DRAFT
DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE
EPA/600/R-1 l/058b
August 2011
External Review Draft
MBP Report Tables and Figures
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Table 1-1. Breakout group participants for the expert elicitation workshop
(see Appendix A for further details on selection criteria and credentials)
Sediment Retention Group
Community Interactions Group
Susan Adamowicz
Rachel Carson National Wildlife Refuge
Walter Berry
U.S. EPA Atlantic Ecology Division
Britt Argow
Wellesley College
Robert Buchsbaum
Massachusetts Audubon Society
Chris Hein
Boston University
Dave Burdick
University of New Hampshire
David Ralston
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
Michelle Dionne
Wells National Estuarine Research Reserve
John Ramsey
Applied Coastal Research and Engineering
David Johnson
Woods Hole Marine Biological Laboratory
Peter Rosen
Northeastern University
Gregg Moore
University of New Hampshire
John Teal
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute
Cathy Wigand
U.S. EPA Atlantic Ecology Division
This document is a draft for review purposes only and does not constitute Agency policy.
T-1 DRAFT— DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE
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Table 2-1. Summary of Climate Scenario A ("Lower-Range" Scenario) and
Climate Scenario B ("Higher-Range" Scenario): averages for mid-century
"Lower Range" Scenario
(3-model average of Bl)*
"Higher Range" Scenario
(3-model average of AlFi)*
Annual Average
+3.6°F
+5.6°F
Geographically
Boston "moves" to Philadelphia,
PA
Boston "moves" to Washington,
DC
Temperature
Days > 90°Fa
20 days
34 days
Coldest Day of Year
+4.3 °F
+6.5 °F
Growing Season
+3 weeks
+4 weeks
Winter change
+10.6%
+15.1%
Summer Change
+7.9%
+11.2%
Spring Change
+15.0%
+14.1%
Precipitation
Fall Change
+1.9%
-2.2%
Heavy Events
~8% increase in the max amount
of precip to fall within a 5-day
period
—12.5% increase in the max
amount of precip to fall within a 5-
day period
Yearly Snow Depth
-9 cm
-11 cm
Sea Level
Total Increase
17 cm (SLAMM model A1B
scenario)
41 cm (SLAMM mid-century
model estimate using 1.5 m
scenario by end of century)b
Storms/Wind
NECIA (2006) suggests little change in the frequency of winter-time
storms for the East Coast. However, under the "higher range" scenario,
between 5 and 15% of these storms (an additional 1 storm per year) will
move northward during late winter (Jan, Feb, March), affecting the
Northeast. (No change for the "lower range" scenario.) In addition, the
impact of a higher sea level will increase the likelihood of storm damage
to coastal locations.
For hurricanes, the most current understanding is that rising sea surface
temperatures will increase evaporation, increasing the amount of rainfall
associated with any given hurricane, but there is too much uncertainty in
projections of hurricane frequency and wind intensity to say much about
future trends.
Ice-out
2 weeks earlier
4 weeks earlier
Spring peak flow period
7 days earlier
10 days earlier
Summer low flow period
1 week longer
2 weeks longer
Drought0 frequency
2 every three years (compared to 1 every 2 years today)
Winter flooding events
2-fold increase in number of events
General increases in salinity of estuarine waters, freshwater tributaries, and coastal aquifers during summer
*Please refer to Appendix C for more information on the development of the climate scenarios.
a Compared to the 1960-1990 annual average of 9 days with temperatures above 90°F.
b The total difference in range between mean and spring tides of 1.3 ft (39.6 cm) is very close to the higher emission
scenario rise of 41 cm. Based on data for Plum Island Sound (south entrance), the spring high tide is generally 0.65
feet (19.8 cm) higher than the mean high tide. http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gOv/tidesl0/tab2eclb.html#8.
0 Defined as the monthly soil moisture is more than 10% below the long-term mean (relative to historic simulations).
This document is a draft for review purposes only and does not constitute Agency policy.
T-2 DRAFT— DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE
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Table 2-2. Coding scheme used during the workshop exercise to characterize
influences. "Small" and "large" changes in variables are defined relative to
the current range of variation for each variable, with "small" indicating that
the variable is within its current range of variation and "large" indicating
that the variable has moved outside its current range of variation
Option
Type and Degree of Influence Definition
0
No influence: We know that changes in X have no effect on changes in Y, holding all
other variables constant.
1
Unknown influence: We don't know whether an increase in X will increase, decrease,
or have no effect on Y.
2
Proportional increase: A large increase in X is likely to cause a large increase in Y. A
small increase is likely to cause a small increase.
3
Proportional decrease: A large decrease in X is likely to cause a large decrease in Y. A
small decrease is likely to cause a small decrease.
4
Inverse decrease: A small increase in X is likely to cause a small decrease in Y. A large
increase in X is likely to cause a large decrease in Y.
5
Inverse increase: A small decrease in X is likely to cause a small increase in Y. A large
decrease in X is likely to cause a large increase in Y.
6
A small increase in X is likely to cause a large increase in Y.
7
A small increase in X is likely to cause a large decrease in Y.
8
A large increase in X is likely to cause a small increase in Y.
9
A large increase in X is likely to cause a small decrease in Y.
10
A small decrease in X is likely to cause a large increase in Y.
11
A small decrease in X is likely to cause a large decrease in Y.
12
A large decrease in X is likely to cause a small increase in Y.
13
A large decrease in X is likely to cause a small decrease in Y.
Table 2-3. Coding scheme used during the workshop exercise to characterize
interactive influences
Interactive Influence
Definition
Independence
The effect of X on Y is independent of Z (default situation)
Synergy
The effect of X on Y increases with increase in Z
AND Gate
The effect of X on Y happens only with large Z
NOR Gate
The effect of X on Y happens only with small Z
Competition
The effect of X on Y decreases with increase in Z
Table 2-4. Coding scheme used during the workshop exercise to characterize
confidence
Confidence
Definition
LH
Low evidence, High agreement = Established but incomplete
LL
Low evidence, Low agreement = Speculative
HH
High evidence, High agreement = Well established
HL
High evidence, Low agreement = Competing explanations
This document is a draft for review purposes only and does not constitute Agency policy.
T-3 DRAFT— DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE
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Table 2-5. Sediment Retention variable definitions
Variable
Definition Agreed Upon by Group
Nutrient Inputs
Annual loading rate (of Nitrogen &
Phosphorous)
Altered Flows: Tidal Restrictions
% reduction compared to unrestricted flow
Land Cover: % Impervious Cover
% impervious cover
Marsh High Water Level
High tide limit, measured by where marsh
vegetation changes to upland vegetation -
includes integrated sea level
Storms
Frequency & intensity of (severe) storms
Tidal Exchange
Tidal prism
Freshwater Flow
Rate of freshwater inflow to the estuary from
the watershed
Sediment Supply
External sources (terrestrial and marine) of
inorganic material feeding the marsh, as
measured by mass flux
Coastal and Nearshore Erosion
Net volume of eroded sediment from coastal
zone
Surface Roughness
The interaction of stem density, height and
diameter (based on plant species
characteristics) with hydrodynamic regime
Marsh Edge Erosion
Volume of peat calved off marsh edges
Inundation Regime
Frequency, depth, and duration of marsh
flooding
Below Ground Biomass
Below-ground biomass accumulation rate
Net Accretion
Net elevation change
Sediment Deposition / Retention
Amount per year (e.g., mm/yr)
This document is a draft for review purposes only and does not constitute Agency policy.
