produces only electric vehicles, they had by far the lowest tailpipe C02 emissions, at 0 g/mi,
and highest fuel economy, at 113.7 mpge, of all large manufacturers in model year 2018.
Of the remaining manufacturers, Honda had the lowest C02 emissions and highest fuel
economy in model year 2018 and also achieved the largest 5-year improvements in C02
emissions and fuel economy. Between model years 2013 and 2018, Honda reduced C02
emissions by 31 g/mi and increased fuel economy by 2.8 mpg. Subaru and Mazda tied for
the third lowest C02 emissions and third highest fuel economy in model year 2018. BMW
had the second largest 5-year improvement in C02 emissions, reducing emissions by
27 g/mi, and Subaru had the third largest improvement, at 26 g/mi. BMW also increased
fuel economy by 1.7 mpg, while Subaru increased by 2.2 mpg.
Two manufacturers increased C02 emissions and reduced average fuel economy over the
five-year span. Volkswagen had the largest increase in C02 emissions, at 11 g/mi, and the
largest decrease in fuel economy, at 1.3 mpg, due mostly to a large shift towards SUVs. FCA
had the highest new vehicle average C02 emissions and lowest fuel economy of the large
manufacturers in model year 2018, followed by Ford and GM.
Sport utility vehicles continue to gain market share,
with all vehicle types achieving record low CO2
emissions and record high fuel economy
In this report, vehicles are disaggregated into five vehicle types: sedan/wagon, car SUV,
truck SUV, pickup truck, and minivan/van. Car SUVs are generally smaller 2WD SUVs while
truck SUVs are larger or 4WD vehicles. The distinction between car and truck SUVs is based
on regulatory definitions and is important because cars and trucks are subject to different
GHG and fuel economy standards. Sedan/wagons and car SUVs are subject to the car
regulatory standards while truck SUVs, pickups, and minivans/vans are subject to the truck
standards. Note that media reports generally consider all SUVs as trucks, which is different
from the regulatory distinctions used in this report.
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Figure ES-3. Production Share and Fuel Economy by Vehicle Type
100%-
Sedan/
Wagon
75%
Sedan/Wagon
Car SUV
Truck
SUV
o 50%-
Truck SUV
Minivan/
Van
25%
Minivan/Van
Pickup
Pickup
1975
1985
1995
Model Year
2005
2015
1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Model Year
The overall market continues to move towards both car SUVs and truck SUVs. Combined,
car and truck SUVs captured a record high 46% market share in model year 2018. Truck
SUVs improved fuel economy by 0.8 mpg and C02 emissions by 14 g/mile in model year
2018, while car SUVs improved fuel economy by 1.2 mpg and C02 emissions by 15 g/mile.
Sedan/wagons fell to 37% of the market, or less than half of the market share they held in
model year 1975, even as their fuel economy increased by 0.6 mpg.
All five vehicle types are at record low C02 emissions and record high fuel economy and
have steadily improved in recent years. However, the market shift towards SUVs and away
from sedan/wagons has offset some of the fleetwide benefits that otherwise would have
been achieved from the increased fuel economy within each vehicle type.
Average new vehicle fuel economy and horsepower
continue to increase, while weight remains constant
Vehicle weight and horsepower are two fundamental vehicle attributes that can influence
a vehicle's C02 emissions and fuel economy. For vehicles with internal combustion engines,
increased weight or horsepower generally results in higher C02 emissions and lower fuel
economy. Weight is also an important metric for electric vehicles, as increased vehicle
weight will generally result in lower fuel economy (measured in miles per gallon of gasoline
equivalent). However, electric vehicles will produce zero tailpipe emissions regardless of
weight or horsepower.
in	ES6

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Over time, automotive technology innovation has been applied to vehicle design with dif-
fering emphasis between vehicle weight, power, C02 emissions and fuel economy (Figure
ES-4). In the two decades before model year 2004, technology innovation was generally
used to increase vehicle power, and weight increased due to changing vehicle design,
increased vehicle size, and increased content. During this period, average new vehicle fuel
economy steadily decreased and C02 emissions correspondingly increased. However, since
model year 2004 technology has been used to increase fuel economy (up 30%) and power
(up 14%), while maintaining vehicle weight and reducing C02 emissions (down 23%). Weight
has generally been constant
Figure ES-4. Estimated Real-World Fuel Economy,
Horsepower, and Weight Since Model Year 1975
since 2004, but the slight
increase in model year 2018
did result in the highest
average new vehicle weight
on record.
One additional vehicle met-
ric not shown in Figure ES-4
is vehicle footprint, or the
area enclosed by the four
tires. Footprint is impor-
tant because it is the basis
for determining regulatory
standards under the GHG
and CAFE regulations. Since
EPA began tracking footprint
in model year 2008, aver-
age footprint has increased
about 3%.
100%-
80%-
LO
CD
CD
O
c
O)
CD
0)
c
03
-C
O
60%-
40%-
20%-
0%-
-20% -
-40% -
























