The
EPA Automotive
Trends Report
Greenhouse Gas Emissions,
Fuel Economy, and
Technology since 1975
United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
EPA-420-R-21-003 January 2021
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This technical report does not necessarily represent final EPA decisions, positions, or validation of compliance
data reported to EPA by manufacturers. It is intended to present technical analysis of issues using data
that are currently available and that may be subject to change. The purpose of the release of such reports
is to facilitate the exchange of technical information and to inform the public of technical developments.
These data reflect the most current available data. Historic data have been adjusted, when appropriate, to
reflect the result of compliance investigations by EPA or any other corrections necessary to maintain data
integrity. This edition of the report supersedes all previous versions.
The Department of Justice and EPA have reached a settlement with Mercedes based on the sale of certain
diesel vehicles equipped with devices to defeat the vehicles' emission control systems. This report includes
the original fuel economy and GHG certification values of these vehicles, as EPA believes this is a reason-
able representation of how these vehicles were expected to perform. The affected vehicles are certain
model year 2009 to 2016 diesel vehicles from Mercedes, and account for less than 1% of production in all
affected years. For more information about this settlement, please see www.epa.gov/enforcement/daimler-
ag-and-mercedes-benz-usa-llc-clean-air-act-civil-settlernent.
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Table off Contents
1. Introduction 1
A. What's New This Year 1
B. Manufacturers in this Report 2
C. Fuel Economy and C02 Metrics in this Report 3
2. Fleetwide Trends Overview 5
A. Overall Fuel Economy and C02 Trends 5
B. Manufacturer Fuel Economy and C02 Emissions 8
3. Vehicle Attributes 13
A. Vehicle Class and Type 13
B. Vehicle Weight 18
C. Vehicle Power 21
D. Vehicle Footprint 25
E. Summary 28
4. Vehicle Technology 35
A. Engines 37
B. Transmission and Drive Types 57
C. Technology Adoption 63
5. Manufacturer GHG Compliance 73
A. Footprint-Based C02 Standards 75
B. Model Year Performance 78
C. GHG Program Credits and Deficits 103
D. End of Year GHG Program Credit Balances 113
Appendices: Methods and Additional Data
A. Sources of Input Data
B. Harmonic Averaging of Fuel Economy Values
C. Fuel Economy and C02 Metrics
D. Historical Changes in the Database and Methodology
E. Electric Vehicle and Plug-In Hybrid Metrics
F. Authors and Acknowledgments
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List off Figures
Figure 2.1. Estimated Real-World Fuel Economy and C02 Emissions 5
Figure 2.2. Trends in Fuel Economy and C02 Emissions Since Model Year 1975 6
Figure 2.3. Distribution of New Vehicle C02 Emissions by Model Year 7
Figure 2.4. Manufacturer Estimated Real-World Fuel Economy and Tailpipe C02in Model Year 2014
and 2019 9
Figure 3.1. Regulatory Classes and Vehicle Types Used in This Report 14
Figure 3.2. Production Share and Estimated Real-World Fuel Economy 15
Figure 3.3. Vehicle Type Distribution by Manufacturer for Model Year 2019 16
Figure 3.4. Car-Truck Classification of SUVs with Inertia Weights of 4000 Pounds or Less 17
Figure 3.5. Average New Vehicle Weight by Vehicle Type 19
Figure 3.6. Inertia Weight Class Distribution by Model Year 20
Figure 3.7. Relationship of Inertia Weight and C02 Emissions 21
Figure 3.8. Average New Vehicle Horsepower by Vehicle Type 22
Figure 3.9. Horsepower Distribution by Model Year 23
Figure 3.10. Relationship of Horsepower and C02 Emissions 24
Figure 3.11. Calculated 0-to-60 Time by Vehicle Type 25
Figure 3.12. Footprint by Vehicle Type for Model Year 2008-2020 26
Figure 3.13. Footprint Distribution by Model Year 27
Figure 3.14. Relationship of Footprint and C02 Emissions 28
Figure 3.15. Relative Change in Fuel Economy, Weight, and Horsepower, since Model Year 1975 29
Figure 4.1. Vehicle Energy Flow 35
Figure 4.2. Manufacturer Use of Emerging Technologies for Model Year 2020 36
Figure 4.3. Production Share by Engine Technology 38
Figure 4.4. Gasoline Engine Production Share by Number of Cylinders 40
Figure 4.5. Percent Change for Specific Gasoline Engine Metrics 42
Figure 4.6. Engine Metrics for Different Gasoline Technology Packages 44
Figure 4.7. Gasoline Turbo Engine Production Share by Vehicle Type 46
Figure 4.8. Gasoline Turbo Engine Production Share by Number of Cylinders 46
Figure 4.9. Distribution of Gasoline Turbo Vehicles by Displacement and Horsepower, Model Year
2011, 2014, and 2019 47
Figure 4.10. Gasoline Hybrid Engine Production Share by Vehicle Type 49
Figure 4.11. Gasoline Hybrid Engine Production Share by Number of Cylinders 49
Figure 4.12. Hybrid Real-World Fuel Economy Distribution, Cars Only 50
Figure 4.13. Production Share of EVs, PHEVs, and FCVs, Model Year 1995-2020 52
Figure 4.14. Charge Depleting Range and Fuel Economy for EVs and PHEVs 53
Figure 4.15. Diesel Engine Production Share by Vehicle Type 55
Figure 4.16. Diesel Engine Production Share by Number of Cylinders 55
Figure 4.17. Percent Change for Specific Diesel Engine Metrics 56
Figure 4.18. Transmission Production Share 58
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Figure 4.19. Average Number of Transmission Gears 60
Figure 4.20. Comparison of Manual and Automatic Transmission Real-World Fuel Economy for
Comparable Vehicles 60
Figure 4.21. Front-, Rear-, and Four-Wheel Drive Production Share 62
Figure 4.22. Industry-Wide Car Technology Penetration after First Significant Use 64
Figure 4.23. Manufacturer Specific Technology Adoption over Time for Key Technologies 66
Figure 4.24. WT Adoption Details by Manufacturer 68
Figure 4.25. Five-Year Change in Light Duty Vehicle Technology Production Share 69
Figure 5.1. The GHG Compliance Process 73
Figure 5.2. 2012-2019 Model Year C02 Footprint Target Curves 75
Figure 5.3. Changes in "2-Cycle" Tailpipe C02 Emissions, Model Year 2012 to 2019 (g/mi) 80
Figure 5.4. Model Year 2019 Production of EVs, PHEVs, and FCVs 82
Figure 5.5. Model Year 2019 Advanced Technology Credits by Manufacturer 83
Figure 5.6. Production of FFVs, Model Year 2012-2019 85
Figure 5.7. FFV Credits by Model Year 85
Figure 5.8. HFO-1234yf Adoption by Manufacturer 87
Figure 5.9. Fleetwide A/C Credits by Credit Type 89
Figure 5.10. Total A/C Credits by Manufacturer for Model Year 2019 89
Figure 5.11. Off-Cycle Menu Technology Adoption by Manufacturer, Model Year 2019 91
Figure 5.12. Total Off-Cycle Credits by Manufacturer for Model Year 2019 98
Figure 5.13. Performance and Standards by Manufacturer, Model Year 2019 104
Figure 5.14. Early Credits by Manufacturer 110
Figure 5.15. Total Credits Transactions through Model Year 2019 111
Figure 5.16. Manufacturer Credit Balance After Model Year 2019 115
Figure 5.17. Industry Performance and Standards, Credit Generation and Use 119
List of Tables
Table 1.1. Model Year 2019 Manufacturer Definitions 3
Table 1.2. Fuel Economy and C02 Metrics Used in this Report 4
Table 2.1. Production, Estimated Real-World C02, and Fuel Economy for Model Year 1975-2020 10
Table 2.2. Manufacturers and Vehicles with the Highest Fuel Economy, by Year 11
Table 2.3. Manufacturer Estimated Real-World Fuel Economy and C02 Emissions for Model Year
2018-2020 12
Table 3.1. Vehicle Attributes by Model Year 30
Table 3.2. Estimated Real-World Fuel Economy and C02 by Vehicle Type 31
Table 3.3. Model Year 2019 Vehicle Attributes by Manufacturer 32
Table 3.4. Model Year 2019 Estimated Real-World Fuel Economy and C02 by Manufacturer and
Vehicle Type 33
Table 3.5. Footprint by Manufacturer for Model Year 2018-2020 (ft2) 34
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Table 4.1. Production Share by Engine Technologies 70
Table 4.2. Production Share by Transmission Technologies 71
Table 4.3. Production Share by Drive Technology 72
Table 5.1. Manufacturer Footprint and Standards for Model Year 2019 77
Table 5.2. Production Multipliers by Model Year 81
Table 5.3. Model Year 2019 Off-Cycle Technology Credits from the Menu, by Manufacturer and
Technology (g/mi) 95
Table 5.4. Model Year 2019 Off-Cycle Technology Credits from an Alternative Methodology, by
Manufacturer and Technology (g/mi) 97
Table 5.5. Manufacturer Performance in Model Year 2019, All (g/mi) 100
Table 5.6. Industry Performance by Model Year, All (g/mi) 100
Table 5.7. Manufacturer Performance in Model Year 2019, Car (g/mi) 101
Table 5.8. Industry Performance by Model Year, Car (g/mi) 101
Table 5.9. Manufacturer Performance in Model Year 2019, Truck (g/mi) 102
Table 5.10. Industry Performance by Model Year, Truck (g/mi) 102
Table 5.11. Credits Earned by Manufacturers in Model Year 2019, All 106
Table 5.12. Total Credits Earned in Model Years 2009-2019, All 106
Table 5.13. Credits Earned by Manufacturers in Model Year 2019, Car 107
Table 5.14. Total Credits Earned in Model Years 2009-2019, Car 107
Table 5.15. Credits Earned by Manufacturers in Model Year 2019, Truck 108
Table 5.16. Total Credits Earned in Model Years 2009-2019, Truck 108
Table 5.17. Example of a Deficit Offset with Credits from Previous Model Years 113
Table 5.18. Final Credit Balance by Manufacturer for Model Year 2019 (Mg) 116
Table 5.19. Distribution of Credits by Expiration Date (Mg) 117
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1. Introduction
This annual report is part of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) commitment
to provide the public with information about new light-duty vehicle greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions, fuel economy, technology data, and auto manufacturers' performance in
meeting the agency's GHG emissions standards.
EPA has collected data on every new light-duty vehicle model sold in the United States
since 1975, either from testing performed by EPA at the National Vehicle Fuel and
Emissions Laboratory in Ann Arbor, Michigan, or directly from manufacturers using official
EPA test procedures. These data are collected to support several important national
programs, including EPA criteria pollutant and GHG standards, the U.S. Department of
Transportation's National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) Corporate
Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards, and vehicle Fuel Economy and Environment
labels. This expansive data set allows EPA to provide a uniquely comprehensive analysis of
the automotive industry over the last 45 years.
A. What's New This Year
This report is updated each year to reflect the most recent data, best methodology, and
any relevant regulatory changes. This version of the report contains the most up to date
data available to EPA for all model years and supersedes all previous reports. The major
updates for this year are as follows:
• EPA and NHTSA finalized the Safer Affordable Fuel-Efficient (SAFE) Vehicles Rule in
April of 2020, which established new light-duty GHG standards for model years 2021-
2026. This report includes compliance data through model year 2019 and does not
generally discuss future model years. While this report has been updated to reflect
regulatory changes due to the SAFE rule, the changes are minor.
• EPA also finalized technical amendments to the light-duty GHG rules that correct
calculations used to determine the amount of credits created through the sale of
advanced technology vehicles, such as electric vehicles. The calculations in this report
reflect the methodology defined in the final technical amendment.
• Small Volume Manufacturers (SVMs) are included in discussion of the light duty GHG
program (section 5), following the finalization of alternative standards for this group
of manufacturers. Previous reports had omitted these manufacturers as they did not
have final standards.
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• This report shows projected model year 2020 data that was generally provided to EPA
by manufacturers before the outbreak of COVID-19, and any associated impacts on
the automobile industry. Therefore, the projected model year 2020 data may change
significantly before being finalized.
• EPA has added detailed compliance data, covering all years of the light-duty GHG
standards, to the EPA Automotive Trends website. We encourage readers to visit
https://www.epa.gov/automotive-trends and explore the data. EPA will continue to
add content and tools on the web to allow transparent access to public data.
li, Manufacturers in this Report
The underlying data for this report include every new light-duty vehicle offered for sale in
the United States. These data are presented by manufacturer throughout this report, using
model year 2019 manufacturer definitions determined by EPA and NHTSA for
implementation of the GHG emission standards and CAFE program. For simplicity, figures
and tables in the executive summary and in Sections 1 -4 show only the top 14
manufacturers, by production. These manufacturers produced at least 125,000 vehicles
each in the 2019 model year and accounted for approximately 98% of all production. The
compliance discussion in Section 5 includes all manufacturers, regardless of production
volume, and for the first time this year provides detailed data for small volume
manufacturers Aston Martin, Ferrari, Lotus, and McLaren. Table 1.1 lists all manufacturers
that produced vehicles in the U.S. for model year 2019, including their associated makes,
and their categorization for this report. Only vehicle brands produced in model year 2019
are shown in this table; however, this report contains data on many other manufacturers
and brands that have produced vehicles for sale in the U.S. since 1975.
When a manufacturer grouping changes under the GHG and CAFE programs, EPA applies
the new manufacturer definitions to all prior model years for the analysis of estimated real-
world CO2 emission and fuel economy trends in Sections 1 through 4 of this report. This
maintains consistent manufacturer and make definitions over time, which enables better
identification of long-term trends. However, the compliance data that are discussed in
Section 5 of this report maintain the previous manufacturer definitions where necessary to
preserve the integrity of compliance data as accrued.
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Table 1.1. Model Year 2013 Manufacturer Definitions
Manufacturer
Makes in the U.S. Market
BMW
BMW, Mini, Rolls Royce
FCA
Alfa Romeo, Chrysler, Dodge, Fiat, Jeep, Maserati, Ram
Ford
Ford, Lincoln, Roush, Shelby
GM
Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC
V)
Honda
Acura, Honda
Q)
Hyundai
Genesis, Hyundai
V
00
-M
U
Kia
Kia
cc
_i
£
3
Mazda
Mazda
C
(Z
Mercedes
Maybach, Mercedes, Smart
2
Nissan
Subaru
Tesla
Toyota
Volkswagen
Infiniti, Nissan
Subaru
Tesla
Lexus, Scion, Toyota
Audi, Bentley, Bugatti, Lamborghini, Porsche, Volkswagen
V)
Jaguar Land Rover
Jaguar, Land Rover
Q)
Mitsubishi
Mitsubishi
Q)
.C
-M
U
Volvo
Polestar, Volvo
-M
O
3
Aston Martin*
Aston Martin
C
CO
Ferrari*
Ferrari
2
McLaren*
McLaren
* Small Volume Manufacturers
C. Fuel Economy and CO2 Metrics in this Report
All data in this report for model years 1975 through 2019 are final and based on official
data submitted to EPA and NHTSA as part of the regulatory process. In some cases, this
report will show data for model year 2020, which are preliminary and based on data
provided to EPA by automakers prior to the model year, including projected production
volumes. All data in this report are based on production volumes delivered for sale in the
U.S. by model year. The model year production volumes may vary from other publicized
data based on calendar year sales. The report does not examine future model years, and
past performance does not necessarily predict future industry trends.
The carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and fuel economy data in this report fall into one of
two categories based on the purpose of the data and the subsequent required emissions
test procedures. The first category is compliance data, which is measured using laboratory
tests required by law for CAFE and adopted by EPA for GHG compliance. Compliance data
are measured using EPA city and highway test procedures (the "2-cycle" tests), and
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fleetwide averages are calculated by weighting the city and highway test results by 55% and
45%, respectively. These procedures are required for compliance; however, they no longer
accurately reflect real-world driving. Compliance data may also encompass optional
performance credits and adjustments that manufacturers can use towards meeting their
emissions standards.
The second category is estimated real-world (previously called "adjusted") data, which is
measured using additional laboratory tests to capture a wider range of operating
conditions (including hot and cold weather, higher speeds, and faster accelerations)
encountered by an average driver. This expanded set of tests is referred to as "5-cycle"
testing. City and highway results are weighted 43% city and 57% highway, consistent with
fleetwide driver activity data. The city and highway values are the same values found on
new vehicle fuel economy labels, however the label combined value is weighted 55% city
and 45% highway. Unlike compliance data, the method for calculating real-world data has
evolved over time, along with technology and driving habits.
Table 1.2. Fuel Economy arid CO2 Metrics Used in this Report
Current
C02 and Fuel Economy
City/Highway
Current Test
Data Category
Purpose
Weighting
Basis
Compliance
Basis for manufacturer
compliance with standards
55% / 45%
2-cycle
Estimated Real-World
("adjusted" in previous
reports)
Best estimate of real-world
performance
43% / 57%
5-cycle
This report will show estimated real-world data except for the discussion specific to the
GHG regulations in Section 5 and Executive Summary Figures ES-6 through ES-8. The
compliance CO2 data must not be compared to the real-world C02data presented
elsewhere in this report. Appendices C and D present a more detailed discussion of the fuel
economy and CO2 data used in this report.
This report does not provide data about NHTSA's CAFE program. For more information
about CAFE and manufacturer compliance with the CAFE fuel economy standards, see the
CAFE Public Information Center, which can be accessed at
https://one.nhtsa.gov/cafe pic/CAFE PIC Home.htm.
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2. Fleetwide Trends Overview
The automotive industry has made strong progress towards lower tailpipe CO2 emissions
and higher fuel economy in recent years. This section provides an update on the estimated
real-world tailpipe CO2 emissions and fuel economy for the overall fleet, and for
manufacturers based on final model year 2019 data. The unique, historical data on which
this report is based also provide an important backdrop for evaluating the more recent
performance of the industry. Using that data, this section will also explore basic fleetwide
trends in the automotive industry since EPA began collecting data in model year 1975.
A. Overall Fuel Economy and CO2 Trends
In model year 2019, the average
estimated real-world CO2 emission
rate for all new vehicles increased
slightly (less than 1 %) from the record
low achieved in model year 2018. The
new vehicle emission rate increased 3
g/mi to 356 g/mi. Fuel economy
decreased by 0.2 miles per gallon to
24.9 mpg, or slightly below the record
high achieved in model year 20181.
Since 2004, CO2emissions have
decreased 23%, or 105 g/mi, and fuel
economy has increased 29%, or 5.6
mpg. Over that time, CO2 emissions and
fuel economy have improved in twelve
out of fifteen years. The trends in CO2
emissions and fuel economy since 1975
are shown in Figure 2.1.
Preliminary data suggest improvements
in model year 2020. Average estimated
real-world CO2emissions are projected
1 EPA generally uses unrounded values to calculate values in the text, figures, and tables in this report. This
approach results in the most accurate data but may lead to small apparent discrepancies due to rounding.
Figure 2.1. Estimated Real-World Fuel
Economy and CO2 Emissions
o
CL
>.
E
o
cz
o
o
LU
"5
3
LL
33
o
ns
a:
24
20
16
24.9 MPG
MY 2019
E
01
10
c
o
10
w
E
LU
0"
o
"D
TO
O)
cm
700
600
500
400
356 g/mi
MY 2019
1975
1985
1995
2005
2015
2025
Model Year
5
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to fall 12 g/mi to 344 g/rni and fuel economy is projected to increase 0.8 mpg to 25.7 mpg.
If achieved, these values will be record low average new vehicle CO2 emissions and record
high fuel economy. The preliminary model year 2020 data are based on production
estimates provided to EPA by manufacturers months before the vehicles go on sale. The
data are a useful indicator, however there is always uncertainty associated with such
projections, and we caution the reader against focusing only on these data. Projected data
are shown in Figure 2.1 as a dot because the values are based on manufacturer projections
rather than final data.
While the most recent annual changes often receive the most public attention, the greatest
value of the Trends database is to document long-term trends. The magnitude of changes
in annual CO2 emissions and fuel economy tend to be small relative to longer, multi-year
trends. Figure 2.2 shows fleetwide estimated real-world CO2 emissions and fuel economy
for model years 1975-2019. Over this timeframe there have been three basic phases: 1) a
rapid improvement of CO2 emissions and fuel economy between 1975 and 1987, 2) a
period of slowly increasing CO2 emissions and decreasing fuel economy through 2004, and
3) decreasing CO? emissions and increasing fuel economy through the current model year.
Figure 2.2. Trends in Fuel Economy and CO2 Emissions Since Model Year 1975
1975 to 1987
+68%
2005 to 2019
+29%
+14%
Model Year
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Vehicle CO2 emissions and fuel economy are inversely related for gasoline and diesel
vehicles, but not for electric vehicles. Since gasoline and diesel vehicles have made up the
vast majority of vehicle production since 1975, Figure 2.2 shows an inverted, but highly
correlated relationship between CO2 emissions and fuel economy. Electric vehicles, which
account for a small but growing portion of vehicle production, have zero tailpipe CO2
emissions, regardless of fuel economy (as measured in miles per gallon equivalent, or
mpge). If electric vehicles continue to capture a larger market share, the overall
relationship between fuel economy and tailpipe C02 emissions will change.
Another way to look at CO2 emissions over time is to examine how the distribution of new
vehicle emission rates have changed. Figure 2.3 shows the distribution of real-world
tailpipe CO2 emissions for all vehicles produced within each model year. Half of the vehicles
produced each year are clustered within a small band around the median CO2 emission
rate, as shown in blue. The remaining vehicles show a much wider spread, especially in the
best and worst 5% of production each year. The lowest C02-emitting vehicles have all been
hybrids or electric vehicles since the first hybrid was introduced in model year 2000. The
highest C02-emitting vehicles are generally low volume performance vehicles or large
trucks.
Figure 2.3. Distribution of New Vehicle CO2 Emissions by Model Year2
Worst Vehicle
Worst 5%
Bottom
25%
50% of Vehicles
Best Vehicle
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Model Year
2 Electric vehicles prior to 2011 are not included in this figure due to limited data. However, those vehicles were
available in small numbers only.
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It is important to note that the methodology used in this report for calculating estimated
real-world fuel economy and CO2 emission values has changed over time to reflect
changing vehicle technology and operation. For example, the estimated real-world fuel
economy for a 1980s vehicle is somewhat higher than it would be if the same vehicle were
being produced today. These changes are small for most vehicles, but larger for very high
fuel economy vehicles. See Appendix C and D for a detailed explanation of fuel economy
metrics and their changes over time.
B. Manufacturer Fuel Economy and CO2
lumssions
Along with the overall industry, most manufacturers have improved new vehicle CO2
emission rates and fuel economy in recent years. Manufacturer trends over the last five
years are shown in Figure 2.4. This span covers the approximate length of a vehicle
redesign cycle, and it is likely that most vehicles have undergone design changes in this
period, resulting in a more accurate depiction of recent manufacturer trends than focusing
on a single year. Changes over this time period can be attributed to both vehicle design
and changing vehicle production trends.
Over the last five years, ten of the fourteen largest manufacturers selling vehicles in the
U.S. decreased new vehicle estimated real-world CO2 emission rates. Between model years
2014 and 2019, Kia achieved the largest reduction in CO2 emissions, at 31 g/mi, followed by
Honda and Hyundai. Tesla was unchanged because their all-electric fleet produces no
tailpipe CO2 emissions. Three manufacturers increased new vehicle CO2 emission rates;
Mazda had the largest increase, at 13 g/mi, followed by General Motors (GM) and Ford.
Eleven of the fourteen largest manufacturers increased fuel economy over the same
period. Tesla had the largest increase in fuel economy, due mostly to the introduction of
the Model 3 in model year 2017. The Model 3 is now Tesla's most efficient and highest
production vehicle. Of the remaining manufacturers, Kia had the largest increase in fuel
economy, again followed by Honda and Hyundai. Fuel economy did in fact increase slightly
for VW, although the small increase is not visible on Figure 2.4. Fuel economy fell for three
manufacturers; Mazda had the largest drop in fuel economy, followed by GM and Ford.
For model year 2019 alone, Tesla's all-electric fleet had by far the lowest tailpipe CO2
emissions and highest fuel economy of all large manufacturers. Tesla was followed by
Honda, and Hyundai. FCA had the highest new vehicle average CO2 emissions and lowest
fuel economy of the large manufacturers in model year 2019, followed by GM and Ford.
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Figure 2.4, Manufacturer Estimated Real-World Fuel Economy and Tailpipe CO2 in Model Year 2014 and 2019
Fuel Economy (MPG), 2014 - 2019 C02 Emissions (g/mi), 2014 - 2019
Tesla
—I—
45
Honda
Hyundai
Subaru
Kia
Mazda
Nissan
BMW
VW
Toyota
Mercedes
Ford
GM
FCA
All Manufacturers
90.2 ¦
70
95
23.1 —*>4
22.5 <22.7
22.5 <22.1
20.7 -~ 21.2
24.1
20
25
25
3.7
27.0-
-~28.9
27. 2 ~28.5
27. 3 ~28.4
7 ~28.1
27.8 < 29.0
26.7 ~ 27.0
26.1 ~26.2
26.1 ~ 26.1
4-~25.8
24.9
24
28
¦~118
120
50
100
150
200
OUI ™
312^— 325
oh ^ <¦>
c
301
3 ~ 320
329 < 332
337 <¦ 341
338 <— 3
345
O
48
350
37
—387
391 ~ 395
391 ~ 395
418 ¦<—428
356
<—
369
32
300
350
400
450
9
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Table 2.1. Production, Estimated Real-World CO2, and Fuel Economy for Model Year 1975-2020
Production
Real-World
Real-World
Production
Real-World
Real-World
Model Year
(000)
C02 (g/mi)
FE(MPG)
Model Year
(000)
C02 (g/mi)
FE(MPG)
1975
10,224
681
13.1
2000
16,571
450
19.8
1976
12,334
625
14.2
2001
15,605
453
19.6
1977
14,123
590
15.1
2002
16,115
457
19.5
1978
14,448
562
15.8
2003
15,773
454
19.6
1979
13,882
560
15.9
2004
15,709
461
19.3
1980
11,306
466
19.2
2005
15,892
447
19.9
1981
10,554
436
20.5
2006
15,104
442
20.1
1982
9,732
425
21.1
2007
15,276
431
20.6
1983
10,302
426
21.0
2008
13,898
424
21.0
1984
14,020
424
21.0
2009
9,316
397
22.4
1985
14,460
417
21.3
2010
11,116
394
22.6
1986
15,365
407
21.8
2011
12,018
399
22.3
1987
14,865
405
22.0
2012
13,449
377
23.6
1988
15,295
407
21.9
2013
15,198
368
24.2
1989
14,453
415
21.4
2014
15,512
369
24.1
1990
12,615
420
21.2
2015
16,739
360
24.6
1991
12,573
418
21.3
2016
16,278
359
24.7
1992
12,172
427
20.8
2017
17,016
357
24.9
1993
13,211
426
20.9
2018
16,259
353
25.1
1994
14,125
436
20.4
2019
16,139
356
24.9
1995
15,145
434
20.5
2020 (prelim)
344
25.7
1996
13,144
435
20.4
1997
14,458
441
20.2
1998
14,456
442
20.1
1999
15,215
451
19.7
To explore this data in more depth, please see the report website at https://www.epa.gov/automotive-trends.
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Table 2.2, Manufacturers and Vehicles with the Highest Fuel Economy, by Year
Overall Vehicle with Gasoline (Non-Hybrid) Vehicle
Manufacturer
Manufacturer
Highest Fuel Economy4
with Highest Fuel Economy
with Highest
with Lowest
Real-
Real-
Fuel Economy3
Fuel Economy
World FE
Engine
World FE
Model Year
(mpg)
(mpg)
Vehicle
(mpg)
Type
Gasoline Vehicle
(mpg)
1975
Honda
Ford
Honda Civic
28.3
Gas
Honda Civic
28.3
1980
VW
Ford
VW Rabbit
40.3
Diesel
Nissan 210
36.1
1985
Honda
Mercedes
GM Sprint
49.6
Gas
GM Sprint
49.6
1990
Hyundai
Mercedes
GM Metro
53.4
Gas
GM Metro
53.4
1995
Honda
FCA
Honda Civic
47.3
Gas
Honda Civic
47.3
2000
Hyundai
FCA
Honda Insight
57.4
Hybrid
GM Metro
39.4
2005
Honda
Ford
Honda Insight
53.3
Hybrid
Honda Civic
35.1
2006
Mazda
Ford
Honda Insight
53.0
Hybrid
Toyota Corolla
32.3
2007
Toyota
Mercedes
Toyota Prius
46.2
Hybrid
Toyota Yaris
32.6
2008
Hyundai
Mercedes
Toyota Prius
46.2
Hybrid
Smart Fortwo
37.1
2009
Toyota
FCA
Toyota Prius
46.2
Hybrid
Smart Fortwo
37.1
2010
Hyundai
Mercedes
Honda FCX
60.2
FCV
Smart Fortwo
36.8
2011
Hyundai
Mercedes
BMW Active E
100.6
EV
Smart Fortwo
35.7
2012
Hyundai
FCA
Nissan-i-MiEV
109.0
EV
Toyota iQ
36.8
2013
Hyundai
FCA
Toyota IQ
117.0
EV
Toyota iQ
36.8
2014
Mazda
FCA
BMW i3
121.3
EV
Mitsubishi Mirage
39.5
2015
Mazda
FCA
BMW i3
121.3
EV
Mitsubishi Mirage
39.5
2016
Mazda
FCA
BMW i3
121.3
EV
Mazda 2
37.1
2017
Honda
FCA
Hyundai loniq
132.6
EV
Mitsubishi Mirage
41.5
2018
Tesla
FCA
Hyundai loniq
132.6
EV
Mitsubishi Mirage
41.5
2019
Tesla
FCA
Hyundai loniq
132.6
EV
Mitsubishi Mirage
41.6
2020 (prelim)
Tesla
FCA
Tesla Model 3 SR+
138.6
EV
Mitsubishi Mirage
40.1
3 Manufacturers below the 125,000 threshold for "large" manufacturers are excluded in years they did not meet the threshold.
4 Vehicles are shown based on estimated real-world fuel economy as calculated for this report. These values will differ from values found on the fuel
economy labels at the time of sale. For more information on fuel economy metrics see Appendix C.
11
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Table 2.3, Manufacturer Estimated Real-World Fuel Economy and CO2 Emissions for Model Ytw 2018-2020
MY 2018 Final MY 2019 Final MY2020 Preliminary
FE Change C02 Change
Real-World
Real-World
Real-
from
Real-World
from
Real-World
Real-World
FE
C02
World FE
MY 2018
C02
MY 2018
FE
C02
Manufacturer
(mpg)
(g/mi)
(mpg)
(mpg)
(g/mi)
(g/mi)
(mpg)
(g/mi)
BMW
26.0
339
26.2
0.2
337
-2
25.5
346
FCA
21.7
409
21.2
-0.5
418
9
21.8
408
Ford
22.4
397
22.5
0.1
395
-2
23.3
381
GM
23.0
386
22.5
-0.5
395
9
22.8
391
Honda
30.0
296
28.9
-1.1
307
12
29.7
299
Hyundai
28.6
311
28.5
0.0
311
-1
28.9
306
Kia
27.8
319
28.1
0.3
316
-4
27.3
324
Mazda
28.7
310
27.8
-0.9
320
10
27.6
323
Mercedes
23.5
377
23.7
0.2
374
-3
23.9
372
Nissan
27.1
327
27.0
-0.2
329
2
27.4
323
Subaru
28.7
310
28.4
-0.3
312
3
28.3
313
Tesla
113.7
0
118.0
4.3
0
0
119.1
0
Toyota
25.5
348
25.8
0.3
345
-3
26.2
339
VW
24.6
361
26.1
1.5
338
-23
24.4
360
All Manufacturers
25.1
353
24.9
-0.2
356
3
25.7
344
To explore this data in more depth, please see the report website at https://www.epa.gov/automotive-trends.
12
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3. Vehicle Attributes
Vehicle CO2 emissions and fuel economy are strongly influenced by vehicle design
parameters, including weight, power, acceleration, and size. In general, vehicles that are
larger, heavier, and more powerful typically have lower fuel economy and higher CO2
emissions than other comparable vehicles. This section focuses on several key vehicle
design attributes that impact CO2 emissions and fuel economy and evaluates the impact of
a changing automotive marketplace on overall fuel economy.
A. Vehicle Class and Type
Manufacturers offer a wide variety of light-duty vehicles in the United States. Under the
CAFE and GHG regulations, new vehicles are separated into two distinct regulatory classes,
cars and trucks, and each vehicle class has separate GHG and fuel economy standards.
Vehicles that weigh more than 6,000 pounds gross vehicle weight5 (GVW) or have four-
wheel drive and meet various off-road requirements, such as ground clearance, qualify as
trucks. Vehicles that do not meet these requirements are considered cars.
Pickup trucks, vans, and minivans are all considered trucks under the regulatory
definitions, while sedans, coupes, and wagons are generally classified as cars. Sport utility
vehicles (SUVs), fall into both categories. Based on the CAFE and GHG regulatory
definitions, all two-wheel drive SUVs under 6,000 pounds GVW are classified as cars, while
most SUVs that have four-wheel drive or are above 6,000 pounds GVW are considered
trucks. SUV models that are less than 6,000 pounds GVW can have both car and truck
variants, with two-wheel drive versions classified as cars and four-wheel drive versions
classified as trucks. As the fleet has changed over time, the line drawn between car and
truck classes has also evolved. This report uses the current regulatory car and truck
definitions, and these changes have been propagated back throughout the historical data.
This report further separates the car and truck regulatory classes into five vehicle type
categories based on their body style classifications under the fuel economy labeling
program. The regulatory car class is divided into two vehicle types: sedan/wagon and car
SUV. The sedan/wagon vehicle type includes minicompact, subcompact, compact, midsize,
large, and two-seater cars, hatchbacks, and station wagons. Vehicles that are SUVs under
the labeling program and cars under the CAFE and GHG regulations are classified as car
SUVs in this report. The truck class is divided into three vehicle types: pickup, minivan/van,
5 Gross vehicle weight is the combined weight of the vehicle, passengers, and cargo of a fully loaded vehicle.
13
-------
and truck SUV. Vehicles that are SUVs under the labeling program and trucks under the
CAFE and GHG regulations are classified as truck SUVs. Figure 3.1 shows the two regulatory
classes and five vehicle types used in this report. The distinction between these five vehicle
types is important because different vehicle types have different design objectives, and
different challenges and opportunities for improving fuel economy and reducing CO2
emissions.
Figure 3.1. Regulatory Classes and Vehicle Types Used in This Report
Regulatory Class Vehicle Type
Truck
Car
Light-Duty
Vehicles
Sedan/Wagon
Car SUV
Truck SUV
Minivan/Van
Pickup
Fuel Economy and CO2 by Vehicle Type
The production volume of the different vehicle types has changed significantly over time.
Figure 3.2 shows the production shares of each of the five vehicle types since model year
1975. The overall new vehicle market continues to move away from the sedan/wagon
vehicle type towards a combination of truck SUVs, car SUVs, and pickups. Sedans/wagons
were the dominant vehicle type in 1975, when more than 80% of vehicles produced were
sedans/wagons. Since then, their production share has generally been falling, and by
model year 2019 sedans/wagons captured a record low 33% of the market, or far less than
half of the market share they held in model year 1975.
Vehicles that could be classified as a car SUV or truck SUV were a very small part of the
production share in 1975 but are now approaching half of the vehicle production share. By
model year 2019, truck SUVs reached a record high 37% of production and car SUVs
reached a record high of 12% of production. The production share of pickups has
fluctuated over time, peaking at 19% in 1994 and then falling to 10% in 2012. Pickups have
14
-------
increased in recent years to 16% of the market. Minivan/vans captured less than 5% of the
market in 1975, increased to 11% in modei year 1995 but have fallen since to 3% of vehicle
production.
In model year 2019, 44% of the fleet were cars and 56% were trucks. This was the highest
percentage of trucks on record and a significant change from 1975. In Figure 3.2, the
dashed line between the car SUVs and truck SUVs shows the split in car and truck
regulatory class.
Figure 3.2. Production Share and Estimated Real-World Fuel Economy
100%-
75%
a:
30-
i
30.9
20-
10
30-
in*
27.5
10,
30
20-
I
23.5
10.
30
20-
—i»
22.4
10
30-
10.
19.0
1975 1 985 1 995 2005 2015
Model Year
Sedan/
Wagon
Car
SUV
Truck
SUV
Minivan/
V&n,
Pickup
o
Figure 3.2 also shows estimated real-world fuel economy for each vehicle type since 1975.
Three of the five vehicle types, sedan/wagons, car SUVs, and truck SUVs, are at record low
CO2 emissions and record high fuel economy. Truck SUVs had the largest year-over-year
improvements in model year 2019, improving fuel economy by 0.4 mpg, followed by car
SUVs (up 0.2 mpg) and sedans/wagons (up 0.1 mpg). Pickups and minivans had a small
drop in fuel economy (down 0.1 mpg and 0.3 mpg, respectively), but remain close to record
high fuel economy and record low CO2 emissions set in model year 2018. All the vehicle
types, except for pickups, now achieve fuel economy more than double what they achieved
in 1975. In the preliminary model year 2020 data (shown as a dot on Figure 3.2), all vehicle
types are expected to improve fuel economy.
15
-------
Overall fuel economy trends depend on the trends within the five vehicle types, but also on
the market share of each of the vehicle types. The trend away from sedan/wagons, which
remain the vehicle type with the highest fuel economy and lowest CO2 emissions, and
towards vehicle types with lower fuel economy and higher CO2 emissions, has offset some
of the fleetwide benefits that otherwise would have been achieved from the improvements
within each vehicle type.
Vehicle Type by Manufacturer
The model year 2019 production breakdown by vehicle type for each manufacturer is
shown in Figure 3.3. There are clear variations in production distribution by manufacturer.
More than 90% of Tesla's production was sedans/wagons, which is the highest of any
manufacturer. For other vehicle types, Hyundai had the highest percentage of car SUVs at
49%, Subaru had the highest percentage of truck SUVs at 81 %, Ford had the highest
percentage of pickups at 37%, and FCA had the highest percentage of minivan/vans at 13%.
Sedans/wagon market penetration fell 4% across the industry in model year 2019, with
reductions from eleven out of fourteen manufacturers. The largest drops were from BMW
at 16%, Mazda at 15%, and Hyundai at 11%, with all three companies moving their vehicle
production towards car SUVs and truck SUVs.
Figure 3.3. Vehicle Type Distribution by Manufacturer for Model Year 2019
^ Lower average C02 Emissions
100%
Vehicle Type
Sedan/Wagon
¦ Car SUV
¦ Truck SUV
¦ Minivan/Van
¦ Pickup
16
-------
A Closer Look at SUVs
SUV Classification
Over the last 30 years, the production share of SUVs in the United States has increased in all
but six years and now accounts for almost 50% of all vehicles produced (see Figure 3.2). This
includes both the car and truck SUV vehicle types.
Based on the regulatory definitions of cars and trucks, SUVs that are less than 6,000 pounds
GVW can be classified as either cars or trucks, depending on design requirements such as
minimum angles and clearances, and whether the vehicle has 2-wheel drive or 4-wheel drive.
This definition can lead to similar vehicles having different car or truck classifications, and
different requirements under the GHG and CAFE regulations. One particular trend of interest
is the classification of SUVs as either car SUVs or truck SUVs.
This report does not track GVW, but instead tracks weight using inertia weight classes, where
inertia weight is the weight of the empty vehicle, plus 300 pounds (see weight discussion on
the next page). Figure 3.4 shows the breakdown of SUVs into the car and truck categories
over time for vehicles with an inertia weight of 4,000 pounds or less. Vehicles in the 4,500-
pound inertia weight class and higher were excluded, as these vehicles generally exceed
6,000 pounds GVW and are classified as trucks. The relative percentage of SUVs with an
inertia weight of 4,000 pounds or less that meet the current regulatory truck definition in
model year 2019 is less than in model year 2000. However, since model year 2012 the
percentage of truck SUVs has been increasing slowly, and the percentage of truck SUVs is
projected to reach a new high in model year 2020.
Figure 3.4. Car-Truck Classification of SUVs with Inertia Weights of 4000 Pounds or Less
100%
o> 75%
L_
03
-C
CO
I 50%
o
13
~o
o
I—
25%
0%
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Model Year
¦ Car SUV
Truck SUV
17
-------
B, Vehicle Weight
Vehicle weight is a fundamental vehicle attribute, both because it can be related to utility
functions such as vehicle size and features, and because higher weight, other things being
equal, will increase CO2 emissions and decrease fuel economy. All vehicle weight data in
this report are based on inertia weight classes. Each inertia weight class represents a range
of loaded vehicle weights, or vehicle curb weights6 plus 300 pounds. Vehicle inertia weight
classes are in 250-pound increments for classes below 3,000 pounds, while inertia weight
classes over 3,000 pounds are divided into 500-pound increments.
Vehicle Weight by VeJ
Figure 3.5 shows the average new vehicle weight from model year 1975 through 2020 for
all new vehicles by vehicle type. From model year 1975 to 1981, average vehicle weight
dropped 21 %, from 4,060 pounds per vehicle to about 3,200 pounds; this was likely driven
by both increasing fuel economy standards (which, at the time, were universal standards,
and not based on any type of vehicle attribute) and higher gasoline prices.
From model year 1981 to model year 2004, the trend reversed, and average new vehicle
weight began to slowly but steadily climb. By model year 2004, average new vehicle weight
had increased 28% and reached 4,111 pounds per vehicle, in part because of the increasing
truck share. Average vehicle weight in model year 2019 was only slightly above 2004 but
has increased slowly over the last several years and is currently at the highest point on
record, at 4,156 pounds. Preliminary model year 2020 data suggest that weight will
continue to increase slightly.
In model year 1975, the difference between the heaviest and lightest vehicle types was
about 215 pounds, or about 5% of the average new vehicle. By model year 2019, the
difference between the heaviest and lightest vehicle types had increased to almost 1,600
pounds, or about 38% of the average new vehicle weight. Over that time, the weight of an
average new sedan/wagon fell 13% while the weight of an average new pickup increased
27%. In 1975, the average new sedan/wagon outweighed the average new pickup by about
45 pounds, but the different weight trends over time for each of these vehicle types led to a
very different result in model year 2019, with the average new pickup outweighing the
average new sedan/wagon by almost 1,600 pounds. Pickups did have a large drop of over
300 pounds per average new vehicle in weight model year 2015, which is correlated with
the redesign of the Ford F-150 to a largely aluminum body.
6 Vehicle curb weight is the weight of an empty, unloaded vehicle.
18
-------
Figure 3.5. Average New Vehicle Weight by Vehicle Type
Sedan/Wagon
in
-Q
5500
5000
4500 -
4000 -
3500
3000
2500
cn
D 5500
5
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
ALL
A—v/V/-
\
s
u
J
2% I
Since MY 19
75
Truck SUV
J
f\ Y 1975
-13c
Since N
Minivan/Vari
5°/
Since
*
MY 1975
•
J
7°/c
Since K
f
¦
1Y 1975
Car SUV
-7°/
Since
1
0 ~
/IY 197
5
Pickup
Z1
I
J
/
\
/
27% t
Since MY 197
5
1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Model Year
Figure 3.6 shows the annual production share of different inertia weight classes for new
vehicles since model year 1975, In model year 1975 there were significant sales in all
weight classes from <2,750 pounds to 5,500 pounds. In the early 1980s the largest vehicles
disappeared from the market, and light cars <2,750 pounds inertia weight briefly captured
more than 25% of the market. Since then, cars in the <2,750-pound inertia weight class
have all but disappeared, and the market has moved towards heavier vehicles.
Interestingly, the heaviest vehicles in model year 1975 were mostly large cars, whereas the
heaviest vehicles today are largely trucks, with a few luxury vehicles and vans.
HH9
-------
Figure 3.6. Inertia Weight Class Distribution by Model Year
100%-
75% -
25%
1975
1985
1995
2005
2015
Weight
| <2750
| 2750
| 3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
| 5500
| 6000
| >6000
Model Year
Vehicle Weight and CO2 Emissions
Heavier vehicles require more energy to move than lower-weight vehicles and, if all other
factors are the same, will have lower fuel economy and higher CO2 emissions. The wide
array of technology available in modern vehicles complicates this comparison, but it is still
useful to evaluate the relationship between vehicle weight and CO2 emissions, and how
these variables have changed over time.
