Peer Review of BenMAP Software
Peer Review Report
March 2004
Prepared for
Ron Evans
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
OAQPS, AQSSD, ISEG
(C339-01)
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
Prepared by
George Van Houtven
RTI International
Health, Social, and Economics Research
Research Triangle Park, NC 27709
With Reviews By
Alan Krupnick, Resources for the Future
Nino Kunzli, University of Southern California
George Christakos, University of North Carolina
EPA Contract Number 68-D-99-024
RTI Project Number 07647.005.430
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Section 1. Introduction
This report compiles the results of an objective peer review of the environmental Benefits Mapping and
Analysis Program (BenMAP), which is the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) new health
impact and benefits assessment software. RTI arranged for reviews by three leading experts, each of
whom have distinct and particularly relevant experience for evaluating the scientific accuracy, credibility,
objectivity, and technical appropriateness of BenMAP. The experts are:
Dr. Alan Krupnick (Resources for the Future). Dr. Krupnick is an environmental economist and
one of the leading experts in the field of benefits assessment and nonmarket valuation for
environmental policy. Through his extensive research in the field and his participation in EPA's
Science Advisory Board (SAB) Subcommittee for Review of the 812 Cost-Benefit Study,
USEPA (1998-99), he is particularly knowledgeable about the context and challenges related to
developing this type of national-scale benefits assessment model.
Dr. Nino Kunzli (University of Southern California). Dr. Kiinzli is an environmental
epidemiologist with an emphasis on air pollution epidemiology. As a member of both the
National Research Council's Committee on Estimating the Public Health Benefits of Proposed
Air Pollution Regulations and EPA's SAB Advisory Council on Clean Air Compliance Analysis,
he has a particularly strong understanding of how the results from existing epidemiological
studies can best be applied in a national-scale model like BenMAP.
Dr. George Christakos (University of North Carolina). Dr Christakos is an environmental
scientist and engineer with a broad multidisciplinary background in environmental modeling. He
offers particular expertise in the application of geospatial statistics and uncertainty analysis in
integrated environmental models.
Additional information about each of the reviewers' backgrounds and qualifications is provided in
Appendix B.
The reviewers were provided with an executable version of the model, the BenMAP User's Manual, and a
general description of the model's main objectives. With these objectives in mind, they were asked to
review the model software and documentation and to provide us with their assessment of the model.
They were also provided with a list of both general and specific questions to serve as a guide in preparing
their review. They were asked to address as many of the questions as possible, but to focus primarily on
areas that correspond best with their technical expertise and interests. The specific letter describing their
charge and including the list of questions is provided in Appendix B.
The review comments received from the reviewers are included (with only minor editing) in the following
three sections.
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Section 2. Review by Alan J. Krupnick, Senior Fellow, Resources for the
Future
I have organized this review by simply filling in responses to the questions asked of me by RTI. Overall,
this effort is astonishing in its comprehensiveness and flexibility. That said, I do have a number of
concerns about it and suggestions for making it better, detailed below.
1. General:
a) Does BenMAP provide a useful and sensible structure for addressing policy analysis needs?
BENMAP provides many of the key pieces for addressing the benefits side of policy analysis,
although it is limited to health effects and several pollutants, can only analyze one pollutant at a time
and does not provide any help in linking concentrations changes back to emissions. Although these
are limitations, no other available model overcomes them.
b) Does it provide adequate flexibility to users for addressing important policy questions?
Although BenMAP provides enormous flexibility in the construction and use of C-R functions and
the treatment of monitored and modeled air quality data, this flexibility in the model may not be
utilized by most users, who may not have the sophistication or the need for utilizing the flexibility
provided. On the other hand, it provides limited flexibility for doing what I think many users will
want - pulling C-R and valuation functions in and out of the model - and easily seeing the effect this
has on total benefits. It is not as if the model cannot perform this task. It is just that one needs to take
a significant number of steps to get to this point. And another area I think users will care about -
simply seeing how air quality concentrations change in response to various rollback or standard
meeting scenarios - doesn't appear to be available with this model, even though it contains the air
quality data. (In other words, given the time I had to fool around with the model, I couldn't get this
information out of it.)
My suggestion is that a new sub-component of the air quality/population part of the model be created
which collapses this information into tables that do not need to be recomputed (which takes several
minutes at least). Then users, if they wish, can focus on the effect of using alternative C-R functions
and valuation functions and on the effects of simple air quality change scenarios.
c) Are the different components of the model appropriately defined and linked to one
another?
Most components of the model are appropriately defined and linked. An exception is the mapping
functions, which I find problematic (see below).
2. Input Databases: Keeping in mind that some of the input databases are fixed in the model and some
can be adapted or supplemented...
a) Are the fixed input databases appropriately selected and defined using
Census and projected demographic data?
Modeled air quality data?
Baseline incidence data?
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I don't see why these components (particularly the population and baseline risk data) need to be hard-
wired. It seems like it would be simple to give users the option here. This would increase the research
use for the model and its applicability to use in other countries.
b) Are the adaptable input databases appropriately selected and defined for
Monitored air quality data?
Concentration-response functions?
Valuation functions?
You have completely "punted" on the valuation component, particularly the VSL. This model is
supposed to be both a policy analysis and research tool and should therefore reflect the wide ranging
literature on the VSL and VSLY, as well as producing life year change estimates. As it is now, the model
appears to embody the traditional EPA agenda, which I think is not very helpful to many users. Also, I
couldn't find numbers from Mrozek and Taylor in Exhibit H-l. Perhaps "based loosely" is supposed to
provide cover for this omission, but I would urge more directness here.
On the C-R functions, the included set seems reasonably comprehensive, although it is unclear from the
table to the left (when one uses the DATA menu) which functions are for ozone and which are for PM or
something else. And there ought to be a way for all functions on the left panel to be displayed at the
touch of a button, rather than having to click on everything. My overriding philosophy about such models
is to make the manual as little needed as possible. I think you have a different philosophy.
Also, it might be more enlightening if only unique functions were shown. Now, you have artificial age
breakdowns for many of the functions. This adds clutter to the list and gives the impression there are
more independent functions than there really are.
It would help if the C-R functions viewable through the Data menu were grouped by pollutant. At present
I couldn't easily figure out the list of PM2.5 and ozone functions.
One or more sulfate functions are listed. Can these be used by the model in actual calculations? If so,
how?
Also, I am a bit unclear about the criteria for including functions and results. For instance, Ito and
Thurston (1996) is included for ozone ST mortality and the manual says that they considered PM along
with ozone. But the manual does not list Ito and Thurston's results under the PM C-R functions. Further
deepening the mystery, BenMAP notes that Ito and Thurston estimated a model for ozone with PM, but
also doesn't list any of the PM results. Is this just an oversight? I found the same problem for Kinney et
al and Samet et al. While the answer may be that you have decided to only include PM2.5 results and the
functions listed above are for PM10 or TSP, I think this is a bad idea and that all PM results should be
included. In any comparison of ozone and PM importance, one should have results from studies that
looked at the multiple pollutants, not limited to PM2.5 on the particle side. Also, more generally, why is
there only one C-R function in the PM C-R ST mortality appendix listing multiple pollutants?
I would like more explanation about how incidence and prevalence (Exhibit 9-1) are used in the
functions.
I got error messages when I tried to click on most of the variables listed under Available County
Variables. I tried to get a look at the raw data but couldn't figure out how to do it.
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3. Exposure Estimation Algorithms: To spatially and temporally align population, air quality, and
incidence data as inputs to the concentration-response functions, BenMAP uses several estimation and
interpolation algorithms.
a) Are these methods scientifically sound and appropriate for
interpolating and projecting population estimates for non-Census years?
estimating population subgroups (e.g., by age, gender, ethnicity, etc.)?
estimating the spatial distribution of populations and linking them to air quality grids?
spatial and temporal interpolation of pollutant monitoring data?
It is very difficult to comment on these issues because the model is not designed to report out monitor,
population and exposure information.
b) Does BenMAP offer an appropriate menu of interpolation options for estimating
exposures?
I have no expertise here.
c) Do these methods provide appropriate inputs for the class of concentration-response
functions allowable in the model?
I have no expertise here.
4. Aggregation and Pooling Methods: BenMAP offers alternative approaches for spatially
aggregating health effects estimates and for pooling separate estimates of health effects for valuation.
a) Does BenMAP offer an appropriate menu of aggregation and pooling options?
I am not clear how the values are aggregated in a way that avoids double-counting. The section on
interdependent/dependent/addition/subtraction may be where these operations are intended, but there
should be a default endpoint aggregation routine with the list of default endpoints. Then the user can start
here and be able to move functions in and out and also edit the aggregation equation. I would also add an
example to explain to readers what these "summing distribution" functions (pg. 1-9 and also earlier in the
body of the text) really do.
b) Do these methods provide appropriate inputs for the class of valuation functions allowable
in the model?
Yes.
5. Uncertainty Analysis Methods: BenMap offers options for including and evaluating how
uncertainty regarding (1) C-R relationships and (2) valuation functions affect model outputs?
a) Does BenMAP allow the user to adequately and appropriately specify uncertainty for these
two areas?
Yes.
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b) Are the uncertainty routines properly specified and incorporated in the model?
Yes.
c) Without greatly complicating the structure of the model, are there additional areas or types
of uncertainty that could or should be incorporated in BenMAP?
My first issue with the handling of uncertainty in BenMAP concerns aggregation. I believe the ultimate
purpose of the uncertainty analysis is to enable computation of a probability distribution on the aggregate
benefits. This is evidently accomplished through the Add Sums button. This fact took me a long time to
figure out and should be much more apparent in the write-up and on the software screens. It would help
if ADD SUMS were not an option, but was a default. How this would be done, I don't know. Maybe the
first row would automatically be checked so the user can see that the total line is filled in.
As for other areas of uncertainty to incorporate, it would not be difficult to add population uncertainty to
the model, as the Census publishes various population scenarios. Baseline mortality and other baseline
health rates are probably estimated with uncertainty and, if so, could be easily added. Uncertainties in air
quality would be a very important addition to the model, but the literature is probably not rich enough to
support such a step.
6. Report and Mapping Results: BenMAP offers several options for reporting and mapping air
quality, population, incidence, and valuation data and results.
a) Do these options provide an adequate and appropriate framework for displaying results?
As noted above, I had lots of trouble figuring out how to get data reports for air quality and population,
although the maps would give monitor location and readings.
b) Are the results displays appropriately specified and configured to address the intended uses
and analytical needs of BenMAP (as defined above and in the model documentation)?
The mapping function is a cool idea but it is badly executed in some respects. The most glaring
Problem is the color scheme. By shading/blending colors between two different primary colors at the
ends of the range of the variable being displayed, the observer cannot discern differences in the map. I
think it is pretty useless. I would argue that discreet colors be assigned to different binned values of the
variable being mapped, or at least that such an option be available.
7. User Interface and User Guide: BenMAP is a menu driven interactive software tool with multiple
options and features, as described above.
a) Is the user interface appropriately organized, easy to use, and easy to follow? Through the
user interface, are the options and features well described and easy to navigate?
I found the set up intimidating and not that helpful.
b) Is the user guide appropriately organized, easy to use, and easy to follow?
I took two hours to carefully go through the chapter 3 tutorial, which was well-written and clear and led
me through flawlessly. I ran into lots of trouble when I tried to stray from the tutorial. I had most
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problems with the mapping guidance, which was too brief and not helpful. I had trouble getting the
various buttons to work and am not sure what some of them really are for.
c) Does the user guide appropriately complement and correspond with the user interface?
The User Guide is essential for learning to use the model, unlike friendlier software where the guide is
mostly a backup. This should be made clear to people.
d) Does the user guide provide the necessary explanation and background for installing and
running the model, selecting options, and displaying results?
See above.
e) Does the user guide adequately explain the model's objectives and the model's underlying
structure, assumptions, data, methods, and routines?
I still don't know who the audience is for this product. Thinking more about that and modifying the
manual to meet the needs of those groups individually might help.
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Section 3. Review by Nino Kiinzli, Associate Professor at Keck School of
Medicine, University of Southern California
It was a pleasant experience to test this BenMap version. The product is very ambitious and both
technically and scientifically on a very high standard. There is obviously superb expertise and a strong
professional commitment behind this impressive product.
Below are my comments, mostly related to the specified questions (as received from RTI), sometimes
integrated at the end of several questions.
1. General:
a) Does BenMAP provide a useful and sensible structure for addressing policy analysis needs?
The overall structure is useful. The program is, however, a very ambitious collection of complex data and
scientific issues, ultimately packed in a 'black box'. This raises the question about the needs and skills of
users (target audience) of BenMap. The choices appear to be endless, thus, the determination of some
default functions (or choices) might be needed (among less specialized users). E.g., if risk assessors in
county health departments will use BenMap: given the many choices, it might be useful to have some
clear defaults to make results across counties comparable.
b) Does it provide adequate flexibility to users for addressing important policy questions?
There is ample flexibility. As mentioned above, there might be too much. In making choices along the
process of combining exposure models and C-R-functions, the user remains in the dark about how
decisions may affect the results.
c) Are the different components of the model appropriately defined and linked to one another?
Yes, the components are. Related to the above concerns, within the components it is less easy to keep the
overview.
2. Input Databases: Keeping in mind that some of the input databases are fixed in the model and some
can be adapted or supplemented...
a) Are the fixed input databases appropriately selected and defined using
Census and projected demographic data?
Modeled air quality data?
Baseline incidence data?
b) Are the adaptable input databases appropriately selected and defined for
Monitored air quality data?
Concentration-response functions?
Valuation functions?
Given that the whole process is a 'moving target', given the never ending flux in research activities, I
wonder what strategy BenMap will implement to update both the fixed input databases as well as the
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available defaults for the adaptable input databases. E.g., as of 2004, the software still projects
demographic data from 2000. It might be useful to determine a concept of updating BenMap.
The Manual mentions the selection process in choosing studies for the C-R-functions. These choices are
usually not clear-cut but a continuum, and I wonder how new studies will be fed in, and how/when/why
studies that are currently used will be dropped. E.g., the study year was one criterion; nevertheless, a very
old asthma study still plays a dominant role (1980). This choice appears somewhat contradicting the
selection criterion. Do we really need this study, although air quality, populations, and baseline incidence
of asthma (and treatment) changed substantially over the last 25 years?
As a general rule, the most valid results originate from models where the exposure period, pollutant,
exposure assignment methods, population choice and aggregation, outcome definition, and outcome
measurement procedures in the original epi studies are as close or similar (in time and methods) as
possible to those used in the benefit model. It is currently not easy to understand the 'validity score' of all
the input options.
3. Exposure Estimation Algorithms: To spatially and temporally align population, air quality, and
incidence data as inputs to the concentration-response functions, BenMAP uses several estimation and
interpolation algorithms.
a) Are these methods scientifically sound and appropriate for
interpolating and projecting population estimates for non-Census years? YES
estimating population subgroups (e.g., by age, gender, ethnicity, etc. )? YES - see below
estimating the spatial distribution of populations and linking them to air quality grids?
YES - see below
spatial and temporal interpolation of pollutant monitoring data?
The proposed methods are, in it self, appropriate. There is not enough discussion/caveats given for the
user to emphasize the discrepancies between the many options offered by BenMAp to specify populations
and exposure on very small scales (grids; subgroups), and the often much cruder level in the studies that
provide the C-R-functions (e.g., in Appendix B, Population Data issues and Appendix C Exposure).
It is not discussed that the uncertainty in the final results also depends on the choices of grid size and/or
group definition (e.g., age range) and the level of aggregation. The users should be aware that the most
valid assessment can be derived from a model that uses population definitions and exposure assignments
on exactly the same level of specification and aggregation as done in the underlying epidemiological
studies. This is often not possible, but an important concept to communicate to not misguide the user.
Although appealing to go to the smallest possible units of aggregation, this is not necessarily better or
more appropriate given that the C-R-function may not be known at this level of specification. BenMap
should deal with this issue in some way and educate the user. The problem will become more apparent as
soon as C-R-functions get published using different scales of aggregation, such as the 'crude' approach
taken in the Pope et al. ACS studies which is soon complemented by a Jerrett et al. model using exposure
information on a much smaller geographic scale, derived from PM2.5 surfaces of a Western metropolitan
area. Such studies will give the empirical evidence for an issue that is obvious from a theoretical
perspective but difficult to quantify without data: namely that C-R-functions depend on the level of
geographic aggregation in the exposure domain and the population definition. So far, most
epidemiological studies assume that all people living in a rather large area - larger than some grid cells -
experience the same exposure; or effects are reported for a group of mixed ages.
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b) Does BenMAP offer an appropriate menu of interpolation options for estimating exposures?
c) Do these methods provide appropriate inputs for the class of concentration-response functions
allowable in the model?
I repeat my concerns mentioned above. The models may provide much better estimates of true exposure;
but epi studies might have used other models to derive the C-R-function. Thus, the C-R-function for
otherwise determined (more sophisticated, better) exposures is in essence unknown (in a strict sense).
4. Aggregation and Pooling Methods: BenMAP offers alternative approaches for spatially
aggregating health effects estimates and for pooling separate estimates of health effects for valuation.
a) Does BenMAP offer an appropriate menu of aggregation and pooling options?
Yes; but some guidance for a "default" would be helpful.
The pooling across the many studies offered for some outcomes makes it a challenge (or requires in-depth
knowledge) to make adequate choices. This is particularly the case in such diverse outcomes as the
asthma attack domain. Different studies determine asthma attacks or exacerbations or symptoms in very
different ways, leading to rather different baseline incidences (and probably also different C-R-functions).
Accordingly, the incidence rates vary substantially for the various input studies. It is not clear which of
all these studies might be pooled or better not.
The D-15 comments on single pollutant versus multipollutant: the arguments are debatable, thus the
choice of the multipollutant results should be made with some caution. Not sure that a single pollutant
overestimates by default. One could argue the other way round and trash the multipollutant models, even
- or particularly - under a PM policy perspective. E.g., assuming high collinearity between two
pollutants (from same sources), the single PM model is the much more relevant whereas the two-pollutant
model would adjust for a major part of the exposure of interest and potentially create meaningless
estimates. I see no problem for PM and/versus 03, but would not generalize or too enthusiastically
promote the multipollutant choice beyond these two.
Section D-16 ff is very much written from a time-series perspective. If the user wants to generalize to
other designs, things get somewhat less straightforward.
b) Do these methods provide appropriate inputs for the class of valuation functions allowable in the
model?
5. Uncertainty Analysis Methods: BenMap offers options for including and evaluating how
uncertainty regarding (I) C-R relationships and (2) valuation functions affect model outputs?
a) Does BenMAP allow the user to adequately and appropriately specify uncertainty for these two
areas?
To specify, yes. Several of my comments mentioned above refer, however, to uncertainties and I think
that for most users the current Manual may give an insufficient or somewhat hidden perspective on
uncertainties.
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Uncertainty is currently mostly an Appendix. It might get a more prominent position.
b) Are the uncertainty routines properly specified and incorporated in the model?
See above.
c) Without greatly complicating the structure of the model, are there additional areas or types of
uncertainty that could or should be incorporated in BenMAP?
See above. Some guidance about what to pool and what not, or sources of not quantified uncertainties, or
defaults of 'least uncertainty' would be helpful.
6. Report and Mapping Results: BenMAP offers several options for reporting and mapping air
quality, population, incidence, and valuation data and results.
a) Do these options provide an adequate and appropriate framework for displaying results?
b) Are the results displays appropriately specified and configured to address the intended uses and
analytical needs of BenMAP (as defined above and in the model documentation)?
I thought the mapping (on screen) is very nice and easy to use. I could not figure out how
to see the county names when clicking in the map nor is this shown in the output tables.
The meaning of the results (such as the annual increase in cases) is so important that I
recommend making this more obvious on the screen (e.g., while clicking into the grid
map to see results). This key information is currently only stated in the Manual on page
3-21.
The default labels ResultX, POP X etc.: not very user friendly outputs.
7. User Interface and User Guide: BenMAP is a menu driven interactive software tool with multiple
options and features, as described above.
a) Is the user interface appropriately organized, easy to use, and easy to follow ? Through the user
interface, are the options and features well described and easy to navigate?
In general, it is easy to use or easy to learn within rather short time. The Manual is,
however, a crucial source in the process of use. Some key aspects of that guidance might
be integrated directly on screen. E.g., the gray boxes in the Manual could be important
"pop-ups".
Some steps do not explicitly offer a 'back' function button, other windows do. It
happened to me that I chose CANCEL instead of closing a window when I was not sure
how to go back (e.g., in Step 3 of example, p. 3-3). This cancelled all the previous steps,
thus I had to start all over.
In case where tables get much bigger than the screen, choosing functions within the table
(e.g., pooling method) moves the table to the start position (top), thus one has to scroll
down again to search for the next line. This is inconvenient.
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Step 6: Dragging several groups into the right screen (Select Pooling Methods) seems
not to be possible yet. It has to be done one by one. Would be nice to drag many lines at
once.
Step 6 B) 3-9: very repetitive action to chose valuation methods over dozens of lines.
Elements in Preview (display option): not so clear what this really is (e.g., p. 3-15).
b) Is the user guide appropriately organized, easy to use, and easy to follow?
I found it well done. Issues are complex and cross various chapters, thus some Index will certainly be
welcomed by users.
c) Does the user guide appropriately complement and correspond with the user interface?
Yes.
d) Does the user guide provide the necessary explanation and background for installing and
running the model, selecting options, and displaying results?
Yes. The front-up example is a good idea. There could be some more references to the in-depth chapter
while going through the example (as it raises many questions some might like to read more about
directly). E.g., Step 2 could refer to the chapter where Grid Creation Model is explained; similarly Step 3
etc.
e) Does the user guide adequately explain the model's objectives and the model's underlying
structure, assumptions, data, methods, and routines?
In general, yes. My main comments above, however, did not get much room in the manual and
may need some paragraphs.
The default functions could be communicated, with arguments for their choice, advantages, or
disadvantages. It is currently difficult to understand what the defaults or best choices are and
why. A table or flow chart with a few defaults might help.
It might be useful to provide a few examples (e.g., one table for one single outcome) showing the
results for various choices in the input functions (e.g., all the exposure model choices). It could
give some idea about which choices make a big difference and which are just a question of style,
preferences or availability of data.
5-1 summarizes the choices. A flow chart (similar to Exh 01 , p ii) might be helpful to see the
tree of choices and where to save what aspects of the configuration.
5-1 gray box: per person per year. Other sections provide numbers per 100 persons. Might be
confusing and become a source of errors.
5-3 Threshold section: it might helpful to explain what happens in the calculation if one uses a
non-0 threshold. It ignores all the effects that one can assign for exposure between 0 and the
threshold. Given that almost everybody is exposed to these low levels, it can have a very
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substantial effect on the estimates (Kiinzli N, Eur Respir J 2002; 20:198-209), unless they cancel
out for difference measures.
5-4: May clarify: is there any single value in the Latin Hypercube Points results exactly identical
to what we get with the Point Mode? It reads as if this were true; I doubt it is.
5-7 last paragraph could start with: As shown in the next figure.... (reads as if it relates to
previous figure - but it does not apply there at all).
8-18: how can I export a shapefile?
E-9: E.7.1 specify whether this is the attack rate per year per 100 people with asthma or per 100
people in the population.
F1.1. page F-3 and F-6: Pope et al is not necessarily the better study, and the advantages provided
could be seen also as disadvantages. It is certainly the largest and best to generalize across U.S.
"Historical air quality trends discussed above": where? Read paragraph again.
It was not clear to me what the rational was to order all these F1 .X chapters the way they are. By
year? Relevance? Size?
It is, in general, a very long chapter, some what repetitive and not easy to keep track (structure).
Some subheadings might help to organize this better?
Exhibit F-3 p F-19: add prevalence and incidence, respectively as this is very important (and well
discussed in the chapter).
A few typos/edits such as:
3-7: first line
5-11 Last question
6-11 If you pool... First bullet
B-6, first sentence "To estimate
D-l, first sentence
D-22, last para, first sentence.
E-6 top, line 4 (per)
A few other minor points:
Baseline and Control could be explained in the Common Terms section.
I was not too happy with the choice of the Y0 label for the baseline, thus to see the Y0 in the
numerator of the RR. The 0 is very often used as the 'non exposed' or 'less exposed', thus,
appears in the denominator.
E7.9, page E-l 1 Exh. E-8: it is not clear how the last line was used. Male +27 versus the above
total population estimates.
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Section 4. Review by George Christakos, Professor, Department of
Environmental Science & Engineering, University of North Carolina
Part I: SUMMARY:
The goals of BenMAP are directed toward a customized human exposure assessment (HEA). HEA is a
subject of great importance, from a scientific and a societal point of view. It is also a subject of
considerable difficulty, at the levels of methodology, theory and application. Unfortunately, BenMAP
does not achieve its goals to a satisfactory degree, especially considering today's advancements in HEA.
In my view, the BenMAP approach suffers from a number of conceptual, methodological and practical
drawbacks and, thus, it needs a major revision and redesign. More specifically:
§1. Methodology: BenMAP's approach lacks a sound methodological support in the context of
integrated HEA (IHEA). In BenMAP, health impact assessment as a whole is achieved solely from
knowledge of its parts (air quality monitoring/modelling, population projections, exposure, health effects,
etc.; see p. ii of the manual). However, the IHEA has a strong holistic component, i.e., health impact
assessment as a whole cannot be achieved solely from knowledge of its parts -it emerges from the
integrated whole itself. Indeed, BenMAP fails to realize that human exposure is an interdisciplinary
science that requires a deep understanding of the epistemic processes (critical reasoning, cognitive states,
logic rules, etc.) of synthesizing information from different scientific disciplines (atmospheric physics,
chemistry, biology, toxicology, statistics, epidemiology, demographics, etc.).
§2. Internal consistency: BenMAP does not provide an adequate consideration of the internal
consistency between the formal part (mathematical theory, techniques etc.), on the one hand, and the
interpretive part (physical meaning of mathematical terms, justifications for the formal assumptions, etc.),
on the other. The lack of an internal consistency account does not allow the BenMAP user to gain
valuable insight regarding crucial connections of the formal methods with experience (including
physically testable hypotheses, interpretation of the exposure maps, experimentation guidance, etc.).
