CLIMATE CHANGE
MITIGATION
STRATEGIES FOR KENTUCKY
POLICY OPTIONS FOR CONTROLLING GREENHOUSE
GAS EMISSIONS THROUGH THE YEAR 2020 AD
Air Quality and Emissions Laboratory and
Department of Chemical Engineering
Speed Scientific School
University of Louisville
Louisville, Kentucky
by
Hugh T. Spencer, Sc.D.
Department of Geography and Geosciences
College of Arts and Sciences
Belknap Campus
University of Louisville
Louisville, Kentucky
Kentucky Institute for the Environment and
Sustainable Development
Center for Environmental Engineering
University of Louisville
Louisville, Kentucky
Under a contract with
The Kentucky Natural Resources and Environmental Protection Cabinet
Division of Energy
663 Teton Trail
Frankfort, Kentucky 40601
Using funds provided by
The U. S. Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Policy, Planning and Evaluation
Federal Assistance No. CX822849-01-0
June 30, 1998
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in Kentucky are projected to increase
significantly unless several policy changes are implemented. A broadly-based technical
advisory committee was formed to develop a range of policy options that could reduce
GHG emissions without imposing undue economic burdens on Kentucky residents and
businesses. Policy options to reduce the emission of GHGs in Kentucky have been
designed to meet two criteria:
(1) The policies proposed for consideration must not be too costly. Indeed, wherever
possible, they should be designed to generate net benefits for the Commonwealth's
economy.
(2) The policies proposed for consideration must be flexible. It should be possible to
implement them on a small scale at first, to expand or intensify them over time, and to
adapt them as conditions change or as practical experience is gained.
Many of the policies presented in this report are enhancements or intensified
versions of existing programs that are now being carried out by public and private sector
organizations. Others represent new initiatives. The report presents the policy options
first in a relatively modest form that could be implemented without large changes in
budgets or investment patterns. Application of these modest proposals would achieve a
reduction in the rate of GHG emissions equivalent to 13 million tons of CO2 per year by
2020. These reductions, when coupled with a baseline reduction for carbon sequestration
of 38.2 million tons, give a net emissions figure of 205 million tons per year for 2020. If
larger reductions in GHGs are found to be necessary the policies can be maximized or
adapted in ways that are described in Chapters 6 and 7. These maximum effort policies
would result in reductions in emission rates of up to 52 million tons per year. Subtraction
of these reductions along with baseline levels for carbon sequestration from gross 2020
emission projections give a net emissions figure of 167 million tons for 2020. This
would be equivalent to the net emissions figure found for the Commonwealth of
Kentucky for the year 1990. These results are summarized in the following table:
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Sector
Policy Options to Reduce Greenhouse
Modest
Max. Effort
Gas Emissions
Options
Options
(tons C02 per
(tons C02 per
year)
year)
Residential
Enforcement of building codes
231,255
952,022
Home Energy Rating System (HERS)
66,909
509,378
Solar heating for low temp, applications
28,984
130,119
Solar electric systems
11,538
82,085
Commercial
Enforcement of building codes
583,074
2,332,296
Energy efficiency in government
94,227
456,336
buildings
Solar heating for low temp, applications
21,805
94,227
Solar electric systems
9,176
58,460
Industrial
Expanded IAC/KPPC programs
113,288
5,531,419
Solar heating for low temp, applications
77,403
372,214
Recovery of HFC-23 byproduct
3,131,004
6,258,309
Coal-bed methane recovery
23,349
200,194
Landfill gas recovery
720,000
1,440,000
Transportation
Feebates for fuel efficient vehicles
1,244,404
2,392,272
Utilities
Shift coal to gas (NGCC/IGCC/AFT)
3,652,701
10,950,702
Agriculture
Manure management
38,232
141,827
Carbon seq.
Urban forest management programs
272,888
2,728,879
Rural forest management programs
2,767,905
17,146,098
Totals
Totals reductions due to for policy options
13,188,142
51,776,830
2020 Baseline corrected for reductions
243,640,613
204,951,918
2020 Baseline minus base sequestration
205,440,613
166,751,918
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Several policy options were found to have significant potential for GHG
emissions reduction. These include the following:
• Improvements in forest management and timber production leading to increased rates
of carbon sequestration;
• The use of clean coal technologies and natural gas to generate electricity, replacing a
number of existing conventional coal power plants;
• Reduction of the emissions of chlorofluorocarbon manufacturing byproducts;
• Improved end-use efficiency in the industrial sector; and
• Improved construction practices and enforcement of energy-related building codes in
the commercial and residential sectors.
In addition, a variety of other policies and programs can be combined to yield
significant reductions in GHG emissions.
Collectively, the sum of reductions derived from all options, large and small, was
found to be sufficient to reduce Kentucky's GHG emissions in 2020 to the 1990 level, if
the policies are implemented in a vigorous and sustained manner.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. ASSESSING THE IMPACTS OF MITIGATING STRATEGIES 12
1.1 Documentation of Global Temperature Rise 14
1.2 Uncertainty in Economic Models of Climate Change Estimates 15
1.3 The Adaptive Strategies Approach to Mitigating Emissions 17
2. ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY AND ELECTRIC UTILITY RESTRUCTURING 19
2.1 Principal Components of Federal Environmental Legislation of the 1970s 19
2.2 Early Considerations Of Energy Sector Greenhouse Gas Emissions 20
2.3 Electric Utility Restructuring and Nitrogen Oxide Emissions 22
2.4 Electric Utility Restructuring and Carbon Dioxide Emissions 25
2.5 Projections for the Future taking Restructuring into Account 26
2.6 Response of the Commonwealth of Kentucky to Electricity Restructuring 29
3. POPULATION AND GHG PROJECTIONS FOR KENTUCKY 30
3.1 Population Distributions and Growth Patterns 33
3.2 Baseline Projections of GHG Emissions through 2020 AD 33
3.3 Phase II Master Spreadsheet Organization 38
3.4 Justification for baseline assumptions 39
3.4.1 Efficiency in the use of residential fuels will increase by 10 percent. 39
3.4.2 Transportation fuels: emissions per gallon of fuel used will drop by 20 percent 40
3.4.3 Transportation fuels: miles per gallon of fuel used will increase by 10 percent. 41
3.4.4 The efficiency for use of commercial fuels will increase by 10 percent. 41
3.4.5 The efficiency for use of industrial fuels will increase by 10 percent. 41
3.4.6 Efficiency in residential electricity use will increase by 10 percent. 42
3.4.7 Efficiency in commercial electricity use will increase by 10 percent. 42
3.4.8 Efficiency in industrial electricity use will increase by 10 percent. 42
3.4.9 The annual increase in gross domestic product for Kentucky will be 1.50 percent through
2020. 42
3.4.10 The annual demand for electricity will increase at a rate of 1.4 percent. 43
3.4.11 Ten percent of the coal-fired BTU load for generation of electricity will be shifted to
alternate fuels other than natural gas 44
3.4.12 Ninety percent of the BTU load given up by coal will be shifted to natural gas or to coal-gas
conversion systems 44
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3.4.13 Ten percent of the BTU load given up by coal will be shifted to oil 45
3.4.14 The coal-fired BTU load shifted to solar and wind power will be zero 45
3.4.15 Use ofbiomass for power and heat will increase by 10 percent. 45
3.4.16 Coal production increases at an annual rate of 0.5 percent. 45
3.4.17 Emissions due to fertilizer applications drops by 10 percent. 46
3.4.18 Emissions produced by livestock manure will drop by 10 percent. 46
3.4.19 Emissions due to landfills will drop by 10 percent. 46
3.4.20 Emissions due to sewer systems drops by 10 percent. 46
3.4.21 Fugitive CFC emissions will drop by 20percent. 47
3.4.22 Loss of HCFC-22 by product drops by 50 percent. 47
3.4.23 Coal mine capture of methane will be insignificant. 47
3.4.24 The gross rate of carbon sequestration remains constant at the 1990 amount. 47
3.5 2020 Baseline Scenario Greenhouse Gas Projections 48
3.6 Comparison of the Phase II Baseline to Other Studies 56
4. ADVANCES IN EFFICIENCY OF ENERGY USE 58
4.1 Methods for reducing the demand for electricity in the residential sector 58
4.1.1 Lighting systems 58
4.1.2 Home appliances 59
4.1.3 Policy initiatives for reducing residential demand for electricity 60
4.1.3.1 Education programs to provide information on electricity savings 60
4.1.3.2 Tax incentives for residential electricity savings 61
4.1.3.3 Utility support for reduction in residential use of electricity 61
4.1.3.4 Potential savings in the use of residential electricity 61
4.2 Methods for reducing fuel use in the residential sector 62
4.2.1 Home heating systems 62
4.2.2 Gas-fired home hot water heaters 63
4.2.3 Gas-fired cooking stoves 64
4.2.4 Policy initiatives for reducing residential demand for fuels 64
4.2.4.1 Policy initiatives to conserve residential heating fuels through education 64
4.2.4.2 Policy initiatives to conserve residential heating fuels through tax incentives 65
4.2.4.3 Initiatives to conserve residential fuels through changes in building codes 65
4.2.4.4 Potential savings in the use of residential fuels 65
4.3 Methods for reducing the demand for electricity in the commercial sector 66
4.4 Methods for enhancing the efficiency for fuel use in the commercial sector 66
4.5 Methods for reducing light industrial demand for electricity 66
4.6 Methods for enhancing the efficiency of fuel use in light industries 67
4.7 Methods for reducing the demand for electricity in heavy industry 67
4.8 Methods for enhancing the efficiency of fuel use in heavy industry 67
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4.9 Methods for enhancing the efficiency of liquid fuel use in transportation 67
4.10 Methods for reducing transportation emissions per unit of fuel used 68
4.11 Methods for reducing fugitive CFC emissions 68
4.12 Methods for reducing emissions of methane due to coal mining 68
4.13 Methods for reducing emissions due to bulk chemical manufacture 69
4.14 Methods for reducing emis sions due to fertilizer application 70
4.15 Methods for reducing emissions from manure management 70
4.16 Methods for reducing emissions from landfills 71
4.17 Methods for reducing emissions from sewer systems 71
4.18 Methods for enhancing renewable energy conversion systems 72
5. POTENTIAL FOR GHG EMISSION REDUCTIONS THROUGH EXISTING ENERGY
CONSERVATION PROGRAMS 73
5.1 Kentucky Division of Energy 73
5.1.1 Institutional Conservation Program (ICP) 73
5.1.2 Energy end-use efficiency in Government Buildings 74
5.1.3 Students Weatherization and Training (SWAT Jr.) Program 74
5.1.4 Demand Side Management (DSM) 75
5.1.5 Alternate Energy Program 75
5.1.6 Other Energy Programs 75
5.2 U. S. Department of Energy Industrial Assessment Centers 76
5.3 Kentucky Pollution Prevention Center (KPPC) 77
5.4 Climate Wise 78
5.5 Landfill gas recovery programs 79
5.6 US EPA Green Lights and Energy Star Buildings Programs 80
5.7 Coalition for Environmentally Responsible Economics (CERES) 81
5.8 International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives (ICLEI) 82
5.9 Programs in the Transportation Sector 83
5.10 Kentucky NEED program 85
5.11 Summary of Potential Benefits from Existing Energy Conservation Programs 85
6. POLICY OPTIONS FOR MITIGATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS 87
6.1 Energy Efficiency Initiatives 88
6.1.1 Residential and Commercial Sectors-Improve the Observance and Enforcement of Building
Energy Codes 89
6.1.2 Residential Sector-Promote Energy-Efficient Mortgages (EEMs) and Institute a Home
Energy Rating System (HERS) 91
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6.1.3 Commercial (Institutional) Sector: Expand and Fund the Energy Efficiency In Government
Buildings Program 92
6.1.4 Industrial Sector-Expand the Scope of Energy Efficiency Services Provided by the Industrial
Assessment Centers and the Kentucky Pollution Prevention Center 93
6.1.5 Transportation Sector - "Feebates" (fees coupled with rebates) to Encourage Purchase of
Fuel Efficient Vehicles 96
6.2 Renewable Energy Sources 98
6.2.1 Solar Heating for Low-Temperature Applications 98
6.2.2 Solar Electric Systems 99
6.3 Reduce Emissions of Chloroflurocarbons (CFCs) 100
6.4 Methane Capture and Recovery 101
6.4.1 Coal-bed Methane 102
6.4.2 Landfill Gas (LFG) 103
6.4.3 Manure Management Programs 103
6.5 Re-Powering (Fuel Switching) Initiatives for the Utility Industry 103
7. POTENTIAL FOR GHG INCREASING CARBON SEQUESTRATION THROUGH
EXISTING REFORESTATION PROGRAMS 107
7.1 Potential for increasing the urban forest Ill
7.2 Potential for increasing rural and managed forest 112
7.3 Existing Programs for Reforestation and Forest Management 119
7.3.1 Reclamation Advisory Memorandum (RAM) Number 124 119
7.3.2 Tree Planting Programs Designed to Off-Set Greenhouse Gas Emissions 120
7.3.3 The Kentucky Forest Stewardship Program 120
7.3.4 Division of Forestry Reforestation Programs 120
1A Policy Options for Enhancement of Carbon Sequestration 121
7.4.1 Policy options for enhancement of urban forest 121
7.4.2 Policy options for enhancement of rural forest 122
7.5 Summary of Carbon Sequestration Issues 123
8. SUMMARY AND DISCUSSION 125
8.1 Re-Powering (Fuel Switching) Initiatives for the Utility Industry 127
8.2 Implications of the Kyoto agreements 127
8.3 Economic considerations 128
9. REPORT APPENDICES 131
9.1 Glossary of terms and abbreviations 132
9.2 Policy Initiatives Worksheet 134
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Urban Forest Development Worksheet
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List of Tables
Table 1. Distribution of Man Made Ozone Precursors 23
Table 2. Proposed NOx Reductions to be Achieved by 2002 24
Table 3. Energy Information Administration Projections of Future Carbon Emissions 27
Table 4. Historic and Projected GHG Emissions for the Commonwealth of Kentucky for a
Population Driven Status Quo - No Technical Change Scenario 34
Table5. Baseline Distribution of Electricity End Use and 1990 Fuel Split for Kentucky 38
Table 6. Projection of 2020 AD GHG Baseline Emissions Calculated on the Basis of Changes
Listed in Elements 3.4.1 through 3.4.24 Superimposed over Predicted Population Changes
for an Average Growth Scenario 49
Table 7. HCFC-22 and HCFC-22 By-Product Emissions (HFC-23): 1990-1996 100
Table 8. 1990 Inventory Methane Emissions for Kentucky 101
Table 9. Distribution of Kentucky Timberlands as of the Most Recent Survey (1988) 107
Table 10. Distribution of Ownership for Kentucky's Timberlands 109
Table 11. Cumulative Carbon Sequestration for Pasture Lands Returned to Forest at a Rate
of 10,000 Acres per Year 113
Table 12. Potential for Carbon Sequestration from 2000 through 2020 for Return of Pasture,
Crop lands, Harvested Timberlands and Newly-Mined Land to Managed Forest CoverI 18
Table 13. Summary Table: Strategies for Reducing Greenhouse Gases for the Commonwealth
of Kentucky for the Period 2000 through 2020 126
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List of Figures
Figure 1. 2020 Projected Population Distribution for Average Growth Rates 31
Figure 2. 2020 Projected Population Distribution Normalized to the 1990 Base Year 32
Figure 3. 1990 Base Year Emission Rates in Tons C02 per Year 51
Figure 4. 2020 Baseline Emission Rates in Tons C02 per Year 52
Figure 5. 2020 Baseline Emission Rates Normalized to 1990 Base Year 53
Figure6. 1990 Base Year Emission Rates per Capita 54
Figure 7. Scenario Comparisons for Greenhouse Gas Emission Rates: 1990 to 2020 55
Figure 8. Comparison of Phase II Projections for Carbon Emissions to National EIA
Projections 57
Figure 9. Distribution of Kentucky Timberlands as of the most Recent Survey (1988) 108
Figure 10. Regional Estimates of Forest Carbon for Fully Stocked Timberland with Average
Management after Pasture Reversion to Forest 115
Figure 11. Regional Estimates for Forest Carbon for Fully Stocked Timberland with
Average Management after Cropland Reversion to Forest 116
Figure 12. Regional Estimates of Forest Carbon for Fully Stocked Timberland with Average
Management after Clear-cut Harvest 117
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1. ASSESSING THE IMPACTS OF MITIGATING STRATEGIES
Projections of world climate change due to global warming are characterized by
scientific uncertainty.1 We do know that greenhouse gases (GHGs), carbon dioxide in
particular, have been increasing in the atmosphere since the turn of the century, and that
the trend continues. Conway et al. (1994) have reported a global growth rate for all
NOAA/CMDL flask sampling sites of 1.43 ppm per year during 1981-1992. In the same
time frame, the CDIAC has reported an annual 1992 mixing ratio2 for CO2 of 356.4 ppm
at Mauna Loa, Hawaii.3 Precise, direct measurements of CO2 levels in the atmosphere
are not available for the turn of the century for comparisons sake, but these levels can be
inferred from gases trapped in polar ice sheets and snowpack (firn) 4 Estimates from one
such source, the Siple Station ice core, give an average atmospheric concentration for
CO2 of 295.3 ppm for the period 1899 - 1903.5 This gives a 20.7 percent increase since
the turn of the century through 1992 and, if the global rate described by Connely et al.
(1994) is taken as a linear function over the period 1992 to 2000, we predict a level of
367.84 ppm in 2000 AD — an increase of approximately 25 percent over the past 100
years. The increase since the start of the industrial revolution some two hundred years
1 Pate-Cornell, Elisabeth, Uncertainties in Global Climate Change Estimates, Climatic Change, Volume
33, pp. 145-149 (1996).
2Mixing ratios in ppm are derived by dividing the number of moles of carbon dioxide in a sample by the
total number of moles present and multiplying by one million, a mole fraction expressed as parts per
million. Concentrations in parts per million by volume (ppmv) are derived by dividing the volume of
carbon dioxide in a sample by the total sample volume and multiplying by one million. The terms "mixing
ratio" in ppm and "concentration" in ppmv are interchangeable for ideal gases.
3 Conway, T.J., P.P. Tans, andL. S. Waterman; Atmospheric C02 records from sites in the NOAA/CMDL
air sampling network. In T. A. Boden, D. P. Kaser, R. J. Sepanski, and F. W. Stoss (eds.), Trends '93: A
compendium of Data on Global Change. ORNL/CDIAC-65. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis
Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, U. S. A. As noted in
http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/cdiac/trends_htm/trends/co2/noa2/maun-tre.htm April 5, 1997.
4 Battle, M., et al., Atmospheric gas concentrations over the past century measured in air from firn at the
South Pole, Nature, Volume 383, pp. 231-235 (1996).
5 Neftel, A., H. Friedli, E. Moor, H. Lotscher, H. Oeschger, U. Siegenthaler, and B. Stasuffer. Historical
C02 record from the Siple Station ice core, pp 11-14. In T. A. Boden, D. P. Kaser, R. J. Sepanski, and F.
W. Stoss (eds.), Trends '93: A compendium of Data on Global Change. ORNL/CDIAC-65. Carbon
Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, U. S. A.
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ago is on the order of 30 percent.6 Thus, it is clear that most of the increase we see now
has occurred in the past one hundred years and climate change due to global warming, if
it has occurred as a result of these emissions, should be accounted for accordingly.
Finding direct proof of climate changes for the past 100 years or so that are
positively associated with concurrent increases in GHGs is not as simple a thing to do as
it may seem. We do know that the Earth's average surface temperature this century may
be as warm or warmer than any since 1400 AD, that this temperature has increased by 0.3
to 0.6 °C over the past century, that the last few decades have been the warmest this
century, that sea level has risen 10 to 25 cm, and that mountain glaciers are generally in
retreat.7 We may opine all we want that these changes are the direct result of the
accumulation of GHGs in the atmosphere, but our ability to conclusively prove this
statement at present is somewhat limited. The system in question - the atmosphere of the
planet Earth - is thermodynamically open, poorly mixed, never at equilibrium, and given
to irreversible changes. This leaves the study of "cause and effect" in the hands of huge
statistically driven "world circulation models" —the WCMs of the current climate
change literature. The WCMs are improving and some now show a model fit between
the known conditions of the atmosphere for this century and observed changes in global
temperature patterns. The first generation of WCMs failed to take the cooling effect of
sulfate aerosols into account and thus tended to over-estimate atmospheric warming due
to GHG accumulation. More recent WCMs take aerosols into account thereby providing
model results which, for some areas, match up better than before with documented
temperature trends from 1860 to the present.8 This begs the question: "Can we use the
current generation of WCMs to predict the impact of mitigation strategies?" The answer
is "yes", but with the qualification that projections for future levels of GHGs in the
atmosphere and associated impacts still do not have a true high degree of confidence. At
present, and probably for some time into the future, we will have to be content with broad
6 Our Changing Planet: The FY 1997 U. S. Global Change Research Program. A report by the
Subcommittee on Global Change Research, Committee on Environment and Natural Resources of the
National Science and Technology Council: A supplement to the President's Fiscal Year 1997 Budget, p. 30
(1997).
7 Ibid., Our Changing Planet, p. 34 (1997).
8 Mitchell, J. F. B. et al., Climate Response to the Increasing Levels of GHGs and Sulphate Aerosols,
Nature, Volume 376, pp. 501-504 (1995).
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ranges. Given this understanding, it is fair to say that without effective mitigating
strategies we can expect by 2100 AD to see average surface temperatures increase from 1
to 3.5 °C. This is a warming rate greater than any estimated for the past 10,000 years
and, if it indeed occurs, we should anticipate a sea level rise of 15 to 95 cm by that time.9
It would be mistake to take lightly the implications of these projections.
1.1 Documentation of Global Temperature Rise
One problem that we have with our predictive abilities, and subsequently with our
abilities to assess the impacts of mitigating strategies, is that for the past few decades
ground-based temperature monitoring systems have shown a steady increase in the
Earth's surface temperatures while satellite monitoring systems have shown a steady
decrease in lower atmospheric temperatures for the same time period.10 The record
containing this anomaly consist of files merged from a number of satellites, some of
which operated for relatively short periods. This finding has been addressed recently by
Hurrell and Trenberth (1997)11 who state at the outset of their paper that "the rate of
global annual mean surface warming of 0.13 °C for the period 1979-95 differs
substantially from the global lower-tropospheric cooling trend of -0.05°C per decade
inferred from the record (MSU-2R) of radiance measurements by the satellite Microwave
Sounder Unit."12 Hurrell and Trenberth developed a detailed study of this problem taking
into account known relationships between tropical sea surface temperatures (SST) and
temperatures in the lower atmosphere. They used measured SST values to force
atmospheric temperatures in a fourth generation NCAR Community Climate Model (
CCM3, Version 3.0) and then compared the results to the MSU-2R time sequence
satellite record. The model fitting exercise identified two step-function break points in
the MSU-2R record in mid-1981 and mid-1992. These break-points can be identified
9 Ibid., Our Changing Planet, p. 34 (1997).
10 Monastersky, R.; Global Temperatures Spark Hot Debate, Science News, Volume 151, pp. 156 (1997).
11 Hurrell, J. W., and K. E. Trenberth; Spurious trends in satellite MSU temperatures from merging
different satellite records, Nature, Volume 386, pp. 164 (1997).
12 Hurrell and Trenberth cite the following articles in support of this statement: Christy, J. R., Spencer, R.
W. and R. T. McNider, J. Clim., Volume 8, pp. 888-896 (1995); Spencer, R. W., Christy, J. R., and N. C.
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with transitions from polar satellites NOAA-6 to NOAA-7 and NOAA-IO to NOAA-12,
respectively. Thus, it does appear from the work of Hurrell and Trenberth that a
problem exists with the merged satellite data, although this has not been proven to
everyone's satisfaction. Their conclusions given below are worth noting nonetheless:
Therefore, the cumulative evidence strongly suggests the recent coldness and the
overall downward trend in MSU-2R temperatures are spurious and arise from
difficulties in matching records between satellites combined with surface
emissivity influences. The latter add considerable noise, especially over land,
while the merging of satellite records requires long overlaps between different
satellites and stable orbits that are not always achievable.13
Hurrell and Trenberth go on to suggest "the real trend in MSU temperatures is likely to
be positive, albeit small".
The debate over the validity of the MSU-2R record is quite spirited. Monastersky
quotes J. R. Christy of the University of Alabama in Huntsville as suggesting that Hurrell
and Trenberth have discovered a real change in the atmosphere, not an error.14 Christy
contends that the step-breaks observed by Hurrell and Trenberth are due to volcanic
eruptions and El Ninos. "The lesson", says Christy, "is that the tropical atmosphere has a
level of complexity that we have not yet grasped." The debate thus continues leaving one
with the feeling that nothing has really been resolved, and that in some respects
predictions of temperature increases, or the lack thereof, due to GHG emissions must
await further work before being fully accepted.
1.2 Uncertainty in Economic Models of Climate Change Estimates
Uncertainties in the extant climate change database lead in turn to uncertainties in
the forecasting of economic impacts of weather and climate forcing due to GHG
emissions. The economic implications of adaptive strategies selected for the purpose of
reducing emissions are similarly difficult to assess. Indeed, according to
Grody, J. Clim., Volume 3, pp. 1111-1128 (1990); Spencer, R. W. and J. R. Christy, J. Clim., Volume 5,
pp. 858-866 (1992).
13 Ibid., Hurrell, J. W., and K. E. Trenberth, p. 166 (1997).
14Ibid., Monastersky, R.; p. 156 (1997).
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Schimmelpfennig15, uncertainty has been handled in the economic analysis of climate
change literature "in a cursory manner, if at all." Difficulties in assessing uncertainties
arise from a number of factors. Let us assume, for example, we decide to stabilize GHG
emissions from the Commonwealth of Kentucky at 1990 levels. The level of reduction
needed in 2020 AD to achieve this will itself be a random variable having a probability
distribution and a variance, as is the initial estimate of 1990 emissions upon which it is
based. We then must consider that we have a large number of ways to achieve the
desired reduction, and that each of these choices have probability density functions
defining the distributions of each in terms of a mean and variance for the outcome of a
particular choice. Efforts to estimate economic outcomes of a particular strategy are
further complicated by the vagaries of weather. Rainfall, wind, and temperature extremes
are all random variables. Lastly, we must conclude that the degree of radiance forcing
for a given choice of emission loadings is also a random variable dependent upon a
myriad of factors.
Schimmelpfennig suggests Monte Carlo techniques as one way to deal sensibly
with this problem.16 In the Monte Carlo method, model inputs for each prime variable
are drawn randomly from user defined distributions. Thus, no two Monte Carlo model
runs can be expected to have the same input or to give the same result. This results in a
complex non-linear stochastic system requiring numerous model runs to determine the
range of possible outcomes.17 The benefit of a Monte Carlo approach is apparent. It does
indeed take randomness into account and as a result provides the researcher, and those
having to make policy decisions, with a glimpse of reality. Unfortunately, at present we
do not have all of the statistical distribution data needed to fully develop such an analysis.
Scientific uncertainties, and uncertainties in the world of economic forecasting,
naturally lead to a somewhat hazy public perception of global warming. Berk and
Schulman recently conducted a study of this issue using factorial survey methods applied
15 Schimmelpfennig, David, Uncertainty in Economic Models of Climate-Change Impacts, Climatic
Change, Volume 33, pp. 213-234 (1996). See page 213.
16 Ibid., Schimmelpfennig, p. 228 (1996).
17 Vincent C. Rideout, Modeling Studies of Socio-Economic-Resource Systems, in Resources and
Development edited by Peter Dorner and M. A. El-Shafie, The University of Wisconsin Press, IBSN 0-299-
08250-4, p. 432 (1980).
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to over 600 residents of southern California.18 They conclude that the public, including
the segment lacking a science background, does have the capacity to understand complex
scientific issues. Indeed, they suggest that "efforts to 'educate' the public through sound
bites and other baby talk may do more harm than good." They suspect, however, that the
general public does not yet appreciate the significance of what seems at present to be
arcane scientific debate over minor shifts in climate. As a result, it appears that truly
large local impacts on climate will have to be registered before a resident populace can be
expected to show willingness to pay the costs of mitigation. This situation makes it
challenging for policy makers to develop policy choices.
1.3 The Adaptive Strategies Approach to Mitigating Emissions
Nordhaus19 was among the first to apply econometric modeling techniques in an
effort to resolve questions of costs to benefit ratios in achieving GHG emission controls.
He developed the dynamic integrated climate-economy (DICE) model which
"incorporates the dynamics of emissions and economic impacts as well as the economic
costs of policies to curb emissions."20 The problem addressed at the time was simple to
state; namely, that the call for stringent controls and treaty negotiations following the Rio
Earth Summit held in June of 1992 were "progressing more or less independently of
economic studies of the costs and benefits of measures to slow greenhouse warming."
