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Photo Credits - Cover Page
Top left: Photo by Tim McCabe, USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service
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EPA/600/R-08/088F
May 2009
BASINS 4.0 Climate Assessment Tool (CAT): Supporting
Documentation and User's Manual
Global Change Research Program
National Center for Environmental Assessment
Office of Research and Development
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Washington, DC 20460
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DISCLAIMER
This document has been reviewed in accordance with U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency policy and approved for publication. Mention of trade names or commercial products
does not constitute endorsement or recommendation for use.
Preferred citation:
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). (2009) BASINS 4.0 Climate Assessment Tool
(CAT): supporting documentation and user's manual. National Center for Environmental
Assessment, Washington, DC; EPA/600/R-08/088F. Available from the National Technical
Information Service, Springfield, VA, and online at http://www.epa.gov.
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CONTENTS
LIST OF FIGURES v
PREFACE vi
AUTHORS AM) REVIEWERS vii
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1-1
2. INTRODUCTION 2-1
2.1. BASINS CAT GOALS AM) APPROACH 2-2
3. BASINS CAT METHODS AND CAPABILITIES 3-1
3.1. BASINS 3-1
3.2. HSPF 3-3
3.3. CLIMATE ASSESSMENT TOOL (CAT) CAPABILITIES 3-5
3.3.1. Tools for Developing Climate Change Scenarios 3-6
3.3.2. Tools for Assessing Hydrologic and Water Quality Endpoints 3-19
3.3.3. Running an HSPF Simulation Using BASINS CAT 3-20
3.3.4. Tools for Summarizing and Visualizing Results 3-20
3.3.5. Using Scripts to Automate BASINS CAT Applications 3-22
4. OVERVIEW OF BASINS CAT 4-1
4.1. COMPONENTS OF BASINS CAT INTERFACE 4-1
4.1.1. Climate Data 4-5
4.1.2. Assessment Endpoints 4-12
4.1.3. Running an Assessment 4-16
4.1.4. Viewing Results 4-18
5. TUTORIALS 5-1
5.1. TOOLS FOR DEVELOPING CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS 5-7
5.1.1. Modify Historical Precipitation Records 5-7
5.1.2. Modify Historical Air Temperature Records and Regenerate
Evapotranspiration Record 5-39
5.1.3. Combine Multiple Changes to Create a Climate Change Scenario 5-65
5.1.4. Creating Spatially Variable Climate Change Scenarios at Multiple
Locations 5-68
5.1.5. Create Synthetic Climate Change Scenarios 5-68
5.1.6. Exporting Climate Change Scenarios as ASCII Text Files 5-77
5.2. TOOLS FOR ASSESSING HYDROLOGIC AND WATER QUALITY
ENDPOINTS 5-81
5.2.1. Endpoint Options 5-81
5.2.2. Specify Value Ranges of Concern 5-88
5.2.3. Specify Time Periods of Concern (Seasonal and/or Partial Records) 5-91
5.3. RUNNING AN HSPF SIMULATION USING BASINS CAT 5-94
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CONTENTS (continued)
5.4. TOOLS FOR SUMMARIZING AND VISUALIZING RESULTS 5-97
5.4.1. Results Tables 5-98
5.4.2. Pivot Tables 5-100
5.4.3. Exporting Results for Use With External Software 5-103
5.4.4. Additional BASINS Tools for Summarizing and Visualizing Results 5-106
5.5. USING SCRIPTS TO AUTOMATE BASINS CAT APPLICATIONS 5-116
6. A CASE STUDY APPLICATION OF BASINS CAT IN THE MONOCACY
RIVER WATERSHED 6-1
6.1. BACKGROUND AND GOALS 6-1
6.2. METHODS 6-2
6.2.1. Regional Climate Change Data 6-3
6.2.2. Scenario Analysis 6-3
6.3. RESULTS 6-5
6.3.1. Synthetic Scenarios 6-5
6.3.2. Model-Based Scenarios 6-7
6.4. CONCLUSIONS 6-9
7. SUPPORTING RESOURCES 7-1
7.1. CLIMATE CHANGE DATA AND INFORMATION 7-1
7.2. OTHER RESOURCES 7-2
REFERENCES R-l
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LIST OF FIGURES
3-1 U.S. EPA BASINS version 4.0 Integrated Modeling System 3-2
6-1 The Monocacy River watershed 6-2
6-2 Pivot table showing the response of mean annual nitrogen loading (pounds per
year) in the Monocacy River to changes in mean annual temperature and
precipitation based on the analysis using synthetic scenarios 6-6
6-3 Contour plot showing the response of mean annual nitrogen loading
(pounds* 1,000 per year) in the Monocacy River to changes in mean annual
temperature and precipitation based on the analysis using synthetic scenarios 6-7
6-4 Scatter plot showing the response of mean annual nitrogen loading (indicated by
the color scale in pounds* 1,000 per year) in the Monocacy River to model based
climate change scenarios from the CARA data set 6-8
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PREFACE
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Global Change Research Program (GCRP)
is an assessment-oriented program within the Office of Research and Development that focuses
on assessing how potential changes in climate and other global environmental stressors can
impact water quality, air quality, aquatic ecosystems, and human health in the United States.
The Program's focus on water quality is consistent with the Research Strategy of the U.S.
Climate Change Research Program, the federal umbrella organization for climate change science
in the United States government, and is responsive to EPA's mission and responsibilities as
defined by the Clean Water Act and the Safe Drinking Water Act. A central goal of the EPA
GCRP is to provide EPA program offices, regions, and other stakeholders with tools and
information for assessing and responding to any potential future impacts of climate change.
This report provides supporting documentation for the BASINS Climate Assessment
Tool (CAT) released with Version 4 of EPA's BASINS modeling system. BASINS CAT was
supported by the GCRP, in partnership with the EPA Office of Water, with the goal of increasing
the capacity of mangers and other stakeholders to conduct watershed based studies of the
potential implications of climate variability and change on water and aquatic resources.
This final report reflects a consideration of comments received on an External Review
Draft report dated August, 2008 (EPA/600/R-08/088), provided by an external letter peer review
and a 30-day public comment period.
Peter Preuss, Ph.D.
Director
National Center for Environmental Assessment
Office of Research and Development
U.S. Environmental Research Program
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AUTHORS AND REVIEWERS
The National Center for Environmental Assessment (NCEA), Office of Research and
Development, was responsible for preparing this final report. Preparation of the draft report was
conducted by AQUA TERRA Consultants, under EPA Contract EP-C-6-029. Dr. Thomas
Johnson served as the Technical Project Officer. Dr. Johnson provided overall direction and
technical assistance, and he contributed as an author.
AUTHORS
AQUA TERRA Consultants, Decatur, GA
Paul Hummel, John Imhoff, John Kittle Jr., and Mark Gray
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, National Center for Environmental Assessment,
Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC
Thomas Johnson
REVIEWERS
This report was much improved, and the authors are very grateful for the many excellent
and thoughtful comments provided by external peer reviewers Douglas Beyerlein, Kaye
Brubaker, Billy Johnson, and Bethany Neilson, and EPA internal peer reviewers James Carleton,
Yusuf Mohamoud, Jeffery Yang, and Rick Ziegler.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The authors thank the Global Change Research Program staff in NCEA, particularly
Chris Pyke (currently with CTG-Energetics), Britta Bierwagen, Susan Julius, and Chris Weaver
for their input and advice throughout this project. We also thank staff in the Office of Science
and Technology in the U.S. EPA's Office of Water. Their ideas and assistance contributed
greatly to this report and the development of the BASINS CAT tool.
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1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) states that "warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from
observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of
snow and ice and rising global average sea level" (IPCC, 2007). Projecting forward, continued
warming temperatures and changes in the amount, form, and intensity of precipitation are
expected, albeit with large and poorly understood regional variations.
Water and watershed systems are highly climate sensitive. Climate change could thus
impact the ability of water managers to sustainably meet water supply needs, comply with water
quality regulations, and protect aquatic ecosystems. To reduce the likelihood of future impacts,
water managers must be able to assess potential risks and opportunities, and where appropriate,
implement practices and strategies to adapt to future climatic conditions. Meeting this challenge
will require tools and information allowing water managers to incorporate consideration of
climate change in their decision-making process.
The BASINS Climate Assessment Tool (CAT) was developed in response to a widely
acknowledged need for tools and information to help water managers assess and manage the
impacts of climate variability and change. BASINS CAT was released in 2007 with Version 4 of
EPA's BASINS modeling system with the goal of increasing the capacity of BASINS users to
conduct watershed based studies of the potential implications of climate variability and change
on water and aquatic resources.
Specifically, BASINS CAT provides flexible capabilities for creating climate change
scenarios, allowing users to quickly assess a wide range of "what if' questions about how
weather and climate could affect their systems using the Hydrologic Simulation Program
FORTRAN (HSPF) watershed model. A post-processing capability is also provided for
calculating management targets (endpoints) useful to water managers from HSPF model output.
Combined with the existing capabilities of HSPF for assessing the effects of land-use change and
management practices, BASINS CAT can be used to assess the coupled effects of climate and
land-use change, and to guide the development of effective management responses.
Climate change scenarios are created with BASINS CAT by selecting and modifying an
arbitrary base period of historical temperature and precipitation data to reflect any desired future
change or changes. After selecting a period of historical data to be modified (e.g., from an
NCDC weather station used as meteorological input to a watershed model), BASINS CAT
facilitates the application of one or more operations, or adjustments, to that baseline time series.
Users can adjust historical data using standard arithmetic operators applied monthly, seasonally,
or over any other increment of time. This flexibility allows adjustments to be made reflecting
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long-term seasonal climate change, as well as short-term, year-to-year changes such as changes
in the intensity of periodic drought. In addition, adjustments to a climate variable can also be
applied uniformly to all events within a record, or be selectively applied only to those historical
events that exceed (or fall below) a specified threshold. Finally, BASINS CAT also provides a
capability for users to adjust historical data to increase or decrease the frequency of precipitation
events.
The post-processing capability provided by BASINS CAT allows users to calculate
hydrologic and water quality endpoints based on any variable or flux simulated and output by the
HSPF model. Users can specify one or more hydrologic or water quality endpoints by selecting
the appropriate HSPF output time series data, and selecting the attributes of that time series to be
calculated (e.g., sum, mean, min, max, 100-yr flood, 7Q10).
BASINS CAT is not a stand-alone model. Rather, BASINS CAT is seamlessly
integrated into the BASINS system through a series of graphical user interfaces. Application of
BASINS CAT requires a pre-existing, calibrated HSPF application, a WDM file containing
HSPF input meteorological time series, and an output file(s) to which HSPF results are output
(WDM and/or binary).
This report provides documentation and user support materials for BASINS CAT. A
general discussion of BASINS CAT methods and capabilities is provided, followed by a set of
detailed, step-by-step tutorials illustrating how to perform specific tasks using the BASIN CAT
interface. BASINS CAT supports a wide range of assessment goals including simple screening
studies, representation of more complex scenarios based on climate modeling experiments, and
systematic sensitivity analyses of watershed endpoints to specific climate drivers. This report
also includes a case study assessment illustrating one type of analysis that can be conducted
using BASINS CAT; an assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on the hydrology
and water quality of a mid-Atlantic watershed.
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2. INTRODUCTION
There is general consensus among climate scientists that human activities including the
combustion of fossil fuels and land-use change have resulted in, and will likely continue to result
in, long-term climatic change (IPCC, 2007). The 2007 Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states that "warming of the climate system
is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean
temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level" (IPCC,
2007). The global average temperature has increased 1.4°F in the last century. At the same time
many regions have experienced changes in precipitation amount and an increase in the frequency
of heavy precipitation events (i.e., the proportion of annual precipitation occurring as heavy
precipitation events; IPCC, 2007). Projecting forward, continued warming temperatures and
changes in the amount, form, and intensity of precipitation are expected, albeit with large and
poorly understood regional variations.
Water and watershed systems are directly influenced by the amount, form, seasonality,
and event characteristics of precipitation, as well as air temperature, solar radiation, and wind
that affect evaporative loss (Gleick and Adams, 2000). Changes in climate can thus be reflected
in key water management targets such as duration flow events (e.g., the 7Q10 low-flow event),
maximum water temperatures, or constituent loads required to meet a TMDL or other water
quality regulatory requirements. Such changes could impact the ability of water managers to
sustainably meet water supply needs, comply with water quality regulations, and protect aquatic
ecosystems. To reduce the likelihood of future impacts, water managers must be able to assess
climate related risk, and where appropriate, implement practices and strategies to adapt to future
climatic conditions. Meeting this challenge will require tools and information allowing water
managers to incorporate consideration of climate change into their decision-making process.
The BASINS Climate Assessment Tool (CAT) was developed in response to a widely
acknowledged need for tools and information to help water managers assess and manage the
impacts of climate variability and change (CCSP, 2003; U.S. EPA, 2008). BASINS CAT was
released with BASINS version 4 in 2007, and extends the existing capabilities of BASINS to
facilitate watershed based assessments of the potential implications of climate variability and
change on water and watershed systems using the Hydrologic Simulation Program FORTRAN
(HSPF) watershed model (Johnson and Kittle, 2006; Imhoff et al., 2007). Specifically, BASINS
CAT provides flexible capabilities for creating climate change scenarios allowing users to
quickly assess a wide range of "what if' questions about how weather and climate could affect
their systems. Combined with the existing capabilities of HSPF for assessing the effects of
land-use change and management practices, BASINS CAT can be used to assess the coupled
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effects of climate and land-use change, and to guide the development of effective management
responses.
This report provides documentation and user support materials for the BASINS CAT. It
is composed of 8 chapters. Chapter 1 is an Executive Summary, and Chapter 2 an introduction
to BASINS CAT. Chapter 3 provides a narrative description of the basic capabilities of BASINS
CAT. Chapter 4 is an overview of the BASINS CAT interface. Chapter 5 provides a set of
detailed tutorials illustrating how various tasks are completed using BASINS CAT. Chapter 6
summarizes a case study application of BASINS CAT assessing the potential impacts of climate
change on a mid-Atlantic watershed. Chapter 7 lists some supporting resources where users can
go for additional information about climate change, and Chapter 8 lists references cited
throughout the report.
2.1. BASINS CAT GOALS AND APPROACH
Despite continuing advances in our understanding of climate science and modeling, we
currently have a limited ability to predict or forecast long-term future climate at the local and
regional scales needed by water managers. A great deal is known, however, about Earth's
climate system. Climate models represent our current best understanding of how the climate
system works, and can provide much valuable information about how climate could be expected
to change in response to changes in anthropogenic forcing such as greenhouse gas emissions.
Historical and paleo records of climatic variability also provide valuable information about the
type and rates of change that are possible in different regions of the world. Even without
accurate forecasts, water managers can use this type of information to evaluate their exposure to
climate related risk, and where necessary, to guide the development of management strategies for
increasing resilience to a wide range of potential future conditions and events (Sarewitz et al.,
2000).
The basic philosophy of BASINS CAT is to provide a flexible set of capabilities for users
to create and run with the HSPF model any climate change scenario they determine to be of
interest in their specific region or watershed. As used here, the term "scenario" is a possible or
plausible future, not necessarily a probable future (IPCC-TGICA, 2007). This capability is
intended to support BASINS users interested in assessing the implications of a wide range of
"what if' questions about how changes weather and climate could affect their systems.
Scenarios can be developed based on any available information about climate change.
The IPCC Task Group on Data and Scenario Support for Impacts and Climate Analysis (TGICA)
describes three different types of scenarios based on different types of information about climate:
synthetic scenarios, analogue scenarios, and scenarios based on outputs from climate models.
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Synthetic scenarios describe techniques where particular climatic attributes are changed by a
realistic but arbitrary amount, often according to a qualitative interpretation of climate model
simulations for a region. For example, arbitrary adjustments of historical temperatures by 1, 2, 3,
and 4°C and historical precipitation by 5, 10, 15, and 20% could be applied in various
combinations to create synthetic change scenarios (IPCC-TGICA, 2007). Analogue scenarios
are constructed by identifying recorded climate regimes which may resemble the future climate
in a given region. These records can be obtained either from the past (temporal analogues) or
from a different region at the present time (spatial analogues). Model based scenarios are
developed using output from modeling experiments with Global Climate Model (GCM) and
Regional Climate Model (RCM) models that simulate the response of the global climate system
to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Ultimately, the scenarios used in an analysis
should depend on the available information about climate change and, equally as important, the
goals and requirements of a specific assessment activity. A more detailed discussion of climate
models and scenarios based on climate models is provided by the IPCC-TGICA (2007).
Climate change scenarios are created with BASINS CAT by selecting and modifying an
arbitrary base period of historical temperature and precipitation data to reflect any desired future
change or changes. After selecting a period of historical data to be modified (e.g., from an
NCDC weather station used as meteorological input to a watershed model), BASINS CAT
facilitates the application of one or more operations or "adjustments" to that baseline time series.
Because change scenarios are developed by superimposing a set of changes, or deltas, onto a
historical data set, this approach is referred to as a delta method. The advantages of this
approach are that it is relatively simple to implement, able to represent a wide range of potential
changes, and the change scenarios thus created will incorporate any spatial or temporal structure
present in observed weather records. For example, one way to develop scenarios using BASINS
CAT is to modify historical weather data from a specific location, e.g., an NCDC weather
station, to reflect the broad regional changes projected by a GCM or RCM model. Creating
scenarios in this way is a simple but effective form of spatial and temporal downscaling,
whereby coarser scale climate change information is superimposed over more spatially (e.g., an
individual NCDC weather station) and temporally detailed (e.g., daily or hourly data) historical
observations. This approach also allows the creation of scenarios at multiple locations
throughout a watershed that maintain the existing spatial correlation, which is particularly
important in large or topographically complex watersheds (e.g., by modifying existing weather
records from multiple weather stations over the same base period, the observed spatial
correlation structure is preserved).
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It is important to note that climate change information from a variety of sources can be
used to create scenarios. For example, scenarios can be developed to reflect re-occurrence of an
extreme historical condition or event, to reflect specific attributes of a projection based on a
climate modeling experiment, or be specifically designed to address a hypothesis about the
sensitivity of a hydrologic or water quality endpoint to a particular type of climate change. In
each case, the capabilities provided by BASINS CAT can be used to apply an appropriate set of
changes to a historical data set to create the desired scenarios. The scenarios used in an
assessment activity should ultimately depend on the context and goals of the assessment. A
listing of potential sources climate change data, information, and tools to support the assessment
of climate change impacts on water and watershed systems is provided in the Supporting
Resources chapter of this report.
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3. BASINS CAT METHODS AND CAPABILITIES
BASINS CAT integrates tools into the BASINS system allowing users to create climate
change scenarios by modifying historical weather data, and to use these data as the
meteorological inputs to the HSPF watershed model. A capability is also provided to calculate
specific hydrologic and water quality endpoints important to watershed management based on
HSPF model output time series data (e.g., the 100-year flood or 7Q10 low-flow event). Finally,
the BASINS CAT can be used to assess the outcomes of a single climate change scenario, or to
automate multiple HSPF runs to determine the sensitivity or general pattern of watershed
response to different types and amounts of climate change. These capabilities support a range of
assessment goals, e.g., simple screening analysis, systematic sensitivity analysis, or
implementing more detailed scenarios based on climate model projections. BASINS CAT is not
a complete or stand-alone model. Use of BASINS CAT requires an existing, calibrated HSPF
model within the BASINS system.
This chapter provides a brief introduction to BASINS and the HSPF model, followed by
a more detailed discussion of BASINS CAT tools and capabilities. A comprehensive discussion
of BASINS and HSPF is beyond the scope of this report. Supporting documentation and training
materials for BASINS and the HSPF model are available on the BASINS web page (U.S. EPA,
2001; see http://www.epa.gov/waterscience/basins/).
3.1. BASINS
EPA's BASINS modeling system is a non-proprietary, multi-purpose environmental
analysis system that integrates environmental data, analytical tools, and watershed modeling
programs to support the development of cost-effective approaches to watershed management and
environmental protection, including TMDLs (U.S. EPA, 2001; see
http://www.epa.gov/waterscience/basins/). First introduced in 1996, the BASINS system was
developed to support assessments of watershed land-use change, pollutant discharges, and
management practices on water quality (U.S. EPA, 2007).
The BASINS modeling system combines five components: (1) a comprehensive
collection of national cartographic and environmental databases, (2) environmental assessment
tools (to summarize results; establish pollutant source/impact interrelationships; and selectively
retrieve data); (3) utilities (e.g., import tool, download tool, grid projector, post-processor, and
land use, soil classification and overlay tool); (4) automated watershed characterization reports
(for eight different data types); and (5) a suite of watershed models including HSPF (Bicknell et
al., 2005), SWAT (Neitsch et al., 2005), AQUATOX (Clough and Park, 2006), and PLOAD
(U.S. EPA, 2007). Figure 3-1 illustrates the structural relationship among components of the
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BASINS system. The main interface to BASINS is provided through a non-proprietary,
open-source Geographic Information System (GIS), MapWindow
(http://www.mapwindow.org/). The GIS provides a framework for linking BASINS modeling
tools with environmental data.
:„i\
Political
Boundaries
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WDMUtil - A user interface for WDM files. This tool is particularly helpful in
developing WDM files to store both input and output time series for use by HSPF.
GenScn - A post-processing tool for comparing scenarios. GenScn contains a wide array
of output capabilities including data listing, graphical plots, and statistical analyses.
In addition, elements of the USGS SWSTAT program have been incorporated into
BASINS for statistically analyzing time-series data including duration-frequency analysis, trend
analysis, and n-day annual time series (USGS, 2008).
In a 2005 evaluation, BASINS was found to contain the most robust suite of assessment
capabilities among 37 current watershed models and modeling systems based on level of
complexity, simulation time step, hydrologic regimes, water quality constituents and BMP
simulation options (U.S. EPA, 2005).
3.2. HSPF
BASINS CAT is currently available for use with the Hydrological Simulation
Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) watershed model (Bicknell et al., 2005). HSPF is a relatively
complex, process-based mathematical model developed under joint U.S. EPA and USGS
sponsorship for simulating hydrologic and water quality processes in natural and man-made
water systems. Since it's inception in 1980, HSPF has been widely applied in the planning,
design, and operation of water resources systems, and is arguably one of the best verified
watershed models currently available. HSPF has been applied to diverse climatic regimes
including the tropical rain forests of the Caribbean, arid conditions of Saudi Arabia and the
Southwestern United States, the humid Eastern United States and Europe, and snow covered
regions of Eastern Canada.
HSPF can be applied to most watersheds using available meteorologic, watershed land
use, hydrography, management, hydrologic, and water quality data. HSPF uses this information
to simulate the watershed processes governing flow and the transport of materials over land,
through various soil zones within watersheds, and within stream channels. The model can be
configured to represent all types of land uses, offers the ability to include land-use activities and
potential management controls, allows for dynamic simulation, and can provide a detailed
representation of critical conditions associated with high flows and wet-weather conditions. The
principal model outputs include the flow rates of runoff and mass loads or concentrations of
sediment, nutrients, pesticides, and toxic chemicals at selected points within a watershed.
Three application modules are used to simulate different hydrologic/hydraulic and water
quality components within watersheds (e.g., Donigian et al., 1983; Mulkey et al., 1986;
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Johanson, 1989; Linker et al., 1998; AQUA TERRA and HydroQual, 2001): PERLND,
IMPLND, and RCHRES.
PERLND is used to simulate the water quality and quantity processes that occur on
pervious land areas. Three flow pathways are represented: overland flow, interflow, and
groundwater flow. Snow accumulation and melt are also represented. Major capabilities of the
PERLND module include the simulation of water budget and runoff components, snow
accumulation and melt, sediment production and removal, accumulation and washoff of
user-defined nonpoint pollutants, nitrogen and phosphorus fate and runoff, and pesticide fate and
runoff.
IMPLND is used for impervious land surfaces, primarily urban land categories, where
little or no infiltration occurs. IMPLND simulates the movement or washing off of water, solids,
and other pollutants from the land surface by moving downslope to a pervious area, stream
channel, or reservoir. IMPLND also offers the capability to simulate the accumulation and
removal of urban solids (i.e., solids on impervious areas) by processes that are independent of
storm events (e.g., street cleaning, decay, wind deposition, or scour).
RCHRES, the instream module of HSPF, simulates the flow of water and associated
water quality constituents within stream channels and mixed reservoirs. RCHRES capabilities
include flow routing by kinematic wave methods, migration of cohesive and non-cohesive
sediments between suspension in water and the bed, complex biochemical transformations,
adsorption/desorption between dissolved and sediment-associated phases, and detailed
representation of processes affecting instream dynamics of BOD, nitrogen, phytoplankton, and
pH.
Detailed HSPF documentation including User's Manuals, tutorial exercises, technical
notes, and FAQs relating to all aspects of watershed modeling can be found on the BASINS web
site: http://www.epa.gov/waterscience/BASINS/. Of particular concern, HSPF contains a
relatively large number of model parameters requiring adjustment to properly calibrate the
model. Model calibration is thus an important and potentially time consuming task. HSPF users
can benefit, however, from a wide range of documentation and user support materials developed
over decades of model applications. Specific assistance in setting model parameter values is
available from the HSPF Application Guide (Donigian et al., 1984), and in the form of Technical
Notes available from the EPA BASINS web site. HSPFParm, an interactive database of HSPF
model parameters for over 40 watersheds in 14 states is also available to guide the calibration of
HSPF models in these areas (Donigian et al., 1998).
It should be noted that there are inherent limits to the appropriate range of climatic
changes that can be simulated using a watershed model calibrated with historical data.
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Simulating watershed behavior under changing climatic conditions assumes that the model
calibration is robust to these changes. This is a particular concern when evaluating climate
changes well outside the range of variability experienced during the calibration period.
Calibration concerns are not unique to assessments of climate change. Users should use their
own discretion in interpreting results.
3.3. CLIMATE ASSESSMENT TOOL (CAT) CAPABILITIES
BASINS CAT provides two general capabilities to BASINS users, a flexible scenario
generation capability for creating meteorological time series reflecting any user-determined
change in temperature and precipitation for use as input to the HSPF model, and a
post-processing capability for calculating management targets (endpoints) useful to water and
watershed managers from model output. It is important to note that BASINS CAT does not
provide climate change data for any particular region of the United States. Rather, BASINS
CAT simply provides a capability for users to create meteorological data reflecting any type of
change they wish to consider.
BASINS CAT enables adjustments only to historical precipitation and air temperature
records. The adjusted records are contained within the same BASINS Watershed Data
Management (WDM) file containing the original, historical weather records. In addition,
BASINS CAT provides a view/export capability that (1) displays the changes resulting from a
specific adjustment or (2) saves the adjusted weather record as an ASCII file.
Users can adjust historical weather data using standard arithmetic operators applied
monthly, seasonally, or over any other increment of time. This flexibility allows adjustments to
be made reflecting long-term seasonal climate change, as well as short-term, year-to-year
variability such as changes in the intensity of periodic drought. In addition, adjustments to a
climate variable can also be applied uniformly to all events, or be selectively applied only on
those historical events that exceed (or fall below) a specified threshold. Future climate change is
expected to result in an acceleration or intensification of the hydrologic cycle, whereby a greater
proportion of annual precipitation occurs as heavy events (Groisman et al., 2005; IPCC, 2007).
The ability to selectively adjust only events within user-defined size classes allows climate
change scenarios to be created reflecting these changes. Finally, BASINS CAT also provides a
capability for users to create time series that contain more frequent precipitation events.
The post-processing capability provided by BASINS CAT allows users to directly
calculate hydrologic or water quality endpoint metrics such as 100-year flood, 7Q10 low-flow,
an annual water yield, or an annual pollutant load. Other tools within the BASINS system and
available to BASINS CAT users provide additional capabilities for time series analysis including
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the ability to calculate any x-year, y-duration, high or low-flow event using standard USGS
protocols. This capability facilitates the assessment of climate change impacts on specific
metrics and management targets important to water and watershed managers (Johnson and Kittle,
2006). Users can select as endpoints any HSPF variable or flux output by the model during a
simulation. Users can also tailor an analysis by calculating endpoints based only on a specified
time of the year (e.g., a specified month or season of the year), or for specific years within a
simulation.
BASINS CAT capabilities are seamlessly integrated into the BASINS system through a
series of graphical user interfaces. Application of BASINS CAT requires:
• A pre-existing, calibrated HSPF application
• WDM file containing HSPF input meteorological time series
• Output file(s) to which HSPF results are output (WDM and/or binary)
For an HSPF application developed within BASINS, these elements are created and
saved in the BASINS project associated with the application. For an HSPF application
developed outside of BASINS, input meteorological time series must come from a WDM file
referred to by the HSPF User Control Input (UCI) file. Similarly, output time series must be
stored in either a WDM or HSPF binary output file for use by BASINS CAT. For either of these
cases, BASINS CAT will first refer to the HSPF application's UCI file. The input
meteorological time series and output results referenced by the UCI file will then be loaded into
BASINS for use by BASINS CAT. A tutorial demonstrating the set-up of BASINS CAT is
provided in Chapter 5.