§3. Exposure estimation/interpolation: BenMAP's discussion of salient spatiotemporal data analysis
and processing issues is weak and seriously outdated. This is true as regards interpolation techniques,
composite space-time analysis, and uncertainty assessment alike. In particular:
BenMAP employs either simplistic algorithms (e.g., closest points, neighborhood
averaging) or a primitive geostatistical technique (i.e., the ordinary/block kriging).
The latter technique is used as a panacea, even in cases in which the underlying
geostatistical assumptions are not physically meaningful.
Other (than ordinary kriging) and more powerful members of the kriging family are
ignored by BenMAP, including intrinsic, simple and disjunctive kriging. Intrinsic
kriging is much more appropriate than BenMAP's use of ordinary kriging, when one
deals with spatially non-homogeneous and/or temporal non-stationary air pollutant
distributions. Disjunctive kriging is much more powerful than ordinary kriging,
when one deals with non-linear pollutant estimates (a common situation in exposure
studies). Thus, BenMAP did not realize that not the same type of kriging applies to
all physical problems, and this is why other types of kriging have been developed.
BenMAP considers one attribute at a time. However, many times in real-world
exposure studies one needs to consider several attributes acting in synergy. The
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situation could be handled, at least at an introductory level, by vectorial Wiener-
Kolmogorov estimators or cross-kriging, which are also ignored by BenMAP.
BenMAP disregards modern temporal GIS techniques, which are often more
adequate for interpolation or prediction purposes than any member of the kriging
family. This group includes the Bayesian maximum entropy (BME), the generalized
functions, and the Kalman filter techniques (classical and extended). These
techniques are more adequate than kriging when physical, toxicological, epidemic,
etc. models need to be incorporated in the IHEA study, or the kriging assumptions
are physically meaningless, etc. It is strongly recommended that the "Modern
Spatiotemporal Geostatistics," as well as the "Temporal GIS," literature be reviewed
in the process of revising BenMAP.
The most salient space-time correlation assessment tools of exposure mapping
(covariances, variograms, etc.) are not part of the current BenMAP analysis and
modelling. Instead, BenMAP requires that these tools are obtained using "external"
programs. This approach can cause a host of problems, including compatibility
issues, the lack of an integrated framework, and the danger of deriving "black-box"
results. One may recall, e.g., the embarrassing situation in which an environmental
health research group found itself by using for years an "external" computer package
to calculate (erroneously) the effects of airborne soot on human health (see,
"Statistical error leaves pollution data up in the air." In Nature, 417: 667, 2002; and
"Data revised on soot in air and deaths." In New York Times, June 5, 2002). This
incident shows that even experienced research groups, when required to use
"external" computer packages, tend to do it in an uncritical manner (considering them
as "black-boxes", without checking whether changing certain parameters affects the
outcome, and neglecting to adjusting them, if necessary).
Composite space-time analysis is essentially absent in BenMAP. Important aspects
of a composite analysis, such as metrics (distances in space-time), cross-correlations
and dependencies between spatial and temporal exposure processes, are not covered
in the BenMAP manual. Similarly, spatial and temporal differentiation (micro-
environment variations at a specific geographical location vs. space-time cross-
correlations between different locations and time periods) is not a topic addressed in
BenMAP.
Simple ratios are used as the methods of choice for space- and time-scaling (see, p.
C-3-6). These simplistic methods are highly questionable, especially when the
forecasting of exposure variables is considered.
BenMAP only maps annual averages. But this averaging is usually a simple
arithmetic mean (p. ('-13) rather than a weighted integration that adequately accounts
for the functional form of the space-time domain and cross-dependencies between
pollutant values across space-time.
§4. Uncertainty evaluation: BenMAP treats uncertainty basically in terms of variability among
different studies (see, e.g., Appendix I). This is an inadequate definition of an extremely important
concept.
Uncertainty is an epistemic concept describing one's state of incomplete knowledge.
The epistemic interpretation of uncertainty distinguishes it from natural variability,
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which is rather an ontologic concept describing the space-time distribution of a real-
world phenomenon.
The term "pooling," on the other hand, is associated with the so-called study
variability, which is evaluated by combining the results of different studies.
According to BenMAP, using study variability to improve the estimation of human
exposure parameters constitutes "a second-best but still valuable way to synthesize
information" (see, p. 1-3). This claim is highly questionable and should be
reconsidered. Deriving uncertainty about exposure parameters on the basis of the
outcomes of similar studies begs the question of what is meant by the term "similar"
(e.g., distinctive features of the studies included in the uncertainty analysis, and
appraisal of the C-R models considered). It is not clear how many of these "similar"
studies are needed for an adequate assessment of uncertainty. It is not specified how
one can be sure that variability between studies is not associated with uncertainty
sources but rather with natural changes (natural trends, etc.). Also, important effects
associated with the exposure environment under consideration (space-time patterns,
structure, etc.) are not accounted for in the pooling-based definition of uncertainty.
The Latin Hypercube mode employed by BenMAP is a primitive way to look at
uncertainty by generating histograms of possible incidence changes. Among other
things, such a histogram does not account for the effects on the incidence change at
the grid-cell i of (highly correlated) incidence changes at other space-time points
/ # /. and does not assess the contribution of other exposure parameters acting in
synergy.
An obvious, first recommendation is to express uncertainty in the air quality
distribution across space-time in terms of the prediction error or the space-time
integration probability density (see, also, §8 of Part II below).
Another recommendation is a law-based derivation of uncertainty. E.g., the
uncertainty in the expected health effect can be derived as an analytical function of
the exposure parameters (concentration, etc.) through the C-R and toxicokinetics
laws. The former often have an algebraic form, whereas the latter usually involve a
physiology-based differential equation.
The consequences of uncertainty transcend the domains of the two most significant
constituents of scientific development: explanation and prediction. Thus, this part of
the BenMAP manual needs to undergo a major revision seeking a scientifically
strong analysis of uncertainty.
§5. Estimation of adverse health effects: The main issues of our current ignorance concerning adverse
health effects are related to causality (concrete sources), biological mechanisms, susceptible subgroups
and the existence of thresholds. In view of these considerations, the discussion of the subject of adverse
health effects in the BenMAP manual is uneven. In particular:
The BenMAP manual offers, indeed, an extensive list of the empirical concentration-
response (C-R) functions available mainly in the epidemiologic literature (this is,
perhaps, the most thoroughly discussed component of the BenMAP approach).
However, in the vast majority of cases these C-R functions have been derived
statistically based on "black-box" associations between central-site exposure
measurements and population-wide health endpoints rather than on sound scientific
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reasoning. Characteristic of the situation is that a large number of C-R functions
exist in the epidemiological literature for the same pollutant and health end-point.
This situation is reflected in the BenMAP manual, as well.
There is no discussion in the BenMAP of physiology-based toxicokinetic models.
These models provide the very important bridge between the exposure of an
individual to a pollutant and the resulting health effect (in fact, there is a continuum
of events between exposure and health effect; each biomarker represents an event in
the continuum; see, also, §7 in Part II below). Toxicokinetic models predict
biomarker distribution in human organs and tissues and, thus, they can have serious
effects on the outcome of the (empirical) C-R analysis. By omitting the
toxicokinetics component of IHEA, BenMAP seriously weakens its health damage
assessment efforts.
The impression is given that BenMAP's listing of C-R functions is done in a
"sponge" kind of way (i.e., different kinds of functions are listed without any deeper
examination of their relative biophysical values and mathematical properties), rather
than in a more critical "sieve" fashion (in which only the most significant C-R
functions are listed and critically evaluated, their relative advantages and
disadvantages are considered, and insightful recommendations regarding their
applicability are made). The fact that the C-R models should never be extrapolated
beyond the limits imposed by their actual values without any knowledge of the
underlying biological causes is a fact to be kept in mind when using the BenMAP list
of C-R models. Also, a scientific interpretation of the C-R model parameters should
be considered before employing any model from the BenMAP list. E.g., do they
express the rate of exposure-damage change in the specified case study? Or, their
meaning is better understood in terms of an elasticity indicator? Or, something else?
Scale effects are not discussed. However, a meaningful characterization of health
impacts (mortality, incidence rate, etc.) often involves the assessment of their
spatiotemporal variation at multiple scales. An adequate space-time estimation
method, e.g., should depend on the scale at which the health impact is considered
(city, county, state, etc.) rather than being limited by the scale at which the data are
available. The change-of-scale phenomenon should affect the shape of the
correlation tools used (covariance, variogram, etc.). The significant impact of all
these issues in IHEA is not taken into consideration in BenMAP.
Other crucial health impact factors (e.g., duration and frequency of exposure, intake
and uptake pathways, compartmental analysis, and summary biomarkers) are not
given due attention.
Certain population estimates (p. B-9-10ff) are non-scientific, but rather constitute a
crude way to generate numbers. E.g., the demographic definition currently in use
involves a science-based differential equation, rather than the naive numerics used by
BenMAP. Several other population parameters play an essential role in population
forecasting. A revised BenMAP should employ science-based formulas of
population dynamics, which can be found in the "Applied Mathematical
Demography" literature.
A relevant complicating element of IHEA not adequately recognized in the BenMAP
manual is the question of susceptible subgroups. One of the reasons for a
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dynamically evolving influence of air pollution on health could be a changing
susceptibility in the population due its evolving demographic features. During a
period of decades, the fraction of asthmatics in the population, age distribution,
disease status, Quetlet Index, numbers of diabetics, and number of people with
cardiovascular diseases have all changed. Such demographical changes can make the
total population more or less responsive to air pollution and, thus, temporally change
the relative risk (RR) value (e.g., at year t compared to year t-10 or t-20). It is
recommended that a BenMAP revision think of RR for environmental factors as
being variable in time and space rather than as a static measure.
Problems associated with the RR as defined in BenMAP include the fact that often it
is not obvious what the appropriate baseline and control incidence rates should be,
what the relevant covariates are, etc. A reasonable suggestion could be to assess RR
by means of the holistic space-time human exposure assessment or a stochastic
physico-epidemiologic predictability criterion (see, also, §§12-17 of Part II below).
§6. Presentation: There are certain presentation elements that need improvement, including:
The BenMAP manual lacks a general chapter with rigorous discussion of objectives,
assumptions, theories, and methods independently of the programming details.
The framework for displaying results is satisfactory for many spatial environments,
whereas it is rather inadequate in the case of space-time analysis and mapping.
The manual does not have an index, which is a useful tool in routine applications of
BenMAP.
§7. Computer programs: The computer programs have certain drawbacks and need re-design. Some of
these drawbacks are direct consequences of the preceding methodological and theoretical observations,
whereas some others have a different source. The latter include:
The BenMAP computer library does not seem particularly user friendly (this is my
own conclusion as well as that of my associates whom I asked to test-run the library).
An introductory course may be needed to prepare the user if he/she is to avoid
spending a significant amount of his/her time to implement the programs properly.
While the user interface is appropriately organized, the user guide does not
appropriately complement and correspond with the user interface. While testing the
programs, we obtained several error messages but the manual did not offer sufficient
assistance to navigate through the programs successfully.
The BenMAP computer programs are designed to specifically handle annual changes
of air quality in USA and do not constitute a tool of wide applicability, which was the
impression given in the first few paragraphs of the manual (p. /'). Also, BenMAP
does not allow printing directly from the program (see p. 8-18).
The usefulness of the BenMAP computer library is limited by the fact that some of its
most important components (e.g., exposure estimation) cannot be used without
certain "external programs" (e.g., see p. C-14) This being the case, certain of
BenMAP's claims could be deceiving. Indeed, in the case of exposure estimation,
the most important Step 1 of kriging is the modelling of the spatial correlation
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functions (covariance or variogram); the subsequent Step 2 is merely the
straightforward solution of a linear system of equations. BenMAP, however, cannot
perform Step 1, being limited to Step 2. Hence, the BenMAP user is asked to seek an
"external" geostatistics computer library to perform Step 1. Most well-known
libraries (GSlib, BMElib etc.) perform both kriging steps, in which case one wonders
why one needs to use BenMAP just for Step 2, especially since the existing
geostatistics computer libraries are more advanced/complete/tested and, thus, much
more reliable than BenMAP, in this respect.
§8. By way of a summary, BenMAP could have been a useful tool at the initial, purely inductive level of
human exposure assessment, which basically involved piling up data and then fitting elementary
mathematical functions to these data. Unfortunately, this approach is clearly inadequate at the higher
IHEA level of scientific explanation and prediction. In this case, BenMAP needs to be considerable
revised in order to account for the sophisticated IHEA concepts, models and techniques currently
available.
Part II: MORE DETAILED COMMENTS AND SUGGESTIONS
§1. Broadly speaking, BenMAP's two-fold goal is (a) human exposure assessment (HEA) and (b) its
economic/policy consequences. We focus on the former without under-evaluating the importance of the
latter. Let us focus on the methodological issues of BenMAP. There are a number of interesting
connections involved in or resulting from attempts to link research taking place in different disciplines.
In the HEA context, a central issue is to lay out conceptual and methodological frameworks through
which cross-disciplinary research can proceed. The reason for this focus is rather obvious. One of the
chief problems is that researchers from different fields approach problems with different conceptual tools
and methodological orientations. Thus, high priority should be given to the need to develop integrating
conceptual and methodological frameworks in which cross-disciplinary HEA research can proceed.
Methodological standards are important for the additional reason that they act like teachers: they give
marks to human exposure models and evaluate the adequacy of their techniques.
§2. Since HEA links research taking place in different scientific disciplines, it becomes necessary to
employ an integrated HEA (IHEA) methodology. Indeed, a scientific IHEA ought to be based on a good
"integration framework," i.e., a framework involving the main components of the environmental causal
chain (ECC): pollutant fate and transport across space-time, exposure theories, physiology-based
toxicokinetics, cohort-based health effects, demographics-based population risk assessment, etc.
Unfortunately, the approach of the BenMAP manual is rather black-box, lacking any such integration
framework. Therefore, the manual needs to be revised considerably, starting with a carefully considered
IHEA framework that can offer a sound methodological basis to the subsequent health benefit techniques
and computer programs.
§3. Furthermore, IHEA scientists are typically faced with the so-called internal consistency challenge,
that is, the challenge of providing for any given space-time domain simultaneously acceptable formal and
interpretive analyses that are also internally consistent. Indeed, in almost all cases the challenge arises of
reconciling a plausible account of what is involved in the truth of formal statements referring to the
exposure situation with a credible account of how we come to know and interpret these statements. Such
an internal consistency element is missing in BenMAP.
§4. The use of interpolation techniques by BenMAP to study air pollution distributions across space-time
could be much more complete. E.g., important concepts in need of better description are:
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a. Vital concepts like "spatial variability," "uncertainty," "spatial interpolation," and
"space-time cross-effects" are not adequately conceived and used.
b. Underlying the geostatistical interpolation techniques used in the manual is the
fundamental concept of random field or function. I.e., the interpolated attribute (air
pollutant, population effect, etc.) is represented by a random function. However, the
manual makes no reference to the specific features that the random function must
possess in order to provide a physically meaningful model of the interpolated attribute.
c. No sufficient information is given about the main geostatistical interpolation tools used
in air pollution and their conceptual link to space-time estimation and interpolation.
In view of the conceptual concerns a-c above, the attempted interpolation can lack any physical
interpretation and can generate inaccurate maps.
§5. Important practical issues of spatial variation to be accounted for by BenMAP include the following:
Covariance, variogram or structure function shape and its physical interpretation,
correlation ranges (local or global, directionality, etc.),
covariance or variogram behavior at the origin and at large distances (directly related
to the in situ behavior of the stressor fields),
spatial anisotropy (geometric, etc.),
local diversions from spatial homogeneity/stationarity (trend assessment, etc.),
restrictive modeling assumptions (like normality and linearity).
All these issues seem to be "pushed under the carpet," although an adequate assessment of space-time
variation of the pollutants considered in the BenMAP manual does constitute the very foundation of
IHEA.
§6. For several years, the IHEA literature has introduced space-time exposure functions that are
theoretically more advanced and practically more powerful than those presented in the manual. A few of
these functions are listed below:
(1) relative area of excess contamination (RAEC),
(2) mean excess differential contamination (MEDC) and conditional MEDC,
(3) contaminant indicator dispersion (CID),
(4) functional and cumulative spatiotemporal exposures (F-CE),
(5) summary biomarkers across space-time (SB),
(6) environmental causal chain (ECC) and exposure-response curves (ERC),
(7) population health damage indices (PHD, local and global), and
(8) population exposure-damage elasticity (PEDE).
The authors of the BenMAP manual should familiarize themselves with the elaborate theories existing in
the IHEA literature regarding functions such as (l)-(8) above as well as their relations and dependencies
(often expressed in a rigorous and systematic manner by means of algebraic and differential equations).
§7. As is depicted in the following figure, there is a continuum of events between exposure and health
effect. Each biomarker represents an event in the continuum. The relationships between biomarkers
depend on genetic and other characteristics of the
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Intake
Exposure
Uptake
Burden
4
Receptor
Dose
Health
Effect
Early
Biologic effects
Precursor
Biologic effects
individual; in fact, biomarkers calculated on the basis of similarly exposed people may show significant
variation. The study of the continuum biomarkers provides the means for improved environmental health
analysis and management. For example, critical disease-related events may be detected earlier on a
smaller scale, which makes it possible to focus on preclinical rather than clinical intervention approaches.
Also, valuable hints may be obtained regarding the mechanisms relating exposure and health effect. To
any component of the continuum, susceptibility markers can be assigned, which are considered as
indicators of increased or decreased risk for the particular component. For example, genetic and acquired
factors (DNA repair, differences in metabolism, nutritional deficiencies, etc.) may lead to individual
susceptibility to cancer.
§8. Uncertainty in the BenMAP manual is considered merely as variability among different studies (e.g.,
Appendix I). This is an inadequate definition of an extremely important term. Uncertainty is of far
greater importance in scientific thought. It can be a technical notion reflecting error measurements and
observation biases; it may also possess a deep conceptual meaning in epistemic terms (incomplete
understanding, subjective kind of a variable associated with decisions and preferences, limited
computational capabilities, etc.). Variability, on the other hand, is mostly linked to ontologic notions
(inherent fluctuations of the system under consideration, lack of well-defined patterns, etc.). BenMAP
needs to completely revise this part, aiming at a scientifically strong analysis of uncertainty that takes into
account all important factors. E.g., while at the level of independent clinical trials, an interpretation of
data uncertainty in terms of frequencies could be adequate in most cases. At the level of natural
phenomena that vary in space-time, the same interpretation proves to be clearly inadequate, and a
different physical theory-laden interpretation of uncertainty is needed. As a first step, BenMAP could
include uncertainty estimation in terms of space-time prediction error, or as a parameter of the integration
probability density function. At a later stage, the proper interpretation of uncertainty should depend on
the level of the hierarchy that the human exposure system is associated with.
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§9. In reality, the population health risk characterization is somewhat more complicated than it may be
suggested by the concentration-response (C-R) functions of BenMAP. The unit risk is often defined as a
quantitative measure of risk increase per concentration increment, assuming an empirical C-R function.
Most often in practice the unit risk calculation (of, e.g., cancers caused by environmental exposure) is not
made for ambient measurements at a central site monitor, but is rather based on much higher occupational
exposures that have been translated into the lower ambient concentrations. What remains to be done for
many pollutants is the quantitative characterisation of the personal exposure to ambient pollution levels
during the normal daily life (e.g., personal exposure to benzene comes from several other sources than
merely the ambient ones). A second complication that should be considered in the BenMAP manual is
that for a number of ambient components for which the risk assessment in the local environment is a
central policy issue (e.g., PM and Ozone), there have not yet been found mechanisms and sources or
fractions that could be called causal of the observed health effects, such as mortality at current ambient
concentrations. The observed health effects have been established statistically, based on "black box"
associations between central-site exposure measurements and population-wide health endpoints (e.g.,
mortality and morbidity) rather than on sound scientific reasoning. At a minimum, it would be interesting
to discuss the scientific interpretation of the C-R model parameters. (Do they express the rate of
exposure-damage change, an elasticity index etc.?). Here, hazard identification is based on ambient
concentration measurements at a central site, which are considered representative of the exposures of all
people living within a radius of a few tens up to 100 Km from that central site. Ideally, health effects
measures of ambient pollution would be the personal exposures of the different people living in that area,
instead of assigning the same exposure level to all members of the population.
§ 10. Exposure studies show that daily differences in ambient concentrations appear to be associated with
daily differences in mortality and morbidity. This is seen consistently and coherently in virtually every
place of the world where this kind of research has been done using time-series analysis and classical
Bayesian statistics. Traditional epidemiological research leads to time and place-depended concentrations
and relative risks of health endpoints, but as yet the details of the whole chain of events lying in between
remain an enigma, in most cases. Thus, the expression 'black-box' is justifiably used. The results of
these traditional epidemiological studies are essentially (multiple linear) regressions, which should never
be extrapolated beyond the limits imposed by their actual values without any knowledge of the underlying
biological causes, which is a fact to be kept in mind in any BenMAP revisions.
§11. The implementation of kriging as an air pollution space-time interpolation technique by BenMAP
needs improvement:
Why does BenMAP use only ordinary kriging for interpolation?
The presentation in the manual is limited to a brute-force implementation of some
kind of ordinary kriging computer code without any rigorous justification. In many
air pollution cases the assumptions underlying ordinary kriging (linearity, Gaussian,
homogeneity, etc.) are inadequate to describe the physical environment under
consideration, in which case using ordinary kriging makes absolutely no sense.
BenMAP fails to include other members of the kriging family (simple, intrinsic,
disjunctive, etc.) that can be more appropriate, depending on the spatial and temporal
variation characteristics of the environment. The "black box" implementation of a
computer code is never justified in a science-based exposure assessment.
How are local trends taken into consideration?
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This is an important issue, which can seriously affect the interpolation results (air
pollution maps, etc.). No clear description of the methods available to deal with
trend problems is given by BenMAP.
What about modern space-time exposure estimation and interpolation algorithms'?
BenMAP seems to be unaware of the various techniques existing in the literature that
can handle space-time exposure estimation and interpolation situations in a
mathematically rigorous and physically meaningful manner. The BenMAP authors
should consult the extensive literature on space-time estimation, interpolation and
prediction (including the spatiotemporal random field theory, Bayesian maximum
entropy prediction techniques, and Kalman filtering).
Why is a composite space-time analysis not considered by BenMA
Powerful stochastic techniques have been developed for the rigorous analysis and
modelling of IHEA systems in a composite space-time domain. The underlying
methodology is based on a science-based critical reasoning process that integrates
knowledge bases from various disciplines (physical, biological, epidemiological,
etc.), derives useful mathematical expressions of exposure variables (exposure rate
profile, cumulative exposure, functional or summary biomarker, time-cumulative
intake and uptake, biologically significant burden, health effect threshold indicator,
etc.), and generates accurate predictions of population health effects across space and
time. These stochastic techniques are very general, having a wide range of
applications. E.g., spatiotemporal random field models have been employed to study
environmental exposure-health effect associations between environmental exposures
(PM or temperature) and mortality distributions. This model is used as the tool of
choice for rigorously accounting for important spatiotemporal variations and
uncertainties related to exposures and effects. Within this modelling framework, the
BME technique neatly synthesizes various sources of physical and epidemiological
knowledge (scientific theories, soft data, uncertain observations, physical and
biological laws, higher-order spatiotemporal moments, etc.) into IHEA. Thus, an
interesting feature of the BME approach is the integration of the physical processes
of exposure with the epidemiologic processes of effect in a space-time continuum.
This essential feature is not shared by previous statistical approaches to the exposure-
health effect problem that have been based on classical statistics techniques (spatial
regression, multivariate statistics, etc.). By ignoring important knowledge bases and
scientific reasoning principles, these techniques have been proven seriously
inadequate in establishing exposure-effect associations in a realistic space-time
context.
Why is spatial and temporal differentiation not investigated in BenMAP?
Generally speaking, spatiotemporal differentiation in IHEA can be subdivided into
two main classes: (a) one that considers variation in micro-environments when
assessing the health impact at a specific geographical location; and (b) one that
considers correlations across space and time when assessing the health impact at
different geographical areas and at different time periods.
Another interesting feature of modern IHEA that should be considered by BenMAP is that the
-time association between exposure and health effect distributions can be studied by means of a
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stochastic physico-epidemiologic predictability (PEP) criterion. While stochastic associations of this kind
do not always imply necessary and sufficient causation conditions, the PEP criterion relates physical
knowledge with epidemiologic distribution, accounts for inter-subject and intra-subject variabilities, and
offers valuable insight regarding the existence of a causation relationship. In light of the PEP criterion, an
environmental exposure-health effect association can be established in the stochastic sense above, given
the available knowledge bases processed by the stochastic PEP criterion. If an improved understanding of
the biological or toxicological mechanism leads to new knowledge bases, the PEP criterion will
rigorously account for these bases in deriving its conclusions. However, for many compounds there still
is no established biological or toxicological mechanism behind the associations used in the C-R
relationships.
§13. When BenMAP constructs environmental risk indicators in terms of some simple average, many
important elements have been ignored, including:
(1) the temporal aspect of exposure,
(2) its duration and frequency,
(3) the scale of exposure,
(4) the space-time filters (incorporating summarizing effects, etc.),
(5) the intake and uptake pathways, as well as
(6) the type of cohorts considered (age, sex, pre-existing medical conditions, activity
characteristics, etc.).
The scale issue, e.g., is closely linked to the decision regarding the size of the indicator design area. If the
temporal effect has been averaged out, the technique used for this purpose must be described. Instead, the
BenMAP manual does not even make a single reference to the crucial elements (l)-(6) of human exposure
assessment. A much more realistic indicator analysis would result by replacing the basic formulas of the
manual with a formula that accounts for just a few of the exposure elements above - the relevant
equations have existed in the human exposure literature for several years. Valuable insight is offered by
the well-known exposure-damage elasticity indicator, which measures the ratio of the fractional change
in health damage over the fractional change in exposure across space and time. Yet another important
issue is the so-called "time-delayed" factor, i.e., accounting for the time elapsing between the exposure
and the resulting health effect. These issues are quantified in the context of exposure assessment and
expressed in terms of integral equations (see "Spatiotemporal Environmental Health Modelling"
literature).
