The
EPA Automotive
Trends Report
Greenhouse Gas Emissions,
Fuel Economy, and
Technology since 1975
Executive Summary
J-*A Umtqd States
En'/irprimgnl-jl Protection
EPA-420-S-21-001 January 2021
-------
Executive Summary
This annual report is part of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) commitment
to provide the public with information about new light-duty vehicle greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions, fuel economy, technology data, and auto manufacturers' performance in meet-
ing the agency's GHG emissions standards.
EPA has collected data on every new light-duty vehicle model sold in the United States
since 1975, either from testing performed by EPA at the National Vehicle and Fuel Emissions
Laboratory in Ann Arbor, Michigan, or directly from manufacturers using official EPA test
procedures. These data are collected to support several important national programs, in-
cluding EPA criteria pollutant and GHG standards, the U.S. Department of Transportation's
National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) Corporate Average Fuel Economy
(CAFE) standards, and vehicle Fuel Economy and Environment labels. This expansive data
set allows EPA to provide a uniquely comprehensive analysis of the automotive industry
over the last 45 years.
The carbon dioxide (C02) emissions and fuel economy data in this report fall into one of
two categories. The first is compliance data, which are measured using laboratory tests
required by law for CAFE and adopted by EPA for GHG compliance. The second is estimated
real-world data, which are measured using additional laboratory tests to capture a wider
range of operating conditions (including hot and cold weather, higher speeds, and faster
accelerations) encountered by an average driver. This report shows real-world data, except
for discussions specific to GHG compliance on pages ES-9 to ES-12 in this summary and
Section 5 of the report.
All data in this report for model years 1975 through 2019 are final and based on official
data submitted to EPA and NHTSA as part of the regulatory process. In some cases, this
report will show data for model year 2020, which are preliminary and based on data
provided to EPA by automakers prior to the model year, including projected production
volumes. However, the preliminary model year 2020 data included in this report were
generally reported to EPA before the outbreak of COVID-19, and any associated impacts
on the automobile industry. Therefore, the projected model year 2020 data may change
significantly before being finalized.
This report has been updated to reflect recent regulatory changes, including the Safer
Affordable Fuel-Efficient (SAFE) Vehicles rule finalized by EPA and NHTSA in April of 2020.
The SAFE rule established new light-duty GHG standards for model years 2021 -2026,
which are generally beyond the scope of this report. To download the full report, or to
explore the data using EPA's interactive data tools, visit the report webpage at
www.epa.gov/automotive-trends.
ES-2
-------
New vehicle estimated real-world CO2 emissions
increased slightly from last year's record low
In model year 2019, the average estimated
real-world C02 emission rate for all new
vehicles increased slightly (less than 1%)
from the record low achieved in model
year 2018. The new vehicle emission rate
increased 3 g/mi to 356 g/mi. Fuel economy
decreased by 0.2 miles per gallon to 24.9
mpg, or slightly below the record high
achieved in model year 2018.
Since 2004, C02 emissions have decreased
23%, or 105 g/mi, and fuel economy has
increased 29%, or 5.6 mpg. Over that time,
C02 emissions and fuel economy have
improved in twelve out of fifteen years. The
trends in C02 emissions and fuel economy
since 1975 are shown in Figure ES-1.
Preliminary data suggest improvements in
model year 2020. Average estimated real-
world C02 emissions are projected to fall
12 g/mi to 344 g/mi, and fuel economy is
projected to increase 0.8 mpg to 25.7 mpg.
Projected data are shown in Figure ES-1 as a
dot because the values are based on manu-
facturer projections rather than final data.
Figure ES-1. Estimated Real-World Fuel
Economy and C02
CD
CL
>*
E
o
c
o
o
LU
o
CO
0
a.
E
O)
'E
LU
O
O
T3
CO
0
a.
