1.3. Uncertainty Ranges Associated with EPA's
Estimates of the Area of Land Close to Sea Level

Authors: James G. Titus, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Dave Cacela, Stratus Consulting Inc.

This section should be cited as:

Titus, J.G., and D. Cacela. 2008. Uncertainty Ranges Associated with EPA's Estimates of the
Area of Land Close to Sea Level. Section 1.3 in: Background Documents Supporting Climate
Change Science Program Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.1: Coastal Elevations and
Sensitivity to Sea Level Rise, J.G. Titus and E.M. Strange (eds.). EPA 430R07004. U.S.
EPA, Washington, DC.


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Section 1.3.1. Approach Author: James G. Titus

Introduction

Digital Elevation Model output allows one to
easily generate a point estimate ("best guess") of
the amount of land below a particular elevation
X by simply tabulating the number of points
below X and multiplying by the cell size that
each point represents. The accuracy of available
elevation data varies, however, so the accuracy
of these point estimates of the area estimates will
vary as well. For some purposes, it may be
sufficient to have a "best guess" estimate. But for
other purposes, one needs some sort of
uncertainty range. Fortunately, most elevation
data come with a precision estimate, which
makes it possible to develop an uncertainty
range.

Section 1.3 explains how Dave Cacela and this
author generated an uncertainty range for the
estimates of the amount of land close to sea level
within different shore protection categories and
different elevations, which form the basis of this
report. Section 1.3.1 explains the assumptions
and the basic approach for estimating
uncertainty; Section 1.3.2 explains how the
approach was implemented. Section 1.3.3
provides the results. The final results constitute
the three appendices to this section.

Like Section 1.2, by Jones and Wang, the
starting point is the elevation data set developed
in Section 1.1 by Titus and Wang. The approach
for specifying uncertainty is based on the most
important sources of error in that analysis. The
actual implementation, however, uses the output
from Section 1.2, in which Jones and Wang
overlay the elevation study by Titus and Wang
with the eight state-specific shore protection
studies that Titus and Hudgens developed in
their unpublished analysis mentioned in Section
1.2. Section 1.1 provided cumulative elevation
distributions for dry land and nontidal wetlands;

Section 1.2 subdivided the dry land into the
various shore protection categories. Our
exposition of the approach taken focuses on the
elevation distribution of dry land. But not only
did we apply the procedure to the totals for dry
land, we also applied it to all the other shore
protection categories and nontidal wetlands.

We warn the reader at the outset that this section
switches between metric (standard international)
and English (imperial) units of measurement.
The final results are in metric units—but most of
the underlying elevation data were based on
topographic maps with contour intervals
measured in feet. The point of measurements
provided in this section is generally to explain
the relationship between input data and
assumptions, not to inform the reader about the
magnitude of any particular effect. Therefore, the
reader unfamiliar with one or the other system of
measurements need not attempt to make
conversions. In the few cases where that actual
magnitude may matter, our convention is metric.

Background

Previous assessments of the land vulnerable to
sea level rise have provided an uncertainty range;
but the uncertainty range did not include
uncertainty associated with topographic
information. EPA's 1989 Report to Congress
provided an uncertainty range about the area of
land lost for a rise in sea level of 50, 100, or 200
cm. In Appendix B to that Report to Congress,
Titus and Greene (1989) developed the
uncertainty range, based on a study by Park et al.
(1989), who used a sample of study area sites,
and calculated a point estimate of land loss of
each site. The published uncertainty range used a
simple sampling error approach, treating the
study sites as a random sample from the entire
population of USGS quads. Because Park et al.
did not report an uncertainty range for their


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[70 UNCERTAINTY RANGES ASSOCIATED WITH EPA'S ESTIMATES ]

sample sites, Titus and Greene made no attempt
to include that uncertainty. In effect, Titus and
Greene assumed that Park et al. accurately
estimated the amount of land at particular
elevations in those areas they assessed. The true
uncertainty associated with their estimates
included both sampling and measurement error;
but the published uncertainty range considered
only the sampling error.

This study uses the elevation data from Section
1.1, as formatted by the analysis explained in
Section 1.2. That data set estimated the
elevations of all land above spring high water.
That is, it estimated elevations for dry land and
nontidal wetlands, but did not estimate
elevations for tidal wetlands. (Knowing that land
is tidal wetland tells us that the land elevation is
below spring high water and above mean low
water, which provides a narrower uncertainty
range about the elevation than if we know only
that the land is below, for example, the 10-ft
contour on a topographic map.) Because they
obtained data for the entirety of the study area,
there is no sampling error. The source of error
stems entirely from the limitations in precision
of the Section 1.1 results.

The overall approach is to make an assumption
about the potential vertical error of the elevation
data and the extent to which that error is random
versus systematic. The magnitude of the error
varies by data source: because we assume that
error is a function of contour interval, which in
turn varies by topographic quad, we calculate
error separately for each topographic quad. Let
us first explain our basis for focusing on vertical
error of the elevation data, and then explain how
low and high estimates for areas were calculated
where the input data were USGS contour maps
and other data with relatively coarse contour
intervals (1 meter or worse), as well as our
procedure for when the data had higher quality
(2 feet or better).

Horizontal and Vertical Precision

Figure 1.3.1 depicts the various sources of data
used to estimate elevations and the areas of land
at particular elevations. In most locations, Titus
and Wang relied on USGS 1:24,000 scale maps
with various contour intervals. The second most
common source of data was LIDAR provided by
Maryland or North Carolina, which give
elevations at various points in a grid.

USGS maps follow the national mapping
standards for vertical and horizontal precision.
The vertical standard is that 90 percent of the
well-defined points along a contour must be
within one-half the contour interval above or
below the stated elevation of the contour. The
horizontal standard is that 90 percent of the
points should be within one fiftieth of an inch
(about half a millimeter). On a 1:24,000 scale
map, the allowable horizontal accuracy would be
12 meters. The LIDAR data sources generally
have vertical precision on the order of 10-30 cm
and horizontal error of less than 1 meter.

To keep the analysis reasonably manageable, this
study ignores the horizontal error and focuses
entirely on the vertical errors. Inspection of the
USGS maps and the maps produced by Titus and
Wang shows that most lowland is in an area
where the contours are hundreds—and often
thousands—of meters apart. Random error on
the order of 12 meters is very small by
comparison and not likely to substantially
change an estimated error range. The horizontal
error of LIDAR seemed even less likely to
matter. In an assessment of the impacts of rising
sea level, what matters is that most of the input
data had contour intervals of 5 feet (150 cm) or
worse, and we are interested in the implications
of a 50-cm rise.


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[ SECTION 1 .3 71 ]

PA



MD

fi

/ ^
J c

DC

VA







ATLANTIC
OCEAN

Contour Intervals

| Spot Elevation
Lidar
2 Feet
1 Meter
5 Feet
10 Feet

10 Feet, State Data
20 Feet

Figure 1.3.1. Input Elevation Data used in Section 1.1 to Estimate Area of Land Close to Sea Level.

Quadrangles with a 10-ft contour interval and a 5-ft supplemental contour are shown as 5 feet. The
Maryland data included 5-ft contours drawn from spot elevation with RMS error of 5 feet; hence the legend
calls the data "10 feet, State Data"; USGS 5-ft contours have an RMS error of 2,5 feet.


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[72 UNCERTAINTY RANGES ASSOCIATED WITH EPA'S ESTIMATES ]

Areas with USGS Maps as the Input Data

This analysis assumes that the standard deviation
of error within a neighborhood is one-half the
contour interval, based on National Map
Accuracy standards. For reasons discussed
below, the calculations also assume that half the
error is random and half is systematic, so that the
standard deviation of the uncertainty is one-
quarter the contour interval for areas the size of a
county or larger. These assumptions are adjusted
to address possible error in the estimate of spring
high water (SHW).

Our Initial Model of Vertical Error

Based on a comparison of their model results
with LIDAR from Maryland and North Carolina
(see Section 1.1, Jones 2007, and Jones et al.
2008), Titus and Wang report that the root mean
square (RMS) error1 of their elevation data sets
tended to be approximately one-half the contour
interval of the input contour. (Strictly speaking,
their comparison measured the root mean square
of the difference between the DEM and the
LIDAR, which overestimates the error of the
DEM.2) That finding seems roughly consistent
with the National Map Accuracy Standard that
90 percent of the well-defined points should be
within one-half contour interval of the stated
elevation (Bureau of the Budget 1947)—
"roughly" because they are not identical: If mean
error is zero, a 90 percent confidence limit will
almost always be a wider interval than the range
defined by an estimate plus or minus the RMS

1	RMS error is calculated by taking the difference between
the estimated and actual values for each point, squaring
that difference, taking the sum of squares, dividing that
sum by the total number of data points, and taking the
square root. If the mean error is zero, RMS error is equal
to the standard deviation of the error. If the mean error is
not zero, then RMS error is equal to the square root of the
sum of (a) the square of the mean error plus (b) the square
of the standard deviation of the error.

2	In general, whenever one has two independent
measurements Mi and M2, with random error ei and e2,

variance(Mi-M2) = variance (ei) + variance (e2).

Thus, the variance of one error is equal to the variance of
the difference minus the variance of the other error.

error. In a normal distribution, the 90 percent
interval would encompass a range ±1.64 times
the RMS error (generally called standard
deviation or o in this case).3 But one would
expect the error across all elevations to be
greater than the error at those elevations where
we have a contour. For example, if a USGS map
says that one contour is 5 feet above the vertical
datum and that another contour is 10 feet above
the vertical datum, and then one estimates an 8-ft
contour through interpolation, we would expect
the USGS contours to be somewhat more
accurate than the 8-ft contour derived from the
two USGS contours. So the assumption that 90
percent of the points along the contour are within
one-half the contour interval of the stated
elevation would be roughly consistent with the
assumption that the standard deviation of error
for all elevations is one-half the contour
interval.4 Because Titus and Wang did not know
whether their estimates have a mean error or not,
the more general term "RMS error" better
describes the uncertainty. The contour intervals
vary from place to place—but we know the
contour interval at all locations. Therefore, this
study assumes that RMS error equals one-half
the contour interval for all locations where
contour maps were the underlying source of the
data.

Given that the availability of an estimate of the
RMS error, this author's first thought was that
the low and high estimates could be derived by
simply (a) adding and subtracting the RMS error
from the DEM5 data set developed by Titus and
Wang, cell by cell, and then (b) retabulating the
data. In effect, this approach would add and

3The RMS error band includes about 68 percent of all data
points.

4In the case of normally distributed error, we are saying, in
effect, that 90 percent of the points along the contour are
within 0.5 contour interval, while 90 percent of all points
are within 0.82 (1.64/2) the contour interval of the stated
elevation.

5DEM is an abbreviation for digital elevation model.
Literally, that means the model used to calculate
elevations. People in the business of making elevation
maps, however, often use this term when referring to the
actual set of elevation data points calculated by their
model. The Titus and Wang data set we used has data
points on a 30-m grid.


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[ SECTION 1 .3 73 ]

15 ft

C

o

-4—'

03
>
Q)
LU

10 ft

SHW

Area below
1st contour

subtract the RMS
error from the
cumulative
distribution of
elevations. However,
as those authors
discuss in Section
1.1, their DEM
contained plateaus
along the input
contours, which were
artifacts of the
interpolation
algorithm, with no
physical basis.6
Therefore, they
concluded that a
linear interpolation
of elevations
between the contours
would give a better
estimate of the area
of land below a
particular elevation

than the cumulative distribution of their cell-by-
cell DEM output. Therefore, their elevation
density distribution

assumed that elevations were uniformly
distributed between contours. If the input data
said that there are 100 ha of land between the 5-
and 10-ft contours, for example, then there are
20 ha between the 5- and 6-ft contours, they
assumed. Thus, their cumulative elevation
distribution function was a series of line
segments connecting a few points that represent
actual observations based on the contour interval
and the area of land above spring high water land
below specific contours.7 (See the green line in
Figure 1.3.2, discussed below.)

This study assumes that the same logic that
applies for the "point estimates" would apply to

Green dots represent observation from the maps; Green Line represents interpolated central estim^
Red dots represent positive contour error or negative SHW error
Black dots represent negative contour error or positive SHW error

Solid lines: No SHW error or all three SHW error estimates coincide
Dashed lines: SHW error compounds contour error (relative to SHW)

Dotted lines: SHW error offsets contour error (relative to SHW)

Area below
2nd contour

Area below
3rd contour

Figure 1.3.2. Interpolated Elevation Estimates Relative to NGVD29. Central
estimate and high contour error (with and without SHW error, relative to NGVD,
ignoring model error). This case assumes a 5-ft contour interval, a 1 -ft error in
estimating the elevation of spring high water, and contour error of 2.5 feet. Red
dots represent positive contour error and negative SHW error, both of which cause
a positive error in our estimates of elevation relative to SHW.

EPA's effort to estimate an uncertainty range.
Choosing instead to add or subtract one-half
contour interval from the DEM, would (for
example) create data sets with plateaus at 2.5,
7.5, 12.5, and 17.5 feet in those areas where the
USGS data had a contour interval of 5 feet, just
as the Titus and Wang output had plateaus at
SHW, 5, 10, 15, and 20 feet.8

Let us go back to the source information. For
each quad, Titus and Wang provide

•	the areas of land that lie below specific
elevation contours from the input data set
(e.g., the area between the 5- and 10-ft
contours in a given quad), and

•	their estimate of the elevation of spring high
water relative to NGVD29 (derived from
NOAA tidal datum).

6See Section 1.1.3 at Step 4, and especially Table 1.1.3 in
Section 1.1.4. The large horizontal error but small vertical
error in replicating contours is indicative of large plateaus.

7In an area with a 5-ft contour interval, those points would
be (SHW, 0), (5, A(5)), (10, A(10)), (15, A(15)), (20,
A(20)) ... etc., where A(x) is the area of land between
spring high water and elevation x.

8Their data set also created plateaus just above their spring
high water supplemental contour. Thus, if spring high
water is 2 feet (NGVD29), then the high-elevation estimate
would have a plateau at 4.5 feet; the low-elevation
estimate would have a plateau at 2.5 feet below spring high
water, that is, -0.5 feet (NGVD29).


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[74 UNCERTAINTY RANGES ASSOCIATED WITH EPA'S ESTIMATES ]

Area below	Area below	Area below

1st contour	2*contour	3*contour

Figure 1.3.3. Interpolated Elevation Estimates Relative to Spring High Water. Central estimate and
high contour error (with and without SHW error, relative to SHW, ignoring model error). This case assumes
a 5-ft contour interval, a 1 -ft error in estimating the elevation of spring high water, and contour error of 2.5
feet.

The estimates of the land below various
elevations were based on simple linear
interpolation of this information.9 Figures 1.3.2
through 1.3.4 illustrate a proposed approach to
generating high and low elevation estimates,
respectively. But before discussing that

approach, let us examine a depiction of the Titus
and Wang analysis (see Section 1.1) used as
input to this study. In Figure 1.3.2 (as well as
Figures 1.3.3 and 1.3.4), the four green dots
represent the values of the input data. This
example quad has a 5-ft contour interval, and
spring high water is estimated to be 3 feet above
NGVD29. The first green dot shows the
estimated elevation of spring high water; this dot

9In some cases, the 5-ft contour was seaward of the
wetland boundary and the Titus and Wang interpolation
disregarded the 5-ft contour on the assumption that it was
obsolete. In those cases, the interpolation created—in
effect—a new 5-ft contour farther inland, which was used
in quantifying the land below 5 feet in a given quad.

appears along the vertical axis because all the
dry land and nontidal wetlands are above spring
high water (by definition). The other three points
show the amount of land (other than tidal
wetlands) below the 5-, 10-, and 15-ft contours.
The green line is the cumulative elevation
distributions that Titus and Wang derived
through interpolation—but transposed so that the
cumulative elevation is on the horizontal axis
and elevation on the vertical axis. The figures are
transposed from the traditional way of depicting
cumulative distribution functions, because the
transposed version gives us the actual profile of a
typical transect or cross section of the land.