§ 14. It is suggested that a revised BenMAP pay more attention to the significance of using a
mathematically rigorous and physically meaningful/consistent definition of relative risk (RR). The
population health effects of ambient compounds may be characterized by the RR measure, indicating how
often the incidence of a certain health endpoint is augmented by a unit increase in concentration (DC).
Establishing the health impact assessment (HIA) for such compounds is often done by calculating the
population attributable fraction in combination with the incidence (INC=base rate) of the considered
population health endpoint, namely HIA=PAF XlNC. The PAF is calculated from the RR per unit
concentration and the average ambient concentration C by PAF=(RR-1) XC/RR. From these equations, it
follows that HIA is a function of C, INC and RR, and that changes in one of these parameters have
numerical consequences for the others. E.g., a INC difference leading to an opposite effect on RR was
recently reported in the context of a project in which the authors looked at the confounding and effect
modification of ambient particles on total mortality for a number of cities. The numerical values of the
RR can be assessed by an epidemiological time series analysis of population mortality or morbidity
during the time period in question. Such analyses can be done for the whole population, for susceptible
subgroups or cohorts, or for specific geographical areas, and could be the focus of a revised BenMAP.
The numerical C-values can be measured by a monitoring program or may be assessed by models when
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these have been thoroughly validated. The values of the health incidences (INC) in a population have to
be established by a health monitoring program or a representative scheme of data collection for statistical
purposes. As regards the transfer of an exposure-response association into a new population context for
health impact assessment, the conclusion often is that whenever the baseline occurrence of the health
endpoint in question differs across study populations, the result of pooling the relative risks from the
respective studies may be misleading.
§15. Unfortunately, the RR assessment for exposure cannot be made in the same manner as that of a
physical constant. As far as our modest information allows us to derive conclusions, we have to think of
RR for environmental factors as being variable in time and space. When a certain exposure C has a health
impact HIA in a population, it follows that any change in INC automatically leads to a similar change in
RR in the opposite direction. As the incidences of health effects, whether being mortality or morbidity,
are not constant in a population and change permanently, the RR will not be constant as well. When the
C and the HIA also change in time, the necessity of a regular assessment of RR in populations becomes
even clearer. In many cases it is necessary to use information for an HIA that is tailored to the conditions
in the USA, meaning using RR that are representative for the time and place. Therefore, the most recent
local estimates for RR always have to be used to make a reliable HIA. When an HIA for some other time
period is required, we do not only have to estimate the future concentrations C at time t, but also we have
to estimate the future RR at time t in order to arrive at a reliable HIA.
§ 16. One of the reasons for a dynamically evolving influence of air pollution on health could be a
changing susceptibility in the population due its evolving demographic features. During a period of
decades the fraction of asthmatics in the population, the age distribution, disease status, Quetlet Index,
numbers of diabetics, and number of people with cardiovascular diseases have all changed. Such
demographical changes can make the total population more or less responsive to air pollution and, thus,
temporally change the RR; value (e.g., at year i compared to year i-10 or i-20). Also the population
dynamics are important in the calculation of the base incidence rates INC, over time. These values can
and will change for a differently structured population and values of INQ+io and INC1+2o for specific
health effects may be quite different in 10 or 20 years from the incidence rates that we currently see.
§ 17. The BenMAP authors may find it useful to look at developments related to the holistic space-time
human exposure assessment methodological framework. This is a very general, ECC-based framework
that studies the impact of spatiotemporal exposure distributions on the health of human populations. It
acknowledges the inadequacies of older approaches and makes a serious effort to improve health impact
analysis by means of the horizontal integration among sciences relevant to human exposure, which leads
to accurate and informative spatiotemporal maps of exposure and effect distributions and an integrative
analysis of the whole risk case. Important characteristics of this framework are holisticity and
stochasticity. Holisticity emphasizes the functional relationships between composite space/time pollutant
maps, toxicokinetic models of burden on target organs and tissues, and health effects. These relationships
offer a meaningful physical interpretation of the exposure and biological processes that affect human
exposure. Stochasticity involves the rigorous representation of natural uncertainties and biological
variations in terms of random fields. The stochastic perspective introduces a deeper epistemic
understanding in the development of improved models of spatiotemporal human exposure analysis and
mapping. Also, it explicitly determines the knowledge bases available and develops logically plausible
rules and standards for data processing and human exposure map construction (more details can be found
in the "Spatiotemporal Environmental Health Modelling" literature).
§18. Due to our behaviour, humans constitute a complicating factor in the modelling of the ECC. We
tend to spend most of our time indoors and some of it inside vehicles, whereas much less time is spent
outside in the ambient environment. For exposure purposes, therefore, it is very important to take into
account these various micro-environments, each with quite different levels of exposures. Also, exposures
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at the workplace may interfere with environmental exposures. Generally speaking, workplace standards
tend to be an order (or orders) of magnitude higher than environmental standards. For these different
micro-environments the indoor/outdoor ratio (which provides a measure of ambient pollution penetration
into the indoor environment) is an important descriptor not considered in the BenMAP manual. Personal
exposure is also influenced by the level of activities and the nature of the activities assumed for the
representative individual (usually defined as an individual belonging to a specific cohort: age range, sex
group, health state, pre-existing health conditions, activity range etc.). Note that, to some extent these
activities and the ensuing exposures have a seasonal component, as well.
§ 19. For ambient compounds, such as the PM and Ozone considered in the BenMAP manual and central
to policy issues, the current state of affairs is that they should be seen as indicators or surrogates of
something else in the environment. Because of the current uncertainty in mechanisms and causal factors
concerning PM and summer smog (Ozone), the range of health endpoints reported in epidemiological
studies is rather broad. They range from minor complaints to more extensive use of medicines, to
morbidity and hospital admissions, and even to extra mortality. The figure below presents a model of
how these environmental effects might affect public health. Mortality is more or less the top of a pyramid
of underlying health problems. Large parts of the population are exposed to ambient air pollution, while
mortality affects only a small fraction. In recent epidemiological studies the entire pyramid has been
studied and the various health endpoints have been found to be more or less logical in the way that they
relate to medical events linked to the respiratory and cardiovascular system (and not, e.g., with mortality
due to stomach problems). A revised BenMAP will greatly benefit by presenting its adverse health effect
functions (C-R, etc.) in view of the above pyramid.
§20. For the specific data sets considered in the BenMAP, considerable insight can be gained by
calculating stochastic exposure indicators like the distribution of the binary-valued exposure field (for
thresholds calculated on the basis of environmental and health requirements), and the associated one- and
two-point exposure indicators, such as:
(1) the expected exposure indicator,
(2) the expected exposure indicator,
(3) the expected excess exposure above the threshold at each space-time point,
(4) the expected excess differential exposure across space-time (which is equal to the expected
difference between exposure and threshold if exposure exceeds the threshold, and zero
otherwise),
(5) the conditional mean excess exposure over the threshold,
(6) the exceedance odds indicator (expressing the probability ratio of excess over below-threshold
exposure at each point in space-time,
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mortality
morbidity
pathophysiological
changes
adverse
health
effects
physiological changes
of uncertain significance
pollutant exposure
< proportion of the population affected >
as well as several others that can be found in the "Spatiotemporal Environmental Health Modelling"
literature.
§21. Generally, the number of health effects occurring in a population seems to decrease with the
severity of the effects. E.g., the number of hospital admissions for a certain cause of death attributed to
ambient pollution is generally higher than the actual number of deaths. The crucial issue then is the level
of medical or epidemiological detail required in order to be able to take effective policy measures to
reduce the health impact of environmental exposures. For the field of environmental safety, this question
has been answered in the past by choosing mortality as the risk indicator, while at the same time
acknowledging that for every death there is an underlying number of less serious health consequences
that, for simplicity, is not expressed by a specific measure or compared to some (policy) yardstick. In the
BenMAP context, one could suggest mortality as a health risk indicator for the environmental exposures
considered (PM, Ozone) without loosing track of the fact that there is an underlying web of population
health effects which cannot be addressed by mortality alone.
§22. In addition to the above, there are certain serious issues related to susceptible subgroups. Currently,
the elderly and, under certain circumstances, children are considered to be susceptible subgroups of PM
effects. Other susceptible subgroups that have been suggested include people with cardio-vascular
diseases, diabetics, and asthmatics. Historically, the health status of the population changes rapidly (e.g.,
in certain areas the numbers of diabetics and asthmatics have risen dramatically during the past decades).
Also, it could be speculated that because of the improved health care systems in some regions of the
country that manage to keep people alive longer, the numbers of very frail and possibly more susceptible
persons are on the increase. To take this speculation even further, if this rise in the number of susceptible
persons is larger than the decrease in the levels of environmental pollution, the population health impact
could well be on the rise despite a gradual improvement of environmental quality. A second element
concerning susceptibility to ambient pollution not considered by BenMAP is the socio economic status
(SES). For chronic PM exposure, relations have been established between SES and health effects.
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Whether such relationships are mediated by food status (e.g., anti-oxidants), a better access to medical
care or some other cause is not yet clear. In time-series analysis, SES is not an issue, since everybody is
under his/her own control.
Part III: PEER REVIEW QUESTIONS AND ISSUES
1. General:
a) Does BenMAP provide a useful and sensible structure for addressing policy analysis needs?
-N/A
b) Does it provide adequate flexibility to users for addressing important policy questions?
-N/A
c) Are the different components of the model appropriately defined and linked to one another?
- Generally, yes.
2. Input Databases: Keeping in mind that some of the input databases are fixed in the model and some
can be adapted or supplemented...
a) Are the fixed input databases appropriately selected and defined using
Census and projected demographic data?
- Some problems with the simplistic methods of choice, see Reviewer's Report.
Modeled air quality data?
- It focuses solely on 03, PM2.5 and PM10 for 1966 (e.g., p. A-l). Some problems with
choice of model, see Reviewer's Report.
Baseline incidence data?
- Background level (see, e.g., p. A-l3).
b) Are the adaptable input databases appropriately selected and defined for
Monitored air quality data?
- Yes, but limited to certain pollutants.
Concentration-response functions?
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-A wide selection is considered, although in a rather uncritical manner; see, Reviewer's
Report for a detailed analysis of the situation.
Valuation functions?
- Including raw incidence, pooled incidence, pooled valuation etc.
3. Exposure Estimation Algorithms: To spatially and temporally align population, air quality, and
incidence data as inputs to the concentration-response functions, BenMAP uses several estimation and
interpolation algorithms.
a) Are these methods scientifically sound and appropriate for
interpolating and projecting population estimates for non-Census years?
- Only simple ratios are considered that offer a rather poor assessment of the situation
(p. B-9-10), see, also, Reviewer's Report.
estimating population subgroups (e.g., by age, gender, ethnicity, etc.)?
- Suffers from the use of simplistic formulas, which are rather crude ways to generate
numbers that do not always have a scientific meaning, see, also, Reviewer's Report.
estimating the spatial distribution of populations and linking them to air quality grids?
- Serious problems, see Reviewer's Report.
spatial and temporal interpolation of pollutant monitoring data?
- Scaling factors are discussed (p. C -15-18); the analysis is theoretically weak; see
Reviewer's Report.
b) Does BenMAP offer an appropriate menu of interpolation options for estimating exposures?
- Idefmitely no, due to a number of issues discussed in detail in Reviewer's Report. The
interpolation options in the menu are very inadequate for today's IHEA standards. The menu is
limited to either naive techniques (e.g., closest point and Voronoi neighborhood averaging), or a
poorly developed geostatistics technique of ordinary kriging. The menu is limited to one
pollutant at a time. Etc.
c) Do these methods provide appropriate inputs for the class of concentration-response functions
allowable in the model?
- For a certain class of functions, yes.
4. Aggregation and Pooling Methods: BenMAP offers alternative approaches for spatially
aggregating health effects estimates and for pooling separate estimates of health effects for valuation.
4-16
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a) Does BenMAP offer an appropriate menu of aggregation and pooling options?
- Yes, in terms of "Create " and "Reuse " (see, in p. 3-8).
b) Do these methods provide appropriate inputs for the class of valuation functions allowable in the
model?
-In a rather formal manner, perhaps. The interpretive element is lacking due to the
methodological, theoretical and applied concerns mentioned in my Reviewer's Report.
5. Uncertainty Analysis Methods: BenMap offers options for including and evaluating how
uncertainty regarding (1) C-R relationships and (2) valuation functions affect model outputs?
a) Does BenMAP allow the user to adequately and appropriately specify uncertainty for these two
areas?
- No. It merely uses N-point Latin Hypercube. For further suggestions see Reviewer's Report.
b) Are the uncertainty routines properly specified and incorporated in the model?
- They are included, but they are inadequate (from a conceptual and practical viewpoints).
c) Without greatly complicating the structure of the model, are there additional areas or types of
uncertainty that could or should be incorporated in BenMAP?
- This part of the manual is weak and needs to undergo considerable revision, see Reviewer's
Report for a detailed discussion and suggestions. The uncertainty issue is much more serious
than what it seems to be the suggested in the BenMAP manual.
6. Report and Mapping Results: BenMAP offers several options for reporting and mapping air
quality, population, incidence, and valuation data and results.
a) Do these options provide an adequate and appropriate framework for displaying results?
- Mostly yes, although these options are of limited use in the case of space-time analysis and
mapping (see, p. 7-3, 8-1, and 8-2). Of course, the inadequacies of the display framework in the
space-time domain can be directly related to the corresponding inadequacies of the theory and
methods employed in BenMAP.
b) Are the results displays appropriately specified and configured to address the intended uses and
analytical needs of BenMAP (as defined above and in the model documentation)?
- Yes, but BenMAP only maps annual averages and does not allow printing directly from the
program (see p. 8-18).
7. User Interface and User Guide: BenMAP is a menu driven interactive software tool with multiple
options and features, as described above.
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a) Is the user interface appropriately organized, easy to use, and easy to follow? Through the user
interface, are the options and features well described and easy to navigate?
- Not as efficient as other similar menus I am aware of.
b) Is the user guide appropriately organized, easy to use, and easy to follow?
- Things could be improved with some kind of an Index.
c) Does the user guide appropriately complement and correspond with the user interface?
- No, I got several error messages. The manual does not provide sufficient guidance for an easy
navigation.
d) Does the user guide provide the necessary explanation and background for installing and running
the model, selecting options, and displaying results?
- No. A short course would help considerable, see Reviewer's Report.
e) Does the user guide adequately explain the model's objectives and the model's underlying
structure, assumptions, data, methods, and routines?
- The BenMAP manual lacks a general chapter with objectives, assumptions and methods,
independent of the programming details.
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Appendix A: Peer Reviewers' Charge
The following letter and instructions were sent by RTI to each of the three reviewers in February 2004.
Dear [Reviewer Name]
Thank you for agreeing to serve as a peer reviewer of EPA's Environmental Benefits Mapping and
Analysis Program (BenMAP).
BenMAP is an interactive computer model designed as tool for environmental policy analysis. It
provides users with a platform for conducting customized analyses of the health benefits associated with
selected changes in air quality levels across the country.
BenMAP is designed to provide users with a flexible framework for integrating data and models from
various sources. For example, it allows users to incorporate monitored or modeled air pollutant
concentrations estimates in various forms as key inputs for analysis. It also allows users to choose and
adapt concentration-response functions for health effects estimation and valuation functions for economic
analysis.
As described in the User's Manual, some of the more specific intended uses of BenMAP are for
generation of population/community level ambient pollution exposure maps;
comparing benefits associated with regulatory programs;
estimating health impacts and costs of existing air pollution concentrations;
estimating health benefits of alternative ambient air quality standards;
performing sensitivity analyses of health or valuation functions, or of other inputs; and
screening analyses.
With these design objectives in mind, we request that you review the model software and documentation
and provide us with your assessment of the model's scientific accuracy, credibility, objectivity, and
technical appropriateness.
Below you will find a list of both general and specific questions that we would like you to consider in
conducting your review. We do not expect you to answer each question individually, but we would like
you to use them as a guide in preparing your review. Please address as many of these issues as possible,
but feel free to focus on areas that correspond best with your technical expertise and interests.
We request that you submit a written review no later than March 26. You can email the review to me at
gvh@rti.org. Please organize the review in the form of a memorandum or a short report (preferably in
WordPerfect, but otherwise in MSWord), beginning with your general impressions of the model and then
moving to your more specific comments.
Thanks again for your participation. If you have any questions, please feel free to contact via email or at
(919) 541-7150 or Cate Corey at (919) 541-3767.
Sincerely,
George Van Houtven
Senior Economist
Environmental and Natural Resource Economics Program
RTI International
A-l
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Peer Review Questions and Issues
1. General:
a) Does BenMAP provide a useful and sensible structure for addressing policy analysis needs?
b) Does it provide adequate flexibility to users for addressing important policy questions?
c) Are the different components of the model appropriately defined and linked to one another?
2. Input Databases: Keeping in mind that some of the input databases are fixed in the model and some
can be adapted or supplemented...
a) Are the fixed input databases appropriately selected and defined using
Census and projected demographic data?
Modeled air quality data?
Baseline incidence data?
b) Are the adaptable input databases appropriately selected and defined for
Monitored air quality data?
Concentration-response functions?
Valuation functions?
3. Exposure Estimation Algorithms: To spatially and temporally align population, air quality, and
incidence data as inputs to the concentration-response functions, BenMAP uses several estimation and
interpolation algorithms.
a) Are these methods scientifically sound and appropriate for
interpolating and projecting population estimates for non-Census years?
estimating population subgroups (e.g., by age, gender, ethnicity, etc.)?
estimating the spatial distribution of populations and linking them to air quality grids?
spatial and temporal interpolation of pollutant monitoring data?
b) Does BenMAP offer an appropriate menu of interpolation options for estimating exposures?
c) Do these methods provide appropriate inputs for the class of concentration-response functions
allowable in the model?
4. Aggregation and Pooling Methods: BenMAP offers alternative approaches for spatially
aggregating health effects estimates and for pooling separate estimates of health effects for valuation.
a) Does BenMAP offer an appropriate menu of aggregation and pooling options?
b) Do these methods provide appropriate inputs for the class of valuation functions allowable in the
model?
A-2
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5. Uncertainty Analysis Methods: BenMap offers options for including and evaluating how
uncertainty regarding (1) C-R relationships and (2) valuation functions affect model outputs?
a) Does BenMAP allow the user to adequately and appropriately specify uncertainty for these two
areas?
b) Are the uncertainty routines properly specified and incorporated in the model?
c) Without greatly complicating the structure of the model, are there additional areas or types of
uncertainty that could or should be incorporated in BenMAP?
6. Report and Mapping Results: BenMAP offers several options for reporting and mapping air
quality, population, incidence, and valuation data and results.
a) Do these options provide an adequate and appropriate framework for displaying results?
b) Are the results displays appropriately specified and configured to address the intended uses and
analytical needs of BenMAP (as defined above and in the model documentation)?
7. User Interface and User Guide: BenMAP is a menu driven interactive software tool with multiple
options and features, as described above.
a) Is the user interface appropriately organized, easy to use, and easy to follow? Through the user
interface, are the options and features well described and easy to navigate?
b) Is the user guide appropriately organized, easy to use, and easy to follow?
c) Does the user guide appropriately complement and correspond with the user interface?
d) Does the user guide provide the necessary explanation and background for installing and running
the model, selecting options, and displaying results?
e) Does the user guide adequately explain the model's objectives and the model's underlying
structure, assumptions, data, methods, and routines?
A-3
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Appendix B. Curriculum Vitae of BenMAP Peer Reviewers
B.l Alan J. Krupnick
Resources for the Future
1616 P Street, NW
Washington, DC 20036
(202) 328-5000
Fax: (202) 939-3460
Education:
University of Maryland, Ph.D., Economics, June 1980 (Dissertation Title: The Optimal
Control of Pollution with Endogenous Labor Supply)
University of Maryland, M.A., Economics, 1972-1974
Columbia University, Graduate School of Business, International Business, 1969-1970
Pennsylvania State University, B.S., Finance, With Distinction, 1965-1969
Professional Experience:
1998-Present Director, Quality of the Environment Division, Resources for the Future
Senior Fellow, Resources for the Future
Fellow, Resources for the Future
1990-Present
1980-1990
1993-1994
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1993
1990-1992
1989-1990
Senior Economist, Council of Economic Advisers; on leave from Resources for the
Future
Consultant, USEPA
Consultant: USEPA, Health Canada
Consultant: European Community, Environment Directorate.
Consultant: World Bank.
Consultant: World Bank, Europe and Central Asia Division; PacifiCorp, Great Lakes
Commission; Canadian Energy Research Institute.
Consultant: World Health Organization; World Bank, Industry and Energy Division and
Europe and Central Asia Division; Environment Canada; Industry Canada.
Consultant: USAID; Harvard Institute for International Development; World Bank, Latin
America Division; Environment Canada; Health Canada, Industry Canada
Consultant: Ontario Hydro; World Bank, Latin America Division; American Petroleum
Institute, Southern Appalachian Management Initiative
Consultant: World Bank, Asia Division; Office of Technology Assessment
Consultant, World Bank Latin America Region, Public Economics Division (Country
Department), World Development Report
Consultant, World Bank, Environment Department, Asia Region, Infrastructure and
Urban Development Department; NERA; U.S. Department of Energy; Geomet, Inc.
B-l
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Alan Krupnick
1987-1988 Consultant, Office of Technology Assessment, U.S. Congress
1987-1988 Consultant, Viking Systems, Inc.; Exeter Assoc.
1980-1982 Consultant, University of Missouri, State of Maryland
1977-1980 Faculty Research Associate, Bureau of Business & Economic Research, University of
Maryland
1976-1977 Instructor, University of Maryland: International Economics, Macroeconomics, and
Microeconomics
1976-1976 Consultant, National Commission on Water Quality
1974-1976 Autonomous Teaching Assistant, University of Maryland
1972-1974 Research Assistant, Bureau of Business & Economic Research, University of Maryland
1970-1972 Research Assistant, The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
1970-1970 Research Analyst, City University of New York, Faculty Senate
PUBLICATIONS
"Trading Cases: Is trading credits in created markets a better way to reduce pollution and protect natural
resources?" lead article in Environmental Science and Technology, 37 (11) pp. 217-23 June, 2003 (with
Dallas Burtraw, Karen Palmer, Richard Newell, Margaret Walls, Ginny McConnell, Jim Boyd, and Jim
Sanchirico).
"Ancillary benefits of reduced air pollution in the US from moderate greenhouse gas mitigation policies
in the electricity sector," 2003, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 4, ppg. 650-673.
"Exhausting Options: Assessing SIP-Conformity Interactions," 2003. RFFReport (with Harrington and
Nelson, plus Arn Howitt, John Mackler, and Sarah Siwick (March).
"A Consistent Framework for Comparison, Refinement," 2003, Environmental Forum, 20 (2), pg. 44
March/April.
"Valuing Health Effects," 2002, in International Yearbook of Environmental and Resource Economics
2001/2002, H. Folmer and T. Tietenberg, eds. (Kluwer, Amsterdam) (with Anna Alberini)
"The Future of Cost-Benefit Analysis at EPA," 2002. The Annual Review of Public Health 23, 427-48
(with Richard Morgenstern)
"The Value of Reducing Risk of Death: A Policy Perspective," 2002. Journal of Policy Analysis and
Management 21 (2) 275-278.
"Benefits Transfer and the Value of Food Safety," (forthcoming) Proceedings of a Workshop on Valuing
The Health Benefits of Food Safety, sponsored by USEPA, USDA, CDC, FDA, and FSIS, University of
Maryland, September 14, 2000.
"Age, Health and the Willingness to Pay for Mortality Risk Reductions: A Contingent Valuation Survey
of Ontario Residents," 2002. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 24 (2) 161-175 (March) (with Maureen
Cropper, Anna Alberini, Nathalie Simon, Bernie O'Brien, and Ronald Goeree).
"Public Support for Pollution Fee Policies for Motor Vehicles with Revenue Recycling: Survey Results"
2001. Regional Science and Urban Economics Special Issue on Evaluating Policies to Reduce
Transportation Air Pollution, Kenneth Small, ed., v. 31 no. 4 pp. 505-522 (July), (with Winston
Harrington and Anna Alberini)
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Alan Krupnick
"Location Efficient Mortgages: Is the Rationale Sound?," 2001. Journal of Policy Analysis and
Management (with Allen Blackman) 20 (4) 633-650.
Section 8.8 Ancillary Benefits and Costs of Climate Change Mitigation (2001), IPCC Third Assessment
Report, Working Group III (with Devra Davis and Luis Cifuentes).
"How Much Will People Pay for Longevity?" 2001. Resources, Resources for the Future 142 (Winter).
"Overcoming Public Aversion to Congestion Pricing," (2001) (with Winston Harrington and Anna
Alberini) Transportation Research Part A 35 87-105.
"Measuring the Value of Health Improvements from Clean-up in the Great Lakes Region," 2001, (with
Dallas Burtraw), in Revealing the Economic Value of Protecting the Great Lakes, Jay Coggins (ed.),
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Northeast-Midwest Institute.
"The Ancillary Benefits and Costs of Climate Change: A Conceptual Framework," (2000) (with Dallas
Burtraw and Anil Markandya), in the Ancillary Benefits and Costs of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation,
OECD/RFF/WRI/CI, Paris.
"The Ancillary Health Benefits and Costs of GHG Mitigation: Scope, Scale and Credibility," (2000)
(with Devra Davis and George Thurston), in the Ancillary Benefits and Costs of Greenhouse Gas
Mitigation, OECD/RFF/WRI/CI, Paris.
"The Social Costs of Chronic Heart and Lung Disease," (2000) (with Maureen Cropper) in Valuing
Environmental Benefits: Selected Essays of Maureen Cropper, Maureen Cropper, ed. (Edward Elgar;
United Kingdom).