Figure 3.7 shows estimated real-world CO2 emissions as a function of vehicle inertia weight
for model year 19787 and model year 2020. On average, CO2 emissions increase linearly
with vehicle weight for both model years, although the rate of change as vehicles get
heavier is different between model year 2020 and 1978. At lower weights, vehicles from
model year 2020 produce about two thirds of the CO2 emissions of 1978 vehicles. The
difference between model year 2020 and 1978 increases for heavier vehicles, as the
heaviest model year 2020 vehicles produce about half of the CO2 emissions of 1978
vehicles. Electric vehicles, which do not produce any tailpipe CO2 emissions regardless of
7 Model year 1978 was the first year for which complete horsepower data are available, therefore it will be used
for several historical comparisons for consistency.
20
-------
weight, are visible along the 0 g/mi axis of Figure 3.7. As more electric vehicles are
introduced into the market, the relationship between average vehicle CO2 emissions and
inertia weight will continue to evolve.
Figure
1200
900
E
O)
CM
o
^ 600
o
5
¦
"(0
a:
300
0
3.7. Relationship of Inertia Weight and CO2 Emissions
Model Year
~ 1978
• 2020
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Inertia Weight (lbs)
C. Vehicle Power
Vehicle power, measured in horsepower (hp), has changed dramatically since model year
1975. The average new vehicle in model year 2019 produced 75% more power than a new
vehicle in model year 1975, and 140% more power than an average new vehicle in model
year 1981. In the early years of this report, horsepower fell, from an average of 137 hp in
model year 1975 to 102 hp in model year 1981. Since model year 1981, however,
horsepower has increased 33 out of 38 years. The average new vehicle horsepower is at a
record high, increasing from 241 hp in model year 2018 to 245 hp in model year 2019. The
preliminary value for model year 2020 is 247 hp, which would be another record-high for
horsepower.
21
-------
Vehicle Power by Vehicle Type
As with weight, the changes in horsepower are also quite different among vehicle types, as
shown in Figure 3.8. Horsepower for sedans/wagons increased about 50% between model
year 1975 and 2019, more than 70% for car SUVs and truck SUVs, 86% for minivan/vans,
and 143% for pickups. Increases in horsepower have been more variable over the last
decade, but the general trend continues to be increasing horsepower. The projected model
year 2020 data shows another expected increase of about 2 hp.
Figure 3.8. Average New Vehicle Horsepower by Vehicle Type
350
300
250
200
150
| 100
O
CL
Q
£ 350
0
1
300
250
200
150
100
1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Model Year
The distribution of horsepower over time has shifted towards vehicles with higher
horsepower, as shown in Figure 3.9. While few new vehicles in the early 1980s had greater
than 200 hp, the average vehicle in model year 2020 is projected to have 247 hp. in
addition, vehicles with more than 300 hp are projected to make up almost half of new
vehicle production, and the maximum hp for an individual vehicle is now well over 1,000
hp.
ALL Sedan/Wagon Car SUV
•
79%
t
E
V-/ 1
o
NP
0s
t
71 %t
Since MY
1975
Since M\
1975
Since MY 1975
Truck SUV Minivan/Van Pickup
/*•
/%
cr-
CN
K. ,
t
36%
1
"Vx 143°/c
t
Since MY
1975
Since MY 1975
Since MY
1975
22
-------
Figure 3.9. Horsepower Distribution by Model Year
100%-
75%
50% -
1980 1990
2000
2010
2020
Horsepower
>450
400-450
350-400
| 300-350
250-300
| 200-250
150-200
100-150
| 50-100
Model Year
Vehicle Power and CO2 Emissions
The relationship between vehicle power, CO2 emissions, and fuel economy has become
more complex as new technology and vehicles have emerged in the marketplace. In the
past, higher power generally increased CO2 emissions and decreased fuel economy,
especially when new vehicle production relied exclusively on gasoline and diesel internal
combustion engines. As shown in Figure 3.10, model year 1978 vehicles with increased
horsepower generally had increased CO2 emissions. In model year 2020, CO2 emissions are
projected to increase with increased vehicle horsepower at a much lower rate than in
model year 1978, such that model year 2020 vehicles will nearly all have lower CO2
emissions than their model year 1978 counterparts with the same amount of power.
Technology improvements, including turbocharged engines and hybrid packages, have
reduced the incremental CO2 emissions associated with increased power. Electric vehicles
are present along the 0 g/mi line in Figure 3.10 because they produce no tailpipe CO2
emissions, regardless of horsepower, further complicating this analysis for modern
vehicles.
23
-------
Figure 3.10. Relationship of Horsepower and CO2 Emissions
1200
Model Year
• 1978
• 2020
900
CM
o
o
¦o
600
CO
a>
cn
300
0
500
1000
1500
Horsepower
Vehicle Acceleration
Vehicle acceleration is closely related to vehicle horsepower. As new vehicles have
increased horsepower, the corresponding ability of vehicles to accelerate has also
increased. The most common vehicle acceleration metric, and one of the most recognized
vehicle metrics overall, is the time it takes a vehicle to accelerate from 0 to 60 miles per
hour, also called the 0-to-60 time. Data on 0-to-60 times are not directly submitted to EPA
but are calculated for most vehicles using vehicle attributes and calculation methods
developed by MacKenzie and Heywood (2012).8 Data are obtained from external sources
for hybrids and electric vehicles.
Since the early 1980s, there has been a clear downward trend in 0-to-60 times. Figure 3.11
shows the average new vehicle 0-to-60 time from model year 1978 to model year 2019. The
average new vehicle in model year 2019 has a 0-to-60 time of 7.9 seconds, which is the
fastest average 0-to-60 time for any model year. It is also approaching half of the average
8 MacKenzie, D. Heywood, J. 2012. Acceleration performance trends and the evolving relationship among
power, weight, and acceleration in U.S. light-duty vehicles: A linear regression analysis. Transportation Research
Board, Paper NO 12-1475, TRB 91st Annual Meeting, Washington, DC, January 2012.
24
-------
0-to-60 times of the early 1980s. The calculated 0-to-60 time for model year 2020 is
projected to fail further, to 7.7 seconds.
Figure 3.11. Calculated 0-to-60 Time by Vehicle Type
18
15
12
9
IT)
"O
d
o
o
0 18
CO
15
12
9
1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Model Year
The long-term downward trend in 0-to-60 times is consistent across all vehicle types,
though it appears to be diverging in more recent years. The average 0-to-60 time for
pickups continues to decrease steadily, while times for car SUVs have begun to flatten out.
The continuing decrease in pickup truck 0-to-60 times is likely due to their increasing
power, as shown in Figure 3.8. While much of that power is intended to increase towing
and hauling capacity, it also decreases Q-to-60 times.
D. Vehicle Footprint
Vehicle footprint is a very important attribute since it is the basis for the current CO2
emissions and fuel economy standards. Footprint is the product of wheelbase times
average track width (the area defined by where the centers of the tires touch the ground).
ALL Sedan/Wagon Car SUV
-42% *
Since MY 1978
-41% ~
Since MY 1978
-39% *
Since MY 1978
Truck SUV
Minivan/Van
Pickup
A
-40% ^
\
/
v
Since MY 1978
\
\
\
'—
1
1
1
s
-
-42% J
\
-48% 1
\
Since MY 1978
Since MY 1978
v»
25
-------
This report provides footprint data beginning with model year 2008, although footprint
data from model years 2008-2010 were aggregated from various sources and EPA has less
confidence in the precision of these data than that of formal compliance data. Beginning in
model year 2011, the first year when both car and truck CAFE standards were based on
footprint, automakers began to submit reports to EPA with footprint data at the end of the
model year, and these official footprint data are reflected in the final data through model
year 2019. EPA projects footprint data for the preliminary model year 2020 fleet based on
footprint values from the previous model year and, for new vehicle designs, publicly
available data.
Vehicle Footprint by Vehicle Type
Figure 3.12 shows overall new vehicle and vehicle type footprint data since model year
2008. Between model year 2008 and 2019, the overall average footprint increased 4%, from
48.9 to 50.8 square feet. All five vehicle types have increased average footprint, ranging
from a small increase for car SUVs (up 0.1 square feet or 0.3%) to a larger increase for
pickup trucks (up 2.1 square feet, or 3.3%). The overall increase is larger than the individual
vehicle type changes due to the changing mix of vehicles over time, as the market has
shifted towards larger SUVs and away from smaller sedans/wagons.
Figure 3.12. Footprint by Vehicle Type for Model Year 2008-2020
70
O"
(/)
c
"k_
Q.
-i—'
O
O
50
40
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Model Year
Pickup
IV
inivan/Van
— —
Tru
ik SUV
I
Fleetwide Avg
«- -¦"
0-: ¦*: **
Car SUV
—
I
Sedan/Wagon
26
-------
The distribution of footprints across all new vehicles, as shown in Figure 3.13, also shows a
slow reduction in the number of smaller vehicles with a footprint of less than 45 square
feet. Projected data for model year 2020 suggest that overall average footprint will
decrease 0.4 square feet to 50.4 square feet.
Figure 3.13. Footprint Distribution by Model Year
100%
75%
CD
i_
CO
-C
CO
a
¦B 50%
o
Z3
T3
O
!_
CL
25%
0%
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Model Year
Vehicle Footprint and CO2 Emissions
The relationship between vehicle footprint and CO2 emissions is shown in Figure 3.14.
Vehicles with a larger footprint are likely to weigh more and have more frontal area, which
leads to increased aerodynamic resistance. Increased weight and aerodynamic resistance
increase CO2 emissions and decreases fuel economy. The general trend of increasing
footprint and CO2 emissions holds true for vehicles from model year 2008 and model year
2020, although vehicles produced in model year 2020 are projected to produce roughly
20% less CO2 emissions than model year 2008 vehicles of a comparable footprint. Electric
vehicles are shown in Figure 3.14 with zero tailpipe CO2 emissions, regardless of footprint.
As more electric vehicles enter the market, the relationship between footprint and tailpipe
CO2 emissions will become much flatter, or less sensitive to footprint.
Footprint
60-65
55-60
27
-------
Figure 3.14. Relationship of Footprint and CO2 Emissions
750
I
S
cT 500
o
33
I—
O
3
TO
£ 250
0
30 40 50 60 70
Footprint (sq ft)
E. Summary
The past 40+ years of data show striking changes in the attributes of vehicles produced for
sale in the United States. The marketplace has moved from more than 80% cars to a much
more varied mix of vehicles, with recent growth in SUV sales (car SUVs and truck SUVs)
resulting in SUVs capturing more than 45% of the market. The weight of an average new
vehicle fell dramatically in the late 1970s, then slowly climbed for about 20 years before
leveling off. Average vehicle weight in model year 2019 was only slightly above 2004 but
has increased slowly over the last several years and is currently at the highest point on
record.
In 2019 sedans/wagons have an average weight that is 13% below 1975, but pickups are
now 27% heavier than in model year 1975. Vehicle power and acceleration have increased
across all vehicle types, with overall average horsepower more than doubling the low
reached in the early 1980s. Vehicle footprint has increased about 4% since this report
began tracking the data in model year 2008. Figure 3.15 shows a summary of the relative
changes in fuel economy, weight, horsepower, and fuel economy since 1975.
Model Year
• 2008
2020
28
-------
Figure 3.15. Relative Change in Fuel Economy, Weight, and Horsepower, since
Model Year 1975
100%-
Real-World Fuel Economy
75% -
50% —
(D
o
c
CD
d)
c
CO
Horsepower
25% -
sz
O
0%-
Weight
-25% -
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Model Year
Over time, automotive technology innovation has been applied to vehicle design with
differing emphasis between vehicle weight, power, CO2 emissions, and fuel economy. In the
two decades before model year 2004, technology innovation was generally used to
increase vehicle power, and weight increased due to changing vehicle design, increased
vehicle size, and increased content. During this period, average new vehicle fuel economy
steadily decreased, and CO2 emissions correspondingly increased. However, since model
year 2004, technology has been used to increase fuel economy (up 29%) and power (up
16%), while reducing CO2 emissions (down 23%). Average vehicle weight in model year
2019 was only slightly above 2004 but has increased slowly over the last several years and
is currently at the highest point on record. The improvement in CO2 emissions and fuel
economy since 2004 is due to many factors, including gasoline prices, consumer
preference, and increasing stringency of NHTSA light-duty car and truck CAFE standards.
Vehicle fuel economy and CO2 emissions are clearly related to vehicle attributes
investigated in this section, namely weight, horsepower, and footprint. Future trends in fuel
economy and CO2 emissions will be dependent, at least in part, by design choices related to
these attributes.
29
-------
Table 3.1. Vehicle Attributes by Mode \ tv.r
Real-World Real-World Car Truck
CO2 FE Weight Horsepower 0 to 60 Footprint Production Production
Model Year
(g/mi)
(mpg)
(lbs)
(HP)
(s)
(ft2)
Share
Share
1975
681
13.1
4,060
137
-
-
80.7%
19.3%
1980
466
19.2
3,228
104
15.6
-
83.5%
16.5%
1985
417
21.3
3,271
114
14.1
-
75.2%
24.8%
1990
420
21.2
3,426
135
11.5
-
70.4%
29.6%
1995
434
20.5
3,613
158
10.1
-
63.5%
36.5%
2000
450
19.8
3,821
181
9.8
-
58.8%
41.2%
2001
453
19.6
3,879
187
9.5
-
58.6%
41.4%
2002
457
19.5
3,951
195
9.4
-
55.2%
44.8%
2003
454
19.6
3,999
199
9.3
-
53.9%
46.1%
2004
461
19.3
4,111
211
9.1
-
52.0%
48.0%
2005
447
19.9
4,059
209
9.0
-
55.6%
44.4%
2006
442
20.1
4,067
213
8.9
-
57.9%
42.1%
2007
431
20.6
4,093
217
8.9
-
58.9%
41.1%
2008
424
21.0
4,085
219
8.9
48.9
59.3%
40.7%
2009
397
22.4
3,914
208
8.8
47.9
67.0%
33.0%
2010
394
22.6
4,001
214
8.8
48.5
62.8%
37.2%
2011
399
22.3
4,126
230
8.5
49.5
57.8%
42.2%
2012
377
23.6
3,979
222
8.5
48.8
64.4%
35.6%
2013
368
24.2
4,003
226
8.4
49.1
64.1%
35.9%
2014
369
24.1
4,060
230
8.3
49.7
59.3%
40.7%
2015
360
24.6
4,035
229
8.3
49.4
57.4%
42.6%
2016
359
24.7
4,035
230
8.3
49.5
55.3%
44.7%
2017
357
24.9
4,093
234
8.2
49.8
52.6%
47.4%
2018
353
25.1
4,137
241
8.0
50.4
48.0%
52.0%
2019
356
24.9
4,156
245
7.9
50.8
44.4%
55.6%
2020 (prelim)
344
25.7
4,177
247
7.7
50.4
42.8%
57.2%
To explore this data in more depth, please see the report website at https://www.epa.gov/automotive-trends
-------
Table 3.2, Estimated Real-World Fuel Economy and CO2 by Vehicle Type
Model Year
Sedan/Wagon
Car SUV
Truck SUV
Minivan/Van
Pickup
Prod
Share
Real-
World
CO2
(g/mi)
Real-
World
FE
(mpg)
Prod
Share
Real-
World
CO2
(g/mi)
Real-
World
FE
(mpg)
Prod
Share
Real-
World
CO2
(g/mi)
Real-
World
FE
(mpg)
Prod
Share
Real-
World
CO2
(g/mi)
Real-
World
FE
(mpg)
Prod
Share
Real-
World
CO2
(g/mi)
Real-
World
FE
(mpg)
1975
80.6%
660
13.5
0.1%
799
11.1
1.7%
806
11.0
4.5%
800
11.1
13.1%
746
11.9
1980
83.5%
446
20.0
0.0%
610
14.6
1.6%
676
13.2
2.1%
629
14.1
12.7%
541
16.5
1985
74.6%
387
23.0
0.6%
443
20.1
4.5%
538
16.5
5.9%
537
16.5
14.4%
489
18.2
1990
69.8%
381
23.3
0.5%
All
18.8
5.1%
541
16.4
10.0%
498
17.8
14.5%
511
17.4
1995
62.0%
379
23.4
1.5%
499
17.8
10.5%
555
16.0
11.0%
492
18.1
15.0%
526
16.9
2000
55.1%
388
22.9
3.7%
497
17.9
15.2%
555
16.0
10.2%
478
18.6
15.8%
534
16.7
2001
53.9%
386
23.0
4.8%
All
18.8
17.3%
541
16.4
7.9%
493
18.0
16.1%
557
16.0
2002
51.5%
385
23.1
3.7%
460
19.3
22.3%
545
16.3
7.7%
475
18.7
14.8%
564
15.8
2003
50.2%
382
23.3
3.6%
446
19.9
22.6%
541
16.4
7.8%
468
19.0
15.7%
553
16.1
2004
48.0%
384
23.1
4.1%
445
20.0
25.9%
539
16.5
6.1%
464
19.2
15.9%
565
15.7
2005
50.5%
379
23.5
5.1%
440
20.2
20.6%
531
16.7
9.3%
460
19.3
14.5%
561
15.8
2006
52.9%
382
23.3
5.0%
434
20.5
19.9%
518
17.2
7.7%
455
19.5
14.5%
551
16.1
2007
52.9%
369
24.1
6.0%
431
20.6
21.7%
503
17.7
5.5%
456
19.5
13.8%
550
16.2
2008
52.7%
366
24.3
6.6%
419
21.2
22.1%
489
18.2
5.7%
448
19.8
12.9%
539
16.5
2009
60.5%
351
25.3
6.5%
403
22.0
18.4%
461
19.3
4.0%
443
20.1
10.6%
526
16.9
2010
54.5%
340
26.2
8.2%
386
23.0
20.7%
452
19.7
5.0%
442
20.1
11.5%
527
16.9
2011
47.8%
344
25.8
10.0%
378
23.5
25.5%
449
19.8
4.3%
424
20.9
12.3%
516
17.2
2012
55.0%
322
27.6
9.4%
381
23.3
20.6%
445
20.0
4.9%
418
21.3
10.1%
516
17.2
2013
54.1%
313
28.4
10.0%
365
24.3
21.8%
427
20.8
3.8%
422
21.1
10.4%
509
17.5
2014
49.2%
313
28.4
10.1%
364
24.4
23.9%
412
21.6
4.3%
418
21.3
12.4%
493
18.0
2015
47.2%
306
29.0
10.2%
353
25.1
28.1%
406
21.9
3.9%
408
21.8
10.7%
474
18.8
2016
43.8%
303
29.2
11.5%
338
26.2
29.1%
400
22.2
3.9%
410
21.7
11.7%
471
18.9
2017
41.0%
293
30.2
11.6%
339
26.1
31.7%
398
22.3
3.6%
399
22.2
12.1%
470
18.9
2018
36.7%
286
30.8
11.3%
324
27.3
35.0%
384
23.1
3.1%
389
22.8
13.9%
466
19.1
2019
32.7%
285
30.9
11.7%
323
27.5
36.5%
378
23.5
3.4%
396
22.4
15.6%
467
19.0
2020 (prelim)
33.3%
272
32.0
9.5%
293
29.5
40.8%
372
23.9
2.6%
383
23.0
13.7%
460
19.5
To explore this data in more depth, please see the report website at https://www.epa.gov/automotive-trends
-------
Table 3.3, Model Year 2019 Vehicle Attributes by Manufacturer
Manufacturer
Real-World
C02
(g/mi)
Real-World
FE
(mpg)
Weight
(lbs)
Horsepower
(HP)
0 to 60
(s)
Footprint
(ft2)
BMW
337
26.2
4,248
277
6.9
49.3
FCA
418
21.2
4,631
299
7.2
54.9
Ford
395
22.5
4,482
285
7.4
55.3
GM
395
22.5
4,438
273
7.7
54.2
Honda
307
28.9
3,661
207
8.0
47.8
Hyundai
311
28.5
3,494
174
8.9
46.6
Kia
316
28.1
3,585
186
8.7
47.0
Mazda
320
27.8
3,831
191
8.9
46.3
Mercedes
374
23.7
4,390
287
6.8
49.5
Nissan
329
27.0
3,811
202
8.9
48.1
Subaru
312
28.4
3,893
186
9.4
45.9
Tesla
0
118
4,436
392
4.8
49.9
Toyota
345
25.8
4,120
233
8.0
49.5
VW
338
26.1
4,141
236
7.7
48.2
Other
351
25.2
4,202
248
8.3
48.0
All Manufacturers
356
24.9
4,156
245
7.9
50.8
To explore this data in more depth, please see the report website at https://www.epa.gov/automotive-trends
-------
Table 3.4. Model Year 2019 Estimated Real-World Fuel Economy and CO2 by Manufacturer and Vehicle Type
Sedan/Wagon
Car SUV
Truck SUV
Minivan/Van
Pickup
Real-
Real-
Real-
Real-
Real-
Real-
Real-
Real-
Real-
Real-
World
World
World
World
World
World
World
World
World
World
Prod
CO2
FE
Prod
CO2
FE
Prod
CO2
FE
Prod
CO2
FE
Prod
CO2
FE
Manufacturer
Share
(g/mi)
(mpg)
Share
(g/mi)
(mpg)
Share
(g/mi)
(mpg)
Share
(g/mi)
(mpg)
Share
(g/mi)
(mpg)
BMW
57.3%
318
27.6
8.7%
311
28.6
33.9%
377
23.6
-
-
-
-
-
-
FCA
11.3%
400
22.2
7.9%
337
26.4
40.3%
397
22.4
13.0%
406
21.9
27.4%
487
18.3
Ford
19.8%
315
28.1
11.4%
346
25.7
29.2%
412
21.6
2.6%
384
23.1
36.9%
440
20.2
GM
15.4%
313
28.0
17.7%
314
28.3
39.2%
408
21.8
-
-
-
27.6%
475
18.7
Honda
47.2%
265
33.4
10.1%
302
29.4
31.3%
343
25.9
8.0%
383
23.2
3.3%
409
21.7
Hyundai
48.9%
274
32.3
49.4%
343
25.8
1.7%
430
20.7
-
-
-
-
-
-
Kia
61.1%
277
31.9
5.9%
337
26.4
30.7%
381
23.3
2.2%
421
21.1
-
-
-
Mazda
30.0%
291
30.5
22.0%
311
28.6
47.9%
342
26.0
-
-
-
-
-
-
Mercedes
50.8%
348
25.6
12.7%
345
25.8
35.1%
423
20.9
1.4%
406
21.9
-
-
-
Nissan
55.8%
283
31.2
8.9%
300
29.6
23.9%
381
23.4
1.5%
353
25.2
9.9%
480
18.5
Subaru
19.2%
306
29.1
-
-
-
80.8%
314
28.3
-
-
-
-
-
-
Tesla
91.0%
0
121.4
6.4%
0
91.9
2.6%
0
92.8
-
-
-
-
-
-
Toyota
36.9%
267
33.3
9.9%
316
28.1
35.1%
371
23.9
2.4%
399
22.3
15.7%
478
18.6
VW
49.9%
292
30.3
-
-
-
50.1%
384
23
-
-
-
-
-
-
Other
18.4%
290
30.6
10.7%
329
27.0
70.7%
371
23.9
0.2%
345
25.7
-
-
-
All Manufacturers
32.7%
285
30.9
11.7%
323
27.5
36.5%
378
23.5
3.4%
396
22.4
15.6%
467
19.0
To explore this data in more depth, please see the report website at https://www.epa.gov/automotive-trends
-------
Table 3.5, Footprint by Manufacturer for Model Year 2018-2020 (ft2)
Final MY 2018 Final MY 2019 Preliminary MY2020
Manufacturer
Car
Truck
All
Car
Truck
All
Car
Truck
All
BMW
47.3
51.1
48.3
47.7
52.3
49.3
47.8
51.8
49.3
FCA
48.9
52.8
52.0
49.3
56.3
54.9
48.3
54.1
53.2
Ford
46.6
59.9
55.3
46.9
59.1
55.3
47.8
56.0
54.0
GM
46.4
59.2
54.4
45.9
58.3
54.2
46.8
56.0
54.2
Honda
46.3
49.4
47.4
45.9
50.3
47.8
46.1
49.5
47.3
Hyundai
46.5
49.2
46.6
46.6
49.2
46.6
46.5
50.1
47.4
Kia
46.2
49.5
46.9
46.0
49.1
47.0
45.5
50.1
47.2
Mazda
45.6
47.9
46.5
44.9
47.7
46.3
45.7
47.1
46.4
Mercedes
48.3
51.3
49.6
48.6
51.0
49.5
49.0
52.5
50.8
Nissan
46.0
51.7
47.8
46.0
52.1
48.1
46.6
52.1
48.2
Subaru
44.9
45.0
45.0
44.9
46.1
45.9
44.8
46.2
45.9
Tesla
50.3
54.8
50.4
49.8
54.8
49.9
50.2
50.9
50.3
Toyota
46.1
51.6
48.8
46.5
52.0
49.5
46.1
52.2
49.2
VW
45.9
50.5
48.4
45.3
51.2
48.2
46.3
51.4
49.0
Other
45.0
49.4
48.1
44.5
49.5
48.0
45.6
49.0
48.1
All Manufacturers
46.5
53.9
50.4
46.5
54.2
50.8
46.8
53.1
50.4
To explore this data in more depth, please see the report website at https://www.epa.gov/automotive-trends
-------
4. Vehicle Technology
Since model year 1975, the technology used in vehicles has continually evolved. Today's
vehicles utilize an increasingly wide array of technological solutions developed by the
automotive industry to improve vehicle attributes discussed previously in this report,
including CO2 emissions, fuel economy, vehicle power, and acceleration. Automotive
engineers and designers are constantly creating and evaluating new technology and
deciding how, or if, it should be applied to their vehicles.
This section of the report focuses on three separate technological areas of a vehicle: the
engine, transmission, and driveline. The engine (or motor) of an automobile is at the heart
of any vehicle design and converts energy stored in fuel (or a battery) into rotational
energy. The transmission converts the rotational energy from the relatively narrow range
of speeds available at the engine to the appropriate speed required for the driving
conditions. The driveline transfers the rotational energy from the transmission to the two
or four wheels being used to move the vehicle. Each of these components has energy
losses, or inefficiencies, which ultimately increase vehicle CO2 emissions and decrease fuel
economy. A basic illustration of the energy flow through a vehicle is shown in Figure 4.1.
Hybrid vehicles, electric vehicles (EVs), and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) may have
somewhat different configurations than shown in Figure 4.1.
Figure 4.1. Vehicle Energy Flow
Tires
Tires
35
-------
Manufacturers are adopting many new technologies to improve efficiency. Figure 4.2
illustrates projected manufacturer-specific technology adoption, with larger circles
representing higher adoption rates, for model year 2020. The figure shows preliminary
model year 2020 technology projections to provide insight on a quickly changing industry,
even though there is some uncertainty in the preliminary data.
Figure 4.2. Manufacturer Use of Emerging Technologies for Model Year 2020
Tesla
Honda
Hyundai -
Subaru -
Kia
Mazda
Nissan
BMW -
VW -
Toyota
Mercedes
Ford
GM -
FCA -
All Manufacturers
52%
73%
15%
62%
23%
98%
9%
67%
20%
100%
7%
57%
99%
99%
91%
97%
98% 100%
78% 66%
45% 83%
18% 15%
52%
98% 93%
3% 2% 31% 42%
13%
8% 62% 69%
35% 55% 28% 51% 42%
60%
100% 83%
5% 81% 86% 10%
44%
14%
100%
6% 1%
4% 2%
0%
2% 2%
2%
4%
91% 86% 2% 7% 4%
12% 1%
7% 15% 0%
-W> 1%
1% 91% 53% 24% 20%
7%
1%
1%
4%
—i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1—
Turbo GDI CVT 7+Gears StopStart CD Hybrid PHEV/
EV/FCV
Engine technologies such as turbocharged engines (Turbo) and gasoline direct injection
(GDI) allow for more efficient engine design and operation. Cylinder deactivation (CD)
allows for only using part of the engine when less power is needed, and stop/start can turn
off the engine entirely when the vehicle is stopped to save fuel. Hybrid vehicles use a larger
36
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battery to recapture braking energy and provide power when necessary, allowing for a
smaller, more efficiently-operated engine. Transmissions that have seven or more speeds,
and continuously variable transmissions (CVTs), allow the engine to more frequently
operate near its peak efficiency, providing more efficient average engine operation and a
reduction in fuel usage. The technologies in Figure 4.2 are all being adopted by
manufacturers to reduce CO2 emissions and increase fuel economy. In some cases, the
adoption is rapid. For example, GDI was used in fewer than 3% of vehicles as recently as
model year 2008, but is projected to be in 55% of vehicles in model year 2020. Electric
vehicles (EVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), and fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) are a
small but growing percentage of new vehicles.
Each of the fourteen largest manufacturers have adopted several of these technologies
into their vehicles, with many manufacturers achieving high penetrations of several
technologies as shown in Figure 4.2. It is also clear that manufacturers' strategies to
develop and adopt new technologies are unique and vary significantly. Each manufacturer
is choosing technologies that best meet the design requirements of their vehicles, and in
many cases, that technology is changing quickly. The rest of this section will explore how
engine, transmission, and driveline technology has changed since 1975, the impact of those
technology changes, and the rate at which technology is adopted by the industry.
Vehicle engine technology has continually evolved in the 45 years since EPA began
collecting data. Over that time, engines using gasoline as a fuel have dominated the
market, and the technology on those engines has changed dramatically. More recently,
new engine designs such as PHEVs, EVs, and FCVs have begun to enter the market,
potentially offering dramatic reductions in tailpipe CO2 emissions and further increases in
fuel economy.
The trend in engine technology since model year 1975 is shown in Figure 4.3. Vehicles that
use an engine that operates exclusively on gasoline (including hybrids, but not plug-in
hybrids which also use electricity) have held at least 95% of the light-duty vehicle market in
almost every year. Vehicles with diesel engines briefly captured almost 6% of the market in
model year 1981 but have been less than 1 % of the market in most other years since 1985.
PHEVs, EVs, and FCVs have added to the increasing array of technology available in the
automotive marketplace and have been capturing a small but growing portion of the
market. These vehicles captured 1.7% of the market in model year 2019, and are projected
to grow to 4% in model year 2020.
Engines
-------
Figure 4.3. Production Share by Engine Technology
100% -
75% -
50% -
0 25% -
1—
ra
-C
CO
c 0% -
o
o 100% 1
75% -
50% -
25% -
0%
i 1 1 1 i 1 1 1 1 1—
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Truck
Model Year
Fuel Delivery
Valve Timing
Number ofVa Ives
Key
Carbureted
Fixed
Two-Valve
1
Multi-Valve
2
Throttle Body Injection
Fixed
Two-Valve
3
Multi-Valve
4
Port Fuel Injection
Fixed
Two-Valve
5
Multi-Valve
6
Variable
Two-Valve
7
Multi-Valve
e
Gasoline Direct
Fixed
Multi-Valve
<
Injection (GDI)
Variable
MultiValve
K
m
Two-Valve
Diesel
—
"
K
m
EV/PHEV/FCV
—
"
I
-------
Engines that use only gasoline as a fuel (including hybrids) are further divided based on
three broad parameters for Figure 4.3: fuel delivery, valve timing, and number of valves per
cylinder. These parameters enable better control of the combustion process, which in turn
can allow for lower CO2 emissions, increased fuel economy, and/or more power. Fuel
delivery refers to the method of creating an air and fuel mixture for combustion. The
technology for fuel delivery has changed over time from carburetors to fuel injection
systems located in the intake system, and more recently to gasoline direct injection (GDI)
systems that spray gasoline directly into the engine cylinder.
The valves on each cylinder of the engine determine the amount and timing of air entering
and exhaust gases exiting the cylinder during the combustion process. Valve timing has
evolved from fixed timing to variable valve timing (VVT), which can allow for much more
precise control. In addition, the number of valves per cylinder has generally increased,
again offering more control of air and exhaust flows. All of these changes have led to
modern engines with much more precise control of the combustion process.
Figure 4.3 shows many different engine designs as they have entered, and in many cases
exited, the automotive market. Some fleetwide changes occurred gradually, but in some
cases (for example trucks in the late 1980s), engine technology experienced widespread
change in only a few years. Evolving technology offers opportunities to improve fuel
economy, CO2 emissions, power, and other vehicle parameters. The following analysis will
look at technology trends within gasoline engines (including hybrids), PHEVs and EVs, and
diesel engines. Each of these categories of engine technologies has unique properties,
metrics, and trends over time.
Gasoline Engines
Since EPA began tracking vehicle data in 1975, nearly 650 million vehicles have been
produced for sale in the United States. For most of those years, vehicles relying on a
gasoline engine as the only source of power captured more than 99% of production. The
only exceptions were in the early 1980s when diesel engines peaked briefly at about 6% of
the market, and more recently as electric vehicle production has increased. For the
purposes of this report, hybrid vehicles are included with gasoline engines, as are "flex fuel"
vehicles that are capable of operating on gasoline or a blend of 85% ethanol and 15%
gasoline (E85).
39
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Engine Size and Displacement
Engine size is generally described in one of two ways, either the number of cylinders or the
total displacement of the engine (the total volume of the cylinders). Engine size is
important because larger engines strongly correlate with higher fuel use, Figure 4,4 shows
the trends in gasoline engine size over time, as measured by number of cylinders.
Figure 4.4. Gasoline Engine Production Share by Number of Cylinders
100%
-------
capturing a little over half of all production. Four-cylinder engines have remained the most
popular engine option, capturing just under 60% of the market in model year 2019 and in
projected model year 2020 data. Production share of 8-cylinder engines has been about 10-
12% of production since model year 2012.
Overall engine size, as measured by the total volume of all the engine's cylinders, is directly
related to the number of cylinders. As vehicles have moved towards engines with a lower
number of cylinders, the total engine size, or displacement, is also at an all-time low. The
average new vehicle in model year 1975 had a displacement of nearly 300 cubic inches,
compared to an average of 174 cubic inches in model year 2019. Gasoline engine
displacement per cylinder has been relatively stable over the time of this report (around 35
cubic inches per cylinder since 1980), so the reduction in overall new vehicle engine
displacement is almost entirely due to the shift towards engines with fewer cylinders.
The contrasting trends in horsepower (at all-time high) and engine displacement (at an all-
time low) highlight the continuing improvement in engines. These improvements are due
to the development of new technologies and ongoing design improvements that allow for
more efficient use of fuel or reduce internal engine friction. One additional way to examine
the relationship between engine horsepower and displacement is to look at the trend in
specific power (HP/Displacement), which is a metric to compare the power output of an
engine relative to its size.
Specific power has increased nearly 200% between model year 2019 and model year 1975.
The rate at which specific power has increased has been remarkably steady, as shown in
Figure 4.5. The specific power of new vehicle gasoline engines has increased by about 0.02
horsepower per cubic inch every year for 40+ years. Considering the numerous and
significant changes to engines over this time span, changes in consumer preferences, and
the external pressures on vehicle purchases, the long-standing linearity of this trend is
noteworthy. The roughly linear increase in specific power does not appear to be slowing.
Turbocharged engines, direct injection, higher compression ratios, and many other engine
technologies are likely to continue increasing engine specific power.
Figure 4.5 also shows two other important engine metrics, the amount of fuel consumed
compared to the overall size of the engine (Fuel Consumption/Displacement), and the
amount of fuel consumed relative to the amount of power produced by an engine (Fuel
Consumption/HP). The amount of fuel consumed by a gasoline engine in model year 2019,
relative to the total displacement, is about 13% lower than in model year 1975, although it
has increased very slightly since model year 2015. Fuel consumption relative to engine
horsepower has fallen almost 70% since model year 1975. Taken as a whole, the trend lines
-------
in Figure 4.5 clearly show that gasoline engine improvements over time have been steady
and continual, and have resulted in impressive improvements to internal combustion
engines.
Figure 4.5. Percent Change for Specific Gasoline Engine Metrics
200% -
150%-
LO
fe 100%-
-------
later, GDI engines were installed in more than 50% of model year 2019 gasoline vehicles
and are projected to continue increasing.
Another key aspect of engine design is the valvetrain. Each engine cylinder must have a set
of valves that allow for air (or an air/fuel mixture) to flow into the engine cylinder prior to
combustion and for exhaust gases to exit the cylinder after combustion. The number of
valves per cylinder and the method of controlling the valves (i.e., the valvetrain) directly
impacts the overall efficiency of the engine. Generally, engines with four valves per cylinder
instead of two, and valvetrains that can alter valve timing during the combustion cycle can
provide more engine control and increase engine power and efficiency.
This report began tracking multi-valve engines (i.e., engines with more than two valves per
cylinder) for cars in model year 1986 and for trucks in model year 1994. Since that time
about 90% of the fleet has converted to multi-valve design. While some three- and five-
valve engines have been produced, the majority of multi-valve engines are based on four
valves per cylinder. Engines with four valves generally use two valves for air intake and two
valves for exhaust. In addition, this report began tracking variable valve timing (VVT)
technology for cars in model year 1990 and for trucks in model year 2000, and since then
nearly the entire fleet has adopted this technology. Figure 4.3 shows the evolution of
engine technology, including fuel delivery method and the introduction of VVT and multi-
valve engines.
As shown in Figure 4.3, fuel delivery and valvetrain technologies have often been
developed simultaneously. Nearly all carbureted engines relied on fixed valve timing and
had two valves per cylinder, as did early port-injected engines. Port-injected engines largely
developed into engines with both multi-valve and WT technology. Engines with GDI are
almost exclusively using multi-valve and WT technology. These four engine groupings, or
packages, represent a large share of the engines produced over the timespan covered by
this report.
Figure 4.6 shows the changes in specific power and fuel consumption per horsepower for
each of these engine packages over time. There is a very clear increase in specific power of
each engine package as engines moved from carbureted engines, to engines with two
valves, fixed timing and port fuel injection, then to engines with multi-valve WT and port
fuel injection, and finally to GDI engines. Some of the increase for GDI engines may also be
due to the fact that GDI engines are often paired with turbochargers to further increase
power. Vehicles with fixed valve timing and two valves per cylinder have been limited in
recent years and are no longer included in Figure 4.6 after model year 2015 due to very
limited production.
43
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Figure 4.6. Engine Metrics for Different Gasoline Technology Packages
GDI Engines
Variable Timing,
Multi-Valve Engines
Fixed Timing,
Two-Valve Engines
0.4 - Carbureted Engines
0.06
Carbureted Engines
0.05
o
o
en
0.04
Fixed Timing,
Two-Valve Engines
Q.
0.03
0.02-
Variable Timing,
Multi-Valve Engines
LL
GDI Engines
0.01
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Model Year
-------
Turbocfaargiiig
Turbochargers increase the power that an engine can produce by forcing more air, and
thus fuel, into the engine. An engine with a turbocharger can produce more power than an
identically sized engine that is naturally aspirated or does not have a turbocharger.
Turbochargers are powered using the pressure of the engine exhaust as it leaves the
engine. Superchargers operate the same way as turbochargers but are directly connected
to the engine for power, instead of using the engine exhaust. Alternate turbocharging and
supercharging methods, such as electric superchargers, are also beginning to emerge. A
limited number of new vehicles utilize both a turbocharger and supercharger in one engine
package.
Turbocharged engines have been increasing rapidly in the marketplace, accounting for 30%
of all production in model year 2019, and projected to reach 35% in model year 2020, as
shown in Figure 4.7. Many of these engines are applying turbochargers to create "turbo
downsized" engine packages that can combine the improved fuel economy of smaller
engines during normal operation but can provide the power of a larger engine by engaging
the turbocharger when necessary. As evidence of this turbo downsizing, about 80% of
gasoline turbocharged engines are 4-cylinder engines in model year 2019, with most other
turbochargers being used in 6-cylinder engines. Model year 2020 is projected to be similar,
with a small but growing number of vehicles equipped with 3-cylinder turbocharged
engines. This is shown in Figure 4.8.
Most of the current turbocharged engines also use GDI and WT. This allows for more
efficient engine operation, helps increase the resistance to premature combustion (engine
knock), and reduces turbo lag (the amount of time it takes for a turbocharger to engage). In
model year 2019, almost 90% of new vehicles with gasoline turbocharged engines also
used GDI.
Figure 4.9 examines the distribution of engine displacement and power of turbocharged
engines over time. In model year 2011, turbochargers were used mostly in cars, and were
available on engines both above and below the average engine displacement. The biggest
increase in turbocharger use over the last few years has been in cars with engine
displacement well below the average displacement. The distribution of horsepower for
turbocharged engines is much closer to the average horsepower, even though the
displacement is smaller, reflecting the higher power per displacement of turbocharged
engines. This trend towards adding turbochargers to smaller, less powerful engines is
consistent with the turbo downsizing trend.
45
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Figure 4.7. Gasoline Turbo Engine Production Share by Vehicle Type
30%
(L>
L_
to
-C
CO
c
o
o
3
"D
O
20%
J
Vehicle Type
Sedan/Wagon
Car SUV
Truck SUV
| Minivan/Van
| Pickup
10%
2003
2008
2013
Model Year
2018
Figure 4.8. Gasoline Turbo Engine Production Share by Number of Cylinders
30% -
(0
¦C
CO
c
o
o
3
73
O
20%
10%
0%
Cylinders
4 Cylinder
6 Cylinder
8 Cylinder
Other
2003
2008
2013
Model Year
2018
46
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Figure 4.9. Distribution of Gasoline Turbo Vehicles by Displacement and
Horsepower, Model Year 2011, 2014, and 2019
Horsepower
Displacement (cubic inches)
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2,500
, „
2,000
I )
o
o
c
1,500
o
o
-J
1,000
~u
o
CL
500
0
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Mean HP,
All Cars
X
Mean
HP,
All Cars
Mean HP,
¦
¦ Mean HP,
All Trucks
Mean Displacerr|ent,
All Cars
. Mean Displacement,
All Trucks
Mean
HP,
All Cars
Mean HP,
All Trucks
:
Mean Displac
All Cars
ment,
*
— Mean Displacement,
All Trucks
ro
o
Mean Displace
nent,
All Cars^
. Mean Displacement,
All Trucks
¦
—
¦¦
i
ro
o
Truck
Car
ro
o
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
47
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Cylinder Deactivation
Cylinder deactivation is an engine management approach that turns off the flow of fuel to
one or more engine cylinders when driving conditions do not require full engine power.
This effectively allows a large engine to act as a smaller engine when the additional
cylinders are not needed, increasing engine efficiency and fuel economy. The use of
cylinder deactivation in gasoline vehicles has been steadily climbing, and in model year
2019 gasoline engines with cylinder deactivation were almost 15% of all vehicles. This trend
is expected to continue, especially as new improvements to cylinder deactivation
technology, such as dynamic cylinder deactivation, reach the market.
Stop/Start
Engine stop/start technology allows the engine to be automatically turned off at idle and
very quickly restarted when the driver releases the brake pedal. By turning the engine off, a
vehicle can eliminate the fuel use and CO2 emissions that would have occurred if the
engine was left running. This report began tracking stop/start technology in model year
2012 at less than one percent, and already the use of stop/start has increased to almost
37% of all vehicles, with an increase to about 42% projected for model year 2020.
Hybrids
Gasoline hybrid vehicles feature a battery pack that is larger than the battery found on a
typical gasoline vehicle, which allows these vehicles to store and strategically apply
electrical energy to supplement the gasoline engine. The result is that the engine can be
smaller than what would be needed in a non-hybrid vehicle, and the engine can be
operated near its peak efficiency more often. Hybrids also utilize regenerative braking,
which uses a motor/generator to capture energy from braking instead of losing that energy
to friction and heat, as in traditional friction braking, and stop/start technology to turn off
the engine at idle. The combination of these strategies can result in significant reductions
in fuel use and CO2 emissions.
Hybrids were first introduced in the U.S. marketplace in model year 2000 with the Honda
Insight. As more models and options were introduced, hybrid production generally
increased to 3.8% of all vehicles in model year 2010. Between model years 2011 and 2018,
production of hybrids averaged about 2.5%, before returning to their previous peak of 3.8%
in model year 2019. Hybrid production is expected to increase to a record 6.5% in model
year 2020, as shown in Figure 4.10 and Figure 4.11.
48
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Figure 4.10. Gasoline Hybrid Engine Production Share by Vehicle Type
6%
5%
Vehicle Type
Sedan/Wagon
¦ Car SUV
Truck SUV
I Pickup
y 3%
2000
2005
2010
Model Year
2015
2020
Figure 4.11. Gasoline Hybrid Engine Production Share by Number of Cylinders
6% -I
5%-
4%-
3%H
"O
o
^ 2%-I
Cylinders
4 Cylinder
¦ 6 Cylinder
8 Cylinder
Other
1%-
0%-
li
.¦
2000
2005
2010
Model Year
2015
2020
49
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Most hybrids through model year 2018 were sedan/wagons with 4-cylinder engines.
However, the growth in hybrids in model year 2019 (and projected for 2020), is largely due
to truck SUVs and pickup trucks along with a growing share of hybrids with 6- and 8-
cylinders. The growth of hybrids in the pickup vehicle type is largely due to the introduction
of "mild" hybrid systems that are capable of regenerative braking and many of the same
functions as other hybrids, but utilize a smaller battery and an electrical motor that cannot
directly drive the vehicle. If these types of hybrids do in fact capture a significant market
share, this report may disaggregate hybrids in the future for more detailed analysis.