After a BASINS CAT session has been initiated, BASINS CAT creates the necessary
input files and manages all input and output from HSPF. BASINS CAT can also be used to
automate the creation and running of multiple climate change scenarios.
3.3.1. Tools for Developing Climate Change Scenarios
Scenarios can be developed based on any available information about climate change.
The IPCC Task Group on Data and Scenario Support for Impacts and Climate Analysis (TGICA)
describes three different types of scenarios based on different types of information about climate:
synthetic scenarios, analogue scenarios, and scenarios based on outputs from climate models.
Synthetic scenarios describe techniques where particular climatic attributes are changed by a
realistic but arbitrary amount, often according to a qualitative interpretation of climate model
simulations for a region. For example, adjustments of baseline temperatures by 1, 2, 3, and 4°C
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and baseline precipitation by 5, 10, 15 and 20% could represent various magnitudes of future
change (IPCC-TGICA, 2007). Analogue scenarios are constructed by identifying recorded
climate regimes which may resemble the future climate in a given region. These records can be
obtained either from the past (temporal analogues) or from another region at the present (spatial
analogues). Model based scenarios are developed using output from modeling experiments with
Global Climate Model (GCM) and Regional Climate Model (RCM) models that simulate the
response of the global climate system to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. A more
detailed and excellent discussion of climate models and the development of scenarios for
assessing climate change impacts is provided by the IPCC-TGICA (2007).
Scenarios representative of a range of potential changes in future climate can be created
using the BASINS CAT interface by making one or more adjustments to a selected historical
precipitation and/or air temperature record. A range of changes can be applied to historical time
series reflecting different types of climate change (e.g., seasonal temperature changes, annual
precipitation totals, high intensity precipitation events), and specific changes can then be
assembled to create climate change scenarios for assessment. BASINS CAT can be used to
create and run single climate change scenarios. In addition, BASINS CAT can be used to
automate the creation and running of multiple synthetic scenarios within a specified range of
values for selected change variables (IPCC, 2007).
As noted previously, application of BASINS CAT requires a pre-existing, calibrated
HSPF application. Use of any calibrated model to perform analysis of change scenarios assumes
the calibrated model is sufficiently robust to realistically simulate watershed behavior under the
conditions described by the scenarios. In other words, it must be assumed that change scenarios
do not impact basic watershed behavior in such a way that the model parameterization achieved
through calibration is no longer valid. This issue is common to any modeling analysis, but is of
particular concern when assessing climate change impacts. In many cases, users will want to
assess changes in temperature and precipitation falling outside of the range of historical
observations used to calibrate the model. It is intuitive that at some point, extremely different
climate conditions will strain the validity of calibration. It is not clear, however, where this point
is or what the implications are for results. BASINS CAT imposes no constraints on the type and
magnitude of changes made. BASINS CAT users should thus be careful to consider the validity
of model simulations, particularly when assessing change scenarios falling well outside the range
of observed climatic variability.
The following definitions apply throughout this chapter and report. Definitions of the
terms "projection," "prediction," and "scenario" are from the Intergovernmental Panel on
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Climate Change (IPCC, 2007). The terms "scenario component" and "record adjustment" are
defined with specific reference to this report and the BASINS CAT tool.
Projection. A projection is a potential future evolution of a quantity or set of quantities, often
computed with the aid of a model. Projections are distinguished from predictions in order to
emphasize that projections involve assumptions concerning, for example future socioeconomic
and technological developments that may or may not be realized, and therefore, are subject to
substantial uncertainty (IPCC, 2007).
Prediction. A climate prediction (or forecast) is the result of an attempt to produce an estimate
of the actual evolution of the climate in the future, for example, at seasonal, interannual, or
long-term time scales. Since the future evolution of the climate system can be highly sensitive to
initial conditions, such predictions are usually probabilistic in nature (IPCC, 2007).
Scenario. A scenario is a plausible and often simplified description of how the future may
develop, based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about driving forces
and key relationships. Scenarios may be derived from projections but are often based on
additional information from other sources, sometimes combined with a narrative storyline
(IPCC, 2007)
Scenario component. In the context of BASINS CAT, climate change scenarios are composed
of one or more specific types of change or scenario components. For example, a single climate
change scenario could be defined to include increased precipitation during winter months,
decreased precipitation during summer months, and a uniform annual increase in air
temperatures. In this example, the scenario is composed of three scenario components. BASINS
CAT allows users to create complex climate change scenarios by specifying multiple scenario
components (as arithmetic adjustments to baseline temperature and/or precipitation records), and
assembling scenarios from one or more scenario components as desired.
Record adjustment. The term "record adjustment" refers to a specific arithmetic or other
operation carried out on a temperature or precipitation record (time series) to reflect a specific
scenario component. For example, a scenario component calling for 20% increase in winter
precipitation can be represented by adjusting (here multiplying) each winter precipitation value
in the baseline precipitation record by 1.2.
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Full record. Applying an adjustment to the full record affects all years within the historical time
period being adjusted to create a climate change scenario.
Partial record. Applying an adjustment to a partial record affects only a selected set of years
within the historical time period being adjusted to create a climate change scenario.
Climate change scenarios are created with BASINS CAT by selecting and modifying
historical temperature and precipitation time series data from one or more locations (e.g., NCDC
weather station(s) used as meteorological input to a watershed model) to reflect any change or
changes of interest to a user. After selecting the historical data to be modified, BASINS CAT
facilitates the application of one or more modifications or adjustments to each selected time
series.
Most HSPF models are set up to receive meteorological input from multiple locations
within a watershed. BASINS CAT can be used to make adjustments to any meteorological time
series occurring within an HSPF model. The same adjustment(s) can be applied to multiple
meteorological data sets simultaneously, e.g., temperature time series data from multiple weather
stations (see Tutorial 5.1.1.1). Different adjustments can also be applied to specific data sets,
e.g., temperature data from different locations within a watershed are modified independently to
reflect spatially variable change scenarios (see Tutorial 5.1.4).
The following sections describe options within BASINS CAT for adjusting historical
precipitation and air temperature time series to create climate change scenarios. A discussion of
how to combine multiple adjustments or scenario components to a single time series data set is
also provided. The tutorials in Chapter 5 provide specific instructions about how to implement
the adjustments described here using the BASINS CAT interface.
3.3.1.1. Modify Historical Precipitation Records
BASINS CAT allows record adjustments to be made to a historical precipitation record
by one or more of the five methods listed below. It should be noted the adjustments listed here
are only for precipitation amount (depth per time increment). HSPF uses air temperature to
determine whether precipitation occurs as rain or snow. The influence of climate change on
precipitation form is thus determined by changes in air temperature.
1. Apply multiplier to full record. All values in a precipitation record (daily or hourly
precipitation totals) are multiplied by a specified constant.
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2. Apply seasonal multiplier. Precipitation values within a selected period (month or
season) of every year are multiplied by a specified constant.
3. Modify partial record. Precipitation values within a selected range of years are multiplied
by a specified constant.
4. Represent storm intensification. Apply a constant multiplier to all events within a
specified event size class.
5. Add or remove storm events. Events are randomly added or removed to represent
changes in precipitation event frequency.
Each of these five options for adjusting precipitation records is described below. Any
one or more of these five record adjustment types can be combined to create climate change
scenarios.
3.3.1.1.1. Apply multiplier to full record. All values in a precipitation record (e.g., a daily or
hourly precipitation totals) are multiplied by a specified constant. The assumption is that
precipitation will change in a uniform way throughout each year of the full record, either
increasing or decreasing by a uniform percent.
Example of a relevant analysis: Evaluate the impact of a uniform 20% increase in
precipitation on watershed endpoints.
Applying a constant multiplier to historical values in each year of the full record is the
simplest (and coarsest) method of modifying precipitation. This method can be used in a
stand-alone manner or as one component of a more complex scenario including additional
adjustments. As a stand-alone adjustment, application of a constant multiplier might be
performed when more detailed information about the seasonality, year-to-year variability, or
changes in storm frequency or intensity is not available. As part of a more complex scenario,
other types of change can be superimposed on a uniform change. For example, one might create
a precipitation change scenario by first applying a uniform increase to the entire period of record,
and then applying an additional, second adjustment only for the largest storm events.
3.3.1.1.2. Apply seasonal multiplier. Values within a user-specified month or season of each
year of the full record are multiplied by a specified constant. The assumption is that
precipitation will change in the specified way only during certain times of year for each year in
the full record.
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Example of a relevant analysis: Evaluate the impact on watershed endpoints of a uniform
20% seasonal increase in precipitation during the months of June, July, and August for each year
of the record.
Climate change is expected to vary seasonally throughout the year in most regions of the
United States. For example, greater increases in precipitation are anticipated during winter
months in the northeast United States than at other times of the year. A seasonal adjustment to a
historical record is achieved by specifying and applying a multiplier to only records within a
specific, user defined yearly time interval or season. To define a season, BASINS CAT enables
the selection of one month or any combination of months.
3.3.1.1.3. Modify partial record. Only values within a user-specified range of years contained
within the full record are multiplied by a specified constant. The assumption is that precipitation
will change only during certain years within the full record, e.g., adjustment is made to a
user-specified period of 10 years within a 30-year historical record.
Example of a relevant analysis: Evaluate the effect of climate change-induced drought
by decreasing by 20% all precipitation values occurring within the driest water year or years
contained within the record.
Climate change is expected to result in an increased severity of drought in many parts of
the United States. This type of change can be represented in a climate change scenario by
adjusting historical precipitation values during specified, consecutive periods of time. For
example, investigating the impacts of increasing drought can include decreasing the precipitation
total for an already low-rainfall year. BASINS CAT can be used to apply a constant multiplier to
precipitation data during only a specified portion of the historical record. The user can define the
period that will be adjusted in terms of either calendar years or water years (i.e., October to
September).
3.3.1.1.4. Represent storm intensification. Values within a user-specified event size class,
where size is defined according to precipitation depth, are multiplied by a specified constant,
e.g., change only those values that exceed or fall below a specified event ranking such as the
largest 10% of events. The assumption is that future climate change will result in an
intensification of the hydrologic cycle, with a larger proportion of annual precipitation occurring
in heavy precipitation events (IPCC, 2007; Groisman et al., 2005).
Example of relevant questions/analyses: (a) Evaluate the impact on watershed endpoints
of a 10%) increase of annual precipitation occurring only within the largest 20% (defined by total
storm volume) of the storms present in the historical precipitation record; (b) Evaluate the impact
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on watershed endpoints of a 10% decrease in precipitation occurring only in events within the
historical record that are among the lowest 90% defined by total storm volume.
BASINS CAT can be used to apply a constant multiplier only to specific rainfall events
that exceed or fall below a user-specified storm volume ranking (e.g., largest 10% or smallest
50%)). This capability allows changes to be applied only on selected events within user-defined
size classes. Implementing this type of adjustment to a historical precipitation record requires
specification of a change in precipitation volume resulting from the intensification adjustment
and specification of the particular storm events within which this volume is distributed. More
specifically, it requires the following steps:
1. Specify a percent change in water volume over the desired period of record (e.g., the
entire period of record, a specific season within each year).
2. Specify which storm events are to be adjusted using the following criteria (note the
criteria listed below include options for defining what qualifies as an event, as well as
specifying an event intensity threshold):
a. an event intensity threshold,
b. the maximum allowable length of time (hours) that the intensity threshold is not
achieved before one event concludes and another begins,
c. the minimum volume of a storm event to be considered a candidate for adjustment,
and/or
d. the minimum duration of a storm event to be considered a candidate for adjustment.
3. Further reduce the collection of storms that will be adjusted (as per #1 above) by
specifying the percentage of the total volume of the rainfall record that is to reside in the
storms that are included in the adjustment.
Given this information, BASINS CAT computes the total volume of rainfall to be
added/removed from the selected storms. This information is then used to calculate and apply a
constant multiplier to each selected rainfall event, thus distributing the desired volume among
selected events as a constant percent change.
It should be noted that the Synoptic Analysis Tool available within BASINS can be used
to characterize precipitation events. This information may be useful to BASINS CAT users to
help define appropriate event size classes and other relevant information before specifying
adjustments. The Synoptic Analysis Tool can be applied directly, in a stand-alone manner, to
any weather record, and provides a capability to sort or group storm events based on volume
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(max, sum, mean, cumulative), event duration (max, sum, mean, standard deviation), event
intensity (max, mean, standard deviation), and the elapsed time since the last event (max, mean,
variance).
3.3.1.1.5. Add or remove storm events. Precipitation events are randomly added or removed
from a historical precipitation record to represent changes in the frequency of events. The
assumption is that changes in annual precipitation totals occur due to changes in the frequency of
precipitation events.
Example of a relevant analysis: Evaluate the impact on watershed endpoints of
increasing precipitation volume by 10% by adding randomly timed rainfall events with an
average intensity greater than 0.1 inches per hour.
BASINS CAT enables users to represent changes in the frequency of precipitation events
by randomly selecting and duplicating with a historical time series an existing event (adding) or
randomly selecting and removing an existing event from a historical record. Implementing this
type of adjustment to a historical precipitation record requires the following steps:
1. Specify a percent change in water volume over the desired period of record (e.g., the
entire period of record, a specific season within each year).
2. Specify which storm events will be either duplicated (to increase total precipitation
volume) or eliminated (to decrease total precipitation volume); storm events can be
defined in terms of any or all of the following attributes:
a. an event intensity threshold,
b. the maximum allowable length of time (hours) that the intensity threshold is not
achieved before one event concludes and another begins,
c. the minimum volume of a storm event to be considered a candidate for adjustment,
and/or
d. the minimum duration of a storm event to be considered a candidate for adjustment.
3. Given this information, BASINS CAT randomly selects precipitation events for removal
or duplication elsewhere in the record until the specified change in precipitation volume
is reached.
When duplicating storm events, the position in the time series (i.e., the day(s) on which a
new event is added) is determined randomly. Accordingly, it is possible for new events to
overlap existing events. In such cases the new precipitation is simply added to existing
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precipitation for that time interval. BASINS CAT maintains an internal record to avoid
duplicating the same storm twice, unless all qualifying storms have been duplicated before
meeting the specified volume increase.
3.3.1.2. Modify Historical Air Temperature Records and Regenerate Evapotranspiration
Record
The 2007 Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) states that "warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from
observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of
snow and ice and rising global average sea level" (IPCC, 2007).
BASINS CAT can be used to adjust a historical air temperature record by one or more of
the three methods below:
1. Add or subtract a constant to full record and regenerate evapotranspiration. All values in
a temperature record (daily or hourly air temperature) are increased or decreased by a
specified constant.
2. Add or subtract a constant to a specified season and regenerate evapotranspiration.
Values occurring within a specified season in the full record are increased or decreased
by a specified constant.
3. Add or subtract a constant to a partial record and regenerate evapotranspiration. Values
occurring within a specified time period (years) within the full record are increased or
decreased by a specified constant.
Each of these three options for adjusting temperature records is described below. As for
precipitation, any one or more of these types of adjustments can be combined to create more
complex climate change scenarios.
It is extremely important to note that whenever an adjustment is made to a
historical air temperature, the potential evapotranspiration (PET) record used by HSPF
must be regenerated to reflect these changes. HSPF uses the Hamon (1961) method for
estimating the potential evapotranspiration based on air temperature. It is very simple to
regenerate PET values to reflect modified air temperatures when running a simulation through
the BASINS CAT interface. However, regeneration of PET is not an automatic function in
BASINS CAT. Users must instruct BASINS CAT to perform the regeneration of PET. HSPF
also uses air temperature to determine the form of precipitation and dynamics of snowmelt,
which has a major influence on hydrology.
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3.3.1.2.1. Add or subtract a constant to full record and regenerate evapotranspiration. A
constant change in air temperature is added or subtracted from each value in the full record. The
assumption is that changes in air temperature will be constant throughout the year, either
increasing or decreasing by a specified amount, expressed in degrees.
Example of a relevant analysis: Evaluate the impact of a uniform 2°C increase in air
temperature on watershed endpoints; account for effects of temperature change on potential
evapotranspiration.
Adding or subtracting a constant value from historical values in each year of the full
record is the simplest (and coarsest) method of modifying air temperature. This adjustment can
be performed in a stand-alone manner, or as one component of a more complex scenario
including additional adjustments. As a stand-alone adjustment, application of a uniform
increment or decrement might be performed when more detailed information about seasonal or
year-to-year variability of air temperature is not available. As part of a more complex scenario,
other types of change can be superimposed on a uniform change. For example, one might create
an air temperature change scenario by first applying a uniform increase to the entire period of
record, and then applying an additional, second adjustment only during the winter months of
each year of the record.
After making a seasonal adjustment to an air temperature record, users must instruct
BASINS CAT to regenerate potential evapotranspiration.
3.3.1.2.2. Add or subtract a constant to a specified season and regenerate evapotranspiration.
A constant change in air temperature is added or subtracted from values within a user-specified
season each year of the full record. The assumption is that air temperature changes will vary
seasonally within each year of the full record, with the specified change occurring during a
certain month or season and not during other times of the year.
Example of a relevant analysis: Evaluate the impact on watershed endpoints of a uniform
2°C increase in air temperature during the cool months (November through April) and a uniform
4°C increase during the warm months (May through October); account for effects of temperature
change on potential evapotranspiration.
BASINS CAT enables the modification of temperature (and computed potential
evapotranspiration) values only during a specified portion of the year. Future climate change is
likely to be variable seasonally throughout the year. A seasonal adjustment to a historical record
is made by specifying and adding or subtracting a constant value to all air temperature values
that occur within a user-defined season throughout the record. To define a season, BASINS
CAT enables the selection of one month or any combination of months.
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After making a seasonal adjustment to an air temperature record, users must instruct
BASINS CAT to regenerate potential evapotranspiration.
3.3.1.2.3. Add or subtract a constant to a partial record and regenerate evapotranspiration. A
constant change in air temperature is added or subtracted only from values within a
user-specified time period (years) within the full record. The assumption is that air temperature
changes will vary from year to year within the full record, with the specified change occurring
during a certain year or years and not during others.
Example of a relevant analysis: Evaluate the effect that a uniform increase of 3°C has on
drought conditions occurring within the driest water year contained within the simulation period;
account for effects of temperature change on potential evapotranspiration.
Investigating the impacts of increasing drought severity can, for example, require
increasing the air temperature values and re-computing PET values for a single, specified year
within a historical record. Using BASINS CAT, a uniform increment or decrement can be
applied to air temperature values during a specified portion of the historical air temperature
record. The user can define the period that will be adjusted in terms of either calendar years or
water years (i.e., October to September).
After making a seasonal adjustment to an air temperature record, users must instruct
BASINS CAT to regenerate potential evapotranspiration.
3.3.1.3. Combine Multiple A djustments to Create a Climate Change Scenario
Climate change scenarios are created with BASINS CAT by combining one or more
temperature and precipitation adjustment to create a composite change scenario. Users first
specify the individual temperature and precipitation adjustments of concern. BASINS CAT then
allows users to create climate change scenarios comprised of one or more of these individual
adjustments. This approach provides great flexibility for creating and running with HSPF
climate change scenarios of varying detail and complexity.
Example of a relevant analysis: Evaluate the impact on watershed endpoints that results
from combining the following adjustments to the historical records:
1. 20% increase in summer (June through August) precipitation,
2. 2-degree Celsius increase in air temperature during the cool season (November through
April), and
3. 4-degree Celsius increase in air temperature during the warm season (May through
October).
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After specifying individual temperature and precipitation adjustments, the BASINS CAT
interface lists each adjustment made by a user. Each adjustment is preceded by a checkbox. The
checkbox allows users to select those adjustments to be used as components of a particular
climate change scenario (or set of synthetic scenarios). By selecting and unselecting
checkboxes, users can create and run complex precipitation and air temperature change scenarios
consisting of multiple adjustments.
3.3.1.4. Creating Spatially Variable Climate Change Scenarios at Multiple Locations
Previous sections in this chapter discuss the capabilities of BASINS CAT for adjusting
historical time series data to create climate change scenarios. Most HSPF models receive
meteorological input from multiple locations, typically NCDC weather stations, within a
watershed. Running an assessment using BASINS CAT thus requires that change scenarios be
created for meteorological data for multiple locations within a watershed. BASINS CAT
provides the option to apply specified adjustment(s) to multiple meteorological data sets
simultaneously, e.g., temperature time series data from multiple weather stations (see Tutorial
5.1.1.1). This simple approach is justified in many cases due to limited knowledge of future
climate change at fine spatial scales. In certain cases, however, users may wish to create
scenarios reflecting spatially variable climate change at different watershed locations. This is a
particular concern in large or topographically complex watersheds. BASINS CAT can be used
to create spatially variable climate change scenarios for different locations within a watershed by
individually selecting and adjusting historical temperature and precipitation time series data sets
from each location (see Tutorial 5.1.4).
Example of a relevant analysis: An HSPF model is set up to receive input from two
NCDC weather stations. Create climate change scenarios representing a 10% annual increase in
precipitation at one weather station, and a 15% annual increase at the second weather station.
To individually adjust time series data from multiple locations (NCDC weather stations),
each data set must be selected and adjusted as a separate step. After specifying adjustments to
each data set, the BASINS CAT interface will list each adjustment preceded by a checkbox. By
selecting and unselecting the appropriate checkboxes, users can create and run spatially variable
precipitation and air temperature change scenarios for each weather station used in an HSPF
simulation.
3.3.1.5. Create Synthetic Climate Change Scenarios
Synthetic scenarios describe techniques where particular climatic attributes are changed
by a realistic but arbitrary amount, often according to a qualitative interpretation of climate
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model simulations, historical variability, or other available information for a region
(IPCC-TGICA, 2007). Application of this approach involves selecting the range of values and
step interval for one or more climate variable(s), and then creating and running scenarios based
on each possible combination of arbitrarily assigned changes.
Example of a relevant analysis: Assess the sensitivity of watershed endpoints by creating
and running multiple scenarios in which precipitation and temperature are adjusted in increments
over a range and every possible pair of changes is simulated, e.g., changes in historical air
temperature of 1, 2, and 3 degrees C, and changes in historical precipitation of 10, 20, and 30%;
account for the effects of temperature change on potential evapotranspiration.
BASINS CAT provides an explicit capability for conducting analyses using synthetic
scenarios. Users must specify at least one climate variable of interest, and for each variable,
specify the total range of change and step interval of values to be used within this range (e.g.,
evaluate changes in annual precipitation ranging from 10 to 50%, at a step interval of 10%).
BASINS CAT then automates the iterative creation of multiple scenarios, manages the input to
HSPF, and manages model output including the creation of tabular summaries. Any adjustment
that can be made using the single-run adjustment capabilities of BASINS CAT can also be
performed within a series of synthetic runs.
As stated previously, it is important to note that when synthetic scenarios include
adjustments to air temperatures, users must instruct BASINS CAT to regenerate potential
evapotranspiration.
3.3.1.6. Exporting BASINS CA T Climate Change Scenarios as Text (ASCII) Files
BASINS CAT seamlessly links capabilities for modifying historical weather data to
create climate change scenarios with the HSPF watershed model. It is possible, however, that
some users may wish to create climate change scenarios using BASINS CAT for use with
models other than HSPF and/or outside of the BASINS system. To provide this functionality,
BASINS CAT offers two options for exporting climate change scenarios as ASCII text files:
1. In cases where a single adjustment is made to a precipitation or an air temperature record,
the resulting record can be exported as an ASCII file independent of running the HSPF
model.
2. In cases where multiple adjustments are made to a precipitation or an air temperature
record, it is necessary to complete an HSPF model run for one or more hydrologic or
water quality endpoints. After this has been accomplished, BASINS CAT enables the
export of either or both of the precipitation and air temperature records that resulted from
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the multiple adjustments performed in defining the climate change scenario; again the
export is performed in the form of ASCII files.
3.3.2. Tools for Assessing Hydrologic and Water Quality Endpoints
EPA's Guidelines for Ecological Risk Assessment define an assessment endpoint as an
explicit expression of an environmental value that is to be protected (U.S. EPA, 1998). More
generally, any ecological attribute of relevance or concern to those conducting an assessment can
be considered an endpoint.
Standard HSPF output files from a simulation using BASINS CAT can be saved for later
analysis. BASINS CAT also provides, however, a post-processing capability for calculating
different hydrologic and water quality endpoints based on model output time series data. This
capability is intended to support assessments of climate change impacts on specific metrics or
management targets used by managers.
This section describes the capabilities of BASINS CAT for calculating assessment
endpoints. The tutorials in Chapter 5 provide specific instructions about how to specify
hydrologic and water quality endpoints using the BASINS CAT interface.
3.3.2.1. Endpoint Options
BASINS CAT users can specify one or more hydrologic or water quality endpoints to be
calculated by selecting appropriate HSPF output time series data, and specifying the attributes of
that time series to be calculated (e.g., mean, min, max, 100-yr flood, 7Q10). The options for
calculating endpoints are determined by the output from an HSPF simulation, or more
specifically, the time series specified as output in the HSPF User Control Input file (UCI file).
Endpoint options can be as simple as a few outputs to .WDM data sets in the External Targets
block, or can be greatly expanded by using the binary output file.
After selecting an HSPF output time series for calculating an endpoint, the different
attributes of the time series that can be calculated are listed in a drop down menu:
• Min
• Max
• Sum
• Average annual sum of values
• Mean
• Geometric Mean
• Variance
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• Standard Deviation
• Standard Error of Skew
• Serial Correlation Coefficient
• Coefficient of Variation
• 7Q10 1 ow-flow event
• 100-year flood event (based on log Pearson III method)
3.3.2.2. Specify Value Ranges of Concern
In certain cases, the value of an endpoint relative to some critical range or threshold value
is of interest. Examples include a low flow threshold at which a fish species is subject to harm or
numeric state water quality standards for chemical endpoints. BASINS CAT provides an option
to visually flag endpoint values in the Results table using one of two different schemes; a
3-tiered, low/favorable/high range color scheme, or a 2-tiered favorable versus unfavorable range
color scheme. When viewing results in the Results table, blue coloring is used to denote cells
falling below the favorable range, no shading denotes cells falling within the favorable range,
and red denotes cells greater than the favorable range. The threshold values and ranges used to
determine the rating are set by the user.
3.3.2.3. Specify Time Periods of Concern (Seasonal and/or Partial Records)
In certain cases, the value of an endpoint during only a particular season of each year, or
during a specific year (or water year) within the record, is of interest. BASINS CAT provides an
option to visually flag endpoint values in the Results table occurring within a specified period of
concern. The time period of concern is set by the user.
3.3.3. Running an HSPF Simulation Using BASINS CAT
Watershed simulations using HSPF can be managed from within the BASINS CAT
interface after creating and selecting the climate change scenarios to be considered, and
specifying the endpoints to be calculated. The tutorials in Chapter 5 provide specific examples
of how to run a simulation using the BASINS CAT interface.
3.3.4. Tools for Summarizing and Visualizing Results
After running an assessment, BASINS CAT users can choose to either export simulation
results for analysis or visualization using external software (e.g., MS Excel), or use existing tools
within the BASINS system to create expanded summaries and visualization. This section
describes additional tools within BASINS for displaying and analyzing the results of HSPF
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simulations that may be useful to BASINS CAT users. All HSPF simulation results generated
using BASINS CAT can also be exported as ASCII text files for use with other analysis and
visualization software.
The information provided in this section is limited to describing approaches and
capabilities for summarizing and visualizing results. Chapter 5 provides a set of tutorials that
provide specific examples of how to display results.
3.3.4.1. Results Tables
Results tables are the most straightforward method for reporting the results of HSPF
simulations conducted with BASINS CAT, including calculated endpoint values. The Results
table contains values for each endpoint selected by the user (i.e., for each attribute [e.g., mean,
min] of each HSPF output variable [e.g., streamflow, sediment load] selected as an endpoint).
3.3.4.2. Pivot Tables
In addition to the Results table, BASINS CAT also provides a capability for visualizing
and analyzing results of HSPF simulations using a pivot table. A pivot table is a powerful data
visualization and analysis tool available in several commercial spreadsheet software programs
(e.g., Microsoft Excel, OpenOffice.org). A pivot table can be used to quickly and easily assess
relationships among multiple variables. The user sets up and changes the appearance of a pivot
table by selecting a variable of concern and variables to use as x and y axes of the pivot table.
Values of the variable of concern at each x and y coordinate location are then shown as a
function of the coordinates. A pivot table is similar in concept to a contour plot (x and y axes are
the same) but expresses its information in the form of tabular numbers rather than graphical
contour lines.
3.3.4.3. A dditional BASINS Tools for Summarizing and Visualizing Results
In addition to the capabilities built directly into BASINS CAT, it is possible to apply
other powerful tools available within the BASINS system to summarize and visualize results.
HSPF output time series data from a BASINS CAT application can be displayed and analyzed
using any of the following BASINS capabilities:
• Graph a time series or multiple time series.
• Display attributes and calculated statistics in the form of a data tree (a method of
displaying attributes and data in logical groups that can be collapsed or expanded
with the "+" and boxes built into the tree).
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• Compute frequency statistics such for specified n-day values and recurrence intervals.