"Cost of Illness and WTP Estimates of the Benefits of Improved Air Quality in Taiwan," 2000, (with
Anna Alberini), Land Economics 76 (1) February.
"Dilemma Downwind: Ozone Blows Across State Lines Creating A Tangle of Regulatory Issues," 1999.
Resources #137 (Fall).
"The Costs and Benefits of Reducing Air Pollutants Related to Acid Rain," 1998, (with Dallas Burtraw,
Erin Mansur, David Austin and Deirdre Farrell), Contemporary Economic Policy, vol. 16 (October),
379-400.
"Air Quality and Episodes of Acute Respiratory Illness in Taiwan Cities: Evidence from Survey Data,"
1998, (with Anna Alberini), Journal of Urban Economics 44(1)68-92.
"Climate Change, Health Risks, and Economics," on Weathervane, May 1998.
"Economic Analysis and the Clean Air Act," 1998. Pace Environmental Law Review 16 (1) 69-80
(winter).
"Transboundary Airshed Management as an Approach to Transboundary Water Cooperation: The Case
of the Chesapeake Bay," (with D. Austin and V. McConnell), in Conflict and Cooperation on
Transboundary Water Resources, R. Just and S. Netanyahu, eds. (Kluwer, Boston) 1998.
"Intel's XL Agreement: Who Benefits," Semiconductor Fabtech, May 1998. (with Jim Boyd and Jan
Mazurek)
"Valuing Health Effects of Air Pollution in Developing Countries: The Case of Taiwan," (with Maureen
Cropper and Anna Alberini) Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, December, 1997.
"Air Pollution and Acute Respiratory Illness; Evidence from Taiwan and Los Angeles," (with Anna
Alberini) American Journal of Agricultural Economics 79, December 1997.
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Alan Krupnick
"Cost-Benefit Analysis and Regulatory Reform," (with Ray Kopp and Michael Toman) Human
Ecological Risk Assessment 3 (5), November 1997.
"Urban Air Pollution in Developing Countries: Problems and Policies," in The Environment and
Emerging Development Issues, P. Dasguptaand K.G. Maler, eds (Clarendon Press, Oxford), 1997.
"Second-Best Adjustments to Externality Estimates in Electricity Planning with Competition," (with
Dallas Burtraw and Karen Palmer) Land Economics 73 (2) 224-239 (May, 1997).
"Transportation and Air Pollution: The Environmental Damages" (with Robert Rowe and Carolyn Lang)
in The Full Social Costs and Benefits of Transportation: Contributions to Theory, Method and
Measurement, D. Greene, D. Jones, and M. Delucchi eds. (Srpinger-Verlag, New York), 1997.
"The Social Costs of Electricity: Do the Numbers Add Up?" (with Dallas Burtraw) Resources and
Energy 18 423-466 (December 1996).
"The Second Best Use of Social Cost Estimates" (with Dallas Burtraw) Resources and Energy 18 467-
489 (December, 1996).
"What is the Value of Reduced Morbidity in Taiwan?" (with Maureen Cropper, Anna Alberini, Tsu-Tan
Fu, Jin-Tan Liu, Daigee Shaw and Winston Harrington), in The Economics of Pollution Control in Asian
Pacific, edited by Robert Mendelsohn and Daigee Shaw, Edgar Elgar Publishing Ltd. (1996).
"Revising the Ozone Standard," (with John Anderson) Resources 125 Fall, 1996.
"Determinants of Diarrheal Disease in Jakarta," (with Anna Alberini, Gunnar Eskeland, and Gordon
McGranahan) Water Resources Research Vol 32, No. 7, 2259-2269, July 1996. Also RFF Discussion
paper 95-23 and World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 1568 (January 1996).
"Air Quality and Electricity: What Competition May Mean," (with Dallas Burtraw and Karen Palmer)
Resources 123 Spring, 1996.
A Shock to the System: Restructuring America's Electricity Industry (with Tim Brennan, Karen Palmer,
Raymond Kopp, Vito Stagliano, Dallas Burtraw) Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C., 1996.
"The Value of Health Benefits From Ambient Air Quality Improvements in Central and Eastern Europe:
An Exercise in Benefits Transfer" (with Kenneth W. Harrison, Eric J. Nickell, and Michael A. Toman),
Environmental and Resource Economics Vol. 7, 307-332, 1996. See also "Estimating the Health
Benefits of Improved Air Quality in Central and Eastern Europe," in Pollution Abatement Strategies in
Central and Eastern Europe, Michael A. Toman, ed., Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C., 1994,
pp.15-24.
The External Costs and Benefits of Fuel Cycles, A Study by the U.S. Department of Energy and the
Commission of the European Communities, prepared by Oak Ridge National Laboratory and Resources
for the Future (McGraw-Hill, Utility Data Institute, New Jersey), (with Russell Lee, Dallas Burtraw, and
others), December 1995.
"Optimal Adders for Environmental Damage by Public Utilities" (with Dallas Burtraw, Winston
Harrington, and A. Myrick Freeman III), Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, vol. 29,
no. 1, July 1995.
"Social Costing of Electricity in Maryland: Effects on Pollution, Investment and Prices," The Energy
Journal, 16, 1- 26, (1995) (with Karen Palmer, Hadi Dowlatabadi and Stuart Siegel).
"The Social Costing Debate: Issues and Resolutions" (with Dallas Burtraw, A. Myrick Freeman III, and
Winston Harrington), in Social Costs of Energy, O. Hohmeyer and R. Ottinger, eds., Springer-Verlag,
1994.
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Alan Krupnick
"The Evaluation of External Costs from Energy Sources: The EC-US Fuel Cycle Study" (with A.
Markandya, R. Lee, and P. Valette), in Power Generation Choices: Costs, Risks and Externalities,
Nuclear Energy Agency Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris, France, 1994.
"The External Costs of Nuclear Power: Ex Ante Damages and Lay Risks" (with A. Markandya and E.
Nickell), American Journal of Agricultural Economics, vol. 75, 1993, pp. 1273-1279.
"Global Warming and Urban Smog: The Cost-Effectiveness of CAFE Standards and Alternative Fuels"
(with Margaret Walls and Carol T. Collins), The Energy Journal, October 1993.
"Controlling Urban Air Pollution: A Benefit-Cost Assessment" (with Paul R. Portney), in Economics of
the Environment: Selected Readings, Third Edition, Robert Dorfman and Nancy S. Dorfman, eds., W.W.
Norton & Company, Inc., New York, N.Y., 1993, pp. 421-437.
"Air Pollution and Respiratory Morbidity among Adults in Southern California" (with Bart D. Ostro,
Michael J. Lipsett, Jennifer K. Mann, and Winston Harrington), American Journal of Epidemiology,
vol. 137, no. 7 (April 1, 1993), pp. 691-700.
Measuring the Effects of Urban Transportation Policies on the Environment: A Survey of Models, Policy
Research Working Paper WPS-1030, Country Economics Department, The World Bank, November
1992.
"The Economic Losses of a Waterborne Disease Outbreak" (with Winston Harrington, and Walter O.
Spofford, Jr.), in The Economics of the Environment, Wallace E. Oates, ed., Edward Elgar Publishing
Company, Aldershot, Hants., England, and Brookfield, Vt., 1992, pp. 411-432.
"Weighing Environmental Externalities: How to Do It Right" (with A. Myrick Freeman III, Dallas Burtraw,
and Winston Harrington), The Electricity Journal, vol. 5, no. 7 (August/September 1992), pp. 18-25.
"Externality Adders: A Response to Joskow" (with A. Myrick Freeman III), The Electricity Journal,
vol. 5, no. 7 (August/September 1992), pp. 61-63.
"Electric Vehicles and the Air Pollution in Los Angeles" (with A. Ted Russell and Hadi Dowlatabadi),
Energy and Environment, vol. 3, no. 2, 1992.
"Vehicle Emissions, Urban Smog, and Clean Air Policy," in Richard Gilbert, ed., The Economics of Oil,
Kluwer-Nijhoff, The Netherlands, 1992.
"Cost-Effectiveness of Methanol for Reducing Vehicle Emissions and Urban Ozone" (with Margaret
Walls), Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, vol. 11, no. 3, Summer 1992, pp. 373-376.
"Using Cost-Benefit Analysis to Prioritize Environmental Problems in Developing Countries," in Joel
Darmstadter, ed., Global Development and the Environment, Resources for the Future, Washington,
DC., 1992.
"The Effect of Information on Health Risk Valuation" (with Maureen Cropper), Journal of Risk and
Uncertainty, vol. 5, pp. 29-48, 1992.
"Controlling Urban Air Pollution: A Benefit Cost Assessment" (1991) (with Paul Portney), Science, vol.
252, April 26, pp. 522-28.
"Transportation and Urban Air Pollution in Developed and Developing Countries," Transportation
Research Record, p. 1312, Energy and Environmental Issues, 1991.
The Economics of a Waterborne Disease Outbreak (with Walter O. Spofford, Jr. and Winston
Harrington), Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C., 1991.
"The Benefits of Curbing Acid Rain" (with Winston Harrington and Sari Radin), in Richard Ottinger,
ed., Environmental Costs of Electricity, Oceana Publications, New York, 1990.
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"Ambient Ozone and Acute Health Effects: Evidence from Daily Data" (with Winston Harrington and
Bart Ostro), Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 18, 1990, pp. 1-18.
"To Live and Breath in L.A." (with Paul Portney, David Harrison, and Hadi Dowlatabadi), Issues in
Science & Technology, vol. 4, no. 4, 1989.
"The Benefits and Costs of Superfund Cleanups: An Information Assessment," Project IV (with Paul
Portney), in Coalition on Superfund Research Report, for Coalition on Superfund and Center for
Hazardous Waste Management, Chicago, 111., September 1989.
"The Economic Losses from a Waterborne Disease Outbreak" (with Walter O. Spofford, Jr. and Winston
Harrington), Journal of Urban Economics, vol. 25, no. 1, January 1989.
"Social Costs of Chronic Heart and Lung Disease" (with Maureen Cropper), Resources, no. 97, Fall
1989.
"The Acute Health Benefits of Ambient Ozone Control," Appendix to Catching Our Breath: Next Step
for Reducing Urban Ozone, Office of Technology Assessment, U.S. Congress, July 1989.
"Reducing Bay Nutrients: An Economic Perspective," Maryland Law Review, vol. 47, no. 2, Winter
1988.
"Economics and the Ambient Ozone Standard," Resources, no. 92, Summer 1988.
"Agricultural Policy and the Benefits of Ozone Control" (with Raymond Kopp), Journal of the American
Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 69, no. 5, December 1987.
"Sources of Uncertainty in Economic Analyses of Management Strategies for Controlling Groundwater
Contamination" (with Walter O. Spofford, Jr.), Journal of the American Agricultural Economics
Association, Proceedings, December 1986, pp. 1234-1239.
Rules In The Making: A Statistical Analysis Of Regulatory Agency Behavior (with Wesley Magat and
Winston Harrington), Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C., 1986.
"Managing the Chesapeake Bay Cleanup: A Modeling Approach," in The Economics of Chesapeake Bay
Management, prepared by Mark E. Jacoby, A Maryland Sea Grant Publication, University of Maryland,
College Park, 1986.
"Short-Term Nitrogen Dioxide Exposure and Acute Respiratory Disease in Children" (with Winston
Harrington), Journal of the Air Pollution Control Association 35, 1985, pp. 1061-1067.
"Evaluation of Nonpoint Source Pollution Control Policies" (with Henry Peskin and Winston
Harrington), Journal of Soil and Water Conservation 40, 1985, pp. 27-32.
"The Chesapeake Bay Cleanup," Resources, no. 79, Winter 1985. (Reprinted in Renewable Resources
Journal, vol. 3, no. 2, Spring 1985.)
"Synergistic Effects on Rat Lungs of Mixtures of Oxidant Pollutants and Respirable Aerosols: A
Comment" (with Robert Frank), American Review of Respiratory Disease 129, May 1984.
"On Marketable Air-Pollution Permits: The Case for a System of Pollution Offsets" (with Wallace E.
Oates and Eric Van De Verg), Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 10, 1983, pp. 233-
247.
"Revealed Rules for Regulatory Decisions: An Empirical Analysis of EPA Rulemaking Behavior" (with
Wesley Magat and Winston Harrington), in International Comparisons in Implementing Laws, Paul
Downing and Kenneth Hanf, eds., Kluwer-Nijhoff, 1983.
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Directory of Environmental Asset Data Bases and Valuation Studies (with David Y ardas, Henry M.
Peskin, and Winston Harrington), Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C., November 1982.
"On Marketable Air Pollution Permits" (with Wallace E. Oates and Eric Van De Verg), in Buying A
Better Environment: Cost-Effective Regulation Through Permit Trading, Erhard F. Joeres and Martin H.
David, eds., Land Economics Monograph No. 6, University of Wisconsin Sea Grant, 1982.
"Stationary Source Pollution Policy and Prospects for Reform" (with Winston Harrington), in
Environmental Regulation and the U.S. Economy, Henry Peskin, Paul R. Portney, and Allen V. Kneese,
eds., Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C., 1981.
"Setting Regulatory Priorities" (with Anthony Fisher and Allen R. Ferguson), in Attacking Regulatory
Problems: An Agenda for Research in the 1980s, Allen R. Ferguson, ed., Ballinger, Cambridge, MA,
1981.
"Variable Rate Mortgages: Boon or Bane?" Business Review, The Federal Reserve Bank of
Philadelphia, September 1972.
"SDRs: Super-Duper Reserve?" Business Review, The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, July 1971.
CONFERENCE PAPERS
"Economic Uncertainties in Valuing Reductions in Children's Environmental Health Risks," paper
presented at the Annual meetings of the American Agricultural Economics Association, Montreal,
Canada, July 27-30, 2003 (with Sandra Hoffmann, and Vic Adamowicz, University of Alberta, Canada).
"Effects of Urban Density on Vehicle Use and Ownership," paper presented to the annual meetings of the
American Economics Association, Atlanta, GA, January 5-7, 2002 (with Margaret Walls and Winston
Harrington)
"Mortality Risk Valuation: A Survey of U.S. Residents," Paper prepared for presentation to the CORILA
Conference on Economic Valuation of Environmental Goods, Venice, May 11, 2001 (Anna Alberini).
"Mortality Risk Valuation: A Survey of U.S. Residents," Paper prepared for presentation to The National
Bureau of Economic Research Summer Workshop, July 2001.
Benefits Transfer and the Value of Food Safety, presentation at Valuing the Health Benefits of Food
Safety, sponsored by USDA, CDC, FDA, FSIS, EPA, University of Maryland, September 14, 2000.
The Ancillary Benefits and Costs of Climate Change: A Conceptual Framework (with Dallas Burtraw
and Anil Markandya), at the ICC/RFF/OECD Expert Workshop on the Ancillary Benefits and Costs of
Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Strategies, Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C., March 27-29, 2000.
The Ancillary Health Benefits and Costs of GHG Mitigation: Scope, Scale and Credibility (with Devra
Davis and George Thurston), at the ICC/RFF/OECD Expert Workshop on the Ancillary Benefits and
Costs of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Strategies, Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C., March 27-
29, 2000.
What are OlderPeople Willing to Pay to Reduce Their Mortality Risks, paper presented at the American
Economics Association Annual Meeting, Boston, MA, January 7-9, 2000 (with Maureen Cropper, Anna
Alberini, and Nathalie Simon). Also Presented at Harvard School of Public Health, University of
Pennsylvania, and the North Carolina State Economics Seminar Series, Raleigh, NC.
Incentives to Reduce NOx Emissions with Joint Benefits, paper given at the AERE Economics Incentive
Workshop, Cambridge, July 19-20, 1999 (with Virginia McConnell).
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"Mortality Risk Valuation: Evidence from a Contingent Valuation Survey," (forthcoming) (With
Maureen Cropper, Anna Alberini, Nathalie Simon, Kenshi Itaoka), Proceedings of an Expert Workshop
on Mortality Risk Valuation, USEPA., March 1999.
"A New Paradigm for Mortality Valuation," (with Maureen Cropper, Anna Alberini, Bob Belli, and
Nathalie Simon), paper presented at the International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and
Management PSAM IV, Grand Hyatt Hotel, New York City, September 13-18, 1998. Paper also
presented at the World Congress of Environmental And Resource Economists, Venice, Italy, June 1998.
"Mortality and Stated Preference Methods: An Exploratory Study," (with Maureen Cropper, Anna
Alberini, Bob Belli, and Nathalie Simon), paper presented at the Southern Economics Association
Annual Meeting, Atlanta, GA, November 1997.
"The Costs and Benefits of Title IV: An Integrated Assessment with the Total Analysis Framework,"
(with Dallas Burtraw), paper presented at the Air and Waste Management Specialty Conference: Acid
Rain and Electric Utilities II, Phoenix, AZ, January 1997.
"Mobile Sources and Air Pollution Policy: International Experience and Recommendations for Bogota,
Colombia," (with Virgina McConnell and Eduardo Uribe Utero), presented at Environmental and Natural
Resource Issues in Colombia, Hosted by the Colombian Department of State Planning, Bogota,
September 1996.
"The Social Costs of Electricity: Do the Numbers Add Up?" (with Dallas Burtraw), presented at the
meeting of the Allied Social Science Associations, San Francisco, CA, January 1996.
"The Social Benefits of Social Costing Research," (with Dallas Burtraw and Karen Palmer), presented at
the Workshop on the External Costs of Energy, sponsored by the European Commission and the OECD,
Brussels, January 30-31, 1995.
"Valuing Health Effects of Air Pollution in Developing Countries: The Case of Taiwan," presented at the
meeting of the Allied Social Science Associations, Washington, D.C., January 1995 (with Anna Alberini
and Maureen Cropper).
"Air Quality and the Value of Health in Taiwan" (with Anna Alberini, Maureen Cropper, and Winston
Harrington), presented at a meeting of the Eastern Economics Association, Boston, MA, March 1994.
"Airborne Health Damages and Environmental Priority Setting in Central and Eastern Europe" (with
Kenneth Harrison, Eric Nickell, and Michael A. Toman), presented at the meeting of the Allied Social
Science Associations, Boston, MA, January 1994.
"Electric Utility Planning in the Presence of Externalities" (with Dallas Burtraw and Karen Palmer),
presented at the Conference on Market Approaches to Environmental Protection, sponsored by Stanford
University, December 1993.
"Social Costing of a Mid-Atlantic Electric Utility: Implications for Electricity Supply, Energy Demand,
and Air Emissions" (with Karen Palmer, Hadi Dowlatabadi, and Stuart Siegel), presented at the annual
meeting of the Southern Economics Association, New Orleans, LA, November 1993.
"Toward an Integrated Theory of International Trade and Environmental Policies" (with Arvind
Panagariya, Karen Palmer, and Wallace E. Oates), presented at the American Economic Association
Annual Meetings, Anaheim, CA, January 5-7, 1993. Also issued as RFF Discussion Paper QE93-07,
"Toward an Integrated Theory of Open Economy Environmental and Trade Policy," Washington, D.C.,
June 1993.
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"The Social Costs of Fuel Cycles: Lessons Learned," presented at the AERE Sessions of the American
Economic Association Annual Meetings, Anaheim, Calif., January 5-7, 1993. Resources for the Future
Discussion Paper QE93-04, Washington, D.C., January 1993.
"Benefit Transfer and Social Costing," in Benefit Transfer: Procedures, Problems, and Research Needs,
Proceedings of a 1992 Association of Environmental and Resource Economists Workshop, Snowbird,
UT, June 3-5, 1992.
"Incentive Policies for Industrial Pollution Control in China," presented at the American Economic
Association Annual Meetings, New Orleans, LA, January 2-5, 1992.
"The Social Costs of Electricity: How Much of the Camel to Let in Under the Tent," presented at the
Annual Conference of the National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissions, Williamsburg, Va.,
December 1991. Resources for the Future Discussion Paper QE92-15 (with Dallas Burtraw),
Washington, D.C., April 1992.
"Transportation and Air Pollution in Urban Areas of Developed and Developing Countries," presented at
the 70th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., January 13-17, 1991.
"Air Pollution in Urban Areas of Developing Countries: Problems and Solutions," presented at
Environment and Development, a United Nations University Conference, Helsinki, Finland, September
3-7, 1990. Resources for the Future Discussion Paper QE91-14, Washington, D.C., October 1991.
"The Cost-effectiveness of Methanol Vehicles" (with Margaret Walls), presented at the American
Economic Association/AERE Annual Meetings, Washington, D.C., December 26-28, 1990.
"The Effect of Information on Health Risk Valuations" (with Maureen Cropper), presented at the
American Economic Association/AERE Annual Meetings, Atlanta, GA, December 28-30, 1989;
Resources for the Future Discussion Paper QE90-13.
"The Social Costs of Chronic Heart and Lung Disease" (with Maureen Cropper), presented at AERE
Workshop, May 1989; Resources for the Future Discussion Paper QE89-16.
"Tradable Nutrient Permits and the Chesapeake Bay Compact," presented at the American Economic
Association/AERE Annual Meetings, NY, December 28-30, 1988; Resources for the Future Discussion
Paper QE89-07.
"Uncertainties in Estimates of the Cost and Benefits of Groundwater Remediation: Results of a Cost-
Benefit Analysis" (with Walter Spofford and Eric F. Wood), presented at the Water Resources Research
Conference, December 1988; Resources for the Future Discussion Paper QE89-15.
"Economics and Nutrient Management in the Chesapeake Bay," presented at the Annual Conference on
the Economics of Chesapeake Bay Management, Baltimore, MD, May 23-25, 1988.
"The Temporal and Spatial Control of Ambient Ozone," presented at the Annual Meeting of the Air
Pollution Control Association, Dallas, TX, June 20-24, 1988.
"Reducing Bay Nutrients: An Economic Perspective," presented at the Symposium on the Chesapeake
Bay, Maryland School Of Law, Baltimore, MD, October 14, 1987.
"Agricultural Policy and the Benefits of Ozone Control," presented at the Annual Meeting of the
American Agricultural Economics Association, East Lansing, MI, August 2-5, 1987.
"Air Pollution and Environmental Policy: The Case of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards for
Photochemical Oxidants," presented at the American Economics Association Conference, New Orleans,
La., December 28-30, 1986.
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"Air Pollution and Acute Health Effects: New Evidence" (with Winston Harrington), presented at the
Environmental Law Institute-Environmental Protection Agency Joint Seminar Series, November 20,
1986.
"Estimating the Uncertainties in the Benefits of Management Strategies for Controlling Groundwater
Contamination," presented at the Annual Meeting of the Society for Risk Analysis, Boston, MA,
November 10, 1986.
"Lung Function as a Risk Factor for Acute Respiratory Disease: An Epidemiological Study" (with Winston
Harrington), presented at the Air Pollution Control Association Conference, Detroit, MI, June 1985.
"Managing the Chesapeake Bay Clean-Up: A Modeling Approach," presented at the Eighth Biennial
International Estuarine Research Conference, Durham, NH, July 1985.
"Air Pollution and Acute Respiratory Disease in Children: A Micro-epidemiological Analysis" (with
Winston Harrington), presented to the Association of Environmental and Resources Economists at the
American Economic Association Conference, Dallas, TX, December 1984.
"What Makes EPA Run? An Empirical Analysis of EPA Rulemaking Behavior," presented to the
Conference on Implementation of Environmental Regulation: International Comparisons, Berlin,
October 1981.
"Equity and Efficiency in the Promulgation of Federal Regulations: The Case of EPA's Effluent
Discharge Standards" (with Winston Harrington), presented at the American Economic Association
Conference, Denver, CO, September 1980.
"On the Design of a Market for Air Pollution Rights: The Spatial Problem" (with Wallace Oates),
presented at the Western Economics Association Conference, San Diego, CA, June 1980.
"Regulatory Rulemaking in Theory and Practice: The Case of EPA's Effluent Guidelines" (with Wesley
A. Magat and Winston Harrington), presented at Western Economic Association Conference, San Diego,
CA, June 1980.
"An Economic-Environmental Planning Manual for Counties, States, and Metropolitan Areas" (with J.H.
Cumberland), BBER Working Paper #1, presented at the Regional Science Association Meetings,
November 11, 1977.
RECENT TESTIMONY
Testimony on the Performance of the Clean Air Act, before the House Subcommittee on Energy and Air
Quality, Committee on Energy and Commerce, May 1, 2002.
Testimony on the Proposed NAAQS for Ozone and PM (Panel I), before the Subcommitttee on Clean
Air, Wetlands, Private Property, and Nuclear Safety, Senate Committee on Environment and Public
Works, April 24, 1997.
Testimony on Implementation of the Proposed NAAQS for Ozone and PM (Panel II), before the
Subcommitttee on Clean Air, Wetlands, Private Property, and Nuclear Safety, Senate Committee on
Environment and Public Works, April 24, 1997.
Testimony on Implementation and Enforcement of the Clean Air Act, before the Subcommitttee on
Health and the Environment and the Subcommittee on Oversight, House Commerce Committee,
November 9, 1995.
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Testimony on Regulatory Reform bills in Congress, provided to the U.S. Senate Governmental Affairs
Committee, March 8, 1995.
RECENT PRESENTATIONS
The WTP for Delayed Mortality Risk Reductions (with Maureen Cropper, Anna Alberini, and Nathalie
Simon), for presentation to the Second World Congress of Environmental and Natural Resource
Economists, Monterrey, CA, June 29, 2002.
Ancillary Carbon Reductions from S02 Reductions in China: Results of a Survey (with Richard
Morgenstern), prepared for the US EPA, June 2002, for presentation to the Second World Congress of
Environmental and Natural Resource Economists, Monterrey, CA, June 29, 2002.
Source-Receptor Relationships for Ozone and PM2.5 in the Eastern U.S. (with Ted Russell, Michelle
Bergin and Jhih-Shyang Shih) for presentation to the Second World Congress of Environmental and
Natural Resource Economists, Monterrey, CA, June 29, 2002.
"The Effect of Risk and Individual Characteristics on the Willingness to Pay for Mortality Risk
Reductions," presented at Economic Valuation of Health for Environmental Policy: Assessing
Alternative Approaches, University of Central Florida, March 18-19, 2002. Sponsored by the USEPA.
