A Multi-Model Ecosystem Simulator for Predicting the Effects of Multiple Stressors on Great Plains Ecosystems The Regional Applied Research Efforts (RARE) Program promotes collaboration between EPA regions and the Office of Research and De- velopment (ORD). ORD provides $200,000 per year to each region to further develop a current ORD near-term research topic that can be enhanced to fit the region's top priorities. These funds are directed by each region's science liaison and science program to projects at ORD labs or through existing ORD partnerships. Stretching all the way from North- ern Oklahoma through Northern Kansas, the Flint Hills ecosystem is considered by ecologists to be its own unique ecosystem, sepa- rate from that of the Great Plains. Due to the abundance of grass plains that cover the Flint Hills, bio- mass burning is used to manage the growth and reach of prairie and grassland. Burning is important to prairie ecosystems because it con- trols species, recycles nutrients, and clears off dead growth. Unfor- tunately, grassland burning also releases harmful pollutants into the atmosphere which can cause air quality problems under certain con- ditions. The Flint Hills project will exam- ine the effects of various stressors on agricultural and prairie ecosys- tems, including the effects of rangeland burning. The project is a collaborative effort between Re- gion 1: the National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory's Western Ecology Divi- S EPA Region 7 sion, and Kansas State University. The goal of the study is to develop regional-scale geographic informa- tion system (GIS) databases and process-based models for spatially and temporally extrapolating the effects of multiple stressors on ag- ricultural and prairie ecosystems. Stressors will include fire, grazing, invasion of woody species, climate change, and contaminants, as well as others. Because no single model can ad- dress all stressors and effects of interest, several models will be integrated together, each one serving a unique purpose. The PSM biogeochemistrv model will be linked with theGTHM hydrology model to predict the effects of land use and climate on the Flint Hills ecosystem. For example, how will alternative fire management and climate scenarios affect rangeland productivity, carbon sequestration, and stream water quality and quantity? GTHM-PSM's bio- mass predictions will be used as input for BlueSky, a meteorologi- cally-based fire management model that simulates smoke trans- port and consequent impacts on regional air quality, including dis- tant urban areas such as Kansas City. The completed modeling frame- work will establish a foundation for comprehensive risk assessments that consider both the ecological and air quality impacts of biomass burning. It will track conditions of FlIttfT ' 1 lots 'llf ¦ 3 WcftwJ -754-4631 U.S. EPA Region 7: 2007 ------- |