Nordhaus undertook the task of improving on this situation. He concluded, with
extensive qualifications, that a "modest carbon tax would be an efficient approach to slow
global warming, whereas rigid emissions limits or climate stabilization approaches would
impose significant net economic costs." The DICE model upon which these suggestions
were based is a dynamic optimization model for estimating the optimum path for
reductions. Optimization models, as defined by Nordhaus, are often used in economics.
They rely on the correspondence between optimization and the behavior of competitive
markets. Economic-natural parameter models that assist policy makers in selecting "best
18 Berk, R. A. and D. Schulman, Public Perceptions of Global Warming, Climatic Change, Volume 29, pp.
1-33 (1995). See pages 30-33.
19 Nordhaus, W. D ..An Optimal Transition Path for Controlling GHGs, Science, Volume 258, pp. 1315-
1319 (1992).
17
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estimate" predictions of the future have since evolved on a parallel path. These models
treat uncertainty by providing "best estimates" as probability distributions with known
mean and variance. Optimum policies are then found as functions of these
distributions.21
Climate change mitigation strategies are unique in many respects among studies
and programs having the purpose of defining policy options. The time frame over which
these policies will operate are long by most standards, extending out for decades if not
centuries. This, of course, contributes even more uncertainty to numeric results derived
from model estimates. However, as noted by the IPCC Working Group III, this long time
horizon also provides some tangible benefits, for example —"time for the accumulation
of incremental improvements in abatement techniques or for the emergence of
revolutionary, environmentally benign technologies."22 Considerations such as these
make the work of Lempert, el al. especially interesting. These authors suggest a different
solution to the problem of having to deal with large uncertainties in evaluating mitigating
strategies. They suggest an adaptive approach, or strategy, — "one that can make
midcourse corrections based on observations of the climate and economic systems".23 In
other words, and as described by the authors, a simple adaptive strategy designed to be
robust across many possible futures. The advantage of this approach to developing
mitigation strategies is self-evident given the unlimited number of GHG-driven
outcomes possible over the long time horizons involved. 'Do-a Little' and emission
stabilization policies based on fixed 'best estimates' of the future are irrevocable
trajectories cast in stone. Adaptive strategies, on the other hand, are fluid and amenable
to change along the way.
20 Ibid., Nordhaus , pp. 1315 (1992).
21 Lempert, R. J., Schlesinger, M. E. and S. C. Bankes., When We Don 'tKnow the Costs or the Benefits:
Adaptive Strategies for Abating Climate Change, Climatic Change, Volume 33, pp. 235-274 (1996). See
page 236.
22 Arrow, K. J., Parikh, J and G. Pillet, Decision-Making Frameworks for Addressing Climate Change, in
Climate Change 1995: Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change published for the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change by Cambridge University Press, p. 60 (1996).
23 Ibid., Lempert, R. J. et al., (1996).
18
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2. ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY AND ELECTRIC UTILITY
RESTRUCTURING
The past quarter century of American history has been characterized by sweeping
changes in environmental policies and legislation, and in the restructuring and
deregulation of much of the nation's industrial, utility and transportation sectors.
Transportation and electric utility industries have been the focus of much of these
activities by virtue of their utilization of fossil fuels. Fossil fuel combustion has long
been recognized as a principal source of acid rain, urban smog and greenhouse gas
emissions, carbon dioxide in particular. The restructuring of the utility industry, the
major contributor of greenhouse gas emissions for the Commonwealth of Kentucky, is
expected to affect the level of these emissions in both the immediate and far distant
future. An understanding of the timing, direction and magnitude of these changes is
critical to the development of mitigation strategies for Kentucky and for the development
of a baseline scenario for the State as well.
2.1 Principal Components of Federal Environmental Legislation of the 1970s
Three pieces of Federal environmental legislation passed into law in the early
1970s have shaped much of the Nation's environmental policies since that time. These
were, in the order of becoming law, the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) of
January 1, 197024; The Clean Air Act of 197025; and the 1972 Federal Water Pollution
Control Act26. In addition, a number of Federal agencies with focus on environmental
issues and human health were combined into the Environmental Protection Agency
(EPA) through an executive reorganization plan sent by President Nixon to Congress on
July 9, 1970. EPA was formed as an independent agency of the Executive Branch on
December 2, 1970. The Energy Research and Development Administration (ERDA), the
24 42 U.S.C.A. H 4321 et. seq., 83 Stat. 852, Pub. L. 91-190.
25 Pub. L. 91-604, 84 Stat. 1676, 42 U.S.C. If 1857 et. seq. (1970).
26 Act of October 8, 1972, Pub. L. 92-500, 86 Stat. 816 (codified at 33 U.S.C. Iflf 1251 et. seq. [Supp. 1973],
amendment 33 U.S.C. Iflf 1151 et. seq. 1970.
19
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precursor of our present Department of Energy (DOE), was established during the same
period through the Energy Reorganization Act of 1974.27
The two overriding issues that brought these legislative Acts and agencies into
being were a growing awareness on the part of the American public of serious and
continuing environmental degradation, and the oil embargo of 1973. The oil embargo
spawned an additional set of legislative acts and Presidential directives which, while not
focused specifically on environmental issues, proved no less important to these causes.
The Energy Supply and Environmental Coordination Act of 1974, for example, was
passed with intent of encouraging use of domestic coal which then and now was one of
the most abundant sources of domestic energy supply.28 President Carter's national
energy plan submitted to Congress in April 1977 was also designed to encourage
development of domestic energy resources with particular emphasis on coal.29 President
Carter also emphasized the maintenance of air quality as an integral part of his plan.
Indeed, the need to find ways of using coal as an energy source without furthering the
degradation of the nation's air resources has, from the beginning of this period to the very
present, been one of the more challenging issues facing the country. The resolution of
this issue is obviously critical to economic development in the Commonwealth of
Kentucky and to the development of greenhouse gas mitigation strategies for the State.
2.2 Early Considerations Of Energy Sector Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Congress revised the Clean Air Act in 1977 (CAA) with the following declaration
of purpose of the Act:
(1) to protect and enhance the quality of the Nation's air resources so as to
promote the public health and welfare and the productive capacity of its
population;
(2) to initiate and accelerate a national research and development program
to achieve the prevention and control of air pollution;
(3) to provide technical and financial assistance to State and local
governments in connection with the development and execution of their
air pollution prevention and control programs; and
27 42 U.S.C.A. K 5801 et. seq.
28 Pub. L. 93-319.
29 To Breathe Clean Air, Report of the National Commission of Air Quality, Washington, DC, March 1981,
p. 283.
20
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(4) to encourage and assist the development and operation of regional air
pollution control programs.30
In addition, and through the CAA, Congress established the National Commission
on Air Quality (NCAQ) to make a complete and thorough analysis of air pollution
control strategies suitable to achieving the goals of the Act.31 The NCAQ published a
major report in March, 1981 in response to a list of seven questions posed to the
Commission by Congress. One of these is of particular interest to the Kentucky GHG
mitigation study, namely; "Which air pollutants not presently regulated may pose a future
threat to health or welfare?" The principal criteria air pollutants proposed in the 1970s
for regulation at the time were: carbon monoxide, lead, nitrogen dioxide, ozone,
particulate matter and sulfur dioxide. All of the criteria pollutants are either directly or
indirectly associated with fossil fuel combustion. The utility industry, industrial sources,
and private car owners have been the focus of regulatory activities aimed at the control of
these air pollutants. Carbon dioxide, however, now a major focus in the 1990s over
concerns related to global climate change, was left out of the criteria pollutants list under
the CAA.
The NCAQ provided the following summary concerning carbon dioxide in its
March, 1981 report:32
Increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, resulting primarily from the
combustion of fossil fuels, has the potential for causing significant
changes to global climate sometime in the next century. Changes to global
climate could include changes in temperature, cloud, precipitation, wind
patterns, resulting in changes in the distribution of arable land and in the
distribution, composition, and productivity of natural ecosystems. Carbon
dioxide can remain in the atmosphere for several hundred years;
consequently, most current emissions of carbon dioxide can remain in the
atmosphere through the 21st century.
30 Selected Environmental Law Statutes, West Publishing Company, 1983, p. 37. See Pub. L. 95-95,
August 7, 1977.
31 To Breathe Clean Air, Report of the National Commission of Air Quality, Washington, DC, March 1981,
p. vii.
32 To Breathe Clean Air, Report of the National Commission of Air Quality, Washington, DC, March 1981,
p. 50.
21
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We are now at a time in our history where the potential impacts of increased carbon
dioxide levels in the atmosphere cited by the NCAQ in 1981, while still not completely
proven as accepted fact in their entirety, need to be addressed, and quite possibly in the
immediate future. The restructuring of the electric utility industry, and associated
environmental policies, are clearly current issues of major importance for this effort.
2.3 Electric Utility Restructuring and Nitrogen Oxide Emissions
There are three gaseous oxides of nitrogen:
NO — nitric oxide,
NO2 — nitrogen dioxide and,
N2O — nitrous oxide.
All are formed as combustion products. The first two in combination (NO + NO2) are
generally referred to as NOx. Nitric oxide comprises the majority of this pair as formed in
a combustion process and may make up as much as 95 percent the total NOx emitted as
a stack gas.33
NO2 dissociates into NO and O in the presence of sunlight. The free oxygen
molecule formed as a result in turn reacts with O2 to form ozone (O3). Ozone will react
with residual NO to reform NO2 and O2 under ordinary circumstances. In the presence of
VOCs (volatile organic hydrocarbons), however, residual NO is scavenged from the
atmosphere by organic free radicals. This results in a buildup of ozone in the lower
atmosphere, especially over cities and urban areas (smog).
The distribution of ozone precursor emissions among sources is shown in Table 1
below.34 The potential for long range transport of these gases and their reaction end
product, ozone, from areas where production is concentrated (the Ohio River corridor) to
the northeast has been the source of much controversy over the past decade. Congress, in
an attempt to resolve the issues involved and develop legislation if necessary, established
33 Perry's Handbook of Chemical Engineering, Seventh Edition, McGraw-Hill, 1997, p.27-27.
34 The data in Table 1 may be found in any of a number of national publications. See
http://ttnwww.rtpnc.epa.gov/naaqsfin/ for more information concerning ozone-haze data and associated
national regulations.
22
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eleven northeastern states as an Ozone Transport Region (OTR) and at the same
established an Ozone Transport Commission (OTC) to manage affairs in the OTR. The
OTC consist of twelve state governors or their designees, and a representative of
Washington, DC. Washington, DC and part of Virginia are also included in the OTR.
Table 1. Distribution of Man Made Ozone Precursors
Source
Utilities
Industrial
Transportation
Other
Nitrogen Oxides (NOx)
33.0%
17.3%
45.0%
4.7%
Volatile Organics (VOCs)
0.2%
56.9%
36.9%
6.0%
The Environmental Council of States and US EPA, in a separate action, formed
an Ozone Transport Assessment Group (OTAG) consisting of representatives from
environmental agencies from the thirty-seven eastern most states. Collectively, these
groups have conducted extensive studies and modeling efforts to ascertain the truth of the
transport issue. At present much uncertainty remains. One point of view, that expressed
largely by supporters of controls imposed to curtail NOx. holds that ozone precursors and
ozone are indeed transported over great distance from the midwest to the northeast. The
other contends that ozone and precursor impacts are limited to areas within a few hundred
miles of the primary source. It is probable, given the vagaries of the weather, that both
positions are at times absolutely correct.
Regardless of the position held, it is the expressed view of US EPA that
reductions in NOx will be necessary. Rules currently being debated are to become final
in September of 1998, and are to be met by 2002. At present these rules call for the
reductions in NOx emissions shown in the table below.
23
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Table 2. Proposed NOx Reductions to be Achieved by 2002
State
Range in Percent Reduction
New York, Washington DC
10-19%
Virginia, Connecticut, New Jersey, Rhode
Island, Delaware
20-29%
Maryland, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts,
Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Tennessee,
North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia,
Alabama
30-39%
Indiana, Ohio, West Virginia, Kentucky.
Missouri
40-44%
NOx emissions can be reduced through control of mixing, combustion and heat
transfer processes. None of these processes, however, result in a reduction of carbon
dioxide emissions unless they involve a shift from solid fuels (principally coal) to natural
gas, or to a coal to gas conversion system in combination with gas turbine electricity
generation.
As in the case of long range transport, the question of how restructuring will
affect NOx emission rates is hotly debated. Current runs of EPA's Integrated Planning
Model (IPM) and EIA/DOE's National Economic Modeling System, however, now show
some agreement with lower NOx emission increases being projected than previously
reported. These models predict rapid increases in NOx emissions until the decade 2000-
2010, after which emissions level off35 It is clear, regardless of how this all turns out,
that the impacts on Kentucky of the new NOx reduction requirements will be
35White, Jeffery P., Electric Utility Restructuring and Environmental Policy, Edison Electric Institute,
September 12, 1997, p. ES-1.
24
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extraordinary, and these impacts will have a profound influence on greenhouse gas
mitigation strategies as well.
2.4 Electric Utility Restructuring and Carbon Dioxide Emissions
The electric utility industry has long been identified as a major source of carbon
dioxide with the 50 largest utilities in the eastern most states contributing 64 percent of
the national electric utility emissions.36 The burning issue concerning restructuring for
these utilities, including those in the Commonwealth of Kentucky, is how each will adjust
to the more competitive markets for the sale of electricity once the "monopoly based"
market systems are gone. These systems were partially removed at the wholesale level
by the Energy Policy Act of 1992 and FERC order 888, which collectively "require
utilities to provide nondiscriminatory transmission service for all wholesale
transactions."37 The tendency, given the coming of open retail competition between the
utilities, will be to lower the costs of the product (electricity) where possible. This in
turn could lead to continued use of older coal-fired plants in lieu of building new
generating facilities with current (and expensive) air pollution control devices, and to the
continued direct use of coal as an energy source. The outcome of the debate over these
possibilities will no doubt have a profound effect on air pollution and, subsequently, on a
number of issues relating to utility rates, fuel choices and emission controls.
Older generating units did not for a time have to meet the stringent requirements
placed on newer systems through the CAA and thus, if allowed to continue to operate as
such, would in effect be allowed an "environmental economic subsidy, providing an
incentive to extend the 'lives' of these units."38 New units built on older station locations
do of course meet new performances standards. Acid rain elimination provisions of the
1990 CAA also went into effect on January 1, 1995. These new provisions specifically
36 Benchmarking Air Emissions of Electric Utility Generators in the Eastern United States; from the
Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), Public Service Electric and Gas Company (PSE&G), and the
Mid-Atlantic Energy Project of the Center for Environmental Legal Studies, Pace University School of
Law, (1995), p. 5. This report is available from the internet at: http//www.nrdc.org/nrdcpro.
37 Ibid, Benchmarking Air Emissions of Electric Utility Generators in the Eastern United States, (1995) p.
36.
38 Ibid, Benchmarking Air Emissions of Electric Utility Generators in the Eastern United States, (1995) p.
37.
25
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limit the sulfur dioxide emissions from older plants. Thus, incentives to keep older units
operating beyond their typical life span, a process once common-place in the industry, are
beginning to be taken away. The question of fuel switching is significantly influenced by
these considerations.
This situation and its immediate implications is best summarized in a quote from
a recent Natural Resources Defense Council Report (NRDC):39
It is important to note that if competition leads to increased use of higher-
emitting coal units in the Midwest and Southeast, the additional emissions
will exacerbate pollution problems in downwind areas, such as the
Northeast, regardless of where the customers buying the additional power
are located. Unless these emissions are controlled, environmental
regulators in downwind areas and states will need to impose additional
controls on their own citizens and businesses to offset the impacts from
these increased emissions.
If one thing about this is clear, it is that the policy issues raised by restructuring are
extremely complex, and that questions pertaining to carbon dioxide emissions, questions
with at least the potential for becoming the dominant issues for the future, have only just
begun to be debated.
The NRDC report goes on to make an observation which is worth noting; namely,
that coal-fired units built in the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s still account for three-fourths of
the 1995 steam electric generation. Future modifications made at these plants,
particularly those operating in the Commonwealth of Kentucky is, of course, of
considerable interest to those trying to develop greenhouse gas mitigation strategies for
the State.
2.5 Projections for the Future taking Restructuring into Account
We now have the benefit of an extensive and entirely recent literature dealing
with the implications of restructuring. Understandably, much of the information is in
conflict. This literature has been reviewed by White40 who chose to place the topics
covered under three main headings: Macroeconomics Studies, Focused Modeling
39 Ibid, Benchmarking Air Emissions of Electric Utility Generators in the Eastern United States, (1995) p.
37.
26
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Analysis, and Qualitative Issue Discussions. Much of the current interest in restructuring
has been focused on issues pertaining to economics, nitrogen oxide emissions and
transport and, to a lesser extent, on carbon emissions. The nitrogen oxide emissions are
interrelated with ozone levels across the eastern states, especially in the northeast, and
these emission rates, and questions concerning long-range transport, projected with and
without changes coming from restructuring, are now a source of considerable debate.
The Energy Policy Act of 1992 directs the Energy Information Administration
(EIA) to collate and publish an inventory of national emissions of greenhouse gases
covering a 1987 to 1990 baseline period, and to provide annual updates. This
requirement complements the 1990 amendments to the CAA which in turn requires
reporting of carbon dioxide emissions by utilities.41 The EIA does conduct and regularly
publish an analysis of carbon emissions, energy use and the Climate Change Action Plan.
At present, the EIA projects a 1.4 percent per year growth rate for electricity sales
through 2010, and subsequent increases in carbon emissions. The EIA projections for
carbon emissions based on this growth figure are given below.42
Table 3. Energy Information Administration Projections of Future Carbon
Emissions
Year Carbon Emissions Percentage
4llWhite, Jeffery P., Electric Utility Restructuring and Environmental Policy, Edison Electric Institute,
September 12, 1997.
41 White, Jeffery P., Electric Utility Restructuring and Environmental Policy, Edison Electric Institute,
September 12, 1997. See page 42, ref. 16.
42 White, Jeffery P., Electric Utility Restructuring and Environmental Policy, Edison Electric Institute,
September 12, 1997, p. 8.
27
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millions tons per year
1994
496
base year
2000
521
5.0
2005
570
14.9
2010
610
23.0
2015
657
32.5
The following conclusions based on these data and on the forgoing analysis can
be drawn with reference to utility restructuring.
(1) It is fair to say that the construction in Kentucky of new coal-fired plants based
on past design parameters over the next twenty-five years is very unlikely. Such plants
would have to be built with stringent controls for heavy metals, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen
oxides, carbon monoxide, particulates and, quite possibly, for carbon dioxide. These
types of systems would not enable the power to be competitive in the distant and heavily
populated markets of the northeast, and the demand for electricity locally cannot be
expected to justify the expense.
(2) Older generating systems will continue to operate here as long as possible, and
an increase in the transmission of electricity from these plants to markets beyond
Kentucky's borders should be anticipated.
(3) New peaking units built in Kentucky over the next twenty-five years will be
fired entirely by natural gas.
(4) Some fuel switching will take place in Kentucky with coal being replaced by
natural gas. The degree to which this will take place, however, cannot be predicted with
any accuracy at present.
(5) Emphasis in the State will be shifted to development of coal as a clean energy
source, with intense research efforts being made to find ways to shift utility base loads to
coal-gas conversion systems that make extensive use of waste heat.
28
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2.6 Response of the Commonwealth of Kentucky to Electricity Restructuring
The General Assembly of the Commonwealth of Kentucky, through House Joint
Resolution No. 95 dated March 12, 1998, has established an Electricity Restructuring
Task Force, "whose membership shall carefully study the issue of electric restructuring in
Kentucky during the 1998-2000 interim and analyze its impacts upon the
Commonwealth." The task force is to meet monthly beginning no later than October 1,
1998, and is to report back to the Legislative Research Commission and the Governor
with findings and recommendations by no later than November 15, 1999.
29
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3.
POPULATION AND GHG PROJECTIONS FOR KENTUCKY
Population projections for Kentucky for 1990 to 2020 have been developed by
Sawyer and Scobee for the University of Louisville, Kentucky State Data Center43; and
by Campbell for the U. S. Bureau of the Census.44 The projections take a number of
factors into account. Migration is projected according to 1990-1994 trends, and it
assumed that longevity increases in the future. In general, the assumption of minimal
gains from migration confers moderate growth. The opposite assumption provides a high
growth scenario.
The most recent projections from the U. S. Bureau of the Census show a growth
rate in Kentucky population six percent below the high growth series of Sawyer and
Scobee, but in excess of the projections for moderate growth. The population increases
for these projections are as follows:
(1) for high growth scenario = 844,000 persons or 23 percent;
(2) increase according to census bureau = 626,000 persons or 17 percent;
(3) for moderate growth scenario = 240,000 persons or 7 percent.
This gives a 3.5 fold difference between the lowest and highest figure which, as will be
shown below, contributes to an even more dramatic difference in GHG emissions. In all
three cases, however, population increases at relatively steady rates.
The distribution of population by county for average growth between the
moderate and high growth scenarios of Sawyer and Scobee is shown in Figure 1. These
projections normalized to the 1990 base year population are shown in Figure 2. Major
roads are also indicated in these diagrams.
43 Price, M., Sawyer, T. and M. Scobee, How Many Kentuckians: Population Forecasts 1990-2020. 1992
Edition, Kentucky State Data Center, University of Louisville. P. 1-7 (1992).
44 Campbell, P. R., Population Projections for States, by Age, Race, and Sex: 1993 to 2020, U. S. Bureau
of the Census, Current Population Reports, P25-111, U. S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC,
(1994); as cited in Price et al., (1992).
30
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Figure L 2020 Projected Population Distribution for Average Growth
Rates
A high growth scenario for Kentucky's population developed by the University of
Louisville, Kentucky State Data Center offers a 23 percent increase by 2020. . I more moderate
growth Scenario suggested by the same group suggests 7 percent. The Bureau of the Census, by
comparison, offers 17 percent as a growth potential for the Commonwealth. The following figure
plots the average value, county by county, taken between the two University of Louisville
estimates. For the state as a whole, this average produces a 15 percent increase in total
population, a figure used extensively in calculations that follow.
It is evident from this figure that growth patterns leading to increased population
densities along the major highway corridors is anticipated.
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31
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Figure 2. 2020 Projected Population Distribution Normalized to the 1990
Base Year
County populations projected for 2020 normalized to 1990 are presented in Figure 2.
These data are presented in a dichromatic format with shading to the reds for counties anticipated
to grow, and to the blue for those expected to decrease in population. Here again, the impact of
major highway corridors is evident.
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32
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3.1 Population Distributions and Growth Patterns
It is evident from the data given in Figures 1 and 2 that growth in population is
expected to occur through 2020 AD primarily along the interstate highway corridors, and
along the Commonwealth's parkways. Counties in the eastern portion of the state not
directly served by a major highway are expected to lose population. Counties intersected
by major highways in the more populous and industrialized parts of the state, on the other
hand, are expected to develop even further. Several exceptions to this pattern are notable,
in particular Jefferson County. Jefferson's population in 1990 was 665,123. The high
growth projection for 2020 AD is 732,026, an increase of 10 percent as compared to the
23 percent high growth increase for the state as a whole. The search for convenience and
employment is the probable driving force for the modest changes in Jefferson County,
and for the decreases observed in another nine counties. New industry and development
are more likely to develop along major corridors of transportation than anywhere else.
Our population projections, as one might expect, reflect this phenomena in terms of gain
for counties where development is expected, and losses where it is not.
3.2 Baseline Projections of GHG Emissions through 2020 AD
Greenhouse gas emissions, especially those generated by the residential,
commercial, and industrial sectors, are driven by population change, by change in gross
domestic product, and by technological advances. Utility-generated emissions are also
strongly influenced by these factors, although the effects may be more regional than
local. Utility service areas often cross state lines. In addition, major utility power plants
tend to be located along large waterways, many of which also form state boundaries. In
the case of the Kentucky, Indiana, Illinois and Ohio we see extensive development of
coal-fired power plants along the Ohio main stem, and along the lower Wabash which
separates southern Indiana and Illinois. The 'corridor' of power plants placed along this
region's major rivers has long been recognized as a significant geographic feature of the
33
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Midwest.45 This fact, along with knowledge of the quantity of utility-generated CO2,
provides strong support for the concept of regional mitigation studies.
The inventory of GHG emissions for Kentucky for 1990 was conducted on a
county by county basis with all calculations resident within one Excel 5.0©
spreadsheet.46 Direct conversion of the 1990 spreadsheet to other years on the basis of
projections of county by county population change was developed as a first
approximation to future and past GHG emissions based first on a "status quo" scenario
that assumed no significant change in gross domestic product or of any parameter other
than that driven by population. Estimates for this scenario based on the average between
moderate and high growth patterns, while admittedly unrealistic, are instructive in that
they show how powerful a factor population is in making GHG projections for Kentucky.
The results of these calculations are given in Table 4 in terms of gross emissions, and
with carbon
Table 4. Historic and Projected GHG Emissions for the Commonwealth of
Kentucky for a Population Driven Status Quo - No Technical Change Scenario
Year of Observation Historic GHG Emissions Population Driven GHG
tons C02 per year Emissions
tons C02 per year
gross
net
gross
net
1960
170,000,000
132,000,000
*****
*****
1970
180,000,000
142,000,000
*****
*****
1980
204,000,000
166,000,000
*****
*****
1990
206,000,000
167,000,000
*****
*****
2000
*****
*****
216,000,000
178,000,000
2010
*****
*****
225,000,000
187,000,000
2020
*****
*****
235,000,000
197,000,000
sequestration taken into account (net), assuming the rate for sequestration found for
Kentucky for 1990 holds constant from 1960 through 2020.
45 Stukel J. J. and Boyd Keenan, Ohio River Basin Energy Study ORBES Phase I. Interim Findings, Grant
No. R804848-01, Office of Research and Development, US EPA, Washington, DC, pp. 73-76 (1978).
46 Spencer, H. T., Kentucky Greenhouse Gas Inventory: Estimated Emissions and Sinks for the Year 1990,
University of Louisville, Speed Scientific School under contract with The Kentucky Natural Resources and
34
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A more meaningful set of projections was obtained by applying a modification of
the technological and economic changes suggested by Meyer and Lyons as a component
of the Kentucky Outlook 2000 project.47 This project was developed by the Center for
Environmental Management (CEM) at the University of Louisville for the Kentucky
Long Term Policy Research Center for the express purpose of examining "policy
alternatives and the identification of directions for policy change that hold the promise of
sustainable development that enhances both the socio-economic well-being and the
quality of the physical environment of the people of Kentucky"48 In many respects this
project and the Kentucky Greenhouse Gas project share the same goals and, to a lesser
degree, some of the same methodologies and constraints.
The forecasting process used in the CEM study relied upon two computer
programs to obtain mathematical and environmental projections for the year 2025 using
1995 as a base year. The models applied were the REMI econometric forecasting model
for Kentucky operated by the Legislative Research Commission, and the POLESTAR
model provided by the Tellus Institute of Boston, Mass. POLESTAR was described as "a
decision-support tool that links annual releases of pollutants to the air, water, and soils of
a geographic area, rates of natural resource consumption and changes in land use patterns
to levels of population and gross domestic product by major sector" 49 A number of
"technical change" assumptions were built into the POLESTAR and REMI projections
based on a review of the literature and current circumstances for Kentucky. Those of
particular interest to the Kentucky GHG study are listed below as suggested for the year
2025:
1. The Burley quota will drop by 50 percent;
2. The demand for coal (eastern and western fields) will decline by 15 percent;
3. Fuel efficiency will rise by 25 percent for motor vehicles;
4. Vehicle emissions per unit of fuel will drop by 20 percent;
5. Demand for electricity for household lighting and appliances will drop by 40 percent;
Environmental Protection Cabinet using funds provided by the US EPA, Office of Policy, Planning and
Evaluation, Federal Assistance No. CX822849-01-0 (1996).
47 Meyer, P. B. and T. S. Lyons, Forecasting Kentucky's Environmental Futures, Kentucky Institute for
the Environment and Sustainable Development, Center for Environmental Management, June 27, 1996.
48 Ibid., Meyers and Lyons, p. 1.
35
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6. Total fuel use for space heat will drop by 20 percent;
7. Electricity consumption in the service sector will drop by 50 percent;
8. Industrial power use, outside of fuel consumption for transportation, will fall by 30
percent;
9. Use of natural gas or LPG in the transportation sector increases by a factor of 3;
10. Use of wood biomass increases by 25 percent in several sectors while other fuels
(except for coal) drop proportionately.