"Power Plants and Clean Air: Proposed Reforms of the Clean Air Act," SAIS Energy/Environment
Seminar Series, Washington, D.C. March, 2002.
"Approaches to Estimating the Value of Statistical Life," Department of Transportation Briefing,
February 21' 2002.
"Factors Affecting the Willingness to Pay for Mortality Risk Reductions," presented at an EPA-
sponsored conference on the Valuation of Mortality Risks, Silver Spring, MD, November 2001.
Gave RFF Wednesday Seminar Series talk: Mortality Risk Valuation in the Context of Air Pollution,
March 2001 (with Anna Alberini)
"Age, Health and the Willingness to Pay for Mortality Risk Reductions," presented at Harvard School of
Public Health (February 2001) (Cropper)
"Age, Health and the Willingness to Pay for Mortality Risk Reductions," presented at The Measurement
and Economic Valuation of the Health Effects of Air Pollution, A symposium sponsored by the UK
Department of the Environment, Transportation, and Regions, London, February 19-20, 2001.
"Age, Health and the Willingness to Pay for Mortality Risk Reductions," invited paper presented to the
MacMaster University School of Public Health, Ontario, Canada, December 2000.
"Age, Health and the Willingness to Pay for Mortality Risk Reductions," Workshop on the Value of
Mortality and Morbidity, Brussels, Belgium, November 13, 2000.
"The Ancillary Benefits and Costs of Climate Change Mitigation," given at the Fifth Annual Global
Climate Change Research Seminar, Electric Power Research Institute, Wyndham City Center Hotel,
Washington, D.C., May 17-18, 2000.
"Methods for estimating ancillary benefits of climate change mitigation" given at Methods Development
for Estimating Ancillary Benefits of Climate Mitigation, sponsored by various Canadian government
agencies: Calgary, Canada, May 3-4, 1999.
"Mortality risk valuation in adults," at EPA-NSFHealth Valuation Workshop, Arlington, VA, March 15-
16, 1999.
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"Environmental Effects of Electric Vehicles Charged at Night," at Transportation Research Board
Annual Conference, Washington, D.C. January, 1999..
"Health risks and valuation in Ukraine" to World Bank staff and Ukrainian visitors, November 1998.
"Assumptions for Estimating Ancillary Benefits of Climate Policy," presented at Climate Change
Economic Analysis Forum's Workshop: Critical Assumptions: What Matters... What Doesn't, Chateau
Cartier Hotel, Aylmer, Quebec, October 1998.
"Incentives for Mobile Source Pollution Control," presented before the National Advisory Council on
Environmental Policy and Technology, of the EPA Office of Reinvention, Sheraton Hotel, Washington,
DC, September 1998.
"Research Needs for Cost-Benefit Analysis of Air Quality Standards," presented at the Annual Meeting
of the American Association of Agricultural Economics, Salt Lake City, UT, August 3, 1998.
"Environmental Economics," lectures given at the World Bank's Environmental Economics for
Development Policy Course, July 8, 1998.
"Chesapeake Bay and Control of NOx Emissions: A Policy Analysis," presented at the Duke-RTI
Environmental and Resource Economics Seminar Series, RTI, NC, June 4, 1998.
"Research Needs for Better Cost-Benefit Analyses," presented at the North Carolina State Economics
Seminar Series, Raleigh, NC, June 3, 1998.
"Mortality Risk Valuation," presented at the Executive Branch Economics Interagency Work Group, Old
Executive Office Building, April 7, 1998.
"Mortality Risk Valuation," at EPA/NSF Partnership Conference, RFR Conservation Center, April 2-3,
1998.
"Economic and Legal Issues Associated with the Ambient Air Quality Standards for Ozone and
Particulates," presented at Pace University Law School Colloquium: Science and Public Policy: New
Ambient Air Quality Standards Under the Clean Air Act, White Plains, NY, February 27, 1998.
"Estimating the Benefits of Environmental Improvements," presented to MITI, Tokyo, Japan, January 22,
1998.
"The Social Costs of Transportation," presentation at the Annual Meeting of the Transportation research
Board, Washington, D.C., January 15, 1998.
"The Economics of Environmental Health Improvements: Background Document," for the World Health
Organization Workshop, London, June 15, 1997.
"The Costs and Benefits of the Proposed Air Quality Standards," Air Pollution Policy: Symposium on
EPA's Proposed Standards for Ozone and Particulates, Resources for the future, February 10, 1997.
"Cost-Benefit Analysis and the Proposed Standards for Ozone and PM," Kennedy School of
Government, Continuing Education Program, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, March, 1997.
"The Proposed Ozone and PM Standards: Economic Issues," Massachusetts Institute of Technology,
March 1997.
"Reforming Superfund: Risk Assessment, Cost-effectiveness, and Cost-benefit Analysis," given at the
Cost-Benefit Analysis Workshop, OSWER, EPA, Washington, D.C., March 22, 1995.
"Risk Tradeoffs in Superfund Policy," given at a symposium: Weighing the Risks, Washington, D.C.,
March 30-31, 1995.
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"Environmental Policy and the Contract with America," presentation for the LaFollette Institute of Public
Affairs, Madison, WI, April 20, 1995.
"The Future of Environmental Policy," presentation for the Energy Forum, New York, NY, May 17,
1995.
"The Air Pollution Costs of Transportation: Literature Review and Issues," presented at the DOT
Workshop on the Social Costs of Transportation, Irvine, CA, July 5-7, 1995.
REPORTS/DISCUSSION PAPERS
Ancillary Carbon reductions from S02 Reductions in China: Results of a Survey (with Richard
Morgenstern), prepared for the US EPA, June 2002.
Source-Receptor Relationships for Ozone and PM2.5 in the Eastern U.S. (with Ted Russell, Michelle
Bergin and Jhih-Shyang Shih) submitted to Nature, June 2002.
Costs and Benefits of Fish Consumption Advisory for Mercury in the Chesapeake Bay, June 2002 (with
Paul Jakus and Megan McGuinness, for Maryland Department of Natural Resources.
Mortality Risk Valuation In the U.S. and Canada, (forthcoming Discussion Paper) (with Maureen
Cropper, Nathalie Simon, Anna Alberini, Joseph Cook). (3282)
A Review of the Socio-Economic Models and Related Components Supporting the Development of
Canada-Wide Standards (CWS) for Particulate Matter (PM) and Ozone, 2001, An Expert Panel Report
prepared at the request of The Royal Society of Canada (with eight other experts) (June). (3013)
Draft Inception Report, Shanxi Air Quality Development Project, 2001 (with Morgenstern, Zhang,
others) submitted to the Asian Development Bank (June). (3953)
"Best Things First: Setting Solutions-Based Priorities and EPA," RFF Discussion Paper (with Peter
Nelson and J. Clarence Davies).
Cost-Effective NOx Control in the Eastern United States, RFF Discussion Paper DP-00-18 (with Virginia
McConnell., 2000 (submitted to JEEM).
"RAINS-ASIA: A Critique and Guide to Future Research," (with Dallas Burtraw), Technical Paper for
the World Bank, November 3, 1999.
"Summary of the Science of Acidification in the Adirondack Park," (with Joe Cook, Anthony Paul,
Terrell Stoessell, and Dallas Burtraw), 2000.
Location Efficiency and Mortgage Default, RFF Discussion Paper DP-99-49REV (with Allen Blackman),
2000.
Cost-Effective Pollution Control With Joint Benefits: NOx Emissions and the Chesapeake Bay, to be
submitted to Water Resources Research (with Virginia McConnell), 2000.
Mortality Risk Valuation: Survey Approach, Alan Krupnick, Maureen Cropper, Bernie O'Brian, Ronald
Goree, Nathalie Simon, Liz Futo, Martin Heintzelman, for Health Canada, Ontario, Canada, March 31,
1999.
"The Benefits of Air Pollutant Emissions Reductions in Maryland: Results from the Maryland
Externalities Screening and Valuation Model," (with David Austin, Dallas Burtraw, and Terrell
Stoessell), October 1998, RFF Discussion Paper 99-05 (submitted to Land Economics).
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Mortality Risk Valuation and Contingent Valuation Methods: A Pilot Survey in Japan (with Kenshi
Itaoka, Okubo Satomi, Takashi Fujii, Makoto Akai, Noboru Nomura, Alan Krupnick, and Nathalie Simon
(in English and Japanese), June 1998.
"The Chesapeake Bay and NOx Control: A Policy Analysis," (with Ginny McConnell, David Austin,
Matt Cannon, Terrell Stoessell, and Brian Morton, prepared for USEPA and the Chesapeake Bay
Program, June 1998. RFF Discussion Paper 98-46.
"Evaluation of CMAQ Projects," (with Farrell and Harrington) RFF Discussion Paper 98-18.
"Intel's XL Permit: A Framework for Evaluation," (with Boyd and Mazurek) RFF Discussion Paper 98-
11.
"Public Support for Congestion Fee Policies for Motor Vehicles: Survey Results," working paper (with
Harrington and Alberini), RFF Discussion Paper 98-27.
"Energy, Transportation and Environment: Policy Options for Environmental Improvements," paper for
the World Bank (with Harrington).
"Mobile Sources and Air Pollution Policy: International Experience and Recommendations for Bogota,
Colombia," (with Virgina McConnell and Eduardo Uribe Utero).
"Examining the Relationships Between Urban Density, Transit Availability, and Vehicle Travel: Results
from a Nested Logit Model of Vehicle Choice," (with Harrington and Walls). Paper to be presented at
the Australian Economics Association, September 1998.
"The Competitive Implications of Facility-specific Environmental Agreements: The Intel Corporation's
Project XL," (with Boyd and Mazurek), submitted for inclusion in Environmental Regulation and Market
Structure, Edward Elgar.
Health and Environmental Impacts assessment Panel Report, Sulphur in Fuels Study. For the
Government Working Group, chaired by Environment Canada.
"The Economics of Environmental Health Improvements: Background Document," for the World Health
Organization, June 15, 1997
"Cost-Benefit Analysis and Regulatory Reform: An Assessment of the Science and the Art," (with Ray
Kopp and Michael Toman) in Risk Assessment and Risk Management in Regulatory Decision-Making,
the Presidential Commission on Risk Assessment and Risk Management, Washington, D.C., June 1997.
"The Health Benefits of Reducing Ozone and Particulate Matter Concentrations in the Dallas-Fort Worth
Area," with Deirdre Farrell, prepared for the Environmental Defense Fund, Austin, TX, June 2, 1997.
"Summary of the Literature Review on Environmental Externalities from Electricity Generation in
Maryland," (with Gar Ragland, David Austin, Dallas Burtraw, Deirdre Farrell, and Erin Mansur),
prepared for the Maryland Power Plant Research Program, State of Maryland, Annapolis, MD, January
1997.
"Public Support for Congestion and Pollution Fee Policies for Motor Vehicles: Survey Results" (with
Winston Harrington) Report to REACH (Reduce Emissions And Congestion on Highways) Task Force,
Southern California Association of Governments, October 1996.
"Air Quality and Episodes of Acute Respiratory Illness in Taiwan Cities: Evidence from Survey Data
(with Anna Alberini), Department of Economics , University of Colorado Discussion Paper 96-30;
submitted to Journal of Urban Economics, October 1996.
"Six Steps to a Healthier Ozone Policy," (With Deirdre Farrell) RFF Discussion Paper 96-2.
"Environment and Transportation Issues in Bangkok, Thailand," for Asia Division, World Bank, 1995.
B-14
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Alan Krupnick
Benefit-Cost Analysis and Nuclear Waste Site Cleanups: The Historical and Ethical Context, RFF
Discussion Paper 95-22 (with Allen Kneese), 1995.
Social Costing of Electricity in Maryland: Implications for Electricity Supply Energy Demand and Air
Emissions, report to the Maryland Department of Natural Resources Power Plant Research Program
(September 1994) (with Alan Krupnick, Hadi Dowlatabadi and Stuart Siegel).
"An Analysis of Alternative Approaches to Implementing Social Costing of Electricity in Maryland"
(with Hadi Dowlatabadi, Karen Palmer, and Stuart Siegel), RFF Discussion Paper 94-39, July 1994.
"Estimating the Demand for Vehicle-Miles-Traveled Using Household Survey Data: Results from the
1990 Nationwide Personal transportation Survey" (with Margaret Walls and Carter Hood) RFF
Discussion Paper ENR 93-25, September 1993.
"The Distributional and Environmental Implications of an Increase in the Federal Gasoline Tax," (with
Margaret Walls) RFF Discussion Paper ENR93-24, September 1993.
"The External Costs of Nuclear Power: Ex Ante Damages and Lay Risks" (with Anil Markandya and
Eric Nickell), RFF Discussion Paper QE93-28, September 1993.
"Bridging the Gap between State and Federal Social Costing" (with Dallas Burtraw), RFF Discussion
Paper QE93-19, September 1993.
"Some Simple Analytics of Social Costing in a Regulated Industry" (with Dallas Burtraw, Winston
Harrington, and A. Myrick Freeman III), RFF Discussion Paper QE93-13, April 1993; revised November
1993.
"Benefit Transfer and Social Costing," RFF Discussion Paper QE92-21, September 1992.
"The Social Costs of Electricity: How Much of the Camel to Let into the Tent?" (with Dallas Burtraw),
RFF Discussion Paper QE92-15, April 1992.
"Accounting for Environmental Costs in Electric Utility Resource Supply Planning" (with A. Myrick
Freeman III, Dallas Burtraw, and Winston Harrington), RFF Discussion Paper QE92-14, April 1992.
"Global Warming and Urban Smog: The Cost Effectiveness of CAFE Standards and Alternative Fuels"
(with Margaret A. Walls and Carol T. Collins), RFF Discussion Paper ENR92-13.
"Vehicle Emissions, Urban Smog, and Clean Air Policy," RFF Discussion Paper QE92-09, February
1992.
"Modeling Issues in Vehicle Transportation and Environment," report to Public Economics Division,
World Bank, January 1992.
"Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Alternative Fuels" (with Margaret Walls, Sari Radin, Carol Collins,
and Joel Darmstadter), report to Office of Policy Analysis, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, June
1991.
"Urban Air Pollution in Developing Countries: Problems and Policies," RFF Discussion Paper QE91-14,
June 1991.
"The Environmental Costs of Electricity: A Methodology Critique," Special Report, March 1991.
"China Environmental Strategy Paper," report to Asia Department, World Bank, 1991.
"Electric Vehicles and the Environment: Consequences for Emissions and Air Quality in Los Angeles
and U.S. Regions" (with Hadi Dowlatabadi and A. Ted Russell), RFF Discussion Paper QE91-01,
October 1990; report to Electric Power Research Institute, October 1990.
B-15
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Alan Krupnick
"Infrastructure and Environment: Problems and Policies" (with Winston Harrington), report to
Infrastructure and Urban Development Department, World Bank, October 1990.
"The Cost-effectiveness and Energy Security Benefits of Methanol Vehicles" (with Michael A. Toman
and Margaret A. Walls), report to Office of Policy Planning and Evaluation, U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency, August 1990; RFF Discussion Paper QE90-25, September 1990.
"Emissions Trading in the Electric Utility Industry" (with Douglas Bohi, Dallas Burtraw, and Charles
Stalon), report to Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
February 1990; RFF Discussion Paper QE90-15, March 1990.
"Ethanol Fuel & Non-Market Benefits: Is a Subsidy Justified?," RFF Discussion Paper ENR89-07,
August 1989.
"Air Pollution in Beijing, China: A Case Study," World Bank Desk Report, July 1989.
"A Health Benefit Analysis of Reductions in Photochemical Oxidants in the Northeastern United States,"
Final Report to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, December 1988.
"Preliminary Analysis of the Benefits of Alternative Strategies for the Control of Photochemical
Oxidants," for U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, September 1986.
"The Benefits of Preventing an Outbreak of Giardiasis Due to Drinking Water Contamination" (with
Walter Spofford and Winston Harrington), for U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, June 1985.
"Maternal Work Status and Childhood Illness: Evidence from CHESS" (with Winston Harrington), RFF
Discussion Paper QE85-06, October 1984.
"Respirable Particulates and Acute Respiratory Disease in Children" (with Winston Harrington), for U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency, October 1984; RFF Discussion Paper QE85-02.
"Benefits Analysis of Alternative National Ambient Air Quality Standards for Photochemical Oxidants:
Phase I Report," for U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, September 1984.
"Air Pollution and Lung Function in Children" (with Winston Harrington), for U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency, July 1984; RFF Discussion Paper QE84-12.
"Assessment of Nonpoint Source Pollution Control Policies" (with Henry Peskin and Winston
Harrington), report prepared for the Office of Policy, Planning, and Evaluation, U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency, March 1984.
"Acute Respiratory Disease and Exposure to NO2: Construction of Exposure-Response Functions Using
CHESS Data from Chattanooga, Tennessee" (with Winston Harrington), report prepared for Office of
Policy and Resource Management, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, October 1983.
"Assessment of the Chattanooga Acute Respiratory Disease Survey" (with Winston Harrington), report
prepared for Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, April
15, 1983.
"Cost per Exposure Reduction Analysis of Alternative NO2 NAAQS" (with Winston Harrington), report
prepared for Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
Research Triangle Park, N.C., August 3, 1982.
"Appendix to Chapter VI of the NO2 Regulatory Impact Analysis: Deriving Damage Functions for the
Effects of N02: An Evaluation of Selected Studies" (with Winston Harrington), August 1982.
"Federal Regulation: A Statistical Analysis" (with Winston Harrington, Wesley Magat, and Henry M.
Peskin), May 1982.
B-16
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Alan Krupnick
"Simulating Alternative Air Pollution Control Policies: Nitrogen Oxides in the Baltimore Air Quality
Control Region," report to the Department of Economic and Community Development, State of
Maryland, December 1981.
"Innovative Technology Compliance Extensions: A Qualitative Economic Analysis of Section 301(k) of
the 1977 Clean Water Act Amendments" (with David R. Yardas), prepared for U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency, January 1981.
BOOK REVIEWS
In Nature, review ofW. Beckerman, Small Is Stupid: Blowing the Whistle on the Greens Duckworth
Press, London. 1995.
In Environment International, review of A.L. Nichols, Targeting Economic Incentives for Environmental
Protection, The MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass., 1984.
OTHER
Reviewer for:
Review of Economics and Statistics
American Journal of Agricultural Economics
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management
Journal of Applied Policy and Management
Land Economics
Contemporary Policy Issues
Marine Resource Economics
Environmental Science and Technology
Operations Research
Journal of the Air Pollution Control Association
Journal of Industrial Economics
Journal of Regional Studies
Oxford University Press
Journal of Forestry
National Science Foundation
Co-Chair, Interagency Steering Committee on Valuing Health Outcomes, 2002-2003
Invited to serve on the Advisory Committee to the Center for Environmental and Resource Policy, North
Carolina State University, 2002
Editorial Board, Land Economics, 2001-2002
Member, CMAQ NAS Committee, 1999-2002
Member, STPPNAS Committee, 1999-2002
Member, Expert Panel on Reviewing the Canadian Proposed Ozone and PM Standards, Royal Society of
Canada, 1999-2001
B-17
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Alan Krupnick
Co-Chair of the Workshop on the Convergence of Risk Assessment and Socioeconomic Analysis to
Better Inform Chemical Risk Management Decisions, sponsored by USEPA, OECD, and Health Canada,
Arlington, VA, May 1-2, 2000
Member, Subcommittee of the EPA Science Advisory Board for Review of the 812 Cost-Benefit Study,
USEPA, 1998-1999
Co-chair of the Subcommittee for Development of Ozone, Particulate Matter and Regional Haze
Implementation Programs, Clean Air Act Advisory Committee to USEPA, 1995-1997
Member of the National Research Council's Review Team for the Federal Highway Cost Allocation
Study, 1995-1997
Member of the National Research Council's Committee on Research and Peer Review at the
Environmental Protection Agency, 1994-1997
Member of Scientific Advisory Board, Maryland Power Plant Research Program, State of Maryland,
1986-1990
Testimony, Senate Governmental Affairs Committee, House Marine Fisheries Committee, House
Committee on Science, Space, and Technology
Member of U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Costing Task Force
Member of the New York State Managing Board for the Environmental Costing Study
B-18
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Nino Kiinzli
B.2 Nino Kiinzli
Keck School of Medicine of the
University of Southern California
Department of Preventive Medicine
Division of Occupational and Environmental Health
1540 Alcazar Street, Suite 236
Los Angeles, CA 90033
Business Phone 323-442-2870
FAX 323-442-3272
Email kuenzli@usc.edu
Education:
College or University University of Basel, M.D., B.S., 1986
Medical School University of Basel, 1976-1982
Advanced Degrees University of California, Berkeley, M.P.H., 1993
University of California, Berkeley, Ph.D., 1996
Internships Rotating Internships (University of Basel Program) with Internal
Medicine and Surgery, Regional Hospital Davos; Gynecology
and Obstetrics, Cantonal Hospital Miinsterlingen; Neurology,
Klinikum Steglitz, Berlin, West Germany; Ophthalmology,
Clinica del Universita die Siena, Italy, 1982
Residencies
General Practitioner Residencies with different physicians in
Switzerland and Berlin (Germany), 1984
Regional Hospital Davos, Internal Medicine, 1985-1986
University Hospital Basel, Gynecology / Obstetrics 1986-1987
Resident, St. Clara Hospital, Basel, General and Abdominal
Surgery 1987-1989
Preventive Medicine Research residency at the Institute of
Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Basel, 1989-1992
Fellowships
Swiss National Science Research Fellowship, 1992-1995 Swiss
National Science Advanced Researcher Fellowship PROSPER,
1997-2002
Honors and Awards
- Outstanding Graduate Student Instructor Award,
School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley,
1993/1994
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Nino Kiinzli
- Warren Winkelstein Epidemiology Best Thesis Award,
School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley,
1996
- Annual Award of the Swiss Society for Internal Medicine
2001
Licensure Swiss MD license
Board Certification Swiss Specialization Title, FMH, in Social and Preventive
Medicine; 1995
Professional Background:
Academic Appointments
Institute for Social and Preventive Medicine, University Basel; Research Assistant,
Epidemiology; Adjunct to Swiss National Research Program 26, NFP26 Human
Health and Environment, Basel
Scientific Coordinator of the Central Epidemiology Unit, Swiss Study on Air Pollution and Lung
Diseases in Adults, SAPALDIA 1989-1992
Scientific Advisor, Swiss Lung Association, Department for Lung Diseases, 1996
Senior Researcher and Member of Board of Directors, Institute for Social and Preventive
Medicine, University Basel, 1995-2002
Lecturer appointment, ETH Zurich; Environmental Epidemiology (Env Health Science Masters),
1996-2002
Assistant Professor (PD), University of Basel, Institute for Social and Preventive Medicine,
2001-2002
Associate Professor, Department of Preventive Medicine, University of Southern California, Los
Angeles, CA, 2002-
Specific Administrative Responsibilities
Member of the Board of Directors, Institute for Social and Preventive Medicine, University of
Basel, 1996-
President of the Faculty and Member of the Board of Directors, Swiss Master of Public Health
Program, Universities of Basel, Bern, Zurich, 2000-2002
Head of Master of Public Health Epidemiology/Biostatistics Sub-Committee, Universities of
Basel, Bern, Zurich, 1999-2000
Head of Master of Public Health Financial Commission, Universities of Basel, Bern, Zurich,
2000-2002
Member of the Preventive Medicine Curricular Committee, University of Basel, 1999-20002
Other Employment or Activity
Expert Advisory Committee, Austrian Particle and Health Program, 1999-2002
Member of the National Research Committee, National Academy of Sciences, Estimating Public
Health Benefits of Proposed Air Pollution Regulation, 2001-2002
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Nino Kiinzli
Expert Committee Swiss National Environmental Health Action Plan, NEHAP, (mandate by
Swiss Lung Association), 1996-98
Member of the Swiss Federal Working Group on the Revision of the Swiss Medical Exam,
Public Health, 1998
Expert Advisory Committee on Nuclear Energy and Sustainability of the Swiss Academies of
Science, CASS, 1998-2001
Federal Advisory Board for Climate Change of the Swiss Government, 1998-2002
External Review Board of the WHO Project "Systematic Review of Health Aspects of Air
Quality in Europe," 2002-2003
Review Board on Air Pollution Health Impact, New Zealand Research Council, 2002
U.S. EPA Scientific Advisory Board, Advisory Council on Clean Air Compliance Analysis.
Health and Ecological Effects Subcommittee (May 2003 - present)
Research Activities:
Major Areas of Research Interest
Environmental determinants of diseases, with major focus on air pollution and health
Research in Progress
Long-term effects of air pollution and its disease burden on society
Research Grants in Past Five Years
Principal Investigator
1. Assessment of long-term health effects and population risk of $765,000
ambient air pollution
Swiss National Science Foundation Advanced Research Fellowship
1997-2002
Co-Investigators: personal fellowship grant
2. Air Pollution, Exposure and Health in the European Community $213,000
Respiratory Health Survey (ECRHS) City of Basel
Swiss Federal Office for Education and Science
2000-2003
Co-Investigators: Ackermann-Liebrich U, Leuenberger Ph, Brutsche M,
Perruchoud A, Probst N, Schindler Ch, Burney P and
ECRHS Research Team
3. Air Pollution in the European Community Respiratory Health $500,000
Survey Centers
Swiss Federal Office for Education and Science
2000-2004
Co-Investigators: Ackermann-Liebrich U Basel, Burney P London, and
ECRHS Research Team (Burney P is the Principal Investigator of the
European wide Health Cohort Study)
4. Air Pollution Exposure Distribution Across Urban European Populations, $208,000
The EXPOLIS Study
Swiss Federal Office for Education and Science (+ European Community)
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Nino Kiinzli
and ETH Contributions
1996-2000
Co-Investigators: Jantunen Matti (PI of the European wide EXPOLIS Study;
NK is PI of the Basel Centre); Katsouyanni Klea, Sram Radim,
Zmirou Denis, Lebret Erik, Saarela Kristina, Maroni Marco.