Now let us consider a possible way to think
about high and low error. In Figure 1.3.2, the
three red dots with elevations of 7.5, 12.5, and
17.5 feet represent high estimates of the
elevation of the contours. That is, given the RMS
error of one-half the contour interval (2.5 feet),
the 5-ft contour could actually be as high as 7.5
feet. Along the vertical axis, we see three dots.


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[ SECTION 1 .3 75 ]



C

o

+J

(0
>
0

LU

I	

Area below
1st contour

i

Area below
2nd contour

Area below
3rd contour

Figure 1.3.4. Interpolated Elevation Estimates Relative to NGVD29. Central estimate and low contour
error (with and without SHW error, relative to NGVD, ignoring model error). This case assumes a 5-ft
contour interval, a 1 -ft error in estimating the elevation of SHW, and contour error of 2.5 feet

As previously mentioned, the green dot is the
estimate of spring high water (3 feet). The red
and black dots at 2 and 4 feet, respectively,
represent the possibility that Titus and Wang
over- or underestimated SHW, respectively. The
three red lines represent the alternative high-
elevation cumulative elevation distributions (and
average profile) implied by the three different
estimates of the elevation of SHW. In all these
cases, the profile is steeper than the profile
implied by the input data. The dashed line—
where spring high water is less than estimated—
provides the steepest profile and hence the
greatest error. Put another way, the dashed line
assumes that SHW is lower—and the contour is
higher—than assumed by Titus and Wang; i.e.,
the errors compound. Figure 1.3.3 shows the
same four cases, but with elevations relative to
spring high water instead of NGVD29.
Comparing Figures 1.3.2 and 1.3.3 may help one
visualize the impact of SHW error on the land
profile (cumulative elevation distribution)
assumed in the calculations. Each of the four

profiles has the same shape in Figure 1.3.3 as it
has in Figure 1.3.2. When measured against
NGVD (Figure 1.3.2), the three high-contour
error profiles start at different elevations
(reflecting uncertainty about the elevation of the
lowest spot of dry land, SHW) but coincide after
the first contour (because SHW error has no
impact on the topographic contours). When
measured against SHW (Figure 1.3.3), the
profiles all start out at zero, because error in
estimating SHW has no impact on the
definitional assumption that dry land extends
down to SHW. But the profiles diverge because
errors in SHW have a 1:1 impact on elevations
measured relative to SHW. Whatever the true
elevation of the 5-ft contour relative to

NGVD29, overestimating SHW by 1 foot lowers
the estimated elevation relative to SHW by 1
foot.10

"The error of elevations relative to spring high water
would be 1 foot greater if the red dot (in Figure 1.3.2) was

Solid lines: No SHW error or all three SHW error estimates coincide
Dashed lines: SHW error compounds contour error (relative to SHW)
Dotted lines: SHW error offsets contour error (relative to SHW)

5ft
SHW

Green dots represent observation from the maps; Green Line represents interpolated central estimate
Red dots represent positive contour error or negative SHW error
Black dots represent negative contour error or positive SHW error


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[76 UNCERTAINTY RANGES ASSOCIATED WITH EPA'S ESTIMATES ]

All the figures show the implications of errors in
spring high water and elevation estimates. There
is no reason to think that these errors are
correlated and every reason to assume that they
are independent: two different federal agencies
(USGS and NOAA) compiled the underlying
data.11 Therefore, when calculating uncertainty,
we should assume that these errors are
independent. It follows that the total elevation
error is calculated as the square root of the sum
of squares. Thus, in areas where the contour
error is significant, the error in spring high water
makes very little difference. But in areas with
precise elevation data, error in spring high water
can account for about one-half the total error.

Figure 1.3.4 presents a story similar to Figure
1.3.2 but for the low elevation case. The story is
not completely symmetrical because of the first
contour. The contour interval of the USGS maps
at this location is 5 feet; but it is almost
impossible for the USGS contour to have
overestimated the actual elevations by 2.5 feet.
Substantial dry land ("area below 1st contour") is
above SHW (approximately 3 feet NGVD) and
below the first contour. If the low elevation
estimate were to assume that the lowest contour
is at 2.5 feet, there would be an impossible
result: the land above SHW (3 feet) cannot also
be below 2.5 feet. This analysis avoids such an
anomaly by assuming that RMS error is one-half
the actual contour interval used. Thus, if SHW is
between 2 and 4 feet, the lowest contour interval
is 1 to 3 feet; so the low case assumes that the
lowest contour is between 3.5 and 4.5 feet above
NGVD (depending on the error in estimating
SHW) rather than at 2.5 feet.

Although map accuracy standards provide a
basis for the contour-error assumption, the
literature does not provide a good estimate of
uncertainty for SHW. This exposition has looked
at the case where the error in SHW is 1 foot,

because whole numbers can help simplify
numerical illustrations. Our final results,
however, assume that uncertainty for spring high
water is approximately 15 cm (6 inches). Section
1.1 suggests that error is likely to be less than 6
inches, pointing out that the estimates are based
on interpolation of spring tide ranges from more
than 750 sites, and that the variation from site to
site tends to be about 5 cm (2 to 3 inches), or
less. Within a given quad—the unit of analysis
for this study—those errors should cancel to
some extent, causing the error to be less.

Using an Error Function to Represent Low
and High Cumulative Distributions

The previous discussion explains the low and
high estimates as alternative possibilities for the
average shore profile, given the points along the
profile for which observations are available. That
is, the discussion compared the "best guess"
profile estimated by Titus and Wang, with
proposed high and low profiles. Recall, however,
that although one usually displays y = f(x), in
this case, the argument of the function is shown
on the vertical axis. That is, in Section 1.1, Titus
and Wang estimated the area as a function of
elevation. Similarly, this study needs to estimate
the low and high estimates as a function of
elevation.

For computational purposes, it may be useful to
think of error as a function of the best-guess
central estimate. Viewed together, Sections 1.1
and Section 1.2 estimate the area of land within
each shore protection category within each quad
by 0.1-ft elevation increments. Thus, if one can
express low = f(central estimate) and high =
g(central estimate), then one need merely assign
low and high elevations to each area. That is:

A_loWik.low.f(E) = Aik,E

A_highik.high.g(E) — A;k_E

the actual value, and 1 foot less if the black dot was the
actual value.

11 The Section 1.1 estimates of spring high water are based
entirely on NOAA tidal observations and NOAA analysis
relating mean sea level to the fixed reference elevations
used by topographic data (i.e., NAVD88 and NGVD29).


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[ SECTION 1 .3 77 ]

Note: H(A1_low) = contour - k*(contour-SHW),

where k represents the ratio of RMS error to contour H(A1_lowest) = contour - k*(contour-SHWH) H(A1_bitlow) = contour - k*(contour-SHWL)
Interval, typically 1/2	SHWH=SHW-SHW_error	SHWL=SHW+SHW_error

Figure 1.3.5. High and Low Estimates as a Function of the Best Guess. The difference between the
red line and the green is the high vertical error; the difference between the black line and the green is the
low vertical error. High error is constant beyond the first contour; low error is constant beyond the second
contour. The vertical scale of this drawing is exaggerated below one contour to better display the
relationships at low elevations.

where Ay,E represents the area of land in the ith
shore protection category in the kthUSGS quad
at elevation E, as estimated in Section 1.212; f
and g are the error functions that express low and
high elevation estimates as a function of the
central estimate of elevation, and A low and
A high represent the areas of land at elevation E
in the low and high elevation cases. Figure 1.3.5
shows the low and high elevations as a function
of the central estimate of elevation, i.e., functions
f and g.

Refinements

Our initial model has two important flaws: it
assumes that precision in modeling a single point
is the same as our precision in estimating the
total, and it ignores the model error of our linear

"Jones and Wang overlaid the elevation data from Titus
and Wang with the shore protection likelihood maps from
an unpublished analysis to create cumulative elevation
distribution functions for each of the shore protection
categories. In effect, they subdivided the cumulative
elevation distribution functions estimated by Titus and
Wang, into the separate cumulative distribution functions
for the different categories of likelihood of shore
protection. Thus, all the uncertainties we analyze here
result from the Titus and Wang analysis; but the actual
input data came from Jones and Wang.

interpolation. Let us examine each of these
issues.

Systematic and random error. Intuitively, one
might assume that the precision with which one
can reasonably estimate the area of vulnerable
land is the same as the precision of the input
data. But that is true only if all errors are
perfectly correlated. If we think that all
elevations are likely to have been over- or
underestimated by the same amount, then the
ability to estimate the total is no more precise
than the ability to estimate the elevation of a
particular location. In such a case, there is no
random error; all error is systematic. But that
should rarely be the case.

Most elevation estimates include both a random
and a systematic component. Along the contour,
random errors would be expected as a human
being attempts to trace a contour while viewing
aerial photographs through a stereoplotter;
systematic error might occur through biases
caused by settings in the instrumentation or by
subsiding benchmark elevations. Between the
contours, systematic errors are likely because the
actual "lay of the land" often departs from what
one would expect from a linear interpolation. In
developed areas, people have often filled and


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[78 UNCERTAINTY RANGES ASSOCIATED WITH EPA'S ESTIMATES ]

bulkheaded the shore, increasing the amount of
land 50-100 cm above the tides at the expense of
land 0-50 cm above the tides; in undeveloped
areas bluffs occur in some areas, and the land
follows a more gentle slope in other areas.

A sophisticated treatment of this question is
beyond our time and budget constraints.
Therefore, we need a simple parameterization.
Figures 1.3.6 compares the cumulative elevation
distributions of LIDAR collected by the state of
Maryland (see Section 1.1, Jones 2007, and
Jones et al. 2008 for additional details) to the
interpolated results for the area on the Eastern
Shore of Maryland where LIDAR was available
(see Figure 1.3.1), subdivided into four subareas
with varying data quality. The vertical axes omit
magnitudes, which are unimportant for the
purposes here.

The four figures all suggest that systematic error
is well less than one-half the contour interval. In
the areas with a 5-ft contour interval (Figure
1.3.6a), the DEM interpolation is about 1 foot
lower (to the left) than the LIDAR below 3 feet;
but above 4 feet the interpolation and LIDAR are
less than 0.5 feet (15 cm) apart. In the areas with
a 1-m contour (Figure 1.3.6b), the DEM
interpolation and LIDAR are less than 10 cm (4
inches) apart below 1 meter. Above that point,
the DEM interpolation increases to 50 cm greater
than the LIDAR, but the difference is generally
25 cm. In the area that used the Maryland DNR
data—which have an RMS error of 5 feet—the
difference is less than 1 foot (30 cm) below the
10-ft contour (Figure 1.3.6c). It increases to 2.5
feet at the 15-ft contour before declining. In
those areas that rely on USGS 20-ft contours
(Figure 1.3.6d), the DEM underestimates the
elevation by 2 to 3 feet, on average.

These comparisons (as well as the comparison
with North Carolina LIDAR reported by Jones
[2007] and Section 1.1.) lead to two insights
worth applying in this error assessment. First, in
areas the size of a county or two, the cumulative
elevation distribution is within one-half the
nominal RMS error of the data most of the time;
and it almost never exceeds the reported RMS
error. Therefore, one would expect that when
there are many counties (e.g. results for entire

states), the cumulative elevation distribution
would continue to converge and almost never
exceed one-half the nominal RMS error of the
data set. That is, it seems safe to assume that the
systematic error over a large area is no more
than one-half the reported RMS error of the
data. Therefore, this error assessment assumes
that when USGS maps are the input data set, the
low and high estimates are one-quarter the
contour below and above the central estimates
derived by interpolating between those contours
in Section 1.2. that the high error may be greater
than the low error, as displayed in Figures 1.3.2
and 1.3.4.

Model error from linear interpolation. The

potential for linear interpolation to understate
elevations appears to be particularly pronounced
at very low elevations. The approach described
so far assumes, in effect, that below the first
contour, error is proportional to elevation
(relative to SHW). But there is no reason to
assume that precision increases at low
elevations; that was simply an artifact of linear
interpolation in a scheme designed to prevent
assuming the impossible, such as dry land being
below spring high water. These assumptions
seem more defensible on the low end than on the
high end. That is, assuming that the area of land
below elevation X is proportional to X below the
first contour is more unreasonable for the high-
elevation uncertainty than the low-elevation
uncertainty:


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[ SECTION 1 .3 79 ]

Elevation (cm)

Elevation (ft) NGVD

Figure 1.3.6. Cumulative Area of Land Close to Sea Level according to USGS National Elevation Data
(NED), interpolation of the Titus and Wang DEM, and State of Maryland's LIDAR in the area where LIDAR
was available (see Figure 1.3.1). The data are divided according to the best available data other than
LIDAR: (a) USGS maps with 5- ft contours; (b) USGS maps with 1 meter contours, (c) 5-foot contours
created from MD-DNR data in areas where USGS maps had 20-ft contours; and (d) USGS 20-ft contours.
See Section 1.1 and accompanying metadata for more details.


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[80 UNCERTAINTY RANGES ASSOCIATED WITH EPA'S ESTIMATES ]

MD DNR Data (nominal 5-ft)

(/) 25000
0)

¦NED

¦DEM Interpolate
¦Lidar

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

Elevation (ft) NGVD

2500

2000

(/>
0)

USGS 20-ft Contour

re 1500

o

0)

CO
0)

1000

500

NED

DEM Interpolate
Lidar

4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

Elevation (NGVD ft)

Figure 1.3.6. Cumulative Area of Land Close to Sea Level according to USGS National Elevation Data
(NED), interpolation of the Titus and Wang DEM, and State of Maryland's LIDAR in the area where LIDAR
was available (see Figure 1.3.1). The data are divided according to the best available data other than
LIDAR: (a) USGS maps with 5- ft contours; (b) USGS maps with 1 meter contours, (c) 5-foot contours
created from MD-DNR data in areas where USGS maps had 20-ft contours; and (d) USGS 20-ft contours.
See Section 1.1 and accompanying metadata for more details.


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[ SECTION 1 .3 81 ]

Second, the tendency for the DEM interpolation
to underestimate elevations appears to be
somewhat more pronounced than any tendency
to overestimate elevations. In Maryland this is
clearly the case. (Titus and Wang, and Jones,
found that in North Carolina, the interpolation
overestimated elevations of very low land; but
they concluded that the unique situation of North
Carolina was probably to blame in that case.13)
That tends to reinforce our inclination to assume

•	The wetlands boundary is at the kink of the
most common concave-up profile. So the use
of wetlands data means that interpolation
already accounts for cases where the profile
is below a linear trend.

•	The accuracy assessment shows the Section

1.1 DEM to underestimate elevations close to
spring high water (see Figure 1.3.6):

-	In Maryland, they generally found that
more than half of the land between spring
high water and the first contour was
above the midpoint between spring high
water and the elevation of the first
contour.

-	The error was particularly great when the
contour interval was large.

•	USGS contour selection also creates a
downward bias: Consider an area with a 10-ft
contour. If there is much land below the 5-ft
contour, USGS is likely to reduce the contour
interval to 5 feet or at least collect a 5-ft
supplemental contour. This does not always
occur, but the tendency is enough for a high-
elevation scenario to assume that there is no
land below the 2.5-ft contour.

13Much of North Carolinas coastal wetlands are truly are
classified as nontidal wetlands, and hence the
interpolations in Section 1.1 treated them as uniformly
distributed between SHW and the 5-ft contour, which is
generally more than 1 meter above SHW. (The final results
used LIDAR and hence are not affected directly by this
problem.) Much of those wetlands are at sea level, and
classified as nontidal because the rivers and sounds along
which they are found have an astronomical tide so small
that, for most practical purposes, it is nontidal. When
considering the impact of sea level rise, it would be more
accurate to consider these areas to be "nanotidal wetlands."

• The mathematics limits downside

uncertainty: Because elevations must be
above spring high water, they can only be a
little bit less than the very low elevations
under consideration, while they could be
much higher.