Meyers and Lyons also suggested a significant decrease in the built environment
required per capita, generally that portion of the land taken up with urban, commercial
and industrial development; i.e., roads, parking lots and buildings. The changes offered
for 2025 AD were given by region with the assumption that forest lands would grow in
response:
Bluegrass 25 percent
Central 15 percent
Eastern 10 percent
Western 15 percent
These changes were assumed to occur on their own and in the absence of policy
changes made for the specific purpose of reducing, for example, the amount of emissions
per unit of automotive fuel or the demand for electricity. Meyers and Lyons assumed
that such "changes will be sufficiently attractive economically, as well as
environmentally, to result in broad adoption of the new technology".50 In making these
assessments, however, these authors also assumed in some cases that the impact(s) of
global warming and associated policy changes would play a part.51
Other changes not cited by Meyers and Lyons that may well occur without an
additional policy push, and which could affect GHG emissions as well, are the reduction
in fugitive CFCs and related compounds. These were shown in Phase I to be significant
contributors for Kentucky.
49 Ibid., Meyers and Lyons, p. 5.
50 Ibid., Meyers and Lyons, p. 36.
51 Ibid., Meyers and Lyons, item : "Coal Mining", p. 32.
36
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The suggestions of easily adaptable technical changes made by Meyer and Lyons
were incorporated, with some modification, into the population-driven scenario discussed
above to give a first set of true baseline projections for the Kentucky Phase II project.
The parameters applied are listed below. It is to be understood that the changes listed, an
increase in the demand for electricity of 1.4 percent annually, for example, are assumed
to be taking place in addition to increases due just to population.
1. The efficiency for use of residential fuels will increase by 10 percent;
2. Emissions per gallon of transportation fuel used will drop by 20 percent;
3. Miles per gallon of transportation fuel used increases by 10 percent;
4. The efficiency for use of commercial fuels will increase by 10 percent;
5. The efficiency for use of industrial fuels will increase by 10 percent;
6. The efficiency for use of electricity in the residential sector will increase by 10
percent;
7. The efficiency for use of electricity in the commercial sector will increase by 10
percent;
8. The efficiency for use of electricity in the industrial sector will increase by 10 percent;
9. The gross domestic product for Kentucky will increase by 1.50 percent annually;
10. The demand for electricity will increase by 1.4 percent annually;
11. Percent of electricity generated from direct coal combustion will drop by 10 percent;
12. Ninety percent of the coal-fired BTU load given up will be shifted to either natural
gas or to coal-gas conversion systems;
13. Ten percent of the coal-fired BTU load given up will be shifted to oil;
14. The amount of coal-fired BTU load shifted to wind and solar will be inconsequential;
15. Use of biomass for power and heat increases by 10 percent;
16. Coal production increases by 15 percent;
17. Emissions due to fertilizer application drops by 10 percent;
18. Emissions due to manure management drops by 10 percent;
19. Emissions due to landfills drops by 10 percent;
20. Emissions due to sewer systems drops by 10 percent;
21. Fugitive emissions of CFCs drop by 20 percent;
22. Loss of HCFC-22 byproduct drops by 50 percent;
37
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23. No net increase in methane capture by mining operations.
24. Net carbon sequestration will remain constant at 34,200,000 tons per year.
3.3 Phase II Master Spreadsheet Organization
Predictions 1 to 24 listed above, as incorporated into the Excel 5.0© spreadsheet
developed in Phase I for the 1990 base year, resulted in a master spreadsheet for Phase II
calculations.52 Design details for this master spreadsheet are provided in the report
appendix (8.2) along with an example "Policy Initiative" worksheet.
The division of electricity according to end use in Kentucky in 1990 is given in
Table 5 along with the 1990 fuel split for electricity generation. The fuel split, as
indicated by figures in the page center (Appendix 8.2), is recalculated with each change
in year beyond 1990. The division in electricity end use, however, remains fixed in the
spreadsheet with the numbers shown in Table 5. The division in electricity end use was
determined using methodology developed in the Ohio River Basin Energy Study.53 The
principal data source used in making the calculations was the Department of Energy EIA
data report tabulated through 1991.54
Table 5. Baseline Distribution of Electricity End Use and 1990 Fuel Split for
Kentucky
Electricity Percent of Economic Sector Percent of
52 See Report Appendix
53 Hartnett, James P. and Jan L. Saper, Energy Consumption Patterns: Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio,
Pennsylvania and West Virginia, Ohio River Basin Energy Study (ORBES), pp. 62 (1975).
54 State Energy Data Report 1991: Consumption Estimates, Energy Information Administration, Office of
Markets and End Use, U. S. Department of Energy, DOE/EIA 0214 (01), pp. 141, (May 1993).
38
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Generation Power
Electricity
for Distribution of
Electricity per
Source
Generated: 1990
Electricity
Economic Sector
Coal
99.29
Industrial
47.00
Hydro-electric
0.29
Residential
24.00
Natural gas
0.25
Commercial
17.00
Distillate oil
0.17
Transportation
0.00
Solar
0.00
Losses
10.00
Wind
0.00
Export
3.00
Total
100.00
Total
100.00
3.4 Justification for baseline assumptions
The twenty-three assumptions that yield baseline technical and economic forecast,
and the changes in population discussed earlier, are all speculative. The assumptions
listed below are intended to represent fairly conservative estimates of trends that are
likely to affect GHG emissions between 1990 and 2020. The results that come from these
assumptions, however, are still important in that they do provide a starting point for
policy change design. Changes in these figures, especially if applied to sectors with
significant impact, can have a dramatic effect on the outcome of the baseline projection
and, subsequently, on the focus of policy initiatives. Thus, it is important to review the
merit of each.
3.4.1 Efficiency in the use of residential fuels will increase by 10 percent.
The efficiency of residential fuel use has been set to improve without the need of
a policy push by at least 10 percent through the year 2020. A number of factors favor
this change. It is anticipated that with the shift in population discussed earlier that a good
deal of new housing will be developed. These homes will be built with codes that have
been improved over the years to include improvements in the efficiency of energy
39
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utilization55. Heating systems, especially the central heat generator, have also improved
dramatically in the past two decades. It is
anticipated that those older systems still in existence today will be completely replaced
by the year 2020. In addition, newer homes and developments are also expected to take
tree cover into account when given the opportunity. All of these factors, and the reality
that energy costs will rise, add together to ensure that the efficiency of residential fuel use
will go up.
3.4.2 Transportation fuels: emissions per gallon of fuel used will drop by 20
percent
The population of the Commonwealth is expected to shift toward a more urban
environment with greatest concentration along the main highway corridors. It is
anticipated that this in turn will result in the expansion of vehicle emission testing
programs and, in response to need, in the development of engines that produce less
carbon monoxide, particulates, and VOCs. The extent to which this will occur is difficult
to gauge but the direction of change is sure to be in the direction of a reduction.
Alternate fuels and combined systems using fuel cells, electrically powered
vehicles and clean burning fossil fuels are also expected to come along during the 30-year
period in question. These changes too are difficult to assess but they are certain to take
place. Many such vehicles, especially those fully electrically powered and those using
55 The phrase "improvements in the efficiency of energy utilization" may appear cumbersome to some.
Indeed, the phrase is often abbreviated to read "energy conservation" or "energy efficiency," both of which
may be more familiar to the reader. However, the phrases "energy conservation" and energy efficiency"
are technically meaningless and do not appear in this report except in the instance of discussing EER
(Energy Efficiency Ratings) values for modern appliances. The EER term is a US government creation
stamped into the metal work on some appliances and cannot be avoided. The first abbreviation, "energy
conservation," fails by virtue of a fundamental tenet of thermodynamics; namely, that energy (and mass)
are always conserved regardless of what we do. We should not imply through our writings that we can
improve in some way on this fundamental law. The second term, "energy efficiency," also fails by virtue
of basic thermodynamic definitions; namely, that the term "efficiency" as applied to heat engines and heat
exchange systems—automobiles, refrigerators, air conditioners, home heating units, power plants, etc., etc-
— refers to the efficiency of energy utilization. Mathematically, the term "efficiency" is equal to the
absolute value of the work done by the engine, or heat delivered or removed by the exchange system,
divided by the heat it has adsorbed or utilized in the process. Efficiency is a unitless term usually expressed
as a percentage. You can buy a bottle of lubricant to make an engine work more efficiently, and thus to use
energy more efficiently in producing work, but you cannot buy a bottle of "energy efficiency," nor can one
utility sell electricity that is more efficient than electricity purchased from any other utility.
40
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natural gas, are already on the road. Thus, the assumption that we will see a 20 percent
reduction in emissions per unit of fuel burned appears quite reasonable.
3.4.3 Transportation fuels: miles per gallon of fuel used will increase by 10 percent.
Fuel mileage figures for vehicles on the road today far exceed those of two
decades ago. There is every reason to expect this trend to continue in the future. Fuel
costs and taxes on fuels will rise, and environmental constraints in addition to those
directly associated with greenhouse gas emissions will also continue to develop. In
addition, it appears probable that more people will find it beneficial to carpool if, as
projected, population shifts to a more urban setting where parking can become a problem.
Vans and light trucks are projected to increase in number as well to produce some
offset to the gains provided by increased fuel efficiency. As a consequence the efficiency
in fuel consumption per vehicle mile has been held to an increase of only 10 percent.
3.4.4 The efficiency for use of commercial fuels will increase by 10 percent.
Excluding fuel used for transportation, commercial fuel use is expected to be
more efficient for many of the same reasons as cited for residential users. Commercial
establishments also have the need to maintain an adequate profit margin. This
association with market pressures leads naturally to costs-cutting steps, not the least of
which is in the area of improved energy end-use efficiency.
3.4.5 The efficiency for use of industrial fuels will increase by 10 percent.
The same considerations made for residential and commercial users will apply to
industrial systems. In addition, it must be anticipated that severe constrictions will be
placed on industrial emissions in the coming future for the sake of controlling air toxics
and fine particulates. This fact, and the reality that Kentucky's industries now face true
global competition, leads to an estimate of 10 percent increase in the efficiency of
industrial fuel use. The direction of change and its magnitude will be driven by the need
to cut costs and meet environmental restrictions.
41
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3.4.6 Efficiency in residential electricity use will increase by 10 percent.
A wide range of new energy-efficient appliances and lighting systems are
anticipated for the future. In many cases these will become the only items on the market.
It is highly probable that these fixtures will result in a minimum of a ten percent increase
in the efficiency of residential electricity use, especially in the area of cooling. Improved
insulation and building design are also expected to have an ongoing impact in the
direction of increased efficiency of heat transfer.
3.4.7 Efficiency in commercial electricity use will increase by 10 percent.
Commercial business are expected to improve on electricity end-use efficinecy for
much the same reasons as discussed above for residential users. In addition, commercial
institutions have to consider the added incentive of profit motive and competitiveness.
Savings in energy costs will become an ever more important part of this mix in the future.
3.4.8 Efficiency in industrial electricity use will increase by 10 percent.
The largest fraction of electricity used in Kentucky in 1990 was by the industrial
sector at 47 percent. Thus, any significant change in this portion, or increase in
efficiency of the use of electricity in this sector, will have a measurable impact. Market
forces and competition will force the same end-use efficiency efforts on industry as on
the commercial sector.
3.4.9 The annual increase in gross domestic product for Kentucky will be 1.50
percent through 2020.
Meyers and Lyons in their forecast for the year 2025 used figures for efficiency
improvements similar to those selected for the phase II baseline projection, though
possibly not quite as conservative. These authors consequently projected through the
REMI model that the Commonwealth's total gross domestic product would increase by
47 percent through 2025.56 An annual increase of 1.50 percent gives an increase of 45
percent through 2020. Subsequently, this figure was taken as reasonable for the Phase II
baseline projections. Population increases were held to 5 percent by Meyers and Lyons
56 Ibid., Meyers and Lyons, p. 47.
42
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which is somewhat modest as compared to the figure of 15 percent used here (the average
of high and moderate growth projections). A figure of 45 percent increase in total gross
domestic product for 2020 used in this study is thus quite conservative and implies a
GDP growing somewhat independently of population. This figure of 45 percent could go
significantly higher if, as is anticipated, the focus of industry shifts ever more toward
increased productivity, resource conservation and expanded profit margin.
3.4.10 The annual demand for electricity will increase at a rate of 1.4 percent.
Meyers and Lyons assumed for their technical change scenario that electricity
consumption in the service sector would fall by 50 percent through 2025.57 They also
assumed that electricity use would drop by 33 percent in light industry, and by 40 percent
for household lighting and appliances. These assumptions together with others listed in
section 2.2 gave a predicted increase in total energy demand of 18 percent.58 This
baseline scenario was restructured to take a number of additional factors into account:
increased timbering, secondary wood processing, additional manufacturing employment
and expansion of the tourism industry.59 This resulted in a total energy demand increase
of 33 percent. The mix of energy resources relied upon to provide this increase is
assumed not to change.60
Although the exact figures are unknown, it is highly probable that the demand for
electricity will increase regardless of more efficient use. Thus, and partly in response to
the POLESTAR and REMI estimates produced by Meyers and Lyons, a figure of 35
percent increase has been selected for the Phase II baseline.
The Energy Information Administration has also conducted a microeconomic
analysis on utility restructuring using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS).
The reference case for this study assumed a 1.4 percent annual growth rate in electricity
sales which in turn computes to 47 percent increase in demand through 2020 AD.61 This
57 Ibid., Meyers and Lyons, p. 37.
58 Ibid., Meyers and Lyons, Table 2, p. 12.
59 Ibid., Meyers and Lyons, p. 7.
60 Ibid., Meyers and Lyons, p. 70.
61 White, Jeffery P., Electric Utility Restructuring and Environmental Policy, Edison Electric Institute,
September 12, 1997, p. 8.
43
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figure exceeds the choice made by Meyers and Lyons but has been adopted for this study
on the basis of its being derived through analysis of utility industry restructuring issues.
3.4.11 Ten percent of the coal-fired BTU load for generation of electricity will be
shifted to alternate fuels other than natural gas.
It is anticipated that major producers of greenhouse gases, particularly the electric
utilities, will shift as much of their generation load to other fuels as economically
possible. The shift will be to natural gas and, to a lesser extent, to distillate oils. This
change will likely occur in the absence of new policy initiatives. Concern over fine
particulates and the specter of pressure from international treaties regulating carbon
dioxide emissions are expected to be the driving forces. Some aspects of utility
restructuring are also expected to impact this industry. Collectively, these factors to
make the circumstances of prediction for the utilities extremely fluid.
3.4.12 Ninety percent of the BTU load given up by coal will be shifted to natural gas
or to coal-gas conversion systems.
Utilities will gain the most benefit in terms of CO2 emission reduction by shifting
to natural gas. There are 31.9 pounds of carbon per million Btu of natural gas, 44.0
pounds per million Btu for distillate fuels, and 56.0 pounds per million Btu for
bituminous coal.62 Natural gas supplies, however, have declined in recent years.
Deregulation at the well-head may bring improvement in gas supplies in the future, and
supplies may also increase through the development of coal to gas conversion systems.
Still, the question remains: "Will there be a supply of natural gas in the future adequate
to support a major shift of utility base-load from coal to gas?" In 1990 Kentucky's
utilities used 1,900 million cubic feet of natural gas, a fraction of the 75,000,000 million
cubic feet produced in the state in that year. The baseline projection for 2020 suggest,
however, that if 10 percent of the coal utility base is shifted to natural gas-coal gas
conversion the demand will be for an additional 100 billion cubic feet per year. This
demand, given the probable improvements in combined-cycle gas burning technology,
has the appearance of being reasonable.
44
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3.4.13 Ten percent of the BTU load given up by coal will be shifted to oil.
The shift to distillate oils is envisioned to be considerably smaller, and thus much
easier to accept in terms of fuel supply. A shift to oil, however, will not provide as much
benefit as a shift to gas and for this reason is considered to be only minimally plausible at
best. A shift, if it occurs at all, will likely be in the area of peaking facilities.
3.4.14 The coal-fired BTU load shifted to solar and wind power will be zero.
No significant shift in coal-fired utility base to wind or solar power in the absence
of policy initiatives is envisioned. The wind resource in Kentucky is relatively poor, and
the economics of solar electricity are projected to preclude its use on a large scale unless
compensating policies are put in place.63
3.4.15 Use of biomass for power and heat will increase by 10 percent.
It is anticipated that the use of biomass such as sawdust and wood residues will
increase somewhat in the wood products industry. Meyers and Lyons assumed that
biomass would provide 25 percent of the needed power for developing wood processing
industries, food industries, and some heavy industries as well.64
3.4.16 Coal production increases at an annual rate of 0.5 percent.
The major factors contributing to an increase in coal production are the expanding
economy and the anticipated restructuring of the electric utility industry. An increase in
the use of coal as a chemical feedstock is also probable. For these reasons, coal
production is assumed to increase by 15 percent by the year 2020. Meyers and Lyons
suggest otherwise citing improved efficiency in the generation of electricity and
restrictions due to global warming.65
62 State Workbook: Methodologies for Estimating Greenhouse Emissions, US EPA., Policy, Planning and
Evaluation, EPA 230-B-95-001, Revised January 1995, pp. 1-11.
63 Conner, Glen, Snow, Richard K. and Mary M. Snow, Summarization of Kentucky Wind Data; Kentucky
Division of Energy Memorandum of Agreement No. D 678; Kentucky Climate Center, Western Kentucky
University, Bowling Green, Kentucky, June 1993.
64 Ibid., Meyers and Lyons, p. 37.
65 Ibid., Meyers and Lyons, p. 37.
45
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3.4.17 Emissions due to fertilizer applications drops by 10 percent.
It is anticipated that tobacco production will drop in the future, perhaps by as
much as 50 percent by 2025. Tobacco, a major cash crop for Kentucky, is also a major
user of fertilizer. Other changes that would affect fertilizer application are improvements
derived from current research directed toward reduction in the application of chemicals in
agriculture. In addition, it is probable that the current trend in loss of farm acreage to
urban development will also continue in the future. Selection of a 10 percent reduction
figure thus appears quite reasonable.
3.4.18 Emissions produced by livestock manure will drop by 10 percent.
Manure management, especially that associated with large industrial farms, will
likely be regulated more so than today. It is probable that emissions due to manure
systems will drop. A figure of 10 percent has been taken to reflect this belief. The
regulatory changes most likely to come are those associated with water treatment
systems, stream pollution, and odor control.
Farm animals also produce a small amount of methane. These have been
accounted for in the baseline scenario on the basis of population only. No technological
change could be found which could reasonably be expected to affect this parameter.
3.4.19 Emissions due to landfills will drop by 10 percent.
The capture of gas (methane) at modern landfills either for flaring or some more
productive use is probable for the future. Older landfills are expected to stay as they are.
These considerations, along with the current practice of recycling in the major cities, and
given developments in reducing packaging waste, lead to an estimate of 10 percent
reduction for landfill gas emissions.
3.4.20 Emissions due to sewer systems drops by 10 percent.
It is anticipated that more septic tank systems will be phased out in the future. In
addition, it is highly likely that wastewater treatment systems will be placed under the
rule of Title V regulatory action. The is also a tendency now for consolidation of smaller
systems into larger facilities for the purpose of providing better treatment. A drop in
46
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emissions of 10 percent was chosen to account for these changes, although the change
could be greater.
3.4.21 Fugitive CFC emissions will drop by 20 percent.
It is probable that fugitive CFC emissions may be removed entirely by 2020, at
least in this country. International protocols are now in place regulating the manufacture
of these materials, and research to find replacements is intense.
3.4.22 Loss of HCFC-22 by product drops by 50 percent.
The major Kentucky manufacturer of chlorinated refrigerants, the E. I. duPont
company in Jefferson County, has already reduced its emissions rate of HCFC-22
byproducts as compared to 1990. This trend is expected to continue as production
processes are modernized and as research continues to develop replacement refrigerants
that have less impact on the atmosphere.
3.4.23 Coal mine capture of methane will be insignificant
Coal-bed methane capture is limited in Kentucky. Issues pertaining to ownership
of the gas rights involved, costs of production and quality of the product are all factors.
Some efforts have been made to address this problem but absent a major policy shift it is
deemed unlikely that any significant capture will take place in the foreseeable future.
3.4.24 The gross rate of carbon sequestration remains constant at the 1990 amount.
The 1990 Greenhouse Gas Inventory for Kentucky (Phase I report) estimated that
3.2 million tons of CO2 equivalent were absorbed by annual growth of Kentucky forests,
35.0 million tons from the growth of trees on abandoned lands - most of which is former
farmland that is returning to forest - and that 4.0 million tons are released from the
conversion of land as a result of mining, for a net absorption of 34.2 million tons of CO2
equivalent in 1990.66 If it is assumed that the major sequestration trends described in the
66 Spencer, H. T., Kentucky Greenhouse Gas Inventory: Estimated Emissions and Sinks for the Year 1990,
University of Louisville, Speed Scientific School under contract with The Kentucky Natural Resources and
Environmental Protection Cabinet using funds provided by the US EPA, Office of Policy, Planning and
Evaluation, Federal Assistance No. CX822849-01-0 (1996), Table 34, p.133.
47
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Phase I report remain in place, the gross rate of carbon sequestration projected for 2020
would be equal to that estimated for 1990 (35.2 + 3.2 = 38.2 million tons CO2 per year).
The amount of forest land cleared for mining is expected to increase slightly (see
section 3.4.16), along with the amount of land taken up by urbanization. The majority of
the land taken for urban growth in Kentucky between 1990 and 2020 will come from
farmland located along the major interstate corridors connecting Louisville-Lexington-
Cincinnati, and along the corridor south and west of Louisville along 1-65 (see Figure 1).
Crop and pasture lands do not contribute significantly to CO2 emissions from land
conversion, but forest lands do. Thus, in the base case described above it is anticipated
that emissions due to land conversion will increse slightly as a result of the slight increase
in coal mining.
The increase in emissions due to land conversion from mining is accounted for in
the policy initiatives spreadsheet. Emissions due to conversion for urban land are not, on
the assumption that most if not all of this property is coming from existing farm property.
Net emissions are determined in the spreadsheet by subtracting the 38,200,000 figure
noted above from gross emissions.
3.5 2020 Baseline Scenario Greenhouse Gas Projections
The output of the baseline scenario resulting from assumptions 3.4.1 through
3.4.24 is given in Table 6 along with the output for the 1990 base year. (The reader
should note that the significant digits shown in this table for emission projects are being
carried for accounting purpose only. The figures are not considered to be actually
accurate to the number of decimal places shown.) The distribution of emissions per
county for 1990, for the 2020 baseline, for the 2020 baseline normalized to 1990, and for
the 2020 baseline per capita are shown in Figures 3 through 6.
Figure 7 depicts the range of emissions for status quo, baseline and advanced
technological change scenarios. In the status quo scenario shown in Figure 7 population,
electricity production, and gross domestic product increase at baseline percentages to
force a dramatic rise in emissions. These changes occur in the absence of any
ameliorating technical change, including utility fuel switching to natural gas. The bottom
line in Figure 7 accomplishes the opposite task by doubling the percentages beneficial to
48
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emission reduction to give a scenario twice as effective as the baseline. In this last case,
fuel switching is also included.
Several features of the projections and data shown in Figures 3 through 7 are
notable:
1. Figures 3 and 4 suggest that the distribution of emissions per county will remain
essentially the same in going from 1990 to the 2020 baseline projections;
2. Figure 5, when compared to Figure 2, suggests a strong effect due to population shift
predicted for 2020, with intense emission changes coming along the major highway
corridors;
3. Figure 6 suggests a fairly constant emission rate per capita for the Commonwealth,
except for highly industrialized counties;
4. Figure 7 suggests a dramatic increase in emissions in the absence of technical change,
and also that significant reductions can be achieved by doubling the beneficial
percentages in the baseline scenario.
Figures 3 through 7 and Table 6 are organized as a group at the end of this section
for the sake of convenience to the reader.
Table 6. Projection of 2020 AD GHG Baseline Emissions Calculated on the Basis of
Changes Listed in Elements 3.4.1 through 3.4.24 Superimposed over Predicted
Population Changes for an Average Growth Scenario
Sector 1990 2020 30 yr.
Equivalent tons Equivalent tons percent
49
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CO2 per year
CO2 per year
change
Residential fossil fuels
5,950,574
5,987,943
0.60
Transportation fossil fuels
28,902,812
29,474,988
2.00
Commercial fossil fuels
2,773,997
4,103,356
47.90
Industrial fossil fuels
16,657,534
24,848,206
49.20
Utility coal use
76,449,370
109,215,955
42.90
Utility oil use
104,667
1,119,614
969.70
Utility natural gas use
108,807
6,425,543
5,805.50
Gas and oil production
8,593
9,861
14.80
Natural gas distribution
433,697
740,659
70.80
Oil refinery storage
16,388
18,806
14.80
Coal mine production
19,801,826
26,132,044
32.00
Chemical plant production
19,485,006
13,756,647
-29.40
Conversion of land
4,025,273
5,312,018
32.00
Farm animals
3,420,189
3,924,826
14.80
Manure management
827,839
854,985
3.30
Fertilizer application
761,757
786,736
3.30
Sewer systems
176,493
182,280
3.30
Landfill emissions
2,773,457
2,864,404
3.30
Fugitive CFCs
22,842,031
20,969,834
-8.20
Total as CO2 equivalent
205,520,310
256,728,755
24.90
Carbon sequestration
(-38,200,000)
(-38,200,000)
0.00
Net CO2 equivalent
167,320,310
218,528,755
30.60
50
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Figure 3. 1990 Base Year Emission Rates in Tons C02 per Year
The base year (1990) emission rates per county were estimated in the Kentucky Phase I
project completed in May 1995. JLs noted in the report text, the master spreadsheet used herein in
Phase II was developed from the Phase I equation base. These functions were taken by and large
from the standard EPA Workbook: Methodologies for Estimating Greenhouse Gas Emissions,
EPA 230-B-95-001, January 1996. The distribution of emissions by county shown in Figure 3
are provided on a logarithmic scale, demonstrating once again the wide range in emission rates
per county. These emissions are largely population driven, but also are influenced by the location
of industry, coal-fired electricity generation stations and by the locations of active coal mining. In
addition, all but one of the counties generating in the range of10,000,000 tons per year either
hold a major highway, or, if not, at least border a county that does.
Climate Change Mitigation - Strategies for Kentucky
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Figure 4. 2020 Baseline Emission Rates in Tons C02 per Year
The 2020 projections show an additional four counties with emissions in the range of
J 0,000,000 tons per year as compared to the 1990 base year. In addition, one county (Carroll) is
added at the range of10,000,000 to 100,000,000 tons per year. All new counties in the high
production group hold a major highway.
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Figure 5. 2020 Baseline Emission Rates Normalized to 1990 Base Year
The dichromatic presentation in Figure 5 reveals a pattern of growth in emissions
favoring the more developed and industrialized regions of the state, particularly in the triangle
formed by the major highways connecting Louisville, Lexington and Covington (Cincinnati).
Approximately half of the Commonwealth's counties, including those of the eastern coalfield
and areas dominated by agriculture, show only modest increases in emissions. Some, a total of
17, show no increase at all, or an actual drop in output.
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Figure 6. 1990 Base Year Emission Rates per Capita
Emission rates per person are provided on a county basis in Figure 6 for the 1990 base
year, the last year for which actual census data is available. The results are revealing in that thev
show that per capita, the counties show remarkable similarity. Only those counties with active
mining, coal-fired utilities and heavy industry stand out. Only six out of the one hundred and
twenty Kentucky counties stand out as producing more than 200 tons per year per person.
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Figure 7. Scenario Comparisons for Greenhouse Gas Emission Rates: 1990 to
2020
The dotted line traced across the bottom of Figure 7 shows the 1990 base year emission
rate. This rate has been suggested as the target value to stay even with, if not below. The next
line up (blue) provides the rates of production for a scenario in which all beneficial assumptions
described in section 3.4.1 to 3.4.23 ha\>e been doubled. This results in an emissions rate in 2020
15 percent over the 1990 le\'el The middle line (green) indicates the increase expected for the
3.4.1 to 3.4.23 baseline assumptions as they stand. This results in an emissions rate in 2020 26
percent over the 1990 level. The top line (red) demonstrates the impact of a status quo scenario.
In this scenario there is no fuel switching in the utility industry, and no improvement in end use for
electrical power or fossil fuels. This scenario suggest a 37 percent increase in emissions.
Greenhouse Gas Net Emmaiiwi Rate* wrth 10, 20.40 and Percent Shift from Coal to Gas
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55
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3.6 Comparison of the Phase II Baseline to Other Studies
Meyers and Lyons project a 9 percent increase in CO2 emissions between 1995
and 2025 assuming a 5 percent population increase and applying the considerations of the
restructured baseline scenario discussed above.67 Application of a 5 percent increase in
population to the baseline projections for the Kentucky Phase II study gives a 8.0 percent
increase through for 1990 to 2020 which is in reasonable agreement considering the
nature of the projections and assumptions used. Indeed, it appears that the two studies
essentially reflect the same outcome in terms of percent of increase even though they use
completely different means of calculations.