5. Chemical Elements on European PM2.5: The Elemental Analyses $154,000
Study of EXPOLIS
Swiss National Science Foundation
1998-2001
Co-Investigators: Stern W, Basel; Jantunen Matti Helsinki; Katsouyanni
Klea Athens, Sram Radim, Praha; Zmirou Denis, Grenoble; Lebret Erik;
Bilthoven; Saarela Kristina, Helsinki; Maroni Marco, Milano; Ackermann-
Liebrich Ursula, Basel; Braun-Fahrlander Charlotte, Basel.
6. SAPALDIA Cohort Followup Preparation Study with Basel Center $313,000
Health Assessment
Swiss National Science Foundation
2001-2004
Co-Investigators: Leuenberger Ph, Lausanne (Principal Inv of the full
SAPALDIA Study I and II); Akcermann-Liebrich Ursula, Basel,
Schindler Chrisitan, Basel, and SAPALDIA Team Switzerland
7. Trinational Public Health Impact Assessment of Traffic related $35,000
Air Pollution
Swiss Federal Agency of the Environment, Transport, Energy and
Communication and WHO
1998-1999
Co-Investigators: SommerH, Switzerland; Seethaler Rita, Switzerland,
Filliger P Switzerland; Medina Silvia, Paris; Studnicka M, Vienna;
and European Team.
8. Monetarization of the Public Health Impact of Traffic related Air $36,000
Pollution in Switzerland
Swiss Federal Agency of the Environment, Transport, Energy
and Communication
1996-1997
Co-Investigators: SommerH, Switzerland; Filliger P Switzerland;
Kaiser Reinhard and Team.
PM2.5 and other pollutants in the SAPALDIA and SCARPOL Cities $62,000
Swiss Agency for the Environment
1998-2001
Co-Investigators: NK (SAPALDIA) was Co-Principal with Braun-Fahrlander
Charlotte (SCARPOL) and SAPALDIA and SCARPOL Team
The EXPOLIS Index Study on Indoor Pollutants and Personal Exposure $280,000
The European Chemical Industry Council -CECFIC
2002-2004
Co-Investigators: Jantunen Matti, Oglesby Lucy, and EXPOLIS Group
9. Comparison of air quality, customer preferences and economic differences $17,000
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Nino Kiinzli
in a smoking and non-smoking Restaurant
Zurich Lung Association
2002
Co-Investigator: Brandli Otto
10. Cat ownership and sensitization to cat allergen in the European Community $33,000
Respiratory Health Survey
Swiss Academy of Medical Sciences
1998-1999
Co-Investigators: Roost Hp, Burney Peter, London, and ECRHS Team
11. Comparison of Spirometry Devices for a Multicenter Cohort Study $33,000
(SAPALDIA)
Basel Lung Association; Zurich Lung Association
1999-2000
Co-Investigators: Ackermann-Liebrich U, Leuenberger Ph, and SAPALDIA Group
12. Impact of Air Pollution on Health in the South Tyrolia county, Italy $14,000
Tyrol Agency of the Environment
2001
Co-Investigators: none
Association of different long-term metrics of ozone exposure in Switzerland $10,000
Swiss Agency for the Environment
1998
Co-Investigators: none
The EXPOLIS Index Study on Indoor Pollutants and Personal Exposure $280,000
The European Chemical Industry Council - CECFIC
2002-2004
Co-Investigators: Jantunen Matti, Oglesby Lucy and EXPOLIS Group
13. Oxidative Properties of Los Angeles Particulates, The OPLAP Pilot Study. $25,000
Southern California Environmental Health Sciences Center (SCEHSC) of NIEHS
May 2003-July 2004
Co-Investigators: Avol E, Borm P, Cho A, Frank K, Froines J, Nel A, Sioutas C.
Co-Investisator
1. DNA Module of European Community Respiratory Health Survey Basel Center $95,000
and SAPALDIA Basel
Freie Akademische Gesellschaft (Free Academic Society, Basel)
1998
Principal Investigator: Probst Hensch Nicole, and SAPALDIA Basel Team
2. The Swiss Study on Air Pollution and Lung Diseases in Adults, SAPALDIA, $300,000
Mortality Follow-up
Swiss National Science Foundation
1996-2001
Principal Investigator: Leuenberger Ph., Lausanne; and SAPALDIA Group
3. The Swiss Study on Air Pollution and Lung Diseases in Adults, SAPALDIA $ 95,000
Cohort Study
Swiss National Science Foundation, and others
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Nino Kiinzli
1998
Principal Investigator: Leuenberger Ph., Lausanne; and SAPALDIA Group
4. The Basel Risk Assessment Study BRISKA $66,000
Humans - Environment - Society Foundation Basel
1998
Principal Investigator: Braun-Fahrlander Ch; Co-investigators: Theis G,
Stern WB and BRISKA Team
5. University of California Berkeley Ozone Study Subcontract: $22,000
U.S. NIH
1999-2003 (total grant: 1,174,000)
Principal Investigator: Tager Ira B; Co-investigators: Balmes J, Lurman F,
Holland N and Team
BIBLIOGRAPHY
PEER REVIEW
indicates student first author
1. Braun-Fahrlander CH, Kiinzli N, Domenighetti GF, Carell CF, Ackermann-Liebrich U. Acute
effects of ambient ozone on respiratory function of Swiss schoolchildren after a 10-
minute heavy exercise. Pediatr Pulmono 1994; 17:169-77.
2. Leuenberger P, Schwartz J, Ackermann-Liebrich U, Kiinzli N, SAPALDIA Team. Passive
smoking exposure in adults and chronic respiratory symptoms (SAPALDIA Study). Am J Respir
Crit Care Med 1994; 150:1222-28 (with editorial + letter to the authors).
3. Kiinzli N, Ackermann-Liebrich U, Keller R, Perruchoud AP, Schindler CH, SAPALDIA Team.
Variability of FVC and FEV1 due to technician, team, device and subject in an eight center
study; three quality control studies in SAPALDIA. Eur Respir J 1995; 8:371-76.
4. Kiinzli N, Lurman F, Ngo L, Balmes J, Tager I. Reliability of life-time residential history
assessment as an element of cumulative ambient ozone exposure estimates. J Exp Analys
Environ Epidemiol 1996; 6(3):289-310.
5. Brandli O, Schindler CH, Kiinzli N, Keller R, Perruchoud AP, and SAPALDIA Team. Lung
function in healthy never smoking adults. Thorax 1996; 51:277-83.
6. Jurvelin J, De Bortoli M, Cavallo D, Knoeppel H, Kiinzli N, Laine-Ylijoki J, Oglesby L, Saarela
K, Jantunen M. Methodology and quality assurance of VOC measurements in the EXPOLIS
study advances. Occup Med Rehab 1997; 3(3):27-32.
7. Ackermann-Liebrich U, Leuenberger PH, Schwartz J et al, Kiinzli N, and SAPALDIA Team.
Lung function and long-term exposure to air pollutants in Switzerland. Am J Respir Crit Care
Med 1997; 155(1): 122-29.
8. Kiinzli N, Kaiser R, Rapp R, Sommer H, Wanner H, Ackermann-Liebrich U. Luftverschmutzung
in der Schweiz - Quantifizierung gesundheitlicher effekte unter verwendung epidemiologischer
Daten. [Air pollution in Switzerland. Quantifying of health effects using epidemiologic data]
Schweiz Med Wochenschr 1997; 127:1361-70.
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Nino Kiinzli
9. Kiinzli N, Braun-Fahrlander C, Rapp R, Ackermann-Liebrich U. Lufitverschmutzung und
epidemiologic - kausalitatskriterien der umweltepidemiologie. [Air pollution and health - causal
criteria in environmental epidemiology] Schweiz Med Wochenschr 1997; 127:1334-44.
10. Martin B, Ackermann-Liebrich U, Leuenberger P, Kiinzli N, Zemp E, and SAPALDIA Team.
SAPALDIA - Methods and participation in the cross-sectional part of the Swiss study on air
pollution and lung disease in adults. Soz Praventivmed 1997; 42(2):67-84.
11. Kiinzli N, Lurman F, Segal M, Ngo L, Balmes J, Tager I, Association between life-time ambient
ozone exposure and pulmonary function in college freshmen - Results of a Pilot Study. Environ
Res 1997; 72(l):8-23.
12. Kiinzli N, Kelly T, Balmes J, Tager IB. Reproducibility of retrospective long-term assessment of
outdoor time-activity patterns as an individual determinant of long-term ambient ozone exposure.
Int J Epidemiol 1997; 26(6): 1258-72.
13. Kiinzli N, Tager IB. The semi-individual study in air pollution epidemiology: a valid design as
compared to ecologic studies. Environ Health Perspect 1997; 105(10).
14. Tager I, Kiinzli N, Lurman F, Ngo L, Balmes J. Methods development for epidemiologic
investigations of the health effects of prolonged ozone exposure. Part II: An approach to
retrospective estimation of lifetime ozone exposure using a questionnaire and ambient
monitoring data (California sites). Res Rep Health Eff Inst 1998; 81:27-78 (disc: 109-21).
15. Tager I, Kiinzli N, Ngo L, Balmes J. Methods development for epidemiologic investigations of
the health effects of prolonged ozone exposure. Part I: variability of pulmonary function
measures. Res Rep Health Efflnst 1998; 81:1-25 (disc: 109-21).
16. Leuenberger P, Kiinzli N, Ackermann-Liebrich U et al. Etude Suisse sur la pollution de l'air et
les maladies respiratoire chez l'adulte. Schweiz Med Wochenschr 1998; 128:150-61.
17. Kaiser R, Schindler CH, Kiinzli N, Ackermann-Liebrich U, Heeb D, Medici TC, Zellweger JP
and SAPALDIA Team. Use of transition probabilities to estimate the effect of smoking on the
duration of episodes of respiratory symptoms in diary data. Am J Epidemiol 1998; 148:600-08.
18. Monn CH, Alean-Kirkpatrick P, Kiinzli N, Defila C, Peeters A, Ackermann-Liebrich U,
Leuenberger PH and SAPALDIA Team. Air pollution, climate and pollen. Atmos Environ 1999;
33:2411-16.
19. Jantunen M, Hanninen O, Katsouyanni K, Knoppel H, Kiinzli N, Lebret E, Maroni M, Saarela
K, Sram R, Zmirou D. Air pollution exposure in European cities: the EXPOLIS study. J Exp
Analysis Environ Epidemiol 1998; 8(4):495-518.
20. Zemp E, Elsasser S, Schindler C, Kiinzli N, Perruchoud AP, Leuenberger Ph et al, and
SAPALDIA Team. Long-term ambient air pollution and respiratory symptoms in adults. Am J
Respir Crit Care Med 1999; 159:1257-66.
21. Wuthrich B, Leuenberger PH, Ackermann-Lierbich U, Schindler C, Karrer W, Kiinzli N, Brandli
O, and SAPALDIA Team. Atopische sensibilisierung, luftverschmutzung und respiratorische
erkrankungen in der Schweiz (SAPALDIA-Studie). Allergologie 1999; 22(5):267-74.
22. Koistinen KJ,* Kousa A, Tenhola V, Hanninen O, Jantunen M, Oglesby L, Kiinzli N,
Georgoulis L. Fine particle (PM2.5) measurement methodology, quality assurance procedures
and pilot results of the EXPOLIS Study. J Air Waste Manag Assoc. October 1999; 49(10): 1212-
20.
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Nino Kiinzli
23. Rey B,* Kiinzli N, Probst R, Ackermann-Liebrich U. Instruktor der armee und festungswachter -
risikoberufe fur akute akustische traumata und fur das tragen eines horgerats. Soz Prav Med
1999; 44(5):204-10.
24. Roost HP,* Kunzli N, Schindler C, Jarvis D, Chinn S, Perruchoud AP, Ackermann-Liebrich U,
Burney P, Wuthrich B. On behalf of European community respiratory health survey (ECRHS).
Role of current and childhood exposure to cat and atopic sensitization. J Allerg Clin Immunol
1999; 104(5):941-47.
25. Kunzli N, Zemp Stutz E, Perruchoud AP , Brandli O, Tschopp JM, Bolognini G, Karrer W,
Schindler CH, Ackermann-Liebrich U and Leuenberger PH. On behalf of the SAPALDIA Team.
Peak flow variability in the SAPALDIA study and its validity to screen for asthma-related
conditions. Am J Respir Crit Care Med 1999; 160(2):427-34.
26. Kunzli N, Ackermann-Liebrich U, Brandli O, Tschopp JM, Schindler C, Leuenberger P on
behalf of the SAPALDIA - Team. Clinically "small effects" of air pollution on FVC have large
public health impact. Eur Respir J 2000; 15(1): 131-36.
27. Leuenberger PH, Ackermann-Liebrich U, Kunzli N, Schindler C. SAPALDIA , passe, present et
avenir. Schweiz Med Wochenschr, 2000; 130:291-97.
28. Leuenberger P, Schindler C, Schwartz J, Ackermann-Liebrich U, Tara D, Perruchoud AP,
Wuthrich B, Zellweger JP, Blaser K, Bolognini G, Bongard JP, Brandli O, Domenighetti G,
Elsasser S, Grize L, Karrer W, Keller R, Kunzli N, Medici T, Schoni MH, Solari G, Tschopp
JM, Villiger B, Zemp E.. Occupational exposure to inhalative irritants and methacholine. Scand J
Work Environ Health 2000; 26(2): 146-52.
29. Oglesby L,* Kunzli N, Monn C, Schindler C, Ackermann-Liebrich U, Leuenberger PH and
SAPALDIA Team. Validity of annoyance scores to estimate long-term air pollution exposure in
epidemiological studies. Am J Epidemiol 2000; 152:75-83.
30. Wyler C,* Braun-Fahrlander CH, Kunzli N, Schindler C, Ackermann-Liebrich U, Perruchoud A,
Leuenberger PH, Wuthrich B and the SAPALDIA Team. Exposure to motor vehicle traffic and
allergic sensitisation. Epidemiology 2000; 11(4):450-56.
31. Kunzli N, Shang H, Grize L, Karrer W, Keller R, Gugger M, Fitting JW, von Allmen A.
Kantonale unterschiede in der verordnungsdichte der apparativen heimtherapien von
lungenpatienten in der schweiz. Lungenligen Schweiz 1989-1996. Pneumologie 2000; 54:147-54.
32. Junker M, Kasper M, Roosli M, Camenzind M, Kunzli N, Monn C, Theis G, Braun-Fahrlander
C. Airborne particle number profiles, particle mass distributions and particle-bound PAH
concentrations within the city environment of Basel: an assessment as part of the BRISKA
project. Atmos Environ 2000; 34:3171-81.
33. Oglesby L,* Rotko T, Kriitli P, Boudet C, Kruize H, Jantunen MJ, and Kunzli N. Personal
exposure assessment studies may suffer from exposure relevant selection bias. J Expo Anal
Environ Epidemiol 2000; 10:251-66.
34. Roosli M,* Braun-Fahrlander C, Kunzli N, Oglesby L, Theis G, Camenzind M, Mathys P,
Staehelin J. Spatial variability of different fractions of particulate matter within an urban
environment and between urban and rural sites. J Air Waste Manage Assoc 2000; 50:1115-24.
35. Oglesby L,* Kunzli N, Roosli M, Braun-Fahrlander C, Mathys P, Stern W, Jantunen M, Kousa
A. Validity of ambient levels of fine particles as surrogate for personal exposure to outdoor air
pollution. J Air Waste Manage Assoc 2000; 50:1251-61.
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36. Rotko T, Oglesby L, Kiinzli N, Jantunen MJ. Population sampling in European air pollution
exposure study, EXPOLIS: comparisons between cities and representatives of the samples. J
Expo Anal Environ Epidemiol 2000; 10(4):355-64.
37. WHO Working Group. Evaluation and use of epidemiological evidence for environmental health
risk assessment: WHO guideline document. Environ Health Perspect 2000; 108(10): 997-1002.
38. Kiinzli N, Tager IB. Long-term health effects of particulate and other ambient air pollution:
research can progress faster - if we want it to! Environ Health Perspect. 2000; 108(10):915-18.
39. Kiinzli N, Schwartz J, Zemp Stutz E, Ackermann-Liebrich U, Leuenberger PH and SAPALDIA
Team. Association of environmental tobacco smoke at work and forced expiratory lung function
among never smoking asthmatics and non-asthmatics. Soz Praventiv Med 2000; 45:208-217.
40. Kiinzli N, Kaiser R, Medina S, Studnicka M Chanel O, Filliger P, Herry M, Horak F. Jr,
Puybonnieux-Texier V, Quenel P, Schneider J, Seethaler R, Vergnaud J-C, Sommer H. Public
health impact of outdoor and traffic-related air pollution: a tri-national European assessment.
Lancet 2000; 356:795-801 (with commentary; letters; letter reply).
41. Schindler C, Kiinzli N, Bongard JP, Leuenberger P, Karrer W, Rapp R, Monn C, Ackermann-
Liebrich U. Short-term variation in air pollution and in average lung function among never-
smokers. Am J Respir Crit Care Med 2001; 163(2):356-61.
42. Danuser B, Weber CH, Kiinzli N, Nowak D. Respiratory symptoms in Swiss farmers: an
epidemiological study of risk factors. Am J Indust Med 2001; 39(4):410-18.
43. Roosli M,* Theis G, Kiinzli N, Staehelin J, Mathys P, Oglesby L, Camenzind M, Braun-
Fahrlander C. Temporal and spatial variation of the chemical composition of PM10 at urban and
rural sites in the Basel area, Switzerland. Atmos Environ 2001; 35(21):3701-13.
44. Studnicka M, Oberfeld G, Horak F Jr, Kaiser R, Kiinzli N. Gesundheitsfolgen verkehrsbedingter
luftverschmutzung in Osterreich. Osterreichischer epidemiologischer teilbericht eines WHO-
projekts (Frankreich, Schweiz und Osterreich) zu den quantifizierbaren folgekosten des
straBcnvcrkchrs. Atemw Lungenkrkh 2001; 27(9):439-56.
45. Kiinzli N, Medina S, Kaiser R, Quenel PH, Horak F Jr, Studnicka M. Assessment of air pollution
attributable deaths: should we use time-series or cohort study based risk estimates? Am J
Epidemiol 2001; 153:1050-105.
46. Janson CH, Anto J, Burney P, Chinn S, de Marco R, Heinrich J, Jarvis D, Kiinzli N, Leynaert B,
Luczynska CH, Neukirich F, Svanes C, Sunyer J, Wjst M on behalf of the European community
respiratory health survey II. The European community respiratory health survey (ECRHS) so far:
what are the main results? Eur Respir J 2001; 18(3):598-611.
47. Kiinzli N, Kaiser Reinhard, Seethaler Rita Luftverschmutzzung und Gesundheit: Quantitative
Risikoabschatzung. Umweltmed Forsch Prax 2001; 6 (4):202-212.
48. Mathys P, Stern WB, Oglesby O, Braun-Fahrlander C, Ackermann-Liebrich U, Jantunen
M, Kiinzli N. Elemental analysis of airborne particulate matter by ED-XRF within the
European EXPOLIS study. ICP Information Newsletter 2001; 27(3):29-34.
49. Kiinzli N. The public health relevance of air pollution abatement. Eur Respir J 2002; 20:198-
209.
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50. Kahlmeier S,* Kiinzli N, Braun-Fahrlander CH. The first years of implementation of the Swiss
national environment and health action plan (NEHAP): lessons for environmental health
promotion. Sozial Praventivmed 2002; 47(2):67-73.
51. Gotschi Th,* Oglesby L, Mathys P, Monn Ch, Manalis N, Koistinen K, Jantunen M, Hanninen
O, Polanska L, Kiinzli N. Comparison of Black Smoke and PM2 5 Levels in Indoor and Outdoor
Environments of Four European Cities. Environ Sci Technol, 2002; 36(6):67-73.
52. Rotko T,* Oglesby L, Kiinzli N, Carrer P, Nieuwenhuijsen MJ, Jantunen M. Determinants of
perceived air pollution annoyance and association between annoyance socres and air pollution
(PM2.5, N02) concentrations in the European EXPOLIS study. Atmos Environ 2002;
3(29):4593-602.
53. Seethaler R, Sommer H, Kiinzli N. Monetarisierung luftschadstoffbedingter
Gesundheitsschaden. Umweltmed Forsch Prax 2002; 7(1): 17-25.
54. Kiinzli N. Happy Birthday MPH - It's Time for The Party - a Reality Check - and a Cure. Sozial
Praventivmed (Editorial); 2002; 47 (5):279-80
55. Kousa A, Oglesby L, Koistinen K, Kiinzli N, Jantunen M. Exposure Chain of Urban air PM2 5 -
Associations between ambient fixed site, residential outdoor, indoor, workplace and personal
exposures in four European Cities in the EXPOLIS-study.Atmos Environ, 2002; 36 (18): 3031-
3039
56. The European Community Respiratory Health Survey Steering Committee. The European
Community Respiratory Health Survey II.Eur Respir J 2002; 20: 1071-1079
57. Georgulis L, Hanninen O, Samoli E, Katsouyanni K, Kiinzli N, Polanska L,Bruinen de Bruin Y,
Aim S, Jantunen M. Personal Carbon Monoxide Exposure in five European Cities and its
determinants. Atmos Environ 2002, 36: 963-974
58. Menne B, Kiinzli N, Bertollini R. The health impacts of climate change and variability in
developing countries. Int J Global Environ Issues, 2002; 2 (3/4): 181-205
59. Roosli M,* Kiinzli N, Schindler C, Braun-Fahrlander Ch., Which Effect Measure Should Be
Used for Impact Assessment in a New Population Context? J Human Ecol Risk Assess, 2003; 9
(3):709-19
60. Marianne E. Hazenkamp-von Arx, Gotschi Fellmann T, Oglesby L, Jarvis D, Luczynska C,
Gislason T, Joachim Heinrich, Jaen Manzanera A, Modig L, Norback D, Pfeifer A, Poli P,
Ponzio M, Soon A, Vermeire P, Kiinzli N. PM2 5 Assessment in 21 European Study Centers of
ECRHS II. Method and first Winter Results. J Air Waste Man Assoc, 2003; 53: 617-28
61. Roosli R*, Kiinzli N, Schindler C, Theis G, Oglesby L, Mathys P, Camenzind M, Braun-
Fahrlander Ch. Assessment of Air Pollution Attributable Cancer Cases. J Occup Environ Med
2003; 45 (7): 715-23
62. Kiinzli N, Mazzoletti P, Adam M, Gotschi T, Brandli O. Smoke-free Cafes in a unregulated
European City: Highly Welcomed and Economically Successful Tobbaco Contr 2003; 12 (3):
282-88
63. Kiinzli N, McConnell R, Bates D, Bastain T, Hricko A, Lurmann F, Avol E, Gilliland F, Peters
J. Breathless in Los Angeles: The Exhausting Search for Clean Air. Am J Public Health, 2003;
93 (9): 1494-99
64. de Marco R, Accordini S, Cerveri I, Corsico A, Sunyer J, Neukirch F, Kiinzli N, Leynaert B,
Janson C, Gislason T, Vermeire P, Svanes C, Anto J M, Burney P. An international survey of
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chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in young adults according to GOLD stages. Thorax
2004;59(2): 120-125
ARTICLES IN PRESS
1. Hazenkamp-von Arx ME, Kiinzli N, et al. (Working group ECRHS ). Asosciatione of PM2.5 and
N02 long-term means across 21 European Study Centers of ECRHS II. Atmos Environ 2004
ARTICLES SUBMITTED
1. Kunas Dibbert B, Kiinzli N, et al. (SAPALDIA Group). Variability of lung function parameters
due to use of different spirometers. Submitted Eur Respir J
2. Kaiser R, Medina S, Schwartz J, Krzyzanowski M, Romieu I, Kiinzli N. Air Pollution Attributable
Postneonatal Infant Mortality in US Metropolitan Areas. Submitted 2003
3. Mathys P, * Stern WB, Oglesby L, Braun-Fahrlander C, Koistinen K Jantunen M, Katsouyanni
K Maroni M, Sram R, Zmirou D, Kiinzli N. Elemental composition ofPM2.5 in five European
cities - The Elemental Analysis Study in EXPOLIS. Submitted
4. Mathys P, * Stern WB, Oglesby L, Braun-Fahrlander C, Koistinen K Jantunen M, Katsouyanni
K Maroni M, Sram R, Zmirou D, Kiinzli N. Outdoor PM2.5 are highly correlated with indoor
PM2.5 from outdoor origin. Submitted to Environ Sci Technol
5. Kiinzli N, Schindler C. Never done but needed: Case-crossover studies in air pollution
epidemiology should provide the relevant exposure, submitted, Jan 2004
NON PEER REVIEW
1. Kiinzli N, Kaiser R, Medina S, Studnicka M, Oberfeld G, Horak F.
Health Costs due to Road Traffic-related Air Pollution. An impact assessment project of Austria,
France and Switzerland, prepared for the Third Ministerial Conference on Environment and
Health London 1999 Published by: Federal Department for Environment, Transport, Energy and
Communications Bureau for Transport Studies, Switzerland, Bern 1999
2. Kiinzli N, Grize L.
Verordnungen von Langzeitsauerstoff-Therapie, Behandlung der Schlaf-Apnoe sowie der
Heimventilation der Schweizer Lungenligen 1989-1996. Ein Ubersichtsbericht zu handen der
Schweizerischen Vereinigung gegen Tuberkulose und Lungenkrankheiten SVTL. Basel, im
November 1997.
3. Kiinzli N, Kaiser R, Rapp R, Ackermann-Liebrich U.
Teilbericht Epidemiologie des Projektes zur Erfassung der durch die verkehrsbedingte
Luftverschmutzung entstehenden Gesundheitskosten. Teil-Projekt des Instituts fur Sozial- und
Praventivmedizin, Basel (Leitung: Prof. Ursula Ackermann-Liebrich) im Auftrag des Dienstes
fur Gesamtverkehrsfragen im Generalsekretariat des Eidgenossischen Verkehrs- und
Energiedepartements (GVF) Bern. Basel, 3.5.96
4. Kiinzli N, Tager, IB, Ackermann-Liebrich, U.
Methodological issues regarding the epidemiollogic assessment of long-term effects of recurrent
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life-time oxidant exposure (Report on the WHO/UNECE task force workshop, Eastbourne, June
1996)
5. Kiinzli N, Leuenberger and SAPALDIA Team.
Final Report of the Swiss Study on Air Pollution and Lung Disease in Adults (SAPALDIA), NFP
26.1995.