Thus, if the point estimate assumes 100 hectares
within 0.5 feet above spring high water, it is
desirable that the low estimate does not assume
100 hectares to be 2 feet below spring high
water. That does not mean, however, that the
high estimate ought to rule out the possibility
that this land is actually 3 feet above spring high
water. Low bluffs really are common along the
coast—so a high scenario that assumes a low
bluff with an elevation of contour/4 is actually
quite realistic. (By contrast, a high scenario that
assumes an unmapped dike protecting low land
that it contour/4 below spring high water is not
realistic.) Put another way, there is good reason
to not think that there is a large amount of dry
land below high tide—but there is no reason to
think that there is a significant amount of land
just above spring high water. Therefore, the high
scenario should allow for the possibility that
there is no significant amount land barely above
the tides.

Figure 1.3.6 supports this concern. In Figures
1.3.6a and 1.3.6c, the interpolation understates
elevations by about 1 foot below 4 feet in
elevation, and then declines. In Figure 1.3.6d,
where the underlying USGS maps have a 20-ft
contour interval, the interpolation finds as much
land below 3 feet as LIDAR finds below 5 feet,
and as much land below 17 feet as the LIDAR
finds below 20 feet. Thus, at an elevation of one-
quarter the contour interval, the error is about
two-thirds the error seen at the contour. (In
Figure 1.3.6b, the error is fairly minor at all
elevations.)


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[82 UNCERTAINTY RANGES ASSOCIATED WITH EPA'S ESTIMATES ]

Area below	Area below	Area below

1st contour	2*contour	3*contour

Green dots represent observation from the maps,
central estimate

Red dots: positive contour error
Black dots: negative contour error
Solid lines: No SHW error

Green Line represents interpolated

Figure 1.3.7. High Elevation Estimates Relative to Spring High Water, including Possible Model
Error (with and without SHW error, relative to NGVD, ignoring model error). This case assumes a 5-ft
contour interval, a 1 -ft error in estimating the elevation of SHW, a contour error of 2.5 feet, and a high-end
error that is always at least one-quarter the contour interval

There is no completely satisfactory way to model
this possibility. The simplest approach would
have been to simply add and subtract one-quarter
the contour interval to the entire distribution, but
this analysis employs a more complicated
approach in part to avoid impossible results in
the low case (e.g., dry land up to one-quarter the
contour interval below SHW). But this is not a
problem with the high scenario. Therefore, the
high scenario assumes that all land is at least
one-quarter times the contour interval above
SHW. In effect, the high estimate assumes that
one can not rule out a bluff with an elevation at
one-quarter the lowest contour interval.
Comparing Figure 1.3.7 to Figure 1.3.3 shows
that this assumption has no impact on elevations
above the first contour.

Areas with Higher Precision Data

In areas with higher precision data, these
considerations are less important. They mostly
apply to problems between contours; and EPA
does not need elevations in increments finer than
50 cm. What is important is that no matter how
precise the elevation data, we will report some
uncertainty because LIDAR measures elevations

relative to a fixed reference plane, while we
report elevations relative to spring high water,
which we estimate imprecisely. As mentioned
above, this analysis assumes that the estimates of
spring high water have an error of 15 cm (6
inches).

In Section 1.1, Titus and Wang used the LIDAR,
spot elevation, and actual DEM results where
contour intervals were 2 feet (60 cm) or less.
Therefore, the interpolation model did not apply
and it would be reasonable to simply add or
subtract the systematic error. We saved some
time, however, by applying the algorithm
developed for USGS data to these results as well
rather than rewriting a separate algorithm.


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Section 1.3.2. Implementing the Approach using
Geographically Specific Error Functions Approach

Author: Dave Cacela, Stratus Consulting Inc.

The objective of elevation uncertainty analyses is
to acknowledge uncertainty about the actual
elevation of any particular geographic region and
to quantify it so that the elevation in a particular
region can be expressed as a range of plausible
values. Consequently, estimates of flooded areas
under any particular scenario of sea level rise can
also be expressed as a range of plausible values.

This section reports the actual methods used to
calculate ranges of plausible elevation that
reflect the reasoning about landscapes,
interpretation of map accuracy, and between-
contour interpolation methods described in
Section 1.3.1. It is intended to describe the
essential features of methodology introduced in
Section 1.3.1 that were actually applied in the
uncertainty analysis in a manner that includes
specific mathematical definitions that allow for
reproducibility.

The reasoning in Section 1.3.1 about uncertainty
is described in terms of two generalized error
functions. One of the functions defines the lower
limit of plausible elevation and the other defines
the upper limit. Considered jointly, the error
functions define the amount of uncertainty about
elevation (vertical error) associated with any
geographic point. To quantify uncertainty in a
particular geographic location, the generalized
error functions are used with parameters that are
specific to that particular location to define
plausible ranges of elevation for that location.
Plausible ranges of elevation determine in this
manner are subsequently translated into plausible
ranges of area that may be inundated by various
sea level rise scenarios.

Magnitude of Uncertainty in the
Data Sources

Uncertainty analyses consider two main sources
of uncertainty. The analyses consider both types
of uncertainty jointly to generate an estimate of
total uncertainty that is specific to each
geographic area in the study.

One source of uncertainty derives from
imprecision in elevation values in the source
data. Each location in the study area is
represented by one of several types of source
data with differing amounts of inherent
precision. As described in Section 1.3.1, the
inherent precision of each type of source data is a
known value that is expressed as the root mean
square error (RMSE) and in the same units of
measure as the vertical units provided (Table
1.3.1). Data with greater inherent precision have
less uncertainty with regard to the true elevation
of a particular geographic point and, conversely,
source data with lesser inherent precision have
more uncertainty with regard to the true
elevation of a particular point. (See Figure 1.3.8
and Table 1.3.1; and Section 1.1 and Section 1.2
for additional details concerning the precision of
the source data used in the study area.)

The second source of uncertainty derives from
the estimated elevation of SHW relative to the
NGVD29 for any particular section of coastline
as derived from local tide gage data. The
elevation of SHW is relevant because the
elevations provided by the source data are
expressed relative to the NGVD29 datum, but
the estimation of inundation is expressed relative
to SHW (see Section 1.1 for a description of how
the elevations relative to SHW were derived).


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[84 UNCERTAINTY RANGES ASSOCIATED WITH EPA'S ESTIMATES ]

Aggregate Uncertainty

All NGVD29 elevations from the source data are
converted to elevations relative to SHW by:

Ejk = Engvdjk - SHWk (1)

where:

Ejk is the derived nominal elevation of point j
in region k relative to SHW
Engvdjk is the nominal elevation of point j in
region k relative to NGVD29, as provided in
the source data

SHWk is the estimated (NGVD29) elevation
of SHW for region k.

SHWk is not known with absolute certainty; thus
the precision of Ejk is a function of two sources
of uncertainty: (1) the magnitude of uncertainty
inherent in Engvd,jk and (2) the magnitude of
uncertainty in SHWk. In principle, the magnitude
of uncertainty in SHWk could vary by region k,
but in this study SHWk is defined as a constant
value of 0.5 feet. These two sources of
uncertainty were assumed to be statistically
independent; thus, the magnitude of total
uncertainty is estimated with the basic equation:

jk '



P' --l/Pmshw,k +Pngviik (^)

where:

Pmshw.k is the magnitude of uncertainty in
SHWk expressed as RMSE, defined as a
constant value of 0.5 feet

Pngvd.jk ^Cjk Or

Pngvd.jk is a specified the magnitude of
uncertainty in Engvd.jk expressed as RMSE
(feet)14

Pjk is the magnitude of total effective
uncertainty in Ejk (feet)

14For areas described by some types of source data, e.g.,
USGS topographic maps, Pngv4jk is defined as a certain
fraction of the contour intervals used in the base maps, but
for other types of source elevation data not based on
contour intervals, e.g., elevations derived from LIDAR
data, Pngvdjk is a constant (Table 1.3.1). For USGS maps,
P i ig\ ¦- i.j i kC.

Cjk is the magnitude of contour intervals
represented in the relevant source data for
point j,k15

A- is a scalar that varies by source data (e.g.,
0.5; see Table 1.3.1).

(1)

The basic definition of Pjk was not applied
universally to all points in region k. In some
subregions within region k, Pjkis associated with
points j,k, but in other subregions, particularly
regions of low elevation, Pjkis redefined by an ad
hoc function of Ejk that is described below.

Estimating Elevation Uncertainty

The magnitude of uncertainty about Ejk was
defined as Pjk at all relatively high elevations. In
such regions, upper and lower bounds on Ejk
were defined simply as:

Ejki = Ejk-Pjk (3)

Ejku = Ejk + Pjk (4)

where:

Ejk is the nominal elevation of point j,k 16
Ejki and Ejk.u represent the lower and upper
bounds on Ejk, respectively.

However, the simple formulations in Eqult&bns 3
and 4 were considered inadequate for providing
realistic bounds for Ejk in locations with low
elevation, where "low elevations" are defined to
be lower than selected reference elevations. For
estimating Ejku, a reference elevation was taken
to be E'jk , the elevation of "first contour," which

is Ejk corresponding toE„gvd,jk equal to the lowest
nonzero elevation contour in the source data for
region k. For estimating Ejk.i, an additional
reference elevation was taken to beE"jk, the

elevation of "second contour," which is Ejk
corresponding to Engvd.jk equal to the second-
lowest nonzero elevation contour in the source
data for region k.

"For source data not based on a contour interval, such as
SPOT and LIDAR, contour interval was derived from the
RMSE of the source data.

" Nominal elevations were determined from the source
data using interpolation methods described in Section 1.1.


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[ SECTION 1 .3 85 ]

The general uncertainty modeling procedure can
be succinctly described as two complex error
functions. One such function describes the error
in a positive direction, i.e., the amount by which
the "true" elevation, E*jk, could exceed the
nominal elevation Ejk. The other such function
describes the error in a negative direction, i.e.,
the amount by which the "true" elevation, E*jk,

E'jk =(Cjk -MSWHk)

P

]k,u

'jk

gE

jk

jk ¦

J'k

jk

E =E + P

Ljk,u Ljk jk,u

could lie below the nominal elevation Ejk. The
functions are asymmetrical because of the
assumption that the magnitude of errors in the
negative direction will tend to be relatively
dampened if Ejk is lower than E'jk or E"jk

(defined below; see Section 1.3.1 for the
justification of this assumption).

The error function for determining an upper
bound on Ejkis a set of line segments defined as:

(5)

(6)
(?)

IfE]kE]k

where:

SHW is the elevation of mean spring high water for point j,k
gis a constant (e.g., 0.25)

E'jk is the elevation (relative to SHW) of "first contour"

Pjk.u is the magnitude of error in a positive direction
Ejk,u is the upper bound on Ejk-
The error function for determining a lower bound on Ejkis a set of line segments defined by:
E"jk=(2Cjk-MSWHk)

P' =

r Jk

P/A-j -

P' F

r jk jk

P'

mshwr+(*E'Jky

EV-

jk

((E]k-Wlk)(?lk-V'lk))/ (E"lk-Wlk)

jk'' ' jk

jk;

jk

' jk '

jk

If v., >Qand\:... H' ; andY., .. Y.",

//ejA->ev

(8)

(9)

(10)

E jk j = max (0, (Ejk - Pjk j))	(11)

where:

P'jk is a measure of uncertainty analogous to Pjk

E"jk is Ejk corresponding to E"ngvdjk, the elevation of the second-lowest non-zero elevation

contour in the base map for region k

Pjkj is the magnitude of error in a negative direction

Ejk,i is the lower bound on Ejk-

The typical shape of the error functions defined by Equations 1 through 11 are depicted in Figure

1.3.8.


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[86 UNCERTAINTY RANGES ASSOCIATED WITH EPA'S ESTIMATES ]

(a)

Nominal Elevation (above MSHW)

(b)

Nominal Elevation (above MSHW)

(c)

0	E'jk	E"jk

Nominal Elevation (above MSHW)

Figure 1.3.8. Generalized Error Functions Used to Estimate Uncertainty Bounds on Elevation.

Panel (a) depicts magnitude of uncertainty in a positive direction; panel (b) depicts magnitude of
uncertainty in a negative direction; and panel (c) describes the net effect of the functions depicted in
panels (a) and (b), expressed as positive and negative uncertainty bounds relative to the nominal
elevation.


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[ SECTION 1 .3 87 ]

Estimating Ranges of Plausible
Elevation

Before the uncertainty analyses, acreages for a
particular region and protection scenario were
compiled into bins corresponding to elevations
above SHW 0.1-ft increments.17 For example, for
scenarios,

Ak.s.o.i = area between Ejk = 0 feet andEjk = 0.1
foot (hectares)

Ak.s.o.2= area between Ejk= 0.1 feet and Ejk=
0.2 foot (hectares), etc.

Thus, collectively the Ak.s values can be
considered as a density18 with each element
associated with a particular Ejk- Considering the
meaning of Ejk.i and Ejk.u, each Ak,s can be
associated with all three values: Ejk, Ejk.i, and
Ejk.u. By extension, each Ejk elevation can be
associated with three alternative values of Ak,s by
aligning with cases where Ejk = Ejk,i and Ejk =

Ejk,u. In this manner, two additional "densities"
are generated such that for each Ejk there are

three alternative corresponding Ak.s. The
alternative densities have little implicit meaning,
but converting each of the alternative densities to
cumulative distributions provides alternative
elevation profiles that are meaningful for
generating a range of estimates of total flooded
area under various amounts of sea level rise.

Procedural Notes

Data processing and calculations related to the
elevation uncertainty analyses were conducted
with S-Plus software (Professional Developer
version 7; Insightful Corporation, Seattle, WA).
In addition to quality control procedures used
during development of the S-Plus algorithms
used to solve for the uncertainty endpoints,
quality control procedures were conducted
independently from the S-Plus algorithms using
MS-Excel spreadsheets for selected test cases.

17The data used as the basis for the uncertainty analyses
were expressed with a resolution of 0.1 feet (see footnote
14), and the general processing of those data to develop
uncertainty limits were conducted with a resolution of 0.1
feet. Prior to comparisons with elevations of interest (e.g.,
a selected amount of sea level rise), the basic results with
0.1 foot resolution were further subdivided into 10 bins of
equal size to provide a quasi-resolution of 0.01 feet.

18Not strictly a probability density because the sum of all
Hk,s equal a total area in region k for scenarios, not one.


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[88 UNCERTAINTY RANGES ASSOCIATED WITH EPA'S ESTIMATES ]

Table 1.3.1. Features of distinct base map data sources related to estimation of elevation uncertainty


-------
[ SECTION 1 .3 89 ]

Table 1.3.1. Features of distinct base map data sources related to estimation of elevation uncertainty


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[90 UNCERTAINTY RANGES ASSOCIATED WITH EPA'S ESTIMATES ]

Table 1.3.1. Features of distinct base map data sources related to estimation of elevation uncertainty


-------
[ SECTION 1 .3 91 ]

Table 1.3.1. Features of distinct base map data sources related to estimation of elevation uncertainty


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[92 UNCERTAINTY RANGES ASSOCIATED WITH EPA'S ESTIMATES ]

Table 1.3.1. Features of distinct base map data sources related to estimation of elevation uncertainty


-------
[ SECTION 1 .3 93 ]

Table 1.3.1. Features of distinct base map data sources related to estimation of elevation uncertainty


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[94 UNCERTAINTY RANGES ASSOCIATED WITH EPA'S ESTIMATES ]

Table 1.3.1. Features of distinct base map data sources related to estimation of elevation uncertainty

NJ Perth Amboy	Middlesex	20 ft	20 0.5 0.25 304.8 4.07


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[ SECTION 1 .3 95 ]

Table 1.3.1. Features of distinct base map data sources related to estimation of elevation uncertainty

NY New London	Suffolk	10 ft	10 0.5 0.25 152.4 2.15


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[96 UNCERTAINTY RANGES ASSOCIATED WITH EPA'S ESTIMATES ]

Table 1.3.1. Features of distinct base map data sources related to estimation of elevation uncertainty

VA Chincoteague East	Accomack	5 ft	5	0.5	0.25	76.2	2.81
OeS

VA Chincoteague West	Accomack	5 ft	5	0.5	0.25	76.2	1.71

VA Cobb Island	Northampton	5 ft	5	0.5	0.25	76.2	2.84

VA Courtland	Southampton	5 ft	5	0.5	0.25	76.2	1.7


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[ SECTION 1 .3 97 ]

Table 1.3.1. Features of distinct base map data sources related to estimation of elevation uncertainty


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[98 UNCERTAINTY RANGES ASSOCIATED WITH EPA'S ESTIMATES ]

Table 1.3.1. Features of distinct base map data sources related to estimation of elevation uncertainty

VA King and Queen Court King and Queen 10 ft	10 0.5 0.25 152.4 2.98

House

VA Machodoc	Westmoreland	10 ft	10 0.5 0.25 152.4 1.61


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[ SECTION 1 .3 99 ]

Table 1.3.1. Features of distinct base map data sources related to estimation of elevation uncertainty

VA Rappahannock	Caroline	10 ft	10 0.5 0.25 152.4 2.56

Academy


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[ 100 UNCERTAINTY RANGES ASSOCIATED WITH EPA'S ESTIMATES ]

Table 1.3.1. Features of distinct base map data sources related to estimation of elevation uncertainty









Contour



RMS











interval

k

cm

SHW

State

Quadrangle

County

Source

(ft)

(base)3 g

(base)

(ft)b

VA Zuni	Isle of Wight	10 ft	10 0.5 0.25 152.4 1.76

a.	The values of k listed here are the "base" value of k that relates contour interval to RMS as RMS = k(base) H
contour interval. The procedures for conducting uncertainty analyses allow for universal rescaling of k. These
values were scaled by a factor of 0.5 in the analysis; i.e., we assume that error = 0.25 times the contour
interval in most quads.

b.	For these locations, the values of 1 for contour interval and 0 for SHW were provided to trick the algorithm
into calculating "contour error" as RMSE/2. This was necessary because of the format in which Jones and
Wang had saved the central estimate results for those areas with high precision data. The value of g doe not
matter because g had no effect above the contour interval, which is less than the 50 cm increment with
which our results are reported.

c.	For these locations, the values of 2 for contour interval and 0 for SHW were provided to trick the algorithm
into calculating "contour error" as RMSE/2. This was necessary because of the format in which Jones and
Wang had saved the central estimate results for those areas with high precision data.


