AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF THE
BENEFITS AND COSTS OF THE CLEAN AIR ACT
1970 TO 1990
Revised Report
of Results and Findings
August 2001
(Appendices January 2002)
(Welfare Revisions August 2002)
Preparedfor the
National Center for Environmental Economics
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Washington, DC
By
Dale W. Jorgenson Associates
Cambridge, Massachusetts
Dale W. Jorgenson and Richard J. Goettle
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AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF THE
BENEFITS AND COSTS OF THE CLEAN AIR ACT
1970 TO 1990
Table of Contents
Executive Summary i
1. Introduction 1
2. Methodology 3
3. The Costs of Compliance 10
4. The Benefits from Compliance 16
5. Economic Performance and Welfare 21
Economic Performance 21
Welfare Considerations 26
6. Energy and the Environment 29
7. The Structure of Economic Activity 32
References 38
Appendices
Appendix A: Benefits: Sources, Methods and Data A. 1
Appendix B: Benefit Extensions to 2100: B.l
Analytical Alternatives
Appendix C: Benefits Extensions to 2100: Data C.l
Appendix D: Compliance Costs: D.l
Sources, Methods and Data
Appendix E: Figures from Text E.l
Full Page Landscape
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Executive Summary
The Clean Air Act and its subsequent amendments to 1990 were legislative initiatives designed
to improve air quality and reduce the adverse consequences of air pollution. As a result, they
imposed costs on producers and consumers as economic activities were brought into compliance
with their statutory requirements. However, they also secured improvements in air quality by
reducing the lead content in gasoline and pollutant emissions to the ambient atmosphere. In turn,
these lead to improvements in the health and well-being of the population. The analyses covered
in this report examine the consequences of these costs and benefits for overall economic
performance and welfare. They are based on the application of a multi-sector, inter-temporal
general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy. The approach taken is to develop a counter-
factual view of how the economy might have evolved had there been no Clean Air Act.
The costs arising from the Clean Air Act, analyzed absent of the economic benefits from
improvements m environmental quality, adversely affect economic performance. Real
consumption and income ultimately are one percent lower due to its enactment. The causes of
these effects are the policy's impact on capital formation and its impact on productivity at the
industry level. For compliance, a portion of each new dollar of invested capital now is devoted
to pollution abatement. In addition, capital and other resources are diverted from their
previously productive uses to the retrofitting of existing capital and to the operation and
maintenance ofboth new and existing capital, the latter being the productivity effect.
The benefits arising from the Clean Air Act, analyzed absent of cost co siderations, enhance
economic performance. Real consumption and income ultimately are almost three percent
higher in its presence. Here, the cause is principally the policy's favorable impact on reducing
the illnesses, intellectual costs and pre-mature deaths associated with air pollution. As these
directly affect the availability of labor inputs to production and the availability of consumers as
purchasers, the presence of the clean air act implies a larger economy from both the perspectives
of supply and demand.
In combining these effects, the Clean Air Act provides the economy undeniable net economic
benefits. Ultimately, real consumption and income are two percent higher than they would be
without its enactment. Initially, there are economic losses as the private costs of compliance
exceed the benefits of the avoided damages to life and health. However, there soon are annual
net benefits as the consequences of avoided deaths and work-loss days more than compensate the
long-run cost implications of the Act's provisions. By the mid-1990s, there are cumulative net
benefits that continue to grow as the time horizon is extended.
Over the simulation period and beyond, these net benefits accumulate to sizeable amounts. From
a welfare perspective (computed as present value equivalent variations and willingness-to-pay\
there are cumulative net gains of $(1990) 26.2 trillion. The benefits of the CAA far outweigh its
costs. Mortality benefits accumulate to $(1990) 21.1 trillion while the benefits associated with
morbidity and productivity improvements total $(1990) 6 8 trillion. Ccmpliance with the
provisions of the CAA entails a welfare loss of $(1990) 1.7 trillion in terms of the market values
of goods, services and leisure foregone.
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The Clean Air Act also has important implications for the structure of the U.S. economy and its
patterns of energy use. The sectors most affected by it are petroleum refining, motor vehicles
production and electric utilities. Lesser impacts are observed for mining, chemicals, primary
metals and gas utilities. In the presence of the Clean Air Act, the economy is much less
petroleum-, auto- and electric-intensive than it otherwise would be and much more coal- and gas-
intensive than it otherwise would be. The energy- and pollution-intensities of the economy are
significantly reduced through the Act's provisions. However, there is a major irony arising from
its enactment. Because the economy is larger in its presence, the levels of energy use and
(carbon) emissions are ultimately about 0.5 percent higher than they would be in absence of the
Act. Moreover, the carbon-intensity of fossil fuel use is higher under the Act due to the reduced
petroleum- and increased coal-intensity of the nation's energy-consuming capital stock.
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1. Introduction
This analysis examines the benefits and costs of the 1970 Clean Air Act (CAA) and its 1977
Amendments in an effort to determine an overall value of the policy's merits. Upon its passage,
the great bulk of the nation's energy-consuming capital stock was misaligned with the objectives
of improved air quality through reductions in lead content and emissions of criteria pollutants.
The enactment of the CAA imposed clear and tangible costs on producers and consumers as the
nation was forced to bring new and existing capital into compliance with the Act's provisions.
Its enactment also gave rise, perhaps less visible and immediate, to improvements in the health
and welfare of the U.S. citizenry and to benefits to the nation's ecological and economic systems.
As part of the 1990 CAA Amendments, Congress required the U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency (EPA) to conduct "periodic, scientifically reviewed studies to assess the benefits and
costs of the Clean Air Act (U.S. EPA, 1997)."
In 1993, Dale Jorgenson Associates reported on their detailed analyses of the economic costs
associated with compliance to the 1970 and 1977 act and amendments (Jorgenson, et. al., 1993).
Using a multi-sector, dynamic general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy, it was
determined that these enactments adversely affected economic performance. Real consumption
and income ultimately would have been one percent higher in their absence. The impacts on
producers were not uniform. Sectors like motor vehicles, petroleum refining and electric utilities
were most affected. Distributionally, for an infinitely-lived family of size four headed by a white
male, age 35-44, living in the urban Northeast, the willingness to pay for not having to absorb the
costs of compliance was estimated to be almost $(1990) 8,300 per household in present value
terms or 0.8 percent of lifetime consumption. This translates to an annual tax of $(1990) 230 per
household in perpetuity. Aggregating across all households, the estimated willingness to pay for
society as a whole was in the range of $(1990) 500 to 700 billion in terms of lifetime
consumption. Finally, the compliance costs were found to be regressive to income and
expenditure (Jorgenson, et. al., 1993). Two-thirds of these damages arose from the costs
associated with stationary sources of air pollution; the remaining one-third was related to the
costs arising from mobile source initiatives.
The analysis reported herein extends this earlier work. In particular, the aforementioned model,
absent of distributional considerations, is used to evaluate the estimated benefit stream arising
from the 1970 and 1977 act and amendments and to perform a net benefit analysis incorporating
the costs previously assessed. As before, the costs and benefits of the CAA were analyzed
independently. In turn, these were quantified in a manner that allows their introduction into the
modeling framework in appropriate ways so as to isolate and measure the policy's direct and
indirect consequences. As the model was estimated over an interval that encompasses the
enactment period, the method of analysis is to observe how the economy might have evolved had
there been no Clean Air Act and to provide measures of the consequences attendant to
compliance with it.
The remainder of this report is organized as follows. Section 2 provides a brief description of the
model employed in this analysis. Sections 3 and 4 discuss the costs and benefits of the CAA,
respectively. They also cover the manner in which the costs and benefits were introduced into
1
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the model. Sections 5, 6 and 7 present the simulation results. Section 5 focuses on the
macroeconomic impacts as measured by real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), consumption and
investment. The primary inputs of capital and labor also are discussed, as are the welfare
implications in terms of foregone consumption. Section 6 addresses the energy and
environmental impacts of the CAA at the aggregate level. Energy changes are examined in
terms of total fossil fuel use while environmental effects are evaluated in terms of the resulting
carbon emissions. Finally, Section 7 reports on the industry details as reflected in the prices paid
by producers and consumers and changes in the composition of domestic output.
2
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2. Methodology
The results of this analysis are based on simulations conducted with the Intertemporal General
Equilibrium Model or IGEM developed by Ho, Jorgenson and Wilcoxen. This is a multi-sector,
multi-period model of the U.S. economy. It is one of a class of models called computable
general equilibrium (CGE) models because it solves for the market-clearing prices and quantities
of each sector and market in each time period. The parameters (or coefficients) of the equations
in IGEM are estimated statistically from historical data spanning 50 years. The model consists
of 35 producing sectors, the household or consumer sector, a business investment sector, the
federal, state and local governments sector, and a foreign sector. Formal descriptions of the
methodology and its components are numerous and appear in Ho (1989), Jorgenson and Slesnick
(1985 and 1987), Jorgenson, etal. (1992) and Wilcoxen (1988).
In the IGEM model, production is disaggregated into 35 separate commodities produced by one
or more of 35 industries. The industries (see Table 2.1) generally match two-digit sectors in the
Standard Industrial Classification (SIC). Each industry or producing sector produces one
primary product and may produce one or more additional goods or services. Each producing
sector is modeled by a set of equations that fully represent possible substitutions among its inputs
or factors—i.e., capital, labor, non-competing imports, and the 35 commodities.
Within each producing sector, changes in input demand (i.e., substitutions) occur because
relative prices change, encouraging more or less use of that input. In addition, historical data
invariably reveal trends (or biases) in input use that are independent of input prices. This means
there is either increasing or decreasing input usage over time, even after accounting for the
changes arising from relative price incentives. For example, historical data may indicate that
particular industries are increasingly labor-saving, energy-saving, or capital-using over time,
independent of relative prices. The equations used to model production in IGEM account for
both price- and trend-related substitution effects. Industry-level productivity growth also is part
of the specification for each of the 3 5 producing sectors estimated statistically from observed
changes in input prices and observed technological trends.
These equations, along with others in the model, are organized in an inter-industry framework in
which the demands for and supplies of each commodity, as well as those of capital and labor,
must balance in terms of both quantity and value (i.e., price times quantity). The organization of
annual "use" and "make" tables is illustrated in Figure 2.1. These are "spreadsheets" at the
industry and commodity level of detail. The "cells" in each use table depict commodity
purchases (the rows) by each industry and final demand (the columns). The "cells" in each make
table show the commodities produced by each industry. Figure 2.1 also shows the inputs of
capital and labor into each producing and consuming sector.
Figure 2.2 depicts production and supply. Inputs of the 35 commodities plus capital, labor and
non-competing imports are combined to produce domestic industrial outputs. In turn, these
outputs are mapped into domestic commodity outputs through the use and make tables.
Combining the domestic commodities with competitive foreign imports gives rise to the
available supplies, which are purchased as intermediate inputs or finished goods (final demand).
3
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The model is solved iteratively until the prices of all commodities and inputs are such that
demand equals supply in all product and factor (input) markets. Model solutions depict, among
other things, all prices and quantities, the complete structure of inputs to production, and
industry-level rates of technological change. As a result, economy-wide changes in energy or
capital intensity, for example, are calculated by adding up industry-level details. There are none
of the so-called autonomous "economy-wide" energy efficiency improvements (i.e., assumed
declines in the amount of energy required to produce a given level of output over time, with
labor and capital unchanged), except those arising from the assumed continuation of independent
technological trends. (Experimentation has shown that these technological trends in the use of
such factors as energy or capital comprise around twenty percent of the overall adjustment to
new energy conditions, with substitution or relative price effects explaining the remaining eighty
percent [Jorgenson, et.al., \993]).
Household consumption by commodity is the result of a three-stage, multi-period decision
process (see Figure 2,3) involving price and demand equations like those of the producing
sectors. First, households decide their levels of "full consumption" over time. Full consumption,
comprising goods, services and leisure, is the amount of financial wealth "consumed" in each
period and is dependent on relative prices, current and future, and on the time path of interest
rates (both of which are known to households with perfect foresight). Financial wealth is the
(present) value of household capital wealth (private, government and foreign) and the household
time endowment.
The household time endowment is a population-based, monetary estimate of the amount of time
available to the working-age population (those 14 through 74 years old) for work and leisure. It
assumes that there are 14 hours per day of discretionary time for work and leisure with
appropriate allowances for weekends, holidays and hours spent in school. The time endowment
is evaluated at the prevailing wage or after-tax rate of labor compensation, including benefits and
is adjusted for quality (i.e., educational attainment and experience). Leisure is defined as the
uncompensated use of time (i.e., that portion of the 14 hours that people use for activities other
than paid work). (This is not the ideal measure of leisure in that it includes commuting, illness
and many other uses of time that would not be considered "leisure" in the usual sense of the
word. However, construction of a pure measure of leisure is probably beyond available data.)
Once households decide each period's full consumption, they then decide the split between the
consumption of goods and services and the demand for leisure. This decision is based on the
price of consumption relative to the wage rate (the opportunity cost, or price of leisure). When
households decide their leisure demand, they simultaneously determine their labor supply and, so
too, their labor income. Finally, households choose the allocation of total consumption among
capital, labor, and the various categories of goods and services. Like production, these stages of
household behavior are estimated statistically from historical data, and the equations capture
both price- and income-driven changes in observed spending patterns.
In the model, capital accumulation is the outcome of a series of decisions over time by
households and firms. Households and businesses determine the amount of saving available in
each period as the difference between their income and expenditures. Households and firms
4
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invest until the returns on additional investment are no longer greater than the cost of new capital
goods. Capital is assumed to be perfectly mobile across households and corporate and non-
corporate enterprises; in other words, capital flows to where it is needed. (In the real world,
there are, most likely, severe constraints on the near-term mobility of capital.) Investment is
structured according to a statistically estimated model allowing substitutions among different
types of capital goods. The total supply of capital at any time is fixed by the accumulated
investment in these capital goods.
Government purchases are calculated to balance the available government revenues and a
predetermined budget deficit. Government revenues arise by applying tax rates, both historical
and projected, to the levels of income and wealth generated by the model. The composition of
government spending - for example, spending on automobiles, computers, highways, schools,
and employees - is fixed by assumption.
Finally, the international exchange rate of the dollar against other currencies adjusts to bring net
exports (exports less imports) into line with a predetermined trade balance in goods and services.
This means that net foreign saving is insensitive to changes in U.S. prices and interest rates.
Imports are considered imperfect substitutes for similar domestic commodities and compete on
price, which in turn depends on the value of the relevant foreign currency. Export demands
depend on assumed foreign incomes and the foreign prices of U.S. exports, which, in turn, are
determined by domestic prices and the exchange rate.
The assumptions regarding the budget and trade deficits drive important aspects of the process of
capital formation. In combination, they imply that no "crowding-out" of private investment
occurs as a result of changes in investment by either the government or foreign sectors. Holding
the budget and trade deficits constant across simulations means that neither governments nor
foreigners influence the level of investment spending beyond what is assumed for the base case.
As a result, investment changes from one simulation to another depend entirely on changes in
saving by households and businesses.
On the supply side, overall economic growth in IGEM, as in the real world, arises from three
sources. These are productivity, accumulated capital, and the availability of labor. The model
itself determines two of these - productivity and capital. Productivity depends on emerging
trends in relative prices combined with the continuation of observed technological trends.
Capital accumulation occurs as a result of the saving and investment behavior of producers and
consumers. Labor supply is determined as households allocate their discretionary time between
work and leisure. All of these, therefore, are products of the model. U.S. population growth by
age, race, sex, and educational attainment is projected through 2050 using demographic
assumptions consistent with U.S. Social Security Administration forecasts; after 2050,
population is held constant. As indicated above, the population projection is used to calculate a
projection of the economy's "time endowment" in dollar terms by applying historical wage
patterns to estimates of the working-age population. Since the model largely determines
productivity and capital accumulation, these population projections effectively determine the size
of the economy in the distant future.
5
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Models are necessarily an abstraction of the environment they portray, and IGEM is no
exception. In characterizing the results from this methodology, three features merit
consideration. Two of these are assumptions, while the third derives from the source of the
model's parameters. First, as indicated above, consumers and producers in IGEM are assumed
to have perfect foresight and are able to react today to expected future price changes. This
means that they behave according to so-called "rational expectations." There are no surprises in
the form of price shocks. Since producers and consumers immediately plan for and adopt new
technologies, there are no losses associated with equipment becoming prematurely obsolete
when technology or relative prices change repeatedly. Second, capital income and the
corresponding stock of capital goods and services are assumed to be perfectly mobile among
industries, households, and governments. This implies that capital can migrate from sector to
sector with little or no adjustment cost. Moreover, there are no capacity shortages or supply-
demand imbalances associated with this migration. Instead, equipment is effortlessly
transformed into some other use.
Finally, the model parameters in IGEM are based on 50 years of historical data. Much has
changed in these 50 years and these parameters reflect and embody these changes. Hence, model
adjustments and reactions to changing economic conditions are based on observed long-term
trends and any short-run constraints on or lags in adjustment behavior that are part of this
history.
Taken together, these features imply that IGEM is more likely than other models are to produce
"best" case outcomes (least losses or greatest gains) when confronted with significant economic
changes. Households and businesses are fully aware of these changes through perfect foresight,
substitution possibilities are long-run in nature and occur quickly and easily, and capital readily
migrates and mutates to new uses. Conversely, myopia, inflexibility in production and
consumption, and low capital stock turnover are conditions that lead to "worst" case outcomes
(greatest losses or least gains). In comparing model estimates of the economy's response to
environmental policies, those from IGEM will appear less damaging (or, more beneficial) than
those from models in which there are more rigidities or higher adjustment costs.
6
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Table 2.1: Definitions of Industries-Commodities
Number
Description
1
Agriculture, forestry and fisheries
2
Metal mining
3
Coal Mining
4
Crude petroleum and natural gas extraction
5
Non-metallic mineral mining
6
Construction
7
Food and kindred products
1
Tobacco manufactures
9
Textile mill products
10
Apparel and other textile products
11
Lumber and wood products
12
Furniture and fixtures
13
Paper and allied products
14
Printing and publishing
15
Chemicals and allied products
16
Petroleum refining
17
Rubber and plastic products
18
Leather and leather products
19
Stone, clay and glass products
20
Primary metals
21
Fabricated metal products
22
Non-electrical machinery
23
Electrical machinery
24
Motor vehicles
25
Other transportation equipment
26
Instruments
27
Miscellaneous manufacturing
28
Transportation and warehousing
29
Communications
30
Electric utilities (services)
31
Gas utilities (services)
32
Wholesale and retail trade
33
Finance, insurance and real estate
34
Other personal and business services
35
Government enterprises
7
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Figure 2.1: Organization of the Use and Make Tables
Use table
Noncompeting Imports
Capital
Labor
Net Taxes
Rest of the World
s
<5
c
£
w
E
I
B
Q
ft
>
•e
Q*
§
21
tfi
e
e
£
5
H
M
o
a.
Value Added
To Final Demand
Total Industry Output
Total Final Demand
Make table
I
t
I
Total Commodity Output
S
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Figure 2.2: The Model Flows of Production and Commodity Supply
Energy
Intermediates
35
Intermediates
Non-energy
Intermediates
Domestic
Domestic
-»
Industry
Commodity
Capital
Labor
Output
Output
Non-competing
Imports
1
Competing
Imports
Total
Supply
Figure 2.3: The Model Flows of Household Behavior
Stage I Stage II Stage HI
I Total Income
4,
| Labor Supply |
| Labor Income |
4
Labor+
Capital Income
= Total Income
Thirty-five
Commodities
Capital
Labor
Non-competing
Imports
9
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3. The Costs of Compliance
The CAA compliance costs included in this analysis cover capital and operating and
maintenance (O&M) outlays for non-farm stationary sources. Recovered costs associated with
pollution control in manufacturing are subtracted from O&M outlays. Capital, maintenance and
fuel-related charges for mobile source air pollution control complete the compliance cost data.
The fuel-related charges for mobile sources combine the fuel price and fuel economy penalties
associated with lead-free gasoline. The compliance costs for government expenditures for
pollution abatement, research and development, and regulation and monitoring are not included
in these simulations as they have an almost negligible impact on the overall results. Private
R&D outlays also are omitted from consideration since there is no basis for allocating them to
specific industries or specific purchases. The sources of these data and the database of air
pollution control expenditures developed for this analysis are discussed in Jorgenson, et. al.
(1993) and EPA (1997). A summary of the aggregate cost information appears below in Table
3.1.
Table 3.1: The Direct Costs Of Compliance
Compliance Costs in Millions
Stationary Sources
Recovered
Mobile Sources
TOTAL
Capital
O&M
Costs
Capital
O&M&Fuel
Other
COSTS
1972
2,235
1973
3,050
1,436
199
276
1,765
836
7,164
1974
3,432
1,895
296
242
2,351
866
8,490
1975
4,016
2,240
389
1,570
2,282
897
10,616
1976
3,954
2,665
496
1,961
2,060
1,009
11,153
1977
4,008
3,223
557
2,248
1,786
1,174
11,882
1978
4,182
3,724
617
2,513
908
1,325
12,035
1979
4,898
4,605
750
2,941
1,229
1,448
14,371
1980
5,449
5,568
862
2,949
1,790
1,410
16,304
1981
5,586
6,123
997
3,534
1,389
1,348
16,983
1982
5,594
5,815
857
3,551
555
1,299
15,957
1983
4,577
6,292
822
4,331
-155
1,297
15,520
1984
4,698
6,837
870
5,679
-326
1,314
17,332
1985
4,469
7,186
768
6,387
337
1,488
19,099
1986
4,402
7,256
867
6,886
-1,394
1,548
17,831
1987
4,456
7,599
987
6,851
-1,302
1,594
18,211
1988
4,510
7,474
1,107
7,206
-1,575
1,670
18,178
1989
4,995
7,916
1,122
7,053
-1,636
1,788
18,994
1990
4,395
8,842
1,256
7,312
-1,816
1,542
19,019
Sources: Appendix A,
Jorgenson, et.
al. (1993) and Table A-8, EPA (1997). Costs prior to 1973 <
were determined
by linear interpolation, 1970 being zero.
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Annual CAA compliance costs average almost $15.0 billion over the period 1973-1990. Of this,
stationary source capital and net operating expenditures average $4.5 billion and $4.6 billion,
respectively. The total compliance costs for mobile sources account for over thirty percent of all
compliance costs or $4.5 billion of the average total expenditure. Government outlays and
private R&D expenditures average $1.3 billion, 1973-1990, and are not included in these
simulations. Government outlays are excluded because they are very small in magnitude and
their effects are negligible. Private R&D expenditures are excluded because there is no basis for
allocating them to specific industries or identifying the benefits arising from them. Thus, the
CAA costs omitted from consideration are about 15% of the costs for all stationary sources and
about 9% of total compliance costs.
Two points regarding the compliance cost series merit discussion. First, all non-mobile source
costs were based on U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
surveys and analyses through the early 1990's. In the mid-1990's, BEA published "final"
adjusted data on these cost series. For comparability to earlier analytical efforts, these final
series were not considered in this assessment. Second, the cost series above represent all air
pollution abatement expenditures, including those that would have occurred even in the absence
of the CAA. However, the benefit estimates reflect only the changes in air quality due to the
CAA, thus biasing any benefit-cost conclusions. It is known that industry incurred expenses for
air pollution control prior to 1970 and, presumably, would have continued to do so without the
Act's impetus. Unfortunately, there is no basis for isolating the costs only attributable to the
Clean Air Act. Accordingly, benefit-cost attributions remain so qualified.
The costs included for analysis average over four tenths of one percent of total domestic output
over the period 1973-1990. However, they are front-loaded, comprising over one-half of one
percent of total output in the early years and falling to three tenths of one percent by 1990. In
terms of disposable household income, the costs average just under six tenths of one percent
from 1973-1990.
As environmental regulations are imposed, investment funds are allocated to pollution control
activities. If the supply of savings is fixed and if expenditures on pollution control confer no
benefits beyond compliance with the law, then there is a loss in ordinary, productive capital
accumulation. This occurs for two reasons. First, there is a permanent loss due to the fact that
each new unit of capital has a pollution control component embodied in it. Second, there is a
transitory loss due to the need to bring existing capital into compliance.
To eliminate the capital portion of the CAA compliance costs, the percentage of air pollution
abatement investment in total investment first was determined. This then was split in order to
separate the windfall loss of having to install abatement equipment on old capital from the
permanent effect of the control equipment required for each new unit of capital. It was assumed
that the 1990 share of pollution control investment in total investment was a reasonable measure
of the permanent effect. This meant that the outfitting of old capital was largely achieved by
1990. This 1990 percentage then was deducted from the overall share of abatement investment
in total investment to determine the windfall loss accruing to the owners of existing sources.
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The permanent effect was introduced into IGEM as a reduction in the price of investment goods
This follows from the idea that under the CAA purchasers of capital goods had to buy a certain
amount of abatement capital in each unit of new productive capital, thereby increasing the price
of new capital goods.
The windfall or transitory effect was applied to the capital accumulation process. In each of the
transitory years, 1973-1989, the outlays on abatement equipment for existing sources were
returned to increase the ordinary capital formation that occurred that year.
These percentages for these effects are shown below in Table 3.2 and Figure 3.1. In 1975, for
example, 1.95 percent of total investment was devoted to pollution control equipment; of this
0.70 percent related to new capital (the permanent effect) while the remaining 1.25 percent
brought existing capital into compliance (the transitory effect).
Table 3.2:
Pollution Control Capital Expenditures
for Stationary Sources
as a Percent of Total Investment
Year
Pollution
Pollution
Control
Control
Comoonent
Comoonent
for New
for Existing
CaDital in
Capital in
Percent
Percent
1973
0.70
1.00
1974
0.70
1.00
1975
0.70
1.25
1976
0.70
1.09
1977
0.70
0.86
1978
0.70
0.65
1979
0.70
0.67
1980
0.70
0.71
1981
0.70
0.59
1982
0.70
0.62
1983
0.70
0.39
1984
0.70
0.27
1985
0.70
0.15
1986
0.70
0.14
1987
0.70
0.12
1988
0.70
007
1989
0.70
0.11
1990
0.70
0.00
12
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The operation and maintenance of air pollution control devices increases the factor input
requirements per unit of output for each affected producing sector. The first step in eliminating
the operating portion of the CAA compliance costs was to compute the share of these in the total
costs of each industry. For the manufacturing sectors, these costs were net of any recovered
costs associated with the operation of pollution control equipment. Reducing the unit cost
functions in the production model by these proportions then simulated removal of these costs.
The (net) additional resources required to operate and maintain this equipment were released in a
Hicks-neutral fashion; that is, for a given amount of output at fixed factor prices, each industry's
input demands declined in the same proportion.