T-4 DRAFT— DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE
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Table 2-6. Sediment Retention group influence judgments; columns A-FF represent individual influences (arrows) in
the influence diagram and rows represent individual respondents: dark green = agreement on influence type and
degree, light green = agreement on type but not degree, gray = no agreement; within columns, green numbers = same
(majority) grouping of type (though degree may be different), pink numbers = disagreement about type, red outline =
threshold response
CURRENT
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
N
O
P
Q
R
S
T
U
V
W
X
Y
Z
AA
BB
CC
DD
EE
FF
Resp. 1
2A6
2
2
9
2
2A6
0
2A6
2A6
6
6
6
2
12
6
2A8
2A8
2
0A2
2
2A6
2A6
4
2A
2A
2
2
4
2
Resp. 2
2/3
6|3
8A9
7
2/3
2/3
2/3
6|3
2
2/3
8/13
4/5
2/3
2/3
2
6
2/3
2/3
4A6
4/5
2A
6/11
2/3
2/3
Resp. 3
2/3
2/3
2/3
4/5
2/3
4/5
0
2/3
2/3
2/3
2/3
2/3
8/13
2/3
2/3
2/3
2/3
8/13
2/3
2/3
2/3
4/5
2/3
2/3
2/3
4/5
2/3
Resp. 4
2
2
4
4
2/3
2
6
2
2
2
9
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
4
2
2
2
5
3
Resp. 5
6
8
6
9
6
7
0
6
6
6
6
1 6
8
6
2
2
8
2
9
6
2
2
2
3
2
Resp. 6
2
2
2
8
2
2
0
8
2
2
2
8
9
9
2
8
2
2
8
8
2
9
2A
2
2
2
4
2
Resp. 7
2
2
2
5
4
4
0Ai
2
2
2
2
2
0A2
4A6
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
5
2A
2A
2AI
4
2
CLIMATE A
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
N
O
P
Q
R
S
T
U
V
W
X
Y
Z
AA
BB
CC
DD
EE
FF
Resp. 1
2
2
2
2A9
9
2A6
0
2A6
2A6
6
6
6
2
6
2A8
2A8
2
2A4
2A6
4
2A
4
2A
8
2
4
2
Resp. 2
2/3
6
2
0A4
7
4
6
6
6
6
2
8
2
8
6
2
2
2/3
2A
4
2
8
2/3
Resp. 3
2/3
2/3
2/3
2/3
4/5
0
2/3
2/3
2/3
2/3
2/3
8/13
2/3
6/11
2/3
2/3
8/13
6/11
2/3
4/5
2/3
4/5
2/3
2/3
4/5
2/3
Resp. 4
0
2
2
4
7
4
2/3
2
6
2
2
2A
2
2
2
8
2
2
4
2
2
2
5
3
Resp. 5
6
6
6
9
4
7
0
6
6
6
6
6
8
8
8
8
6
6
2
2
2
2
Resp. 6
2
2
2
8
2
2
0
8
2
2
2
8
9
2
8
2
2
8
2
2
2A
4
3
2
Resp. 7
2
2
2
5
4
2
2
2
2
2
2
0A2
2
2
2
2
1A2
2/3
5
2A
2A4
2A
2A4
2AI
4
2
CLIMATE B
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
N
O
P
Q
R
S
T
u
V
W
X
Y
Z
AA
BB
CC
DD
EE
FF
Resp. 1
2A6
2
2A6
2A9
9
2A6
0
6
6
6
6
6
2
6
2A8
2A8
2
2A4
6
4
2A
4
2A
8
2
4
2
Resp. 2
2/3
2
8
0A4
7
4
6
6
6
6
2
8
2
8
6
2
2
2/3
2A
4
8
2/3
2/3
Resp. 3
2/3
2/3
2/3
2/3
4/5
0
2/3
2/3
2/3
2/3
2/3
8/13
2/3
6/11
2/3
2/3
8/13
6/11
2/3
4/5
2/3
4/5
2/3
2/3
2/3
Resp. 4
2
2
4
7
4
2/3
2
6
2
2
2A
2
2
2
8
2
2
4
2
2
2
3
Resp. 5
6
6
6
9
4
7
0
6
6
6
6
6
8
8
8
8
6
6
2
2
2
2
2
Resp. 6
2
2
2
8
2
2
0
8
2
2
2
2
2
2
8
2
2A4
8
2
2
2A
4
3
2
2
Resp. 7
2
2A6
2A6
5
4
2
2A6
2A6
2A6
2A6
2A6
0A2A6
2
2
2A6
2A6
1A2
2/3
5
2A
2A4
2A
2
2
2
2
This document is a draft for re\'iew purposes only and does not constitute Agency policy.
T-5 DRAFT— DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE
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Table 2-7. Sediment Retention group confidence for influences with agreement: NA = No agreement; HIT = High
evidence, High agreement; HL = High evidence, Low agreement; LH = Low evidence, High agreement; LL = Low
evidence, Low agreement
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
N
O
P
Q
R
T
V
W
X
Y
AA
CC
DD
EE
FF
CURRENT
HH
HH
HH
NA
NA
HH
HH
HH
HH
NA
HH
NA
NA
NA
HH
HH
NA
HH
NA
HH
HH
NA
HH
NA
NA
HH
NA
HH
SCENARIO A
HH
HH
HH
NA
NA
HH
NA
HH
HH
HH
HH
HH
NA
NA
HH
HH
NA
HH
NA
HH
HH
NA
NA
NA
NA
HH
NA
NA
SCENARIO B
HH
HH
HH
NA
NA
HH
NA
HH
HH
HH
HH
HH
NA
NA
NA
HH
NA
HH
NA
HH
HH
NA
NA
NA
NA
HH
NA
NA
Table 2-8. Sediment Retention group interactive influences with agreement under current conditions and Climate
Scenarios A and B: NA = No agreement; HH = High evidence, High agreement; HL = High evidence, Low agreement;
LH = Low evidence, High agreement; LL = Low evidence, Low agreement; () = Number of respondents
Interaction
Variable X
on
Variable Y
with
Variable Z
CURRENT
CLIMATE A
CLIMATE B
Interactive
Influence
Confidence
Interactive
Influence
Confidence
Interactive
Influence
Confidence
B+C
Marsh High
Water Level
on
Inundation Regime
with
Storms
Synergy (4)
HH
Synergy (6)
HH
Synergy (6)
HH
H+I
Land Cover: %
Impervious Cover
on
Freshwater Flow
with
Storms
NA
NA
Synergy (3)
HH
Synergy (3)
NA
V+W
Surface
Roughness
on
Sediment
Deposition /
Retention
with
Sediment Supply
Synergy (3)
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
w+v
Sediment Supply
on
Sediment
Deposition /
Retention
with
Surface Roughness
NA
NA
Synergy (3)
HH
Synergy (3)
HH
This document is a draft for review purposes only and does not constitute Agency policy.
T-6 DRAFT— DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE
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Table 2-9. Community Interactions variable definitions
Variable
Definition Agreed Upon by Group
Open Marsh Water
Management (OMWM)
Acreage in projects
Sea Level
Water height (mm) at mean lower low water
Freshwater Flow
[1] cfs at gauging stations on Ipswich and Parker Rivers, trends
over time
[EPA] Rate of freshwater inflow to the estuary from the
watershed
Land Use / Land Cover:
Residential Development
[1] (relative area of upland cleared *0.5) + (relative area of
impervious surface)
[2] % border developed and proximity (km) from sensitive
habitats (i.e., marsh)
[3] % watershed developed (all human made structures and
landscapes)
[4] % residential (among others)
[5] Lawn/asphalt in shoreland zone
Soil Temperature
Soil temperature in °C or °F
Tidal Restrictions
Any restriction to tidal inundation into the marshes (e.g., road
crossings or any other barrier to inflow)
Inundation Regime
% time high marsh under water during April-October
Sedimentation
Average concentration of suspended sediment in the water
column (mg/1)
Nitrogen
[1] Unit N/unit area/year (g N/m /yr)
[2] Total inorganic Nitrogen inputs from uplands
[3] kg/ha/yr to Plum Island Sound measured from permanent
Long Term Ecological Research Network (LTER) sampling
stations
Above Ground Plant
Biomass
[1] Biomass accumulation rate
[EPA] Total mass of plant material
Salinity
Soil salinity (ppt)
Below Ground Plant
Biomass
% organic matter
Ratio of Native High Marsh
to Phragmites
% extent (m) of high marsh vegetation to Phragmites cover
Marsh Elevation
Height above mean lower low water
Ratio Low Marsh to High
Marsh
[1] % extent (m) of low marsh vegetation to high marsh
vegetation
[2] % cover, species composition/abundance
Saltmarsh Sharp-Tailed
Sparrow Nesting Habitat
% extent of habitat as proportion of total marsh extent, or total
area (m2) available as habitat
This document is a draft for review purposes only and does not constitute Agency policy.