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Section 1.3.3. Results Author: James G. Titus

The results from this section are displayed in
Appendices A, B, and C (along with regional
summaries). What we call ''low" and
"high "(elevation) as we explain oar approach in
this section are reversed in the tables, because
the high elevation means less vulnerability and a
lower area close to sea level, and vice versa.

We encourage the reader to examine these tables
and think about both the ratio of the high to the
low estimate and the vertical error implied by a
given line in the table. If the high estimate at 50
cm is greater than the low estimate for 100 cm,
then the vertical error is greater than 25 cm. If
the high estimate at 50 cm is greater than the low
estimate for 150 cm, then the vertical error is
greater than 50 cm.

If the ratio of high to low at 50 cm is great, that
may mean that the uncertainty is great; but it
may also mean that there is an inflection point
nearby. For example, if the data (e.g., LIDAR)
show several times as much land between 50 and
65 cm as between 0 and 50 cm, then even if the
error is only 15 cm, the ratio of high to low could
be very large.19 This happens in some areas with
LIDAR. As a result, if one considers only the
ratio of high to low, one might be surprised that
the areas with LIDAR do not always seem much
more precise than the areas that relied on USGS
5-ft contours. (A second reason that the LIDAR
does not always appear more precise than areas
with 5-ft contours is that the first contour interval
is only 2-3 feet in areas where spring high water
is 2-3 feet above NGVD29. Although the
subsequent contour intervals are greater, the
ratios of high to low get closer to 1 as elevations

19For example, if the LIDAR shows 10 ha between 0 and
50, and 100 ha between 50 and 65, if error is 15 cm, the
high estimate would be 110 ha, and the low estimate would
be less than 10. The ratio of high to low would this be
more than 11.

increase.) Nevertheless, variations in precision
are palpable when one looks at areas with a 10-
or 20-ft contour interval. See the Pennsylvania
tables in Appendix A, where Bucks County has
mostly 20-ft contours but Philadelphia has 2-ft
contours.

Overall, we estimate between 2,374 and 3,221
square kilometers of land within 50 cm above the
tides, and 3,351 to 3,940 square kilometers
within 1 meter above the tides in the middle
Atlantic (see Appendix C). Our input data and
assumptions are based on RMS error; but at the
state and regionwide level, much of the errors
should cancel. The true amount of land close to
sea level is very likely to fall within the ranges
we have estimated.

One final warning: The available output
provided by Jones and Wang (explained in
Section 1.2), which this effort used as input,
extended only to an elevation of 20 feet above
SHW. Therefore, we cannot literally apply our
formula for the high-elevation (low-area) case
for elevations above 20 feet minus "error." In
cases with a 20-ft contour interval, error is 5 feet;
so we cannot apply the low-area formula above
15 feet. The algorithm explained in Section 1.3.2
treats no data as zero, assuming in effect that
there is no land above 20-ft SHW. We
considered suppressing all calculations above 4.5
meters in such cases, but opted instead to
provide the results with an asterisk. That
approach seems more reasonable: In these cases,
assuming that there is no land above 20-ft SHW
is clearly an extreme lower bound. But we doubt
that it seriously distorts the statewide results.
Typically, a state has only a few quads with a 20-
ft contour interval—generally in areas that have
very little low land. So even if we had been able
to correctly apply our formula (i.e., if Jones and
Wang in Section 1.2 had interpolated above 20-ft
SHW) the calculated area would not be much


-------
[ 102 UNCERTAINTY RANGES ASSOCIATED WITH EPA'S ESTIMATES ]

greater than zero when considered at the
statewide level. Thus, instead of suppressing our
"low area" estimate, we provide an estimate that
is slightly lower than a rigorous application of
our approach.

References

Bureau of the Budget. 1947. National Map
Accuracy Standards. Government Printing
Office, Washington D.C. Available from:
http://rockyweb.cr.usgs.gov/nmpstds/nmas.html.
Accessed October 1, 2006.

Environmental Protection Agency. 1989. The
Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on
the United States. Report to Congress. EPA-230-
05-89-050. U.S. EPA, Washington, D.C.

Jones, R. 2007. Accuracy Assessment of EPA
Digital Elevation Model Results. Memorandum
and attached spreadsheets prepared for the U.S.
EPA under Work Assignment 409 of EPA
Contract #68-W-02-027. Distributed with the
elevation data.

Jones, R., J. Titus, and J. Wang. 2008. Metadata
for Elevations of Lands Close to Sea Level in the
Middle Atlantic Region of the United States.
Metadata accompanying Digital Elevation Model
data set. Distributed with the elevation data.

Park, R.A., M.S. Treehan, P.W. Mausel, and
R.C. Howe. 1989. The effects of sea level rise on
U.S. coastal wetlands. In The Potential Effects of
Global Climate Change on the United States.
EPA-230-05-89-050. U.S. EPA, Washington,

DC.

Titus, J.G., AND M.S. Greene. 1989. An
overview of the nationwide impacts of sea level
rise. In The Potential Effects of Global Climate
Change on the United States. Report to
Congress. Appendix B: Sea Level Rise. EPA-
230-05-89-052.U.S. EPA, Washington, DC.


-------
Appendix A

Low and High Estimates of the Area of Land Close to Sea Level, by State3

(square kilometers)

al_ow and high are an uncertainty range based on the contour interval and/or stated root mean square error (RMSE)
of the input elevation data. Calculations assume that half of the RMSE is random error and
half is systematic error. For a discussion of these calculations, see Section 1.3 of this report.


-------
[ 104 UNCERTAINTY RANGES ASSOCIATED WITH EPA'S ESTIMATES ]

Table A.1 Low and High Estimates of the Area of Land Close to Sea Level in New York

This value is probably too low because of a data limitation. See Section 1.3 of this report.

Note: A peer reviewer noticed that the draft maps showed Gardiners Island as "likely" even though the text said that it had been changed to "unlikely". The effect of that error was to
overstate the area of land below one meter where shore protection is likely, and understate the area where shore protection is unlikely, by 0.7, 0.9, and 1.1 square miles for the land
within 50, 100, and 200 cm above spring high water. We corrected the maps, but not the quantitative results in this report.


-------
[ SECTION 1.3 105 ]

Table A.2 Low and High Estimates of the Area of Land Close to Sea Level in New Jersey

Meters above Spring High Water
low high low high low high low high low high low high low high low high low high low high
0.5	1.0	1.5	2.0	2.5	3.0	3.5	4.0	4.5	5.0

probably too low because of a data limitation. See Section 1.3 of this report.


-------
[ 106 UNCERTAINTY RANGES ASSOCIATED WITH EPA'S ESTIMATES ]

Table A.2 Low and High Estimates of the Area of Land Close to Sea Level in New Jersey (continued)

This value is probably too low because of a data limitation. See Section 1.3 of this report.


-------
[ SECTION 1.3 107 ]

Table A.3 Low and High Estimates of the Area of Land Close to Sea Level in Pennsylvania

This value is probably too low because of a data limitation. See Section 1.3 of this report


-------
[ 108 UNCERTAINTY RANGES ASSOCIATED WITH EPA'S ESTIMATES ]

Table A.4 Low and High Estimates of the Area of Land Close to Sea Level in Delaware


-------
[ SECTION 1.3 109 ]

Table A.5 Low and High Estimates of the Area of Land Close to Sea Level in Maryland



















Meters

above Spring High Water

















low

high

low

high

low

high

low

high

low

high

low

high

low

high

low

high

low

high

low

high

County

0

.5

1

0

1

5

2

0

2.5



3.0



3.5



4.G



4.

5

5.

0















--Cumulative

(total) amount

of Dry Land below a given elevation-











Anne Arundel

1.7

7.2

6.7

15

12

26

20

39

32

50

44

59

54

68

63

77

72

86

81

94

Baltimore County

2.3

6.6

7.3

13

14

20

21

27

28

36

37

46

47

56

57

65

66

73

75

81

Baltimore City

0.2

2.1

0.9

3.9

1.7

5.7

2.7

7.5

4.2

9.7

5.7

12

7.4

14

9.6

17

12

19

14

21

Calvert

0.4

3.9

1.7

5.8

3.1

7.6

4.6

10

6.1

14

7.6

17

10.0

21

14

26

17

31

21

36

Caroline

0.7

3.2

2.2

6.1

4.1

9.2

6.9

13

9.9

16

13

20

16

23

19

27

23

30*

26

33*

Cecil

0.2

2.5

1.0

5.2

1.8

7.9

3.7

12

5.7

16

7.8

20

11

25

16

29

20

34

24

38

Charles

0.7

12

4.8

21

9.0

30

15

40

22

53

30

67

40

77

53

85

66

93

77

99

Dorchester

30

120

150

215

231

269

282

313

322

348

358

386

396

416

423

439

445

457

462

474

Harford

0.7

17

7.6

25

15

33

22

40

28

49

34

57

42

64

50

69

59

74

65

78

Howard

0

0.01

0.01

0.03

0.01

0.05

0.02

0.07

0.04

0.1

0.05

0.14

0.07

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.3

0.2

0.3

Kent

0.2

8.4

4.8

16

10

23

16

33

23

45

29

56

37

68

48

80

59

93

71

105

Prince George's

0.2

2.2

0.9

3.9

1.6

5.6

2.9

7.2

4.3

8.9

5.6

11

7.1

13

8.9

16

11

19

13

21

Queen Anne's

0.6

4.1

5.3

12

14

22

24

35

37

50

52

68

69

88

89

107

107

126

125

143

Somerset

17

58

70

101

113

153

168

193

198

210

215

233

240

260

268

289

297

318

327

345

St. Mary's

2.4

16

8.0

28

14

41

24

58

35

79

46

101

62

118

83

129

104

139

120

148

Talbot

2.2

7.8

11

24

30

54

64

99

110

139

149

175

184

210

218

239

245

260

266

279

Wicomico

5.0

15

18

29

32

43

47

58

62

72

76

86

90

101

105

115

119

129

133

142

Worcester

4.4

21

25

48

53

83

88

119

124

153

158

183

187

209

213

235

239

261

265

288

Statewide

69

307

326

570

560

832

812

1104

1053

1350

1267

1596

1500

1833

1737

2045

1960

2243*

2165

2425*

This value is probably too low because of a data limitation. See Section 1.3 of this report


-------
[ 110 UNCERTAINTY RANGES ASSOCIATED WITH EPA'S ESTIMATES ]

Table A.5 Low and High Estimates of the Area of Land Close to Sea Level in Maryland (continued)





low

high

low

high

low

high

low

high

low

high

low

high

low

high

low

high

low

high

low

high I

County



0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

Wetlands

Tidal

	Cumulative (total) amount of Nontidal Wetlands below a given elevation	

Anne Arundel

12

0.2

0.7

0.6

1.6

1.1

4.8

3.1

8.1

6.3

11

9.5

12

12

14

13

15

14

16

15

17

Baltimore County

10

0.1

0.3

0.3

0.7

0.7

1.0

1.0

1.3

1.3

1.5

1.5

1.7

1.7

1.8

1.8

2.0

2.0

2.2

2.2

2.3

Baltimore City

0.2

<0.01

0.03

0.01

0.04

0.02

0.05

0.03

0.1

0.04

0.1

0.05

0.1

0.06

0.1

0.06

0.1

0.07

0.1

0.08

0.1

Calvert

15

0.1

0.9

0.4

1.3

0.7

1.7

1.1

2.2

1.4

3.0

1.7

3.8

2.2

4.7

3.0

5.7

3.8

6.6

4.7

7.5

Caroline

14

0.3

1.4

0.7

2.6

1.3

4.0

2.5

5.3

3.5

6.4

4.4

7.5

5.3

8.6

6.2

9.8

7.1

11*

8.0

12*

Cecil

13

0.01

0.2

0.04

0.7

0.1

1.2

0.4

1.7

0.8

2.3

1.2

2.8

1.7

3.5

2.2

4.2

2.8

4.9

3.5

5.5

Charles

24

0.1

3.8

1.5

6.5

2.9

9.2

4.8

12

7.0

14

9.3

16

12

18

14

20

16

21

18

23

Dorchester

425

15

46

53

70

76

90

94

104

107

112

114

121

124

129

131

136

137

139

140

143

Harford

29

0.2

2.5

1.2

3.8

2.3

5.0

3.3

6.2

4.3

7.6

5.2

9.0

6.4

10

7.8

11

9.1

11

10

12

Howard

0

0

0.03

0.01

0.04

0.02

0.04

0.03

0.05

0.04

0.06

0.04

0.06

0.05

0.07

0.06

0.08

0.06

0.09

0.07

0.10

Kent

18

0.1

1.1

0.9

2.6

2.0

4.1

3.3

5.4

4.3

6.8

5.2

7.9

6.1

9.3

7.2

11

8.3

13

9.7

14

Prince George's

14

0.1

0.8

0.3

1.4

0.6

2.0

1.0

2.5

1.5

3.2

2.0

3.8

2.5

4.7

3.2

5.6

3.8

6.5

4.6

7.2

Queen Anne's

21

0.2

1.1

1.5

3.0

3.2

4.8

4.9

6.5

6.5

8.1

7.9

9.6

9.5

12

11

14

13

16

15

18

Somerset

265

6.6

16

17

21

23

31

35

40

41

43

45

52

54

60

62

69

71

78

81

90

St. Mary's

19

0.5

2.8

1.7

5.3

2.8

7.8

4.6

11

6.7

15

8.8

19

12

22

16

25

20

28

23

31

Talbot

26

0.1

0.3

0.5

1.0

1.3

2.1

2.5

4.2

4.8

6.2

6.8

8.5

9.1

12

13

15

16

17

18

20

Wicomico

67

5.4

9.9

11

13

16

22

24

29

30

35

37

44

47

54

56

60

62

66

67

70

Worcester

142

0.7

5.2

6.0

10

11

16

17

22

23

29

30

36

37

42

43

48

49

54

54

58

Statewide

1116

29

93

97

146

145

207

203

261

249

304

289

355

341

406

390

451

435

490*

474

531*





Cumulative (total) amount of land below a given elevation

Dry Land



69

307

326

570

560

832

812

1104

1053

1350

1267

1596

1500

1833

1737

2045

1960

2243*

2165

2425*

Nontidal Wetlands



29

93

97

146

145

207

203

261

249

304

289

355

341

406

390

451

435

490*

474

531*

All Land

1116

1214

1516

1539

1832

1820

2155

2130

2481

2418

2769

2672

3067

2957

3354

3243

3612

3510

3849*

3754

4071*

This value is probably too low because of a data limitation. See Section 1.3 of this report


-------
[ SECTION 1.3 111 ]

Table A.6 Low and High Estimates of the Area of Land Close to Sea Level in Washington, D.C.