The actual amount of CO2 estimated by the two studies are also appear to be in
reasonable agreement. Meyers and Lyons projected CO2 emissions of 296 megatons for
2025 for their restructured scenario. The Kentucky Phase II project estimate for 2020 is
258 megatons for a 15 percent population increase and assuming a 10 percent shift to
natural gas-coal gas in the utility sector to give a base of 89 percent coal, 9 percent
natural gas-coal gas, 1 percent oil and 0.2 percent hydro. The Kentucky Phase II estimate
in the absence of a coal to gas-oil shift was found to be 263 megatons for a 15 population
percent increase.
The rate of increase in carbon emissions for 1994 to 2015 is shown in Figure 8 for
the base case, the base case with a doubling of benefits, the technical no-change scenario,
and for the increase projected nationally by the EIA taking restructuring into account (see
Table 6). Taken together, it is fair to say that the figures developed for the Kentucky
Phase II project compare favorably with what might be expected on the basis of national
estimates. If anything, the Phase II projections suggest a slightly lower growth potential
for Kentucky than the national figures but the differences are not large.
67 Ibid., Meyers and Lyons, Table 10.,p. 37.
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Figure 8. Comparison of Phase II Projections for Carbon Emissions to
National EI A Projections
The Figure indicates that the scenario without technical change or benefits comes closer
to the national figures that the Phase II base case or base case with a doubling of benefits.
Sr*«nhou»« Gas Gross Emission Rates:! 990 to 2020
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4. ADVANCES IN EFFICIENCY OF ENERGY USE
Estimates vary as to how much the developed countries can cut energy
consumption. Smil proposes that a reduction of one-third is possible over the next
generation among the world's more affluent societies, and one-half by 2050.68 A
reduction of one-third in energy consumption, if accomplished in Kentucky over the next
30 years, would have a significant impact on greenhouse gas emissions. The
technological advances that could make this possible are briefly reviewed below.
4.1 Methods for reducing the demand for electricity in the residential sector
The principal uses of electricity in the residential sector are for heating, cooling
and appliances. A wide range of energy saving techniques exist, many of which both
enhance the resale value of a private home and, at the same time, reduce the cost of home
operation. Energy costs for a home can exceed the mortgage if not managed wisely.
Fortunately, many improvements can be achieved through education, planning,
proper maintenance and wise purchase of energy-efficient appliances. The listing below
provides some obvious examples, and all of these have the potential of paying for
themselves.
4.1.1 Lighting systems
Approximately 15 percent of the electricity used in a private home is for
lighting.69 A sizeable fraction of the electricity used for lighting, however, is lost as
waste heat or through poor room lighting design. A number of new lighting systems are
now available. Compact fluorescent lights are 3 to 4 times more efficient than regular
incandescent lights and these last many times longer. Many of these lighting systems,
also known as "green lights" because of their environmentally favorable ratings, will fit
into a regular incandescent socket and produce light of the same or better quality.
Lighting plans for a private home are also effective in reducing the waste of
electricity. Oversized outdoor lights can be replaced with smaller 50-watt reflector
68 Cycles of Life: Civilization and the Biosphere by Vaclav Smil, Scientific American Library, 1996, p. 198.
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systems. Night lights can be reduced to 4 to 7-watt bulbs. Lighting zones can be
developed in the home to concentrate lighting in work areas while leaving areas less used
with reduced illumination. Light-colored walls and furnishings also reduce the demand
for lighting.
A number of automatic cut-off systems such as motion detectors, timers and
photocells are now available to sense when a lighted space is not in use. These systems
turn lights off when demand drops which is especially valuable for outside lighting
systems.
4.1.2 Home appliances
The balance of electricity used in the private home is used for appliances, for
example; clothes washers, televisions, computers, refrigerators and ovens. Electricity in
this sector comprises 20 percent of the total energy used in the home70 This demand can
be effectively reduced, especially for air conditioners and hot water heaters.
Average maximum temperatures in July in Kentucky range from 90 to 94 °F in
the far western part of the state to 80° to 84°F in the east. The average maximum value
for this month ranges from 85° to 89° F over most of the central region. Mean
temperatures for July range from 80° to 81°F in the west to 74° to 75 °F in the east with
the central region ranging from 78 to 79 °F71 A thermostat controlling the home air
conditioner set in the range of 78 °F which is just below the regional average for most of
the state as compared to a more typical 72° F could save as much as 40 percent of the
energy cost for cooling. Timely maintenance of the system will further improve its
efficiency of operation. Judicious choice of on-off cycles for room air conditioners are of
benefit as well, as are fan speed settings and variations in air circulation systems.
Insulation, caulking and weather stripping are also of obvious benefit. These are
discussed below in the section dealing with reduction of residential fuel use.
Hot water heaters, if electrically operated, are significant users of energy.
Temperature settings in the range of 140° F are typical of a newly installed hot water
69 Tips for Energy Savers, U. S. Department of Energy, DOE/CE-0231, p. 18 (1995).
70 Ibid, DOE/CE-0231, p. 20.
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heater. A setting of 120° F, however, is adequate in most cases and should be kept at that
level if possible. As much as 18 percent of the energy used can be saved in this way.
Elimination of leaky faucets, wise management of dishwashers and of washing machines,
and proper maintenance are also reasonable ways of reducing waste of energy.
The Department of Energy tests appliances for efficiency and the Federal Trade
Commission develops labels for these items accordingly. The labels contain valuable
information about the energy use of the equipment and should be studied carefully before
a purchase is made. Energy use is measured in either dollars spent per year for operation,
on in Energy Efficiency Ratings (EER values). The higher the EER value the better the
appliance. The differences can be highly significant. For example, a central air system
rated with an EER value of 10 will use 50 percent more electricity than a unit rated at
15.72
4.1.3 Policy initiatives for reducing residential demand for electricity.
A number of policy initiatives are available to facilitate home energy savings.
Some of these are specific for the conservation of electricity; others provide benefits in
several areas. Many are already in operation in the state. Those considered to be the
most beneficial are listed below.
4.1.3.1 Education programs to provide information on electricity savings
Education programs can be an effective means of altering the behavior patterns
and life styles that lead to energy waste. Programs showing the way to cost savings are
the obvious ways of developing this area. The programs can be offered through a wide
range of agencies, and they should be designed to reach all segments of the
Commonwealth's population. Education programs take some time to take effect, but once
in place and operational, they should be an effective and long lasting means of reducing
greenhouse gas emissions.
71 University of Kentucky College of Agriculture, Agricultural Weather Center, Department of Biosystems
and Agricultural Engineering, http://wwwagwx.ca.uky.edu/ down loaded July 15, 1997, 0930 EST
12 Ibid, DOE/CE-0231, p. 21.
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4.1.3.2 Tax incentives for residential electricity savings
Sales taxes incentives for appliances with high EER values as compared to low
could prove beneficial in reducing the residential demand for electricity. In addition,
income tax deductions could be granted for the cost of retrofitting existing homes to
achieve more energy-efficient systems. Income tax deductions could also be developed
for homeowners who show a reduction in energy use.
4.1.3.3 Utility support for reduction in residential use of electricity
In addition to tax incentives, it is also possible that the region's utilities could
provide incentives as well through demand side management (DSM) programs._These
incentives might take the form of rebates or low-cost financing for the purchase of
energy-efficient appliances, installation of devices that control the timing of certain
appliances' operation, assistance in upgrading the efficiency of older homes or those
whose residents are poor, and other programs. Unfortunately, such programs are
becoming less common as utility restructuring approaches.
4.1.3.4 Potential savings in the use of residential electricity
Policy initiatives leading to significant savings in residential use of electricity
will in time translate into a reduction in the increase in electricity production set at 35
percent for the baseline projections. It is reasonable to assume that through tax
incentives, through the update of building codes, through educational programs, and
through utility based incentives a concerted effort in this area could reduce the residential
demand for electricity, but it is impossible to estimate the exact effect that this reduction
will have. Utilities may well find it quite profitable to sell the electricity saved on other
markets, a possibility that will be enhanced with deregulation. Still it appears reasonable
to assume that some reduction in residential use of electricity will result take place. A 10
percent drop in addition to the 10 percent baseline reduction per year through the year
2020 would result in a savings of 800,000 tons of CO2.
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4.2 Methods for reducing fuel use in the residential sector.
Residential fuel use is concentrated in three critical areas: home heating, cooking,
and the operation of hot water heaters. Heating systems are the principal users and thus
offer the most benefits in terms of potential savings.
4.2.1 Home heating systems
Considerable savings in home heating can be achieved by fairly simple
procedures, many of which are currently practiced by a portion of the population. Not
turning on the heat until necessary is one option, along with keeping the thermostat at a
temperature lower than that of historic practice. Proper maintenance of heating
equipment and air circulation systems is also of benefit. Purchase of a more energy-
efficient furnace, or of a heat pump in place of an electric heating system, will likely
provide the most savings. Some modern gas furnaces transfer as much as 95 percent of
the available combustion heat from natural gas. Similar efficiency figures for older
systems vary from 50 to 75 percent.
Home insulation, caulking and weather-stripping are very effective means of
achieving energy savings. The northern and central part of the state is listed as having
mean annual heating degree day totals in the range of 4,500 to 5,000. The portion of the
state from the central zone to the south has heating degree day totals in the range of 4,500
to 4000. A thickness of fiberglass batts, mineral fiber or cellulose fiber to give R-values
of 38 is recommended for ceilings below ventilated attics for zones in the 4,000 to 5,000
heating degree totals for homes heated by natural gas, oil or by a heat pump. Insulation
thickness to give R-values of 19 are recommended for floors over unheated basements
and crawl spaces, R-l 1 for exterior walls. Few homes in Kentucky, especially those
constructed prior to modern building codes, meet these standards.
Retrofitting, or weatherizing, for energy savings by caulking and weather-
stripping can be of tremendous benefit. Leaks of warm air and intrusions of cold air from
the outside in homes that have not been weatherized can account for 30 to 40 percent of
the heat lost. Thus, approximately one-third of the heating cost is wasted for the home
that has not been weatherized. Caulking, especially around window frames, doors, pass-
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through plumbing and wiring, and along the major joints can reduce this loss by a half or
more.
The construction of new homes built to modern codes or to more efficient designs
can show dramatic improvements in energy end-use efficiency. Super-insulated homes,
homes where insulation and construction techniques meet to achieve a truly tight system,
can be heated in even the coldest climates for as little as $100 per year.73 Air-to-air heat
exchangers are advised for super insulated homes to provide proper ventilation. This
technology is readily available.74
Guidelines for energy-efficient homes in Kentucky, distributed by the Kentucky
Division of Energy, suggest insulation appropriate for the 4,000 - 5,000 range in heating
degree day totals, double-glazed windows, longer east-west ridge to optimize solar
benefits, air-vapor barriers on the exterior walls and efficient, modern heating and
cooling systems. Homes built to these standards, while not in the super-insulated
category, can still save sizable amounts of fuel and cooling costs. The range of heating
cost versus conventional housing suggest a 50 to 75 percent savings. Cooling can be
obtained in these houses for an annual cost of as little as $100 per 2,000 square feet of
living space.75
Solar homes are not prevalent in Kentucky, but homes constructed with the
energy-efficient design features typical of solar homes can be constructed here. The
benefits derived through encouraging solar based construction in the Commonwealth
could be significant in time if undertaken with some planning, support and determination.
4.2.2 Gas-fired home hot water heaters
The same factors discussed above for electric hot water heaters would apply as
well to gas-fired systems. These are maintenance, lower operating temperatures and the
repair of system leaks. In addition, gas-fired hot water heaters and gas-fired furnace
systems offer the possibility of optimizing the flow and availability of combustion air.
73 Corbett, R., Hansen, W. and Jon Sesso, Super Insulation: A Housing Trend for the 1980's, National
Center for Appropriate Technology (NCAT), Butte, MT., pp 1 (1984).
74 Heat Recovery Ventilation for Housing: Air-to-Air Heat Exchangers, NCAT-DOE/CE15095-9, (1984).
75 Energy Efficient Home Plans, Kentucky Energy Cabinet, Division of Alternate Energy, Lexington, KY.,
(1987). [The Kentucky Energy Cabinet is now designated as the Department for Natural Resources,
Division of Energy, 663 Teton Trail, Frankfort, Kentucky.]
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Optimization of the combustion process also serves to make the home safer by reducing
the chance that hazardous combustion products will accumulate.
Savings from combustion air optimization are generally site-specific. Reduction
in fuel demand on the order of 8 to 10 percent have been recorded for the region using
one of several methods.76
4.2.3 Gas-fired cooking stoves.
A number of ways to save energy in cooking apply to electric as well as gas-fired
systems. Most of these are self-evident, such as matching the pan and heating element
size
and heating water in closed rather than open containers. General cleanliness and
maintenance are also important.
Gas stoves and ovens are also available now with electronic ignition systems in
the place of pilot lights. These can reduce cooking gas use by as much as 40 to 50
percent for top burners.77
4.2.4 Policy initiatives for reducing residential demand for fuels.
Policy initiatives designed to promote improved efficiency in use of residential
electricity apply to some degree to conserving fuel use. Insulation benefits both needs
particularly. Others have a similar synergistic effect. For example, a super-insulated
house would by design require optimization of combustion air for health purposes. It is
probable, given these sorts of realities and relationships, that one set of well chosen
initiatives may well be found to serve all causes in this area.
4.2.4.1 Policy initiatives to conserve residential heating fuels through education
Well designed educational programs are probably among the more cost-effective
means of achieving the goal of significantly reducing fuel use. Such programs, if
76 Introducing Supplemental Combustion Air to Gas Fired Home Appliances, NCAT-DOE/CE/15095-7, pp.
26, (1983).
77 Ibid, DOE/CE-0231, pp. 12.
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properly funded and if supported by a wide range of government agencies, could be very
beneficial.
These programs would need to apply to a large segment of the population ranging from
urban to rural settings. The goal of the program would be to develop a populace that
would support retrofit of older homes, and support payment of the additional first cost of
new homes with better designs. Properly designed highly efficient new homes can be
built at an incremental cost of zero to 4 percent compared to conventional construction
methods.
4.2.4.2 Policy initiatives to conserve residential heating fuels through tax incentives
Tax incentives, for such as new home construction and for purchase of energy-
efficient appliances, have a good deal to offer for conserving residential fuels. New
homes with new appliances use only a fraction of the energy of older housing.
Replacement of older housing, or extensive retrofit, is possibly the best option available
in this sector.
4.2.4.3 Initiatives to conserve residential fuels through changes in building codes
The population of Kentucky is projected to grow by as much as 15 percent
through 2020, primarily along the major highway corridors connecting Lexington,
Cincinnati, Louisville and Bowling Green. A policy initiative designed to improve
housing built for this population would be of obvious benefit for all of the reasons cited
above.
Building codes that include energy end-use efficiency requirements can be one of
the most cost-effective ways to achieve long-lasting efficiency improvements, but only if
the codes are widely observed and enforced. Policies and programs that extend to the
application of building energy codes across the Commonwealth and provide training and
technical assistance for code officials could have major impacts on residential energy use
in the long run.
4.2.4.4 Potential savings in the use of residential fuels
The baseline scenario assumes a reduction in use of residential fuels by 10 percent
in the absence of any additional policy initiatives. The application of educational
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programs, tax incentives and modification and enforcement of building codes will no
doubt improve on this. Ultimately, such incentives could provide at least a doubling of
the 10 percent reduction figure, if not more. Such a reduction would provide a savings of
700,000 tons CO2 per year.
4.3 Methods for reducing the demand for electricity in the commercial sector
The commercial sector includes a wide range of establishments ranging from
multi-million dollar holding and insurance companies to small, family-owned retail
businesses. Areas in which electricity can be quickly and conveniently saved in these
establishments may be found in office design strategies, building construction (if a new
facility) and through the purchase of energy efficient appliances.
Municipalities are also included in the commercial sector. These represent a
significant portion of the demand, and since they are centrally controlled by well
identified governmental bodies, they offer a significant opportunity for policy-driven
initiatives.
4.4 Methods for enhancing the efficiency for fuel use in the commercial sector
Fuel use in the commercial sector is mostly for the purpose of providing building
heat. Lesser amounts are used for cooking fuels and for hot water heaters. Thus, as in
the case for conservation of electricity, building construction and fundamental techniques
for conservation apply. In this case, fuel switching may also apply where coal is still in
use.
As mentioned above, municipalities are included in this sector. Fleet operations
are a significant component. Because of the location of controlling systems, it may be
easier to develop strategies for fleet operations than for vehicles in general.
4.5 Methods for reducing light industrial demand for electricity
Light industries include smaller manufacturing facilities. These represent a
possible major growth sector for the Commonwealth's future and thus offer a unique
opportunity for development of mitigation strategies. Most new plants of this type are
expected to locate along the major highway corridors already noted in Figures 2.
Strategies for conserving electricity, beyond those already noted as common to all
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sectors, will likely be unique to each plant. Here, as in most industrial settings, it is likely
that individual energy audits will be necessary.
4.6 Methods for enhancing the efficiency of fuel use in light industries
Fuel use in light industries will be primarily for building heat. Since building
design may well be unique to the manufacturing operation, analysis may also depend on
individual energy audits.
4.7 Methods for reducing the demand for electricity in heavy industry
Heavy and light industry combined easily command 50 percent of the electricity
used in the Commonwealth of Kentucky. Here again, incentives and strategies leading to
energy management audits and action plans may prove beneficial.
4.8 Methods for enhancing the efficiency of fuel use in heavy industry
Fuels are used in heavy industries for a variety of purposes in addition to heating
buildings. The same techniques for conservation mentioned above apply here, as do
strategies encouraging more efficient use.
Heavy and light industries also must meet the requirements of the Clean Air Act
Title V permitting. This requirement leads to energy and materials management audits
collectively bringing about some reductions in emissions. Strategies encouraging these
policies may well prove beneficial, particularly in reducing VOC emissions.
The heavy industrial sector, which includes the region's utilities, is an important
group for which to develop strategies. These strategies include a wide range of
incentives, including those in support of fuel switching, improvement in energy end-use
efficiencies and CO2 removal and scrubbing systems, to name a few.
4.9 Methods for enhancing the efficiency of liquid fuel use in transportation
The strategies available to reduce transportation fuel use may be divided into two
broad categories: strategies leading to increased ridership (car pools, company bus
transportation and mass transit systems) and strategies that encourage more efficient
engine operation, including those in support of combined fuel cycles (fuel cells,
electrically driven and alternate fuel internal combustion engines). This quickly becomes
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a complex area of study involving the interactions between industrial and commercial
establishments and between government and the private citizen. For example, tax
incentives favoring companies that encourage car pools would immediately involve all of
these entities.
4.10 Methods for reducing transportation emissions per unit of fuel used
Consideration is given here to incentives that lead to more efficient operation of
family automobiles and fleet vehicles subject to emissions testing programs. These
programs are directed at reducing photochemical smog in populated areas (and thus
ozone), but have the secondary effect of reducing greenhouse gases as well. Here fuel
switching and development of alternate fuels may become important, as will the
marketing of all-electric vehicles. It is interesting to note that as of the time of this
report, there are no recharging stations located in Kentucky for residential electric
vehicles.
4.11 Methods for reducing fugitive CFC emissions
Developments in production of alternate refrigeration cycles are expected to
significantly alter the way in which CFC-like compounds are used in the future.
Incentives to purchase more efficient systems and to utilize more fresh foods could prove
important.
Building codes and energy conservation plans that result in less use of air-
conditioning will also benefit CFC reduction, as will elimination of some industrial
practices (/'.e.,foam blowing).
4.12 Methods for reducing emissions of methane due to coal mining
The business of methane capture and utilization presents some fairly fractious
issues to overcome. The main issues are ownership and availability—key questions for
which it seems we seldom have answers.78 Ownership is a particularly difficult issue in
78 Personal communication from Stephen T. Blackburn, Operations Manager and Attorney for Black
Warrior Methane Corporation, 13849 Highway 216, Brookwood, AL 35444. Mr. Blackburn is both an
attorney and a registered engineer.
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that it involves conflicts over mineral rights, surface rights, and rights, both supposed and
real, to gas sources without definite boundaries. As a result, coal-bed resources are not
well developed in Kentucky. However, it is highly probable that reserves do exist in
Kentucky's coal fields sufficient to make coal-bed methane capture a suitable mitigation
strategy to develop.
Oil and gas production associated with coal beds has not been developed in the
Appalachian Basin as well as in other locations of the U. S., or as well as the coal
resources themselves. As a result, some large measure of this valuable resource is
emitted to the atmosphere during the normal course of mining.
We have less readily available information on potential gas (and oil) bearing coal
formations. Fortunately, this situation is soon to be remedied through efforts of the West
Virginia University Research Corporation's Appalachian Gas Atlas Project - A Data
Base for Independent Producers?9 It should thus be anticipated that strategies may in
time be developed to benefit this area.
4.13 Methods for reducing emissions due to bulk chemical manufacture
Some industries producing bulk chemicals with significant emissions of
greenhouse gases were identified during Phase I of this study. These were for the
manufacture of lime, processing of aluminum and the production of CFCs. In addition,
the manufacture of a number of other chemicals identified as possible greenhouse gases
was cataloged on a county level.
Of these, the manufacture of CFCs proved to be the most significant as a result of
HCFC-22 byproduct release. The newly amended Clean Air Act and Title V permitting
can be expected to assist in reducing emissions from this type of source. In addition,
some of the major producers are already involved in developing greenhouse gas reduction
action plans under a municipal program based in Louisville and Jefferson County.
79 West Virginia University Research Corporation, Appalachian Gas Atlas Project - A Data Base for
Independent Producers, Project Contacts: (1) D. G. Patchen, WKU Research Corporation, Morgantown,
WV and (2) H. D. Shoemaker, DOE, Morgantown Energy Technology Center:
hhtp://www.metc.doe.gov/projfact/fuels/gasatlas.html.
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4.14 Methods for reducing emissions due to fertilizer application
Reductions in the rate of chemical application, including that for fertilizer, have
been the subject of considerable research over the past decade. Some of this work has
found application in the field and some farming techniques are now being used which do
require less fertilizer.
Replacement of tobacco as a cash crop may also have a significant effect on
agricultural emissions if new crops can be found that require less chemical treatment.
This is probable given that tobacco does require a higher rate of fertilizer application than
most other farm crops.
4.15 Methods for reducing emissions from manure management
Manure management systems, especially those for large industrial farms, offer
some opportunity for reductions in methane emissions. Application of some aspect of the
Kentucky Pollution Discharge Elimination System permitting system (KPDES) may be
more important in this area. The Commonwealth has held primacy for enforcement in
the this area since the early 1980's. At this time a well developed KPDES permitting
program is in place which is now effectively managed by the Division of Water.
Policy initiatives and incentives designed for stream recovery may be just as
effective in reducing emissions from manure management systems as any that can be
found. One possibility would be to support construction and operation of aerobic waste
treatment systems or, if anaerobic, for the capture of the methane produced. Emergency
regulations for swine feeding operations were been signed into law for the
Commonwealth of Kentucky on April 17, 1998. A public hearing on the Notice of Intent
to promulgate the ordinary regulations has been set for June 25, 1998 in Frankfort,
Kentucky. It is presumed that these regulations will be put into operation soon after, and
that steam systems and air quality will benefit as a result.80
US EPA also sponsors a ruminant livestock methane program. This program was
created in 1993 and its purpose is to encourage application of inexpensive ways of
80 More details on the emergency swine regulations may be obtained from
http ://water. nr. state, ky .us/dow/swineregs. htm.
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reducing livestock methane emissions through feeding, grazing strategies, dieting
methods, animal health, breeding and genetics.81
4.16 Methods for reducing emissions from landfills
Design and operational parameters for new landfills can be set to reduce methane
emissions. Older systems, especially those without definite boundaries and known
histories, offer little opportunity for techniques to reduce methane emissions. In addition,
municipal recycling systems offer an opportunity to reduce the quantity of material being
landfilled.
Strategies that identify major metropolitan areas may be expected to be of benefit
here. These areas are expected to develop further in the future, particularly along major
highway corridors. This may in time require the development of new waste treatment
sites and, if so, the opportunity exists to develop methane capture or flare systems for
these systems before they go into operation.
It is important to note here the State is a participant in the voluntary Landfill
Methane Outreach program supported by US EPA. This program involves the Natural
Resources and Environmental Protection Cabinet and currently enrolls the Divisions of
Energy, Waste Management and Air Quality. Incentives developed in response to this
ongoing program would be an obvious place to start.
4.17 Methods for reducing emissions from sewer systems
Sewer systems emit volatile organic hydrocarbons, some of which are greenhouse
gases, and methane. Improvement in plant operation and solids handling techniques can
reduce this problem. Here again, it is the design of newer plants that needs to be
considered.
Replacement of septic fields, a persistent problem in the Commonwealth of
Kentucky, would also be of benefit. Policies and incentives for formation of wastewater
treatment districts in more of the state's 120 counties would be of benefit here. At
present only a fraction of the state's counties have these agencies. As a consequence,
large segments of the population live without access to a wastewater plant. This in turn
81 More details on the US EPA ruminant livestock methane program may be obtained from
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requires the use of septic fields, a problem for public health, stream viability and
greenhouse gas emissions in the form of methane.
4.18 Methods for enhancing renewable energy conversion systems
Renewable energy conversion systems (solar and hydroelectric) have some role to
play in the reduction of greenhouse gases. It is doubtful that hydroelectric power systems
can be increased in the state, although some policy incentives may be found to support
those already in existence. Solar systems, however, do offer some opportunity. Policy
initiatives supporting the buy-back of excess electricity generated by solar electric
systems could be of significant benefit in encouraging the development of solar power
facilities in all sectors.
http://www.epa.gov./earthlr6/6xa/vplivest.htm.
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5. POTENTIAL FOR GHG EMISSION REDUCTIONS THROUGH
EXISTING ENERGY CONSERVATION PROGRAMS
A number of federal, state, and local programs have come into being in recent
years that should be considered as components of the Kentucky mitigation strategies
study. These include national and state pollution prevention programs, initiatives
designed to improve the efficiency of energy use, combined industry-city resource
conservation and pollution prevention programs, programs designed to enhance capture
of landfill gases, and others. The major programs currently operative in Kentucky are
outlined below.
5.1 Kentucky Division of Energy
The Kentucky Division of Energy (KDOE), a small office within the Natural
Resources and Environmental Protection Cabinet, has been promoting improved energy
end-use efficiency and alternate energy sources since the mid-1970s. The eleven-person
division administers ongoing energy end-use efficiency programs involving Kentucky's
residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors. In addition, it is the
Kentucky agency that had the lead in administering Phases I and II of the Kentucky
Greenhouse Gas Project under a grant from the US EPA. The following subsections
describe KDOE's ongoing programs and in part has been quoted directly from KDOE
materials providing details of the agency's current activities.82,83
5.1.1 Institutional Conservation Program (ICP)
KDOE has worked over the past twenty years to administer a grant program using
federal and state funds to enable hundreds of Kentucky schools and hospitals to make
energy retrofits. ICP was initiated by Congress in November of 1978 for the purpose of
82 More information about KDOE activities can be obtained from: Kentucky Division of Energy, 663 Teton
Trail, Frankort, KY 40601, (502) 564-7192.
83 Information detailing the KDOE activities were provided by Mr. Geoff Young, Assistant Director of
KDOE and manager of the Division's Alternate Energy Program. For more information contact the
Natural Resources and Environmental Protection Cabinet, Division of Energy, 663 Teton Trail, Frankfort,
KY 40601,1-502-564-7192; or in Kentucky, 1-800-282-0868.
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providing matching grant funds to public and private nonprofit schools and hospitals for
Energy Audits (EA), Technical Assistance (TA) and Energy Conservation Measures
(ECM). As of 1992 EA's had been completed in 1,812 buildings. This comprised 47
percent of the 3,841 eligible buildings. Of these, 1,683 were school buildings and 129
were hospitals. Another 718 schools have received TA benefits along with 65 hospitals.
ECMs have been completed on 558 eligible schools and hospitals.84
Actual savings in energy usage for completed projects range from 22 to 53
percent with an average of 32 percent.85 The average reduction in energy expense is 25
percent. Federal funding for the program, which was always less than the amount
needed, is now ending. There is a possibility that financing for energy end-use efficiency
measures will be provided to school systems and hospitals in the future by energy
services companies (ESCOs).86
5.1.2 Energy end-use efficiency in Government Buildings
KDOE and the Kentucky Finance and Administration Cabinet are cooperating in
a relatively recent initiative to boost efficiency in the approximately 50 million square
feet of space owned by state government, as well as to provide training to state building
operators in efficient operation and maintenance activities. Another initiatives to help
agencies enter into performance contracts with energy service companies to provide third
party financing for energy end-use efficiency measures.