• Calculate and display statistics for user-defined seasons or time periods.
• Generate one time series from one or multiple other time series such as performing
unit conversions or mathematical operations (e.g., adding a number of time series).
Specific examples of how to take advantage of these capabilities using other tools within
BASINS are provided in Chapter 5.
3.3.5. Using Scripts to Automate BASINS CAT Applications
Scripts provide an efficient and reproducible method for performing repetitive tasks.
Scripts can be used to perform all facets of a BASINS CAT application. Both BASINS and
MapWindow, the GIS framework upon which BASINS is built, are open-source software
products. Both programs and their source code can be downloaded free of charge and run-time
licenses are not required. The software architecture of the programs has also been designed to
readily allow end users to extend the programs through the use of scripts. MapWindow and
BASINS have both been developed in the .Net framework. Any script developed in the .Net
language can be run from BASINS.
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4. OVERVIEW OF BASINS CAT
BASINS CAT integrates tools into the BASINS system allowing users to create climate
change scenarios by modifying historical weather data and to use these data as the
meteorological inputs to the HSPF watershed model. A capability is also provided to calculate
specific hydrologic and water quality endpoints important to watershed management based on
HSPF model output (e.g., the 100-year flood or 7Q10 low-flow event). Finally, BASINS CAT
can be used to assess the outcomes of a single climate change scenario, or to automate multiple
HSPF runs to determine the sensitivity or general pattern of watershed response to different types
and amounts of climate change.
Users can modify historical climate data using standard arithmetic operators applied
monthly, seasonally, or over any other increment of time. Increases or decreases in a climate
variable (precipitation, air temperature) can be applied uniformly, or they can be selectively
applied to only those historical events that exceed (or fall below) a specified magnitude. This
capability allows changes to be applied only to events within user-defined size classes, and can
be used to represent the projected effects of intensification of the hydrologic cycle, whereby a
greater proportion of rainfall occurs as heavy precipitation events. In addition, users are able to
create time series that contain more frequent precipitation events. These capabilities provide
users with an ability to represent and assess the impacts of a wide range of potential future
climatic conditions and events.
BASINS CAT does not provide climate change scenario data. Rather, the tool provides a
capability for quickly creating and running climate change scenarios within the BASINS system.
Diverse sources of information such as records of historical and paleo-extreme events, observed
trends, and projections based on global or regional scale climate models can be used to guide
scenario development. Data requirements will vary depending on assessment goals. BASINS
CAT provides capabilities to support a range of assessment goals, e.g., simple screening analysis,
systematic sensitivity analysis, or implementing more detailed scenarios based on climate model
projections. A variety of other resources are available to provide users with general help and
information concerning climate change, scenario development, and climate change impact
assessment (See Chapter 7, Supporting Resources).
4.1. COMPONENTS OF BASINS CAT INTERFACE
This section provides an overview of the key components of the BASINS CAT interface.
It is presented in the format of a tour, and is intended only as a descriptive introduction to the
interface. Detailed tutorials describing how to conduct specific tasks using the BASINS CAT
interface are presented in Chapter 5. Running BASINS CAT requires that BASINS version 4 be
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downloaded and installed to a user's local computer. BASINS 4 can be downloaded from the
EPA's BASINS web page (http://www.epa.gov/waterscience/BASINS/). Instructions for
installation are provided with the download.
From the BASINS main form, activate BASINS CAT by selecting Climate Assessment
Tool from the Plug-ins:Analysis menu.
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Reclassify Land Use
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Once activated, the BASINS CAT main form is opened by first clicking Analysis on the
BASINS menu bar, then Climate Assessment Tool on the submenu (or typing ALT-AC).
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1
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The main BASINS CAT form opens. It contains a menu bar, four tabs, and the Start
button.
Climate Assessment Tool
File Edit Options Help
~mate Data j .Assessment Endpoints j Results Table | Pivot Table |
Base Scenario |
^lnj_xj
New Scenario [Modified
Add |
Remove |
Edit
View |
Prepared
Start
Menu Options
On the Climate Assessment Tool menu, the File menu option includes choices to Open
an HSPF UCI file, Load or Save Climate and Endpoints, Load or Save Results, or to Save
Pivot Table.
The Edit menu option includes choices to Copy Results (to copy the results table) or
Copy Pivot (to copy the pivot table). Both options allow information to be pasted into another
document such as MS Word or Excel. Finally, the Paste Results option allows the user to paste
old results (from another document) into BASINS CAT to view them in the table format, if
desired.
Under the Options menu, the user can choose whether to copy data only or copy data and
table headings.
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Tabs
The Climate Data tab allows the user to create climate change scenarios by selecting
existing weather time series to be modified and implementing one or more changes or
adjustments. The Assessment Endpoints tab allows the user to specify the hydrologic and water
quality endpoints to be calculated from model output time series data. The Results Table and
Pivot Table tabs are for viewing model output including hydrologic and water quality endpoints
computed by the model.
Start Button
At least one climate scenario and one assessment endpoint are necessary to run the
Climate Assessment Tool. After selecting all climate data and desired endpoints, press the
Start button at the bottom of the main BASINS CAT form.
Total Iterations Selected
Once the desired record adjustments have been specified, the Total Iterations Selected
shown at the bottom of the form indicates the number of HSPF runs to complete the task. This
number can range from 1, when running a single scenario, to greater than 1, when automating
multiple runs using synthetic climate change scenarios to determine sensitivity to a range of
different record adjustments.
The Climate Assessment Tool makes a separate HSPF run for each distinct combination
of input data specified by the user. After the model runs, the calculated endpoint values for each
run are displayed so that the user can analyze the impacts of varying input data. Optionally, the
user can save the model output to an external file for further analysis.
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4.1.1. Climate Data
^ Climate Assessment Tool
File Edit Options Help
Climate Data j .Assessment Endpoints | Results Table | Pivot Table |
Ease Scenario hclick to select>
Jd_xJ
New Scenario [Modified
Add
Remove
Edit
View |
Prepared
Start
The Climate Data tab is the main form for managing changes to input time series data
(i.e., weather data). Users can create climate change scenarios by selecting an existing input
time series to be modified and implementing one or more changes (record adjustments) to create
a new scenario(s).
The Base Scenario field contains the HSPF model User Control Input (UCI) file. When
the model is run, a modified UCI file is created, using the name in the New Scenario field as the
base portion of the file name.
Add Button
Clicking the Add button will display the Modify Existing Data form. This form
contains the controls needed to define a record adjustment, including an identification label, the
data set(s) to be modified, and how the data are to be modified. The screen shown below
exhibits all features of the form.
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Modify Existing Data
~UX]
Modification Name: |Stornn Frequency
Existing Data to Modify: (OBSERVED UPMARLBR HPRECIP tt 105 View
Compute PET: |< click to specify PET to replace;-
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Value flO %
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Vary precipitation only in the following Events
Allow gaps up to
Total volume above
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hours
[— Seasons
Vary only in selected Months
T
Jan Jun Nov
Feb Jul Dec
HAug
HSep
EHMOct
All
None
Ok
Cancel
The Modification Name field is used to provide a text label for identifying the scenario
being created. The Existing Data to Modify field is used to select the historical data to which
the adjustment will be made. When modifying temperature data, the Compute PET field is used
to select the potential evapotranspiration data set that will be re-computed using the new,
modified temperature data as input to Hamon's PET estimation method. The How to Modify
field is a pull-down list of options for how the data are to be adjusted. The options include:
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• Changing the temperature
• Multiplying existing values by a number
• Adding/Removing storm events
• Adding/Removing volume in extreme events
Depending on the option selected, the frame below the How to Modify field is updated to
input the quantity of the change (e.g., +/- air temperature degrees, % change in precipitation
depth). In this frame, there are two modification options: Single Change or Iterate Changes.
The term "iterate," as used here, refers to the automation of multiple runs in an iterative way.
The Single Change option will result in one adjustment applied to the data set being modified.
The Iterate Changes option will result in a range of adjustments to the data set and is used to
create synthetic climate change scenarios. To create and run synthetic scenarios, users specify
the desired type of change, the range of values to be considered, and the step interval between
successive trials. For example, a user can specify an increase in average annual temperature
from 0 to 3 degrees at a step interval of 1 degree (units dependent on original data set). BASINS
CAT would then automate the creation and processing of four input time series (i.e., reflecting
average annual temperature increases of 0, 1, 2, and 3 degrees) for input as distinct model runs.
When 2 or more sets of synthetic scenarios are specified, BASINS CAT will systematically
create scenarios and assess each possible combination of specified values. For example, if the
above temperature change were specified together with changes in annual precipitation from 0 to
30% with a step interval of 10% (i.e., changes of 0, 10, 20, and 30%), BASINS CAT would
automate the creation and processing of 4 x 4 = 16 climate change scenarios reflecting each
possible combination of values.
The Events frame is used to define what precipitation events are considered to be storms
when either Adding/Removing storm events or Adding/Removing volume in extreme events.
When the Vary precipitation only in the following Events checkbox is selected, a set of four
elements are made visible for defining storms. The Hourly intensity above field specifies the
minimum hourly precipitation value (or series of values) that is considered to be an event. The
Allow gaps up to field defines the number of hours allowed between two sets of storm events to
consider them all one event. The Total volume above field specifies the minimum amount of
total volume in an overall event for the event to be considered a storm. The Total duration
above field defines the minimum number of hours of consecutive storm values for the values to
be considered a storm. When Adding/Removing volume in extreme events, an additional field,
Change ... % of events, is provided in the frame to specify the percentage of events to change.
Leaving this field blank will result in the specified volume change being applied to all qualifying
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events. Entering a percentage value will result in the volume change being applied to the highest
storms that total that percentage of the data set's volume.
The Seasons frame near the bottom of the form is used for specifying a time subset of the
data set to which the modification will be applied. To specify a season, click on the Vary only
in selected check box and two additional fields will be displayed. The first field is a list of time
subset options that includes Calendar Years, Months, and Water Years. The second field will
display a list of available time intervals based on the item selected in the first field. For example,
selecting Water Years from the first field will populate the second field with a list of available
water years based on the period of record of the data set. Items in the second field can be
selected and unselected by clicking on them. Additionally, the buttons below the list can be used
to select All or None of the items.
As new record adjustments are created, they are added to the text box on the Climate
Data tab. Each new scenario can be composed of multiple record adjustments to an input time
series. By combining multiple adjustments, a wide range of climate change scenarios of varying
complexity can be created. After adding an adjustment, it will appear as a line item in the text
box below. Checking the box will apply the change to the input series when running BASINS
CAT. Unchecking the box will cause the change to be ignored when running BASINS CAT.
When multiple changes are applied to an input data set, the changes are implemented in the order
they are listed in the text box. This order can be modified through use of the up and down
arrows above the list. As individual record adjustments are checked and unchecked, the total
number of climate change scenarios is computed. This number is displayed as the Total
iterations selected at the bottom of the form next to the Start button.
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Climate Assessment Tool
File Edit Options Help
Climate Data j Assessment Endpoints | Results Table | Pivot Table |
Base Scenario |C:\BASINS\Data\Climate\base.uci
New Scenario [Modified
nann
Add
Remove
Edit
View
Prepared
\Z Increase Precip Multiply 1.2
~ Seasonal Precip Multiply 1.2 Month: Jun Jul Aug
~ Partial Precip Multiply 0.8 Water Year: 1986
C Storm Intensity Intensify 10
Q Storm Frequency AddEvents 10 Month: Mar Apr May
\Z Temperature Add 2
\Z Temp Cool Season Add 2 Month: Jan Feb Mar Apr Nov Dec
\Z Temp Warm Season Add 4 Month: May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
~ Partial T emp Add 3 Water Year: 1986
0 Synthetic T emp Add from 0 to 3 step 1
sl
Synthetic Precip Multiply from 1 to 1.3 step 0.1
S tart T otal iterations selected = 16 (2:21)
Remove Button
The Remove button is used to delete an item from the list of record adjustments. The
item to be deleted must first be selected before clicking the Remove button.
Edit Button
The Edit button is used to modify an existing record adjustment. The desired adjustment
must be selected before clicking the Edit button.
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View Button
After creating an adjustment, the View can be used to see the actual modified data values
in tabular form. The Time series List form will be displayed. The contents and layout of the
listing can be modified through options in the File, Edit, and View menus. A key feature of the
time series listing is the ability to export the modified values to an external file for use outside of
BASINS CAT. The FilerSave option will save the listed data values to a tab-separated file.
Timeseries List
File Edit View
Analysis Help
History 1
from base.wdrn
from base.wdm
Max
3.072
2.56
—I
Mean
0.0057794
0.0046162
Min
0
0
1955/12/31 09:00
0
0
1955/12/31 10:00
0
0
1955/12/31 11:00
0
0
1955/12/31 12:00
0
0
1955/12/31 13:00
0
0
1955/12/31 14:00
0
0
1955/12/31 15:00
0
0
1955/12/31 16:00
0
0
1955/12/31 17:00
0
0
1955/12/31 18:00
0
0
1955/12/31 19:00
0
0
1955/12/31 20:00
0
0
1955/12/31 21:00
0
0
1955/12/31 22:00
0
0
1955/12/31 23:00
0
0
1955/12/31 24:00
0
0
1956/01/01 01:00
0
0
1956/01/01 02:00
0
0
1956/01/01 03:00
0
0
1956/01/01 04:00
0
0
1956/01/01 05:00
0
0
1956/01/01 06:00
0
0
J
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Prepared Button
The Prepared button allows the user to import scenarios that have been prepared
external to BASINS CAT. These prepared inputs must be .WDM files using appropriate HSPF
input formats. After selecting Prepared, the user will be prompted to Select First base WDM
file to use.
Select First base WDM file to use
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4.1.2. Assessment Endpoints
Climate Assessment Tool
File Edit Options Help
Climate Data Results Table | Pivot Table |
^lnj_xj
Save All Results
P Show Progress of Each Run
Add
Remove
Edit
Copy |
Top JJLI. Eattorn |
Start
EPA's Guidelines to Ecological Risk Assessment define an assessment endpoint as an
explicit expression of an environmental value that is to be protected (U.S. EPA, 1998). More
generally, any ecological attribute of relevance or concern to those conducting an assessment can
be considered an endpoint. Examples include a particular duration-frequency flow event (e.g.,
the 100-year flood, 7Q10 low-flow event), the annual water yield from a watershed, or the
annual nutrient loading to a stream.
BASINS CAT provides a flexible capability to calculate and display assessment
endpoints based on model output time series data. Endpoints are calculated as a post-processing
step using output time series data. This capability allows users to quickly generate data for
assessing the influence of climate change on hydrologic and water quality endpoints of concern
to managers.
The Assessment Endpoints tab contains a list of the Endpoints which the user has
created. To run the model, at least one climate scenario and one endpoint are necessary.
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Check Boxes
At the top of the tab form, there are two checkboxes for options when the model is run.
The user can choose to:
• Save all results - a new set of model inputs and outputs will be saved for each model run,
using the text entered in the New Scenario field on the Climate Data tab as the base
name for the new files. Index numbers will be added to file names when multiple
scenarios are saved.
• Show progress of each run - the model shows a form (shown below) depicting the
progress of each run. This is useful when a particularly long model is being run or a
significant number of model runs is to be performed.
r
HSPF
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Executing
Now
7Q%
Complete
1
urn
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Estimated time left 2 seconds
Pause
| Cancel
Output
Add Button
Clicking the Add button on the Assessment Endpoints tab of the BASINS CAT form
will display the Endpoint form. This form contains the controls needed to define an assessment
endpoint, including the endpoint name, the data set to be analyzed, the attribute of the data set to
be reported, value ranges of concern, and time periods of concern. The screen shown below
exhibits all features of the form.
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Attribute: |Min
Highlight Values
White
Default Color:
Minimum Value: |
Color Lower Values: [DeepSkyBlue
Maximum Value:
Color Higher Values: [OrangeRed
~3
Seasons
Only include values in selected Months
Ok
Cancel
A
The Endpoint Name field is used to provide a text label for identifying the assessment
endpoint being created. The Data set field is used to select the model output time series data
from which to calculate the endpoint. The Attribute pull-down list contains the attributes
available for selection as assessment endpoints. BASINS CAT provides a wide array of
attributes, from standard statistics (e.g., mean, sum, standard deviation) to duration-frequency
statistics (e.g., 7Q10, 100-year flood).
The Highlight Values frame allows for endpoint values of concern to be specified. A
minimum and maximum range can be specified along with color codes to identify the ranges.
Endpoint results within the specified range will be displayed in cells with the Default Color
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background. Results below the Minimum Value will be displayed with the Color Lower
Values background. Results above the Maximum Value will be displayed with the Color
Higher Values background. Colors for all three ranges can be updated by clicking in the color
fields.
The Seasons frame near the bottom of the form is used for specifying a time subset to be
used when computing the endpoint value. To specify a season, click on the Only include values
in selected check box and two additional fields will be displayed. The first field is a list of time
subset options that includes Calendar Years, Months, and Water Years. The second field will
display a list of available time intervals based on the item selected in the first field. For example,
selecting Water Years from the first field will populate the second field with a list of available
water years based on the period of record of the data set. For this example, select the Months
option and the second field will be populated with the months of the year. Items in the second
field can be selected and unselected by clicking on them. Additionally, the buttons below the list
can be used to select All or None of the items.
As new endpoints are defined, they are added to the text box on the Assessment
Endpoints tab. Endpoints in this box can be manipulated further through other buttons on this
tab.
Remove Button
Click on an endpoint to select it, and then click the Remove button to delete the endpoint.
Edit Button
Select an endpoint and click the Edit button to open the main Endpoint form to modify
the endpoint.
Copy Button
If users would like to use a similar endpoint but make a small change (e.g., change which
months are selected), click the Copy button to create a new, identical endpoint that can be edited
more easily than starting over.
Top and Bottom Buttons
These buttons are useful for organization. Select an endpoint, and then click the Top
button to bring the endpoint to the top of the list of endpoints on this tab. Similarly, the Bottom
button will move a selected endpoint to the bottom of the list.
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Arrow Buttons
The Arrow buttons on the right side of the form are used to move the list of endpoints up
and down for organization.
4.1.3. Running an Assessment
Before performing an assessment in BASINS CAT, it is necessary to define the climate
scenario(s) to be used as input to the model. The Climate Data tab displays a list of the
previously defined record adjustments. Each adjustment has a check box for indicating whether
or not it is to be included as a component of the climate scenario being developed. The order of
adjustments can be controlled by selecting an adjustment and using the up and down arrow
buttons above the list. This is particularly important when multiple adjustments are being made
to the same values in an input data set (e.g., increasing an entire precipitation record and also
increasing a season's storm intensity). When synthetic climate change scenarios are selected for
an assessment, multiple scenarios are automatically generated, resulting in multiple model runs.
The Total iterations selected label at the bottom of the BASINS CAT form shows the number of
model runs based on the selected adjustments (along with an estimate of time required).
Climate Assessment Tool
File Edit Options Help
Climate Data j Assessment Endpoints | Results Table | Pivot Table j
Base Scenario |C:'\ElASINS'xData\Climate\base.uci
New Scenario [Modified
Add |
Remove |
Edit
View |
Prepared |
0 Increase Precip Multiply 1.2
C Seasonal Precip Multiply 1.2 Month: Jun Jul Aug
Partial Precip Multiply 0.8 Water Year: 1986
Storm Intensity Intensify 10
\Z Storm Frequency AddEvents 10 Month: Mar Apr May
51
~ Temp Cool Season Add 2 Month: Jan Feb Mar Apr Nov Dec
~ Temp Warm Season Add 4 Month: May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
~ Partial T emp Add 3 Water Year: 1986
C Synthetic T emp Add from 0 to 3 step 1
Synthetic Precip Multiply from 1 to 1.3 step 0.1
Start
T otal iterations selected = 1 [0:08]
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The other step required before performing an assessment is selecting hydrologic or water
quality endpoints of interest. Any number of endpoints can be selected from available model
output. The Top, Bottom, and Up/Down Arrow buttons are useful for arranging the endpoint
values in a desired order on the output results table.
Climate Assessment Tool
File Edit Options Help
Climate Data j Assessment Endpoints ;j Results Table | Pivot Table |
ClSave All Results
I- Show Progress of Each Run
Add
Remove
Edit
Copy 1
Top Bottom |
~ Flow 1 Highl 00
0 Total N SumAnnual
51
~ Summer Flow Min Month: Jun Jul Aug
Start Total iterations selected = 1 (0:08)
Before model execution, two additional options on the Assessment Endpoints tab can be
set: Save All Results and Show Progress of Each Run. The Save All Results check box is
used to set whether or not all model output is saved, not just the assessment endpoint values.
Checking this box will save a new set of output results in the same form as the original model
output. The text from the New Scenario field on the Climate Data tab will be used to build root
file names for the new output files. When saving multiple sets of results, this root file name will
also have model run number added to it. The Show Progress of Each Run check box is used to
set whether or not a status monitor will be displayed while the model is running. If a model run
is particularly long, or a series of model runs are being made using synthetic data, checking this
box can be useful to see the progress of the model run(s).
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4.1.4. Viewing Results
BASINS CAT presents results in the form of assessment endpoint values computed from
model output time series data. BASINS CAT results can be displayed in both a standard results
table and a pivot table. Additionally, it is possible to assess model output results at a greater
level of detail through the main BASINS interface.
Results Table
The Results Table tab displays endpoint values computed from model output time series
data. If a range of concern was specified for an endpoint and the resulting endpoint value is
above or below the specified range, its background color will be set according to the endpoint
specification.
Climate Assessment Tool
File Edit Options Help
ma
Run Partial Precip
Partial T ennp
Total N
Flow
Summer Flow
Multiply
Add
SunrAnnual
Mean
Min
Current Value
Current Value
SCEN RCH5 TN-LOAD
SCEN F!CHS FLOW
SCEN RCHS FLOW
WaterYear (1986)
WaterYear (1886)
Month (Jun Jul Aug )
1 0.8
3
288,280
81.142
10.108
Start Finished with 1 runs
Output tables in BASINS CAT can also be saved to an external file for use outside of the
program. The Save Results item in the File menu will prompt for the file name in which the
results are to be saved. Results are saved in a tab-delimited format, suitable for import into
Excel and other analysis programs. Additionally, the EditrCopy Results menu option will copy
the contents of the results table to the clipboard, making them available for pasting elsewhere.
4-18
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Pivot Table
A pivot table is a data visualization and mining tool that allows users to reorganize
selected columns and rows of data within a database. The term pivot refers to turning the data to
view it from different perspectives. Pivot tables are especially useful for summarizing large
amounts of data in a compact format, looking for patterns and relationships within a data set, and
organizing data into a format suitable for plotting as a chart.
The Pivot Table tab allows users to view model output data (the same data listed in the
results table) in a pivot table. The Rows and Columns fields must be selected from the
dropdown lists on this tab. This feature is especially useful when synthetic climate change
scenarios are used and the effects of varying climatic changes on a selected endpoint are being
investigated. The first two fields of this form are used to specify what element to vary in the
Rows and Columns of the pivot table. The Cells field is used to specify what element will be
displayed in the pivot table's cells.
Climate Assessment Tool
File Edit Options Help
Climate Data | Assessment Endpoints | Results Table Pivot Table |
~ie]
Fl ows I Synthetic T emp Add Current Valuej
»
Columns |Synthetic Precip Multiply Current Value
u
Cells (Flow Mean SCEN RCH5 FLOW
u
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
0
95.307
114.23
133.75
153.73
1
92.751
111.44
130.79
150.81
2
90.238
108.89
127.8
147.47
3
37.783
105.98
124.85
144.33
Start Finished with 16 runs
As with BASINS CAT's standard Results Table, pivot table results can also be saved to
an external file. The File: Save Pivot option will prompt for the file name in which the pivot
table is to be saved. Additionally, the EditrCopy Pivot menu option will copy the contents of
the pivot table to the clipboard, making them available for pasting elsewhere.
4-19
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-------
5. TUTORIALS
This chapter provides a set of tutorials illustrating how various tasks are completed using
BASINS CAT. Each tutorial is presented as a short demonstration of a specific feature or
capability using a sample data set distributed with BASINS 4. Tutorials are presented in an
order that approximates how a typical application of BASINS CAT might progress from
beginning to end. The organization of tutorials in this chapter is also parallel in structure to the
narrative discussion of BASINS CAT capabilities in Section 3.3 of Chapter 3. For example,
each option for adjusting precipitation data described in Sections 3.3.1.1.1 through 3.3.1.1.5 has
a corresponding tutorial in Chapter 5, Sections 5.1.1 through 5.1.5.
Tutorials in this chapter are organized as follows:
5. BASINS CAT set-up (required tutorial)
5.1 Tools for developing climate change scenarios
5.2 Tools for assessing hydrologic and water quality endpoints
5.3 Running an HSPF simulation using BASINS CAT
5.4 Summarizing and visualizing results
The BASINS CAT Set-up tutorial must be run before any other tutorial. Other than this,
there is flexibility in how tutorials can be run. It is not necessary to run every tutorial, although
in certain cases (e.g., under Running an Assessment and Summarizing and Visualizing Results),
tutorials later in the chapter may refer to information developed in an earlier session. To make
this clear to the user, each tutorial will list any tutorials that must previously be run.
Additionally, note that screen shots shown in later tutorials may look different than those shown
depending on which tutorials are run.
Finally, it should be noted that conducting an analysis with BASINS CAT requires a
pre-existing, calibrated HSPF model. BASINS CAT imposes no constraints on the type and
magnitude of climate change scenarios that can be created. It is therefore incumbent on BASINS
CAT users to consider the validity of any HSPF simulation, particularly when evaluating change
scenarios well outside the range of climatic variability observed during the calibration period.
NOTE: The data shown in the tutorials is for demonstration purpose only and does not
represent calibrated model results.
5-1
-------
BASINS CAT Set-up
This tutorial illustrates how to access BASINS CAT from within BASINS and the initial
steps required to begin a climate change assessment. The steps in this tutorial must be
performed before running any other tutorials.
Before beginning this tutorial, it is necessary to review the elements required for using
BASINS CAT:
• A calibrated HSPF application
• WDM file containing HSPF input meteorological time series
• Output file(s) to which HSPF is saving results (WDM or binary)
Data used in the tutorials are taken from the sample files provided with the BASINS
installation package. These files are found in the \BASINS\data\Climate folder. BASINS CAT
is one of various software plug-ins that make up the BASINS system. The first step in setting up
BASINS CAT to run in BASINS is to be sure it is loaded as a plug-in. Select Climate
Assessment Tool from the Plug-ins:Analysis submenu by placing a check next to it.
Plug-ins
Watershed Delineation Shapefile Editor
GIS Tools Help
Edit Plug-ins
1 1 w
Scripts-
Analysis ~
>s
Cli.gen
V
Archive Project Tool <1
y
CIimate Assessment Tool
V
BASINS 4
¦s
Data Tree
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vf
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Duration
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GIS Tools
s
Frequency Grid
id
Manual Delineation
s
Graph
W
Model Segmentation
V*
List
Id
Model Setup (hsff/aquatox)
V
Lookup Tables
bd
Pollutant Loading Estimator (PLQAD)
Reclassify Land Use
E
Shapefile Editor
v'
Seasonal Attributes
Timeseries ~
V/
SWSTAT
0
Watershed Delineation
Synoptic
Watershed Characterization Reports
5-2
-------
This will add the Climate Assessment Tool to the Analysis menu. (Note: It is not
required for the main BASINS form to appear as shown here.)
BASINS 4 ¦ 02060006
Analysis
Models Ed* View Plug-ins Watershed Defcneation Shapefile Editor GISToofe Help
ArcView 3
ArcGIS
Legend
015 Terrari Anati
-| IB Watershee
& Stream Re
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~ NHD 0206
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Climate Assessment Tool
Data Tree
Frequency Grid
Graph
Seasonal Attributes
Watershed Characterization Reports
Reclassify Land Use
Projection Parameters
ST0RET Agency Codes
Standard Industrial Classification Codes
Water Quality Criteria 304a
Preview Map
X; 349.797 Y: 4285.E54 Kilometers X: 349796.9 V: 4285G54.023 Meters
5-3
-------
1. Select the AnalysisrClimate Assessment Tool menu option. The following form will
appear.
Climate Assessment Tool
JnJxJ
File Edit Options Help
Climate Data | Assessment Endpoints | Results Table | Pivot Table |
Base Scenario |
New Scenario IModified
Add
Remove
Edit
View
Prepared
Start
5-4
-------
2. Before beginning the process of generating and analyzing climate change scenarios, a
base scenario must be specified. All new climate change scenarios will be created from
this scenario. To specify this scenario, click in the Base Scenario box and select the file
YBASINS\data\Climate\base.uci. When this UCI file is selected, all input and output data
files (including both WDM and binary file types) specified in the UCI file will be loaded
into the BASINS project and made available for use in BASINS CAT. For these
tutorials, meteorological data are found in the file \BASINS\data\Climate\base.wdm.
Leave the New Scenario name as "Modified."