Unlike the stationary source abatement expenditures, the mobile source compliance costs are
borne by the users rather than the producers of selected products. The CAA altered the purchase
prices of motor vehicles (sector 24) and other transportation equipment (sector 25), refined
petroleum products (sector 16) and vehicle repair and maintenance (sector 34). Removal of
these costs is accomplished in a manner identical to the removal of the stationary source
operating costs. First, in each category, the abatement cost share of total expenditure was
determined. For motor vehicles and refined petroleum, total expenditures included purchases
from domestic and foreign sources. Also, the refined petroleum effect includes a fuel price
penalty that is always a cost in these data and a fuel economy penalty that initially is a cost but
ultimately becomes a benefit. Finally, vehicle maintenance (part of sector 34, personal and
business services) benefits from the Clean Air Act in that automobiles are less costly to service;
thus, removal of the CAA harms this sector whereas all other aforementioned sectors benefit.
13
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The unit cost functions for the affected sectors along with the relevant import prices then were
additionally altered in proportion to the mobile source cost shares.
A summary of the net operating and maintenance and mobile compliance cost information
appears below in Table 3.3 and Figure 3.2.
Table 3.3:
Pollution Control Expenditures
as a Percent of the Value of Industry Output
Sector
Industry Name
1980
1990
1
Agriculture, forestry, fisheries
0.00
0.00
2
Metal mining
0.27
0.59
3
Coal Mining
0.26
0.40
4
Crude oil and gas extraction
0.18
0.46
5
Non-metallic mineral mining
0.28
0.34
6
Construction
0.02
0.02
7
Food and kindred products
0.01
0.03
8
Tobacco manufactures
0.00
0.01
9
Textile mill products
0,02
0.03
10
Apparel and other textile products
0,00
0.00
11
Lumber and wood products
0.03
0.07
12
Furniture and fixtures
0,01
0.04
13
Paper and allied products
0.05
0.12
14
Printing and publishing
0.01
0.03
15
Chemicals and allied products
0.22
0.20
16
Petroleum refining
2.24
2.29
17
Rubber and plastic products
0.02
0.03
18
Leather and leather products
0.01
0,02
19
Stone, clay and glass products
0.15
0.19
20
Primary metals
0.49
0.50
21
Fabricated metal products
0.03
0.08
22
Non-electrical machinery
0.02
0.02
23
Electrical machinery
0.02
0.03
24
Motor vehicles
2.01
2.55
25
Other transportation equipment
0,02
0.04
26
Instruments
0,02
0.02
27
Miscellaneous manufacturing
0.01
0.02
28
Transportation and warehousing
0.06
0.06
29
Communications
0.02
0.02
30
Electric utilities (services)
1.98
1.44
31
Gas utilities (services)
0,06
0.18
32
Wholesale and retail trade
0.02
0.02
33
Finance, insurance and real estate
0.02
0.02
34
Personal and business services
-0,31
-0.28
35
Government enterprises
0.02
0.02
14
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Figure 3.2 Industry Compliance Costs
Stationary Source O&M Costs (Net of Recovered Costs) arid All Mobile Source Carts
Ayr wuHure, fvctOy, HitieriM
M«Uie
Rubber «nd pUvtic products
Leather «nJ tcvthci produce
J*or»e, ci*Y «n« (#»*• prc* maenpwry
Mu*or »*hk*r»
Mtw >rv>vpon«f*oo equipm***
titUuiterii*
Mi«i>u
!r *nii*Jnji
f.omfTO JO** KM**
Electric »U^»MrC • 3JJ
Cost* at a ^ of Total Industry Output
15
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4. The Benefits from Compliance
The Clean Air Act secured improvements in the general health and welfare of the population
through reductions in lead concentrations and emissions of particulate matter (total suspended
particulates), sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, volatile organic compounds and carbon monoxide.
These benefits are organized under three broad categories: mortality effects, morbidity effects,
and expenditure effects. Mortality effects are associated with the pre-mature deaths of men,
women and children as a consequence of exposures to lead and the other pollutants. Morbidity
effects are associated with the restricted activity and workdays lost arising from illnesses related
to these same exposures. The illnesses considered include chronic bronchitis and other
respiratory ailments, heart disease and congestive heart failure, stroke and hypertension. Lost IQ
points due to exposures to lead also are viewed as affecting the quality and quantity of available
labor inputs. Expenditure effects are associated with household spending that arises in absence
of the protections afforded by the Clean Air Act. These include physician and hospital
admissions expenses, home maintenance expenditures related to soiling damages and
compensatory outlays for needed education.
Appendix D of EPA's 1997 The Benefits and Costs of the Clean Air Act, 1970 to 1990 formed
the basis of the benefit measures considered here. This appendix collected and summarized the
human health and welfare effects that were estimated for the criteria pollutants identified in the
Clean Air Act. With these data as starting points, the staff at EPA's National Center for
Environmental Economics interpolated the benefits for intervening years, 1970-1990, and
provided "best estimate" extrapolations of the benefit streams to the year 2100, the terminal year
of analysis. These extrapolations were necessary because, logically, the benefits of compliance,
unlike the costs that are presumed to reach a steady state by 1990, continue to grow well into the
future serving both current and future generations as they age and come into existence,
respectively. The documentation and benefit estimates developed by EPA appear as Appendices
A, B and C to this report.
Of interest in this assessment are the relative contributions of lead and non-lead pollutants in the
mix of overall benefits. As it turns out, these vary by benefit category. For mortality effects,
lead contributes but a small fraction of the overall damages, rising from 2.4 percent of avoided
deaths in 1971 to a steady-state 10.0 percent by 1990. For the morbidity effects, lead is more
important as its growing adverse consequences do not materialize until the early 1990's. From
1970 to 1993, activity days lost related to lead concentrations are in the range of 4.0 to 6.0
percent of all pollution-related days lost. Beginning in 1993, this percentage rises steadily to
13.0 percent by 2000, to 29.0 percent by 2010, to 41.0 percent by 2020 and to a steady state of
around 57.0 percent by 2050. Lead is most significant as a percentage of avoided expenditures.
Here, lead's share rises from 27.0 percent in 1971 to almost 59.0 percent by 1990. Lead's
percentage of avoided expenditure hovers in the sixty percent range over the remainder of the
simulation period.
Introducing EPA's benefit estimates into the IGEM methodology requires certain actuarial
adjustments. These are shown in Table 4.1 below. In that persons both die and retire, there
comes a point in time in which an avoided death or activity day lost no longer appears as a
16
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cumulative benefit because the individual in question has either died or is no longer working age.
Accordingly, the EPA benefits were adjusted to account for normal deaths and aging. Mortality
affects both the population (the number of household equivalent members or consumers) and the
time endowment of labor in IGEM. The time endowment of labor comprises fourteen hours per
day devoted to work and leisure for each member of the working-age population, ages 14 to 74.
It is adjusted for hours spent in school and for quality related to educational attainment. It is
expressed in dollars, reflecting the prevailing after-tax compensation received per unit of labor
services provided to employers. For the population adjustment, it was assumed that persons no
longer contribute avoided-death benefits past their middle- to late-eighties; thus, each age-cohort
series in the EPA data was lagged an actuarially appropriate number of years to assure its
removal from the benefit stream. The avoided deaths in any given year thus represent EPA's
estimated cumulative avoided deaths to this date less any cumulative deaths to this date that
would have occurred anyway. The mortality effects on labor's time endowment were
determined similarly, the only differences being that persons over 75 were not considered part of
the labor force (and, hence, were not considered avoided-death benefits) and that persons were
assumed to retire by age 75 (and, hence, should no longer be counted as an avoided-death
benefit). Retirement at 75 is consistent with IGEM's construct of the available pool of quality-
adjusted hours for work and leisure It also appears reasonable insofar as less than three percent
of 1990*$ civilian labor force was 65 and over with those 75 and over accounting for one third of
these at most.
Table 4.1:
Year after which Persons No Longer
Appear in the CAA Mortality Benefit Stream
Age Category Population Losses Workday Losses
Infant
86
73
30-34
57
44
35-44
49
36
45-54
39
26
55-64
29
16
65-74
19
6
75-84
9
85 and over
5
An actuarial adjustment also was applied to EPA's workdays lost for reasons of illness or IQ
loss. In the EPA data, morbidity-related workdays lost rise to over 2.0 percent of total workdays
available by the early 2020's and continue to rise to just over 3.0 percent by century's end. A
person's working life was assumed to be 47 years in the EPA analysis or, equivalently, ages 18
through 65. If the EPA series were adjusted in the manner above to account for normal
retirements, then the workdays lost benefits peak at just over 2.0 percent in the early 2020's and
gradually decline thereafter, falling to just under 1.0 percent by 2100. Since there are no age-
cohort details available for the morbidity damages, a mid-point, terminal value of just over 2.0
17
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percent of total workdays available was assumed. Essentially, the morbidity benefit trajectory
tracks the EPA adjusted (and unadjusted) series to it peak of 2.0 percent where it remains for the
balance of the simulation period.
It is useful to understand the composition of the morbidity damages. These initially are driven
by chronic bronchitis arising from exposures to non-tead pollutants. In 1971, fifty percent of the
unadjusted damages are due to chronic bronchitis. This proportion increases to 82 percent by
1980 and to 89 percent by 1990. It peaks at 93 percent in 1993 when the lagged effects of lead-
related IQ point losses first appear. These, then, begin to exert more influence and, ultimately,
dominate the morbidity damages. In the long run, chronic bronchitis accounts for 41 percent of
the morbidity effects while the embodied productivity consequences of reduced IQ's among the
workforce account for 56 percent of the effects; together, they comprise almost 97 percent of the
non-expenditure morbidity benefit.
The direct benefits from the Clean Air Act are presented in Figures 4.1 and 4.2 below. Figure
4.1 summarizes the mortality and morbidity effects. Even in the near term, the estimated
benefits from compliance with the Act are not trivial. By 1990, net avoided deaths are 0.8
percent of the population and, by 2100, they are 1.5 percent of the population. These deaths
reduce labor availability by 0.5 and 0.9 percent, respectively. The morbidity effects add to these.
By 1990, morbidity adds another 0.9 percent in activity days lost and, by 2100, morbidity
accounts for an additional 2.0 percent reduction in labor's time endowment. The combined
impacts on labor availability total 0.5 percent in 1980, 1.4 percent in 1990, 2.3 percent in 2000
and 2.9 percent by 2100.
The 1993 Statistical Abstract of the United States (Table 126) reports death rates due to major
cardiovascular diseases, chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases, pneumonia and influenza, and
acute bronchitis of approximately 1.1 million persons in each of the years 1980 and 1990. The
premature deaths (unrelated to lead exposure) underlying Figure 4.1 were estimated at 145,884
and 183,539 persons in 1980 and 1990, respectively. (These are 94 and 90 percent, respectively,
of the total mortality effects.) These data imply that the Clean Air Act reduced the deaths due to
the aforementioned illnesses by 12 and 15 percent in 1980 and 1990, respectively.
A similar perspective can be developed for the morbidity effects. By 1990, the morbidity effect
has risen to almost 1 percent of the household time endowment. These damages are introduced
as reductions in the discretionary, quality-adjusted time available (14 hours per day, 7 days per
week and 52 weeks per year) for work and leisure. The morbidity benefits focus on avoiding
restricted activity days and not simply avoiding work-loss days. While it turns out that the
proportionate reductions in labor services (work) demanded and supplied mirror these damages,
the labor-leisure decision is an internal model outcome. The 1993 Statistical Abstract of the
United States (Table 199) reports on disability days. In 1970, there were 2109 million restricted
activity days associated with the 135.0 million non-school-aged persons under 65 years of age.
In 1990, there were 2522 million restricted activity days associated with the 170.3 million non-
school-aged persons under 65 years of age. This segment of the population, comprising around
90 percent of the working-age population, averaged 15.6 and 14.8 days of restricted activity per
person in 1970 and 1990, respectively. On an annual basis, these figures indicate an activity loss
(for both work and leisure) due to injury and illness of slightly more than 4 percent of all
18
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available days for almost 70 percent of the population. Moreover, this loss declined by over 5
percent between 1970 and 1990. In magnitude, EPA's morbidity benefits are in the range of 20
to 25 percent of these figures implying that the absence of the Clean Air Act would be
responsible for an increase in excess of 20 percent in restricted activity days due to injury and
illness. (Actual workdays lost averaging 5.4 and 5,3 days per civilian employee in 1970 and
1990, respectively, are only partially relevant here as the benefit focus is on the time available
for work atui leisure and the model ultimately determines the allocation of time to each.)
The expenditure effects portrayed in Figure 4.2 are relatively small, reaching a peak of less than
0.8 percent of all spending on personal and business services. Initially, the avoided expenditures
rise in comparison to the underlying spending. However, by the early to middle 1990's, the pace
of total spending on services begins to outstrip the estimated avoided expenditures on healthcare,
home maintenance and education. For the period beyond 2000, it was assumed that avoided
expenditures would remain at 0.7 percent of annual spending.
Figure 4.1: Mortality and Morbidity Effects
Counterfactual Scenario: No Adoption of the Clean Air Act
0.0 (55 10 15 2.0 2.S
Percent of bRMlin* population sr time tndawmwrt
19
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20
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S. Economic Performance and Welfare
Economic Performance
The Clean Air Act provides sustained, long-run economic benefits. Real GDP ultimately is as
much as 2.0 percent higher as a consequence of its enactment. Figure 5.1 summarizes these
results. Note that in this figure and the ones to follow, economic costs appear as gains whiles
economic benefits appear as losses; this is due to the counter-factual procedures adopted for the
model simulations. Were the economy to avoid the costs of compliance, final spending
eventually would be almost 1.0 percent greater. However, this ignores the benefits arising from
the Act. Were these to be avoided, final spending eventually would be almost 3.0 percent lower.
On balance, there are initial net economic losses as the private costs of compliance, operating
through the "crowding out" of productive investment and through productivity decline, exceed
the benefits of the avoided damages to life and health. By the late 1980's, there are annual net
benefits as the ongoing avoidance of deaths and health-related workdays lost more than
compensate the permanent costs of ongoing compliance. By the middle 1990's, there are
cumulative net benefits that continue to grow as the time horizon is extended.
R«aliz«d N»t Damag«i
Realized Damages
Avoided Compliance Cost*
-2-0
Figure 5.1: Impacts on Real GOP
Counterfactual scenario: No Adoption or the Clean Air Act
The macroeconomic adjustments to CAA compliance are somewhat more intricate than the
benefit adjustments. The principal impacts of compliance are on investment and capital
accumulation and the economic restructuring associated with them. (See Figures 5.2 and 5.3.)
21
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Adding a pollution control component to new capital is equivalent to raising the marginal price
of investment goods. Combining this with the windfall loss of having to bring existing capital
into compliance reduces the economy's rate of return on saving and investment. In turn, this
reduces the level of real investment by producers and consumers. The price- and return-effects
and less rapid (ordinary) capital accumulation imply a higher rental price for capital services and
a corresponding lower demand. The capital rental price increases also serve to raise the prices of
goods and services and, so, the overall price level.
Figure 5.2: Impacts on Real Investment
CounterTactual Scenario: Ho Adoption of the Ciean Air Act
The price effects from investment changes are augmented by the cost increases associated with
diverting resources to the operation and maintenance of pollution control equipment and by the
higher prices caused by regulations on mobile sources. As a result of higher prices, each dollar
flow supports fewer quantity purchases. Real consumption, real investment and real purchases
by governments all fall. Ultimately, real income (Figure 5.1) and consumption (Figure 5.4) fall
by one percent while real investment (Figure 5.2) and the capital stock (Figure 5,3) decrease by
one and one half percent.
22
-------
23
-------
To households, CAA compliance costs act to reduce permanent future real earnings (income)
through their price effects. This leads to a decrease in real consumption in all periods (Figure
5,4) and, generally, to decreases in household saving and the demand for leisure (Figure 5.5).
Households marginally increase their offer of labor services (Figure 5.6) as the income effects of
lower real earnings dominate the substitution effects of higher goods prices. The income effects
arise as lower income leads to lower consumption of goods, services and leisure, thus increasing
labor supply. The substitution effects arise as higher prices for goods and services promote less
consumption of them and a greater consumption of leisure, thus reducing labor supply.
Figure 5.5: impacts on Leisure Demand
Counterfactual Scenario: No Adoption of the Cfean Air Act
Real spending by governments falls as a consequence of higher commodity prices and the
adjustments that hold spending in line with changes in tax revenues and maintain (by
assumption) government deficit at previous levels. Real net exports rise. This occurs as the
dollar weakens by an amount that is sufficient to keep the current account surplus unchanged.
Within this overall adjustment, real exports fall as the U.S. becomes less competitive. Real
imports also fall because of the weaker dollar and, more importantly, because of the increases in
motor vehicle and refined petroleum import prices that accompany CAA compliance.
Finally, productivity effects offer additional supply-side costs to the economy. These arise
mainly from the input and output restructuring that takes place. Relative price changes alter the
input patterns within each producing sector and change the level of input-to-output productivity.
Relative prices changes and the altered structure of final demand, both within and across
spending categories, change the output composition of the economy. Since productivity differs
among industries, this compositional change affects overall productivity. This output effect on
overall productivity also appears in the input-to-output relation between the intermediate use of
24
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goods and services and final demand (value added). Lastly, there are smaller effects as higher
factor prices decrease the endogenous rates of productivity growth in those industries that are
factor using. Higher rental prices for capital harm the capital-using sectors, higher materials
prices harm the materials-using sectors and higher energy prices harm the energy-using sectors.
Thus, the principal effects arising from the costs associated with clean air initiatives are to slow
the economy's rate of capital accumulation and, by restructuring economic activity, its overall
rate of productivity growth.
The macroeconomic adjustments to CAA benefits are more straightforward. There is a small
productivity benefit leading to lower prices as resources in the services sector are released from
healthcare, home maintenance and compensatory education activities. There is a much larger
benefit from having a larger population and time endowment. These affect the scale of the
economy and the broad categories of spending within it. As shown in Figures 5.5 above and 5.6
below, the impacts on leisure demand and labor supply follow directly from the avoided deaths
and workdays lost attributed to the Clean Air Act. These add primary inputs to production and
consumers to purchase this output. Production and spending are simply greater, with increases
approximately equal to the proportionate increases in people and time. More people and time
favor labor supply and consumption proportionally more than saving and investment. For
reasons of both demand-pull and cost-push, prices related solely to the benefits are higher under
the CAA, the exception being services as noted above. Greater labor availability relative to
capital encourages substitution of the former relative to the latter. Saving and investment and,
hence, the nation's capital stock increase substantially but proportionally less so than labor
supply and consumption Labor and primary-factor productivity fall while capital productivity
rises. The declining capital-labor ratio also contributes to slower overall productivity growth.
Thus, the benefits of the Clean Air Act derive from its effects on the primary inputs to
production, labor and, to a somewhat lesser extent, capital.
The net benefits of the CAA combine the early capital and productivity losses of compliance
with the subsequent labor and capita] gains associated with fewer deaths and workdays lost. In
the short run, the Clean Air Act proves costly to the economy. A lower capital stock and reduced
productivity more than offset the induced and benefit-driven gains from labor. However, over
time, the benefits continue to mount while the compliance costs stabilize. Ultimately, under the
CAA, the economy is larger with a larger population, a larger pool of labor and a greater capital
stock.
It is interesting to note that much of the 1970*8 and 1980's were characterized by a relatively
rapid growth in labor supply accompanied by comparatively slower rates of growth in capital
accumulation and productivity. The 1990's experienced a significant reversal in the slowdowns
in capital formation and productivity while continuing the strong trends in job growth. The
nature and timing of the adjustments described above are entirely consistent with these observed
patterns. Clearly, the Clean Air Act was not wholly responsible for the trends of the last thirty
years. However, given the remarkable consistency of historic trends and the aforementioned
adjustments, the Clean Air Act clearly exerted identifiably measurable influences on observed
economic performance.
25
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Realized Net Damages
Realized Damage*
Avoided Compliance Corti
Figure 5.6: Impacts on Labor Demand & Supply
Counterfactuaf Scenario: No Adoption of the Clean Air Act
E
£
©
a
c.
y
*
KA
K
.1.5
2M
25
Welfare Considerations
The 1970 Clean Air Act and its 1977 Amendments secure a net benefit to economic welfare in
the amount of $(1990) 26.2 trillion. A cumulative benefit of $(1990) 27.9 trillion is partially
offset by market costs of $(1990) 1.7 trillion. The former arise as a consequence of the
mortality, morbidity and productivity effects of the CAA while the latter reflect the direct and
indirect costs of compliance. Table 5.1 summarizes the details of net welfare under the
assumptions that benefits and costs accrue indefinitely and are discounted at IGEM's social rate
of time preference of approximately 2.9%.
Table 5.1:
The Impacts on Household Welfare
Present Value to 1990 at 2.9%
Trillions of 1990 Dollars
Welfare Coverage
Net Benefit
Calculation
Decomposition of
Net Benefit
Calculation
Total CAA Benefits
CAA mortality benefits based on the value of
a statistical life (life-year) saved
$27.9
$21.1
26
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CAA morbidity and productivity benefits in +6,8
terms of the market values of goods, services
and leisure
Less CAA costs in terms of the market -1.7 -1.7
values of goods, services and leisure
Equals CAA Net Benefits $26.2 $26.2
Note: CAA mortality benefits in terms of the market values of goods, services and leisure are estimated at
$(1990)3.0 trillion.
The mortality benefits of $(1990) 21.1 trillion combine EPA's value of a statistical life (VSL)
saved with the cumulative, discounted population change attributable to the CAA. In assessing
the mortality benefits of environmental policies, EPA employs a literature-based valuation for a
statistical life saved of $(1990) 4.8 million (EPA 1997 and 2000). This figure goes beyond
purely market considerations and measures the willingness-to-pay to avoid a premature death.
As such, it incorporates not only a market-based willingness-to-pay in terms of foregone
consumption and leisure but also an insurance or option premium willingly paid to avoid a
foregone life. Valuations of a statistical life-year (VSLY) saved are easily determined from the
lifetime value by computing annuities under various discount rates and time horizons. The
$(1990) 21.1 trillion mortality benefit results from applying an annuity value of about $138,500
to the change in the discounted, present value population or, equivalently, from applying the 4.8
million to the discounted present value of the change in additions to the population. In the case
of the former, an annuity value is used because benefits (i.e., particular avoided deaths) appear in
multiple periods (i.e., until these same deaths would have occurred naturally). In the case of the
latter, the lifetime valuation is used because benefits appear only once in the benefit stream (i.e.,
in the period in which the deaths were avoided).
IGEM offers a purely market view of economic welfare. Within IGEM, indirect utility functions
are recoverable from the systems of household demand functions involving goods and services
(i.e., consumption by commodity) and aggregate consumption and leisure (i.e., full
consumption). These can be inverted to give the level of expenditure necessary to achieve a
given level of welfare at a prevailing set of prices. From these, equivalent variations or
households' willingness-to-pay are computed. These provide a broad market-based perspective
of general equilibrium welfare in that all factor and product markets are considered on a national
scale. However, this perspective is limited in that it does not consider welfare valuations beyond
those reflected in market prices and transactions (e.g., the option value of an avoided premature
death).
Although model structures differ greatly, the metrics in IGEM are conceptually identical to the
work of Sieg, et. al. (2000) which estimates the welfare benefits of large scale reductions in
ozone in Southern California taking into account the general equilibrium consequences for
housing prices and location choice. (IGEM, of course, offers a broader notion of general
equilibrium in that all factor and product markets are considered and in that its scale is national.
However, the paths from theory to practice are the same.)
Figure 5 .7 illustrates the market implications of a policy change for social welfare. (These
features are illustrated for a static two-good world involving aggregate consumption and leisure.
In IGEM, the actual welfare calculations are present value equivalent variations determined from
27
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the time paths of interest rates and the prices for goods, services and leisure.) Figure 5 .7
involves a move from situation A to B in which there is a welfare loss from W(A) to W(B).
Implicitly, there is an increase in the relative price of consumption and a general equilibrium
reduction in national income. The loss in social expenditure (or, money metric loss) conditional
on the prices and interest rates of situation A and the welfare level of situation B, denoted as {A',
W(B)} is given by the vertical distance {b-a}. This represents the market compensation that is
necessary to achieve the new welfare level at the original prices and is the social equivalent
variation or the measure of society's willingness to pay.
Figure 5.7: Changes in Sociaf Welfare
Consumption
IGEM permits two aggregate views of household welfare. Each represents the present-value
compensation that is necessary to achieve the welfare levels of a new situation at common base-
case prices and interest rates; each is a present-value equivalent variation. The two measures
differ in terms of what is included in the underlying welfare function. The broader measure
covers full consumption or the aggregate of goods, services and leisure. The narrower measure
covers consumption or the aggregate of goods and services alone. The former is more relevant
to this analysis. This is because of its inclusion of leisure and the fact that the benefits of the
CAA predominantly influence the availability of people and time.
In considering only the cost-side adjustments, CAA compliance leads to a market loss in social
welfare of $(1990) 1.7 trillion as shown in Table 5.1. This loss reflects the present-value
changes in consumption and leisure that arise from the impacts on capital and productivity
following enactment. It is this loss that partially offsets the $(1990) 27.9 trillion gain, leaving a
net welfare benefit of $(1990) 26.2 trillion.
28
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In considering the non-mortality benefits, the Clean Air Act secures a market gain in social
welfare of $(1990) 6.8 trillion. This gain reflects the present-value changes in consumption and
leisure that arise from the CAA-induced improvements in productivity and reductions in
morbidity. The gains in productivity arise from reductions in environmentally related healthcare
expenditures, household soiling costs that are no longer necessary and decreases in
compensatory education expenditures associated with reduced lead concentrations. Adding this
to the $(1990) 21.1 trillion in mortality benefits yields total CAA benefits of $(1990) 27.9
trillion.
Finally, and only for completeness, the mortality benefits of the CAA in terms of market gains in
consumption and leisure are estimated at $(1990) 3.0 trillion. This measure is not employed in
computing the social benefits of the CAA because it fails to reflect an all-important determinant
of mortality valuation, namely, the insurance premium or option value willingly paid to avoid
premature death. Instead, it is presumed to be part of the $(1990) 21.1 trillion in total CAA
mortality benefits.
A perspective on IGEM's market valuation of mortality lies in the foundations of EPA's estimate
of the value of a statistical life (VSL) saved. In the literature survey underlying EPA's $(1990)
4 .8 million mean value, the range of valuations is from $(1990) 600,000 to 13 .5 million or from
13 to 181% of the mean amount. The standard deviation from this range of observations is
$(1990) 3.2 million or 67% of the mean amount. In addition, sensitivity analyses conducted by
EPA on mortality benefits find the 5A percentile estimates to lie in the range of 15 to 25% of the
mean and the 95 percentile estimates to lie in the range of 120 to 150% of the mean. The
$(1990) 3.0 trillion market value of benefits from IGEM corresponds to a VSL of about $(1990)
700,000. This is toward the low end of EPA's range of data and analyses which is not surprising
since it is based solely on market considerations. Were the CAA benefits to comprise only the
market valuations from IGEM, a total market-based benefit of $(1990) 9.8 trillion also would
more than compensate the $1.7 trillion cost, leaving a net welfare gain of $(1990) 8.1 trillion in
terms of additional consumption and leisure. This is consistent in sign and magnitude with the
economic findings discussed above. Still, it is not an appropriate welfare valuation because it
does not fully capture the considerations of willingness-to-pay that are common in the VSL and
mortality-benefit literature. On balance, the conclusion that the insurance premium or option
value on a statistical life adds significantly to the net welfare gain in purely market terms seems
well justified and, therefore, the net welfare gain of $(1990) 26.2 trillion for the CAA appears
quite defensible.