Real-World Fuel Economy






















Horsepower




















Weight


























1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Model Year
Manufacturers continue to adopt a wide array of
advanced technologies
Technological innovation in the automobile industry has led to a wide array of technology
available to manufacturers to achieve C02 emissions, fuel economy, and performance
goals. Figure ES-5 illustrates projected manufacturer-specific technology adoption, with
larger circles representing higher adoption rates, for model year 2019. The figure shows
preliminary model year 2019 technology projections to provide insight on a quickly chang-
ing industry, even though there is some uncertainty in the preliminary data.
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Engine technologies such as turbocharged engines (Turbo) and gasoline direct injection
(GDI) allow for more efficient engine design and operation. Cylinder deactivation (CD) allows
for use of only a portion of the engine when less power is needed, while stop/start systems
can turn off the engine entirely at idle to save fuel. Hybrid vehicles use a larger battery to
recapture braking energy and provide power when necessary, allowing for a smaller, more
efficiently-operated engine. Transmissions that have more gear ratios, or speeds, allow
the engine to more frequently operate near peak efficiency. Two categories of advanced
transmissions are shown in Figure ES-5: transmission with seven or more discrete speeds
(7+ Gears), and continuously variable transmissions (CVTs).
The technologies in Figure ES-5 are all being adopted by manufacturers to reduce C02
emissions and increase fuel economy, in some cases quite rapidly. For example, GDI was
used in fewer than 3% of vehicles as recently as model year 2008 but is projected to be in
more than 50% of vehicles in model year 2019. Electric vehicles (EVs), plug-in hybrid vehicles
(PHEVs), and fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) are a small but growing percentage of new vehicles.
Figure ES-5. Technology Share for Large Manufacturers, Model Year 2019
Tesla
Honda
Subaru
Mazda
Hyundai
Kia
Nissan
BMW
T oyota
VW
Mercedes
GM
Ford
FCA
All Manufacturers
100%
54% 83% 50% 40% 21% 5% 4% 1%
14% 70% 93%	28%	1%
27%
15%
10%
7%
98%
95%
82%
86%
39%
98%
54%
27%
13% 22%
80% 10%
84%
0%
3%
6%
1%
85%
4%
8%
0%
2%
2%
3%
4%
3%	1%	26%	51%	12%	9%	0%
86%	99%	89%	0%	82%	3%	1 %
98%	100%	100%	4%	91%	3%	2%
40%	90%	4%	49%	47%	62%	0%	2%
65%	46%	5%	54%	75%	5%	0%
14%	13%	1%	84%	19%	52%	16%	1%
34% 54% 24% 48% 13% 36%
6%
3%
	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	
Turbo GDI CVT 7+Gears CD StopStart Hybrid PHEV/
EV/FCV
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All fourteen large manufacturers achieved compliance
with the GHG standards through the 2018 model year
EPA's GHG program is an averaging, banking, and trading (ABT) program. An ABT program
means that the standards may be met on a fleet average basis, manufacturers may earn
and bank credits to use later, and manufacturers may trade credits with other manufac-
turers. This provides manufacturers flexibility in meeting the standards while accounting
for vehicle design cycles, introduction rates of new technologies and emission improve-
ments, and evolving consumer preferences.
Manufacturers with average
fleet emissions lower than
the emissions standard
generate credits by over
complying with the stan-
dards. Because credits may
not be carried forward unless
deficits from all prior model
years have been resolved,
a positive credit balance
means compliance with the
current and all previous
model years of the program.
Any manufacturer with a
deficit at the end of the
model year has up to three
years to offset the deficit
with credits generated by
future improvements beyond
the standards or credits
purchased from another
manufacturer.
All the large manufacturers (with production of more than 150,000 in model year 2018)
ended the 2018 model year with a positive credit balance and are thus in compliance with
model year 2018 and all previous years of the GHG program. The accumulated credits
shown in Figure ES-6 will be carried forward for use in future model years. Total credits are
shown in teragrams (one billion kilograms), which accounts for manufacturer performance
compared to their standards, expected vehicle lifetime miles driven, and the number of
vehicles produced by each manufacturer, for all years of the GHG program.
Figure ES-6. GHG Credit Balance for Large
Manufacturers, After 2018 Model Year
Toyota -
Honda ¦
FCA ¦
Nissan ¦
Subaru -
GM ¦
Hyundai ¦
Ford ¦
Tesla
Mazda ¦
BMW-
Kia ¦
VW-
Mercedes ¦
Manufacturers with a positive
credit balance have complied
through model year 2018
20	40
GHG Credits (Tg ofCO,)
60
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Manufacturers used different combinations of
technology improvements and banked credits to
achieve compliance in 2018
Overall, the industry was within 1 gram/mile of complying with the standards without using
banked credits. Individual manufacturers however, used different strategies to maintain
compliance in model year 2018. Three large manufacturers achieved compliance based
on the emission performance of their vehicles, without utilizing additional banked credits.
