United States Environmental Protection Agency	Office of Research and Development

National Exposure Research Laboratory
Research Abstract

Government Performance Results Act (GPRA) Goal 4
Annual Performance Measure 275

Significant Research Findings:

Decision-support tool for Mid-Atlantic that enables assessment of
impacts associated with alternative land use, air deposition, and
resource extraction scenarios: ReVA's (Regional Vulnerability
Assessment Program's) Web-based Environmental Decision Toolkit

(EDT) - Public Version

Scientific	Decision-makers and the general public lack information about projected future

Problem and	stresses and their potential cumulative impacts. This type of information is useful

Policy Issues	for prioritizing risk management actions and strategic planning, as well as

providing insights into the implications of society's actions. Broad scale drivers of
ecological change (land use, resource extraction, spread of non-indigenous species,
and changes in pollution) provide a backdrop against which decision-makers need
to act. Projections of these changes can be modified to explore implications of
alternative management options.

Research	The EDT represents the culmination of a number of years of research to: 1)

Approach	accumulate and prepare available spatial data for the region, 2) develop

landscape models to predict exposures, 3) develop and evaluate synthesis
methods for spatial data, and 4) forecast major drivers of change for the
region to 2020. All methods and models have been extensively reviewed
and published separately; data from other federal agencies have been
through quality assurance/quality control (QA/QC) procedures. Interactive
sections of the EDT allow users to explore alternative policy, mitigation,
and restoration implications.

To estimate the impacts of forecast changes, the ReVA team combined
projections of land use change, resource extractions (such as logging and
mining activities), changes in air pollution, and spread of non-indigenous
(invasive) species that extend out to the year 2020. Future population
estimates were analyzed to estimate changes in the distributions of
vulnerable human populations. Land use change projections were done
using a combination of planned highways and road improvements available
from state departments of transportation and an urban growth model.
Resource extraction projections were completed for timber resources and
coal mining. For the timber extractions, we built on an economic model.
Mining operations were captured using available maps from state agencies


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within the region that show areas where future mining operations are
permitted. The EDT treats the logging and mining estimates as additional
land use changes. Changes in air pollution made use of projections of
changes in ozone, particulate matter, sulfur and nitrogen wet deposition
made by EPA's Office of Air Quality, Planning, and Standards for the
proposed Clear Skies legislation.

Results and	The EDT provides an integrated assessment of current and future conditions

Impact	across the mid-Atlantic region. The integration is complete in that it

incorporates multiple resources and multiple stressors acting
simultaneously, providing indices of environmental condition and
vulnerability. Projections to 2020 are intended primarily as a
demonstration as to how the approach and methods can be used to identify
areas that are expected to undergo significant environmental changes, or
that have a high probability of synergistic impacts resulting from
cumulative and aggregate impacts from multiple stressors. These areas can
be targeted for outreach and/or partnerships with local decision-makers to
reduce environmental risks. Areas that are at high risk of additional change
may warrant additional monitoring or study to provide an early warning of
unacceptable conditions.

The interactive portions of the EDT provide insights into how alternative
policy or risk management actions might affect the broad picture of
environmental conditions. The tool is expected to provide background for
decision-making at the state and local levels by providing context for
changing conditions and an awareness of the implications of alternative
actions. For the general public as well as regional to local decision-makers,
this EDT provides the first comprehensive assessment of conditions and
vulnerabilities across a broad region, and therefore will serve to raise
awareness of known environmental concerns and alternatives.

The research represents collaboration among all of ORD's Laboratories and
Centers, other federal agencies (USGS, USFS, TV A), and a number of universities
(e.g., University of Maryland, Pennsylvania State University, Florida Atlantic
University).

Examples of recent publications from this study include:

Smith, E.R., Tran, L.T., O'Neill, R.V. 2003. Regional Vulnerability
Assessment for the mid-Atlantic Region: Evaluation of Integration Methods
and Assessment Results. EPA/600-03/082, Oct. 2003.

Future Research Next steps in the ReVA program include working directly with regional and
state-level decision-makers to identify and explore the implications of
alternative risk management options. We also will be refining additional
models to look at groundwater supply and estuarine health, as well as
improving on some of the statistical integration methods and the overall
navigability and accessibility of the toolkit. Work in other EPA regions
will serve to test the approach and adapt to changing needs of clients at all

Research
Collaboration
and Research
Products


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levels of decision-making.

Contacts for

Additional

Information

Questions and inquiries can be directed to:

Elizabeth R. Smith, Ph.D.

U.S. EPA, Office of Research and Development
National Exposure Research Laboratory
MD E243-05

109 T.W. Alexander Drive
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
Phone: 919/541-0620
E-mail: smith.betsy@epa.gov

Funding for this project was through the U.S. EPA's Office of Research and
Development, National Exposure Research Laboratory, and the work was
conducted by the Environmental Sciences Division in collaboration with EPA
ORD, other federal agencies, and universities. Contract support for development
of the webtool by Waratah Corporation was provided under assistance agreement
No. R-82880301 with the Department of Commerce.


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