T-7 DRAFT— DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE
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Table 2-10. Community Interactions group influence judgments; columns A-FF represent individual influences
(arrows) in the influence diagram and rows represent individual respondents: dark green = agreement on influence
type and degree, light green = agreement on type but not degree, gray = no agreement; within columns, green numbers
= same (majority) grouping of type (though degree may be different), pink numbers = disagreement about type, red
outline = threshold response
CURRENT
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
N
O
P
Q
R
S
T
U
V
W
X
Y
Z
AA
BB
CC
DD
EE
FF
Resp. 1
6
2/3
4
2/3
2/3
6
6
7|3
2/3
2/3
2/3
2/3
7
2
2/3
4/5
7
2
2
10
6/11
11
2/3
2/3
5
4
Resp. 2
2
2
9
8
2
8
9
7
2
6
8
9
2
8
2
4
8
3
3
8
12
Resp. 3
2|
2
9
8
2
2
4
4
2
2
2
2
4
2
2
4
2A4
2
2
4
2
2
4
2/3
2|5
12
Resp. 4
2
2
4
8
2
8
8
2
2
2
2
7
2
2
4
4
8
3
4
8
8
7
12
Resp. 5
2/3
2
4/5
2/3
4/5
2/3
2/3
4/5
2/3
4/5
4/5
2/3
2/3
2/3
4/5
2/3
4/5
Resp. 6
2
2
4
2
4
2
2/3
2
2
4
2
4
2
2
5
8
6
12
2
2|5
12
Resp. 7
4/5
8| 2
2
2/3
2/3
4/5
2/3
2/3
2/3
2/3
7
2/3
2/3
4/5
2/3
2/3
2/3
7|11
4/5
2/3
5
CLIMATE A
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
N
O
P
Q
R
S
T
U
V
W
X
Y
Z
AA
BB
CC
DD
EE
FF
Resp. 1
6
2/3
4
2/3
2/3
6
6
3|7
2/3
2/3
2/3
2/3
2
2/3
4/5
7
2
2
10
6/11
11
2/3
4
Resp. 2
2A6
6
9
8
2
8
9
2
2
6
2
4
2
4
8
2
2| 2
4
8
2/3
8
12
Resp. 3
2
9
8
2
6
7
2
2
6
2
4
8
2
4
2A4
2
8
2
8
Resp. 4
9
2A6
4
A8
2
8
8
2
2
2
2
2
8
4A9
9
8
3
4
0A8
8
8
12
Resp. 5
2/3
2
4/5
2/3
4/5
2/3
2/3
4/5
2/3
4/5
4/5
2/3
2/3
2/3
2/3
2/3
Resp. 6
2
2
4
2
4
2A I
2
2
2
4
2
2
4
2
2
5
8
6
2
4
Resp. 7
7|11
4/5
8| I
2
2/3
2/3
2/3
2/3
2/3
2/3
2/3
2/3
4/5
2/3
2/3
2/3
7|11
2/3
4
CLIMATE B
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
N
O
P
Q
R
S
T
U
V
w
X
Y
Z
AA
BB
CC
DD
EE
FF
Resp. 1
6
2/3
4
2/3
2/3
6
6
6A9
2/3
2/3
2/3
2
2/3
4/5
7
2
6
10
6/11
11
2/3
4
Resp. 2
8
8
9
8
2
8
9
4
2
6
2
4
2
4
8
4
8
2/3
8
Resp. 3
2
9
8
2
6
7
7
6
6
4
8
2A4
8
8
8
Resp. 4
9
2A6
4
8
2A6
8
2
7
2A8
2
2A
2
2
4A9
9
2A8
3A11
4
8
8
Resp. 5
2/3
2
4/5
2/3
4/5
2/3
2/3
4/5
2/3
4/5
4/5
2/3
2/3
2/3
2/3
2/3
Resp. 6
8
2
4
2
4
4
2A8
2
2
4
2|
2
4
2
2
5
4
2
2
Resp. 7
7|11
4/5
8| 2
2
2/3
2/3
4
2/3
2/3
2/3
2/3
2/3
4/5
2/3
2/3
2/3
11
2/3
4
This document is a draft for re\'iew purposes only and does not constitute Agency policy.
T-8 DRAFT— DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE
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Table 2-11. Community Interactions group confidence for influences with agreement: NA = No agreement; HIT = High
evidence, High agreement; HL = High evidence, Low agreement; LH = Low evidence, High agreement; LL = Low
evidence, Low agreement
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
I
J
K
L
M
O
P
Q
R
S
T
U
V
Y
Z
AA
BB
CC
DD
EE
CURRENT
NA
HH
HH
NA
HH
NA
NA
NA
NA
HH
HH
HH
HH
HH
HH
NA
NA
NA
HH
HH
HH
NA
LH
LH
HH
HH
HH
SCENARIO A
NA
NA
HH
NA
HH
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
HH
HH
NA
NA
HH
NA
NA
NA
HH
NA
NA
NA
LH
NA
NA
NA
NA
SCENARIO B
NA
NA
HH
NA
HH
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
HH
LH
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
LH
NA
NA
NA
NA
This document is a draft for review purposes only and does not constitute Agency policy.
T-9 DRAFT— DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE
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Table 2-12. Adaptation strategies and associated top pathways for
management (see section 3.2 for pathways). SG=Sediment Retention Green
pathway; SB=Sediment Retention Blue pathway; SP=Sediment Retention
Purple pathway; CG=Community Interactions Green pathway;
CB=Community Interactions Blue pathway; CP=Community Interactions
Purple pathway.
Adaptation Strategies
Pathways
Conduct "multi-habitat restoration" (i.e., restore the "habitat mosaic") with a priority on
habitats with the highest values
CG
Recognize and take advantage of the ability of marshes to "restore" themselves under the
right conditions
SG, CG,
CB, CP
Monitor the composition of the inorganic sediments in the marsh, as well as the structure of
the peat
SB, SP
Measure local maximum growth rates to determine the degree of sea level rise that
vegetation can withstand, and manage around that threshold/target level
CG, CB,
SB
Monitor the line between high and low marsh areas to determine how the marshes are
holding up against sea level rise
SG, CG,
CP
Identify, acquire and/or protect potential areas where marsh can grow and expand, and
remove barriers to marsh migration
SG, CG,
CB
Upgrade sewage treatment plants (e.g., tertiary treatment) and combined sewer overflow
systems to reduce the flow of excess nutrients into the marsh
SB, CG
Improve stormwater management to reduce non-point source nutrient inputs into the marsh
SB, CG
Promote more absorbent land cover and "rain catchers" to prevent additional runoff
SB, CG
Control the hydrodynamic regime (including through channel creation/ditch modification)
to favor certain vegetation types
CG, CP
Restore tidal connections (e.g., remove tidal restrictions) in the near term, with awareness
that negative effects could arise under climate change
SG, CB
Control invasive species (e.g., Phragmites)
CG
Conduct activities to control erosion, (e.g., create "no wake zones" to reduce marsh edge
erosion from boat wakes)
SP
Plant oysters for habitat, filtering of pollutants and erosion control.
SP, CG
Work with programs responsible for protecting coastal infrastructure to ensure that marsh
protection is included in management plans (i.e., take advantage of capacity of marshes to
buffer infrastructure against coastal storms and sea level rise)
SP, CG
Conduct education and outreach to promote good practices for marsh management
SB, SP,
CG
Avoid potential maladaptations (e.g., placement of dikes that result in an unintentional
magnification of erosion effects on adjacent salt marshes)
SP
Where change is unavoidable, manage and sustain new habitats that are created when others
are wiped out (e.g., when mudflats replace low marsh areas)
SG, SP,
CG
This document is a draft for review purposes only and does not constitute Agency policy.