The production-weighted distribution of fuel economy for all hybrid cars by year is shown
in Figure 4.12. Hybrid cars, on average, had fuel economy more than 40% higher than the
average non-hybrid car in model year 2019. As a production weighted average, hybrid cars
(including sedan/wagons and car SUVs) achieved 41.7 mpg for model year 2019, while the
average non-hybrid car achieved about 29.4 mpg.
Figure 4.12. Hybrid Real-World Fuel Economy Distribution, Cars Only
Highest Hybrid Car
O
CL
2
E 40
o
c
o
o
LU
_ 30
O)
Average Hybrid Car
LL
Average Non-Hybrid Car
Lowest Hybrid Car
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Model Year
50
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Figure 4.12 is presented only for cars since the production of hybrid trucks has been
limited. While the average fuel economy of hybrid cars remains higher than the average
fuel economy of non-hybrid cars, the difference has narrowed considerably. Average
hybrid car fuel economy has been relatively stable since model year 2001, while the fuel
economy of the average non-hybrid car has increased 30% between model years 2001 and
2019.
Plug-In Hybrid Electric, Electric Kiv1 CHI YHudes
PHEVs and EVs are two types of vehicles that can store electricity from an external source
onboard the vehicle, utilizing that stored energy to propel the vehicle. PHEVs are similar to
gasoline hybrids discussed previously, but the battery packs in PHEVs can be charged from
an external electricity source; this cannot be done in gasoline hybrids. EVs operate using
only energy stored in a battery from external charging. Fuel cell vehicles use a fuel cell to
chemically convert a fuel (usually hydrogen) into electrical energy that is then used to
power the vehicle.
EVs do not emit tailpipe emissions at the vehicle. However, generating the electricity used
to charge EVs, in most cases, creates emissions. The amount of emissions created by
charging EVs varies depending on fuel source of the electricity, which can in turn vary
based on location and time of day. The electric grid in the US has also been changing over
time, as natural gas and renewable energy resources have been responsible for a growing
portion of electricity generation across the US. Depending on the source of electricity, EVs
can result in much lower CO2 emissions over their lifetime compared to gasoline vehicles.
Since EVs do not use gasoline, the familiar metric of miles per gallon cannot be applied to
EVs. Instead, EVs are rated in terms of miles per gallon-equivalent (mpge), which is the
number of miles that an EV travels on an amount of electrical energy equivalent to the
energy in a gallon of gasoline. This metric enables a direct comparison of energy efficiency
between EVs and gasoline vehicles. EVs generally have a much higher energy efficiency
than gasoline vehicles because electric motors are much more efficient than gasoline
engines.
PHEVs combine the benefits of EVs with the benefits of a gasoline hybrid. These vehicles
can operate either on electricity or gasoline, allowing for a wide range of engine designs
and strategies for the utilization of stored electrical energy during typical driving. The use
of electricity to provide some or all of the energy required for propulsion can significantly
lower fuel consumption and tailpipe CO2 emissions. For a much more detailed discussion
of EV and PHEV metrics, as well as upstream emissions from electricity, see Appendix E.
51
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The production of EVs and PHEVs has increased rapidly in recent years. Prior to model year
2011, EVs were available, but generally only in small numbers for lease in California.9 In
model year 2011 the first PHEV, the Chevrolet Volt, was introduced along with the Nissan
Leaf EV. Many additional models have been introduced since, and in model year 2019
combined EV/PHEV sales were 1.7%. While this was a small reduction from the previous
high of 2.2% achieved in model year 2018, combined EV and PHEV production is projected
to reach a new high of 4% of all production in model year 2020. The trend in EVs, PHEVs,
and FCVs are shown in Figure 4.13.
Figure 4.13. Production Share of EVs, PHEVs, and FCVs, Model Year 1995-202010
4% -
Plug-In Hybrid EV
Electric Vehicle
Fuel Cell Vehicle
3%
-------
The inclusion of model year 2019 EV and PHEV sales reduces the overall new vehicle
average CO2 emissions by 5 g/mi, and this impact will continue to grow if EV and PHEV
production increases. In model year 2019 there were three hydrogen FCVs produced, but
they were only available in the state of California and Hawaii and in very small numbers.
However there continues to be interest in FCVs as a future technology.
Figure 4.14 shows the range and fuel economy trends for EVs and PHEVs. The average
range of new EVs has climbed substantially. In model year 2019 the average new EV is
projected to have a 252-mile range, or about three and a half times the range of an average
EV in 2011. This difference is largely attributable to higher production of new EVs with
much longer ranges. The range values shown for PHEVs are the charge-depleting range,
where the vehicle is operating on energy in the battery from an external source. This is
generally the electric range of the PHEV, although some vehicles also use the gasoline
engine in small amounts during charge depleting operation. The average charge depleting
range for PHEVs has remained unchanged since model year 2011.
Along with improving range, the fuel economy of electric vehicles has also improved as
measured in miles per gallon of gasoline equivalent (mpge). The fuel economy of electric
vehicles has increased by more than 15% between model years 2011 and 2019. The
combined fuel economy of PHEVs has been more variable and does not appear to have a
clear trend. For more information about EV and PHEV metrics, see Appendix E.
Figure 4.14. Charge Depleting Range and Fuel Economy for EVs and PHEVs
Range (mi) Fuel Economy (mpge)
120
300-
Electric Vehicles
100-
Electric Vehicles
200-
80
100-
Plug-ln Hybrid
Electric Vehicles
Plug-In Hybrid
Electric Vehicles
60
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Model Year
53
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' Vsel Engines
Vehicles with diesel engines have been available in the U.S. at least as long as EPA has been
collecting data. However, sales of diesel vehicles have rarely broken more than 1 % of the
overall market. Diesel vehicle sales peaked at 5.9% of the market in model year 1981, but
quickly fell back to below 1 % of production per year. While the overall percentage of diesel
vehicles is low, there are still new vehicles entering the market.
Vehicles that rely on diesel fuel often achieve higher fuel economy than gasoline vehicles,
largely because the energy density of diesel fuel is about 15% higher than that of gasoline.
However, there is less of an advantage in terms of CO2 emissions because diesel fuel also
contains about 15% more carbon per gallon, and thus emits more CO2 per gallon burned
than gasoline.
Figure 4.15 shows the production share of diesel engines by vehicle type. Diesel engines
have historically been more prevalent in the sedan/wagon vehicle type, however, since
model year 2015 there have been very few sedan/wagons vehicles with diesel engines.
Light-duty diesel pickup trucks re-entered the market at about the same time and are
projected to increase the overall production of diesel vehicles to 1.0% of all new vehicles. If
achieved, that would be only the second time since model year 1984 that diesel vehicles
have accounted for at least 1.0% of all production. This report does not include the largest
pickup trucks and work or vocational trucks, which have a higher penetration of diesel
engines. As shown in Figure 4.16, current production of diesel engines for light-duty
vehicles is limited to smaller four- and six-cylinder engines, with the growth in light-duty
pickups relying almost exclusively on 6-cylinder engines.
Diesel engines, as with gasoline engines, have improved over time. Figure 4.17 shows the
same metrics and trends that are explored in Figure 4.5 for gasoline engines. The specific
power (HP/displacement) for diesel engines has increased about 200% since model year
1975. Fuel consumption per displacement dropped slightly in the 1980s but has increased
back to about the same level as in model year 1975. Finally, fuel consumption per
horsepower for diesel engines has declined about 70% since model year 1975.
-------
Figure 4.15. Diesel Engine Production Share by Vehicle Type
6%
2 4%
ro
c/3
o
-O
o
a. 2% -
0%
j
Vehicle Type
Sedan/Wagon
Car SUV
Truck SUV
Minivan/Van
I Pickup
rili I
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 r
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Model Year
Figure 4.16. Diesel Engine Production Share by Number of Cylinders
9> 4%
Cylinders
4 Cylinder
6 Cylinder
8 Cylinder
Other
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Model Year
55
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Figure 4.17. Percent Change for Specific Diesel Engine Metrics
250% -
200%
in 150%
r^-
O)
§ 100%
CO
<1)
CJ>
§ 50%"
sz
O
0%
-50%
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Model Year
Other Engine Technologies
In addition to the engine technologies described above, there have been a small number of
other technologies available in the U.S. marketplace over the years. Vehicles that operate
on compressed natural gas (CNG) are one example, but there are currently no CNG
vehicles available from vehicle manufacturers (aftermarket conversions are not included
here). This report will continue to track all vehicles produced for sale in the U.S., and if CNG
or other technologies reach widespread availability they will be included in future versions
of this report.
HP/Displacement
Fuel Consumption/Displacement
Fuel Consumption/HP
56
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B, Transmission and Drive Types
The vehicle transmission and driveline connect the engine to the wheels, as shown in
Figure 4.1. There are two important aspects of transmissions that impact overall vehicle
efficiency and fuel economy. First, as torque (rotational force) is transferred through the
transmission, a small amount is lost to friction, which reduces vehicle efficiency. Second,
the design of the transmission impacts how the engine is operated, and generally
transmissions with more speeds offer more opportunity to operate the engine in the most
efficient way possible. For example, a vehicle with an eight-speed transmission will have
more flexibility in determining engine operation than a vehicle with a five-speed
transmission. This can lead to reduced fuel consumption and CO2 emissions compared to a
vehicle that is identical except for the number of transmission gears.
Transmissions
Transmission designs have been rapidly evolving to increase the number of gears available
and allow for both better engine operation and improved efficiency. The number of gears
in new vehicles continues to increase, as does the use of continuously variable
transmissions (CVTs). Figure 4.18 shows the evolution of transmission production share for
cars and trucks since model year 1980.11 For this analysis, transmissions are separated into
manual transmissions, CVTs, and automatic transmissions. Automatic transmissions are
further separated into those with and without lockup mechanisms, which can lock up the
torque converter in an automatic transmission under certain driving conditions and
improve efficiency. CVTs have also been split into hybrid and non-hybrid versions to reflect
the fact that hybrid CVTs are generally very different mechanically from traditional CVTs.
Dual clutch transmissions (DCTs) are essentially automatic transmissions that operate
internally much more like traditional manual transmissions. The two main advantages of
DCTs are that they can shift very quickly, and they can avoid some of the internal resistance
of a traditional automatic transmission by eliminating the torque converter. Currently,
automaker submissions to EPA do not explicitly identify DCTs as a separate transmission
category. Thus, the introduction of DCTs shows up in Figure 4.18 as a slight increase in
automatic transmissions without torque converters (although some DCTs may still be
reported as traditional automatic transmissions).
11 EPA has incomplete transmission data prior to model year 1980.
-------
Figure 4.18. Transmission Production Share
a>
¦.
to
sz
CO
c
o
o
=3
T3
o
CVT(h)
CVT(h)
100% -
75% -
50% -
25% -
0%-
100%
75%
50%
25%
0%
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
03
O
O
13
Model Year
Transmission
Lockup?
Number of Gears
Key
Automatic
No
3
A3
Semi-Automatic
4
A4
Automated Manual
5
A5*
6
A6
7
A7
8
K
CO
<
Yes
2
L2*
3
L3
4
L4
5
L5
6
L6
7
L7
8
[9
10
Manual
-
3
M3
4
M4
5
M5
6
M6
7
M7*
Co n ti n u o us lyVa ria b le
(non-hybrid)
—
—
CVT(n-h)
Co n ti n u o us ly\fe ria b le
(hybrid)
~
CVT(h)
Other
-
-
Other
"Categories A5, A8, L2, and M7 are too small to depict in the area plot.
H
-------
In the early 1980s, three-speed automatic transmissions, both with and without lockup
torque converters (shown as L3 and A3), were the most popular transmissions, but by
model year 1985, the four-speed automatic transmission with lockup (L4) became the most
popular transmission, a position it would hold for 25 years. Over 80% of all new vehicles
produced in model year 1999 were equipped with an L4 transmission. After model year
1999, the production share of L4 transmissions slowly decreased as L5 and L6
transmissions were introduced into the market. Production of L5 and L6 transmissions
combined passed the production of L4 transmissions in model year 2007.
Six-speed transmissions became the most popular transmission choice in model year 2010
and reached 60% of new vehicle production in model year 2013. However, the prevalence
of 6-speed transmissions has since dropped quickly, to 26% in model year 2019 and to a
projected 16% in model year 2020, as manufacturers have increasingly adopted
transmissions with seven or more speeds and CVTs. In contrast to six-speed transmissions,
the production of transmissions with seven or more speeds has increased to 47% of all
vehicles in model year 2019 and is projected to grow to 51 % in model year 2020, from only
2% in model year 2008. The production of CVTs (including hybrids) has also increased to
almost 25% of all new vehicles, from about 8% in model year 2008. In model year 2019,
eight-speed transmissions surpassed 6-speed transmission to become the most popular
transmission choice. These trends are projected to continue in model year 2020, with 8-
speed transmissions, CVTs, and 9 or more speed transmissions all continuing to increase
market share.
Figure 4.19 shows the average number of gears in new vehicle transmissions since model
year 1980 for automatic and manual transmissions. The average number of gears in new
vehicles has been steadily climbing for car, trucks, automatic transmissions, and manual
transmissions. In model year 1980, automatic transmissions, on average, had fewer gears
than manual transmissions. However, automatic transmissions have added gears faster
than manual transmissions, and now the average automatic transmission has more gears
than the average manual transmission.
: :
-------
Figure 4.19. Average Number of Transmission Gears
co
a;
O
<
5
Manual
Automatic
-I
|
1
1980
1990
2000
Model Year
2010
2020
Figure 4.20. Comparison of Manual and Automatic Transmission Real-World
Fuel Economy for Comparable Vehicles
£=
O
CO
tO
CO
a
CO
1.05
CO
11
CO c
^ O
o
o LU
0 0
-*—> —5
1 iZ
o
•*—>
Z3
<
o
o
"3
0d
0.95
0.90
Automatic transmissions A
are more efficient
Manual transmissions
are more efficient
1980
1990
2000
Model Year
2010
2020
60
-------
In the past, automatic transmissions have generally been less efficient than manual
transmissions, largely due to inefficiencies in the automatic transmission torque converter.
Figure 4.20 examines this trend over time by comparing the fuel economy of automatic and
manual transmission options where both transmissions were available in one model with
the same engine. Vehicles with a manual transmission were more efficient than their
automatic counterparts through about 2010, but modern automatic transmissions are now
more efficient. Two contributing factors to this trend are that automatic transmission
design has become more efficient (using earlier lockup and other strategies), and the
number of gears used in automatic transmissions has increased faster than in manual
transmissions.
Since 1980, there has been a large shift away from manual transmissions. Manual
transmission production peaked in model year 1980 at nearly 35% of production and has
since fallen to an all-time low of 1.4% in model year 2019. Today, manual transmissions are
available only in a limited number of small vehicles, sports cars, and a few pickups. The
shrinking availability of manual transmissions does limit the relevance of analyses
comparing current manual transmissions to automatic transmissions.
-------
Drive Types
There has been a long and steady trend in new vehicle drive type away from rear-wheel
drive vehicles towards front-wheel drive and four-wheel drive (including all-wheel drive)
vehicles, as shown in Figure 4.21. In model year 1975, over 91 % of new vehicles were
produced with rear-wheel drive. Since then, production of rear-wheel drive vehicles has
steadily declined to about 10% in model year 2019. Current production of rear-wheel drive
vehicles is mostly limited to pickup trucks and some performance vehicles.
Production of front-wheel drive vehicles increased from 5% of new vehicle production in
model year 1975 to 64% in model year 1990 and 63% in model year 2009. Since 2009
however, the production of front-wheel vehicles has also been declining, down to 42% in
model year 2019. Four-wheel drive systems have steadily increased from 3.3% of new
vehicle production in model year 1975 to 48% of production in model year 2019, with more
than 50% of new vehicles projected to have four-wheel drive systems in model year 2020.
Figure 4.21. Front-, Rear-, and Four-Wheel Drive Production Share
100% -
75% -
2
CO
-C
c0
O 50% -
-t—'
o
"O
2
Q.
25% -
0% -
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Model Year
Drive
Four-Wheel
Front-Wheel
Rear-Wheel
62
-------
C. Technology Adoption
One additional way to evaluate the evolution of technology in the automotive industry is to
focus on how technology has been adopted over time. Understanding how the industry has
adopted technology can lead to a better understanding of past changes in the industry,
and how emerging technology may be integrated in the future. The following analysis
provides more details about how manufacturers and the overall industry have adopted
new technology.
Industry-Wide Technology Adoption Sina Is"
Figure 4.22 shows industry-wide adoption rates for seven technologies in passenger cars.
These technologies are fuel injection (including throttle body, port, and direct injection),
front-wheel drive, multi-valve engines (i.e., engines with more than two valves per cylinder),
engines with variable valve timing, lockup transmissions, advanced transmissions
(transmissions with six or more speeds, and CVTs), and gasoline direct injection engines. To
provide a common scale, the adoption rates are plotted in terms of the number of years
after the technology achieved first significant use in the industry. First significant use
generally represents a production threshold of 1 %, though in some cases, where full data
are not available, first significant use represents a slightly higher production share.
The technology adoption pattern shown in Figure 4.22 is roughly similar for each of the
seven technologies, even though they vary widely in application, complexity, and when they
were initially introduced. It has taken, on average, approximately 15-20 years for new
technologies to reach maximum penetration across the industry. GDI is a newer technology
that has likely not reached maximum penetration across the industry but appears to be
following the adoption trend of other more mature technologies. While some of these
technologies may eventually be adopted in 100% of new vehicles, there may be reasons
that other technologies, like front-wheel drive, will likely never be adopted in all vehicles.
Adoption rates for these technologies in trucks are similar, with the exception of front-
wheel drive.
The analysis for Figure 4.22 focuses on technologies that have achieved widespread use by
multiple manufacturers and does not look at narrowly-adopted technologies which never
achieved widespread use. One limitation to the data in this report is that EPA does not
begin tracking technology production share data until after the technologies had achieved
some limited market share. For example, EPA did not begin to track multi-valve engine data
until model year 1986 for cars and model year 1994 for trucks, and in both cases multi-
valve engines had captured about 5% market share by that time. Likewise, turbochargers
63
-------
were not tracked in Trends until model year 1996 for cars and model year 2003 for trucks,
and while turbochargers had less than a 1 % market share in both cases at that time, it is
likely that turbochargers had exceeded 1 % market share in the late 1980s. Cylinder
deactivation was utilized by at least one major manufacturer in the 1980s,
Figure 4.22. Industry-Wide Car Technology Penetration after First Significant
Use
100%
75%
2
CO
-C
(/)
c
o
& 50%
o
"O
o
25%
Variable-Valve
Timing
20
i-
30
Front-Wheel
Drive
Fuel Injection
Lockup
Advanced
"Transmission
Mu ti-Va ve
-r
40
50
Years after First Significant Use
Technology Adoption by Manufacturers
The rate at which the overall industry adopts technology is determined by how quickly, and
at what point in time, individual manufacturers adopt the technology. While it is important
to understand the industry-wide adoption rates over time, the trends in Figure 4.22 mask
the fact that not all manufacturers introduced these technologies at the same time, or at
the same rate. The "sequencing" of manufacturers introducing new technologies is an
important aspect of understanding the overall industry trend of technology adoption.
64
-------
Figure 4.23 begins to disaggregate the industry-wide trends to examine how individual
manufacturers have adopted new technologies.12 For each technology, Figure 4.23 shows
the amount of time it took specific manufacturers to move from initial introduction to 80%
penetration for each technology, as well as the same data for the overall industry. After
80% penetration, the technology is assumed to be largely incorporated into the
manufacturer's fleet, and changes between 80% and 100% are not highlighted.
Of the seven technologies shown in Figure 4.23, five are now at or near full market
penetration for the included manufacturers, and two are still in the process of adoption by
manufacturers. The technologies shown in Figure 4.23 vary widely in terms of complexity,
application, and when they were introduced into the market. For each technology, there
are clearly variations between manufacturers, both in terms of when they began to adopt a
technology, and the rate with which they adopted the technology. The degree of variation
between the manufacturers also varies by technology.
The data for WT (shown in Figure 4.22 and Figure 4.23), for example, show that several
manufacturers adopted the technology much faster than the overall industry, which
achieved 80% penetration in just over 20 years. It was not the rate of technology adoption
alone, but rather the staggered implementation timeframes among manufacturers that
resulted in the longer industry-wide average.
Fuel injection systems show the least amount of variation in initial adoption timing
between manufacturers, which resulted in a faster adoption by the industry overall than
technologies like WT. One important driver for adoption of fuel injection was increasingly
stringent emissions standards. Advanced transmissions, which have been available in small
numbers for some time, have very rapidly increased market penetration in recent years
and are now widely adopted. GDI engines appear to be following a similar path of quick
uptake in recent years. Turbocharged engines have long been available, but the focus on
turbo downsized engine packages is leading to much higher market penetration, although
it is too early to tell what level of penetration they will ultimately achieve industry-wide.
12 This figure is based on available data. Some technologies may have been introduced into the market before
this report began tracking them. Generally, these omissions are limited, with the exception of multi-valve
engine data for Honda. Honda had already achieved 70% penetration of multi-valve engines when this report
began tracking them in 1986, so this figure does not illustrate Honda's prior trends.
65
-------
Figure 4.23. Manufacturer Specific Technology Adoption over Time for Key
Technologies
0
i_
3
O
03
M—
3
C
CD
GM
Toyota
FCA
Ford
Honda
Nissan
Subaru
All Manufacturers
GM
Toyota
FCA
Ford
Honda
Nissan
Subaru
All Manufacturers
FCA
Ford
Honda
Nissan
Subaru
All Manufacturers
GM
Toyota
FCA
Ford
Honda
Nissan
Subaru
All Manufacturers
GM
Toyota
FCA
Ford
Honda
Nissan
Subaru
All Manufacturers
GM
Toyota
FCA
Ford
Honda
Nissan
Subaru
All Manufacturers
GM
Toyota
FCA
Ford
Honda
Nissan
Subaru
All Manufacturers
¦niimuiininiui
——MB—
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
¦¦¦¦
—
¦¦
JU
s
s
¦
¦
¦¦
»¦¦¦¦¦¦
¦
I
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
¦
¦
1
¦
S
¦¦¦¦
¦
¦
¦¦ in
-JMM 1
¦
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2000
Fuel Injection
Lockup
Multi-Valve
Variable Valve
Timing
Advanced
Transmissions
Gasoline Direct
Injection
Turbocharged
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Model Year
Percent of Production
20% to 25%
10% to 15%
j to 5% I
I
| 15% to 20%
5% to 10%
¦IMP
50% to 75%
80% to 100%
66
-------
The discrepancy between manufacturer adoption rates, and the timeframe when they
chose to adopt technologies, is clear in Figure 4.23 for WT. For more detail, Figure 4.24
shows the percent penetration of WT over time for each manufacturer (solid red line)
versus the average for all manufacturers (dotted grey line) and the maximum penetration
by any manufacturer (solid grey line). The largest increase in WT penetration over any
one-, three-, and five-year period for each manufacturer is shown in Figure 4.24 as green,
orange, and yellow boxes.
Each manufacturer clearly followed a unique trajectory to adopt WT. It took over 20 years
for nearly all new vehicles to adopt WT; however, it is also very clear that individual
manufacturers adopted WT across their own vehicle offerings much faster. All of the
manufacturers shown in Figure 4.24 were able to adopt WT across the vast majority of
their new vehicle offerings in under 15 years, and many accomplished that feat in under
ten years. As indicated by the yellow rectangles in Figure 4.24, several manufacturers
increased their penetration rates of WT by 75% or more over a five-year period. It is also
important to note that every manufacturer shown adopted WT into new vehicles at a rate
faster than the overall industry-wide data would imply. The industry average represents
both the rate that manufacturers adopted WT and the effect of manufacturers adopting
the technology at different times. Accordingly, the industry average shown in Figure 4.22
does not represent the average pace at which individual manufacturers adopted WT,
which is considerably faster.
WT was first tracked in this report for cars in model year 1990 and for trucks in model year
2000. Between model year 1990 and model year 2000, there may be a small number of
trucks with WT that are not accounted for in the data. However, the first trucks with WT
produced in larger volumes (greater than 50,000 vehicles) were produced in model year
1999 and model year 2000, so the discrepancy is not enough to noticeably alter the trends
in the previous figures.
-------
Figure 4.24. VVT Adoption Details by Manufacturer
All Manufacturers FCA Ford
100%
75%
50%
25%
I- 0%
>
>
100%
75%
Nissan
100%
75%
50%
25%
0%
Best 1-year increase
Best 3-year increase
Best 5-year increase
Highest
— Manufacturer
Fleet Average
Honda Hyundai
2000
2020
1990
Model Year
Technology Adoption in the Last Five Years
Over the last five years, engines and transmissions have continued to evolve and adopt
new technologies. Figure 4.25. shows the penetration of several key technologies in model
year 2015 and the projected penetration for each technology in model year 2020 vehicles.
Over that five-year span, transmissions with seven or more speeds and engines with
stop/start technology are both projected to increase market share by 35 percentage points,
turbocharged engines are expected to increase by 20 percentage points, and vehicles with
GDI engines are projected to increase by about 13 percentage points. Six speed
transmissions, which were the prevalent transmission choice for many years, are projected
68
-------
to lose market share by 38 percentage points between model year 2015 and 2020. These
are large changes taking place across the industry over a relatively short time. As discussed
in the previous section, individual manufacturers are making technology changes at even
faster rates.
Figure 4.25. Five-Year Change in Light Duty Vehicle Technology Production
Share
¦ MY 2015
¦ MY 2020
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Turbo GDI CVT Six Seven Stop/ CD Hybrid PHEV/
Speed Speed + Start EV/FCV
There are many factors outside the scope of this report that influence the rate and timing
of when technology is adopted by individual manufacturers (e.g., price, manufacturing
constraints, regulatory drivers, etc.) While no attempt is made here to identify the
underlying causes, it is important to recognize that variation between manufacturers for
given technologies can be masked when only the industry-wide trends are evaluated.
Technology adoption by individual manufacturers is often more rapid than the overall
industry trend would suggest. Manufacturers continue to adopt new technologies, and the
penetration of important technologies has grown significantly over the last five years.
69
-------
Table 4.1,
Production Share by Engine Technologies
Powertrain Fuel Delivery Method Avg. No.
Gasoline of Multi- Stop/
Model Year
Gasoline
Hybrid
Diesel
Other
Carb
GDI
Port TBI EV
FCV Cylinders
CID
HP
Valve
WT
CD Turbo
Start
1975
99.8%
-
0.2%
-
95.7%
-
4.1% 0.0
'%
-
6.8
293
137
-
-
-
1980
95.7%
-
4.3%
-
89.7%
-
5.2% 0.8
.%
-
5.6
198
104
-
-
-
1985
99.1%
-
0.9%
-
56.1%
-
18.2% 24.8
.%
-
5.5
189
114
-
-
-
1990
99.9%
-
0.1%
-
2.1%
-
70.8% 27.0
'%
-
5.4
185
135
23.1%
-
-
1995
100.0%
-
0.0%
-
-
-
91.6% 8.4
¦%
-
5.6
196
158
35.6%
-
-
2000
99.8%
0.0%
0.1%
-
-
-
99.8% 0.0
'%
-
5.7
200
181
44.8%
15.0%
- 1.3%
-
2001
99.7%
0.1%
0.1%
-
-
-
99.9%
-
-
5.8
201
187
49.0%
19.6%
- 2.0%
-
2002
99.6%
0.2%
0.2%
-
-
-
99.8%
-
-
5.8
203
195
53.3%
25.3%
- 2.2%
-
2003
99.5%
0.3%
0.2%
-
-
-
99.8%
-
-
5.8
204
199
55.5%
30.6%
- 1.2%
-
2004
99.4%
0.5%
0.1%
-
-
-
99.9%
-
-
5.9
212
211
62.3%
38.5%
- 2.3%
-
2005
98.6%
1.1%
0.3%
-
-
-
99.7%
-
-
5.8
205
209
65.6%
45.8%
0.8°/
E) 1.7%
-
2006
98.1%
1.5%
0.4%
-
-
-
99.6%
-
-
5.7
204
213
71.7%
55.4%
3.6°/
E) 2.1%
-
2007
97.7%
2.2%
0.1%
-
-
-
99.8%
-
-
5.6
203
217
71.7%
57.3%
7.3°/
b 2.5%
-
2008
97.4%
2.5%
0.1%
-
-
2.3%
97.6%
-
-
5.6
199
219
76.4%
58.2%
6.7°/
b 3.0%
-
2009
97.2%
2.3%
0.5%
-
-
4.2%
95.2%
-
-
5.2
183
208
83.8%
71.5%
7.3°/
b 3.3%
-
2010
95.5%
3.8%
0.7%
0.0%
-
8.3%
91.0%
-
0.0%
5.3
188
214
85.5%
83.8%
6.4°/
b 3.3%
-
2011
97.0%
2.2%
0.8%
0.1%
-
15.4%
83.8%
- 0.1%
0.0%
5.4
192
230
86.4%
93.1%
9.5°/
b 6.8%
-
2012
95.5%
3.1%
0.9%
0.4%
-
22.5%
76.5%
- 0.1%
0.0%
5.1
181
222
91.8%
96.6%
8.1°/
b 8.4%
0.6%
2013
94.8%
3.6%
0.9%
0.7%
-
30.5%
68.3%
- 0.3%
-
5.1
176
226
92.8%
97.4%
7.7°/
b 13.9%
2.3%
2014
95.7%
2.6%
1.0%
0.7%
-
37.4%
61.3%
- 0.3%
0.0%
5.1
180
230
89.2%
97.6%
10.6°/
b 14.8%
5.1%
2015
95.9%
2.4%
0.9%
0.7%
-
41.9%
56.7%
- 0.5%
0.0%
5.0
177
229
91.2%
97.2%
10.5°/
b 15.7%
7.1%
2016
96.9%
1.8%
0.5%
0.8%
-
48.0%
51.0%
- 0.5%
0.0%
5.0
174
230
92.3%
98.0%
10.4°/
b 19.9%
9.6%
2017
96.1%
2.3%
0.3%
1.4%
-
49.7%
49.4%
- 0.6%
0.0%
5.0
174
234
92.0%
98.1%
11,9°/i
b 23.4%
17.8%
2018
95.1%
2.3%
0.4%
2.2%
-
50.2%
48.0%
- 1.4%
0.0%
5.0
172
241
91.0%
96.4%
12.5°/
b 30.0%
29.8%
2019
94.4%
3.8%
0.1%
1.7%
-
52.9%
45.7%
- 1.2%
0.0%
5.1
174
245
90.1%
97.2%
14.9°/
b 30.0%
36.9%
2020 (prelim)
88.5%
6.5%
1.0%
4.0%
-
55.3%
40.3%
- 3.3%
0.0%
4.9
168
247
89.6%
94.0%
13.8°a
5 35.3%
42.2%
To explore this data in more depth, please see the report website at https://www.epa.gov/automotive-trends.
70
-------
Table 4,2, Production Share by Transmission Technologies
Automatic Automatic CVT 4 Gears Average
Model Year
Manual
with
Lockup
without
Lockup
CVT
(Hybrid)
(Non-
Hybrid)
Other
or
Fewer
5
Gears
6
Gears
7
Gears
8
Gears
9+
Gears
No. of
Gears
1975
23.0%
0.2%
76.8%
-
-
-
99.0%
1.0%
-
-
-
-
-
1980
34.6%
18.1%
46.8%
-
-
0.5%
87.9%
12.1%
-
-
-
-
3.5
1985
26.5%
54.5%
19.1%
-
-
-
80.7%
19.3%
-
-
-
-
3.8
1990
22.2%
71.2%
6.5%
-
0.0%
0.0%
79.9%
20.0%
0.1%
-
-
-
4.0
1995
17.9%
80.7%
1.4%
-
-
-
82.0%
17.7%
0.2%
-
-
-
4.1
2000
9.7%
89.5%
0.7%
-
0.0%
-
83.7%
15.8%
0.5%
-
-
-
4.1
2001
9.0%
90.3%
0.6%
0.1%
0.0%
-
80.7%
18.5%
0.7%
-
-
-
4.2
2002
8.2%
91.4%
0.3%
0.1%
0.1%
-
77.1%
21.6%
1.1%
-
-
-
4.2
2003
8.0%
90.8%
0.1%
0.3%
0.8%
-
69.2%
28.1%
1.7%
-
-
-
4.3
2004
6.8%
91.8%
0.3%
0.4%
0.7%
-
63.9%
31.8%
3.0%
0.2%
-
-
4.4
2005
6.2%
91.5%
0.1%
1.0%
1.3%
-
56.0%
37.3%
4.1%
0.2%
-
-
4.5
2006
6.5%
90.6%
0.0%
1.5%
1.4%
-
47.7%
39.2%
8.8%
1.4%
-
-
4.6
2007
5.6%
87.1%
0.0%
2.1%
5.1%
-
40.5%
36.1%
14.4%
1.5%
0.2%
-
4.8
2008
5.2%
86.8%
0.2%
2.4%
5.5%
-
38.8%
31.9%
19.4%
1.8%
0.2%
-
4.8
2009
4.8%
85.6%
0.2%
2.1%
7.3%
-
31.2%
32.2%
24.5%
2.5%
0.1%
-
5.0
2010
3.8%
84.1%
1.2%
3.8%
7.2%
-
24.6%
23.5%
38.1%
2.7%
0.2%
-
5.2
2011
3.2%
86.5%
0.3%
2.0%
8.0%
-
14.2%
18.7%
52.3%
3.1%
1.7%
-
5.5
2012
3.6%
83.4%
1.1%
2.7%
9.2%
-
8.1%
18.2%
56.3%
2.8%
2.6%
-
5.5
2013
3.5%
80.4%
1.4%
2.9%
11.8%
-
5.4%
12.8%
60.1%
2.8%
4.1%
-
5.6
2014
2.8%
76.7%
1.6%
2.3%
16.6%
-
2.2%
7.8%
58.4%
3.3%
8.4%
1.1%
5.9
2015
2.6%
72.3%
1.4%
2.2%
21.5%
-
1.5%
4.5%
54.2%
3.1%
9.5%
3.5%
5.9
2016
2.2%
72.3%
2.6%
1.7%
21.2%
-
1.1%
3.0%
54.9%
2.9%
11.2%
4.1%
6.0
2017
2.1%
71.5%
2.6%
1.9%
21.8%
-
1.0%
2.4%
49.0%
3.4%
14.6%
5.9%
6.1
2018
1.6%
72.8%
3.2%
1.7%
20.6%
-
1.9%
2.0%
37.6%
3.7%
19.0%
13.5%
6.4
2019
1.4%
72.1%
2.4%
2.2%
21.9%
-
1.5%
1.6%
26.1%
2.6%
27.5%
16.5%
6.6
2020 (prelim)
1.5%
66.1%
4.4%
3.1%
25.0%
-
3.4%
1.3%
15.8%
2.4%
28.3%
20.7%
6.6
-------
Table 4.3, Production Share by Drive Technology
Car Truck
Model Year
Front
Wheel
Drive
Rear
Wheel
Drive
Four
Wheel
Drive
Front
Wheel
Drive
Rear
Wheel
Drive
1975
6.5%
93.5%
-
-
82.8%
1980
29.7%
69.4%
0.9%
1.4%
73.6%
1985
61.1%
36.8%
2.1%
7.3%
61.4%
1990
84.0%
15.0%
1.0%
15.8%
52.4%
1995
80.1%
18.8%
1.1%
18.4%
39.3%
2000
80.4%
17.7%
2.0%
20.0%
33.8%
2001
80.3%
16.7%
3.0%
16.3%
34.8%
2002
82.9%
13.5%
3.6%
15.4%
33.1%
2003
80.9%
15.9%
3.2%
15.4%
34.1%
2004
80.2%
14.5%
5.3%
12.5%
31.0%
2005
79.2%
14.2%
6.6%
20.1%
27.7%
2006
75.9%
18.0%
6.0%
18.9%
28.0%
2007
81.0%
13.4%
5.6%
16.1%
28.4%
2008
78.8%
14.1%
7.1%
18.4%
24.8%
2009
83.5%
10.2%
6.3%
21.0%
20.5%
2010
82.5%
11.2%
6.3%
20.9%
18.0%
2011
80.1%
11.3%
8.6%
17.7%
17.3%
2012
83.8%
8.8%
7.5%
20.9%
14.8%
2013
83.0%
9.3%
7.7%
18.1%
14.5%
2014
81.3%
10.6%
8.2%
17.5%
14.2%
2015
80.4%
9.7%
9.9%
16.0%
12.6%
2016
79.8%
9.1%
11.0%
15.9%
12.2%
2017
79.7%
8.3%
12.0%
16.1%
11.1%
2018
76.5%
9.4%
14.1%
13.4%
10.9%
2019
75.5%
10.1%
14.4%
14.4%
10.2%
2020 (prelim)
71.2%
11.4%
17.4%
14.6%
10.2%
All
Four
Wheel
Drive
17.2%
25.0%
31.3%
31.8%
42.3%
46.3%
48.8%
51.6%
50.4%
56.5%
52.2%
53.1%
55.5%
56.8%
58.5%
61.0%
65.0%
64.3%
67.5%
68.3%
71.4%
72.0%
72.8%
75.6%
75.4%
75.3%
Front
Wheel
Drive
5.3%
25.0%
47.8%
63.8%
57.6%
55.5%
53.8%
52.7%
50.7%
47.7%
53.0%
51.9%
54.3%
54.2%
62.9%
59.6%
53.8%
61.4%
59.7%
55.3%
52.9%
51.2%
49.6%
43.7%
41.6%
38.8%
Rear
Wheel
Drive
91.4%
70.1%
42.9%
26.1%
26.3%
24.3%
24.2%
22.3%
24.3%
22.4%
20.2%
22.3%
19.6%
18.5%
13.6%
13.7%
13.8%
10.9%
11.1%
12.1%
10.9%
10.5%
9.6%
10.2%
10.1%
10.7%
Four
Wheel
Drive
3.3%
4.9%
9.3%
10.1%
16.2%
20.2%
22.0%
25.0%
25.0%
29.8%
26.8%
25.8%
26.1%
27.3%
23.5%
26.7%
32.4%
27.7%
29.1%
32.6%
36.1%
38.3%
40.8%
46.1%
48.3%
50.5%
72
-------
5. Manufacturer GHG Compliance
Manufacturers that produce passenger cars, light-duty trucks, and medium-duty passenger
vehicles for sale in the United States are required to meet greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions
and fuel economy standards. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulates
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through the light-duty GHG program, and the National
Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) regulates fuel economy through the
Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) program. The following analysis is designed to
provide as much information as possible about how manufacturers are performing under
EPA's GHG program, including final compliance data through model year 2019 and credit
trades reported to EPA as of October 31, 2020.
This report has been updated to reflect recent regulatory changes, including the
Safer Affordable Fuel-Efficient (SAFE) Vehicles rule finalized by EPA and NHTSA in April of
2020. The SAFE rule established new light-duty GHG standards for model years 2021 -2026,
which are generally beyond the scope of this report. Other regulatory updates include
alternative standards for small volume manufacturers, and a correction to calculations to
determine the amount of credits created through the sale of advanced technology vehicles.
EPA's GHG program defines standards for each manufacturer's car and truck fleets based
on the average footprint of the vehicles produced for sale. Each manufacturer fleet
generates credits if the fleet average Figure 5.1. The GHG Compliance Process
emissions performance is below the
standards, or deficits if it is above the
standards. Credits, or deficits, that
manufacturers have accrued in previous
model years, credits earned as part of the
early credit program, credit trades, credit
forfeitures, and credit expirations are also
important components in determining the
final compliance status of each
manufacturer. Manufacturers that maintain a
positive, or zero, credit balance are
considered in compliance with the GHG
program. Manufacturers that end any model
year with a deficit have up to three years to
offset that deficit to avoid non-compliance.
1) Calculate
2) Measure
Model Year
Model Year
Standards
Performance
3) Evaluate Credits and Deficits
for each Model Year
Standards vs Performance
Credit Transactions
Credit Expirations
4) Determine Overall Credit
Balance and Compliance
Status
73
-------
The general compliance process that manufacturers follow at the end of each model year is
shown in Figure 5.1.
Averaging, banking, and trading (ABT) provisions have been an important part of many
mobile source programs under the Clean Air Act. These provisions help manufacturers in
planning and implementing a phase-in of emissions reduction technology in their
production that is consistent with their unique redesign schedules. As part of the GHG
program, ABT provisions allow manufacturers to average their car or truck fleet CO2
emissions (i.e., the standards do not apply to individual vehicles), to earn and "bank" credits
by reducing their car or truck fleet performance to below the applicable standards, and to
trade credits between manufacturers. EPA believes the net effect of the ABT provisions is
that they allow additional flexibility, encourage earlier introduction of emission reduction
technologies than might otherwise occur, and do so without reducing the overall
effectiveness of the program.
Manufacturer standards and model
year performance are discussed in
this report as per vehicle emission
rates, measured in grams of CO2 per
mile (g/mi). Any discussion of
manufacturer total credit balances,
credit transactions, and compliance
will be in terms of total mass of CO2
emissions, measured in Megagrams
of CO2 (Mg). The use of a mass-based
metric enables the banking and
trading portions of the GHG program
by accounting for vehicle lifetime
emissions for all vehicles produced.
Converting from an emission rate to
total emissions is straightforward, as
shown in the box on the right.
Unlike the previous sections of this report, the tailpipe CO2 emission data presented in this
section are compliance data, based on EPA's City and Highway test procedures (referred to
as the "2-cycle" tests). These values should not be compared to the estimated real-world
data throughout the rest of this report. For a detailed discussion of the difference between
real-world and compliance data, see Appendix C. To download the data presented in this
section please see the report website: https://www.epa.gov/automotive-trends.
How to Calculate Total Emissions
from an Emission Rate
Total emissions, or credits, are calculated by multiplying a
CO2 emission rate, the production volume of applicable
vehicles, and the expected lifetime vehicle miles travelled
(VMT) of those vehicles. To calculate total emissions, or
credits, the following equation is used:
Credits = ( CO2 Emissions x VMT x Production ) / 1,000,000
In the above equation, "Credits" are measured in megagrams
(Mg) of co2, "CO2 emissions" are measured in grams per
mile (g/mi), and "VMT" is in miles, and specified in the
regulations as 195,264 miles for cars and 225,865 for
trucks. To calculate g/mi from Mg:
CO2 Emissions = ( Credits x 1,000,000 ) / (VMT x Production )
When using these equations to calculate values for cars and
trucks in aggregate, use a production weighted average of
the car and truck VMT values. For the 2019 model year, the
industry wide weighted VMT is 212,269 miles.
74
-------
A. Footprint-Based CO2 Standards
At the end of each model year, manufacturers are required to calculate unique CO2
standards for their car and truck fleets, based on the vehicles produced that model year.
The GHG program uses footprint, which is the area between the four tires, as a metric for
determining the specific standard for each manufacturer's car and truck and fleets.
Manufacturers must calculate new standards each year as the regulations become more
stringent, and as their footprint distribution and production change. See Section 3 for a
discussion of footprint and vehicle production trends and the definitions of "car" and
"truck" under the regulations.
The regulations define footprint "curves" that provide a CO2 emissions target for every
vehicle footprint, as shown in Figure 5.2. For example, a car with a footprint of 46.5 square
feet in model year 2019 (the average car footprint) has a compliance CO2 target of 198.1
g/mi. This is a target and not a standard, as there are no footprint-based CO2 emissions
requirements for individual vehicles at the time of certification. The unique CO2 standards
for each manufacturer's car and truck fleets are production-weighted averages of the CO2
target values, as determined from the curves, for all the unique footprint values of the
vehicles within that fleet. This is an element of the "averaging" approach of the ABT
provisions. Using one production-weighted average to define a single fleet standard allows
for some individual vehicles to be above that standard, while others are below.
Figure 5.2. 2012-2019 Model Year CO2 Footprint Target Curves
2012 Truck
400
~ 350
s
cf
u 300-
0
c
03
1 250
O
2019 Truck
2012 Car
2019 Car
200
40
50
60
70
80
Footprint (sq ft)
75
-------
The footprint curves for the 2012 and 2019 model years are shown in Figure 5.2. The
targets have gradually decreased (become more stringent) from 2012 to the current 2019
levels, as defined in the regulations. Larger vehicles have higher targets, although the
increases are capped beyond a certain footprint size (i.e., the curves become flat). Trucks
have higher targets than cars of the same footprint in the same model year.
In addition to the footprint-based standards, EPA established several alternative standards
for small to intermediate manufacturers. These provisions provide additional lead-time for
manufacturers that may not be able to take full advantage of averaging or other program
flexibilities due to the limited scope of the types of vehicles they sell.