Climate Assessment Tool
File Edit Options Help
Climate Data | Assessment Endpoints | Results Table ] Pivot Table |
Base Scenario | C: \BAS IN S \Data\Ciirnate\base. uci
~HE]
New Sceitarfc J Modified
Add
Remove
Edit
View Prepared
Start
5-5
-------
3. It is advisable to save the state of the Climate Assessment Tool as tutorial exercises are
completed. Doing so will save all current specifications made on the main BASINS CAT
form (Base Scenario, New Scenario, Climate Data adjustments, Assessment Endpoints)
to a file that can be opened at a later time to restore those specifications. This will allow
later tutorials, which depend on results from earlier tutorials, to be run without re-running
the earlier tutorials. To perform this save, select the FilerSave Climate and Endpoints
menu option from the Climate Assessment Tool form. A file dialogue form will prompt
the user for the name of a file in which the state of BASINS CAT will be saved. This
saved state can then be retrieved at a later time using the File:Load Climate and
Endpoints menu option. The file will be saved as type "XML file (*.xml)."
Save Variations as XML Text
Tlx]
Save in:
| i Climate
zl
r * m*
It.
§ [CAT-Tutorial, xmt
Hp
My Recenl
Document*
m
Desktop
#
My Documents
My Computet
My Netwoik
Places
File name: | CAT -Tutorial xml
d I
Save
S ave as type: |XM L files (*.xmQ
d
Cancel
4. At this point, the generation and assessment of climate change scenarios can be
performed. The remaining tutorials contain exercises showing how to generate new
climate change scenarios, specify hydrologic or water quality endpoints, run an
assessment, and summarize and visualize results. This completes the BASINS CAT
Set-up tutorial.
5-6
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5.1. TOOLS FOR DEVELOPING CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS
Climate change scenarios are created in BASINS CAT by modifying, or adjusting,
historical meteorological time series data to reflect a desired change or set of changes.
Adjustments can be applied to precipitation and temperature time series. The tutorials in this
section illustrate the major types of adjustment that can be made to historical meteorological data
using BASINS CAT.
5.1.1. Modify Historical Precipitation Records
The tutorials in this section demonstrate the following precipitation adjustments:
• Apply multiplier to full record
• Apply seasonal multiplier
• Modify partial record
• Represent storm intensification
• Add or remove storm events
The BASINS CAT Set-up tutorial in Section 5.0 must be run before beginning these
tutorials. This is necessary to ensure that the Climate Assessment Tool form is properly
initialized.
5-7
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5.1.1.1. Apply Multiplier to Full Record
To begin this tutorial, the Climate Assessment Tool form should be displayed with the
"\Basins\Data\Climate\base.uci" file as the Base Scenario, "Modified" as the New Scenario,
and the "\Basins\Data\Climate\base.wdm" file (not shown in the image below) added to the
BASINS project. These specifications are performed in the BASINS CAT Set-up tutorial in
Section 5.0, which must be run before this tutorial.
Climate Assessment Tool
Fie Edit Options Help
Climate Data | Assessment Endpoint£..|..BesulLs...riible | Pivot T abJe j
BaseScetwrip""' | C:\EASlfsl S \Data\Ciimale\baie. uci \
~HZ]
N ew Scenario ] M odified
1 Add 1
Remove |
Edit
View j
Prepared
1
Start
The simplest method of modifying precipitation is to apply a constant multiplier to
historical values over the entire span of the model run, or full record. For background on how
this feature can be used to represent climate change scenarios, see Section 3.3.1.1.1.
This tutorial shows how a single multiplier can be applied to an entire historical
precipitation data record. The final result of the tutorial is a record adjustment that applies a
multiplier to historical precipitation data for use as model input.
5-8
-------
1. To begin creating a new record adjustment, click the Add button and the Modify
Existing Data form will be displayed. This form contains the controls needed to define a
record adjustment, including an identification label, the data set(s) to be modified, and
how the data are to be modified. The Modification Name field is used to provide a text
label for identifying the scenario being created. Begin defining this scenario by entering
"Increase Precip" in the Modification Name field.
Modify Existing Data
^¦.inlxl
Modification Name: J Increase Piecip
Existing Data to Modify: |
View |
Compute PET: |
-------
2. To select the precipitation data to modify, click in the Existing Data to Modify box and
the Select data to vary form will be di splayed. In the top third of this form, titled Select
Attribute Values to Filter Available Data, users can filter the type of data to select by
Scenario, Location, or Constituent. The data matching your selections will appear in the
middle third of the form, titled Matching Data. Data sets can then be selected from the
Matching Data list, which will add them to the Selected Data list in the lower third of
the form. Clicking on a selected data set in either the Matching Data or Selected Data
lists will unselect it. If all data sets in the Matching Data list are desired, it is not
necessary to add each one to the Selected Data list.
Select data to vary
File Attt&yte* Select- Help
Select Attribute Values to Filler Available Daia
J Scenario
OBSERVED
PT-OBS
SCEM
base
Matching Data (2221 of 2221)
"31 Location
01594526
BELTSVIL
1:101
LAUREL
P101
R102
^r] fc* nstfcent
^ J AGWET
J ma
A6W0
AGWS
AIRT
AIRTMP
"3
=1
OBSERVED
FLOW
J
OBSERVED
LAUREL
HPRECIP
OBSERVED
UPMARLBR
HPREClP
OBSERVED
BELTSVIL
PET
OBSERVED
BELTSVIL
AIRTMP
OBSERVED1
WASHJW
CLOUD
OBSERVED
WASH_NAT
WIND
OBSERVED
WASH.NAT
DEWPT
OBSERVED
WASH_NAT
SOLRAD
Selected Data (0)
5-10
-------
3. Begin the selection process by looking at the first column, labeled Scenario, in the Select
Attribute Values to Filter Available Data frame. Click on the OBSERVED item. All
data sets with a Scenario attribute of OBSERVED will be added to the Matching Data
list. In looking at the last column of the Matching Data list, note that there are two data
sets with the Constituent name HPRECIP (hourly precipitation). The HSPF model
used in this example is only using precipitation from the Upper Marlboro gage, so click
on the data set with UPMARLBR and HPRECIP as the respective Location and
Constituent. When this data set has moved to the Selected Data list, click the Ok
button.
Select data to vary
Fife Attributes Seiect Help
Select Attribute Values to Filler Available Data
f Scenario ll\ Location
OBSERVED
PT-'OBS'"
SCEN
base
Matching Data (27 of 2221 j
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
Q15S452G
BELTSVtL
1:101
LAUREL
P:101
P:102
01594526
LAUREL
UPMARLBR
BELTSVtL
BELTSVtL
WASH.NAT
WASH_NAT
WASH_NAT
WASH NAT
t | (Constituent
dAGWET
AGWt
AGWO
AGWS
AJRT
AIRTMP
FLOW
¦¦HFREGIP-
HPRECIP
-PET
AIRTMR
CLOUD
WIND
DEWFT
SOLRAD
^injxj
=1
d
Selected Data (1 of222T)
OBSERVED
UPMARLBR
HPRECIP
Dates to include
All | Common
Start 1955H2/31
End 199ffl2/31
1955'12/31
1990/12/31
1955 1Z 31
1990/12/31
Ok
Caned
5-11
-------
Note: When selecting the time series data set to adjust, more than one data set may be
selected. This allows users to apply the same adjustments to multiple data sets. This is
particularly useful for creating climate change scenarios for multiple meteorological inputs
(e.g., NCDC weather stations) used in an HSPF simulation. When multiple data sets are
selected, this will be reflected on the Modify Existing Data form in the Existing Data to
Modify box. The first data set selected will be listed as described above, but the text "and n
more" will be added, where n is the number of additional time series selected. After making
an adjustment, the name of the adjustment will not, however, indicate that it will be applied
to multiple data sets. It is thus recommended that users select names for adjustments that are
appropriately descriptive.
4. The Modify Existing Data form has now been updated with a description of the selected
data set in the Existing Data to Modify box. The Compute PET box is for selecting the
evapotranspiration data set to modify when a temperature climate scenario is being
defined and can be ignored for this example. The How to Modify box contains a list of
methods for modifying the data-set values. For this example, the "Multiply Existing
Values by a Number" option will be used. In the Number to multiply existing data by
frame, there are two modification options: Single Change or Iterate Changes. The
Single Change option will result in one adjustment applied to the precipitation data set.
The term "iterate", as used here, refers to the automation of multiple runs. The Iterate
Changes option will result in a series of adjustments to the precipitation data set and is
used to create synthetic climate change scenarios as described in Section 3.3.1.5. Use of
this option is shown in the tutorial found in Section 5.1.5 Create Synthetic Climate
Change Scenarios. For this example, we will use the Single Change option. Enter "1.2"
in the Value field, thus defining the value by which all values in the precipitation data set
will be multiplied. The Events and Seasons frames are not used in this example, because
the entire precipitation data record is being multiplied by the designated factor. Click the
Ok button to complete the scenario definition process.
5-12
-------
* Modify Existing Data
^~jxj
Modification Name: | Increase Pre cap
Ex.si.Rg Oats to Modify; (OBSERVED UPMASLBR HPRHCIP Vie* |
Compute PET: | ccick t0 5geg^..P£Ilg..r^age > View |
Hew So Modify: (' jMultiply Existing Values by a Number )t"|
Number to multiply existing data'ty;
<• Single Change ]Q Iterate Changes
Value ( fTlj .^multiplication factor
Events
r Vary precipitation only in the following Events
Seasons
P Vary only in selected
5-13
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5. The Climate Assessment Tool form is now updated to show the newly defined climate
scenario.
v Climate Assessment Tool
File Ed* Options Kelp
Climate Data |j Assessment Endpoirts ] Results T able ] Pi vol T able |
QUE]
5-14
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6. To view a listing of the modified precipitation data set, click on the newly created record
adjustment to select it and then click the View button. The Time series List form opens,
displaying a listing of the values in the modified data set.
\Zx Timeseries List T
xjl
File Edit View Analysis Help
History 1
from base.wdm
-
Min
0
Max
3.072
Mean
0.0057794
1955/12/31 09:00
0
1955/12/31 10:00
0
1955/12/31 11:00
0
1955/12/3112:00
0
1955/12/31 13:00
0
1955/12/31 14:00
0
1955/12/31 15:00
0
1955/12/31 16:00
0
1955/12/31 17:00
0
1955/12/31 13:00
0
1955/12/3119:00
0
1955/12/31 20:00
0
1955/12/31 21:00
0
1955/12/31 22:00
0
1955/12/31 23:00
0
1955/12/31 24:00
0
1956/01/01 01:00
0
1956/01/01 02:00
0
1956/01/01 03:00
0
1956/01/01 04: DO
0
1956/01/01 05:00
0
1956/01/01 06:00
0
5-15
-------
7. To view the modified data next to the original, select the FilerSelect Data menu option
and the Select Data form will be displayed. Like earlier in this tutorial, click the
OBSERVED item from the Scenario list and then click the OBSERVED,
UPMARLBR, HPRECIP data set from the Matching Data list. It will be added to the
Selected Data list along with the modified precipitation data set that is already in the
Time series List form. Click Ok and the two data sets values will be displayed.
Timeseries List
File Edit View
Analysis Help
History 1
from base.wdrn
from base.wdm
Max
3.072
2.56
—I
Mean
0.0057794
0.0046162
M in
0
0
1955/12/31 09:00
0
0
1955/12/31 10:00
0
0
1955/12/31 11:00
0
0
1955/12/31 12:00
0
0
1955/12/31 13:00
0
0
1955/12/31 14:00
0
0
1955/12/31 15:00
0
0
1955/12/31 16:00
0
0
1955/12/31 17:00
0
0
1955/12/31 18:00
0
0
1955/12/31 19:00
0
0
1955/12/31 20:00
0
0
1955/12/31 21:00
0
0
1955/12/31 22:00
0
0
1955/12/31 23:00
0
0
1955/12/31 24:00
0
0
1956/01/01 01:00
0
0
1956/01/01 02:00
0
0
1956/01/01 03:00
0
0
1956/01/01 04:00
0
0
1956/01/01 05:00
0
0
1956/01/01 06:00
0
0
J
8. To complete this tutorial, close the Time series List form and save the state of BASINS
CAT, using the File: Save Climate and Endpoints menu option, if desired.
5-16
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5.1.1.2. Apply Seasonal Multiplier
To begin this tutorial, the Climate Assessment Tool form should be displayed with the
"\Basins\Data\Climate\base.uci" file as the Base Scenario, "Modified" as the New Scenario,
and the "\Basins\Data\Climate\base.wdm" file added to the BASINS project. These
specifications are performed in the BASINS CAT Set-up tutorial in Section 5.0, which must be
run before this tutorial.
A common climate scenario need is to adjust historical values during a particular month
or season of the year over the entire span of the model run. For background on how this feature
can be used to represent climate change scenarios, see Section 3.3.1.1.2.
This tutorial shows how a single multiplier can be applied to precipitation data during a
specific month or season of the year. The final result of the tutorial is a climate scenario that
applies a multiplier to historical precipitation data only during a single season of the year, here
the summer months, for use as model input.
5-17
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1. To begin creating a new climate scenario, click the Add button. The Modify Existing
Data form will be displayed. This form contains the controls needed to define a record
adjustment, including an identification label, the data set(s) to be modified, and how the
data are to be modified. The Modification Name field is used to provide a text label for
identifying the scenario being created. Begin defining this scenario by entering
"Seasonal Precip" in the Modification Name field.
^ Modify Existing Data
nsrxi
Modulation Name: C (Seasonal Ptecip
Enisling Data to Modily: | View
Compute PET: |
-------
2. To select the precipitation data to modify, click in the Existing Data to Modify box and
the Select data to vary form will be displayed. A detailed description of this form is
found in steps 2 and 3 of the tutorial in Section 5.1.1.1. In the first column, under the
Scenario label, click on the OBSERVED item. In looking at the Matching Data list,
note that there are two data sets with the Constituent name HPRECIP (hourly
precipitation). The HSPF model used in this example is only applying precipitation from
the Upper Marlboro gage, so click on the data set with UPMARLBR and HPRECIP as
the respective Location and Constituent. (Note: It is possible for more than one data
set to be selected for use in defining a climate scenario.) When this data set has moved to
the Selected Data list, click the Ok button.
\Z Select data to vary
-iDlxl
File Attributes Select Help
Select Attribute Values to Filler Available Data
[Scenario * |
llotafeon
_*J |Consttuesm
_lJ
S| OBSERVED
*021584526 _^|
AGWET
FT-OBS
BELTSV1L
AGWI —'
SCEN
1:101
AG\'»
base
UUREL
AGWS
P101
A1RT
PI 02
zj
AIRTMP
Matching Data (27 of 2221)
OBSERVED
01594526
FLOW
A
OBSERVED
LAUREL
¦HPRECIP.
|OBSERVED
UPMARLBR
HPRECIP
i
1 OBSERVED
©EtTStftt
"PET
n
OBSERVED
BELTSV1L
AIRTMP
OBSERVED
WASH_NAT
CLOUD
OBSERVED
WASH_NAT
WIND
OBSERVED
V./ASH_MAT
DEWPT
OBSERVED
WASHJ-JAT
SQLRAD
J
- Hls'ts f"f rvf 1 "H
o6l&CE6u L-2E3 i I OT III IJ
OBSERVED
UPMARLBR
HPRECIP
uaies to HHC4UO6
All I Common |
Start 1355/12/31 1955/12/31
1955/12/31
Eftd 1990/1231 1990/1231
|1990/12/31
Ok
Canes!
5-19
-------
3. The Modify Existing Data form has now been updated with a description of the selected
data set in the Existing Data to Modify box. The Compute PET box is for selecting the
evapotranspiration data set to modify when a temperature climate scenario is being
defined and can be ignored for this example. The How to Modify box contains a list of
methods for modifying the data-set values. For this example, the "Multiply Existing
Values by a Number" option will be used. A detailed description of the Number to
multiply existing data by frame is found in the tutorial in Section 5.1.1.1. For this
example, we will use the Single Change option. Enter "1.2" in the Value field, thus
defining the value by which selected values in the precipitation data set will be
multiplied.
' Modify Existing Data
^jn]_xj
Modification Name, ]Seasonal Piecip
Existing Data to Modify: (OBSERVED UPMARLBR HPREOP
Compute PET- | cdiek (o specify PET to replace >
How to Modify: (jMultipty EssSng Values by 3 Number *
r"Number lomultiply existing data by
Single Change C Iterate Changes
Value ([l 2 ) multiplication factor
View
View
r Events
r Vary precipitation omfy in the following Events
Seasons
f~ Vary only in selected
Ok
Caned
m
5-20
-------
4. The Seasons frame near the bottom of the form is used for specifying a time subset of the
data set to which the modification will be applied. Begin defining this subset by clicking
on the Vary only in selected check box. Two additional fields will be displayed. The
first field is a drop-down list of time subset options that includes Calendar Years,
Months, and Water Years. The second field will display a list of available time
intervals based on the item selected in the first field. For example, selecting Water
Years from the first field will populate the second field with a list of available water
years based on the period of record of the data set. For this example, select the Months
option. The second field will be populated with the months of the year. Items in the
second field can be selected and unselected by clicking on them. Additionally, the
buttons below the list can be used to select All or None of the items. To represent
increased precipitation during summer months, select Jun, Jul, and Aug.
Z. Modify Existing Data
^lo]x]
View
Modification Name: [Seasonal Preap
Existing Data to Modify: [OBSERVED UPMARLBR HPRECIP
Compute PET: [
-------
5. Click the Ok button to complete the scenario definition process. The Climate
Assessment Tool form is now updated to show the newly defined climate scenario.
Climate Assessment Tool
File Edit Options Help
Climate Data | Assessment Endpoants | Results Table | Pivot Table j
Base Scenario |C:\BASlNS\Data\Oimale\base.uci
New Scenario |Modified
~S
|| Add 1
Remove
Edit
View
Prepared
_dU
3 Seasonal Piecip Multiply 1.2Momh: JunJu) Aug}
Start
T otal iteiations selected = 1 (0:05)
6. To complete this tutorial, save the state of CAT, using the FilerSave Climate and
Endpoints menu option, if desired.
5.1.1.3. Modify Partial Record
To begin this tutorial, the Climate Assessment Tool form should be displayed with the
"\Basins\Data\Climate\base.uci" file as the Base Scenario, "Modified" as the New Scenario,
and the "\Basins\Data\Climate\base.wdm" file added to the BASINS project. These
specifications are performed in the BASINS CAT Set-up tutorial in Section 5.0, which must be
run before this tutorial.
A common climate scenario need is to adjust historical values during only a particular set
of years, or partial record, of the model run. For example, assessing the impacts of increased
drought severity can include decreasing the precipitation total for an already low-rainfall year(s),
without adjusting rainfall in other years. For background on how this feature can be used to
represent climate change scenarios, see Section 3.3.1.1.3.
5-22
-------
This tutorial shows how a single multiplier can be applied to precipitation data during a
specific portion of the model run. The final result of the tutorial is a record adjustment that
applies a multiplier to historical precipitation data during only a single year of a model run.
1. To begin creating a new climate scenario, click the Add button. The Modify Existing
Data form will be displayed. This form contains the controls needed to define a record
adjustment, including an identification label, the data set(s) to be modified, and how the
data are to be modified. The Modification Name field is used to provide a text label for
identifying the scenario being created. Begin defining this scenario by entering "Partial
Precip" in the Modification Name field.
Modify Existing Data
MB
M odif ieation N ame: •¦¦....[partial Precip
View
Existing Data to Modify: [
-------
2. To select the precipitation data to modify, click in the Existing Data to Modify box. The
Select data to vary form will be displayed. A detailed description of this form is found
in steps 2 and 3 of the tutorial in Section 3.1.1.1. In the first column, under the Scenario
label, click on the OBSERVED item. In looking at the Matching Data list, note that
there are two data sets with the Constituent name HPRECIP (hourly precipitation). The
HSPF model used in this example is only applying precipitation from the Upper
Marlboro gage, so click on the data set with UPMARLBR and HPRECIP as the
respective Location and Constituent. (Note: It is possible for more than one data set to
be selected for use in defining a climate scenario.) When this data set has moved to the
Selected Data list, click the Ok button.
[!L Select data to vary
JDJXJ
File Attributes Select Help
Select Attribute Values to Filter Available Data
| Scenario
| Location
(Constituent |
j| OBSERVED
>1594526 *1
AG\*/ET
=1
ft-oBs
BELTSV1L
AGW!
SCEN
1:101
AGWO
base
LAUREL
AGWS
P:101
AJRT
P1Q2 »J
AiRTMP U
Matching Data (27 of 2221)
OBSERVED
015S452£
FLOW
*
OBSERVED
•LAUREL- -
HPRECIP
L
|06SERVED
UPMARLBR
HPRECIP
OBSERVED
"BEtfSVtl:
•PET
OBSERVED
BELTSV1L
AJRTMP
OBSERVED
WASH_MAT
CLOUD
OBSERVED
WASH_NAT
WIND
OBSERVED
WASH.NAT
OB'/PT
OBSERVED
WASH.NAT
SOLRAD
r Selected Data P of 2221)
OBSERVED
UPMARLBR
HPRECIP
Dates to Ircluoe
AJI | Common |
Slant 1955i'"l2''31 1955/1231
End 1990/1231 19MTO31
19SS/12/31
|1990/12/31
Ok Cancel
j
!
1
5-24
-------
3. The Modify Existing Data form has now been updated with a description of the selected
data set in the Existing Data to Modify box. The Compute PET box is for selecting the
evapotranspiration data set to modify when a temperature climate scenario is being
defined and can be ignored for this example. The How to Modify box contains a list of
methods for modifying the data-set values. For this example, the "Multiply Existing
Values by a Number" option will be used. A detailed description of the Number to
multiply existing data by frame is found in the tutorial in Section 5.1.1.1. For this
example, we will use the Single Change option. Enter "0.8" in the Value field, thus
defining the value by which the precipitation values will be multiplied during the year
specified in the next step.
Z Modify Existing Data
^JnJxj
Modification Nairn* ]Partial Preop
Existing Data to Modify: jOBSERVED UPMARLBR HPREClP
Compute PET: j (dick to speafjf PET to replace?
How to Modify. <...jMultip3y Easting Values by a Number
r~ Number to multiply existing data by
(* Sngle Change ...C... Iterate Charges
Value C. foil jmuftiplication factoc
View
View
Events
r Vary precipitation only in the following Events
5-25
-------
4. The Seasons frame near the bottom of the form is used for specifying a time subset of the
data set to which the modification will be applied. Begin defining this subset by clicking
on the Vary only in selected check box. Two additional fields will be displayed. The
first field is a list of time subset options that includes Calendar Years, Months, and
Water Years. The second field will display a list of available time intervals based on the
item selected in the first field. For example, selecting Water Years from the first field
will populate the second field with a list of available water years based on the period of
record of the data set. Items in the second field can be selected and unselected by
clicking on them. Additionally, the buttons below the list can be used to select All or
None of the items. The sample HSPF model used here will be run for water years 1986
through 1988, with 1986 being the driest. Thus, to help assess the impact of drought,
select the Water Years option and then select 1986 from the list of available water years.
Modify Existing Data
- ~! x
Modification Name: [Partial Precip
Existing Data to Modify: {OBSERVED UPMARLBR HPRECIP View
Compute PET: [cclick to specify PET to replace; View
How to Modify: {Multiply E»sting Values by a Number
Number lo multiply existing data by
(• Single Change C Iterate Changes
[o"I multiplication factor
J
Value
-Events
V Vary precipitation only in Hie following Events
Seasons
R Vary only in selected
Water Years
X3
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
19S8
1565
1969
1973
1977
1981
13S5
1939
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
¦ 1986
¦1990
1967
1971
1975
1979
1983
1987
199 V
LsJ 1,/
All
_
None
Ok
Cancel
A
5-26
-------
5. Click the Ok button to complete the scenario definition process. The Climate
Assessment Tool form is now updated to show the newly defined climate scenario.
Climate Assessment Toot
File Edit Options Help
Cimate Data | Assessment Endpoints | Results Table | Pivot Table ]
Base Scenario | C: AS IN 5 \Data\Qimale\base. ua
New Scenario |Modified
~as
Add
Remove
Edit
View
Prepared
jJjJ
2 Increase Precip Multiply 1.2
.Seamnal Pwcip Multiple I.SMonlteJun Jut Aug
yi Partial Precip M uKjply 0.8 Water Year: 19§6>
Start
T olal iteiations selected = 1 (0:08)
6. To complete this tutorial, save the state of BASINS CAT, using the FilerSave Climate
and Endpoints menu option, if desired.
5.1.1.4. Represent Storm Intensification
To begin this tutorial, the Climate Assessment Tool form should be displayed with the
"\Basins\Data\Climate\base.uci" file as the Base Scenario, "Modified" as the New Scenario,
and the "\Basins\Data\Climate\base.wdm" file added to the BASINS project. These
specifications are performed in the BASINS CAT Set-up tutorial in Section 5.0, which must be
run before this tutorial.
BASINS CAT has the ability to adjust storm volumes only within selected events within
the historical record. This capability allows users to represent changes in the proportion of
precipitation occurring in larger versus smaller events. For background on how this feature can
be used to represent climate change scenarios, see Section 3.3.1.1.4.
5-27
-------
This tutorial shows how to make adjustments to represent storm intensification. The final
result of the tutorial is a climate scenario that applies an increase in storm volumes only to those
events within a specified size class.
1. To begin creating a new climate scenario, click the Add button. The Modify Existing
Data form will be displayed. This form contains the controls needed to define a record
adjustment, including an identification label, the data set(s) to be modified, and how the
data are to be modified. Begin defining this scenario by entering "Storm Intensity" in the
Modification Name field.
J_ Modify Existing Data
Modification Name;
|
View |
|
View
Compute Ft T:
How to Modify: I Multiply Existing Values by a Number "^*j
Number to multiply existing data by
f* Single Change C iteiate Changes
Value \U mrfiplication facto#
Seasons
I- Vary only in selected
~k
Cancel
5-28
-------
2. Since we will be modifying historical precipitation data, begin the selection process by
clicking on the OBSERVED item under the Scenario list. In looking at the Matching
Data list, note that there are two data sets with the Constituent name HPRECIP (hourly
precipitation). The HSPF model used in this example is only applying precipitation from
the Upper Marlboro gage, so click on the data set with UPMARLBR and HPRECIP as
the respective Location and Constituent. (Note: It is possible for more than one data
set to be selected for use in defining a climate scenario.) When this data set has moved to
the Selected Data list, click the Ok button.
Select data to vary
File Attributes Select Help
Select Attribute Values to Filter Available Data
WW)..
" j [Location
- 1 [Constituent
3
| OBSERVED
PJ)1594526
d
AGV/ET
FT-OBS
BELTSW1L
J
AGWI —1
SCEN
1:101
AGWO
base
LAUREL
AGW5
P. 101
A1RT
PI 02
zl
AjRTMP
zJ
Matching Data (27 of 2221)
OBSERVED
01534526
FLOW
-
OBSERVED
LAUREL
•HPREGB.
OBSERVED
| UPMARLBR
HPRECIP
OBSERVED
SitTSVft
—
"PET
OBSERVED
8ELTSVIL
A1RTMP
OBSERVED
WASH_NAT
CLOUD
OBSERVED
WASH_NAT
WIND
OBSERVED
WASH_NAT
DEW
OBSERVED
WASH_NA!
SOLRAD
•
Selected Data (1 of 2221)
OBSERVED
UPMARLBR
HPRECIP
Dates to Include
All I
Start 1955/13131
End 1990/1231
Common |
1955/12/31
1990/12®1
|1955/12/31
113M/12/31"
Ok
Cancel
5-29
-------
3. The Modify Existing Data form has now been updated with a description of the selected
data set in the Existing Data to Modify box. The Compute PET box is for selecting the
evapotranspiration data set to modify when a temperature climate scenario is being
defined and can be ignored for this example. The How to Modify box contains a list of
methods for modifying the data-set values. For this example, select "Add/Remove
Volume in Extreme Events." The form will be updated to allow for specification of
storm intensity modifications.
Modify Existing Data
~as
I Storm Intensity
Modification Name:
Existing Data to Modify: (OBSERVED UPMARLBR HPREOP
Compute PET: |
How lo Modify: CjAdd/Remove Volume in Extreme Events>
Percent Change in Volume
View
View
C Single Change f Hecate Changes
(To
Value
%
Events
|v V-ary precipitation only in the following Events Change r % of volume
Hourly intensity above Jo in/h*
[o houis
inches
Total duration above [5 houis
Allow gaps up to
Total volume above |Q
Seasons
r Vary ody in selected
Ok
Cancel
A
5-30
-------
4. In the Percent Change in Volume frame, leave the Single Change option selected and
enter a value of "10" percent. It is important to note that this value indicates the percent
change in the total water volume for the entire data set. This is the total volume change
that will be distributed among the events we specify in the following steps. In the Events
frame, there are two components available for specifying storm intensification: Vary
precipitation only in the following Events and Change a specified % of volume. By
default, the option to Vary precipitation only in the following Events is checked.
Values can be entered for any or all of the four elements that define an extreme event.