T-10 DRAFT— DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE
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Table 3-1. Sediment Retention group crosswalk for comparison of influence type and degree, sensitivity and relative
impact for current conditions and climate scenarios. NA = No agreement; Prop = Proportional; Disprop =
Disproportional; L = Low sensitivity; I = Intermediate sensitivity; H = High sensitivity; H-trend = No agreement but
trending toward high sensitivity; t = Increasing relative impact from current; () = Number of respondents; Ranking
column orders the influences according to completeness of information
CURRENT
CLIMATE A
CLIMATE B
Influence
Variable X
on
Variable Y
Influence
Sensitivity
Relative
Impact
Influence
Sensitivity
Relative
Impact
Influence
Sensitivity
Relative
Impact
Ranking
L
Storms
on
Marsh Edge
Erosion
Direct
prop (4)
1(4)
Secondary
Direct
prop (4)
1(4)
Secondary
Direct
prop (5)
1(4)
Secondary
1
J
Marsh High
Water Level
on
Coastal and
Nearshore
Erosion
Direct
disprop
strong (4)
I(4)/H(4)
Primary
Direct
disprop
strong (4)
H (4)
Primary
Direct
disprop
strong (5)
H (4)
Primary
1
O
Freshwater
Flow
on
Nutrient Inputs
Direct
prop (5)
1(5)
Secondary
Direct
prop (4)
1(4)
Secondary
Direct
prop (4)
1(4)
Secondary
1
W
Sediment
Supply
on
Sediment
Deposition /
Retention
Direct
prop (6)
1(5)
Primary
Direct
prop (7)
1(6)
Primary
Direct
prop (6)
1(6)
Primary
1
Y
Sediment
Deposition /
Retention
on
Inundation
Regime
Inverse
prop (5)
1(5)
Secondary
Inverse
prop (4)
1(4)
Secondary
Inverse
prop (4)
1(4)
Secondary
1
DD
Sediment
Deposition /
Retention
on
Net Accretion
Direct
prop (6)
1(7)
Primary
Direct
prop (6)
1(7)
Primary
Direct
prop (7)
1(7)
Primary
1
FF
Below
Ground
Biomass
on
Net Accretion
Direct
prop (7)
1(7)
Primary
Direct
prop (5)
1(5)
Primary
Direct
prop (5)
1(5)
Primary
1
B
Marsh High
Water Level
on
Inundation
Regime
Direct
prop (6)
1(5)
Primary
Direct
prop (5)
1(5)
1
Direct
prop (6)
1(5)
1
1
C
Storms
on
Inundation
Regime
Direct
prop (5)
1(5)
Primary
Direct
prop (6)
1(6)
Primary
Direct
prop (5)
NA
Primary
2
R
Tidal
Exchange
on
Inundation
Regime
Direct
prop (6)
1(6)
Primary
Direct
prop (5)
1(5)
Primary
Direct (6)
1(4)
Primary
2
AA
Marsh Edge
Erosion
on
Sediment
Deposition /
Retention
NA
1(5)
Secondary
Inverse
prop (4)
1(5)
Secondary
[threshold]
Inverse
prop (4)
1(5)
Secondary
[threshold]
2
E
Nutrient
Inputs
on
Below Ground
Biomass
Direct (4)
1(4)
Primary
Inverse
(5)
1(4)
Primary
[threshold]
Inverse
(5)
1(4)
1
[threshold]
3
This document is a draft for review purposes only and does not constitute Agency policy.
T-11 DRAFT— DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE
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CURRENT
CLIMATE A
CLIMATE B
Influence
Variable X
on
Variable Y
Influence
Sensitivity
Relative
Impact
Influence
Sensitivity
Relative
Impact
Influence
Sensitivity
Relative
Impact
Ranking
I
Storms
on
Freshwater
Flow
Direct
prop (6)
1(5)
Secondary
Direct
prop (5)
1(4)
Secondary
Direct (7)
NA
Secondary
3
K
Storms
on
Coastal and
Nearshore
Erosion
Direct
prop (5)
1(5)
Primary
Direct
prop (4)
1(4)
Primary
Direct (7)
NA
Primary
3
Q
Coastal and
Nearshore
Erosion
on
Sediment
Supply
Direct
prop (6)
1(4)
Primary
Direct
prop (5)
1(4)
Primary
Direct (6)
NA
Primary
3
V
Surface
Roughness
on
Sediment
Deposition /
Retention
Direct
prop (5)
1(5)
Primary
Direct (6)
1(4)
Primary
Direct (5)
1(4)
1
3
EE
Net Accretion
on
Sediment
Deposition /
Retention
Inverse
prop (5)
1(6)
Inverse
prop (4)
1(7)
Direct
prop (4)
1(7)
[threshold]
3
A
Land Cover:
% Impervious
Cover
on
Nutrient Inputs
Direct
prop (5)
1(4)
Direct
prop (5)
1(5)
Direct
prop (5)
1(4)
4
F
Altered
Flows: Tidal
Restrictions
on
Tidal Exchange
Inverse
(4)
1(5)
Primary
Inverse
(4)
1(5)
Primary
Inverse
(4)
1(5)
Primary
4
H
Land Cover:
% Impervious
Cover
on
Freshwater
Flow
Direct
prop (4)
1(5)
Secondary
Direct (7)
NA
Secondary
Direct (7)
NA
Secondary
5
P
Freshwater
Flow
on
Sediment
Supply
Direct
prop (6)
1(5)
Secondary
Direct (7)
NA
Secondary
Direct (7)
NA
Secondary
5
CC
Below
Ground
Biomass
on
Sediment
Deposition /
Retention
Direct
prop (4)
1(5)
Secondary
Direct (4)
NA
1
Primary
Direct (5)
NA
1
Secondary
5
M
Coastal and
Nearshore
Erosion
on
Tidal Exchange
Direct (6)
L (4)
Very little
impact
Direct (4)
NA
Very little
impact
Direct (5)
NA
Very little
impact
6
Z
Inundation
Regime
on
Sediment
Deposition /
Retention
NA
1(6)
Primary
[threshold]
NA
1(7)
Primary
[threshold]
NA
1(7)
Primary
[threshold]
6
D
Nutrient
Inputs
on
Net Accretion
Inverse
(5)
NA
Secondary
Inverse
(4)
NA
Secondary
Inverse
(4)
NA
Secondary
7
This document is a draft for review purposes only and does not constitute Agency policy.
T-12 DRAFT—DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE
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CURRENT
CLIMATE A
CLIMATE B
Influence
Variable X
on
Variable Y
Influence
Sensitivity
Relative
Impact
Influence
Sensitivity
Relative
Impact
Influence
Sensitivity
Relative
Impact
Ranking
BB
Inundation
Regime
on
Below Ground
Biomass
NA
1(4)
[threshold]
NA
1(4)
[threshold]
NA
1(4)
[threshold]
8
G
Altered
Flows: Tidal
Restrictions
on
Freshwater
Flow
No
Influence
(4)
No
Influence
(4)
No
Influence
(4)
No
Influence
(4)
No
Influence
(4)
No
Influence
(4)
9
S
Inundation
Regime
on
Surface
Roughness
NA
NA
Primary
NA
NA
Primary
NA
NA
Primary
9
T
Freshwater
Flow
on
Inundation
Regime
Direct (5)
NA
Direct (5)
NA
Direct (5)
NA
9
U
Freshwater
Flow
on
Surface
Roughness
NA
NA
Secondary
NA
NA
Secondary
NA
NA
Secondary
9
N
Tidal
Exchange
on
Nutrient Inputs
Inverse
(4)
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
10
X
Inundation
Regime
on
Sediment
Supply
Direct (4)
NA
Uncertain
impact
NA
NA
Uncertain
impact
NA
NA
Uncertain
impact
10
This document is a draft for review purposes only and does not constitute Agency policy.