24
20'
16-
24.9 MPG
MY 2019
700
600
500
400
356 g/m
MY 2019
1975
1985
1995 2005
Model Year
2015
2025
All vehicle types are at or near record low CO2
emissions; however, market shifts away from cars
and towards sport utility vehicles (SUVs] and pickups
have offset some of the fleetwide benefits
In this report, vehicles are disaggregated into five vehicle types: sedan/wagon, car SUV,
truck SUV, pickup truck, and minivan/van. The distinction between car and truck SUVs is
based on regulatory definitions where SUVs that are 4WD or above a weight threshold
ES-3
-------
(6,000 pounds gross vehicle weight) are generally regulated as trucks and classified at truck
SUVs for this report. The remaining 2WD SUVs are subject to car standards and classified
as car SUVs.
All five vehicle types are at or near record high fuel economy and record low C02 emissions
in model year 2019. Truck SUVs had the largest improvement in fuel economy (0.4 mpg)
and C02 emissions (6 g/mi), followed by car SUVs and sedans/wagons. Pickups and mini-
vans had a small drop in fuel economy and increase in C02 emissions, but remain close to
record high fuel economy and record low C02 emissions set in model year 2018.
The overall new vehicle market continues to move away from the sedan/wagon vehicle
type towards a combination of truck SUVs, car SUVs, and pickups. Sedans and wagons fell
to 33% of the market, well below the 50% market share they held as recently as model
year 2013, and far below the 80% market share they held in 1975. Conversely, truck SUVs
reached a record 37% of the market in model year 2019, car SUVs reached a record 12% of
the market, and pickups have increased in recent years to 16% of the market.
The trend away from sedans/wagons, which remain the vehicle type with the highest fuel
economy and lowest C02 emissions, and towards vehicle types with lower fuel economy
and higher C02 emissions has offset some of the fleetwide benefits that otherwise would
have been achieved from the improvements within each vehicle type.
Figure ES-2. Production Share and Fuel Economy by Vehicle Type
100%
Sedan/Wagon
75%
Car SUV
o 50%
Truck SUV *
25%
Pickup
—i—i—
1995 2005
Model Year
—i r
2015
O
CL
2
o
30-
20-
10
30-
20.
10
30"
20
— 10
-------
Most manufacturers have improved CO2 emissions
and fuel economy over the last 5 years
Manufacturer trends over the last five years are shown in Figure ES-3. This span covers
the approximate length of a vehicle redesign cycle, and it is likely that most vehicles have
undergone design changes in this period, resulting in a more accurate depiction of recent
manufacturer trends than focusing on a single year. Changes over this time period can be
attributed to both vehicle design and changing vehicle production trends.
Over the last five years, ten of the fourteen largest manufacturers selling vehicles in the
U.S. decreased new vehicle estimated real-world C02 emission rates. Between model years
2014 and 2019, Kia achieved the largest reduction in C02 emissions, at 31 g/mi, followed by
Honda and Hyundai. Tesla was unchanged because their all-electric fleet produces no tail-
pipe C02 emissions. Three manufacturers increased new vehicle C02 emission rates; Mazda
had the largest increase, at 13 g/mi, followed by General Motors (GM) and Ford.
Eleven of the fourteen largest manufacturers increased fuel economy over the same period.
Tesla had the largest increase in fuel economy (measured in miles per gallon of gasoline
equivalent), due to the introduction of the Model 3 in model year 2017. The Model 3 is now
Tesla's most efficient and highest production vehicle. Of the remaining manufacturers,
Kia had the largest increase in fuel economy, again followed by Honda and Hyundai. Fuel
economy fell for three manufacturers; Mazda had the largest drop in fuel economy, fol-
lowed by GM and Ford.
For model year 2019 alone, Tesla's all-electric fleet had by far the lowest tailpipe C02
emissions and highest fuel economy of all large manufacturers. Tesla was followed by
Honda and Hyundai. Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCA) had the highest new vehicle average
C02 emissions and lowest fuel economy of the large manufacturers in model year 2019,
followed by GM and Ford.