Enter "0.1" in the Hourly intensity above field, indicating that only events with greater
than 0.1 inches/hour will be considered storm events. The Change ... % of volume field
is used to specify the percentage of the qualifying events to be modified. Leaving this
field blank will result in the specified volume change being applied to all qualifying
events. Entering a percentage value will result in the volume change being applied to the
highest storms that total the specified percentage of the data set's volume. Enter a value
of "20" percent of the volume, which will result in a more intense modification being
applied to a smaller subset of storms. BASINS CAT will calculate and add volume to the
highest 20% of events over 0.1 inches/hour such that the total added volume equals 10%
of the total volume for the entire base data set.
5-31
-------
_ Modify Existing Data
TTnRl
Modification Name: | Storm Intensity
Existing Data to Modify: |OBSERVED UPMARLBR HPREOP View |
Compute PET: | View
How lo Modify: [Add/Remove Volume in Extreme Event?
Percent Change in Volume
'* Single Change ¦C.Jlerate Changes
Value (" [TO ")%
Events.-"
Vary precipitation only in the following Events Change |20 % of volume
Hourly intensity above 10.1
in/hi
Allow gaps up to |o
horns
Total volume above |0
inches
Total duration above |0
houis
Seasons
r Vary orriy in selected
Ok Cancel
— w
5-32
-------
5. Click the Ok button at the bottom of the form. This scenario, as summarized on the main
BASINS CAT form, will intensify the storms defined on the previous form by adding
10% of the data set's total volume to them.
Climate Assessment Tool
File Edit Options Help
Climate Data | Assessment Endpoints | Results Table | Pivot Table |
Base Scenario
New Scenario
| CAB AS! N S \D ata\Climate\base. uci
(Modified
Remove
TD
UJ
View j
Prepared |
y Increase Riecip Multiply 1.2
S3 Seasonal Precip Multiply 1.2 Month: JunJulAug
frl PattoL.BrjeaD.MiiliDlitiLS.Watet Year 1986
S3 Storm Intensity Intensify 10
Start Total iterations selected = 1 (0:08)
6. After defining this scenario, the user can use the View button to see the values in the
modified data sets. Users may also want to save the state of BASINS CAT using the
File:Save Climate and Endpoints menu option.
5.1.1.5. Add or Remove Storm Events
To begin this tutorial, the Climate Assessment Tool form should be displayed with the
"VBasins\Data\Climate\base.uci" file as the Base Scenario, "Modified" as the New Scenario,
and the "\Basins\Data\Climate\base.wdm" file added to the BASINS project. These
specifications are performed in the BASINS CAT Set-up tutorial in Section 5.0, which must be
run before this tutorial.
BASINS CAT has the ability to represent changes in storm frequency by adding or
removing storms to a historical record. For background on how this feature can be used to
represent climate change scenarios, see Section 3.3.1.1.5.
5-33
-------
This tutorial shows how to make adjustments to represent a change in storm frequency.
The final result of the tutorial is a climate scenario that increases the total volume of precipitation
by a specified percent by adding storms during selected months in the year.
1. To begin creating a new climate scenario, click the Add button. The Modify Existing
Data form will be displayed. This form contains the controls needed to define a record
adjustment, including an identification label, the data set(s) to be modified, and how the
data are to be modified. Begin defining this scenario by entering "Storm Frequency" in
the Modification Name field.
Modify Existing Data
Modification Name:
|< click to specify data to modify>
View
]
View
Compute PET:
How tg Modify; j Multiply Exisfag Value? by 3 Number ~y|
Number to multiply existing data by
Single Change Iterate Changes
Value
|TT
mu(tiplication factor
Everts
I- Vary precipitation only in the following Events
Seasons
P Vary only in selected
Ok
Cancel
W
5-34
-------
2. Since we will be modifying historical precipitation data, begin the selection process by
clicking on the OBSERVED item under the Scenario list. In looking at the Matching
Data list, note that there are two data sets with the Constituent name HPRECIP (hourly
precipitation). The HSPF model used in this example is only applying precipitation from
the Upper Marlboro gage, so click on the data set with UPMARLBR and HPRECIP as
the respective Location and Constituent. (Note: It is possible for more than one data
set to be selected for use in defining a climate scenario.) When this data set has moved to
the Selected Data list, click the Ok button.
[_ Select data to vary
File Attributes Select Help
Select Attribute Values to Filter Avail
Uai3
||Scenario j[J (Location
ICon&ituent * |
| OBSERVED
>1594526
AG WET
PI-DBS'
BELTSVIL
AGW1 3
SCEN
1:101
AGW0
base
LAUREL
AGWS
P101
AiRT
P:102
AIRTMP -rl
Matching Data [27 of 2221)
OBSERVED
01594526
FLOW
-
OBSERVED
¦LAUREL-
••HPREGIR
.{:
|j OBSERVED
| UPMARLBR
HPRECIP
OBSERVED
BELTSVlt
"PET
OBSERVED
BELTSVIL
AIRTMP
OBSERVED
WASH.NAT
CLOUD
OBSERVED
WASH_NAT
WIND
OBSERVED
WASH_NAT
DEWPT
OBSERVED
WASH_NAT
SOLRAD
-
- Selected Data [1 of 2221)
OBSERVED
UPMARLBR
HPRECIP
~ Dates to Include
All Common j
Start 1955/12/31 1955/12/31
End 199QTC8Q1 1990/12(31
|1955/12/31
|1990/12/31
Ok | Cancel
i
5-35
-------
3. The Modify Existing Data form has now been updated with a description of the selected
data set in the Existing Data to Modify box. The Compute PET box is for selecting the
evapotranspiration data set to modify when a temperature climate scenario is being
defined and can be ignored for this example. The How to Modify box contains a list of
methods for modifying the data-set values. For this example, select "Add/Remove Storm
Events." The form will be updated to allow for specification of storm intensity
modifications.
Z_ Modify Existing Data
Modification Name: [Storm Frequency
Existing Data to Modify: |OBSERVED UPMARLBR HPREC1P View
Compute PET: | View
How to Modify: C„ [Add/Remove Storm Events
Percent Change in Volume
Single Change C Iterate Changes
Value fio %
Events
Vary precipitation only in the following Events
Hourly intensity above [o in/for
|i hours
inches
Total duration above |q hours
Allcw gaps up to
Total vol urne above ]o"
Season*
r Vary only in selected
Ok
Cancel
5-36
-------
4. In the Percent Change in Volume frame, leave the Single Change option selected and
enter a value of "10" percent, indicating the percent change in the total water volume for
the entire data set. In the Events frame, checking the Vary precipitation only in the
following Events box causes four fields to be displayed for defining what qualifies as a
storm event. Qualifying events will then be randomly selected and duplicated to meet the
10% increase specified above. (Note: Unchecking the box, Vary precipitation only in
the following Events, results in all precipitation values considered as events qualifying
for duplication.) Values can be entered for any or all of the four elements. Enter "0.1" in
the Hourly intensity above field, indicating that only events with greater than 0.1
inches/hour will be considered storm events.
1 Modify Existing Data
^[njxj
Modification Name: [Storm Frequency
Existing Date to Modify: [OBSERVED UPMARLBR HPREC1P
Compute PET: [..to hours
Total volume above ]o inches
Total duration above |o hours
5-37
-------
5. The Seasons frame near the bottom of the form is used for specifying a time subset of the
data set to which the modification will be applied. Begin defining this subset by clicking
on the Vary only in selected check box. Two additional fields will be displayed. The
first field is a list of time subset options that includes Calendar Years, Months, and
Water Years. The second field will display a list of available time intervals based on the
item selected in the first field. For example, selecting Water Years from the first field
will populate the second field with a list of available water years based on the period of
record of the data set. For this example, select the Months option and the second field
will be populated with the months of the year. Items in the second field can be selected
and unselected by clicking on them. Additionally, the buttons below the list can be used
to select All or None of the items. To represent increased storm frequency during spring
months, select Mar, Apr, and May.
Z Modify Existing Data
-JnJxJ
Modification Name. [Storm Frequency
Existing Data to Modify: [OBSERVED UPMARLBR HPRECIP
Compute PET. Uctick to specrfy PET to replace?
How to Modify: [.Add/Remove Storm Events
i - Percent Change i n Volume
f** Single Change C Iterate Changes
Value pO %
View
View
T3
Events
W Vary precipitation only in the following Events
Hourly i ntens ity above fli in/hr
Allow gaps up to fo hours
Total volume above [c inches
Total duration atscy.e |i hours
F Vary only in selected
Ok
Cancel
A
5-38
-------
6. Click the Ok button at the bottom of the form. This scenari o, as summarized on the main
BASINS CAT form, will Add storms during Mar, Apr, and May until a 10% increase in
the data set's original volume has been achieved.
Climate Assessment Tool
Fife Edit Options Help
Climate Data | Assessment Endpoints | Resiits Table | Pivot Table |
Base Scenario | C: \B AS IN S \Data\Clinnate\ba$e. uci
New Scenario (Modified
MB
Add
Remove|
Edit
View j
Prepared
~ Increase Precsp Multiply 1,2
0 Seasonal Precip Multiply 1.2 Month: JunJul Aug
>3 Partial Precip M uB^ply 0.8 Water Year: 1986
0 Storm Intemihi Inlmnsiliii.lXl
^ Storm Frequency AddEvents 10 Month. Mat Apr Mai'.'.:
Start
T ota! itesatiorts selected = 1 (GO0)
7. After defining this scenario, the user can use the View button to see the values in the
modified data sets. Users may also want to save the state of BASINS CAT using the
FilerSave Climate and Endpoints menu option.
5.1.2. Modify Historical Air Temperature Records and Regenerate Evapotranspiration
Record
The tutorials in this section demonstrate the following adjustments to air temperature
records.
Applying a change to the entire air temperature record and regenerating PET.
Applying a seasonal change and regenerating PET.
Applying a change to a portion of the temperature record and regenerating PET.
5-39
-------
The BASINS CAT Set-up tutorial in Section 5 must be ran before beginning these
tutorials. This is necessary to ensure that the Climate Assessment Tool form is properly
initialized.
5.1.2.1. Add or Subtract a Constant to Full Record and Regenerate Evapotranspiration
To begin this tutorial, the Climate Assessment Tool form should be displayed with the
"\Basins\Data\Climate\base.uci" file as the Base Scenario, "Modified" as the New Scenario, and
the "\Basins\Data\Climate\base.wdm" file added to the BASINS project. These specifications
are performed in the BASINS CAT Set-up tutorial in Section 5.0, which must be run before this
tutorial.
The simplest method of modifying air temperature is to apply a multiplier to historical
values over the entire span, or full record, of the model run. Potential evapotranspiration (PET)
data are then regenerated using the modified temperature values. For background on how this
feature can be used to represent climate change scenarios, see Section 3.3.1.2.1.
This tutorial shows how a single change can be applied to an entire historical air
temperature data record and how PET data are regenerated from the modified data. The final
result of the tutorial is a record adjustment that applies a uniform increase to historical air
temperature. PET data will be regenerated, based on the adjusted air temperature record, for use
as model input.
5-40
-------
1. To begin creating a new record adjustment, click the Add button. The Modify Existing
Data form will be displayed. This form contains the controls needed to define a record
adjustment, including an identification label, the data set(s) to be modified, and how the
data are to be modified. The Modification Name field is used to provide a text label for
identifying the scenario being created. Begin defining this scenario by entering
"Temperature" in the Modification Name field.
Modify Existing! Data
~azI
M edification Name: C... Jt empetetuie
j
View |
|
-------
2. To select the air temperature data to modify, click in the Existing Data to Modify box.
The Select data to vary form will open. In the top third of this form, titled Select
Attribute Values to Filter Available Data, the user can filter the type of data to select
by Scenario, Location, or Constituent. The data matching these selections will appear in
the middle third of the form, titled Matching Data. Data sets can then be selected from
the Matching Data list, which will add them to the Selected Data list in the lower third
of the form. Clicking on a selected data set in either the Matching Data or Selected
Data lists will unselect it. If all data sets in the Matching Data list are desired, it is not
necessary to add each one to the Selected Data list.
Z Select data to vary
-|P|X|
File Attributes Select Help
Select Attribute values to F titer Available Data
| Scenario
1 Location
| [Constituent
3
—^
OBSERVED
01594526
*| AGWET
FT-OBS
BELTSV1L
] AGWI
_~
SCEN
1:101
AGWO
base
LAUREL
AGWS
P101
AIRT
P102
U AIRTMP
d
Matching Data [2221 of 2221) }
OBSERVED
01594526
FLOW
*J
OBSERVED
LAUREL
HPRECIR
_J
OBSERVED
UPMARLBR
HPRECIP
OBSERVED
BELT5ML
PET
OBSERVED
BEITSVIL
AIRTMP
OBSERVED
WASH_NAT
CLOUD
OBSERVED
WASHJiAT
WIND
OBSERVED
WASHJIAT
OEWPT
OBSERVED
WASHJIAT
SQLRAD
*
Selected Data (D of 2221]
Dates to Include
Ssart
End
MHTte
iwe
1980/01/01
1990/12/31
Ok
Cancel
5-42
-------
3. Begin the selection process by looking at the first column, labeled Scenario, in the Select
Attribute Values to Filter Available Data frame. Click on the OBSERVED item, and
all data sets with a Scenario attribute of OBSERVED will be added to the Matching
Data list. In looking at the last column of the Matching Data list, note the data set with
the Constituent name AIRTMP (air temperature). Click on this data set and it will be
added to the Selected Data list. Click the Ok button to close the form.
\Z Select data to vary
-IDIXI
Fife Attributes Select Help
_ , .. . - r--§* * -ill r".
select MMiDute values 10 rmer Avanaoie uata
|Scenario »
| Location _»J
[Constituent
j OBSERVED
D1534526 jj
AGWET * j
PT-OBS
BELTSVIL
AGVJl H
SCEN
1:101
AGVO
base
LAUREL
AGIWS
P:1Q1
A1RT
P:10C
AIRTMP
A
Matching Data (27 of 2221)
OBSERVED
0159452S
FLOW
*
OBSERVED
LAUREL
H PR EC IP
OBSERVED
UPMARLBR
HPRECIP
OBSERVED
•BELTSVIL
PET
n
jj OBSERVED
BELTSVIL
AIRTMP
OBSERVED
WASHiNAT
CLOUD'
OBSERVED
WASH_NAT
WIND
OBSERVED
WASH_NAT
DBflFT
OBSERVED
WASH_NAT
SOLRAD
J-l
C^l - riai-a f«| -f , 1
^eiecEea [« cm £4,4,1)
OBSERVED
BELTSVIL
AIRTMP
Dates to Include
All [ Common |
Start 1SSW1A)1 1980/flim
19BD/01/Q1 |
End 1990/12/31 1990/1231
11990/12/31
Ok
Carjcet
5-43
-------
4. The Modify Existing Data form has now been updated with a description of the selected
data set in the Existing Data to Modify box. When modifying temperature, it is
necessary to also re-compute the potential evapotranspiration (PET) using the modified
temperature data. Click in the Compute PET box to specify which PET data to
re-compute.
Modify Existing Data
-J.QJ xj
Modification Name: jTemperature
Existing: Data to Modify Cj?B SERVED BELTSVIL AIRTMP View
Compute PET: |
-------
5. In the Select data to vary form, again click on the OBSERVED item in the Scenario
column, and then click the OBSERVED BELTSVIL PET data set from the Matching
Data list. Click the Ok button to close the Select data to vary form.
Select PET to replace with values computed!
File Attributes Seiert Help
Select Attribute Yal;ues to Filter Availab!e Data
| Scenario T |
[Lce^ioo t |
JCrasMueftt ~ ]
¦OBSERVED
.S153452S _*l
AGWET jA
FT-0'65
BELTSVIL
AGW1 H
SCEN
1101
AGWO
base
LAUREL
AGWS
P 101
AIRT
F 102
AJRTMP
Matching Data (27 of2221)
OBSERVED
01594526
FLOW
OBSERVED
LAUREL
HPRECIP
OBSERVED
UPMARLBR
••HPRECie
OBSERVED
BELTSVIL
PET H|
OBSERVED
BEtTSVlt
"AIRTOP
OBSERVED
WASH_NAT
CLOUD
OBSERVED
WASH_NAT
WIND
OBSERVED
WASH_MAT
DEVJPT
OBSERVED
WASH.MAT
SOLRAO L
Cj. I' ™_n It -.J ¦'
h3€i &€<£&€! 1, 1 01 t J
OBSERVED
BELTSVIL
PET
Dates to Include
Al l I Common |
Start 197201/01
End 199&'12/31
1972/01/01
199QH2/31
1372/01/01
|1990/12/31
5-45
-------
6. The Modify Existing Data form has been updated with a description of the selected data
set in the Compute PET box. The How to Modify box contains a list of methods for
modifying the data-set values. For this example, select the "Change Temperature"
option. In the Degrees to add to each existing temperature value frame, there are two
modification options: Single Change or Iterate Changes. The term "iterate", as used
here, refers to the automation of multiple runs. The Single Change option will result in
one adjustment applied to the temperature data set. The Iterate Changes option will
result in a series of adjustments to the temperature data set and is used to create synthetic
climate change scenarios as described in Section 3.3.1.5. Use of this option is shown in
the tutorial found in Section 5.1.5. For this example, we will use the Single Change
option. In the Value field, enter "2," thus defining the amount to be added to all values
in the temperature data set. Click the Ok button to complete the scenario definition
process.
Modify Existing Data
^JoJj
-------
7. The Climate Assessment Tool form is now updated to show the newly defined climate
scenario.
Climate Assessment Tool
File Edit Options Help
Climate Data | Assessment Endposits ] Results Table 1 Pivot Tabfe ]
BaseS cenario | C AS ASIN S VDataSOirnaleVbase. uci
NewSceraiio | Modified
MB
Add
Remove
~T3
UJ
View
Prepared
3 Increase Precip Multiple 1 ?
yj Seasonal Peecip Multiply 1.2Mortih: Jui Jul Aug
y] Partial Precip Multiply 0.8 Water Year: 1986
yi Storm Intensfty Intensify 10
yl..S.tatm.Fiaquency.AddEvents 10 Month; Mar Apr May
yj Temperature Add 2
Start
T o
-------
This tutorial shows how a change can be applied to a historical air temperature data
record for only a specified season of the year, and how PET data are regenerated from the
modified data. The final result of the tutorial is an air temperature time series with two different
record adjustments, one for cool months, and one for warm months. PET data will be
regenerated, based on the adjusted air temperature records, for use as model input.
5-48
-------
1. To begin creating the temperature adjustment for cool months, click the Add button and
the Modify Existing Data form will be displayed. This form contains the controls
needed to define a record adjustment, including an identification label, the data set(s) to
be modified, and how the data are to be modified. The Modification Name field is used
to provide a text label for identifying the scenario being created. Begin defining this
scenario by entering "Temp Cool Season" in the Modification Name field.
I Modify Existing Data
Modification N am; j Temp Cool Season
Existing Data to Modify; |
-------
2. To select the air temperature data to modify, click in the Existing Data to Modify box
and the Select data to vary form will be displayed. A detailed description of this form is
found in steps 2 and 3 of the tutorial in Section 5.1.2.1. In the first column, under the
Scenario label, click on the OBSERVED item and all data sets with a Scenario attribute
of OBSERVED will be added to the Matching Data list. Look at the last column of the
Matching Data list, and note the data set with the Constituent name AIRTMP (air
temperature). Click on this data set and it will be added to the Selected Data list. Click
the Ok button to close the form.
Select data to vary
File Attributes Select Help
'Select Attribute Values to Filter Available Date
jSoenanfi "^j | Location
OBSERVED
PT-OSS
SCEN
base
Matching Data (27 of 2221)
I...3159452S
BELTSVll
1:101
LAUREL
P:TQl
P:1Q2
* I |Constituent
j^j AGWET
J AGW
AG WO
AGWS
AIRT
AIRTMP
- ~ x
z!
zi
OBSERVED
01594526
FLOW
OBSERVED
LAUREL
HPRECIP
OBSERVED
UPMARLBR
HPRECIP
OBSERVED —J
BELTSWt
jOBSERVED
BELTSVIL
|airtmf
OBSERVED
¦WASHlWAT
CLOUD
OBSERVED
WASHJiAT
WIND
OBSERVED
WASH_NAT
DEVJFT
OBSERVED
WASH_NAT
SOLRAD
•
Selected Data (1 of 2221)
OBSERVED
BELTSV1L
AIRTMP
Dates to Include
Ail 1 Common
Start 1980/01/01 1MGD1/01
End 1990/12/31 199QH2/31
1930/01/01
1990/12/31
Ok
Cancel
5-50
-------
3. The Modify Existing Data form has now been updated with a description of the selected
data set in the Existing Data to Modify box. When modifying temperature, it is
necessary to also re-compute the potential evapotranspiration (PET) using the modified
temperature data. Click in the Compute PET box to specify which PET data to
re-compute.
Modify Existing Data
_ I~ I x|
Modification Name: | Partial Temp
Existing Dais to floSifyiJOBSERVED BELT5VIL AIRTMP
Compute PET:
How to Modify:
View
| View
|r4iltipty Ewstsng Values by a Number T |
Number to multiply existing date by
(* Single Change ( ' Iterate Changes
Value ] 1.1 mufti plication faclor
_ Events
r Vary precipitetion only in the following Events
Seasons
r Vary only i n sel ected
Ofc
Carved
5-51
-------
4. In the Select data to vary form, again click on the OBSERVED item in the Scenario
column, and then click the OBSERVED BELTSVIL PET data set from the Matching
Data list. Click the Ok button to close the Select data to vary form.
Select PET to replace with values computed from
File Attributes Select Help
Select Attribute Values to Filter Available Data
Scenario
~3\ Location
T j [Constituent
-inl xl
"3
(observed
01594526
_^| AGY/ET
pises'
EELTSVtL
1 AGVJI
SCEN
1:101
agwo
base
LAUREL
AGV/S
P:T01
AJRT
P:102
A1RTMP
Matching Data (27 of 2221)
OBSERVED
01594526
FLOW
OBSERVED
LAUREL
HPRECIP
OBSERVED.
¦tlPMARLBft
HPREGIR
BELTSVIL |PET
P
OBSERVED
"BELTSVIL;
AJRW
OBSERVED
WASHNAT
CLOUD
OBSERVED
WASH_NAT
WIND
OBSERVED
WA5H_NAT
DEWPT
OBSERVED
WASH_NAT
SOLRAD
-
Selected Data (1 of 2221J
OBSERVED
BELTSVIL
Dates to Include
All Common |
PET
Start 1972101/01
End 1990/12131
1972/01/01
1900/12/31
1972/01/01
11990/12/31
Ok
Cancel
5-52
-------
5. The Modify Existing Data form has been updated with a description of the selected data
set in the Compute PET box. The How to Modify box contains a list of methods for
modifying the data-set values. For this example, the "Change Temperature" option will
be used. A detailed description of the Degrees to add to each existing temperature
value frame is found in the tutorial in Section 5.1.2.1. For this example, we will use the
Single Change option. In the Value field, enter "2," which will be the temperature
increase applied to the air temperature values in the season defined in the next step.
Z. Modify Existing Data
JojxJ
Modification Nanrve: jTemp Cool Season
Existing Data to Modify: [OBSERVED BELTSVIL AIRTMP
Compute PET: [OBSERVED BELTSVIL PET
How to Modify v. IChange Temperature |
Degrees to add to each existing temperature value
(* Single Change Iterate Changes
Value ( [i degrees
Events
View
View
I- Vary precipitation only in the following Events
Ok
Cancel
A
5-53
-------
6. The Seasons frame near the bottom of the form is used for specifying a time subset of the
data set to which the modification will be applied. Begin defining this subset by clicking
on the Vary only in selected check box and two additional fields will be displayed. The
first field is a list of time subset options that includes Calendar Years, Months, and
Water Years. The second field will display a list of available time intervals based on the
item selected in the first field. For example, selecting Water Years from the first field
will populate the second field with a list of available water years based on the period of
record of the data set. For this example, select the Months option and the second field
will be populated with the months of the year. Items in the second field can be selected
and unselected by clicking on them. Additionally, the buttons below the list can be used
to select All or None of the items. To apply the 2-degree increase to cooler months,
select Nov through Apr.
Modify Existing Data
- ~ x
Modification Name: [Temp Cool Season
Existing Data to Modify (OBSERVED BELTSV1L AIRTMP
Compute PET: [OBSERVED BELTSV1L PET
How to Modify: |Change Temperature
Degrees to add to each existing temperature value
(• Single Change Iterate Changes
Value 12 degrees
View |
View |
"3
Seasons
[~ Vary only in selected Month
"3
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oet
All
None
Ok
Cancel
5-54
-------
7. Click the Ok button to complete defining the cooler month's temperature adjustment.
The newly defined adjustment will be shown on the Climate Assessment Tool form. To
begin defining the warm month's air temperature adjustment, click the Add button again.
Climate Assessment Tool
Fie Edit Options Help
~innate Date ] Assessment Endpoints | Results Table | Pivot Table |
Base Scenario |C:\BASINS\DataSCIimate\ba$e.uci
Mew Scenario (Modified
~ma
Add
Remove
Edit
View j
Prepared
yj Increase Precip Multiply 1,2
yj Seasonal Rrecip Multiply 1.2 Month: Jim Jul Aug
y] Partial Precip Multiply 0.6 Water Year: 1906
3 Storm Intensity Intensify 10
y] Storm Frequency AddEvents 10 Month. Mai Apr May
ijjjjUDeropgMtuie Add'2 " " " -•••»-,
yj lempCool Season Add 2 Month; Jan Feb Mar Apr Nov Dec '
Start
Total iterations selected! = 1 (0:08)
5-55
-------
8. From the Modify Existing Data form, enter "Temp Warm Season" in the Modification
Name field. Next, repeat steps 2 through 4 to select the same air temperature and PET
data sets as before. For the warm month's adjustment, we will apply a 4-degree increase
to the historical data. Select Change Temperature from the How to Modify list and
then enter "4" in the Value field. In the Seasons frame, again select Months from the
first list and then select May through Oct.
Modify Existing Data
Modification Name: ;:-...|T«mp Warm Season
Existing Data to Modify [OBSERVED BELTSVll AIRTMP
-¦ J View |
kw«.v.v.v.v.v.v.v.v,v.' 1
How to Modify: J Change Temperature
r Degrees lo add to each existing temperature value
Single Change f Iterate Changes
>3
Value
_5degrees
Events
r Vary precipitation only in the following Events
5-56
-------
9. Click the Ok button to complete defining the warm month's temperature adjustment.
The newly defined adjustment will be shown on the Climate Assessment Tool form.
Climate Assessment Tool
Fie Edit Options Help
Climate Data j Assessment Endpoints J Results Table) Pivot Tabte]
GaseS cenario | CAS ASIN 5 \Data\Climate\base. ua
~njxJ
N e w S cenario | Modified
Add
Remove |
Edit
View j
Prepared
yj Increase Precip Multiply 1.2
SI Seasonal Piecip Multiply 1,2 M omit: Jim Jul Aug
yj Partial Precip Multiply 0.8 Water Year: 1986
yj Storm Intensity Intensify 10
v! Storm Frequency AddE vents 10 Month: Mai Apr May
yj Temperature Add 2
yj X.mpCooi8«4Mn A(id-2-Mor^ JmFeb M« Apt.Noy.Pec
yj Temp Warm Season Add 4 Month: Ma^ JunJul Aug Sep Cl„ci'.':
Start
T otai iteiations selected -1 (0:08)
10. To complete this tutorial, save the state of CAT, using the File:Save Climate and
Endpoints menu option, if desired.
5.1.2.3. Add or Subtract a Constant to a Partial Record and Regenerate
Evapotranspiration
To begin this tutorial, the Climate Assessment Tool form should be displayed with the
"\Basins\Data\Climate\base.uci" file as the Base Scenario, "Modified" as the New Scenario, and
the "\Basins\Data\Climate\base.wdm" file added to the BASINS project. These specifications
are performed in the BASINS CAT Set-up tutorial in Section 5.0, which must be run before this
tutorial.
A common climate scenario need is to adjust historical values during only a particular set
of years, or partial record, of the model run. For example, assessing the impacts of increased
drought severity can include increasing the air temperature values, and re-computing PET values,
for a specified year or years within the record. For background on how this feature can be used
to represent climate change scenarios, see Section 3.3.1.2.3.
5-57
-------
This tutorial shows how a single change can be applied to a historical air temperature
data record for a specified portion of the model run, and how PET data are regenerated from the
modified data. The final result of the tutorial, in this example, is a record adjustment that
increases historical air temperature data for only a single year. PET data are also regenerated
based on the adjusted air temperature record for use as model input.
5-58
-------
1. To begin creating a new climate scenario, click the Add button. The Modify Existing
Data form will be displayed. This form contains the controls needed to define a record
adjustment, including an identification label, the data set(s) to be modified, and how the
data are to be modified. The Modification Name field is used to provide a text label for
identifying the scenario being created. Begin defining this scenario by entering "Partial
Temp" in the Modification Name field.
E
Modify Existing Data
Modification Name; |Partial Temp
?