T-13 DRAFT—DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE
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Table 3-2. Community Interactions group crosswalk for comparison of influence type and degree, sensitivity and
relative impact for current conditions and climate scenarios. NA = No agreement; Prop = Proportional; Disprop =
Disproportional; L = Low sensitivity; I = Intermediate sensitivity; H = High sensitivity; H-trend = No agreement but
trending toward high sensitivity; t = Increasing relative impact from current; () = Number of respondents; Ranking
column orders the influences according to completeness of information
CURRENT
CLIMATE A
CLIMATE B
Influence
Variable X
on
Variable Y
Influence
Sensitivity
Relative
Impact
Influence
Sensitivity
Relative
Impact
Influence
Sensitivity
Relative
Impact
Ranking
B
Sea Level
on
Inundation
Regime
Direct
prop (6)
1(6)
Primary
Direct
prop (5)
1(4)
Direct
prop (5)
1(4)
1
C
Freshwater Flow
on
Salinity
Inverse
prop (5)
1(5)
Primary
Inverse
prop (5)
1(5)
Inverse
prop (5)
1(5)
1
E
Land Use / Land
Cover:
Residential
Development
on
Freshwater Flow
Direct
prop (6)
1(6)
Primary
Direct
prop (6)
1(7)
Direct
prop (6)
1(6)
1
M
Nitrogen
on
Above Ground
Plant Biomass
Direct
prop (6)
1(6)
Primary
Direct
prop (5)
1(5)
Direct
prop (5)
1(5)
1
O
Inundation
Regime
on
Ratio Low
Marsh to High
Marsh
Direct
prop (6)
1(6)
Interactive
withR
Direct
prop (7)
1(7)
1
Direct
prop (5)
1(5)
1
1
R
Nitrogen
on
Ratio Low
Marsh to High
Marsh
Direct
prop (4)
1(4)
Interactive
withO
Direct
prop (4)
1(4)
Direct
prop (4)
1(4)
1
S
Nitrogen
on
Ratio of Native
High Marsh to
Phragmites
Inverse
prop (5)
1(7)
Interactive
with V
Inverse
prop (6)
1(6)
Inverse
prop (5)
1(5)
1
D
Freshwater Flow
on
Inundation
Regime
Direct
disprop
weak (4)
L (4)
Direct
disprop
weak (4)
L (4)
Direct
disprop
weak (4)
L (4)
2
L
Inundation
Regime
on
Sedimentation
Direct
prop (6)
1(6)
Direct
prop (6)
1(6)
1
Direct
prop (5)
NA
1
2
P
Inundation
Regime
on
Saltmarsh
Sharp-Tailed
Sparrow Nesting
Habitat
Inverse (7)
NA
Primary
Inverse
prop (4)
1(4)
Inverse
prop (4)
1(4)
2
This document is a draft for review purposes only and does not constitute Agency policy.
T-14 DRAFT— DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE
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CURRENT
CLIMATE A
CLIMATE B
Influence
Variable X
on
Variable Y
Influence
Sensitivity
Relative
Impact
Influence
Sensitivity
Relative
Impact
Influence
Sensitivity
Relative
Impact
Ranking
Q
Sedimentation
on
Marsh Elevation
Direct
prop (7)
1(7)
Direct
prop (6)
1(6)
Direct
prop (6)
1(6)
2
U
Above Ground
Plant Biomass
on
Sedimentation
Direct
prop (6)
1(6)
Direct
prop (6)
1(6)
Direct
prop (5)
1(4)
2
V
Salinity
on
Ratio of Native
High Marsh to
Phragmites
Direct
prop (6)
1(6)
Interactive
with S
Direct
prop (6)
1(5)
1
Direct (6)
NA
1
2
CC
Below Ground
Plant Biomass
on
Marsh Elevation
Direct
prop (5)
1(5)
Direct
prop (4)
1(4)
Direct
prop (4)
1(4)
2
EE
Ratio of Native
High Marsh to
Phragmites
on
Marsh Elevation
Inverse
disprop
weak (4)
L (4)
Inverse (5)
1(4)
[threshold]
Inverse (5)
1(4)
[threshold]
3
A
OMWM
on
Inundation
Regime
Direct
prop (5)
1(5)
Primary
Direct (4)
NA
Direct (4)
NA
4
DD
Tidal
Restrictions
on
Inundation
Regime
Inverse
prop (4)
1(5)
Primary
NA
1(4)
NA
1(4)
4
K
Inundation
Regime
on
Nitrogen
Direct
prop (5)
1(5)
Direct
prop (5)
1(6)
NA
NA
5
G
Land Use / Land
Cover:
Residential
Development
on
Ratio of Native
High Marsh to
Phragmites
Inverse (4)
1(4)
Inverse (4)
NA
Inverse (4)
1(4)
6
N
Inundation
Regime
on
Salinity
NA
1(4)
Primary
NA
1(4)
NA
1(4)
6
Y
Marsh Elevation
on
Ratio Low
Marsh to High
Marsh
Inverse
prop (4)
1(4)
Inverse (4)
NA
Inverse (4)
NA
6
AA
Marsh Elevation
on
Saltmarsh
Sharp-Tailed
Sparrow Nesting
Habitat
Direct (7)
NA
Primary
Direct (6)
NA
Direct (6)
NA
6
BB
Ratio Low Marsh
to High Marsh
on
Saltmarsh
Sharp-Tailed
Sparrow Nesting
Habitat
Inverse (5)
1(5)
Some
NA
1(5)
NA
1(5)
6
This document is a draft for review purposes only and does not constitute Agency policy.
T-15 DRAFT—DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE
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CURRENT
CLIMATE A
CLIMATE B
Influence
Variable X
on
Variable Y
Influence
Sensitivity
Relative
Impact
Influence
Sensitivity
Relative
Impact
Influence
Sensitivity
Relative
Impact
Ranking
J
Inundation
Regime
on
Above Ground
Plant Biomass
NA
NA
NA
1(4)
1
Interactive
withH
Inverse (5)
NA
1
Interactive
withH
[threshold]
7
T
Nitrogen
on
Below Ground
Plant Biomass
Inverse (4)
1(4)
Inverse (4)
NA
Inverse (4)
NA
7
F
Land Use / Land
Cover:
Residential
Development
on
Ratio Low
Marsh to High
Marsh
Direct (5)
NA
Direct (5)
NA
Direct (5)
NA
8
Z
Ratio Low Marsh
to High Marsh
on
Above Ground
Plant Biomass
Direct (6)
NA
Direct (6)
NA
Direct (4)
NA
8
FF
Ratio of Native
High Marsh to
Phragmites
on
Above Ground
Plant Biomass
NA
1(4)
NA
1(5)
NA
1(5)
8
X
Ratio of Native
High Marsh to
Phragmites
on
Ratio Low
Marsh to High
Marsh
NA
NA
Some
NA
NA
NA
NA
9
H
Soil Temperature
on
Above Ground
Plant Biomass
NA
NA
NA
NA
1
Interactive
with J
NA
NA
1
Interactive
with J
10
I
Soil Temperature
on
Below Ground
Plant Biomass
Inverse (4)
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
10
W
Salinity
on
Ratio Low
Marsh to High
Marsh
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
11
This document is a draft for review purposes only and does not constitute Agency policy.
T-16 DRAFT—DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE
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Table B-l. Sediment Retention breakout group participants, affiliations, and
qualifications
Name
Affiliation
Qualifications
Susan Adamowicz
Rachel Carson National
Wildlife Refuge
U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Land
Management Research Demonstration Biologist.
Expertise in salt marsh ecology, habitat
management, restoration, and tipping points.
Britt Argow
Wellesley College
Research on salt marsh and estuarine
sedimentology, geomorphology, and hydrology.
Expertise in geosciences and coastal
sedimentology.
Chris Hein
Boston University
Research on inorganic sediment processes in
coastal systems. Expertise in coastal
sedimentology.
David Ralston
Woods Hole
Oceanographic
Institution
Research on fluid mechanics and scalar transport
in estuaries and the coastal systems. Expertise in
estuarine physics and sediment transport.
John Ramsey
Applied Coastal
Research and
Engineering Inc.
Serves on Climate Change Adaptation Advisory
Committee for Massachusetts, and has provided
consulting on coastal engineering projects.
Expertise in coastal processes and engineering.
Peter Rosen
Northeastern University
Research on coastal processes, geomorphology
and sedimentology. Developing a model for the
evolution of Boston Harbor Island shorelines in
response to rising sea levels. Expertise in coastal
geology.
John Teal
Woods Hole
Oceanographic
Institution
Research and consulting on coastal wetlands, salt
marsh restoration, submerged aquatic vegetation,
and nutrients. Currently involved with marsh
restoration in fresh, brackish and salt wetlands.
Expertise in wetlands ecology.
This document is a draft for review purposes only and does not constitute Agency policy.
T-17 DRAFT— DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE
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Table B-2. Community Interactions breakout group participants,
affiliations, and qualifications
Name
Affiliation
Areas of Expertise
Walter Berry
U.S. EPA Atlantic
Ecology Division
Research on human disturbance impacts on avian
species. Expertise in salt marsh ecology.
Robert Buchsbaum
Massachusetts
Audubon Society
Directs Massachusetts Audubon's Ecological
Inventory and Monitoring Project. Research on
coastal plant and animal species, nutrients, and
climate change. Expertise in salt marsh ecology.
Dave Burdick
University of New
Hampshire
Research on salt marsh restoration, invasive
species, and tidal restoration. Recent research on
Spartina patens and Phragmites australis.
Expertise in restoration ecology.