It should be noted that legislation has previously been passed in support of
enabling the more efficient use of energy resources in Kentucky State government
buildings. At present however, funds have not been allotted to carry out this mandate.
5.1.3 Students Weatherization and Training (SWAT Jr.) Program
KDOE works with school systems throughout Kentucky to train teams of high
school students and a faculty adviser to perform energy audits in their school and propose
84 Noland, James H., ICP Program Manager; Energy Savings Documentation in Support of the Energy
Conservation in State Owned Buildings, Natural Resources and Environmental Protection Cabinet,
Department for Natural Resources, Division of Energy, 663 Teton Trail, Frankfort, KY 40602, March 18,
1992; p. 10-18.
85 Ibid., Noland, James H., p. 19-24.
86 Ibid., Noland, James H., p. 13.
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energy end-use efficiency measures to school administrators. The program has been well
received for its educational value as well as for the energy cost savings that can be put to
use for other school activities.
5.1.4 Demand Side Management (DSM)
For the past four years, KDOE has been involved with collaborative efforts at
three investor-owned utility companies in Kentucky: Louisville Gas and Electric
Company (LG&E), American Electric Power, and Cinergy. In all three cases,
representatives of customer groups have engaged in joint planning efforts with the utility
and KDOE to institute programs to help the utility's customers save energy and reduce
their energy expenses. In the commercial sector, most of the DSM programs to date have
focused on delivering energy audits but attention is increasingly focusing on methods to
increase the implementation of energy saving measures. Such methods include assistance
with financing, technical assistance, and, under certain conditions, cash rebates.
5.1.5 Alternate Energy Program
KDOE provides technical information to businesses and individuals in Kentucky
that want to make cost-effective use of biomass, solar, and other renewable energy
sources. The experiences gained over the years through a series of biomass and solar
energy demonstration projects will be made available to Rebuild America partners.
5.1.6 Other Energy Programs
KDOE is involved in a number of other small-scale efforts to promote the
efficient use of energy. These include the following:
(1) Supporting energy education in schools;
(2) Helping firms apply for federal funds to demonstrate energy-efficient and alternate
energy technologies;
(3) Facilitating the collection and recycling of used motor oil, saving energy at the
refinery;
(4) Assisting the Kentucky Division of Building Codes Enforcement in ensuring that
energy codes are met to the greatest extent possible and;
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(5) Helping the Kentucky Transportation Department publicize a system of carpools and
vanpools for commuters.
5.2 U. S. Department of Energy Industrial Assessment Centers
The U. S. Department of Energy supports 30 industrial assessment centers located
strategically throughout the United States. The principal grant holder for the Eastern
Division of the U. S. is the Office of Industrial Productivity and Energy Assessment
located at Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, Piscataway, NJ 08855-1179
(732) 445-5540; oipa@camp.rutgers.edu. The Industrial Assessment Center (IAC) for
the Kentucky region is located at the University of Louisville and may be reached at
(502) 852-7860; 01jcwatt@ulkyvm.louisville.edu. This center was established in January
1994.
IAC centers, as in the case of the one with Kentucky coverage, are located at
regional universities. These institutions provide faculty and students primarily from
engineering schools, for site visits and energy audit assessments. The Kentucky IAC is
associated with the Department of Chemical Engineering at the University of Louisville.
IAC centers focus their attention on small to medium sized manufacturing facilities in the
SICC code range 20-39. The U of L IAC covers western and central Kentucky and a
narrow corridor extending to Ashland; the U. of Dayton IAC covers northern Kentucky;
and the IAC at the U. of Tennessee in Knoxville covers southeastern Kentucky.
"Small to medium sized" refers to those companies with gross annual sales below
$75 million, with fewer than 500 employees, with annual utility bills more than $75,000
but less than $1.75 million, and without in-house professional staff to perform
assessments. Slightly more than half of the industries in the United States appear to fall
in this category.87 Ideally, the companies to benefit will be found within 150 miles of
the host campus.
University faculty-student teams conduct one-day site visits to initiate an energy
audit and assessment. A report is filed within 60 days of the visit detailing findings and
providing recommendations. The process is followed up by a phone call six to nine
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months later. Nationwide, the average annual cost savings realized per IAC assessment
would be $55,000 if the recommendations suggested were implemented.
5.3 Kentucky Pollution Prevention Center (KPPC)
Pollution prevention (P2) has been a focus of the Kentucky General Assembly
and the Executive Branch for a number of years. The current program is the outgrowth
of work initiated at the University of Louisville in the early 1980's.88 The program has
since grown to funding levels now approaching $900,000 per year and is expected to
expand further.89 The KPPC has a staff of ten and is managed by an eleven member
Board of Directors.
KPPC was enabled by an act of the Kentucky General Assembly to provide
advice to clients about waste-stream minimization. Waste-streams include those of
hazardous wastes, solid wastes, and emissions to air and water. The KPPC also provides
environmental training and has access to a new range of modern laboratories in which
applied research can be conducted in support of pollution prevention studies for
interested clients. The KPPC offers on-site technical assistance, P2 training and research.
In 1996 the KPPC technical staff completed 45 assessments and scheduled another 15.
Training programs attended by 2,900 employees industry and government were also
conducted along with a wide range of teleconferences. The KPPC downlinked 27
871994 U.S. Census statistics as cited in Hall, Rebecca Ann ; Assessment of Metal Roof and Wall Insulation
for Industrial Energy Conservation, Master of Engineering Thesis, Department of Mechanical Engineering,
December 1997, p.4.
88 The program was founded by Dr. Marvin Fleischman (U of L Chemical Engineering) in the early 1980s.
The KPPC Board is currently chaired by Mr. Ray Dailey of Westvaco Corporation. The current executive
director of KPPC is Mr. Cam Metcalf. Information concerning the KPPC may be obtained from: Kentucky
Pollution Prevention Center, University of Louisville, New Academic Building, Belknap Campus,
Louisville, KY 40292; (800) 334-8635; web site: http://www.louisville.edu/org/kppc.
89 Funding levels for 1996-1997 were as follows:
Hazardous Waste Assessment Fund$388,900
University General Fund $ 40,630
Pollution Prevention Incentives Grant $ 65,000
Environmental Justice Through P2 Grant $270,644
NIST P2T2 Contract $ 20,000
Solid Waste Initiatives in Kentucky Grant $ 88,500
Total $873,674
!996-1997Annual Report; Kentucky Pollution Prevention Center, University of Louisville, New Academic
Building, Belknap Campus, Louisville, KY 40292; (800) 334-8635; web site:
http ://www. louisville .edu/org/kppc.
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teleconferences in 1996-1997 for Kentucky industries. In addition, the KPPC initiated its
first national satellite teleconference with the help of the University of Louisville's
Television Service. A total of 150 hospitals and organizations viewed the program in 16
states. The center also provides extensive information resources and operates a web site
at address http://www.louuisville.edu/org/KPPC.
The KPPC maintains an active research program for industry, and consistently
seeks additional outside support from a variety of granting agencies. Funding from these
resources totaled $444,144 for the 1996-1997 period. The principal granting agency
supporting the KPPC has been U.S. EPA. Grants are in support of training, technical
assistance, development of pollution prevention incentives and the search for
environmental justice in West Louisville.
The KPPC, in response to local and national needs, will initiate work in the area
of greenhouse gas reduction in the late winter of 1998. Four half-day training workshops
will be offered for Louisville manufacturers showing them how to turn improved
efficiency in energy use into profit and increased productivity. Part of the advice and
technical assistance offered will be generic and part will be industry-specific. The
workshops are offered in association with Climate Wise, which is a joint EPA-
Department of Energy program.
Details sufficient to assess the tonnage of greenhouse gas removed so far as a
result KPPC activities are not available. Tracking in the future of energy savings and
waste reduction in areas where emissions are curtailed will likely be kept in the future for
planning and assessment of progress in this important area. The KPPC does adjust to the
needs of the times and is clearly doing so in this instance.
5.4 Climate Wise
Climate Wise is a government-industry partnership designed to "turn energy
efficiency and environmental performance into a corporate asset."90 The partnership is
jointly sponsored by U.S. DOE and U.S. EPA. Participants include major pharmaceutical
firms, aircraft manufacturers, breweries, and printers.
90 Climate Wisdom, An Update of Events, Actions, and Efforts of the Climate Wise Program, Spring-
Summer 1997, p.l
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Member companies have been involved with improving equipment and operating
processes within the company; utilizing more appropriate fuel types for various
applications; creating new and more efficient products; and, participating with other
similar pollution reduction and energy end-use efficiency programs.91 "By the year 2000,
Climate Wise companies will annually save more then $300 million and reduce more
than 20 million metric tons of carbon dioxide".
Climate Wise has recently begun a toll-free technical assistance Wise Line (1-800-
459-9473). Among the services offered on the Wise Line is help with reporting
greenhouse gas emissions and emission reductions under the Voluntary Reporting of
Greenhouse Gases Program (Climate Wise Action Plan Form EIA-1605).
During Summer of 1997, Climate Wise released Wise Rules for Industrial
Efficiency. The document includes guidelines for "estimating the energy, costs and
greenhouse gas emissions impacts...Focusing primarily on boilers, steam systems, and
compressed air systems, the Wise Rules are a compilation of best available industrial
energy efficiency data available".
Louisville, the state's largest city, has recently joined the Climate Wise Team.
The program management is currently recruiting new industrial and government agency
partners by showing how energy efficiency translates into pollution prevention, increased
productivity and cost reduction.
5.5 Landfill gas recovery programs
The Kentucky Natural Resources and Environmental Protection Cabinet has been
designated as a state ally in the U.S. EPA's Landfill Methane Outreach Program
(LMOP). The program was developed to encourage the use of landfill gas (methane) as
an energy resource. This is accomplished by minimizing informational and regulatory
barriers, and by promoting the environmental and economical benefits of using landfill
gas as an energy source. Twenty landfills in Kentucky are estimated by EPA to have the
potential to support economically viable gas-to-energy projects. Together these offer a
resource of 47.7 mmcf/day of methane with a generation potential of 76.5 MW.92
91 DOE/EE-0071 EPA 230-K-95-003, April 1997.
92 Ibid., candidate landfill profiles, leading page.
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Electricity generation, space heating and cooling, industrial processing, and vehicular
fuel are among the uses for landfill gas. The generating capacity of landfill gas systems
range between 0.5 and 4 MW electric.93
Estimates of the equivalent of CO2 emission reduction to come from these
operations if all twenty were developed with capture and usage systems vary depending
on which EPA document is cited. A recent report entitled Opportunities for Landfill Gas
Energy Recovery in Kentucky (EPA 430-B-97-033) provided data for an estimate of the
quantity of landfill gas (LFG) being emitted from Kentucky landfills in 1998.94 The
report estimates the amount of methane that could be harvested from the 20 landfills
which are considered to have the greatest potential for LFG-to-energy projects. In
addition, there are estimates of the quantity of CO2 emissions that would be offset by the
displacement of coal and oil fuel through the recovery and use of LFG.
There are presently no LFG-to-energy systems operating in Kentucky, although
LFG is being flared at two landfills, one of which is the state's largest.95 The sum of
methane potentially available in 1997 from the 20 candidate landfills identified by US
EPA is 4.9 million tons of equivalent CO2. Subtracting the quantity of methane that is
being flared yields 3.6 million tons of equivalent CO2. The emissions figure estimated
by Spencer for all landfills in the 1990 Kentucky Inventory was 2,773,997 tons per
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year.
5.6 US EPA Green Lights and Energy Star Buildings Programs
Green Lights is an EPA sponsored program which encourages the use of energy-
efficient lighting. The program descriptive documents indicate that participants can
realize average rates of return on their initial investment of 40 percent or more. They can
reduce their lighting electricity bill by more than half while maintaining and often
improving lighting quality.97 Green Lights includes over 2,400 participants nation-wide
93 Ibid., p. 1-3.
94 Ibid., candidate landfill profiles, leading page.
95 Opportunities for Landfill Gas Recovery in Kentucky, US EPA 430-B-97-033, September 1997, p. 1-2.
96 Spencer, H. T., Kentucky Greenhouse Gas Inventory: Estimated Emissions and Sinks for the Year 1990,
University of Louisville, Speed Scientific School under contract with The Kentucky Natural Resources and
Environmental Protection Cabinet using funds provided by the US EPA, Office of Policy, Planning and
Evaluation, Federal Assistance No. CX822849-01-0 (1996).
97 EPA 430-F-97-042.
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including corporations, federal, state, and local government agencies, health care
facilities, universities, hotels and restaurants.
EPA's Energy Star Buildings Program was created to "enable building owners to
achieve additional energy savings while lowering capital expenditures."98 The program,
like Green Lights, is strictly voluntary and targets those who operate and maintain
commercial and industrial buildings. Those who do participate lower energy costs by
promoting energy efficiency. EPA estimates that Energy Star Buildings participants can
reduce energy consumption by 40 percent, and can lower electricity bills by 35 percent.
Return from these activities in terms of reduction of CO2 emissions however, is
predicated on subsequent and corresponding reduction in electricity production. Nothing
is gained in terms of CO2 emission reductions if the electricity saved by one end-user is
simply picked up and used by another, unless the means of electricity generation itself is
likewise made more efficient.
Data was presented in Table 5 indicating the split in end-use of electricity among
the principal economic sectors. These divisions were: Industrial — 47 %; Commercial —
17%; Residential — 24%; Transportation — 0%; Transmission losses — 10%; and Export -
- 3%. The CO2 emissions associated with electricity generation for in the 1990 study was
76,449,370 tons per year, which constitutes 37 percent of the gross emissions for
Kentucky in that year." Green Lights and the Energy Stars Buildings program, if
brought to their maximum potential and if the savings were translated into a 35 percent
reduction in actual electricity production, could over a period of years reduce the
76,449,370 figure by a factor of [0.35 x (0.47 + 0.17)] x 76,449,370 = 17,124,659 tons
per year. This would be a significant reduction if, once again, it is assumed that the
electricity saved is not sold to other end-users.
5.7 Coalition for Environmentally Responsible Economics (CERES)
CERES is a coalition of "leading social investors, environmental groups, religious
organizations, public pension trustees and public interest groups" that endorses a ten
principle code of environmental ethics. The principles include: protection of the
98 EPA 430-F-97-042.
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biosphere, sustainable use of natural resources, reduction and disposal of wastes, energy
conservation, risk reduction, safe products and services, environmental restoration,
informing the public, management commitment, and annual audits and reports.
At its founding in 1989, a long-term agenda was adopted "to focus on various ways
investors could help implement environmentally and financially sound investment
policies." Coalition members include over 10 million people and represent over $150
billion in invested assets.100
The Louisville Jefferson County Metropolitan Sewer District has been very active
in the Louisville community in applying the CERES principles to its operations.
5.8 International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives (ICLEI)
ICLEI is an international association of local governments dedicated to the
solution of environmental problems through local action. Among the services and
products offered by this group are the following:
a) Consultant Network - a world-wide network of consultants is available.
b) Case Studies Series - summaries of innovative municipal practices with highlights of
successful environmental management highlights.
c) ICLEI Newsletter - a report on organizational activities and plans.
d) Special Publications - papers and project reports on specific areas of policy concern.
e) Referral Services - a network of "municipal professionals, experts, corporations, and
development agency staff who are ready to lend their expertise to problem
solutions.
f) Computer Conferencing - LEICOMM (Local Environmental Initiatives
Communications Systems) provides referral and other services via computer
communications.
g) International Training Center - provides curriculum development and world-wide
training.
One of ICLEI's successful ventures is the Cities for Climate Protection Campaign
(CCPC). Based upon the 1989 greenhouse gas reduction program in Toronto - a pledge
99 The 76,449,370 figure is for C02 emissions in Kentucky in 1990 due to combustion of bitumunious coal
by the Commonwealth's utilities.
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by that city to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the city by 20% below 1988 levels by
the year 2005 - ICLEI initiated the Campaign. "The Campaign enlists local governments
to develop targets, timelines and implementation strategies for climate protection."101 By
late 1997, 48 U.S. cities and counties representing 24.7 million people and 7% of U.S.
greenhouse gas emissions were participating in CCPC.
Each local government commits to climate protection action, sets a greenhouse
gas reduction target, and develops a local action plan to meet that target. Recommended
steps to meet that target include:
a) base year emissions analysis and forecast;
b) greenhouse gas emissions reduction target established;
c) local action plan or emission strategy created;
d) implementation of the plan by local government.
ICLEI has recently initiated a program in the Louisville Metropolitan area
through a grant assigned to the City of Louisville. Funding through this source and
others has helped support the Louisville Conservation Council (LRCC) in its effort to
coordinate efforts of the city government, Jefferson County government, the Kentucky
Pollution Prevention Center (KPPC), the Metropolitan Sewer District, the Louisville Gas
and Electric Company (LG&E), and several local industries including DuPont which, for
example, has pledged a 40 percent reduction in its energy consumption.
5.9 Programs in the Transportation Sector
Residents of the Commonwealth of Kentucky in 1990 registered 4,667,384
vehicles, collectively 1.2 vehicles for every man, woman and child in the State. These
included commercial vehicles, passenger cars, farm trucks, and motorcycles. The
greenhouse gas contribution from these vehicles estimated in the 1990 inventory was
28,982,812 tons of CO2 per year which comprised 14 percent of the total emissions
cataloged.
The Commonwealth does not have an organized program to specifically deal with
fuel conservation in the transportation sector. A vehicles emission testing program
100 Ceres Principles, informational brochure, January I, 1997.
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(VET) has been in operation in Jefferson County since 1984. This program is now well
advanced and requires that all passenger cars, light trucks (private and commercial), and
fleet vehicles be tested yearly for hydrocarbon and carbon monoxide emissions. Vehicles
are also inspected at the time of testing to insure that pollution prevention devices are in
place and functional. Vapor control at the pump was introduced through the program in
1995. The Louisville program was put in place to help reduce photochemical smog
levels over the city of Louisville. The VET program was initiated in response to the
Louisville and Jefferson County community being declared "non-attainment" for ozone, a
designation which grew to included 15 Kentucky counties by 1991. Nine of these were
removed from the list in 1995 but six remain. They are Boone, Kenton, and Campbell
counties in northern Kentucky; Jefferson County and portions of Bullitt and Oldham
counties. The state has subsequently submitted an ozone reduction plan to US EPA
which includes VET programs, reformulated gasoline (RFG), and vapor recovery
systems. As of 1995, RFG was required at pumps in Boone, Campbell, Kenton, and
Jefferson Counties, and in parts of Bullitt and Oldham Counties. A VET program will be
implemented for Boone, Kenton, and Campbell Counties.102
A number of commercial and industrial fleet operations have undertaken fuel
conservation measures on their own, as have some government agencies. The United
Parcel Service in Louisville and the Louisville Metropolitan Sewer District have
converted a number of vehicles from gasoline and diesel to CNG (compressed natural
gas). Over the past three years, the Kentucky Division of Fleet Management, which looks
after the State's motor pool, has purchased 250 vehicles capable of operating on any
mixture of gasoline and ethanol up to 85 percent ethanol. It is anticipated that another
140 vehicles will be purchased in the near future and the Division is working with the
Kentucky Corn Growers Association to establish ethanol refueling facilities in the
State.103
101 U.S. Communities Acting to Protect the Climate - A Report on the Achievements of ICLEI's Cities for
Climate Protection - U.S., November 1997 p. 2.
102 More details and updates on the topic of Kentucky's on-going efforts to achieve ozone attainment can be
found on the Division of Air Quality web page
[http://www.state.ky.us/agencies/nrepc/dep/daq/outreach/smog.html
103 Conservation Update, State Energy Programs, January 1997
[http://es.epa.gov/new/contacts/newsltrs/kyupdt/kyupdt.html]
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A total of 743,833 vehicles were registered in 1990 in the five counties with VET
programs, vapor recovery, and RFG at the pumps. These contributed an estimated
4,606,192 tons of CO2 in that year, which was 16 percent of the emissions coming from
the transportation sector. The degree to which this figure has been reduced through smog
reduction programs is not exactly known. However, the EPA target for the region is a 15
percent reduction in ozone generating emissions. If, as seems the case, this is achieved
through an improvement in engine efficiency, it seems reasonable to assume that CO2
emissions will likewise be reduced.
5.10 Kentucky NEED program
A Kentucky chapter of the National Energy Education Development (NEED)
Project began operating in 1994 and had gradually increased its level of activity since
then. The program provides unbiased information and well-designed curricula about
energy issues to students and teachers in trades 5-12. The materials and activities
emphasize cooperative learning ("Kids Teaching Kids") and have successfully raised the
level of students' understanding about energy. The energy impacts of educational
activities such as Project NEED are likely to be long-term in nature and difficult to
quantify, but they are nonetheless important.
5.11 Summary of Potential Benefits from Existing Energy Conservation Programs
Although a wide variety of energy efficiency and renewable energy programs
currently exists in Kentucky, they are operating at a relatively small scale. Unless the
resources devoted to such activities are increased, no additional energy savings are likely
to result by the year 2020 beyond those specified in the baseline assumptions ( see
Section 3.4). In other words, the existing energy-related programs being carried out in
Kentucky are estimated to contribute to the projected 10 percent improvement in energy
efficiency in the residential, transportation, commercial, and industrial sectors, but are not
projected to generate reductions in GHGs if maintained at their current levels. Additional
policies and programs would be needed in order to achieve GHG reductions beyond the
base case. Policy options designed to go beyond the base case are discussed in Chapters 6
and 7.
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6. POLICY OPTIONS FOR MITIGATING GREENHOUSE GAS
EMISSIONS
Policy options to reduce the emission of GHGs in Kentucky have been designed
to meet two criteria:
(1) The policies proposed for consideration must not be too costly. Indeed, wherever
possible, they should be designed to generate net benefits for the Commonwealth's
economy.
(2) The policies proposed for consideration must be flexible. It should be possible to
implement them on a small scale at first, to expand or intensify them over time, and to
adapt them as conditions change or as practical experience is gained.
Many of the policy options that follow are presented first in a relatively modest
form and then in a more intensified form. Taken together, the set of "modest" policy
options is designed to represent a comprehensive strategy that should not be very difficult
or costly to implement, and which is projected to provide a modest reduction in GHG
emissions compared to the base case projection. If it is determined that greater GHG
reductions are necessary in Kentucky, the more intensive policies may be considered,
individually or as a group, as supplements to the initial set of policies.
It is anticipated that mitigation policies with the potential for cost offset have the
best chance of working. This has already been shown in studies similar to this one.
Helme et al,104, for example, developed an analysis in 1993 focusing on American
Electric Power (AEP), one of the region's larger utilities. Their study conclusions were
reported as follows:
This study offers two very significant conclusions: (1) Flexibility will be a key
component of any legislative or regulatory efforts to significantly reduce CO2
levels while minimizing the cost of compliance; and (2) Offsets — both forest and
coal-bed methane recovery — when coupled with energy efficiency, offer the
greatest opportunity for meeting CO2 reduction levels in a least-cost way.
104 Helme, N., Popovich, M. G. and Gille, J., Cooling the Greenhouse Effect: Options and Costs for
Reducing C02 Emissions from the American Electric Power Company, Center for Clean Air Policy, 444
North Capitol Street, Suite 602, Washington, DC 20001, pp. 25 (1993).
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One may suggest that these things are, or should be, self evident. However, this
has not always been the case. Fixed target mitigation levels were initially the rule, and
seemingly at whatever the cost needed to be.105 What Helme et al. have stated in their
conclusions is that we have now gone beyond that point. What is needed instead is a
weave of self-supportive, flexible strategies. Emission reduction targets are useful in
developing these strategies in that they do provide a means of evaluation and comparison,
but they should not be considered to be sacrosanct.
The Iowa Greenhouse Gas Action Plan, issued in December, 1996, by the Center
for Global and Environmental Research and Public Policy at the University of Iowa,
presents a set of sixteen "Priority Options" that can be implemented relatively easily, and
a more ambitious program of "Maximum Feasible Reductions" that would require greater
effort and capital investment and would yield correspondingly greater GHG reductions
compared to the base case.
In the course of researching and assessing the policy options presented in this
report, it has become clear that no single policy initiative can generate major GHG
reductions by itself, i.e., there is no "magic bullet." A successful strategy must combine
many small actions taken by participants in all sectors of the Kentucky economy in a way
that adds up to make a significant impact.
6.1 Energy Efficiency Initiatives
Because the extraction and use of energy gives rise to such a large fraction of
Kentucky's total GHG emissions, many of the policy options proposed for consideration
are energy-related.106 This is generally consistent with the Climate Change Action Plan
issued in October, 1993, by the Clinton Administration, which included 24 measures
related to improved energy efficiency and nine related to methane recovery in its list of
44 recommended national policy initiatives.
105 Nordhaus, W. D ..An Optimal Transition Path for Controlling GHGs, Science, Volume 258, pp. 1315-
1319 (1992).
106 Spencer, H. T., Kentucky Greenhouse Gas Inventory: Estimated Emissions and Sinks for the Year 1990,
University of Louisville, Speed Scientific School under contract with The Kentucky Natural Resources and
Environmental Protection Cabinet using funds provided by the US EPA, Office of Policy, Planning and
Evaluation, Federal Assistance No. CX822849-01-0 (1996), p. 11.
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6.1.1 Residential and Commercial Sectors-Improve the Observance and
Enforcement of Building Energy Codes
The Alliance to Save Energy, an independent non-profit group based in
Washington, DC., has consistently ranked Kentucky's building energy conservation
codes among the top in the nation. Indeed, as of March, 1995 this organization ranked
Kentucky (A+), a designation given to only five other states: Minnesota, California,
Oregon, Florida and Virginia. These codes are steadily improving across the nation but
as of today Kentucky still maintains a ranking of (A). The states at the very top are
Minnesota, Ohio, Oregon and Montana.107
An AES ranking of A is given to those states with energy codes that meet or
exceed the Model Energy Code (MEC). The MEC is published by the Council of
American Building Officials (CABO) and is updated regularly by the its code changes
committee.108 FHA and VA financed homes must comply with the MEC. The MEC is
becoming the national standard, although at present the AES gives the nation a ranking of
(C). Fifteen states are ranked at levels (D) to (F).
Enforcement is key in this state and others. Even Minnesota, which ranks at or
near the top in the nation in energy codes, concedes that its code is not adequately
enforced. The reasons cited are uneven application of the code between geographic
regions, and the lack of technical support at the state level, local staffing and resources,
training for enforcement officials, and training for builders, architects, designers and
specialty contractors. Each state may experience a different mix of these problems, but
the main cause is the same for all; namely, that our energy codes have simply outgrown
our ability to enforce them adequately.
Several approaches to this problem are available. However, it would appear
prudent in the case of Kentucky to have the legislature empower the Department for
Natural Resources, Division of Energy and the Department of Housing, Buildings, and
107 The state of Minnesota has developed an excellent energy code which, as of 1998, is a fair match for any
in the world. The history of the Minnesota code can be obtained
through:[http://www.me3.org/issues/efficiency/eocderpt_ToC.html]. This history cites Kentucky as having
been given an A+ rating by the AES in March, 1995. More recent details on the Alliance to Save Energy
may be obtained from:[http://www.oikos.eom/esb/42/codesurvey.html#archorl336060].
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Construction, Division of Administrative Services with the authority and funding to
review the unique circumstances of energy code enforcement in Kentucky. It should be
anticipated that this group of professionals will make specific recommendations to the
legislature and executive branch for the funding and support needed to carry out our
existing energy code mandate.
It is clear that Kentucky has adopted a good set of energy codes for new
buildings. However, uneven application of the code between counties, lack of local
resources, and lack of technical support and training for code officials, designers, builders
and contractors contribute to the problem.
Annual new housing starts comprise approximately one percent of Kentucky's
total residential building stock.109 In the commercial sector, major renovations are added
to yield an estimate of 5 percent annual turnover. A statewide program in place by the
year 2000, and operated on a modest scale, to inform building code officials, designers
and builders about the energy codes and how to meet them in a cost-effective manner
could be expected to boost the average efficiency of new buildings by 10 percent
compared to the typical new building construction practices prevalent in Kentucky during
each year after 2000. Between 2001 and 2020, approximately 18 percent of the stock of
residential housing and 64 percent of the commercial space is likely to be newly built or
undergo major renovation. The modest program proposed here would therefore improve
the efficiency of fuel and electricity use in the residential sector by 1.8 percent and in the
commercial sector by 6.4 percent in the year 2020. The net reduction in CO2 realized
from this program would be 1,183,277 tons per year by 2020.