The Temporary Lead-time Allowance Alternative Standards (TLAAS) provisions were
available to manufacturers with production of less than 400,000 vehicles in model year
2009. This provision allowed manufacturers to place vehicles in an alternative car or truck
TLAAS fleet each model year, with those vehicles subject to a less stringent standard. The
standard for a TLAAS fleet was 1.25 times the standard that would have applied to that
fleet based on the footprint-based approach applied to all other car and truck fleets. Each
manufacturer could apply the TLAAS standards to a maximum of 100,000 vehicles,
cumulative over model years 2012-2015. Mercedes, Jaguar Land Rover, Volvo, Porsche,
Ferrari, Aston Martin, Lotus, and McLaren participated in the TLAAS program. The overall
impact of the TLAAS program was less than 1 g/mi for all years it was available.
The intermediate volume provisions allowed intermediate volume manufacturers (those
that produced less than 50,000 vehicles in the 2009 model year) to use an alternative
compliance schedule in model years 2017-2020. Under these provisions, manufacturers
were required to meet the model year 2016 model year standards in the model years 2017
and 2018, delay meeting the 2019-2020 standards by one model year, and finally align with
the primary standards and other manufacturers in the 2021 model year. Jaguar Land Rover
and Volvo are the two manufacturers utilizing these alternative compliance schedules.
Small volume manufacturers, with U.S. production of less than 5,000 vehicles per year,
have additional options under the GHG program. This includes the ability to petition EPA
for alternative standards for model year 2017 and later, and allowing these manufacturers
to meet an established alternative model year 2017 standard in model years 2015 and
2016. Aston Martin, Ferrari, Lotus, and McLaren applied for unique alternative standards
for model years 2017-2021, and EPA established alternative standards for these
manufacturers in a July 2020 determination.13 The four small volume manufacturers that
13 89 FR 39561, July 1, 2020.
¦ ntH 7 6
-------
received alternative standards in thejuly 2020 determination are now included in this
section of the report.
Each manufacturer's standards for model year 2019 are shown in Table 5.1. In model year
2019, average car footprint was about the same as the previous year, at 46.5 square feet,
and truck footprint increased from 53.9 to 54.2 square feet. The more stringent model year
2019 footprint targets, along with changes to the average truck footprint, resulted in a
reduction of the car standard by 11 g/mi, from 209 g/mi to 198 g/mi, and the truck
standard by 7 g/mi, from 279 g/mi to 286 g/mi. While there is no combined car and truck
standard for regulatory purposes, this report will often calculate one to provide an overall
view of the industry and to allow comparison across manufacturers. Overall, the effective
combined car and truck standard decreased in model year 2019 by 6 g/mi, from 252 g/mi
to 246 g/mi. The decrease in the overall effective standard is less than that of cars or trucks
due to the market shift towards trucks, which have a higher standard.
Table 5.1. Manufacturer Footprint and Standards for Model Year 2019
Manufacturer
Footprint (ft2)
Standards (g/mi)
Car
Truck
All
Car
Truck
All
Aston Martin
49.3
-
49.3
380
-
380
BMW
47.7
52.3
49.3
203
272
229
FCA
49.3
56.3
54.9
210
288
275
Ferrari
47.9
-
47.9
395
-
395
Ford
46.9
59.1
55.3
201
300
272
GM
45.9
58.3
54.2
196
295
265
Honda
45.9
50.3
47.8
196
263
227
Hyundai
46.6
49.2
46.6
199
258
200
Jaguar Land Rover
50.0
51.6
51.5
224
277
274
Kia
46.0
49.1
47.0
196
258
218
Mazda
44.9
47.7
46.3
193
251
223
McLaren
47.2
-
47.2
368
-
368
Mercedes
48.6
51.0
49.5
207
266
231
Mitsubishi
41.2
44.2
42.7
181
235
210
Nissan
46.0
52.1
48.1
196
272
225
Subaru
44.9
46.1
45.9
191
243
234
Tesla
49.8
54.8
49.9
212
284
214
Toyota
46.5
52.0
49.5
198
270
239
Volkswagen
45.3
51.2
48.2
193
267
233
Volvo
49.9
51.1
50.8
223
275
264
All Manufacturers
46.5
54.2
50.8
198
279
246
77
-------
B, Model Year Performance
After determining car and truck fleet standards for the model year, manufacturers must
determine the performance value for their car and truck fleets. This is the average
production-weighted CO2 tailpipe emissions of each fleet, including the impact of several
optional performance credits and adjustments. These credits and adjustments allow
manufacturers to benefit from technologies that reduce emissions but are not wholly
captured in standard regulatory tests, provide incentives for manufacturers to adopt
advanced technologies, and provide flexibility in other areas of the program. The available
performance credits and adjustments include:
• Performance credits for producing alternative fuel vehicles
• Performance credits for improving air conditioning systems
• Performance credits for deploying "off-cycle" technologies that reduce emissions
but are not captured on EPA's regulatory test cycles
• Adjustments for utilizing alternate methane and nitrous oxide standards
The impact of these credits and adjustments are integral to the annual model year analysis.
Any performance credits generated must be included in the model year fleet calculations
before a manufacturer can bank or trade credits. In addition, the performance value,
including the impact of the performance credits and adjustments, is the most accurate way
to compare how manufacturers' car and truck fleets are performing in comparison to the
standards within a model year. The standards discussed previously were designed
assuming manufacturers would use these optional provisions; therefore, any comparison
that excludes them is incomplete. Manufacturer tailpipe emissions, and each of the
performance credits and adjustments are examined in detail below.
Tailpipe CO2 Emissions
The starting point for determining compliance for each manufacturer is its "2-cycle" tailpipe
GHG emissions value. All manufacturers are required to test their vehicles on the Federal
Test Procedure (known as the "City" test) and the Highway Fuel Economy Test (the
"Highway" test). Results from these two tests are combined by weighting the City test by
55% and the Highway test by 45%, to achieve a single combined CO2 value for each vehicle
model. Manufacturers then calculate a sales-weighted average of all the combined
city/highway values for each car and truck fleet. This represents the measured tailpipe CO2
emissions of a fleet without the application of any additional performance credits. As
discussed previously in this report, 2-cycle tailpipe CO2 emissions should only be used in
78
-------
the context of the compliance regulations and are not the same as and should not be
compared to the estimated real-world values reported in Sections 1-4.
As part of the GHG program, electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles are included in the 2-
cycle tailpipe calculations with zero g/mi of tailpipe emissions. Plug-in hybrid vehicles
(PHEVs) are allowed to use a zero g/mi value for the portion of operation attributed to the
use of grid electricity (i.e., only emissions from the portion of operation attributed to the
gasoline engine are counted). Use of the zero g/mi option was limited to the first 200,000
qualified vehicles produced by a manufacturer in the 2012-2016 model years. No
manufacturer reached this limit. In the 2017-2026 model years, manufacturers may
continue to use zero g/mi for these vehicles, without any limits.
Figure 5.3 shows the 2-cycle tailpipe emissions reported by each manufacturer for the 2012
and 2019 model years, for all vehicles and for car and truck fleets. Companies that produce
solely electric vehicles (Tesla) are shown separately in the figure because they produce zero
tailpipe emissions on the 2-cycle tests. Figure 5.3 includes all manufacturers that reported
production in 2012 and 2019; there are additional manufacturers that produced vehicles in
that timespan that are not shown.
Every manufacturer that has been in the U.S. market since the GHG program was
implemented in 2012 has reduced fleetwide overall tailpipe GHG emissions, except for
those manufacturers that only produce electric vehicles. Overall, the industry has achieved
a reduction of 20 g/mi. Compliance is assessed on a fleet-specific basis, and most
manufacturers have reduced emissions within their car and truck fleets, some
considerably, leading to reductions of 31 and 51 g/mi in the car and truck fleets,
respectively, since model year 2012. The overall reduction in tailpipe CO2 emissions is
smaller than the reduction in either the car or truck fleets because of the shifting fleet mix
towards trucks.
Compared to the first year of the program, Jaguar Land Rover leads manufacturers in both
the overall reduction in 2-cycle CO2 emissions (109 g/mi) and the percentage reduction
(26%). Eight manufacturers have reduced tailpipe CO2 emissions by 10-16%, while the
remainder produced single digit percentage reductions since the first year of the program.
Overall, tailpipe CO2 emissions of the entire fleet have been reduced by 20 g/mi, or about
7%, since the 2012 model year. These tailpipe values should not be directly compared to
the manufacturer's standards presented in Table 5.1, as the standards were created taking
into consideration the optional performance credits and adjustments available to
manufacturers to reduce their performance values.
79
-------
Figure 5.3. Changes in "2-Cycle" Tailpipe CO2 Emissions, Model Year 2012 to 2019 (g/mi)
Tesla • 0
Mitsubishi
Honda
Subaru
Hyundai
Mazda
Kia -
Nissan
BMW -
VW-
Toyota
Volvo -
Mercedes -
Ford
GM -
Jaguar
Land Rover
FCA
Ferrari
All
Manufacturers
100
150
All
200
2
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3
- J
36
<
-330
(—3
-5
54
43
332
335
34
—319
34
393
S85 —
397
A"V\
5
3*-
84
J
318
369
200
300
400
500
200
300
400
500
200
300
400
500
80
-------
* Vi Mm i.nance Credits for Producing Alterar Foe! \ * h »cles
EPA's GHG program provides performance credits for dedicated and dual fuel alternative
fuel vehicles. Dedicated alternative fuel vehicles run exclusively on an alternative fuel while
dual fuel vehicles can run both on an alternative fuel and on conventional gasoline. This
section describes two pathways for manufacturers to benefit from the production of
alternative fuel vehicles. The first pathway is through a set of defined production
multipliers available for certain alternative fuel vehicles. The second pathway is based on
incentives for gasoline-ethanol flexible fuel vehicles (FFVs), which can run on E85 (85%
ethanol and 15% gasoline), or on conventional gasoline.
Performance Credits for Advanced Technology Vehicles
The GHG program created an incentive for advanced technology vehicles through the
introduction of vehicle "multipliers" for electric vehicles (EVs), plug-in hybrid electric
vehicles (PHEVs), fuel cell vehicles (FCVs), and compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles.
Multipliers allow manufacturers to count these vehicles as more than one vehicle in the
compliance process. For example, the 2.0 multiplier for 2019 model year EVs allows a
manufacturer to count every EV produced as two. The impact of the multipliers is
calculated separately from the main car or truck fleet of each manufacturer, and included
in this report as an advanced technology credit. The multipliers established by rulemaking
are shown in Table 5.2.
Table 5,2, Production Multipliers by Model Year
Model
Year
Electric Vehicles
and Fuel Cell Vehicles
Plug-In Hybrid Electric
Vehicles
Dedicated and Dual-
Fuel Natural Gas
Vehicles
2017
2.0
1.6
1.6
2018
2.0
1.6
1.6
2019
2.0
1.6
1.6
2020
1.75
1.45
1.45
2021
1.5
1.3
1.3
2022-2026
1.0
1.0
2.0
Figure 5.4 shows the model year 2019 production volume of vehicles qualifying for
multiplier incentives. More than 275,000 EVs, PHEVs, and FCVs were produced in the 2019
model year. Of those vehicles, about 70% were EVs, 29% were PHEVs, and almost 1 % were
FCVs. There were no CNG vehicles subject to the GHG standards in the 2019 model year,
81
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and only a limited number of CNG vehicles in prior years. Figure 4.13 in the previous
section shows the overall growth in EVs, PHEVs, and FCVs.
Figure 5.4. Model Year 2019 Production of EVs, PHEVs, and FCVs
o
Electric Vehicles
Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles
Fuel Cell Vehicles
I-
.V
<5?
The impacts of the advanced technology multiplier credit are shown in Figure 5.5. Tesla,
which produces only EVs, achieved 214 g/mi of credit in model year 2019, far above any
other manufacturer. The multiplier reduces Tesla's fleet performance by 214 g/mi, which in
this case is the difference between their standard (214 g/mi, as shown in Table 5.1) and 2-
cycle emissions (which are 0 g/mi). Tesla is shown separately in Figure 5.5 due to the scale
of the credits generated by their vehicles.
After Tesla, Jaguar Land Rover had the highest g/mi effect on their fleet performance, at 8.9
g/mi. Nearly 3% of Jaguar Land Rover's production in model year 2019 was EVs, which was
the highest percentage of EVs for any manufacturer other than Tesla. Volkswagen had the
third highest percentage of EV production in model year 2019, at 2.1 %, which reduced their
fleet performance by 5.9 g/mi. BMW had the highest percentage of PHEVs, at 4.3%,
resulting in a fleet performance benefit of 4.2 g/mi.
82
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Figure 5.5. Model Year 2019 Advanced Technology Credits by Manufacturer
Manufacturers
EPA finalized a technical amendment on March 31, 2020 that corrects the regulations
pertaining to how manufacturers calculate credits for the GHG program's advanced
technology incentives.14 Manufacturers that produced vehicles eligible for these incentives
have resubmitted 2-cycle data to EPA, and this report uses these updated data and
calculations.
Gasoline-Ethanol Flexible Fuel Vehicles
For the 2012 to 2015 model years, FFVs could earn performance credits corresponding to
the fuel economy credits under CAFE. For both programs, it was assumed that FFVs
operated half of the time on each fuel. The GHG credits were based on the arithmetic
average of alternative fuel and conventional fuel CO2 emissions. Further, to fully align the
GHG credit with the CAFE program, the CO2 emissions measurement on the alternative fuel
was multiplied by 0.15. The 0.15 factor was used because, under the CAFE program's
implementing statutes, a gallon of alternative fuel is deemed to contain 0.15 gallons of
14 85 FR 22609, April 23, 2020.
83
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gasoline fuel, and the E85 fuel economy is divided by 0.15 before being averaged with the
gasoline fuel economy.
Starting in model year 2016, GHG compliance values for FFVs are based on the actual
emissions performance of the FFV on each fuel, weighted by EPA's assessment of the actual
use of these fuels in FFVs. In 2014, EPA issued a determination defining an "F factor" of 0.14
to use when weighting E85 and gasoline CO2 emissions for the 2016-2018 model years
FFVs; this reflects EPA's estimate that FFVs would be operating 14% of the time on E85. This
approach is comparable to the "utility factor" method used to weight gasoline and
electricity for PHEVs, which projects the percentage of miles that a PHEV will drive using
electricity based on how many miles a fully-charged PHEV can drive using grid electricity.
EPA also adopted an F-factor of 0.14 for model years 2019 and 2020, and in a separate
action has recently extended the use of 0.14 to model years 2021 and later.15 This value will
continue to apply until EPA issues a new determination.
FFVs can still represent a CO2 emissions benefit, and can help to lower the emissions of a
manufacturer's fleet, but the overall impact is significantly diminished. Because the FFV
values now incorporate the slightly lower CO2 emissions when operating on E85 (typically
1 -3% lower than on gasoline), and a realistic rate of E85 fuel use, the benefit from FFVs is
no longer of the same magnitude that it was through the 2015 model year. Thus, we are no
longer illustrating a g/mi benefit to manufacturers specific to producing FFVs. The impact of
E85, a lower-GHG fuel than gasoline, is inseparable from, and built into, the 2-cycle
emissions described earlier.
Most manufacturers focused their FFV production in the truck segment, with trucks making
up 90% of all FFV production in the 2019 model year. FFV production continued the decline
that started after model year 2014, dropping more than 20% relative to model year 2018
and reaching a low since the start of the program in model year 2012. Total FFV production
in model year 2019 was down by almost 75% relative to model year 2014, the peak year for
FFV production. FFV production is shown in Figure 5.6. The impact of those FFV credits is
shown in Figure 5.7.
15 "E85 Flexible Fuel Vehicle Weighting Factor for Model Years 2020 and Later Vehicles," EPA Office of Air and
Radiation, CD-20-12.
-------
Figure 5.6. Production of FFVs, Model Year 2012-2019
2,500
2,000
O
o
o
c
o
2 1,500
o
=3
"O
o
0- 1,000
500
Car
Truck
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1—
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Model Year
Figure 5.7. FFV Credits by Model Year
o>
TD
a;
O
cd
X
CD
10.0
7.5 -
5.0
2.5
0
2012 2013
2014 2015
2016
2017
2018 2019
Model Year
85
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ance Credits for Improved Air Conditioning Systems
Almost all new cars and light trucks in the United States are equipped with air conditioning
(A/C) systems. There are two mechanisms by which A/C systems contribute to the
emissions of greenhouse gases: through leakage of hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) refrigerants
(i.e., "direct" emissions) and through the combustion of fuel to provide mechanical power
to the A/C system (i.e., "indirect" emissions). The EPA 2-cycle compliance tests do not
measure either A/C refrigerant leakage or the increase in tailpipe emissions attributable to
the additional engine load of A/C systems. Thus, the GHG emission regulations include a
provision that allows manufacturers to earn optional credits for implementing technologies
that reduce either type of A/C-related emissions.
Air Conditioning Leakage Performance Credits
Refrigerants used in automotive air conditioning systems can have high global warming
potentials (GWP)16, such that leakage of a small amount of refrigerant can have a far
greater impact on global warming than emissions of a similar mass of CO2. The impacts of
refrigerant leakage can be reduced significantly by using systems with leak-tight
components, by using a refrigerant with a lower GWP, or by implementing both
approaches.
A manufacturer choosing to generate A/C leakage credits is required to calculate a leakage
"score" for the specific A/C system. This score is based on the number, performance, and
technology of the components, fittings, seals, and hoses of the A/C system and is calculated
as refrigerant emissions in grams per year, using the procedures specified by the SAE
Surface Vehicle Standard J2727. The score is then converted to a g/mi credit value based on
the GWP of the refrigerant. In model year 2012, all leakage credits were based on
improvements to the A/C system components (e.g., O-rings, seals, valves, and fittings).
In model year 2013, GM and Honda introduced vehicles using a refrigerant with a
significantly reduced GWP. This new refrigerant, HFC-1234yf, has a GWP of 4, compared to
a GWP of 1430 for the predominant refrigerant at the time, HFC-134a. In the six model
years since, low GWP refrigerant use has expanded to fifteen manufacturers and more
than 70% of the fleet. Five manufacturers have implemented HFO-1234yf across almost
their entire fleets, with eight additional manufacturers exceeding at least 50% adoption of
HFO-1234yf. The growth in usage of HFO-1234yf is illustrated in Figure 5.8. Nineteen
16 The global warming potential (GWP) represents how much a given mass of a chemical contributes to global
warming over a given time period compared to the same mass of CO2. The GWP of CO2 is 1.0.
86
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manufacturers reported some type of A/C leakage credits in the 2019 model year, resulting
in an overall performance credit of 12.7 g/mi for the industry.
Figure 5.8. HFO-1234yf Adoption by Manufacturer
12,500
10,000
g 7,500 -
"g 5,000 -
2,500 -
0 -
—i 1 1 1 1 1 1—
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
¦
BMW
¦
FCA
¦
Ferra ri
¦
Ford
¦
GM
¦
Honda
Hyundai
¦
Jaguar Land Rover
¦
Kia
¦
Mitsubishi
Nissan
¦
Subaru
¦
Tesla
¦
Toyota
¦
VW
Model Year
Air Conditioning Efficiency Performance Credits
The A/C system also contributes to increased tailpipe CO2 emissions through the additional
work required by the engine to operate the compressor, fans, and blowers. This power
demand is ultimately met by using additional fuel, which is converted into CO2 by the
engine during combustion and exhausted through the tailpipe. Increasing the overall
efficiency of an A/C system reduces the additional load on the engine from A/C operation,
and thereby leads to a reduction in fuel consumption and a commensurate reduction in
GHG emissions.
Most of the additional load on the engine from A/C systems comes from the compressor,
which pressurizes the refrigerant and pumps it around the system loop. A significant
additional load may also come from electric or hydraulic fans, which move air across the
87
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condenser, and from the electric blower, which moves air across the evaporator and into
the cabin. Manufacturers have several options for improving efficiency, including more
efficient compressors, fans, and motors, and system controls that avoid over-chilling the air
(and subsequently re-heating it to provide the desired air temperature). For vehicles
equipped with automatic climate-control systems, real-time adjustment of several aspects
of the overall system can result in improved efficiency.
The regulations provide manufacturers with a "menu" of A/C system technologies and
associated credit values (in g/mi of CO2), some of which are described above. These credits
are capped at 5.7 g/mi for all vehicles in the 2012-2016 model years, and at 5.0 and 7.2
g/mi for cars and trucks, respectively, in the 2017 and later model years. Seventeen
manufacturers reported A/C efficiency credits in 2019, resulting in 5.2 g/mi for the industry.
Air Conditioning Performance Credit Summary
A summary of the A/C leakage and efficiency performance credits reported by the industry
is shown in Figure 5.9. Leakage credits have been more prevalent than efficiency credits,
but both credit types are growing in use. Figure 5.10 shows the benefit of A/C credits, for
each manufacturer's fleet for the 2019 model year. Nineteen manufacturers used the A/C
credit provisions—leakage reductions, efficiency improvements, or both—as part of their
compliance demonstration in the 2019 model year. Jaguar Land Rover had the highest
reported credit on a per vehicle g/mi basis, at 24 g/mi. Thus, A/C credits are the equivalent
of about an 8% reduction from tailpipe emissions for Jaguar Land Rover. More than half of
all manufacturers reported total A/C credits of 15 g/mi or more. The overall industry
reported an average of 18.0 g/mi of total A/C credits.
Performance Credits for "Off-Cycle ifaiiology
In some cases, manufacturers employ technologies that result in CO2 emission reductions
that are not adequately captured on the 2-cycle test procedures. These benefits are
acknowledged in EPA's regulations by giving manufacturers three pathways by which to
accrue "off-cycle" performance credits. The first, and most widely used, pathway is a
predetermined list or "menu" of credit values for specific off-cycle technologies. The second
pathway is to use a broader array of emissions testing (5-cycle testing) to demonstrate the
CO2 emission reduction. The third pathway allows manufacturers to seek EPA approval to
use an alternative methodology to demonstrate CO2 emission reductions.
88
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Figure 5.9. Fleetwide A/C Credits by Credit Type
15
E
3
-2 10
TD
CD
i_
o
0
1
° 5
Credit Source
A'C Efficiency
¦ A/C Leakage
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Model Year
Figure 5.10. Total A/C Credits by Manufacturer for Model Year 2019
25
20
J
3 15
13
a>
i
O
(D
X
(J
10
Credit Source
A/C Efficiency
¦ A/C Leakage
&>
>6 ^ ^ <=#¦
89
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Off Cycle Performance Credits Based on the Menu
The first pathway to generating off-cycle credits is for a manufacturer to install
technologies from a predetermined list or "menu" of technologies preapproved by EPA. The
off-cycle credit menu provides specific credit values, or the calculation method for such
values, for each technology.17 Technologies from the menu may be used beginning in
model year 2014. This pathway allows manufacturers to use conservative credit values
established by EPA for a wide range of off-cycle technologies, with minimal data submittal
or testing requirements.
The regulations clearly define each technology and any requirements that apply for the
technology to generate credits. Figure 5.11 shows the adoption of menu technologies, by
manufacturer. The amount of credit awarded varies for each technology and between cars
and trucks. The impact of credits from this pathway on a manufacturer's fleet is capped at
10 g/mi, meaning that any single vehicle might accumulate more than 10 g/mi, but the
cumulative effect on a single manufacturer's fleet may not exceed a credit of more than 10
g/mi. Off-cycle technology credits based on the menu were widely used in model year 2019,
with more than 90% of off-cycle credits generated via the menu pathway. Each of these
technologies is discussed below.
Active Aerodynamics
Active aerodynamics refers to technologies which are automatically activated to improve
the aerodynamics of a vehicle under certain conditions. These include grill shutters and
spoilers, which allow air to flow over and around the vehicle more efficiently, and
suspension systems that improve air flow at higher speeds by reducing the height of the
vehicle. Credits are variable and based on the measured improvement in the coefficient of
drag, a test metric that reflects the efficiency of airflow around a vehicle. Most
manufacturers implemented at least some level of active aerodynamics on their model
year 2019 vehicles. Tesla reported the highest implementation, at 100% of all new vehicles.
Overall, 45% of new vehicles qualified for these credits, reducing overall fleet CO2
emissions by 0.4 g/mi.
17 See 40 CFR 86.1869-12(b).
-------
Figure 5.11. Off-Cycle Menu Technology Adoption by Manufacturer, Model
Year 2019
Aston Martin
BMW
FCA
Ferrari
Ford
GM
Honda
Hyundai
Jaguar
Land Rover
Kia
Mazda
McLaren -
Mercedes
Mitsubishi
Nissan
Subaru
Tesla
Toyota
VW
Volvo
All
Manufacturers
65%
100%
13%
29%
69%
100%
51%
99%
99%
4%
92%
47%
49%
70%
100%
15%
83%
25%
100%
100%
8%
41%
73%
77%
65%
65%
20%
100%
100%
22%
48%
2%
57%
91%
35%
7%
100%
100%
4%
6%
94%
18%
100%
7%
84%
11%
85%
17%
5%
73%
a n/
49%
4%
82%
60%
100%
100%
93%
97%
100%
6%
67%
8%
100%
22%
7%
69%
8%
70%
22%
74%
96%
61%
42%
100%
100%
100%
21%
89%
99%
73%
5%
2%
85%
37%
5%
65%
35%
16%
37%
54%
0%
77%
51%
3%
93%
90%
23%
79%
100%
100%
100%
100%
10%
25%
74%
99%
19%
38%
60%
22%
94%
37%
16%
63%
2%
96%
10%
84%
73%
16%
100%
100%
29%
100%
4%
100%
42%
9%
16%
87%
70%
11%
40%
51%
37%
82%
T-
T"
V®
^e>
-------
Thermal Control Technologies
Thermal control systems help to maintain a comfortable air temperature of the vehicle
interior, without the use of the A/C system. These technologies lower the load on the A/C
system and thus the amount of fuel required to run the A/C system, subsequently lowering
GHG tailpipe emissions. The thermal control technologies included in the off-cycle menu
are:
• Active and passive cabin ventilation - Active systems use mechanical means to
vent the interior, while passive systems rely on ventilation through convective air
flow. Credits available for this technology range from 1.7 to 2.8 g/mi.
• Active seat ventilation - These systems move air through the seating surface,
transferring heat away from the vehicle occupants. Credits are 1.0 g/mi for cars
and 1.3 g/mi for trucks.
• Glass or glazing - Credits are available for glass or glazing technologies that
reduce the total solar transmittance through the glass, thus reducing the heat
from the sun that reaches the occupants. The credits are calculated based on
the measured solar transmittance through the glass and on the total area of
glass on the vehicle.
• Solar reflective surface coating - Credits are available for solar reflective surface
coating (e.g., paint) that reflects at least 65% of the infrared solar energy. Credits
are 0.4 g/mi for cars and 0.5 g/mi for trucks.
Active cabin ventilation was installed on 9% of all new vehicles in model year 2019, with
high rates of installation from Tesla, Hyundai, Kia, and BMW. No other manufacturers used
active cabin ventilation technologies in model year 2019. Passive cabin ventilation
technologies, however, were used much more widely, with seven manufacturers at or near
100% implementation, and a 70% adoption rate overall.
Active seat ventilation was used by many manufacturers and the rate of implementation
remained about the same at 16% in model year 2019. Jaguar Land Rover was the leader in
adopting active seat ventilation, with implementation on about 60% of their vehicles. As
was the case in the previous model year, there was significant penetration of glass or
glazing technology with more than 85% of the model year 2019 vehicles equipped with
glass or glazing technologies. Solar reflective coatings have been used less widely, with a
penetration of 11% across new vehicles in model year 2019, and no manufacturer above
30%.
-------
Due to the likelihood of synergistic effects among the various thermal technologies, the
total credit allowed from this technology group is capped at 3.0 g/mi for cars and 4.3 g/mi
for trucks. Overall, about 94% of new vehicles in model year 2019 received credits from at
least one of the thermal control technologies, which reduces overall fleet CO2 emissions by
2.7 g/mi
Active Engine and Transmission Warmup
Active engine and transmission warmup systems use heat from the vehicle that would
typically be wasted (exhaust heat, for example) to warm up key elements of the engine,
allowing a faster transition to more efficient operation. An engine or transmission at its
optimal operating temperature minimizes internal friction, and thus operates more
efficiently and reduces tailpipe CO2 emissions. Systems that use a single heat-exchanging
loop that serves both transmission and engine warmup functions are eligible for either
engine or transmission warmup credits, but not both. Active engine and transmission
warmup technologies are each worth credit up to 1.5 g/mi for cars and 3.2 g/mi for trucks.
Most manufacturers adopted warmup technologies for their engines, transmissions, or
both. Active engine warmup was installed in about 40% of all new vehicles, and active
transmission warmup in 51 % of the fleet, resulting in a CO2 reduction of about 2.2 g/mi
across the 2019 model year fleet. FCA, Volkswagen, and Volvo led the industry in active
engine warmup, with nearly all their new vehicles employing the technology. Mazda,
Honda, Subaru, Jaguar Land Rover, and McLaren led the industry in active transmission
warmup technologies, with nearly all their new vehicles utilizing these technologies.
Engine Idle Stop/Start
Engine idle stop/start systems allow the engine to turn off when the vehicle is at a stop,
automatically restarting the engine when the driver releases the brake and/or applies
pressure to the accelerator. If equipped with a switch to disable the system, EPA must
determine that the predominant operating mode of the system is the "on" setting
(defaulting to "on" every time the key is turned on is one basis for such a determination).
Thus, some vehicles with these systems are not eligible for credits. Credits range from 1.5
to 4.4 g/mi and depend on whether the system is equipped with an additional technology
that, at low ambient temperatures, allows heat to continue to be circulated to the vehicle
occupants when the engine is off during a stop-start event.
The implementation of stop/start has been increasing rapidly, as discussed in Section 4,
which aggregates and reports on these systems regardless of the regulatory eligibility for
credits. In model year 2019, 37% of new vehicles qualified for and claimed this credit,
fiilli 33
-------
resulting in a fleetwide CO2 reduction of about 1.4 g/mi. Jaguar Land Rover and McLaren
claimed start/stop credits on nearly 100% of their vehicles in model year 2019, with
Volkswagen and Ford both installing stop/start systems on more than 75% of their new
vehicles.
High Efficiency Exterior Lights
High efficiency lights (e.g., LEDs) reduce the total electric demand, and thus the fuel
consumption and related GHG emissions, of a lighting system in comparison to
conventional incandescent lighting. Credits are based on the specific lighting locations,
ranging from 0.06 g/mi for turn signals and parking lights to 0.38 g/mi for low beams. The
total of all lighting credits summed from all lighting locations may not exceed 1.0 g/mi.
Unlike some other off-cycle technologies, safety regulations require that all vehicles must
be equipped with lights, and the popularity of high efficiency lights across manufacturers
may reflect that lighting improvements are relatively straightforward to implement. All
manufacturers reporting off-cycle credits indicated implementation on at least half of their
fleet (except for Aston Martin), with many manufacturers at or approaching 100%
implementation. More than 80% of new vehicles used high efficiency lighting in some form
in model year 2019, reducing fleetwide CO2 emissions by 0.4 g/mi.
Solar Panels
Vehicles that use batteries for propulsion, such as electric, plug-in hybrid electric, and
hybrid vehicles may receive credits for solar panels that are used to charge the battery
directly or to provide power directly to essential vehicle systems (e.g., heating and cooling
systems). Credits are based on the rated power of the solar panels. Nissan claimed this
credit in model year 2017 for a very small number of vehicles, but no manufacturer
claimed use of solar panels in model year 2019.
Summary of Off-Cycle Menu-Based Performance Credits
As shown in Table 5.3, manufacturers are using a mix of off-cycle menu technologies,
though each uses and benefits from the individual technologies to differing degrees. In
model year 2019, the industry achieved 6.9 g/mi of credits from the menu, based on a
production weighted average of credits across all manufacturers. FCA, Ford, and Jaguar
Land Rover reached the 10 g/mi cap in 2019. For those manufacturers, the sum of the
credits from individual technologies in Table 5.3 will exceed the total allowable credits, and
only the 10 g/mi value will be used in subsequent calculations.
-------
Table 5.3, Model Year 2019 Off-Cycle Technology Credits from the Menu, by
Manufacturer and Technology (g/mi)
Active
Active
Active
Engine
High
Total
Aero-
Engine
Trans
Thermal
Start-
Efficiency
Menu
Manufacturer
dynamics
Warmup
Warmup
Controls
Stop
Lighting
Credits
Aston Martin
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BMW
1.2
0.8
-
2.5
2.0
0.9
7.4
FCA
0.4
2.7
1.5
3.8
2.1
0.2
10.0
Ferrari
-
-
-
-
-
0.7
0.7
Ford
1.1
1.1
2.1
3.3
3.1
0.2
10.0
GM
0.7
1.2
0.0
3.7
2.2
0.5
8.4
Honda
0.1
0.1
2.2
2.9
0.7
0.4
6.4
Hyundai
0.1
0.1
1.1
0.8
0.1
0.1
2.3
Jaguar Land Rover
0.6
-
2.9
3.8
4.1
0.4
10.0
Kia
0.0
0.1
1.6
1.0
0.2
0.1
3.1
Mazda
-
-
2.3
1.0
-
0.1
3.5
McLaren
0.4
-
1.5
-
1.5
0.9
4.3
Mercedes
-
-
-
1.1
-
0.9
1.9
Mitsubishi
-
-
-
0.8
0.0
0.3
1.1
Nissan
0.2
0.7
1.1
1.1
0.0
0.3
3.5
Subaru
0.2
-
2.7
1.1
0.7
0.4
5.1
Tesla
1.1
-
-
3.0
-
0.7
4.7
Toyota
0.1
0.2
1.4
3.4
0.9
0.4
6.4
VW
0.2
2.3
0.3
0.7
2.8
0.5
6.8
Volvo
-
2.8
-
3.6
0.2
1.0
7.6
All Manufacturers
0.4
0.9
1.3
2.7
1.4
0.4
6.9
Off-Cycle Performance Credits Based on 5-Cycle Testing
In cases where additional laboratory testing can demonstrate emission benefits, a second
pathway allows manufacturers to use a broader array of emission tests (known as "5-cycle"
testing because the methodology uses five different testing procedures) to demonstrate
and justify off-cycle CO2 credits.18 The additional emission tests allow emission benefits to
be demonstrated over elements of real-world driving not captured by the GHG compliance
tests, including high speeds, rapid accelerations, and cold temperatures. Credits
determined according to this methodology do not undergo additional public review.
GM is the only manufacturer to date to have claimed off-cycle credits based on 5-cycle
testing. These credits are for an auxiliary electric pump used on certain GM gasoline-
electric hybrid vehicles to keep engine coolant circulating in cold weather while the vehicle
18 See 40 CFR 86.1869-12(c).
95
-------
is stopped and the engine is off. This enables the engine stop-start system to turn off the
engine more often during cold weather, while maintaining a comfortable temperature
inside the vehicle. GM received off-cycle credits during the early credits program for
equipping hybrid full size pick-up trucks with this technology and has since applied the
technology to several other vehicles through model year 2017. They did not claim credits
for this technology in model year 2019.
Off-Cycle Performance Credits Based on an Alternative Methodology
This third pathway for off-cycle technology performance credits allows manufacturers to
seek EPA approval to use an alternative methodology for determining off-cycle technology
CO2 credits.19 This option is only available if the benefit of the technology cannot be
adequately demonstrated using the 5-cycle methodology. Manufacturers may also use this
option for model years prior to 2014 to demonstrate CO2 reductions for technologies that
are on the off-cycle menu, or reductions that exceed those available via use of the menu.
The regulations require that EPA seek public comment on and publish each manufacturer's
application for credits sought using this pathway. About half of the manufacturers have
petitioned for and been granted credits using this pathway in the 2019 model year.20
In the fall of 2013, Mercedes requested off-cycle credits for the following off-cycle
technologies in use or planned for implementation in the 2012-2016 model years: stop-
start systems, high-efficiency lighting, infrared glass glazing, and active seat ventilation. EPA
approved methodologies for Mercedes to determine these off-cycle credits in September
2014. Subsequently, FCA, Ford, and GM requested off-cycle credits under this pathway,
which EPA approved in September 2015. FCA and Ford submitted applications for off-cycle
credits from high efficiency exterior lighting, solar reflective glass/glazing, solar reflective
paint, and active seat ventilation. Ford's application also demonstrated off-cycle benefits
from active aerodynamic improvements (grill shutters), active transmission warm-up, active
engine warm-up technologies, and engine idle stop-start. GM's application described the
real-world benefits of an A/C compressor made by Denso with variable crankcase suction
valve technology. EPA approved the credits for FCA, Ford, and GM in September of 2015.
EPA approved additional credits under this pathway for the Denso compressor in 2017 for
BMW, Ford, GM, Hyundai, Toyota, and Volkswagen.
engine-certification/compliance-information-light-duty-greenhouse-gas-ghg-
96
-------
In December 2016, EPA approved a methodology for determining credits from high-
efficiency alternators that Ford had applied for in 2016. EPA subsequently approved high-
efficiency alternator credits also for FCA, GM, and Toyota. High efficiency alternators use
new technologies that reduce the overall load on the engine while continuing to meet the
electrical demands of the vehicle systems, resulting in lower fuel consumption and lower
CO2 emissions.
In September of 2017 GM applied for credits under this pathway for "active climate-
controlled seats," which provide cooled air directly to the occupants through the seats, thus
reducing the overall load on the air conditioning system. GM reported credits for this
technology in the 2018 and 2019 model year. The most recent addition to the list of
technologies receiving credits through the alternative methodology pathway came in
October 2019 with the approval of a pulse width modulated brushless motor power
controller. This "brushless motor" technology is used to improve the efficiency of the HVAC
system. Toyota applied for and received the brushless motor credit for the 2013 through
2019 model years.
Most of the approved credits have been for previous model years, and thus are not
included in the detailed reporting for the 2019 model year in this section. Credit balances
have been updated to include retroactive credits that have been reported to EPA, and any
relevant tables that include data from previous model years will reflect the addition of
these credits. Table 5.4 shows the impact of the credits submitted for brushless motors,
improved air conditioning systems, high-efficiency alternators, and active climate-
controlled seats. On a total fleetwide basis, the aggregated credit is 0.6 g/mi.
Table 5.4. Model Year 2019 Off-Cycle Technology Credits from an Alternative
Methodology, by Manufacturer and Technology (g/mi)
Active Total
Improved High- Climate Alternative
Brushless A/C Efficiency Control Methodology
Manufacturer
Motors
Systems
Alternator
Seats
Credits
FCA
-
-
0.5
-
0.5
Ford
-
0.2
0.6
-
0.8
GM
-
0.6
0.7
0.0
1.3
Honda
-
-
0.3
-
0.3
Hyundai
-
-
0.5
-
0.5
Kia
-
-
0.4
-
0.4
Nissan
-
0.1
0.2
-
0.3
Subaru
0.0
-
0.6
-
0.6
Toyota
0.1
0.1
0.3
-
0.6
All Manufacturers
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.0
0.6
97
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Off-Cycle Performance Credit Summary
In total, the industry achieved 7.5 g/mi of off-cycle performance credits in model year 2019.
More than 90% of those credits were claimed using technologies, and credit definitions, on
the off-cycle menu. The remaining credits were due almost entirely to manufacturer
submitted alternative methodologies. Figure 5.12 shows the average credit, in g/mi, that
each manufacturer achieved in model year 2019. Ford led the way with the highest gram
per mile benefit from off-cycle credits, followed closely by FCA, Jaguar Land Rover, and GM.
Most manufacturers achieved at least some off-cycle credits; Aston Martin was the only
manufacturer to not report any off-cycle credits for model year 2019.
Figure 5.12. Total Off-Cycle Credits by Manufacturer for Model Year 2019
12
E
15)
TJ
-------
There are three different ways for a manufacturer to demonstrate compliance with these
standards. First, manufacturers may submit test data as they do for all other non-GHG
emission standards; this option is used by most manufacturers. Because there are no
credits or deficits involved with this approach, and there are no consequences with respect
to the CO2 fleet average calculation, the manufacturers are not required to submit this data
as part of their GHG reporting. Hence, this GHG compliance report does not include
information from manufacturers using this option.
The second option for manufacturers is to include CH4 and N2O, on a C02-equivalent basis,
when calculating their fleet average performance values, in lieu of demonstrating
compliance with the regulatory caps. This method directly accounts for CH4 and N2O,
increasing the performance value of a manufacturer's fleets, while the standards remain
unchanged. Analyses of emissions data have shown that use of this option may add
approximately 3 g/mi to a manufacturer's fleet average. Only Subaru chose to use this
approach in the 2019 model year.
The third option for complying with the CH4 and N2O standards allows manufacturers to
propose an alternative, less stringent CH4 and/or N2O standard for any vehicle that may
have difficulty meeting the specific standards. However, manufacturers that use this
approach must also calculate the increased emissions due to the less stringent standards
and the production volumes of the vehicles to which those standards apply, and then add
that impact from their overall fleet performance. Nine manufacturers made use of the
flexibility offered by this approach in the 2019 model year. In aggregate, the impact of this
approach was an increase in the industry-wide performance of about 0.1 g/mi.21
Summary of Manufacturer Performance
Each of the performance credits and adjustments described here have been used by
manufacturers as part of their compliance strategies under the GHG program. As
described above, the availability of these provisions, and the magnitude of their impact,
has varied both by manufacturer and model year. Table 5.5 through Table 5.10 below
detail the impact of these provisions by manufacturer for model year 2019, and for the
aggregated industry over the course of the GHG Program. The performance values in these
tables can be derived by subtracting the credits and adjustment from the 2-Cycle Tailpipe
value.
21 The impact of the alternative standards for methane and nitrous oxide is based on data submitted to EPA
prior to October 31, 2020. These submissions remain under review by EPA.
-------
Table 5.5, Manufacturer Performance in Model Year 2019, All (g/mi)
Performance Credits and Adjustments
2-Cycle Adv. Off- CH4 & Performance
Manufacturer
Tailpipe
Tech
FFV
A/C
Cycle
n2o
Value
Aston Martin
347
-
-
4.5
-
-
342
BMW
266
4.2
-
20.6
7.4
-
234
FCA
336
0.3
-
21.8
10.5
-0.0
303
Ferrari
416
-
-
16.7
0.7
-
399
Ford
312
0.6
-
20.6
10.8
-0.3
280
GM
314
2.0
-
21.0
9.7
-0.1
282
Honda
239
0.5
-
19.9
6.6
-
212
Hyundai
243
3.1
-
14.2
2.7
-0.1
223
Jaguar Land Rover
317
8.9
-
24.0
10.0
-
274
Kia
250
2.4
-
18.1
3.4
-0.1
226
Mazda
248
-
-
3.4
3.5
-1.0
242
McLaren
393
-
-
-
4.3
-
389
Mercedes
298
2.3
-
12.3
1.9
-
282
Mitsubishi
227
0.6
-
12.6
1.1
-
212
Nissan
258
2.4
-
11.3
3.8
-0.0
241
Subaru
242
0.3
-
14.7
5.7
-
222
Tesla
0
214.0
-
17.0
4.7
-
-236
Toyota
269
0.5
-
15.1
6.9
-0.1
247
VW
267
5.9
-
20.0
6.8
-0.0
235
Volvo
277
3.1
-
12.5
7.6
-
254
All Manufacturers
282
3.0
_
18.0
7.5
-0.1
253
Table 5.6, Industry Performance by Model Year, All {g/mi}
Performance Credits and Adjustments
2-Cycle Adv. Off- CH4 & Performance
Model Year
Tailpipe
Tech
FFV
A/C
Cycle
n2o
Value
2012
302
-
8.1
6.1
1.0
-0.2
287
2013
294
-
7.8
6.9
1.1
-0.3
278
2014
294
-
8.9
8.5
3.3
-0.2
273
2015
286
-
6.4
9.4
3.4
-0.2
267
2016
285
-
-
10.3
3.6
-0.1
271
2017
284
2.2
-
13.8
5.4
-0.2
262
2018
280
3.7
-
16.3
6.8
-0.1
253
2019
282
3.0
-
18.0
7.5
-0.1
253
)
-------
Table 5.7, Manufacturer Performance in Model Year 2019, Car (g/mi)
Performance Credits and Adjustments
2-Cycle Adv. Off- CH4 & Performance
Manufacturer
Tailpipe
Tech
FFV
A/C
Cycle
n2o
Value
Aston Martin
347
-
-
4.5
-
342
BMW
248
6.8
-
18.6
5.2
-
218
FCA
302
0.3
-
18.4
5.6
-0.0
278
Ferrari
416
-
-
16.7
0.7
-
399
Ford
253
2.0
-
16.5
6.3
-0.2
228
GM
243
6.8
-
15.8
6.7
-0.0
214
Honda
206
0.9
-
16.9
4.3
-
184
Hyundai
241
3.1
-
14.3
2.7
-0.1
221
Jaguar Land Rover
282
-
-
18.7
6.0
-
257
Kia
221
3.7
-
16.6
2.5
-0.2
198
Mazda
230
-
-
1.8
2.0
-0.2
226
McLaren
393
-
-
-
4.3
-
389
Mercedes
276
0.6
-
11.1
1.6
-
263
Mitsubishi
198
1.2
-
5.9
0.6
-
190
Nissan
217
3.9
-
11.6
2.7
-0.0
199
Subaru
238
-
-
5.7
2.2
-
230
Tesla
0
211.9
-
16.9
4.6
-
-233
Toyota
211
1.2
-
14.1
5.1
-0.1
191
VW
227
3.3
-
17.9
3.7
-0.0
202
Volvo
255
2.1
-
9.7
4.9
-
238
All Manufacturers
228
6.3
_
14.8
4.3
-0.1
203
Table 5,8, Industry Performance by Model Vsw, 0
-------
Table 5.9, Manufacturer Performance in Model Year 2013, Truck (g/mi)
Performance Credits and Adjustments
Manufacturer
2-Cycle
Tailpipe
Adv.