The welfare results become more readily identifiable when expressed on an annual basis. At
IGEM's social rate of time preference of 2.9%, the CAA net benefit of $(1990) 26.2 trillion
corresponds to a benefit of $(1990) 756 billion annually. Real GDP in the year 2000 was about
$(1990) 7,980 billion. In percentage terms, the CAA net benefit represents less than ten percent
of current income. As significant as this seems, the benefits are far smaller proportions of
overall economic activity than some have portrayed them (e.g., Sieg, et. al., 2000). Moreover,
these results reflect the magnitudes of the avoided premature deaths and adverse health
consequences attributed to the CAA. As described in Section 4, the CAA is estimated to save
lives in the range of 15 .0 percent of those dying from cardiac and respiratory/pulmonary diseases
and to reduce restricted activity days in excess of 20.0 percent leaving more time for work and
29
-------
leisure. Accordingly, in the long run, the absence of the CAA leads to a population that is 1.5
percent smaller and to a time endowment of labor that is almost three percent smaller. Thus, the
magnitudes of net welfare benefits cannot be considered too surprising in view of the direct
environmental consequences upon which they are based.
30
-------
6. Energy and the Environment
IGEM features two physical indicators for energy and the environment that are driven by
economic variables within its structure. These are aggregate fossil fuel use and carbon
emissions. Figures 6.1 and 6.2 show the effects on these for the cost, benefit and combined
benefit-cost simulations. The Clean Air Act secures substantial reductions in fossil fuel use and
carbon emissions through the early years of the 21st century. Isolating the costs, energy
reductions follow from the patterns of energy price increases and stabilize at 1.5 percent of base
use. Emissions reductions follow a similar pattern but are slightly smaller in magnitude.
Isolating the benefits, energy use and emissions increase gradually reflecting the increasingly
larger economy. By 2010 or so, both fossil fuel use and carbon emissions are slightly higher
than they would be in absence of the Clean Air Act, The long-run increases are in the range of
0.5 percent of base levels.
Realized Net Damajjes
Realized Damages
Avoided Compliance CcsU
Figure 8.1: Impacts on Fossil Fuel Use
Counterfactual Scenario: No Adoption of the Clean Air Act
•8.5
Figures 6.3 and 6.4 show, respectively, the relations of fossil fuel use and carbon emissions
changes to changes in real GDP for the combined benefit-cost simulation. It is clear that the
Clean Air Act secures permanent and significant reductions in the energy- and emissions-
intensities of economy activity. However, as shown in Figure 6,5, the emissions-intensity of
fossil fuel use increases under the act. As will be discussed in Section 7, this arises because of
the reduced petroleum-intensity and increased coal-intensity of the nation's energy-consuming
capital stock.
31
-------
Figure 6.2: Impacts on Carbon Emissions
Counterfactual Scenario: No Adoption of the Clean Air Act
—Reiilred N*t 0«mtg*s
—Avoided Compiiince Ce»tm
—mtw a ,1.1.1,1 u.u .Hum
i i i III#i11111sIs1x%1111x X1111«111
figure 6.3: Net Impacts on the Fossil Fuel Intensity of the Economy
Counterfactual Scenario: No Adoption of the Clean Air Act
I | | i I | | | I I I 1 1 | 1 I | 1 1 I | | 1 | 1 1 | 1 | I 1 1 |
32
-------
Figure 6.4: Net Impacts on the Carbon Intensity of the Economy
Counterfactual Scenario: No Adoption of the Clean Air Act
Figure S.5: Net Impacts on the Carbon intensity of Fossil Fuel Use
Counterfactual Scenario: No Adoption of the Clean Air Act
33
-------
7. The Structure of Economic Activity
The Clean Air Act has its biggest direct impacts on the petroleum refining, motor vehicle and
electric utility sectors (see Tables 3.1 and 3.3). To lesser extents, metal and coal mining,
chemicals, primary metals and gas utilities also are affected directly. Operating through
influences on price and productivity, these impacts are illustrated in Figure 7.1. This shows
industry supply prices for 1990 as compliance costs were counter-factually eliminated. Figure
7.2 shows the output consequences of cost-side adjustments. Clearly, the CAA costs affect the
composition of domestic supply. The mechanisms are as follows. Relative price changes follow
from the CAA cost impacts and, in turn, alter the input patterns within each producing sector
(compare Figures 3.2 and 7.1). For example, the direct effects in 1990 on the prices of refined
petroleum, motor vehicles and electricity utilities are in the range of 1.5 to 2.5 percent and
account for a majority of the general equilibrium price effects observed in Figure 7.1. These
changes combine with the altered structure of final spending, both within and across the
categories of final demand (consumption, investment, government and net foreign purchases), to
change the output composition of the economy (see Section 4). As expected, those commodities
whose cost structures are most affected by the CAA experience the largest comparative
decreases in demand and supply under the Act. These include chemical and petroleum products,
motor vehicles and other transportation equipment, and electricity and gas supply. Indirectly,
these decreases and the decreased relative importance of investment goods adversely affect
mining (energy and non-energy alike), the metals industries, and transportation services.
There are a few sectors that comparatively expand upon introduction of the CAA compliance
costs. These include food and tobacco, furniture and fixtures, rubber and plastics, electronic
equipment and high technology instruments, and services. For services, the expansive indirect
effects of economic restructuring complement the benefits arising from reduced vehicle
maintenance costs. In broad terms, compliance with the CAA appears partly responsible for
accelerating the transition of the U.S. industrial landscape - a transition that is marked by the
declining relative importance of basic industries and the increasing relative importance of
technology and services.
The patterns of price and output changes associated with the Clean Air Act's benefits are much
more uniform in nature. (See Figures 7.3 and 7.4.) The lone exception to this is the services
sector that, here, reflects the productivity consequences of additional spending on healthcare,
home maintenance and compensatory education. Beyond this, industry price and output changes
are similar in magnitude and identical in direction. These mainly reflect the scale of activity, the
economy being over one percent larger, and broad compositional changes as in proportionally
greater increases in investment than in consumption.
Combining the benefits and costs of the Clean Air Act as in Figures 7.5 through 7.8 makes the
mix of industrial winners and losers all the more visible. Figures 7.5 and 7.6 show the dynamic
impacts on selected industries from the combined effects of CAA costs and benefits while
Figures 7.7 and 7.8 are as above. In the presence of this legislation, the economy is larger but is
much less intensive in mining, crude oil and gas extraction, petroleum refining, primary metals
and motor vehicle production, and electric generation. However, electric generation is more
34
-------
coal- and gas-intensive and less oil intensive, which accounts for the increasing (carbon)
emissions-intensity of fossil fuel use. Finally, the economy is much more intensive in the
production of consumer non-durable goods, high technology capital equipment and services, the
latter being aided by reduced housing and vehicle maintenance costs and avoided healthcare and
educational expenses.
Figure 7.1". Impacts on Domestic Supply Prices, 1990
Counterfactual Scenario: No Adoption of the Clean Air Act
AonciMort, tarovtr*
Ctutte md detraction
ifcyi n»M*£K minora* mantoo
CdMrtnictm
K*>0 aaw hKrtfr
Tof»*etr> mtmrffcetur**
nil pf
Ap(wrt wvi (Ow
turn**! mhI product*
rn«or« latMMi
r*l>*r *nd attod prcK»J>rt*
Prlrrtinp awl ixttAtMno
o*kI tx **«<«
Fetrxjfcrum t«rfarmy
Rubier aixJ pl««uc ix*y*Ln**
t km) tAMtier pff OfllMK
«lay IK «XKt*
f'limacy
FtbfKttixl metri irvbudi
fWscrrkc* cr\*T>«kwr>
Moiut wjfilcK*
fcatruff*)r«t
rnwXftcniorig
*r*r>*orrt*r»«
flACfTlc l|fU(M r»MriCM|
r.u ifttftuM i**rvkn«)
Wt tele* Ac- »**J (Ut» *<**:
f&erK-e. k>«<<'*<>:/5 «*>fj ***!
turnt bumtcr* •«»««
CtCMcwvr^m
-5.0% -4.0% -35% -2.0% -1.0% OjO% 1.0%
P«rc*ntao« change from (factual) bas« cast
35
-------
Figure 7.2: Impacts on Domestic Output, 1990
Counterfactual Scenario: No Adoption of the Clean Air Act
A+jrktt, cUy emi &*+* produce
Pf emery mst*»
f fctnTlCMArt RM4 fW(vCkjC<»
*kKM=tet*>ka# rn«cM«o*>
fcxwt*KM HUKiMnety
Motor vehlctov
Othei li«ri*poricrtkxi «Hju*»iKut{
Infftrommtc
MctFCbUerttfUU* 4>u
Yi ecreptxivto;) *cttf we;
Communis ett^n*
ClACtric <*er«K
FrwJ *nfj fcVxfctK) product* • :
i ob«**iX< Uf
-------
Figure 7.4: Impacts on Domestic Output, 1980
Courrterfactual Scenario: No Adoption of the Clean Air Act
AartaAixftrfftrfMEiryt (Hiwwie#
Mettf nwcriQ
CMftmttfna
Cruris nfi tad 0** eiftrftctiori
Hcm-fllifCysk ffdl KsfOf f{r*»*Q
Ctm4l]iM(iMl
FtWKJ «rfd krnii«J p* oUurttt
Tobvco mmifMtti'M
TflartV? mfl( (roriutti
«KJ MtCt Itttrirte
«d fcmotf pt0&K±+
furrJtur m «cmJ ftAnt
f'Hmw wxl prorkK**
PrWfclfl >wwj
CfHOTifaM* «ivd tlfcerf product*
ftrtroifHirr. r*fniftU*tk product*
U«(i>w *tM:(n*V)*K f*f
S*o«ms, cUy and product*
Pftftuf y mstttf*
ribriutwt mnil [K^je(4
iJMto(;atkKi*iKl w«c:xiuMi|2
Communiutiuw
fWKtr»c tflUftto* iwr«k
mki r(4«! u *4e
Fffmivte, krHti *f«c *ttd ie*4 ewt*
-------
Coti mining
Petroleum refining
Primary metals
Motor v*Nc!«>
Electric utilities
Gat uiiiitJ**
Services
4.0
a JJ
Figure 7.6: Realized Net Impacts on Domestic Output
Counterfactual Scenario: No Adoption of the Clean Air Act
& ~ f ^ f * J 4? f f f f f ^ f V ~ f f f -f f f
Figure 7.7: Impacts on Domestic Supply Prices, 1990
Counterfactual Scenario: No Adoption of the Clean Air Act
Atiiicuftix cr fix entry, I'nltem
m*rwvj
C<**1 imrtoq
Cfu(W> ol wwf qm Mtracnorv
Mtn-nwtttk miwil ffiitwi©
Cuntli uct-ai
(Aod *f*r. kindred
~Ob*« «¦ nwx^Murt^
f'rl ->l Xt^l *
rt «id utitef tcntite
Ltirr^Mr tort wqo4
vn& ftfurw
Pa^MEf Mtl Jilted |K iKXKt*
«fid (nrfrtt*1iariu
Chcn^itb »m6 prwiwtj
F-9fjr<4*4»m rrfkVfig
fata** «ad fttMtk i^rwfcjrt*
Leather ¦rtJteJther product
<4*y +**& qUu
Prtnwy
t ub IVMKM
Koti^iectrkil Huchlwy
Mo* or mftkw
Othrtr tt(Ai(>ut«ti0n
bwtcatifHitt
uiwtitdurtiv
Ii«i*ptK Mioci md WW £i
CNnemnMttMM
Uftiotfurtta m«J rnt«£ tr*#*r
f tfMftn, vt*ui tfitr: «Mi ie«i c«*«tc
Fw »<*%*: »wj ta>*ir<4ftft
CwTi rutnu* «rtr?f pi i*ct
-6.0% -4.0% -3,0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0%
Percentage change from (factual} base case
38
-------
Figure 7.8: Impacts on Domestic Output, 1990
CounterfactuaJ Scenario: No Adoption or the Clean AJr Act
A, ItMlHtUY, ftalwwt*4
Metd mrineno
CMlfmrihrx)
Crurt* n& end QM *«r jr rwtwht
f ¦brte*"Kl rewrt«f pro****
fem-cfettrkaJ rii^clttKr^
HKtrx^i »>»cl»ntffy
MuKfWMDN
0(ftc< Utfrtr^tHlKXl
Mmmmnt
Y» lv*io;i «K*d Wf*s CIlOv#^
CwnnwrMC-ittkon*
Etoctrx ntlttiM ip»rwc*x)
C>W flftlflft (twiriwc)
v*J rctrf U«tk
H-wicc, Kr9«x«(ice «kI i«*j eirttte
Pnrcwtf tnd hMVWM Mf^lcn
Cot*» iv(k-ik eficettKiv?*
¦4.0% -30% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% S.0% 7.0%
Percentage change from (factual) base case
39
-------
References
Ho, M.S. 1989. The Effects of External Linkages on U.S. Economic Growth: A Dynamic
General Equilibrium Analysis. Ph.D. Dissertation, Harvard Univer ity.
Jorgenson, D.W., R.J. Goettle, D.E. Gaynor, D.T. Slesnick and P.J. Wilcoxen. 1993. The Clean
Air Act and the U.S. Economy. Washington, DC: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
Prepared by Dale W. Jorgenson Associates, Cambridge, MA.
Jorgenson, D.W., and P.J. Wilcoxen. 1993. "The Economic Impact of t ie Clean Air Act
Amendments of 1990." Energy Journal 14(1): 159-182.
Jorgenson, D.W., and D.T. Slesnick. 1985. "General Equilibrium Analysis of Economic
Policy.M Pp.293-370 in New Developments in Applied General Equilibrium Policy, edited
by J. Piggott and J. Whalley. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, MA.
Jorgenson, D.W., and D.T. Slesnick. 1987. "Aggregate Consumer Behavior and Household
Equivalence Scales." Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 5(2): 219-232.
Jorgenson, D.W., D.T. Slesnick and P.J. Wilcoxen. 1992. "Carbon Taxes and Economic
Welfare." Pp.393-454 in Brookings Papers on Economic Activity: Microeconomics, 1992,
edited by M.N. Baily and C. Winston. Washington, DC.
Sieg, Holger, V.K. Smith, H.S. Banzhaf and R, Walsh. 2000. "Estimating the General
Equilibrium Benefits of Large Policy Changes: The Clean Air Act Revisited." NBER
Working Paper Series, Working Paper 7744. National Bureau of Economic Research,
Cambridge, MA.
United States Bureau of the Census. 1993 Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1993. 113th
Edition. Washington DC
United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). 1997. The Benefits and Costs of the
Clean Air Act, 1970 to 1990. Office of Administration and Resources Management, Office
of Policy, Planning and Evaluation, United States Environmental Protection Agency,
Washington, DC.
United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). 2000. Guidelines for Preparing
Economic Analysis. EPA-R-00-003. United States Environmental Protection Agency,
Washington, DC.
Wilcoxen, P.J. 1988. The Effects of Environmental Regulation and Energy Prices on U.S.
Economic Performance. Ph.D. Dissertation, Harvard University.
40
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Appendix A
Benefits:
Sources, Methods and Data
A.l
-------
Benefit Information from the Section 812 Retrospective
Report for CGE Model Use
1. Mortality
PM-Related mortality
Total avoided premature mortality data presented in Table 1 for years 1975,1980,1985,
and 1990 are taken from 812 Table D-13 (page D-45) (e.g., 58,764 for 1975). Total avoided
deaths in other years in Table 1 are calculated by straight-line interpolation.. Breakouts by age
group are based on the information in 812 Table D-14 (page D-46). The percentage of all
premature mortalities attributed to each age group is noted above each age group category in Table
1. That percentage is applied to total mortalities each year to derive age group-specific
mortalities.
Table 1. PM Mortality (avoided premature mortalities per year)
tots!
2%
30-34
4%
35-44
AGE GROUP
6% 13%
45-54 55-64
24%
65-74
29%
75-84
22%
85+
1970
0
0
0
0
0
0
• 0
0
1971
11,753
235
470
705
1,528
2,821
3,408
2,586
1972
23,506
470
940
1,410
3,056
5,641
6,817
5,171
1973
35,258
705
1,410
2,116
4,584
8,462
10,225
7,757
1974
47,011
940
1,880
2,821
6,111
11,283
13,633
10,342
1975
58,764
1,175
2,351
3,526
7,639
14,103
17,042
12,928
1976
76,188
1,524
3,048
4,571
9,904
18,285
22,095
16,761
1977
93,612
1,872
3,744
5,617
12,170
22,467
27,147
20,595
1978
111,036
2,221
4,441
6,662
14,435
26,649
32,200
24,428
1979
128,460
2,569
5,138
7,708
16,700
30,830
37,253
28,261
1980
145,884
2.918
5,835
8,753
18,965
35,012
42,306
32.094
1981
150.636
3,013
6,025
9,038
19,583
36,153
43,684
33,140
1982
155,387
3,108
6,215
9,323
20,200
37,293
45,062
34,185
1983
160,139
3,203
6,406
9,608
20,818
38,433
46,440
35,231
1984
164.890
3,298
6,596
9,893
21,436
39,574
47,818
36,276
1985
169,642
3,393
6,786
10,179
22,053
40,714
49,196
37,321
1986
172,421
3,448
6,897
10,345
22,415
41,381
50,002
37,933
1987
175,201
3,504
7,008
10,512
22,776
42,048
50,808
38,544
1988
177,990
3,560
7,119
10,679
23,137
42.715
51,614
39,156
1989
180,760
3,615
7,230
10,846
23,499
43,382
52,420
39,767
1990
183,539
3,671
7,342
11,012
23,860
44,049
53,226
40,379
A.2
-------
Pb-Related mortality
For Pb-related effects, the 812 results were based on four separate analyses — two sets of
additive analyses (for Pb emissions from industrial processes, boilers, and electric utilities; and
for Pb emissions from leaded gasoline), and two sets of alternative baselines (one holding all
other Pb emissions at 1970 levels, the other at 1990 levels). Tables G-6, G-7, G-9, and G-10 give
the four sets of results for male mortality by age group (40-54, 55-64, and 65-74), and Table D-13
gives infant mortality and adult female (age 45-74) mortality for the years 1975, 1980,1985, and
1990. The D-13 results are reproduced in Table 2 below. The G-6 and G-7 results (for adult
male mortality) were averaged, as were the G-9 and G-10 results, the two averages were then
summed, with the sum reported in Table 2, below.1 [For example, 1975 age 40-54 male mortality
from Tables G-6,7,9,and 10 (0.1,0.3, 309, and 476 respectively) is reported as 393 in Table 2].
Avoided deaths in other years in Table 2 are calculated by straight-line interpolation.
Table 2. Pb-Related Mortality (avoided premature mortalities per year)
infarrt
40-54
MEN
55-64 65-74
total
(40-74)
45-54
WOMEN
55-64 65-74
total
{45-74}
1970
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1971
81
79
56
21
156
23
17
6
46
1972
162
157
112
42
311
47
33
12
92
1973
274
238
169
63
467
70
50
19
139
1974
365
314
225
84
623
93
67
25
105
1975
458
393
281
105
778
117
S3
31
231
1976
833
801
585
224
1,610
239
174
67
480
1977
1,210
1,209
888
344
2,442
361
265
103
728
1978
1,588
1,618
1,191
464
3,273
483
356
139
977
1979
1,965
2,026
1,495
584
4,105
605
446
174
1,225
1980
2,342
2,434
1,798
704
4,936
727
537
210
1,474
1961
2,660
2,897
2,120
852
5,869
865
633
254
1,752
1982
2,878
3,359
2,443
999
6,801
1,003
729
298
2,031
1983
3^97
3,822
2,765
1,147
7,734
1,141
826
342
2,309
1984
3,615
4,284
3,088
1,294
8,666
1,279
922
386
2,588
1985
3.933
4,747
3,410
1,442
9,599
1,417
1.018
430
2,866
1986
4,135
5,009
3,523
1,528
10,060
1,494
1,051
456
3,000
1987
4,33?
5,271
3,636
1,614
10,521
1,570
1,083
481
3,134
1988
4,640
5,533
3,749
1,700
10,982
1.647
1,116
506
3,269
1989
4,742
5,795
3,862
1,786
11,444
1,723
1,148
531
3,403
1990
4,944
6,058
3,975
1,872
11,905
1.800
1,181
556
3,537
1 Note that the D-13 results for infants and adult females sometimes differ from the Appendix G results. This is because
Che D-13 results are the mean values from a Monte-Carlo simulation using the Appendix G inputs, rather than a simple reporting of
the Appendix G results.
A.3
-------
Conversion of total adult female mortality to mortality by age group is accomplished by
assuming the same age distribution associated with adult male mortality (i.e., if 50% of male
mortalities in a year were in the 55-64 age group, then it is assumed that 50% of female mortalities
in that year were in the 55-64 age group). Note that the female distribution might be skewed
somewhat because the youngest age cohort (45-54) is smaller than the corresponding youngest
male age cohort (40-54).
A.4
-------
Total Mortality Effects
Table 3 sums the results presented in the first two tables, with one modification to the
ealready-presentcd data. In Table 2, the youngest male age cohort is 40-54. Here, it is assumed
that 1/3 of the age 40-54 mortalities occur in the 40-44 group, with 2/3 occuring in the 45-54
group.
Table 3. All Mortality Effects, 1970-1990 (avoided premature mortalities per year)
AGE GROUP
Infant
30-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65-74
75-84
85+
1970
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1971
91
235
496
781
1,601
2,848
3.408
2,586
1972
182
470
993
1,562
3,202
5,696
6,817
5,171
1973
274
705
1,489
2,343
4,802
8,543
10,225
7,757
1974
365
940
1,985
3,123
6,403
11,391
13,633
10,342
1975
456
1,175
2,481
3,904
8,004
14,239
17,042
12,928
1976
833
1,524
3,315
5,344
10,663
18,576
22,095
18,761
1977
1,210
1,872
4,148
6,784
13,322
22,814
27,147
20,595
1978
1,588
2,221
4,981
8,223
15,981
27,252
32,200
24,428
1978
1,965
2,569
5,814
9,663
18,641
31,589
37,253
28,261
1980
2,342
2,918
6,647
11,103
21,300
35,927
42,306
32,094
1961
2,660
3,013
6,991
11,834
22,336
37,259
43,684
33,140
1982
2,978
3,108
7,335
12,566
23,373
38,590
45,062
34,185
1983
3,297
3,203
7,680
13,297
24,409
39,922
46,440
35,231
1984
3,615
3,298
8,024
14,029
25,445
41,254
47,818
36,276
1985
3,933
3,393
8,368
14,761
26,482
42,586
49,196
37,321
1986
4,135
3,448
8,567
15,179
26,989
43,365
50,002
37,933
1987
4,337
3,504
8,765
15,507
27,495
44,143
50,808
38,544
1988
4,540
3,560
8,984
16,015
28,002
44,921
51,614
39,156
1989
4,742
3,615
9,162
16,433
28,509
45,700
52,420
39,767
1990
<3,944
3,671
9,361
16,850
29,016
46,478
53,226
40,379
A 5
-------
2. Non-Mortality Effects
Chronic Bronchitis
Table D-13 in the 812 report presents two estimates of new cases of chronic bronchitis per
year, one based on a study by Schwartz, the other on a study by Abbet et al. Consistent with the
812 approach, Table 4 presents an average of the two as a mean estimate of the number of new
cases per year. New cases for years other than 1970,1975,1980, 1985, and 1990 are derived by
straight-line interpolation It is assumed that the affected population contracts chronic bronchitis
by middle age (i.e., by age 45), would not have died by 1990 (the expected remaining lifespan for
a 40-year old is 38 years (from 812 Table D-14)), and would have continued emloyment at least
until 1990 had chronic bronchitis not been contracted. The cumulative number of cases of chronic
bronchitis in any year is then the sum of all new cases since 1970.
Table 4. Chronic Bronchitis Effects (thousands of $1990, and work-loss-days per
year)
($1000s)
med
Abbev
Schwartz
Am
cumulative
Wend.
m
1970
0
0
0
0
0
0
1371
39,795
34,714
37,254
37,254
9,798
1,604,632
1972
79,589
69,428
74,509
111,763
29,394
4,813,897
1973
119,384
104,143
111,763
223,528
58.787
9,627,794
1974
159,178
138,857
149,018
372,544
97,979
16,046,323
1975
198,973
173,571
186,272
558,816
146,969
24,069,484
1976
270,105
229,719
249,912
808,728
212,895
34,833,753
1977
341,237
285,866
313,551
1,122,279
295,159
48,339,130
1978
412,368
342,014
377,191
1,499,470
394,361
64,585,614
1979
463,cQ0
398,161
440,831
1,940,301
510,299
83,573,206
1980
554,532
454,309
504,471
2,444,772
642,975
105,301,905
1981
587,739
476,398
532,068
2,976,840
782,909
128,219,305
1882
620,846
498,487
559,866
3.536,506
930,101
152,325,405
1983
653.952
520,575
587,264
4,123.770
1,064,551
177,620,205
1984
687,059
542,664
614,862
4,738,632
1.246,260
204,103,706
1985
720,166
564,753
642,460
5,381,091
1,415,227
231,775,908
1996
724,488
572,400
646,444
6,028,535
1,585,768
259,705,879
1987
72SS10
580,048
654,429
6,683,964
1,757,882
287.893,622
1966
733.131
587,695
660,413
7,344,377
1,931,571
316,339,134
1989
737,453
595,343
666,398
8,010,775
2,106,834
345,042,417
1990
741,775
602,990
672,383
8,683,158
2,283,670
374,003,471
A.6
-------
The 812 report used a modified CV-based willingness-to-pay estimate to value an avoided
chronic bronchitis case. In an earlier valuation document produced by IEc,2 however, a COI
estimate for chronic bronchitis was developed. Based on a 1990 Cropper & Krupnick paper,
annual medical cost is assumed to be ($1990) $263, and total COI is $3,838 per year (of which
$3,575 is lost income, and $263 is medical expense). Since the 812 report values a lost work day
at $83, then $3,575 of lost income represents, on average, [$3575/$83] 43.07 work loss days.
Table 4 (above) converts annual cases of chronic bronchitis into medical expenditures and
work loss days. Each case is assumed to entail $263 of annual expenditure on medical care, and
involve 43.07 work loss days per year. Thus, the cumulative 8.7 million cases avoided in 1990
resulted in $2.3 billion of a\ oided medical expense and 374 million work loss days in 1990.
2 Review of Existing Value of Morbidity Avoidance Estimates: Draft Valuation Document, 30 Sept. 1993.
A.7
-------
Non Pb-Related Hospital Admissions
Table 5 presents Non Pb-related hospital admissions for 1975,1980,1985, and 1990 from
812 table D-13. Admissions for other years are derived by linear interpolation (and assuming 0
for 1970). Where more than one source study for concentration-response functions are available,
the "total" used to calculate 812 benefits is the mean of the results from the individual studies.