-------
416

257

159

49

5

4

18

8.8

49

14

0.5

43

0.8

5.2

378

112

57

141

68

392

53

33

36

39

111

ES ASSOCIATED WITH EPA'S ESTIMATES ]

mates of the Area of Land Close to Sea Level in Virginia

low high low high low high
0.5	1.0	1.5

Meters above Spring High Water
low high low high low high low high
2.0	2.5	3.0	3.5

56 111

37 78

20
2.8

33
10

0.1	0.5

0.3	0.9

1.1	3.9

0.5	2

1.8	6.5

0.8	2.7

0.04	0.1

1.5	5.4

0.05	0.2

0.3	0.9

11	43

2.4	9.3

2.4	8.9

2.8	11

3.6
33

2

14
89

7.3

1.7	5.7

0.9	3.2

2	6.8

13	33

-Cumulative (total) amount of Dry Land below a given elevation-

93 159

65 115

29
6.3

44
15

0.3	0.7

0.6	1.3

2.5	5.9

1.2	3
4.1	9.9
1.7	4.2
0.1	0.2

3.3	8.1
0.1	0.3
0.6	1.3

27

5.7
5.5
6.9
8.5

66

14
13
17
21

66 139

4.6	11

3.7	8.6
2 4.8

4.4

26

11
50

137 204

98 149

39
9.7

55
20

0.5	1.3

0.9	1.7

3.8	7.6

1.9	3.9
6.4	14
2.7	5.4
0.1	0.2
5.2	11
0.2	0.3
0.9	1.8
42	92

9
8.7
11
14

21
18
24
28

108 190

7.1 15

5.5
3.1
7
41

12
8.4
14
67

180

131
49
13
0.6
1.2
5.2

2.6

8.7

3.6
0.2

7.1
0.2

1.2
58
12
12
15
19

149

9.7
7.5
4.2
10
55

243

172
71
25
1.9

2.1

9.2

4.7
20

6.8
0.3

16.7
0.4

2.3
141

37
25
44
35
230
22
15
13
19
76

221

160
61
17
0.8

1.5

6.6

3.3

11
4.6
0.2

9
0.3

1.5
74
16
15
19
24

186

12

9.6

5.4

13
67

279

192
87
29
2.6
2.5
11
5.5
26
8.1
0.3

22
0.5
2.8
190

53
32
64
42
268
28
19
18

23
84

258

180
78
21
1.4

1.8
8
4

15
5.7
0.3

12
0.3

1.9
100

24
20
27
29
220
17

13
9.6

16
75

315

211
104
34
3.3
2.9
12

6.3
31

9.4
0.4
27
0.5
3.3
239

69
38
84
48
307
34
22
22
27
93

294

200
94

25

2.1

2.2
9.5

4.8
20

6.9
0.3
17
0.4
2.4
147

39

26
46
36

258
22
16
14
20
84


-------
[ SECTION 1.3 113 ]

Table A.7 Low and High Estimates of the Area of Land Close to Sea Level in Virginia (continued)

low
C

high
1.5

low
1

high
.0

low high
1.5

low

high
2.0

low high
2.5

low high
3.0

low high
3.5

low high
4.0

low high
4.5

low high
5.0

Mathews

4.7

15

13

33

26

54

44

73

62

85

79

97

90

108

101

113

111

117

115

121

Hampton Roads

24

91

78

200

154

333

264

469

381

650

519

848

711

1045

907

1192

1089

1307

1215

1424

James City

0.1

3.8

2

7.2

4.7

11

7

14

9.4

18

12

22

15

26

19

30

23

34

27

39

York

1.4

6

5

13

9.9

21

16

28

23

33

28

37

33

42

38

45

42

48

44

51

Newport News

2.2

6.9

6

11

9.7

15

13

18

16

21

19

25

23

28

26

33

30

38

35

42

Poquoson

1.4

4.5

4

8.8

7.4

13

11

16

15

16

16

17

17

17

17

17

17

17

17

17

Hampton

1.9

5.9

5

18

13

32

25

45

38

60

51

74

65

88

80

93

90

98

95

102

Surry

0

1.4

1

2.7

1.7

4.1

2.7

5.3

3.6

6.2

4.6

7.1

5.5

8

6.4

9

7.2

9.9

8.1

11

Isle of Wight

0.2

3.4

2

6.2

4.2

9.1

6

12.8

8

17

10

22

14

26

18

31

22

35

27

42

Norfolk

1.9

5.8

5

17

13

30

24

42

35

67

52

91

77

115

101

120

118

124

122

128

Virginia Beach

9.3

33

30

69

55

117

94

163

138

219

185

273

241

327

295

368

347

393

378

418

Suffolk

0.7

4.3

3.1

7.1

5.4

10

7.5

15

10

23

13

31

21

39

28

50

37

60

47

73

Portsmouth

1.2

3.9

3.5

9.6

7.6

15

13

22

18

33

27

45

38

56

50

61

58

65

63

70

Chesapeake

3.5

12

11

31

22

57

45

87

69

137

100

205

162

272

229

337

298

385

353

430

Other Jurisdictions

0

9.9

5.7

19

12

29

19

40

26

54

32

67

44

80

56

93

68

106

81

122

Charles City

0

3.2

1.8

6.3

4

9.6

6.2

13

8.4

18

11

23

15

28

19

32

23

37

28

43

Chesterfield

0

1.3

0.8

2.6

1.7

3.9

2.5

4.8

3.4

5.5

4.3

6.2

5

7

5.7

7.7

6.3

8.4

7

8.9

Colonial Heights

0

0.04

0.02

0.1

0.05

0.1

0.07

0.12

0.09

0.14

0.12

0.15

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.15

0.19

0.16

0.24

Hanover

0

0.02

0.02

0.05

0.03

0.1

0.05

0.2

0.1

0.3

0.1

0.4

0.2

0.5

0.3

0.6

0.4

0.7

0.5

0.7

Henrico

0

0.8

0.5

1.5

1

2.3

1.5

2.8

2

3.2

2.5

3.7

2.9

4.1

3.3

4.6

3.8

5.1

4.2

6.3

Hopewell

0

0.4

0.2

0.8

0.5

1.1

0.7

1.3

1

1.4

1.2

1.6

1.4

1.7

1.5

1.8

1.6

1.9

1.7

2.2

New Kent

0

2.1

1.2

4.1

2.6

6.2

4

9.4

5.4

13

6.9

17

10

21

14

25

18

29

22

34

Petersburg

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

<0.01

0

0.01

<0.01

0.01

<0.01

0.01

0.01

0.02

0.01

0.02

0.01

0.03

Prince George

0

1.9

1.1

3.8

2.4

5.7

3.7

8.1

5

11

6.3

14

8.8

17

12

20

15

23

17

26

Williamsburg

0

0.05

0.03

0.1

0.06

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.3

0.2

0.3

0.2

0.4

0.3

0.4

0.3

0.5

0.4

0.6

Statewide

54

236

189

479

362

751

585

1029

816

1362

1060

1707

1368

2051

1708

2332

2028

2582

2283

2830


-------
[ 114 UNCERTAINTY RANGES ASSOCIATED WITH EPA'S ESTIMATES ]

Table A.7 Low and High Estimates of the Area of Land Close to Sea Level in Virginia (continued)



















Meters above Spring High Water















Jurisdiction



low

high

low

high

low

high

low

high

low

high

low

high

low

high

low

high

low

high

low

high





0.

5

1.

0

1.

5

2.

0

2.

5

3.

0

3.

5

4.

0

4.

5

5.

0



Tidal

	Cumulative (total) amount of Nontidal Wetlands below a given elevation	

Eastern Shore

946

7

22

20

48

39

76

63

101

87

114

107

126

119

137

131

146

141

153

149

161

Accomack

484

7

21

19

45

36

70

58

92

80

104

98

114

108

124

119

132

128

138

134

145

Northampton

462

0.4

1.2

1

3.4

2.5

5.9

4.7

8.1

7

9.7

8.8

11

10

13

12

14

14

15

15

16

Northern Virginia

17

0

1

0

2

1

3

2

3

2

4

3

4

3

5

4

5

4

6

5

6

Stafford

6.8

0

0.5

0.3

1

0.6

1.5

1

1.9

1.3

2.3

1.7

2.6

2

2.9

2.3

3.3

2.6

3.6

3

3.9

Alexandria

0.2

0

0.03

0.02

0.07

0.04

0.1

0.06

0.11

0.09

0.11

0.11

0.11

0.11

0.11

0.11

0.11

0.11

0.11

0.11

0.12

Fairfax

4.9

0

0.2

0.1

0.4

0.2

0.6

0.4

0.7

0.5

0.8

0.6

0.9

0.7

1.1

0.9

1.2

1

1.3

1.1

1.4

Prince William

5.1

0

0.2

0.1

0.3

0.2

0.5

0.3

0.6

0.4

0.6

0.5

0.7

0.6

0.8

0.7

0.8

0.7

0.9

0.8

0.9

Rappahannock Area

20

0

0.6

0.3

1.2

0.7

1.7

1.1

2.4

1.5

3

1.9

3.6

2.5

4.2

3.1

4.9

3.7

5.5

4.3

6.2

Fredericksburg

0

0

<0.01

<0.01

0.01

<0.01

0.01

<0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

King George

13

0

0.5

0.3

1

0.6

1.5

1

2

1.3

2.4

1.7

2.8

2.1

3.3

2.5

3.7

2.9

4.1

3.3

4.6

Spotsylvania

0.1

0

0.02

0.01

0.03

0.02

0.05

0.03

0.06

0.04

0.06

0.05

0.07

0.06

0.08

0.06

0.08

0.07

0.09

0.08

0.12

Caroline

6.3

0

0.1

0.03

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.3

0.2

0.5

0.2

0.7

0.3

0.9

0.5

1.1

0.7

1.3

0.9

1.5

Northern Neck

57

0

2.5

1.2

4.8

2.9

7.3

4.7

9.8

6.4

14

8.1

18

10

22

14

26

18

30

22

34

Westmoreland

14

0

0.5

0.3

1

0.6

1.5

1

2.2

1.3

3.9

1.7

5.6

2.5

7.2

4.1

8.9

5.7

10.6

7.3

12

Richmond

22

0

0.9

0.4

1.7

1

2.5

1.6

3.3

2.2

3.9

2.8

4.5

3.4

5.1

4

5.7

4.5

6.3

5.1

6.9

Northumberland

11

0

0.5

0.3

1.1

0.6

1.6

1

2.2

1.4

3.7

1.8

5.1

2.4

6.6

3.8

8

5.2

9.6

6.6

11

Lancaster

9.8

<0.01

0.5

0.3

1.1

0.7

1.6

1.1

2.1

1.4

2.5

1.8

2.8

2.2

3.2

2.5

3.5

2.8

3.8

3.2

4.2

Middle Peninsula

165

2.6

12

9.5

26

19

40

31

54

44

66

55

78

67

90

79

98

90

106

98

113

Essex

28

0

0.8

0.4

1.5

0.9

2.3

1.5

2.9

2

3.4

2.5

3.9

3

4.4

3.5

4.8

3.9

5.3

4.4

5.9

King and Queen

22

0

0.9

0.5

1.7

1.1

2.5

1.6

3.1

2.2

3.5

2.8

4

3.2

4.4

3.6

4.8

4

5.3

4.4

5.8

King Wlliam

36

0

0.4

0.2

0.7

0.5

1.1

0.7

1.4

0.9

1.7

1.2

2

1.5

2.3

1.8

2.6

2

2.9

2.3

3.3

Middlesex

9.7

<0.01

0.7

0.4

1.4

0.8

2.1

1.4

2.8

1.9

3.1

2.4

3.5

2.8

3.8

3.2

4.1

3.5

4.5

3.8

4.8

Gloucester

44

1.4

5.5

4.5

12

9.1

19

15

25

20

28

25

31

27

34

30

36

33

37

34

38


-------
[ SECTION

1.3 115 ]

Table A.7 Low and High Estimates of the Area of Land Close to Sea Level in Virginia (continued)

















Meters above Spring High Water

















Jurisdiction



low

high

low

high

low

high

low

high

low

high

low

high

low

high

low

high

low

high

low

high





0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

Mathews

27

1.2

3.8

3.5

8.6

6.7

14

11

19

16

26

22

34

29

41

37

46

44

51

48

55

Hampton Roads

329

12

42

38

74

64

96

84

127

104

167

127

205

164

245

202

285

242

326

279

391

James City

33

<0.01

0.8

0.4

1.5

0.9

2.2

1.4

2.8

1.9

3.3

2.5

3.7

2.9

4.2

3.3

4.6

3.8

5.1

4.2

5.6

York

17

0.19

0.9

0.7

2.7

1.9

4.9

3.7

6.7

5.6

7.4

6.9

8

7.6

8.7

8.2

9.1

8.8

9.5

9.2

9.9

Newport News

15

0.1

0.3

0.3

0.7

0.5

1

0.9

1.3

1.2

1.4

1.35

1.42

1.4

1.5

1.4

1.5

1.5

1.6

1.6

1.7

Poquoson

24

0.02

0.1

0.1

0.4

0.3

0.8

0.6

1.1

0.9

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

Hampton

14

0.06

0.2

0.2

0.4

0.3

0.6

0.5

0.9

0.7

1.5

1.1

2.2

1.8

2.9

2.5

4

3.3

5.1

4.4

6.2

Surry

11

0

0.6

0.3

1.3

0.8

1.9

1.2

2.4

1.7

2.5

2.1

2.7

2.4

2.9

2.6

3

2.7

3.2

2.9

3.4

Isle of Wight

29

<0.01

0.3

0.2

0.6

0.4

0.9

0.6

1.4

0.8

2.2

1

3.1

1.5

4

2.4

4.8

3.2

5.7

4

7.3

Norfolk

4.7

0.1

0.3

0.2

0.5

0.4

0.8

0.7

1.1

0.9

1.3

1.1

1.5

1.3

1.7

1.5

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

Virginia Beach

112

4.2

14

13

25

22

33

29

41

37

46

43

50

48

53

51

56

54

57

56

59

Suffolk

26

0.03

0.2

0.1

0.3

0.2

0.4

0.3

0.8

0.4

1.3

0.5

1.8

1

2.3

1.4

3.1

2.1

6.8

2.9

33

Portsmouth

3.7

2.4

7.7

6.8

8.9

8.9

9.2

9.1

9.5

9.3

9.9

9.6

10

10

11

10

11

10.7

11

10.9

11

Chesapeake

40

4.5

17

15

32

28

40

36

58

44

89

56

120

86

152

116

186

149

217

180

251

Other Jurisdictions

85

0

5.5

3.2

11

6.9

16

10

20

14

22

18

24

20

26

22

28

24

30

26

33

Charles City

22

0

1.9

1.1

3.7

2.4

5.6

3.6

6.8

4.9

7.4

6.2

8

6.9

8.6

7.5

9.2

8.1

9.8

8.6

11

Chesterfield

11

0

0.4

0.2

0.7

0.4

1.1

0.7

1.2

0.9

1.2

1.1

1.2

1.17

1.24

1.2

1.3

1.2

1.3

1.2

1.3

Henrico

4.2

0

0.04

0.02

0.08

0.05

0.12

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.2

0.3

0.2

0.4

0.3

0.4

Hopewell

0.7

0

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.3

0.2

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.3

0.4

0.3

0.4

0.36

0.4

0.37

0.41

0.38

0.42

New Kent

34

0

2.3

1.3

4.5

2.9

6.8

4.4

8.1

6

8.7

7.6

9.3

8.2

9.8

8.8

10.4

9.3

11

9.9

12

Prince George

11

0

0.8

0.5

1.5

1

2.3

1.5

3.1

2

3.9

2.6

4.7

3.3

5.5

4

6.3

4.8

7.1

5.5

7.5

Williamsburg

0.4

0

0.02

0.01

0.03

0.02

0.05

0.03

0.06

0.04

0.07

0.05

0.08

0.06

0.1

0.07

0.11

0.09

0.12

0.1

0.14

Statewide

1619

21

86

72

167

134

240

197

317

260

389

320

459

387

529

455

594

523

657

583

745



Cumulative (total) amount of land below a given elevation

Dry Land



54

236

189

479

362

751

585

1029

816

1362

1060

1707

1368 2051

1708

2332

2028

2582

2283

2830

Nontidal Wetlands



21

86

72

167

134

240

197

317

260

389

320

459

387

529

455

594

523

657

583

745

All Land

1619

1694

1941

1881

2265

2115

2611

2401

2965

2694

3370

2999

3785

3374 4199

3782

4545

4170

4858

4486

5193


-------
744

65

16

149

336

496

188

1.9

267

326

155

1.5

0.03

130

0.02

0.06

55

707

41

2.8

38

90

8.0

166

325

460

149

432

65

0.9

380

556

6349

SOCIATED WITH EPA'S ESTIMATES ]