Tech
FFV
A/C
Off-
Cycle
ch4&
n2o
Performance
Value
Aston Martin
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BMW
297
-
-
24.1
11.1
-
262
FCA
343
0.3
-
22.5
11.5
-0.1
309
Ferrari
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Ford
335
-
-
22.2
12.6
-0.4
301
GM
345
-
-
23.3
11.0
-0.1
311
Honda
278
-
-
23.5
9.4
-
245
Hyundai
339
-
-
6.9
5.8
-
326
Jaguar Land Rover
319
9.5
-
24.4
10.3
-
275
Kia
301
-
-
20.6
5.1
-
275
Mazda
264
-
-
4.8
4.9
-1.9
256
McLaren
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Mercedes
332
4.9
-
14.2
2.4
-
310
Mitsubishi
251
-
-
18.3
1.4
-
231
Nissan
323
-
-
10.9
5.6
-
307
Subaru
243
0.4
-
16.5
6.4
-
220
Tesla
0
284.2
-
20.5
8.3
-
-313
Toyota
313
-
-
15.9
8.4
-0.1
289
VW
302
8.2
-
21.7
9.5
-0.0
263
Volvo
283
3.3
-
13.3
8.3
-
258
All Manufacturers
318
0.7
-
20.2
9.7
-0.1
288
Table 5,10, Industry Performance by Mode; Ycmi, itudcfg/mi)
Performance Credits and Adjustments
2-Cycle Adv. Off- CH4 & Performance
Model Year
Tailpipe
Tech
FFV
A/C
Cycle
n2o
Value
2012
369
-
14.5
7.3
1.6
-0.3
346
2013
360
-
13.8
7.9
1.7
-0.3
337
2014
349
-
14.3
9.7
4.6
-0.1
321
2015
336
-
10.3
11.0
4.6
-0.2
310
2016
332
-
-
11.8
5.1
-0.2
316
2017
330
0.2
-
17.3
7.4
-0.3
305
2018
320
0.6
-
19.0
9.0
-0.2
292
2019
318
0.7
-
20.2
9.7
-0.1
288
102
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C. GHG Program Credits and Deficits
The previous two sections outlined how to determine manufacturer standards and
manufacturer performance values for the current model year. The next step in the
compliance process it to compare the car and truck standards to the corresponding
performance values to determine if each fleet was above or below the standards. This
process then allows manufacturers to determine if each fleet will create GHG program
credits or deficits. These program credits are the credits available to manufacturers to
bank, trade, and ultimately show compliance with the overall GHG program.
Program credits are always expressed as mass-based credits in megagrams of CO2. A mass-
based credit metric captures the performance of each manufacturer's fleets relative to the
standards, the total number of vehicles produced in each fleet, and the expected lifetime
vehicle miles travelled for those vehicles. This conversion is necessary to enable the
banking and trading of credits across manufacturer fleets, model years, and between
manufacturers. To convert g/mi emission rates to total emission reductions in Mg, see the
insert "How to Calculate Total Emissions from an Emission Rate" at the beginning of this
section.
Manufacturers also had a limited, and voluntary, option to generate program credits in
model years 2009 through 2011 from early technology adoption before the standards went
into effect. Credit trades between manufacturers, credit expirations, and credit forfeitures,
are also important in determining the overall program credits available to manufacturers.
This section will detail these components of the GHG program, which are essential in
determining manufacturer overall credit balances and manufacturer compliance with the
GHG program.
Generating Credits and Deficits from Model Year Performance
Manufacturers can calculate the credits or deficits created within a model year by
comparing their car and truck fleet standards to their respective performance values and
converting from a gram per mile emission rate to a mass-based total. When a car or truck
fleet is below the applicable standard, that fleet generates credits for the manufacturer.
Conversely, when a car or truck fleet is above the applicable standard, that fleet generates
deficits.
The GHG program evaluates car and truck fleets separately, which means that there is no
single, overall standard for manufacturers. However, it is possible to calculate an effective
overall manufacturer standard, and performance value, from the underlying passenger car
103
-------
and truck data. Figure 5.13 illustrates the performance of all manufacturers in model year
2019, compared to their effective overall standards.
Of the 20 manufacturers that produced vehicles in model year 2019, five were below their
overall effective standards, and one manufacturer was even with the standards. Tesla,
Honda, Subaru, Volvo, and Aston Martin were all below their standards, and generated net
credits (accounting for credits and deficits from each manufacturer's car and truck fleets).
Jaguar Land Rover was even with their effective overall standard but generated a small
number of credits. Fourteen manufacturers were above their standards and generated net
deficits in model year 2019. The fact that manufacturers were above their standards in
Figure 5.13 does not mean that these manufacturers were out of compliance with the GHG
program, as discussed later in this report.
Figure 5.13. Performance and Standards by Manufacturer, Model Year 2019
Mercedes
FCA
Hyundai
McLaren
Mazda
GM
Nissan
Toyota
Ford
Kia
BMW
Ferrari
VW
Mitsubishi
Jaguar Land Rover
Volvo
Subaru
Honda
Aston Martin
Tesla
| Standard
It Performance
Above Standard
Below Standard
2751 303
2001 223
368 389
223 242
265 282
225 241
239 247
272 280
218 226
229 234
233 235
210 212
274 274
395 399
I
212
227
¦
342
-236
214!
1
380
1 1—
0 200
Compliance GHG (g/mi)
-200
400
104
-------
In model year 2019, eight manufacturers generated credits from their truck fleets, while
nine generated deficits. Four manufacturers generated credits with their car fleets,
compared to 16 that generated deficits. Table 5.11 through Table 5.16 provide a summary
of the standards, manufacturer performance, and the credits and deficits generated by
each manufacturer's car and truck fleets for model year 2019, and for the aggregated
industry for model years 2009-2019 (including early credits). These tables show only credits
generated within a model year, and do not account for credits used to offset deficits in
other model years, credits that are traded between manufacturers, or credits that have
expired or been forfeited. The tables showing combined car and truck, or overall industry
values, are aggregated from the underlying car and truck data.
105
-------
Table 5.11. Credits Earned by Manufacturers in Model Year 2019, All
Performance
Standard
Credits
Value
Standard
Exceedance
Generated
Manufacturer
(g/mi)
(g/mi)
(g/mi) Production
(Mg)
Aston Martin
342
380
-38
2,069
15,170
BMW
234
229
5
360,345
-392,573
FCA
303
275
28
2,109,158
-13,345,869
Ferrari
399
395
4
2,659
-1,853
Ford
280
272
8
1,816,423
-3,221,756
GM
282
265
17
2,554,431
-9,013,157
Honda
212
227
-15
1,730,544
5,307,829
Hyundai
223
200
23
654,883
-2,933,640
Jaguar Land Rover
274
274
0
105,504
306
Kia
226
218
8
580,746
-923,819
Mazda
242
223
19
267,020
-1,053,413
McLaren
389
368
21
1,382
-5,599
Mercedes
282
231
51
312,501
-3,304,783
Mitsubishi
212
210
2
123,924
-57,646
Nissan
241
225
16
1,366,419
-4,256,602
Subaru
222
234
-12
775,379
2,157,106
Tesla
-236
214
-450
125,538
11,070,481
Toyota
247
239
8
2,371,840
-3,799,467
VW
235
233
2
770,284
-302,728
Volvo
254
264
-10
108,275
240,374
All Manufacturers 253
246
7
16,139,324
-23,821,639
Fable 5,12, Total Credits Earned in Model Years 2009-2019, All
Performance
Standard
Credits
Model
Value Standard
Exceedance
Generated
Credit
Year
(g/mi) (g/mi)
(g/mi)
Production
(Mg)
Expiration
2009
-
-
-
98,522,058
2014
2010
-
-
-
96,891,340
2021
2011
-
-
-
38,770,273
2021
2012
287 299
-12
13,446,550
33,033,097
2021
2013
278 292
-14
15,200,118
42,234,774
2021
2014
273 287
-13
15,514,338
43,292,494
2021
2015
267 274
-7
16,740,264
25,218,704
2021
2016
271 263
8
16,279,911
-27,615,344
2021
2017
262 258
5
17,015,504
-16,203,034
2022
2018
253 252
1
16,259,244
-4,168,218
2023
2019
253 246
7
16,139,324
-23,821,639
2024
106
-------
Table 5.13. Credits Earned by Manufacturers in Model Year 2019, Car
Performance
Standard
Credits
Value
Standard Exceedance
Generated
Manufacturer
(g/mi)
(g/mi)
(g/mi) Production
(Mg)
Aston Martin
342
380
-38
2,069
15,170
BMW
218
203
15
238,033
-674,229
FCA
278
210
68
405,487
-5,361,078
Ferrari
399
395
4
2,659
-1,853
Ford
228
201
27
568,345
-3,041,035
GM
214
196
18
847,067
-2,927,214
Honda
184
196
-12
992,811
2,328,418
Hyundai
221
199
22
643,662
-2,760,630
Jaguar Land Rover
257
224
33
7,147
-46,484
Kia
198
196
2
389,497
-175,317
Mazda
226
193
33
139,005
-903,813
McLaren
389
368
21
1,382
-5,599
Mercedes
263
207
56
198,525
-2,160,289
Mitsubishi
190
181
9
61,266
-110,428
Nissan
199
196
3
883,582
-489,564
Subaru
230
191
39
148,610
-1,135,982
Tesla
-233
212
-445
122,326
10,637,339
Toyota
191
198
-7
1,108,873
1,573,002
VW
202
193
9
384,640
-682,532
Volvo
238
223
15
25,561
-76,277
All Manufacturers
203
198
4
7,170,547
-5,998,395
Table KM. U>tal Credits Earned in Model Years 2009-2019, Car
Performance
Standard
Credits
Model
Value
Standard
Exceedance
Generated
Credit
Year
(g/mi)
(g/mi)
(g/mi)
Production
(Mg)
Expiration
2009
-
-
-
-
58,018,752
2014
2010
-
-
-
-
50,856,700
2021
2011
-
-
-
-
8,831,637
2021
2012
249
267
-18
8,657,393
30,484,967
2021
2013
240
261
-21
9,747,624
39,249,608
2021
2014
236
253
-17
9,209,352
30,407,996
2021
2015
230
241
-12
9,602,215
22,043,043
2021
2016
229
231
-2
9,012,178
3,411,251
2021
2017
217
219
-2
8,954,269
2,705,030
2022
2018
204
209
-6
7,800,108
8,396,572
2023
2019
203
198
4
7,170,547
-5,998,395
2024
107
-------
Table 5.15. Credits Earned by Manufacturers in Model Year 2019, Truck
Performance
Standard
Credits
Value
Standard
Exceedance
Generated
Manufacturer
(g/mi)
(g/mi)
(g/mi)
Production
(Mg)
Aston Martin
-
-
-
-
-
BMW
262
272
-10
122,312
281,656
FCA
309
288
21
1,703,671
-7,984,791
Ferrari
-
-
-
-
-
Ford
301
300
1
1,248,078
-180,721
GM
311
295
16
1,707,364
-6,085,943
Honda
245
263
-18
737,733
2,979,411
Hyundai
326
258
68
11,221
-173,010
Jaguar Land Rover
275
277
-2
98,357
46,790
Kia
275
258
17
191,249
-748,502
Mazda
256
251
5
128,015
-149,600
McLaren
-
-
-
-
-
Mercedes
310
266
44
113,976
-1,144,494
Mitsubishi
231
235
-4
62,658
52,782
Nissan
307
272
35
482,837
-3,767,038
Subaru
220
243
-23
626,769
3,293,088
Tesla
-313
284
-597
3,212
433,142
Toyota
289
270
19
1,262,967
-5,372,469
VW
263
267
-4
385,644
379,804
Volvo
258
275
-17
82,714
316,651
All Manufacturers
288
279
9
8,968,777
-17,823,244
Table 5.16. Total Credits Earned in Mod-*! V?ws 2009-20 1 ruck
Performance
Standard
Credits
Model
Value
Standard
Exceedance
Generated
Credit
Year
(g/mi)
(g/mi)
(g/mi)
Production
(Mg)
Expiration
2009
-
-
-
-
40,503,306
2014
2010
-
-
-
-
46,034,640
2021
2011
-
-
-
-
29,938,636
2021
2012
346
349
-2
4,789,157
2,548,130
2021
2013
337
339
-3
5,452,494
2,985,166
2021
2014
321
330
-9
6,304,986
12,884,498
2021
2015
310
312
-2
7,138,049
3,175,661
2021
2016
316
297
19
7,267,733
-31,026,595
2021
2017
305
295
10
8,061,235
-18,908,064
2022
2018
292
286
7
8,459,136
-12,564,790
2023
2019
288
279
9
8,968,777
-17,823,244
2024
108
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Program Credits for Early Adoption of Technology
The GHG program included an optional provision that allowed manufacturers to generate
credits in the 2009-2011 model years, prior to the implementation of regulatory standards
in model year 2012. This flexibility allowed manufacturers to generate credits for achieving
tailpipe CO2 emissions targets or introducing emission-reducing technology before model
year 2012. Sixteen manufacturers participated in the early credits program, generating a
large bank of credits for the industry before the standards took effect in model year 2012.
The pathways for earning credits under the early credit program mirrored those built into
the annual GHG requirements, including improved tailpipe CO2 performance and A/C
systems, off-cycle credits for other technologies that reduced CO2 emissions, and credits
for manufacturing electric, plug-in hybrid, and fuel cell vehicles.
Of the 234 Tg of early credits, 85% of those credits were generated from performing better
than the tailpipe CO2 emissions targets established in the regulations. To earn credits
based on tailpipe CO2 performance, manufacturers could demonstrate tailpipe emissions
levels below either California or national standards, dependent on the state the car was
sold in. California developed GHG standards prior to the adoption of the EPA GHG
program, and some states had adopted these standards. In all other states, CO2 levels were
calculated based on the national CAFE standards. Of the remaining early credits, about 10%
were created through improving A/C system leakage, 4% were due to A/C efficiency
improvements, and just over 1 % were due to off-cycle credits for other technologies.
The model year 2009 credits could not be traded between companies and were limited to a
5-year credit life. Thus, all credits earned in model year 2009, or about a third of the early
credits generated, expired at the end of the 2014 model year if not already used. The
remaining 2010-2011 model year credits were banked and may be used until the 2021
model year. Manufacturers can no longer generate early credits. More details of the early
credit program can be found in the "Early Credits Report," which was released by EPA in
2013.22
22 Greenhouse Gas Emission Standards for Light-Duty Automobiles: Status of Early Credit Program for Model
Years 2009-2011, Compliance Division, Office of Transportation and Air Quality, U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, Report No. EPA-420-R-13-005, March 2013.
)
-------
Figure 5.14. Early Credits by Manufacturer
Model Year
¦ 2011
2010
¦ 2009
Credit Transactions
Credit trading among manufacturers has been an important part of the program for many
manufacturers. An active credit market is enabling manufacturers to purchase credits to
demonstrate compliance, with eight manufacturers selling credits, ten manufacturers
purchasing credits, and 70 credit transactions occurring since the inception of the program.
Credits may be traded among manufacturers with a great deal of flexibility, however there
are several limitations, including:
1) Manufacturers must offset any existing deficits before selling credits.
2) Manufacturers may not trade credits they do not have.
3) Manufacturers are the only parties that may engage in credit transactions and hold
credits (although a third party may facilitate transactions).
4) Manufacturers may not sell early credits created in model year 2009.
5) Manufacturers may not trade credits generated under an alternative standard
(including TLAAS and small volume manufacturer standards).
110
-------
Manufacturers can purchase or sell credits generated in any model year, if they are
available, regardless of the date of the purchase. For example, many credits purchased in
2019 were generated in model years 2012 or earlier. The model year the credits were
generated remains important, as those credits can be applied (and will expire) according to
the model year in which they were originally created. Figure 5.15 summarizes the credit
trades that have been reported to EPA as of October 31, 2020.
Figure 5.15. Total Credits Transactions through Model Year 2019
Sold Purchased
Expiring 2024
Expiring 2023
Expiring 2022
Expiring 2021
^ ^ ^ ^ o° V
///// P
V*
sf
<9?
sp
To date, about 118 Tg of credits have been traded between manufacturers since the
beginning of the GHG program. In Figure 5.15, credits that have been sold are shown as
negative credits, since the sale of credits will reduce the selling manufacturer's credit
balance. Conversely, credits that have been purchased are shown as positive credits, since
they will increase the purchasing manufacturer's credit balance. The values shown in Figure
5.15 are the total quantity of credits that have been bought or sold by a manufacturer, and
likely represent multiple transactions between various manufacturers. Figure 5.15 also
shows the expiration date of credits sold and acquired.
111
-------
Expiration ;md Portfiture of Credits
All credits earned within the GHG program have expiration dates. However, the only credits
that have expired so far were credits earned under the early credit program (discussed
below) from model year 2009. All credits earned from model years 2010 to 2016, which
make up the majority of credits currently held by manufacturers, will expire at the end of
model year 2021. Beginning in model year 2017, all credits have a 5-year lifetime; for
example, credits earned in model year 2019 will expire at the end of model year 2024.
A limited number of credits have been forfeited by several manufacturers. Although
forfeiture and expiration both have fundamentally the same effect - a loss or removal of
credits - forfeiture is considered a different and less common mechanism, brought about
by unique circumstances. Hyundai and Kia forfeited a specified quantity of 2013 model
year credits after an investigation into their testing methods that concluded with a
settlement announced on November 3, 2014.
Volkswagen similarly forfeited some credits, deducted from their 2017 model year balance.
In the course of the investigation concerning defeat devices in Volkswagen's diesel vehicles,
the EPA discovered that the company employed software to manage vehicle transmissions
in gasoline vehicles. This software causes the transmission to shift gears during the EPA-
prescribed emissions test in a manner that sometimes optimizes fuel economy and
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions during the test, but not under normal driving conditions.
This resulted in inflated fuel economy values for some vehicles. Volkswagen forfeited
credits to account for the higher CO2 emissions of these vehicles in actual use.
Additional manufacturers forfeited credits because of their participation in the Temporary
Lead Time Alternative Allowance Standards (TLAAS). Opting into these less stringent
standards, which are no longer available, came with some restrictions, including the
requirement that any credits accumulated by using the TLAAS standards may not be used
by or transferred to a fleet meeting the primary standard. This impacted Porsche, which
was bought by VW in 2012. Porsche held some credits earned against the TLAAS standards
at the time they were merged with VW, and VW was not participating in the TLAAS
program. Thus, those credits could not carry over to the merged company and were lost.
Similarly, Mercedes and Volvo reached the end of the TLAAS program, which applied
through the 2015 model year, with credits in their TLAAS bank that could not be
transferred to their post-2015 bank and thus were forfeited.
112
-------
D. End of Year GHG Program Credit Balances
The final GHG program credit balance at the end of each model year, and compliance
status, for each manufacturer relies on all the components outlined to this point in the
report. Manufacturer car and truck standards and performance within each model year,
early credits, credit trades, credit forfeitures, and credit expirations are all required to
determine final model year credit balances for each manufacturer. If a manufacturer ends
the model year with a positive credit balance, they are in compliance with the GHG
program and the accrued credits will be carried forward to the next model year. If a
manufacturer ends the model year with a deficit, that manufacturer must offset the deficit
within three years to avoid non-compliance. For example, a manufacturer with a deficit
remaining from model year 2016 after the 2019 model year would be considered out of
compliance with the 2016 standards. Manufacturers may not carry forward any credits
unless all deficits have been offset.
Usii edits to Offset Deficits
If a manufacturer generates a deficit from either their car or truck fleets, that deficit must
be offset from existing credits, if they are available. When applying credits, the oldest
available credits are applied to the current deficit by default. Credits earned in past model
years may be applied to car or truck deficits, regardless of how they were generated. Table
5.17 shows a simple example. In this case, a manufacturer generated 300,000 Mg of credits
from its car fleets in model years 2017, 2018, and 2019. The manufacturer's truck fleets did
not generate any credits or deficits in model years 2017 or 2018 but generated a deficit of
500,000 Mg in 2019. Because the oldest credits are applied first, credits generated in model
year 2017 are the first credits applied towards the 2019 truck deficit, then 2018 and 2019
credits would be applied until the deficit is offset. After offsetting the example truck deficit
in Table 5.17, this manufacturer would be left with 100,000 Mg of credits from model year
2018, and 300,000 Mg of credits from model year 2019 to bank for future use.
Table 5.17. Example of a Deficit Offset with Credits from Previous Model Years
Generated Truck Credits
Generated Car Credits
Model Model Model
Year 2017 Year 2018 Year 2019
0 0 -500,000
300,000 300,000 300,000
Applied to 2019 Deficits
-300,000 -200,000
Remaining Credits
0 100,000 300,000
113
-------
The complete credit and deficit accounting for each manufacturer also includes the impact
of credits earned as part of the early credit program, credit trades, credit forfeitures, and
credit expirations over the full span of the GHG program. The detailed deficit offset
calculations for each manufacturer are not published in this report, since some of the
credit trade information is considered confidential business information and is not
published in detail by EPA. However, most of the underlying data for all manufacturers and
model years is available on the Automotive Trends website at
https://www.epa.gov/automotive-trends.
Compliance Status After the 2019 Model Year
EPA determines the compliance status of each manufacturer based on their credit balance
at the end of the model year, after offsetting all deficits. Because credits may not be carried
forward unless deficits from all prior model years have been resolved, a positive credit
balance means compliance with the current and all previous model years of the program. If
a manufacturer ends the model year with a any deficits, that manufacturer must offset the
deficit within three years to avoid non-compliance. For model year 2019, deficits from
model year 2016 or prior would be considered non-compliant
Figure 5.16 shows the credit balance of all manufacturers after model year 2019 including
the breakdown of expiration dates, and the distribution of deficits, by age of the deficit. All
manufacturers, except two, ended the 2019 model year with a positive credit balance and
are thus in compliance with model year 2019 and all previous years of the GHG program.
Lotus and McLaren, the two manufacturers carrying a deficit into the 2020 model year,
both have deficits at the end of model year 2019, but those deficits are within the allowable
time span, and will not result in non-compliance or enforcement actions from EPA.
However, both manufacturers will have to offset the existing deficits in future model years
either by producing efficient vehicles that exceed future standards, or by purchasing
credits from other manufacturers.
The breakdown of each manufacturer's final model year 2019 credit balance, based on the
source of the credits or deficits, is shown in Table 5.18. Each manufacturer has pursued a
unique combination of early credits generated in model years 2009-2011, credits or deficits
created in model years 2012-2019, and credit expirations, forfeitures, and trades to
achieve their current credit balance. The credits earned in Table 5.18 are "net" credits, and
do not account for deficits that have been offset with credits from other model years. The
actual distribution of credits, by expiration date, and deficits, by the age of the deficit, are
shown in Table 5.19.
-------
Figure 5.16. Manufacturer Credit Balance After Model Year 2019
Deficits
Deficits from 2019
Deficits from 2018
Deficits from 2017
FCA
Honda
Toyota
Subaru
GM
Nissan
Hyundai
Ford
Mazda
BMW
VW
Kia
— Mitsubishi —
Volvo
— Mercedes —
Ferrari
Karma Automotive
Tesla
- Jaguar Land Rover
Aston Martin —
BYD Motors —
- Lotus
McLaren
I
I
-0.008 -0.006 -0.004 -0.002 -0.000
GHG Deficits (Tg of CO )
-r-
0
—i—
10
Credits
Expiring 2024
Expiring 2023
Expiring 2022
Expiring 2021
—i—
20
30
40
GHG Credits (Tg of C02)
-------
Table 5.18. FinaS Credit Balance by Manufacturer for Model Year 20 r > (Mg)
Early Credits Net Credits Net Credits Credits Final 2019
Earned
Earned
Earned
Credits
Credits
Purchased
Credit
Manufacturer
2009-2011
2012-2018
2019
Expired
Forfeited
or Sold
Balance
Aston Martin
3,332
-37,504
15,170
-
-
35,844
16,842
BMW
1,251,522
-210,997
-392,573
-134,791
-
5,500,000
6,013,161
BYD Motors
-
5,568
-
-
-
-
5,568
Coda
-
7,251
-
-
-
-7,251
-
FCA
10,827,083
-32,540,672
-13,345,869
-
-
82,128,881
47,069,423
Ferrari
-
-151,153
-1,853
-
-
265,000
111,994
Ford
16,116,453
2,255,243
-3,221,756
-5,882,011
-
-
9,267,929
GM
25,788,547
-990,066
-9,013,157
-6,998,699
-
10,677,251
19,463,876
Honda
35,842,334
54,543,241
5,307,829
-14,133,353
-
-40,015,245
41,544,806
Hyundai
14,007,495
5,871,049
-2,933,640
-4,482,649
-169,775
-
12,292,480
Jaguar Land Rover
-
-2,874,564
306
-
-
2,922,736
48,478
Karma Automotive
-
58,852
-
-
-
-2,841
56,011
Kia
10,444,192
-4,545,523
-923,819
-2,362,882
-123,956
-
2,488,012
Lotus
-
-3,147
-
-
-
2,841
-306
Mazda
5,482,642
5,905,364
-1,053,413
-1,390,883
-
-
8,943,710
McLaren
-
-11,370
-5,599
-
-
9,079
-7,890
Mercedes
378,272
-8,968,525
-3,304,783
-
-28,416
12,227,713
304,261
Mitsubishi
1,449,336
1,430,836
-57,646
-583,146
-
-200,000
2,039,380
Nissan
18,131,200
17,312,306
-4,256,602
-8,190,124
-
-3,545,570
19,451,210
Porsche
-
426,439
-
-
-426,439
-
-
Subaru
5,755,171
13,280,987
2,157,106
-491,789
-
-
20,701,475
Suzuki
876,650
-183,097
-
-265,311
-
-428,242
-
Tesla
49,772
28,739,673
11,070,481
-
-
-39,807,765
52,161
Toyota
80,435,498
22,093,847
-3,799,467
-29,526,679
-
-33,762,431
35,440,768
VW
6,613,985
-6,019,574
-302,728
-1,442,571
-219,419
4,000,000
2,629,693
Volvo
730,187
398,009
240,374
-
-85,163
-
1,283,407
All Manufacturers
234,183,671
95,792,473
-23,821,639
-75,884,888
-1,053,168
-
229,216,449
116
-------
Table 5.19. Distribution of Credits by Expiration Date (Mg)
Manufacturer
Final 2019
Credit
Balance
Credits
Expiring in
2021
Credits
Expiring in
2022
Credits
Expiring in
2023
Credits
Expiring in
2024
Model
Year
2019
Deficits
Model
Year
2018
Deficits
Model
Year
2017
Deficits
Non-
Compliant
Deficits
Aston Martin
16,842
-
-
1,672
15,170
-
-
-
-
BMW
6,013,161
1,939,942
3,652,752
138,811
281,656
-
-
-
-
BYD Motors
5,568
4,871
529
168
-
-
-
-
-
Coda
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
FCA
47,069,423
19,348,175
4,731,544
11,915,822
11,073,882
-
-
-
-
Ferrari
111,994
99,622
8,180
4,192
-
-
-
-
-
Ford
9,267,929
9,267,929
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
GM
19,463,876
11,801,350
2,127,946
5,534,580
-
-
-
-
-
Honda
41,544,806
22,044,774
4,917,091
9,275,112
5,307,829
-
-
-
-
Hyundai
12,292,480
12,292,480
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Jaguar Land Rover
48,478
1,688
-
-
46,790
-
-
-
-
Karma Automotive
56,011
56,011
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Kia
2,488,012
2,488,012
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Lotus
-306
-
-
-
-
-
-114
-192
-
Mazda
8,943,710
8,607,717
171,051
164,942
-
-
-
-
-
McLaren
-7,890
-
-
-
-
-5,599
-2,291
-
-
Mercedes
304,261
304,261
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Mitsubishi
2,039,380
1,611,677
171,946
202,975
52,782
-
-
-
-
Nissan
19,451,210
18,799,525
651,685
-
-
-
-
-
-
Porsche
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Subaru
20,701,475
11,593,033
3,215,610
2,599,744
3,293,088
-
-
-
-
Suzuki
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Tesla
52,161
-
-
52,161
-
-
-
-
-
Toyota
35,440,768
29,850,127
1,911,327
2,106,312
1,573,002
-
-
-
-
VW
2,629,693
1,028,379
-
1,221,510
379,804
-
-
-
-
Volvo
1,283,407
-
188,150
778,606
316,651
-
-
-
-
All Manufacturers
229,216,449
151,139,573
21,747,811
33,996,607
22,340,654
-5,599
-2,405
-192
0
117
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Figure 5.17 shows the overall industry performance, standards, and credit bank for all
years of the GHG program. The industry created a large bank of credits using the early
credits provision in model year 2009 through 2012. For the next four years, manufacturers
continued to generate credits, as the industry GHG performance was below the industry-
wide average standard. In the last four years, the industry GHG performance has been
above the standard, resulting in net withdrawals from the bank of credits to maintain
compliance. In model year 2019, the industry maintained overall GHG performance at 253
g/mi, while the standard fell from 252 g/mi to 246 g/mi. The gap between the standard and
GHG performance grew from 1 g/mi in model year 2018 to 7 g/mi in model year 2019. To
maintain compliance, the industry drew down their industry-wide total credit bank by
about 24 teragrams (Tg), which was less than 10% of the total available credit balance. The
overall industry emerged from model year 2019 with a bank of more than 229 Tg of GHG
credits available for future use, as seen in Figure 5.17.
In addition to the balance of the industry-wide credit bank, the expiration date and
distribution of credits are also important factors. Credits earned in model year 2017 or
beyond have a five-year life, while all prior credits (two-thirds of the current bank) will
expire at the end of model year 2021. An active credit market has resulted in
approximately 70 credit trades since 2012, with eight manufacturers selling credits and ten
manufacturers purchasing credits However, the availability of current or future credits is
inherently uncertain.
After accounting for the use of credits, and the ability to carry forward a deficit in the case
of Lotus and McLaren, the industry overall does not face any non-compliance issues as of
the end of the 2019 model year.
118
-------
Figure 5.17.
Industry Performance and Standards, Credit Generation and Use
0
1
o
-------
Appendices: Methods and Additional Data
A. Sources of Input Data
Nearly all of the data for this report are based on automakers' direct submissions to EPA.
EPA has required manufacturers to provide vehicle fuel economy to consumers since 1977
and has collected data on every new light-duty vehicle model sold in the United States
since 1975. The data are obtained either from testing performed by EPA at the National
Vehicle and Fuel Emissions Laboratory in Ann Arbor, Michigan, or directly from
manufacturers using official EPA test procedures.
National fuel economy standards have been in place in the United States for cars and light
trucks since 1978. The Department of Transportation, through the National Highway Traffic
Safety Administration (NHTSA), has the responsibility for setting and enforcing fuel
economy standards through the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) program. Since
the inception of CAFE, EPA has been responsible for establishing test procedures and
calculation methods, and for collecting data used to determine vehicle fuel economy levels.
EPA calculates the CAFE value for each manufacturer and provides it to NHTSA. NHTSA
publishes the final CAFE values in its annual "Summary of Fuel Economy Performance"
reports at www.nhtsa.gov/Laws-&-Regulations/CAFE—Fuel-Economy. Since model year
2012, NHTSA and EPA have maintained coordinated fuel economy and greenhouse gas
standards that apply to model year 2012 through model year 2026 vehicles. EPA's light-
duty GHG program is described in detail in Section 5 of this report.
The data that EPA collects for this report comprise the most comprehensive database of its
kind. For recent model years, the vast majority of data in this report comes from the
Engines and Vehicles Compliance Information System (EV-CIS) database maintained by EPA.
This database contains a broad amount of data associated with CO2 emissions and fuel
economy, vehicle and engine technology, and other vehicle performance metrics. This
report extracts only a portion of the data from the EV-CIS database.
In some cases, the data submitted by automakers are supplemented by data that were
obtained through independent research by EPA. For example, EPA relied on published data
from external sources for certain parameters of pre-model year 2011 vehicles: (1) engines
with variable valve timing (VVT), (2) engines with cylinder deactivation, and (3) vehicle
footprint, as automakers did not submit this data until model year 2011. EPA projects
footprint data for the preliminary model year 2020 fleet based on footprint values for
existing models from previous years and footprint values for new vehicle designs available
I
-------
through public sources. In addition, vehicle 0-to-60 acceleration values are not provided by
automakers, but are either calculated from other Trends data, as discussed in Section 3, or
taken from external sources.
The website for this report has been expanded with an emphasis on allowing users to
access and evaluate more of the data behind this report. EPA plans to continue to add
content and tools on the web to allow transparent access to public data. All public data
available on the web can be accessed at the following links:
• Explore data with interactive figures and download data from Supplemental Data
Tables supplied in previous reports here: https://www.epa.gov/automotive-
trends/explore-automotive-trends-data.
• Download report tables here: https://www.epa.gov/automotive-trends/download-
automotive-trends-report.
The full database used for the analysis in this report is not publicly available. The detailed
production data necessary for demonstrating compliance is considered confidential
business information by the manufacturers and cannot be shared by EPA. However, EPA
will continue to provide as much information as possible to the public.
Preliminary vs Final Data
For each model year, automakers submit two phases of data: preliminary data provided
to EPA for vehicle certification and labeling prior to the model year sales, and final data
submitted after the completion of the model year for compliance with EPA's light-duty GHG
regulations and NHTSA's CAFE program.
Preliminary data are collected prior to the beginning of each model year and are not used
for manufacturer GHG compliance. Automakers submit "General Label" information
required to support the generation of the joint EPA/NHTSA Fuel Economy and Environment
Labels that appear on all new personal vehicles. As part of these submissions, automakers
report pre-model year vehicle production projections for individual models and
configurations to EPA.
Final data are submitted a few months after the end of each model year and include
detailed final production volumes. EPA and NHTSA use this final data to determine
compliance with GHG emissions and CAFE standards. These end-of-the-year submissions
include detailed final production volumes. All data in this report for model years 1975
through 2019 are considered final. However, manufacturers can submit requests for
A-2
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compliance credits for previous model years, so it is possible that additional credits under
the GHG program could be awarded to manufacturers.
Since the preliminary fuel economy values provided by automakers are based on projected
vehicle production volumes, they usually vary slightly from the final fuel economy values
that reflect the actual sales at the end of the model year. With each publication of this
report, the preliminary values from the previous year are updated to reflect the final
values. This allows a comparison to gauge the accuracy of preliminary projections.
Table A.1 compares the preliminary and final fleetwide real-world fuel economy values for
recent years (note that the differences for CO2 emissions data would be similar, on a
percentage basis). Since model year 2011, the final real-world fuel economy values have
generally been close to the preliminary fuel economy values. In eight out ofthe last nine
years, manufacturer projections have led to preliminary estimates that were higher than
final data.
It is important to note that there is no perfect apples-to-apples comparison for model years
2011 -2014 due to several small differences in data, such as inclusion of alternative fuel
vehicle (AFV) data. The preliminary values in Table A.1 through model year 2014 did not
integrate AFV data, while the final values in Table A.1 are the values reported elsewhere in
this report and do include AFV data. The differences due to this would be small, on the
order of 0.1 mpgorless.
Table A.1. Comparison of Preliminary and Final Real-World Fuel Economy
Values fmpg)
Model Year
Preliminary
Value
Final Value
Final Minus
Preliminary
2011
22.8
22.3
-0.5
2012
23.8
23.6
-0.2
2013
24.0
24.2
+0.2
2014
24.2
24.1
-0.1
2015
24.7
24.6
-0.2
2016
25.6
24.7
-0.9
2017
25.2
24.9
-0.3
2018
25.4
25.1
-0.3
2019
25.5
24.9
-0.6
2020 (prelim)
25.7
-
-
A3
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B. Harmonic Averaging of Fuel Economy Values
Averaging multiple fuel economy values must be done harmonically in order to obtain a
correct mathematical result. Since fuel economy is expressed in miles per gallon (mpg), one
critical assumption with any harmonic averaging of multiple fuel economy values is
whether the distance term (miles, in the numerator of mpg) is fixed or variable. This report
makes the assumption that the distance term in all mpg values is fixed, i.e., that for
purposes of calculating a harmonically averaged fuel economy value, it is assumed that the
distance term (representing miles traveled) is equivalent across various vehicle fuel
economies. This assumption is the standard practice with harmonic averaging of multiple
fuel economy values (including, for example, in calculations for CAFE standards
compliance), and simplifies the calculations involved.
Mathematically, when assuming a fixed distance term as discussed above, harmonic
averaging of multiple fuel economy values can be defined as the inverse of the average of
the reciprocals of the individual fuel economy values. It is best illustrated by a simple
example.
Consider a round trip of 600 miles. For the first 300-mile leg, the driver is alone with no
other passengers or cargo, and, aided by a tailwind, uses 10 gallons of gasoline, for a fuel
economy of 30 mpg. On the return 300-mile trip, with several passengers, some luggage,
and a headwind, the driver uses 15 gallons of gasoline, for a fuel economy of 20 mpg. Many
people will assume that the average fuel economy for the entire 600-mile trip is 25 mpg,
the arithmetic (or simple) average of 30 mpg and 20 mpg. But, since the driver consumed
10 + 15 = 25 gallons of fuel during the trip, the actual fuel economy is 600 miles divided by
25 gallons, or 24 mpg.
Why is the actual 24 mpg less than the simple average of 25 mpg? Because the driver used
more gallons while (s)he was getting 20 mpg than when (s)he was getting 30 mpg.
This same principle is often demonstrated in elementary school mathematics when an
airplane makes a round trip, with a speed of 400 mph one way and 500 mph the other way.
The average speed of 444 mph is less than 450 mph because the airplane spent more time
going 400 mph than it did going 500 mph.
As in both of the examples above, a harmonic average will typically yield a result that is
slightly lower than the arithmetic average.
The following equation illustrates the use of harmonic averaging to obtain the correct
mathematical result for the fuel economy example above:
B-1
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2
Average mpg =
Though the above example was for a single vehicle with two different fuel economies over
two legs of a single round trip, the same mathematical principle holds for averaging the fuel
economies of any number of vehicles. For example, the average fuel economy for a set of 10
vehicles, with three 30 mpg vehicles, four 25 mpg vehicles, and three 20 mpg vehicles would
be (note that, in order to maintain the concept of averaging, the total number of vehicles in
the numerator of the equation must equal the sum of the individual numerators in the
denominator of the equation):
Arithmetic averaging, not harmonic averaging, provides the correct mathematical result for
averaging fuel consumption values (in gallons per mile, the inverse of fuel economy) and CO2
emissions (in grams per mile). In the first, round trip, example above, the first leg had a fuel
consumption rate of 10 gallons over 300 miles, or 0.033 gallons per mile. The second leg had
a fuel consumption of 15 gallons over 300 miles, or 0.05 gallons per mile. Arithmetically
averaging the two fuel consumption values, i.e., adding them up and dividing by two, yields
0.04167 gallons per mile, and the inverse of this is the correct fuel economy average of 24
mpg. Arithmetic averaging also works for CO2 emissions values, i.e., the average of 200 g/mi
and 400 g/mi is 300 g/mi CO2 emissions.
In summary, fuel economy values must be harmonically averaged to maintain mathematical
integrity, while fuel consumption values (in gallons per mile) and CO2 emissions values (in
grams per mile) can be arithmetically averaged.
10
Average mpg = — j — = 24.4 mpg
+ 25 +
-------
C. Fuel Economy and CO2 Metrics
The CO2 emissions and fuel economy data in this report fall into one of two categories:
compliance data and estimated real-world data. These categories are based on the
purpose of the data, and the subsequent required emissions test procedures. The
following sections discuss the differences between compliance and real-world data and
how they relate to raw vehicle emissions test results.
2-Cycle Test Data
In 1975 when the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) regulation was put into place,
EPA tested vehicles using two dynamometer-based test cycles, one based on city driving
and one based on highway driving. CAFE was—and continues to be—required by law to use
these "2-cycle tests". For consistency, EPA also adopted this approach for the GHG
regulations.
Originally, the fuel economy values generated from the "2-cycle" test procedure were used
both to determine compliance with CAFE requirements and to inform consumers of their
expected fuel economy via the fuel economy label. Today, the raw 2-cycle test data are
used primarily in a regulatory context as the basis for determining the final compliance
values for CAFE and GHG regulations.
The 2-cycle testing methodology has remained largely unchanged23 since the early 1970s.
Because of this, the 2-cycle fuel economy and CO2 values can serve as a useful comparison
of long-term trends. Previous versions of this report included 2-cycle fuel economy and CO2
data, referred to as "unadjusted" or "laboratory" values. These 2-cycle fuel economy values
are still available on the report website and in Appendix D for reference. It is important to
note that these 2-cycle fuel economy values do not exactly correlate to the 2-cycle tailpipe
CO2 emissions values provided in Section 5 for the GHG regulations. There are three
methodological reasons for this:
23 There were some relatively minor test procedure changes made in the late 1970s that, in the aggregate,
made the city and highway tests slightly more demanding, i.e., the unadjusted fuel economy values for a given
car after these test procedure changes were made are slightly lower relative to prior to the changes. EPA has
long provided CAFE "test procedure adjustments" (TPAs) for passenger cars in recognition of the fact that the
original CAFE standards were based on the EPA test procedures in place in 1975 (there are no TPAs for light
trucks). The resulting impacts on the long-term unadjusted fuel economy trends are very small. The TPAs for
cars vary but are typically in the range of 0.2-0.5 mpg for cars, or 0.1 -0.3 mpg when the car TPAs are averaged
over the combined car/truck fleet.
-------
1. The GHG regulations require a car and truck weighting based on a slightly higher
lifetime vehicle miles traveled (VMT) for trucks. The 2-cycle fuel economy values do
not account for this difference.
2. The GHG regulations allow manufacturers to use an optional compliance approach
which adds nitrous oxide and methane emissions to their 2-cycle CO2 emissions.
3. The GHG regulations and CAFE regulations result in very slightly different annual
production values. Prior to model year 2017, the 2-cycle fuel economy values rely on
CAFE production values (see Appendix D).
ipliance Data
Compliance data in this report are used to determine how the manufacturers are
performing under EPA's GHG program. These data are reported in the Executive Summary
and Section 5. The 2-cycle CO2 test values form the basis for the compliance data, but there
are some important differences due to provisions in the standards. Manufacturers' model
year performance is calculated based on the measured 2-cycle CO2 tailpipe emissions as
well as optional performance credits and adjustments that manufacturers may qualify for
and use.
Compliance data also includes the overall credit balances held by each manufacturer, and
may incorporate credit averaging, banking, and trading by manufacturers. The compliance
process is explained in detail in Section 5. Compliance CO2 data is not comparable to
estimated real-world CO2 data, as described below.
Estimated ^ orlJ Pu*d Econoim juui Data
Estimated real-world (previously called "adjusted") data is EPA's best estimate of real-world
fuel economy and CO2 emissions, as reported in Sections 1 -4 of this report. The real-world
values are the best data for researchers to evaluate new vehicle CO2 and fuel economy
performance. Unlike compliance data, the method for calculating real-world data has
evolved over time, along with technology and driving habits. These changes in
methodology are detailed in Appendix D.
Calculating estimated real-world fuel economy
Estimated real-world fuel economy data are currently measured based on the "5-cycle" test
procedure that utilizes high-speed, cold start, and air conditioning tests in addition to the 2-
cycle tests to provide data more representative of real-world driving. These additional
laboratory tests capture a wider range of operating conditions (including hot/cold weather
C-2
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and higher acceleration) that an average driver will encounter. City and highway results are
weighted 43% / 57%, consistent with fleetwide driver activity data.