To derive expenditures on hospital admissions, the following per-incident valuations are
assumed (from 812 Table 1-2):
COPD & Pneumonia: $ 8,100
Congestive Heart Failure: $ 8,300
All Respiratory: $ 6,100
Ischemic Heart Disease: $10,300
In the 812 benefits analysis the "COPD/pneumonia" and "all respiratory" results are assumed to
be alternative measurements of a single health effect (rather than separate, additive health effects).
Thus, in the 812 benefits estimate, expenditures for the two categories are averaged rather than
summed. The total expenditure reported in Table 5 is:
EXP = 8.3(#CHF) + 10.3 (#IHD) + 0.5(8. l(#COPD) + 6.1(#resp)).
A.8
-------
». Noo Pb-Rclated Hospital Admissions and Medical Expenditures (number of cases, and
ds of $1990 annually)
lAJPD & Pneumonia
mmm
Schwartz
94c
Schwartz
spok
Schwartz
94a
Schwartz
94b
total
Schwartz
& Morris
Morris
m
1970
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1971
4,380
3,954
3,388
2,601
3,581
1,147
604
1,751
1972
8,759
7,908
6,777
5,202
7,162
2,293
1,209
3,502
1973
13,139
11,861
10,165
7,804
10,742
3,440
1,813
5,253
1974
17,518
15,815
13,554
10,405
14,323
4,586
2,418
7,004
1975
21,898
19,769
16,942
13,006
17,904
5,733
3,022
8,755
1976
28,304
25,274
21,730
16,541
22,962
7,259
4,126
11,386
1977
34,710
30,779
26,518
20,075
28,021
8,786
5,230
14,016
1976
41,116
36,284
31,306
23,610
33,079
10,312
6,335
16,647
1979
47,522
41,789
36,094
27,144
38,137
11,839
7,439
19,277
1980
53,928
47,294
40,882
30,679
43,196
13,365
8,543
21,908
1981
55,986
50,458
42,564
32,030
45,259
13,840
10,240
24,080
1982
58,044
53,623
44,245
33,381
47,323
14,316
11,937
26,253
1983
60,101
56,787
45,927
34,732
49,387
14,791
13,634
28,425
1984
62,159
59,952
47,608
36,063
51,451
15,267
15,331
30,598
1985
64,217
63,116
49,290
37,434
53,514
15,742
17,025
32,770
1986
65,479
66,515
50,477
38,629
55,275
16,066
17,989
34,055
1937
66,741
69,915
51,665
39,824
57,036
16,390
18,951
35,341
1988
68,004
73,314
52,852
41,020
58,797
16,714
19,912
36,626
1989
69,266
76,714
54,040
42,215
60,558
17,038
20,874
37,912
1990
70,528
80,113
55,227
43,410
62,320
17,362
21,835
39,197
All Respiratory Admissions
ischemic
Total
Schwartz Schwartz
Shwartz
total
Heart
Expend.
(a coma
spokane
Pop®
N Haven Thurston
Disease
($10Q0s)
1970
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1971
6,401
5,879
6,196
4,627
2,749
5,170
1,270
57,703
1972
12,802
11,757
12,393
9,255
5,498
10,341
2,539
115,406
1973
19,202
17,636
18,589
13,882
8,248
15,511
3,809
173,109
1974
25,603
23,514
24,786
18,510
10,997
20,682
5,078
230,813
1975
32,004
25,393
30,982
23,137
13,746
25,852
6,348
288,516
1976
41.169
37,404
39,404
29,529
17,473
32,995
8,020
369,594
1977
50,333
45,415
47,826
35,921
21,201
40,139
9,692
450,673
1978
59,498
53,427
56,249
42,312
24,928
47,283
11,365
531,752
1979
68,662
61,438
64,671
48,704
28,656
54,426
13,037
612,831
1980
77,827
69,449
73,093
55,096
32,383
61,570
14,709
693,909
1981
81,349
74,187
75,756
57,354
33,245
64,378
15,225
734,075
1982
84,870
78,924
78,419
59,612
34,106
67,186
15.741
774,241
1963
88,392
83,662
81,081
61,869
34,968
69,994
16,257
814,407
1984
91,913
88.399
83,744
64,127
35,829
72,803
16,773
854,572
1985
95,435
93,137
86,407
66,385
36,691
75,611
17,289
894,738
1986
97,703
98,3(58
88,223
67,876
38,555
78,145
17,651
923,907
1987
99,972
103,598
90,039
69,368
40,420
80,679
18,013
953,076
1988
102,240
108,829
91,854
70,859
42,284
83,213
18,374
982,244
1989
104,509
114,059
93,670
72,351
44,149
85,747
18,736
1,011,413
1990
106,777
119,290
95,486
73,842
46,013
88,282
19,098
1,040.581
A.9
-------
Pb-Relatecl Health Impacts (excluding IQ)
Hypertension and Coronary Heart Disease
Table 6 presents cases of Pb-related hypertension and coronary heart disease for 1975,
1980,1985, and 1990 from 812 table D-13. Cases for other years are derived by linear
interpolation (and assuming 0 for 1970).
In the 812 report, a case of hypertension is valued at $681 (since the "cases" of
hypertension are really "numbers of people with hypertension in any year" (as opposed to, e.g.,
"individuals first diagnosed with hyperension"), then the valuation is $681 per year). This
valuation includes physician care, drugs, and hospitalization costs ("avoided costs" in Table 6), as
well as lost work days. Or. average, each case of hypertension causes 0.8 lost work days (see pg.
G-9 of the 812 report). Since the 812 study values WLDs at $83 per c ay, the implicit WLD
component of the $681 value is 0,8*$83 (or $66.40), and the remainder ($614.60) represents
avoided costs. In Table 6, each hypertension case produces $614.60 in costs and 0.8 work-loss
days.
Table 6. Avoided Costs ami Work-Loss-Days from Pb-Related Hypertension and Coronary Heart
Disease
(d-13)
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1961
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
0
166,060
332,120
498,179
664,239
630,299
1,719,639
2,608,979
3,498,319
4,387,659
5,276,999
1,239,022
7,201,045
8,163,069
9,125,092
10,087,115
10,599,067
11,111,019
11,622,972
12,134,924
12,646,876
Hypertension
avoided
costs
(SlOOOs;
0
102,060
204,121
306,181
408,241
510,302
1,056,890
1,603,478
2,150,067
2,696,655
3,243,244
3,834,503
4,425,763
5,017,022
5,608,281
6,199,541
6.514,187
6,828,833
7,143,478
7,458,124
7.772,770
WLDs
0
132,848
265,696
398,544
531,391
664,239
1,375,711
2,087,183
2,798,655
3,510,127
4,221,589
4,991,218
5,760,836
6,530,455
7,300,073
8,069,692
8,479,254
6,888,816
9,298,377
9,707,939
10,117,501
Coronary Heart Disease
avoided
costs
($1000s)
0
13,655
(d-13)
cases
0
263
525
788
1,050
1,313
2,739
4,165
5,592
7,018
8,444
10,089
11,735
13,380
15,026
16,671
17,551
18,430
19,310
20,189
21,069
27,310
40,966
54,621
68,276
142,438
216,601
290,763
364,926
439,068
524,649
610,210
695,770
781,331
866,892
912,631
958,370
1,004,110
1,049,849
1,095,588
mm
0
11,292
22.584
33,875
45,167
56,459
117,786
179,112
240,439
301,765
363,092
433,844
504,596
575,349
646,101
716,853
754,678
792,499
830,321
868,144
905,967
A. 10
-------
The valuation for coronary heart disease (CHD) in the 812 report, $52,000 per case, is a
COI estimate that excludes forgone earnings due to WUDs. The report provides some discussion
of possible magnitude of foregone earnings (noting that the magnitude varies inversely with the age
of the affected person, and that it could be as great as the COI estimate for some age groups), but
does not provide a "best estimate."
Tolley (1994) provides an estimate of "restricted activity days" for a variety of diseases,
including an estimate of 43 RADs for CHD.3 Kenkel (the author of the relevant chapter) notes that
a RAD can "range from reduced activity alone to a day of work loss to a day of bed disability,"
but that "the RADs for the more serious conditions may reflect a greater restriction of activity than
the RADs for the minor conditions." Based on the assertion that CHD is "one of the more serious
conditions," I've assumed that Kenkel's CHD RAD is equivalent to g WLD in the 812 study.
Thus, each case of CHD is associated with 43 WLDs as well as $52,000 in expenditure. Note
that, at $83 per WLD, this implies $3,600 in lost income per CHD case, a magnitude somewhat
smaller than those discussed in the "CHD-related lost earnings" paragraph of the 812 study (see
page G-ll).
Stroke
Table 7 presents cas-ss of Pb-related initial cerebrovascular accident and atherothrombotic
brain infarction (the two types of stroke are summed in Table 7) for men and for women for 1975,
1980, 1985, and 1990 taken from 812 table D-13. Cases for other years are derived by linear
interpolation (and assuming 0 for 1970). The 812 study values avoided stroke for men as
$200,000 per case, and for women as $150,000 per case (see 812 Table 1-2). The valuation
includes medical expenditures and reduced earnings - presumably, the gender-based difference is
due to differences in labor market participation (although it is possible that there are differences in
medical expenditure). For computational simplification, each female stroke case (valued at 75%
of a male stroke case) has been redefined here as 3/4 of a male case (valued at 100% of a male
stroke case). For example, 100 female stroke cases valued at $150,000 per case (for a total value
of $15 million) would be redefined as 75 cases valued at $200,000 (for a total value of $15
million). The two types of cases are then summed (see the "m+3/4f" column in Table 7), to be
valued at $200,000 per case.
The source study used for stroke valuation in the 812 report* divided lifetime cost of a first
stroke into four components: Indirect costs (i.e., reduced earnings) and three categories of direct
medical expenditure ("acute care", "long-term ambulatory care", and "nursing home" costs). In
Table 7, below, each stroke case is assumed to cause two years of acute care, followed by ten
years of ambulatory care, followed by ten years of nursing home care. Therefore, in 1972 (for
example), there are 356 acute care cases, which is the sum of 1971 and 1972 stroke cases (from
3 Tolley, Kenkel, and Fabian (eds), "Valuing Health for Policy: An Economic Approach," 1994. See esp. pps. 69-70.
4 Taylor, et ah, Lifetime Cost of Stroke in the United States. Stroke, 1996; 27:1459-1466.
A.ll
-------
the column "m+3/4f"). In 1973, there are 594 acute care cases (which is the sum of 1972 and
1973 stroke cases), and 119 ambulatory care cases (i.e., stroke cases from 1971).
A.12
-------
e 7. Avoided Costs and Work-Loss-Days from Pb-Related Stroke
(d-13)
(d-13)
(2 yrs)
(3-12 yrs)
(13-22 yrs)
(10 yra)
avoided
cases
cases
acute
smb.
NH
wlc
costs
men
women
m+3/4f
cases
cases
cases
cases
($1000s)
WLOs
1970
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1971
88
41
119
119
0
0
119
2,245
16,603
1972
176
82
238
356
0
0
356
6,736
49,810
1973
265
122
356
594
119
0
713
11,576
©9,620
1974
353
153
475
832
356
0
1,188
16,765
166,034
1975
441
204
594
1,069
713
0
1,782
22,304
249,051
1976
905
421
1,221
1,815
1,188
0
3,003
37,793
419,675
1977
1,370
637
1,848
3,069
1,782
0
4,851
63,235
677,908
1978
1,834
854
2,475
4,322
3,003
0
7,325
90,519
1,023,749
1979
2,299
1.070
3,101
5,576
4,851
0
10,427
119,646
1,457,198
1980
2,763
1 287
3,728
6,830
7,325
0
14,155
150,616
1,978,254
1931
3,274
1 527
4.419
8,148
10,427
0
18,455
184,643
2,579,288
1982
3,785
1,767
5,110
9,530
14,155
0
23,328
221,725
3,260,299
1983
4,297
2,006
5,801
10,912
18,455
119
28,773
260,690
4,021,287
1984
4,808
2,246
6,492
12,294
23,328
356
34,790
301,537
4,862,252
1985
5,319
2,486
7,184
13,676
28,773
713
41,380
344,266
5,783,194
1986
5,578
2,601
7,529
14,712
34,790
1,188
47,688
382,343
6,664,794
1987
5,838
2,715
7,874
15,403
41,380
1,782
53,714
415,768
7,507,052
1988
6,097
2,830
8,220
16,094
47,688
3,003
59,459
449,419
8,309,967
1989
6,357
2,944
8,565
16,784
53,714
4,851
64,923
483,295
9,073,541
1990
6.616
3,059
8,910
17,475
59,459
7,325
70,105
517,397
9,797,772
1991
8,910
64,923
10,427
65,685
376,793
9,180,135
1992
70,105
14,155
60,575
229,888
8,465,918
1993
65,685
18,455
54,774
224,120
7,655,120
1994
60,575
23,328
48,281
217,282
6,747,741
1995
54,774
28,773
41,098
209,373
5,743,782
1996
48,281
34,790
33,569
200,394
4,691,557
1997
41,098
41,380
25,695
190,345
3,591,067
1998
33,569
47,688
17,475
178,808
2,442,310
1999
25,695
53,714
8,910
165,782
1,245,288
2000
17,475
59,459
0
151,268
0
2001
8,910
64,923
0
135,266
0
2002
0
70,105
0
117,776
0
2003
0
65,685
0
110,352
0
2004
60,575
0
101,766
0
2005
54,774
0
92,020
0
2006
48,281
0
81,113
0
2007
41,098
0
69,044
0
2008
33,569
0
56,396
0
2009
25,695
0
43,167
0
2010
17,475
0
29,356
0
2011
8,910
0
14,969
0
A.13
-------
Taylor et al. found that indirect costs accounted for 58% of lifetime stroke cost. Acute
care costs account for 45% of lifetime medical costs, while long-term ambulatory care and nursing
home costs account for 35% and 17.5% (respectively) of lifetime costs.5 Assuming a total
valuation per stroke case of $200,000, lifetime medical costs would be $84,000 (i.e., 42% of the
total), and reduced earnings would be $116,000 (i.e., 58%). Acute care accounts for 45% of
medical costs, which is $37,800 over two years, or $18,900 per year for two years. Ambulatory
care accounts for 35% of medical costs, which is $29,400 over ten years, or $2,940 per year for
ten years. Nursing home care is assumed to account for 20% of medical costs, which is $16,800
over ten years, or $1,680 per year for ten years. The avoided costs (thousands) per year in Table
7 is equal to:
[(acute cases)* 18.9] + [(amb cases)* 2.94] + [(nh cases)* 1.68].
Table 7 assumes that the work loss days associated with stroke are spread evenly over a
ten-year period. The reported "WLD cases" for 1979 (for example) would be the sum of all
stroke cases (in column "m+3/4f') from 1971 to 1979 (i.e., the number of people who suffer
WLDs during a year is equal to the numer of inital stroke cases during that year and the preceding
nine years). Applying the "ten year" assumption, $116,000 of lost income per stroke case is equal
to $11,600 per case per year for ten years. At $83 per work-loss day (which is the value used in
the 812 study), $11,600 in reduced annual earnings represents almost 140 WLDs per year. The
final column in Table 7 ("WLDs") gives WLD cases/year times $11,600/WLDcase/year divided
by $83/WLD.
5Note that Table 7 reflects
-------
Pb/IQ Effects
Avoided Costs of Compensatory Education
The Section 812 report presents an
estimate of reduced lifetime expenditure on
compensatory education due to reduced Pta-
related IQ decrements (the 812 report assumes
that children with IQ scores more than two
deviations below the mean score (IQ scores
are normalized with a mean-100 and standard
deviation=15) require special compensatory
education during their school years). Table 8
presents cases of Pb-reiated "IQ<70" for
1975,1980, 1985, and 1990 from 812 table D-
13. Cases for other years are derived by
linear interpolation (and assuming 0 for 1970).
Annual IQ<70 "cases" in the 812
report are the number ot infants (i.e., less than
one year old) affected by airborn Pb in that
year. It is assumed that education expenditures
are affected for each child for the 12-year
period of ages seven to eighteen. The
"cumulative cases" column in Table 8 presents
the number of children (each year) for whom
compensatory education costs have changed
(for that year). For example, in 1978,
education costs differ only for that cohort born
in 1971; while the 1979 result is for 1971
cases plus 1972 cases. By 2009,
compensatoty education costs are no longer
affected, since those bora in 1990 are 19 years
old in 2009.
The Section 812 report assumed a per-
year cost of compensatory education of
$6,318. That per-unit cost is multiplied by the
number of "cumulative cases" to derive the
"cost avoided" in Table 8.
Table 8. Avoided Compensatory Education Costs
Due To Reduced Exposure to Pb (number of
cases, and thousands of $1990)
($1000)
(0-13)
cumulative
cost
I§3£
oases
cases
^voided
1970
0
0
0
1971
756
0
0
1972
1,512
0
0
1973
2,268
0
0
1974
3,024
0
0
1975
3,780
0
0
1976
7,039
0
0
1977
10,298
0
0
1978
13,556
756
4,776
1979
16,815
2,268
14,329
1980
20,074
4.536
28,658
1981
23,363
7,560
47,764
1982
26,652
11,340
71,646
1983
28,942
18,379
116,117
1984
33,231
28,676
181,177
1985
36,520
42,233
266,827
1986
38,295
59,048
373,065
1987
40,069
79,122
499,893
1988
41,844
102,485
647,501
1989
43,618
129,138
815,891
1990
45,393
158,323
1,000,286
1991
190,042
1,200,685
1992
224,294
1,417,069
1993
259,565
1,639,929
1994
295,854
1,869,204
1995
330,659
2,089.102
1996
363,S80
2,299,623
1997
395,816
2,500,767
1998
379,001
2,394,528
1999
358,927
2,267,701
2000
335,564
2,120,092
2001
308,911
1,951.702
2002
278,970
1,762,531
2003
245,739
1,552,579
2004
209,219
1,321,846
2005
170,924
1,079,900
2006
130,855
826,743
2007
89,011
562,374
2008
45,393
286,793
2009
0
0
A. 15
-------
Earnings. 10. and Pb Exposure
The Section 812 report presents an
estimate of increased lifetime earnings due to
reduced Pb-related IQ decrements (reductions
in airborne Pb cause reductions in blood-lead
levels, resulting in improved IQ scores, which
are then associated with greater lifetime
income). Table 9 (to the right) presents the
Pb-related avoided aggregate IQ point
decrements for 1975,1980,1985, and 1990
from 812 table D-13. Point decrements for
other years are derived by linear interpolation
(and assuming 0 for 1970).
Annual IQ point loss "cases" in the
812 report are the number of infants (i.e., those
less than one year old) affected by airbom Pb
in that year, times the average number of IQ
points (eventually) lost per child (i.e., it is the
aggregate number of IQ points, rather than the
number of children affected). It is assumed
that Pb exposure (on infants) has no effect on
income until adulthood (i.e., age 18), and the
effect continues until age 65, The "cumulative
points (adults)" column in Table 9 reflects this
lagged effect. There is no impact until 1989,
at which time those exposed in 1971 are
affected (as 18-year olds). In 1990, adults born
Table 9. Pb-Related IQ Decrements in Children,
and Lagged Effects in Adults, 1970-1990
(D-13) Cumulative
Year
Points
Points (adults)
1970
0
0
1971
205,698
0
1972
411,397
0
1973
617,095
0
1974
822,794
0
1975
1,028,492
0
1976
1,829,025
0
1977
2,629,558
0
1978
3,430,091
0
1979
4,230,624
0
1980
5,031,157
0
1981
5,736.811
0
1962
6,442,465
0
1983
7,148,118
0
1984
7,853,772
0
1985
8,559.426
0
1966
8,923,194
0
1987
9,288,963
0
1988
9,®50,731
0
1989
10,014,500
205,698
1990
10,378.268
617,095
in 1971 and 1972 are affected.
A.16
-------
Table 10 is a continuation of and
extension of Table 9. The first data column,
"Cumulative Points (adults)." is also found in
Table 9 (note that the data entries for 1989 and
1990 are identical in the two tables). The
table ends in the year 2056, when those
exposed (as infants) to airborne Pb in 1990
would be more than 65 years old, and
presumably out of the labor force. Between
2008 and 2036, all of those exposed (as
infants) between 1971 and 1990 would be
between 18 and 65 years old - therefore, the
"cumulative points (adults)" measure is
unchanged during those years (i.e., at
104,230,179 points).
The Section 812 report assumes a
discounted lifetime income change (i.e.,
discounted to the time of exposure as an
infant) of $2,957 per IQ point (using a 5%
discount rate). Converting to an annual
undiscounted flow from age 18 to age 65 (and
assuming, for simplicity, a constant per-year
flow) gives an annuity of $377 per IQ point
per year. The "Income Lost" column of Table
10 converts the cumulative !Q point effect on
adults to an income measuic, by multiplying
the data in the "Cumulative Points (adults)"
column by $377/point. For example, reduced
Pb exposure of infants in 1971 resulted in an
aggregate 205,698 IQ point increase among
18-year-olds in 1980, which caused an
increased income of $77,548,000 in 1989.
Increased income due to a reduction in
Pb-exposure can be thought of as either a
change in productivity or as a change in
quantity of work. In the third data column of
Table 10, the annual income change is
converted to "avoided work loss days" by
applying a valuation of $83 per work-loss
day. Thus, for example, the $77,548,000
income increase in 1989 is the equivaent of
[$77,548,000/$83 =] 934,317 avoided work
loss days.
Table 10. Pb-Related Income Changes and Work
1
a
£
Cumulative
($10005)
Work
Points faduilst
Income Lost
Loss Davs
1989
205,696
77,548
934,317
1990
617,095
232,645
2,802,950
1991
1,234,190
465,290
5,605,901
1992
2,056,984
775,483
9,343,168
1993
3,085,476
1,163,224
14,014,752
1994
4,914,501
1,852,787
22,322,492
1995
7,544,059
2,844,110
34,266,388
1996
10,974,150
4,137,255
49,846,440
1997
15,204,774
5,732,200
69,062,648
199B
20,235,931
7,628,946
91,915,012
1999
25,972,742
9,791,724
117,972,574
2000
32,415,206
12,220,533
147,235,335
2001
39,563,325
14,915,373
179,703,295
2002
47,417,097
17,876,246
215,376,453
2003
55,976,523
21,103,149
254,254,809
2004
64,899,717
24,467,193
294,785,463
2005
74,186,680
27,968,378
336,968,415
2006
83,837,411
31,606,704
380,803,664
2007
93,851,911
35,382,170
426,291,210
2008
104,230,179
39,294,777
473,431,054
2036
104,230,179
39,294,777
473,431,054
2037
104,024,481
39,217,229
472,496,737
2038
103,613,084
39,062,133
470,628,104
2039
102.995,989
38,829,488
467,825,153
2040
102,173,195
38,519,295
464,087,886
2041
101,144,703
38,131,553
459,416,302
2042
99,315,678
37,442,011
451,108,562
2043
96,686,120
36,450,667
439,164,666
2044
93,256,029
35,157,523
423,584,614
2045
89,025,405
33,562,578
404,368,406
2046
83,994,248
31,665,831
381,516,042
2047
78,257,437
29,503,054
355,458,480
2048
71,814,973
27,074,245
326,195,719
2049
64,666,654
24,379,404
293,727,759
2050
56,813,082
21,418,532
258,054,601
2051
48,253,656
18,191,628
219,176,245
2052
39,330,462
14,627,584
178,645,591
2053
30,043,499
11,326,399
136,462,639
2054
20,392,766
7,688,073
92,627,390
2055
10,378,268
3,912,607
47,139,844
2056
0
0
0
A.17
-------
Miscellaneous Effects
Table 11. PM-Related Work Loss Days and
Household Soiling Expenditures (number of days,
and thousands of $1990)
Direct Work-Loss Davs
The Section 812 report presents an
estimate of Work-Loss Day (WLD)
decrements due to improved ambient PM
concentrations. Table 11 (to the right)
presents the PM-related avoided WLDs for
1975,1980, 1985, and 1990 from 812 table
D-13. WLD decrements for other years are
derived by linear interpolation (and assuming
0 for 1970). It is possible that there is some
overlap (i.e., double-counting) between these
results and the implied WLDs from chronic
bronchitis (which is also related to PM
exposure).
Household Soiling Expenditures
Table 1-6 in the Section 812 Report
includes the estimate for avoided PM-soiling-
related expenditures for 1990 ($3,964
million). Unfortunately, there is no year-by-
year breakdown of avoided soiling
expenditures elsewhere in the 812 report.
Furthermore, there is insufficient detail in the
812 Report's air quality modeling results to
allow a recalculation of the soiling
expenditure estimate. Therefore, an indirect
estimation approach is taken here: it is assumed that avoided soiling expenditures vary each year
in linear relation to the change in work loss days (which, ike soiling, is dependent only on
ambient PM concentrations Y6 Specifically, soiling expenditures in year X are assumed to be equal
to WLDs in year X, times the ratio of 1990 soiling expenditure divided by 1990 WLDs
($3,964,000/22,562,752 days).
-------
Changes in Productivity of Workers Engaged in Strenuous Outdoor T^hnr
Table 1-3 (page 1-17 ) of the 812 Study
reports the 1990 present value (@ 5%) of the
1970 - 1990 flow of avoided ozone-related
productivity losses for workers engaged in
strenuous outdoor labor (e.g., agricultural
workers). Unfortunately, no single-year
estimate is presented in the 812 study, so an
indirect estimation for single-year productivity
losses is employed here: annual productivity
loss is assumed to vary linearly with annual
"15% FEV decrease" (both productivity loss
and FEV decrease depend exclusively on
ozone concentrations).
The Section 812 report presents an
estimate of avoided pulmonary function
decrements (measured by "forced expiratory
volume in one second" (FEV)) due to
improved ambient ozone concentrations.
Table 12 (to the right) presents the ozone-
related avoided "million person-days with
decreased FEV by 15% or more" for 1975,
1980, 1985, and 1990 from 812 table D-15
(page D-47). Avoided pulmonary function
decrements for other years are derived by
linear interpolation (and assuming 0 for 1970).
Table 12. Avoided Ozone-Related Productivity
Decreases and Work-Loss Days
(d-15)
(1-3)
annual
15% FEV
prod.
prod.