the Area of Land Close to Sea Level in North Carolina

Meters above Spring High Water
' high low high low high
2.0	2.5	3.0

-Cumulative (total) amount of dry land

109
4.7
0
24
26
127

6.5
0.02

20
50
71
<0.01
0

11
0
0

7.4
433
3.0
0

2.6
15
0.2
35
64
40

12
12
2.4

0

269
22
1368

156
6.8
<0.01

31
46

179
9.2
0.04

32
71
86

<0.01
0

16
0
0

11
482
4.0
0

5.6
20
0.3
43
95
65

17

18

3.7
0

321
38
1757

177
8.2
<0.01

36
59

220

11
0.05

37
87
91

<0.01
0
17
0
0

12
496
4.4

0
7.0
22
0.3
46
116
83
19
24
4.7
0
331
49
1957

235

10
0.01

43
100
287
15
0.1

54
119
102

<0.01
0
22
0
0

17
533
5.6
0

11
28
0.4

55
150
112

25
39
6.5
0

351
68
2388

257

12
0.02

48
115
326
17
0.1
60
143
106
<0.01
0
22
0
0
17
548
6.1
0

13
30
0.4
58

170
131
28
52
7.8
0

358
81
2609

317
15
0.06
55
147
379
22
0.2

78
178
117
0.01

<0.01
27
0
0
21
586
7.7
0.01
18

35
0.8
68

194
161

36

79
10

0

369
106
3030

341
17
0.1
60
157
402

27
0.3
85

201
121
0.01
<0.01

28
0
0

22
600
8.4
0.02
19
37
0.9
71
209
178
40
97
12
0
371
128
3232

401
20
0.2
68
189
421
35
0.4
104
234
131
0.02
<0.01
35
0
0
26
632
11
0.05
23
43
1.5
81
230
202
51
124
15
0.02
374
165
3615

422
22
0.2
74
201
427
42
0.5
111
252
133
0.03
<0.01
36
0
0
26
641
11
0.06
24
45
1.6
85
243
221
55
145
17
0.03
375
192
3803

below a
482

26
0.4
83

232
437
55
0.6
132
273
140
0.07
<0.01
50
<0.01
0
31
660
14
0.1

27
52
2.6
96

263
259
69
189
21
0.06
378
238
4208

given elevation
505 576

28
0.5
89
241
443
65
0.7
140
285
143
0.1

32
1.1
98
256
452
85
0.8
165
300
147
0.2

<0.01 <0.01
52 69
<0.01 <0.01

0
31
666
15
0.2
28
55
2.8
100
274
290
74
227
24
0.07
378
272
4429

0
36
682
19
0.3
30
61
3.8
111
289
350
89
296
30
0.1
379
340
4899

600
35
1.5
105
262
459
100
0.9
175
306
148
0.2
<0.01
72
<0.01
0
37
686
20
0.4
30
64
4.0
116
296
382
94
335
34
0.15
380
387
5131


-------
[ SECTION 1.3 117 ]

Table A.8 Low and High Estimates of the Area of Land Close to Sea Level in North Carolina (continued)

Meters above Spring High Water

County	|ow high low high low high low high low high low high low high low high low high low high

0.5	1.0	1.5	2.0	2.5	3.0	3.5	4.0	4.5	5.0

Wetlands

Tidal









—

	Cumulative (total) amount of Nontidal Wetlands below

a given

elevation-











Beaufort

35

65

95

105

131

139

162

171

202

215

244

252

272

278

290

294

306

310

320

323

330

Bertie

0.3

110

123

127

132

136

142

147

153

159

167

171

177

181

186

191

200

207

219

225

234

Bladen

0

<0.01

0.1

0.2

0.6

0.9

1.8

2.1

3.3

4.1

6.3

7.3

10

11

15

16

21

23

29

31

36

Brunswick

109

38

44

47

52

55

58

61

65

67

71

73

77

79

82

85

88

90

93

95

98

Camden

7.1

137

146

149

155

157

165

168

175

177

184

187

194

197

201

203

210

214

233

243

258

Carteret

334

34

67

87

117

136

164

180

202

216

231

237

243

247

254

258

267

273

281

286

293

Chowan

0

29

32

34

37

38

40

42

44

46

49

51

56

59

64

70

79

84

91

96

104

Columbus

0

0.2

0.5

0.8

1.3

1.9

2.7

3.2

3.9

4.4

5.1

5.5

6.1

6.4

6.7

7

7.3

7.5

8.0

8.9

11

Craven

12

59

74

80

94

100

115

121

137

142

154

159

170

173

184

188

198

202

213

217

227

Currituck

125

129

144

150

159

164

172

178

184

188

194

196

199

201

203

204

206

209

215

219

221

Dare

168

376

525

553

604

619

651

659

664

664

665

666

666

666

666

666

666

666

666

666

666

Duplin

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0.01

0.03

0.1

0.2

0.5

0.7

1.4

1.8

2.9

3.4

4.7

5.3

6.7

Edgecombe

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

<0.01

<0.01

<0.01

<0.01

0.01

0.01

0.03

0.05

0.09

Gates

0

78

89

89

93

94

98

99

102

103

107

108

114

115

121

122

126

126

129

129

132


-------
0.2

1.6

81

689

33

17

150

60

14

72

232

124

239

180

70

6.8

623

197

5405

6349

5405

13026

ASSOCIATED WITH EPA'S ESTIMATES ]

ie Area of Land Close to Sea Level in North Carolina (continued)

Meters above Spring High Water
low high low high low high low high low high low

0
0
54
488
11
0
73
36
2.0
31
73
62
113
47
27
0

523
86
3048

0
0
58
538
13
0.07
88
39
2.6
35
81
68
128
52
30
0

554
92
3354

0
0
58
549
14
0.13
93
40
2.7
36
86
71
132
55
32
0

559
96
3465

0
0
61
571
16
0.38
103
42
3.5
40
97
75
145
61
35
0

569
101
3694

0
0
62
578
16
0.5
106
43
3.7
41
106
79
150
66
36

0
0
65
592
18
1.1
114
45
5.9
45
123
84
161
74
39

0	<0.01

571	579

106	112

3794	3992

0
0
66
598
19
1.5

117
46
6.0
46

131
88
165
79
41
0.02
582

118

0
0
69
614
21
2.8
124

48
7.3

49
142

93
175
86
44
0.4
591
128

0 <0.01

0
69
619
21
3.3
126
49
7.6
51
148
96
179
90
46
0.6
593
134
4347

0
71
634
23
4.9
130
51
9.6
54
161
102
189
98
49
1.4
601
145
4509

1368 1757

3048 3354
5687 6384

1957 2388

3465 3694
6694 7354

4087 4269

Cumulative (total) amount of land below
2609 3030 3232 3615 3803 4208

3794 3992
7676 8293

4087 4269
8591 9157

4347 4509
9422 9989

<0.01
0
71
638
24
5.6
132
52
9.9
55
171
106
192
103
51
1.6
606
152
4583
a given
4429

0.01
0
74
653
26
7.6
136

53
11
59

186
113
202
113

54
2.3
614
162

4741
elevation
4899 5131

0.01
0
74
660
26
8.4
137
54
11
60
192
116
206
124
57
2.6
616
168
4818

4583 4741
10284 10912

0.02
<0.01
77
672
28

11
140

56

12
64

201
119
216
137
60
3.6
620
175
4969

5529

4818 4969
11221 11770


-------
Appendix B

Low and High Estimates for the Area of Dry and Wet Land Close to Sea Level,

by Subregion3 (square kilometers)

a The low and high estimates are based on the on the contour interval and/or stated root mean square error (RMSE) of the data used to calculate
elevations and an assumed standard error of 30 cm in the estimation of spring high water. For details, see main text of this Section 1.3.


-------
[ 120 UNCERTAINTY RANGES ASSOCIATED WITH EPA'S ESTIMATES ]

Table B.1 Low and High Estimates for the Area of Dry and Wet Land Close to Sea Level - Long Island Sound, New York











Elevations above spring high water







Locality



50 cm

1 meter

2 meters

3 meters

5 meters





Low

High

Low

High

Low

High

Low

High

Low

High



Cumulative

total) amount of dry land below a given elevation

Westchester



0.2

1.5

1.1

3.0

2.8

5.8

5.1

8.6

10.0

12.4

Bronx



0.4

2.6

1.8

5.1

4.8

9.8

8.7

14.6

16.9

19.6

Queens



6.2

17.0

14.6

28.1

31.7

48.6

50.7

66.6

76.5

80.8

Brooklyn



3.1

9.1

8.0

15.6

18.8

30.5

34.0

47.4

58.9

62.8

Nassau



2.2

19.2

12.9

44.5

50.9

85.4

85.4

104.1

119.3

132.1

Suffolk



13.7

51.5

43.1

96.8

114.9

181.3

188.6

251.3

318.8

371.4

Total



25.8

100.9

81.4

193.1

223.9

361.4

372.4

492.6

600.4

679.1



Tidal

Cumulative (total) amount of wetlands below a given elevation

Westchester

1.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

Bronx

1.2

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

Queens

11.9

0.0

0.2

0.1

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.7

Brooklyn

10.1

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.2

Nassau

43.7

0.1

0.4

0.3

0.7

0.8

1.5

1.4

2.1

2.6

3.2

Suffolk

72.1

1.5

5.7

4.9

9.8

10.8

15.2

15.1

18.3

20.8

23.8

Total

140.0

1.7

6.4

5.4

11.0

12.1

17.4

17.2

21.3

24.3

28.1

Dry and nontidal wetland



27

107

87

204

236

379

390

514

625

707

All land

140

167

247

227

344

376

519

530

654

765

847


-------
[ SECTION 1.3 121 ]

Table B.2 Low and High Estimates for the Area of Dry and Wet Land Close to Sea Level in New York Harbor













Elevations above spring high water













50 cm

1 meter

2 meters

3 meters

5 meters







Low

High

Low

High

Low

High

Low

High

Low

High

Locality

State

Cumulative

total) amount of dry land below a given elevation

Monmouth

NJ



2.0

5.4

5.9

10.5

15.8

18.7

22.4

24.7

31.2

32.5

Middlesex

NJ



0.4

8.8

4.3

17.4

14.7

31.2

25.4

43.5

45.6

62.0

Somerset

NJ



0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.2

Union

NJ



0.4

6.9

4.2

13.7

12.6

22.7

20.2

29.3

31.7

40.9

Hudson

NJ



0.6

16.2

10.4

32.2

30.6

49.0

46.4

56.9

60.4

67.5

Essex

NJ



0.4

6.1

3.9

12.0

11.3

19.6

17.8

25.3

27.8

32.2

Bergen

NJ



0.9

15.6

10.2

31.0

29.4

44.2

42.5

49.0

51.1

58.2

Passaic

NJ



0.0

0.2

0.1

0.3

0.3

0.7

0.6

1.1

1.3

1.9

Ellis Island

NJ



0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Staten Island

NY



0.3

7.8

5.1

15.5

14.9

24.9

23.3

30.8

33.9

39.0

Brooklyn

NY



0.0

0.8

0.5

1.6

1.6

3.1

2.7

4.5

5.3

6.4

Manhattan

NY



0.0

2.2

1.4

4.3

4.2

8.3

7.2

12.1

14.1

17.5

Bronx

NY



0.0

0.6

0.4

1.2

1.2

2.7

2.2

4.4

5.3

6.9

Westchester

NY



0.0

1.3

0.7

2.6

2.3

4.7

4.1

6.1

6.4

8.3

Total



5.1

71.9

47.1

142.6

138.9

230.0

214.9

288.0

314.1

373.7





Tidal

Cumulative (total) amount of wetlands below a given elevation

Monmouth

NJ

7.7

0.1

0.3

0.4

0.6

0.8

0.9

1.1

1.2

1.7

1.8

Middlesex

NJ

21.7

0.1

1.2

0.7

2.3

2.1

3.9

3.5

5.3

5.7

7.8

Union

NJ

2.3

0.0

0.2

0.1

0.3

0.3

0.5

0.4

0.6

0.6

0.8

Hudson

NJ

12.0

0.0

0.2

0.1

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.5

0.5

0.5

Essex

NJ

0.3

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Bergen

NJ

15.0

0.0

0.6

0.4

1.2

1.1

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.6

2.1

Passaic

NJ

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

Staten Island

NY

4.0

0.0

0.5

0.3

0.9

0.9

1.4

1.3

1.6

1.7

1.9

Bronx

NY

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

Westchester

NY

0.7

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Rockland

NY

2.3

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

Orange

NY

0.2

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Putnam

NY

1.3

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Dutchess

NY

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Total

67.6

0.2

3.0

2.0

5.8

5.6

9.0

8.6

11.1

12.2

15.5

Dry and nontidal wetland



5

75

49

148

145

239

223

299

326

389

| All land

68

73

142

117

216

212

307

291

367

394

457


-------
[ 122 UNCERTAINTY RANGES ASSOCIATED WITH EPA'S ESTIMATES ]

Table B.3 Low and High Estimates for the Area of Dry and Wet Land Close to Sea Level in New Jersey Shore











Elevations above spring high water:







County



50 cm

1 meter

2 meters

3 meters

5 meters





Low

High

Low

High

Low

High

Low

High

Low

High



Cumulative (total) amount of Dry Land below a given elevation

Cape May



7.6

21.8

23.8

42.0

56.1

73.5

78.4

102.2

124.2

144.1

Atlantic



4.0

13.5

14.0

29.0

40.8

53.9

57.3

71.0

88.5

105.8

Burlington



0.0

2.1

1.3

4.1

4.0

8.9

7.0

15.1

18.4

27.1

Ocean



4.6

18.7

21.8

44.0

67.3

80.6

93.2

106.8

136.6

149.1

Monmouth



2.1

4.9

5.5

9.4

15.3

19.9

26.4

31.8

50.4

54.9

Total



18.3

61.1

66.5

128.5

183.5

236.9

262.3

326.9

418.1

481.0



Tidal





Cumulative (total) amount of wetlands below a given elevation



Cape May

153.2

2.9

12.0

10.2

20.4

22.2

33.1

32.2

42.7

47.6

55.2

Atlantic

204.0

4.8

17.9

14.7

29.2

31.9

50.1

48.3

68.2

82.0

102.9

Burlington

37.3

0.2

9.7

6.2

19.1

18.7

32.7

30.0

41.3

45.8

57.2

Ocean

124.8

2.3

11.6

10.0

21.7

25.8

38.3

39.0

49.4

56.5

65.8

Monmouth

4.4

0.5

0.9

1.0

1.4

1.9

2.3

2.9

3.2

4.8

5.1

Total

523.6

10.7

52.1

42.1

91.9

100.5

156.5

152.4

204.9

236.5

286.3

Dry and nontidal wetland



29

113

109

220

284

393

415

532

655

767

All land

524

553

637

632

744

808

917

938

1055

1178

1291


-------
[ SECTION 1.3 123 ]