Calculating estimated real-world CO2 emissions
The estimated real-world CO2 emissions shown in Sections 1-4 are not based directly on
the 2-cycle tested values, but rather they are based on calculated values that convert
estimated real-world fuel economy values to CO2 using emission factors. This approach is
taken because: 1) test data are not available for most historic years of data, and 2) some
manufacturers choose to use an optional compliance approach which adds nitrous oxide
(N2O) and methane (CH4) emissions to their CO2 emissions (also referred to as Carbon
Related Exhaust Emissions, or CREE), leading to slightly different test results.
The estimated real-world CO2 emissions from gasoline vehicles are calculated by dividing
8,887 g/gal by the fuel economy of the vehicle. The 8,887 g/gal emission factor is a typical
value for the grams of CO2 per gallon of gasoline test fuel and assumes all the carbon is
converted to CO2. For example, 8,887 g/gal divided by a gasoline vehicle fuel economy of 30
mpg would yield an equivalent CO2 emissions value of 296 grams per mile.
The estimated real-world CO2 emissions for diesel vehicles are calculated by dividing
10,180 g/gal by the diesel vehicle fuel economy value. The 10,180 g/gal diesel emission
factor is higher than for a gasoline vehicle because diesel fuel has a 14.5% higher carbon
content per gallon than gasoline. Accordingly, a 30 mpg diesel vehicle would have a CO2
equivalent value of 339 grams per mile. Emissions for vehicles other than gasoline and
diesel are also calculated using appropriate emissions factors.
Example Comparison of Fuel Economy Metrics
The multiple ways of measuring fuel economy and GHG emissions can understandably
lead to confusion. As an illustration to help the reader understand the various fuel
economy values that can be associated with an individual vehicle, Table 1.2 shows three
different fuel economy metrics for the model year 2020 Toyota Prius Eco. The 2-cycle city
and highway fuel economy values are direct fuel economy measurements from the 2-cycle
tests and are harmonically averaged with a 55% city / 45% highway weighting to generate a
combined value. The 2-cycle laboratory tested city fuel economy of the Prius Eco is 84 mpg,
the highway fuel economy is 78 mpg, and the combined 2-cycle value is 81 mpg.
Using the 5-cycle methodology, the Toyota Prius Eco has a vehicle fuel economy label value
of 58 mpg city and 53 mpg highway. On the vehicle label, these values are harmonically
averaged using a 55% city / 45% highway weighting to determine a combined value of 56
C-3
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mpg. The estimated real-world fuel economy for the Prius Eco, which is the set of values
used in calculations for this report, has the same city and highway fuel economy as the
label, but the 43% city and 57% highway weighting leads to a combined value of 55 mpg,
which is one mpg less than the values found on the label.
Table C.1. Fuel Economy Metrics fcr the Model Year 2020 Toyota Prius Eco
Fuel Economy Value
Fuel (MPG)
Economy
Metric
Purpose
City/Highway
Weighting
Test
Basis
Combined
City/Hwy
City
Hwy
2-cycle Test
(unadjusted)
Basis for manufacturer
compliance with
standards
55% / 45%
2-cycle
81
84
78
Label
Consumer information
to compare individual
vehicles
55% / 45%
5-cycle
56
58
53
Estimated
Real-World
Best estimate of real-
world performance
43% / 57%
5-cycle
55
58
53
Greenhouse Gasc . thunj
In addition to tailpipe CO2 emissions, vehicles may create greenhouse gas emissions in
several other ways. The combustion process can result in emissions of N2O, and CH4, and
leaks in vehicle air conditioning systems can release refrigerants, which are also
greenhouse gases, into the environment. N2O, CH4, and air conditioning greenhouse gases
are discussed as part of the GHG regulatory program in Section 5. Estimated real-world CO2
emissions in Sections 1 -4 only account for tailpipe CO2 emissions.
The life cycle of the vehicle (including manufacturing and vehicle disposal) and the life cycle
of the fuels (including production and distribution) can also create significant greenhouse
gases. Life cycle implications of vehicles and fuels can vary widely based on the vehicle
technology and fuel and are outside the scope of this report. However, there is academic
research, both published and ongoing, in this area for interested readers.
C-4
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D. Historical Changes in the Database and
Methodology
Over the course of this report's publication, there have been some instances where
relevant methodologies and definitions have been updated. Since the goal of this report is
to provide the most accurate data and science available, updates are generally propagated
back to through the historical database. The current version of this report supersedes all
previous reports.
Changes in Estimated Real-world Fuel Economy and CO2
The estimated real-world fuel economy values in this report are closely related to the label
fuel economy values. Over the course of this report, there have been three updates to the
fuel economy label methodology (for model years 1985, 2008, and 2017), and these
updates were propagated through the Trends database. However, there are some
important differences in how the label methodology updates have been applied in this
report. This section discusses how these methodologies have been applied, partially or in
full, to the appropriate model years based on the authors' technical judgement. The
changes are intended to provide accurate real-world values for vehicles at the time they
were produced to better reflect available technologies, changes in driving patterns, and
composition of the fleet. These changes are also applicable to real-world CO2 values, which
are converted from fuel economy values using emissions factors.
Model yeai 385; Universal Multipliers
The first change to the label methodology occurred when EPA recognized that changing
technology and driving habits led to real-world fuel economy results that over time were
diverging from the fuel economy values measured using the 2-cycle tests. To address this
issue, EPA introduced an alternative calculation methodology in 1985 that applied a
multiplication factor to the 2-cycle test data of 0.9 for city and 0.78 for highway. The
estimated real-world fuel economy values from model year 1975-1985 in this report were
calculated using the same multiplication factors that were required for the model year
1985 label update. The authors believe that these correction factors were appropriate for
new vehicles from model year 1975 through 1985. The combined fuel economy and CO2
values are based on a 55% city / 45% highway weighting factor, consistent with the CAFE
and label fuel economy calculations.
1
-------
Model year 1986-2010; The 2006 5-cycle methodology and 43% City / 57%
Highway Weighting
In 2006, EPA established a major change to the fuel economy label calculations by
introducing the 5-cycle methodology24 In addition to the city and highway tests required for
2-cycle fuel economy the 5-cycle methodology introduces tests for high speeds (US06), air-
conditioning (SC03), and a cold temperature test. It also indirectly accounts for a number of
other factors that are not reflected in EPA laboratory test data (e.g., changing fuel
composition, wind, road conditions) through the use of a 9.5% universal downward
adjustment factor. The change from the universal adjustment factors to the 2006 5-cycle
method lowered estimated real-world fuel economy values, particularly for high fuel
economy vehicles. In the 2006 rulemaking, EPA projected an overall average fleetwide
adjustment of 11% lower for city fuel economy and 8% lower for highway fuel economy.
For model year 1986-2004, the authors implemented the 2006 5-cycle methodology by
assuming the changes in technology and driver behavior that led to lower real-world fuel
economy occurred in a gradual, linear manner over 20 years. We did not attempt to
perform a year-by-year analysis to determine the extent to which the many relevant factors
(including higher highway speed limits, more aggressive driving, increasing vehicle
horsepower-to-weight ratios, suburbanization, congestion, greater use of air conditioning,
gasoline composition, etc.) that have affected real-world fuel economy since 1985 have
changed over time.
Under the 5-cycle methodology, manufacturers could either: 1) perform all five tests on
each vehicle (the "full 5-cycle" method), 2) use an alternative analytical "derived 5-cycle"
method based on 2-cycle testing if certain conditions were met, or 3) voluntarily use lower
fuel economy label estimates than those resulting from the full 5-cycle or derived 5-cycle. If
manufacturers are required to perform all five tests, the results are weighted according to
composite 5-cycle equations.25 To use the derived 5-cycle method, manufacturers are
required to evaluate whether fuel economy estimates using the full 5-cycle tests are
comparable to results using the derived 5-cycle method. In recent years, the derived 5-cycle
approach has been used to generate approximately 85% of all vehicle label fuel economy
values.
For vehicles that were eligible to use the 2006 derived 5-cycle methodology, the following
equations were used to convert 2-cycle city and highway fuel economy values to label
24 See 71 Federal Register 77872, December 27, 2006.
25 See 71 Federal Register 77883-77886, December 27, 2006.
D-2
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economy values. These equations were based on the relationship between 2-cycle and 5-
cycle fuel economy data for the industry as a whole.
1
Label CITY =
(°-
003259 +
1.1805 >
2 CYCLE CITYj
1
Label HWY =
(o.001376 +
1.3466
2 CYCLE HWY;
Over the same timeframe, EPA phased in a change in the city and highway weightings used
to determine a single combined fuel economy or CO2 value. EPA's analysis of real-world
driving activity underlying the 5-cycle fuel economy methodology assumed a "speed
cutpoint" of 45 miles per hour to differentiate between (and "bin" the amount of) city and
highway driving.26 Based on this speed cutpoint, the correct weighting for correlating the
new city and highway fuel economy values with real-world driving activity data from on-
road vehicle studies, on a miles driven basis, is 43% city and 57% highway; this updated
weighting is necessary to maintain the integrity of fleetwide fuel economy performance
based on Trends data. The 55% city / 45% highway weighting is still used for both Fuel
Economy and Environment Labels and the CAFE and GHG emissions compliance programs.
The authors used the same gradual, linear approach to phase in the change in city and
highway weightings along with the phase-in of the 2006 5-cycle methodology.
From model year 2005 to model year 2010, the 2006 5-cycle methodology and the 43% city
/ 57% highway weightings were used to determine the real-world fuel economy values for
this report. This required using the derived 5-cycle equations and the 43% city / 57%
highway weightings to recalculate real-world fuel economy values for model year 2005 to
2007, because the 2006 5-cycle methodology was not required until 2008. Model year 2008
to model year 2010 real-world fuel economy values were the same as the label fuel
economy values, except for the city and highway weightings.
Model year 2011-preseet; Implementing 1 wed 5-cycle updates
In 2015, EPA released a minor update to the derived 5-cycle equations that modified the
coefficients used to calculate derived 5-cycle fuel economy from 2-cycle test data.27 This
26 See 71 Federal Register 77904, December 27, 2006.
27 See https://www.epa.gov/fueleconomy/basic-information-fuel-economy-labeling and
http://iaspub.epa.gov/otaqpub/display file.jsp?docid=35113&flag=1
D-3
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update was required under existing regulations and applies to fuel economy label
calculations for all model year 2017 and later vehicles. The following equations are used to
convert 2-cycle test data values for city and highway to label fuel economy values:
1
Label CITY =
(o.004091 +
Label HWY =
1.1601
2CYCLE CITY;
1
/ 1 2945
(0.003191 +¦
2 CYCLE HWYV
The updated 5-cycle calculations introduced for model year 2017 and later labels were
based on test data from model year 2011 to model year 2016 vehicles. Therefore, the
authors chose to retroactively apply the updated 5-cycle methodology to model years 2011
to 2016. This required recalculating the real-world fuel economy of vehicles from model
year 2011 to 2016 using the new derived 5-cycle equations. Vehicles that conducted full 5-
cycle testing or voluntarily lowered fuel economy values were unchanged. The 43% city /
57% highway weightings were maintained. The changes for model years 2011 -2016 due to
the 5-cycle update were relatively small (0.1 to 0.2 mpg overall) and did not noticeably alter
the general data trends, therefore the authors determined that a phase-in period was not
required for this update.
Figure D.1 below summarizes the impact of the changes in real-world data methodology
relative to the 2-cycle test data, which has had a consistent methodology since 1975 (See
Appendix C for more information). Over time, the estimated real-world fuel economy of
new vehicles has continued to slowly diverge from 2-cycle test data, due largely to changing
technology, driving patterns, and vehicle design.
D-4
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Figure D.1. Estimated Real-World versus 2-Cycle Fuel Economy since Model
Year 1975
Phase I
1975-1985
Phase II
1986-2006
Phase III
2007-2010
Phase IV
2011-present
Universal
adjustment factors
55/45% weighting
2006 5-cycle is phase-in
5-cycle Updated 5-cycle
43/57%
weighting
43/57%
weighting
43/57% weighting phase-in
35
2-cycle method
unchanged
since 1975
O
25
f Ratio of^
Real-World
Estimated
to 2-cycle:
y 76.5% J
— Estimated
Real-World
Phases I - IV
>>
E
o
c
o
o
LLI
Z' Ratio of~\
Real-World
Estimated
to 2-cycle:
V 85.2% J
©
3
LL
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Model Year
Other Database Changes
Addition of Medium-Duty Passenger Vehicles
Beginning in 2011 medium-duty passenger vehicles (MDPVs), those SUVs and passenger
vans (but not pickup trucks) with gross vehicle weight ratings between 8,500 and 10,000
pounds, are included in the light-duty truck category. This coincided with new regulations
by NHTSA to treat these vehicles as light-duty, rather than heavy-duty, vehicles beginning in
model year 2011, This represents a minor change to the database, since the number of
MDPVs is much smaller than it once was (e.g., only 6,500 MDPVs were sold in model year
2012). It should be noted that this is one change to the database that has not been
propagated back through the historic database, as we do not have MDPV data prior to
model year 2011. Accordingly, this represents a small inflection point for the database for
the overall car and truck fleet in model year 2011; the inclusion of MDPVs decreased
average real-world fuel economy by 0.01 mpg and increased average real-world CO2
emissions by 0.3 g/mi, compared to the fleet without MDPVs. The impacts on the truck fleet
only were about twice as high, but still very small in absolute terms. Pickup trucks above
8,500 pounds are not included in this report.
D-5
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Addition of Alternative Fuel Vehicles
Data from alternative fuel vehicles are integrated into the overall database, beginning with
MY 2011 data. These vehicles include electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles, fuel cell
vehicles, and compressed natural gas vehicles. CO2 emissions from alternative fuel vehicles
represent tailpipe emissions, and fuel economy for these vehicles is reported as mpge
(miles per gallon of gasoline equivalent), or the miles an alternative fuel vehicle can travel
on an amount of energy equivalent to that in a gallon of gasoline. Sales data prior to MY
2011 are included in some cases based on available industry reports (e.g., Ward's
Automotive data).
Changes in Vehicle Classification Definitions
The car-truck classifications in this report follow the current regulatory definitions used by
EPA and NHTSA for compliance with GHG emissions and CAFE standards (see definitions
for passenger automobiles (cars) and non-passenger automobiles (trucks) in 49 CFR 523).
These current definitions differ from those used in the 2010 and older versions of the Light-
Duty Automotive Technology, Carbon Dioxide Emissions, and Fuel Economy Trends report, and
reflect a decision by NHTSA to reclassify many small, 2-wheel drive sport utility vehicles
(SUVs) from the truck category to the car category, beginning with model year 2011. When
this re-classification was initiated in the 2011 report, the absolute truck share decreased by
approximately 10%.
The current car-truck definitions have been propagated back throughout the entire
historical Trends database to maintain the integrity of long-term trends of car and truck
production share. Since the authors did not have all of the requisite technical information
on which to make retroactive car-truck classifications, we used engineering judgment to
classify past models.
This report previously presented data on more vehicle types, but recent vehicle design has
led to far less distinction between vehicle types and reporting on more disaggregated
vehicle types was no longer useful.
Manufacturer Definitions
When a manufacturer grouping changes under the GHG and CAFE programs, the current
manufacturer definitions are generally applied to all prior model years. This maintains
consistent manufacturer and make definitions over time, which enables better
identification of long-term trends. However, some of the compliance data maintain the
D-6
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previous manufacturer definitions where necessary to preserve the integrity of compliance
data as they were accrued.
Differences in Production Data Between CAFE and GHG Regulations
The data used to discuss real-world trends in Sections 1 through 4 of this report are based
on production volumes reported under CAFE prior to model year 2017, not the GHG
standards. The production volume levels automakers provide in their final CAFE reports
may differ slightly from their final GHG reports (typically less than 0.1 %) because of
different reporting requirements. The EPA regulations require emission compliance in the
50 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, Guam, American Samoa,
and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, whereas the CAFE program
requires data from the 50 states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico only. All
compliance data detailed in Section 5, for all years, are based on production volumes
reported under the GHG standards. Starting with model year 2017 and forward, the real-
world data are also based on production volumes reported under EPA's GHG standards. As
described above, the difference in production volumes is very small and does not impact
the long-term trends or analysis.
D-7
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E. Electric Vehicle and Plug-In Hybrid Metrics
Electric Vehicles (EVs) and Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles (PHEVs) have continued to gain market
share. While overall market penetration of these vehicles is still low, their production share
is projected to reach 4% in model year 2020. This section addresses some of the technical
metrics used both to quantify EV and PHEV operation and to integrate data from these
vehicles with gasoline and diesel vehicle data.
EVs operate using only energy stored in a battery from external charging. PHEVs blend EV
technology with more familiar powertrain technology from petroleum-fueled vehicles.
Current PHEVs feature both an electric drive system designed to be charged from an
electricity source external to the vehicle (like an EV) and a gasoline internal combustion
engine. There are generally three ways that a PHEV can operate:
• Charge-depleting electric-only mode - In electric-only mode the vehicle operates
like an EV, using only energy stored in the battery to propel the vehicle.
• Charge-depleting blended mode - In blended mode the vehicle uses both energy
stored in the battery and energy from the gasoline tank to propel the vehicle.
Depending on the vehicle design and driving conditions, blended operation can
include substantial all-electric driving.
• Charge-sustaining mode - In charge-sustaining mode, the PHEV has exhausted the
external energy from the electric grid that is stored in the battery and relies on the
gasoline internal combustion engine. In charge-sustaining mode, the vehicle will
operate much like a traditional hybrid.
The presence of both electric drive and an internal combustion engine results in a complex
system that can be used in many different combinations, and manufacturers are choosing
to operate PHEV systems in different ways. This complicates direct comparisons among
PHEV models.
This section discusses EV and PHEV metrics for several example model year 2020 vehicles.
For consistency and clarity for the reader, the data for specific vehicles discussed in this
section reflect values from the EPA/DOT Fuel Economy and Environment Labels, which use
a 55% city / 45% highway weighting for combined fuel economy and CO2 values. When data
for these vehicles are integrated into the data for the rest of the report, the real-world
highway and city values are combined using a 43% city / 57% highway weighting.
Additionally, some PHEV calculations are also adjusted, as explained at the end of this
section.
ES\
mm I
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Table E.1 shows the label driving range for several EVs and PHEVs when operating only on
electricity, as well as the total electricity plus gasoline range for PHEVs. The average range
of new EVs is increasing, as shown in Section 4, and many EVs are approaching the range of
an average gasoline vehicle.28 PHEVs generally have a much smaller all electric range,
however the combined electric and gasoline range for PHEVs often exceeds gasoline-only
vehicles. Several PHEVs now exceed 500 miles of total range.
Table E.1. Model Year 2020 Example EV and PHEV Powertrain and Range
Manufacturer
Model
Fuel or
Powertrain
Electric
Range
(miles)
Total
Range
(miles)
Utility
Factor
GM
Bolt
EV
259
259
-
Nissan
Leaf 62 kWh
EV
226
226
-
Tesla
Model 3 LR
EV
330
330
-
FCA
Pacifica
PHEV
32
520
0.61
Ford
Escape
PHEV
37
530
0.66
Honda
Clarity
PHEV
48
340
0.73
Toyota
Prius Prime
PHEV
25
640
0.53
Volvo
XC90
PHEV
18
520
0.43
Determining the electric range of PHEVs is complicated if the vehicle can operate in
blended modes. For PHEVs like the Ford Escape, which cannot operate in blended mode,
the electric range represents the estimated range operating in electric only mode.
However, for PHEVs that operate in a blended mode, the electric range represents the
estimated range of the vehicle operating in either electric only or blended mode, due to the
design of the vehicle. For example, the Volvo XC90 uses electricity stored in its battery and
a small amount of gasoline to achieve an alternative fuel range of 18 miles. Some PHEVs
did not use any gasoline to achieve their electric range value on EPA test cycles; however,
certain driving conditions (e.g., more aggressive accelerations, higher speeds, and air
conditioning or heater operation) would likely cause these vehicles to operate in a blended
mode instead of an all-electric mode.
Table E.1 also introduces the concept of a utility factor. The utility factor is directly related
to the electric range for PHEVs, and is a projection, on average, of the percentage of miles
that will be driven using electricity (in electric-only and blended modes) by an average
28 In addition to growing EV range, the number of public electric vehicle charging stations is growing rapidly. For
more information, see the U.S. Department of Energy's Alternative Fuels Data Center at
https://www.afdc.energv.gov/.
E2
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driver. The model year 2020 Escape, for example, has a utility factor of 0.66, i.e., it is
expected that, on average, the Escape will operate 66% of the time on electricity and 34%
of the time on gasoline. Utility factor calculations are based on an SAE methodology that
EPA has adopted for regulatory compliance (SAE 2010).
Table E.2 shows five energy-related metrics for model year 2020 example EVs and PHEVs
that are included on the EPA/NHTSA Fuel Economy and Environment labels. Comparing the
energy or fuel efficiency performance from alternative fuel vehicles raises complex issues
of how to compare different fuels. Consumers and OEMs are familiar and comfortable with
evaluating gasoline and diesel vehicle fuel economy in terms of miles per gallon, and it is
the primary efficiency metric in this report. To enable this comparison for alternative fuel
vehicles, the overall energy efficiency of vehicles operating on electricity, hydrogen, and
CNG are evaluated in terms of miles per gallon of gasoline equivalent (an energy metric
described in more detail below).
Table E.2. Model Year 2020 Example EV and PHEV Fuel Economy Label Metrics
Charge
Fuel
Charge Depleting
Sustaining
Overall
Manufacturer
Model
or
Power
-train
Electricity
(kW-hrs/
100 miles)
Gasoline Fuel
(gallons/ Economy
100 miles) (mpge)
Fuel
Economy
(mpg)
Fuel
Economy
(mpge)
GM
Bolt
EV
29
-
118
N/A
118
Nissan
Leaf 62 kWh
EV
31
-
108
N/A
108
Tesla
Model 3 LR
EV
26
-
130
N/A
130
FCA
Pacifica
PHEV
41
0.0
82
30
48
Ford
Escape
PHEV
33
0.0
102
41
66
Honda
Clarity
PHEV
31
0.0
110
42
76
Toyota
Prius Prime
PHEV
25
0.0
133
54
78
Volvo
XC90
PHEV
58
0.1
55
27
34
The fourth column in Table E.2 gives electricity consumption rates for EVs and PHEVs
during charge depleting operation in units of kilowatt-hours per 100 miles (kW-hrs/100
miles). As shown on the vehicle label, the electricity consumption rate is based on the
amount of electricity required from an electric outlet to charge the vehicle and includes
wall-to-vehicle charging losses. The values for all of the EVs and PHEVs reflect the electricity
consumption rate required to operate the vehicle in either electric-only or blended mode
operation. PHEVs that are capable of operating in a blended mode may also consume
some gasoline in addition to electricity. Any additional gasoline used is shown in the fifth
column. For example, the Volvo XC90 PHEV consumes 58 kW-hrs and 0.1 gallons of
gasoline per 100 miles during this combination of electric-only and blended modes.
-------
The sixth column converts the electricity consumption data in the fourth column and the
gasoline consumption data in the fifth column into a combined miles per gallon of
gasoline-equivalent (mpge) metric. The mpge metric is a measure of the miles the vehicle
can travel on an amount of energy that is equal to the amount of energy stored in a gallon
of gasoline. For a vehicle operating on electricity, mpge is calculated as 33.705 kW-
hrs/gallon divided by the vehicle electricity consumption in kW-hrs/mile. For example, for
the Leaf, 33.705 kW-hrs/gallon divided by 0.31 kW-hrs/mile (equivalent to 31 kW-hrs/100
miles) is 108 mpge.29 Because the Volvo XC90 consumes both electricity and gasoline over
the alternative fuel range of 18 miles, the charge depleting fuel economy of 55 mpge
includes both the electricity and gasoline consumption, at a rate of 58 kW-hrs/100 miles of
electricity and 0.1 gal/100 miles of gasoline.
The seventh column gives label fuel economy values for vehicles operating on gasoline
only, which is relevant here only for the PHEVs operating in charge sustaining mode. For
PHEVs, the EPA/NHTSA label shows both electricity consumption in kW-hrs/100 miles and
mpge, when the vehicle operates exclusively on electricity or in a blended mode, and
gasoline fuel economy in mpg, when the vehicle operates exclusively on gasoline.
The final column gives the overall mpge values reflecting the overall energy efficiency of
the vehicle for all of the fuels on which the vehicle can operate, and provide a common
metric to compare vehicles that operate on different fuels. In addition to the energy
metrics in the previous columns, the one key additional parameter necessary to calculate a
combined electricity/gasoline mpge value for a PHEV is the utility factor that was
introduced in Table E.1. For EVs the overall fuel economy in the last column is equal to the
charge depleting fuel economy, as EVs can only operate in a charge depleting mode.
Table E.3 gives vehicle tailpipe CO2 emissions values that are included on the EPA/DOT Fuel
Economy and Environment labels (and reflected in the label's Greenhouse Gas Rating).
These label values reflect EPA's best estimate of the CO2 tailpipe emissions that these
vehicles will produce, on average, in real-world city and highway operation. EVs, of course,
have no tailpipe emissions. For the PHEVs, the label CO2 emissions values utilize the same
utility factors discussed above to weight the CO2 emissions on electric and gasoline
operation.
29 The actual calculations were done with unrounded numbers. Using the rounded numbers provided here may
result in a slightly different number due to rounding error.
-------
Table E.3. Model Year 2020 Example EV and PHEV Label Tailpipe CO2 Emissions
Metrics
Manufacturer
Model
Fuel or
Powertrain
Tailpipe C02
(g/mile)
GM
Bolt
EV
0
Nissan
Leaf 62 kWh
EV
0
Tesla
Model 3 LR
EV
0
FCA
Pacifica
PHEV
119
Ford
Escape
PHEV
77
Honda
Clarity
PHEV
57
Toyota
Prius Prime
PHEV
78
Volvo
XC90
PHEV
197
Table E.4 accounts for the "upstream" CO2 emissions associated with the production and
distribution of electricity used in EVs and PHEVs. Gasoline and diesel fuels also have CO2
emissions associated with their production and distribution, but these upstream emissions
are not reflected in the tailpipe CO2 emissions values discussed elsewhere in this report.
Combining vehicle tailpipe and fuel production/distribution sources, gasoline vehicles emit
about 80 percent of total CO2 emissions at the vehicle tailpipe with the remaining 20
percent of total CO2 emissions associated with upstream fuel production and distribution.
Diesel fuel has a similar approximate relationship between tailpipe and upstream CO2
emissions. On the other hand, vehicles powered by grid electricity emit no CO2 (or other
emissions) at the vehicle tailpipe; therefore, all CO2 emissions associated with an EV are
due to fuel production and distribution. Depending on how the electricity is produced,
these fuels can have very high fuel production/distribution CO2 emissions (for example, if
coal is used with no CO2 emissions control) or very low CO2 emissions (for example, if
renewable processes with minimal fossil energy inputs are used).
Electricity production in the United States varies significantly from region to region and has
been changing over time. Hydroelectric plants provide a large percentage of electricity in
the Northwest, while coal-fired power plants produce the majority of electricity in the
Midwest. Natural gas, wind, and solar have increased their electricity market share in many
regions of the country. Nuclear power plants make up most of the balance of U.S.
electricity production. In order to bracket the possible GHG emissions impact, Table E.4
provides ranges with the low end of the range corresponding to the California power plant
GHG emissions factor, the middle of the range represented by the national average power
E-5
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plant GHG emissions factor, and the upper end of the range corresponding to the power
plant GHG emissions factor for part of the Midwest (Illinois and Missouri).
Table E.4. Model Year 2020 Example EV and PHEV Upstream CO2 Emission
Metrics (g/mi)
Tailpipe + Total Tailpipe + Net
Manufacturer
Model
Fuel or
Powertrain
Upstream C02
Upstream C02
Low
Avg
High
Low
Avg
High
GM
Bolt
EV
73
136
232
20
82
179
Nissan
Leaf 62 kWh
EV
80
148
254
23
91
197
Tesla
Model 3 LR
EV
66
122
210
4
60
148
FCA
Pacifica
PHEV
213
267
351
128
182
267
Ford
Escape
PHEV
152
199
273
94
142
215
Honda
Clarity
PHEV
129
178
255
72
120
197
Toyota
Prius Prime
PHEV
131
160
205
82
111
155
Volvo
XC90
PHEV
305
359
444
221
275
359
Average Sedan/Wagon
346
346
346
277
277
277
Based on data from EPA's eGRID power plant database,30 and accounting for additional
greenhouse gas emissions impacts for feedstock processing upstream of the power
plant,31 EPA estimates that the electricity CO2 emission factors for various regions of the
country vary from 256 g C02/kW-hr in California to 811 g C02/kW-hr in the Midwest, with a
national average of 473 g C02/kW-hr. Emission rates for small regions in upstate New York
and Alaska have lower electricity upstream CO2 emission rates than California. However,
California is a good surrogate for the "low" end of the range because California is a leading
market for current EVs and PHEVs. Initial sales of electric vehicles have been largely, though
not exclusively, focused in regions of the country with power plant CO2 emissions factors
lower than the national average, such as California, New York, and other coastal areas.
Accordingly, in terms of CO2 emissions, EPA believes that the current "sales-weighted
average" vehicle operating on electricity in the near term will likely fall somewhere between
the low end of this range and the national average.32
30 Abt Associates 2020. The emissions & generation resource integrated database technical support document
for eGRID 2018, prepared for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, January 2020.
31 Argonne National Laboratory 2019. GREET_1_2019 Model, greet.es.anl.gov.
32 To estimate the upstream greenhouse gas emissions associated with operating an EV or PHEV in a specific
geographical area, use the emissions calculator at www.fueleconomv.gov/feg/Find.do?action=bt2.
E-6
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The fourth through sixth columns in Table E.4 provide the range of tailpipe plus total
upstream CO2 emissions for EVs and PHEVs based on regional electricity emission rates.
For comparison, the average model year 2020 car is also included in the last row of Table
E.4. The methodology used to calculate the range of tailpipe plus total upstream CO2
emissions for EVs is shown in the following example for the model year 2020 Nissan Leaf
(62 kWh battery):
• Start with the label (5-cycle values weighted 55% city / 45% highway) vehicle
electricity consumption in kW-hr/mile, which for the Leaf is 31 kW-hr/100 miles, or
0.31 kW-hr/mile
• Determine the regional powerplant emission rate, regional losses during electricity
distribution, and the additional regional emissions due to fuel production upstream
of the powerplant (for California, these numbers are 225 g/kW-hr, 4.8%, and 8.3%,
respectively).
• Determine the regional upstream emission factor (for California 225 g/kW-hr / (1 -
0.048) * (1 +0.083) = 256 g C02/kW-hr)33
• Multiply by the range of Low (California = 256g CCh/kW-hr), Average (National
Average = 473 g C02/kW-hr), and High (Midwest = 811 g C02/kW-hr) electricity
upstream CO2 emission rates, which yields a range for the Leaf of 80-254 grams
C02/mile.
The tailpipe plus total upstream CO2 emissions values for PHEVs include the upstream CO2
emissions due to electricity operation and both the tailpipe and upstream CO2 emissions
due to gasoline operation, using the utility factor discussed above to weight the values for
electricity and gasoline operation. The tailpipe plus total upstream CO2 emissions values
for the average car are the average real-world model year 2018 car tailpipe CO2 emissions
multiplied by 1.25 to account for upstream emissions due to gasoline production.
The values in columns four through six are tailpipe plus total upstream CO2 emissions. As
mentioned, all of the gasoline and diesel vehicle CO2 emissions data in the rest of this
report refer only to tailpipe emissions and do not reflect the upstream emissions
associated with gasoline or diesel production and distribution. Accordingly, in order to
equitably compare the overall relative impact of EVs and PHEVs with tailpipe emissions of
petroleum-fueled vehicles, EPA uses the metric "tailpipe plus net upstream emissions" for
EVs and PHEVs. The net upstream emissions for an EV is equal to the total upstream
33The actual calculations were done with unrounded numbers. Using the rounded numbers provided here may
result in a slightly different number due to rounding error.
-------
emissions for the EV minus the upstream emissions that would be expected from a
comparably sized gasoline vehicle; size is a good first-order measure for utility, and
footprint is the size-based metric used for standards compliance. The net upstream
emissions for PHEVs are equal to the net upstream emissions of the PHEV due to electricity
consumption in electric or blended mode multiplied by the utility factor. The net upstream
emissions for a gasoline vehicle are zero. This approach was adopted for EV and PHEV
regulatory compliance with the 2012-2016 light-duty vehicle GHG emissions standards for
the production of EVs and PHEVs beyond a threshold; however, those thresholds were
never exceeded.
For each EV or PHEV, the upstream emissions for a comparable gasoline vehicle are
determined by first using the footprint-based compliance curves to determine the CO2
compliance target for a vehicle with the same footprint. Since upstream emissions account
for approximately 20% of total CO2 emissions for gasoline vehicles, the upstream emissions
for the comparable gasoline vehicle are equal to one-fourth of the tailpipe-only compliance
target.
The final three columns of Table E.4 give the tailpipe plus net upstream CO2 values for EVs
and PHEVs using the same Low, Average, and High electricity upstream CO2 emissions rates
discussed above. These values bracket the possible real-world net CO2 emissions that
would be associated with consumer use of these vehicles. For the Leaf, these values are
simply the values in columns four through six minus the upstream GHG emissions of a
comparably sized gasoline vehicle. Based on the model year 2020 CO2 footprint curve, the
5-cycle tailpipe GHG emissions for a Leaf-sized gasoline vehicle meeting its compliance
target would be close to 226 grams/mi, with upstream emissions of one-fourth of this
value, or 57 g/mi. The net upstream emision for a Leaf (with the 62 kWh battery) are
determined by subtracting this value, 57 g/mi, from the total (tailpipe + total upstream).
The result is a range for the tailpipe plus net upstream value of 23-197 g/mile as shown in
Table E.4, with a more likely sales-weighted value in the 23-91 g/mi range.
For PHEVs, the tailpipe plus net upstream emissions values use the utility factor values
discussed above to weight the individual values for electric operation and gasoline
operation.
Alternative Metric
Determining metrics for EVs and PHEVs that are meaningful and accurate is challenging. In
particular, vehicles capable of using dual fuels, such as PHEVs, can have complicated
modes of operation that make it difficult to determine meaningful metrics. Here we've
E-8
-------
discussed several metrics that are used on the EPA/DOT Fuel Economy and Environment
Labels and in a regulatory context, namely mpge, tailpipe CO2 emissions, and net upstream
GHG emissions. There are, however, other ways that alternative fuel vehicle operation can
be quantified.
Other energy metric options that could be considered include: (1) mpge plus net fuel life
cycle energy, which would also reflect differences in upstream energy consumption in
producing the alternative fuel relative to gasoline-from-oil; and (2) miles per gallon of
gasoline, which would only count gasoline use and not other forms of energy. Compared to
mpge, using the mpge plus net fuel life-cycle energy metric would generally result in lower
fuel economy values, and using the miles per gallon of gasoline metric would yield higher
fuel economy values.
Additional Note on PHEV Calculations
Calculating fuel economy and CO2 emission values for PHEVs is a complicated process, as
discussed in this section. The examples given for individual vehicles were based on
calculations behind the EPA/DOT Fuel Economy and Environment Labels. In addition to the
approach used for the labels, there are multiple methods for determining utility factors
depending on the intended use of the value. The standardized utility factor calculations are
defined in the Society of Automobile Engineers (SAE) document SAE J2841.
The utility factors that are used for fleetwide calculations are somewhat different than
those used to create label values. For label values, multi-day individual utility factors
(MDIUF) are used to incorporate "a driver's day to day variation into the utility calculation."
For fleetwide calculations, fleet utility factors (FUF) are applied to "calculate the expected
fuel and electric consumption of an entire fleet of vehicles." Since the Trends report is
generally a fleetwide analysis, the FUF utility factors were applied, instead of the MDIUF
utility factors, when the data were integrated with the rest of the fleet data. Additionally,
since Trends uses a 43% city / 57% highway weighting for combining real-world fuel
economy and CO2 data, the FUF utility factors created for Trends were based on that
weighting, not on 55% city / 45% highway weighting used on the fuel economy label.
i
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F. Authors and Acknowledgments
The authors of this year's Trends report are Aaron Hula, Andrea Maguire, Amy Bunker,
Tristan Rojeck, and Sarah Harrison, all of whom work for the EPA Office of Transportation
and Air Quality's (OTAQ) at the National Vehicle and Fuel Emissions Laboratory in Ann
Arbor, Michigan. OTAQ colleagues including Sara Zaremski, Line Wehrly, Robert
Peavyhouse, and Karen Danzeisen provided critical access and expertise pertaining to the
EV-CIS data that comprise the Trends database. The authors also want to thank Gwen
Dietrich and Eloise Anagnost of OTAQ for greatly improving the design and layout of the
report. General Dynamics Information Technology (GDIT) under contract to OTAQ (contract
number EP-C-16-012), provided key support for database maintenance, and table and
figure generation. DOT/NHTSA staff reviewed the report and provided helpful comments.
Of course, the EPA authors take full responsibility for the content and any errors.
The authors also want to acknowledge those OTAQ staff that played key roles in creating
and maintaining the Trends database and report since its inception in the early 1970s. Karl
Hellman, who conceived of and developed the initial Trends reports with Thomas Austin in
the early 1970s, was the guiding force behind the Trends report for over 30 years. Dill
Murrell made significant contributions from the late 1970s through the early 1990s, and
Robert Heavenrich was a lead author from the early 1980s through 2006. Jeff Alson
oversaw the continued transformation and modernization of this report from 2007
through 2018. The compliance portion of this report (now section 5), was developed by
Roberts French, and he remained the lead author through the 2019 report. This report has
benefitted immensely from the wealth of insight, creativity, and dedication from each of
these outstanding emeritus authors.
1 1
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Report Tables
Section 2 Tables
• Table 2.1: Production, Estimated Real-World CO2, and Fuel Economy for Model Year
1975-2020
• Table 2.2: Manufacturers and Vehicles with the Highest Fuel Economy, by Year
• Table 2.3: Manufacturer Estimated Real-World Fuel Economy and CO2 Emissions for
Model Year 2018-2020
Section 3 Tables
• Table 3.1: Vehicle Attributes by Model Year
• Table 3.2: Estimated Real-World Fuel Economy and CO2 by Vehicle Type
• Table 3.3: Model Year 2019 Vehicle Attributes by Manufacturer
• Table 3.4: Model Year 2019 Estimated Real-World Fuel Economy and CO2 by
Manufacturer and Vehicle Type
• Table 3.5: Footprint by Manufacturer for Model Year 2018-2020 (ft2)
Section 4 Tables
• Table 4.1: Production Share by Engine Technologies
• Table 4.2: Production Share by Transmission Technologies
• Table 4.3: Production Share by Drive Technology
Section 5 Figures
• Figure 5.3: Changes in "2-Cycle" Tailpipe CO2 Emissions, Model Year 2012 to 2019 (g/mi)
• Figure 5.4: Model Year 2019 Production of EVs, PHEVs, and FCVs
• Figure 5.5: Model Year 2019 Advanced Technology Credits by Manufacturer
• Figure 5.6: Production of FFVs, Model Year 2012-2019
• Figure 5.7: FFV Credits by Model Year (g/mi)
• Figure 5.8: HFO-1234yf Adoption by Manufacturer (Production Volume)
• Figure 5.9: Fleetwide A/C Credits by Credit Type
• Figure 5.10: Total A/C Credits by Manufacturer for Model Year 2019
• Figure 5.11: Off-Cycle Menu Technology Adoption by Manufacturer, Model Year 2019
• Figure 5.12: Total Off-Cycle Credits by Manufacturer for Model Year 2019
• Figure 5.13: Performance and Standards by Manufacturer, 2019 Model Year
• Figure 5.14: Early Credits by Manufacturer
• Figure 5.15: Total Credits Transactions Through Model Year 2019
• Figure 5.16: Manufacturer Credit Balance After Model Year 2019
• Figure 5.17: Industry Performance and Standards, Credit Generation and Use
-------
Report Tabl es, continued
Section 5 Tables
• Table 5.1: Manufacturer Footprint and Standards for Model Year 2019
• Table 5.2: Production Multipliers by Model Year
• Table 5.3: Model Year 2019 Off-Cycle Technology Credits from the Menu, by
Manufacturer and Technology (g/ml)
• Table 5.4: Model Year 2019 Off-Cycle Technology Credits from an Alternative
Methodology, by Manufacturer and Technology (g/ml)
• Table 5.5: Manufacturer Performance in Model Year 2019, All (g/ml)
• Table 5.6: Industry Performance by Model Year, All (g/ml)
• Table 5.7: Manufacturer Performance in Model Year 2019, Car (g/ml)
• Table 5.8: Industry Performance by Model Year, Car (g/ml)
• Table 5.9: Manufacturer Performance in Model Year 2019, Truck (g/ml)
• Table 5.10: Industry Performance by Model Year, Truck (g/ml)
• Table 5.11: Credits Earned by Manufacturers in Model Year 2019, All
• Table 5.12: Total Credits Earned in Model Years 2009-2019, All
• Table 5.13: Credits Earned by Manufacturers in Model Year 2019, Car
• Table 5.14: Total Credits Earned in Model Years 2009-2019, Car
• Table 5.15: Credits Earned by Manufacturers in Model Year 2019, Truck
• Table 5.16: Total Credits Earned in Model Years 2009-2019, Truck
• Table 5.18: Final Credit Balance by Manufacturer for Model Year 2019 (Mg)
• Table 5.19: Distribution of Credits by Expiration Date (Mg)
Appendices
• Table A.1: Comparison of Preliminary and Final Real-World Fuel Economy Values (mpg)
• Table C.1: Fuel Economy Metrics for the Model Year 2020 Toyota Prius Eco
• Table E.1: Model Year 2020 Example EV and PHEV Powertrain and Range
• Table E.2: Model Year 2020 Example EV and PHEV Fuel Economy Label Metrics
• Table E.3: Model Year 2020 Example EV and PHEV Label Tailpipe C02 Emissions Metrics
• Table E.4: Model Year 2020 EV and PHEV Upstream C02 Emission Metrics Metrics (g/mi)
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£% United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
2020 Automotive Trends Report
Section 2 Tables
Office of Transportation and Air Quality
EPA-420-R-21-003
January 2021
Table 2.1
Production, Estimated Real-World C02, and Fuel
Economy for Model Year 1975-2020
Model Year
Production
(000)
Real-World
C02 (g/mi)
Real-World
FE (mpg)
1975
10,224
681
13.1
1976
12,334
625
14.2
1977
14,123
590
15.1
1978
14,448
562
15.8
1979
13,882
560
15.9
1980
11,306
466
19.2
1981
10,554
436
20.5
1982
9,732
425
21.1
1983
10,302
426
21.0
1984
14,020
424
21.0
1985
14,460
417
21.3
1986
15,365
407
21.8
1987
14,865
405
22.0
1988
15,295
407
21.9
1989
14,453
415
21.4
1990
12,615
420
21.2
1991
12,573
418
21.3
1992
12,172
427
20.8
1993
13,211
426
20.9
1994
14,125
436
20.4
1995
15,145
434
20.5
1996
13,144
435
20.4
1997
14,458
441
20.2
1998
14,456
442
20.1
1999
15,215
451
19.7
2000
16,571
450
19.8
2001
15,605
453
19.6
2002
16,115
457
19.5
2003
15,773
454
19.6
2004
15,709
461
19.3
2005
15,892
447
19.9
2006
15,104
442
20.1
2007
15,276
431
20.6
2008
13,898
424
21.0
2009
9,316
397
22.4
2010
11,116
394
22.6
2011
12,018
399
22.3
2012
13,449
377
23.6
2013
15,198
368
24.2
2014
15,512
369
24.1
2015
16,739
360
24.6
2016
16,278
359
24.7
2017
17,016
357
24.9
2018
16,259
353
25.1
2019
16,139
356
24.9
2020 (prelim)
-
344
25.7
1
-------
£% United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
2020 Automotive Trends Report
Section 2 Tables
Office of Transportation and Air Quality
EPA-420-R-21-003
January 2021
Table 2.2
Manufacturers and Vehicles with the Highest Fuel Economy, by Year
Overall Vehicle with
Gasoline (Non-Hybrid) Vehicle
Highest Fuel Economy**
with Highest Fuel Economy (mpg)
Manufacturer
Manufacturer
with Highest
with Lowest
Real-World
Fuel Economy*
Fuel Economy
FE
Engine
Real-World
Model Year
(mpg)
(mpg)
Vehicle
(mpg)
Type
Gasoline Vehicle
FE (mpg)
1975
Honda
Ford
Honda Civic
28.3
Gas
Honda Civic
28.3
1976
Honda
Ford
Honda Civic
30.5
Gas
Honda Civic
30.5
1977
Honda
FCA
Honda Civic
37.6
Gas
Honda Civic
37.6
1978
Mazda
Ford
VW Rabbit
37.5
Diesel
Nissan B-210
34.3
1979
Honda
Ford
VW Rabbit
39.1
Diesel
Nissan 210
33.6
1980
VW
Ford
VW Rabbit
40.3
Diesel
Nissan 210
36.1
1981
VW
Ford
VW Rabbit
40.9
Diesel
Toyota Starlet
37.9
1982
Honda
Ford
VW Rabbit
42.7
Diesel
Nissan Sentra
41.0
1983
Honda
Ford
Nissan Sentra
45.3
Diesel
Honda Civic
42.4
1984
Honda
Ford
Honda Civic
48.0
Gas
Honda Civic
48.0
1985
Honda
Mercedes
GM Sprint
49.6
Gas
GM Sprint
49.6
1986
Hyundai
Mercedes
GM Sprint
56.8
Gas
GM Sprint
56.8
1987
Hyundai
Mercedes
GM Sprint
54.8
Gas
GM Sprint
54.8
1988
Hyundai
Mercedes
GM Metro
54.4
Gas
GM Metro
54.4
1989
Hyundai
Mercedes
Honda Civic
50.6
Gas
Honda Civic
50.6
1990
Hyundai
Mercedes
GM Metro
53.4
Gas
GM Metro
53.4
1991
Hyundai
Mercedes
GM Metro
53.0
Gas
GM Metro
53.0
1992
Hyundai
Mercedes
GM Metro
52.6
Gas
GM Metro
52.6
1993
Honda
Mercedes
GM Metro
52.2
Gas
GM Metro
52.2
1994
Kia
FCA
GM Metro
52.2
Gas
GM Metro
52.2
1995
Honda
FCA
Honda Civic
47.3
Gas
Honda Civic
47.3
1996
Hyundai
FCA
Suzuki Swift
43.3
Gas
Suzuki Swift
43.3
1997
Hyundai
FCA
GM Metro
42.8
Gas
GM Metro
42.8
1998
Honda
FCA
GM Metro
42.0
Gas
GM Metro
42.0
1999
Hyundai
FCA
VW Jetta
41.0
Diesel
GM Metro
39.3
2000
Hyundai
FCA
Honda Insight
57.4
Hybr
d
GM Metro
39.4
2001
Hyundai
FCA
Honda Insight
56.3
Hybr
d
Honda Civic
37.3
2002
Honda
FCA
Honda Insight
55.6
Hybr
d
Honda Civic
35.9
2003
Honda
Ford
Honda Insight
55.0
Hybr
d
Honda Civic
35.5
2004
Honda
Ford
Honda Insight
53.5
Hybr
d
Honda Civic
35.3
2005
Honda
Ford
Honda Insight
53.3
Hybr
d
Honda Civic
35.1
2006
Mazda
Ford
Honda Insight
53.0
Hybr
d
Toyota Corolla
32.3
2007
Toyota
Mercedes
Toyota Prius
46.2
Hybr
d
Toyota Yaris
32.6
2008
Hyundai
Mercedes
Toyota Prius
46.2
Hybr
d
Smart Fortwo
37.1
2009
Toyota
FCA
Toyota Prius
46.2
Hybr
d
Smart Fortwo
37.1
2010
Hyundai
Mercedes
Honda FCX
60.2
FCV
Smart Fortwo
36.8
2011
Hyundai
Mercedes
BMW Active E
100.6
EV
Smart Fortwo
35.7
2012
Hyundai
FCA
Nissan i-MiEV
109.0
EV
Toyota iQ
36.8
2013
Hyundai
FCA
Toyota IQ
117.0
EV
Toyota iQ
36.8
2014
Mazda
FCA
BMW i3
121.3
EV
Mitsubishi Mirage
39.5
2015
Mazda
FCA
BMW i3
121.3
EV
Mitsubishi Mirage
39.5
2016
Mazda
FCA
BMW i3
121.3
EV
Mazda 2
37.1
2017
Honda
FCA
Hyundai loniq
132.6
EV
Mitsubishi Mirage
41.5
2018
Tesla
FCA
Hyundai loniq
132.6
EV
Mitsubishi Mirage
41.5
2
-------
£% United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
2020 Automotive Trends Report
Section 2 Tables
Office of Transportation and Air Quality
EPA-420-R-21-003
January 2021
Table 2.2
Manufacturers and Vehicles with the Highest Fuel Economy, by Year
Overall Vehicle with
Highest Fuel Economy**
Gasoline (Non-Hybrid) Vehicle
with Highest Fuel Economy (mpg)
Model Year
Manufacturer Manufacturer
with Highest with Lowest
Fuel Economy* Fuel Economy
(mpg) (mpg)
Real-World
FE Engine
Vehicle (mpg) Type
Real-World
Gasoline Vehicle FE (mpg)
2019
2020 (prelim)
Tesla FCA
Tesla FCA
Hyundai loniq 132.6 EV
Tesla Model 3 SR+ 138.6 EV
Mitsubishi Mirage 41.6
Mitsubishi Mirage 40.1
* Manufacturers below the 125,000 threshold for "large" manufacturers are excluded in years they did not meet the threshold.