@83/day
decrease
(Smiliforfl
($1,000)
WLD
1970
0
0
0
1971
11
8
101
1972
21
17
202
1973
32
25
302
1974
42
33
403
1975
53
42
504
1976
67
53
633
1977
80
63
763
1978
94
74
892
1979
107
85
1,021
19SO
121
95
1,151
1981
136
107
1,293
1982
1St
119
1,436
1983
166
131
1,578
1984
181
143
1,721
1985
196
155
1,864
1986
219
173
2,084
1987
242
191
2,305
1988
266
210
2,525
1989
289
228
2,746
1990
312
246
2,967
PV(1990)
3,801
3
3,000
The final row of Table 12 (labeled
"PV(1990)") gives the 1990 present value of the 1970-1990 stream of "million person days with
decreased FEV (15%)."7 This figure (i.e., 3,801 million) is used in conjuction with the annual
"pulmonary function decrements" and the 1990 PV of the annual productivity loss (i.e., $3 billion,
as reported in Table 1-3 of the 812 report) to derive year- iy-year productivity changes. For
example, the avoided productivity loss in 1990 ($246,000) is assumed to be the product of the
1990 pulmonary function decrement measure (312) and the ratio 3000/3801.
The final data column in Table 12 converts productivity loss to work loss days by applying
the per-WLD of $83. For example, in 1990, $246,000 in lost productivity divided by $83 per
WLD results in 2,967 work loss days.
7 This PV is used for computation only - it has little meaning by itself.
A.19
-------
Table 13. SUMMARY - Avoided Expenditures From Non-Fatal Health Impacts (Millions of $1990)
Not Rb-Related Pb-Related Total
congestive
chronic
hospital
household
hyper-
heart
compensatory
bronchitis
admissions
soiling
MSiSQ
disease
stroke
education
1970
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0
1971
9.8
57.7
244.8
102.1
13.7
2.2
0.0
430
1972
29.4
115.4
489.6
204.1
27.3
6,7
0.0
873
1973
58.8
173.1
734.4
306.2
41.0
11.6
0.0
1,325
1974
88.0
230.8
979.2
408,2
54.6
16.8
0.0
1,788
1975
147,0
288.5
1,224.0
510.3
68.3
22.3
0.0
2,260
1976
212.7
369.6
1,584.0
1,056.9
142.4
37.8
0.0
3,403
1977
295.2
450.7
1,944.1
1,603.5
216.6
63.2
0.0
<573
1978
394.4
531.8
2,304.1
2,150.1
290.8
90.5
4.8
5,766
1979
510.3
612.8
2,664.2
2,696.7
364.9
119.6
14.3
6,983
1980
643.0
693.9
3,024.2
3,243.2
439.1
150.6
28.7
8,223
1981
782.9
734.1
3,144.9
3,834.5
524.6
184.6
47.8
9.253
1982
930.1
774.2
3,265.6
4,425.8
610.2
221.7
71.6
10,299
1983
1.084.6
814,4
3,386.3
5,017.0
695.8
260.7
116.1
11,375
1984
1,246.3
854.6
3,507.1
5,608,3
781.3
301.5
181.2
12,480
1985
1,415.2
894.7
3,627.8
6,199.5
866.9
344.3
266.8
13.615
1986
1,585.8
923.9
3,695.0
6,514.2
912.6
382.3
373.1
14,387
1987
1,757.9
953.1
3,762.3
6,828.8
956.4
415.8
499.9
15,176
1988
1,931.6
982.2
3,829.5
7,143.5
1,004.1
449.4
847.5
15,988
1989
2,106.8
1.011.4
3,896.8
7.458.1
1,049.8
483.3
815.9
16,822
1990
2,283.7
1,040.6
3,964.0
7,772.8
1,095.6
517.4
1,000.3
17,674
1991
376.8
1,200.7
1,577
1992
229.9
1,417.1
1,647
1993
224.1
1,639.9
1,864
1994
217.3
1,869.2
2,086
1995
209.4
2,089.1
2,298
1996
200.4
2,299.6
2,500
1997
190.3
2,500.8
2,691
1998
178.8
2,394.5
2,573
1999
165.8
2,267.7
2,433
2000
151,3
2,120.1
2,271
2001
135.3
1,951.7
2,067
2002
117.8
1,762.5
1,880
2003
110.4
1,552-8
1,663
2004
101,8
1,321.8
1,424
2005
92,0
1,079.9
1,172
mm
81.1
826.7
908
2007
69.0
562.4
631
2008
56.4
286.8
343
2009
43.2
0.0
43
2010
29.4
29
2011
15.0
15
2012
0.0
0
A.20
-------
Table 14. SUMMARY - Avoided Work-Loss Days From Non-Fatal Health Impacts, 1970-1990
(millions of avoided WLDs)
Not Pb-Reiated Pb-Related Total
congestive
IQ-retated
chronic
direct
pro-
hyper-
heart
prod.
WLD
@83/day
t?ronchitiS
WLD
ductivity
tension
disease
stroke
toss
f millions!
1970
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0,0
0
1971
1.6
1.4
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.2
262
1972
4.8
2.8
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
7.9
659
1973
9.6
4.2
0-0
0.4
0.0
0.1
0,0
14.3
1,190
1974
16.0
5.6
0.0
0.5
0.0
0.2
0.0
22.4
1,856
1975
24.1
7.0
0.0
0.7
0.1
0.2
0.0
32.0
2,657
1976
34.8
9.0
0.0
1.4
0.1
0.4
0.0
45.8
3,796
1977
48.3
11.1
0.0
2.1
0.2
0.7
0.0
62.3
5,175
1978
64.6
13.1
0.0
2.8
0.2
1.0
0.0
81.8
6,786
1979
83.6
15.2
0.0
3.5
0.3
1.5
0.0
104.0
8,633
1960
105.3
17.2
0.0
4.2
0.4
2.0
0.0
129.1
10,714
1981
128.2
17.9
0.0
5.0
0.4
2.6
0.0
154.1
12,792
1982
152.3
18.6
0.0
5.8
0.5
3.3
0.0
180.4
14,977
1983
177.6
19.3
0.0
6.5
0.6
4.0
0.0
208,0
17,266
1984
204.1
20.0
0.0
7.3
0.6
4.9
0.0
236.9
19,661
1985
231.8
20.6
0.0
8.1
0.7
5.8
0.0
267.0
22,161
1986
259.7
21.0
0.0
8.5
0.8
6.7
0.0
296.6
24,621
1987
287.9
21.4
0.0
8.9
0.8
7.5
0.0
326.5
27,099
1988
316.3
21.8
0.0
9.3
0.8
8.3
0.0
356.6
29,596
1989
345.0
22.2
0.0
9.7
0.9
9.1
0.9
387.8
32,188
1990
374.0
22.6
0-0
10.1
0.9
9.8
2.8
420.2
34,676
A.21
-------
Table 15. SUMMARY - Avoided Work-Loss Days From Non-Fatal Health Impacts, 1991-2056
(millions of avoided WLDs)
Not Pb-Reiated
Pb-Related
Total
chronic direct pro-
bronehtiis WLD dyctiyj$X
congestive
hyper- heart
tension disease
1891
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
199?
1993
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
stroke
9.2
8.5
7.7
6.7
5.7
4.7
3.6
2.4
1.2
0.0
IQ-related
prod,
toss
5.6
9.3
14.0
22.3
34.3
49.8
69.1
91.9
118.0
147.2
179.7
215.4
254.3
294.8
337.0
380.8
426.3
473.4
WLD
imilaM
14.8
17.8
21.7
29.1
40.0
54.5
72.7
94.4
119,2
147.2
179.7
215.4
254.3
294.8
337.0
380.8
426.3
473.4
@83/day
(Smiilions)
1,227
1,478
1,799
2,413
3,321
4,527
6,W0
7,832
9.895
12,221
14,915
17,876
21,103
24,467
27,968
31,607
35,382
39,295
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
473.4
472.5
470.6
467,8
464,1
459.4
451.1
439.2
423.6
404.4
381.5
355.5
326.2
293.7
258.1
219.2
178.6
136.5
92.6
47.1
0.0
473.4
472.5
470.6
467.8
464.1
458.4
451.1
439.2
423.6
404.4
381.5
355.5
326.2
293.7
258.1
219.2
178.6
136.5
92.6
47.1
0.0
39,295
39,217
39,062
38,829
38,519
38,132
37,442
36,451
35,158
33,563
31,666
29,503
27,074
24,379
21,419
18,192
14,828
11,326
7,688
3,913
0
* Results are unchanged from 2008 to 2036.
A. 22
-------
Appendix B
Benefit Extensions to 2100:
Analytical Alternatives
B.l
-------
The graphic below outlines different possible scenarios for the treatment of costs (pollution
control expenditures) and benefits (avoided medical expenditures and lost labor productivity)
Time
Soanarto ft* BvtfronmentaF Bparttfures * A
Scenario for Avokted Oarrages (esftsflts}» Bl or Mo* B3
At issue is
how to handle future projections of costs and benefits in the model.
Costs represent pollution control expenditures (as a percent of total production costs).
Benefits represent avoided medical expenditures, productivity losses, and decreased labor supply
(as percents of totals).
For costs, the model incorporates initial large investment in pollution control capital (new and
retrofits of existing capital) that decline with time to the marginal level of new or replacement
capital by 1990. For future years, additional capital investment is replacing capital that wears
out, so the 1990 capital investment in pollution control (expressed as a percent of total investment)
is used to project future pollution control investments (Line A in the figure above). Operating and
maintenance expenditures by sector were expressed as fractions of total production costs and this
fraction also was presumed to reach a steady-state magnitude by 1990. Hence, compliance to the
CAA involves a continuing but constant fraction of each dollar invested in new capital goods (with
this new capital devoted strictly to pollution control) and a continuing but constant diversion of
unit production costs to operate and maintain this equipment.
For benefits, there are several options.
Since the goal is to show what the market would look like absent the pollution control investments,
foregone benefits (damages) are introduced into the model.
B.2
-------
The damages increase in time relative to foregone improvements in air quality conditions. When
the model reaches 1990, there is the need to decide how to treat the stream of future benefits
beyond 1990.
B1 = assumes that all damages other than some Pb health effects stop. The IQ, compensatory
education and stroke health effects continue though at a decreasing rate for each age cohort affected
in the benefits model. The data appearing in Appendix A follows this convention.
B2 = assumes that all darr"ge~ continue to grow into the future as the economy, population and
emissions grow into the future unchecked. These calculations have not been prepared under the
1970-1990 retrospective scenario. (NOTE: As far as can be determined from the prospective
report, the benefits estimates prepared under the 1990-2010 analysis did not develop separate
streams of benefits for the pre-1990 CAAA pattern of regulations and the post-1990 CAAA
regulations. There are data reported on the differences in emissions, but there appears no
information showing incremental changes in health effects or monetary benefit estimates.)
B3 = assumes that damages continue into the future, but remain fixed at the 1990 level. This would
imply that a presumed "threshold" of damages had been reached (e.g., factors in the economy
would constrain damages to some fixed level, in this case arbitrarily equated with 1990
conditions).
Of these three, the second (B2) offers the most meaningful way to represent the long-run
consequences foregoing the Clean Air Act's enactment. This is particularly the case in view of the
long-term continuation of policy costs.
B.3
-------
Appendix C
Benefit Extensions to 2100: Data
c.i
-------
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
J978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
S988
1989
1990
1991
3992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
20)3
PM MORTALITY
total
2%
30-34
4%
35-44
6%
45-54
13%
55-64
24%
65-74
AGE GROUP
29% 22%
75-84 85+
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
11.753
235
470
705
1,528
2,821
3,408
2,586
23,506
470
940
1,410
3,056
5,641
6,817
5,171
35,258
705
1,410
2,116
4,584
8,462
10,225
7,757
47.011
940
1,88(1
2,82!
6,til
11,283
13.633
10,342
58.764
1,175
2.351
3,526
7,639
14,103
17,042
12.928
76,188
1,524
3,048
4371
9,904
18,285
22,095
16.761
93,612
1.872
3,744
5,617
12,170
22,467
27,147
20395
111,036
2,221
4,441
6,662
14,435
26,649
32,200
24,428
128,460
2.569
5,138
7,708
16,700
30,830
37,253
28,261
145,884
2,918
5,835
8,753
18,965
35,012
42,306
32,094
150,636
3,013
6,025
9,038
19383
36,153
43.684
33,140
135,387
3,108
6,215
9,323
20,200
37,293
45,062
34,185
160,139
3,203
6,406
9.608
20,818
38,433
46.440
35,231
164,890
3,298
6,596
9,893
21.436
39,574
47,818
36.276
169,642
3,393
6,786
10.179
22,053
40,714
49,1%
37321
172,421
3,448
6,897
10,345
22,415
41381
50,002
37,933
175,20!
3304
7.008
10,512
22,776
42,048
50,808
38344
177,980
3,560
7,119
10,679
23,137
42.715
51,654
39,156
180,760
3,615
7,230
10,846
23,499
43,382
52,420
39.767
183,539
3,671
7.342
lt,012
23,860
44,049
53,226
40,379
185,51?
3,710
7,421
11,131
24,117
44324
53,800
40,814
187,627
3,753
7,505
1 i ,258
24,392
45,031
54,412
41,278
189.651
3,793
7.586
11.379
24,655
45,516
54,999
41,723
191.523
3,830
7,661
11,491
24.898
45.965
53342
42,135
193.344
3,867
7,734
11,601
25,135
46,403
56,070
42336
195,129
3,903
7,805
11,708
25,367
46,831
56,587
42,928
197,008
3,940
7,880
11,820
25,611
47,282
57,132
43.342
198,888
3,97 S
7,956
51,933
25,855
47,733
57.678
43,755
200,743
4,015
8,030
12,045
26,097
48,178
58.215
44,163
202,572
4,051
8,103
12,154
26,334
48,617
58,746
44,566
204,409
4,088
8,176
12.265
26,573
49,058
59,279
44,970
206.251
4,125
8,250
12,375
26,813
49300
59.813
45.375
208,085
4,162
8323
12,485
27,051
49,940
60,345
45,779
209,901
4,198
8396
12,594
27,287
50.376
60,871
46,178
211,703
4,234
8,468
12,702
27,521
50,809
61,394
46,575
213.497
4,270
8,540
12.810
27,755
51,239
61,914
46,969
215,285
4,306
8,611
12,917
27,987
51,668
62,433
47363
217,070
4.341
8,683
13,024
28.219
52,097
62,950
47,755
218,856
4377
8,754
13.131
28,453
52.525
63,468
48,148
220,641
4,413
8,826
13,238
28,683
52.954
63,986
48,541
222.435
4,449
8,897
13,346
28.916
53384
64306
48,936
224.248
4.485
8,970
13.455
29,152
53,819
65,032
49334
226,077
4322
9,043
13365
29.390
54,258
65,562
49,737
C.2
-------
20 S 4
2015
2016
2017
2018
2059
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2012
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2W2
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
PM MORTALITY
total
2%
30-34
4%
35-44
6%
45-54
13%
55-64
24%
65-74
AGEGROUP
29% 22%
75-84 85+
227,918
4,558
9,117
13,675
29,629
54,700
66,096
50,142
229,769
4,595
9,191
13,786
29,870
55,145
66,633
50,549
231,627
4.633
9.265
13.898
30,112
55,590
67,172
50,958
233,490
4,670
9,340
14,009
30,354
56,038
67.712
51,368
235,355
4.707
9,414
14,121
30,596
56,485
68,253
51.778
237,22!
4,744
9,489
14,233
30,839
56,933
68,794
52,189
239.084
4,782
9,563
14,345
31,081
57380
69,334
52,598
240,953
4,819
9,638
14,457
31,324
57,829
69.876
53.010
242,837
4,857
9,713
14,570
31,569
58.281
70,423
53,424
244,735
4,895
9,789
14,684
31.815
58.736
70.973
53.842
246,644
4,933
9,866
14,799
32,064
59.195
71.527
54,262
248,567
4,971
9,943
14,914
32,314
59.656
72.084
54,685
250.499
5,010
10,020
15,030
32,565
60,120
72,645
55,110
252,439
5,049
10,098
15,146
32,817
60,585
73.207
55,537
254,388
5,088
10,176
15,263
33.070
61,053
73,773
55,965
256,349
5,127
10,254
15,381
33,325
61.524
74,341
56397
258,320
5,166
10,333
15,499
33,582
61,997
74.913
56,830
260,291
5,206
10,412
15,617
33.838
62,470
75,484
57,264
262,250
5,245
10.490
15,735
34,092
62,940
76,052
57,695
264,198
5,284
10.568
15,852
34,346
63.408
76,617
58,124
266,138
5,323
10,646
15,968
34.598
63,873
77,180
58,550
268,069
5,361
10,723
16,084
34,849
64336
77,740
58,975
269,993
5,400
10,800
16,200
35,099
64,798
78,298
59,398
271,913
5,438
10,877
16,315
35,349
65.259
78,855
59,821
273,829
5.477
10,953
16,430
35498
65,719
79.410
60,242
275,744
5,515
11.030
16,545
35.847
66,178
79,966
60,664
277,657
5,553
11.106
16,659
36,095
66,638
80,520
61,085
279,571
5,591
11.183
16,774
36,344
67,097
81,075
61,506
281,487
5,630
11.259
16,8S9
36.593
67,557
81,631
61,927
283.406
5,668
11,336
17.004
36,843
68,017
82,188
62,349
285,328
5,707
11,413
17,120
37,093
68,479
82,745
62,772
287.258
5,745
11,490
17.235
37,343
68,942
83,305
63,197
289,194
5,784
11,568
17352
37.595
69,406
83,866
63,623
291,138
5,823
11,646
17,4
-------
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
2072
2073
2074
2075
2076
2077
2078
2079
2080
208!
2082
2083
2084
2085
2086
2087
2088
2039
2090
2091
2092
2093
2094
2095
2096
2097
2098
20*99
2100
PM MORTALITY
total
30-34
4%
33-44
6%
45-54
13%
55-64
24%
65-74
AGEGROUP
29% 22%
75-84 85+
317.877
6,358
12.715
19,073
41,324
76.290
92,184
69,933
320.092
6.402
12,804
19,205
41,612
76,822
92,827
70,420
322,333
6,447
! 2,893
19,340
41,903
77,360
93,477
70,913
324,601
6,492
12,984
19,476
42,198
77,904
94,134
71,412
326,893
6,538
13,076
19,614
42,496
78,454
94,799
71,917
329,212
6,584
13,168
19,753
42,798
79.011
95,471
72,427
331.555
6,631
13,262
19,893
43,102
79,573
96,151
72,942
333,920
6,678
13,357
20,035
43,410
80,141
96,837
73,462
336,309
6,726
13,452
20,179
43,720
80,714
97,530
73,988
338,719
6,774
13,549
20323
44,034
81,293
98,229
74,518
341,149
6,823
13,646
20.469
44,349
81,876
98,933
75,053
343,598
6,872
13,744
20,616
44,668
82,464
99,644
75,592
346.064
6,921
13,843
20,764
44,988
83,055
100,359
76,134
348,547
6,97!
13,942
20,913
45,311
83,651
101,079
76,680
351,046
7,021
14,042
21,063
45,636
84,251
101,803
77,230
353,558
7,071
14,142
21,213
45,963
84,854
102,532
77,783
356,084
7,122
14,243
2i,365
46,291
85,460
103,264
78,339
358,623
7,172
14,345
21,517
46,621
86,069
104,001
78,897
361,173
7,223
14,447
21,670
46,953
86,682
104,740
79,458
363,734
7.275
14,549
21,824
4735
87,296
105,483
80,022
366,307
7,326
14,652
21,978
47,620
87,914
106,229
80,588
368,890
7,378
14,756
22,133
47,956
88,534
106,978
81,156
371,484
7,430
14,859
22,289
48,293
89,156
107,730
81,726
374,089
7,482
14,964
22,445
48,632
89,78!
108,486
82300
376,703
7,534
15.068
22,602
48,971
90,409
109,244
82,875
379,330
7,587
15,173
22,760
49,313
91,039
110,006
83,453
381,967
7,639
15,279
22,918
49,656
91,672
110,770
84,033
384,615
7,692
15,385
23,077
50,000
92,308
111,538
84,615
387,275
7,746
15,491
23,237
50,346
92,946
112,310
85,201
389,947
7,799
15,598
23,397
50.693
93,587
113,085
85,788
392,630
7,853
15,705
23,558
51,042
94,231
113,863
86.379
395,326
7,907
35.813
23,720
51,392
94,878
114,645
86.972
398,033
7,96!
15,921
23,882
51,744
95,528
115,430
87J567
400.754
8,015
16,030
24.045
52,098
96,381
116,219
88,166
403,485
8,070
16,139
24,209
52,453
96,836
117,011
88,767
406,229
8,125
16.249
24,374
52,810
97,495
117,806
89,370
408,984
8.180
16,359
24,539
53,168
98,156
i! 8,605
89,976
411,750
8,235
16,470
24,705
53,528
98,820
! 19.408
90,585
414,528
8.291
16,581
24,872
53,889
99.487
120,213
91,196
417,315
8,346
16,693
25,039
54,251
100,156
121,021
91,809
420. SI 2
8,402
16,804
25,207
54.615
100,827
121,832
92.425
C,4
-------
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
19%
1997
199S
1993
2000
200!
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
PB MORTALITY
infant
40-54
MEN
55-64 65-74
iota!
(40-74)
45-54
WOMEN
55-64 65 74
UHaS
(45-74)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
91
79
56
21
156
23
17
6
46
182
157
112
42
311
47
33
12
92
274
236
169
63
467
70
50
19
139
365
314
225 ¦
14
623
93
67
25
185
456
393
281
105
778
117
83
31
231
833
801
585
224
1,610
239
174
67
480
1,210
1,209
8S8
344
2,442
36!
265
103
728
1,588
1,618
1,191
464
3,273
483
356
139
977
1,965
2,026
1,495
5S4
4,105
605
446
574
1,225
2,342
2,434
1,798
704
4,936
727
537
210
1,474
2,660
2,897
2,120
852
5,869
865
633
254
1,752
2,978
3,359
2,443
999
6.801
1,003
729
298
2,031
3,297
3,822
2,765
1,147
7,734
1,141
826
342
2.309
3,615
4,284
3.088
1,294
8.666
1,279
922
386
2.588
3,933
4,747
3.410
1,442
9,599
1,417
1,018
430
2.866
4,135
5,009
3,523
1,528
10,060
1,494
1,051
456
3,000
4,337
5,271
3.636
1,614
10,521
1,570
1,083
481
3.134
4,540
5,533
3,749
1.700
10,982
1,647
1,116
506
3,269
4,742
5,795
3.862
1,786
11,444
1,723
1.148
531
3,403
4,944
6,058
3,975
1,872
11,905
1,800
1,181
556
3,537
4,997
6.123
4,018
1,893
12,033
1,819
1,194
562
3,575
5,054
6.193
4.064
1,914
12,170
1,840
1,207
569
3,616
5,109
6,259
4,107
1,935
12,301
1,860
1,220
575
3,655
5,159
6,321
4.148
1,954
12,423
1,878
1,232
580
3.691
5,208
6,381
4,187
1,972
12,541
1,896
1,244
586
3,726
5,256
6,440
4,226
1,991
12,657
1,913
1,256
591
3,760
5.307
6,502
4,267
2,010
12,779
1,932
1.268
597
3,797
5.357
6,564
4307
2,029
12.901
1,950
1,280
603
3,833
5,407
6.625
4.348
2,048
13,02)
1.968
1,292
608
3.869
5,457
6,686
4,387
2,067
13,140
1,986
1,303
614
3,904
5,506
6,746
4,427
2,085
13.259
2,004
1,315
620
3,939
5,356
6,807
4,467
2,104
13.378
2,022
U27
625
3,975
5,605
6.868
4,507
2,123
13,497
2,040
1,339
631
4,010
5,654
6,928
4.546
2,141
13,615
2.058
1,351
636
4,045
5,703
6,987
4.585
2.160
13.732
2,076
1,362
642
4,080
5,751
7,046
4,624
2,178
13,848
2,093
1,374
647
4,114
5,799
7,105
4.663
2J96
13.964
2,111
1385
652
4.1*9
5,847
7,164
4,701
2.214
14,080
2.129
1,397
658
4,183
5,895
7,223
4,740
2,233
14,196
2,546
1.408
663
4,238
5,943
7,282
4,779
2.251
14,311
2,164
1,420
669
4,252
5,992
7,341
4,817
2,269
14,428
2,181
1,431
674
4,287
6,041
7,401
4,857
2,288
14,545
2,199
1,443
680
4,321
6,090
7,462
4,896
2,306
14,664
2.217
1,455
685
4,357
6,139
7,522
4,936
2,325
14,784
2,235
1,467
691
4,392
C.5
-------
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
204?
2048
2049
2050
205!
20S2
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
PB MORTALITY
MEN
WOMEN
Caul
{(Ml
infant
40-54
55-64
65-74
(40-74)
45-54
55-44
65-74
(45-74)
6,189
7.583
4,976
2344
14,904
2,253
1,478
696
4,428
6,239
7,645
5.016
2,363
15,024
2,271
1,490
702
4,464
6,290
7,706
5,057
2.382
15,145
2,290
1,502
708
4.500
6,340
7,768
5,097
2.401
15,266
2308
1,514
713
4336
6,390
7,829
5,138
2,420
15,387
2,326
1,526
719
4,572
6,440
7,891
5,178
2,439
15,508
2,344
1,538
725
4,607
6,491
7,953
5.218
2,458
15,629
2363
1,550
730
4,643
6.541
8,015
5.259
2,477
15,751
2,381
U63
736
4,680
6,592
8,077
5,300
2,497
15,874
2,400
1,575
742
4,716
$,644
8.140
5.342
2,516
15,998
2,419
1,587
748
4,753
6,696
8,204
5.383
2,536
16.123
2.437
1,599
753
4,790
6,748
8,268
5.425
2,555
16,248
2,456
1,612
759
4,827
6.800
8.332
5,457
2.575
16,374
2,475
1,624
765
4,865
6,852
8,396
5.509
2,593
16,500
2.494
1,637
771
4,902
6.905
8,461
5,552
2.615
16,628
2,514
1,649
777
4,940
6,958
8,526
5,595
2,635
! 6,755
2,533
1,662
783
4,978
7,011
3,591
5.(,37
2,655
16,883
2,552
1,675
789
5,016
7.064
8.655
5.680
2,675
17,010
2,572
1,687
795
5,054
7,117
8,720
5,722
2,695
17,137
2,591
1,700
801
5.091
7,169
8,784
5,764
2,715
17,263
2,610
1,712
807
5,129
7,221
8,847
5.S36
2,735
17,388
2,629
1,725
812
5,166
7,273
8.9 II
5 J 47
2,754
17,513
2,647
1,737
818
5,203
7,325
8,974
5.SS9
2,774
17,637
2,666
1,750
824
5,240
7.376
9,038
5,930
2,793
17,761
2,685
1,762
830
5,277
7,428
9,101
5,972
2,813
17,886
2,704
1,774
836
5,314
7,479
9,164
6.013
2.832
18,010
f *eJ
1,787
842
5,351
7,531
9,227
6,055
2,852
18,134
2,741
1,799
847
5,388
7,582
9,290
{i.ii96
2,872
18,258
2,760
1,811
853
5,425
7,634
9354
ft, 138
2,891
18,383
2,779
1,824
859
5,462
7,686
9,417
6.1S0
2,91!