Table B.4 Low and High Estimates for the Area of Dry and Wet Land Close to Sea Level in Delaware Estuary













Elevations above spring high water:













50 cm

1 meter

2 meters

3 meters

5 meters







Low

High

Low

High

Low

High

Low

High

Low

High

Locality

State

Cumulative (total) amount of dry land below a given elevation

Sussex

DE



6.4

18.2

15.8

30.8

37.3

55.2

60.0

78.6

103.3

119.7

Kent

DE



8.8

24.8

21.9

40.6

47.9

77.6

86.1

119.2

177.8

209.9

New Castle

DE



7.1

19.0

16.8

29.9

34.4

52.2

54.2

75.0

99.0

119.0

Delaware

PA



0.4

6.1

4.0

12.1

11.5

18.0

17.2

20.7

22.2

25.9

Philadelphia3

PA



3.6

6.1

6.8

12.4

20.0

24.8

31.6

36.8

51.5

54.8

Bucks

PA



0.0

4.4

0.2

8.5

5.3

18.0

11.9

27.4

25.3

42.1

Mercer

NJ



0.0

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.4

0.3

0.4

Burlington

NJ



0.1

4.3

0.4

8.4

5.3

16.4

11.0

24.5

22.5

42.2

Camden

NJ



0.0

3.8

0.1

7.3

4.3

14.8

9.5

22.4

20.4

34.5

Gloucester

NJ



0.2

9.2

6.1

18.4

17.7

33.3

29.6

46.5

53.5

69.3

Salem

NJ



5.9

26.9

21.3

48.7

53.8

84.4

83.9

114.0

135.5

160.3

Cumberland

NJ



3.0

15.8

12.1

28.9

30.3

53.2

49.5

76.9

90.8

114.3

Cape May

NJ



0.4

3.5

2.5

7.5

8.6

19.9

20.9

36.9

55.5

68.0

Total



35.9

142.0

108.0

253.7

276.5

468.0

465.7

679.2

857.7

1060.4





Tidal





Cumulative (total) amount of wetlands below a given elevation



Sussex

DE

67.4

2.1

4.8

4.6

6.2

6.8

8.6

9.0

10.6

12.3

13.3

Kent

DE

168.7

4.9

11.4

10.4

16.6

19.0

24.6

25.9

30.9

38.8

43.5

New Castle

DE

73.5

1.8

3.8

3.5

4.8

5.1

6.7

6.7

8.4

9.7

11.1

Delaware

PA

3.6

0.1

0.8

0.6

1.7

1.6

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.3

2.3

Philadelphia

PA

0.6

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.7

1.9

1.9

Bucks

PA

1.9

0.0

0.9

0.1

1.9

1.2

4.1

2.9

6.3

6.2

8.2

Mercer

NJ

1.8

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Burlington

NJ

5.4

0.0

0.6

0.0

1.2

0.7

2.3

1.5

3.4

3.1

5.8

Camden

NJ

1.5

0.0

0.3

0.1

0.7

0.5

1.3

0.9

1.9

1.8

2.7

Gloucester

NJ

18.0

0.2

8.8

5.9

17.4

16.8

25.9

25.0

28.8

30.4

33.5

Salem

NJ

110.1

9.6

25.1

22.3

35.8

38.2

49.0

48.9

55.4

60.3

67.6

Cumberland

NJ

212.6

4.7

23.6

18.1

42.1

43.6

65.5

63.5

80.6

89.8

103.2

Cape May

NJ

48.3

4.3

14.7

12.2

25.1

28.2

40.3

41.5

51.2

58.6

63.7

Total

713.5

28.3

95.5

78.5

154.2

163.0

231.8

229.7

281.6

315.1

356.8

Dry and nontidal wetland



64

237

187

408

440

700

695

961

1173

1417

All land

713

778

951

900

1121

1153

1413

1409

1674

1886

2131

a This number includes Philadelphia's 2.4 square kilometers of dry land below spring high water, of which 0.87, 0.26, 0.054, and 0.005 are at least 0.5, 1, 2, and 3
meters below spring high water, respectively. Most of this land is near Philadelphia International Airport.


-------
[ 124 UNCERTAINTY RANGES ASSOCIATED WITH EPA'S ESTIMATES ]

Table B.5 Low and High Estimates for the Area of Dry and Wet Land Close to Sea Level in DelMarVa Atlantic Coast













Elevations above spring high water:













50 cm

1 meter

2 meters

3 meters

5 meters







Low

High

Low

High

Low

High

Low

High

Low

High

Locality

State

Cumulative (total) amount of Dry Land below a given elevation

Northampton

VA



5.1

14.5

13.0

16.8

17.9

20.6

21.4

24.6

30.5

35.0

Accomack

VA



7.5

22.6

20.1

37.7

44.5

61.7

65.8

81.2

103.7

118.9

Worcester

MD



3.7

18.6

21.7

42.4

77.5

102.8

134.0

154.6

219.1

234.6

Sussex

DE



11.1

32.4

27.6

53.5

64.5

94.9

104.2

139.5

196.5

234.2

Total





27.4

88.1

82.5

150.3

204.4

280.0

325.4

399.9

549.9

622.7





Tidal





Cumulative (total) amount of wetlands below a given elevation



Northampton

VA

436.4

0.3

0.8

0.7

2.1

2.8

4.4

4.6

5.2

5.8

6.1

Accomack

VA

327.3

1.3

4.1

3.5

10.4

13.5

20.7

21.9

26.2

31.2

33.7

Worcester

MD

118.5

0.4

4.3

5.0

8.8

14.1

18.1

23.4

27.0

36.0

37.6

Sussex

DE

41.0

1.7

4.9

4.2

7.5

8.8

12.2

12.9

15.7

18.9

20.7

Total

923.3a

3.7

14.1

13.4

28.7

39.2

55.4

62.7

74.1

91.9

98.1

Dry and Nontidal wetland



31

102

96

179

244

335

388

474

642

721

All Land

923

954

1025

1019

1102

1167

1259

1311

1397

1565

1644

a Includes 375 square kilometers of tidal mudflats in Northampton and Accomack counties.


-------
[ SECTION 1.3 125 ]

Table B.6 Low and High Estimates for the Area of Dry and Wet Land Close to Sea Level in Hampton Roads, Virginia











Elevations above spring high water







Locality



50 cm

1 meter

2 meters

3 meters

5 meters





Low

High

Low

High

Low

High

Low

High

Low

High



Cumulative (total) amount of Dry Land below a given elevation

Virginia Beach



9.3

33.0

30.3

68.7

93.6

163.2

184.7

272.9

378.1

418.2

Chesapeake



3.5

11.9

10.8

30.6

44.6

86.6

100.4

204.5

353.0

429.7

Norfolk



1.9

5.8

5.2

17.1

24.0

42.4

52.4

91.2

121.7

128.2

Portsmouth



1.2

3.9

3.5

9.6

12.8

22.0

26.7

45.0

62.6

69.9

Suffolk



0.7

4.3

3.1

7.1

7.5

15.2

13.0

31.0

47.3

73.3

Isle of Wight



0.2

3.4

2.1

6.2

6.0

12.8

10.1

21.6

26.8

42.0

Surry



0.0

1.4

0.7

2.7

2.7

5.3

4.6

7.1

8.1

11.2

James City



0.1

3.8

2.2

7.2

7.0

14.2

11.8

22.1

26.7

38.7

York



1.4

6.0

4.8

13.1

16.3

27.7

28.3

37.3

44.3

51.3

Newport News



2.2

6.9

6.1

11.0

12.9

17.9

19.3

24.8

34.9

42.3

Poquoson



1.4

4.5

4.1

8.8

10.9

16.3

16.4

16.6

16.7

16.7

Hampton



1.9

5.9

5.3

18.1

25.4

45.3

51.2

73.8

94.7

102.4

Total



23.8

90.8

78.2

200.2

263.6

468.9

519.0

847.9

1214.9

1423.8



Tidal

Cumulative (total) amount of wetlands below a given elevation

Virginia Beach

111.9

4.2

14.5

13.3

24.9

29.1

40.9

43.5

49.6

56.5

59.3

Chesapeake

39.7

4.5

16.6

15.4

32.1

36.4

58.3

55.7

120.2

180.3

250.8

Norfolk

4.7

0.1

0.3

0.2

0.5

0.7

1.1

1.1

1.5

1.7

1.7

Portsmouth

3.7

2.4

7.7

6.8

8.9

9.1

9.5

9.6

10.3

10.9

11.2

Suffolk

26.4

0.0

0.2

0.1

0.3

0.3

0.8

0.5

1.8

2.9

33.1

Isle of Wight

28.6

0.0

0.3

0.2

0.6

0.6

1.4

1.0

3.1

4.0

7.3

Surry

11.5

0.0

0.6

0.3

1.3

1.2

2.4

2.1

2.7

2.9

3.4

James City

32.8

0.0

0.8

0.4

1.5

1.4

2.8

2.5

3.7

4.2

5.6

York

17.0

0.2

0.9

0.7

2.7

3.7

6.7

6.9

8.0

9.2

9.9

Newport News

15.1

0.1

0.3

0.3

0.7

0.9

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.6

1.7

Poquoson

23.7

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.4

0.6

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

Hampton

14.3

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.4

0.5

0.9

1.1

2.2

4.4

6.2

Total

329.4

11.7

42.4

38.0

74.2

84.5

127.1

126.5

205.4

279.5

391.1

Dry and Nontidal wetland



35

133

116

274

348

596

645

1053

1494

1815

All Land

329

365

463

446

604

677

925

975

1383

1824

2144


-------
[ 126 UNCERTAINTY RANGES ASSOCIATED WITH EPA'S ESTIMATES ]

Table B.7 Low and High Estimates for the Area of Dry and Wet Land Close to Sea Level in Middle Peninsula and Northern Neck Areas, Virginia











Elevations above spring high water







Locality



50 cm

1 meter

2 meters

3 meters

5 meters





Low

High

Low

High

Low

High

Low

High

Low

High



Cumulative (total) amount of Dry Land below a given elevation

Gloucester



4.1

16.0

13.2

32.9

40.5

66.9

66.9

84.2

96.4

110.8

Mathews



4.7

14.8

13.4

33.1

43.9

73.1

78.6

96.8

114.7

120.7

Middlesex



0.2

3.4

2.0

6.8

7.3

14.4

13.1

22.8

28.1

38.9

King William



0.0

1.6

0.9

3.2

3.1

8.4

5.4

17.7

22.7

36.1

King and Queen



0.0

2.9

1.7

5.7

5.5

11.9

9.6

19.0

22.7

32.9

Essex



0.0

3.8

2.0

7.3

7.1

15.5

12.3

27.9

34.2

52.8

Lancaster



0.1

7.0

3.6

13.8

13.8

28.0

24.0

41.5

48.4

67.9

Northumberland



0.0

5.9

2.8

11.5

11.0

24.1

19.2

63.8

84.5

140.9

Richmond



0.0

4.6

2.4

8.9

8.7

18.5

15.0

31.6

38.2

56.5

Caroline



0.0

0.4

0.3

0.9

0.9

1.8

1.5

2.8

3.4

5.2

Spotsylvania



0.0

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.3

0.5

0.5

0.8

Fredericksburg



0.0

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

Total



9.2

60.5

42.4

124.2

142.1

263.2

246.0

409.0

494.2

664.0



Tidal

Cumulative (total) amount of wetlands below a given elevation

Gloucester

43.5

1.4

5.5

4.5

11.9

14.7

24.8

24.6

30.8

34.4

38.5

Mathews

27.0

1.2

3.8

3.5

8.6

11.4

19.0

21.6

33.6

48.1

55.1

Middlesex

9.7

0.0

0.7

0.4

1.4

1.4

2.8

2.4

3.5

3.8

4.8

King Wlliam

35.6

0.0

0.4

0.2

0.7

0.7

1.4

1.2

2.0

2.3

3.3

King and Queen

21.6

0.0

0.9

0.5

1.7

1.6

3.1

2.8

4.0

4.4

5.8

Essex

27.5

0.0

0.8

0.4

1.5

1.5

2.9

2.5

3.9

4.4

5.9

Lancaster

9.8

0.0

0.5

0.3

1.1

1.1

2.1

1.8

2.8

3.2

4.2

Northumberland

11.4

0.0

0.5

0.3

1.1

1.0

2.2

1.8

5.1

6.6

10.8

Richmond

21.7

0.0

0.9

0.4

1.7

1.6

3.3

2.8

4.5

5.1

6.9

Caroline

6.3

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.3

0.2

0.7

0.9

1.5

Spotsylvania

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Fredericksburg

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Total

214.3

2.6

14.1

10.5

29.7

35.1

62.0

61.7

90.9

113.5

136.9

Dry and Nontidal wetland



12

75

53

154

177

325

308

500

608

801

All Land

214

226

289

267

368

392

539

522

714

822

1015


-------
[ SECTION 1.3 127 ]

Table B.8 Low and High Estimates for the Area of Dry and Wet Land Close to Sea Level in Potomac River













Elevations above spring high water













50 cm

1 meter

2 meters

3 meters

5 meters







Low

High

Low

High

Low

High

Low

High

Low

High

Locality

State

Cumulative (total) amount of Dry Land below a given elevation

Westmoreland

VA



0.0

4.7

2.4

9.3

9.0

21.2

15.5

53.0

69.2

112.3

King George

VA



0.0

2.7

1.5

5.4

5.2

11.4

9.0

21.9

27.3

42.8

Stafford

VA



0.0

1.4

0.8

2.7

2.7

5.4

4.6

8.1

9.5

13.5

Prince William

VA



0.0

1.0

0.5

2.0

1.9

3.9

3.3

5.5

6.4

8.8

Fairfax

VA



0.0

2.0

1.1

3.9

3.8

7.6

6.6

10.7

12.4

18.1

Alexandria

VA



0.0

0.4

0.3

0.9

0.9

1.7

1.5

2.5

2.9

4.0

Arlington

VA



0.0

0.2

0.1

0.5

0.5

1.3

0.8

2.6

3.4

5.0

DC





1.6

3.0

2.8

4.4

5.5

7.4

8.9

11.1

15.9

17.7

Prince George's

MD



0.1

1.1

0.5

2.2

1.6

4.0

3.2

5.4

6.6

9.9

Charles

MD



0.7

10.9

4.6

19.4

14.1

38.4

28.3

64.0

74.2

96.0

St. Mary's

MD



1.6

12.0

5.6

19.8

14.9

39.2

27.9

70.1

81.2

99.8

Total



4.1

39.5

20.1

70.4

60.0

141.5

109.5

255.1

308.9

428.1





Tidal

Cumulative (total) amount of wetlands below a given elevation

Westmoreland

VA

14.4

0.0

0.5

0.3

1.0

1.0

2.2

1.7

5.6

7.3

12.0

King George

VA

13.5

0.0

0.5

0.3

1.0

1.0

2.0

1.7

2.8

3.3

4.6

Stafford

VA

6.8

0.0

0.5

0.3

1.0

1.0

1.9

1.7

2.6

3.0

3.9

Prince Wlliam

VA

5.1

0.0

0.2

0.1

0.3

0.3

0.6

0.5

0.7

0.8

0.9

Fairfax

VA

4.9

0.0

0.2

0.1

0.4

0.4

0.7

0.6

0.9

1.1

1.4

Alexandria

VA

0.2

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Arlington

VA

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

DC



0.5

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.3

Prince George's

MD

1.6

0.0

0.3

0.1

0.5

0.4

0.8

0.7

0.9

1.2

2.1

Charles

MD

22.9

0.1

3.6

1.4

6.2

4.6

11.3

9.0

15.9

17.8

22.2

St. Mary's

MD

11.7

0.3

1.8

0.8

3.3

2.4

7.1

4.9

12.9

15.4

22.5

Total

81.5

0.5

7.6

3.5

13.9

11.1

26.8

21.0

42.7

50.1

70.1

Dry and Nontidal wetland



5

47

24

84

71

168

130

298

359

498

All Land

82

86

129

105

166

153

250

212

379

441

580


-------
[ 128 UNCERTAINTY RANGES ASSOCIATED WITH EPA'S ESTIMATES ]