Existing Date to Modify; |
View
Compute PET: |
View
How to Modify: |Multiply Existing Values by a N umber
~3
Number to multiply existing data by
v Single Change derate Changes
Value J 1.1 multiplication factor
t vents -
r~ Vary precipitation only in the following Events
Seasons
V Vary oriy in selected
Ok
Cancel
L
5-59
-------
2. To select the air temperature data to modify, click in the Existing Data to Modify box.
The Select data to vary form will be displayed. A detailed description of this form is
found in steps 2 and 3 of the tutorial in Section 5.1.2.1. In the first column, under the
Scenario label, click on the OBSERVED item and all data sets with a Scenario attribute
of OBSERVED will be added to the Matching Data list. Look at the last column of the
Matching Data list, and note the data set with the Constituent name AIRTMP (air
temperature). Click on this data set and it will be added to the Selected Data list. Click
the Ok button to close the form.
Select data to vary
^InJxJ
File Attributes Select Help
Select Attribute Values to Filter Available Data
Scenario 1 J Location
OBSERVED
PT-OBS
SCEN
base
Matching Data (27 of 22211
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED1
OBSERVED -
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
OBSERVED
534526
BELTSV1L
1:101
LAUREL
R101
P. 102
01594526
LAUREL
UPMARLBR
¦•BELTSWt-
BELTSVIL
"v'/ASFfl'N'AT"
WASH_NAT
WASH_NAT
WASH NAT
n^ituent
d AG WET
AGWI
AG WO
AGVIS
A1RT
AIRTMP
FLOW
HPRECIP
HPRECIP
•PET
IB
'"CIOUD
WIND
DEVYPT
SOLRAD
Selected Data (1 of 2221)
OBSERVED
BELTSVIL
AIRTMP
5-60
-------
3. The Modify Existing Data form has now been updated with a description of the selected
data set in the Existing Data to Modify box. When modifying temperature, it is
necessary to also re-compute the potential evapotranspiration (PET) using the modified
temperature data. Click in the Compute PET box to specify which PET data to
re-compute.
Modify Existing Data
-JSlxJ
Modification Name; | Partial Temp
Existing Data to Modify'... JOB SERVED BELTS VIL AIRTMP View
Compute PET | cdiek to specify PET to replace > View
How to Modify; [Multiply Basting Values by a Number -»• |
Number to multiply existing data by
(* Single Change C Iterate Changes
Value |1.1 mdtiplication factor
" Events
I- Vary precipitation only in the following Events
5-61
-------
4. In the Select data to vary form, again click on the OBSERVED item in the Scenario
column, and then click the OBSERVED BELTSVIL PET data set from the Matching
Data list. Click the Ok button to close the Select data to vary form.
Select PET to replace with values computed
liAliillllV!
-iDlxll
File Attributes Select Help
c-i.-i a*»lIkLu
wW Wet nlU 1LAJIC VCIUCS tW fHWI MVOHflUHC
| Scenario jJ
| Location
| Constituent
m\
gOBSERVED
015S452S
AGWET 4\
PT'O'BS
BELTSVIL
agwi
i
SCEN
1:101
AG WO
base
LAUREL
AGWS
P.101
A1RT
P. 102
H
AIRTMP
H
Matching Dsts (27 of 2221)
OBSERVED
01594526
FLOW
_
OBSERVED
LAUREL
HFRECIP
OBSERVED
¦UFMARIBR
•WFRiCIP.
j OBSERVED
BELTSVIL
PET
—<
OBSERVED
'BEtTStflt
"AIRTMP
OBSERVED
V/ASH_NAT
CLOUD
OBSERVED
WASH_NAT
WIND
OBSERVED
WASH_NAT
DEWFT
OBSERVED
WASH_NAT
SOLRAD
J
O II i I n i fmn
besected Data (l oi ///I)
OBSERVED
BELTSVIL
PET
Dates to Include
All Common j
Start 1372/01/01 1972/01/01
197&W01
End 1990/12/31 1990/12/31
11990/12/31
Ok
Cancel
1
5-62
-------
5. The Modify Existing Data form has been updated with a description of the selected data
set in the Compute PET box. The How to Modify box contains a list of methods for
modifying the data-set values. For this example, the "Change Temperature" option will
be used. A detailed description of the Degrees to add to each existing temperature
value frame is found in the tutorial under Section 5.1.2.1. For this example, we will use
the Single Change option. In the Value field, enter "3," which will be the temperature
increase applied to the air temperature values in the year specified in the next step.
Modify Existing Data
Modification Name [Partial Temp
Existing Data to Modify: [OBSERVED BELT5V1L AIRTMP
Compute PET: |OBSERVED BELTSVIL PET
How to Modify: ¦-...Jcfaange Temperature
View
Degrees to add to each existing temperature value
f* Single Change Q Iterate Changes
Value (J3 ..degrees
View
3
Events
F~ Vary precipitation only in the following Events
Seasons
F Vary only in selected
Oh
Caned
A
5-63
-------
6. The Seasons frame near the bottom of the form is used for specifying a time subset of the
data set to which the modification will be applied. Begin defining this subset by clicking
on the Vary only in selected check box. Two additional fields will be displayed. The
first field is a list of time subset options that includes Calendar Years, Months, and
Water Years. The second field will display a list of available time intervals based on the
item selected in the first field. For example, selecting Water Years from the first field
will populate the second field with a list of available water years based on the period of
record of the data set. Items in the second field can be selected and unselected by
clicking on them. Additionally, the buttons below the list can be used to select All or
None of the items. The sample HSPF model used here is run for water years 1986
through 1988, with 1986 being the driest. Thus, to help assess the impact of drought,
select the Water Years option and then select 1986 from the list of available water years.
_ Modify Existing Data
-<~1x1
Modification Name; ]Partial Temp
Existing Data to Modify: [OBSERVED BELTSVIL AIRTMP
Compute PET: |OBSERVED BELTSVIL PET
How to Modify: [Change Temperature
Degrees to add to each existing temperature value
(•* Single Change C Iterate Changes
Value [3 degrees
View
View
- Events
I- Vary precipitation only in the following Events
§ftS'ionf
"P Vary only in selected
Water Years
1980
1985
1931
¦ 19S6
1932
1987
1983
19SS
1984
1989
1930
11991
All
None
Ok
Cancel
4
5-64
-------
7. Click the Ok button to complete the scenario definition process. The Climate
Assessment Tool form is now updated to show the newly defined climate scenario.
Climate Assessment T ool
File Edit Options Help
Climate Data | Assessment Endpwits ] Results Table 1 Pi vol T able ]
Base Scenario |C:\BASINS\Data\Qimaie\base.uci
New Scenario |Modified
Add
Remove
Edit
View Prepared
_J J
3 Increase Precip Multiply 1.2
y] Seasonal Piecip Multiply 1.2 Monlh; Jim Jul Aug
y Partial1 Prectp Multiply 0.8 Waiter Year: 198S
¦53 Storm Intensity Intensify 10
yj Storm Frequency AddE vents 10 Month: Mai Apr May
3 Temperature Add 2
@ Temp Cool Season Add 2 Month: Jan Feb Mar Apt Nov Dee
yLls.mp..WarmSj^son.Md..4..W.o.nth: May JunJul Aug Sep Oct
Partial Temp Add 3 Water Year: 1966
Start
T otal iterations selected = 1 (QtOB)
8. To complete this tutorial, save the state of CAT, using the File:Save Climate and
Endpoints menu option, if desired.
5.1.3. Combine Multiple Changes to Create a Climate Change Scenario
This tutorial illustrates how multiple record adjustments to historical temperature and
precipitation data, or scenario components, are combined in a cumulative way to create climate
change scenarios. Running this tutorial requires that one or more record adjustments have
already been made, such as those illustrated in the previous tutorials (Sections 5.1.1.1 through
5.1.2.3). This tutorial can also be performed using record adjustments other than those shown
here.
This tutorial creates two climate change scenarios. The first applies temperature and
precipitation changes to each year in the record to create a long-term change scenario. The
second applies decreasing precipitation and increasing temperature for a single, selected year to
create a scenario representing an increased drought severity.
5-65
-------
1. The Climate Assessment Tool form displays the previously defined record adjustments
in a list on the Climate Data tab. Each adjustment has a check box for indicating
whether or not it is to be included as a component of the climate scenario being
developed. The order of adjustments can be controlled by selecting an adjustment and
using the up and down arrow buttons above the list. This is particularly important when
multiple adjustments are being made to the same values in an input data set (e.g.,
increasing an entire precipitation record and also increasing a season's storm intensity).
In such a case, the first (i.e., highest in the list) adjustment would be applied to the
original record. Ensuing adjustments would then be applied to the record resulting from
the previous adjustment in a cumulative way.
2. Begin defining the first climate scenario by selecting the following record adjustments
(placing a check in the appropriate checkboxes):
• Increase Precip Multiply 1.2
• Temperature Add 2
All other record adjustments should be inactive (not checked). This combination of
adjustments represents a climate scenario that is available for input to the model. (Note:
This scenario will not be run here as this tutorial is only demonstrating how climate
change scenarios are defined).
Climate Assessment Too!
File Edit Options Hefc)
Climate Data | Assessment Endpoirits ] Results Table | Pivot Table |
Base Scenaiio |C ABAS INS \D aia\0mate\base-uci
New Scenaiio [Modiied
ma
Add
Remove
Edit
Vtew [ Prepared |
I nciease Precip M u*iply 1.2
~ Season^Pfeap'MulKpTyT.2 Month: Jur» Jul Aug
~ Partial Piecip Multiply Q,S Water Year: 1386
~ Staim Intensity Intensify 10
[ J Mar Apr May
T emperature Add 2
~ Temp UoSrS'easMA'd'd'TMonth: Jan Feb Mai Apr Nov Dec
~ Temp Warm Season Add 4 Month: May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
~ Partial Temp Add 3WatefYeai; 198C
~ Synthetic T emp Add from 0 to 3 step 1
~ Synthetic Precip Multiply ffomi to 1.3 step 0.1
Stait T otal iterations selected = 1 (0:08)
5-66
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Define the second climate change scenario by selecting the following record adjustments:
• Partial Precip Multiply 0.8 Water Year: 1986
• Partial Temp Add 3 Water Year: 1986
All other record adjustments should be inactive (not checked). This combination of
adjustments represents a climate scenario for assessing an increased severity of drought
in a single year during a model run.
** Climate Assessment Tool
Fife Edit Options He!p
Climate Data | Assessment Endpcwmts ] Results Table ] Pivot Iable j
Base Scenario | C: \BAS INS \Data\Cimate\base, uci
- °'*i
New Scenario |Modified
Add j Remove [ Edit j View | Prepared
[ j Increase Precip Multiply 1.2
Precip Multiply 1
jq Paitial Precip Multiply 0.8 Water Year: 1986.
~ Storm intensity intensify 10
0 Storm Frequency AddE vents 10 Month: Mar Apr May
~ Temperature Add 2
~ Temp Cool Season Add 2 Month: Jan Feb Mar Apt Nov Dec
1 J„I.femp..Wam-S6asafl--A4d4..Mmtb:.M,ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
•v..|
Partial Temp Add 3 Water Year: 138G
[J Synthetic T emp Add from 0 to 3 step 1
~ Synthelic Precip Multiply from 1 to 1.3 step 0,1
Stall Totafl iteraJions selected ¦ 1 (0:08)
At the bottom of the BASINS CAT form, a label indicates the number of model runs (or
Total iterations) that will be performed. For each climate scenario shown here, only one
model run will be made. When a synthetic climate scenario is used (see the tutorial in
Section 5.1.5), a series of model runs is made, one for each adjustment, or iteration, of the
synthetic scenario. If multiple synthetic scenarios are used, a model run is made for each
unique combination of adjustments defined by the scenarios. For example, a synthetic
temperature scenario with 4 iterations combined with a synthetic precipitation scenario
with 3 iterations would result in 12 model runs.
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5.1.4. Creating Spatially Variable Climate Change Scenarios at Multiple Locations
Most HSPF models receive meteorological input from multiple locations, typically
NCDC weather stations, within a watershed. Running an assessment using BASINS CAT thus
requires that change scenarios be created for meteorological data for multiple locations within a
watershed. BASINS CAT provides the option to apply specified adjustment(s) to multiple
meteorological data sets simultaneously, e.g., temperature time series data from multiple weather
stations (see Tutorial 5.1.1.1).
BASINS CAT can also be used to create spatially variable climate change scenarios for
different locations within a watershed by individually selecting and adjusting historical
temperature and precipitation time series data sets from each location.
To individually adjust time series data from multiple locations (NCDC weather stations),
each data set must be selected and adjusted as a separate step. After specifying adjustments to
each data set, the BASINS CAT interface will list each adjustment preceded by a checkbox. By
selecting and unselecting the appropriate checkboxes, users can create and run spatially variable
precipitation and air temperature change scenarios for each weather station used in an HSPF
simulation.
5.1.5. Create Synthetic Climate Change Scenarios
To begin this tutorial, the Climate Assessment Tool form should be displayed with the
"\Basins\Data\Climate\base.uci" file as the Base Scenario, "Modified" as the New Scenario,
and the "\Basins\Data\Climate\base.wdm" file added to the BASINS project. These
specifications are performed in the BASINS CAT Set-up tutorial in Section 5.0, which must be
run before this tutorial.
BASINS CAT can be used to automate the creation of multiple synthetic climate change
scenarios by applying a series of record adjustments within a user-specified range to historical
data. For background on how this feature can be used to represent climate change scenarios, see
Section 3.3.1.5.
This tutorial shows how a series of adjustments can be applied to the full, historical data
set to create synthetic climate change scenarios. The final result of the tutorial is two synthetic
scenarios, one that incrementally increases temperature values, and one that incrementally
increases precipitation values.
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1. To begin creating the synthetic temperature scenario, click the Add button. The Modify
Existing Data form will open. This form contains the controls needed to define a record
adjustment, including an identification label, the data set(s) to be modified, and how the
data are to be modified. The Modification Name field is used to provide a text label for
identifying the scenario being created. Begin defining this scenario by entering
"Synthetic Temp" in the Modification Name field.
Modify Existing Data
CqE]
Modification Name; v.. J Synthetic Temp
View
Existmg D ata to M odily: |
-------
2. To select the air temperature data to modify, click in the Existing Data to Modify box.
The Select data to vary form will be displayed. A detailed description of this form is
found in steps 2 and 3 of the tutorial under Section 5.1.2.1. In the first column, under the
Scenario label, click on the OBSERVED item and all data sets with a Scenario attribute
of OBSERVED will be added to the Matching Data list. In looking at the last column of
the Matching Data list, note the data set with the Constituent name AIRTMP (air
temperature). Click on this data set and it will be added to the Selected Data list. Click
the Ok button to close the form.
L_ Select data to vary
File Attributes Select Help
Select Attribute Values to Fitter Available Dala
|| Scenario | | Location »|
| Constituent » ]
(observed
01594526
1
AG WET
d
ft-o'bS'
BELTSVIL
AGWI 1
SCEN
1:101
AG WO
base
LAUREL
AGWS
P101
AJRT
P:102
, I AIRTMP „|
Matching Data (2? of £221)
OBSERVED
01534526
FLOW
*
OBSERVED
LAUREL
HPRECIP
OBSERVED
UPMARL6R
HPRECIP
OBSERVED —
BELTSVIL — - -
-Pfc-I
(observed
BELTSVIL
AIRTMP
OBSERVED
WASH1NAT
CLOUD
OBSERVED
WASH_NAT
WIND
OBSERVED
WASH.NAT
DEWFT
OBSERVED
WASHJJAT
SOLRAD
r\_i_ /i
pate I 1 oq t.4,4. 1 1
OBSERVED
BELTSVIL
AIRTMP
Daies to Include
All | Common |
Start 1930/01/01 1930/01/01
Ewi 1990/1231 1990/1231
j1980/01/01
11990/12/31
Ok J Cancel
i i
i
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3. The Modify Existing Data form has now been updated with a description of the selected
data set in the Existing Data to Modify box. When modifying temperature, it is
necessary to also re-compute the potential evapotranspiration (PET) using the modified
temperature data. Click in the Compute PET box to specify which PET data to
re-compute.
Z Modify Existing Data
-Nx|
Modification Name: |$ynthenc Temp
Existing Data to Modify;.(OBSERVED BELTSVIL AtRTMP J j|
View |
Compute PET: tcfck to spedhy PET to replace >
View |
How to Modify:
| Multiply Easing Values by a Number t |
Number to multiply existing data by
(* Single Change ^ Iterate Changes
Value
[IT
multiplication factor
Events
P Vary precipitation only in the following Events
Seasons
r Vary only in selected
Ok
Cartel
£
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4. In the Select data to vary form, again click on the OBSERVED item in the Scenario
column, and then click the OBSERVED BELTSVIL PET data set from the Matching
Data list. Click the Ok button to close the Select data to vary form.
IfL Select PET to replace with values computed
-Idlxl
File Attributes Select Help
[Scenario
* [ (location
* | | Constituent
-=i
| OBSERVED
|j).f'59452fi
4
AG WET j*J
FT-OBS
BELTSVIL
1
AGWI j
SCEN
1:101
AGWO
base
LAUREL
AGWS
P: 101
AIRT
P:102
-1
AIRTMP
zi
Matching Dala (27 of 2221?
OBSERVED
01594526
FLOW
-
OBSERVED
LAUREL
HPRECIP
OBSERVED
yPMARtSR-
•HPREG1P
j OBSERVED
| BELTSVIL
PET
m
OBSERVED
BEtTSm
'flIRTHF
OBSERVED
WASH.MAT
CLOUD
OBSERVED
WASH_NAT
WIND
OBSERVED
WASHJMT
DEWFT
OBSERVED
WASHJ1AT
SOLRAD
A\
3€il|£'Gt&d U3i3 I, I CT ££& ' J
OBSERVED
BELTSVIL
PET
Dates to include
All CofTTor
1
Stan 197201/01 1972^01^01
1972/01/01
End 1990H2/31 1930/12/31
11990/12/31
Ok |
Cancel
5-72
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5. The Modify Existing Data form has been updated with a description of the selected data
set in the Compute PET box. The How to Modify box contains a list of methods for
modifying the data-set values. For this scenario, select the "Change Temperature"
option. In the Degrees to add to each existing temperature value frame, there are two
modification options: Single Change or Iterate Changes. The term "iterate", as used
here, refers to the automation of multiple runs. The Single Change option will result in
one adjustment applied to the temperature and PET data sets. The Iterate Changes
option will result in a series of adjustments to the temperature and PET data sets and is
used to create synthetic climate change scenarios as defined in Section 3.3.1.5. Click the
Iterate Changes radio button and the form will be updated to allow entry of Minimum
and Maximum degree changes along with an Increment to apply over that range. Enter
a Minimum value of "0," a Maximum value of "3," and an Increment value of "1."
This will create a synthetic scenario with four iterations, the first being identical to the
original data, and the ensuing three having 1 additional degree added to historical
temperature data with PET data being computed from each. Click the Ok button to
complete the scenario definition process.
_ Modify Existing Data
Modification Name: |Synthenc Temp
Existing Data to Modify [OBSERVED BELTSVIL AIRTMP
Compute PET: |0BSERVED BELTSVIL PET
Hew to Modify: [Change Temperature
C^r^..toa
-------
6. The Climate Assessment Tool form is now updated to show the newly defined climate
scenario. To begin defining the synthetic precipitation scenario, click the Add button
again.
Climate Assessment Tool
File Edit Options Help
~mate Data ] Assessment Endpoints ] Results Table | Pivot Tabfe |
B ase S cenario | C:\BASIN S \D ataSCIirnate\base. uci
| Modified
New Scenario
[ Add ll
Remove
Edit
View I
Prepared [
y] Increase Piecip Multiply11.2
yj Seasonal Piecip Multiply 1.2 Month: Jun Jul Aug
a Partial Precip Mu*iply 0.8 Water Year: 1306
3 Storm Intensity Flash 10
y] Storm. Frequency AddE vents 10 Month. Mai Apr May
y] TempeiatureAdd2
yj Ternp Cool Seascwi Add 2 Month: Jan Feb Mar Apr Nov Dec
y] Temp Warm Season Add 4 Month: May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
yl..PattialTempAdd4Water-¥ear:J.986
0 Synthetic T emp Add from 0 to 3iteo.jJ>
Start
T otal iterations selected = 4 (0:32}
5-74
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7. From the Modify Existing Data form, enter "Synthetic Precip" in the Modification
Name field. Next, click in the Existing Data to Modify box to select the precipitation
data set to be modified. As in step 2, from the Select data to vary form, click the
OBSERVED item from the Scenario list. From the Matching Data list, click on the
data set with the attributes OBSERVED UPMARLBRIIPRECIP, and then click the
Ok button. The Modify Existing Data form will be updated to show the selected
precipitation data set.
Modify Existing Data
Modification Name: J Synthetic Preeip
View
Existing Data to Modify : [OBSERVED UPMARLBR HPREClP
Compute PET. |
-------
8. For the synthetic precipitation scenario, select Multiply Existing Values by a Number
from the How to Modify list. As with the synthetic temperature scenario, click on the
Iterate Changes option in the Number to multiply existing data by frame. Enter a
Minimum value of "1.0," a Maximum value of "1.3," and an Increment value of "0.1."
This will create a synthetic scenario with four iterations, the first being identical to the
original data and the ensuing three having 1/10 additional volume added to the historical
precipitation data. Click the Ok button to complete the scenario definition process.
Modify Existing Data
Modification Name: (Synthetic FVecip
Existing Data to Modify (OBSERVED UPMARLBR HP R EC IP
Compute PET:
Hew to Modify:
View
| cdick lo specify PET to replace > View
| Multiply Existing Values by a Number w~|
N jrrb&r.{o--muhip1'i;''e3(j'!5'tvrF3-dal»iby
i. i-i I? i. i i-i-.
,.P" Single Change f* Karate Change*-,.
Minimum JTo multiplication 'factor
Maximum [73 multiplication factor
...Increment: [51 Increase thjis much each iteration from Minimum
Events
f" Vary precipitation only in the fallowing Events
Seasons
V Vary only in selected
Ok
Cancel
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9. Click the Ok button to complete defining the synthetic precipitation scenario. The newly
defined scenario will be shown on the Climate Assessment Tool form.
Climate Assessment; Tool
File Ed* Options Help
Climate Date || Assessment Endpotnis j Results T able j Pi vol T able j
Base Scenaiio |C: \BAS INS \D ala\Ctonate\base.uci
New Scenaiio jMoctfied
QsQ
Add |
Remove |
LlJ
View j
Piepaied |
0 IncieasePrecip Multiply 1.2
E Seasonal Precip Multiply 1.2 Month: Juri Jul Aug
y Partial Precip Multiply O.SWater Year: 1386
y Stomn Intensity Intensify 10
ic.lOTnpAdd
Stait
I otaJ iterations selected = 18 (2:07)
10. To complete this tutorial, save the state of BASINS CAT, using the FilerSave Climate
and Endpoints menu option, if desired.
5.1.6. Exporting Climate Change Scenarios as ASCII Text Files
This tutorial illustrates how individual record adjustments made using BASINS CAT can
be exported to a file for use elsewhere. Examples include a modified temperature or
precipitation time series for use with a model external to BASINS. Running this tutorial requires
that one or more record adjustments have already been made, such as those illustrated in the
previous tutorials (Sections 5.1.1.1 through 5.1.2.3). This tutorial can also be performed using
record adjustments other than those shown here.
Note that scenarios composed of multiple record adjustments to a single time series, e.g.,
a temperature record receiving different adjustments for each season of the year, cannot be
viewed or saved until an HSPF model ran has been made. Accessing this type of modified data
is shown in Section 5.4.4.
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This tutorial illustrates how to view and save individual record adjustments. Each
individual record adjustment made during a BASINS CAT application can be viewed and saved
from the Climate Data tab.
1. Begin this tutorial by selecting one of the record adjustments shown on the Climate Data
tab.
Climate Assessment Tool
Fife Edit Options Help
Climate Data j Assessment Endpoints | Results Table ] Pivot Table ]
Base S cenario C: \BAS IN S \Data\Gimate\base. uci
New Scerario | Modified
Add |
Remove |
Edit
View |
Prepared |
Increase Precip Multiply 1.2
Start T otal iteiatiorts selected = 1 (0:08)
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2. Next, click the View button and a listing of the modified data set will be displayed.
1 Timeseries List
^¦-|o|x|
File Edit View
Analysis Help
History 1
from base.wdnn
Max
3.072
I
Mean
0.0057794
Min
0
Sunn
1,773.3
1955/12/31 09:00
0
1955/12/31 10:00
0
1955/12/31 11:00
0
1955/12/31 12:00
0
1955/12/31 13:00
0
1955/12/31 14:00
0
1955/12/31 15:00
0
1955/12/31 16:00
0
1955/12/31 17:00
0
1955/12/31 18:00
0
1955/12/31 19:00
0
1955/12/31 20:00
0
1955/12/31 21:00
0
1955/12/31 22:00
0
1955/12/31 23:00
0
1955/12/31 24:00
0
1956/01/01 01:00
0
1956/01/01 02:00
0
1956/01/01 03:00
0
1956/01/01 04:00
0
1956/01/01 05:00
0
J
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From the Time series List form, select the File:Save menu option and a file dialogue
form will allow the user to specify the file to which the listing is to be saved. The values
will be saved in a tab-separated format as shown below.
Timeseries_List.tnt - Notepad
MM
File Edit Format View Help
jrimeseries Li st T1
History 1 from base.wdm !Z3
Max 3.072
Mean 0.0057794
Mi n 0
Sum 1,773.3
195 5/12/31 09:00 0
195 5/12/31 10:00 0
195 5/12/31 11:00 0
195 5/12/31 12:00 0
195 5/12/31 13:00 0
195 5/12/31 14:00 0
195 5/12/31 15:00 0
195 5/12/31 16:00 0
195 5/12/31 17:00 0
195 5/12/31 18:00 0
195 5/12/31 19:00 0
195 5/12/31 20:00 0
195 5/12/31 21:00 0
195 5/12/31 22:00 0
195 5/12/31 23:00 0
195 5/12/31 24:00 0
1956/01/01 01:00 0
1956/01/01 02:00 0
1956/01/01 03:00 0
1956/01/01 04:00 0
1956/01/01 05:00 0
1956/01/01 06:00 0
1956/01/01 07:00 0
1956/01/01 08:00 0
1956/01/01 09:00 0
1956/01/01 10:00 0
1956/01/01 11:00 0
1956/01/01 12:00 0
1956/01/01 13:00 0
1956/01/01 14:00 0
JLI
A
To end this tutorial, close the Time series List form.
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5.2. TOOLS FOR ASSESSING HYDROLOGIC AND WATER QUALITY ENDPOINTS
Standard HSPF output files from a simulation using BASINS CAT can be saved for later
analysis (see the tutorial in Section 5.3). BASINS CAT also provides, however, a
post-processing capability for calculating different hydrologic and water quality endpoints based
on HSPF output time series data. As used here, an endpoint is any metric or value of concern
that the user wishes to compute from the output of an HSPF simulation. Endpoints can range
from simple (e.g., mean streamflow, annual sediment load) to complex (e.g., n-day frequency
flow values).
The tutorials in this section illustrate how to:
• Select endpoints to be calculated from HSPF output time series data
• Specify value ranges of concern
• Specify time periods of concern
5.2.1. Endpoint Options
To begin this tutorial, the Climate Assessment Tool form should be displayed with the
"\Basins\Data\Climate\base.uci" file as the Base Scenario, "Modified" as the New Scenario, and
the "\Basins\Data\Climate\base.wdm" file added to the BASINS project. These specifications
are performed in the BASINS CAT Set-up tutorial in Section 5.0, which must be run before this
tutorial.
This tutorial shows how assessment endpoints are specified with BASINS CAT. The
final result of this tutorial is the specification of two assessment endpoints: one for streamflow,
and one for total nitrogen loading.
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1. The defining of endpoints is performed through the Assessment Endpoints tab on the
BASINS CAT form. Click on this tab. Begin defining a new endpoint by clicking on the
Add button. The Endpoint form will open. This form contains the controls needed to
define an assessment endpoint, including the endpoint name, the model output time series
data set to be analyzed, and the attribute of the output data to be calculated. The
Endpoint Name field is used to provide a text label for identifying the assessment
endpoint being created. Begin defining this endpoint by entering "Flow" in the Endpoint
Name field.
.zJOjjcj
Attribute |Mean
Highlight Values
"3
Default Color: |White
Minimum Value:
Cotof Lower Values:
Maximum Value:
CoN* Higher Values:
Seasons
f~ Only incJude values in selected
Ok | Cancel
5-82
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2. Begin defining the output time series data for the endpoint by clicking in the Data set
box and the Select data for endpoint form will open. A detailed description of this form
is found in steps 2 and 3 of the tutorial under Section 5.1.2.1. In the first column, under
the Scenario label, click on the SCEN item and all data sets with a Scenario attribute of
SCEN will be added to the Matching Data list. In looking at the last column of the
Matching Data list, note the data set with the Constituent name FLOW. Click on this
data set and it will be added to the Selected Data list. Click the Ok button to close the
form.