6. Domenighetti GF; Braun-Fahrlander Ch, Kiinzli N, Carell CF.
Auswirkungen von Ozon auf die Lungenfunktion von 9-11 jahrigen Schulkindern im
Kanton Tessin (Effects of ozone on lung functions of children, ages 9-11, in the Tessin
County) Final Report, National Research Fund (# 4026-25881) December 1990.
7. Kahlmeier S, Kiinzli N, Koller T, Braun-Fahrlander Ch, Ackermann-Liebrich U.
Aktionsplan Umwelt und Gesundheit: Evaluationskonzept zum Teilbereich Fahrradforderung, im
Auftrag des Bundesamtes fur Gesundheit, Fachstelle Umwelt und Gesundheit, Basel, November
1997.
8. Kaiser R, Kiinzli N, Braun-Fahrlander, Ch.
Investigation of potential health effects of nerve agents during the chemical weapon destruction
in Shchuch'ye, Kurgan Oblast, Russian Federation. Bericht zu Handen Greencross Schweiz.
Basel, June 1998.
9. Kiinzli N, Oglesby, L.
Air Pollution Exposure Distributions of Adult Urban Populations in Europe "EXPOLIS,"
Intermediate Scientific Report for the Federal Office for Education and Sciences (BBW), Basel,
Switzerland, July 24, 1997.
10. Kiinzli N.
Luftverschmutzung: die gesundheitlichen Folgen in Osterreich, Frankreich und der Schweiz
WaBoLu-Hefte 2/00, Feinstaub - Die Situation Deutschland nach der EU-Tochter-Richtlinie.
(2000) ISSN 0175-4211.
11. Kiinzli N.
Quantifizierung der gesundheitlichen Folgen der Luftverschmutzung im Siidtirol. Eine Expertise
zu handen der Landesagentur fur Umwelt und Arbeitsschutz, Amt fur Luft und Larm Bozen,
Italien. Basel, May 2001.
12. Kiinzli N.
Klimapolitik - Wellness hier und heute. ProClim Flash 2001; 20 (April) in press
13. Kiinzli N.
Ministers of Health, Environment, Traffic, Economy: You need to have lunch together! Editorial.
Soz Prav Med 2000 45 (6): 237-8.
14. Braun-Fahrlander C, Kahlmeier S, Kiinzli N, Ogelsby L, Ackermann-Liebrich U.
Umwelt und Gesundheit - von der Forschung zum Handeln. Uni Nova, April 1999. Basel
15. Aegerter I, Ritz Ch, Ruh H und die iibrigen Mitglieder der CASS Arbeitsgruppe (Kiinzli et al.).
Nachhaltige Stromversorgung. Eine Gesamtschau istnotig. NZZ 8.8.2000; Nr 182 (1): 13-14.
16. Kiinzli N.
Gesundheitsforderung - Was geht das uns an? Schweiz Aerztezeitung 1999, 80 (6): 332
(Editorial)
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17 Kiinzli N
SUN 21 - Nachhaltige Wirkung fur nachhaltige Energiepolitik? Riickblick auf den 4.
Kongress Medizin und Umwelt: Energie und Gesundheit. Schweiz Aerztezeitung 1998,
79 (48):2455-57.
18. Kiinzli N.
Nachhaltiger Aufbruch in Basel. SUN21 - auch fur die Aerzteschafit. Schweiz Aerztezeitung
1998; 79 (29/30): 1414.
19. Oglesby L, Kiinzli N, Kriitli P, Monn, Ch, Jantunen M.
Have we monitored a represenatative sample? Comparison between the large population
samples and the actually monitored subjects in the EXPOLIS Study. Environment, Health
and Chemical Safety. Proceedings of an EC Workshop, Athens March 22-25 1998;
Edited by Nolan C, Katsouyanni K and Kyrtopoulos SAPALDIA. In: Ecosystesm
Research Report Nol. 28. Commission of the European Communities Report EUR 18266.
20. Braun-Fahrlander C, Kiinzli N, Rapp R, Ackermann-Liebrich U.
Status and development of Environmental Medicine in Switzerland. NEHAP. WHO, in
press.
21. Kiinzli N.
Der hinkende Vergleich: Rauchen versus Luftverschmutzung. Therapie Woche Schweiz,
1997; 13 (6): 10-13.
22. Kiinzli N.
SAPALDIA-Studie -keine Resultate? Soz Praventivmed 1997; 42:131-132. (Editorial)
23. Brandli O, Kiinzli N.
Inhalierte Staubpartikel. Wie schadlich sind sie fiir unsere Lungen? Neue Ziircher Zeitung,
Forschung und Technik 13.8. 1997; Nr 185: S. 53.
24. Kahlmeier S, Kiinzli N, Braun-Fahrlander Ch.
Aktionsplan Umwelt und Gesundheit. Ein wichtiger Beitrag zur Gesundheitsfoderung und
Prevention in der Schweiz. Schweizerische Aerztezeitung 1997; 78 (49): 1852-54.
25. Kiinzli N, Tager I.
Life-time retrospective ambient ozone exposure assessment in a pilot study with Californian
students. Ackermann-Liebrich U, Viegi G, Nolan C, editor. Air Pollution Epidemiology Report
Series #5: Time Activity Patterns in Exposure Assessment. Brussels: Office for Official
Publications of the European Communities, 1995; EU15892 EN.
26. Jantunen M, Hanninen O, Saarela K , Kiinzli N, et al.
Design of a population based study (APED-AUPE) on urban air pollution exposures in Europe.
Proceedings 2nd Finnish Conference of Environmental Sciences, Helsinki 1995; November 17-
18.
27. Ackermann-Liebrich U, Kiinzli N, Leuenberger Ph, and SAPALDIA Team
Air Pollution Exposure and Asthma. The Swiss Study on Air Pollution and Lung Diseases in
Adults, SAPALDIA. in: EC (COST) - East European Workshop on Air Pollution Epidemiology;
Brussels and Budapest 1993.
28. Kiinzli N, Rapp R Ackermann-Liebrich U.
Luftverschmutzung - Konsequenzen fur den praktischen Arzt [Air pollution - consequences for
the general practitioner], Therap Umschau 1990; 47 (9):749-752.
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ABSTRACTS since 1995
1. Schindler C, Schwartz J, Leuenberger Ph, Kiinzli N, Ackermann-Liebrich U, Keller, R, Mon Ch
and SAPALDIA Team. Short term association between changes in air pollutant concentrations
and incidence of substantially reduced peak flow. Eur Respir J 1998; 12 (Suppl.28):375s.
2. Kiinzli N. Ackermann-Liebrich U, Brandli O, Tschopp JM; Leuenberger Ph, and SAPALDIA
Team. Public Health impact of small effects of air pollution on pulmonary function. Eur Respir J
1998; 12 (Suppl.28):359s.
3. Kiinzli N, Kaiser R, Rapp R, Ackermann-Lierbrich U, Sommer H.Public Health risk assessment
of traffic related air pollution - development of a common method. Epidemiology 1998: 9(4):
S65.
4. Kiinzli N, Kaiser R, Rapp R, Ackermann-Lierbrich Brandli O, Tschopp JM, Leuenberger Ph,
and SAPALDIA Team.Public Health impact of small effects of air pollution on pulmonary
function. Epidemiology 1998: 9(4): S65.
5. Oglesby L, Kriitli P, Kiinzli N, Jantunen M.Better Air - better participation? Evaluation of
selection bias in the European air pollution exposure study EXPOLIS. Epidemiology 1998: 9(4):
S87.
6. Kahlmeier S, Kiinzli N, Braun-Fahrlander C, Ackermann-Liebrich U.Swiss National Action Plan
Environment and Health (NEHAP). Epidemiology 1998: 9 (4): S125.
7. Kiinzli N.Personal Exposure data in air pollution epidemiology for long-term health effects.
Epidemiology 1998: 9(4): S69.
8. Oglesby L, Kiinzli N, Kriitli P, Monn, Ch, Jantunen M.Have we monitored a representative
samples? Comparison between the large population samples and the actually monitored subjects
in the EXPOLIS study. Ecosystems Research Report No.28. Environment, Health & Chemical
Safety. Report EUR 18266. Proceedings of an EC Workshop. Athens, March 22-25, 1998.
9. Kiinzli N, Schindler C, Brandli O, et al. 1st die Peak-flow variability ein niitzlicher Asthma
Screening-test fur die Schweizer Bevolkerung? (abstract). Schweiz Med Wochenschr 1997;
127(Suppl 84):8S-F13.
10. Kiinzli N, Brandli O, Bolognini G, et al.Peak-flow variability: low positive predictive value in
population screening to detect asthma. Eur Respir J 1997; 10(Suppl 25):307S.
11. Kiinzli N, Kaiser R, Rapp R, Ackermann-Liebrich U.Cleaner Air in Swiss Cities - is it worth an
effort? Schweiz Med Wochenschr 1996; 126(Suppl 75): 11 SAPALDIA. Jahreskongress
Schweizerische Gesellschaft fur Pneumologie 1996, Basel.
12. Kiinzli N, Kelly T, Segal M, Balmes J, Tager I. Three approaches of retrospective outdoor time-
activity assessment: reliability and validity (abstract). Epidemiology 1996; 7(4 Suppl):S88
(T279). Annual Meeting International Society Environmental Epidemiology 1996, Edmonton
Canada (Vortrag gehalten durch Dr. Ch. Braun-Fahrlander).
13. Kiinzli N, Kaiser R, Rapp R, Schindler C, Ackermann-Liebrich U.Public Health Burden of
Moderate Air Pollution. Eur Respir J 1996; 9(suppl 23): 162s (abstr 1060).Annual Meeting of the
European Respiratory Society 1996, Stockholm.
14. Kiinzli N, Ackermann-Liebrich U, Leuenberger P, Brandli O, SAPALDIA Team.Between-area
variation of time spent outdoors - a theoretical determinanat of ambiennt air pollution exposure.
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Epidemiology 1995; 6(4):S45(abstr). Annual Meeting International Society Environmental
Epidemiology 1995, Nordwijkerhout, NL.
15. Kiinzli N, BalmesJ, Lurman F, Segal M, Tager I.Retrospective exposure assignment for
epidemioloogic studies of ambient air pollution. Epidemiology 1995; 6(4):S63(abstr). Annual
Meeting International Society Environmental Epidemiology 1995 Nordwijkerhout, NL.
16. Leuenberger Ph, Ackermann-Liebrich U, Kiinzli N and SAPALDIA-Team. The Swiss Study on
Air Pollution and Lung Diseases in Adults (SAPALDIA). Presentation of Methods. Euro Respir
J 1991; 4(suppl 14): 172S.
17. Kiinzli N. Ackermann-Liebrich U, Brandli O, Tschopp JM; Leuenberger Ph & SAPALDIA
Team. Public Health impact of small effects of air pollution on pulmonary function. Am J respir
Crit Care Med 1998; 157 (4): abstract.
18. Schindler C, Leuenberger Ph, Kiinzli N, Ackermann-Liebrich U, Keller R, Monn C, SAPALDIA
Team. Short-term aossications between changes in air pollutant concentrations and incidence of
reduced peak flow. Schweiz Med Wochenschr 1998; 128(Suppl 95):21S / P62.
19. Roost HP, Kiinzli N, Schindler C, Jarvis D, Perruchoud AP, Ackermann-Liebrich U, Burney P,
Wiithrich B on behalf of the European Community Respiratory Health Survey. Role of current
and childhood exposure to cat and atopic sensitization (specific IgE). Schweiz Med Wochenschr
1998; 128(Suppl 95):7S/F9.
20. Weber Ch, Danuser B, Kiinzli N, Krueger H. Atemwegssymptome bei Schweizer Bauern: Eine
epidemiologische Studie der Risikofaktoren. Schweiz Med Wochenschr 1998; 128(Suppl
95): 10S / F20.
21. Kiinzli N, Grize L, Shang H, Gugger M, Fitting JW, Keller R, Karrer W, de Haller R,
Lungenliga Schweiz. Zentral erfasste Verordnungen von Sauerstoff-Langzeittherapie, Schlaf-
Apnoe Behandlung und Heimventilation in der Schweiz, 1990-1996: Kantonale Diskrepanzen.
Schweiz Med Wochenschr 1998; 128(Suppl 95):22S / P69.
22. Kiinzli N. Ackermann-Liebrich U, Brandli O, Tschopp JM; Leuenberger Ph & SAPALDIA
Team. Public Health impact of small effects of air pollution on pulmonary function. Schweiz
Med Wochenschr 1998; 128(Suppl 95):21S /P65.
23. Rotko T, Dsmoli E, Oglesby L, Katsouyanni K, Kiinzli N, Jantunen M. Smoking prevalence,
annoyance and SES-related variables in 3 European EXPOLIS cities. Epidemiology 1998: 9 (4):
S88
24. Hanninen O, Samoli E, Breugelmans O, Kruize H, Katsouyanni K, Kiinzli N, Lebret E, Jantunen
M. EXPOLIS database for exposure assessment and simulation with data from six European
cities. Epidemiology 1998: 9(4): S88.
25. Villiger B, Kiinzli N, Karrer W, et al. Wie gesund sind die Schweizer Bauern in SAPALDIA?
(abstract). Schweiz Med Wochenschr 1997; 127(Suppl 84):P31.
26. Kiinzli N, Lurman F, Balmes J, Tager I. Langzeitauswirkungen von Ozon auf die
Lungenflusswerte bei Californischen College Studenten (abstract). Schweiz Med
Wochenschr 1997; 127(Suppl 84):19S-P33.
27. Kiinzli N, Schindler Ch, Brandli et al. 1st die Peak-flow Variabilitat ein niitzlicher Asthma-
Screening-Test fur die Schweizer Bevolkerung? Schweiz Med Wochenschr 1997; 127(Suppl
84):8S-F13.
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28. Kiinzli N, Schindler Ch, Brandli O, Bolognini G, Perruchoud AP, Leuenberger Ph, Karrer W,
SAPALDIA Team. Can peak flow variability be used as screening test to detect asthma in the
general population? Am J Respir Crit Care Med 1997;155(4):A78.
29. Kiinzli N, Schindler Ch, Keller R, Zellweger JP, Ackermann-Liebrich U, SAPALDIA Team.
Repeatability of lung function response to ambient ozone exposure in a large population sample.
Am J Respir Crit Care Med 1997; 155(4):A423.
30. Kiinzli N, Balmes J, Tager IB.Long-term effects of ambient ozone exposure in humans and
strategies to improve its epidemiologic assessment. Eur Respir J 1997; 10(Suppl 25):482Ss.
31. Schindler Ch, Ackermann-Liebrich U, Tschopp JM, Kiinzli N, et al. Associations between short-
term changes in air pollutant concentrations and duration of respiratory symptom episodes. Eur
Respir J 1997; 10(Suppl 25):482S.
32. Kiinzli N, Schindler C, Keller R, Zellweger J, Ackermann-Liebrich U, SAPALDIA-Team.
Predictors of lung function response status to ambient ozone exposure in a large population
sample. Am J Respir Crit Care Med 1996; 153(4):abstract.
33. Kiinzli N, Lurman F, Segal M, Ngo L, Balmes J, Tager I. Decrease of pulmonary flows with life-
time ambient ozone exposure among Californian UC Berkeley College Freshmen (abstract). J
Respir Crit Care Med 1996; 153(4):A303.
34. Kiinzli N, Cragen L, Kelly T, Ngo L, Balmes J, Tager I. Reliability of life-time activity measures
as an element of cumulative ambient ozone exposure estimates (abstract). Am J Respir Crit Care
Med 1995; 151(4(p2)):A499.
35. Kiinzli N, Ackermann-Liebrich U, Leuenberger P, Brandli O, SAPALDIA Team. Between-area
variation of time spent outdoors - a theoretical determinant of ambient air pollution exposure.
Epidemiology 1995; 6(4):S45(abstract).
36. Kiinzli N, Balmes J, Lurman F, Segal M, Tager I. Retrospective exposure assignment for
epidemiologic studies of ambient air pollution. Epidemiology 1995; 6(4):S63 (abstract).
37. Kiinzli N, Schwartz J, Leuenberger Ph., Ackermann-Liebrich U and SAPALDIA Team
Association of Environmental Tobacco Smoke at Work and Forced Expiratory Lung Function.
Am J Respir Crit Care Med 1994; 149(4):A393.
38. Kiinzli N, Keller R, Perruchoud A, Schindler Ch and SAPALDIA Team. FVC and FEV1: Team
and Fieldworker Related Variability; Quality Control in SAPALDIA Am Rev Respir Dis
1993;147(4):A368.
39. Brandli O, Keller R, Perruchoud A, Kiinzli N, Schindler Ch.Lung function in healthy never
smoking adults: increase of variability with age. Euro Respir J 1993; 6(Suppl 17):492S.
40. Kiinzli N, Leuenberger Ph, Ackermann-Liebrich U and SAPALDIA Team; FVC und FEV1: Die
Variability zwischen 8 Untersuchungsteams Schweiz med Wschr 1992.
41. Braun Ch, Kiinzli N, Domenighetti G, Rutishauser MAuswirkungen von Ozon auf die
Lungenfunktion von Schulkindern: Eine Pilotstudie Schweiz med Wschr 1992, 122 Suppl. 47:11.
42. Kiinzli N, Kaiser R, Rapp R, Ackermann-Lierbrich Brandli O, Tschopp JM, Leuenberger Ph and
SAPALDIA Team. Public Health impact of small effects of air pollution on pulmonary function.
Epidemiology 1998: 9(4): S65.
43. Kiinzli N. Personal Exposure data in air pollution epidemiology for long-term health
effects. Epidemiology 1998; 9(4): S69.
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44. Saarela K, Laine-Ylijoki J, Jurvelin J, Jantunen M, Katsouyanni K, Sram R, Kiinzli N. The
EXPOLIS study: occurrence of VOCs in microenvironments of four European cities and the
exposure of the population. Epidemiology 1999; 10(4) Suppl.: S52 abstr 93 P.
45. Kiinzli N, Medina S, Kaiser R, Studnicka M, Oberfeld G, Sommer H. Assessment of air
pollution attributable deaths: times-series or cohort studies? Epidemiology 1999;
10(4)Suppl.:S163 abstr 493 O.
46. Schindler C, Wang H, Kiinzli N. Associations between air pollution and daily mortality in 3
cities of Switzerland (APHEA-2). Epidemiology 1999; 10(4) Suppl.:S46 abstr 67 O.
47. Braun-Fahrlander Ch, Wyler C, Kiinzli N, Schindler Ch, Ackermann-Liebrich U, Perruchoud
AP, Leuenberger Ph, Wuthrich B, SAPALDIA Team. Exposure to motor vehicel traffic and
allergic sensitization. Epidemiology 1999; 10(4) Suppl.: S172 abstr 514 SO.
48. Roosli M, Theis G, Camenzind M, Kiinzli N, Braun-Fahrlander Ch. Spatial Variability of
different fractions of airborne particulate matter in an urban environment. Epidemiology 1999;
10(4) Suppl.: S136 abstr 397 O.
49. Jantunen M, Hanninen O, Lioy P, Katsouyanni K, Sram R, Kiinzli N, Zmirou D, Hanninenrisk
O. From short term individual to long term population exposure to PM: relation to outdoor air
levels. Epidemiology 1999; 10(4) Suppl.: S51 abstr 86 O.
50. Mathys P, Oglesby L, Stern WB, Braun-Fahrlander Ch, Jantunten M, Kiinzli N. Traffic related
PM2.5 efficiently penetrate from outdoor to indoor. (Elemental Analyses Study EAS-EXPOLIS).
Epidemiology 1999; 10(4) Suppl.: S50 abstr 83 O.
51. Vouros P, Peorpoulis L, Samoli E, Katsouyanni K, Kiinzli N, Jantunen M. Exposure to
PM2.5 and CO in micro-environments and during transportation in Athens. Epidemiology
1999; 10(4) Suppl.: S50 abstr 82 O.
52. Jayet PY, Leuenberger P, Schindler C, Schwartz J, Ackermann-Liebrich U, Bolognini G,
Bongard JP, Brandli O, Domenighetti G, Karrer W, Keller R, Kiinzli N, Medici T, Perruchoud
AP, Schoeni AP, Tschopp JM, Villiger B, Zellweger JP. Passive smoking exposure shortens the
symptom-free intervals and increases the duration of the episodes of bronchitis (SAPALDIA
Study). Posterdiskussion, Schweiz Med Wochenschr 2000; 130:Suppl.l 18:S23.
53. Kiinzli N, Schweinzer KM, Schindler C, Karrer W, Perruchoud AP, Ackermann-Liebrich U,
Schwartz J, Brandli O, Zellweger JP, Leuenberger P. Air pollution keeps you busy: A case-
crossover-analysis of doctor's visits in the Swiss Study on Air Pollution and Lung Disease in
Adults (SAPALDIA). Freie Mitteilungen, Schweiz Med Wochenschr 2000; 130:Suppl.ll8, S28.
54. Schindler C, Kiinzli N. Day-to-day changes in air pollutant levels and associated fluctuations in
respiratory hospital admissions in 3 cities of Switzerland (APHEA-2-project). Posterdiskussion,
Schweiz Med Wochenschr 2000;130:Suppl.ll8, S23.
55. Kiinzli N, Eberle T, Kahlmeier S, Braun-Fahrlander C. Climate change and health: secondary
benefits of climate policies may be more relevant. Epidemiology 2000; 11:S69 abstr 136 O.
56. Roosli M, Kiinzli N, Oglesby L, Mathys P, Theis G, Camenzind M, Braun-Fahrlander C:
Assessment of cancer risk from air pollution in the region of Basel, Switzerland. Epidemiology
2000; 11:S67 abstr 126 0.
57. Kiinzli N, Schweinzer KM, Schindler C, Karrer W, Perruchoud AP, Ackermann-Liebrich U,
Schwartz J, Brandli O, Zellweger JP, Leuenberger P and SAPALDIA Team. Daily air pollution
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Nino Kiinzli
and doctor's visit in the Swiss study on air pollution and lung disease in adults (SAPALDIA):
time-to-effect depends on underlying health status. Eur Respir J 2000; abstract.
58. Kiinzli N. What are the Costs and What Can be Done. Global Respiratory Symposium on Air
Pollution. World Congress on Lung Health and 10th ERS. Eur Respir J 2000; abstract.
59. Dibbert B, Kiinzli N, Schweinzer K, Ackermann-Liebrich U, Keller R, Brandli O, Perruchoud A,
Schindler C, Leuenberger Ph. Variability of lung parameters due to the use of different
spirometers. Forum Med Suisse 2001; Suppl 2:45S.
60. Naef R, Hazenkamp-von Arx M, Krzyzanowski M, Ackermann-Liebrich U, Xhillari D, Hoek G,
Burney P, Heinrich J, Sunyer J, de Marco R, Vermeire P, Forsberg B, Jarvis D, Kiinzli N.
Ambient air pollution data from 37 study centres of the European Community Respiratory Health
Survey 1980-1999. Epidemiology 2001; 12(4):S48.
61. Schindler C, Kiinzli N, Ackermann-Liebrich U. Day-to-day changes in air pollutant levels and
fluctuations in daily mortality and hospital admissions in 3 cities of Switzerland (APHEA-2-
project). Forum Med Suisse 2001; Suppl 2: 20S.
62. Kaiser R, Kiinzli N, Schwartz J. The impact of PM10 on infant mortality in 8 US cities. Am J
Respir Crit Care Med 2001; 163(5):A881.
63. Hazenkamp-von Arx M, Naef R, Oglesby L, Ackermann-Liebrich U, Weniger H, Sunyer J,
Heinrich J, Poli A, Villani S, Jarvis D, Luczynska Ch, Forsberg B, Norback D, Toren K, Soon A,
Kiinzli N. PM2.5 assessment at 24 study centres (European Community Respiratory Health
Survey II). Epidemiology 2001; 12(4):S48.
64. Kiinzli N, Ackermann-Liebrich U, Braun-Fahrlander C. Long-term air pollution exposure-
chronic health conditions. A conceptual framework. Epidemiology 2001; 12(4):S56.
65. Bornehag CG, Bonini S, Custovic A, Kiinzli N, Malmberg P, Matricardi P, Skerfving S,
Sigsgaard T, Verhoeff A, Sundell J. Dampness in buildings as a risk factor for health effects,
euroexpo. Multidisciplinary review of the literature (1998-2000) on dampness and mite exposure
in buildings and health effects. Epidemiology 2001; 12(4):S94.
66. Kaiser R, Romieu I, Kiinzli N, Medina S. Assessing the Health Impact of Air Pollution in Latin
America - Chances and Needs. Epidemiology 2000;11(4):S73.
67. Mathys P, Stern WB, Oglesby L, Koistinen K, Braun-Fahrlander C, Ackermann-Liebrich U,
Jantunen M, Kiinzli N. Chemical fingerprinting of PM2.5 sampled in five European cities.
Epidemiology 2001; 12(4) S34.
68. Oglesby L, Gotschi T, Mathys P, Koistinnen K, Polanska L, Jantunen M, Katsouyanni K, Sram
R, Kiinzli N. Black Smoke - a relevant indicator of human exposure to outdoor air pollution.
Results of the European EXPOLIS study. Epidemiology 2001; 12(4): S33.
69. Hazenkamp M, Sunyer J, Heinrich J, Forsberg B, Jarvis D, Burney P, Kiinzli N. PM2.5
Assessment at 21 Study Centers of ECRHS II (European Community Respiratory Health Survey
II). 1,3. Eur Respir J, 2002.