A more aggressive application of this policy would include the following
elements:
(1) Expansion of the technical assistance and educational activities described above to
reach a greater fraction of the participants in a shorter period of time;
108 A number of references can be found to the MEC. Some from DOE provide manuals on how to apply
and working check list to follow. A brief description can be obtained
from: [http://www.energycodes.org/meccheck/aboutmeccheck.htm].
109 KDOE "Kentucky Housing Data, unpublished report, July 1995, based on US Census and Dodge
Reports.
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(2) Establishment of a funding mechanism to provide incentive payments to building
designers and contractors to compensate them for the extra time spent designing highly-
efficient buildings and major renovations. Financing of energy end-use efficiency
measures would be facilitates through a revolving loan fund or third-party energy service
companies (ESCOs).
The expected impacts of the program in the year 2020 could be multiplied by a factor of
four, for a net reduction of 3,284,318 tons per year.
6.1.2 Residential Sector-Promote Energy-Efficient Mortgages (EEMs) and Institute
a Home Energy Rating System (HERS)
Energy-Efficient Mortgages (EEMs) make housing more affordable, allowing
home buyers to finance energy end-use efficiency improvements by adding the additional
costs to their mortgage. They are currently available from some lenders, but are not very
well known. A home energy rating system (HERS) can work with and help popularize
EEMs in the housing market.
Several states have implemented HERS programs, and Kentucky is beginning to
develop one as well. A process whereby the energy efficiency of homes is given a rating
and mortgage terms are adjusted to facilitate efficiency improvements would affect
existing homes that are sold as well as new homes. A HERS program implemented on a
modest scale could improve energy efficiency in the residential sector by 0.5 percent
which would be equivalent to 66,909 tons CO2 per year by the year 2020.
A major effort to popularize home energy ratings and energy-efficient mortgages,
involving all of the interest groups associates with the housing market, could probably
boost average residential energy efficiency by 4 percent, which would be equivalent to
509,378 tons CO2 per year by 2020 over and above the base case projections. (See note
below concerning compartive magnitudes of emission reductions for differing degrees of
efficiency enhancement.110
110 The model utilized in the Phase II calculations is non-linear in its response to improvements in
efficiency. Thus, as in the HERS program described in Section 6.1.2 improvements of 4 percent in
residential efficiency for an aggressive program as compared to 0.5 percent for a modest program, an
improvement of eight-fold, the improvement registered in emissions reductions is 509,378 -r- 66,909 = 7.6.
The reasons for this are complex and tend to vary for case to case. However, there are two-features of the
program common to all calculations that contribute to non-linearity: (1) the improvements are not simple
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6.1.3 Commercial (Institutional) Sector: Expand and Fund the Energy Efficiency
In Government Buildings Program
The Division of Energy and the Kentucky Finance and Administration Cabinet
are presently cooperating in an initiative to improve energy efficiency in government
buildings. This is a recent initiative and has the support of existing legislation. The
initiative is far more important than just the savings in tax dollars realized, or the
reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Education of the public on these issues by
example is needed in the Commonwealth, and no better way exists than to show the
populace how government approaches the business of energy cost reduction for its
approximately 50 million square feet of building space.
Other examples of government agencies taking positive steps in improve on the
efficiency of energy end-use can be found in the Commonwealth. The Metropolitan
Sewer District of Louisville and Jefferson County has adopted the CERES Principles and
incorporated them into MSD's Environmental Policy Statement which is compulsory for
all employees. MSD, through adoption of the CERES Principles, became partners with
US EPA's Green Lights program. Subsequently, the agency hired the Louisville
Resource Conservation Council (LRCC) to develop a complete energy audit and to
develop a site-by-site work plan for implementation of improvements.111 The program
has been highly successful and has already documented yearly savings on the order of
hundreds of thousands of dollars.
The existing legislation calling for energy efficiency in government buildings
resembles an un-funded mandate. The most critical need at present is to allow the
Department for Facilities Management in the Kentucky Finance and Administration
Cabinet to hire approximately three new people to administer the program in state
government buildings. The funds to implement efficiency measures can be sought either
through future state appropriations or by contracting with energy service companies
(ESCOs).
multiples of un-improved circumstances but instead are treated as additions to the existing basecase
improvements percentage and, (2) the impacts of improvements are assumed to start taking effect in 2000
as compared to 1990 for the basecase improvements.
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The Kentucky Finance and Administration Cabinet and the Division of Energy
are currently implementing the Energy Efficiency in Government Buildings Program on a
limited scale, as described in Section 5.1.2. Because state appropriations were not made
to fund efficiency improvements, agencies are planning to negotiate shared savings
agreements with ESCOs, which would provide up-front capital in exchange for a share of
the future energy savings. The efficiency gains projected to result at the current level of
effort are reflected in the baseline estimate of GHG emissions. The program could be
significantly expanded and the efficiency gains accelerated, however, if it were staffed
and funded at the higher level. More assistance could be provided to local governments,
and the menu of services offered could be made more extensive. Several states, including
Iowa, have established revolving loan funds to finance energy efficiency upgrades in
public buildings. Such a program could be expected to increase commercial sector
energy efficiency in Kentucky by 1 percent by the year 2020 compared to the baseline,
for a reduction of 94,227 tons CO2 per year.
A much larger program would be appropriate in order to provide technical
assistance and low-cost financing that would extend beyond the public sector and achieve
efficiency retrofits in large numbers of private commercial buildings. Such a program
would work in coordination with US EPA's Energy Star Building Program and the U. S.
Department of Energy's Rebuild America Program, and would draw on the expertise and
financial capabilities of private sector ESCOs as well. It is not unreasonable to project
that a comprehensive program directed at energy efficiency retrofits in the entire
commercial sector could reduce CO2 emissions in the commercial sector by 5.0 percent,
or 456,336 tons in 2020.
6.1.4 Industrial Sector-Expand the Scope of Energy Efficiency Services Provided
by the Industrial Assessment Centers and the Kentucky Pollution Prevention Center
E. I. DuPont in Louisville, a Climate Wise partner and leader in reducing GHG
emissions, already has plans to reduce its energy consumption per pound of product by
30 percent its Louisville facility. Similar experiences can be documented for other
industries and agencies in Kentucky. Programs similar to those at MSD and DuPont have
111 The MSD program is administered by Ms. Sarah Lynn Cunningham, P.E.
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been developed and encouraged by the University of Louisville Industrial Assessment
Center, the Kentucky Pollution Prevention Center, the Energy Stars Building and Green
Lights programs, the Louisville Resource Conservation Council, several utility sponsored
commercial and demand-side management initiatives, and the Department for Natural
Resources' Division of Energy. Collectively, these programs appear to reach out to
virtually every segment of the Commonwealth's industrial sector and, in a few instances,
even overlap.
A number of corporate executives have been interviewed to determine what types
of incentives would be most effective. Responses have varied, but the one theme that has
remained constant has been the call for an incentive system that identifies the capital cost
of reduction and the amount of GHG removed. The Kentucky Industrial Development
Act (KIDA), which is administered by the Kentucky Economic Development Finance
Authority (KEFDA), provides tax credits for corporations, partnerships, sole
proprietorships, or business trusts that establish plants or expand existing manufacturing
operations in Kentucky. As presently structured, the project must involve a minimum
investment of $500,000 and create at least 15 new jobs for persons subject to Kentucky
income tax to be eligible. A limit of $10,000 in tax credit is imposed for each job
created.
The initiative proposed herein is to have the Legislative Research Commission
(LRC) review the circumstance of corporations like DuPont that have already spent
millions in reducing GHG emissions to determine how best to amend the KDIA to
provide assistance or, if that is not deemed appropriate, to determine if new legislation is
needed instead to achieve this goal. Substantial tax incentives are going to be needed in
this area and it appears that legislation like the KDIA, or a set of KDIA amendments, will
be necessary to accomplish any significant reductions.
The return from this investment is difficult to quantify with exact figures.
However, it is reasonable to anticipate a truly significant reduction in GHG emissions if a
suitable and fair systems of incentives can be found.
The three Industrial Assessment Centers (IACs) that serve Kentucky businesses
and the Kentucky Pollution Prevention Center (KPPC) are currently providing valuable
services to industrial firms, particularly small and medium-sized firms. Staff and budgets
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at these institutions, however, are limited, which limits the number of firms that can be
served.
The University of Louisville IAC team visited 30 plant sites during the 1996
fiscal year. Potential total energy savings projected on the basis of these visits were
13,410 million Btu in electricity generation and 20,124 million Btu in use of natural gas.
A drop of 5,251 kW in electricity demand was also projected if the visit
recommendations were put into action.112 It is not known, however, how much of this
potential was realized.
Application of the EPA Workbook methods utilized in Phase I of the study for
conversion of coal and gas combustion figures to CO2 emissions projects a reduction of
6,757 tons CO2 per year or, for the 30 plants visited, an average of 225 tons CO2 per year
per site visited.113 If it is assumed that approximately 50 percent of 1,007 plants in the
University of Louisville IAC area are in Kentucky, extension of the savings projected for
the 30 plants visited to half of the 1,007 possible gives a savings of 113,288 tons of CO2
year potentially available in the light industrial sector. This analysis assumes, of course,
that the electricity and natural gas saved will not otherwise be "spent" in generation of
electricity to be sold to other end-users.
A policy option to expand the size of these programs, and to provide easily-used
methods for firms to finance the energy efficiency measures that are recommended, could
substantially increase the number of firms served and the rate at which they implement
efficiency measures. The estimated reduction in CO2 emissions in the year 2020 of
113,288 tons corresponds to an efficiency improvement of 0.3 percent in the industrial
sector.
112 Hall, Rebecca Ann ; Assessment of Metal Roof and Wall Insulation for Industrial Energy Conservation,
Master of Engineering Thesis, Department of Mechanical Engineering, December 1997, p.4. Savings in
Btu electric (13,410 million Btu) and drop in demand (5,251 kW) document two different aspects of the
IAC effort. The first records how much electricity would actually be saved (in Btu units) if all of the
recommendations were put into affect. The second records what the drop in demand for electricity would
be as a result. Industries are billed on the basis of demand as well as energy consumption,and a drop in this
figure results in a lower bill. Thus, two means of cost reduction come about for industry as a result of
reducing the amount of electricity used.
113 The EPA workbook methods project emissions of 1,171 tons C02 for 20,124 million BTU for heating
using natural gas. The 13,410 million BTU savings in electricity production was projected to reduce
emissions by 5,586 tons C02 given a 28 percent efficiency of conversion of heat from coal combustion to
electricity.
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There is a limit to the GHG reduction potential that can reasonably be expected to
result from the type of voluntary, outside technical assistance provided by the IACs and
the KPPC. To achieve a larger impact in the industrial sector, other barriers besides the
lack of technical information need to be overcome, i.e., lack of capital for energy-related
investments and insufficient return on investment (given Kentucky's low average energy
prices). The institution of tax credits , a low-interest revolving loan fund, or other
financial incentives to encourage industrial efficiency investments can address these
barriers and magnify the measurable savings. Indeed, much greater reductions can be
anticipated if sufficient funding and incentives are made available in support of actual
plant process upgrades to more efficient systems as compared to just tightening up
heating and cooling systems. An estimated reduction in CO2 emissions in the year 2020
of 5,531,419 tons, corresponding to an efficiency improvement of 25 percent in the
industrial sector, would not be an unreasonable expectation given such support.
6.1.5 Transportation Sector - "Feebates" (fees coupled with rebates) to Encourage
Purchase of Fuel Efficient Vehicles
A recent study of scenarios for U. S. carbon emissions reductions developed by
the nation's five national laboratories states categorically that "improved technological
efficiency has been the most critical factor in energy trends." The automobile of course
is a perfect example. For passenger cars fuel economy improved at a rate of 5 percent per
year between 1972 and 1988, and this trend is expected to continue if not get higher.114
Westbrook notes that 70 percent of the gain in fuel economy made between 1976 and
1989 was due to a shift to smaller cars that offer "the combination of weight reduction,
improved transmissions, tires, and aerodynamics, widespread use of fuel injection,
various engine improvements, and wider use of front wheel drive."115 Recent shifts in
the market to light trucks and larger cars may have halted this trend and partially reversed
114 Duleep, K. GScenarios for U. S. Carbon Reductions; Oak Ridge, Lawrence Berkley, Argonne,
National Renewable Energy and Pacific Northwest National Laboratories: Chapter 5, p.
5.1 [http://www.ornl.gov/ORNL/Energy-Eff/CON444/],
115 Westbrook, F. W. , Allocation of New Car Economy Improvements, 1976-1989: Synopsis", submission
to Oak Ridge National Laboratory as quoted by Duleep, K. G.;Scenarios for U. S. Carbon Reductions; Oak
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it. Little if any improvement is attributed to car pools, or to shifts to other forms of
transportation.
It appears from this analysis that if policy makers intend to bring about significant
reductions in GHG emissions in the transportation sector in Kentucky, they will do so
only if a way is found to encourage the purchase of lighter, fuel-efficient cars. The nature
and extent of the incentive, however, is open to some debate although it has been
determined that no such incentives exist now.
The idea of a "feebate"- a combination of fees and rebates- is to encourage the
manufacture and sale of energy-efficient light vehicles by applying fees to the sale of
inefficient models and paying rebates for highly efficient models. At the state level, the
feebate system could be designed to be revenue-neutral in that the fees could be set to
balance the total costs of the rebates plus the costs of administering the program. The
effect of vehicle buyers' decisions on overall transportation GHG emissions is a function
of the size of the fees and rebates.
Although the concept is simple, a number of complicating factors need to be
addressed in implementing a state-level feebate program. These include the treatment of
light trucks, the issue of domestic and foreign manufacturers, and the legality of
instituting a state policy that may be seen as duplicating the Federal fuel economy
standards. Careful program design, however, can address such concerns.116
A feebate system instituted at a relatively low monetary level might yield a 5
percent improvement in efficiency for a reduction in 2020 of 1,244,404 tons of CO2,
while a more steeply inclined schedule of fees and rebates leading to a 10 percent
improvement in efficiency could yield a reduction of 2,392,273 tons.
Energy conservation programs in this area are noticeably absent in Kentucky.
Some reductions do occur as a spin-off of VET programs and, to a lesser extent, from the
sale of RFG gasoline, but these are minor in comparison to what could be accomplished
through the purchase of fuel efficient vehicles. All of the major car makers have
Ridge, Lawrence Berkley, Argonne, National Renewable Energy and Pacific Northwest National
Laboratories: Chapter 5, p. 5.1[http://www.ornl.gov/ORNL/Energy-Eff/CON444/].
116 Feebates for Fuel Economy: Market Incentives for Encouraging Production and Sales of Efficient
Vehicles, John M. DeCicco, Howard S. Geller, and John H. Morrill, 1992, American Council for an
Energy-Efficient Economy, Washington, D.C.)
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announced plans to introduce vehicles on the market in the near future, most of which are
gasoline powered and which will drastically reduce the amount of fuel consumed per
mile driven. These cars will supplied mostly to California and the Northeast but can be
expected to be found nation wide by 2001.
The initiatives outlined above would influence a number of issues in the
Commonwealth in addition to fuel economy. Air quality in the nine problem counties
would certainly benefit, as would some aspects of the economy if it is assumed that
savings were used to purchase other goods. Indeed, the suggestion of offering tax
incentives for the purchase of fuel-efficient cars seems to fit in the category of a
"common sense initiative" and might best be served by an Environmental Quality
Commission (EQC) resolution calling first for establishment of a work group of experts,
government officials, industry representatives and public representatives assigned the
charge of coming up with an equitable plan for such incentives. The proposal of tax
incentives and feebates for fuel efficient cars, while appearing simple, is actually quite
complex. A detailed proposal as to how this might be done is beyond the scope of this
report, but the suggestion of a serious study of the possibility made by a well-balanced
group under EQC guidance is entirely reasonable.
6.2 Renewable Energy Sources
6.2.1 Solar Heating for Low-Temperature Applications
Although Kentucky is not located in the part of the United States with the largest
amount of solar insolation, there are many low-temperature applications which could use
solar energy if the economics were slightly more favorable. These include heating water
for swimming pools, preheating water in the commercial and residential sectors, drying
crops, and preheating air for industrial and commercial space heating of buildings. Two
possible mechanisms to improve the economics to the point where solar heating is cost-
effective are: (1) A fund established to support renewable energy projects; and (2) State
income tax credits for individuals or corporations that install solar heating equipment.
The first option is being implemented in certain states such as California that have
restructured their utility industries. The California restructuring plan allocates $540
million over the period 1998-2001 to provide payments to producers and consumers of
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electricity from renewable sources, including solar, wind, biomass, geothermal, small
hydro, methane from landfills, and animal manure. The system is partly market-based in
that producers bid to supply renewable power, and those requesting the lowest subsidy
per kilowatt-hour are funded first.
State income tax credits were allowed on certain types of solar heating equipment
in Kentucky during the early 1980s. Although many solar water heating systems were
installed as a result of the tax credits, ongoing servicing and parts for the systems became
less available over time. When the tax credits ended, some of the companies went out of
business, leaving customers unable to obtain service for their solar heating systems. It
should be possible, however, to design a tax credit program that corrects for the problems
experienced during the 1980s.
It is estimated that a small renewable energy fund or a modest income tax credit
could displace 0.2 percent of the energy used in the residential, commercial, and
industrial sectors, reducing CO2 emissions by 128,192 tons per year, while a larger-scale
program could displace 1.0 percent of the energy used in these sectors in the year 2020,
reducing CO2 emissions by 596,560 tons per year.
6.2.2 Solar Electric Systems
The cost of technologies that convert sunlight directly to electricity, known as
photovoltaic or "PV" systems, has fallen steadily since their introduction in the 1960s as
a means of providing energy in satellites and spacecraft. Though the capital cost per
installed kilowatt is still too high for PV systems to displace baseload electric power, it is
cost-effective today in certain specialized applications. PV is used today on Kentucky
highways to supply power to flashing warning signs, and it can be the lowest-cost option
in other remote areas, where the cost of extending a power line or using a diesel generator
would be prohibitive.
During the next several years, it is likely that the Federal government will institute
incentives such as tax credits to encourage the installation of PV systems on commercial
buildings and homes. Kentucky could magnify the impact of such national policies by
instituting state-level policies such as those discussed above (Section 6.2.1).
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It is estimated that a small program to subsidize PV electricity or a modest income
tax credit could displace 0.1 percent of the energy used in the residential and commercial
sectors reducing CO2 emissions by 20,174 tons per year, while a larger-scale program
could displace 0.7 percent of the energy used in these sectors in the year 2020, reducing
emissions by 140,545 tons per year.
6.3 Reduce Emissions of Chloroflurocarbons (CFCs)
In the course of estimating GHG emissions for the year 1990, it was estimated
that the single Kentucky manufacturing plant operated by the E. I. DuPont Company
emitted 937 tons of HCFC-22 and 1,499 tons of HFC-23. (HFC-23 is a byproduct of
HCFC-22 production.) These projections were based on design criteria available at the
time and upon statistical data published on a national basis. DuPont has since reported
the exact figures for both compounds, and others.117 The reported data suggest that the
emissions estimated for 1990 Phase I inventory were lower than actual, although in some
years since 1994 the true emissions and inventory estimate are comparable.
Table 7. HCFC-22 and HCFC-22 By-Product Emissions (HFC-23): 1990-1996
Year
HCFC-22 Emissions in
tons per year
HFC-23 Emissions in tons
per year
1990
3,425
2,379
1991
1,275
2,766
1992
1,840
3,336
1993
2,690
2,494
1994
1,033
1,835
1995
2,888
1,851
1996
1,953
1,935
117 DuPont fluoroproducts are reported as SARA 313 emissions. Reports for HCFC-22 were not required
before 1994 but duPont has listed the figures nonetheless. The copy of this data received by Hugh T.
Spencer from Mr. Carl Hilton, Enviromnental Affairs Officer for the Louisville duPont plant, also
contained emissions for HFC-23.
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DuPont has already spent $750,000 in an effort to reduce HFC-23 emissions to 50
percent of the 1990 level by 1998. Another $1,000,000 to $5,000,000 expenditure is
projected as the costs of installing a complete recycle system for HFC-23. This plan, if it
becomes operational, will remove essentially all fugitive HFC-23 emissions. Thus, it
appears entirely feasible to consider a 100 percent reduction for HFC-23 emissions by
2020.
The results achieved between 1990 and 1998 by the ongoing pollution prevention
program that has been put in place at the DuPont plant give rise to the baseline
assumption that CFC emissions will decrease by 50 percent by the year 2020. Additional
policies such as tax incentives may enable DuPont to make the capital investments
necessary to reduce its emissions further. A modest incentive might be expected to
reduce remaining HFC-23 emissions by another 25 percent, providing a reduction in CO2
equivalent emissions to 3,131,004 tons per year by 2020. A more aggressive incentive
leading to the complete removal of fugitive HFC-23 emissions would result in a
reduction of 6,258,309 tons CO2 equivalent per year.
6.4 Methane Capture and Recovery
Eleven sources of methane were quantified in Phase I of this study as components
of the 1990 emissions inventory. These are listed in the table below in the order of
impact.118
Table 8. 1990 Inventory Methane Emissions for Kentucky
Activity and Gas
Type
Coal extraction
Domestic animals
Landfills
Manure management
Tons CH4 Emitted
per Year for 1990
900,083
155,463
126,066
37,629
Equivalent Tons
per Year as CO2
19,801,826
3,420,189
2,773,457
827,839
Percent of State
Total as CO2
9.63
1.66
1.35
0.40
118 Spencer, Hugh T., Kentucky Greenhouse Gas Inventory: Estimated Emissions and Sinks for the Year
1990, The Kentucky Natural Resources and Environmental Protection Cabinet, Division of Energy and the
KIESD, Center for Environmental Engineering, University of Louisville, with funds from US EPA Office
of Policy, Planning and Evaluation, Federal Assistance No. CX822849-01-0, p. 11, 1996
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Nat. gas distribution
Wastewater
Crude oil transport
Gas-oil well vent
Oil production
Gas production
Crude oil storage
Total
0.66
1,247,592
19,553
8,022
384.7
293.3
91.6
5.71
27,447,051
430,175
176,493
8,463
6,453
2,015
126
15
0.00001
0.00006
0.001
0.003
0.004
13.35
0.09
0.21
Methane emissions do make up a significant part of Kentucky's contribution, with
coal-bed methane as the leading source. Other sources releasing significant amounts are
domestic animals, manure and landfills. Of these, coal-bed methane and landfills offer
the best opportunities for reduction. Methane emissions from domestic animals come via
metabolic activity. Some of the programs in operation today designed to reduce methane
emissions from domestic animals are discussed in Chapter 4. Emissions from other
sources, with the possible exception of manure management, are too small to make a
significant impact.
6.4.1 Coal-bed Methane
Coal-bed methane, except as captured as part of an existing producing natural gas
field, is not a well developed resource in Kentucky. Ownership issues and high capital
costs associated with limited promise of return are complicating factors that together
conspire to keep development and interest in this area at a low level. Some possibility for
capture and utilization, however, does exist.
A modest tax incentative leading to the reduction of coal-bed emissions through
methane capture could reasonably be expected to reduce direct losses by 0.1 percent by
the year 2020. This would provide for a reduction equivalent to 23,349 tons of CO2 per
year. A more aggressive program leading to a 1 percent reduction in methane emissions
would reduce the CO2 equivalent emissions by 200,194 tons per year.
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6.4.2 Landfill Gas (LFG)
As noted in Section 5.5, at least twenty landfills in Kentucky are estimated by
EPA to have the potential to support economically viable gas-to-energy projects,
although no landfills in Kentucky currently have existing energy recovery projects.
However, one is planned for the near future. The CO2 emission reductions achievable by
LFG to energy projects in Kentucky could approach 3,600,000.
Modest tax incentives leading to development of a capture system for at least 20
percent of the 3,600,000 figure are possible, or for a reduction of 720,000 tons CO2 per
year. A more aggressive incentive might result in the capture of up to 40 percent of the
methane from this source for a reduction of 1,440,000 tons of CO2 equivalent per year.
6.4.3 Manure Management Programs
Manure management programs designed to capture methane from anaerobic
digestion of animal waste have been successfully developed in other states, but only after
the application of considerable capital. The return on such investments, while limited, is
usually sufficient to defer costs of operation. Secondary benefits from such programs
such as odor control and reductions in stream pollution may in fact be the more important
reasons for their application.
A modest effort in the form of low-interest loans, or of tax credits, designed to
off-set the capital costs of developing manure management programs can reasonably be
expected to reduce emissions in this sector by 5 percent in the year 2020, to give an
equivalent reduction in CO2 of 38,232 tons per year. A more intense program providing
a 20 percent reduction would reduce emissions by 141,827 tons per year. The
Commonwealth already offers funds and support for manure management programs
through cost-share arrangements and revolving loan systems.
6.5 Re-Powering (Fuel Switching) Initiatives for the Utility Industry
The traditional post World War II coal-fired utility generating station built
between the years 1945 to 1990 utilized coal combustion to generate steam which in turn
passed through a steam turbine to generate electricity. Many of these plants are now due
for replacement by virtue of their age, a circumstance which comes at the same time as
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electric industry restructuring, new and demanding air pollution requirements (NOx and
PM2.5), and reductions in demand as a result of energy efficiency gains. These realities
immediately raise several questions. Specifically, (1) how will plants of the future be
powered; (2) what size will they be; (3) what will their service areas be; (4) where will
they be located; and (5) what will their future contributions be to the Commonwealth's
greenhouse gas emissions. Clearly, a great deal is going to happen in the utility industry
in the near future. This begs the question: "Can the changes be orchestrated in a way
which will result in the reduction of GHG emissions while preserving the economy of the
coal mining industry?" The answer is "yes" if re-powering or fuel switching is taken into
account in which the primary fuel is switched from coal to natural gas, or from coal to a
coal O gas conversion system.
In the following discussion, power plants fueled by natural gas are referred to by
the acronym NGCC, which stands for Natural Gas Combined-Cycle. Coal O gas
conversion systems are referred to as IGCC systems, which stands for Integrated
Gasification Combined-Cycle. Both have a role to play in the future of the
Commonwealth's utility and coal industry, and in initiatives undertaken to reduce GHG
emissions. The utility industry was identified in Phase I of this study as being responsible
for 37 percent of the State's emissions. Thus, policy initiatives dealing with this sector of
the economy will have a significant impact.
The basic nature of an NGCC system is shown in the diagram below:
Fuel Gas —»
Air
I
Flue Gas
I
Waste Heat
I
Gas
Turbine
Generator
—>
Heat
Recovery
Steam
—>
Steam .
rj, , . —7 Electricity
lurbine J
Generator
I
Electricity
104
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Estimates taken from recent national studies indicate that annual carbon emissions can be
reduced nationally by up to 238 million metric tons of carbon (MtC) through re-powering
withNGCC systems.119
IGCC systems are identical to NGCC systems except for the source of the fuel.
The fuel gas in NGCC systems is natural gas. In IGCC power islands, the fuel gas is
derived from coal, or as in the case of advanced fuel technologies (AFT), from a
combination solid waste and coal. Working IGCC and AFT/IGCC systems, and some
NGCC systems, are now operational in the U. S. and in Fife, Scotland.120
For IGCC systems the coal is crushed prior to gasification and then partly burned
through the addition of steam and air. The fuel gas passes through a heat recovery
system and cleanup section where particulates and sulfur are removed. From this point
the fuel gas goes to a gas turbine generator as shown in the figure above. In the
AFT/IGCC system the design is the same with the exception of the solid fuel feed stream.
The AFT system combines coal and domestic solid waste to form fuel briquettes which in
turn go on to the gasifier. Tipping fees paid to the operator for solid waste disposal offset
the cost of the coal making the AFT/IGCC system competitive with NGCC systems. The
typical generating capacity of AFT/IGCC systems on the market today is 400 MW.
The tax incentives needed to fund even a modest re-powering schedule calling for
construction of two to three 400 MW units (NGCC, IGCC or AFT/IGCC) would involve
a significant amount of money. The savings gained, however, in terms of CO2 emission
reductions would also be considerable. Policies leading to replacing approximately 10
percent of Kentucky's 1990 coal-fired generating capacity of 12,000 MW beyond the 10
percent basecase figure would in turn reduce CO2 emissions by 3,652,701 tons per year in
2020. These policies would be in support of construction of three 400 MW units for the
basecase replacement and another three units to give a total of 20 percent replacement by
119 Scenarios for U. S. Carbon Reductions; Oak Ridge, Lawrence Berkley, Argonne, National Renewable
Energy and Pacific Northwest National Laboratories: Chapter 7, p. 1 [http://www.ornl.gov/ORNL/Energy-
Eff/CON444/].