Average new vehicle horsepower continues to
increase rapidly while weight is increasing slowly
Vehicle weight and horsepower are two fundamental vehicle attributes that influence a
vehicle's C02 emissions and fuel economy. For vehicles with internal combustion engines,
increased weight or horsepower generally results in higher C02 emissions and lower fuel
economy, all else being equal. Weight is also an important metric for electric vehicles, as
increased vehicle weight will generally result in lower fuel economy. However, electric
vehicles produce zero tailpipe emissions regardless of weight or horsepower. Over time,
automotive technology innovation has been applied to vehicle design with differing emphasis
between vehicle weight, power, C02 emissions and fuel economy (Figure ES-4).
ES-5
-------
Figure ES-3. Changes in Estimated Real-World Fuel Economy1 and C02for Large Manufacturers
Fuel Economy (MPG), 2014 - 2019
C02 Emissions (g/mi), 2014 - 2019
Tesla
45
Honda
Hyundai
Subaru
Kia
Mazda
Nissan
BMW
VW
Toyota
Mercedes
Ford
GM
FCA
All Manufacturers
90.2'
70
95
>>118
120
0~7 O ¦
-~28.5
¦~28.4
27.3
25
£ / .O^
26.7 ~ 27.
26.1 ~ 26.2
26.1>26.1
4-~25.8
t
J
25
3.7
23.1 —~;
22.5*4 22.7
22.5-4 22.7
).7 ¦~ 21.2
2C
24.1
24.9
50
100
150
200
311- 4 327
312- 4 325
2/
6
30
5 ~ 320
329-4 332
337 -4 3^
338-4—
345 -4-
5Z
n
3
48
350
37
4-4—38"
391 ~;
391 ~;
595
595
418-4—428
356
4-
369
20
24
28
32
300
350
400
450
1 Electric vehicles, including Tesla's all-electric fleet, are measured in terms of miles per gallon of gasoline equivalent, or mpge.
-------
In the two decades before model year 2004, technology innovation was generally used to
increase vehicle power, and weight increased due to changing vehicle design, increased
vehicle size, and increased content. During this period, average new vehicle fuel economy
steadily decreased and C02 emissions correspondingly increased. However, since model
year 2004, technology has been used to increase both fuel economy (up 29%) and power
(up 16%), while reducing C02 emissions (down 23%). Average vehicle weight in model year
2019 was only slightly above
2004 but has increased slowly Figure ES-4. Percent Change in Fuel Economy,
over the last several years Horsepower, and Weight Since 1975
and is currently at the highes
point on record.
One additional vehicle metric
not shown in Figure ES-4 is
vehicle footprint, or the area
enclosed by the four tires.
Footprint is the basis for
determining regulatory
standards under the GHG
and CAFE regulations. Since
EPA began tracking footprint
in model year 2008, average
footprint has increased
about 4%, and is at the
highest point on record
at 50.8 square feet.
>1
LO
CD
-------
systems can turn off the engine entirely at idle to save fuel. Hybrid vehicles use a larger bat-
tery to recapture braking energy and provide power when necessary, allowing for a smaller,
more efficiently operated engine. The hybrid category includes "full" hybrid systems that
can temporarily power the vehicle without engaging the engine and smaller "mild" hybrid
systems that cannot propel the vehicle on their own. Transmissions that have more gear
ratios, or speeds, allow the engine to more frequently operate near peak efficiency. Two
categories of advanced transmissions are shown in Figure ES-5: transmission with seven or
more discrete speeds (7+Gears), and continuously variable transmissions (CVTs). Many of the
technologies in Figure ES-5 have been adopted rapidly by the industry. For example, GDI was
used in fewer than 3% of vehicles as recently as model year 2008 but is projected to be in
more than 55% of vehicles in model year 2020. Electric vehicles (EVs), plug-in hybrid vehicles
(PHEVs), and fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) are a small but growing percentage of new vehicles.