Table B.9 Low and High Estimates for the Area of Dry and Wet Land Close to Sea Level - Maryland Western Shore











Elevations above spring high water











50 cm

1 meter

2 meters

3 meters

5 meters





Low

High

Low

High

Low

High

Low

High

Low

High

Locality

Cumulative (total) amount of Dry Land below a given elevation

Prince George's



0.0

1.1

0.4

1.7

1.3

3.2

2.3

5.3

6.5

10.8

Charles



0.0

0.7

0.3

1.2

0.9

2.0

1.7

2.5

2.7

3.3

St. Mary's



0.8

3.8

2.5

8.0

8.8

18.8

18.2

30.6

38.5

48.4

Calvert



0.4

3.9

1.7

5.8

4.6

10.1

7.6

17.3

21.2

35.7

Anne Arundel



1.7

7.2

6.7

14.6

20.2

38.7

43.5

59.1

80.5

94.3

Howard



0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.3

Baltimore City



0.2

2.1

0.9

3.9

2.7

7.5

5.7

11.9

14.1

21.0

Baltimore



2.3

6.6

7.3

13.0

20.8

27.0

37.0

45.8

74.5

80.7

Harford



0.7

17.3

7.6

25.1

21.7

40.3

34.2

57.1

65.5

78.2

Total



6.1

42.7

27.5

73.4

81.1

147.8

150.3

229.7

303.7

372.7



Tidal

Cumulative (total) amount of wetlands below a given elevation

Prince George's

12.3

0.0

0.5

0.2

0.9

0.7

1.8

1.3

2.9

3.5

5.1

Charles

1.3

0.0

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.4

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

St. Mary's

7.0

0.3

1.0

0.8

2.0

2.2

3.9

3.9

5.9

7.5

8.8

Calvert

14.6

0.1

0.9

0.4

1.3

1.1

2.2

1.7

3.8

4.7

7.5

Anne Arundel

12.1

0.2

0.7

0.6

1.6

3.1

8.1

9.5

12.4

15.3

17.1

Howard

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

Baltimore City

0.2

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

Baltimore

10.5

0.1

0.3

0.3

0.7

1.0

1.3

1.5

1.7

2.2

2.3

Harford

29.4

0.2

2.5

1.2

3.8

3.3

6.2

5.2

9.0

10.2

12.0

Total

87.3

0.8

6.2

3.7

10.5

11.6

24.0

23.5

36.4

43.9

53.6

Dry and Nontidal wetland



7

49

31

84

93

172

174

266

348

426

All Land

87

94

136

119

171

180

259

261

353

435

514


-------
[ SECTION 1.3 129 ]

Table B.10 Low and High Estimates for the Area of Dry and Wet Land Close to Sea Level - Chesapeake Bay Eastern Shore













Elevations above spring high water













50 cm

1 meter

2 meters

3 meters

5 meters







Low

High

Low

High

Low

High

Low

High

Low

High

Locality

State

Cumulative (total) amount of Dry Land below a given elevation

Cecil

MD



0.2

2.5

1.0

5.2

3.7

11.6

7.8

20.0

24.3

37.9

Kent

MD



0.2

8.4

4.8

15.9

16.3

32.9

28.8

56.1

71.4

105.2

Queen Anne's

MD



0.6

4.1

5.3

11.9

24.2

35.0

51.6

68.2

125.2

142.6

Caroline

MD



0.7

3.2

2.2

6.1

6.9

12.5

13.2

19.7

25.9

32.9

Talbot

MD



2.2

7.8

11.1

23.7

64.0

98.7

148.7

175.1

265.6

279.4

Sussex

DE



0.5

1.6

1.4

3.3

4.3

7.1

8.5

13.8

26.0

36.3

Dorchester

MD



30.1

120.0

150.4

214.9

281.9

312.9

358.4

386.2

461.6

474.0

Wicomico

MD



5.0

14.9

18.3

28.6

47.1

58.5

76.0

86.2

133.2

141.6

Somerset

MD



17.1

58.4

70.5

100.7

167.8

193.4

215.1

232.5

326.5

344.6

Worcester

MD



0.7

2.7

3.1

5.8

10.6

16.5

23.6

28.4

46.1

53.4

Accomack

VA



5.8

18.4

16.8

40.4

53.3

87.5

94.2

110.4

129.5

138.1

Northampton

VA



2.3

7.2

6.5

15.8

20.8

34.5

39.9

62.8

98.7

123.7

Total



65.3

249.1

291.4

472.4

701.0

901.2

1065.8

1259.5

1734.0

1909.7





Tidal

Cumulative (total) amount of wetlands below a given elevation

Cecil

MD

12.6

0.0

0.2

0.0

0.7

0.4

1.7

1.2

2.8

3.5

5.5

Kent

MD

18.3

0.1

1.1

0.9

2.6

3.3

5.4

5.2

7.9

9.7

14.4

Queen Anne's

MD

21.4

0.2

1.1

1.5

3.0

4.9

6.5

7.9

9.6

14.6

17.9

Caroline

MD

14.4

0.3

1.4

0.7

2.6

2.5

5.3

4.4

7.5

8.0

11.7

Talbot

MD

26.1

0.1

0.3

0.5

1.0

2.5

4.2

6.8

8.5

17.9

19.6

Sussex

DE

6.7

0.6

1.8

1.6

2.7

3.1

4.4

4.8

6.4

10.1

13.1

Dorchester

MD

424.8

14.9

45.8

53.4

70.1

94.4

104.0

113.8

120.6

140.1

142.5

Wcomico

MD

67.0

5.4

9.9

10.7

13.5

24.2

29.2

37.0

44.4

67.0

70.2

Somerset

MD

265.4

6.6

15.7

17.3

21.3

34.8

39.8

45.1

51.5

80.6

90.1

Worcester

MD

23.7

0.3

0.9

1.0

1.6

2.7

4.0

6.3

8.8

18.2

20.8

Accomack

VA

156.4

5.3

16.7

15.3

34.6

44.8

71.8

76.5

88.2

103.2

111.1

Northampton

VA

25.5

0.1

0.4

0.4

1.2

1.9

3.7

4.2

6.2

8.8

10.1

Total

1062.4

33.8

95.3

103.3

155.0

219.5

279.9

313.0

362.4

481.7

526.9

Dry and Nontidal wetland



99

344

395

627

921

1181

1379

1622

2216

2437

All Land

1062

1162

1407

1457

1690

1983

2244

2441

2684

3278

3499


-------
Appendix C

Low and High Estimates of the Area of Land Close to Sea Level,
by Region: Mid-Atlantica (square kilometers)

a The low and high estimates are based on the on the contour interval and/or stated root mean square error (RMSE) of the data used to calculate
elevations and an assumed standard error of 30 cm in the estimation of spring high water. For details, see main text of this Section 1.3.


-------
[ SECTION 1.3 131 ]

Table C.1 Low and High Estimates of the Area of Land Close to Sea Level by Region

Meters above Spring High Water

Jurisdiction	low high low high low high low high low high low high low high low high low high low high

0.5	1.0	1.5	2.0	2.5	3.0	3.5	4.0	4.5	5.0

¦Cumulative (total) amount of Dry Land below a given elevation

L.I. Sound and Peconic



6

31

22

59

42

86

63

111

85

135

106

158

127

181

149

200

170

216

190

229

South Shore Long Island



19

70

59

134

108

198

161

250

216

293

266

335

309

369

347

400

380

429

410

450

NY Harbor/
Raritan Bay Total



5

72

47

143

93

200

139

230

185

260

215

288

240

316

265

343

290

360

314

374

New York



0

13

8 25

16

37

24

44

32

51

40

58

46

65

52

72

59

76

65

78

New Jersey



5

59

39

117

77

163

115

186

153

209

175

230

194

251

213

271

231

284

249

295

New Jersey Shore



18

61

66

129

131

186

184

237

223

283

262

327

304

369

344

409

382

445

418

481

Delaware Bay Total



19

62

52

108

88

154

124

206

166

259

217

312

268

366

321

421

374

470

427

512

New Jersey



3

19

15

36

27

53

39

73

52

94

70

114

90

134

109

154

127

170

146

182

Delaware



15

43

38

71

61

101

85

133

114

165

146

198

178

232

212

267

247

300

281

330

Delaware River Total



17

80

56

146

103

210

152

262

201

315

249

368

296

417

342

467

386

512

430

549

Delaware: fresh



2

6

5

10

8 14

11

19

15

24

19

28

24

32

28

36

32

39

35

42

Delaware: saline



5

13

12

20

17

27

23

33

29

40

35

47

41

54

49

62

56

70

64

77

New Jersey: fresh



0

18

7

35

17

52

28

67

39

83

52

98

65

114

77

130

90

144

102

154

New Jersey: saline



6

27

21

48

37

68

53

82

68

96

82

109

95

121

108

133

119

143

130

152

Pennsylvania



4

17

11

33

24

49

37

61

50

73

61

85

71

96

81

106

90

115

99

123

Atlantic Coast of
Del-Mar-Va Total



27

87

81

148

140

212

200

275

259

334

318

390

373

443

425

495

477

548

529

599

Delaware



11

32

28

53

46

74

64

95

82

117

104

139

126

163

149

187

172

210

196

234

Maryland



3

17

20

40

44

69

74

97

101

123

126

145

148

163

165

180

182

196

199

211

Virginia



13

37

33

55

49

69

62

82

75

94

87

106

99

117

111

129

122

141

134

154

Chesapeake Bay Total



102

466

441

906

791

1357

1193

1827

1587

2334

1973

2859

2448

3378

2962

3818

3446

4234

3865

4633

Delaware



1

2

1

3

3

5

4

7

6

10

9

14

12

18

15

24

20

29

26

36

Maryland



66

290

306

530

515

763

738

1007

952

1227

1141

1451

1352

1670

1572

1865

1778

2047

1966

2213

fresh



9

35

33

70

63

115

106

167

152

212

192

263

243

325

307

394

377

466

449

533

vulnerable



49

187

234

344

379

477

515

605

633

704

731

804

830

892

911

958

974

1011

1024

1058

saline



00
CD

00

39

117

74

171

118

235

167

311

218

385

280

454

354

513

427

570

492

623


-------
[ 132 UNCERTAINTY RANGES ASSOCIATED WITH EPA'S ESTIMATES ]

Table C.1 Low and High Estimates of the Area of Land Close to Sea Level by Region (continued)

















Meters above Spring High Water

















Jurisdiction



low

high

low

high

low

high

low

high

low

high

low

high

low

high

low

high

low

high

low

high





0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5



5.0

District of Columbia



2

3

3

4

4

6

5

7

7

9

9

11

11

13

13

15

14

16

16

18

Virginia



34

172

131

369

268

583

445

805

622

1088

815

1383

1073

1677

1362

1915

1634

2141

1857

2366

fresh



1

26

15

50

33

75

50

106

67

152

89

198

125

244

169

292

214

340

260

394

vulnerable



3 8

7

17

14

26

22

35

30

40

37

44

42

48

46

51

50

53

52

55

saline



30

138

108

302

222

482

373

665

525

896

689

1140

906

1385

1147

1573

1370

1748

1545

1916

Virginia Beach
Atlantic Coast



7

27

25

56

45

99

78

142

118

180

158

219

196

257

235

288

272

299

293

310

Pamlico Albemarle Sounds



621

1028

1186

1519

1684

2052

2239

2601

2774

3108

3274

3629

3827

4244

4449

4789

4932

5173

5269

5441

Atlantic Coast of NC



103

151

182

238

273

336

370

429

458

507

529

579

603

655

682

740

768

829

855

908

Total NY to NC



945

2136

2218

3585

3498

5089

4903

6569

6272

8008

7567

9463

8991

10994

1052012370

1187613515

13001

14486

Wetlands

Tidal









Cumulative amoiint of MnntiHal \A/c»tlanHc hc»lr\\A/ c\ ni\/£»n o I ox/at inn	

















v_/u 111 u i c4 u v c ^ lulcj i j ciiiiuuiii ui i \Ui i uucii V V c u cj 11 u o uciuvv cj y i vei i l^icvciliuii









L.I. Sound and Peconic

36

1

2

2

4

3

6

4

7

6

8

7

9

8

10

9

11

10

12

11

13

South Shore Long Island

104

1

4

4

7

6

9

8

10

9

11

11

12

11

13

12

13

13

14

14

15

NY Harbor/
Raritan Bay Total

68

0

3

2

6

4

8

6

9

7

10

9

11

9

12

10

13

11

14

12

16

New York

9

0

1

0

1

1

1

1

2

1

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

New Jersey

59

0

2

2

5

3

7

5

7

00
CD

7

9

8 10

9

11

9

12

10

13

New Jersey Shore

524

11

52

42

92

72

129

101

157

128

181

152

205

174

227

196

249

216

269

237

286

Delaware Bay Total

497

16

54

45

90

72

121

98

139

121

156

140

173

157

188

172

202

186

214

199

224

New Jersey

261

9

38

30

67

51

92

72

106

91

119

105

132

118

142

129

153

139

161

148

167

Delaware

236

7

16

15

23

20

29

26

33

31

37

35

41

39

46

43

49

47

53

51

57

Delaware River Total

216

12

41

33

64

49

85

65

93

80

101

90

108

97

115

103

122

109

127

116

133

Delaware: fresh

5

0

1

1

1

1

2

2

2

2

2

2

3

2

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

Delaware: saline

69

1

3

3

3

3

4

4

5

4

5

5

6

5

6

6

7

6

7

00

New Jersey: fresh

29

0

10

6

20

12

29

19

31

25

34

29

37

32

40

34

43

37

46

39

48

New Jersey: saline

108

10

25

22

35

30

44

37

47

44

50

47

52

50

55

52

57

54

59

56

62

Pennsylvania

6

1

2

1

4

3

6

00

6

9

7

10

8 11

9

12

9

12

10

12

Atlantic Coast of
Del-Mar-Va Total

757

3

13

13

26

24

38

36

49

47

57

55

64

62

70

68

74

73

78

77

82


-------
133 ]

21

34

27

1132

13

497

142

259

95

0

622

118

45

458

96

4695

710

7401

4486

7401

; Area of Land Close to Sea Level by Region (continued)

Meters above Spring High Water
low high low high low high low high low high low high low high low high

2

0

1

44

1

29

2
26

1

0

14

1

2
12

5

4

5
151

2
88
9
69
10
0
60
12
5
43

6	21

2083	2625

197	255

2374	3221

945	2136

2374	3221
8819 10857

4

5
4

143

2
92

7
79

6
0

49

8
4

37

10
259

3

137
18
101
18
0

119
21

11
87

20 37
2772 3039

275
3351

315
3940

2218 3585
3351 3940
11069 13025

7
9
9

231

2

136
14
110
12
0
92
14
9
69

10
13
16
375

4
194

28
137

29
0

178

30
18

129

33	47

3130	3320

335	374

3959	4512

9

14
13

334

3

189
23
147
19
0
141
21

15
106

12
17
19
489
4

244
38
166
40
0

240
37
25
178

42	57

3401	3562

393	429

4487	5001

11
18
18
425

4

231
32
170
28
0

190
27
21
142

14
22
21
590

5

282
48
182
51
0

302
44
28
230

52	66

3640	3789

448	481

4963	5449

13
22
20
510

5

267
42
188
36
0

239
34
26
179

16
26
23
699

6

329
62
206
61
0

363
52
31
280

61	73

3852	3984

495	525

5381	5864

15
26
22
618

6

315
57
213
45
0

296
40
30
227

17
28
24
809

8

377
79
228
70
0

424
59
35
330

69	81

4045	4173

538	568

5788	6266

16
29
23
724

7
361
74
232
55
0

356
47
33
276

18
31
25
911

9

420
99
242
79
0

481
70
38
373

76	88

4235	4352

583	616

6189	6652

Cumulative (total) amount of land below a given elevation

3498 5089
3959 4512
1295715101

4903 6569
4487 5001
1489017070

6272 8008
4963 5449
1673418957

7567 9463
5381 5864
18448 20826

8991 10994
5788 6266
20279 22760

10520 12370
6189 6652
22208 24521


-------