120 The number of IGCC plants operating in the U. S. is growing. DOE has recently made Tampa Electric's
Polk Power plant the fifth plant since 1991 to receive a clean coal facility prestiguous award. Others are
sure to follow. An AFT/IGCC plant is also now operational in Fife, Scotland. The Environmental
Statement prepared by Hannah, Reed and Associates for the 400 MW AFT/IGCC plant at Fife was made
available to the author on a loan basis. This document is not generally available but persons interested in
105
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2020. More aggressive policies leading to the construction of six 400 MW units in
addition to the three for the basecase for a total of nine would replace up to 30 percent of
the coal-fired baseload and provide a reduction of 10,950,702 tons CO2.
this technology may learn more about it by contacting Global Energy Corporation, 312 Walnut Street,
Cincinnati, OH.
106
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7. POTENTIAL FOR GHG INCREASING CARBON
SEQUESTRATION THROUGH EXISTING REFORESTATION
PROGRAMS
The most recent survey available for Kentucky's timber resources (1988) lists
12,532,800 acres classified as timberland distributed as shown in the Table 7.121 The
distribution of timberlands by county is shown in Figure 9. With the exception of Owen
County, it is evident that forest cover in the Bluegrass is limited. Timberland cover is
more extensive in Eastern Coal Field, particularly in Pike, Breathitt, and Harlan Counties,
and in the counties close to, or forming the eastern boundary of the Western Coal Field.
Timberland cover through the Mississippian Plateaus is not as extensive as in the coal
fields, but coverage in this area is not insignificant.
Table 9. Distribution of Kentucky Timberlands as of the Most Recent Survey (1988)
Classification
Acreage Covered
Timberlands
12,347,300
Other forest
37,600
Reserve forest
147,700
Total timberlands
12,532,600
Non-forestlands
12,694,200
Total 25,226,800
121 The United States Forest Service provides listings of timberland cover under the heading of "State
Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA)" at http://srsfia.usfs.msstate.edu/scripts/twig/kytab.com. The principal
source for the data given for Kentucky is: Alerich, Carol L., Forest Statistics for Kentucky: 1975 and 1988,
US Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northeast Forest Station. Resources Bulletin NE-117.
107
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Figure 9. Distribution of Kentucky Timberlands as of the most Recent
Survey(1988)
With the exception of Owen County, it is evident that forest cover in the Bhiegrass is
limited. Timberland cover is more extensive in Eastern Coal Field, particularly in Pike, Breathitt
and Harlan Counties, and in the counties close to, or forming eastern boundary of the Western
Coal Field. Timberland cover through the Mississippi an Plateaus is not as extensive as in the
coal fields, but coverage in this area is not insignificant.
The counties with the largest tracts of timberlands are:
Pike 423,000 acres
Breathitt 283,000
Harlan 272,000
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108
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The distribution of Kentucky timberlands by ownership category is given in Table
10.122 It is evident from these data that private individual ownership far outweighs any
other category, especially if combined with ownership classified as "farm-ranch."
Together these two groups control 82 percent of Kentucky's timberlands.
Table 10 . Distribution of Ownership for Kentucky's Timberlands
Category
Acres of Timberlands
Percent
National Forest
698,900
5.66
Bureau of Land Mngt.
0
0.00
Tribal Trust
0
0.00
Misc. Federal
235,200
1.90
State
140,000
1.14
County or Municipal
0
0.00
Forest Industry
204,500
1.66
Farm-Ranch
1,451,300
11.75
Private Corporation
981,700
7.95
Private Individual
8,635,200
69.94
Total
12,347,300
100.00
Non-government ownership summed over all private and corporate categories controls a
total of 91 percent of the Commonwealth's timberlands.
The listing of municipal and county forest listed as "zero" for Kentucky in the
National Forest Service FIA tables is not technically correct. Acreage in this category for
the Commonwealth, while locally significant, appears to have been too low to be
considered in the FIA database. An inventory of parks, unique areas and habitats was
developed for Kentucky in 1977 by Stine.123 This author identified 158 parks in the
Jefferson County-Louisville Metropolitan area alone. Twelve of these were listed as
being over 100 acres and one, the Jefferson County Forest, was listed as having an area of
122 Ibid., "State Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA)" http://srsfia.usfs.msstate.edu/scripts/twig/kytab.com.
123 Stine, Denise Marie, An Inventory of Parks, Unique Areas, and Habitats in Kentucky, Master of
Engineering Dissertation, Enviromnental Engineering, Speed Scientific School, University of Louisville,
1977.
109
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over 1,000 acres. Stine's work is also interesting in that it provides one of the earliest
technical references to an extensive acreage (1,500 acres) of "untouched" forest on the
south face of Pine Mountain. This forest tract has since been declared true old-growth
and has been purchased in part by the State. It is now known as Blanton Forest and
actually comprises some 2,000 acres.
Kentucky's old growth forests comprise some of the most beautiful wildlife
habitat to be found in the United States, or anywhere in the world for that matter, but
forests in this category do not offer a benefit in carbon sequestration. Their acreage is
small, now no more than 2,500 acres state-wide, and they are mature. Managed
timberlands that are actively being harvested and then replanted do, on the other hand,
offer a benefit, as do lands (crop, pasture, mined terrain or urban "built" properties) that
return to forest cover. Collectively, crop and pasture lands were returning to forest in
Kentucky at a rate of 20,000 acres per year as of 1990. Mined lands were also then
returning to forest in Kentucky at a rate of approximately 30,000 acres per year, primarily
in the eastern hardwood forest of Appalachia. Managed timberlands, however, are
present in Kentucky in excess of 12,000,000 acres and thus offer a far more extensive
opportunity for carbon sequestration. All concerned with the Commonwealth's timber
resources agree that we are in a period of "boom" growth for the industry which currently
is putting up to $3 billion dollars per year into the State's economy.124
Figures for the 1990 sawn lumber harvest by board feet per county are available
for Kentucky and were cited in the 1990 Phase I Inventory Study. The total for the state
from this source was 752,098,273 board feet.125 This harvest was converted to cubic
meters by use of the standard conversion factor: 1,000 board feet = 3.48 m3.126 Thus,
124 Melnykovich, Andrew; Forest at a Crossroads, January 25, 1998; Kentucky Looking to Virginia and
West Virginia on Logging Laws, January 26, 1998; Can Kentucky Learn from Missouri Forest?; The
Courier-Journal, Louisville, Kentucky. The Melnykovich articles provide an in-depth three-part series
detailing the nature of Kentucky's timber sales boom. The same points are made as above; namely, that the
annual rate of timberland harvest and the actual amount available are poorly known statistics at this time.
125 1990 Sawn Lumber Production for Kentucky; Natural Resources and Environmental Protection Cabinet,
Department for Natural Resources, Division of Forestry, 627 Comanche Trail, Frankfort, Kentucky 40601.
126 The figure of 3.48 m3 per 1,000 board feet was provided by Dr. Robert Muller, Chairman of the
Department of Forestry at the University of Kentucky. The number comes from the work of Carol L.
Alerich. This conversion factor is remarkably variable. The CRC Handbook of Chemistry and Physics for
example gives 1 board feet = 2,359.7372 cm3 which in turn gives 1,000 board feet = 2.36 m3. The two
conversion factors differ by a factor of 1.47. Alerich, however, does provide a thorough analysis and
documentation for his figure 3.48 m3 per board foot explaining the reasons for the difference.
110
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cubic meters harvested in 1990 = 752,098.723 x 3.48 = 2,617,302 m3. Conversion of this
figure to cubic feet gives: 2,617,302 m3 x 35.314667 ft3/m3 = 9.24E+07 ft3 for sawn
lumber. Birdsey projects 2,034 cubic feet per acre for a mature hardwood forest in the
central U. S.127 Division of the gross harvest figure by this number gives: 9.24E+07 ft3
2,034 ft3 per acre = 45,428 acres. The industry has grown 1.5 fold since 1990. Thus, an
estimate of 68,000 acres per year for the current rate of forest land-cover removal in
Kentucky is realistic. This estimate, however, comes with a large error margin and
should be referred to as "an annual acreage equivalent to 68,000 acres of harvest quality
timber."
The Division of Forestry reported 897 million board feet of lumber produced in
Kentucky in 1995 with an average harvest rate of 3,000 board feet per acre.128 These
figures suggest harvest acreage of 897,000,000 3,000 = 299,000 acres for 1995, a figure
three times the 1998 estimate developed using Birdsey's number of 2,034 cubic feet per
acre. This estimate must also be taken as having a large error margin, although it may
well be closer to the truth for Kentucky. The truth is that exact figures for forest harvest
in Kentucky are not known by any source in the Commonwealth, but it does appear that
the range is currently on the order 70,000 to 300,000 acres per year. A figure of 100,000
has been adopted for this study.
7.1 Potential for increasing the urban forest
Sampson et al. after developing a careful analysis of the potential for urban forest
cover concluded that the "role of U. S. urban and community trees in affecting the global
carbon dioxide balance is admittedly modest".129 These authors estimate that work to
improve urban forest could potentially provide a 2 to 3 percent reduction in national
emissions which, while small, would still be of some importance.
127 Birdsey's projections [as cited by Neil Sampson and Dwight Hair, Forest and Global Change Volume 2:
Forest Management Opportunities for Mitigating Carbon Emissions, An American Forest Publication,
Washington, DC, Appendix 2 through Appendix 4, 1966] suggest 2,034 cubic feet of timber volume per
acre for a mature oak-hickory forest in the central states.
128 Personal communication from Larry Lowe, Division of Forestry to Geoff Young, Division of Energy,
February 12,1998.
129 Sampson, Neil R., Moll, Gary A. and James Kielbaso, Opportunities to Increase Urban Forest and the
Potential Impacts on Carbon Storage and Conservation, Forest and Global Change, Volume 1, edited by
111
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Sampson and Kielbaso developed a spreadsheet model for urban sequestration
using national figures. This model is readily adaptable to the state level and has been so
structured for the Kentucky Phase II project.130'131 The model is of particular value in
that it takes improvement due to cooling and heating effects into account as well as
carbon sequestration. The revised model estimates a removal rate in tons CO2 per year
over the period of 2000 to 2020 for the Commonwealth of Kentucky.
Sampson and Kielbaso considered 50.3 million acres total in the United States to
be in the category of "built-urban." This comprises approximately 2 percent of the U.S.
land cover. The extent of built land is not known exactly for Kentucky, but it is believed
to be greater than 2 percent.132 A figure of 4 percent for the Commonwealth gives
approximately 1,000,000 acres of "urban-built" land which is a reasonable figure. The
Sampson and Kielbaso model projects a potential reduction in CO2 emissions of
2,728,879 tons per year by 2020 for this land coverage. Such a reduction would, of
course, only be realized if policies were adopted to further encourage urban tree planting
programs.
7.2 Potential for increasing rural and managed forest
The degree to which farm, mined properties, and managed forest tracts returning
to forest can be counted on to sequester carbon may be estimated from the data provided
in Figures 15 through 17.133 Several means are available for utilization of these curves.
The polynomial functions \f(x)~\ can be reorganized to give CO2 equivalents sequestered
for a given interval (x) as follows:
Tons CO2 sequestered per interval = |/fxy)]*acres returned*(1000/2000)*3.67,
where;
Neil Sampson and Dwight Hair, An American Forest Publication prepared with the support of The USD A,
USEPA, DOE and the American Forest Council, (1992), p. 51.
130 See Report Appendix
131 Sampson, Neil and J. James Kielbaso, Construction of a National Urban Forest Impact Model, Ibid.,
Forest and Global Change, Volume I, p. 281.
132 Personal communication with Dr. Bill Dakan, Department of Geography and Geosciences, University of
Louisville, Louisville, Kentucky, December 1997.
133 Birdsey, Richard A., as cited by Neil Sampson and Dwight Hair, Forest and Global Change Volume 2:
Forest Management Opportunities for Mitigating Carbon Emissions, An American Forest Publication,
Washington, DC, Appendix 2 through Appendix 4, 1966.
112
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|f(x)\ = the polynomial function,
acres returned = acres returned to forest,
1000 = 1000 multiple needed to convert result (y) from 1000 pounds per acre to
pounds per acre,
2000 = 2000 pounds per ton, and
3.67 = 3.67 equivalents of CO2 per unit mass of carbon sequestered.
An example tabulation for pasture to forest is given in Table 12 along with the
differential for sequestration. The figures shown are for the return of 10,000 acres of
pasture land every year beginning in the year 2000 and continuing through 2020. This
figure presumes that the historical rate of return to forest will decrease over time from its
current level of 20,000 acres per year to an average of 10,000 acres per year from 2000
through 2020. A significant portion of farmlands converted to alternate use during this
time frame, if still being lost at the higher rate 20,000 acres per year in 2020, are expected
to go to urban-built property in contrast to forest. The first 10,000 acres returned (in
2000) will, of course, have accumulated more CO2 over the twenty-year period than the
second 10,000 acres returned (in 2001) given that these lands will have had one more
year to grow. Obviously, as the year of return approaches 2020 the carbon sequestered
approaches zero.
Table 11. Cumulative Carbon Sequestration for Pasture Lands Returned to Forest
at a Rate of 10,000 Acres per Year
Year of Reversion Interval (x) in years of Sequestration as
accumulation out to Tons CO2 per Interval (x)
2020
113
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2000
20
750,955
2002
18
676,857
2004
16
602,444
2006
14
527,750
2008
12
452,810
2010
10
377,661
2012
8
302,338
2014
6
226,874
2016
4
151,307
2018
2
75,670
2020
0
0
Total CO2 sequestration O 7,914,074
114
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Figure 10. Regional Estimates of Forest Carbon for Fully Stocked
Timber land with Average Management after Pasture Reversion to Forest
The polynomial functions IJfxiJ can be reorganized to give C02 equivalents sequestered
for a given inten
-------
Figure 11. Regional Estimates for Forest Carbon for Fully Stocked
Timberland with Average Management after Cropland Reversion to Forest
The polynomial functions IJfxiJ can be reorganized to give ('()< equivalents sequestered
for a given inten «0
Years after rewrsfcon
116
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Figure 12. Regional Estimates of Forest Carbon for Fully Stocked
Tiniberland with Average Management after Clear-cut Harvest
The polynomial functions [/(xij can be reorganized to give C02 equivalents sequestered
for a given intenal = [f(x)]*acres retumed*(1000/2000) *3.67,
where;
[fix)] = the polynomial function,
acres returned = acres returned to forest,
1000 = 1000 multiple needed to convert result (y) from 1000 pounds per acre to pounds
per acre,
2000 = 2000 pounds per ton, and
3.67 = 3.67 equivalents of CO2 per unit mass of carbon sequestered.
Regional Estimates of Forest Carbon for Fully Stocked Timbetland with Average Management
after Pasture Reversion to Forest
y " -4E-05X* + 1E-05x:' + 2.0624X « 48-186
R2 - 0.9997
100
120
Years after reversion
117
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The figures in Table 12 were obtained by first determining from the equation
above the sequestered CO2 present at the start of the interval. For the case chosen as an
example this figure turns out to be 884,213 tons CO2 sequestered for the pasture acreage
returning to forest. For this first calculation (x) is set equal to zero. Next, the CO2
sequestered twenty years later is determined by applying the function with (x) set equal to
10. This figure is 1,653,169 tons CO2. The difference between these figures (1,501,911
- 884,213 = 617,698) is the tonnage of CO2 sequestered over the 20 year interval. For
determination of sequestration over the interval 2001 to 2020 (x) is set equal to nineteen
(19) years. The rest of the calculations follow this pattern with the sum of the twenty
year experience being taken as the sequestration benefit for the period.
A tabulation of 2000 to 2020 projections for carbon sequestration for pasture,
crop lands, timber harvest properties and for return of newly-mined lands to forest is
given in Table 12. As noted above, this tabulation assumes that historical (1975 to 1990)
trends in land use and conversion will continue through 2020.
Table 12. Potential for Carbon Sequestration from 2000 through 2020 for Return of
Pasture, Crop lands, Harvested Timberlands and Newly-Mined Land to Managed
Forest Cover
Source of land returned Acres returned per year
Carbon sequestered as
tons CO2 by 2020
Pasture lands
Crop lands
Harvested timberlands
Newly-mined lands
10,000
10,000
100,000
30,000
7,914,074
8,349,378
27,003,517
12,091,127
Total
150,000
55,358,097
The 55,358,097 tons CO2 cited in Table 13 fails to take into account the CO2
released due to land conversion concomittant to surface mining. The rate determined for
118
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land conversion emissions due to mining in the 1990 Phase I inventory was 4,025,273
tons per year. Assuming this rate holds constant over time, the net rate for carbon
sequestration potential becomes 55,358,097 - 4,025,273 = 51,332,824 tons per year in
2020, which is higher than the figure of 34,186,726 tons per year estimated for net
sequestration in 1990. Timber harvest has increased since 1990, and the difference cited
here can be accounted for by that factor.
7.3 Existing Programs for Reforestation and Forest Management
Interest in forest preservation and development in Kentucky, and in greenhouse
gas emissions reduction, have brought a number of programs into being. These include
legislative initiatives, mining reclamation initiatives, action taken by utilities and
corporate landowners, extension service assistance in forest maintenance provided
through the University of Kentucky, initiatives supported by the Environmental Quality
Commission, local efforts in reforestation of city and county park lands, and the efforts
of the Kentucky Division of Forestry. A brief review of these programs is provided
below.
7.3.1 Reclamation Advisory Memorandum (RAM) Number 124
Current reclamation practice creates three circumstances inhibitory to the
development of post-mined land to a forest resource. These are: excessive compaction of
the rooting medium, selection of inappropriate rooting medium, and excessive
competition from herbaceous ground cover species established to control erosion. RAM
124 addresses these issues. It was formulated through the NREPC after a
recommendation made by the Environmental Quality Commission in the spring of 1996
in the form of a resolution given as a "Common Sense Initiative." The initiative directed
the Department of Surface Mining Reclamation and Enforcement to initiate a high-
priority and aggressive approach to promote reforestation as a viable post-mining land
use. RAM 124 has been accepted by the Department for Natural Resources and its
Division of Forestry as appropriate reclamation practice for those mined areas reclaimed
119
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to a post-mining land use which requires the establishment of deep-rooted woody
species.134
7.3.2 Tree Planting Programs Designed to Off-Set Greenhouse Gas Emissions
One utility with generating plants in Kentucky has begun to plant trees to offset
GHG emissions. American Electric Power (AEP) recently planted 245,000 seedlings on
250 acres in the vicinity of its Carr site near Vanceburg, Kentucky, and in the area of its
Big Sandy plant near Louisa, Kentucky.135
7.3.3 The Kentucky Forest Stewardship Program
The University of Kentucky, Department of Forestry Extension Service offers
forest stewardship assistance to any land owner with 10 or more acres of timberland. The
program is voluntary and comes without charge or obligation. Upon request the property
will be visited by a professional forester and, if necessary, by representatives of the
Kentucky Department of Fish and Wildlife Resources. A detailed management plan is
submitted to the land owner, who then may apply the recommendations a desired.136
7.3.4 Division of Forestry Reforestation Programs
The Department for Natural Resources, Division of Forestry maintains extensive
programs in urban and rural reforestation, and also provides advice and guidance to
landowners and loggers. More than ninety percent of the Commonwealth's timberlands
are owned by 400,000 private holders of relatively small parcels of land. The Division is
assigned the difficult task of assisting these landowners in development of marketable
timber and in the management of timber harvest. It is estimated that less than 12 percent
of Kentucky's annual harvest of some 800 million board feet is managed by a
professional plan.137
134 More detailed information on the EQC initiative and RAM 124 may be obtained from:
[http://www.state.ky.us/agencies/eqc/mineresolution.html] and [http://www.coaleducation.org/reg-
agcm/RAM 124 .HTM].
135 AEP has a rather extensive program in several states, particularly in Ohio. For more details see
[http://www.aep.com/whatsnew/apetree.html].
136 More detailed information and an application form for assistance may be obtained
from: [http://www.pski.com/kdf/fsp.html].
137 Ibid., [http://www.pski.com/kdf/fsp.html]
120
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The status of forest conservation in Kentucky has recently been reviewed by
Duane Bistow who, like all who take the effort the make a serious study of the topic,
notes the need for a concerted effort on the part of the government and the public.138 The
Division of Forestry brings focus to this effort, as does legislation enacted during the
1998 session of the General Assembly (Kentucky Forest Conservation Act).
7.4 Policy Options for Enhancement of Carbon Sequestration
It is probable that many who read this document and associated literature will,
after a few minutes of thought, ask a simple question. "Why do we need policy options
to make trees and grasses grow? They will do it anyway." This is an entirely reasonable
question, and it is based on a premise that is absolutely correct. It is the nature of living
systems, in this case plant life of all sorts, to reproduce and replace the fallen at every
opportunity. Indeed, the spreadsheet developed for the Phase II study takes this into
account in determining net emissions by applying the sequestration rate found for 1990 as
a constant through 2020 (see Section 3.4.24).
The analysis developed in Chapter 7 suggests an increase in carbon sequestion in
2020 to 55,358,097 tons CO2 per year for rural forest. In addition, policy initiatives to
encourage forestation on urban-built lands might provide another 2,728,879 tons per year
for a total of 58,086,976. The difference between this figure and the rate determined for
1990 is 58,086,976-38,211,999= 19,874,977 tons per year. It is believed that this
difference will in part (mostly due to rural forest) develop naturally. However, the
difference can be enhanced through encouragement of sequestration policies and, if so,
such enhancements can and should be accounted for in terms of emission reductions in
the year 2020.
7.4.1 Policy options for enhancement of urban forest
Urban forest and community forest are not as well understood in terms of
ecosystem relationships, and in terms of the relationship between an urban populace and
138 Bristow, Duane; Forest Conservation in Kentucky; [http://www.webcom.com/duane/wood/state.html]
last revised November 12, 1996. This is a very readible text containing details from forest surveys 1975
and 1988. A brief history is also provided based largely on the work by Paul Camplin entitiled "Forestry in
Kentucky" which was published in 1966.
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its associated forest. One option for government policy makers that could benefit all in
the future would be to fund research in this area. Based on better information and
understanding, it is conceivable that a modest program of research followed by judicious
programs for tree planting, and for the care of existing forest, could easily result in 10
percent of the projection for urban forest potential (Section 7.1) being obtained for a
reduction of 272,888 tons of CO2 per year by the year 2020. The programs would be in
support of the existing Urban Forestry Assistance Program offered by the Kentucky
Division of Forestry.139
Efforts armed with an extensive database derived from funded research, and
empowered through expanded staff in the Division of Forestry, could undertake more
aggresive projects for street tree surveys, park forest land tree surveys and urban tree
planting and maintenance programs. A more aggressive program, if extended to all
sectors and possibilities for urban and community forest systems, could result in all of the
potential for urban forest being developed. This would be equivalent to a reduction in
CO2 emissions of 2,728,879 tons per year by the 2020.
7.4.2 Policy options for enhancement of rural forest
Opportunities for enhancement of carbon sequestration in the rural setting are far
more extensive than for urban-built lands. Here, however, the circumstance is
complicated by a diversity in forest land ownership. Extensive urban-community forest
systems are found in parks and along roadways and streets. These can be managed
through the government agency responsible to the immediate community. Privately
owned trees in the urban setting are also a significant source. These cannot be managed
in the sense of a park land forest, but they can be improved through assistance and
information programs such as available through the Division of Forestry. The State's
rural forests, however, present a somewhat different problem. Here, as noted previously,
ownership is divided among 400,000 entities with only a small percentage being
managed by government agencies.
139 Contact Kentucky Division of Forestry , 627 Comanche Trail, Frankfort, KY 40601, (502) 564-4496 for
additional information concerning this assistance program.
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A modest program going just beyond the current Forest Stewardship Program and
Division of Forestry reforestation programs could reasonably be expected to provide at
least 5 percent of the benefits projected above, for a reduction in emissions equivalent to
2,767,905 tons per year. A more aggressive program supported first by funded research
seeking accurate and current tree and harvest statistics for the State could achieve far
more. It is conceivable that such a program coupled with: expanded staff and budgets in
the Division of Forestry; selective return and management of crop and pasture land to
forest; regulation of timber harvest practices insuring protection of soil carbon and
enhancement of new growth; and extension of RAM 124 techniques to all potential
mining sites could easily reduce CO2 emissions by the full amount projected for 2020 if
put in place by 2000. This would be equivalent to 55,358,097 tons CO2 per year.
Assuming that a reduction of 38,211,999 tons per year would take place anyway (1990
baseline), and then further assuming the State will only be given credit for the difference
due to new policies in place and enforced as of 2000, still leaves 17,146,098 tons CO2 per
year to be counted toward reductions.
7.5 Summary of Carbon Sequestration Issues
The issues surrounding carbon sequestration have been given a fairly complete
review in Chapter 7. It was anticipated at the outset of the study, given that fully 50
percent of the Commonwealth is covered by forest, and that these forest were fueling a $3
billion per year timber industry, that this would be an important issue. What is offered are
initiatives designed to take advantage of the huge benefit offered by the extent Kentucky
forest which.
It is proposed that the EQC launch a "common sense initiative" directed toward
the maximization of carbon sequestration on Kentucky lands. A diverse committee of
experts and stakeholders would develop recommendations for the following activities:
management of crop and pasture land returning to forest; management of privately-
owned timberland, including harvesting methods; and management of the urban forest.
It seems appropriate to bring this all into some focus. The benefits of such an initiative to
the Commonwealth and its citizen would be enormous.
The General Assembly of the Commonwealth of Kentucky enacted legislation
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in 1998 designed to ensure the future of Kentucky's forest. The legislation is entitled the
Kentucky Forest Conservation Act. The Act promotes long-term timber production,
detailed resource surveys, economic development of forest resources and, in general,
promotes the continuance of healthy, high-quality forest. The Act dose not list
enhancement of carbon sequestration as a specific goal, but many features of this
important land-mark legislation do contribute to sequestration none-the-less.
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8. SUMMARY AND DISCUSSION
The strategies described in Chapters 6 and 7 are summarized in Table 13 on the
following page along with their attendant reductions of greenhouse gas emissions.
Emission reductions for the set of modest policy options totals 13,188,142 tons of CO2
per year in the year 2020. Subtraction of this figure from the baseline emissions for 2020
of 256,728,755 gives 243,640,613 tons per year for 2020, which is 19 percent above the
inventory value for 1990 of 205,520,311 tons per year determined in Phase I of the study.
The maximum effort policy initiatives would result in reductions of 51,776,830
tons of CO2 per year in the year 2020. Subtraction of this figure from the baseline
emissions for 2020 gives 204,951,918 tons per year for 2020, which is essentially the
same as the 1990 inventory value. For all intents and purposes, it can be stated that the
maximum effort initiatives do indeed meet a goal of holding 2020 emissions to 1990
levels.140
A discussion of some of the major issues concerning the proposed mitigation
strategies follows the summary Table 13.
140 Phase I and II studies required extensive spreadsheet calculations. The only way to keep track of these
calculations, and to confirm when necessary just exactly how a calculation was made, was to keep and print
the numbers as generated. In practice none are more accurate than just a few significant digits and should
be rounded accordingly.
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Table 13. Summary Table: Strategies for Reducing Greenhouse Gases for the
Commonwealth of Kentucky for the Period 2000 through 2020
Sector
Policy Options to Reduce Greenhouse
Modest
Max. Effort
Gas Emissions
Options
Options
(tons C02 per
(tons C02 per
year)
year)
Residential
Enforcement of building codes
231,255
952,022
Home Energy Rating System (HERS)
66,909
509,378
Solar heating for low temp, applications
28,984
130,119
Solar electric systems
11,538
82,085
Commercial
Enforcement of building codes
583,074
2,332,296
Energy efficiency in government
94,227
456,336
buildings
Solar heating for low temp, applications
21,805
94,227
Solar electric systems
9,176
58,460
Industrial
Expanded IAC/KPPC programs
113,288
5,531,419
Solar heating for low temp, applications
77,403
372,214
Recovery of HFC-23 byproduct
3,131,004
6,258,309
Coal-bed methane recovery
23,349
200,194
Landfill gas recovery
720,000
1,440,000
Transportation
Feebates for fuel efficient vehicles
1,244,404
2,392,272
Utilities
Shift coal to gas (NGCC/IGCC/AFT)
3,652,701
10,950,702
Agriculture
Manure management
38,232
141,827
Carbon seq.
Urban forest management programs
272,888
2,728,879
Rural forest management programs
2,767,905
17,146,098
Totals
Totals reductions due to for policy options
13,188,142
51,776,830
2020 Baseline corrected for reductions
243,640,613
204,951,918
2020 Baseline minus base sequestration
205,440,613
166,751,918
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8.1 Re-Powering (Fuel Switching) Initiatives for the Utility Industry
The "re-powering" initiative described in Chapter 6 calls for the construction of
seven to eight 400 MW facilities over the period 2000 to 2020. By any description, this
would be considered a major undertaking. The planning and design of such a project, in
whole or in part, is well beyond the scope of this study, although recognition of the need
for this effort does originate here. It is suggested that, if this initiative is considered
viable, a group be formed of experts and interested parties to undertake a feasibility
study. Many choices and decisions will need to be made in the process of achieving this
goal.