18,507
2,798
1,836
865
5,499
7,738
9,481
6,221
2,930
18,632
2,817
1,848
871
5,536
7,790
9.545
6,263
2,950
18,758
2,836
1,861
877
5,573
7,842
9,609
fi.~n5
2.970
18,884
2,855
1,873
882
5,611
7,895
9.673
6,348
2,990
19,011
2,874
1,886
888
5,648
7,948
9.718
6,390
3,010
19,138
2,893
1,899
894
5,686
8,001
9.803
6,433
3,030
19.267
2,913
1,911
900
5,724
8,055
9,869
6,476
3,051
19,396
2,932
1.924
906
5,763
8,109
9,936
6,520
3,071
19,526
2,952
1,937
912
5,801
8,164
10,003
6.564
3,092
19,658
2,972
1.950
919
5.&40
8,219
10.070
6,608
3,113
19,791
2.992
1,963
925
5,880
8,275
10,i38
6,653
3,134
19,925
3,012
1,977
931
5,920
8,331
10.207
6.6%
3,155
20,060
3,033
1,990
937
5.960
8,388
10.277
6,744
3,177
20,198
3,053
2,004
944
6,001
8,445
E 0,34 8
6,7 j»()
3,198
20,336
3,074
2,017
950
6,042
8304
10.419
6.837
3,220
20.477
3,096
2,031
957
6,084
8,563
30,491
6.884
3,243
20,619
3,117
2,045
963
6,126
C.6
-------
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
2072
2073
2074
2075
2076
2077
2078
2079
2080
2081
2082
2083
2084
2085
2086
2087
2088
2089
2090
2091
2092
2093
2094
2095
2096
2097
2098
2099
2100
PB MORTALITY
infant
8.622
8,683
8,744
8,806
8,868
8,931
8,995
9,059
9.124
9.190
9,256
9,322
9,389
9,456
9,524
9,592
9,660
9,729
9,798
9.867
9,937
10,007
1,077
,147
1,218
>,289
1.360
),432
10.504
10376
10,649
>,722
1.795
869
1.943
1,017
1,091
,166
.241
1,317
MEN
40-54 55-64 65-74
toed
(40-74)
WOMEN
45-54 55-64
65-74
total
(45-74)
10.564
10.638
10
10
10
10
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
U
11
11
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
713
789
865
943
021
100
179
259
340
422
504
586
669
752
36
920
005
090
175
261
347
433
520
607
694
782
870
12,959
13.048
13,137
227
317
407
498
590
681
773
13,866
6,932
6,981
030
080
130
181
232
284
336
388
7.441
7.495
7 J>49
7,603
7.657
7.712
7 767
7 822
7,878
".933
7.989
8.045
8,102
8,158
8,215
8.272
S330
8387
S.445
- ,503
8.562
S 620
8 679
S 738
8,798
8,158
8.H7
i.978
9.338
9jm
3,265
3,288
3,311
3335
3,358
3.382
3,406
3,431
3.455
3,480
3,505
3.530
3.556
3,581
3,607
K633
1,658
1,684
1.711
!,737
(,763
1,790
1,816
(,843
3,870
3,897
3,924
3,951
3,978
005
033
060
088
116
144
172
200
229
.257
4,286
20,762
20,908
21,055
21,203
21,354
21,506
21.659
21.814
21.970
22,128
22,287
22,447
22
22
22
23
23
23
23
23
23
24
24
24
24
24
24
25
25
25
25
25
25
26
26
26
26
26
27
27
608
770
933
097
261
427
593
760
927
096
265
434
605
776
947
120
293
467
642
818
994
171
349
528
707
888
068
250
3,139
3,161
3,183
3.205
3.228
3,251
2,060
2,074
274
298
321
345
369
393
418
442
467
,492
3.517
,542
567
592
617
643
668
694
720
745
771
798
824
850
876
903
930
956
983
010
038
,065
4,092
4.120
>,089
.103
M18
.133
,149
.164
.179
,195
!,2U
!,227
!,243
£.259
S.275
!,291
2,308
2,324
2,340
2,357
374
390
407
424
441
458
475
492
509
526
544
561
579
596
614
632
649
667
685
703
970
977
984
991
998
1,005
1
012
,019
.027
,034
041
,049
.056
,064
072
,079
,087
,095
.102
.110
.118
.126
,134
142
,150
.158
166
174
,182
.190
,198
206
215
,223
1.231
1.240
1.248
1,256
1,265
1,273
212
255
300
344
389
435
481
527
574
622
669
717
765
813
862
911
960
010
059
109
159
7.209
7,259
7,310
7.:
7.'
7,'
7,1
7,i
7,(
7,i
7/
7;
7.!
7,1
7,;
?,!
C.7
-------
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
199!
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
PM+PB MORTALITY
AGE GROUP
30-34 3 5-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85+
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
235
496
781
1,601
2,848
3,408
2,586
470
993
1,562
3,202
5,696
6,817
5,171
705
1,489
2,343
4,802
8,543
10,225
7,757
940
1,985
3,123
6,403
11,391
13,633
10,342
1.S7S
2,481
3,904
8,004
14,239
17,042
12,928
1,524
3,315
5,344
10,663
18,576
22,095
16,761
1,872
4,148
6,784
13,322
22,914
27,147
20,595
2,221
4,981
8,223
15,981
27,252
32,200
24,428
2,569
5,814
9,663
18,641
31,589
37,253
28,261
2,918
o,647
11,103
21,300
35,927
42,306
32,094
3,013
o,99l
11,834
22,336
37,259
43,684
33,140
3,108
7,335
12,566
23,373
38,590
45,062
34,185
3,203
7,680
13,297
24,409
39,922
46,440
35,231
3,298
3,024
14,029
25,445
41,254
47,818
36,276
3,393
3,368
14,761
26,482
42,586
49,196
37,323
3,448
3,567
15,179
26,989
43,365
50,002
37,933
3.504
3,765
15,597
27,495
44,143
50,808
38,544
3,560
3,964
16,015
28,002
44,921
51,614
39,156
3,615
3,162
16,433
28,509
45,700
52,420
39,767
3,671
9,361
16,850
29,016
46,478
53,226
40,379
3,710
9,462
17,032
29,329
46,979
53,800
40,814
3,753
9,569
17,226
29,662
47,513
54,412
41,278
3,793
9,672
17,412
29,982
48,026
54,999
41,723
3,830
•>,768
17,583
30,278
48,500
55.542
42,135
3,867
9,861
17,751
30,566
48,961
56,070
42,536
3,903
9,952
17,915
30,848
49,413
56,587
42,928
3,940
10,048
18,087
31,145
49,889
57,132
43,342
3,978
i 0,144
18,260
31,443
50,365
57,678
43,755
4,015
10,238
18,430
31,736
50.835
58,215
44,163
4,051
10,331
18,598
32,025
51,298
58,746
44,566
4,088
10,425
18,767
32,316
51,763
59.279
44,970
4,125
i 0,519
18,936
32,607
52,229
59,813
45,375
4,162
' 3,613
19,104
32,897
52,694
60,345
45,779
4,198
13,705
19,271
33,184
53,154
60,871
46,178
4,234
: 1,797
19,436
33,469
53,610
61,394
46,575
4,270
i 3,889
19,601
33,752
54,064
61,914
46,969
4,306
10,980
19,765
34,035
54,517
62,433
47,363
4.341
1! ,071
19,929
34,317
54,969
62,950
47.755
4,377
: 1,162
20,093
34,599
55,421
63,468
48,148
4,413
i 1,253
20,257
34,882
55,873
63,986
48,541
4,449
E,344
20,421
35,165
56,328
64,506
48,936
4,485
i 1,437
20,588
35,452
56,787
65,032
49,334
4,522
! 1,530
20,756
35,741
57,250
65,562
49,737
4,558
11,624
20,925
36,032
57,716
66,096
50,142
C.8
-------
2015
2016
2017
201S
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
PM+PB MORTALITY
AGE GROUP
infant
30-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65-74
75-84
85+
6,189
4495
11,719
21,095
36,323
58,185
66,633
50349
6.239
4,633
11,813
21,265
36,618
58,655
67,172
50,958
6,290
4,670
11,908
21,436
36,913
59,127
67,712
51,368
6340
4,707
12,003
21,608
37,208
59,600
68,253
51,778
6.390
4,744
12,099
21,779
37303
60,072
68,794
52,189
6,440
4,782
12.194
21,950
37,797
60,544
69,334
52398
6,491
4,819
12,289
22,122
38,093
61,017
69,876
53.010
6,541
4,857
12,385
22,295
38391
61,494
70.423
53,424
6,592
4,895
12,482
22,469
38,691
61,975
70,973
53,842
6,644
4.933
12,579
22,644
38,992
62,458
71327
54,262
6,6%
4,971
12,677
22,821
39,296
62,945
72,084
54,685
6.748
5,010
12.776
22,998
39,602
63.434
72,645
55,110
6,800
5,049
12,875
23,176
39,909
63,926
73,207
55,537
6,852
5,088
12,974
23355
40,217
64,419
73,773
55,965
6,905
5,127
13,074
23,535
40327
64,916
74341
56397
6,958
5,166
13,175
23,716
40,838
65.415
74,913
56,830
7,011
5,206
13,275
23,897
41,150
65,914
75,484
57,264
7,064
5,245
13375
24,077
41,460
66,410
76,052
57,695
7,117
5,284
; 3,474
24,256
41,768
66,903
76,617
58,124
7,169
5,323
! 3,573
24,434
42,074
67395
77,180
58350
7,221
5.361
13,672
24.611
42,380
67,884
77,740
58,975
7,273
5,400
13,770
24,788
42,684
68371
78,298
59,398
7,325
5,438
13,868
24,964
42,987
68,857
78,855
59,821
7,376
5,477
!3,966
25,140
43,290
69342
79,410
60,242
7,428
5315
14,063
25316
43,593
69,827
79,966
60,664
7,479
5353
14,161
25,491
43,895
70312
80320
61,085
7,531
5,591
14,259
25,667
44,198
70,796
81,075
61.506
7382
5,630
14.356
25.843
44,501
71,282
81,631
61,927
7,634
5.668
14,454
26,019
44,804
71.767
82,188
62,349
7.686
5,707
14,552
26,196
45,108
72,254
82.745
<52,772
7,738
5,745
14,651
26373
45,413
72.743
83,305
63,197
7,790
5.784
14,749
26350
45,719
73.233
83,866
63,623
7,842
5,823
14.848
26.729
46,027
73.725
84,430
64,050
7,895
5,862
i4,948
26,908
46,335
74,220
84,996
64.480
7,948
5,9Gi
: 5,048
27,089
46,646
74,718
85,567
64.913
8,001
' 5,941
: 5,149
27,270
46,959
75.219
86,140
65,348
8.055
5,986
: 5,251
27,453
47.274
75,724
86,718
65,786
8,109
6,021
: 5.353
27,638
47,592
76,233
87,301
66.228
8,164
6,061
.5,457
27,824
47,913
76,746
87,889
66,675
8,219
6,102
15,561
28,012
48336
77,265
88.483
67,125
8.275
6.S44
^ 5,667
28,202
48363
77.789
89,083
67380
1331
6,185
.5,773
28.394
48,894
78318
89,689
68,040
8,388
6,228
.5,881
28,588
49,228
78,853
90302
68,505
8,445
6,271
15,990
28,784
49,566
79.395
90,922
68.976
8,504
6,314
16,101
28,983
49.908
79,943
91,550
69,451
8,563
6358
16.212
29,184
50,254
80,497
92,184
69,933
C.9
-------
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2i)?0
2071
2072
2073
2074
2075
2076
2077
2078
2079
2080
208 S
2082
2083
2084
2085
am
2087
2088
2089
2090
209!
2092
2093
2094
2095
2096
2097
2098
2099
2100
PM+PB MORTALITY
AGE GROUP
infant
30-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65-74
75-84
85+
8,622
6,402
16,325
29387
50,604
81,058
92,827
70,420
8.683
6,447
16,439
29,593
50,958
81,625
93,477
70,913
8,744
6.492
16,555
29,801
51,317
82,199
94,134
71,412
S.8G6
6.538
16,672
30,012
51,679
82.780
94,799
71,917
8,868
6,584
16,790
30,225
52,046
83,367
95,471
72,427
8,931
6,631
16,910
30,440
52,416
83,960
96,151
72,942
8,995
6.678
17,030
30,657
52,790
84,559
96,837
73.462
9,059
6,726
17,152
30,876
53,168
85.164
97,530
73,988
9,124
6,774
17,275
31,097
53.549
85,775
98,229
74,518
9,190
6,823
17,399
31,320
53,933
86,390
98,933
75,053
9,256
6,872
17,524
31,545
54,320
SJ7.Q10
99,644
75392
9,322
6,921
17,650
31,772
54,710
87,635
100.359
76,134
9,389
6,971
17,776
32.000
55.103
88,263
101,079
76,680
9.436
7,021
17.904
32229
55,498
88.896
101,803
77,230
9,524
7.071
18.032
32,460
55,895
89,532
102,532
77,783
9,592
7,122
18,161
32.692
56,294
90,172
103.264
78339
9,660
7,172
18,290
32,925
56,695
90,815
104,001
78,897
9.729
7.223
18,420
33,159
57,099
91.461
104.740
79.458
9,798
7,275
18,551
33394
57,504
92.109
105,483
80.022
9,867
7,326
18,682
33,630
57,910
92,761
106,229
80388
9,937
7,378
18.814
33,867
58,319
93,415
106,978
81.156
10,007
7,430
18,946
34,105
58,729
94,072
107,730
81,726
10,077
7.482
19,079
34,345
59,140
94,731
108,486
82.300
10.147
7,534
19,212
34385
59354
95,393
109,244
82,875
10.218
7,587
19,346
34,826
59,969
96,059
110,006
83,453
10,289
7,639
19,481
35.068
60,386
96,726
110,770
84,033
10.360
7,692
19,616
35,311
60,805
97,397
111,538
84,615
10,432
7.746
19,752
35,555
61,225
98,071
112.310
85.201
10,304
7,799
19,888
35,801
61448
98.747
113.085
85.788
10,576
7,853
20.025
36,047
62,072
99.427
U 3,863
86379
10.649
7.907
20,162
36,294
62.498
100,109
114,645
86,972
10,722
7,961
20.300
36,543
62.926
100,795
113,430
87,567
10.795
8.015
20.439
36,793
63,356
101,484
116319
88,166
10.869
8.070
20,578
37,043
63,788
102,175
117,011
88.767
10,943
8.125
20,711
37,295
64,222
102,870
117,806
89.370
11,017
8,180
20.859
37.548
64,657
103368
118,605
89,976
11,091
8,235
21,000
37,802
65,094
104.268
119,408
90385
11,166
8,291
21,142
38,057
65,534
104,972
120,213
91,196
11.241
8.346
21,284
38,313
65,974
105,678
121,021
91.809
11,317
8,402
21.426
38,570
66,416
106386
121,832
92.425
C.10
-------
AVOIDED EXPENDITURES ($millions)
NON-Pb Pb Total
congestive
chronic
hospital
household
hyper-
heart
compensatory
bronchitis
admissions
soiling
tension
disease
stroke
education
1970
0,0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0,0
0.0
0
1971
9.8
57.7
244 8
102.1
13-7
2.2
0 0
430
1972
29.4
115.4
489.6
204.1
27.3
6.7
0.0
873
1973
58.8
173.1
734.4
306.2
41.0
11.6
0.0
1,325
1974
98.0
230.8
979.2
408.2
54.6
16.8
0.0
1,788
1975
147.0
288.5
1,224.0
510.3
68.3
22.3
0.0
2,260
1976
212.7
369.6
1,584.0
1,056.9
142.4
37.8
0.0
3,403
1977
295.2
450.7
1,944.1
1.603.5
2i6.6
63.2
0.0
4,573
1978
394.4
531.8
2,304.1
2,150,1
290.8
90.5
4.8
5,766
1979
510.3
612.8
2,664,2
2,696.7
364.9
119.6
14.3
6,983
1980
643,0
693.9
3.0242
3.243.2
439.3
150.6
28.7
8,223
1981
782.9
734.1
3.144.9
3,834.5
524.6
184.6
47.8
9,253
1982
930.1
774.2
3,265.6
4,425.8
610.2
221.7
71.6
10,299
1983
1,084.6
814.4
3,386.3
5,017.0
695,8
260.7
116.1
11,375
1984
1.246.3
854.6
3,507.1
5,608.3
781.3
301.5
181.2
12,480
1985
1,415.2
894.7
3,627.8
6,199.5
866.9
344.3
266.8
13,615
1986
1,585.8
923.9
3,695.0
6,514.2
912.6
382.3
373.1
14,387
1987
5,757.9
953.1
3,762,3
6,828.8
958.4
415.8
499 9
15,176
1988
1,931.6
982.2
3.829.5
7,143.5
1,004 1
449.4
647.5
i 5,988
1989
2.106.8
1.011.4
3.896.8
7,458.1
1,049.8
483.3
815.9
16,822
1990
2,283.7
1,040.6
3,%4.0
7,772.8
1.0956
517.4
1,000.3
17,674
1991
2,452.6
1,051.8
4,006.7
7,856.5
1,107.4
547.0
1,200.7
18,223
1992
2,613.8
1.063.8
4 052 3
7,945.9
1,120.0
572.3
1,417.1
18,785
1993
2,767.1
1,075.2
4,096.0
8,031.6
1.132.1
596.8
1,639.9
19,339
1994
2,912.5
1,085.8
4.136.4
8.110.9
1,143.2
620.3
1,869.2
19,878
I99S
3.049.8
1,096.2
4,175.8
8,188.0
1,154.1
642.8
2,089.1
20,396
1996
3,172.0
1,106.3
4,214.3 "
8,263.6
1,164.8
664.5
2,299.6
20,885
1997
3,279.4
U16.9
4,254.9
8,343,2
i,176.0
685.4
2JG0.B
21,357
1998
3,371.8
1.127.6
4.295J
8,422.8
1,187.2
705,2
2,684.4
21,794
1999
3,449.3
1,138.1
4,335.6
8,501.3
1,198.3
723.7
2,850.8
22,197
2000
3.511.8
1,148.5
4,375.1
8.578.8
1,209 2
740.9
2,9995
22,564
2001
3,568.8
1,1589
4,414.8
8,656.6
1,220.2
757.0
3,130.4
22.907
2002
3,620.3
1,169,3
4,454,5
8,734.6
1,231.2
771.7
3,243.3
23,225
2003
3.666.4
1,179.7
4,494.1
8,812.3
1.242.1
785.5
3,338,3
23,51®
2004
3,706.9
1,190.0
4,533.4
8,889.2
1.252.9
798.2
3,415.4
23,786
2005
3,741.9
1,200.3
4,572.3
8,965J
1,263.7
809.9
3,484.2
24,038
2006
3,777.0
1,210.4
4,611.0
9,041.5
1,274,4
820.6
3,544.7
24,280
2007
3,812.4
1,220.6
4,649.6
9,117.2
1285.1
830.2
3,596.9
24.512
2008
3.847.8
1,230.7
4.688.2
9,192.8
1,295.7
839.3
3,640.7
24,735
2009
3,883.4
1,240.8
4,726.8
9.268.4
1,306.4
848.1
3,676.2
24,950
2010
3,919.2
1.250.9
4,765.3
9,344.0
1.317.1
856.3
3,711.5
25,164
2011
3,954.7
1,261.1
4,804.0
9,420.0
1,327.8
864.2
3.746.3
25.378
2012
3.990.0
1,271.4
4,843.2
9.496.8
1,338.6
871.6
3,780.7
25,592
2013
4,025.1
1,281.8
4,882.7
9.574.2
1,349.5
879.1
3,815.1
25,807
C.11
-------
AVOIDED EXPENDITURES ($millions)
NON-Pb Pb Total
congestive
chronic
hospital
household
hyper-
hears
compensatory
bronchitis
admissions
soiling
tension
disease
stroke
education
2014
4,060.2
1,292.2
4,922.5
9,652.2
1,360.5
886.5
3,849.4
26,023
2015
4,095.3
1.302.7
4,962.5
9,730.6
1,371.5
894,0
3383.6
26340
2016
4,130.4
1,313.2
5.002.6
9.809.3
1,382 6
901.5
3,917.8
26,457
201?
4,165.6
1323.8
5,042.8
9,888.2
1393.8
909.0
3,951.8
26,675
20)8
4,200.7
1,334.4
5,083.1
9,967.2
1,404.9
916.5
3,985.7
26,892
2019
4,235.9
1,344.9
5,123.4
10,046.2
1,416.0
924.0
4,019.5
27,110
2020
4,271.0
1355.5
5,163.6
10,125.1
1,427.1
931.5
4,053.4
27327
2021
4.306.2
1366 1
5,204.0
10,204.2
1,4383
939.0
4,087.2
27345
2022
4,341.5
1,376.8
5,244.7
! 0,284.0
1,449.6
946.6
4,121.1
27,764
2023
4376.8
1,387.5
5,285.7
! 0364.4
1,460.9
954.2
4,153.1
27,984
2024
4,412.2
1,398.4
5.326.9
10,445.2
1,472.3
961.8
4,189.1
28,206
2025
4,447.7
1,409 3
5,368.4
10,526,7
1,483.8
969.4
4,223.3
28,429
2026
4,483.4
1.420 2
5,410.2
10,608.5
1,495.3
977.1
4,2573
28,652
2027
4 519.2
1.431 -
5,452.1
10,690.7
1,506.9
984.8
4,291.9
28,877
2028
4,555.1
1,442 3
5,494.2
10,773.2
1,518.5
992.5
4,326.5
29,102
2029
4,591.3
1,453.4
5,536.5
10,856.2
1,530.2
1,000.3
4361.2
29,329
2030
4,627.6
1,464.6
5.579.1
10,939.7
1342.0
1.008.1
4,396.0
29,557
2031
4,664.0
1,475.7
5,621.7
11,023.2
1,553.7
1,016.0
4,431.0
29.785
2032
4.700.6
1,486 8
5,664.0
11,106.1
1365 4
1,023.8
4,466.1
30,013
2033
4,737.4
1,497."
5,706.0
11,188.6
1377.1
1,031.7
4301.4
30,240
2034
4,774.2
1,508 'J
5,747.9
11,270.8
1,588.6
1,039.5
4336.9
30,467
2035
4,811,1
1,519.8
5,789.6
U.352.5
1,600.2
1,047.4
4,572.4
30,693
2036
4,848.1
1,530 7
5,831.2
11,434.0
1,611.7
1,055.2
4.608.1
30.919
2037
4.885.1
1,541.0
5,872.7
i 1,515.4
1,623.1
1,063.1
4,644.0
31,145
2038
4,922.2
1,552.5
5,914.0
11,596.5
1,634 6
i,070.9
4.6801
31,371
2039
4.959.3
1,563.3
5,955.4
11,677.6
1.646.0
1,078.8
4,716.3
31,597
2040
4,996.4
1474.2
5,996.7
11,758.6
1,657.4
1,086.6
4,752.6
31,823
204!
5,033.6
1385 0
6,038.1
11,839.7
1,668.8
1,094.4
4,789.0
32,049
2042
5,070.9
1,595.9
6,079.4
11,920.8
1,680.3
1,102.3
4,825.5
32,275
2043
5,108.1
1,606.8
6,120.9
12,002.1
1.69S.7
1,110.1
4,861.9
32,502
2044
5,145.4
1,617.7
6,162.4
12,083.5
1,703.2
1,118.0
4,898.4
32,729
2045
5,182.7
1,628.6
6,204.1
12,165.2
1,714.7
1,125.9
4,934.9
32,956
2046
5,220.0
1,639.6
6,245.9
12,247J
1,726.3
1,133.7
4,971.3
33,184
204?
5557,3
1,650.6
6,287.9
12,329.5
1.737.9
1,141.6
5,007.7
33,412
2048
5,294.5
1,661,7
6,330.1
12,412.2
1.749.5
1,149.5
5.043.9
33,642
2049
5,331.8
1,672.*
6,372.5
12,495.5
1,761.3
1,157.5
5,080,1
33,872
2050
5,369.1
1,684.1
6,415.3
J 23793
1,773.1
1,165.4
5,116.3
34,102
2051
5,406.5
1,695.4
6,4583
12,663.7
1,785.0
1,173.4
5,152.3
34.335
2052
5,443.8
1,706.7
6,501.7
12,748.8
1,797.0
1,181.4
5,188.4
34368
2053
5,481.3
1,718.3
6.545.5
12,834.7
1,809.!
! ,189.5
5324.4
34.803
2054
5,518.8
1,729.9
6,589.7
12,921.4
1,821.3
1,197.6
5,260.4
35,039
2055
5,556.5
j,741.f)
6,634.4
13,009.0
1,833.7
1,205.7
5,296.5
35,277
20S6
5,594.4
1,753.4
6,679.6
13,097 J
1,846.1
1,213.9
5332.7
35318
2057
5,632.4
1,765.4
6.725.2
13,187.1
1,858.7
1,222.2
5368.9
35,760
2058
5,670.7
1,777.5
6,771.4
13,277.6
1,871.5
1,230.5
5,4053
36,005
C.12
-------
AVOIDED EXPENDITURES ($millions)
NON-Pb Pb Total
congestive
chronic
hospital
household
hyper-
heart
compensatory
bronchi fis
admissions
soiling
tension
disease
stroke
education
2059
5.709,1
1,789-S
6,818.1
13,369.2
1,884.4
1,238.9
5,441.9
36,251
20(50
5.747.9
1.802?
6,865.4
13,461.9
1,897J
1,247.4
5,478.6
36,501
2061
5,786.9
1,814.8
6.913.2
13,555.7
1,910.7
1,256.0
5,515.5
36,753
2062
5,826,3
1,827,5
6,961.6
13,650.6
1.924.1
1,264.6
5452.7
37,007
2063
5.866.0
1.840.3
7,010.6
13,746.6
1.937.6
1.273.3
5,590.1
37,265
2064
5,906.0
1,853.3
7,060.1
13,843.7
1,951.3
1.282.2
5,627.8
37,524
2063
5,946.4
1,866.5
7,110.2
13,941.9
1,965.1
1,291-1
5,665.8
37,787
2066
5,987.3
1,879.8
7,160.8
14,041.1
1,979.1
1,3001
5,704.2
38,052
2067
6,028.5
1,893.2
7,211,9
14,141.3
1,993.2
1.309.1
5,742.9
38.320
2068
6.070.1
1,906-7
7,263.5
14,242.5
2.007.5
1,318.3
5,782.0
38,591
2069
6,112.2
1,920 4
7,315.5
14,344.6
2,021.9
1,327.6
5,821.5
38,864
2070
6,154.7
1,934.2
7,368.0
14,447.5
2,036.4
1,337.0
5,861.5
39,139
2071
6,197.6
1,948.0
7,420.9
14,551.2
2.051.0
1.346 4
5,901.9
39,417
2072
6,241.0
1.962 0
7,474.2
14,655.6
2,065.7
1355.9
5,942.7
39,697
2073
6,284.8
1,976 i
7,527.8
14,760.8
2,080.6
1,365.5
5,984,1
39,980
2074
6,329.1
1,990 5
7,581.8
14,866.6
2,095.5
1,375.2
6,025.8
40,264
2075
6,373.8
2,004_i
7,636.0
14,973.0
2,110.5
1,385.0
6,068.1
40,551
2076
6,418.9
2.018.8
7,690.6
15,030.0
2,125.6
1,394.9
6,110.8
40,839
2077
6,464.4
2,033.2
7,743.4
15,187,5
2,140.7
1,404.8
6,134.0
41,130
2078
6,510.3
2,047 7
7,800.5
15,295.5
2,155.9
1,414.8
6,197.6
41,422
2079
6,556.6
2,062 2
7,855.8
15,403.9
2,171.2
1,424.8
6,241.6
41,716
2080
6,603.2
2,076
7,911.3
15,512.9
2,186.6
1,434.9
6.286.1
42,012
2081
6,650.3
2,091 -5
7,967.1
15,622.3
2,202.0
1,445.1
6330.9
42.309
2082
6,697.6
2,106 1
8.023.2
15,732.1
2,217.5
1,455.4
6376.2
42,608
2083
6,745.3
2.120J
8,079.4
15.842.4
2.2330
1,465.7
6,421.8
42,909
2084
6,793.3
2,135"
8,135,9
15.953.2
2,248.6
1,476.0
6,467.8
43,210
208S
6,841.6
2,150.4,
8,192.6
16,064.4
2,264.3
1,486.4
6,514.0
43,514
2086
6,890.1
2.165 6
8,249.6
16,176.1
2,280.1
1,496.9
6,560.6
43,819
2087
6,939.0
2,180 r-
8,306.8
16.288.2
2,295 9
1,507.4
6,607.5
44,125
2088
6,988.1
2,195.?
