Considerations for Accounting for Atmospheric Deposition in the Nitrogen Loading Allocations Chesapeake Bay Program Implementation Committee Issue Paper September 4, 2003 Conference Call Purpose: To request the Implementation Committee's decision on whether to account for atmospheric deposition load reductions within state tributary strategies and to purpose a means for accounting for reductions beyond existing regulations. To introduce to the Implementation Committee some options for accounting for nitrogen emissions reductions due to NOx emissions regulations and crediting voluntary emissions reductions in tributary strategies for upcoming Implementation Committee decisions. Background: Currently atmospheric deposition contributes about 30 percent of the nitrogen1 load delivered to the Chesapeake Bay and tidal tributaries. Atmospheric deposition, as a source/pathway2 of nitrogen loadings [the atmosphere is not a significant source/pathway of phosphorus], ranks about equal with the other two major source categories: point source discharges and agricultural runoff. Air emissions and the resultant atmospheric nitrogen deposition are now considered by the Chesapeake Bay Program partners as an integral component of the anthropogenic load on which the basinwide and major tributary basin by jurisdiction cap load allocations were derived. The tributary strategies now under development by the seven watershed jurisdictions and their stakeholders need to account for current atmospheric deposition loads and future anticipated/potential reductions from this "source/pathway". Why Atmospheric Deposition is "Hard" to Account for 1 The classes of compounds considered are reduced nitrogen (NHx)-ammonia and ammonium ion, a typical byproduct of agricultural activity, as well as many other sources; oxidized nitrogen (NOx)-as nitric acid and nitrate ion, a typical byproduct of fossil fuel combustion; and organic nitrogen-typically naturally occurring compounds such as amines in pollen. Atmospheric deposition is referred to here as a source and a pathway at the same time. The actual "sources" of the nitrogen deposited onto the lands or open water surfaces within the Bay watershed are utilities, auto emissions, releases from agricultural activities, etc. The atmosphere and the resultant dry or wet deposition is really the pathway through which the nitrogen is transported to the land/open surface waters. ------- The complexity inherent in assessing the contribution from atmospheric deposition to overall nitrogen loads is the path by which the nitrogen reaches the Bay. Nitrogen compounds are emitted into the atmosphere where they can be transported, mixed, and chemically changed by atmospheric processes. Eventually, some fraction of these emissions is deposited onto the landscape (e.g., the Bay watershed) or surface waters (e.g., free flowing river, tidal tributaries, mainstem Bay). Physical processes move the deposited nitrogen through the landscape to streams and rivers and eventually into the Bay or its tidal tributaries. Some landscapes will move the atmospherically deposited nitrogen faster than others (e.g., impervious services vs. forests). Modeling these processes is achieved through the Chesapeake Bay Program's Watershed Model (WSM). Modeling air emissions to atmospheric deposition to nitrogen loadings is also complex and time- consuming, especially on the atmospheric side where emissions are transported, transformed and deposited onto the landscape by a national air quality model, EPA's Community Multi-scale Air Quality or CMAQ model-formerly the Regional Acid Deposition Model or RADM. While the national model has provided a good assessment of the potential benefits of NOx emissions regulations, a single computer run for a single "scenario" can take two months from start through post processing of the model outputs. (Compare this with a 2 day turnaround for most watershed model scenarios and a 5 day turnaround for most Bay water quality model scenarios.) Another difficulty with using the national air quality model for Chesapeake Bay purposes is that it does not allow for a direct association to be made between an emission reduction at a specific source and the consequent reduction in the nitrogen load delivered to Bay tidal waters. What states/tributary teams want to know is how much of a reduction in nitrogen deposition (input) will occur to their tributary basins due to emissions regulations (e.g., NOx SIP) and how does this reduction change their tributary basin's delivered nitrogen load to Bay tidal waters. This "accounting" of decreased nitrogen deposition to each basin due to the regulations can be done using the current modeling tools (CMAQ and CB WSM) in hand. However, since the basin states are responsible for a significant percentage (-50%) of the nitrogen deposition to the watershed, serious consideration should be given to going beyond the emissions regulations. Important information to understand is how much do the emission reductions from sources located in their own state change the nitrogen deposition to their own tributary strategy basin(s), as well as to other basins in the watershed under varying source control actions. Accounting Tool Developed by MD DNR Maryland Department of Natural Resources has developed a tool that can establish an association between the emissions from a source at a location in the Chesapeake Bay airshed and the resulting load to Bay tidal waters due to those emissions. Once the association is set up, the estimated reductions in nitrogen load (by tributary strategy basin) due to an estimated reduction in nitrogen emissions can be easily determined. As each emission source is accounted for, each source can be assessed for a particular reduction strategy. Many "what if " strategies can be quickly tested and load reduction accounting is easily accomplished in a spreadsheet. Collections of reduction strategies-both required by regulation and voluntary that have been individually tested and ascribed a load reduction-can be accumulated. This accumulated ------- information can be passed back through the CMAQ model and then to the Chesapeake Bay watershed model for accounting of anticipated load reductions consistent with all other sources. Options to Consider for Accounting and Crediting: (Options are presented here only as background at this time—not requesting decisions on these options during the September conference call.) Option 1. Each Tributary Strategy Basin takes credit for all of the reductions in nitrogen deposition that occurs to its region that translates into reductions in nitrogen load delivered to Bay tidal waters. Advantage: Straightforward in terms of accounting for reductions in atmospheric deposition. Disadvantage: Can only account for national/state regulations that are imposed upon emission sources. It is unlikely that an emission source would do more than what is required if they are not given credit for their emission reductions Option 2. Each Tributary Strategy Basin receives credit for only the reduction in atmospheric nitrogen deposition and subsequent reduction in nitrogen loads delivered to Bay tidal waters resulting from emission sources located its respective basin boundaries. In other words, credit is given to the actual emission source and the state/tributary strategy basin where the source resides. The allocation of credits associated with reductions from sources outside of the watershed would need to be a policy decision. For example, if jurisdictions outside of the watershed are given credit for actions taken, these could be allocated to those sources that reduce their emissions. This would be an incentive for all sources in the airshed to participate in a nutrient trading program. Another option may be to allocate the reduction in deposition derived loads due to sources outside the watershed to the tributary strategy basin. A further option may be for the Chesapeake Bay Program partners to use some or all of these credits for nutrient auctions under a cap-and-trade program to develop price disclosure. Advantage: This option will make it possible for emission sector-wide regulatory and individual voluntary emission reduction actions to be credited to the actual entities making the emission reductions. Disadvantage: Will take a greater accounting effort than option 1. A suitable modeling tool will be needed. Option 3. A creative combination of the two above described options after further consultation with all the state partners. Requested IC Decisions Should the Bay Program partners account for atmospheric deposition load reductions within the state's tributary strategies? ------- Should the Bay program partners pursue evaluation of and account for air emissions reductions through pollution prevention, trading, and other "voluntary" means beyond existing Clean Air Act regulations? Requested IC Action Charge the ad-hoc CBP air team to: 1) further develop options for accounting for air emission reductions beyond existing regulations, 2) meet with each jurisdiction to walk them through the options, 3) review options with the Nutrient Subcommittee and 4) bring forward a defined set of options for Implementation Committee decision at the October meeting. ------- |