Select data for endpoint
File Attributes Select Help
Select Attribute Values to Filter Available Cata
| Scenario
OBSERVED
PI-DEIS
base
Matching Data
-------
3. The Endpoint form has now been updated with a description of the selected flow data in
the Data set box. The Attribute pull-down list contains the attributes available for
selection as assessment endpoints. BASINS CAT provides a range of attributes, from
standard statistics (e.g., mean, sum, standard deviation) to duration-frequency statistics
(e.g., 7Q10, 100-year flood). For this example, we will specify an endpoint focused on
high flow, so select the lHilOO (i.e., 1-day Hi value occurring every 100 years or 100
year flood) item from the list.
L Endpoint
-JDIXI
Outpoint Name: Row
Data .s«f£ jsCEN RCH5 FLOW
Attribute: [lHighlM
d
Highlight Values
Default Color: White
Minimum'Value: |snorie>
Color Lower Values |bwpSkyBiue
Maximum Value: |«r>one>
Color Higher Values [OtangsRad |
JH3UD
P Only include values in selected
Ok
Cancel
L
5-84
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4. Click the Ok button to complete defining this endpoint. The Climate Assessment Tool
form will be updated to show the newly defined end point.
Climate Assessment Toot
Fde Edit Options Help
Climate Dala Assessment Endpoints | Results Table | Pivot Table |
r Save All Results
I- S how Progress of E ach Run
—[Qj2Lf
Add |
Remove |
Edi
CORJI |
Top |
Bottom
1/ Flow 1H ighl 00
Start T otal iterations selected = 1S (2:10)
5-85
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5. Next we will define a second assessment endpoint, the average annual total nitrogen load.
Begin defining the endpoint by clicking the Add button again. Enter "Total N" in the
Endpoint Name field and then click in the Data set box to select the appropriate data
set. On the Select data for endpoint form, again click the SCEN item in the Scenario
list. From the Matching Data list, click on the data set with a constituent name of
TN-LOAD. Click the Ok button to close the form.
Select data for endpoint
File Attributes Select Hetp
Select Attribute Values to Filter Available Data
| Seen
ano
T | (Locator:
OBSERVED
PT-.OBS-
base
Matching Data (4 of 2221)
SCEN
SCEN
SCEN
015S4526
BELTSV1L
J>101
LAUREL
Pi 01
P:102
T I |QjnsWuera
AG WET
il
AGWl
AGWO
AGWS
A1RT
A1RTMP
LOJjsi
3
=)
d
Selected Data (1 of 2221)
SCEN
RCH5
Dates to Irvclude
All | Common' |
TN-LOAD
Start
End 1988*0900
i9flsnooi
198&TO/30
1SS5/10/01
1193B/D9/3Q
Ok
Cancel
5-86
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6. The Endpoint form has now been updated with a description of the selected Flow data in
the Data set box. As opposed to the previous event selected for the flow endpoint, this
endpoint will assess annual values. In the Attribute list, select the SuniAnnual item,
resulting in an endpoint that reports the average annual total Nitrogen load.
Z_ Endpoint
Endpoint Narsef [Total N
Dataf set: |SCEN RCH5 TN-LOAD
Attribute:.. |Sum Annual
Highlight Values
73
Default Color: [wfvte
Minimum Value
Color Lower Values:
Maximum Value
Co)of Higher Values:
cnoneJ
Seasons
F Only include values in seleciea
Ok
Cancel
5-87
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7. Click the Ok button to complete defining this endpoint. The Climate Assessment Tool
form now shows both endpoints defined in this tutorial.
Climate Assessment Tool
File Edit Options Help
Climate Data Assessment Endpoints | Results Table 1 Pivot Table j
I- Save All Results
r Show Progress oJ Each Run
Add
Remove
Edit |
Copy |
Top
Bottom
0..JEbw..1.HighlOa
^ Total N SumAnntial
Start T olal iteiations selected = 1612:07)
8. To complete this tutorial, save the state of CAT, using the FilerSave Climate and
Endpoints menu option, if desired.
5.2.2. Specify Value Ranges of Concern
To begin this tutorial, the Climate Assessment Tool form should be displayed with the
"\Basins\Data\Climate\base.uci" file as the Base Scenario, "Modified" as the New Scenario, and
the "\Basins\Data\Climate\base.wdm" file added to the BASINS project. These specifications
are performed in the BASINS CAT Set-up tutorial in Section 5.0, which must be run before this
tutorial.
BASINS CAT provides a capability to visually flag endpoint values in the results table
falling within specified ranges. Critically low and/or high values can be entered, along with
indicator colors, during endpoint definition. Endpoint values that fall outside of the specified
critical range will then be highlighted in the specified indicator color on the results display. This
tutorial will demonstrate how to specify value ranges of concern when selecting endpoints.
5-88
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1. The defining of endpoints is performed through the Assessment Endpoints tab on the
BASINS CAT form. After clicking on this tab, begin defining a new endpoint by
clicking on the Add button. The form contains the controls needed to define an
assessment endpoint, including the endpoint name, the data set to be analyzed, and the
attribute of the data set to be reported. Details of how to define these elements are found
in steps 1 through 3 of the tutorial in Section 5.2.1. Begin defining this endpoint by
entering "Flow" in the Endpoint Name field. Click in the Data set box to select the data
set to be analyzed using the Select data for endpoint form. A detailed description of
this form is found in steps 2 and 3 of the tutorial in Section 5.1.2.1. On the Select data
for endpoint form, select the data set with the attributes SCEN RCH5 FLOW. Leave
the Attribute field as the default of Mean. The form should now appear as below.
Attribute;...!™®1
Highlight Values
Default Color |White
Minimum Value: | crane >
Color Lower Values
Maximum Value: |;rwie>
Color Higher Values:
Seasons
F Only include values in selected
Ok
Cancel
d
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2. The highlight feature in BASINS CAT is provided as an aid to visually interpreting
model output. Specifications for this feature are found in the Highlight Values frame.
In this example, we wish to highlight any streamflow values falling outside of the range
from 90 to 150 cubic feet per second. Type in "90" for the Minimum Value and "150"
for the Maximum Value. Results within the specified range will be displayed in cells
with the Default Color background. Results below the Minimum Value will be
displayed with the Color Lower Values background. Results above the Maximum
Value will be displayed with the Color Higher Values background. Colors for all three
ranges can be updated by clicking in the color fields.
Data set SCEN RCH5 FLOW
Attribute |
Highlight Values
Default Ccjcr:' [white"
MintmuTiVelue: fjO
Colo* lowfr Values | Deep Sky Blue
Maxirmhri Value
Color Higher Values.
50
¦Seasons
r Only include values in selected
7]
T
Ok
Cancel
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3. Click the Ok to finish defining this endpoint. The newly created endpoint will be
displayed on the Climate Assessment Tool form.
Climate Assessment Tool
File Ed* Options Kdp
Climate Data Assessment Endpoints ] Results Table 1 Pi vol Table |
Save Al Results
f- Show Progress ol Each Run
[~H
Add ]
Remove |
LU
c°py |
Top | v |
Bottom
y Flow 1 Highl 00
Ejjjj[J^NSumftmudl.
v Flow Mean from 90 to 150
Stait T otal iterations selected = 16 (£07)
5.2.3. Specify Time Periods of Concern (Seasonal and/or Partial Records)
To begin this tutorial, the Climate Assessment Tool form should be displayed with the
"\Basins\Data\Climate\base.uci" file as the Base Scenario, "Modified" as the New Scenario,
and the "\Basins\Data\Climate\base.wdm" file added to the BASINS project. These
specifications are performed in the BASINS CAT Set-up tutorial in Section 5.0, which must be
run before this tutorial.
BASINS CAT provides a capability for calculating assessment endpoints based only on
model output time series data within a specified period of time in the model output data set. The
selected period of time can be either a series of months or seasons within each year, or a selected
year or years within the full output data set. Calculating endpoints based only on selected years
within a record can be more appropriate when evaluating climate change scenarios where
adjustments are made only to selected years within the record, or a partial record. This tutorial
shows how to specify a subset period of time within the full output data set for computing
assessment endpoints. The final result of this tutorial is the specification of an assessment
endpoint for minimum streamflow during the summer months.
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1. The defining of endpoints is performed through the Assessment Endpoints tab on the
BASINS CAT form. After clicking on this tab, begin defining a new endpoint by
clicking on the Add button. The Endpoint form contains the controls needed to define
an assessment endpoint, including the endpoint name, the data set to be analyzed, and the
attribute of the data set to be reported. Details of how to define these elements are found
in steps 1 through 3 of the tutorial in Section 5.2.1. Begin defining this endpoint by
entering "Summer Flow" in the Endpoint Name field. Click in the Data set box to
select the data set to be analyzed using the Select data for endpoint form. A detailed
description of this form is found in steps 2 and 3 of the tutorial in Section 5.1.2.1. On the
Select data for endpoint form, select the data set with the attributes SCEN RCH5
FLOW from the Select data for endpoints form. This endpoint will look at minimum
summer flow, so select Min from the Attribute list. The form should now appear as
below.
Endpoint
Eixtpoint Natpe:
Smmier Flow
Cats 5,et SCEN RCH5 FLOW
Attribute:""}^
Highlight Values
DeSault Color ¦
Mini mom Value:
Colcc Lower Valises'
MaximumValue: |
Color Higher Values:
Seasons
r Only include values in selected
3
Ok
Cancel
d
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2. The Seasons frame near the bottom of the form is used for specifying the time period to
be used when computing the endpoint value. Begin defining this subset by clicking on
the Only include values in selected check box and two additional fields will be
displayed. The first field is a list of time subset options that includes Calendar Years,
Months, and Water Years. The second field will display a list of available time
intervals based on the item selected in the first field. For example, selecting Water
Years from the first field will populate the second field with a list of available water
years based on the period of record of the data set. For this example, select the Months
option and the second field will be populated with the months of the year. Items in the
second field can be selected and unselected by clicking on them. Additionally, the
buttons below the list can be used to select All or None of the items. To report endpoint
values during summer months, select Jun, Jul, and Aug.
Endpoint
Endpoint Name | Summer Flow
Data 5«l: SCEN RCH5 FLOW
Attribute [Si
Highlight Values
Default Color
Minimum Value:
White
tnone>
Color Lower Vel lies: Deep Sky B
Color Higher Values
Seasojis"
P Only include values in selected Months
\3
All
Ok
None
Cancel
d
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3. Click the Ok to complete defining of this endpoint. The newly created endpoint will be
displayed on the Climate Assessment Tool form.
Climate Assessment Tool
File Edit Options He(p
Climate Date Assessment Endpoints I Results T aWe 1 Pivot Table |
F~ SaveAl Results
f" Show Progress of Each Run
Add |
Remove |
Edit
Copi1 [
JlJ Jll
Bottom
Flow IHajhl 00
B T otal N SumAnnual
Ei..E!omMeanJrjQii3.30.to.lSO
Summer Flow Min Month: Jun Jul Augu
S tail Total iterations selected -16 (2:07)
5.3. RUNNING AN HSPF SIMULATION USING BASINS CAT
This tutorial demonstrates how to run an HSPF simulation using BASISN CAT. To
begin this tutorial, at least one climate change scenario and one hydrologic or water quality
endpoint must be defined. Climate change scenarios are defined by selecting any number of
record adjustments developed in the tutorials under Section 5.1. Hydrologic or water quality
endpoints are defined in the tutorials under Section 5.2. This tutorial refers to climate record
adjustments and hydrologic and water quality endpoints defined in the previous tutorials. It is
also possible, however, to perform this tutorial using other record adjustments (climate
scenarios) and assessment endpoints.
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1. The first step in performing an assessment using BASINS CAT is to define the climate
scenario(s) to be run by the model. The tutorial in Section 5.1.3 provides examples of
this task. Using that tutorial's first scenario as an example, go to the Climate Data tab
and select the two record adjustments shown below to build a climate scenario for this
assessment. Record adjustments are selected by placing a check in the appropriate
checkbox. (Note: If you did not perform the tutorials that developed these record
adjustments, you can select other adjustments to build a different climate scenario and
continue with this exercise.)
** Climate Assessment Tool
Fie Edit Options Help
~innate Data | Assessment Endpeints) Results Table | Pivot TaWe
MB
8 ase $ eenario | C:\BASINS\D ataVCIimate'sbas e. uei
N ew> S cenario | Modified
Add | Remove | Edit | View | Prepared |
Increase Piecip Multiply 1-2
I J Se«on¥Pie^pWuItIpljf 1,2 Mordh: Jim Jul Aug
~ Partial Precip Muftiply 0.8 Water Year: 1986
_] Storm Iritemsity Intensify 10
1 S.tarc.£wquencyAdd£.v£nl£ 10 Month; Ma Apr May
an
~ Temprcibr Selsori A'cH 2 Month: Jan. Feb Mar Apr Nov Dec
~ Temp Warm Season Add 4 Month: May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
O Partial Temp Add 3 Water Year: 1986
~ Synthetic T emp Add from 0 to 3 step 1
~ Synthetic Piecip Multiply from 1 to 1.3 step 0.1
Start | T otal itecations selected ¦ 1 (0:08)
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2. The next step is selecting the hydrologic and water quality endpoints of interest. Any
number of endpoints can be selected. For this example, go to the Assessment Endpoints
tab and select the endpoints shown below. Endpoints are selected by placing a check in
the appropriate checkbox. (Note: If you did not perform the tutorials that developed
these endpoints, you can select other endpoints and continue with this exercise.)
Climate Assessment Tool
File Edit Options Help
Ornate Data I Assessment Enfliwlriiis j| Remits Table | Pivot Table |
r Save All Resufcs
I- S how Progress- of E ach Run
cms
Add |
Remove I
Edit
Copy |
Top | " | v |
Bottom
g Row lHighTOO
fel .I.otalM.SynAomual...
m
|J Summer Flow Win Month: Jun Jul Aug
Start Total iterations selected = 1 (0:09)
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3. Before model execution, two additional options on the Assessment Endpoints tab can be
set: Save All Results and Show Progress of Each Run. The Save All Results check
box is used to specify whether or not all model output time series data is saved, not just
the assessment endpoint values. Checking this box will save model output in a new data
set. The text entered in the New Scenario field on the Climate Data tab will be used as
the base file name for the new output files. When saving results from synthetic scenarios,
this base name will also have model run number added to it (i.e., modified-1, modified-2,
etc.). The Show Progress of Each Run check box is used to set whether or not a status
monitor will be displayed while the model is running. If a model run is particularly long,
or a series of model runs are being made using synthetic data, checking this box can be
useful to see the progress of the model run(s). For this example, leave these two boxes
unchecked. Click the Start button to run the model. The Results Table tab will be
activated to display the endpoint results.
Climate Assessment Tool
File Ecftt Options HeGp
Climate Data | Assessment Endpoiits Resits Table | pivol Table ]
HQ
Run Increase Piecip
Multiply
CurrentVafue
T ernperalure
Add
Cunent Value
Flow
1 High"! 00
SCEN RCH5FL0W
Total W
SunrAnnual
SCEN RCH5 TN-LOAD
Flow
Mean
SCEN RCH5FL0W
Start Finished with 1 runs
5.4. TOOLS FOR SUMMARIZING AND VISUALIZING RESULTS
The BASINS CAT interface provides standard tabular (results table) and pivot table
options for summarizing and visualizing the results of HSPF simulations. Additional graphics
and data listing capabilities are also available from within the BASINS system.
The tutorials in this section illustrate the following options for viewing results:
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• Results Tables - BASINS CAT's tabular output of assessment endpoint values
• Pivot Tables - BASINS CAT's pivot table output of assessment endpoint values
• Exporting Results - output of assessment endpoint values to files in a format that can be
analyzed or visualized using external software
• Additional BASINS Tools - analysis and display features available in BASINS
5.4.1. Results Tables
This tutorial demonstrates the standard tabular output capabilities of BASISN CAT. To
begin this tutorial, at least one climate change scenario and one hydrologic or water quality
endpoint must be defined. Climate change scenarios are defined by selecting any number of
record adjustments developed in the tutorials under Section 5.1. Hydrologic or water quality
endpoints are defined in the tutorials in Section 5.2. This tutorial refers to record adjustments
and hydrologic or water quality endpoints developed in previous tutorials. It is also possible,
however, to perform this tutorial using other adjustments and endpoints.
1. Begin this example by defining a climate change scenario. Following the second
example from the tutorial in Section 5.1.3, go to the Climate Data tab and select the
record adjustments shown below. (Note: If you did not perform the tutorials that
developed these record adjustments, you can select other adjustments to build a different
climate scenario and continue with this exercise.)
Climate Assessment Tool
Fie Edit Options Help
Climate Oats | Assessment Endpoints | Resets Table] Pivot T able ]
EMS
Base Scenario | C: \8AS IN S \pata^Climate\base. uci
New Scenario
| Modified
Add |
Remove
Edit
View |
Prepared
|0 increase Precip Multiply 1.2
iJ..S.easoiMl"P»eeip-MwltipV-4v3-Ms^h;.Jm.J.y!.Augi
H..Partial Precip Multiply 0.8 Water Year: 1986.
~ Storm intensiiylnileflsify''TO'
~ Storm Frequency AddE vents 10 Monthc Mai Apr May
~ Temperature Add 2
D Temp Cool Season Add 2 Month: Jan Feb Mar Apt Nov Dec
Temp.Warai.Sjeas.oaAdd..4..WQn!b: May Juri Jul Aug Sep Oct
eci
] SyntFieKc T«fip'A'dd?rWt}'to'3 Step '1
~ Synthetic Precip Multiply from 1 to 1.3 step 0.1
Start T otaJ iterations selected ¦ 1 (0.08)
5-98
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2. Next, select the hydrologic or water quality endpoints of interest for this assessment. For
this example, go to the Assessment Endpoints tab and select the endpoints shown below.
(Note: If you did not perform the tutorials that developed these endpoints, you can select
other endpoints and continue with this exercise.)
Climate Assessment Tool
Ne Edit Options Help
Climate Date Assessment Endpoints I Results Table I Pivot Table I
EME1
f~ Save All Results
r Show Progress of Each Rin
Add |
Remove j
Edit
Copy |
Top
Bottom
Q.ftewlMisJilOO
'3 Total N SumAnnual
/I Flow Mean horn 90 to 150
y I
Summer Flow Min Month: Jun Jul Aug
Stert T otel iterations selected = 1 |0:08)
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3. To execute the model run for this assessment, click the Start button at the bottom of the
form. When the model has completed, BASINS CAT will report the resulting endpoint
values on the Results Table tab. The BASINS CAT form can be resized to show all
resulting values at the same time. Note that for this assessment, the average flow value
falls below the minimum value of concern specified for that endpoint (indicated by blue
highlighting).
Climate Assessment Tool
Fte Edit Options Help
Cfaate Data) Assessment Endpoints Results Table j Pivot Table |
Run Partial Piecip
Multiply
Current Value
Partial T emp
Add
Current Value
UdaAWflSttl Wi(erreai'riW]"'
Total N
SurAmual
SCEN RCH5 TN-LOAD
Flow Summer Flow
Mean Min
SCEN RCH5 FLOW SCE N R CHS FLOW
M«r^|JmJ(i.Aug J
0.8 3 289,360 81 142 H 10.108
J
Start
Finished with t funs
4. Output tables in BASINS CAT can also be saved to an external file for use outside of the
program. Choose the Save Results item from the File menu and a dialogue form will
prompt for the file name in which the results are to be saved. Results are saved in a
tab-delimited format, suitable for import into Excel and other analysis programs.
5.4.2. Pivot Tables
This tutorial demonstrates how to view BASINS CAT results in the form of a pivot table.
To begin this tutorial, the tutorial in Section 5.1.5 must have been run to create synthetic climate
change scenarios for precipitation and temperature. Additionally, at least one hydrologic or
water quality endpoint must be defined. Hydrologic or water quality endpoints are defined in the
tutorials in Section 5.2.
A pivot table is a data visualization and mining tool that allows users to reorganize
selected columns and rows of data within a database. The term pivot refers to turning the data to
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view it from different perspectives. Pivot tables are useful for summarizing large amounts of
data in a compact format, looking for patterns and relationships within a data set, and organizing
data into a format suitable for plotting as a chart. The pivot table feature is particularly useful for
displaying results produced when running multiple synthetic climate change scenarios.
1. Begin this example by defining a climate change scenario. On the Climate Data tab,
select the two synthetic climate change scenarios developed in Section 5.1.5, as shown
below. Note that since each synthetic scenario has four iterations, a total of 16 model
runs will be made, one for each unique combination of precipitation and temperature
values.
Climate Assessment Tool
mmm
Ffe Edit Options Help
Climate Data j Assessment Endpoints | Results Table] Pivot Table]
Base Scenario | C: ASIN S \Data^Climaie\base. uoi
New Scenario | Modified
Add |
Remove [
Edit 1
View |
Prepared
~ Increase Precip Multiply 1.2
O Seasonal Piecip Multiply 1.2 Month: Jun Jut Aug
~ Partial Precip Multiply 0.8 Water Year: 1986
~ Storm Intensity Intensify 10
~ Storm Frequency AddE vents 10 Month: Mai Apr May
~ Temperature Add 2
~ Temp Cool Season Add 2 Month: Jan Feb Mar Ap» Nov Dec
~ Temp Warm Season Add 4 Month: May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
;j..PartiafT#mp'Atf3'3'Waiter'
3 Synthetic T etrip Add from 0 to 3 step 1 ""•••,
B\
Synthetic riecip Multiply from 1 to 1.3 step 0.1
Start T otal iterations selected * 16 (2:21)
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2. Next, select the hydrologic or water quality endpoints of interest for this assessment. For
this example, go to the Assessment Endpoints tab and select the endpoints shown below.
(Note: If you did not perform the tutorials that developed these endpoints, you can select
other endpoints and continue with this exercise.)
Climate Assessment Tool
File Edit Options Help
Climate Data Assessment Endpoints j ReaAs Table | Pivot Table |
S a vie All Results
1^ Show Progress of Each Run
Add |
Ransom]
3s. 1
Copy j
Top JJJ. Bottom |
3 Flow 1high100
3 Total N SumAnnual
3L
n 5ammet.ElQw..M.itl...M.onth:.Jun"Jtf Aug
Start Total itefations selected = 1S (2:21 J
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3. Since this assessment will involve 16 model runs, it is advisable to activate the Show
Progress of Each Run option. This will provide feedback on the rate at which BASINS
CAT is processing the model runs. To execute the model runs for this assessment, click
the Start button at the bottom of the form. When the model has completed, BASINS
CAT will report the resulting endpoint values on the Results Table tab. Click on the
Pivot Table tab to explore additional BASINS CAT output features. The first two fields
of this form are used to specify what element to vary in the Rows and Columns of the
pivot table. For this exercise, select Synthetic Temp Add Current Value and Synthetic
Precip Multiply Current Value for the Rows and Columns field values. The Cells
field is used to specify what element will be displayed in the pivot table's cells. Select
Flow Mean SCEN RCH5 FLOW for this field and the resulting pivot table will appear
as follows.
Climate Assessment Tool
File Edit Options Hetp
Climate Da!a | Assessmept-E'ifKjpoinls | Results Table Pivot Tabfe
Ro^S'' ISjjrfhettc Temp Add Current Value]
3
Columns pynlhelic Pfecip Multiply Current Value
Cells Flow Mean SCEN RCH5 FLOW
3
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
0
35 307
114.23
133.75
153.73
T
92751
111.44
130.73
150.61
2
30238
108.69
127.8
147.47
3
.... 87733
105.88
124 85
144.33
Start
Finished w4h 16 funs
4. Note that some of the flow values fall below or above the minimum and maximum values
of concern that were specified when defining this endpoint. As desired, users can
familiarize themselves with the pivot table's capabilities by changing the selections in the
3 fields above the table.
5.4.3. Exporting Results for Use With External Software
This tutorial shows how results from HSPF simulations conducted using BASINS CAT
can be exported for analysis and visualization outside of the BASINS system. To perform this
tutorial, it is necessary to first complete the tutorial in Section 5.4.2 (Pivot Tables).
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1. This tutorial begins with the final step of the previous tutorial, which should be the
display of a pivot table on the BASINS CAT form.
Climate Assessment Tool
File Edit Options Help
Climate Data | Assessment Endpoints j Results Table Pivot Table |
Rows [Synthetic Temp Add Current Valuej
Columns |Synthetic Precip Multiply Current Value
Cells |Flow Mean SCEN RCHS FLOW
~sE
31
"3
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
0
95.307
114.23
133.75
153.73
1
32.751
111.44
130.78
150.81
2
30.238
108.83
127.3
147.47
3
87.783
105.38
124.85
144.33
3
Start Finished with 16 runs
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2. Output results from both the Pivot Table can be saved to an external file. The Save
Pivot option in the File menu provides access to saving the table. A file dialogue form
will then prompt for the name of the output file. The results will be saved in a
tab-delimited format, which are readily imported into Excel and other analysis packages.
As described in Section 5.4.1, the Results Table can also be saved to an external file in
the same manner.
Climate Assessment Tool
Fit Edit Options Help
Open UCI file
Load Climate and Endpoints
Save Climate and Endpoints
Load Results
Save Results
HBB
its | Results Table Pivot Table
Save Pivot
Add Current Value
Multiply Current Value
N RCH5 FLOW
~3
*3
1.3
0
95.307
114.23
m?5
153.73
1
32.751
111.44
130.73
isaei
2
30.238
108.63
127.8
14747
3
67.783
105.33
124.85
144 33
Start Finished with 16 runs
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3. Results from the results table or a pivot table can also be copied to the clipboard. These
results can then be directly pasted into an external program.
Climate Assessment Tool
rMZ]
Fife Edt Options Help
PSSteteiulcs
Endpoints | Results TaWe Pivot Table
ic. Temp Add Current Value
11
3
Columns |Syrithfilic Pfecip Multiply Cuiient Value
d
Cells | Flow SCE N R CH 5 FLOW
d
1.2
1.3
0
95307
114.23
13175
153.73
1
32751
111 44
130 79
150 61
2
¦30238
10888
1278
14747
3
97 783
1105 38
124.85
144.33
Slsit Finished with 16 nuns
5.4.4. Additional BASINS Tools for Summarizing and Visualizing Results
This tutorial demonstrates how to access additional tools within the BASINS system for
viewing the results of HSPF simulations using BASINS CAT. To begin this tutorial, at least one
climate change scenario and one hydrologic or water quality endpoint must be defined. Climate
change scenarios are defined by selecting any number of record adjustments developed in the
tutorials under Section 5.1. Hydrologic or water quality endpoints are defined in the tutorials
under Section 5.2. This tutorial refers to climate record adjustments and hydrologic and water
quality endpoints developed in previous tutorials. It is possible, however, to perform this tutorial
using other climate record adjustments and assessment endpoints. More detailed documentation
5-106
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of data viewing and analysis capabilities within the BASINS system are available from the EPA
BASINS web site (http://www.epa.gov/waterscience/basins/).
1. Begin this example by defining a climate change scenario. For this example, a simple
scenario of intensifying precipitation will be used. (N ote: If you did not perform the
tutorial that developed this record adjustment, you can select another adjustment to build
a different climate scenario and continue with this exercise.)
Climate Assessment Tool
File Edit Options Help
Climate Data | Assessment Endpeints] Results Table] Pivot Table |
Base Scenario | C:\6ASIN S \Data\Climate\base. uci
New Scenario
| Modified
Add |
Remove |
Edit
View |
Prepared [
O Increase Precip Multiply 1.2
~ Seasonal Piecip Multiply 1,2 Month: Jun Jul Aug
~..Partial.Pf-0^W*i^..(lLfi.Ws|er Year: 1986
err
I~1 Storm Frequency Afldt verts 10 Month: Mat Apr May
Q Temperature Add 2
~ Temp Cool Season Add 2 Month. Jen Feb Mar Apr Nov Dec
~ Temp Warm Season Add 4 Worth: Me^i JunJul Aug Sep Oct
Partial TempAdd 3 Water Year: T9BG
~ Synthetic T emp Add from 0 to 3 step 1
~ Synthetic Piecip Multiply from 1 to 1.3 step 0.1
Start
T otal iterations selected = 1 (0:08)
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2. Next, select the hydrologic or water quality endpoints of interest for this assessment.
This example will focus on total nitrogen loads, so go to the Assessment Endpoints tab
and select the endpoints shown below. (Note: If you did not perform the tutorials that
developed these endpoints, you can select other endpoints and continue with this
exercise.) This exercise will demonstrate further analysis capabilities within BASINS, so
be sure the "Save All Results" option is checked.