Michele Dionne
Wells National
Estuarine Research
Reserve
Research on aquatic habitats, marsh-estuarine
food web ecology, and wetland restoration.
Established monitoring protocols for restoration
projects in the New England region. Expertise in
aquatic, coastal, and salt marsh ecology.
David Johnson
Woods Hole Marine
Biological Laboratory
Research on aquatic species, nutrients, and salt
marsh habitat. Recent study on salt marsh infauna
and nutrient enrichment in Plum Island. Expertise
in salt marsh and invertebrate ecology.
Gregg Moore
University of New
Hampshire
Research on aquatic species, restoration ecology,
invasive species, and plant zonation. Recent
project comparing natural versus tidally restricted
salt marshes in Cape Cod. Expertise in coastal
wetland ecology.
Cathy Wigand
U.S. EPA Atlantic
Ecology Division
Research on plant species, nutrients, and human
disturbance impacts on salt marshes in New
England. Expertise in wetland ecology.
This document is a draft for review purposes only and does not constitute Agency policy.
T-18 DRAFT— DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE
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Table B-3. Example of expert elicitation handout for influences under current conditions (Sediment Retention group)
Instructions: Please assess the effect of X on Y by selecting the appropriate "degree of influence" and its associated "confidence".
Current Conditions
Variable X
Variable Y
Degree of influence
(Please select 0-13)
Confidence
(LH, LL, HH, HL)
Notes
Relationship A
Land Cover: %
Impervious Cover
on
Nutrient Inputs
Relationship B
Marsh High Water
Level
on
Inundation Regime
Relationship C
Storms
on
Inundation Regime
Relationship D
Nutrient Inputs
on
Net Accretion
Relationship E
Nutrient Inputs
on
Below Ground
Biomass
Relationship F
Altered Flows: Tidal
Restrictions
on
Tidal Exchange
Relationship G
Altered Flows: Tidal
Restrictions
on
Freshwater Flow
This document is a draft for re\'iew purposes only and does not constitute Agency policy.
T-19 DRAFT— DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE
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Table B-4. Example of expert elicitation handout for influences under climate scenarios (Community Interactions
group)
Instructions: Please assess the effect of X on Y by selecting the appropriate "degree of influence" and its associated "confidence".
Climate Scenario A
Climate Scenario B
Variable X
Variable Y
Degree of influence
(Please select 0-13)
Confidence
(LH, LL, HH,
HL)
Degree of influence
(Please select 0-13)
Confidence
(LH, LL, HH,
HL)
Notes
Relationship A
OMWM
on
Inundation Regime
Relationship B
Sea Level
on
Inundation Regime
Relationship C
Freshwater Flow
on
Salinity
Relationship D
Freshwater Flow
on
Inundation Regime
Relationship E
Land Use / Land Cover:
Residential Development
on
Freshwater Flow
Relationship F
Land Use / Land Cover:
Residential Development
on
Ratio Low Marsh to
High Marsh
Relationship G
Land Use / Land Cover:
Residential Development
on
Ratio of Native High
Marsh to Phragmites
This document is a draft for re\'iew purposes only and does not constitute Agency policy.
T-20 DRAFT— DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE
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Table B-5. Example of expert elicitation handout for interactive influences under climate scenarios (Sediment Retention
group)
Instructions: Please assess the effect of X on Y with Z by selecting the appropriate "interactive influence" and its associated "confidence".
Climate Scenario A
Climate Scenario B
Variable X
on
Variable Y
with
Variable Z
Interactive
Influence
Confidence
(LH, LL,
HH, HL)
Interactive
Influence
Confidence
(LH, LL,
HH, HL)
Notes
Example 1:
Relationship
B+C
Marsh High
Water Level
on
Inundation
Regime
with
Storms
Example 2:
Relationship
G+H
Altered Flows:
Tidal
Restrictions
on
Freshwater
Flow
with
Land Cover: %
Imper\'ious
Cover
This document is a draft for re\'iew purposes only and does not constitute Agency policy.
T-21 DRAFT— DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE
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Salt Marsh
Sediment Retention
The balance between tlie processes of lemoval and
deposition of sediment
Community Interactions;
Saltmarsh Sharp-Tailed Sparrow Nesting Habitat
Relationship between native Spar firm species oompaied
to invasiveP//7Vjg?m'w.s for Saltimisii Sliaip-tailed
Sparrow nestrng habitat
Figure ES-1. Selected ecosystem processes for the pilot vulnerability
assessment.
This document is a draft for review purposes only and does not constitute Agency policy.
F-l DRAFT— DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE
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Marsh High
Water Level
Tidal
Restrictions
% Impervious
Cover
Nutrient
Inputs
Storms
Tidal
Exchange
Coastal and
Nearshore
Erosion
Sediment
Supply
*
Freshwater
Flow
Marsh Edge
Erosion
Surface
Roughness
Sediment
Deposition /
Retention
Inundation
Regime
Below Ground
Biomass
Net Accretion
Key
~
A
Increasing relative impact
Increasing sensitivity
Threshold
Figure ES-2. Top pathways for management of the Sediment Deposition/
Retention endpoint. Colors are used to distinguish different pathways. Red
symbols highlight potential changes under future climate conditions.
This document, is a draft for review purposes only and does not constitute Agency policy.
F-2 DRAFT— DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE
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Open Marsh
Water
Management
Freshwater
Flow
Tidal
Restrictions
Residential
Development
Soil
Temperature
-'-'-/Kk
Inundation
Regime
Sea Level
Sedimentation
Above Ground
Plant Biomass
Nitrogen
Below Ground
Plant Biomass
Ratio of Native
High Marsh to
Phragmites
Salinity
Marsh
Elevation
Ratio Low Marsh to
High Marsh
Saltmarsh
Sharp-Tailed
Sparrow Nesting
Habitat
Increasing relative impact
A Threshold
Figure ES-3. Top pathways for management of the Saltmarsh Sharp-Tailed
Sparrow Nesting Habitat endpoint. Colors are used to distinguish different
pathways. Red symbols highlight potential changes under future climate
conditions.
This document, is a draft for review purposes only and does not constitute Agency policy.
F-3 DRAFT— DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE
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<
¦3
4> A
a
a
<
U
H
Scoping
f Selection of Key
Management Goals
Selection of Focal
Ecosystems
Selection of Ecosystem
Processes
Development of
V. Conceptual Models
"§ J" Development of
a, L Climate Scenarios
a
<
fS
ri f Development of Expert
^lElicitation Exercise
pa
¦3
=
as
a
<
Pre-Workshop
f Selection of Workshop
Participants
Development of "Straw
Man" Influence
Diagrams
Pre-Workshop Briefing
and Homework
Assignment
Development of
Consolidated Influence
V Diagrams
pa
¦3
=
-------
Sediment
Deposition/
Retention
Freshwater
Flow
Sediment
Supply
Inundation
Regime
Net Accretion
Coastal and
Nearshore
Erosion
% Impervious
Cover
Land Cover:
Altered Flows:
Tidal
Restrictions
Figure 2-1. Simplified influence diagram for sediment retention.
This document is a draft for review purposes only and does not constitute Agency policy.
F-5 DRAFT— DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE
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c
Land Cover:
Altered Flows:
Nutrient
% Impervious
Cover
Tidal
Restrictions
Inputs
Marsh High
Water Level
Storms
Tidal
Exchange
Freshwater
Flow
Sediment
Supply
Coastal and
Nearshore
Erosion
Marsh Edge
Erosion
Surface
Roughness
"AA
Sediment
Deposition /
Retention
Inundation
Regime
CC
DD
BB
Below Ground
Biomass
Net Accretion
Figure 2-2. Sediment Retention group influence diagram.
This document is a draft for review purposes only and does not constitute Agency policy.
F-6 DRAFT— DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE
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Land Cover:
Altered Flows:
Nutrient
Inputs
% Impervious Cover
Tidal
Restrictions
Marsh High
Water Level
Storms
Tidal Exchange
Freshwater Flow
Sediment Supply
Coastal and
Nearshore
Erosion
Marsh Edge
Erosion
Surface
Roughness
AA
Sediment
Deposition /
Retention
Inundation
Regime
CC
DD
BB
Below Ground
Biomass
Net Accretion
Key
Low sensitivity
-~ Intermediate sensitivity
High sensitivity
No agreement
-~ No influence
Figure 2-3. Sediment Retention group summary influence diagram of
sensitivities under current conditions.