One feature of the initiative proposed above should not be overlooked. It is true
that the proposal does call for replacement of a substantial portion of the utility coal-base
with a gaseous clean burning fuel. It is also true, however, that the initiative leaves open
the possibility of keeping coal in the fuel feed line at its original level through IGCC and
AFT/IGCC systems.
8.2 Implications of the Kyoto agreements
The United States was a recent participant in the conference in Kyoto, Japan
where, after lengthy debate, it was agreed that the U. S. would try to bring its emissions
down to seven (7) percent below 1990 emissions levels by the year 2012. The agreement
is not binding but does provide us with a useful tool for evaluation of various mitigating
strategies. The emission rate determined for the Commonwealth from its 1990 database
was 205,520,310 equivalent tons of CO2 per year.141 Reductions to seven (7) percent
below this figure by 2012 require that the state bring emissions down to 191,000,000
equivalent tons of CO2 by that date. Base case projections for 2012 derived from the
policy analysis spreadsheet discussed in Chapter 3 give an emission rate of 243,540,673
141 Spencer, Hugh T., Kentucky Greenhouse Gas Inventory: Estimated Emissions and Sinks for the Year
1990, The Kentucky Natural Resources and Environmental Protection Cabinet, Division of Energy and the
KIESD, Center for Environmental Engineering, University of Louisville, with funds from US EPA Office
of Policy, Planning and Evaluation, Federal Assistance No. CX822849-01-0, p. 9, 1996.
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tons CO2 per year, a figure in excess of the 191,000,000 target by 53,000,000 tons CO2
per year.
An analysis conducted with the policy analysis spreadsheet developed for the
Phase II study suggests that Kyoto agreement figures can be met in Kentucky, but only
when initiatives that go well beyond the maximum effort policy options outlined in
Chapter 6 are applied. Energy end-use efficiency measures and transportation fuel
efficiencies 3 to 4 fold beyond the maximum effort would have to be applied. In
addition, it would prove necessary to re-power at least 60 percent of the utility coal-base
with natural gas or gasified coals to be used in IGCC and AFT systems. Thus, it does
appear that the undertaking would prove difficult to accomplish. In addition, it should be
noted that the General Assembly of the Commonwealth of Kentucky has passed on
legislation that specifically prohibits the promulgation of regulations pursuant to the
142
Kyoto agreements.
8.3 Economic considerations
Further evaluation of the economics of the suggested policy options is probably
not a realistic possibility for this study. Complex macroeconomics economic models are
currently being applied to resolve a number of economic issues but some those most
frequently employed are not designed to evaluate GHG mitigation policies. The REMI-
EDFS model, for example, is a popular regional macroeconomic model used to assess the
impacts that shifts in demography, local initiatives and external events may have on local
economies. The REMI-EDFS model could be of benefit if provided for a given policy
initiative with direct costs, costs of benefits and other external costs. The model is
expensive ($46,000 to purchase and $12,500 to rent for three months) and generally
requires an economist with experience in modeling to be the operator.143 Some smaller
less expensive models are also available (IMPLAN at $2,000 to $3,000 for a state
database), but these also lack the ability to evaluate GHG mitigation strategies directly.
IMPLAN also suffers in its inability to account for changes in relative prices of goods,
142 SB 300 entered February 12, 1998 creating a new section of subchapter 20 of KRS Chapter 224.
143 Summary Review of Models for Analyzing and Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions at the State Level,
Prepared for US EPA State/Local Climate Change Program by the ICF Consulting Group, September 8,
1997, p. 20.
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time shifts and supply constraints, features critical for analyzing energy related
phenomena. For these reasons, and given the budget constraints for the Kentucky Phase
II project, it was decided to approach the economic analysis for various mitigation
strategies on the basis of routine engineering design economics, although this as well
proved difficult. Consider, for example, the cost-to-benefit ratio for placing 1,000 acres
of cropland in a carbon sequestration "bank." The costs for re-seeding the land with
productive hardwood stock will run $200 to $300 per acre. Taking $250 as the average
gives $250,000 as the need for initial capital. In addition, there is also the cost of taking
this land out of production for crops for a forty-year period, assuming that we intend to
harvest the wood stand at that time. It is at this point that the analysis begins to become
difficult. If, for example, we propose to take 1,000 acres of productive tobacco land out
of service we have to deal with a loss in the first year of $2,200 net return per acre, or of
a sum $2,200,000 for the total of 1000 acres. This is not a small sum, and it is for only
one year. On the other hand, if we take 1,000 acres of corn crop out of production, the
loss in the first year will be only $120 net per acre, or $120,000 total. The net present
worth of the losses due to lack of crop production would, of course, developed over a
forty-year period would be much, much greater. Indeed, it is difficult to believe that
return on the initial investment could possibly equal such a sum.
The return of less productive land to forest, or of tobacco land if that crop ceases
to be grown in quantity in Kentucky, is a different story. Cubbage et. al. suggest that the
net present value of land returned to forest can be as high as $1,563 per acre for
landowners who receive assistance in planning and re-seeding at the outset.144 This then
suggests that lands with minimal agricultural value can be productively cultivated for
forest so long as the long time frame for return is acceptable.
The secondary economic benefits that come with the 1,000-acre "carbon bank"
must also be considered, but here the accounting becomes more speculative. It is
anticipated that our carbon bank will preserve jobs in the coal industry if utilized to offset
144 See Cubbage, F. W., Public and Private Forest Policies to Increase Forest Area Timber Growth:
Programs, Accompolishments, and Efficiency, as printed in Forest and Global Change, Volume 2: Forest
Management Opportunities for Mitigating Carbon Emissions by R. N. Sampson and Dwight Hair,
American Forest, P.O. Box 2000, Washington, DC, 20013, ISBN 0-935050-05-1, p. 147, 1996. The data
cited by Cubbage in this article comes from work done from 1983 through 1987.
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demands for reduction in coal production due to future emissions restrictions, and that it
will be of benefit to economic development in other sectors of the Kentucky economy as
well. The questions that need answers are "Which sectors?" and "How much?"; and, if
we are to believe that global climate change is due in some part to human activity, we
must also determine the benefit derived from our 1,000 acres for ameliorating the impact-
—truly an impossible figure to develop, but quite possibly the most important in the long
run.
It appears probable that the economic benefits derived from a carbon
sequestration program, from conversion of coal resources to marketable clean burning
gases, and from energy efficiency will never be known exactly. However, it is also
apparent that application of a proper selection from the policy options offered will at the
least do two things: (1) the Commonwealth will likely be in compliance with any future
and binding international agreements to reduce greenhouse gases and, as a result, (2)
Kentucky's industries, businesses and government will by that time be well on the way to
becoming some of the most competitive and cost effective in the world. These goals,
however, cannot be achieved without effort. It is possible that some industries,
particularly those closely associated with coal production and coal mining operations
themselves, may for a time be subjected to severe economic regional decline as a result of
constraints driven by climate change. These same industries, however, could also derive
enormous benefits from research and designs directed toward developing clean coal
technologies. If so, these industries too will in time be found among the more productive
and competitive.
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9. REPORT APPENDICES
9.1 Glossary of Terms and Abbreviations
9.2 Policy Initiatives Worksheet
9.3 Urban Forest Development Worksheet
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9.1 Glossary of terms and abbreviations
AFT— Advanced Fuel Technology. This term appears in association with AFT-IGCC
coal-waste to clean gas conversion systems. In its regular use it applies to AFT
briquettes.
CAA — Clean Air Act. CAA is used herein to represent the CAA as amended in 1990.
The Clean Air Act was enacted in 1970 and subsequently modified in 1977.
IGCC—Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle. This term finds application in
General Electric's literature describing the GE - IGCC system, usually in association with
coal gasification and a GE gas turbine. In the case of AFT-IGCC systems the gas comes
from gasification of a coal-waste mixture. The waste stream can come from either
industrial or domestic supply, provided it is combustible, or from sewage sludge.
NCAQ — National Commission on Air Quality. The CAA Amendments of 1977
empowered Congress to establish a commission to make an independent analysis
pollution control and alternate strategies for achieving the goals of the Act. The
commission had thirteen members and was charged with the collection and evaluation of
information relating to environmental, technological, social and scientific issues pertinent
to air quality policy.
PSD — Prevent Significant Deterioration. PSD areas were established through the 1977
Amendments for the sake of preventing deterioration of air quality in areas that, at the
time of the enactment, were already cleaner than required by national air quality
standards.
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OTAG — Ozone Transport Assessment Group. The Environmental Council of the
States along with US EPA formed this group from the environmental agencies from the
thirty-seven easternmost states.
OTC — Ozone Transport Commission. The group established to manage the OTR. It
consists of twelve state governors or their designees, and a representative from
Washington, DC.
OTR — Ozone Transport Region. The OTR was established by Congress through the
1990 Clean Air Act Amendments. It consists of the eleven northeastern states plus parts
of Virginia, and the District of Columbia.
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9.2 Policy Initiatives Worksheet
The "Policy Initiatives Worksheet" is a complex Excel 7.0© spreadsheet derived
from the US EPA Workbook employed in developing the 1990 inventory for Kentucky.
The original 1990 Inventory spreadsheet was constructed on a county basis, as is the
Policy Initiatives spreadsheet shown below. Collectively, these various Excel©
spreadsheets hold some 30,000 data items and line operations. The worksheet shown is
for Policy Set V, Table 13. It is one of many possible examples.
Column A provides information for adjoining cells in Column B. Column C
provides information for adjoining cells in Columns D, E and F. A summary of these
informational statements is given below according to cell citation.
For Columns A and B:
Al. The year of projection shown in this example is 2010.
A2. The number of years projected is 20 counting from 1990.
A4. The gross emissions projected for 2010 given the specifications listed in Columns C,
D, E and F.
A5. The net carbon sequestration for urban and timberland recovery counting from
January 1, 2000 through December 31, 2010.
A6. (The study year - 1999) 10. This term is used to assess the fraction of
sequestration benefit to be applied from January 1, 2000 to December 31 of the target
year.
A7. Net emissions rate at the end of the study year assuming the policy initiatives listed
in Column C take effect January 1, 2000.
A9. The target emissions rate is the 1990 inventory figure less 7 percent as per the Kyoto
proposal. We are to be at this rate by the end of the year 2012.
A12. The deficit between the 2010 emissions rate and the Kyoto proposal. This is the
deficit present with two years of corrective action to go.
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A16. The policy initiatives spread sheet was originally written for the period 1990 to the
study or projected year. It was changed during the course of the study to have policy
initiative effects apply beginning on January 1, 2000. This requires that the benefits
calculated for the period 1990 to December 31, 1999 be subtracted away. The correction
for this particular set of initiatives is shown in cell B16.
A17-A25. These cells contain reminders advising the user how to proceed in developing
the correction applied through cell B16.
For columns C, D and E:
Column C provides the policy initiative in verbal form, Column D gives this
information as a percentage of improvement. The figures in Column D for the Base Case
are discussed at length in Chapter 3. Column E provides a multiplier for the percentages
listed in Column D. Any of thousands of combinations of initiatives can be tried here be
simply changing the figures in Column D. For example, in the set shown, the multiplier
for "Increase in efficiency for residential use" is 5. This has the effect of multiplying the
figure in cell D3 (10 percent) by 5 to give a 50 percent improvement by the end of 2010.
The 50 percent figure is shown in cell F3.
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A
B
C
D
E
F
1
study year
2010
base
policy
2020%
2
years projected
20
2020%
mult.
3
Increase in efficiency for residential fuel use
10
5
50
4
emissions T C02/yr.
222,419,351
Emissions per unit of transportation fuel drop by
10
5
50
5
net carbon seq. delta
16,863,893
Efficiency in transportation fuel use increases by
10
5
50
6
seq. delta mult.
1.1
Increase in efficiency for commercial fuel use
10
5
50
7
net rate tons/yr
203,869,068
Increase in efficiency for industrial fuel use
10
5
50
8
Annual increase in gross domestic product (%)
1.5
1
9
target
191,133,888
Increase in gross domestic product by 2020
45.00
NA
45
10
Increase in efficiency for residential electricity use
10
5
50
11
Increase in efficiency for commercial electricity use
10
5
50
12
deficit
12,735,180
Increase in efficiency for industrial electricity use
10
5
50
13
Annual increase in electricity demand (%)
1.4
1
14
Increase in elec. without baseline reductions (%)
42.00
NA
15
Increase in elec. with baseline reductions (%)
29.75
NA
29.75
16
rem: correction in
S28
38,810,431
Reduction in direct coal-fired elec. BTU
50
17
must be frozen at its
Portion shifted to natural gas-coal gas conversion
90
18
1999 value.
Portion shifted to wind
0
19
Portion shifted to solar
0
20
Type =S28 in cell
B16
Portion shifted to oil
10
21
with year = 1999 and
22
with test data set.
Resultant elec. BTU split for 2020 AD:
23
Freeze this value.
natural gas-coal gas conversion
44.95
24
Then proceed
through
oil
5.41
25
the years 2000 to
2010.
hydro
0.24
26
coal
49.67
27
solar
0
28
wind
0
29
30
Increase in biomass use for power and heat
10
1
10
31
Drop in cfc/hcfc losses
20
4
80
32
Drop hcfc-22 by-product losses
20
5
100
33
Annual increase in coal production
0.5
1
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34
Increase in coal production (%)
15
NA
15
35
Drop in emissions due to methane capture
5
1
5
36
Drop in emissions due to fertilizer
10
1
10
37
Drop in emissions due to landfills
10
5
50
39
Drop in emissions due to sewer systems
10
1
10
40
Drop in emissions due to manure management
10
1
10
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9.3 Urban Forest Development Worksheet
The article "Construction of a National Urban Forest Model" by Sampson and
Kielbaso as it appeared (Appendix 5) in Forest and Global Change: Volume I
Opportunities for Increasing Forest Cover; an American Forest Publication, P. O. Box
2000, Washington, DC 20013 was re-typed for presentation herein without change or
alteration. The spreadsheet which follows is from the adaptation of this model to
Kentucky with a projection time frame extending out to 2010.
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Construction of a National Urban Forest Impact Model
by R. Neil Sampson and J. James Kielbaso
We have developed a simple spreadsheet model to assist in the calculation and
display of the benefits that Urban and community forests bring in terms of energy
conservation and carbon sequestration. In so doing, we have leaned heavily on data that
are often very thin and made assumptions that need to be refined by further research. The
advantages of the model, however, are that we can enter a new data and new assumptions
rather easily and get immediate changes that help us determine how sensitive the model is
to each input.
The following pages reproduce the model and provide extensive notes that should
help reviewers follow the assumptions and logic that were utilized in the process. At this
stage, it is important to treat this model as a working tool and not as a reliable predictive
calculator. As such, it fits into the family of working tools being developed to calculate
and illustrate the opportunities for improving trees and forests in the United States as one
of the strategies for addressing the global climate change issue. Since a great deal of
work and improvement are occurring in each of the technical areas involved, it will be
important to continue research efforts on urban and community forests in order that this
area of knowledge grow and improve rapidly enough to keep up with improvements in
other aspects of forestry and energy conservation.
Notes to the Model
1. The percent of urban land in four general land-use categories is taken as an average of
several research reports dating from the 1960's to the present. See, for example,
Goodman and Freund (1968), Murphy (1966), Rowntree (1984), and Talarchek et al.
(1985). Where these urban land-use studies included significant amounts of
agricultural and vacant land within the urban area, that land was removed from the
calculation and the percentages reported were adjusted accordingly because it is felt
that agricultural and vacant land parcels larger than 10 acres, even when they are
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contained within an urban area, would not be included in the urban and builtup
classification reported by the Soil Conservation Service.
2. The total urban and builtup land base against which these percentages are applied is
the 50.3 million acres estimated to exist in 1987 (U.S. Department of Agriculture,
Soil Conservation Service 1990 Unpubl.).
3. Percentages of available growing space were calculated by averaging the data
developed in Syracuse, NY; Dayton, OH; Cincinnati, OH; and Birmingham, AL, by
Rowntree(1984) and in New Orleans by Talarchek et al. (1985).
4-5. Based on the available growing space estimates calculated as indicated in note 3, and
the acres of land in each use, one can derive the estimate that about half of the
available growing space in America's urban areas exists in residential areas, with
over
another one-quarter associated with the transportation system.
6. Current canopy cover estimates are developed from Rowntree (1984) and Talarchek
et al. (1985) and represent the percentage of the available growing space occupied by
canopy.
7. Canopy cover potential for the various land-uses is estimated by the authors as a
realistic goal for improving urban and community forests.
8. Trees per acre of available growing space are estimated from the canopy cover data
and are based on our assumption that 100 percent canopy cover would be reached
with a tree population of roughly 100 per acre. Existing residential areas include the
oldest and most well-established areas in communities, so the estimated number of
trees per acre is slightly less than the estimated percentage of canopy cover, to reflect
the existence of the older, larger trees.
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9. Potential trees per acre of available growing space reflect the percentage of canopy
cover sought, recognizing that these will be newly planted trees, in somewhat closer
spacing than exists in some of the old, well-established areas.
10-14. Current trees, potential trees, percent increase, planting needs and planting per
year
for a 10 year program to fill the planting potential are calculated directly from the
acreage estimate and the estimates of trees per acre of available growing space.
15. Replacement plantings are the number of trees that would be required if average tree
life were 50 years (an optimistic estimate, given current surveys) and trees were
replaced promptly when they died (another optimistic scenario, in most communities
today). We feel that this is not an unrealistic goal, however.
16. Tons of biomass per tree are estimated from Wenger (1984) and Smith (1985). An
average green aboveground biomass for nine hardwood species in West Virginia is
given in Wenger (table 48). Conversion factors from green to dry weight for these
species are contained in Smith's paper. The aboveground dry weights were increased
by 20 percent to account for stump and root weights. Average dry biomass weight for
the 9 species was divided by 2 to get average carbon weight. For a tree 12 inches in
diameter at breast height, the calculation resulted in an average of 684 lb of dry
carbon per tree.
17-18. Tons of soil carbon per treed acre and per grassed acre are taken from Birdsey's
estimates, and Persons' work on Forest Service data for the Southeast. These data
need further research and refinement before they can be assumed to represent national
conditions, but they appear to be the best currently available.
19-27. The current and potential situation calculations come from the factors contained
above. For example, carbon storage contained in trees within residential areas (line
19, first data column) was obtained by multiplying 407 million trees times 0.35 tons
141
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carbon per tree. It should be noted that in this calculation, the total tons were divided
by 1 million to give million-ton estimates that compare to the national carbon-
emission
estimates. Rounding these calculations to the nearest million tons probably still
over reflects the degree of certainty involved in the basic data.
28. National carbon emissions from the various land-uses were estimated by taking the
percentage contributions for each land-use category estimated by DiCicco et al.
(1990) and adjusting them for the total national estimate provided by Boden et al.
(1990).
29. The added annual storage potential of urban trees and urban soils was calculated as 2
percent of the increased storage achieved by planting the new trees to reach the
potential estimated for the different land-uses, at the current acreage levels.
30. The annual carbon emission reductions for air conditioning in residential areas was
calculated by estimating that 9 percent of the carbon emissions in those areas is the
result of air conditioning (DeCicco et al 1990) and that the potential savings as a
result of improved tree cover could be 15 percent (Akbari et al. In press). For
commerce and industry, air conditioning was estimated to generate 5 percent of total
emissions and be susceptible to a 10 percent savings due to tree improvement.
31. The annual carbon emission reductions for heating were calculated by estimating that
37 percent of the total emissions are the result of space heating (DeCicco et al. 1990)
and that savings from trees could be 10 percent on average. For commerce and
industry, it was estimated that space heating produced 10 percent of emissions and
that a 5 percent saving was possible.
32. Estimates for "other" savings were calculated as follows: Residential - 39 percent of
total emissions involved, a potential savings of 1 percent is feasible;
Commerce/Industry - 10 percent of emissions involved, potential savings 1 percent:
142
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Transportation - 73 percent of emissions involved (autos and trucks), potential
savings 1 percent; Public Facilities - 10 percent of total emissions for all land-uses, 1
percent savings possible. These savings should be realized through reduction of the
urban heat island and associated pollution reduction.
33. The annual savings estimate as a percent of the annual emission estimate is
calculated.
34-37. These calculations assume that the rate of urban and builtup development
documented for 1982-087 by the Soil Conservation Service's National Resources
Inventories continues for the next 20 years, that the currently estimated percentage
breakdown of urban land-uses continues unchanged, and that the available growing
space within the various land-use categories in the future is the same as what we have
estimated for the present. All of these assumptions are subject to challenge:
economic
pressures could change any of them and the estimates of current situations need to be
firmed up by better research.
38. The tree-planting need per year would be the amount of trees needed to plant an
average of 1 tree per acre on the available growing space for each percent of canopy
cover that is sought. A portion of this tree-planting need can be met by tree
preservation because where a health tree can be retained during the development
process, not only is the tree space filled but it is filled with a larger, better established,
and more immediately beneficial specimen. It is only fair to note, however much we
would like to see trees saved during development, that getting the "right tree in the
right place' is not always possible on the basis of what already exists, even with the
most skillful urban designs. There are many times when removing the existing trees
and replacing them with the right species in the right location will provide the most
benefits over the life of both the trees and the development.
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39. Carbon sequestration was calculated as an average sequestration rate per tree of 13 lb
per year, and converting it to millions of tons per year 2010 by multiplying the
number of trees planted per year times 20 years (for the cumulative effect of 20 years
of tree planting that should be growing by 2010), and dividing by 2,000 and
1,000,000 to convert from pounds per year to million tons per year.
40. Energy conservation impacts of trees in new developments were calculated as
occurring in the same ratio to carbon sequestration as had been computed for current
forest impacts in the land-use. For Residential, that means calculating the ratio
between the saving s(notes 31-33) and the sequestration (note 29). That comes out to
a ratio of about 3.5 when averaged across all land-uses.
41. The total is the sum of 39 and 40.
42-43. These add the totals form existing acreage (between 32 and 33) to the totals for
properly afforesting new development (39-41) to get an estimate of the annual benefit
stream that might be realized after 20 years of a continued effort to improve urban
and
community forests. No attempt was made to express the potential 2010 carbon
impacts in terms of their percentage impact upon national output, because there was
no basis upon which to evaluate the potential U.S. output levels by 2010.
44. No attempt was made to express the potential 2010 carbon impacts in terms of their
percentage impact upon national output because there was no basis upon which to
evaluate the potential U.S. output levels by 2010.
References Cited by R. Neil Sampson and J. James Kielbaso
Akbari, H.; Huang, J.; Davis, S.E. [In press.] Cooling our cities: the heat-island
reduction guidebook. Washington, DC: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
144
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American Association of Nurserymen. 1990. The American standard for nursery stock.
Washington, DC: American Association of Nurserymen. 33p.
Boden, T.A.; Kanciruk, P.; Farrell, M.P. 1990. Trends '90: a compendium of data on
global change. ORNL/CDIAC-36. Oak Ridge, TN: Oak Ridge National Laboratory,
Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center. 286 p.
DeCicco, J.; Cook, J.; Bolze, D.; Beyea, J. 1990. CO2 diet for a greenhouse planet; a
citizen's guide for slowing global warming. New York; National Audubon Society. 76 p.
Goodman, William I.; Freund, Eric C., eds. 1968. Principles and practice of urban
planning. Washington, DC: International City Managers' Association. 622 p.
Murphy, Raymond E. 1966. The American city: an urban geography. New York:
McGraw-Hill. 195 p.
Rowntree, Rowan A. 1984. Forest canopy cover and land use in four Eastern United
States cities. Urban Ecology 8: 55-67.
Smith, W. Brad. 1985. Factors and equations to estimate forest biomass in the North
Central region. Res. Pap. NC-268. St. Paul, MN: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest
Service, North Central Forest Experiment Station. 6 p.
Talarcheck, Gary M.; Henderson, Martha; Bell, Michelle; Dunnings, Lance; Ross,
Reginald. 1985. The new Orleans urban forest: structure and management. New
Orleans: Xavier University. 104 p.
Wenger, Karl E., ed. 1984. Forestry handbook, 2d ed. New Your: John Wiley & Sons:
318-319.
References Cited - Unpublished
145
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U.S. Department of Agriculture, soil Conservation Service. 1990. Summary report:
1987 National Resources Inventory. Unpublished data.
146
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Footnote
Resident.
Com/Ind.
Transport.
Public fac.
Totals
Estimate of built-urban acres
1,000,000
Current land use and forest condition
1
Percent urban land
45
14
30
11
100
2
Estimated acres (1987)
450,000
140,000
300,000
110,000
1,000,000
3
Avail, growing space(AGS)%
45
25
40
80
44
4
AGS (acres)
202,500
35,000
120,000
88,000
440,000
5
Land use as % of AGS
46
8
27
20
100
Forest improvement potential
6
Canopy-Current (%)
50
22
10
45
7
Canopy-Potential(%)
60
30
30
50
8
Trees/AGS Acre-Current
40
20
10
30
9
Trees/AGS Acre-Potential
60
30
30
50
Existing urban acreage
10
Trees-Current
8,100,000
700,000
1,200,000
2,640,000
12,640,000
11
Trees-Potential
12,150,000
1,050,000
3,600,000
4,400,000
21,200,000
12
Increase-Percent
50
50
200
67
68
13
Planting needs
4,050,000
350,000
2,400,000
1,760,000
8,560,000
14
Planting/year (10 years)
405,000
35,000
240,000
176,000
856,000
15
Replacement plants/yr (1/50)
347,143
30,000
102,857
125,714
605,714
Carbon sequestration estimates
16
Tons carbon/tree
0.35
0.35
0.35
0.35
17
Tons soil C/AGS treed acre
20
20
20
20
18
Tons soil C/AGS grass acre
10
10
10
10
Current situation-existing acreage
19
Current situation-existing acreage
2.835
0.245
0.42
0.924
4.424
20
Soils-treed (M/Ton)
2.025
0.154
0.24
0.792
3.211
21
Soils-grassed (M/Ton)
1.0125
0.273
1.08
0.484
2.8495
Total carbon storage
5.8725
0.672
1.74
2.2
10.4845
Potential situation-existing acreage
22
Carbon storage-trees (M/Ton)
4.2525
0.3675
1.26
1.54
7.42
23
Soils-treed (M/Ton)
2.43
0.21
0.72
0.88
4.24
24
Soils-grassed (M/Ton)
0.81
0.245
0.84
0.44
2.335
25
Total carbon storage
7.4925
0.8225
2.82
2.86
13.995
26
Increased storage (M/Ton)
1.62
0.1505
1.08
0.66
3.5105
27
Increased storage %
27.5862
22.3958
62.069
30
33.4828
Current carbon pollution estimates
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28
Carbon emission (M/Tons/yr)
1.6364
26.4545
8.1818
0.7255
36.998
Estimated impacts-existing acreage
29
Added C storage potential/yr.
0.0324
0.003
0.0216
0.0132
0.0702
Energy savings potential
(M/Tons/Year)
30
Air conditioning
0.0221
0.1323
0.1544
31
Heating
0.0605
0.1323
0.1928
32
Other
0.0064
0.0265
0.0597
0.037
0.1296
Total savings potential
0.089
0.291
0.0597
0.037
0.4767
Total carbon offset/year
0.1214
0.294
0.0813
0.0502
0.547
Carbon reduction/year
33
as % of national total
7.42
1.1114
0.994
6.9195
1.4783
Potential impact-afforesting new
development
34
Annual development acreage
7,158
2,227
4,772
1,750
15,908
35
AGS%
45
25
40
80
44
36
AGS acres
3,221
557
1,909
1,400
6,999
37
Canopy cover (%)
60
30
30
50
38
Tree planting need/year
193,277
16,703
57,267
69,993
337,241
Annual impact by 2010-new
development
39
Carbon sequestration (M/T/Y)
0.0126
0.0011
0.0037
0.0045
0.0219
40
Energy conservation
0.044
0.0038
0.013
0.0159
0.0767
Total carbon impact from
complete reforestation of
21
10 years growth
0.0565
0.0049
0.0168
0.0205
0.0986
Total impacts-Planting existing area
plus
43
new developments per year by 2010
0.045
0.0041
0.0253
0.0177
0.0921
44
Energy conservation
0.133
0.2948
0.0728
0.0529
0.5535
Total annual impact
0.178
0.2989
0.0981
0.0707
0.6456
Total annual urban removal
as tons of C02 per year
652,490
1,095,951
359,619
259,128
2,367,188
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