Climate Assessment Tool
Fie Edit Options Help
Climate Date Assessment Endfcdnls | Results Table | Pivot Table |
.... 1^ SaveAII Results
r Show Progress of Each Run
Add |
Remove J
Edit
Cop?? |
Jopj _J_vJ
Bottom
~ RewTMighTOU -
v> Total N SwmAnnual
V)
f T'SUrrrmerf kw-Mir-Moffifi': Jun Jul Aug
Start Total iterations selected = 1 (0:08)
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3. To execute the model run for this assessment, click the Start button at the bottom of the
form. When the model has completed, BASINS CAT will report the resulting endpoint
values on the Results Table tab. To begin using BASINS analysis tools, return to the
main BASINS form and select the Manage Data option from the File menu. The Data
Sources form shows the data sources that are currently open, these being the WDM and
binary output (hbn) file from the Base run. From here the results from the modified
climate scenario can be loaded into the current BASINS project. Begin this process by
selecting the Open option from the File menu.
Data Sources
File Edit View Analysis Help
:\BASINS.\D:ata\C6r»ate\basa wdm (42)
3 HSPf Binary Output
,'" rATO^INS\Data\aimate\base.hbn (2179)
4. The Select a Data Source form displays the various data formats that BASINS can read.
Click on the WDM Time Series item and then click the Ok button.
9 Select a Data Source
nlxl
| 0 File
Basins Obseived Watei Quality DBF
CiGen Output
HSPF Binary Output
Integrated Surface Houly Data
MOAA Hourly Preeip Data, Archive Format, ID-3240
NQAA Summary erf the Day, Archive Fomat. TD-320Q
iWM..pgput.B,BF
Ok
Caned
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5. As BASINS CAT scenarios are run, their results are stored in a copy of the base WDM
file, but containing the modified input and output data. The file name is comprised of the
New Scenario and Base Scenario names (e.g., modified.base.wdm). If multiple
scenarios are run and the Save All Results option is selected (as in step 2 above),
additional WDM file copies are created with numbers inserted in their file names. The
most recently run scenario will be stored in the WDM file with the largest number. On
the ensuing dialogue form, select the WDM file starting with "modified" and having the
highest number, if any, in the file name.
Select WDM Time Series file to open
Look jit |. ') Climate"
^1
"'^Export
glbase.wdm
Modified-1 .base.wdm
^Modified, base. wdm
File name:
Files of type:
Modified-! base wdm
WDM Files (".wdm)
d
"Zl
Qpen
Cancel
My Documents
St
My Computer
My Netwoik
Places
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6. The Data Sources form will now list this WDM file along with the "Base" files.
" Data Sources
File Edit View Analysis Help
[ Q WDM
¦:HBB-\BASINS\Data\Climate\MQ
-------
7. The Data Sources form can now be closed. The Analysis menu contains a variety of
features to aid in assessment. To view the daily Nitrogen loads, select the List option
from this menu and the user will be prompted for the data sets to be listed. In the third
column, labeled Constituent, scroll down and select the I N-LOAD item. Two data sets
with the same Scenario, Location, and Constituent are available. To distinguish
between the two, it is necessary to change the attribute listed in one of the three columns.
Go to the first column, labeled Scenario, and click the pull-down list at the top of the
column. Scroll up the list and select the Data Source attribute, which shows the file
name of each data set.
Select Data
File Attrib.uJaes Select.... Help
Select Attribute Values to Filter-Available Data
Data Source
T k Location
CABAS IN S ataSCIimateW odified-+ (?1594526
C:\BASINS\D ata\Climate\bas0. hbn jj E LT S'VIL
J C: \BAS IN S \D ataVCIimate\base, wdm./1:101
LAUREL
RIO!
P:102
Matching Data [2 of 22G3)
C:\B AS IN S\D ata\Clirnate'\base. wdm R CH 5
C:\BASI N S \D ata\Climate\M odif ied-+ RCH5
w | [ Conslkueflt ~^~j
jl TAjy rj
foe
TOTALN
TOTALP
THLOAD
TN LOAD
Selected Data
Dates to Include
|
Start none
End
none
Ok
Cancel
5-112
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Clicking the Ok will automatically select the two Matching data sets and generate the
listing of the data sets" values. A variety of attributes are available for display at the top
of the listing. These are accessed through the File:Select Attributes menu option.
Select this option and customize the listing as desired.
* Timeseries List
File £difc View""
Analysis Help
Data Source
C:\BASINSVD ata\Gimate\base. wdm
C:\BASINS \Dala\Clirnate\M odifte-d-1. base. wdm...
Max
11,020
11,504
I
Mean
625.49
713.03
Min
3.9013
4,3894
Sum
685,540
781,480
SuffftmusJ..
1 qfiR/i n/m ?4-rin"
228,510
260,490
Wltf"
1 JQJ/ 1 U/U 1 lt.UU
1985/10/02 24:00
849.26
1,006.4
1985/10/03 24:00
11,020
11,504
1985/10/04 24:00
267.79
278.6
1985/10/05 24:00
604 84
650.71
1985/10/06 24:00
679.62
727.14
1985/10/07 24:00
601.42
64171
1985/10/08 24:00
522.34
556.87
1985/10/09 24:00
259.36
276.52
1985/10/10 24:00
118.9
127.79
1985/10/11 24:00
94.873
101.83
1985/10/12 24:00
239,72
256.34
1985/10/13 24:00
141.76
150.43
1985/10/14 24:00
469.52
476.14
1985/10/15 24:00
390.83
33101
1985/10/16 24:00
148.28
155.77
1985/10/17 24:00
172.96
181.99
1985/10/18 24:00
121.37
127.5
1985/10/19 24:00
52.456
54.957
1985/10/20 24:00
101.61
106.07
J
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9. The Analysis menu on the Time series List form contains many of the same analysis
functions as the main BASINS form. Select the Graph option from the Analysis menu
and the Choose Graphs to Create form is displayed.
Choose Graphs to Crea
- |Q| x|
yi Timeseries
..y ^
~'¦R«siaiial"{T'S2 - TS1)
~ Cumulative Difference
~ Scatter (TS2 v$ TS1)
All
None
Cancel (
Generate I}
'A
10. To see two examples of different graphs, select the Time series and Running Sum
graphs and then click the Generate button.
fB]
File Edit View Analysis Coordinates Help
12
10
Q
<
O
o 4
Base
Modified
i!
u
1985
1986
\
UiLhl
1987
U
II
I
RCH5
\
1988
5-114
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11. BASINS graphs can be manipulated in a variety of ways including resizing, zooming,
and customizing the various graph components.
Running Sum Graph
File Edit View Analysis (1986 May 11, 793,070) Help
800
MM
700
600
o
o 500
400
w 300
o
200
100
1986 1987
Running Sums at RCH5
1988
12. Along with listing and graphing, the BASINS system contains many other time series
analysis features including duration-frequency computations, seasonal statistic
computation, generation of additional time series from existing time series, and creation
of time series of distinct events that are above or below a threshold. In particular, the
SWSTAT plug-in contains many standard USGS statistical analysis techniques. It is
found under the Analysis menu on the main BASINS form, though, like BASINS CAT,
it may first need to be loaded as a plug-in.
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5.5. USING SCRIPTS TO AUTOMATE BASINS CAT APPLICATIONS
This tutorial demonstrates how to run scripts from BASINS to perform BASINS CAT
functions. Scripts are not necessary to run BASINS CAT, but are a potentially valuable resource
for BASINS CAT users. Scripts provide a way to automate repetitive tasks in BASINS CAT,
and also create a record of how procedures were accomplished. This tutorial is run from the
main BASINS form and requires no actual BASINS CAT interaction.
BASINS is an open-source software product, thus, its source code is readily available to
any user. There can, however, be a steep learning curve associated with the use of scripts within
BASINS. Users with programming experience may be able to develop scripts with little
assistance, while others will likely need additional guidance. Training for using scripts is outside
the scope of this document. The MapWindow web site (www.mapwindow.org) provides basic
materials on developing scripts.
Begin this tutorial by leaving the BASINS CAT form and returning to the main BASINS
form. Scripts written in .Net programming languages such as VB.Net or C# can be accessed and
run from the BASINS interface. Select the Scripts... option from the Plug-ins menu and the
MapWindow Scripts form will be displayed.
J9 MapWindow Scripts
File Execute Online Script Directory
D C1 H ~ - c G
~HE]
Help
Language
C VB.Net
C Ctt
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
S
9
10
11
12
13
jlL
-Output
(* Script
C Plug-in
Imports MapWindow.Interfaces
Imports MapUinGIS
Imports S ys t em.W i ndo us.F orms
Imports Microsoft.VisualBasic
Imports System
'Each script should (but doesn't have to) have a unique name.
Public Module MyExample
Public Sub Scr iptMain (ByRef m_MapWin As IMapTJin)
mapwinutility.logger.msg("This is a 3imple script to displ
mapwinut i1ity.logger.msg("Number of Layers: " £ m_Map¥in.L
End Sub
End Module
I
J
Ready
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This form provides an interface to open or save existing scripts or to start a new script
using the File menu or the icons below the menu bar. The Execute option allows for a script to
be run or for a script to be compiled as a plug-in for use in MapWindow/BASINS. Access to an
online repository of scripts is also provided through the Online Script Directory.
The code below shows a simple script that performs basic BASINS CAT functions.
After a number of declarations ("Const" and "Dim" statements), the WDM file is opened
(variable "lOriginalData") and the data set to be modified is set (variable "lOriginalPrecip").
The climate variations for this assessment are then specified (variable "lVariation"), including
the "Name," the "Operation" type, the "Min" and "Max" value, and the "Increment." In this
case, there will only be one variation, an increase of 10% (i.e., multiply by 1.1) to the historical
precipitation record. The assessment is then run with a call to "modCAT.ScenarioRun" and the
model output time series data are stored in the variable "IResults." Lastly, the script simply
reports the count of output time series. The script could readily be expanded to extract additional
and more detailed information from the output time series.
MapWindow Scripts
File Execute Online Script Directory
~ e> El ~ C
"Language
Help
C VB.Nel C C8
"Output —
<•" Script C Plug-in
[imports Hap Window. Interfaces
Imports MapWinUtility
Imports atcUtility
Imports atcData
Imports atcClimateAssessmentTool
Imports atcWDM
Module ClimateAssessmentFromScript
Private Const pTestPath As String = "D:\Basins\data\Climate"
Private Const pBaseName As String = "base"
Private Const pScenName As String = "scriptDemo"
Public Sub ScriptMain(ByRef aMapWin As IMapWin)
Dim IResults As New atcCollection
ChDriveDir(pTestPath)
Dim lOriginalData As New atcDataSourceWDM
lOriginalData.Open(pBaseName & ".wdm")
Dim lOriginalPrecip As atcTimeseries = lOriginalData.DataSets.FindData("ID",
"105").Item(0)
Dim lVariation As New atcVariation
Uith lVariation
.DataSets.Add(lOr iginalPrec ip)
.Name = "Adjust Precip"
.ComputationSource = New atcTimeseriesHath.atcTimeseriesHath
.Operation = "Multiply"
.Min = 1.1
.Max = 1.1
.Increment = 0.1
Dim IModifiedData As atcDataGroup = .Startlteration()
IResults = modCAT.ScenarioRun(pBaseName & ".uci", pScenName, lHodifiedData,
Logger.Dbg("AllDone:" & IResults.Count)
End Uith
End Sub
End Module
r", True, True, True)
Ready
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6. A CASE STUDY APPLICATION OF BASINS CAT IN Till MONOCACY RIVER
WATERSHED
This chapter presents a case study application of BASINS CAT assessing the potential
effects of climate change on the hydrology and water quality of a mid-Atlantic watershed.
BASINS CAT supports a wide range of assessment goals including simple screening studies,
representation of more complex scenarios based on climate modeling experiments, and
systematic sensitivity analyses of watershed endpoints to specific climate drivers. This case
study illustrates just one type of analysis and the data that can be generated using the BASINS
CAT. Accordingly, the presentation of results is limited to just a few illustrative examples of
analyses performed. Other applications of BASINS CAT could employ different methods for
creating scenarios, or focus on hydrologic, water quality, or biological endpoints not considered
here.
6.1. BACKGROUND AND GOALS
The Monocacy River flows from south-central Pennsylvania to central Maryland, and is
a tributary of the Potomac River and Chesapeake Bay (Figure 6-1). During the latter half of the
twentieth century, human activities within the Chesapeake Bay watershed resulted in severe
ecological impairment, principally due to nutrient pollution and associated reductions in
dissolved oxygen and water clarity. To address this problem, in 1983 a government partnership
called the Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) was established among Maryland, Virginia,
Pennsylvania, the District of Columbia, and the federal government with the goal of restoring
water quality and living resources throughout the Chesapeake Bay and tributaries.
Future climate change could impact the ability of the CBP to meet restoration goals, but
the nature and magnitude of impacts are not well understood (Pyke et al., 2008). The goal of
this study was to assess the potential magnitude of climate change impacts on nitrogen,
phosphorus, and sediment loading to the Chesapeake Bay. The study focuses on a single,
representative Chesapeake Bay subwatershed and the future year 2030. Nitrogen, phosphorus,
and sediment were selected as endpoints because of the influence these constituents have on
Chesapeake Bay dissolved oxygen, water clarity, and organisms such as crabs, fish, and
plankton. The planning horizon of 2030 was selected to be consistent with a concurrent CBP
effort assessing the impacts of land-use change on water quality. The results presented here,
however, do not consider land-use change.
The Monocacy watershed is 1,927 km2 in size, with approximately 60% in agriculture,
33% forested, and 7% urban. The city of Frederick, MD, and its suburbs are the largest urban
area within the watershed. The Monocacy is categorized as a Maryland Wild and Scenic River,
6-1
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but it has one of the greatest nonpoint source pollution problems in the state due in large part to
runoff from the 3,500 farms, livestock operations, and dairies in the watershed. A USGS stream
gage is located near the mouth of the river.
Scale in Miles
Figure 6-1. The Monocacy River watershed.
6.2. METHODS
The Monocacy assessment was conducted using BASINS CAT and the HSPF watershed
model to create and run multiple climate change scenarios. Climate change scenarios were
created by modifying hourly temperature and precipitation records for a 16-year period of
historical data, from 1984 to 2000, from eight NCDC weather stations located within or near the
watershed. As discussed previously, this delta change approach allows scenarios to be created
at multiple locations throughout the watershed (e.g., NCDC weather stations) while maintaining
the existing spatial correlation structure among neighboring locations.
HSPF was considered a good model for this study for two reasons. First, the influence
of climate change on watershed processes is complex, and the relatively detailed representation
6-2
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of watershed processes in HSPF was considered an advantage to adequately capture the system
sensitivities to changes in temperature and precipitation. This is particularly true given the
focus on the biologically reactive endpoints, nitrogen and phosphorus. Second, it was important
that the model used in this study be comparable with a model used by the CBP to assess other
program outcomes, the Phase 5 Community Watershed Model, which is based on HSPF. In this
study, to ensure consistency with CBP modeling practices, the Monocacy HSPF model in
BASINS was set up and parameterized using the same land use, BMP, and parameter values as
used by the Phase 5 Community Watershed Model.
6.2.1. Regional Climate Change Data
Climate change scenarios for this study were created based on climate model projection
data for the Monocacy Watershed acquired through Penn State University's Consortium of
Atlantic Regional Assessments project (CARA; http://www.cara.psu.edu/). CARA provides
spatially referenced data on projected changes in temperature and precipitation throughout the
mid-Atlantic region from climate modeling experiments using seven GCM models from the
IPCC Third Assessment Report (IPCC, 2001). Data is provided for each of the seven GCM
models, and for two future greenhouse gas emissions storylines, one moderately high (A2), and
one moderately low (B2), resulting in a total of 14 climate change scenarios. CARA data are
presented as future changes, or deltas, relative to the base period, 1971 to 2000. Data are
available for the future periods 2010 to 2039, 2040 to 2069, and 2070 to 2099, and are
summarized for each season of the year (Dec/Jan/Feb; Mar/Apr/May; Jun/Jul/Aug;
Sep/Oct/Nov). CARA data is interpolated spatially from the original GCM grid resolution to
1/8 degree resolution.
The set of CARA projection data captures a plausible range of future climate change in
the Monocacy Watershed. Scenarios based on these projections, in turn, were used to identify
the potential range of changes in nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment loads in the Monocacy
River. Note that the CARA web site also includes general information about climate change,
the use of climate change scenarios for assessing impacts, and land-use change for the
mid-Atlantic region. Additional information about the CARA data is available at
http://www.cara.psu.edu/climate/models.asp.
6.2.2. Scenario Analysis
Climate change scenarios were created and analyzed in two ways to address different
questions about system sensitivity to climate change. The first analysis used a set of synthetic
scenarios to gain a fundamental understanding of important system properties, e.g., thresholds
6-3
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and non-linear behaviors. Synthetic scenarios describe techniques where particular climatic
attributes are changed by a realistic but arbitrary amount, often according to a qualitative
interpretation of climate model simulations for a region (IPCC-TGICA, 2007). The results of
these types of analyses are particularly useful for providing insights about the type and amount
of change necessary to threaten a management target or push the system past a threshold. In
this study, a set of 42 synthetic scenarios were created and run with the HSPF model reflecting
different combinations of arbitrarily assigned changes in temperature and precipitation.
Baseline temperatures were adjusted by 0, 2, 4, 6, 8, and 10°F, and baseline precipitation
volume by -10, -5, 0, 5, 10, 15, and 20%. In this case, changes in precipitation were made by
adjusting all precipitation events in the 1984 to 2000 historical base period using a constant
multiplier. Although these scenarios assume arbitrary combinations of potential changes, the
ranges of temperature and precipitation change considered reflect projected changes for this
region by the end of the century from the CARA data set.
The second analysis in the Monocacy assessment used model-based climate change
scenarios created by applying the appropriate change statistics (deltas) from each CARA model
projection to an arbitrary base period of historical, hourly temperature and precipitation data
(1984 to 2000) from 8 NCDC weather stations used in the Monocacy simulation. Collectively,
these represent a set of internally consistent climate change scenarios reflecting different
assumptions about future greenhouse gas emissions and different GCM representations of the
climate system.
The projected seasonal changes in mean air temperature and precipitation totals relative
to the base period 1971 to 2000 were acquired for each of these 14 climate change scenarios in
the CARA data set for period 2010 to 2039 (the averaging period in the CARA data set closest
to the 2030 planning horizon of the CBP). The CARA data set does not provide any
information about changes in precipitation intensity. It is generally expected, however, that as
climate changes, a greater proportion of annual precipitation will occur in larger magnitude
events (IPCC, 2007). Accordingly, to capture a range of plausible changes in event intensity,
scenarios were created for this analysis by applying the projected seasonal changes from each
scenario in three ways: (1) as a constant multiplier applied equally to all events within the
specified season, (2) as a constant multiplier applied only to the largest 30% of events within
the specified season, and (3) as a constant multiplier applied only to the largest 10% of events
within the specified season. These 3 assumptions capture a plausible range of future changes in
the distribution of precipitation among different magnitude events based on observed trends
during the twentieth century (e.g., during this period there was a general trend throughout the
United States towards increases in the proportion of annual precipitation occurring in roughly
6-4
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the largest 30% magnitude events; Groisman et al., 2005). A total of 42 model-based scenarios
were thus created (coincidentally, the same number as in the first analysis) based on seasonally
variable climate change projections from the CARA data set (14 CARA scenarios and 3
assumptions per scenario for applying projected changes in precipitation).
Each of the 42 scenarios was created using BASINS CAT by specifying a set of
adjustments to historical temperature and precipitation time series for the base period, 1984 to
2000. More specifically, each scenario consisted of a set of four adjustments to the historical
temperature time series, one for each season of the year; and four adjustments to the historical
precipitation time series, one for each season of the year (expressed as a percent change) and
assumption about the distribution of precipitation changes among events.
The Monocacy assessment did not consider future changes in land use, sea level rise, or
other factors potentially affecting the Chesapeake Bay. All watershed simulations assumed
current land use conditions.
6.3. RESULTS
The purpose of this case study is to provide an example of the types of analyses
supported by BASINS CAT. Accordingly, this section does not provide a detailed discussion of
results and conclusions from the Monocacy assessment. The results presented here are for a
single endpoint, mean annual nitrogen loading, and include only a single graphic display of data
generated using each analyses discussed above. Other applications of BASINS CAT,
depending on the study goals, could involve other methods of analysis, and may address a range
of hydrologic, water quality, or biological endpoints.
6.3.1. Synthetic Scenarios
After completing a series of HSPF simulations using BASINS CAT, a summary of
results can be viewed by selecting the "Results Table" tab from the BASINS CAT opening
form. This data can be exported and used with any third-party database, spreadsheet, or plotting
package. In addition, the "Pivot Table" tab in BASINS CAT provides a powerful tool for
quickly exploring the response of any selected endpoint as a function of any two other variables.
For example, Figure 6-2 shows, in pivot table format, the response of mean annual nitrogen
loading in the Monocacy River to changes in mean annual temperature and precipitation based
on the analysis using synthetic scenarios.
6-5
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Climate Assessment Tool
File Edit Options Help
Climate Data | Assessment Endpoints | Results Table Pivot Table I
52.779
54.779
56.779
58.779
60.779
62.779
^_LQj_xJ
|AirTemp:Seg 1 Mean OBSERVED SEG1 ATMP#1,104|
HI
|Prec:seg1 Sum OBSERVED SEG1 HPRC#2,100
INitrogen-Total SumAnnual base R:9 N-TOT-OUT# AQ,AAA
dl
668.1
705.22
742.33
779.45
816.57
853.68 890.8
4,151,200
4,355,300
4,574,700
4,808,900
5,042,600
5,270,300 5,485,500
4,061,100
4,238,100
4,451,800
4,678,200
4,907,500
5,141,800 5,375,200
3,993,100
4,151,500
4,323,800
4,534,900
4,761,900
4,989,600 5,231,800
3,936,100
4,076,400
4,240,600
4,415,000
4,614,300
4,838,200 5,065,700
3,903,500
4,018,100
4,175,400
4,339,600
4,514,900
4,710,100 4,925,600
3,869,700
3,978,200
4,112,200
4,266,000
4,434,100
4,619,100 4,814,900
Figure 6-2 Pivot table showing the response of mean annual nitrogen
loading (pounds per year) in the Monocacy River to changes in mean annual
temperature and precipitation based on the analysis using synthetic
scenarios.
Figure 6-3 shows the same data contained in Figure 6-2 but in a different format. The
plot is based on output from 42 HSPF simulations generated using the automated (iterative) run
capability of the BASINS CAT. Contours were generated by interpolation from the original 42
points, or synthetic scenarios, evaluated. The plot illustrates graphically the changes in annual
nitrogen loads resulting from changes in precipitation and temperature. Nitrogen loads
generally increase or decrease with increasing and decreasing precipitation, respectively,
reflecting changes in runoff. Nitrogen loads decrease with increases in air temperature, most
likely a response to decreased runoff resulting from increased evapotranspiration. The
simulated change in nitrogen loads resulting from any combination of precipitation and
temperature change can be seen by moving from the star, which represents current climate,
along different trajectories within the plot. Generally, mean annual nitrogen loading is shown to
change about 1.1% per percent change in mean annual precipitation (relative to current
conditions), and about 2% per degree F change in mean annual air temperature. This type of
quantitative information can be developed for any endpoint of concern, and can be useful for
assessing the risk of climate change impacting a management target or goal (e.g., a target
nutrient load). It should be noted that BASINS CAT does not provide a direct capability for
making contour plots such as Figure 6-3. The contour plot shown here was created using a third
party plotting software (DPLOT) from tabular HSPF output data generated by BASINS CAT
(shown in the Results Table tab).
6-6
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ll 62 -
0
0)
1 60 -
-------
-------
range of potential changes in a key management target resulting from plausible future changes
in climate (in this case based on model projection data). Figure 6-4 was created using a third
party plotting software (DPLOT) from tabular HSPF output data generated by BASINS CAT
(shown in the Results Table tab).
6.4. CONCLUSIONS
The case study described in this chapter is a brief example of an analysis conducted
using BASINS CAT, assessing the sensitivity of a single water quality parameter, nitrogen, to a
range of plausible changes in climate. Results suggest that nitrogen loading is sensitive to
projected changes in climate in this watershed, although the direction of change is unclear due
to differences in projected future changes in precipitation. Similar analyses could be conducted
using the BASINS CAT tool assessing a wide range of user-specified climate change scenarios
and/or hydrologic and water quality endpoints.
6-9
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7. SUPPORTING RESOURCES
7.1. CLIMATE CHANGE DATA AND INFORMATION
Future climate change is expected to vary considerably in different regions of the
country. Selected sources of climate change information, data, and guidance concerning the use
of climate change data are listed below. Most of the sources listed below provide climate change
projections developed from climate modeling experiments using Global Climate Models (GCM)
or Regional Climate Models (RCM). Information from these and other sources may be used to
develop scenarios for different regions of the United States. Note that this is not an exhaustive
list. Information and guidance about climate change in different parts of the country can be
obtained from additional sources including government agencies, universities, and other groups.
Over time, additional information about climate change will become available as climate models
are improved, new modeling experiments are conducted, new monitoring data becomes
available, and research such as investigations of paleo-climate better reveal historical patterns of
climate variability and change.
IPCC Data Distribution Centre (DDC): http://www.ipcc-data.org/
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and
Intercomparison: http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/about ipcc.php
Lawrence Livermore National Lab oratory/Bureau of Reclamation/Santa Clara University:
http://gdo-dcp.ucllnl.org/downscaled cmip3 proiections/dcplnterface.html
North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP):
http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/data/index.html
Consortium of Atlantic Regional Assessments (CARA; mid-Atlantic U.S. region):
http://www.cara.psu.edu/climate/models.asp
University of Washington, Climate Impacts Group (northwest U.S. region):
http://www.cses.washington.edu/data/ipccar4/
7-1
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7.2. OTHER RESOURCES
A large and rapidly growing amount of information about climate change, climate change
impacts, and adaptation to climate change is becoming available. The list below provides a brief
listing of resources. This list is far from exhaustive, however, and is intended only as a starting
point for those interested in learning more about this issue.
The U.S. EPA's climate change web site provides a range of information about climate change
and potential climate change impacts, http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/
The U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) web site provides links to information and
products from the U.S. Global Change Research Program, http://www.climatescience.gov/
The NOAA Climate Program Office web site provides links to information and products from
NOAA, including links to the NOAA Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA)
projects, http://www.climate.noaa.gov/cpo_pa/risa/
The USGS climate change science web site provides access to a range of information about
climate change, climate change impacts, and adaptation to climate change.
http://geochange.er.usgs.gov/
The NASA climate change web site provides arrange of information about climate change.
http://climate.jpl.nasa.gov/
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) web site provides a wealth of scientific
information and products including links to the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report.
http://www.ipcc.ch/
The IPCC Task Group on Scenarios for Climate Impact Analysis gives guidance on developing
scenarios and conducting climate change impact assessments.
http://www.ipcc-data.org/guidelines/TGICA_guidance_sdciaa_v2_final.pdf
The California Climate Change Portal provides a wide range of information about climate
change, climate change impacts, and adaptation to climate change for the state of California.
http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/
The Consortium for Atlantic Regional Assessment (CARA) web site has a useful climate change
primer along with some climate change scenarios for the mid-Atlantic and northeastern US.
http://www.cara.psu.edu/
7-2
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REFERENCES
AQUA TERRA Consultants, and HydroQual, Inc. (2001) Modeling nutrient loads to long island
sound from Connecticut watersheds, and impacts of future buildout and management scenarios.
Prepared for CT Department of Environmental Protection. Hartford, CT. 138 pgs.
Bicknell, BR; Imhoff, JC; Kittle, JL, Jr; et al. (2005) Hydrological simulation program -
FORTRAN (HSPF). User's manual for release 12.2 U.S. EPA National Exposure Research
Laboratory, Athens, GA, in cooperation with U.S. Geological Survey, WRD, Reston, VA.
Clough, JS; Park, RA. (2006) AQUATOX (Release 3) Modeling environmental fate and
ecological effects in aquatic ecosystems, addendum to Release 2 & 2.1 Technical
Documentation. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC.
CCSP. (2003) Strategic plan for the U.S. climate change science program: a report by the
Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, final
report, July, 2003. Available online at
http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/stratplan2003/final/default.htm
Donigian, AS, Jr; Imhoff, JC; Bicknell, BR. (1983) Predicting water quality resulting from
agricultural nonpoint source pollution via simulation - HSPF. In: Schaller, FW; Baily, GW, eds.
Agricultural management and water quality. Ames, IA: Iowa State University Press; pp.
209-249.
Donigian, AS, Jr; Imhoff, JC; Bicknell, BR; Kittle, JL, Jr. (1984) Application guide for
hydrological simulation program - FORTRAN (HSPF). Office of Research and Development,
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Athens, GA, EPA/600/3-84/065.
Donigian, AS, Jr; Imhoff, JC; Kittle, Jr, JL. (1998) HSPFParm: an interactive database of HSPF
model parameters - Version 1.0. Office of Science and Technology, Office of Water, U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC.
Gleick, P; Adams, DB. (2000) Water: the potential consequences of climate variability and
change for water resources of the United States. Report of the Water Sector Assessment Team
of the National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change,
Pacific Institute, Oakland CA; 151 pgs.
Groisman, P; Knight, R; Easterling, D; et al. (2005) Trends in intense precipitation in the climate
record. J Climate 18:1326-1350
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