This document, is a draft for review purposes only and does not constitute Agency policy.
F-7 DRAFT— DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE
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Current
Scenario A
Scenario B
Key
Low sensitivity
~ Intermediate sensitivity
~ High sensitivity
Intermediate-to-high trend
No agreement
Figure 2-4. Sediment Retention group summary influence diagrams of
sensitivities: variance across current conditions and two climate scenarios.
This document, is a draft for review purposes only and does not constitute Agency policy.
F-8 DRAFT— DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE
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Land Cover:
Altered Flows:
Nutrient
% Impervious Cover
Tidal Restrictions
Inputs
Marsh High
Water Level
Storms
Tidal Exchange
Freshwater Flow
Sediment Supply
Coastal and
Nearshore
Erosion
Marsh Edge
Erosion
Surface
Roughness
AA
Sediment
Deposition /
Retention
Inundation
Regime
CC
DD
BB
Below Ground
Biomass
Net Accretion
Key
Primary impact
Secondary impact
^ Very little impact
Figure 2-5. Sediment Retention influences indicated as having high relative
impact under current conditions.
This document, is a draft for review purposes only and does not constitute Agency policy.
F-9 DRAFT— DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE
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Current
Scenario A
Scenario B
Key
Increased impact under climate scenarios
Primary impact
Secondary impact
Very little impact
Figure 2-6. Sediment Retention influences indicated as having high relative
impact: variance across current conditions and two climate scenarios.
This document, is a draft for review purposes only and does not constitute Agency policy.
F-10 DRAFT— DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE
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¦ Current
Climate A
Climate B
None
Figure 2-7. Sediment Retention group confidence results for all influences;
HIT = High evidence, High agreement; III. = High evidence, Low agreement;
LH = Low evidence, High agreement; LL = Low evidence, Low agreement.
This document, is a draft for review purposes only and does not constitute Agency policy.
F-11 DRAFT— DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE
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DD
CC
Saltmarsh Sharp-
Tailed Sparrow
Nesting Habitat
AA
BB
Inundation
Regime
Sea Level
OMWM
Salinity
Above Ground
Plant Biomass
Below Ground
Plant Biomass
Tidal
Restrictions
Marsh
Elevation
Soil
Temperature
Freshwater Flow
Ratio of Native High
Marsh to Phragmites
Ratio Low Marsh to
High Marsh
Land Use / Land Cover:
Residential
Development
Sedimentation
Nitrogen
Figure 2-8. Community Interactions group influence diagram.
This document is a draft for review purposes only and does not constitute Agency policy.
F-12 DRAFT— DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE
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I
Land Use / Land Cover:
Residential
Development
Freshwater Flow
Tidal
Restrictions
OMWM
Soil
Temperature
DD
Sedimentation
Inundation
Regime
Nitrogen
Above Ground
Plant Biomass
Sea Level
Below Ground
Plant Biomass
Salinity
Ratio of Native High
Marsh to Phragmites
CC
Marsh
Elevation
Ratio Low Marsh to
High Marsh
Saltmarsh Sharp-
Tailed Sparrow
Nesting Habitat
AA
BB
Key
Low sensitivity
Intermediate sensitivity
—~ High sensitivity
Intermediate-to-high trend
No agreement
Figure 2-9. Community Interactions group summary influence diagram of
sensitivities under current conditions.
This document, is a draft for review purposes only and does not constitute Agency policy.
F-13 DRAFT— DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE
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Current
Scenario A
Scenario B
i
Key
Low sensitivity
~ Intermediate sensitivity
~ High sensitivity
Intermediate-to-high trend
No agreement
Figure 2-10. Community Interactions group summary influence diagrams of
sensitivities: variance across current conditions and two climate scenarios.
This document, is a draft for review purposes only and does not constitute Agency policy.
F-14 DRAFT—DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE
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Current
Future
1
\ \
j\
Key
Primary impact
Interactive influence of high impact
Some agreement on impact, but no consensus
Interactive influence impact increased under climate scenarios
Influence impact increased under climate scenarios
Figure 2-11. Community Interactions group influences indicated as having
high relative impact under current conditions and the climate scenarios.
This document, is a draft for review purposes only and does not constitute Agency policy.
F-15 DRAFT— DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE
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140
120
100
80
60
40
20
I Current
Climate A
Climate B
HH
HL
LH
LL
None
Figure 2-12. Community Interactions group confidence results for all
influences; HH = High evidence, High agreement; III. = High evidence, Low
agreement; LH = Low evidence, High agreement; LL = Low evidence, Low
agreement.
This document, is a draft for review purposes only and does not constitute Agency policy.
F-16 DRAFT— DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE
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Influence Type
Sensitivity
Relative Impact
AA
Sediment
Deposition
/ Retention
Storms
Marsh Edge
Erosion
AA
Sediment
Deposition
/ Retention
Storms
Marsh Edge
Erosion
AA
Sediment
Deposition
/ Retention
Storms
Marsh Edge
Erosion
Future
AA
Sediment
Deposition
/ Retention
Storms
Marsh Edge
Erosion
(Threshold)
AA
(Threshold)
AA
Sediment
Deposition
/ Retention
Sediment
Deposition
/ Retention
Storms
Storms
Marsh Edge
Erosion
Marsh Edge
Erosion
< Inverse
No agreement
Thickness denotes degree: all are proportional
¦ Intermediate sensitivity
Secondary impact
Figure 3-1. Sediment Retention example pathway. Future = Climate Scenario B.
This document is a draft for review purposes only and does not constitute Agency policy.
F-17 DRAFT— DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE
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Influence Type
Sensitivity
Relative Impact
Current
Future
Freshwater
, E
Flow
Freshwater
Flow
Residential Development
Residential Development
Inundation
Regime
Inundation
Regime
Nitrogen
Nitrogen
Ratio of Native High
Marsh to Phragmites
Ratio of Native High
Marsh to Phragmites
Marsh
Elevation
Marsh
Elevation
Saltmarsh Sharp
Tailed Sparrow
Nesting Habitat
Saltmarsh Sharp
Tailed Sparrow
Nesting Habitat
Freshwater
Flow
Freshwater
Flow
Residential Development
Residential Development
Inundation
Regime
Inundation
Regime
Nitrogen
Nitrogen
Ratio of Native High
Marsh to Phragmites
Ratio of Native High
Marsh to Phragmites
EE
(Threshold)
Marsh
Elevation
Marsh
Elevation
Saltmarsh Sharp
Tailed Sparrow
Nesting Habitat
Saltmarsh Sharp
Tailed Sparrow
Nesting Habitat
Direct
Inverse
Direct, no agreement on degree
^ Inverse, no agreement on degree
^ No agreement
Thickness denotes degree: all are proportional or disproportional weak
Intermediate sensitivity
Low sensitivity
Intermediate-to-high trend
No agreement
Freshwater
Flow
- E
Residential Development
° ,r
Inundation
Regime
Nitrogen
Ratio of Native High
Marsh to Phragmites
Marsh
Elevation
Saltmarsh Sharp
Tailed Sparrow
Nesting Habitat
Freshwater
Flow
Residential Development
Inundation
Regime
Nitrogen
Ratio of Native High
Marsh to Phragmites
Marsh
Elevation
Saltmarsh Sharp
Tailed Sparrow
Nesting Habitat
Primary impact
Interactive impact (with Salinity)
Not identified as high relative impact
Figure 3-2. Community Interactions example pathway. Future = Climate Scenario B.
This document is a draft for re\'iew purposes only and does not constitute Agency policy.
F-18 DRAFT— DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE
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Marsh High
Water Level
Tidal
Restrictions
% Impervious
Cover
Nutrient
Inputs
Storms
Inverse
Effect, 1°
Direct > Inverse
Effect (Threshold),
j°A
Increasing Direct Effect, 2
Direct Effect, 2
Direct Effect, 2
,7
Direct Effect
Tidal
Exchange
Coastal and
Nearshore
Erosion
Sediment
Supply
*
Freshwater
Flow
Direct Effect, 1
Marsh Edge
Erosion
Surface
Roughness
Inverse > Strong Inverse
Effect (Threshold), 2
Sediment
Deposition /
Retention
Inundation
Regime
Direct > Inverse Effect
(Threshold), 1
Below Ground
Biomass
Inverse > Direct Effect
(Threshold)
Direct Effect. 1
Net Accretion
Figure 3-3. Key pathways for management of the Sediment Deposition/
Retention endpoint. Green, blue and purple colors are used to distinguish
different pathways. Red boxes highlight changes under future climate
conditions. 1° and 2° indicate primary and secondary relative impact under
current conditions. A indicates increasing relative impact under future
conditions. A threshold is where an effect under current conditions may shift
to an opposite or much stronger effect under future climate conditions.