** Vehicles are shown based on estimated real-world fuel economy as calculated for this report. These values will differ from values found on
the fuel economy labels at the time of sale. For more information on fuel economy metrics see Appendix C.
3
-------
v»EPA
United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
2020 Automotive Trends Report
Section 2 Tables
Office of Transportation and Air Quality
EPA-420-R-21-003
January 2021
Table 2.3
Manufacturer Estimated Real-World Fuel Economy and C02 Emissions for Model Year 2018 - 2020
MY 2018 Final
MY 2019 Final
MY 2020 Preliminary
FE Change
C02 Change
Real-World
Real-World
Real-World
from
Real-World
from
Real-World
Real-World
FE
C02
FE
MY 2018
co2
MY 2018
FE
CO 2
Manufacturer
(mPg)
(g/mi)
(mPg)
(mPg)
(g/mi)
(g/mi)
(mpg)
(g/mi)
BMW
26.0
339
26.2
0.2
337
-2
25.5
346
FCA
21.7
409
21.2
-0.5
418
9
21.8
408
Ford
22.4
397
22.5
0.1
395
-2
23.3
381
GM
23.0
386
22.5
-0.5
395
9
22.8
391
Honda
30.0
296
28.9
-1.1
307
12
29.7
299
Hyundai
28.6
311
28.5
0.0
311
-1
28.9
306
Kia
27.8
319
28.1
0.3
316
-4
27.3
324
Mazda
28.7
310
27.8
-0.9
320
10
27.6
323
Mercedes
23.5
377
23.7
0.2
374
-3
23.9
372
Nissan
27.1
327
27.0
-0.2
329
2
27.4
323
Subaru
28.7
310
28.4
-0.3
312
3
28.3
313
Tesla
113.7
0
118.0
4.3
0
0
119.1
0
Toyota
25.5
348
25.8
0.3
345
-3
26.2
339
VW
24.6
361
26.1
1.5
338
-23
24.4
360
All Manufacturers
25.1
353
24.9
-0.2
356
3
25.7
344
4
-------
a r-riA United States
Environmental Protection
M * Agency
2020 Automotive Trends Report
Section 3 Tables
Office of Transportation and Air Quality
E PA-420-R-21-003
January 2021
Table 3.1
Vehicle Attributes by Model Year
Car
Truck
Real-World
Real-World
Weight
Horsepo
Oto 60
Footprint
Production
Production
Model Year
CO, (g/mi)
FE (mpg)
(lbs)
wer (HP)
(s)
(ft2)
Share
Share
1975
681
13.1
4,060
137
-
-
80.7%
19.3%
1976
625
14.2
4,079
135
-
-
78.9%
21.1%
1977
590
15.1
3,982
136
-
-
80.1%
19.9%
1978
562
15.8
3,715
129
13.6
-
77.5%
22.5%
1979
560
15.9
3,655
124
14.6
-
77.9%
22.1%
1980
466
19.2
3,228
104
15.6
-
83.5%
16.5%
1981
436
20.5
3,202
102
15.6
-
82.8%
17.2%
1982
425
21.1
3,202
103
16.6
-
80.5%
19.5%
1983
426
21.0
3,257
107
14.9
-
78.0%
22.0%
1984
424
21.0
3,262
109
14.7
-
76.5%
23.5%
1985
417
21.3
3,271
114
14.1
-
75.2%
24.8%
1986
407
21.8
3,238
114
13.4
-
72.1%
27.9%
1987
405
22.0
3,221
118
13.4
-
72.8%
27.2%
1988
407
21.9
3,283
123
13.3
-
70.9%
29.1%
1989
415
21.4
3,351
129
12.5
-
70.1%
29.9%
1990
420
21.2
3,426
135
11.5
-
70.4%
29.6%
1991
418
21.3
3,410
138
11.5
-
69.6%
30.4%
1992
427
20.8
3,512
145
11.0
-
68.6%
31.4%
1993
426
20.9
3,519
147
10.3
-
67.6%
32.4%
1994
436
20.4
3,603
152
10.1
-
61.9%
38.1%
1995
434
20.5
3,613
158
10.1
-
63.5%
36.5%
1996
435
20.4
3,659
164
10.4
-
62.2%
37.8%
1997
441
20.1
3,727
169
10.2
-
60.1%
39.9%
1998
442
20.1
3,744
171
10.4
-
58.3%
41.7%
1999
451
19.7
3,835
179
10.3
-
58.3%
41.7%
2000
450
19.8
3,821
181
9.8
-
58.8%
41.2%
2001
453
19.6
3,879
187
9.5
-
58.6%
41.4%
2002
457
19.5
3,951
195
9.4
-
55.2%
44.8%
2003
454
19.6
3,999
199
9.3
-
53.9%
46.1%
2004
461
19.3
4,111
211
9.1
-
52.0%
48.0%
2005
447
19.9
4,059
209
9.0
-
55.6%
44.4%
2006
442
20.1
4,067
213
8.9
-
57.9%
42.1%
2007
431
20.6
4,093
217
8.9
-
58.9%
41.1%
2008
424
21.0
4,085
219
8.9
48.9
59.3%
40.7%
2009
397
22.4
3,914
208
8.8
47.9
67.0%
33.0%
2010
394
22.6
4,001
214
8.8
48.5
62.8%
37.2%
2011
399
22.3
4,126
230
8.5
49.5
57.8%
42.2%
2012
377
23.6
3,979
222
8.5
48.8
64.4%
35.6%
2013
368
24.2
4,003
226
8.4
49.1
64.1%
35.9%
2014
369
24.1
4,060
230
8.3
49.7
59.3%
40.7%
2015
360
24.6
4,035
229
8.3
49.4
57.4%
42.6%
2016
359
24.7
4,035
230
8.3
49.5
55.3%
44.7%
2017
357
24.9
4,093
234
8.2
49.8
52.6%
47.4%
2018
353
25.1
4,137
241
8.0
50.4
48.0%
52.0%
2019
356
24.9
4,156
245
7.9
50.8
44.4%
55.6%
2020 (prelim)
344
25.7
4,177
247
7.7
50.4
42.8%
57.2%
5
-------
Jfc United States
Environmental Protection
JH^WlAgency
2020 Automotive Trends Report
Section 3 Tables
Office of Transportation and Air Quality
EPA-420-R-21-003
January 2021
Table 3.2
Estimated Real-World Fuel Economy and C02 by Vehicle Type
Sedan/Wagon
Car SUV
Truck SUV
Minivan/Va
n
Pickup
Real-
Real-
Real-
Real-
Real-
World
Real-
World
Real-
World
Real-
World
Real-
World
Real-
Prod
C02
World FE
Prod
C02
World FE
Prod
C02
World FE
Prod
C02
World FE
Prod
C02
World FE
Model Year
Share
(g/mi)
(mpg)
Share
(g/mi)
(mpg)
Share
(g/mi)
(mpg)
Share
(g/mi)
(mpg)
Share
(g/mi)
(mpg)
1975
80.6%
660
13.5
0.1%
799
11.1
1.7%
806
11.0
4.5%
800
11.1
13.1%
746
11.9
1976
78.8%
598
14.9
0.1%
840
10.6
1.9%
755
11.8
4.1%
754
11.8
15.1%
714
12.4
1977
80.0%
570
15.6
0.1%
731
12.2
1.9%
692
12.8
3.6%
710
12.5
14.3%
656
13.6
1978
77.3%
525
16.9
0.1%
768
11.6
2.5%
723
12.3
4.3%
736
12.1
15.7%
668
13.3
1979
77.8%
517
17.2
0.1%
623
14.3
2.8%
844
10.5
3.5%
774
11.5
15.9%
674
13.2
1980
83.5%
446
20.0
0.0%
610
14.6
1.6%
676
13.2
2.1%
629
14.1
12.7%
541
16.5
1981
82.7%
418
21.4
0.0%
605
14.7
1.3%
621
14.3
2.3%
599
14.8
13.6%
500
17.9
1982
80.3%
402
22.2
0.1%
450
19.8
1.5%
616
14.7
3.2%
605
14.7
14.8%
486
18.5
1983
77.7%
403
22.1
0.3%
430
20.7
2.5%
568
15.8
3.7%
593
15.1
15.8%
473
18.9
1984
76.1%
397
22.4
0.4%
461
19.3
4.1%
551
16.2
4.8%
552
16.1
14.6%
488
18.3
1985
74.6%
387
23.0
0.6%
443
20.1
4.5%
538
16.5
5.9%
537
16.5
14.4%
489
18.2
1986
71.7%
375
23.7
0.4%
470
18.9
4.6%
523
17.0
6.8%
509
17.5
16.5%
471
18.9
1987
72.2%
373
23.8
0.6%
458
19.4
5.2%
515
17.3
7.5%
503
17.7
14.4%
467
19.0
1988
70.2%
368
24.1
0.7%
462
19.2
5.6%
522
17.0
7.4%
497
17.9
16.1%
490
18.1
1989
69.3%
375
23.7
0.7%
465
19.1
5.7%
537
16.6
8.8%
499
17.8
15.4%
499
17.8
1990
69.8%
381
23.3
0.5%
472
18.8
5.1%
541
16.4
10.0%
498
17.8
14.5%
511
17.4
1991
67.8%
379
23.4
1.8%
488
18.2
6.9%
531
16.7
8.2%
496
17.9
15.3%
489
18.2
1992
66.6%
385
23.1
2.0%
498
17.8
6.2%
548
16.2
10.0%
496
17.9
15.1%
508
17.5
1993
64.0%
379
23.5
3.6%
522
17.0
6.3%
546
16.3
10.9%
488
18.2
15.2%
505
17.6
1994
59.6%
382
23.3
2.3%
493
18.0
9.1%
555
16.0
10.0%
498
17.8
18.9%
510
17.4
1995
62.0%
379
23.4
1.5%
499
17.8
10.5%
555
16.0
11.0%
492
18.1
15.0%
526
16.9
1996
60.0%
381
23.3
2.2%
482
18.4
12.2%
548
16.2
10.7%
485
18.3
14.9%
518
17.1
1997
57.6%
380
23.4
2.5%
462
19.2
14.5%
551
16.1
8.8%
489
18.2
16.7%
528
16.8
1998
55.1%
380
23.4
3.1%
487
18.2
14.7%
550
16.2
10.3%
475
18.7
16.7%
523
17.0
1999
55.1%
386
23.0
3.2%
480
18.5
15.4%
553
16.1
9.6%
486
18.3
16.7%
546
16.3
2000
55.1%
388
22.9
3.7%
497
17.9
15.2%
555
16.0
10.2%
478
18.6
15.8%
534
16.7
2001
53.9%
386
23.0
4.8%
472
18.8
17.3%
541
16.4
7.9%
493
18.0
16.1%
557
16.0
2002
51.5%
385
23.1
3.7%
460
19.3
22.3%
545
16.3
7.7%
475
18.7
14.8%
564
15.8
2003
50.2%
382
23.3
3.6%
446
19.9
22.6%
541
16.4
7.8%
468
19.0
15.7%
553
16.1
2004
48.0%
384
23.1
4.1%
445
20.0
25.9%
539
16.5
6.1%
464
19.2
15.9%
565
15.7
2005
50.5%
379
23.5
5.1%
440
20.2
20.6%
531
16.7
9.3%
460
19.3
14.5%
561
15.8
2006
52.9%
382
23.3
5.0%
434
20.5
19.9%
518
17.2
7.7%
455
19.5
14.5%
551
16.1
2007
52.9%
369
24.1
6.0%
431
20.6
21.7%
503
17.7
5.5%
456
19.5
13.8%
550
16.2
2008
52.7%
366
24.3
6.6%
419
21.2
22.1%
489
18.2
5.7%
448
19.8
12.9%
539
16.5
2009
60.5%
351
25.3
6.5%
403
22.0
18.4%
461
19.3
4.0%
443
20.1
10.6%
526
16.9
2010
54.5%
340
26.2
8.2%
386
23.0
20.7%
452
19.7
5.0%
442
20.1
11.5%
527
16.9
2011
47.8%
344
25.8
10.0%
378
23.5
25.5%
449
19.8
4.3%
424
20.9
12.3%
516
17.2
2012
55.0%
322
27.6
9.4%
381
23.3
20.6%
445
20.0
4.9%
418
21.3
10.1%
516
17.2
2013
54.1%
313
28.4
10.0%
365
24.3
21.8%
427
20.8
3.8%
422
21.1
10.4%
509
17.5
2014
49.2%
313
28.4
10.1%
364
24.4
23.9%
412
21.6
4.3%
418
21.3
12.4%
493
18.0
2015
47.2%
306
29.0
10.2%
353
25.1
28.1%
406
21.9
3.9%
408
21.8
10.7%
474
18.8
2016
43.8%
303
29.2
11.5%
338
26.2
29.1%
400
22.2
3.9%
410
21.7
11.7%
471
18.9
2017
41.0%
293
30.2
11.6%
339
26.1
31.7%
398
22.3
3.6%
399
22.2
12.1%
470
18.9
2018
36.7%
286
30.8
11.3%
324
27.3
35.0%
384
23.1
3.1%
389
22.8
13.9%
466
19.1
2019
32.7%
285
30.9
11.7%
323
27.5
36.5%
378
23.5
3.4%
396
22.4
15.6%
467
19.0
2020 (prelim)
33.3%
272
32.0
9.5%
293
29.5
40.8%
372
23.9
2.6%
383
23.0
13.7%
460
19.5
6
-------
United States
Environmental Protection
*m Agency
2020 Automotive Trends Report
Section 3 Tables
Office of Transportation and Air Quality
EPA-420-R-21-003
January 2021
Table 3.3
Model Year 2019 Vehicle Attributes by Manufacturer
Manufacturer
Real-World
C02 (g/mi)
Real-World FE
(mPg)
Weight
(lbs)
Horsepower
(HP)
Oto 60
(s)
Footprint
(ft2)
BMW
337
26.2
4,248
277
6.9
49.3
FCA
418
21.2
4,631
299
7.2
54.9
Ford
395
22.5
4,482
285
7.4
55.3
GM
395
22.5
4,438
273
7.7
54.2
Honda
307
28.9
3,661
207
8.0
47.8
Hyundai
311
28.5
3,494
174
8.9
46.6
Kia
316
28.1
3,585
186
8.7
47.0
Mazda
320
27.8
3,831
191
8.9
46.3
Mercedes
374
23.7
4,390
287
6.8
49.5
Nissan
329
27.0
3,811
202
8.9
48.1
Subaru
312
28.4
3,893
186
9.4
45.9
Tesla
0
118.0
4,436
392
4.8
49.9
Toyota
345
25.8
4,120
233
8.0
49.5
VW
338
26.1
4,141
236
7.7
48.2
Other
351
25.2
4,202
248
8.3
48.0
All Manufacturers
356
24.9
4,156
245
7.9
50.8
7
-------
Office of Transportation and Air Quality
EPA-420-R-21-003
January 2021
Table 3.4
Model Year 2019 Estimated Real-World Fuel Economy and C02 by Manufacturer and Vehicle Type
Sedan/Wagon
Car SUV
Truck SUV
Minivan/Van
Pickup
Real-
Real-
Real-
Real-
Real-
Real-
Real-
Real-
Real-
Real-
World
World
World
World
World
World
World
World
World
World
Prod
C02
FE
Prod
C02
FE
Prod
C02
FE
Prod
C02
FE
Prod
C02
FE
Manufacturer
Share
(g/mi)
(mpg)
Share
(g/mi)
(mpg)
Share
(g/mi)
(mpg)
Share
(g/mi)
(mpg)
Share
(g/mi)
(mpg)
BMW
57.3%
318
27.6
0.087
311
28.6
33.9%
377
23.6
-
-
-
-
-
-
FCA
11.3%
400
22.2
7.9%
337
26.4
40.3%
397
22.4
13.0%
406
21.9
27.4%
487
18.3
Ford
19.8%
315
28.1
11.4%
346
25.7
29.2%
412
21.6
2.6%
384
23.1
36.9%
440
20.2
GM
15.4%
313
28.0
17.7%
314
28.3
39.2%
408
21.8
-
-
-
27.6%
475
18.7
Honda
47.2%
265
33.4
10.1%
302
29.4
31.3%
343
25.9
8.0%
383
23.2
3.3%
409
21.7
Hyundai
48.9%
274
32.3
49.4%
343
25.8
1.7%
430
20.7
-
-
-
-
-
-
Kia
61.1%
277
31.9
5.9%
337
26.4
30.7%
381
23.3
2.2%
421
21.1
-
-
-
Mazda
30.0%
291
30.5
22.0%
311
28.6
47.9%
342
26.0
-
-
-
-
-
-
Mercedes
50.8%
348
25.6
12.7%
345
25.8
35.1%
423
20.9
1.4%
406
21.9
-
-
-
Nissan
55.8%
283
31.2
8.9%
300
29.6
23.9%
381
23.4
1.5%
353
25.2
9.9%
480
18.5
Subaru
19.2%
306
29.1
-
-
-
80.8%
314
28.3
-
-
-
-
-
-
Tesla
91.0%
0
121.4
6.4%
0
91.9
2.6%
0
92.8
-
-
-
-
-
-
Toyota
36.9%
267
33.3
9.9%
316
28.1
35.1%
371
23.9
2.4%
399
22.3
15.7%
478
18.6
VW
49.9%
292
30.3
-
-
-
50.1%
384
23.0
-
-
-
-
-
-
Other
18.4%
290
30.6
10.7%
329
27.0
70.7%
371
23.9
0.2%
345
25.7
-
-
-
All Manufacturers
32.7%
285
30.9
11.7%
323
27.5
36.5%
378
23.5
3.4%
396
22.4
15.6%
467
19.0
protection 2020 Automotive Trends Report
United States
Environmental
LAgency Section 3 Tables
8
-------
United States
Environmental Protection
*m Agency
2020 Automotive Trends Report
Section 3 Tables
Office of Transportation and Air Quality
EPA-420-R-21-003
January 2021
Table 3.5
Footprint by Manufacturer for Model Year 2018 - 2020 (ft2)
Manufacturer
Final MY 2018
Final MY 2019
Preliminary MY 2020
Car
Truck
All
Car
Truck
All
Car
Truck
All
BMW
47.3
51.1
48.3
47.7
52.3
49.3
47.8
51.8
49.3
FCA
48.9
52.8
52.0
49.3
56.3
54.9
48.3
54.1
53.2
Ford
46.6
59.9
55.3
46.9
59.1
55.3
47.8
56.0
54.0
GM
46.4
59.2
54.4
45.9
58.3
54.2
46.8
56.0
54.2
Honda
46.3
49.4
47.4
45.9
50.3
47.8
46.1
49.5
47.3
Hyundai
46.5
49.2
46.6
46.6
49.2
46.6
46.5
50.1
47.4
Kia
46.2
49.5
46.9
46.0
49.1
47.0
45.5
50.1
47.2
Mazda
45.6
47.9
46.5
44.9
47.7
46.3
45.7
47.1
46.4
Mercedes
48.3
51.3
49.6
48.6
51.0
49.5
49.0
52.5
50.8
Nissan
46.0
51.7
47.8
46.0
52.1
48.1
46.6
52.1
48.2
Subaru
44.9
45.0
45.0
44.9
46.1
45.9
44.8
46.2
45.9
Tesla
50.3
54.8
50.4
49.8
54.8
49.9
50.2
50.9
50.3
Toyota
46.1
51.6
48.8
46.5
52.0
49.5
46.1
52.2
49.2
VW
45.9
50.5
48.4
45.3
51.2
48.2
46.3
51.4
49.0
Other
45.0
49.4
48.1
44.5
49.5
48.0
45.6
49.0
48.1
All Manufacturers
46.5
53.9
50.4
46.5
54.2
50.8
46.8
53.1
50.4
9
-------
A IJmted States
|W|pUll Environmental Protection
Agency
2020 Automotive Trends Report
Section 4 Tables
Office of Transportation and Air Quality
EPA-420-R-21-003
January 2021
Table 4.1
Production Share by Engine Technologies
Model Year
Powertrain
Fuel Delivery Method
Avg. No. of
Cylinders
CID
HP
Multi-
Valve
VVT
CD
Turbo
Stop/
Start
Gasoline
Gasoline
Hybrid
Diesel
Other
Carb
GDI
Port
TBI
EV
FCV
1975
99.8%
0.2%
95.7%
-
4.1%
0.0%
-
6.8
293
137
-
-
-
-
1976
99.8%
0.2%
97.3%
-
2.5%
0.0%
-
6.9
294
135
-
-
-
-
1977
99.6%
0.4%
96.2%
-
3.4%
0.0%
-
6.9
287
136
-
-
-
-
1978
99.1%
0.9%
95.2%
-
3.9%
0.0%
-
6.7
266
129
-
-
-
1979
98.0%
2.0%
94.2%
-
3.7%
0.1%
-
6.5
252
124
-
-
1980
95.7%
4.3%
89.7%
-
5.2%
0.8%
-
5.6
198
104
-
-
1981
94.1%
5.9%
86.7%
-
5.1%
2.4%
-
5.5
193
102
-
1982
94.4%
5.6%
80.6%
-
5.8%
8.0%
-
5.4
188
103
-
1983
97.3%
2.7%
75.2%
-
7.3%
14.8%
-
5.5
193
107
-
-
-
-
1984
98.2%
1.8%
67.6%
-
11.9%
18.7%
-
5.5
190
109
-
-
-
-
1985
99.1%
0.9%
56.1%
-
18.2%
24.8%
-
5.5
189
114
-
-
-
-
1986
99.6%
0.4%
41.4%
-
32.5%
25.7%
-
5.3
180
114
3.4%
-
-
-
1987
99.7%
0.3%
28.4%
-
39.9%
31.4%
-
5.2
175
118
10.6%
-
-
-
1988
99.9%
0.1%
15.0%
-
50.6%
34.3%
-
5.3
180
123
14.0%
-
-
-
1989
99.9%
0.1%
8.7%
-
57.3%
33.9%
-
5.4
185
129
16.9%
-
-
-
1990
99.9%
0.1%
2.1%
-
70.8%
27.0%
-
5.4
185
135
23.1%
-
-
-
1991
99.9%
0.1%
0.6%
-
70.6%
28.7%
-
5.3
184
138
23.1%
-
-
-
1992
99.9%
0.1%
0.5%
-
81.6%
17.8%
-
5.5
191
145
23.3%
-
-
-
1993
100.0%
0.3%
-
85.0%
14.6%
-
5.5
191
147
23.5%
-
-
-
1994
100.0%
0.0%
0.1%
-
87.7%
12.1%
-
5.6
197
152
26.7%
-
-
-
1995
100.0%
0.0%
-
91.6%
8.4%
-
5.6
196
158
35.6%
-
-
-
1996
99.9%
0.1%
-
99.3%
0.7%
-
5.6
197
164
39.3%
-
-
0.2%
-
1997
99.9%
0.1%
-
99.5%
0.5%
-
5.7
199
169
39.6%
-
-
0.4%
-
1998
99.9%
0.1%
-
99.8%
0.1%
-
5.6
199
171
40.9%
-
-
0.8%
-
1999
99.9%
0.1%
-
99.9%
0.1%
-
5.8
203
179
43.4%
-
-
1.4%
-
2000
99.8%
0.0%
0.1%
-
99.8%
0.0%
-
5.7
200
181
44.8%
15.0%
-
1.3%
-
2001
99.7%
0.1%
0.1%
-
99.9%
-
5.8
201
187
49.0%
19.6%
-
2.0%
-
2002
99.6%
0.2%
0.2%
-
99.8%
-
5.8
203
195
53.3%
25.3%
-
2.2%
-
2003
99.5%
0.3%
0.2%
-
99.8%
-
5.8
204
199
55.5%
30.6%
-
1.2%
-
2004
99.4%
0.5%
0.1%
-
99.9%
-
5.9
212
211
62.3%
38.5%
-
2.3%
-
2005
98.6%
1.1%
0.3%
-
99.7%
-
5.8
205
209
65.6%
45.8%
0.8%
1.7%
-
2006
98.1%
1.5%
0.4%
-
99.6%
-
5.7
204
213
71.7%
55.4%
3.6%
2.1%
-
2007
97.7%
2.2%
0.1%
-
99.8%
-
5.6
203
217
71.7%
57.3%
7.3%
2.5%
-
2008
97.4%
2.5%
0.1%
2.3%
97.6%
-
5.6
199
219
76.4%
58.2%
6.7%
3.0%
-
2009
97.2%
2.3%
0.5%
4.2%
95.2%
-
5.2
183
208
83.8%
71.5%
7.3%
3.3%
-
2010
95.5%
3.8%
0.7%
0.0%
8.3%
91.0%
0.0%
5.3
188
214
85.5%
83.8%
6.4%
3.3%
-
2011
97.0%
2.2%
0.8%
0.1%
15.4%
83.8%
0.1%
0.0%
5.4
192
230
86.4%
93.1%
9.5%
6.8%
-
2012
95.5%
3.1%
0.9%
0.4%
22.5%
76.5%
0.1%
0.0%
5.1
181
222
91.8%
96.6%
8.1%
8.4%
0.6%
2013
94.8%
3.6%
0.9%
0.7%
30.5%
68.3%
0.3%
-
5.1
176
226
92.8%
97.4%
7.7%
13.9%
2.3%
2014
95.7%
2.6%
1.0%
0.7%
37.4%
61.3%
0.3%
0.0%
5.1
180
230
89.2%
97.6%
10.6%
14.8%
5.1%
2015
95.9%
2.4%
0.9%
0.7%
41.9%
56.7%
0.5%
0.0%
5.0
177
229
91.2%
97.2%
10.5%
15.7%
7.1%
2016
96.9%
1.8%
0.5%
0.8%
48.0%
51.0%
0.5%
0.0%
5.0
174
230
92.3%
98.0%
10.4%
19.9%
9.6%
2017
96.1%
2.3%
0.3%
1.4%
49.7%
49.4%
0.6%
0.0%
5.0
174
234
92.0%
98.1%
11.9%
23.4%
17.8%
2018
95.1%
2.3%
0.4%
2.2%
50.2%
48.0%
1.4%
0.0%
5.0
172
241
91.0%
96.4%
12.5%
30.0%
29.8%
2019
94.4%
3.8%
0.1%
1.7%
52.9%
45.7%
1.2%
0.0%
5.1
174
245
90.1%
97.2%
14.9%
30.0%
36.9%
2020 (prelim)
88.5%
6.5%
1.0%
4.0%
55.3%
40.3%
-
3.3%
0.0%
4.9
168
247
89.6%
94.0%
13.8%
35.3%
42.2%
10
-------
Office of Transportation and Air Quality
E PA-420-R-21-003
January 2021
Table 4.2
Production Share by Transmission Technologies
Model Year
Manual
Automatic
with Lockup
Automatic
without
Lockup
CVT (Hybrid)
CVT
(Non-
Hybrid)
Other
4 Gears
or Fewer
5 Gears
6
Gears
7
Gears
8
Gears
9+Gears
Avg. No.
of Gears
1975
23.0%
0.2%
76.8%
-
-
-
99.0%
1.0%
-
-
-
-
-
1976
20.9%
-
79.1%
-
-
-
100.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
1977
19.8%
-
80.2%
-
-
-
100.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
1978
22.7%
5.5%
71.9%
-
-
-
92.7%
7.3%
-
-
-
-
-
1979
24.2%
7.3%
68.1%
-
-
0.4%
93.8%
6.2%
-
-
-
-
3.3
1980
34.6%
18.1%
46.8%
-
-
0.5%
87.9%
12.1%
-
-
-
-
3.5
1981
33.6%
33.0%
32.9%
-
-
0.5%
85.6%
14.4%
-
-
-
-
3.5
1982
32.4%
47.8%
19.4%
-
-
0.4%
84.4%
15.6%
-
-
-
-
3.6
1983
30.5%
52.1%
17.0%
-
-
0.4%
80.9%
19.1%
-
-
-
-
3.7
1984
28.4%
52.8%
18.8%
-
-
0.0%
81.3%
18.7%
-
-
-
-
3.7
1985
26.5%
54.5%
19.1%
-
-
-
80.7%
19.3%
-
-
-
-
3.8
1986
29.8%
53.5%
16.7%
-
-
-
76.8%
23.2%
-
-
-
-
3.8
1987
29.1%
55.4%
15.5%
-
-
0.0%
76.2%
23.8%
-
-
-
-
3.9
1988
27.6%
62.2%
10.2%
-
-
-
76.8%
23.2%
-
-
-
-
3.9
1989
24.6%
65.5%
9.9%
-
0.1%
0.0%
78.5%
21.4%
0.0%
-
-
-
3.9
1990
22.2%
71.2%
6.5%
-
0.0%
0.0%
79.9%
20.0%
0.1%
-
-
-
4.0
1991
23.9%
71.6%
4.5%
-
0.0%
-
77.3%
22.6%
0.0%
-
-
-
4.0
1992
20.7%
74.8%
4.5%
-
0.0%
-
80.8%
19.2%
0.1%
-
-
-
4.0
1993
19.8%
76.5%
3.7%
-
0.0%
-
80.9%
19.0%
0.1%
-
-
-
4.0
1994
19.5%
77.6%
3.0%
-
-
-
80.8%
19.0%
0.2%
-
-
-
4.1
1995
17.9%
80.7%
1.4%
-
-
-
82.0%
17.7%
0.2%
-
-
-
4.1
1996
15.2%
83.5%
1.3%
-
0.0%
0.0%
84.7%
15.1%
0.2%
-
-
-
4.1
1997
14.0%
85.5%
0.5%
-
0.0%
-
82.4%
17.3%
0.2%
-
-
-
4.1
1998
12.8%
86.7%
0.5%
-
0.0%
-
82.1%
17.7%
0.2%
-
-
-
4.1
1999
10.1%
89.4%
0.5%
-
0.0%
-
84.4%
15.3%
0.3%
-
-
-
4.1
2000
9.7%
89.5%
0.7%
-
0.0%
-
83.7%
15.8%
0.5%
-
-
-
4.1
2001
9.0%
90.3%
0.6%
0.1%
0.0%
-
80.7%
18.5%
0.7%
-
-
-
4.2
2002
8.2%
91.4%
0.3%
0.1%
0.1%
-
77.1%
21.6%
1.1%
-
-
-
4.2
2003
8.0%
90.8%
0.1%
0.3%
0.8%
-
69.2%
28.1%
1.7%
-
-
-
4.3
2004
6.8%
91.8%
0.3%
0.4%
0.7%
-
63.9%
31.8%
3.0%
0.2%
-
-
4.4
2005
6.2%
91.5%
0.1%
1.0%
1.3%
-
56.0%
37.3%
4.1%
0.2%
-
-
4.5
2006
6.5%
90.6%
0.0%
1.5%
1.4%
-
47.7%
39.2%
00
00
1.4%
-
-
4.6
2007
5.6%
87.1%
0.0%
2.1%
5.1%
-
40.5%
36.1%
14.4%
1.5%
0.2%
-
4.8
2008
5.2%
86.8%
0.2%
2.4%
5.5%
-
38.8%
31.9%
19.4%
1.8%
0.2%
-
4.8
2009
4.8%
85.6%
0.2%
2.1%
7.3%
-
31.2%
32.2%
24.5%
2.5%
0.1%
-
5.0
2010
3.8%
84.1%
1.2%
3.8%
7.2%
-
24.6%
23.5%
38.1%
2.7%
0.2%
-
5.2
2011
3.2%
86.5%
0.3%
2.0%
8.0%
-
14.2%
18.7%
52.3%
3.1%
1.7%
-
5.5
2012
3.6%
83.4%
1.1%
2.7%
9.2%
-
8.1%
18.2%
56.3%
2.8%
2.6%
-
5.5
2013
3.5%
80.4%
1.4%
2.9%
11.8%
-
5.4%
12.8%
60.1%
2.8%
4.1%
-
5.6
2014
2.8%
76.7%
1.6%
2.3%
16.6%
-
2.2%
7.8%
58.4%
3.3%
8.4%
1.1%
5.9
2015
2.6%
72.3%
1.4%
2.2%
21.5%
-
1.5%
4.5%
54.2%
3.1%
9.5%
3.5%
5.9
2016
2.2%
72.3%
2.6%
1.7%
21.2%
-
1.1%
3.0%
54.9%
2.9%
11.2%
4.1%
6.0
2017
2.1%
71.5%
2.6%
1.9%
21.8%
-
1.0%
2.4%
49.0%
3.4%
14.6%
5.9%
6.1
2018
1.6%
72.8%
3.2%
1.7%
20.6%
-
1.9%
2.0%
37.6%
3.7%
19.0%
13.5%
6.4
2019
1.4%
72.1%
2.4%
2.2%
21.9%
-
1.5%
1.6%
26.1%
2.6%
27.5%
16.5%
6.6
2020 (prelim)
1.5%
66.1%
4.4%
3.1%
25.0%
-
3.4%
1.3%
15.8%
2.4%
28.3%
20.7%
6.6
PDA Environmental Protection 2020 Automotive Trends Report
^*¦"1 * mAgency Section 4 Tables
11
-------
Jfc United States
^S®5^ (""PTp* Environmental Protection
*m Agency
2020 Automotive Trends Report
Section 4 Tables
Office of Transportation and Air Quality
EPA-420-R-21-003
January 2021
Table 4.3
Production Share by Drive Technology
Model Year
Car
Truck
All
Front Wheel
Drive
Rear Wheel
Drive
Four Wheel
Drive
Front Wheel
Drive
Rear Wheel
Drive
Four Wheel
Drive
Front Wheel
Drive
Rear Wheel
Drive
Four Wheel
Drive
1975
6.5%
93.5%
-
-
82.8%
17.2%
5.3%
91.4%
3.3%
1976
5.8%
94.2%
-
-
77.0%
23.0%
4.6%
90.6%
4.8%
1977
6.8%
93.2%
-
-
76.2%
23.8%
5.5%
89.8%
4.7%
1978
9.6%
90.4%
-
-
70.9%
29.1%
7.4%
86.0%
6.6%
1979
11.9%
87.8%
0.3%
-
81.9%
18.1%
9.2%
86.5%
4.3%
1980
29.7%
69.4%
0.9%
1.4%
73.6%
25.0%
25.0%
70.1%
4.9%
1981
37.0%
62.2%
0.7%
1.9%
78.0%
20.1%
31.0%
65.0%
4.0%
1982
45.6%
53.6%
0.8%
1.7%
78.1%
20.2%
37.0%
58.4%
4.6%
1983
47.1%
49.9%
3.1%
1.4%
72.5%
26.1%
37.0%
54.8%
8.1%
1984
53.5%
45.5%
1.0%
5.0%
63.5%
31.5%
42.1%
49.8%
8.2%
1985
61.1%
36.8%
2.1%
7.3%
61.4%
31.3%
47.8%
42.9%
9.3%
1986
70.7%
28.2%
1.0%
5.9%
63.4%
30.7%
52.6%
38.0%
9.3%
1987
76.4%
22.6%
1.1%
7.6%
60.2%
32.2%
57.7%
32.8%
9.6%
1988
80.9%
18.3%
0.8%
9.2%
56.7%
34.1%
60.0%
29.5%
10.5%
1989
81.6%
17.4%
1.0%
10.1%
57.1%
32.8%
60.2%
29.3%
10.5%
1990
84.0%
15.0%
1.0%
15.8%
52.4%
31.8%
63.8%
26.1%
10.1%
1991
81.1%
17.5%
1.3%
10.3%
52.3%
37.3%
59.6%
28.1%
12.3%
1992
78.4%
20.5%
1.1%
14.5%
52.1%
33.4%
58.4%
30.4%
11.2%
1993
80.6%
18.3%
1.1%
16.8%
50.6%
32.7%
59.9%
28.8%
11.3%
1994
81.3%
18.3%
0.4%
13.8%
47.0%
39.2%
55.6%
29.2%
15.2%
1995
80.1%
18.8%
1.1%
18.4%
39.3%
42.3%
57.6%
26.3%
16.2%
1996
83.7%
14.8%
1.4%
20.9%
39.8%
39.2%
60.0%
24.3%
15.7%
1997
83.8%
14.5%
1.7%
14.2%
40.6%
45.2%
56.1%
24.9%
19.0%
1998
82.9%
15.0%
2.1%
19.3%
35.5%
45.1%
56.4%
23.5%
20.1%
1999
83.2%
14.7%
2.1%
17.5%
34.4%
48.1%
55.8%
22.9%
21.3%
2000
80.4%
17.7%
2.0%
20.0%
33.8%
46.3%
55.5%
24.3%
20.2%
2001
80.3%
16.7%
3.0%
16.3%
34.8%
48.8%
53.8%
24.2%
22.0%
2002
82.9%
13.5%
3.6%
15.4%
33.1%
51.6%
52.7%
22.3%
25.0%
2003
80.9%
15.9%
3.2%
15.4%
34.1%
50.4%
50.7%
24.3%
25.0%
2004
80.2%
14.5%
5.3%
12.5%
31.0%
56.5%
47.7%
22.4%
29.8%
2005
79.2%
14.2%
6.6%
20.1%
27.7%
52.2%
53.0%
20.2%
26.8%
2006
75.9%
18.0%
6.0%
18.9%
28.0%
53.1%
51.9%
22.3%
25.8%
2007
81.0%
13.4%
5.6%
16.1%
28.4%
55.5%
54.3%
19.6%
26.1%
2008
78.8%
14.1%
7.1%
18.4%
24.8%
56.8%
54.2%
18.5%
27.3%
2009
83.5%
10.2%
6.3%
21.0%
20.5%
58.5%
62.9%
13.6%
23.5%
2010
82.5%
11.2%
6.3%
20.9%
18.0%
61.0%
59.6%
13.7%
26.7%
2011
80.1%
11.3%
8.6%
17.7%
17.3%
65.0%
53.8%
13.8%
32.4%
2012
83.8%
8.8%
7.5%
20.9%
14.8%
64.3%
61.4%
10.9%
27.7%
2013
83.0%
9.3%
7.7%
18.1%
14.5%
67.5%
59.7%
11.1%
29.1%
2014
81.3%
10.6%
8.2%
17.5%
14.2%
68.3%
55.3%
12.1%
32.6%
2015
80.4%
9.7%
9.9%
16.0%
12.6%
71.4%
52.9%
10.9%
36.1%
12
-------
Jfc United States
^S®5^ (""PTp* Environmental Protection
*m Agency
2020 Automotive Trends Report
Section 4 Tables
Office of Transportation and Air Quality
EPA-420-R-21-003
January 2021
Table 4.3
Production Share by Drive Technology
Car
Truck
All
Front Wheel
Rear Wheel
Four Wheel
Front Wheel
Rear Wheel
Four Wheel
Front Wheel
Rear Wheel
Four Wheel
Model Year
Drive
Drive
Drive
Drive
Drive
Drive
Drive
Drive
Drive
2016
79.8%
9.1%
11.0%
15.9%
12.2%
72.0%
51.2%
10.5%
38.3%
2017
79.7%
8.3%
12.0%
16.1%
11.1%
72.8%
49.6%
9.6%
40.8%
2018
76.5%
9.4%
14.1%
13.4%
10.9%
75.6%
43.7%
10.2%
46.1%
2019
75.5%
10.1%
14.4%
14.4%
10.2%
75.4%
41.6%
10.1%
48.3%
2020 (prelim)
71.2%
11.4%
17.4%
14.6%
10.2%
75.3%
38.8%
10.7%
50.5%
13
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Environmental Protection 2020 Automotive Trends Report Office of Transportation and Air Quality
United States
Environmental
Agency Section 5 Figures EPA-420-R-21-003
January 2021
Figure 5.3
Changes in "2-Cycle" Tailpipe C02 Emissions, Model Year 2012 to 2019 (g/mi)
Manufacturer
Model Year 2012
Car Truck All
Model Year 2019
Car Truck All
BMW
277
363
302
248
297
266
FCA
300
384
357
302
343
336
Ferrari
494
-
494
416
-
416
Ford
261
385
315
253
335
312
GM
283
397
331
243
345
314
Honda
237
320
266
206
278
239
Hyundai
243
312
249
241
339
243
Jaguar Land Rover
376
439
426
282
319
317
Kia
258
324
266
221
301
250
Mazda
241
324
263
230
264
248
Mercedes
316
393
343
276
332
298
Mitsubishi
262
283
267
198
251
227
Nissan
258
382
295
217
323
258
Subaru
257
296
282
238
243
242
Tesla
0
-
0
0
0
0
Toyota
221
354
273
211
313
269
VW
274
330
281
227
302
267
Volvo
297
343
311
255
283
277
All Manufacturers
259
369
302
228
318
282
14
-------
Environmental Protection 2020 Automotive Trends Report Office of Transportation and Air Quality
United States
Environmental
Agency Section 5 Figures EPA-420-R-21-003
January 2021
Figure 5.4
Model Year 2019 Production of EVs, PHEVs, and FCVs
Production of
Production of
Production of
Manufacturer
EV
PHEV
FCV
Aston Martin
-
-
-
BMW
1,557
15,571
-
FCA
434
3,484
-
Ferrari
-
-
-
Ford
-
9,846
-
GM
21,361
5,516
-
Honda
522
7,221
337
Hyundai
5,629
5,781
224
Jaguar Land Rover
3,004
34
-
Kia
4,267
5,573
-
Mazda
-
-
-
McLaren
-
-
-
Mercedes
394
5,712
-
Mitsubishi
-
2,185
-
Nissan
16,035
-
-
Subaru
-
2,547
-
Tesla
125,538
-
-
Toyota
-
10,628
1,711
VW
15,968
2,405
-
Volvo
-
4,049
-
All Manufacturers
194,709
80,552
2,272
15
-------
SERA
United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
2020 Automotive Trends Report
Section 5 Figures
Figure 5.5
Model Year 2019 Advanced
Technology Credits by
Manufacturer
Office of Transportation and Air Quality
EPA-420-R-21-003
January 2021
Manufacturer
Total (g/mi)
Aston Martin
-
BMW
4.2
FCA
0.3
Ferrari
-
Ford
0.6
GM
2.0
Honda
0.5
Hyundai
3.1
Jaguar Land Rover
8.9
Kia
2.4
Mazda
-
McLaren
-
Mercedes
2.3
Mitsubishi
0.6
Nissan
2.4
Subaru
0.3
Tesla
214.0
Toyota
0.5
VW
5.9
Volvo
3.1
All Manufacturers
3.0
16
-------
** rnA United States
Environmental Protection
*m Agency
2020 Automotive Trends Report
Section 5 Figures
Office of Transportation and Air Quality
EPA-420-R-21-003
January 2021
Figure 5.6
Production of FFVs, Model Year
2012-2019
Model Year
Car Truck
2012
815,440 1,352,258
2013
791,660 1,701,209
2014
709,192 2,091,685
2015
538,648 1,300,077
2016
429,195 910,075
2017
307,116 859,376
2018
164,578 772,181
2019
71,622 644,494
17
-------
SERA
United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
2020 Automotive Trends Report
Section 5 Figures
Figure 5.7
FFV Credits by
Model Year (g/mi)
Office of Transportation and Air Quality
EPA-420-R-21-003
January 2021
Model Year
GHG Credits
2012
8.1
2013
7.8
2014
8.9
2015
6.4
2016
-
2017
-
2018
-
2019
-
United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
18
-------
Environmental Protection 2020 Automotive Trends Report Office of Transportation and Air Quality
United States
Environmental
Agency Section 5 Figures EPA-420-R-21-003
January 2021
Figure 5.8
HFO-1234yf Adoption by Manufacturer (Production Volume)
Manufacturer
Model Year
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
BMW
-
-
-
-
334,633
367,072
358,787
FCA
-
540,098
1,683,956
1,504,046
1,633,139
1,750,652
1,906,228
Ferrari
-
-
-
-
1,886
2,559
2,659
Ford
-
-
-
-
1,326,663
1,530,469
1,512,981
GM
41,913
30,652
16,298
32,775
1,632,981
2,433,265
2,242,408
Honda
471
599 -
541,393
897,751
1,368,127
1,698,515
Hyundai
-
-
-
-
14,663
211,969
481,403
Jaguar Land Rover
-
56,604
62,316
114,580
122,586
110,615
105,504
Kia
-
-
-
-
264,353
336,262
580,596
Mazda
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Mercedes
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Mitsubishi
-
-
-
-
-
58,968
55,880
Nissan
-
-
-
-
-
94,474
338,942
Subaru
-
-
-
-
292,788
228,363
488,650
Tesla
-
-
-
-
-
-
96,459
Toyota
-
-
-
-
277,645
819,578
1,345,131
VW
-
-
-
-
50,884
588,122
714,364
Volvo
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
All Manufacturers
42,384
627,953
1,762,570
2,192,794
6,849,972
9,900,495
11,928,507
19
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** rnA United States
Environmental Protection
*m Agency
2020 Automotive Trends Report
Section 5 Figures
Office of Transportation and Air Quality
EPA-420-R-21-003
January 2021
Figure 5.9
Fleetwide A/C Credits by Credit Type
Model Year
A/C Leakage
Credits (g/mi)
A/C Efficiency
Credits (g/mi)
2012
4.0
2.1
2013
4.2
2.8
2014
5.2
3.3
2015
5.9
3.6
2016
6.6
3.7
2017
9.2
4.6
2018
11.3
5.0
2019
12.7
5.2
20
-------
** rnA United States
Environmental Protection
*m Agency
2020 Automotive Trends Report
Section 5 Figures
Office of Transportation and Air Quality
EPA-420-R-21-003
January 2021
Figure 5.10
Total A/C Credits by Manufacturer for
Model Year 2019
Manufacturer
A/C Leakage
Credits (g/mi)
A/C Efficiency
Credits (g/mi)
Aston Martin
4.5
-
BMW
14.9
5.7
FCA
15.7
6.1
Ferrari
13.8
2.9
Ford
14.7
5.8
GM
15.2
5.8
Honda
15.0
4.9
Hyundai
10.6
3.6
Jaguar Land Rover
17.0
7.0
Kia
13.8
4.3
Mazda
3.4
-
McLaren
-
-
Mercedes
6.5
5.8
Mitsubishi
10.3
2.4
Nissan
7.5
3.8
Subaru
9.6
5.1
Tesla
11.9
5.1
Toyota
9.7
5.4
VW
14.0
5.9
Volvo
6.7
5.8
21
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Environmental Protection 2020 Automotive Trends Report Office of Transportation and Air Quality
United States
Environmental.
