United States Environmental Protection Agency Office of Research and Development National Exposure Research Laboratory Research Abstract Government Performance Results Act (GPRA) Goal 4 Annual Performance Measure 275 Significant Research Findings: Decision-support tool for Mid-Atlantic that enables assessment of impacts associated with alternative land use, air deposition, and resource extraction scenarios: ReVA's (Regional Vulnerability Assessment Program's) Web-based Environmental Decision Toolkit (EDT) - Public Version Scientific Decision-makers and the general public lack information about projected future Problem and stresses and their potential cumulative impacts. This type of information is useful Policy Issues for prioritizing risk management actions and strategic planning, as well as providing insights into the implications of society's actions. Broad scale drivers of ecological change (land use, resource extraction, spread of non-indigenous species, and changes in pollution) provide a backdrop against which decision-makers need to act. Projections of these changes can be modified to explore implications of alternative management options. Research The EDT represents the culmination of a number of years of research to: 1) Approach accumulate and prepare available spatial data for the region, 2) develop landscape models to predict exposures, 3) develop and evaluate synthesis methods for spatial data, and 4) forecast major drivers of change for the region to 2020. All methods and models have been extensively reviewed and published separately; data from other federal agencies have been through quality assurance/quality control (QA/QC) procedures. Interactive sections of the EDT allow users to explore alternative policy, mitigation, and restoration implications. To estimate the impacts of forecast changes, the ReVA team combined projections of land use change, resource extractions (such as logging and mining activities), changes in air pollution, and spread of non-indigenous (invasive) species that extend out to the year 2020. Future population estimates were analyzed to estimate changes in the distributions of vulnerable human populations. Land use change projections were done using a combination of planned highways and road improvements available from state departments of transportation and an urban growth model. Resource extraction projections were completed for timber resources and coal mining. For the timber extractions, we built on an economic model. Mining operations were captured using available maps from state agencies ------- within the region that show areas where future mining operations are permitted. The EDT treats the logging and mining estimates as additional land use changes. Changes in air pollution made use of projections of changes in ozone, particulate matter, sulfur and nitrogen wet deposition made by EPA's Office of Air Quality, Planning, and Standards for the proposed Clear Skies legislation. Results and The EDT provides an integrated assessment of current and future conditions Impact across the mid-Atlantic region. The integration is complete in that it incorporates multiple resources and multiple stressors acting simultaneously, providing indices of environmental condition and vulnerability. Projections to 2020 are intended primarily as a demonstration as to how the approach and methods can be used to identify areas that are expected to undergo significant environmental changes, or that have a high probability of synergistic impacts resulting from cumulative and aggregate impacts from multiple stressors. These areas can be targeted for outreach and/or partnerships with local decision-makers to reduce environmental risks. Areas that are at high risk of additional change may warrant additional monitoring or study to provide an early warning of unacceptable conditions. The interactive portions of the EDT provide insights into how alternative policy or risk management actions might affect the broad picture of environmental conditions. The tool is expected to provide background for decision-making at the state and local levels by providing context for changing conditions and an awareness of the implications of alternative actions. For the general public as well as regional to local decision-makers, this EDT provides the first comprehensive assessment of conditions and vulnerabilities across a broad region, and therefore will serve to raise awareness of known environmental concerns and alternatives. The research represents collaboration among all of ORD's Laboratories and Centers, other federal agencies (USGS, USFS, TV A), and a number of universities (e.g., University of Maryland, Pennsylvania State University, Florida Atlantic University). Examples of recent publications from this study include: Smith, E.R., Tran, L.T., O'Neill, R.V. 2003. Regional Vulnerability Assessment for the mid-Atlantic Region: Evaluation of Integration Methods and Assessment Results. EPA/600-03/082, Oct. 2003. Future Research Next steps in the ReVA program include working directly with regional and state-level decision-makers to identify and explore the implications of alternative risk management options. We also will be refining additional models to look at groundwater supply and estuarine health, as well as improving on some of the statistical integration methods and the overall navigability and accessibility of the toolkit. Work in other EPA regions will serve to test the approach and adapt to changing needs of clients at all Research Collaboration and Research Products ------- levels of decision-making. Contacts for Additional Information Questions and inquiries can be directed to: Elizabeth R. Smith, Ph.D. U.S. EPA, Office of Research and Development National Exposure Research Laboratory MD E243-05 109 T.W. Alexander Drive Research Triangle Park, NC 27711 Phone: 919/541-0620 E-mail: smith.betsy@epa.gov Funding for this project was through the U.S. EPA's Office of Research and Development, National Exposure Research Laboratory, and the work was conducted by the Environmental Sciences Division in collaboration with EPA ORD, other federal agencies, and universities. Contract support for development of the webtool by Waratah Corporation was provided under assistance agreement No. R-82880301 with the Department of Commerce. ------- |