Dashed lines indicate inconsistent agreement across scenarios of current and
future conditions.
This document is a draft for review purposes only and does not constitute Agency policy.
F-19 DRAFT— DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE
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Direct
Effect
Open Marsh
Water
Management
Freshwater
Flow
Tidal
Restrictions
Residential
Development
Soil
Temperature
Weak Direct
Effect
Inverse Effect
Inverse Effect
Direct > Inverse Effect
(Threshold) A
Direct Effect
Inundation
Regime
Sea Level
Sedimentation
Above Ground
Plant Biomass
Nitrogen
Direct Effect
Direct Effect
Inverse Effect
Below Ground
Plant Biomass
Direct Effect
Ratio of Native
High Marsh to
Phragmites
Salinity
Direct Effect*A
Marsh
Elevation
Weak inverse >
Inverse Effect
(Threshold)
Ratio Low Marsh to
High Marsh
Direct Effect
Saltmarsh
Sharp-Tailed
Sparrow Nesting
Habitat
Figure 3-4. Key pathways for management of the Saltmarsh Sharp-tailed
Sparrow nesting habitat endpoint. Purple, blue and green colors are used to
distinguish different pathways. Red boxes highlight changes under future
climate conditions. * indicates high relative impact under current conditions.
A indicates increasing relative impact under future conditions. A threshold is
where an effect under current conditions may shift to an opposite or much
stronger effect under future climate conditions. Dashed lines indicate
inconsistent agreement across scenarios of current and future conditions.
This document, is a draft for review purposes only and does not constitute Agency policy.
F-20 DRAFT— DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE
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1
Climate
Drivers
Changes in Air
Temperature
^ Changes in
Precipitation
Sea Level Rise
Changes in Storm
Climatology and Wind
Changes in Wat
Temperatur
Sedimentation
and Erosion
Changes in
Salinity
Flooding
"X.
""N.
utants
Other
Altered
Flows
Land Use/Lan
Cover Change
Human U se
""v.
Invasive
Species
Community
Interactions
Primary
Productivity
Nutrient
Cycling
Water
Purification
Sediment
Retention
Water
Retention
Indicators
Species
Population Size
Biomass
Freshwater
Inflow
Invertebrate
Index
Water Quality
Standards
Extent of
Aquatic Habitat
Sediment
Quantity
Figure A-l. Salt Marsh Conceptual Model.
This document is a draft for re\>iew purposes only and does not constitute Agency policy.
F-21 DRAFT— DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE
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Climate
Drivers
1
Changes in Air
Temperature
Changes in
Precipitation
Changes in Storm
Climatology and Wind
Sea Level Rise
Sediment
Retention
Species Population Size
Abundance of native species (e.g.,
Spartina alterniflora, reported as % of
Metrics ground cover for a particular plot)
Abundance of invasive species (e.g.,
Phragmites australis, reported as % of
ground cover for a particular plot)
Freshwater Inflow
Flow volume (daily average cfs)
Salinity (psu)
Sediment Quantity
Total suspended sediment (mg/L)
Rate of erosion (mm/yr)
Extent of Aquatic Habitat
Area (acres or km2) of high or low marsh
Figure A-2. Sediment Retention sub-model.
Sedimentation
and Erosion
Flooding 5--
Other Human Uses
Dredging and dredge disposal:
o Frequency, location and extent of dredging
Boating/shipping:
o Frequency and degree of wake disturbances
Altered Flows
Upstream water diversions and controls:
o Change in peak (max or min) flow volume,
o Change in flow variability
Land Use / Land Cover Change
Increase in impervious cover:
Area or % change in impervious cover
o Land conversion
o Area or % change in land use classification
/
This document is a draft for re\'iew purposes only and does not constitute Agency policy.
F-22 DRAFT— DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE
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I 1
Climate I
Drivers
Community Interactions
Saltmarsh sharp-
tailed sparrow
Spartina patens
Phragmites australis
Spartina alterniflora
Indicators
Metrics
Species Population Size
Abundance of each above
plant species, as % of ground
cover
Abundance of saltmarsh
sparrow
Biomass
Plant density
Average plant
height
Above ground
biomass
Extent of estuarine habitat
Pinching index: Ratio of
width of Spartina
transects
Area (total acres or
hectares) of sparrow
habitat
Figure A-3. Community Interactions sub-model.
Floodin;
Frequency of flooding of adjacent
freshwatbo/vetlands/
Frequency obtundation from seaw.i
Pollutants
Altered Flows
o Mercury exposure
Changes in Storm
Climatology and Wind
Land Cover Change
Shoreline armoring
hard armoring/distance from shore to
armoring
Wetland disturbance
Increase in impervious cover:
o Area or % change in impervious cover
o Land conversion
Sedimentation and Erosion
Changes in Salinity
Location of mesohaline/oligohalihe transition
Frequency or % of time mesohaline
Sea Level Rise
Invasive Species
o Abundance of Phragmites
australis, as % of ground cover
o Average plant height
o Peak storm discharge into
marsh
X
o Peak storm discharge timing
Episodic storm driven erosion
Changes in Air
Temp
Changes in
Precipitation
This document is a draft for re\'iew purposes only and does not constitute Agency policy.
F-23 DRAFT— DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE
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Sediment
Deposition/
Erosion
Tides
Net Accretion
Freshwater
Flow
Sediment Supply
Vegetation
Productivity
Inundation
Regime
Altered Flows: Tidal
Restrictions
Land Use/Land Cover:
% Impervious Cover
Figure B-l. Sediment Retention "straw-man" influence diagram.
This document is a draft for review purposes only and does not constitute Agency policy.
F-24 DRAFT— DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE
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Saltmarsh Sharp-
Tailed Sparrow
Nesting Habitat
Nitrogen
Ratio Low Marsh to
High Marsh
Ratio of Native High
Marsh to
Phragmites
Land Use/Land Cover:
Residential
Development
Flooding
Figure B-2. Community Interactions "straw-man" influence diagram.
This document is a draft for review purposes only and does not constitute Agency policy.
F-25 DRAFT— DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE
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Current
Scenario A
Scenario B
Participant 1
Participant 2
Participant 3
~a
Participant 4
rnnipc
mi^nc
ji
k|
%
Key
Low sensitivity
~
No influence
~
Intermediate sensitivity Unknown
~a
High sensitivity
~
No answer
~
Figure B-3. Sediment Retention group summary influence diagrams of
sensitivities: variance across participants (continued on next page).
This document, is a draft for review purposes only and does not constitute Agency policy.
F-26 DRAFT— DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE
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Current
Scenario A
Scenario B
Participant 5
Participant 6
Participant 7
Key
Low sensitivity
~
No influence
~
Intermediate sensitivity Unknown
High sensitivity
~
No answer
~
Figure B-3 (cont). Sediment Retention group summary influence diagrams
of sensitivities: variance across participants.
This document, is a draft for review purposes only and does not constitute Agency policy.
F-27 DRAFT— DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE
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Current
Scenario A
Scenario B
Participant 1
Participant 2
Participant 3
Participant 4
Key
Low sensitivity No influence
~
Intermediate sensitivity Unknown
~
High sensitivity No answer
~ ~
Figure B-4. Community Interactions group summary influence diagrams of
sensitivities: variance across participants (continued on next page).
This document, is a draft for review purposes only and does not constitute Agency policy.
F-28 DRAFT— DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE
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Current Scenario A
No influence
~
Unknown
.>
No answer
~
Scenario B
Participant 5
Participant 6
Participant 7
Key
Low sensitivity
~
Intermediate sensitivity
~
High sensitivity
~
Figure B-4 (cont). Community Interactions group summary influence
diagrams of sensitivities: variance across participants.
This document, is a draft for review purposes only and does not constitute Agency policy.
F-29 DRAFT— DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE
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