70. Hazenkamp M, Oglesby L, Ackermann-Liebrich U, Sunyer J, Heinrich J, Poli A, Bono R,
Luczynska Ch, Forsberg B, Norback D, Pfeifer A, Soon A, Kiinzli N, on behalf of ECRHS II.
PM2 5 Assessment at 21 Study Centers of ECRHS II (European Community Respiratory Health
Survey II). Epidemiology, 2002; 13(4): S150 abst 397.
71. Oglesby L, Roosli M, Kiinzli N, Waser M, Neu U, Braun-Fahrlander C, SCARPOL Team.
Repeated cross-sectional health effects analysis in children with different indicators of ambient
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Nino Kiinzli
air pollution (PM10, PM2.5, N02) - Results of the SCARPOL study. Epidemiology, 2002;
13(4):S236 (869).
72. Gotschi T, Hazenkamp M, Burney P, Jarvis D, de Marco R, Verlato G, Villani S, Vermeire P,
Maldonado Perez J, Payo Losa F, Toren K, Sunyer J, Heinrich J, Kiinzli N, on behalf of ECRHS
II, N02 Assessment and Comparison with PM2.5 Measurements at 21 Study Centers of ECRHS II
(European Community Respiratory Health Survey II). Epidemiology, 2002; 13 (4):S150 (396).
73. Kiinzli N, Schindler Ch, Probst-Hensch N, Tschopp JM, Keller R, Leuenberger Ph, Ackermann-
Liebrich U, and SAPALDIA Team. Long-term Exposure to Ambient Air Pollution: the
Reduction in FEV1 is Consistent with the Observed Decrease in Life-expectancy. Epidemiology,
2002; 13(4): S237 (875).
74. Jantunen M, Nieuwenheuijsen M, Kiinzli N, Zmirou D, Sram R, Katsouyanni K, Maroni M.
Peronsal PM2.5 exposures, residential and workplace indoor and residential outdoor
concentrations: comparison of seven European cities in the EXPOLIS Study. Epidemiology,
2002; 13(4): S238 (881).
75. Hazenkamp M, Jordi Sunyer, Joachim Heinrich, Bertil Forsberg, Deborah Jarvis, Peter Burney,
Nino Kiinzli. PM2.5 assessment at 21 study centres of ECRHS II (European community
respiratory health survey II). Eur Respir J 2002; 20 (Suppl 38): 131s P863
76. Anderson R, Cohen A, Krzyzanowski M, Kiinzli N, Ostro B, Pope AC, Romieu I, Samet J,
Smith K, Tsai F, Gutschmidt K, Ezzati M, Pandey K, Wheeler D. The Contribution of
combustion source particulate air pollution to the global burden of disease
Epidemiology, 2002; 13 (4): S92 (063)
77. Kuna-Dibbert B, Kiinzli N, Schweinzer KM, Ackermann-Liebrich U., Variability of lung
function parameters due to use of different spirometers. Eur Respir J 2002; 20 (38) Suppl.:516S,
abstr. P3219.
BOOK OR ARTICLE REVIEWS
1. Kiinzli N.
Kommentar zu Samet et al, NEJM 2000; 343 (24): 1742-9 Fine particulate air pollution and
mortality in 20 U.S. Cities 1987-1994.
Infomed2001; 05 (2): 14 (http://www.infomed.org/screen/scrcomm27.html)
LETTERS TO EDITORS AND REPLY TO LETTERS
1. Brandli O, Schindler C, Leuenberger Ph, Baer X, Degens P, Kiinzli N, Keller R, Perruchoud AP.
Re-estimated equations for the 5thpercentiles of lung function variables (letter).
Thorax, 1999; 55; 2:173-74.
2. Kunzli N, Tager IB
Comments on "PM2.5 and mortality in long-term prospective cohort studies: cause-effect or
statistical associations?" Letter to Gamble J Env Health Perspect 1999; 107 (5): A234-5
Environ Health Perspect, 1999; May;107(5):A234-6.
3. Kunzli N.
Contribution of Traffic to PM2.5 Exposure: 30% - or even considerably more? Commentary.
Inhal Toxicol, 2000; 12(Suppl 2): 3-5.
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4. Kiinzli N, Kaiser R, Medina S.
Reply to Martuzzi M. Letter regarding: Assessment of air pollution attributable deaths: should
we use time-series or cohort study based risk estimates?
Am J Epidemiol, 2001; Vol. 154, 10: 974-5.
5. Kiinzli N, Kaiser R, Medina S, Filliger P.
Authors reply to letters of Haug et al, Bellander T, Lewis and Lewis reg. Public Health and Air
Pollution. Lancet, 2001; 357: 69-71.
6. Braun-Fahrlander C, Kiinzli N. answer to letter of Barrass F, Miah R, Ramsey C, Sinha II, Motor
Vehicle Traffic Exposure and Allergic Sensitization. Epidemiology, 2000; Jan;12(l): 137-38.
CHAPTERS
1. Filliger P, Seethaler R, Kiinzli N, Sommer H. Externe Gesundheitskosten durch
verkehrsbedingte Luftverschmutzung - eine Dreilanderstudie von Osterreich, Frankreich und der
Schweiz. Page 109-118. In: Torricelli GP und Scheurer Th (Hrsg.).: Verkehr und Mobilitat.
Bedrohung und Herausforderung fur die Alpen des 21. Jahrhunderts. Tagungsband der 5.
Nationalen Tagung zur Alpenforschung. Verkehr und Umwelt, NFP41. Bern, 2000
(www. admin. ch/e dmz).
2. Seethaler R, Ackermann-Liebrich U, Kiinzli N,Wanner HU, Fuchs A, Karrer M, Kogelschatz D,
Sommer H. Die externen Gesundheiskosten des Verkehrs (1993). Kaspar C, Laesser C editor. In:
Jahrbuch der Schweizerischen Verkehrswirtschaft 1996/97. St.Gallen: Institut fur Tourismus und
Verkehrswirtschaft an der Hochschule St.Gallen, 1997: 99-120.
3. Eberle T, Braun-Fahrllander Ch, Kiinzli N. Secondary Benefits von Treibhausgas-Reduktionen
fur die Gesundheit. Synthese. S. 15-27 In: Sekundarnutzen (Secondary Benefits) von
Treibhausgas-Reduktionen. Workshopsynthese. Beratendes Organ fur Fragen der
Klimaanderung, OcCC. Bern, August 2000.
4. Ackermann-Liebrich U, Kiinzli N, Leuenberger P and SAPALDIA team. Air pollution exposure
and asthma - the Swiss study on air pollution and lung diseases in adults (SAPALDIA) in:
Ackermann-Liebrich U, Riidnai P (Eds): EC (COST) - East Europe Workshop on Air Pollution
Epidemiology Brussels, 1992: Commission of the European Communities: COST 613/2 Report 3
(EUR 14347 EN).
5. Sommer H, Kiinzli N, Seethaler, Chanel O, Herry M, Vergnaud J-C, Filliger P, Kaiser R, Horak
F. Jr., Medina S, Puybonnieux-Texier, Quenel P, Schneider J, Studnicka M. Health Costs due to
Road Traffic-related Air Pollution. An impact assessment project of Austria, France and
Switzerland. In: Ancillary Benefits and Costs of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation: Proceedings from
an Expert Workshop. OECD Report. OECD, New York; 2000.
6. Kiinzli N, Kaiser R, Seethaler R. Quantitative Risikoabschatzung - Luft. In: Wichmann,
Schlipkoter, Fiillgraf (Editors). Handbuch Umweltmedizin; 22. Erg.-Lfg. (2001).
7. Seethaler R, Sommer H, Kiinzli N. Monetarisierung von umweltbedingten Gesundheitsschaden -
Luft Kapitel III, 1.6.2. In: Wichmann, Schlipkoter, Fiillgraf (Editors) Handbuch Umweltmedizin;
23. Erg.-Lfg. (2001).
8. Braun-Fahrlander Ch, Kiinzli N. Umwelt und Gesundheit. in: Kolip, P. (Hrsg.):
Einfiihrung in die Gesundheitswissenschaften. Weinheim; Juventa. 2002.
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Nino Kiinzli
9. Kiinzli N. The Public Health Relevance of Air Pollution Abatement. In: D'Amato G, Holgate
S.T. (editors). The Impact of Air Pollution on Respiratory Health, European Respiratory
Monograph, 2002, 21, 200-218. Chapter 15
10. Cohen AJ, Anderson HR, Ostro B, Pandey KD, Krzyzanowski M, Kuenzli N, Gutschmidt
K, Pope CA, Romieu I, Samet JM, Smith K. Mortality Impacts of Urban Air Pollution. In:
Ezzati M, Lopez AD, Rodgers A, Murray CJL (Eds). Comparative Quantification of Health
Risks: Global and Regional Burden of Disease Attributable to Selected Major Risk Factors.
Geneva: World Health Organization, 2003 (In Press)
BOOKS
1. Kiinzli N, Braun-Fahrlander Ch, Gysler R, Leuenberger Ph, Rapp R, Sennhauser F, Stupf R,
Wanner HU.Luftverschmutzung und Gesundheit. Herausgeber: Aerzte fur Umweltschutz
Schweiz. Basel 1997 (ISBN 3-907087-06-23; (Air Pollution and Health, German; with
translations in French and Italian).
2. NRC (National Research Council). 2002. Estimating Public Health Benefits of
Proposed Air Pollution Regulation. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.
MISCELLANEOUS (Thesis and Anonymous Large Committee Publications)
1. Kiinzli N
Long-term effects of life-time ambient ozone exposure on pulmonary function based on
consideration of residential history and time-activity patterns. Thesis Doctor of Philosophy
(PhD) in Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of California Berkeley. May 1996.
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George Christakos
B.3 George Christakos
Director, Center for the Advanced Study of the Environment
Professor, Department of Environmental Sciences and Engineering
CB# 7431, Room 111 Rosenau Hall
School of Public Health
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Chapel Hill, NC 27599-7431
Adjunct Professor, Department of Statistics
New West, Cameron Ave.
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3260
Member, Center of Environmental Health and Susceptibility
Member, Environmental Assessment & Control Focus Group
Phone (Office): 919-966-1767
(Lab): 919-966-1173
Fax (Office): 919-966-7911
Email: george_christakos@unc.edu
Education
PhD Applied Sciences, Harvard University, USA
PhD Mining and Metallurgical Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, Greece
MS Civil Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USA
MSc Soil Mechanics and Foundation Engineering, University of Birmingham, UK
Diploma in Civil Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, Greece
Editorial positions
Editor in Chief:
Journal of Stochastic Environmental Research & Risk Assessment
Editorial boards:
Advances in Water Resources
Environmental and Ecological Statistics
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George Christakos
Research Activities
Multi-disciplinary integration theories in uncertain environments (coupled human and natural
systems, conceptual blending and knowledge synthesis techniques)
Theoretical and computational modelling of natural systems
Environmental health and human exposure assessment
Modern geostatistics and spatiotemporal statistics
Fluid dynamics
Flow and transport processes in subsurface systems
Advanced stochastic PDE techniques (diagrammatic, space transformation, and differential
geometry techniques)
Natural hierarchy of scales and upscaling analysis
Stochastic logic and random field theory
Atmospheric pollution monitoring and control
Medical geography
Spatiotemporal epidemiology
Toxicokinetics models
Decision analysis and risk assessment
Publications
Books
Christakos, G., P. Bogaert, and M.L. Serre, 2002, Temporal GIS, Springer-Verlag, New York, N.Y., 220
p., CD-ROM included.
Christakos, G., 2000, Modern Spatiotemporal Geostatistics, Oxford University Press, New York, NY,
304 p. (3rd reprint, 2001).
Christakos, G., and D.T. Hristopulos, 1998, Spatiotemporal Environmental Health Modelling: A
Tractatus Stochasticus, Kluwer Acad. Publ., Boston, MA, 423 p.
Christakos, G., 1992, Random Field Models in Earth Sciences, Academic Press, San Diego, CA, USA,
474 p., out of print.
Christakos, G., I. Clark, M. David, A.G. Journel, D.G. Krige, and R.A. Olea, 1991, Geostatistical
Glossary and Multilingual Dictionary, Oxford Univ. Press, Oxford, UK, 111 p.
Christakos, G., 2004, Multidisciplinary Systems in Uncertain Environments. In preparation-under
contract with Springer-Verlag, New York, NY.
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George Christakos
Selected Recent Articles
2004
Kovitz, J.and G. Christakos, "Assimilation of fuzzy data by the BME method", Stock. Environmental
Res. & Risk Asess., in press, 2004.
2003
Christakos, G., A. Kolovos, M.L. Serre and F. Vukovich, "Total ozone mapping by integrating data bases
from remote sensing instruments and empirical models", IEEE Trans. Geoscience & Remote Sensing, in
press, 2003.
Christakos, G., "Critical conceptualism in environmental modelling and prediction", Environmental
Science & Technology, in press, 2003.
Kolovos, A., G. Christakos and M.L. Serre, "Visual representations of non-separable spatiotemporal
covariance models", CASE News, in press, 2003.
Serre, M.L., A. Kolovos, G. Christakos and K. Modis, "An application of the holistochastic human
exposure methodology to naturally occurring Arsenic in Bangladesh drinking water", Risk Analysis,
23(3), 515-528.
Choi, K-M, M.L. Serre and G. Christakos, "Efficient mapping of California mortality fields at different
spatial scales", Journal of Exposure Analysis and Environmental Epidemiology, 13(2), 120-133, 2003.
Christakos, G., "Another look at the conceptual fundamentals of porous media upscaling", Stoch.
Environmental Res. & Risk Asess., in press, 2003.
Law, D.G., M.L. Serre, G. Christakos, P.A. Leone and W.C. Miller, "Spatiotemporal changes in
Chlamydial infection and persistence of the core", Epidemiology, submitted, 2003.
Serre, M.L., G. Christakos, H. Li and C.T. Miller, "A BME solution of the inverse problem", Stoch.
Environmental Res. & Risk Asess., in press, 2003.
Christakos, G., "The Study of Uncertainty in Life Support Systems", In Encyclopedia of Life Support
Systems, UNESCO, London, UK, in press, 2003.
Savelieva, E., V. Demyanov, M. Kanevski, M.L. Serre and G. Christakos, "BME application in
uncertainty assessment of the Chernobyl fallout", Pedometrics 2003, 5th Conf. of the Provisional
Commission on Pedometrics of the Intern. Unio of Soil Sciences, Reading, U.K., Sept. 2003.
2002
Christakos, G., "On a deductive logic-based spatiotemporal random field theory", Probability Theory
and Mathematical Statistics (Teoriya Imovirnostey ta Matematychna Statystyka), 66, 54-65, 2002.
Christakos, G., "On the assimilation of physical knowledge bases: Bayesian and non-Bayesian
techniques", Advances Water Resour, 25(8-12), 1257-1274, 2002.
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George Christakos
Kolovos, A., G. Christakos, M.L. Serre, and C.T. Miller, "Computational BME solution of a stochastic
advection-reaction equation in the light of site-specific information", Water Resour. Res., 38(12), 1318-
1334, 2002.
Serre, M.L. and G. Christakos, "BME-based hydrologic parameter estimation in groundwater flow
modelling", Model CARE2002, 566-570, Prague, Czech Rep., 2002.
Christakos, G., "Conceptual framework of physical knowledge synthesis in uncertain environments",
Keynote talk, Model CARE2002, 535-539, Prague, Czech Rep., 2002.
Kovitz, J.and G. Christakos, "Spatial statistics of clustered data", Technometrics, submitted, 2002.
Law, D.G., M.L. Serre, G. Christakos, P.A. Leone and W.C. Miller, "The spatial distribution of sexually
transmitted diseases reported in Wake County, North Carolina", American Jou. of Public Health,
submitted, 2002.
Serre, M.L., G. Christakos and S-J Lee, "Global BME mapping of ozone distribution by assimilating soft
information and data from TOMS and SBUV instruments on the Nimbus 7 satellite", GeoEnv2002, 4th
European Confer, on Geostatistics for Envir. Appl's, Barcelona, Spain, Nov. 27-29, 2002.
G. Christakos and M.L. Serre, "Soft data space/time mapping of coarse particulate matter annual
arithmetic average over the US", GeoEnv2002, 4th European Confer, on Geostatistics for Envir. Appl's,
Barcelona, Spain, Nov. 27-29, 2002.
Choi, K-M, G. Christakos and M.L. Wilson, "A new multi-scale modelling approach for space/time
random field estimation", Joint Intern. Symp. on Geospatial Theory, Processing & Appl's, Ottawa,
Canada, July 9-12, 2002.
Serre, M.L. and G. Christakos "Efficient exposure mapping across space-time of particulate matter in the
\JS,\AirPollution2002, Segovia, Spain, July 1-3, 2002.
2001
Christakos, G. "Stochastic Modelling of Human Exposure". In Encyclopedia of Environmentrics, A. H.
El-Shaarawi & W W. Piegorsch (eds.), Vol. 3, 1290-1296, J. Wiley & Sons, Ltd., Chichester, 2001.
Christakos, G., M.L. Serre and J. Kovitz, "BME representations of particulate matter in the State of
California". Jour. Geophysical Research-D, 106(D9), 9717-9732, 2001.
D'Or, D., P. Bogaert, and G. Christakos, "Applications of BME to soil texture mapping," Stoch. Envir.
Res. & Risk Assess., 15(1), 87-100,2001.
Hristopulos, D. T., and G. Christakos, Practical calculation of non-Gaussian multivariate moments in
BME analysis, Mathematical Geology, 33(5), 543-568, 2001.
Choi, K-M, M. L. Serre, and G. Christakos. "Space/time BME analysis and mapping of mortality in
California". In Proc. of the 53rd Session of Inter. Statistical Inst., Seoul, S. Korea, 22-29 August, 2001.
Serre, M.L., G. Christakos, J. Howes and A.G. Abdel-Rehiem, "Powering an Egyptian air quality
information system with the BME space/time analysis toolbox: Results from the Cairo baseline year
study", Geostatistics for Environmental Applications, 91-100, Monestiez etal. (eds.), Kluwer Acad.
Publ., Dordrecht, the Netherlands, 2001.
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George Christakos
Christakos, G., M.L. Serre, V. Demyanov, M. Kanevski, E. Savelieva, S. Chernov and V. Timonin,
"BME analysis of neural network residual data from the Chernobyl fallout: Bayesian and non-Bayesian
approaches", Geostatistics for Environmental Applications, 509-510, Monestiez etal. (eds.), Kluwer
Acad. Publ., Dordrecht, the Netherlands, 2001.
Kolovos, A., M. L. Serre and G. Christakos. "Spatial mapping of arsenic in groundwater and associated
population health effects." Superfund Annual Research Symposium, November 5, Chapel Hill, NC, 2001.
Kolovos, A., G. Christakos, and M. L. Serre. "BME mapping of pollutants governed by advection-
reaction." Superfund Annual Research Symposium, November 5, Chapel Hill, NC, 2001.
Augustiraj, R., M. L. Serre and G. Christakos. "Modelling the spatiotemporal distribution of subsurface
heavy metal contamination at the Cherrypoint, North Carolina Superfund site". Superfund Annual
Research Symposium, November 5, Chapel Hill, NC, 2001.
2000
Christakos, G., D.T. Hristopulos and P. Bogaert, "On the physical geometry hypotheses at the basis of
spatiotemporal analysis ofhydrologic geostatistics," Advances in Water Resources, 23, 799-810, 2000.
Christakos, G. and V. Papanicolaou, "Norm-dependent covariance permissibility of weakly homogeneous
spatial random fields and its consequences in spatial statistics," Stoch. Envir. Res. & Risk Assess., 14(6),
471-478, 2000.
Christakos, G., D. T. Hristopulos, and A. Kolovos, "Stochastic flowpath analysis of multiphase flow in
random porous media," SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics, 60(5), 1520-1542, 2000.
Christakos, G. and M. L. Serre, "BME analysis of particulate matter distributions in North Carolina,"
Atmospheric Environment, 34, 3393-3406, 2000.
Christakos, G. and M. L. Serre, "A spatiotemporal study of environmental exposure-health effect
associations," Journal of Exposure Analysis and Environmental Epidemiology, 10(2), 168-187, 2000.
Christakos, G., M.L. Serre, V. Demyanov, V.M. Kanevski, E. Saveliera, S. Chernov, and V. Timonin,
"Neural network residual BME analysis of Chernobyl fallout-Part II: Bayesian and Non-Bayesian
approaches", In Proc. GeoEnv2000 (3rd Europ. on Geostatistics for Envir. Appl's), Avignon, France,
Nov. 22-24, 2000.
Demyanov, V., V.M. Kanevski, E. Saveliera, S. Chernov, V. Timonin, G. Christakos, and M.L. Serre,
"Neural network residual BME analysis of Chernobyl fallout-Part I", In Proc. GeoEnv2000 (3rd Europ.
on Geostatistics for Envir. Appl's), Avignon, France, Nov. 22-24, 2000.
Kolovos, A., G. Christakos, and M.L. Serre, "Incorporation of physical knowledge and other forms of
knowledge in spatiotemporal prediction ofhydrologic processes", In EOS Trans. Amer. Geophysical
Union, San Francisco, CA, 2000.
Kovitz, J.L., G. Christakos, and M.L. Serre, "BME analysis of space/time distributions of PM10 over
California", In Proc. ISEA2000 (Intern. Soc. of Exposure Analysis), Monterey Pennisula, CA, Oct. 24-27,
2000.
Serre, M.L., G. Christakos, and J. Howes, "Powering an Egyptian air quality information system with the
BME space/time analysis toolbox: Results from the Cairo baseline year study", In Proc. GeoEnv2000
(3rd Europ. on Geostatistics for Envir. Appl's), Avignon, France, Nov. 22-24, 2000.
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George Christakos
Law, D.G., W.C. Miller, G. Christakos, K. Blue, M. Smurzynski, K.K. Fox, P.A. Leone, "Deriving a
surface of Chlamydial infection rates using geostatistics", In Proc. of 2000 National Sexually Transmitted
Diseases Prevention Confer., Milwaukee, Wisconsin, Dec. 4-7, 2000.
1999
Christakos, G., Review of "GeoEnvi-Geostatistics for Environmental Applications," by A. Soares, J.
Gomez-Hernandez and R. Froidevaux (eds.), Journal of Environmental Geosciences, (5(1), 1-4, 1999.
Christakos, G., and A. Kolovos, "A study of the spatiotemporal health impact of ozone exposure", Jour.
Exposure Analysis and Environmental Epidemiology, 9(4), 322-335, 1999.
Christakos, G., D.T. Hristopulos, and M.L. Serre, "BME studies of stochastic differential equations
representing physical laws-Part I", In Proc. of 5th Annual Confer, of the Intern. Assoc. for Mathematical
Geology, Trodheim, Norway, 1, 63-68, 1999.
Hristopulos, D. T., G. Christakos and M. Serre, "Implementation of a space transformation approach for
solving the three-dimensional flow equation", SIAM Journal on Scientific Computing, 20(2), 619-647,
1999.
Hristopulos, D. T., G. Christakos, "Renormalization group analysis of permeability scaling", Stoch
Environ Res & Risk Assess, 13(2), 131-160, 1999.
Hristopulos, D. T., G. Christakos and M. Serre, "Monte Carlo calculations of single-phase effective
permeability in 2D anisotropic porous media", Bull. Amer. Physical Soc., 44(6), 23, 1999.
Serre, M. L., and G. Christakos, "Modern geostatistics: Computational BME in the light of uncertain
physical knowledgeThe Equus Beds Study," Stoch Environ Res & Risk Assess, 13(1), 1-26, 1999.
1998
Cassiani, G., and G. Christakos, Analysis and estimation of spatial non-homogeneous natural processes
using secondary information, Mathematical Geology, 30( 1), 57-76, 1998.
Christakos, G., Spatiotemporal information systems in soil and envirnonmental sciences, Geoderma,
85(2-3), 141-179, 1998.
Christakos, G., and D. T. Hristopulos, Stochastic indicator analysis of contaminated sites, Journal of
Applied Probability, 34(4), 988-1008, 1998.
Christakos, G., D.T. Hristopulos and X. Li, "Multiphase flow in heterogeneous porous media: A
stochastic differential geometry viewpoint," Water Resources Research, 34( 1), 93-102, 1998.
Christakos, G., and X. Li, Bayesian Maximum Entropy Analysis and Mapping: A Farewel to Kriging
Estimators? Mathematical Geology, 30(4), 435-463, 1998.
Christakos, G., and V. M. Vyas, A composite spatiotemporal study of ozone distribution over eastern
United States, Atmospheric Environment, 32(16), 2845-2857, 1998.
Christakos, G., and V. M. Vyas, A novel method for studying the health impacts of spatiotemporal ozone
distribution over eastern United States, Soc. Sci. Medicine, 47(8), 1051-1066, 1998.
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George Christakos
Miller, C. T., G. Christakos, P. T. Imhoff, J. F. McBride, J. A. Pedit, and J. A. Trangenstein, Multiphase
flow and transport modeling in heterogeneous porous media: Challenges and approaches, Advances in
Water Resources, 21(2), 77-120, 1998.
1997
Bogaert, P., and G. Christakos, Spatiotemporal analysis and processing of thermometric data over
Belgium, Journal of Geophysical Research, 102(D22), 25,831-25,846, 1997.
Christakos, G., and D.T. Hristopulos, Stochastic Radon Operators in Porous Media Hydrodynamics,
Quarterly of Applied Mathematics, LV(1), 89-112, 1997.
Christakos, G., D. T. Hristopulos, and X. Li, Multiphase flow in heterogeneous porous media: A
stochastic differential geometry viewpoint, Water Resources Research, 34(1), 93-102, 1997.
Christakos, G., and J. Lai, A study of the breast cancer dynamics in North Carolina, Soc. Sci. Medicine,
45(10), 1503-1517, 1997.
Hristopulos, D. T., and G. Christakos, A variational calculation of the effective fluid permeability of
heterogeneous media, Physical Review E, 55(6), 7288-7298, 1997.
Vyas, V. M., and G. Christakos, Spatiotemporal analysis and mapping of sulfate deposition data over the
conterminous USA, Atmospheric Environment, 31(12), 3623-3633, 1997.
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