Figure ES-5. Technology Share for Large Manufacturers, Model Year 2020
Tesla -
Honda -
Hyundai
Subaru -
Kia -
Mazda -
Nissan -
BMW -
VW -
Toyota -
Mercedes -
Ford -
GM -
FCA -
All Manufacturers
100%
52% 73% 70% 23% 9% 18% 6% 1%
15% 62% 30% 42% 22% 4% 2%
23% 98% 94%
52%
0%
9% 67% 31% 27% 28%
2% 2%
20% 100%
60%
7% 57% 86% 12%
2%
99% 99%
98% 93%
4%
91 % 97%
91% 86% 2% 7%
4%
3% 2% 31% 42% 13%
12% 1%
98% 100%
100% 83%
7% 15% 0%
78% 66% 5% 81% 86% 10% 5%
1%
45% 83%
62% 69% 44%
1%
18% 15% 1% 91% 53% 24% 20%
1%
35% 55% 28% 51% 42% 14% 7% 4%
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Turbo GDI CVT 7+Gears StopStart CD Hybrid PHEV/
EV/FCV
ES-8
-------
All fourteen large manufacturers achieved compliance
with the GHG standards through model year 2019
EPA's GHG program is an averaging, banking, and trading (ABT) program. An ABT program
means that the standards may be met on a fleet average basis, manufacturers may earn
and bank credits to use later, and manufacturers may trade credits with other manufac-
turers. This provides manufacturers flexibility in meeting the standards while accounting
for vehicle design cycles, introduction rates of new technologies and emission improve-
ments, and evolving consumer preferences.
Within a model year, manu-
facturers with average fleet
emissions lower than the
standards generate credits,
and manufacturers with
average fleet emissions
higher than the standards
generate deficits. Any manu-
facturer with a deficit at the
end of the model year has up
to three years to offset the
deficit with credits earned
in future model years, or
purchased from another
manufacturer. Because
credits may not be carried
forward unless deficits from
all prior model years have
been resolved, a positive
credit balance means compli-
ance with the current and all
previous model years of the
program. GHG Credits (Tg of C02)
The fourteen largest manufacturers ended model year 2019 with a positive credit balance
and are thus in compliance for model year 2019 and all previous years of the GHG program.
The accumulated credits shown in Figure ES-6 will be carried forward for use in future model
years. Total credits are shown in teragrams (one million Megagrams), and account for man-
ufacturer performance compared to their standards, expected vehicle lifetime miles driven,
and the number of vehicles produced by each manufacturer, for all years of the GHG program.
Figure ES-6. GHG Credit Balance for Large
Manufacturers, after Model Year 2019
FCA -
Honda ¦
Toyota -
Subaru -
GM -
Nissan -
Hyundai
Ford ¦
Mazda -
BMW ¦
VW-
Kia -
Mercedes ¦
Tesla
10
20
30
Credits Expiring 2021
Credits Expiring 2022
Credits Expiring 2023
Credits Expiring 2024
40
50
ES-9
-------
Most large manufacturers used banked or purchased
credits to maintain compliance in model year 2019
Manufacturers used different combinations of technology improvements, banked credits,
and purchased credits to achieve compliance in 2019. Tesla, Honda, and Subaru achieved
compliance based on the emission performance of their vehicles, without requiring
additional banked credits. All other large manufacturers used banked or purchased credits,
along with technology improvements, to achieve compliance in model year 2019.
Figure ES-7 illustrates the performance of individual large manufacturers in model year
2019 compared to their overall standard, in terms of an average vehicle grams per mile
emission rate. This "snapshot" provides insight into how the large manufacturers per-
formed against the standards in model year 2019. However, it does not account for the fact
that all large manufacturers had credits available from previous years, or they were able to
purchase credits to ensure their credit balance remained positive after model year 2019.
Figure ES-7. Performance and Standards by Manufacturer, Model Year 2019
E 200
O)
O
x
o
CD
O
£ 0
o
O
-200
Below Standard Above Standard
< ~
4272f
212 ¦ 222 I 235 ¦ 234 I 226 ¦ 280 I 247 I 241 I 282 I 242 I 223 ¦ 303 ¦ 282
¦&
¦
¦ Standard
Performance
&
Irk
ES-10
-------
The regulations include an incentive multiplier that allowed each 2019 model year electric
vehicle to be counted as two. The impact of this incentive is particularly evident for Tesla,
because Tesla produces only electric vehicles. Before including the multiplier, Tesla's model
year 2019 performance value was -22 g/mi, due to their 0 g/mi tailpipe emissions and 22
g/mi of air conditioning and off-cycle credits. The multiplier lowered Tesla's performance
value another 214 g/mi, which is equivalent to the difference between Tesla's standard and
tailpipe emissions, resulting in a performance value of -236 g/mi, as shown in Figure ES-7.