Agency Section 5 Figures EPA-420-R-21-003
January 2021
Figure 5.11
Off-Cycle Menu Technology Adoption by Manufacturer, Model Year 2019
Manufacturer
Active
Aerodynamic
Improvements
Active Cabin
Ventilation
Active Seat
Ventilation
Glass Or
Glazing
Passive
Cabin
Ventilation
Solar
Reflective
Coating
Active
Engine
Warmup
Active
Transmission
Warmup
Engine Idle
Start Stop
High
Efficiency
Lighting
Aston Martin
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BMW
65%
100%
13%
-
-
-
29%
-
69%
100%
FCA
51%
-
15%
99%
99%
4%
92%
47%
49%
70%
Ferrari
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
100%
Ford
83%
-
25%
100%
100%
8%
41%
73%
77%
65%
GM
65%
-
20%
100%
100%
22%
48%
2%
57%
91%
Honda
35%
-
7%
100%
100%
4%
6%
94%
18%
100%
Hyundai
7%
84%
11%
85%
-
17%
5%
73%
4%
49%
Jaguar Land Rover
82%
-
60%
100%
100%
-
-
93%
97%
100%
Kia
6%
67%
8%
100%
-
22%
7%
69%
8%
70%
Mazda
-
-
22%
74%
-
-
-
96%
-
61%
McLaren
42%
-
-
-
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
Mercedes
-
-
21%
89%
-
-
-
-
-
99%
Mitsubishi
-
-
-
73%
-
5%
-
-
2%
85%
Nissan
37%
-
5%
65%
35%
16%
37%
54%
0%
77%
Subaru
51%
-
3%
93%
-
-
-
90%
23%
79%
Tesla
100%
100%
-
100%
-
-
-
-
-
100%
Toyota
10%
-
25%
74%
99%
19%
38%
60%
22%
94%
VW
37%
-
16%
63%
-
2%
96%
10%
84%
73%
Volvo
-
-
16%
100%
100%
29%
100%
-
4%
100%
All Manufacturers
42%
9%
16%
87%
70%
11%
40%
51%
37%
82%
22
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Environmental Protection 2020 Automotive Trends Report Office of Transportation and Air Quality
United States
Environmental
Agency Section 5 Figures EPA-420-R-21-003
January 2021
Figure 5.12
Total Off-Cycle Credits by Manufacturer for Model
Year 2019
Manufacturer
Menu Credits
(g/mi)
Non-Menu
Credits (g/mi)
Aston Martin
-
-
BMW
7.4
-
FCA
10.0
0.5
Ferrari
0.7
-
Ford
10.0
0.8
GM
8.4
1.3
Honda
6.4
0.3
Hyundai
2.3
0.5
Jaguar Land Rover
10.0
-
Kia
3.1
0.4
Mazda
3.5
-
McLaren
4.3
-
Mercedes
1.9
-
Mitsubishi
1.1
-
Nissan
3.5
0.3
Subaru
5.1
0.6
Tesla
4.7
-
Toyota
6.4
0.6
Volvo
7.6
-
VW
6.8
-
23
-------
** rnA United States
Environmental Protection
*m Agency
2020 Automotive Trends Report
Section 5 Figures
Office of Transportation and Air Quality
EPA-420-R-21-003
January 2021
Figure 5.13
Performance and Standards by Manufacturer,
2019 Model Year
Manufacturer
Performance
(g/mi)
Standard
(g/mi)
Aston Martin
342
380
BMW
234
229
FCA
303
275
Ferrari
399
395
Ford
280
272
GM
282
265
Honda
212
227
Hyundai
223
200
Jaguar Land Rover
274
274
Kia
226
218
Mazda
242
223
McLaren
389
368
Mercedes
282
231
Mitsubishi
212
210
Nissan
241
225
Subaru
222
234
Tesla
-236
214
Toyota
247
239
Volvo
254
264
VW
235
233
24
-------
** rnA United States
Environmental Protection
*m Agency
2020 Automotive Trends Report
Section 5 Figures
Office of Transportation and Air Quality
EPA-420-R-21-003
January 2021
Figure 5.14
Early Credits by Manufacturer
MY 2010
MY 2011
MY 2009 Credits
Credits
Credits
Manufacturer
(Tg of C02)
(Tg of C02)
(Tg of C02)
Aston Martin
0.0
0.0
0.0
BMW
0.5
0.4
0.4
FCA
6.3
5.4
-0.9
Ferrari
-
-
-
Ford
8.4
7.4
0.3
GM
13.0
11.6
1.2
Honda
14.1
14.2
7.5
Hyundai
4.6
5.4
4.0
Jaguar Land Rover
-
-
-
Kia
3.1
2.7
4.7
Mazda
1.4
3.2
0.9
McLaren
-
-
-
Mercedes
0.1
0.1
0.2
Mitsubishi
0.6
0.5
0.3
Nissan
10.5
5.8
1.9
Subaru
1.6
2.2
1.9
Suzuki
0.4
0.3
0.1
Tesla
-
0.0
0.0
Toyota
31.3
34.5
14.7
VW
2.2
2.9
1.5
Volvo
0.2
0.4
0.2
25
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Environmental Protection 2020 Automotive Trends Report Office of Transportation and Air Quality
United States
Environmental
Agency Section 5 Figures EPA-420-R-21-003
January 2021
Figure 5.15
Total Credits Transactions Through Model Year 2019
Manufacturer
Expires 2021
Expires 2022
Expires 2023
Expires 2024
Aston Martin
0.0
-
-
-
BMW
2.0
3.5
-
-
Coda
0.0
-
-
-
FCA
54.4
4.7
11.9
11.1
Ferrari
0.3
-
-
-
GM
5.8
-
4.9
-
Honda
-36.5
-3.5
-
-
Jaguar Land Rover
2.9
-
-
-
Karma Automotive
0.0
-
-
-
Lotus
0.0
-
-
-
McLaren
0.0
0.0
-
-
Mercedes
12.2
-
-
-
Mitsubishi
-0.2
-
-
-
Nissan
-3.5
-
-
-
Suzuki
-0.4
-
-
-
Tesla
-6.2
-4.7
-17.8
-11.1
Toyota
-33.8
-
-
-
VW
3.0
-
1.0
-
26
-------
SERA
United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
2020 Automotive Trends Report
Section 5 Figures
Figure 5.16
Manufacturer Credit Balance
After Model Year 2019
Office of Transportation and Air Quality
EPA-420-R-21-003
January 2021
Please see Tab T.5.19 for this data
27
-------
Environmental Protection 2020 Automotive Trends Report Office of Transportation and Air Quality
United States
Environmental
Agency Section 5 Figures EPA-420-R-21-003
January 2021
Figure 5.17
Industry Performance and Standards, Credit Generation
and Use
Model Year
Performance
(g/mi)
Standard
(g/mi)
2012
287
299
2013
278
292
2014
273
287
2015
267
274
2016
271
263
2017
262
258
2018
253
252
2019
253
246
Model Year
Credits (Mg)
Credits (Tg)
Early Credits (2009-2011)
158,298,783
158
2012
32,834,749
33
2013
41,712,952
42
2014
43,264,078
43
2015
25,133,541
25
2016
-27,615,344
-28
2017
-16,422,453
-16
2018
-4,168,218
-4
2019
-23,821,639
-24
carry to 2020
229,216,449
229
28
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S CPA Environmental Protection 2020 Automotive Trends Report Office of Transportation and Air Quality
^#1—1 f^Agency Section 5 Tables EPA-420-R-21-003
January 2021
Table 5.1
Manufacturer Footprint and Standards for Model Year 2019
Manufacturer
Footprint (ft2)
Standards (g/mi)
Car
Truck
All
Car
Truck
All
Aston Martin
49.3
-
49.3
380
-
380
BMW
47.7
52.3
49.3
203
272
229
FCA
49.3
56.3
54.9
210
288
275
Ferrari
47.9
-
47.9
395
-
395
Ford
46.9
59.1
55.3
201
300
272
GM
45.9
58.3
54.2
196
295
265
Honda
45.9
50.3
47.8
196
263
227
Hyundai
46.6
49.2
46.6
199
258
200
Jaguar Land Rover
50.0
51.6
51.5
224
277
274
Kia
46.0
49.1
47.0
196
258
218
Mazda
44.9
47.7
46.3
193
251
223
McLaren
47.2
-
47.2
368
-
368
Mercedes
48.6
51.0
49.5
207
266
231
Mitsubishi
41.2
44.2
42.7
181
235
210
Nissan
46.0
52.1
48.1
196
272
225
Subaru
44.9
46.1
45.9
191
243
234
Tesla
49.8
54.8
49.9
212
284
214
Toyota
46.5
52.0
49.5
198
270
239
Volkswagen
45.3
51.2
48.2
193
267
233
Volvo
49.9
51.1
50.8
223
275
264
All Manufacturers
46.5
54.2
50.8
198
279
246
29
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** rnA United States
Environmental Protection
*m Agency
2020 Automotive Trends Report
Section 5 Tables
Office of Transportation and Air Quality
EPA-420-R-21-003
January 2021
Table 5.2
Production Multipliers by Model Year
Electric Vehicles and Fuel
Dedicated and Dual-Fuel
Model Year
Cell Vehicles
Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles
Natural Gas Vehicles
2017
2.0
1.6
1.6
2018
2.0
1.6
1.6
2019
2.0
1.6
1.6
2020
1.75
1.45
1.45
2021
1.5
1.3
1.3
2022-2026
1.0
1.0
2.0
30
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S CPA Environmental Protection 2020 Automotive Trends Report Office of Transportation and Air Quality
^#1—1 f^Agency Section 5 Tables EPA-420-R-21-003
January 2021
Table 5.3
Model Year 2019 Off-Cycle Technology Credits from the Menu, by Manufacturer and Technology (g/mi)
Manufacturer
Active Aero-
dynamics
Active Engine
Warmup
Active Trans
Warmup
Thermal
Controls
Engine Start-
Stop
High Efficiency
Lighting
Total Menu
Credits
Aston Martin
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BMW
1.2
0.8
-
2.5
2.0
0.9
7.4
FCA
0.4
2.7
1.5
3.8
2.1
0.2
10.0
Ferrari
-
-
-
-
-
0.7
0.7
Ford
1.1
1.1
2.1
3.3
3.1
0.2
10.0
GM
0.7
1.2
0.0
3.7
2.2
0.5
8.4
Honda
0.1
0.1
2.2
2.9
0.7
0.4
6.4
Hyundai
0.1
0.1
1.1
0.8
0.1
0.1
2.3
Jaguar Land Rover
0.6
-
2.9
3.8
4.1
0.4
10.0
Kia
0.0
0.1
1.6
1.0
0.2
0.1
3.1
Mazda
-
-
2.3
1.0
-
0.1
3.5
McLaren
0.4
-
1.5
-
1.5
0.9
4.3
Mercedes
-
-
-
1.1
-
0.9
1.9
Mitsubishi
-
-
-
0.8
0.0
0.3
1.1
Nissan
0.2
0.7
1.1
1.1
0.0
0.3
3.5
Subaru
0.2
-
2.7
1.1
0.7
0.4
5.1
Tesla
1.1
-
-
3.0
-
0.7
4.7
Toyota
0.1
0.2
1.4
3.4
0.9
0.4
6.4
VW
0.2
2.3
0.3
0.7
2.8
0.5
6.8
Volvo
-
2.8
-
3.6
0.2
1
7.6
All Manufacturers
0.4
0.9
1.3
2.7
1.4
0.4
6.9
31
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S CPA Environmental Protection 2020 Automotive Trends Report Office of Transportation and Air Quality
^#1—1 f^Agency Section 5 Tables EPA-420-R-21-003
January 2021
Table 5.4
Model Year 2019 Off-Cycle Technology Credits from an Alternative Methodology, by
Manufacturer and Technology (g/mi)
Manufacturer
Brushless
Motors
Improved A/C High-Efficiency Active Climate
Systems Alternator Control Seats
Total
Alternative
Methodology
Credits
FCA
-
-
0.5
-
0.5
Ford
-
0.2
0.6
-
0.8
GM
-
0.6
0.7
0.0
1.3
Honda
-
-
0.3
-
0.3
Hyundai
-
-
0.5
-
0.5
Kia
-
-
0.4
-
0.4
Nissan
-
0.1
0.2
-
0.3
Subaru
0.0
-
0.6
-
0.6
Toyota
0.1
0.1
0.3
-
0.6
All Manufacturers
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.0
0.6
32
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S CPA Environmental Protection 2020 Automotive Trends Report Office of Transportation and Air Quality
^#1—1 f^Agency Section 5 Tables EPA-420-R-21-003
January 2021
Table 5.5
Manufacturer Performance in Model Year 2019, All (g/mi)
Manufacturer
2-Cycle
Tailpipe
Performance Credits and Adjustments
Performance
Value
Adv. Tech
FFV
A/C
Off-Cycle
CH4 & N20
Aston Martin
347
-
-
4.5
-
-
342
BMW
266
4.2
-
20.6
7.4
-
234
FCA
336
0.3
-
21.8
10.5
-0.0
303
Ferrari
416
-
-
16.7
0.7
-
399
Ford
312
0.6
-
20.6
10.8
-0.3
280
GM
314
2.0
-
21.0
9.7
-0.1
282
Honda
239
0.5
-
19.9
6.6
-
212
Hyundai
243
3.1
-
14.2
2.7
-0.1
223
Jaguar Land Rover
317
8.9
-
24.0
10.0
-
274
Kia
250
2.4
-
18.1
3.4
-0.1
226
Mazda
248
-
-
3.4
3.5
-1.0
242
McLaren
393
-
-
-
4.3
-
389
Mercedes
298
2.3
-
12.3
1.9
-
282
Mitsubishi
227
0.6
-
12.6
1.1
-
212
Nissan
258
2.4
-
11.3
3.8
0.0
241
Subaru
242
0.3
-
14.7
5.7
-
222
Tesla
0
214.0
-
17.0
4.7
-
-236
Toyota
269
0.5
-
15.1
6.9
-0.1
247
VW
267
5.9
-
20.0
6.8
-0.0
235
Volvo
277
3.1
-
12.5
7.6
-
254
All Manufacturers
282
3.0
-
18.0
7.5
-0.1
253
33
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S CPA Environmental Protection 2020 Automotive Trends Report Office of Transportation and Air Quality
^#1—1 f^Agency Section 5 Tables EPA-420-R-21-003
January 2021
Table 5.6
Industry Performance by Model Year, All (g/mi)
Model Year
2-Cyde
Tailpipe
Performance Credits and Adjustments
Performance
Value
Adv. Tech
FFV
A/C
Off-Cycle
CH4 & N20
2012
302
-
8.1
6.1
1.0
-0.2
287
2013
294
-
7.8
6.9
1.1
-0.3
278
2014
294
-
8.9
8.5
3.3
-0.2
273
2015
286
-
6.4
9.4
3.4
-0.2
267
2016
285
-
-
10.3
3.6
-0.1
271
2017
284
2.2
-
13.8
5.4
-0.2
262
2018
280
3.7
-
16.3
6.8
-0.1
253
2019
282
3.0
-
18.0
7.5
-0.1
253
34
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S CPA Environmental Protection 2020 Automotive Trends Report Office of Transportation and Air Quality
^#1—1 f^Agency Section 5 Tables EPA-420-R-21-003
January 2021
Table 5.7
Manufacturer Performance in Model Year 2019, Car (g/mi)
Manufacturer
2-Cyde
Tailpipe
Performance Credits and Adjustments
Performance
Value
Adv. Tech
FFV
A/C
Off-Cycle
CH4& N20
Aston Martin
347
-
-
4.5
-
-
342
BMW
248
6.8
-
18.6
5.2
-
218
FCA
302
0.3
-
18.4
5.6
-0.0
278
Ferrari
416
-
-
16.7
0.7
-
399
Ford
253
2.0
-
16.5
6.3
-0.2
228
GM
243
6.8
-
15.8
6.7
-0.0
214
Honda
206
0.9
-
16.9
4.3
-
184
Hyundai
241
3.1
-
14.3
2.7
-0.1
221
Jaguar Land Rover
282
-
-
18.7
6.0
-
257
Kia
221
3.7
-
16.6
2.5
-0.2
198
Mazda
230
-
-
1.8
2.0
-0.2
226
McLaren
393
-
-
-
4.3
-
389
Mercedes
276
0.6
-
11.1
1.6
-
263
Mitsubishi
198
1.2
-
5.9
0.6
-
190
Nissan
217
3.9
-
11.6
2.7
-0.0
199
Subaru
238
-
-
5.7
2.2
-
230
Tesla
0
211.9
-
16.9
4.6
-
-233
Toyota
211
1.2
-
14.1
5.1
-0.1
191
VW
227
3.3
-
17.9
3.7
-0.0
202
Volvo
255
2.1
-
9.7
4.9
-
238
All Manufacturers
228
6.3
-
14.8
4.3
-0.1
203
35
-------
S CPA Environmental Protection 2020 Automotive Trends Report Office of Transportation and Air Quality
^#1—1 f^Agency Section 5 Tables EPA-420-R-21-003
January 2021
Table 5.8
Industry Performance by Model Year, Car (g/mi)
2-Cycle
Performance Credits and Adjustments
Performance
Model Year
Tailpipe
Adv. Tech
FFV
A/C
Off-Cycle
CH4&N20
Value
2012
259
-
4.0
5.4
0.6
-0.1
249
2013
251
-
4.0
6.3
0.7
-0.3
240
2014
250
-
4.6
7.5
2.2
-0.3
236
2015
243
-
3.1
8.1
2.3
-0.1
230
2016
240
-
-
00
CO
2.3
-0.1
229
2017
235
4.3
-
10.2
3.4
-0.0
217
2018
228
7.6
-
13.0
4.0
-0.0
204
2019
228
6.3
-
14.8
4.3
-0.1
203
36
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S CPA Environmental Protection 2020 Automotive Trends Report Office of Transportation and Air Quality
^#1—1 f^Agency Section 5 Tables EPA-420-R-21-003
January 2021
Table 5.9
Manufacturer Performance in Model Year 2019, Truck (g/mi)
2-Cyde
Performance Credits and Adjustments
Performance
Manufacturer
Tailpipe
Adv. Tech
FFV
A/C
Off-Cycle
CH4& N20
Value
Aston Martin
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BMW
297
-
-
24.1
11.1
-
262
FCA
343
0.3
-
22.5
11.5
-0.1
309
Ferrari
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Ford
335
-
-
22.2
12.6
-0.4
301
GM
345
-
-
23.3
11.0
-0.1
311
Honda
278
-
-
23.5
9.4
-
245
Hyundai
339
-
-
6.9
5.8
-
326
Jaguar Land Rover
319
9.5
-
24.4
10.3
-
275
Kia
301
-
-
20.6
5.1
-
275
Mazda
264
-
-
4.8
4.9
-1.9
256
McLaren
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Mercedes
332
4.9
-
14.2
2.4
-
310
Mitsubishi
251
-
-
18.3
1.4
-
231
Nissan
323
-
-
10.9
5.6
-
307
Subaru
243
0.4
-
16.5
6.4
-
220
Tesla
0
284.2
-
20.5
8.3
-
-313
Toyota
313
-
-
15.9
8.4
-0.1
289
VW
302
8.2
-
21.7
9.5
-0.0
263
Volvo
283
3.3
-
13.3
8.3
-
258
All Manufacturers
318
0.7
-
20.2
9.7
-0.1
288
37
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^#1—1 f^Agency Section 5 Tables EPA-420-R-21-003
January 2021
Table 5.10
Industry Performance by Model Year, Truck (g/mi)
2-Cyde
Performance Credits and Adjustments
Performance
Model Year
Tailpipe
Adv. Tech
FFV
A/C
Off-Cycle
CH4& N20
Value
2012
369
-
14.5
7.3
1.6
-0.3
346
2013
360
-
13.8
7.9
1.7
-0.3
337
2014
349
-
14.3
9.7
4.6
-0.1
321
2015
336
-
10.3
11.0
4.6
-0.2
310
2016
332
-
-
11.8
5.1
-0.2
316
2017
330
0.2
-
17.3
7.4
-0.3
305
2018
320
0.6
-
19.0
9.0
-0.2
292
2019
318
0.7
-
20.2
9.7
-0.1
288
38
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S CPA Environmental Protection 2020 Automotive Trends Report Office of Transportation and Air Quality
^#1—1 f^Agency Section 5 Tables EPA-420-R-21-003
January 2021
Table 5.11
Credits Earned by Manufacturers in Model Year 2019, All
Manufacturer
Performance
Value (g/mi)
Standard
(g/mi)
Standard
Exceedance
(g/mi)
Production
Credits
Generated (Mg)
Aston Martin
342
380
-38
2,069
15,170
BMW
234
229
5
360,345
-392,573
FCA
303
275
28
2,109,158
-13,345,869
Ferrari
399
395
4
2,659
-1,853
Ford
280
272
8
1,816,423
-3,221,756
GM
282
265
17
2,554,431
-9,013,157
Honda
212
227
-15
1,730,544
5,307,829
Hyundai
223
200
23
654,883
-2,933,640
Jaguar Land Rover
274
274
0
105,504
306
Kia
226
218
8
580,746
-923,819
Mazda
242
223
19
267,020
-1,053,413
McLaren
389
368
21
1,382
-5,599
Mercedes
282
231
51
312,501
-3,304,783
Mitsubishi
212
210
2
123,924
-57,646
Nissan
241
225
16
1,366,419
-4,256,602
Subaru
222
234
-12
775,379
2,157,106
Tesla
-236
214
-450
125,538
11,070,481
Toyota
247
239
8
2,371,840
-3,799,467
VW
235
233
2
770,284
-302,728
Volvo
254
264
-10
108,275
240,374
All Manufacturers
253
246
7
16,139,324
-23,821,639
39
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S CPA Environmental Protection 2020 Automotive Trends Report Office of Transportation and Air Quality
^#1—1 f^Agency Section 5 Tables EPA-420-R-21-003
January 2021
Table 5.12
Total Credits Earned in Model Years 2009-2019, All
Model Year
Performance
Value (g/mi)
Standard
(g/mi)
Standard
Exceedance
(g/mi)
Production
Generated
Credits (Mg)
Credit
Expiration
2009
-
-
-
-
98,522,058
2014
2010
-
-
-
-
96,891,340
2021
2011
-
-
-
-
38,770,273
2021
2012
287
299
-12
13,446,550
33,033,097
2021
2013
278
292
-14
15,200,118
42,234,774
2021
2014
273
287
-13
15,514,338
43,292,494
2021
2015
267
274
-7
16,740,264
25,218,704
2021
2016
271
263
8
16,279,911
-27,615,344
2021
2017
262
258
5
17,015,504
-16,203,034
2022
2018
253
252
1
16,259,244
-4,168,218
2023
2019
253
246
7
16,139,324
-23,821,639
2024
40
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S CPA Environmental Protection 2020 Automotive Trends Report Office of Transportation and Air Quality
^#1—1 f^Agency Section 5 Tables EPA-420-R-21-003
January 2021
Table 5.13
Credits Earned by Manufacturers in Model Year 2019, Car
Manufacturer
Performance
Value (g/mi)
Standard
(g/mi)
Standard
Exceedance
(g/mi)
Production
Credits
Generated
(Mg)
Aston Martin
342
380
-38
2,069
15,170
BMW
218
203
15
238,033
-674,229
FCA
278
210
68
405,487
-5,361,078
Ferrari
399
395
4
2,659
-1,853
Ford
228
201
27
568,345
-3,041,035
GM
214
196
18
847,067
-2,927,214
Honda
184
196
-12
992,811
2,328,418
Hyundai
221
199
22
643,662
-2,760,630
Jaguar Land Rover
257
224
33
7,147
-46,484
Kia
198
196
2
389,497
-175,317
Mazda
226
193
33
139,005
-903,813
McLaren
389
368
21
1,382
-5,599
Mercedes
263
207
56
198,525
-2,160,289
Mitsubishi
190
181
9
61,266
-110,428
Nissan
199
196
3
883,582
-489,564
Subaru
230
191
39
148,610
-1,135,982
Tesla
-233
212
-445
122,326
10,637,339
Toyota
191
198
-7
1,108,873
1,573,002
VW
202
193
9
384,640
-682,532
Volvo
238
223
15
25,561
-76,277
All Manufacturers
203
198
4
7,170,547
-5,998,395
41
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S CPA Environmental Protection 2020 Automotive Trends Report Office of Transportation and Air Quality
^#1—1 f^Agency Section 5 Tables EPA-420-R-21-003
January 2021
Table 5.14
Total Credits Earned in Model Years 2009-2019, Car
Model Year
Performance
Value (g/mi)
Standard
(g/mi)
Standard
Exceedance
(g/mi)
Production
Generated
Credits (Mg)
Credit
Expiration
2009
-
-
-
-
58,018,752
2014
2010
-
-
-
-
50,856,700
2021
2011
-
-
-
-
8,831,637
2021
2012
249
267
-18
8,657,393
30,484,967
2021
2013
240
261
-21
9,747,624
39,249,608
2021
2014
236
253
-17
9,209,352
30,407,996
2021
2015
230
241
-12
9,602,215
22,043,043
2021
2016
229
231
-2
9,012,178
3,411,251
2021
2017
217
219
-2
8,954,269
2,705,030
2022
2018
204
209
-6
7,800,108
8,396,572
2023
2019
203
198
4
7,170,547
-5,998,395
2024
42
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S CPA Environmental Protection 2020 Automotive Trends Report Office of Transportation and Air Quality
^#1—1 f^Agency Section 5 Tables EPA-420-R-21-003
January 2021
Table 5.15
Credits Earned by Manufacturers in Model Year 2019, Truck
Manufacturer
Performance
Value (g/mi)
Standard
(g/mi)
Standard
Exceedance
(g/mi)
Production
Credits
Generated (Mg)
Aston Martin
-
-
-
-
-
BMW
262
272
-10
122,312
281,656
FCA
309
288
21
1,703,671
-7,984,791
Ferrari
-
-
-
-
-
Ford
301
300
1
1,248,078
-180,721
GM
311
295
16
1,707,364
-6,085,943
Honda
245
263
-18
737,733
2,979,411
Hyundai
326
258
68
11,221
-173,010
Jaguar Land Rover
275
277
-2
98,357
46,790
Kia
275
258
17
191,249
-748,502
Mazda
256
251
5
128,015
-149,600
McLaren
-
-
-
-
-
Mercedes
310
266
44
113,976
-1,144,494
Mitsubishi
231
235
-4
62,658
52,782
Nissan
307
272
35
482,837
-3,767,038
Subaru
220
243
-23
626,769
3,293,088
Tesla
-313
284
-597
3,212
433,142
Toyota
289
270
19
1,262,967
-5,372,469
VW
263
267
-4
385,644
379,804
Volvo
258
275
-17
82,714
316,651
All Manufacturers
288
279
9
8,968,777
-17,823,244
43
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S CPA Environmental Protection 2020 Automotive Trends Report Office of Transportation and Air Quality
^#1—1 f^Agency Section 5 Tables EPA-420-R-21-003
January 2021
Table 5.16
Total Credits Earned in Model Years 2009-2019, Truck
Model Year
Performance
Value (g/mi)
Standard
(g/mi)
Standard
Exceedance
(g/mi)
Production
Generated
Credits (Mg)
Credit
Expiration
2009
-
-
-
-
40,503,306
2014
2010
-
-
-
-
46,034,640
2021
2011
-
-
-
-
29,938,636
2021
2012
346
349
-2
4,789,157
2,548,130
2021
2013
337
339
-3
5,452,494
2,985,166
2021
2014
321
330
-9
6,304,986
12,884,498
2021
2015
310
312
-2
7,138,049
3,175,661
2021
2016
316
297
19
7,267,733
-31,026,595
2021
2017
305
295
10
8,061,235
-18,908,064
2022
2018
292
286
7
8,459,136
-12,564,790
2023
2019
288
279
9
8,968,777
-17,823,244
2024
44
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Office of Transportation and Air Quality
EPA-420-R-21-003
January 2021
Table 5.18
Final Credit Balance by Manufacturer for Model Year 2019 (Mg)
Manufacturer
Early Credits
Earned
2009-2011
Net Credits
Earned
2012-2018
Net Credits
Earned 2019
Credits Expired
Credits Forfeited
Credits Purchased
or Sold
Final 2019 Credit
Balance
Aston Martin
3,332
-37,504
15,170
-
-
35,844
16,842
BMW
1,251,522
-210,997
-392,573
-134,791
-
5,500,000
6,013,161
BYD Motors
-
5,568
-
-
-
-
5,568
Coda
-
7,251
-
-
-
-7,251
-
FCA
10,827,083
-32,540,672
-13,345,869
-
-
82,128,881
47,069,423
Ferrari
-
-151,153
-1,853
-
-
265,000
111,994
Ford
16,116,453
2,255,243
-3,221,756
-5,882,011
-
-
9,267,929
GM
25,788,547
-990,066
-9,013,157
-6,998,699
-
10,677,251
19,463,876
Honda
35,842,334
54,543,241
5,307,829
-14,133,353
-
-40,015,245
41,544,806
Hyundai
14,007,495
5,871,049
-2,933,640
-4,482,649
-169,775
-
12,292,480
Jaguar Land Rover
-
-2,874,564
306
-
-
2,922,736
48,478
Karma Automotive
-
58,852
-
-
-
-2,841
56,011
Kia
10,444,192
-4,545,523
-923,819
-2,362,882
-123,956
-
2,488,012
Lotus
-
-3,147
-
-
-
2,841
-306
Mazda
5,482,642
5,905,364
-1,053,413
-1,390,883
-
-
8,943,710
McLaren
-
-11,370
-5,599
-
-
9,079
-7,890
Mercedes
378,272
-8,968,525
-3,304,783
-
-28,416
12,227,713
304,261
Mitsubishi
1,449,336
1,430,836
-57,646
-583,146
-
-200,000
2,039,380
Nissan
18,131,200
17,312,306
-4,256,602
-8,190,124
-
-3,545,570
19,451,210
Porsche
-
426,439
-
-
-426,439
-
-
Subaru
5,755,171
13,280,987
2,157,106
-491,789
-
-
20,701,475
Suzuki
876,650
-183,097
-
-265,311
-
-428,242
-
Tesla
49,772
28,739,673
11,070,481
-
-
-39,807,765
52,161
Toyota
80,435,498
22,093,847
-3,799,467
-29,526,679
-
-33,762,431
35,440,768
VW
6,613,985
-6,019,574
-302,728
-1,442,571
-219,419
4,000,000
2,629,693
Volvo
730,187
398,009
240,374
-
-85,163
-
1,283,407
All Manufacturers
234,183,671
95,792,473
-23,821,639
-75,884,888
-1,053,168
-
229,216,449
G pp/v En^ronmema! Protection 2020 Automotive Trends Report
Agency Section 5 Tables
45
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Office of Transportation and Air Quality
EPA-420-R-21-003
January 2021
Table 5.19
Distribution of Credits by Expiration Date (Mg)
Manufacturer
Final 2019 Credit
Balance
Credits Expiring in
2021
Credits Expiring in Credits Expiring in
2022 2023
Credits Expiring in
2024
Model Year 2019
Deficits
Model Year 2018
Deficits
Model Year 2017 Non-Compliant
Deficits Deficits
Aston Martin
16,842
-
-
1,672
15,170
-
-
-
BMW
6,013,161
1,939,942
3,652,752
138,811
281,656
-
-
-
BYD Motors
5,568
4,871
529
168
-
-
-
-
Coda
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
FCA
47,069,423
19,348,175
4,731,544
11,915,822
11,073,882
-
-
-
Ferrari
111,994
99,622
8,180
4,192
-
-
-
-
Ford
9,267,929
9,267,929
-
-
-
-
-
-
GM
19,463,876
11,801,350
2,127,946
5,534,580
-
-
-
-
Honda
41,544,806
22,044,774
4,917,091
9,275,112
5,307,829
-
-
-
Hyundai
12,292,480
12,292,480
-
-
-
-
-
-
Jaguar Land Rover
48,478
1,688
-
-
46,790
-
-
-
Karma Automotive
56,011
56,011
-
-
-
-
-
-
Kia
2,488,012
2,488,012
-
-
-
-
-
-
Lotus
-306
-
-
-
-
-
-114
-192
Mazda
8,943,710
8,607,717
171,051
164,942
-
-
-
-
McLaren
-7,890
-
-
-
-
-5,599
-2,291
-
Mercedes
304,261
304,261
-
-
-
-
-
-
Mitsubishi
2,039,380
1,611,677
171,946
202,975
52,782
-
-
-
Nissan
19,451,210
18,799,525
651,685
-
-
-
-
-
Porsche
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Subaru
20,701,475
11,593,033
3,215,610
2,599,744
3,293,088
-
-
-
Suzuki
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Tesla
52,161
-
-
52,161
-
-
-
-
Toyota
35,440,768
29,850,127
1,911,327
2,106,312
1,573,002
-
-
-
VW
2,629,693
1,028,379
-
1,221,510
379,804
-
-
-
Volvo
1,283,407
-
188,150
778,606
316,651
-
-
-
All Manufacturers
229,216,449
151,139,573
21,747,811
33,996,607
22,340,654
-5,599
-2,405
-192 0
AFPA eronmerrtaI Protection 2020 Automotive Trends Report
I Agency Section 5 Tables
46
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Environmental Protection 2020 Automotive Trends Report Office of Transportation and Air Quality
United States
Environmental
Agency Appendix Tables EPA-420-R-21-003
January 2021
Appendix Table A.l
Comparison of Preliminary and Final Real-World
Fuel Economy Values (mpg)
Preliminary
Final Minus
Model Year
Value
Final Value
Preliminary
2011
22.8
22.3
-0.5
2012
23.8
23.6
-0.2
2013
24.0
24.2
0.2
2014
24.2
24.1
-0.1
2015
24.7
24.6
-0.2
2016
25.6
24.7
-0.9
2017
25.2
24.9
-0.3
2018
25.4
25.1
-0.3
2019
25.5
24.9
-0.6
2020 (prelim)
25.7
-
-
47
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Environmental Protection 2020 Automotive Trends Report Office of Transportation and Air Quality
United States
Environmental
Agency Appendix Tables EPA-420-R-21-003
January 2021
Appendix Table C.l
Fuel Economy Metrics for the Model Year 2020 Toyota Prius Eco
Fuel Economy Metric
City/Highway
Purpose Weighting Test Basis
Fuel Economy Value (MPG)
City/Hwy City Hwy
2-cycle Test
(unadjusted)
Label
Estimated Real-World
Basis for manufacturer compliance with
, , H 55%/45% 2-cycle
standards
Consumer information to compare
. , 55%/45% 5-cycle
individual vehicles
Best estimate of real-world performance 43%/57% 5-cycle
81 84 78
56 58 53
55 58 53
48
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Environmental Protection 2020 Automotive Trends Report Office of Transportation and Air Quality
United States
Environmental
Agency Appendix Tables EPA-420-R-21-003
January 2021
Appendix Table E.l
Model Year 2020 Example EV and PHEV Powertrain and Range
Manufacturer
Model
Fuel or
Powertrain
Alternative Fuel
Range (miles)*
Total Range
(miles)
Utility
Factor
GM
Bolt
EV
259
259
-
Nissan
Leaf 62 kWh
EV
226
226
-
Tesla
Model 3 LR
EV
330
330
-
FCA
Pacifica
PHEV
32
520
0.61
Ford
Escape
PHEV
37
530
0.66
Honda
Clarity
PHEV
48
340
0.73
Toyota
Prius Prime
PHEV
25
640
0.53
Volvo
XC90
PHEV
18
520
0.43
49
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Environmental Protection 2020 Automotive Trends Report Office of Transportation and Air Quality
United States
Environmental
Agency Appendix Tables EPA-420-R-21-003
January 2021
Appendix Table E.2
Model Year 2020 Example EV and PHEV Fuel Economy Label Metrics
Manufacturer
Model
Fuel or
Powertrain
Charge Depleting
Charge
Sustaining
Overall Fuel
Economy
(mpge)
Electricity
(kW-hrs/
100 miles)
Gasoline
(gallons/
100 miles)
Fuel
Economy
(mpge)
Fuel
Economy
(mPg)
GM
Bolt
EV
29
-
118
N/A
118
Nissan
Leaf 62 kWh
EV
31
-
108
N/A
108
Tesla
Model 3 LR
EV
26
-
130
N/A
130
FCA
Pacifica
PHEV
41
0
82
30
48
Ford
Escape
PHEV
33
0
102
41
66
Honda
Clarity
PHEV
31
0
110
42
76
Toyota
Prius Prime
PHEV
25
0
133
54
78
Volvo
XC90
PHEV
58
0.1
55
27
34
50
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Environmental Protection 2020 Automotive Trends Report Office of Transportation and Air Quality
United States
Environmental
Agency Appendix Tables EPA-420-R-21-003
January 2021
Appendix Table E.3
Model Year 2020 Example EV and PHEV Label Tailpipe C02
Emissions Metrics
Manufacturer
Model
Fuel or
Powertrain
Tailpipe C02
(g/mile)
GM
Bolt
EV
0
Nissan
Leaf 62 kWh
EV
0
Tesla
Model 3 LR
EV
0
FCA
Pacifica
PHEV
119
Ford
Escape
PHEV
77
Honda
Clarity
PHEV
57
Toyota
Prius Prime
PHEV
78
Volvo
XC90
PHEV
197
51
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Environmental Protection 2020 Automotive Trends Report Office of Transportation and Air Quality
United States
Environmental
Agency Appendix Tables EPA-420-R-21-003
January 2021
Appendix Table E.4
Model Year 2020 EV and PHEV Upstream C02 Emission Metrics Metrics (g/mi)
Manufacturer
Model
Fuel or
Powertrain
Tailpipe & Total Upstream C02
Tailpipe & Net Upstream C02
Low
(g/mile)
Avg
(g/mile)
High
(g/mile)
Low
(g/mile)
Avg
(g/mile)
High
(g/mile)
GM
Bolt
EV
73
136
232
20
82
179
Nissan
Leaf 62 kWh
EV
80
148
254
23
91
197
Tesla
Model 3 LR
EV
66
122
210
4
60
148
FCA
Pacifica
PHEV
213
267
351
128
182
267
Ford
Escape
PHEV
152
199
273
94
142
215
Honda
Clarity
PHEV
129
178
255
72
120
197
Toyota
Prius Prime
PHEV
131
160
205
82
111
155
Volvo
XC90
PHEV
305
359
444
221
275
359
Average Sedan/Wagon
346
346
346
277
277
277
52
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