8,364.2
16.400.9
2,311.7
1.518,0
6,654.6
44,433
2089
7,037.5
2,210.8
8,421.9
16.514.0
2.327.7
1,528.6
6,702.0
44,743
2090
7,087.1
2,226.0
8,479.9
16,627.7
2,343,7
1,539.2
6,749.7
45,053
2091
7,136.9
2,241.3
8.538.1
16.741.8
2,359.8
1,550.0
6,797.6
45,365
2092
7,187.0
2,256 ?
8,596.6
16,856.5
2,376.0
1.560.7
6,845.7
45,679
2093
7,237.3
2572.1
8.655.3
16,971,7
2,392.2
U71J
6,894.0
45,994
2094.
7.287.8
2,287.6
8,714.3
17,087.4
2,408.5
1,582.4
6,942.5
46.310
2095
7,338J
2,303 1
8.773.6
17.203.6
2,424.9
1,593.3
6,991.2
46,628
2096
7,389,5
2,318.7
8.833.1
17,320.2
2,441.3
1.604.3
7,040.2
46,947
2097
7,440.7
2,334.4
8,892.8
17,437.4
2,457.8
1,6153
7.089.3
47,268
209S
7,492.1
2,350.2
8,952.8
17,555.0
2,474.4
1,626.3
7,138.7
47,590
2099
7,543.7
2.366 0
9.013.0
17,673.1
2,491.1
1,637.4
7,188.3
47,913
2100
7,595.6
2,381 S
9.073.4
17,791 J5
2,507.7
1,648.6
7238.1
48.237
C.13
-------
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
19SO
1981
1982
1983
1984
19S5
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
19%
!997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
20G4
2005
2006
20Q7
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
AVOIDED WORK LOSS DAYS (millions of worker-days)
NON-Pb Pb TOTAL
worker
congestive
IQ-relatedl
chronic
direct
product-
hype*
heart
prod.
bronchitis
W1JJ
ivity
tension
disease
stroke
loss
{^millions)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0
1.6
1.4
0.0
0.1
0.0
0,0
0.0
3.2
262
4,8
2.8
0.0
0.3
0,0
0.0
0.0
7.9
659
9.6
4.2
0.0
04
0.0
0.1
00
14.3
1,190
16.0
5-6
0.0
0.S
0.0
0.2
0.0
22.4
1,856
24.1
7.0
0.0
0.7
0.1
0.2
0.0
32.0
2.657
34.8
9.0
0.0
1.4
0.1
0.4
0.0
45.8
3.798
48.3
11.1
0.0
2.1
0.2
0.7
0.0
62.3
5,175
64.6
13.1
0.0
2.8
0.2
1.0
0.0
81.8
6,786
83,6
15.2
0.0
3.S
0.3
1.5
0.0
1040
8,633
105.3
17.2
0.0
4.2
0.4
2.0
0,0
129.1
10,714
128.2
17.9
0.0
5.0
0.4
2.6
0.0
154.1
12,792
152.3
18.6
0.0
5.8
0.5
3.3
0.0
180.4
14,977
177.6
19.3
0.0
6.5
0.6
4.0
0.0
208.0
17,266
204.1
20.0
0.0
7.3
0.6
4.9
0.0
236.9
19,661
231.8
20.6
0.0
8.1
0,7
5.8
0.0
267.0
22,161
259.7
21.0
0.0
8.5
0.8
6.7
0.0
296.6
24,621
287.9
21.4
0.0
8.9
0.8
7.5
0.0
326.5
27,099
316.3
21,8
0.0
93
0.8
8.3
0.0
356.6
29,596
345.0
22.2
0.0
9.7
0.9
9.1
0.9
387.8
32,188
374.0
22.6
0.0
10.1
0.9
9.8
2.8
420.2
34,876
401.7
22.8
0.0
10.2
0.9
10.4
5.6
451.7
37,488
428.1
23.1
0.0
10.3
0.9
11.0
9.3
482.7
40,068
453 2
23.3
0.0
10.5
0.9
113
14.0
513.4
42,610
477.0
23.5
0.0
10.6
0.9
11.9
22.3
546.2
45,336
499.5
23.8
0.0
10.7
1.0
12.2
34.3
581.3
48,247
519.5
24.0
0.0
10.8
1.0
12.4
49.8
617.5
5i,252
537.1
24.2
0.0
10.9
1.0
12.7
69.1
654.9
54,354
552.2
24.4
0.0
11.0
1.0
12.9
91.9
693.4
57,553
564.9
24.7
0.0
11.1
1.0
13.0
118 0
732.7
60,810
575.1
24.9
0.0
11.2
1.0
13.2
147 2
772.6
64,127
584.5
25.1
0.0
11.3
1.0
13.3
179.7
814.9
67,636
592.9
25.4
0.0
11.4
1.0
13.4
2154
859.5
71,335
600.4
25.6
0.0
11.5
1,0
13.6
254.3
906.3
75.226
607.1
25.8
0.0
11.6
1.0
13.7
294.8
954.0
79,179
612.8
26.0
0.0
11.7
1.0
13.8
337.0
1,002.3
83,194
618.6
26.2
0.0
n.s
1.1
13.9
380.8
1,052.4
87,348
624.4
26.5
S).Q
11.9
LI
14.1
426.3
1.104.1
91.641
630.2
26.7
0.0
12.0
1.1
14.2
473-4
1,157.5
96,073
636.0
26.9
0.0
12.1
1.1
14.3
521.1
1,211.4
100,549
641.9
27.1
0.0
12.2
1.1
14,4
569.3
1,265.9
105,072
647.7
27.3
0.0
12.3
1.1
145
618.0
1,320.9
109.635
653.5
27.6
0.0
12.4
1.1
14.7
667.2
1.376.3
114,235
659.2
27.8
0.0
12.5
1.1
14.8
716.8
1,432.2
118,872
C.14
-------
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
202?
2028
2029
2030
203!
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
204 J
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
AVOIDED WORK LOSS DAYS (millions of worker-days)
NON-Pb Pb TOTAL
wortaf
congestive
IQ-remed
chronic
direct
preduct-
hyper-
heart
prod
©B.Vday
bronchitis
WLD
ivily
tension
disease
stroke
kiss
(Sfmlliom)
664.9
28.0
0.0
12.6
1.1
14.9
766.9
1,488.5
123,546
670.7
28.2
0.0
12.7
1.1
15.0
817.5
1,545.3
128,262
676.5
28.5
0.0
12.8
1.1
15.2
868.6
1,602.6
133,018
682.2
21.7
0.0
12.9
1.2
15.3
920.2
1,660.4
137.814
688.®
28.9
0.0
13.0
1.2
15.4
972.2
1,718.7
142,648
693.7
29.2
0.0
13.1
1.2
15.5
1,024.7
1,777.4
147,522
699.5
29.4
0.0
13.2
1.2
15.7
1,077.7
1,836.6
152,436
705.2
29.6
0.0
13.3
1.2
15.8
1.1311
3,896.3
157389
711,0
29.9
0.0
13.4
1.2
15.9
1.185.0
1,956.4
162.382
716.8
30.1
0.0
13.5
1.2
16.0
1,239.4
2,017.0
167,414
722.6
30.3
0.0
13.6
1.2
16.2
1,294.2
2,078.1
172,486
728.4
30.6
0.0
13.7
1.2
16.3
1.349.5
2,139.7
177,598
734.3
30.8
0.0
13.8
1.2
16.4
1,405.3
2,201.8
182,750
740.1
31.0
0.0
13.9
1.2
16.5
1,461.5
2,264.4
187,942
746.0
31.3
0.0
14.0
1.3
16.7
1,518.2
2327.4
193,175
75 i.9
31.5
0.0
14.1
1.3
16.8
1,575.3
2,390.9
198,448
757.9
31.8
0.0
14.2
1.3
1&.9
1.632.9
2,455 0
203,763
763 .8
32.0
0.0
14.3
1.3
17.1
1.691.0
2,519.5
209,119
769.8
32.2
0.0
S4.5
1.3
17.2
1,749.5
2,584.5
214,516
775.9
32.5
0.0
14.6
1.3
17.3
1,808.5
2,650.0
219.954
78!.9
32.7
0.0
14.7
1.3
17.5
1,868.0
2,716.1
225,433
787.9
33.0
0.0
14.8
1.3
17.6
1,928.0
2,782.6
230,952
794.0
33.2
0.0
14.9
1.3
17.7
1,988.4
2,849.5
236.512
800.0
33.4
0.0
15.0
1.3
17.9
2,048.4
2,916.1
242,035
806.1
33,7
0.0
15.1
1.4
18.0
2,108,0
2,982.2
247,520
812.2
33.9
0.0
15.2
1.4
18.1
2,167.0
3.047J
252,969
818.3
34.1
0.0
15.3
1.4
18.3
2,225,7
3,113.0
258.380
824.4
34.4
0.0
15.4
1.4
18.4
2,283.9
3.177,8
263,755
830.5
34.6
0.0
15.5
1.4
18.5
2,338.9
3,239.4
268,870
836.6
34.8
0.0
15.6
1.4
18.6
2,390.8
337.9
273.724
842.7
35.1
0.0
15.7
M
13 8
2.439.5
3353.2
278,317
848.8
35.3
0.0
15.8
1.4
18.9
2,485.2
3,405.4
282.650
854.9
35.6
0.0
159
1.4
19.0
2,527.7
3,454.5
286,724
861.0
35.8
0.0
160
1.4
19.2
2,567.4
3.500.9
290,573
867.1
36.0
0.0
16.2
14
19.3
2,604.5
3,544.6
294.198
873.2
36.3
0.0
143
1.5
19.4
2.638.9
3385,5
297.600
879.3
36.5
0.0
16.4
1.5
19.6
2,670.6
3,623.8
300,777
885.4
36.8
0.0
16.5
1.5
19.7
2,699.6
3,659.4
303,731
891.6
37.0
0.0
16.6
1.5
19.8
2,727.4
3,693.9
306,590
897-7
37.3
0.0
16.7
1.5
20.0
2,754.1
3,727.2
309,354
903.8
37.5
0.0
16.8
1.5
20.1
2.779.6
3,7593
312,024
910.0
37.8
0.0
16.9
1.5
20.2
2,803.9
3,790.4
314,600
916.2
38.0
0.0
17.0
1.5
20.4
2,827.1
3,8203
317,083
922.4
31.3
0.0
17.2
1.5
20.5
2,850.3
3,850.2
319,567
928.7
38.5
0.0
17.3
1.5
20.6
2,873.4
3,880.1
322,050
C.15
-------
AVOIDED WORK LOSS DAYS (millions of worker-days)
NON-PI) Pb TOTAL
worxer
congestive
IQ-relzted
chronic
direct
fT J.j JCt"
hypo-
hears
prod.
083/day
bronchitis
WLD
ivky
tension
disease
stroke
loss
(^millions)
2059
935.0
38.8
0.0
17.4
1.6
20.8
2,896.5
3,910.1
324,534
2060
94!.3
39.1
0.0
17.5
1.6
20.9
2,919.6
3,940.0
327,024
2061
947.7
39.3
0.0
17.6
1.6
21.1
2,942.7
3,970.1
329,520
2062
954.2
39.6
0.0
17.8
1.6
21.2
2,965.9
4,000.3
332,024
2063
960.7
39.9
0.0
17.9
1.6
21.4
2,989.1
4,030.5
334,534
2064
%7.2
40.2
0.0
18.0
1.6
21J
3,012.3
4,060.8
337,050
2065
973.9
40.5
0.0
18.1
1.6
21.6
3,035,5
4,091.3
339,574
2066
980.6
40.8
0.0
18.3
1.6
21.8
3,058.7
4,121.8
342,107
2067
987.3
41.0
0.0
18.4
1.6
22.0
3,082.0
4,152.4
344,648
2068
994.1
41.3
0.0
18.5
1.7
22.1
3,105.3
4,183.1
347,199
2069
1,001.0
41.6
0.0
18.7
1.7
22.3
3,128.7
4,214.0
349,759
2070
1,008.0
41.9
0.0
18.8
1.7
22.4
3,152.1
4,244.9
352.329
2071
1,015.0
42.2
0.0
18.9
1.7
22.6
3,175.6
4,276.0
354,911
2072
1,022.1
42.5
0.0
19.1
1.7
22.7
3,199.1
4,307.3
357,505
2073
1,029.3
42.8
0.0
19.2
1.7
22.9
3,222.7
4,338.7
360,111
2074
1,036.5
43.2
0.0
19.4
1.7
23.1
3,246,4
4,370.2
362.729
2075
1,043.9
43.5
0.0
19.5
1.7
23,2
3,270.2
4,401.9
365361
2076
1,051.2
43.8
0.0
19.6
1.8
23.4
3,294.0
4,433.8
368,006
2077
1,058.7
44.1
0.0
19.8
1.8
23.6
3318.0
4,465.8
370,665
2078
1,066.2
44.4
0.0
19.9
1.8
23.7
3,342.0
4,498.1
373338
2079
1,073.8
44.7
0.0
20.1
1.8
23.9
3366.2
4,530.4
376,025
20SO
1,081.4
45.0
0.0
20.2
1.8
24.1
3390.4
4,562.9
378,725
20S1
1,089.1
45.3
0.0
20.3
1.8
24.2
3,414,8
4,595.7
381,439
2082
1,096.9
45.7
0.0
20.5
1.8
24.4
3,439.2
4,628.5
384,167
2083
1,104.7
46.0
0.0
20.6
1.8
24.6
3,463.8
4,661.6
386,910
2084
1,112.6
46.3
0.0
20.8
1.9
24.8
3.488.5
4,694.8
389,667
2085
1,120 J
46.6
0.0
20.9
1.9
24,9
3,513.4
4,728.2
392,439
2086
1,128.4
47.0
0.0
21.1
1.9
25.1
3,538.3
4,761.8
395.227
2087
1,136.4
47.3
0.0
21.2
1.9
25,3
3,563.4
4.795.5
398,030
2088
1,144.5
47.6
0.0
21.3
1.9
25.5
3,588.7
4,829.5
400,848
2089
1,152.5
47.9
0.0
21.5
1.9
25.7
3,614.1
4.863.6
403,682
2090
1,160,7
48.3
0.0
21.6
1.9
25.8
3,639.6
4,898.0
406,531
209!
1.I6S.S
48.6
0.0
21.8
2.0
26.0
3.665.3
4,932.5
409,396
2092
1,177.0
48.9
0.0
21.9
2.0
26.2
3,691.1
4,967.2
412,276
2093
1,1853
49.3
0.0
22.1
2.0
26.4
3,717.1
5.002.1
415,172
2094
1,193.5
49.6
0.0
22.2
2.0
26.6
3,743.2
5,037.1
418,083
2095
1,201.9
49.9
0.0
22.4
2.0
26.7
3,769.5
5,072.4
421,010
2096
1,210.2
50.3
0.0
22.5
2.0
26.9
3,795.9
5,107.9
423,952
2097
1,218.6
50.6
0.0
22.7
2.0
27.1
3,822.5
5,143.5
426.910
2098
1,227.0
51.0
0.0
22.9
2.0
27.3
3,849.2
5,179.3
429,885
2099
1,235.5
51.3
0.0
23.0
2.1
27.5
3,876.1
5,215.4
432,876
2100
1,243.9
51.6
0.0
23.2
2.1
27.7
3,903.1
5,251.6
435,885
POPULATION PROJECTIONS: from Census Bureau
C.16
-------
copy of file:
(NP-T1) Annual Projections o f the Total Resident Population as of July 1
Middle, Lowest, Highest, and Zero International Migration Series,
1999 to 2100.
Source: (1) Population Estimates Program, Population Division,
U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, D.C. 20233
(2) Population Project ions Program, Population Division,
U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, D.C. 20233
Contact: Statistical Information Staff, Population Division,
U.S. Census Bureau, (301)457-2422 by telephone,
POP@CENSUS.GOV bye-mail (please include telephone number).
Internet Release Date: January 13, 2000
Revised Date: February 14, 2000
(Numbers in thousands. Consistent with the 1990 estimates base.)
Projected Population Zero
International
Year Middle lowest Highest Migration
Series Series Series Series
Estimates (1)
1990
249,439
1991
252,127
-
.
1992
254,995
-
-
1993
257,746
-
1994
260,289
-
.
1995
262,765
-
-
1996
265,190
-
-
1997
267,744
-
.
1998
270,299
-
-
Projections (2)
1999
272,820
272,695
272,957
272,323
2000
275,306
274,853
275,816
273,818
2001
277,803
276,879
278,869
275,279
2002
280,306
278,801
282,087
276,709
2003
282,798
280,624
285,422
278,112
2004
285,266
282,352
288,841
279,493
2005
287,716
284,000
292,339
280,859
2006
290,153
285,581
295,911
282,219
2007
292,583
287,106
299,557
283,579
2008
295,009
288,583
303,274
284,945
C.17
-------
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
297,436
299,862
302,300
304,764
307,250
309,753
312,268
314,793
317.325
319,860
322.395
324,927
327,468
330.028
332,607
335,202
337,815
340.441
343,078
345,727
348,391
351,070
353.749
356,411
359,059
361,695
364,319
366,934
369,544
372,148
374.750
377,350
379,951
382,555
385,163
387,776
390,398
393.029
395,671
398.326
400,998
403,687
406.396
409,127
411,884
414,667
417,478
420,318
423,191
290,018
291,413
292,778
294,120
295,436
296,723
297,977
299,197
300,379
301,521
302,617
303.664
304,667
305,628
306.545
307.412
308,229
308,999
309,727
310.413
311.056
311,656
312.204
312,692
313.124
313,499
313,819
314,086
314,303
314.472
314,594
314,673
314,710
314,707
314.667
314,591
314,484
314,346
314,181
313,990
313,778
313.546
313,296
313,030
312,752
312,461
312,160
311,850
311.532
307,060
310,910
314,846
318,893
323,044
327,293
331,636
336,069
340,589
345,192
349,877
354,642
359,515
364,524
369.671
374,960
380,397
385,971
391.672
397,507
403,483
409,604
415,839
422,154
428,554
435,041
441,618
448,287
455,053
461,917
468,882
475,949
483,122
490,401
497,790
505,290
512.904
520,633
528,480
536,447
544,539
552,757
561,106
569,589
578,211
586,975
595,885
604,943
614,157
286,322
287,710
289,108
290,514
291,924
293,334
294,741
296,144
297,539
298,921
300,288
301,636
302,958
304,251
305,511
306,735
307,923
309,070
310,172
311,230
312,246
313,219
314,153
315,049
315.910
316,737
317,534
318,304
319,049
319,773
320,478
321,167
321,843
322,506
323,160
323,807
324,449
325,087
325,723
326.359
326,998
327,641
328,291
328,949
329,617
330,297
330,991
331,700
332,427
C.18
-------
2058
426,097
311,206
623,527
333.172
2059
429,037
310,873
633,058
333,937
2060
432,011
310,533
642,752
334,724
2061
435,021
310,187
652,615
335,533
2062
438,067
309,833
662,648
336,365
2063
441,149
309,471
672,853
337.220
2064
444,265
309,098
683,233
338,098
2065
447,416
308,716
693,790
338,999
2066
450,600
308,321
704,524
339,922
2067
453,815
307,913
715,438
340,866
2068
457,061
307,488
726,530
341.830
2069
460,337
307,048
737,804
342,814
2070
463,639
306.589
749,257
343,815
2071
466,968
306,109
760,892
344,833
2072
470,319
305,608
772,707
345,865
2073
473,694
305,086
784,704
346,909
2074
477,090
304,540
796,883
347,966
2075
480,504
303,970
809,243
349,032
2076
483.937
303,375
821,785
350,107
2077
487,387
302,756
834,510
351,189
2078
490,853
302,111
847.420
352,278
2079
494.334
301,442
860,514
353,372
2080
497,830
300,747
873.794
354,471
2081
501,341
300,029
887,263
355,574
2082
504,866
299,286
900.922
356,681
2083
508,406
298,521
914.773
357,792
2084
511,959
297,732
928.818
358,907
2085
515,529
296,923
943.062
360,026
2086
519,113
296,093
957.506
361,149
2087
522,712
295,244
972,153
362.277
2088
526.327
294,375
987,006
363,409
2089
529,958
293,488
1,002,069
364,546
2090
533.605
292,584
1,017,344
365,689
2091
537.269
291,664
1,032,834
366,838
2092
540,948
290,727
1,048,542
367,992
2093
544.645
289,775
1,064,472
369,153
2094
548,357
288,808
1,080,626
370,319
2095
552,086
287,826
1,097,007
371.492
2096
555,830
286,830
1,113,615
372,672
2097
559,590
285,820
1.130,457
373,857
2098
563,365
284.796
1.147,532
375,048
2099
567.153
283,758
1,164,842
376,243
2100
570.954
282,706
1,182,390
377,444
Note: For a description of the methodology and assumptions see the
corresponding menu item 'Methodology and Assumptions for the Population
Projections of the United States: 1999 to 2100, Working Paper #38."
C.19
-------
Appendix D
Compliance Costs:
Sources, Methods and Data
D.l
-------
D.l Compliance Cost Sources
CAPITAL EXPENDITURES
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Environmental Investments: The
Cost of a Clean Environment. November 1990
U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Survey of
Current Business. Selected Issues
Historical data, 1973-89. EPA estimates, 1990.
OPERATING & MAINTENANCE EXPENDITURES
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Environmental Investments: The
Cost of a Clean Environment. November 1990
U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Survey of
Current Business. Selected Issues
U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Current Industrial
Reports: Pollution Abatement Costs and Expenditures, 19 .
Historical data for non-farm business aggregates
1973-1984 Complete
1985-1986, Revised data allocated on the basis of
historical 1985-1986 shares
1987-1989. Revised data allocated on the basis of
historical 1986 shares
1990 EPA estimates allocated on the basis of 1986 shares
Historical data for sectors within manufacturing
1973-1986, 1988 Complete
1987 Survey not taken or published. Numbers
determined on the basis of historical shares
within utal manufacturing
1989-90 totals allocated on the basis of 1988 shares
D.2
-------
RECOVERED COSTS
U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Current Industrial
Reports: Pollution Abatement Costs and Expenditures, 19 .
Historical data for manufacturing
1979-1986,1988 Complete
1987 Survey not taken or published. Numbers for
1973-78 and 1987 determined on the basis of
historical shares of total recovered costs
1989-90 totals and allocation based on 1988 shares
MOBILE SOURCES
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Environmental Investments: The
Cost of a Clean Environment. November 1990 and Revisions.
U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Survey of
Current Business. Selected Issues
U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Producer Price
Indexes. Selected Supplements
Historical data, 1973-1989. EPA estimates, 1990.
OTHER SOURCES
U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. The
National Income and Product Accounts of the United States. Selected
Releases
U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Time Series on
Input-Output Indus Dies. Selected Releases
Historical data, BEA, 1973-90, and BLS, 1973-89.
D.3
-------
D.2 Compliance Cost Estimation Methods
Operating & Maintenance Expenditures: Manufacturing
Missing values in the Census data at the two-digit level were estimated,
generally by linear interpolation. Depreciation expenses were removed
from the annual O&M expenditures using the 1979 value share (the only
year available). The resulting O&M outlays were aggregated across sectors
to yield an industry total by year. Value shares then were computed from
the sectoral data and the industry totals. The result was a matrix of sectoral
shares of total O&M outlays for manufacturing in each year, 1973-1988.
Share values for 1988 were used for 1989 and 1990. These share values
were applied to the BEA (EPA) O&M totals for all manufacturing to yield
the compliance costs reported below.
Recovered Costs: Manufacturing
Missing values in the Census data at the two-digit level were determined in
one of two ways. Where data were present, the average share of air
recovered costs in total recovered costs was applied to total recovered costs.
This provided data for those situations in which total recovered costs were
available but air recovered costs were not. The remaining missing values
were estimated, generally by linear interpolation. These results then were
aggregated to yield air recovered costs for total manufacturing by year. In
many instances, these are very close to BEA's figures for all air-related
recovered costs, manufacturing and non-manufacturing alike.
Operating & Maintenance Expenditures: Non-manufacturing
BEA capital expenditures on air pollution control equipment for non-
manufacturing aggregates were allocated to sub-aggregates on the basis of
BLS industry output shares. These capital expenditures were accumulated
over time within each non-manufacturing sub-aggregate and aggregate
capital by year was determined. Capital value shares by year for the sub-
aggregates then were computed and applied to the BEA (EPA) O&M
expenditures for the non-manufacturing aggregates to yield the compliance
costs below.
D.4
-------
In all cost categories, data for the years 1971 and 1972 were determined by
linear interpolation between 1970, assumed to be zero, and 1973, the first
full year of available information.
The compliance costs used in this analysis are reported fully in the pages
that follow.