The overall industry used credits for the fourth year
in a row to maintain compliance, but there remains a
large bank of credits for future years
Under the GHG Program, manufacturers were able to accrue "early credits," before the
GHG standards took effect in model year 2012, for early deployment of efficient vehicles
and technology. For the next four years, manufacturers continued to generate credits,
as the industry GHG performance was below the industry-wide average standard. In the
last four years, the industry GHG performance has been above the industry-wide average
standard, resulting in net withdrawals from the bank of credits to maintain compliance. In
model year 2019, the industry maintained overall GHG performance at 253 g/mi, while the
standard fell from 252 g/mi to 246 g/mi. The gap between the standard and GHG perfor-
mance grew from 1 g/mi in model year 2018 to 7 g/mi in model year 2019. To maintain
compliance the industry drew down their industry-wide total credit bank by about 24 Tg,
which was less than 10% of the total available credit balance. The overall industry emerged
from model year 2019 with a bank of more than 229 teragrams (Tg) of GHG credits avail-
able for future use, as seen in Figure ES-8.
In addition to the balance of the industry-wide bank, the expiration date and distribution
of credits are also important factors. Credits earned in model year 2017 or beyond have a
five-year life, while all prior credits (two-thirds of the current bank) will expire at the end of
model year 2021. At the present time, an active credit market is enabling manufacturers to
purchase credits to demonstrate compliance, with eight manufacturers selling credits, ten
manufacturers purchasing credits, and approximately 70 credit trades since 2012. However,
the availability of current or future credits is inherently uncertain.
ES-11
-------
Figure ES-8. Industry Performance and Standards, Credit Generation and Use
E
^3)
CD
X
CD
0
o
Q.
E
o
O
300
280
260
240
299
• Standard
I Performance
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
300-
cT
250-
o
o
O)
H
200-
CO
T>
150-
0
o
o
100-
T
CD
50-
0-
Early Credits 2012
(2009-2011)
2013
2014
Credits Earned
Credits Used
Total
2015 2016
Model Year
Credits expiring
in 2021 ~
2017
2018
2019 Carry to
2020
The automobile industry continues to innovate,
improve, and meet the GHG standards
The analysis here is a snapshot of the data collected by EPA in support of several important
regulatory programs and is presented with the intent of providing as much transparency
to the public as possible. The data show the change and innovation in the industry since
model year 1975, and the manufacturers' performance under EPA's GHG standards.
To download the full report, or to explore the data using EPA's interactive data tools, visit
the report webpage at www.epa.gov/automotive-trends.
ES-12
-------
This technical report does not necessarily represent final EPA decisions, positions, or validation of compliance
data reported to EPA by manufacturers. It is intended to present technical analysis of issues using data
that are currently available and that may be subject to change. The purpose of the release of such reports
is to facilitate the exchange of technical information and to inform the public of technical developments.
These data reflect the most current available data. Historic data have been adjusted, when appropriate, to
reflect the result of compliance investigations by EPA or any other corrections necessary to maintain data
integrity. This edition of the report supersedes all previous versions.
The Department of Justice and EPA have reached a settlement with Mercedes based on the sale of certain
diesel vehicles equipped with devices to defeat the vehicles' emission control systems. This report includes
the original fuel economy and GHG certification values of these vehicles, as EPA believes this is a reason-
able representation of how these vehicles were expected to perform. The affected vehicles are certain
model year 2009 to 2016 diesel vehicles from Mercedes, and account for less than 1% of production in all
affected years. For more information about this settlement, please see www.epa.gov/enforcement/daimler-
ag-and-mercedes-benz-usa-llc-clean-air-act-civil-settlement.
ES-13
------- |