Most other large manufacturers used banked or purchased credits, along with technology
improvements, to demonstrate compliance in model year 2018.
Figure ES-7 illustrates the performance of individual large manufacturers in model year
2018 compared to their overall standard, in terms of an average vehicle grams per
mile emission rate. This "snapshot" provides insight into how the large manufacturers
performed against the standards in model year 2018, but it does not account for banked
credits or credit transactions between companies. Thus, Figure ES-7 does not reflect that
each of these manufacturers ultimately complied with the model year 2018 standards.
Figure ES-7. Performance and Standards by Manufacturer, 2018 Model Year
¦	Standard
¦	Performance
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The regulations include an "incentive multiplier" for certain technologies for the 2017-2021
model years. This multiplier allowed each 2018 model year electric vehicle to be counted as
two. The impact of the incentive is particularly evident forTesIa because they produce only
electric vehicles with 0 g/mi tailpipe emissions. Tesla's standard was 228 g/mi, so on aver-
age each Tesla vehicle creates 228 g/mi of credits (plus 16 g/mi of air conditioning and off-
cycle credits) before including the multiplier. The incentive multiplier doubles those credits,
resulting in an effective performance value of-244 grams/mile, as shown in Figure ES-7.
The manufacturers with emissions above their standards (i.e., generating a 2018 model
year deficit) used banked or purchased credits to achieve compliance in model year 2018.
All these manufacturers had credits available from previous years, and/or they were able to
purchase credits to ensure their credit balance remained positive after model year 2018.
The industry generated almost as many credits as it
used in 2018, maintaining a large bank of credits for
future model years
The industry emerged from model year 2018 with a bank of more than 250 teragrams
(Tg) of GHG credits, as seen in Figure ES-8. Based on their compliance strategy, many
manufacturers used credits in model year 2018, but far fewer credits than in the previous
two model years. As a result, to maintain compliance the industry depleted their collective
credit bank by about 4 Tg, or less than 2% of the total available credit balance. In addition
to the balance of the industry-wide bank, the expiration date and distribution of credits are
also important factors. Credits earned in model year 2017 or beyond have a five-year life,
while all prior credits (78% of the current bank) will expire at the end of model year 2021.
At the present time, an active credit market is enabling manufacturers to purchase credits
to demonstrate compliance, although the availability of current or future credits is
inherently uncertain.
The industry was able to accrue credits before the standards took effect in model year
2012 for early deployment of efficient vehicles and technology (the "early credit" program).
The industry generated additional credits the first four years of the program, as the industry
GHG performance was below the standards. In the last three years, the industry GHG
performance has been above the standards, resulting in withdrawals from the bank of
credits to maintain compliance.
In model year 2018, the industry improved overall compliance GHG performance by 10 g/mi.
While this was not enough to meet the standard, the gap between the standard and GHG
performance narrowed to 1 g/mi from 5 g/mi. Improving vehicle GHG emissions, as well as
the electric vehicle incentive multiplier, led to this industry-wide improvement.
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Figure ES-8. Industry Performance and Standards, Credit Generation and Use
• Standard
I Performance
| Credits Earned
Credits Used
¦ Total
Early Credits 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Carry to
(2009-2011)	2019
Model Year
The automobile industry continues to innovate,
improve, and meet the GHG standards
The analysis here is a snapshot of the data collected by EPA in support of several important
regulatory programs and is presented with the intent of providing as much transparency
to the public as possible. The data show the change and innovation in the industry since
model year 1975, and the manufacturers' performance under EPA's GHG standards.
To download the full report, or to explore the data using EPA's new interactive data tools,
visit the report webpage at www.epa.gov/automotive-trends.
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NOTICE: This technical report does not necessarily represent final EPA decisions, positions, or approval
or validation of compliance data reported to EPA by manufacturers. It is intended to present technical
analysis of issues using data that are currently available and that may be subject to change. The purpose
of the release of such reports is to facilitate the exchange of technical information and to inform the public
of technical developments.
These data reflect the most current available data. Historic data have been adjusted, when appropriate, to
reflect the result of compliance investigations by EPA or any other corrections necessary to maintain data
integrity. This edition of the report supersedes all previous versions.
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