D.5
-------
O&M Expenditures, $Mn
Industry
Metal mining
Coal mining
Crude & natural gas
Non-metallic mining
Construction
Year
1973
5.83
8.14
27.93
6.51
42.11
1974
6.87
11.91
36.84
7.41
43.06
1975
7.69
15.70
45.22
8.67
50.85
1976
11.27
25.78
71.05
12.85
52.18
1977
15.26
37.39
105.04
18.06
59.28
1978
18.79
46.67
134.05
22.72
65.75
1979
22.99
57.10
168.50
27.46
68.40
1980
26.68
66.52
210.34
31.75
81.30
1981
29.37
73.88
250.14
35.03
92.52
1982
26.35
69.44
248.91
32.15
80.33
1983
29.66
79.73
295.28
36.78
91.21
1984
34.03
93.33
352.50
42.90
104.11
1985
36.37
101.87
390.32
46.76
110.76
1986
36.88
106.02
402.79
48.59
113.96
1987
37.60
110.42
417.47
50.69
115.95
1988
35.82
106.95
400.80
49.40
114.10
1989
37.09
111.96
417.17
52.19
121.20
1990
40.53
123.95
459.21
58.24
135.43
D.6
-------
O&M Expenditures, $Mn
Industry
Food & products
Tobacco
Textile products
Lumber & products
Furniture & fixtures
Year
1973
31.82
1.80
419
9.65
2.89
1974
37.31
2.67
5.87
11.87
3.53
1975
40.90
3.07
5.90
13.89
3.77
1976
43.96
3.50
5.72
16.13
4.44
1977
44.58
3.35
6.81
12.67
5.65
1978
53.30
3.92
11.91
16.93
4.96
1979
66.20
4.33
11.28
23.27
6.15
1980
63.54
4.51
10.55
24.54
6.74
1981
61.31
5.60
12.08
26.92
6.73
1982
59.22
6.54
9.28
16.14
5.51
1983
74.22
6.90
13.43
19.12
8.17
1984
78.01
9.57
16.22
25.25
9.73
1985
82.61
10.38
19.61
25.85
13.35
1986
100.22
9.27
18.51
39.06
16.89
1987
115.99
9.08
19.69
47.40
18.48
1988
123.72
8.27
19.52
52.42
18.82
1989
130.97
8.76
20.67
55.49
19.92
1990
146.60
9.80
23.13
62.11
22.29
D 7
-------
O&M Expenditures, $Mn
Industry
Paper & products
Printing & publishing
Chemicals & products
Petroleum refining
Rubber & plastics
Year
1973
44.43
4.87
148.28
182.90
10.04
1974
57.26
5.20
163.08
212.73
12.13
1975
71.54
6.20
192.20
304.61
16.08
1976
87.07
6.58
235.72
414.65
17.18
1977
93.42
6.20
268.04
539.17
15.40
1978
112.21
6.99
320.55
570.65
13.74
1979
118.49
7.96
369.47
637.57
23.68
1980
140.91
11.93
439.98
827.39
23.93
1981
152.96
13.62
468.49
1022.05
23.59
1982
146.44
15.48
447.04
1071.76
17.24
1983
161.35
26.15
505.12
1085.33
39.74
1984
199.38
35.83
501.32
1193.95
39.78
1985
224.35
46.55
547.29
1160.03
36.69
1986
234.17
54.24
538.18
1143.10
40.93
1987
260.71
61.76
578.71
1148.46
46.85
1988
269.30
65.02
579.64
1076.32
49.53
1989
285.09
68.83
613.63
1139.43
52.44
1990
319.09
77.04
686.81
1275.33
58.69
D.8
-------
O&M Expenditures, $Mn
Industry
Leather & products
Stone, clay & glass
Primary metals
Fabricated metals
Non-electric machinery
Year
1973
,70
54.53
224.44
22.37
16.66
1974
.73
68.61
270.54
26.86
19.31
1975
.88
76.67
344.33
25.51
22.69
1976
.80
85.07
457.05
27.46
24.39
1977
.80
99.46
570.19
31.42
26.72
1978
1.03
114.30
647.86
32.92
32.73
1979
.91
124.33
744.07
42.22
37.88
1980
.82
128.91
809.86
38.85
38.85
1981
.71
135.96
907.13
41.14
38.50
1982
.59
99.72
718.05
38.01
37.21
1983
1.11
126.32
727.72
64.40
46.56
1984
1.77
150.53
816.29
50.89
54.76
1985
1.79
153.46
863.99
62.82
61.40
1986
1.75
171.38
802.66
77.42
67.30
1987
1.88
180.10
823.74
95.96
63.64
1988
1.88
176.56
788.98
107.77
55.75
1989
1.99
186.91
835.24
114.08
59.01
1990
2.23
209.20
934.86
127.69
66.05
D.9
-------
O&M Expenditures, $Mn
Industry
Electrical machinery
Motor vehicles
Other transport equip.
Instruments
Misc. manufacturing
Year
1973
15.70
23.84
6.19
1.81
4.89
1974
16.58
27.00
8.98
4.16
5.59
1975
20.26
33.38
8.69
5.04
4.39
1976
19.50
36.33
9.11
7.36
5.95
1977
20.27
38.67
9.48
7.66
4.02
1978
22.52
50.98
11.19
6.23
3.08
1979
32.44
59.85
13.60
8.56
4.74
1980
33.61
74.42
15.83
9.77
4.06
1981
38.73
75.73
20.77
11.13
4.86
1982
40.42
67.42
17.62
11.01
7.31
1983
57.02
104.54
22.84
21.45
9.51
1984
54.87
118.88
37.09
20.19
5.71
1985
57.89
120.04
38.69
20.89
7.32
1986
67.07
119.89
43.75
17.58
4.62
1987
70.45
131.32
45.37
18.88
6.51
1988
69.04
133.73
43.90
18.90
7.93
1989
73.08
141.58
46.47
20.00
8.40
1990
81.80
158.46
52.01
22.39
9.40
D.10
-------
O&M Expenditures, $Mn
Industry
Transportation
Communications
Electric utilities
Gas utilities
Trade
Year
1973
24.21
8.91
390.00
8.07
40.04
1974
38.78
9.46
649.00
14.54
45.79
1975
48.81
11.47
678.00
16.27
61.90
1976
60.47
11.92
691.00
21.34
78.72
| t)77
73.82
13.57
839.00
24.61
91.89
1978
82.92
15.03
1016.00
26.53
101.11
1979
93.09
15.60
1488.00
32.10
115.27
1980
107.42
18.61
1928.00 ,
45.57
132.75
1981
132.80
21.36
1986.00
66.40
141.54
1982
123.74
18.65
1979.00
73.12
126.99
1983
140.05
21.38
2008.00
91.34
143.85
1984
162.94
24.47
2049.00
112.02
167.65
1985
176.48
26.08
2138.00
127.06
180.45
1986
184.19
26.97
2137.00
132.06
187.19
1987
190.39
27.50
2227.00
138.47
200.33
1988
179.49
27.23
2214.00
131.41
201.40
1989
183.71
29.07
2346.00
135.37
218.33
1990
198.78
32.67
2609.00
147.37
248.74
D.ll
-------
O&M Expenditures, $Mn
Industry
Finance, insurance & real estate
Other services
Government enterprises
Year
1973
1974
23.35
.13.43
5.47
26.53
39.18
5.65
1975
35.58
53.02
6.82
1976
45.34
68.03
7.05
1977
53.13
79.95
7.99
1978
58.83
88.82
8.78
1979
67.49
102.93
9.09
1980
78.46
120.82
10.77
1981
83.86
129.82
12.27
1982
75.71
117.90
10.70
1983
86.40
135.09
12.23
1984
101.17
158.89
13.99
1985
109.48
172.44
14.93
1986
114.71
181.17
15.47
1987
124.84
197.56
15.79
1988
127.78
202.89
15.73
1989
140.27
224.71
16.92
1990
162.09
261.82
19.17
D.12
-------
Recovered Cost Values, $Mn
Industry
Food & products
Tobacco
Textile products
Lumber & products
Furniture & fixtures
Year
1973
13.44
.99
.48
2.63
.45
1974
21.51
1.46
.43
4.43
.96
1975
25.80
1.93
1.14
6.03
1.15
1976
26.25
2.40
1.43
8.84
1.67
1977
21.97
2.87
1.13
5.47
2.18
1978
23.53
2.88
.96
9.25
1.79
1979
39.50
2.90
.80
6.30
2.30
1980
31.80
5.30
1.00
11.50
3.70
1981
40.40
3.57
1.10
6.00
3.30
1982
21.00
1.83
.70
5.75
.70
1983
10.60
.10
2.20
3.00
3.70
1984
19.50
1.13
2.20
6.00
3.50
1985
11.90
2.15
1.70
6.00
1.70
1986
21.47
3.18
1.60
7.30
7.10
1987
31.03
4.21
2.05
9.60
6.75
1988
40.60
5.24
2.50
11.90
6.40
1989
41.15
5.31
2.53
12.06
6.49
1990
46.07
5.94
2.84
13.50
7.26
D.I3
-------
Recovered Cost Values, $Mn
Industry
Paper & products
Printing & publishing
Chemicals & products
Petroleum refining
Rubber & plastics
Year
1973
26.84
2.02
40.53
31.54
2.42
1974
41.68
2.02
50.97
59.45
10.24
1975
55.15
2.25
68.62
98.05
6.56
1976
67.63
3.92
92.03
130.87
8.30
1977
74.12
2.65
100.66
169.75
4.04
1978
86.31
3.34
112.81
186.41
4.20
1979
83.10
7.40
124.60
200.00
8.90
1980
107.10
6.70
152.20
310.10
6.90
1981
133.40
6.50
181.20
356.00
7.60
1982
112.50
4.10
182.60
335.30
7.00
1983
159.30
6.90
148.80
341.10
4.00
1984
47.70
5.80
158.40
423.30
5.20
1985
52.30
6.90
119.40
406.60
5.90
1986
58.80
8.90
145.00
406.90
6.90
1987
98.85
14.65
180.00
396.30
7.50
1988
138.90
20.40
215.00
385.70
8.10
1989
140.79
20.68
217.92
390.94
8.21
1990
157.60
23.15
243.94
437.62
9.19
D.X4
-------
Recovered Cost Values, $Mn
Industry
Leather & products
Stone, clay & glass
Primary metals
Fabricated metals
Non-electric machinery
Year
1973
.03
19.28
39.90
3.04
3.64
1974
.03
26.05
59.58
2.74
2.82
1975
.03
32.82
73.83
2.50
3.05
1976
.03
46.67
78.02
2.10
4.08
1977
.03
54.07
97.85
1.17
4.52
1978
.06
58.87
109.78
1.50
3.80
1979
.10
67.50
182.40
5.00
2.30
1980
.10
59.90
137.20
8.00
5.00
1981
.06
68.70
156.00
9.20
6.90
1982
.03
56.00
109.10
3.60
4.00
1983
.01
38.90
74.20
9.10
8.00
1984
.06
36.80
133.60
10.10
2.00
1985
.10
26.10
107.80
4.80
2.50
1986
.10
33.50
139.50
8.10
2.20
1987
.10
59.50
141.65
8.15
2.75
1988
.10
85.50
143.80
8.20
3.30
1989
.10
86.66
145.75
8.31
3.34
199 0
.1!
97.01
163.16
9.30
3.74
D.15
-------
Recovered Cost Values, $Mn
Industry
Electrical machinery
Motor vehicles
Other transport equip.
Instruments
Misc. manufacturing
Year
1973
8.15
1.57
.65
.56
.57
1974
8.94
1.02
.50
.89
.67
1975
6.30
1.16
.26
1.09
.96
1976
15.72
1.31
.20
2.94
1.24
1977
10.44
1.18
.24
1.54
.98
1978
7.05
1.47
.27
1.27
1.29
1979
12.90
.40
.00
2.00
1.80
1980
9.00
.60
.20
2.80
2.40
1981
12.20
.40
.70
1.60
2.20
1982
6.40
.40
.50
4.00
1.35
1983
5.90
.30
LOO
4.60
.50
1984
6.10
2.40
1.30
3.68
.80
1985
5.50
2.20
1.10
2.76
1.00
1986
6.50
5.00
1.10
2.70
1.40
1987
11.60
5.60
1.50
3.82
1.50
1988
16.70
6.20
1.90
4.94
1.60
1989
16.93
6.28
1.93
5.00
1.62
1990
18.95
7.03
2.16
5.60
1.82
D.16
-------
Total Air Pollution Control Outlays, $Mn
Industry
Nonfarm business
Government enterprise
Air control investment
O&M expenditures
Recovered cost values
Year
1973
2968
82
3050
1436
199
1974
3328
104
3432
1895
296
1975
3914
102
4016
2240
389
1976
3798
156
3954
2665
496
1977
3811
197
4008
3223
557
1978
3977
205
4182
3724
617
1979
4613
285
4898
4605
750
1980
5051
398
5449
5568
862
1981
5135
451
5586
6123
997
1982
5086
508
5594
5815
857
1983
4155
422
4577
6292
822
1984
4282
416
4698
6837
870
1985
4141
328
4469
7186
768
1986
4090
312
4402
7255
867
1987
4179
277
4456
7599
987
1988
4267
243
4510
7474
1107
1989
4760
235
4995
7916
1122
1990
4169
226
4395
8842
1256
D.17
-------
Mobile Source Emissions Control Costs, $ Mn
EPA
Investment in Vehicles
Investment in Aircraft
O & M Expenditures
Fuel Price Penalty
Fuel Economy Penalty
Year
(All Vehicle Types)
(All Vehicle Types)
(All Vehicle Types)
(All Vehicle Types)
1973
276
-26
. 91
1700
1974
242
-98
244
2205
1975
1567
3
-289
358
2213
1976
1953
8
-514
468
2106
1977
2233
15
-738
568
1956
1978
2501
12
-1527
766
1669
1979
2937
4
-1826
1187
1868
1980
2944
5
-2120
1912
1998
1981
3526
8
-2386
2181
1594
1982
3518
33
-2542
2071
1026
1983
4271
60
-2739
1956
628
1984
5670
9
-2651
2012
313
1985
6379
8
-2838
3057
118
1986
6876
10
-3859
2505
I
-F*
O
1987
6839
12
-4126
2982
-158
1988
7193
13
-4492
3127
-210
1989
7037
16
-4794
3476
-318
1990
7299
13
-5089
3754
-481
D.18
-------
Mobile Source Emissions Control Costs, $ Mn
EPA, Light Duty Vehicles Only
Year
Inspection-Maintenance
Maintenance Credit
Fuel Price Penalty
Fuel Economy Penalty
Fuel Density Credit
1973
38
91
1466
3
1974
113
244
1913
14
1975
5
309
345
1928
40
1976
6
536
442
1841
69
1977
24
784
529
1748
106
1978
26
1578
711
1604
242
1979
28
1840
1065
1831
345
1980
31
2125
1696
2048
533
1981
44
2393
1915
1754
650
1982
117
2628
1782
1232
619
1983
147
2845
1641
847
580
1984
483
3152
1653
582
592
1985
553
3399
2630
403
584
1986
834
4754
2117
216
469
1987
913
5086
2513
152
512
1988
952
5464
2590
105
500
1989
993
5780
2910
79
581
1990
1034
6087
3108
58
720
D.19
-------
Other Air Pollution Control Expenditures, $Mn
Private R&D expenditures were not included in CAA costs
Abatement
Regulation & Monitoring
Research & Development
Year
Federal
State & Local
Federal
State & Local
Private
Federal
State & Local
1973
47
50
115
451
126
6
1974
56
52
131
492
100
7
1975
88
1
66
139
466
108
8
1976
105
1
69
135
543
131
6
1977
106
1
80
161
654
' 144
7
1978
90
93
183
789
146
8
1979
103
100
200
924
105
7
1980
95
122
207
869
130
5
1981
85
108
226
852
131
1982
87
93
230
912
126
2
1983
136
4
88
239
1315
133
6
1984
115
14
101
250
1359
165
4
1985
98
12
103
250
1427
247
3
1986
67
14
106
307
1499
217
4
1987
80
15
110
300
1574
200
2
1988
65
10
120
320
1652
220
1
1989
70
12
130
360
1718
230
2
1990
71
13
133
343
1820
231
2
D.20
-------
Mobile Source Emissions Control Costs, $ Mn
BEA
Investment in Vehicles
O & M Expenditures
Fuel Price Penalty
Fuel Economy Penalty
Year
(All Vehicle Types)
(All Vehicle Types)
(All Vehicle Types)
(All Vehicle Types)
1973
1013
1104
697
1974
1118
1380
5
1180
1975
2131
1520
97
1344
1976
2802
1420
309
1363
1977
3371
1289
701
1408
1978
3935
1136
1209
1397
1979
4634
931
1636
1792
1980
5563
726
2217
2320
1981
7529
552
2996
2252
1982
7663
409
3518
1876
1983
9526
274
4235
1582
1984
11900
118
4427
1370
1985
13210
165 1
4995
1133
1986
14368
-331
4522
895
1987
:3725
-453
3672
658
1988
16157
-631
3736
420
1989
15340
$
i
1
1
1972
183
1990
14521
-719
1370
-55
D.21
-------
Appendix E
Figures from Text
Full Page Landscape
E.l
-------
Figure 3.1: Pollution Control Capital Expenditures
Stationary Sources, New and Existing Capital
2.5
2.0
i tn
s
£
"8
I o 1.5
I H
/
I—f \
-~--New Capital
—New and Existing Capita!
! *
«
m
? 1.0
o
o
0.5
O
ll^l
0.0
* 1 t 111 I i
r-r-T
E.2
-------
Figure 3.2 Industry Compliance Costs
Stationary Source O&M Costs (Net of Recovered Costs) and All Mobile Source Costs
Agriculture, forestry, fisheries
Metal mining
Coal Mining
Crude oil and gas extraction
Hon metallic mineral mining
Construction
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and other textile
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum refining
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
Stone, clay and glass products
Primary metals
Fabricated metal products
Non-electrical machinery
Electrical machinery
Motor vehicles
Other transportation eguipment
Instruments
Miscellaneous manufacturing
Transportation and warehousing
Communications
Electric utilities (services)
Gas utilities (services)
Wholesale and retail trade
Finance, insurance and real estate
Personal and business services
Government enterprises
-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0
Costs as a % of Total Industry Output
E.3
-------
Figure 4.1: Mortality and Morbidity Effects
Counterfactual Scenario: No Adoption of the Clean Air Act
1980
1990
2000
Long Run
0.0
*
3
~ Mortality Effect on Population
¦ Mortality Effect on Labor-Leisure Time Availability
¦ Morbidity Effect on Labor-Leisure Time Availability
-¦ Jt
0.5 1,0 1.5 2.0
Percent of baseline population or time endowment
2.5
E„4
-------
Figure 4.2: Additional Household Expenditures
Counterfactual Scenario: No Adoption of the Clean Air Act
E.5
-------
Figure 5.1: Impacts on Real GDP
Counterfactual Scenario: Ho Adoption of the Clean Air Act
1.5
1.0 -
W
(0
o
m
J3
15
3
u
E
o
©
DJ
C
u
a>
CS)
CS
+j
c
»
u
a>
Q_
Realized Net Damages
Realized Damages
Avoided Compliance Costs
^.o
-2.5
-3.0
-3.5
ttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttth
i i i i m i i i r r i T*r l n n I I I
I II I ! I
CM
CJD
©
CM
TTTTTTf
n ITTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT
r*.
cr,
i^.
CD
CO
r^-
o
CM
OO
'J3
oa
o%
to
CP)
CJi
Oj
CO
cr>
O*
CM
O
G?
CN
CO
CD
CM
cr>
©
CM
-rr oo
CD C,
o o
CM CM
E.6
-------
Figure 5.2: Impacts on Real Investment
Counterfactual Scenario: No Adoption of the Clean Air Act
E.7
-------
Figure 5.3: impacts on Capital Stock
Counterfactual Scenario: No Adoption of the Clean Air Act
E.8
-------
"Figure 5.4: Impacts on Real Consumption
Counterfactual Scenario: No Adoption of the Clean Air Act
E.9
-------
Figure 5.5: Impacts on Leisure Demand
CounterTactual Scenario: Mo Adoption of the Clean Air Act
E.10
-------
Figure 5.6: Impacts on Labor Demand & Supply
Counter-factual Scenario: No Adoption of the Clean Air Act
E.ll
-------
Figure 5.7: Changes in Social Welfare
E.12
-------
Figure 6.1: Impacts on Fossil Fuel Use
Counterfactual Scenario: Mo Adoption of the Clean Air Act
3.0
25 -
<8>
W
rt
u
2.0 -
e
w
«
-Q
1.5
It
3
«<*
1.0 -
o
?*-.
E
0.5 •
o
„s_
©
0.0 -
OT
C
w
JC
4l.fi -
o
®
o»
-1.0 •
rd
c
®
u
1.5 -
a>
D.
-2.0 -
-2.5 -
Realized Net Damages
Realized Damages
Avoided Compliance Costs
.......... tin 111111|tu.
r t yT~ rn ¦¦
rnrrnrrm n n n \ ^TT"rrrri rrm'Ti \ n rn rmirrr
f^-p^r^cocco^eftcriOo^^-T-cvsfNforrio^^vnun^nentcf^-f^-r^-oscofiT^c^o
~ ^ " _c?scr>0000000c500000000c:0000000c3
fNNN(NNNWW(NNWNNfMWNWWNNM(NNNN
C7> CT» C75 ©>
E.13
-------
Figure 8.2: Impacts on Carbon Emissions
Counterfactual Scenario: No Adoption of the Clean Air Act
E.X4
-------
Figure 6.3:- Net Impacts on the Fossil Fuel Intensity of the Economy
Couriterfactual Scenario: No Adoption of the Clean Air Act
E.15
-------
Figure 6.4: Net Impacts on the Carbon Intensity of the Economy
Counterfactual Scenario: No Adoption of the Clean Air Act
I I M II 1 H'n I I I U I I I J I M >1 f »i 11 M I ilk i "i1 i J I H H | MM ¥ f 1 I if f T t I I! M M U t I 1 TTTTT? it fir iilfiliifill I I Tf T TTf i t t i ik i i i i II llTiiTlilllf iilri
I
E.16
-------
Figure 6.5: Met Impacts on the Carbon Intensity of Fossil Fuel Use
Counterfactual Scenario: no Adoption of the Clean Air Act
E.17
-------
Figure 7.1: Impacts on Domestic Supply Prices, 1990
Counterfactual Scenario: No Adoption of the Clean Air Act
Agriculture, forestry, fisheries
Metal mining
Coal mining
Crude oil and gas extraction
Non metallic mineral mining
Construction
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and other textile
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum refining
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
Stone, clap and glass products
Primary metais
Fabricated metal products
lion-electrical machinery
electrical machinery
Motor vehicles
Other transportation equipment
Instruments
Miscellaneous manufacturing
Transportation and warehousing
Communications
Electric utilities (services)
Gas utilities (services)
Wholesale and retail trade
Finance, insurance and real estate
Personal and business services
Government enterprises
T
i Avoided Compliance Costs
•5,0%
-4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0%
Percentage change from (factual) base case
0.0%
1.0%
E.18
-------
Figure 7.2: Impacts on Domestic Output, 1990
Counterfactual Scenario: No Adoption of the Clean Air Act
Agriculture, forestry, fisheries
Metal mining
Coal mining
Crude oi! and gas extraction
Hon-met attic mineral mining
Construction
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and other textile
Lumber and wood products
S Furniture and fixtures
j Paper and allied products
j Printing and publishing
1 Chemicals and allied products
j Petroleum refining
| Rubber and plastic products
| Leather and Feather products
J Stone, clay and glass products
j Primary metals
! Fabricated metal products
j Non-electrical machinery
I Electrical machinery
I Motor vehicles
f Other transportation equipment
j instruments
I Miscellaneous manufacturing
' Tt ansportation and warehousing
| Communications
; Electric utilities (services)
' Gas utilities (services)
: Wholesale and retail trade
' Finance, insurance and real estate
j Personal and business services
Government enterprises
4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0%
Percentage change from (factual) base esse
F
m
a
¦ Avoided Compliance Costs
i
i
i
E.19
-------
Figure 7.3: Empacts on Domestic Supply Prices, 1990
Counterfactual Scenario: No Adoption of the Clean Air Act
Agriculture, forestry, fisheries
Metal mining
Coal mining
Crude oil and gas extraction
Non-metaflic mineral mining
Construction
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and other textile
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum refining
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
Stone, clay and glass products
Primary metals
Fabricated metal products
Non-electrical machinery
Electrical machinery
Motor vehicles
Other transportation equipment
instruments
Miscellaneous manufacturing
Transportation and warehousing
Communications
Electric utilities (services)
Gas utilities (services)
Wholesale and retail trade
Finance, insurance and real estate
Personal and business services
Government enterprises
•5.0%
4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0%
Percentage change from (factual) base case
0.0%
1.0%
E.20
-------
'Figure 7.4: Impacts on Domestic Output, 1990
Counterfactual Scenario: No Adoption of the Clean Afr Act
Agriculture, forestry, fisheries
Metal mining
Coal mining
Crude oil and gas extraction
Non-metallic miners! mining
Construction
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and other textile
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum refining
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
Stone, clay and glass products
Primary metals
Fabricated metal products
Non-electrical machinery
Electrical machinery
Motor vehicles
Other transportation equipment
Instruments
Miscellaneous manufacturing
Transportation and warehousing
Communications
Electric utilities (services)
Gas utilities (services)
, Wholesale and retail trade
-------
Figure 7.5: Realized Net Impacts on Domestic Supply Prices
Counterfactual Scenario: No Adoption of the Clean Air Act
^ ^ ^ ^ ^ J ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ if* ^
E.22
-------
8.0
Figure 7.6: Realized Net Impacts on Domestic Output
Gounterfactuai Scenario: No Adoption of the Clean Air Act
Coal mining
Petroleum refining
Primary metals
Motor vehicles
Electric utilities
Gas utilities
Services
-6.0
J
¦ft-*—
~t—-f—I—I—i—f
-r—t—rmTi i i '<•—r—r—r—y-r1"r "T"1 r*i—r—
r-'-t—r—t--*f~T---T—;—r-~f
^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ / /• /• / / ^ ^ / / / /
E.23
-------
Figure 7.7: Impacts on Domestic Supply Prices, 1990
Counterfactual Scenario: No Adoption of the Clean Air Act
Agriculture, forestry, fisheries
Metal mining
Coal mining
Crude oil and pas extraction
Mon-metalHc mineral mining
Construction
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and other textile
Lumber arid wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum refining
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
Stone, clay and glass products
Primary metals
Fabricated metal products
Non-electrical machinery
Electrical machinery
Motor vehicles
Other transportation equipment
Instruments
Miscellaneous manufacturing
Transportation and warehousing
Communications
Electric utilities (services)
Gas utilities (services)
Wholesale and retail trade
Finance, insurance and real estate
Personal and business services
Government enterprises
-5.0% -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0%
Percentage change from (factual) base case
¦ Realized Net Damages
s
E.24
-------
Figure 7.8: Impacts on Domestic Output, 1990
Counterfactual Scenario: No Adoption of the Clears Air Act
Agriculture, forestry, fisheries
Metal mining
Coat mining
Crude oi! and gas extraction
Non-metaBfc mineral mining
Construction
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and other textile
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum refining
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
Stone, clay and glass products
Primary metals
Fabricated metal products
Non electrical machinery
Electrical machinery
Motor vehicles
Other transportation equipment
Instruments
Miscellaneous manufacturing
Transportation and warehousing
Communications
Electric utilities (services)
Gas utilities (services)
Wholesale and retail trade
Finance, insurance and real estate
Personal and business services
Government enterprises
-4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0%
Percentage change from (factual) base case
E.25
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